The Honorable Gina McCarthy 

Administrator 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Washington, DC 20460 

Dear Ms. McCat1hy: 

I am writing in regard to section 211(o)(3) of the Clean Air Act, which requires the 

Energy Infmmation Administration (EIA) to provide the Environmental Protection 

Agency (EPA) with an estimate ofthe volumes of transportation fuel, biomass-based 

diesel, and cellulosic biofuel projected to be sold or introduced into commerce in the 

United States during 2015 and 2016, the calendar years for which a final rule to 

implement the renewable fuel standard (RFS) program is now under consideration. 

EIA publishes estimates of motor gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and ethanol use in the monthly 

Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Results that appear in the September 2015 STEO 

release are summm·ized below (Table 1 ). 

Table 1. Projections for transpot1ation1 fuels sold or introduced into commerce in the 

United States (million barrels per day) 

Liquid Fuels 2015 2016 

Motor gasoline product supplied 9.13 9.13 

Fuel ethanol consumption2 0.90 0.90 

Jet fuel product supplied 1.51 1.51 

Diesel consumption 3.69J 3.77q 

Notes: 1 Estimates are for total product supplied for all uses. 2 Fuel ethanol consumption volumes are contained in motor gasoline product supplied. 3 This includes approximately 130,000 banels per day used by ocean-going vessels. 4 This includes approximately 136,000 banels per day used by ocean-going vessels. 

Sources: EIA, STEO, September 2015. 

EIA cunently estimates cellulosic liquid biofuels for transportation use at 3 million 

gallons in 2015 and 10 million gallons in 2016. These estimates are based on EIA 

analysis of publicly available information (news reports, trade publications, company 

websites), onsite visits and interviews regarding cellulosic liquid biofuel projects at 

various stages of development. EIA staff focused on plants producing transpm1ation 

fuels that are already in operation, as well as those anticipated to begin production in 

2015 and 2016, which are listed in Table 2. Given observed lags between mechanical 

completion and initial commercial production, EIA does not expect plants that have not 

® Prinled h soy Ink on recycled peper 
2013 INEOS Bio Vera Beach, FL Ethanol 

2014 Quad County Galva, IA Ethanol 

2015 A ben goa Hugoton, KS Ethanol 

2015 POET Emmetsburg, lA Ethanol 

2016 DuPont Nevada, lA Ethanol 

The cellulosic biofuel supply estimates in this letter do not take into account the EPA 

direct rule expanding the definition of cellulosic biofuels to include renewable heating 

oil. It also does not take into account the EPA Pathway II rule that includes biogas from 

landfills as a cellulosic biofuels. EIA does not track biogas, which would likely displace 

natural gas rather than petroleum use, in its petroleum data and analysis program. 

Turning to biomass-based diesel, EIA data indicates that sufficient domestic production 

capacity exists to produce 1. 7 and 1. 8 billion gallons in 2015 and 2016, respectively, as 

called for in EPA's most recent proposed rulemaking. The most significant recent 

development affecting the market for biomass-based diesel is the actual and forecast 

decline in petroleum-based diesel prices for 2015 and 2016 relative to recent years, which 

has the effect of increasing the cost premium of biodiesel over petroleum-based diesel 

relative to the situation in recent years for which RFS requirements have been 

promulgated. 

The forecasts presented above reflect EIA' s best judgment based on 'cunently available 

information, but they are inherently uncertain. To illustrate these uncertainties, it is 

useful to consider changes in prior forecasts. In August 2014, for example, EIA provided 

EPA with fuel consumption forecasts for 2014 to suppmt consideration RFS rule for 

calendar year 2014. Relative to those forecasts, current data for 2014 reflect increases of 

110,000 barrels per day ( 1.2%) for motor gasoline product supplied, 7,000 banels per day 

(0.8%) for fuel ethanol consumption, and 30,000 barrels per day (2.1 %) for jet fuel 

product supplied. 

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cc: Ms. Janet McCabe 

Administration 

U.S. Energy Information Administration 

Acting Assistant Administrator for Air and Radiation 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Mr. Christopher Grundler 

Director, Office of Transportation Air Quality 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

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