Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States 

and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands

Open-File Report 2015–1001

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
Cover image:

Aerial photograph of waves breaking on the fringing reef off Ennuebing Island, Kwajalein Atoll, Republic of 

the Marshall Islands
Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States 

and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands

By Curt D. Storlazzi, James B. Shope, Li H. Erikson, Christie A. Hegermiller, and Patrick L. Barnard

Open-File Report 2015-1001

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

SALLY JEWELL, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Suzette M. Kimball, Acting Director 

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015

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Suggested citation:

Storlazzi, C.D., Shope, J.B., Erikson, L.H., Hegermiller, C.A., and Barnard, P.L., 2015, Future wave and 

wind projections for United States and United States-affiliated Pacific Islands: U.S. Geological Survey 

Open-File Report 2015–1001, 426 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/ofr20151001.

ISSN 2331–1258 (online)
iii

Contents

Abstract ........................................................................................................................................................................................... 1

Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................................... 2

Project Objectives ....................................................................................................................................................................... 3

Study Area................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Methods........................................................................................................................................................................................... 4

Global Climate Model Input Data ................................................................................................................................................ 4

WAVEWATCH-III Wave Modeling............................................................................................................................................... 5

Wave Parameter Statistics .......................................................................................................................................................... 6

Model Skill................................................................................................................................................................................... 7

Results ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 8

Model Skill................................................................................................................................................................................... 8

Regional Results ....................................................................................................................................................................... 10

Wave Climate Parameter Changes....................................................................................................................................... 10

The Western Region ......................................................................................................................................................... 10

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 10

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 12

Marianas Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 13

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 13

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 15

Central Region .................................................................................................................................................................. 16

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 16

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 18

Northeast Region .............................................................................................................................................................. 20

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 20

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 22

Eastern Equatorial Region ................................................................................................................................................ 24

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 24

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 26

Southern Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 27

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 27

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 29

Wind Climate Parameter Changes........................................................................................................................................ 30

Western Region................................................................................................................................................................. 30

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 30

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 31

Marianas Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 32

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 32

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 34

Central Region .................................................................................................................................................................. 35

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 35

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 37
iv

Northeast Region .............................................................................................................................................................. 39

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 39

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 40

Eastern Equatorial Region ................................................................................................................................................ 42

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 42

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 43

Southern Region ............................................................................................................................................................... 44

Mid-Century: 2026–2045............................................................................................................................................... 44

End-Century: 2081–2100 .............................................................................................................................................. 45

Discussion..................................................................................................................................................................................... 46

Spatial and Temporal Hs and Ua Trends.................................................................................................................................... 47

Significant Wave Heights ...................................................................................................................................................... 47

Mid-Century: 2026–2045................................................................................................................................................... 47

End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 47

Mean Wind Speeds ............................................................................................................................................................... 48

Mid-Century: 2026–2045................................................................................................................................................... 48

End-century: 2081–2100................................................................................................................................................... 48

Spatial and Temporal Tp, Dp, and Uθ Trends............................................................................................................................. 49

Peak Wave Periods............................................................................................................................................................... 49

Mid-Century: 2026–2045................................................................................................................................................... 49

End Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 49

Mean Wave Directions .......................................................................................................................................................... 49

Mid-Century: 2026–2045................................................................................................................................................... 49

End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 50

Mean Wind Directions ........................................................................................................................................................... 51

Mid-Century: 2026–2045................................................................................................................................................... 51

End-Century: 2081–2100 .................................................................................................................................................. 51

Implications ............................................................................................................................................................................... 51

Conclusions................................................................................................................................................................................... 53

Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................................................................... 54

Additional Digital Information......................................................................................................................................................... 54

Direct Contact Information............................................................................................................................................................. 54

References Cited........................................................................................................................................................................... 55

Appendix A. Wave Height, Wave Period, and Wave Direction Statistics .................................................................................... 227

Appendix B. Wind Speed and Wind Direction Statistics.............................................................................................................. 277

Appendix C. Monthly Trends in Wave Height.............................................................................................................................. 327

Appendix D. Monthly Trends in Wind Speeds ............................................................................................................................. 377
v

Tables

1. Table of names and locations of WAVEWATCH III model points within the mid-to-western tropical Pacific 

Ocean .......................................................................................................................................................................57

 2. List of Global Climate Models used, wave model used, and the model resolutions.....................................................57

 3. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Molokai point 

and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands 

by months .................................................................................................................................................................57

 4. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Big Island of 

Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the 

Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................59

 5. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Kauai point 

and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands 

by months. ................................................................................................................................................................59

 6. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at 

the Molokai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the 

Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................60

 7. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at 

the Big Island of Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations 

throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months. ............................................................................................................60

 8. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in meters, at 

the Kauai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the 

Hawaiian Islands by months. ....................................................................................................................................61

Figures 

 1. Map showing the locations of the 25 modeled points within the tropical Pacific Ocean used in this study.................62

 2. Map showing the locations of selected National Data Buoy Center stations, in purple, and modeled points, 

in red, within in the Hawaiian Island Chain. ..............................................................................................................63

 3. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) 

Molokai point significant wave heights (Hs) in meters, from each GCM-driven WW3 model run with the 

observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station.....................................................................64

 4. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) Big 

Island of Hawaii point significant wave heights (Hs) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 model run 

with the observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. ......................................................65

 5. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-2005) Kauai 

point significant wave heights (Hs) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 model run with the observed 

historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. ...................................................................................66

 6. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario................................................................................................................................67

 7. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................68
vi

 8. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario................................................................................................................................69

 9. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..........................................................................................................................70

10. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................71

11. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................72

12. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario.............................................................73

13. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................74

14. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario................................................................................................................................75

15. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................76

16. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario................................................................................................................................77

17. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..........................................................................................................................78

18. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................79

19. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................80

20. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.............................................................81

21. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values 

during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................82

22. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario................................................................................................................................83
vii

23. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................84

24. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario................................................................................................................................85

25. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..........................................................................................................................86

26. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................87

27. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................88

28. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario.............................................................89

29. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................90

30. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario................................................................................................................................91

31. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................92

32. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters. .....................................................................................93

33. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant wave 

height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..........................................................................................................................94

34. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................95

35. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................96

36. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.............................................................97
viii

37. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights and 

variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values 

during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................98

38. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ............................................................................................................................................99

39. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................100

40. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................101

41. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................102

42. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................103

43. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................104

44. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................105

45. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................106

46. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................107

47. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................108

48. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................109

49. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................110

50. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................111
ix

51. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................112

52. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................113

53. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................114

54. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................115

55. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................116

56. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario.. ...................................................................................................................................................117

57. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................118

58. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................119

59. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................120

60. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................121

61. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................122

62. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................123

63. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................124
x

64. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................125

65. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave period for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................126

66. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................127

67. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................128

68. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................129

69. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................130

70. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................131

71. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario................................132

72. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .................................133

73. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............134

74. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................135

75. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................136

76. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................137
xi

77. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................138

78. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................139

79. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario................................140

80. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .................................141

81. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .............142

82. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................143

83. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................144

84. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario.. ...................................................................................................................................................145

85. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................146

86. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................147

87. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario................................148

88. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .................................149

89. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............150

90. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 
xii

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................151

91. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................152

92. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................153

93. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................154

94. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................155

95. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario................................156

96. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.. ................................157

97. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and the 

standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .............158

98. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. ..........................................................................................................................................159

99. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................160

100. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. ....................................................................................................................................................161

101. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for 

the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................162

102. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................163

103. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............164
xiii

104. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...........165

105. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................166

106. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the DecemberFebruary season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..................................................................................167

107. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May 

season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario.................................................................................................168

108. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August 

season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................................................................169

109. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the SeptemberNovember season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................................170

110. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................171

111. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.. ............172

112. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...........173

113. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2026–

2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................174

114. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the DecemberFebruary season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..................................................................................175

115. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May 

season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.. ...............................................................................................176

116. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August 

season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................177

117. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the SeptemberNovember season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................................178

118. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................179

119. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. .............180

120. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ...........181
xiv

121. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................182

122. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the DecemberFebruary season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..................................................................................183

123. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May 

season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................184

124. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August 

season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................185

125. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the SeptemberNovember season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................................186

126. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................187

127. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. .............188

128. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ...........189

129. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the years 2081–

2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................190

130. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the DecemberFebruary season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..................................................................................191

131. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May 

season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................192

132. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August 

season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ................................................................................................193

133. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and variance in the 

top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the SeptemberNovember season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ..............................................................................194

134. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario........................................................................................................................195

135. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................196

136. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................197
xv

137. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................198

138. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................199

139. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ......................200

140. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ....................201

141. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................202

142. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario........................................................................................................................203

143. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................204

144. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................205

145. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................206

146. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................207

147. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ......................208

148. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ....................209

149. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 

from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................210

150. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario........................................................................................................................211
xvi

151. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................212

152. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................213

153. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................214

154. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 

from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................215

155. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 

from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ......................216

156. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 

from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. ....................217

157. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 

from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................218

158. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario........................................................................................................................219

159. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................220

160. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................................221

161. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario..............................................................................................................222

162. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 

from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................223

163. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 

from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario.. .....................224

164. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 

from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. ....................225

165. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 
xvii

from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. .................................................................................................................................................................226

Appendixes

Appendix A. Wave Height, Wave Period, and Wave Direction Statistics

 A1. Table showing American Samoa monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction. ..............................................................................................227

 A2. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the American Samoa location..............228

 A3. Table showing Kauai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................229

 A4. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kauai location................................230

 A5. Table showing Big Island of Hawaii monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction. ..............................................................................................231

 A6. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Big Island of Hawaii 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................232

 A7. Table showing Midway monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................233

 A8. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Midway location.............................234

 A9. Table showing Chuuk monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................235

A10. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Chuuk location...............................236

A11. Table showing Saipan monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................237

A12. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Saipan location..............................238

A13. Table showing Asuncion monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................239

A14. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Asuncion location. .........................240

A15. Table showing Kosrae monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................241

A16. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kosrae location..............................242

A17. Table showing Palau monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................243

A18. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palau location................................244
xviii

A19. Table showing Pohnpei monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................245

A20. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Pohnpei location............................246

A21. Table showing Yap monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak wave 

period, and peak wave direction. ............................................................................................................................247

A22. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Yap location...................................248

A23. Table showing Majuro monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................249

A24. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Majuro location. .............................250

A25. Table showing Enewetak monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................251

A26. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Enewetak location. ........................252

A27. Table showing Bikini monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................253

A28. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Bikini location.................................254

A29. Table showing Molokai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................255

A30. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Molokai location.............................256

A31. Table showing Northwest Hawaiian Islands monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant 

wave height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction. .....................................................................................257

A32. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................258

A33. Table showing Guam monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................259

A34. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Guam location. ..............................260

A35. Table showing Kwajalein monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................261

A36. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kwajalein location..........................262

A37. Table showing Wake monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................263

A38. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Wake location................................264

A39. Table showing Johnston Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, 

peak wave period, and peak wave direction. ..........................................................................................................265

A40. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Johnston Atoll location...................266
xix

A41. Table showing Kingman Reef monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, 

peak wave period, and peak wave direction. ..........................................................................................................267

A42. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kingman Reef location. .................268

A43. Table showing Palmyra monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................269

A44. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palmyra location............................270

A45. Table showing Rose Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................271

A46. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Rose Atoll location.........................272

A47. Table showing Howland monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................273

A48. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Howland location. ..........................274

A49. Table showing Jarvis monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave height, peak 

wave period, and peak wave direction....................................................................................................................275

A50. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Jarvis location................................276

Appendix B. Wind Speed and Wind Direction Statistics

B1. Table showing American Samoa monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction................................................................................................................................................277

B2. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the American Samoa location...............................278

B3. Table showing Kauai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................279

B4. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kauai location. ................................................280

B5. Table showing Big Island of Hawaii monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction................................................................................................................................................281

B6. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Big Island of Hawaii location...........................282

B7. Table showing Midway monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................283

B8. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Midway location. .............................................284

B9. Table showing Chuuk monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................285

B10. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Chuuk location. ...............................................286

B11. Table showing Saipan monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................287
xx

B12. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Saipan location. ..............................................288

B13. Table showing Asuncion monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................289

B14. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Asuncion location............................................290

B15. Table showing Kosrae monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................291

B16. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kosrae location...............................................292

B17. Table showing Palau monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................293

B18. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palau location. ................................................294

B19. Table showing Pohnpei monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................295

B20. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Pohnpei location. ............................................296

B21. Table showing Yap monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................297

B22. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Yap location....................................................298

B23. Table showing Majuro monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................299

B24. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Majuro location. ..............................................300

B25. Table showing Enewetak monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................301

B26. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Enewetak location...........................................302

B27. Table showing Bikini monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................303

B28. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Bikini location..................................................304

B29. Table showing Molokai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................305

B30. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Molokai location..............................................306

B31. Table showing Northwest Hawaiian Islands monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed 

and mean wind direction.........................................................................................................................................307

B32. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands location. .............308

B33. Table showing Guam monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................309

B34. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Guam location.................................................310
xxi

B35. Table showing Kwajalein monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................311

B36. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kwajalein location. ..........................................312

B37. Table showing Wake monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................313

B38. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Wake location. ................................................314

B39. Table showing Johnston Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean 

wind direction..........................................................................................................................................................315

B40. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Johnston Atoll location....................................316

B41. Table showing Kingman Reef monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean 

wind direction..........................................................................................................................................................317

B42. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kingman Reef location....................................318

B43. Table showing Palmyra monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................319

B44. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palmyra location. ............................................320

B45. Table showing Rose Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................321

B46. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Rose Atoll location. .........................................322

B47. Table showing Howland monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................323

B48. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Howland location. ...........................................324

B49. Table showing Jarvis monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean wind 

direction. .................................................................................................................................................................325

B50. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast scenarios, 

including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Jarvis location.................................................326

Appendix C. Monthly Trends in Wave Heights

C1. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the American Samoa 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................327

C2. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the American Samoa location. ................................................................................................................................328

C3. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Kauai location. ...................329

C4. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Kauai location. ..................................................................................................................................................330

C5. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Big Island of Hawaii 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................331

C6. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Big Island of Hawaii location. ............................................................................................................................332
xxii

C7. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Midway location. ................333

C8. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Midway location. ...............................................................................................................................................334

C9. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Chuuk location. ..................335

C10. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Chuuk location. .................................................................................................................................................336

C11. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Saipan location.. ................337

C12. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Saipan location. ................................................................................................................................................338

C13. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Asuncion location...............339

C14. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Asuncion location..............................................................................................................................................340

C15. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Kosrae location. .................341

C16. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Kosrae location. ................................................................................................................................................342

C17. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Palau location. ...................343

C18. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Palau location. ..................................................................................................................................................344

C19. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Pohnpei location. ...............345

C20. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Pohnpei location.. .............................................................................................................................................346

C21. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Yap location.......................347

C22. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Yap location. .....................................................................................................................................................348

C23. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Majuro location. .................349

C24. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Majuro location..................................................................................................................................................350

C25. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Enewetak location..............351

C26. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Enewetak location.............................................................................................................................................352

C27. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Bikini location.....................353

C28. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Bikini location....................................................................................................................................................354

C29. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Molokai location.................355

C30. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Molokai location. ...............................................................................................................................................356

C31. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands location. ......................................................................................................................................................357

C32. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Northwest Hawaiian Islands location. ...............................................................................................................358

C33. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Guam location....................359

C34. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Guam location...................................................................................................................................................360

C35. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Kwajalein location. .............361
xxiii

C36. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Kwajalein location. ............................................................................................................................................362

C37. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Wake location.. ..................363

C38. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Wake location. ..................................................................................................................................................364

C39. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Johnston Atoll 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................365

C40. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Johnston Atoll location......................................................................................................................................366

C41. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Kingman Reef 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................367

C42. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Kingman Reef location......................................................................................................................................368

C43. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Palmyra Atoll 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................369

C44. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Palmyra Atoll location. ......................................................................................................................................370

C45. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Rose Atoll location. ............371

C46. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Rose Atoll location. ...........................................................................................................................................372

C47. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Howland location. ..............373

C48. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Howland location...............................................................................................................................................374

C49. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Jarvis location. ...................375

C50. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs), in meters, at 

the Jarvis location. ..................................................................................................................................................376

Appendix D. Monthly Trends in Wind Speeds

D1. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the American Samoa 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................377

D2. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the American 

Samoa location. ......................................................................................................................................................378

D3. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kauai location. .........................379

D4. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Kauai 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................380

D5. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Big Island of Hawaii 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................381

D6. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Big Island of 

Hawaii location........................................................................................................................................................382

D7. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Midway location........................383

D8. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Midway 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................384

D9. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Chuuk location. ........................385
xxiv

D10. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Chuuk 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................386

D11. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Saipan location.........................387

D12. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Saipan 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................388

D13. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Asuncion location.....................389

D14. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Asuncion 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................390

D15. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kosrae location. .......................391

D16. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Kosrae 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................392

D17. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Palau location. .........................393

D18. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Palau 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................394

D19. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Pohnpei location.......................395

D20. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Pohnpei 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................396

D21. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Yap location. ............................397

D22. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Yap location. .........398

D23. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Majuro location.........................399

D24. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Majuro 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................400

D25. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Enewetak location....................401

D26. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Enewetak 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................402

D27. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Bikini location. ..........................403

D28. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Bikini 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................404

D29. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Molokai location. ......................405

D30. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Molokai 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................406

D31. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands location. ......................................................................................................................................................407

D32. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Northwest 

Hawaiian Islands location. ......................................................................................................................................408

D33. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Guam location..........................409

D34. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Guam 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................410

D35. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kwajalein location. ...................411

D36. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Kwajalein 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................412

D37. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Wake location...........................413

D38. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Wake 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................414

D39. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Johnston Atoll location. ............415
xxv

D40. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Johnston 

Atoll location............................................................................................................................................................416

D41. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kingman Reef location. ............417

D42. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Kingman 

Reef location...........................................................................................................................................................418

D43. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Palmyra Atoll location...............419

D44. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Palmyra 

Atoll location............................................................................................................................................................420

D45. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Rose Atoll location. ..................421

D46. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Rose Atoll 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................422

D47. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Howland location......................423

D48. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Howland 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................424

D49. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Jarvis location. .........................425

D50. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the Jarvis 

location. ..................................................................................................................................................................426
xxvi

Abbreviations

AORI Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo

BCC Beijing Climate Center, China

CDF cumulative density function

CMIP Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project

Dp mean wave direction

DBDB2 Digital Bathymetric Data Base

DJF December to February time period

DOD U.S. Department of Defense

DOI U.S. Department of the Interior

GCM global climate model

GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA 

GIS geographic information system

GPD generalized Pareto distribution

GSHHS Global Self-consistent Hierarchical High-resolution Geography Database

Hs significant wave height

INMCM Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Russia) climate model

JAMSTEC Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology

JJA June to August time period

MAE mean absolute error

MAM March to May time period

MIROC Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate

NDBC National Data Buoy Center

NGDC National Geophysical Data Center

NIES National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

NRL Naval Research Laboratory
xxvii

nVar normalized variance

NWW3 a near-global domain for the wave model

Rv return value

RCP representative concentration pathways

SON September to November time period

SRES Special Report on Emission Scenarios

SWAN Simulating WAves Nearshore, a wave model

Tp peak wave period

Ua wind speed

Uθ wind direction

WTP western tropical Pacific

WW3 WAVEWATCH–III wave model
Future Wave and Wind Projections for United States 

and United States-Affiliated Pacific Islands 

By Curt D. Storlazzi1, James B. Shope2, Li H. Erikson1, Christie A. Hegermiller2, and Patrick L. Barnard1

Abstract

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change 

are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology 

and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal 

infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the 

islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind 

parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model 

Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 

4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, 

respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global 

WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 

islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 

(mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show 

some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, 

defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled 

within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of 

the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central 

region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 

21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave 

periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and JuneAugust seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the 

International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study 

area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease throughout the study area during other seasons. Extreme 

wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30° 

clockwise rotation from primarily west to northwest. September-November RCP4.5 extreme mean 

wave directions rotate counterclockwise by approximately 30 to 45° in equatorial Micronesia; 

September-November RCP8.5 extreme mean wave directions within equatorial Micronesia rotate 

 

1

U.S. Geological Survey.

2

University of California at Santa Cruz.
2

clockwise by approximately 20 to 30°. Extreme wind speeds decreased within both scenarios, 

with the largest decreases occurring in the September-November season. Extreme wind directions 

under RCP4.5 rotated clockwise by more than 60° in equatorial Micronesia during the SeptemberNovember season and by approximately 30° during June-August. RCP8.5 extreme wind directions 

rotated counterclockwise during September-November within the same region by 30 to 50° and 

clockwise by 30 to 40° at one island. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two 

different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude and extent of the trends generally 

greater for the higher (RCP8.5) scenario.

Introduction

The oceanographic processes that disturb coasts and insular shelves include the actions of 

surface waves, internal waves, and currents (tidal, density, wave-driven, wind-driven, and 

geostrophic). The Pacific Ocean can generate extremely large ocean surface waves, and the 

resulting near-bed wave-orbital velocities on insular shelves are generally much larger than 

velocities due to currents and internal waves (see, for example, Storlazzi and Reid, 2010). 

Although a few studies have investigated the wave climate in Hawaii (for example, Vitousek and 

Fletcher, 2008; Hoeke and others, 2011), there is little information on the wind and wave climate 

for most of the western Pacific Ocean because of a lack of observational platforms (such as 

National Data Buoy Center buoys). Whereas scientific understanding of the dominant processes 

controlling coastal morphology and coastal and marine ecosystem structure on islands has 

improved over the past decade, our understanding of the linkages between these factors and 

variations in the wave climate across the Pacific and U.S.-managed assets is limited.

Furthermore, the influence of global climate change on wind and wave conditions is not 

well understood. Stationary statistical approaches (such as return values) have typically been used 

to predict future extreme and mean wind and wave conditions, but with the changing climate this 

may not be a valid approach. Although some nonstationary statistical approaches (for example, 

nonstationary generalized extreme values) may sufficiently capture the variations and changes, 

recent work seems to point in the direction that the current climate alone cannot be used to 

estimate future conditions. It has been shown that calculated return values from different decades 

are not compatible with each other in the North Pacific (for example, Caires and others, 2006) and 

that under different climate scenarios for the 21st century, the rate of projected future wave height 

changes is not constant and depends on variations in the greenhouse-gas forcings (see, for 

example, Wang and Swail, 2006). Applying downscaling methods, such as making causal 

relations between winds and sea-level pressures with wave heights, may be appropriate for areas 

of the Atlantic and other smaller water bodies, but for the Pacific Ocean, where swell of periods in 

excess of 15 seconds generated by very distant storms is of concern, it is more difficult to make 

such empirical relations. An alternative option is then to obtain wave conditions through 

analytical or numerical wave models forced with projected climate conditions from global climate 

models (GCMs).
3

Some work has been done to estimate future wave conditions in the Pacific using wave 

models and projected winds from GCMs (for example, Cayan and others, 2008; Mori and others, 

2010; Hemer and others, 2013). However, the data are sparse and not freely available for trendand region-specific analysis. Furthermore, the recent and continued update of GCM outputs 

warranted the development of a new mean and extreme wave climatology for U.S. assets in the 

Pacific Basin. This climatology is important because wave- and wind-driven processes drive 

inundation (for example, Stockdon and others, 2006) that results in coastal erosion and damage to 

infrastructure and fresh-water supplies (for example, in the Federated States of Micronesia in 

2008; Fletcher and Richmond, 2010) and can damage natural resources and kill U.S.-Federally 

protected species (for example, in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands in January and February 

2011; unpublished data). Such impacts may only be exacerbated in the future with projected 

trends in sea-level rise (for example, Storlazzi and others, 2011). Furthermore, numerical 

modeling efforts have shown how wave energy constrains marine species’ distribution in the 

Pacific Ocean (for example, Storlazzi and others, 2005). Information on potential changes in wind 

and wave climate under future global climate change scenarios is therefore crucial to 

understanding not only the sustainability of existing infrastructure, natural, and cultural resources, 

but also planning for future investments in infrastructure and the viability of coastal-related 

economic activities such as fishing and tourism.

Project Objectives

The goal of this effort was to provide hourly data and statistical measures (mean and mean 

of top 5 percent values) of wave height, wave period, wave direction, wind speed, and wind 

direction for Department of the Interior (DOI)- and Department of Defense (DOD)-managed 

assets in the Pacific Ocean for the historical (1976–2005) time period and future time periods (out 

to the year 2100). The goal was accomplished by forcing the WAVEWATCH-III numerical wave 

model with winds computed by global climate models (GCMs) for two climate scenarios, 

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (see section on “Methods” for 

further descriptions). Resulting model data are summarized with wave and wind statistics at 25 

islands (table 1) comprising U.S. National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, U.S. National 

Monuments, areas managed by the U.S. Office of Insular Affairs, and U.S. Department of 

Defense facilities.

The data presented herein provide information required for adaptive conservation planning 

by providing a better understanding of potential climate change impacts. This effort investigated 

trends and variability, on an island and archipelago scale, of geophysical variables that are 

expected to respond to global-scale forcing. Furthermore, the data generated by this effort are 

expected to be crucial in projecting future transient sea level extremes on coasts and small islands, 

because winds and waves are the key processes driving extreme water levels and inundation.
4

Study Area

Wave and wind statistics were generated for 25 locations across the western tropical 

Pacific (WTP) at a number of United States territories and U.S.-affiliated islands (fig. 1). The 

modeled area encompasses a number of varying regions subject to varying climates. The trade 

winds dominate in the region, blowing from the east. However, despite the main winds being the 

trades, the stronger winds, and thus the larger waves, result from storm systems within the region. 

The northeast quadrant of the study area receives strong winds and large waves from higher 

latitude storms during the boreal winter (Semedo and others, 2011). Winds in the rest of the 

eastern half of the study area remain dominated by the trade winds, though larger swell waves are 

likely due to storms from the South Pacific and Southern Ocean. The western half of the study 

area’s extreme winds and waves are dominated by typhoons, which are generated in the center of 

the region and proceed to the west, and by extratropical cyclones from the North Pacific (Mori 

and others, 2010). Therefore, islands such as Guam receive larger, more destructive waves 

because it is subject to larger typhoons. However, this study focused primarily on swell waves 

from extratropical regions and how they may change in the future. These swell waves, while 

likely smaller than typhoon-generated waves, still pose a hazard to the western Pacific islands 

throughout the 21st century.

Methods

Global Climate Model Input Data

A dynamical downscaling (Wang and others, 2009) approach was used to generate recent 

and future wave climates for the study areas by using updated climate scenarios and models as 

input for the numerical wave model WAVEWATCH-III (WW3; Tolman, 2009). For the purpose 

of assessing recent past and projected wave climates, a suite of atmosphere-ocean coupled GCM 

simulations of near-surface (10-m height) wind fields were chosen on the basis of the availability 

of (1) “historical” runs for evaluation of how realistic the models are in simulating the recent past, 

(2) projections out to the year 2100, (3) GCM simulations completed by spring 2012, and (4) 

frequency of synoptic (nonaveraged) outputs (3-hr interval). Based on these requirements, the 

following set of experiments from four modeling centers were chosen: (a) Beijing Climate Center, 

Meteorological Administration, China, model BCC-CSM1.1; (b) Institute for Numerical 

Mathematics, Russia, model INM-CM4; (c) Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate—

AOEI, NIES, JAMSTEC, Japan, model MIROC5; and (d) Geophysical Fluid Dynamics 

Laboratory, United States, GFDL-ESM2M. These GCM model outputs were generated in support 

of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5; World Climate Research 

Programme, 2013). GCM model resolutions are described in table 2. CMIP5 was proposed, 

conceived, and developed by the climate modeling community with the intent of providing a 

framework for coordinated climate change experiments conducted at various institutions around 

the globe (Taylor and others, 2009). Although hundreds of model simulations are available as part 

of this effort, this work focused on a few select simulations, as described above.
5

Future emission scenarios differed slightly from past CMIP work, in which SRES 

scenarios (named after their publication “Special Report on Emission Scenarios”) provided six 

alternative scenarios based on narrative storylines (for example, van Vuuren and others, 2011). 

The “new” scenarios or so-called “representative concentration pathways” (RCPs) are labeled 

according to the approximate target radiative forcing at year 2100 (for example, RCP4.5 identifies 

a concentration pathway that approximately results in a radiative forcing of 4.5 watts per square 

meter (W/m2) by year 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions). In this study, GCM results from 

two climate scenarios were used, one representing a medium mitigation (RCP4.5; Thomson and 

others, 2011) and one a high-emissions scenario of 8.5 W/m2 by year 2100 (RCP8.5; Riahi and 

others, 2010). Projections for scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are available for two separate time 

periods in the 21st century: years 2026–2045 and 2085–2100, as prescribed by the CMIP5 

modeling framework. The historical (1976–2005) simulations were used to assess model skill and 

determine the magnitude of change in the future scenarios.

WAVEWATCH-III Wave Modeling

To reduce uncertainty in model variability, wind speed and direction from the four 

different GCMs were used as boundary conditions to the third-generation physics-based 

WAVEWATCH-III (WW3, ver. 3.14, Tolman, 2009) numerical wave model. WW3 solves the 

random phase spectral action density balance equation for wave number-direction spectra. The 

implicit assumption of this equation is that properties of the medium (water depth and current) as 

well as the wave field itself vary on time and space scales that are much larger than the variation 

scales of a single wave. The model was implemented over a near-global domain (NWW3, latitude 

80°S to 80°N) at a 1° x 1.25° spatial resolution. Bathymetry and shoreline positions were 

populated with the Naval Research Laboratory’s (NRL) Digital Bathymetric Data Base (DBDB2) 

version 3.0 (National Research Laboratory, 2013) and the National Geophysical Data Center’s 

(NGDC) Global Self-consistent Hierarchical High-resolution Geography Database (GSHHS) 

version 2.2.2 (National Geophysical Data Center, 2013), respectively. Wave spectra were 

computed at a directional resolution of 15° and using 25 frequency bands ranging nonlinearly 

from 0.04 to 0.50 Hz. Parameterizations of physical processes (source terms) include wave growth 

and decay due to the actions of wind, nonlinear resonant interactions, dissipation, bottom friction, 

surf-breaking (for example, depth-induced breaking) and scattering due to wave-bottom 

interactions.

Map files of wave heights, periods, and directions and wind speeds and directions were 

saved on a daily basis, while time series of wind and wave parameters at deep-water observation 

(output) points in the model were saved on a 3-hourly and hourly basis, respectively. WW3 was 

run at a global resolution scale to capture the Pacific Ocean in a computationally efficient manner 

(table 1). A few output points (coincident with NDBC measurement buoys) were used for 

model/measurement comparisons; comparisons were done in a probabilistic sense (for example, 

cumulative density functions), not in a time-series sense, as the goal was to understand the overall 

climate and not the details of potential future modeled storm events, which were not possible 
6

without major downscaling of winds. The deep-water output points are intended to serve as points 

for analysis of wave climate trends, which can then be used as inputs to nearshore wave models 

(for example, Deltares’ SWAN) investigating impacts to infrastructure, natural, and cultural 

resources.

Wave Parameter Statistics

Modeled output data comprised (1) significant wave height (Hs), peak wave period (Tp), 

and mean wave direction (Dp) values saved at hourly intervals and (2) wind speed (Ua) and wind 

direction (Uθ) values saved at 3-hour intervals. Hs is defined as 4 times the standard deviation of 

the wave displacement time series during a modeled time period, which approximates the mean of 

the top third of measured wave heights within that period, with units in meters (m). Tp is defined 

as the wave period with the largest energy within a modeled timestep, with units of seconds (s). 

Ua units are in meters per second (m/s). Dp and Uθ values are defined within this report as the 

direction in degrees clockwise from North (°) in which the waves and winds are travelling.

Outputs from each GCM-driven WW3 model run were combined into a multimodel ensemble. An 

ensemble of models has been shown to more accurately represent observed data than any one 

model for dynamic GCMs and regional climate models (RCMs) with similar parameters (Donat 

and others, 2010).

Averages and variances (or standard deviations) for monthly and seasonal extreme Hs

(σHH

2 ), Tp (σTT2 ), Dp (σD ), Ua (σUU2 ), and Uθ (σUU) values were calculated for hindcast, mid-century, 

and end-century periods, with averages for each RCP emission scenario being calculated for the 

latter two periods. Angular standard deviation values were calculated for wave directional data 

because the standard deviation values produced were more easily interpretable compared to 

variances, which, when calculated, produced an extremely large range to visualize, as the angular 

standard deviation values were often more than 10°, resulting in variances that ranged from 100 to 

more than 1,000 variance being the square of the standard deviation. Variance values for other 

variables were more comparable with one another. The process was repeated for extreme Hs

scenarios, which use the variables relating to the the mean of the top 5 percent of Hs or Ua timeseries values modeled within each modeled time period. For example, extreme Hs values are 

calculated as the mean of the top 5 percent of Hs values within a time period, whereas extreme Tp

values are defined as the mean of the Tp values associated with the top 5 percent of Hs values 

within a given time period. Changes in bulk parameters were derived by subtracting hindcast 

means from forecast averages. The climate variables for the December-February (DJF), MarchMay (MAM), June-August (JJA), and September–November (SON) seasons were mapped using 

the ArcGIS geographic information systems software developed by the Environmental Systems 

Research Institute with the expectation that the largest or most important changes in Hs would 

occur during those seasons. For example, Hs during the northern hemisphere winter in Hawaii is 

typically larger than during other seasons (Vitousek and Fletcher, 2008). Therefore, changes in 
7

these wave heights may have a stronger impact on overtopping and erosional events as witnessed 

throughout the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2009 (Hoeke and others. 2013).

Return values (Rv) for each modeled point for Hs and Ua were generated for 2-, 5-, 10-, 20-

, 50-, and 100-year events for the hindcast, RCP4.5 projections, and RCP8.5 projections following 

the methods of Caires and Sterl (2005) and Caires and others (2006). The ensemble Hs and Ua data 

were declustered so that the largest events were selected, but consecutive exceedances of 

individual storms were not selected. Individual events were declustered to be at least 3 days apart, 

to ensure that each selected large wave or wind event was from a separate storm. The largest 

declustered 150 events (30 years of 5 events per year on average) from the hindcast ensemble and 

declustered 100 events (20 years of 5 events per year on average) from each forecast ensemble 

were fitted to a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), which can be used approximate Hs and Ua

extrema. The GPD method is a peak-over-threshold method. In each calculation, the threshold 

value selected was the minimum value of the selected declustered extreme modeled events. Once 

fitted, the Rv trend is extrapolated from the 20 or 30 years of data modeled to a 100-year event. 

Therefore, it is possible to estimate an Rv for a 100-year event without 100 years of data, contrary 

to more traditional methods. The 95-percent confidence intervals of Rv values were also calculated

at each point.

Model Skill

Ensemble model hindcasts (1976–2005) were compared to buoy measurements from the 

National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) platforms in the Hawaiian Island Chain for the same period 

to evaluate how well the model approximated observed climate trends (National Data Buoy 

Center, 2013). The Pacific Ocean historical buoy dataset is largely scattered; until recently, only a 

small areal extent of the ocean basin was buoyed. Only the Hawaiian Island Chain has observation 

platforms with sufficiently long datasets that corresponded to selected island locations of Molokai, 

Kauai, and the Big Island; these are NDBC stations 51001, 51002, 51003, and 51004 (fig. 2). The 

selected buoys collected deep-water wave and meteorological measurements at hourly intervals. 

This dataset, however, was limited to Hs, Tp, Ua, and Uθ, with Dp not recorded. The 

WAVEWATCH-III model resolution limited the spatial overlap of output points and buoy 

locations. Therefore, model output points were compared to historical buoy measurements instead 

of comparing virtual buoy output to physical buoys. The model resolution of 1.25° latitude and

1.00° longitude limited the ability to place an output point coincident to physical buoy locations.

Model performance was assessed by the mean absolute error (MAE) and normalized 

variance (nVar) calculated from hindcasted and observed values of Hs. The MAE is a good 

indication of model accuracy when model and observed values are at approximately the same 

scale (Hyndman and Koehler, 2006). The MAE is given by:

MMM = 1

N�|oooi − m mi|

N

i=1
8

where obsi = the observed value at the i

th value and modi = the modeled value at the ith value.

The MAE was calculated probabilistically from the empirical cumulative density functions 

(CDFs) of the seasonal and annual ensemble model and observed datasets after the CDFs were 

interpolated to the same number of points within cumulative frequency space. That is, the CDFs 

were interpolated to the same number of points in terms of the y-axis. This interpolation enabled 

functions to be input into the MAE equation, which required both inputs to be the same length, 

and preserved the curves’ positioning along the Hs (x-axis) and the x-axis distance between the 

two curves. The MAE formula then returned a mean of the distance in terms of Hs (x-axis) 

position calculated at each interpolated y-axis point in the function. The MAE was calculated for 

each season (DJF, MAM, JJA, and SON) by computing the Hs CDF curves for each season within 

the historical and model data after isolating the season time-series within each dataset. The result 

was that individual seasons could be compared for accuracy. Much of the large-wave activity in 

the tropical Pacific is due to DJF storms at higher latitudes. By comparing seasons, the wave 

activity of a season that was typically more responsible for larger waves could be evaluated for 

accuracy, despite another season (such as JJA, which typically delivered less wave energy to the 

islands) possibly being more inaccurate. The entire time-series of both historical and model 

hindcast data were also compared and the resultant CDF comparisons were plotted (figs. 3–5). 

The MAE values of the complete time-series was also calculated and labeled as “Yearly” in tables 

3–8. The nVar is the ratio of modeled to observed variance where a value of 1 indicates the 

variances are identical and is given by:

nnnn = γmmm

2

γ o

2

where γmmm

2 = the variance of the model dataset and γ o2 = the variance of the observed dataset.

Results

Model Skill

The individual models compared favorably to the NDBC datasets based on the shape of 

CDFs alone (figs. 3–5). However, there was much variation between models, resulting in a wider 

spread of potential approximations for the data, most notably in the tails of each distribution. The 

ensemble hindcast dataset showed relatively small error values when compared to the observed 

dataset for the Hawaiian sites (tables 3–5). The Molokai point approximates all four stations 

around Hawaii well, with the largest yearly MAE value across all stations being 0.22 m (table 3, 

fig. 3). The point it best approximates, however, is station 51001 in the northwest sector of the 

islands, with both DJF and yearly errors lower than 0.14 m. Similarly, the nVar of this station 
9

tends to be closer to 1, which indicates that the ensemble and observed variances in the data are 

similar. 

A similar trend is found for the Big Island dataset (table 4) with Stations 51004 and 51002, 

which are spatially closer to the modeled point, showing smallest annual MAE values across all 

stations of 0.08 m and 0.06 m, respectively (fig. 4). Station 51003 also approximated the Big 

Island dataset; it has a very small DJF MAE and reveals a smaller nVar and standard deviation 

(Std). The Kauai point best represented station 51001 with an annual MAE of 0.18 m (table 5, fig. 

5). This point did not approximate the remaining points as well compared to the other modeled 

points, likely because of the effect of the islands on wave propagation at stations 51003, 51002, 

and 51004 that is unresolved in the coarse-resolution GCMs. The yearly-normalized variance ratio 

was 1.01, indicating that variances at these modeled point were captured well.

In summary, the ensemble hindcast Hs dataset approximated the NDBC buoy stations well. 

Generally, the modeled points represented the stations closest to their positions, but each served as 

a good representation for each station when compared to the complete observed dataset. The 

points collectively reflected the broad Hawaiian wave climate for the hindcast period, indicating 

that while individual trends are captured well, the larger wave trends of the Hawaiian chain are 

also captured within the model. Deviations from the observed dataset in figures 3–5 reflected the 

position of the modeled points relative to the island. For example, the modeled Molokai point 

over-predicted the waves present at 51004, which was expected because the station is to the 

southeast of the Big Island, which serves to block many of the larger waves that come from the 

northwest during the boreal winter.

Tables 6–8 show the MAE, Std, and nVar for the top 5 percent of Hs. As expected, the 

extreme Hs showed a larger model deviation from the observed values. The annual MAE for all 

points was approximately 0.40 to 0.60 m, indicating that the models did not represent the 

extremes as closely as the entire observed dataset. Additionally, the MAE for each station did not 

necessarily represent the nearest modeled point. For example, the modeled Kauai did not best

approximate Station 51001 for all seasons, producing a value of 0.58 m, but showed similar 

annual error for stations 51003 and 51004, 0.52–0.54 m (table 8). However, for the boreal winter 

season, when wave heights in the area are largest, the modeled points displayed small error 

approximating the nearest stations, with Kauai having an error of 0.08 m compared to Station 

51001, for example. Additionally, the nVar for each location indicated that the variance in the 

dataset was also not as well reflected in the observed dataset, with the observed values often 

varying more than modeled values. The processes that govern the formation of extreme wave 

events are difficult to capture, and it is therefore more likely that there were a greater number of 

variations that altered observed wave trends that the model was not able to emulate.

The modeled points in Hawaii represented the historical datasets well, often having a 

yearly MAE of less than 0.20 m. However, the deviation of modeled extreme Hs events 

demonstrates that the models do not necessarily predict extrema as accurately. The larger 
10

deviation in extreme Hs was expected, and although the error was larger, the modeled points still 

represented the Hawaiian Islands’ wave climates well. The accuracy of the remainder of the 

modeled points for the hindcast period could not be ascertained because of a lack of complete 

datasets in the remainder of the study area. However, given the accuracy of the Hawaiian points, it 

is more likely that the model ensembles of other locations simulated the hindcasted period 

accurately as well.

Regional Results

The results for each of the model points are listed in appendixes A–B and their monthly 

trends are displayed in appendixes C–D. The modeled points were grouped into one of six regions 

based on proximity and apparent similarity of wave climate trends within the “Results” and 

“Discussion” sections to more easily describe basinwide trends. These areas are the Western, 

Marianas, Central, Northeast, Eastern Equatorial, and Southern regions. The Western region 

contains the islands of Palau and Yap. The Marianas region comprises Asuncion, Saipan, and 

Guam. The Central region is the largest, with Chuuk, Kosrae, Enewetak, Bikini, Pohnpei, Wake, 

and Majuro. The Northeast region contains the Big Island of Hawaii, Molokai, Kauai, Midway, 

Johnston Atoll, and the Northwest Hawaiian Islands points. The Eastern Equatorial region 

contains Palmyra, Kingman Reef, Howland, and Jarvis. Finally, the Southern region encompasses 

two locations: American Samoa and Rose Atoll.

Wave Climate Parameter Changes

The Western Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP8.4

Mean

The average DJF and SON Hs of the Western region decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 6, 

fig. 9). MAM and JJA mean Hs values did not change significantly (fig. 7, fig. 8). σHH

2 values did 

not change significantly.

Mean Tp, associated σTT

2 values, and Dp values did not change significantly within the 

region (figs. 38–41, figs. 70–73).

Top 5 Percent

DJF mean Hs values dropped by 0.20 to 0.30 m (fig. 10). MAM values did not change 

significantly, while JJA values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 11, fig. 12). The largest decrease 
11

was during the SON season, where values decreased by >0.30 m (fig. 13). Extreme σHH

2 did not 

change significantly.

Mean Tp values decreased at Palau during the DJF and SON seasons by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig.

42, fig. 45). JJA values similarly decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 43). MAM Tp means did not 

change significantly, nor did σTT

2 values during any season (fig. 44). DJF and MAM mean Dp

values rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° at Palau (figs. 74–75). JJA mean Dp values rotated 

counterclockwise by 10 to 20° (fig. 76). SON σD values increased by >15.0° and mean Dp values 

rotated counterclockwise by 20 to 30° (fig. 77).

RCP8.5

Mean

The region displayed a decrease of 0.10-0.20 m during the DJF and SON seasons (fig. 14, 

fig. 17). Mean Hs did not change significantly in the remaining seasons (figs. 15–16). σHH

2 did not 

change significantly.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

46–49). σD values did not change significantly throughout all seasons, and mean wave directions 

rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during the JJA season (figs. 78–81).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme mean Hs values decreased by 0.10 to 0.30 m for the DJF season and decreased by 

>0.30 m during the SON season (fig. 18, fig. 21). Extreme values for the remaining seasons did 

not change significantly (figs. 19–20). Extreme σHH

2 values did not change significantly.

Tp means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Palau during the DJF and JJA seasons (fig. 50, fig.

52). SON Tp means also decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 53). MAM Tp means did not change 

significantly, nor did σTT

2 in any season (fig. 51). DJF σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at 

Palau and decreased by the same amount at Yap (fig. 82). Dp rotated clockwise by 5-10°. The Dp

values rotated clockwise by 5-10° during the MAM season (fig. 83). JJA σD values decreased by 

10.0 to 15.0°, and Dp rotated by 5-15° counterclockwise (fig. 84). SON σD values increased by 

5.0-10.0° at Yap (fig. 85).
12

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

The mean Hs values of the DJF and SON seasons decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 cm (fig. 22, 

fig. 25). Mean values did not change significantly during the other seasons (figs. 23–24). σHH

2

values did not change significantly.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

54–57). The Dp of Palau rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during the JJA season but otherwise did not 

change throughout the region during other seasons (figs. 86–89). σD values increased at Yap by 

5.0 to 10.0° during the SON season but did not change significantly during other seasons.

Top 5 Percent

The DJF extreme mean values decreased by 0.20 to 0.30 m (fig. 26). MAM and SON 

extreme values decreased by a smaller range of 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 27, fig. 29). Values did not 

change significantly during the boreal summer months (fig. 28). Extreme σHH

2 values did not 

change significantly.

The extreme JJA Tp mean decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Yap (fig. 60). Tp means did not 

change significantly during the remaining seasons and σTT

2 values did not significantly change 

throughout all seasons (figs. 58–59, fig. 61). DJF σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Palau 

and increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Yap (fig. 90). Palau’s Dp rotated clockwise by 5 to 10°. Dp at 

Palau rotated by 10 to 20° counterclockwise during the JJA season (fig. 92). σD values increased 

by >15.0° within the region during the SON season and mean directions rotated 20-30° 

counterclockwise at Palau and 100-110° counterclockwise at Yap (fig. 93). MAM Dp values did 

not change significantly (fig. 91).

RCP8.5

Mean

The region’s DJF mean Hs values decreased by 0.20 to 0.30 m, while the MAM values 

dropped by a smaller, 0.10 to 0.20 m (figs. 30–31). The SON season values decreased by a mix of 

small and larger values, ranging from 0.10 to 0.30 m (fig. 33). The JJA values did not change 

significantly (fig. 32). σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 during the SON season. Values did 

not change during other seasons.
13

Mean Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s during both the MAM and SON seasons (fig.

63, fig. 65). Tp means did not decrease during the remaining seasons (fig. 62, fig. 64). σTT

2 did not 

change throughout all seasons. Dp values rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during the JJA and SON 

seasons (figs. 96–97). Dp values did not change significantly during the DJF and MAM seasons 

(figs. 94–95). σD values did not change significantly throughout all seasons.

Top 5 Percent

Extreme Hs values decreased by 0.10 to >0.30 m for the DJF season (fig. 34). MAM 

values decreased by 0.20 to >0.30 m, and JJA values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (figs. 35–36). 

The SON values had the strongest decrease in the region with each point decreasing by >0.30 m 

(fig. 37). Extreme σHH

2 values did not change significantly from hindcast values.

Mean Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s during the DJF, MAM, and SON seasons (figs.

66–67, fig. 69). JJA Tp values did not change significantly (fig. 68). σTT

2 did not change 

significantly throughout all seasons. Palau’s Dp rotated by 5-10° clockwise during the DJF season 

(fig. 98). MAM σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and Dp rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig.

99). JJA σD values decreased by the same amount, but directions rotated 15-20° 

counterclockwise (fig. 100). SON σD values increased by 10-15°, and directions rotated 30 to 40° 

counterclockwise at Palau and 80 to 90° clockwise at Yap (fig. 101).

Marianas Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

MAM and SON values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 7, fig. 9). The boreal summer and

winter means did not change significantly from hindcast data (fig. 6, fig. 8). σHH

2 values did not 

change significantly.

Mean Tp, associated σTT

2 values, and Dp values did not change significantly within the 

region (figs. 38–41, figs. 70–73).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme wave heights increased by 0.10 to 0.20 m in Asuncion for the DJF season (fig.

10). Conversely, MAM extreme Hs means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 11). JJA values 

decreased by more than 0.30 m, but in SON, the values decreased by >0.30 m at each point (figs.
14

12–13). JJA σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40. SON σHH2 values increased at Asuncion by 0.20 

to 0.40.

Mean Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s during the DJF season at Asuncion and during 

JJA at Guam (fig. 42, fig. 44). The mean Tp values did not significantly change during other 

seasons (fig. 43, fig. 45). σTT

2 did not significantly change during all seasons. The Dp of Asuncion 

rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during DJF (fig. 74). MAM σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° 

(fig. 75). JJA σD values increased by 10.0 to 15.0°, and SON values increased by 10.0 to >15.0° 

(figs. 76–77).

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean SON Hs values at each point decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m, while the means for the 

remaining seasons did not change significantly (figs. 14–17). σHH

2 values did not change 

significantly.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

46–49). Saipan’s σD increased by 5.0 to 10.0° during the SON season (fig. 81). σD values did 

not change significantly throughout the remaining seasons, and directions did not change 

noticeably throughout all seasons (figs. 78–80).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme Hs values increased by 0.10 to 0.20 m during the MAM and JJA seasons (figs.

19–20). The SON values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 21). The boreal winter season did not 

change significantly (fig. 18). σHH

2 values increased during the SON season by 0.20 to 0.40 at 

Saipan and by >0.40 at Asuncion.

Mean Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 at Asuncion during DJF and at Guam during 

SON (fig. 50, fig. 53). Tp values did not significantly change during the remaining seasons (figs.

51–52). σTT

2 did not significantly change during all seasons. Dp at Asuncion rotated 10 to 20° 

clockwise during the DJF season (fig. 82). σD values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° over the region 

during MAM (fig. 83). The JJA σD value at Guam decreased by 5.0 to10.0° and Dp rotated 20-

30° clockwise at Asuncion and 5 to 10° at Saipan (fig. 84). SON σD values increased by 10.0 to 

>15.0° and directions rotated clockwise by 5 to 20° (fig. 85).
15

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

SON means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 25). The means of the remaining seasons did 

not significantly deviate from hindcast values (figs. 22–24). σHH

2 values did not change within the 

modeled region.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

54–57). The σD value decreased at Guam by 5.0 to 10.0° during the SON season (fig. 89). σD

values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 86–88). Dp at each point did not 

change noticeably.

Top 5 Percent

MAM and JJA extreme Hs means decreased by 0.20 to 0.30 m (figs. 27–28). The SON 

mean decreased by more than 0.30 m from the hindcast mean (fig. 29). The DJF mean did not 

change significantly form the hindcast mean (fig. 26). MAM σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 

0.40, except at the Guam point, which decreased by >0.40. Values did not change significantly 

during the remaining seasons.

Tp means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s during the DJF season (fig. 58). Tp means did not 

change significantly during other seasons (figs. 59–61). σTT

2 did not change significantly 

throughout all seasons. The DJF Dp of Asuncion rotated 5 to 10° clockwise (fig. 90). MAM σD

values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° throughout the region and directions rotated by 5 to 10° 

counterclockwise as Asuncion (fig. 91). JJA σD values increased by 5.0 to 1.0°, and Dp values at 

Saipan and Guam rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 92). SON σD valued increased by 5.0 to 

15.0° throughout the region, and Dp values at Saipan and Guam rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 

10° (fig. 93).

RCP8.5

Mean

DJF and MAM means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (figs. 30–31). SON values decreased 

by a wider range of 0.10 to 0.30 m (fig. 33). The JJA season mean did not change significantly 

(fig. 32). σHH

2 values did not change significantly.
16

Mean Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s during the DJF, MAM, and SON seasons (figs.

62–63, fig. 65). JJA Tp means didn’t change significantly (fig. 64). σTT

2 did not change 

significantly throughout all seasons. σD values increased during the SON season by 5.0 to 1.0° 

(fig. 97). σD values did not change significantly during other seasons and directions did not 

change noticeably (figs. 94–96).

Top 5 Percent

DJF extreme Hs means decreased by 0.10 to 0.30 m, while JJA values decreased by 0.10 to 

0.20 m (fig. 34, fig. 36). Both MAM and SON means decreased by more than 0.30 m (fig. 35, fig.

37). DJF σHH

2 values increased by 0.20 to 0.40 at Guam. MAM values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40,

with values decreasing by >0.40 at Guam. JJA σHH

2 values increased by 0.20 to 0.40 at Guam and 

decreased by the same amount at Asuncion. SON values did not change significantly.

DJF Tp means decreased over a wide range. Tp mean decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Guam, 

0.50 to 0.75 s at Saipan, and >0.75 s at Asuncion (fig. 66). MAM and SON Tp means decreased by 

0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 67, fig. 69). JJA mean Tp values did not change significantly (fig. 68). σTT

2 did 

not change significantly throughout all seasons. The Dp of Asuncion rotated 10 to 20° clockwise 

during the DJF season and 5 to 10° clockwise during the JJA season (fig. 98, fig. 100). σD values 

decreased by 5.0 to 15.0 during MAM (fig. 99). SON σD values increased by 5.0 to 15.0 across 

the region and directions rotated 10 to 20° clockwise (fig. 101).

Central Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

The SON mean Hs value decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m within the center of the island cluster 

(fig. 9). The mean values from other seasons did not change significantly (figs. 6–8). σHH

2 values 

did not change significantly.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

38–41). The Dp of Majuro and Pohnpei rotated by 5 to 10° clockwise and of Kosrae by 10 to 20° 

clockwise during the SON season (fig. 73). The Dp of all points did not change significantly 

during remaining seasons, and σD values did not significantly change across all seasons (figs.

70–72).
17

Top 5 Percent

The region experienced decreases in extreme mean wave heights during most seasons. The 

DJF mean decreased by 0.20 to 0.30 m, and the MAM season decreased by a smaller 0.10 to 0.20 

m (figs. 10–11). The SON mean extreme Hs decreased by more than 0.30 cm (fig. 13). There was 

no significant change in the JJA means (fig. 12). Extreme σHH

2 values did not change significantly 

from hindcast values.

The MAM mean Tp value at Kosrae decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 43). The JJA and 

SON Tp mean at Chuuk decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s. additionally, the σTT

2 during SON at 

Kwajalein increased by 1.5 to 3.0 (figs. 44–45). Tp means did not change significantly during the 

DJF season and σTT

2 values did not significantly change during the remaining seasons (fig. 42). 

DJF σD values increased by >15.0° but lowered to 5.0 to 15.0° closer to the Equator and the Dp

of Wake rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 74). The Dp at Kosrae rotated 5 to 10° 

clockwise and the regions σD values decreased by 5.0 to >15.0°, with the largest decrease at 

Kosrae, during the MAM season (fig. 75). σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° during the JJA 

season (fig. 76). Directions rotated 10 to 20° counterclockwise in the southwest half of the region 

and 5 to 10° clockwise in the northeast half. SON σD values decreased by 10.0 to > 15.0 in the 

northwest half of the region (fig. 77). The Dp rotated 40 to 50° clockwise at Kosrae and 5 to 10° 

counterclockwise at Kwajalein.

RCP8.5

Mean

The SON mean Hs decreased by 0.10-0.20 m (fig. 17). The remaining seasons’ mean did 

not change significantly (figs. 14–16). σHH

2 values did not change significantly.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

46–49). Dp at Kosrae and Pohnpei rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during SON and σD values did 

not change significantly throughout all seasons (figs. 78–81).

Top 5 Percent

DJF extreme Hs means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 at the Enewetak, Wake, and Bikini 

points (fig. 18). Conversely, the JJA means at Enewetak, Bikini, and Kosrae increased by 0.10 to 

0.20 m (fig. 20). Extreme Hs means for the SON season decreased by 0.20 to more than 0.30 m 

across the entire region (fig. 21). The boreal spring season averages did not change significantly 
18

(fig. 19). Extreme σHH

2 values increased by 0.20 to 0.40 at the Wake, Enewetak, and Bikini points. 

Values did not significantly change in other seasons.

The Tp mean at Kosrae increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s during the DJF season (fig. 50). Tp

means during MAM decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Pohnpei and Kosrae (fig. 51). Mean Tp values 

did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 52–53). σTT

2 did not significantly change 

during all seasons. DJF σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Kosrae, Chuuk, Pohnpei, and 

Wake (fig. 82). The MAM σD value at Chuuk decreased by 10.0 to 15.0°, and directions at 

Kosrae and Pohnpei rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 83). JJA σD values decreased by 5.0 to 

15.0° in the west half of the region, and islands’ directions rotated 5 to 10° clockwise at Majuro, 

Enewetak, Bikini, and Wake (fig. 84). Kosrae’s Dp in the rotated by 20 to 30° clockwise and the 

σD value at Wake increased by 10.0 to 15.0°. The σD values increased by 5.0 to 15.0° 

throughout. The SON Dp values of Kosrae, Pohnpei, and Kwajalein rotated counterclockwise by 

10 to 20° and at Majuro by 5 to 10° (fig. 85).

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

The DJF mean Hs values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m across the entire region, and the 

SON values decreased by the same amount but only in the western half of the region (fig. 22, fig.

25). The remaining seasons did not display significant changes form hindcast means (figs. 23–24). 

σHH

2 values did not change significantly.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

54–57). The SON σD value at Enewetak increased by 5.0 to 1.0°, and the Dp of Kosrae rotated 5 

to 10° clockwise (fig. 89). Directions and σD values did not change significantly through the 

other seasons (figs. 86–88).

Top 5 Percent

DJF, MAM, and SON extreme means decrease by 0.10 to 0.30 m, with the larger 

decreases occurring at the western points in the former two seasons and at the central islands in 

the latter (figs. 26–27, fig. 29). JJA means increase by 0.10 to greater than 0.30 m, with the largest 

deviations from hindcast means occurring at Enewetak and Bikini (fig. 28). MAM σHH

2 values 

decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 at the Enewetak point. JJA values increased by 0.20 to 0.40 at 

Enewetak, Bikini, and Wake. Values did not significantly change during other seasons.
19

The Tp mean decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Pohnpei during the MAM season (fig. 59). Tp

means increased during the JJA season at Enewetak, Bikini, and Wake by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 60). 

Means did not change significantly during other seasons (fig. 58, fig. 61). σTT

2 did not change 

significantly throughout all seasons. DJF σD values increased by 5.0 to 15.0° at Chuuk, Pohnpei, 

and Kosrae and the Dp of Wake rotated 5 to 10° counterclockwise (fig. 90). MAM σD values 

decreased by 5.0 to 15.0°, and directions rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° at Chuuk, Kosrae, and 

Wake (fig. 91). JJA trends were split by west and east within the region (fig. 92). The west half of 

the area displayed a decrease of σD values by 5.0 to >15.0°, and directions rotated clockwise by 5 

to 30°. The eastern half had an increase of σD values by 5.0 to >15.0° and directions rotated 

clockwise by 30 to 60°. The SON seasons displayed an increase of σD values by 5.0 to >15.0°,

and directions shifted counterclockwise by 20 to 30° at Chuuk, 50 to 60° at Pohnpei, 80 to 90° at 

Kosrae, and 10 to 20° at Kwajalein (fig. 93).

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean DJF values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 30). SON values decreased by a larger 

0.10 to 0.30 m (fig. 33). The remaining seasons’ means did not change significantly (figs. 31–32). 

SON σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 at Bikini, but values did not change significantly 

during other seasons.

Mean Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Bikini through the DJF season and at Kosrae 

during JJA (fig. 62, fig. 64). Tp means decreased through the entire region by 0.25 to 0.50 s during 

the SON season (fig. 65). There were no significant changes in Tp means during MAM (fig. 63). 

Additionally, σTT

2 values did not significantly change throughout all seasons. MAM σD values 

decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Chuuk (fig. 95). SON σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Kosrae 

and directions rotated 5 to 10° clockwise at Kwajalein, Majuro, and Chuuk, and by 10 to 20° at 

Kosrae and Pohnpei (fig. 97). No significant changes were observed during other seasons (fig. 94, 

fig. 96).

Top 5 Percent

DJF means decreased by 0.10 to 0.30 m over the region (fig. 34). MAM mean values 

decreased over a wide range, from 0.10 to more than 0.30 m (fig. 35). JJA values increased from 

0.10 to more than 0.30 m, with the largest increases occurring at Enewetak and Bikini (fig. 36). 

The strongest change was during the SON season, where the majority of the region’s values 

decreased by >0.30 m (fig. 37). σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 at Wake during the DJF 

season. Values decreased by the same amount at Enewetak and Bikini during the MAM season. 
20

JJA values decreased by >0.40 at Enewetak, Bikini, and Wake. SON valued increased by 0.20 to 

0.40 at Enewetak and Wake.

DJF Tp means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s within the region, while the σTT

2 at Kwajalein 

increased by 1.5 to 3.0 (fig. 66). σTT

2 values did not significantly change in the other seasons. 

MAM Tp means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s except at Chuuk and Pohnpei, where values decreased 

by 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 67). JJA Tp means decreased at Chuuk by 0.25 to 0.50 s and increased by 

the same amount at Wake (fig. 68). SON Tp means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s, except at Chuuk, 

where the decrease was 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 69). The Dp of Wake during DJF rotated 

counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 98). MAM σD values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° at Chuuk, 

Majuro, and Kwajalien (fig. 99). The Dp of Chuuk, Kosrae, and Pohnpei rotated clockwise by 5 to 

10°. The JJA σD values decreased at Enewetak by 5.0 to 10.0° and its direction rotated clockwise 

by 30 to 40° (fig. 100). The other islands’ directions in the western half of the region rotated 5 to 

20° counterclockwise. The east half of the region’s σD values increased by 5.0 to >15.0° and 

directions rotated 5 to 20° clockwise, and 20 to 30° at Wake and Bikini. SON σD values 

increased by 5.0 to >15.0° and directions rotated clockwise by 5 to 20° at Enewetak and Pohnpei, 

by 20 to 30° at Chuuk, and by 40 to 50° at Kosrae (fig. 101). There were no significant changes 

during the DJF season.

Northeast Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

The mean Hs values of the Northeast region did not change significantly throughout all 

seasons (figs. 6–9). σHH

2 values did not significantly change from hindcast values.

Mean Tp and associated σT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

38–41). The Dp of Midway rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during the SON season (fig. 73). Other 

Dp and associated σD values did not change significantly throughout all seasons (figs. 70–72).

Top 5 Percent

The main Hawaiian Island points’ extreme mean Hs decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m during 

the JJA season (fig. 12). The values of the remaining seasons did not change significantly (figs.

10–11, fig. 13). SON extreme σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 at Midway and by >0.40 at the 

Northwest Hawaiian Islands point. Values did not change significantly during the other seasons.
21

DJF Tp mean values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Kauai and Johnston Atoll (fig. 42). The 

Big Island Tp mean increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s. The MAM Tp mean of Kauai increased by 0.25 to 

0.50 s and its σTT

2 increased by 1.5 to 3.0 (fig. 43). JJA means remain unchanged but the σTT2 of 

Kauai increased by 1.5 to 3.0 (fig. 44). SON values did not significantly change (fig. 45). σTT

2

values during the boreal winter and fall seasons did not change significantly. The DJF Dp of the 

Big Island and Johnston Atoll rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 74). The MAM Dp of 

Kauai rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 75). The JJA σD value at Johnston Atoll 

increased by 10.0 to 15.0°, and the Dp at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands rotated clockwise by 5 

to 10° (fig. 76). SON σD values increased in the western half of the region by 5.0 to 10.0°, and 

wave directions in the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and Midway rotated 5 to 20° clockwise (fig.

77). The Dp of Kauai rotated clockwise by 5 to 10°.

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean valued decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m during the SON season throughout the region 

(fig. 17). There were no significant changes observed in other seasons (figs. 14–16). σHH

2 values 

did not change significantly.

Mean Tp values increased at Kauai during the JJA season and the Big Island point during 

SON by 0.25 to 0.50 s (figs. 48–49). Means did not change significantly during other seasons 

(figs. 46–47). σTT

2 values did not significantly change throughout all seasons. MAM Dp rotated by 

5 to 10° counterclockwise at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands point and by 10 to 20° at the 

Midway point (fig. 79). Midway’s σD increased by 5.0 to 10.0° during the JJA season (fig. 80). 

Midway’s Dp rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during the SON season (fig. 81). DJF Dp values did 

not change significantly (fig. 78).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme values over most seasons decreased at all points within the region. DJF values 

decreased by 0.10 to 0.30 m at all points except the Big Island of Hawaii point, which increased 

by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 18). MAM means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m at the Big Island of Hawaii 

point, but the remainder of the study area did not change significantly (fig. 19). The JJA and SON 

seasons’ means decreased irregularly over the region by 0.10 to 0.20 m (figs. 20–21). Extreme σHH

2

values did not change significantly.

Mean Tp increased at Johnston Atoll and Kauai during DJF by 0.25 to 0.50 (fig. 50). The 

Big Island point’s Tp mean increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s, and its σTT

2 decreased by 1.5 to 3.0. The 

JJA σTT

2 of Kauai increased by 1.5 to 3.0 and the SON mean Tp values of Kauai increased by 0.25 
22

to 0.50 s (figs. 52–53). The MAM season had not significant changes (fig. 51). DJF σD values 

increased by 5.0 to 10.0° except at the Big island point, which decreased by the 5.0 to 10.0° (fig.

82). Johnston Atoll Molokai’s Dp rotated 10 to 20° clockwise. Kauai’s Dp rotated clockwise by 5 

to 10°. The MAM σD of Midway decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° and the Northwest Hawaiian Islands, 

Kauai, and Molokai points’ mean Dp values rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 20° (fig. 83). JJA 

σD values increased by 5.0 to 15.0° across the region and Northwest Hawaiian Islands, and 

Midway’s mean Dp rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 84). The SON σD value of Kauai 

decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and the mean Dp of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands rotated clockwise 

by 10 to 20° (fig. 85). Midway’s Dp rotated counterclockwise by 20 to 30°.

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

The Midway and Northwest Hawaii points’ Hs means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m from 

hindcast means during the SON season, but the remainder of the region during this season did not 

change significantly (figs. 22–25). Additionally, the means of these points did not deviate 

significantly from hindcast means during other seasons. σHH

2 values did not change significantly.

Mean Tp values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Molokai and the Big Island points during 

MAM and at Molokai and Kauai during JJA (figs. 55–56). Tp means didn’t change significantly 

during other seasons, and σTT

2 values did not significantly change throughout all seasons (fig. 54, 

fig. 57). The mean MAM Dp at Midway, Kauai, Molokai, and the Northwest Hawaiian Islands 

rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 20° (fig. 87). Dp means at Midway and the Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands rotated clockwise by 5 to 20°. Dp values did not change significantly during the remaining 

seasons (fig. 86, figs. 88–89).

Top 5 Percent

The top 5 percent of mean Hs values decreased during the SON season by 0.10 to 0.30 m 

(fig. 29). The extreme Hs means did not change significantly for other seasons (figs. 26–28). JJA 

σHH

2 values increased by >0.40 within the region except at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and 

Kauai points, which increased by 0.20 to 0.40. Hs values did not change significantly during other 

seasons.

Mean Tp values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Johnston Atoll, Kauai, and Molokai during 

the DJF season (fig. 58). MAM Tp means increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Kauai and Johnston Atoll, 

and the Big Island’s Tp mean increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 59). JJA means increased by 0.25 to 
23

0.50 s, except at Kauai, which increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 60). σTT

2 at the Big Island increased 

by 1.5 to 3.0 and at Kauai by >3.0. SON means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Johnston Atoll, 

Kauai, and Molokai (fig. 61). DJF σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Midway and the 

Northwest Hawaiian Islands. Johnston Atoll’s Dp rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 90). 

The MAM mean Dp at Kauai and Molokai rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 20° (fig. 91). JJA σD

values increased by 5.0 to >15.0°, and mean Dp rotated clockwise at all islands except Johnston 

Atoll by 5 to 20° (fig. 92). Similarly, the mean Dp of Kauai, Johnston Atoll, Midway, and the 

Northwest Hawaiian Islands rotated 5 to 20° clockwise during the SON season (fig. 93). σD

values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° throughout the region.

RCP8.5

Mean

DJF, MAM, and JJA mean Hs values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m over the region (figs.

30–32). SON Hs means decreased by a larger range of 0.10 to 0.30 m (fig. 33). SON extreme σHH

2

values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 at Midway. Hs values did not change significantly during the 

remaining seasons.

JJA Tp means increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at the Big Island and Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands points and by 0.502 to 0.75 at the Molokai and Kauai points (fig. 64). σTT

2 increased by 1.5 

to 3.0 at the Big Island and Northwest Hawaiian Islands points. σTT

2 increased by >3.0 at Molokai 

and Kauai. The SON Big Island Tp mean increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 65). σTT

2 values 

increased by 1.5 to 3.0 at the Kauai and the Big Island points. Tp means and associated σTT

2 values 

did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 62–63). The MAM and JJA mean Dp

values of Midway rotated 5 to 10° counterclockwise and clockwise, respectively (figs. 95–96). 

The SON mean Dp at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and Midway rotated clockwise by 10 to 20° 

and at Kauai and Johnston Atoll by 5 to 10° (fig. 97). The Dp values of the DJF season did not 

significantly change (fig. 94).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme DJF Hs means decreased by 0.10 to >0.30 m, with the largest decrease occurring 

at the Midway point (fig. 34). MAM Hs values decreased by 0.10 to 0.30 m (fig. 35). The 

Northwest Hawaii, Midway, and Johnston Atoll points decreased by 0.20 to >0.30 m. The whole 

region decreased by the same amount during the SON season (fig. 37). Extreme σHH

2 values 

increased by 0.20 to 0.40 at the Big Island of Hawaii point during the DJF period. JJA values 

increased by 0.20 to 0.40 except at Midway, which increased by >0.40 (fig. 36).
24

DJF extreme Tp means increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 66). MAM means increased by 

0.25 to 0.50 s at Johnston Atoll, 0.50 to 0.75 s at Kauai, and >0.75 s at Molokai (fig. 67). JJA 

mean Tp values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s, except at Molokai, which increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s 

(fig. 68). σTT

2 values increased by 1.5 to 3.0, but Molokai and Kauai’s σTT2 valuess increased by 

>3.0. Mean SON Tp values decreased by 0.50 to 0.75 s, except at Johnston Atoll, which decreased 

by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 69). DJF σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and the Dp values of Kauai 

and Molokai rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 98). MAM σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at 

Johnston Atoll and the Big Island, while values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Midway and Kauai 

(fig. 99). Mean Dp at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands, Kauai, and Molokai rotated 

counterclockwise by 5 to 30°. JJA σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, except at Midway, which 

decreased by 10.0 to 15.0° (fig. 100). The Dp values of the Big Island, the Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands, and Midway points rotated clockwise by 5 to 20°. SON σD values decreased by 5.0 to 

10.0° at the Big Island point, and Dp at Kauai, Midway, and the Northwest Hawaiian Islands 

rotated clockwise by 10 to 30° (fig. 101).

Eastern Equatorial Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

There was no significant change in mean Hs values from hindcast means over all seasons 

(figs. 6–9). σHH

2 values did not change significantly.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

38–41). The Dp of Jarvis rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° during the JJA season (fig. 72). The 

Dp of all islands within the region rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during the SON season (fig. 73). 

σD values did not change significantly throughout all seasons (figs. 70–71).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme mean Hs values decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m at the Howland point during the DJF 

season, but the other points remain essentially unchanged (fig. 10). MAM means at Palmyra and

Kingman Reef increased by 0.10 to 0.20 m, while the remaining points were unchanged (fig. 11). 

Means decreased by 0.20 to 0.30 m during the SON season (fig. 13). The JJA season means did 

not change significantly from hindcast means (fig. 12). Extreme σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 

0.40 during the SON season.
25

DJF extreme Tp means increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Palmyra and Kingman Reef, and 

Howland’s mean values increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 42). MAM and JJA mean Tp values 

increased at Jarvis by 0.25 to 0.50 s (figs. 43–44). SON Tp means increased by a larger 0.50 to 

0.75 s range (fig. 45). σTT

2 values did not significantly change throughout all seasons. The MAM 

and JJA σD value at Howland decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° and the Dp of the latter season rotated 5 

to 10° counterclockwise (figs. 75–76). The SON σD value at Jarvis decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°; it 

and Howland’s Dp rotated clockwise by 10 to 20° and Palmyra and Kingman Reef’s Dp rotated 

counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 77). The DJF Dp values did not change significantly (fig. 74).

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean Hs values did not deviate significantly from hindcast means during this period (figs.

14–17). σHH

2 values did not change significantly throughout the region.

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

46–49). The SON mean Dp values rotated 5 to 10° clockwise within the region but did not 

significantly change throughout other seasons (fig. 81). σD values did not change significantly 

(figs. 78–80).

Top 5 Percent

Palmyra and Kingman Reef extreme SON Hs means decreased by >0.30 m compared to 

hindcast mean values, while the rest of the region did not change (figs. 18–21). Additionally, 

means did not change significantly during the other seasons. SON σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 

0.40, but remain unchanged throughout all other seasons.

Mean Tp values increased during the DJF season at the Palmyra and Kingman Reef points 

by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 50). Howland’s mean Tp decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s during the MAM 

season, whereas Palmyra and Kingman Reef’s values decreased by 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 51). The 

σTT

2 at Palmyra and Kingman Reef decreased by 1.5 to 3.0. The SON season’s mean Tp values 

increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s throughout the region (fig. 53). The σTT

2 during this season at Palmyra 

and Kingman Reef increased by 1.5 to 3.0. JJA Tp values did not change significantly (fig. 52). 

MAM σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° and the Dp of Jarvis rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 

10° (fig. 83). SON σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0°, except at Jarvis, where it’s σD decreased 

by 10.0 to 15.0 and the Dp of all islands rotated 5 to 30° clockwise (fig. 85). The Dp values of the 

remaining seasons did not change significantly (fig. 84, fig. 82).
26

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

Mean end-century Hs values and associated σHH

2 values did not change significantly across 

all seasons (figs. 22–25).

Mean Tp and associated σTT

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

54–57). The mean Dp of Jarvis rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° during MAM (fig. 87). SON 

Dp values rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° across all islands (fig. 89). σD values did not change 

significantly throughout all seasons (fig. 86, fig. 88).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme Hs means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m during the SON season (fig. 29). Hs means 

did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 26–28). Extreme σHH

2 values did not 

change significantly.

DJF Tp means increased by 0.25 to 0.50s at the Palmyra and Kingman Reef points and 

decreased by the same amount during the MAM season (figs. 58–59). The mean Tp increased at 

Jarvis by 0.25 to 0.50 and the σTT

2 values increased at Palmyra and Kingman Reef by 1.5 to 3.0 

during the JJA season (fig. 60). Not significant Tp changes were observed during the SON season,

and no significant σTT

2 changes were observed in other seasons (fig. 61). The σD value at Jarvis 

increased by 5.0 to 1.0° during the DJF season (fig. 90). MAM displayed an increase of 5.0 to 

10.0° in the σD of Jarvis as well as a 30 to 40 degree counterclockwise shift of the island’s Dp

(fig. 91). JJA σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0 throughout the region and the mean Dp of Jarvis 

rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 92). The σD of Jarvis increased by 5.0 to 10.0°; it and 

Howland’s Dp rotated clockwise by 5 to 20° during the SON season (fig. 93).

RCP8.5

Mean

The DJF Hs means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 30). Similarly, the Palmyra and 

Kingman Reef points decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m for the SON season (fig. 33). The region’s 

means did not change significantly during the other modeled seasons (figs. 31–32). σHH

2 values did 

not change significantly.
27

The SON σT

2 value at Jarvis increased by 1.5 to 3.0 (fig. 65). However, significant σTT2

changes were not observed in the remaining seasons, and Tp values did not change significantly 

across all seasons (figs. 62–64). The SON σD values decreased at Howland and Jarvis by 5.0 to 

10.0°, and the Dp values throughout the region rotated clockwise by 10 to 20° (fig. 97). Dp values 

did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 94–96).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme DJF mean Hs values decreased by 0.10 to 0.30 m within the region (fig. 34). 

MAM Hs means decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 m, and SON Hs values decreased by 0.20 to >0.30 m 

(fig. 35, fig. 37). The means of the JJA season did not change significantly (fig. 36). σHH

2 values 

decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 during the SON season. Values did not significantly change from 

hindcast values in the other seasons.

DJF Tp values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s, except Palmyra and Kingman Reef, which 

increased by 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 66). Palmyra and Kingman Reef’s mean Tp values decreased by 

0.25 to 0.50 s and Howland’s decreased by 0.50 to 0.75 s during the MAM season (fig. 67). JJA’s 

mean Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s at Howland, but increased by the same amount at 

Jarvis (fig. 68). Additionally, σTT

2 values at Palmyra and Kingman reef increased by 1.5 to 3.0 

during this season. The SON season trends were similar to the JJA trends, but Howland had a 

stronger mean Tp decrease of 0.50 to 0.75 s (fig. 69). The DJF σD value at Jarvis decreased by 5.0 

to 10.0° (fig. 98). JJA σD values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° within the region (fig. 100). The Dp of 

Jarvis rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° during the MAM season (fig. 99). σD values 

increased by 5.0 to 15.0° at Kingman Reef, Palmyra, and Howland, and the σD at Jarvis 

decreased by 10.0 to 15.0° during SON (fig. 101). Dp at Jarvis and Howland rotated clockwise by 

20 to 40°.

Southern Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

There were no significant changes in the Southern islands’ mean Hs values during the 

throughout all seasons (figs. 6–9). σHH

2 values did not significantly change.
28

Tp means did not change significantly across all seasons within the region (figs. 38–41). 

σTT

2 values did not change significantly across all seasons. Dp and σD values did not change 

significantly throughout all seasons (figs. 70–73).

Top 5 Percent

The mean of the top 5 percent of Hs values decreased at the American Samoa and the Rose 

point by 0.20 to 0.30 m during the DJF season (fig. 10). SON Hs values increased by 0.10 to 0.20 

m at both islands within the region (fig. 13). Extreme σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 at the 

American Samoa point during the DJF season. Values did not change significantly throughout the 

remaining seasons (fig. 11–12).

Mean Tp values increased within the region by 0.25 to 0.50 s during the DJF period (fig.

42). The σTT

2 at both islands increased by 1.5 to 3.0 during the same season. The mean Tp values 

during other seasons did not change significantly (figs. 43–45). The SON American Samoa 

point’s σTT

2 decreased by 1.5 to 3.0. The DJF σD at American Samoa decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° 

(fig. 74). The MAM Dp of Rose and American Samoa rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 75). Dp

values during the JJA and SON did not change significantly (figs. 76–77).

RCP8.5

Mean

There was not a significant change in mean Hs values from hindcast means over all 

seasons (figs. 14–17). σHH

2 values did not change significantly.

Mean Tp values did not change significantly (figs. 46–49). σTT

2 values did not change 

significantly across all seasons. The DJF Dp Rose rotated by 5 to 10° clockwise (fig. 78). Dp and 

σD values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 79–81).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme mean Hs values increased by 0.10 to 0.20 m at the American Samoa point and 

0.20 to 0.30 m at the Rose Atoll point for the DJF period (fig. 18). During the SON season, the 

region’s mean Hs values increased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 21). JJA mean Hs values increased at 

Rose by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 20). DJF σHH

2 values decreased by 0.20 to 0.40 at the American 

Samoa point. Extreme Hs values did not significantly change during the MAM or JJA seasons 

(fig. 19).

Mean Tp values increased at Rose by 0.25 to 0.50 s during the DJF season (fig. 50). During 

the same season, the region’s σTT

2 decreased by 1.5 to 3.0 at Rose and by >3.0 at American 

Samoa. MAM Tp means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 51). The SON mean Tp increased by 0.25 
29

to 0.50 s (fig. 53). The JJA Tp means did not change significantly (fig. 52). Rose and American 

Samoa’s DJF Dp rotated clockwise by 10 to 20° at Rose and by 20 to 30° at American Samoa (fig.

82). Dp and σD values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 83–85).

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

There was no significant change from hindcast mean Hs values across all seasons (figs.

22–25). σHH

2 values did not change significantly.

The mean Tp and σTT

2 values did not change significantly throughout all seasons (figs. 54–

57). Dp and σD values did not change significantly throughout all seasons (figs. 86–89).

Top 5 Percent

Extreme MAM and SON Hs means increased by 0.10 to 0.20 m (fig. 27, fig. 29). DJF and 

JJA means did not change significantly (fig. 26, fig. 28). DJF extreme σHH

2 values decreased at 

American Samoa by >0.40 and extreme MAM σHH

2 values increased by 0.20 to 0.40.

The DJF σTT

2 at American Samoa decreased by 1.5 to 3.0 (fig. 58). The SON mean Tp

values did not change significantly (fig. 61). The MAM and JJA mean Tp values did not change 

significantly (figs. 59–60). During the DJF season, both points’ Dp rotated by 10 to 20° clockwise 

(fig. 90). The σD value at Rose decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°. Values did not change significantly 

during other seasons (figs. 91–93).

RCP8.5

Mean

There was no significant change from hindcast mean Hs values across all seasons at 

American Samoa and Rose Atoll (figs. 30–33).

Mean Tp values did not change significantly across all seasons (figs. 62-65). σTT

2 values did 

not change significantly throughout all seasons. The mean Dp in the southern islands rotated by 5 

to 10° clockwise during the DJF season (fig. 94). SON σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig.

97). Values did not change significantly during MAM and JJA (figs. 95–96).
30

Top 5 Percent

Extreme mean Hs values increased by 0.10 to 0.20 at Rose Atoll during the DJF season 

(fig. 34). JJA Hs values increased by 0.10 to 0.20 m at Rose (fig. 36). Extreme mean values did 

not change significantly for the MAM and SON seasons (fig. 35, fig. 37). DJF σHH

2 values 

decreased by 0.10 to 0.20 at American Samoa. σHH

2 values did not change significantly during 

other seasons.

The SON mean Tp values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 s (fig. 69). Tp values did not change 

significantly during other seasons (figs. 66–68). MAM σD values increased by 5.0 to 15.0° (fig.

99). The SON σD values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° and Rose’s and its Dp rotated 5 to 10° 

clockwise (fig. 101). Values did not change significantly during DJF and JJA (fig. 98, fig. 100).

Wind Climate Parameter Changes

Western Region 

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

The mean Ua of the Western region decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s during the DJF season 

(fig. 102). Mean wind speeds did not change significantly during the other three seasons (figs.

103–105). σUU

2 decreased at the Yap point by 0.75 to 1.50 during the SON season. σUU2 values did 

not change significantly during other seasons.

MAM σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 135). Yap’s Uθ values rotated 

counterclockwise during the JJA season and clockwise during the SON season by 5 to 10° (figs.

136–137). DJF values did not significantly change during other seasons (fig. 134).

Top 5 percent

The means of top 5 percent of wind speeds did not change significantly except at the Yap 

point during the DJF season, which decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (figs. 106–109). Extreme σUU

2

increased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Palau during the SON season. σUU

2 values did not change significantly 

during the other seasons.

DJF σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 138). JJA σUU values increased by 5.0 to 

10.0° and Palau’s Uθ rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 140). MAM σUU values decreased 
31

by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 139). SON σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 141). During this season, 

Palau’s Uθ rotated by 5 to 10° counterclockwise and Yap’s Uθ rotated by 20 to 30° 

counterclockwise.

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean wind speeds decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s during the DJF season (fig. 110). Mean 

values did not change significantly during the remaining seasons (figs. 111–113). σUU

2 decreased 

during the SON season at Yap. σUU

2 values did not change significantly during other seasons

MAM Uθ σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0 (fig. 143). JJA Uθ values rotated clockwise 

at Palau by 5 to 10°. SON mean wave directions rotated 5 to 20° clockwise (fig. 144). Values did 

not change significantly during other seasons (fig. 142, fig. 145).

Top 5 percent

DJF extreme wind speed means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 114). SON means 

decreased by 0.50 to 0.75 m/s (fig. 117). The remaining seasons displayed no significant changes 

(figs. 115–116). Extreme σUU

2 values did not change in the region throughout all seasons.

The DJF σUU value at Palau increased by 5.0 to 10.0° and Uθ through the region rotated 10 

to 20° clockwise (fig. 146). σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° during the JJA season (fig. 148). 

SON σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 149). The MAM season’s values did not change 

significantly (fig. 147).

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

There were no significant changes in Ua means observed during all seasons (figs. 118–

121). SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at all points. σUU2 values did not change 

significantly during the remaining seasons.

Yap’s Uθ rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° during JJA (fig. 152). Uθ s rotated by 10 to 

20° clockwise during the SON, but values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs.

150–151, fig. 153).
32

Top 5 percent

The DJF and SON extreme wind speeds decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 122, fig. 125). 

Other seasons showed no significant change in wind speeds (figs. 123–124). Extreme σUU

2 values 

did not significantly change within the region.

SON σUU values decreased by 10.0 to 15.0° (fig. 157). Direction values did not 

significantly change during other seasons (figs. 154–156).

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean wind speeds decreased by 0.50 to 0.75 m/s during the DJF season but increased by 

0.25 to 0.50 m/s during the JJA season (fig. 126, fig. 128). The remaining seasons displayed no 

significant change in mean wind speeds (fig. 127, fig. 129). MAM σUU

2 decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 

at Yap. SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 throughout the region.

The JJA Uθ of Yap rotated by 10 to 20° counterclockwise (fig. 160). σUU values decreased 

by 5.0 to 10.0° during the MAM and SON seasons (fig. 159, fig. 161). The Uθ of Yap rotated 10 

to 20° clockwise during the SON seasons. DJF values did not change significantly (fig. 158).

Top 5 percent

DJF and SON mean wind speed values decreased by 0.50 to 0.75 m/s (fig. 130, fig. 133). 

MAM values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 131). The JJA season values did not change 

significantly (fig. 132). JJA σUU

2 increased at Yap by 0.75 to 1.50. SON σUU2 values increased by 

0.75 to 1.50 at both islands within the region. Ua values did not change significantly during the 

other seasons.

DJF σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° and mean wave directions rotated by 5 to 10° 

clockwise at Palau (fig. 162). Similarly, the JJA Uθ of Yap rotated by 10 to 20° counterclockwise

(fig. 164). MAM σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° as did SON values (fig. 163, fig. 165). The 

Uθ of Palau rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° during the JJA season. SON Uθ rotated 

counterclockwise by 5 to 20°.

Marianas Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045
33

RCP4.5

Mean

Mean wind speeds decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s in the Marianas region during the SON 

season, but values did not change significantly during the other seasons (figs. 102–105). JJA σUU

2

decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Asuncion. Guam σUU

2 values decreased by the same amount during 

the SON season.

SON σUU values increase by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 137). Uθ values did not significantly change 

during other seasons (figs. 134–136).

Top 5 percent

JJA extreme Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at Saipan and Guam, with speeds 

decreasing my >0.75 m/s at the Asuncion point (fig. 108). Similarly, SON values decreased by 

0.25 to 0.50 m/s at Saipan and Asuncion but decreased by >0.75 m/s at Guam (fig. 109). The DJF 

and MAM means did not change significantly (figs. 106–107). MAM extreme σUU

2 decreased by 

0.75 to 1.50 at Guam. JJA σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Asuncion.

The JJA σUU value increased by 10.0 to 15.0° at Saipan and rotated counterclockwise by 5 

to 10° at the Saipan and Guam points (fig. 140). σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° during 

MAM and increased by 5.0 to 10.0° during SON (fig. 139, fig. 141). The Uθ of Guam rotated 

clockwise by 10 to 20° during the SON season. DJF direction values did not change significantly 

(fig. 138).

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean Ua values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s during the MAM and SON seasons (fig.

111, fig. 113). The remaining seasons’ mean values did not change significantly (fig. 110, fig.

112). σUU

2 decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Guam during the SON season.

σUU values decreased at the Guam point by 5.0 to 10.0° during the JJA season and 

increased by 5.0 to 15.0° during the SON season (figs. 144–145). σUU values did not change 

significantly during other seasons (figs. 142–143).

Top 5 percent

MAM mean extreme Ua values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 115). JJA changes were 

mixed. Ua mean increased at the Saipan point by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s and decreased at the Asuncion 

point by the same amount (fig. 116). SON values decreased by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s, with the largest 
34

change occurring at the Guam point (fig. 117). DJF values did not change significantly (fig. 114). 

MAM σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50, except at Guam, where the σUU2 decreased by >1.50. 

SON σUU

2 values increased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Saipan and by >1.50 at Asuncion.

JJA σUU values decreased at Guam by 10.0 to 15.0° and increased at Asuncion by 5.0 to 

10.0° (fig. 148). Saipan and Asuncion’s Uθ rotated clockwise by 10 to 20°. MAM σUU valued 

decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 147). SON σUU values increased by 10.0 to >15.0° and Uθ s rotated 

clockwise by 5 to 30°, with the larger deviation from hindcast means occurring at Guam (fig.

149). DJF direction values did not change significantly (fig. 146).

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

Mean Ua values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s during the SON season but did not change 

significantly during the remaining seasons (figs. 118–121). σUU

2 decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at 

Asuncion during the JJA season. SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at all islands.

The JJA σUU value at Guam decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 152). SON σUU values 

increased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 153). σUU values did not change significantly during other seasons 

(figs. 150–151).

Top 5 percent

MAM extreme Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 123). JJA values decreased 

by 0.25 to >0.75 m/s, with the largest change occurring at Asuncion (fig. 124). SON values 

decreased by 0.50 to >0.75 m/s (fig. 125). No significant change in extreme Ua means occurred 

during the DJF season (fig. 122). MAM σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Saipan and >1.50 

at Guam. Values did not change significantly during other seasons.

MAM σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° (fig. 155). Saipan’s σUU value increased by 

10.0 to 15.0° and it and Guam’s Uθ s rotated clockwise by 10 to 20° during the JJA season (fig.

156). The SON σUU at Guam increased by 10.0 to 15.0° and its Uθ rotated clockwise by 10 to 20° 

(fig. 157). DJF direction values did not change significantly (fig. 154).
35

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean Ua values decreased during the DJF and SON seasons (fig. 126, fig. 129). No 

significant changes were observed during the other seasons (figs. 127–128). σUU

2 values decreased 

by 0.75 to 1.50 during the MAM and SON seasons. The JJA σUU

2 at Asuncion decreased by 0.75 to 

1.50. σUU

2 values did not change significantly during the DJF season.

JJA σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and SON σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° 

(fig. 160). Uθ values did not significantly change during other seasons (figs. 158–159, fig. 161).

Top 5 percent

MAM Ua values decreased by 0.50 to >0.75 m/s while JJA values decreased by a smaller 

0.25 to 0.50 m/s (figs. 131–132). SON values decreased by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s, with the largest 

change occurring at the Guam point (fig. 133). DJF values did not change significantly (fig. 130). 

The σU

2 of the Guam point increased by >1.50 during the DJF season. σUU2 values increased by a 

smaller amount of 0.75 to 1.50 during the JJA and SON seasons for the Guam and Asuncion 

points, respectively. MAM values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50, except at Guam where the σUU

2

decreased by >1.50.

The DJF σUU at Asuncion decrease by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 162). MAM σUU values decreased 

by 5.0 to 15.0° (fig. 163). Uθ s during JJA rotated by 5 to 20° clockwise within the region (fig.

164). SON σUU values increased by 5.0 to 15.0°, and the Uθ of Guam rotated 10 to 20° clockwise 

(fig. 165).

Central Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

SON mean Ua values decreased at the Enewetak, Bikini, and Kwajalein points by 0.25 to 

0.50 m/s (fig. 105). There were no significant changes observed during the remaining seasons 

(figs. 102–104). SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Pohnpei and Kwajalein. σUU2 values 

did not change significantly throughout the other seasons.
36

MAM σU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 135). The JJA value at Bikini decreased 

by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 136). The Uθ values of Chuuk and Kwajalein rotated counterclockwise by 5 

to 10°. Uθ values did not significantly change in other seasons (fig. 134, fig. 137).

Top 5 percent

MAM Ua values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at Enewetak and Bikini (fig. 107). Means 

increased by the same amount throughout the region during the JJA season (fig. 108). SON means 

decreased by 0.25 to >0.75 m/s, with the largest change occurring at Pohnpei (fig. 109). Mean Ua

values did not change significantly during the DJF season (fig. 106). MAM σUU

2 values decreased 

by 0.75 to 1.50 at Enewetak, Bikini, and Kosrae. Conversely, σUU

2 values increased by 0.75 to 1.50 

at Enewtok, Bikini, and Pohnpei during the SON season.

DJF σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0 at Pohnpei and Kosrae, but by 10.0 to 15.0 at 

Chuuk (fig. 138). MAM σUU decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° through the region (fig. 139). JJA σUU

values increased at Pohnpei by 5.0 to 10.0° and decreased at Majuro by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 140). 

σUU values through the region increased by 5.0 to 10.0° during the SON season, except at Chuuk 

and Kosrae where they decreased by 10.0 to >15.0° (fig. 141). The Uθ of Bikini and Enewetak

rotated clockwise by 5 to 20° and counterclockwise at Kosrae by the same amount. The Uθ of 

Pohnpei and Chuuk rotated clockwise by 60 to 70°.

RCP8.5

Mean

Ua means decreased during the SON season at Enewetak, Bikini, and Kwajalein (fig. 113). 

Values did not change significantly during the remaining seasons (figs. 110–112). The MAM σUU

2

decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Bikini. SON values decreased at Pohnpei and Kwajalein by 0.75 to 

1.50.

σUU values decreased during the MAM season at Chuuk and Pohnpei by 5.0 to 10.0° and 

at Enewetak and Bikini during JJA by the same amount (figs. 143–144). The Uθ s of Chuuk and 

Kwajalein rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° in the SON season, and values did not change 

significantly during DJF (fig. 142, fig. 145).

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua values decreased in the eastern half of the region during the JJA season by 

0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 116). SON values decreased by the same amount, though the sites of 

decrease were sparse, not displaying any observable clustering (fig. 117). JJA σUU

2 values 

increased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Kwajalein and >1.50 at Wake. The SON σU

2 at the Majuro point 
37

decreased by 0.75 to 1.50. Ua values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 114–

115).

DJF σUU values at Chuuk and Pohnpei increased by 5.0 to 10.0° and decreased by 5.0 to 

10.0° at Majuro (fig. 146). Chuuk’s σUU value during MAM decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 147). 

JJA σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Pohnpei and increased by the same amount at Wake 

and Kosrae (fig. 148). The Uθ of Pohnpei and Kosrae rotated clockwise by 20 to 30 and 40 to 50°, 

respectively. The Uθ of Chuuk, Wake, and Kwajalein rotated clockwise by 5 to 20°. SON σUU

values decreased at Chuuk by 5.0 to 10.0° and increased throughout the rest of the region by 5.0 to 

>15.0° (fig. 149). The Uθ at Chuuk and Pohnpei rotated by 40 to 60° clockwise and at Majuro and

Kosrae by 10 to 20° clockwise.

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

DJF means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Majuro (fig. 118). 

Similarly, values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 at Enewetak, Bikini, and Kwajalein during the SON 

season (fig. 121). JJA Ua means increased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s throughout the region (fig. 120). 

MAM values did not change significantly (fig. 119). The MAM σUU

2 at Majuro decreased by 0.75 

to 1.50 and the SON σUU

2 at Kwajalein decreased by 0.75 to 1.50.

MAM σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kosrae (fig. 151). JJA 

σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Bikini and Enewetak (fig. 152). SON σUU values increased 

by 5.0 to 10.0° at Enewetak, Bikini, and Kwajalein (fig. 153). Uθ of Chuuk, Pohnpei, Majuro, and 

Kwajalein rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during SON. DJF direction values did not change 

significantly (fig. 150).

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s during the DJF and SON seasons and 

specifically at the Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kosrae points during the MAM season (figs. 122–123, fig.

125). There was an increase in JJA Ua values by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s across the region, with the 

largest changes displayed at Enewetak, Bikini, and Kosrae (fig. 124). σUU

2 values decreased by 

0.75 to 1.50 at Bikini and Kosrae during the MAM season. JJA values increased throughout the 

region by 0.75 to 1.50, except at Chuuk, where values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50. SON σUU

2 values 

increased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Enewetak, Bikini, and Majuro. Values did not change significantly 

during the DJF season.
38

DJF σUU values increased at Chuuk and Kosrae by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 154). MAM σUU

values decreased by 5.0 to >15.0 at Kosrae, Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kwajalein (fig. 155). JJA σUU

values decreased by 5.0 to >15.0° at Majuro and Chuuk, but values increased by 5.0 to >15.0 at 

Wake, Kosrae, Enewtok, and Bikini (fig. 156). The Uθ of Chuuk, Bikini, and Kwajalein rotated 

clockwise by 5 to 20° and the directions of Majuro, Pohnpei, and Kosrae rotated by 20 to 40° 

clockwise. SON σUU values decreased at Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Kosrae by >15.0°, but values 

increased by 10.0 to >15.0° at Enewetak, Bikini, Kwajalein, and Majuro (fig. 157). Uθ rotated 

clockwise by 70 to 90° at Chuuk and Pohnpei, 60 to 70° at Majuro, and 5 to 30° at Kosrae, 

Enewetak, Bikini, and Kwajalein.

RCP8.5

Mean

DJF Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s, and SON means decreased by the same 

amount at Enewetak, Bikini, and Kwajalein (fig. 126, fig. 129). MAM means increased by 0.25 to 

0.50 m/s at Pohnpei, Kwajalein, and Majuro (fig. 127). JJA values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s 

across the entire region (fig. 128). The σUU

2 decreased at the Majuro point by 0.75 to 1.50 during 

the DJF and MAM seasons. Similarly, the σUU

2 at the Wake point decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 during 

the JJA season. σUU

2 values decreased across the entire region by 0.75 to 1.50 during SON.

MAM σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Chuuk, Pohnpei, and Majuro (fig. 159). JJA 

σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0°, and the mean directions of Chuuk, Kosrae, Majuro, and 

Pohnpei rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 160). Wind direction values did not change 

significantly during the DJF and SON seasons (fig. 158, fig. 161).

Top 5 percent

The top 5 percent of Ua values decreased by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s during the DJF, MAM, and 

SON, with the largest boreal winter values in the center of the region and fall values at Pohnpei 

(figs. 130–131, fig. 133). Conversely, JJA Ua values increased by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s, with the 

largest increases occurring at Enewetak, Bikini, and Pohnpei (fig. 132). MAM extreme σUU

2 at 

Bikini decreased by 0.75 to 1.50. JJA σUU

2 values increased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Pohnpei and 

Kwajalein and by >1.50 at Enewetak, Bikini, and Wake. SON season σUU

2 values increased by 

0.75 to 1.50 at Pohnpei and by >1.50 at Enewetak, Bikini, and Chuuk.

MAM σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° (fig. 163). JJA mean wave directions rotated 5 

to 20° clockwise at Enewetak, Bikini, Wake, and Kwajalein, but rotated 5 to 10° counterclockwise

at Majuro and Kosrae (fig. 164). SON σU values decreased by 1.0 to >15.0° at Chuuk, Pohnpei, 

and Kosrae (fig. 165). Uθ rotated 30 to 40° clockwise at Chuuk and 20 to 40° counterclockwise at 
39

Pohnpei and Kosrae during the SON season. DJF direction values did not change significantly 

(fig. 162).

Northeast Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

Mean Ua values did not change significantly across all seasons (figs. 102–105). The DJF 

σUU

2 decreased at Johnston Atoll by 0.75 to 1.560.

The σUU value at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands increased by 5.0 to 10.0° during the DJF 

season (fig. 134). Wind direction values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs.

135–137).

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at the Northwest Hawaii and Midway 

points during the DJF season and at the main Hawaiian Islands points during the SON season (fig.

106, fig. 109). Ua values did not change significantly during the remaining seasons (figs. 107–

108). The σUU

2 of the Northwest Hawaiian point increased by 0.75 to 1.50 during the SON season.

The DJF Uθ of Midway rotated by 5 to 10° clockwise and its σUU value increased by 5.0 to 

10.0° (fig. 138). Midway’s Uθ rotated 10 to 20° clockwise during the MAM season and by 5 to 

10° clockwise during the SON season (fig. 139, fig. 141). Johnston Atoll’s σUU value increased by 

5.0 to 10.0° during the JJA and SON seasons (fig. 140).

RCP8.5

Mean

Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at the Big Island of Hawaii point during SON (fig.

113). The other seasons’ means did not change significantly (figs. 110–112). The σUU

2 at the 

Northwest Hawaiian point decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 during the DJF season.

The DJF Uθ of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands rotated clockwise by 20 to 30° (fig. 142). 

Wind direction values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 143–145).
40

Top 5 percent

DJF changes were mixed. The Ua values at the Big Island point increased by 0.25 to 0.50 

m/s, but the Northwest Hawaii and Midway means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 114). JJA 

means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at the main Hawaiian Islands points (fig. 116). SON means 

decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s across the whole region (fig. 117). MAM means did not change 

significantly (fig. 115). σUU

2 values within the region did not change significantly.

The DJF σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Midway and the Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands and decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° at Molokai, Kauai, and Johnston Atoll (fig. 146). The Uθ of 

Midway rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° at Midway during the MAM season (fig. 147). JJA σUU

values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at the Big Island point (fig. 148). The σUU values during SON 

decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° at Midway and the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and increased by 5.0 to 

10.0° at Johnston Atoll (fig. 149).

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

There were no significant changes in Ua means across all seasons. DJF σUU

2 values 

decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Johnston Atoll, the Northwest Hawaiian Islands point, and Midway 

(fig. 118). SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and 

Midway points (fig. 121). Ua Values did not change significantly during the other seasons (figs.

119–120).

The σUU of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands increased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and its Uθ rotated 5 

to 10° clockwise during the DJF season (fig. 150). σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at 

Midway and the Northwest Hawaiian Islands during SON (fig. 153). Wind direction values did 

not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 151–152).

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s during the DJF season at the Northwest 

Hawaii, Midway, and Johnston Atoll points (fig. 122). The Molokai and Johnston Atoll’s means 

decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s during the MAM season (fig. 123). The JJA season means 

decreased at the Northwest Hawaii point by 0.25 to 0.50, and the SON season Ua values decreased 

by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at the Northwest Hawaii and Midway points (figs. 124–125). JJA σUU

2 values 
41

increased by 0.75 to 1.50 at the Northwest Hawaii point and by >1.50 at the Big Island and 

Midway points.

The DJF σUU values at Kauai and Molokai decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 154). The Uθ at 

Midway during MAM rotated by 5 to 10° clockwise (fig. 155). σUU values increased by 5.0 to 

15.0° during JJA (fig. 156). SON wind directions σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° at Midway 

and the Northwest Hawaiian Islands while the rest of the region’s values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° 

(fig. 157).

RCP8.5

Mean

Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s, except at the midway point, which decreased by 

0.50 to 0.75 m/s during the DJF (fig. 126). JJA means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 128). 

SON values at the Big Island of Hawaii decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 129). The MAM 

season means did not change significantly (fig. 127). σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at 

Johnston Atoll and by >1.50 at the Northwest Hawaii and Midway points during the DJF season. 

JJA values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Northwest Hawaii, Kauai, and Johnston Atoll. SON 

values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Kauai and the Northwest Hawaii points, but decreased further 

by >1.50 at Johnston atoll. The MAM season’s σUU

2 values did not change significantly.

DJF σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at the Big Island, Kauai, and Johnston Atoll 

points, and the Uθ of the Northwest Hawaiian Islands rotated clockwise 10 to 20° (fig. 158). The 

SON σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands, Midway, and Kauai 

(fig. 161). Wind direction values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 159–

160).

Top 5 percent

DJF extreme mean Ua values decreased by 0.50 to >0.75 m/s (fig. 130). MAM values 

decreased by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s (fig. 131). JJA means decreased over a wide range of 0.25 to >0.75 

m/s (fig. 132). Extreme means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at the Big Island of Hawaii point for 

the SON season (fig. 133). Kauai’s σUU

2 increased by 0.75 to 1.50 during the SON season.

DJF σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and decreased 

by >15.0° at Molokai and Kauai (fig. 162). MAM direction σUU values at the Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands and Kauai decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and the Uθ of Midway rotated by 20 to 30° clockwise 

(fig. 163). SON σUU values decreased by 5.0 to >15.0° at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands and 

Midway (fig. 165). Midway’s Uθ rotated 5 to 10° clockwise. JJA wind direction values did not 

change significantly (fig. 164).
42

Eastern Equatorial Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean

MAM mean Ua values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at the Palmyra and Kingman Reef 

points (fig. 103). Means did not significantly change during the other seasons through the region 

(fig. 102, figs. 104–105).

The MAM σUU of Jarvis increased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 135). The Uθ of Kingman Reef 

rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° during JJA (fig. 136). Wind direction values did not change 

significantly during other seasons (fig. 134, fig. 137).

Top 5 percent

The Palmyra and Kingman Reef points’ extreme mean Ua values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 

m/s during the MAM and JJA seasons (figs. 107–108). The SON Ua values decreased by 0.25 to 

0.50 m/s throughout the entire region (fig. 109). The DJF values did not change significantly (fig.

106). SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 across the entire region. However, σUU2 values did 

not significantly change during other seasons.

DJF σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° at Howland, Palmyra (fig. 138). Jarvis and 

Howland’s Uθ rotated clockwise by 5 to 20°. The MAM σUU value at Jarvis increased by 5.0 to 

10.0° (fig. 139). The JJA wind direction values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Howland and 

Kingman Reef, with Palmyra and Kingman Reef’s Uθ rotating counterclockwise by 10 to 20° (fig.

140). The σUU values of Jarvis and Howland decreased by 10.0 to 15.0° during the SON season 

(fig. 141). Palmyra’s Uθ rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10°.

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean Ua values increased during the MAM season at the Palmyra and Kingman Reef 

points (fig. 111). Otherwise, means did not change significantly at other points or during the other 

seasons (fig. 110, figs. 112–113). σUU

2 values did not change within the region.

MAM σUU values at Palmyra and Kingman Reef decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 143). The 

Uθ of Kingman Reef within the JJA season rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 144). Wind 

direction values did not change significantly during other seasons (fig. 142, fig. 145).
43

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua values decreased by 0.20 to 0.50 m/s at the Jarvis point during the MAM 

season, while the other islands remain relatively unchanged (fig. 115). The SON extreme Ua

values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s, except for the Howland point, which did not change 

significantly (fig. 117). Similarly, there were not significant changes observed in the remaining 

seasons (fig. 114, fig. 116). SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50. Values did not change 

significantly during the remaining seasons.

DJF σUU values decreased at Howland and Palmyra by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 146). The MAM 

σUU value at Howland decreased by 10.0 to 15.0° (fig. 147). The JJA σUU values decreased by 5.0 

to 15.0° at Howland, Palmyra, and Kingman Reef (fig. 148). The Uθ of Palmyra and Kingman 

Reef rotated counterclockwise by 10 to 20°. SON σUU values decreased by >15.0° at Jarvis and 

increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Kingman Reef (fig. 149). Kingman Reef’s Uθ rotated 

counterclockwise by 10 to 20°.

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean

Mean Ua values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at the Palmyra and Kingman Reef points 

during the MAM season (fig. 119). The remaining seasons had not significant changes observed 

(fig. 118, figs. 120–121). σUU

2 values did not change significantly within the region.

The MAM σUU values at Palmyra and Kingman Reef decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 151). 

Wind direction values did not change significantly during other seasons (figs. 150, 152–153).

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s throughout the region during the JJA 

season (fig. 124). SON values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s at Jarvis, but did not change 

significantly at the other points (fig. 125). Ua values did not significantly change during the 

remaining seasons (figs. 122–123). Extreme σUU

2 values did not change significantly within the 

region.

The Uθ within the region rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° during the DJF season (fig.

154). The MAM σUU at Jarvis increased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and Howland’s Uθ rotated 

counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 155). JJA Uθ of Palmyra and Kingman Reef rotated 
44

counterclockwise by 10 to 20° (fig. 156). SON σUU values increased by 5.0 to 15.0°, and the Uθ of 

Palmyra rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 157).

RCP8.5

Mean

MAM Ua means increased by 0.50 to >0.75 m/s throughout the region (fig. 127). Means 

did not significantly deviate from hindcast means during other seasons (fig. 126, figs. 128–129). 

σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 at Palmyra and Kingman Reef during the MAM season.

The DJF σUU values at Palmyra and Kingman Reef decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 158). 

The MAM σUU at Jarvis increased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and the Uθ of Palmyra rotated 

counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 159). JJA mean wave directions at Palmyra and Kingman Reef 

rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 20° (fig. 160). SON wind direction values did not change 

significantly (fig. 161).

Top 5 percent

DJF extreme Ua means decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 130). SON values also 

decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s, except the Howland point remain unchanged (fig. 133). JJA values 

intensified throughout the study area by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 132). MAM values did not change 

significantly (fig. 131). SON σUU

2 values decreased by 0.75 to 1.50 across the region.

DJF σUU values decreased at Howland and Palmyra by 5.0 to 15.0°, and the Uθ of Jarvis 

rotated counterclockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 162). MAM σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at 

Palmyra and Jarvis (fig. 163). JJA mean wave directions at Palmyra and Kingman Reef rotated 

counterclockwise by 10 to 30° and by 5 to 10° counterclockwise at Howland (fig. 164). SON σUU

values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° at Palmyra and Kingman Reef and decreased by 5.0 to 15.0° at 

Howland and Jarvis (fig. 165). Palmyra’s Uθ rotated counterclockwise by 10 to 20°.

Southern Region

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5

Mean
45

Mean Ua values did not change significantly across all seasons within the region (figs.

102–105). σUU

2 values did not change significantly within the region.

Uθ and associated σUU values did not change significantly (figs. 134–137).

Top 5 percent

DJF and JJA extreme mean Ua values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s (fig. 106, fig. 108). 

Values did not change significantly in the MAM and SON seasons (fig. 107, fig. 109). Extreme 

σUU

2 values did not change significantly within the region.

Mean wave directions of the DJF season rotated by 5 to 20° counterclockwise, and σUU

decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 138). MAM σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and Uθ rotated 

clockwise by 5 to 10° (fig. 139). Wind direction values did not change significantly during the 

JJA and SON seasons (figs. 140–141).

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean Ua and associated σUU

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

110–113).

The Uθ of Rose rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during the MAM season (fig. 143). Uθ and 

associated σUU values during other seasons did not change significantly (fig. 142, figs. 144–145).

Top 5 percent

The means of the top 5 percent of Ua values did not change significantly. The MAM σUU

2

of Rose increased by 0.75 to 1.50 (fig. 115). Values did not change significantly during the 

remaining seasons (fig. 114, figs. 116–117).

σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° during the DJF and MAM seasons, and Uθ rotated 

clockwise by 10 to 20 and 5 to 10°, respectively (figs. 146–147). Wind direction values did not 

change significantly during other seasons (figs. 148–149).

End-Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5

Mean
46

Mean Ua, associated σUU

2 values, and wind direction values did not change significantly 

throughout the modeled region (figs. 118–121, figs. 150–153).

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua means did not change significantly throughout the region. DJF σUU

2 values 

decreased by >0.75 (fig. 122). MAM values increased by 0.75 to 1.50, but did not change 

significantly during the remaining seasons (figs. 123–125).

The DJF σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and Uθ rotated clockwise by 20 to 30° (fig.

154). SON σUU values increased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 157). Wind direction values did not change 

significantly during the MAM and JJA seasons (figs. 155–156).

RCP8.5

Mean

Mean Ua and associated σUU

2 values did not change significantly within the region (figs.

126–129).

DJF σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 15.0°, and SON σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° 

(fig. 158, fig. 161). The Uθ of Rose rotated clockwise by 5 to 10° during DJF. Wind direction 

values did not change significantly during the MAM and JJA seasons (figs. 159–160).

Top 5 percent

Extreme Ua means did not change significantly within the region. MAM σUU

2 values 

increased by 0.75 to 1.50 within the region (fig. 131). σUU

2 values did not significantly change 

during the other seasons (fig. 130, figs. 132–133).

DJF σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and Uθ values rotated clockwise by 20 to 30° 

(fig. 162). The MAM σUU of Rose decreased by 5.0 to 10.0°, and both islands’ Uθ rotated 5 to 10° 

counterclockwise (fig. 163). SON σUU values decreased by 5.0 to 10.0° (fig. 165). Wind direction 

values during the JJA season did not change significantly from hindcast values (fig. 164).

Discussion

This section will primarily focus on the trends found present in the top 5 percent of Hs

values, because trends within unfiltered values were small to insignificant. Extreme Hs values will 

likely be more important within these regions for planning purposes and understanding the 

changing nature of wave hazards in the future. Thus, it is more practical and important that these 

extreme trends are well understood.
47

Spatial and Temporal Hs and Ua Trends

Significant Wave Heights

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5 mean Hs values decreased primarily west of latitude 180° within the study area. 

These changes were concentrated in the Central region during the DJF, MAM, and SON seasons. 

The largest decrease occurred during the JJA season within the Marianas region; however, the 

other main observed change was a small decrease in Hs values in the Hawaiian Islands.

As with the RCP4.5 scenario, the RCP8.5 mean Hs values decreased primarily west of 

180°. However, the largest areas of decrease during the SON season were within the Western and 

Marianas regions. JJA values increased within the Central region, and there were decreases in the 

eastern half of the study area. Additionally, during seasons when the Northern Hemisphere points 

decreased in either intensity or breadth, the Southern region’s mean Hs values increased.

These trends suggest that within both scenarios, wave heights are decreasing mainly in the 

western regions of the study area by 0.20 to 0.30 m. The RCP4.5 scenario seems to have larger 

decreasing trends at the mid-century compared to the 8.5 scenario. These trends suggest that the 

extratropical cyclones that cause large swell waves within the Pacific seemed to decrease in 

frequency, decrease in strength, or change their storm tracks. The strongest decrease trends within 

the Northern Hemisphere occurred during the DJF and SON seasons, but during these periods the 

Southern region’s Hs values increased, particularly at American Samoa, where the Hs increased by 

>0.30 m.

End-Century: 2081–2100

The Hs trends throughout the end-century scenarios were similar to those of mid-century, 

but they were larger in aerial extent and intensity. Most of the changes occurred in the western 

half of the modeled area, with the majority happening in the Central and Marianas regions. The 

SON extreme Hs means of the RCP4.5 scenario decreased widely across the study area and had 

the largest decreases of any season. As opposed to the mid-century JJA season, there was an 

increase in Hs values within the Central region, with the largest increases at Enewetak.

The RCP8.5 trends were similar to the RCP4.5 trends but tended to be more widespread 

and stronger. The SON decreases were widespread, affecting every region except the Southern 

region. The mean Hs values of the majority of the points within the Northern Hemisphere 

decreased by more than 0.30 m, the strongest trend observed through all seasons and scenarios. 

JJA patterns exhibited a stronger increase in Central Hs values of 0.10 to more than 0.30 m, but 

the surrounding regions’ values decreased by 0.10 to more than 0.30 m. DJF and MAM Hs values 

decreased primarily in the western half of the study area. Also, the Southern region islands’ Hs

generally increased, with American Samoa’s usually being larger, in all but the MAM season. The 
48

similarity between the two end-century scenarios was in contrast to the mid-century values where 

the trends were similar but the stronger decreases were present in the RCP4.5 scenario. Boreal fall 

values remained the largest changes observed throughout all seasons, with the DJF values being 

the next largest.

Mean Wind Speeds

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5 SON Ua values decreased by 0.25 to more than 0.75 m/s in the Eastern Equatorial 

region, the Marianas region, and the southern islands of the Central region. Conversely, southern 

Central region islands increased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s, while the Marianas islands’ Ua values 

decreased, as did the Southern and Northeast regions’ values.

As with the RCP4.5 scenario, the RCP8.5 SON Ua values decreased at the points west of 

180° near the equator, though the decreases were smaller in intensity, 0.25 to 0.75 m/s, and aerial 

extent. JJA Ua values increased by 0.25 to 0.50 m/s within the Central region, similar to those of 

RCP4.5, but the affected points were fewer, and the Ua decreases present within other regions 

were not as clearly defined. Changes in mid-century Ua values were more intense and widespread 

during the RCP4.5 scenario.

End-century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5 extreme Ua values decreased widely during the SON season west of 180°. The 

largest decrease was within the Marians region, >0.75 m/s in the southern two islands. Within the 

MAM season, Ua values decreased in the southern Central islands and the Marianas by 0.25 to 

0.50 m/s. This trend followed the general decrease in SON values of the mid-century.

RCP8.5 SON Ua values decreased strongly throughout the study area, with decreases of 

more than 0.75 m/s in the far western islands and southern Central region and the western islands 

within the Northeast region. Similarly, MAM Ua values decreased throughout the study area, with 

the larger decreases of 0.50 to more than 0.75 m occurring north of 10°N. JJA values increased 

within the Central and Eastern Equatorial regions, by 0.25 to 0.75 m/s, and the Northeast’s Ua

values decreased, mimicking the end-century RCP8.5 JJA Hs values. DJF Ua values decreased 

throughout most regions, with the western Northeast points displaying the largest decreases.

Throughout all seasons, the end century Ua values exhibited mainly the same trends as the 

mid-century scenarios, but the trends were intensified by the end of the century. The mid-century 

RCP4.5 Ua changes were generally stronger and more widespread than the RCP8.5 changes. 

However, these trends reversed by the end of the century, where the RCP8.5 changes were 

generally stronger, more widespread, and well defined.
49

Spatial and Temporal Tp, Dp, and Uθ Trends

Peak Wave Periods

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5 Tp values increased in the eastern half of the study region by 0.25 to 0.75 s during 

the SON and DJF seasons. Values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s in the western islands that are close 

to the equator during the JJA season.

The RCP8.5 scenario Tp values decreased in the westernmost islands by 0.25 to 0.50 s 

during SON and by 0.25 to 0.75 s in the Central equatorial and Eastern Equatorial islands during 

the MAM season. However, there was a 0.25 to 0.75 s increase in the eastern half of the study 

area during the DJF season.

End Century: 2081–2100

RCP4.5 SON Tp values decreased by 0.25 to 0.50 s in the Northeast region. DJF and JJA 

values increased in the east half of the study region and the Central region.

The RCP8.5 SON season had widespread decreases across the Northern Hemisphere 

points. DJF values are split between the west and east half of the study area. Points west of 180° 

displayed decreasing Tp values, while the east had 0.25 to 0.50 s increases. MAM and JJA values 

increased in the Northeast region by 0.25 to >0.75 s. The end-century scenario represented an 

increase of some basic trends observed during the mid-century period.

As with the Hs values, RCP8.5, while showing similar or weaker trends in the mid-century 

period, displayed a stronger change during each season than the 4.5 scenario. By the end of the 

century, the 4.5 scenario displayed little deviation from hindcast values. The end-century trends of 

4.5 are generally weak, such that there were no significant trends discernable. The sole trend 

observed in both scenarios was an increase in JJA Tp values in the Northeast region. The changes 

in mean Tp were small; therefore, the changes observed and their relation to wave generation areas 

or storm changes were tenuous.

Mean Wave Directions 

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5 Dp changes were mainly relegated to regions west of 180°, with the majority of 

the changes occurring in the Central region. The σD values increased by 10.0 to more than 15.0° 

within the west and were accompanied with the largest observed directional shifts for the time 

period and scenario. There were 5.0 to 15.0° σD increases within the Central and Marianas 

regions during the DJF and JJA, respectively.
50

The majority of the RCP8.5 changes occurred during the SON season. σD values 

generally increased west of 180° and had the most widespread directional shifts, occurring 

primarily in the Marianas region and the Central region, closer to the equator. There was an east 

and west trend present during the JJA, where the Northeast σD values increased by 0.50 to 15.0 

degree and the equatorial islands west of 180° decreased by 0.50 to 15.0°. The two scenarios 

differed primarily within the SON season. The RCP4.5 scenario showed a larger and more 

widespread increase of σD values and directional shifts within the west islands compared to the 

RCP8.5 scenario. Otherwise, the RCP8.5 showed more complex JJA patterns in σD values, 

reflecting changes in dominant JJA extreme wave generation.

End-Century: 2081–2100

The RCP4.5 SON σD values displayed a large increase west of 180° of generally more 

than 15.0°. This increase was accompanied by large counterclockwise shifts in the islands near the 

equator within these west regions. The JJA season’s σD values increased in the east half of the 

study area and within the eastern islands of the Central region.

The RCP8.5 JJA σD values followed a similar pattern of increasing within the Northern 

hemisphere islands east of 165°, but the values generally increased by a weaker 0.50 to 10.0° 

compared to the stronger values observed in the RCP4.5 scenario. However, the Islands in the 

Central region displayed a clockwise Dp shift, though smaller than the RCP4.5 scenario; Enewetak

remained the largest Dp shift and, similarly, its σD value decreased. MAM σD values generally 

decreased within the west half of the study area, similar to those of RCP4.5. The SON σD values 

in the western half of the study region increased, but the increases were weaker than in the 

RCP4.5 scenario.

The RCP4.5 end-century scenario displayed generally stronger SON and JJA trends in Dp

values. Both JJA values seemed to indicate a weakening of the trade wind’s influence on extreme 

Dp values within the central region. Enewetak appeared to go through a transition from being 

dominated by trade wind swell waves to Southern ocean swell waves, causing the reorientation of 

extreme wave directions towards the north. The increase of σD values indicated that the extreme 

wave heights during this season, probably more composed of trade wind swell during the hindcast 

period, have become subject to increased large swell from other regions. Similarly, the trade 

winds seem to become more dominant during the SON seasons, because in the Central region, 

directions rotated clockwise closer to the equator and within the Marianas region during RCP8.5, 

but they rotated counterclockwise during RCP4.5.
51

Mean Wind Directions

Mid-Century: 2026–2045

RCP4.5 SON σUU values increased west of 180°, except for Chuuk and Kosrae, which 

decreased by 10.0 to more than 15.0°. MAM σUU values decreased in the west half of the study 

area, but the other seasons did not show a significant trend.

RCP8.5 values showed larger changes in σUU and direction values during the SON season 

than RCP4.5. Points west of 180° increased by 5.0 to more than 15.0°, and many points 

experienced significant clockwise rotations in Uθ. DJF σUU values decreased throughout the 

eastern half of the study region by 5.0 to 10.0°.

End-Century: 2081–2100

The end-century RCP4.5 SON trends were much more complex than those present in the 

mid-century. The largest changes were still within the Central region. The σUU of the southern 

islands within the region decreased by more than 15.0°, and their mean direction values rotated 

clockwise from the northwest to the northeast. The σUU of the eastern islands within the Central 

region increased by more than 15.0°.

RCP8.5 SON trends change dramatically from mid-century values. The southern Central 

region islands rotated counterclockwise. MAM σUU values decreased across the study area, though 

directions did not change significantly. There were not many significant deviations from hindcast 

values during other seasons. RCP8.5 end-century SON wind directions did not match the RCP4.5 

scenario or represent an intensification of the trends displayed within RCP4.5. Instead, RCP4.5 

end-century wind direction changes more closely resembled the changes present within the midcentury RCP8.5 scenario. Therefore, wind directions within the RCP8.5 scenario may have 

represented the end member of changes, whereby changes were much larger until the mid-century, 

but over a longer period, these Uθ values returned to approximately hindcast directions.

Implications

The end-century RCP8.5 scenario’s trends appear to be an intensification of the trends of 

the RCP4.5 scenario, except for Dp and Uθ values. This pattern suggests that the intensification of 

the radiative forcing will result in similar, but stronger variable changes by 2100. Hs changes over 

the next century are forecasted to be a spectrum of large decreases across the tropical Pacific, with 

the strength of the decrease scaling with the intensity of the radiative forcing. This trend was 

broadly observed by Hemer and others (2013), who projected Hs values to decrease by 5 to 10

percent of hindcast values throughout the northern Pacific during the January-March and JulySeptember periods by the end of the 21st century. However, Hemer and others (2013) did not 

address the SON season, therefore not describing the large decreases in Hs values forecasted in 

this study. The decrease in Hs values may be linked to a decrease in extratropical cyclone 

frequency, strength, or storm tracks. Ulbrich and others (2008), using an ensemble of models, 
52

project storm tracks within the North Pacific to shift poleward, which would have a direct effect 

on the extreme swell waves produced. Changes in storm tracks would explain the large decrease 

of Hs values projected throughout most periods, except JJA, when North Pacific storm activity is 

reduced. It is unlikely that these changes are due to tropical cyclone or El Niño Southern 

Oscillation activity, as neither phenomenon is captured well within the selected global climate 

models (GCMs).

Wave periods are related to frequency as 1/frequency. Therefore, as wave periods increase, 

the frequency of the spectrum decreases. Lower frequency spectra indicate a greater distance 

between swell wave generation region and the affected area. The end-century RCP8.5 scenario 

displays a DJF difference between Tp trends for the west and east halves of the study area. These 

changes in Tp are similar to the trends observed by Hemer and others (2013) for January-March,

where the eastern half of the study regions values increased and those in the west decreased. 

However, July-September values show a clear decrease, but within this study, JJA values do not 

suggest any significantly comparable trends. Eastern Tp values increase while western values 

decrease, possibly indicating that the DJF waves will be generated closer to the western half of the 

study area and farther from the eastern half. This trend assumes that DJF extreme waves 

throughout the study area are generated by extratropical storms in the North Pacific.

The RCP4.5 end-century scenario display generally stronger SON and JJA trends in Dp

values but little to no change during the DJF season. The changes in wave directions that are 

present during JJA differ from the general directions presented by Hemer and others (2013) 

whereby the Central, Western, and Marianas regions’ directions are predominantly oriented from 

south to north. This difference is likely due to the fact that these directions were the result of 

averaging the directions of the top 5 percent of wave heights. Both values seemed to indicate a 

weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme Dp values within the Central region. 

Merrifield (2011) described historical increases in Pacific trade-wind intensity as tracking 

signatures of global warming trends, and inferred that this trend should persist into the future 

unless other processes began to override these tendencies. Therefore, it would be unlikely, as 

radiative forcing increased within both scenarios, for the trade winds themselves to weaken. 

Instead, it appears that changes in the Central region’s wave directions were subject to strong, 

extratropical forcing.

Enewetak is projected to go through a transition from being dominated by trade-wind 

waves to Southern Ocean swell. The increase of σUU values indicates that the extreme east-towest-trending wave heights during the JJA season, possibly more composed of trade wind waves 

during the hindcast period, have become subject to increased large swell from other regions. 

During RCP8.5, it seemed that the trade-wind waves become more dominant, influencing Central 

islands, whereas during RCP4.5, Southern Hemisphere swell seems to dominate the Central 

equatorial islands. Under the assumption that the trend in trade wind intensity will continue to 

scale with increased radiative forcing, it would appear that a larger portion of extreme wave 
53

heights will be generated by trade winds during the end-century RCP8.5 scenario, resulting in the 

stronger east-to-west shift in wave directions opposed to mid-century directions.

Overall, increases in wind speeds during the JJA season within the Central region 

corresponded with increases in wave heights within the region. However, the cause of the 

decreasing strength of Ua values throughout other seasons remains uncertain. Unlike other 

variables, end-century RCP8.5 directions more closely matched hindcast means. It is possible that 

over the short term or weaker radiative forcing, new processes may affect local wind conditions, 

exacerbated by the degree of climate change, but under extended forcing, previous trends will 

once again become dominate. However, this supposition will need to be studied further.

Conclusions

Extreme wave climates within the tropical Pacific Ocean were forecasted to change 

dramatically during the 2026–2045 and 2081–2100 periods. Hs trends predicted by both RCP4.5 

and RCP8.5 show marked decreases in Hs magnitudes by the end of the 21st century. The endcentury trends of the two scenarios were similar, with the magnitude and breadth of the Hs values 

within RCP8.5 generally being larger. This difference suggests that over the next century, the 

response of wave climate parameters within the tropical Pacific may be a spectrum of change, 

with the magnitude of the change dependent on the magnitude of the radiative forcing. Tp and Ua

values respond similarly. The forecasted region to experience the most change is the Central 

region, where Hs values generally decrease dramatically and Dp values rotated often more than 

40° within the southern portion of the region. Clearly these islands will be subject to new 

conditions that will need to be studied more and in greater depth. Additionally, past work has 

mainly focused on the boreal winter and summer seasons; however, it was found within this study 

that SON Hs values changed the most, suggesting that future studies would benefit from 

describing the MAM and SON seasons as well.
54

Acknowledgments

This work was carried out under the USGS’s Pacific Coral Reef Project as part of an effort 

in the United States and its trust territories to better understand the affect of geologic and 

oceanographic processes on coral reef systems and the USGS’s Climate Change Impacts to the 

U.S. Pacific and Arctic Coasts Project to understand the impact of climate change on U.S. and 

U.S.-affiliated island shorelines. This project was funded by the USGS’s Coastal and Marine 

Geology Program and the Pacific Islands Climate Change Cooperative (PICCC). Sean Vitousek

(USGS) and Patrick Limber (USGS) contributed numerous excellent suggestions and a timely 

review of our work. Peter Stauffer (USGS) provided the editorial review and Susan Cochran 

(USGS) performed all of the formatting and layout for this report. Use of trademark names does 

not imply USGS endorsement of products.

Additional Digital Information

For an online PDF version of this report, please see:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2015/1001/

For more information on the U.S. Geological Survey’s Pacific Coastal and Marine Science 

Center, please see:

http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/

For more information on the U.S. Geological Survey’s Pacific Coral Reef Project, please see:

http://coralreefs.wr.usgs.gov/

Direct Contact Information

Regarding this report

Curt D. Storlazzi (Project Chief): cstorlazzi@usgs.gov
55

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57

Table 1. Table of names and locations of WAVEWATCH III model points within the mid-to-western tropical 

Pacific Ocean.

[Negative latitudes are degrees south; negative longitudes are degrees west]

Modeled location name Latitude (oN) Longitude (oE)

American Samoa -14.25 -170.00

Kauai 22.00 -160.00

Big Island of Hawaii 19.00 -154.00

Midway 28.20 -177.40

Chuuk 7.40 151.85

Saipan 15.25 145.75

Asuncion 19.70 145.40

Kosrae 5.20 163.00

Palau 7.30 134.50

Pohnpei 6.75 158.00

Yap 9.50 138.10

Majuro 7.10 171.30

Enewetak 11.50 162.20

Bikini 11.60 165.40

Molokai 21.25 -157.00

Northwest Hawaiian Islands 25.75 -171.75

Guam 13.50 144.75

Kwajalein 8.75 167.75

Wake 19.25 166.75

Johnston Atoll 16.75 -169.50

Kingman Reef 6.50 -162.50

Palmyra Atoll 5.83 -162.08

Rose Atoll -14.50 -168.25

Howland 0.75 -176.50

Jarvis -0.50 -160.00
58

Table 2. List of Global Climate Models used, wave model used, and the model resolutions.

Global Climate Model Resolution (longitude x latitude) in Degrees

BCC-CSM1.1 2.8 x 2.8

INM-CM4 2.0 x 1.5

MIROC5 1.4 x 1.4

GFDL-ESM2M 2.5 x 1.5

Global Wave Model Resolution (longitude x latitude) in Degrees

WAVEWATCHIII 1.25 x 1.00

Table 3. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the 

Molokai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the 

Hawaiian Islands by months.

[DJF=December-February, MAM=March-May, JJA=June-August, and SON=September-November; NDBC, 

National Data Buoy Center; statistics shown are mean absolute error (MAE), standard deviation (Std), and normalized 

variance (nVar)]

Time 

Period

NDBC 51001 NDBC 51002 NDBC 51003 NDBC 51004

MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar

DJF 0.14 0.17 0.68 0.40 0.15 1.46 0.44 0.14 1.40 0.39 0.18 1.55

MAM 0.08 0.09 0.81 0.12 0.05 1.22 0.07 0.08 1.24 0.13 0.08 1.38

JJA 0.10 0.08 1.40 0.15 0.04 1.23 0.15 0.14 1.79 0.12 0.07 1.42

SON 0.19 0.17 0.85 0.23 0.17 1.71 0.33 0.16 1.65 0.19 0.16 1.75

Yearly 0.10 0.12 0.81 0.15 0.16 1.65 0.22 0.15 1.51 0.16 0.16 1.73
59

Table 4. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Big 

Island of Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations 

throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months.

[DJF=December-February, MAM=March-May, JJA=June-August, and SON=September-November; NDBC, 

National Data Buoy Center; statistics shown are mean absolute error (MAE), standard deviation (Std), and normalized 

variance (nVar)]

Time 

Period

NDBC 51001 NDBC 51002 NDBC 51003 NDBC 51004

MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar

DJF 0.34 0.34 0.50 0.09 0.04 1.07 0.11 0.03 0.97 0.10 0.07 1.18

MAM 0.11 0.13 0.65 0.08 0.03 0.98 0.09 0.03 1.03 0.07 0.04 1.14

JJA 0.28 0.10 1.52 0.05 0.06 1.34 0.32 0.16 1.95 0.09 0.07 1.53

SON 0.18 0.12 0.83 0.22 0.17 1.68 0.33 0.17 1.63 0.19 0.16 1.73

Yearly 0.17 0.20 0.59 0.07 0.06 1.21 0.21 0.04 1.09 0.09 0.08 1.31

Table 5. Table showing comparisons between hindcast significant wave height data, in meters, at the Kauai 

point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations throughout the Hawaiian 

Islands by months.

[DJF=December-February, MAM=March-May, JJA=June-August, and SON=September-November; NDBC, 

National Data Buoy Center; statistics shown are mean absolute error (MAE), standard deviation (Std), and normalized 

variance (nVar)]

Time 

Period

NDBC 51001 NDBC 51002 NDBC 51003 NDBC 51004

MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar

DJF 0.22 0.05 0.92 0.63 0.30 1.95 0.67 0.29 1.88 0.61 0.32 2.05

MAM 0.05 0.03 1.00 0.12 0.11 1.52 0.18 0.17 1.52 0.16 0.17 1.72

JJA 0.18 0.13 1.72 0.10 0.07 1.53 0.22 0.19 2.17 0.11 0.07 1.71

SON 0.29 0.15 0.93 0.34 0.20 1.86 0.44 0.20 1.80 0.29 0.20 1.91

Yearly 0.18 0.07 1.01 0.26 0.28 2.05 0.36 0.25 1.88 0.26 0.27 2.13
60

Table 6. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in 

meters, at the Molokai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations 

throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months.

[DJF=December-February, MAM=March-May, JJA=June-August, and SON=September-November; NDBC, 

National Data Buoy Center; statistics shown are mean absolute error (MAE), standard deviation (Std), and normalized 

variance (nVar)]

Time 

Period

NDBC 51001 NDBC 51002 NDBC 51003 NDBC 51004

MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar

DJF 0.67 0.24 0.51 0.76 0.18 2.02 0.74 0.16 1.52 0.76 0.09 1.28

MAM 0.37 0.06 0.82 0.12 0.03 1.02 0.28 0.09 0.85 0.33 0.07 0.44

JJA 0.35 0.27 3.71 0.06 0.05 1.29 0.51 0.13 1.52 0.08 0.09 0.81

SON 0.46 0.44 0.33 0.64 0.14 1.77 0.65 0.08 1.43 0.54 0.05 1.19

Yearly 0.49 0.03 1.06 0.49 0.02 1.06 0.46 0.04 1.07 0.44 0.02 1.03

Table 7. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in 

meters, at the Big Island of Hawaii point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC 

stations throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months.

[DJF=December-February, MAM=March-May, JJA=June-August, and SON=September-November; NDBC, 

National Data Buoy Center; statistics shown are mean absolute error (MAE), standard deviation (Std), and normalized 

variance (nVar)]

Time 

Period

NDBC 51001 NDBC 51002 NDBC 51003 NDBC 51004

MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar

DJF 1.36 0.39 0.31 0.12 0.08 1.26 0.04 0.04 0.93 0.15 0.05 0.69

MAM 0.52 0.12 0.61 0.03 0.02 0.96 0.17 0.05 0.68 0.20 0.05 0.37

JJA 0.56 0.22 3.51 0.22 0.10 1.36 0.72 0.10 1.31 0.30 0.08 0.71

SON 0.41 0.35 0.41 0.71 0.20 2.10 0.74 0.16 1.79 0.64 0.09 1.37

Yearly 0.42 0.03 1.07 0.44 0.05 1.14 0.39 0.03 1.06 0.38 0.04 1.12
61

Table 8. Table showing comparisons between hindcast top 5 percent of significant wave height data, in 

meters, at the Kauai point and historical significant wave height data from selected NDBC stations 

throughout the Hawaiian Islands by months.

[DJF=December-February, MAM=March-May, JJA=June-August, and SON=September-November; NDBC, 

National Data Buoy Center; statistics shown are mean absolute error (MAE), standard deviation (Std), and normalized 

variance (nVar)]

Time 

Period

NDBC 51001 NDBC 51002 NDBC 51003 NDBC 51004

MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar MAE Std nVar

DJF 0.08 0.07 0.78 1.39 0.33 3.10 1.39 0.28 2.29 1.39 0.22 1.90

MAM 0.05 0.02 1.07 0.44 0.08 1.38 0.58 0.14 1.10 0.66 0.12 0.54

JJA 0.53 0.28 4.14 0.23 0.08 1.39 0.67 0.15 1.74 0.23 0.03 0.84

SON 0.33 0.36 0.32 0.84 0.19 1.76 0.83 0.17 1.39 0.72 0.07 1.07

Yearly 0.59 0.02 1.05 0.59 0.03 1.05 0.54 0.02 1.05 0.52 0.02 1.02
62

Figure 1. Map showing the locations of the 25 modeled points within the tropical Pacific Ocean used in this 

study. 
63

Figure 2. Map showing the locations of selected National Data Buoy Center stations, in purple, and 

modeled points, in red, within in the Hawaiian Island Chain.
64

Figure 3. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-

2005) Molokai point significant wave heights (Hs) in meters, from each GCM-driven WW3 model run 

with the observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. A. Comparison of station 

51001 significant wave height cumulative density function with hindcasted Molokai WW3 generated 

cumulative density functions. B. Comparison of station 51002 significant wave height cumulative density 

function with hindcasted Molokai WW3 generated cumulative density functions. C. Comparison of station 

51003 significant wave height cumulative density function with hindcasted Molokai WW3 generated 

cumulative density functions. D. Comparison of station 51004 significant wave height cumulative density 

function with hindcasted Molokai WW3 generated cumulative density functions.
65

Figure 4. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-

2005) Big Island of Hawaii point significant wave heights (Hs) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 

model run with the observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. A. Comparison 

of station 51001 significant wave height cumulative density function with hindcasted Big Island of Hawaii 

WW3 generated cumulative density functions. B. Comparison of station 51002 significant wave height 

cumulative density function with hindcasted Big Island of Hawaii WW3 generated cumulative density 

functions. C. Comparison of station 51003 significant wave height cumulative density function with 

hindcasted Big Island of Hawaii WW3 generated cumulative density functions. D. Comparison of station 

51004 significant wave height cumulative density function with hindcasted Big Island of Hawaii WW3 

generated cumulative density functions.
66

Figure 5. Plots showing comparisons of the empirical cumulative density functions of hindcasted (1986-

2005) Kauai point significant wave heights (Hs) in meters from each GCM-driven WW3 model run with 

the observed historical cumulative density function at each NDBC station. A. Comparison of station 

51001 significant wave height cumulative density function with hindcasted Kauai WW3 generated 

cumulative density functions. B. Comparison of station 51002 significant wave height cumulative density 

function with hindcasted Kauai WW3 generated cumulative density functions. C. Comparison of station 

51003 significant wave height cumulative density function with hindcasted Kauai WW3 generated 

cumulative density functions. D. Comparison of station 51004 significant wave height cumulative density 

function with hindcasted Kauai WW3 generated cumulative density functions.
67

Figure 6. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
68

Figure 7. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2026–

2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
69

Figure 8. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2026–

2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
70

Figure 9. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
71

Figure 10. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
72

Figure 11. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
73

Figure 12. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
74

Figure 13. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
75

Figure 14. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
76

Figure 15. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2026–

2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
77

Figure 16. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2026–

2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
78

Figure 17. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
79

Figure 18. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
80

Figure 19. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
81

Figure 20. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
82

Figure 21. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted 

values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
83

Figure 22. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
84

Figure 23. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2081–

2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
85

Figure 24. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2081–

2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
86

Figure 25. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
87

Figure 26. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
88

Figure 27. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
89

Figure 28. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
90

Figure 29. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
91

Figure 30. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
92

Figure 31. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2081–

2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
93

Figure 32. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 2081–

2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
94

Figure 33. Map showing forecasted differences in mean significant wave height and variance in significant 

wave height for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in significant wave height during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
95

Figure 34. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
96

Figure 35. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
97

Figure 36. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond 

to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in 

significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters.
98

Figure 37. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights 

and variance in the top 5 percent of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted 

values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean significant wave heights during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

variance in significant wave height during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in 

meters.
99

Figure 38. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
100

Figure 39. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean peak wave 

periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted 

for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
101

Figure 40. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
102

Figure 41. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
103

Figure 42. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
104

Figure 43. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
105

Figure 44. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
106

Figure 45. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
107

Figure 46. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
108

Figure 47. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean peak wave 

periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted 

for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
109

Figure 48. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
110

Figure 49. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
111

Figure 50. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
112

Figure 51. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
113

Figure 52. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
114

Figure 53. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
115

Figure 54. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
116

Figure 55. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean peak wave 

periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted 

for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
117

Figure 56. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
118

Figure 57. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
119

Figure 58. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
120

Figure 59. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
121

Figure 60. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
122

Figure 61. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
123

Figure 62. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
124

Figure 63. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean peak wave 

periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted 

for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
125

Figure 64. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
126

Figure 65. Map showing forecasted differences in mean peak wave period and variance in peak wave 

period for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
127

Figure 66. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
128

Figure 67. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
129

Figure 68. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean 

peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to 

the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 from those 

hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
130

Figure 69. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean peak wave period of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and variance in the peak wave period of top 5 percent of significant wave 

heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled 

mean peak wave periods during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes 

correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in peak wave period during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in seconds.
131

Figure 70. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
132

Figure 71. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–

2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
133

Figure 72. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–

2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
134

Figure 73. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
135

Figure 74. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
136

Figure 75. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
137

Figure 76. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
138

Figure 77. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
139

Figure 78. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
140

Figure 79. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–

2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
141

Figure 80. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–

2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
142

Figure 81. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
143

Figure 82. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
144

Figure 83. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
145

Figure 84. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
146

Figure 85. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2026–2045 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
147

Figure 86. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
148

Figure 87. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–

2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
149

Figure 88. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–

2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
150

Figure 89. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
151

Figure 90. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
152

Figure 91. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
153

Figure 92. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
154

Figure 93. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
155

Figure 94. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
156

Figure 95. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–

2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
157

Figure 96. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the June-July season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave 

directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–

2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The 

colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard deviation 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in 

degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
158

Figure 97. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of significant wave heights and 

the standard deviation of wave directions of significant wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from 

hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. 

Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each point where 

RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are 

black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wave direction standard 

deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are 

in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
159

Figure 98. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
160

Figure 99. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
161

Figure 100. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
162

Figure 101. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wave directions of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights and the standard deviation of wave directions of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wave directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP 2081–2100 mean wave directions are red and 1976–

2005 hindcasted mean wave directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wave direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wave directions are “heading towards”.
163

Figure 102. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
164

Figure 103. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
165

Figure 104. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
166

Figure 105. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
167

Figure 106. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
168

Figure 107. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
169

Figure 108. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
170

Figure 109. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
171

Figure 110. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
172

Figure 111. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
173

Figure 112. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
174

Figure 113. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
175

Figure 114. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
176

Figure 115. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
177

Figure 116. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2026–2045 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
178

Figure 117. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the 

September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
179

Figure 118. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
180

Figure 119. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
181

Figure 120. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
182

Figure 121. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
183

Figure 122. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

December-February season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
184

Figure 123. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
185

Figure 124. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
186

Figure 125. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

September-November season under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
187

Figure 126. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
188

Figure 127. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
189

Figure 128. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds 

during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. 

Units are in meters per second.
190

Figure 129. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind speed and variance in wind speed for the 

years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 

future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The shapes correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
191

Figure 130. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

December-February season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
192

Figure 131. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
193

Figure 132. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the magnitude 

of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. The 

shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 2081–2100 

from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
194

Figure 133. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds and 

variance in the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the 

September-November season under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. The colors correspond to the 

magnitude of change in modeled mean wind speeds during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. The shapes correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled variance in wind speed during 

2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Units are in meters per second.
195

Figure 134. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating 

from the center of each point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
196

Figure 135. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
197

Figure 136. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
198

Figure 137. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 

1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading 

towards”.
199

Figure 138. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
200

Figure 139. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
201

Figure 140. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
202

Figure 141. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP4.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
203

Figure 142. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating 

from the center of each point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
204

Figure 143. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
205

Figure 144. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
206

Figure 145. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 

1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading 

towards”.
207

Figure 146. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
208

Figure 147. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
209

Figure 148. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
210

Figure 149. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2026–2045 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP8.5 2026–2045 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2026–2045 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
211

Figure 150. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating 

from the center of each point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
212

Figure 151. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
213

Figure 152. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
214

Figure 153. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP4.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 

1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading 

towards”.
215

Figure 154. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
216

Figure 155. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
217

Figure 156. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP4.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
218

Figure 157. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP4.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP4.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
219

Figure 158. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under 

the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating 

from the center of each point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
220

Figure 159. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
221

Figure 160. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the 

RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from 

the center of each point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 

hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in 

modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–

2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
222

Figure 161. Map showing forecasted differences in mean wind directions and the standard deviation of wind 

directions for the years 2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season 

under the RCP8.5 future climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines 

radiating from the center of each point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 

1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of 

change in modeled mean wind direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 

1976–2005. Angular standard deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading 

towards”.
223

Figure 162. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the December-February season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
224

Figure 163. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the March-May season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
225

Figure 164. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the June-August season under the RCP8.5 future climatic 

scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of each 

point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean wind 

directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind direction 

standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard deviation 

units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
226

Figure 165. Map showing forecasted differences in the mean wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds and the standard deviation of wind directions of the top 5 percent of wind speeds for the years 

2081–2100 from hindcasted values during the September-November season under the RCP8.5 future 

climatic scenario. Mean wind directions at each point are indicated by lines radiating from the center of 

each point where RCP8.5 2081–2100 mean wind directions are red and 1976–2005 hindcasted mean 

wind directions are black. The colors correspond to the magnitude of change in modeled mean wind 

direction standard deviation during 2081–2100 from those hindcasted for 1976–2005. Angular standard 

deviation units are in degrees. Mean wind directions are “heading towards”.
227

Appendix A. Wave Height, Wave Period, and Wave Direction Statistics

Appendix A1. Table showing American Samoa monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for 

significant wave height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.0±0.7 2.0±0.7 2.1±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.3±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.3±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.0±0.5

RCP4.5 - mid 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.0±0.5

RCP8.5 - mid 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.0±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.0±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 2.0±0.7 2.0±0.7 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.5 2.3±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.5

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.2±1.1 4.0±1.5 3.8±0.8 3.7±0.6 4.1±0.6 4.1±0.5 4.0±0.5 4.0±0.4 3.8±0.4 3.8±0.4 3.7±0.5 3.4±0.8

RCP4.5 - mid 3.9±1.1 3.7±1.0 3.7±0.9 3.9±0.6 3.9±0.5 4.0±0.4 4.0±0.3 3.9±0.3 4.1±0.4 3.8±0.3 3.9±0.6 3.3±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 3.8±0.9 4.1±1.0 4.0±1.0 3.7±0.5 3.9±0.4 4.0±0.4 4.1±0.4 4.1±0.5 4.0±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.7±0.6 4.2±1.2

RCP4.5 - end 3.8±0.9 3.9±0.9 3.7±0.9 4.0±0.7 4.3±0.6 4.0±0.4 4.1±0.5 4.0±0.4 4.0±0.4 3.9±0.5 3.7±0.6 3.9±1.1

RCP8.5 - end 4.2±1.3 4.3±1.0 3.7±0.9 3.5±0.5 4.1±0.6 4.2±0.4 4.0±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.1±0.4 3.8±0.4 3.4±0.5 3.4±0.5

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±3 12±2 12±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP4.5 - mid 12±3 12±3 12±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP8.5 - mid 12±3 12±2 12±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP4.5 - end 12±3 12±2 12±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP8.5 - end 12±3 12±3 12±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 10±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 10±1 10±3

RCP4.5 - mid 11±3 11±3 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 10±2 10±3

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 35±50 37±63 90±75 130±43 138±31 134±28 133±27 129±27 128±25 122±28 101±43 60±46

RCP4.5 - mid 37±49 33±57 76±75 129±45 135±27 130±28 131±26 128±25 126±23 124±25 105±42 67±50

RCP8.5 - mid 43±45 38±59 89±79 131±40 136±26 137±27 132±28 133±26 127±24 123±25 103±38 64±50

RCP4.5 - end 40±49 30±62 74±76 129±45 135±27 131±26 131±27 129±25 128±22 125±26 104±40 67±49

RCP8.5 - end 44±47 38±60 79±79 130±41 136±27 131±24 131±25 128±24 127±22 123±23 108±34 66±44

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 11±78 1±92 84±96 128±39 121±33 126±23 130±22 122±16 118±23 118±25 106±35 70±58

RCP4.5 - mid 0±71 353±65 74±103 130±50 130±23 123±23 128±19 125±16 119±14 118±19 104±37 94±56

RCP8.5 - mid 37±71 345±82 57±93 130±34 128±24 129±23 127±24 128±17 122±16 117±23 100±40 87±52

RCP4.5 - end 22±83 352±75 61±90 116±56 125±21 129±26 125±18 125±23 122±17 118±18 109±32 88±54

RCP8.5 - end 16±76 340±70 358±06 127±48 122±28 129±18 124±19 125±19 123±20 116±17 110±31 89±39
228

Appendix A2. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the American 

Samoa location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 5.92 6.86 8.56 5.67 6.69 8.76 5.91 6.91 8.90 5.78 6.94 9.50 5.90 6.79 8.47

5-year 6.50 8.27 12.03 6.10 7.94 12.42 6.32 8.07 12.16 6.15 8.18 13.59 6.30 7.83 11.26

10-year 6.97 9.64 16.02 6.43 9.10 16.61 6.62 9.09 15.68 6.41 9.27 18.18 6.58 8.74 14.21

20-year 7.46 11.32 21.77 6.74 10.48 22.60 6.90 10.24 20.47 6.66 10.51 24.65 6.85 9.78 18.16

50-year 8.15 14.16 33.45 7.16 12.72 34.68 7.25 12.03 29.55 6.95 12.44 37.44 7.20 11.37 25.52

100-year 8.71 16.89 46.89 7.47 14.79 48.48 7.50 13.59 39.35 7.15 14.14 51.80 7.45 12.76 33.32
229

Appendix A3. Table showing Kauai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 3.5±1.0 3.4±1.0 2.9±0.8 2.5±0.7 2.1±0.6 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.2±0.6 2.6±0.7 3.0±0.8 3.3±0.9

RCP4.5 - mid 3.5±1.0 3.4±1.0 3.0±0.8 2.5±0.7 2.1±0.6 2.0±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.6 2.5±0.7 3.0±0.8 3.3±0.9

RCP8.5 - mid 3.4±1.0 3.3±1.0 2.9±0.8 2.5±0.7 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.5±0.8 3.0±0.8 3.3±0.9

RCP4.5 - end 3.4±1.0 3.4±1.0 3.0±0.8 2.5±0.7 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.5±0.7 3.0±0.8 3.3±0.9

RCP8.5 - end 3.3±1.0 3.2±1.0 2.8±0.8 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.4 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.4±0.7 2.8±0.8 3.2±0.9

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 6.1±0.7 6.0±0.7 5.0±0.5 4.2±0.5 3.5±0.3 3.4±0.4 3.3±0.4 3.4±0.5 3.6±0.3 4.5±0.5 5.1±0.6 5.5±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 6.2±0.8 5.9±0.6 5.0±0.6 4.2±0.3 3.6±0.6 3.1±0.2 3.3±0.5 3.4±0.4 3.5±0.5 4.5±0.7 5.0±0.4 5.8±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 5.9±0.7 5.8±0.6 5.0±0.6 4.1±0.4 3.3±0.3 3.2±0.3 3.2±0.5 3.4±0.4 3.5±0.4 4.6±0.6 5.0±0.5 5.6±0.5

RCP4.5 - end 5.9±0.6 6.1±0.7 5.0±0.5 4.2±0.5 3.4±0.3 3.1±0.3 3.3±0.7 3.9±0.9 3.6±0.6 4.4±0.7 4.8±0.4 5.5±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 5.8±0.6 5.8±0.8 4.9±0.5 3.9±0.3 3.3±0.3 3.0±0.2 3.4±0.7 3.4±0.8 3.5±0.8 4.1±0.6 4.8±0.6 5.6±0.5

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 13±2 12±2 12±2 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 12±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 13±2 13±2 12±2 11±3 11±3 10±3 9±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 12±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - mid 13±2 12±2 12±2 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 12±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 13±2 13±2 12±2 11±3 11±3 10±3 9.8±3 9.9±3 10±3 11±3 12±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - end 13±2 12±2 12±2 11±3 11±3 11±4 10±3 10±4 11±3 11±3 11±2 12±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 15±2 15±2 13±3 11±3 10±3 8±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 13±3 14±2

RCP4.5 - mid 15±2 15±2 14±3 11±3 10±3 8±2 9±2 10±2 9±2 11±2 13±3 15±2

RCP8.5 - mid 15±2 15±2 13±3 11±3 9±3 9±3 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 14±3 14±2

RCP4.5 - end 15±2 15±2 13±2 12±3 10±3 9±3 9±2 10±2 9±1 11±2 13±3 15±2

RCP8.5 - end 16±2 15±2 13±3 12±3 10±3 9±3 9±2 10±3 10±2 11±2 12±3 15±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 336±45 335±47 7±55 45±50 75±43 91±25 93±20 92±29 77±41 51±42 22±47 356±50

RCP4.5 - mid 334±43 340±48 6±54 49±47 74±47 92±27 92±19 93±28 83±40 51±46 24±46 354±47

RCP8.5 - mid 339±45 339±45 2±52 42±49 74±45 92±29 94±24 95±31 83±44 49±45 21±44 357±48

RCP4.5 - end 332±42 336±47 6±51 36±50 71±46 94±28 94±23 96±29 82±42 54±43 25±43 356±49

RCP8.5 - end 336±42 335±42 1±52 46±48 73±49 96±26 96±22 98±30 86±41 55±41 31±43 356±48

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 316±23 317±25 356±55 37±46 68±29 82±14 86±16 88±36 71±39 44±54 3±51 328±43

RCP4.5 - mid 316±23 321±33 339±47 52±41 68±29 81±16 89±24 87±35 82±44 55±51 7±51 328±34

RCP8.5 - mid 321±31 323±34 342±53 40±44 68±23 80±12 87±21 91±38 80±52 53±43 0±40 335±47

RCP4.5 - end 314±17 316±30 343±45 21±48 72±26 90±19 85±23 105±57 82±48 48±54 18±49 331±39

RCP8.5 - end 318±24 318±26 343±47 33±42 63±35 87±17 91±28 91±39 101±68 58±53 21±47 345±51
230

Appendix A4. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kauai location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 7.51 8.06 8.88 7.41 8.17 9.53 7.26 7.89 8.94 7.22 7.81 8.83 7.27 7.89 8.88

5-year 7.83 8.65 9.99 7.70 8.89 11.26 7.50 8.42 10.08 7.47 8.38 10.17 7.51 8.38 9.87

10-year 8.02 9.07 10.89 7.89 9.42 12.79 7.64 8.76 10.95 7.62 8.80 11.35 7.64 8.69 10.58

20-year 8.19 9.46 11.82 8.04 9.94 14.52 7.74 9.07 11.83 7.75 9.23 12.70 7.74 8.95 11.26

50-year 8.37 9.95 13.12 8.21 10.61 17.20 7.85 9.43 13.00 7.90 9.78 14.79 7.84 9.23 12.10

100-year 8.49 10.29 14.16 8.32 11.11 19.55 7.91 9.66 13.91 7.99 10.19 16.64 7.89 9.41 12.70
231

Appendix A5. Table showing Big Island of Hawaii monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for 

significant wave height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.8±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.8±0.8 2.9±0.8

RCP4.5 - mid 2.8±0.7 2.8±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.4 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.3±0.7 2.8±0.8 2.9±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 2.8±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.2±0.4 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.3±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.9±0.8

RCP4.5 - end 2.7±0.6 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.1±0.5 2.3±0.6 2.7±0.8 2.9±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.1±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.2±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.2±0.6 2.6±0.7 2.8±0.8

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.6±0.5 4.5±0.5 4.5±0.4 3.9±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.5±0.4 3.5±0.6 3.7±0.6 4.4±0.5 4.9±0.5 4.7±0.4

RCP4.5 - mid 4.5±0.5 4.7±0.6 4.3±0.3 4.1±0.3 3.4±0.4 3.2±0.3 3.4±0.5 3.4±0.5 3.4±0.5 4.2±0.7 4.8±0.4 4.7±0.5

RCP8.5 - mid 4.7±0.5 4.6±0.5 4.3±0.5 3.9±0.4 3.3±0.2 3.1±0.3 3.3±0.4 3.5±0.5 3.4±0.6 4.2±0.5 4.5±0.4 5.0±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 4.4±0.5 4.5±0.5 4.3±0.4 3.9±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.2±0.3 3.6±0.8 3.8±1.0 3.5±0.6 4.1±0.7 4.8±0.5 4.9±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 4.4±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.1±0.4 3.7±0.3 3.1±0.3 3.1±0.4 3.4±0.5 3.6±0.7 3.3±0.6 3.9±0.6 4.5±0.7 5.1±0.8

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±3 12±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 12±3

RCP4.5 - mid 12±3 12±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 9±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP8.5 - mid 12±3 12±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP4.5 - end 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 10±3 9.9±3 9.7±3 9.7±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP8.5 - end 12±3 12±3 11±3 10±3 11±3 10±4 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 12±3 12±3 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±1 10±1 11±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - mid 13±3 11±3 10±2 10±1 10±2 9±2 9±1 10±2 9±1 10±1 11±2 12±3

RCP8.5 - mid 12±3 11±3 11±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 10±2 11±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - end 12±3 12±3 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 11±2

RCP8.5 - end 13±3 12±3 10±2 10±2 9±2 10±3 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 11±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 29±53 25±55 55±47 75±33 91±27 92±17 92±18 92±21 85±31 69±33 57±36 47±44

RCP4.5 - mid 28±51 31±52 55±45 72±31 89±26 94±18 92±16 92±23 90±29 70±36 53±35 44±42

RCP8.5 - mid 31±50 31±52 50±48 73±34 90±25 94±19 93±19 93±23 88±31 68±40 51±37 48±43

RCP4.5 - end 29±54 23±54 52±44 72±34 90±25 95±18 94±18 95±24 90±33 70±37 52±36 45±43

RCP8.5 - end 25±51 21±53 49±46 73±32 91±27 97±18 95±17 97±24 92±32 72±37 56±34 43±44

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 56±46 50±49 69±23 75±20 84±15 87±12 86±18 81±16 76±28 73±24 69±26 64±26

RCP4.5 - mid 33±54 59±43 70±28 74±14 84±14 87±12 92±22 82±18 87±29 74±30 68±20 56±37

RCP8.5 - mid 57±40 59±40 67±28 75±20 86±15 88±12 86±20 86±28 81±27 68±28 65±33 69±22

RCP4.5 - end 52±50 44±49 69±28 75±23 85±13 92±18 94±24 97±41 95±45 73±36 68±19 73±28

RCP8.5 - end 49±48 38±56 63±31 76±19 81±17 91±17 94±20 93±30 88±40 75±40 66±21 70±25
232

Appendix A6. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Big Island of 

Hawaii location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 5.83 6.27 6.95 5.79 6.32 7.21 5.70 6.20 7.04 5.95 6.72 8.11 5.64 6.45 8.11

5-year 6.04 6.68 7.77 6.05 6.88 8.47 5.91 6.66 8.08 6.14 7.22 9.42 5.87 7.15 10.27

10-year 6.16 6.95 8.40 6.22 7.32 9.60 6.04 7.00 8.95 6.25 7.54 10.42 6.01 7.70 12.38

20-year 6.25 7.20 9.04 6.37 7.77 10.92 6.14 7.32 9.90 6.32 7.81 11.43 6.13 8.26 15.00

50-year 6.35 7.49 9.90 6.54 8.37 12.99 6.26 7.72 11.29 6.39 8.11 12.77 6.26 9.02 19.48

100-year 6.41 7.69 10.57 6.66 8.83 14.86 6.33 8.00 12.46 6.42 8.30 13.79 6.35 9.61 23.84
233

Appendix A7. Table showing Midway monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 4.1±1.5 3.9±1.5 3.1±1.1 2.4±0.8 1.9±0.5 1.8±0.4 1.9±0.6 2.0±0.7 2.2±0.8 2.7±1.0 3.2±1.1 3.8±1.3

RCP4.5 - mid 4.2±1.5 3.9±1.4 3.2±1.1 2.5±0.8 1.9±0.5 1.7±0.4 1.9±0.6 1.9±0.7 2.1±0.7 2.5±0.9 3.1±1.1 3.7±1.4

RCP8.5 - mid 4.0±1.4 3.8±1.4 3.2±1.1 2.4±0.8 1.8±0.5 1.7±0.4 1.9±0.6 1.9±0.7 2.1±0.8 2.6±0.9 3.0±1.0 3.7±1.4

RCP4.5 - end 4.1±1.4 4.0±1.5 3.2±1.1 2.4±0.8 1.9±0.5 1.7±0.4 1.8±0.5 1.9±0.8 2.0±0.7 2.5±0.9 3.0±1.0 3.7±1.4

RCP8.5 - end 4.0±1.5 3.8±1.4 3.1±1.1 2.3±0.7 1.8±0.5 1.6±0.4 1.8±0.5 1.8±0.7 2.0±0.7 2.4±0.8 2.8±0.9 3.6±1.3

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 8.1±1.2 7.9±0.9 6.2±0.8 4.6±0.7 3.3±0.4 2.9±0.4 3.5±0.7 4.0±0.9 4.5±0.7 5.3±0.8 6.1±0.9 7.4±0.9

RCP4.5 - mid 8.1±1.0 7.8±0.9 6.3±0.8 4.5±0.6 3.3±0.5 2.9±0.5 3.6±0.9 4.1±0.9 4.2±0.9 5.1±0.8 6.2±1.0 7.5±0.9

RCP8.5 - mid 7.7±0.9 7.4±0.8 6.3±0.8 4.5±0.7 3.2±0.5 2.7±0.3 3.4±0.7 4.1±0.8 4.6±1.0 5.0±0.7 5.9±0.9 7.5±1.0

RCP4.5 - end 7.9±1.0 8.0±1.2 6.2±0.8 4.6±0.7 3.3±0.4 2.7±0.3 3.3±0.7 4.5±1.2 4.2±1.1 5.1±0.9 5.9±1.0 7.3±1.0

RCP8.5 - end 7.9±1.2 7.5±1.1 6.2±0.8 4.3±0.6 3.1±0.4 2.6±0.4 3.1±0.6 4.0±1.3 4.2±0.8 4.7±0.9 5.3±0.7 7.0±0.8

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 9.8±2 9.7±2 9.6±2 9.6±2 9.4±2 9.9±2 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 14±2 14±1 14±2 12±2 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±2 10±1 11±2 14±2 14±2

RCP4.5 - mid 15±1 14±1 14±2 12±2 11±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 13±2 14±2

RCP8.5 - mid 14±2 14±2 14±2 12±2 10±2 10±2 10±1 11±2 10±1 11±2 13±2 14±2

RCP4.5 - end 15±2 15±1 13±2 13±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 13±2 14±2

RCP8.5 - end 15±2 14±1 14±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 13±2 15±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 313±44 310±49 330±67 34±71 79±64 110±39 109±23 108±34 82±48 49±53 359±61 326±54

RCP4.5 - mid 311±40 311±47 331±64 39±70 71±71 110±47 111±24 111±28 87±46 56±50 8±60 325±51

RCP8.5 - mid 314±46 314±49 326±60 22±75 70±70 109±51 111±27 113±35 84±50 58±49 11±55 326±50

RCP4.5 - end 310±38 312±47 331±62 18±72 69±72 110±48 113±28 113±30 87±46 61±49 12±60 329±52

RCP8.5 - end 311±41 310±43 330±64 32±72 75±68 113±45 113±27 116±32 93±46 62±48 19±56 330±51

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 302±19 300±16 310±29 349±61 40±64 98±37 109±29 120±60 81±51 38±53 329±39 308±25

RCP4.5 - mid 303±21 301±13 308±27 6±68 22±63 100±58 113±40 118±44 83±53 59±59 341±52 310±28

RCP8.5 - mid 306±36 302±17 307±33 342±55 36±56 98±51 111±39 137±71 73±49 56±49 347±50 308±26

RCP4.5 - end 301±17 302±25 311±40 332±52 35±75 100±53 121±48 133±54 86±61 56±53 335±54 315±29

RCP8.5 - end 301±12 303±20 307±20 353±60 14±63 97±47 110±40 155±72 95±69 59±51 357±51 315±22
234

Appendix A8. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Midway 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 10.33 11.17 12.46 10.03 10.93 12.50 9.54 10.49 12.27 10.49 11.57 13.28 9.69 10.84 12.90

5-year 10.85 12.18 14.42 10.26 11.49 13.86 9.81 11.21 14.19 11.00 12.61 15.41 10.10 11.85 15.41

10-year 11.20 12.95 16.12 10.37 11.82 14.84 9.96 11.70 15.79 11.32 13.34 17.11 10.35 12.58 17.58

20-year 11.52 13.72 18.02 10.45 12.10 15.77 10.08 12.15 17.54 11.58 14.02 18.91 10.55 13.29 20.02

50-year 11.88 14.74 20.89 10.53 12.39 16.93 10.20 12.70 20.08 11.86 14.86 21.42 10.77 14.18 23.72

100-year 12.13 15.52 23.37 10.56 12.56 17.76 10.26 13.07 22.21 12.03 15.45 23.43 10.90 14.83 26.93
235

Appendix A9. Table showing Chuuk monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.1±0.6 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.6±0.6 2.1±0.7 2.6±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.1±0.6 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.5 1.5±0.5 2.0±0.6 2.5±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.1±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.5 1.5±0.5 2.0±0.7 2.5±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.4±0.6 1.4±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.5±0.6 1.9±0.6 2.4±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.5±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.4±0.5 1.8±0.6 2.3±0.6

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.2±0.4 4.1±0.5 4.0±0.6 3.6±0.5 2.9±0.5 2.9±0.7 2.9±0.7 3.2±0.9 3.1±0.6 3.4±0.5 4.1±0.6 4.3±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 4.3±0.5 4.0±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.5±0.5 2.9±0.6 2.6±0.5 3.1±0.7 3.3±1.0 3.0±0.8 3.0±0.5 3.6±0.5 4.3±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 4.1±0.4 4.3±0.6 3.9±0.5 3.4±0.4 2.8±0.5 2.8±0.7 2.9±0.7 3.2±0.8 2.9±0.8 3.0±0.5 3.9±0.6 4.4±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 3.9±0.3 4.1±0.5 3.9±0.5 3.3±0.4 2.7±0.3 3.0±0.7 3.1±0.7 3.2±0.6 3.1±0.7 3.1±0.5 3.6±0.6 4.1±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 3.9±0.4 3.9±0.5 3.7±0.4 3.2±0.4 2.8±0.4 2.7±0.5 3.1±0.9 3.2±0.7 3.1±0.9 2.9±0.8 3.6±0.5 3.9±0.5

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 11±1 11±2 11±1 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 11±2 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - mid 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 11±2 11±1

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±1 10±0.9 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 10±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±1 11±2 10±1 10±1 9±0.8 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 10±0.9

RCP8.5 - end 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±0.8 9±0.8 9±1 8±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±1 10±0.9

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 54±14 53±16 55±17 60±16 66±22 76±30 87±43 103±51 80±48 51±38 50±26 54±16

RCP4.5 - mid 53±18 53±16 56±14 60±12 66±18 78±25 94±45 109±49 93±47 55±42 49±24 53±21

RCP8.5 - mid 53±15 54±15 56±16 60±15 67±17 78±29 92±46 110±54 94±52 54±40 51±22 54±17

RCP4.5 - end 53±15 51±17 56±14 59±15 66±17 77±28 91±50 108±53 93±51 54±43 50±23 54±18

RCP8.5 - end 52±17 53±17 56±14 62±11 68±14 80±27 91±44 110±48 101±50 61±38 53±21 55±17

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 54±13 52±20 48±34 54±34 62±58 95±101 220±102 216±52 258±90 32±85 54±52 58±13

RCP4.5 - mid 56±23 57±18 55±21 55±25 67±43 82±64 212±69 212±52 228±61 306±111 46±53 59±44

RCP8.5 - mid 56±12 54±13 52±25 57±18 66±46 128±85 222±80 221±53 226±47 324±98 51±57 63±31

RCP4.5 - end 55±12 49±33 56±17 57±29 68±44 96±96 232±52 229±41 245±51 298±104 51±54 60±30

RCP8.5 - end 53±22 57±20 53±28 63±17 68±38 93±68 204±84 219±47 219±59 343103 63±49 62±31
236

Appendix A10. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Chuuk location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 5.56 6.25 7.41 5.38 6.03 7.19 5.46 6.34 8.08 5.06 5.70 6.94 5.15 5.94 7.53

5-year 5.95 7.12 9.34 5.59 6.55 8.47 5.72 7.09 10.24 5.32 6.39 8.81 5.45 6.80 10.05

10-year 6.23 7.84 11.23 5.71 6.91 9.52 5.88 7.66 12.24 5.49 6.96 10.71 5.66 7.55 12.73

20-year 6.50 8.63 13.58 5.81 7.24 10.64 6.02 8.22 14.63 5.65 7.59 13.16 5.85 8.39 16.36

50-year 6.83 9.78 17.61 5.91 7.63 12.23 6.16 8.96 18.51 5.84 8.49 17.54 6.09 9.66 23.17

100-year 7.06 10.75 21.55 5.96 7.90 13.54 6.24 9.51 22.11 5.97 9.25 22.00 6.26 10.76 30.45
237

Appendix A11. Table showing Saipan monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.8±0.6 1.7±0.7 1.7±0.9 1.7±1.0 1.7±0.8 2.1±0.9 2.6±0.9 2.8±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.8±0.6 1.7±0.6 1.7±0.9 1.6±0.8 1.6±0.9 1.9±0.7 2.5±0.8 2.7±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 2.6±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.8±0.6 1.8±0.8 1.7±0.9 1.7±1.0 1.6±0.9 1.9±0.7 2.4±0.8 2.8±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.6±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.8±0.5 1.7±0.6 1.7±0.9 1.7±0.9 1.6±0.7 1.9±0.8 2.5±0.8 2.6±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.5±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.3±0.6 2.1±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.7±0.6 1.8±0.8 1.6±1.0 1.6±0.8 1.8±0.7 2.3±0.8 2.6±0.7

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.3±0.4 4.3±0.4 4.4±0.8 3.9±0.6 3.5±0.8 3.5±0.9 4.5±1.0 4.9±1.3 4.3±1.0 4.6±0.9 5.0±1.0 4.6±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 4.3±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.2±0.6 3.8±1.0 3.3±0.6 3.4±1.0 4.4±1.0 4.1±0.9 4.5±1.3 3.9±0.7 4.5±0.8 4.8±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 4.3±0.5 4.3±0.5 4.2±0.6 3.7±0.4 3.2±0.5 4.2±1.4 4.5±1.0 4.7±1.1 4.4±1.3 4.0±0.8 4.7±1.0 4.8±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 4.2±0.4 4.4±0.5 4.2±0.4 3.7±0.4 2.9±0.4 3.4±1.0 4.5±1.2 4.7±1.1 3.9±0.8 4.0±0.9 4.6±0.9 4.4±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 4.3±0.4 4.1±0.4 3.9±0.6 3.4±0.4 3.1±0.5 3.4±1.2 4.3±0.9 4.7±1.3 4.3±0.9 3.8±0.8 4.5±0.7 4.4±0.7

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 10±1 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±1 10±2 10±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - mid 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±0.9 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±1

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±0.9 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 11±2 11±1 10±1

RCP8.5 - end 10±1 9±1 10±1 10±0.9 9±0.8 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 10±1

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 64±23 61±23 69±20 76±13 81±15 85±24 92±50 102±68 75±59 66±35 72±23 70±21

RCP4.5 - mid 64±24 63±22 69±18 75±11 80±13 87±22 94±43 98±72 77±65 63±41 69±22 69±21

RCP8.5 - mid 64±23 64±22 70±18 75±14 81±10 89±26 93±47 111±72 77±73 63±37 70±21 70±22

RCP4.5 - end 64±24 62±23 69±17 75±13 81±12 87±20 95±49 108±69 78±72 63±37 70±19 70±18

RCP8.5 - end 63±24 63±23 68±17 76±12 82±11 89±24 93±43 107±61 83±73 65±41 71±18 70±19

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 63±18 57±27 67±23 72±19 85±28 108±68 204±64 205±55 194±93 81±53 81±40 75±25

RCP4.5 - mid 64±23 64±14 69±19 73±11 81±22 111±52 205±76 218±60 218±84 69±75 74±34 70±25

RCP8.5 - mid 62±18 64±16 68±15 73±13 82±14 128±63 210±64 224±45 229±52 83±63 82±35 77±21

RCP4.5 - end 66±16 54±26 66±15 71±11 82±17 103±55 193±76 224±53 235±67 78±70 76±35 73±21

RCP8.5 - end 65±18 66±16 68±14 74±11 82±12 112±50 202±73 213±53 209±68 76±70 82±28 78±23
238

Appendix A12. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Saipan 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 7.39 8.27 9.59 6.95 8.04 9.89 7.06 8.17 10.12 6.70 7.81 9.86 6.90 7.96 9.74

5-year 7.90 9.22 11.32 7.45 9.14 12.34 7.50 9.21 12.59 7.04 8.71 12.18 7.36 8.97 11.98

10-year 8.22 9.86 12.64 7.77 9.96 14.46 7.77 9.98 14.76 7.24 9.33 14.15 7.65 9.70 13.87

20-year 8.48 10.46 13.99 8.04 10.77 16.86 8.00 10.73 17.22 7.40 9.92 16.31 7.89 10.41 15.94

50-year 8.76 11.17 15.79 8.34 11.83 20.50 8.26 11.70 20.97 7.57 10.64 19.52 8.15 11.30 18.99

100-year 8.93 11.65 17.17 8.54 12.61 23.66 8.41 12.42 24.26 7.66 11.14 22.24 8.31 11.95 21.57
239

Appendix A13. Table showing Asuncion monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.5±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.3±0.7 2.0±0.6 1.7±0.6 1.7±0.7 1.9±1.0 1.9±1.0 1.9±0.9 2.2±0.9 2.5±0.8 2.6±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.5±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.3±0.7 2.1±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.7±0.6 1.8±0.9 1.7±0.8 1.8±1.0 2.1±0.8 2.5±0.8 2.5±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 2.5±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.2±0.6 2.0±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.7±0.8 1.8±1.0 1.8±1.0 1.8±1.0 2.1±0.8 2.5±0.9 2.6±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.4±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.3±0.7 2.0±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.7±0.6 1.8±0.9 1.8±1.0 1.7±0.8 2.1±0.9 2.5±0.8 2.5±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.4±0.7 2.3±0.6 2.1±0.6 1.9±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.6±0.6 1.8±0.9 1.8±1.0 1.8±0.9 2.0±0.8 2.3±0.7 2.4±0.7

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.0±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.1±0.8 3.7±0.5 3.3±0.7 3.8±1.0 5.0±1.3 5.2±1.3 4.5±1.0 4.9±1.0 4.9±0.9 4.3±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 4.1±0.4 4.0±0.3 4.0±0.5 3.7±0.9 3.1±0.4 3.5±1.1 4.8±1.1 4.4±1.1 4.9±1.5 4.3±0.8 4.7±0.7 4.7±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 4.2±0.5 4.1±0.4 3.8±0.3 3.6±0.4 3.0±0.5 4.1±1.4 4.9±1.3 4.9±1.1 5.0±1.5 4.5±1.0 4.7±1.6 4.5±0.5

RCP4.5 - end 4.0±0.4 4.2±0.6 3.9±0.4 3.5±0.5 2.8±0.4 3.6±1.0 4.7±1.4 4.9±1.3 4.2±0.9 4.7±1.0 4.6±0.7 4.1±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 4.1±0.4 3.8±0.4 3.6±0.4 3.3±0.4 2.8±0.4 3.5±1.1 4.9±1.1 4.9±1.1 4.8±1.2 4.3±1.0 4.3±0.7 4.2±0.4

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±1 10±1

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±1 11±1 11±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±1 9±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±1 11±2 11±1 11±2

RCP8.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±2 11±1 11±1 11±2

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 10±1 11±2 11±1 11±1 11±1 11±1 11±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±0.9 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±1 11±1 11±1 10±1

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 52±38 49±39 65±32 80±19 88±19 94±22 101±39 104±50 86±41 75±30 75±26 67±32

RCP4.5 - mid 55±37 52±37 65±30 79±18 87±19 97±22 101±35 101±52 87±44 75±34 74±26 65±33

RCP8.5 - mid 53±38 55±38 66±32 78±22 89±17 99±25 103±37 108±55 88±53 73±31 75±24 67±33

RCP4.5 - end 51±39 51±37 66±29 78±21 88±19 97±19 104±40 107±52 87±48 73±32 74±24 68±29

RCP8.5 - end 54±37 53±38 64±29 79±20 89±17 99±22 104±37 109±46 94±54 75±31 77±22 68±31

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 36±45 25±46 61±32 74±20 93±29 112±47 160±64 174±60 125±76 86±46 77±39 65±41

RCP4.5 - mid 36±48 42±39 63±32 74±16 84±24 124±45 152±72 186±87 141±82 83±55 76±35 67±36

RCP8.5 - mid 42±45 52±41 67±30 72±19 90±16 135±55 176±62 203±62 177±84 87±55 84±37 70±37

RCP4.5 - end 50±42 36±43 55±31 74±21 82±24 111±42 163±66 187±76 139±86 84±63 72±32 65±29

RCP8.5 - end 45±47 49±43 62±29 73±20 84±13 117±48 169±69 184±61 173±82 88±57 85±34 73±37
240

Appendix A14. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Asuncion 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 7.86 8.86 10.32 7.29 8.62 10.93 7.58 9.11 11.79 7.01 8.31 10.64 7.05 8.29 10.41

5-year 8.37 9.79 12.02 7.81 9.83 13.74 8.22 10.62 15.36 7.45 9.39 13.32 7.48 9.28 12.67

10-year 8.67 10.39 13.23 8.12 10.69 16.11 8.63 11.77 18.53 7.70 10.15 15.58 7.72 9.93 14.43

20-year 8.89 10.90 14.39 8.38 11.52 18.73 8.99 12.91 22.20 7.91 10.86 18.07 7.91 10.51 16.23

50-year 9.12 11.47 15.83 8.66 12.55 22.59 9.39 14.42 27.92 8.12 11.74 21.73 8.10 11.18 18.69

100-year 9.25 11.84 16.86 8.83 13.29 25.85 9.65 15.56 33.02 8.25 12.36 24.81 8.20 11.63 20.61
241

Appendix A15. Table showing Kosrae monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.3±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.7±0.6 2.1±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.3±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.5 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.6±0.5 2.0±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 2.2±0.5 2.3±0.6 2.1±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.6±0.5 2.0±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.5 1.3±0.4 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.5 1.3±0.5 1.6±0.5 2.0±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.5 1.4±0.4 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.4±0.5 1.9±0.5

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 3.6±0.4 3.5±0.3 3.5±0.4 3.1±0.5 2.5±0.6 2.4±0.4 2.5±0.8 2.6±0.7 2.7±0.6 2.8±0.6 3.3±0.5 3.8±0.5

RCP4.5 - mid 3.5±0.4 3.5±0.5 3.3±0.4 3.0±0.3 2.5±0.3 2.5±0.5 2.5±0.5 2.7±0.7 2.4±0.4 2.6±0.6 3.0±0.5 3.7±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 3.5±0.3 3.8±0.5 3.4±0.4 3.2±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.4±0.3 2.5±0.5 2.8±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.6±0.6 3.1±0.4 3.5±0.4

RCP4.5 - end 3.4±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.3±0.3 2.8±0.3 2.4±0.2 2.6±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.8±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.5 3.0±0.6 3.6±0.4

RCP8.5 - end 3.2±0.2 3.3±0.4 3.2±0.3 2.8±0.3 2.7±0.4 2.6±0.5 2.5±0.6 2.9±0.9 2.4±0.5 2.3±0.4 2.9±0.6 3.2±0.3

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 9.8±2 9.5±2 9.2±2 9.1±2 9.2±2 9.3±2 9.1±1 9.6±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±1

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 8±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 9±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 9±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 9±1

RCP8.5 - end 10±3 9±2 9±2 9±1 8±0.9 8±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 45±18 45±19 50±20 61±23 82±29 104±32 118±33 128±38 117±45 79±49 48±32 44±20

RCP4.5 - mid 45±21 45±19 50±17 61±21 80±27 101±27 119±35 128±36 125±35 90±48 53±34 45±26

RCP8.5 - mid 45±19 47±20 50±21 59±22 79±28 102±30 120±36 134±40 127±42 90±45 51±31 45±21

RCP4.5 - end 44±20 43±22 50±18 61±22 78±25 102±29 119±38 131±42 127±41 87±52 50±34 46±23

RCP8.5 - end 44±21 46±20 51±19 61±16 79±24 101±29 115±37 129±35 124±37 95±43 58±30 48±22

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 49±15 46±17 44±30 53±45 77±68 102±77 181±87 200±66 235±76 264±108 39±68 51±21

RCP4.5 - mid 49±21 48±21 53±15 57±36 69±57 94±63 164±78 202±68 197±68 219±110 48±62 47±41

RCP8.5 - mid 52±18 52±27 54±31 50±45 71±66 103±70 193±80 211±52 223±67 248±91 28±64 52±27

RCP4.5 - end 45±15 45±25 52±27 59±41 66±19 114±65 210±75 222±68 235±58 258±88 352±84 54±34

RCP8.5 - end 46±20 53±15 53±38 61±26 71±51 100±71 163±83 210±59 182±82 19±126 51±52 51±14
242

Appendix A16. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kosrae 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 4.82 5.41 6.36 4.54 5.12 6.17 4.51 5.07 6.13 4.61 5.16 6.08 4.25 4.90 6.20

5-year 5.22 6.22 8.07 4.79 5.75 7.73 4.74 5.67 7.70 4.89 5.76 7.39 4.51 5.64 8.30

10-year 5.50 6.92 9.75 4.97 6.26 9.24 4.89 6.16 9.23 5.08 6.23 8.55 4.69 6.29 10.54

20-year 5.79 7.70 11.86 5.13 6.80 11.10 5.04 6.68 11.17 5.24 6.70 9.90 4.87 7.01 13.56

50-year 6.16 8.85 15.51 5.31 7.57 14.27 5.20 7.43 14.51 5.43 7.34 12.01 5.09 8.12 19.25

100-year 6.43 9.84 19.11 5.44 8.19 17.33 5.31 8.03 17.81 5.56 7.83 13.89 5.24 9.09 25.33
243

Appendix A17. Table showing Palau monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.2±0.5 1.0±0.5 1.0±0.5 1.0±0.6 1.1±0.6 1.4±0.6 1.9±0.7 2.3±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.4±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.6 1.8±0.5 1.2±0.5 1.0±0.5 1.1±0.6 0.98±0.5 1.0±0.5 1.3±0.6 1.7±0.6 2.2±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.2±0.4 1.0±0.5 1.0±0.5 1.0±0.6 1.0±0.5 1.3±0.6 1.7±0.6 2.2±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.2±0.4 1.0±0.5 1.1±0.5 1.0±0.6 1.0±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.7±0.6 2.1±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.3±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.0±0.6 1.6±0.4 1.2±0.5 1.0±0.5 1.1±0.5 1.0±0.6 1.0±0.6 1.2±0.5 1.6±0.6 2.0±0.6

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.3±0.5 4.5±0.6 3.9±0.6 3.0±0.4 2.4±0.4 2.4±0.6 2.7±0.5 3.0±0.7 3.1±0.6 3.3±0.6 4.0±0.8 4.1±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 4.1±0.4 4.0±0.6 3.8±0.6 3.0±0.4 2.3±0.5 2.3±0.6 3.0±0.6 2.5±0.7 2.6±0.7 3.3±0.7 3.5±0.7 4.1±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 4.2±0.4 4.0±0.4 3.8±0.5 3.0±0.6 2.3±0.4 2.6±0.9 2.7±0.6 2.8±0.7 2.8±0.8 2.9±0.5 3.3±0.4 4.1±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 4.2±0.5 4.0±0.5 3.6±0.6 2.9±0.4 2.3±0.4 2.4±0.6 2.8±0.7 3.0±0.7 3.0±0.7 3.1±0.7 3.3±0.4 3.9±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 4.0±0.5 4.0±0.5 3.5±0.3 2.7±0.3 2.3±0.3 2.3±0.6 2.7±0.7 3.0±0.8 2.9±0.9 2.6±0.5 3.4±0.7 3.8±0.5

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±1 10±1

RCP4.5 - mid 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±1

RCP8.5 - mid 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - end 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±1 8±1 9±2 9±1 10±1 9±1

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 8±1 9±2 10±2 11±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±0.8 10±0.9 10±1 10±1 9±1 7±1 8±1 8±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - mid 10±0.9 10±1 10±0.9 10±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 8±1 8±2 9±2 10±2 10±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±1 10±2 10±0.9 9±1 8±1 8±1 8±1 8±1 8±2 10±2 10±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - end 10±1 10±0.8 9±0.8 9±1 8±1 8±1 8±1 8±1 8±2 10±2 10±2 10±1

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 51±18 51±17 57±16 62±16 66±24 73±35 84±47 94±53 64±52 39±42 43±30 52±21

RCP4.5 - mid 50±19 53±16 57±15 63±14 66±18 76±30 92±51 94±50 79±51 41±46 43±32 48±25

RCP8.5 - mid 52±18 53±17 58±16 62±14 67±17 77±37 88±50 102±54 78±55 40±44 43±31 50±24

RCP4.5 - end 51±19 52±15 57±14 62±16 66±19 76±32 88±53 102±55 81±56 38±44 43±29 51±21

RCP8.5 - end 51±18 53±18 57±15 63±13 68±21 76±35 89±49 104±52 86±55 47±43 46±30 50±23

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 43±23 35±27 44±23 57±33 63±60 250±109 239±57 235±50 259±48 284±73 350±79 46±37

RCP4.5 - mid 51±23 52±25 52±25 64±30 69±39 168±97 232±42 229±66 239±68 260±75 351±102 43±56

RCP8.5 - mid 49±25 48±27 56±27 57±29 61±44 216±71 233±47 231±33 238±46 278±71 350±81 51±54

RCP4.5 - end 45±38 46±17 51±25 59±41 65±53 169±99 223±50 235±37 244±44 276±76 348±78 48±48

RCP8.5 - end 49±22 46±23 53±29 62±22 73±53 16±100 220±52 226±36 234±46 279±83 349±94 52±47
244

Appendix A18. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palau location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 5.61 6.16 6.98 5.27 5.85 6.80 5.20 6.01 7.62 5.16 5.74 6.73 5.17 5.75 6.75

5-year 5.96 6.81 8.19 5.50 6.35 7.91 5.44 6.71 9.63 5.41 6.31 8.00 5.38 6.24 7.89

10-year 6.19 7.28 9.19 5.64 6.69 8.79 5.59 7.23 11.51 5.57 6.72 9.08 5.50 6.58 8.82

20-year 6.39 7.75 10.26 5.75 7.01 9.72 5.71 7.75 13.75 5.70 7.12 10.28 5.60 6.89 9.82

50-year 6.62 8.35 11.82 5.86 7.39 11.01 5.84 8.44 17.41 5.85 7.63 12.07 5.70 7.27 11.24

100-year 6.77 8.78 13.10 5.93 7.66 12.04 5.92 8.96 20.82 5.94 8.01 13.59 5.76 7.53 12.39
245

Appendix A19. Table showing Pohnpei monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.6 1.5±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.6±0.6 2.0±0.7 2.5±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.5 1.5±0.6 1.9±0.6 2.4±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.7 2.3±0.6 2.0±0.6 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.3±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.9±0.6 2.4±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.5±0.5 2.5±0.5 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.3±0.6 1.5±0.6 1.8±0.6 2.3±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.4±0.5 2.4±0.5 2.2±0.6 1.9±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.4±0.6 1.3±0.5 1.4±0.5 1.7±0.6 2.2±0.6

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.1±0.4 4.0±0.3 3.9±0.4 3.5±0.5 2.8±0.6 2.8±0.7 2.9±0.8 3.0±0.7 3.2±0.8 3.3±0.5 3.8±0.4 4.3±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 4.0±0.5 3.9±0.3 3.7±0.4 3.4±0.3 2.8±0.4 2.7±0.6 2.9±0.6 3.1±0.9 2.9±0.7 3.1±0.9 3.6±0.6 4.2±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 3.9±0.4 4.3±0.7 3.8±0.5 3.5±0.6 2.9±0.5 2.6±0.4 2.9±0.6 3.2±0.9 2.8±0.7 3.0±0.5 3.7±0.5 4.1±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 3.8±0.3 3.9±0.4 3.7±0.4 3.2±0.4 2.7±0.3 3.0±0.7 2.9±0.7 3.3±1.0 3.1±0.7 3.1±0.6 3.6±0.6 4.0±0.4

RCP8.5 - end 3.7±0.3 3.7±0.4 3.7±0.6 3.1±0.3 2.9±0.5 2.7±0.5 2.9±0.7 3.3±0.9 2.9±0.9 2.8±0.6 3.5±0.6 3.6±0.3

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 10±1 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 9.9±2 9.5±2 9.1±1 8.7±1 8.7±1 8.8±1 9±1 9±1 9.6±1 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 10±2 11±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±1 10±1

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±2 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 10±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 11±2 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 8±0.8 8±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±1

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 48±16 47±18 51±18 58±18 67±24 84±33 99±41 113±47 94±49 55±43 46±27 48±17

RCP4.5 - mid 47±20 48±17 52±15 58±15 68±21 83±27 103±43 118±46 108±45 63±47 46±27 48±23

RCP8.5 - mid 48±17 49±17 52±18 57±17 68±21 84±31 102±43 122±51 106±51 62±43 47±24 48±18

RCP4.5 - end 47±17 45±19 51±16 57±17 67±19 84±30 100±46 118±50 107±49 61±48 46±26 48±19

RCP8.5 - end 46±19 48±19 52±17 59±12 69±18 84±27 98±43 121±45 111±46 69±41 51±23 50±18

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 51±15 47±18 47±33 52±35 57±54 119±94 223±106 224±62 255±80 12±107 50±49 54±14

RCP4.5 - mid 52±24 51±16 53±19 53±29 67±49 81±63 213±82 224±58 223±61 238±117 46±51 52±31

RCP8.5 - mid 53±15 52±19 55±28 51±27 66±53 92±71 219±83 225±47 229±53 269±96 43±54 56±28

RCP4.5 - end 49±14 44±30 54±21 57±35 65±26 108±78 234±68 235±53 245±48 272±96 36±64 58±28

RCP8.5 - end 48±22 53±17 53±34 62±16 66±43 79±58 204±93 229±46 221±64 28±102 52±46 56±17
246

Appendix A20. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Pohnpei 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 5.41 5.88 6.60 5.36 6.04 7.20 5.12 5.83 7.24 5.11 5.86 7.28 4.97 5.70 7.11

5-year 5.79 6.59 7.90 5.62 6.64 8.56 5.42 6.66 9.54 5.41 6.65 9.42 5.20 6.34 8.88

10-year 6.07 7.17 9.11 5.78 7.06 9.67 5.63 7.38 12.01 5.61 7.31 11.58 5.34 6.82 10.51

20-year 6.34 7.80 10.54 5.91 7.45 10.85 5.83 8.21 15.36 5.79 8.02 14.35 5.46 7.29 12.45

50-year 6.70 8.70 12.86 6.04 7.92 12.53 6.09 9.47 21.69 6.01 9.05 19.26 5.59 7.92 15.58

100-year 6.95 9.44 15.01 6.12 8.25 13.91 6.27 10.58 28.49 6.16 9.91 24.21 5.67 8.39 18.47
247

Appendix A21. Table showing Yap monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.7±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.0±0.6 1.5±0.5 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.7 1.3±0.8 1.3±0.7 1.6±0.7 2.2±0.8 2.6±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.7±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.0±0.6 1.5±0.5 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.8 1.2±0.6 1.2±0.6 1.5±0.7 2.0±0.7 2.5±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 2.7±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.0±0.5 1.5±0.5 1.3±0.7 1.3±0.7 1.3±0.8 1.2±0.7 1.4±0.6 1.9±0.7 2.5±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.6±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.0±0.5 1.5±0.5 1.3±0.6 1.3±0.7 1.3±0.8 1.2±0.7 1.4±0.6 2.0±0.7 2.4±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.9±0.5 1.5±0.5 1.3±0.5 1.3±0.7 1.3±0.8 1.2±0.7 1.3±0.5 1.8±0.7 2.3±0.7

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.5±0.5 4.7±0.7 4.3±0.7 3.4±0.4 2.9±0.6 2.9±0.7 3.5±0.7 3.8±1.0 3.5±0.8 3.6±0.8 4.4±0.9 4.5±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 4.4±0.5 4.4±0.6 4.2±0.6 3.4±0.6 2.7±0.4 2.8±0.9 3.7±0.8 3.2±0.9 3.2±0.8 3.6±0.8 3.9±0.7 4.6±0.9

RCP8.5 - mid 4.5±0.5 4.4±0.4 4.2±0.7 3.4±0.6 2.8±0.6 3.3±1.1 3.4±0.7 3.7±0.9 3.4±0.9 3.1±0.7 3.7±0.6 4.5±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 4.5±0.6 4.3±0.5 4.1±0.6 3.3±0.5 2.7±0.6 2.8±0.7 3.4±0.8 3.7±0.9 3.5±0.9 3.4±0.8 3.7±0.6 4.3±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 4.4±0.7 4.3±0.5 3.7±0.3 3.1±0.5 2.7±0.5 2.7±0.8 3.3±0.9 3.8±0.9 3.3±0.9 2.9±0.6 3.9±0.9 4.3±0.8

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±1

RCP4.5 - mid 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±1

RCP8.5 - mid 9±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±1 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - end 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 11±1 10±1

RCP4.5 - mid 10±0.8 10±0.7 10±1 10±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 8±1 9±2 10±2 10±1 10±1

RCP8.5 - mid 10±0.9 10±0.9 10±0.9 10±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±1 10±1 10±0.8 10±1 9±0.9 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - end 10±1 10±0.7 9±0.9 9±0.9 9±0.8 8±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±1 10±1

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 59±17 59±16 63±15 68±15 72±21 77±34 85±52 98±61 67±58 48±42 56±29 61±19

RCP4.5 - mid 59±17 60±16 64±14 68±11 71±16 81±30 97±52 95±62 79±58 48±48 54±29 59±23

RCP8.5 - mid 60±17 61±15 65±14 68±13 73±14 81±34 92±52 113±64 78±65 47±44 54±27 60±22

RCP4.5 - end 60±19 59±15 63±13 68±14 72±16 80±30 90±56 108±62 83±68 46±46 54±28 60±18

RCP8.5 - end 59±18 60±16 64±13 69±11 73±14 81±34 93±49 111±60 87±65 53±43 58±26 61±18

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 56±20 51±22 52±22 64±22 72±54 207±121 237±51 229±47 244±57 287±106 50±80 65±35

RCP4.5 - mid 62±16 60±15 58±28 67±12 70±37 140±80 224±42 234±49 231±66 245±88 52±76 63±45

RCP8.5 - mid 59±16 57±16 61±23 69±34 74±35 205±77 232±46 225±29 231±40 299±88 55±69 67±27

RCP4.5 - end 62±25 53±16 62±14 67±35 78±46 142±83 232±45 229±40 239±41 267±87 47±68 57±30

RCP8.5 - end 60±25 57±18 61±18 67±16 77±26 136±81 217±42 224±40 227±47 273±104 73±76 67±38
248

Appendix A22. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Yap location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 6.22 7.05 8.44 5.85 6.80 8.74 5.98 6.84 8.46 5.88 6.69 8.12 6.11 7.05 8.71

5-year 6.64 7.98 10.53 6.15 7.70 11.47 6.29 7.65 10.59 6.20 7.44 9.93 6.39 7.73 10.37

10-year 6.92 8.71 12.45 6.35 8.43 14.23 6.49 8.28 12.57 6.39 7.99 11.52 6.54 8.17 11.67

20-year 7.17 9.47 14.74 6.52 9.21 17.79 6.65 8.91 14.93 6.55 8.54 13.33 6.65 8.56 13.00

50-year 7.47 10.51 18.45 6.71 10.31 24.10 6.84 9.75 18.76 6.73 9.24 16.10 6.76 9.00 14.80

100-year 7.66 11.33 21.87 6.84 11.21 30.48 6.96 10.40 22.32 6.84 9.76 18.54 6.82 9.28 16.20
249

Appendix A23. Table showing Majuro monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.1±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.6±0.4 1.5±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.6±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.6±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.2±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.6±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.3 1.5±0.4 2.0±0.6 2.5±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.6 1.8±0.5 1.6±0.5 1.6±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.5±0.4 2.0±0.7 2.5±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 2.5±0.5 2.5±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.2±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.5±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.5±0.5 1.9±0.6 2.4±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.4±0.5 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.6±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.3 1.4±0.4 1.8±0.6 2.3±0.6

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.1±0.5 4.0±0.3 3.9±0.4 3.5±0.4 2.8±0.3 2.7±0.3 2.6±0.4 2.4±0.5 2.4±0.5 3.1±0.5 3.8±0.4 4.4±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 4±0.3 3.9±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.5±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.7±0.3 2.6±0.3 2.6±0.5 2.2±0.4 2.7±0.4 3.5±0.5 4.0±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 4.1±0.5 4.3±0.4 3.9±0.3 3.6±0.5 2.9±0.3 2.7±0.3 2.7±0.5 2.5±0.4 2.4±0.7 2.7±0.4 3.8±0.6 4.0±0.4

RCP4.5 - end 3.8±0.3 4.0±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.4±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.4 2.7±0.5 2.5±0.5 2.4±0.5 2.8±0.5 3.5±0.7 4.2±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 3.6±0.2 3.8±0.4 3.7±0.2 3.3±0.3 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.3 2.7±0.5 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.5 2.7±0.5 3.3±0.4 3.7±0.3

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 10±2 9.9±2 9.4±1 8.9±1 8.8±1 8.8±1 9±1 9.1±1 9.6±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±0.9 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 11±1 11±2 11±1 10±1 9±0.8 9±0.8 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 11±0.9 10±0.9 9±0.8 9±0.8 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 10±1

RCP8.5 - mid 11±1 11±1 10±0.9 10±0.9 9±0.8 9±0.7 9±0.9 9±1 9±2 11±2 10±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±1 11±1 11±1 10±0.8 9±0.6 9±0.9 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2 11±1

RCP8.5 - end 11±2 11±1 10±0.8 10±0.9 9±0.7 9±0.8 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±1

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 52±15 53±16 57±15 62±14 71±15 82±20 90±23 99±30 93±36 65±32 52±21 51±16

RCP4.5 - mid 52±15 54±15 57±13 63±12 72±14 82±18 90±21 102±26 100±27 72±33 53±20 53±16

RCP8.5 - mid 53±15 54±15 57±14 63±14 72±14 82±17 91±23 104±31 101±34 71±32 51±22 52±16

RCP4.5 - end 51±17 51±17 57±13 62±12 71±13 81±15 91±23 102±33 102±33 70±37 51±24 53±17

RCP8.5 - end 52±16 54±16 58±13 64±11 73±12 83±16 90±24 103±26 103±30 76±31 57±20 54±16

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 58±10 58±12 58±16 61±22 70±27 77±33 87±52 117±73 70±90 55±62 58±28 56±16

RCP4.5 - mid 56±14 58±13 59±10 62±8 68±10 76±37 87±38 128±67 107±66 55±76 52±31 57±11

RCP8.5 - mid 59±10 58±10 60±8 66±35 70±22 77±30 99±53 128±72 184±100 40±69 49±49 56±11

RCP4.5 - end 58±12 58±9 60±10 64±9 68±11 78±28 101±50 139±86 177±88 24±103 52±45 58±19

RCP8.5 - end 56±14 57±11 63±7 66±15 69±7 77±28 86±58 122±66 115±88 53±71 55±34 58±10
250

Appendix A24. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Majuro location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 5.06 5.56 6.38 4.71 5.14 5.89 4.94 5.41 6.23 4.91 5.54 6.68 4.48 4.96 5.88

5-year 5.39 6.25 7.85 4.92 5.62 6.99 5.16 5.92 7.39 5.13 6.11 8.13 4.68 5.49 7.33

10-year 5.63 6.84 9.31 5.06 6.00 8.03 5.31 6.31 8.45 5.27 6.53 9.40 4.81 5.94 8.83

20-year 5.87 7.51 11.16 5.18 6.40 9.27 5.44 6.72 9.70 5.39 6.94 10.87 4.94 6.44 10.82

50-year 6.17 8.50 14.41 5.34 6.95 11.31 5.59 7.27 11.69 5.52 7.48 13.15 5.10 7.19 14.44

100-year 6.40 9.36 17.64 5.44 7.39 13.22 5.69 7.70 13.52 5.59 7.88 15.17 5.20 7.83 18.20
251

Appendix A25. Table showing Enewetak monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.9±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.6 1.9±0.6 1.7±0.6 1.6±0.6 1.5±0.7 1.5±0.7 1.9±0.8 2.5±0.8 2.9±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.8±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.6 1.9±0.5 1.7±0.6 1.6±0.7 1.5±0.7 1.4±0.6 1.8±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.8±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 2.8±0.6 2.8±0.7 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.6 1.9±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.6±0.6 1.5±0.8 1.4±0.6 1.7±0.6 2.4±0.8 2.8±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.8±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.4±0.6 1.9±0.5 1.8±0.6 1.6±0.7 1.6±0.8 1.4±0.7 1.7±0.7 2.4±0.8 2.8±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.3±0.5 1.9±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.7±0.7 1.5±0.8 1.4±0.6 1.6±0.6 2.2±0.8 2.6±0.6

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.4±0.5 4.3±0.3 4.3±0.5 4.0±0.8 3.2±0.5 3.0±0.5 3.2±0.7 3.5±0.9 3.6±0.9 4.0±0.7 4.5±0.6 4.7±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 4.2±0.3 4.2±0.5 4.1±0.5 3.9±0.5 3.1±0.3 3.0±0.6 3.4±0.8 3.6±0.9 3.5±0.9 3.8±0.9 4.3±0.6 4.4±0.5

RCP8.5 - mid 4.2±0.4 4.4±0.3 4.1±0.4 4.1±1.0 3.2±0.6 3.0±0.4 3.3±0.7 3.7±1.3 3.4±0.7 3.6±0.6 4.5±0.7 4.4±0.5

RCP4.5 - end 4.1±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.2±0.3 3.8±0.4 3.0±0.2 3.1±0.7 3.5±0.9 4.0±1.0 3.8±1.0 3.7±0.7 4.3±0.7 4.3±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 4.0±0.3 4.0±0.3 3.9±0.4 3.4±0.2 3.0±0.4 3.0±0.7 3.5±1.0 4.1±1.4 3.5±1.0 3.5±0.8 4.3±0.8 4.1±0.4

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 10±2 9.9±2 9.3±1 8.6±1 8.5±1 8.6±1 8.7±1 8.8±1 9.5±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 10±2 10±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 11±2 11±2 11±1 10±1 9±0.9 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±1 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±1 9±0.9 9±1 10±1 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±1 11±1

RCP8.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 11±1 11±1 9±0.7 9±0.9 9±1 10±2 10±1 10±2 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 11±2 11±1 10±0.9 9±0.9 9±1 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±2 11±1 11±2

RCP8.5 - end 11±2 11±2 10±1 10±0.8 9±0.8 9±1 10±1 10±2 10±2 10±1 11±1 11±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 51±21 48±23 56±19 64±13 71±14 77±23 81±37 85±56 64±55 54±35 56±21 54±19

RCP4.5 - mid 50±22 50±22 56±18 65±12 70±11 77±18 84±38 88±52 74±57 53±38 56±20 56±19

RCP8.5 - mid 50±22 51±22 56±19 64±15 70±12 77±19 83±38 89±60 66±67 52±39 56±19 55±19

RCP4.5 - end 48±22 47±23 57±17 64±15 70±12 77±17 81±37 88±57 70±62 50±45 54±22 56±18

RCP8.5 - end 48±24 49±24 57±19 65±11 72±11 79±18 81±37 95±51 75±59 52±39 56±17 55±17

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 55±18 50±25 56±21 59±15 77±27 89±55 101±85 234±65 247±88 68±62 63±28 59±14

RCP4.5 - mid 50±22 53±21 56±17 67±23 70±15 80±38 168±94 215±72 224±76 124±113 62±26 60±21

RCP8.5 - mid 53±23 57±18 59±14 60±22 71±20 80±38 130±96 229±64 242±66 66±86 63±28 61±17

RCP4.5 - end 53±22 48±26 61±13 67±24 69±14 89±45 199±105 231±51 232±61 59±112 62±34 62±16

RCP8.5 - end 45±28 53±20 62±19 65±8 74±22 85±40 162±99 222±57 228±61 72±76 67±25 59±12
252

Appendix A26. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Enewetak

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values 

are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 6.10 6.78 7.88 5.95 6.88 8.58 5.75 6.69 8.67 6.06 6.91 8.36 5.80 7.03 9.60

5-year 6.47 7.54 9.47 6.25 7.64 10.50 6.12 7.83 12.12 6.42 7.73 10.22 6.21 8.29 13.46

10-year 6.71 8.12 10.85 6.42 8.16 12.11 6.40 8.87 16.08 6.65 8.33 11.81 6.49 9.35 17.54

20-year 6.92 8.69 12.41 6.56 8.66 13.88 6.67 10.11 21.78 6.84 8.91 13.59 6.74 10.52 22.98

50-year 7.16 9.45 14.78 6.70 9.26 16.48 7.02 12.12 33.33 7.05 9.66 16.25 7.04 12.25 33.08

100-year 7.32 10.02 16.84 6.78 9.68 18.67 7.28 13.97 46.61 7.18 10.21 18.54 7.24 13.71 43.73
253

Appendix A27. Table showing Bikini monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 3.0±0.7 2.9±0.7 2.8±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.0±0.6 1.8±0.6 1.6±0.6 1.5±0.6 1.5±0.6 2.0±0.8 2.7±0.8 3.0±0.8

RCP4.5 - mid 3.0±0.7 2.8±0.6 2.8±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.8±0.6 1.7±0.6 1.5±0.6 1.4±0.6 1.8±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.9±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 2.9±0.6 2.9±0.7 2.7±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.0±0.6 1.8±0.6 1.7±0.6 1.5±0.7 1.4±0.6 1.8±0.6 2.6±0.8 2.9±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.9±0.6 2.8±0.6 2.8±0.7 2.5±0.6 2.1±0.5 1.9±0.6 1.7±0.6 1.6±0.7 1.4±0.6 1.8±0.7 2.5±0.8 2.9±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.8±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.0±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.7±0.6 1.5±0.7 1.4±0.6 1.7±0.6 2.3±0.8 2.8±0.7

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.6±0.5 4.5±0.4 4.4±0.6 4.2±0.7 3.3±0.4 3.0±0.3 3.1±0.6 3.2±0.8 3.3±0.7 4.1±0.7 4.7±0.6 4.9±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 4.4±0.4 4.4±0.5 4.3±0.5 4.1±0.4 3.2±0.3 3.1±0.5 3.2±0.6 3.4±0.9 3.1±0.7 3.8±0.6 4.5±0.5 4.6±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 4.5±0.4 4.6±0.4 4.3±0.4 4.2±1.0 3.3±0.7 3.1±0.4 3.2±0.6 3.5±1.1 3.2±0.6 3.6±0.5 4.8±0.9 4.6±0.5

RCP4.5 - end 4.4±0.4 4.5±0.4 4.5±0.4 3.9±0.3 3.2±0.2 3.1±0.6 3.3±0.7 3.7±1.0 3.4±0.9 3.7±0.6 4.4±0.7 4.5±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 4.2±0.3 4.2±0.3 4.0±0.3 3.6±0.2 3.1±0.2 3.1±0.6 3.3±0.7 3.7±1.2 3.1±1.0 3.4±0.7 4.4±0.6 4.3±0.4

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 11±2 11±2 10±2 9±1 9±0.9 9±0.9 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 8±0.9 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 8±0.8 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 11±2 10±2 9.4±1 8.6±1 8.4±0.8 8.5±1 8.6±1 8.8±1 9.5±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 8±0.9 8±0.9 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 11±2 11±2 11±1 10±0.9 10±0.8 9±0.8 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±1 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 11±1 10±0.9 9±0.7 9±0.8 9±1 10±2 10±2 11±1 11±1 11±1

RCP8.5 - mid 12±2 11±1 11±1 11±1 9±0.7 9±0.6 9±0.9 10±2 10±2 11±2 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 11±2 11±1 10±0.8 9±0.8 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±1 11±2

RCP8.5 - end 11±2 11±2 11±1 10±0.8 9±0.7 9±0.8 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±1 11±1 11±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 50±22 48±24 56±20 64±13 70±12 74±18 74±30 75±47 57±49 53±30 56±19 54±19

RCP4.5 - mid 49±22 50±23 56±19 65±11 69±10 75±15 77±31 78±45 64±46 52±32 55±19 55±19

RCP8.5 - mid 49±23 51±23 56±20 65±15 70±11 75±14 78±31 76±52 57±57 51±33 55±17 54±20

RCP4.5 - end 48±24 47±24 57±18 64±14 69±10 75±13 76±31 77±50 61±52 48±40 54±20 55±18

RCP8.5 - end 47±24 49±24 57±19 65±12 71±11 77±14 76±30 82±42 64±49 51±34 55±16 55±18

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 56±18 53±25 57±17 63±23 74±19 76±29 80±56 220±104 282±118 67±44 64±21 59±14

RCP4.5 - mid 50±23 55±21 58±16 67±11 70±13 78±32 98±70 162±99 202±124 68±83 57±24 60±19

RCP8.5 - mid 55±23 59±18 60±12 64±25 71±18 77±23 89±52 208±98 252±95 58±65 63±20 60±13

RCP4.5 - end 54±24 51±26 62±13 67±12 69±11 81±32 98±83 232±68 223±93 45±80 62±23 62±15

RCP8.5 - end 47±24 56±17 62±18 65±8 72±15 81±28 91±78 211±81 233±96 66±53 62±19 59±13
254

Appendix A28. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Bikini location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 6.10 6.73 7.74 5.51 6.21 7.66 5.77 6.66 8.54 5.80 6.54 7.93 5.61 6.52 8.39

5-year 6.46 7.47 9.28 5.72 6.84 9.61 6.15 7.83 12.11 6.06 7.22 9.71 5.98 7.62 11.64

10-year 6.70 8.04 10.64 5.85 7.34 11.56 6.45 8.96 16.42 6.22 7.74 11.33 6.26 8.63 15.32

20-year 6.92 8.63 12.22 5.96 7.86 14.03 6.75 10.36 22.91 6.36 8.26 13.24 6.53 9.82 20.55

50-year 7.17 9.42 14.69 6.08 8.58 18.34 7.17 12.74 36.78 6.52 8.93 16.28 6.88 11.73 31.00

100-year 7.34 10.03 16.89 6.16 9.16 22.63 7.48 15.05 53.56 6.61 9.45 19.05 7.14 13.47 42.84
255

Appendix A29. Table showing Molokai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 3.2±0.9 3.1±0.9 2.7±0.8 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.5±0.7 2.9±0.8 3.1±0.8

RCP4.5 - mid 3.2±0.9 3.1±0.9 2.8±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.5 2.4±0.7 2.9±0.8 3.1±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 3.2±0.9 3.1±0.9 2.8±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.4±0.7 2.9±0.8 3.1±0.8

RCP4.5 - end 3.1±0.8 3.1±0.9 2.8±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.6 2.0±0.5 2.4±0.7 2.8±0.8 3.1±0.8

RCP8.5 - end 3.0±0.9 3.0±0.8 2.7±0.7 2.3±0.6 1.9±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.9±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.9±0.5 2.3±0.7 2.7±0.7 3.0±0.9

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 5.5±0.6 5.4±0.6 4.6±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.2±0.3 3.1±0.4 3.2±0.4 3.3±0.4 3.5±0.4 4.3±0.5 4.8±0.5 5.0±0.5

RCP4.5 - mid 5.5±0.7 5.3±0.5 4.6±0.5 4.0±0.4 3.3±0.5 2.9±0.3 3.1±0.5 3.2±0.4 3.2±0.4 4.3±0.6 4.8±0.4 5.3±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 5.3±0.6 5.3±0.6 4.6±0.5 3.8±0.4 3.0±0.2 2.9±0.3 3.1±0.5 3.3±0.5 3.3±0.5 4.4±0.6 4.7±0.4 5.1±0.4

RCP4.5 - end 5.2±0.5 5.5±0.6 4.5±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.1±0.3 2.9±0.4 3.3±0.9 3.7±0.8 3.4±0.6 4.1±0.7 4.6±0.4 5.1±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 5.2±0.4 5.1±0.7 4.5±0.4 3.6±0.3 3.0±0.3 2.7±0.2 3.2±0.7 3.4±0.7 3.2±0.6 4.0±0.6 4.6±0.5 5.2±0.6

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 13±2 12±2 11±2 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 12±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 13±2 13±2 12±2 11±3 10±3 10±3 9±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 12±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - mid 13±2 12±2 12±2 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 12±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 13±2 13±2 12±2 11±3 11±3 10±3 9.7±3 9.7±3 10±3 11±3 12±3 12±2

RCP8.5 - end 13±2 13±2 12±2 11±3 11±3 11±4 10±3 10±4 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 15±2 15±2 13±3 11±2 10±3 9±2 9±1 9±1 10±2 11±2 13±3 14±3

RCP4.5 - mid 15±2 14±2 13±3 11±2 10±3 9±2 9±1 10±2 9±2 11±2 13±3 15±3

RCP8.5 - mid 15±2 14±2 13±3 11±3 10±3 9±2 9±2 9±1 10±2 11±2 13±3 14±3

RCP4.5 - end 15±2 15±2 13±3 12±3 10±3 9±3 10±2 10±2 9±1 11±2 12±3 14±3

RCP8.5 - end 15±2 15±2 13±3 12±3 10±3 10±3 9±2 10±3 10±2 11±2 12±3 14±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 345±49 343±49 18±54 53±46 78±39 90±21 91±18 89±25 77±37 55±39 31±45 9±51

RCP4.5 - mid 343±47 349±50 17±54 53±44 77±41 91±24 90±17 90±25 81±35 55±43 30±44 5±48

RCP8.5 - mid 348±47 348±48 12±53 49±46 78±39 92±25 92±21 92±25 81±38 51±44 27±43 10±50

RCP4.5 - end 342±47 343±49 15±51 44±48 75±41 93±24 93±21 93±26 82±38 56±41 31±42 7±50

RCP8.5 - end 344±46 341±45 10±52 52±44 77±43 95±23 94±19 95±27 84±38 57±40 37±41 6±49

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 323±35 324±39 21±55 48±43 70±31 85±11 85±15 83±26 70±37 57±42 30±52 352±49

RCP4.5 - mid 321±30 332±46 359±56 58±33 71±30 85±13 88±19 83±26 81±34 62±41 28±51 343±45

RCP8.5 - mid 331±45 331±44 2±55 46±41 72±26 84±13 87±20 90±37 77±37 58±40 19±44 4±57

RCP4.5 - end 319±28 326±43 359±52 29±47 74±23 93±20 89±22 101±52 86±48 56±49 40±44 349±54

RCP8.5 - end 327±39 321±32 353±50 42±41 65±37 88±19 92±24 86±34 84±57 61±51 36±46 7±57
256

Appendix A30. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Molokai 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 6.65 7.11 7.83 6.59 7.26 8.46 6.45 7.01 7.97 6.47 7.06 8.16 6.36 6.83 7.62

5-year 6.95 7.69 8.93 6.86 7.91 10.08 6.65 7.47 9.01 6.65 7.55 9.43 6.51 7.17 8.41

10-year 7.15 8.13 9.89 7.03 8.41 11.56 6.77 7.78 9.84 6.76 7.89 10.52 6.60 7.40 9.00

20-year 7.33 8.57 10.96 7.18 8.92 13.31 6.86 8.06 10.70 6.85 8.22 11.73 6.66 7.59 9.59

50-year 7.54 9.16 12.58 7.34 9.60 16.10 6.95 8.39 11.88 6.94 8.62 13.53 6.72 7.81 10.37

100-year 7.69 9.61 13.98 7.45 10.12 18.66 7.00 8.61 12.82 6.99 8.90 15.08 6.75 7.94 10.95
257

Appendix A31. Table showing Northwest Hawaiian Islands monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent 

for significant wave height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 3.9±1.3 3.7±1.3 3.1±1.0 2.5±0.8 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.2±0.7 2.7±0.9 3.2±1.0 3.6±1.1

RCP4.5 - mid 3.9±1.3 3.7±1.2 3.2±1.0 2.6±0.7 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.7 2.1±0.7 2.6±0.9 3.1±1.0 3.6±1.2

RCP8.5 - mid 3.8±1.2 3.6±1.2 3.1±1.0 2.4±0.7 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.5 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.7 2.1±0.7 2.7±0.9 3.1±1.0 3.5±1.2

RCP4.5 - end 3.8±1.2 3.7±1.3 3.1±1.0 2.5±0.8 2.0±0.5 1.9±0.4 2.0±0.5 2.0±0.7 2.1±0.6 2.6±0.9 3.0±0.9 3.5±1.2

RCP8.5 - end 3.7±1.3 3.5±1.2 3.0±1.0 2.4±0.7 1.9±0.5 1.8±0.4 1.9±0.5 1.9±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.5±0.8 2.9±0.9 3.4±1.1

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 7.4±1.0 7.1±0.8 5.6±0.6 4.5±0.6 3.4±0.4 3.2±0.5 3.7±0.7 3.9±0.8 4.2±0.6 5.1±0.6 5.7±0.7 6.7±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 7.3±0.9 6.9±0.8 5.8±0.7 4.4±0.6 3.4±0.4 3.1±0.4 3.5±0.7 4.0±0.9 4.2±1.0 5.3±1.1 5.7±0.8 6.8±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 6.9±0.8 6.7±0.7 5.6±0.7 4.2±0.4 3.4±0.6 2.9±0.2 3.4±0.7 3.9±0.9 4.4±1.1 5.1±0.7 5.6±0.7 6.7±0.8

RCP4.5 - end 7.1±0.8 7.2±1.0 5.8±0.8 4.5±0.5 3.4±0.5 2.9±0.3 3.3±0.6 4.3±1.2 4.0±0.7 5.0±0.9 5.3±0.6 6.6±0.8

RCP8.5 - end 7.1±0.9 6.8±1.1 5.6±0.7 4.2±0.5 3.2±0.3 2.8±0.4 3.2±0.6 3.7±1.2 3.9±0.8 4.7±0.7 5.2±0.6 6.4±0.7

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±3 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 9±3 10±3 10±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 9.7±3 9.5±3 9.5±2 9.5±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±2 11±2 12±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 14±2 15±1 14±2 12±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±1 11±2 13±2 14±2

RCP4.5 - mid 15±2 15±2 14±2 11±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 11±2 13±2 15±2

RCP8.5 - mid 15±2 15±2 14±2 12±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 10±2 10±1 11±2 13±2 15±2

RCP4.5 - end 15±2 15±2 13±2 12±2 11±2 9±2 9±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 13±2 14±2

RCP8.5 - end 15±2 14±2 14±2 12±2 10±2 9±3 10±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 12±2 15±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 324±45 322±49 351±63 47±58 80±50 102±29 103±20 102±30 83±42 53±46 13±54 341±53

RCP4.5 - mid 322±40 325±50 351±60 51±56 77±54 103±35 104±21 107±26 89±41 56±44 20±54 339±50

RCP8.5 - mid 326±46 327±49 347±58 41±61 76±53 102±36 105±25 108±33 87±46 57±43 20±49 340±50

RCP4.5 - end 320±40 325±48 352±59 35±60 74±55 103±34 106±23 108±28 87±41 62±43 23±52 343±52

RCP8.5 - end 323±43 323±44 349±59 49±57 77±52 105±31 106±21 110±29 93±42 63±42 29±48 344±50

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 307±20 306±18 329±46 24±58 63±44 94±21 102±29 104±54 82±46 43±50 347±48 314±26

RCP4.5 - mid 309±20 309±24 326±45 46±59 54±46 93±24 108±44 122±48 90±57 53±54 352±54 316±28

RCP8.5 - mid 312±31 311±25 318±42 13±61 61±42 93±20 101±34 124±63 79±54 51±41 0±49 313±25

RCP4.5 - end 307±17 310±30 330±48 10±58 66±50 97±21 104±41 133±62 93±66 62±47 352±56 325±37

RCP8.5 - end 308±17 310±23 319±35 23±58 51±48 96±23 98±26 132±66 97±67 62±52 16±47 328±41
258

Appendix A32. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Northwest 

Hawaiian Islands location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 9.18 9.95 11.16 8.89 9.79 11.46 8.61 9.47 11.04 9.10 10.11 11.86 8.68 9.59 11.12

5-year 9.65 10.88 13.01 9.20 10.61 13.63 8.85 10.10 12.67 9.51 11.07 14.09 8.98 10.27 12.67

10-year 9.96 11.60 14.63 9.40 11.23 15.62 8.99 10.52 13.98 9.77 11.77 16.02 9.15 10.71 13.83

20-year 10.25 12.32 16.47 9.57 11.85 17.98 9.09 10.90 15.37 9.99 12.46 18.18 9.27 11.08 14.99

50-year 10.58 13.29 19.29 9.75 12.68 21.78 9.19 11.34 17.32 10.23 13.34 21.45 9.39 11.51 16.51

100-year 10.81 14.03 21.76 9.86 13.31 25.27 9.25 11.63 18.89 10.38 13.99 24.29 9.45 11.78 17.65
259

Appendix A33. Table showing Guam monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.8±0.6 1.6±0.6 1.6±0.9 1.6±1.0 1.5±0.8 1.9±0.8 2.5±0.9 2.7±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 2.7±0.6 2.5±0.6 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.6 1.7±0.6 1.6±0.6 1.6±0.8 1.5±0.8 1.5±0.8 1.7±0.7 2.3±0.7 2.6±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.1±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.6±0.8 1.6±0.9 1.6±1.0 1.5±0.8 1.7±0.7 2.3±0.8 2.7±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.6±0.6 2.6±0.7 2.5±0.6 2.1±0.6 1.7±0.5 1.6±0.6 1.6±0.9 1.6±0.9 1.5±0.7 1.7±0.7 2.3±0.8 2.6±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.5±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.0±0.5 1.7±0.5 1.6±0.7 1.6±0.8 1.6±1.0 1.5±0.8 1.6±0.6 2.1±0.8 2.5±0.7

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.3±0.5 4.2±0.5 4.3±0.9 3.7±0.7 3.4±0.9 3.4±0.9 4.4±1.0 4.8±1.3 4.2±1.1 4.2±0.8 4.9±0.9 4.6±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 4.2±0.3 4.1±0.5 4.1±0.8 3.6±0.9 3.2±0.7 3.3±1.0 4.2±0.9 4.2±0.9 4.2±1.3 3.7±0.6 4.3±1.0 4.7±0.9

RCP8.5 - mid 4.2±0.5 4.2±0.4 4.1±0.6 3.6±0.5 3.0±0.5 4.0±1.4 4.3±0.9 4.7±1.1 4.2±1.3 3.7±0.8 4.3±0.8 4.8±0.8

RCP4.5 - end 4.2±0.4 4.3±0.4 4.1±0.4 3.6±0.5 2.9±0.5 3.2±0.9 4.5±1.4 4.6±1.1 3.9±0.8 3.7±0.8 4.3±0.8 4.3±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 4.2±0.5 4.1±0.5 3.8±0.5 3.2±0.4 3.0±0.6 3.3±1.3 4.0±0.8 4.8±1.3 4.1±0.9 3.4±0.7 4.4±0.9 4.5±1.0

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±2

RCP4.5 - mid 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 10±1 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 9±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 9±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 10±1 10±2 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - mid 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±0.9 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±2 11±2 11±1 11±1

RCP8.5 - mid 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 9±0.9 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±2 11±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - end 10±1 10±2 10±1 10±0.9 9±0.9 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±2 11±1 10±1

RCP8.5 - end 10±1 9±0.9 10±1 10±0.9 9±0.8 9±1 10±1 10±1 10±1 10±2 11±1 10±0.9

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 65±20 63±20 69±18 74±13 79±17 84±28 92±55 111±76 74±67 62±39 70±25 69±19

RCP4.5 - mid 65±21 64±19 69±16 74±10 78±14 85±27 96±49 107±82 78±72 59±48 67±25 68±21

RCP8.5 - mid 65±20 65±19 69±16 74±13 79±11 88±29 93±52 126±78 77±81 59±42 68±23 69±20

RCP4.5 - end 65±21 63±20 69±15 73±12 80±13 85±23 95±54 118±76 77±81 58±45 68±21 69±18

RCP8.5 - end 64±21 64±20 68±15 75±11 80±10 88±28 93±48 116±68 87±81 60±46 69±21 70±17

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 64±15 57±23 68±28 71±24 86±40 134±94 217±57 214±50 208±79 83±79 81±52 76±23

RCP4.5 - mid 65±20 63±12 69±19 70±14 81±29 116±64 218±59 224±48 232±69 88±122 78±47 72±28

RCP8.5 - mid 63±15 64±14 65±16 74±17 82±17 154±77 223±50 223±34 233±37 89±83 78±44 78±25

RCP4.5 - end 67±14 54±24 66±13 70±14 85±27 116±68 218±60 229±37 239±49 88±113 76±41 68±27

RCP8.5 - end 66±18 65±16 65±13 73±12 82±15 128±68 221±60 220±41 220±55 84±96 84±39 79±29
260

Appendix A34. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Guam location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 7.34 8.32 9.84 6.83 8.05 10.19 6.73 7.88 10.04 6.58 7.80 10.09 6.67 8.09 11.01

5-year 7.89 9.38 11.88 7.31 9.20 12.90 7.19 9.07 13.11 6.97 8.82 12.78 7.09 9.35 14.83

10-year 8.22 10.13 13.54 7.62 10.04 15.26 7.49 10.01 16.07 7.20 9.56 15.12 7.35 10.34 18.54

20-year 8.51 10.84 15.30 7.87 10.87 17.91 7.76 11.01 19.73 7.38 10.26 17.77 7.57 11.34 23.14

50-year 8.83 11.72 17.78 8.15 11.92 21.95 8.08 12.40 25.91 7.58 11.14 21.80 7.81 12.71 30.98

100-year 9.03 12.35 19.79 8.32 12.70 25.45 8.28 13.52 31.86 7.69 11.77 25.30 7.96 13.78 38.60
261

Appendix A35. Table showing Kwajalein monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.4±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.2±0.5 1.9±0.5 1.5±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.2±0.4 1.1±0.4 1.1±0.4 1.4±0.5 1.9±0.6 2.3±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 2.3±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.2±0.5 1.9±0.5 1.5±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.1±0.5 1.1±0.4 1.3±0.5 1.7±0.5 2.2±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 2.3±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.5 1.9±0.5 1.5±0.5 1.3±0.4 1.3±0.5 1.2±0.5 1.1±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.8±0.6 2.2±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 2.3±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.5 1.8±0.5 1.5±0.4 1.4±0.5 1.2±0.4 1.2±0.5 1.1±0.4 1.3±0.5 1.7±0.6 2.2±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.0±0.5 1.8±0.4 1.5±0.4 1.4±0.4 1.3±0.4 1.2±0.5 1.1±0.4 1.2±0.4 1.6±0.5 2.1±0.5

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 3.6±0.4 3.5±0.3 3.4±0.5 3.1±0.4 2.5±0.3 2.3±0.3 2.4±0.4 2.3±0.7 2.3±0.6 2.9±0.7 3.5±0.5 3.8±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 3.5±0.3 3.5±0.4 3.3±0.3 3.0±0.2 2.5±0.3 2.4±0.3 2.4±0.4 2.5±0.7 2.2±0.5 2.6±0.6 3.2±0.4 3.6±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 3.5±0.3 3.7±0.4 3.3±0.3 3.2±0.7 2.6±0.5 2.4±0.3 2.5±0.5 2.5±0.7 2.3±0.5 2.5±0.5 3.5±0.6 3.5±0.4

RCP4.5 - end 3.4±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.4±0.3 2.9±0.2 2.5±0.2 2.4±0.4 2.4±0.7 2.6±0.8 2.5±0.6 2.6±0.5 3.2±0.6 3.5±0.4

RCP8.5 - end 3.2±0.3 3.3±0.3 3.1±0.2 2.8±0.3 2.4±0.2 2.4±0.3 2.4±0.5 2.6±0.9 2.1±0.7 2.5±0.6 3.1±0.4 3.2±0.3

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - mid 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 11±2 10±2 9.5±2 8.9±1 8.7±1 8.9±1 9.1±2 9.2±2 9.8±2 10±2 11±2

RCP8.5 - end 11±2 10±2 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 8±1 9±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±1 11±1

RCP4.5 - mid 11±3 11±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 8±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±1

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 11±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 8±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 11±3 10±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 8±1 8±1 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 11±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 50±17 49±18 55±16 61±15 69±18 80±25 89±32 100±43 85±49 56±37 49±22 49±17

RCP4.5 - mid 49±17 50±18 55±15 62±14 69±15 80±21 90±33 104±39 95±41 60±39 48±22 51±18

RCP8.5 - mid 49±17 51±17 54±16 62±16 69±16 79±20 92±33 108±46 95±51 60±38 48±22 50±17

RCP4.5 - end 48±19 48±19 55±15 61±15 68±14 79±19 90±33 104±47 98±49 56±44 47±24 51±18

RCP8.5 - end 48±19 50±19 56±15 62±11 71±14 81±20 88±33 105±38 98±43 63±38 51±20 51±16

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 55±14 52±17 54±19 59±28 69±31 73±32 90±67 191±103 267±110 67±68 59±32 54±18

RCP4.5 - mid 49±18 57±17 56±12 62±18 69±18 74±40 93±56 172±89 194±127 47±105 49±28 55±17

RCP8.5 - mid 54±16 57±13 57±11 62±34 73±26 77±33 111±65 192±83 239±94 34±90 52±45 54±13

RCP4.5 - end 51±20 53±16 57±12 62±17 66±9 79±37 113±75 209±74 214±78 355±109 49±45 57±18

RCP8.5 - end 49±17 55±12 60±15 62±12 70±15 80±44 86±75 194±78 170±133 67±75 55±27 54±13
262

Appendix A36. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kwajalein 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 4.73 5.35 6.42 4.28 4.80 5.92 4.50 5.16 6.51 4.45 5.07 6.22 4.21 4.77 5.80

5-year 5.15 6.30 8.55 4.45 5.35 7.64 4.76 5.91 8.70 4.74 5.81 8.11 4.48 5.46 7.58

10-year 5.48 7.18 10.87 4.57 5.82 9.51 4.94 6.56 11.10 4.95 6.45 10.09 4.69 6.08 9.48

20-year 5.83 8.23 14.07 4.68 6.34 12.07 5.11 7.31 14.39 5.15 7.17 12.71 4.89 6.79 12.03

50-year 6.31 9.94 20.21 4.81 7.13 16.96 5.32 8.47 20.72 5.40 8.27 17.50 5.14 7.90 16.83

100-year 6.69 11.54 26.92 4.90 7.82 22.27 5.47 9.49 27.63 5.59 9.23 22.51 5.33 8.89 21.95
263

Appendix A37. Table showing Wake monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 3.0±0.8 2.9±0.8 2.8±0.8 2.6±0.7 2.2±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.1±0.7 2.1±0.7 2.1±0.8 2.7±0.9 2.9±0.8 3.1±0.8

RCP4.5 - mid 3.0±0.8 2.9±0.7 2.8±0.8 2.6±0.7 2.2±0.6 2.0±0.6 2.1±0.7 2.0±0.7 2.0±0.8 2.6±0.9 2.9±0.8 3.0±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 3.0±0.8 2.9±0.8 2.7±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.2±0.6 2.0±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.1±0.8 2.1±0.8 2.5±0.9 3.0±0.9 3.0±0.8

RCP4.5 - end 3.0±0.8 2.9±0.8 2.8±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.7 2.1±0.8 2.0±0.8 2.5±0.9 2.9±0.9 3.0±0.8

RCP8.5 - end 2.9±0.8 2.8±0.7 2.6±0.7 2.5±0.6 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.1±0.6 2.0±0.9 2.0±0.8 2.4±0.8 2.8±0.8 2.9±0.8

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 5.0±0.6 5.0±0.6 4.7±0.5 4.4±0.5 3.6±0.3 3.7±0.7 3.9±0.8 4.2±0.9 4.6±1.0 5.2±0.8 5.0±0.6 5.3±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 5.0±0.5 4.8±0.5 4.8±0.6 4.3±0.4 3.6±0.4 3.5±0.6 4.0±0.7 3.9±0.8 4.4±0.9 5.3±1.0 5.1±0.6 4.9±0.5

RCP8.5 - mid .05±0.5 4.9±0.5 4.6±0.5 4.5±0.9 3.6±0.5 3.3±0.4 3.8±0.9 4.6±1.3 4.6±1.2 5.0±0.9 5.3±0.6 5.0±0.5

RCP4.5 - end 4.8±0.5 4.9±0.5 4.7±0.4 4.4±0.5 3.5±0.3 3.4±0.7 4.0±1.0 4.6±0.9 4.4±1.0 4.9±0.9 5.1±0.7 4.8±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 4.8±0.5 4.6±0.3 4.2±0.4 4.0±0.4 3.3±0.3 3.3±0.8 3.8±1.0 4.9±1.4 4.4±1.2 4.6±0.9 4.9±0.9 4.8±0.4

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 11±2 11±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±1 10±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 11±2

RCP8.5 - mid 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 10±2 11±2

RCP4.5 - end 11±2 11±2 10±2 9.6±1 8.9±1 8.7±1 8.7±1 8.8±1 8.8±1 9.4±1 10±2 11±2

RCP8.5 - end 11±2 11±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±1 9±2 9±1 10±2 11±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 13±2 13±2 11±2 10±1 10±0.8 10±0.9 10±1 10±2 10±1 11±0.9 11±1 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 13±2 13±2 12±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 10±1 11±2 11±2 11±1 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - mid 13±2 12±2 11±2 11±1 9±0.7 9±0.7 10±1 11±2 10±1 11±1 11±1 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 13±2 13±2 12±2 10±1 10±1 9±1 10±1 11±1 10±1 11±1 11±1 12±2

RCP8.5 - end 13±2 12±2 11±2 10±1 9±0.8 9±1 10±2 11±2 10±1 10±1 11±1 12±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 29±43 26±46 51±39 73±21 83±15 89±15 90±25 92±36 77±36 70±24 62±28 45±38

RCP4.5 - mid 27±43 28±43 50±39 73±21 82±16 90±15 93±27 95±36 82±35 71±27 63±25 47±38

RCP8.5 - mid 29±43 33±44 49±41 73±25 83±15 90±14 93±27 97±43 83±41 70±23 66±23 47±38

RCP4.5 - end 22±44 24±44 53±38 73±25 82±16 91±12 93±25 96±37 83±36 69±26 64±26 49±37

RCP8.5 - end 26±43 28±44 50±39 73±23 84±15 92±13 94±24 99±34 86±39 71±29 66±22 49±35

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 24±52 6±52 48±41 70±17 83±19 91±25 100±52 153±78 91±63 79±35 64±27 54±37

RCP4.5 - mid 3±46 17±49 52±40 73±18 76±17 89±26 124±67 133±70 113±79 83±50 62±23 43±43

RCP8.5 - mid 29±53 40±52 56±41 70±24 79±13 90±15 117±64 180±79 118±74 74±36 70±22 45±40

RCP4.5 - end 9±49 11±54 55±41 73±25 77±18 92±17 122±59 190±75 132±77 73±41 68±28 49±40

RCP8.5 - end 3±45 23±52 52±43 71±19 76±13 90±17 112±58 194±70 152±86 79±44 69±22 47±36
264

Appendix A38. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Wake location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 7.14 7.90 9.11 6.68 7.37 8.58 6.96 7.89 9.54 6.76 7.75 9.73 6.73 8.09 11.02

5-year 7.54 8.72 10.77 6.97 8.07 10.27 7.37 8.87 11.89 7.08 8.70 12.48 7.24 9.69 16.11

10-year 7.80 9.32 12.15 7.17 8.61 11.81 7.64 9.64 14.09 7.30 9.46 15.21 7.61 11.17 22.03

20-year 8.02 9.89 13.67 7.33 9.17 13.63 7.88 10.43 16.73 7.48 10.25 18.66 7.97 12.93 30.65

50-year 8.26 10.62 15.87 7.53 9.92 16.56 8.16 11.53 21.05 7.69 11.37 24.64 8.43 15.78 48.34

100-year 8.42 11.16 17.72 7.65 10.50 19.25 8.35 12.40 25.10 7.83 12.27 30.56 8.77 18.42 68.94
265

Appendix A39. Table showing Johnston Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant 

wave height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 3.4±0.8 3.2±0.8 3.1±0.8 2.8±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.5±0.8 3.1±0.8 3.3±0.8

RCP4.5 - mid 3.3±0.8 3.3±0.8 3.1±0.7 2.9±0.7 2.4±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.4±0.7 3.0±0.8 3.3±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 3.3±0.8 3.2±0.8 3.0±0.8 2.8±0.6 2.3±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.4±0.7 3.0±0.8 3.3±0.8

RCP4.5 - end 3.3±0.7 3.2±0.8 3.1±0.7 2.8±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.2±0.6 2.0±0.5 2.4±0.8 3.0±0.8 3.3±0.8

RCP8.5 - end 3.2±0.8 3.1±0.8 2.9±0.7 2.7±0.6 2.3±0.5 2.2±0.4 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.0±0.5 2.3±0.6 2.8±0.7 3.2±0.8

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 5.4±0.5 5.2±0.5 4.9±0.4 4.4±0.4 3.7±0.4 3.6±0.5 3.6±0.5 3.4±0.7 3.5±0.5 4.7±0.7 5.2±0.5 5.3±0.5

RCP4.5 - mid 5.3±0.5 5.2±0.4 4.9±0.4 4.7±0.4 3.7±0.4 3.4±0.4 3.4±0.4 3.6±0.9 3.5±0.6 4.3±0.6 5.0±0.6 5.2±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 5.3±0.5 5.3±0.4 4.9±0.4 4.3±0.4 3.5±0.3 3.3±0.3 3.5±0.5 3.5±0.8 3.5±0.7 4.5±0.7 4.9±0.5 5.4±0.4

RCP4.5 - end 5.1±0.4 5.3±0.5 4.8±0.5 4.2±0.3 3.7±0.5 3.5±0.3 3.5±0.5 3.8±1.0 3.3±0.6 4.6±1.0 5.1±0.5 5.1±0.3

RCP8.5 - end 5.1±0.5 5.1±0.6 4.7±0.4 4.1±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.3±0.4 3.5±0.6 3.4±0.6 3.4±1.0 4.0±0.9 4.7±0.5 5.1±0.4

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 9±2 10±3 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 9±2 9±2 9±3 9±3 10±3 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 9.4±2 9.2±2 9.2±2 9.3±2 9.7±2 10±2 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 9±2 9±3 9±2 9±3 10±3 10±2 11±2 12±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 14±3 14±3 11±2 10±2 10±1 9±0.6 9±0.8 9±2 10±2 11±2 12±2 13±3

RCP4.5 - mid 15±2 14±3 12±3 10±1 10±1 9±0.6 9±1 9±2 10±2 11±2 12±2 13±3

RCP8.5 - mid 13±3 13±3 11±2 10±2 9±1 9±1 9±0.7 9±2 10±2 11±2 12±2 13±3

RCP4.5 - end 14±3 13±3 12±2 11±2 10±2 9±1 9±0.8 10±2 10±2 10±1 11±2 13±3

RCP8.5 - end 14±3 13±3 12±3 10±2 9±2 9±1 9±1 10±2 10±2 10±2 12±2 13±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 14±41 13±44 43±39 67±27 83±18 91±14 94±19 96±28 85±39 61±36 44±33 28±40

RCP4.5 - mid 9±39 18±42 40±39 68±25 84±20 93±16 94±18 98±28 92±36 61±37 47±33 28±38

RCP8.5 - mid 16±41 17±41 38±41 67±26 84±19 93±14 95±20 99±32 91±41 60±35 45±31 30±38

RCP4.5 - end 7±41 11±43 41±38 63±28 83±19 93±14 95±19 98±32 89±39 63±41 47±32 30±38

RCP8.5 - end 11±40 12±42 38±40 67±27 85±19 96±14 95±16 99±29 95±39 65±34 49±29 28±38

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 6±43 8±50 47±35 62±24 74±14 87±12 89±22 96±41 78±50 65±42 52±39 27±46

RCP4.5 - mid 352±36 10±48 46±39 71±14 77±15 88±16 88±32 106±52 102±70 65±54 48±42 19±43

RCP8.5 - mid 26±45 28±47 49±36 63±23 79±14 87±10 90±27 106±47 100±76 60±45 45±36 33±46

RCP4.5 - end 354±45 10±50 43±36 60±26 77±14 87±14 88±23 102±71 97±71 71±63 61±28 23±44

RCP8.5 - end 353±40 8±46 40±44 66±22 76±17 90±12 89±25 97±52 113±71 68±44 47±34 28±47
266

Appendix A40. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Johnston Atoll 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 6.50 7.00 7.86 6.47 6.98 7.83 6.32 6.78 7.60 6.44 7.13 8.45 6.39 6.95 7.87

5-year 6.75 7.58 9.15 6.71 7.50 9.00 6.49 7.18 8.61 6.76 7.96 10.66 6.66 7.53 9.12

10-year 6.92 8.03 10.33 6.86 7.90 10.03 6.58 7.47 9.48 6.99 8.70 13.02 6.83 7.96 10.18

20-year 7.08 8.49 11.74 6.99 8.30 11.19 6.66 7.75 10.46 7.21 9.54 16.21 6.99 8.39 11.37

50-year 7.26 9.14 14.01 7.15 8.82 12.99 6.75 8.11 11.95 7.49 10.83 22.20 7.16 8.94 13.15

100-year 7.38 9.64 16.10 7.25 9.21 14.57 6.80 8.37 13.24 7.69 11.98 28.60 7.27 9.35 14.67
267

Appendix A41. Table showing Kingman Reef monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant 

wave height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.9±0.6 2.9±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.3±0.6 2.7±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 2.9±0.6 2.9±0.6 2.8±0.6 2.5±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.4 2.3±0.5 2.7±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 2.9±0.6 2.9±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.5±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.4 2.2±0.5 2.7±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 2.8±0.6 2.9±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.4 2.2±0.6 2.7±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 2.8±0.6 2.8±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.2±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.3 1.9±0.3 1.8±0.3 1.8±0.3 2.1±0.5 2.6±0.6

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.4±0.4 4.3±0.3 4.1±0.3 3.6±0.3 3.2±0.2 3.1±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.6±0.2 3.1±0.4 4.0±0.9 4.2±0.4

RCP4.5 - mid 4.3±0.3 4.3±0.3 4.2±0.3 3.8±0.3 3.4±0.5 3.1±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.3 2.6±0.2 2.8±0.2 3.6±0.3 4.2±0.3

RCP8.5 - mid 4.4±0.4 4.3±0.3 4.2±0.4 3.6±0.3 3.3±0.3 3.0±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.7±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.9±0.3 3.5±0.4 4.2±0.3

RCP4.5 - end 4.3±0.3 4.4±0.3 4.0±0.2 3.8±0.3 3.3±0.4 3.2±0.3 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.3 2.5±0.2 2.8±0.3 3.7±0.7 4.1±0.4

RCP8.5 - end 4.1±0.3 4.2±0.4 4.0±0.3 3.6±0.2 3.2±0.2 3.1±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.4 2.5±0.3 2.7±0.3 3.3±0.3 4.2±0.4

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±3 12±3 11±2 11±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 11±2 12±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 13±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 12±2 12±3

RCP8.5 - mid 12±3 12±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±2 12±3

RCP4.5 - end 12±3 12±3 11±2 11±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±2 12±3

RCP8.5 - end 12±3 12±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 13±3 13±3 11±2 10±2 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±3 12±2 12±3 13±3

RCP4.5 - mid 14±3 13±3 11±2 11±2 11±3 10±3 11±3 12±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 14±3

RCP8.5 - mid 13±3 13±3 11±2 10±2 10±2 11±3 12±3 12±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 13±3

RCP4.5 - end 14±3 13±3 11±2 11±2 10±3 11±3 12±4 12±3 12±3 12±3 12±2 14±3

RCP8.5 - end 15±3 13±3 12±3 10±2 10±3 11±4 11±3 12±3 12±3 13±3 13±3 14±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 24±28 25±31 41±29 62±29 88±31 101±28 116±25 124±25 123±35 82±50 35±38 27±29

RCP4.5 - mid 21±28 28±27 41±27 61±26 84±30 100±27 114±23 124±23 128±26 92±51 37±40 25±29

RCP8.5 - mid 26±27 28±28 38±29 60±26 85±29 100±26 116±23 126±24 129±30 96±49 36±39 26±28

RCP4.5 - end 22±29 23±29 39±27 60±28 85±29 101±27 117±24 127±28 130±29 97±53 36±39 27±30

RCP8.5 - end 23±28 27±29 39±28 62±26 84±25 99±25 114±24 127±25 132±28 105±47 45±40 26±29

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 20±33 27±32 44±23 54±21 76±28 91±29 120±36 127±25 127±39 42±51 30±47 21±36

RCP4.5 - mid 11±35 25±32 44±23 57±16 70±33 90±25 112±30 129±30 132±35 55±67 17±39 21±32

RCP8.5 - mid 24±30 27±32 47±21 56±11 76±25 97±32 117±30 124±27 136±32 65±68 18±34 21±39

RCP4.5 - end 20±35 23±36 45±23 50±22 76±32 92±36 123±32 139±42 142±42 29±67 30±37 18±34

RCP8.5 - end 7±32 25±35 41±25 59±17 73±27 94±39 113±35 137±43 142±42 59±85 25±31 26±33
268

Appendix A42. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kingman Reef 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 5.01 5.37 5.96 5.01 5.36 5.93 4.88 5.26 5.96 4.94 5.35 6.10 4.81 5.13 5.64

5-year 5.26 5.91 7.13 5.21 5.78 6.80 5.02 5.63 6.91 5.14 5.83 7.24 4.97 5.47 6.35

10-year 5.46 6.41 8.36 5.35 6.10 7.57 5.11 5.91 7.79 5.28 6.22 8.35 5.08 5.72 6.95

20-year 5.67 6.99 9.99 5.48 6.44 8.48 5.19 6.20 8.83 5.41 6.65 9.73 5.17 5.97 7.62

50-year 5.95 7.91 13.00 5.63 6.91 9.92 5.28 6.59 10.54 5.56 7.26 12.10 5.28 6.29 8.62

100-year 6.17 8.74 16.16 5.73 7.28 11.22 5.34 6.89 12.12 5.67 7.76 14.41 5.34 6.53 9.47
269

Appendix A43. Table showing Palmyra monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.9±0.6 2.8±0.6 2.6±0.5 2.3±0.5 2.1±0.4 2±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.3±0.6 2.7±0.6

RCP4.5 - mid 2.8±0.6 2.9±0.6 2.7±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.4 2.2±0.5 2.6±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 2.8±0.6 2.8±0.6 2.6±0.6 2.4±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.4 2.2±0.5 2.6±0.6

RCP4.5 - end 2.8±0.6 2.8±0.6 2.7±0.5 2.4±0.5 2.2±0.5 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.4 2.2±0.6 2.6±0.6

RCP8.5 - end 2.7±0.5 2.7±0.6 2.6±0.5 2.4±0.5 2.2±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.3 1.9±0.3 1.8±0.3 1.8±0.3 2.1±0.4 2.6±0.6

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.3±0.4 4.2±0.3 4.0±0.3 3.5±0.3 3.1±0.2 3.0±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.6±0.2 3.0±0.4 3.9±0.9 4.1±0.4

RCP4.5 - mid 4.2±0.3 4.2±0.3 4.1±0.3 3.7±0.3 3.3±0.4 3.1±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.7±0.2 3.5±0.3 4.1±0.3

RCP8.5 - mid 4.2±0.4 4.2±0.3 4.1±0.4 3.5±0.3 3.2±0.3 2.9±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.7±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.8±0.3 3.4±0.4 4.0±0.3

RCP4.5 - end 4.2±0.3 4.3±0.3 3.9±0.2 3.7±0.3 3.2±0.3 3.1±0.3 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.3 2.5±0.3 2.8±0.4 3.6±0.7 4.0±0.4

RCP8.5 - end 4.0±0.3 4.1±0.4 3.9±0.3 3.5±0.2 3.1±0.2 3.0±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.4 2.5±0.2 2.7±0.3 3.2±0.3 4.1±0.4

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±3 12±3 11±2 11±3 11±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 13±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±2 12±3

RCP8.5 - mid 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 12±3 12±3 11±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±2 12±3

RCP8.5 - end 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±3

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 14±3 13±3 12±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±3 12±2 13±3 13±3

RCP4.5 - mid 14±3 13±3 12±3 11±2 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 13±3 13±3 14±3 14±3

RCP8.5 - mid 13±3 13±3 11±2 10±2 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 14±3

RCP4.5 - end 14±3 13±3 11±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 12±4 12±3 12±3 12±3 12±2 14±3

RCP8.5 - end 15±3 13±3 12±3 10±2 11±3 12±4 11±3 12±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 14±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 23±28 24±31 40±29 62±31 91±32 104±28 118±24 125±24 124±33 86±50 36±39 27±29

RCP4.5 - mid 20±28 26±27 39±28 61±28 87±32 103±27 116±22 125±22 130±25 96±50 38±42 24±29

RCP8.5 - mid 24±27 27±28 37±30 60±28 87±31 103±26 118±22 127±22 130±28 101±48 37±41 25±29

RCP4.5 - end 21±29 22±29 38±27 60±30 88±31 104±27 120±23 129±26 131±28 101±52 37±41 26±31

RCP8.5 - end 22±29 26±29 37±28 62±28 86±27 103±25 117±23 128±24 133±26 109±45 47±41 26±30

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 17±34 24±32 41±23 53±25 80±34 96±31 125±34 128±22 129±34 47±56 25±47 17±36

RCP4.5 - mid 7±36 22±32 41±24 57±19 75±40 95±28 118±27 130±26 135±32 72±71 15±38 17±31

RCP8.5 - mid 20±31 24±32 45±21 54±12 79±28 103±34 123±28 128±25 136±28 71±71 15±34 17±39

RCP4.5 - end 17±34 20±35 43±26 48±24 79±38 100±39 128±30 140±37 145±38 34±70 23±40 13±34

RCP8.5 - end 5±32 22±35 38±26 58±18 75±31 99±42 121±32 137±37 142±36 75±84 23±32 23±33
270

Appendix A44. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palmyra 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 4.91 5.24 5.78 4.85 5.19 5.78 4.76 5.12 5.76 4.79 5.20 5.93 4.68 4.99 5.50

5-year 5.17 5.76 6.81 5.02 5.58 6.63 4.89 5.43 6.54 4.98 5.66 7.07 4.83 5.31 6.16

10-year 5.37 6.22 7.86 5.14 5.88 7.42 4.97 5.66 7.21 5.12 6.05 8.21 4.93 5.54 6.72

20-year 5.57 6.75 9.20 5.24 6.19 8.35 5.03 5.88 7.97 5.24 6.48 9.66 5.01 5.76 7.34

50-year 5.85 7.56 11.58 5.37 6.62 9.86 5.10 6.16 9.13 5.40 7.10 12.20 5.10 6.05 8.24

100-year 6.07 8.27 13.97 5.45 6.96 11.24 5.14 6.37 10.12 5.51 7.63 14.74 5.16 6.26 9.00
271

Appendix A45. Table showing Rose Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.2±0.7 2.2±0.7 2.2±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.1±0.5

RCP4.5 - mid 2.2±0.7 2.1±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.5±0.7 2.3±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.1±0.5

RCP8.5 - mid 2.1±0.6 2.2±0.7 2.2±0.7 2.3±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.4±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.4±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.2±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 2.1±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.1±0.6 2.3±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.6 2.4±0.6 2.3±0.6 2.2±0.6 2.2±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 2.1±0.7 2.2±0.7 2.1±0.6 2.2±0.5 2.4±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.6 2.5±0.7 2.5±0.7 2.4±0.6 2.1±0.5 2.1±0.5

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 4.4±1.0 4.3±1.4 4.0±0.7 3.9±0.7 4.3±0.6 4.2±0.5 4.1±0.5 4.1±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.9±0.6 3.5±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 4.1±1.3 3.9±1.1 3.9±1.0 4.1±0.7 4.1±0.5 4.2±0.4 4.2±0.3 4.1±0.4 4.2±0.4 3.9±0.3 4.0±0.6 3.5±0.6

RCP8.5 - mid 4.0±1.0 4.4±1.1 4.2±1.0 3.9±0.6 4.1±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.0±0.4 3.8±0.6 4.3±1.3

RCP4.5 - end 4.0±1.0 4.1±0.9 3.9±1.2 4.2±0.7 4.5±0.6 4.2±0.4 4.3±0.5 4.1±0.4 4.2±0.4 4.0±0.5 3.9±0.7 4.1±1.1

RCP8.5 - end 4.4±1.6 4.6±1.0 3.9±1.0 3.7±0.6 4.3±0.5 4.4±0.5 4.2±0.4 4.3±0.4 4.2±0.4 3.9±0.4 3.5±0.5 3.6±0.5

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±3 12±2 12±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP4.5 - mid 12±3 12±3 12±2 12±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3

RCP8.5 - mid 12±3 12±2 12±2 11±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3

RCP4.5 - end 12±3 12±2 12±2 12±2 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

RCP8.5 - end 12±3 12±3 12±2 12±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 11±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 11±3 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±3

RCP4.5 - mid 11±3 11±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 11±2 10±1 10±2 10±2 11±3

RCP8.5 - mid 11±2 10±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2

RCP4.5 - end 10±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 11±2 11±3 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±1 10±2

RCP8.5 - end 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±2 10±2 11±3 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 11±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 30±51 31±65 91±81 134±45 141±31 137±29 136±29 132±28 131±27 124±30 101±47 56±49

RCP4.5 - mid 33±50 28±59 76±79 133±48 139±28 134±30 135±28 131±26 129±25 126±28 105±46 62±53

RCP8.5 - mid 40±46 34±61 89±86 135±43 139±26 140±29 136±29 136±27 130±25 126±27 104±42 60±52

RCP4.5 - end 36±50 23±63 72±82 133±47 138±28 135±28 135±28 132±26 130±24 128±28 106±43 63±52

RCP8.5 - end 40±49 32±61 77±84 134±42 139±28 134±26 134±26 131±26 129±23 126±24 110±37 63±47

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 5±73 357±88 84±106 132±41 124±34 127±29 135±24 125±17 121±26 120±29 105±38 60±60

RCP4.5 - mid 357±66 350±65 61±115 132±49 133±24 125±27 130±21 128±17 121±16 121±20 102±42 89±66

RCP8.5 - mid 37±72 345±79 57±98 133±39 129±27 133±24 131±26 130±19 123±17 120±24 102±43 75±57

RCP4.5 - end 24±80 347±74 47±100 121±54 128±22 132±29 128±19 128±25 123±19 119±19 111±33 82±58

RCP8.5 - end 9±75 338±61 349±111 134±50 123±32 131±20 128±22 128±21 125±19 119±20 115±30 87±44
272

Appendix A46. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Rose Atoll 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 6.14 6.99 8.46 5.82 7.02 9.82 6.04 7.34 10.47 6.00 7.30 10.26 6.11 7.17 9.39

5-year 6.71 8.26 11.29 6.29 8.68 15.74 6.47 8.95 16.49 6.49 8.96 16.01 6.56 8.53 13.46

10-year 7.15 9.42 14.32 6.68 10.43 23.75 6.81 10.57 24.32 6.87 10.63 23.36 6.90 9.81 18.27

20-year 7.61 10.79 18.41 7.08 12.76 37.08 7.15 12.62 36.88 7.25 12.74 34.96 7.25 11.38 25.36

50-year 8.23 12.97 26.09 7.66 17.06 69.15 7.60 16.22 65.81 7.78 16.44 61.19 7.72 14.00 40.14

100-year 8.72 14.97 34.30 8.14 21.58 112.59 7.94 19.81 103.41 8.19 20.13 94.68 8.07 16.48 57.60
273

Appendix A47. Table showing Howland monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.4±0.5 2.4±0.4 2.2±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.8±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.1±0.5 2.3±0.5

RCP4.5 - mid 2.4±0.5 2.4±0.4 2.3±0.4 2.1±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.8±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.4 1.8±0.4 2.0±0.5 2.3±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 2.4±0.4 2.4±0.5 2.2±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.4 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.8±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.3±0.5

RCP4.5 - end 2.4±0.4 2.4±0.5 2.3±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.3 1.9±0.4 1.9±0.3 1.9±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.8±0.4 2.0±0.5 2.3±0.5

RCP8.5 - end 2.3±0.4 2.3±0.4 2.2±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.8±0.3 1.9±0.3 2.0±0.3 2.0±0.3 1.9±0.3 1.8±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.2±0.5

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 3.6±0.5 3.5±0.2 3.3±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.7±0.4 2.6±0.2 2.8±0.3 2.8±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.9±0.5 3.2±0.3 3.5±0.4

RCP4.5 - mid 3.5±0.3 3.5±0.3 3.4±0.4 3.0±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.7±0.2 2.9±0.1 2.8±0.2 2.7±0.6 2.7±0.1 3.1±0.6 3.3±0.2

RCP8.5 - mid 3.5±0.4 3.6±0.3 3.3±0.3 2.9±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.6±0.1 2.7±0.3 3.1±0.3 3.5±0.4

RCP4.5 - end 3.5±0.3 3.6±0.3 3.2±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.7±0.2 2.7±0.2 2.7±0.1 2.6±0.2 2.7±0.2 3.3±0.6 3.5±0.3

RCP8.5 - end 3.3±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.1±0.2 2.9±0.4 2.7±0.4 2.7±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.6±0.2 2.8±0.6 2.9±0.2 3.3±0.3

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 11±3 10±3 10±3 10±2 10±2 11±2 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±2 10±3 11±2 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - mid 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±2 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±3 11±2 12±2

RCP4.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 11±2 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±2 12±2

RCP8.5 - end 12±2 12±2 11±2 10±2 10±3 10±3 10±2 10±3 10±3 11±3 11±2 12±2

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 13±3 13±3 12±2 11±2 11±2 11±3 11±2 10±2 10±2 12±2 13±2 13±2

RCP4.5 - mid 14±2 13±3 12±2 11±1 11±2 10±2 11±3 10±2 11±2 11±3 13±3 13±2

RCP8.5 - mid 13±2 13±2 12±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±3 11±2 10±2 12±3 12±3 13±2

RCP4.5 - end 14±3 13±2 12±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 11±2 10±2 10±3 11±3 12±2 13±3

RCP8.5 - end 14±3 13±2 12±2 11±2 10±1 11±2 10±2 10±3 11±2 11±2 12±2 13±3

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 27±23 29±24 41±26 65±27 97±30 111±22 114±19 117±18 114±26 88±37 48±34 32±26

RCP4.5 - mid 27±25 29±24 39±23 63±26 95±28 109±23 113±17 116±16 118±20 95±32 53±34 34±26

RCP8.5 - mid 29±23 31±22 38±25 62±27 96±26 111±21 114±18 119±18 119±21 97±33 51±35 33±26

RCP4.5 - end 27±26 26±25 37±25 62±28 96±28 110±22 115±19 119±19 120±20 99±37 52±37 33±29

RCP8.5 - end 28±25 30±24 40±25 65±28 96±27 110±21 114±19 119±18 120±21 104±31 64±32 38±29

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 18±23 19±26 32±26 53±32 98±60 118±26 122±28 114±12 110±22 56±58 23±38 16±33

RCP4.5 - mid 11±24 10±33 32±25 54±31 94±38 109±21 114±12 109±12 117±34 81±37 29±42 26±24

RCP8.5 - mid 23±24 26±21 37±21 46±29 101±27 110±22 110±15 120±24 117±17 71±48 4±58 14±32

RCP4.5 - end 13±28 18±28 25±27 52±30 101±46 107±33 120±19 118±26 122±29 82±52 20±56 8±40

RCP8.5 - end 8±23 22±25 35±24 53±36 91±42 110±24 113±22 118±22 125±36 91±63 40±33 24±25
274

Appendix A48. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Howland 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 4.10 4.40 4.88 4.05 4.40 5.03 4.06 4.41 5.01 4.01 4.36 4.99 3.88 4.34 5.26

5-year 4.32 4.84 5.79 4.26 4.90 6.18 4.22 4.78 5.83 4.17 4.75 5.97 4.07 4.88 6.82

10-year 4.48 5.22 6.70 4.43 5.35 7.39 4.33 5.06 6.56 4.28 5.08 6.96 4.21 5.37 8.54

20-year 4.64 5.66 7.88 4.60 5.88 9.01 4.42 5.34 7.39 4.38 5.44 8.21 4.34 5.93 10.94

50-year 4.86 6.33 9.96 4.83 6.71 12.01 4.53 5.71 8.67 4.51 5.97 10.41 4.51 6.82 15.60

100-year 5.02 6.92 12.05 5.01 7.45 15.19 4.60 5.99 9.81 4.60 6.41 12.62 4.64 7.62 20.75
275

Appendix A49. Table showing Jarvis monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for significant wave 

height, peak wave period, and peak wave direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wave Height 

(m)

Hindcast 2.4±0.5 2.4±0.4 2.2±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.1±0.5 2.3±0.4

RCP4.5 - mid 2.4±0.4 2.4±0.4 2.2±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.3±0.4

RCP8.5 - mid 2.4±0.4 2.3±0.4 2.2±0.4 2.0±0.3 1.9±0.3 2.0±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.4 1.9±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.3±0.4

RCP4.5 - end 2.4±0.4 2.4±0.4 2.2±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.3 2.0±0.4 2.0±0.4 2.3±0.4

RCP8.5 - end 2.3±0.4 2.3±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.3 1.9±0.3 2.1±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.1±0.4 2.0±0.3 1.9±0.3 2.0±0.3 2.2±0.4

Top 5 percent Wave 

Height (m)

Hindcast 3.5±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.1±0.2 3.0±0.4 2.9±0.2 2.9±0.2 3.1±0.2 3.1±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.2 3.4±0.9 3.3±0.3

RCP4.5 - mid 3.5±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.2±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.9±0.3 2.9±0.2 3.0±0.2 3.0±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.7±0.2 3.0±0.3 3.3±0.2

RCP8.5 - mid 3.4±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.1±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.9±0.2 3.1±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.2 3.0±0.3 3.3±0.2

RCP4.5 - end 3.4±0.3 3.4±0.3 3.1±0.3 3.0±0.3 2.9±0.2 3.0±0.3 3.0±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.4 3.1±0.4 3.3±0.3

RCP8.5 - end 3.3±0.3 3.3±0.3 3.0±0.2 2.8±0.2 2.8±0.2 3.0±0.2 3.0±0.2 2.9±0.2 2.7±0.2 2.8±0.3 2.8±0.2 3.3±0.3

Mean Wave Period 

(s)

Hindcast 13±2 13±2 12±2 12±3 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±2 13±2

RCP4.5 - mid 13±2 13±2 12±2 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±3 13±3

RCP8.5 - mid 13±2 13±2 12±2 12±3 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±2 13±2

RCP4.5 - end 13±2 13±2 12±2 12±3 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±3 13±3

RCP8.5 - end 13±3 13±2 12±2 12±3 12±3 12±3 11±3 11±3 12±3 12±3 12±3 13±3

Top 5 percent Wave 

Period (s)

Hindcast 15±2 15±2 14±2 14±2 14±2 13±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 15±2

RCP4.5 - mid 16±2 15±2 14±3 14±3 14±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 14±3 14±3 14±3 15±2

RCP8.5 - mid 15±2 15±2 13±2 13±3 14±2 14±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 14±3 14±3 15±3

RCP4.5 - end 15±3 15±2 13±3 14±3 14±3 13±3 13±3 13±3 12±3 14±3 13±3 15±2

RCP8.5 - end 16±2 15±2 14±2 13±3 14±2 14±3 12±3 13±3 13±3 14±3 14±3 15±2

Mean Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 21±33 21±35 41±43 87±48 126±36 127±26 127±21 127±20 127±24 109±39 54±50 30±35

RCP4.5 - mid 19±34 20±32 36±40 81±48 123±39 128±26 125±20 127±19 130±19 116±36 59±50 29±37

RCP8.5 - mid 24±32 23±33 36±41 81±51 124±36 128±25 126±21 130±20 130±21 120±35 59±51 29±37

RCP4.5 - end 21±35 19±35 33±39 80±52 126±37 128±26 128±22 129±20 132±20 120±36 61±52 29±39

RCP8.5 - end 22±33 22±34 35±41 82±48 123±35 129±24 127±21 129±19 132±20 124±32 77±46 34±39

Top 5 percent Wave 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 344±32 355±28 15±43 114±89 162±34 143±26 143±24 134±17 137±19 104±59 4±68 2±35

RCP4.5 - mid 349±27 350±32 7±49 113±80 157±40 141±28 135±18 140±18 144±22 128±42 28±59 7±31

RCP8.5 - mid 358±26 357±29 13±36 76±74 151±36 146±23 141±24 145±22 140±17 130±49 32±50 357±40

RCP4.5 - end 351±29 352±26 351±53 92±109 160±35 146±28 146±19 141±23 141±22 135±60 6±67 355±38

RCP8.5 - end 347±18 355±26 4±36 100±81 160±30 150±27 138±21 141±24 142±21 140±56 48±59 6±29
276

Appendix A50. Table showing return values of ensemble-average significant wave heights of hindcast and 

forecast scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Jarvis location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wave height values are in meters]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 4.05 4.34 4.81 3.96 4.24 4.75 3.86 4.09 4.47 3.97 4.30 4.91 3.84 4.07 4.47

5-year 4.28 4.80 5.74 4.06 4.49 5.32 3.96 4.31 4.95 4.11 4.66 5.81 3.94 4.29 4.94

10-year 4.46 5.22 6.72 4.12 4.66 5.79 4.02 4.47 5.36 4.21 4.96 6.68 4.00 4.44 5.32

20-year 4.65 5.71 8.01 4.17 4.81 6.29 4.08 4.62 5.80 4.30 5.26 7.76 4.04 4.58 5.72

50-year 4.91 6.49 10.36 4.22 5.00 7.01 4.14 4.82 6.46 4.41 5.70 9.59 4.09 4.75 6.29

100-year 5.11 7.20 12.82 4.25 5.13 7.60 4.17 4.96 7.00 4.48 6.06 11.37 4.12 4.87 6.76
277

Appendix B. Wind Speed and Wind Direction Statistics

Appendix B1. Table showing American Samoa monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind 

speed and mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 5.2±2.9 5.0±2.8 5.1±2.8 5.4±2.7 6.3±2.9 6.9±2.7 6.9±2.7 7.1±2.7 7.1±2.7 6.8±2.7 6.0±2.8 5.3±2.6

RCP4.5 - mid 5.3±2.8 5.1±2.8 5.2±2.7 5.5±2.7 6.5±2.9 7.0±2.7 7.1±2.7 7.1±2.6 7.4±2.7 7.0±2.7 6.2±2.9 5.4±2.6

RCP8.5 - mid 5.2±2.8 5.1±2.8 5.1±2.9 5.5±2.8 6.3±2.9 6.8±2.7 6.9±2.7 7.1±2.8 7.3±2.6 6.9±2.7 6.0±2.7 5.4±3.0

RCP4.5 - end 5.2±2.7 5.2±2.7 4.8±2.7 5.4±2.8 6.6±3.0 7.2±2.6 6.9±2.8 7.2±2.6 7.3±2.6 6.9±2.7 6.1±2.7 5.5±2.8

RCP8.5 - end 5.4±2.8 5.3±2.8 5.2±2.8 5.2±2.6 6.2±2.9 7.0±2.8 7.0±2.7 7.3±2.6 7.3±2.6 7±2.6 6.1±2.7 5.3±2.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.2±2.5 12.5±2.9 12.4±2.1 11.7±1.3 12.9±1.6 12.8±1.5 12.6±1.0 12.8±1.1 12.6±1.0 12.6±1.2 12.4±1.3 11.7±2.0

RCP4.5 - mid 12.6±2.3 12.6±2.6 11.6±2.1 11.9±1.3 12.6±1.4 12.5±1.0 12.5±0.8 12.4±0.9 12.9±1.0 12.6±0.8 12.7±1.5 11.5±1.7

RCP8.5 - mid 12.3±2.5 12.5±2.3 12.6±2.7 12.1±1.2 12.4±1.0 12.4±1.2 12.8±1.4 12.8±1.0 12.5±0.8 12.6±1.1 12.2±1.5 13.5±2.7

RCP4.5 - end 12.2±2.3 12.1±2.3 11.9±2.4 12.4±2.3 12.8±1.8 12.5±1.1 12.6±1.1 12.5±1.0 12.6±1.0 12.6±1.1 11.9±1.3 12.4±2.1

RCP8.5 - end 12.7±2.9 13.0±2.6 12.6±2.8 11.4±1.5 12.7±1.6 13.0±1.1 12.6±0.9 12.9±1.0 12.7±1.0 12.1±0.8 11.8±1.2 11.4±1.4

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 242±83 217±98 233±104 281±68 284±53 285±43 286±43 283±39 285±38 285±39 280±52 268±66

RCP4.5 - mid 243±79 207±97 219±106 283±72 286±49 284±43 285±43 285±38 285±34 286±37 284±48 271±67

RCP8.5 - mid 249±71 214±96 235±108 285±70 288±49 287±44 283±44 286±41 285±37 283±38 279±49 266±70

RCP4.5 - end 250±76 214±94 233±106 279±73 286±48 283±40 284±43 285±37 286±33 285±36 280±48 269±63

RCP8.5 - end 250±70 229±93 232±97 278±70 283±50 285±41 286±39 285±34 286±31 284±34 277±45 269±55

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 205±93 182±89 183±89 289±54 291±36 296±31 296±24 292±24 294±27 295±24 287±40 280±63

RCP4.5 - mid 196±79 164±67 164±85 292±53 294±33 290±32 295±23 296±23 294±23 293±19 289±39 281±57

RCP8.5 - mid 226±72 152±76 178±102 294±45 294±32 297±33 293±31 298±23 294±22 294±25 283±33 284±57

RCP4.5 - end 218±82 169±84 166±82 266±76 296±33 295±25 298±25 296±22 297±18 296±17 290±33 286±53

RCP8.5 - end 234±85 160±94 173±78 280±65 292±40 297±25 297±23 298±24 297±18 294±16 286±33 285±37
278

Appendix B2. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the American Samoa 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 18.63 20.53 23.67 18.06 19.99 23.26 18.84 20.96 24.46 17.77 20.54 26.43 18.16 20.54 25.11

5-year 19.71 22.87 28.72 18.90 21.87 27.47 19.79 22.99 28.82 18.62 23.23 34.98 18.99 22.82 31.32

10-year 20.47 24.76 33.47 19.43 23.25 31.07 20.37 24.43 32.42 19.18 25.46 43.94 19.53 24.60 37.24

20-year 21.18 26.77 39.22 19.88 24.59 35.09 20.85 25.81 36.31 19.68 27.89 55.82 20.00 26.44 44.50

50-year 22.04 29.63 48.71 20.38 26.31 41.09 21.38 27.52 41.92 20.25 31.41 77.66 20.53 28.96 56.65

100-year 22.63 31.94 57.64 20.69 27.57 46.23 21.70 28.75 46.56 20.62 34.33 100.54 20.86 30.94 68.25
279

Appendix B3. Table showing Kauai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 6.9±3.1 6.9±3.1 7.5±3.1 8.0±2.7 8.1±2.4 8.6±2.0 8.5±1.9 8.2±2.2 7.8±2.5 8.1±2.9 7.9±3.1 7.3±3.2

RCP4.5 - mid 6.8±3.1 6.9±3.1 7.6±3.1 8.4±2.8 7.9±2.4 8.4±2.0 8.8±1.7 8.2±2.0 7.7±2.4 8.0±2.8 8.1±3.0 7.3±3.1

RCP8.5 - mid 6.9±3.2 6.9±3.2 7.5±3.1 8.1±2.6 7.8±2.3 8.2±2.0 8.5±1.8 8.2±2.1 7.6±2.4 8.0±2.8 8.1±2.9 7.5±3.1

RCP4.5 - end 6.4±3.0 6.9±3.2 7.6±3.1 8.0±2.7 8.0±2.3 8.4±1.9 8.5±1.8 8.2±2.1 7.7±2.4 8.1±2.8 8.1±3.0 7.3±3.1

RCP8.5 - end 6.4±3.1 6.5±3.1 7.4±3.0 8.1±2.6 7.6±2.3 8.1±1.8 8.5±1.7 8.0±1.9 7.6±2.2 8.0±2.6 8.2±2.8 7.0±3.2

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.5±1.2 13.5±1.2 13.6±1.0 13.0±0.8 12.3±0.7 12.5±1.0 12.1±1.1 12.4±1.4 12.5±1.1 13.7±1.4 14.0±1.0 13.8±1.2

RCP4.5 - mid 13.4±1.2 13.5±1.0 13.4±0.9 13.4±0.8 12.6±0.9 12.0±0.8 12.1±1.1 11.9±0.9 12.8±1.5 13.6±1.4 13.8±1.1 13.6±1.1

RCP8.5 - mid 13.9±1.1 13.7±1.2 13.8±1.0 13.0±0.8 12.0±0.7 11.9±0.6 12.0±1.3 12.4±1.2 12.4±1.1 13.9±1.3 13.5±0.8 13.9±1.0

RCP4.5 - end 12.8±1.1 13.7±1.0 13.5±0.7 13.1±0.8 12.4±0.8 11.9±0.9 12.2±1.3 12.7±1.5 12.5±1.3 13.6±1.6 13.8±0.8 13.6±1.0

RCP8.5 - end 13.1±1.3 13.5±1.2 13.2±0.8 12.7±0.6 11.7±0.7 11.5±0.7 12.1±1.5 12.0±1.6 12.1±1.9 13.1±1.7 13.7±1.3 13.7±1.3

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 248±77 243±78 248±50 250±35 253±24 256±17 256±17 258±24 258±30 255±34 251±41 254±59

RCP4.5 - mid 247±76 249±69 250±52 251±32 254±24 256±16 256±15 257±22 258±28 254±35 251±37 251±54

RCP8.5 - mid 248±72 244±73 248±52 249±29 254±23 256±16 256±17 257±24 259±29 253±35 249±37 252±55

RCP4.5 - end 252±78 244±72 247±50 250±33 254±22 256±15 256±18 257±24 257±32 254±33 250±37 252±50

RCP8.5 - end 250±70 243±75 248±50 250±31 254±23 257±14 256±15 257±21 257±28 253±30 252±32 253±53

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 232±66 238±51 244±26 245±17 247±13 251±15 252±13 258±31 255±24 253±31 247±22 246±39

RCP4.5 - mid 234±68 246±39 246±22 246±16 246±15 252±18 252±23 251±26 256±31 255±34 248±22 241±38

RCP8.5 - mid 241±46 240±41 243±25 244±12 245±10 247±7 253±20 257±33 259±35 250±28 242±19 245±32

RCP4.5 - end 243±65 238±50 243±22 245±16 246±12 248±10 250±20 257±41 252±37 250±32 244±19 246±27

RCP8.5 - end 240±37 236±42 244±18 246±11 248±12 249±10 253±23 255±25 264±40 251±28 246±23 250±26
280

Appendix B4. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kauai location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 17.80 18.92 20.66 17.25 18.57 20.94 16.99 18.05 20.04 17.24 18.45 20.50 17.54 19.22 22.16

5-year 18.44 20.16 23.07 17.67 19.62 23.58 17.42 19.17 22.95 17.66 19.41 22.68 18.31 21.02 26.41

10-year 18.85 21.06 25.05 17.91 20.34 25.76 17.71 20.08 25.81 17.90 20.05 24.37 18.82 22.45 30.38

20-year 19.20 21.92 27.17 18.10 21.01 28.11 17.97 21.05 29.39 18.08 20.61 26.09 19.29 23.94 35.14

50-year 19.59 23.01 30.21 18.29 21.82 31.50 18.28 22.43 35.53 18.27 21.26 28.42 19.83 25.99 42.92

100-year 19.83 23.80 32.71 18.40 22.38 34.30 18.49 23.55 41.56 18.37 21.69 30.22 20.20 27.62 50.18
281

Appendix B5. Table showing Big Island of Hawaii monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind 

speed and mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 7.0±3.0 6.8±3.1 7.7±2.9 8.2±2.5 8±2.1 8.5±1.8 8.2±1.8 7.9±2.0 7.4±2.3 7.7±2.6 8.1±2.8 7.7±3.0

RCP4.5 - mid 6.9±3.0 7.1±3.1 7.7±3.0 8.4±2.6 8.0±2.0 8.3±1.7 8.4±1.7 7.8±2.0 7.2±2.2 7.5±2.6 8.2±2.8 7.7±3.0

RCP8.5 - mid 7.0±3.1 7.0±3.1 7.6±2.9 8.2±2.4 7.9±2.0 8.2±1.7 8.2±1.7 8.0±2.0 7.1±2.2 7.3±2.6 8.0±2.6 7.9±2.9

RCP4.5 - end 6.7±2.9 6.9±3.0 7.7±2.9 8.1±2.4 8.0±1.9 8.5±1.7 8.3±1.8 7.9±2.0 7.3±2.3 7.5±2.6 8.1±2.8 7.8±2.9

RCP8.5 - end 6.6±2.9 6.4±2.9 7.5±2.8 8.1±2.4 7.6±1.9 8.2±1.5 8.4±1.6 7.7±1.9 7.1±2.1 7.4±2.5 8.0±2.7 7.6±3.0

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.8±0.9 12.9±0.8 13.2±0.9 12.5±0.7 11.7±0.7 11.7±0.9 11.7±0.9 11.8±1.1 11.9±1.3 13.0±1.1 13.7±1.1 13.5±0.9

RCP4.5 - mid 12.9±1.1 13.3±1.0 13.1±0.7 12.9±0.7 11.8±1.3 11.3±0.7 11.7±1.1 11.4±1.0 11.8±1.3 13.0±1.4 13.5±1.1 13.2±1.0

RCP8.5 - mid 13.3±1.0 13.2±1.0 13.0±0.8 12.3±0.8 11.3±0.6 11.1±0.5 11.4±0.8 12.1±1.2 11.3±1.4 12.8±1.3 13.0±0.9 13.7±1.0

RCP4.5 - end 12.4±0.9 13.0±1.0 12.9±0.6 12.3±0.6 11.4±0.7 11.6±1.2 12.0±1.6 12.1±1.8 12.0±1.3 12.9±1.7 13.5±0.9 13.4±1.1

RCP8.5 - end 12.6±1.2 12.5±0.9 12.7±0.7 12.0±0.6 10.9±0.5 11.1±0.8 11.9±1.7 11.8±1.5 11.3±1.6 12.4±1.5 13.3±1.4 13.5±1.2

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 256±51 253±53 251±35 253±24 254±19 254±14 253±16 253±23 255±29 254±32 253±31 255±37

RCP4.5 - mid 256±50 254±46 254±36 251±22 254±17 254±14 252±16 252±25 255±28 253±32 252±28 254±35

RCP8.5 - mid 255±46 253±48 252±37 252±23 255±17 254±14 252±16 253±24 253±31 254±36 252±30 254±38

RCP4.5 - end 259±48 255±51 254±36 253±23 254±16 254±13 252±18 253±27 254±32 253±32 251±30 254±31

RCP8.5 - end 258±42 254±50 253±35 252±22 254±15 253±12 252±16 251±23 252±30 252±33 252±28 255±32

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 249±30 246±21 246±14 249±12 252±11 255±12 255±19 255±20 256±31 251±22 249±20 245±19

RCP4.5 - mid 248±32 248±18 246±13 247±10 252±11 254±13 253±15 251±24 255±29 255±36 249±16 246±18

RCP8.5 - mid 245±23 243±22 245±16 248±12 253±10 253±9 254±20 253±34 254±30 256±37 247±20 248±15

RCP4.5 - end 252±22 244±28 247±13 250±12 252±12 257±22 256±27 255±40 263±50 253±31 244±19 251±18

RCP8.5 - end 251±22 244±22 246±16 249±11 250±7 251±9 257±21 251±30 261±41 256±37 249±14 250±16
282

Appendix B6. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Big Island of Hawaii 

location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 16.30 17.25 18.75 16.40 17.73 20.24 16.14 17.16 19.03 16.76 18.15 20.62 16.68 18.14 20.63

5-year 16.83 18.33 20.96 16.82 18.85 23.24 16.56 18.22 21.68 17.33 19.53 23.95 17.22 19.37 23.46

10-year 17.19 19.15 22.89 17.07 19.66 25.90 16.85 19.06 24.20 17.70 20.59 26.99 17.53 20.22 25.75

20-year 17.50 19.98 25.05 17.27 20.45 28.94 17.10 19.94 27.26 18.02 21.66 30.55 17.78 20.99 28.17

50-year 17.86 21.06 28.35 17.49 21.45 33.65 17.39 21.16 32.35 18.39 23.09 36.23 18.04 21.93 31.58

100-year 18.10 21.89 31.21 17.61 22.18 37.81 17.58 22.13 37.19 18.62 24.19 41.39 18.19 22.57 34.33
283

Appendix B7. Table showing Midway monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 8.7±4.0 8.3±3.8 7.0±3.1 6.4±2.7 5.7±2.4 5.9±2.2 6.8±2.3 6.8±2.5 6.8±2.9 7.3±3.2 7.2±3.3 8.0±3.7

RCP4.5 - mid 8.6±4.0 8.1±3.7 7.1±3.1 6.5±2.8 5.5±2.4 5.6±2.2 6.9±2.2 6.5±2.4 6.6±2.7 7.2±3.1 7.1±3.4 7.8±3.7

RCP8.5 - mid 8.5±3.9 8.2±3.6 7.0±3.2 6.1±2.7 5.5±2.5 5.4±2.2 6.9±2.2 6.7±2.5 6.6±2.9 7.4±3.1 7.1±3.4 7.6±3.8

RCP4.5 - end 8.6±3.8 8.2±3.7 7.1±3.2 6.2±2.8 5.7±2.4 5.5±2.1 6.6±2.2 6.5±2.5 6.5±2.6 7.3±3.0 7.0±3.3 7.6±3.6

RCP8.5 - end 8.2±3.8 8.0±3.5 6.8±3.0 6.2±2.6 5.4±2.4 5.5±2.1 6.5±2.1 6.3±2.2 6.5±2.6 7.1±2.9 6.8±3.1 7.3±3.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 17.9±1.9 16.9±1.5 14.3±1.6 12.4±1.5 10.7±1.0 10.1±0.9 11.5±1.5 12.1±1.8 13.5±1.7 14.4±1.7 14.5±1.6 16.6±1.8

RCP4.5 - mid 17.4±1.6 16.6±1.8 14.1±1.5 12.5±1.3 10.5±1.2 10.1±1.3 11.6±1.6 12.2±2.1 12.5±1.7 13.9±1.7 15.0±1.7 16.6±2.0

RCP8.5 - mid 17.4±1.8 16.4±1.7 14.4±1.7 12.2±1.6 10.9±1.2 9.9±1.1 11.2±1.5 12.4±2.0 13.5±2.0 14.0±1.6 14.6±1.6 16.5±1.9

RCP4.5 - end 17.1±1.7 16.8±2.0 14.5±1.7 12.1±1.4 10.8±1.0 9.8±0.8 11.0±1.5 12.4±2.7 12.4±2.0 14.0±1.7 14.4±1.8 16.0±1.9

RCP8.5 - end 16.8±1.8 16.4±1.7 13.5±1.4 12.0±1.3 10.4±1.0 9.7±1.1 10.7±1.3 11.4±2.2 12.7±2.0 13.2±1.4 13.8±1.6 15.4±1.7

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 92±86 87±89 283±134 255±67 261±54 270±43 267±32 269±37 262±49 252±57 241±92 108±117

RCP4.5 - mid 92±85 84±93 206±136 256±65 260±60 270±47 268±29 270±34 262±46 255±50 250±88 99±117

RCP8.5 - mid 88±92 88±97 203±139 257±71 258±58 270±49 268±33 271±39 262±49 256±50 245±78 106±129

RCP4.5 - end 88±81 87±94 227±126 257±69 262±55 269±46 268±33 270±37 264±43 256±48 250±78 105±130

RCP8.5 - end 88±87 86±88 257±121 259±63 262±55 271±45 268±29 271±34 266±45 258±45 251±71 122±125

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 88±42 90±43 107±82 232±58 249±32 266±32 268±25 279±39 260±37 236±42 190±96 97±60

RCP4.5 - mid 100±55 95±48 109±84 239±45 248±39 265±43 268±27 269±30 256±32 252±39 219±80 100±63

RCP8.5 - mid 89±57 89±47 113±82 236±54 243±37 263±32 270±32 277±44 252±38 244±30 218±68 95±57

RCP4.5 - end 86±42 93±49 117±87 242±53 255±39 261±28 270±27 274±39 260±38 243±36 225±68 98±64

RCP8.5 - end 87±38 88±45 111±90 240±51 251±38 262±28 269±25 282±49 257±43 248±32 237±51 99±75
284

Appendix B8. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Midway location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 22.76 24.25 26.65 22.56 24.09 26.51 22.07 23.70 26.72 22.39 24.33 27.82 21.44 23.30 26.62

5-year 23.54 25.87 30.01 23.16 25.30 28.96 22.46 24.76 29.57 23.10 26.10 32.21 22.09 24.89 30.56

10-year 24.04 27.07 32.88 23.48 26.06 30.72 22.67 25.43 31.78 23.55 27.41 36.10 22.47 26.02 33.92

20-year 24.48 28.25 36.07 23.73 26.71 32.39 22.82 26.01 34.04 23.92 28.70 40.53 22.78 27.10 37.64

50-year 24.97 29.77 40.84 23.97 27.41 34.49 22.95 26.65 37.09 24.33 30.36 47.38 23.11 28.44 43.19

100-year 25.28 30.91 44.91 24.10 27.86 35.99 23.03 27.06 39.46 24.58 31.59 53.42 23.30 29.40 47.92
285

Appendix B9. Table showing Chuuk monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 8.5±2.0 8.5±1.9 8.0±2.0 6.8±2.4 5.2±2.4 4.4±2.4 4.2±2.4 4.3±2.5 4.0±2.3 4.2±2.4 5.3±2.8 7.5±2.6

RCP4.5 - mid 8.4±2.2 8.3±2.0 8.0±2.0 6.9±2.2 5.2±2.4 4.4±2.4 4.5±2.6 4.3±2.5 4.1±2.3 4.1±2.3 4.9±2.5 7.1±2.6

RCP8.5 - mid 8.3±2.1 8.4±1.9 7.9±1.9 7.0±2.0 5.2±2.4 4.5±2.4 4.4±2.4 4.4±2.5 4.2±2.3 4.1±2.4 4.9±2.6 7.1±2.7

RCP4.5 - end 8.2±2.0 8.3±1.9 7.9±2.0 6.7±2.1 5.2±2.4 4.7±2.5 4.5±2.5 4.5±2.6 4.2±2.4 4.1±2.4 4.9±2.5 6.9±2.6

RCP8.5 - end 8.1±2.0 8.0±1.9 7.9±1.7 7.0±2.0 5.5±2.4 4.7±2.5 4.7±2.6 4.5±2.5 4.2±2.5 3.8±2.2 4.6±2.5 7.0±2.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.2±0.8 12.3±1.2 11.7±1.3 11.2±1.3 10.3±1.2 10.2±1.7 10.7±2.1 11.3±2.2 10.7±1.9 10.5±1.9 11.7±1.6 12.4±1.0

RCP4.5 - mid 12.7±1.1 12.1±0.8 11.6±1.3 10.9±0.8 10.2±1.2 10.1±1.6 11.3±2.0 11.8±2.3 11.0±2.1 10.5±1.6 11.1±1.7 12.5±1.6

RCP8.5 - mid 12.5±1.2 12.2±0.9 11.6±1.0 10.9±0.7 10.1±1.3 10.5±2.2 10.6±2.0 11.5±2.2 10.9±2.1 10.5±1.8 11.5±1.6 12.9±1.5

RCP4.5 - end 11.7±0.6 11.9±1.0 11.6±1.4 10.6±0.8 10.2±1.0 10.6±1.8 11.2±1.8 11.7±1.6 11.0±2.0 10.8±1.7 10.7±1.7 12.3±1.3

RCP8.5 - end 12.2±1.3 11.7±1.0 11.3±1.0 10.9±0.9 10.5±1.6 10.3±1.5 11.5±2.3 11.6±1.8 11.4±2.5 9.9±2.3 10.8±1.7 12.1±1.5

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 245±18 244±18 245±23 250±31 257±53 269±71 299±73 324±68 324±74 317±90 263±63 249±30

RCP4.5 - mid 247±23 245±19 246±19 248±26 255±45 268±69 300±73 321±72 322±73 318±85 265±70 252±37

RCP8.5 - mid 247±17 244±16 247±21 249±24 254±44 269±69 302±79 328±72 325±71 328±87 264±68 252±33

RCP4.5 - end 248±17 245±19 247±20 250±25 256±42 265±74 301±76 325±71 327±73 332±87 267±67 253±35

RCP8.5 - end 248±19 246±17 246±17 250±19 256±40 267±68 290±71 317±70 325±70 311±82 267±65 253±31

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 239±16 237±18 237±30 239±37 249±64 275±97 24±80 28±47 41±62 48±73 258±72 240±25

RCP4.5 - mid 237±32 236±16 239±27 240±30 244±33 262±73 33±64 30±54 34±53 55±57 242±77 243±46

RCP8.5 - mid 241±19 233±20 238±28 241±18 247±52 300±82 43±72 37±45 34±43 57±61 251±74 242±39

RCP4.5 - end 239±11 241±29 238±21 241±34 246±47 263±94 41±49 35±35 46±40 50±54 254±79 243±36

RCP8.5 - end 239±24 240±23 238±28 242±16 247±35 274±70 34±67 35±39 29±39 47±80 250±58 245±35
286

Appendix B10. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Chuuk location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 16.86 18.81 22.23 17.32 19.05 21.90 16.86 18.91 22.75 16.13 17.76 20.62 17.63 19.65 22.95

5-year 17.82 21.07 27.64 18.04 20.60 25.22 17.44 20.45 26.90 16.74 19.20 24.03 18.33 21.15 26.21

10-year 18.48 22.94 32.94 18.47 21.66 27.86 17.76 21.51 30.38 17.10 20.22 26.91 18.70 22.10 28.58

20-year 19.09 24.96 39.57 18.82 22.64 30.60 18.01 22.48 34.17 17.40 21.19 30.07 18.98 22.90 30.87

50-year 19.83 27.86 50.97 19.18 23.81 34.41 18.26 23.65 39.71 17.71 22.40 34.74 19.25 23.78 33.78

100-year 20.35 30.25 62.13 19.39 24.62 37.42 18.40 24.46 44.35 17.90 23.26 38.67 19.39 24.33 35.90
287

Appendix B11. Table showing Saipan monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 8.7±2.3 8.6±2.4 8.4±2.3 7.9±2.1 7.1±2.2 6.4±2.5 5.9±3.2 5.8±3.3 5.5±3.0 6.2±3.0 8.4±2.6 8.9±2.2

RCP4.5 - mid 8.8±2.3 8.5±2.4 8.5±2.2 8.0±1.9 7.1±2.2 6.7±2.5 5.9±3.1 5.6±3.0 5.4±3.0 5.7±2.8 7.9±2.5 8.7±2.4

RCP8.5 - mid 8.7±2.3 8.6±2.3 8.4±2.2 7.9±1.8 7.0±2.0 6.8±2.6 6.1±3.2 5.7±3.3 5.6±3.0 5.7±2.8 7.8±2.6 8.9±2.4

RCP4.5 - end 8.6±2.3 8.7±2.2 8.4±2.2 7.8±2.0 7.2±2.0 6.7±2.4 6.2±3.0 5.9±3.3 5.5±2.7 5.7±2.8 8.0±2.6 8.7±2.2

RCP8.5 - end 8.5±2.4 8.3±2.4 8.1±2.1 7.8±1.8 7.1±2.0 6.6±2.5 6.2±3.1 5.7±3.3 5.6±3.0 5.7±2.7 7.8±2.6 8.6±2.3

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.2±0.8 13.2±1.0 13.2±1.7 12.0±1.2 11.8±1.7 12.0±2.1 14.0±2.4 14.6±2.5 13.4±2.8 13.5±2.5 14.1±1.8 13.3±1.2

RCP4.5 - mid 13.1±0.7 13.2±0.8 13.0±1.3 11.9±1.8 11.3±1.3 12.4±2.5 13.6±2.4 13.3±2.3 13.8±3.2 12.2±1.9 13.2±1.9 13.8±1.4

RCP8.5 - mid 13.3±0.9 13.2±0.7 13.0±1.2 11.7±1.0 10.8±1.1 13.2±3.1 14.2±2.5 14.3±2.3 14.0±3.0 12.2±2.2 13.5±2.1 13.8±1.7

RCP4.5 - end 13.0±0.8 13.2±1.0 12.9±0.8 11.8±0.8 10.7±0.7 11.6±2.0 13.6±2.9 14.4±2.5 12.3±2.1 12.4±2.2 13.5±1.8 13.2±1.4

RCP8.5 - end 13.3±0.9 13.0±0.8 12.3±0.9 11.2±0.8 11.0±1.3 11.9±2.3 13.6±2.4 14.3±2.6 13.8±2.4 11.8±1.9 13.3±1.8 13.3±1.6

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 251±21 247±21 251±20 256±20 262±25 266±40 283±79 330±108 294±103 263±63 260±32 255±22

RCP4.5 - mid 251±22 249±21 251±18 255±15 262±27 268±39 281±72 330±115 323±119 263±74 259±34 256±22

RCP8.5 - mid 251±21 250±20 251±18 256±16 261±23 269±37 282±76 342±110 355±125 265±74 260±33 257±22

RCP4.5 - end 251±21 248±20 251±19 256±18 262±24 266±37 280±77 319±105 318±110 265±76 258±31 256±20

RCP8.5 - end 252±21 249±22 251±17 256±14 262±21 268±43 278±69 308±97 338±115 264±74 258±29 257±20

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 240±14 238±12 245±26 248±22 260±33 278±52 357±70 12±57 8±79 278±64 258±39 249±20

RCP4.5 - mid 242±13 239±11 243±19 247±18 260±25 279±51 356±80 28±66 30±76 259±68 256±37 247±27

RCP8.5 - mid 243±12 241±11 243±17 250±12 258±21 282±59 15±63 29±55 40±47 285±70 257±34 251±28

RCP4.5 - end 243±14 237±15 241±12 248±20 259±18 272±51 344±84 36±51 40±57 275±66 255±33 246±19

RCP8.5 - end 243±14 241±13 240±11 251±13 257±14 283±56 12±77 27±55 27±66 269±76 256±24 251±19
288

Appendix B12. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Saipan location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 20.87 22.67 25.25 20.13 22.46 26.21 20.39 22.84 26.87 19.76 21.64 24.46 19.87 22.11 25.83

5-year 21.91 24.49 28.42 21.15 24.58 30.63 21.51 25.23 32.02 20.56 23.13 27.25 20.67 23.87 29.74

10-year 22.52 25.66 30.70 21.76 26.03 34.10 22.21 26.97 36.32 20.98 24.02 29.13 21.11 25.02 32.71

20-year 23.01 26.69 32.86 22.25 27.36 37.69 22.80 28.63 41.00 21.30 24.76 30.83 21.45 26.03 35.70

50-year 23.50 27.85 35.58 22.77 28.96 42.63 23.45 30.74 47.84 21.60 25.54 32.85 21.79 27.18 39.67

100-year 23.79 28.60 37.52 23.08 30.05 46.52 23.86 32.26 53.55 21.76 26.00 34.21 21.98 27.93 42.69
289

Appendix B13. Table showing Asuncion monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 7.3±2.8 7.1±2.8 6.9±2.8 6.6±2.4 6.4±2.3 6.4±2.4 6.3±3.0 6.1±3.0 6.1±2.8 6.9±3.0 7.8±2.7 7.7±2.8

RCP4.5 - mid 7.5±2.7 7.2±2.9 7.0±2.7 6.7±2.5 6.3±2.2 6.6±2.3 6.4±2.7 5.8±2.8 5.8±2.9 6.6±2.7 7.7±2.6 7.5±2.8

RCP8.5 - mid 7.4±2.8 7.2±2.8 6.9±2.7 6.7±2.3 6.2±2.1 6.5±2.4 6.4±2.8 5.8±3.0 6.0±3.0 6.5±2.8 7.6±2.7 7.8±2.7

RCP4.5 - end 7.2±2.8 7.3±2.8 7.0±2.7 6.7±2.4 6.2±2.1 6.5±2.2 6.4±2.8 5.9±2.9 5.7±2.7 6.5±2.9 7.7±2.6 7.4±2.7

RCP8.5 - end 7.3±2.9 7.2±2.8 6.9±2.7 6.4±2.3 6.0±2.0 6.3±2.3 6.5±2.7 6.0±2.8 5.9±2.9 6.5±2.6 7.5±2.5 7.4±2.8

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.0±1.0 12.7±0.9 12.8±1.4 11.7±1.1 11.3±1.6 12.1±2.1 14.2±2.8 14.4±2.7 12.9±2.2 14.0±2.5 13.9±1.6 13.3±1.2

RCP4.5 - mid 12.8±0.9 13.0±0.9 12.6±1.1 12.0±1.5 10.7±1.0 12.2±2.5 13.2±2.5 13.1±2.5 13.6±2.9 12.7±1.8 13.4±1.6 13.7±1.2

RCP8.5 - mid 13.0±0.9 13.0±1.1 12.3±0.9 11.5±0.9 10.4±1.1 12.2±2.6 13.7±2.8 13.5±2.5 14.1±3.1 13.1±2.0 13.2±2.5 13.4±1.2

RCP4.5 - end 12.8±0.9 12.7±0.8 12.6±0.8 11.5±1.1 10.3±1.2 11.5±2.0 13.3±2.7 13.4±2.7 12.2±2.4 13.3±2.1 13.2±1.6 12.9±1.1

RCP8.5 - end 13.2±0.8 12.7±0.8 12.1±0.8 11.2±0.9 9.9±0.8 11.8±2.3 13.7±2.5 13.7±2.6 13.6±2.7 12.4±2.4 12.9±1.5 13.1±1.0

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 245±51 240±52 251±43 262±34 270±33 273±35 279±52 284±67 274±59 268±46 265±37 255±41

RCP4.5 - mid 246±49 243±50 250±40 260±30 271±35 276±31 277±47 284±67 275±63 268±49 264±36 255±43

RCP8.5 - mid 245±48 244±49 251±42 261±32 271±31 277±33 278±50 288±73 279±71 267±50 265±35 256±43

RCP4.5 - end 246±51 242±45 251±42 260±32 272±33 275±30 279±51 287±67 275±62 268±49 264±34 259±41

RCP8.5 - end 246±49 242±48 249±40 261±31 272±30 277±33 280±47 286±61 282±68 268±48 264±32 259±39

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 236±29 236±26 239±21 245±21 265±30 276±40 307±66 320±70 289±70 268±48 255±38 244±26

RCP4.5 - mid 240±24 236±18 239±19 244±17 261±26 287±37 287±66 344±86 290±77 264±54 250±36 244±26

RCP8.5 - mid 242±27 241±25 241±22 247±20 264±25 284±40 313±67 346±86 342±84 268±50 259±36 246±27

RCP4.5 - end 240±25 237±24 239±19 247±18 260±25 277±32 304±64 328±78 295±75 267±54 251±35 244±22

RCP8.5 - end 240±21 238±20 238±15 249±15 263±20 282±40 312±64 327±75 343±92 263±49 255±29 248±24
290

Appendix B14. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Asuncion location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 20.83 22.81 25.78 19.32 21.91 26.53 20.13 22.84 27.40 19.02 21.50 25.87 18.95 21.21 25.18

5-year 22.00 24.98 29.81 20.23 24.13 32.01 21.35 25.53 33.36 19.84 23.48 30.67 19.55 22.69 28.85

10-year 22.73 26.51 33.00 20.77 25.72 36.66 22.12 27.52 38.49 20.31 24.84 34.56 19.87 23.62 31.56

20-year 23.35 27.94 36.30 21.21 27.24 41.82 22.79 29.47 44.20 20.68 26.07 38.70 20.10 24.40 34.23

50-year 24.03 29.70 40.86 21.68 29.12 49.48 23.52 31.98 52.78 21.06 27.55 44.56 20.30 25.24 37.69

100-year 24.45 30.93 44.45 21.96 30.46 56.00 23.99 33.83 60.15 21.27 28.55 49.31 20.41 25.76 40.25
291

Appendix B15. Table showing Kosrae monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 7.5±2.1 7.4±2.0 6.8±2.0 5.7±2.1 4.4±2.0 4.1±2.0 4.2±1.9 4.4±1.9 4.4±2.0 4.3±2.1 4.6±2.4 6.3±2.6

RCP4.5 - mid 7.5±2.0 7.4±2.0 7.0±2.0 5.8±2.1 4.5±2.0 4.2±2.1 4.3±1.9 4.5±2.0 4.5±2.0 4.3±2.1 4.5±2.2 6.1±2.4

RCP8.5 - mid 7.3±2.1 7.5±2.1 7.0±2.0 5.9±2.1 4.5±2.2 4.1±2.0 4.4±2.0 4.5±2.0 4.6±1.9 4.3±2.1 4.4±2.2 5.9±2.5

RCP4.5 - end 7.2±2.0 7.3±1.9 6.9±1.9 5.7±2.0 4.5±2.0 4.2±2.1 4.3±2.0 4.5±2.1 4.5±2.1 4.2±2.1 4.5±2.2 5.9±2.4

RCP8.5 - end 7.1±2.0 7.2±1.9 6.9±1.8 5.9±1.9 4.7±2.1 4.3±2.1 4.4±1.9 4.8±2.0 4.6±2.0 4.2±2.0 4.3±2.0 5.9±2.3

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 11.3±0.8 10.9±0.6 10.9±1.1 10.1±1.2 9.0±1.4 8.8±1.3 9.0±2.1 9.3±2.0 9.6±1.7 9.7±1.7 10.4±1.7 11.5±1.2

RCP4.5 - mid 11.3±0.9 11.0±1.2 10.6±0.7 10.0±0.8 9.0±1.0 9.3±1.7 9.1±1.8 9.7±1.9 9.2±1.5 9.6±1.7 9.9±1.7 11.2±1.3

RCP8.5 - mid 11.2±0.7 11.6±1.5 10.8±0.8 10.5±1.4 9.6±1.6 8.7±1.2 9.5±1.8 9.8±1.7 9.4±1.5 9.5±1.8 10.0±1.3 11.0±0.9

RCP4.5 - end 10.7±0.6 10.6±0.6 10.4±0.8 9.7±0.8 9.1±0.8 9.2±1.9 9.4±2.0 10.1±1.7 9.9±1.5 9.3±1.4 9.9±1.7 11.1±1.2

RCP8.5 - end 10.8±0.7 10.9±1.0 10.4±0.8 9.8±0.6 9.6±1.4 9.5±1.9 9.2±1.9 10.0±2.2 9.2±1.5 9.1±1.5 9.2±1.4 10.6±1.0

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 245±21 245±19 247±25 253±33 267±53 278±60 292±55 301±51 306±55 311±65 278±60 251±38

RCP4.5 - mid 246±23 244±22 246±21 253±31 261±44 272±59 288±55 303±53 304±54 309±62 284±64 256±42

RCP8.5 - mid 246±22 245±21 247±20 250±31 258±47 275±59 289±59 304±57 305±54 309±66 281±64 255±39

RCP4.5 - end 247±23 245±21 247±21 252±31 258±45 273±58 288±57 304±57 307±59 308±66 283±64 256±40

RCP8.5 - end 248±22 247±18 248±19 251±24 259±40 267±55 282±54 299±52 302±52 303±60 281±58 257±35

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 236±14 235±12 232±29 236±31 246±63 262±82 346±92 355±75 18±82 38±80 261±91 233±27

RCP4.5 - mid 234±17 235±25 238±13 238±29 238±43 258±74 330±96 3±71 337±73 8±68 282±105 235±43

RCP8.5 - mid 238±14 237±29 236±17 233±49 233±57 258±89 30±100 30±68 30±82 33±83 226±85 234±25

RCP4.5 - end 232±14 236±20 236±17 242±26 240±24 274±67 30±98 31±74 30±76 33±83 319±114 232±41

RCP8.5 - end 238±16 242±21 240±28 241±20 242±42 251±79 322±99 3±79 329±83 355±91 261±74 235±24
292

Appendix B16. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kosrae location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 15.25 17.04 20.24 15.02 16.86 20.33 14.77 16.36 19.19 14.70 16.54 19.99 14.45 16.35 20.20

5-year 16.20 19.32 25.71 15.67 18.58 24.92 15.43 17.94 23.03 15.35 18.26 24.51 15.19 18.49 26.46

10-year 16.89 21.30 31.37 16.08 19.91 29.21 15.85 19.16 26.52 15.77 19.58 28.70 15.71 20.38 33.25

20-year 17.56 23.52 38.77 16.43 21.25 34.35 16.22 20.38 30.61 16.13 20.91 33.67 16.21 22.52 42.55

50-year 18.42 26.90 52.19 16.83 23.06 42.75 16.63 22.03 37.15 16.52 22.68 41.72 16.82 25.82 60.30

100-year 19.04 29.83 66.03 17.07 24.45 50.58 16.90 23.29 43.10 16.77 24.04 49.15 17.26 28.72 79.58
293

Appendix B17. Table showing Palau monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 7.7±2.5 8.1±2.3 7.3±2.2 6.2±2.2 4.7±2.3 4.0±2.3 4.0±2.5 4.1±2.7 4.0±2.6 4.2±2.6 4.9±2.7 6.5±2.8

RCP4.5 - mid 7.3±2.6 7.7±2.3 7.3±2.1 6.3±2.1 4.7±2.2 4.1±2.3 4.3±2.7 4.0±2.3 3.9±2.3 4.2±2.6 4.7±2.7 6.0±2.8

RCP8.5 - mid 7.5±2.5 7.6±2.3 7.4±2.1 6.3±2.0 4.6±2.2 4.2±2.4 4.2±2.6 4.3±2.6 4.0±2.5 4.1±2.5 4.7±2.6 6.1±2.8

RCP4.5 - end 7.4±2.5 7.8±2.1 7.2±2.2 6.1±2.2 4.7±2.2 4.1±2.3 4.4±2.5 4.3±2.7 4.1±2.6 4.0±2.4 4.5±2.5 5.9±2.7

RCP8.5 - end 7.1±2.4 7.4±2.2 7.2±2.0 6.2±1.9 4.6±2.3 4.2±2.3 4.4±2.6 4.3±2.6 4.2±2.5 4.0±2.3 4.5±2.6 5.8±2.6

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.6±1.1 13.0±1.3 11.8±1.2 10.5±1.3 9.7±1.3 9.9±1.6 10.9±1.4 11.8±1.8 11.5±1.6 11.2±1.5 11.9±2.1 12.3±1.5

RCP4.5 - mid 12.7±1.5 12.2±1.1 11.5±1.1 10.3±1.2 9.6±1.4 10.2±1.8 11.7±1.5 10.3±1.7 10.4±2.0 11.7±2.1 11.8±2.0 12.4±1.9

RCP8.5 - mid 12.3±1.2 12.1±0.9 11.8±1.3 10.5±1.3 9.3±1.0 10.6±2.1 11.0±1.5 11.4±1.7 11.0±2.0 10.9±1.3 11.1±1.5 12.2±1.7

RCP4.5 - end 12.4±1.5 12.1±1.4 11.4±1.2 10.7±1.3 9.5±1.4 10.2±1.8 11.1±1.8 11.6±1.7 11.6±1.8 11.0±2.2 10.8±1.7 11.9±1.6

RCP8.5 - end 11.9±1.1 12.1±1.1 11.7±1.3 10.0±1.0 9.6±1.3 9.9±1.7 11.0±1.8 11.6±1.9 11.5±2.3 10.1±1.5 11.3±2.1 11.8±1.7

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 243±30 239±27 241±33 246±36 257±62 283±85 333±82 350±75 354±86 341±105 255±81 249±47

RCP4.5 - mid 244±37 242±29 243±27 248±33 256±52 287±86 345±83 330±74 339±80 358±103 259±84 248±50

RCP8.5 - mid 244±32 243±28 244±29 248±32 255±52 295±91 345±88 343±77 342±77 348±100 261±87 249±54

RCP4.5 - end 246±32 243±24 244±27 248±37 258±61 288±92 340±87 348±76 347±80 354±103 258±87 250±51

RCP8.5 - end 245±35 243±27 245±26 248±27 258±61 287±91 337±88 342±77 344±77 319±93 264±82 254±51

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 233±29 222±38 232±37 241±39 247±74 44±97 38±51 36±34 53±36 54±46 69±115 241±48

RCP4.5 - mid 236±34 236±31 236±34 246±42 250±50 8±102 45±34 40±44 37±47 55±45 55±119 234±80

RCP8.5 - mid 238±36 242±33 239±40 236±41 245±45 33±61 41±40 37±32 47±35 55±48 55±93 246±68

RCP4.5 - end 235±48 235±26 236±33 244±48 250±63 22±97 37±40 44±35 45±36 55±52 78±130 240±52

RCP8.5 - end 239±36 236±40 244±38 246±31 256±60 10±90 36±42 37±30 41±40 49±63 58±91 253±70
294

Appendix B18. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palau location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 17.15 18.57 20.79 17.09 18.94 22.18 16.67 18.62 22.31 17.31 18.94 21.49 17.04 18.55 21.18

5-year 17.95 20.16 23.94 17.66 20.31 25.51 17.49 20.76 27.93 18.03 20.38 24.37 17.57 19.80 24.09

10-year 18.46 21.32 26.59 17.98 21.22 28.10 18.05 22.55 33.59 18.45 21.33 26.53 17.88 20.65 26.42

20-year 18.91 22.46 29.48 18.22 22.02 30.78 18.57 24.49 40.86 18.79 22.18 28.68 18.12 21.42 28.88

50-year 19.41 23.92 33.74 18.45 22.93 34.42 19.20 27.33 53.70 19.13 23.15 31.50 18.37 22.34 32.34

100-year 19.74 25.00 37.32 18.57 23.53 37.27 19.63 29.69 66.64 19.32 23.80 33.62 18.51 22.97 35.12
295

Appendix B19. Table showing Pohnpei monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 8.5±2.0 8.4±2.0 7.8±2.1 6.7±2.4 5.0±2.4 4.3±2.4 4.1±2.3 4.2±2.3 4.1±2.4 4.2±2.4 5.2±2.8 7.5±2.7

RCP4.5 - mid 8.4±2.2 8.3±2.0 8.0±2.0 6.8±2.3 5.2±2.4 4.5±2.4 4.3±2.4 4.3±2.4 4.1±2.3 4.1±2.3 4.9±2.5 7.2±2.7

RCP8.5 - mid 8.3±2.1 8.4±2.2 7.9±2.1 6.9±2.2 5.2±2.5 4.5±2.3 4.4±2.4 4.3±2.4 4.2±2.2 4.1±2.3 4.8±2.6 7.1±2.7

RCP4.5 - end 8.2±2.0 8.2±1.9 7.8±2.0 6.6±2.2 5.2±2.4 4.7±2.5 4.3±2.2 4.4±2.5 4.2±2.4 4.1±2.3 4.9±2.6 6.9±2.7

RCP8.5 - end 8.0±2.1 8.0±1.9 7.9±1.8 6.9±2.0 5.5±2.4 4.6±2.4 4.5±2.4 4.4±2.4 4.1±2.3 3.9±2.1 4.6±2.5 7.0±2.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.2±0.8 12.1±0.7 11.6±0.7 11.0±0.9 10.3±1.6 10.3±1.9 10.4±2.1 10.8±2.0 11.1±2.2 11.0±1.9 11.8±1.4 12.6±1.2

RCP4.5 - mid 12.6±1.0 11.9±0.6 11.6±0.8 10.8±0.5 10.1±0.9 10.2±1.7 10.9±2.2 11.4±2.2 10.8±2.2 10.5±2.3 11.0±1.6 12.7±1.1

RCP8.5 - mid 12.2±0.9 12.6±1.6 11.7±1.1 11.1±1.0 10.3±1.3 10.0±1.5 10.7±2.1 11.6±2.2 10.6±2.0 10.5±1.8 11.3±1.4 12.6±1.2

RCP4.5 - end 11.8±0.7 11.6±0.6 11.4±0.9 10.6±1.1 10.3±1.1 10.5±1.7 10.2±1.9 11.8±2.5 11.3±1.9 10.6±1.9 11.2±1.8 12.3±1.1

RCP8.5 - end 12.0±0.9 11.7±1.0 11.4±1.3 10.8±0.7 10.6±1.3 10.4±1.7 11.0±2.3 11.6±2.3 10.9±2.4 9.6±2.2 11.1±1.7 12.0±1.2

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 245±17 244±16 246±21 250±30 255±51 266±66 290±68 310±66 319±72 312±83 263±59 248±28

RCP4.5 - mid 247±21 245±18 246±17 249±27 255±41 263±62 285±65 312±70 316±70 317±81 266±65 252±35

RCP8.5 - mid 246±16 244±17 247±18 248±25 253±42 264±61 287±72 317±74 316±69 320±83 265±66 251±31

RCP4.5 - end 248±17 245±18 247±19 251±25 253±41 263±64 285±67 318±72 320±73 324±82 269±65 252±34

RCP8.5 - end 248±18 246±15 247±17 249±18 253±37 261±57 281±64 309±66 315±66 308±77 267±61 252±27

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 238±13 236±13 239±18 239±22 240±47 273±92 20±101 36±65 49±63 43±83 256±62 235±20

RCP4.5 - mid 239±21 238±12 240±16 241±27 239±28 250±64 35±90 37±64 32±64 44±64 230±67 237±31

RCP8.5 - mid 238±12 234±27 241±21 237±29 245±41 254±75 53±78 47±50 41±60 56±68 239±62 240±25

RCP4.5 - end 238±11 239±12 239±18 242±25 241±23 255±77 40±85 49±54 50±46 44±68 251±87 237±29

RCP8.5 - end 238±19 241±14 236±26 241±10 238±37 247±63 15±95 46±50 30±64 23±98 237±52 238±21
296

Appendix B20. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Pohnpei location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 17.09 18.67 21.14 17.24 19.07 22.05 16.66 18.63 22.34 16.50 18.44 21.85 17.26 18.87 21.44

5-year 17.92 20.32 24.40 18.09 20.85 25.80 17.38 20.54 27.35 17.16 20.03 25.68 17.92 20.23 24.23

10-year 18.44 21.49 27.03 18.61 22.12 28.89 17.85 22.02 32.06 17.54 21.12 28.81 18.30 21.12 26.32

20-year 18.87 22.59 29.80 19.05 23.33 32.20 18.26 23.54 37.75 17.84 22.13 32.15 18.60 21.90 28.39

50-year 19.35 23.94 33.71 19.53 24.84 36.96 18.72 25.61 47.13 18.15 23.34 36.94 18.89 22.80 31.09

100-year 19.64 24.90 36.86 19.83 25.91 40.87 19.01 27.21 55.95 18.33 24.17 40.84 19.06 23.38 33.11
297

Appendix B21. Table showing Yap monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and mean 

wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 8.6±2.4 8.9±2.2 8.2±2.1 7.1±2.1 5.5±2.3 4.6±2.5 4.5±2.9 4.6±3.1 4.4±2.8 4.6±2.6 6.0±3.0 7.8±2.7

RCP4.5 - mid 8.3±2.5 8.6±2.2 8.3±2.1 7.2±2.0 5.5±2.3 4.7±2.6 4.7±3.1 4.5±2.7 4.4±2.6 4.7±2.7 5.7±2.8 7.5±2.7

RCP8.5 - mid 8.5±2.3 8.5±2.1 8.2±2.1 7.2±1.9 5.4±2.3 4.8±2.7 4.6±2.9 4.7±3.0 4.4±2.8 4.4±2.4 5.4±2.7 7.5±2.8

RCP4.5 - end 8.4±2.4 8.7±2.0 8.1±2.0 7.0±2.1 5.6±2.2 4.7±2.6 4.9±2.9 4.8±3.0 4.5±2.8 4.4±2.5 5.5±2.6 7.3±2.6

RCP8.5 - end 8.2±2.3 8.3±2.0 7.9±1.9 7.1±1.7 5.6±2.3 4.8±2.5 4.8±2.9 4.8±3.0 4.6±2.7 4.2±2.3 5.3±2.8 7.2±2.6

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.2±1.2 13.4±1.3 12.3±1.4 11.0±0.9 10.3±1.4 10.8±2.0 12.5±2.1 13.4±1.9 12.5±2.1 11.4±1.8 12.8±2.2 13.1±1.6

RCP4.5 - mid 12.8±1.0 12.6±1.2 12.2±1.3 10.9±1.0 10.2±1.3 11.1±2.2 13.4±1.9 11.8±2.3 11.9±2.5 12.1±2.2 12.3±1.9 13.1±1.6

RCP8.5 - mid 13.1±1.2 12.5±0.8 12.5±1.4 11.0±1.4 10.0±1.3 12.2±2.6 12.5±1.7 13.1±2.2 12.5±2.3 10.8±1.9 11.5±1.6 13.0±1.6

RCP4.5 - end 13.2±1.4 12.4±1.0 12.0±1.3 11.1±1.4 10.1±1.4 10.8±1.9 12.7±2.1 12.9±1.9 12.4±2.1 11.5±2.5 11.5±1.8 12.6±1.4

RCP8.5 - end 12.8±1.2 12.4±0.9 11.7±0.9 10.5±1.1 10.0±1.3 10.7±1.9 12.7±2.5 13.3±2.1 12.1±2.7 10.4±2.1 12.1±2.1 12.5±1.7

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 246±24 243±22 246±25 250±29 259±49 276±83 345±93 10±85 14±95 308±107 260±63 251±33

RCP4.5 - mid 247±28 245±21 246±22 251±24 257±46 279±83 346±95 358±87 5±93 339±108 257±65 252±37

RCP8.5 - mid 247±23 246±21 247±23 252±25 258±44 283±86 349±93 8±86 8±91 345±115 260±70 252±38

RCP4.5 - end 249±23 245±19 247±21 252±26 260±43 275±84 343±95 5±86 6±89 352±112 259±65 253±35

RCP8.5 - end 248±25 246±21 248±19 251±20 258±47 277±86 328±91 359±86 8±87 320±103 262±64 255±35

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 237±22 233±27 236±35 249±38 253±63 12±110 44±44 34±38 48±51 45±74 285±92 248±41

RCP4.5 - mid 239±21 238±17 244±32 248±16 252±42 341±84 36±42 38±47 31±48 21±79 249±80 249±50

RCP8.5 - mid 238±29 242±24 243±33 245±40 249±41 22±67 38±44 35±30 38±40 51±77 252±83 249±46

RCP4.5 - end 245±32 236±17 240±19 253±44 257±47 335±92 37±45 40±32 38±43 38±72 247±77 242±34

RCP8.5 - end 238±32 237±22 242±19 246±20 255±31 336±90 25±32 33±36 35±45 32±77 282±93 253±44
298

Appendix B22. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Yap location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 18.96 20.51 22.80 18.72 20.38 22.89 18.46 20.32 23.40 18.17 19.98 23.03 18.83 20.67 23.60

5-year 20.01 22.41 26.26 19.40 21.68 25.37 19.04 21.62 26.31 18.83 21.46 26.33 19.45 21.96 26.29

10-year 20.69 23.81 29.10 19.77 22.46 27.06 19.35 22.42 28.41 19.20 22.44 28.90 19.77 22.72 28.13

20-year 21.30 25.17 32.16 20.04 23.11 28.60 19.57 23.09 30.42 19.50 23.32 31.53 20.00 23.35 29.83

50-year 22.01 26.93 36.57 20.30 23.80 30.44 19.78 23.81 32.95 19.79 24.34 35.11 20.20 24.00 31.87

100-year 22.47 28.23 40.20 20.44 24.22 31.70 19.89 24.25 34.77 19.96 25.03 37.90 20.31 24.39 33.27
299

Appendix B23. Table showing Majuro monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 8.7±1.9 8.6±1.9 8.1±2.1 6.8±2.4 5.2±2.5 4.8±2.4 4.5±2.2 4.3±2.1 4.1±2.0 4.2±2.3 5.2±2.7 7.6±2.8

RCP4.5 - mid 8.6±1.9 8.5±1.9 8.3±2.0 6.9±2.3 5.6±2.5 5.1±2.5 4.7±2.3 4.3±2.2 4±1.9 4.2±2.2 4.9±2.6 7.4±2.7

RCP8.5 - mid 8.6±1.9 8.6±2.0 8.1±2.0 7.2±2.3 5.6±2.5 4.9±2.4 4.7±2.3 4.3±2.1 4.1±2.0 4.1±2.0 5.0±2.7 7.2±2.7

RCP4.5 - end 8.4±1.8 8.4±1.8 8.1±1.9 6.9±2.3 5.7±2.5 5.1±2.5 4.6±2.2 4.4±2.1 4.2±2.1 4.1±2.2 4.9±2.5 7.1±2.6

RCP8.5 - end 8.3±1.8 8.4±1.8 8.1±1.7 7.3±2.2 6.1±2.5 5.3±2.5 4.9±2.3 4.4±2.0 4.1±1.9 4.0±2.2 4.8±2.5 7.2±2.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.3±0.7 12.2±0.6 12.0±0.7 11.3±1.0 10.2±1.1 10.0±0.9 9.9±1.4 9.8±1.8 9.3±1.6 10.3±2.1 11.6±1.4 12.7±1.4

RCP4.5 - mid 12.2±0.6 12.1±0.9 11.8±0.7 11.1±0.6 10.5±0.8 10.5±1.1 10.1±1.2 10.1±1.9 8.8±1.7 9.9±2.0 11.2±1.6 12.5±0.9

RCP8.5 - mid 12.2±0.6 12.5±0.7 11.9±0.7 11.8±1.4 10.6±0.9 10.2±1.0 10.4±1.7 10.0±1.8 9.7±2.3 9.4±1.7 11.9±2.0 12.1±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 11.9±0.8 11.9±0.7 11.7±0.8 11.1±0.7 10.6±1.0 10.4±1.2 10.1±1.9 10.2±2.1 9.9±1.9 10.3±2.0 11.1±2.1 12.5±1.1

RCP8.5 - end 11.6±0.6 11.8±0.7 11.6±0.7 11.2±0.8 10.8±0.8 10.6±1.1 10.3±1.6 9.6±2.0 9.2±1.9 10.1±2.1 10.8±1.3 11.7±0.9

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 242±16 243±14 246±17 250±25 256±45 263±53 278±56 296±58 308±65 302±70 262±58 246±31

RCP4.5 - mid 244±16 244±15 244±14 250±22 253±36 261±49 273±51 295±56 302±61 305±67 267±62 250±32

RCP8.5 - mid 244±16 243±14 245±15 249±23 253±37 261±50 277±51 296±57 308±62 305±70 266±64 249±31

RCP4.5 - end 245±16 245±14 246±15 250±22 253±38 260±51 273±52 297±58 307±63 310±73 270±62 250±31

RCP8.5 - end 246±15 246±13 246±13 249±19 252±29 258±45 270±51 289±55 303±61 301±67 266±54 251±28

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 235±11 236±9 238±15 239±20 243±31 244±43 262±77 349±99 21±100 335±89 246±47 235±24

RCP4.5 - mid 237±10 239±17 236±9 240±13 238±23 243±45 256±64 325±82 317±87 359±86 239±48 236±15

RCP8.5 - mid 236±9 236±10 236±9 239±30 238±19 244±42 284±74 337±98 28±78 14±91 238±69 234±14

RCP4.5 - end 235±14 238±9 238±16 236±14 237±23 245±39 269±64 346±96 19±78 27±83 246±75 234±28

RCP8.5 - end 239±10 239±11 238±10 238±19 238±15 241±35 251±77 321±90 356±113 5±101 249±50 236±14
300

Appendix B24. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Majuro location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 15.90 17.74 21.17 15.48 16.59 18.40 15.75 17.26 19.96 16.11 18.06 21.61 15.08 16.46 19.06

5-year 16.96 20.41 27.93 15.93 17.54 20.41 16.51 19.07 24.26 16.84 19.90 26.23 15.63 17.89 22.81

10-year 17.79 22.95 35.70 16.18 18.17 21.96 17.05 20.59 28.55 17.31 21.29 30.41 15.99 19.05 26.46

20-year 18.66 26.06 46.88 16.39 18.73 23.54 17.56 22.26 33.97 17.70 22.68 35.30 16.32 20.27 31.01

50-year 19.86 31.26 69.54 16.59 19.39 25.66 18.20 24.71 43.44 18.14 24.52 43.03 16.70 21.99 38.77

100-year 20.81 36.23 95.58 16.71 19.83 27.30 18.65 26.77 52.86 18.41 25.90 50.03 16.96 23.38 46.34
301

Appendix B25. Table showing Enewetak monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 9.4±1.8 9.1±1.9 9.0±1.8 8.5±2.0 7.1±2.5 6.0±2.8 5.4±2.9 5.2±2.9 5.0±2.6 5.7±3.0 8.0±2.8 9.4±2.1

RCP4.5 - mid 9.4±1.9 9.0±1.9 9.0±1.8 8.5±2.0 7.3±2.3 6.3±2.8 5.5±3.0 5.0±2.8 4.9±2.7 5.3±2.9 7.5±2.9 9.2±2.0

RCP8.5 - mid 9.3±1.9 9.2±1.9 8.9±1.8 8.5±1.9 7.4±2.3 6.4±2.7 5.6±2.9 5.1±2.9 4.8±2.7 5.2±2.7 7.3±3.0 9.2±2.1

RCP4.5 - end 9.2±1.8 9.1±1.8 9.1±1.8 8.4±2.0 7.4±2.3 6.4±2.8 5.7±3.0 5.5±3.0 4.9±2.8 5.3±2.7 7.3±2.9 9.2±2.0

RCP8.5 - end 9.0±1.9 8.8±1.9 8.7±1.7 8.4±1.7 7.6±2.2 6.5±2.7 5.7±3.0 5.2±3.1 4.7±2.7 4.9±2.6 7.0±2.9 9.0±1.9

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.8±0.7 12.7±0.7 12.6±1.0 12.3±1.4 11.6±1.4 11.1±1.3 11.4±1.7 12.4±2.5 11.8±2.3 12.7±1.8 13.4±1.5 13.3±1.0

RCP4.5 - mid 12.7±0.6 12.6±0.7 12.2±0.5 12.2±1.1 11.0±0.6 11.2±1.5 12.2±2.0 12.0±2.2 11.9±2.3 12.6±2.4 13.3±1.8 13.2±1.1

RCP8.5 - mid 12.6±0.6 12.9±0.7 12.4±0.7 12.1±1.5 11.5±1.2 11.2±1.1 11.8±1.8 12.2±2.7 12.0±2.3 12.1±2.1 13.2±1.4 13.1±0.9

RCP4.5 - end 12.5±0.5 12.5±0.7 12.6±0.7 11.9±1.2 11.0±0.6 11.3±1.6 11.9±2.3 13.2±2.3 12.6±2.6 12.1±2.1 12.9±1.7 13.1±1.3

RCP8.5 - end 12.4±0.6 12.3±0.7 12.3±1.1 11.4±0.5 11.1±1.2 11.0±1.3 12.2±2.3 13.2±2.9 11.7±2.6 11.8±2.7 13.0±2.1 12.5±0.8

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 246±12 246±14 248±13 250±16 254±29 259±48 268±71 294±99 294±111 263±78 252±34 248±15

RCP4.5 - mid 248±13 247±13 248±12 251±15 254±24 258±43 270±67 286±94 301±102 271±89 254±40 250±15

RCP8.5 - mid 247±11 246±12 248±11 250±16 254±22 258±38 268±67 293±97 312±109 271±89 253±39 249±15

RCP4.5 - end 247±12 246±13 248±11 252±15 253±23 258±38 267±64 290±95 307±105 274±92 253±41 250±15

RCP8.5 - end 248±13 248±13 249±10 251±11 255±21 258±38 265±58 285±81 305±102 271±89 254±39 250±14

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 244±9 243±9 242±11 244±16 254±24 260±39 273±60 9±91 11±95 265±62 250±30 244±12

RCP4.5 - mid 245±8 243±10 244±7 246±17 250±14 252±27 311±83 322±84 336±79 321±84 249±28 246±14

RCP8.5 - mid 245±8 243±9 245±9 243±23 250±22 255±32 288±78 351±100 36±75 288±85 247±32 246±13

RCP4.5 - end 245±8 243±10 244±8 250±16 251±17 259±27 300±73 33±69 16±76 308±101 246±31 245±16

RCP8.5 - end 245±14 244±14 246±12 249±7 252±16 256±32 289±70 9±75 11±70 273±81 250±25 246±9
302

Appendix B26. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Enewetak location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 18.19 19.96 22.81 18.27 20.17 23.31 17.46 19.63 23.74 18.26 20.28 23.64 18.51 21.32 26.33

5-year 18.95 21.57 26.18 18.87 21.50 26.22 18.23 21.69 29.26 19.05 22.01 27.45 19.25 23.16 31.01

10-year 19.40 22.65 28.82 19.19 22.30 28.28 18.73 23.30 34.47 19.51 23.19 30.46 19.63 24.32 34.53

20-year 19.76 23.64 31.55 19.42 22.97 30.24 19.16 24.95 40.78 19.88 24.26 33.59 19.90 25.30 38.04

50-year 20.12 24.80 35.27 19.63 23.68 32.66 19.64 27.18 51.22 20.25 25.54 37.92 20.15 26.38 42.65

100-year 20.33 25.59 38.19 19.73 24.12 34.38 19.95 28.92 61.06 20.47 26.40 41.35 20.28 27.05 46.13
303

Appendix B27. Table showing Bikini monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 9.4±1.9 9.1±1.9 9.0±1.9 8.5±2.1 7.2±2.5 6.2±2.8 5.5±2.9 5.2±2.9 4.9±2.6 5.7±3 8.0±2.9 9.4±2.1

RCP4.5 - mid 9.4±1.9 9.1±1.9 9.1±1.8 8.6±2.0 7.5±2.3 6.4±2.8 5.6±3.0 5.1±2.8 4.8±2.6 5.3±2.8 7.5±2.9 9.2±2.1

RCP8.5 - mid 9.2±1.9 9.2±2.0 9.0±1.8 8.6±1.9 7.5±2.3 6.6±2.8 5.7±2.9 5.1±2.9 4.8±2.6 5.3±2.7 7.3±3.0 9.2±2.1

RCP4.5 - end 9.2±1.8 9.1±1.8 9.1±1.8 8.4±2.0 7.5±2.3 6.6±2.7 5.7±2.9 5.5±3.0 4.9±2.7 5.3±2.7 7.3±3.0 9.2±2.1

RCP8.5 - end 8.9±1.9 8.8±1.9 8.8±1.7 8.5±1.7 7.7±2.1 6.7±2.6 5.9±2.9 5.3±3.1 4.6±2.6 4.9±2.6 7.0±3.0 9.0±1.9

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.9±0.7 12.8±0.7 12.7±1.2 12.5±1.9 11.4±0.8 11.1±1.1 11.1±1.5 12.0±2.4 11.3±2.1 12.7±1.8 13.5±1.5 13.4±1.1

RCP4.5 - mid 12.7±0.5 12.8±1.0 12.3±0.7 12.3±1.1 11.2±0.8 11.3±1.4 11.7±1.8 12.0±2.1 11.3±2.2 12.5±2.3 13.2±1.5 13.2±0.9

RCP8.5 - mid 12.7±0.6 12.9±0.7 12.4±0.6 12.4±1.9 11.4±1.6 11.4±1.2 11.7±1.5 12.1±2.7 11.7±2.2 11.8±2.0 13.3±1.5 12.9±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 12.6±0.6 12.6±0.7 12.7±0.7 11.9±0.6 11.2±0.9 11.2±1.5 11.8±2.0 13.0±2.3 12.5±2.5 12.0±2.0 13.2±1.6 13.1±1.0

RCP8.5 - end 12.3±0.6 12.3±0.6 12.2±0.7 11.5±0.5 11.0±0.7 11.3±1.5 11.9±1.7 13.1±3.1 11.2±2.9 11.8±2.4 13.0±1.8 12.6±0.8

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 246±12 246±13 248±12 250±15 254±28 258±47 265±67 286±94 287±108 262±75 251±34 247±15

RCP4.5 - mid 247±13 246±13 247±12 250±15 253±23 257±41 267±61 280±86 291±98 269±86 252±38 249±15

RCP8.5 - mid 246±11 246±12 248±11 250±15 253±21 257±37 266±62 287±90 299±106 268±86 252±39 248±15

RCP4.5 - end 246±11 246±12 248±11 251±15 253±23 257±37 264±60 282±89 297±101 270±91 252±43 249±15

RCP8.5 - end 248±13 248±13 249±10 251±11 254±20 257±36 263±52 280±74 293±98 269±86 253±39 249±14

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 244±8 244±8 244±9 247±23 250±17 256±29 265±55 339±89 340±100 265±59 249±28 243±12

RCP4.5 - mid 245±7 243±10 244±7 248±13 249±11 252±26 282±65 312±77 324±77 295±74 247±25 246±11

RCP8.5 - mid 245±8 244±8 245±8 248±27 250±17 254±29 270±51 334±87 17±92 275±74 246±25 245±10

RCP4.5 - end 245±8 245±9 244±11 248±10 249±18 254±24 279±62 26±76 2±81 286±92 246±31 244±16

RCP8.5 - end 244±8 244±8 246±8 247±7 251±17 256±29 278±70 348±75 358±87 272±67 247±23 245±9
304

Appendix B28. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Bikini location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 17.81 19.69 22.82 17.76 19.39 21.89 17.66 19.86 23.85 17.72 19.62 22.93 17.81 20.54 25.90

5-year 18.86 21.95 27.70 18.30 20.46 24.01 18.65 22.29 29.79 18.29 20.98 26.23 18.68 23.00 32.82

10-year 19.57 23.75 32.26 18.57 21.06 25.37 19.33 24.26 35.55 18.60 21.86 28.75 19.22 24.88 39.34

20-year 20.23 25.65 37.71 18.76 21.53 26.56 19.95 26.36 42.67 18.83 22.63 31.30 19.68 26.78 47.21

50-year 21.02 28.30 46.61 18.92 21.99 27.90 20.69 29.34 54.75 19.04 23.49 34.72 20.18 29.32 60.20

100-year 21.57 30.42 54.90 19.00 22.26 28.76 21.19 31.77 66.44 19.16 24.04 37.34 20.49 31.27 72.43
305

Appendix B29. Table showing Molokai monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 6.8±3.0 6.7±3.1 7.3±3.1 7.8±2.7 7.9±2.3 8.5±1.9 8.3±1.8 8.1±2.1 7.7±2.4 7.9±2.8 7.8±3.0 7.1±3.1

RCP4.5 - mid 6.7±3.1 6.9±3.1 7.4±3.1 8.2±2.8 7.7±2.3 8.2±1.9 8.5±1.7 8.0±1.9 7.6±2.3 7.9±2.7 8.0±3.0 7.1±3.1

RCP8.5 - mid 6.7±3.2 6.8±3.1 7.3±3.1 7.9±2.6 7.6±2.2 8.0±2.0 8.2±1.7 8.0±2.0 7.5±2.4 7.8±2.8 7.9±2.9 7.3±3.0

RCP4.5 - end 6.3±3.0 6.7±3.1 7.4±3.0 7.8±2.6 7.8±2.2 8.3±1.9 8.3±1.8 8.0±2.0 7.6±2.4 7.8±2.6 7.9±2.9 7.3±3.1

RCP8.5 - end 6.3±3.0 6.4±3.1 7.2±2.9 7.9±2.6 7.4±2.2 7.9±1.8 8.3±1.7 7.8±1.9 7.4±2.1 7.8±2.5 8.0±2.7 6.9±3.1

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.1±1.2 13.2±1.1 13.6±1.1 13.1±1.0 12.4±0.7 12.4±1.0 12.0±0.9 12.3±1.4 12.3±1.0 13.5±1.5 13.7±1.1 13.4±1.1

RCP4.5 - mid 13.2±1.2 13.4±1.1 13.0±0.9 13.3±0.9 12.6±1.1 11.8±0.6 12.1±1.1 11.8±0.8 12.5±1.1 13.6±1.6 13.7±1.2 13.4±1.1

RCP8.5 - mid 13.6±1.1 13.3±1.2 13.6±1.1 13.0±1.0 12.0±0.7 11.9±0.7 11.8±1.0 12.1±0.8 12.1±0.9 13.7±1.4 13.3±0.8 13.5±1.0

RCP4.5 - end 12.5±1.0 13.3±1.1 13.1±0.7 12.9±0.9 12.2±0.7 11.8±0.8 12.1±1.2 12.6±1.5 12.7±1.4 13.2±1.6 13.2±0.9 13.4±1.3

RCP8.5 - end 13.0±1.3 13.3±1.2 12.9±0.8 12.6±0.7 11.7±0.7 11.5±0.7 12.3±1.7 12.0±1.7 11.7±1.5 12.8±1.4 13.6±1.3 13.4±1.1

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 255±76 247±79 251±51 254±34 256±25 259±15 258±16 259±22 260±28 258±32 255±40 258±57

RCP4.5 - mid 254±75 253±69 253±52 253±32 257±23 259±16 257±13 258±21 260±26 257±33 255±36 255±53

RCP8.5 - mid 253±72 249±73 251±53 252±30 257±23 259±15 258±16 259±23 260±27 256±35 252±37 256±54

RCP4.5 - end 260±77 249±73 252±50 253±33 257±21 259±14 258±17 259±23 259±30 257±32 253±37 256±49

RCP8.5 - end 258±69 250±77 252±50 253±31 258±23 259±13 258±14 258±20 259±27 256±30 255±33 258±52

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 244±73 244±59 249±25 251±17 254±14 258±13 257±14 263±26 261±22 255±27 250±24 251±38

RCP4.5 - mid 244±73 249±42 247±21 249±19 255±14 257±11 258±18 258±25 258±19 256±32 250±22 246±42

RCP8.5 - mid 246±52 240±47 248±27 250±13 253±9 255±8 258±20 260±34 261±29 254±31 245±16 248±40

RCP4.5 - end 256±67 238±56 247±25 250±18 254±10 257±13 256±19 262±35 262±37 252±33 248±24 251±30

RCP8.5 - end 248±39 244±47 249±24 251±11 258±12 257±9 260±20 255±21 267±34 257±32 250±18 252±27
306

Appendix B30. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Molokai location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 17.66 18.80 20.56 17.57 18.87 21.03 16.89 18.04 20.24 17.01 18.48 21.21 17.30 18.64 20.87

5-year 18.41 20.25 23.36 18.26 20.35 24.16 17.25 19.01 22.86 17.49 19.75 24.57 17.83 19.80 23.40

10-year 18.92 21.37 25.84 18.73 21.49 26.97 17.46 19.72 25.19 17.79 20.68 27.56 18.14 20.59 25.39

20-year 19.39 22.53 28.66 19.15 22.66 30.21 17.63 20.40 27.88 18.03 21.59 31.00 18.39 21.31 27.45

50-year 19.96 24.10 33.03 19.65 24.25 35.29 17.82 21.27 32.05 18.29 22.76 36.37 18.65 22.16 30.29

100-year 20.35 25.32 36.88 19.99 25.49 39.84 17.93 21.90 35.76 18.44 23.63 41.15 18.80 22.74 32.53
307

Appendix B31. Table showing Northwest Hawaiian Islands monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent 

for wind speed and mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 7.7±3.7 7.5±3.5 6.9±3.0 7.1±2.8 6.7±2.3 7.0±2.2 7.6±2.2 7.3±2.4 7.3±2.7 7.7±3.1 7.4±3.2 7.4±3.5

RCP4.5 - mid 7.6±3.6 7.3±3.3 7.1±3.1 7.2±2.8 6.5±2.4 6.8±2.2 7.7±2.0 7.3±2.3 7.1±2.7 7.7±3.0 7.2±3.1 7.1±3.4

RCP8.5 - mid 7.6±3.6 7.5±3.3 6.9±3.1 6.7±2.6 6.4±2.4 6.5±2.2 7.5±2.1 7.3±2.4 6.9±2.7 8.0±3.0 7.5±3.2 7.1±3.4

RCP4.5 - end 7.5±3.5 7.4±3.4 7.1±3.0 7.0±2.8 6.7±2.4 6.7±2.2 7.4±2.0 7.2±2.4 7.1±2.4 7.7±2.9 7.3±3.1 7.1±3.3

RCP8.5 - end 7.2±3.4 7.2±3.2 6.9±2.9 6.9±2.6 6.4±2.3 6.6±2.0 7.3±1.8 6.9±2.1 7.0±2.4 7.7±2.7 7.1±3.0 6.8±3.3

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 16.4±1.9 15.3±1.5 13.4±1.2 12.8±1.2 11.3±1.0 10.9±1.0 11.9±1.4 12.3±2.0 13.4±1.6 14.3±1.6 14.1±1.3 15.3±1.7

RCP4.5 - mid 16.1±1.7 14.7±1.6 13.8±1.4 12.8±1.2 11.1±1.0 10.7±1.0 11.7±1.5 12.7±2.2 13.0±2.1 14.3±2.0 14.2±1.6 15.0±1.6

RCP8.5 - mid 15.7±1.8 14.8±1.5 13.6±1.4 12.1±1.0 11.3±1.2 10.4±0.5 11.6±1.6 12.4±2.0 13.0±2.2 14.2±1.6 14.2±1.3 14.9±1.6

RCP4.5 - end 15.4±1.6 15.3±1.6 13.9±1.4 12.9±1.1 11.2±0.9 10.6±0.8 11.2±1.2 12.5±2.5 12.5±2.0 14.2±1.7 13.8±1.2 14.7±1.8

RCP8.5 - end 15.1±1.8 14.6±1.6 12.9±1.4 12.2±1.0 10.9±0.9 10.3±1.0 10.6±0.9 11.4±2.2 12.5±1.8 13.6±1.7 13.8±1.3 14.3±1.5

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 117±113 119±118 242±87 248±49 254±36 262±27 262±25 265±31 263±40 253±46 244±68 207±114

RCP4.5 - mid 115±112 137±134 238±87 251±47 254±42 261±31 263±24 266±29 261±36 253±39 251±64 217±117

RCP8.5 - mid 118±130 145±128 242±87 251±49 254±39 261±30 262±25 266±32 262±40 252±40 245±59 222±107

RCP4.5 - end 108±108 132±130 238±84 249±48 254±37 261±31 262±23 265±29 261±35 255±38 249±59 228±105

RCP8.5 - end 111±121 122±118 244±81 252±44 254±35 262±27 262±22 264±27 263±35 256±36 250±53 224±101

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 103±62 104±66 220±76 237±39 247±20 259±19 265±25 269±39 266±36 244±34 227±55 144±90

RCP4.5 - mid 108±65 108±76 216±71 246±24 246±24 256±24 265±33 273±36 259±42 243±37 240±55 134±90

RCP8.5 - mid 106±76 119±78 216±75 244±31 245±24 257±15 262±30 273±44 256±35 240±29 234±43 126±91

RCP4.5 - end 103±61 114±66 205±81 239±31 249±21 255±14 262±29 277±46 263±40 249±30 240±49 167±99

RCP8.5 - end 94±57 106±67 219±68 246±26 246±21 256±19 258±23 272±47 264±39 253±32 236±35 207±87
308

Appendix B32. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Northwest Hawaiian 

Islands location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 21.36 22.74 24.76 20.60 22.14 24.67 20.61 22.20 24.88 20.28 21.94 24.79 19.73 21.34 24.04

5-year 22.20 24.24 27.46 21.00 23.03 26.68 21.11 23.35 27.51 20.85 23.26 27.89 20.42 22.86 27.40

10-year 22.71 25.27 29.52 21.19 23.54 27.99 21.38 24.07 29.45 21.17 24.15 30.36 20.84 23.95 30.22

20-year 23.14 26.21 31.60 21.32 23.92 29.16 21.58 24.69 31.35 21.42 24.96 32.94 21.20 25.00 33.29

50-year 23.60 27.34 34.38 21.43 24.30 30.50 21.77 25.37 33.82 21.68 25.91 36.52 21.58 26.31 37.78

100-year 23.88 28.12 36.51 21.48 24.51 31.38 21.87 25.80 35.65 21.82 26.55 39.36 21.82 27.25 41.53
309

Appendix B33. Table showing Guam monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 9.1±2.1 9.0±2.1 8.8±2.0 8.0±2.0 6.8±2.4 5.7±2.7 5.5±3.2 5.6±3.2 5.3±2.9 5.6±2.9 7.8±2.8 8.9±2.3

RCP4.5 - mid 9.0±2.2 8.9±2.1 8.8±2.0 8.0±1.8 6.6±2.3 6.1±2.7 5.5±3.2 5.5±3.0 5.3±2.8 5.2±2.6 7.1±2.8 8.6±2.4

RCP8.5 - mid 9.0±2.2 8.9±2.1 8.7±1.9 8.0±1.7 6.6±2.2 6.0±2.7 5.6±3.2 5.6±3.3 5.3±2.9 5.1±2.6 6.9±2.8 8.8±2.4

RCP4.5 - end 9.0±2.1 9.1±2.0 8.7±2.0 7.9±1.9 6.9±2.2 6.0±2.6 5.8±3.1 5.7±3.2 5.4±2.8 5.3±2.6 7.1±2.7 8.6±2.3

RCP8.5 - end 8.8±2.2 8.6±2.2 8.4±1.9 7.8±1.6 6.8±2.2 6.0±2.7 5.8±3.2 5.6±3.3 5.3±2.9 5.1±2.6 6.9±2.9 8.4±2.4

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.2±0.8 13.3±1.0 13.2±1.9 11.9±1.6 11.8±2.5 11.7±1.9 13.9±2.3 14.5±2.4 13.2±2.8 12.8±2.6 13.9±2.0 13.4±1.5

RCP4.5 - mid 13.1±0.9 13.2±1.1 13.0±1.8 11.7±1.7 11.0±1.4 12.1±2.2 13.8±2.4 13.4±2.2 12.9±2.5 11.5±2.3 12.9±2.4 13.6±1.7

RCP8.5 - mid 13.4±1.2 12.9±0.7 12.9±1.2 11.5±1.1 10.8±1.7 12.6±2.9 13.8±2.3 14.4±2.3 13.3±2.9 11.8±2.6 12.9±2.1 13.7±1.7

RCP4.5 - end 13.1±0.8 13.1±0.9 12.7±0.9 11.8±1.4 11.0±1.3 11.3±1.7 13.5±2.6 14.2±2.3 12.6±1.9 11.8±2.5 12.6±1.6 13.1±1.5

RCP8.5 - end 13.3±1.3 13.0±0.9 12.2±0.8 11.0±0.8 10.7±1.0 11.8±2.4 13.3±2.4 14.5±2.5 13.3±2.4 11.5±2.1 13.2±2.5 13.5±2.5

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 249±18 246±18 249±18 253±21 260±33 266±58 301±100 12±103 355±117 267±85 259±39 253±23

RCP4.5 - mid 249±20 247±18 250±17 253±15 260±31 269±56 299±90 13±107 20±111 278±102 259±43 255±24

RCP8.5 - mid 249±18 248±17 249±16 254±16 260±29 270±54 301±95 16±103 33±107 274±102 259±43 255±24

RCP4.5 - end 250±18 246±17 249±16 254±18 261±29 267±55 295±93 3±105 13±110 279±102 258±40 255±21

RCP8.5 - end 250±19 248±18 250±15 254±13 260±28 269±59 289±86 357±105 26±105 277±98 258±41 256±22

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 241±15 236±14 244±28 248±26 263±44 290±76 24±67 26±47 14±65 302±91 263±52 248±23

RCP4.5 - mid 242±16 240±11 243±21 247±21 255±31 296±71 16±57 35±49 41±56 303±94 264±49 246±32

RCP8.5 - mid 243±15 242±11 241±19 251±15 259±19 322±81 27±52 29±37 42±35 318±104 259±51 250±30

RCP4.5 - end 242±14 238±17 242±11 251±22 263±26 284±68 29±65 36±36 40±49 333±94 257±43 245±27

RCP8.5 - end 245±18 239±14 240±12 250±16 256±21 291±83 24±59 36±42 39±49 328±103 256±39 251±27
310

Appendix B34. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Guam location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 20.45 22.85 26.86 19.96 22.16 25.73 19.81 22.05 26.02 19.00 20.97 24.13 20.16 22.60 26.68

5-year 21.71 25.61 32.92 20.90 24.12 29.82 20.81 24.43 31.69 19.94 22.88 28.03 21.09 24.66 31.27

10-year 22.56 27.78 38.48 21.45 25.45 33.02 21.48 26.31 36.98 20.51 24.22 31.15 21.63 26.05 34.90

20-year 23.33 30.03 45.05 21.89 26.65 36.29 22.08 28.26 43.32 20.99 25.47 34.43 22.06 27.33 38.68

50-year 24.23 33.12 55.61 22.35 28.08 40.75 22.78 30.95 53.68 21.50 27.01 39.02 22.49 28.84 43.92

100-year 24.84 35.54 65.29 22.62 29.05 44.23 23.25 33.08 63.35 21.82 28.08 42.70 22.75 29.86 48.07
311

Appendix B35. Table showing Kwajalein monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 9.3±1.8 9.1±1.8 8.8±1.9 7.7±2.4 6.1±2.7 5.3±2.7 4.8±2.6 4.4±2.5 4.2±2.3 4.7±2.6 6.6±3.1 8.7±2.5

RCP4.5 - mid 9.3±1.9 9.0±1.9 8.9±1.8 7.8±2.2 6.4±2.7 5.6±2.7 4.9±2.7 4.4±2.6 4.2±2.3 4.5±2.4 5.9±3.0 8.5±2.5

RCP8.5 - mid 9.1±1.8 9.1±1.9 8.7±1.8 8.0±2.2 6.4±2.6 5.6±2.7 5.0±2.7 4.5±2.6 4.1±2.3 4.4±2.4 6.0±3.0 8.5±2.4

RCP4.5 - end 9.1±1.7 9.0±1.7 8.8±1.8 7.7±2.2 6.4±2.6 5.6±2.8 4.9±2.6 4.6±2.6 4.2±2.4 4.3±2.5 5.9±2.9 8.4±2.4

RCP8.5 - end 8.8±1.8 8.8±1.8 8.7±1.7 8.0±2.1 6.9±2.4 5.9±2.8 5.1±2.7 4.4±2.6 4.0±2.2 4.1±2.4 5.7±2.9 8.2±2.3

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.7±0.6 12.6±0.8 12.4±0.8 11.9±1.0 10.9±0.9 10.6±1.0 10.6±1.4 10.9±2.0 10.4±2.1 11.5±2.1 13.1±1.5 13.2±1.3

RCP4.5 - mid 12.6±0.5 12.7±1.2 12.1±0.5 11.7±0.7 11.1±1.0 11.0±1.3 11.0±1.4 11.4±2.2 10.6±2.1 11.0±2.3 12.5±1.4 13.1±1.2

RCP8.5 - mid 12.5±0.7 12.9±0.9 12.2±0.6 12.1±1.6 11.3±1.4 10.9±1.0 11.2±1.8 11.5±2.3 10.6±2.0 10.7±1.9 12.7±1.3 12.8±0.8

RCP4.5 - end 12.4±0.8 12.4±0.7 12.2±0.7 11.5±0.5 10.9±0.8 10.9±1.1 10.9±2.0 11.7±2.3 11.1±2.1 11.0±2.0 12.4±1.6 13.0±1.1

RCP8.5 - end 12.1±0.5 12.2±0.7 12.0±0.7 11.5±0.9 10.9±0.8 11.0±1.3 11.1±1.6 11.3±2.6 9.9±2.6 10.9±2.1 12.2±1.3 12.3±0.9

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 243±12 243±12 246±13 249±21 253±39 258±51 269±64 291±74 302±85 278±81 252±46 245±21

RCP4.5 - mid 244±13 244±13 245±11 249±19 252±31 258±49 268±58 288±73 301±79 289±83 255±52 248±23

RCP8.5 - mid 244±12 244±12 246±12 249±19 252±30 257±45 271±59 295±74 311±82 290±85 254±56 247±22

RCP4.5 - end 245±12 245±12 246±12 250±19 252±32 258±47 267±57 294±77 307±83 295±89 255±57 248±21

RCP8.5 - end 246±13 246±12 247±11 249±15 253±26 257±43 266±53 288±67 300±81 288±84 255±52 248±20

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 241±9 240±9 242±16 244±27 245±25 247±28 260±60 350±95 13±109 274±70 245±37 238±16

RCP4.5 - mid 240±9 242±13 240±8 243±15 244±15 248±35 258±56 325±89 325±92 318±94 240±36 241±12

RCP8.5 - mid 241±8 240±9 241±7 243±31 247±20 250±33 273±67 339±85 28±93 318±105 241±43 239±10

RCP4.5 - end 241±10 242±10 240±11 244±8 243±16 247±28 264±60 7±84 5±81 354±104 239±48 240±20

RCP8.5 - end 242±8 241±8 243±8 244±8 245±14 252±40 267±75 340±82 328±96 294±90 242±32 242±11
312

Appendix B36. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kwajalein location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 16.70 18.88 23.14 16.37 18.28 22.23 16.81 18.82 22.50 16.70 18.37 21.29 16.61 18.55 22.08

5-year 17.75 21.75 30.99 16.83 19.71 26.67 17.66 20.95 27.86 17.31 19.83 24.80 17.39 20.50 26.93

10-year 18.55 24.42 39.95 17.09 20.73 30.65 18.23 22.67 33.01 17.68 20.87 27.76 17.90 22.01 31.44

20-year 19.35 27.62 52.73 17.29 21.70 35.27 18.75 24.49 39.37 17.99 21.87 31.03 18.35 23.57 36.85

50-year 20.42 32.83 78.40 17.50 22.91 42.52 19.36 27.04 50.08 18.30 23.11 35.88 18.86 25.68 45.66

100-year 21.22 37.69 97.64 17.61 23.78 49.03 19.77 29.09 60.40 18.50 23.99 39.98 19.19 27.33 53.86
313

Appendix B37. Table showing Wake monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 7.3±2.8 7.2±2.8 7.7±2.6 8.3±2.3 8.0±1.9 7.6±2.1 7.2±2.4 6.8±2.7 6.7±2.8 7.8±2.9 8.6±2.6 8.2±2.8

RCP4.5 - mid 7.4±2.8 7.2±2.7 7.8±2.6 8.3±2.2 7.9±1.9 7.6±2.0 7.4±2.3 6.7±2.6 6.6±2.8 7.8±2.8 8.6±2.6 8.0±2.7

RCP8.5 - mid 7.3±2.8 7.4±2.9 7.7±2.6 8.2±2.3 8.0±1.9 7.7±2.0 7.4±2.5 6.7±2.8 6.6±2.9 7.5±2.8 8.8±2.5 8.0±2.8

RCP4.5 - end 7.1±2.7 7.2±2.7 7.8±2.7 8.2±2.3 7.9±1.9 7.7±1.8 7.4±2.4 6.9±2.6 6.7±2.8 7.5±2.8 8.6±2.5 8.1±2.6

RCP8.5 - end 7.2±2.8 7.0±2.8 7.5±2.5 8.2±2.0 7.8±1.8 7.5±1.8 7.5±2.2 7.2±2.5 6.6±2.6 7.5±2.7 8.6±2.4 8.0±2.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 12.9±1.2 12.7±0.8 12.9±1.0 12.9±1.3 11.6±0.9 11.8±1.3 12.0±1.7 12.8±1.8 13.0±2.1 14.1±2.1 13.9±1.4 13.5±0.9

RCP4.5 - mid 12.7±0.8 12.6±0.8 13.0±0.9 12.5±0.8 11.5±0.7 11.5±1.6 12.2±1.7 12.3±1.8 13.0±2.2 14.1±2.1 13.8±1.4 13.2±0.9

RCP8.5 - mid 12.8±0.8 13.0±0.8 12.7±0.9 12.7±1.7 11.6±1.2 11.3±0.9 12.5±1.9 13.5±2.6 13.6±2.8 13.3±1.5 14.0±1.3 13.2±1.0

RCP4.5 - end 12.5±0.9 12.6±0.9 12.7±0.7 12.4±0.9 11.3±0.8 11.2±1.4 12.3±2.1 12.8±2.2 13.2±2.4 13.4±1.8 13.6±1.2 12.9±0.8

RCP8.5 - end 12.6±0.8 12.7±0.9 12.3±0.8 11.9±0.6 11.1±0.6 11.1±1.4 11.8±1.8 13.5±2.7 12.7±2.6 13.4±2.3 13.4±1.2 12.8±0.6

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 249±39 249±43 252±32 254±21 257±17 261±24 265±36 270±48 262±48 258±35 254±24 251±29

RCP4.5 - mid 250±39 249±40 252±29 255±18 257±17 260±22 267±33 269±46 267±48 260±35 255±26 254±30

RCP8.5 - mid 249±40 248±41 252±29 255±20 257±15 260±21 268±35 273±50 267±50 260±36 256±22 253±30

RCP4.5 - end 250±40 249±38 253±30 256±20 257±15 261±17 266±34 270±47 266±48 259±39 255±24 253±25

RCP8.5 - end 250±39 250±41 254±28 256±16 259±15 262±20 266±32 270±40 269±46 260±37 255±21 253±25

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 246±16 245±20 244±15 246±11 255±16 264±24 268±44 300±66 271±51 259±38 250±23 245±13

RCP4.5 - mid 246±16 243±17 246±12 250±11 250±11 258±24 274±45 279±55 285±59 267±52 247±16 247±13

RCP8.5 - mid 247±14 246±15 245±13 247±15 253±10 260±18 283±55 311±78 291±71 259±42 251±17 245±13

RCP4.5 - end 247±14 248±17 247±12 253±15 253±9 262±19 281±47 314±84 282±61 257±35 250±22 249±11

RCP8.5 - end 245±16 247±15 249±11 250±10 252±8 259±22 277±48 329±80 304±73 263±39 248±18 247±10
314

Appendix B38. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Wake location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 18.43 20.05 22.61 17.80 19.47 22.40 17.75 20.52 26.74 17.85 19.85 23.45 17.78 20.34 25.35

5-year 19.41 22.01 26.53 18.44 20.99 26.00 18.60 23.42 36.73 18.40 21.25 27.02 18.63 22.70 32.02

10-year 20.07 23.52 30.00 18.83 22.08 29.09 19.19 26.00 48.10 18.70 22.16 29.79 19.16 24.55 38.41

20-year 20.67 25.06 33.95 19.15 23.14 32.52 19.73 28.97 64.32 18.92 22.95 32.63 19.62 26.44 46.25

50-year 21.37 27.13 40.07 19.50 24.47 37.66 20.39 33.58 96.82 19.13 23.85 36.50 20.12 29.01 59.41

100-year 21.85 28.73 45.46 19.71 25.44 42.06 20.85 37.67 133.79 19.24 24.43 39.51 20.44 31.02 72.01
315

Appendix B39. Table showing Johnston Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed 

and mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 7.6±2.9 7.5±2.9 8.3±2.7 8.7±2.3 8.4±1.9 8.3±1.9 7.8±2.1 7.2±2.2 6.5±2.5 7.5±2.9 8.5±2.7 8.1±2.9

RCP4.5 - mid 7.6±2.7 7.6±2.8 8.2±2.7 8.8±2.4 8.2±1.9 8.2±1.8 8.1±1.8 7.4±2.3 6.6±2.4 7.3±2.7 8.6±2.6 8.3±2.6

RCP8.5 - mid 7.6±2.9 7.6±2.9 8.1±2.8 8.8±2.1 8.2±1.9 8.2±1.7 8.1±1.9 7.2±2.2 6.3±2.5 7.2±2.8 8.5±2.6 8.3±2.8

RCP4.5 - end 7.3±2.7 7.5±2.9 8.3±2.6 8.7±2.1 8.3±1.8 8.3±1.7 8.0±1.9 7.4±2.2 6.6±2.4 7.2±2.8 8.5±2.7 8.3±2.6

RCP8.5 - end 7.2±2.8 7.2±2.8 8.1±2.5 8.6±2.0 8.0±1.7 8.2±1.5 8.1±1.7 7.4±1.9 6.5±2.2 7.1±2.6 8.1±2.5 8.0±2.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.3±0.9 13.3±0.9 13.4±0.8 12.9±0.8 12.0±1.0 11.8±1.2 11.9±1.4 11.8±1.6 11.8±1.5 13.5±1.6 13.8±1.2 13.6±1.0

RCP4.5 - mid 13.0±0.9 13.2±0.9 13.2±0.7 13.2±0.7 11.6±0.8 11.5±1.1 11.6±1.0 12.6±2.0 11.7±1.7 13.2±1.7 13.6±1.3 13.5±1.0

RCP8.5 - mid 13.5±1.0 13.5±0.9 13.4±0.8 12.5±0.7 11.5±0.7 11.4±1.2 11.8±1.3 11.7±1.8 11.7±2.0 13.2±1.5 13.5±1.0 13.6±1.0

RCP4.5 - end 12.8±0.8 13.4±1.0 13.2±0.9 12.5±0.6 11.7±1.0 11.4±0.9 11.6±1.4 12.3±2.0 11.7±1.8 13.4±2.0 13.8±1.1 13.2±0.7

RCP8.5 - end 12.7±0.8 13.1±1.1 12.8±0.7 12.3±0.5 11.2±0.8 11.2±1.4 11.4±1.2 11.2±1.1 11.2±1.8 12.7±2.1 13.0±1.1 13.0±0.9

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 246±41 246±41 249±27 251±21 254±17 259±17 261±25 262±33 263±43 256±40 251±29 249±35

RCP4.5 - mid 245±40 248±36 249±29 252±21 255±18 258±17 260±21 264±31 264±43 257±38 252±27 249±29

RCP8.5 - mid 247±38 246±36 248±29 251±19 255±18 258±13 260±21 264±33 263±44 256±39 250±28 248±35

RCP4.5 - end 246±41 246±39 248±27 251±19 255±16 258±14 260±22 262±32 262±38 258±43 251±28 249±29

RCP8.5 - end 249±36 248±36 249±25 251±17 256±15 259±15 259±19 260±29 263±37 257±36 252±28 250±27

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 241±24 240±19 242±12 245±10 249±10 257±13 259±23 267±40 263±44 252±33 245±21 243±22

RCP4.5 - mid 239±26 244±15 245±11 247±9 249±12 256±19 259±27 282±47 274±52 259±44 249±21 241±19

RCP8.5 - mid 240±18 242±14 242±11 245±9 249±12 255±9 261±25 272±42 282±63 257±35 245±20 243±15

RCP4.5 - end 240±23 241±15 242±11 246±9 251±13 256±13 257±15 275±53 268±48 259±48 246±18 242±16

RCP8.5 - end 240±18 240±16 244±10 247±10 250±9 257±12 258±20 262±36 269±50 256±34 244±21 244±19
316

Appendix B40. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Johnston Atoll location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 17.02 18.20 20.17 16.95 18.47 21.45 16.98 18.16 20.13 16.73 18.60 22.47 16.53 18.00 20.75

5-year 17.60 19.48 23.02 17.52 20.04 25.82 17.41 19.12 22.24 17.44 20.72 28.90 17.19 19.69 25.10

10-year 17.99 20.47 25.59 17.90 21.34 30.22 17.66 19.75 23.86 17.95 22.63 36.10 17.66 21.13 29.54

20-year 18.32 21.47 28.58 18.24 22.73 35.86 17.85 20.31 25.50 18.43 24.83 46.18 18.09 22.71 35.31

50-year 18.71 22.82 33.29 18.64 24.73 45.82 18.04 20.95 27.71 19.04 28.29 66.02 18.63 25.07 45.67

100-year 18.97 23.86 37.53 18.91 26.37 55.85 18.15 21.38 29.40 19.47 31.40 88.16 19.01 27.08 56.25
317

Appendix B41. Table showing Kingman Reef monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed 

and mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 6.9±2.6 7.2±2.4 7.1±2.5 6.4±2.4 5.5±2.3 5.0±2.1 4.8±1.8 4.7±1.7 4.5±1.8 4.3±1.9 4.4±2.2 5.7±2.4

RCP4.5 - mid 6.8±2.4 7.5±2.3 7.4±2.5 6.9±2.3 6.0±2.3 5.4±2.2 4.9±1.9 4.7±1.8 4.5±1.8 4.3±1.9 4.4±2.0 5.6±2.5

RCP8.5 - mid 7.0±2.4 7.3±2.4 7.2±2.4 6.9±2.3 6.1±2.3 5.4±2.1 4.9±1.7 4.6±1.7 4.5±1.7 4.3±1.9 4.4±2.0 5.5±2.4

RCP4.5 - end 6.8±2.4 7.3±2.3 7.3±2.3 6.8±2.3 6.2±2.3 5.4±2.1 4.8±1.7 4.6±1.8 4.5±1.8 4.3±1.9 4.3±2.1 5.7±2.6

RCP8.5 - end 7.0±2.3 7.6±2.1 7.4±2.2 7.2±2.2 6.7±2.1 5.7±2.2 4.9±1.8 4.8±1.8 4.4±1.7 4.1±1.8 4.1±1.9 5.6±2.3

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 11.8±1.0 11.7±0.7 11.7±0.7 11.0±0.6 10.4±0.7 9.9±1.0 8.8±1.0 8.8±1.4 8.5±1.1 8.6±1.3 10.0±1.9 11.0±1.2

RCP4.5 - mid 11.5±0.9 11.6±0.6 12.1±0.7 11.3±0.6 10.5±1.1 10.4±0.9 9.2±1.0 8.9±1.5 8.3±1.0 8.5±1.0 9.2±1.2 11.0±1.0

RCP8.5 - mid 11.7±1.1 11.9±0.8 11.9±0.7 11.3±0.6 10.7±0.9 9.9±0.7 8.9±0.9 8.4±0.9 8.3±1.1 8.6±1.3 9.4±1.2 10.8±0.9

RCP4.5 - end 11.5±0.8 11.8±0.6 11.5±0.6 11.3±0.8 11.0±0.9 10.3±1.0 9.0±1.3 9.1±1.6 8.6±1.2 8.9±1.5 9.6±1.8 11.4±1.0

RCP8.5 - end 11.3±0.6 11.5±0.7 11.7±0.6 11.3±0.7 10.8±0.7 10.5±0.9 9.1±1.2 8.9±1.3 8.3±1.2 8.4±1.2 8.9±1.3 10.8±1.0

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 251±30 249±26 251±25 254±29 261±33 273±41 291±41 307±39 317±41 319±48 297±57 264±42

RCP4.5 - mid 251±28 248±22 249±22 251±23 256±30 266±35 287±39 305±39 314±42 318±49 298±59 263±42

RCP8.5 - mid 250±28 249±24 249±21 251±22 257±27 265±34 286±37 307±39 316±42 320±49 297±57 263±42

RCP4.5 - end 251±28 249±26 250±21 252±21 256±26 266±35 287±39 308±42 315±43 318±50 295±58 261±42

RCP8.5 - end 251±25 249±18 249±18 250±18 254±23 261±31 282±37 301±41 315±43 317±49 289±54 260±38

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 237±12 234±14 234±10 237±13 244±21 254±44 283±48 317±47 324±44 321±44 270±58 240±25

RCP4.5 - mid 238±17 237±10 233±10 237±10 237±28 244±29 272±49 313±47 317±42 329±48 271±57 238±24

RCP8.5 - mid 234±14 233±10 235±9 237±10 241±18 246±21 271±47 309±41 322±49 322±54 255±54 234±18

RCP4.5 - end 233±13 234±12 235±11 237±10 239±20 245±28 278±53 326±58 324±52 335±68 247±57 233±25

RCP8.5 - end 239±12 238±11 234±10 236±11 239±13 240±26 266±51 321±57 324±51 333±70 258±48 237±15
318

Appendix B42. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Kingman Reef location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 14.32 15.32 16.96 13.94 14.87 16.55 13.89 14.76 16.28 14.09 15.28 17.65 13.62 14.11 14.87

5-year 15.03 16.80 20.04 14.41 16.02 19.38 14.32 15.75 18.59 14.62 16.76 21.81 13.87 14.59 15.84

10-year 15.57 18.10 23.18 14.75 17.02 22.31 14.61 16.55 20.80 15.01 18.12 26.47 14.02 14.94 16.62

20-year 16.12 19.59 27.24 15.09 18.15 26.14 14.88 17.41 23.50 15.40 19.72 33.04 14.15 15.26 17.44

50-year 16.85 21.89 34.48 15.51 19.87 33.12 15.21 18.62 28.02 15.91 22.28 46.03 14.28 15.66 18.59

100-year 17.41 23.91 41.84 15.82 21.37 40.34 15.43 19.61 32.35 16.29 24.63 60.60 14.37 15.94 19.51
319

Appendix B43. Table showing Palmyra monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 6.4±2.4 6.7±2.3 6.8±2.4 6.1±2.3 5.5±2.1 5.3±2.0 5.3±1.8 5.2±1.7 5.0±1.7 4.7±1.8 4.6±2.1 5.3±2.2

RCP4.5 - mid 6.2±2.3 6.9±2.3 7.1±2.4 6.6±2.3 5.9±2.2 5.5±2.0 5.5±1.8 5.3±1.8 5.1±1.8 4.8±1.8 4.6±2.0 5.2±2.3

RCP8.5 - mid 6.4±2.3 6.9±2.4 6.9±2.4 6.6±2.3 5.9±2.2 5.6±1.9 5.5±1.7 5.2±1.8 5.1±1.8 4.7±1.8 4.6±2.0 5.2±2.3

RCP4.5 - end 6.4±2.3 6.8±2.3 7.0±2.2 6.6±2.2 6.1±2.1 5.5±2.0 5.4±1.7 5.2±1.8 5.1±1.8 4.8±1.8 4.5±2.1 5.4±2.4

RCP8.5 - end 6.5±2.2 7.2±2.0 7.1±2.2 6.9±2.1 6.4±2.1 5.7±2.0 5.4±1.8 5.4±1.8 5.1±1.7 4.6±1.8 4.4±1.9 5.2±2.2

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 11.5±1.2 11.5±0.8 11.6±0.7 10.9±0.7 10.3±0.8 9.8±1.1 8.9±1.0 8.9±1.3 8.6±1.0 8.6±1.2 9.9±2.2 10.4±1.1

RCP4.5 - mid 11.2±0.9 11.4±0.6 11.9±0.6 11.2±0.7 10.6±1.2 10.3±1.0 9.2±1.0 9.0±1.5 8.6±0.9 8.5±1.0 9.1±1.3 10.6±1.1

RCP8.5 - mid 11.3±0.9 11.7±0.9 11.8±0.8 11.2±0.7 10.6±0.9 9.9±0.7 9.0±0.8 8.7±0.8 8.6±1.0 8.7±1.3 9.2±1.3 10.6±1.0

RCP4.5 - end 11.3±0.9 11.5±0.7 11.4±0.7 11.1±0.8 10.9±0.9 10.3±1.0 9.0±1.2 9.2±1.5 8.8±1.2 8.9±1.3 9.5±2.0 11.2±1.0

RCP8.5 - end 11.0±0.8 11.2±0.7 11.6±0.7 11.3±0.7 10.8±0.8 10.4±0.9 9.1±1.1 9.1±1.2 8.5±1.0 8.5±1.1 8.9±1.3 10.7±1.0

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 255±32 252±27 253±25 256±30 264±32 275±38 289±37 301±34 310±35 312±40 299±48 270±42

RCP4.5 - mid 256±31 252±24 251±22 253±23 258±30 269±32 287±35 300±34 307±38 310±41 297±49 270±43

RCP8.5 - mid 255±31 251±26 251±22 253±22 258±26 268±31 286±33 302±35 308±38 312±42 298±48 270±43

RCP4.5 - end 254±29 252±26 251±22 253±21 257±26 269±33 287±35 303±38 307±38 309±42 297±49 267±42

RCP8.5 - end 254±26 251±18 250±18 251±18 255±23 263±30 284±35 299±37 308±39 309±42 291±45 266±38

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 234±20 232±17 233±11 236±16 244±23 257±47 286±44 311±43 316±41 319±43 289±66 238±31

RCP4.5 - mid 234±18 234±10 232±10 235±9 235±29 244±31 276±47 310±44 307±38 321±47 274±55 236±25

RCP8.5 - mid 230±16 232±10 233±9 236±9 240±19 246±22 276±44 305±35 312±43 313±48 261±58 232±19

RCP4.5 - end 230±16 231±11 234±19 235±10 239±19 245±27 282±48 319±53 314±49 328±65 259±63 231±28

RCP8.5 - end 235±12 235±10 232±9 235±10 238±11 239±26 273±49 317±51 312±45 322±65 261±48 234±16
320

Appendix B44. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Palmyra location. 

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 14.40 15.43 17.07 13.95 14.98 16.91 13.84 14.78 16.45 14.07 15.21 17.39 13.63 14.09 14.79

5-year 15.17 16.96 20.11 14.48 16.32 20.30 14.22 15.68 18.60 14.61 16.64 21.14 13.88 14.57 15.69

10-year 15.75 18.28 23.10 14.88 17.53 23.96 14.45 16.35 20.49 15.02 17.92 25.20 14.04 14.90 16.38

20-year 16.33 19.75 26.86 15.28 18.94 28.95 14.65 17.01 22.67 15.41 19.40 30.75 14.17 15.21 17.08

50-year 17.09 21.96 33.32 15.80 21.16 38.42 14.88 17.87 26.02 15.93 21.73 41.31 14.32 15.58 18.03

100-year 17.66 23.87 39.67 16.19 23.17 48.64 15.02 18.51 28.99 16.31 23.81 52.73 14.41 15.83 18.76
321

Appendix B45. Table showing Rose Atoll monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 5.2±2.9 4.9±2.8 5.1±2.8 5.4±2.7 6.3±2.9 6.9±2.7 6.9±2.7 7.1±2.7 7.0±2.7 6.7±2.7 6.0±2.8 5.3±2.6

RCP4.5 - mid 5.3±2.8 5.1±2.8 5.3±2.7 5.5±2.7 6.5±2.9 7.0±2.7 7.0±2.7 7.1±2.6 7.3±2.7 7.0±2.7 6.2±2.9 5.3±2.6

RCP8.5 - mid 5.3±2.8 5.1±2.7 5.1±2.9 5.5±2.8 6.3±2.8 6.7±2.7 6.9±2.7 7.0±2.7 7.2±2.6 7.0±2.7 6.0±2.7 5.4±3.0

RCP4.5 - end 5.3±2.7 5.2±2.7 4.8±2.7 5.4±2.8 6.6±2.9 7.2±2.6 6.9±2.7 7.2±2.6 7.3±2.6 6.9±2.7 6.1±2.7 5.5±2.8

RCP8.5 - end 5.5±2.7 5.3±2.9 5.2±2.7 5.2±2.6 6.2±2.8 7.0±2.8 7.0±2.7 7.3±2.6 7.3±2.6 7.0±2.6 6.0±2.6 5.4±2.5

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 13.2±2.6 12.5±2.9 12.2±2.2 11.6±1.3 12.9±1.6 12.9±1.6 12.6±1.1 12.8±1.1 12.5±1.1 12.5±1.2 12.4±1.3 11.8±2.0

RCP4.5 - mid 12.6±2.4 12.6±2.8 11.8±2.1 11.9±1.5 12.6±1.4 12.6±1.0 12.5±0.8 12.4±1.0 12.8±1.0 12.5±0.8 12.6±1.5 11.6±1.7

RCP8.5 - mid 12.4±2.5 12.3±2.3 12.8±2.9 12.2±1.5 12.4±1.0 12.3±1.2 12.8±1.4 12.7±1.0 12.6±0.8 12.5±1.0 12.0±1.5 13.5±2.7

RCP4.5 - end 12.2±2.2 12.0±2.3 11.9±2.4 12.3±2.2 12.9±1.5 12.6±1.1 12.7±1.1 12.5±1.0 12.6±1.0 12.6±1.1 11.9±1.3 12.5±2.2

RCP8.5 - end 12.7±2.9 13.2±2.5 12.5±2.7 11.3±1.7 12.7±1.7 13.0±1.2 12.6±0.9 12.9±1.0 12.6±1.0 12.1±0.7 11.7±1.2 11.4±1.4

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 242±80 222±94 233±99 280±69 284±53 285±42 285±43 283±39 285±38 284±39 280±51 267±65

RCP4.5 - mid 244±76 217±92 221±10

3

283±72 286±48 284±42 284±43 284±38 285±34 285±37 283±49 270±66

RCP8.5 - mid 250±68 223±92 240±10

7

284±70 287±49 286±44 283±43 286±41 284±36 283±36 279±48 264±69

RCP4.5 - end 252±73 222±90 233±10

3

278±73 286±48 283±39 284±43 285±37 285±33 284±35 280±47 267±62

RCP8.5 - end 253±66 234±88 235±95 278±69 283±49 285±40 285±39 285±34 285±31 283±34 277±43 269±54

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 208±87 179±90 188±92 289±57 292±34 295±31 295±24 292±24 293±28 296±24 288±40 275±65

RCP4.5 - mid 195±78 169±68 162±85 294±55 294±32 290±32 296±23 297±22 294±23 294±20 289±40 281±57

RCP8.5 - mid 226±72 152±78 180±10

0

296±46 294±33 295±33 293±31 298±23 295±21 293±25 284±33 279±59

RCP4.5 - end 229±84 171±92 167±83 267±74 297±32 295±25 297±26 296±22 298±18 297±17 292±32 284±52

RCP8.5 - end 233±85 160±89 171±79 285±61 290±40 297±25 297±23 298±24 296±19 294±16 288±33 286±37
322

Appendix B46. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Rose Atoll location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 18.65 20.55 23.72 18.11 20.16 23.75 18.97 21.22 25.02 17.60 20.34 26.35 18.34 20.72 25.21

5-year 19.76 22.95 28.88 18.98 22.21 28.61 19.91 23.31 29.68 18.46 23.17 35.74 19.16 22.91 31.03

10-year 20.54 24.91 33.80 19.54 23.77 32.99 20.48 24.80 33.57 19.05 25.65 46.14 19.68 24.57 36.39

20-year 21.28 27.01 39.79 20.03 25.35 38.09 20.96 26.22 37.78 19.59 28.44 60.62 20.12 26.25 42.76

50-year 22.18 30.01 49.78 20.58 27.46 46.14 21.47 27.99 43.91 20.24 32.70 88.84 20.61 28.47 53.04

100-year 22.82 32.47 59.29 20.94 29.06 53.39 21.78 29.25 49.02 20.68 36.41 120.09 20.91 30.16 62.51
323

Appendix B47. Table showing Howland monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 5.7±1.9 5.9±1.7 5.5±1.6 5.1±1.6 4.8±1.8 5.2±1.9 6.0±1.8 6.1±1.8 6.0±1.9 5.5±1.9 5.3±2.0 5.3±2.1

RCP4.5 - mid 5.6±2.0 5.9±1.7 5.5±1.7 5.2±1.7 4.8±1.8 5.1±1.9 6.0±1.9 6.1±1.8 6.0±1.8 5.6±2.0 5.1±2.1 5.2±2.0

RCP8.5 - mid 5.8±1.9 6.0±1.7 5.5±1.7 5.0±1.6 4.6±1.7 5.1±1.9 6.0±1.9 6.1±1.8 6.0±1.8 5.6±1.9 5.4±2.0 5.4±2.0

RCP4.5 - end 5.8±1.9 5.9±1.8 5.6±1.7 5.0±1.7 4.8±1.8 5.2±1.9 5.9±1.9 6.1±1.8 6.0±1.8 5.6±1.9 5.3±2.0 5.4±2.2

RCP8.5 - end 5.8±1.8 6.0±1.7 5.6±1.7 5.1±1.8 4.9±1.8 5.2±1.9 6.2±2.0 6.5±1.9 6.3±1.8 5.9±1.9 5.5±1.8 5.5±1.9

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 9.6±0.9 9.5±0.8 8.7±0.6 8.2±0.8 8.6±1.1 8.9±0.8 9.3±0.8 9.4±0.6 9.4±0.7 9.2±0.8 9.4±1.1 9.8±1.4

RCP4.5 - mid 9.5±0.7 9.5±0.8 9.0±0.9 8.3±0.6 8.4±0.9 8.8±0.6 9.5±0.6 9.7±0.6 9.6±1.2 9.4±0.6 9.3±1.3 9.1±0.7

RCP8.5 - mid 9.5±0.6 9.6±0.8 8.8±0.6 8.2±0.6 7.9±0.6 8.9±0.7 9.6±0.7 9.6±0.8 9.5±0.7 9.2±0.7 9.6±1.1 9.4±1.2

RCP4.5 - end 9.7±1.0 9.5±0.7 8.8±0.6 8.1±0.5 8.4±0.9 9.1±0.8 9.6±1.0 9.5±0.7 9.4±0.7 9.4±0.7 9.5±1.3 10.1±1.3

RCP8.5 - end 9.5±0.8 9.3±0.7 8.9±0.8 8.5±0.7 8.5±1.4 9.0±0.8 9.7±0.7 9.7±0.6 9.5±0.7 9.6±1.5 8.9±0.6 9.2±0.8

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 256±33 254±28 258±29 268±33 275±38 278±36 279±28 280±27 280±32 280±35 277±41 268±37

RCP4.5 - mid 258±32 254±34 255±35 265±35 272±40 275±37 278±31 278±26 279±27 278±32 277±38 268±36

RCP8.5 - mid 258±32 255±28 258±30 266±31 272±36 276±34 277±29 279±27 279±31 279±37 277±40 266±37

RCP4.5 - end 255±33 253±29 254±31 264±33 270±42 274±37 276±30 279±30 279±32 279±38 276±41 266±39

RCP8.5 - end 258±31 254±25 258±29 263±33 268±37 271±35 277±35 278±31 280±31 280±34 277±34 268±31

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 234±40 232±30 238±27 260±31 282±53 286±35 283±28 280±17 279±23 276±36 284±72 258±56

RCP4.5 - mid 251±28 235±48 235±41 260±34 282±49 284±30 281±22 277±12 280±27 275±19 280±43 264±29

RCP8.5 - mid 238±30 235±25 241±23 262±31 279±24 281±22 278±17 279±21 279±18 277±33 284±72 240±55

RCP4.5 - end 232±35 229±26 235±26 260±23 273±54 283±40 281±29 279±28 277±31 276±40 284±68 247±66

RCP8.5 - end 239±31 236±26 243±21 260±33 272±53 276±30 277±32 274±21 276±39 277±46 273±32 254±36
324

Appendix B48. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Howland location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 12.32 13.36 15.21 12.22 13.15 14.77 11.93 12.83 14.64 12.63 13.84 16.07 12.09 13.17 15.36

5-year 12.93 14.81 18.74 12.78 14.43 17.70 12.32 13.95 17.82 13.15 15.16 19.40 12.54 14.48 19.19

10-year 13.39 16.16 22.60 13.21 15.58 20.77 12.62 14.98 21.41 13.51 16.24 22.66 12.88 15.69 23.52

20-year 13.87 17.75 27.94 13.64 16.90 24.85 12.91 16.19 26.49 13.84 17.39 26.74 13.21 17.11 29.69

50-year 14.51 20.32 38.23 14.22 18.98 32.35 13.29 18.14 36.57 14.23 19.04 33.76 13.64 19.40 41.98

100-year 15.01 22.68 49.51 14.66 20.84 40.20 13.57 19.93 47.95 14.49 20.40 40.63 13.96 21.51 55.91
325

Appendix B49. Table showing Jarvis monthly means and mean of the top 5 percent for wind speed and 

mean wind direction.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind directions are “coming from”]

Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Mean Wind Speed 

(m/s)

Hindcast 6.3±1.9 6.3±1.7 6.0±1.6 5.7±1.7 5.5±1.7 6.1±1.8 6.7±1.8 6.7±1.7 6.5±1.7 6.2±1.7 6.0±1.8 6.0±1.9

RCP4.5 - mid 6.1±1.9 6.0±1.8 5.8±1.7 5.6±1.7 5.3±1.9 6.0±1.8 6.7±1.8 6.7±1.6 6.4±1.5 6.0±1.7 5.9±1.8 5.9±1.8

RCP8.5 - mid 6.3±1.8 6.2±1.7 5.8±1.7 5.5±1.7 5.3±1.7 6.0±1.8 6.7±1.8 6.6±1.7 6.4±1.7 6.1±1.7 5.8±1.8 5.8±1.9

RCP4.5 - end 6.2±1.8 6.1±1.7 5.8±1.7 5.5±1.8 5.3±1.7 6.0±1.8 6.6±1.7 6.7±1.7 6.5±1.6 6.2±1.7 5.8±1.8 5.8±1.9

RCP8.5 - end 6.2±1.6 6.2±1.6 5.8±1.7 5.4±1.7 5.3±1.7 6.0±1.8 6.8±1.9 6.8±1.7 6.4±1.6 6.2±1.6 6.0±1.7 6.0±1.7

Top 5 percent Wind 

Speed (m/s)

Hindcast 10.1±1.0 9.6±0.8 9.1±0.7 9.0±1.0 8.8±0.7 9.4±0.7 9.7±0.5 9.8±0.5 9.5±0.6 9.4±0.5 10.0±1.7 9.8±0.7

RCP4.5 - mid 9.6±0.7 9.4±0.8 8.9±0.6 8.7±0.6 8.9±1.0 9.5±0.7 9.8±0.6 9.6±0.5 9.0±0.4 9.2±0.6 9.6±0.7 9.7±0.8

RCP8.5 - mid 9.7±0.7 9.3±0.8 8.9±0.8 8.6±0.7 8.6±0.7 9.4±0.6 9.9±0.8 9.5±0.6 9.3±0.6 9.2±0.6 9.4±0.6 9.5±0.7

RCP4.5 - end 9.8±0.8 9.5±0.7 9.2±1.0 8.8±0.7 8.6±0.7 9.5±0.8 9.6±0.5 9.7±0.6 9.2±0.6 9.3±1.0 9.4±0.7 9.7±0.8

RCP8.5 - end 9.4±0.9 9.4±0.8 8.7±0.5 8.5±0.6 8.6±0.8 9.5±0.7 9.9±0.5 9.7±0.5 9.1±0.6 9.2±0.6 9.3±0.5 9.4±0.6

Mean Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 259±29 255±28 258±27 261±26 263±27 266±24 268±23 270±21 270±21 270±22 270±28 265±28

RCP4.5 - mid 261±24 258±29 257±33 257±34 259±34 265±23 267±21 269±20 270±21 269±22 269±25 266±22

RCP8.5 - mid 259±31 256±31 256±30 258±30 262±28 264±23 268±22 269±21 270±20 270±23 269±27 265±30

RCP4.5 - end 259±33 256±29 256±29 257±30 260±31 265±24 268±24 271±23 271±23 271±26 269±30 265±30

RCP8.5 - end 259±26 256±27 256±27 257±28 259±29 264±23 270±23 271±20 272±21 271±26 272±26 267±27

Top 5 percent Wind 

Direction (°)

Hindcast 252±40 251±33 255±29 261±30 266±18 266±15 271±16 273±16 271±17 269±15 269±50 261±30

RCP4.5 - mid 260±26 256±33 258±39 263±29 266±33 268±13 268±12 268±14 270±14 268±16 266±26 262±15

RCP8.5 - mid 252±38 250±37 251±28 261±37 267±20 265±10 268±11 269±13 271±13 269±15 267±17 259±30

RCP4.5 - end 251±44 246±32 249±41 257±25 264±26 266±11 268±11 269±17 270±17 268±34 271±56 262±28

RCP8.5 - end 244±38 240±32 252±22 262±16 266±19 264±12 267±11 270±14 269±14 270±30 270±13 262±25
326

Appendix B50. Table showing return values of ensemble-average wind speeds of hindcast and forecast 

scenarios, including lower and higher 95 percent confidence intervals, at the Jarvis location.

[Years: Hindcast = 1976–2005; RCP mid = 2026–2045; RCP end = 2081–2100. Wind speeds are in meters per 

second]

Scenario

Hindcast RCP4.5 - mid RCP8.5 - mid RCP4.5 - end RCP8.5 - end

Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High Low Rv High

2-year 12.25 13.09 14.64 11.93 12.75 14.49 11.92 12.58 13.71 12.09 12.84 14.24 11.75 12.41 13.66

5-year 12.81 14.47 18.08 12.21 13.60 17.16 12.21 13.25 15.23 12.40 13.62 16.23 12.04 13.15 15.58

10-year 13.29 15.89 22.28 12.39 14.33 20.06 12.40 13.75 16.58 12.60 14.24 18.14 12.23 13.77 17.53

20-year 13.81 17.72 28.65 12.56 15.15 24.00 12.57 14.26 18.13 12.78 14.90 20.51 12.42 14.45 20.05

50-year 14.60 21.00 42.39 12.76 16.38 31.50 12.76 14.93 20.52 12.99 15.81 24.49 12.64 15.44 24.53

100-year 15.27 24.35 59.17 12.90 17.44 39.61 12.88 15.43 22.64 13.13 16.55 28.33 12.79 16.28 29.06
327

Appendix C. Monthly Trends in Wave Height

Appendix C1. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

American Samoa location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
328

Appendix C2. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the American Samoa location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
329

Appendix C3. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Kauai 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
330

Appendix C4. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Kauai location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
331

Appendix C5. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Big 

Island of Hawaii location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
332

Appendix C6. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Big Island of Hawaii location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent 

of significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the 

top 5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
333

Appendix C7. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Midway 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
334

Appendix C8. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Midway location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
335

Appendix C9. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Chuuk 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
336

Appendix C10. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Chuuk location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
337

Appendix C11. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Saipan 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
338

Appendix C12. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Saipan location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
339

Appendix C13. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Asuncion location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
340

Appendix C14. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Asuncion location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
341

Appendix C15. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Kosrae 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
342

Appendix C16. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Kosrae location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
343

Appendix C17. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Palau 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
344

Appendix C18. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Palau location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
345

Appendix C19. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Pohnpei location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
346

Appendix C20. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Pohnpei location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
347

Appendix C21. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Yap 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
348

Appendix C22. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Yap location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
349

Appendix C23. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Majuro 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
350

Appendix C24. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Majuro location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
351

Appendix C25. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Enewetak location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
352

Appendix C26. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Enewetak location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
353

Appendix C27. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Bikini 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
354

Appendix C28. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Bikini location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
355

Appendix C29. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Molokai 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
356

Appendix C30. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Molokai location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
357

Appendix C31. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Northwest Hawaiian Islands location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by 

month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave 

heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of 

the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly significant wave height means.
358

Appendix C32. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Northwest Hawaiian Islands location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 

percent of significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in 

mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of 

the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 

5 percent of monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means.
359

Appendix C33. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Guam 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
360

Appendix C34. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Guam location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
361

Appendix C35. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Kwajalein location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
362

Appendix C36. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Kwajalein location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
363

Appendix C37. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Wake 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
364

Appendix C38. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Wake location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
365

Appendix C39. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Johnston Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
366

Appendix C40. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Johnston Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
367

Appendix C41. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Kingman Reef location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
368

Appendix C42. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Kingman Reef location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
369

Appendix C43. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Palmyra Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
370

Appendix C44. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Palmyra Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
371

Appendix C45. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Rose 

Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated 

error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5

scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 

2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant 

wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in 

mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
372

Appendix C46. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Rose Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
373

Appendix C47. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the 

Howland location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the 

RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in 

mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for 

the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change 

in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

significant wave height means.
374

Appendix C48. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Howland location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of 

significant wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 

5 percent of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means.
375

Appendix C49. Plots showing trends in monthly mean significant wave height (Hs), in meters, at the Jarvis 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean significant wave heights by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly significant wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly significant wave height 

means.
376

Appendix C50. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave heights (Hs),

in meters, at the Jarvis location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of significant 

wave heights by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent 

of 2026–2045 significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly significant wave height means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–

2045 significant wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly 

significant wave height means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 

significant wave heights for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant 

wave height means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 significant

wave heights for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly significant wave 

height means.
377

Appendix D. Monthly Trends in Wind Speeds

Appendix D1. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the American 

Samoa location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. 

B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the 

change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind 

speed means.
378

Appendix D2. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

American Samoa location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by 

month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. 

C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 

of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed 

means.
379

Appendix D3. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kauai 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
380

Appendix D4. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Kauai location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
381

Appendix D5. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Big Island 

of Hawaii location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error 

bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from 

hindcasted monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for 

the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. 

Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly wind speed means.
382

Appendix D6. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Big Island of Hawaii location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds 

by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. 

C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 

of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed 

means.
383

Appendix D7. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Midway 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
384

Appendix D8. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Midway location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
385

Appendix D9. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Chuuk 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
386

Appendix D10. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Chuuk location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
387

Appendix D11. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Saipan 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
388

Appendix D12. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Saipan location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
389

Appendix D13. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Asuncion 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
390

Appendix D14. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Asuncion location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
391

Appendix D15. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kosrae 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
392

Appendix D16. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Kosrae location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
393

Appendix D17. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Palau 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
394

Appendix D18. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Palau location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
395

Appendix D19. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Pohnpei 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
396

Appendix D20. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Pohnpei location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
397

Appendix D21. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Yap 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
398

Appendix D22. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Yap location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
399

Appendix D23. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Majuro 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
400

Appendix D24. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Majuro location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
401

Appendix D25. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Enewetak

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
402

Appendix D26. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Enewetak location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
403

Appendix D27. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Bikini 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
404

Appendix D28. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Bikini location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
405

Appendix D29. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Molokai 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
406

Appendix D30. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Molokai location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
407

Appendix D31. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Northwest 

Hawaiian Islands location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated

error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from 

hindcasted monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for 

the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. 

Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly wind speed means.
408

Appendix D32. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Northwest Hawaiian Islands location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind 

speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 

2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind 

speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the 

RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change 

in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 

5 percent of monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed 

means.
409

Appendix D33. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Guam 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
410

Appendix D34. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Guam location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
411

Appendix D35. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kwajalein 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
412

Appendix D36. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Kwajalein location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
413

Appendix D37. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Wake 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
414

Appendix D38. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Wake location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
415

Appendix D39. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Johnston 

Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. 

Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the 

change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind 

speed means.
416

Appendix D40. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Johnston Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by 

month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. 

C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 

of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed 

means.
417

Appendix D41. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Kingman 

Reef location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. 

Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the 

change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind 

speed means.
418

Appendix D42. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Kingman Reef location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by 

month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. 

C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 

of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed 

means.
419

Appendix D43. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Palmyra 

Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. 

Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted 

monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the 

change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind 

speed means.
420

Appendix D44. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Palmyra Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by 

month with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 

wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. 

C. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5

scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 

of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 

percent of monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–

2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed 

means.
421

Appendix D45. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Rose Atoll 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
422

Appendix D46. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Rose Atoll location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
423

Appendix D47. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Howland 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
424

Appendix D48. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Howland location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month 

with associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind 

speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot 

of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.
425

Appendix D49. Plots showing trends in monthly mean wind speed, in meters per second, at the Jarvis 

location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean wind speeds by month with associated error bars. B. Plot 

of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly 

wind speed means. C. Plot of the change in mean 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario 

from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean 2081–2100 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean 

2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted monthly wind speed means.
426

Appendix D50. Plots showing trends in monthly mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds, in meters, at the 

Jarvis location. A. Hindcasted (1976–2005) mean of the top 5 percent of wind speeds by month with 

associated error bars. B. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds 

for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. C. Plot of the 

change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2026–2045 wind speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from 

hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means. D. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 

percent of 2081–2100 wind speeds for the RCP4.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of 

monthly wind speed means. E. Plot of the change in mean of the top 5 percent of 2081–2100 wind

speeds for the RCP8.5 scenario from hindcasted top 5 percent of monthly wind speed means.