APPENDIX B

2012 Needs Assessment
Changes Between Draft and Final Environment Impact Statement

Added as an Appendix.

Updated visitor use information.

Recalculated Minimum Extent Necessary Determination.

Corrected and improved display of calcuations.

Made numerous, minor editorial and spelling corrections.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-1 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

APPENDIX B

2012 NEEDS ASSESSMENT

Determination of Need and Extent Necessary for Commercial Services 

(Outfitters and Guides) in the Pasayten Wilderness and Lake ChelanSawtooth Wilderness

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

August 27, 2012

INTRODUCTION

The 1964 Wilderness Act (P.L. 88-577) prohibits commercial enterprises in wilderness. Section 4 

(d)(6) provides an exception allowing commercial services within wilderness areas “to the extent 

necessary for activities which are proper for realizing the recreational or other wilderness 

purposes of the areas.” Wilderness purposes are defined as recreational, scenic, scientific, 

educational, conservation, and historical use.

Three determinations must be made to authorize commercial services (outfitter-guides) in a 

wilderness area. First, the Forest Service must decide that the commercial service is necessary 

for realizing the recreational or other purposes of the wilderness area. Second, if a need is 

identified, decision makers must determine the ‘extent necessary’, or what amount of service is

needed to achieve the purposes of the Act. While need refers to whether visitors require a 

commercial service to access and experience wilderness to meet agency objectives, the ‘extent 

necessary’ must show why the amount or extent of services is necessary for realizing the public 

purposes of Wilderness. Third, once an amount of commercial use is determined to be the 

extent necessary, it must be determined that this level of use does not impair wilderness 

character. 

The Forest Service Handbook (FSH) 2709.11, 41.53d defines needs assessment as “an 

assessment of public or agency need for authorizing outfitting or guiding activities on NFS 

lands.” Forest Service policy on outfitting and guiding provides direction to conduct a needs 

assessment to determine the public or agency need for authorized outfitting and guiding 

activities (FSH 2709.11, 41.53e, 1). There is further direction provided for wilderness areas:

When conducting a needs assessment for outfitting and guiding activities in a 

wilderness area, assess whether these activities are necessary for realizing the 

recreational or other wilderness purposes of the area and the extent to which 

the activities may be authorized consistent with maintaining the wilderness 

character of the area (FSH 2709.11, 41.53e, 1a). 

FSH 2709.11 also directs units to conduct a resource capacity analysis “when monitoring 

demonstrates that impacts associated with use may exceed desired conditions” (41.53e, 2). 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-2 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

PROCESS

This needs assessment follows the process necessary to meet legal and policy requirements by 

answering key questions when deciding to authorize a commercial service in wilderness:

What types of commercial services are needed to meet management objectives, or in 

wilderness, the public purposes of wilderness? 

What amounts of these commercial services are needed to meet management 

objectives or purposes in an area?

Can the amount of needed commercial services be sustained while protecting 

wilderness character? 

The outcome of this process is intended to be an informed, defensible decision on the type, 

amount, location, and timing of commercial services authorized. The steps of this process are:

1. Determine needed services or activities

2. Evaluate public use and trends

3. Evaluate current outfitter-guide services

4. Determine recreation capacity and effects on wilderness character

5. Calculate the extent necessary for commercial services and the allocation of use to 

commercial services

6. Develop a monitoring plan

BACKGROUND

There are currently several companies providing outfitting and guiding services in the Pasayten 

and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness areas on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest. The 

combined number of service days is approximately 26% of overall use in the Pasayten and 6% in

the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth (refer to Figure * on page * and Figure * on page *). These 

companies have been operating for many years, one group of companies offering stock trips 

(with horses, mules, llamas, and burros), and another offering hiking, backpacking, 

mountaineering, survival skills instruction, environmental and wilderness education.

A needs assessment was completed for the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness 

areas in 1996, and is documented in the Assessment of Need for Outfitting/Guiding Assistance, 

Okanogan National Forest, Chelan Ranger District Portion of the Wenatchee National Forest 

North of Lake Chelan, 1996 (USDA Forest Service 1996a). The Assessment used a criteria-based 

perspective to determine the need for outfitter-guides. 

The 1996 Needs Assessment did not determine the “extent necessary” for outfitters in 

wilderness. The purpose of this 2012 Needs Assessment and Extent Necessary Determination 

document is to build on the analysis completed in 1996, updating and adding documentation of 

the extent of services needed to achieve the designated purposes in each wilderness. It also

describes a methodology for evaluating future proposed services in the Pasayten and Lake 

Chelan-Sawtooth Wildernesses on the Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest. This methodology 

may be useful during second-level screening of proposed uses (36 CFR 251.54(5)). It is intended 

to help the line officer determine if the proposed use would be in the public interest. 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-3 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

1. NEEDED SERVICES 

This step determines the types of outfitter-guide services needed to meet the public purposes of 

wilderness and what commercial services are available nearby. 

Finding of Necessity for Outfitted Services

The Forest Service has a need for outfitter-guides to assist in teaching people about wilderness 

practices and wilderness management, for those activities dependent on wilderness. Existing 

and proposed commercial services must be evaluated to determine if they meet this need, and 

are therefore consistent with the limitations put on commercial services in wilderness by the 

Wilderness Act. 

The 1996 Needs Assessment found there was a high need for outfitter-guides for stock and 

extended backpacking trips. This finding was confirmed using an updated method of evaluating 

need, described below. 

The traditional method for evaluating need (used in the 1996 Needs Assessment) gave a rating 

of high, medium, or low, sometimes converted to a numerical score, for each activity. The 

results of this method were sometimes vague in determining if an activity met the agency need, 

and should therefore be available for outfitting and guiding. 

The evaluation process was revised to produce a narrative evaluation of several criteria, and to 

reach a consensus decision about an activity meeting the need, meeting the need with 

modification, or failing to meet the need. This revised process is described below, followed by 

the results of the evaluation of the existing outfitter-guide services. This process will be used to 

document any new proposed activities in the future.

The first step was to determine if the activity is allowed in wilderness, then to evaluate it in 

terms of meeting the components of the Wilderness Act. The following questions were 

addressed:

1. Are services or activities legally allowed in wilderness and do services or activities 

support management objectives or general wilderness direction in forest management 

plans?

Identifying activities that are legal in wilderness is the first, and usually the easiest, step in the 

process. Does the Wilderness Act allow a proposed activity to occur in a wilderness area? Is 

there other legislation that explicitly allows the proposed activity? 

The existing commercial services (pack and saddle stock and backpacking outfitter-guides) are 

allowed under the Wilderness Act since they are non-motorized and non-mechanized.

2. Do services facilitate outstanding opportunities for solitude or a primitive and 

unconfined type of recreation as specified by Section 1 (c) of the Wilderness Act? 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-4 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Are commercial services essential to some visitor’s ability to realize this intended experience in 

wilderness? Are solitude and primitive or unconfined recreation major components of the 

activity?

The existing services educate clients about wilderness, and facilitate solitude, or primitive and 

unconfined recreation. Solitude and primitive or unconfined recreation are major 

components of the activities. Some visitors would not experience this type of recreation 

without the services due to lack of knowledge or skill required for wilderness camping. Stock 

trips do not use the packing opportunity to diminish the primitive nature or recreation with 

deluxe camp furniture, meals that require specialized cooking methods or equipment, or 

other modern equipment. 

3. Do activities meet a public purpose defined in Section 4 (b) of the Wilderness Act?

There are 6 public purposes identified in the Wilderness Act: recreational, scenic, scientific, 

educational, conservation, and historical use. 

Educational needs are addressed below. In this assessment the focus is on recreational 

purposes and specifically on personal limitations or specialized knowledge, equipment and skills. 

Scenic, scientific, conservation and historic purposes can also be met by commercial services. 

Do people need commercial services due to a limitation that restricts their ability to experience 

the wilderness, or are individuals traveling with others who have such limitations? Does the

proposed use require specialized knowledge, skills or equipment that would allow a wilderness 

visit that would otherwise not be possible? 

The existing services provide predominately recreational purposes, however clients also 

benefit from scenic, conservation, and historic aspects of the trips. The services are essential 

to some visitors who cannot hike extended distances, are not familiar or experienced with 

pack and saddle stock handling, or are not experienced backpackers.

The next step was to use the following categories to determine the need for the commercial 

services. Each category has criteria specified to articulate a specific need. The services were 

analyzed to determine if they met, partially met, or failed to meet the criterion statements. 

Meets – The activity completely meets the criterion statements. 

Partially Meets: The activity largely meets the criterion statements, or could be modified to 

completely meet.

Fails: The activity does not meet the stated criterion.

The following figure includes the categories and criteria. More information about the categories 

follows the figure.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-5 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-1. Categories of Need and Criteria to Determine Need 

Category Criteria

Education of 

Wilderness Practices 

and Wilderness 

Management

Teaching clients about wilderness practices and wilderness management are an 

integral objective of the activity. Examples include (but are not limited to) leaveno-trace techniques, courses teaching wilderness ethics, and regular instruction on 

wilderness regulations. 

The outfitter-guide lists teaching as an integral objective in advertising and other 

literature.

The outfitter-guide models appropriate wilderness behavior and is an ambassador 

for wilderness.

Skill The activity requires the participant to master unique, technical skills.

The activity requires considerable time and/or talent to master the skills. 

Use of a guide is almost a prerequisite for a novice to participate in the activity.

Equipment Specialized equipment needed for the activity is expensive to the point of being 

beyond the reach of many people that might otherwise try the activity. Equipment 

costs exceed $1,000.

Knowledge Outfitter offers unique knowledge about methods to access and use an activity 

area that would reduce resource damage.

Outfitter offers unique knowledge about methods to access and use an activity 

area that would reduce user conflicts.

Safety Without a guide's assistance, novice participants could seriously endanger their 

health or lives or the lives of others.

Demand The activity is very popular and there is a demonstrated demand for commercial 

services.

Education of Wilderness Practices and Wilderness Management

The Chief’s 10-Year Wilderness Challenge gives agency-wide management objectives for 

wilderness. Element #7 of the Challenge specifically addresses education and the roll outfitterguides play in teaching people about wilderness values. It directs outfitters to model 

appropriate wilderness practices and incorporate awareness for wilderness values in their 

interaction with clients and others. The outcome for this element is that;

[o]utfitters and guides will serve as ambassadors for wilderness. Their clients will leave with 

appreciation and knowledge that they may use in future self-guided trips to wilderness areas. 

Outfitters will provide a direct benefit to the wilderness they operate in by providing needed 

opportunities for visitors and education about wilderness. (Chief’s 10-Year Wilderness Challenge)

The existing services meet the need to educate clients about wilderness. The backpacking 

outfitters include wilderness education as part of their course descriptions, and teach leaveno-trace camping and traveling techniques. The pack and saddle stock outfitters also follow 

leave-no-trace techniques and model the behavior to their clients and other stock users. 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-6 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Skill

The activity requires learning technical skills which may or may not be easily learned without 

assistance. This criterion also evaluates the amount of time it may take to master the skills.

The existing services meet the need in the skill category. Both activities require a mastery of 

unique technical skills. Mastering skills in stock handling takes years of experience, and 

people with little to no experience cannot take extended pack and saddle stock wilderness 

trips without an outfitter-guide. Backpacking skills are learned more quickly, but still require 

a certain amount of time to acquire the skills necessary for extended, rugged backpacking 

trips.

Equipment

The activity requires specialized equipment that may be more expensive than a novice would be 

willing to pay without some assurance that they may enjoy and continue pursuing the activity.

The pack and saddle stock services meet the need in this category, while the backpacking 

services partially meet the need. Pack and saddle stock equipment, including all the costs 

associated with the animals in addition to the gear required, is very expensive, from the initial 

investment to the ongoing costs. Quality backpacking equipment can be expensive, although 

reasonably priced equipment is available. There are generally no ongoing costs once 

backpacking equipment is purchased.

Knowledge

In order to enjoy recreational opportunities in a manner that reduces resource damage and user 

conflicts, outfitter knowledge of the recreational resource and the activity area is needed by the 

public. This includes knowing where and by what method to best access and use an area.

The existing services also meet this need. Backpacking outfitter-guides have knowledge of 

lesser-used portions of the wilderness, and their activities reduce user conflicts and protect 

solitude by minimizing time spent in areas popular with the non-outfitted public. Improper 

stock handling techniques can cause substantial resource damage, so the pack and saddle 

stock outfitter-guides help minimize impacts from clients, and model behavior to the nonoutfitted public.

Safety

An outfitter-guide’s special skills and equipment are needed for a reasonable level of safety for 

the participants. Without a guide’s assistance, some members of the public could seriously 

endanger their health or lives in certain recreational activities. Some activities, such as 

horseback riding and stock handling are dangerous if a person is inexperienced. Safety needs to 

be evaluated considering the inherent risk and hazard in any wilderness setting, and the intent 

that these be part of the wilderness experience.

The pack and saddle stock services meet this need, while the backpacking services partially 

meet it. Novice backpackers could endanger their lives by getting lost, running out of water or 

food, not being prepared for changing weather, or any number of other situations. The risk of 

serious injury is low, and the backpacking skills can be learned relatively quickly. Safe stock 

handling skills take a considerable amount of time to learn, and novice users are at a much 

higher risk of serious injury or death.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-7 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Demand

There is a demonstrated demand for the service.

The existing services meet this need. There is a demonstrated, continuing demand for both 

services, however the demand for stock services has been on a downward trend for the past 

decade. It is unclear if this trend will continue because it is likely a result of wildfires, the 

downturn in the economy, and some businesses failing. The trend may reverse as burned 

areas recover and remaining businesses fill the void left by those who went out of business.

These findings are displayed in the following figure.

Figure B-2. Analysis of Need

Category Backpacking/Wilderness 

Education/Mountaineering

Pack & Saddle Stock Trips

Education of Wilderness 

Practices and Wilderness 

Management

Meets Criteria: Education about 

wilderness practices and 

management is an integral part of 

the services offered

Meets Criteria: Outfitters model 

proper stock handling techniques, 

and practice leave-no-trace camping 

techniques.

Skill Meets Criteria:

activity requires time to master skills

Meets Criteria:

Activity requires mastering skills that 

take a considerable amount of time 

to learn

Equipment Partially Meets Criteria:

Specialized equipment could have a 

combined cost of over $1,000, 

although less expensive equipment 

available

Meets Criteria:

Cost of stock and necessary 

equipment far exceeds $1,000 

Knowledge Meets Criteria:

Outfitter has knowledge of landscape 

to allow groups to avoid more 

popular locations, thus reducing user 

conflicts and impacts to solitude

Meets Criteria:

Proper stock handling techniques 

substantially reduce impacts to 

resources

Safety Partially Meets Criteria:

Novice participants could endanger 

their lives, however activities can be 

relatively easily learned 

Meets Criteria:

Stock can be dangerous and cause 

serious injury or death to riders and 

handlers. Novice participants could 

endanger their lives or the lives of 

others.

2. PUBLIC USE AND TRENDS

Pasayten Wilderness

The 531,541-acre Pasayten Wilderness spans the Methow Valley and Tonasket Ranger 

Districts. The western-most portion of the Pasayten is located on the Mt. BakerSnoqualmie and administered by the Methow Valley Ranger District. 

There are about 18,700 annual visitor days (one visitor day equals one person for one 

day) in the Pasayten. This number was calculated by converting the number of annual 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-8 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

visits reported in the National Recreation Use Monitoring completed on the Okanogan 

National Forest in 2005 to visitor days. The number of annual visits was 11,000, and the 

average length of stay was 40.7 hours (averaged for the Pasayten and Lake ChelanSawtooth together). Multiplying these numbers gives the total number of hours spent in 

the Pasayten. Dividing this product by 24 hours converted 11,000 visits to 18,654, 

rounded to 18,700 visitor days. 

This figure is supported by data gathered on registration permits. Wilderness visitors are 

required to fill out a registration permit prior to entering the wilderness. Data from these 

permits was compiled and averaged for 2001 through 2011, showing an average of * 

visitor days annually. 

National Visitor Use Monitoring was completed again in 2010, with a report compiling the 

data issued in 2011. This reported that there were 5,000 visits to the Pasayten that year 

with an average stay of 12 hours. This calculates out to 2,500 visitor days, which is 

substantially lower than the 2005 data, and the average of the registration permits. 

Therefore, the 2010 data for wilderness visitation was determined to not be reliable 

enough to use, and the 2005 data to be the most reliable information available. 

About 70% are backpacking, and 30% are stock visitor days. This breakdown was 

developed by analyzing trailhead registrations, wilderness permits, and the professional 

judgment of the wilderness manager and wilderness rangers on the Methow Valley

Ranger District. 

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wilderness

The 153,129 acre Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wilderness is divided between the Methow 

Valley and Chelan Ranger Districts. 

There are about 36,600 annual visitor days (one visitor day equals one person for one 

day) in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth. This number was generated by the National 

Recreation Use Monitoring completed on the Okanogan and Wenatchee National Forests

in 2005 to visitor days. The number of annual visits was 21,600 (USDA, 2006c & 2006d). 

This was converted to visitor days in the same method described above. The average 

length of stay was 40.7 hours, so the 21,600 visits were converted to approximately 

36,630 visitor days, rounded to 36,600 visitor days. 

Registration permits are not required for the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, however trailhead 

registration boxes are at each trailhead. Some people fill out the registration information, 

but since it is not a requirement, many do not register, therefore data compiled from the 

registrations is not a reliable source for determining visitation. Since the 2010 NVUM 

data had questionable reliability for the Pasayten Wilderness, and to use a consistent data 

source for both wilderness areas, the 2005 NVUM data was used for the Lake ChelanSawtooth also. 

About 65% are backpacking and 35% are stock visitor days. This breakdown was 

developed by analyzing trailhead registrations, wilderness permits, and the professional 

judgment of the wilderness manager and wilderness rangers on the Methow Valley 

Ranger District.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-9 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Trends

There will be increasing demand for recreation in the coming years. The technical report 

Outdoor Recreation in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska: Trends in Activity Participation

(Hall et al, 2009), predicts that since the population of Washington will increase, the 

number of people recreating will also increase, all other factors being even. There will be 

increases in population in all age groups, and younger people are still showing strong 

interest in outdoor recreation. The popularity of recreation activities near water is 

expected to grow, as is the use of popular day use areas. Word-of-mouth 

recommendations and media exposure will spread interest in these popular areas, and

crowding and conflict will likely increase (Hall et al, 2009). 

In 2003, the Washington State Recreation and Conservation Office (RCO) completed a 

report that projected participation rates of nature-based activities in Washington State 

over a 10-year and 20-year period based on participation data from the 1999-2000 RCO 

survey (IAC 2003). These projections, shown in Figure *, took into account NSRE data and 

projections for the Pacific Northwest Region, demographic trends in Washington State, 

the local supply of lands available for recreation activities, and other factors.

Figure B-3. RCO Recreation Participation Projections as a Percent of Change in the Number of 

People Participating in the Future Compared to 1999-2000 Survey Results (IAC 2003)

Activity Projected % growth in # of participants (2010-2020)

Hiking & Backpacking +13%

Equestrian +3%

These projections were used to estimate the number of people who will be recreating in 

the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth ten years from now.

Figure B-4. Current Number of Visitor days by User Group in the Pasayten, Estimated Increase, and 

Future Number of Visitor Days.

User Group Current Visitor 

Days*

Estimated Future 

Increase

Estimated Number of 

Visitor Days in 2022

Backpackers 13,090 13% 14,792

Stock Users 5,610 3% 5,778

TOTAL 18,700 20,570

*Includes current outfitter-guide service days

Figure B-5. Current Number of Visitor days by User Group in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, Estimated 

Increase, and Future Number of Visitor Days.

User Group Current Visitor 

Days*

Estimated Future 

Increase

Estimated Number of 

Visitor Days in 2022

Backpackers 23,790 13% 26,883

Stock Users 12,810 3% 13,194

TOTAL 36,600 40,077

*Includes current outfitter-guide service days
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-10 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

3. EXISTING COMMERCIAL SERVICES

Currently, there are two major categories of outfitter-guide commercial services in the 

Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wildernesses. One is for 

backpacking/mountaineering/wilderness education (hereafter referred to as “backpacking”), 

and the mode of transportation is foot travel. The other category is pack and saddle stock 

(hereafter referred to as “stock”). Most stock clients ride horses, but some hike while pack 

animals carry their supplies. 

The existing outfitter-guide companies have been operating in the wilderness areas for at 

least 20 years, and have had a variety of types of special use permits. Among the stock

outfitter-guides, some operated under five-year term permits for years. Others operated 

under short-term, annual permits that were reissued year after year. All the five-year term 

permits expired over the past ten years, so every stock company has been issued short-term 

permits annually, waiting completion of a NEPA analysis of issuing ten-year permits. One of 

the backpacking companies is currently operating under a 10-year permit, while the others 

have short-term permits. The Forest Service is working on the NEPA analysis for 10-year 

permits for these companies also.

The current permits include a specified a number of service days (usually called “priority use 

days”). The Forest Service has also established a pool of service days. Outfitters can request 

days from the pool if they are going to exceed their allotment of priority use days, or if they 

want to operate in an area where they have no assigned days. The pool days are returned to 

the pool each season, and assigned on a first-come first-served basis the following year. This 

allows for fluctuations in the number of people needing outfitter-guide services in any given 

year.

Pasayten

The current number of service days available for both priority and temporary use was 

used to calculate the percentage of overall outfitter use. Approximately 24% of the 

13,058 backpackers are clients of the outfitters, and approximately 32% of the stock users 

are outfitted. Overall, outfitter-guide service days represent 26% of the visitor days in the 

Pasayten.

Figure B-6. Current Number of Visitor days by User Group in the Pasayten, and Number of OutfitterGuide Service Days in Current Permits

User Group Total Visitor 

days*

Outfitterguide Service 

Days

% of Total Visitor 

Days

Backpackers 13,090 3,150 24%

Stock Users 5,610 1,800 32%

TOTAL 18,700 4,945 26%

*Includes outfitter-guide service days

The number of service days varies from year to year, as does the number of non-outfitted 

recreationists, so these percentages are approximate. The following chart lists the actual 

number of service days used by year, and by activity, for years ranging from 2001 to 2011.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-11 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-7. Number of Outfitter-Guide Actual Use Service Days by Year and Activity in the Pasayten

Year Activity Outfitter-Guide Service Days

(Actual Use)

2001 Backpackers 2,861

Stock Users 1,580

TOTAL 4,441

2002 Backpackers 1,950

Stock Users 1,677

TOTAL 3,617

2003 Backpackers 2,242

Stock Users 929

TOTAL 3,171

2004 Backpackers 2,605

Stock Users 1,316

TOTAL 3,921

2005 Backpackers 2,984

Stock Users 842

TOTAL 3,826

2006 Backpackers 1,846

Stock Users 899

TOTAL 2,745

2007 Backpackers 2,118

Stock Users 1,018

TOTAL 3,136

2008 Backpackers 1,503

Stock Users 1,123

TOTAL 2,626

2009 Backpackers 1,380

Stock Users 760

TOTAL 2,140

2010 Backpackers 1,854

Stock Users 810

TOTAL 2,664

2011 Backpackers 2,084

Stock Users 793

TOTAL 2,887

The following figure displays the data in graph form.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-12 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-8. Number of Service Days by Activity and Year in the Pasayten Wilderness.

There is an overall downward trend in the number of service days the existing outfitters 

are providing. The reason for this is unknown, but is likely a result of several factors. The 

first factor could be a simple decrease in the popularity of the activity. Two other factors 

have likely been wildfires and that some of the existing companies operating in the early 

2000s ceased operations, or substantially reduced the number of service days reported. 

Another effect may have been the down-turn in the economy.

Approximately 130,000 acres have burned in the Pasayten since 2001. The major fires 

have included:

Thirtymile Fire (2001)

Farewell Fire (2003)

Tatoosh Buttes and Tripod (2006)

These fires have affected the outfitters’ ability to use traditional areas and decreased the 

number of people coming to the Methow Valley, likely decreasing the number of clients

seeking service. The effects of the fires have continued into the years following the fires -

trails have been closed, or have become much more difficult to travel, established 

campsites have been burned, and the character of the land has changed. These factors 

have all contributed to a decline in clients. 

The total number of service days has also decreased because fewer outfitters are 

operating. Two outfitters who operated in the early 2000s stopped operating in the mid2000s. Another company was sold in the mid-2000s, and the new owner reported 

reduced numbers of service days for the first few years of operation. Another outfitter 

took non-use in 2009. Some of the clients of these outfitters may have shifted to active 

outfitters, requested trips in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wilderness or other areas where 

shorter trips are offered, or simply stopped hiring an outfitter.

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Service Days

Year

Stock Users

Hikers
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-13 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

The other factor possibly affecting the outfitter-guide business may have been the 

downturn in the economy, however there was not a corresponding decrease in the 

number of service days in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth (see following section). 

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth

The current number of service days available for both priority and temporary use was 

used to calculate the current percentage of overall use outfitter. Approximately 6% of the 

stock users are outfitted, and 6% of backpackers. Overall, outfitter-guide service days 

represent 6% of the visitor days in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth.

Figure B-9. Current Number of Visitor Days by User Group in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, and 

Number of Outfitter-Guide Service Days in Current Permits

User Group Total Visitor 

days*

Outfitter-guide Service 

Days

% of Total 

Visitor Days

Backpackers 23,790 1,400 6%

Stock Users 12,810 715 6%

TOTAL 36,600 2,115 6%

*Includes outfitter-guide service days

The number of visitor days and the number of service days varies from year to year. The 

following chart lists the number of service days by year, and by activity.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-14 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-10. Number of Outfitter-Guide Service Days by Year and Activity in the Lake 

Chelan-Sawtooth

Year Activity Outfitter-Guide Service Days

(Actual Use)

2001 Backpackers 1,263

Stock Users 234

TOTAL 1,497

2002 Backpackers 318

Stock Users 380

TOTAL 698

2003 Backpackers 566

Stock Users 662

TOTAL 1,228

2004 Backpackers 522

Stock Users 279

TOTAL 801

2005 Backpackers 792

Stock Users 508

TOTAL 1,300

2006 Backpackers 594

Stock Users 271

TOTAL 865

2007 Backpackers 736

Stock Users 327

TOTAL 1,063

2008 Backpackers 1,290

Stock Users 336

TOTAL 1,626

2009 Backpackers 1,397

Stock Users 200

TOTAL 1,597

2010 Backpackers 1,057

Stock Users 190

TOTAL 1,247

2011 Backpackers 907

Stock users 149

TOTAL 1,056
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-15 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

The following figure displays the data in graph form.

Figure B-11. Number of Service Days by Activity and Year in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth.

The number of service days the existing outfitters have provided has remained somewhat 

steady, with a drop in numbers in the mid-2000s, most likely due to wildfires, and drop in 

business for two of the major backpacking companies. 

Approximately 36,000 acres have burned in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth since 2000. Some 

of the larger fires are listed below:

Rex Creek, 2001

Flick Creek, 2006

These fires burned in the portion of the wilderness in the Chelan watershed, and kept the 

stock outfitters out of some of their traditional use areas. In addition to the fires listed 

above, major fires outside the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wilderness, most notably the 

Thirtymile Fire in 2001, Deer Point in 2002, the Farewell and Needle Creek fires in 2003, 

and the Tripod and Tatoosh fires in 2006 caused an overall decrease in the number of 

people coming to the valley as a result of smoke and concern about the fires. This is 

reflected in the demand for service days in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth. Use levels 

rebounded in the year or two following the fires, although some outfitter-guide 

traditional use camps were burned over.

The down-turn in the economy does not seem to have affected service days in the Lake 

Chelan-Sawtooth. It may be that trips into the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth tend to be shorter, 

and less expensive from the Methow Valley Ranger District trailhead starting points. In 

addition, the hiker/backpacker outfitter-guides have shifted some of their business from 

the Pasayten to the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth and other portions of their permit area outside 

wilderness where trips are shorter and resupply logistics are simpler.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Number of Service Days

Year

Stock Users

Hikers
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-16 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Authorized Service Days Verses Actual Use

The number of authorized days in any given year is the sum of all priority use days (whether 

used or not) plus actual number of temporary or pool days used. This total is the amount of 

service days that could have conceivably been used, and is the number that was authorized 

for that year. 

Actual service days are the total of service days actually used, regardless of whether they 

were priority, temporary, or pool. Unused priority use days are not included in actual use. 

To determine the number of authorized service days, the number of unused priority use days 

for any given year was added to the actual use for that year. 

The following figures show the relationship between actual and authorized use. In the 

Pasayten, actual use was lower that authorized use for both backpacking and stock outfitting 

and guiding. In the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, stock actual use was lower than the authorized 

every year, while actual use equaled authorized use for the backpacking outfitters five out of 

the eleven years. 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-17 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-12. Comparison of Actual Use to Authorized Use by Activity and Year in the Pasayten

Year Activity Actual Outfitter-Guide 

Service Days

Authorized Outfitter-Guide 

Service Days

2001 Backpackers 2,861 3,645

Stock Users 1,580 1,945

TOTAL 4,441 5,590

2002 Backpackers 1,950 3,605

Stock Users 1,677 2,059

TOTAL 3,617 5,664

2003 Backpackers 2,242 3,105

Stock Users 929 1,746

TOTAL 3,171 4,851

2004 Backpackers 2,605 3,353

Stock Users 1,316 1,888

TOTAL 3,921 5,241

2005 Backpackers 2,984 3,003

Stock Users 842 1,532

TOTAL 3,826 4,535

2006 Backpackers 1,846 2,706

Stock Users 899 1,635

TOTAL 2,745 4,341

2007 Backpackers 2,118 2,916

Stock Users 1,018 1,665

TOTAL 3,136 4,581

2008 Backpackers 1,503 2,815

Stock Users 1,123 1,911

TOTAL 2,626 4,726

2009 Backpackers 1,380 2,635

Stock Users 760 1589

TOTAL 2,140 3,931

2010 Backpackers 1,854 3,167

Stock Users 810 1,799

TOTAL 2,664 4,966

2011 Backpackers 2,084 3,267

Stock Users 793 1,799

TOTAL 2,887 5,966
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-18 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

The following figure displays this information in chart form. Pack and saddle and hiking service 

days are combined into the total actual and authorized use by year.

Figure B-13. Outfitter-Guide Actual Use and Authorized Use in Pasayten

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Service Days

Year

Actual Use

Authorized Use
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-19 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-14. Comparison of Actual Use to Authorized Use by Activity and Year in the 

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth

Year Activity Actual Outfitter-Guide 

Service Days

Authorized Outfitter-Guide 

Service Days

2001 Backpackers 1,263 1,263

Stock Users 234 588

TOTAL 1,497 1,821

2002 Backpackers 318 937

Stock Users 380 628

TOTAL 698 1,565

2003 Backpackers 566 838

Stock Users 662 832

TOTAL 1,228 1,670

2004 Backpackers 522 824

Stock Users 279 581

TOTAL 801 1,405

2005 Backpackers 792 792

Stock Users 508 687

TOTAL 1,300 1,497

2006 Backpackers 594 900

Stock Users 271 534

TOTAL 865 1,434

2007 Backpackers 736 838

Stock Users 327 677

TOTAL 1,063 1,515

2008 Backpackers 1,290 1,290

Stock Users 336 445

TOTAL 1,626 1,735

2009 Backpackers 1,397 1,397

Stock Users 200 570

TOTAL 1,597 1,921

2010 Backpackers 1,057 1,207

Stock Users 190 567

TOTAL 1,247 1,774

2011 Backpackers 907 1,057

Stock Users 149 567

TOTAL 1,056 1,624

The following figure displays this information in chart form. Pack and saddle and hiking service 

days are combined into the total actual and authorized use by year.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-20 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-15. Outfitter-Guide Actual Use and Authorized Use in Lake Chelan-Sawtooth

Commercial Services Available to the Public Nearby 

There are few commercial services offering extended trips into a wilderness setting in the 

vicinity. The Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth sit in the northern-most stretch of the North 

Cascades in Washington State. The Ross Lake National Recreation Area and North Cascades 

National Park are adjacent to the south and west of the areas, and provide wilderness 

experiences. There are also non-wilderness areas on the Methow Valley Ranger District, 

specifically the Sawtooth Backcountry and the Harts Pass/Pacific Crest Trail area which offer 

opportunities to travel in undeveloped areas. The existing outfitter-guides take clients into 

these areas. Outfitter-guides also operate in the National Recreation Area and North Cascades 

National Park, but their trips often cross boundaries between the public lands managed by the 

two different agencies (Park Service and Forest Service). 

Commercial outfitting and guiding is offered in wilderness areas across Washington. The 

following chart lists the wilderness areas within a 300 mile drive of the Pasayten and Lake 

Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness areas, their annual visitation, and the sub-regions served by the 

areas.

Figure B-16. Wildernesses in Washington State within 300 driving miles of the Pasayten and Lake 

Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness areas.

Wilderness 

Areas

Type of setting Acres Annual Visitation

(from NVUM 

data)

Sub-regions Served

Alpine Lakes Low-elevation forest 

to alpine. Over 800 

lakes. Extensive trail 

system and off trail 

opportunities. 

362,798 297,756 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

NE Washington

Boulder River Low-elevation forest 

to alpine. Limited trail 

system. Low elevation 

48,674 9,192 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Service Days

Year

Actual Use

Authorized Use
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-21 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Wilderness 

Areas

Type of setting Acres Annual Visitation

(from NVUM 

data)

Sub-regions Served

trails have long season 

of use.

Buckhorn Low-elevation forest 

to alpine. Adjacent to 

Olympic National Park.

44,258 11,926 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

Clearwater Low-elevation forest 

to subalpine. Limited 

trail system. Off trail 

opportunities. One 

lake.

14,192 2,789 visits Seattle area

Colonel Bob 

Wilderness

Low-elevation forest 

to subalpine. Adjacent 

to Olympic National 

Park.

11,961 not available1Seattle area

NW Washington

Glacier Peak Low-elevation forest 

to alpine. Extensive 

trail system and off 

trail opportunities. 

Glacier Peak is a 

glaciated volcano. 

Scattered lakes.

570,573 22,072 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

NE Washington

Glacier View Subalpine and alpine, 

with views of Mt. 

Rainier. Adjacent to 

Mt. Rainier National 

Park.

3,123 not available2Seattle area

NW Washington

Goat Rocks Mid-elevation forest to 

alpine with a wellknown meadow 

system and a few small 

lakes. Extensive trail 

system.

107,018 3,714 visits

(Wenatchee NF 

portion only. See 

footnote regarding 

Gifford Pinchot 

NF)

Seattle area

SW Washington

Henry M. 

Jackson

Mid-elevation forest to 

subalpine with dozens 

of lakes. Extensive trail 

system that connects 

to Glacier Peak 

Wilderness. Off trail 

opportunities.

100,356 19,338 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

NE Washington

Indian Heaven Forested volcanic 

plateau with many 

20,960 Not available. See 

footnote regarding 

Seattle area

SE Washington

 

1

For the Olympic National Forest, NVUM lumped wilderness use for all but the Buckhorn Wilderness. 

Combined visits to the Colonel Bob, Mt. Skokomish, The Brothers, and the Wonder Mountain 

Wildernesses are estimated to be 11,849 visits per year.

2

For the Gifford Pinchot National Forest, NVUM data lumped wilderness use for all but the Mt. Adams 

Wilderness. Visits to the Glacier View, Indian Heaven, Trapper Creek, Tatoosh, and the Gifford Pinchot 

National Forest portions of the Goat Rocks, and William O. Douglas Wildernesses are estimated to be 

13,600 visits per year.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-22 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Wilderness 

Areas

Type of setting Acres Annual Visitation

(from NVUM 

data)

Sub-regions Served

small lakes and cinder 

cones.

Gifford Pinchot 

NF.

Juniper Dunes Sand dunes with small 

groves of juniper. 

Managed by BLM.

7,140 No legal public 

access. 

600 visits

Spokane area

SE Washington

Mt. Adams Mid-elevation forest to 

alpine. Mt. Adams is a 

glaciated volcano.

46,353 6,300 visits SE Washington

Mt. Baker Mid-elevation forest to 

alpine. Mt. Baker is a 

glaciated volcano. 

Adjacent to North 

Cascades National 

Park.

117,528 20,459 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

Mount Rainier Mid-elevation forest to 

alpine. Mt. Rainier is a 

glaciated volcano.

228,480 28,000 user nights 

plus 11,000 

climbers

Seattle area

NW Washington

SE Washington

Mount 

Skokomish

Low elevation forest to 

alpine. Adjacent to 

Olympic National Park.

13,015 Not available. See 

footnote for 

Olympic National 

Forest.

Seattle area

NW Washington

Noisy-Diobsud Low-elevation forest 

to subalpine. Less 

accessible with few 

trails. Adjoins North 

Cascades National 

Park.

14,133 1,470 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

Norse Peak Low elevation forest to 

subalpine. Proximate 

to Mt. Rainier National 

Park and the William 

O. Douglas Wilderness.

52,180 9,119 visits Seattle area

SW Washington

Olympic Low elevation forest to 

alpine. Extensive trail 

system and off trail 

opportunities.

876,669 40,000 visits Seattle area

NW Washington

Salmo-Priest Mid elevation forest to 

subalpine.

41,335 7,625 visits Spokane area

NE Washington

San Juan 

Wilderness

Maritime islands 

comprised of 81 

separate parcels. 

Managed to protect 

wildlife habitat values.

353 4,096 visits

Public access only 

allowed on one 

small island. 

Seattle area

NW Washington

Stephen Mather Mid elevation forest to 

alpine. Scattered lakes. 

Extensive trail system 

and off trail 

opportunities.

634,614 Approximately 

20,000 overnight 

visits. 

No data for day 

use visits.

Seattle area

NW Washington

NE Washington
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-23 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Wilderness 

Areas

Type of setting Acres Annual Visitation

(from NVUM 

data)

Sub-regions Served

WenahaTucannonLow to mid elevation 

forest and meadows.

177,423 Not available3Spokane area

SE Washington

Wild Sky Low elevation forest to 

subalpine. Scattered 

lakes. Portions are 

adjacent to Henry M. 

Jackson Wilderness.

106,577 Not available4Seattle area

NE Washington

William O. 

Douglas

Mid elevation forest to 

alpine. Scattered lakes. 

Adjacent to Mt. Rainier 

National Park.

168,232 19,373 visits

(Wenatchee NF 

portion only)

Seattle area

SE Washington

Wonder 

Mountain

Mid elevation forest to 

subalpine. Adjacent to 

Olympic National Park.

2,349 Not available. See 

footnote regarding 

Olympic NF.

Seattle area

NW Washington

4. WILDERNESS CAPACITY AND EFFECTS TO WILDERNESS CHARACTER

This step examines the condition and trends of the biophysical resources and determines the 

capacity of each wilderness area.

Conditions and Trends of the Social and Biophysical Resource

The biophysical resource conditions in the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness areas 

have been stable or on an upward trend since the areas were designated as part of the 

Wilderness Preservation System. In order to understand this, it is important to consider the 

historic use of the areas. Human activities altered the biophysical condition of the resources 

prior to designation. Commercial livestock grazing and wildfire suppression had altered plant 

communities over much of the landscape, and fish stocking of high elevation lakes changed the 

aquatic ecosystems and recreation use patterns. Recreation activities (including outfitting and 

guiding), livestock herders, and mining activities created a network of trails, campsites, and 

scattered buildings in both wilderness areas. Some of the effects of these past activities are still 

evident today. 

Commercial livestock grazing declined and eventually ceased not long after these wilderness 

areas were designated. This, coupled with recreation party size controls and other standards 

and guidelines from the forest plans, began, and is perpetuating the upward trend in the 

untrammeled, natural, and undeveloped qualities of the wilderness character. Tungsten was 

mined in the Pasayten Wilderness in one location, but there has been no mining activity since 

the mid-1900s. Some buildings remain at the mine site, and it is a destination for some 

 

3

For the Umatilla National Forest, NVUM lumped wilderness use for all wilderness. Combined visits to the 

Wenaha-Tucannon, North Fork Umatilla, and North Fork John Day Wildernesses are estimated to be 

62,573 visits per year.

4 Wild Sky was established in 2008 and no visitation data had been compiled at the time of this 

Assessment.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-24 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

recreationists. This has degraded the undeveloped quality in the immediate vicinity, but is 

having a very minor impact to the overall undeveloped quality of the Pasayten. 

People have been using stock to travel into the backcountry for nearly a century. Stock

outfitter-guides have been operating in the areas for decades, since before the Pasayten and 

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wildernesses were designated, and long before the Forest Plans were 

signed and implemented. There were no limitations on party sizes at the time, so groups larger 

than the current 12 people and 18 head of stock limitations traveled through and camped in the 

wilderness. Camps were constructed and maintained to provide for clients’ comfort, with 

facilities such as permanent latrines, picnic tables, cook tents with wooden floors and ovens, 

camp furniture, and tent pads. Trees were cut down for firewood, or to improve the view or layout of camps. Stock were tied to trees, damaging some, and exposing their roots. All these 

activities were completely legal and acceptable at the time. Many camps originally used by 

livestock permittees were converted to stock outfitter camps. This created and perpetuated 

camps with large areas of vegetation loss and compacted bare mineral soil, trees with exposed 

roots, trees killed by recreation activities, and removal of all snags in and around camps. 

Hiking and backpacking started to gain popularity in the 1960s and 1970s, and overtook 

horseback riding as the most common mode of transportation into the backcountry. Outfitterguides offering trips in backpacking and wilderness skills have been operating in the Pasayten 

and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness areas since 1977. These groups occasionally use the 

large, established campsites, but also operate in the trail-less portions of the wilderness areas, 

teaching their clients about hiking, backpacking, mountaineering, survival skills, environmental 

and wilderness education.

Many of these campsites are used today by recreationists and outfitters. Due to the level of 

historic and continuing use, these hardened sites are still devoid of vegetation cover. Most of 

the camp areas predate the current Land Management Plans and exceed current plan standards 

for vegetation loss and compacted bare mineral soils, and number of trees with exposed roots. 

The camps are having a localized, moderate effect on the opportunities for solitude. 

The social resources in the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth are also on a stable or upward 

trend. Outstanding opportunities for solitude, primitive, and unconfined recreation exist in 

most locations throughout the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness areas. Every 

person has a different perception of solitude, and of how many encounters with others it takes 

to lose the sense of solitude. The 2009 Wilderness Use Study: A Comparison of Pasayten and 

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wilderness Use Patterns (Burns, et al, 2010) (hereupon called “2009 

Wilderness Use Study”) gathered information on people’s perception of the opportunity for 

solitude by asking about crowding. Approximately 90 to 95% of those interviewed did not feel 

crowded at all or felt only slightly crowded during their trips in the wilderness areas. The feeling 

of crowds is grounded in a person’s expectations, and about three-quarters (72% in the 

Pasayten and 79% in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth) of the people saw as many or fewer people 

than they expected. Roughly one-half (55% in the Pasayten and 42% in the Lake ChelanSawtooth) of the visitors felt solitude is part of the wilderness experience, while the other half 

(43% in the Pasayten and 48% in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth) felt that they did not expect 

complete solitude and expected to see other people some of the time (Burns, et al, 2010).
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-25 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

The Okanogan and Wenatchee Forest Plans have standards addressing social capacity by 

controlling the number of encounters a recreationist should not exceed in a day. The Okanogan 

Forest Plan states that there needs to be an 80% probability of not encountering more than one 

other group per day in management area 15A (trailless), and not more than 7 in management 

are 15B (trailed). The Wentachee Forest Plan also has these same two levels for pristine and 

primitive, respectively, and includes an 80% probability of not more than 10 groups or 

individuals traveling along in semi-primitive, and not more than 10 to 20 groups or individuals in 

transition areas of wilderness. The Forest Service has also been gathering encounter data, and 

found that both wilderness areas comply with these standards and guidelines. Details are 

included later in this document, under the section titled “Encounter Studies”. 

Capacity Analysis 

An important step in determining the minimum extent necessary for commercial services in 

wilderness is to complete a capacity analysis. A capacity analysis is an exercise that calculates 

the maximum capacity of an area (expressed in visitor days), where the amount of interaction 

between people, and the effect of the people on the resources meets forest plan and other 

management direction. In other words, capacity is defined as the amount of overall use an area 

can sustain without detrimental social or physical resource impacts (without impairing 

wilderness character). Biophysical capacity is based on resource conditions, and ensuring nondegradation of wilderness character. Social capacity is based on Forest Plan standards and 

guidelines, the opinions of the people recreating in the wilderness, and their satisfaction of their 

experiences. The overall capacity determination is made considering both the biophysical and 

social capacity findings. 

The capacity determination for both the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wildernesses 

found that the existing amount of use is within biophysical and social capacities at this time. 

The details of each component are described below. 

Biophysical Capacity

There are many different ways to determine capacity. The technique used here is from 

Numerical Visitor Capacity: A Guide to Its Use in Wilderness (Cole and Carlson, 2010). This 

two-step process involves identifying thresholds and estimating the maximum amount of 

visitor use that can occur without exceeding the thresholds. Diversity in the wilderness is 

maintained by dividing each area into zones. The forest plans established these zones, with 

standards and guidelines for each zone setting limits for encounters, barren core and 

vegetation loss, number of campsites visible or audible from other campsites, trail 

densities, and other factors.

The factor used for determining capacity in the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth is the 

size and number of established campsites. The effects of current recreation use, including 

commercial services, are largely limited and localized. The most meaningful criteria for 

evaluating effects to wilderness are to use effects in established campsites or other 

recreation areas. The Forest Service has many regulations to limit unwanted ecological 

effects from recreation in wilderness; including prohibitions on damaging vegetation, trail 

construction, littering, caching supplies, grazing, hitching, or hobbling any pack or saddle 

animals within 200 feet of lake shores, to name a few. The forest plans also have 

established party size limits and campsite size and condition standards and guidelines. The 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-26 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

terms and conditions of special use permits further control actions by outfitter-guides, and 

establish consequences for non-compliance. These actions help cumulatively limit 

unwanted ecological effects, but it is still reasonable to use effects at established campsites 

as the primary evaluation tool for capacity because these are the effects most sensitive to 

the opportunities for solitude quality of wilderness character. 

Wilderness character will remain on a stable or upward trend if no new campsites are

established. If use was evenly distributed every night, the capacity of each wilderness 

would be the average party size multiplied by the number of sites. Since use is never 

evenly distributed, the threshold is the number of people who could occupy half the 

existing campsites. This is a conservative threshold to account for the fact that use is not 

evenly distributed, and some areas are more popular than others. The threshold will 

minimize or eliminate the possibility of a party reaching their destination and having to 

camp in a new site because the existing ones are occupied. This also helps meet the forest 

plan standards specifying that there should be an 80% probability of two or fewer 

campsites being visible or audible from any campsite. The maximum amount of use that 

can occur without exceeding this threshold is calculated for each wilderness in the 

following sections.

Pasayten

There are approximately 637 established campsites in the Pasayten Wilderness. The 

threshold is that no more than 319 of these are occupied on any given night. The 

average party size in the Pasayten is 2.68 adults and 2.62 children (Burns et al, 2009), 

rounded to 7 people. Multiplying 319 by 7 give the people at one time (PAOT) capacity:

250 campsites x 7 people/campsite = 2,233 PAOT

The length of the season is approximately 120 days, so multiplying the PAOT by length 

of season will calculate the maximum amount of use (in visitor days) that can occur 

without exceeding the threshold:

2,233 PAOT/day x 120 days/season = 267,960 visitor days per season

The current number of visitor days (outfitted and non-outfitted) is approximately 

18,700. This suggests that current use is below the level that could lead to creation of 

new campsites, and within the biophysical capacity for the Pasayten. This is supported 

by the current resource conditions. The resource conditions in the Pasayten were 

thoroughly evaluated during the analysis of a proposal to issue 10-year outfitter-guide 

permits to the existing stock outfitters. Refer to the Stock Outfitter-Guide Special Use 

Permit Issuance, Final Environmental Impact Statement, 2012, and the corresponding 

resource reports for detailed information. In summary, the resource specialists found 

concentrated areas of impact around campsites, but overall, the condition of the 

resources were pristine. Keeping use below approximately 267,960 visitor days per year 

should avoid degradation from additional area being impacted by recreation activities.

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth

There are approximately 338 established campsites in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth 

Wilderness. The threshold is that no more than 169 of these are occupied on any given 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-27 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

night. The average party size in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth is 2.6 adults and 2.14 

children (Burns et al, 2010), rounded to 5 people. Multiplying 169 by 5 give the people 

at one time (PAOT) capacity:

169 campsites x 5 people/campsite = 845 PAOT

The length of the season is approximately 120 days, so multiplying the PAOT by length 

of season will calculate the maximum amount of use (in visitor days) that can occur 

without exceeding the threshold:

845 PAOT/day x 120 days/season = 101,400 visitor days per season

The current number of visitor days (outfitted and non-outfitted) is approximately 

36,600, which is below the calculated capacity. Approximately half of the current visitor 

days are day use, and the threshold is tied to campsite occupation. The approximate 

number of people camping in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth is 18,300 visitor days, so the 

existing use is below the level that would lead to creation of new campsites. For day 

use, the number of encounters is a potential limiting factor. As stated previously, the 

data collected for encounters indicate that use is consistent with forest plan standards 

and guidelines. This is supported by data collected for the 2009 Wilderness Use Study, 

which found that, on average, visitors saw four other groups during their trips (Burns et 

al, 2010). Considering campsite occupancy and encounters, the current level of use is 

below the biophysical capacity at this time. Encounter frequency will need to be closely 

monitored to determine when the combined day and overnight use approaches 

exceeding forest plan standards and guidelines.

The analysis of resource conditions supports the conclusion that current use is below 

capacity, although there are areas where use appears to be closer to capacity. The 

resource conditions in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth were also thoroughly evaluated during 

the analysis for the 10-year outfitter-guide permits to the existing stock outfitters. Refer 

to the Stock Outfitter-Guide Special Use Permit Issuance, Final Environmental Impact 

Statement, 2012, and the corresponding resource reports for detailed information. In 

summary, the resource specialists found concentrated areas of impact around 

campsites, but overall, wilderness character is not being degraded by the recreation 

activities because of the effects are limited and localized. If the number of overnight 

campers stays below approximately 101,400 visitor days per year, there is a low 

probability of new adverse impacts to wilderness character. 

The threshold and calculation for maximum amount of use was further refined by 

identifying the areas of concern (analysis areas). This follows the suggestion that capacity 

can be further refined by dividing the wildernesses into analysis areas (Cole and Carlson, 

2009). These are typically areas defined by a specific trail, or by a geographical boundary, 

such as a watershed. The maximum amount of use can be calculated for each analysis 

area, and compared to existing use levels and resource conditions. 

Monitoring has highlighted geographic areas where resource conditions are more impacted 

by recreation use in the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, and where use may be closer 

to capacity. The Forest Service does not have existing use data that is specific to these 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-28 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

analysis areas for comparison to capacity calculations. Therefore, capacity calculations for 

each entire wilderness are the most useful. The capacity calculation is a ball-park number 

that managers can use to alert them to the risk of possible additional adverse impacts to 

wilderness character from higher use. By watching overall use numbers in comparison to 

the calculated capacity, and continuing to closely monitor resource conditions in these 

analysis areas (and new ones that are identified), the Forest Service will be able to 

determine if analysis area capacity is being exceeded. Outfitter-guide activities may need 

to be limited in these areas at some point in the future to ensure that the activities do not 

degrade the wilderness character. These analysis areas are described below. 

Pasayten Analysis Areas

There are areas within the Pasayten where use is higher, and there is a higher density of 

established campsites. Outfitter-guide activities may need to be limited in these areas 

in the future if monitoring shows that the recreational activities are causing more 

intense or widespread adverse impacts to any of the four qualities of wilderness 

character; untrammeled, natural, undeveloped, or opportunities for solitude and 

primitive or unconfined recreation. 

Lakes in the vicinity of Harts Pass and the Pacific Crest Trail

Silver Lake, Buckskin Lake, Ferguson Lake, Fred Lake, and Doris Lake are all popular 

destinations with limited campsites. They are frequently used by non-outfitted 

backpackers and/or stock users. Full-service stock outfitter camps may not be 

appropriate at the lakes, and stock drop camps and outfitter backpacking camps 

need to coordinated to avoid proportionally occupying too many sites, not leaving 

campsites for non-outfitted recreationists. 

Hidden Lakes

Hidden Lakes are located along the Hidden Lakes trail, beginning at the Billygoat 

Trailhead. The lakes are located in a narrow valley, with approximately five 

campsites around the lakes. The only graze in the area is located up Stub Creek, 

which flows into the Middle Hidden Lake. Recommend limiting the number of 

outfitter camps at any one time to ensure campsites will be available to nonoutfitted recreationists.

Crow and Corral Lakes/Sheep Mountain Area

Crow and Corral lakes are located along the Larch Creek Trail, which begins at the 

Billygoat Trailhead. The trail continues to Sheep Mountain after passing the lakes. 

There is an existing assigned site for a stock outfitter-guide at Corral Lake, and 

another on Sheep Mountain. These assigned sites are for the exclusive use of the 

outfitter-guides, and typically have a camp set up all season long. It is recommended 

that no more assigned sites be established in this vicinity to keep camping areas 

open for non-outfitted use.

Spanish Camp

The Spanish Camp area is reached by the Andrews Creek Trail, beginning at the 

Andrews Creek Trailhead. It includes Remmel Lake, Cathedral Peak, and Bald 

Mountain. There are two assigned sites for stock outfitter-guides in the area. This is 

one of the most popular areas in the Pasayten all season for non-outfitted 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-29 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

recreationists, and is especially popular during high hunt in September. Use 

approaches capacity during this time of year because encounters are more frequent, 

and established campsites are often used. Recommend not establishing another 

assigned site in the Spanish Camp or Amphitheater area to avoid additional campsite 

creation, and to protect the opportunities for solitude in the area.

Black Lake

Black Lake is located approximately 4 miles from the Lake Creek Trailhead, along the 

Lake Creek Trail. It is a very popular day-use site for non-outfitted recreationists. 

Bull trout, a federally listed threatened species, live in the lake. There is CFR 

prohibiting camping with pack animals within 1⁄2 mile of the lake shore. There are a 

very limited number of campsites. Recommend not allowing outfitter-guide camps 

at Black Lake on weekends and holidays between and including Memorial Day and 

Labor Day.

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Analysis Areas

As in the Pasayten, some areas in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth have higher levels of use, 

and resource conditions that are more susceptible to damage from recreation activities. 

The Lake Chelan-Sawtooth spans the geographic mountain divide between the Methow 

and Chelan watersheds. The destination lakes in the Chelan watershed are clustered 

near the divide in an area characterized by south-facing slopes, with scattered clumps of 

trees among large open meadows. The portion of the wilderness in the Methow 

watershed is roughly divided between north and south facing slopes, with more deeply 

incised drainages (compared to the upper elevation destinations on the Chelan side) 

around the tributaries to the Twisp River. 

Many of the destination lakes are located in small basins in the Twisp River watershed 

with limited flat ground and graze, and accessed by one-way trails offering no loop 

opportunities to other areas. In comparison, there is more graze for stock animals, and 

more flat, open areas for campsites on the upper slopes of the Chelan side than in the 

Twisp River drainage. Since nearly all the trails into the wilderness begin along the 

Twisp River from roadways, use is more highly concentrated in this area than from the 

Lake Chelan boat-in trailheads. The steep slopes, limited flat ground, and little graze 

coupled with the higher use has lead to more impacts, and more specific areas of 

concerns on the Twisp side. These are described below.

Oval Lakes

West, East, and Middle Oval lakes are accessed by the Oval Lakes Trail, beginning at 

the Eagle/Oval Trailhead along the Twisp River. There is a CFR prohibiting stock 

camping at West Oval Lake. The area around Middle Oval Lake has very little graze, 

and can be quickly overgrazed if large stock parties frequent the area. It is 

recommended that a very limited number of stock full-service camps be allowed in 

the area. The trips should not be back-to-back, but separated in time to allow the 

graze to recover. A controlled number of drop camps could be supported since stock 

do not remain in drop camps, and graze availability is not an issue. 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-30 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

North Lake and Surrounding Area

North Lake is accessed by the North Lake Trail that begins at the Gilbert Trailhead on 

the Twisp River. It is a very popular day-trip destination, and an easy hike or ride. 

There are a limited number of campsites. Since it receives higher levels of use by 

non-outfitted visitors, it is recommended that approval for outfitter-guides (hiking or 

stock) camps be made on a case-by-case basis considering time of year, number of 

clients, camp location, and other factors. 

Twisp Pass

Twisp Pass is another popular day-trip destination and is along the Twisp Pass Trail, 

which also leaves from the Gilbert Trailhead. It has very few camping spots, and very 

little appropriate graze. The Pass is approximately 3.5 miles from the trailhead. It is 

recommended that no outfitter-guides be allowed to camp at Twisp Pass.

Louis Lake

Louis Lake is located approximately 5 miles from the South Creek Trailhead. There 

are a very limited number of campsites, and not alternative camps in the area away 

from the lake. There is also little graze. It is a popular destination, and the campsites 

are often full on weekends and holidays. It is recommended that no full-service

stock outfitter-guide camps be allowed at the lake, and drop camps be approved on 

a case-by-case basis.

Williams Lake

Williams Lake is located approximately 7 miles from the Williams Creek Trailhead. 

There are a limited number of campsites, but graze is available. Recommendation is 

to allow drop camps, with full-service camps being approved on a case-by-case basis.

Libby Lake

Libby Lake is approximately 6 miles from the trailhead. The last 1⁄2 mile of trail 

leading to the lake is not recommended for stock due to a large rock creating an 

unsafe tread. The area around the lake is not suitable for stock due to fragile

vegetation. Recommendation is to not allow stock outfitter-guide camps.

Star Lake, Tuckaway Lake, Bernice Lake, and Surprise Lake

These areas are too small to allow stock outfitter-guide camps because of limited 

graze and popularity with non-outfitted users. Recommendation is full-service 

camps not be allowed. A controlled number of drop camps could be supported, 

however stock are not allowed in lake-side camps.

Social Capacity

Social capacity is determined by contacting people using the wilderness, or concerned 

about the wilderness, and getting a sense of satisfaction level for items such as 

crowding, encounters with other groups, interactions with others, resource condition, 

and other factors. The Forest Service used the results documented in the 2009 

Wilderness Use Study (Burns, et al., 2010) in determining this social capacity. The 

findings are summarized below.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-31 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

The Forest Service also gathered input during scoping of proposals to issue 10-year, 

priority use permits to stock and backpacking outfitter guides. These comments are also 

summarized below.

Finally, the Forest Service conducted encounter studies to evaluate compliance with the 

Forest Plan standard and guideline on the number of encounters per day. 

The results of these three information groups show that the current amount of use is 

well within the social capacity for both wildernesses. In general, people do not feel 

crowded, and feel the wilderness areas are in good condition. Some people disagree 

with the management, or have conflicts, but based on the results of the 2009 

Wilderness Use Study, these people are a small minority of visitors overall.

2009 Wilderness Use Study

The social capacity of a wilderness is determined by talking to people visiting the 

wilderness to understand the level of satisfaction on a number of issues, such as 

crowding, condition of the resources, and interactions with others. These factors are 

very subjective, and vary from person to person depending on their expectations, 

past experiences, and personalities. The Forest Service typically hears most 

frequently from people who are unhappy or dissatisfied with their experience. The 

people who are happy with their trip usually do not contact the Forest Service. This 

can lead to a perception that most people disagree with the management of the 

wilderness, and with those they encounter on their trip. To give a balanced voice to 

all visitors, the Forest Service contracted with the research group to conduct a 

monitoring survey to gather and analyze data on these topics.

During the 2009 recreation season, the researchers interviewed people as they 

finished their trips into the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth. They asked 

questions about perceptions of crowding, acceptable number of times to see others, 

reasons for recreating, quality of facilities and services, how others impact their 

experience, and other topics. The responses were combined and analyzed, with the 

results documented in the 2009 Wilderness Use Study (Burns et al., 2010).

The survey found that virtually everyone (97%) reported that they did not have any 

conflicts with other groups during their trip. In addition, 90 to 95% did not feel 

crowded at all or felt only slightly crowded. The feeling of crowds is grounded in a 

person’s expectations, and about three-quarters (72% in the Pasayten and 79% in 

the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth) of the people saw as many or fewer people than they 

expected. Roughly one-half (55% in the Pasayten and 42% in the Lake ChelanSawtooth) of the visitors felt solitude is part of the wilderness experience, while the 

other half (43% in the Pasayten and 48% in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth) felt that they 

did not expect complete solitude and expected to see other people some of the 

time. 

Nearly all of the responders were repeat users – 74% in Pasayten and 91% in Lake 

Chelan-Sawtooth. On a typical year, the average number of visits each person made 

to the National Forest was 18.81 for Pasayten, and 19.71 to the Lake ChelanSawtooth. Almost half (47% in the Pasayten and 40% in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth) 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-32 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

chose to visit the wilderness to enjoy the place itself, while roughly one-third (40% in 

the Pasayten and 35% in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth) went there because it’s a good 

place to do the outdoor activities they enjoy.

When asked if other people increased the enjoyment of the trip, visitors were nearly 

evenly divided between feeling others increased their enjoyment, feeling neutral 

about others, and feeling others decreased their enjoyment. In the Pasayten, 45% of 

the visitors were neutral, 29% agreed or strongly agreed with the statement, and 

26% disagreed or strongly disagreed. In the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, the split was 

similar, with 32% feeling neutral, 34% agreeing or strongly agreeing, and 34% 

disagreeing or strongly disagreeing. 

The condition of the wilderness was evaluated by asking about the balance between 

social and biological values in the management of the wilderness, and the condition 

of the areas. In both wilderness areas, 32% of the visitors had no opinion about the 

balance between social and biological values, while 61% in the Pasayten and 54% in 

the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth felt that wilderness management struck a good balance 

between the values. The majority of visitors (81% in the Pasayten and 87% in the 

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth) thought the wilderness was in good condition. 

David Cole and Troy Hall found similar satisfaction levels when they conducted 

surveys and analyzed the data from wilderness areas around Oregon and 

Washington. In their paper titled Wilderness Visitors and Experiences in Oregon and 

Washington: Trailhead Surveys in Thirteen Forest Service Wildernesses, 2005, they 

reported that most visitors appeared to be highly satisfied with their trip and with 

wilderness conditions. They categorized trailheads into very high use, high use, and 

moderate use, with moderately used trails receiving less than one-third of the use of 

the very high use trails. The differences among visitors to each category of trailhead 

were surprisingly small. It appeared that visitors to more highly used trailheads had 

adjusted their tolerance of other wilderness users. Most knew what conditions they 

were likely to find, adjusted their expectations accordingly, and found their trips 

enjoyable. Most people were able to find solitude, or at least have what they 

considered a real wilderness experience (Cole and Hall, 2005).

Public Scoping

The Forest Service has asked for comments on proposals to issue 10-year permits to 

the existing stock outfitter-guides, and for one of the backpacking outfitter-guides. 

Scoping will be initiated soon for the remaining to backpacking outfitter guides.

No comments were received in response to the backpacking outfitter-guide

proposal. Some people may have concerns about this commercial activity, especially 

within the trailless portions of the wilderness areas, but none who were contacted as 

part of this project scoping voiced concerns.

The Forest Service has received approximately 100 letters in response to scoping for 

the stock outfitter-guides. Some of these letters supported the stock activities, and 

felt the use and resource conditions were acceptable and appropriate for wilderness. 

Over half of the letters expressed concern about stock. The issues raised formed the 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-33 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

cornerstone for the environmental analysis for the proposed permit issuance, and 

are evaluated in detail in the Stock Outfitter-Guide Special Use Permit Issuance Draft 

Environmental Impact Statement (USDA Forest Service, 2010). The letters 

demonstrated that there is both strong support and strong opposition to stock

outfitter-guides, and controversy about whether the effects of the activity are 

acceptable, and in compliance with the Wilderness Act.

Encounter Studies

The Okanogan and Wenatchee Forest Plans have standards addressing social 

capacity by controlling the number of encounters a recreationist should not exceed 

in a day. The Okanogan Forest Plan states that there needs to be an 80% probability 

of not encountering more than one other group per day in management area 15A

(trailless), and not more than 7 in management area 15B (trailed). The Wenatchee

Forest Plan also has these same two levels for pristine and primitive, respectively, 

and includes an 80% probability of not more than 10 groups or individuals traveling 

along in semi-primitive, and not more than 10 to 20 groups or individuals in 

transition areas of wilderness. 

The Forest Service has had backcountry rangers gather encounter data since 2001. 

Rangers record the number of groups they encounter for each section of trail and 

associated destinations. Encounters with previously contacted groups are counted as 

a separate encounter when more than 20 minutes passes between contacts. 

Rangers patrol high use areas more often and are generally scheduled for the busiest 

use periods such as holidays and weekends. Thus their encounter data might be 

slightly skewed to the high end. Data collected in over 1,129 ranger patrol days and 

2,400 encounters indicates that both wilderness areas are meeting Forest Plan 

standards for encounters. 

Since certain portions of each wilderness are more popular, the data was examined 

for different trail and travel corridors to see if standards were being exceeded at 

specific locations. The following tables show data for common trails and travel 

corridors in the two wilderness areas. Some travel corridors include several sections 

of trail in order to best capture typical visitor travel patterns. 

The Wilderness Use Study found that about half of the responders saw other groups 

twice on their trips, and slightly less saw groups 3 to 5 times. The average was 

seeing 4 other groups per trip (Burns et al, 2010).

Pasayten

In the Pasayten, the highest encounter rates occurred on the Pacific Crest Trail, 

and this was the most likely location for a visitor to have more than seven 

encounters. Data for the Pacific Crest Trail may be slightly skewed higher as 

backcountry rangers did not always differentiate encounters on the Pacific Crest 

Trail between the Harts Pass trailhead and Windy Pass which is a popular day hike 

and outside of the wilderness. Other locations that occasionally exceeded seven 

encounters were: the Hidden Lakes, Buckskin Ridge, Boundary Trail, Devils Dome, 

and Pasayten River trails. The highest likelihood of more than seven encounters 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-34 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

generally occurred on weekends and holidays in July, August, and September, but 

also occurred randomly during the week. Trails such as the Pacific Crest Trail, Billy 

Goat, Buckskin Ridge, Chewuch, and Andrews serve as primary access routes into 

the wilderness so it is not uncommon for encounter rates to be higher near the 

trailhead and drop further into the wilderness as people disperse to various 

destinations. Other factors have also influenced the amount and distribution of 

use, which influences encounters. Weather, fire activity, featuring a particular 

trail or trip in the media, can cause an obvious increase or decrease at specific in 

use on a yearly basis on an individual trail. 

Figure B-17. Probability of Encountering Not More Than Seven Parties By Pasayten Travel Corridor.

Travel 

Corridors/Trails

Trail 

Numbers

Patrol 

days

Total 

Encounters

Days exceeding 

seven 

encounters

Probability of 

encountering 

more than seven 

groups

West Fork Pasayten 472 9 24 0 0%

Hidden Lakes 477, 458 405 647 2 0%

Robinson, Mainstem 

& Middle Fork 

Pasayten River

478, 474, 

451

78 144 1 1%

Monument Creek 484 3 2 0 0%

Tatoosh Buttes 485 21 32 0 0%

Buckskin Ridge 498 28 65 1 4%

Lake Creek 500 25 78 0 0%

Larch Creek Trails 502, 502A 88 173 0 0%

Andrews Creek 504 103 196 0 0%

Chewuch 510, 360 71 118 0 0%

Crystal Lakes 517 2 6 0 0%

Boundary Trail 533 136 243 1 1%

Devils Dome, 

Canyon Creek

752, 738, 

754

27 49 1 4%

Pacific Crest Trail 2000, 472A, 

473

70 279 9 13%

Lake Chelan – Sawtooth

The Lake Chelan-Sawtooth receives more day use than the Pasayten. Popular 

destinations include: South Creek, North Lake, Louis Lake and Twisp Pass. The 

highest likelihood of more than eight encounters generally occurs on weekends 

and holidays in July, August and September. As in the Pasayten, there are many 

factors influencing amount and distribution of use, which influences encounters. 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-35 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Weather, fire activity, or featuring a particular trail or trip in the media, can cause 

an obvious increase or decrease in use on a yearly basis on an individual trail. 

Figure B-18. Probability of Encountering Not More Than Seven Parties By Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Travel 

Corridor.

Travel Corridors/Trails Trail 

Numbers

Patrol 

days

Total 

Encounters

Days exceeding 

seven 

encounters

Probability of 

encountering more 

than seven groups

South Creek 401 9 12 0 0%

Reynolds Creek 402 1 0 0 0%

Williams Lake 407 16 12 0 0%

War Creek 408 12 49 0 0%

West Fork Buttermilk 411 6 4 0 0%

North Lake 413 22 61 1 5%

Slate Lake 414 1 0 0 0%

Libby Lake 415 6 2 0 0%

East Fork Buttermilk 420 4 1 0 0%

Copper Pass 426 9 10 0 0%

Scatter Lake 427 10 22 0 0%

Louis Lake 428 13 42 1 8%

Twisp Pass 432 18 97 0 0%

Wolf Creek 527 3 35 0 0%

Scaffold Ridge 436 18 97 0 0%

Summit Trail 1259 18 97 0 0%

5. EXTENT OF COMMERCIAL SERVICES NECESSARY AND ALLOCATION OF USE

The Wilderness Act prohibits commercial activities, except to the extent necessary for 

realizing the recreational or other purposes of the wilderness area. This step determines the 

minimum extent necessary and the allocation of use that will be specified for commercial 

services.

The minimum amount of commercial services needed to provide for recreation is not a 

number that can be precisely calculated. Rather, several factors are considered to establish a 

range of service days that would provide the minimum extent of commercial service. The 

factors include:

need for commercial services, 

historic number of service days,

proportional relationship between outfitter and non-outfitted use levels,
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-36 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

current resource conditions and impacts from recreation use on wilderness character,

wilderness capacity, and 

anticipated changes in overall number of recreationists and need for outfitter guides,

demographics.

Need

The Forest Service has a need for the two existing types of commercial services: pack and 

saddle stock and backpacking/wilderness education in order to provide for wilderness 

appropriate recreation, based on the analysis of need discussed earlier in this document. 

Most people go into the wilderness on their own, without an outfitter-guide. An element 

of the population does choose to hire an outfitter-guide due to lack of skill, knowledge, or 

equipment, physical limitations, or other reasons. Some people who hire outfitter guides 

do so out of legitimate need, while others do so for convenience, or the desire to have 

more supplies with them than they could carry. Data does not exist that could be used to 

generate or calculate the percentage of clients who have a legitimate need. 

Direction for disclosing incomplete or unavailable information in an environmental impact 

statement is found in 40 CFR 1502.22. The means to obtain the percentage of clients who 

have a legitimate need for commercial services are not known. There are too many 

variables, such as how much skill or knowledge is enough to no longer need an outfitter, 

or what income level would be adequate to afford the specialized equipment, or what 

physical conditions, or a combination of these factors, would make hiking or backpacking 

impossible or impractical. The answer to such questions would be different for every 

person. 

No reasonably foreseeable significant adverse impacts on the human or biological 

environment were found in evaluating the direct, indirect, or cumulative effects of 

commercial services in either the Pasayten or Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wildernesses. 

Therefore, determining the exact number or percentage of past use legitimately needing 

commercial services is not necessary. Refer to the earlier discussion concerning the social 

capacity, and the environmental analysis included in the Pack and Saddle Stock OutfitterGuide Special Use Permit Final Environmental Impact Statement, 2013, for complete 

analysis, including summaries of existing credible scientific evidence relevant to 

evaluating reasonably foreseeable impacts, and scientific methodology used. Lacking 

specific information about the number of clients with legitimate need would not have 

catastrophic consequences since no significant impacts would occur. Therefore the 

Forest Service must consider other factors to determine if historic service day levels are a 

reasonable reflection of the minimum extent necessary. 

Historic Service Day Levels

The range of years used for this determination was from 2001 to 2011. There has been a 

decline in outfitter guide service days in the past five years, but the reason for that 

decline in unknown. As discussed earlier in this document, the decline may be a result of 

wildfires, the downturn in the economy, decreased demand, or other factors. The eleven 

year span was selected in case the factors affecting the use change, and the need 

increases to the levels seen earlier in the 11-year span.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-37 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

The lowest number of service days, or an average number for range of years cannot be 

used in the minimum extent necessary determination. The number of people needing the 

services of an outfitter-guide will vary from year-to-year, and may be influenced by 

outside factors such as wildfires, so the minimum extent of commercial services allowed 

needs to be large enough to cover the years with the largest need. 

The highest number of hiker/backpacker outfitter-guide service days in the Pasayten 

Wilderness was 2,984 in 1999, and the highest number of stock service days was 1,677 in 

2002. In the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, the highest hiker/backpacker days were 1,397 in 

2009, and 662 stock service days in 2003. These figures are displayed in Figures 21 and 22

below. 

Proportional Relationship Between Outfitted and Non-outfitted Use Levels

Calculating the percentage of overall use that matches the past need for services is based 

on the current estimate of total visitor days and the highest past use. The information 

generated from the 2005 NVUM information (USDA Forest Service, 2012b) is the best 

available information concerning use levels. Therefore, these estimates are used as the 

current annual visitor day totals.

Comparing the current visitor day totals to the highest historic use levels displayed above, 

approximately 25% of overall use is outfitted in the Pasayten Wilderness5, and 

approximately 6% in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth.

6

Figure B-19. Current Number of Visitor days by User Group in the Pasayten, and Highest Need 2001 

through 2011

User Group Total Visitor 

days*

Highest Need 

2001 - 2011

% of Total Visitor 

Days

Backpackers 13,090 2,984 23%

Stock Users 5,610 1,677 30%

TOTAL 18,700 4,661 25%

Figure B-20. Current Number of Visitor days by User Group in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, and 

Highest Need Over Past 11 Years

User Group Total Visitor 

days*

Outfitterguide Service 

Days

% of Total Visitor 

Days

Backpackers 23,790 1,397 6%

Stock Users 12,810 662 5%

TOTAL 36,600 2,059 6%

Current Resource Conditions and Impacts on Wilderness Character

The analysis of the impact of existing recreation use (including outfitter-guides) on 

wilderness character has shown that there are localized impacts to the opportunities for 

solitude, but these are not interfering with the current upward trend in wilderness 

character for the Pasayten or Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wildernesses. Refer to the Pack and 

Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide Special Use Permit Issuance Final Environmental Impact 

 

5

4,651 days/17,000 days = 0.273 or 27%

6

1,800 days/56,332 days = 0.032 or 3%
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-38 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Statement, 2012 for the complete analysis. Current conditions meet or exceed the

expectations of the vast majority of wilderness visitors (Burns, et al, 2010). 

Wilderness Capacity

The capacity analysis for the Pasayten found that the existing amount of use (18,700

visitor days) is within the biophysical and social capacities (267,960 visitor days), with 

some areas needing closer monitoring and restrictions to ensure that the wilderness 

character is not degraded. Refer to page 29 and 30 for calculations.

The capacity analysis for the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth found that the existing amount of use 

(36,600 visitor days, of which approximately 18,300 are overnight visitors) is within the 

social capacity of the wilderness (101,400 visitor days). Use levels are below the 

maximum amount to keep effects below the threshold of no new campsites established, 

since the number of overnight visitor days is below the capacity. The resource condition 

analysis found isolated impacts, but overall pristine resource condition. Existing use levels 

were determined to be within capacity, but likely near the upper end of the acceptable 

range. At this time, outfitter-guide service days must be conservatively allocated until 

future monitoring confirms or refutes the capacity calculations. Refer to pages 30 and 31 

for calculations.

Anticipated Changes in Need and Demand

As stated earlier in this document, there will be increasing demand for recreation in the 

coming years. The technical report Outdoor Recreation in the Pacific Northwest and 

Alaska: Trends in Activity Participation (Hall et al, 2009) and Washington State’s 

Interagency Committee on Outdoor recreation (Interagency Committee on Outdoor 

Recreation, 2003) both predict the increase. The Interagency Committee estimates that 

there will be a 13% increase in the number of people hiking and backing, and a 3% 

increase in the number of people riding horses in the year 2022 (Interagency Committee 

on Outdoor Recreation, 2003). These projections are used to estimate the number of 

people who will be recreating in the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth ten years from 

now.

Figure B-21. Current Number of Visitor days by User Group in the Pasayten, Estimated Increase, and 

Future Number of Visitor Days.

User Group Current Visitor 

Days

Estimated 

Future 

Increase

Estimated 

Number of Visitor 

Days in 2022

Backpackers 13,090 13% 14,792

Stock Users 5,610 3% 5,778

TOTAL 18,700 20,570

*Includes current outfitter-guide service days
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-39 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Figure B-22. Current Number of Visitor days by User Group in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth, Estimated 

Increase, and Future Number of Visitor Days.

User Group Current Visitor 

Days

Estimated 

Future 

Increase

Estimated 

Number of Visitor 

Days in 2022

Backpackers 23,790 13% 26,883

Stock Users 12,810 3% 13,194

TOTAL 36,600 40,077

*Includes current outfitter-guide service days

Demographics

The demographics of the population of people coming to the Pasayten and Lake ChelanSawtooth wilderness areas help identify the minimum extent of commercial services 

needed to provide visitors access to the wilderness. One statistic to consider is the age of 

the visitors. Assuming that as people age, they are less able to backpack long distances, 

an aging visitor population may have an increasing need for stock outfitter guides. On the 

other hand, younger people with little to no wilderness camping experience might need 

outfitter services as well. Having outfitter-guides for stock and backpacking would help 

make wilderness trips more feasible for these demographic groups. 

Demographic information about visitors to the district was gathered and compiled in the 

2005 NVUM report (USDA Forest Service 2012b). The report divided wilderness visits into 

age ranges from “under 16”, “16 to 19”, “20 to 29”, “30 to 39”, and so forth. The highest 

percentage of visits (33%) fell in the “50 to 59” age range, with the lowest percentages in 

the “under 16” and “30-39” age ranges (0.6% and 0.9% respectively). The number of 

visits was roughly split between people up to the age of 49 (45%), and those over 50 

(55%). 

The age class distribution of existing outfitter-guide clients shows that the majority of 

backpacking outfitter-guide clients are under the age of 29, while the majority of stock 

outfitter-guide clients are over the age of 50.

The following table shows the age ranges and percent of visits.

Figure B-23. Percent of Total Wilderness Visits and Outfitter-guide Clients by Age Class

Age Class Percent of Total 

Wilderness Visits

(NVUM)

Percent of 

Backpacking OG 

Clients

Percent of Stock 

OG Clients

Under 16 1% 14% 3%

16-19 4% 36% 8%

20-29 23% 43% 1%

30-39 1% 4% 2%

40-49 17% 2% 12%

50-59 33% 1% 24%

60-69 15% <1% 41%

70+ 7% 0% 8%

The Washington State Office of Fiscal Management tracks the population of the state, and 

how the composition of age classes is shifting over time. The following table displays the 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-40 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

current population distribution across the age classes, compared to the projected 

distribution in 2020. As is shown, the age class distribution is shifting into the older age 

classes. The number of people in the 60-69 age range will increase approximately 40%

7

, 

and those 70 years and older will increase 46%8(Washington State Office Fiscal 

Management, 2010) by the year 2020. The Washington State Interagency Committee for 

Outdoor Recreation discusses projected changes in populations in the 2003 “Estimates of 

Future Participation in Outdoor Recreation in Washington State”, (IAC, 2003). One of the 

key considerations in projecting changes in the number of people participating in various 

outdoor recreation activities is age. Physical demands of various activities, such as 

backpacking, will discourage people from participating as they age (IAC, 2003). 

Figure B-24. Percent Change in Number of People is Age Classes in 2010 and 2020 

Age Class Number of People in 

2010

Projected Number in 2020 Percent Change

Under 15 1,311,555 1,517,032 16%

15-19 464,155 478,724 3%

20-29 966,978 1,014,958 5%

30-39 883,849 1,098,567 24%

40-49 959,344 935,360 -3%

50-59 947,648 967,301 2%

60-69 643,504 903,726 40%

70+ 556,217 809,712 46%

Total 6,733,250 7,725,380 15%

(Washington State Office Fiscal Management, 2010)

As shown in Figure 3, approximately 73% of stock outfitter-guide clients are 50 years old 

or older. This age class is more dependent on stock to travel into the wilderness and 

more likely to use an outfitter-guide service due to a combination of physical limitations, 

more leisure time, and higher income levels. The relatively large predicted increase in the 

number of people over the age of 50 in Washington state (refer to Figure 4) indicates that 

there will likely be a corresponding increase in the number of people and the percentage 

of visitors who will require the service of stock outfitters guides for trips into the Pasayten 

and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth wilderness areas. The largest increases will be in people 60 

years old and older. Therefore, the need for stock outfitter-guides will likely increase in 

the coming years at a substantially faster rate than the general activity increases 

projected by the Washington State Interagency Committee on Outdoor Recreation, 2003.

Although only a small percentage of people over 50 years old actually take trips into the 

wilderness, it is safe to assume that the number of people in that age class that do so 

could increase at a rate that matches the rates of increase in the general population –

approximately 25%9. 

Conversely, approximately 87% of backpacking clients are between 16 and 29 years old 

(refer to Figure 3). The number of people in this age class will increase approximately 4% 

 

7

(903,726 people - 643,504 people)/643,504 people = 0.40, or 40%

8

(809,712 people - 556,217 people)/ 556,217 people = 0.456, or 46%

9

(967,301 + 903,726 + 809,712)–(947,648 + 643,504 + 556,217)/(947,648 + 643,504 + 556,217) = 0.248 or 

25% 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-41 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

by 2020 (refer to Figure 4)10. Figure 3 also shows that approximately 28% of all wilderness 

visitors are under the age of 30. 

The number of young people recreating outdoors has been declining for the past two 

decades, and many of these young Americans seem to be losing connection with vast 

natural resources owned by the American people. To combat this, President Obama 

launched the Great Outdoor Initiative in 2010. One of the goals of this initiative is to 

reconnect Americans, especially children, to America’s national forests. Since 

backpacking outfitter-guides target most of their services towards young people, allowing 

for growth in these companies will accommodate this growing number of young people to 

allow them to experience opportunities for solitude and primitive or unconfined 

recreation. This will allow young people to gain an appreciation for, and understanding of 

wilderness.

Most of the backpacking outfitter-guide clients are under the age of 30 (87% of clients). 

This portion of the population is expected to increase 4% by 2020. The minimum amount 

of these commercial services needed to provide for wilderness recreation by reconnecting 

young people to the outdoors through wilderness recreation could be approximately 15% 

above the estimated 13% increase in hiking and backpacking. This modest increase would 

help foster understanding and appreciation for wilderness by increasing the number of 

young adults experiencing “opportunities for solitude or primitive and unconfined 

recreation” and supporting the American Great Outdoors initiative (2010-2011 

americasgreatoutdoors.gov).

Minimum Extent Necessary Determination

The minimum extent necessary range is displayed below for both the Pasayten and Lake 

Chelan-Sawtooth, by the two major categories of transportation, hiking (includes hiking and 

backpacking) and using stock. The official allocation of service days to outfitter-guides, and 

the analysis of potential resource effects must be covered in the appropriate NEPA 

document. The results in this document are merely recommendations.

The minimum extent necessary range was determined following these steps:

1. Identify highest actual use in the past 11 years. Although it is likely that some of these 

clients did not have legitimate need for the outfitter-guide service, it is also likely that 

some required the services of an outfitter-guide to experience the opportunities for 

solitude and primitive or unconfined recreation offered in wilderness. There is no data 

concerning what percentage falls into which category. Lacking any supporting data, the 

highest use number will be used as the starting point for the minimum extent necessary 

determination, and considered the current need. 

2. Determine the percentage of use that is the existing need by comparing the current 

need to current total recreation visitor days. 

 

10 (1,014,958 + 478,724)-(966,978 + 464,155)/(966,978 + 464,155) = 0.044, or 4%
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-42 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

3. Determine the number of total recreation days expected in 2020 by expanding the 

current total recreation visitor days by the Washington State Interagency Committee on 

Outdoor Recreation projections of increase in recreation use.

4. For the low end of the range, multiply the percent current need to the future number of 

visitor days.

5. For the high end of the range for stock outfitter-guides, increase the low end figure by 

25% to account for the anticipated increases in recreation visitors over the age of 60

and a higher percentage from outside the area. These groups would more likely need 

the services of a stock outfitter guide.

6. For the high end of the range for hiker/backpacker outfitter-guides, increase the low 

end figure by 15% to increase opportunities for young adults to experience and gain an 

appreciation of wilderness in response to the American Great Outdoors initiative. 

Figure B-25. Minimum Extent Necessary Calculations for Pasayten Wilderness

Activity A

Current 

Need

B

Current 

Total Use

C

% of total 

use

(A/B)

D

Future Total 

Use

(From Figure 23)

E

Range 

Low End

(C x D)

F

Range High 

End

(Hiking: E x 1.15)

(Stock: E x 1.25)

Hiking 2,984 13,090 23% 14,792 3,402, 

rounded 

to 3,400

3,910

Stock 1,677 5,610 30% 5,778 1,733, 

rounded 

to 1,735

2,169, rounded 

to 2,170

Figure B-26. Minimum Extent Necessary Calculations for Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wilderness

Activity A

Current 

Need

B

Current 

Total Use

C

% of total 

use

(A/B)

D

Future Total 

Use

(From Figure 24)

E

Range 

Low End

(C x D)

F

Range High 

End

(Hiking: E x 1.15)

(Stock: E x 1.25)

Hiking 1,397 23,810 6% 26,883 1,613, 

rounded 

to 1,615

1,857, rounded 

to 1,860

Stock 662 12,820 5% 13,194 660 825

Priority and Temporary Use Pools

Outfitter-guide special use permits are either “priority” or “temporary”. Priority special use 

permits are issued for recurring activities, and typically have multi-year terms (such as 5 or 

10 years). These permits are structured such that a certain number of days is allotted to 

each permit as priority use days – days guaranteed annually to the permit holder. The 

handbook direction also allows creation of a pool of service days that can be held in reserve, 

and assigned on an as-needed basis to allow outfitters extra days if bookings exceed assigned 

priority use days. These days return to the pool at the end of each season, making them 

available to outfitters who need them the following season. 
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-43 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Temporary use is defined as non-recurring use. Days in a temporary use pool are available 

for outfitters wanting to guide a one-time trip, or a series of non-recurring trips within the 

same season. The days are returned to the pool at the end of each season, and distributed 

the following year based on applications for use. Days can be shifted between the priority 

and temporary use pools depending on demand.

Pools are very useful in managing commercial activities in wilderness because they help 

ensure that an adequate number of service days are available during years when the need is 

high, without inflating the number of priority use days assigned to individual outfitter-guides 

in an attempt to cover the need. By assigning a conservative number of priority use service 

days to outfitter-guides, the Forest Service can keep the number of guaranteed service days 

to a minimum, but still be able to assign days on an as-needed basis to cover the peaks in 

need, in both priority and temporary special use permits.

The following table recommends the number of priority use days to be assigned to priority 

use permit holders, the number to be kept in the priority use pool, and the number to be 

placed in the temporary use pool. These recommendations must be adjusted whenever 

necessary to respond to changing conditions, either resource or outfitter-guide business 

structures.

Figure B-27. Recommended Distribution of Service Days Between Priority and Temporary Use By 

Activity and Range in the Pasayten

Outfitter-Guide 

Activity

Range Number of 

Service Days in 

Range

Service Days 

Allocated as 

Priority Use 

Days

Service Days 

in Priority 

Use Pool

Service Days 

in Temporary 

Use Pool

Backpacking Low 3,400 3,150 150 100

High 3,910 3,150 560 200

Stock Low 1,730 1,550 180 0*

High 2,160 1,550 610 0*

* Tight administration of stock outfitter-guide permits is needed to minimize resource damage, so it is 

recommended that no service days be placed in a temporary use pool for this activity.

Figure B-28. Recommended Distribution of Service Days Between Priority and Temporary Use By 

Activity and Range in the Lake Chelan-Sawtooth

Outfitter-Guide 

Activity

Range Number of 

Service Days 

in Range

Service Days 

Allocated as 

Priority Use 

Days

Service Days 

in Priority 

Use Pool

Service Days 

in Temporary 

Use Pool

Backpacking Low 1,615 1,400 165 50

High 1,860 1,400 360 100

Stock Low 660 500 160 0*

High 825 600 225 0*

* Tight administration of stock outfitter-guide permits is needed to minimize resource damage, so it is 

recommended that no service days be placed in a temporary use pool for this activity.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-44 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

SUMMARY OF NEED AND EXTENT NECESSARY

The quantity of commercial services identified in this assessment has been determined to be 

needed and will not impair wilderness character. Considerations include:

Desired Condition and Management Objectives of the Area Found in the Forest Plans

The desired future condition and management objectives for the Pasayten and Lake ChelanSawtooth wilderness areas are included in the Okanogan and Wenatchee Forest Plans (USDA, 

1989b, and USDA, 1990). The desired conditions are areas with unmodified or predominately 

unmodified primitive environments. The standards and guidelines insure a non-degradation 

approach to wilderness management and activities by controlling activities that could impact 

the untrammeled, undeveloped, and natural qualities of wilderness, and the opportunities for 

solitude or primitive and unconfined recreation.

Defined Analysis Areas and the Existing Conditions

The overall condition of both the Pasayten and Lake Chelan-Sawtooth has been on an upward 

trend since the time of designation (1964 and 1984 for the Pasayten, 1984 for the Lake ChelanSawtooth). The elimination of commercial livestock grazing and establishment of forest plan 

standards and guidelines (including but not limited to party-size limitations) have improved 

wilderness character by reducing existing or potential impacts to the untrammeled, natural, and 

undeveloped qualities, and improving opportunities for solitude by reducing impacts to existing 

campsites. The current amount of recreation use (including the outfitter-guide use included in 

this document) is having localized, limited adverse impacts to the opportunities to solitude, but 

when considered cumulatively with other actions, wilderness character is improving across the 

areas. The following analysis areas have been identified as areas where use levels are higher or 

resource conditions are more fragile. Restrictions on outfitter-guide activities and close 

monitoring is needed to ensure that wilderness character is not adversely impacted:

Pasayten Wilderness

Lakes in the vicinity of Harts Pass and the Pacific Crest Trail

Hidden Lakes

Crow and Corral Lakes/Sheep Mountain Area

Spanish Camp

Black Lake

Lake Chelan-Sawtooth Wilderness

Oval Lakes

North Lake and Surrounding Area

Twisp Pass

Louis Lake

Williams Lake

Libby Lake

Star Lake

Tuckaway Lake

Bernice Lake

Surprise Lake
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-45 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

Indicators or Limiting Factors and When Possible Threshholds May Be Exceeded

Two factors that may indicate that the threshold of nondegradation may be threatened are the 

total number of recreationists and number of established campsites. The calculated capacity of 

the Pasayten Wilderness is 267,960 visitor days, and 101,400 visitor days in the Lake ChelanSawtooth. These ball-park figures can be used to alert managers when overall use may be 

resulting in new or additional impacts. Continued campsite monitoring will show when the 

number of people camping in an analysis area is exceeding its capacity. The analysis areas listed 

above will be closely watched, and outfitter-guide activities may be further limited in the areas if 

monitoring shows an increased impact to wilderness character

Effects to Wilderness Character 

The effects of stock outfitter-guide use on wilderness character is included in the Stock

Outfitter-Guide Special Use Permit Issuance Final Environmental Impact Statement, 2012

11

. The 

analysis considered impacts to the four qualities of wilderness character: untrammeled, 

undeveloped, natural, and opportunitites for solitude or primitive and unconfined recreation. 

The impacts were evaluated in terms of context, duration and intensity. The effects from the 

existing long-term backpacking and wilderness skills outfitter are included in the 2009 Decision 

Memo for that issuance. Additional analysis will be completed prior to issuing other permits in 

the future.

The analyses for the stock outfitter-guides found that existing recreation use, including the 

minimum amount of outfitter-guide service days included in this Needs Assessment, will have 

limited, localized effects in and around established campsites because of other campsites within 

view and encounters with others. The impacts will not significantly affect opportunities for 

solitude. The impacts will be long-term since campsites will be perpetuated by continued use. 

Recreation use (outfitted and non-outfitted) will not directly or indirectly affect the 

untrammeled or undeveloped qualities of the wilderness character since the use will not 

interfere with wilderness ecosystems, or lead to additional developments in wilderness. The 

natural quality is being impacted where stock grazing are allowed to graze, but these impacts 

are localized and have very little to no impact on the plant communities or wetland ecosystems. 

The stock are also having localized, limited impacts to stream banks and soil where they water 

and congregate, but these effects are having little to no impact on aquatic or riparian habitat, or 

water quality due to the small size and frequency of impact. 

Opportunities for solitude or primitive and unconfined recreation will be provided to those who 

do not have the skill or knowledge to experience wilderness apppropritate recreation. On the 

other hand, opportunities for solitude will be reduced as the overall number of people 

recreating in the wilderness increases over time. While outfitter-guide parties may affect 

solitude, their use will be capped at the level specified in this document. The duration of the 

impacts (beneficial and adverse) to opportunities for solitude from outfitter-guides would equal 

the duration of permitted activity. If outfitter-guides activities cease, impacts will be 

immediately eliminated. 

 

11 The Stock Outfitter-Guide Special Use Permit Issuance Final Environmental Impact Statement, 2012, is 

incorporated by reference.
Pack and Saddle Stock Outfitter-Guide FEIS Appendix B-46 February 2013

Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forest

MONITORING PLAN

Ongoing monitoring is essential to ensure the wilderness areas remain on an upward condition 

trend. The capacity determination in this document must be updated as new information 

becomes available. 

1. Follow the monitoring process detailed in Monitoring Selected conditions Related to 

Wilderness Character: A National Framework, 2005 (Landers, 2005).

2. Monitor use levels by participating in the National Visitor Use Monitoring study every 5 

years. If use numbers begin to reach calculated capacity, increase resource condition 

monitoring to determine if threshold of non-degradation has been crossed.

3. Complete a thorough campsite monitoring exercise to give an accurate count of the 

number of existing campsites and their condition. Use information to determine 

campsite density.

4. Monitor encounters to assess compliance with forest plan standards and guidelines.