March 2014 

NASA/TM–2014-218182 

Selection of Thermal Worst-Case Orbits via 

Modified Efficient Global Optimization 

Timothy M. Moeller and Alan W. Wilhite 

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 

Kaitlin A. Liles 

Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia 
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March 2014 

NASA/TM–2014-218182 

Selection of Thermal Worst-Case Orbits via 

Modified Efficient Global Optimization 

Timothy M. Moeller and Alan W. Wilhite 

Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, Georgia 

Kaitlin A. Liles 

Langley Research Center, Hampton, Virginia 
Available from: 

NASA Center for AeroSpace Information 

7115 Standard Drive 

Hanover, MD 21076-1320 

443-757-5802 

The use of trademarks or names of manufacturers in this report is for accurate reporting and does not 

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National Aeronautics and Space Administration. 
1 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Abstract ......................................................................................................................................................... 3 

Nomenclature ............................................................................................................................................... 3 

1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 4 

2 Background ........................................................................................................................................... 5 

3 Method ................................................................................................................................................. 6 

4 Results ................................................................................................................................................. 10 

4.1 SAGE Mission Success Cases ....................................................................................................... 10 

4.1.1 ELC-4.................................................................................................................................... 10 

4.1.2 EOTP .................................................................................................................................... 13 

4.1.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 16 

4.2 ISS Extreme Cases ....................................................................................................................... 17 

4.2.1 ELC-4.................................................................................................................................... 17 

4.2.2 EOTP .................................................................................................................................... 20 

4.2.3 Summary ............................................................................................................................. 24 

5 Comparison with Previous Worst-Case Orbits.................................................................................... 25 

6 Conclusions ......................................................................................................................................... 39 

References .................................................................................................................................................. 39 

 LIST OF TABLES

Table 1: ISS Beta Angle and Attitude Ranges ................................................................................................ 6 

Table 2: Nodes Considered ........................................................................................................................... 7 

Table 3: Minimum Temperatures during ELC-4 SAGE Mission Success Cases ............................................ 11 

Table 4: SAGE Mission Success ELC-4 Cold Case Temperatures ................................................................. 11

Table 5: Maximum Temperatures during ELC-4 SAGE Mission Success Cases ........................................... 12 

Table 6: SAGE Mission Success ELC-4 Hot Case Temperatures .................................................................. 13

Table 7: Minimum Temperatures during EOTP Cold SAGE Mission Success Cases .................................... 14 

Table 8: SAGE Mission Success EOTP Cold Case Temperatures ................................................................. 14 

Table 9: Maximum Temperatures during EOTP Hot SAGE Mission Success Cases ..................................... 15 

Table 10: SAGE Mission Success EOTP Hot Case Temperatures ................................................................. 16 

Table 11: SAGE Mission Success Worst-Case Orbits ................................................................................... 16 

Table 12: Minimum Temperatures during ELC-4 ISS Extreme Cases .......................................................... 17 

Table 13: ISS Extreme ELC-4 Cold Case Temperatures ............................................................................... 18 

Table 14: Maximum Temperatures during ELC-4 ISS Extreme Cases ......................................................... 19 

Table 15: ISS Extreme ELC-4 Hot Case Temperatures ................................................................................. 19 

Table 16: Minimum Temperatures during EOTP Cold ISS Extreme Cases .................................................. 21 

Table 17: ISS Extreme EOTP Cold Case Temperatures ................................................................................ 21 

Table 18: Maximum Temperatures during EOTP Hot ISS Extreme Cases ................................................... 23 

Table 19: ISS Extreme EOTP Hot Case Temperatures ................................................................................. 24 

Table 20: ISS Extreme Worst-Case Orbits ................................................................................................... 24 

Table 21: ISS Extreme Special Hot and Cold Cases ..................................................................................... 25 

Table 22: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Extreme Hot Op Sci Cases ........................................... 26 
2 

Table 23: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Hot Op Limb Cases ...................................................... 27 

Table 24: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Hot Survival EOTP Cases ............................................. 28 

Table 25: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Cold Op Sci Cases ........................................................ 30 

Table 26: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Cold Survival ELC Cases ............................................... 31 

Table 27: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Cold Survival EOTP Cases ............................................ 32 

Table 28: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Hot Survival ELC Cases ...................................... 33 

Table 29: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Hot Survival EOTP Cases ................................... 35 

Table 30: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Cold Survival ELC Cases .................................... 37 

Table 31: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Cold Survival EOTP Cases .................................. 38 

 LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 1: Solar Occultation Measurement. ................................................................................................... 4 

Figure 2: Limb Scattering Technique............................................................................................................. 4 

Figure 3: SAGE III Instrument Payload (IP). ................................................................................................... 5 

Figure 4: Example of Expected Improvement for unknown test function. .................................................. 9 

Figure 5: Run 58 orbital position (true anomaly = 225°) viewed from the sun. ......................................... 22 

Figure 6: Run 58 orbital position (true anomaly = 202.5°) viewed from the sun. ...................................... 22 

Figure 7: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for previous SAGE hot survival EOTP case. 29 

Figure 8: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for new SAGE hot survival EOTP case. ....... 29 

Figure 9: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for previous ISS extreme hot survival ELC 

case. .............................................................................................................................................. 34 

Figure 10: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for new ISS extreme hot survival ELC case.

 ...................................................................................................................................................... 34 

Figure 11: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for previous ISS extreme hot survival EOTP 

(IAM) case. .................................................................................................................................... 36 

Figure 12: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for new ISS extreme hot survival EOTP 

case. .............................................................................................................................................. 36 

 
3 

Abstract 

Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) was used to select orbits with worst-case hot and cold thermal 

environments for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) III. The SAGE III system 

thermal model changed substantially since the previous selection of worst-case orbits (which did not use 

the EGO method), so the selections were revised to ensure the worst cases are being captured. The EGO 

method consists of first conducting an initial set of parametric runs, generated with a space-filling Design 

of Experiments (DoE) method, then fitting a surrogate model to the data and searching for points of 

maximum Expected Improvement (EI) to conduct additional runs. The general EGO method was 

modified by using a multi-start optimizer to identify multiple new test points at each iteration. This 

modification facilitates paralell computing and decreases the burden of user interaction when the 

optimizer code is not integrated with the model. Thermal worst-case orbits for SAGE III were 

successfully identified and shown by direct comparison to be more severe than those identified in the 

previous selection. The EGO method is a useful tool for this application and can result in computational 

savings if the initial Design of Experiments (DoE) is selected appropriately. 

Nomenclature 

CCD Charge Coupled Device 

CMP Contamination Monitoring Package 

DMP Disturbance Monitoring Package 

DoE Design of Experiments 

EGO Efficient Global Optimization 

EI Expected Improvement 

ELC-4 ExPRESS Logistics Carrier 4 

EOTP Enhanced Orbital Replacement Unit Temporary Platform 

ExPA ExPRESS Pallet Adapter 

ExPRESS Expedite the Processing of Experiments to Space Station 

HEU Hexapod Electronics Unit 

HMA Hexapod Mechanical Assembly 

IAM Interface Adapter Module 

ICE Instrument Control Electronics 

IP Instrument Payload 

ISS International Space Station 

LaRC Langley Research Center 

MBS Mobile Base System 

PSO Particle Swarm Optimization 

RVDT Rotary Variable Differential Transformer 

SA Sensor Assembly 

SAGE Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment 

SQP Sequential Quadratic Programming 
4 

1 Introduction 

SAGE III is the fifth in a series of instruments developed for monitoring aerosols and gaseous 

constituents in the stratosphere and troposphere. SAGE III measures solar occultation, as shown in Figure 

1. Lunar occultation is measured in a similar fashion. SAGE III also measures the scattering of solar 

radiation in the Earth’s atmosphere (called limb scattering) as shown in Figure 2. These scientific 

measurements provide the basis for the analysis of the atmospheric profiles of aerosols, ozone (O3), 

nitrogen dioxide (NO2), water vapor (H2O), and air density using oxygen (O2)

1

. 

Figure 1: Solar Occultation Measurement1

. 

Figure 2: Limb Scattering Technique1

. 

The SAGE III Instrument Payload, shown in Figure 3, will be launched to the International Space Station 

(ISS) in a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft, then transferred on the Enhanced Orbital Replacement Unit 

Temporary Platform (EOTP) aboard the Mobile Base System (MBS) to its mounting location on the 

Expedite the Processing of Experiments to Space Station (ExPRESS) Logistics Carrier 4, where it will be 

mounted for an operational lifetime of 3 years. Many types of thermal analysis are required to validate the 

payload during transfer and in the final mounted configuration on ISS. More information on the overall 

thermal modeling approach used for SAGE III is presented by Liles, et al.1
5 

Figure 3: SAGE III Instrument Payload (IP)1

. 

This report describes work to revise the SAGE III worst-case thermal environment definitions for the 

payload in its ISS mounted configuration on ExPRESS Logistics Carrier 4 (ELC-4) and during transfer on 

EOTP. The selection of orbits with worst-case thermal environments was done once previously, but the 

thermal model has changed significantly since that time. Therefore, it is necessary to verify that the worstcase orbits are being captured prior to finalizing the pre-flight predictions for SAGE III. 

To determine the worst-case beta angle and attitude combinations for hot and cold cases on ELC-4 and 

EOTP, a method called Efficient Global Optimization2

 (EGO) was used. This method consisted of first 

conducting an initial set of parametric runs, generated with a space-filling Design of Experiments (DoE) 

method, then fitting a surrogate model to the data and searching for points of maximum Expected 

Improvement (EI) to conduct additional runs. The approach that was previously used for selecting the 

worst-case orbits consisted of simply selecting the most severe cases from a DoE set of parametric runs 

without selecting additional test points. Since the EGO approach had not previously been tested for this 

application, the initial DoE runs were selected to be sufficient by themselves to provide the same level of 

accuracy and confidence as the previous effort to define worst-case environments. 

2 Background 

SAGE III has developed an analysis approach which incorporates two sets of worst-case environments. 

One set of environments (referred to as “ISS Extreme”) is used to verify that ISS program requirements 

are met (i.e. that SAGE III does not damage ISS or its payloads) and one set of environments is used to 

assure SAGE III mission success. Both sets of environments are based on environmental and orbital 

parameters provided by the ISS program; however, the SAGE III Mission Success environments are 

based on nominal orbital parameters that are expected during ISS operations whereas the ISS Extreme 

environments include the full envelope of possible ISS attitudes. 
6 

The ISS orbit has many parameters which can vary, including beta angle, yaw, pitch and roll. The design 

of the SAGE III payload must take into account the worstǦcase combinations of these parameters for the 

specific location of the payload on the ISS. The ranges for each of these parameters are shown in Table 1. 

These parameters were used as the bounds for selecting worst-case orbits for hot and cold cases on ELC-4 

and on EOTP. By its nature as a transfer platform, the EOTP does not remain at the same location while 

SAGE III is attached. Therefore, it was necessary to determine the hottest and coldest EOTP locations for 

the SAGE III payload. A previously study considered four locations and determined the hottest location to 

be the second workstation aboard the MBS and the coldest location to be just outside the Dragon trunk. 

Table 1: ISS Beta Angle and Attitude Ranges 

 

Beta Yaw Pitch Roll 

Min Max Min Max Min Max Min Max 

SAGE Mission Success -75° 75° -9° -3° -12° -2° 0.5° 1° 

ISS Extreme -75° 75° -15° 15° -20° 15° -15° 15° 

3 Method 

Thermal Desktop 5.5 Patch 133 and version 39a of the SAGE III System Thermal Model were used for 

this analysis. A user output file was created to output the temperatures at 14 nodes of interest. This 

facilitated the use of an Excel-based tool called FilePlottingTools, which was developed internally at 

LaRC by Salvatore Scola, to quickly process the results from each set of parametric runs.

A DoE table was first generated with all variables (beta, yaw, pitch & roll) normalized between -1 and 1. 

Because repeated points are not necessary for deterministic models, space-filling designs are standard 

practice for setting up computer experiments unless characteristics of the response are known in advance. 

Based on experience, the worst-case hot and cold locations were more likely to occur at extreme angles 

for beta, yaw, pitch, and roll. Therefore, a 2-level full factorial DoE with the four variables (16 runs) was 

created to capture all vertices of the 4-dimensional Euclidean design space. A space-filling sphere 

packing (also known as maximin) DoE, generated using JMP 104

, was added to fill the interior of the 

design space. All points within a small Euclidean distance of the points at the vertices were removed to 

prevent wasted computational time from running duplicate or near-duplicate points. This DoE had the 

desired property of including all of the vertices of the design space while filling the interior evenly. 

This normalized DoE was then scaled to generate DoEs for each set of cases (SAGE Mission Success and 

ISS Extreme) based on the actual limits for that set of cases. The two sets of cases were run at three 

locations—ELC-4 and the hottest and coldest EOTP locations—for a total of six sets of runs. The SAGE 

Mission Success cases at ELC-4 involved the additional complexity that SAGE III science (solar and 

lunar occultation) data is only taken between beta angles of -60° to +60°. To account for this, 16 

additional runs were added to that DoE table to bound the narrower beta angle range for the science cases. 

Points with beta angles outside this range were ignored when determining hot and cold locations for 

science cases. The final SAGE Mission Success DoE table at ELC-4 had 79 runs, while all others had 64 

runs each. 
7 

For all six sets of runs, all power and heaters were switched off so as not to mask temperature changes 

due to the external radiative environment. Therefore, all temperature differences between cases were 

solely due to differences in the orbital thermal environments (rather than, i.e., to differences in heater duty 

cycles). 

The problem of finding the worst-case hot or worst-case cold combinations of beta, yaw, pitch and roll is 

inherently a multi-objective optimization problem, with the temperatures of the individual subsystems as 

objectives. Fortunately, the temperatures of the subsystems are highly correlated, which facilitated 

treating the problem as single-objective with an aggregate objective function to allow use of the EGO 

algorithm. The aggregate objective function used was the average of the steady-state temperatures of the 

14 nodes listed in Table 2. These nodes were selected to include each electronics box as well as the flight 

thermal sensors on the Sensor Assembly (SA) that are mounted on critical components. Note that this 

aggregate objective function was used only to determine new points to run, not to decide which orbit out 

of all those run would serve as the hot or cold case for each particular component. 

Table 2: Nodes Considered 

Component Node 

CMP1 SAGE_CMP1.117 

CMP2 SAGE_CMP2.117 

DMP SAGE_DMP.15 

HEU SAGE_HEXA.41405 

HMA SAGE_HEXA.44200 

IAM SAGE_IAM.2014 

ICE SAGE_ICE_BOX.692 

 SA: CCD Controller SAGE_INSTRUMENT.1193 

SA: Azimuth Motor SAGE_INSTRUMENT.1701 

 SA: CCD SAGE_INSTRUMENT.1773 

SA: Scan Mirror SAGE_INSTRUMENT.1988 

SA: Attenuator SAGE_INSTRUMENT.2033 

SA: Elevation Motor SAGE_INSTRUMENT.2036 

SA: RVDT SAGE_INSTRUMENT.2041 

The EGO algorithm is summarized here along with adaptations for this problem. The EGO method is 

described in more detail by Jones, Schonlau, and Welch2

. A stochastic process model was fit to the 

average temperature data. This type of surrogate model assumes that the errors (or deviations from the 

function mean value) at two points (x(i) and x(j)) are correlated as 

ݎݎ݋ܥൣ߳൫ܠሺ௜ሻ൯ǡ ߳൫ܠሺ௝ሻ൯൧ ൌ ሾെ݀൫ܠሺ௜ሻǡ ܠሺ௝ሻ൯ሿ

where ݀൫ܠሺ௜ሻǡ ܠሺ௝ሻ൯ is the weighted distance given by 

݀൫ܠሺ௜ሻǡ ܠሺ௝ሻ൯ ൌ෍ߠ ௛ቚݔ௛

ሺ௜ሻ െ ݔ௛ሺ௝ሻቚ

௣೓

௞

௛ୀଵ
8 

Here k is the number of dimensions in the design space and ߠ ௛and ݌ ௛are model parameters (thus there 

are twice as many model parameters as there dimensions in the design space). The surrogate model is fit 

to the data by varying these model parameters using a global optimizer to find the maximum likelihood2

. 

The EGO code written for this work contains three choices for global optimization of the likelihood 

function: Simulated Annealing, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), and a multi-start approach using 

multiple runs of the Matlab built-in local optimizer called fmincon5

. The local optimizer fmincon has 

several available algorithms. For this problem, the Sequential Quadratic Programming (SQP) algorithm 

was found to be effective. Initially, two of the three optimizers were chosen and the model parameters 

with the better likelihood value were used to fit the model. However, even with as few as 10 runs, the 

multi-start approach for finding the maximum likelihood was consistently able to find model parameters 

that were as good as or better than those found with the two global optimization methods. Therefore, for 

later iterations the much faster multi-start approach was typically the only optimizer used for this step. 

Rather than find the maximum of the likelihood function, all optimizers were actually used to find the 

minimum of the negative natural logarithm of the likelihood function. Taking the natural logarithm of the 

likelihood function was found to cause faster convergence of the optimizer. Using the negative of this 

value was necessary for the fmincon function, which can only find local minima (the other two functions 

were user-programmed and have the capability to maximize or minimize the objective function). 

After fitting model parameters, cross-validation checks were performed2

. These checks involved leaving 

one point out of the dataset and then using the surrogate model with the other points to predict the value at 

the excluded point. The better the model fits the data, the closer the predicted value will be to the actual 

value at that point. 

After the stochastic process model was fit and validated, the next step was to use the model to find the 

maximum of the expected improvement (EI), given by 

ሾܫሺܠሻሿ ൌ ሺ݂௠௜௡ െ ݕොሻߔ ൬݂௠௜௡ െ ݕො

ݏ ൰ ൅ ݏ߮ ൬݂௠௜௡ െ ݕො

൰ ݏ

where ݂௠௜௡ is the current best value, ݕො and s are the predicted value and standard error at x, and ߔሺήሻ and 

߮ሺήሻ are the standard normal cumulative distribution and density functions2

. This formula is for 

minimizing a function (cold case), but the EI formula for maximizing a function (hot case) is very similar. 

The derivation for the EI formula is discussed by Jones, Schonlau, and Welch2

. The same three global 

optimizers as for fitting the surrogate model were used here (in various combinations) to maximize the 

expected improvement by varying the design variables (beta, yaw, pitch, and roll). 

The term “improvement” as used here and in the remainder of this document refers to progress towards 

the optimization goals of finding orbits that result in the maximum and minimum temperatures (it does 

not imply that conditions are more favorable for SAGE III). For example, identifying a hot-case orbit 

with higher temperatures than the current hottest orbit would be considered improvement. The expected 

improvement can be conceptualized just the way it sounds—the amount of improvement in the current 

minimum or maximum value that can be expected (on average) by sampling the objective function at a 

given point. The use of EI as a metric balances exploration of the design space with exploitation of the 

available data. That is, the dependence on the standard error tends to increase the EI in regions away 

from sampled points (exploration), while the dependence on predicted value tends to increase the EI close 
9 

to the best current values (exploitation). The behavior of the Expected Improvement function is 

illustrated in Figure 4. Here an arbitrary 1D test function was sampled at the circled points and a 

surrogate model was fit to the data through these points. The expected improvement for finding the 

global minimum of this function, plotted in the same figure, has three significant maxima. The locations 

of these maxima show a balance between sampling near points with low values and sampling in regions 

of high uncertainty. 

Figure 4: Example of Expected Improvement for unknown test function. 

One of the disadvantages of the general Efficient Global Optimization approach is that, after the initial 

points in the space-filling DoE are completed, it is not amenable to parallel computing (or to conducting 

several runs overnight without intervention). Instead, after each new point, the surrogate model is fitted 

again with the new data, and the next point of maximum EI is chosen. This process is especially tedious 

in cases where the model is not integrated with the EGO code. 

The Expected Improvement function is highly multimodal, often with numerous local maxima with 

values on the same order of magnitude but distant from each other in the design space (as shown in Figure 

4). The addition of one more sampled point at the global maximum may cause only small shifts in the 

locations and expected improvement values of these other local maxima. In many cases, the next global 

maximum of expected improvement will be very close to one of the other local maxima from the previous 

iteration. Therefore, in cases where wall-clock time is critical, points should be tested at several of the 

largest local maxima of EI in parallel with the global maximum. Since the EGO implementation for this 

work already included a multi-start optimizer, it was easy to save the locations of several of the largest 

local EI maxima. This adaptation is highly recommended because it 1) facilitates parallel computing and 

2) minimizes user interaction in cases where the model is not easy to integrate with the EGO code. For 

this work, the first benefit was not used, but the second was extremely helpful, particularly for setting 

points to run overnight. 
10 

A global expected improvement below 0.3°C for the average temperature was considered to signify 

convergence for this application. Note that this is the expected improvement from one more function 

evaluation, not the total remaining expected improvement for infinitely many function evaluations 

(finding the “true” optimum). This convergence threshold was selected to be small enough to provide the 

desired level of accuracy, but not so small as to require an excessive number of iterations. At least two 

iterations were conducted for each case because the EI can sometimes jump after the first iteration. 

Although only the average temperature was used by the EGO algorithm, the hottest or coldest 

temperatures for the components do not always occur in the same run. Therefore, when selecting hot and 

cold cases, the temperatures of individual components were considered, not the average temperature. In 

order for an orbit to be considered hot or cold case orbit for a particular component, it must be within 2°C 

of the maximum or minimum temperature for that component. This 2°C requirement was selected as a 

compromise between accurately capturing the most severe temperatures and reducing the number of 

special cases required for individual subsystems. Fortunately, in most sets, the orbit with the most 

extreme average temperature was able to be used as the hot or cold case for all subsystems. 

4 Results 

4.1 SAGE Mission Success Cases 

4.1.1 ELC-4 

On ELC-4, the same set of runs was used for finding both the hot and cold cases. This allowed a single 

surrogate model to be fitted to the data. Then the maximization of expected improvement was run twice 

(flipping the sign of the average temperatures) to predict the new points for minimization and 

maximization of the average temperature. The EGO algorithm converged to both the hot and cold cases 

after 4 iterations and a total of 13 new runs (6 for cold and 7 for hot). This brought the total number of 

runs for ELC-4 SAGE Mission Success cases to 92. 

Cross-validation of the surrogate model showed some undesirable behavior, such as an outlier. Despite 

this, the method successfully identified new hot and cold cases (that were more extreme than those in the 

initial DoE runs), and the expected improvement steadily decreased until convergence criteria were 

satisfied. Additionally, the temperatures of the 14 components considered were strongly correlated, 

which validates the choice of a single aggregate objective function. This lends confidence that the most 

extreme hot and cold orbits were successfully identified (to within the convergence tolerance). 

The minimum temperatures for each component and the runs during which they occurred are shown in 

Table 3 (the specific nodes considered for each component are those shown in Table 2). 

Table 4 shows the temperatures, and the differences from the overall minimum component temperatures, 

for the cold case from the DOE runs (run 19) and the final cold case after EGO convergence (run 90). 

The final cold case (run 90) is within 0.3°C of the minimum for each component, so no special cases are 

needed. Run 90 has only a slight average temperature improvement (in the optimization sense of 

minimizing the objective function) of 0.2°C compared to the cold case from the original DoE runs (run 

19). 
11 

Table 3: Minimum Temperatures during ELC-4 SAGE Mission Success Cases 

Component Min Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 -27.8 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

CMP2 -27.1 19 -60.0 -9.0 -2.0 1.0 

DMP -27.4 19 -60.0 -9.0 -2.0 1.0 

HEU -20.8 81 -56.3 -8.5 -2.0 0.9 

HMA -27.5 19 -60.0 -9.0 -2.0 1.0 

IAM -28.7 19 -60.0 -9.0 -2.0 1.0 

ICE -24.3 87 -58.7 -8.4 -2.0 0.8 

CCD Controller -28.3 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

Azimuth Motor -28.8 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

CCD -28.5 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

Scan Mirror -32.1 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

Attenuator -30.5 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

Elevation Motor -31.0 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

RVDT -31.0 90 -58.9 -8.4 -2.0 0.6 

Table 4: SAGE Mission Success ELC-4 Cold Case Temperatures 

Temps in each min case (°C) Difference from min (°C) 

Cold Case DoE Runs Final Cold 

Case DoE Runs Final Cold Case 

Run # 19 90 19 90 

CMP1 -27.8 -27.8 0.0 0.0 

CMP2 -27.1 -27.0 0.0 0.1 

DMP -27.4 -27.4 0.0 0.1 

HEU -20.2 -20.5 0.6 0.3 

HMA -27.5 -27.5 0.0 0.0 

IAM -28.7 -28.7 0.0 0.0 

ICE -23.9 -24.2 0.4 0.1 

CCD Controller -28.2 -28.3 0.1 0.0 

Azimuth Motor -28.6 -28.8 0.2 0.0 

CCD -28.3 -28.5 0.2 0.0 

Scan Mirror -31.9 -32.1 0.2 0.0 

Attenuator -30.2 -30.5 0.2 0.0 

Elevation Motor -30.7 -31.0 0.3 0.0 

RVDT -30.7 -31.0 0.3 0.0 

Temps within 0.4°C of min are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are 

highlighted 
12 

The maximum temperatures for each component and the runs during which they occurred are shown in 

Table 5. Table 6 shows the temperatures, and the differences from the overall maximum component 

temperatures, for the hot case from the DOE runs (run 33) and the final hot case after EGO convergence 

(run 91). The final hot case (run 91) is within 0.4°C of the maximum for each component, so no special 

cases are needed. Run 91 has a fairly significant average temperature improvement of 1.9°C compared to 

the hot case from just the original DoE runs (run 33). 

Table 5: Maximum Temperatures during ELC-4 SAGE Mission Success Cases 

Component Max Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 3.8 89 43.6 -7.6 -6.1 0.5 

CMP2 15.6 89 43.6 -7.6 -6.1 0.5 

DMP 15.9 89 43.6 -7.6 -6.1 0.5 

HEU -0.1 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

HMA 9.0 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

IAM 7.7 89 43.6 -7.6 -6.1 0.5 

ICE 2.4 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

CCD Controller -3.4 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

Azimuth Motor -6.8 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

CCD -6.4 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

Scan Mirror -1.1 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

Attenuator -2.3 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

Elevation Motor -0.5 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 

RVDT -0.8 91 43.6 -8.4 -3.7 0.5 
13 

Table 6: SAGE Mission Success ELC-4 Hot Case Temperatures 

Temps in each max case (°C) Difference from max (°C) 

Hot Case DoE Runs Final Hot 

Case DoE Runs Final Hot Case 

Run # 33 91 33 91 

CMP1 2.1 3.4 -1.6 -0.3 

CMP2 13.0 15.4 -2.6 -0.3 

DMP 13.4 15.6 -2.5 -0.3 

HEU -1.7 -0.1 -1.6 0.0 

HMA 6.7 9.0 -2.3 0.0 

IAM 5.9 7.3 -1.9 -0.4 

ICE -0.1 2.4 -2.5 0.0 

CCD Controller -5.8 -3.4 -2.4 0.0 

Azimuth Motor -9.0 -6.8 -2.2 0.0 

CCD -8.8 -6.4 -2.3 0.0 

Scan Mirror -2.9 -1.1 -1.8 0.0 

Attenuator -4.0 -2.3 -1.7 0.0 

Elevation Motor -2.1 -0.5 -1.5 0.0 

RVDT -1.8 -0.8 -1.0 0.0 

Temps within 0.4°C of max are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are 

highlighted 

4.1.2 EOTP 

The EOTP cold case was comparatively slow to converge, requiring 5 iterations and 13 new cases. This 

brought the total number of runs for EOTP cold cases to 77. Cross-validation of the surrogate model 

showed no major problems. Additionally, the temperatures of the 14 components considered were 

strongly correlated, which validates the use of a single aggregate objective function. This gives 

confidence that the most extreme cold orbit was successfully identified (to within the convergence 

tolerance). 

The minimum temperatures for each component and the runs during which they occurred are shown in 

Table 7. Table 8 shows the temperatures, and the differences from the overall minimum component 

temperatures, for the cold case from the DoE runs (run 26) and the final cold case after EGO convergence 

(run 71). The final cold case (run 71) is within 0.3°C of the minimum for each component, so no special 

cases are needed. Run 71 has an average temperature improvement of 1.2°C compared to the cold case 

from just the original DOE runs (run 26). 
14 

Table 7: Minimum Temperatures during EOTP Cold SAGE Mission Success Cases 

Component Min Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 -39.1 71 -3.3 -5.8 -12.0 0.5 

CMP2 -39.1 71 -3.3 -5.8 -12.0 0.5 

DMP -38.5 71 -3.3 -5.8 -12.0 0.5 

HEU -37.5 71 -3.3 -5.8 -12.0 0.5 

HMA -39.6 71 -3.3 -5.8 -12.0 0.5 

IAM -39.0 71 -3.3 -5.8 -12.0 0.5 

ICE -39.6 71 -3.3 -5.8 -12.0 0.5 

CCD Controller -42.4 74 -0.9 -5.4 -12.0 0.5 

Azimuth Motor -42.8 74 -0.9 -5.4 -12.0 0.5 

CCD -42.7 74 -0.9 -5.4 -12.0 0.5 

Scan Mirror -42.5 74 -0.9 -5.4 -12.0 0.5 

Attenuator -42.3 74 -0.9 -5.4 -12.0 0.5 

Elevation Motor -42.0 74 -0.9 -5.4 -12.0 0.5 

RVDT -42.1 74 -0.9 -5.4 -12.0 0.5 

Table 8: SAGE Mission Success EOTP Cold Case Temperatures 

Temps in each min case (°C) Difference from min (°C) 

Cold Case DoE Runs Final Cold 

Case 

DoE Runs Final Cold 

Case 

Run # 26 71 26 71 

CMP1 -37.5 -39.1 1.6 0.0 

CMP2 -37.6 -39.1 1.6 0.0 

DMP -36.9 -38.5 1.5 0.0 

HEU -36.1 -37.5 1.3 0.0 

HMA -38.4 -39.6 1.3 0.0 

IAM -37.4 -39.0 1.5 0.0 

ICE -38.8 -39.6 0.8 0.0 

CCD Controller -41.5 -42.3 0.8 0.1 

Azimuth Motor -41.9 -42.7 0.9 0.1 

CCD -41.9 -42.6 0.8 0.1 

Scan Mirror -40.6 -42.2 1.9 0.3 

Attenuator -40.7 -42.1 1.6 0.2 

Elevation Motor -40.2 -41.8 1.8 0.2 

RVDT -40.2 -41.8 1.9 0.3 

Temps within 0.4°C of min are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are 

highlighted 
15 

The EOTP hot case converged after only two iterations of one run each, bringing the total number of runs 

for SAGE Mission Success EOTP hot cases to 66. Cross-validation of the surrogate model showed no 

major problems. The temperatures of the 14 components considered were correlated, though not as 

strongly as in the previous cases. The EGO algorithm successfully identified new hot cases, and the 

maximum expected improvement decreased rapidly after each new run. This gives confidence that the 

most extreme hot orbit was successfully identified (to within the convergence tolerance). 

The maximum temperatures for each component and the runs during which they occurred are shown in 

Table 9. Table 10 shows the temperatures, and the differences from the overall maximum component 

temperatures, for final hot case after EGO convergence (run 65) and the two hot cases from the DOE runs 

(run 53 for Sensor Assembly (SA) and run 9 for everything else). With only two iterations of one 

additional run each, the EGO algorithm was able to locate a new hot case that increased the average 

temperature by 1°C and eliminated the need for a separate hot case for the SA. This represents a 

significant improvement with very little extra investment. 

Table 9: Maximum Temperatures during EOTP Hot SAGE Mission Success Cases 

Component Max Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 7.9 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

CMP2 3.1 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

DMP 7.2 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

HEU 7.3 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

HMA 4.6 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

IAM 10.5 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

ICE -3.1 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

CCD Controller -1.6 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

Azimuth Motor 3.8 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

CCD -1.6 65 75.0 -8.3 -12.0 0.7 

Scan Mirror 52.5 64 75.0 -9.0 -12.0 0.6 

Attenuator 41.0 64 75.0 -9.0 -12.0 0.6 

Elevation Motor 53.3 64 75.0 -9.0 -12.0 0.6 

RVDT 52.8 64 75.0 -9.0 -12.0 0.6 
16 

Table 10: SAGE Mission Success EOTP Hot Case Temperatures 

Temps in each max case (°C) Difference from max (°C) 

Hot Case

Overall 

Hot Case 

(DoE) 

SA Hot 

Case 

(DoE) 

Final 

Overall 

Hot Case 

Overall 

Hot Case 

(DoE) 

SA Hot 

Case 

(DoE) 

Final 

Overall 

Hot Case 

Run # 9 53 65 9 53 65 

CMP1 7.4 6.3 7.9 -0.6 -1.7 0.0 

CMP2 2.5 1.5 3.1 -0.6 -1.6 0.0 

DMP 6.5 5.3 7.2 -0.6 -1.9 0.0 

HEU 7.2 6.8 7.3 0.0 -0.5 0.0 

HMA 4.1 2.7 4.6 -0.5 -1.9 0.0 

IAM 9.7 8.3 10.5 -0.9 -2.2 0.0 

ICE -3.4 -4.1 -3.1 -0.4 -1.0 0.0 

CCD Controller -1.7 -3.4 -1.6 -0.1 -1.8 0.0 

Azimuth Motor 3.3 2.3 3.8 -0.5 -1.5 0.0 

CCD -1.7 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 -1.7 0.0 

Scan Mirror 48.3 51.7 51.9 -4.1 -0.8 -0.6 

Attenuator 37.8 40.2 40.6 -3.2 -0.8 -0.4 

Elevation Motor 49.1 52.6 52.7 -4.2 -0.7 -0.6 

RVDT 48.6 52.2 52.2 -4.2 -0.6 -0.7 

Temps within 0.4°C of max are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are highlighted 

4.1.3 Summary 

The overall hot and cold case orbits for SAGE Mission Success cases are shown in Table 11. The beta 

angle for solar and lunar science event measurements is limited to +/-60° (since the ISS only passes 

through orbit shadow in this beta angle range), while all other orbits such as standby and those with only 

limb events can occur over the entire beta angle range of +/-75°. The beta angles for both the hot and 

cold cases on ELC-4 fell within the -60° to 60° range for both science and standby cases, so separate 

orbits were not required for science and standby cases. 

Table 11: SAGE Mission Success Worst-Case Orbits 

ELC-4 (Science & 

Standby) EOTP 

Hot Cold Hot Cold 

Beta 43.6° -58.9° 75.0° -3.3° 

Yaw -8.4° -8.4° -8.3° -5.8° 

Pitch -3.7° -2.0° -12.0° -12.0° 

Roll 0.5° 0.6° 0.7° 0.5° 
17 

4.2 ISS Extreme Cases 

4.2.1 ELC-4 

As for SAGE Mission Success ELC-4 cases, the same set of runs was used for finding both the ISS 

Extreme ELC-4 hot and cold cases. The EGO algorithm converged to both the hot and cold cases after 3 

iterations and a total of 12 new runs (7 for cold and 5 for hot). This brought the total number of runs for 

ELC-4 ISS Extreme cases to 76. 

The temperatures of the 14 nodes considered were not always strongly correlated, resulting in the need for 

special cases for certain components. This means that the use of the aggregate objective function is not 

perfect, but still serves as a useful tool for the EGO algorithm. Despite this, cross-validation of the 

surrogate model showed an excellent fit for the average temperatures, and the expected improvement 

steadily decreased. This lends confidence that the most extreme overall hot and cold orbits were 

successfully identified (to within the convergence tolerance). 

The minimum temperatures for each component, and the runs during which they occurred, are shown in 

Table 12. Table 13 shows the temperatures, and the differences from the overall minimum component 

temperatures, for the final cold case after EGO convergence (run 74), the overall cold case from only the 

DOE runs (run 3), and the ICE cold case (run 5). The final cold case (run 74) has an average temperature 

improvement of 0.3°C compared to the cold case for the original DOE runs (run 3), and does not 

eliminate the need for a separate ICE cold case (run 5). 

Table 12: Minimum Temperatures during ELC-4 ISS Extreme Cases 

Component Min Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 -37.2 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

CMP2 -34.4 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

DMP -35.5 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

HEU -31.7 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

HMA -35.4 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

IAM -38.3 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

ICE -33.6 5 -75.0 15.0 -20.0 15.0 

CCD Controller -35.5 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

Azimuth Motor -36.1 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

CCD -35.6 74 -75.0 -15.0 15.0 13.9 

Scan Mirror -42.1 72 -75.0 -14.8 15.0 13.2 

Attenuator -39.4 72 -75.0 -14.8 15.0 13.2 

Elevation Motor -40.5 72 -75.0 -14.8 15.0 13.2 

RVDT -40.5 72 -75.0 -14.8 15.0 13.2 
18 

Table 13: ISS Extreme ELC-4 Cold Case Temperatures 

Temps in each min case (°C) Difference from min (°C) 

Cold Case 

DoE 

Runs 

Only 

ICE Cold 

Case 

Final 

Cold 

Case 

DoE 

Runs 

Only 

ICE Cold 

Case 

Final 

Cold 

Case 

Run # 3 5 74 3 5 74 

CMP1 -36.9 -30.0 -37.2 0.3 7.2 0.0 

CMP2 -34.3 -31.0 -34.4 0.1 3.4 0.0 

DMP -35.3 -30.2 -35.5 0.2 5.3 0.0 

HEU -30.8 -28.3 -31.7 0.9 3.3 0.0 

HMA -35.2 -30.8 -35.4 0.2 4.6 0.0 

IAM -38.1 -30.3 -38.3 0.3 8.1 0.0 

ICE -29.2 -33.6 -29.5 4.3 0.0 4.1 

CCD Controller -35.3 -32.2 -35.5 0.2 3.3 0.0 

Azimuth Motor -35.9 -32.5 -36.1 0.2 3.6 0.0 

CCD -35.4 -32.4 -35.6 0.2 3.2 0.0 

Scan Mirror -41.7 -32.9 -41.9 0.4 9.2 0.1 

Attenuator -39.1 -32.5 -39.4 0.3 6.9 0.0 

Elevation Motor -40.1 -32.5 -40.4 0.3 7.9 0.1 

RVDT -40.1 -32.6 -40.4 0.4 7.9 0.1 

Temps within 0.4°C of min are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are 

highlighted 

The maximum temperatures for each component, and the runs during which they occurred, are shown in 

Table 14. Table 15 shows the temperatures, and the differences from the overall maximum component 

temperatures, for overall hot case (run 9), the HEU hot case (run 4), and the ICE hot case (run 11). No 

new hot cases were found with the EGO algorithm. This is unsurprising, since the overall hot case occurs 

on a vertex of its design space. Therefore, it was already included in the initial DoE runs (whereas the 

DoE runs would likely not hit a maximum inside the design space precisely). However, the convergence 

of the EGO algorithm still serves to increase confidence that the true overall hot case was identified. 
19 

Table 14: Maximum Temperatures during ELC-4 ISS Extreme Cases 

Component Max Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 7.8 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

CMP2 12.9 11 75.0 -15.0 15.0 15.0 

DMP 12.8 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

HEU 10.1 4 -75.0 15.0 -20.0 -15.0 

HMA 9.7 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

IAM 10.2 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

ICE 3.2 11 75.0 -15.0 15.0 15.0 

CCD Controller 3.3 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

Azimuth Motor 1.8 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

CCD 1.8 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

Scan Mirror 5.5 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

Attenuator 5.3 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

Elevation Motor 7.2 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

RVDT 6.4 9 75.0 -15.0 -20.0 15.0 

Table 15: ISS Extreme ELC-4 Hot Case Temperatures 

Temps in each max case (°C) Difference from max (°C) 

Hot Case HEU Hot 

Case 

Overall 

Hot Case 

ICE Hot 

Case 

HEU Hot 

Case 

Overall 

Hot Case 

ICE Hot 

Case 

Run # 4 9 11 4 9 11 

CMP1 -0.5 7.8 2.1 -8.4 0.0 -5.8 

CMP2 -5.0 12.5 12.9 -17.8 -0.3 0.0 

DMP -2.4 12.8 10.9 -15.1 0.0 -1.8 

HEU 10.1 5.4 1.4 0.0 -4.7 -8.7 

HMA -2.9 9.7 7.7 -12.6 0.0 -2.0 

IAM -0.5 10.2 4.2 -10.7 0.0 -6.0 

ICE -5.3 0.4 3.2 -8.5 -2.8 0.0 

CCD Controller -5.6 3.3 0.8 -8.9 0.0 -2.5 

Azimuth Motor -5.2 1.8 -2.2 -6.9 0.0 -4.0 

CCD -5.9 1.8 -1.1 -7.7 0.0 -2.8 

Scan Mirror 2.4 5.5 -9.5 -3.1 0.0 -15.0 

Attenuator 1.2 5.3 -6.3 -4.2 0.0 -11.6 

Elevation Motor 3.4 7.2 -7.2 -3.8 0.0 -14.3 

RVDT 4.1 6.4 -7.5 -2.3 0.0 -13.9 

Temps within 0.4°C of max are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are highlighted 
20 

4.2.2 EOTP 

The ISS Extreme EOTP Cold case did not converge to the convergence criterion of EI less than 0.3°C. 

The EI decreased from as high as 8.6°C to below 1°C after the first few iterations. After this, the EI did 

not converge further. Cross-validation of the model showed several outliers, as well as an apparent 

correlation between the residuals and the objective function values, indicating non-ideal model fit. This 

may be due to the location of the payload outside of the Dragon trunk. In this location, at certain angles 

ISS solar panels can rotate to block (or partially block) the payload’s view of the sun, as shown in Figure 

5 and Figure 6. This leads to a highly multi-modal response, sharp temperature variations, and lack of 

correlation between the 14 component temperatures. All of these factors cause difficulty when fitting the 

surrogate model. 

Six iterations were conducted for a total of 59 additional runs. This brought the total number of runs for 

EOTP Cold ISS Extreme cases to 124. This large number of runs was not strictly necessary, since the 

convergence threshold of 0.3°C could likely have been increased to require fewer runs while still 

retaining an acceptable level of accuracy. Furthermore, examination of the results showed a consistent 

overestimation of the expected improvement; and no new cold cases were identified in the last 34 runs. 

Runs were continued to examine the convergence behavior of the EGO algorithm in a difficult case such 

as this. 

The minimum temperatures for each component, and the runs during which they occurred, are shown in 

Table 16. Unlike in any other case, the minimum temperatures for the components considered occur at 

three very different beta angles and at different values spanning the ranges for yaw, pitch and roll. This 

indicates that, as mentioned, the temperature response is highly multimodal, likely due to the location of 

SAGE III in relation to the ISS solar panels. These solar panels rotate to track the sun and can therefore 

block direct sunlight at many different beta angles and ISS attitudes, making the temperature dependence 

on these angles much more complicated and multi-modal. Like any optimization approach, EGO has 

difficulties finding the global optimum when there are numerous local optima; especially if the objective 

function values at these local optima are very close to the global optimum. 

The temperatures of the 14 components are also not very strongly correlated, as shown in Table 17. This 

made the use of an aggregate objective function much less effective and contributed to the difficulties of 

using the EGO approach. Run 89 is the overall cold case, while run 58 is the cold case for CMP2, DMP, 

HEU, and ICE. It would be more concise to refer to run 58 as the overall cold case and run 89 as the cold 

case for the SA; however, run 89 is a much better overall cold case since it is within 5°C of the minimum 

for every component (whereas run 58 is almost 40°C above the minimum for some SA components). 

Run 23 was the overall cold case from only the DoE runs and still has the minimum temperature for some 

SA components (but run 89 is within the 2°C tolerance for accepting it as the cold case for those 

components). 
21 

Table 16: Minimum Temperatures during EOTP Cold ISS Extreme Cases 

Component Min Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 -42.3 89 -4.3 -7.0 -3.3 15.0 

CMP2 -43.8 58 75.0 15.0 15.0 -8.7 

DMP -43.0 58 75.0 15.0 15.0 -8.7 

HEU -44.7 58 75.0 15.0 15.0 -8.7 

HMA -42.7 58 75.0 15.0 15.0 -8.7 

IAM -42.3 89 -4.3 -7.0 -3.3 15.0 

ICE -45.8 58 75.0 15.0 15.0 -8.7 

CCD Controller -44.3 89 -4.3 -7.0 -3.3 15.0 

Azimuth Motor -44.8 89 -4.3 -7.0 -3.3 15.0 

CCD -44.6 89 -4.3 -7.0 -3.3 15.0 

Scan Mirror -47.5 23 -74.2 -1.0 -20.0 15.0 

Attenuator -45.9 23 -74.2 -1.0 -20.0 15.0 

Elevation Motor -46.4 23 -74.2 -1.0 -20.0 15.0 

RVDT -46.6 23 -74.2 -1.0 -20.0 15.0 

Table 17: ISS Extreme EOTP Cold Case Temperatures 

Temps in each min case (°C) Difference from min (°C) 

Cold Case 

Cold Case 

from DoE 

Runs Only 

CMP2, 

DMP, HEU 

& ICE 

Cold Case 

Final 

Overall 

Cold 

Case 

Cold Case 

from DoE 

Runs Only 

CMP2, 

DMP, HEU 

& ICE Cold 

Case

Final 

Overall 

Cold 

Case 

Run # 23 58 89 23 58 89 

CMP1 -41.8 -42.2 -42.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 

CMP2 -37.6 -43.8 -41.5 6.1 0.0 2.3 

DMP -38.5 -43.0 -41.3 4.5 0.0 1.7 

HEU -39.8 -44.7 -40.3 5.0 0.0 4.4 

HMA -39.6 -42.7 -42.2 3.1 0.0 0.5 

IAM -41.5 -41.7 -42.3 0.8 0.6 0.0 

ICE -34.9 -45.8 -41.2 10.9 0.0 4.6 

CCD Controller -42.5 -42.8 -44.3 1.9 1.5 0.0 

Azimuth Motor -43.5 -38.5 -44.8 1.4 6.4 0.0 

CCD -43.0 -41.7 -44.6 1.7 3.0 0.0 

Scan Mirror -47.5 -9.2 -46.1 0.0 38.3 1.5 

Attenuator -45.9 -16.7 -45.4 0.0 29.2 0.5 

Elevation Motor -46.4 -9.5 -45.4 0.0 36.8 0.9 

RVDT -46.6 -9.7 -45.5 0.0 37.0 1.2 

Temps within 0.4°C of min are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are highlighted 
22 

Run 58 appears to be unusual because it is the coldest case for most non-SA components but yet is nearly 

40°C warmer than the coldest temperatures for some SA nodes. Further investigation of this case by 

viewing its orbit in Thermal Desktop revealed that for 5 of its 16 orbital positions, solar panels blocked 

direct sunlight from almost all of SAGE III except for the SA. The drastic difference between SA 

temperatures and the temperatures of the other nodes in this case is a result of this phenomenon. 

Screenshots of two of these orbital positions, viewed from the sun are shown in Figure 5 and Figure 6. 

Figure 5: Run 58 orbital position (true anomaly = 225°) viewed from the sun. 

Figure 6: Run 58 orbital position (true anomaly = 202.5°) viewed from the sun.

The ISS Extreme EOTP hot case converged after 3 iterations for a total of 5 new runs. The total number 

of runs for SAGE Mission Success EOTP hot cases was 69. Cross-validation of the surrogate model 
23 

showed no major problems. The temperatures of the 14 nodes considered were strongly correlated, which 

validates the choice of a single aggregate objective function. The EGO algorithm successfully identified 

a hot case, and the maximum EI decreased after each new run. This gives confidence that the most 

extreme hot orbit was successfully identified (to within the convergence tolerance). 

The maximum temperatures for each component and the runs during which they occurred are shown in 

Table 18. Table 19 shows the temperatures, and the differences from the overall maximum component 

temperatures, for final hot case after EGO convergence (run 65) and the hot cases from only the DoE runs 

(run 10). The final hot case (run 65) is within 0.5°C of the maximum for each component, so no special 

cases are needed. Run 65 has an average temperature improvement of 1.3°C compared to the hot case 

from just the original DoE runs (run 10). 

Table 18: Maximum Temperatures during EOTP Hot ISS Extreme Cases 

Component Max Temp (°C) Run # Beta (°) Yaw (°) Pitch (°) Roll (°) 

CMP1 20.1 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

CMP2 18.4 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

DMP 21.7 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

HEU 17.4 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

HMA 18.6 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

IAM 23.5 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

ICE 8.8 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

CCD Controller 11.4 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

Azimuth Motor 15.8 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

CCD 10.8 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

Scan Mirror 62.9 10 75.0 -15.0 15.0 -15.0 

Attenuator 51.6 65 75.0 -15.0 -4.1 -15.0 

Elevation Motor 64.1 10 75.0 -15.0 15.0 -15.0 

RVDT 63.3 10 75.0 -15.0 15.0 -15.0 
24 

Table 19: ISS Extreme EOTP Hot Case Temperatures 

Temps in each max case Difference from max 

Hot Case DoE Runs Final Hot 

Case 

DoE Runs Final Hot 

Case 

Run # 10 65 10 65 

CMP1 17.9 20.1 -2.2 0.0 

CMP2 16.6 18.4 -1.8 0.0 

DMP 19.8 21.7 -1.9 0.0 

HEU 15.5 17.4 -1.9 0.0 

HMA 16.7 18.6 -1.9 0.0 

IAM 21.2 23.5 -2.3 0.0 

ICE 7.2 8.8 -1.6 0.0 

CCD Controller 9.5 11.4 -1.9 0.0 

Azimuth Motor 14.3 15.8 -1.5 0.0 

CCD 8.9 10.8 -1.8 0.0 

Scan Mirror 62.9 62.6 0.0 -0.3 

Attenuator 51.6 51.6 0.0 0.0 

Elevation Motor 64.1 63.5 0.0 -0.5 

RVDT 63.3 62.9 0.0 -0.4 

Temps within 0.4°C of max are 

highlighted 

Differences of >2°C are 

highlighted 

4.2.3 Summary 

The overall hot and cold case orbits for ISS Extreme cases are shown in Table 20. All cases except for 

the EOTP hot case required separate cases for individual subsystems. These special cases are shown in 

Table 21. 

Table 20: ISS Extreme Worst-Case Orbits 

ELC-4 EOTP 

Hot* Cold* Hot Cold* 

Beta 75.0° -75.0° 75.0° -4.3° 

Yaw -15.0° -15.0° -15.0° -7.0° 

Pitch -20.0° 15.0° -4.1° -3.3° 

Roll 15.0° 13.9° -15.0° 15.0° 

* Require separate cases for specific subsystems. 
25 

Table 21: ISS Extreme Special Hot and Cold Cases 

ELC-4 EOTP 

ICE Hot HEU Hot ICE Cold** 

CMP2, DMP, HEU & ICE 

Cold 

Beta 75.0° -75.0° -75.0° 75.0° 

Yaw -15.0° 15.0° 15.0° 15.0° 

Pitch 15.0° -20.0° -20.0° 15.0° 

Roll 15.0° -15.0° 15.0° -8.7° 

**This case was later removed because after including heaters the differences from the 

overall cold case were no longer significant 

5 Comparison with Previous Worst-Case Orbits 

Table 22 shows a comparison of new orbit for the SAGE extreme hot op science case with the previous 

orbit. Similarly, Table 23 and Table 24 show comparisons for the SAGE hot op limb and SAGE hot 

survival EOTP cases, respectively. The SAGE hot survival ELC case is not shown because it has the 

same orbit as the SAGE hot op limb case. Highlighted cells mark instances in which predictions come 

within 15°C of the hardware limits. Changes of greater than 5°C between previous and new orbits are 

shown in bold. 

The orbit-averaged ExPRESS Pallet Adapter (ExPA) temperature distributions for the previous and new 

SAGE hot survival EOTP cases are shown in Figure 7 and Figure 8, respectively. The large temperature 

differences shown in those figures explain why the largest temperature differences for the SAGE hot 

survival EOTP case occur for components (such as IAM, DMP, and CMP2) that have strong conductive 

ties to ExPA. 
26 

Table 22: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Extreme Hot Op Sci Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Extreme Hot Change 

Op Sci 

Extreme Hot 

Op Sci 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta 43.6 60.0 

Yaw -8.4 -3.0 

Pitch -3.7 -2.0 

Roll 0.5 0.5 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor 60 50.3 50.8 -0.5 

Scan Mirror 60 45.3 44.8 0.5 

Attenuator 60 45.1 43.1 2.0 

RVDT 55 42.3 42.3 0.0 

Azimuth Motor Stator 55 32.3 25.1 7.2 

CCD 35 18.6 21.1 -2.5 

CCD Controller PWA 55 42.2 33.8 8.4 

HMA 60 40.7 30.0 10.8 

HEU 60 51.1 44.7 6.4 

ICE 60 42.6 36.1 6.5 

IAM 65 45.7 35.9 9.8 

CMP1 75 42.3 34.4 7.9 

CMP2 75 43.3 30.0 13.2 

DMP 65 47.6 35.0 12.7 

Breaks 15°C margin 
27 

Table 23: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Hot Op Limb Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Change 

Hot Op Limb Hot Op Limb 

Hot Op Limb 

(HEU) 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta 43.6 60.0 -75.0 

Yaw -8.4 -3.0 -9.0 

Pitch -3.7 -2.0 -12.0 

Roll 0.5 0.5 0.5 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor 60 41.6 39.1 40.3 1.3 

Scan Mirror 60 37.3 34.6 35.9 1.4 

Attenuator 60 31.5 28.5 28.9 2.6 

RVDT 55 35.5 33.0 34.3 1.2 

Azimuth Motor Stator 55 27.8 23.9 21.8 3.9 

CCD 35 17.3 13.5 10.2 3.8 

CCD Controller PWA 55 40.4 35.3 28.8 5.1 

HMA 60 40.4 32.6 16.1 7.8 

HEU 60 51.2 46.2 47.2 4.0 

ICE 60 45.8 40.4 32.5 5.4 

IAM 65 45.9 38.4 20.9 7.5 

CMP1 75 42.3 36.3 25.1 6.1 

CMP2 75 43.4 32.8 8.7 10.6 

DMP 65 47.8 38.0 13.4 9.8 

Breaks 15°C margin 
28 

Table 24: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Hot Survival EOTP Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Hot Survival Change 

EOTP 

Hot Survival 

EOTP 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta 75.0 -75.0 

Yaw -8.3 -6.0 

Pitch -12.0 -6.0 

Roll 0.7 0.9 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor 85 5.8 -2.2 8.0 

Scan Mirror 85 6.0 -2.7 8.7 

Attenuator 60 9.5 3.6 5.9 

RVDT 125 5.5 -2.7 8.2 

Azimuth Motor Stator 65 20.0 19.6 0.4 

CCD 65 18.9 18.5 0.4 

CCD Controller PWA 65 19.5 18.5 1.0 

HMA 80 18.2 15.0 3.2 

HEU 80 15.3 8.7 6.6 

ICE 65 0.9 -3.0 3.9 

IAM 113 21.5 -6.9 28.4 

CMP1 113 18.0 -9.5 27.5 

CMP2 113 11.9 -8.3 20.2 

DMP 75 18.6 -2.7 21.3 
29 

Figure 7: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for previous SAGE hot survival 

EOTP case. 

Figure 8: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for new SAGE hot survival EOTP 

case. 
30 

Table 25, Table 26, and Table 27 show comparisons between the new and previous SAGE cold op 

science, SAGE cold survival ELC, and SAGE cold survival EOTP cases, respectively. 

Table 25: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Cold Op Sci Cases 

Limits (°C) New Previous Change Cold Op Sci Cold Op Sci 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta -58.9 -60.0 

Yaw -8.4 -9.0 

Pitch -2.0 -2.0 

Roll 0.6 0.5 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor -30 22.2 22.7 -0.4 

Scan Mirror -30 19.5 19.5 0.0 

Attenuator -30 21.3 21.4 -0.1 

RVDT -30 24.5 24.9 -0.4 

Azimuth Motor Stator -30 20.3 20.3 0.0 

CCD -30 6.0 6.0 0.0 

CCD Controller PWA -30 25.0 24.9 0.0 

HMA -40 5.2 5.2 0.0 

HEU -20 16.4 16.9 -0.5 

ICE -30 11.7 12.2 -0.5 

IAM -40 0.3 0.9 -0.6 

CMP1 -55 -2.2 -1.8 -0.5 

CMP2 -55 -4.9 -4.6 -0.3 

DMP -30 -0.7 -0.1 -0.6 

Heater Duty Cycles 

(%) 

Scan Mirror Heater 100 100 0 

SA Zone 1 Heater 46 52 -6 

SA Zone 3 Heater 15 21 -6 

HMA AC Heater 25 25 0 

HMA UP Heater 1 1 0 

CMP2 Op Heater 100 100 0 
31 

Table 26: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Cold Survival ELC Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Cold Survival Change 

ELC 

Cold Survival 

ELC 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta -58.9 -75.0 

Yaw -8.4 -3.0 

Pitch -2.0 -7.0 

Roll 0.6 0.5 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor -50 -10.2 -8.0 -2.2 

Scan Mirror -50 -11.2 -9.2 -2.0 

Attenuator -40 -2.0 -0.4 -1.6 

RVDT -30 -10.4 -8.1 -2.3 

Azimuth Motor Stator -30 19.3 19.4 -0.1 

CCD -30 18.6 18.7 -0.1 

CCD Controller PWA -30 17.3 17.4 -0.1 

HMA -40 4.4 5.1 -0.7 

HEU -40 -6.0 -2.3 -3.7 

ICE -30 -7.8 -7.9 0.1 

IAM -55 -23.0 -21.9 -1.1 

CMP1 -55 -24.1 -23.0 -1.2 

CMP2 -55 -24.4 -22.3 -2.2 

DMP -40 -15.8 -13.5 -2.3 

Heater Duty Cycles 

(%) 

SA Zone 1 Heater 77 71 6 

SA Zone 3 Heater 42 39 3 

HMA AC Heater 100 100 0 

HMA UP Heater 13 10 3 

HEU Heater 100 100 0 

ICE Survival Heater 77 70 7 

IAM Survival Heater 99 0 99 

DMP Survival Heater 100 100 0 
32 

Table 27: Comparison of New and Previous SAGE Cold Survival EOTP Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Cold Survival Change 

EOTP 

Cold Survival 

EOTP 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta -3.3 10.0 

Yaw -5.8 -6.0 

Pitch -12.0 -12.0 

Roll 0.5 0.5 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor -50 -12.6 -3.8 -8.8 

Scan Mirror -50 -13.0 -4.4 -8.6 

Attenuator -40 -3.7 2.5 -6.2 

RVDT -30 -12.8 -4.0 -8.8 

Azimuth Motor Stator -30 19.2 19.5 -0.2 

CCD -30 18.3 18.4 -0.1 

CCD Controller PWA -30 17.2 17.4 -0.2 

HMA -40 4.4 5.5 -1.1 

HEU -40 -12.6 -10.2 -2.3 

ICE -30 -8.3 -7.9 -0.4 

IAM -55 -23.0 -19.7 -3.3 

CMP1 -55 -25.8 -22.6 -3.2 

CMP2 -55 -24.8 -20.6 -4.3 

DMP -40 -14.4 -11.4 -2.9 

Heater Duty Cycles 

(%) 

SA Zone 1 Heater 85 80 5 

SA Zone 3 Heater 47 42 5 

HMA AC Heater 100 100 0 

HMA UP Heater 19 13 6 

HEU Heater 100 100 0 

ICE Survival Heater 100 93 7 

IAM Survival Heater 80 0 80 

DMP Survival Heater 100 99 1 

Table 28 shows a comparison of the new and previous orbits for the ISS extreme hot survival ELC case. 

The large temperature changes for components that are strongly conductively linked to ExPA are caused 

by the differences between the previous ExPA temperature distribution shown in Figure 9 and the new 

ExPA temperature distribution shown in Figure 10. 
33 

Table 28: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Hot Survival ELC Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Hot Survival Change 

ELC 

Hot Survival 

ELC (HEU) 

Hot Survival 

ELC (ICE) 

Hot Survival 

ELC 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta 75.0 75.0 -75.0 -75.0 

Yaw -15.0 -15.0 15.0 -7.0 

Pitch -20.0 15.0 -20.0 -20.0 

Roll 15.0 15.0 -15.0 -15.0 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor 85 7.2 6.0 1.7 3.6 3.6 

Scan Mirror 85 6.1 5.0 -0.1 2.7 3.5 

Attenuator 60 10.8 9.6 6.4 7.9 2.9 

RVDT 125 7.0 5.9 1.6 3.4 3.6 

Azimuth Motor Stator 65 21.4 20.1 20.0 20.0 1.3 

CCD 65 21.0 19.5 19.2 19.4 1.6 

CCD Controller PWA 65 22.3 19.0 20.8 18.6 3.7 

HMA 80 26.4 15.5 25.8 15.0 11.4 

HEU 80 18.7 25.3 15.7 21.4 3.9 

ICE 65 10.5 4.3 15.4 2.4 13.0 

IAM 113 27.0 14.1 22.2 4.5 22.5 

CMP1 113 22.4 13.2 17.0 4.9 17.5 

CMP2 113 28.2 4.3 30.2 1.0 29.1 

DMP 75 30.1 9.0 29.8 2.7 27.4 
34 

Figure 9: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for previous ISS extreme hot 

survival ELC case. 

Figure 10: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for new ISS extreme hot survival 

ELC case. 
35 

Table 29 shows a comparison of the new and previous orbits for the ISS extreme hot survival EOTP case. 

Once again, the large temperature changes for components that are strongly conductively linked to ExPA 

are caused by the differences between the previous ExPA temperature distribution shown in Figure 11 

and the new ExPA temperature distribution shown in Figure 12. Table 30 and Table 31 show 

comparisons between the new and previous ISS extreme cold survival ELC and ISS extreme cold survival 

EOTP cases, respectively. Note that the new ISS extreme cold survival ELC case for ICE (which was the 

same as the previous overall ISS extreme cold survival ELC case) was removed because after including 

the effects of the heaters, the ICE temperature and heater duty cycle differences from the new overall cold 

case were no longer significant enough to warrant running an extra analysis case. 

Table 29: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Hot Survival EOTP Cases 

Limits (°C) 

New Previous 

Hot Survival Change 

EOTP 

Hot Survival 

EOTP 

Hot Survival 

EOTP (IAM) 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta 75.0 -75.0 75.0 

Yaw -15.0 15.0 -15.0 

Pitch -4.1 15.0 -2.5 

Roll -15.0 -15.0 5.0 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor 85 11.0 -6.6 3.4 7.6 

Scan Mirror 85 11.3 -6.9 3.5 7.8 

Attenuator 60 13.4 0.5 7.8 5.6 

RVDT 125 10.8 -6.9 3.1 7.7 

Azimuth Motor Stator 65 20.2 19.5 19.9 0.4 

CCD 65 19.1 18.6 18.8 0.3 

CCD Controller PWA 65 21.5 18.6 19.3 2.2 

HMA 80 30.5 15.1 16.8 13.7 

HEU 80 27.1 12.7 14.1 13.0 

ICE 65 13.4 -1.5 0.3 13.1 

IAM 113 35.8 1.6 19.0 16.8 

CMP1 113 30.7 -1.6 15.8 14.9 

CMP2 113 28.3 -3.8 10.0 18.3 

DMP 75 35.3 3.4 16.8 18.5 
36 

Figure 11: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for previous ISS extreme hot 

survival EOTP (IAM) case. 

Figure 12: Orbit-averaged ExPA temperature distribution (°C) for new ISS extreme hot survival 

EOTP case. 
37 

Table 30: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Cold Survival ELC Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Cold Survival Change 

ELC 

Cold Survival 

ELC 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta -75.0 -75.0 

Yaw -15.0 15.0 

Pitch 15.0 -20.0 

Roll 13.9 15.0 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor -50 -14.5 -11.0 -3.4 

Scan Mirror -50 -15.7 -11.4 -4.2 

Attenuator -40 -5.1 -2.6 -2.5 

RVDT -30 -14.7 -11.3 -3.4 

Azimuth Motor Stator -30 19.2 19.3 -0.1 

CCD -30 18.4 18.4 0.0 

CCD Controller PWA -30 17.1 17.1 -0.1 

HMA -40 2.9 3.6 -0.6 

HEU -40 -14.7 -13.5 -1.2 

ICE -30 -8.0 -8.3 0.3 

IAM -55 -28.9 -25.0 -3.8 

CMP1 -55 -28.1 -26.3 -1.8 

CMP2 -55 -27.9 -28.3 0.0 

DMP -40 -16.8 -15.9 -0.9 

Heater Duty Cycles 

(%) 

SA Zone 1 Heater 86 83 3 

SA Zone 3 Heater 47 45 2 

HMA AC Heater 100 100 0 

HMA UP Heater 23 18 5 

HEU Heater 100 100 0 

ICE Survival Heater 99 100 -1 

IAM Survival Heater 100 100 0 

CMP1 Survival Heater 100 0 100 

CMP2 Survival Heater 98 95 3 

DMP Survival Heater 100 100 0 
38 

Table 31: Comparison of New and Previous ISS Extreme Cold Survival EOTP Cases 

Limits 

(°C) 

New Previous 

Change Cold Survival 

EOTP 

Cold Survival EOTP 

(CMP2, DMP, HEU & 

ICE) 

Cold 

Survival 

EOTP 

Orbital Elements (°) 

Beta -4.3 75.0 75.0 

Yaw -7.0 15.0 7.0 

Pitch -3.3 15.0 -2.5 

Roll 15.0 -8.7 -15.0 

Temperatures (°C) 

Elevation Motor -50 -14.3 -9.1 -10.8 -3.5 

Scan Mirror -50 -14.8 -8.8 -10.5 -4.3 

Attenuator -40 -4.9 -1.2 -2.4 -2.5 

RVDT -30 -14.5 -9.3 -11.0 -3.5 

Azimuth Motor Stator -30 19.2 19.3 19.3 -0.1 

CCD -30 18.3 18.4 18.3 0.0 

CCD Controller PWA -30 17.1 17.0 17.2 -0.2 

HMA -40 3.6 2.9 4.0 -1.1 

HEU -40 -16.1 -18.9 -15.4 -3.5 

ICE -30 -8.8 -11.2 -9.5 -1.6 

IAM -55 -24.7 -25.4 -23.0 -2.4 

CMP1 -55 -27.4 -27.2 -25.2 -2.2 

CMP2 -55 -26.6 -28.3 -26.0 -2.2 

DMP -40 -16.6 -18.7 -15.3 -3.4 

Heater Duty Cycles 

(%) 

SA Zone 1 Heater 89 89 88 1 

SA Zone 3 Heater 48 45 47 2 

HMA AC Heater 100 100 100 0 

HMA UP Heater 26 30 22 8 

HEU Heater 100 100 100 0 

ICE Survival Heater 100 100 100 0 

IAM Survival Heater 100 100 78 22 

CMP1 Survival Heater 0 0 0 0 

CMP2 Survival Heater 0 95 0 95 

DMP Survival Heater 100 100 100 0 
39 

6 Conclusions 

Revised worst-case environments were defined for both SAGE Mission Success and ISS Extreme cases 

on ELC-4 and EOTP using the EGO method. No special cases were required for SAGE Mission Success 

cases. This is desirable since those cases are run much more frequently than the ISS Extreme cases. 

By comparison, the new orbits were all more extreme than the previously used orbits. These differences 

were fairly minor for cold cases, but more significant for most hot cases. However, these changes did not 

cause temperature limits to be broken for any components. 

The EGO method provided additional confidence and identified slightly more extreme orbits than the 

orbits that would have been identified using the previous approach (simply selecting the most extreme 

runs from the initial DoE runs). The EGO method generally worked well, however, as with any 

optimization approach, the efficiency of convergence for the EGO method varies depending on the 

behavior of the objective function. For the severely multi-modal behavior of the EOTP cold ISS Extreme 

runs, the EGO method likely did not perform much better than a DoE with the same number of total runs. 

However, it was not known in advance which sets would be the most difficult. Thus a benefit of using an 

EGO approach is that it can identify which sets require the most runs. 

In the future, the size of the initial DoE could be decreased. A rule of thumb for a space-filling DoE 

matrix when used along with an EGO algorithm is 10 runs per dimension2

, which would result in 

approximately 40 runs for the SAGE III environments, compared to 64 or 79 runs for this study and 69 

runs for the previous study. The EGO algorithm would then be used to conduct the number of additional 

runs required to achieve the desired level of accuracy, likely resulting in computational savings from 

fewer total analysis runs. 

The modification to the EGO method which allowed several of the largest local maxima to be returned at 

each iteration (as opposed to only the global maximum) was found to make the method much more user 

friendly because it reduced the total number of iterations in which the user was required to read the test 

points suggested by the optimizer code and start the analysis runs in the Thermal Desktop model. This 

modification is highly recommended for similar cases in which the optimizer code is non-integrated with 

the model, or to allow several test points to be run in parallel. 

References 

 [1] Liles, K., Amundsen, R., Davis, W., Scola, S., Tobin, S., McLeod, S., Mannu, S., Guglielmo, C., 

and Moeller, T. “Development and Implementation of Efficiency-Improving Analysis Methods 

for the SAGE III on ISS Thermal Model.” Thermal & Fluid Analysis Workshop (TFAWS 13), 

July 29-August 2, 2013. 

[2] Jones, D., Schonlau, M., and Welch, W. 1998. “Efficient Global Optimization of Expensive 

Black-Box Functions.” J. of Global Optimization 13, 4 (December 1998), 455-492. 

[3] Panczak, T., Ring, S., Welch, M., Johnson, D., Cullimore, B., and Bell, D. 2012. CRTech 

Thermal Desktop® User’s Manual, v5.5

[4] SAS Institute Inc. 2012. Using JMP 10. Cary, NC: SAS Institute Inc. 

[5] http://www.mathworks.com/help/optim/ug/fmincon.html 
REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved

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Selection of Thermal Worst-Case Orbits via Modified Efficient Global 

Optimization 

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Moeller, Timothy M.; Wilhite, Alan W.; Liles, Kaitlin A.

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NASA Langley Research Center

Hampton, VA 23681-2199

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14. ABSTRACT

Efficient Global Optimization (EGO) was used to select orbits with worst-case hot and cold thermal environments for the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas 

Experiment (SAGE) III. The SAGE III system thermal model changed substantially since the previous selection of worst-case orbits (which did not use the 

EGO method), so the selections were revised to ensure the worst cases are being captured. The EGO method consists of first conducting an initial set of 

parametric runs, generated with a space-filling Design of Experiments (DoE) method, then fitting a surrogate model to the data and searching for points of 

maximum Expected Improvement (EI) to conduct additional runs. The general EGO method was modified by using a multi-start optimizer to identify multiple 

new test points at each iteration. This modification facilitates paralell computing and decreases the burden of user interaction when the optimizer code is not 

integrated with the model. Thermal worst-case orbits for SAGE III were successfully identified and shown by direct comparison to be more severe than those 

identified in the previous selection. The EGO method is a useful tool for this application and can result in computational savings if the initial Design of 

Experiments (DoE) is selected appropriately. 

15. SUBJECT TERMS

SAGE; optimization; thermal analysis

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