NISTIR 85-3273-16

(Rev. 4/01)

Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors

for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis - April 2001

Sieglinde K. Fuller

Annual Supplement to Amy S. Boyles

NIST Handbook 135 and

NBS Special Publication 709
 
NISTIR 85-3273-16

ENERGY PRICE INDICES AND DISCOUNT FACTORS

FOR LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS

Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709

April 1, 2001 to March 31, 2002

Data for the Federal Methodology for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Title 10, CFR, Part 436, Subpart A;

and for the Energy Conservation Mandatory Performance Standards for New

Federal Residential Buildings, Title 10, CFR, Part 435

Sieglinde K. Fuller

Amy S. Boyles

Office of Applied Economics 

April 2001 Sponsored by:

Building and Fire Research Laboratory The Federal Energy Management Program

National Institute of Standards and Technology U.S. Department of Energy

Gaithersburg, Maryland 20899 Washington, DC 20585

U.S. Department of Commerce 

Donald L. Evans, Secretary 

Technology Administration

Karen H. Brown, Acting Under Secretary for Technology

National Institute of Standards and Technology

Karen H. Brown, Acting Director

iii

ABSTRACT

This is the April 2001 edition of energy price indices and discount factors for performing life-cycle

cost analyses of energy and water conservation and renewable energy projects in federal facilities. It

will be effective from April 1, 2001 to March 31, 2002. This publication supports the federal life-cycle

costing methodology described in 10CFR436A and Circular A-94 by updating the energy price

projections and discount factors that are described, explained, and illustrated in NIST Handbook 135

(HB 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program.) It supports

private-sector life-cycle cost analysis by updating the energy price indices that are described,

explained, and illustrated in NBS Special Publication 709 (SP 709).
iv

PREFACE

This is the April 2001 Annual Supplement to NIST Handbook 135, Life-Cycle Costing Manual for

the Federal Energy Management Program. The annual supplement provides energy price indices and

discount factors for use with the Federal Energy Management Program's (FEMP) procedures for lifecycle cost analysis, as established by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in Subpart A of Part 436

of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR 436A), and amplified in NIST Handbook

135. These indices and factors are provided as an aid to implementing life-cycle cost evaluations of

potential energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in existing and new

federally owned and leased buildings. 

The update of the Annual Supplement to Handbook 135 is released on April 1 of each year. Its price

indices and discount factors are calculated with the most recent energy price projections from DOE’s

Energy Information Administration (EIA) and the most recent discount rates from FEMP and the

Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94. This issue of the Annual Supplement is

intended for use from April 1, 2001 to March 31, 2002. The updated editions of the NIST Building

Life-Cycle Cost (BLCC) programs are released at the same time as this Annual Supplement, for use

over the same time period. The software products are discussed below.

At the request of a number of users, a text file of the EIA energy price projections underlying this

Annual Supplement has been made available by NIST. For information on obtaining this file

(ENCOST01.txt) contact the authors by e-mail at sieglinde.fuller@nist.gov or amy.boyles@nist.gov.

The life-cycle costing methods and procedures, as set forth in 10 CFR 436A, are to be followed by

all federal agencies, unless specifically exempted, for evaluating the cost effectiveness of potential

energy and water conservation and renewable energy investments in federally owned and leased

buildings. For most other federal LCC analyses Circular A-94 provides the relevant guidelines. 

As called for by legislation (Energy Policy and Conservation Act, P.L.94-163, 1975, 92 Stat 3206,

42 USC 8252 et seq), the National Institute of Standards and Technology has provided technical

assistance to the U.S. Department of Energy in the development and implementation of life-cycle

costing methods and procedures. This is the second of a three-volume set, which together provide

the methods, data, and computational tools for federal life-cycle cost analysis.

Included in the three-volume set for federal life-cycle cost analysis are the following:

(1) Life-Cycle Costing Manual for the Federal Energy Management Program, National Institute

of Standards and Technology, Handbook 135 (1995).

The manual is a guide to understanding life-cycle costing and related methods of economic analysis

as they are applied to federal decisions, especially those subject to 10 CFR 436A rules. It describes

the required procedures and assumptions, defines and explains how to apply and interpret economic

performance measures, gives examples of federal decision problems and their solutions, explains how

to use the energy price indices and discount factors that are updated in the Annual Supplement and

in the BLCC software, and provides worksheets and other computational aids and instructions for
v

calculating the required measures. The 1995 edition of Handbook 135 is a complete revision of the

1987 edition, with updated information on the FEMP LCC requirements of 10 CFR 436A.

(2) Energy Price Indices and Discount Factors for Life-Cycle Cost Analysis, Annual Supplement

to NIST Handbook 135 and NBS Special Publication 709, National Institute of Standards and

Technology, NISTIR 85-3273.

This report, which is updated annually, provides the current DOE and OMB discount rates, projected

energy price indices, and corresponding discount factors needed to estimate the present value of

future energy and non-energy project-related costs. Request the latest edition when ordering. (This

is the report that you are holding in your hands.)

(3) NIST "Building Life-Cycle Cost" (BLCC) Computer Programs, BLCC5 and BLCC4,

National Institute of Standards and Technology. These programs use as default values the

same discount factors and energy price projections that underly the discount factor tables in

the Annual Supplement. Use versions BLCC 5.0-01 and BLCC 4.9-01 for the period from

April 1, 2001 to March 31, 2002. 

The BLCC5 program is a windowed version of the DOS-based BLCC4. It is programmed in Java,

making it platform-independent, and uses an xml file format. The BLCC5 User’s Guide is part of its

Help system. BLCC5 has two modules: 

(1) Module for Agency-Funded Projects

for LCC analyses of projects funded from direct appropriations.

(2) Module for Financed Projects

for LCC analyses of projects financed through ESPC or Utility Contracts as authorized by

Executive Order 13123 (6/99).

The other user-specific modules now in BLCC4 (e.g., for MILCON analyses, OMB analyses, and

private-sector analyses, including taxes, will be transferred to BLCC5 in FY 2001 and FY 2002,

depending on available funding. 

The BLCC4 program is designed to run on IBM PC and compatible microcomputers in a MS-DOS

environment. The current version is BLCC 4.9-01. BLCC4-associated programs are the following:

C QuickBLCC (version 2.8-01) can be used to set up multiple project alternatives for LCC

analysis in a single input file when only a limited number of inputs are needed.

C DISCOUNT (version 3.9-01) is a stand-alone program that computes present-value, futurevalue, and annual-value factors for any discount rate and study period, including UPV*

factors needed for federal LCC analyses of energy projects. 

C ERATES (version 1.11) is a stand-alone program that generates block-rate, time-of-use-rate,

and demand-rate schedules for electricity prices. It computes monthly and annual electricity

costs that can be imported directly into BLCC4 and entered manually into BLCC5.

C EMISS (version 1.00) is a stand-alone program that generates files of local air-pollution

emission coefficients for use with the BLCC4 program.
vi

The NIST BLCC programs provide comprehensive economic analysis capabilities for the evaluation

of proposed capital investments that are expected to reduce the long-term operating costs of buildings

and building systems. They compute the LCC for project alternatives, compare project alternatives

in order to determine which has the lowest LCC, perform annual cash flow analysis, and compute net

savings (NS), savings-to-investment ratio (SIR), and adjusted internal rate of return (AIRR) for

project alternatives over their designated study period. The BLCC programs can be used to perform

economic analysis of capital investment projects undertaken by federal, state, and local government

agencies, as well as by the private sector (BLCC4). In their application to federal energy conservation

and renewable energy projects, BLCC5 and BLCC4 are consistent with NIST Handbook 135, and

the federal life-cycle cost methodology and procedures described in 10 CFR 436A and Circular A-94.

In their application to private-sector and non-federal public-sector projects, they are consistent with

ASTM standards for building economics.

The U.S. Department of Energy was directed by legislation and executive order to make available to

the private sector the methods, procedures, and related aids developed for federal use. In response

to this directive, the National Institute of Standards and Technology, under sponsorship of the U.S.

Department of Energy, published a life-cycle costing book for use by the private sector entitled

Comprehensive Guide for Least-Cost Energy Decisions, NBS SP 709 (January 1987). The private

sector guide is supported by the data provided here, as well as by the BLCC4 computer program. The

BLCC4 program supersedes the NBSLCC program that is documented in SP 709.

This Annual Supplement to Handbook 135 can be downloaded from the DOE/FEMP web site at:

http://www.eren.doe.gov/femp (click on icon Technical Assistance and go to Analytical

Software Tools).

Handbook 135 can be downloaded from the NIST web site at: 

http://www.nist.bfrl.gov/oae/publications/handbooks/135.html

The latest versions of BLCC5 and BLCC4, associated programs, and user guides can be downloaded

from the DOE/FEMP web site at:

http://www.eren.doe.gov/femp (click on icon Technical Assistance and go to Analytical

Software Tools).

To order diskettes of BLCC4 and associated programs and hard copies of the above publications call

the FEMP Help Desk:

Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Clearing House

(800) DOE-EREC (800-363-3732)

or write or fax your order to:

U.S. Department of Energy

Federal Energy Management Program, EE-90

1000 Independence Avenue, S.W.

Washington, DC 20585-0121

Fax: (202) 586-3000
vii

BLCC4 may also be purchased from the following vendors:

FlowSoft

5 Oak Forest Court

Saint Charles, MO 63303-6622

(636) 922-FLOW (3569)

http://www.flowsoft.com

Energy Information Services

P.O. Box 381

St. Johnsbury, VT 05819-0381

(802) 748-5148 

NIST, under the sponsorship of DOE, conducts three workshops each year:

The two-day Basic LCC Workshop explains the underlying theory of present-value analysis and

integrates it with the FEMP criteria. The two-day Project-Oriented LCC Workshop builds on the

Basic Workshop, focuses on the use of the BLCC computer programs and applies the LCC

methodology to more complex issues. Further information is available from the FEMP Help Desk or

the DOE/FEMP web site. The third workshop is a two-hour televised course that introduces the

elements of life-cycle costing for energy and water conservation projects. For information on

registration and downlinking, contact Heather Schoonmaker, Telephone (865) 777-9869, E-mail

hbs@icx.net.

FEMP-Qualified Instructors are available to conduct LCC workshops on their own account across

the U.S. For a list of instructors call the Office of Applied Economics, NIST BFRL, (301) 975-

6134/6136 or e-mail sieglinde.fuller@nist.gov or amy.boyles@nist.gov.

Three video training films in a series entitled "Least-Cost Energy Decisions for Buildings" have been

prepared by NIST. These films include "Introduction to Life-Cycle Costing," "Uncertainty and Risk,"

and "Choosing Economic Evaluation Methods." The video films and companion workbooks can be

ordered from Video Transfer, Inc., 5709-B Arundel Avenue, Rockville, MD 20852, Telephone (301)

881-0270, Fax (301) 770-9131.

Further information on the Federal Energy Management Program can be obtained from the Federal

Energy Management Program Staff, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and

Renewable Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Please direct communication to: FEMP, EE 90,

U.S. Department of Energy, 1000 Independence Avenue, SW, Washington, DC 20585.
viii

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors wish to thank Mr. Theodore Collins of the Federal Energy Management Program of the

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) for his continued support and direction of this work. Appreciation

is extended to Susan Holte, Director, and Paul Kondis, of the Office of Integrated Analysis and

Forecasting, DOE Energy Information Administration, for providing the energy price projections

upon which this report is based. Thanks are also due to Stephen Petersen, who helped prepare this

publication, and to J’aime Maynard for her assistance in producing this document.
ix

CONTENTS

Page

ABSTRACT .............................................................. iii

PREFACE ................................................................ iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................... viii

LIST OF TABLES .......................................................... x

ABBREVIATIONS ........................................................ xiii

INTRODUCTION .......................................................... 1

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST ANALYSIS .................. 3

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs ........ 3

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs ....................... 11

B.1. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors ......................... 14

B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors ......................... 20

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real) ................ 26

PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS ....... 43
x

LIST OF TABLES

Page

A-1. SPV factors for finding the present value of future single costs (non-fuel) ........ 6

A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of future annually recurring uniform costs

(non-fuel) ........................................................ 7

A-3a UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate (3.3%) ...................... 8

A-3b UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate (3.2%) ............. 9

A-3c UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring costs changing at

at a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate (3.2%) ............ 10

Ba-1. FEMP UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and *

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.3% (DOE). Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) ....................................................... 15

Ba-2. FEMP UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and *

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.3% (DOE). Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South

Dakota, Wisconsin) . . . . . . .......................................... 16

Ba-3. FEMP UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and *

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.3% (DOE). Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) .................................................... 17

Ba-4. FEMP UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and *

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.3% (DOE). Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) ....................................................... 18

Ba-5. FEMP UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and *

fuel type. Discount Rate = 3.3% (DOE). United States average ............... 19

Bb-1. OMB UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel *

type. Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey,

New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) ........................ 21
xi

LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Bb-2. OMB UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel *

type. Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) .................. 22

Bb-3. OMB UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel *

type. Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) .............................. 23

Bb-4. OMB UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel *

type. Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) ................ 24

Bb-5. OMB UPV discount factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel *

type. Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94).

United States average .............................................. 25

Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey,

New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) ........................ 28

Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) .................. 30

Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) .............................. 32

Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming) ............... 34

Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation) by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States average .............................................. 36

Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New

Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont) ..... 38
xii

LIST OF TABLES (continued)

Page

Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin) . 39

Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of

Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North

Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia) . 40

Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado,

Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) ...................................................... 41

Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates (excluding general price inflation), by enduse sector and fuel type. United States average .......................... 42

S-1. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine,

Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island,

Vermont) ...................................................... 45

S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa,

Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

............................................................... 48

S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas,

Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland,

Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia,

West Virginia) .................................................... 51

S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California,

Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington,

Wyoming) ....................................................... 54

S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates of 3, 4, 5, and 6

percent, by end-use sector and fuel type. United States average .............. 57
xiii

ABBREVIATIONS

A - Annual amount

A - Annual amount at base-date prices 0

AEO2001 - Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (DOE-EIA publication)

ASTM - American Society for Testing and Materials

BLCC - NIST Building Life Cycle Cost computer program

COAL - Coal

d - discount rate

DIST - Distillate Oil

DOE - U.S. Department of Energy

e - price escalation rate (annual rate of price change)

EIA - Energy Information Administration (DOE)

ELEC - Electricity

FEMP - Federal Energy Management Program

FY - Fiscal Year

GASLN - Gasoline

LCC - Life-Cycle Cost

LPG - Liquefied petroleum gas

N - Number of discount periods (in years)

NEMS - National Energy Modeling System

NIST - National Institute of Standards and Technology

NTGAS - Natural Gas

OMB - Office of Management and Budget

RESID - Residual Oil

SPV - Single Present Value (factor)

UPV - Uniform Present Value (factor)

UPV - Modified Uniform Present Value (factor) *
 
 By coincidence, the 2001 maturities rates that OMB uses as discount rates are 3.2% for all maturities. This means 1

that regardless of the length of the study period, the real OMB discount rate for 2001 is 3.2%. Both short-term and

long-term discount factors are shown in the tables, but they will be identical this year since they are calculated with

the same 3.2% discount rate. 

1

INTRODUCTION

This report provides tables of present-value factors for use in the life-cycle cost analysis of capital

investment projects for federal facilities. It also provides energy price indices based on Department of

Energy (DOE) forecasts from 2001 to 2031. The factors and indices presented in this report are useful for

determining the present value of future project-related costs, especially those related to operational energy

costs. Discount factors included in this report are based on two different federal sources: (1) the DOE

discount rate for projects related to energy conservation, renewable energy resources, and water

conservation; and (2) Office of Management and Budget (OMB) discount rates from Circular A-94 for

use with most other capital investment projects in federal facilities.

The DOE discount and inflation rates for 2001 are as follows:

Real rate (excluding general price inflation): 3.3%

Nominal rate (including general price inflation): 6.1%

Projected 10-year average inflation rate: 2.7%

The DOE discount rate is based on long-term Treasury bond rates averaged over the 12 months prior to

the preparation of this report. The nominal, or market rate, is converted to a real rate using the projected

rate of general price inflation (2.7%) from the Economic Report of the President's Council of Economic

Advisors, to correspond with the constant-dollar analysis approach that is used in most federal life-cycle

cost (LCC) analyses. Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are required by 10 CFR 436 to

use the DOE discount rate when conducting LCC analyses related to energy conservation, renewable

energy resources, and water conservation projects for federal facilities.

OMB Circular A-94 on guidelines and discount rates for benefit-cost analysis of federal programs was

extensively revised in October 1992. There is no longer a single OMB discount rate as in the past. OMB

has specified two basic types of discount rates: (1) a discount rate for cost-effectiveness, lease-purchase,

and related analyses; and (2) a discount rate for public investment and regulatory analyses. Only discount

rates for the first type of analyses are included in this Annual Supplement, since the primary purpose of

this report is to support cost-effectiveness studies related to the design and operation of federal facilities.

OMB discount rates for cost-effectiveness and lease-purchase studies are based on interest rates on

Treasury Notes and Bonds with maturities ranging from 3 to 30 years. Currently (as of January 2001) five

maturities have been specifically identified by OMB, and are shown here with the corresponding real

interest rate to be used as the discount rate for studies subject to OMB Circular A-94:

Maturity: 3-year 5-year 7-year 10-year 30-year

 Rate1: 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2%

OMB suggests that the actual discount rate for an economic analysis be interpolated from these maturities

and rates, based on the study period used in the analysis. Due to limitations on the size of this Annual
2

Supplement, discount factors for only two of these maturities are presented: factors for short-term analyses

(up to 10 years) based on the 7-year real rate (3.2%), and factors for long-term analyses (longer than 10

years) based on the 30-year real rate (3.2%). As a result, these discount factors are for approximation

purposes only. It is suggested that the NIST Building Life Cycle Cost (BLCC) or DISCOUNT programs

be used to compute the present value factors for the discount rate corresponding to the length of the study

period when approximate values are not satisfactory for the project analysis. (See preface for details on

obtaining these programs.)

The energy price indices and corresponding present value factors published in this report are computed

from energy price forecasts provided to NIST by the Department of Energy's Energy Information

Administration (EIA). The EIA energy price forecast used in this report was the most recent available at

the time that this report was prepared. A description of the methodology used by EIA to project energy

prices through 2031 is included in section B of this report. DOE has not projected escalation rates for water

prices to be used in the LCC analysis of water conservation projects. Water escalation rates should be

obtained from the local water utility when possible.

Federal agencies and contractors to federal agencies are encouraged to seek energy price projections from

their local utility to use in place of the DOE/EIA regional projections, especially when evaluating

alternative fuel types. In such cases the NIST BLCC or DISCOUNT programs can be used to calculate

appropriate "modified uniform present value" (UPV*) factors for use in the LCC analysis of federal energy

conservation or renewable resource projects. Otherwise, 10 CFR 436 requires the use of the DOE energy

price forecasts when conducting LCC analyses of such projects. The UPV* factors for energy costs

presented in this report have been precalculated with the DOE forecast data. Thus the use of these UPV*

factors automatically ensures that the DOE forecast data have been included in the analysis. 

All of the tables of discount factors contained in this report are based on real discount rates and are

therefore intended for use only with economic analyses conducted in constant dollars (in which the

purchasing power of the dollar is held constant). The energy price escalation rates and corresponding

energy price indices contained in this report are also expressed in real terms. If nominal discount rates and

current dollar costs (which both include inflation) are used in the LCC analyses of federal projects, use the

BLCC computer program in the "general analysis" mode.

This report uses the term "present value" instead of "present worth" for the discount factors presented. The

meaning of these two terms is considered to be identical for purposes of economic analysis. This change

in terminology was made to be consistent with the terms used in the American Society for Testing and

Materials (ASTM) compilation of standards on building economics (ASTM Standards on Building

Economics, Third Edition, ASTM, Philadelphia, PA, 1994.)

In all of the tables, the “end-of-year” discounting convention is used, that is, all factors and indices are

computed to adjust future dollar amounts to present value from the end of the year in which they are

expected to occur. The factors and indices in this publication, which include energy price escalation rates

(e.g., UPV* factores and energy price indices), were calculated using April 1, 2001 (the date of this

publication) as their base date. However, these factors and indices can be used without adjustment for the

LCC analysis of projects with other base dates until the release of the next revision of this publication

(April 2002). Adjustment of these factors and indices for differences in the month-specific base date is not

generally warranted due to uncertainties in estimating future energy prices.
P ' Ct

x

1

(1 % d)

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P ' A x

(1 % d)

N & 1

d(1 % d)

N

' A x UPVN,

P ' A0x

1 % e

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3

PART I: TABLES FOR FEDERAL LIFE-CYCLE COST

ANALYSIS

A. Single Present Value and Uniform Present Value Factors for Non-Fuel Costs

Table A-1 presents the single present value (SPV) factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel, non-annually recurring costs, such as repair and replacement costs and salvage values. The

formula for finding the present value (P) of a future cost occurring in year t (C) is the following: t

where d = discount rate, and

 t = number of time periods (years) between the present time and the time the cost is 

 incurred.

Table A-2 presents uniform present value (UPV) factors for finding the present value of future nonfuel costs recurring annually, such as routine maintenance costs. The formula for finding the present

value (P) of an annually recurring uniform cost (A) is the following:

where d = discount rate, and

N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.

Tables A-3(a,b,c) present modified uniform present value (UPV*) factors for finding the present

value of annually recurring non-fuel costs, such as water costs, which are expected to change from

year to year at a constant rate of change (or escalation rate) over the study period. The escalation rate

can be positive or negative. The formula for finding the present value (P) of an annually recurring cost

at base-date prices (A ) changing at escalation rate e is the following: 0

or

where A = annually recurring cost at base-date prices, 0

d = discount rate,

e = escalation rate, and

N = number of time periods (years) over which A recurs.
4

Note: if the discount rate is expressed in real terms, i.e., net of general inflation, then the escalation

rate must also be expressed in real terms. If the discount rate is expressed in nominal terms, i.e.,

including general inflation, then the escalation rate must also be expressed in nominal terms. 

In tables A-1, A-2, and A-3(a,b,c) SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors are provided for both the DOE and

the OMB Circular A-94 real discount rates current as of the date of this publication. The FEMP SPV,

UPV, and UPV* factors were computed using the DOE discount rate. The FEMP factors are for

finding the present value of future costs associated with federal energy and water conservation

projects and renewable energy projects. The OMB SPV, UPV, and UPV* factors were computed

using the OMB discount rate. The OMB factors are for finding the present value of future costs

associated with most other federal projects (except those specifically exempted from OMB Circular

A-94). The DOE and OMB discount rates used in computing these tables are real rates, exclusive

of general price inflation. Thus the resulting discount factors are intended for use with future costs

that are stated in constant dollars.

NOTE: We have added to table A-3a a column of UPV* factors that incorporate an escalation rate

of -2.7%, the negative of the inflation rate used to calculate the DOE nominal discount rate for 2001.

The UPV* factors in this column can be used to calculate present values of fixed dollar amounts when

performing a constant-dollar analysis. An example might be a fixed contract payment in an ESPC

project. For these fixed amounts, the assumption that in a constant-dollar analysis all cash flows

change at the rate of general inflation (so that the differential escalation rate is zero) does not apply.

In real terms, fixed amounts change at a differential rate equal to the negative of the inflation rate.

Examples of How to Use the Factors:

SPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of a replacement cost expected to occur in the 8th year

for an energy efficient heating system, go to Table A-1, find the 3.3% SPV factor for year 8 (0.771),

and multiply the factor by the replacement cost as of the base date. 

SPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 5th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-1, find the 3.2% SPV factor for year 5 (0.854), and

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date.

SPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of a repair cost in the 15th year for a floor

covering (non-energy related), go to Table A-1, find the 3.2% SPV factor for year 15 (0.623), and

multiply the factor by the repair cost as of the base date. 

UPV (FEMP): To compute the present value of an annually recurring maintenance cost for a

renewable energy system over 20 years, go to Table A-2, find the 3.3% UPV factor for 20 years

(14.47), and multiply the factor by the annual maintenance cost as of the base date.

UPV (OMB, Short-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office

cleaning over 10 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), go to Table A-2,

find the 3.2% UPV factor for 10 years (8.44), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as

of the base date.
5

UPV (OMB, Long-term): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of office cleaning

over 25 years (for a project not primarily related to energy conservation), got to Table A-2, find the

3.2% UPV factor for 25 years (17.03), and multiply the factor by the annual cleaning cost as of the

base date.

UPV* (all): To compute the present value of annually recurring costs of water usage which are

expected to increase at 2% faster than the rate of general inflation over 25 years, find the UPV*

factor from table A-3 (a,b, or c as appropriate) that corresponds to 2% escalation and a 25 year study

period. From table A-3a (3.3% DOE discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 21.29. Multiply

this factor by the annual water cost as computed at base year prices to determine the present value

of these water costs over the entire 25 years.

UPV* (negative inflation rate): To compute the present value of an annually recurring contract

payment that is fixed over a contract period of 10 years, find the UPV* factor from table A-3a that

corresponds to an escalation of -2.7% and a 10-year time period. From table A-3a (3.3% DOE

discount rate) the corresponding UPV* factor is 7.30. Multiply this factor by the annual contract

payment as of the base year to determine the present value of these contract payments over the entire

10-year period.

NOTE: UPV factors are generally applied to costs that recur annually in substantially the same

amount. Examples of such costs are routine operating and maintenance costs. UPV* factors are

generally applied to costs that recur annually but change from year to year at a constant escalation

rate. Examples of such costs are water usage costs when they increase from year to year. These costs

usually occur every year over the service period of the building life. If there is a

planning/design/construction period before the service life begins, during which these annual costs

are not incurred, the appropriate UPV (or UPV*) factor for the service period is the difference

between the UPV (or UPV*) factor for the entire study period and the UPV (or UPV*) factor for

the planning/design/construction period. For example, if the planning/design/construction period is

3 years and the service period is 25 years, for a total study period of 28 years, the corresponding UPV

factor (from Table A-2, DOE 3.3% discount rate) is 18.09 - 2.81 = 15.28.

For further explanation and illustration of how to use these factors, see NIST Handbook 135.
6

Table A-1. SPV factors for finding the present value of 

future single costs (non-fuel)

Single Present Value (SPV) Factors

 ---------- -----------------------------------------

 Number of DOE OMB Discount Ratesa

 years from Discount rate Short term Long Term b c

 base date 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%

 ---------- ------------- ---------- ---------

 0.25 0.992 0.992 0.992

 0.50 0.984 0.984 0.984

 0.75 0.976 0.977 0.977

 1 0.968 0.969 0.969

 2 0.937 0.939 0.939

 3 0.907 0.910 0.910

 4 0.878 0.882 0.882

 5 0.850 0.854 0.854

 6 0.823 0.828 0.828

 7 0.797 0.802 0.802

 8 0.771 0.777 0.777

 9 0.747 0.753 0.753

 10 0.723 0.730 0.730

 11 0.700 0.707

 12 0.677 0.685

 13 0.656 0.664

 14 0.635 0.643

 15 0.614 0.623

 16 0.595 0.604

 17 0.576 0.585

18 0.557 0.567

 19 0.540 0.550

 20 0.522 0.533

 21 0.506 0.516

 22 0.490 0.500

 23 0.474 0.485

 24 0.459 0.470

 25 0.444 0.455

 26 0.430 0.441

 27 0.416 0.427

 28 0.403 0.414

 29 0.390 0.401

 30 0.378 0.389

 ---------- ------------- ---------- ---------

OMB discount rates as of February 2001. a

Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period. b

Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period. c
7

Table A-2. UPV factors for finding the present value of annually 

recurring uniform costs (non-fuel)

Uniform Present Value (UPV) Factors

 ---------- -----------------------------------------

 Number of DOE OMB Discount Ratesa

 years from Discount rate Short term Long Term b c

 base date 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%

 ---------- ------------- ---------- ---------

 1 0.97 0.97 0.97 

 2 1.91 1.91 1.91 

 3 2.81 2.82 2.82 

 4 3.69 3.70 3.70 

 5 4.54 4.55 4.55 

 6 5.36 5.38 5.38 

 7 6.16 6.18 6.18 

 8 6.93 6.96 6.96 

 9 7.68 7.71 7.71 

 10 8.40 8.44 8.44 

 11 9.10 9.15 

 12 9.78 9.84 

 13 10.43 10.50 

 14 11.07 11.14 

 15 11.68 11.77 

 16 12.28 12.37 

 17 12.85 12.96 

 18 13.41 13.52 

 19 13.95 14.07 

 20 14.47 14.61 

 21 14.98 15.12 

 22 15.47 15.62 

 23 15.94 16.11 

 24 16.40 16.58 

 25 16.85 17.03 

 26 17.28 17.47 

 27 17.69 17.90 

 28 18.09 18.31 

 29 18.48 18.71 

 30 18.86 19.10 

 ---------- ------------- ---------- ---------

OMB discount rates as of February 2001. a

Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period. b

Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period. c
8

Table A-3a. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring 

costs changing at a constant escalation rate, DOE discount rate.

DOE discount rate = 3.3% 

Modified Uniform Present Value (UPV*) Factors (non-fuel)

 ---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Number of Annual rate of price change

 years from -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 base date -4% -3% -2.7% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

 ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 1 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 

 2 1.79 1.82 1.83 1.85 1.88 1.91 1.93 1.96 1.99 2.02 2.05 

 3 2.60 2.65 2.66 2.70 2.76 2.81 2.87 2.93 2.98 3.04 3.10 

 4 3.34 3.43 3.45 3.51 3.60 3.69 3.78 3.88 3.97 4.07 4.17 

 5 4.03 4.16 4.19 4.28 4.41 4.54 4.68 4.81 4.96 5.10 5.25 

 6 4.68 4.84 4.89 5.01 5.18 5.36 5.55 5.74 5.94 6.14 6.36 

 7 5.28 5.49 5.55 5.70 5.93 6.16 6.40 6.66 6.92 7.19 7.48 

 8 5.83 6.09 6.17 6.36 6.64 6.93 7.24 7.56 7.90 8.25 8.62 

 9 6.35 6.66 6.75 6.98 7.32 7.68 8.06 8.45 8.87 9.31 9.77 

 10 6.83 7.19 7.30 7.57 7.97 8.40 8.85 9.33 9.84 10.38 10.95 

 11 7.28 7.69 7.82 8.13 8.60 9.10 9.63 10.20 10.81 11.46 12.15 

 12 7.69 8.16 8.31 8.66 9.20 9.78 10.40 11.06 11.78 12.54 13.36 

 13 8.08 8.60 8.77 9.17 9.78 10.43 11.14 11.91 12.74 13.63 14.60 

 14 8.44 9.02 9.20 9.65 10.33 11.07 11.87 12.75 13.70 14.73 15.86 

 15 8.77 9.41 9.61 10.10 10.86 11.68 12.59 13.58 14.66 15.84 17.13 

 16 9.08 9.77 9.99 10.53 11.36 12.28 13.28 14.39 15.61 16.95 18.43 

 17 9.37 10.11 10.35 10.94 11.85 12.85 13.97 15.20 16.56 18.08 19.75 

 18 9.63 10.44 10.69 11.33 12.31 13.41 14.63 15.99 17.51 19.20 21.09 

 19 9.88 10.74 11.01 11.69 12.76 13.95 15.28 16.78 18.46 20.34 22.46 

 20 10.11 11.02 11.32 12.04 13.19 14.47 15.92 17.56 19.40 21.49 23.84 

 21 10.33 11.29 11.60 12.37 13.60 14.98 16.55 18.32 20.34 22.64 25.25 

 22 10.53 11.54 11.87 12.69 13.99 15.47 17.15 19.08 21.28 23.80 26.69 

 23 10.71 11.78 12.12 12.98 14.36 15.94 17.75 19.83 22.22 24.97 28.14 

 24 10.89 12.00 12.36 13.27 14.72 16.40 18.33 20.56 23.15 26.14 29.62 

 25 11.05 12.20 12.58 13.53 15.07 16.85 18.90 21.29 24.08 27.33 31.12 

 26 11.19 12.40 12.79 13.79 15.40 17.28 19.46 22.01 25.00 28.52 32.65 

 27 11.33 12.58 12.99 14.03 15.72 17.69 20.00 22.72 25.93 29.72 34.21 

 28 11.46 12.75 13.18 14.26 16.02 18.09 20.54 23.42 26.85 30.93 35.79 

 29 11.58 12.91 13.36 14.48 16.31 18.48 21.06 24.12 27.77 32.14 37.39 

 30 11.69 13.07 13.52 14.68 16.59 18.86 21.57 24.80 28.69 33.37 39.02 
9

Table A-3b. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring amounts 

changing at a constant escalation rate, OMB short-term discount rate. 

OMB short-term discount rate = 3.2%a

Modified Uniform Present Value (UPV*) Factors (non-fuel)

 ---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Number of Annual rate of price change

 years from -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 base date -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

 ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 1 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 

 2 1.77 1.80 1.82 1.85 1.88 1.91 1.94 1.97 1.99 2.02 2.05 

 3 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.71 2.76 2.82 2.87 2.93 2.99 3.05 3.11 

 4 3.27 3.35 3.43 3.52 3.61 3.70 3.79 3.89 3.98 4.08 4.18 

 5 3.93 4.05 4.17 4.29 4.42 4.55 4.69 4.83 4.97 5.12 5.27 

 6 4.54 4.69 4.86 5.03 5.20 5.38 5.57 5.76 5.96 6.16 6.38 

 7 5.10 5.30 5.51 5.72 5.95 6.18 6.43 6.68 6.95 7.22 7.51 

 8 5.61 5.86 6.11 6.38 6.67 6.96 7.27 7.59 7.93 8.28 8.65 

 9 6.09 6.38 6.69 7.01 7.35 7.71 8.09 8.49 8.91 9.36 9.82 

 10 6.52 6.86 7.23 7.61 8.01 8.44 8.90 9.38 9.89 10.44 11.01 

OMB discount rate as of February 2001. a

Short-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 7-year study period.
10

Table A-3c. UPV* factors for finding the present value of annually recurring amounts 

changing at a constant escalation rate, OMB long-term discount rate.

OMB long-term discount rate = 3.2%a

Modified Uniform Present Value (UPV*) Factors (non-fuel)

 ---------- -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 Number of Annual rate of price change

 years from -----------------------------------------------------------------------------

 base date -5% -4% -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

 ---------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 1 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 

 2 1.77 1.80 1.82 1.85 1.88 1.91 1.94 1.97 1.99 2.02 2.05 

 3 2.55 2.60 2.65 2.71 2.76 2.82 2.87 2.93 2.99 3.05 3.11 

 4 3.27 3.35 3.43 3.52 3.61 3.70 3.79 3.89 3.98 4.08 4.18 

 5 3.93 4.05 4.17 4.29 4.42 4.55 4.69 4.83 4.97 5.12 5.27 

 6 4.54 4.69 4.86 5.03 5.20 5.38 5.57 5.76 5.96 6.16 6.38 

 7 5.10 5.30 5.51 5.72 5.95 6.18 6.43 6.68 6.95 7.22 7.51 

 8 5.61 5.86 6.11 6.38 6.67 6.96 7.27 7.59 7.93 8.28 8.65 

 9 6.09 6.38 6.69 7.01 7.35 7.71 8.09 8.49 8.91 9.36 9.82 

 10 6.52 6.86 7.23 7.61 8.01 8.44 8.90 9.38 9.89 10.44 11.01 

 11 6.93 7.32 7.73 8.17 8.65 9.15 9.69 10.26 10.87 11.53 12.22 

 12 7.30 7.74 8.21 8.71 9.25 9.84 10.46 11.13 11.85 12.62 13.45 

 13 7.64 8.13 8.65 9.22 9.84 10.50 11.22 11.99 12.83 13.73 14.70 

 14 7.95 8.49 9.07 9.71 10.40 11.14 11.96 12.84 13.80 14.84 15.98 

 15 8.24 8.83 9.47 10.17 10.93 11.77 12.68 13.68 14.77 15.96 17.27 

 16 8.50 9.14 9.84 10.61 11.45 12.37 13.39 14.51 15.74 17.10 18.59 

 17 8.75 9.43 10.19 11.02 11.94 12.96 14.08 15.33 16.71 18.24 19.93 

 18 8.98 9.71 10.52 11.41 12.41 13.52 14.76 16.14 17.67 19.39 21.30 

 19 9.18 9.96 10.82 11.79 12.87 14.07 15.42 16.94 18.64 20.54 22.69 

 20 9.37 10.19 11.11 12.14 13.30 14.61 16.07 17.73 19.60 21.71 24.10 

 21 9.55 10.41 11.39 12.48 13.72 15.12 16.71 18.51 20.56 22.89 25.54 

 22 9.71 10.62 11.64 12.80 14.12 15.62 17.33 19.28 21.52 24.07 27.00 

 23 9.86 10.81 11.88 13.11 14.51 16.11 17.94 20.05 22.47 25.27 28.49 

 24 10.00 10.98 12.11 13.40 14.88 16.58 18.54 20.80 23.43 26.47 30.00 

 25 10.12 11.15 12.32 13.67 15.23 17.03 19.12 21.55 24.38 27.68 31.55 

 26 10.24 11.30 12.52 13.93 15.57 17.47 19.69 22.29 25.33 28.91 33.11 

 27 10.35 11.44 12.71 14.18 15.89 17.90 20.25 23.02 26.28 30.14 34.71 

 28 10.44 11.57 12.88 14.41 16.21 18.31 20.80 23.74 27.23 31.38 36.33 

 29 10.54 11.70 13.05 14.64 16.51 18.71 21.33 24.45 28.17 32.63 37.98 

 30 10.62 11.81 13.21 14.85 16.79 19.10 21.86 25.15 29.12 33.89 39.66 

OMB discount rate as of February 2001. a

 Long-term discount rate based on OMB discount rate for 30-year study period.
 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2001, DOE/EIA-0383(2001), December 2000. 2

11

B. Modified Uniform Present Value Factors for Fuel Costs

This section presents FEMP and OMB modified uniform present value (UPV*) discount factors for

calculating the present value of energy usage for federal projects. Factors are provided for the four

major Census regions and for the overall United States. The factors are modified in the sense that they

incorporate energy price escalation rates based on future energy prices projected by DOE for the

years 2001-2031. There are two sets of UPV* tables: the "Ba" tables present FEMP UPV* factors

based on the DOE discount rate (3.3% real), and the "Bb" tables present OMB UPV factors based *

on two OMB discount rates (3.2% real for short-term study periods of 1 to 10 years, 3.2% real for

long-term study periods of 11 to 30 years). The underlying energy price indices for the years 2001

to 2031 on which these UPV* calculations are based are shown in tables Ca-1 through Ca-5. The

corresponding average energy price escalation rates for selected time intervals between 2001 and

2031 are shown in tables Cb-1 through Cb-5.

Energy Price Projections

The FEMP and OMB UPV* factors incorporate energy price escalation rates computed from future

energy prices projected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the U.S. Department of

Energy. Energy prices through 2020 were generated by EIA using the National Energy Modeling

System (NEMS) and published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2001 (AEO2001). At the request of 2

FEMP, EIA extrapolated energy prices after the year 2020 from the AEO2001 data.

NEMS is an energy market model designed to project the impacts of alternative energy policies or

assumptions on U.S. energy markets. NEMS produces projections of the U.S. energy future, given

current laws and policies and other key assumptions, including macroeconomic indicators from Data

Resources, Inc., the production policy of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the size

of the economically recoverable resource base for fossil fuels, and the rate of development and

penetration of new technologies. NEMS balances energy supply and demands with modules

representing primary fuel supply, end-use demand for four sectors, and conversion of energy by

refineries and electricity generators. Macroeconomic and international oil modules reflect the impacts

of energy prices, production, and consumption on world oil markets and the economy.

In order to produce price projections to 2031, EIA extrapolated the prices from the AEO2001 with

specific assumptions about long-term trends. To provide long-term price expectations to the post2020 projections, world oil price expectations through 2050 were calculated using assumptions of

world oil supply and demand. These expectations were used as the basis for the 2031 projections of

petroleum product prices, using the implied 2020 refinery markups to calculate the regional end-use

prices.

The EIA energy price projections presented in this report, like those of other forecasters, are

dependent on the data, methodologies, and specific assumptions used in their development. Many of
P ' Ao

x j

N

t'1

I

(2001%t)

(1%d)

t

' Aox UPV(

N

,

 For greater precision, the UPV* factors reported in the Ba and Bb tables were computed using the unrounded form 3

of the indices given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5.

 While the UPV* factors provided in this publication were computed using energy price indices that correspond 4

to energy prices as of April 1 in the current and future years, the analyst is encouraged to use for determining A0 the

energy prices prevailing as of the base date of the LCC analysis for the project evaluated.

12

the assumptions concerning the future cannot be known with any degree of certainty. Thus, the

projections are not statements of what will happen, but what might happen given the particular

assumptions and methodologies used. Although EIA has endeavored to make these forecasts as

objective, reliable, and useful as possible, these projections should serve as an adjunct to, not a

substitute for, the analytical process. The AEO2001 was prepared by EIA as required under statute

by federal legislation. The price projections to 2031 were prepared in accordance with a Service

Request from the Federal Energy Management Program. 

UPV* Calculation Method

The formula for finding the present value (P) of future energy costs or savings is the following:

where A = annual cost of energy as of the base date (April 1, 2001); o

 t = index used to designate the year of energy usage;

N = number of periods, e.g., years, over which energy costs or savings accrue;

I = projected average fuel price index given in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 (2001+t)

3

for the year 2001+t (where I2001 = 1.00); and

d = the real discount rate.

This formula is based on end-of-year energy prices and end-of-year discounting. Note that annual

energy costs as of the base date of the LCC analysis (A , to be supplied by the analyst) should reflect 0

the current energy price schedule as of that date, which may not be the same as the energy price itself

on that date. That is, the annual energy cost should reflect summer-winter rate differences, time-of- 4

use rates, block rates considerations, and demand charges (as appropriate) anticipated to be in effect

that year. If energy and demand costs are calculated separately (as is sometimes done for electricity),

the UPV* factor should be applied to both costs.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data that

are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for

guidance.
13

Northeast = Region 1

Midwest = Region 2

South = Region 3

West = Region 4

Figure B-1

Source: U.S. Census Bureau
14

B.1. FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The FEMP Modified Uniform Present Value (FEMP UPV*) factors presented in the "Ba" tables, based

on the current DOE discount rate (3.3%), are for calculating the present value of energy costs or savings

accruing over 1 to 25 years and are to be used in life-cycle cost analyses of federal energy conservation

and renewable energy projects. Factors are reported in the "Ba" tables for 30 years to accommodate a

planning/design/construction period of up to 5 years. (See "Examples of How to Use FEMP UPV*

Factors" below for instructions on use with planning/design/construction periods.) 

These factors apply only to annual energy usage or energy savings that are assumed to be the same each

year over the service period. The NIST BLCC computer program can compute the present value of energy

usage and savings which are not the same in each year.

Examples of How to Use the FEMP UPV* Factors:

FEMP UPV*, no planning/design/construction period: To compute the present value of heating with

natural gas over 25 years in a federal office building in New Mexico, go to Table Ba-4, find the FEMP

UPV factor for commercial natural gas for 25 years (16.15), and multiply this factor by the annual heating *

cost at base-date natural gas prices.

FEMP UPV*, with planning/design/construction period: To compute a present value factor for a service

period following a planning/design/construction period (1) find the FEMP UPV* factor for the combined

length of the planning/design/construction period and the service period (not to exceed 30 years), and (2)

subtract from (1) the FEMP UPV* factor for the planning/design/ construction period alone. The

difference is the FEMP UPV* factor for the years over which energy costs or savings actually accrue. For

example, suppose a new federal office building in New York is being evaluated with several energy

conserving design options. It is expected to have a planning/design/construction period of 5 years, after

which it will be occupied for at least 25 years. To compute the present value of natural gas costs over 25

years of occupancy, go to Table Ba-1 and find the FEMP UPV* factors for commercial natural gas for

5 years (4.06) and for 30 years (17.13). The difference (13.07) is the FEMP UPV* factor for natural gas

costs over 25 years, beginning 5 years after the base date. Multiply 13.07 by the annual natural gas cost

at base-date prices (not occupancy-date prices) to calculate the present value of natural gas costs over the

entire 25-year occupancy period.
15

Table Ba-1. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount rate = 3.3 percent (DOE)

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, 

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.90 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.92 0.96 0.93 0.89 0.88 0.89 0.96 0.93 1

 2 1.82 1.74 1.84 1.79 1.78 1.71 1.71 1.77 1.90 1.79 1.71 1.68 1.67 1.88 1.80 2

 3 2.66 2.56 2.70 2.59 2.58 2.51 2.49 2.56 2.79 2.61 2.51 2.46 2.40 2.75 2.64 3

 4 3.45 3.36 3.54 3.36 3.31 3.28 3.26 3.32 3.65 3.36 3.29 3.21 3.10 3.59 3.46 4

 5 4.19 4.12 4.35 4.10 3.97 4.03 4.00 4.06 4.48 4.03 4.04 3.93 3.79 4.39 4.26 5

 6 4.89 4.87 5.13 4.81 4.57 4.75 4.71 4.78 5.28 4.64 4.77 4.63 4.45 5.17 5.04 6

 7 5.56 5.59 5.90 5.50 5.12 5.46 5.41 5.49 6.04 5.20 5.48 5.31 5.10 5.91 5.79 7

 8 6.21 6.29 6.64 6.16 5.63 6.15 6.09 6.18 6.78 5.72 6.17 5.97 5.73 6.62 6.52 8

 9 6.84 6.98 7.35 6.80 6.13 6.83 6.74 6.84 7.48 6.23 6.85 6.61 6.34 7.31 7.23 9

10 7.45 7.65 8.05 7.41 6.60 7.49 7.38 7.49 8.17 6.71 7.52 7.23 6.93 7.96 7.91 10

11 8.05 8.31 8.72 8.00 7.06 8.14 8.00 8.11 8.82 7.19 8.16 7.84 7.50 8.59 8.56 11

12 8.63 8.94 9.36 8.57 7.51 8.76 8.61 8.71 9.46 7.65 8.79 8.43 8.05 9.21 9.20 12

13 9.19 9.56 9.97 9.12 7.95 9.38 9.19 9.29 10.07 8.10 9.41 9.00 8.59 9.80 9.81 13

14 9.74 10.16 10.57 9.65 8.38 9.98 9.76 9.85 10.66 8.55 10.01 9.56 9.12 10.37 10.40 14

15 10.28 10.76 11.15 10.15 8.80 10.58 10.32 10.39 11.22 8.99 10.61 10.10 9.63 10.91 10.98 15

16 10.80 11.34 11.70 10.65 9.21 11.15 10.86 10.92 11.76 9.43 11.19 10.63 10.14 11.43 11.53 16

17 11.31 11.90 12.24 11.12 9.61 11.72 11.38 11.44 12.29 9.85 11.75 11.14 10.63 11.92 12.07 17

18 11.80 12.44 12.76 11.59 9.99 12.27 11.89 11.94 12.79 10.26 12.31 11.64 11.12 12.40 12.58 18

19 12.27 12.98 13.27 12.04 10.37 12.80 12.38 12.43 13.27 10.67 12.84 12.13 11.60 12.87 13.08 19

20 12.74 13.49 13.76 12.47 10.74 13.32 12.87 12.91 13.74 11.07 13.36 12.60 12.07 13.32 13.57 20

21 13.19 13.99 14.23 12.90 11.10 13.82 13.33 13.38 14.19 11.46 13.86 13.06 12.53 13.75 14.04 21

22 13.63 14.47 14.69 13.32 11.45 14.31 13.79 13.84 14.62 11.84 14.35 13.50 12.99 14.17 14.50 22

23 14.06 14.94 15.14 13.72 11.79 14.79 14.23 14.29 15.04 12.22 14.83 13.94 13.43 14.57 14.94 23

24 14.47 15.40 15.57 14.12 12.13 15.25 14.66 14.72 15.44 12.59 15.29 14.36 13.87 14.95 15.37 24

25 14.88 15.84 15.99 14.50 12.45 15.70 15.08 15.15 15.83 12.95 15.74 14.77 14.29 15.33 15.78 25

26 15.27 16.27 16.40 14.87 12.77 16.13 15.49 15.57 16.21 13.30 16.17 15.17 14.71 15.69 16.19 26

27 15.65 16.69 16.79 15.24 13.08 16.55 15.88 15.97 16.58 13.64 16.60 15.56 15.12 16.04 16.58 27

28 16.02 17.09 17.17 15.60 13.38 16.96 16.27 16.37 16.93 13.98 17.01 15.94 15.51 16.38 16.96 28

29 16.38 17.48 17.54 15.94 13.67 17.36 16.65 16.76 17.27 14.31 17.40 16.31 15.91 16.71 17.33 29

30 16.74 17.86 17.90 16.28 13.95 17.75 17.01 17.13 17.61 14.64 17.79 16.67 16.29 17.02 17.68 30

Note: UPV* factors are reported for years 26-30 to accommodate a planning/construction period of up to 5 years. 

(See p. 14 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.)
16

Table Ba-2. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.3 percent (DOE)

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, 

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.88 0.87 0.93 0.96 0.95 0.89 0.87 0.89 0.96 0.92 1

 2 1.85 1.72 1.78 1.78 1.86 1.68 1.66 1.77 1.89 1.86 1.71 1.66 1.68 1.87 1.79 2

 3 2.73 2.53 2.61 2.57 2.73 2.47 2.42 2.56 2.78 2.74 2.51 2.43 2.41 2.76 2.62 3

 4 3.56 3.32 3.42 3.33 3.55 3.24 3.16 3.33 3.63 3.57 3.28 3.17 3.11 3.61 3.43 4

 5 4.37 4.07 4.20 4.06 4.32 3.97 3.88 4.08 4.45 4.35 4.03 3.89 3.80 4.43 4.22 5

 6 5.17 4.81 4.96 4.77 5.05 4.68 4.58 4.81 5.24 5.08 4.75 4.60 4.46 5.21 4.99 6

 7 5.93 5.52 5.70 5.46 5.74 5.38 5.26 5.52 5.99 5.77 5.46 5.28 5.11 5.96 5.74 7

 8 6.67 6.22 6.41 6.12 6.40 6.06 5.92 6.21 6.72 6.44 6.16 5.95 5.74 6.68 6.46 8

 9 7.38 6.90 7.11 6.76 7.04 6.74 6.57 6.89 7.41 7.08 6.84 6.60 6.35 7.38 7.17 9

10 8.07 7.57 7.79 7.38 7.65 7.39 7.20 7.54 8.08 7.71 7.50 7.23 6.95 8.04 7.84 10

11 8.73 8.22 8.45 7.97 8.25 8.03 7.81 8.17 8.72 8.30 8.14 7.84 7.53 8.68 8.49 11

12 9.37 8.85 9.07 8.54 8.82 8.65 8.41 8.78 9.34 8.88 8.77 8.44 8.09 9.30 9.12 12

13 10.00 9.46 9.66 9.10 9.37 9.26 8.99 9.37 9.93 9.45 9.38 9.02 8.63 9.89 9.73 13

14 10.60 10.06 10.24 9.64 9.92 9.86 9.55 9.94 10.50 10.01 9.99 9.59 9.17 10.46 10.32 14

15 11.19 10.66 10.80 10.16 10.44 10.45 10.10 10.50 11.04 10.55 10.58 10.14 9.69 11.00 10.88 15

16 11.76 11.23 11.34 10.67 10.96 11.03 10.63 11.05 11.57 11.07 11.16 10.67 10.21 11.53 11.43 16

17 12.31 11.79 11.87 11.17 11.46 11.59 11.15 11.58 12.07 11.58 11.73 11.19 10.71 12.04 11.96 17

18 12.85 12.34 12.38 11.65 11.94 12.14 11.66 12.10 12.55 12.08 12.28 11.70 11.21 12.52 12.47 18

19 13.36 12.87 12.88 12.12 12.40 12.68 12.15 12.60 13.01 12.56 12.82 12.19 11.70 12.98 12.97 19

20 13.86 13.39 13.36 12.58 12.85 13.20 12.63 13.10 13.46 13.03 13.35 12.67 12.18 13.43 13.45 20

21 14.34 13.89 13.82 13.03 13.29 13.71 13.09 13.58 13.89 13.48 13.86 13.14 12.66 13.86 13.92 21

22 14.81 14.38 14.27 13.46 13.71 14.20 13.55 14.06 14.30 13.92 14.35 13.60 13.12 14.27 14.37 22

23 15.26 14.86 14.71 13.89 14.12 14.68 13.99 14.52 14.71 14.35 14.83 14.04 13.57 14.67 14.81 23

24 15.70 15.32 15.14 14.31 14.52 15.15 14.42 14.97 15.09 14.77 15.30 14.47 14.02 15.06 15.23 24

25 16.12 15.76 15.55 14.71 14.90 15.60 14.83 15.41 15.46 15.17 15.75 14.89 14.45 15.43 15.65 25

26 16.53 16.19 15.95 15.11 15.28 16.04 15.24 15.84 15.82 15.56 16.19 15.29 14.88 15.79 16.05 26

27 16.93 16.61 16.33 15.50 15.64 16.47 15.64 16.26 16.17 15.94 16.62 15.69 15.29 16.14 16.44 27

28 17.31 17.02 16.71 15.88 15.99 16.88 16.02 16.67 16.51 16.31 17.03 16.08 15.70 16.48 16.81 28

29 17.68 17.42 17.07 16.24 16.33 17.29 16.40 17.07 16.84 16.67 17.44 16.45 16.10 16.81 17.18 29

30 18.04 17.80 17.42 16.60 16.66 17.68 16.77 17.46 17.16 17.02 17.83 16.82 16.49 17.12 17.53 30

Note: UPV* factors are reported for years 26-30 to accommodate a planning/construction period of up to 5 years. 

(See p. 14 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.)
17

Table Ba-3. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.3 percent (DOE)

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, 

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, 

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.90 0.94 0.92 0.94 0.88 0.89 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.88 0.89 0.86 0.96 0.92 1

 2 1.84 1.73 1.82 1.76 1.84 1.68 1.70 1.75 1.86 1.86 1.69 1.70 1.60 1.87 1.79 2

 3 2.71 2.55 2.68 2.55 2.69 2.46 2.48 2.53 2.73 2.73 2.48 2.48 2.29 2.75 2.62 3

 4 3.54 3.34 3.50 3.31 3.50 3.23 3.24 3.29 3.58 3.57 3.25 3.23 2.96 3.60 3.42 4

 5 4.35 4.10 4.30 4.04 4.28 3.96 3.98 4.04 4.39 4.37 3.98 3.97 3.61 4.41 4.21 5

 6 5.14 4.84 5.08 4.74 5.02 4.67 4.69 4.76 5.17 5.13 4.70 4.68 4.26 5.20 4.98 6

 7 5.91 5.57 5.83 5.43 5.72 5.37 5.39 5.48 5.91 5.87 5.40 5.38 4.89 5.94 5.73 7

 8 6.65 6.27 6.56 6.08 6.40 6.05 6.06 6.17 6.63 6.57 6.08 6.05 5.51 6.66 6.45 8

 9 7.36 6.96 7.27 6.72 7.05 6.72 6.72 6.85 7.32 7.24 6.76 6.70 6.11 7.36 7.15 9

10 8.05 7.62 7.96 7.33 7.67 7.37 7.35 7.50 7.99 7.89 7.41 7.34 6.70 8.02 7.82 10

11 8.72 8.27 8.63 7.92 8.27 8.01 7.97 8.14 8.63 8.52 8.05 7.96 7.27 8.66 8.47 11

12 9.36 8.91 9.27 8.48 8.85 8.63 8.58 8.75 9.24 9.12 8.67 8.56 7.84 9.28 9.10 12

13 9.99 9.52 9.87 9.03 9.42 9.23 9.16 9.35 9.83 9.70 9.28 9.14 8.39 9.88 9.71 13

14 10.60 10.13 10.46 9.56 9.97 9.84 9.73 9.93 10.40 10.27 9.88 9.71 8.93 10.45 10.29 14

15 11.20 10.72 11.04 10.08 10.51 10.43 10.28 10.49 10.96 10.83 10.48 10.26 9.46 11.00 10.86 15

16 11.77 11.30 11.59 10.57 11.03 11.00 10.82 11.04 11.49 11.37 11.05 10.80 9.98 11.52 11.40 16

17 12.33 11.86 12.13 11.06 11.54 11.57 11.34 11.57 12.00 11.89 11.61 11.32 10.49 12.04 11.93 17

18 12.88 12.40 12.65 11.53 12.04 12.12 11.85 12.09 12.49 12.41 12.17 11.83 11.00 12.53 12.45 18

19 13.41 12.94 13.15 11.99 12.52 12.66 12.35 12.60 12.97 12.91 12.71 12.33 11.51 13.00 12.94 19

20 13.92 13.46 13.64 12.43 12.99 13.18 12.83 13.10 13.43 13.39 13.23 12.81 12.01 13.45 13.42 20

21 14.42 13.96 14.12 12.87 13.44 13.69 13.30 13.59 13.87 13.86 13.74 13.27 12.50 13.89 13.89 21

22 14.90 14.45 14.57 13.30 13.88 14.18 13.75 14.07 14.30 14.32 14.23 13.73 12.97 14.31 14.34 22

23 15.36 14.92 15.02 13.71 14.31 14.66 14.19 14.53 14.71 14.76 14.71 14.17 13.44 14.72 14.78 23

24 15.82 15.38 15.45 14.11 14.73 15.13 14.62 14.99 15.10 15.19 15.18 14.60 13.90 15.11 15.20 24

25 16.26 15.82 15.87 14.51 15.13 15.58 15.04 15.43 15.49 15.61 15.63 15.02 14.35 15.50 15.61 25

26 16.69 16.26 16.27 14.89 15.52 16.02 15.45 15.86 15.86 16.01 16.07 15.43 14.80 15.87 16.01 26

27 17.10 16.68 16.67 15.27 15.90 16.45 15.85 16.28 16.22 16.40 16.49 15.82 15.23 16.23 16.40 27

28 17.50 17.08 17.05 15.63 16.27 16.87 16.23 16.69 16.56 16.78 16.91 16.21 15.66 16.57 16.77 28

29 17.89 17.48 17.41 15.99 16.63 17.27 16.61 17.10 16.90 17.15 17.31 16.58 16.07 16.91 17.14 29

30 18.27 17.86 17.77 16.34 16.98 17.66 16.97 17.49 17.23 17.51 17.70 16.95 16.48 17.23 17.49 30

 Note: UPV* factors are reported for years 26-30 to accommodate a planning/construction period of up to 5 years. 

(See p. 14 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.)
18

Table Ba-4. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.3 percent (DOE)

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, 

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.90 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.87 0.94 0.97 0.93 0.89 0.88 0.90 0.97 0.93 1

 2 1.85 1.75 1.86 1.81 1.82 1.71 1.67 1.81 1.90 1.80 1.73 1.70 1.73 1.90 1.82 2

 3 2.73 2.58 2.74 2.63 2.66 2.52 2.43 2.64 2.80 2.62 2.54 2.50 2.50 2.80 2.68 3

 4 3.56 3.38 3.61 3.42 3.44 3.30 3.18 3.45 3.66 3.38 3.33 3.27 3.25 3.67 3.52 4

 5 4.37 4.17 4.44 4.18 4.18 4.07 3.91 4.24 4.49 4.09 4.09 4.02 3.99 4.50 4.36 5

 6 5.13 4.93 5.25 4.92 4.85 4.81 4.61 5.01 5.28 4.73 4.84 4.75 4.70 5.30 5.18 6

 7 5.86 5.67 6.05 5.62 5.49 5.53 5.30 5.76 6.05 5.33 5.56 5.46 5.39 6.07 5.97 7

 8 6.58 6.39 6.83 6.30 6.10 6.23 5.96 6.48 6.78 5.90 6.27 6.15 6.05 6.81 6.73 8

 9 7.28 7.08 7.58 6.96 6.68 6.91 6.61 7.19 7.49 6.44 6.95 6.83 6.71 7.52 7.48 9

10 7.96 7.76 8.31 7.60 7.24 7.58 7.24 7.89 8.17 6.96 7.62 7.48 7.36 8.20 8.19 10

11 8.61 8.43 9.02 8.21 7.78 8.24 7.86 8.56 8.83 7.46 8.28 8.11 7.99 8.86 8.88 11

12 9.24 9.07 9.70 8.81 8.30 8.87 8.45 9.21 9.46 7.95 8.91 8.73 8.60 9.49 9.55 12

13 9.86 9.70 10.36 9.38 8.81 9.48 9.03 9.83 10.06 8.42 9.53 9.33 9.20 10.10 10.20 13

14 10.45 10.30 11.00 9.93 9.30 10.09 9.59 10.44 10.65 8.88 10.14 9.92 9.78 10.68 10.83 14

15 11.03 10.89 11.63 10.47 9.78 10.67 10.14 11.03 11.21 9.33 10.73 10.48 10.35 11.24 11.44 15

16 11.58 11.47 12.24 10.99 10.25 11.24 10.68 11.61 11.75 9.76 11.30 11.04 10.91 11.78 12.02 16

17 12.12 12.02 12.83 11.49 10.70 11.80 11.19 12.16 12.26 10.19 11.86 11.57 11.46 12.29 12.59 17

18 12.64 12.56 13.40 11.97 11.14 12.33 11.70 12.71 12.76 10.59 12.40 12.10 11.99 12.78 13.13 18

19 13.14 13.08 13.95 12.45 11.57 12.86 12.19 13.23 13.24 10.99 12.93 12.60 12.52 13.25 13.65 19

20 13.63 13.59 14.49 12.91 11.98 13.36 12.67 13.75 13.70 11.38 13.44 13.10 13.04 13.71 14.16 20

21 14.09 14.08 15.02 13.36 12.38 13.86 13.13 14.26 14.14 11.75 13.94 13.58 13.55 14.14 14.65 21

22 14.55 14.55 15.52 13.80 12.77 14.34 13.58 14.75 14.57 12.12 14.43 14.04 14.05 14.56 15.13 22

23 14.99 15.02 16.01 14.22 13.15 14.80 14.02 15.23 14.98 12.47 14.90 14.50 14.54 14.97 15.59 23

24 15.41 15.47 16.49 14.64 13.51 15.26 14.45 15.70 15.38 12.81 15.35 14.94 15.02 15.37 16.04 24

25 15.82 15.90 16.95 15.05 13.87 15.69 14.86 16.15 15.77 13.14 15.80 15.37 15.49 15.75 16.48 25

26 16.22 16.33 17.40 15.45 14.21 16.12 15.27 16.60 16.14 13.46 16.23 15.79 15.95 16.11 16.90 26

27 16.60 16.74 17.83 15.83 14.54 16.53 15.66 17.04 16.50 13.78 16.64 16.20 16.40 16.47 17.31 27

28 16.97 17.13 18.25 16.21 14.87 16.94 16.05 17.46 16.85 14.08 17.05 16.59 16.84 16.82 17.71 28

29 17.33 17.52 18.66 16.58 15.18 17.33 16.42 17.88 17.19 14.37 17.44 16.98 17.27 17.15 18.09 29

30 17.68 17.89 19.05 16.94 15.48 17.71 16.78 18.28 17.52 14.66 17.82 17.36 17.70 17.47 18.46 30

Note: UPV* factors are reported for years 26-30 to accommodate a planning/construction period of up to 5 years. 

(See p. 14 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.)
19

Table Ba-5. FEMP UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.3 percent (DOE)

United States Average

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.90 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.88 0.89 0.93 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.95 0.92 1

 2 1.84 1.74 1.81 1.78 1.82 1.70 1.70 1.77 1.88 1.84 1.71 1.69 1.65 1.87 1.80 2

 3 2.71 2.55 2.66 2.58 2.67 2.49 2.49 2.57 2.77 2.70 2.50 2.46 2.36 2.75 2.64 3

 4 3.53 3.35 3.49 3.35 3.45 3.26 3.25 3.34 3.63 3.50 3.28 3.21 3.06 3.61 3.45 4

 5 4.33 4.11 4.28 4.09 4.19 4.00 3.98 4.09 4.45 4.26 4.03 3.94 3.73 4.42 4.25 5

 6 5.10 4.85 5.06 4.80 4.89 4.72 4.70 4.83 5.24 4.97 4.76 4.65 4.40 5.21 5.04 6

 7 5.84 5.58 5.82 5.49 5.54 5.42 5.39 5.55 5.99 5.64 5.47 5.34 5.04 5.96 5.80 7

 8 6.56 6.28 6.55 6.16 6.16 6.11 6.07 6.24 6.72 6.28 6.16 6.01 5.67 6.68 6.53 8

 9 7.25 6.97 7.27 6.80 6.76 6.78 6.72 6.92 7.42 6.90 6.84 6.66 6.29 7.38 7.24 9

10 7.92 7.64 7.96 7.42 7.34 7.44 7.36 7.58 8.09 7.49 7.50 7.29 6.89 8.04 7.92 10

11 8.57 8.29 8.63 8.01 7.89 8.08 7.98 8.22 8.73 8.07 8.14 7.90 7.47 8.69 8.58 11

12 9.20 8.93 9.27 8.59 8.43 8.70 8.58 8.83 9.36 8.62 8.77 8.50 8.04 9.31 9.22 12

13 9.81 9.54 9.88 9.14 8.95 9.31 9.17 9.43 9.96 9.16 9.39 9.08 8.60 9.90 9.84 13

14 10.41 10.15 10.48 9.68 9.46 9.91 9.73 10.01 10.54 9.68 9.99 9.64 9.14 10.47 10.44 14

15 10.99 10.74 11.06 10.20 9.96 10.49 10.29 10.57 11.09 10.20 10.58 10.19 9.67 11.02 11.01 15

16 11.55 11.32 11.62 10.71 10.44 11.07 10.83 11.12 11.62 10.70 11.16 10.72 10.20 11.55 11.57 16

17 12.09 11.88 12.16 11.20 10.91 11.63 11.35 11.65 12.13 11.18 11.72 11.24 10.72 12.06 12.11 17

18 12.61 12.43 12.69 11.67 11.37 12.17 11.86 12.17 12.62 11.66 12.27 11.75 11.22 12.55 12.63 18

19 13.12 12.96 13.19 12.14 11.81 12.70 12.35 12.68 13.10 12.12 12.81 12.24 11.73 13.02 13.13 19

20 13.62 13.47 13.69 12.59 12.24 13.22 12.83 13.18 13.55 12.56 13.33 12.72 12.22 13.47 13.62 20

21 14.10 13.97 14.17 13.03 12.66 13.72 13.30 13.66 13.99 13.00 13.83 13.18 12.71 13.91 14.09 21

22 14.56 14.46 14.63 13.46 13.06 14.21 13.75 14.14 14.42 13.42 14.33 13.63 13.18 14.33 14.55 22

23 15.01 14.93 15.08 13.88 13.46 14.68 14.19 14.60 14.82 13.83 14.80 14.07 13.65 14.73 15.00 23

24 15.45 15.38 15.52 14.29 13.84 15.14 14.62 15.05 15.22 14.23 15.27 14.50 14.10 15.12 15.43 24

25 15.87 15.83 15.94 14.69 14.21 15.59 15.04 15.49 15.60 14.62 15.72 14.92 14.55 15.50 15.84 25

26 16.28 16.26 16.35 15.08 14.57 16.02 15.45 15.92 15.97 15.00 16.15 15.32 14.99 15.87 16.25 26

27 16.68 16.67 16.74 15.46 14.92 16.44 15.84 16.34 16.32 15.36 16.58 15.71 15.42 16.23 16.64 27

28 17.06 17.08 17.13 15.83 15.26 16.85 16.23 16.75 16.67 15.72 16.99 16.10 15.84 16.57 17.02 28

29 17.44 17.47 17.50 16.19 15.59 17.24 16.60 17.15 17.00 16.06 17.39 16.47 16.25 16.91 17.39 29

30 17.80 17.85 17.86 16.54 15.91 17.63 16.97 17.54 17.33 16.40 17.78 16.83 16.66 17.23 17.75 30

Note: UPV* factors are reported for years 26-30 to accommodate a planning/construction period of up to 5 years. 

(See p. 14 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.)
20

B.2. OMB Modified Uniform Present Value Factors

The OMB Modified Uniform Present Value (OMB UPV*) factors presented in the "Bb" tables, based

on the current OMB discount rates (3.2% short term and 3.2% long term), are for calculating the

present value of energy costs accruing over 1 to 30 years when conducting a life-cycle cost analysis

of a federal project which is not explicitly related to energy or water conservation or renewable

resources. Factors are reported in the "Bb" tables for 30 years. These factors apply only to annual

energy usage that is assumed to be the same each year over the service period. The NIST BLCC

computer program can compute the present value of energy usage and savings that are not the same

in each year.

Examples of How to Use the OMB UPV* Factors:

OMB UPV* (OMB discount rate): To compute the present value over 30 years of electricity costs

associated with the occupancy of a federal office building in Ohio (where energy conservation is not

a specific consideration in the LCC analysis), go to Table Bb-2, find the OMB UPV* factor for

commercial electricity for 30 years (16.86), and multiply this factor by the annual electricity cost in

base-date dollars.

NOTE: Because the discount rate used to calculate the Bb tables (OMB discount rate) is usually

different for years 1 to 10 than for years 11 to 30, these factors cannot be used with a planning/

design/construction period as shown above for the Ba tables (DOE discount rate). Use the BLCC or

DISCOUNT computer program for this purpose. For further explanation of the use of UPV* factors,

see NIST Handbook 135.
21

Table Bb-1. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94 )

a

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.90 0.95 0.93 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.93 0.96 0.93 0.89 0.88 0.89 0.96 0.93 1

 2 1.82 1.74 1.84 1.79 1.78 1.71 1.71 1.77 1.90 1.80 1.71 1.69 1.67 1.88 1.81 2

 3 2.66 2.57 2.71 2.60 2.58 2.51 2.50 2.56 2.80 2.62 2.52 2.46 2.41 2.75 2.65 3

 4 3.45 3.36 3.55 3.37 3.31 3.29 3.26 3.32 3.66 3.36 3.30 3.21 3.11 3.60 3.47 4

 5 4.20 4.13 4.36 4.11 3.98 4.04 4.01 4.07 4.49 4.04 4.05 3.94 3.80 4.41 4.27 5

 6 4.91 4.88 5.15 4.83 4.59 4.77 4.73 4.80 5.29 4.66 4.78 4.64 4.47 5.18 5.06 6

 7 5.58 5.61 5.92 5.52 5.14 5.48 5.43 5.51 6.06 5.22 5.50 5.33 5.12 5.93 5.82 7

 8 6.24 6.32 6.66 6.19 5.66 6.18 6.11 6.20 6.80 5.74 6.20 5.99 5.75 6.65 6.55 8

 9 6.87 7.02 7.39 6.83 6.15 6.86 6.78 6.87 7.52 6.25 6.89 6.64 6.37 7.34 7.26 9

10 7.49 7.69 8.09 7.45 6.63 7.53 7.42 7.52 8.21 6.75 7.55 7.27 6.96 8.00 7.95 10

11 8.09 8.35 8.77 8.05 7.10 8.18 8.05 8.15 8.87 7.23 8.21 7.88 7.54 8.64 8.61 11

12 8.68 8.99 9.42 8.62 7.55 8.82 8.66 8.76 9.51 7.69 8.85 8.48 8.10 9.26 9.25 12

13 9.25 9.62 10.04 9.17 7.99 9.44 9.25 9.34 10.13 8.15 9.47 9.06 8.65 9.86 9.87 13

14 9.81 10.23 10.64 9.71 8.43 10.05 9.83 9.91 10.73 8.61 10.08 9.62 9.18 10.44 10.47 14

15 10.35 10.84 11.23 10.23 8.86 10.65 10.39 10.47 11.30 9.06 10.69 10.18 9.70 10.98 11.06 15

16 10.88 11.42 11.79 10.73 9.27 11.24 10.94 11.00 11.85 9.49 11.27 10.71 10.22 11.51 11.62 16

17 11.40 11.99 12.34 11.21 9.68 11.81 11.47 11.53 12.38 9.92 11.85 11.23 10.72 12.02 12.16 17

18 11.89 12.55 12.87 11.68 10.07 12.37 11.99 12.04 12.89 10.34 12.41 11.74 11.21 12.51 12.69 18

19 12.38 13.09 13.39 12.14 10.46 12.92 12.49 12.54 13.39 10.76 12.96 12.24 11.70 12.98 13.20 19

20 12.85 13.62 13.88 12.59 10.83 13.45 12.99 13.03 13.86 11.16 13.49 12.72 12.18 13.44 13.69 20

21 13.32 14.13 14.37 13.02 11.20 13.96 13.46 13.51 14.32 11.56 14.00 13.18 12.66 13.88 14.17 21

22 13.76 14.62 14.84 13.45 11.56 14.46 13.93 13.98 14.76 11.96 14.50 13.64 13.12 14.30 14.64 22

23 14.20 15.10 15.29 13.86 11.91 14.95 14.38 14.44 15.19 12.34 14.99 14.08 13.57 14.71 15.09 23

24 14.63 15.57 15.74 14.26 12.25 15.42 14.82 14.88 15.61 12.72 15.46 14.52 14.02 15.11 15.53 24

25 15.04 16.02 16.17 14.66 12.58 15.87 15.25 15.32 16.01 13.09 15.92 14.94 14.45 15.49 15.96 25

26 15.44 16.46 16.58 15.04 12.91 16.32 15.67 15.75 16.39 13.45 16.36 15.35 14.88 15.86 16.37 26

27 15.83 16.89 16.99 15.42 13.22 16.75 16.07 16.16 16.77 13.80 16.80 15.75 15.30 16.22 16.77 27

28 16.22 17.30 17.38 15.78 13.53 17.17 16.47 16.57 17.13 14.15 17.22 16.14 15.71 16.57 17.16 28

29 16.59 17.71 17.76 16.14 13.83 17.58 16.86 16.97 17.48 14.49 17.63 16.52 16.11 16.91 17.54 29

30 16.95 18.10 18.13 16.49 14.12 17.98 17.23 17.36 17.83 14.82 18.03 16.89 16.51 17.23 17.91 30

OMB discount rate as of February 2001. a

 See p. 20 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.
22

Table Bb-2. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94 )

a

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, 

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.89 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.88 0.87 0.93 0.96 0.95 0.89 0.87 0.89 0.96 0.92 1

 2 1.86 1.72 1.79 1.78 1.86 1.69 1.66 1.77 1.89 1.87 1.71 1.66 1.68 1.88 1.79 2

 3 2.73 2.54 2.62 2.57 2.73 2.47 2.42 2.57 2.78 2.75 2.51 2.43 2.41 2.77 2.63 3

 4 3.56 3.33 3.43 3.34 3.55 3.24 3.16 3.34 3.64 3.58 3.29 3.18 3.12 3.62 3.44 4

 5 4.39 4.08 4.21 4.07 4.33 3.98 3.89 4.09 4.46 4.36 4.04 3.90 3.81 4.44 4.23 5

 6 5.18 4.82 4.98 4.79 5.07 4.70 4.59 4.82 5.25 5.09 4.77 4.61 4.48 5.23 5.01 6

 7 5.95 5.54 5.72 5.48 5.76 5.40 5.28 5.54 6.01 5.79 5.48 5.30 5.13 5.98 5.76 7

 8 6.69 6.25 6.44 6.15 6.43 6.09 5.95 6.24 6.75 6.46 6.18 5.97 5.77 6.71 6.49 8

 9 7.41 6.94 7.15 6.79 7.07 6.77 6.60 6.92 7.45 7.11 6.87 6.63 6.38 7.41 7.20 9

10 8.11 7.61 7.83 7.41 7.69 7.43 7.24 7.58 8.12 7.74 7.53 7.27 6.98 8.08 7.88 10

11 8.78 8.26 8.49 8.01 8.29 8.07 7.85 8.21 8.77 8.35 8.18 7.89 7.57 8.73 8.54 11

12 9.43 8.90 9.12 8.59 8.87 8.70 8.46 8.83 9.39 8.94 8.82 8.49 8.13 9.35 9.18 12

13 10.06 9.52 9.72 9.16 9.43 9.32 9.04 9.43 9.99 9.51 9.44 9.08 8.69 9.95 9.79 13

14 10.67 10.13 10.31 9.70 9.98 9.93 9.61 10.01 10.57 10.07 10.06 9.65 9.23 10.53 10.39 14

15 11.27 10.73 10.88 10.23 10.52 10.53 10.17 10.58 11.12 10.62 10.66 10.21 9.76 11.08 10.96 15

16 11.85 11.32 11.43 10.75 11.04 11.11 10.71 11.13 11.65 11.15 11.25 10.76 10.29 11.61 11.52 16

17 12.41 11.89 11.97 11.25 11.54 11.68 11.24 11.67 12.16 11.68 11.82 11.29 10.80 12.13 12.06 17

18 12.96 12.44 12.49 11.74 12.03 12.24 11.76 12.20 12.65 12.18 12.39 11.80 11.31 12.62 12.58 18

19 13.48 12.99 12.99 12.22 12.51 12.79 12.26 12.71 13.13 12.67 12.94 12.30 11.81 13.09 13.08 19

20 13.99 13.52 13.48 12.69 12.97 13.33 12.74 13.22 13.58 13.15 13.47 12.79 12.30 13.55 13.58 20

21 14.48 14.03 13.96 13.15 13.41 13.84 13.22 13.71 14.02 13.61 13.99 13.27 12.78 13.99 14.05 21

22 14.96 14.53 14.42 13.60 13.84 14.35 13.68 14.20 14.44 14.06 14.50 13.73 13.25 14.41 14.51 22

23 15.42 15.01 14.86 14.03 14.26 14.84 14.13 14.67 14.85 14.50 14.99 14.19 13.72 14.82 14.96 23

24 15.87 15.48 15.30 14.46 14.67 15.32 14.57 15.13 15.25 14.92 15.47 14.63 14.17 15.21 15.40 24

25 16.30 15.94 15.72 14.88 15.06 15.78 15.00 15.58 15.63 15.33 15.93 15.05 14.62 15.60 15.82 25

26 16.72 16.38 16.13 15.28 15.45 16.23 15.42 16.02 16.00 15.74 16.38 15.47 15.05 15.97 16.23 26

27 17.13 16.82 16.52 15.68 15.82 16.67 15.83 16.45 16.36 16.13 16.82 15.88 15.48 16.32 16.63 27

28 17.52 17.23 16.91 16.07 16.18 17.10 16.22 16.87 16.71 16.51 17.25 16.28 15.90 16.67 17.01 28

29 17.90 17.64 17.28 16.45 16.53 17.51 16.61 17.29 17.04 16.87 17.66 16.66 16.31 17.01 17.39 29

30 18.27 18.04 17.65 16.82 16.86 17.91 16.99 17.69 17.37 17.23 18.06 17.04 16.71 17.34 17.75 30

OMB discount rate as of February 2001. a

 See p. 20 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.
23

Table Bb-3. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94 )

a

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, 

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, 

South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.95 0.90 0.94 0.92 0.94 0.88 0.89 0.92 0.95 0.95 0.88 0.89 0.86 0.96 0.92 1

 2 1.85 1.74 1.83 1.77 1.84 1.68 1.70 1.75 1.86 1.86 1.69 1.70 1.61 1.87 1.79 2

 3 2.72 2.55 2.68 2.56 2.70 2.47 2.49 2.54 2.74 2.74 2.48 2.48 2.30 2.76 2.62 3

 4 3.55 3.35 3.51 3.32 3.51 3.23 3.25 3.30 3.59 3.58 3.25 3.24 2.96 3.61 3.43 4

 5 4.36 4.11 4.31 4.05 4.29 3.97 3.99 4.05 4.40 4.38 3.99 3.98 3.62 4.42 4.22 5

 6 5.16 4.86 5.09 4.76 5.03 4.69 4.71 4.78 5.19 5.15 4.71 4.70 4.27 5.21 5.00 6

 7 5.93 5.59 5.85 5.45 5.74 5.39 5.41 5.50 5.93 5.89 5.42 5.40 4.91 5.97 5.75 7

 8 6.68 6.30 6.59 6.11 6.42 6.07 6.09 6.20 6.66 6.59 6.11 6.07 5.53 6.69 6.48 8

 9 7.40 6.99 7.31 6.75 7.08 6.75 6.75 6.88 7.36 7.28 6.79 6.73 6.14 7.39 7.18 9

10 8.09 7.66 8.00 7.36 7.71 7.41 7.39 7.54 8.03 7.93 7.45 7.38 6.73 8.06 7.86 10

11 8.77 8.32 8.68 7.96 8.32 8.05 8.02 8.18 8.67 8.56 8.09 8.00 7.31 8.71 8.52 11

12 9.42 8.96 9.32 8.53 8.90 8.68 8.63 8.80 9.30 9.17 8.72 8.61 7.88 9.34 9.16 12

13 10.06 9.58 9.94 9.09 9.48 9.29 9.22 9.41 9.90 9.77 9.34 9.20 8.44 9.94 9.77 13

14 10.67 10.20 10.53 9.63 10.04 9.90 9.80 9.99 10.47 10.34 9.95 9.78 8.99 10.52 10.36 14

15 11.28 10.80 11.12 10.15 10.58 10.50 10.36 10.56 11.03 10.90 10.55 10.34 9.52 11.07 10.94 15

16 11.86 11.38 11.68 10.65 11.11 11.09 10.90 11.12 11.58 11.45 11.14 10.88 10.06 11.61 11.49 16

17 12.43 11.95 12.23 11.14 11.63 11.66 11.44 11.66 12.10 11.99 11.71 11.41 10.58 12.13 12.03 17

18 12.99 12.51 12.76 11.62 12.14 12.22 11.95 12.20 12.60 12.51 12.27 11.93 11.10 12.63 12.55 18

19 13.52 13.05 13.27 12.09 12.63 12.77 12.46 12.72 13.08 13.02 12.82 12.43 11.61 13.11 13.06 19

20 14.05 13.58 13.77 12.55 13.10 13.31 12.95 13.23 13.55 13.51 13.35 12.92 12.12 13.57 13.54 20

21 14.55 14.09 14.25 12.99 13.57 13.82 13.42 13.72 14.00 13.99 13.87 13.40 12.62 14.02 14.02 21

22 15.05 14.59 14.72 13.43 14.02 14.33 13.89 14.21 14.43 14.46 14.38 13.87 13.11 14.45 14.48 22

23 15.52 15.08 15.17 13.85 14.46 14.82 14.34 14.69 14.86 14.91 14.87 14.32 13.59 14.87 14.93 23

24 15.99 15.55 15.61 14.26 14.88 15.30 14.78 15.15 15.26 15.35 15.34 14.76 14.06 15.27 15.36 24

25 16.44 16.00 16.04 14.67 15.30 15.76 15.21 15.60 15.65 15.78 15.81 15.19 14.52 15.66 15.78 25

26 16.88 16.45 16.46 15.06 15.70 16.21 15.63 16.05 16.03 16.19 16.26 15.60 14.97 16.04 16.19 26

27 17.30 16.88 16.86 15.45 16.09 16.65 16.04 16.48 16.40 16.60 16.69 16.01 15.42 16.41 16.59 27

28 17.72 17.30 17.25 15.82 16.47 17.08 16.43 16.90 16.76 16.99 17.12 16.41 15.86 16.77 16.98 28

29 18.12 17.70 17.63 16.19 16.84 17.49 16.82 17.31 17.11 17.37 17.53 16.79 16.29 17.11 17.35 29

30 18.51 18.10 18.00 16.55 17.20 17.90 17.20 17.72 17.44 17.74 17.94 17.17 16.71 17.45 17.72 30

OMB discount rate as of February 2001. a

 See p. 20 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.
24

Table Bb-4. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94 )

a

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, 

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.90 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.87 0.94 0.97 0.93 0.89 0.88 0.90 0.97 0.93 1

 2 1.85 1.75 1.86 1.81 1.82 1.71 1.67 1.82 1.90 1.80 1.73 1.70 1.73 1.90 1.82 2

 3 2.73 2.58 2.75 2.64 2.66 2.52 2.44 2.65 2.80 2.63 2.54 2.50 2.51 2.81 2.68 3

 4 3.57 3.39 3.61 3.43 3.45 3.31 3.19 3.46 3.67 3.39 3.34 3.28 3.26 3.67 3.53 4

 5 4.38 4.18 4.45 4.20 4.19 4.08 3.92 4.25 4.50 4.10 4.11 4.03 4.00 4.51 4.37 5

 6 5.14 4.95 5.27 4.93 4.87 4.83 4.63 5.03 5.30 4.75 4.86 4.77 4.71 5.32 5.20 6

 7 5.88 5.69 6.07 5.64 5.51 5.55 5.32 5.78 6.07 5.35 5.58 5.48 5.41 6.10 5.99 7

 8 6.61 6.41 6.85 6.33 6.12 6.26 5.99 6.51 6.81 5.92 6.29 6.18 6.08 6.84 6.76 8

 9 7.31 7.12 7.62 6.99 6.71 6.95 6.64 7.23 7.53 6.47 6.99 6.86 6.74 7.55 7.51 9

10 8.00 7.80 8.35 7.64 7.28 7.62 7.28 7.93 8.21 7.00 7.66 7.52 7.39 8.24 8.23 10

11 8.66 8.47 9.07 8.26 7.82 8.28 7.90 8.60 8.88 7.50 8.33 8.16 8.03 8.91 8.93 11

12 9.30 9.13 9.76 8.86 8.34 8.92 8.50 9.26 9.51 7.99 8.97 8.78 8.65 9.55 9.61 12

13 9.92 9.76 10.42 9.44 8.86 9.54 9.09 9.90 10.13 8.47 9.59 9.39 9.26 10.16 10.27 13

14 10.52 10.37 11.08 10.00 9.36 10.15 9.66 10.51 10.72 8.94 10.21 9.98 9.85 10.75 10.90 14

15 11.11 10.97 11.71 10.54 9.85 10.75 10.22 11.11 11.29 9.39 10.81 10.56 10.43 11.32 11.52 15

16 11.67 11.56 12.33 11.07 10.33 11.33 10.76 11.70 11.83 9.83 11.39 11.12 10.99 11.86 12.12 16

17 12.22 12.12 12.93 11.58 10.79 11.89 11.28 12.26 12.36 10.26 11.96 11.67 11.55 12.39 12.69 17

18 12.75 12.67 13.51 12.07 11.23 12.44 11.80 12.81 12.87 10.68 12.51 12.20 12.10 12.89 13.24 18

19 13.26 13.20 14.08 12.55 11.66 12.97 12.30 13.35 13.35 11.08 13.05 12.72 12.63 13.36 13.77 19

20 13.75 13.71 14.63 13.02 12.09 13.49 12.78 13.88 13.82 11.48 13.57 13.22 13.16 13.83 14.29 20

21 14.23 14.21 15.16 13.48 12.50 13.99 13.26 14.39 14.27 11.86 14.08 13.71 13.68 14.27 14.79 21

22 14.69 14.70 15.68 13.93 12.89 14.48 13.72 14.90 14.71 12.23 14.57 14.19 14.19 14.70 15.28 22

23 15.14 15.17 16.18 14.37 13.28 14.96 14.17 15.39 15.13 12.59 15.05 14.65 14.69 15.12 15.75 23

24 15.57 15.63 16.67 14.80 13.65 15.42 14.60 15.87 15.54 12.94 15.52 15.10 15.18 15.53 16.21 24

25 15.99 16.08 17.14 15.21 14.01 15.87 15.03 16.34 15.94 13.28 15.97 15.54 15.66 15.91 16.66 25

26 16.40 16.51 17.60 15.62 14.37 16.31 15.45 16.79 16.32 13.61 16.41 15.97 16.14 16.29 17.09 26

27 16.80 16.94 18.04 16.02 14.71 16.73 15.85 17.24 16.69 13.93 16.84 16.39 16.60 16.66 17.51 27

28 17.18 17.34 18.47 16.41 15.04 17.15 16.24 17.68 17.05 14.24 17.26 16.80 17.05 17.01 17.92 28

29 17.55 17.74 18.89 16.79 15.36 17.55 16.63 18.10 17.40 14.54 17.66 17.20 17.50 17.36 18.32 29

30 17.91 18.13 19.30 17.16 15.68 17.94 17.00 18.52 17.73 14.84 18.06 17.58 17.93 17.69 18.70 30

OMB discount rate as of February 2001. a

 See p. 20 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.
25

Table Bb-5. OMB UPV* Discount Factors adjusted for fuel price escalation, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Discount Rate = 3.2% (years 1-10) and 3.2% (years 11-30), (OMB Circular A-94 )

a

United States Average

 RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL TRANSPORT

 N Elec Dist LPG NtGas Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Elec Dist Resid NtGas Coal Gasln N

 - ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -

 1 0.94 0.90 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.88 0.89 0.93 0.96 0.94 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.96 0.93 1

 2 1.84 1.74 1.82 1.79 1.83 1.70 1.70 1.77 1.88 1.84 1.71 1.69 1.65 1.87 1.80 2

 3 2.71 2.56 2.67 2.59 2.67 2.49 2.49 2.57 2.78 2.70 2.51 2.47 2.37 2.76 2.64 3

 4 3.54 3.35 3.50 3.36 3.46 3.27 3.25 3.35 3.63 3.51 3.29 3.22 3.06 3.61 3.46 4

 5 4.34 4.12 4.30 4.10 4.21 4.01 4.00 4.10 4.46 4.27 4.04 3.95 3.74 4.44 4.26 5

 6 5.11 4.87 5.08 4.82 4.90 4.74 4.71 4.84 5.26 4.99 4.77 4.67 4.41 5.23 5.06 6

 7 5.86 5.60 5.84 5.51 5.56 5.44 5.41 5.57 6.02 5.66 5.49 5.36 5.06 5.99 5.82 7

 8 6.58 6.31 6.58 6.18 6.19 6.14 6.09 6.27 6.75 6.31 6.18 6.03 5.70 6.71 6.56 8

 9 7.28 7.00 7.30 6.83 6.79 6.81 6.75 6.95 7.45 6.93 6.87 6.69 6.32 7.41 7.27 9

10 7.96 7.68 8.00 7.45 7.37 7.48 7.40 7.62 8.13 7.53 7.54 7.32 6.92 8.08 7.96 10

11 8.62 8.34 8.68 8.06 7.93 8.12 8.02 8.26 8.78 8.11 8.19 7.94 7.51 8.73 8.63 11

12 9.26 8.98 9.33 8.64 8.48 8.75 8.63 8.89 9.41 8.67 8.83 8.55 8.09 9.36 9.28 12

13 9.88 9.60 9.95 9.20 9.01 9.37 9.22 9.49 10.02 9.21 9.45 9.14 8.65 9.96 9.90 13

14 10.48 10.22 10.55 9.75 9.52 9.97 9.80 10.08 10.61 9.75 10.06 9.71 9.20 10.54 10.51 14

15 11.06 10.82 11.14 10.28 10.03 10.57 10.36 10.65 11.17 10.27 10.66 10.26 9.74 11.10 11.09 15

16 11.63 11.41 11.71 10.79 10.52 11.15 10.91 11.20 11.71 10.77 11.25 10.81 10.28 11.64 11.66 16

17 12.19 11.98 12.26 11.29 11.00 11.72 11.44 11.75 12.23 11.27 11.82 11.33 10.80 12.15 12.21 17

18 12.72 12.53 12.79 11.77 11.46 12.28 11.96 12.27 12.73 11.75 12.38 11.85 11.32 12.65 12.73 18

19 13.24 13.08 13.31 12.24 11.91 12.82 12.46 12.79 13.21 12.22 12.92 12.35 11.83 13.13 13.25 19

20 13.74 13.60 13.81 12.71 12.35 13.34 12.95 13.30 13.67 12.68 13.45 12.83 12.34 13.59 13.74 20

21 14.23 14.11 14.30 13.16 12.78 13.86 13.43 13.80 14.12 13.12 13.97 13.31 12.83 14.04 14.23 21

22 14.70 14.60 14.78 13.59 13.19 14.35 13.89 14.28 14.56 13.55 14.47 13.77 13.32 14.46 14.70 22

23 15.17 15.09 15.23 14.02 13.59 14.84 14.34 14.75 14.97 13.97 14.96 14.22 13.79 14.88 15.15 23

24 15.61 15.55 15.68 14.44 13.99 15.31 14.78 15.22 15.38 14.38 15.43 14.66 14.26 15.28 15.59 24

25 16.05 16.01 16.11 14.85 14.37 15.76 15.21 15.67 15.77 14.78 15.90 15.08 14.72 15.67 16.02 25

26 16.47 16.45 16.53 15.25 14.74 16.21 15.63 16.11 16.14 15.17 16.34 15.50 15.17 16.05 16.44 26

27 16.87 16.87 16.94 15.64 15.09 16.64 16.03 16.54 16.51 15.54 16.78 15.90 15.61 16.41 16.84 27

28 17.27 17.29 17.34 16.02 15.44 17.06 16.43 16.96 16.86 15.91 17.20 16.30 16.04 16.77 17.23 28

29 17.65 17.69 17.72 16.39 15.78 17.47 16.81 17.37 17.21 16.26 17.61 16.68 16.47 17.11 17.61 29

30 18.03 18.09 18.09 16.75 16.11 17.86 17.19 17.77 17.54 16.61 18.01 17.05 16.88 17.44 17.98 30

OMB discount rate as of February 2001. a

 See p. 20 for instructions on use; page xiii for abbreviations.
26

C. Projected Average Fuel Price Indices and Escalation Rates (Real)

Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5 present projected fuel price indices for the four Census regions and for

the United States. These indices, when multiplied by annual energy costs computed at base-date

prices (i.e., as of April 1, 2001), provide estimates of future-year costs (also as of April 1) in constant

base-date dollars. Constant-dollar cost estimates are needed when discounting is performed with a

real discount rate (i.e., a rate that does not include general price inflation).

These indices were used in the calculation of the UPV* factors for energy prices in the Ba and Bb

tables in this publication. While they are based on April 1 energy prices to maintain consistency in the

computation of these UPV* factors, the level of precision implied here is not required for most LCC

analyses. That is, the analyst need not calibrate base-year energy prices precisely to April 1, 2001

levels to use these indices (or the corresponding UPV* factors); instead, the analyst should use

current price levels as of the base-date of the LCC analysis, regardless of the time of the year that the

study is undertaken.

Example of How to Use the Indices:

To estimate the price of industrial coal in 2007 in Connecticut (in constant 2001 dollars), go to Table

Ca-1, find the year 2007 index for industrial coal (0.94), and multiply by the price for industrial coal

in Connecticut in 2001. 

For further explanation of how to use these tables, see NIST Handbook 135.

Tables Cb-1 through Cb-5 present the projected average fuel price escalation rates (percentage

change compounded annually) for selected periods from 2001 to 2031 for the four Census regions

and for the overall United States. Note that these are real rates exclusive of general price inflation.

Their use results in prices expressed in constant dollars.

The average fuel escalation rates consolidate the information provided by the indices in the Ca tables

so that trends in projected price changes can be seen at a glance. They are provided primarily to

accommodate computer programs (such as BLCC) which require price escalation rates as inputs.

Unless there is a compelling reason to use escalation rates, it is recommended that you use the indices

in the Ca tables when you need estimates of future-year energy prices, since the indices include yearto-year information rather than averages over a number of years.

Example of How to Use the Escalation Rates:

To estimate the unit price of residential natural gas at the end of 2011 (p11) in Wyoming using the

DOE energy price escalation rates, go to Table Cb-4 and find the 2001-2006 and the 2006-2011

escalation rates for residential natural gas (-2.2% for 5 years and -0.3% for 5 years, respectively).

Enter these values and the unit price of residential natural gas in Wyoming in 2001 (p01) into the

following formula. Then solve for the 2011 energy price (stated in 2001 dollars): 
p11 ' p01 x (1 % e

1

)

k

1

x (1 % e

2

)

k

2

' p01 x (1 & 0.022)

5

x (1 & 0.003)

5

' p01 x 0.8814

27

where p = Price at end of year y; y

e = Annual compound escalation rate for period i from the Cb tables (in decimal i

form); and

k = Number of years over which escalation rate e occurs. i i

Note that the compounded escalation rate factor (0.8814) corresponds to the fuel price index in

region 4, residential natural gas, for the year 2011 in table Ca-4 (0.88).

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-1 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions. The Census

regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust Territory of the

Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas should use data which

are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S. average data for

guidance. 
28

Table Ca-1. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.97 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.87 

 Distillate Oil 0.93 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.97 

 LPG 0.98 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.94 0.94 

 Natural Gas 0.96 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.83 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.95 0.91 0.88 0.83 0.78 0.74 0.69 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.66 0.67 0.68 0.68 

 Distillate Oil 0.92 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.97 

 Residual Oil 0.92 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 

 Natural Gas 0.96 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 

 Coal 0.99 1.00 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.96 0.92 0.90 0.85 0.79 0.75 0.70 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.69 0.71 0.72 

 Distillate Oil 0.92 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 

 Residual Oil 0.91 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 

 Natural Gas 0.92 0.84 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.84 

 Coal 0.99 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
29

Table Ca-1, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 

 LPG 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 

 Natural Gas 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.69 0.69 0.69 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 

 Residual Oil 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 

 Natural Gas 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 

 Coal 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.75 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 

 Residual Oil 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 

 Natural Gas 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.02 

 Coal 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
30

Table Ca-2. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, 

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 

 Distillate Oil 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 

 LPG 0.95 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.92 0.90 0.91 0.91 

 Natural Gas 0.96 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.93 0.91 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 

 Distillate Oil 0.91 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.96 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 

 Natural Gas 0.96 0.90 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 

 Coal 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.88 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.94 0.92 0.89 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 

 Distillate Oil 0.92 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.96 0.97 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 

 Natural Gas 0.92 0.84 0.81 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.85 

 Coal 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.89 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.95 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
31

Table Ca-2, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 

 LPG 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 

 Natural Gas 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.95 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 

 Natural Gas 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

 Coal 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 

 Natural Gas 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.04 

 Coal 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
32

Table Ca-3. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, 

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.98 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 

 Distillate Oil 0.93 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.96 

 LPG 0.97 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 

 Natural Gas 0.95 0.90 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 

 Distillate Oil 0.90 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.96 

 Residual Oil 0.92 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 

 Natural Gas 0.95 0.89 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 

 Coal 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.90 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 

 Distillate Oil 0.91 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.96 

 Residual Oil 0.92 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 

 Natural Gas 0.89 0.80 0.76 0.76 0.77 0.78 0.80 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 

 Coal 0.99 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.95 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
33

Table Ca-3, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, 

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 

 LPG 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 

 Natural Gas 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 

 Natural Gas 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

 Coal 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.04 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 

 Natural Gas 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.07 1.08 

 Coal 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
34

Table Ca-4. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.97 0.96 0.97 0.95 0.94 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 

 Distillate Oil 0.93 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 

 LPG 0.98 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.00 1.01 1.02 

 Natural Gas 0.97 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.89 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.97 0.94 0.93 0.89 0.86 0.82 0.80 0.79 0.78 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.78 0.78 0.78 

 Distillate Oil 0.92 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 

 Natural Gas 0.97 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 

 Coal 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.96 0.92 0.91 0.87 0.83 0.78 0.75 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.71 0.71 0.72 0.72 0.73 

 Distillate Oil 0.92 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 

 Residual Oil 0.91 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 

 Natural Gas 0.93 0.88 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 

 Coal 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
35

Table Ca-4, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 

 LPG 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.03 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 1.04 

 Natural Gas 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.79 0.79 0.78 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.81 

 Distillate Oil 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 

 Natural Gas 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1.07 

 Coal 0.91 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.74 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 

 Residual Oil 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 

 Natural Gas 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.10 1.11 1.12 

 Coal 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
36

Table Ca-5. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 

 Distillate Oil 0.93 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.96 0.97 

 LPG 0.97 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.94 0.94 

 Natural Gas 0.96 0.91 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.97 0.94 0.93 0.90 0.87 0.84 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.80 0.81 

 Distillate Oil 0.91 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.95 0.96 

 Residual Oil 0.92 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 

 Natural Gas 0.96 0.90 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 

 Coal 0.99 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.90 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.92 0.89 0.86 0.84 0.83 0.83 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.83 

 Distillate Oil 0.91 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.95 0.96 

 Residual Oil 0.91 0.86 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.89 

 Natural Gas 0.91 0.83 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.85 0.86 0.87 

 Coal 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.91 0.90 0.89 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.96 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
37

Table Ca-5, continued. Projected fuel price indices (excluding general inflation), by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 Sector and Fuel 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.96 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 

 LPG 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.96 

 Natural Gas 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.93 

Commercial 

 Electricity 0.81 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.85 

 Distillate Oil 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 

 Natural Gas 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 

 Coal 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 

Industrial 

 Electricity 0.84 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.87 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.89 0.89 

 Distillate Oil 0.97 0.98 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.01 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.03 

 Residual Oil 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.96 

 Natural Gas 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.06 1.07 

 Coal 0.89 0.88 0.88 0.87 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 0.86 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline 0.94 0.94 0.93 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.95 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
38

Table Cb-1. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Percentage change compounded annually

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -2.6 -0.6 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.5 

 Distillate Oil -2.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 

 LPG -1.0 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 

 Natural Gas -2.8 -0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.6 0.6 

Commercial 

 Electricity -4.9 -3.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 

 Distillate Oil -2.6 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -2.7 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 

 Natural Gas -2.7 0.4 -0.1 0.7 0.9 0.8 

 Coal -0.5 -0.6 -0.6 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 

Industrial 

 Electricity -4.6 -3.1 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 

 Distillate Oil -2.6 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -3.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 

 Natural Gas -4.3 0.3 0.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 

 Coal -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline -1.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
39

Table Cb-2. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, 

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Percentage change compounded annually

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -0.8 -0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -0.0 

 Distillate Oil -2.4 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.3 

 LPG -1.8 0.4 -0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 

 Natural Gas -2.9 -0.3 -0.0 0.7 0.8 0.8 

Commercial 

 Electricity -1.8 -1.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 

 Distillate Oil -3.0 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 

 Residual Oil -3.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 

 Natural Gas -2.5 0.5 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.9 

 Coal -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 

Industrial 

 Electricity -1.8 -1.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 

 Distillate Oil -2.6 0.9 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -3.2 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 

 Natural Gas -4.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 1.2 1.1 

 Coal -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 0.0 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline -1.5 0.2 -0.3 -0.0 0.2 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
40

Table Cb-3. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia,

Kentucky, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Percentage change compounded annually

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -0.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 

 Distillate Oil -2.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.2 

 LPG -1.3 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 

 Natural Gas -3.0 -0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.7 

Commercial 

 Electricity -1.8 -1.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 

 Distillate Oil -3.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -2.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 

 Natural Gas -2.6 0.7 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.8 

 Coal -0.9 -0.7 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 

Industrial 

 Electricity -1.2 -0.9 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.2 

 Distillate Oil -2.9 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -2.9 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 

 Natural Gas -5.1 1.1 1.2 2.0 1.3 1.3 

 Coal -0.9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline -1.6 0.2 -0.3 -0.0 0.2 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
41

Table Cb-4. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana, 

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Percentage change compounded annually

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -1.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 

 Distillate Oil -1.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 

 LPG -0.4 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 

 Natural Gas -2.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.8 0.8 

Commercial 

 Electricity -2.9 -2.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 

 Distillate Oil -2.1 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -3.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 

 Natural Gas -1.5 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 

 Coal -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.3 0.0 

Industrial 

 Electricity -3.7 -2.8 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 

 Distillate Oil -2.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -2.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 

 Natural Gas -2.9 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.2 

 Coal -0.4 -0.7 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 0.0 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline -0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 0.2 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
42

Table Cb-5. Projected average fuel price escalation rates, excluding general inflation,

by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Percentage change compounded annually

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 

 Sector and Fuel to to to to to to 

 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 

Residential 

 Electricity -1.3 -0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 

 Distillate Oil -2.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.2 

 LPG -1.3 0.4 -0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 

 Natural Gas -2.8 -0.3 -0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 

Commercial 

 Electricity -2.7 -1.8 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 

 Distillate Oil -2.8 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -2.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 

 Natural Gas -2.4 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 

 Coal -0.7 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 0.0 

Industrial 

 Electricity -2.3 -1.6 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.4 

 Distillate Oil -2.6 0.8 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.3 

 Residual Oil -3.0 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 

 Natural Gas -4.5 0.8 1.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 

 Coal -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 

Transportation 

 Motor Gasoline -1.2 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.2 

----------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 
I

S

' ICx (1 % g)

N

,

43

PART II: ENERGY PRICE INDICES FOR PRIVATE

SECTOR LCC ANALYSIS

This section presents tables of projected nominal (i.e., including inflation) fuel price indices for four

fuels in the residential sector and five fuels in the commercial sector for each of the years from 2001

through 2031. These price indices are based on the DOE energy price projections, reported in part

I-B of this document, used to calculate the FEMP and OMB UPV* factors for energy costs. The

tables are provided as an update to similar tables originally published in Comprehensive Guide for

Least-Cost Energy Decisions (NBS SP 709).

As a convenience for the user, the indices include the effect of four alternative, hypothetical rates of

general price inflation: 2, 3, 4, and 5%. Selection of these rates is in no way intended to suggest what

actual rates might be. Use of the indices produce price estimates which are in current dollars, inclusive

of general price inflation. Current dollar prices are needed when discounting is performed with

discount rates that include general price inflation (i.e., nominal or market discount rates).

The indices based on inflation rates of 2, 3, 4, and 5% allow the analyst to perform evaluations based

on the assumption of a positive rate of general price inflation that changes the purchasing power of

the dollar. Performing evaluations in current dollars is sometimes preferred for private investment

decisions, primarily because it facilitates the treatment of taxes.

The indices in Tables S-1 through S-5 are derived from the indices reported in Tables Ca-1 through

Ca-5 by means of the following equation:

where I = index found in Tables S-1 through S-5; S

I = index found in Tables Ca-1 through Ca-5; C

g = annual rate of general price inflation in decimal form; and

N = number of years, in this case equal to the year of the index minus 2001.

 

Example of How to Use the Indices:

Suppose you wish to estimate the annual cost of natural gas for a house in Maryland in year 2004,

given the annual cost in 2001 (April 1) prices, and you expect an annual inflation rate of 3% per year.

From table S-3, find the column with residential natural gas indices at an inflation rate of 3%; then

locate the index for the year 2004. This index is 0.95. Multiply the annual cost in 2001 prices to find

the estimated annual cost in year-2004 prices. 

If this annual cost in year-2004 prices is to be discounted to present value, you must use a nominal

discount rate that includes the same assumption with regard to general price inflation (3% in this

example). To obtain a present-value cost over the entire study period, the present-value calculation

must be repeated for each year that there are natural gas costs, and the results summed. (UPV*
44

factors are not given for private sector use because of the large number of tables required to cover

potential discount rates that might be used by the analyst.) The BLCC computer program can perform

LCC analyses using any inflation rate and discount rate, in constant or in current (market) dollars. The

DISCOUNT program, included with BLCC, can compute UPV* factors based on DOE energy price

escalation rates using any inflation rate and discount rate. (See page iv for more information on these

programs.) Of course, the private sector analyst may use the UPV* factors reported in Part I,

provided the analysis is performed in constant dollars and the desired discount rate corresponds to

the DOE or OMB discount rates used in Part I.

For further explanation of the use of these indices, see NBS Special Publication 709, appendix B,

Part I.

The data in the tables that follow are reported for the four Census regions and the U.S. average.

Figure B-1 on page 13 presents a map showing the states corresponding to the four Census regions.

The Census regions do not include American Samoa, Canal Zone, Guam, Puerto Rico, Trust

Territory of the Pacific Islands, or the Virgin Islands. Analysts of federal projects in these areas

should use data which are "reasonable under the circumstances," and may refer to the tables with U.S.

average data for guidance.
45

Table S-1. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 ------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL----------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural Gas 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 

2003 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.99 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 

2004 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.07 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.02 

2005 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.16 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.06 

2006 0.97 1.01 1.06 1.12 0.99 1.04 1.09 1.15 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.21 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 

2007 0.97 1.02 1.08 1.15 1.02 1.08 1.15 1.21 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.28 0.98 1.03 1.10 1.16 

2008 0.97 1.03 1.11 1.18 1.04 1.12 1.20 1.28 1.10 1.18 1.26 1.35 0.99 1.06 1.14 1.22 

2009 0.98 1.06 1.15 1.24 1.07 1.16 1.25 1.35 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.42 1.01 1.09 1.18 1.27 

2010 1.01 1.10 1.20 1.31 1.10 1.20 1.31 1.43 1.15 1.25 1.37 1.49 1.02 1.11 1.22 1.33 

2011 1.03 1.14 1.26 1.38 1.13 1.25 1.37 1.51 1.17 1.29 1.42 1.56 1.03 1.14 1.26 1.38 

2012 1.06 1.18 1.31 1.46 1.16 1.29 1.43 1.59 1.20 1.33 1.48 1.65 1.05 1.17 1.30 1.44 

2013 1.08 1.22 1.37 1.53 1.19 1.34 1.50 1.68 1.20 1.35 1.52 1.70 1.06 1.19 1.34 1.51 

2014 1.11 1.26 1.43 1.62 1.22 1.38 1.57 1.77 1.20 1.37 1.55 1.75 1.08 1.22 1.39 1.57 

2015 1.15 1.32 1.51 1.72 1.26 1.45 1.66 1.90 1.24 1.42 1.62 1.86 1.10 1.26 1.44 1.64 

2016 1.18 1.36 1.57 1.82 1.30 1.50 1.74 2.01 1.26 1.46 1.69 1.95 1.11 1.29 1.49 1.72 

2017 1.20 1.41 1.64 1.91 1.33 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.29 1.50 1.75 2.04 1.14 1.33 1.55 1.81 

2018 1.23 1.45 1.71 2.01 1.37 1.61 1.90 2.24 1.31 1.55 1.82 2.15 1.16 1.37 1.61 1.90 

2019 1.25 1.49 1.78 2.11 1.40 1.67 1.99 2.36 1.34 1.60 1.90 2.26 1.18 1.41 1.68 2.00 

2020 1.29 1.55 1.86 2.23 1.43 1.73 2.07 2.49 1.36 1.64 1.97 2.37 1.21 1.46 1.76 2.11 

2021 1.32 1.61 1.95 2.36 1.46 1.78 2.16 2.61 1.39 1.69 2.05 2.49 1.25 1.52 1.84 2.23 

2022 1.35 1.66 2.04 2.49 1.50 1.84 2.25 2.75 1.42 1.75 2.14 2.61 1.28 1.57 1.92 2.35 

2023 1.39 1.72 2.13 2.63 1.53 1.90 2.34 2.89 1.45 1.80 2.23 2.75 1.31 1.63 2.01 2.48 

2024 1.42 1.78 2.22 2.77 1.56 1.96 2.44 3.05 1.48 1.86 2.32 2.89 1.35 1.69 2.11 2.62 

2025 1.46 1.84 2.32 2.92 1.60 2.02 2.55 3.21 1.51 1.91 2.41 3.04 1.38 1.75 2.20 2.77 

2026 1.49 1.90 2.42 3.08 1.63 2.09 2.66 3.37 1.55 1.97 2.51 3.19 1.42 1.81 2.31 2.93 

2027 1.53 1.97 2.53 3.25 1.67 2.15 2.77 3.55 1.58 2.04 2.62 3.36 1.46 1.88 2.41 3.10 

2028 1.57 2.04 2.65 3.43 1.71 2.22 2.89 3.74 1.61 2.10 2.72 3.53 1.50 1.95 2.53 3.27 

2029 1.61 2.11 2.77 3.61 1.75 2.30 3.01 3.93 1.65 2.16 2.84 3.71 1.54 2.02 2.65 3.46 

2030 1.64 2.18 2.89 3.81 1.79 2.37 3.14 4.14 1.68 2.23 2.95 3.90 1.58 2.09 2.77 3.66 

2031 1.69 2.26 3.02 4.02 1.83 2.45 3.27 4.36 1.72 2.30 3.08 4.10 1.62 2.17 2.90 3.86
46

Table S-1, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 --------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

2003 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.00 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.04 1.06 1.08 1.10 

2004 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.00 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 

2005 0.90 0.94 0.97 1.01 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 0.94 0.98 1.01 1.05 0.94 0.98 1.01 1.05 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.18 

2006 0.86 0.90 0.95 0.99 0.97 1.02 1.07 1.12 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 1.07 1.13 1.18 1.24 

2007 0.83 0.88 0.93 0.99 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.18 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.17 0.99 1.05 1.11 1.18 1.10 1.16 1.23 1.30 

2008 0.79 0.85 0.90 0.97 1.02 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.00 1.08 1.15 1.23 1.02 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.10 1.18 1.26 1.35 

2009 0.78 0.84 0.91 0.98 1.05 1.13 1.23 1.32 1.03 1.11 1.20 1.30 1.04 1.13 1.22 1.31 1.12 1.21 1.30 1.41 

2010 0.79 0.86 0.94 1.03 1.09 1.19 1.30 1.41 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.36 1.07 1.16 1.27 1.39 1.13 1.23 1.35 1.47 

2011 0.80 0.88 0.97 1.07 1.11 1.23 1.35 1.49 1.08 1.19 1.31 1.44 1.09 1.20 1.32 1.45 1.15 1.27 1.40 1.54 

2012 0.82 0.91 1.01 1.13 1.14 1.27 1.42 1.57 1.10 1.23 1.36 1.52 1.10 1.23 1.36 1.52 1.17 1.30 1.45 1.61 

2013 0.84 0.94 1.06 1.19 1.18 1.32 1.49 1.67 1.13 1.27 1.43 1.60 1.12 1.26 1.42 1.59 1.19 1.34 1.50 1.69 

2014 0.86 0.98 1.11 1.26 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.76 1.16 1.31 1.49 1.69 1.14 1.30 1.47 1.67 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.76 

2015 0.89 1.03 1.17 1.34 1.26 1.44 1.65 1.89 1.19 1.36 1.56 1.78 1.17 1.34 1.53 1.75 1.22 1.40 1.60 1.83 

2016 0.92 1.07 1.23 1.42 1.30 1.50 1.74 2.01 1.22 1.41 1.63 1.88 1.19 1.38 1.60 1.84 1.24 1.43 1.65 1.91 

2017 0.95 1.11 1.29 1.50 1.33 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.24 1.45 1.70 1.98 1.22 1.43 1.67 1.95 1.25 1.46 1.71 1.99 

2018 0.97 1.14 1.34 1.58 1.37 1.62 1.91 2.25 1.27 1.50 1.77 2.09 1.25 1.48 1.74 2.05 1.27 1.50 1.76 2.08 

2019 0.99 1.18 1.40 1.67 1.41 1.68 2.00 2.38 1.30 1.55 1.85 2.20 1.29 1.53 1.82 2.17 1.28 1.53 1.82 2.16 

2020 1.02 1.23 1.48 1.77 1.44 1.74 2.09 2.50 1.34 1.61 1.93 2.32 1.33 1.60 1.92 2.30 1.31 1.58 1.89 2.27 

2021 1.05 1.28 1.55 1.88 1.47 1.79 2.17 2.63 1.37 1.67 2.02 2.45 1.37 1.66 2.02 2.44 1.33 1.61 1.95 2.37 

2022 1.08 1.33 1.62 1.99 1.51 1.85 2.27 2.77 1.40 1.72 2.11 2.58 1.41 1.73 2.11 2.59 1.35 1.66 2.03 2.48 

2023 1.11 1.37 1.70 2.10 1.54 1.91 2.37 2.92 1.44 1.78 2.20 2.72 1.45 1.79 2.22 2.74 1.37 1.70 2.10 2.59 

2024 1.14 1.42 1.78 2.22 1.58 1.98 2.47 3.08 1.47 1.84 2.30 2.87 1.49 1.86 2.33 2.90 1.40 1.75 2.18 2.72 

2025 1.17 1.48 1.86 2.34 1.62 2.04 2.58 3.24 1.51 1.91 2.41 3.03 1.53 1.94 2.44 3.07 1.41 1.79 2.25 2.83 

2026 1.20 1.53 1.95 2.47 1.65 2.11 2.68 3.41 1.55 1.97 2.51 3.19 1.57 2.01 2.56 3.25 1.44 1.84 2.34 2.97 

2027 1.23 1.59 2.04 2.61 1.69 2.18 2.80 3.59 1.59 2.04 2.63 3.37 1.62 2.09 2.68 3.44 1.47 1.89 2.44 3.12 

2028 1.26 1.64 2.13 2.76 1.73 2.25 2.92 3.78 1.63 2.12 2.75 3.56 1.67 2.17 2.81 3.64 1.50 1.95 2.53 3.28 

2029 1.30 1.70 2.23 2.92 1.77 2.33 3.05 3.98 1.67 2.19 2.87 3.75 1.71 2.25 2.95 3.86 1.53 2.01 2.63 3.44 

2030 1.33 1.76 2.33 3.08 1.81 2.40 3.18 4.20 1.71 2.27 3.00 3.96 1.76 2.34 3.09 4.08 1.56 2.07 2.74 3.62 

2031 1.36 1.83 2.44 3.26 1.85 2.48 3.32 4.42 1.75 2.34 3.13 4.17 1.81 2.43 3.24 4.32 1.59 2.13 2.85 3.80 
47

 Table S-1, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

 of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

 Census Region 1 (Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

 New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)

 Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 ---------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL-----------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 0.94 0.95 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

2003 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.92 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 

2004 0.96 0.99 1.01 1.04 0.94 0.96 0.99 1.02 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.99 0.85 0.88 0.90 0.93 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 

2005 0.92 0.95 0.99 1.03 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.03 0.86 0.90 0.93 0.97 1.03 1.07 1.12 1.16 

2006 0.87 0.92 0.96 1.01 0.97 1.02 1.07 1.12 0.94 0.99 1.04 1.09 0.89 0.93 0.98 1.02 1.05 1.10 1.15 1.21 

2007 0.84 0.89 0.94 1.00 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19 0.96 1.02 1.08 1.14 0.91 0.97 1.02 1.09 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.26 

2008 0.80 0.86 0.92 0.98 1.03 1.10 1.17 1.26 0.98 1.05 1.12 1.20 0.94 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.07 1.15 1.23 1.31 

2009 0.79 0.86 0.93 1.00 1.05 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.26 0.95 1.03 1.11 1.20 1.08 1.17 1.26 1.37 

2010 0.81 0.88 0.97 1.05 1.09 1.19 1.30 1.41 1.03 1.12 1.22 1.33 0.98 1.07 1.16 1.27 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.42 

2011 0.82 0.91 1.00 1.10 1.12 1.23 1.36 1.49 1.05 1.16 1.28 1.41 1.00 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.11 1.22 1.35 1.48 

2012 0.84 0.94 1.04 1.16 1.15 1.28 1.42 1.58 1.08 1.20 1.33 1.48 1.02 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.12 1.25 1.39 1.54 

2013 0.87 0.97 1.09 1.23 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 1.11 1.24 1.40 1.57 1.04 1.17 1.31 1.47 1.15 1.30 1.46 1.63 

2014 0.90 1.02 1.15 1.30 1.21 1.37 1.56 1.76 1.13 1.28 1.46 1.65 1.06 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.17 1.32 1.50 1.70 

2015 0.93 1.07 1.23 1.40 1.26 1.45 1.66 1.89 1.16 1.33 1.52 1.74 1.09 1.25 1.43 1.64 1.18 1.35 1.55 1.77 

2016 0.96 1.12 1.29 1.49 1.30 1.51 1.74 2.01 1.19 1.38 1.59 1.84 1.13 1.31 1.51 1.74 1.18 1.37 1.58 1.83 

2017 1.00 1.17 1.36 1.59 1.34 1.56 1.82 2.13 1.22 1.42 1.66 1.94 1.17 1.36 1.59 1.85 1.20 1.40 1.63 1.90 

2018 1.02 1.21 1.42 1.68 1.38 1.62 1.91 2.25 1.25 1.47 1.74 2.04 1.20 1.42 1.67 1.97 1.21 1.43 1.68 1.98 

2019 1.05 1.26 1.49 1.77 1.41 1.69 2.01 2.38 1.28 1.52 1.81 2.15 1.24 1.48 1.77 2.10 1.23 1.47 1.75 2.08 

2020 1.10 1.32 1.59 1.91 1.45 1.74 2.09 2.51 1.31 1.58 1.89 2.27 1.30 1.56 1.88 2.25 1.26 1.51 1.82 2.18 

2021 1.14 1.38 1.68 2.03 1.48 1.79 2.18 2.64 1.34 1.63 1.98 2.39 1.34 1.63 1.98 2.40 1.27 1.55 1.88 2.27 

2022 1.18 1.44 1.77 2.16 1.51 1.85 2.27 2.78 1.37 1.69 2.07 2.53 1.38 1.70 2.08 2.55 1.30 1.59 1.95 2.38 

2023 1.21 1.50 1.86 2.29 1.55 1.92 2.37 2.93 1.41 1.75 2.16 2.67 1.43 1.77 2.19 2.71 1.31 1.63 2.01 2.48 

2024 1.25 1.56 1.95 2.43 1.58 1.98 2.47 3.08 1.45 1.81 2.26 2.82 1.48 1.85 2.31 2.87 1.34 1.67 2.09 2.61 

2025 1.29 1.63 2.06 2.59 1.62 2.05 2.58 3.25 1.48 1.87 2.36 2.97 1.52 1.92 2.43 3.05 1.35 1.71 2.16 2.71 

2026 1.33 1.70 2.16 2.75 1.65 2.11 2.69 3.41 1.52 1.94 2.47 3.14 1.57 2.01 2.55 3.24 1.38 1.76 2.24 2.85 

2027 1.37 1.77 2.27 2.92 1.69 2.18 2.80 3.60 1.56 2.01 2.58 3.31 1.62 2.09 2.69 3.45 1.41 1.81 2.33 2.99 

2028 1.42 1.84 2.39 3.10 1.73 2.25 2.93 3.79 1.60 2.08 2.69 3.49 1.67 2.18 2.83 3.66 1.44 1.87 2.42 3.14 

2029 1.46 1.92 2.51 3.29 1.77 2.33 3.05 3.99 1.64 2.15 2.82 3.68 1.73 2.27 2.97 3.89 1.46 1.92 2.52 3.30 

2030 1.51 2.00 2.64 3.49 1.81 2.41 3.18 4.20 1.68 2.23 2.95 3.89 1.78 2.36 3.13 4.13 1.49 1.98 2.62 3.46 

2031 1.55 2.08 2.78 3.71 1.85 2.49 3.32 4.43 1.72 2.30 3.08 4.10 1.84 2.46 3.29 4.39 1.52 2.04 2.73 3.63 
48

Table S-2. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, 

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 -------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL---------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural Gas 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 

2003 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.01 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 

2004 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 0.95 0.97 1.00 1.03 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 0.93 0.95 0.98 1.01 

2005 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.15 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.00 1.03 1.08 1.12 0.94 0.97 1.01 1.05 

2006 1.06 1.12 1.17 1.23 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.13 1.01 1.06 1.11 1.17 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 

2007 1.08 1.15 1.22 1.29 1.01 1.07 1.13 1.20 1.04 1.10 1.17 1.24 0.97 1.03 1.09 1.16 

2008 1.10 1.18 1.26 1.35 1.03 1.11 1.18 1.26 1.06 1.14 1.22 1.30 0.99 1.06 1.13 1.21 

2009 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.41 1.06 1.15 1.24 1.34 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.37 1.01 1.09 1.17 1.27 

2010 1.14 1.25 1.36 1.48 1.09 1.19 1.30 1.42 1.12 1.22 1.33 1.45 1.02 1.12 1.22 1.33 

2011 1.16 1.28 1.41 1.55 1.12 1.24 1.36 1.50 1.14 1.26 1.38 1.52 1.04 1.15 1.26 1.39 

2012 1.18 1.31 1.46 1.62 1.15 1.28 1.42 1.58 1.17 1.30 1.45 1.61 1.06 1.18 1.31 1.45 

2013 1.20 1.35 1.51 1.70 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 1.17 1.31 1.47 1.65 1.08 1.21 1.36 1.52 

2014 1.23 1.40 1.58 1.79 1.21 1.37 1.56 1.76 1.17 1.33 1.50 1.70 1.10 1.25 1.41 1.60 

2015 1.26 1.45 1.65 1.89 1.26 1.44 1.65 1.89 1.20 1.37 1.57 1.80 1.12 1.28 1.47 1.68 

2016 1.29 1.49 1.73 1.99 1.30 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.23 1.42 1.65 1.90 1.15 1.33 1.53 1.77 

2017 1.32 1.54 1.80 2.09 1.33 1.55 1.81 2.11 1.26 1.47 1.71 2.00 1.17 1.37 1.60 1.87 

2018 1.35 1.59 1.87 2.20 1.36 1.61 1.90 2.23 1.28 1.51 1.78 2.10 1.20 1.42 1.67 1.97 

2019 1.37 1.63 1.94 2.30 1.40 1.67 1.99 2.36 1.31 1.56 1.86 2.21 1.23 1.47 1.75 2.08 

2020 1.39 1.67 2.01 2.41 1.44 1.73 2.08 2.50 1.34 1.61 1.93 2.32 1.27 1.53 1.84 2.20 

2021 1.42 1.72 2.09 2.53 1.47 1.79 2.17 2.63 1.36 1.66 2.01 2.44 1.31 1.59 1.93 2.33 

2022 1.44 1.77 2.17 2.66 1.51 1.85 2.27 2.77 1.39 1.71 2.10 2.56 1.34 1.65 2.02 2.47 

2023 1.47 1.83 2.26 2.79 1.54 1.91 2.36 2.92 1.42 1.76 2.18 2.69 1.38 1.71 2.12 2.61 

2024 1.50 1.88 2.35 2.93 1.58 1.97 2.46 3.07 1.45 1.82 2.27 2.83 1.42 1.78 2.22 2.77 

2025 1.53 1.94 2.44 3.07 1.61 2.04 2.57 3.23 1.49 1.88 2.37 2.98 1.46 1.85 2.33 2.93 

2026 1.56 1.99 2.54 3.22 1.65 2.10 2.68 3.40 1.52 1.94 2.47 3.14 1.50 1.92 2.44 3.10 

2027 1.59 2.05 2.64 3.38 1.68 2.17 2.79 3.58 1.55 2.00 2.57 3.30 1.54 1.99 2.56 3.28 

2028 1.62 2.11 2.74 3.55 1.72 2.24 2.91 3.77 1.59 2.06 2.68 3.47 1.59 2.07 2.68 3.47 

2029 1.66 2.18 2.85 3.73 1.76 2.32 3.04 3.97 1.62 2.13 2.79 3.65 1.63 2.15 2.81 3.68 

2030 1.69 2.24 2.97 3.91 1.80 2.39 3.16 4.18 1.66 2.20 2.91 3.84 1.68 2.23 2.95 3.89 

2031 1.72 2.31 3.08 4.11 1.84 2.47 3.30 4.40 1.69 2.27 3.03 4.04 1.73 2.32 3.09 4.12
49

Table S-2, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, 

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 --------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.91 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.98 0.99 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

2003 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 

2004 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.11 0.92 0.95 0.97 1.00 0.89 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.93 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.14 

2005 1.01 1.05 1.09 1.13 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.06 0.91 0.95 0.99 1.03 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.18 

2006 1.01 1.06 1.11 1.16 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 0.93 0.98 1.03 1.08 0.97 1.02 1.07 1.12 1.06 1.11 1.17 1.23 

2007 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.17 0.96 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.28 

2008 1.00 1.07 1.14 1.22 1.01 1.08 1.15 1.23 0.99 1.05 1.13 1.21 1.03 1.10 1.18 1.26 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.33 

2009 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.26 1.04 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.01 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.05 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.10 1.19 1.29 1.39 

2010 1.02 1.11 1.22 1.32 1.08 1.17 1.28 1.40 1.03 1.13 1.23 1.34 1.08 1.18 1.29 1.40 1.11 1.21 1.32 1.44 

2011 1.04 1.14 1.26 1.39 1.10 1.21 1.34 1.47 1.06 1.17 1.29 1.42 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.47 1.13 1.24 1.37 1.50 

2012 1.05 1.17 1.30 1.44 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.56 1.09 1.21 1.35 1.50 1.12 1.25 1.38 1.54 1.14 1.27 1.41 1.57 

2013 1.07 1.20 1.35 1.52 1.17 1.31 1.47 1.65 1.12 1.25 1.41 1.58 1.14 1.28 1.44 1.62 1.15 1.30 1.46 1.63 

2014 1.10 1.25 1.42 1.60 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.75 1.14 1.30 1.47 1.66 1.17 1.33 1.50 1.70 1.17 1.33 1.50 1.70 

2015 1.13 1.29 1.48 1.69 1.25 1.44 1.64 1.88 1.17 1.34 1.54 1.76 1.19 1.37 1.57 1.79 1.18 1.36 1.55 1.78 

2016 1.16 1.34 1.55 1.78 1.29 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.20 1.39 1.61 1.86 1.22 1.42 1.64 1.89 1.19 1.38 1.59 1.84 

2017 1.18 1.38 1.61 1.88 1.33 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.23 1.44 1.68 1.96 1.26 1.47 1.71 2.00 1.21 1.41 1.64 1.92 

2018 1.21 1.43 1.69 1.99 1.37 1.61 1.90 2.24 1.26 1.49 1.76 2.07 1.29 1.52 1.80 2.11 1.22 1.44 1.70 2.00 

2019 1.23 1.47 1.75 2.07 1.41 1.68 2.00 2.38 1.30 1.55 1.84 2.18 1.33 1.58 1.88 2.24 1.24 1.47 1.75 2.08 

2020 1.26 1.51 1.82 2.18 1.45 1.75 2.10 2.52 1.33 1.60 1.92 2.30 1.37 1.65 1.98 2.37 1.25 1.51 1.81 2.17 

2021 1.28 1.56 1.89 2.29 1.49 1.81 2.20 2.66 1.36 1.65 2.01 2.43 1.41 1.72 2.08 2.52 1.27 1.54 1.87 2.26 

2022 1.31 1.61 1.97 2.41 1.52 1.87 2.29 2.80 1.40 1.71 2.10 2.57 1.45 1.78 2.18 2.67 1.29 1.59 1.94 2.38 

2023 1.34 1.66 2.05 2.53 1.56 1.93 2.39 2.95 1.43 1.77 2.19 2.70 1.49 1.85 2.29 2.82 1.31 1.62 2.01 2.48 

2024 1.36 1.71 2.13 2.66 1.60 2.00 2.50 3.11 1.47 1.84 2.29 2.86 1.54 1.92 2.40 2.99 1.33 1.67 2.09 2.60 

2025 1.39 1.76 2.22 2.79 1.63 2.07 2.61 3.28 1.51 1.90 2.40 3.02 1.58 2.00 2.52 3.17 1.35 1.71 2.15 2.71 

2026 1.42 1.81 2.31 2.93 1.67 2.14 2.72 3.45 1.54 1.97 2.51 3.19 1.63 2.08 2.64 3.36 1.38 1.76 2.24 2.84 

2027 1.45 1.87 2.41 3.08 1.71 2.20 2.83 3.63 1.58 2.04 2.63 3.37 1.67 2.16 2.77 3.56 1.41 1.81 2.33 2.99 

2028 1.48 1.93 2.50 3.24 1.75 2.28 2.96 3.83 1.63 2.12 2.75 3.56 1.72 2.24 2.91 3.77 1.43 1.87 2.42 3.14 

2029 1.51 1.99 2.61 3.41 1.79 2.35 3.09 4.03 1.67 2.19 2.87 3.76 1.77 2.33 3.05 3.99 1.46 1.92 2.52 3.29 

2030 1.54 2.05 2.71 3.58 1.83 2.43 3.22 4.25 1.71 2.27 3.01 3.97 1.82 2.42 3.20 4.22 1.49 1.98 2.62 3.46 

2031 1.58 2.11 2.82 3.76 1.88 2.52 3.36 4.48 1.76 2.35 3.14 4.19 1.88 2.52 3.36 4.48 1.52 2.04 2.72 3.63
50

Table S-2, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 2 (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri,

Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, Wisconsin)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00) 

 ---------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL----------------------------------------------------------- 

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

2003 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.96 0.88 0.90 0.91 0.93 0.87 0.89 0.91 0.93 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 

2004 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 0.89 0.92 0.95 0.97 0.86 0.88 0.91 0.93 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.13 

2005 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.14 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 0.92 0.95 0.99 1.03 0.87 0.90 0.94 0.97 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.18 

2006 1.01 1.06 1.11 1.17 0.97 1.01 1.06 1.12 0.94 0.99 1.03 1.09 0.89 0.93 0.98 1.03 1.06 1.11 1.17 1.23 

2007 1.00 1.06 1.13 1.19 0.99 1.05 1.12 1.18 0.96 1.02 1.08 1.15 0.91 0.97 1.03 1.09 1.07 1.14 1.20 1.28 

2008 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.23 1.02 1.09 1.17 1.25 0.99 1.06 1.13 1.21 0.94 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.33 

2009 1.01 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.05 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.01 1.09 1.18 1.28 0.96 1.03 1.12 1.21 1.10 1.19 1.28 1.38 

2010 1.03 1.13 1.23 1.34 1.09 1.19 1.30 1.41 1.04 1.13 1.24 1.35 0.98 1.07 1.16 1.27 1.11 1.21 1.32 1.44 

2011 1.05 1.16 1.27 1.40 1.11 1.23 1.35 1.49 1.07 1.18 1.29 1.42 1.00 1.11 1.22 1.34 1.12 1.24 1.36 1.50 

2012 1.06 1.18 1.32 1.46 1.14 1.27 1.42 1.57 1.09 1.21 1.35 1.50 1.03 1.14 1.27 1.41 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.56 

2013 1.09 1.22 1.37 1.54 1.18 1.32 1.49 1.67 1.12 1.26 1.41 1.59 1.05 1.18 1.32 1.49 1.16 1.30 1.46 1.64 

2014 1.12 1.27 1.44 1.63 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.76 1.15 1.30 1.47 1.67 1.08 1.22 1.39 1.57 1.17 1.33 1.51 1.70 

2015 1.15 1.32 1.51 1.73 1.26 1.45 1.66 1.89 1.18 1.35 1.54 1.76 1.11 1.28 1.46 1.67 1.18 1.36 1.55 1.77 

2016 1.18 1.37 1.58 1.82 1.30 1.51 1.74 2.01 1.21 1.40 1.61 1.86 1.15 1.33 1.54 1.78 1.20 1.38 1.60 1.85 

2017 1.21 1.42 1.66 1.93 1.34 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.23 1.44 1.68 1.96 1.19 1.39 1.62 1.89 1.21 1.41 1.65 1.92 

2018 1.25 1.47 1.73 2.04 1.37 1.62 1.91 2.25 1.27 1.50 1.76 2.07 1.23 1.45 1.71 2.01 1.23 1.45 1.71 2.02 

2019 1.27 1.51 1.80 2.14 1.42 1.69 2.01 2.39 1.30 1.55 1.84 2.19 1.27 1.52 1.81 2.15 1.25 1.48 1.77 2.10 

2020 1.30 1.56 1.88 2.25 1.46 1.76 2.11 2.53 1.33 1.60 1.92 2.31 1.33 1.60 1.92 2.30 1.25 1.50 1.80 2.16 

2021 1.33 1.62 1.96 2.37 1.49 1.82 2.20 2.67 1.36 1.66 2.01 2.44 1.37 1.66 2.02 2.45 1.27 1.55 1.88 2.27 

2022 1.36 1.67 2.04 2.50 1.53 1.88 2.30 2.81 1.40 1.72 2.10 2.57 1.41 1.74 2.13 2.60 1.29 1.58 1.93 2.36 

2023 1.39 1.73 2.13 2.63 1.56 1.94 2.39 2.95 1.44 1.78 2.20 2.72 1.46 1.81 2.24 2.76 1.31 1.62 2.01 2.48 

2024 1.42 1.78 2.23 2.77 1.60 2.00 2.50 3.11 1.47 1.84 2.30 2.86 1.51 1.89 2.36 2.94 1.32 1.66 2.07 2.58 

2025 1.46 1.84 2.32 2.92 1.64 2.07 2.61 3.28 1.51 1.91 2.40 3.02 1.56 1.97 2.48 3.12 1.35 1.71 2.15 2.71 

2026 1.49 1.90 2.42 3.08 1.67 2.14 2.72 3.45 1.55 1.97 2.51 3.19 1.61 2.05 2.61 3.32 1.38 1.76 2.24 2.84 

2027 1.52 1.96 2.52 3.24 1.71 2.21 2.84 3.64 1.59 2.04 2.63 3.37 1.66 2.14 2.75 3.52 1.41 1.81 2.33 2.99 

2028 1.56 2.03 2.63 3.41 1.75 2.28 2.96 3.83 1.63 2.12 2.75 3.56 1.71 2.23 2.89 3.74 1.43 1.87 2.42 3.14 

2029 1.60 2.10 2.75 3.59 1.79 2.36 3.09 4.04 1.67 2.19 2.88 3.76 1.77 2.32 3.04 3.97 1.46 1.92 2.52 3.29 

2030 1.63 2.17 2.87 3.78 1.83 2.43 3.22 4.25 1.71 2.27 3.01 3.97 1.82 2.42 3.20 4.22 1.49 1.98 2.62 3.46 

2031 1.67 2.24 2.99 3.99 1.88 2.52 3.36 4.48 1.76 2.35 3.15 4.19 1.88 2.52 3.36 4.48 1.52 2.04 2.72 3.63
51

Table S-3. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 ------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL----------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural Gas 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 

2003 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 

2004 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.09 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.01 

2005 1.02 1.07 1.11 1.15 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.14 0.93 0.97 1.01 1.05 

2006 1.05 1.11 1.16 1.22 0.99 1.04 1.09 1.14 1.04 1.09 1.14 1.20 0.95 0.99 1.04 1.10 

2007 1.08 1.15 1.21 1.29 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.06 1.13 1.19 1.27 0.96 1.02 1.08 1.15 

2008 1.10 1.18 1.27 1.35 1.04 1.11 1.19 1.27 1.09 1.16 1.25 1.33 0.98 1.05 1.13 1.21 

2009 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.42 1.07 1.15 1.25 1.35 1.11 1.20 1.30 1.40 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.26 

2010 1.14 1.25 1.36 1.49 1.10 1.20 1.31 1.43 1.14 1.24 1.36 1.48 1.01 1.11 1.21 1.32 

2011 1.17 1.28 1.41 1.56 1.13 1.24 1.37 1.50 1.16 1.28 1.41 1.55 1.03 1.14 1.25 1.38 

2012 1.18 1.32 1.47 1.63 1.15 1.28 1.43 1.59 1.19 1.32 1.47 1.64 1.05 1.16 1.30 1.44 

2013 1.21 1.36 1.52 1.71 1.18 1.33 1.50 1.68 1.19 1.34 1.50 1.69 1.06 1.19 1.34 1.50 

2014 1.24 1.40 1.59 1.80 1.21 1.38 1.56 1.77 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.75 1.08 1.23 1.39 1.57 

2015 1.27 1.45 1.66 1.90 1.26 1.45 1.65 1.89 1.23 1.41 1.61 1.84 1.10 1.26 1.45 1.65 

2016 1.30 1.50 1.74 2.01 1.30 1.50 1.74 2.00 1.26 1.45 1.68 1.94 1.12 1.30 1.50 1.74 

2017 1.33 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.33 1.55 1.81 2.12 1.28 1.50 1.75 2.04 1.15 1.34 1.57 1.83 

2018 1.37 1.61 1.90 2.24 1.36 1.61 1.90 2.23 1.31 1.54 1.82 2.14 1.17 1.39 1.63 1.92 

2019 1.39 1.66 1.98 2.35 1.40 1.67 1.99 2.36 1.33 1.59 1.89 2.25 1.21 1.44 1.71 2.03 

2020 1.43 1.72 2.06 2.47 1.44 1.73 2.08 2.50 1.36 1.64 1.97 2.36 1.24 1.49 1.79 2.15 

2021 1.46 1.77 2.15 2.60 1.47 1.79 2.17 2.63 1.39 1.69 2.05 2.48 1.27 1.55 1.88 2.27 

2022 1.49 1.83 2.24 2.74 1.51 1.85 2.26 2.77 1.42 1.74 2.13 2.61 1.31 1.61 1.97 2.40 

2023 1.52 1.89 2.33 2.88 1.54 1.91 2.36 2.91 1.45 1.79 2.22 2.74 1.34 1.67 2.06 2.54 

2024 1.56 1.95 2.43 3.03 1.57 1.97 2.46 3.07 1.48 1.85 2.31 2.88 1.38 1.73 2.16 2.69 

2025 1.59 2.01 2.53 3.19 1.61 2.04 2.57 3.23 1.51 1.91 2.41 3.03 1.42 1.79 2.26 2.84 

2026 1.63 2.08 2.64 3.36 1.65 2.10 2.68 3.40 1.54 1.97 2.51 3.19 1.46 1.86 2.37 3.00 

2027 1.66 2.14 2.75 3.53 1.68 2.17 2.79 3.58 1.58 2.03 2.61 3.35 1.50 1.93 2.48 3.18 

2028 1.70 2.21 2.87 3.72 1.72 2.24 2.90 3.76 1.61 2.10 2.72 3.52 1.54 2.00 2.59 3.36 

2029 1.74 2.28 2.99 3.91 1.76 2.31 3.03 3.96 1.64 2.16 2.83 3.70 1.58 2.08 2.72 3.56 

2030 1.78 2.36 3.12 4.12 1.80 2.39 3.16 4.17 1.68 2.23 2.95 3.89 1.62 2.15 2.85 3.76 

2031 1.82 2.43 3.25 4.33 1.84 2.46 3.29 4.39 1.71 2.30 3.07 4.09 1.67 2.23 2.98 3.98
52

Table S-3, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 --------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 

2003 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 

2004 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.09 0.92 0.94 0.97 1.00 0.91 0.94 0.97 1.00 0.92 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 

2005 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.06 0.94 0.97 1.01 1.05 0.94 0.98 1.01 1.05 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.17 

2006 1.01 1.06 1.11 1.16 0.95 0.99 1.04 1.09 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.11 0.97 1.01 1.06 1.12 1.05 1.11 1.16 1.22 

2007 1.01 1.07 1.13 1.20 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.16 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.17 0.99 1.05 1.12 1.18 1.07 1.13 1.20 1.27 

2008 1.02 1.09 1.16 1.24 1.00 1.08 1.15 1.23 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.23 1.03 1.10 1.17 1.26 1.07 1.15 1.23 1.32 

2009 1.03 1.11 1.20 1.29 1.03 1.12 1.21 1.30 1.02 1.11 1.20 1.29 1.06 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.37 

2010 1.04 1.14 1.24 1.35 1.07 1.17 1.28 1.39 1.05 1.14 1.25 1.36 1.08 1.18 1.29 1.41 1.11 1.21 1.32 1.44 

2011 1.05 1.16 1.28 1.41 1.10 1.21 1.34 1.47 1.08 1.19 1.31 1.44 1.11 1.22 1.34 1.48 1.12 1.24 1.36 1.50 

2012 1.07 1.19 1.32 1.47 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.56 1.10 1.22 1.36 1.51 1.13 1.25 1.39 1.55 1.14 1.27 1.41 1.57 

2013 1.09 1.22 1.37 1.54 1.17 1.31 1.47 1.65 1.13 1.27 1.42 1.60 1.15 1.29 1.45 1.63 1.15 1.30 1.45 1.63 

2014 1.12 1.27 1.44 1.63 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.74 1.15 1.31 1.49 1.68 1.18 1.33 1.51 1.71 1.17 1.32 1.50 1.70 

2015 1.15 1.31 1.50 1.72 1.25 1.43 1.64 1.88 1.18 1.36 1.55 1.78 1.20 1.38 1.58 1.80 1.18 1.35 1.55 1.77 

2016 1.18 1.36 1.57 1.82 1.29 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.21 1.40 1.62 1.87 1.23 1.43 1.65 1.90 1.21 1.41 1.62 1.88 

2017 1.21 1.41 1.65 1.92 1.33 1.55 1.81 2.11 1.24 1.45 1.69 1.97 1.27 1.48 1.73 2.01 1.23 1.44 1.68 1.95 

2018 1.24 1.47 1.73 2.03 1.37 1.62 1.90 2.24 1.27 1.50 1.77 2.08 1.30 1.53 1.81 2.13 1.24 1.47 1.73 2.04 

2019 1.27 1.51 1.80 2.14 1.41 1.68 2.00 2.38 1.30 1.55 1.85 2.19 1.34 1.59 1.90 2.25 1.26 1.50 1.79 2.12 

2020 1.30 1.57 1.88 2.26 1.46 1.75 2.11 2.53 1.34 1.61 1.93 2.32 1.38 1.66 2.00 2.40 1.29 1.55 1.86 2.23 

2021 1.33 1.62 1.96 2.38 1.49 1.81 2.20 2.66 1.37 1.66 2.01 2.44 1.42 1.73 2.09 2.54 1.30 1.58 1.92 2.32 

2022 1.36 1.67 2.05 2.51 1.52 1.87 2.29 2.80 1.40 1.72 2.11 2.58 1.46 1.79 2.20 2.69 1.33 1.63 2.00 2.44 

2023 1.39 1.73 2.14 2.64 1.56 1.93 2.39 2.95 1.44 1.78 2.20 2.72 1.50 1.86 2.30 2.84 1.34 1.67 2.06 2.54 

2024 1.43 1.78 2.23 2.78 1.60 2.00 2.50 3.11 1.47 1.84 2.30 2.87 1.55 1.94 2.42 3.01 1.37 1.72 2.14 2.67 

2025 1.46 1.84 2.32 2.92 1.64 2.07 2.61 3.28 1.51 1.91 2.41 3.03 1.59 2.01 2.53 3.19 1.39 1.75 2.21 2.78 

2026 1.49 1.90 2.42 3.08 1.67 2.14 2.72 3.46 1.55 1.98 2.52 3.20 1.64 2.09 2.66 3.38 1.42 1.81 2.30 2.92 

2027 1.53 1.97 2.53 3.24 1.71 2.21 2.84 3.64 1.59 2.04 2.63 3.37 1.68 2.17 2.79 3.57 1.44 1.86 2.39 3.07 

2028 1.56 2.03 2.64 3.42 1.75 2.28 2.96 3.84 1.63 2.12 2.75 3.56 1.73 2.25 2.92 3.78 1.47 1.92 2.49 3.22 

2029 1.60 2.10 2.75 3.60 1.80 2.36 3.09 4.04 1.67 2.19 2.87 3.75 1.78 2.34 3.06 4.00 1.50 1.97 2.59 3.38 

2030 1.63 2.17 2.87 3.79 1.83 2.43 3.22 4.25 1.71 2.27 3.00 3.96 1.83 2.43 3.21 4.24 1.53 2.03 2.69 3.55 

2031 1.67 2.24 2.99 3.99 1.88 2.52 3.36 4.48 1.75 2.35 3.14 4.18 1.88 2.52 3.37 4.49 1.56 2.09 2.80 3.73
53

Table S-3, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 3 (Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,

Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina,

Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 ---------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL-----------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.93 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.91 0.91 0.92 0.93 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

2003 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.90 0.92 0.93 0.95 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.83 0.84 0.86 0.88 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 

2004 1.02 1.06 1.09 1.12 0.92 0.95 0.98 1.01 0.91 0.94 0.97 0.99 0.80 0.83 0.85 0.88 1.03 1.06 1.10 1.13 

2005 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.16 0.95 0.98 1.02 1.06 0.93 0.97 1.01 1.05 0.82 0.85 0.89 0.92 1.05 1.09 1.13 1.18 

2006 1.04 1.09 1.15 1.20 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 0.85 0.89 0.94 0.98 1.05 1.11 1.16 1.22 

2007 1.05 1.11 1.17 1.24 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.17 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.16 0.88 0.93 0.99 1.05 1.07 1.14 1.21 1.28 

2008 1.05 1.13 1.21 1.29 1.01 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.23 0.91 0.98 1.05 1.12 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.32 

2009 1.07 1.15 1.24 1.34 1.04 1.12 1.21 1.31 1.02 1.11 1.20 1.29 0.94 1.01 1.10 1.18 1.09 1.18 1.28 1.38 

2010 1.08 1.18 1.29 1.41 1.08 1.18 1.28 1.40 1.05 1.14 1.25 1.36 0.97 1.06 1.15 1.25 1.11 1.21 1.32 1.44 

2011 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.10 1.22 1.34 1.47 1.07 1.18 1.30 1.44 0.99 1.09 1.21 1.33 1.12 1.24 1.36 1.50 

2012 1.11 1.23 1.37 1.53 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.56 1.10 1.22 1.36 1.51 1.02 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.14 1.27 1.41 1.56 

2013 1.13 1.27 1.42 1.60 1.17 1.31 1.47 1.65 1.12 1.26 1.42 1.59 1.05 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.16 1.30 1.46 1.64 

2014 1.15 1.31 1.49 1.68 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.75 1.15 1.31 1.48 1.68 1.08 1.23 1.39 1.58 1.17 1.33 1.51 1.71 

2015 1.18 1.35 1.55 1.77 1.25 1.44 1.65 1.88 1.18 1.35 1.55 1.77 1.12 1.29 1.47 1.68 1.19 1.36 1.56 1.78 

2016 1.21 1.40 1.62 1.87 1.30 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.21 1.40 1.62 1.87 1.16 1.35 1.56 1.80 1.20 1.39 1.61 1.86 

2017 1.25 1.46 1.70 1.98 1.33 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.24 1.45 1.69 1.97 1.21 1.41 1.65 1.92 1.22 1.42 1.66 1.94 

2018 1.28 1.51 1.78 2.10 1.37 1.61 1.90 2.24 1.27 1.50 1.77 2.08 1.25 1.48 1.74 2.05 1.24 1.47 1.73 2.03 

2019 1.31 1.57 1.86 2.21 1.41 1.68 2.00 2.38 1.30 1.55 1.85 2.19 1.30 1.56 1.85 2.20 1.26 1.50 1.78 2.12 

2020 1.35 1.62 1.95 2.34 1.45 1.75 2.10 2.52 1.34 1.61 1.93 2.32 1.37 1.64 1.97 2.37 1.27 1.53 1.84 2.21 

2021 1.38 1.68 2.03 2.46 1.49 1.81 2.19 2.66 1.37 1.66 2.01 2.44 1.42 1.72 2.09 2.53 1.29 1.57 1.90 2.30 

2022 1.41 1.73 2.12 2.59 1.52 1.87 2.29 2.80 1.40 1.72 2.11 2.57 1.46 1.80 2.20 2.69 1.31 1.61 1.98 2.42 

2023 1.44 1.79 2.21 2.73 1.56 1.93 2.39 2.95 1.44 1.78 2.20 2.72 1.51 1.87 2.31 2.86 1.33 1.65 2.04 2.52 

2024 1.47 1.84 2.30 2.87 1.60 2.00 2.50 3.11 1.47 1.84 2.30 2.87 1.56 1.95 2.44 3.04 1.36 1.70 2.12 2.64 

2025 1.51 1.90 2.40 3.02 1.63 2.06 2.60 3.27 1.51 1.90 2.40 3.02 1.61 2.04 2.57 3.23 1.38 1.75 2.21 2.78 

2026 1.54 1.97 2.50 3.18 1.67 2.13 2.71 3.45 1.55 1.97 2.51 3.19 1.67 2.13 2.71 3.44 1.41 1.80 2.30 2.92 

2027 1.57 2.03 2.61 3.34 1.71 2.20 2.83 3.63 1.58 2.04 2.63 3.37 1.72 2.22 2.85 3.66 1.44 1.86 2.39 3.06 

2028 1.61 2.09 2.72 3.52 1.75 2.28 2.95 3.83 1.62 2.11 2.74 3.55 1.78 2.31 3.00 3.89 1.47 1.91 2.48 3.21 

2029 1.65 2.16 2.83 3.70 1.79 2.35 3.08 4.03 1.67 2.19 2.87 3.75 1.84 2.41 3.16 4.14 1.50 1.97 2.58 3.37 

2030 1.68 2.23 2.95 3.90 1.83 2.43 3.22 4.25 1.71 2.27 3.00 3.96 1.90 2.52 3.34 4.41 1.53 2.03 2.68 3.54 

2031 1.72 2.30 3.08 4.10 1.88 2.51 3.36 4.47 1.75 2.35 3.14 4.18 1.96 2.63 3.52 4.68 1.56 2.09 2.79 3.72 
54

Table S-4. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 -------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL---------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural Gas 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 

2003 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.01 1.03 1.05 1.07 0.97 0.98 1.00 1.02 

2004 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.13 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.05 

2005 1.03 1.07 1.11 1.16 0.99 1.03 1.08 1.12 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 

2006 1.04 1.09 1.15 1.20 1.02 1.07 1.12 1.18 1.08 1.14 1.19 1.25 0.99 1.04 1.09 1.14 

2007 1.04 1.10 1.17 1.24 1.05 1.11 1.18 1.24 1.11 1.18 1.25 1.33 1.01 1.07 1.13 1.20 

2008 1.06 1.14 1.22 1.30 1.06 1.14 1.22 1.30 1.15 1.23 1.31 1.41 1.02 1.09 1.17 1.25 

2009 1.09 1.18 1.28 1.38 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.37 1.18 1.27 1.38 1.49 1.03 1.12 1.21 1.30 

2010 1.12 1.22 1.33 1.45 1.12 1.22 1.33 1.45 1.21 1.32 1.44 1.57 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.37 

2011 1.14 1.26 1.38 1.52 1.15 1.27 1.39 1.54 1.23 1.36 1.49 1.65 1.07 1.19 1.31 1.44 

2012 1.16 1.29 1.44 1.60 1.18 1.31 1.46 1.62 1.26 1.40 1.56 1.73 1.09 1.22 1.35 1.50 

2013 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.68 1.21 1.36 1.52 1.71 1.28 1.44 1.61 1.81 1.11 1.25 1.40 1.57 

2014 1.21 1.38 1.56 1.77 1.23 1.40 1.59 1.80 1.29 1.47 1.67 1.89 1.13 1.28 1.45 1.65 

2015 1.24 1.42 1.62 1.86 1.26 1.45 1.66 1.90 1.34 1.53 1.76 2.01 1.15 1.32 1.51 1.73 

2016 1.26 1.46 1.69 1.95 1.29 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.37 1.59 1.84 2.12 1.17 1.36 1.57 1.81 

2017 1.29 1.50 1.75 2.04 1.33 1.55 1.81 2.11 1.40 1.64 1.91 2.23 1.19 1.40 1.63 1.90 

2018 1.31 1.54 1.82 2.14 1.35 1.59 1.88 2.21 1.43 1.69 1.99 2.35 1.22 1.44 1.69 1.99 

2019 1.33 1.58 1.88 2.24 1.37 1.63 1.94 2.31 1.47 1.75 2.08 2.48 1.24 1.48 1.76 2.10 

2020 1.35 1.63 1.96 2.35 1.41 1.69 2.03 2.44 1.50 1.81 2.17 2.60 1.28 1.54 1.85 2.22 

2021 1.38 1.67 2.03 2.46 1.44 1.75 2.12 2.57 1.53 1.86 2.26 2.74 1.31 1.60 1.94 2.34 

2022 1.40 1.72 2.11 2.58 1.47 1.81 2.21 2.71 1.57 1.92 2.35 2.88 1.35 1.66 2.03 2.48 

2023 1.43 1.77 2.19 2.71 1.51 1.87 2.31 2.85 1.60 1.98 2.45 3.02 1.39 1.72 2.13 2.62 

2024 1.46 1.83 2.28 2.84 1.54 1.93 2.41 3.00 1.63 2.04 2.55 3.18 1.42 1.78 2.23 2.78 

2025 1.49 1.88 2.37 2.98 1.57 1.99 2.51 3.16 1.67 2.11 2.66 3.34 1.46 1.85 2.33 2.94 

2026 1.52 1.94 2.46 3.13 1.61 2.05 2.61 3.32 1.70 2.17 2.77 3.51 1.50 1.92 2.44 3.11 

2027 1.55 1.99 2.56 3.28 1.64 2.12 2.72 3.49 1.74 2.24 2.88 3.69 1.55 1.99 2.56 3.29 

2028 1.58 2.05 2.66 3.45 1.68 2.19 2.84 3.68 1.78 2.31 3.00 3.88 1.59 2.07 2.68 3.47 

2029 1.61 2.11 2.77 3.62 1.72 2.26 2.96 3.87 1.81 2.38 3.12 4.08 1.63 2.14 2.81 3.68 

2030 1.64 2.17 2.88 3.80 1.76 2.33 3.09 4.08 1.85 2.46 3.25 4.29 1.68 2.23 2.94 3.89 

2031 1.67 2.24 2.99 3.98 1.80 2.41 3.22 4.29 1.89 2.54 3.39 4.52 1.73 2.31 3.09 4.12
55

Table S-4, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00) 

 --------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL------------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.93 0.94 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 

2003 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 0.92 0.94 0.95 0.97 0.88 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.10 

2004 0.99 1.01 1.04 1.07 0.94 0.97 1.00 1.03 0.90 0.92 0.95 0.98 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.06 1.05 1.08 1.11 1.14 

2005 0.97 1.00 1.04 1.08 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 0.92 0.96 1.00 1.03 1.00 1.04 1.08 1.12 1.06 1.10 1.15 1.19 

2006 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 0.99 1.04 1.09 1.15 0.94 0.99 1.04 1.09 1.03 1.08 1.13 1.19 1.08 1.13 1.19 1.24 

2007 0.92 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.02 1.08 1.15 1.21 0.96 1.02 1.08 1.15 1.05 1.11 1.18 1.25 1.09 1.16 1.23 1.30 

2008 0.92 0.98 1.05 1.13 1.04 1.11 1.19 1.27 0.99 1.06 1.13 1.21 1.08 1.15 1.23 1.32 1.11 1.18 1.27 1.35 

2009 0.93 1.00 1.08 1.17 1.06 1.15 1.24 1.34 1.01 1.09 1.18 1.28 1.10 1.19 1.29 1.39 1.11 1.20 1.30 1.40 

2010 0.93 1.02 1.11 1.21 1.10 1.20 1.30 1.42 1.04 1.13 1.24 1.35 1.14 1.24 1.35 1.47 1.13 1.24 1.35 1.47 

2011 0.94 1.04 1.15 1.26 1.13 1.24 1.37 1.51 1.06 1.17 1.29 1.42 1.17 1.29 1.42 1.56 1.15 1.27 1.40 1.54 

2012 0.95 1.06 1.18 1.31 1.16 1.29 1.43 1.59 1.09 1.21 1.35 1.50 1.19 1.33 1.48 1.64 1.17 1.30 1.44 1.60 

2013 0.97 1.09 1.23 1.38 1.19 1.33 1.50 1.68 1.12 1.26 1.41 1.58 1.22 1.37 1.53 1.72 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 

2014 1.01 1.14 1.29 1.47 1.21 1.38 1.56 1.77 1.14 1.30 1.47 1.66 1.24 1.41 1.60 1.81 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.74 

2015 1.03 1.18 1.35 1.54 1.25 1.43 1.64 1.88 1.17 1.34 1.54 1.76 1.27 1.45 1.66 1.90 1.21 1.39 1.59 1.82 

2016 1.05 1.22 1.41 1.62 1.29 1.49 1.72 1.99 1.20 1.39 1.60 1.85 1.29 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.23 1.42 1.64 1.90 

2017 1.08 1.27 1.48 1.72 1.32 1.54 1.80 2.10 1.23 1.44 1.68 1.96 1.32 1.55 1.80 2.10 1.24 1.45 1.70 1.98 

2018 1.10 1.30 1.54 1.81 1.34 1.59 1.87 2.20 1.26 1.49 1.76 2.07 1.35 1.60 1.88 2.21 1.26 1.49 1.75 2.06 

2019 1.12 1.33 1.59 1.89 1.37 1.63 1.94 2.31 1.29 1.54 1.83 2.18 1.39 1.65 1.97 2.34 1.28 1.52 1.81 2.15 

2020 1.15 1.38 1.66 1.99 1.41 1.70 2.04 2.45 1.33 1.59 1.92 2.30 1.43 1.72 2.06 2.48 1.28 1.54 1.86 2.22 

2021 1.18 1.43 1.73 2.10 1.45 1.76 2.13 2.58 1.36 1.65 2.00 2.42 1.47 1.79 2.17 2.63 1.31 1.59 1.93 2.34 

2022 1.20 1.47 1.81 2.21 1.48 1.82 2.23 2.72 1.39 1.71 2.09 2.56 1.51 1.86 2.27 2.78 1.33 1.63 1.99 2.44 

2023 1.23 1.52 1.88 2.32 1.52 1.88 2.32 2.87 1.43 1.77 2.19 2.70 1.55 1.93 2.38 2.94 1.35 1.68 2.07 2.56 

2024 1.25 1.57 1.96 2.44 1.55 1.94 2.42 3.02 1.46 1.83 2.28 2.84 1.60 2.00 2.50 3.11 1.38 1.73 2.15 2.69 

2025 1.28 1.62 2.04 2.57 1.58 2.00 2.52 3.18 1.50 1.89 2.39 3.00 1.64 2.08 2.62 3.29 1.40 1.76 2.22 2.80 

2026 1.31 1.67 2.13 2.70 1.62 2.07 2.63 3.35 1.54 1.96 2.50 3.17 1.69 2.16 2.75 3.49 1.42 1.82 2.31 2.94 

2027 1.34 1.72 2.22 2.84 1.66 2.14 2.75 3.53 1.58 2.03 2.61 3.35 1.74 2.24 2.88 3.69 1.45 1.87 2.41 3.09 

2028 1.37 1.78 2.31 2.99 1.70 2.21 2.87 3.71 1.62 2.10 2.73 3.53 1.79 2.32 3.02 3.91 1.48 1.93 2.50 3.24 

2029 1.40 1.84 2.41 3.15 1.74 2.28 2.99 3.91 1.66 2.18 2.86 3.73 1.84 2.41 3.16 4.13 1.51 1.99 2.60 3.40 

2030 1.43 1.89 2.51 3.31 1.78 2.36 3.12 4.12 1.70 2.26 2.99 3.94 1.89 2.51 3.32 4.38 1.54 2.05 2.71 3.57 

2031 1.46 1.96 2.61 3.48 1.82 2.44 3.26 4.34 1.74 2.34 3.12 4.16 1.94 2.60 3.48 4.64 1.57 2.11 2.82 3.75
56

Table S-4, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

Census Region 4 (Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, Wyoming)

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 --------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL------------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.98 1.02 1.03 1.04 1.05 

2003 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.02 0.93 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 

2004 0.97 0.99 1.02 1.05 0.95 0.98 1.01 1.04 0.93 0.96 0.98 1.01 0.91 0.94 0.96 0.99 1.05 1.09 1.12 1.15 

2005 0.94 0.98 1.01 1.05 0.98 1.01 1.05 1.09 0.95 0.99 1.03 1.07 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.07 1.11 1.15 1.20 

2006 0.92 0.96 1.01 1.06 0.99 1.04 1.10 1.15 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.13 0.95 1.00 1.05 1.10 1.08 1.14 1.19 1.25 

2007 0.88 0.93 0.99 1.04 1.02 1.08 1.15 1.22 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19 0.97 1.03 1.09 1.16 1.10 1.17 1.24 1.31 

2008 0.86 0.92 0.99 1.06 1.04 1.12 1.19 1.28 1.02 1.10 1.17 1.25 0.99 1.06 1.14 1.22 1.11 1.19 1.27 1.36 

2009 0.87 0.94 1.01 1.09 1.07 1.16 1.25 1.35 1.05 1.14 1.23 1.32 1.02 1.10 1.19 1.28 1.12 1.21 1.30 1.41 

2010 0.87 0.95 1.04 1.13 1.10 1.20 1.31 1.43 1.07 1.17 1.28 1.39 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.36 1.14 1.24 1.36 1.48 

2011 0.88 0.97 1.07 1.17 1.13 1.25 1.37 1.51 1.10 1.22 1.34 1.47 1.09 1.20 1.32 1.45 1.15 1.27 1.40 1.54 

2012 0.89 0.99 1.10 1.22 1.16 1.29 1.44 1.60 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.55 1.12 1.25 1.39 1.54 1.17 1.30 1.44 1.60 

2013 0.91 1.02 1.14 1.28 1.19 1.34 1.50 1.69 1.16 1.30 1.46 1.64 1.15 1.29 1.45 1.63 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 

2014 0.93 1.06 1.20 1.36 1.22 1.38 1.57 1.78 1.18 1.34 1.52 1.73 1.18 1.34 1.52 1.72 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.74 

2015 0.96 1.10 1.25 1.43 1.26 1.44 1.65 1.89 1.21 1.39 1.59 1.82 1.21 1.39 1.59 1.82 1.21 1.39 1.59 1.82 

2016 0.98 1.13 1.31 1.51 1.30 1.50 1.73 2.00 1.24 1.44 1.66 1.92 1.25 1.45 1.67 1.93 1.23 1.42 1.64 1.89 

2017 1.01 1.18 1.37 1.60 1.33 1.55 1.81 2.11 1.27 1.49 1.74 2.03 1.29 1.51 1.76 2.05 1.24 1.45 1.69 1.97 

2018 1.03 1.21 1.43 1.68 1.36 1.60 1.89 2.22 1.31 1.54 1.82 2.14 1.33 1.57 1.85 2.17 1.25 1.47 1.73 2.04 

2019 1.04 1.24 1.48 1.76 1.39 1.65 1.97 2.33 1.34 1.59 1.90 2.25 1.37 1.64 1.95 2.31 1.26 1.50 1.79 2.13 

2020 1.07 1.29 1.55 1.86 1.42 1.71 2.06 2.47 1.37 1.65 1.98 2.38 1.43 1.72 2.06 2.48 1.27 1.53 1.83 2.20 

2021 1.10 1.34 1.62 1.96 1.46 1.77 2.15 2.61 1.40 1.71 2.07 2.51 1.48 1.80 2.18 2.64 1.29 1.57 1.91 2.31 

2022 1.12 1.38 1.69 2.06 1.49 1.83 2.25 2.75 1.44 1.77 2.16 2.65 1.53 1.87 2.30 2.81 1.31 1.61 1.97 2.40 

2023 1.15 1.42 1.76 2.17 1.53 1.89 2.34 2.89 1.48 1.83 2.26 2.79 1.58 1.96 2.42 2.99 1.33 1.65 2.05 2.52 

2024 1.17 1.47 1.83 2.28 1.56 1.96 2.45 3.05 1.51 1.90 2.37 2.95 1.63 2.03 2.54 3.17 1.36 1.70 2.13 2.65 

2025 1.20 1.52 1.91 2.40 1.60 2.02 2.55 3.20 1.55 1.96 2.47 3.11 1.68 2.12 2.68 3.37 1.38 1.74 2.19 2.76 

2026 1.23 1.56 1.99 2.53 1.64 2.09 2.66 3.38 1.59 2.03 2.58 3.28 1.73 2.21 2.82 3.58 1.40 1.79 2.28 2.90 

2027 1.25 1.61 2.07 2.66 1.67 2.16 2.77 3.56 1.63 2.10 2.70 3.46 1.79 2.31 2.96 3.80 1.43 1.85 2.37 3.04 

2028 1.28 1.67 2.16 2.80 1.71 2.23 2.89 3.75 1.67 2.17 2.82 3.65 1.85 2.40 3.12 4.04 1.46 1.90 2.47 3.20 

2029 1.31 1.72 2.25 2.95 1.75 2.30 3.02 3.94 1.71 2.25 2.95 3.86 1.91 2.51 3.29 4.30 1.49 1.96 2.57 3.36 

2030 1.34 1.77 2.35 3.10 1.79 2.38 3.15 4.16 1.76 2.33 3.09 4.07 1.97 2.62 3.46 4.57 1.52 2.02 2.67 3.52 

2031 1.37 1.83 2.45 3.26 1.83 2.46 3.28 4.38 1.80 2.41 3.23 4.30 2.03 2.73 3.64 4.85 1.55 2.08 2.78 3.70
57

Table S-5. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 -------------------------------------------------RESIDENTIAL---------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil LPG Natural Gas 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.97 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.01 

2003 1.00 1.02 1.04 1.06 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.99 0.97 0.99 1.01 1.03 0.95 0.96 0.98 1.00 

2004 1.01 1.04 1.07 1.10 0.96 0.98 1.01 1.04 0.99 1.02 1.05 1.08 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 

2005 1.01 1.06 1.10 1.14 0.98 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.02 1.06 1.10 1.14 0.94 0.98 1.02 1.06 

2006 1.04 1.09 1.14 1.20 0.99 1.04 1.09 1.15 1.03 1.09 1.14 1.20 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 

2007 1.05 1.12 1.18 1.25 1.02 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.06 1.13 1.20 1.27 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.16 

2008 1.07 1.15 1.23 1.31 1.04 1.12 1.19 1.28 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.33 0.99 1.06 1.14 1.22 

2009 1.09 1.18 1.27 1.38 1.07 1.16 1.25 1.35 1.12 1.21 1.30 1.41 1.01 1.09 1.18 1.27 

2010 1.11 1.22 1.33 1.44 1.10 1.21 1.31 1.43 1.14 1.25 1.36 1.49 1.03 1.12 1.22 1.33 

2011 1.13 1.25 1.38 1.52 1.13 1.24 1.37 1.51 1.17 1.29 1.42 1.56 1.04 1.15 1.27 1.40 

2012 1.15 1.28 1.43 1.59 1.16 1.29 1.43 1.59 1.20 1.33 1.48 1.65 1.06 1.18 1.31 1.46 

2013 1.18 1.32 1.49 1.67 1.19 1.34 1.50 1.68 1.20 1.35 1.51 1.70 1.08 1.21 1.36 1.53 

2014 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.76 1.22 1.38 1.57 1.77 1.20 1.37 1.55 1.75 1.10 1.24 1.41 1.60 

2015 1.24 1.42 1.62 1.85 1.26 1.45 1.66 1.89 1.24 1.42 1.62 1.86 1.12 1.28 1.47 1.68 

2016 1.26 1.46 1.69 1.95 1.30 1.50 1.74 2.01 1.27 1.47 1.70 1.96 1.14 1.32 1.53 1.76 

2017 1.29 1.51 1.76 2.06 1.33 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.29 1.51 1.76 2.05 1.17 1.36 1.59 1.85 

2018 1.32 1.56 1.84 2.16 1.37 1.61 1.90 2.24 1.32 1.56 1.84 2.16 1.19 1.40 1.66 1.95 

2019 1.35 1.60 1.91 2.27 1.40 1.67 1.99 2.36 1.35 1.61 1.91 2.27 1.22 1.45 1.73 2.06 

2020 1.37 1.65 1.99 2.38 1.43 1.73 2.07 2.49 1.37 1.65 1.99 2.38 1.25 1.51 1.81 2.17 

2021 1.40 1.71 2.07 2.51 1.46 1.78 2.16 2.61 1.40 1.71 2.07 2.51 1.29 1.57 1.90 2.30 

2022 1.43 1.76 2.16 2.64 1.50 1.84 2.25 2.75 1.43 1.76 2.16 2.63 1.32 1.62 1.99 2.43 

2023 1.47 1.82 2.25 2.77 1.53 1.90 2.35 2.90 1.46 1.81 2.24 2.77 1.36 1.68 2.08 2.57 

2024 1.50 1.87 2.34 2.92 1.57 1.96 2.45 3.05 1.50 1.87 2.34 2.91 1.40 1.75 2.18 2.72 

2025 1.53 1.93 2.44 3.07 1.60 2.02 2.55 3.21 1.53 1.93 2.44 3.06 1.43 1.81 2.29 2.88 

2026 1.56 1.99 2.54 3.23 1.64 2.09 2.66 3.38 1.56 1.99 2.53 3.22 1.47 1.88 2.40 3.04 

2027 1.60 2.06 2.64 3.39 1.67 2.15 2.77 3.55 1.59 2.05 2.64 3.39 1.51 1.95 2.51 3.22 

2028 1.63 2.12 2.76 3.57 1.71 2.22 2.89 3.74 1.63 2.12 2.75 3.56 1.56 2.03 2.63 3.40 

2029 1.67 2.19 2.87 3.75 1.75 2.30 3.01 3.93 1.66 2.19 2.86 3.74 1.60 2.10 2.75 3.60 

2030 1.70 2.26 2.99 3.95 1.79 2.37 3.14 4.14 1.70 2.25 2.98 3.94 1.64 2.18 2.88 3.81 

2031 1.74 2.33 3.11 4.15 1.83 2.45 3.27 4.36 1.74 2.33 3.11 4.14 1.69 2.26 3.03 4.03 

 
58

Table S-5, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 ---------------------------------------------------------------COMMERCIAL-----------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.94 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.00 1.00 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.04 

2003 0.98 1.00 1.02 1.04 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.90 0.92 0.94 0.96 0.94 0.96 0.98 0.99 1.03 1.05 1.07 1.09 

2004 0.99 1.01 1.04 1.08 0.93 0.95 0.98 1.01 0.92 0.94 0.97 1.00 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 1.04 1.07 1.10 1.14 

2005 0.97 1.01 1.05 1.09 0.95 0.99 1.03 1.07 0.94 0.98 1.01 1.05 0.95 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.05 1.10 1.14 1.18 

2006 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 0.96 1.01 1.06 1.11 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.11 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.13 1.07 1.12 1.18 1.23 

2007 0.95 1.01 1.07 1.13 0.99 1.05 1.11 1.18 0.98 1.04 1.10 1.16 1.01 1.07 1.13 1.20 1.08 1.15 1.22 1.29 

2008 0.94 1.01 1.08 1.15 1.01 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.00 1.07 1.15 1.23 1.03 1.11 1.18 1.27 1.09 1.17 1.25 1.33 

2009 0.95 1.02 1.10 1.19 1.04 1.13 1.22 1.31 1.02 1.11 1.20 1.29 1.06 1.14 1.24 1.34 1.10 1.19 1.29 1.39 

2010 0.96 1.05 1.14 1.24 1.08 1.18 1.28 1.40 1.05 1.15 1.25 1.36 1.09 1.19 1.30 1.41 1.12 1.22 1.33 1.45 

2011 0.97 1.07 1.18 1.30 1.10 1.22 1.34 1.48 1.07 1.18 1.30 1.43 1.11 1.22 1.35 1.48 1.13 1.25 1.37 1.51 

2012 0.98 1.10 1.22 1.35 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.56 1.10 1.23 1.36 1.51 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.55 1.15 1.28 1.42 1.58 

2013 1.00 1.13 1.27 1.42 1.17 1.31 1.47 1.65 1.13 1.27 1.42 1.59 1.15 1.30 1.46 1.64 1.17 1.31 1.48 1.66 

2014 1.03 1.17 1.33 1.51 1.20 1.36 1.54 1.74 1.16 1.31 1.49 1.68 1.18 1.34 1.52 1.72 1.18 1.34 1.52 1.73 

2015 1.06 1.22 1.39 1.59 1.25 1.43 1.64 1.87 1.18 1.35 1.55 1.77 1.20 1.38 1.58 1.81 1.20 1.38 1.57 1.80 

2016 1.09 1.26 1.46 1.68 1.29 1.49 1.72 1.99 1.21 1.40 1.62 1.87 1.23 1.43 1.65 1.90 1.21 1.40 1.61 1.86 

2017 1.12 1.31 1.52 1.78 1.32 1.55 1.81 2.10 1.24 1.45 1.69 1.97 1.26 1.48 1.72 2.01 1.23 1.44 1.68 1.96 

2018 1.14 1.35 1.59 1.87 1.36 1.60 1.89 2.23 1.27 1.50 1.77 2.08 1.30 1.53 1.80 2.12 1.25 1.47 1.73 2.04 

2019 1.17 1.39 1.65 1.97 1.40 1.67 1.98 2.36 1.30 1.55 1.85 2.19 1.33 1.59 1.89 2.25 1.26 1.50 1.79 2.13 

2020 1.20 1.44 1.73 2.07 1.43 1.73 2.07 2.49 1.34 1.61 1.93 2.32 1.37 1.65 1.99 2.38 1.28 1.54 1.85 2.22 

2021 1.22 1.49 1.81 2.19 1.47 1.78 2.16 2.62 1.37 1.66 2.01 2.44 1.41 1.72 2.09 2.53 1.29 1.57 1.91 2.31 

2022 1.25 1.54 1.88 2.30 1.50 1.84 2.26 2.76 1.40 1.72 2.11 2.57 1.46 1.79 2.19 2.68 1.32 1.62 1.98 2.42 

2023 1.28 1.59 1.96 2.42 1.54 1.91 2.36 2.91 1.44 1.78 2.20 2.72 1.50 1.86 2.30 2.83 1.34 1.65 2.05 2.53 

2024 1.31 1.64 2.05 2.55 1.57 1.97 2.46 3.07 1.47 1.84 2.29 2.86 1.54 1.93 2.41 3.00 1.36 1.70 2.13 2.65 

2025 1.34 1.69 2.14 2.69 1.61 2.03 2.56 3.23 1.51 1.90 2.40 3.02 1.58 2.00 2.52 3.17 1.38 1.74 2.20 2.76 

2026 1.37 1.75 2.23 2.83 1.65 2.10 2.67 3.40 1.54 1.97 2.51 3.18 1.63 2.08 2.64 3.36 1.41 1.79 2.29 2.90 

2027 1.40 1.81 2.32 2.98 1.68 2.17 2.79 3.58 1.58 2.04 2.62 3.36 1.67 2.16 2.77 3.56 1.43 1.85 2.38 3.05 

2028 1.43 1.87 2.42 3.14 1.72 2.24 2.91 3.77 1.62 2.11 2.74 3.55 1.72 2.24 2.91 3.77 1.46 1.90 2.47 3.20 

2029 1.47 1.93 2.53 3.30 1.76 2.32 3.04 3.97 1.66 2.18 2.86 3.74 1.77 2.33 3.05 3.99 1.49 1.96 2.57 3.36 

2030 1.50 1.99 2.64 3.48 1.81 2.40 3.17 4.19 1.70 2.26 2.99 3.95 1.82 2.42 3.20 4.23 1.52 2.02 2.67 3.53 

2031 1.54 2.06 2.75 3.66 1.85 2.48 3.31 4.41 1.75 2.34 3.13 4.17 1.87 2.51 3.36 4.47 1.55 2.08 2.78 3.70 
59

Table S-5, continued. Projected fuel price indices with assumed general price inflation rates

of 2, 3, 4, and 5 percent, by end-use sector and fuel type.

United States Average

Projected April 1 Fuel Price Indices (April 1, 2001 = 1.00)

 ---------------------------------------------------------------INDUSTRIAL-----------------------------------------------------------

 Electricity Distillate Oil Residual Oil Natural Gas Coal 

 ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ ------------------------ 

 Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate Inflation Rate 

Year 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 2% 3% 4% 5% 

2002 0.99 1.00 1.01 1.02 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.93 0.94 0.95 0.96 0.92 0.93 0.94 0.95 1.01 1.02 1.03 1.03 

2003 0.99 1.01 1.03 1.05 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.97 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.86 0.88 0.89 0.91 1.02 1.04 1.06 1.08 

2004 1.00 1.03 1.07 1.10 0.93 0.96 0.99 1.02 0.91 0.93 0.96 0.99 0.84 0.86 0.89 0.91 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 

2005 0.99 1.03 1.07 1.12 0.96 1.00 1.04 1.08 0.93 0.96 1.00 1.04 0.85 0.89 0.92 0.96 1.05 1.09 1.14 1.18 

2006 0.98 1.03 1.08 1.14 0.97 1.02 1.07 1.12 0.95 0.99 1.04 1.09 0.88 0.92 0.97 1.02 1.06 1.12 1.17 1.23 

2007 0.97 1.03 1.09 1.16 1.00 1.06 1.12 1.19 0.97 1.03 1.09 1.15 0.91 0.96 1.02 1.08 1.08 1.14 1.21 1.28 

2008 0.97 1.04 1.11 1.18 1.02 1.09 1.17 1.25 0.99 1.06 1.14 1.21 0.93 1.00 1.07 1.14 1.08 1.16 1.24 1.33 

2009 0.97 1.05 1.14 1.23 1.05 1.14 1.23 1.32 1.01 1.10 1.18 1.28 0.96 1.04 1.12 1.21 1.10 1.18 1.28 1.38 

2010 0.99 1.08 1.18 1.28 1.09 1.19 1.29 1.41 1.04 1.14 1.24 1.35 0.98 1.07 1.17 1.28 1.11 1.21 1.32 1.44 

2011 1.00 1.10 1.22 1.34 1.11 1.23 1.35 1.49 1.06 1.17 1.29 1.42 1.01 1.11 1.23 1.35 1.12 1.24 1.36 1.50 

2012 1.02 1.13 1.26 1.40 1.15 1.28 1.42 1.58 1.09 1.22 1.35 1.50 1.04 1.15 1.28 1.42 1.14 1.27 1.42 1.57 

2013 1.04 1.16 1.31 1.47 1.18 1.33 1.49 1.67 1.12 1.26 1.41 1.58 1.07 1.20 1.35 1.51 1.16 1.30 1.46 1.64 

2014 1.06 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.21 1.37 1.55 1.76 1.15 1.30 1.47 1.67 1.10 1.25 1.41 1.60 1.17 1.33 1.51 1.71 

2015 1.09 1.25 1.43 1.64 1.26 1.44 1.65 1.89 1.17 1.34 1.54 1.76 1.13 1.30 1.49 1.70 1.19 1.36 1.56 1.78 

2016 1.12 1.30 1.50 1.73 1.30 1.50 1.74 2.01 1.20 1.39 1.61 1.86 1.17 1.36 1.57 1.81 1.20 1.39 1.61 1.85 

2017 1.15 1.35 1.58 1.84 1.33 1.56 1.82 2.12 1.23 1.44 1.68 1.96 1.21 1.42 1.65 1.93 1.22 1.43 1.67 1.95 

2018 1.18 1.40 1.65 1.94 1.37 1.61 1.90 2.24 1.26 1.49 1.75 2.06 1.25 1.48 1.74 2.05 1.24 1.46 1.72 2.03 

2019 1.21 1.44 1.72 2.04 1.41 1.68 2.00 2.37 1.29 1.54 1.84 2.18 1.30 1.55 1.85 2.20 1.25 1.49 1.78 2.11 

2020 1.24 1.50 1.80 2.16 1.45 1.74 2.09 2.51 1.33 1.60 1.92 2.30 1.36 1.64 1.96 2.36 1.27 1.53 1.83 2.20 

2021 1.27 1.55 1.88 2.28 1.48 1.80 2.18 2.64 1.36 1.65 2.00 2.42 1.41 1.71 2.08 2.51 1.28 1.56 1.89 2.29 

2022 1.30 1.60 1.96 2.40 1.52 1.86 2.28 2.79 1.39 1.71 2.09 2.56 1.46 1.79 2.19 2.67 1.31 1.61 1.97 2.41 

2023 1.34 1.66 2.05 2.53 1.55 1.92 2.38 2.94 1.43 1.77 2.19 2.70 1.50 1.86 2.30 2.84 1.32 1.64 2.03 2.50 

2024 1.37 1.71 2.14 2.66 1.59 1.99 2.48 3.09 1.46 1.83 2.28 2.84 1.55 1.94 2.42 3.02 1.35 1.69 2.11 2.63 

2025 1.40 1.77 2.23 2.81 1.62 2.05 2.59 3.26 1.50 1.89 2.39 3.00 1.60 2.02 2.55 3.21 1.38 1.74 2.19 2.76 

2026 1.43 1.83 2.33 2.96 1.66 2.12 2.70 3.43 1.54 1.96 2.50 3.17 1.65 2.11 2.69 3.41 1.40 1.79 2.28 2.90 

2027 1.47 1.89 2.43 3.12 1.70 2.19 2.82 3.62 1.58 2.03 2.61 3.35 1.71 2.20 2.83 3.63 1.43 1.85 2.37 3.04 

2028 1.50 1.95 2.54 3.28 1.74 2.27 2.94 3.81 1.62 2.10 2.73 3.53 1.76 2.29 2.98 3.85 1.46 1.90 2.47 3.20 

2029 1.54 2.02 2.65 3.46 1.78 2.34 3.07 4.01 1.66 2.18 2.85 3.73 1.82 2.39 3.13 4.10 1.49 1.96 2.57 3.36 

2030 1.57 2.09 2.76 3.65 1.82 2.42 3.20 4.22 1.70 2.25 2.98 3.94 1.88 2.50 3.31 4.36 1.52 2.02 2.67 3.52 

2031 1.61 2.16 2.88 3.84 1.86 2.50 3.34 4.45 1.74 2.33 3.12 4.16 1.94 2.60 3.48 4.63 1.55 2.08 2.78 3.70