# Simulation Results



# Iterations **Seed 1** 

0 $131 1 $137 2 $141 3 $146 4 $157 5 $166 6 $192 7 $199 8 $230 9 $247 10 $308

**The abov e simulation results are based on the follow** **ing options:** 

# Iterations10000 Energy Price Trend

# AEO 2010 Reference Efficiency Market Share Scenario

# Rollup Manufacturing Cost Scenario

# Base Case

**5% 25%**  **50% 1**  -1.0 2.9 7.5 **2** -2.8 3.0 9.8 

# Simulation Controls

**Installed Price**  **Ave rage Life-Cy** **cle Cost Efficiency**  **Lev el**  **Efficiency Lev** **el Description**  -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7**C o** **s t** **( $** **2 0** **0 9** **)**



## Efficiency **L ev** **el Life** 

**- Cy** **cle Cost** **Sav ings** 

75%

Median
25%

Mean 

# RunSimulation



# RunSensitiv

ities 

# RunRef erenceCase **10000**

## 3 -6.4 1.4 10.6 **4** -15.6 -5.2 5.8 **5** -22.5 -10.0 3.2 **6** -45.9 -31.7 -16.7 **7** -51.2 -34.9 -17.4 **8** -80.1 -62.2 -43.0 **9** -94.8 -74.8 -53.3 **10** -151.8 -128.2 -102.6

**5% 25%**  **50% 1**  1.0 1.4 1.8 **2** 1.2 1.6 2.1 **3** 1.5 2.0 2.5 **4** 2.1 2.8 3.5 **5** 2.3 3.1 3.9 **6** 3.5 4.7 6.0 **7** 3.4 4.6 5.8 **8** 4.4 6.0 7.7 **9** 4.7 6.3 8.0 **10** 6.0 8.1 10.4

## Net Cost**No Impact Net Benefit** **Median Ave** **rage**

$167 $298 $151 $287 $11 9.01% 1.60% 89.39% 1.8 1.7 $143 $284 $14 13.62% 1.39% 84.99% 2.1 2.0 $135 $281 $17 19.66% 1.39% 78.95% 2.5 2.4 $127 $284 $14 36.75% 1.00% 62.25% 3.5 3.4 $119 $285 $13 43.44% 0.92% 55.64% 3.9 3.8 $112 $304 -$6 71.33% 0.00% 28.67% 6.0 5.9 $104 $303 -$5 69.81% 0.00% 30.19% 5.8 5.7 $97 $327 -$29 83.54% 0.00% 16.46% 7.7 7.5 $89 $336 -$38 85.44% 0.00% 14.56% 8.0 7.8 $75 $383 -$85 92.15% 0.00% 7.85% 10.4 10.1

**The abov e simulation results are based on the follow** **ing options:**



# AEO 2010 Reference

**75% 95%**  **5% 25%**  **50% 75%**  **95% Ave** **rage** 13.6 32.2 **1** 3.9 2.9 4.6 6.1 18.6 10.6 19.0 46.9 **2** 5.8 3.0 6.9 9.1 27.9 14.5 **An nual**  **Operating Cost** * **Life-Cy cle** 

**Cost Ave** **rage Life-Cy cle Cost**  **Life-Cy cle Cost Sav** **ings**

**Ave rage**  **Sav ings** 

LCC BoxPlot Calculations **Households that Experience Pay** **back Period (y ears)**  8 9 10

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8**Y e** **a r** **s**



## Efficiency **L ev** **el Pay** **back Period** 

75%

Median
25%

Mean

## 22.8 60.1 **3** 7.8 1.4 9.2 12.2 37.3 16.8

21.0 67.7 **4** 10.3 -5.2 11.0 15.2 46.7 13.6 21.5 77.5 **5** 12.5 -10.0 13.2 18.3 56.0 12.6 4.1 68.2 **6** 14.2 -31.7 15.0 20.8 64.2 -6.0 6.2 80.1 **7** 16.2 -34.9 17.5 23.7 73.9 -5.3 -16.7 64.8 **8** 17.9 -62.2 19.2 26.3 81.5 -29.5 -24.1 67.2 **9** 20.0 -74.8 21.5 29.3 91.2 -38.3 -68.2 40.0 **10** 23.6 -128.2 25.6 34.4 108.2 -85.0

**75% 95%**  **5% 25%**  **50% 75%**  **95% Ave** **rage** 2.0 2.2 **1** 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.7 2.4 2.6 **2** 0.4 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 2.0 2.9 3.2 **3** 0.5 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 2.4 4.1 4.5 **4** 0.7 2.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 3.4 4.5 5.0 **5** 0.8 3.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 3.8 6.9 7.9 **6** 1.2 4.7 1.3 0.9 1.0 5.9 6.7 7.7 **7** 1.2 4.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 5.7 8.8 10.1 **8** 1.5 6.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 7.5 9.3 10.6 **9** 1.6 6.3 1.8 1.2 1.3 7.8 11.9 13.6 **10** 2.1 8.1 2.3 1.6 1.7 10.1

PBP BoxPlot Calculations

## 9 10**LCC Summary Compact Refrigerator** 

**User Input: Import Parameters**  **ANNUAL CASH FLOW CALCULATION : Engineering Data**  **Average Elec**  **Energy Price Trend** NIA flag 0 **from Equipment Price**  $48 Installed Price **Age Year**  $/kWh CO2 Price flag0 **from Energy Use** **:** 329 kWh TECBase 2007 $0.11 **Efficiency Market Share Scenario** 0 1 2014 $0.10 **Manufacturing Cost Scenario from** **Discount Rate** 7.1% Discount rate 2 2015 $0.10 **from Energy Prices** **:** 3 2016 $0.10 **Average Lifetime** 6 2014 Electricity Price$0.102 $/kWh(in 2009$) 4 2017 $0.10 **Average Volume (cu. Ft)** 1.5 5 2018 $0.10 **Sector Parameters from** **Base Case Eff Dist** Base Case Level 6 2019 $0.10 2 **Share** 0 7 2020 $0.10 **Residential** 21% 8 2021 $0.11

**> Commercial**  79% 9 2022 $0.11 **Links :** 10 2023 $0.11

Base Case Eff Dist Equipment Price 11 2024 $0.11 Energy Use Energy Prices 12 2025 $0.11 Energy Price Trends Discount Rate 13 2026 $0.11 Lifetime Standards 14 2027 $0.11 AV Equations 15 2028 $0.11 16 2029 $0.11 **Compact Refrigerators :** 17 2030 $0.11 **Installed TEC**  **Annual Cumulative**  **Life LCC**  **Price Oper. Cost** **Payback Net**  **No Payback**  18 2031 $0.11 **Level Efficiency Level Source**  **Price Elec**  **Oper. Cost Cash Flow**  **Cycle Cost Savings** **Increase Saving**  **Period Cost**  **Impact undefined**  19 2032 $0.11 $ kWh/yr $ / year $ $ $ year 20 2033 $0.12

**>** 0 1.00 $48 329 $35.00 $181 $160 21 2034 $0.12 1 1.10 $53 296 $31.64 $173 $155 $6 $5 $3.4 1.56 22 2035 $0.12 2 1.15 $57 280 $29.97 $171 $153 $7 $9 $5.0 1.83 23 2036 $0.12 3 1.20 $63 264 $28.27 $170 $154 $7 $15 $6.7 2.21 24 2037 $0.12 4 1.25 $74 247 $26.58 $175 $160 $1 $26 $8.4 3.10 25 2038 $0.12 5 1.30 $83 231 $24.88 $177 $163 -$3 $35 $10.1 3.47 1 26 2039 $0.12 6 1.35 $108 214 $23.42 $197 $184 -$23 $60 $11.6 5.22 1 27 2040 $0.12 7 1.40 $116 198 $21.73 $198 $185 -$25 $68 $13.3 5.10 1 28 2041 $0.12 8 1.45 $147 181 $20.28 $223 $212 -$51 $99 $14.7 6.69 1 29 2042 $0.12 9 1.50 $163 165 $18.58 $234 $223 -$62 $115 $16.4 7.02 1 30 2043 $0.12 10 1.59 $224 136 $15.63 $283 $274 -$113 $176 $19.4 9.07 1 31 2044 $0.12

**Base Case Efficiency Level (and % market share)** 32 2045 $0.13 **LCC Savings** 98.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33 2046 $0.13

**Level Efficiency Level**  Efficiency **0 1**  **2 3**  **4 5**  **6 7**  **8** Total PopulationAffected

Population 34 2047 $0.13 **1** Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 $6 $5.6 $5.5 $5.60 35 2048 $0.13 **2** Default 2012 Standard 1.15 $7 $7.0 $1.4 $6.9 $6.99 36 2049 $0.13 **3** Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 $7 $6.8 $1.2 -$0.2 $6.7 $6.80 37 2050 $0.13 **4** Added base on Stkholders 1.25 $1 $1.0 -$4.6 -$6.0 -$5.8 $0.9 $0.93 38 2051 $0.13 **5** Max Available 1.30 -$3 -$2.5 -$8.1 -$9.6 -$9.4 -$3.5 -$2.6 -$2.59 **6** Max Available 1.35 -$23 -$23.1 -$28.7 -$30.1 -$29.9 -$24.0 -$20.5 -$23.1 -$23.09 **7** Max Available 1.40 -$25 -$25.0 -$30.6 -$32.0 -$31.8 -$25.9 -$22.4 -$1.9 -$25.0 -$24.99 **8** Max Available 1.45 -$51 -$51.0 -$56.6 -$58.0 -$57.9 -$52.0 -$48.5 -$28.0 -$26.1 -$51.1 -$51.06 **Incremental Equipment Prices** $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 **1** Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 $5 $5.2 $5.1 $5.23 **2** Default 2012 Standard 1.15 $9 $9.2 $4.0 $9.1 $9.19 **3** Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 $15 $14.9 $9.6 $5.7 $14.7 $14.85 **4** Added base on Stkholders 1.25 $26 $26.2 $20.9 $17.0 $11.3 $25.9 $26.08 **5** Max Available 1.30 $35 $35.1 $29.9 $25.9 $20.3 $9.0 $34.8 $35.04 **6** Max Available 1.35 $60 $60.4 $55.2 $51.2 $45.5 $34.2 $25.2 $60.0 $60.02 **7** Max Available 1.40 $68 $67.7 $62.5 $58.5 $52.9 $41.6 $32.6 $7.4 $67.4 $67.38 **8** Max Available 1.45 $99 $98.5 $93.3 $89.3 $83.7 $72.4 $63.4 $38.1 $30.8 $98.2 $98.17 **Operating Cost Savings** $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 **1** Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 $3 $3.4 $3.3 $3.36 **2** Default 2012 Standard 1.15 $5 $5.0 $1.7 $5.0 $5.02 **3** Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 $7 $6.7 $3.4 $1.7 $6.6 $6.72 **4** Added base on Stkholders 1.25 $8 $8.4 $5.1 $3.4 $1.7 $8.3 $8.39 **Efficiency Index** AEO 2010Ref

erence **Samp le C** **alc C** **B Simulat** **ion**

Rollup

BaseCase**5** Max Available 1.30 $10 $10.1 $6.8 $5.1 $3.4 $1.7 $10.0 $10.08

**6** Max Available 1.35 $12 $11.6 $8.2 $6.5 $4.8 $3.2 $1.5 $11.5 $11.46 **7** Max Available 1.40 $13 $13.3 $9.9 $8.2 $6.5 $4.8 $3.2 $1.7 $13.2 $13.15 **8** Max Available 1.45 $15 $14.7 $11.4 $9.7 $8.0 $6.3 $4.6 $3.1 $1.5 $14.6 $14.60 **Payback Periods 1**  Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 1.6 1.6 1.56 **2** Default 2012 Standard 1.15 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.83 **3** Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 2.2 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.21 **4** Added base on Stkholders 1.25 3.1 4.1 5.0 6.7 3.1 3.12 **5** Max Available 1.30 3.5 4.4 5.1 6.0 5.3 3.5 3.49 **6** Max Available 1.35 5.2 6.7 7.8 9.4 10.9 17.3 5.2 5.34 **7** Max Available 1.40 5.1 6.3 7.1 8.1 8.6 10.3 4.3 5.1 5.16 **8** Max Available 1.45 6.7 8.2 9.2 10.5 11.5 13.8 12.1 21.2 6.7 6.77**ANNUAL CASH FLOW CALCULATION :**

**Discount Efficiency Level**  **Factor 0**  **1 2**  **3 4**  **5 6**  **7 8**  **9 10**  7.1% 1.00 $47.97 $53.20 $57.17 $62.83 $74.13 $83.12$108.36$115.72$146.50$163.27$223.66 0.93 $33.72 $30.34 $28.66 $26.97 $25.29 $23.60 $21.91 $20.23 $18.54 $16.86 $13.92 0.87 $35.14 $31.81 $30.16 $28.47 $26.79 $25.10 $23.74 $22.05 $20.69 $19.01 $16.08 0.81 $35.47 $32.11 $30.44 $28.74 $27.04 $25.33 $23.95 $22.25 $20.88 $19.18 $16.21 0.76 $35.68 $32.30 $30.62 $28.91 $27.19 $25.48 $24.09 $22.38 $20.99 $19.28 $16.30 0.71 $35.69 $32.31 $30.63 $28.92 $27.20 $25.49 $24.10 $22.38 $21.00 $19.29 $16.30 0.66 $35.62 $32.25 $30.57 $28.86 $27.15 $25.44 $24.05 $22.34 $20.96 $19.25 $16.27 0.62 $35.87 $32.47 $30.78 $29.06 $27.34 $25.62 $24.21 $22.49 $21.10 $19.38 $16.38 0.58 $36.11 $32.69 $30.99 $29.25 $27.52 $25.78 $24.37 $22.64 $21.23 $19.50 $16.48 0.54 $36.25 $32.81 $31.10 $29.36 $27.62 $25.88 $24.46 $22.72 $21.31 $19.56 $16.54 0.50 $36.51 $33.05 $31.32 $29.57 $27.81 $26.06 $24.63 $22.87 $21.45 $19.69 $16.64 0.47 $36.70 $33.21 $31.48 $29.72 $27.95 $26.19 $24.75 $22.99 $21.55 $19.79 $16.72 0.44 $36.63 $33.15 $31.43 $29.67 $27.91 $26.15 $24.71 $22.95 $21.51 $19.75 $16.69 0.41 $36.82 $33.32 $31.59 $29.82 $28.05 $26.28 $24.83 $23.06 $21.62 $19.85 $16.77 0.38 $37.05 $33.53 $31.78 $30.00 $28.22 $26.44 $24.98 $23.20 $21.75 $19.96 $16.87 0.36 $37.30 $33.76 $31.99 $30.20 $28.41 $26.61 $25.14 $23.35 $21.88 $20.09 $16.97 0.33 $37.83 $34.24 $32.45 $30.63 $28.81 $26.99 $25.49 $23.67 $22.18 $20.36 $17.19 0.31 $38.24 $34.61 $32.80 $30.96 $29.11 $27.27 $25.75 $23.91 $22.40 $20.56 $17.36 0.29 $38.73 $35.04 $33.21 $31.35 $29.48 $27.61 $26.07 $24.21 $22.67 $20.80 $17.56 0.27 $39.18 $35.45 $33.59 $31.70 $29.82 $27.93 $26.36 $24.47 $22.92 $21.03 $17.74 0.25 $39.40 $35.64 $33.78 $31.88 $29.98 $28.08 $26.51 $24.61 $23.04 $21.14 $17.83 0.24 $39.72 $35.94 $34.05 $32.14 $30.22 $28.31 $26.72 $24.80 $23.21 $21.30 $17.97 0.22 $40.00 $36.19 $34.29 $32.36 $30.43 $28.50 $26.90 $24.97 $23.37 $21.44 $18.08 0.21 $40.35 $36.51 $34.59 $32.64 $30.70 $28.75 $27.13 $25.18 $23.56 $21.62 $18.23 0.19 $40.61 $36.74 $34.81 $32.85 $30.89 $28.93 $27.30 $25.34 $23.71 $21.75 $18.34 0.18 $40.87 $36.97 $35.03 $33.06 $31.09 $29.12 $27.47 $25.49 $23.85 $21.88 $18.44 0.17 $41.14 $37.21 $35.26 $33.27 $31.29 $29.30 $27.64 $25.65 $23.99 $22.01 $18.55 0.16 $41.40 $37.45 $35.48 $33.48 $31.49 $29.49 $27.81 $25.81 $24.14 $22.14 $18.66 0.15 $41.67 $37.69 $35.71 $33.70 $31.69 $29.67 $27.98 $25.97 $24.29 $22.27 $18.77 0.14 $41.94 $37.93 $35.94 $33.91 $31.89 $29.86 $28.16 $26.13 $24.43 $22.41 $18.88 0.13 $42.21 $38.18 $36.17 $34.13 $32.09 $30.05 $28.33 $26.29 $24.58 $22.54 $19.00 0.12 $42.48 $38.42 $36.40 $34.35 $32.29 $30.24 $28.51 $26.46 $24.73 $22.68 $19.11

0.11 $42.76 $38.67 $36.63 $34.57 $32.50 $30.43 $28.69 $26.62 $24.88 $22.82 $19.22 0.10 $43.03 $38.92 $36.87 $34.79 $32.71 $30.63 $28.87 $26.79 $25.03 $22.95 $19.33

0.10 $43.31 $39.17 $37.10 $35.01 $32.91 $30.82 $29.05 $26.95 $25.19 $23.09 $19.45 0.09 $43.59 $39.42 $37.34 $35.23 $33.12 $31.02 $29.23 $27.12 $25.34 $23.23 $19.57 0.08 $43.87 $39.67 $37.58 $35.46 $33.34 $31.21 $29.41 $27.29 $25.50 $23.37 $19.68 0.08 $44.15 $39.92 $37.82 $35.68 $33.55 $31.41 $29.60 $27.46 $25.65 $23.52 $19.80 0.07 $44.44 $40.18 $38.06 $35.91 $33.76 $31.61 $29.78 $27.63 $25.81 $23.66 $19.92

# Base Case Eff Dist back to Summary **Compact Refrigerator Market Share Efficiency Data** 

**Base Case**Level **Export Parameters** 0

**To LCC Summary :**  1 2 Base Case Efficiency 1.00 3 Corresponding Eff. Level 0 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Non ES 0 ES

**Non HFC** Level

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Non ES 9 ES 100

# Compact Refrigerator Market Share Efficiency **Data** Efficiency Index 2014 1.00 **98.5%** 0 **98.5%**

1.10 **0.3%** 1 **0.3%** 1.15 **0.0%** 2 **0.0%** 1.20 **0.5%** 3 **0.5%** 1.25 **0.1%** 4 **0.1%** 1.30 **0.8%** 5 **0.8%** 1.35 **0.0%** 6 **0.0%** 1.40 **0.0%** 7 **0.0%** 1.45 **0.0%** 8 **0.0%** 1.50 **0.0%** 9 **0.0%** 1.59 **0.0%** 10 **0.0%** Base Case Efficiency for Household = 1.00

Efficiency Index 2014 1.00 **98.7%** 0 **98.7%** 1.10 **0.0%** 1 **0.0%** 1.15 **0.5%** 2 **0.5%** 1.20 **0.1%** 3 **0.1%** 1.25 **0.8%** 4 **0.8%** 1.30 **0.0%** 5 **0.0%** 1.35 **0.0%** 6 **0.0%** 1.40 **0.0%** 7 **0.0%** 1.45 **0.0%** 8 **0.0%** 1.50 **0.0%** 9 **0.0%** 1.57 **0.0%** 10 **0.0%** Base Case Efficiency for Household = 1.00 Distribution by Efficiency Level

Distribution by Efficiency

Level

# Division back to Summary

**Export Parameters**

**Census Division 2**  From Residential Distribution From Commercial Distribution

**Number of Customers by Divison and Large States** 

**Residential** New England 1 Middle Atlantic 2 East North Central 3 West North Central 4 South Atlantic 5 East South Central 6 West South Central 7 Mountain 8 Pacific 9 New York State 10 California 11 Texas 12 Florida 13

**Commercial** New England 1 Middle Atlantic 2 East North Central 3 West North Central 4 South Atlantic 5 East South Central 6 West South Central 7 Mountain 8 Pacific 9 New York State 10 California 11 Texas 12 Florida 13

# 6 2

**Number of Customers by Divison and Large States** 

6,122,590 8,601,844 19,558,522 8,969,792 16,891,240 7,895,454 4,802,093 8,722,741 5,020,777 6,933,304 12,819,149 9,166,849 8,445,561

831,765 1,133,406 2,372,723 1,339,783 2,366,518 1,338,491 693,435 1,284,080 575,840 1,016,069 1,785,796 1,413,358 1,117,907

# Repair Cost back to Summary

**Export Parameters To LCC Summary** **:** Annual Repair Cost Level 0 $1.43 1 $1.47 2 $1.50 3 $1.50 4 $1.50 5 $1.50 6 $1.82 7 $1.82 8 $2.15 9 $2.15 10 $2.15

# Equipment Price back to Summary

**Export Parameters Compact Refrigerator** (all prices in 2009$) **To LCC Summary :**  Total Installed Price **Level Efficiency**  **Level Source Efficiency**  Level 0 Level 0 1.00 0 $48 1 Level 1 1.10 1 $53 2 Level 2 1.15 2 $57 3 Level 3 1.20 3 $63 4 Level 4 1.25 4 $74 5 Level 5 1.30 5 $83 6 Level 6 1.35 6 $108 7 Level 7 1.40 7 $116 8 Level 8 1.45 8 $147 9 Level 9 1.50 9 $163 10 Level 10 1.59 10 $224 Max Level # 10 **From RECS Household: Markups**  Div & Lrg State **Manufacturer Markup** 100%

Price Trend Factor 0.9030 **Baseline** Retailer Markup 145% Sales Tax 6.6% **Total Markup incl. Sales Tax 155%**  **Baseline Equipment Price** Price of Unit $50.00 Average Price of Baseline Unit 131.87 $ Cost (2008$) Frequency



# 25 149 50 51497 75530305 100205189 125616465 150441822 175290451 200103866 225 35407 250 32110 275 55672 300 12304 325 1676 350 87 375 54 400 17 425 52 450 25 475 14

# 500 59 525 23 550 32 575 20 600 53 625 20 650 11 675 22 700 17 725 41 750 42 775 23 800 60 825 65 850 94 875 113 900 212 925 137 950 135 975 218 1000 168 1025 159 1050 140 1075 360 1100 87 1125 161 1150 118 1175 108 1200 116 1225 83 1250 81 1275 47 1300 20 1325 57 1350 49 1375 178 1400 52 1425 47 1450 129 1475 329 1500 183 1525 152 1550 224 1575 283

# 1600 108 1625 109 1650 160 1675 112 1700 62 1725 102 1750 70 1775 85 1800 111 1825 41 1850 45 1875 80 1900 39 1925 80 1950 27 1975 26 2000 24 2025 15 2050 0 2075 7 2100 26 2125 29 2150 9 2175 0 2200 12 2225 5 2250 9 2275 16 2300 10 2325 0 2350 10 2375 2 2400 20 2425 29 2450 12 2475 5 2500 2 2525 12 2550 24 2575 24 2600 9 2625 10 2650 5 2675 4

# 2700 2 2725 87 2750 0 2775 84 2800 27 2825 92 2850 212 2875 248 2900 72 2925 168 2950 57 2975 169 3000 156 3025 139 3050 86 3075 21 3100 48 3125 79 3150 0 3175 3 3200 0 3225 63 3250 0 3275 0 3300 0 3325 0 3350 0 3375 0 3400 0 3425 0 3450 0 2775 84 2800 27 2825 92 2850 212 2875 248 2900 72 2925 168 2950 57 2975 169 3000 156 3025 139 3050 86 3075 21

# 3100 48 3125 79 3150 0 3175 3 3200 0 3225 63 3250 0 3275 0 3300 0 3325 0 3350 0 3375 0 3400 0 3425 0 3450 0

# Delta Mnfr **Retail Installation**  **Total Installed**

**Price from Base Price**  **Cost Price**  $34.48 $47.97 $0.00 $47.97 $4.19 $53.20 $0.00 $53.20 $7.38 $57.17 $0.00 $57.17 $11.91 $62.83 $0.00 $62.83 $20.97 $74.13 $0.00 $74.13 $28.17 $83.12 $0.00 $83.12 $48.41 $108.36 $0.00 $108.36 $54.31 $115.72 $0.00 $115.72 $78.99 $146.50 $0.00 $146.50 $92.42 $163.27 $0.00 $163.27 $140.83 $223.66 $0.00 $223.66

**Sales Tax by**

**Divison and Large States** Refrigerators 

# 1 New England 6.1% 4.8% 2 Mid Atlantic 6.6% 7.3% **Incremental** 3 East North Central 6.9% 16.7% 117% 4 West North Central 6.9% 7.5% 6.6% 5 South Atlantic 6.6% 13.5% **125%** 6 East South Central 7.9% 6.0% 7 West South Central 8.4% 3.4% 8 Mountain 6.8% 6.6% 9 Pacific 7.5% 4.3% 10 New York State 8.5% 6.1% 11 California 9.2% 10.7% 12 Texas 8.1% 6.9% 13 Florida 6.7% 6.0%

U.S. Average 7.3% Fraction of Households by Division and Large State

# Delta Manufacturing Cost

**Level Eff Improvement**  **Base Case**

**Eff Improvement**

**Non HFC** 0 - - 1 10% $4.64 

# 10.00% 5.46 $ 2 15% $8.17 

# 15.00%10.02 $ 3 20% $13.19 

# 20.00%18.62 $ 4 25% $23.22 

# 25.00%26.71 $
5 30% $31.20 

# 30.00%43.93 $ 6 35% $53.61 

# 35.00%55.44 $
7 40% $60.14 

# 40.00%73.55 $ 8 45% $87.47 

# 45.00%93.05 $ 9 50% $102.35 

# 50.0%114.81 $ 10 

# 58.7%155.96

$ 56.6%153.75 $

Freezers 

# 3.2% 6.0% 18.7% 11.1% 15.4% 8.2% 5.2% 8.2% 6.1% 2.9% 5.5% 6.1% 3.3% Fraction of Households by Division and Large State

# UAF Calculation back to Summary

Household idDOEIDYEARMADENWEIGHTREGIONCDIVISIONLRGSTATE HD65 CD65 1 97 12 25501 3 7 3 1264 3264 2 207 3 24789 4 9 2 2480 46 3 285 3 3324 1 1 0 7046 624 4 288 5 20184 4 8 0 7121 134 5 470 4 32187 1 2 0 4924 1319 6 531 7 24393 2 4 0 5591 1385 7 568 3 36753 3 5 4 554 3576 8 639 8 34572 3 5 4 568 2952 9 651 4 37266 2 3 0 5060 1345 10 667 9 27504 3 5 0 4048 954 11 721 12 31026 3 7 3 1127 3922 12 726 1 8605 4 9 2 2505 63 13 761 6 27169 4 9 0 6430 241 14 819 1 29329 1 2 0 4719 1530 15 877 6 32103 3 5 0 4660 1363 16 902 4 19637 4 9 2 692 1196 17 909 5 25501 3 7 3 1035 3060 18 975 5 12269 1 1 0 6843 668 19 1175 5 22408 2 4 0 7239 402 20 1186 4 30186 2 3 0 5287 1318 21 1236 12 24383 2 4 0 5812 1328 22 1258 1 16339 3 6 0 3607 1745 23 1299 3 30281 2 3 0 7314 765 24 1382 1 15452 1 1 0 7575 486 25 1415 3 4440 3 5 0 4151 1809 26 1426 5 26279 2 3 0 6096 986 27 1461 1 5777 2 3 0 5511 1211 28 1535 9 26331 2 4 0 7620 644 29 1547 3 26008 4 9 2 2576 22 30 1567 9 22697 4 9 2 1242 855 31 1613 4 17489 1 1 0 6575 751 32 1653 7 31475 2 3 0 4851 1355 33 1705 2 5941 1 1 0 6450 824 34 1714 11 31026 3 7 3 1170 3388 35 1763 3 30186 2 3 0 5083 1568 36 1778 9 36589 3 5 0 4631 1372 37 1815 4 28060 2 3 0 7238 855 38 1850 7 38455 4 9 2 1312 403 39 1896 5 22807 4 9 0 4277 211 40 1940 10 5606 4 9 0 5408 706 41 1983 12 33936 4 9 2 623 4728 42 1989 1 26059 4 9 0 7607 77 43 2037 3 35857 3 7 3 1711 2566 44 2071 2 31905 2 3 0 6397 937 45 2077 6 21345 4 9 2 1121 1232 46 2124 3 23269 4 8 0 706 4997 47 2175 4 27419 3 7 0 1538 3013 48 2476 9 13439 4 9 0 16 3621 49 2554 1 16373 1 1 0 6518 804 50 2643 12 29329 1 2 0 5435 1282

## 51 2682 3 25715 3 7 3 2334 2042

52 2707 1 42408 1 2 1 4902 1247 53 2716 6 19400 4 9 0 6716 176 54 2833 2 29238 1 2 0 5016 1291 55 2930 5 26026 4 9 0 4471 160 56 2970 8 28069 3 6 0 1654 2466 57 2990 1 8605 4 9 2 2514 58 58 3023 10 31737 4 9 2 1244 525 59 3050 1 5941 1 1 0 6452 840 60 3241 1 22136 3 6 0 3697 1638 61 3294 4 30599 3 7 3 1804 3394 62 3444 5 29067 1 2 0 5615 1022 63 3502 4 19093 3 6 0 4374 1265 64 3518 8 34000 2 3 0 6952 915 65 3577 8 13423 1 1 0 7874 568 66 3586 4 30416 3 5 0 4731 1387 67 3629 8 30196 4 9 2 1244 1605 68 3647 6 21345 4 9 2 839 860 69 3784 4 19969 4 9 2 2255 476 70 3811 9 22231 4 8 0 6581 276 71 3860 3 19637 4 9 2 613 1587 72 4035 7 49195 3 5 0 5052 1099 73 4081 12 26058 3 6 0 4009 1460 74 4129 4 22418 3 6 0 5223 1290 75 4134 6 21345 4 9 2 1854 1739 76 4203 1 16008 1 1 0 6200 910 77 4214 6 29248 3 5 0 3175 1608 78 4233 2 36423 4 9 2 2592 12 79 4268 9 18359 2 4 0 6446 752 80 4276 5 31114 2 3 0 5861 1005 81 4314 1 16373 1 1 0 6800 650 82 4344 7 20429 3 6 0 3077 2141

## RECS household sampled **household index** 1 **RECS id 97** 

**Household Characteristics** Daily HDD (65) 3.46 Daily CDD(65) 8.94

# Energy Use back to Summary **Compact Refrigerators** 

# ESAF= 0.977**Efficiency Index**  **TEC Lev** **el Source**  **Standard Unit**



# kWh 0 Level 0 1.00 329.44 1 Level 1 1.10 296.50 2 Level 2 1.15 280.03 3 Level 3 1.20 263.55 4 Level 4 1.25 247.08 5 Level 5 1.30 230.61 6 Level 6 1.35 214.14 7 Level 7 1.40 197.66 8 Level 8 1.45 181.19 9 Level 9 1.50 164.72 10 Level 10 1.59 136.06 random # for cum % 36% Volume picked from distribution **3.5** 

# Adj. Volume **3.57**

cum. % size Cu.Ft 0% 1.5 24% 2.5 35% 3.5 71% 4.5 87% 5.5 100% 6.5 100% 7.5 100% 8.5 100% 9.5 100% 10.5 Source: CEC Database

# 0.981517

# Rebuttable PBP back to Summary

Base Case **Total Installed TEC**  **Level Efficiency** 

**Level Source Efficiency**  **Price kWh**  0 Level 0 1.00 $141.98 307.6 1 Level 1 1.10 $147.77 276.8 2 Level 2 1.15 $152.17 261.4 3 Level 3 1.20 $158.44 246.1 4 Level 4 1.25 $170.95 230.7 5 Level 5 1.30 $180.90 215.3 6 Level 6 1.35 $208.86 199.9 7 Level 7 1.40 $217.01 184.5 8 Level 8 1.45 $251.10 169.2 9 Level 9 1.50 $269.67 153.8 10 Level 10 1.59 $336.55 127.0

Non HFC **Total Installed TEC**  **Level Efficiency** 

**Level Source Efficiency**  **Price kWh**  0 Level 0 1.00 $141.98 307.6 1 Level 1 1.10 $148.79 276.8 2 Level 2 1.15 $154.49 261.4 3 Level 3 1.20 $165.21 246.1 4 Level 4 1.25 $175.30 230.7 5 Level 5 1.30 $196.79 215.3 6 Level 6 1.35 $211.15 199.9 7 Level 7 1.40 $233.73 184.5 8 Level 8 1.45 $258.07 169.2 9 Level 9 1.50 $285.21 153.8 10 Level 10 1.57 $333.79 133.4

# 1st Year**Rebuttable**

**Energy Cost**  **PBP** 33.1 $29.8 $ 1.7

28.2 $ 2.1

26.5 $ 2.5

24.8 $ 3.5

23.2 $ 3.9

21.5 $ 5.8

19.9 $ 5.7

18.2 $ 7.3

16.6 $ 7.7

13.7 $ 10.0

**1st Year Rebuttable**  **Energy Cost**  **PBP** 33.1 $29.8 $ 2.1

28.2 $ 2.5

26.5 $ 3.5

24.8 $ 4.0

23.2 $ 5.5

21.5 $ 6.0

19.9 $ 6.9

18.2 $ 7.8

16.6 $ 8.6

14.4 $ 10.2

# Energy Prices back to Summary

**Export Parameters Scale 2007 Prices in 2008$**  **To LCC Summary :**  **2007 Residential Energy Prices**  2007 Elec Price $0.111 $/kWh Div. & Elec Lrg State 2009$ / kWh 1 $0.162 **Import Parameters** 2 $0.127 **From Distribution of Household/Businesses:** 3 $0.102 Div & Lrg State 2 4 $0.088 5 $0.098 6 $0.087 **CPI's used to scale $ to 2008$** 7 $0.093 year CPI 8 $0.097 2005 195.3 9 $0.099 2006 201.6 10 $0.178 2007 207.3 11 $0.150 2008 215.3 12 $0.128 2009 214.5 13 $0.116 U.S. Avg $0.115

**2007 Commercial Energy Prices**  Div. & Elec Lrg State 2009$ / kWh 1 $0.153 2 $0.111 3 $0.091 4 $0.075 5 $0.085 6 $0.086 7 $0.085 8 $0.083 9 $0.094 10 $0.168 11 $0.136 12 $0.118 13 $0.101 U.S. Avg $0.106

# RESIDENTIAL 2007 priceSource: EIA

Div. & Elec Lrg State 2006$ / kWh 1 $0.152 2 $0.119 3 $0.096 4 $0.082 5 $0.092 6 $0.081 7 $0.087 8 $0.091 9 $0.093 10 $0.167 11 $0.141 12 $0.120 13 $0.109 U.S. Avg $0.108

COMMERCIAL 2007 PriceSource: EIA Div. & Comm. Elec Lrg State 2007$/kWh 1 $0.148 2 $0.107 3 $0.088 4 $0.072 5 $0.082 6 $0.083 7 $0.082 8 $0.081 9 $0.091 10 $0.163 11 $0.131 12 $0.115 13 $0.098 U.S. Avg $0.102Energy Price Trends back to Summary

**Import Parameters AEO 2010 Residential Energy Price Projection for Electricity**  **AEO 2010 Commercial Energy Price Projection for Electricity from: LCC Summary (GUI)**  **1 Reference Case**  **1 Reference Case**  Electricity Price Projection Index1 **2 High Growth Scenario**  **2 High Growth Scenario**  Negociation material

i.e.AEO 2010 Reference **3 Low Growth Scenario**  **3 Low Growth Scenario**  Alternative CO2 Prices RESAlternative CO2 Prices COM **Export Parameters Electricity Price**  **Electricity Price Electricity Price**  **Electricity Price to: LCC Summary**  Trend relative to 2007 **(in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in cent / kWh)**  **(in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in cent / kWh)**  **(in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu)**  **Carbon Cap price factor**

AEO 2010 Reference

AEO 2010 Reference **Ref. High**  **Low Ref.**  **High Low**  **Ref. High**  **Low Ref.**  **High Low**  **Ref. High**  **Low Ref.**  **High Low**  Com Res ElecCom Elec **2007** 31.8231.8231.82 10.86 10.86 10.86 **2007** 28.81 28.81 28.81 9.83 9.83 9.83 **2007** 31.8231.8231.82 28.81 28.81 28.81 1 2007 1.00 1.00 **2008** 33.2933.31 33.29 11.36 11.37 11.36 **2008** 30.47 30.49 30.46 10.40 10.41 10.40 **2008** 33.31 33.3333.31 30.49 30.51 30.48 1.001 2008 1.05 1.06 **2009** 32.3332.4432.27 11.04 11.07 11.01 **2009** 28.94 29.12 28.80 9.88 9.94 9.83 **2009** 32.3932.5032.33 28.99 29.17 28.85 1.002 2009 1.02 1.00 **2010** 30.9431.1330.70 10.56 10.62 10.48 **2010** 27.37 27.60 27.08 9.34 9.42 9.24 **2010** 30.9231.11 30.68 27.35 27.59 27.07 0.999 2010 0.97 0.95 **2011** 29.9030.2429.44 10.21 10.32 10.05 **2011** 25.72 26.12 25.19 8.78 8.92 8.60 **2011** 29.8230.1529.35 25.65 26.05 25.12 0.997 2011 0.94 0.89 **2012** 31.0831.61 30.40 10.61 10.79 10.38 **2012** 26.72 27.34 25.92 9.12 9.33 8.85 **2012** 31.4431.9730.75 27.02 27.66 26.21 1.011 2012 0.98 0.93 **2013** 31.4732.11 30.68 10.74 10.96 10.47 **2013** 26.81 27.58 25.86 9.15 9.41 8.82 **2013** 32.1432.7931.33 27.38 28.16 26.40 1.021 2013 0.99 0.93 **2014** 31.4932.3630.52 10.75 11.05 10.42 **2014** 26.55 27.55 25.36 9.06 9.40 8.66 **2014** 32.1833.0831.20 27.13 28.16 25.92 1.022 2014 0.99 0.92 **2015** 31.4332.4430.47 10.73 11.07 10.40 **2015** 26.55 27.70 25.33 9.06 9.45 8.65 **2015** 32.5233.5731.54 27.47 28.66 26.21 1.035 2015 0.99 0.92 **2016** 31.6432.8230.72 10.80 11.20 10.48 **2016** 26.81 28.15 25.61 9.15 9.61 8.74 **2016** 32.9734.1932.00 27.93 29.32 26.68 1.042 2016 0.99 0.93 **2017** 31.8033.11 30.70 10.85 11.30 10.48 **2017** 26.97 28.44 25.61 9.21 9.71 8.74 **2017** 33.3534.7232.19 28.29 29.82 26.86 1.049 2017 1.00 0.94 **2018** 31.7833.2830.49 10.85 11.36 10.41 **2018** 26.98 28.60 25.46 9.21 9.76 8.69 **2018** 33.5635.1532.20 28.50 30.21 26.89 1.056 2018 1.00 0.94 **2019** 31.6833.2930.30 10.81 11.36 10.34 **2019** 26.93 28.62 25.31 9.19 9.77 8.64 **2019** 33.5835.2832.12 28.54 30.34 26.83 1.060 2019 1.00 0.93 **2020** 31.8433.4030.39 10.87 11.40 10.37 **2020** 27.12 28.73 25.44 9.26 9.81 8.68 **2020** 33.9735.6232.42 28.93 30.65 27.14 1.067 2020 1.00 0.94 **2021** 32.01 33.5530.62 10.92 11.45 10.45 **2021** 27.31 28.89 25.71 9.32 9.86 8.77 **2021** 34.4236.0732.92 29.37 31.06 27.64 1.075 2021 1.01 0.95 **2022** 32.0833.6030.70 10.95 11.47 10.48 **2022** 27.42 29.00 25.87 9.36 9.90 8.83 **2022** 34.71 36.3633.22 29.67 31.38 27.99 1.082 2022 1.01 0.95 **2023** 32.2033.9030.63 10.99 11.57 10.46 **2023** 27.62 29.41 25.91 9.43 10.04 8.84 **2023** 34.8536.7033.16 29.90 31.83 28.04 1.082 2023 1.01 0.96 **2024** 32.2834.1230.45 11.02 11.65 10.39 **2024** 27.77 29.67 25.79 9.48 10.13 8.80 **2024** 35.0737.0733.08 30.17 32.23 28.02 1.086 2024 1.01 0.96 **2025** 32.2634.0530.34 11.01 11.62 10.36 **2025** 27.72 29.56 25.68 9.46 10.09 8.76 **2025** 35.21 37.1733.12 30.26 32.27 28.03 1.092 2025 1.01 0.96 **2026** 32.4034.1230.37 11.06 11.64 10.36 **2026** 27.87 29.62 25.73 9.51 10.11 8.78 **2026** 35.8637.7733.61 30.85 32.78 28.48 1.107 2026 1.02 0.97 **2027** 32.5734.2230.40 11.12 11.68 10.38 **2027** 28.05 29.73 25.80 9.57 10.15 8.81 **2027** 36.7638.6234.31 31.66 33.56 29.12 1.129 2027 1.02 0.97 **2028** 32.7334.31 30.53 11.17 11.71 10.42 **2028** 28.25 29.86 26.00 9.64 10.19 8.88 **2028** 37.71 39.5435.18 32.55 34.40 29.96 1.152 2028 1.03 0.98 **2029** 33.1334.6330.92 11.31 11.82 10.55 **2029** 28.67 30.16 26.43 9.78 10.29 9.02 **2029** 38.8640.61 36.26 33.62 35.37 30.99 1.173 2029 1.04 0.99 **2030** 33.4634.8831.29 11.42 11.90 10.68 **2030** 28.99 30.42 26.81 9.89 10.38 9.15 **2030** 39.7841.4737.20 34.47 36.17 31.88 1.189 2030 1.05 1.01 **2031** $33.8135.0331.38 11.47 11.96 10.71 **2031** 29.37 30.60 26.96 9.96 10.44 9.20 **2031** $40.6142.0837.69 35.28 36.75 32.38 1.201 2031 1.06 1.02 **2032** 34.11 35.1931.47 11.53 12.01 10.74 **2032** 29.73 30.77 27.10 10.03 10.50 9.25 **2032** 41.3942.6938.19 36.07 37.34 32.88 1.213 2032 1.07 1.03 **2033** 34.2635.3431.57 11.59 12.06 10.77 **2033** 29.90 30.95 27.24 10.09 10.56 9.30 **2033** 41.9843.31 38.69 36.64 37.93 33.39 1.226 2033 1.08 1.04 **2034** 34.4935.4931.66 11.65 12.11 10.81 **2034** 30.15 31.13 27.38 10.16 10.62 9.35 **2034** 42.7043.9339.19 37.32 38.53 33.90 1.238 2034 1.08 1.05 **2035** 34.71 35.6531.75 11.70 12.17 10.84 **2035** 30.37 31.30 27.53 10.23 10.68 9.40 **2035** 43.3944.5639.69 37.97 39.13 34.41 1.250 2035 1.09 1.05 **2036** 34.9735.8031.84 11.76 12.22 10.87 **2036** 30.65 31.48 27.67 10.30 10.75 9.45 **2036** 44.3045.2440.24 38.69 39.74 34.93 1.262 2036 1.10 1.06 **2037** 35.1435.9631.94 11.82 12.27 10.90 **2037** 30.86 31.66 27.82 10.37 10.81 9.49 **2037** 45.01 45.9440.80 39.33 40.36 35.46 1.274 2037 1.10 1.07 **2038** 35.31 36.1232.03 11.88 12.33 10.93 **2038** 31.06 31.85 27.97 10.43 10.87 9.54 **2038** 45.7346.6441.36 39.97 40.98 35.98 1.287 2038 1.11 1.08 **2039** 35.4936.2732.12 11.94 12.38 10.96 **2039** 31.27 32.03 28.11 10.50 10.93 9.60 **2039** 46.4547.3541.94 40.62 41.60 36.52 1.299 2039 1.12 1.09 **2040** 35.6636.4332.22 12.00 12.43 11.00 **2040** 31.48 32.21 28.26 10.57 10.99 9.65 **2040** 47.1948.0842.52 41.27 42.24 37.06 1.311 2040 1.12 1.09 **2041** 35.8436.5932.31 12.06 12.49 11.03 **2041** 31.69 32.40 28.41 10.65 11.06 9.70 **2041** 47.9448.8243.11 41.94 42.87 37.60 1.323 2041 1.13 1.10 **2042** 36.0236.7532.41 12.12 12.54 11.06 **2042** 31.90 32.58 28.56 10.72 11.12 9.75 **2042** 48.71 49.5643.71 42.61 43.52 38.15 1.336 2042 1.13 1.11 **2043** 36.1936.91 32.50 12.17 12.60 11.09 **2043** 32.11 32.77 28.71 10.79 11.18 9.80 **2043** 49.4850.3244.31 43.28 44.17 38.70 1.348 2043 1.14 1.11 **2044** 36.3737.0732.60 12.24 12.65 11.13 **2044** 32.33 32.96 28.86 10.86 11.25 9.85 **2044** 50.2751.0944.93 43.97 44.83 39.26 1.360 2044 1.14 1.12 **2045** 36.5537.2332.69 12.30 12.71 11.16 **2045** 32.54 33.15 29.01 10.93 11.31 9.90 **2045** 51.0751.8845.55 44.66 45.49 39.82 1.372 2045 1.15 1.13 **2046** 36.7337.3932.79 12.36 12.76 11.19 **2046** 32.76 33.34 29.17 11.01 11.38 9.96 **2046** 51.8852.6746.18 45.36 46.16 40.38 1.385 2046 1.15 1.14 **2047** 36.9237.5632.88 12.42 12.82 11.22 **2047** 32.98 33.53 29.32 11.08 11.44 10.01 **2047** 52.71 53.4846.82 46.06 46.83 40.96 1.397 2047 1.16 1.14 **2048** 37.1037.7232.98 12.48 12.87 11.26 **2048** 33.20 33.72 29.48 11.15 11.51 10.06 **2048** 53.5554.3047.47 46.78 47.51 41.53 1.409 2048 1.17 1.15 **2049** 37.2837.8933.08 12.54 12.93 11.29 **2049** 33.42 33.91 29.63 11.23 11.57 10.11 **2049** 54.4055.1348.13 47.50 48.20 42.11 1.421 2049 1.17 1.16 **2050** 37.4738.0533.17 12.60 12.99 11.32 **2050** 33.64 34.11 29.79 11.30 11.64 10.17 **2050** 55.2655.9748.80 48.23 48.89 42.70 1.433 2050 1.18 1.17 **2051** 37.6538.2233.27 12.67 13.04 11.36 **2051** 33.87 34.30 29.95 11.38 11.71 10.22 **2051** 56.1456.8349.48 48.96 49.59 43.29 1.446 2051 1.18 1.18 **2052** 37.8438.3833.37 12.73 13.10 11.39 **2052** 34.09 34.50 30.10 11.45 11.78 10.27 **2052** 57.0457.7050.16 49.71 50.30 43.89 1.458 2052 1.19 1.18 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 **Residential Electricity Price (AEO2010)**

Reference High
Low

0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

**Electricity Price Trends**

AEO 2010 Reference Res Elec

AEO 2010 Reference Com Elec

25 26 27 28 29 30 31

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 **Commercial Electricity Price (AEO2010)**

Reference High
Low**Discount Rate**

**Distribution of Real Interest Rates REAL Gains and Losses for Various Assets** 

**Export Parameters 1st Mortgage**  **Home Equity Credit Card**  **Installment Loans Other Residence**  **Other LOC Savings** **CD - 6mo. Treasury** **Corp AAA Stocks**  **Mutual to: LCC Summary**  rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt **Year Accounts**  **CDs Sav Bonds**  **Bonds S&P 500**  **Fund**

Discount Rate 7.1% 0.5% 0.059 0.4% 0.089 0.0% 0.055 0.0% 0.345 0.2% 0.129 0.1% 0.043 1977 -0.6% 1.2% 1.4% -12.7% -8.0% **DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) FOR REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY** 1.6% 0.192 1.5% 0.084 1.4% 0.019 1.4% 0.020 1.5% 0.061 1.4% 0.033 1978 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% -1.0% -0.4%

**Finance Method Share**  **Mean Min**  **Max Sampled**  2.5% 0.280 2.6% 0.154 2.5% 0.019 2.4% 0.040 2.5% 0.084 2.5% 0.014 1979 0.1% -1.9% -1.5% 6.4% 3.7% 1Home Equity Loans (after tax) 3.7% 3.0% 0.4%42.5% 3.5% 3.5% 0.244 3.5% 0.257 3.5% 0.033 3.4% 0.053 3.5% 0.153 3.5% 0.044 1980 -0.5% -2.0% -1.4% 16.1% 10.1% 2Credit card 2.1% 3.9% 0.0%36.9%10.6% 4.4% 0.147 4.5% 0.180 4.5% 0.044 4.5% 0.057 4.5% 0.149 4.5% 0.065 1981 5.0% 2.8% 3.5% -13.6% -8.1% 3Other Installment Loans 1.6% 10.7% 0.0%93.5% 3.4% 5.4% 0.043 5.4% 0.112 5.6% 0.061 5.6% 0.067 5.5% 0.177 5.5% 0.124 1982 6.0% 6.2% 7.2% 13.4% 11.0% 4Other Residence Loans 5.3% 6.0% 0.2%17.9%11.6% 6.4% 0.020 6.4% 0.047 6.7% 0.070 6.7% 0.075 6.5% 0.127 6.7% 0.094 1983 5.9% 7.7% 8.6% 18.5% 14.9% 5Other Line of Credit 0.5% 4.4% 0.1%54.1%17.3% 7.4% 0.007 7.5% 0.036 7.5% 0.040 7.5% 0.033 7.5% 0.059 7.6% 0.052 1984 5.5% 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 1.8% 3.8% 6Checking Accounts 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.004 8.5% 0.019 8.7% 0.060 8.6% 0.040 8.6% 0.025 8.7% 0.090 1985 5.4% 4.5% 7.0% 7.5% 26.7% 20.1% 7Savings and Money Market 15.3% 2.3% 0.0% 4.0% 3.2% 9.5% 0.002 9.5% 0.009 9.6% 0.055 9.5% 0.037 9.4% 0.014 9.5% 0.089 1986 6.0% 4.6% 5.8% 7.0% 16.3% 12.8% 8CD (6 month) 8.6% 2.2%-1.1% 6.1% 1.6% 10.5% 0.001 10.6%0.006 10.6%0.052 10.6%0.029 10.6%0.00410.5% 0.068 1987 3.3% 3.2% 4.8% 5.5% 2.1% 3.0% 9Savings Bonds (Treasury) 1.4% 3.4%-2.0% 7.8% 4.3% 11.6% 0.001 11.8%0.002 11.5%0.058 11.5%0.019 11.6%0.00511.6% 0.063 1988 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% 5.4% 11.9% 9.5% 10Bonds (Corporate AAA) 9.5% 4.1%-1.5% 8.6% 0.1% 12.4% 0.001 12.7%0.003 12.6%0.049 12.5%0.027 12.6%0.00412.5% 0.065 1989 3.0% 4.1% 3.5% 4.2% 25.4% 18.1% 11Stocks (S&P 500) 29.0% 7.7%-38.9%33.4% 7.9% 13.5% 0.000 13.7%0.000 13.6%0.044 13.5%0.019 14.7%0.00513.5% 0.019 1990 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% -8.0% -4.3% 12Mutual Funds (stock/bond) 18.6% 6.2%-25.8%23.6% 2.9% 14.4% 0.000 14.7%0.002 14.7%0.087 14.7%0.037 15.7%0.00114.7% 0.040 1991 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% 4.4% 25.0% 17.9% Total 100% 5.1% wt.avg. 4.6% 16.7% 0.000 16.7%0.000 15.6%0.074 15.6%0.017 16.6%0.00315.6% 0.018 1992 2.1% 0.7% 4.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 22.9% 0.000 17.5%0.000 16.4%0.055 16.5%0.019 17.9%0.00116.5% 0.027 1993 1.1% 0.3% 3.5% 4.1% 6.8% 5.7% 42.5%0.001 17.6%0.053 17.6%0.019 17.3% 0.011 1994 1.3% 2.3% 4.7% 5.3% -1.2% 0.8% Finance Method # Sampled 12 18.5%0.019 18.5%0.012 18.5% 0.006 1995 2.2% 3.1% 3.9% 4.6% 33.4% 23.6% Real Interest Rate for that method 3% 19.4%0.023 19.4%0.007 19.1% 0.012 1996 2.0% 2.4% 3.6% 4.3% 20.3% 14.7% 20.5%0.012 20.5%0.007 20.2% 0.009 1997 2.7% 3.4% 4.2% 4.9% 28.9% 20.7% 21.4%0.005 21.5%0.005 21.5% 0.007 1998 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.9% 26.4% 18.9% **DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate)** 22.5%0.003 22.3%0.002 22.1% 0.002 1999 2.3% 3.2% 3.6% 4.7% 18.3% 13.4% **Industry Sector Share**  **Mean Min**  **Max Std.Dev.** **sampled** 23.6%0.001 23.4%0.003 23.5% 0.002 2000 1.7% 3.1% 2.5% 4.1% -12.0% -7.2% 1Lodging 29.11% 5.8% 2.4%12.0% 1.3%8.9% 24.6%0.003 24.6%0.004 25.4% 0.004 2001 1.8% 0.8% 2.6% 4.1% -14.3% -8.7% 2Other Commercial 70.89% 6.4% 2.5%15.7% 1.7%7.1% 25.5%0.003 25.3%0.003 54.1% 0.002 2002 1.3% 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% -23.2% -14.2% Total wt.avg. 6.2% wt.avg. 7.6% 26.3%0.002 26.6%0.000 2003 -0.2% -1.1% 2.6% 3.3% 25.6% 17.9% 27.3%0.000 27.8%0.000 2004 -0.7% -0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 7.8% 6.0% Finance Method # Sampled 2 28.4%0.000 28.5%0.000 2005 -0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3% Real Interest Rate for that method **7.1%** 29.3%0.000 29.3%0.001 2006 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 2.3% 12.0% 8.6% 36.9%0.000 34.1%0.000 2007 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%

36.1%0.000 2008 0.2% -0.7% 0.4% 1.7% -38.9% -25.8% 43.6%0.000 2009 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 5.7% 26.4% 19.1% 44.3%0.000 **Av g.**  **2.3% 2.2%**  **3.4% 4.1%**  **7.7% 6.2%**  47.2%0.000 **2 X Avg. 4.5%**  **4.5% 6.7%**  **8.2% 15.3%**  **12.5%** 93.5%0.000 **Min** -0.7% -1.1% -2.0% -1.5% -38.9% -25.8% 3.0%100% 3.9%100%10.7%100% 6.0%100% 4.4%100% 8.8%100% **Max** 6.0% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 33.4% 23.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% **Std. Dev. 1.7%**  **2.1% 2.3%**  **2.3% 16.9%**  **11.5%** 22.9% 42.5% 36.9% 93.5% 17.9% 54.1% Source: Golden West Financial Corporation, Federal Reserve, and Demodaran Online 1.6% 3.5% 10.6% 3.4% 11.6% 17.3% Sources: Estimate using 1989, 1992, 1998, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances

# Lifetime back to Summary

**Export Parameters to: LCC Summary**  Lifetime 3.8years **Weibull Parameters:** Scale 5.75 Shape 1.75 Delay 0 Dist. 3.8

**Graph Values Age**  **% Retiring** **% Surviving**  0.0 0.00% 100.00% 1.0 7.82% 92.18% 2.0 11.78% 80.40% 3.0 13.56% 66.84% 4.0 13.65% 53.19% 5.0 12.53% 40.67% 6.0 10.70% 29.97% 7.0 8.60% 21.37% 8.0 6.56% 14.81% 9.0 4.76% 10.04% 10.0 3.31% 6.73% 11.0 2.20% 4.53% 12.0 1.41% 3.12% 13.0 0.87% 2.25% 14.0 0.52% 1.73% 15.0 0.30% 1.44% 16.0 0.16% 1.27% 17.0 0.09% 1.19% 18.0 0.05% 1.14% 19.0 0.02% 1.12% 20.0 0.01% 1.11% 21.0 0.01% 1.10% 22.0 0.00% 1.10% 23.0 0.00% 1.10% 24.0 0.00% 1.10% 25.0 0.00% 1.10% 26.0 0.00% 1.10% 27.0 0.00% 1.10% 28.0 0.00% 1.10% 29.0 0.00% 1.10% 30.0 0.00% 1.10% 31.0 0.00% 1.10% 32.0 0.00% 1.10% 33.0 0.00% 1.10% 34.0 0.00% 1.10% 35.0 0.00% 1.10% 36.0 0.00% 1.10% 37.0 0.00% 1.10% 38.0 1.10% 0.00% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

0

## 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 

# % Surviving

% Retiring

# Equation for calculating Standards back to Summary

**UEC = c * AV + d** **1990 Standards Jan-1-1993 Standards**  **Product Class**  **c d**  **c** 0 NA 1 Refrigerator & Refrigerator-Freezer with manual defrost 13.5 2 Refrigerator & Refrigerator-Freezer with partial automatic defrost 10.4 3 Top Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 23.5 471 16.0 4 Side Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 27.7 488 11.8 5 Bottom Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 27.7 488 16.5 6 Top Mount Freezer with through-the-door ice 26.4 535 17.6 7 Side Mount Freezer with through-the-door ice 30.9 547 16.3 8 Upright Freezer with manual defrost 10.3 9 Compact Refrig. and Refrig.-Freezer with manual defrost 16.0 623 14.9 10 Chest Freezers 14.8 233 11.0 11 Compact Refrig. and Refrig.-Freezer with manual defrost 13.5 12 Compact Refrigerator and Refrigerator-Freezer with partial automatic defrost 10.4 13 Compact Top-Mount Refrig.-Freezer with Auto Defrost 16.0 14 Compact Refrigerator-side mounted freezer with automatic defrost 11.8 15 Compact Refrigerator-bottom mount Freezer with automatic defrost 16.5 16 Compact Upright Freezer with manual defrost 10.3 17 Compact Upright Freezer with automatic defrost 14.9 18 Compact Chest Freezers 10.3

# Jan-1-1993 Standards**Jul-1-2001 Standards**

**d c**  **d**

299 8.82 248.4 398 8.82 248.4 355 9.80 276.0 501 4.91 507.5 367 4.60 459.0 391 10.20 356.0 527 10.10 406.0 264 7.55 258.3 391 12.43 326.1 160 9.88 143.7 299 10.70 299.0 398 7.00 398.0 355 12.70 355.0 501 7.60 501.0 367 13.10 367.0 264 9.78 250.8 391 11.40 391.0 264 10.45 152.0

# Equation for calculating Adjusted Volume back to Summary

**Adjusted Volume = a * vol + b**

**Product Class**  **a b** 

3 Top Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 1.2205 -1.1049 5 Bottom Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 1.1851 0.0159 7 Side Mount Freezer with through-the-door ice 1.3170 -1.9992 11 Compact Refrig. and Refrig.-Freezer with manual defrost 1.0458 -0.0905 Source: CEC Database

# R**2**



# 0.9691 0.9929 0.9906 0.9822