U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey

Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5076

Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only 

Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano
FRONT COVER

Photograph of Lake Waiau, near the summit of Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, September 26, 2013. At this time the lake 

had nearly disappeared, with only a small, 10-meter-wide pool (green area) remaining at the bottom of the former 

lakebed. (U.S. Geological Survey photograph by Rebecca Rossi.)
Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes 

at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake 

Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

By Matthew R. Patrick and James Kauahikaua

Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5076

U.S. Department of the Interior

U.S. Geological Survey
U.S. Department of the Interior

SALLY JEWELL, Secretary

U.S. Geological Survey

Suzette M. Kimball, Director

U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2015

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Suggested citation:

Patrick, M.R., and Kauahikaua, J., 2015, Satellite monitoring of dramatic changes at Hawai‘i’s only alpine lake—Lake 

Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5076, 16 p., http://dx.doi.

org/10.3133/sir20155076.

ISSN 2328-0328 (online)
 iii

Figures

1. High-resolution satellite image of summit region of Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i....................2

2. Satellite images of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, before and after the reduction in lake size..............................................................................................................................3

3. Satellite images during 2002–2014 showing changes in the size of Lake Waiau on Mauna 

Kea volcano, Hawai‘i....................................................................................................................8

4. Graph of the measured surface area of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, 

2000–2014 .......................................................................................................................................9

5. Graph of the surface area of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, 1885–2014............9

6. Photographs of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, on September 26, 2013 ...........10

7. Graph of precipitation data for Hale Pohaku weather station Hawai‘i .......................................11

8. Graph comparing the surface area of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i ..............12

9. Graph of drought data for the State of Hawaii from the National Drought Mitigation Center 

(2014).............................................................................................................................................12

Table

1. Measurements of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i. .................................................6

Contents

Abstract...........................................................................................................................................................1

Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1

Background.....................................................................................................................................................1

Early Observations................................................................................................................................1

Geologic Setting....................................................................................................................................3

Recent Studies ......................................................................................................................................3

Cultural Significance............................................................................................................................4

Methodology...................................................................................................................................................4

Satellite Imagery and Aerial Photographs .......................................................................................4

Historical Photographs ........................................................................................................................5

Weather Data ........................................................................................................................................5

Field Visits ..............................................................................................................................................5

Results .............................................................................................................................................................5

Lake Surface Area Through Time.......................................................................................................5

Field Visits ..............................................................................................................................................7

Precipitation and Drought Data........................................................................................................11

Discussion.....................................................................................................................................................13

Summary of Observations .................................................................................................................13

Why Did Lake Waiau Nearly Disappear?........................................................................................13

Conclusions...................................................................................................................................................14

Acknowledgments.......................................................................................................................................14

References....................................................................................................................................................14

Abstract

Lake Waiau is a small, typically 100-meter-long lake, 

located near the summit of Mauna Kea volcano, on the Island 

of Hawaiʻi. It is Hawaiʻi’s only alpine lake and is considered 

sacred in Hawaiian cultural tradition. Over the past few years, 

the lake has diminished in size, and, by October 2013, surface 

water had almost completely disappeared from the lake. In this 

study, we use high-resolution satellite images and aerial photographs to document recent changes at the lake. Based on our 

reconstructions covering the past 200 years, the historical lake 

surface area has typically ranged from 5,000 to 7,000 square 

meters, but in 2010 a dramatic plunge in lake area ensued. 

The lake area rebounded significantly in early 2014, following heavy winter storms. This near disappearance of the lake, 

judging from analysis of visitor photographs and field reports, 

appears to be highly unusual, if not unprecedented, in the historical record. The unusually low water levels in the lake are 

consistent with a recent severe drought in Hawaiʻi. 

Introduction

Lake Waiau is a small body of water situated just below 

the summit of Mauna Kea volcano on the Island of Hawaiʻi 

(fig. 1). It is one of the highest lakes in the United States—

at an elevation of 3,970 m—and is the only alpine lake in 

Hawaiʻi. The lake is sacred in Hawaiian tradition, as the summit of Mauna Kea is considered the “piko,” or umbilical cord, 

connecting the Earth to the heavens (Maly and Maly, 2005).

The lake rests in the crater of Puʻuwaiau, one of the 

many cinder cones around the summit region, and is bound 

on its north edge by the steep margin of a lava flow from 

Puʻuhaukea. The island’s water table is well below the level of 

the lake, which is a water body perched on a fine-grained sediment substrate (Woodcock, 1980). The lake is fed from precipitation, the majority of which originates from winter storms 

that bring sporadic rain and snow to these high elevations, 

falling in the Puʻuwaiau crater catchment basin (Ehlmann and 

others, 2005). 

Before the recent changes we document here, Lake Waiau 

was triangular in shape, with the long axis (north-south) about 

100 meters (m) (fig. 2A). Water level in the lake commonly 

fluctuated, depending on precipitation (Woodcock, 1980; Laws 

and Woodcock, 1981), and was approximately 3 m in depth at 

Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Lake Waiau 

on Mauna Kea Volcano—Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake 

By Matthew R. Patrick and James Kauahikaua

the deepest point. At maximum water level, lake water flowed 

into a small spillway gully on the western shore. 

Recent field reports note a remarkable shrinking of 

the lake over the past few years, to sizes that are unusual in 

modern memory (fig. 2B; Patrick and Delparte, 2014; Delparte 

and others, 2014). For this study, we collected satellite images 

and aerial photographs of the lake to document recent changes 

and create a detailed time series of lake size. An assessment of 

climatic processes underlying recent changes in lake area was 

conducted using monthly precipitation data and drought conditions as estimated by the National Drought Monitor (National 

Drought Mitigation Center, 2014), which integrates climatic 

and hydrologic data along with reported field conditions in 

making drought declarations. 

Background

The paragraphs below discuss early observations of Lake 

Waiau, its geologic setting, and recent scientific studies. The 

lake’s cultural significance is also discussed.

Early Observations

Archaeological sites near Lake Waiau indicate that 

Hawaiians had been active in the area for centuries (Mills 

and others, 2008) before the arrival of the first Western visitors, who started going to the summit region of Mauna Kea 

in the early 1800s. The first recorded ascent of Mauna Kea 

by a Westerner was in 1823 by Missionary Joseph Goodrich 

(Goodrich, 1826), but he apparently did not visit the lake 

on this ascent (based on comments in Goodrich, 1834). Two 

other missionaries (Dr. Abraham Blatchley and Samuel 

Ruggles) climbed to the summit in 1824 and appear to have 

been guided by Goodrich (Maly and Maly, 2005). If Goodrich 

was the guide, this group did not visit Lake Waiau, based on 

later comments by Goodrich (Goodrich, 1834). In 1825 an 

ascent, guided by Goodrich, was made by members of Captain 

George Anson Byron’s (7th Lord Byron) crew on the HMS 

Blonde, but no mention is made of the lake (Wilson, 1922). 

Missionary Hiram Bingham ascended the mountain with 

King Kamehameha III in 1830 and remarked, “We came to 

. . . a pond of water partly covered with ice,” which he also 

described as a “cold mountain lake” (Bingham, 1847). We 

assume this is a reference to Lake Waiau. Bingham’s report 
2 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano 19.81 19.82 19.83

-155.49 -155.48 -155.47 -155.46

Kohala

Mauna

Kea

Hualalai

Kīlauea

Mauna

Loa

Lake Waiau

Pu‘uwaiau

summit

Mauna Kea

access road

Pu‘uhaukea

Pu‘upoli‘ahu

Pu‘uhau‘oki

Pu‘ulilinoe

Pu‘uwekiu

telescopes

Island of Hawai‘i

0 20 KILOMETERS

area of map

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KILOMETER

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Figure 1. High-resolution satellite image of summit region of Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i. GeoEye 1 image, bands 3-2-1 (red-greenblue, RGB) from November 23, 2009. Image shows the position of Lake Waiau in relation to other prominent summit cinder cones and the 

summit access road. The true summit is atop Pu‘uwekiu, near several astronomical telescopes. Inset shows a shaded-relief map of the 

Island of Hawai‘i. Dotted gray lines mark the surface boundaries between the five volcanoes that form the island. The small white box at 

the summit of Mauna Kea shows the footprint of the main image.

is the first written record of Lake Waiau that we could find, 

although earlier instances may exist.

During a subsequent ascent by Goodrich, in 1832, he 

“found the pond or lake of water, of which I had frequently 

been informed” (Goodrich, 1834), suggesting numerous previous (but undocumented) visits to Lake Waiau. He estimated 

the lake to be 25 rods (126 m) in diameter. Members of the 

United States Exploring Expedition ascended to the summit in 

1841 and, from previous reports, were aware of the existence 

of the lake but explicitly state that they did not visit it (Wilkes, 

1844). A travel account published in the Pacific Commercial 

Advertiser in 1860 describes the lake as being “dried up” 

(Pacific Commercial Advertiser, 1860). There are two possible 

interpretations of this—(1) the lake was indeed dry or (2) the 

travelers did not visit the correct spot. If the lake was indeed 

dry, it is the only historical record in 200 years that we can 

find noting the lake’s disappearance. 

Clarence E. Dutton, the first geologist to visit Mauna 

Kea, does not mention Lake Waiau (Dutton, 1883). E.D. 

Baldwin visited the lake in August 1889 and noted that the 

lake was 200 ft long by 150 ft wide (Baldwin, 1889). Brigham 

(1909) shows an 1889 photograph of the lake with an area and 

water level appearing similar to that of most recent (pre-2010) 

images. The Preston and Alexander expedition to Mauna Kea 

in June 1892 noted that the lake was an acre and three quarters 

(that is, roughly 7,100 square meters, m2) in extent (Alexander, 1892). Charles H. Hitchcock visited in 1886 and again in 

July 1905, and his mention of the lake being “125 feet long” 

appears to originate from the latter visit (Hitchcock, 1911). 

A 1913 article in the Honolulu Star-Bulletin describes 

a visit by local hunters who seem to have been the first to 

measure the lake depth (Honolulu Star Bulletin, 1913). The 

article states that Lake Waiau was commonly said to be “bottomless.” Using an iron weight and a system of lines strung 
Background 3

across the lake, the hunters determined a maximum depth of 

8 feet and 2 inches (relatively close to the maximum depth of 

about 3 m recorded in modern studies; Woodcock and others, 1980). They also measured the maximum and minimum 

dimensions of the lake as being 322×290 feet (ft) (98×88 m). 

Bryan (1915) describes the lake as being “forty feet deep and 

several acres in extent” (this depth estimate cannot be accurate, based on recent studies noted below). Bryan (1939) stated 

that an increasing number of visitors had been making trips 

to the lake, owing to the new trail constructed by the Civilian 

Conservation Corps a few years earlier. A photograph in Bryan 

(1939) also appears to show the lake near its maximum water 

level.

Geologic Setting

Macdonald (1945) and Stearns and Macdonald (1946) 

established Mauna Kea’s geologic framework, refined later 

by Wolfe and others (1997). The tholeiitic shield-building 

stage ended 200–250 thousand years ago (kiloannum, ka), 

followed by post-shield Hāmākua Volcanics and Laupāhoehoe 

Volcanics. The most recent volcanism on Mauna Kea occurred 

about 4,600 years before present (B.P.). (Wolfe and others, 

1997; Sherrod and others, 2007).

Early geologists recognized that Mauna Kea had been 

covered by glacial ice (Daly, 1910). Further work showed 

that Mauna Kea had undergone several episodes of glaciation (Gregory and Wentworth, 1937; Wentworth and Powers, 

1941). Porter (1979) refined the chronology of glacial activity 

and later presented evidence that some of the pyroclastic cones 

represent eruptions beneath an ice cap that covered the summit 

region (Porter, 1987). Peng and King (1992) dated sediments 

retrieved from a core taken beneath Lake Waiau extending 

back to 15 ka (the carbon-14, 14C, age of 13 ka in Peng and 

King was converted to years B.P. of 14.9±1.3 ka by Pigati and 

others, 2008), suggesting that a topographic basin, and perhaps 

the lake, extended back to that time. These studies do not 

appear to mention any hiatus in the sediment record that might 

indicate sustained periods of lake disappearance.

Recent Studies

Focused studies of the lake and its surroundings began 

in the late 1960s with work by Woodcock and others (1966). 

Sediments extend more than 7 m below the base of the lake, 

incorporating several layers of tephra from nearby pyroclastic 

eruptions and estimated to be as old as the Pleistocene (Woodcock and others, 1966). In late 1969, an area of permafrost, 

extending down at least 10 m, was discovered near the summit 

by Woodcock and others (1970) and was described in detail 

by Woodcock (1974). A detailed study by Woodcock (1980) 

showed that Lake Waiau water levels were sensitive indicators of precipitation, probably due to the frequency of winter 

storms that supply much of the water to the lake. The water is 

perched in the lake due to a layer of fine sediments (Woodcock 

1980; Wolfe and others, 1997). By comparing tritium concentrations in springs at the base of Mauna Kea with those of the 

lake, as well as the groundwater around the lake, Woodcock 

(1980) proposed a conceptual model whereby groundwater 

seepage beneath Puʻuwaiau crater is blocked, perhaps by a 

subsurface layer of permafrost, allowing the crater to act as 

a catchment basin, supplying water to the lake. Woodcock 

(1980) speculated that downward heat flow from the lake 

had melted the permafrost immediately beneath the lake and 

that some water from the lake was lost by seepage that then 

directly fed the springs low on Mauna Kea. Peng and King 

(1992) improved dating of cores of sediment from beneath the 

lake and showed that the sediment extended back as far as 15 

ka (Pigati and others, 2008), suggesting that the lake may have 

existed that long. More recently, a hydrologic model developed by Ehlmann and others (2005) studied the water balance 

of the lake. Winter storms bring the primary input into the lake 

Figure 2. Satellite images of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, before and after the reduction in lake size. The arrow 

marks the waterline in both images. A, An Orbview satellite image from 2005, when the lake was about 100 meters (m) long (north-south 

direction). B, WorldView 2 panchromatic satellite image of the lake from 2013 when it had nearly disappeared and was only about 15 m 

long. The light colored area is dry lakebed, and dark colored spots represent active seeps. See figure 6 for field photos taken around the 

same time as B. Outflow gulley is notch at northwest corner of lake. North at top in both images.

A Before: Oct. 15, 2005 B After: Sep. 6, 2013

waterline

Figure 2

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4 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

and provide a light signature in oxygen and hydrogen isotopes, 

whereas summers show evaporation and loss, enriching the 

lake with heavy isotopes. 

Cultural Significance

Waiau means “swirling water of a current” in the Hawaiian language (Pukui and Elbert, 1986). Beyond its scientific 

importance, the lake and surrounding summit area play significant roles in Hawaiian history and culture. Maly and Maly 

(2005) summarizes the cultural role of the summit region and 

the lake. In Hawaiian tradition, Mauna Kea is the piko, or 

umbilical cord, connecting the Earth to the heavens. Thus, the 

summit area is considered to be one of the most sacred spots 

in the Hawaiian Islands. Lake Waiau’s water is believed to be 

particularly sacred, with healing abilities, and Hawaiians have 

placed the piko of their newborn children in the lake to ensure 

long life. In 1882, as Queen Emma Kaleleonālani was competing for the role of ruling chief in the Hawaiian kingdom, she 

made a pilgrimage to Mauna Kea’s summit and ceremoniously 

bathed in the waters of Lake Waiau (Maly and Maly, 2005). 

The Mauna Kea Comprehensive Management Plan (Office of 

Mauna Kea Management, 2009) and Mauna Kea Master Plan 

(University of Hawaiʻi, 2000) provide further background on 

the significance of the summit region. 

Archaeological studies over the past few decades reinforce the cultural importance of the summit area (see review 

in Mills and others, 2008). McCoy (1999) surveyed dozens 

of archaeological sites, most of which were shrines, around 

Mauna Kea’s summit. Many of these sites are clustered around 

the extensive adze quarries about 2 km south of Lake Waiau. 

These quarries were used over several centuries, and produced 

dense rock for stone tools. Mills and others (2008) state that 

the quarry complex is the largest known prehistoric quarry in 

the Pacific Basin.

Methodology

We used several methods to evaluate changes to the size 

Lake Waiau over the past 200 hundred years. These methods 

as described below included the examination of satellite and 

aerial imagery, historical photographs, weather data, and field 

visits to the lake.

Satellite Imagery and Aerial Photographs

Satellite data and vertical aerial photos of Lake Waiau 

were used to track lake surface area and lake dimensions. 

High-resolution satellite imagery was available back to about 

2000, and included data from the IKONOS, Quickbird, WorldView, GeoEye, and OrbView sensors. We also used several 

Google Earth images of unknown origin, but these are often 

derived from Quickbird images. Image resolution ranged from 

46 centimeters (cm) to 1 m, and we normally used the panchromatic bands, because they had higher resolution than the 

multispectral data. A total of 41 high-resolution images were 

available for the period between 2001 and 2014, providing a 

fairly detailed time series of recent lake changes. 

Of the 41 satellite images, 8 had rational polynomial 

coefficient (RPC) files that enabled orthorectification (that 

is, georectification that removes terrain distortions). We 

orthorectified these images using the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) digital elevation model with Exelis 

ENVI 4.8 (see http://www.exelisvis.com/ProductsServices/

ENVIProducts.aspx). The remaining satellite images were 

then coregistered to one of these orthorectified satellite 

images. This georectification process was aided by using 36 

waypoints, collected around the lake in June 2014, with a 

kinematic Global Positioning System (GPS) system. These 

waypoints were usually large boulders that were visible in the 

images. However, not all of the 36 waypoints were used for 

each image. We performed the georectification with Esri ArcGIS 9.3 (see http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/), typically 

using a spline transformation (which requires a minimum of 

10 corresponding points). 

Aerial photographs were useful for tracking lake changes 

before 2000, but unfortunately these data were much more 

sparse than the high-resolution satellite data. The aerial photos 

include a total of nine images between 1954 and 1995, with 

a large data gap through the 1980s. The aerial photos were 

coregistered with an orthorectified high-resolution satellite 

image (as described above). 

Lake surface area was measured in the images manually in ArcGIS 9.3 using a polygon outline of the margin, and 

dimensions were measured using distances along the major 

north-south and east-west axes. In a few cases, a part of the 

lake margin was ambiguous, but our estimates show that the 

error in area of these ambiguities did not exceed a few percent. 

The largest source of error would be inaccurate georectification. Although the kinematic GPS points have an accuracy of 

several centimeters, and the high-resolution satellite images 

have a pixel size of 50 cm, there was minor subjectivity in 

visually picking corresponding points that, we estimate, could 

produce as much as 2 m of uncertainty. If we assume that 

the georectification could be inaccurate by as much as 2 m, 

the diameter measurements of the lake could have an error 

of as much as 4 m. This 4-m error in diameter would be just 

4 percent when the lake was at its maximum size (about 100 

m wide) but as much as 25 percent when the lake area was 

minimal in late 2013 (when it was about 16 m wide). Taking 

the lake as a simple circle with a radius of 50 m during the 

pre-2010 period, the error in lake area would be up to approximately 8 percent. When the lake size was minimal (less than 

200 m2), this error in area would be more than 50 percent. 

Nevertheless, as will be shown, the changes in lake size were 

sufficiently large that these potential errors do not affect the 

overall conclusions. 
Results 5

Historical Photographs

A handful of historical photographs are available in the 

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO) photograph archive, and these were useful for 

gauging the appearance of Lake Waiau back into the early 

1900s and late 1800s, particularly to judge whether any 

changes had occurred in the past that mimic those we see 

today. To judge water level and lake surface area in these old 

photographs, we used a simple, rough technique of comparing water levels between the old photographs and more recent 

images. If the shoreline level in the old photographs was 

roughly similar to the typical shoreline observed in recent 

(pre-2010) images, the pre-2010 range in surface area (5,000–

7,000 m2) was assigned to that date.

Weather Data

Precipitation data were downloaded from the National 

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National 

Climatic Data Center for the closest continuous weather station to Lake Waiau—at Hale Pohaku (Mauna Kea Visitor Center)—using the U.S. Annual Climatological Summary (http://

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/, most recent data in April 

2014). The Hale Pohaku weather station is at an elevation of 

2,822 m, which is considerably lower than the elevation of 

the lake (3,970 m) but normally above the inversion layer (at 

an altitude of about 2,300±500 m at Hilo; Cao and others, 

2007) that maintains the dry conditions on Mauna Kea’s upper 

slopes. Some precipitation data are available from weather 

stations at the summit astronomical telescopes (courtesy of 

Mauna Kea Weather Center, http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu), 

much closer to the lake, but we could not find any continuous 

precipitation data on this site that included dates after 2010. 

Drought information for Hawaiʻi was downloaded from the 

U.S. Drought Monitor Web site, maintained by the National 

Drought Mitigation Center (http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu).

Field Visits

On September 26, 2013, HVO geologists joined State of 

Hawaii Department of Land and Natural Resources personnel and Hawaiian cultural practitioners for a field visit to 

Lake Waiau to assess its low water level. Visual observations and photographs were taken of the lake, and physical 

measurements were taken with a Laser Technology TruPulse 

360R laser rangefinder. Subsequent field visits were made on 

December 14, 2013, and June 20, 2014. During the latter visit, 

a kinematic GPS unit was used to mark the precise location 

of 36 features visible around the lake in the high-resolution 

satellite images. Approximately 1 minute of data was collected 

at each of the points, providing sub-meter position accuracy. 

These points were used to aid in georegistering the aerial 

images and unregistered satellite images. 

Results

The following presents the results from our studies of 

Lake Waiau. These results include changes in the lake’s surface area over time and results from field visits and the evaluation of precipitation and drought data.

Lake Surface Area Through Time

Figures 3 and 4 show the surface area of Lake Waiau during 2000 to 2014, based almost exclusively on high-resolution 

satellite data (table 1). From 2000 to late 2009, the lake’s 

surface area fluctuated between 5,000 and 7,000 m2. This corresponds with north-south dimensions ranging from approximately 90 to 100 m. Owing to steeper bounds on the north 

and south margins, most of the variation in size was accommodated along the east-west axis of the lake. At times of larger 

surface area, the west margin of the lake would be very close 

to, or at, the spillway gulley adjacent to the lake.

A decrease in the lake’s surface area, below the typical range, began in 2010, bracketed by images on December 

24, 2009, and September 29, 2010 (fig. 3). The former image 

shows the lake area within its usual range (5,000–7,000 m2), 

but the latter image is already below the typical range of variation, suggesting that an unusual shrinking phase had already 

begun by the latter date. From September 2010 to September 

2013, the reduction in lake surface area followed a roughly 

linear trend, dropping ~100 m2 per month. Even during the 

dramatic plunge in lake surface area following 2010, the lake 

did show seasonal variations consistent with previous behavior 

(Ehlmann and others, 2005). Superimposed on the decline are 

several small peaks (early 2011 and early 2012) that correspond with winter months, presumably representing recharge 

due to precipitation from winter storms. 

Aerial photographs, along with a few field reports, show 

the state of the lake between 1935 and 2000 (fig. 5). Consistent with the 2000–2009 trend shown in the satellite data, the 

majority of surface-area measurements are between 5,000 and 

7,000 m2, again suggesting that this is the typical historical 

range for the lake’s area. One outlier is 1978, when surface 

area of the lake plunged to about 4,100 m2, which occurred 

during a drought (Woodcock, 1980).

Historical photographs push the time series back further. 

A photo in Brigham (1909) from 1889 shows the lake at a 

relatively full level, which we assume represents the lake’s 

surface area in the typical pre-2010 range (5,000–7,000 m2). 

Photographs from 1885, 1892, 1914, and 1920 from the HVO 

archive also show the lake at a full level, and we assign the 

same lake area.

The estimates of the size of Lake Waiau that early visitors made are questionable but still useful for general insight. 

The estimate of 25 rods diameter (about 125 m) in 1832 by 

Goodrich (1834) is almost certainly excessive, as the lake 

size is constrained by the topographic bounds and adjacent 
6 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

Table 1. Measurements of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i.

[--, no data]

Date 

North-south

 length,

in meters

East-west

 length,

in meters 

Area, in

 square meters Source

Aug. 1, 1935 -- -- 6,070 Gregory and Wentworth (1937)

Oct. 19, 1954 94 85 5,898 Aerial photo

Mar. 7, 1965 95 90 6,326 Aerial photo

Oct. 9, 1974 99 92 6,557 Aerial photo

Jul. 22, 1975 102 99 7,188 Aerial photo

Dec. 11, 1976 95 86 6,053 Aerial photo

Jan. 1, 1977 98 84 6,118 Aerial photo

Dec. 1, 1977 92 83 5,639 Woodcock (1980)

Oct. 1, 1978 78 69 4,070 Woodcock (1980)

Sep. 23, 1992 101 93 5,841 Aerial photo

Sep. 30, 1992 100 84 5,641 Aerial photo

Sep. 7, 1995 96 86 6,091 Aerial photo

Aug. 1, 2000 -- -- 6,000 Ehlmann and others (2005)

Apr. 27, 2001 95 82 5,532 Google Earth

Jan. 8, 2002 100 101 7,184 Digital orthophoto quadrangle

Dec. 26, 2002 101 92 6,614 Quickbird 2

Sep. 29, 2003 92 82 5,499 Orbview 3

Apr. 3, 2005 96 94 6,695 Ikonos

Apr. 30, 2005 98 93 6,735 Ikonos

Aug. 10, 2005 98 96 6,798 Ikonos

Oct. 15, 2005 99 94 6,592 Orbview 3

Dec. 2, 2005 98 95 6,658 Orbview 3

Sep. 11, 2006 97 96 6,746 Google Earth

Jan. 22, 2008 97 83 5,920 Ikonos

Jan. 25, 2008 97 88 6,072 WorldView 1

Jul. 20, 2008 98 94 6,760 WorldView 1

Sep. 2, 2009 99 97 6,955 WorldView 1

Sep. 12, 2009 98 97 6,857 Quickbird 2

Nov. 23, 2009 97 88 6,132 GeoEye 1

Dec. 24, 2009 97 92 6,193 Quickbird 2

Sep. 29, 2010 85 71 4,175 WorldView 2

Nov. 23, 2010 73 61 3,116 WorldView 1

Dec. 18, 2010 72 59 3,034 WorldView 1

Jan. 14, 2011 73 60 2,951 GeoEye 1

Mar. 18, 2011 80 66 3,646 WorldView 2

Apr. 4, 2011 79 66 3,583 WorldView 2

Sep. 8, 2011 61 48 2,124 WorldView 1

Nov. 30, 2011 55 40 1,595 WorldView 2

Dec. 27, 2011 70 55 2,780 WorldView 2

May. 29, 2012 72 59 3,023 WorldView 1

Jun. 18, 2012 64 51 2,337 WorldView 2
Results 7

Date 

North-south

 length,

in meters

East-west

 length,

in meters 

Area, in

 square meters Source

Aug. 9, 2012 51 39 1,498 WorldView 1

Jan. 9, 2013 40 29 835 Google Earth

Apr. 7, 2013 39 28 773 WorldView 2

May. 15, 2013 36 23 560 WorldView 2

Jun. 3, 2013 33 22 479 WorldView 1

Aug. 31, 2013 19 12 147 WorldView 2

Sep. 6, 2013 16 12 131 WorldView 2

Sep. 26, 2013 14 11 114 Field measurement

Dec. 14, 2013 24 11 213 Field measurement

Jan. 6, 2014 38 29 717 WorldView 2

Feb. 8, 2014 47 42 1,423 WorldView 2

Mar. 1, 2014 52 42 1,557 WorldView 2

Apr. 4, 2014 74 66 3,419 WorldView 2

Table 1. Measurements of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i.—Continued

spillway channel and cannot greatly exceed about 100 m in 

maximum dimension. The estimate of 200 ft (60 m) long by 

Baldwin (1889) is smaller than the recent typical length of 

the lake (90–100 m). Hitchcock (1911) estimated the lake as 

125 ft (40 m) long, which is fairly small. Because these are 

rough estimates, there is no value in analyzing each one, but 

most describe the lake as having a size roughly consistent with 

more reliable values measured after 1930, and none indicate 

the vanishingly small sizes recorded in late 2013. Describing a 

1924 visit, Harold Stearns noted that the lake “never goes dry” 

(Stearns unpublished journal, November 8, 1924, notebook 

6, p. 207), and Bryan (1927) states that “Lake Waiau . . . has 

never been known to run dry”; however, we cannot comment on the accuracy of these anecdotal statements. The 1860 

observation of the lake’s disappearance is possible but not 

certain. Overall, these early reports, combined with the more 

recent data (figs. 3, 4, 5), suggest that the recent near-disappearance of the lake is highly unusual, if not unprecedented, 

in the historical record (which begins in about 1830 for Lake 

Waiau).

Field Visits

Our visit on September 26, 2013, confirmed that the lake 

was vanishingly small and that most of the former area of the 

lake was dry lakebed (fig. 6). The lakebed consisted of three 

zones:

1. Water—In the center of Lake Waiau was the remaining pool of water, which was very small and shallow. 

The water was greenish and did not seem to be more 

than 20 cm deep (based on the surrounding slope). 

Measurements along the two main axes of the water 

body were made with a laser rangefinder. The northsouth length (339° azimuth) was 13.5 m, while the 

east-west length (73° azimuth) was 10.8 m. Assuming 

a simple ellipse, the area is 114 m2. Sticking out of 

the water were a few pipes, which were presumably 

abandoned from previous coring of the lake sediment (Woodcock and others, 1966, or Peng and King, 

1992). 

2. Muddy zone—Surrounding the water was a zone of 

dark-brown ground with many mud cracks, and this 

appeared to be a partially wet, muddy zone. A few 

pipes stuck out of this zone, as well, and there was 

one pipe, about a meter or two long, resting on its 

side on the surface.

3. Dry lakebed—Surrounding the muddy zone, what 

appeared to be a dry lake surface formed most of 

the lakebed. The color of this dry lake area was tan, 

with rocks here and there sticking out of the ground 

or sitting on the surface. At least two tiny seeps, 

where water seeped up from below ground, were in 

the southeastern quadrant of the dry lake area. These 

seeps had small (10 cm wide) pools of stagnant water 

that fed tiny, stagnant channels of water unconnected 

with the lake but which soaked into the ground. The 

seep areas were obvious, because the ground around 

them was dark brown, much like the appearance of 

the muddy zone around the lake. There appeared to 

be at least two other tiny seeps in the southern part of 

the lakebed as well. An abrupt break in slope seemed 

to correspond with the high waterline, and there is a 

line of dark rocks at this level. The overflow spillway at the northwestern corner of the lake represents 

the absolute high watermark of the lake. This spot 

was 3.0 m above the water level (measured by laser 

rangefinder), which means that the maximum depth 

of the lake is also about 3.0 m.
8 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

Jan. 8, 2002 Dec. 26, 2002 Apr. 3, 2005

Jan. 25, 2008 Jul. 6, 2008 Dec. 24, 2009

Sep. 29, 2010 Sep. 8, 2011 May 29, 2012

Aug. 9, 2012 Apr. 7, 2013 Sep. 6, 2013

Figure 3

A B C

D E F

G H I

J K L

0 30 METERS

0 100 FEET

Copyright 2002-13 Digital Globe

NextView License

Figure 3. Satellite images during 2002–2014 showing changes in the size of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i. A–L show 

satellite images at the marked dates. Dramatic shrinking of the lake began in 2010, as bracketed by F and G. North at top.
Results 9

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Lake surface area, in square meters

Year (20xx)

Figure 4

Figure 4. Graph of the measured surface area of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, 2000–2014. Most of these data points 

originate from high-resolution satellite images. The first data point (August 2000) originates from Ehlmann and others (2005), who stated 

a rough estimate of the surface area for that time.

1880 1896 1913 1930 1947 1964 1981 1998 2015

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Lake surface area, in square meters

Figure 5

Year

Figure 5. Graph of the surface area of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, 1885–2014. The first five data points originate from 

historical photographs showing the lake level consistent with recent (pre-2010) observations, which we interpret to represent a surface 

area within the lake’s typical pre-2010 range (5,000–7,000 square meters) as indicated by error bars. Data points after 2000 are shown 

connected with a dotted line, but points before that year are not connected due to sparseness.
10 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

outflow stream

(3.0 meters above water level)

dry lake bed muddy zone

water

tiny seeps

Geologist is standing at spot

1.2 meters above water level

Pu‘upoli‘ahu telescopes A

B

Figure 7

Figure 6. Photographs of Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, on September 26, 2013, when the lake had nearly disappeared. 

A, View of the lakebed, looking north. Geologists are standing on the eastern shoreline for scale (U.S. Geological Survey photograph 

by Rebecca Rossi). B, Close-up view of the remaining lake water, looking south from the northern shoreline (U.S. Geological Survey 

photograph by Matthew Patrick). Geologists on the shoreline for scale. The pipes sticking out of the lakebed presumably represent 

casings from research drilling projects.
Results 11

The visit in December 2013 showed relatively similar 

conditions. The June 2014 field visit occurred after the early 

2014 precipitation increase and lake level rebound. Although 

the lake size was still below the typical pre-2010 area of 

5,000–7,000 m2, the lake appeared roughly similar to its pre2010 state.

Precipitation and Drought Data

Figure 7 shows precipitation data for Hale Pohaku 

(Mauna Kea visitor center) for 1940–2014, from NOAA’s 

U.S. Annual Climatological Summary dataset (http://www.

ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/). The long-term trend in figure 7A

shows that yearly precipitation (up to 2013) on the upper 

slopes of Mauna Kea can be highly variable, ranging from 

less than 20 centimeters per year (cm yr-1) to more than 120 

cm yr-1. The 3-year mean of these values highlights the fact 

that unusually low values have been present since about 2007, 

consistent with the statewide drought that began in 2008, 

and that the 3-year mean reached unprecedented lows for the 

70-year period in 2011. Monthly data from 2000–2014 in 

figure 7B show more detail for recent years. The large spikes 

in precipitation common during 2000–2005 are mostly absent 

after 2007, and after 2008, months of little to no precipitation become more common, again consistent with the recent 

drought. A large spike in early 2014 (when the data end) is 

consistent with several large winter storms that occurred in 

early 2014.

Figure 8 shows the correspondence between precipitation at Hale Pohaku and the surface area of Lake Waiau 

during the decline in lake area from 2010 to 2014. The overall 

declining trend in lake surface area has several distinct peaks 

(early 2011 and early 2012). The early 2011 and 2012 peaks 

appear to correspond to seasonal peaks in precipitation. The 

rebound in lake area in 2014 corresponds in time with a large 

spike in precipitation. This early 2014 precipitation included 

several winter storms that blanketed the summit area in snow. 

This correlation is consistent with the observations by Woodcock (1980), who showed that the lake level was sensitive to 

precipitation.

Data from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows 

the trend in drought conditions for the State of Hawaii since 

2000 (fig. 9) (National Drought Mitigation Center, 2014). 

Elevated and sustained drought conditions began in 2008, with 

extreme drought (category D3) appearing in mid-2008 for 

roughly 30 percent of Hawaiʻi. This intensified in March 2010, 

Total yearly precipitation, 

in centimeters

1940 1946 1952 1958 1964 1970 1976 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

120 Yearly total

Mean of previous 3 years

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Year (20xx)

no data

A

B

Total monthly precipitation, 

in centimeters

Year

Figure 7. Graph of precipitation 

data for Hale Pohaku weather 

station (Mauna Kea Visitor 

Center, 2,822 meters above 

sea level), Hawai‘i. A, Yearly 

precipitation data since 

1940 (blue). The mean of the 

preceding 3 years is shown 

in red. Note the decline in 

the 3-year mean after 2006. 

B, Monthly precipitation 

data since 2000. Low (but not 

unprecedented over this time 

scale) values of precipitation 

were recorded in the first half of 

2010, around the time that Lake 

Waiau began shrinking. Data 

from the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration 

(NOAA) U.S. Annual 

Climatological Summary (http://

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/).
12 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Lake surface area, in square meters

0

10

20

Total monthly precipitation, in centimeters

Lake surface area

Precipitation

Year

Figure 10

Land area under indicated 

drought level, in percent

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

0

20

40

60

80

100

Year

≥D0 (Abnormally dry)

≥D1 (Moderate drought)

≥D2 (Severe drought)

≥D3 (Extreme drought)

D4 (Exceptional drought)

EXPLANATION

Figure 8. Graph comparing the 

surface area of Lake Waiau on 

Mauna Kea volcano, Hawai‘i, and 

precipitation during a decline of 

the lake, 2009–2014. Transient 

increases in surface area, in 

early 2011 and early 2012, are 

superimposed on the overall 

decline. These peaks follow 

seasonal peaks in precipitation. 

A rebound in lake surface 

area accompanies increased 

precipitation in 2014. Also compare 

the lake surface area trend to 

figure 9.

Figure 9. Graph of drought data for the State of Hawaii from the National Drought Mitigation Center (2014). The graph shows the 

percent of the State under a particular intensity of drought according to the U.S. Drought Monitor Classification Scheme (see http://

droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx). Note that elevated and sustained drought conditions began in 2008, with 

drought intensities increasing during 2010. Drought levels abated in 2014, at which time the lake area rebounded (see figs. 4 and 8).
Discussion 13

when category D4 (exceptional drought) conditions appeared 

in parts of Hawaiʻi. These D4 areas were limited to areas on 

the leeward sides of Kohala and Mauna Kea, close to (but not 

necessarily encompassing) Lake Waiau, based on the National 

Drought Mitigation Center maps. Drought levels appear to 

abruptly drop in early 2014, with the disappearance of even 

moderate drought across the State, consistent with the increase 

in precipitation shown in figure 8.

Discussion

In the discussion that follows, we summarize our observations of Lake Waiau. We also discuss three possible reasons 

for the disappearance of the lake.

Summary of Observations

Observations between 1885 and 2010 suggest that Lake 

Waiau’s typical area for this time period is between 5,000 and 

7,000 m2. Beginning in 2010, lake size measurements dropped 

below this typical range, and by late 2013 the lake had nearly 

disappeared. By September 2013, the lake consisted of only 

a small, shallow puddle about 10 m in size. Our review of 

historical records provides just one possible observation of the 

lake being completely dry. Therefore, it appears that the lake’s 

vanishingly small size observed in late 2013 is highly unusual, 

if not unprecedented, in historical times. The first appearance 

of unusually low lake-area measurements, in 2010, seems to 

correspond with an intensification of the recent drought in 

Hawaiʻi, and the rebound in lake area in early 2014 corresponds in time with heavy winter snowstorms. 

Why Did Lake Waiau Nearly Disappear?

There are three possible explanations for the near-disappearance of Lake Waiau:

1. Draining—The lake has existed as a perched water 

body because of an impermeable substrate that traps 

water. Woodcock (1980) and Wolfe and others (1997) 

believed that fine-grained sediment acts as the impermeable layer; however, Woodcock (1980) suggested 

that some amount of seepage must occur through this 

layer to feed the springs at the base of Mauna Kea. 

The shrinking of the lake might be due some kind of 

failure in this impermeable layer in 2010, increasing 

the rate of this seepage. For example, cracking of 

the sediment layers might permit lake water to leak 

downward. If the impermeable substrate is permafrost, then melting of the permafrost would permit 

water to flow downwards. 

2. Catchment loss—Woodcock (1980) explained that the 

lake exists because of some type of impermeable 

layer surrounding the lake, within Puʻuwaiau crater, 

that allows water falling into the crater to flow into 

the lake itself, rather than seeping out at the bottom of the crater. The same study proposed that this 

impermeable layer consists of permafrost. Woodcock 

(1980) states, “Eventual melting of permafrost . . . 

may so increase the rate of water loss from Waiau 

crater as to threaten the continued existence of Lake 

Waiau as a perennial body of water.” Melting of the 

permafrost would allow precipitation to seep through 

the crater and never replenish the lake. In this case, 

the lake’s shrinking would be due to evaporation. 

3. Drought—Drought is the simplest answer to the lake’s 

near-disappearance, because a severe drought began 

in Hawaiʻi around 2008 (National Drought Mitigation 

Center, 2014). In this case, the rate of precipitation 

recharge has been insufficient in recent years to balance the loss from evaporation and seepage from the 

bottom of the lake. Ehlmann and others (2005) state 

that the lake receives most of its water from sporadic 

winter storms, and if drought is the main agent driving the lake’s disappearance, these storms appear to 

have been fewer and (or) milder in recent years. 

On the basis of our observations, the decline in lake 

surface area during 2010–2013 is consistent with the recent 

drought. First, the rate of the lake’s shrinking is consistent 

with evaporative loss alone. The observed rate of lake-level 

drop during the 2010–2013 period was about 2.7 millimeters per day (mm day-1) (given that the lake is as much as 3 

m deep and that it dropped nearly to zero depth in about 3 

years). This level drop rate is consistent with the observed 

rate of lake-level drop (2.1–3.3 mm day-1) during the 1976–78 

drought (Woodcock 1980). It is also consistent with the rates 

of evaporation from a pan of water (4.9 mm day-1) measured 

by Ehlmann and others (2005). Second, the first appearance 

of unusually low lake-area measurements, in 2010, roughly 

corresponds with the intensification of the statewide drought, 

exemplified by the appearance of “exceptional drought” on the 

leeward sides of Mauna Kea in March 2010 (fig. 9). Monthly 

precipitation data (fig. 7B) indicate that there was very little 

precipitation in early 2010, although not at unprecedented 

levels. Third, recent precipitation levels on the upper slopes 

of Mauna Kea seemed to be at unprecedented lows, consistent with the potentially unprecedented nature of the lake’s 

shrinking. Figure 7A shows that the 3-year mean of precipitation over the last several years dropped to the lowest levels 

recorded since at least 1940. Fourth, although it may be tempting to attribute the abrupt onset of the decline shown in figures 

4 and 5 to a drainage process, we note that the decline in lake 

level during drought in 1976–78 shown by Woodcock (1980) 

was also abrupt, and that the study also shows fairly abrupt 

seasonal drops in lake level related to dry summers. Lastly, the 

abrupt rebound in lake area in early 2014 corresponded with 

heavy winter snowstorms, which is convincing evidence that 

the decline in lake area was controlled by precipitation.
14 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

Do the recent changes at Lake Waiau have any relation to 

regional climate change? Giambelluca and others (2008) document a relatively rapid rise in temperatures over the past 30 

years throughout Hawaiʻi, consistent with global trends, with 

stronger warming at higher elevations (although the weather 

stations in their analysis did not include those on Mauna 

Kea). Da Silva (2012) analyzed Mauna Kea’s summit weather 

data from 1982 to 2011 and showed a relatively flat trend in 

temperatures but an overall increase in wind speed. Therefore, 

Da Silva (2012) and Giambelluca and others (2008) provide 

conflicting results on whether there has been a warming trend 

on Mauna Kea’s upper slopes, but both Da Silva (2012) and 

Giambelluca and others (2008) show a recent warming trend 

on the upper slopes of nearby Mauna Loa. If drought was the 

main process responsible for the 2010–2013 shrinking of the 

lake, evaporative loss might have been accelerated by increasing wind speeds documented in Da Silva (2012). The recent 

drought itself might be a manifestation of the overall decline 

in precipitation levels in Hawaiʻi over the past few decades 

documented by Chu and Chen (2005). 

More detailed work on the recent changes could provide 

useful insights. Researchers at Idaho State University are 

using lidar (light detection and ranging) and photogrammetric methods to monitor recent changes (Delparte and others, 

2014), which represent a step beyond the results shown here 

because their team can produce accurate estimates of lake 

volume and depth through time, as opposed to simply lake 

surface area. These volume estimates, along with the threedimensional characterization of lakebed geometry, would be 

essential constraints for quantitative hydrologic modeling of 

the lake, similar to that done by Ehlmann and others (2005). 

This modeling could provide a more informed analysis and 

a better determination of the processes driving the recent 

changes in the lake.

Conclusions

We used satellite images and aerial photos to document 

the size of the lake through time. Our time series shows that 

the lake area first dropped below typical values in 2010, and, 

by late 2013, the lake had nearly disappeared. On the basis 

of historical accounts, we believe that this disappearance is 

highly unusual, if not unprecedented (since 1830). The onset 

of the lake’s shrinking corresponds with an intensification of 

the recent drought in Hawaiʻi, and precipitation levels after 

about 2007 were lower than at any other time since at least 

1940. These observations, and the abrupt 2014 rebound in 

lake area, indicate that the lake disappearance is consistent 

with being caused by the drought. This study demonstrates the 

effectiveness of satellite imagery for monitoring environmental indicators in sensitive alpine regions.

Acknowledgments

HVO librarian Jane Takahashi assisted in gaining access 

to older citations. HVO volunteer Ben Gaddis helped with 

gathering historical photographs. HVO geologist Frank 

Trusdell and volunteer Rebecca Rossi participated in the field 

observations on September 26, 2013, and HVO volunteer 

Sarah Moore, along with HVO interns Greg Javar and Kanani 

Pali, assisted with the June 20, 2014, field visit. We thank 

Donna Delparte (Idaho State University) for discussion on 

the lake. Fritz Klasner (Office of Mauna Kea Management) 

provided a critical reading of the manuscript, which improved 

the paper. We thank Greg Pederson and David Wahl for critical reviews. IKONOS, Quickbird, WorldView, GeoEye, and 

OrbView satellite images collected by DigitalGlobe, Inc.

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Menlo Park Publishing Service Center, California

Manuscript approved for publication May 28, 2015

Edited by James W. Hendley II

Design and layout by Vivian Nguyen
18 Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai‘i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau on Mauna Kea Volcano

Patrick and Kauahikaua—Satellite Monitoring of Dramatic Changes at Hawai`i’s Only Alpine Lake—Lake Waiau—Scientific Investigations Report 2015–5076

ISSN 2328-0328 (online)

http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20155076