Wind Vision:

Updating the DOE 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Report

E. Ian Baring-Gould • National Renewable Energy Laboratory • Golden, Colorado

2014 American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) WIND PROJECT SITING SEMINAR | March 19-20, 2014| New Orleans, LA | NREL/PO-5000-61095

Permitting, Deployment, Siting, and Workforce Efforts

The 20% Wind Energy by 2030 Report

Buffalo Mountain Wind Farm near Oak Ridge TN, the only operating commercial wind farm in the Southeast.

Image by Owen Roberts NREL

The 20% report, published in 2008, was largely 

based on information collected and analyzed in 

2006. Much has changed since then:

• Technology shifts: Cost improvements and 

technology improvements

• Market shifts: Low natural gas prices and 

lower overall electricity demand

• Policy shifts: Production Tax Credit. 

The industry needs a new, clear vision for wind 

power that is shared among stakeholders from the 

U.S. government, industry, academia, and NGO 

communities.

The 20% Wind Energy by 2030 report was developed as part of the Advanced Energy Initiative, which stated: “Areas with 

good wind resources have the potential to supply up to 20% of the electricity consumption of the United States.” The 

industry responded: “Is 20% possible?”

The report addressed key questions:

• Is there a sufficient national wind resource? 

• What are the technology requirements?

• Can industry scale to achieve this goal? 

• Can the grid accommodate 20% wind?

• What would the labor force look like?

• Where would all of this wind go?

• How much would it cost?

At WINDPOWER 2013, the U.S. Department of Energy, in 

partnership with the American Wind Energy Association and 

the Wind Energy Foundation, launched a project to update 

the 20% report with new objectives:

• Document the current status of wind technology and 

the wind industry

• Complete thorough impacts (cost-benefit) analyses of 

wind power to provide objective, peer-review quality 

information to the public and decision-makers

• Provide a roadmap for industry, government, 

academia, and others

• Provide vision and leadership for the U.S. wind power 

community.

Eleven task forces including representatives from 

industry, NGOs, academia, and national laboratories are 

working on document content:

• Wind plant technology

• Manufacturing and logistics

• O&M, project performance, and reliability

• Transmission and integration

• Project Development, Siting, and Permitting

• Scenario modeling

• Market data and analysis

• Offshore wind

• Distributed wind

• Communications

• Roadmap.

Although not universally accepted at the time, the 

20% report answered industry’s basic question: 

“Yes, 20% wind by 2030 is possible!”

The study results also demonstrated that wind 

energy could grow to become a major element of 

the nation’s energy infrastructure.

The Wind Vision

There were significant wind installations between 2008 and 2013; this also

means that more people are developing projects and more people are living

closer to projects.

Expanded regulatory oversight and siting conflicts have greatly

complicated the development process.

Although we have more wind energy information, the proliferation of

wind energy myths has resulted in easily accessible but not

necessarily accurate information available to the public.

Entities interested in reducing the impacts of continued fossil fuel use

in the power sector have formed collaborations to support wind energy

deployment .

The wind workforce remains largely internally developed, but programs

from community college through post graduate are expanding.

Key 

Industry 

Changes 

Since the 

Publication 

of the 20% 

Report

Chapter

Economics: Potential local economic development with examples of

benefits for offshore and land‐based development

Land use: number of square miles of land impacted and breakout of

direct and conditional use

Wildlife: known impacts quantified, including a description of

difficulties determining this based on current knowledge

Aviation and radar: description of the impact of larger and taller

turbines on Federal Aviation Administration and radar systems

Public acceptance: summary of expanded siting considerations as turbines

are implemented

Local 

Impacts 

and 

Benefits of 

Achieving 

the Vision 

Chapter

Develop, mitigate, and disseminate comprehensive information on wildlife

impacts.

Develop, mitigate, and disseminate accurate information on public

impacts.

Increase public involvement, understanding, and community

engagement on the basis of best practices.

Evaluate potential aviation and radar challenges and proactively

develop impact reduction and mitigation options.

Collaborate to provide clear and concise regulatory frameworks.

Develop comprehensive training, workforce, and educational programs to

educate the workforce needed by the industry.

What Must 

Happen to 

Achieve 

the Vision 

Chapter

For more information, visit www.eere.energy.gov/wind/windvision.html