Understanding the Science of Climate Change

Talking Points – Impacts to Alaska Maritime and Transitional

Natural Resource Report NPS/NRPC/NRR—2010/223

National Park Service

U.S. Department of the Interior

Natural Resource Program Center
ON THE COVER

Alpenglow above the Harding ice field at Kenai Fjords National Park; NPS photo.
Understanding the Science of Climate Change

Talking Points – Impacts to Alaska Maritime and Transitional Bioregions

Natural Resource Report NPS/NRPC/NRR—2010/223

Caroline Jezierski

Kenai Fjords National Park

500 Adams Street, Suite 103

Seward, AK 99664-1727 

Rachel Loehman

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Fire Sciences Laboratory

5775 West US Hwy 10

Missoula, MT 59808-9361

Amanda Schramm

National Park Service

1201 Oakridge Drive

Fort Collins, CO 80525

With special thanks to the US Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station and contributions from (in alphabetical order): 

Nancy Fresco, Fritz Klasner, Ralph Moore, John Morris, John Morton, Brendan Moynahan, Bud Rice, Jeanne Schaaf, Michael 

Shephard, Bob Winfree and Leigh Welling. Layout and design: Sara Melena, Angie Richman, Caitlin Shenk, and Katherine Stehli.

July 2010

U.S. Department of the Interior

National Park Service

Natural Resource Program Center

Fort Collins, Colorado
The Natural Resource Publication series addresses natural resource topics of interest and applicability to a broad 

readership in the National Park Service and to others in the management of natural resources, including the scientific 

community, the public, and the NPS conservation and environmental constituencies. Manuscripts are peer-reviewed 

to ensure the information is scientifically credible, technically accurate, appropriately written for the intended audience, and is designed and published in a professional manner.

Natural Resource Reports are the designated medium for disseminating high priority, current natural resource management information with managerial application. The series targets a general, diverse audience, and may contain 

NPS policy considerations or address sensitive issues of management applicability. Examples of the diverse array 

of reports published in this series include vital signs monitoring plans; monitoring protocols; “how to” resource 

management papers; proceedings of resource management workshops or conferences; annual reports of resource 

programs or divisions of the Natural Resource Program Center; resource action plans; fact sheets; and regularly-published newsletters.

Views, statements, findings, conclusions, recommendations and data in this report are solely those of the author(s) 

and do not necessarily reflect views and policies of the U.S. Department of the Interior, National Park Service. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use by the 

National Park Service.

This report is available from the Natural Resource Publications Management website:

( http://www.nature.nps.gov/publications/NRPM )

Please cite this publication as:

Jezierski, C., R. Loehman, and A. Schramm. 2010. Understanding the science of climate change: Talking points - 

impacts to Alaska Maritime and Transitional. Natural Resource Report NPS/NRPC/NRR—2010/223. National Park 

Service, Fort Collins, Colorado.

NPS 953/104613, July 2010
Contents 

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................1

Climate Change Impacts to Alaska Maritime and Transitional................................................................................ 2

Summary.........................................................................................................................................................................................2

List of Parks and Refuges .............................................................................................................................................................3

Sectors:

 Temperature............................................................................................................................................................................4

 The Water Cycle .....................................................................................................................................................................5

 Vegetation................................................................................................................................................................................7

 Wildlife ....................................................................................................................................................................................9

 Disturbance............................................................................................................................................................................ 11

 Cultural Resources................................................................................................................................................................13

 Visitor Experience................................................................................................................................................................ 14

No Regrets Actions .................................................................................................................................................15

Global Climate Change...........................................................................................................................................18

Sectors:

 Temperature and greenhouse gases................................................................................................................................... 18

 Water, Snow, and Ice.............................................................................................................................................................21

 Vegetation and Wildlife .......................................................................................................................................................23

 Disturbance...........................................................................................................................................................................26

References ........................................................................................................................................................... 27
National Park Service 1

Purpose

Climate change presents significant risks to our nation’s natural and cultural resources. Although climate change was once 

believed to be a future problem, there is now unequivocal 

scientific evidence that our planet’s climate system is warming (IPCC 2007a). While many people understand that human 

emissions of greenhouse gases have contributed to recent observed climate changes, fewer are aware of the specific impacts 

these changes will bring. This document is part of a series of 

bioregional summaries that provide key scientific findings about 

climate change and impacts to protected areas. The information 

is intended to provide a basic understanding of the science of 

climate change, known and expected impacts to resources and 

visitor experience, and actions that can be taken to mitigate and 

adapt to change. The statements may be used to communicate 

with managers, frame interpretive programs, and answer general questions to the public and the media. They also provide 

helpful information to consider in developing sustainability 

strategies and long-term management plans. 

Audience

The Talking Points documents are primarily intended to provide 

park and refuge area managers and staff with accessible, up-todate information about climate change and climate change impacts to the resources they protect. 

Organizational Structure

Following the Introduction are three major sections of the 

document: a Regional Section that provides information on 

changes to Alaska Maritime and Transitional, a section outlining 

No Regrets Actions that can be taken now to mitigate and adapt 

to climate changes, and a general section on Global Climate 

Change. The Regional Section is organized around seven types 

of changes or impacts, while the Global Section is arranged 

around four topics.

Regional Section

•	 Temperature 

•	 The Water Cycle (including snow, ice, lake levels, sea levels 

and sea level rise, and ocean acidification)

•	 Vegetation (plant cover, species range shifts, and phenology)

•	 Wildlife (aquatic, marine, and terrestrial animals, range shifts, 

invasive species, migration, and phenology)

•	 Disturbance (including range shifts, plant cover, plant pests 

and pathogens, fire, flooding, and erosion)

•	 Cultural Resources (includes archeological, historical, anthropological and subsistence resources)

•	 Visitor Experience (includes human health, visitation, and 

infrastructure)

Global Section

•	 Temperature and Greenhouse Gases

•	 Water, Snow, and Ice

•	 Vegetation and Wildlife

•	 Disturbance

Information contained in this document is derived from the 

published results of a range of scientific research including 

historical data, empirical (observed) evidence, and model projections (which may use observed or theoretical relationships). 

While all of the statements are informed by science, not all statements carry the same level of confidence or scientific certainty. 

Identifying uncertainty is an important part of science but can 

be a major source of confusion for decision makers and the 

public. In the strictest sense, all scientific results carry some 

level of uncertainty because the scientific method can only 

“prove” a hypothesis to be false. However, in a practical world, 

society routinely elects to make choices and select options for 

actions that carry an array of uncertain outcomes. 

The statements in this document have been organized to help 

managers and their staffs differentiate among current levels of 

uncertainty in climate change science. In doing so, the document aims to be consistent with the language and approach taken in the Fourth Assessment on Climate Change reports by the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, 

this document discriminates among only three different levels 

of uncertainty and does not attempt to ascribe a specific probability to any particular level. These are qualitative rather than 

quantitative categories, ranked from greatest to least certainty, 

and are based on the following: 

•	 “What scientists know” are statements based on measurable 

data and historical records. These are statements for which 

scientists generally have high confidence and agreement 

because they are based on actual measurements and observations. Events under this category have already happened or 

are very likely to happen in the future.

•	 “What scientists think is likely” represents statements beyond 

simple facts; these are derived from some level of reasoning 

or critical thinking. They result from projected trends, well 

tested climate or ecosystem models, or empirically observed 

relationships (statistical comparisons using existing data). 

•	 “What scientists think is possible” are statements that use a 

higher degree of inference or deduction than the previous 

categories. These are based on research about processes that 

are less well understood, often involving dynamic interactions among climate and complex ecosystems. However, 

in some cases, these statements represent potential future 

conditions of greatest concern, because they may carry the 

greatest risk to protected area resources. 

I. Introduction 
2 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

II. Climate Change Impacts to Alaska Maritime and 

Transitional

The Maritime and Transitional Bioregion that is discussed 

in this section is shown in 

the map to the right. A list of 

parks and refuges for which 

this document is most useful 

is included on the next page. 

To help the reader navigate 

this section, each category is 

designated by color-coded 

tabs on the outside edge of 

the document.

Summary

Alaska is a huge state spanning 375 million acres and occupying nearly one-fifth of the land area for the contiguous 48 states. 

More than half of the coastline of the entire United States is in Alaska. Due to the great size and geographically diverse nature 

of Alaska, two bioregional documents were produced: “Boreal and Arctic” and “Alaska Maritime and Transitional.” In Alaska, 

the vast majority of the land is public; with approximately 222 million acres (approximately 60%) designated federal lands and 

another 90 million acres (approximately 24%) in state ownership. There are 17 National Park Service (NPS) areas in Alaska 

covering over 54 million acres; this represents two-thirds of the land in the entire National Park system. Wrangell-St. Elias is the 

largest NPS unit at over 13 million acres in size. There are 16 National Wildlife Refuges in Alaska totaling over 76 million acres, 

representing approximately 80% of the entire National Wildlife Refuge system. The two national forests in Alaska encompass 

nearly 22 million acres; Tongass National Forest is the largest United States Forest Service unit, with nearly 17 million acres. The 

Bureau of Land Management manages almost 78 million acres in Alaska. 

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
National Park Service 3

U.S. National Park Service Units

•	 Alagnak Wild River

•	 Aleutian World War II NHA

•	 Aniakchak NM & NPR

•	 Denali NP & NPR

•	 Glacier Bay NP & NPR

•	 Katmai NP & NPR

•	 Kenai Fjords NP

•	 Klondike Gold Rush NHP

•	 Lake Clark NP & NPR

•	 Sitka NHP

•	 Wrangell - St Elias NP & NPR (southen portion)

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service Units

•	 Alaska Maritime NWR

•	 Alaska Peninsula NWR

•	 Becharof NWR

•	Izembek NWR

•	 Kenai NWR

•	 Kodiak NWR

•	Togiak NWR

NHA National Historic Area

 NHP National Historical Park

NME National Memorial

NP National Park

NPR National Preserve 

NS National Seashore

NWR National Wildlife Refuge

List of Parks and Refuges

Acronym Unit Type

Summary Continued

Climate changes in the Alaska Maritime and Transitional bioregion include increased mean, minimum, and maximum annual 

temperatures, and increasing spring and wintertime temperatures that have resulted in a longer growing growing season and 

shifting plant distributions. Regional models project a wintertime shift in temperatures from below to above freezing by the 

mid to late 21st century, a decrease in the annual number of snow-free and frost-free days, and a mean increase in annual air 

temperatures. Observed hydrologic changes within the bioregion are profound, including significant decreases in the number, 

mass, and volume of glaciers; increased rates of glacial retreat and thinning; increased volume of glacial runoff; and increasing 

stream temperatures. Projections for the coming century include further changes in seasonal and annual precipitation patterns (both snow and rainfall), continued drying of existing wetlands, and sea level rise resulting from continued melting and 

retreat of glaciers. Observed and predicted bioregional changes in temperature and hydrology affect vegetation and wildlife 

through altered seasonality of runoff, increased wildfire and insect activity, movement of forests and shrublands into wetlands 

and recently deglaciated areas, phenological shifts (altered timing of reproductive events such as fish spawning and bud burst), 

and major directional and elevational shifts in plant distributions and community assemblages. Direct effects of bioregional 

climate changes on human populations and infrastructure are structure damage from thawing permafrost, altered soil conditions, and shifts in water and plant communities, which may, in turn, affect animal communities and alter fire regimes. Changes 

in terrestrial and marine wildlife distributions may affect visitor viewing opportunities and complicate subsistence hunting 

throughout the region. 

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
4 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

•	 Maximum temperature increases were 

observed throughout Alaska; the greatest 

increases were observed during the spring 

with an average increase of 0.46°C (0.83°F) 

per decade (Keyser et al. 2000). Average 

maximum temperatures increased per decade 0.14°C (0.25°F) in the summer and 

0.24°C (0.43°F) in the winter (Keyser et 

al. 2000). 

•	The greatest temperature increases in the 

Alaska Maritime and Transitional bioregion were observed during winter months. 

Air temperatures increased by 1.1 to 2.9° 

C (~ 2.0 to 5.2°F) between 1951 and 2001 

(Hartmann and Wendler 2005). From the 

period 1948 to 2009, temperature increases throughout the region ranged from 0.5 

to 2.7°C (0.1 to 4.9°F). The greatest temperature increases were observed in Talkeetna (+2.7°C, or 4.9°F), a community on 

the transitional area between maritime and 

boreal climate. Observed temperatures 

increased the least in the community of 

Kodiak (0.5°C, or 0.1°F), on the shores of 

Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska, where 

temperatures are heavily moderated by 

ocean processes (Alaska Climate Research 

Center, Geophysical Institute et al. 2009).

•	In southern and southeast Alaska the annual mean diurnal temperature range 

(difference between daily maximum and 

minimum temperatures) decreased by 0.9 

°C (1.62 °F), and the winter diurnal temperature range decreased by 1.8 °C (3.24 

°F), between 1949 and 1998 (Stafford et al. 

2000). Four of the 25 locations used in the 

study showed significant decreases for all 

seasons: Anchorage, Juneau, Seward, and 

Talkeetna (Stafford et al. 2000).

•	The majority of Alaskans polled anticipate 

that global climate change will result in 

more comfortable temperatures (Leiserowitz and Craciun 2006).

What scientists think is likely....

•	 Historical temperature trends for Seward, 

Alaska, the “jumping-off point” for Kenai 

Fjords National Park, indicate that from 

1961 to 1990 average monthly temperatures were below freezing for five months 

of the year. In contrast, climate models 

based on mid-range emissions scenarios 

Aerial view of deglaciated 

mountains at Kodiak National 

Wildlife Refuge; USFWS photo.

A. TEMPERATURE

What scientists know....

•	 Mean annual temperatures in Alaska increased an average 1.7°C over the last six 

decades, with a general warming rate of 

0.16 to 0.37°C per decade from 1951 to 

2001 (Alaska Climate Research Center et 

al. 2009; Hartmann and Wendler 2005).

•	 From 1949 to 2009, regional mean annual 

temperatures for the Arctic, Interior, and 

West Coast of Alaska increased by 1.4 

to 2.5°C (2.5 to 4.5°F) and the greatest 

change in mean seasonal temperatures (2.3 

to 4.9°C, 4.1 to 8.8°F) was observed in the 

winter (Alaska Climate Research Center 

2010).

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
National Park Service 5

•	 Average winter temperatures are predicted to shift from below freezing to above 

freezing (increases of 3.92 to 5.6°C, or 7.0 

to 10.0°F) by 2080 for Aniakchak National 

Monument and Preserve, Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve, Katmai National 

Park and Preserve, and Kenai Fjords National Park (Rupp and Loya 2009a, b, c, d). 

B. THE WATER CYCLE

What scientists know....

•	 All Alaskan glaciers below ~1,500 m 

(4,905ft) above sea level in elevation are 

melting, and many of Alaska’s 100, 000 glaciers (including tidewater formations) are 

retreating and/or thinning (Molnia 2007, 

2008). 

•	The melting rate of glaciers throughout 

Alaska has increased in recent decades, 

as has their contribution to sea level rise 

(Dyurgerov and Meier 2000; Larsen et 

al. 2007a). From the mid 1990s to the 

early 2000s, the rate of glacial thinning in 

Alaska tripled compared to the mid 1950s 

to mid-1970s time period; the loss of ice 

during this period was equivalent to nearly 

twice the estimated annual loss of ice from 

the Greenland Ice Sheet. Over the last 

half of the 20th century, Alaska glaciers 

contributed the largest single measured 

glaciological contribution to sea level, with 

a total annual volume change of –52 ± 15 

km3/year (12.3 ± 3.6 miles3) water equivalent, which equates to a rise in sea level of 

0.14mm ± 0.04 mm/year, (0.006 ± 0.002 in/

year). (Arendt et al. 2002). 

•	The rate of thinning of glaciers in southeast Alaska, including some glaciers within 

Glacier Bay National Park, has increased 

in recent years (Arendt et al. 2002). The 

Mendenhall Glacier near Juneau has retreated a distance of 4.5 kilometers (2.8 

miles) since the end of the Little Ice Age in 

the late 19th century, and its rate of retreat 

has increased since the late 1990s to a pace 

in excess of 50 meters per year (Kelly et 

al. 2007).

•	 Glaciers in the mountains around the Gulf 

of Alaska have lost a mass equivalent in 

volume to approximately 124 km3 (29.5 

At Kenai Fjords National Park 

an iceberg floats in Bear Glacier 

Lake. The glacier is undergoing 

a rapid retreat; NPS photo.

predict that by 2031 average monthly temperatures will be below freezing for three 

months of the year, and by 2061 average 

temperatures above freezing are predicted 

for all months of the year (Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning 2010b).

•	In King Salmon, the community outside 

Katmai National Park and Preserve, the 

number of months with an average temperature below freezing will decrease by 

50% by 2061, as compared to historical 

records (Scenarios Network for Alaska 

Planning 2010a).

•	 Models project an overall decrease in the 

number of frost days (days with a nighttime temperature below 0°C) by the end of 

the 21st century, with the most significant 

changes in the northwest U.S. (Meehl et 

al. 2004).

What scientists think is possible....

•	 Annual mean temperatures are predicted 

to increase at an average rate of 0.56°C 

(1.0°F) per decade for Alaska National 

Park units (Rupp and Loya 2009a, b, c, d, e, 

f, h), with the exception of Sitka National 

Historical Park where the rate of increase 

is predicted to be 0.34°C (0.61°F) per decade (Rupp and Loya 2009g).

•	 Average annual temperatures in Lake 

Clark National Park and Preserve and 

Wrangell-St. Elias National Park and Preserve are predicted to shift from below 

freezing to above freezing during the 21st 

century (Rupp and Loya 2009f, h). 

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
6 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

miles3)per year between 2002 and 2005 

(Chen et al. 2006).

•	 Between 2003 and 2007, elevation change 

was observed in the glaciers of the St. Elias 

Mountains, several of which are within 

Wrangell-St. Elias National Park. The 

mass balance of these glaciers was reduced 

by approximately 21 gigatons per year, 

which equates to approximately 0.64m 

(2.1ft) per year water equivalent. Runoff 

from the melting ice makes its way to the 

ocean, where it contributes to sea level rise 

(Arendt et al. 2008). 

•	The estimated total volume change of the 

Harding Icefield and associated glaciers, 

more than 50% of which are contained 

in Kenai Fjords National Park, decreased 

by 34 km3 (8.1 miles3), with an average 

decrease in elevation of 21 m (68.7 ft), between the 1950s and the mid-1990s (Aðalgeirsdóttir et al. 1998); this rate of thinning 

increased by 1.5 times between the mid1990s and 1999 (Vanlooy et al. 2006). 

•	The terminus of Exit Glacier, a main attraction in Kenai Fjords National Park, 

retreated a distance of 500m (1,635ft) and 

thinned by 80 to 90m (262 to 294ft) in the 

lower region between 1950 and 1990 (Aðalgeirsdóttir et al. 1998). 

•	 Glacial recession in Southeast Alaska affects the physical and biochemical condition of streams and the land-to-ocean flux 

of organic and inorganic nutrients (Hood 

and Durelle 2008). 

•	In streams with a large glaciated area as 

part of their watershed, turbidity is higher 

and water temperatures and conductivity 

are lower as the proportion of glaciation 

increases. Glacial meltwater lowers stream 

temperatures and provides streams with a 

source of nitrogen rich dissolved organic 

matter and phosphorus via rock weathering. Lower stream temperatures, higher 

turbidity, and inputs of glacial meltwater 

all influence the timing and viability of 

salmon runs in coastal streams (Hood and 

Berner 2009).

•	 Between the months of May and October, stream temperatures in southcentral 

Alaska were coldest for streams with watershed containing more than 25% glacial 

influence (Kyle and Brabets 2001). 

•	 Snow patterns in Alaska have changed in 

the past five decades. From 1972 to 2000, 

the duration of the snow-free period increased by 3 to 6 days per decade, and the 

first week in spring without snow cover 

shifted to 3 to 5 days earlier per decade 

(Dye 2002). 

•	In Juneau, average winter snowfall at sealevel decreased from 277 to 236 cm (109 

to 93 inches) from 1943 to 2005, but overall precipitation increased by 6.6 cm (2.6 

inches) (Kelly et al. 2007).

•	In southern and southeast Alaska, timing 

and amount of annual and seasonal mean 

precipitation changed between 1949 and 

1998. Annually, there was a 10% increase 

in precipitation, with the greatest increase 

(22%) in the winter and a 1% decrease in 

mean summer precipitation. A 17% annual 

increase was observed in Seward; Yakutat 

was the only station that showed increased 

precipitation during all seasons (Stafford 

et al. 2000).

•	 From 2001 to 2007, a study of the lake ice 

season of multiple lakes in Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, Katmai National 

Park and Preserve, and Kenai National 

Wildlife Refuge found that winter temperatures and weather conditions influence 

the timing of freeze-up and break-up and 

the duration of lake ice (Reed et al. 2009). 

The rate of thinning of some 

glaciers in Glacier Bay has increased in recent years. Johns 

Hopkins Glacier at Glacier Bay 

National Park; NPS photo.

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
National Park Service 7

and 7 to 26% in the winter months. Due to 

increased evapotranspiration (the transport of water into the atmosphere from 

surfaces, including soils and vegetation) 

from temperature increases and lengthened growing seasons, the summer and fall 

seasons will be drier than they are currently (Rupp and Loya 2009a, b, c, d, e, f, g, h).

What scientists think is possible....

•	 Recent projections of the contribution of 

glaciers and ice caps to sea level rise are 

higher than were determined in previous 

assessments. Current projections suggest 

that glaciers and ice caps may exceed or 

equal the contribution of the Greenland 

and Antarctic ice sheets to sea level rise 

throughout the next century; the volume 

of the glaciers and ice caps will be decreased less than 35%, leaving substantial volume for additional future melting 

(Meier et al. 2007). 

C. VEGETATION

What scientists know....

•	 Based on a meta analysis of studies examining phenological shifts (shifts in life 

cycle processes), species at higher latitudes 

are more sensitive to climatic change than 

species that exist at lower latitudes (Root 

et al. 2003).

•	 Climate has demonstrably affected terrestrial ecosystems through changes in the 

seasonal timing of life-cycle events (phenology), plant-growth responses (primary 

production), and biogeographic distribution (Parmesan 2006; Field et al. 2007). 

Statistically significant shifts in Northern 

Hemisphere vegetation phenology, productivity, and distribution have been observed and are attributed to 20th century 

climate changes (Walther et al. 2002; Parmesan and Yohe 2003; Parmesan 2006).

•	 Between 1980 and 2000, a trend toward 

earlier spring budburst and increased 

maximum leaf area at high northern latitudes was observed, mainly due to changes 

in temperature (Lucht et al. 2002).

•	 Based on over 40 years of data collected across Alaska, the growing season has 

•	 Between 1950 and 1996, over 80% of wetland sites surveyed on the Kenai Peninsula 

had experienced some degree of drying 

and nearly 66% of wetland sites had decreased in area (Klein et al. 2005).

What scientists think is likely....

•	Twentieth century climate warming on the 

northern margin of Bagley Icefield is more 

intense, and accompanied by more extensive glacier retreat, than the Medieval 

Warm Period or any other time in the last 

1,500 years (Loso et al. 2007).

•	 As watersheds become deglaciated and 

plant succession occurs, the input of organic carbon and inorganic nitrogen into 

the streams will be altered, thereby changing the land-to-ocean fluxes of nutrients 

(Hood and Durelle 2008).

•	 High-latitude surface waters are expected 

to experience rapid ocean acidification, a 

process in which atmospheric CO2 is absorbed into ocean water, forming carbonic acid. Cold water, shallow continental 

shelves, melting sea ice, and high productivity of Alaska’s marine waters facilitate 

the increased absorption of CO2, reduced 

deep water circulation, and decomposition; all contribute to increased acidification compared to other regions (Fabry et 

al. 2009).

•	 Models project that precipitation will increase in all national park units in this 

bioregion from 7 to 13% in the summers 

Visitors walk a trail at Exit Glacier, a main attraction in Kenai 

Fjords National Park. The terminus of Exit Glacier has retreated 

significantly in the last 50 years, 

NPS photo. 

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
8 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

lengthened by an average of 2.6 days per 

decade. For the Maritime and Transitional 

bioregion, the growing season lengthened 

between 1.51 (Talkeetna) and 6.97 (Yakutat) days per decade (Keyser et al. 2000).

•	 On the Kenai Peninsula, wooded regions 

increased in area by 28% between 1950 

and 1996,while open, wet, and watered 

areas decreased in size. Type shifts from 

wetlands to upland habitats were observed 

during the same time period (Klein et al. 

2005).

•	 Comparisons of historical (ca. late 1800s 

to early 1900s) photographs with current 

(2004 to 2006) photos reveal that following 

glacial retreat in national parks in southwest Alaska, coastal areas experienced a 

striking level of vegetation colonization, 

but vegetation colonization in higher elevation areas was less marked (Jorgenson 

and Bennett 2006).

•	Treeline expansion was documented from 

photo comparisons in Katmai National 

Park and Preserve and Lake Clark National Park and Preserve. In Katmai, white 

spruce (Picea glauca) and Kenai birch (Betula papyrifera Marsh. var. kenaica) cover 

has increased since 1919. White spruce 

forests have advanced in elevation in Lake 

Clark in the past 75 years; at most sites 

below 850 meters (2788 ft) in elevation, 

where Krummholz spruce were present 

in photos from 1928 to 1929, the size and 

number of these trees has increased (Jorgenson and Bennett 2006).

•	 Shrub expansion into uplands was documented along granitic ridges, where shrub 

cover increased from less than 50% between 1928 and 1929 to over 75% between 

2004 and 2006 (Jorgenson and Bennett 

2006). A preliminary comparison of aerial 

photographs from 1950 to 2005 in Kenai 

Fjords National Park documented conversion of two to 14% of barren areas to shrub 

cover, for all fjords studied. In Northwestern fjord, an area that is experiencing rapid 

glacial retreat, 39% of the areas that were 

once ice-covered have been converted to 

shrublands (Boucher et al. 2009).

What scientists think is likely....

•	The decline in Alaskan yellow-cedar (Callitropsis nootkatensis), a widespread species across southeastern Alaska, may be 

due to lack of late season snow pack that 

helps to insulate the roots and protect 

them from spring freezes. The yellow cedars migrated to lower elevations during 

the Little Ice Age and have experienced 

declines as the temperatures have warmed 

(Hennon et al. 2006).

•	 Forest response to changing climate will 

depend on the factors that limit productivity at a particular site; for example, changes 

in growing season length may affect annual productivity, and increased nitrogen 

and CO2 inputs strongly influence forest 

productivity if other factors (water, temperature, radiation) are less limiting (Ryan 

et al. 2008).

What scientists think is possible....

•	 Based on a model for lands directly adjacent to southeast Alaska in British Columbia, the majority of trees and vegetation 

classes are predicted to shift northward 

and upward in elevation. Mountain hemVegetation colonization has 

been observed in deglaciated 

areas throughout the Southwest Alaska Network. Above, 

photographs of Bear Glacier in 

Kenai Fjords National Park from 

1909 (top) and 2005 (bottom) 

show a previously glaciated 

area now dominated by forest. 

NPS photos. 

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
National Park Service 9

lock (Tsuga mertensiana), alpine tundra, 

and plants within the spruce-willow-birch 

zone are expected to shift more than 500m 

(1, 635ft) upward in elevation by 2085. The 

greatest shift northward is predicted for 

ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) (614km, 

or 381 miles), by 2085 (Hamann and Wang 

2006). 

•	 By 2085, the spatial extent of alpine tundra, sthe Sub-Boreal Pine-Spruce Zone 

(composed mainly of dry lodgepole pine 

[Pinus contorta] forests and wetlands), 

and the Spruce-Willow-Birch Zone in areas adjacent to southeast Alaska in British 

Columbia, may decrease by 97%, 98%, 

and 99%, respectively. Within this region 

the species distributions of bunchgrass, 

ponderosa pine, and coastal Douglas-fir 

are expected to increase in spatial extent 

by 773%, 452%, and 336% (Hamann and 

Wang 2006).

D. WILDLIFE

What scientists know....

•	 A consistent temperature-related shift has 

been observed across a broad range of 

plant and animal species (80% of species 

from 143 studies), including changes in 

species density, northward or poleward 

range shifts, changes in phenology, and 

shifts in genetic frequencies (Root et al. 

2003).

•	 A meta analysis of climate change effects 

on range boundaries in Northern Hemisphere species of birds, butterflies, and 

alpine herbs shows an average shift of 6.1 

kilometers per decade northward (or meters per decade upward), and a mean shift 

toward earlier onset of spring events (frog 

breeding, bird nesting, first flowering, tree 

budburst, and arrival of migrant butterflies 

and birds) of 2.3 days per decade (Parmesan and Yohe 2003).

•	The body size of masked shrews in Alaska 

increased significantly during the second 

half of the twentieth century. Evidence indicates that warmer winter weather conditions increased the survival rate of shrew’s 

prey (small invertebrates that are sensitive 

to the cold), providing greater food availability for the shrew (Yom-Tov and YomTov 2005).

•	 As glaciers retreat, new land and streams 

become available for colonization by fish 

and wildlife. In Glacier Bay National Park, 

salmon and Dolly Varden were captured 

in several recently deglaciated streams, 

including streams less than 50 years old 

(Milner et al. 2000). 

•	 Average water temperatures during the 

incubation period of native pink salmon 

(Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) in Auke Creek, 

near Juneau, increased at a rate of 0.03 °C 

(0.05 °F) per year from 1972 to 2005. Over 

the same time period a trend of earlier migration of pink salmon fry was observed, 

at a rate of −0.5 days per year, and the migration timing of adult salmon into Auke 

Creek also showed a trend toward earlier 

timing (Taylor 2008).

•	 An 84% decline in Kittlitz’s murrelets 

(Brachyramphus brevirostris), a diving 

seabird of relatively low abundance found 

only in Alaska and eastern Siberia, was observed in Prince William Sound from 1989 

(6400 birds observed) to 2000 (1000 birds 

observed). During this period, bird distribution in the sound shifted from a fairly 

dispersed pattern to concentration in the 

northwest region. Fjords from which this 

species disappeared had receding glaciers 

as of the late 1980s, or had no direct glacial input, indicating a link between the 

decline of Kittlitz’s murrelets and glacial 

recession (Kuletz et al. 2003). 

Salmon are highly vulnerable 

to the effects of climate change 

due to their dependence on cold 

water for life cycle processes. 

Brown bears and other species 

that depend on salmon as a 

food source are directly affected 

by changes in salmon populations. NPS photos.

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
10 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

•	 Models suggest that the distribution of the 

little brown bat will expand northward in 

Alaska in the next century in response to 

warming temperatures and shorter winters in its current range (Humphries et al. 

2002).

•	 Coastal seabirds such as the arctic ivory 

gull, (Pagophila eburnea), aleutian tern 

(Onychoprion aleuticus), and Kittlitz’s 

murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) 

show medium or high vulnerability to climate change due to their low reproductive potential and their reliance on marine 

food webs that are also threatened by climate change (NABCI 2010).

•	 Kittlitz’s Murrelet populations will continue to decline as glacial retreat results in 

the loss of more important habitats (USFWS 2006). 

•	Thawing permafrost may result in changes in the distribution and abundance of 

waterfowl, shorebirds, and gulls due to 

shifts in the types and locations of plant 

communities and changes in surface water 

availability; contaminants such as mercury 

and organic pollutants may also be released into the aquatic environment as the 

permafrost thaws, increasing contaminant 

exposure for birds that rely on the marine 

ecosystem for food (NABCI 2010). 

•	 Ocean acidification will make shell building and carbonate skeletal development 

more difficult for pteropods, sea urchins, 

molluscs, and other marine organisms. It 

will also impact growth, reproduction, and 

survival of many marine organisms, including pteropods, which make up nearly 

half of the pink salmon’s diet (Fabry et al. 

2009). 

•	 Changes in community organization in the 

Bering Sea caused by warming climate and 

associated loss of sea ice will alter availability of snow crab and other fisheries 

resources (Mueter and Litzow 2008) 

What scientists think is possible....

•	 As temperatures increase in oceans and 

streams, salmon migration, spawning and 

incubation times may no longer match 

favorable environmental conditions, and 

•	In Glacier Bay National Park, Populations of Kittlitz’s muurelets (Brachyramphus brevirostris) and marbled murrelets 

(Brachyramphus marmoratus) declined 

between 1991 and 2003, likely due to dramatic changes in glacial-marine habitats 

and alterations in terrestrial nesting habitats (Drew et al. 2007)

•	The Audubon Christmas Bird count, a 

citizen science project, has documented 

that the center of the mean annual latitudinal center of abundance for over 300 

bird species shifted northward nearly 35 

miles (56.4 km) between 1966 and 2004. 

There is a significant correlation between 

temperature trends and shifts in the center 

of abundance. The mean latitudinal shift 

for the pine siskin, a small finch and yearround resident of southern Alaska, was 

approximately 288 miles (463.7km) north 

(Niven and Butcher 2009). 

What scientists think is likely....

•	 Changes to the terrestrial and aquatic species compositions in parks and refuges are 

likely to occur as ranges shift, contract, or 

expand. Rare species and/or communities 

may be at further risk, and additional species could become rare (Burns et al. 2003).

•	 Parks and refuges may not be able to meet 

their mandate of protecting species that 

live within their boundaries, or in the case 

of some refuges, the species for whose 

habitat protection they were designed. 

While wildlife may be able to move northward or to higher elevations to escape 

some effects of climate change, federal 

boundaries are static (Burns et al. 2003).

Kittlitz’s murrelets are losing 

habitat as glaciers retreat, and 

may disappear entirely from 

some areas of Alaska; NPS photos. 

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience

Harbor seals haulout on ice 

calved from glaciers at Glacier 

Bay. Harbor seals rest, give birth, 

and molt on calved ice. Glacier 

Bay was once home to one of 

the largest harbor seal breeding 

colonies in Alaska, but populations have declined significantly, 

coinciding with a reduction in 

ice calving in the bay. NPS photo.
National Park Service 11

habitat areas like Auke Creek, near Juneau, 

may become unsuitable for pink salmon 

(Taylor 2008).

•	 Stream temperature models for Cook Inlet Basin in south-central Alaska predict 

water-temperature changes of around 3 

°C (5.4 °F) with a doubling of atmospheric 

CO2, a magnitude of change that is considered significant for the incidence of disease in fish populations (Kyle and Brabets 

2001).

•	 Because harbor seals in southeast and 

south central Alaska are dependent on 

tidewater glaciers for resting, molting, and 

calving sites, loss of glacial ice may limit 

recovery of already-diminshed harbor seal 

populations and force seals to move away 

from Glacier Bay, spend more time in 

the water, or use terrestrial habitat areas. 

Glacier Bay was once home to one of the 

largest harbor seal breeding colonies in 

Alaska, but between 1992 and 2008 the 

number of harbor seals and the harbor 

seal pup count declined significantly, and 

the long-term trend estimate for harbor 

seals at Johns Hopkins Inlet in Glacier Bay 

shows a population decline of 12.4% per 

year, with pup count decreasing by 5.0% 

per year (Womble 2010, Mathews and 

Pendleton 2007).

•	 An analysis of potential climate change 

impacts on mammalian species in U.S. national parks indicates that with a doubling 

of atmospheric CO2, about 8% of current 

mammalian species diversity may be lost 

on average. The greatest losses across all 

parks occurred in rodent species (44%), 

bats (22%), and carnivores (19%). Species 

are projected to decline in direct proportion to their current relative representation within parks. (Burns et al. 2003).

•	 Changing vegetation cover in many park 

areas will affect wildlife species dependent 

on those habitats. Animals will eventually 

occupy landscapes vacated by glacial ice, 

and utilize new alpine lakes after ice is 

gone (Burkett et al. 2005). 

•	The synergism of rapid temperature rise 

and stresses such as habitat destruction 

may disrupt connectedness among species, lead to reformulation of species communities, and result in numerous extirpations and/or extinctions (Root et al. 2003).

•	 Earlier onset of spring may initially increase productivity of nesting shorebirds, 

if they are able to change their migration 

and nesting schedules to coincide with the 

time when the most insects are available 

(NABCI 2010). 

E. DISTURBANCE

What scientists know....

•	Insect outbreaks increase in range and 

frequency with increased temperatures 

(Juday et al. 2004, Berg et al. 2006).

•	In southcentral Alaska in the 1990s a 

spruce bark beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak, likely related to extremely high summer temperatures, affected two to three million trees, killing all 

spruce trees greater than 10 centimeters 

(3.9 inches) in diameter in some stands 

(Juday 1998, Berg et al. 2006).

•	Tree-ring records indicate that spruce 

bark beetle outbreaks have occurred on 

the Kenai Peninsula approximately every 

52 years for the past 250 years, following 

5 to 6 years of warm summer temperatures and mild winters. These warm temperatures likely influence spruce beetle 

population size through a combination of 

increased overwinter survival, a doubling 

of the maturation rate from 2 years to 1 

year, and regional drought-induced stress 

Foresters examine a tree that 

has suffered infestation of 

spruce bark beetle; USFWS photos.

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
12 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

of mature host trees; if the recent warming 

trend continues, endemic levels of spruce 

beetles will likely be high enough to perennially thin forests as soon as the trees reach 

susceptible size (Berg et al. 2006).

•	 Climate warming that results in rapid 

glacial melting (“wastage”), such as that 

observed in recent decades in southeast 

Alaska, can excite a very large solid earth 

response through the process of isostatic 

rebound (rise of land masses depressed 

by the weight of ice masses). This can impact regional faulting and seismic activity 

(Larsen et al. 2005). Land uplift since the 

late 18th century has been approximately 

3.15 meters (10.5 feet) in Juneau, and up 

to 3.0 centimeters (1.2 inches) per year in 

areas around Glacier Bay National Park 

(Kelly et al. 2007). 

What scientists think is likely....

•	 Due to ocean acidification, there has been 

a decrease in sound absorption. Based on 

current projections of future pH values for 

the oceans, a decrease in sound absorption 

of 40% is expected by mid-century (Hester et al. 2008).

•	 Glaciers melting and the associated rebound of the land (isostatic rebound) may 

produce a myriad of impacts including 

increased frequency of earthquakes. Based 

on evidence from former melting events, it 

is predicted that isostatic rebound may decrease fault stability margin and increase 

thrust faulting events such as earthquakes 

and aftershocks (Sauber and Molnia 2004). 

•	 Glacier Bay National Park contains some 

of the fastest measured rates of uplift in 

the world. This uplift is occurring in direct 

relationship with glacial ice reduction and 

sea level rise, and has been caused primarily by these climatic changes rather than 

seismic factors. These changes in glacial 

ice loading can affect seismicity and regional tectonics and contribute to changes 

in hydrologic patterns, erosion, sedimentation, and changes to shorelines (Motyka 

et al. 2007). 

•	It may take decades for a spruce forest 

to recover from a spruce bark beetle outbreak and for there to be sufficient numbers of mature trees to sustain future beetle attacks (Berg et al. 2006).

•	In the decades following a major tundra 

fire on a hillslope in the Seward Peninsula, vegetation population shifts, major 

permafrost thawing, soil decomposition, 

and surface subsidence were observed, 

suggesting that similar fire events in other 

permafrost areas could result in similar 

impacts (Racine et al. 2004). 

What scientists think is possible....

•	 Land uplift in the Juneau area due to isostatic rebound may offset the impacts of 

rising sea levels in the area, as the land is 

expected to rise above the projected sea 

level (Kelly et al. 2007). 

•	 Ichthyophonus, a parasite that causes mortality in fish populations and is easily and 

rapidly spread among fishes, infected 45% 

of Chinook salmon in the Yukon River and 

about 30% of the salmon in the Tanana 

River between 1999 and 2003. Warming 

water temperatures may have contributed 

to these levels of infection, as the parasite 

was not reported to affect salmon in these 

rivers before 1985 (Kocan et al. 2004). 

•	 Model simulations suggest that a warming climate may result in greater number 

of fires and as much as a 22% increase in 

the regional area burned, as the result of 

both increased vegetation flammability in 

direct response to increased temperatures 

and expansion of forested areas into previously treeless tundra (Dale et al. 2001; 

Rupp et al. 2000).

Modeling shows that warming 

temperatures in the bioregion 

could lead to more fires, and 

that those fires may be larger 

than the fire events of the past. 

NPS photo. 

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
National Park Service 13

•	The majority of Alaskans polled anticipate that global climate change will cause 

increased flooding, worse storms, fewer 

salmon, and the extinction of the polar 

bear (Leiserowitz and Craciun 2006).

CULTURAL RESOURCES

What scientists know....

•	 Sea level rise, increased storm surges, and 

the impacts of permafrost erosion to infrastructure have begun to impact Native 

Alaskan communities, diverting resources 

from subsistence activities and in some 

cases requiring relocation of entire communities (Callaway 2007).

•	The tribal community at Nelson Lagoon 

is facing increased threats to its village infrastructure from storm surges. For example, their shoreline breakwalls have been 

weakened by the melting shore ice and 

increasingly violent storms (ACIA 2004). 

•	 Relocating indigenous communities represents a large financial cost for governments, but also impacts the communities 

themselves, potentially resulting in loss of 

integral cultural elements such as access 

to traditional use areas for subsistence activities, loss of history and sense of intact 

community, and potential loss of social 

networks and extended kin support (Callaway 2007).

•	 Some traditional subsistence practices are 

more expensive and time-consuming than 

in the recent past, due to difficult hunting 

conditions associated with climate change 

impacts. These changes can place a strain 

on subsistence communities, and in some 

cases can be a deterrent to engaging in traditional hunting at all; for example, as sea 

ice conditions change, marine mammals 

may follow sea ice retreat, altering their 

distribution and taking them out of range 

for some hunters (Berman and Kofinas 

2004; Callaway 2007; Hanna 2007).

•	 Aleut tribes have reported changes in 

local marine life populations that affect 

subsistence harvests, including increased 

presence of salmon sharks, reductions in 

eider populations, and changes in season 

for northern fur seals and Steller sea lion 

(ACIA 2004).

•	 According to the Alaska Department of 

Resources, Division of Lands, the winter 

tundra travel season on the Arctic North 

Slope has decreased from about 200 days 

in the 1970s to about 120 days in the early 

2000s. Reliable travel over the frozen tundra enables natural resource development, 

access to subsistence sites, and travel between villages (Bradwell et al. 2004).

•	The majority of Alaskans polled believe 

that global warming will seriously impact 

their families, communities, plants, and 

animals. Many believe that it will have 

serious impacts to Alaska within a decade 

(Leiserowitz and Craciun 2006).

What scientists think is likely....

•	In Lake Clark National Park and Preserve, 

shoreline erosion in Chinitna Bay may 

threaten archeological sites near Clam 

Cove (Cusick and Bennett 2005). 

•	 As glaciers and ice melt, cultural resources 

may be uncovered. Artifacts have been 

recovered from ice patches in WrangellSt. Elias National Park. For example, five 

prehistoric sites were identified that contained artifacts ranging in age 370 to 2880 

years before present. Such artifacts can 

provide unprecedented glimpses into the 

lives of ancient people (Dixon et al. 2007). 

•	 Subsistence communities have expressed 

concerns about increased pollution and 

its potential effects on the natural environment’s ability to respond to climate 

change. For example, because heavy metRemnant ice patch site discovered in Lake Clark National Park 

and Preserve in 2009 yielding 

the late prehistoric antler arrow point shown above. Photos 

courtesy of J. Schaaf.

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
14 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

ism. The longer warm season has improved 

overall weather conditions for sightseeing 

in King Salmon, while weather conditions 

for skiing in Anchorage have deteriorated 

since the 1940s (Trainor et al. 2010). 

•	 Glaciers, a main tourist attraction in many 

parks, are disappearing. This is happening 

throughout Alaska, including at national 

parks such as Wrangell St.-Elias and Kenai 

Fjords (Adema et al. 2007; Dyurgerov and 

Meier 2000; Larsen et al. 2007a; Molnia 

2007; Rupp and Loya 2009).

•	 With increasing temperatures and more 

snow-free days, the length of the potential 

summer tourist season in Alaska is increasing (Alaska Climate Research Center 2009; 

Dye 2002).

What scientists think is likely....

•	 A study at Kenai Fjords National Park 

determined sea level rise and wave height 

increases could impact park resources 

through erosion and loss of gravel beaches along rocky coastlines. These pocket 

beaches are currently used recreationally 

by sea kayakers (Pendleton et al. 2006).

•	The locations of climatically ideal tourism 

conditions are likely to shift toward higher 

latitudes under projected climate change, 

as a consequence, spatial and temporal 

redistribution of tourism activities may 

occur. The effects of these changes will depend greatly on the flexibility demonstrated by institutions and tourists as they react 

to these changes (Amelung et al. 2007).

What scientists think is possible....

•	 Damage to roads, buildings, and other 

infrastructure is predicted with climate 

change, due largely to permafrost thawing 

(ACIA 2004; Smith and Levasseur 2003). 

Damage could increase future costs for 

Alaska’s public infrastructure from 3.6 to 

6.1 billion dollars (10% to 20%) by 2030 

to 5.6 to 7.6 billion dollars (10% to 12%) 

by 2080 (Larsen et al. 2007b). 

•	The majority of Alaskans polled believe 

that tourism will increase as a result of 

global climate change (Leiserowitz and 

Craciun 2006).

als and other contaminants bio-accumulate up the food chain, there are concerns 

that marine mammals and other animals 

harvested for subsistence could be sources of contaminants for hunters and their 

families as changes in circulatory patterns 

of water and air bring contaminants into 

the natural system (Callaway 1999). Researchers have found contaminants and 

heavy metals in animals harvested for subsistence in the Arctic (Cooper et al. 2000; 

Dehn et al. 2006).

What scientists think is possible....

•	 Migration patterns of terrestrial animals 

are predicted to change as temperatures, 

precipitation patterns, and vegetation 

availability change. An alteration in migration patterns will make hunting more 

challenging (Callaway 1999; ACIA 2004). 

•	 Climate change may affect people’s ability to conduct subsistence harvests due to 

changes in wildlife distribution and availability. Subsistence harvesting activities 

are linked to the health of rural residents 

in several ways, including the physical exertion of a hunt that promotes mental and 

physical well being, the nutritional value of 

harvested food items compared to storebought food, and the value of maintaining 

a traditional diet (Callaway 1999).

VISITOR EXPERIENCE

What scientists know....

•	 A study of climate effects on tourism in 

King Salmon (near Katmai National Park 

and Preserve) and Anchorage shows climate warming has had both positive and 

negative effects on opportunities for tourA hiker at False Summit, along 

the Chilkoot Trail at Klondike 

Goldrush National Historical 

Park (Top). Fishing has been an 

important part of the economic 

and cultural heritage of Alaska 

as shown in this historic photo 

from Lake Clark National Park 

and Preserve (Bottom). NPS 

Photos.

Temperature Water Cycle Vegetation Wildlife Disturbance Cultural Resources Visitor Experience
National Park Service 15

III. No Regrets Actions: How Individuals, Parks, Refuges, and 

Their Partners Can Do Their Part

Individuals, businesses, and agencies release carbon dioxide (CO2), the principal greenhouse gas, through burning of fossil 

fuels for electricity, heating, transportation, food production, and other day-to-day activities. Increasing levels of atmospheric 

CO2 have measurably increased global average temperatures, and are projected to cause further changes in global climate, with 

severe implications for vegetation, wildlife, oceans, water resources, and human populations. Emissions reduction – limiting 

production of CO2 and other greenhouse gases - is an important step in addressing climate change. It is the responsibility of 

agencies and individuals to find ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to educate about the causes and consequences 

of climate change, and ways in which we can reduce our impacts on natural resources. There are many simple actions that each 

of us can take to reduce our daily carbon emissions, some of which will even save money.

Agencies Can...

Improve sustainability and 

energy efficiency

•	 Use energy efficient products, such as 

ENERGY STAR® approved office equipment, appliances and light bulbs.

•	 Initiate an energy efficiency program to 

monitor energy use in buildings. Provide 

guidelines for reducing energy consumption.

•	 Convert to renewable energy sources 

such as solar or wind generated power.

•	 Specify “green” designs for construction 

of new or remodeled buildings.

•	 Include discussions of climate change in 

park Environmental Management System. 

•	 Conduct an emissions inventory and set 

goals for CO2 reduction.

•	 Provide alternative transportation options such as employee bicycles and shuttles for within-unit commuting. 

•	 Provide hybrid electric or propane-fueled 

vehicles for official use, and impose fuel 

standards for park vehicles. Reduce the 

number and/or size of park vehicles and 

boats to maximize efficiency.

•	 Provide a shuttle service or another form 

of alternate transportation for visitor and 

employee travel to and within the unit. 

•	 Provide incentives for use of alternative 

transportation methods.

•	 Use teleconferences and webinars or other 

forms of modern technology in place of 

travel to conferences and meetings.

Implement Management Actions

•	 Engage and enlist collaborator support 

(e.g., tribes, nearby agencies, private landholders) in climate change discussions, responses, and mitigation. 

•	 Develop strategies and identify priorities 

for managing uncertainty surrounding climate change effects in parks and refuges. 

•	 Build a strong partnership-based foundation for future conservation efforts.

•	 Identify strategic priorities for climate 

change efforts when working with partners.

•	 Incorporate anticipated climate change 

impacts, such as decreases in lake levels, 

rising sea levels, or changes in vegetation 

and wildlife, into management plans.

•	 Encourage research and scientific study in 

park units and refuges.

•	 Design long-term monitoring projects and 

management activities that do not rely 

An interpretive brochure about 

climate change impacts to National Parks was created in 2006 

and was distributed widely. This 

brochure was updated in 2008.
16 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

solely on fossil fuel-based transportation 

and infrastructure.

•	 Incorporate products and services that address climate change in the development 

of all interpretive and management plans. 

•	 Take inventory of the facilities/boundaries/species within your park or refuge 

that may benefit from or be vulnerable to 

climate change mitigation or adaptation 

activities.

•	 Participate in gateway community sustainability efforts.

•	 Recognize the value of ecosystem services 

that an area can provide, and manage the 

area to sustain these services. Conservation is more cost-effective than restoration 

and helps maintain ecosystem integrity.

•	 Provide recycling options for solid waste 

and trash generated within the park.

•	 Anticipate potential landscape and sealevel changes when designing new or replacement facilities and infrastructure, including positioning new facilities to avoid 

or mitigate impact from sea level rise or 

permafrost thawing.

•	 Work with native communities to identify 

climate refugia as special places for sustaining traditional subsistence living.

Restore damaged landscapes

•	 Restoration efforts are important as a 

means for enhancing species’ ability to 

cope with stresses and adapt to climatic 

and environmental changes. Through restoration of natural areas, we can lessen climate change impacts on species and their 

habitats. These efforts will help preserve 

biodiversity, natural resources, and recreational opportunities.

•	 Strategically focus restoration efforts, both 

in terms of the types of restoration undertaken and their national, regional, and 

local scale and focus, to help maximize 

resilience.

•	 Restore and conserve connectivity within 

habitats, protect and enhance instream 

flows for fish, and maintain and develop 

access corridors to climate change refugia. 

Educate staff and the public

•	 Post climate change information in easily accessible locations such as on bulletin 

boards and websites.

•	 Provide training for park and refuge employees and partners on effects of climate 

change on resources, and on dissemination of climate change knowledge to the 

public.

•	 Support the development of region, park, 

or refuge-specific interpretive products on 

the impacts of climate change. 

•	 Incorporate climate change research and 

information in interpretive and education 

outreach programming.

•	 Distribute up-to-date interpretive products (e.g., the National Park Service-wide 

Climate Change in National Parks brochure).

•	 Develop climate change presentations for 

local civic organizations, user and partner 

conferences, national meetings, etc.

•	 Incorporate climate change questions and 

answers into Junior Ranger programs.

Park Service employees install 

solar panels at San Francisco 

Maritime National Historical 

Park (Top); At the National Mall, 

Park Service employees use 

clean-energy transportation to 

lead tours; NPS photos. 
National Park Service 17

The Climate Friendly Parks 

Program is a joint partnership 

between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the 

National Park Service. Climate 

Friendly Parks from around the 

country are leading the way in 

the effort to protect our parks’ 

natural and cultural resources 

and ensure their preservation 

for future generations; NPS image. 

•	 Help visitors make the connection between reducing greenhouse gas emissions 

and resource stewardship.

•	 Encourage visitors to use public or nonmotorized transportation to and around 

parks.

•	 Encourage visitors to reduce their carbon 

footprint in their daily lives and as part of 

their tourism experience.

Individuals can...

•	 In the park or refuge park their car and 

walk or bike. Use shuttles where available. 

Recycle and use refillable water bottles. 

Stay on marked trails to help further ecosystem restoration efforts.

•	 At home, walk, carpool, bike or use public transportation if possible. A full bus 

equates to 40 fewer cars on the road. 

When driving, use a fuel-efficient vehicle.

•	 Do not let cars idle - letting a car idle for 

just 20 seconds burns more gasoline than 

turning it off and on again.

•	 Replace incandescent bulbs in the five 

most frequently used light fixtures in the 

home with bulbs that have the ENERGY 

STAR® rating. If every household in the 

U.S. takes this one simple action we will 

prevent greenhouse gas emissions equivalent to the emissions from nearly 10 million cars, in addition to saving money on 

energy costs.

Reduce, Reuse, Recycle, Refuse

•	 Use products made from recycled paper, 

plastics and aluminum - these use 55-95% 

less energy than products made from 

scratch. 

•	 Purchase a travel coffee mug and a reusable water bottle to reduce use of disposable products (Starbucks uses more than 1 

billion paper cups a year). 

•	 Carry reusable bags instead of using paper 

or plastic bags. 

•	 Recycle drink containers, paper, newspapers, electronics, and other materials. Bring recyclables home for proper 

disposal when recycle bins are not available. Rather than taking old furniture and 

clothes to the dump, consider “recycling” 

them at a thrift store. 

•	 Keep an energy efficient home. Purchase 

ENERGY STAR® appliances, properly 

insulate windows, doors and attics, and 

lower the thermostat in the winter and 

raise it in the summer (even 1-2 degrees 

makes a big difference). Switch to green 

power generated from renewable energy 

sources such as wind, solar, or geothermal.

•	 Buy local goods and services that minimize 

emissions associated with transportation.

•	 Encourage others to participate in the actions listed above.

For more information on how you can reduce carbon emissions and engage in climatefriendly activities, check out these websites:

EPA- What you can do: http://www.epa.gov/

climatechange/wycd/index.html

NPS- Do Your Part! Program: http://www.

nps.gov/climatefriendlyparks/doyourpart.

html

US Forest Service Climate Change Program: 

http://www.fs.fed.us/climatechange/

United States Global Change Research Program: http://www.globalchange.gov/

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Climate change: 

http://www.fws.gov/home/climatechange/

“Humankind has not 

woven the web of life. 

We are but one thread 

within it. Whatever we 

do to the web, we do 

to ourselves. All things 

are bound together. 

All things connect.”

 —Chief Seattle
18 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

IV. Global Climate Change

The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental, international body established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 

and by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The information the IPCC provides in its reports is based on 

scientific evidence and reflects existing consensus viewpoints within the scientific community. The comprehensiveness of the 

scientific content is achieved through contributions from experts in all regions of the world and all relevant disciplines including, where appropriately documented, industry literature and traditional practices, and a two stage review process by experts 

and governments.

Definition of climate change: The IPCC defines climate change as a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g. 

using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and that persists for an extended period, 

typically decades or longer. All statements in this section are synthesized from the IPCC report unless otherwise noted.

A. Temperature and 

Greenhouse Gases

What scientists know...

•	 Warming of the Earth’s climate system is 

unequivocal, as evidenced from increased 

air and ocean temperatures, widespread 

melting of snow and ice, and rising global 

average sea level (Figure 1).

•	 In the last 100 years, global average surface 

temperature has risen about 0.74°C over 

the previous 100-year period, and the rate 

of warming has doubled from the previous 

century. Eleven of the 12 warmest years in 

the instrumental record of global surface 

temperature since 1850 have occurred 

since 1995 (Figure 1).

•	 Although most regions over the globe have 

experienced warming, there are regional 

variations: land regions have warmed faster than oceans and high northern latitudes 

have warmed faster than the tropics. Average Arctic temperatures have increased 

at almost twice the global rate in the past 

100 years, primarily because loss of snow 

and ice results in a positive feedback via 

increased absorption of sunlight by ocean 

waters (Figure 2).

•	 Over the past 50 years widespread changes 

in extreme temperatures have been observed, including a decrease in cold days 

and nights and an increase in the frequency of hot days, hot nights, and heat waves.

•	 Winter temperatures are increasing more 

rapidly than summer temperatures, particularly in the northern hemisphere, and 

Figure 1. Observed changes in (a) global average surface temperature; (b) 

global average sea level from tide gauge (blue) and satellite (red) data and (c) 

Northern Hemisphere snow cover for March-April. All differences are relative 

to corresponding averages for the period 1961-1990. Smoothed curves represent decadal averaged values while circles show yearly values. The shaded 

areas are the uncertainty intervals estimated from a comprehensive analysis of 

known uncertainties (a and b) and from the time series (c) (IPCC 2007a).
National Park Service 19

there has been an increase in the length 

of the frost-free period in mid- and highlatitude regions of both hemispheres.

•	 Climate change is caused by alterations in 

the energy balance within the atmosphere 

and at the Earth’s surface. Factors that 

affect Earth’s energy balance are the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse 

gases and aerosols, land surface properties, 

and solar radiation. 

•	 Global atmospheric concentrations of 

greenhouse gases have increased significantly since 1750 as the result of human 

activities. The principal greenhouse gases 

are carbon dioxide (CO2), primarily from 

fossil fuel use and land-use change; methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), primarily from agriculture; and halocarbons 

(a group of gases containing fluorine, chlorine or bromine), principally engineered 

chemicals that do not occur naturally.

•	 Direct measurements of gases trapped in 

ice cores demonstrate that current CO2

and CH4 concentrations far exceed the 

natural range over the last 650,000 years 

and have increased markedly (35% and 

148% respectively), since the beginning of 

the industrial era in 1750.

•	 Both past and future anthropogenic CO2 

emissions will continue to contribute to 

warming and sea level rise for more than 

a millennium, due to the time scales required for the removal of the gas from the 

atmosphere. 

Figure 2. Comparison of observed continental- and globalscale changes in surface temperature with results simulated 

by climate models using either 

natural or both natural and anthropogenic forcings. Decadal 

averages of observations are 

shown for the period 1906-2005 

(black line) plotted against the 

centre of the decade and relative to the corresponding average for the period 1901-1950. 

Lines are dashed where spatial 

coverage is less than 50%. Blue 

shaded bands show the 5 to 

95% range for 19 simulations 

from five climate models using 

only the natural forcings due 

to solar activity and volcanoes. 

Red shaded bands show the 5 

to 95% range for 58 simulations 

from 14 climate models using 

both natural and anthropogenic 

forcings (IPCC 2007a).
20 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

•	 Warming temperatures reduce oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2, increasing the 

fraction of anthropogenic emissions remaining in the atmosphere. This positive 

carbon cycle feedback results in increasingly greater accumulation of atmospheric 

CO2 and subsequently greater warming 

trends than would otherwise be present in 

the absence of a feedback relationship.

•	 There is very high confidence that the 

global average net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming.

•	 Scientific evidence shows that major and 

widespread climate changes have occurred with startling speed. For example, 

roughly half the north Atlantic warming 

during the last 20,000 years was achieved 

in only a decade, and it was accompanied 

by significant climatic changes across most 

of the globe (NRC 2008).

What scientists think is likely...

•	 Anthropogenic warming over the last 

three decades has likely had a discernible 

influence at the global scale on observed 

changes in many physical and biological 

systems. 

•	 Average temperatures in the Northern 

Hemisphere during the second half of the 

20th century were very likely higher than 

during any other 50-year period in the last 

500 years and likely the highest in at least 

the past 1300 years. 

•	 Most of the warming that has occurred 

since the mid-20th century is very likely 

due to increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations. Furthermore, 

it is extremely likely that global changes 

observed in the past 50 years can only be 

explained with external (anthropogenic) 

forcings (influences) (Figure 2). 

•	 There is much evidence and scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions will 

continue to grow under current climate 

change mitigation policies and development practices. For the next two decades 

a warming of about 0.2oC per decade is 

projected for a range of emissions scenarios; afterwards, temperature projections 

increasingly depend on specific emissions 

scenarios (Table 1). 

•	 It is very likely that continued greenhouse 

gas emissions at or above the current rate 

will cause further warming and result in 

changes in the global climate system that 

will be larger than those observed during 

the 20th century.

•	 It is very likely that hot extremes, heat 

waves and heavy precipitation events will 

become more frequent. As with current 

trends, warming is expected to be greatest 

over land and at most high northern latitudes, and least over the Southern Ocean 

(near Antarctica) and the northern North 

Atlantic Ocean.

What scientists think is possible...

•	 Global temperatures are projected to increase in the future, and the magnitude of 

temperature change depends on specific 

emissions scenarios, and ranges from a 

1.1oC to 6.4oC increase by 2100 (Table 1). 

Table 1. Projected global average surface warming at the 

end of the 21st century, adapted 

from (IPCC 2007b).

Notes: a) Temperatures are 

assessed best estimates and 

likely uncertainty ranges 

from a hierarchy of models of 

varying complexity as well as 

observational constraints. b) 

Temperature changes are expressed as the difference from 

the period 1980-1999. To express the change relative to the 

period 1850-1899 add 0.5°C. c) 

Year 2000 constant composition 

is derived from AtmosphereOcean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) only. 

Temperature Change (°C at 2090 – 2099 relative to 

1980 – 1999)a,b

Emissions Scenario Best Estimate Likely Range

Constant Year 2000 

Concentrationsa 0.6 0.3 – 0.9

B1 Scenario 1.8 1.1 – 2.9

B2 Scenario 2.4 1.4 – 3.8

A1B Scenario 2.8 1.7 – 4.4

A2 Scenario 3.4 2.0 – 5.4

A1F1 Scenario 4.0 2.4 – 6.4
National Park Service 21

Figure 3. Sea ice concentrations 

(the amount of ice in a given 

area) simulated by the GFDL 

CM2.1 global coupled climate 

model averaged over August, 

September and October (the 

months when Arctic sea ice concentrations generally are at a 

minimum). Three years (1885, 

1985 & 2085) are shown to illustrate the model-simulated 

trend. A dramatic reduction of 

summertime sea ice is projected, 

with the rate of decrease being 

greatest during the 21st century 

portion. The colors range from 

dark blue (ice free) to white 

(100% sea ice covered); Image 

courtesy of NOAA GFDL.

•	 Anthropogenic warming could lead to 

changes in the global system that are 

abrupt and irreversible, depending on the 

rate and magnitude of climate change.

•	 Roughly 20-30% of species around the 

globe could become extinct if global average temperatures increase by 2 to 3oC over 

pre-industrial levels.

B. Water, Snow, and Ice

What scientists know...

•	 Many natural systems are already being affected by increased temperatures, particularly those related to snow, ice, and frozen 

ground. Examples are decreases in snow 

and ice extent, especially of mountain glaciers; enlargement and increased numbers 

of glacial lakes; decreased permafrost extent; increasing ground instability in permafrost regions and rock avalanches in 

mountain regions; and thinner sea ice and 

shorter freezing seasons of lake and river 

ice (Figure 3).

•	 Annual average Arctic sea ice extent has 

shrunk by 2.7% per decade since 1978, and 

the summer ice extent has decreased by 

7.4% per decade. Sea ice extent during the 

2007 melt season plummeted to the lowest 

levels since satellite measurements began 

in 1979, and at the end of the melt season 

September 2007 sea ice was 39% below 

the long-term (1979-2000) average (NSIDC 

2008)(Figure 4).

•	 Global average sea level rose at an average 

rate of 1.8 mm per year from 1961 to 2003 

and at an average rate of 3.1 mm per year 

from 1993 to 2003. Increases in sea level 

since 1993 are the result of the following 

contributions: thermal expansion, 57%; 

melting glaciers and ice caps, 28%, melting 

polar ice sheets, 15%. 

•	 The CO2 content of the oceans increased 

by 118 ± 19 Gt (1 Gt = 109 tons) between 

A.D. 1750 (the end of the pre-industrial 

period) and 1994 as the result of uptake 

of anthropogenic CO2 emissions from the 

atmosphere, and continues to increase 

by about 2 Gt each year (Sabine et al. 

2004; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007). This 

Figure 4. Arctic sea ice in September 2007 (blue line) is far below the previous low 

record year of 2005 (dashed line), and was 39% below where we would expect to be 

in an average year (solid gray line). Average September sea ice extent from 1979 to 

2000 was 7.04 million square kilometers. The climatological minimum from 1979 to 

2000 was 6.74 million square kilometers (NSIDC 2008).
22 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

increase in oceanic CO2 has resulted in 

a 30% increase in acidity (a decrease in 

surface ocean pH by an average of 0.1 

units), with observed and potential severe 

negative consequences for marine organisms and coral reef formations (Orr et al. 

2005: McNeil and Matear 2007; Riebesell 

et al. 2009).

•	 Oceans are noisier due to ocean acidification reducing the ability of seawater 

to absorb low frequency sounds (noise 

from ship traffic and military activities). 

Low-frequency sound absorption has decreased over 10% in both the Pacific and 

Atlantic over the past 200 years. An assumed additional pH drop of 0.3 (due 

to anthropogenic CO2 emissions) accompanied with warming will lead to sound 

absorption below 1 kHz being reduced by 

almost half of current values (Hester et. al. 

2008).

•	 Even if greenhouse gas concentrations are 

stabilized at current levels thermal expansion of ocean waters (and resulting sea 

level rise) will continue for many centuries, 

due to the time required to transport heat 

into the deep ocean.

•	 Observations since 1961 show that the 

average global ocean temperature has increased to depths of at least 3000 meters, 

and that the ocean has been taking up 

over 80% of the heat added to the climate 

system.

•	 Hydrologic effects of climate change include increased runoff and earlier spring 

peak discharge in many glacier- and snowfed rivers, and warming of lakes and rivers. 

•	 Runoff is projected to increase by 10 to 

40% by mid-century at higher latitudes 

and in some wet tropical areas, and to decrease by 10 to 30% over some dry regions 

at mid-latitudes and dry tropics. Areas in 

which runoff is projected to decline face a 

reduction in the value of the services provided by water resources. 

•	 Precipitation increased significantly from 

1900 to 2005 in eastern parts of North 

and South America, northern Europe, and 

northern and central Asia. Conversely, 

precipitation declined in the Sahel, the 

Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts 

of southern Asia (Figure 5).

What scientists think is likely....

•	 Widespread mass losses from glaciers and 

reductions in snow cover are projected 

to accelerate throughout the 21st century, 

reducing water availability and changing 

seasonality of flow patterns.

•	 Model projections include contraction of 

snow cover area, widespread increases 

in depth to frost in permafrost areas, and 

Arctic and Antarctic sea ice shrinkage.

•	 The incidence of extreme high sea level 

has likely increased at a broad range of 

sites worldwide since 1975. 

•	 Based on current model simulations it is 

very likely that the meridional overturning 

circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic Ocean 

will slow down during the 21st century; 

nevertheless regional temperatures are 

predicted to increase. Large-scale and persistent changes in the MOC may result in 

changes in marine ecosystem productivity, 

Figure 5. Relative changes in 

precipitation (in percent) for 

the period 2090-2099, relative 

to 1980-1999. Values are multimodel averages based on the 

SRES A1B scenario for December 

to February (left) and June to 

August (right). White areas are 

where less than 66% of the 

models agree in the sign of the 

change and stippled areas are 

where more than 90% of the 

models agree in the sign of the 

change (IPCC 2007a).

December to February June to August
National Park Service 23

fisheries, ocean CO2 uptake, and terrestrial vegetation.

•	 Globally the area affected by drought has 

likely increased since the 1970s and the 

frequency of extreme precipitation events 

has increased over most areas.

•	 Future tropical cyclones (typhoons and 

hurricanes) are likely to become more 

intense, with larger peak wind speeds and 

increased heavy precipitation. Extra-tropical storm tracks are projected to move 

poleward, with consequent shifts in wind, 

precipitation, and temperature patterns.

•	 Increases in the amount of precipitation 

are very likely in high latitudes and decreases are likely in most subtropical land 

regions, continuing observed patterns 

(Figure 5).

•	 Increases in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in the coming century are 

very likely, resulting in potential damage 

to crops and property, soil erosion, surface and groundwater contamination, and 

increased risk of human death and injury.

What scientists think is possible...

•	 Arctic late-summer sea ice may disappear 

almost entirely by the end of the 21st century (Figure 3).

•	 Current global model studies project that 

the Antarctic ice sheet will remain too cold 

for widespread surface melting and gain 

mass due to increased snowfall. However, 

net loss of ice mass could occur if dynamical ice discharge dominates the ice sheet 

mass balance.

•	 Model-based projections of global average sea level rise at the end of the 21st 

century range from 0.18 to 0.59 meters, 

depending on specific emissions scenarios 

(Table 2). These projections may actually 

underestimate future sea level rise because 

they do not include potential feedbacks or 

full effects of changes in ice sheet flow. 

•	 Partial loss of ice sheets and/or the thermal 

expansion of seawater over very long time 

scales could result in meters of sea level 

rise, major changes in coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas, with greatest 

effects in river deltas and low-lying islands.

C. Vegetation and Wildlife

What scientists know...

•	 Temperature increases have affected Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems and predator 

species at high levels of the food web.

•	 Changes in water temperature, salinity, 

oxygen levels, circulation, and ice cover 

in marine and freshwater ecosystems have 

resulted in shifts in ranges and changes 

in algal, plankton, and fish abundance in 

high-latitude oceans; increases in algal and 

zooplankton abundance in high-latitude 

and high-altitude lakes; and range shifts 

and earlier fish migrations in rivers. 

•	 High-latitude (cooler) ocean waters are 

currently acidified enough to start dissolving pteropods; open water marine snails 

Table 2. Projected global average sea level rise at the end of 

the 21st century, adapted from 

IPCC 2007b.

Notes: a) Temperatures are assessed best estimates and likely 

uncertainty ranges from a hierarchy of models of varying complexity as well as observational 

constraints.

Emissions Scenario

Sea level rise 

(m at 2090 – 2099 relative to 1980 – 1999)

Model-based range (excluding future rapid 

dynamical changes in ice flow)

Constant Year 2000 

Concentrationsa 0.3 – 0.9

B1 Scenario 1.1 – 2.9

B2 Scenario 1.4 – 3.8

A1B Scenario 1.7 – 4.4

A2 Scenario 2.0 – 5.4

A1F1 Scenario 2.4 – 6.4
24 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

which are one of the primary food sources 

of young salmon and mackerel (Fabry et al. 

2008, Feely et al. 2008). In lower latitude 

(warmer) waters, by the end of this century Humboldt squid’s metabolic rate will 

be reduced by 31% and activity levels by 

45% due to reduced pH, leading to squid 

retreating at night to shallower waters to 

feed and replenish oxygen levels (Rosa 

and Seibel 2008). 

•	 A meta-analysis of climate change effects 

on range boundaries in Northern Hemisphere species of birds, butterflies, and 

alpine herbs shows an average shift of 6.1 

kilometers per decade northward (or 6.1 

meters per decade upward), and a mean 

shift toward earlier onset of spring events 

(frog breeding, bird nesting, first flowering, 

tree budburst, and arrival of migrant butterflies and birds) of 2.3 days per decade 

(Parmesan and Yohe 2003).

•	 Poleward range shifts of individual species 

and expansions of warm-adapted communities have been documented on all continents and in most of the major oceans of 

the world (Parmesan 2006).

•	 Satellite observations since 1980 indicate 

a trend in many regions toward earlier 

greening of vegetation in the spring linked 

to longer thermal growing seasons resulting from recent warming.

•	 Over the past 50 years humans have 

changed ecosystems more rapidly and extensively than in any previous period of 

human history, primarily as the result of 

growing demands for food, fresh water, 

timber, fiber, and fuel. This has resulted in 

a substantial and largely irreversible loss of 

Earth’s biodiversity 

•	 Although the relationships have not been 

quantified, it is known that loss of intact ecosystems results in a reduction in 

ecosystem services (clean water, carbon 

sequestration, waste decomposition, crop 

pollination, etc.).

What scientists think is likely...

•	 The resilience of many ecosystems is likely 

to be exceeded this century by an unprecedented combination of climate change, 

associated disturbance (flooding, drought, 

wildfire, insects, ocean acidification) and 

other global change drivers (land use 

change, pollution, habitat fragmentation, 

invasive species, resource over-exploitation) (Figure 6). 

•	 Exceedance of ecosystem resilience may 

be characterized by threshold-type responses such as extinctions, disruption of 

ecological interactions, and major changes 

in ecosystem structure and disturbance 

regimes.

•	 Net carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is likely to peak before mid-century 

and then weaken or reverse, amplifying 

climate changes. By 2100 the terrestrial 

biosphere is likely to become a carbon 

source.

•	 Increases in global average temperature 

above 1.5 to 2.5°C and concurrent atmospheric CO2 concentrations are projected 

to result in major changes in ecosystem 

structure and function, species’ ecological interactions, and species’ geographical 

ranges. Negative consequences are projected for species biodiversity and ecosystem goods and services.

•	 Model projections for increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global 

temperatures significantly exceed values 

for at least the past 420,000 years, the 

period during which more extant marine 

organisms evolved. Under expected 21st

century conditions it is likely that global 

warming and ocean acidification will compromise carbonate accretion, resulting in 

less diverse reef communities and failure 

of some existing carbonate reef structures. 

Climate changes will likely exacerbate local stresses from declining water quality and overexploitation of key species 

(Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2007).

•	 Ecosystems likely to be significantly impacted by changing climatic conditions 

include:

i. Terrestrial – tundra, boreal forest, and 

mountain regions (sensitivity to warming); Mediterranean-type ecosystems 

and tropical rainforests (decreased 

rainfall)
National Park Service 25

Figure 6. Examples of impacts associated with projected global average surface warming. Upper panel: Illustrative examples of global 

impacts projected for climate changes (and sea level and atmospheric CO2 where relevant) associated with different amounts of increase 

in global average surface temperature in the 21st century. The black lines link impacts; broken-line arrows indicate impacts continuing with 

increasing temperature. Entries are placed so that the left-hand side of text indicates the approximate level of warming that is associated 

with the onset of a given impact. Quantitative entries for water scarcity and flooding represent the additional impacts of climate change 

relative to the conditions projected across the range of SRES scenarios A1FI, A2, B1 and B2. Adaptation to climate change is not included 

in these estimations. Confidence levels for all statements are high. Lower panel: Dots and bars indicate the best estimate and likely ranges 

of warming assessed for the six SRES marker scenarios for 2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999 (IPCC 2007a).
26 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

ii. Coastal – mangroves and salt marshes 

(multiple stresses) 

iii. Marine – coral reefs (multiple stresses); 

sea-ice biomes (sensitivity to warming)

What scientists think is possible...

•	 Approximately 20% to 30% of plant and 

animal species assessed to date are at increased risk of extinction with increases in 

global average temperature in excess of 1.5 

to 2.5°C.

•	 Endemic species may be more vulnerable 

to climate changes, and therefore at higher 

risk for extinction, because they may have 

evolved in locations where paleo-climatic 

conditions have been stable.

•	 Although there is great uncertainty about 

how forests will respond to changing 

climate and increasing levels of atmospheric CO2, the factors that are most 

typically predicted to influence forests 

are increased fire, increased drought, and 

greater vulnerability to insects and disease 

(Brown 2008).

•	 If atmospheric CO2 levels reach 450 ppm 

(projected to occur by 2030–2040 at the 

current emissions rates), reefs may experience rapid and terminal decline worldwide from multiple climate change-related 

direct and indirect effects including mass 

bleaching, ocean acidification, damage to 

shallow reef communities,reduction of 

biodiversity, and extinctions. (Veron et al. 

2009). At atmospheric CO2 levels of 560 

ppmv, calcification of tropical corals is expected to decline by 30%, and loss of coral 

structure in areas of high erosion may 

outpace coral growth. With unabated CO2 

emissions, 70% of the presently known 

reef locations (including cold-water corals) will be in corrosive waters by the end 

of this century (Riebesell, et al. 2009).

D. Disturbance

What scientists know...

•	 Climate change currently contributes to 

the global burden of disease and premature death through exposure to extreme 

events and changes in water and air quality, food quality and quantity, ecosystems, 

agriculture, and economy (Parry et al. 

2007).

•	 The most vulnerable industries, settlements, and societies are generally those 

in coastal and river flood plains, those 

whose economies are closely linked with 

climate-sensitive resources, and those in 

areas prone to extreme weather events. 

•	 By 2080-2090 millions more people than 

today are projected to experience flooding 

due to sea level rise, especially those in the 

low-lying megadeltas of Asia and Africa 

and on small islands.

•	 Climate change affects the function and 

operation of existing water infrastructure 

and water management practices, aggravating the impacts of population growth, 

changing economic activity, land-use 

change, and urbanization.

What scientists think is likely...

•	 Up to 20% of the world’s population will 

live in areas where river flood potential 

could increase by 2080-2090, with major 

consequences for human health, physical 

infrastructure, water quality, and resource 

availability.

•	 The health status of millions of people is 

projected to be affected by climate change, 

through increases in malnutrition; increased deaths, disease, and injury due to 

extreme weather events; increased burden 

of diarrheal diseases; increased cardiorespiratory disease due to higher concentrations of ground-level ozone in urban 

areas; and altered spatial distribution of 

vector-borne diseases.

•	 Risk of hunger is projected to increase at 

lower latitudes, especially in seasonally 

dry and tropical regions.

What scientists think is possible...

•	 Although many diseases are projected to 

increase in scope and incidence as the 

result of climate changes, lack of appropriate longitudinal data on climate changerelated health impacts precludes definitive 

assessment.
National Park Service 27

V. References

ACIA (2004). Impacts of a warming Arctic: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, Cambridge University Press.

Aðalgeirsdóttir, G., K. A. Echelmeyer, and W.D. Harrison. (1998). “Elevation and volume changes 

on the Harding Icefield, Alaska.” Journal of Glaciology 44(148): 570-582. 

Adema, G. W., R. D. Karpilo Jr., and B.F. Molnia. (2007). Melting Denali: Effects of Climate 

Change on the Glaciers of Denali National Park and Preserve. Alaska Park Science: Scientific Studies on Climate Change in Alaska’s National Parks. M. Shah. Anchorage, AK, 

National Park Service. 6, Issue 1: 12-17.

Alaska Climate Research Center, Geophysical Institute. (2009). “Temperature Change in Alaska.” 

(December 1, 2009; http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/ClimTrends/Change/TempChange.

html).

Amelung, B., S. Nicholls, and D. Viner. (2007). “Implications of global climate change for tourism 

flows and seasonality.” Journal of Travel Research 45(3): 285.

Arendt, A. A., K. A. Echelmeyer, W. D. Harrison, C. S. Lingle and V. B. Valentine. (2002). “Rapid 

Wastage of Alaska Glaciers and Their Contribution to Rising Sea Level.” Science 297: 

382–386.

Arendt, A. A., S. B. Luthcke, C.F. Larsen, W. Abdalati, W.B. Krabill and M.J. Beedle. (2008). 

“Validation of high-resolution GRACE mascon estimates of glacier mass changes in the 

St Elias Mountains, Alaska, USA, using aircraft laser altimetry.” Journal of Glaciology 

54(188): 778-787.

Berg, E. E., J. D. Henry, C.L. Fastie, A.D. De Volder and S.M. Matsuoka. (2006). “Spruce beetle 

outbreaks on the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, and Kluane National Park and Reserve, Yukon 

Territory : Relationship to summer temperatures and regional differences in disturbance 

regimes.” Forest ecology and management 227(3): 219-232.

Berman, M. and G. Kofinas (2004). “Hunting for models: grounded and rational choice approaches to analyzing climate effects on subsistence hunting in an Arctic community.” 

Ecological Economics 49: 31-46.

Boucher, T., C. Lindsay, and A. E. Miller. (2009). From ice to alder: characterizing a half halfcentury of vegetation change in Kenai Fjords National Park. Southwest Alaska Network 

Biennial Long-term Monitoring Symposium, Seward, AK.

Boucher, T., L. Trummer, M. Shephard and K. Boggs. (2009). Alder Mortality in Katmai National 

Park and Preserve. Southwest Alaska Network Biennial Long-term Monitoring Symposium, Seward, AK.

Brown, R. 2008. The implications of climate change for conservation, restoration, and management of National Forest lands. National Forest Restoration Collaborative.

Burkett, V. R., D. A. Wilcox, R. Stottlemyer, W. Barrow, D. Fagre, J. Baron, J. Price, J. L. Nielsen, 

C. D. Allen, D. L. Peterson, G. Ruggerone and T. Doyle. (2005). “Nonlinear dynamics in 

ecosystem response to climatic change: Case studies and policy implications.” Ecological Complexity 2: 357-394.
28 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

Burns, C. E., K. M. Johnston and O.J. Schmitz. (2003). “Global climate change and mammalian 

species diversity in U.S. national parks.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100(20): 11474-11477.

Callaway, D. (2007). “A Changing Climate: Consequences for Subsistence Communities.” Alaska Park Science 6(1): 19-23. 

Callaway, D. (1999). Effects of Climate Change on Subsistence Communities in Alaska. Assessing 

the Consequences of Climate Change for Alaska and the Bering Sea Region. G. Weller 

and P. A. Anderson. Fairbanks, U.S. Global Change Research Program, National Science 

Foundation, U.S. Department of Interior, International Arctic Science Committee: 16.

Chen, J. L., B. D. Tapley and C.R. Wilson. (2006). “Alaskan mountain glacial melting observed by 

satellite gravimetry.” Earth and Planetary Science Letters 248: 368-378.

Cooper, L. W., I. L. Larsen, T. M. O’Hara, S. Dolvin, V. Woshner and G. F. Cota (2000). “Radionuclide Contaminant Burdens in Arctic Marine Mammals Harvested During Subsistence 

Hunting.” Arctic 53(2): 174–182.

Cusick, J. and A. Bennett (2005). Morphological Shoreline Changes along the Lake Clark National Park-Cook Inlet Coast, 1992-2004. Southwest Alaska Network, National Park 

Service. Anchorage, AK: 19.

Dale, V. H., L. A. Joyce, S. McNulty, R. P. Neilson, M. P. Ayres, M. D. Flannigan, P. J. Hanson, L. 

C. Irland, A. E. Lugo, C. J. Peterson, D. Simberloff, F. J. Swanson, B. J. Stocks and B. M. 

Wotton (2001). “Climate change and forest disturbances.” BioScience 51(9): 723-734.

Dehn, L.-A., E. H. Follmann, D. L. Thomas, G. G. Sheffield, C. Rosa, L. K. Duffy and T. M. O’Hara. 

(2006). “Trophic relationships in an Arctic food web and implications for trace metal 

transfer.” Science of the Total Environment 362: 103-123.

Dixon, E. J., C. M. Lee, W. F. Manley, R. A. Warden and W. D. Harrison. (2007). The Frozen Past 

of Wrangell- St. Elias National Park and Preserve. Alaska Park Science: Scientific Studies 

on Climate Change in Alaska’s National Parks. M. Shah. Anchorage, AK, The National 

Park Service. 6, Issue 1: 24-29.

Drew, G. S., J. F. Piatt and J. L. Bodkin. (2007). Population status and trends of marine birds and 

mammals in Glacier Bay National Park. Proceedings of the Fourth Glacier Bay Science 

Symposium, October 26–28, 2004: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5047. J. F. Piatt and S. M. Gende: 129-132.

Dye, D. G. (2002). “Variability and trends in the annual snow-cover cycle in Northern Hemisphere 

land areas, 1972–2000.” Hydrological Processes 16: 3065–3077.

Dyurgerov, M. B. and M. F. Meier (2000). “Twentieth century climate change: Evidence from 

small glaciers.” PNAS 97(4): 1406–1411.

Fabry, V.J., J.B. McClintock, J.T. Mathis, and J.M. Grebmeier (2009). “Ocean Acidification at High 

Latitudes: The Bellweather.”Oceanography 22(4):160–171. 

Field, C. B., L. D. Mortsch, M. Brklacich, D. L. Forbes, P. Kovacs, J. A. Patz, S. W. Running and 

M. J. Scott (2007). North America. Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and 

vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. M. L. Parry, O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, 

P. J. v. d. Linden and C. E. Hanson. Cambridge, UK, IPCC: 617-652.
National Park Service 29

Hamann, A. and T. Wang (2006). “Potential Effects of Climate Change on Ecosystem and Tree 

Species Distribution in British Columbia.” Ecology 87(11): 2773-2786.

Hartmann, B. and G. Wendler (2005). “The Significance of the 1976 Pacific Climate Shift in the 

Climatology of Alaska.” Journal of Climate 18: 4824-4839.

Hennon, P., D.D’Amore, D. Wittwer, A. Johnson, P. Schaberg, G. Hawley, C. Beier, S. Sink and 

G. Judayl. (2006). “Climate warming, reduced snow, and freezing injury could explain 

the demise of Yellow-cedar in southeast Alaska, USA.” World Resource Review 18(2): 

427-450.

Hester, K. C., E. T. Peltzer, W. J. Kirkwood and P. G. Brewer. (2008). “Unanticipated consequences 

of ocean acidification: A noisier ocean at lower pH.” Geophysical Research Letters 35: 

L19601.

Hoegh-Guldberg, O., P. J. Mumby, A. J. Hooten, R. S. Steneck, P. Greenfield, E. Gomez, C. D. 

Harvell, P. F. Sale, A. J. Edwards, and K. Caldeira. 2007. Coral reefs under rapid climate 

change and ocean acidification. Science 318:1737.

Hood, E. and L. Berner (2009). “Effects of changing glacial coverage on the physical and biogeochemical properties of coastal streams in southeastern Alaska.” Journal of Geophysical 

Research 114: G03001.

Hood, E. and S. Durelle (2008). “Riverine organic matter and nutrients in southeast Alaska affected by glacial coverage.” Nature Geoscience 1: 583-587.

Humphries, M. M., D. W. Thomas and J. R. Speakman. (2002). “Climate-mediated energetic 

constraints on the distribution of hibernating mammals.” Nature 418: 313-316.

IPCC. 2007a. Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II, and 

III to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 

[Core Writing Team, Pachauri, R.K and Reisinger, A. (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 

104 pp.

IPCC. 2007b. Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group 

I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

[Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and 

H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New 

York, NY, USA, 996 pp.

Jorgenson, M. T. and A. J. Bennett (2006). Photographic Monitoring of Landscape Change in 

the Southwest Alaska Network of National Parklands, 2006, ABR, Inc.–Environmental 

Research & Services, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Juday, G. P. (1998) “Spruce Beetles, Budworms, and Climate Warming.” Global Glimpses. Volume 6, No. 1, April 1998. http://www.cgc.uaf.edu/Newsletter/gg6_1/beetles.html). 6.

Juday, G. P., V. Barber, P. Duffy, H. Linderholm, S. Rupp, S. Sparrow, E. Vaganov and J. Yarie. 

(2007). Forests, Land Management, and Agriculture. Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 

Scientific Report. L. Arris. Fairbanks, Alaska, ACIA Secretariat and Cooperative Institute 

for Arctic Research, University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Kelly, B. P., T. Ainsworth, D. A. Boyce Jr., E. Hood, P. Murphy and J. Powell. (2007). Climate 

change: Predicted impacts on Juneau. Juneau, AK, Report to: Mayor Bruce Botelho and 

the City and Borough of Juneau Assembly: 86.
30 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

Keyser, A. R., J. S. Kimball, R. R. Nemani and S. W. Running. (2000). “Simulating the effects of 

climate change on the carbon balance of North American high-latitude forests.” Global 

Change Biology 6 (Suppl. 1): 185-195.

Klein, E., E. E. Berg, R. Dial. (2005). “Wetland drying and succession across the Kenai Peninsula 

Lowlands, south-central Alaska.” Candian Journal of Forest Research 35: 1931-1941.

Kocan, R., P. Hershberger, J. Winton. (2004). “Ichthyophoniasis: an emerging disease of Chinook 

salmon in the Yukon River.” Journal of Aquatic Animal Health 16(2): 58-72.

Kuletz, K. J., S. W. Stephensen, D. B. Irons, E. A. Labunski and K. M. Brenneman. (2003). 

“Changes in distribution and abundance of Kittlitz’s Murrelets Brachyramphus brevirostris relative to glacial recession in Prince William Sound, Alaska.” Marine Ornithology 

31: 133-140.

Kyle, R. E. and T. P. Brabets (2001). Water Temperature of Streams in the Cook Inlet Basin, Alaska, 

and Implications of Climate Change: U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations: 24.

Lamb, M., T. Wurtz, H. Buchholdt, R. Burnside, C. Frank, P. Hennon, C. Knight, J. Kruse, J. Lundquist, S. Patterson, M. Rasy, M. Schultz, L. Trummer, D. Wittwer, L. Zaumseil and K. 

Zogas. (2009). Forest health conditions in Alaska – 2008. M. Lamb and T. Wurtz, USDA 

Forest Service, Alaska Region. Report R10-PR20: 98.

Larsen, C. F., R. J. Motyka, A. A. Arendt, K. A. Echelmeyer and P. E. Geissler. (2007a). “Glacier 

changes in southeast Alaska and northwest British Columbia and contribution to sea 

level rise.” Journal of Geophysical Research 112: F01007.

Larsen, P., S. Goldsmith, O. Smith, M. Wilson, K. Strzepek, P. Chinowsky and B. Saylor. (2007b). 

Estimating Future Costs for Alaska Public Infrastructure At Risk from Climate Change. 

Anchorage, Alaska, Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage.

Leiserowitz, A. and J. Craciun (2006). Alaskan Opinions on Global Warming No. 06-10. Eugene, 

Decision Research.

Loso, M. G., R. S. Anderson, D. F. Doak and S. P. Anderson (2007). “A Disappearing Lake Reveals 

the Little Ice Age History of Climate and Glacier Response in the Icefields of Wrangell-St. 

Elias National Park and Preserve.” Alaska Park Science 6(1): 31-35.

Lucht, W., I. C. Prentice, R. B. Myneni, S. Sitch, P. Friedlingstein, W. Cramer, P. Bousquet, W. 

Buermann and B. Smith. (2002). “Climatic Control of the High-Latitude Vegetation 

Greening Trend and Pinatubo Effect.” Science 296: 1687-1689.

Mathews, E. A. and G. W. Pendleton (2007). Declines in a harbor seal population in a marine 

reserve, Glacier Bay, Alaska, 1992–2002. Proceedings of the Fourth Glacier Bay Science 

Symposium, October 26–28, 2004: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5047. J. F. Piatt and S. M. Gende: 137-140.

McNeil, B. I. and R. J. Matear. (2007). Climate change feedbacks on future oceanic acidification. 

Tellus 59B: 191–198.

Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi and D. Nychka. (2004). “Changes in frost days in simulations of twentyfirst century climate.” Climate Dynamics 23: 495–511.
National Park Service 31

Meier, M. F., M. B. Dyurgerov, U. K. Rick, S. O’Neel, W. T. Pfeffer, R. S. Anderson, S. P. Anderson 

and A. F. Glazovsky. (2007). “Glaciers Dominate Eustatic Sea-Level Rise in the 21st Century.” Science 317: 1064-1067.

Milner, A. M., E. E. Knudsen, C. Soiseth, A. L. Robertson, D. Schell, I. T. Phillips and K. Magnusson. (2000). “Colonization and development of stream communities across a 200-year 

gradient in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska, U.S.A.” Canadian Journal of Fisheries and 

Aquatic Sciences 57: 2319–2335.

Molnia, B. F. (2007). “Late nineteenth to early twenty-first century behavior of Alaskan glaciers 

as indicators of changing regional climate “ Global and Planetary Change 56(1-2): 23-

56.

Molnia, B. F., Ed. (2008). Satellite Image Atlas of Glaciers: Alaska. Satellite Image Atlas of the 

Glaciers of the World, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1386–K.

Motyka, R. J., C. F. Larsen, J. T. Freymueller and K. A. Echelmeyer. (2007). “Post Little Ice Age 

Glacial Rebound in Glacier Bay National Park and Surrounding Areas.” Alaska Park Science 6(1): 37-41.

Mueter, F. J. and M. A. Litzow (2008). “Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea 

continental shelf.” Ecological Applications 18: 309-320.

NABCI (2010). The State of the Birds 2010 Report on Climate Change United States. The State 

of the Birds. A. F. King. Washington, DC, Department of the Interior, North American 

Bird Conservation Initiative.

NRC. 2008. Ecological impacts of climate change. The National Academies Press, Washington, 

D.C. 

NSIDC. 2008. National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Niven, D. K. and G. S. Butcher (2008). “Northward Shifts in the Abundance of North American 

Birds in Early Winter: A Response to Warmer Winter Temperatures,” Audubon.

Orr, J. C., V. J. Fabry, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, S. C. Doney, R. A. Feely, A. Gnanadesikan, N. Gruber, 

A. Ishida and F. Joos. (2005). Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first 

century and its impact on calcifying organisms. Nature 437(29): 681-686.

Parmesan, C. (2006). “Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change.” Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 37: 637-669.

Parmesan, C. and G. Yohe (2003). “A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts 

across natural systems.” Nature 421: 37-42.

Parry, M. L., O. F. Canziani, J. P. Palutikof, and Co-authors (2007): Technical Summary. Climate 

Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group 

II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 

M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 23-78.

Pendleton, E. A., E. R. Thieler and S. J. Williams. (2006). Relative Coastal Change-Potential Assessment of Kenai Fjords National Park. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2004-

1373, Web Only.
32 Climate Change Talking Points NPS/FWS—2010

Racine, C., R. Jandt, C. Meyers and J. Dennis. (2004). “Tundra Fire and Vegetation Change 

along a Hillslope on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska, U.S.A.” Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine 

Research 36(1): 1-10.

Reed, B., M. Budde, P. Spencer and A. E. Miller. (2009). “Integration of MODIS-derived metrics 

to assess interannual variability in snowpack, lake ice, and NDVI in southwest Alaska.” 

Remote Sensing of Environment 113: 1443–1452.

Riebesell, U., A. Kortzinger and A. Oschlies. (2009). Sensitivities of marine carbon fluxes to ocean 

change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106(49): 20602–20609.

Root, T. L., J. Price, K. R. Hall, S. H. Schneider, C. Rosenzweig and A. J. Pounds. (2003). “Fingerprints of global warming on wild animals and plants.” Nature 421: 57-60.

Rosa, R. and B.A. Seibel. (2008). Synergistic effects of climate-related variables suggest future 

physiological impairment in a top oceanic predator. PNAS 105(52): 20776-20780.

Rupp, S., F. S. Chapin III and A. M. Starfield. (2000). “Response of subarctic vegetation to transient climatic change on the Seward Peninsula in north-west Alaska.” Global Change 

Biology 6(5): 541-555.

Rupp, S. and W. Loya (2009a). Projected climate change scenarios for Aniakchak National 

Monument and Preserve. Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. University of Alaska 

Fairbanks.

—.(2009b). Projected climate change scenarios for Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve. Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. University of Alaska Fairbanks.

—.(2009c). Projected climate change scenarios for Katmai National Park and Preserve. Scenarios 

Network for Alaska Planning. University of Alaska Fairbanks.

—.(2009d). Projected climate change scenarios for Kenai Fjords National Park. Scenarios Network 

for Alaska Planning. University of Alaska Fairbanks.

—.(2009e). Projected climate change scenarios for Klondike Gold Rush National Historical Park. 

Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. University of Alaska Fairbanks.

—.(2009f). Projected climate change scenarios for Lake Clark National Park and Preserve. Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. , University of Alaska Fairbanks.

—.(2009g). Projected climate change scenarios for Sitka National Historical Park. Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. University of Alaska Fairbanks.

—.(2009h). Projected climate change scenarios for Wrangell-St.Elias National Park and Preserve. 

Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. University of Alaska Fairbanks.

Ryan, M. G., S. R. Archer, R. Birdsey, C. Dahm, L. Heath, J. Hicke, D. Hollinger, T. Huxman, G. 

Okin, R. Oren, J. Randerson and W. Schlesinger. (2008). Land Resources. The effects 

of climate change on agriculture, land resources, water resources, and biodiversity in 

the United States. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, DC, USA: 362.

Sabine, C. L., R. A. Feely, N. Gruber, R. M. Key, K. Lee, J. L. Bullister, R. Wanninkhof, C. S. Wong, 

D. W. R. Wallace, B. Tilbrook, F. J. Millero, T.-H. Peng, A. Kozyr, T. Ono and A. F. Rios. 

(2004). The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2. 2004 305: 367-371.
National Park Service 33

Sauber, J. M. and B. F. Molnia (2004). “Glacier ice mass fluctuations and fault instability in tectonically active Southern Alaska.” Global and Planetary Change 42(1-4): 279-293.

Scenarios Network for Alaska Planning. (2010a). “Community Charts: King Salmon.” (January 

25, 2010; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/community-charts?c=king-salmon).

—.(2009b). “Community Charts: Seward.” (January 5 2010; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/community-charts?c=seward).

Smith, O. P. and G. Levasseur (2003). Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Infrastructure in Alaska. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation, U.S. Department of Transportation Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting.

Stafford, J. M., G. Wendler, J. Curtis. (2000). “Temperature and precipitation of Alaska: 50 year 

trend analysis.” Theoretical and Applied Climatology 67: 33-44.

Taylor, S. G. (2008). “Climate warming causes phenological shift in Pink Salmon, Oncorhynchus 

gorbuscha, behavior at Auke Creek, Alaska.” Global Change Biology 14(2): 229-235.

Trainor, S. F., J. E. Walsh, and G. Yu (2010). “Towards Predicting the Impact of Climate Change 

on Tourism: An Hourly Tourism Climate Index.” Alaska Park Science 8(2): 106-109.

USFWS. (2006). “Kittlitz’s Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris.” Alaska Seabird Information 

Series, (December 7, 2009; http://alaska.fws.gov/mbsp/mbm/seabirds/pdf/kimu.pdf).

Vanlooy, J., R. Forster, A. Ford. (2006). “Accelerating thinning of Kenai Peninsula glaciers.” Geophysical Research Letters 33(L21307).

Walther, G. R., E. Post, P. Convey, A. Menzel, C. Parmesan, T. J. C. Beebee, J. M. Fromentin, 

O. Hoegh-Guldberg and F. Bairlein. (2002). “Ecological responses to recent climate 

change.” Nature 416: 389-395.

Womble, J. N., G. W. Pendleton, E. A. Mathews, G. M. Blundell, N. M. Bool, S. M. Gende. (2010 

in press). “Harbor seal (Phoca vitulina richardii) decline continues in the rapidly changing landscape of Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska 1992–2008.” Marine Mammal Science 26.

Yom-Tov, Y. and J. Yom-Tov (2005). “Global warming, Bergmann’s rule and body size in the 

masked shrew Sorex cinereus Kerr in Alaska.” Journal of Animal Ecology 74(5): 803-

808.
The Department of the Interior protects and manages the nation’s natural resources and cultural heritage; provides 

scientific and other information about those resources; and honors its special responsibilities to American Indians, 

Alaska Natives, and affiliated Island Communities.

NPS 953/104613, July 2010 
National Park Service

U.S. Department of the Interior

Natural Resource Program Center 

1201 Oakridge Drive, Suite 200 

Fort Collins, Colorado 80525

www.nature.nps.gov

E X P E R I E N C E Y O U R A M E R I C A TM