Exploratory Advanced Research . . . Next Generation Transportation Solutions

The Exploratory Advanced Research Program Fact Sheet

Atransit system capable of taking travelers all the way from their 

point of origin to their final destination 

could revolutionize transit use. “Effects 

of Automated Transit and Pedestrian/

Bicycling Facilities on Urban Travel 

Patterns,” is a Federal Highway 

Administration (FHWA) Exploratory 

Advanced Research (EAR) Program 

study, awarded to the University of 

Michigan, aimed at assessing the 

demand for an innovative transit shuttle 

service using automated vehicles.

Innovative Neighborhood Transit 

Assessing Demand for an Automated Community Shuttle Service

Addressing Transit Problems

The need to deliver travelers all the way from 

their point of origin to their destination is a 

common transit problem in the United States. 

Known as the last mile, the problem is thought 

to deter transit use among riders with auto 

access, even when high-quality transit service is 

provided for the majority of the trip distance.

This study examines whether an automated 

community shuttle service would encourage 

drivers to shift transportation mode. The 

research explores demand for a high-frequency 

shuttle service, operating every few minutes, 

between homes and regional transit access 

points. Additionally, several other factors that 

could encourage drivers to shift commute 

modes are examined as part of this study. These 

include bike lanes, walkway improvements, and 

other community amenities designed to 

improve the quality of the community 

environment and attract drivers to walk and 

bike to the regional transit access points.

The major challenge of this study was to 

analyze the potential use of a new type of 

transit service. Since the service does not yet 

exist, there was no prior experience directly 

applicable. The project team chose to develop 

new transportation demand models and a 

corresponding innovative data collection 

approach that could elicit people’s opinions 

about a transit service that they had never 

experienced.

Data Collection

The study focused on four neighborhoods in 

metropolitan Chicago, IL, an area with a 

significant regional rapid transit network and 

room to grow further in terms of transit use. 

The neighborhoods all had similar access to the 

Chicago Transportation Authority (CTA) 

elevated and subway system but represented 

significantly different combinations of affluence 

and density. For example, Evanston was chosen 

for its higher income and higher density; Skokie 

was chosen for its higher income but lower 

density; Pilsen was chosen for its lower income 

and higher density; and Cicero was chosen for 

its lower income and lower density.

Conducting Surveys

Over 150 households were surveyed in each of 

these Chicago neighborhoods, with all 

respondents living within 1.5 mi (2.4 km) of a 

CTA rapid transit station and working within 3 

mi (4.8 km) of a station. The survey was 

designed to incorporate current travel patterns 

and a respondent’s stated preference after a 

hypothetical implementation of the 

improvements was described to them utilizing 

text and imaginative graphics based upon 

photographs of their own neighborhood. The 
service was described in functional terms only 

and centered on the frequency of arrivals to 

avoid any adverse reactions to the unfamiliar 

concept of an automated transit shuttle service. 

This survey was used as the basis of estimation 

of an activity-based model of mode choice in 

the areas studied.

Modeling Commuters

An agent-based model was used to represent the 

commuters and their preferences for different 

aspects of transportation—primarily cost, time, 

and safety. Commuters within the model assess 

their transportation options in light of their 

preferences, the characteristics of the 

environments, and the various modes available to 

them. The model was calibrated with data from 

the four neighborhoods and implemented on a 

stylized version of each neighborhood. Parameters 

from the activity-based model were incorporated 

into the agent-based model and simulations were 

run on the basis of this combined model.

Simulation Results

The transportation mode choices were modeled 

with and without neighborhood shuttles and a 

set of urban amenities. Results showed that 

deploying the neighborhood shuttle in 

combination with bike lanes reduced driving up 

to 52 percent, predominantly in the more autoorientated neighborhoods of Cicero and Skokie. 

Auto-use reductions were shown to be lower in 

areas with greater transit use to begin with, 

specifically Pilsen and Evanston. Train use 

increased up to 117 percent, predominantly in 

Skokie and Cicero. Overall results suggested 

that community transit could decrease car share 

from 36 to 22 percent across all the 

neighborhoods and increase CTA rapid transit 

share from 50 to 67 percent of these trips. 

Further Investigation

Further research is needed to refine the 

models and eventually replicate the study in 

other communities and situations, including 

areas farther than 1.5 mi (2.4 km) from regional 

transit access points. Additionally, field tests 

of community shuttle services would be 

needed in multiple communities to validate 

the demand shifts predicted by the models 

in this initial study.

“This study enables us to assess the demand 

for an innovative transit shuttle service that 

could possibly be established through the use 

of automated vehicles,” explains Robert Ferlis 

at FHWA. “Such a system could lead to a 

dramatic change in transportation commuting 

patterns, specifically moving from driving to 

transit use.” 

Learn More

For more information on the University of Michigan 

project, contact Robert Ferlis at FHWA, 202-493-3268 

(email: robert.ferlis@dot.gov). 

Publication No. 

FHWA-HRT-14-046

HRTM-30/02-14(1M)E

Innovative Neighborhood Transit 

Assessing Demand for an Automated Community Shuttle Service

Image other side: 

Image scenario developed 

by the project research 

team at the University of 

Michigan.

What Is the Exploratory 

Advanced Research Program?

FHWA’s Exploratory Advanced Research 

(EAR) Program focuses on long-term, highrisk research with a high payoff potential. 

The program addresses underlying gaps 

faced by applied highway research 

programs, anticipates emerging issues 

with national implications, and reflects 

broad transportation industry goals and 

objectives. 

To learn more about the EAR Program, 

visit the Exploratory Advanced Research 

Web site at www.fhwa.dot.gov/

advancedresearch. The site features 

information on research solicitations, 

updates on ongoing research, links to 

published materials, summaries of past 

EAR Program events, and details on 

upcoming events. For additional 

information, contact David Kuehn at FHWA, 

202-493-3414 (email: david.kuehn@dot.gov), 

or Terry Halkyard at FHWA, 202-493-3467 

(email: terry.halkyard@dot.gov).