Monitoring Science and Technology 

Symposium: Unifying Knowledge 

for Sustainability in the 

Western Hemisphere

United States

Department of

Agriculture

Forest Service

Rocky Mountain

Research Station

Proceedings

RMRS-P-42CD

August 2006
Aguirre-Bravo, C.; Pellicane, Patrick J.; Burns, Denver P.; and Draggan, Sidney, Eds. 2006. Monitoring 

Science and Technology Symposium: Unifying Knowledge for Sustainability in the Western 

Hemisphere. 2004 September 20-24; Denver, CO. Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. Fort Collins, CO: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 990 p.

Abstract—A rational approach to monitoring and assessment is prerequisite for sustainable management 

of ecosystem resources. This features innovative ways to advance the concept of monitoring ecosystem 

sustainability across spheres of environmental concern, natural and anthropogenic processes, and other 

hemispheric issues over a variety of spatial scales and resolution levels. Individuals and institutions, 

committed to mutual sustainability of ecosystem resources and human institutions, shared experiences 

and outlined a foundation for advancing the science and practice of monitoring and assessment at 

multiple geographical and organizational scales. Questions addressed in the proceedings papers 

include: What is the status and condition, and what are the trends in ecosystem sustainability? What 

are the strategies and opportunities for solving the sustainability dilemma? What are the individual and 

institutional responses to the sustainability challenge? Discussion during the symposium fostered the 

creation of coherent and unified ecosystem resource sustainability assessments and syntheses valuable 

to support environmental management and decision-making processes. The proceedings is a testimonial 

to the wealth of information presented at the symposium and a positive indicator of inter- and transdisciplinary scientific and technical success.

You may order additional copies of this publication by sending your 

mailing information in label form through one of the following media. 

Please specify the publication title and series number.

Fort Collins Service Center

Telephone: (970) 498-1392

FAX: (970) 498-1122

E-mail: rschneider@fs.fed.us

Web site: http://www.fs.fed.us/rm

Mailing address: Publications Distribution

Rocky Mountain Research Station

240 West Prospect Road

Fort Collins, CO 80526

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Natural Resources Research Center

2150 Centre Avenue, Building A

Fort Collins, CO 80526
Monitoring Science and Technology 

Symposium: Unifying Knowledge for 

Sustainability in the Western Hemisphere

September 20-24, 2004

Denver, CO

Organizers:

C. Aguirre-Bravo, Patrick J. Pellicane, 

Denver P. Burns, and Sidney Draggan

USDA Forest Service

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Fort Collins, CO 80526
ii

Preface

In recent decades, we have witnessed the growth of 

world-wide efforts to realize the goal of human societies 

living in harmony with the natural world. At the beginning 

of the 21st century, the world is poised on the threshold of a 

new era in which the unification of information, knowledge, 

and applications is emerging as the basis for understanding the complex and dynamic interactions between nature 

and society. The Monitoring Science and Technology 

Symposium, Unifying Knowledge for Sustainability in the 

Western Hemisphere, was organized in response to this 

opportunity. Sponsored by a consortium of government 

and non-government institutions across the Americas, the 

symposium brought together a diverse group of individuals 

and institutions, committed to the mutual sustainability of 

ecosystem resources and human institutions, to share their 

experiences and create a unified foundation for sustainability 

science and management.

Human processes have impacted practically every pixel of the multi-dimensional spatial grid of 

our planet. In this challenging new era, we need to recognize the social and economic importance 

of monitoring and assessment processes, and utilization of the resulting information for many purposes. Modern institutions are now facing a complex world where people from all cultural, social, 

and economic backgrounds need to be empowered with the appropriate knowledge and tools so that 

they can successfully confront the variety of sustainability challenges and opportunities associated 

with their local environment. Meeting these needs and concerns at the appropriate spatial-temporal 

scales clearly makes monitoring and assessment processes among the most challenging activities 

institutions face today and in the years to come.

A large number of high-profile speakers shared their perspectives on the simultaneous sustainability of environmental and socio-economic systems. Over 800 participants from 24 countries had 

the opportunity to share experiences and gain insights from a diverse group of people with a wide 

spectrum of cultural and scientific backgrounds. People who attended the symposium were deeply 

committed to the challenge of achieving both a healthy and vibrant environment for this and future 

generations, and creating thriving and sustainable economies and other social institutions upon 

which society relies.

The symposium was designed to promote the integration and exchange of information and 

knowledge about environmental and human sustainability gathered at different geographic scales. 

Numerous benefits resulted from this symposium. Specifically, the symposium contributed significantly to the process of advancing the development and application of defensible monitoring and 

assessment methods for the sustainable management of ecosystem resources and human institutions. 

The interactions of concerned people representing different disciplines—and cultural and geographic 

backgrounds—brought about new perspectives on sustainability strategies and solutions. In addition, exposure to the latest scientific and technological innovations—as well as the state-of-the-art 

in commercially-available products and services for environmental monitoring—were displayed in 

a variety of technical presentations, poster sessions, and technology exhibits.

I thank the organizers of this symposium and the participants for their outstanding work of making it an extraordinarily successful event.

Marcia Patton-Mallory, Ph. D.

USDA Forest Service

Director, Rocky Mountain Research Station

September 2004
iii

Acknowledgments

The organizers of the Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium wish to thank the individuals and organizations whose support of the Symposium was critical to its success. The topic 

matter of the Symposium obviously matched the interests of many wide ranging organizations as 

demonstrated by their support as well as the participation of their employees. Session chairpersons 

took the responsibility to develop the themes for their sessions. Sponsors are identified below, as are 

individuals who gave of their time and prestige to make the meeting successful. Finally we wish to 

thank the principals of Colorado Event Organizers, Ms. Sheryl Babiarz and Ms. Kathy Baker, who 

handled the logistics and venue of the Symposium with professionalism at every turn, and, as a bonus, 

kept the organizers reasonably calm as we hit the bumps attendant to organizing and conducting a 

meeting as large as the Symposium. Finally, we thank the participants who assured the success of 

the Symposium by their interest, participation, and constant intellectual stimulation.

Sponsors:

Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development

Department of Commerce: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Centers for 

 Coastal Ocean Science

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service:

Rocky Mountain Research Station

Pacific Northwest Research Station

Southern Research Station

Deputy Chief for Research and Development’s Science Policy, Planning, Inventory and Information staff

Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service

Environment Canada, Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN)

National Aeronautics and Space Agency, Geographic Interoperability Office

U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Agricultural Statistical Service

U.S. Department of Interior, Geological Survey

U.S. Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research, and Development Program

Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agricolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP)

State of Jalisco, Mexico, Fideicomiso para la Administraciondel Programa de Desarrollo 

 Forestal del Estado de Jalisco (FIPRODEFO)

Colorado State University

Consortium for Advancing Monitoring for Ecosystem Sustainability in the Americas (CAMESA)

Individuals:

Dr. Anthony Frank, Vice President for Research, Colorado State University

Dr. Chet Koblinsky, Director, NOAA Climate Office and NOAA Climate Program

Dr. William V. Kennedy, Executive Director of the Secretariat, Commission for Environmental Cooperation

Dr. Hague Vaughan, Director, Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network (EMAN), 

 Environment Canada

Dr. Paul Addison, Director General, Pacific Forestry Centre, Natural Resources Canada. 

 Dr. Flavio Montiel da Rocha, Director, Environmental protection, IBAMA, Minister of Environment, 

 BRAZIL

Dr. Martin Apple, President and CEO, Council of Scientific Society Presidents

Dr. Marc Garneau, President Canadian Space Agency

Dr. Jesus Moncada de la Fuente, Executive Director, Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones 

 Forestales, Agricolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP)

Lic. Ignacio A. Gonzalez Hernandez, Director Genral Forestal y de Sustentabilidad, SEDER, Jalisco, Mexico

Ing. L. Artemio Alonso Torres, Gerente, FIPRODEFO, Jalisco, Mexico

The Organizers:

Dr. Celedonio Aguirre-Bravo, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station

Dr. Sidney Draggan, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development

Dr. Patrick Pellicane, Professor, Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University

Dr. Denver Burns, consultant
iv

Contents

Atmosphere Systems and Processes............................1

The Effects of Nitrogen Deposition, Ambient Ozone, and Climate Change on 

Forests in the Western U.S....................................................................................................... 2

M.E. Fenn is a Research Plant Pathologist with the USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 

Riverside, CA

Critical Loads and Levels: Leveraging Existing Monitoring Data .......................................... 9

D. G. Fox, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO

A. R. Riebau, USDA Forest Service, Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

R. Fisher, USDA Forest Service, Air Resources Program, Washington, D.C.

Monitoring Forest Condition in Europe: Impacts of Nitrogen and Sulfur 

Depositions on Forest Ecosystems......................................................................................... 18

M. Lorenz, G. Becher and V. Mues are forest scientists at the Federal Research Centre for 

Forestry and Forest Products, Leuschnerstr. 91, D-21031 Hamburg, Germany

E. Ulrich, soil scientist, Office National des Forêts, Boulevard de Constance, F-77300 Fontainebleau, France

Critical Levels as Applied to Ozone for North American Forests.......................................... 26

Robert C. Musselman, Plant Physiologist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Fort Collins, CO

Canadian Experiences in Development of Critical Loads for Sulphur and Nitrogen.......... 33

Shaun Watmough, biogeochemist, Department of Environmental and Resource Studies, 

Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario K9J 7B8, Canada

Julian Aherne, biogeochemist, Department of Environmental and Resource Studies, Trent University, 

Peterborough, Ontario, Canada

Paul Arp, Professor, Faculty of Forestry and Environment Management, University of New Brunswick 

Fredericton, NB, Canada

Ian DeMerchant, GIS specialist, Canadian Forest Service, Atlantic Forestry Centre, Fredericton, NB, Canada

Rock Ouimet, forest soil science scientist, Direction de la recherche forestière, Forêt Québec, Ministere des 

Ressources Naturelles du Québec, Sainte-Foy, QC, Canada

Biosphere Systems and Processes..............................39

Putting Adaptive Management into Monitoring: Retrospective and Prospective Views 

of Northwest Forest Plan Monitoring................................................................................... 40

David E. Busch, Senior Biologist, U.S. Geological Survey Western Region, Regional Ecosystem Office, 

Portland, OR

Jon R. Martin, Northwest Forest Plan, Interagency Monitoring Program Manager, U.S. Forest Service, 

Portland, OR

Conceptual Frameworks for Monitoring of High-altitude Andean Ecosystems................... 45

David E. Busch, Senior Biologist, U.S.Geological Survey Western Region, Regional Ecosystem Office, 

Portland, OR

Xavier Silva is Director, IDB-TNC Ecoregional Project for South America, Teacher & Lecturer, 

San Francisco de Quito University, Quito, Ecuador

Remote Sensing of Saltcedar Biological Control Effectiveness .............................................. 50

Ray Carruthers, Ecologist and Research Leader, USDA-ARS, Exotic and Invasive Weed Research Unit, 

Albany, CA
v

Gerald Anderson, Ecologist and Remote Sensing Specialist, USDA-ARS Northern Plains Agricultural 

Research Lab in Sidney, MT

Jack DeLoach, Research Entomologist and Lead Scientist, Saltcedar Biological Control Project at the 

USDA-ARS, Grasslands Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Temple, TX

Jeff Knight, State Entomologist, Nevada Department of Agriculture, Reno, NV

Shaokui Ge, Research Affiliate, University of California Berkeley, CA

Peng Gong, Professor and Co-Director, Remote Sensing Lab, University of California, Berkeley, CA

Herpetological Communities of the Middle Rio Grande Bosque: What Do We Know, 

What Should We Know, and Why?....................................................................................... 57

Alice L. Chung-MacCoubrey, Research Wildlife Biologist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Albuquerque, NM

Heather L. Bateman, Graduate Student, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

Relevance of the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable Criteria and Indicators for 

Sustainable Rangeland Management to Conditions in Patagonia (Argentina)................ 67

Andrés F. Cibils, Assistant Professor, Range Science, Department of Animal and Range Sciences, 

New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

Gabriel E. Oliva, Research Scientist, INTA-EEA Santa Cruz and Professor at the Universidad 

Nacional de la Patagonia Austral, Casilla 332, (9400) Río Gallegos, Argentina

Groundwater, Vegetation, and Atmosphere: Comparative Riparian Evapotranspiration, 

Restoration, and Water Salvage ............................................................................................ 75

J. R. Cleverly, Research Assistant Professor of Biology, Department of Biology, University of 

New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

C. N. Dahm, Professor of Biology, J. R. Thibault, Riparian Ecologist, and D. McDonnell, 

Graduate Student, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico

J. E. Allred Coonrod, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil Engineering, 

University of New Mexico

Monitoring to Protect the Character of Individual Wildernesses.......................................... 81

David N. Cole, Research Biologist, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT

Planning for Large Scale Habitat Restoration in the Socorro Valley, New Mexico.............. 86

Gina Dello Russo, Ecologist at the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge and a U.S. Fish and 

Wildlife Service representative to the Socorro Save our Bosque Task Force, Socorro, NM

Yasmeen Najmi, Planner at the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District and Vice- Chairperson of the 

Socorro Save Our Bosque Task Force, Albuquerque, NM

Overview of Saltcedar Biological Control ................................................................................ 92

C. Jack DeLoach, Research Entomologist and Lead Scientist, Saltcedar Biological Control Project

Lindsey R. Milbrath, Research Entomologist, USDA-ARS, Grasslands Soil and Water Research 

Laboratory, Temple, TX

Ray Carruthers, Ecologist and Research Leader, USDA-ARS, Exotic and Invasive Weed Research Unit, 

Albany, CA

Allen E. Knutson , Professor and Extension Entomologist, Texas A&M University Research & Extension 

Center, Dallas, TX

Fred Nibling and Debra Eberts, Research Botanists, U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation, 

Ecological Research & Investigations Group, Denver, CO

David C. Thompson, Research Entomologist, Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology & Weed 

Science, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

David J. Kazmer, Research Entomologist, USDA-ARS, Northern Plains Agricultural Research Laboratory, 

Sidney, MT

Tom L. Dudley, Research Entomologist, University of Nevada, Department Environmental & Resource 

Science, Reno, NV

Dan W. Bean, Research Entomologist, Department of Vegetable Crops, University of California at Davis, 

Albany, CA

Jeff B. Knight, State Entomologist, Nevada Department of Agriculture, Reno, NV
vi

The Laws of Diminishing Yields in the Tropics...................................................................... 100

R. Derpsch, Ing. Agr. MSc., Senior Advisor to MAG-GTZ Soil Conservation Proyect, Casilla de 

Correo 1859, Asunción, Paraguay

M. Florentín, Ing. Agr. MSc., DIA, Campo Experimental de Choré, Proyecto Conservación de Suelos 

MAG-GTZ, Casilla de Correo 1859, Asunción, Paraguay

K. Moriya, Ing. Agr. MSc., DEAG, Coordinador Contraparte, Proyecto Conservación de Suelos MAG-GTZ, 

Casilla de Correo 1859, Asunción, Paraguay

Toward a Framework for Conducting Ecoregional Threats Assessments........................... 105

Jamison Ervin and Jeffrey Parrish

Monitoring Bird Populations in Relation to Fuel Loads and Fuel Treatments in 

Riparian Woodlands with Tamarisk and Russian Olive Understories............................ 113

Deborah M. Finch, Project Leader; June Galloway, Wildlife Biologist; and David Hawksworth, Biological 

Technician, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM

Soil and Water Indicators of the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable ............................... 121

M.G. “Sherm” Karl, Inventory & Monitoring Specialist, National Science & Technology Center, Bureau 

of Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO

D.A. Pyke, Research Rangeland Ecologist, Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, U.S. 

Geological Survey, Corvallis, OR

P.T. Tueller, Professor Emeritus of Range Ecology, Department of Natural Resources and Environmental 

Science, University of Nevada, Reno, NV

G.E. Schuman, Soil Scientist, Rangeland Resource Research Unit, High Plains Grasslands Research 

Station, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Cheyenne, WY

R.W. Shafer, Operations Research Analyst, Office of Environmental Information, Quality Staff, 

Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC

S.J. Borchard, Deputy Group Manager, Rangeland Soil Water and Air Group, Bureau of Land Management, 

U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC

D.T. Booth, Rangeland Scientist, Rangeland Resource Research Unit, High Plains Grasslands Research 

Station, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Cheyenne, WY

W.G. Ypsilantis, Soil Condition and Health Specialist, National Science & Technology Center, Bureau of 

Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior, Denver Federal Center, Lakewood, CO

R.H. Barrett, Jr., Rangeland Management Specialist, Oregon State Office, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. 

Department of the Interior, Portland, OR

An Overview of University of Alaska Anchorage, ENRI Research on the Spruce Bark 

Beetle Infestation, Kenai Peninsula, Alaska, 1997–2002................................................... 132

Vernon J. LaBau, University of Alaska Anchorage, Environment and Natural Resource Institute, 

Anchorage, AK

Ground-Based Photomonitoring of Ecoregional Ecological Changes in Northwestern 

Yunnan, China ...................................................................................................................... 140

James P. Lassoie, Professor, International Conservation and Kiran E. Goldman, Project Assistant, 

Department of Natural Resources, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca NY

Robert K. Moseley, Director of Conservation Science, The Nature Conservancy, Kunming, Yunnan, 650051, 

China

Carbon Pools—Checking the Deep End, Before Diving In (The ME Experience)............. 152

K. M. Laustsen, Biometrician, Maine Forest Service, Department of Conservation, Augusta, ME

Analyzing the Economics of Tamarisk in the Pecos, Rio Grande, and Colorado River 

Watersheds............................................................................................................................ 161

Lewis, Joseph W., Economist Forest Health Protection, Arlington, VA

Basala, Allen; Zavaleta; Erika; Parker; Douglas L.; Taylor, John; Horner, Mark; Dionigi, Christopher; 

Carlson, Timothy, Spiller, Samuel; and Nibling, Frederick

Monitoring Insects to Maintain Biodiversity in Ogawa Forest Reserve.............................. 164

S. Makino, T. Inoue, K. Hamaguchi, K. Okabe, M., and I. Okochi, entomologists, and H. Tanaka, botanist, 

Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Matsunosato 1, Tsukuba, 305-8687, Japan
vii

H. Goto, entomologist, Kyushu Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 

Kumamoto, 860-0862, Japan

M. Hasegawa, soil zoologist, Kiso experimental station, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 

Nagano 397-0001, Japan

M. Sueyoshi, entomologist, Department of Systematic Biology, Entomology Section, National Museum of 

Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, USA

Social and Economic Indicators of the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable..................... 168

John E. Mitchell, Rangeland Scientist, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO

Daniel W. McCallum, Research Economist, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO

Lewis E. Swanson, Head, Dept. of Sociology, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

John Tanaka, Professor, Oregon State University, Union, OR

Mark Brunson, Assoc. Professor, Dept. of Environment and Society, Utah State University, Logan, UT

Aaron Harp, Director, Caldwell Research and Extension Center, University of Idaho, Caldwell, ID

L. Allen Torell, Professor, Dept. Agricultural Economics, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

H. Theodore Heintz. Asst. Dir. for Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Interior, Washington, DC

Monitoring Riparian Restoration: A Management Perspective........................................... 177

Yasmeen Najmi, Planner, and Sterling Grogan, Biologist and Planner, Middle Rio Grande Conservancy 

District, Albuquerque, NM

Urban Forest Health Monitoring in the United States.......................................................... 181

David J. Nowak, Project Leader, Robert Hoehn, Biological Science Technician, Jeffrey T. Walton, 

Research Forester, Daniel E. Crane, Information Technology Specialist, and Jack C. Stevens, Forester, 

USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, Syracuse, NY

Daniel Twardus, Forest Health Specialist, and Anne Cumming, Urban Forester, USDA Forest Service, 

Northeastern Area State and Private Forestry Morgantown, WV

Manfred Mielke, Forest Health Monitoring Specialist, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Area State and 

Private Forestry, St. Paul, MN

Bill Smith, Research Quantitative Ecologist, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Forest 

Sciences Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC

Monitoring Patagonian Rangelands: The MARAS System.................................................. 188

Oliva, Gabriel, INTA EEA Santa Cruz. Chacra 45 A 9400 Rio Gallegos Santa Cruz Argentina

Juan Escobar, INTA EEA Chubut, Guillermo Siffredi, INTA EEA Bariloche, Jorge Salomone, 

INTA EEA Chubut, and Gustavo Buono, INTA EEA Chubut

Nonnative Invasive Plants in South Carolina: Combining Phase-2 with Phase-3 

Vegetation Structure and Diversity Pilot Data to Enhance our Understanding 

of Forest Health Issues......................................................................................................... 194

Sonja N. Oswalt, Forest Resource Analyst, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, Knoxville, TN

Socioeconomic Root Causes of Biodiversity Loss in Madagascar ........................................ 203

Anitry N. Ratsifandrihamanana, Conservation Director, WWF Madagascar and West Indian Ocean Program 

Office, Antananarivo, Madagascar

Dawn Montanye, Senior Program Officer, Macroeconomics Program Office, Poverty and Environment 

Program, WWF-US, Washington, DC

Sarah Christiansen, Senior Program Officer, Endangered Spaces Program, WWF-US; and Sheila O’Connor, 

Director, Conservation Measures and Audits, WWF International, Avenue du Mont-Blanc, 1196 Gland, 

Switzerland

Tamarisk Mapping and Monitoring Using High Resolution Satellite Imagery.................. 213

Jason W. San Souci, Director of Remote Sensing Applications, Native Communities Development 

Corporation, Colorado Springs, CO

John T. Doyle, Sales Manager, DigitalGlobe, Inc., Monument, CO

Monitoring Ecosystems and Biodiversity at a Continental Scale—A Proposal for 

South America....................................................................................................................... 216

Dr. Xavier Silva, Director, IDB-TNC Ecoregional Project, South America. Teacher and Lecturer, 

San Francisco de Quito University. Board Member, OÏKOS Foundation
viii

An Overview of Inventory and Monitoring and the Role of FIA in National 

Assessments........................................................................................................................... 223

W. Brad Smith, Associate National Program Manager for Forest Inventory and Analysis, USDA Forest Service 

Research & Development, Washington, DC

Wildfire, Exotic Vegetation, and Breeding Bird Habitat in the Rio Grande Bosque.......... 230

D. Max Smith, Graduate Student, Department of Zoology, University of Oklahoma and Oklahoma 

Biological Survey, Norman, OK

Jeff F. Kelly, Assistant Professor of Zoology, University of Oklahoma and Heritage Zoologist, Oklahoma 

Biological Survey

Deborah M. Finch, Project Leader, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Albuquerque, NM

Saltcedar and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers: Lessons From Long-term Studies in 

Central Arizona..................................................................................................................... 238

M. K. Sogge and E. H. Paxton, Researchers, U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center, 

Flagstaff, AZ

April A. Tudor, Biologist, Arizona Game and Fish Department, Nongame and Endangered Wildlife Program, 

Phoenix, AZ

Monitoring Late-Successional Forest Biodiversity in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.A. ......... 242

Thomas A. Spies, Research Ecologist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 

Corvallis, OR

Jon R. Martin, Monitoring Program Manager, USDA Forest Service, Portland, OR

Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program—Monitoring Effectiveness of Sustainable 

Forest Management Planning.............................................................................................. 246

J. John Stadt, Forest Ecologist, Forest Management Branch, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, 

Edmonton AB T5K 2M4 Canada

Jim Schieck, Research Ecologist, Integrated Resource Management, Alberta Research Council, Vegreville 

AB T9C 1T4 Canada

Harry Stelfox, Senior Manager Intergovernmental Relations and Resource Policy, Policy and Planning, 

Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton AB T5K 2G8 Canada

Aerial Treatment of Salt Cedar Within Threatened and Endangered Species 

Habitat—A Success Story .................................................................................................... 254

Nyleen H. Troxel Stowe, Director of Special Projects, Program Manager, Socorro Soil & Water 

Conservation District, Socorro County Noxious Weed Coordinator, Socorro, NM

Sequencing Conservation Actions Through Threat Assessments in the Southeastern 

United States ......................................................................................................................... 257

Robert D. Sutter, Senior Conservation Ecologist, and Christopher C. Szell, Conservation Ecologist, 

The Nature Conservancy, Southern U.S. Regional Office, Durham, NC

Monitoring of Biodiversity Indicators in Boreal Forests: A Need for Improved Focus..... 267

Ian D. Thompson

Southwestern Avian Community Organization in Exotic Tamarix: Current Patterns 

and Future Needs.................................................................................................................. 274

H. A. Walker, doctoral candidate, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM, 

and seasonal Wildlife Biologist, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, 

NM

Monitoring the Relationship Between the Public and Public Lands: Application to 

Wilderness Stewardship in the U.S..................................................................................... 287

Alan Watson, Research Social Scientist, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, USDA Forest 

Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT

William Borrie, Associate Professor, College of Forestry and Conservation, Department of Conservation 

and Society, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT
ix

The Politics and Science of Tamarisk...................................................................................... 294

Philip Westra, Professor, Weed Science, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO

Changes in Riparian Vegetation Buffers in Response to Development in Three Oregon 

Cities ...................................................................................................................................... 296

J. A. Yeakley, Associate Professor, Environmental Science, C. P. Ozawa, Professor of Urban Studies and 

Planning, and A. M. Hook, Research Associate, Environmental Science, Portland State University, 

Portland, OR

Hydrosphere Systems and Processes.......................303

Regional Monitoring of Coral Condition in the Florida Keys.............................................. 304

William S. Fisher, Deborah L. Santavy, William P. Davis and Lee A. Courtney, research biologists with the 

United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, National Health 

and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL

Use of EMAP Freshwater and Marine Data in EPA Region 10............................................ 312

Gretchen A. Hayslip, C. Lorraine Edmond, and Lillian G. Herger, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

Seattle, WA

From Marshes to the Continental Shelf: Results of the Western Component of the 

US EPA National Coastal Assessment................................................................................. 319

W. G. Nelson, H. Lee II, J. O. Lamberson, Pacific Coastal Ecology Branch, Western Ecology Division, 

National Health and Environmental Effects Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 

Newport OR

An Integrated Monitoring Approach Using Multiple Reference Sites to Assess 

Sustainable Restoration in Coastal Louisiana ................................................................... 326

Gregory D. Steyer, senior Wetland Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands Research 

Center, Coastal Restoration Field Station, Baton Rouge, LA

Robert R. Twilley, Director, Wetland Biogeochemistry Institute, Louisiana State University, 

Baton Rouge, LA

Richard C. Raynie, Coastal Resources Scientist Manager, Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, 

Coastal Restoration Division, Baton Rouge, LA

Assessment of Eutrophication in Estuaries: Pressure-State-Response and Source 

Apportionment...................................................................................................................... 334

David Whitall and Suzanne Bricker, staff scientists, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment, N/SCI 

SSMC4, Silver Spring, MD

Rhizosphere Systems and Processes........................343

Use of Data Layering to Address Changes in Nitrogen Management Zone Delineation ... 344

D.W. Franzen, Extension Soil Specialist, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND

T. Nanna, graduate student, North Dakota State University

Contributions to Improve Fallow System in Yucatan State Mexico .................................... 350

Gabriel Uribe Valle, M.C., Investigador INIFAP-CIR-Sureste C.E Uxmal. Apdo .Post # 50 Unidad 

administrativa # 4. Mérida Yucatán, México

Juan Jiménez-Osornio, Ph D. Jefe Del Departamento De Manejo Y Conservación De Recursos Naturales 

Tropicales. Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia. Universidad Autónoma de Yucatán. Apdo. 

Post. #28 Cordemx 97110. Mérida Yucatán, México

Roberto Dzib Echeverría, M.C. Investigador INIFAP-CIR-Sureste C.E Uxmal. Apdo .Post # 50 Unidad 

administrativa # 4. Mérida Yucatán. México
x

Historic Hydroclimatic Variability in Northern Mexico ....................................................... 354

José Villanueva-Diaz, dendrochronologist, INIFAP CENID – RASPA; Km 6.5 Margen Derecha del Canal 

Sacramento, Gómez Palacio, Durango, Mexico

J. Cerano-Paredes, D.W. Stahle, B. H. Luckman, M.D. Therrell, M.K. Cleaveland, and G. Gutierrez-Garcia

A Carbon Inventory for Mexico .............................................................................................. 365

L. Wood, Senior Associate and Remote Sensing Specialist, and D. A. Hughell, Associate and GIS 

Specialist, ARD, Inc., Burlington VT

H. G. Lund, Forest Inventory Specialist, Forest Information Services, Gainesville, VA

V. E. Torres, Remote Sensing Specialist, Prextec, Nicolas San Juan 360, Col. de Valle, México

Mario Pérez-Chavéz, Biologist and President, GEOSFERA, Adolfo Ruiz Cortinez, 209, Aguascalientes, 

México

Society and Nature Interactions .............................375

Human and Nature Interactions: A Dynamic Land Base of Many Goods 

and Services........................................................................................................................... 376

Ralph J. Alig, Team Leader and Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, Corvallis, OR

The Resource Buffer Theory: Connecting the Dots from Conservation to 

Sustainability......................................................................................................................... 385

Peter E. Black, Professor, Water and Related Land Resources, Emeritus, SUNY College of 

Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY

What’s Law Got to Do with It? The Relationship of Law to Environmental Systems 

Management and Sustainability Research......................................................................... 391

N. Theresa Hoagland, Attorney and an Environmental Protection Specialist, U. S. Environmental 

Protection Agency, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, Cincinnati, OH

Establishing Empirical Bases for Sustainability Objectives................................................. 395

Lawrence Martin, Biologist, US EPA Office of Research and Development in the Office of Science 

Policy, Washington, DC

Ecologic, Economic, and Social Considerations for Rangeland Sustainability: 

An Integrated Conceptual Framework .............................................................................. 403

Daniel W. McCollum, economist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Fort Collins, CO

H. Theodore Heintz, Jr., economist, US Dept of the Interior and Council on Environmental Quality, 

Washington, DC

Aaron J. Harp, self-employed sociologist, Ann Arbor, MI

John A. Tanaka, economist, Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center, Union, OR

Gary R. Evans, College of Natural Resources, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University, 

Northern Virginia Center, Alexandria, VA

David Radloff, Sustainable Development, State & Private Forestry, USDA Forest Service, 

Washington, DC

Louis E. Swanson, Chair, Dept. of Sociology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

William E. Fox, III, rangeland ecologist, Texas Water Resources Institute, Texas A&M University, 

College Station, TX

Michael G. “Sherm” Karl, Inventory and Monitoring Specialist with the Bureau of Land Management, 

Colorado State Office, Lakewood, CO

John E. Mitchell, rangeland scientist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Fort Collins, CO

A New Dimension in Evolution: Impacts of Human Consciousness on Sustainability—

and Beyond............................................................................................................................ 410

Charles M. McKenna, Jr.
xi

Relating Change Patterns to Anthropogenic Processes to Assess Sustainability: 

A Case Study in Amazonia................................................................................................... 430

Libia Patricia Peralta Agudelo, GIS Senior Lecturer and Research Associate, CEFET-PR and the 

Institute of Sustainable Development, Paraná, Brazil

Disembedded Ideologies, Embedded Alternatives: Agricultural Biotechnology, 

Legitimacy, and the WTO.................................................................................................... 439

Mark J. Philbrick, President, Terranet Consulting, Inc., San Francisco, CA

Human Institutions and Processes ..........................447

Using Biodiversity Indicators to Assess the Success of Forecasting Adaptive 

Ecosystem Management: The Newfoundland and Labrador Experience....................... 448

C. Sean Dolter, Project Manager, Western Newfoundland Model Forest Inc., Corner Brook, NL

The Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network....................................................................... 455

Chris Jones, Benthic Biomonitoring Scientist, Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset Environmental 

Science Centre, Dorset, Ontario, Canada, P0A 1E0

Brian Craig, Network Science Advisor, Environment Canada, Ecological Monitoring and Assessment 

Network Coordinating Office, Burlington, Ontario, Canada, L7R 4A6

Nicole Dmytrow, intern, Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset Environmental Science Centre, Dorset, 

Ontario, Canada, P0A 1E0

Tri Community Watershed Initiative: Towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley and 

Okotoks, Alberta, Canada Promoting Sustainable Behaviour in Watersheds and 

Communities......................................................................................................................... 462

Maureen Lynch is theCoordinator of the Tri Community Watershed Initiative, Black Diamond, AB, T0L 0H0

The Role of Institutions of Higher Education in Sustainability: The Comprehensive, 

Public, Land-Grant University............................................................................................ 469

Patrick J. Pellicane, Ph.D., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

A Successful Experiment: The Boundary Spanner on the Bitterroot National Forest....... 475

Sharon Ritter, Research/Management Coordinator, Bitterroot National Forest, Hamilton, MT

Partnerships in Community-based Approaches to Achieving Sustainability: 

The Atlantic Coastal Action Program................................................................................. 481

F. Rousseau, Research and Liaison Officer, Environment Canada - Atlantic Region, Community and 

Departmental Relations, Sustainable Communities and Ecosystems Division, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, 

Canada, B2Y 2N6

Colleen McNeil, Coordinator, Atlantic Coastal Action Program, Environment Canada - Atlantic Region, 

Community and Departmental Relations, Sustainable Communities and Ecosystems Division, 

Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada, B2Y 2N6

Larry Hildebrand, Manager, Atlantic Coastal Action Program, Environment Canada - Atlantic Region, 

Community and Departmental Relations, Sustainable Communities and Ecosystems Division, 

Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada, B2Y 2N6

Engaging Industry in Community Decision Making for a Sustainable Future .................. 488

Brent Tegler, Applied Ecologist & Partner, North-South Environmental Inc., Campbellville, ON, 

Canada L0P 1B0

Science, Communities, and Decision Making: How Can We Learn to Dance with 

Many Partners? .................................................................................................................... 492

Liette Vasseur, Associate Vice president – Research/Vice Rectrice Adjointe à la Recherche, Laurentian 

University/Université Laurentienne, Sudbury (Ontario) Canada P3E 2C6
xii

Sustainability Traditional Knowledge......................499

GLOBE ONE: A Community-Based Environmental Field Campaign................................ 500

Rebecca Boger PhD, Peggy LeMone PhD, John McLaughlin, Sharon Sikora PhD, Sandra Henderson PhD

Devil’s in the Details: Using Archaeological and Historical Data to Refine Ecosystem 

Models at the Local Level .................................................................................................... 505

Don Hann, Forest Archaeologist, Malheur National Forest, John Day, OR

Industrial Archaeology, Landscapes, and Historical Knowledge of Sustainability............ 514

Donald L. Hardesty, University of Nevada, Reno

Social Memory of Short-term and Long-term Variability in the Sahelian Climate ........... 518

Roderick J. McIntosh, Professor of Anthropology, Rice University, Houston, TX

Resource-Balance Design and Monitoring: Assessing Sustainability of 

FSEEC-LandLab as BSU’s First Sustainable Built-site ................................................... 521

J. L. Motloch, Professor of Landscape Architecture and Director of the Land Design Institute, Ball State 

University, Muncie, IN

Sustainability for the Americas Initiative: Land Design Institute, Ball State 

University .............................................................................................................................. 533

J. L. Motloch, PhD, Professor of Landscape Architecture and Director of the Land Design Institute at 

Ball State University, Muncie, IN

Pedro Pacheco, PhD, Professor of Architecture, TEC de Monterrey (ITESM), Monterrey, Mexico

Eloy F. Casagrande Jr., PhD, Mineral Resources Engineering and Environment, Professor of Sustainable 

Development, Federal Center of Technological Education, Paraná, Brazil

The Role of Indigenous Knowledge in Biodiversity Assessment and Monitoring: 

A Case Study in Uganda....................................................................................................... 543

Robinah K. Nanyunja, Research Scientist, Makerere University Institute of Environment and Natural 

Resources (MUIENR), Kampala, Uganda, East Africa

Landscape Conservation and Social Tension in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest: 

Challenges for Implementing Sustainability...................................................................... 550

Libia Patricia Peralta Agudelo, PhD, Landscape Ecology, GIS Senior Lecturer & Research Associate, CEFETPR, Institute of Sustainable Development, Paraná, Brazil

Maristela Marangon, Sociologist and Masters Degree Candidate, CEFET-PR, Paraná, Brazil

Visualizing the Anthropocene: Human Land Use History and Environmental 

Management.......................................................................................................................... 558

Richard D. Periman, Ph.D., Research Archaeologist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research 

Station, Cultural Heritage Research, Albuquerque, NM

Globalization Then and Now: Increasing Scale Reduces Local Sustainability................... 565

Joseph A. Tainter, Project Leader, Cultural Heritage Research, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Albuquerque, NM

Natural Processes and Impacts ...............................573

Assessment and Monitoring of Forest Ecosystem Structure ................................................ 574

Oscar A. Aguirre Calderón, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, U.A.N.L., Apartado Postal 65, 

67700 Linares, N. L., México

Javier Jiménez Pérez, and Horst Kramer
xiii

International Center for Himalayan Biodiversity (ICHB): Conserving Himalayan 

Biodiversity—A Global Responsibility ............................................................................... 580

Ram Bhandari, Coordinator, International Centre for Himalayan Biodiversity, ICHB Secretariat

Integrating Vegetation Classification, Mapping, and Strategic Inventory for Forest 

Management.......................................................................................................................... 584

C. K. Brewer, I.A.A.A. Program Leader, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Remote Sensing Application Center, 

Salt Lake City, UT

R. Bush, Inventory and Analysis Specialist, and D. Berglund, J. A. Barber, and S. R. Brown are 

GIS/Remote Sensing Specialists, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Northern Region, Missoula, MT

High Resolution Wind Direction and Speed Information for Support of Fire 

Operations............................................................................................................................. 595

B. Butler, Research Engineer, J. Forthofer, Mechanical Engineer, M. Finney, Research Forester, and 

L. Bradshaw, Meteorologist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT

R. Stratton, Forester, Systems for Environmental Management, Missoula, MT

B.W. Butler, J.M. Forthofer, M.A. Finney, L.S. Bradshaw, R. Stratton

Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland Fire Management: A Decision 

Calendar Study ..................................................................................................................... 603

Thomas W. Corringham, Department of Economics, UCSD, La Jolla, CA

Anthony L. Westerling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate Research Division, La Jolla, CA

Barbara J. Morehouse, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Monitoring Ecological Resources within U.S. National Parks: Developing “Vital Signs” 

of Ecological Integrity for the Northeast Temperate Network......................................... 614

Don Faber-Langendoen, Senior Ecologist, NatureServe and Adjunct Associate Professor, State University 

of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry (SUNY ESF), Syracuse, NY

Geraldine Tierney, Post-doctoral Associate and James Gibbs, Associate Professor at SUNY ESF, 

Syracuse, NY

Greg Shriver, Network Coordinator and Fred Dieffenbach, biologist/data manager, Northeast Temperate 

Network, National Park Service, Woodstock, VT

Pam Lombard, hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey, Augusta, ME

Sustainable Forest Management Support Based on the Spatial Distribution of 

Fuels for Fire Management.................................................................................................. 623

José Germán Flores Garnica, Juan de Dios Benavides Solorio, and David Arturo Moreno Gonzalez, 

Centro de Investigaciones del Pacífico Centro. INIFAP. Parque Los Colomos S/N, Col. Providencia. 

Guadalajara, Jal.isco. México

Geostatistical Evaluation of Natural Tree Regeneration of a Disturbed Forest ................. 627

José Germán Flores Garnica, David Arturo Moreno Gonzalez, Juan de Dios Benavides Solorio 

Centro de Investigaciones del Pacífico Centro. INIFAP. Parque Los Colomos S/N, Col. Providencia. 

Guadalajara, Jal.isco. México

Economic Impact of Fire Weather Forecasts ......................................................................... 633

Don Gunasekera, Graham Mills, and Mark Williams, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 

Melbourne, Australia

Inventorying and Monitoring of Tropical Dry Forests Tree Diversity in Jalisco, 

Mexico Using a Geographical Information System........................................................... 638

Efren Hernandez-Alvarez, Ph. Dr. Candidate, Department of Forest Biometrics, University of 

Freiburg, Germany

Dr. Dieter R. Pelz, Professor and head of Department of Forest Biometrics, University of 

Freiburg, Germany

Dr. Carlos Rodriguez Franco, International Affairs Specialist, USDA-ARS Office of International 

Research Programs, Beltsville, MD
xiv

Tree Crown Structure Indicators in a Natural Uneven-Aged Mixed Coniferous 

Forest in Northeastern Mexico............................................................................................ 649

Javier Jiménez-Pérez, Oscar Aguirre-Calderón, and Horst Kramer

Development of a Transition Pathway Model Using Three Traditional Variables to 

Describe the Main Structural Characteristics of a Forest Stand Type, Size, and 

Density ................................................................................................................................... 655

Chad Larson

Biodiversity Conservation, Sustainable Development, and the U.S. Man and the 

Biosphere Program: Past Contributions and Future Directions...................................... 663

P. N. Manley, Research Wildlife Biologist and Technical Assistant to U.S. MAB Coordinator, U.S. 

Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Davis, CA

D. C. Hayes is the National Program Leader for Watershed Research and U.S. MAB Coordinator, 

USDA Forest Service, Washington D.C.

The Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring Protocol: A Population, Community, 

and Biodiversity Monitoring Solution for National Forest System Lands...................... 671

P. N. Manley, Research Wildlife Biologist, U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, 

Davis, CA

B. Van Horne, National Wildlife Research Program Leader, U.S. Forest Service, Arlington, VA

General Direction of the National Center for Environmental Research and Training 

(Cenica).................................................................................................................................. 681

A. P. Martínez Bolívar, Director of Research in Air Quality Monitoring and Analytic Characterization 

of Pollutants

J. Zaragoza Ávila, O. Fentanes Arriaga and S. Hernández Millán, Direction of Research in Air Quality 

Monitoring and Analytic Characterization of Pollutants, CENICA Tecamachalco/INE/SEMARNAT, 

Boulevard El Pípila No. 1. Col. Lomas de Tecamachalco, C.P. 53950, Naucalpan de Juárez, Estado de 

México. MEXICO

V. J. Gutiérrez Avedoy is the General Director of the CENICA, CENICA /INE/SEMARNAT, San Rafael 

Atlixco No. 186 Col. Vicentina Delegación Iztapalapa, C. P. 09340 UAM-l Edificio de Ciencia y 

Tecnología Ambiental “W”

Simulation Tools for Forest Health Analysis: An Application in the Red River 

Watershed, Idaho.................................................................................................................. 691

Andrew J. McMahan, Ecological Modeler, INTECS International, Inc., Ft. Collins, CO

Eric L Smith, Quantitative Analysis Program Manager, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, 

USDA Forest Service, Ft. Collins, CO

Integrating Fire, Climate, and Societal Factors into Decision Support for Strategic 

Planning in Wildland Fire Management............................................................................ 699

Barbara J. Morehouse and Gregg Garfin, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona

Timothy Brown, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV

Thomas W. Swetnam, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Wildfire Mitigation and Private Lands: Managing Long-Term Vulnerabilities................. 706

Brian Muller, Assistant Professor, and Stacey Schulte, Doctoral Student, University of Colorado at Denver, 

College of Architecture and Planning, Environmental Design Building, Boulder, CO

Temporal Tendencies of River Discharge of Five Watersheds of Northern Mexico ........... 710

José Návar, Professor of Watershed Management and Forest Hydrology, Facultad de Ciencias 

Forestales-UANL. Carr. Nacional km 145. Linares, N.L., México

Humberto Hernández and Julio Ríos, M.Sc. For. Studentes. Facultad de Ciencias Forestales-UANL. 

Carr. Nacional km 145. Linares, N.L., México

Mitigating Wildfire Risk in the Wildland Urban Interface: The Role of Regulations....... 715

Cheryl R. Renner, Research Associate, Department of Environmental Studies, Louisiana State 

University, Mandeville, LA
xv

Dr. Margaret Reams, Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Studies, Louisiana State 

University, Baton Rouge, LA

Terry Haines, Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, New Orleans, LA

Szendrő - type Integrated Vegetation Fire Management—Wildfire Management 

Program from Hungary ....................................................................................................... 723

Ágoston Restás. Fire Chief, Szendrő Fire Department, 3752 Szendrő, Hungary

Decision Support for Evaluating the U.S. National Criteria and Indicators for Forest 

Ecosystem Sustainability...................................................................................................... 729

Keith M. Reynolds, research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station, Corvallis, OR

Forests on the Edge: A GIS-based Approach to Projecting Housing Development on 

Private Forests ...................................................................................................................... 736

Susan Stein, Private Forestland Studies Coordinator and Mike Dechter, Natural Resource Specialist, 

USDA Forest Service, Cooperative Forestry, Washington, DC

Ron McRoberts and Mark Nelson, Forest Inventory and Analysis Researchers, USDA Forest Service, 

North Central Research Station, St. Paul, MN

David Theobald, scientist, Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Mike Eley, GIS Coordinator for American Farmland Trust, Washington, D.C.

Monitoring Global Crop Condition Indicators Using a Web-Based Visualization 

Tool......................................................................................................................................... 744

Bob Tetrault, Regional Commodity Analyst, and Bob Baldwin, GIS Specialist, USDA, 

Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, D.C.

Technology Innovations and Applications ..............749

A Conceptual View for Advancing Monitoring and Assessment of Land Resources 

in the Mexican State of Jalisco ............................................................................................ 750

Celedonio Aguirre-Bravo, Research Coordinator for the Americas, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO

Learning Center for Advancing Natural Resources and Environmental Sustainability 

in the Mexican State of Jalisco ............................................................................................ 755

Celedonio Aguirre-Bravo, Research Coordinator for the Americas, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO

Hans Schreuder, retired Mathematical Statistician, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO

A Research/Teaching Inventory and Monitoring Institute for the State of 

Jalisco, Mexico ...................................................................................................................... 761

Cele Aguirre Bravo and Hans T. Schreuder

The Trust Fund for the Administration of the Forest Development Program, and the 

Inventory and Monitoring of Jalisco’s Natural Resources............................................... 763

Luis Artemio Alonso T.

Trace Chemical Detection through Vegetation Sentinels and Fluorescence Spectroscopy 766

John E. Anderson, Robert L. Fischer, and Jean D. Nelson

Developing a Methodology to Predict Oak Wilt Distribution Using Classification 

Tree Analysis ......................................................................................................................... 771

Marla C. Downing, USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, Fort Collins, CO

Vernon L. Thomas, INTECS International, Inc., Fort Collins, CO

Robin M. Reich, Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO
xvi

Web Services—A Buzz Word with Potentials ........................................................................ 779

János T Füstös

Forest Stand Canopy Structure Attribute Estimation from High Resolution 

Digital Airborne Imagery..................................................................................................... 783

Demetrios Gatziolis, Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, USDA-FS, 

Portland, OR

A New FIA-Type Strategic Inventory (NFI)........................................................................... 790

Richard A. Grotefendt, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Hans T. Schreuder, U.S.D.A. Retired. Formerly Mathematical Statistician USDA Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Fort Collins, CO

The Use of Open Source Software in the Global Land Ice Measurements From Space 

(GLIMS) Project, and the Relevance to Institutional Cooperation................................. 799

Christopher W. Helm is a Research Assistant at the University of Colorado, Boulder, The National 

Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO

Forest Canopy Heights in Amazon River Basin Forests as Estimated with the 

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS)...................................................................... 802

E. H. Helmer, Research Ecologist, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest Service, 

Jardín Botánico Sur, Río Piedras, PR

M. A. Lefsky, Assistant Professor, Department of Forest, Rangeland and Watershed Stewardship, 

Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Aerial Detection Surveys in the United States........................................................................ 809

E. W. Johnson, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Golden, CO

D. Wittwer, USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region, Juneau, AK

Small Area Variance Estimation for the Siuslaw NF in Oregon and Some Results............ 812

S Lin, D.Boes and H.T. Schreuder

Aerial Sketchmapping for Monitoring Forest Conditions in Southern Brazil.................... 815

Y. M. Malheiros de Oliveira , M. A. Doetzer Rosot and N.B. da Luz, researchers, Brazilian 

Agricultural Research Company – Embrapa, Colombo-PR, CEP 83400-000, Brazil

W. M. Ciesla, owner, Forest Health Management International, Fort Collins, CO

E.W. Johnson, Aerial Survey Program Manager, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region,

 Forest Health Protection, Denver, CO

R. Rhea, entomologist, USDA Forest Service, Southern Region, Forest Health Protection, Asheville, NC

J.F. Penteado Jr., technician and aerial observer, Brazilian Agricultural Research Company – Embrapa, 

Colombo-PR, CEP 83400-000, Brazil

Naturalness as a Paradigm for Environmental Services Assessment................................... 825

Martín Alfonso Mendoza B., Ana Lid del Angel P., and Gabriel Díaz

A Heuristic for Landscape Management................................................................................ 829

Martín Alfonso Mendoza B., FIPRODEFO, Bruselas 626 Col. Moderna, 44190 Guadalajara, 

Jalisco, México

Jesús Zepeta S. and Juan José Fajardo A., Consultoría Ambiental SC, Emiliano Zapata 96, 

46900 Mascota, Jalisco, México

Distributed GIS Systems, Open Specifications and Interoperability: How do They 

Relate to the Sustainable Management of Natural Resources? ....................................... 832

Rafael Moreno-Sanchez, Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of 

Colorado at Denver, Denver, CO
xvii

Spatial Statistical and Modeling Strategy for Inventorying and Monitoring Ecosystem 

Resources at Multiple Scales and Resolution Levels......................................................... 839

Reich, Robin M, Professor of Forest Biometry and Spatial Statistics, College of Natural Resources, 

Colorado State University

Aguirre-Bravo, C., Research Coordinator for the Americas, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

USDA Forest Service

Williams, M.S., Mathematical Statistician, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest Service

Statistical Strategy for Inventorying and Monitoring the Ecosystem Resources of 

the State of Jalisco at Multiple Scales and Resolution Levels.......................................... 850

Robin M. Reich, Professor, Forest Biometry, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO

Hans T. Schreuder, retired Mathematical Statistician Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA 

Forest Service, USA

The FIA Panel Design and Compatible Estimators for the Components of Change.......... 861

Francis A. Roesch, Mathematical Statistician, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest Service, 

Asheville, NC

1872 vs 2004: Mining Claim Meets the World Wide Web..................................................... 865

Edward Russell, computer scientist, Computer Terrain Mapping, Inc., Boulder, CO

Spatial Modeling of Industrial Windfall on Soils to Detect Woody Species with 

Potential for Bioremediation ............................................................................................... 871

S. Salazar, Colegio de Postgraduados, Campus Veracruz, Carretera Federal Veracruz-Xalapa km 26.5.

 Mpio. Manlio Fabio Altamirano, Veracruz, C. P. 91690

M. Mendoza, FIPRODEFO, Jalisco, México, A. L. del Angel Perez, Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones 

Agropecuarias, Campo Cotaxtla, Veracruz, Ver.

A. Tejeda M, Facultad de Ciencias Atmosféricas, Universidad Veracruzana. Xalapa, Ver. México

On-Line Analysis of Southern FIA Data................................................................................. 875

Michael P. Spinney, Quantitative Forestry Analyst, and Paul C. Van Deusen, Principal Research 

Scientist, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Lowell, MA

Francis A. Roesch, Mathematical Statistician, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 

Asheville, NC

Remote Sensing, Sampling and Simulation Applications in Analyses of Insect 

Dispersion and Abundance in Cotton................................................................................. 879

J. L. Willers, Research Entomologist, J. M. McKinion, Electronics Engineer, and J. N. Jenkins, Geneticist, 

USDA-ARS Genetics and Precision Agriculture Research Unit, Mississippi State, MS

Global Cooperation and Security............................887

Planning Quality for Successful International Environmental Monitoring........................ 888

George M. Brilis and John G. Lyon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National Exposure 

Research Laboratory, Las Vegas, NV

Jeffery C. Worthington, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Environmental Information, 

Washington, DC

Knowledge Unification Processes ...........................901

Strategic Planning for Sustainable Forests: The Plan Drives the Budgets Which 

Drive Results......................................................................................................................... 902

Paul Brouha, USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC

Elisabeth Grinspoon, USDA Forest Service, RPM, Portland, OR
xviii

Implementation of the Montreal Process: An Oregon Case Study....................................... 909

J. E. Brown, Governor’s Resources Advisor, Governor’s Office, Salem, OR

Canada’s Experience in Applying C&I to Measure Progress Towards SFM—

Perspectives from the National, Regional and Local Levels............................................. 914

John E. Hall, D. Phil (Oxon.) RPF, Science Advisor, Criteria and Indicators, Canadian Forest 

Service, Natural Resources Canada

S. R. J. Bridge, Criteria & Indicators Policy Advisor, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada

Brian D. Haddon, B. Sc. F. Manager, Statistical Services, Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada

Maryland’s Strategic Forest Lands Assessment—Using Indicators and Models for 

Decision Support................................................................................................................... 922

J. L. Horan, Chief of Forest Resource Planning and Analysis, Maryland DNR Forest Service, 

Annapolis, MD

J. C. Wolf, GIS manager and landscape ecologist, National Park Service - Chesapeake Bay 

Program, Annapolis, MD

Soil Disturbance Monitoring in the USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region....... 929

Steven W. Howes, Regional Soil Scientist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, Portland, OR

Northern Region Landbird Monitoring Program: A USFS-University of Montana 

Partnership Designed to Provide Both Short-term and Long-term Feedback for 

Land Managers..................................................................................................................... 936

R. Hutto, Professor and Director, Avian Science Center, Division of Biological Sciences, University of 

Montana, Missoula, MT

Skip Kowalski, Wildlife Program Leader, USDA Forest Service Northern Region, Missoula, MT

The Process of Indicator Selection .......................................................................................... 944

Barry R. Noon, Department of Fishery and Wildlife Biology, and Graduate Degree program in 

Ecology Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Kevin S. McKelvey, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Missoula, MT

Syntheses and Recommendations ...........................953

Using Information and Knowledge Required In Assessment and Management 

Applications for Sustainability............................................................................................ 954

Dr. Albert Abee, Planning Specialist, Ecosystem Management Coordination, National Forest 

System, USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC

Condition and Trends of Ecological and Economic Systems................................................ 956

Dr. Harold Bergman, Director, William D. Ruckelshaus Institute and the School of Environment 

and Natural Resources, University of Wyoming

Sidney Draggan, Ph. D., Ecologist, Senior Science and Science Policy Advisor, Office of Research 

and Development, U.S. Environmental protection Agency

Problems and Issues Across Institutions and Programs........................................................ 958

Douglas Powell, National Monitoring and Evaluation Coordinator, USDA Forest Service

Jim Wood, Director of Forest Resources Program, Natural Resources Canada, Pacific Forestry Centre

Toward a Unified Knowledge-based Society for Sustainability—Developing a 

Synthesis on the Methodological Level............................................................................... 960

Alec A. Schaerer
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 1

Atmosphere Systems and 

Processes
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Systematic studies of air pollution impacts on agriculture and natural ecosystems began about 50 years ago. 

Research on the effects of future climate conditions on 

crops and ecosystems is a more recent development. 

Trends in air pollution, concentrations of greenhouse 

gases, and future climatic changes are often referred to 

collectively as global change. Both greenhouse gases and 

air pollutants are primarily emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels, and air pollutants affect the capacity 

of ecosystems to sequester or emit greenhouse gases 

such as carbon dioxide, methane, or nitrogen oxides. 

One of the major objectives of the ecological research 

community is to increase our understanding of the 

ecological and environmental impacts of the combined 

effects of air pollution and climate change. Air pollution 

effects in the future will occur within an environment of 

continuing increases in CO2 and temperature and changing precipitation patterns. The major objective of this 

paper is to summarize what is known of likely nitrogen 

(N) and ozone effects on forests of the western United 

States under a changing climate. I will suggest likely 

future general ecosystem responses in the West based 

on empirical and manipulative studies in conjunction 

with simulation modeling results, although the latter are 

largely from other geographic areas and only include a 

subset of the important global change factors.

The Effects of Nitrogen Deposition, Ambient Ozone, and 

Climate Change on Forests in the Western U.S.

M.E. Fenn is a Research Plant Pathologist with the USDA Forest Service, Pacific Southwest 

Research Station, Riverside, CA

Abstract—Nitrogen (N) deposition in the western United States is most severe near 

major urban areas or downwind of agricultural regions, particularly in areas where 

confined animal feeding operations such as dairies or feedlots are located. Nitrogen 

saturated ecosystems are predominantly found in hotspots located within 60 km of 

urban or agricultural emissions source areas, where N deposition inputs are 20 kg ha-1

yr-1 or greater. Nitrogen deposition gradients are steep with rapidly decreasing deposition with increasing distance from the source area. More subtle ecological effects of 

N deposition, such as fertilization effects and changes in sensitive biotic communities 

(for example, lichens and diatoms) occur over a much wider area than the severely 

affected hotspots. Effects on these sensitive ecosystem components are observed with 

N deposition levels as low as 3 to 8 kg ha-1 yr-1. Visual ozone injury in the West is most 

severe in pine trees in forests in southern California and in the southern Sierra Nevada 

in central California. Recent ozone exposure data from passive monitoring networks 

demonstrate that elevated ozone exposures can occur as far as 250 km from emissions 

source areas. The geographic scope of the areas affected by ozone has increased in the 

past 30 years as human populations and urban zones have increased in size, and this 

trend is expected to continue. The combined effects of ozone and N deposition result 

in profound changes in plant physiological function, nutrient cycling, C storage, fuel 

accumulation, and susceptibility to insect attack. Predicting future ecosystem condition 

under scenarios of increasing CO2 and temperature and altered precipitation patterns 

presents a complex research problem, particularly for areas also exposed to ozone 

and N deposition. Research approaches including controlled studies, manipulative 

field experiments, simulation modeling, and a consideration of disturbances such as 

pests, introduced species, fire, and drought are needed. Combined biogeography-biogeochemistry simulation models (also known as dynamic general vegetation models) 

incorporating all of these interacting factors will be needed to advance our understanding of these complex interactions.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 

Global Change Stress Factors

The primary climate change and air pollution stress 

factors to be considered in this paper are: nitrogen 

deposition, ozone, changing temperature and precipitation patterns, increasing CO2

, drought, forest pest 

outbreaks, and fire (table 1). Nitrogen and ozone air 

pollution have been impacting forest ecosystems in 

southern California for the past 50 years and we know 

something of their effects (Fenn and others 2003b). 

Carbon dioxide concentrations have been gradually increasing over this same time period and severe drought 

periods have also occurred. From 1999 to 2004, drought 

has been particularly severe in southern California and 

the southwestern U.S. (Piechota and others 2004), and 

insect outbreaks and fire severity in forests of southern 

California increased dramatically in 2003 (Westerling 

and others 2004). These and other changes in southern 

California forests may portend future impacts on western forests under future air pollution and global change 

scenarios. However, much of our understanding of air 

pollution and climate change impacts on ecosystems 

are based on studies of single or possibly two factors. 

Multiple air pollution interactions are relatively poorly 

understood, and predictions of the combined effects of 

air pollutants within the context of increasing CO2, and 

climate change are even more uncertain.

The extent of forested areas in the West that will be 

exposed to phytotoxic levels of ozone is on the increase. 

Projected increased temperatures will likely contribute 

to higher rates of ozone formation (Beedlow and others 

2004). On a worldwide basis, the percentage of temperate and subpolar forests exposed to damaging levels of 

ozone (> 60 ppb) is predicted to increase from 29 to 60 

percent by the end of this century (Fowler and others 

1999). Nitrogen deposition is also expected to affect 

increasing acreages of forest in the West as urbanization and population growth continue in this fast growing 

region. The recent development of reliable passive 

monitors for measuring concentrations of gaseous pollutants (Bytnerowicz and others 2002) such as ozone, 

nitric acid vapor, nitrogen oxides, ammonia, and sulfur 

dioxide now makes it feasible to determine air pollution 

exposure patterns over large forested areas. For example, 

Table 1. Air pollution and climate change factors in the western United States and possible effects on forest ecosystems. The 

potential ecosystem effects mentioned are of necessity simplified generalizations based on past observations, experimental 

results, and current understanding. Actual ecosystem responses will depend on specific site factors and conditions, future air 

pollution and climate scenarios, and interactions between all these factors.

Factor Observed and potential ecosystem effects

Ozone Phytotoxic; reduced productivity; altered phenology of sensitive species; high 

concentrations can cause loss of stomatal control; premature foliar senescence and 

abscission; ozone predisposes plants to pests and diseases; reduced root:shoot 

ratio; geographic extent of damaging ozone levels expected to increase as 

urbanization and population growth continues in the West; ozone effects can cancel 

out CO2

-induced growth stimulation

Nitrogen deposition Increase in plant productivity; may partially offset growth decrease caused by ozone; 

reduced root:shoot ratio; may contribute to stand densification; N saturation 

conditions; elevated nitrate leaching and nitrogenous trace gas emissions from soil; 

soil acidification in highest deposition sites

Ozone + N deposition Reduced root growth, but increased stem growth and litter accumulation; increased 

fuel buildup

Increasing CO2 Increased plant growth; lower foliar nutrient concentrations; altered susceptibility to 

pathogens and pests; possibly altered litter decomposition rates; may reduce 

evapotranspiration losses

Increasing temperature Increased plant growth initially, but may exacerbate drought stress as temperature 

continues to increase; may enhance ozone formation

Changing precipitation patterns In early decades of this century is expected to increase forest growth, but in some 

areas of the West will likely lead to increased drought stress with more frequent 

extremely wet and dry years or because of drier summers

Drought Increased drought will often be the primary controller of ecosystem condition

Pests and pathogens Pest outbreaks are likely to increase with drought stress and the impacts of ozone, N 

deposition and increased CO2

Forest fires Severe forest fires may increase due to increasing drought stress and associated tree 

mortality from multiple stress syndromes and stand densification from long-standing

fire suppression efforts
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

from a network of passive ozone monitors throughout 

a large extent of the Sierra Nevada range in California, 

it was surprising to discover high summertime ozone 

concentrations in the Mammoth Lakes and Owens Valley 

regions of the eastern Sierra Nevada, approximately 165 

to 250 km from any major pollutant sources (Frączek and 

others 2003). These findings demonstrate that elevated 

ozone concentrations can occur in unexpected areas 

and that passive monitoring networks are effective in 

characterizing pollution exposures over broad forested 

areas. Throughfall deposition of nitrogen and sulfur, a 

surrogate measure of total dry and wet deposition, can 

also be measured more routinely in a large number of 

remote sites because of the recent development of ion 

exchange resin collectors that require infrequent sample 

collection (for example, every six months; Fenn and Poth 

2004). These monitoring tools, along with the ongoing 

development of portable active monitors of ozone and 

other pollutants, will continue to improve our capacity 

to relate air pollution exposures in the field to ecosystem 

effects.

We consider that in areas where drought severity increases significantly, this factor will override the impacts 

of other factors. Drought stress leads to tree mortality, 

either directly or due to predisposition of trees to pests 

and diseases. The end result is greater fire risk. Wildfire 

is the most important natural ecological disturbance in 

western North America (McKenzie and others 2004). In 

areas where soil moisture is only moderately reduced, 

increased atmospheric CO2 may compensate by reducing 

evapotranspiration fluxes. However, if ozone levels are 

high, stomatal control can be disrupted (Grulke 1999), 

thus counteracting any CO2-induced decrease in evapotranspiration. Ozone has also been shown to counteract 

the growth-stimulating effects of CO2 (Isebrands and others 2003). The combined effects of ozone and N (or either 

pollutant alone) results in lowered root production (Fenn 

and others 2003b), which is likely to increase drought 

stress as well. These examples illustrate the complexity 

involved in attempting to predict ecosystem responses 

to changes in multiple air pollution and climate change 

factors, particularly because the many interacting factors 

are expected to elicit dynamic patterns of ecosystem responses based on evolving atmospheric, environmental, 

and biological conditions.

Climate Change Scenarios for 

the Western United States

We base our discussion of future climate change 

scenarios on simulations from the two primary global climate models used by the National Assessment Synthesis 

Team (NAST 2000) of the US Global Change Research 

Program: the Canadian Climate Centre (CGCM1) and 

the Hadley Centre, United Kingdom (HadCM2) global 

climate models. Hereafter, they will be referred to as 

the Canadian and the Hadley models. Projected warming in the United States in the 21st century is 2.9oC for 

the Hadley model and 5.0oC for the Canadian model. 

Recently, results of models and expert opinion seem to 

be reaching a consensus on estimates for increased global 

temperature at the end of the century when CO2 concentrations are expected to double. Although, uncertainty 

remains high, projections are converging on a projected 

global warming of 3oC (Kerr 2004). Murphy and others 

(2004) reported a five to 95 percent probability range for 

a 2.4 to 5.4oC temperature increase with CO2 doubling 

and a most probable warming of 3.2oC.

Average warming over the Pacific Northwest is projected to reach 1.7oC by the 2030s and 2.8oC by the 2050s 

(table 2). Winter temperatures may rise 4.5 to 6.0oC by 

the 2090s (NAST 2000). Precipitation is expected to 

increase in most areas of the Pacific Northwest, mainly 

in the winter, with little change or a decrease in summer. 

The projected result of wetter winters and drier summers is decreasing water availability, especially in the 

Hadley model. By the 2090s, precipitation is projected to 

increase from a few percent to 20 percent in the Hadley 

model and from 20 to 50 percent in the Canadian model 

(NAST 2001).

In the Southwest (California, Nevada, Arizona, New 

Mexico, Utah, and western Colorado), average temperature is projected to increase 2oC by the 2030s and 4.5 to 

6oC by the 2090s (table 2). The models project increased 

precipitation in winter, especially over California where 

runoff is expected to double by the 2090s. In much of the 

Pacific Northwest and in California, the Mediterranean 

climate characterized by warm dry summers, already 

creates conditions of seasonal drought stress, making 

these ecosystems prone to periodic pest outbreaks and 

fire. These conditions may worsen with climate change. 

Some areas of the Rocky Mountains are projected to 

get drier, possibly resulting in loss of alpine meadows 

(NAST 2000), but both models project more extreme 

wet and dry years. Because of greater precipitation in 

winter, possibly more as rain, and because of greater 

runoff (less water storage) and more extreme dry years, 

increased drought stress must also be considered as a 

likely scenario, notwithstanding predictions of an overall 

increase in precipitation. Likely scenarios for the West 

indicate increases in forest cover in the West and that desert areas will decrease with a wetter climate, resulting in 

increased coverage by woody species (NAST 2000). Due 

to uncertainties about regional precipitation, projections 

also include the possibility of generally warmer and drier 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 

conditions in the West (NAST 2000, 2001). Simulated 

projections provide a consensus that fire severity and 

incidence in the West will increase whether precipitation increases or decreases in the region (McKenzie and 

others 2004; NAST 2001).

Predictions of Ecosystem 

Responses to Global Change

A consensus finding of the NAST report suggests that 

over the short term increased temperature, moisture, 

and CO2 is expected to result in C gains in most forest 

ecosystems in the coterminous United States (Aber and 

others 2001; NAST 2000, 2001). However, this partially 

depends on whether the fertilization effect of CO2 is sustained or whether downregulation or acclimation occurs 

after a period of increased CO2. Many initial studies of 

plants cultivated in pots in exposure chambers indicated 

that CO2 growth stimulation would be transitory. Long 

and others (2004) reviewed results from FACE experiments which suggest that the stimulatory growth response 

to CO2 may not be transitory. Mickler and others (2003) 

also reviewed several field studies that suggest that the 

CO2 response may be long lasting. However, this yet remains an open question. In a recent review, Beedlow and 

others (2004) concluded that increases in C sequestration 

by forests as a result of CO2 fertilization are unlikely 

because of other limiting factors such as soil N, air pollution, and water availability. Projections of forest growth 

increases in the next few decades of climate change must 

be tempered by the possibility or likelihood that increased 

drought stress may occur in some regions; a response 

that will counteract predictions of forest growth increase. 

Greater year to year variability in precipitation patterns 

are predicted, which suggests that severe drought years 

will also be more common. Furthermore, in a warmer 

climate, if more winter precipitation in montane regions 

of the West occurs as rain as opposed to snow, runoff will 

be more rapid, likely reducing soil water retention and 

further contributing to drought stress.

A complete analysis of forest ecosystem response to 

global change will, in many cases, require that ozone 

and N deposition also be included along with the other 

factors commonly considered in global change scenarios. 

Responses to N deposition and ozone can be on the same 

order as responses to climate change (Aber and others 

2001), which further illustrates the importance of considering these global change factors when evaluating 

ecosystem responses to changing atmospheric conditions. To date, no rigorous evaluations have been done 

of the combined effects of the primary climate change 

and air pollution factors such as increased temperature 

and CO2, N deposition and elevated ozone exposure, and 

changing precipitation patterns that may lead to greater 

drought stress. The effects of these interacting factors on 

disturbance factors such as changes in pest or pathogen 

outbreaks and fire frequency and severity also must be 

considered. Clearly these are complicated scenarios, and 

simulation modeling will be needed to address these 

myriad interactions and complexities. Combined biogeography-biogeochemistry models have been developed 

Table 2. Projected climate change scenarios for the western United Statesa.

Region Temperature increase Precipitation pattern Ecosystem impacts

Pacific Northwestb 1.7oC by the 2030s; Projections for the region Decreasing water availability

2.8oC by the 2050s range from a 7% decrease to a and presumably greater

13% increase; increases are drought stress, particularly

mainly in winter while over the longer term as

decreases or small increases temperatures increase

are in summer

Southwest2 2.0oC by the 2030s; Projected to be wetter and Likely increase in biomass;

4.5 to 6.0oC by the 2090s warmer; increased precipitation reduction in desert areas and

projected in winter, especially in increase in woodlands and

California; runoff may double in forests; if climate becomes drier

California by the 2090s; some opposite responses are likely; 

areas of the Rocky Mountains may fire frequency expected to 

get drier; more extreme wet and increase in either scenario 

dry years; there is also a chance that 

climate may get drier over much of 

the West during the 21st century

a Climate change scenarios are mainly based on the two primary global climate models used by the National Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST 

2000, 2001) of the US Global Change Research Program; the Canadian Climate Centre (CGCM1) and the Hadley Centre, United Kingdom 

(HadCM2) global climate models. b Pacific Northwest as here defined, includes Washington, Oregon and Idaho. The Southwest includes the states of California, Arizona, Nevada, 

Utah, New Mexico, and western Colorado.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

(referred to as dynamic general vegetation models) to 

evaluate ecosystem response to the interacting effects 

of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 (Aber and others 

2001). However, ozone and N deposition effects are not 

included in these models. Ozone exposure can disrupt 

stomatal control (Grulke 1999), and has been shown 

to cancel out the growth-promoting effects of CO2

(Isebrands and others 2003). Similarly, tree responses to 

global change factors may depend on whether N is deficient, or in sufficient or excess supply. These examples 

of ozone and N availability illustrate how the addition of 

an additional stress factor can completely change the net 

ecosystem effect of global climate change and demonstrate why all relevant factors must be considered as we 

seek to improve our capacity to predict future ecosystem 

effects of global change.

As reviewed by Aber and others (2001), interacting 

effects of various combinations of two or three of these 

factors (CO2, O3, precipitation, or temperature) have been 

simulated for representative eastern regions and interactive effects of increased CO2

 and ozone have been studied 

in FACE experiments (Percy and others 2002), but direct 

investigations of higher level interactions including the 

primary global climate change factors in combination 

with N deposition and ozone have not been reported. 

Because of the absence of model evaluations of ecosystem responses to these multiple stress factors associated 

with global climate change, in the following section of 

this paper we will make a preliminary attempt at predicting some of the possible Western forest responses 

to global change/air pollution by reviewing a case study 

in the San Bernardino Mountains in Southern California 

where many of these stress factors have impacted these 

forests to various degrees.

San Bernardino Mountains 

Case Study of Multiple Stress 

Impacts

The San Bernardino Mountains (SBM) case study in 

Southern California is the best empirical field study in 

the Western United States indicating forest ecosystem 

responses to major global change stress factors. Nitrogen 

deposition and ozone exposure have presumably been 

affecting the forest ecosystem in the SBM for at least 

the last 50 years. Ozone injury on ponderosa pine (Pinus 

ponderosa Dougl. ex Laws.), a major component of the 

mixed conifer forest in the SBM, was first reported in 

the early 1950s (Miller and others 1963, Parmeter and 

others 1962). Summer drought stress is a natural condition in this Mediterranean climate. Drought becomes 

particularly severe when successive unusually dry years 

occur, such as is the case since 1999. Over the past 50 

years CO2 concentrations have also been increasing and 

global warming is also underway, but these gradual increases have not yet exerted the effects that are expected 

to occur in future decades. Nitrogen deposition has 

caused major changes in biogeochemical cycling, and 

in conjunction with ozone, has caused significant physiological perturbations in ponderosa pine and California 

black oak (Quercus kelloggii Newb.). Because ozone 

exposure and N deposition are both high in the more 

exposed areas of the SBM, it is sometimes difficult to 

separate the effects of these two pollutants.

In the Western SBM, the physiological functioning 

of ponderosa pine trees has been dramatically altered 

in ways that are believed to increase its sensitivity to 

the main ecosystem stressors common to this region 

– drought and insect outbreaks (Fenn and others 2003b). 

Fine root production in ponderosa pine is dramatically 

reduced as is the number of annual foliage whorls that 

are retained. At Camp Paivika, the westernmost site in 

the SBM, little more than one annual whorl of foliage is 

retained on average. In essence, the pine trees function 

as “deciduous conifers” (Grulke and Balduman 1999). 

As a result of ozone-induced premature needle fall and 

N-induced greater foliar growth, litter accumulates to a 

much greater degree in the highly polluted sites. Nitrogen 

enrichment of the litter also inhibits long term litter decomposition. Nitrogen and ozone also result in a greater 

shoot:root ratio, resulting in greater C storage in bole and 

branches (Fenn and Poth 2001). The net result is that 

as long as fires are suppressed, air pollution exposure 

enhances fuel accumulation as litter on the ground and 

more dense forest growth aboveground. The increased 

fuel accumulation is expected to increase the already high 

fire risk. Reduced root growth and denser aboveground 

growth is also expected to increase drought stress and 

susceptibility to pests, which eventually leads to tree 

mortality and increased fire risk.

Widespread tree mortality and wildfire became a vivid 

reality in the SBM in the fall of 2003, during which time 

hundreds of thousands of trees were affected by the most 

severe drought conditions in the SBM in recorded history. 

Hundreds of thousands of trees died from drought, bark 

beetle infestations, and rampant forest fires. However, 

unusually high tree mortality, bark beetle outbreaks, and 

fire losses occurred throughout the SBM regardless of the 

level of ozone exposure or N deposition. This illustrates 

the key point that when drought stress becomes overly 

severe and prolonged, this stressor overrides other factors, including air pollution impacts. However, ozone 

and N deposition have been shown to further predispose 

trees to bark beetle attack in the SBM (Pronos and others 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

1999, Jones and others 2004), and as hypothesized above, 

decades of physiological air pollution impacts appear to 

worsen drought stress effects. Over the years, tree mortality in the SBM has been attributed to a multiple stress 

syndrome in which some or all of the following factors 

contribute to mortality: drought, ozone injury, N deposition and bark beetles (Fenn and others 2003b; Jones and 

others 2004). As tree mortality spreads over an area, this 

in turn increases the risk of severe fire losses. Fire risk is 

already high in many western forests as a result of nearly 

a century of successful fire suppression efforts, reminding us that projections of global change impacts must be 

made within the context of land use history.

Conclusions

Projections of climate change effects on forests over 

the first several decades of this century generally indicate 

increased forest growth in the United States. Precipitation 

is expected to increase over most of the West, although 

years of extremely high or low precipitation are also 

projected to increase. However, if assumptions of the 

fertilization effect of increased CO2 are incorrect or 

overestimated, projections of increased forest growth 

may be at least partially nullified. Furthermore, these 

projections do not include the effects of ozone and N 

deposition. Forest responses to climate change can be 

significantly modified in areas where these pollutants 

are elevated.

A high degree of uncertainty in projections of future 

forest responses to global change (here defined to include 

climate change and air pollution effects) is inevitable 

based on our current knowledge base and technological 

tools for evaluating these complex scenarios. Complexity 

is high because the effects of many interacting factors 

must be considered over large spatial and temporal 

scales. These interactions cannot be tested experimentally 

because all the requisite factors cannot be adequately 

manipulated or controlled, and because of the long time 

frame needed to observe patterns of forest ecosystem 

responses. Thus, simulation modeling approaches, 

bolstered by experimental data on the effects of single 

factors or various stressor combinations, are needed to 

evaluate future impacts.

Evaluation of effects will be simplified for areas not 

significantly affected by air pollution. For example, in 

the western U.S., air pollution impacts mainly occur in 

“hotspots” near or downwind of urban or agricultural 

emissions source areas, with relatively large areas of little 

apparent pollution effects. However, sensitive indicator 

organisms such as diatoms and lichens are affected over 

larger areas than previously expected, including areas 

with N deposition loadings as low as 3 to 8 kg ha-1 yr-1

(Fenn and others 2003a). The extent of forested areas in 

the West affected by ozone and N deposition is expanding 

because of rapid urbanization and increasing emissions 

from urban and agricultural emissions sources. Many 

of these emissions sources are also encroaching further 

onto lands adjacent to forested areas. Some areas, such 

as the Central Valley of California, are becoming more 

of a regional air pollution problem that affects the adjacent montane ecosystems (in this case the Sierra Nevada 

range). Realistic simulation model scenarios of future 

ecosystem responses to global climate change will be 

needed that include scenarios of high and low levels of 

ozone and atmospheric N deposition.

Common knowledge and empirical field results suggest that under conditions of prolonged or severe drought, 

this stress factor will override other global change factors. 

Thus, future drought conditions will be a major driver of 

ecosystem condition. Drought is projected to increase in 

some parts of the West, such as the Pacific Northwest. In 

the Northwest and in California where summer drought 

is typical, drought can become more common or severe 

even with a long term trend of greater precipitation. This 

is particularly true if extreme wet and dry years increase 

in frequency and if more precipitation in montane regions 

occurs as rain, resulting in rapid runoff and lower water 

retention. Increases in drought conditions will also lead 

to greater pest outbreaks, severe stand mortality and 

increased fire severity.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 

Introduction

In the United States, land management agencies such 

as the USDA Forest Service and various Department of 

Interior agencies (National Park Service, National Fish 

and Wildlife Service, Bureau of Land Management, 

and others) have responsibility to manage the country’s 

natural resources. These land managers are authorized 

through specific legislation to monitor various aspects 

of the resources they manage. However, monitoring the 

potential effects of air pollution on these natural resources 

is a relatively new challenge and one that invokes a 

shared responsibility between land managers, and state 

and federal environmental agencies. One result of this 

is uneven monitoring with variable coverage and quality between components. A recent National Research 

Council (NRC) report, Air Quality Management in the 

United States (National Research Council 2004, p. 11), 

identified “Protecting Ecosystem Health” as one of seven 

major air quality challenges facing the United States in 

the coming decade. Specifically the NRC report states:

“Although mandated by the Clean Air Act, the protection of ecosystems affected by air pollution has not 

received appropriate attention in the implementation of 

the act. A research and monitoring program is needed that 

can quantify the effects of air pollution on the structure 

and function of ecosystems. That information can be used 

to establish realistic and protective goals, standards, and 

implementation strategies for ecosystem protection.”

In this paper we review some of our experiences in 

protecting ecosystems from air pollution effects over the 

past 27 years since passage of the 1977 Amendments 

to the Clean Air Act. These Amendments formally addressed protection of some of the nation’s ecosystems 

by designating 156 mandatory Class 1 Areas (federally 

managed wilderness and national parks above certain 

minimum sizes that existed when the Act passed). For 

Class 1 areas, federal land managers are given an “affirmative responsibility” to protect their “air quality 

related values (including visibility).” Land managers 

have responded with a number of different monitoring 

activities. Many involve inventory of the resources and 

are site, region, and agency specific. Only one monitoring network, IMPROVE, collects national, multi-agency, 

quality controlled data actually used in the regulatory 

process. As such IMPROVE represents an example of the 

type of monitoring the NRC report requests. However, 

before reviewing IMPROVE and its data, we will briefly 

review air pollution effects on ecosystems identifying the 

components needed to develop critical levels and loads 

for their protection.

Conceptual Models of 

Air Pollution Impacts on 

Ecosystems

The USDA Forest Service, in response to the Clean 

Air Act, developed a conceptual model of air pollution impact on the Class 1 areas they manage (Fox 

and others 1989). This included an early effort to 

identify key monitoring activities needed for identifying and documenting the condition of Class 1 area “air 

Critical Loads and Levels: Leveraging Existing 

Monitoring Data

D. G. Fox, Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere, Colorado State University, 

Ft. Collins, CO

A. R. Riebau, USDA Forest Service, Research and Development, Washington, D.C.

R. Fisher, USDA Forest Service, Air Resources Program, Washington, D.C.

Abstract—A snapshot of current air quality in the National Parks and Wilderness areas of 

the US is presented based on data from the 165 site Interagency Monitoring of Protected 

Visual Environments, or IMPROVE program, and other relevant air quality monitoring 

programs. This snapshot is provided using the VIEWS web service, an on-line web-based 

data warehouse, analysis, and delivery system for visibility and atmospheric aerosols. 

The relevance of these data to inform development of a proposed new program of 

Critical Loads and Levels will be discussed.
10 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

quality related values” (Fox and others 1987). Recently, 

an interagency Federal Land Manager Air Quality 

Related Values WorkGroup (FLAG) reviewed, revised, 

and updated the early conceptual model (http://www.

fs.fed.us/r6/aq/natarm/Flag_final.pdf).

The conceptual model of Class 1 area air pollution 

impacts, as originally conceived, focused on:

visibility (aerosol concentrations in and around the 

Class 1 areas);

ozone, the only one of the nationally established 

“criteria” pollutants known to impact vegetation at 

concentrations routinely measured in Class 1 areas, 

and;

sulfur and nitrogen deposition because of both their 

potential for acidifying surface waters and soils as 

well as their nutrient value.

Certainly there are additional aspects of air pollution 

that have an impact, particularly deposition of metals 

and concentrations of “toxic” air pollutants; however, 

they tend to be isolated and site specific and so require 

special attention on a case by case basis.

•

•

•

•

At any rate the original conceptualization has proven 

robust. It is similar to the framework developed by the 

UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary 

Air Pollution and the International Cooperative 

Programme (ICP) it has spawned (ICP 2004). The 

ICP has taken the concept further by developing and 

mapping so called critical levels and critical loads. 

Critical levels and critical loads are determined on 

an ecosystem basis, considering ecosystem specific 

biology and biogeochemistry as well as sensitivities 

in conjunction with ambient concentrations and deposition levels. Critical values are defined as threshold 

levels above which significant aspects of the ecosystem may not be sustainable. Obviously, there are 

mixes of both science and value judgment that must 

go into quantifying critical loads and critical levels. 

Setting these numerical values is not the subject of 

this paper.

Here we wish to consider a general procedure that has 

been used in Europe (fig. 1, IPC 2004.) In this procedure, there are clear needs for data capable of providing 

statistically accurate spatial and temporal patterns of air 

•

Figure 1. The steps in constructing critical loads and levels as employed by the UNECE’s ICP (ICP 2004).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 11

pollution, data providing equivalently accurate spatial 

maps of ecosystems and land cover, and conceptual models able to link pollution levels with specific ecosystems 

impact mechanisms.

In this paper we will focus only on the first of these 

three requirements, namely the air quality monitoring 

data that are currently available in the United States. We 

will briefly review the current status of rural air quality 

in the United States, presenting a snap shot of present 

data from the IMPROVE, NADP, and ambient air quality networks. But first, to provide this snap shot, we will 

use the capabilities and resources of the VIEWS, which 

will be presented in some detail. Finally we will present 

a brief discussion of the relevance of this type of data to 

enhanced ecosystem impact monitoring and specifically, 

to the implementation of a US version of the ICP critical 

loads monitoring.

Views

The Visibility Information Exchange Web System 

(VIEWS) mission is to facilitate the analysis and 

use of aerosol and atmospheric pollution data in a 

public web-based environment to improve understanding and knowledge about air quality and its 

improvement. VIEWS is supported collaboratively by 

five RPOs that assist regional bodies of states and tribes 

in their efforts to address regional air quality problems in 

general and the EPA’s Regional Haze Rule in particular. 

VIEWS provides custom data products based primarily 

on IMPROVE data and designed to assist states in the 

regulatory process. Also available from VIEWS are 

supporting datasets of general interest to regional haze 

impacting National Parks, Wilderness areas, and other 

scenic areas.

To support the RPOs data requirements, the VIEWS 

web site is designed to provide organized, comprehensive, and convenient access to data and data products 

relevant to the Regional Haze Rule and general visibility 

issues. This information can be accessed by users in an 

ad-hoc manner and can be returned in a variety of formats, including graphically and as formatted text files. 

Most data products obtained from the VIEWS web site 

are generated dynamically from the VIEWS database.

Behind the scenes VIEWS supports a robust and 

efficient SQL database system designed to acquire 

and manage large amounts of air quality data. To date, 

datasets from IMPROVE and over 20 other monitoring programs are included. All data in VIEWS have 

undergone a series of integrity checks and are described 

by common metadata and data structure. This ‘data 

homogenization’ process produces a truly integrated 

database optimized for efficient retrieval and meaningful comparisons.

The Visibility Information Exchange Web System 

(VIEWS) home page, http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/

views, is shown in figure 2. Below the VIEWS logo are 

quick links to data resources and information, such as 

user’s guides, news and bulletins, and a current dataset 

inventory. The left-hand navigation bar provides links to 

the main web site sections. Descriptions of the content 

and capabilities of the main VIEWS sections are presented following the top-down organization of the left 

hand navigation bar.

Data and Metadata

The data and metadata section provides access to the 

integrated air quality datasets and related metadata in 

VIEWS. These resources are available via links from 

the All Data section or via the interactive Metadata and 

Query Wizard tools. The Metadata Browser is an interactive graphical browser used to display monitoring site 

locations and land features in a web-based Geographical 

Information System (GIS). This tool provides a map with 

zoom and pan capabilities, high-resolution geographical 

layers, and provides tabular metadata for single or multiple monitoring sites. The Metadata Browser incorporates 

the active layer concept common to GIS applications in 

which the user can select monitoring sites from an active 

geographical layer. For example, if the active Counties

layer is selected, clicking on the map within a given 

county will select metadata for all sites in that county. 

Unique to VIEWS is the ability to select a Class I area 

and display metadata for the representative IMPROVE 

monitoring sites, even if that site is not physically within 

the Class I area boundaries. In its tabular output, the 

Metadata Browser provides links to the Site Browser

tool. The Site Browser contains detailed monitoring site 

metadata, links to topographic maps, and photographs of 

many IMPROVE sites.

The Query Wizard tool allows users to retrieve data 

by selecting a subset of monitoring sites, measured parameters, and time ranges from the VIEWS integrated 

database. Users are provided options to download data 

and metadata from multiple monitoring programs and 

select from a variety of output formats, including text 

files and charts.

The ASCII Data page provides links to a variety of files 

containing raw IMPROVE aerosol data and associated 

metadata. These data are provided in simple text format 

to allow easy access to relevant information.

The Annual Summary section of VIEWS provides 

access to data products in support of states’ requirements to comply with the Regional Haze Rule. These 
12 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

data products include graphical summaries based on 

IMPROVE aerosol data. The Annual Summary data 

products are updated on a yearly basis as each complete 

year of IMPROVE data become available. Calculated 

visibility metrics catered to the Regional Haze Rule 

include the annual and 5-year mean of the best and 

worst 20 percent visibility days expressed in deciviews. 

Other parameters available from the Annual Summary 

are annual and seasonal means and a host of measured 

and calculated parameters based on IMPROVE aerosol 

data. Annual Summary data products are available via 

a series of graphical interfaces. These interactive web 

pages display visualizations of aerosol spatial patterns, 

composition information for specific data aggregations, 

trend lines of annual and multi-year time periods, and 

back-trajectories to indicate air mass source regions during specific days and haze events.

Rural Air Quality in the US

The primary data resource for VIEWS is the 

IMPROVE network. IMPROVE, the Interagency 

Figure 2. VIEWS home page.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 13

Monitoring of Protected Visual Environment program, 

is a comprehensive monitoring program, supported by 

the EPA and federal land managers, to assess visibility 

and the chemical aerosols that degrade it at the 156 Clean 

Air Act Class 1 areas in the United States. Details about 

the IMPROVE program can be found on the VIEWS 

web site. The network includes 165 sites measuring fine 

particle aerosols and their chemical speciation every 

third day through out the year. Optical monitoring is also 

conducted at a subset of the aerosol sites facilitating the 

linkage between aerosol measurements and visibility. 

IMPROVE has been operating since 1988, but has only 

expanded to its current 165 sites since 2002. Figure 3 

taken from the VIEWS metadata browser illustrates 

the current IMPROVE network along with the Class 1 

areas in the continental US. The IMPROVE data include 

over 40 measured chemical components of the measured 

aerosol and some 17 calculated values based on the measurements. These data, all coming from rural locations 

selected to be representative of Parks and wilderness, 

represent a unique resource to provide information about 

the status of rural air quality in the US.

Without going into the details of how visibility is related to the concentration of aerosol chemical species, a 

simple view of visibility quickly indicates the Class 1 areas that are most likely impacted by air pollution. Figure 

4 illustrates visibility from the latest year for which full 

data are available (2002). The current average, best (the 

best 20 percent of measured days) and worst (the worst 

20 percent) standard visual ranges are mapped. The 

pattern of pollution displayed by these maps suggests that 

the worst rural air quality in the US is expected in the 

eastern central US and on the southwestern coast. The 

cleanest air is anticipated in the western interior regions 

of the country.

In addition to visibility, the conceptual impact model 

mentioned above addresses the deposition of sulfur and 

nitrogen. While IMPROVE does not measure deposition, 

it does measure concentrations that are related to dry 

deposition through often complex aerodynamic considerations. A simplified approach, that has been widely used, 

is to relate the concentration to dry deposition through a 

parameter called deposition velocity. While deposition 

velocity ranges from zero to quite high numbers on a diurnal basis, nevertheless dry deposition is at least expected 

to correlate with concentration. The IMPROVE network 

measures sulfur and nitrogen as their ammoniated aerosol components because it is as ammonia sulfate and 

Figure 3. Class 1 areas and IMPROVE aerosol and visibility monitoring sites as presented in the VIEWS 

metadata browser.
14 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 4. Visibility reported in kilometers of standard visual range (SVR) indicates how far one can see in 

each location. SVR has an inverse relationship with the extinction coefficient which is related to aerosol 

chemical concentrations and humidity.

Figure 5. IMPROVE average measured ammonia sulfate and ammonia nitrate aerosol concentrations from 

2002.

Figure 6. NADP measured sulfate and nitrate wet deposition in 2002.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 15

ammonia nitrate that they generally are found in rural 

areas. Figure 5 shows the 2002 annual average concentrations of ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate.

A second component of deposition is so called wet 

deposition. Again while there are complex relationships 

with precipitation and wet deposition, it is reasonably 

approximated by measuring the chemistry of rain and 

snow collected in buckets. This is precisely what the 

National Atmospheric Deposition Program does at over 

200 sites located around the US (http://nadp.sws.uiuc.

edu/). Figure 6 presents wet deposition data from 2002 

for sulfate and nitrate ion. There is also a network of 

dry deposition measurements, the Clean Air Status and 

Trends (CASTnet) network, that measures in rural areas, 

ambient aerosol, and gaseous concentrations, as well 

as relevant meteorological parameters to calculate dry 

deposition. CASTnet data are available for download 

from VIEWS. Figure 7 presents sulfur and nitrogen total 

deposition based on NADP and CASTnet data at National 

Park sites around the country for 2002 (http://www2.

nature.nps.gov/air/Monitoring/drymon.htm).

Ozone is monitored by a large network of samplers 

in support of the EPA’s National Ambient Air Quality 

Standard for that pollutant. There are over 4,000 State and 

Local Air Monitoring Stations(SLAMS) in this network; 

however, primarily monitors are sited to measure impacts 

on human health and are thus strongly biased toward 

urban areas. More characteristic of natural resources, 

the National Park Service monitors ozone in a number 

of National Parks (http://www2.nature.nps.gov/air/

data/current/index.htm) and these results are displayed 

on the National Park Service web site in real time (fig. 

8). A comprehensive picture of current and forecast air 

quality is available from EPA’s AirNow web site (http://

www.epa.gov/airnow/index.html). Figure 9 illustrates 

AirNow’s presentation by showing the peak ozone concentrations that occurred on August 11, 2002.

Forest Service researchers have deployed networks 

of passive ozone samplers in forest areas, especially in 

California (Byterowicz and others 2003). These monitors 

have the capability of providing a more integral picture 

of ozone impacts on ecosystems.

Relevance to Critical Loads 

and Levels

The monitoring data that we have briefly outlined 

is needed before it will be possible to estimate critical 

loads. This is one, and only one component, of the critical 

steps in developing critical loads and levels. However, 

we hope we have illustrated that air quality monitoring 

data are available although not necessarily available in 

one location. The VIEWS web service has significant 

potential to display and allow manipulation of the data 

resources needed to project current air quality, the first 

of the three sets of knowledge displayed in figure 1 as 

being needed.

References

Bytnerowicz, A.; Arbaugh, M.J.;Alonso, R., Ed. 2003. Ozone 

Air Pollution in the Sierra Nevada: Distribution and Effects 

on Forests. (Developments in Environmental Science 2) 

Elsevier. London 402p.

Fox, Douglas G; Bernabo, J. Christopher; and Hood, Betsy. 

1987. Guidelines for Measuring the Physical, Chemical, and 

Biological Condition of Wilderness Ecosystems. General 

Technical Report RM-146. USDA Forest Service, Rocky 

Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Fort 

Collins, CO 80526. 48 pp.

Fox, Douglas G.; Bartuska, Ann M.; Byrne, James G.; Cowling, 

Ellis; Fisher, Rich; Likens, Gene E.; Lindberg, Steven E.; 

Linthurst, Rick A.; Messer, Jay; and Nichols, Dale S. 1989. 

A Screening Procedure to Evaluate Air Pollution Effects 

on Class I Wilderness Areas. General Technical Report 

RM-168. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest 

and Range Experiment Station, Fort Collins, CO 80526. 

36 pp.

International Cooperative Programme (ICP) 2004. Mapping 

Manual 2004 UNECE Convention on Long Range 

Transboundary Air Pollution. Manual on Methods and 

Criteria for Modeling and Mapping Critical Loads and 

Levels and air pollution effects, risks and trends. 202p. 

available from http://www.icpmapping.org

National Research Council 2004. Air Quality Management 

in the United States. Prepublication Draft, National 

Academy Press http://www.nap.edu Tracking number:12982108766322.
16 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 7. Total (wet-green and dry-blue) deposition at CASTnet sites in the US. Data are kilograms 

per hectare per year of sulfur and nitrogen deposition (from NPS web site http://www2.nature.nps.

gov/air/Monitoring/drymon.htm).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 17

Figure 8. The National 

Park Service ozone 

monitoring network 

presents the current 

status of ozone in 

the National Parks 

on their web page 

(http://www2.nature.

nps.gov/air/data/

current/index.htm).

Figure 9. EPA’s AirNow web site presents 

archived ozone data. Here a single 

day in August, 2002 is selected to 

show the peak Ozone concentrations 

that occurred on that day. Details are 

available at the web site (http://www.

epa.gov/airnow/index.html).
18 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Forest condition in Europe received increasing attention in the early 1980s as a response to growing concern 

that defoliation in parts of the forests in Europe could be 

caused by air pollution (Ulrich 1981, Schütt 1982). Since 

then forest condition has been a subject of scientific, political, and public debate, today being discussed within 

the wider context of sustainable forest management. The 

European-wide monitoring of forest condition was started 

19 years ago by the International Cooperative Programme 

on Assessment and Monitoring of Air Pollution Effects 

on Forests (ICP Forests) under the Convention on Longrange Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) under 

the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 

(UNECE) in close cooperation with the European Union 

(EU). Today, 38 European countries as well as Canada 

and the United States of America are participating, 

rendering the monitoring program one of the greatest 

of its kind worldwide. Canada and the United States of 

America do not use the same monitoring methods as the 

countries in Europe. However, they con­tribute national 

reports and are increasingly involved in the further development and joint application of monitoring methods in 

some fields of the program. The main objectives of the 

program are:

to provide knowledge of the spatial and temporal 

variation in forest condi­tion on the European scale and 

their relationships to environmental factors

•

to contribute to a better understanding of the relationships between the condition of forest ecosystems 

and both natural and anthropogenic stress factors (in 

particular, air pollution) throughout Europe using a 

network of sample plots

The infrastructure, data base, and results created by 

ICP Forests and EU per­mit increasingly contributes to 

forest policy at national, pan-European, and global level 

on the effects of climate changes on forests, sustainable 

forest management, and biodiversity in forests.

The Monitoring System

The above mentioned two objectives are implemented 

by means of a sys­tematic large-scale monitoring network 

and an intensive forest monitoring program. The largescale monitoring (Level I) aims to assess the spatial and 

temporal variation of forest condition across Europe. It 

is therefore pur­sued on a large number of monitoring 

plots. Given the large number of plots, only a limited set 

of parameters can be assessed and hence little evi­dence 

of cause-effect relationships can be expected at Level I. 

Cause-effect relationships are the target of the intensive 

monitoring program (Level II) with its much larger set 

of monitoring parameters. The labor and cost intensive 

monitoring restricts the number of Level II plots. The 

numbers and the locations of the Level II plots were chosen by each country according to international guidelines 

•

Monitoring Forest Condition in Europe: Impacts of 

Nitrogen and Sulfur Depositions on Forest Ecosystems

M. Lorenz, G. Becher and V. Mues are forest scientists at the Federal Research Centre for 

Forestry and Forest Products, Leuschnerstr. 91, D-21031 Hamburg, Germany

E. Ulrich, soil scientist, Office National des Forêts, Boulevard de Constance, F-77300 

Fontainebleau, France

Abstract—Forest condition in Europe has been monitored over 19 years jointly by the 

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the European Union 

(EU). Large-scale variations of forest condition over space and time in relation to natural and anthropogenic factors are assessed on about 6,000 plots systematically spread 

across Europe. This large-scale monitoring intensity is referred to as “Level I.” Causal 

relationships are studied in detail on about 860 intensive monitoring plots covering the 

most important forest ecosystems in Europe. This intensive monitoring is referred to 

as “Level II.” Crown condition shows a very high spatial and temporal variation which 

is explainable mainly by tree age, weather extremes, biotic factors, and air pollution. 

At open field stations close to Level II plots, results of wet deposition measurements 

indicate that sulfate and nitrate concentrations decreased from 1996 to 2001, whereas 

ammonium concentrations fluctuated during the same measuring period.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 19

and national priorities. The intensive monitoring aims 

at the ecosystem scale rather than at the European-wide 

scale.

At Level I, approximately 6,000 permanent plots are 

systematically arranged in a 16 x 16 km transnational 

grid. In a small number of countries the plots are arranged 

randomly instead of systematically, but the plot density 

corre­sponds to that of the 16 x 16 km grid. In parts of 

Scandinavia even the den­sity of the plots is smaller, 

which results in an under-representation of this part of 

Europe in the total Level I plot sample. On all Level I 

plots, annual crown condition assessments are carried 

out. Also, soil surveys were con­ducted on 5,289 plots, 

most of them in the years 1993 to 1995. A repetition of 

the soil survey is planned for 2006. Moreover, foliage 

surveys were conducted on 1,497 plots, most of them in 

the years 1992 to 1997.

For the intensive monitoring more than 860 Level 

II plots were selected in the most important forest ecosystems of the participating countries. The in­tensive 

monitoring aims at crown condition, soil condition, soil 

solution chemistry, foliage chemistry, tree growth, tree 

phenology, ground vegetation, meteorological condition, 

ambient air quality, and deposition. Not all of the respective monitoring activities are conducted on all Level II 

plots (table 1). The crown condition surveys on the Level 

II plots and on about half of the Level I plots include the 

assessment of several identifiable damage types such as 

insects, fungi, game, fire and abiotic agents. For Level II 

also the assessment of litterfall is foreseen and the respective method has been developed. All surveys within the 

program are based on harmonized methods documented 

in a regularly updated manual (Anony­mous 2001). Since 

the establishment of the program, a comprehensive data 

bank on a wealth of monitoring parameters has been built 

up. In each participating country, the responsibility for the 

surveys lies with the national forest services. All countries 

are represented in the Task Force of ICP Forests, which 

is chaired by Germany. For the coordination of parts 

of the monitoring, data management, evaluation, and 

reporting, Germany hosts the Programme Coordinating 

Centre (PCC) at the Federal Research Centre for Forestry 

and Forest Products (BFH) in Hamburg, Germany.

Crown Condition

Approach

Crown condition is a fast reacting indicator for numerous environmental factors affecting tree vitality. It 

is assessed by means of visual assessments of defoliation and discoloration. This is an inexpensive method 

permitting about 135,000 sample trees to be assessed 

annually on the approximately 6,000 plots at Level I. 

The drawback of this approach is that the assessment 

results are influenced by the subjectivity of different observers. Several data quality assurance measures were 

therefore introduced. At the national level, observer bias 

is estimated by analyzing training and test results as well 

as results of control assessments (Schadauer 1991, Köhl 

1991 and 1992). A high standard of training of the assessors can reduce ob­server bias. For individual species, the 

possibility to reach reliable results of the defoliation assessments at the national level has been shown (Eichhorn 

and Ackerbauer 1987, Dobbertin and others 1997). At 

the international level, the assessment results show 

systematic inconsistencies between different countries 

(Innes and others 1993). Several efforts are undertaken 

to identify and reduce such systematic inconsistencies by 

means of cross-cali­bration and inter-comparison courses 

as well as by means of photographic techniques.

Spatial and Temporal Variation

Trees of the six most frequent species having been 

assessed continu­ously at Level I between 1989 and 2002 

reveal in general increasing defo­liation; however, with 

great differences between individual species (fig. 1). The 

increase is very obvious for maritime pine (Pinus pinaster), as well as for holm oak (Quercus ilex and Quercus 

Table 1.

Surveys conducted Level I Level II

Crown condition Annually (5,942 plots) Annually (866 plots)

Foliar condition Once (1,497 plots) Every 2 years (855 plots)

Soil chemistry Once (5,289 plots) Every 10 years (865 plots)

Soil solution chemistry - Continuously (243 plots)

Tree growth - Every 5 years (859 plots)

Ground vegetation - Every 5 years (730 plots)

Atmospheric deposition - Continuously (499 plots)

Ambient air quality - Continuously (133 plots)

Meteorological condition - Continuously (202 plots)

Phenology (optional) - According to phenophases (59 plots)

Remote sensing (optional) - (157 plots
20 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

rotundifolia). Defoliation of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) 

and Norway spruce (Piceas abies) was higher in 2002 

than in 1989; however, showed large annual fluctuations 

over the period of observation. Scots pine recovered 

markedly from its high defoliation in 1994; however, 

its defoliation has been increasing again after 1998. No 

trend at all is revealed for the defoliation of common 

beech (Fagus sylvatica), as well as for pedunculate oak 

(Quercus robur) and sessile oak (Quercus petraea). The 

latter two species reveal an obvious recovery from a high 

of defoliation in 1998 (Lorenz and others 2003). The 

mean development of defoliation across Europe (fig. 1) 

does not reflect the high spatial variation of defoliation 

and its development, or any causes related to it.

In recent multivariate and geostatistical studies 

(Lorenz and others 2002), both the temporal and the spatial trends in mean plot defoliation of Scots pine (1,313 

plots) and common beech (399 plots) were evalu­ated in 

relation to:

the presence of biotic agents (insects and fungi) according to crown condi­tion assessments

the amount of precipitation from January to June 

provided by the Global Precipitation Climatology 

Centre (GPCC)

the deposition of S, NOx, and NHy as modeled by 

the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and 

Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air 

Pollutants in Europe (EMEP)

The only significant – but weak (r2 = 0.44) – statistical relationship found is the posi­tive correlation 

between defoliation of Scots pine and sulfur deposi­tion. 

This is explained by the high number of Scots pine 

plots in areas of previously high defoliation and sulfur 

•

•

•

depositions particularly in parts of Poland, the Czech 

Republic, Slovak Republic, and Baltic States. Figure 

2 shows the decrease in defoliation of Scots pine in 

these areas from 1994 to 1999. Comparatively small 

areas of increasing defoliation in Bulgaria and Norway 

were explained by weather extremes and Gremmeniella 

abietina attacks, respectively, by the national forest services. The temporal trends in the defoliation of common 

beech show a more heterogeneous spatial pattern with 

several spots of improvement and dete­rioration scattered 

across Europe. Frequently reported stressors influencing the condition of common beech are drought and 

frost. The spatial variation of defoliation of both Scots 

pine and common beech was largely ex­plained by stand 

age and by the variable “country.” The correlation with 

the latter variable reflects partly the above mentioned 

systematic methodological differences or differences in 

forest history between countries. The correlation between 

defoliation and stand age has been recognized since the 

first crown condition surveys. It seems plausible that this 

reflects at least partly the natural thinning of the crown 

with increasing tree age.

Nitrogen and Sulfur 

Depositions

Approach

In accordance with its political mandate under 

CLRTAP, ICP Forests is paying particular attention to the 

effects of air pollution on forests, among the multitude of 

other factors affecting forest condition. Indirect effects of 

Figure 1. Development of 

mean defoliation of the 

six most frequent species. 

Number of trees: Scots 

pine (Pinus sylvestris), 

2521; Norway spruce 

(Picea abies), 2988; 

pedunculate oak (Quercus

robur) and sessile oak (Q. 

petraea), 1237; common 

beech (Fagus sylvatica), 

2620; maritime pine (Pinus

pinaster), 1360; and holm 

oak (Quercus ilex and Q. 

rotundifolia), 2243.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 21

nitrogen and sulfur depositions via the forest soils have 

been described both by forest damage research (Ulrich 

1981) and by forest condition monitoring (De Vries and 

others 2001). On Level II plots, total atmospheric deposition under canopy is derived by adding throughfall 

and (for common beech because of its smooth bark) 

stemflow, while correcting for the effects of element 

interactions with the canopy (uptake and leaching) using 

bulk deposition. Bulk deposition is measured in the open 

field close to the Level II forest plots. It reflects the local 

air pollution situation and provides a reference for the 

measurements under canopy. The methods and results 

of a study of the temporal development and the spatial 

variability of nitrate (N-NO3), ammonium (N‐NH4), 

and sulfate (S-SO4) are described, based on the Level II 

bulk-deposition data expressed in terms of annual mean 

concentration. Results of an estimation of critical loads 

for nitrogen and acidity follow.

Concentrations of Sulfur and Nitrogen 

in Bulk Deposition

Bulk deposition expressed in terms of annual mean 

concentration in deposition samples was calculated as 

the volume weighted average in mg/l (Farmer and others 1987). For mapping concentrations across Europe, 

mean plot-wise ion concentrations over the years 1999 to 

2001 were calculated. For tracing and mapping trends, a 

trade-off had to be made between the length of the time 

span on the one hand and the amount of data (number 

of countries hav­ing contributed to the data pool) on the 

other hand. Taking into account these two aspects, the 

time period 1996 to 2001 was rated as most suitable. For 

the quantification of temporal changes, linear regression 

was used. With the years of assessment as predictor and 

annual mean ion concentration as target variable for each 

plot, linear relationships were obtained. The slopes of the 

Figure 2. Kriged temporal trends of defoliation 

(changes in defoliation in percent points) of 

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) from 1994 to 

1999 (from Lorenz and others, 2002).
22 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

linear equations were statistically tested and depicted in 

maps according to the following classification:

negative slope, error probability 5% and less

negative slope, error probability more than 5%

positive slope, error probability 5% and less

positive slope, error probability 5% and more

It must be stressed that conclusions about temporal changes in ion concentration based on such short 

time series can only be made with great reservations. 

Nevertheless, there is no doubt about temporal changes in 

annual concen­tration of nitrate, ammonium and sulfate in 

bulk precipitation. Likens and Bormann (1977) showed 

their evidence for watershed ecosystems in New England. 

Ulrich and Lanier (1999) developed a national indicator 

based on national volume-weighted mean concentrations, 

which was used by Ulrich (2003) for the French intensive monitoring network “RENECOFOR.” They found 

linear trends in nitrogen, sulfur, calcium, and mag­nesium 

concentration between 1992 and 2002.

In central Europe, there is an obvious cluster of 

plots with high volume weighted nitrate (N-NO3) concentrations ranging from > 0.5 to 0.65 mg/l. On about 

one-third of the plots in Poland and northern Germany, 

concentrations are > 0.65 to 2.6 mg/l. In the other parts 

of Europe, the concentrations are clearly lower, showing 

concentrations between 0.1 and 0.5 mg/l (fig. 3). The concentrations of ammonium (N-NH4

) and sulfate (S-SO4) 

show similar spatial patterns as those of nitrate, for example, a cluster of high concentrations in central Europe, 

with particularly high concentrations in Poland.

The temporal development of nitrate concentrations 

reflects the statistical uncertainties inherent to the short 

time series. Most plots do not show statistically significant changes in concentrations between 1996 and 2001. 

However, the share of plots with no significant decrease 

(69.0%) and the share of plots with significant decrease 

(15.3%) in concentrations sum up to 84.3%. This may be 

cautiously interpreted as indicating an overall decrease 

in nitrate depositions. The temporal development of ammonium is affected by similar statistical uncertainties 

resulting from the short observation period (Fischer and 

others 2004). Compared to nitrate and ammonium, the 

temporal development of sulfate concentrations shows a 

much more pronounced decrease from 1996 to 2001 (fig. 

4). Decreases in sulfate concentrations were found on 

89.4% of the investigated plots. On 44.8% this decrease 

is statistically significant. These plots do not reveal a 

pronounced spatial pattern. However, those plots showing increasing sulfate concentrations are clustered in 

Poland. The obvious decrease in sulfate concentrations 

is also evident in the graph of the temporal development 

of mean plot concentrations on all plots for each year 

•

•

•

•

from 1996 to 2001 (fig. 5). This reflects the successful 

reduction of sulfur emissions over more than two decades 

under CLRTAP of UNECE. Nitrate concentrations are 

also decreasing, but the decrease is less obvious than 

for sulfate. Linear regressions of the time series yield 

stable statistical parameters for both sulfate and nitrate. 

In contrast, this is not the case for ammonium concentrations. They show a fluctuating development over the 

period of observation.

References

Anonymous (2001): Manual on methodologies and criteria 

for harmonized sampling, as­sessment, monitoring and 

analysis of the effects of air pollution on forests. UNECE: 

Hamburg, Geneva.

De Vries, W.; Reinds, G. J.; van der Salm, C.; Draaijers, 

G.P.J.; Bleeker, A.; Erisman, J.W.; Auee, J.; Gundersen, P.; 

Kristensen, H.L.; Van Dobben, H.; De Zwart, D.; Derome, 

J.; Voogd, J.C.H.; Vel, E. M. (2001): Intensive Monitoring 

of Forest Ecosystems in Europe. Technical Report. UNECE/

EC: Geneva, Brussels, 177 pp.

De Vries, W.; Reinds, G. J.; Van Dobben, H.; De Zwart, 

D.; Aamlid, D.; Neville, P.; Posch, M.; Auee, J.; Voogd, 

J.C.H.; Vel, E. M. (2002): Intensive Monitoring of Forest 

Ecosystems in Europe. Technical Report. UNECE/EC: 

Geneva, Brussels, 175 pp.

Dobbertin, M.; Landmann, G.; Pierrat, J. C.; Müller-Edzards, 

C. (1997): Quality of crown condition data. In: MüllerEdzards, C., De Vries, W.; Erisman, J.W. (eds.): Ten years 

of monitoring forest condition in Europe. UNECE, EC: 

Geneva, Brussels, 7-22.

Eichhorn, J.; Ackerbauer, E. (1987): Nadelkoeffizient und 

Kronentraufe als Vitalitätsweiser zur Beurteilung des 

Gesundheitszustandes von Fichten (Picea abies Karst.). 

Forschungsber. Hess. Forstl. Versuchsanstalt 4.

Farmer, G.; Barthelmie, R.J.; Davies, T.D., Brimblecompe, P. 

and P.M. Kelly, 1987: Relation­ships between concentration 

and deposition of nitrate and sulphate in precipitation. 

Nature, 328: 787-789

Fischer, R.; Barbosa, P.; Bastrup-Birk, A.; Becher, G.; 

Dobbertin, M.; Ferretti, R.; Goldammer, J.G.; Haußmann, 

T.; Lorenz, M.; Mayer, P.; Mues, V.; Petriccione, B.; Raspe, 

S.; Roskams, P.; Sase, H.; Schall, P., Stofer, S.; Wulff, S. 

(2004): The condition of forests in Europe. Executive 

Report. UNECE, EC: Geneva, Brussels, in print.

Innes, J. L.; Landmann, G.; Mettendorf, B. (1993): Consistency 

of observation of forest tree defoliation in three European 

countries. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 25: 

29-40.

Köhl, M. (1991): Waldschadensinventuren: mögliche Ursachen 

der Variation der Nadel‐/_lattverlustschätzung zwischen 

Beobachtern und Folgerungen für Kontrollaufnahmen. Allg. 

Forst- Jagdztg. 162: 210-221.

Köhl, M. (1992): Quantifizierung der Beobachterfehler bei 

Nadel-/Blattverlustschätzungen. Allg. Forst- Jagdztg. 163: 

83-92.

Likens, G. E.; Bormann, H.F., 1977: Biogeochemistry of a 

forested ecosystem, Berlin, Heidelberg, Springer Verlag
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 23

Lorenz, M.; Mues, V.; Becher, G.; Seidling, W.; Fischer, R.; 

Langouche, D.; Durrant, D.; Bartels, U. (2002): Forest 

condition in Europe. Technical Report. UNECE, EC: 

Geneva, Brussels, 99 pp.

Lorenz, M.; Mues, V.; Becher, G.; Müller-Edzards, C.; 

Luyssaert, S.; Raitio, H.; Fürst, A.; Langouche, D. (2003): 

Forest condition in Europe. Technical Report. UNECE, EC: 

Geneva, Brussels, 114 pp.

Schadauer, K. (1991): Die Ermittlung von Genauigkeitsmaßen 

terrestrischer Kronen­zustandsinventuren im Rahmen der 

Österreichischen „Waldzustandsinventur.” Centralbl. f. d. 

ges. Forstwesen 108: 253-282.

Figure 3. Geographic variation of the volume weighted mean N-NO3 concentrations in mg/l between 1999 

and 2001 on 409 Level II plots.
24 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Schütt, P. (1982): Aktuelle Schäden am Wald – Versuch einer 

Bestandesaufnahme. Holz-Zentralblatt 108: 369-370.

Ulrich, B. (1981): Destabilisierung von Waldökosystemen 

durch Akkumulation von Luft­verunreinigungen. Der Forstund Holzwirt 36, 21: 525-532.

Ulrich, E.; Lanier, M., 1999: Evolution de la qualité des 

précipitations totales de 1993 à 1998 en France – utilisation 

Figure 4. Geographic variation of the linear trends of the volume weighted mean S-SO4 concentrations in 

mg/l between 1996 and 2001 on 285 Level II plots.

de nouveaux indicateurs nationaux. La Santé des Forêts 

(France) en 1998, Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Pêche 

(DERF-Département de la Santé des Forêts): 77-80.

Ulrich E., 2003: RENECOFOR – 11ème bilan annuel, année 

2002: Office National des Forêts, Direction Technique, 

12 pp.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 25

Figure 5. Development of the volume weighted mean concentrations 

in mg/l between 1996 and 2001.
26 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Ozone and Plant Response

Ozone is recognized as the air pollutant most harmful to vegetation (de Vries and others 2003, Krupa and 

others 2001, US EPA 1996). Yet it has been difficult to 

identify metrics that relate ambient ozone exposure to 

plant response. Active monitoring using EPA equivalency 

protocols for continuous ozone monitoring summarizes 

continuous data observations as hourly averages. Since 

almost all of the routine ozone monitoring of ozone in the 

US and Canada is recorded and/or summarized as hourly 

averages, it seems logical that these values have been 

used in the determination of a metric for the air quality 

standards. Various metrics of the one-hour average ozone 

concentrations have been used to summarize ozone to 

relate to vegetation response. Research has determined 

(Musselman and others 1994, Musselman and Massman 

1999, US EPA 1996) that the ozone parameters most 

closely related to vegetation response are those that:

• Are cumulative throughout the growing season,

Preferentially weight the higher concentrations, and

Include time periods when stomata are open and ozone 

is taken up into plant tissue, and when the plant tissue 

is most sensitive to ozone.

The hourly ozone values can be used in calculation 

of cumulative ambient exposure of ozone to vegetation 

throughout a growing season. Also, the hourly ambient 

ozone concentration database can be used to quantify 

the high concentrations of ozone that impact vegetation. 

This is often accomplished by using a threshold value and 

considering concentrations equal to and above or only 

above that value in the index. Determination of stomatal 

response of vegetation requires stomatal conductance 

data not associated with ambient ozone concentrations 

but important for ozone flux into plant tissue. Stomatal 

conductance data are known only for a few plant species, and the data were mostly obtained from controlled 

environment experiments rather than from plant growing 

under natural conditions in the field. Thus, it is difficult 

to estimate ozone flux for a large diversity of vegetation 

•

•

Critical Levels as Applied to Ozone for North American 

Forests

Robert C. Musselman, Plant Physiologist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—The United States and Canada have used concentration-based parameters 

for air quality standards for ozone effects on forests in North America. The European 

critical levels method for air quality standards uses an exposure-based parameter, a 

cumulative ozone concentration index with a threshold cutoff value. The critical levels 

method has not been used in North America, but efforts are now being initiated in 

the United States and Canada to use the critical loads concept for nitrogen and sulfur 

deposition to forest and aquatic ecosystems. It is expected that if this effort is successful, the critical levels approach might also be used for ozone effects on forests in North 

America. Although the European exposure-based or the newer flux-based critical levels 

standard may seem to be an improvement over the concentration-based United States 

and Canadian standards in relating plant response to ozone, the most appropriate ozone 

critical level index for plant response includes a flux-based parameter that incorporates 

plant defensive mechanisms. Forest plots and monitoring protocols are operational in 

Europe to obtain data used in determining critical levels for ozone. Similar plots should 

be established in the United States and Canada to begin collection of field data needed 

for determining critical levels for ozone in North America. The plots should be established in coordination with current Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) plots in the United 

States and long-term forest health plot networks in Canada. Current North American 

ozone monitoring networks should be expanded to obtain initial ozone data for these 

forest health monitoring plots.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 27

and changing environmental and ozone conditions across 

the United States. An additional factor in the usefulness 

of ozone flux and its relationship to plant response is 

that defensive mechanisms within plant tissue must be 

considered in formulating a flux-based standard.

It is important to clarify the definitions of concentration, exposure, flux, and dose when discussing ozone 

and plant response, since these terms have been given 

different meanings over the past few decades (Fowler 

and Cape 1982, Grünhage and others 1999, Runeckles 

1974). The definitions here have recently been adopted 

by the US EPA (2004).

Concentration of ozone is the number of moles of 

ozone per unit volume of air.

Exposure is the product of the concentration of ozone 

and the length of time that vegetation is exposed to 

that pollutant.

Stomatal flux is the rate of uptake of ozone through 

stomata.

Dose is the instantaneous stomatal flux of ozone integrated over time, or the total amount of pollutant taken 

into plant tissue through stomata over time.

Effective flux is the balance between flux and defense, 

since detoxification mechanisms are present in leaf tissue resulting in not all the ozone being taken up being 

associated with vegetation injury or damage.

Effective dose is the integral over time of the effective flux.

As one moves down this list of ozone parameter indices, the relationship of the parameter to plant response 

increases. Therefore, it is desirable to utilize ozone 

metrics for air quality standards to protect vegetation 

that use parameters nearer the bottom than nearer the 

top of the list.

Current U.S. Air Quality 

Standard

The United States has implemented the Clean Air 

Act (CAA) amendments of 1970 (Public Law 91-604) 

and the Environmental Protection Agency is required to 

promulgate primary and secondary National Ambient Air 

Quality Standards (NAAQS). The primary NAAQS is to 

“protect the public health, allowing an adequate margin 

of safety;” and the secondary NAAQS is to “protect the 

public welfare from any known or anticipated adverse 

effects associate with the presence of such air pollutant 

in the ambient air.” According to the CAA, “public welfare” includes, but is not limited to “soils, water, crops, 

vegetation, manmade materials, animals, wildlife, visibility and climate.”

•

•

•

•

•

•

NAAQS are required to be reviewed every five years. 

A summary document called the Air Quality Criteria 

Document (AQCD) is prepared based on the latest scientific knowledge and is extensively peer reviewed and 

open to public review. From the background AQCD 

document, the EPA Office of Air Quality Planning and 

Standards prepares an analysis (OAQPS Staff Paper) that 

is reviewed by an independent review board, the Clean 

Air Scientific Advisory Committee (CASAC). CASAC 

provides a “closure letter” to the EPA Administrator stating their recommendation for the ozone standard.

The first NAAQS for ozone was in 1971. Additional 

AQCDs for ozone have been prepared in 1978, 1984, 

1993, and 1996 with subsequent NAAQS determined 

based on the scientific information in the AQCDs. Based 

on the latest scientific information in the 1996 AQCD 

for ozone ”Air quality criteria for ozone and related 

photochemical oxidants” (http://cfpub2.epa.gov/ncea/

cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=2831 ), the EPA prepared 

a OAQPS Staff Paper published in 1996 that recommended an exposure-based secondary standard of the 

SUM06, 12 hr/day, 3-month index based on vegetation 

response to ozone. This index incorporates a cumulative 

exposure based ozone parameter using a threshold ozone 

concentration, and it accounted for the time period during the day when stomatal flux is expected to be at its 

maximum. This recommended secondary standard was 

different from the recommended concentration-based 

primary standard.

The CASAC reviewed the 1996 AQCD and the 1996 

OAQPS Staff Paper, but could not reach a consensus and 

“come to closure” on the form of a secondary standard 

for ozone. Therefore, the EPA Administrator’s decision 

in 1996 was that the secondary standard for ozone should 

be the same as the primary standard; reasoning that the 

new more stringent primary standard for public health 

would provide sufficient protection for public welfare 

(vegetation). Thus, the current United States primary 

and secondary ozone NAAQS (promulgated July 1997) 

is 0.08 parts per million (ppm) for an 8-hr average. The 

standard is exceeded when the fourth highest daily 8-hr 

average for ozone over the last three years is greater than 

0.08 ppm (0.084 effective when rounded). This United 

States NAAQS for ozone is not an exposure-based standard, since it is not cumulative. Nor does it preferentially 

weight the higher concentrations or consider stomatal 

uptake. Thus, the relationship between the concentration based NAAQS and vegetation response is weak. 

Nevertheless, improving air quality by reducing ozone 

to become compliant with the current NAAQS will 

likely reduce ozone impact on vegetation, since control 

strategies will likely reduce the higher hourly ozone 

concentrations.
28 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

For areas in non-compliance with NAAQS, the 

responsible local, tribal, or state air quality regulatory 

agencies develop “State Implementation Plans” (SIPS) 

which identify air pollution control strategies that will 

be implemented to reduce concentrations of the pollutant 

below NAAQS. The CAA also requires the “Prevention 

of Significant Deterioration” (PSD) to “protect the public 

health and welfare from any actual or potential adverse 

effect from... air pollution...not withstanding attainment 

and maintenance of NAAQS.” The PSD section of the 

CAA provides protection of Air Quality Related Values 

(AQRVs) for certain national parks, wildlife refuges, 

and wilderness areas, through establishment of ceilings 

on additional amounts (increments) over baseline levels 

in these areas (called Class I). The New Source Review 

(NSR) process is used to evaluate the potential affect of 

pollutant sources on primary and secondary receptors.

Although the US has not adopted an exposure-based 

NAAQS, some federal agencies in the US are utilizing 

exposure-based parameters to evaluate ozone effects on 

Class I areas in their NSR analysis of ozone effects on 

forest vegetation, in response to the requirements of the 

National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA). A web 

based software tool (http://216.48.37.155/calculator/calculator.htm ) has been developed to summarize ambient 

hourly ozone data to determine the W126 and N100 (as 

recommended by FLAG 2000), SUM06, maximum daily 

8-hour averages values, percentile distributions, average 

concentration for each hour of the day, and frequency 

distributions for use in this evaluation. Using results from 

experimental studies in open top chambers, the W126 

and N100 values are used as inputs to estimate biomass 

reductions of key forest species from ozone exposures.

A new External Review Draft AQCD for ozone will be 

available in October 2004 (http://cfpub2.epa.gov/ncea/

cfm/recordisplay.cfm?deid=22411 ). The 2004 AQCD 

again documents that vegetation is very sensitive to 

ozone and that plant response shows a closer relationship to cumulative indices that preferentially weight 

the higher concentrations. The document also discusses 

ozone flux, effective flux, and effective dose in detail, 

and reviews a growing number of literature citations 

that now recognize that ozone taken up into plant tissue is more closely related to vegetation response than 

is ambient ozone concentration, regardless of how the 

ambient ozone concentrations are summarized (Karlsson 

and others 2003, Massman and others 2000, Musselman 

and Massman 1999). Nevertheless, the United Sates has 

always used a concentration basic metric to determine 

air quality standard for ozone, and the primary and secondary NAAQS for ozone have always been the same. 

Whether the forthcoming summary EPA Staff Paper 

and CASAC review recommends an exposure, dose, or 

effective dose-based secondary NAAQS for ozone that 

is different from the current concentration-based primary 

standard, and whether the EPA Administrator agrees, 

remains to be determined. However, changing from a 

concentration-based standard to an exposure, dose, or 

effective dose-based standard seems unlikely.

Current Canada Air Quality 

Standards

Canada-Wide Standards (CWSs) are established by 

the federal government and provincial and territorial 

Environment Ministers working together under the framework of the “Canada-wide Accord on Environmental 

Harmonization” (http://www.ccme.ca/ccme ). CWSs 

are developed using sound scientific foundation and 

a risk-based approach. The CWSs developed are presented to the Provincial Ministers. The “Canada-wide 

Environmental Standards Sub-agreement” sets standards 

for the provincial governments to jointly agree on priorities to develop standards and to prepare complementary 

work plans to achieve those standards. Current ozone 

Canada-Wide Standards (CWSs) for human health and 

the environment, established in 2000, is 65 ppb, fourth 

highest daily maximum 8-hour average concentration, 

three-year average. Compliance is required by 2010, 

with a review scheduled for 2005. Note that the Canadian 

standard is similar to that for the United States, demonstrating that the two countries closely coordinate their 

ozone air quality standards. It is expected that Canadian 

regulators will also retain concentration-based CWSs 

based on ambient hourly ozone concentration data. As 

with the United States NAAQS, the CWSs for Canada 

are concentration based. They are not cumulative nor do 

they preferentially weight higher concentrations, and they 

do not consider stomatal uptake into plant tissue.

Current Europe Air Quality Standards

The European Union uses critical levels or critical loads as a basis for evaluating pollutant effects on 

vegetation and the subsequent setting of exceedance 

levels. The basis for the critical levels/loads concept is 

the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe 

(UNECE) Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air 

Pollution (CLRTAP) that provides international cooperation for air pollution abatement in the European Union. 

CLRTAP provides a framework for scientific cooperation 

and policy formulation and identifies specific obligation 

of the participating parties. Both the United States and 

Canada are parties of CLRTAP, but their participation 

has been inactive. CLRTAP established a Working Group 

on Effects (WGE). The WGE established a number of 

International Cooperative Programmes (ICPs), Working 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 29

Group Task Forces for providing a scientific basis for 

determination of critical levels/loads of pollutants for 

Europe. Critical loads are mapped by the ICP Modeling 

and Mapping Task Force based on scientific input from 

the various specialty ICP Work Group Task Forces, such 

as ICP-Forests and ICP-Vegetation. The information 

provided by the ICP Work Groups provides a sound scientific basis for the Co-operative Program for Monitoring 

and Evaluation of the Long-Range Transmission of Air 

Pollutants in Europe to formulate regulatory protocols 

for Europe.

European protocols use critical loads and/or critical 

levels to evaluate plant response to pollutants. The term 

critical level is generally used for gaseous air pollutants 

such as ozone which do not accumulate in plant tissue 

or ecosystems, while the term critical loads is used for 

pollutants such as nitrogen and sulfur which are deposited in ecosystems and accumulate over time to result 

in a cumulative loading on vegetation and ecosystems. 

Although the effects of ozone are cumulative, the pollutant itself is not cumulative in plant tissue or on non-plant 

surfaces. The critical loads and critical levels standards 

are exposure based, since they consider loading of a 

pollutant concentration over a period of time such as a 

growing season.

A critical load is defined as “the quantitative estimate 

of an exposure to one or more pollutants below which 

significant harmful effects on specified sensitive elements 

of the environment do not occur according to present 

knowledge” (UNECE 2004, chapter 5). Critical levels 

have been defined as “the atmospheric concentrations of 

pollutants in the atmosphere above which adverse effects 

on receptors, such as human beings, plants, ecosystems, 

or material may occur according to present knowledge 

(Karenlampi and Skarby 1996, UNECE 1996). Critical 

loads for pollutants have been defined similarly in the US 

by Federal Land Managers as “the concentration of air 

pollution above which a specific deleterious effect may 

occur” (FLAG 2000). More recently, the critical levels 

definition in Europe has been modified for vegetation 

to “concentration, cumulative exposure, or cumulative 

stomatal flux of atmospheric pollutants above which 

direct adverse effects on sensitive vegetation may occur 

according to present knowledge” (UNECE 2004, chapter 

3). Note that “cumulative stomatal flux” could be called 

“dose” as defined above.

It is recognized that ozone is the most important regional air pollutant in Europe (de Vries and others 2003). 

Although the United States, Canadian, and European 

air quality standards all use hourly ambient ozone as 

a basis for calculation the ozone metric, the European 

critical loads concept is different from the ambient air 

quality standard used in the United States and Canada. 

The Europeans have adopted the AOT40 parameter as 

the index to determine critical levels for exposure of 

vegetation to ozone. The AOT40 is the sum of differences between the hourly ozone concentrations in ppb 

and 40 ppb in each hour when the ozone concentration 

exceeds 40 ppb. Since the AOT40 parameter is exposure 

based, utilizes a threshold, and is accumulated over the 

season for determination of critical levels, an AOT40 

critical level should be more closely related to vegetation 

response than a concentration-only based standard like 

that used in the United States and Canada.

The European International Cooperative Programme 

(ICP) on Effects of Air Pollution on Natural Vegetation 

and Crops currently uses three different cumulative exposure methods to evaluate critical loads for ozone for 

crops, forests, and natural vegetation (http://icpvegetation.ceh.ac.uk). All three methods use hourly ambient 

ozone concentrations at the top of the canopy as the 

basis for quantifying the ozone critical loads for the 

evaluation. Plant response data for determining effects of 

critical levels of ozone are collected at or near ICP plots, 

or from controlled fumigation experiments. The three 

cumulative exposure based methods used for ozone are 

the Level I (AOT40) concentration based critical level, 

the VPD-modified concentration based critical level, and 

the Level II stomatal flux based critical level (UNECE 

2004, chapter 3). The flux-based approach is used only 

for wheat and potato crops, since flux data are lacking 

for other crops and for forest trees and semi-natural 

vegetation. The concentration-based approach is used 

for all other agricultural crops, horticultural crops, seminatural vegetation, and forest trees. For forest trees, the 

critical level for ozone is an AOT40 of 5 ppm-h, using 

the hourly concentration means at the top of the canopy 

(20m) from 1 April to 30 September. The VPD-modified 

concentration-based critical level is used only for injury 

for selected crops.

It is important to distinguish between injury and damage to vegetation from ozone. The definitions listed here 

have been adopted by the US EPA (2004).

Injury is leaf necrosis, premature leaf senescence, 

reduced photosynthesis, reduced carbohydrate production and allocation, reduced growth, and/or reduced 

plant vigor.

Damage is all effects that reduce the intended value 

or use of the plant. Included in this definition are 

reductions in economic, ecologic, or aesthetic value 

(US EPA 2004). Damage can be either yield loss or 

crop loss:

Yield loss is reduction in quality or quantity of the 

harvestable portion of a agricultural or forest crop 

from ozone.

•

•

•
30 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Crop loss is the reduction in the monetary value of 

the forest or agricultural crop due to ozone.

The European Level I assessment of ozone effects on 

vegetation is an exposure based analysis of injury. It is not 

appropriate to use the Level I assessment for yield loss, 

but it only should be used as an indication of relative risk 

of vegetation to ozone (Fuhrer and others 1997, Grunhage 

and others 1999, Karenlampi and Skarby 1996, Karlsson 

and others 2003). Level II assessment is designed to estimate effects of ozone on vegetation based primarily on 

ozone uptake and yield response models (Karlsson and 

others 2003). Stomatal flux data are used for this assessment. This dose-based critical level is beginning to be 

used in Europe to determine yield reductions for wheat 

and potato crops. However, the AOT40 exposure based 

critical level is now being used in Europe to determine 

yield loss (but not crop loss) for agricultural and horticultural crops, and for growth reductions in forest trees 

and semi-natural vegetation (UNECE 2004).

Although the dose-based approach would be expected 

to provide a better relationship between ozone and plant 

response and provide information to determine yield loss, 

limited data are currently available to implement this 

method. The Europeans are beginning to utilize stomatal 

flux and dose but not effective flux nor effective dose 

to determine critical levels for wheat and potato crops. 

Even where data are available for wheat and potato, the 

usefulness of this approach will be limited by lack of 

data on defensive mechanism that can greatly affect plant 

response once ozone uptake has occurred. Defensive 

mechanisms within plant tissue determine whether or 

not ozone taken into leaves is detoxified before it can 

injure plant tissue. Efforts have begun to quantify the 

defensive mechanisms in ozone plant flux response 

models (Barnes and other 2002, Massman and others 

2000, Massman 2004, Plöchl and others 2000), but these 

defensive algorithms are not utilized in the current critical 

level models, and European efforts have concentrated on 

stomatal flux and dose when not using exposure-based 

ozone parameters, but not on effective flux or effective 

dose-based models.

Linking European ICP-Forests 

Plots and Forest Health 

Monitoring Plots in the United 

States and Canada to Critical 

Levels

Extensive networks of plots for forest health monitoring exist in the US, Canada, and in Europe. An extensive 

• network for monitoring ambient ozone also exists in 

North America and Europe. Many of these monitors are 

in urban or suburban areas away from forested ecosystems, and may not be representative of ozone in remote 

forest ecosystems. Nevertheless, urban areas are continuing to expand in rural forested areas and the number 

of rural ozone monitoring stations has increased. Using 

statistical techniques, urban and rural ozone monitors 

can be used in combination to provide reasonable ozone 

exposure estimates across the landscape (Fraczek and 

others 2003, Lee and Hogsett 2001, Lefohn and others 

1997).

It is important to obtain ozone data as near each forest 

health monitoring plot as possible, or to develop reasonable statistical estimates of ozone exposure at those sites. 

This is especially important in complex terrain where 

ozone can vary considerably over a short geographic area. 

Ozone monitors should be place in open areas exposed 

to prevailing winds to accurately determine ambient 

ozone levels. Samplers placed within a canopy will not 

be monitoring ozone to which the forest ecosystem is 

exposed, since ozone will already be absorbed by plant 

or non-plant surfaces before it reaches the sampler.

Protocols for air quality monitoring in North America 

and Europe require continuous monitoring, but only 

hourly averages of the continuous data are utilized for 

calculating ozone statistics for air quality standards. The 

hourly average ambient ozone concentrations are summarized as an 8-hr average for the concentration-based air 

quality standards in North American and as an AOT40 for 

the exposure-based critical levels in Europe. The hourly 

average concentrations are also utilized in the dose-based 

critical loads model used in Europe.

Canada has supplemented their urban active monitoring network with an extensive network of passive ozone 

samplers located in remote areas (Cox and Malcolm 

1999). Similarly, extensive passive ozone networks have 

been established in California (Arbaugh and Bytnerowicz 

2003) and in the Carpathian Mountains of Central Europe 

(Bytnerowicz and others 2002, 2004). The Carpathian 

network samplers were installed near forest health 

monitoring plots to assess ozone effects on forest health. 

The passive samplers are also being tested in Western 

Europe, and these have been installed at or near intensive 

monitoring plot locations (de Vries and others 2003). The 

advantages of the passive networks are low cost and no 

requirements for electric power allowing remote installation. The major disadvantages are 1) plants are sensitive 

to peak ozone concentrations (Musselman and Massman 

1999) that are not captured in the cumulative passive 

ozone data, and 2) that since determination of exceedances of air quality standards and critical levels utilize 

hourly ozone data, passive data, which only calculates 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 31

average concentration over a period of time, cannot be 

used to determine these exceedances.

Attempts have been made to calculate or model hourly 

average ozone data based on cumulative passive data (de 

Vries and others 2003, Krupa and others 2001, Tuovinen, 

2002). It is generally understood that these models must 

be calibrated using active sampling data at each sampling 

site (Krupa and others 2001, Tuovinen 2002). This is 

because of the large amount of spatial (latitude, altitude, 

terrain) and temporal (seasonal, diurnal, meteorological) 

variability in ozone between sites. Relating active to 

passive data is particularly problematic in complex terrain. The models also do not account for the technical 

errors inherent with operation and analysis of the passive 

samplers (Tuovinen 2002). Nevertheless, some limited 

success has been made to determine ozone exposure 

dynamics based on passive sampling data when on-site 

calibration with active samplers and meteorological data 

has been deployed. The samplers can be placed in or near 

forest health plots to determine ozone loading at these 

sites. In areas where passive monitors suggest that ozone 

loading is high, active ozone monitors should be installed 

to relate forest condition and/or ozone symptomology to 

the dynamics of ozone exposure.

The European CLRTAP and ICP-Forests has been relatively successful in determining exposure-based critical 

levels for ozone effects on forest ecosystem in Europe. 

A basis for this success is the establishment of a network 

of field plots for monitoring ecosystem functioning and 

the effects of air pollution on the forest condition. The 

approach has been to describe spatial and temporal variation in forest condition (Level I), and to understand the 

relationship between forest ecosystem condition and air 

pollutants (Level II) (Haussmann and Lorenz 2004). The 

objective of these data is to provide information to ICP 

Modelling and Mapping for formulate policy to respond 

to air pollution stress.

The ICP-Forests network of monitoring plots has proven to be a valuable resource for determination of critical 

loads of nitrogen and sulphur in Europe. Consequently, 

Federal Land Managers in the United States and Canada 

are actively evaluating the critical loads approach for 

nitrogen and sulphur in North America. Researchers 

are beginning to develop critical loads for the northeast 

United States and southeast Canada (http://www.ecosystems-research.com/fmi/index.htm ) based on model 

input data from various sources. It is expected that data 

available from ICP-Forest type plots would enhance 

this database. A series of demonstration plots is being 

explored to provide data for critical loads mapping in 

other regions of the United States. If these protocols are 

established for N and S in North America, protocols for 

determining critical levels for ozone could be implemented in North America. Although it appears that the 

United States and Canada currently will not be adopting a 

European Level II approach for determining ozone critical levels, the establishment of the ICP Forest monitoring 

plots would provide a valuable database to enable this 

possibility in the future.

Initial European Level I assessment of ozone-induced 

specific visible injury symptoms can be evaluated in or 

near forest health monitoring (FHM) plots if these plots 

provide open exposure to ambient ozone and if ozone 

sensitive plant species are present. Efforts have been 

made in the United States to establish specific plots near 

FHM plots that are more suitable for ozone biomonitoring, where visible oxidant stipple symptoms are recorded 

on up to three open grown ozone sensitive plant species. 

Data available from the nearby FHM plots, including 

biological and physiological information for individual 

sensitive species, and information on ecosystem structure and function, with accompanying ancillary ambient 

hourly ozone or extrapolated ozone data, will allow critical levels assessment of ozone effects on forest health 

in North America.

Air quality standards in the United States and Canada 

are based on concentration, and those in Europe are based 

on exposure with some new effort to base European 

standards on stomatal flux. Any effort in the United 

States and Canada to move beyond a concentration-based 

standard and beyond the European exposure and dosebased standard toward an effective dose-based standard 

will allow a more meaningful air quality standard for 

vegetation. Information provided from ICP plots and 

forest health monitoring plots, along with controlled 

fumigation experimental data, will facilitate this transition to an effective dose based standard.

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recordisplay.cfm?deid=22411
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 33

Introduction

In Europe and increasingly in other parts of the world, 

the concept of critical loads has been applied to estimate 

acceptable levels of acid deposition (Posch and others 

2001). A critical load is defined as “a quantitative estimate of an exposure to one or more pollutants below 

which significant harmful effects on specified sensitive 

elements of the environment do not occur according 

to present knowledge” (Nilsson and Grennfelt 1988). 

Critical loads have been most commonly applied to 

sulphur and nitrogen deposition, although critical loads 

for trace metals, ozone and organic chemicals are also 

being developed (Posch and others 2001). Critical load 

models have been an important and successful tool for 

the development of control strategies for transboundary 

air pollution in Europe (Gregor and others 2001), and 

critical loads for acid deposition (sulphur (S) and nitrogen 

(N)) have recently been calculated for regions in eastern 

North America (Arp and others 1996, Ouimet and others 

2001, Watmough and Dillon 2003a). The most common 

method for calculating steady state critical loads of acidity for forest soils is the Simple Mass Balance (SMB) 

model (Posch and others 2001).

Upland forests in the Northeastern United States and 

Eastern Canada are particularly sensitive to acidic deposition because of high local S and N deposition rates, 

and because shallow and poorly-buffered upland soils 

are common throughout the region. Critical loads for 

upland forests in eastern Canada were estimated under the 

Canadian Experiences in Development of Critical Loads 

for Sulphur and Nitrogen

Shaun Watmough, biogeochemist, Department of Environmental and Resource Studies, 

Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario K9J 7B8, Canada

Julian Aherne, biogeochemist, Department of Environmental and Resource Studies, 

Trent University, Peterborough, Ontario, Canada

Paul Arp, Professor, Faculty of Forestry and Environment Management, University of 

New Brunswick Fredericton, NB, Canada

Ian DeMerchant, GIS specialist, Canadian Forest Service, Atlantic Forestry Centre, 

Fredericton, NB, Canada

Rock Ouimet, forest soil science scientist, Direction de la recherche forestière, 

Forêt Québec, Ministere des Ressources Naturelles du Québec, Sainte-Foy, QC, Canada

Abstract—Critical loads are a broad-scale modelling approach designed to assess the 

potential risk of pollutants to ecosystems. A description of the methodology for estimating critical loads (sulphur and nitrogen) for acid deposition (CL(A)) for upland forests in 

eastern Canada is presented, using a case study in central Ontario. In eastern Canada, 

CL(A) have been calculated for upland forests, with the objective of maintaining the molar ratio of base cations to aluminium in soil solution above 10. In the current approach, 

nitrogen (N) dynamics including N fixation, N immobilisation and denitrification have 

been set to zero. Further, critical load estimates presented in this study do not include 

nutrient removals through harvesting, and dry deposition input is estimated to be 20 

percent of wet (1994 to 1998) deposition. Critical loads were calculated separately 

for Ontario, Québec and the Maritime Provinces (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and 

Newfoundland) using the same methods, but using different soil and forest databases. 

Mean area-weighted critical loads among provinces are similar, ranging between 273 eq 

ha–1 yr–1 (Newfoundland) and 512 eq ha–1 yr–1 (Ontario). Preliminary estimates indicate 

that more than 50 percent of the upland forest area in Ontario and Québec and between 

10 (Newfoundland) and 33 percent (Nova Scotia) of upland forest in the Maritimes 

receive acid deposition in excess of the critical load. Current efforts are being directed 

toward improving the accuracy of critical load estimates and current exceedances using 

better estimates of dry deposition and harvesting removals, and investigating the linkage 

between exceedance of the critical load and adverse biological effects.
34 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

NEG/ECP (New England Governors/Eastern Canadian 

Premiers) working group on critical loads (Québec and 

Maritime Provinces) or through a complimentary project funded by Environment Canada. In this paper we 

present a description of the methodology adopted for 

critical load calculations using a case study in Ontario. 

Preliminary critical load estimates for Eastern Canada 

are summarised also.

Methods

The Simple Mass Balance Model

The simple mass balance model assumes a simplified, steady state input-output description of the most 

important biogeochemical processes that affect soil 

acidification. Potential ecosystem inputs include: 1) atmospheric deposition of S, N, calcium (Ca), magnesium 

(Mg), and potassium (K); 2) soil base cation weathering 

rate; and 3) N fixation. Ecosystem outputs and consumption include: 1) net nutrient accumulation in the soil; 2) 

net nutrient storage in above-ground biomass by uptake; 

3) net removal of nutrients by forest harvesting or other 

disturbance; 4) nutrient loss through soil leaching; and 

5) denitrification or N immobilisation.

CL(S+N)=BCdep-Cldep+BCw+Ni

+Nu+Nde-ALKle(crit)(1)

Equation (1) describes the critical load calculation 

(units are in eq ha–1 yr–1), where BCdep = base cation (Ca 

+ Mg + K + sodium (Na)) deposition, Cldep = chloride 

deposition BCw = base cation weathering, BcU = net base 

cation (Ca + Mg + K) uptake by trees, Ni = net nitrogen 

immobilisation rate in soil, Nu = net nitrogen uptake by 

trees, Nde = net denitrification rate, and ALKle(crit) = critical 

alkalinity leaching rate. In the current assessment, harvesting removals were excluded, in other words, Bcu

 and 

Nu were set to zero. In addition, Ni and Nde were assumed 

to be negligible. Further details on the SMB model are 

given by (UBA 1996) and the NEG/ECP Forest Mapping 

Group (NEG/ECP Environment Task Group 2001).

A key component of the critical load calculation 

is the critical alkalinity leaching rate. This critical 

chemical criterion ultimately determines the acceptable 

level of base saturation in forest soils. Among the many 

chemical criteria proposed in the European modelling 

exercise, the UN-ECE developed a model to calculate the 

critical ALKle for forest soils based on two criteria: the 

molar Bc:aluminium (Al) ratio in soil leachate; and the 

gibbsite dissolution constant which controls Al solubility (UBA 1996). The following equation summarises the 

calculation:

where Bc = K + Ca + Mg (dep, w, and u represent deposition, weathering, and net uptake, respectively; eq 

ha–1 yr–1), Na is excluded since it provides no protection 

against Al toxicity for plants, (Bc/Al)crit = molar soil solution threshold criterion, Q = water flux from the bottom 

of the rooting zone (m3 ha–1 yr–1), and Kgibb = gibbsite 

dissolution constant criterion (m6 eq–2). A range of threshold values have been proposed for Bc/Al and Kgibb; the 

current assessment is based on Bc/Al = 10 and log10(Kgibb

in (L mol–1)2) = 9.0. These values were chosen with the 

overall objective of maintaining soil base saturation at an 

acceptable level for forest health and productivity.

Data Requirements

Critical loads for upland forests and related exceedances were compiled and mapped separately for 

Newfoundland, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick (Balland 

and others 2004), Québec (Ouimet 2004), and Ontario 

(Watmough and others 2004) following the same methodology, but using different data sources. Input data for 

critical load calculations (table 1) were collected from 

multiple sources although the majority of the data were 

obtained from the Canadian Soil Information System 

(CANSIS) and Environment Canada. More detailed land 

polygon (CANSIS) data were available for the Maritimes 

compared with Québec and Ontario. All atmospheric 

wet deposition data were provided by Environment 

Canada (Ro and Vet 2002), and represent the average 

wet deposition (1994 to 1998), multiplied by a constant 

weighting factor of 20 percent to account for dry deposition. Updated estimates of dry deposition are currently 

being included into revised critical load maps.

ALKle(crit) =1.5×

Bcdep + Bc w −Bcu

(Bc / Al)crit















+Q2/3 × 1.5×

Bcdep + Bcw − Bcu

(Bc / Al)crit × Kgibb

















1/3

(2)

Table 1. Input parameters for calculation of critical loads.

Theme Map attribute (units)

Climate Runoff or soil percolation (m)

Mean annual temperature (°C)

Atmospheric deposition Ca, Mg, K, Na, 

Cl, SO4

, NO3, NH4 (eq ha–1)

Land polygons Ecological region, CANSIS soil 

landscapes, etc.

Soil data Substrate acidity type: acid, intermediate 

or basic

Average soil depth (m)

Average clay content (percent)
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 35

Base Cation Weathering Rate

Base cation weathering rates for each soil polygon 

were estimated based on the weighted clay content of soil, 

parent substrate, soil depth and temperature (Sverdrup 

and others 1990):

Acid substrate: W=(56.7×%clay)-(0.32×%clay2) (3)

Intermediate substrate: W=500+(53.6×%clay)-

(0.18×%clay2

) (4)

Basic substrate: W=500+(59.2×%clay) (5)

where W = base cation weathering rate (eq ha–1 yr–1) for 

1 m soil depth. Weathering estimates were corrected for 

differences in mean annual temperature:

Wc=W×e((A/(2.6+273))-(A/(273+T)) (6)

where Wc is the temperature-corrected weathering rate 

(eq ha–1 yr–1) for 1 m soil depth; A is the Arrhenius constant (3600 °K) and T is the mean annual temperature 

(°C). The maximum soil depth used in the calculations 

was 0.75 m, base on the assumption that this represented 

the maximum rooting depth for upland forests.

The application of this steady state model within 

the geographic mapping context has been described 

in detail by the (NEG/ECP Environment Task Group 

2001) and (Arp and others 2001). The case study 

presented here, describes the calculation of critical 

load and current exceedance for 10 soil mapping units 

situated in the Manitoulin Island region, central Ontario 

(fig. 1). Preliminary critical load estimates for eastern 

Canada, that are included in the 2004 Canadian Acid 

Rain Assessment report to be released in early 2005 

(Environment Canada in prep), are summarised also.

Results

Case Study: Manitoulin Island

The weighted percent clay content of the 10 land polygons centered around Manitoulin Island was between 2.5 

and 33.4 percent; soil depth for all polygons was set to 

the maximum depth of 0.75 m (table 2). By incorporating substrate type and average annual temperature for 

each land polygon, mean annual base cation weathering 

rates were estimated to be between 113.9 and 2303.7 eq 

ha–1 yr–1 (table 2). Higher weathering rates are associated 

with higher clay content (table 2) and substrate acidity. 

Annual base cation deposition was generally higher 

in the southern part of the region, reflecting the closer 

proximity to industrial activities in southern Ontario and 

the greater dominance of calcareous soils. Base cation 

deposition ranged from a low of 145.9 eq ha–1 yr–1 at the 

north-west tip of Manitoulin Island, to a high of 214.5 

eq ha–1 yr–1 at the most southerly land polygon on the 

Bruce Peninsula (table 2; fig. 1). Base cation inputs from 

deposition represented between 8 (O-9) and 60 percent 

(O-7) of the total annual base cation weathering inputs 

for each land polygon.

Figure 1. (a) Case study location, centred around Manitoulin 

Island and the Bruce peninsula (b) critical loads for acid 

deposition (eq ha–1 yr–1) and (c) current exceedance (eq ha–1

yr–1) based on average 1994 to 1998 deposition.
36 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Land polygons with higher base cation inputs (and no 

harvesting) will have a greater ALKle(crit) (equation 2). In 

this example, annual ALKle(crit) was between –73.6 (O-7) 

and –574.7 eq ha–1 yr–1 (O-9). All N dynamic parameters 

(fixation, immobilisation and denitrification) were set to 

0 and we assumed that there was no forest harvesting. 

Critical loads for acid deposition for each land polygon 

are simply a function of the base cation weathering rate, 

base cation deposition, and the ALKle(crit) (equation 1). 

Critical loads for acid deposition are between 398.8 (O-7) 

and 3124.7 eq ha–1 yr–1 (O-9) (table 2; fig. 1).

Sulphate deposition is between 334.2 and 454.5 eq ha–1

yr–1 (table 2) and follows a similar pattern to base cation 

deposition with higher values occurring in the southern 

part (O-10) of the study region. Similarly, N (nitrate + 

ammonium) deposition follows the same spatial pattern 

as both sulphate and base cations and ranges from 495.9 

to 671.8 eq ha–1 yr–1 (typically ~60 percent of total acid 

deposition), with the highest values occurring in the 

southern region of the island. Acid deposition exceeds 

the critical load at 7 of the 10 land polygons, with exceedance values ranging between 87.5 (O-10) and 766.2 

eq ha–1 yr–1 (O-7), indicating that reductions in acid (S + 

N) deposition of up to 78 percent (O-7) are required to 

prevent the Bc:Al molar ratio in soil solution from falling 

below 10 (table 2).

Eastern Canada

Approximately half of the mapped area in Ontario 

and Québec currently receives acid deposition in excess 

of the critical load (table 3). Newfoundland has the 

lowest areal exceedance, with 10 percent of the mapped 

area exceeding the critical load. The percentage area of 

exceedance in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia is intermediate between Newfoundland and Québec/Ontario. 

Comparison between the provinces, however, should be 

made with caution, since the mapping units (polygon 

area) in Ontario and Québec are much larger (≥ 300 km2

on average) than in the Maritime provinces (1.5 km2 on 

average). On average, almost 48 percent of the mapped 

region of eastern Canada exceeds the critical load of acidity. The greatest exceedance occurs where atmospheric 

acid deposition rates are high and where the critical soil 

acidification loads are calculated to be low, and occur in 

central and eastern Ontario, southern Québec, especially 

in the Lower-Laurentide region north of the St. Lawrence 

River, and southeastern Nova Scotia.

Table 2. Selected land polygon characteristics (percent clay, weathering rate, base cation deposition, critical alkalinity leaching, 

and sulphur and nitrogen deposition) for critical load calculations and estimates of current exceedance (negative values indicate 

no exceedance).

 Clay ALKle(crit)

ID (percent) Wc 

1 BCdep (eq ha–1y–1) Sdep Ndep CL(A) Exceedance

O-1 15.6 528.8 145.9 –165.9 334.2 495.9 869.8 126.3

O-2 19.4 1045.2 163.2 –287.1 364.6 543.9 1528.2 –438.0

O-3 11.1 290.4 163.2 –113.0 364.6 543.9 599.3 490.9

O-4 10.8 783.6 178.1 –230.7 389.8 576.0 1228.0 –69.1

O-5 14.8 704.3 187.6 –207.5 416.8 613.0 1137.0 98.7

O-6 12.1 552.2 187.7 –172.7 417.1 613.3 950.1 286.4

O-7 2.5 113.9 176.2 –73.6 393.2 577.7 398.8 766.2

O-8 13.1 278.6 207.4 –118.6 443.9 656.8 646.1 674.7

O-9 33.4 2303.7 205.3 –574.7 439.5 648.7 3124.7 –1818.8

O-10 7.8 774.8 214.5 –231.8 454.5 671.8 1264.0 87.5

1

 Wc: temperate corrected weathering rates were normalized to a maximum depth of 75 cm.

Table 3. Summary statistics for critical load estimates and current exceedances in eastern Canada 

(2004 Canadian Acid Rain Assessment [Environment Canada, in press]).

Mean Terrestrial area

critical load1 Mean 95th percentile in exceedance

Province (eq ha–1y–1) exceedance1 exceedance1 (percent)

Newfoundland 273 153 292 9.9

Nova Scotia 429 192 296 33.1

New Brunswick 459 148 426 10.6

Ontario 512 202 602 50.6

Québec 416 353 736 51.5

Total 439 265 427 48.3

1

 Area-weighted.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 37

Discussion

Steady state critical loads for acid deposition calculated using the SMB model provide a method of 

estimating the potential risk from acid deposition over 

a large geographical area. They highlight areas that are 

potentially most at risk from acid deposition, but do not 

provide an indication of when adverse effects will occur. 

The current approach also assumes that N immobilisation 

is zero, which does not generally reflect the present situation (Watmough and Dillon 2003b), but assumes that “at 

steady state” there will be no net N immobilisation (or 

denitrification and fixation). Critical load estimates are 

also based upon the assumption that molar Bc:Al ratios 

in soil solution below 10 will result in adverse effects on 

forest health. In this study we have adopted a precautionary approach with respect to both the critical chemical 

limit and N dynamics. However, the critical chemical 

limit in soil, soil weathering rates, and particularly N 

dynamics in forest soils are areas of active research, so 

it is possible that critical load maps will be updated as 

new information becomes available.

In general, the greatest exceedance of the critical load 

occurs in regions that are estimated to have the lowest 

weathering rates and are therefore likely to have the 

lowest exchangeable base cation pools in soil. Recent 

studies in eastern Canada have provided evidence for a 

link between exceedance of the critical load and adverse 

biological effects (Ouimet and others 2001; Moayeri 

2001; Watmough and others 2004), although a causal 

relationship between poor forest health and exceedance 

of the critical load has yet to be established. Current 

research efforts are being directed toward improving the 

accuracy of critical load estimates and current exceedance calculations by using more accurate estimates of dry 

deposition and soil weathering rates, and by including 

land-use changes (for example, harvesting and fire).

Acknowledgments

The authors gratefully acknowledge the Canadian 

National Atmospheric Chemistry (NAtChem) 

Precipitation Database and its data contributing agencies/organisations for the provision of the wet deposition 

data for 1994 to 1998, used in this publication. The 

agencies/organisations responsible for data contributions in 1994 to 1998 to the NAtChem/Precipitation 

Database include Environment Canada, and the provinces of Ontario, Québec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia 

and Newfoundland, the United States Environmental 

Protection Agency, and the United States National 

Atmospheric Deposition Program/National Trends 

Network.

References

Arp, P.A.; Leger, W.; Moayeri, M.H.; Hurley, J.E.; 2001. 

Methods for mapping Forest Sensitivity to Acid Deposition 

for northeastern North America. Ecosystem Health. 7: 

35–47.

Arp, P.A.; Oja, T.; Marsh, M. 1996. Calculating critical S 

and N loads and current exceedances for upland forests 

in southern Ontario, Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest 

Research. 26: 696–709.

Balland, V.; Arp, P.A.; Hurley, J.E.; DeMerchant, I.; Bourassa, 

Y. 2004. Estimating potential acid-rain induced base-cation 

depletion economics for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. 

in Pollutants Across Boundaries, Third Canadian Workshop 

on Air Quality, Québec, QC, Canada.

Environment Canada. 2004 Canadian acid rain assessment. 

Environment Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada. (in prep).

Gregor, H.-D.; Nagel, H.-D.; Posch, M. 2001. The UN ECE 

international programme on mapping critical loads and 

levels. Water, Air and Soil Pollution: Focus. 1: 5–19.

Moayeri, M.H. 2001. Mass balance related to sustainability 

of forest biomass production: concepts and applications. 

Ph.D. Thesis, University of New Brunswick, Fredericton, 

N.B., Canada.

NEG/ECP Environment Task Group. 2001. Critical load of 

sulphur and nitrogen assessment and mapping protocol 

for upland forests. NewEngland Governors and eastern 

canadian Premiers, Acid Rain Action Plan, Halifax, Canada. 

21 p.

Nilsson, J.; Grennfelt, P. 1988. Critical loads for sulphur and 

nitrogen. NORD 1988:97, Nordic Council of Ministers, 

Copenhagen, Denmark. 418 p.

Ouimet, R. 2004. Cartographie des secteurs forestiers du 

Québec vulnérables aux précipitations acides : première 

approximation. Rapport interne No. 482, Gouvernement du 

Québec, Ministère des Ressources naturelles, de la Faune 

et des Parcs, Québec.

Ouimet, R.; Duchesne, L.; Houle, D.; Arp, P.A. 2001. Critical 

loads of atmospheric S and N deposition and current exceedances for Northern temperate and boreal forests in Québec. 

Water Air and Soil Pollution: Focus. 1(1/2): 119–134.

Posch, M.; de Smet, P.A.M.; Hettelingh, J.-P.; Downing, R.J. 

2001. Modelling and mapping of critical thresholds in 

Europe. Status report 2001, Working Group on Effects of the 

Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, 

RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands. 165 p.

Ro, C. U.; Vet, R. J. 2002. Analyzed data fields from the 

National Atmospheric Chemistry Database (NAtChem) 

and Analysis Facility. Air Quality Research Branch, 

Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, 

4905 Dufferin St., Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

Sverdrup, H.; de Vries, W.; Henriksen, A. 1990. Mapping 

critical loads: a guidance to the criteria, calculations, data 

collection and mapping of critical loads. Miljorapport 

(Environmental Report) 1990:14., Copenhagen: Nordic 

Council of Ministers. NORD: 1990:98. 124 p.

UBA. 1996. Manual on methodologies and criteria for mapping critical levels/loads and geographical areas where 

they are exceeded. UN ECE Convention on Long-range 

Transboundary Air Pollution, Berlin, Germany. 144 p.

Watmough, S. A.; Dillon, P. J. 2003a. Do critical load models 

adequately protect forests? A case study in south-central 

Ontario. Canadian Journal of Forest Research. 33: 

1544–1556.
38 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Watmough, S. A.; Dillon, P. J. 2003b. Base cation and 

nitrogen budgets for seven forested catchments in central 

Ontario, 1983–1999. Forest Ecology and Management. 

117: 155–177.

Watmough, S. A.; Aherne, J.; Dillon, P. J. 2004. Critical loads 

Ontario: relating exceedance of the critical loads with biological effects at Ontario forests. Report 2. Environmental 

and Resource Studies, Trent University, Ontario, Canada. 

22 p.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 39

Biosphere Systems and 

Processes
40 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP or Plan) represents one of the preeminent ecoregional initiatives 

implemented in North America. Plan implementation 

utilizes an adaptive management strategy (Walters 1986) 

wherein monitoring is a key step in evaluating ecosystem 

and socioeconomic status and trends. Monitoring for 

the Plan has been reinforced by a Federal court decision 

mandating the implementation of a scientifically-valid 

monitoring program (Dwyer 1994). Monitoring has 

been actively discussed, debated, and supported by the 

Regional Interagency Executive Committee, the set 

of Federal executives in the Pacific Northwest whose 

agency missions involve various aspects of NWFP 

implementation.

While monitoring is central to adaptive ecosystem 

management, the monitoring process can itself be 

evaluated as it is implemented (Ringold and others 

1996). NWFP monitoring has been implemented using 

alternative approaches employing scientifically-derived 

experimental design. The NWFP monitoring program is 

also subject to decisions regarding continuation or change 

in the system by which status and trends are estimated. 

Thus, data about monitoring and possibilities for course 

correction in monitoring program implementation mean 

that opportunities for “adaptive monitoring” within the 

NWFP are possible (fig. 1).

After over a decade of design, planning, review, implementation, and reporting the results of NWFP monitoring, 

it is timely to assess the program put in place to evaluate 

the status and trend of Plan indicators. While resource 

Putting Adaptive Management into Monitoring: 

Retrospective and Prospective Views of Northwest Forest 

Plan Monitoring

David E. Busch, Senior Biologist, U.S. Geological Survey Western Region, Regional 

Ecosystem Office, Portland, OR

Jon R. Martin, Northwest Forest Plan, Interagency Monitoring Program Manager, 

U.S. Forest Service, Portland, OR

Abstract—Based on ten years of Northwest Forest Plan implementation, we focus on 

key scientifically-oriented questions relating to improving Plan monitoring. The questions, which fall into groups concerning issues of scale, integration, and efficiency, have 

applicability to monitoring programs being designed and implemented throughout the 

world. Progress toward answering such questions is evidence of a functioning adaptive 

management paradigm, specifically an important subcomponent of such an approach 

dealing with adaptive change within monitoring programs themselves.

Figure 1. A simple depiction of the adaptive management 

cycle (top), with superimposition of an internal “adaptive 

monitoring” loopv to facilitate continuous evaluation, 

planning, and action improvements in monitoring programs 

(bottom).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 41

managers’ reviews of monitoring tend to emphasize cost 

savings, increased efficiency, tighter focus on management issues, and the potential for enhanced information 

yield, the need for monitoring programs to be structured 

around fundamental ecological factors playing out across 

multiple spatial and temporal scales must also be considered. Additionally, the tendency to create “orphan” 

databases has been detrimental, not only to monitoring 

programs themselves, but also to the decision-making 

processes that they serve (Palmer 2003). Benefits and 

risks of continuation or change in the monitoring of populations and ecosystems are being used to help structure 

alternatives for NWFP monitoring.

Planning, design, and pilot testing resulted in an 

overall strategy for NWFP monitoring (Mulder and 

others 1999), as well as the implementation of monitoring plans covering resources of interest to decision 

makers (for example, Hemstrom and others 1998, Lint 

and others 1999, Madsen and others 1999, Reeves and 

others 2003). By 2004, the monitoring program was 

able to report on trends occurring in the NWFP region 

over a decade or more for forest vegetation (“late-successional old growth” or LSOG) and for the threatened 

northern spotted owl. In other cases, the time series for 

monitoring were much shorter or could more realistically be considered initial inventory or baseline data. All 

monitoring modules have produced results that permit 

at least preliminary examination of underlying assumptions, conceptual models, analytical tools, development 

of descriptive or predictive models, and efficiency of 

protocols used for NWFP monitoring. Monitoring results 

are being summarized in a series of reports authored 

by interagency monitoring program leads. Experience 

with NWFP reporting of status and trends has lead us 

to pose a range of questions, the answers to which are 

likely to prove productive for future monitoring program 

implementation both for the NWFP as well as for programs that are being planned or conducted elsewhere. 

We have grouped questions about monitoring program 

implementation into those related to scale, those related 

to integration, and those related to efficiency.

Scale

The NWFP embodies conservation goals and implementation standards for approximately 9.7 million ha 

of forest and associated aquatic systems under federal 

ownership in the Pacific Northwest (fig. 2). At the finest 

level of resolution, the NWFP is implemented via management decisions that can affect as little as a few ha or 

restricted (<1 km) stream segments. Between geographic 

extremes are multiple levels of ecological (for example, 

watersheds, river basins, biophysical provinces) and 

institutional (for example, land management units, designated reserves, stream buffers) hierarchy upon which 

both monitoring program design and natural resource 

management are focused. Given that the resources are 

never likely to be available to provide robust depictions 

of systems operating at all scales, there are persistent 

questions about how to allocate effort to most effectively meet information needs at multiple levels. Ideally, 

Figure 2. The Northwest Forest Plan region in the states 

of Washington, Oregon, and California. Federal lands 

managed by the U.S. Forest Service, the U.S. Bureau of 

Land Management, and the U.S. National Park Service are 

shown in gray.
42 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

aggregation of monitoring information from smaller 

scales should contribute to the ability to assess higher 

hierarchical levels, while monitoring at greater scales 

should, at a minimum, provide valuable context for 

more localized questions (Morrison and Marcot 1995, 

Trexler and Busch 2003). After 10 years of NWFP 

implementation, both monitoring data and implementation experience are available to help address some issues 

pertaining to scale. Principal questions include:

What are the primary scales of interest to decision 

makers and how firm must inferences be at these 

scales; what are the opportunities for aggregating data 

or increasing sampling frequency or density in areas 

of special interest?

Given that NWFP monitoring provides good examples 

of both statistically rigorous sample design as well as 

designs utilizing scientific consensus, are there needs 

to adjust monitoring program elements toward one 

approach or the other?

What do we need to know about the influence of 

non-federal lands on federal resources and what are 

the possibilities for developing contextual information using data derived across a spectrum of land 

ownerships?

Considering the temporal dimension anticipated for 

responses to NWFP management actions, is the intensity of data collection adequate to detect projected 

trends?

Has new information about dynamic environments 

been incorporated into monitoring design, and are 

information needs about disturbance at odds with 

monitoring of the NWFP reserve system or agency 

land allocations?

Integration

A dominant theme within the literature on monitoring 

and adaptive ecosystem management is one of integration (Walters 1986, Karr 1987, Davis 1993, Silsbee 

and Peterson 1993, Woodward and others 1999). This 

theme carries through to assumptions and design principles employed for NWFP monitoring (Mulder and 

others 1999, Noon 2003). One dimension of this theme 

can be seen in the presumption that systems will be 

managed adaptively based at least partly on information developed in monitoring programs. As with other 

major ecoregional monitoring programs, there is also 

a prevalent expectation that monitoring programs will 

be well-integrated internally. In the case of the NWFP 

monitoring program, this implies that Implementation 

Monitoring (evaluating status and trends of NWFP 

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•

Standards and Guides implementation), Effectiveness 

Monitoring (assessing status and trends associated 

with the effects of Plan implementation on systems of 

interest), and Validation Monitoring (evaluation of 

underlying assumptions and cause-effect relationships 

in the NWFP) will have well-developed interconnections within the general monitoring program. Another 

expectation is for monitoring modules evaluating Plan 

effects on the status of specific resources to be well-integrated. For example, utilizing vegetation data from the 

LSOG module in all of the other ecologically-oriented 

monitoring modules is a key provision of the general 

monitoring program design. Perhaps less explicit but 

important nonetheless, is the idea that NWFP monitoring 

and related research programs would be integrated and 

would further the ability to infer causative relationships 

in relation to system responses to management. Among 

questions pertaining to integration are the following:

Is monitoring program information proving effective 

in making necessary adaptations to the NWFP?

Are procedures in place to integrate information from 

NWFP Implementation Monitoring, Effectiveness 

Monitoring, Validation Monitoring, and related data 

sources so that thorough analyses of the Plan can be 

conducted?

How is the program developed to monitor status and 

trends of NWFP-affected resources contributing to 

the ability to evaluate cause and effect relationships 

relating to anthropogenic or natural factors?

Efficiency

In concept, one can think of the efficiency of a 

monitoring program as the information yield per unit of 

resource invested to produce that information. However, 

managers and scientists are rarely interested in the 

amount of raw data produced from monitoring, and 

instead are more focused on the trends that are pertinent 

to the policy questions facing them (Urquhart and others 

1998). Thus, the concept of monitoring efficiency also 

must incorporate a theme relating to how well-targeted 

monitoring information is in relation to the resource 

management decisions being made. Unfortunately, scientific and management questions themselves are not 

stable over time and space since they respond to societal 

factors as well as information produced external to that 

developed in monitoring programs. A number of mechanisms were incorporated in NWFP monitoring program 

design with the prospect of making the program operate 

efficiently and to become more efficient as implemented 

(Mulder and others 1999). An assessment of NWFP 

•

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•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 43

monitoring relative to program cost or to management 

questions is beyond the scope of this paper. However, 

a number of questions are important from the perspective of the NWFP monitoring program’s performance 

relative to several scientific themes:

Does new information accumulated since NWFP 

inception provide a basis for making adjustments to 

the assumptions or conceptual models underlying the 

NWFP monitoring program?

Does information developed on wildlife populations, 

or preliminary models developed to project population 

trends based on habitat, validate a habitat modeling 

approach for NWFP monitoring?

Given that system baseline condition and targets for 

ecosystem restoration were not fully-articulated initially, does monitoring program information provide 

the means to further define baselines or targets?

Do power analyses based on time series of NWFP 

monitoring data indicate a need to refine efforts to 

determine population trends?

Have scientific information and scientists continued 

to be effectively utilized with NWFP monitoring 

implementation?

Conclusion

Although making progress toward answers for the 

questions posed about NWFP monitoring will benefit 

immensely from information available from the monitoring program itself, collectively the questions pose 

a daunting challenge. Solutions will be aided by those 

conducting scientific monitoring and research, but policy 

and cost information will also be of critical importance. 

Most of the questions we articulate have been posed in 

an isolated or adhoc manner over the course of NWFP 

implementation. It is anticipated that this synthesis of 

higher level questions will catalyze productive dialogue 

about potential adaptive adjustments to the NWFP monitoring program.

Acknowledgments

This contribution benefited immensely from discussions with those leading the implementation of NWFP 

monitoring, federal scientists who helped design monitoring approaches and analyze monitoring data, and federal 

executives and managers who provided guidance as to 

information needs and program constraints.

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References

Davis, G. E. 1993. Design elements of monitoring programs: 

the necessary ingredients for success. Environmental 

Monitoring and Assessment 26:99-105.

Dwyer, W. L. 1994. Seattle Audubon Society, et al. v. James 

Lyons, Assistant Secretary of Agriculture, et al. Order on 

motions for Summary Judgment RE 1994 Forest Plan. 

Seattle, WA: U.S. District Court, Western District of 

Washington.

Hemstrom M., T. Spies, C. Palmer, R. Kiester, J. Teply, P. 

McDonald, and R. Warbington 1998. Late-successional 

and old-growth forest effectiveness monitoring plan for the 

Northwest Forest Plan. General Tech. Report PNW-GTR438, USDA-Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station. Portland, OR. 37 pp.

Karr, J. R. 1987. Biological monitoring and environmental 

assessment: a conceptual framework. Environmental 

Management 11:249-256.

Lint J., B. Noon, R. Anthony, E. Forsman, M. Raphael, 

M. Collopy, and E. Starkey.1999. Northern spotted owl 

effectiveness monitoring for the Northwest Forest Plan. 

General Tech. Report PNW-GTR-440, USDA-Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Portland, OR. 

43 pp.

Madsen S., D. Evans, T. Hamer, P. Henson, S. Miller, S.K. 

Nelson, D. Roby, and M. Stapanian. 1999. Marbled murrelet 

effectiveness monitoring plan for the Northwest Forest 

Plan. General Tech. Report PNW-GTR-439, USDA-Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. Portland, 

OR. 51 pp.

Morrison, M. L. and B. G. Marcot. 1995. An evaluation 

of resource inventory and monitoring program used in 

National Forest planning. Environmental Management 

19:147-156.

Mulder B.S., B.R. Noon, T.A. Spies, M.G. Raphael, C.J. 

Palmer, A.R. Olsen, G.H. Reeves, and H.H. Welsh, tech. 

coords. 1999. The strategy and design of the effectiveness 

monitoring program for the Northwest Forest Plan. General 

Tech. Report PNW-GTR-437, USDA-Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station. Portland, OR. 138 pp.

Noon, B. R. 2003. Conceptual issues in monitoring ecological 

resources. pp. 27-71 in Busch, D. E. and J. C. Trexler (eds.). 

Monitoring ecosystems: interdisciplinary approaches for 

evaluating ecoregional initiatives. Island Press. Washington, 

D.C. 447 pp.

Palmer, C. J. 2003. Approaches to quality assurance and 

information management for regional ecological monitoring 

programs. p. 211-225 in D. E. Busch and J. C. Trexler (eds.). 

Monitoring ecosystems: interdisciplinary approaches for 

evaluating ecoregional initiatives. Island Press. Washington, 

D.C. 447 pp.

Reeves, G.H., D.B. Hohler, D.P. Larsen, D.E. Busch, K. Kratz, 

K. Reynolds, K.F. Stein, T. Atzet, P. Hays, and M. Tehan. 

2004. Effectiveness monitoring for the aquatic and riparian 

component of the Northwest Forest Plan: conceptual framework and options. General Tech. Report PNW-GTR-577, 

USDA-Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 

Portland, OR. 71 pp.
44 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Ringold, P. L., J. Alegria, R. L. Czaplewski, B. S. Mulder, T. 

Tolle, and K. Burnett. 1996. Adaptive monitoring design 

for ecosystem management. Ecological Applications 6: 

745-747.

Silsbee, D. G. and D. L. Peterson. 1993. Planning for implementation of long-term resource monitoring programs. 

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 26:177-185.

Trexler, J. C. and D. E. Busch. 2003. Monitoring, assessment, and ecoregional initiatives: a synthesis. pp. 405-424 

in Busch, D. E. and J. C. Trexler (eds.). Monitoring 

ecosystems: interdisciplinary approaches for evaluating 

ecoregional initiatives. Island Press. Washington, D.C. 

447 pp.

Urqhart, N. S., S. G. Paulsen, and D. P. Larsen. 1998. 

Monitoring for policy-relevant regional trends over time. 

Ecological Applications 8:246-257.

Walters, C. 1986. Adaptive management of renewable resources. Macmillan, New York, NY.

Woodward, A., K. J. Jenkins, and E. G. Schreiner. 1999. 

The role of ecological theory in long-term ecological 

monitoring: report on a workshop. Natural Areas Journal 

19:223-233.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 45

Introduction

The Ecuadorian Ministry of the Environment and the 

US Agency for International Development are working 

toward the development of a system to support the conservation and beneficial uses of recreation, education, and 

ecological scientific understanding at Parque Nacional 

Cotopaxi (PNC) and other Andean protected areas. There 

also is interest in the development and establishment an 

ecological monitoring system for PNC.

Monitoring system development is crucial because:

PNC is a magnet for domestic and foreign visitors; 

plans for future ecotourism are likely to increase 

visitation pressure.

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No basic inventory of PNC’s resources has been 

conducted.

Changes to PNC have accelerated over the last 50 

years.

Reports on PNC resources are available, but also problematic because many of the reports are not readily 

accessible to managers in Ecuador; past investigations have also employed different methods making 

comparison and integration difficult.

There is a need to determine status and trends for PNC 

ecosystems, flora, and fauna.

Patterns of ecological succession have not been identified, nor have potential positive or negative deviations 

from “natural” successional trajectories.

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Conceptual Frameworks for Monitoring of High-altitude 

Andean Ecosystems

David E. Busch, Senior Biologist, U.S.Geological Survey Western Region, Regional 

Ecosystem Office, Portland, OR

Xavier Silva is Director, IDB-TNC Ecoregional Project for South America, Teacher & 

Lecturer, San Francisco de Quito University, Quito, Ecuador

Abstract—The Ecuadorian government and its partner organizations in the international conservation community share an interest in developing monitoring programs 

for Andean protected areas to help support management for recreation, education, 

and ecological sustainability. To accomplish this goal, the U.S. Agency for International 

Development and the Department of the Interior are providing assistance to establish a system of ecological monitoring. Assistance was focused on Parque Nacional 

Cotopaxi, a protected area centered on a 5911m active stratovolcano and an ecosystem dominated by the paramo vegetation association. A number of issues complicate 

the development of monitoring and management systems for such protected areas. 

Among these are uncertainty about the roles and interactions of ecosystem drivers, the 

relative importance of various anthropogenic factors, and a need for clarity about how 

individual protected areas function within larger ecological and socioeconomic contexts of Andean landscapes. Changes in factors of management interest can be viewed 

as progression along, or deviation from, pathways of ecological succession. A simple 

conceptual model integrating physical and anthropogenic factors has been developed 

to help describe a basic Andean successional template. Elevation gradients are wellestablished as fundamental ecosystem determinants in montane ecosystems throughout 

the world. Further articulation of this concept makes it clear that proximity to volcanic 

activity in space or time can be considered a primary driver. Similarly, spatiotemporal 

proximity to glaciation is another clear determinant of successional status. In addition 

to physical ecosystem factors, human perturbation is proposed as a cause for deviations (altered trajectories, novel stable states or cycles) from “normal” successional 

gradients. Monitoring of Andean ecosystem status and trend should be designed and 

implemented taking into account this physical system/perturbation template. In addition 

to stratification along lines of zonal and azonal ecological communities, sample design 

for monitoring ecosystems should first be stratified along lines of volcanic and glacial 

disturbance, as well as human perturbation.
46 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Stream and lake systems in PNC are not well-understood with respect to their value as habitat for wildlife 

and aquatic biota, water quality, or water supply

Interactions of ecological and anthropogenic factors 

through time have not been described.

Ecological conditions within PNC need to be better 

integrated with past and future volcanism affecting 

the Cotopaxi region.

PNC administrators do not have information needed 

to deal with Park visitation, use of Park resources, and 

adjacent land uses.

It is unclear how PNC fits within the larger context of 

Andean ecosystems, as well as surrounding land uses, 

cultures, and economies.

In the face of such extensive needs, funding to implement a system of PNC monitoring is in short supply and 

the Park staff is burdened with ongoing commitments that 

preclude implementation of a viable monitoring program. 

Given similar situations in many of the protected areas 

of the Andes, it is important that monitoring program 

development and implementation be initiated using 

technologies that are inexpensive, simple, and robust 

with respect to the information yield for a given level of 

effort. However, this does not imply that the easiest or 

most obvious monitoring protocols should have the greatest priority for implementation. A step-wise process for 

monitoring program development (Noon 2003) becomes 

critical when implementation efficiency is so important. 

A key initial step in monitoring protocol development is 

agreement about system processes and resource states. 

Such agreement is best reached through the development 

of system conceptual models.

Monitoring Design Process

Monitoring at Andean protected areas should not 

planned or conducted independently at individual sites. 

A number of resources are available for the development 

of a coordinated ecological monitoring system for such 

areas (Busch and Trexler 2003, Elzinga and others 2001, 

Feinsinger 2001).

A useful way to view monitoring is in the context of 

an adaptive assessment, or adaptive ecosystem management, framework (Holling 1978). This type of framework 

is helpful in showing how monitoring can influence 

management actions, but it is also essential to understand 

that monitoring data alone are not sufficient to complete 

the adaptive management cycle supporting productive 

natural resource decision making. Proper analysis and 

evaluation of data from a variety of sources is critical, as 

are formats for communicating and developing planning 

options to put well-founded alternatives in front of natural 

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resource managers (Palmer 2003). Data management 

and the conversion of data into useful information and 

knowledge are important steps in a properly functioning 

adaptive management process. For monitoring of the 

system of Andean protected areas, including PNC, it 

is important that the responsible organizations develop 

sustainable networks capable of aggregating, storing, and 

distributing data for analysis and report writing.

Various versions of a stepwise process to develop 

monitoring plans have been presented. In general, approaches used in different monitoring programs are 

comparable with each other utilizing a step-wise process 

similar to that recommended by Noon (2003):

Specify goals and objectives

Characterize system stressors

Develop conceptual models of the system

Select monitoring indicators

Establish sampling design

Define response criteria

Link monitoring results to decision making

For PNC and related Andean protected areas, steps 

1 and 2 were at least partially articulated in advance 

by policy makers. In spite of this, the development of 

scientifically-valid monitoring plans often requires a rearticulation of goals and objectives using the principles 

of the technical disciplines involved (Reeves and others 

2004). Meetings with Ecuadorian scientists and PNC 

management staff helped to reaffirm goals and objectives and characterize system stressors in an ecological 

context. Using information from the literature, from field 

visits to Andean protected areas, and from the aforementioned meetings, a first-generation conceptual framework 

for monitoring is proposed here. Agreement about basic 

ecosystem stressors and drivers permitted the derivation 

of a preliminary set of indicators and sampling design 

(Busch and Jorgenson 2004). Although much has been 

accomplished, all of these steps, particularly those toward 

the end of the sequence, should be revisited to evaluate 

what additional measures will be necessary to assure the 

success and sustainability of a monitoring program for 

PNC and related Andean protected areas.

Conceptual Framework

Monitoring in the Cotopaxi area must be integrated 

within the context of neighboring land uses as well as 

monitoring at greater spatial scales. Although monitoring 

in North American systems has not enjoyed total success in integrating information between fine and coarse 

scales, paradigms for making such connections have 

been derived (Trexler and Busch 2003). Such models 

can be helpful in thinking about how monitoring at a 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 47

single unit such as PNC, may contribute to monitoring in 

ecologically-related parts of a region (for example, The 

Nature Conservancy multi-national Condor Bioreserve), 

or throughout Ecuador’s system of protected areas.

The missions of individual Park units and systems 

of protected areas are diverse. Consistent with this, the 

needs for monitoring are similarly diverse (fig. 1). There 

may be a species or community of interest (for example, 

a keystone, umbrella, or emblematic species) that is 

considered to be the monitoring focus. Alternatively, 

aggregations of species, as indicated by various measures or estimates of biodiversity, may be the primary 

interest. Given adequate understanding or assumptions 

about environmental parameters that support species 

requirements, there may be a focus on habitat, or there 

may be understanding and interest in various physical 

dimensions adequate to catalyze an ecosystem-based approach. Brainstorming (“Lluvia de Ideas”) meetings with 

Ecuadorian specialists about potential needs for PNC 

and related areas produced a list of potential categories 

incorporating important processes, drivers, stressors, 

and resources:

Vegetation and plant succession

Climate change, C & N cycles, photosynthesis, ET

Invasive and exotic species

Rare or biotically rich environments (wetlands, etc.)

Hydrology and water quality

Visitor use and abuse

Threatened and endangered species (listed species)

Land use – fire, grazing, forest management

Social factors (park visitation and indigenous cultures)

Endemic, flagship, keystone species

Economic factors (ecotourism and extractive economies)

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As can be seen from lists such as this, monitoring 

interests in the Ecuadorian system of protected areas are 

many and varied. Caution must be exercised to temper 

the expectations about the level of monitoring that can 

actually be implemented. A concept for developing 

monitoring alternatives ranging from those that are low 

in complexity and cost to those of increasing sophistication is presented in figure 2. Obviously, the information 

yield is greater as more staff and financial resources are 

added to the monitoring program. However, another 

important implication is that there are a number of analytical mechanisms for making monitoring more efficient 

and effective, potentially at relatively little additional 

cost. Crucial to the development of such efficiencies is 

the growth of collaborative mechanisms between those 

with a stake in field-level sampling and those possessing the capability and interest in aggregating, archiving, 

analyzing, modeling, and communicating based on the 

information collected.

Changes in factors of management interest can be 

viewed as occurring upon a physical ecosystem template. 

For example, elevation gradients are well-established as 

fundamental ecosystem drivers in montane ecosystems 

throughout the Andes (Humboldt and Bonpland 1807). 

Further articulation of ecosystem drivers in ecosystems 

of the Ecuadorian Andes is clearly possible. From our 

observations at PNC and neighboring Andean systems, 

it is proposed that the proximity to volcanic activity in 

space or time is one primary driver (fig. 3, top). Relatively 

recent volcanic activity at Volcan Cotopaxi has affected 

PNC ecosystems more profoundly than those at nearby 

montane systems where volcanic activity is spatially or 

temporally more distant. Proximity to features of intense 

volcanic activity (e.g. lahars) also has clear effects on 

successional status of sites within PNC. Glaciation is 

Figure 1. Potential dimensions of interest for monitoring 

ecosystems; tools for making monitoring efficient and 

integrating across dimensions.

Figure 2. Concept for outlining monitoring alternatives at 

varying levels of complexity and cost.
48 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

proposed as another important dynamic in such systems. 

Similar to volcanic activity, the proximity to active glaciers, morainal deposits, etc. in space or time also appears 

to be a clear determinant of successional status.

In addition to physical ecosystem factors, human 

disturbance is proposed as a determinant of ecosystem 

successional status (fig. 3, bottom). However, whereas 

volcanism and glaciation can generally be viewed as 

primary drivers of other ecosystem processes in more 

or less “natural” patterns, perturbation of ecosystem 

processes by humans is likely to be a cause for deviations (altered trajectories, novel stable states or cycles, 

etc.) from normal successional gradients. While the 

focus of this model is ecological, fuller incorporation of 

a perturbation axis into the conceptual framework for 

PNC and related Andean protected areas will require 

the development of parallel socio-economic systems of 

factors and drivers.

Conclusion

Monitoring of Andean ecosystem status and trend 

should be designed and implemented taking into account 

a physical system/disturbance template. In addition to 

stratification along lines of Andean zonal and azonal 

ecological communities (for example, puna, paramo, pajonal, mattoral, quebradas humedales, lagos, etc.), sample 

design for monitoring ecosystem subsystems should first 

be stratified along lines of volcanic disturbance, glaciation, as well as human perturbation. Once a basic level 

of understanding has been developed about cause and 

effect relationships between the most important Andean 

ecosystem stressors and their ecological consequences, 

selection of the most effective and efficient monitoring 

indicators will be possible.

Acknowledgments

Fruitful discussions with a number of specialists 

who have studied Andean ecosystems and society were 

essential to our work. We especially wish to thank 

Janet Jorgenson and Marc Weitzel (U.S. Department 

of the Interior, Fish and Wildlife Service); Darwin 

Hernandez, Marco Encalada, and Rocio Bastadas 

(Corporacion OIKOS); Rocio Cedeno (U.S. Agency 

for International Development), and the staff of Parc 

Nacional Cotopaxi.

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Interdisciplinary approaches for evaluating ecoregional 

initiatives. Island Press. Washington, D.C., USA. 447 pp.

Busch, D. E. and J.C. Jorgenson. 2004. Plan for the establishment of a system of ecological monitoring in Parque 

Nacional Cotopaxi, Ecuador. Unpublished report to the 

U.S. Agency for International Development and Ecuadorian 

Ministry of the Environment. Quito, Ecuador.

Elzinga, C. L., D. W. Salzer, J. W. Willoughby, and J. P. Gibbs. 

2001. Monitoring plant and animal populations. Blackwell 

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Feinsinger, P. 2001. Designing field studies for biodiversity 

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Holling, C. S. 1978. Adaptive environmental assessment and 

management. Wiley. Chichester, UK. 377 pp.

Humboldt, A. von and A. Bonpland. 1807. Essai sur la geographie des plantes. Paris.

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resources. pp 27-71 in Busch, D. E. and J. C. Trexler (eds.). 

Monitoring ecosystems: Interdisciplinary approaches for 

evaluating ecoregional initiatives. Island Press. Washington, 

D.C., USA. 447 pp.

Figure 3. Monitoring of ecosystems in relation to successional 

gradients. Status and trend of ecosystem as successional 

trajectories with proposed “drivers” for Andean 

ecosystems
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 49

Palmer, C. J. 2003. Approaches to quality assurance and 

information management for regional ecological monitoring 

programs. pp. 211-225 in Busch, D. E. and J. C. Trexler 

(eds.). Monitoring ecosystems: Interdisciplinary approaches for evaluating ecoregional initiatives. Island Press. 

Washington, D.C., USA. 447 pp.

Reeves, G. H., D. B. Hohler, D. P. Larsen, D. E. Busch, K. 

Kratz, K. Reynolds, K. F. Stein, T. Atzet, P. Hays, and M. 

Tehan. 2004. Effectiveness monitoring for the aquatic 

and riparian component of the Northwest Forest Plan: 

Conceptual framework and options. General Technical 

Report PNW-GTR-577. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service. Portland, OR, USA. 71 pp.

Trexler J. C. and D. E. Busch. 2003. Monitoring, assessment, 

and ecoregional initiatives: A synthesis. pp 405-424 

in Busch, D. E. and J. C. Trexler (eds.). Monitoring 

ecosystems: Interdisciplinary approaches for evaluating 

ecoregional initiatives. Island Press. Washington, D.C., 

USA. 447 pp.
50 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) is an exotic weed that has 

invaded many riparian areas across western North 

America. In the absence of natural enemies and disease 

causing organisms, saltcedar grows very aggressively 

(DeLoach and others 2000) and is highly competitive 

with native vegetation (Smith and others 1998, Sala and 

others 1996, Shaforth and others 1995). Therefore, many 

of the nation’s most productive and diverse ecological 

regions are being negatively affected by the invasion 

of this exotic invasive plant (Lovich and DeGouvenain 

1998). Common methods used to control saltcedar 

include herbicide application, burning and bulldozing, 

all of which are expensive and highly detrimental to 

non-target flora and fauna. Although these approaches 

may be successful in the short run, they do not provide 

permanent control of the problem as the saltcedar often 

grows back or reinvades from surrounding areas.

Over the past decade, biological control of saltcedar has been a major research effort within the 

USDA-Agricultural Research Service. A consortium of 

scientists and land managers has recently field tested 

the use of this new technology in several western states 

including CA, CO, MT, NM, NV, OR, TX, UT, and WY 

(DeLoach and others, this proceedings). A leaf beetle 

from Eurasia, Diorhabda elongata, has now been tested 

at several locations, where it has established reproductive populations, increased dramatically in numbers and 

spread extensively across saltcedar infested areas where 

the beetles have caused extensive defoliation of saltcedar 

for multiple seasons (fig. 1). In these test locations, the 

leaf beetles are significantly impacting saltcedar growth 

and development, while no non-target plants have been 

negatively affected (DeLoach and others, this proceedings).

Ground sampling of beetle populations and their impact on target saltcedar and adjacent beneficial species 

was conducted at all of the release sites for several years; 

however the scale of impact quickly made ground-based 

field sampling both difficult and expensive. Previous 

studies (Everitt and DeLoach 1990) have documented 

Remote Sensing of Saltcedar Biological Control 

Effectiveness

Ray Carruthers, Ecologist and Research Leader, USDA-ARS, Exotic and Invasive Weed 

Research Unit, Albany, CA

Gerald Anderson, Ecologist and Remote Sensing Specialist, USDA-ARS Northern Plains 

Agricultural Research Lab in Sidney, MT

Jack DeLoach, Research Entomologist and Lead Scientist, Saltcedar Biological Control 

Project at the USDA-ARS, Grasslands Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Temple, TX

Jeff Knight, State Entomologist, Nevada Department of Agriculture, Reno, NV

Shaokui Ge, Research Affiliate, University of California Berkeley, CA

Peng Gong, Professor and Co-Director, Remote Sensing Lab, University of California, 

Berkeley, CA

Abstract—Saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) is a major invasive weed found throughout the 

Western United States and Mexico. Introduced into North America in the 1800s, this 

shrub to small tree, now infests many riparian areas where it displaces native vegetation, 

increases fire hazards, uses extensive amounts of water, increases flooding during high 

water events and thus has caused extensive damage to urban, agricultural and natural 

areas. In 2001, scientists from the United States Department of Agriculture released 

a Chinese leaf beetle (Diorhabda elongata) into test areas in six states to initiate and 

evaluate a new biological control program for saltcedar. A combination of ground-based 

sampling and remote sensing has been used to monitor impacts caused by this biological 

control program. Both color aerial photography and hyperspectral remote sensing were 

used to successfully classify and quantify saltcedar populations and the effectiveness of 

the biological control program, including beetle spread and defoliation within monotypic 

stands of saltcedar and in areas where saltcedar is mixed with native vegetation.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 51

the effective use of remote sensing for the assessment 

of saltcedar infestations. In support of the overall project 

monitoring and assessment efforts (DeLoach and others, 

this proceedings), further remote sensing was conducted 

to characterize saltcedar infestations, to follow beetle 

establishment, impact and spread, and eventually to 

document the return of beneficial vegetation into areas 

where saltcedar has been controlled.

Methods and Materials

The Study Areas

Saltcedar biological control release sites were located 

in nine different western states including California, 

Colorado, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, 

Texas, Utah, and Wyoming (DeLoach and others 2004). 

Some states such as California, Nevada, and Texas 

included three or more different release sites while the 

other states only had a single test site. In this paper, we 

will present results from two of over a dozen specific 

research sites examined. We will discuss detailed assessments of aerial photography from Cache Creek, CA 

and hyperspectral imagery form Lovelock, NV. However 

these two types of remote sensing technology, along with 

videography and satellite imagery are being used to assess saltcedar infestations and biological control impacts 

at most of our research locations in all of the states where 

Diorhabda elongata has been released.

Cache Creek is a small river that is located north and 

west of Woodland, CA (38° 40’ 02’’N latitude and 128° 

45’ 30”W longitude). The stream course is highly infested with Tamarix parviflora intermixed with a diverse 

combination of native flora including many 

species of willows, cottonwood, and other 

common riparian plant species. This area is 

also infested with other exotic plant species of 

interest to our research team, including Arundo 

donax, Lepidium latifolium and Centaurea 

solstitialis that are also being assessed using 

remote sensing. Cache Creek is of primary 

interest to us as T. parviflora blooms in distinctive purplish-red blossoms (fig. 2) early in the 

spring prior to leaf-out of saltcedar and most 

other riparian vegetation. Thus, the saltcedar is 

easily identified visually on the ground and in 

the air, making it possible for us to separate it 

from other vegetation at this time of the year. 

During mid-season, however it is difficult to 

separate T. parviflora from other green vegetation as the 

plants are then without flowers and are often intermixed 

and hard to see due to visual barriers caused by adjacent 

plant canopies. This area was chosen as one of our primary study sites because an extensive historical record 

of aerial photography exists for this location.

The saltcedar infestation on Cache Creek runs along 

approximately 50 miles of river channel, much of which 

is hard to access and thus is very difficult to map and 

manage. The use of remote sensing to assess and develop 

comprehensive distributional maps would better allow 

local land managers to implement saltcedar removal, 

Figure 1. Saltcedar defoliation caused by Diorhabda elongate

in Lovelock, Nevada (September 2003).

Figure 2. An orthorectified color aerial photograph of a 

saltcedar infested portion of Cache Creek, CA. Inset shows 

blowup with individual purple colored saltcedar (Tamarix 

parviflora) in bloom.
52 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

allow our team to better assess biological control impacts, 

and would additionally provide a saltcedar base-map for 

future midsummer saltcedar assessments using hyperspectral imagery. Hyperspectral image collection has 

already been conducted in this area but has not yet been 

analyzed. We are conducting this additional research in 

Cache Creek (where we now have accurate saltcedar base 

maps) as new methods of aerial identification of saltcedar 

using midsummer foliage would be very helpful in the 

development of identification and separation techniques 

for other species of saltcedar. This is important as most 

Tamarix spp. (other than T. parviflora) do not have such 

a temporally concentrated bloom period and thus, need 

to be recognized with or without flowers.

Assessment of the use of remote sensing to characterize beetle defoliation has concentrated on the use 

of hyperspectral imagery that was collected at insect 

releases sites near Lovelock, Nevada (40° 1’ 20’’N latitude and 118° 31’ 24”W longitude). The Lovelock site 

is near the Lovelock and Oreana Valleys and adjacent to 

the Humboldt River, just upstream from the Humboldt 

Sink. The Lovelock Valley is one of Nevada’s primary 

agricultural areas where alfalfa is grown primarily for 

seed production. Saltcedar heavily infests the Humboldt 

River and side irrigation channels in this area, where it 

extend up-stream for approximately 100 miles. Saltcedar 

is especially damaging in this drainage, as it both reduces 

available water for agriculture and blocks channel flow 

during times of heavy runoff. Local agricultural producers have been fighting saltcedar all along the Humboldt 

River channel for the past two decades and are losing 

the battle. Saltcedar leafbeetle releases in this area have 

been extremely successful. The beetles have highly defoliated the saltcedar, and have now spread many miles 

from the release site over the past four years. Beetle 

impact now can be easily evaluated only by using aerial 

reconnaissance.

Remote Sensing Data Acquisition

Aerial Photography—A total of 42 natural color aerial 

photographs were taken at a scale of 1:12,000, along 

Cache Creek in April of 2001 and 2002. At the time of 

photography, the saltcedar was in full bloom and was 

purplish-red in color, making it distinctive from other 

associated riparian vegetation and the physical background in the study area (fig. 2). However, because the 

photographs were taken in response to flowering, it is 

possible to confuse saltcedar with some blooming fruit 

trees in adjacent agricultural orchards and thus careful 

analysis between riparian zones and agricultural fields 

was conducted. For analysis, the photos were scanned at 

a 1-foot resolution (1000 dpi) using full color with three 

(blue, green, and red) digital channels. These digital 

images were then resampled at 1-meter resolution using a nearest neighbor algorithm. Once processed for 

analysis, images were orthorectified and georeferenced 

to 1-meter resolution DOQs from USGS using a second 

order polynomial function. Each individual digital image 

was then evaluated for saltcedar (see subsequent section 

on image analysis), classified then mosaiced to provide 

an area-wide map of the saltcedar infestation.

Hyperspectral Imaging—Hyperspectal aerial imagery 

was acquired over study areas using a CASI II hyperspectral imaging system on 2 July 2002, 29 August 2002, 18 

July 2003, and 10 September 2003 (2004 images have 

also been acquired but not yet analyzed). The CASI II is 

a line scanner covering 545 nm, between 400 to 1000 nm. 

The system can be modified to acquire different spatial 

and spectral resolutions. CASI records calibrated radiance values, which were used in this study. Conversion 

to reflectance using ground targets is possible; however, 

the objectives of the project could easily be achieved 

using radiance alone.

Spectral and spatial coverage were changed over the 

course of the study to best accommodate biological control damage assessment. On 2 July 2003, imagery was 

acquired at an altitude of 1,500 m above ground level 

(AGL) obtaining a 2 m pixel resolution and 48 bands, 

with band centers ranging from 426.7 nm to 965.1 nm 

with a 5.9 nm bandwidth. The area covered was approximately 1,697 ha along the Humboldt River release site. 

Imagery collected on 29 August 2002 was acquired at 

an altitude of 750 m AGL, producing a 1 m resolution. 

Spectral resolution was dropped from 48 to 36 bands 

with a 7.9 nm band-width to accommodate the additional 

data (band centers ranged from 4.286 to 963.2 nm) and 

the area covered was 1,212 ha. On 18 July 2003 the area 

flown was reduced to focus in on the damage detected 

in August of 2002. Approximately 610 ha were imaged 

near the release site using the same band configurations 

and imaging altitude as the August 2002 flight. Spectral 

bands for the September 2003 flight were again reduced 

(to 32 bands) to accommodate the need to image a much 

larger area. Band centers ranged from 422 nm to 954 nm 

with an 8.8 nm band-width. Images were again taken at 

750 m AGL, which produced a 1 m pixel resolution over 

approximately 3,170 ha.

Geographic coordinates for each line of the CASI 

images were recorded in real time using a differential 

global positioning system (GIS) coupled with the systems 

inertial momentum unit (IMU).

Image Analysis

Aerial Photography—Based on the color similarity 

and relationships among various types of native vegetation and the invasive species, vegetation was initially 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 53

divided into eight types: T. parviflora, evergreen trees, 

non-evergreen trees, shrubs, crops, bare fields (including agriculture and rangeland), water bodies (including 

wetlands), rocks and roads. Initially, color patterns alone 

were used to separate and classify the saltcedar from 

the other categories of habitat. This provided inaccurate 

identification of saltcedar along the stream channel and 

thus more complex methods of analysis were required. 

Thus, the image processing to distinguish saltcedar from 

associated vegetation and background required four distinct steps beyond just the use of color differentials. The 

following analysis used: (1) Texture extraction using six 

texture measures; (2) Texture subset selection based on 

separability measured by Bhattacharya distances (BD); 

(3) Best texture determination based on classification 

accuracy; and (4) Post-classification processing based 

on invasive habitats. After these classification procedures were applied, the original eight categories were 

reduced to six categories by merging rocks and roads 

with bare fields and bare hills. Finally, ground-truthing 

was conducted from the up-stream, middle reach, and 

down-stream segments along the creek, to assess classification accuracy. For more details on the analysis and 

classification procedure, see Ge and others (2004).

Hyperspectral imagery—Image to image registration 

was performed to compensate for much of the spatial 

registration error that confounds temporal difference 

analysis. Images were then transformed to the normalized 

difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a change detection algorithm was used to determine differences between 

images collected over the period of study. Areas showing 

change were photo-interpreted and matched to ground 

observations on beetle occurrence to ensure the change 

was the result of Diorhabda elongata feeding damage to 

saltcedar. All areas of saltcedar that had been defoliated 

were subsequently masked as a region of interest (ROI) 

and the impacted area was quantified (ha).

Results and Discussion

Aerial Photography of Saltcedar 

Infestations

Based on the scanned images, all eight covers were 

compared based on their quantized numerical values 

of color (pixel by pixel), using analysis of variance. 

Although we found significant differences overall, tonal 

confusion existed among some covers, including saltcedar. For example, saltcedar sometimes was confused 

with water and other shrub-like plants because of their 

similar color and the variability caused by shading. 

Bhattacharya distance (BD) was applied to represent the 

separability between class pairs of samples. BD values 

range between 0 and 2.00. If it is less than 1.00, the two 

cover classes are very similar and thus hard to separate. 

A BD value between 1.00 and 1.9 means that the two 

classes might be classified as two different cover types. 

A BD value between 1.90 and 2.00 indicates very good 

separation between the two classes. The separability of 

saltcedar with other shrub covers using color alone was 

only 1.88. Tamarix separability with water was even less 

with a BD of only 1.03. Therefore, using color alone, it 

was not possible to accurately separate saltcedar from 

the surrounding habitats, even though it was easily recognizable using the human eye due to large-scale pattern 

recognition. Pattern recognition was then evaluated using four different window sizes (3x3, 5x5, 7x7, and 9x9 

pixel dimensions) focused around each one meter pixel. 

This was done to evaluate the effectiveness of patterning 

or texture as an added component in the analysis. After 

significant comparative analyses, a window size of 5x5 

pixels was found to provide the best overall accuracy in 

correctly classifying saltcedar. Using this window size, 

the overall average separability was improved from a BD 

of 1.87 to 1.99, and even more significantly, the separability of saltcedar from adjacent water was increased 

from a BD 1.03 to 1.96, which approaches the maximal 

BD value of 2.0. Based on this improved separability, 

habitat classification errors were minimized and covers 

compared to actual observed plant distributions (fig. 3). 

Comparisons made between this automated saltcedar recognition process and human interpretation of the photos 

Figure 3. Classified image showing saltcedar infested areas 

highlighted in red. A combination of color and texture 

analysis was necessary to identify the saltcedar.
54 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

resulted in an approximate 90 percent accuracy. Although 

full field validation is still underway, this classification 

also provided an approximate 90 percent accuracy in 

preliminary field assessments.

Finally, these classified images were mosaiced 

across the study area in order to provide comprehensive 

Figure 4. A mosaiced series of saltcedar classified images 

showing infestation areas along Cache Creek.

Figure 5. The entire area near Lovelock, Nevada that was 

imaged in July 2002 (1,697 ha). This monoculture of health 

saltcedar (depicted in red) showed no signs of beetle 

defoliation from the air.

infestation maps and to estimate the invasive saltcedar 

cover in a 40 km subset of the Cache Creek drainage. 

The total area of saltcedar infestation for this single 40 

km section of stream was estimated to be 398 ha. These 

maps (fig. 4) are now being used by local land managers in their saltcedar control programs and as a basis for 

comparison against more detailed hyperspectral analyses 

being conducted during the summer of 2004.

Hyperspectral Image Analysis

Analysis for the 2 July 2002 imagery indicated a total 

imaged area of approximately 1,697 ha (fig. 5). During 

this sample period there was no visible saltcedar damage. Significant defoliation of saltcedar was identified 

by ground crews prior to the August 2002 flight. The area 

was relatively small and localized, so adjustments were 

made to increase spatial resolution to 1 m by reducing 

the number of bands from 48 to 36 and decreasing the 

image area (1,697 ha to 1,212 ha) and the flight altitude. 

Change detection between the July 2002 and August 2002 

image pairs (figs. 5 and 6, respectively) indicated that the 

biological control agents had defoliated approximately 

0.35 ha over the two-month period (fig. 6). This measure 

represents only the actual area of canopy cover of the 

saltcedar trees, not the larger surface area (open ground) 

infested by saltcedar. In July of 2003 the total canopy area 

of saltcedar defoliated increased to 4.3 ha (fig. 7), and in 

the interval between the 18 July 2003 flight and the 10 

September 2003 flight (62 days) Diorhabda elongata had 

defoliated (or mostly defoliated) approximately 76.7 ha 

(fig. 8). Between the initial flight, 2 July 2002, and the 

last flight, 10 September 2003, the defoliation progressed 

approximately 2.8 km from the original release site and 

produced an impact span of approximately 5.2 km (southwest to northeast). The beetles themselves have actually 

spread much further along the Humboldt drainage. Results 

indicate an exponential rate of beetle population growth 

and saltcedar defoliation (fig. 1). A total of nine other 

sites are being monitored using the same technique (not 

reported here). These areas are more typical of riparian 

vegetation with a mixture of saltcedar and other plants. 

Defoliation rates in these areas indicate that impacts to 

saltcedar are somewhat slower across most of the plant’s 

range, but that insect establishment has occurred, that 

the beetle populations are building and saltcedar is being 

negatively impacted at almost all of the test locations 

(DeLoach and others, this proceedings).

Summary

A comprehensive assessment program has used a 

combination of color aerial photograph and hyperspectral 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 55

Figure 8. The yellow highlight indicates the area of saltcedar 

defoliation occurring between the first flight (2 July 2002) 

when no defoliation was detected and the 10 September 

2003 flight when approximately 76.6 ha of saltcedar had 

been defoliated

Figure 6. Beetle defoliation 

in August 2002 is shown 

in green in this false color 

simulated infrared image. 

The healthy saltcedar is 

shown in red. The enlarged 

section of the defoliation 

revealed an approximate 

0.3 ha impacted by 

the beetle when it was 

first noted using aerial 

reconnaissance.

Figure 7. Areas appearing bright yellow are the saltcedar 

plants defoliated by the biological control agents in July 

2003. The red areas are the healthy non-defoliated plants. 

The approximate area defoliated was 4.3 ha.

imagery to assess saltcedar populations prior to beetle 

release and to follow beetle defoliation patterns from 

the original release sites across wide areas of impact. A 

combination of color and texture analysis was used to 

identify, classify, and map invasive Tamarix parviflora

during spring bloom, along a 50 mile segment of Cache 

Creek in central California with an estimated 90 percent 

accuracy. An on-going effort is further evaluating the use 

of hyperspectral imagery during mid-summer to identify 

saltcedar interspersed with other background native 

vegetation in this and other infested areas. Additional 

use of hyperspectral image assessment and GIS mapping has allowed biological control specialists to track 

and evaluate beetle performance at many pilot release 

sites where the beetles have spread across thousands of 

acres. A combination of aerial and ground sampling has 

clearly documented the success and safety of this project 

in multiple study areas; however, due to the scope of the 

beetle defoliation, aerial reconnaissance seems to now be 

the only practical method of assessing the full magnitude 

of impact. Based on these trials and remote sensing assessments, several State and Federal agencies are highly 

enthusiastic about saltcedar biological control and have 

initiated efforts to use this technology over wide areas. 

Remote sensing is expected to play a major role in the 

continued assessment of this beneficial invasive species 

management project.

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Importance of Herpetofauna 

Within Ecosystems

Amphibians and reptiles, which we will refer to as herpetofauna, play important roles within ecosystems. Many 

consume insects, serve as food for birds, mammals, and 

other predators, and may be indicators of environmental 

health. Compared to birds and mammals, amphibians and 

reptiles are less mobile, have smaller home ranges, and 

thus may be affected to a greater degree by alterations to 

their habitat (Burton and Likens 1975). Yet, herpetofauna 

have long been overlooked by managers, biologists, and 

researchers.

Herpetofauna as Consumers, Predators, 

and Prey

Amphibians and reptiles eat a wide variety of foods, 

including plants, arthropods, birds, and small mammals. 

Many feed solely on arthropods. Whiptail lizards are 

active foragers and eat mostly moths and moth larva 

(Lepidoptera), beetles (Coleoptera), crickets and grasshoppers (Orthoptera), and termites (Isoptera, Medica 

1967, Degenhardt and others 1996). Amphibian species 

such as toads eat bees and ants (Hymenoptera), beetles, 

insect larvae (Hemiptera), and spiders (Arachnida, 

Degenhardt and others 1996).

Herpetological Communities of the Middle Rio Grande 

Bosque: What Do We Know, What Should We Know, and 

Why?

Alice L. Chung-MacCoubrey, Research Wildlife Biologist, USDA Forest Service, 

Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM

Heather L. Bateman, Graduate Student, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, 

Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—Amphibians and reptiles (herpetofauna) play important roles within ecosystems. Similar to many birds and mammals, they are major consumers of terrestrial 

arthropods. However, amphibians and reptiles are more efficient at converting food into 

biomass and are a higher quality food source for predators. Recent declines in some 

herpetofaunal populations have stimulated a greater overall interest in the monitoring 

of these populations. Although studies have examined the use of exotic plant-invaded 

ecosystems by birds and mammals, few have focused on the herpetofaunal community. 

Specifically, there is little information on the ecology and management of reptiles and 

amphibians within riparian cottonwood forest (bosque) along the Middle Rio Grande in 

New Mexico. Invasion by exotic plant species and accumulation of woody debris have 

led to high fuel loadings and thus the risk of catastrophic fire in the bosque. Thus, land 

managers are interested in removing exotics and reducing fuels by various techniques. 

To effectively manage habitat and make sound decisions, managers must understand 

how various fuels reduction treatments affect wildlife communities, including the distribution, abundance, and ecology of amphibian and reptile populations. In 1999, the 

U.S. Forest Service- Rocky Mountain Research Station initiated a study to monitor and 

evaluate the response of vegetation and wildlife to three fuel reduction treatments in 

the Middle Rio Grande bosque. This component of the study will evaluate the impact 

of treatments on herpetofauna. Using pre- and post-treatment capture data from pitfall 

and funnel traps, we will analyze species-specific and community level responses to 

the treatments. Specifically, we will address how these treatments affect survivorship, 

species richness, abundance, diversity, reproduction, and community energy flow.
58 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Relative to birds and mammals, amphibians and 

reptiles are more efficient at transferring energy up the 

food chain and thus retaining energy within ecosystems. 

Because they are ectotherms, amphibians and reptiles 

expend little energy toward metabolic thermoregulation (using 7 to 10 times less energy per unit body mass 

than endotherms) and are more efficient at converting 

food into new tissue. This conversion efficiency is 

approximately 50 percent in ectotherms and only 2 percent in endotherms (Pough and others 2001). In a New 

Hampshire forest, salamanders collectively consumed 

less food than birds and mammals, but produced more 

animal mass per year than the birds and mammals combined (Burton and Likens 1975). Consuming smaller 

invertebrates on the forest floor, salamanders harvested 

energy unavailable to birds and mammals and returned 

it to the food chain as salamander biomass. Salamanders 

were also a higher-quality food source because they 

contained a greater percentage of protein than birds and 

mammals (Burton and Likens 1975).

Herpetofauna as Indicators

Amphibians and reptiles also serve another valuable 

role as indicator species of environmental and ecosystem 

health. Since the 1980s, herpetologists have reported 

worldwide declines in amphibian populations and species 

extinctions (Collins and Storfer 2003). These declines 

have prompted extensive investigations by government 

agencies to identify the causes of these abnormalities 

and if there is any potential risks to human health (Van 

der Schalie and others 1999). Hypotheses to explain 

these global amphibian declines include exotic species 

invasions, habitat alteration, exploitation, global climate 

change, and disease (Collins and Storfer 2003). Recent 

population declines have focused more attention on 

amphibians and reptiles, which have historically been 

overlooked. Managers and biologists are more concerned 

and aware of the potential effects of human activities 

on amphibian and reptile populations and their habitats. This paper focuses on effects of human activities 

on herpetofauna in the Middle Rio Grande bosque, a 

highly managed and altered southwestern riparian forest 

ecosystem.

The Middle Rio Grande 

Bosque Ecosystem

The Middle Rio Grande supports the most extensive, 

remaining gallery of cottonwood forest (Populus deltoides subspecies wislizeni) in the southwest (Hink and 

Ohmart 1984). This forest, or bosque, hosts a rich assemblage of vertebrates, particularly birds (Hink and Ohmart 

1984). In the past century, humans have dramatically 

altered the vegetative structure and composition of the 

bosque through damming, channelization, irrigation, urbanization, and restoration. Much of the previous extent 

of the bosque has been converted for agricultural or urban 

use, and the remaining bosque primarily exists between 

levee roads paralleling the river (Hink and Ohmart 1984, 

fig. 1). In the 20th century, engineers dammed and channelized the river to reduce the frequency and severity of 

flooding and to facilitate agriculture and water management. As a result, many natural processes in the bosque 

ecosystem have been disrupted or altered. For example, 

spring floods historically scoured forests of woody 

Figure 1. Cottonwood 

forests of the Middle 

Rio Grande bosque are 

largely confined to areas 

immediately adjacent 

the river. Surrounding 

floodplains have been 

converted for agricultural 

or urban use.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 59

debris and deposited new sediments on which cottonwood seedlings germinated (Howe and Knopf 1991, 

Taylor and others 1999). The absence of spring flood 

events has reduced recruitment in cottonwood populations and allowed invading plants, such as saltcedar 

(Tamarix ramosissima) and Russian olive (Elaeagnus 

angustifolia), to establish on sites formerly available to 

cottonwood (Howe and Knopf 1991). The quantities of 

woody debris in many areas of the bosque have also increased substantially due the lack of scouring floods (Ellis 

and others 1999). Accumulation of these woody debris, 

combined with dense stands of saltcedar and Russian 

olive in the understory, lead to fuel loadings capable of 

supporting catastrophic wildfires (Stuever 1997).

To reduce fire risk, restore cottonwood dominance, 

and increase groundwater availability, land managers 

have used herbicide, prescribed fire, chaining, ripping, 

and other mechanical manipulations to remove saltcedar 

and other invasive woody plants (Taylor and McDaniel 

1998, Taylor and others 1999, Dello Russo and Najmi, 

this proceedings). Vegetative structure and composition 

affect food, shelter, cover, and other resources available 

to wildlife. Thus, anthropogenic changes in the bosque 

have likely altered wildlife communities of these forests (for example, species composition, abundance, and 

interactions). Managers must understand the effects of 

various restoration treatments on wildlife communities 

and individual wildlife species to make sound decisions 

that balance management objectives (for example, reducing fire risk) with other considerations such as the 

Endangered Species Act, recreational use, aesthetic 

value, and ecosystem integrity.

What Do We Know About 

Herpetofauna in the Bosque?

Information on the herpetofaunal community of the 

Middle Rio Grande bosque is limited. A literature search 

of the BIOSIS Database revealed that only 10 percent 

of studies published on animals associated with the Rio 

Grande in New Mexico have focused on herpetofauna 

(fig. 2). Most studies focused on fish, birds, arthropods, 

or mammals. Because there are no studies of amphibians and reptiles in the bosque prior to channelization 

and damming of the river, it is difficult to characterize 

the herpetofaunal community of native, undisturbed 

cottonwood forest.

A list of expected species may be assembled from 

recent studies, historic and museum records, and habitat 

associations from Degenhardt and others (1996). More 

recently, Hink and Ohmart (1984) characterized herpetofauna associated with riparian vegetation of the Middle 

Rio Grande based on results of their pitfall surveys, 

museum records, and other field observations. Stuart 

and others (1995) reported herpetofauna captured at two 

sites within the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife 

Refuge (BDANWR) near Socorro, NM. Several studies 

have examined the lizard communities of desert riparian 

areas in Arizona. However, data from these studies are 

not comparable to Middle Rio Grande bosque because 

mesquite (Prosopis velutina) was the major overstory 

tree/shrub in the Arizona study areas, and cottonwood 

(Populus fremontii) and willow (Salix gooddingii) had 

only a scattered or occasional presence (Vitt and others 

1981, Jakle and Gatz 1985, Jones and Glinski 1985, Szaro 

and Belfit 1986).

Based on available literature, cottonwood forests and associated habitats of 

the Middle Rio Grande (including ditches, 

canals, ponds, sandbars, and drier peripheral riparian habitats) are used by at least 

50 reptile and amphibian species. Species 

that were captured (Hink and Ohmart 1984, 

Stuart and others 1995) and species with 

other types of records in the Middle Rio 

Grande bosque (Hink and Ohmart 1984, 

Degenhardt and others 1996, Bailey and others 2001) are listed in table 1. The Eastern 

Fence Lizard (Sceloporus undulatus), New 

Mexico Whiptail (Aspidoscelis neomexicana, formerly genus Cnemidophorus from 

Reeder and others 2002), and Woodhouse’s 

Toad (Bufo woodhousii) were frequently captured from 

Española to Socorro, NM (Hink and Ohmart 1984). 

Fifteen other species of lizards, snakes, amphibians, and 

Figure 2. Results of a literature search of the BIOSIS Database 

(1969-2004) for studies of vertebrates and arthropods that 

occurred along the Rio Grande in New Mexico.
60 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

turtles were captured infrequently, at a limited number 

of locations, or both (Hink and Ohmart 1984, table 1). 

An additional 23 species of reptiles and amphibians 

were occasionally sighted or otherwise documented in 

the Middle Rio Grande Valley (Hink and Ohmart 1984, 

table 1). In two mixed stands of mature cottonwood and 

Table 1. Species list of herpetofauna observed or captured in the Middle Rio Grande bosque and associated habitats (including 

ditches, canals, ponds, sandbars, and drier peripheral riparian habitat). Reference codes are as follows: HC = captures by 

Hink and Ohmart (1984), HM = museum records and other observations reported in Hink and Ohmart (1984) Appendix 2, D = 

habitat associations from Degenhardt and others (1996), B = Bailey and others (2001), S = captures by Stuart and others at 

BDANWR (1995).

Taxa	 Scientific Name	 Common Name	 Reference

Amphibians Ambystoma tigrinum Tiger Salamander HC, D, B, S

Bufo cognatus Great Plains Toad HC, D, B

Bufo punctatus Red-spotted Toad HM

Bufo woodhousii Woodhouse’s Toad HC, D, B, S

Pseudacris triseriata Western Chorus Frog HC, D, B

Rana blairi Plains Leopard Frog B

Rana catesbeiana American Bullfrog HC, D

Rana pipiens Northern Leopard Frog HM, D, B

Scaphiopus couchii Couch’s Spadefoot HM, D, B

Spea bombifrons Plains Spadefoot HC, B

Spea multiplicata stagnalis New Mexico Spadefoot HM, D, B

Turtles Apalone spinifera Spiny Softshell Turtle HC, D, B

Chelydra serpentina serpentina Eastern Snapping Turtle D

Chrysemys picta Painted Turtle HM, D, B

Terrapene ornata Ornate Box Turtle HM, D, B

Trachemys gaigeae gaigeae Big Bend Slider D, B

Trachemys scripta elegans Red-eared Slider D

Lizards Aspidoscelis exsanguis Chihuahuan Spotted Whiptail HC, D, S

Aspidoscelis inornata Little Striped Whiptail HC, D, S

Aspidoscelis neomexicana New Mexico Whiptail HC, D

Aspidoscelis tesselata Common Checkered Whiptail HM, D

Aspidoscelis tigris Tiger Whiptail HM

Aspidoscelis uniparens Desert Grassland Whiptail HM, D, S

Aspidoscelis velox Plateau Striped Whiptail HC

Cophosaurus texanus Greater Earless Lizard D

Crotaphytus collaris Eastern Collared Lizard D

Eumeces obsoletus Great Plains Skink HC, D, B

Holbrookia maculata Common Lesser Earless Lizard HC

Phrynosoma hernandesi Greater Short-horned Lizard HM

Phrynosoma modestum Round-tailed Horned Lizard HC, D

Sceloporus magister Desert Spiny Lizard HM, D, B

Sceloporus undulatus Eastern Fence Lizard HC, D, S

Urosaurus ornatus Ornate Tree Lizard D

Uta stansburiana Common Side-blotched Lizard HC, D

Snakes Arizona elegans Glossy Snake HC

Coluber constrictor Eastern Racer HM, D, B

Crotalus atrox Western Diamond-backed Rattlesnake HM, B

Crotalus viridis Prairie Rattlesnake HM, B

Heterodon nasicus Western Hog-nosed Snake HM

Lampropeltis getula Common Kingsnake HM, D, B, S

Leptotyphlops dissectus New Mexico Threadsnake D, B

Masticophis flagellum Coachwhip HM, B

Pituophis catenifer Gophersnake HM, D, B

Rhinocheilus lecontei Long-nosed Snake HM

Sistrurus catenatus Massasauga HM

Tantilla nigriceps Plains Black-headed Snake HM, B, S

Thamnophis cyrtopsis Black-necked Gartersnake HM, D, B

Thamnophis elegans Terrestrial Gartersnake D, B

Thamnophis marcianus Checkered Gartersnake HM, D, B

Thamnophis sirtalis Common Gartersnake HC, D, B

saltcedar at BDANWR, Stuart and others (1995) detected 

eight amphibian and reptile species (table 1).

Most of the species captured are typically associated 

with upland habitats (for example, desert grasslands, 

shrublands, and arroyos) rather than mesic riparian forest (Degenhardt and others 1996). Hence, capture rates 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 61

herpetofaunal diversity, community ecology, and species 

distributions, abundances, and interactions.

What Can We Learn From Other Taxa?

Answers to these questions are difficult due to the 

lack of information on amphibians and reptiles in native 

bosque prior to recent anthropogenic changes. Although 

there is no published literature on the effects of these 

changes on herpetofaunal communities, researchers 

have compared arthropod, bird, and rodent communities in cottonwood and saltcedar habitats, and results 

of these studies may provide insight into herpetofaunal 

community responses.

Ellis and others (2000) described arthropod richness, 

abundance, and composition in cottonwood and saltcedar sites at BDANWR. Cottonwood sites had a greater 

abundance of abundance of exotic isopods (Isopoda), 

which are leaf macrodetritivores. Spider richness and 

abundance were greater in saltcedar sites. The abundance 

of other insect taxa was similar or greater in saltcedar 

sites than cottonwood sites. Thus, although saltcedar 

has altered riparian ecosystems, it does support a varied 

and abundant surface-dwelling arthropod community 

which in turn, support amphibians, reptiles and other 

vertebrates.

The bosque hosts a rich assemblage of birds in both 

cottonwood and saltcedar habitats (Hink and Ohmart 

1984). Cottonwood and saltcedar habitats were similar in number of species during spring, summer, and 

fall, although species composition differed seasonally 

(Hunter 1985, Ellis 1995). During the spring breeding 

season, more neotropical migrant species were found in 

cottonwood habitats than saltcedar (Hunter 1985, Ellis 

1995).

Ellis and others (1997) described rodent communities in cottonwood and saltcedar sites. White-footed 

mice (Peromyscus leucopus) were the most abundant 

species in the bosque. Whitethroat woodrats (Neotoma 

albigula) occurred only in cottonwood sites. Overall, 

rodent species richness was greater in saltcedar sites 

than cottonwood sites. Similar to the herpetofaunal community, most rodents were upland and grassland species, 

not riparian specialists.

Effects of Habitat Loss

Damming, channelization, and water diversion have 

resulted in the loss of wetlands and meadow habitats 

along the Middle Rio Grande (Hink and Ohmart 1984, 

D. McDonnell, University of New Mexico, personal 

communication 2004). Biologists and managers must 

understand how the loss of these unique habitats has 

impacted amphibians and other aquatic-associated 

were highest in open vegetation types with sandy soils 

and sparse ground cover and lowest in stands with dense 

understories (Hink and Ohmart 1984). Species captured 

more frequently in open, sandy habitats with sparse 

vegetation (for example, open stands of intermediate 

aged cottonwoods) included Eastern Fence Lizards, 

New Mexico Whiptails, Chihuahuan Spotted Whiptails 

(A. exsanguis), Woodhouse’s Toads, Great Plains Toads 

(Bufo cognatus), and Plains Spadefoots (Spea bombifrons, Hink and Ohmart 1984). However, Great Plains 

Skinks (Eumeces obsoletus) were captured frequently in 

stands with densely vegetated understories.

Species associated with wetter habitats within the 

bosque (for example, near permanent water) included 

Gartersnakes (Thamnophis spp.), Spiny Softshell Turtles 

(Apalone spinifera), Tiger Salamanders (Ambystoma tigrinum), Western Chorus Frogs (Pseudacris triseriata), 

and American Bullfrogs (Rana catesbeiana, Hink and 

Ohmart 1984). Although once abundant in the bosque, 

Northern Leopard Frogs (Rana pipiens) were rarely 

captured by Hink and Ohmart (1984) and are considered 

extirpated from Bernalillo, Socorro, and Sierra counties 

(Applegarth 1983, Bailey and others 2001). The absence 

or low numbers of these species captured likely reflect 

the loss of suitable wetland habitat along the river. From 

1935 to 1989, surface area covered by wet meadows, 

marshes, and ponds declined by 73 percent along 250 

miles of Middle Rio Grande floodplain (Roelle and 

Hagenbuck 1995).

What Should We Know and 

Why?

Cottonwood forests of the bosque exist in a variety 

of states (for example, minimally-invaded, highly-invaded, or ‘restored’) as a result of initial alterations 

(for example, dams and channelization), subsequent 

changes (for example, invasive plants and accumulation of debris), and restoration efforts (for example, 

removal of invasive plants, herbicide application, and 

prescribed fire). Amphibian and reptile populations respond to changes in abiotic factors, such as structural 

heterogeneity and substrate moisture (Cunningham and 

others 2002, James and M’Closkey 2003), as well as 

biotic factors such as insect availability and predation 

(Sabo and Power 2002). Simply detecting changes in 

herpetofaunal populations is not adequate for guiding 

management activities. Rather, understanding the causes 

of observed population changes is necessary to design 

appropriate management responses (Gibbs and others 

1999). Thus, questions arise regarding how changes 

in forest structure and composition have affected 
62 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

species in the bosque and whether urban areas, agricultural fields, and irrigation canals provide alternative, 

quality habitats for these species.

Effects of Fuels Reduction Treatments

Treatments to decrease fuel loadings in the bosque 

are needed to reduce the risk of catastrophic wildfire 

to people, their homes, and businesses in surrounding 

urban and rural areas (Taylor 2001). Information is 

needed on the impacts of various treatments on herpetofaunal species and communities and opportunities 

for mitigating adverse effects. For example, in pinyonjuniper woodlands of western Colorado, spiny lizards 

(genus Sceloporus) prefer standing dead trees for shelter, 

perching, foraging, and other activities. Loss of these 

trees through fuels reduction treatments would reduce 

habitat for spiny lizards (James and M’Closkey 2003). 

However, these negative effects may be mitigated by 

leaving a percentage of dead standing trees after treatment. Information on the life history and specific habitat 

requirements of amphibian and reptile species within 

the bosque is required to answer these questions as 

they pertain to fuels management along the Middle Rio 

Grande. Species adapted for open environments may 

respond favorably to fuels reduction, whereas species 

requiring more cover or moist habitats may be negatively 

affected. The challenge facing managers, researchers, 

and biologists is to identify treatment alternatives that 

will achieve as many management objectives as possible (for example, fuels reduction, control of exotic 

plant species, endangered species habitat improvement, 

improved water management and delivery, restoration of 

native plant species, biodiversity, and positive or neutral 

effects on wildlife).

Other Considerations

Many management decisions are often weighed by 

their impacts on biodiversity, and a high species richness 

is often favored. However, community productivity and 

desired species composition are also important considerations when evaluating management activities. The 

number of animals supported in an area depends on the 

amount of energy available, and amount of energy available is determined by plant primary productivity (Damuth 

1987). Will removal of exotic plant biomass temporarily 

decrease energy available and thus the number of insects, 

birds, mammals, amphibians, and reptiles supported on 

treated sites?

Ernest and Brown (2001) found that abundance, 

biomass, and energy use mirror fluctuations in primary 

production, whereas species composition may not follow 

the same pattern. For example, two sites may have the 

same number of species, but could differ in the size, abundance, and density of those animals, which is measured 

by population-level energy use. Therefore, by tracking 

changes in population-level energy use rather than solely 

species composition or diversity, we can assess fluctuations in ecosystem function, or resource supply, caused 

by fuels reduction treatments.

Managers may also be required to make value judgments as to whether changes in species composition and 

abundance are favorable or unfavorable. All-female, 

or parthenogenic, lizard species are common in marginal, ecotonal, or disturbed habitats and consequently, 

have been called ‘weedy species’ (Wright and Lowe 

1968). Parthenogenic species such as the New Mexico 

Whiptail, Desert Grassland Whiptail (A. uniparens), 

and the Chihuahuan Spotted Whiptail are the most frequently captured whiptails in the Middle Rio Grande 

bosque (Hink and Ohmart 1984, Stuart and others 1995). 

However, populations of the Little Striped Whiptail 

(A. inornata), a nonparthenogenic species, were found 

in the bosque of BDANWR (Stuart and others 1995). 

Would it be considered a negative consequence if management activities fostered populations of this bisexual, 

nonparthenogenic grassland species at the cost of other 

parthenogenic whiptail species and a decline in species 

diversity? Are managers interested in maximizing biodiversity, restoring native species to bosque, or enhancing 

habitat for declining species? Research cannot answer 

these questions, but it can provide information helpful 

to making decisions.

The Fuels Reduction Project

In 1999, scientists with the U.S. Forest Service Rocky 

Mountain Research Station initiated an interagency, 

collaborative project to evaluate the effectiveness of 

three fuel reduction treatments at sites in the Middle Rio 

Grande bosque and monitor their effects on groundwater, 

vegetation, soils, and wildlife. Cooperators on this project include Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, 

BDANWR, City of Albuquerque Open Space Division, 

Bureau of Land Management, New Mexico Department of 

Environment, Texas Agriculture Experiment Station, and 

the NRCS Plants Material Center. This project attempts to 

identify the most effective fuels reduction and exotic plant 

removal method that will preserve native plants, reduce 

fire risk, and have a positive or least-negative impact on 

native wildlife species (Finch and others 2002).

Project Area

The project area encompasses approximately 129 km 

of riverside bosque from Albuquerque to the BDANWR. 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 63

Twelve sites were selected along this stretch of the river, 

each with relatively homogeneous vegetation, approximately 20 hectares in size, and composed of a mature 

cottonwood overstory and an exotic woody understory 

(specifically, saltcedar and Russian olive). To achieve a 

randomized block design, the 12 sites were subdivided 

into three blocks of four sites each, and each of the four 

sites was randomly assigned a treatment type. Treatment 

1 consists of mechanical removal of dead and down wood 

and exotic trees and shrubs followed by spot application of herbicide to cut stumps. Treatment 2 consists of 

procedures in treatment 1 followed by a light, prescribed 

fire. Treatment 3 consists of procedures in treatment 1 

followed by revegetation with native shrubs. Treatment 

4 is the control and consists of no treatment.

Monitoring

To evaluate effects of treatments on herpetofaunal 

communities, we are monitoring populations (primarily 

lizards and amphibians) via drift fence arrays, pitfalls, 

and funnel traps. Drift fences, pitfalls, and funnel traps 

are being used simultaneously because multiple techniques result in a more complete sampling of amphibian 

and reptile communities (Jorgensen and others 1998, 

Crosswhite and others 1999). Each of the 12 sites has 

three arrays. Each array consists of six pitfalls and six 

funnel traps positioned along a set of fences. There are a 

total of 216 pitfalls and 216 funnel traps at the 12 study 

sites. Each year, traps are open continuously from the first 

week of June to mid September and are checked three 

times per week from 0600 and 1400 hrs. Snout-to-vent 

length, tail length, age (hatchling or adult) and weight of 

all animals are recorded. Individuals of all lizard species 

and Woodhouse’s Toads are uniquely identified via toe 

clipping for mark-recapture analysis. Other amphibians 

and snakes are not captured in sufficient numbers to 

warrant marking.

Herpetofaunal Research 

Questions

Habitat Relations

Using pre- and post-treatment trapping results and 

associated vegetation data (such as vegetation structure, 

plant species composition, density, canopy cover, litter 

depth, and woody debris), we will address several of the 

questions posed. Data from this study will provide insight 

into the natural history of many species, some of which 

are little studied to date. For species that are more commonly found in upland habitats, these data will provide 

specific information regarding their habitat use in riparian 

cottonwood forests. For example, parthenogenic whiptail 

species have been studied in upland and riparian habitats 

of the Lower Rio Grande in Texas and Mexico (Walker 

1987, Walker and others 1990), but little is known about 

their behavior and habitat use along the Middle Rio 

Grande. Our study will help describe how these populations respond to habitat disturbance and the degree to 

which they overlap with sexual whiptail species.

Species-specific Responses

Pre- and post-treatment information collected on 

animals and vegetation will allow us to describe how 

treatments impact amphibians and reptiles at different life stages and whether new species colonize 

after different treatments. In particular, we will address 

species-specific responses to treatments, how populations 

of parthenogenic species respond to treatment-related 

habitat changes, and how populations of aquatic or mesic-associated species respond to treatments.

Species Diversity

Avian and lizard diversity are typically greater in 

complex, heterogeneous environments (MacArthur 1958, 

Pianka 1967, Farley and others 1994). We will describe diversity with rank-abundance curves and examine whether 

differences in spatial heterogeneity among or within sites 

are associated with changes in herpetofaunal diversity.

Ecosystem Function

We are interested in linking species and population-level responses to changes in the ecosystem. To 

assess energy availability for each site, we will evaluate 

population-level energy use (Ernest and Brown 2001) by 

amphibians and reptiles in sites before and after treatment. Population-level energy use is calculated from 

species density, species-specific metabolic rate, and 

body mass. This will estimate the amount of energy in 

the herpetofaunal community.

Project Status

Although data collection for this project began in summer 2000, initial phases of treatments have only recently 

been completed. Mechanical removal and herbicide 

phases of treatments occurred at five sites during fall and 

winter of 2002-2003 and at three sites during fall and 

winter of 2003-2004. Mechanical removal will occur at 

the remaining site in fall 2004, and final phases of treatments (prescribed fire and revegetation) will completed 

by spring 2004. The first season of post-treatment data 

was collected this summer 2004 at 11 of the 12 sites.
64 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Preliminary Results

A total of 9,857 individuals of 32 species (8 amphibians, 11 lizards, 12 snakes, and 1 turtle) have been 

captured during the 2000 through 2003 seasons (table 

2). Because the arrays are less effective at capturing amphibians and snakes, the majority of individuals captured 

were lizards. Four species, including the Eastern Fence 

Lizard, New Mexico Whiptail, Chihuahuan Spotted 

Whiptail, and Great Plains Skink, were present at most 

or all sites (11 or 12 sites). Fewer aquatic or moist habitat species are represented. Similar to previous studies, 

the majority of species captured were upland species. 

For example, the New Mexico Whiptail is typically 

associated with open, sparse vegetation (Christiansen 

and others 1971). The large number of captures of this 

and other species is surprising considering the high 

degree of canopy cover, and therefore shading, at our 

sites (x = 83.3 + 3.3 percent S.E.). At least 3 years of 

posttreatment data (2004-2006) will be collected at all 

sites, and data analysis will begin at the close of the 

field season in mid September 2004.

References

Applegarth, J. S. 1983. Status of the leopard frog (Rana 

pipiens) and the painted turtle (Chrysemys picta) in the 

Rio Grande of north-central NM. Research report, Corps 

of Engineers, Albuquerque District, 78 p.

Bailey, James A.; Propst, David L.; Painter; Charles W.; 

Schmitt, C. Gregory; Willimas, Sartor O., III. 2001. Status 

of native wildlife in the Middle Rio Grande Valley of 

New Mexico. The New Mexico Journal of Science 41(1): 

30-40.

Burton, Thomas M.; Likens, Gene E. 1975. Energy flow and 

nutrient cycling in salamander populations in the Hubbard 

Brook Experimental Forest, New Hampshire. Ecology 56: 

1068-1080.

Christiansen, James L.; Degenhardt, William G.; White, James 

E. 1971. Habitat preferences of Cnemidophorus inornatus

Table 2. Species list of herpetofauna captured in the Middle Rio Grande bosque during the RMRS fuels reduction 

project (2000 to 2003), ordered within taxa by total number of captures.

Taxa	 Scientific Name	 Common Name	 Number

Amphibians Bufo woodhousii Woodhouse’s Toad 617

Bufo cognatus Great Plains Toad 58

Scaphiopus couchii Couch’s Spadefoot 40

Spea multiplicata stagnalis New Mexico Spadefoot 13

Ambystoma tigrinum Tiger Salamander 2

Rana catesbeiana American Bullfrog 2

Spea bombifrons Plains Spadefoot 2

Pseudacris triseriata Western Chorus Frog 1

Turtles Apalone spinifera Spiny Softshell Turtle 1

Lizards Sceloporus undulatus Eastern Fence Lizard 2755

Aspidoscelis neomexicana New Mexico Whiptail 2569

Aspidoscelis exsanguis Chihuahuan Spotted Whiptail 2034

Aspidoscelis uniparens Desert Grassland Whiptail 1139

Eumeces obsoletus Great Plains Skink 397

Sceloporus magister Desert Spiny Lizard 73

Uta stansburiana Common Side-blotched Lizard 35

Aspidoscelis tigris Tiger Whiptail 29

Aspidoscelis tesselata Common Checkered Whiptail 12

Aspidoscelis inornata Little Striped Whiptail 1

Phrynosoma cornutum Texas Horned Lizard 1

Snakes Lampropeltis getula Common Kingsnake 24

Pituophis catenifer Gophersnake 15

Heterodon nasicus Western Hog-nosed Snake 9

Thamnophis sirtalis Common Gartersnake 8

Tantilla nigriceps Plains Black-headed Snake 7

Thamnophis marcianus Checkered Gartersnake 4

Masticophis flagellum Coachwhip 3

Thamnophis elegans Terrestrial Gartersnake 2

Arizona elegans Glossy Snake 1

Crotalus viridis Prairie Rattlesnake 1

Leptotyphlops dissectus New Mexico Threadsnake 1

Rhinocheilus lecontei Long-nosed Snake 1

Crotalus atrox Western Diamond-backed Rattlesnake 0a

a

 Observed at study site, but not captured.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 65

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 67

Introduction

Rangelands of western North America and Patagonia 

(Argentina) share important physical and productive 

characteristics. Such similarities should allow a meaningful assessment of the relevance and applicability of 

the Sustainable Rangeland Roundtable (SRR) monitoring framework to rangelands outside North America. 

Differences in land use regulations and land tenure regimes between regions, on the other hand, are sufficient 

to make this comparison an interesting and worth-while 

endeavor.

The objective of this paper is to assess the relevance 

and applicability of the criteria and indicators (C&I) 

proposed by SRR to conditions in Patagonia (Argentina). 

We will first describe Patagonian rangelands and briefly 

compare them to rangelands in western North America. 

We will then give a concise overview of the social, 

economic, and environmental conditions in Patagonia, 

followed by an account of current rangeland monitoring 

efforts in the region. The last and most important section 

of this paper will deal with the relevance assessment 

itself. In this section we will summarize the main results 

and conclusions of this exercise.

Rangelands of Patagonia 

(Argentina) in Relation to Their 

North American Counterparts

Rangelands occupy over 90 percent of the land area 

of Patagonia, a region of cold semi-arid deserts on the 

southernmost end of the South American continent (Lat 

39° to 55° S). In this paper we will focus mainly on 

Patagonia’s grazing lands East of the Andes in southern 

Argentina (approximately 750 000 km2).

Most of Patagonia lies in the rain shadow of the Andes. 

Mean annual precipitation rarely exceeds 250 mm except 

in the forested foothill ranges where rainfalls can exceed 

1,000 mm. (Soriano 1983). Rainfall occurs mainly during winter across most of the region (Paruelo and others 

1998). Mean annual temperatures range from 15.9°C 

in the North to approximately 5.4°C in the far South 

of Tierra del Fuego (Soriano 1983). Strong persistent 

westerly winds are one of the most distinctive characteristics of Patagonia’s climate; gusts of 100 km/h, or 

more, are common in spring and summer (Paruelo and 

others 1998). Over 70 percent of Patagonia’s topsoil is 

coarse-textured, and almost 90 percent of soils in the 

Relevance of the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable 

Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Rangeland 

Management to Conditions in Patagonia (Argentina)

Andrés F. Cibils, Assistant Professor, Range Science, Department of Animal and Range 

Sciences, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

Gabriel E. Oliva, Research Scientist, INTA-EEA Santa Cruz and Professor at the Universidad 

Nacional de la Patagonia Austral, Casilla 332, (9400) Río Gallegos, Argentina

Abstract—Patagonia’s rangelands are similar to those in western United States in 

terms of climate, topography, and vegetation physiognomy. However, differences in 

environmental, economic, and societal values do exist between regions. We assessed 

the usefulness of C&I (Criteria and Indicators) developed in the United States for other 

countries, and identified indicators not included in the SRR (Sustainable Rangelands 

Roundtable) set that would be important for monitoring the sustainability of Patagonia’s 

rangelands. Most of SRR’s C&I were relevant to conditions in Patagonia (Argentina). Less 

than half the indicators were applicable, however, due to the relative paucity of data 

and validated models. This exercise suggested that a shorter list of essential indicators 

may be necessary to realistically conduct regional long-term assessments of overall 

sustainability of rangeland ecosystems in developing countries.
68 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

region exhibit some degree of degradation, mostly as a 

consequence of improper land use. Severe desertification affects about a third of Patagonia (Del Valle 1998); 

some of its most dramatic expressions are the lenguas 

medanosas (sand dunes) that covered an area of approximately 85 000 km2

 in the early 1970s. Many of these 

accumulations are about 100 years old, suggesting that 

the rate of wind-driven erosion processes may have been 

accelerated by the introduction of domestic livestock in 

the region (Soriano 1983).

Patagonian rangelands are primarily treeless shrub and 

grass steppes that give way to dwarf-shrub semi-deserts 

in the drier areas of the central plateaus (Roig 1998). 

Vegetation is mostly made up of xerophytic species that 

have evolved remarkable adaptations to cope with severe 

water stress conditions (León and others 1998). Blended 

in the steppe landscapes are riparian areas (vegas or mallines) associated with rivers and other permanent water 

sources. Although mallines are a very small proportion of 

the total land area of Patagonia, they frequently play a key 

role in livestock production and, in many instances, are 

the ecosystems most severely affected by improper land 

management decisions (Golluscio and others 1998).

Patagonian and western North American rangelands 

exhibit a number of geomorphologic, edaphic, botanical 

and land use similarities. Both regions share genera of 

important grasses (Stipa, Festuca, Poa), sedges (Carex), 

and shrubs (Larrea, Prosopis, Lycium, Atriplex). Forage 

production and grazing capacity of areas with similar 

annual rainfall are analogous. Commercial livestock 

and sheep grazing enterprises are a fundamental element of rangeland livelihood of both Patagonian and 

western North American rangelands. Ranch management 

practices, animal handling skills, and educational background of operators in both regions are also comparable. 

Furthermore, tensions between multiple rangeland use 

alternatives, particularly in the case of oil and gas production, have been well documented in both regions.

Rangelands of Patagonia and western North America 

also exhibit a number of important differences, the most 

significant of which is possibly associated with land ownership regime. In stark contrast to western North America, 

almost all of Patagonian rangelands are privately owned 

and, therefore, grazing use is virtually unregulated. In 

addition, rangeland science and management tradition is 

fairly young in most of Patagonia; widespread application 

of range survey methods to determine grazing capacity 

of commercial ranches did not begin until the late 1980s. 

Most of Patagonia’s rangelands have been (and still are) 

grazed by sheep rather than cattle. Wool productiondriven grazing management is thought to have greatly 

contributed to desertification in the region. Surprisingly, 

invasive noxious weeds are not a widespread problem 

on Patagonia’s rangelands.

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Sustainability 

of Rangelands of Patagonia 

(Argentina)

Social aspects: Pastoral use history of rangelands 

in Patagonia is relatively recent; even today there are 

less than 2.3 inhabitants per square kilometer (INDEC 

2001). Colonization of this vast land took place in the 

late 1880’s, after military “desert” campaigns subjugated 

native peoples and the country offered land for colonization, mainly to Argentine and Chilean “criollos” but 

also to settlers of European or Middle-Eastern descent, 

including Spaniards, English, Scottish, Italians, SyrianLebanese and Yugoslavians. Native peoples were mainly 

hunters and gatherers: the Tehuelche in the south did 

not endure the cultural impact of colonization and are 

now severely reduced in number, while the Mapuche 

people, in the north, recovered after an initial descent. 

Both groups add up to 23 to 50 thousand people, about 

1.4 to 3.5 percent of the residents of the region. Early 

(1880-1900), colonization was actively encouraged by 

the government and settlers were given access to pastoral 

leases in large areas of the most productive or readily 

accessible land. At the turn of the 19th century, poorer 

settlers took part in the colonization of arid or inaccessible areas. The land was divided geometrically into 

allotments of about 10 to 20 thousand hectares without 

considering environmental factors or the balance of 

range types, water points, or wintering areas within the 

properties (Barbería 1995). Native Americans remained 

on the land in small subsistence allotments of about 500 

to 2500 hectares or in a few reservations. Freehold rights 

consolidated land tenure of most of the big “estancias” at 

the turn of the 20th century, but small allotments remain 

mostly with informal or traditional occupation, a great 

number of them unfenced.

Economic Aspects

The sheep industry flourished until 1920, while prices 

of wool were high and undisturbed grasslands could take 

heavy grazing pressures. Sheep numbers peaked by 1937, 

(fig. 1), and remained stable for almost 50 years (Oliva 

and others 1995, Escobar 1997, Mendez Casariego 2000). 

In the 1980’s, a generalized stock reduction process was 

triggered by a combination of lower international wool 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 69

and meat prices, loss of productivity due to rangeland 

degradation, and macroeconomic policies that inflated 

the value of local currency (Borrelli and others 1997, 

Mendez Casariego 2000). These factors put most sheep 

ranching enterprises in a difficult financial position; by 

the end of the 20th century most ranchers had become 

heavily indebted and had drastically reduced their work 

force. This crisis primarily affected mid-sized (20.000 

hectares) family-owned ranches in the Central Plateau 

of Santa Cruz, where about 440 (40 percent of the total) 

estancias have been abandoned or remain occupied by 

caretakers with no pastoral activities. Rural population 

in Santa Cruz fell from 24.500 in 1960 to 13.700 in 1991 

(Mendez Casariego 2000). Changes in macroeconomic 

policies implemented in 2002 have increased the profits 

of the sheep ranching industry (Teran and Claps 2002), 

and there is currently a strong predisposition to re-colonize vacant lands.

Environmental Aspects

Heavy grazing-induced degradation processes were 

described early on by Bailey Willis (1914, as cited in 

Castro (1983), Morrison (1917), Auer (1951), Soriano 

(1953), Soriano (1956a, b) and Movia and others (1987). 

Soil erosion was treated using dune control techniques 

as early as 1950 (Castro 1983). Nevertheless, the underlying causes of degradation were not addressed, and 

heavy stocking rates remained in place until the 1980’s. 

Regional evaluation of desertification using satellite imagery began in the early 1990’s and showed that severe 

or very severe desertification had affected approximately 

34 percent of Patagonia (Goergen 1995, Del Valle and 

others 1998).

The Role of Government 

Administration

According to the Argentine constitution, natural resources, including rangelands, are under the jurisdiction 

of provincial governments. Sadly, environmental consequences of improper grazing have rarely been addressed 

by provincial or national government policies due to the 

fact that most of the land is under freehold tenure and 

there is no constitutional mandate to monitor the state and 

management of rangelands. Grazing has therefore, gone 

unregulated and conservative management has depended 

mostly on the perceptions and goodwill of landowners. 

Due to social and political influence of traditional rancher 

associations, significant amounts of public funds have 

frequently been directed towards the maintenance and 

expansion of the sheep industry through subsidies and 

financial support regardless of the grazing capacity of 

rangelands. Joint desertification projects sponsored by the 

Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA, 

Argentina) and the Deustche Gesellschaft fur Technische 

Zusammenarbeit (GTZ, Germany) from 1989 to 2002 

helped increase public awareness regarding the threat 

that desertification posed to the region, and stimulated 

the design and fairly extensive application of rangeland 

survey and monitoring techniques. The trend of public 

fund allocation has changed in recent years since the passing of a Sheep Act in 2002 (Poder_Legislativo_Nacional 

2004) that assigns about $7 M yearly to projects that can 

demonstrate ecological sustainability through certified 

range evaluation. Rancher associations participate in the 

distribution of these funds that support the development 

of a regional-scale monitoring system. A project with 

Figure 1. Sheep numbers in Patagonia (From 

Borelli and Cibils 2004).
70 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

funding currently under consideration by the Global 

Environment Facility Program of the World Bank (GEF) 

will address three aspects that the Sheep Act of 2002 

does not include, namely: 1) rangeland monitoring; 2) 

education; and 3) diversity conservation through public 

and private protected areas. Such recent developments allow moderate optimism regarding a change in long-term 

government rangeland conservation policies.

Rangeland Monitoring in 

Patagonia

Rangeland management in Patagonia emerged as a 

scientific discipline in the 70’s as a product of regionwide projects funded by FAO (Food and Agriculture 

Organization of the United Nations), INTA, and BID 

(Inter-American Development Bank). During the early 

80’s researchers began applying traditional range-condition analysis and developing range condition guides for a 

few sites in the region (Borrelli and others 1984, Borrelli 

and others 1988, Bonvisutto and others 1993, Nakamatsu 

and others 1993, Paruelo and others 1993). Considerable 

effort was later put into transforming range condition 

guides into state and transition models (Paruelo and others 1993). However, ecological status guides were soon 

almost totally replaced by practical methods to assess 

forage availability at the scale of individual pastures in 

expeditious and cost effective ways.

Two separate approaches were developed to survey 

grazing capacity of rangelands. The first, known as 

“Pastoral Value Method” (PVM) (Elissalde and others 2002), calculated cover of all plant species with 

step transects and transformed cover data into forage 

availability estimates using coefficients that considered plant species palatability and nutritional value. 

The second technique known as “Santa Cruz Method” 

(SCM) (Borrelli and Oliva 1999, Borrelli and others 

1999, Borrelli and Oliva 2001), included estimates of 

shortgrass and forb biomass (by clipping cuadrats) and 

stubble heights of key shortgrass species. The PVM has 

been used to determine grazing capacity of shrublands 

in northern Patagonia whereas dwarf shrublands and 

tussock grasslands of southern Patagonia (including the 

island of Tierra del Fuego) have been mostly surveyed 

using the SCM. Both methods rely on previous site 

inventories using Landsat TM satellite imagery and 

on-the-ground GPS sampling to produce ranch maps 

as base cartography of natural resources is very scarce 

in most of the Region.

Both the PVM and SCM are now officially recognized 

by provincial governments in Patagonia. Provincial 

governments sponsor annual training courses and keep 

official registries of certified rangeland surveyors. Over 

6 percent of rangelands (1.4 million hectares) of southern 

Patagonia (Santa Cruz and Tierra del Fuego) have been 

surveyed; approximately 60 percent of the ranches in the 

most productive areas have been surveyed with the SCM 

at least once. A somewhat smaller but similarly important 

area has been surveyed using the PVM in the provinces of 

Chubut, Río Negro and Neuquén. Because the Sheep Act 

of 2002 requires producers to submit certified rangeland 

surveys to qualify for government subsidies and loans, 

the area of surveyed rangelands is expected to increase 

steadily in the years to come.

Although the PVM and SCM give valuable rangeland 

management information, they have not been designed 

to monitor regional ecological trends through time. The 

SCM estimates yearly forage biomass at a ranch scale 

relying on the “take half, use half” rule of thumb for a 

few key species assuming that this rate of utilization will 

not have detrimental effects on rangeland condition. The 

PVM includes an estimate of cover for all plant species 

in addition to the percent of bare soil, but is usually 

performed only once in order to obtain an initial forage 

assessment; subsequently stocking rates are adjusted following rain patterns (Rimoldi and Buono 2001).

The need for an independent method to establish rangeland state and trend at the scale of range types (from 0.4 to 

14.3 M ha) and at relevant time scales (decades) has been 

acknowledged recently, and an INTA-GTZ project has 

enabled range scientists of Patagonia to discuss an initial 

methods to monitor vegetation and soil. This monitoring 

system, known as MARAS (Monitoreo Ambiental de 

la Región Arida y Semiárida de Patagonia, (Oliva and 

others 2004) is based on Australia ́s WARMS method 

(Western Australia Monitoring System), and includes 

point intercept transects or frequency samples to evaluate herbaceous vegetation and Camfield lines to monitor 

shrubs. Soil surface sampling and shake tests are also performed to monitor topsoil integrity. Monitoring stations 

will be set up at a rate of 1: 20.000 hectares and will be 

measured every five years. MARAS has received funding 

from the Sheep Act of 2002 to train field personnel, install 

the first monitoring sites, and design a web-based data 

bank that will be accessed by government agencies and 

NGOs. In the future, MARAS could supply information 

to monitor vegetation cover, species composition, forage 

biomass and soil condition of rangelands in Patagonia. 

To date, there are no plans in place to incorporate social 

or economic variables into this monitoring system.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 71

Relevance of SRR C&I to 

Conditions in Patagonia 

(Argentina)

To asses the relevance of SRR C&I to conditions in 

Patagonia we followed the overall framework developed 

by SRR to refine the Sustainable Forest Roundtable’s list 

of C&I. Specifically, we asked: 1) Is this indicator important to conditions in Patagonia?; 2) Can it be monitored 

with current data and models?; 3) Can it be monitored 

adequately over time?. In cases where the answer to our 

second question was “no” we added a fourth question: 4) 

Is there a feasible plan in place to monitor this indicator 

in the future?

Most of the SRR criteria were classified as being 

relevant to conditions in Patagonia (table 1). Only a few 

indicators, mostly within criterion 2, were classified as 

not being applicable to Patagonian rangelands. For example, area of land in rangelands is fairly stable and is 

not threatened by urban growth or agriculture. Therefore, 

fragmentation of rangeland habitat is possibly not a major 

concern either. In a small number of other cases, mostly 

with indicators grouped within criteria 4 and 5, we could 

not tell whether they applied to social, economic or legal 

sustainability of rangelands in Patagonia, and therefore 

excluded them from the list.

Our catalog of 53 relevant indicators was severely reduced when actual monitoring feasibility was considered 

(table 1). Available data or models could only assess 26 

of the 53 relevant indicators for sustainable rangeland 

management proposed by the SRR (table 2). In most 

cases, available data and monitoring capabilities would 

be able to address less than half the indicators classified as potentially relevant. In the case of indicators of 

productive capacity of rangelands (Criterion 3) almost 

all indicators could be readily applied. Most disturbingly, however, indicators to monitor water resources 

of rangelands (Water-based indicators under Criterion 

1) were totally absent from our short list.

Relative lack of quality data and scarcity of validated 

models were the factors that limited the applicability 

of SRR C&I to Patagonian rangelands the most. Plans 

to expand and improve rangeland monitoring data collection are limited and can be expected to have a very 

small impact on our assessment of current conditions. 

Table 1. Relevance of SRR C&I to conditions in Patagonia.

Indicators that can Indicators that can

Indicators important be monitored with be reported Indicators that will

Number of to conditions in existing data and adequately over be monitored

Criteria indicators Patagonia models time in the future

- - - - - - - - - - - Soil – based indicators- - - - - - - - - - -

1. Conservation and 5 52 2 2

maintenance of soil 

and water resources - - - - - - - - - - -Water-based indicators- - - - - - - - - - -

of rangelands 5 5 0 0 1

2. Conservation and 10 8 4 2

maintenance of plant

and animal resources

on rangelands

3. Maintenance of 6 6 4 4

productive capacity

on rangelands

4. Maintenance and 28 20 12 12

enhancement of

multiple economic and

social benefits to

current and future

generations

5. Legal, institutional, 10 9 4 4

and economic framework for rangeland 

conservation and 

sustainable management

Totals 64 53 26 24 3
72 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Our assessment exercise may be indicative of the kinds 

of challenges associated with applying the SRR C&I to 

rangelands in developing countries. Application of rangeland monitoring assessments in developing countries 

following the framework proposed by SRR may require a 

shorter bare-bone list of essential criteria and indicators. 

Our short list of indicators (table 2) could possibly serve 

as a starting point in that direction. The development of 

a condensed list of essential indicators could serve as 

a guide to help land managers and local enforcement 

authorities in developing countries prioritize the use of 

scarce funds allocated to monitoring efforts.

There are a few additional indicators not considered 

in the SRR C&I that would be pertinent and feasible in 

Patagonia:

Wind is the most widespread erosion and degradation 

agent on grazed rangelands of Patagonia. Because 

soils are predominantly coarse-textured, some studies 

suggest that the loss of fine particles (lime) and the 

increase in heavier particles that cannot be transported 

by wind (sand) is a good indicator of ongoing erosion 

processes (Oliva and others 2000). A simple topsoil 

texture test would allow fairly straightforward monitoring of early degradation processes.

1.

Overgrazing can modify structural patterns of the 

vegetation, subdividing sink areas that are associated 

with shrubs (in the order of 1-2 meters diameter), 

and hummocks associated with tussocks (10-30 cm 

in diameter). These processes are difficult to monitor, although some initial efforts are underway using 

vertical photography or Camfield lines. Monitoring 

of vegetation structural patterns may prove to be important to evaluate ecosystem integrity and the risk of 

unfavorable transitions.

From the social point of view the proportion of 

abandoned ranches, could be a good indicator of the 

sustainability of the ranching industry.

Conclusions

Most of the C&I for sustainable rangeland management proposed by the SRR are relevant to conditions 

in Patagonia (Argentina). Less than half the indicators 

are applicable, however, due to the relative paucity of 

data and validated models. This exercise suggested that 

a shorter list of essential indicators might be necessary 

to realistically conduct regional long-term assessments 

2.

3.

Table 2. List of relevant indicators that could be monitored in Patagonia.

Criteria Indicators

1. Conservation and Maintenance of Soil Soil –based Indicators:

and Water Resources of Rangelands 4. Area and percent of rangeland with significant change in extent of bare ground

 5. Area and percent of rangeland with accelerated soil erosion by water or wind

2. Conservation and Maintenance of 12. Rangeland area by plant community (*)

Plant and Animal Resources on 15. Density of roads and human structures

Rangelands 17. Extent and condition of riparian systems (*)

18. Area of infestation and presence/absence of invasive and other nonnative 

plant species of concern (*)

3. Maintenance of Productive Capacity 21. Rangeland aboveground biomass

on Rangelands 22. Rangeland annual productivity

23. Percent available rangeland grazed by livestock

24. Number of domestic livestock on rangeland

4. Maintenance and Enhancement of 29. Number of visitor days by activity and recreational land class

Multiple Economic and Social Benefits to 32. Rate of return on investment for range livestock enterprises

Current and Future Generations 36. Poverty rate (general)

37. Poverty rate (children)

38. Income inequality

41. Federal transfers by categories (individual, infrastructure, agriculture, etc.)

45. Agriculture (ranch/farm) structure

46. Years of education

47. Value produced by agriculture and recreation as a percent of total

48. Employment, unemployment, underemployment, and discouraged workers by 

 industrial sector

49. Land tenure, land use, and ownership patterns by size classes

 50. Population pyramid and population change

5. Legal, Institutional, and Economic 56. Institutions and Organizations

Framework for Rangeland Conservation 59. Professional Education and Technical Assistance.

and Sustainable Management 63. Measuring and Monitoring.

64. Research and Development.

(*) Not all plant communities can be monitored through time with current available technology.

(**) Invasive nonnative plant species are only important locally in certain areas of Patagonia.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 73

of overall sustainability of rangeland ecosystems in 

developing countries.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 75

The Middle Rio Grande: A 

Case Study

The Middle Rio Grande (MRG) passes through semiarid and arid landscapes as it descends from Otowi to 

Elephant Butte, New Mexico (fig. 1). With average 

annual precipitation declining over these 372 km, most 

of the water resources available to riparian vegetation 

is supplied from upstream through the shallow alluvial 

aquifer that surrounds the Rio Grande. Historically, the 

MRG floodplain hosted small Rio Grande cottonwood 

(Populus deltoides ssp. wislizennii) copses, riverbank 

cottonwood and Goodding willow (Salix gooddingii) 

individuals, riverbank coyote willow (S. exigua) thickets, 

and wide expanses of grasses such as saltgrass (Distichlis 

spicata) (Scurlock 1998). These riparian areas have 

become dense with native and non-native vegetation, 

where monospecific and mixed xeroriparian saltcedar 

(Tamarix chinensis) thickets dominate the bosque 

to the south of the Rio Puerco confluence and dense 

cottonwood, saltcedar, and Russian olive (Elaeagnus 

angustifolia) forests dominate in the northern MRG. In 

either case, this dense vegetation presents a fire hazard 

and is potentially responsible for a great deal of water 

loss to the atmosphere.

The Rio Grande Compact dictates how much water 

may be legally lost between official river discharge 

gauges. In the MRG, the upstream and downstream 

gauges of record were changed to Otowi and Elephant 

Groundwater, Vegetation, and Atmosphere: Comparative 

Riparian Evapotranspiration, Restoration, and Water 

Salvage

J. R. Cleverly, Research Assistant Professor of Biology, Department of Biology, University of 

New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM

C. N Dahm, Professor of Biology, J. R. Thibault, Riparian Ecologist, and D. McDonnell, 

Graduate Student, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico

J. E. Allred Coonrod, Associate Professor of Civil Engineering, Department of Civil 

Engineering, University of New Mexico

Abstract—As water shortages persist throughout the Western U.S., a great deal of money 

and effort is directed toward decreasing riparian water loss, thereby enabling continued 

water use by irrigators, industry, and municipalities. This study focuses upon long-term 

measurement of evapotranspiration (ET) by native and non-native riparian species along 

the Middle Rio Grande (MRG) in New Mexico where riparian ET has been estimated to 

be 20 to 50 percent of water budget depletions. Leaf area index (LAI) was most strongly 

related to average ET rates, irrespective of species composition. Decreased LAI caused 

by crown dieback in native cottonwood was found at sites where the drought has also 

resulted in groundwater decline. Saltcedar ET, on the other hand, increased from 6 to 

9 mm/day during groundwater declines of up to 7.5 cm/day. Atmospheric conditions 

that influence ET rates include vapor pressure deficit, net radiation, precipitation, friction 

coefficient, and the relative contribution of winds that are tangential and transverse to 

the riparian corridor. Some of these conditions interact to affect ET rates. For example, 

precipitation events are associated with lower net radiation, vapor pressure deficit, and 

ET. Potential water salvage following removal of non-native vegetation was predicted by 

comparing ET and LAI rates in various vegetation types. Lowest LAI and ET are found 

in a saltcedar/saltgrass non-overlapping mixed stand. In contrast, a dense monospecific 

saltcedar stand frequently consumes up to 11.5 mm/day, especially when flooded. 

ET from other vegetation types along the Middle Rio Grande seldom spikes so high. 

Conversion from dense monospecific saltcedar to sparse saltcedar/saltgrass woodland 

is predicted to save 0.2 m per year, based upon both ET and LAI changes in such a 

conversion. Previous studies of water salvage place this value between positive or negative, for unsuccessful removal of saltcedar may result in increased ET.
76 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Butte in 1948 (fig. 1). Between these two points, 

various economic interests compete with riparian ET for 

the limited water budget depletions that are allowed. If 

phreatophytic vegetation, which draws water directly 

from the shallow alluvial aquifer surrounding the MRG, 

transpires an excessive amount of water into the atmosphere, fewer diversions from the river are allowed for 

agricultural, municipal, and industrial uses. A water 

budget is often constructed to provide the best accounting 

of water sources and demands, but the utility of water 

budgets is constrained by incomplete knowledge of key 

components in the water budget (Cleverly and others 

2002, Dahm and others 2002).

Better understanding of riparian corridor ET is 

crucially important for managing water resources and 

predicting water availability. Open water and riparian 

water loss to the atmosphere is believed to be the greatest 

single depletion of water from the MRG, ranging between 

Figure 1. Map showing significant features and location of eddy covariance towers in the Middle Rio Grande evapotranspiration 

case study.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 77

30 and 75 percent of the total inflow at Otowi (Cleverly 

and others 2002). Discounting reservoir evaporation, 

water losses from the riparian corridor is thought to be 

between 20 and 50 percent of the total inflow at Otowi 

(Dahm and others 2002). However, these evaporation and 

evapotranspiration rates are theoretical in nature, while 

direct measurements have recently contributed a great 

deal to ensuring that the most accurate ET estimates are 

obtained (Goodrich and others 2000).

When considering the large volumes of water potentially escaping the riparian corridor, as well as our 

uncertainty regarding the accuracy of this estimated 

ET, a central question regarding our ability to manage 

riparian ET has arisen. Specifically, managers wish to 

know whether certain vegetation can be removed from 

the ecosystem to decrease depletions. In particular, can 

non-native species be removed to both improve habitat 

for endangered species as well as reduce ecosystem ET. 

The culprit in the southwestern United States is saltcedar (Tamarix spp.), a plant from Eurasia that has been 

accused of extravagant, and often unrealistic, ET rates. 

However, a great deal of controversy remains surrounding the issue of saltcedar ET: whether ET is greater than 

that for native vegetation such as dense cottonwood forests, and whether gains in gauged stream flow will result 

from removal of saltcedar (Weeks and others 1987).

The MRG provides a background for addressing 

these issues and improving our ability to predict riparian 

ET, where we have been using state-of-the-art three-dimensional eddy covariance (3SEC) systems arrayed at 

various locations along the MRG to elucidate the roles 

of vegetation, hydrology, and atmospheric conditions in 

controlling riparian ET.

Riparian Evapotranspiration

Riparian evapotranspiration is the process by which 

open water and soil water is translocated to the atmosphere 

as vapor. Interactions between groundwater, vegetation, 

and atmospheric conditions can either restrict or enhance 

actual ET, depending upon the conditions themselves. As 

the term evapotranspiration implies, evaporation from 

open water or soil and transpiration from vegetation are 

combined into a single water loss term. This composite 

flux is measured directly using the 3SEC system, which 

is considered to be the standard by which wetland ET is 

evaluated (Drexler and others 2004).

The vegetation along the MRG is phreatophytic, 

meaning that its roots are connected directly to the capillary fringe of the water table (Smith and others 1998). 

Some of these plants are facultative phreatophytes, meaning that they may obtain water from both the capillary 

fringe and the vadose zone. Examples of such plants are 

saltcedar and mesquite (Prosopis spp.), both of which are 

able to maintain function soil water potentials intermediate between obligate riparian species and upland species 

(Busch and others 1992, Pockman and Sperry 2000). 

Conversely, cottonwood is extremely vulnerable to soil 

drying, allowing partial crown dieback under water table 

drawdown (Cooper and others 2003, Rood and others 

2003). In one instance, among a population of young cottonwood along a drying ephemeral reach, has cottonwood 

shown any proclivity toward use of soil water in addition 

to groundwater (Snyder and Williams 2000).

Variability in annual ET rates along the MRG is very 

high (fig. 2). Before the current drought, ET rates were 

highest from cottonwood forests with a thick saltcedar 

understory—1.35 m/yr (4.4 acre-ft/acre-yr)—and from 

dense saltcedar stands—1.2 m/yr (3.4 acre-ft/acreyr). As the drought developed, ET rates fell to below 

0.7 m/yr (2.2 acre-ft/acre-yr) at the saltcedar/saltgrass 

site. Seemingly, cottonwood forests are unaffected by 

drought--maintaining ET rates up to 1.3 m/yr (4.2 acreft/acre-yr). However, groundwater levels have remained 

shallow at these sites due to Albuquerque wastewater 

amendments and irrigation delivery structures.

Groundwater

Transpiration by cottonwood is uninhibited by groundwater accessibility whenever the water table is within 

three meters of the surface (Horton and others 2001). 

When groundwater is drawn down deeper, transpiration 

declines with increasing crown dieback (Scott and others 1999, Rood and others 2000). Goodding willow is 

found in habitats similar to those where cottonwood is 

more likely to be located, preferentially occupying sites 

with shallow water table, high soil water content, and 

Figure 2. Annual ET from each of the sites illustrated in figure 

1 over the years 2000 through 2003.
78 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

low salinity (Busch and Smith 1995). Conversely, coyote 

willow can tolerate dryer conditions, much like saltcedar 

or mesquite (Busch and Smith 1995). The hydrologic 

conditions under which these species are found have 

implications for predicting how willows might respond 

to groundwater decline, in which Goodding willow ET 

is expected respond to groundwater depth as does cottonwood, while ET from coyote willow is expected to 

respond more like saltcedar.

Saltcedar transpiration is not restricted by depth to 

groundwater as it is in cottonwood. In Arizona, saltcedar 

was unaffected by groundwater depths of up to 10 meters 

(Horton and others 2001). In China, from where one 

common species of non-native saltcedar originates, transpiration was found to remain unchanged, even when the 

water table was dropped to 25 meters below the surface 

(Gries and others 2003). Even though saltcedar ET is not 

dependent upon depth to the water table, saltcedar ET 

does respond to changes in water table depth, increasing 

while the groundwater is falling (fig. 3).

Figure 3 illustrates the mutual effects of drought resistant xylem (Pockman and Sperry 2000), facultative 

phreatophytic habits (Busch and others 1992), and a 

combination of drought tolerance and spendthrift stomatal 

conductance depending upon the conditions (Cleverly and 

others 1997). Hysteresis is generated in this relationship 

between groundwater changes and saltcedar ET due to 

the time lag between groundwater decline and soil water 

desaturation, during which time tap root elongation is 

negligible. Increased ET rates in association with sustained groundwater decline occur because active roots 

left behind by the elongating taproot continue to exploit 

soil water resources left behind by the retreating groundwater (fig. 3).

Vegetation

A very general relationship between average ET and 

leaf area index (LAI) along the MRG was observed in 

2000 (Dahm and others 2002). LAI is a measure of the 

leaf surface above a unit area of ground. Along the MRG, 

LAI ranges from 1.7 ± 0.1 in a saltcedar/saltgrass mosaic 

to 3.7 ± 0.1 at a dense saltcedar site. Monthly ET-LAI 

observations during 2001 through 2003 illustrate that this 

relationship is curvilinear—ET increases rapidly with 

increases at low LAI, and ET and comes to a plateau 

near LAI values of three and above. This upper plateau 

indicates the limiting effect of self-shading; in which 

upper canopy leaves completely shade lower leaves and 

sub-canopy layers. Deep shading of lower canopy layers 

severely restricts the energy available to evaporate water 

from within the leaf.

 Remote sensing technology that can discriminate LAI 

above three holds the best promise for deriving basinwide scaled ET estimates. One metric that matches LAI 

closely when LAI is less than three is the normalized 

difference vegetation index (NDVI), computed as

NDVI = NIR − Rd

Rd + NIR

 ,

where Rd and NIR are pixel reflectance of red and near 

infrared light, respectively (Pearcy and others 1991). The 

utility of NDVI declines rapidly when LAI is greater than 

three because absorbance of red light by chlorophyll is 

complete in the upper few leaf layers. Middle-frequency 

infrared (MIR), like NIR, is not as effectively absorbed 

by chlorophyll. ET, LAI, and species composition maps 

were developed using spectral fingerprints for forests of 

varying species composition along the MRG. From this 

analysis, the leaf area transpiration index (LATI) was 

developed (LATI-ET r2 = 0.93).

Ground reconnaissance of LATI method was performed by collection of LAI and groundwater chemistry 

data at multiple sites along the MRG. High concentrations of chloride in groundwater result in higher LAI 

Figure 3. Daily average ET during a period of extended 

groundwater decline indicated by negative changes in the 

water table depth. ET does not initially increase, showing 

a lag between decline of the water table and dewatering of 

the capillary fringe (1). As roots are taking up water at the 

deepened capillary fringe and the vadose zone, ET increases 

(2), until the upper layers are emptied and saltcedar returns 

to predominately groundwater sources (3).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 79

and ET from saltcedar-dominated sites, but 

high groundwater chloride levels at cottonwood-dominated sites resulted in reduced 

LAI and ET. Saltcedar ET is not strongly 

affected by nitrate or ammonium concentrations in the groundwater, but cottonwood ET 

is enhanced by high concentrations of these 

nitrogen-containing nutrients. At one cottonwood site downstream from the Albuquerque 

wastewater treatment plant (fig. 1), LAI, ET, 

and groundwater concentrations of nitrate and 

ammonium are all high.

Atmosphere

An analysis of ET anomalies was performed at each 

site to determine those conditions that were greater or 

lesser than average ET (Mo and Juang 2003). Stepwise 

general linear regression can then be used to analyze the 

role of micrometeorological conditions on large, multiseasonal datasets (n ~ 20 per year). While time series 

data contains observations that are neither independent 

nor identically distributed (i.i.d.), computed anomalies 

are statistically derived observations that do not violate 

the i.i.d. assumptions of general linear regression.

Topography was most directly related to differences 

in ET covariances. For example, the northern two sites 

illustrated in figure 1 show ET spikes and dips in response to heat stress effects due to heat transfer from the 

nearby mesa (table 1). Boundary layer stability typically 

results from such mesoscale conditions, and ET declines 

in response to such lateral winds because these winds 

expose stress intolerant cottonwoods to higher vapor 

pressure deficit (VPD). As VPD increases, stresses upon 

tissue water increases due to the enhance vapor gradient 

between the leaf’s interior and the surrounding air.

The southern sites are located near large mountains 

that are associated with greater cold air drainage. Warmer 

daytime temperatures are moderated by cooler nighttime 

temperatures in this area, and ET anomalies are related to 

local turbulence, VPD, and the range of diel temperature 

extremes (table 1) (Cooper and others 2003). It is at these 

sites where precipitation events lead to a sharp decline 

in ET. On days with measurable precipitation, (1) net 

radiation dips due to cloud-shading, (2) daytime high 

temperature dips, (3) atmospheric humidity increases, (4) 

vapor pressure deficit dips due to two and three, and (5) 

turbulence is high due to the convective nature of typical 

monsoon storms that develop of mountain ranges.

Additional cold air drainage at the southern sites 

serves to shorten the growing season, further restricting annual ET. The final hard freeze in the spring at the 

Table 1. Results from stepwise multiple regression between ET anomalies and 

micrometeorological conditions.

Dominant vegetation Variablesa

Saltcedar q*, u*, VPD, Temperature, Precipitation

Cottonwood H, Rn

, v, v X u a

q*: Surface scale for vapor flux

u*: Friction velocity

H: Sensible heat flux

Rn: Net radiation

v: Wind speed tangential to the riparian corridor

u: Wind speed along the riparian corridor

southern site is about one week later than at the northern site. 

Likewise, the first autumnal freeze in the south precedes 

senescence in the north by one week. Comparison of 

ET from these cottonwood and saltcedar sites can be 

achieved by considering differences in season length—

cottonwoods in the south would experience similar 

shortening of the growing season and saltcedars in the 

north leaf-out and senesce earlier than in the south.

Considering all of these conditions that reduce annual ET from the saltcedar stands along the MRG, it is 

surprising that dense saltcedar has had peak water use 

exceeding 10 mm/day on 17 days from between 2000 

through 2004. Although water use by saltcedar stands 

may be limited for much of the year, the vegetation itself 

is able to maintain extremely high ET rates for short 

periods when VPD is high, surface flooding is occurring 

in which floodwaters are perched above a clay lens, or 

the water table is rapidly declining.

Potential Water Salvage

The potential to save water by manipulating vegetation characteristics is dependent upon changes in leaf 

area index that are achieved by a given restoration 

project. If saltcedars are thinned, in combination with 

replacement by saltgrass, sacaton grass, or rabbitbrush 

(Chrysothamnus nauseosus), LAI and ET will be potentially decreased by up to 0.2 m/yr (0.7 acre-ft/acre-yr) 

(fig. 2). The reverse is also true—LAI and ET would 

increase if a low LAI saltcedar site were converted to 

a dense cottonwood site by cottonwood pole planting 

in high density. Increases in water use would also be 

observed in those all-too-common restoration attempts 

that do not successfully kill saltcedar, allowing the 

vegetation to resprout in greater density than before the 

restoration attempt. In any case, coordinated restoration 

efforts that successfully achieve historical grassland/cottonwood/willow mosaics would reduce ET rates while 

maintaining habitat resources for species that are now 

endangered.
80 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

References

Busch, D. E.; Ingraham, N. L.; Smith, S. D. 1992. Water Uptake 

in Woody Riparian Phreatophytes of the Southwestern 

United States: A Stable Isotope Study. Ecological 

Applications 2(4): 450-459.

Busch, D. E.; Smith, S. D. 1995. Mechanisms Associated 

with Decline of Woody Species in Riparian Ecosystems 

of the Southwestern U.S. Ecological Monographs 65(3): 

347-370.

Cleverly, J. R.; Dahm, C. N.; Thibault, J. R.; Gilroy, D. J.; 

Coonrod, J. E. A. 2002. Seasonal Estimates of Actual 

Evapo-Transpiration from Tamarix Ramosissima Stands 

Using Three-Dimensional Eddy Covariance. Journal of 

Arid Environments 52(2): 181-197.

Cleverly, J. R.; Smith, S. D.; Sala, A.; Devitt, D. A. 1997. 

Invasive Capacity of Tamarix Ramosissima in a Mojave 

Desert Floodplain: The Role of Drought. Oecologia 111: 

12-18.

Cooper, D.; D’amico, D.; Scott, M. 2003. Physiological and 

Morphological Response Patterns of Populus Deltoides 

to Alluvial Groundwater Pumping. Environmental 

Management. 175 Fifth Ave, New York, NY 10010 USA: 

Springer-Verlag. 31: 215-226.

Cooper, D.; Eichinger, W.; Archuleta, J.; Hipps, L.; Kao, J.; 

Leclerc, M.; Neale, C.; Prueger, J. 2003. Spatial SourceArea Analysis of Three-Dimensional Moisture Fields 

from Lidar, Eddy Covariance, and a Footprint Model. 

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 114(3-4): 213-234.

Dahm, C. N.; Cleverly, J. R.; Coonrod, J. E. A.; Thibault, J. R.; 

Mcdonnell, D. E.; Gilroy, D. F. 2002. Evapotranspiration at 

the Land/Water Interface in a Semi-Arid Drainage Basin. 

Freshwater Biology 47(4): 831-843.

Drexler, J. Z.; Snyder, R. L.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T. 2004. 

A Review of Models and Micrometeorological Methods 

Used to Estimate Wetland Evapotranspiration. Hydological 

Processes 18: 2071-2101.

Goodrich, D. C.; Scott, R.; Qi, J.; Goff, B.; Unkrich, C. 

L.; Moran, M. S.; Williams, D.; Schaeffer, S.; Snyder, 

K.; Macnish, R.; Maddock, T.; Pool, D.; Chehbouni, 

A.; Cooper, D. I.; Eichinger, W. E.; Shuttleworth, W. J.; 

Kerr, Y.; Marsett, R.; Ni, W. 2000. Seasonal Estimates of 

Riparian Evapotranspiration Using Remote and in Situ 

Measurements. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 

105(1-3): 281-309.

Gries, D.; Zeng, F.; Foetzki, A.; Arndt, S.; Bruelheide, H.; 

Thomas, F.; Zhang, X.; Runge, M. 2003. Growth and Water 

Relations of Tamarix Ramosissima and Populus Euphratica 

on Taklamakan Desert Dunes in Relation to Depth to a 

Permanent Water Table. Plant Cell and Environment 26(5): 

725-736.

Horton, J. L.; Kolb, T. E.; Hart, S. C. 2001. Physiological 

Response to Groundwater Depth Varies among Species 

and with River Flow Regulation. Ecological Applications 

11(4): 1046-1059.

Mo, K. C.; Juang, H. M. H. 2003. Relationships between Soil 

Moisture and Summer Precipitation over the Great Plains 

and the Southwest. Journal of Geophysical ResearchAtmospheres 108(D19): 8610.

Pearcy, R. W.; Ehleringer, J.; Mooney, H. A.; Rundel, P. W., 

Eds. 1991. Plant Physiological Ecology. New York, NY: 

Chapman and Hall. 432 p.

Pockman, W.; Sperry, J. 2000. Vulnerability to Xylem 

Cavitation and the Distribution of Sonoran Desert 

Vegetation. American Journal of Botany 87(9): 1287-

1299.

Rood, S.; Braatne, J.; Hughes, F. 2003. Ecophysiology of 

Riparian Cottonwoods: Stream Flow Dependency, Water 

Relations and Restoration. Tree Physiology 23(16): 1113-

1124.

Rood, S.; Patino, S.; Coombs, K.; Tyree, M. 2000. Branch 

Sacrifice: Cavitation-Associated Drought Adaptation of 

Riparian Cottonwoods. Trees-structure and function 14(5): 

248-257.

Scott, M. L.; Shafroth, P. B.; Auble, G. T. 1999. Responses of 

Riparian Cottonwoods to Alluvial Water Table Declines. 

Environmental Management 23(3): 347-358.

Scurlock, D. 1998. From the Rio to the Sierra: An Environmental 

History of the Middle Rio Grande Basin. Fort Collins, 

CO: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research 

Station.

Smith, S. D.; Devitt, D. A.; Sala, A.; Cleverly, J. R.; Busch, 

D. E. 1998. Water Relations of Riparian Plants from Warm 

Desert Regions. Wetlands 18: 687-696.

Snyder, K.; Williams, D. 2000. Water Sources Used by 

Riparian Trees Varies among Stream Types on the San 

Pedro River, Arizona. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 

105(1-3): 227-240.

Weeks, E. P.; Weaver, H. L.; Campbell, G. S.; Tanner, B. 

D. 1987. Water Use by Saltcedar and by Replacement 

Vegetation in the Pecos River Floodplain between Acme 

and Artesia, New Mexico. Washington: U.S. Geological 

Survey.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 81

Introduction

Public lands that have been officially designated as 

wilderness have many different values (McCloskey 1990, 

Noss 1991). Some of these values are readily apparent 

and easy to describe; others are not. The most commonly recognized wilderness values are ecological and 

experiential values. Wildernesses have ecological value 

because, at least ideally, they preserve lands in a natural 

condition and allow for the free play of natural processes. 

They provide refuge for plants and animals, are source 

areas for clean water and are available as reference areas 

for science. The experiential values of wilderness stem 

from their availability for appropriate recreational use. 

Although different people seek and find diverse experiences in wilderness, wilderness offers some of the most 

outstanding opportunities for experiencing solitude 

and a sense of freedom and spontaneity within large 

natural environments. For many, wilderness provides 

therapeutic, educational, and spiritual values (Hendee 

and Dawson 2002).

A third set of wilderness values might be termed the 

symbolic values of wilderness. These values are more 

difficult to articulate and are less readily apparent than the 

ecological and experiential values of wilderness, but they 

are perhaps the values most unique to wilderness. These 

are the values most frequently articulated in the language 

of those most influential in passing the Wilderness Act 

(Zahniser 1956-57). Perhaps the most important symbolic 

value of wilderness is wilderness as a symbol of restraint 

and humility. This value is well-captured in the definition of wilderness, contained in the Wilderness Act, as 

“an area where the earth and its community of life are 

untrammeled by man.” “Untrammeled” is simultaneously 

the most important and the most misunderstood word 

in the Wilderness Act. “Synonymous with unconfined, 

unfettered and unrestrained,” untrammeled suggests 

“freedom from human control rather than lack of human 

influence” (Cole 2000, p. 78). Much of the symbolic 

value of wilderness derives from its being land that humans do not mold to their purposes. Wilderness is a place 

that humans should not intentionally manipulate for any 

reason—even to enhance the ecological or experiential 

values of wilderness.

Although wilderness lands have additional values 

(such as economic benefits), it is largely the ecological, experiential and symbolic values that constitute 

the wilderness character of these lands and the primary 

legislative mandate for wilderness managers is to protect 

the wilderness character of the lands they steward. Where 

these values are threatened, wilderness managers must act 

to protect them. An important element of any protection 

program is the identification of threats and the monitoring 

of impacts to wilderness values. Therefore, in order to 

protect the wilderness character of the individual wilderness areas that they steward, managers need monitoring 

Monitoring to Protect the Character of Individual 

Wildernesses

David N. Cole, Research Biologist, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Missoula, MT

Abstract—A primary goal of wilderness stewardship is to protect individual wilderness 

areas from most anthropogenic change. Numerous agents of change threaten to degrade 

wilderness character. These agents of change are both internal (for example, grazing) 

and external (for example, polluting industries) to wilderness. They can be activities 

(for example, recreation use) or the indirect effects of activities (for example, invasion 

of exotic species), and can also be management actions (for example, fire suppression). 

Wilderness managers need information about both these agents of change (or threats) 

and the attributes of wilderness character that they threaten. They need monitoring data 

about (1) the magnitude of threats and (2) changes in wilderness attributes caused 

by these threats (impacts), in order to be in a better position to protect the wilderness 

character of the areas that they steward. This paper uses a matrix approach to provide 

a comprehensive overview of wilderness protection monitoring. It describes the current state-of-the-art. It identifies substantial knowledge and technological gaps, as well 

as research needs.
82 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

programs related to ecological, experiential and symbolic 

values. This paper provides an overview of the breadth of 

monitoring needed to adequately protect the wilderness 

character of individual wildernesses. It also reviews the 

types of wilderness monitoring that are best developed 

and suggests priorities for further work.

Protecting the Ecological 

and Experiential Values of 

Wilderness

There are numerous threats to the ecological and experiential values of wilderness. These threats are both 

internal and external to wilderness. They include human activities, the indirect effects of activities and also 

management actions. Managers must be concerned about 

the impacts that potential threats have on attributes of 

wilderness character.

The Threats Matrix

Figure 1 shows a conceptual model of the most significant threats to and attributes of wilderness that can 

be applied to wilderness protection (Cole 1994). As the 

numerous lines radiating from each individual threat 

suggest, any single threat will impact many different 

wilderness attributes and values. Therefore, the impacts 

of any single threat will differ depending on the attributes 

the threat impacts. For example, the effects of fire suppression on vegetation are very different from the effects 

of fire suppression on wilderness experiences. Similarly, 

the effects of different threats on a single attribute are 

highly variable. The implication of this is that managers 

need to understand the linkages between each significant 

potential threat and each individual wilderness attribute. 

If this was not challenging enough, these potential threats 

and impacts interact synergistically. Therefore, managers need to also understand the cumulative impacts of 

multiple threats. Separating individual attributes is even 

more artificial than separating threats because impacts 

occur at all temporal and spatial scales.

Despite the artificiality of separating individual threats 

and wilderness attributes, the matrix that results by 

combining threats and attributes is a convenient way to 

depict the breadth of topics that might be included in a 

wilderness monitoring program (fig. 2). In this matrix, 

threats form columns and attributes form rows. Each cell 

consists of the various impacts that each threat causes 

to each attribute. Figure 2 includes most of the common 

wilderness threats. While this matrix was developed for 

a generic wilderness, individual wilderness units might 

adapt it to their specific needs by either adding additional 

threats or attributes or by deleting ones that are not relevant to their situation.

Monitoring Threats and Impacts

These threats and impacts vary in terms of their significance, our knowledge about them and the availability 

of monitoring protocols and programs. Most monitoring 

programs aim to assess either the threat or changes in 

wilderness attributes; a few assess impacts directly. Cole 

and Landres (1996) review knowledge about the most 

common threats and impacts to wilderness ecosystems. 

Hendee and Dawson (2002) provide a good overview of 

concerns related to wilderness experiences.

Most attention within wilderness has been devoted 

to understanding, monitoring and mitigating the threat 

posed by recreation use and the impacts that it causes. 

Nevertheless, surprisingly few wilderness areas have 

reliable estimates of the amount of recreational visitation 

they receive. The most reliable data are for overnight 

visitors to wildernesses managed by the National Park 

Service, because permits are usually required for overnight stays in those areas.

Monitoring data on campsite conditions (impacts of 

camping on soil and vegetation) are also relatively common. As of 2000, about one-half of the 628 wildernesses 

in the United States had some type of baseline data on 

campsite conditions (Cole and Wright 2003). However, 

only about one-third had data on campsites for the entire 

wilderness.

Figure 1. Linkages between important potential threats and 

the wilderness attributes they impact.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 83

There are several explanations for the prevalence 

of campsite monitoring programs in wilderness. First, 

campsite impacts are among the more obvious adverse 

effects of recreation use and represent problems that wilderness managers spend considerable time and resources 

trying to “fix.” Second, campsite impacts provide one of 

the few situations where it is possible to directly assess 

and monitor the impact of concern. The impacts of camping on vegetation and soil are intensive, stationary and 

highly localized. This makes it possible—by comparing 

campsite conditions to adjacent undisturbed controls—to 

quite precisely measure the effects of camping. For most 

other impacts, including the effects of recreation on 

animals or on visitor experiences, this cannot be done. 

For these threat-attribute combinations, inferences about 

impacts must be drawn from data on the threat and the 

attribute. For example, we can count visitors and we can 

monitor wildlife populations, but we generally cannot 

measure wildlife impacts directly. We can attempt to attribute changes in wildlife populations to visitation but 

this is often highly speculative.

Beyond recreation, assessment of atmospheric pollutants in individual wildernesses is perhaps the best 

developed monitoring program. This program emphasis 

is clearly the result of legislative mandates imposed by 

the Clean Air Act of 1970. Federal land managers are 

responsible for protecting air quality-related values 

in parks and wilderness from air pollution damage or 

impairment. Monitoring efforts are focused primarily 

on the wilderness attribute (air), rather than the threat 

(source of pollution) or impact. Some of the most common attributes being measured include visibility (which 

is reduced by fine particles), ozone, and deposition of 

sulphur and nitrogen compounds (Tonnessen 2000). 

However, because there is substantial consensus about 

what air quality should be like under “natural” conditions 

and because substantial research has been conducted 

on the adverse effects of pollutants on flora, fauna and 

aquatic systems, these data can be used to estimate the 

impacts of atmospheric pollutants.

Increased awareness of problems resulting from the 

introduction of nonnative species has led to improved 

monitoring efforts recently. Most often these efforts are 

confined to plants deemed to be “noxious.” Programs 

to monitor the effects of livestock grazing also exist. 

Monitoring range conditions is probably more common 

where the grazers are cattle or sheep than where the 

grazers are recreational pack stock.

The impacts associated with fire and how fire is 

managed are probably the least adequately monitored 

but among the most significant impacts to wilderness 

character. For these, not only is it impossible to directly 

Figure 2. The threats matrix in which cells represent the impacts that each potential threat has on each 

attribute of wilderness character.
84 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

monitor impacts, it is also impossible to monitor the 

threat very precisely. The threat is not fire itself; nor is 

it the suppression of fire. The magnitude of threat is the 

degree to which the fire regime differs from a “natural” 

fire regime, something that cannot be estimated very 

precisely given climate change, definitional problems 

related to appropriate spatial and temporal scales, and 

unresolved issues such as the past role and influence of 

native Americans. Most often, vegetation structure and 

composition are assessed, from which inferences about 

impacts of fire management are drawn.

Protecting the Symbolic 

Values of Wilderness

Less attention has been given to articulating threats 

to the symbolic values of wilderness and how impacts 

to such values might be monitored. For the values of 

humility and restraint, as suggested by the concept of 

“untrammeled” wilderness, the primary threats are intentional manipulations of wilderness ecosystems and 

other ecological attributes. Manipulations of wilderness 

ecosystems can be intentional or unintentional. They 

can be undertaken with the intent of altering conditions 

within wilderness or they can be the consequence of 

an attempt to control conditions outside of wilderness. 

Manipulations can be undertaken to enhance other 

wilderness values (most commonly naturalness) or not. 

The symbolic values of restraint, humility and untrammeled wilderness are most compromised by intentional 

manipulations undertaken to alter conditions within 

wilderness.

I know of no attempts to monitor threats to or loss of 

the symbolic values of wilderness. However, in the effort 

to develop a national assessment of trends in wilderness 

character (see Landres in this proceedings), protocols 

are being developed that might prove useful in individual wildernesses as well. The general approach being 

advocated is simply to report the prevalence of actions 

designed to manipulate the biophysical environment. 

These might include anything from igniting prescribed 

fires to planting fish to placing radio collars on wolves. 

The more manipulative actions that are taken, the more 

symbolic values are at risk.

Priorities for Improving 

Wilderness Monitoring

When it comes to monitoring to protect the values 

of individual wildernesses, the needs are huge and 

current efforts are meager to non-existent. The paucity of 

resources available for wilderness stewardship generally 

and monitoring specifically probably reflects a belief that 

the job of wilderness is a simple one. Conversely, I have 

argued that there is no other responsibility given to land 

managers that is more difficult to do well than wilderness stewardship (Cole 1990). Given the likelihood that 

available resources will continue to be scarce, careful 

consideration of monitoring priorities is critical.

Opinions regarding monitoring priorities are diverse, 

depending to a great degree on one’s value system. For 

many (certainly most ecologists), the ecological values of 

wilderness are considered most significant, leading them 

to assert that priority should be given to the most pervasive ecological impacts in wilderness. Others, however, 

may consider experiential or symbolic values to be most 

significant, leading them to different conclusions about 

the most important attributes to monitor.

Three criteria that might be applied to priority setting 

include: (1) the ability of managers to mitigate impacts, 

(2) the pervasiveness of impacts, and (3) the uniqueness 

of what is threatened. Recreation impacts are probably 

the impacts that managers can most readily control. 

Although intense, many recreation impacts are highly 

localized and recreation use is subject to managerial 

control. Among the most pervasive impacts are likely 

to be those associated with fire and its management, 

atmospheric pollutants and the effects of adjacent lands 

and their management on wilderness. In contrast to 

recreation, the impacts of these threats are not nearly as 

intensive but are much more extensive, sometimes affecting most of the wilderness. From the perspective of 

protecting ecological values, the impacts of these threats 

are likely to be highly significant but difficult to assess 

with much precision. Development of more precise 

methods for assessing and interpreting impacts is a high 

priority research need. Finally, the most unique values at 

risk are likely to be the symbolic values of wilderness. 

No lands other than wilderness are likely to be declared 

off-limits to intentional manipulation out of a sense of 

restraint and humility. In fact, it is unlikely that we will 

even show this restraint in wilderness. Therefore, more 

attention needs to be given to monitoring trends in 

these values. Impacts to rare and endangered plant and 

animal populations also demand high priority, based on 

the criterion of uniqueness. They typically are receiving 

substantial attention.

Conclusions

More personal and financial resources need to be 

devoted to wilderness stewardship if agencies are to 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 85

redeem their responsibility to protect wilderness character. Much of this could be achieved if wilderness received 

the attention that it deserves within land management 

agencies. In the Forest Service, for example, 18 percent 

of lands are designated wilderness. However, the agency 

spends less than 1 percent of its annual budget on wilderness stewardship. In the past, most attention within 

wilderness has been devoted to recreation management. 

Other issues need more attention—not at the expense of 

recreation management, which continues to be underfunded, but as a complement. More attention needs to 

be devoted to understanding and monitoring the effects 

of pervasive threats such as fire and its management 

and the influence of management and development of 

adjacent lands. More attention also needs to be given 

to understanding the symbolic values of wilderness and 

how they might be monitored and protected. Finally, 

every individual wilderness is unique. This means that 

the wilderness character of each wilderness is unique and 

is often better understood holistically than when reduced 

to cells in a matrix. Considerable ingenuity is needed to 

better incorporate holism and uniqueness in our attempts 

to monitor and steward wilderness.

References

Cole, David N. 1990. Wilderness management: has it come 

of age? Journal of Soil and Water Conservation. 45: 

360-364.

Cole, David N. 1994. The wilderness threats matrix: a framework for assessing impacts. Res. Pap. INT-475. Ogden, 

UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Intermountain Research Station. 14 p.

Cole, David N. 2000. Paradox of the primeval: ecological 

restoration in wilderness. Ecological Restoration. 18(2): 

77-86.

Cole, David N.; Landres, Peter B. 1996. Threats to wilderness ecosystems: impacts and research needs. Ecological 

Applications. 6(1): 168-184.

Cole, David N.; Wright, Vita. 2003. Wilderness visitors and 

recreation impacts: baseline data available for twentieth 

century conditions. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-117. 

Ogden, UT: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Rocky Mountain Research Station. 52 p.

Hendee, John C.; Dawson, Chad P. 2002. Wilderness management: stewardship and protection of resources and values, 

3rd ed. Golden, CO: Fulcrum Publishing. 640 p.

McCloskey, Michael. 1990. Evolving perspectives on wilderness values: putting wilderness values in order. In: Reed, 

Patrick C., comp. Preparing to manage wilderness in the 

21st century: proceedings of the conference; 1990 April 4-6; 

Athens, GA. Gen. Tech. Rep. SE-66. Asheville, NC: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southeastern 

Forest Experiment Station: 13-18.

Noss, Reed F. 1991. Sustainability and wilderness. Conservation 

Biology. 5(1): 120-122.

Tonnessen, K.A. 2000. Protecting wilderness air quality in 

the United States. In: Cole, David N., Stephen F. McCool, 

William T. Borrie, and Jennifer O’Loughlin, comps. 

Wilderness science in a time of change conference—Volume 

5: Wilderness ecosystems, threats, and management. USDA 

Forest Service Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-P-15-VOL-5: 

74-96.

Zahniser, Howard. 1956-57. The need for wilderness areas. 

Living Wilderness. 59(Winter-Spring): 37-43.
86 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The importance of river processes such as flood 

pulses, connectivity between the channel and adjacent 

floodplain, and groundwater recharge to the long-term 

viability of river ecosystems has been documented by 

a number of researchers (Ellis and others 2002, Molles 

1998, Crawford and others 1993, Sparks 1995, Auble 

and others 1994). The Save Our Bosque Task Force’s 

(Task Force) Conceptual Restoration Plan for the Rio 

Grande from San Acacia to San Marcial, New Mexico 

(plan), was developed in a five phase process to evaluate the potential to restore river processes and thereby 

increase biological diversity on a 72 kilometer (45 mile) 

reach of Rio Grande in central New Mexico, the Socorro 

valley. The importance of riparian systems in the overall 

biodiversity of the planet, particularly in arid regions has 

also been well-documented (Naiman and others 1993, 

Briggs 1996, Crawford and others 1996). The Task Force 

planning effort is meant to serve as a tool to landowners and management agencies interested in improving 

the health of the Rio Grande ecosystem within current 

constraints.

This valley is a unique blend of small communities, 

agricultural fields, the Rio Grande, and its associated habitats. Economic interests in the valley include 

agriculture, science and research interests, a state university, private businesses, and ecotourism of which 

the Bosque del Apache NWR and Sevilleta NWR are 

a part. Stakeholder involvement through an oversight 

committee and a series of public meetings improved the 

final product by incorporating the issues and expertise 

of those involved in land and water management and 

private interests.

Planning for Large Scale Habitat Restoration in the 

Socorro Valley, New Mexico

Gina Dello Russo, Ecologist at the Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge and a 

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service representative to the Socorro Save our Bosque Task Force, 

Socorro, NM

Yasmeen Najmi, Planner at the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District and ViceChairperson of the Socorro Save Our Bosque Task Force, Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—One initiative for large scale habitat restoration on the Rio Grande in central 

New Mexico is being led by a nonprofit organization, the Save Our Bosque Task Force. 

The Task Force has just completed a conceptual restoration plan for a 72-kilometer reach 

of river. The goals of the plan were to determine the potential for enhanced biological 

diversity through improved management of river processes. The specific river issues addressed in the plan include endangered species habitat improvement, fire management, 

and increased biodiversity through exotic species control and native plant establishment. Important water issues addressed by this plan include existing and potential 

use by the mosaic of habitats along the river and potential savings through improved 

management and delivery. Restoration of river processes coupled with exotic species 

control, bank destabilization, wetland enhancement, sand bar maintenance, grassland 

reestablishment, and other techniques could improve the diversity of native riparian 

plants on approximately 8,500 hectares of active floodplain under the jurisdiction of 

federal, state, local government agencies and private landowners. Areas where flooding 

occurs less frequently are designated as suitable for reestablishment of grasslands and 

more open forest/savannas. These areas are predicted to provide the greatest water 

savings. Restoration projects in areas where flooding occurs more frequently would 

focus on reestablishment and maintenance of cottonwood/willow forests of different 

age classes, wet meadows, and permanent wetlands. In this way, the diverse mosaic 

of habitat that occurred on the Rio Grande could be restored and maintained while 

addressing important socioeconomic issues, such as water use and fire. This plan is 

presently being used by water and land managers, private landowners, and other local 

interests to guide implementation of large scale resource management efforts.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 87

The Rio Grande of the Socorro valley 

now occupies approximately one third of 

its original floodplain. It is confined by 

a flood control levee along its western 

bank. There is no levee on the eastern 

bank, which allows the river at high flows 

to spread out on a floodplain of approximately 6,900 ha (17,000 acres). There is 

an extensive drainage and water delivery 

system associated with agriculture and 

water management interests.

Methods

Data Collection and Analysis

One of the purposes of the plan was to review the 

available information on historic Rio Grande hydrology, channel morphology and vegetation composition. 

Historically, the Rio Grande’s most dramatic physical 

and biological changes occurred during flood and avulsion events (Carter 1953, Lee 1907). The scouring of 

the floodplain, movement of sediment through the system, plant establishment, and recharge of wetlands and 

shallow groundwater all related to some extent to these 

events. The resulting forests, wetlands, wet meadows, 

scrublands, alkali flats and savannas were a significant 

portion of the floodplain community when Europeans 

arrived (Scurlock 1998). Understanding these river processes and the changes to physical and biological aspects 

of the system tied to water and related land resource 

development since the 1800s were a part of the initial 

analysis for plan preparation.

The Rio Grande of the past century has been used 

to support agriculture and growing human settlements 

(Clark 1987, Simmons 1972). The infrastructure established in the floodplain limited the floodplain available 

for river flows and riparian habitats, altered the flood 

pulses and disrupted the sediment supply (Crawford and 

others 1993). The responses of the river to this altered 

regime have included narrowing of the active channel, 

degradation and in some areas accelerated aggradation, and limited overbank flooding within this “active 

floodplain” (Bullard 1993, LaGasse 1981). Earlier in 

the 20th century, the introduction of exotic plant species, primarily saltcedar (Tamarix sp.), altered the plant 

community throughout much of the river’s length as well 

(Everitt 1998).

Extensive data collection in the Socorro valley by 

a number of federal and state agencies informed the 

analysis of past channel and floodplain dynamics, predicted trends in hydrology and geomorphology, and 

vegetation community alterations and succession. Fluvial 

geomorphology including bed slope analysis, sediment 

analysis and predicted yield, and the delineation of 

subreaches (upstream to downstream: Escondida, San 

Antonio and Refuge) based on these characteristics was 

included in this phase of the planning effort. A flood 

frequency analysis was completed using the San Acacia 

gauge at the upstream end of the plan area (table 1). The 

vegetation classification system originally used (Hink 

and Ohmart 1984) in this plan has now been updated 

and a plan revision includes this more recent information (BOR 2004). This evaluation of river processes 

and historic biological diversity informs the subsequent 

discussions on the feasibility of restoring these processes 

in this reach of river and possible benefits from that 

restoration.

Specific River Issues

A number of issues including threat of wildfire, channel conveyance capacity and flood potential, and the 

present condition of terrestrial and aquatic habitats and 

their use of water are important to the local stakeholders of the valley (Task Force unpublished information). 

Important institutional constraints and resource management goals were also considered in conjunction with 

these issues.

To evaluate the channel capacity and flood potential, 

the bankfull discharge of each subreach, spring flushing 

flows, areas of inundation and a flood frequency analysis 

were developed for restoration designs. Calibration of 

a two dimensional flood routing model (FLO2D; Tetra 

Tech ISG 2000) for this reach had been accomplished 

earlier by other entities. This method of predicting overbank flows (fig. 1), area of inundation, velocity, and depth 

of water was used throughout the plan development for 

addressing issues of flooding, water use, and predicted 

plant community establishment and viability. Sediment 

loading and sand bar dynamics through the reach were 

considered in terms of channel capacity, vegetation establishment, as well as aquatic habitat diversity.

To characterize the existing habitat value and determine possible future conditions in riparian habitats, 

Table 1. Suggested San Acacia flood frequency in cfs.

Return Post Cochiti Entire Record Suggested Flood

Probability Period 1974-2002 1936-2002 Peak Discharge

0.8 1.25 3700 3750 3700

0.5 2 5660 4140 5660

0.2 5 8480 6280 8480

0.1 10 10400 9740 10400

0.04 25 12800 14200 14200

0.02 50 14600 22800 22800

0.01 100 16400 32500 32500

0.002 500 20500 64900 6490
88 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

recent vegetation maps and historic descriptions of the 

plant community “mosaic” of the valley floodplain were 

used (BOR 2002, Crawford and others 1993, Campbell 

and Dick-Peddie 1964). Biologically diverse habitat areas 

attract a more diverse fauna than monotypic saltcedar 

stands (Bosque del Apache NWR unpublished data, Ellis 

1995, Naiman and others 1993). Native woodlands were 

characterized by an overstory of cottonwood (Populus 

deltoides) and Goodding’s black willow (Salix gooddingii) with an understory of coyote willow (Salix exigua), 

New Mexico olive (Foresteria pubescens), screwbean mesquite (Prosopis pubescens), and seepwillow 

(Baccharis sp.). The resulting mapping products were 

used to distinguish sensitive areas for protection from 

wildfire and to calculate estimates for current water use 

without restoration.

The potential for water savings through the reach was 

calculated using the vegetation and predicted flood area 

maps and the most recent information on evapotranspiration estimates for the area (Cleverly and others 2001, 

King and Bawazir 2000). A comparison of pre-restoration and predicted future condition without restoration 

water use was compared with water use associated with 

improved habitat diversity and restored river processes. 

An initial description of the groundwater/surface water 

dynamics through the reach was attempted but existing 

information on this important aspect of the ecosystem 

is limited. Research currently underway will inform 

and improve the analysis of this interaction and become 

part of future updates to the plan (Bowman and others 

2002).

The basic premise for evaluating appropriate plant 

community reestablishment at this conceptual level and 

relating that to potential water savings was to assume that 

riparian plant establishment will be determined by connectivity to the channel, shallow groundwater table and 

flood frequency. The occasional very high flows through 

the reach could establish patches of dense vegetation 

at higher elevations, but the ability of those plants to 

survive could be limited by the local groundwater gradient to the west. Areas currently vegetated with exotic tree 

species that were flooded only at infrequent flood intervals would be reestablished as open grasslands. Those 

areas that were more closely associated with the channel 

and groundwater would most likely be vegetated with 

riparian habitats of dense structure. Estimated area of 

grassland, savanna, wetland, and forest were calculated 

and used in subsequent evaluation of biological diversity 

and water use (fig. 2).

Institutional constraints on the system were evaluated as well. The Middle Rio Grande of New Mexico 

has commitments for water delivery to sovereign tribal 

nations and downstream users (Rivera 1999). The current delivery of water to legal users is based on prior 

appropriations but the Middle Rio Grande has not been 

adjudicated. The river channel through the Socorro 

valley and the Low Flow Conveyance Channel have 

served as delivery systems to downstream water users. 

Management alternatives within current authorities were 

reviewed as a part of plan formation.

Development of the Restoration 

Concepts and Strategies

An exercise to determine the initial ranking of 

proposed restoration components was accomplished 

Figure 2. Flood frequency related to present and reestablished 

plant communities.

Figure 1. Area of overbank flooding by subreach.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 89

through a series of workshops with oversight committee 

members, local professionals in the fields of hydrology, 

geomorphology, engineering and biology, and interested 

citizens. A video of the Rio Grande through the reach 

was available during discussions. A decision-making 

matrix was developed to aid in determining qualitative 

values to the physical and biological attributes, resource 

use and benefits, possible adverse impacts, potential 

techniques and final ranking of restoration technique and 

purpose. Definitions and instructions for matrix components were developed and distributed to participants 

as well. The matrix resulted in an initial prioritization 

of restoration by subreach to assist in restoration plan 

development.

Results

Development of the Conceptual 

Restoration Plan

Results of the decision-making exercise showed 

that restoration of periodic higher flows, restrictions on 

floodplain development and other “passive” restoration 

techniques are considered essential to the enhancement 

of biological diversity through this reach of river. This 

is similar to results of other larger scale evaluations of 

the Rio Grande completed recently (Tetra Tech, Inc. 

2002, Crawford and others 1993). The importance of 

controlling exotic vegetation and diversifying the habitats 

along the river were reflected in ranking as well. Hard 

engineering techniques such as rip rap placement and 

channel gradient control structures ranked very low in 

terms of benefit to this reach of river. Restoration project 

areas were selected based on improved river-floodplain 

connectivity, environmental compatibility, likelihood of 

success, consistency with other restoration activities in 

the subreach, cost, construction feasibility, long-term sustainability, potential response to adaptive management, 

potential water salvage, and potential conflicts.

A series of maps focusing on the different river issues and the recommended techniques to address these 

issues was produced. The “Restoration Lyte Plan” 

was developed to present implementation focusing on 

fire protection, exotic species removal and minimal 

habitat diversification. This version was envisioned to 

address immediate needs with limited costs. The Water 

Salvage Plan and the Drought Reduction Plan have 

been combined into a Drought Impacts Plan that addresses the critical issues during prolonged dry periods. 

Opportunities for water savings through exotic species 

control, fire management, endangered species habitat 

protection, and limiting vegetation encroachment in 

the main channel are included in this mapping product. 

Some of the restoration projects have been designed 

to enhance or restore habitat for both the endangered 

Rio Grande silvery minnow and Southwestern willow 

flycatcher. These projects are highlighted in the Habitat 

Diversity and Endangered Species Habitat Plan and the 

River Dynamics Plan. The Long Term Comprehensive 

Plan consists of all the selected projects from each theme. 

This mapping product provides a tool to discuss long term 

trends in biodiversity, water use, channel dynamics, endangered species habitat availability, and fire protection 

along the 72-hectare river reach with a look at balancing 

these priorities. Different versions were developed to aid 

a number of diverse resource managers in the area. The 

Task Force, in conjunction with interested floodplain 

landowners and management agencies, are prioritizing 

restoration projects based on a phased implementation 

strategy and available budget.

Monitoring and Adaptive Management 

Strategy

The Adaptive Management Plan includes coordination with other stakeholders in the valley through the 

formation of a work group. There is an urgent need 

to understand the ecological effects of restoration as 

implementation moves forward and to develop new 

management options to sustain these projects. The first 

priority of the work group will be to evaluate channel 

and riparian changes and propose priorities for addressing 

undesirable trends in biological diversity. While it is recommended that restoration components be sustained by 

prescribed flow recommendations, the success of some 

restoration activities will be contingent on an adaptive 

management plan that has an appropriate maintenance 

response when flows are not available. Successful adaptive management of this reach of river will depend on 

agency cooperation and public involvement.

The second priority will be to implement a monitoring program to identify the monitoring needs in terms 

of baseline hydrographic, biological, vegetation and 

geomorphic data and long term monitoring of trends in 

the ecosystem. As a part of this monitoring program, 

information to assess restoration success or failure 

would be gathered. It is envisioned that the monitoring 

program developed by the work group will build from the 

existing programs of resource agencies and researchers 

working in the Socorro valley (BOR unpublished data, 

Bestgen and Platania 1989, Hildebrandt and Ohmart 

1982, Muldavin and others 2000, Coonrod and others 

2002, Massong and others 2002, Stromberg and others 1991, FLO Engineering 1999). The plan outlines 

suggested focus areas, parameters, and schedules for 
90 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

monitoring the abiotic and biotic components of Rio 

Grande ecosystem.

The third priority is to develop a set of guidelines for 

responding to ecosystem changes observed through implementation of the monitoring program. Recommended 

responses to undesirable conditions in terms of flood 

frequency and duration, vegetation encroachment, levee 

instability, bank erosion and channel migration, failure 

to induce overbank flooding, river desiccation, sediment 

plugs, and high soil salinity are proposed in this Plan.

Other Products of the Plan

A list of Rio Grande water resource projects, cross 

section plots, a database index, and review comments and 

responses are included in the appendices along with an 

extended bibliography. This bibliography is broken down 

by topics including endangered species, general data, 

geology, geomorphology, history and culture, hydrology, 

general categories, groundwater, surface water, legal and 

administrative, maps, riparian habitat, river restoration, 

sediment load, vegetation, and wildlife.

Discussion

Plan updates will be necessary as new monitoring 

information, current research and new techniques become available. The Task Force has plans to evaluate 

recent groundwater information and a draft surface water/groundwater model for the area (Bowman and others 

2002) for inclusion in future drafts. Current copies are 

available at the Middle Rio Grande Bosque Initiative 

website (www.mrgbi.fws.gov). This information will 

improve restoration selection and feasibility in the valley. It will also improve the analysis of current water 

use by the natural system in this reach and the potential 

for water savings. The FLO2D model will need to be 

calibrated during the next large sustained flood event to 

improve the accuracy of this flood routing model in the 

Socorro valley.

The Task Force is working with private landowners 

to develop restoration plans for their particular parcels 

based on general information derived from the plan and 

proposed site specific monitoring. The Task Force hopes 

to convene the Adaptive Management Work Group in 

early 2005 to begin establishing the monitoring program.

Since this effort was accomplished to address issues 

on the active river floodplain (east of the flood control 

levee), the Task Force did not include evaluation of water 

use, land ownership or other important concerns in the 

valley west of the levee. It is the Task Force’s intention to 

use this CRP as a planning tool for its work in the valley 

and to make it available to other agencies for their use. 

Quantifying potential water savings and improved land 

management opportunities adds information to a larger 

discussion on Rio Grande water issues.

Funding for the development of the plan by contractor 

Tetra Tech, ISG was provided by the Turner Foundation, 

World Wildlife Fund, McCune Charitable Foundation, 

Friends of the Bosque del Apache NWR, Bosque 

Initiative, LightHawk, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and Middle Rio Grande 

ESA Collaborative Program.

References

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riparian vegetation to present and future streamflows. 

Ecological Applications 4(3):544-554.

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New Mexico: year I progress report. Report submitted to 

the New Mexico Department of Game and Fish, Santa Fe, 

and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Albuquerque NM.

Bowman, R. S., Shafike, N., Newton, T., Wilcox L. 2001 & 

2002. New Mexico Tech Earth and Environmental Science’s 

Rio Grande Project Website Homepage, http://www.ees.

nmt.edu/bowman/research/RioGrandeProject/.

Briggs, M. K. 1996. Riparian ecosystem recovery in arid 

lands: strategies and references. University of Arizona 

Press, Tucson, AZ.

Bullard, K. L. 1993. Peak frequency curves for the middle 

Rio Grande. Pp. 527-532 in C. Y. Kuo (ed.) Engineering 

Hydrology. American Society of Civil Engineers, New 

York.

Bullard, T .F. and S. G. Wells. 1992. Hydrology of the middle 

Rio Grande from Velarde Reservoir, New Mexico. Fish and 

Wildlife Service Resource Publication 179. Washington, 

D.C.

Campbell, C .J. and W. A. Dick-Peddie. 1964. Comparison 

of phreatophyte communities on the Rio Grande in New 

Mexico. Ecology 45:492-502.

Carter, R. H. 1953. An historical study of floods prior to 1892 in 

the Rio Grande watershed, NM. Unpublished M.A. Thesis, 

University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM.

Clark, I. G. 1987. Water in New Mexico: a history of its 

management and use. University of New Mexico Press, 

Albuquerque, NM.

Cleverly, J. R., C. N. Dahm, J. R. Thibault, D. J. Gilroy 

and J. E. A. Coonrod. 2001. Seasonal estimates of actual 

evapotranspiration from Tamarix ramosissima stands using 

3-dimensional eddy covariance. University of New Mexico, 

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Arid Environments.

Coonrod, J. and M. Schmidt. 2002. Summary of evapotranspiration and groundwater data at four ET monitoring 

tower sites, Middle Rio Grande Valley, NM 1999-2001 

in draft. University of New Mexico, Department of Civil 

Engineering, Albuquerque, NM.

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L. H. White, and J. P. Wilbur. 1993. Middle Rio Grande 

ecosystem: bosque biological management plan. Middle 
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1996. The potential for implementing partial restoration of 

the middle Rio Grande ecosystem. Pp. 93-99 in D. W. Shaw, 

and D. M. Finch (tech. coords.) Desired future conditions 

for southwestern riparian ecosystems: bringing interests and 

concerns together. Albuquerque, New Mexico.

Ellis, L. M. 1995. Bird use of saltcedar and cottonwood vegetation in the Middle Rio Grande Valley of New Mexico, 

U.S.A. Journal of Arid Environments: 339-349.

Ellis, L. M., C. S. Crawford, and M. C. Molles, Jr. 2002. The 

role of the flood pulse in ecosystem-level processes in 

Southwestern riparian forests: A case study from the Middle 

Rio Grande. Pages 51-107 In: B. A. Middleton (ed.), Flood 

pulsing in wetlands: restoring the natural hydrological 

balance. John Wiley and Sons, Inc.

Everitt, B. L. 1998. Chronology of the spread of tamarisk in 

the central Rio Grande. Wetlands 18(4):658-668.

FLO Engineering, Inc. 1999. Total load measurements data 

collection report, Volume II, Socorro (SO) lines, June, 1999. 

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Albuquerque Projects Office, 

Albuquerque, NM.

Hildebrandt, T. D. and R. D. Ohmart, 1982. Biological resource 

inventory (vegetation and wildlife) Pecos River Basin, New 

Mexico and Texas. USDI Bureau of Reclamation, Final 

Report. Arizona State University, Center for Environmental 

Studies, Tempe Arizona.

Hink, V. C., and R. D. Ohmart. 1984. Middle Rio Grande 

survey: final report. Center for Environmental Studies, 

Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ.

King, J. P., and A. S. Bawazir. 2000. Riparian evapotranspiration studies of the middle Rio Grande. Technical completion 

report, Project No. 1-4-23955.

LaGasse, P. F. 1981. Geomorphic response of the Rio Grande 

to dam construction. in Wells, S.G. and W. Lambert (eds.) 

Environmental geology and hydrology in New Mexico. New 

Mexico Geological Society Special Publication No. 10.

Lee, W. T. 1907. Water resources of the Rio Grande valley 

in New Mexico, and their development. U.S. Geological 

Survey Water Supply and Irrigation papers 188:1-59. 

Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.

Massong, T., T. Bauer, and M. Nemeth. 2002. Geomorphologic 

assessment of the Rio Grande San Acacia reach. River 

Analysis Team Bureau of Reclamation Albuquerque, 

NM.

Molles Jr., M. C., C. S. Crawford, L. M. Ellis, H. M. Vallett, 

and C. N. Dahm. 1998. Managed flooding for riparian 

ecosystem restoration. BioScience 48(9):749-756.

Muldavin, E., P. Durkin, M. Bradley, M. Stuever, and P. 

Mehlhop. 2000. Handbook of wetland vegetation communities of New Mexico, Volume 1: Classification and 

community descriptions. New Mexico Natural Heritage 

Program, Biology Department, University of New 

Mexico.

Naiman, R. J., H. Décamps, and M. Pollock. 1993. The role 

of riparian corridors in maintaining regional biodiversity. 

Ecological Applications 3(2):209-212.

Rivera, J. A. 1999. Water democracies on the upper Rio 

Grande, 1598-1998. Pp. 20-28 in D. M. Finch, J. C. 

Whitney, J. F. Kelley, and S. R. Loftin (tech. coords.) Rio 

Grande ecosystems: linking land, water, and people toward 

a sustainable future for the Middle Rio Grande Basin, 

Albuquerque, NM.

Scurlock, D. S. 1988. The Rio Grande Bosque: ever changing. 

New Mexico Historical Review 63:131-140.

Simmons, M. 1972. Spanish irrigation practices in New 

Mexico. New Mexico Historical Review 47:135-150.

Sparks, R. E. 1995. Need for ecosystem management of large 

rivers and their floodplains: these phenomenally productive 

ecosystems produce fish and wildlife and preserve species. 

BioScience 45(3):168-182.

Stromberg, J. C., D. T. Patten, and B. D. Richter. 1991. Flood 

flows and dynamics of Sonoran riparian forests. Rivers 

2(3):221-235.

Tetra Tech, Inc. 2002. Rio Grande restoration vision. Prepared 

for the Alliance for the Rio Grande Heritage, Albuquerque, 

New Mexico.

Tetra Tech, ISG. 2000. Middle Rio Grande FLO-2D Model, 

report on San Acacia - San Marcial predicted overbank 

flooding. Report submitted to Bureau of Reclamation, 

Albuquerque, NM.

U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation. 2004. 

Updated vegetation mapping of the Rio Grande. In draft.
92 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Overview of Saltcedar Biological Control

C. Jack DeLoach, Research Entomologist and Lead Scientist, Saltcedar Biological 

Control Project

Lindsey R. Milbrath, Research Entomologist, USDA-ARS, Grasslands Soil and Water 

Research Laboratory, Temple, TX

Ray Carruthers, Ecologist and Research Leader, USDA-ARS, Exotic and Invasive Weed 

Research Unit, Albany, CA

Allen E. Knutson , Professor and Extension Entomologist, Texas A&M University Research 

& Extension Center, Dallas, TX

Fred Nibling and Debra Eberts, Research Botanists, U.S. Department of Interior, 

Bureau of Reclamation, Ecological Research & Investigations Group, Denver, CO

David C. Thompson, Research Entomologist, Department of Entomology, Plant Pathology 

& Weed Science, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM

David J. Kazmer, Research Entomologist, USDA-ARS, Northern Plains Agricultural 

Research Laboratory, Sidney, MT

Tom L. Dudley, Research Entomologist, University of Nevada, Department Environmental 

& Resource Science, Reno, NV

Dan W. Bean, Research Entomologist, Department of Vegetable Crops, University of 

California at Davis, Albany, CA

Jeff B. Knight, State Entomologist, Nevada Department of Agriculture, Reno, NV

Abstract—Biological control has successfully controlled 10 exotic, invasive weeds of 

rangelands and natural ecosystems in the United States since 1945, and control of others is in progress. We initiated biological control of saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in 1987, 

using host-specific insect herbivores that regulate saltcedar populations in the Old 

World. We did a risk analysis, including the possible effects of biological control on the 

endangered southwestern willow flycatcher, (Empidonax trailii extimus) which had 

begun nesting extensively in saltcedar in Arizona. Our cooperators in France, Israel, 

Kazakhstan, China, and Turkmenistan tested 20 candidate control insects. Then, after 

quarantine testing, we released the first of these, the leaf beetle Diorhabda elongata 

Brullé from China and Kazakhstan, into field cages at 10 approved sites in 6 states in 

1999 and into the open environment in May 2001. These beetles established at five 

sites in Nevada, Utah, Colorado and Wyoming and defoliated from 40 to 600 ha at each 

site by late June 2004. However, these beetles failed to establish in Texas and southern 

California because short summer daylengths stimulated premature diapause and failure 

to overwinter. In 2002, our overseas cooperators sent Diorhabda biotypes from four 

southern latitudes. After quarantine testing, we released some of these biotypes into 

field cages and then into the open environment at 5 sites in Texas, 2 in New Mexico, 

and 2 in California during late 2003 and 2004. They overwintered well, are increasing 

in population, and have begun defoliating saltcedar at 2 sites but have encountered 

heavy predation in some areas; intensive monitoring is underway. Biological control 

can provide self-sustaining, permanent, safe, and low cost control of saltcedars. This will 

allow recovery of native riparian plant communities, improved wildlife and fish habitat, 

reduced wildfires, increased availability of water, and increased recreational usage of 

parks and natural areas.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 93

Introduction

The invasion of river bottoms and lakeshores of the 

western United States by exotic, saltcedars is producing 

one of the worst ecological disasters in the recorded history of that region. Saltcedars, introduced in 1823, spread 

rapidly after the 1920s and today occupy over 800,000 

ha of highly valuable land along streams and lakeshores 

from the central Great Plains to the Pacific and from 

Montana into northern Mexico. They often completely 

displace native plant communities, degrade wildlife 

habitat, and contribute to the population decline of many 

species of birds, fishes, mammals, and reptiles, including 

many threatened or endangered species (Wilcove and 

others 1998). They increase wildfires and soil salinity, 

lower water tables and reduce recreational usage of parks 

and natural areas. Saltcedar thickets typically use 4 to 

5 acre feet of water per year that in the present drought 

severely reduces water available for agricultural irrigation, municipal and environmental use. They contribute 

to default of water agreements between states and between the U.S. and Mexico and damage parks and natural 

area reserves bordering the Rio Grande (Reviewed by 

DeLoach and others 2000).

Taxonomy and Distribution

Saltcedars (Tamarix: Tamaricaceae: Tamaricales) are a 

genus of 54 species of small trees or shrubs native only in 

the Old World. The genus evolved in riparian habitats in 

arid, saline areas of Central Asia, with a secondary center 

of speciation in the eastern Mediterranean area (Baum 

1978). Ten species have been introduced into the United 

States since 1823 as ornamentals and to control streambank erosion in the West. Four species and their hybrids 

have become serious pests in the West: T. ramosissima, 

T. chinensis (both widespread), T. canariensis (Gulf of 

Mexico coast), and T. parviflora (California) (Gaskin and 

Schaal 2002). All are deciduous, deep rooted, facultative 

phreatophytes, with pink flowers and with foliage of 

juniper (cedar) – like bracts. The large, evergreen tree, 

Tamarix aphylla (athel), that is a common shade tree of 

the Chihuahuan and Sonoran deserts, is less aggressive 

and is not a target for biological control.

Conventional Controls

Saltcedars are difficult to control by mechanical 

methods, fire or many herbicides because of their ability to resprout from underground buds and to reinvade 

from their windblown seeds. Recently, “arsenal” (imazapyr) used as an aerial spray and “garlon” (triclopyr) 

as a cut-stump treatment provide good control (Duncan 

and McDaniel 1998). However, both are expensive and 

arsenal also kills many native plants. These controls are 

unsatisfactory in natural areas of mixed vegetation where 

the objective is to kill the invading weed and preserve 

the beneficial and native plants.

Biological Control

Biological control of weeds is best suited to control 

exotic, invasive weeds in relatively stable ecosystems 

such as natural areas and rangelands, by the introduction of the natural enemies (insects or sometimes plant 

pathogens) that regulate the weed’s abundance in its native region. The objective is to permanently reduce the 

weed’s abundance below the damage level, but not to 

eradicate it. The philosophy and methodology of biological control of weeds has been developed and reviewed 

by many workers (Huffaker 1957, Nechols and others 

1995). This method has been used worldwide since 1865 

against 133 weed species in 51 countries (Julien and 

Griffiths 1999). In North America, it began in 1945 and 

has been used against 40 exotic weeds of rangelands and 

natural areas. It has been highly successful in a third of 

the attempts (often with no additional control ever needed 

over wide areas) and partially successful in another third. 

The method also has been very safe, with only eight 

reported cases of non-target feeding worldwide (seven 

minor and temporary and one of moderate damage with 

stand reduction), all from agents released before testing 

protocols, reviews and authorization were tightened in 

1965 and all predicted in the pre-release testing. The low 

beneficial values of saltcedar, its lack of closely related 

plants in the Western Hemisphere, and the large number 

of host-specific and damaging insects that attack it within 

its native distribution in the Old World, make saltcedar 

well suited for biological control.

Progress in Biological Control

A program of classical biological control for saltcedar, 

by the introduction of the Tamarix-specific insects that 

regulate its populations in its area of natural distribution 

in Asia and the Mediterranean area, was initiated in 1987 

by one of us (DeLoach) at USDA-ARS, Temple, TX, 

supported from the beginning by the USDI Bureau of 

Reclamation. The project was joined in 1998 by the new 

ARS Exotic and Invasive Weeds Research Unit (ARSAlbany) organized by one of us (Carruthers).
94 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Discovery and Testing of Control 

Insects

Surveys of the natural enemies of saltcedar have 

been made in its native geographical range for many 

years, as a part of the studies of the natural resources 

of the Soviet Union, summarized by Kovalev (1995). 

We began overseas exploration and testing in 1991 with 

our collaborators at ARS European Biological Control 

Laboratory (EBCL), France (Alan Kirk and Rouhollah 

Sobhian); Tel Aviv University, Israel (Dan Gerling); 

ARS Sino-American Biological Control Laboratory, 

Beijing and Urumqi, China (Ren Wang, Qing Guang Lu, 

Hongyen Chen, and Bao Ping Li); Almaty, Kazakhstan 

(Roman Jashenko and Ivan Mityaev); and Ashkhabad, 

Turkmenistan (Svetlana Myartseva). Those studies 

together have revealed over 300 highly specific and 

damaging insect species as potential biological control 

agents (DeLoach and others 1996).

After completing a literature review and a risk analysis, we began testing in quarantine at ARS-Temple in 

1992, and at ARS-Albany in 1998. From the 20 candidate 

control insects investigated overseas, we tested 7 species 

and selected the leaf beetle Diorhabda elongata Brullé, 

from Fukang, China and Chilik, Kazakhstan as the first 

and most promising candidate for complete testing and 

release (DeLoach and others 2000).

Both adults and larvae of D. elongata (fig. 1a,b,c), 

feed on the foliage of saltcedar and the large larvae also 

de-bark small twigs causing the distal foliage to die. 

Several years of laboratory and outdoor cage testing 

demonstrated that D. elongata is unlikely to attack any 

non-target plants except for possibly causing slight damage to the related, native Frankenia salina in California 

but not F. jamesii or F. johnstonii in Colorado and Texas. 

It also might cause moderate damage to exotic athel trees 

(T. aphylla), which have some value as shade trees and 

windbreaks in the southernmost United States and northern Mexico; however, athel also is becoming invasive in 

some areas (DeLoach and others 2003, Lewis and others 

2003a, John Herr, Albany and Lindsey Milbrath, Temple, 

manuscripts in progress).

The adults overwinter and the larvae pupate under 

litter beneath the trees. Laboratory tests showed that 

beetle populations can double each 6.2 days. Field cage 

studies showed a range of population increases but a 

30-fold increase per generation was not uncommon. In 

Colorado and Wyoming, overwintered adults become 

active in late-April and produced two generations before 

they began overwintering in September. In the more 

southern areas, the saltcedar growing season appears to 

be long enough to allow completion of 4 or possibly 5 

generations (Lewis and others 2003b).

Clearances and Permits

In March 1994, we submitted a petition to the Technical 

Advisory Group on Biological Control of Weeds (TAG) 

of the USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service 

(APHIS) asking their recommendation for release of 

Diorhabda elongata into the open field.

However, the listing of the southwestern willow 

flycatcher as federally endangered in February 1995 

required consultation with the USDI Fish and Wildlife 

Service (FWS). We submitted a Biological Assessment, 

to FWS Region 2, Albuquerque, NM in October 1997. 

This risk analysis revealed that the flycatcher had begun 

nesting extensively in saltcedar in some areas of Arizona 

since saltcedar had replaced the native willow habitat, 

but little in other areas. The effect of biological control 

on the other 50 threatened or endangered (T&E) species 

reviewed was expected to be beneficial or cause no effect. However, the harmful effects of saltcedar reduced 

reproductive success of the flycatcher to half of that in 

its native willow habitat, in heavily infested areas along 

the lower Colorado River and at Roosevelt Lake, AZ 

(DeLoach and others 2000). Recently, flycatcher populations have increased dramatically, but only in areas where 

the willows have increased.

In June 1998, we, with staff from several other agencies, met with FWS to discuss their requirements for 

approving release of the Diorhabda beetles. We then 

submitted a Research Proposal to FWS on 28 August 

1998 for release of the beetles. This document included 

specifications as follows: a research phase in which; 1) 

D. elongata could be released only into secure field cages 

at 10 specified sites in different climatic zones in Texas, 

Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, Nevada and California, all 

more than 200 mi from where the flycatcher nested in 

saltcedar. The beetles would be monitored in the cages for 

one year to determine their survival, developmental biology, rate of increase, and observed damage to saltcedar 

and non-target plants in the cages. 2) The beetles then 

were to be released into the open field for a 2-year period, 

during which the degree and rapidity of control, rate of 

natural dispersal, and effects on native plant and wildlife 

communities would be monitored. After this combined 

3-year research period, FWS and APHIS would review 

the research results and determine the conditions under 

which an Implementation Phase could be carried out 

in which unlimited releases could be made in specified 

areas. The Letter of Concurrence issued by FWS on 28 

December 1998 (revised 3 June 1999), the Environmental 

Assessment prepared by APHIS in February 1999, the 

Finding of No Significant Impact (FONSI) issued on 7 

July, and the APHIS permits to release in the field cages 

during July 1999, all contained these restrictions.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 95

The Saltcedar Biological Control Consortium had been 

organized in December 1997 by one of us (DeLoach), 

and is co-chaired by three of us (Carruthers, Nibling, 

DeLoach) to help guide this process and to provide 

coordination between agencies and input, guidance and 

oversight in the research program from user and environmental organizations (Stenquist 2003). It has met 

annually since then and now has representatives from ca. 

50 federal and state agencies, universities, and private user 

and environmental groups. The sister Tamarix Coalition 

in Grand Junction, CO and the Rio Grande Institute in 

western Texas were organized more recently.

Experimental Releases and Results in 

Field Cages: July 1999 to May 2001

After receiving FWS concurrence and FWS permits, 

we placed the beetles into field cages during the summers 

of 1999 and 2000 at 10 sites in six states. This research 

was coordinated by some of us at each site: for Fukang, 

China beetles: DeLoach at Seymour, TX; Eberts at 

Pueblo, CO; Kazmer at Lovell, WY and Lake Ft. Peck, 

MT; Knight at Lovelock, Stillwater and Schurz, NV; and 

Carruthers and Dudley at Bishop, Hunter-Liggett and 

Cache Creek, CA; and for Chilik, Kazakhstan beetles, by 

Greg Abbot, APHIS at Delta, UT. These beetles successfully overwintered in the cages at the eight most northern 

sites, all north of the 38th parallel, although only weakly 

so at Stillwater and Cache Creek. At the five sites where 

strong overwintering occurred (Pueblo, Lovell, Delta, 

Lovelock and Schurz), the beetles increased to large 

numbers during the summer and completely defoliated 

the plants inside the cages during both 1999 and 2000. 

They failed to overwinter at the two sites south of the 

38th parallel, at Seymour and Hunter-Liggett. Here, they 

ceased feeding and egg laying, and began overwintering 

in early July but did not survive the winter (Lewis and 

others 2003b).

In laboratory and outdoor cage tests, Lewis and others 

(2003b) at Temple and Dan Bean at Albany showed that 

these beetles entered premature overwintering diapause 

at daylengths less than 15 h 45 min, then starved during 

the 8 to 9 months of often warm temperatures before 

spring. Maximum daylength at Seymour is only 14 hr 

21 min and is even less farther south, which caused the 

failure to overwinter.

Releases and Results in the Open Field 

in Northern Areas: May 2001 to Late 

Summer 2004

Based on the field-cage results and additional 

host specificity testing (Lewis and others 2003a), we 

requested and received release permits from APHIS. We 

released adults into the open field during May 2001 at 

the 6 sites where the beetles had overwintered, plus at 

Seymour. We released approximately 27,000 adults and 

larvae at Lovell, WY; 6900 adults plus many larvae at 

Pueblo, CO; 15,000 at Delta, UT; 3,500 at Schurz and 

1,400 at Lovelock, NV; 4,400 larvae and 2000 adults at 

Bishop, CA; and 498 adults at Seymour, TX.

During the remainder of the summer, we found a few 

to moderate numbers of eggs, larvae, and adults and 

dispersal of only about 10 m. When large larvae of the 

second generation developed in mid-August 2002, we 

saw extensive damage at some sites. At Lovelock on 28 

August, the larvae had destroyed 95 to 98 percent of the 

foliage of all trees within an area 100 m in diameter (1 

ha), centered at the release cage. Heavy feeding but not 

total defoliation had occurred in an additional concentric 

ring 50 m wide outside the affected core area. We saw a 

similar area of defoliation at Pueblo. We observed heavy 

predation by ants at Lovell and by birds at Delta. The 

beetles failed to establish at Seymour.

During 2003, the beetles at Lovelock had defoliated 

3.2 ha in early July, and by early September about 200 

ha (total area of land infested by saltcedar, not canopy 

cover of the trees), along a 5 km reach of the Humboldt 

River (Carruthers and others, this proceedings). By 

September 2003, several plants had resprouted profusely 

from the base and occasionally from the upper branches 

but enough beetles had remained in the stand to defoliate this regrowth. At Schurz (Fig. 1d), the beetles had 

defoliated ca. 12 ha along the Walker River and at Pueblo 

ca. 40 ha. At Delta and Lovell, the beetles overcame bird 

and ant predation in 2002 to defoliate 40 ha and 6 ha, 

respectively by September 2003.

By the end of 3 1⁄2 growing seasons after release (late 

June 2004), defoliation by the Fukang/Chilik beetles 

at the five northern sites had increased 3 to 5 fold over 

the amount in August 2003, to an estimated 600 ha at 

Lovelock, 200 ha at Delta, 120 ha at Schurz and Pueblo, 

and 40 ha at Lovell. As of late 2004, few trees have been 

completely killed, but we expect to see increasing whole 

tree death during 2005 and 2006. However, the defoliation has been 95 to 100 percent, which has reduced water 

usage to a very low level and has opened the canopy 

cover and allowed other plants to begin increasing in 

growth and number. Bird populations have increased at 

least temporarily at Lovelock, apparently because of the 

increased food supply (the Diorahbda beetles). In 2003, 

additional releases of the Fukang/Chilik beetles were 

made at Lake Fort Peck, MT by one of us (Kazmer, site 

manager) and at Owyhee, OR by one of us (Dudley) and 

E.M. Coombs, Oregon Department of Agriculture (site 

managers).
96 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Short-Daylength Beetles Discovered 

and Released in Southern Areas

One of us (Carruthers) discovered Diorhabda biotypes 

at lower latitudes in Crete and mainland Greece, and 

through our cooperators at EBCL France in Tunisia and 

Uzbekistan and through cooperators in China at Turpan. 

Some of these biotypes have the potential to establish 

south of the 38th parallel and perhaps throughout the 

southern range of saltcedar in the southwestern U.S. and 

northern Mexico. The Crete beetles, placed in a large outdoor cage at Temple during August 2002, overwintered 

with little mortality and began feeding and reproducing vigorously on the plants by early April. Additional 

host specificity testing of these four new biotypes of D. 

elongata from the Old World demonstrated that they also 

are safe to release (Lindsey Milbrath, ARS-Temple and 

John Herr, ARS-Albany, manuscripts in preparation), 

although they may feed slightly on native Frankenia 

salina in California, and they probably will moderately 

damage the exotic athel (T. aphylla) trees (fig. 1e, f) in 

the southern areas.

The southern-adapted Crete beetles were placed in 

field cages and in the open field in the southern areas during the summer of 2003 and 2004 (table 1). Populations 

are increasing near Big Spring, TX and at Artesia, NM 

and they were beginning to defoliate several saltcedar 

trees, as of late August 2004. However, these beetles 

Figure 1. Diorhabda elongata egg 

mass-A; third instar larva-B; adultC; defoliated plants at Schurz, NV, 

August 2003-D; foliage of Tamarix 

ramosissima or hybrid-E and foliage 

of Tamarix aphylla-F.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 97

have experienced heavy predation by ladybird beetles 

at Cache Creek and Lake Thomas and by assassin bugs 

at Artesia. We are releasing large numbers into nearby 

subplots in an attempt to avoid or overwhelm the predators. The vigorous feeding and reproduction by these 

beetles, and the longer growing season allows three to 

five generations a year, and could result in even better 

control in the south than observed in the north.

Monitoring

An intensive monitoring program is being carried out 

as required (see Clearances and Permits, above), under 

monitoring plans developed by the Saltcedar Biological 

Control Consortium by Juli Gould for the control insects 

and damage to saltcedar, by Tom Dudley for saltcedar 

and native plant recovery, and by Larry White for bird 

populations (Gould and others 2000).

The basic monitoring plan specifies a 10 ha sampling 

circle centered at the beetle release point with 100 (now 

reduced to 40) permanently marked sentinel saltcedar 

trees within 3 concentric rings of 1, 2 and 7 ha. Diorhabda 

and other insect populations, percent defoliation, plant 

growth and condition are measured periodically on four 

marked 40 cm long branch terminals on each saltcedar 

tree. Once or twice annually, the vegetation is sampled 

by measuring tree height and diameter, percent healthy, 

yellowing or dead branches, and the distance, species 

identification and size of three nearest neighbor trees. 

Also, low vegetation is measured in two 1 m2 quadrats, 

one under and one outside the tree canopy, in which 

present cover of all species and of litter and bare soil is 

estimated. This sampling plan now seems inadequate 

because the beetles rapidly overflow and completely 

defoliate the entire sampling circle. Modifications, such 

as the inclusion of long transects, are being discussed.

The beetles disperse beyond the defoliated area, and 

are difficult to find at low densities. Our cooperators, Bob 

Bartelt and Allard Cossé, ARS-Peoria, IL have developed 

a beetle pheromone and a saltcedar extract that are very 

attractive to Diorhabda beetles over distances of 10 to 20 

m. These have been effective in monitoring the dispersal 

of the Fukang beetles at Lovelock. (Earl Andress, APHIS, 

Barstow, CA, personal communication).

For monitoring birds, two riparian sampling areas 

are selected, one with near monotypic saltcedar and 

one with nearly pure native vegetation. In each area, 10 

permanent point-count areas are located, each 100 m in 

diameter and separated from each other by 100 m. Three 

or more times annually during the breeding season, the 

Table 1. Field release of southern adapted Diorahbda elongata biotypes in 2003 or 2004.

Origin (and latitude) of beetles: date released

Approved °N Crete Tunisia Uzbekistan Turpan, China Posidi, Greece

release site latitude (35°20 ́) (34°46 ́) (39°55 ́) (42°57 ́) (39°58 ́)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Released in field cages- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Cache Creek, CA 38°56 ́ 22 Aug

John Martin, CO 38°6 ́ May 2004

Bishop, CA 37°5 ́ May 2004

Hunter-Liggett, CA 35°57 ́ 18 Sep 03

Lake Merideth, TX 35°29 ́ May 2004

Seymour, TX 33°43 ́ 24 Jun 20 Mar

Artesia, NM 33°9 ́ 13 Aug

Lake Thomas, TX 32°36 ́ 10 Jul 31 Jul

Big Spring, TX 32°15 ́ 10 Jul 20 Aug

Brantley, NM 32°5 ́ May 2004

Ft. Stockton, TX 30°50 ́

Candelaria, TX 30°8 ́

San Jacinto SP, TX 29°45 ́

Kingsville, TX 27°25 ́ 27 Aug 13 Aug

Zapata, TX 26°58 ́ 5 Nov 26 Aug

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -Released in open field- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Cache Creek, CA 38°56 ́ 29 Oct

John Martin, CO 38°6 ́ July 2004

Hunter-Liggett, CA 35°57 ́ 7 Sept

Lake Merideth, TX 35°29 ́ July 2004

Seymour, TX 33°43 ́ 14 Aug 31 Jul

Artesia, NM 33°9 ́ 28 Aug

Lake Thomas, TX 32°36 ́ 21 Aug

Big Spring, TX 32°15 ́ 16 Sept

Brantley, NM 32°5 ́ July 2004

Kingsville, TX 27°25 ́ 10 June 2004
98 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

numbers of each bird species seen or heard during 5 min 

are counted from the center point of each circle. This allows a direct comparison between saltcedar and native 

vegetation, and also of populations in saltcedar before 

and after biological control with the native plots as a 

statistical control. Procedures also have been developed 

for monitoring butterflies, all insects, bats, other small 

mammals, and reptiles.

Previous and continuing research on remote sensing 

promises a good and less expensive method of monitoring 

the degree and extent of control (Everitt and DeLoach 

1990) and of the recovery of native riparian plant 

communities following control although some ground 

truthing will still be needed. (Carruthers and others, this 

proceedings).

Expectations From Control

We expect biological control to gradually (over a 

period of 3 to 5 years) and permanently to reduce the 

abundance of saltcedar to below the level of economic 

or environmental damage, but not to eradicate it. In this 

situation, both saltcedar and the beetles would remain 

at fluctuating low population levels, the beetles always 

would be present to control regrowth or reinvasion, and 

100 percent control (never obtained by biological or any 

other method) is not needed.

Under these conditions, we expect the native plant 

communities to reestablish naturally in most areas 

where depth to water table and soil salinity are not too 

great. This should improve wildlife habitat and allow 

the recovery of many species of birds and fish and some 

mammals and reptiles, including several threatened and 

endangered species. Control of saltcedar is expected to 

increase the amount and quality of water available for 

irrigated agriculture, municipalities, and the environment 

and to help fulfill the water rights agreements between 

states and between the United States and Mexico. Control 

also is expected to increase recreational usage of parks 

and wildland areas and to reduce wildfire and salinity 

levels.

Large-scale revegetation projects are under development by the USDI Bureau of Reclamation for areas where 

natural revegetation may be insufficient. Several other 

biological control insects are also being developed by 

our overseas cooperators for use in fringe climatic areas 

when the Diorhabda beetles may not provide sufficient 

control or where predators may limit control, or where 

their release may not be allowed.

Saltcedar also has invaded large areas in northern 

Mexico, where it is damaging natural areas and contributing to the acute water shortages along the Rio Bravo and 

in other areas. The U.S. program easily can be extended 

into Mexico at very low cost, through the participation 

of Mexican scientists. However, the large, exotic, athel 

trees (fig. 1e, f) are valued to some degree in northern 

Mexico for shade trees, hedges, and windbreaks. The 

Diorhabda beetles are expected to damage athel to some 

extent, based on our cage studies (Lindsey Milbrath, 

ARS-Temple, manuscript in preparation). Open-field 

tests are underway at Kingsville, TX and Artesia, NM 

to quantify this (Patrick Moran, ARS-Weslaco, site manager). Approval of the Mexican scientists, natural areas 

managers, and authorities is being sought before releases 

are made along the Rio Grande, Texas.

References

Baum, B. R. 1978. The Genus Tamarix. Israel Academy of 

Sciences and Humanities, Jerusalem. 209 pp.

DeLoach, C. J.; Gerling, D.; Fornasari, L.; Sobhian, R.; 

Myartseva, S.; Mityaev, I. D.; Lu, Q. G.; Tracy, J. L.; Wang, 

R.; Wang, J. F.; Kirk, A.; Pemberton, R. W.; Chikatunov, 

V.; Jashenko, R. V.; Johnson, J. E.; Zeng, H.; Jiang, S. L.; 

Liu, M. T.; Liu, A. P.; Cisneroz, J. 1996. Biological control 

programme against saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in the United 

States of America: Progress and problems. In: Moran, V. C.; 

Hoffmann, J. H., eds. Proceedings of the IX International 

Symposium on the Biological Control of Weeds 19-26 

January 1996. University of Cape Town, South Africa: 

253-260.

DeLoach, C. J.; Carruthers, R. I.; Lovich, J. E.; Dudley, 

T. L.; Smith, S. D. 2000. Ecological Interactions in the 

Biological Control of Saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in the 

United States: Toward a New Understanding. In: Spencer, 

N. R., ed. Proceedings of the X International Symposium 

on Biological Control Weeds; 4-14 July 1999; Bozeman, 

MT. Montana State University, MT: 819-873.

DeLoach, C. J.; Lewis, P. A.; Herr, J. C.; Carruthers, R. I.; 

Tracy, J. L.; Johnson, J. 2003. Host specificity of the 

leaf beetle, Diorhabda elongata deserticola (Coleoptera: 

Chrysomelidae) from Asia, a biological control agent for 

saltcedars (Tamarix: Tamaricaceae) in the western United 

States. Biological Control 27: 117-147.

Duncan, K. W.; McDaniel, K. C. 1998. Saltcedar (Tamarix

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337-344.

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tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis) and associated vegetation. 

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Gaskin, J. F.; Schaal, B. A. 2002. Hybrid Tamarix widespread 

in U.S. invasion and undetected in native Asian range. 

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99: 

11256-11259.

Gould, J.; Dudley, T.; White, L. 2000. Plan for monitoring 

the effects of releasing the saltcedar leafbeetle, Diorhabda 

elongata, for biological control of saltcedar. Report, Insect, 

Vegetation and Wildlife Committee, Saltcedar Biological 

Control Consortium. 18 p.

Huffaker, C. B. 1957. Fundamentals of biological control of 

weeds. Hilgardia 27: 101-157.

Julien, M.; White, G. 1997. Biological Control of Weeds: 

theory and practical application. ACIAR Monograph No. 

49. 192 p.
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Julien, M. J.; Griffiths, M. W. 1999. Biological control of 

weeds: A world catalogue of agents and their target weeds, 

fourth ed. CABI Publishing, Wallingford, Oxon OX10 

8DE, UK.

Kovalev, O. V. 1995. Co-evolution of the tamarisks 

(Tamaricaceae) and pest arthropods (Insecta; Arachnida: 

Acarina) with special reference to biological control 

prospects. Proceedings of Zoological Institute, Russian 

Academy of Sciences, St. Petersburg, Russia, Vol. 29. 

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Lewis, P. A.; DeLoach, C. L.; Herr, J. C.; Dudley, T. L.; 

Carruthers, R. I. 2003a. Assessment of risk to native 

Frankenia shrubs from an Asian leaf beetle, Diorhabda 

elongata deserticola (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), introduced for biological control of saltcedars (ˆ spp.) in the 

western United States. Biological Control 27: 148-166.

Lewis, P. A.; DeLoach, C. J.; Knutson, A. E.; Tracy, J. L.; 

Robbins, T.O. 2003b. Biology of Diorhabda elongata 

deserticola (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), an Asian leafbeetle for biological control of saltcedars (ˆ spp.) in the 

United States. Biological Control 27: 101-116.

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R. D.; Jackson, C. G. 1995. Biological control in the 

western United States. Accomplishments and Benefits of 

Regional Research Project W-84, 1964-1989. University 

of California, Oakland, CA, Division of Agriculture and 

Natural Resources Publication 3361.

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100 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The key problem of conventional agriculture in the 

tropics and subtropics is the steady decline in soil fertility, which is closely correlated with the duration of soil 

use. The reason for this can be found primarily in the 

occurrence of soil erosion, the loss of organic matter, 

leaching of nutrients into deeper soil layers, and soil 

physical degradation associated with conventional tillage 

practices that leaves the soil bare and unprotected in 

times of heavy rainfall and heat (Derpsch and Moriya 

1998). The result of soil degradation is not only that 

farm land has to go out of the production process, but 

also that there is an increasing need for more inputs and 

investments to maintain high levels of productivity. In 

the United States for instance, 50 percent of fertilizer 

needs is applied only to compensate for the losses in 

soil fertility due to soil degradation, and in Zimbabwe, 

soil nutrient losses by erosion are three times higher 

than the total quantity of fertilizers applied (Stocking 

1988, cited by Steiner 1996). The GLASOD project 

(Global Assessment of Soil Degradation), which is a 

United Nations program for the environment (UNEP) 

that aims to determine worldwide soil degradation, 

distinguishes four processes of degradation caused by 

man: degradation by water erosion, by wind erosion, 

chemical and physical soil degradation (Oldeman and 

others 1990). According to this study, the major cause of 

soil degradation is water erosion (56 percent), followed 

by wind erosion (28 percent). In other words, erosion 

is responsible for 84 percent of soil degradation worldwide (Oldeman and others 1993). The following major 

factors are mentioned as causing degradation by water 

erosion: deforestation (43 percent), overgrazing (29 percent), and bad soil management (24 percent). However, 

soil preparation, which is the major factor causing 

soil degradation, is not mentioned, and is probably 

confused with bad soil management and deforestation. 

According to Oldeman and others (1993), the most important forms of chemical soil degradation are the loss 

of nutrients and organic matter in South America, and 

salinisation in Asia. Under the main causes of chemical soil degradation, bad soil management (56 percent) 

and deforestation (28 percent) are mentioned. Similar 

results are reported by FAO (1984). In this case also, 

the influence of soil preparation on soil degradation is 

not considered. It appears that most professionals avoid 

using the term “soil preparation” as a factor responsible 

for soil degradation and prefer to use terms like “bad 

soil management,” where various factors, one of which 

is soil preparation, are involved.

There is evidence that conventional soil tillage, which 

leaves the surface of the soil bare and unprotected, is one 

of the major causes of erosion and soil degradation on 

agricultural land. Maximum sediment amounts as well as 

phosphorus and nitrogen content in the water of the Itaipú 

dam (shared by Paraguay and Brazil), were measured in 

times of soil preparation for winter and summer crops 

(Derpsch and others 1991).

The Laws of Diminishing 

Yields in the Tropics and 

Subtropics

In nature there are laws ruling the diminishing productivity of soils which have to be taken into account in 

agricultural and livestock production. Disregard of these 

laws promotes the degradation of soils and the loss of soil 

productivity. Respect for these laws is indispensable if 

we aim to obtain sustainable agricultural production.

Any agricultural or livestock production system that 

contributes to constantly reducing the organic matter 

content of the soil is not sustainable and results in poor 

soils and farmers.

Under tropical and subtropical conditions intensive 

and repeated tillage will generally mineralize (reduce) 

organic matter at rates higher than the potential for 

repositioning. This results in a decreasing organic 

matter content of the soil and diminishing crop yields 

over time.

1.

2.

The Laws of Diminishing Yields in the Tropics

R. Derpsch, Ing. Agr. MSc., Senior Advisor to MAG-GTZ Soil Conservation Proyect, 

Casilla de Correo 1859, Asunción, Paraguay

M. Florentín, Ing. Agr. MSc., DIA, Campo Experimental de Choré, Proyecto Conservación 

de Suelos MAG-GTZ, Casilla de Correo 1859, Asunción, Paraguay

K. Moriya, Ing. Agr. MSc., DEAG, Coordinador Contraparte, Proyecto Conservación de 

Suelos MAG-GTZ, Casilla de Correo 1859, Asunción, Paraguay
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 101

High rainfall and wind intensities prevailing in the 

tropics and subtropics are generally associated, under 

intensive and repeated tillage, with soil loss rates (due 

to wind or water erosion) that are higher than natural 

soil regeneration. This results in loss of nutrients and 

organic matter and in diminishing yields over time.

Under tropical and subtropical conditions, intensive 

and repeated tillage will generally damage the soil 

structure and lead to excessively high soil temperatures. This will have negative effects on root growth, 

soil flora, and fauna (soil biological processes) and 

on soil moisture resulting in diminishing yields over 

time.

Any agricultural or livestock production system in 

which important losses of nutrients occur through 

extraction without reposition (for example, soil exploitation) through volatilization (for example, regular 

burning), and/or through leaching (for example, fallow 

periods without crops), is not sustainable and results 

in poor soils and farmers.

Additionally soil carbon is lost very fast to the atmosphere (as carbon dioxide) after the soil is intensively 

tilled. This results in unacceptable CO2 emissions into 

the atmosphere, and instead of carbon being deposited in 

the soil, improving its fertility, tillage contributes to the 

greenhouse effect and to the global warming of the planet. 

(Kern and Johnson 1993 a and b, Reikosky 2000).

In summary, the unavoidable negative effects of intensive and repeated soil tillage in the tropics and subtropics 

on organic matter content, soil erosion, soil structure, 

soil temperature, soil moisture, water infiltration, soil 

flora and fauna (soil biological processes) and loss of 

nutrients, result in chemical, physical and biological soil 

degradation. This results in diminishing yields over time 

and in productivity losses of the soil and leads to poor 

soils and farmers.

As a consequence of the laws of diminishing productivity of tropical soils, sustainability of agricultural 

or livestock production cannot be achieved as long as 

repeated and intensive soil tillage is performed in the 

tropics and subtropics. Nor can sustainability be achieved 

as long as the soil is exploited without reposition of 

nutrient losses through leaching and/or extractions that 

occur with harvests, and as long as frequent burning of 

fields is performed.

Analysis of the Laws of Diminishing 

Yields

Any agricultural or livestock production system that 

contributes to constantly reducing the organic matter 

content of the soil is not sustainable and results in poor 

soils and farmers.

3.

4.

5.

1.

Soil organic carbon is the soil attribute most consistently reported in long-term studies and is a keystone 

soil quality indicator, being inextricably linked to 

other physical, chemical, and biological soil quality 

indicators (Reeves 1997). Soil organic matter may be 

one of the most important soil quality characteristics in 

relation to tillage because of its influence on other soil 

physical, chemical and biological properties (Cannel 

and Hawes 1994).

Due to the fact that the cation exchange capacity of 

most tropical soils is very low (Sánchez 1976), organic 

matter is much more important for storing nutrients 

in the tropics than in temperate regions. Therefore the 

efficiency of mineral fertilizers is greatly reduced if 

organic matter is not added at the same time. On the 

other hand, it is necessary to consider that organic 

matter is mineralized about five times more rapidly in 

the tropics than in temperate regions. Consequently, 

the organic matter content of the soil is of overriding 

importance in relation to soil fertility in the tropics 

and subtropics.

Therefore we can state that any agricultural production system that does not add sufficient organic matter 

and/or gradually reduces the organic matter content 

of the soil below an adequate level is not site-appropriate, will result in soil degradation, and is not 

sustainable.

Under tropical and subtropical conditions intensive 

and repeated tillage will generally mineralize (reduce) 

organic matter at rates higher than the potential for 

repositioning. This results in a decreasing organic 

matter content of the soil and diminishing crop yields 

over time.

Soil tillage results in rapid mineralization of organic 

matter stored in the soil, liberating nitrogen that will 

be available for plants. This can lead to an increase 

in yield for a few years. However, when soil tillage is 

performed under favorable conditions for mineralization of organic matter (heat, humidity, good aeration) 

leaving the soil under fallow (bare), valuable nitrate reserves are lost by lixiviation (washing into deeper soil 

layers), without crops being able to utilize them.

Once organic matter has been consumed, more nitrogen cannot be liberated and crop yields remain low. 

The result is a depleted soil, where the indispensable 

organic matter is missing.

The long-term influence (100 years) of soil preparation on the organic matter content in the Argentinean 

Pampas is described by Yamada (1999). Over this 

period a reduction in the organic matter content of the 

soil from 6.0 to 2.5 percent could be observed.

Here it is necessary to remember that in warmer climates organic matter reduction is processed much more 

2.
102 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

quickly, and reductions below 1 percent, sometimes as 

low as 0.2 percent can be reached in only one or two 

decades of intensive soil preparation.

Recent research by USDA Agricultural Research 

Service (ARS) shows that soil carbon is lost very fast 

– as carbon dioxide – within minutes after the soil is 

intensively tilled (plowed). After 19 days, total losses 

of carbon from plowed wheat fields were up to five 

times higher than for unplowed fields. In fact, the loss 

of carbon from the soil equaled the amount that had 

been added by the crop residue left on the field the 

previous season (Reikosky 2000). For the first time, 

scientists now know with certainty how tillage reduces 

the organic matter in the soil. It is the loss of carbon 

(as carbon dioxide – CO2) from the soil during tillage 

that lowers levels of organic matter (CTIC, 1996)

High rainfall and wind intensities prevailing in the 

tropics and subtropics are generally associated, under 

intensive and repeated tillage, with soil loss rates (due 

to wind or water erosion) that are higher than natural 

soil regeneration. This results in loss of nutrients and 

organic matter and in diminishing yields over time.

Occurrence of erosion can be considered the most 

important factor causing soil degradation. Under 

the concept of sustainability, the first negative factor 

in relation to productivity and profitability, and the 

major aggressor of the environment is soil erosion. 

Consequently, sustainability can only be achieved if 

soil erosion is stopped completely.

When agriculture is practiced on slopes in undulating 

topography, and rains of a certain intensity occur, soil 

preparation, especially with disc implements, results 

in bare soil, and this results in water erosion, or - in 

regions of heavy winds - in wind erosion.

It is estimated that soil losses in cropland in Latin 

America reach 10 to 60 t/ha/year (Steiner 1996, 

Derpsch and others 1991). Average soil losses in the 

State of Paraná, Brazil, where good soil conservation 

is practiced, are as high as 16 t/ha/year. In Paraguay, 

on 4000 m2 plots with 6 percent and 8 percent slope on 

high clay content Oxisols, average soil losses of 21.4 

t/ha were measured in conventional soil preparation, 

while only 633 kg/ha of soil loss were measured in 

no-tillage (Venialgo 1996). For the same experiment 

after extreme precipitation of 186 mm on June 9 and 

18, 1995, soil losses of 46.5 t/ha were measured under 

conventional tillage, as compared to soil losses of only 

99 kg/ha under no-tillage (both plots on 8 percent 

slopes). This resulted in 470 times higher soil losses 

when soil was prepared. (Venialgo 1996)

The high losses from agricultural soils have to be 

compared with consideration given to the annual rates 

of soil regeneration that are estimated to be not more 

than 250 to 500 kg/ha/year. Some scientists accept that 

3.

natural soil regeneration may reach 1000 kg/ha/year. 

When soil losses are higher than natural soil regeneration rates, sustainable agriculture is not possible.

Recent studies show that soil erosion is a selective 

process, with the most fertile soil particles taken away. 

Eroded soil sediments usually contain several times 

more nutrients than the soils they originated from 

(Stocking 1988).

Research has shown that soil cover is the most important factor that influences water infiltration into 

the soil, thus reducing runoff and erosion (Mannering 

and Meyer 1963). Under conventional tillage, lower 

infiltration rates have been measured by comparison 

with no-tillage (Roth 1985), and this results in a drastic 

increase of erosion when the soil is tilled.

Under tropical and subtropical conditions, intensive 

and repeated tillage will generally damage the soil 

structure and lead to excessively high soil temperatures. 

This will have negative effects on root growth, soil 

flora, and fauna (soil biological processes) and on soil 

moisture resulting in diminishing yields over time.

In conventional tillage, lower soil moisture content 

and higher soil temperatures as well as lower aggregate stability have been measured (Kemper and 

Derpsch 1981, Sidiras and Pavan 1986, Derpsch and 

others 1991).

Research shows enough evidence that lower biological activity occurs when the soil is intensively 

tilled by comparison with a field that is not tilled. 

Microorganisms will die because of famine under a 

bare soil system because they will not find organic 

substances at the surface to supply them with food. 

In addition, the less favorable soil moisture and temperature conditions under conventional tillage have 

a negative effect on microorganisms of the soil. For 

these reasons fewer earthworms, arthropods, (acarina, 

collembola, insects), fewer microorganisms (rhyzobia, 

bacteria, actinomicetes), and also fewer fungi and 

micorrhyza are found under conventional tillage conditions than under no-tillage conditions (Kemper and 

Derpsch1981, Kronen 1984, Voss and Sidiras 1985).

Any agricultural or livestock production system in 

which important losses of nutrients occur through 

extraction without reposition (for example, soil exploitation) through volatilization (for example, regular 

burning), and/or through leaching (for example, fallow 

periods without crops), is not sustainable and results 

in poor soils and farmers.

When high amounts of nutrients are exported from 

fields with harvested crops (or animals), without reposition, depletion of nutrients will occur in the medium 

or long term. Regular burning is another reason for 

nutrient depletion from fields, because nutrients are 

lost through volatilization. Major nutrient losses also 

4.

5.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 103

occur from tilled fields which are left fallow without 

a crop in the short, medium, or long term. As no roots 

are present that could prevent the downward movement of nutrients, these are lost through leaching 

into deeper soil layers, where they are out of reach 

of annual crops.

What Do We Conclude From the Laws 

of Diminishing Yields?

First of all we conclude that plowing and soil tillage 

are in opposition to sustainable land use in the tropics 

and subtropics.

Secondly, we conclude that we have to change the 

traditional farming practice of tilling the soil. We need a 

new production system that does not show the negative 

consequences of tilling the soil.

Thirdly, we can conclude that conservation tillage and 

especially no-tillage appear to be the production systems 

that can replace the traditional practice in small, medium, 

and large-scale agriculture. Why?

There is enough scientific evidence from warmer 

and increasingly also from temperate areas showing: a) 

that tillage is not necessary to produce a crop, b) that 

no-tillage has positive effects on chemical, physical 

and biological soil properties in comparison with conventional soil preparation, improving soil fertility over 

time, c) that no-tillage and conservation tillage save 

time, labor and fuel, and show higher economic returns 

than conventional tillage, and d) that no-tillage is a very 

efficient tool for controlling erosion and therefore it is 

environmentally and socially desirable.

It is now generally accepted that conservation tillage 

systems offer numerous benefits that intensive tillage 

systems cannot match. These advantages have been 

summarized as follows (ISTRO, 1997):

Reduced labor requirements

Time savings

Reduced machinery wear

Fuel savings

Improved long-term productivity

Improved surface water quality

Reduced soil erosion

Greater soil moisture retention

Improved water infiltration

 Decreased soil compaction

 Improved soil tilth

 More wildlife

 Reduced release of carbon gases

 Reduced air pollution

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

Adoption of No-tillage

The superiority of no-tillage over conventional tillage 

practices is mirrored in high rates of adoption of this new 

technology. No-tillage is now being practiced on more 

than 16 million ha in Argentina, on 21.8 million ha in 

Brazil, on 23.7 million ha in the USA and on approximately 90 million ha worldwide. In the MERCOSUR 

countries (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, and Uruguay) 

the technology has seen a 59-fold increase between 1987 

and the year 2004 (from 670,000 ha to 39.65 million ha) 

(Derpsch and Benites 2004). This shows that farmers are 

satisfied with the technology, that they feel the numerous 

benefits of the system, and that profitability is higher than 

with the conventional tillage systems.

On the other hand, 86 percent of no-tillage is practiced 

in the Americas (North and South) and 10 percent in 

Australia, but only 3.6 percent is practiced on the three 

other continents Europe, Asia, and Africa. There is a huge 

potential for bringing this soil-conserving, productivityenhancing production system to those areas where it is 

still not practiced.

With oil prices forcing tillage cost ever higher, and 

the proven benefits of no-tillage in reducing costs, erosion, greenhouse gas emissions, etc, it is becoming a 

worldwide imperative that this technology be practiced 

by small, medium, and large-scale farmers all over the 

world. If socioeconomic or agro-ecological reasons make 

the use of no-tillage difficult, other forms of conservation 

tillage such as minimum tillage will be the second-best 

choice.

References

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practices in relation to sustainable crop production with 

special reference to temperate climates. Soil & Tillage 

Res., 30. 245-282

CTIC, 1996: Conservation Technology Information Centre, 

CTIC Partners , April/May 1996, Vol. 14 N° 3.

Derpsch, R. and Benites, J. R., 2004: Agricultura 

Conservacionista no Mundo. Paper to be presented at 

the XV Reuniao Brasileira de Ciencia do Solo, 25 – 31. 

July 2004, Santa Maria, RS, Brazil (Proceedings to be 

published)

Derpsch, R., Roth, C.H., Sidiras, N., Köpke, U., 1991: Controle 

da erosão no Paraná, Brasil: Sistemas de cobertura do solo, 

plantio direto e preparo conservacionista do solo. Deutsche 

Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ), TZVerag, Rossdorf.

Derpsch, R., Moriya, K., 1998: Implications of no-tillage 

versus soil preparation on sustainability of agricultural 

production. Selected papers of the 9th Conference of the 

International Soil Conservation Organization ISCO, Bonn. 

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Verlag, Reiskirchen, 1998, p 1179 - 1186

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(ISTRO), INFO-EXTRA, Vol. 3 No 1, January 1997.

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in 1978 and 1979 to control erosion by cover crops and 

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rates of surface mulch on infiltration and erosion; Soil Sci.. 

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An explanatory note. ISRIC, UNEP, Wageningen.

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soil quality in continuous cropping systems. Soil & Tillage 

Research, 43 (1997) 131 – 167.

Reikosky, D. C., 2000: Impactos do revolvimento do solo em 

plantio direto. Resumos, 7o Encontro Nacional de Plantio 

Direto na Palha, Iguassu Falls, Brazil. p 97 - 101

Roth, C. H., 1985: Infiltrabilität von Latossolo-RoxoBöden in Nordparaná, Brasilien, in Feldversuchen zur 

Erosionskontrolle mit verschiedenen Bodenbearbeitun

gssystenen und Rotationen. Göttinger Bodenkundliche 

Berichte, 83, 1 -104.

Sidiras, N. And Pavan, M.A., 1986. Influencia do sistema de 

manejo na temperatura do solo. R. bras. Ci. Solo, 10, 181 

-184.

Steiner, K., 1996. Causes of Soil Degradation and Development 

approaches to Sustainable Soil Management, Pilot Project 

Sustainable Soil Management, GTZ Eschborn, Margraf 

Verlag, 50 p.

Venialgo, N., 1996: IN: Derpsch, R., Florentín, M.A., Moriya, 

K., 2000: Importancia de la siembra directa para alcanzar la 

sustentabilidad agrícola. Proyecto Conservación de Suelos 

MAG – GTZ, San Lorenzo, Paraguay, p 17

Voss, M. And Sidiras, N., 1985. Nodulação da soja em plantio 

direto em comparação com plantio convencional. Pesq. 

agropec. bras., 20, 775 - 782.

Sanchez, P. A., 1976. Properties and Management of Soils in 

the Tropics, Wiley, New York.

Stocking, M., 1988. Quantifying the on-site impact of erosion. 

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Generations, Proceedings of the Fifth International Soil 

Conservation Conference. Dep. of Land Development, 

Bangkok, pp. 137-161

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 105

Introduction

An assessment of threats to biodiversity is widely recognized as a critical component of effective conservation 

planning (Groves 2003, Margules and Pressey 2000); six 

of the ten steps in site conservation planning proposed 

by Poiani and others (1998) are related to some aspect of 

conservation threats. Despite the widespread recognition 

of their importance, threat assessments have not been 

well understood or widely implemented in most parts of 

the world (Groves 2003). Moreover, until only recently 

(Salafsky and others 2004), there have been scant studies 

that compare different methodologies and approaches to 

conducting threat assessments (Rouget and others 2003). 

This is particularly true for threat assessments across 

broad geographic areas, such as an ecoregion.

This paper is an attempt to fill that void. Based on a 

review of threat assessments (see table 1 for a summary 

of a selection of these), this paper proposes a five-step 

framework for conducting comprehensive ecoregional 

threat assessments: 1) identifying ecoregional threats; 2) 

assessing the impact of current threats; 3) assessing the 

impact of future threats; 4) analyzing and interpreting 

underlying causes; and 5) integrating threats data into 

conservation planning. Selected from an initial review 

of over a hundred threat-related studies, the following set 

is intended to be a representative sample, rather than an 

exhaustive catalogue. Each study included the following 

characteristics: they assessed actual threats (versus simply developing a conceptual model); they encompassed 

a broad geographic scale; and they focused on assessing 

threats to biodiversity. Table 1 summarizes the main elements of each of these studies.

Table 1 illustrates several points. First, many threat 

assessments only look at a small number of threats, 

rather than a full range of potential threats. Second, not 

all threat assessments are spatially explicit about where 

threats occur. Third, most indicate the impact of threats 

on biodiversity, although with widely ranging degrees 

of detail. Fourth, most include some form of future 

threat assessment, although the method of determining 

future threats varies considerably. Fifth, most did not 

fully assess the underlying causes of threats, although 

many touched upon them. Finally, in only some cases 

the results were explicitly used, or were expected to be 

used, as information to improve conservation planning 

and practice. The rest of this paper discusses these points 

more fully.

Identifying Ecoregional 

Threats

As highlighted in table 1, some threat assessments may 

consider a wide variety of threats. However, many others 

consider only a single threat (Rouget and others 2003). 

Some authors suggest that a more inclusive set of threats 

be considered as routine practice in conducting threat 

assessments. Curtin and others (2002), for example, note 

that the driver of rangeland ecology is far more complex 

than simply grazing, and therefore rangeland assessments 

must consider such factors as invasive species, global 

climate change, and fire, in addition to the intensity and 

distribution of grazing.

There are numerous approaches to developing a comprehensive set of threats, and every shortlist candidate has 

Toward a Framework for Conducting Ecoregional Threats 

Assessments

Jamison Ervin and Jeffrey Parrish

Abstract—Assessing threats to biodiversity is widely recognized as a critical step in 

conservation planning. While there have been recent advances in understanding how 

to assess threats at a site level, there has been relatively little consensus on how threats 

can be meaningfully assessed at an ecoregional scale. Drawing from numerous threat 

assessment studies, this paper offers a five-step framework for understanding the scope, 

purpose and components of a comprehensive, ecoregional-level threat assessment. The 

proposed framework includes the following components: 1) identifying threats within 

an ecoregion; 2) assessing the impact of current threats to biodiversity; 3) assessing the 

impact of future threats; 4) analyzing the root causes of these threats; and 5) integrating 

threat-related information into conservation planning.
106 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. Table 1. Summary of selected broad-scale threat assessments. Assess Results Threat impacts on Assess Assess clearly distribution	 specific	 cumulative	 Assess	 underlying	 linked to Geographic Threats was spatially biodiversity impacts future threat conservation Author/s area included explicit elements of threats threat causes planning Clarke & Harris, Arctic & Pollution, energy, climate change, no yes yes yes no no 2003 Antarctic fishing Curtin et al., Chihuahuan Grazing, fragmentation, no somewhat yes somewhat yes yes 2002 Borderlands. development, protected status US SW and N. Mexico Dirnböck et al., Juan Invasive species yes yes no yes no yes 2003 Fernandez Archipelago, Chile Kramer & Mesoamerican Coastal development, tourism, yes yes somewhat yes yes yes Kramer, 2002 Caribbean energy, port management, Reef fishing Laurance & Amazon Forest fragmentation, El Niño no no yes yes yes no Williamson, Basin drought, fire 2001 Maddock & North Zululand, Protected status, agriculture, yes yes yes somewhat no yes Benn, 2000 South Africa development Neke and South African Mining, agriculture, afforestation, yes yes yes somewhat no yes du Plessis, 2004 grasslands urban development Reyers, 2004 Limpollo Cultivation, afforestation no somewhat somewhat yes no yes Province, South Africa Rouget et al., Cape Floristic Agriculture, urbanization, yes yes yes yes no yes 2003 Region, South invasive species Africa Stoms, 2000 California Urban development, roads, yes yes somewhat yes no yes protected status Theobald, 2003 Colorado Roads, housing yes yes yes yes no yes Weber & Wolf, Maryland Protected status, urban yes somewhat yes yes no yes 2000 density, legal development, transportation protection Stoms, 2000 California Urban development, yes yes somewhat yes no yes roads, protected status Theobald, 2003 Colorado Roads, housing density, yes yes yes yes no yes legal protection Weber & Wolf, Maryland Protected status, urban yes somewhat yes yes no yes 2000 development, transportation
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 107

its own proponents. Theobald’s (2003) primary candidate 

is inadequate land use planning, while Zalba’s (2004) are 

habitat loss and exotic invasions. Neke and du Plessis 

(2004) and Clarke and Harris (2003) favor global climate 

change, which they claim will trump all other threats in 

certain parts of the globe. In order to develop a logical 

framework for organizing threats, several authors have 

proposed a comprehensive taxonomy of threats. For 

example, Wilcove and others (1998) propose habitat 

destruction, alien species, over-harvest, pollution and 

disease as the five most important threats to biodiversity, 

and Dinerstein and others (2000) propose habitat conversion, habitat degradation and wildlife exploitation as an 

organizing framework for capturing threats. Salafsky 

and others (2004) propose one of the more comprehensive threat taxonomies, including habitat conversion, 

transportation infrastructure, abiotic resource use, consumptive and non-consumptive biological resource use, 

pollution, invasive species (including pests, pathogens 

and disease), and large scale modifications of natural 

processes (for example, global climate change, fire regime alteration). Each of these general threat categories 

would be translated into a specific threat, appropriate to 

the regional and biophysical context.

Using a consistent taxonomy would encourage researchers to consider all potential threats, rather than 

a select few. Bryant and others (1998), for example, 

assessed global threats to coral reefs, including coastal 

development, marine-based pollution, over-exploitation, 

inland pollution and erosion, but not coral bleaching associated with global climate change. In 1998, the same 

year the study was published, coral bleaching devastated 

16 percent of the world’s reefs (Wilkinson 2000). A 

comprehensive taxonomy of threats would also enable 

a better understanding of the extent, severity and spatial 

distribution of a wide range of threats by enabling crosscutting analyses.

Many researchers characterize ‘threat’ as a future state, 

defined as a degree of vulnerability, risk or likelihood 

of change. Margules and Pressey (2000) define a threat 

as the risk of a conservation area being transformed to 

another land use, and Rouget and others (2003) as the 

likelihood of losing a portion of extant biodiversity. 

Numerous researchers have used this approach to assessing threats by developing suitability indices and then 

quantifying the likelihood of threat occurring from low 

to high (Maddock and Benn 2000, Stoms 2000, Rouget 

and others 2003).

Other researchers define threats as a transformation 

that has already occurred. Neke and du Plessis (2004), for 

example, describe threats in South Africa by quantifying 

the spatial extent of forestry, agriculture, grazing, mining and urban expansion. Similarly, Maddock and Benn 

(2000) describe threat as the degree of transformation 

of unprotected and untransformed land in South Africa. 

They acknowledge that it would be useful to calculate the 

degree of future transformation, but cite lack of available 

data as the major constraint in doing so.

Regardless of whether they look at the degree of 

vulnerability and risk in the future, or the degree of 

transformation in the past, most authors ultimately define 

threat as either an event, “extrinsic human and stochastic 

natural events” (Araújo and others 2002), or an activity, 

“any human activity or process that has caused, is causing 

or may cause the destruction, degradation and/or impairment of biodiversity” (Salafsky and others 2004).

Defining a threat at a site level can be fairly straightforward. The Nature Conservancy, for example, assesses 

“stresses” (processes or events with direct impacts on 

biodiversity, such as stream sedimentation) and “sources 

of stress” (the actions of entities causing the stress, such 

as agriculture). In this model, the relationship between 

a threat and its impact on a specific species is clear. 

However, at an ecoregional level, this relationship becomes less so. Most ecoregional threats have multiple 

and complex relationships with innumerable species 

and systems. Groves (2003) acknowledges this problem, when he states that in theory, threats should be tied 

to specific conservation targets, but in practice, most 

regional planning efforts lack the prerequisite detailed, 

site-based data and knowledge.

Therefore, a slightly different approach to defining 

threats may be needed when working at large spatial 

scales. One approach to large-scale threats is to assess 

the degree of legal protection as a surrogate for protection 

against many threats, particularly land use conversion 

(for example, Theobald 2003). However, there are several 

flaws with this approach. The phenomenon of ‘paper 

parks’ is widely recognized (Ervin 2003), and in some 

cases, legal protection can even accelerate biodiversity 

loss (Curtin and others 2002). While protection and 

management status can be a useful measure of threat, 

they are only weakly correlated with vulnerability (Stoms 

2000), and therefore threats must be inextricably linked 

with their impacts on biodiversity.

Reyers (2004) notes a recent trend away from linking threats to specific species, toward linking them with 

higher levels of biodiversity (for example, ecosystems). 

Conservation International takes the opposite tack; their 

“Living Landscape” program links threats to a small 

handful of “landscape species,” with the reasoning 

that a decline in the viability of wide-ranging species 

mirrors a decline in the integrity of the landscape itself 

(Sanderson and others 2002). Neke and du Plessis (2004) 

offer another alternative; their study assessed the degree 

of land conversion from agriculture, grazing, mining 
108 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

and urbanization in South Africa, and linked these with 

broad changes in composition, landscape structure and 

ecological functions.

Clearly each approach has strengths and disadvantages, and no single approach is likely to be adequate to 

gauge the impacts of threats on biodiversity. Therefore, 

a broader framework that integrates each of these approaches may be warranted, one that includes the status 

of coarse-filter biodiversity, a full array of threats, and 

the legal protection and management effectiveness of an 

area. In capturing both a full array of threats, as well as 

their multiple and diffuse impacts on biodiversity, such 

a framework could provide a more thorough definition 

of the threats to, and effective conservation of, biodiversity.

Assessing the Impacts of 

Current Threats

In assessing the impacts of various threats, researchers 

have used qualitative assessments of scope, severity and 

sometimes irreversibility, combined to give a score, or 

ranking for each threat, typically from low to very high 

(Poiani and others 2003, Clarke and Harris, 2003, Ervin 

2003). Such qualitative assessments are simple to use, 

require minimal data, and are widely accepted, but are 

often interpreted and applied inconsistently (Todd and 

Burgman, 1998).

While assigning a qualitative rank to a single threat 

at a single site is a relatively easy, if limited, process, 

combining multiple threats across multiple sites within 

an ecoregion is far more complex. Conservation planners have generally taken two approaches: arithmetic 

and rule-based procedures (Salafsky and others 2004). 

Ervin (2003), for example, adds the rank of each threat 

to create a cumulative threat index, while Kramer and 

Kramer (2002) and Bryant and others (1998) use “rules” 

(for example, at least one ‘high’ threat results in a cumulative ‘high’ score, four ‘low’ scores equal a cumulative 

‘low’ overall score, etc.). Both systems portray a general 

picture of the overall threat load of each site, but they 

may be misleading. Some threats may appear to have 

a low score individually, but in combination may have 

a far more pernicious effect on biodiversity. Indeed, 

Rouget and others (2003) argue that there is no clear 

understanding of how to quantitatively combine threats 

to arrive at a satisfactory value of threat intensity. In 

order to improve the utility of additive and rule-based 

approaches, four additional considerations are proposed 

below: 1) spatially-defined threatsheds; 2) target-specific 

analyses; 3) an assessment of synergies between threats; 

and 4) an integration of ecological thresholds.

The spatial configuration of threats are seldom explicit 

(Todd and Burgman 1998), and only recently have threat 

assessments begun to identify threat patterns in relation 

to biodiversity patterns (Rouget and others 2003). Yet 

spatially explicit threat assessments can be critical in 

understanding the impact of threats on biodiversity; they 

enable better predictions of the magnitude and type of 

biodiversity loss, better priority setting, and better conservation triage (Rouget and others 2003). Furthermore, 

if they capture temporal patterns (as recommended by 

Salafsky and others 2004), threat maps can enable better 

prevention and mitigation of certain threats (for example, 

restricting recreation during sensitive breeding times). 

For example, Travis (2003) argues that the distribution 

of forest fragmentation is at least equally as important as 

the extent of fragmentation in determining the impact on 

forest species, and Stoms (200) argues that road density 

indices seldom explicitly consider the spatial patterns of 

roads, and typically assume that all road segments have 

an equal effect on biodiversity.

By creating map layers of the distribution and severity of different threats (see, for example, Kramer and 

Kramer, 2002, Neke and du Plessis, 2004), conservation 

planners can identify where threats overlap spatially. 

When these overlays are then combined with maps of the 

distribution of biodiversity, the resulting analysis can be 

a starting point for more precisely combining the effects 

of multiple threats.

A second approach to combining multiple threats is to 

gauge the cumulative impacts of threats to a particular 

species or system. Travis (2003), for example, argues 

that different species react very differently to the same 

threats—specialist species with low colonization ability 

and poor dispersal are far more prone to extinction from 

global climate change than wide-ranging species, and 

therefore cumulative threat impacts must be assessed species by species. Similarly, Sanderson and others (2002) 

advocate evaluating the overall level of impact from all 

threats on focal landscape species. Theobald (2003) takes 

a slightly different approach; he evaluates the cumulative impact from roads and development by land cover 

type and natural communities. Whether by species or by 

systems, measuring the cumulative impact of different 

threats on specific biodiversity elements can provide an 

alternative approach to combining threats.

This approach may entail an additional step—a better 

understanding of the complex and synergistic interactions 

between threats. Knowledge of how different threats 

interact remains elusive; Dinerstein and others (2002) 

cite this challenge as a major handicap to conducting 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 109

ecoregional threat assessments. Others, such as Clarke and 

Harris (2003), acknowledge that synergistic relationships 

exist, but decline to describe or quantify them; they simply note that the capacity of Arctic and Antarctic marine 

ecosystems to withstand cumulative impacts of multiple 

threats acting synergistically is a grave concern.

Nonetheless, some recent studies have made headway in teasing apart the complex relationships between 

interacting threats. Travis developed at a model that 

combined the impacts of global climate change and 

habitat loss on hypothetical species with different 

characteristics. He concluded that some species could 

survive either a certain amount of habitat loss or a certain rate of global climate change, but they would likely 

become extinct where these threats occurred in tandem. 

Laurance and Williamson (2001) analyzed threats from 

logging and El Niño drought years in the Amazon, 

and concluded that vulnerability to fire increased dramatically when both threats occurred. Curtin and others 

(2002) assessed threats to grasslands and concluded 

that combined grazing, invasive species and an altered 

fire regime often resulted in a type conversion from 

grassland to shrub-dominated communities, and that 

these conversions occurred in a dynamic, non-linear, 

unpredictable fashion.

Finally, a better understanding of ecological thresholds could improve threat impact assessment methods. 

For example, Laurance and Williamson (2001) suggests 

that because of feedback loops between deforestation, 

fragmentation, regional drying and wildfires, there 

are thresholds of deforestation beyond which it may 

become difficult or impossible to halt biodiversity 

loss. Ecological thresholds could be incorporated into 

the assignation of single or cumulative threats into a 

particular category (for example, a “low” score equals 

well below a threshold, and a “very high” score equals 

past a threshold, etc.).

Given the uneven distribution of threats and their 

range of severity across a landscape (Araújo and others 

2002), ecoregional assessments should strive to capture 

this distribution, rather than simply seek an average threat 

ranking across an entire area. One way to do this is to 

develop threshold-based categories for each threat. For 

example, a threshold for fragmentation could include six 

categories (highly fragmented, moderately fragmented, 

somewhat fragmented, somewhat intact, mostly intact, 

fully intact), based on common fragmentation indices. 

Numerous authors have proposed similar types of threat 

categorization (Dinerstein and others 2000, Reyers 

2004). Such categories, which would ideally be quantifiable, repeatable and clearly linked to biodiversity 

viability, would enable the consistent interpretation of 

threat-related data over time, and would enable threats 

to be compared from one region to the next.

Assessing Future Threats

Assessing the likelihood of multiple threats, and predicting the impact they will have on species and systems 

will likely pose major challenges. Travis (2003) claims 

that predicting the impact of global climate change and 

habitat loss is one of the most vexing challenges facing 

biologists. Yet an assessment of the degree and impact 

of future changes is critical to effective conservation 

planning; not only are current threats poor indicators of 

future threats (Groves 2003), but they do not provide the 

full information needed to develop strategies, prioritize 

conservation areas, and sequence conservation actions. 

Furthermore, Rouget and others (2003) argue that conservation plans that do not adequately consider future threats 

cannot fully plan for the persistence of biodiversity with 

any degree of confidence.

There are three closely related approaches to assessing 

future threats: 1) assessing the likelihood, probability and 

risk of a threat occurring and/or of a species becoming 

extinct; 2) developing predictive models for the likely 

spatial configuration of threats; and 3) developing multiple threat scenarios.

Researchers have taken a variety of approaches in assessing future threats. Some, (Clarke and Harris 2003), 

simply rank future threats from most likely to have a high 

impact on biodiversity to least likely. Some (Kramer and 

Kramer 2002, Ervin 2003) include a qualitative assessment of the future likelihood as a variable in analyzing 

each threat. And some (Weber and Wolf 2000, Neke 

and du Plessis 2004) assess future threat by combining 

a qualitative ranking of threat with the impact of that 

threat on biodiversity.

Statistical, predictive modeling is another approach 

that can complement these qualitative, rule-based threat 

analyses, as the two approaches have shown a high spatial 

correlation, and expert judgment may catch nuances that 

a statistical model may miss, particularly at small scales 

(Rouget and others 2003). Such models may combine 

recent and/or historical data, social factors, biophysical 

features, and species life histories. Dirnböck and others 

(2003), for example, used invasive species data from the 

1830s onward, and combined these data with geographic 

features, to develop a model of the rate and distribution 

of future invasions. Such information can be critically 

important, particularly with a threat such as invasive species, where early detection and prevention are paramount 

(Zalba 2004). Rouget and others (2003) complicate the 
110 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

equation, however, by calling for models that can incorporate soil disturbance, agriculture, and changing fire 

and nutrient regimes—all factors that can dramatically 

increase the spread of invasive species. Researchers have 

also developed models that incorporate socio-economic 

factors, patterns of existing land ownership, census data, 

and environmental conditions, to develop predictive 

models of the rate and distribution of rural sprawl (Stoms 

2000, Theobald 2003).

There are limitations to the accuracy and therefore 

utility of predictive models. Many do not account for 

fine-scale data (for example, town zoning ordinances, 

detailed environmental conditions), or such data may 

simply not exist (Rouget and others 2003, Zalba, 2004, 

Clarke and Harris, 2003). Perhaps more importantly, a 

single model typically shows only one potential outcome, 

whereas threats interact in a highly dynamic and nonlinear fashion, and may have multiple potential outcomes. 

Theobald (2003), for example, discusses how a simple 

model of the threat from housing development could 

have complex interactions with the threat from altered 

fire regime; at a certain housing density, fire restoration 

becomes impractical or impossible.

The creation of multiple models and scenarios may 

be one way to show the various relationships between 

future threats, and may provide more insight than simple 

models (Groves 2003). Reyers (2004), for example, looks 

at future land use scenarios in South Africa, incorporating more than just land suitability, but also a range of 

potential scenarios based on water availability, laws governing water use, and drought resistant crops. Multiple 

threat models and scenarios, particularly those that show 

the potential impacts of land use laws, ordinances and 

policies, can be a powerful conservation planning tool 

by enabling policy makers to see the consequences of 

their actions.

Analyzing and Interpreting 

Threats

Relatively few studies have attempted to quantify or 

even identify the drivers of threat (Rouget and others 

2003). Furthermore, these drivers, which include the 

socio-economic forces and circumstances that trigger 

threats and resulting loss of biodiversity, are generally not 

well understood, and where they are analyzed, are mostly 

limited to a few local factors (Stedman-Edwards 2000). 

Conservation organizations are leading the development 

of tools to systematically assess these drivers, including The Nature Conservancy, which conducts situation 

analyses as part of its site conservation planning process 

(Poiani and others 2003), and the World Wildlife Fund, 

which conducts root causes analyses as part of its policy 

development strategy (Stedman-Edwards 2000).

The primary tool that both organizations use for conducting these analyses is a conceptual model that shows 

the complex relationships, multi-directional linkages 

and dynamic interactions between social, economic and 

ecological dimensions. Understanding these complexities is important, since the causal linkages rarely provide 

precise predictive models (Stedman-Edwards 2000). 

Kramer and Kramer’s (2002) study of threats in the 

Mesoamerican Caribbean Reef illustrates one example 

of a root causes analysis. The threats of over-fishing, 

eutrophication and habitat loss from agricultural and 

urban expansion are caused by a web of over a dozen 

root causes, ranging from human population growth and 

migration to poor law enforcement and inadequate legal 

jurisdiction over resources. Stedman-Edwards (2000) 

propose that the majority of root causes fall into one of 

five categories: 1) demographic change; 2) inequality 

and poverty; 3) public policies, markets and politics; 4) 

macroeconomic structures and policies; and 5) social 

change and development biases.

Incorporating Threats Into 

Conservation Planning

As discussed earlier, threat assessments are an integral 

and critical component of both site conservation planning and broad-scale, systematic conservation planning 

processes. At an ecoregional level, threat assessments can 

be integrated into conservation planning processes and 

used for a variety of purposes, including: 1) to develop 

ecoregion-wide strategies; 2) to set geographic priorities; 3) to sequence and prioritize conservation areas and 

strategies; and 4) to measure changes in threat status over 

time. An assessment of existing threats can be used to 

identify where and how severely multiple threats occur 

across the landscape, and help in formulating appropriate 

ecoregion-wide strategies, such as land protection, management strategies, restoration and monitoring (Groves 

2003, Poiani and others 2003).

A number of studies have integrated threats into 

geographic priority-setting processes (Theobald 2003, 

Reyers 2004). These studies primarily focus on a measure 

of future threat, usually expressed in terms of vulnerability, as well as a measure of conservation value, expressed 

in terms of conservation value, focusing on rarity, endemism, species richness, protected status and/or ecological 

integrity (Stoms 2000, Groves 2003). The resulting 

information enables planners to prioritize areas most at 

risk. Maddock and Benn (2000), for example, describes 

how species, vegetation types, ecological processes, 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 111

legal protection and threats from land transformation 

were combined to identify “conservation worthy areas” 

in Zululand, South Africa.

A third and related use of threat assessments is to 

determine the timing of conservation actions; an assessment of urgency can help determine the relative 

sequence of geographic priorities and conservation actions (Araújo and others 2002). Groves (2003) describes 

this as a process of conservation triage, asserting that 

threat assessments are vital in identifying which areas 

will clearly benefit from immediate conservation actions, 

which ones are likely to persist if nothing is done, and 

which areas could, with sustained efforts, be feasibly 

restored over the long term. While such sequencing 

and prioritization efforts help to ensure efficient use of 

resources (Theobald 2003), this process also requires 

an understanding of the potential tradeoffs between 

restoring land versus preventing threats, high and low 

cost, effort and feasibility, and between differing conservation values (for example, high endemism versus 

high species richness).

Threat assessments can also be used to measure threat 

status over time. A measure of threat status can be taken at 

any given time by capturing the distribution and severity 

of current and future threats. Although few studies have 

done so, tracking the status of threats over time can be 

useful in several ways. Governments and conservation 

organizations can use threat status measures to assess 

the broad effectiveness of their threat abatement actions. 

Conservation planners can use threat status measures to 

reassess their programmatic and geographic priorities, as 

the conservation landscape shifts and new threats emerge. 

Conservation advocates can use threat status measures 

to communicate complex information about biodiversity 

in clear and compelling ways.

Conclusion

Many threat assessments cover some or most of the 

elements proposed in this paper; few cover all of them. 

A comprehensive threat assessment framework, such as 

the one proposed in table 2, could serve several purposes. 

It could enable conservation planners to be more explicit 

about which steps are not included in their assessments 

and why. It could serve to identify information and data 

Table 2. Elements of a comprehensive, broad-scale threat assessment.

Assess impact Assess Analyze and Incorporate threats into

Identify threats of threats future threats interpret threats conservation planning

Consider the broad Be spatially explicit Assess the likelihood of Develop conceptual Incorporate threats into

array of potential about the distribution existing threats to models that incorporate broad-scale strategy

threats, rather than of each threat, continue and new both socio-economic development

a small subset of creating multiple threats to occur drivers and biological

threats threat layers factors Use threats to determine

geographic priorities

The following is Be explicit about how Assess the risk of Explicitly show multiproposed as a each threat affects biodiversity elements to directional linkages of Use threat information to

minimum set of specific elements of threats, using suitability relationships between sequence and prioritize

threats to consider: biodiversity indices and statistical drivers and threats actions and geographies

predictors

-Habitat conversion Assess the synergies Explicitly link causal factors Track threat status over

-Transportation and interrelationships Develop predictive spatial and drivers of threats to time to measure change

infrastructure between different models for patterns of conservation strategies and enable adaptive

-Energy threats and their threat development in and actions management

development impacts on species the future

-Use and and systems

management of Develop multiple threat

biological Incorporate ecological predictions that incorporate

resources thresholds into different scenarios and

-Tourism and other impact assessments pathways, including

non-consumptive socio-economic factors

uses

-Invasive species, 

pests and 

pathogens

-Pollution

-Global climaterelated events and 

processe
112 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

gaps. Perhaps most importantly, it could encourage a 

more systematic and thorough approach to threat assessments, one that considers the multiple social, economic 

and ecological factors and the complex spatial and temporal dimensions of threats to biodiversity.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 113

Introduction

Along the Middle Rio Grande in New Mexico, 

between Cochiti Dam and Elephant Butte Reservoir, 

exotic woody plants have proliferated since their original 

introductions, altering the structure and composition of 

riparian plant communities and greatly increasing the 

frequency and severity of wildfire. Dead and downed 

wood and exotic salt cedar (Tamarix ramosissima) and 

Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia) are fuels that 

lead to high fire risk in the riparian woodland community of the Middle Rio Grande, referred to locally as the 

“bosque.” Salt cedar plants possess many stems and have 

high rates of stem mortality, resulting in accumulations 

of dense, dry dead branches (Hart, 2002). When dense 

salt cedar stands burn, the fires are often intense and fast 

moving. Salt cedar’s high flammability places native 

bosque flora and fauna at increased risk of mortality 

by fire. Native tree species inhabiting the middle Rio 

Grande, such as the Rio Grande cottonwood (Populus 

deltoides ssp. wislizeni) and Goodding’s Willow (Salix 

gooddingii) are not fire-adapted, cannot resist fire damage and do not respond with regenerative resilience to 

fires (Busch, 1995).

Land managers are in need of effective methods for 

reducing fuel loads and controlling exotic woody plants 

that minimize negative impacts on native plants, wildlife, and soils. To assist in meeting this challenge, the 

Albuquerque Laboratory of the USDA Forest Service’s 

Rocky Mountain Research Station agreed to monitor 

responses of various ecosystem components to fuel 

removal before and after application of treatments. Our 

interagency, collaborative project was initiated in 1999, 

with pre-treatment sampling occurring from 2000-2002. 

Treatments were initiated in 2003 and will continue 

through 2004. The study is designed to evaluate the effectiveness of three fuel reduction treatments and their 

effects on wildlife, soils, and hydrology, with the ultimate goal of providing land managers with information 

for designing and implementing future treatments. A 

Monitoring Bird Populations in Relation to Fuel Loads and 

Fuel Treatments in Riparian Woodlands with Tamarisk and 

Russian Olive Understories

Deborah M. Finch, Project Leader; June Galloway, Wildlife Biologist; and 

David Hawksworth, Biological Technician, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—Over the past decade, wild fire events in riparian bosque (forested) areas 

along the Middle Rio Grande between Elephant Butte and Albuquerque have increased 

dramatically owing to flood suppression and accumulation of dead wood and exotic 

Tamarisk and Russian olive. This problem culminated in a large wild fire in July 1993 

that resulted in the evacuation of hundreds of City of Albuquerque residents and captured the national media’s attention. Prior to this event, the Rocky Mountain Research 

Station, in collaboration with the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, City of 

Albuquerque Open Space, and Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, designed 

a study in 1999 to compare effectiveness of three methods of fuel removal for reducing 

fire risk, preventing re-occurrence of exotics, and restoring native habitats, plants and 

animals. A goal of managers is to preserve cottonwoods while reducing or eliminating 

Tamarisk and Russian olive stems, so study sites were selected that had cottonwood 

overstories and Tamarisk and olive understories. As part of this study, the population 

and nesting responses of breeding bird species have been evaluated prior to and following fuel removal treatments. Our talk reports on 1) the numbers and kinds of bird 

species inhabiting bosque habitats with cottonwood overstories and varying amounts 

of Tamarisk and Russian olive, 2) nest substrate use and nesting success of selected bird 

species prior to treatment, and 3) preliminary results after the first year of mechanical 

treatments. In addition, we predict short-term and long-term responses of birds and 

plant communities following treatments.
114 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Memorandum of Understanding signed in 1999 documents participation and contributions of several partners 

other than the Rocky Mountain Research Station, including Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, 

Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD), 

City of Albuquerque Open Space (COA), Bureau of 

Land Management (BLM), New Mexico Department 

of Environment (NMDE), and NRCS Plant Materials 

Center (Los Lunas, NM).

Our study team is monitoring and evaluating the 

responses of groundwater, soils, vegetation, bird, bat, 

reptile, and amphibian populations to three fuel reduction 

treatments at 12 research sites. In this paper, we report 

on the status of treatments and describe some of the pretreatment and early treatment findings as they pertain to 

the avifaunal component of the study.

Methods

Study Design

Site locations range from the southern portion of 

Albuquerque city limits to the Bosque del Apache 

National Wildlife Refuge (USFWS) 20 miles south of 

Socorro. We are using a randomized block statistical 

design with four sites (a control and three treatments) 

identified in each of three blocks. Randomized block 

designs are appropriate when a population of experimental units has recognizable structure, in this case riparian 

cottonwood galleries, and one can utilize that structure 

in assigning treatments (Williams et al., 2001). The three 

blocks are labeled North, Middle, and South. Sites are 

labeled from one to four in each block, for example, 

South 1 (SO1), South 2 (SO2), South 3 (SO3), and South 

4 (SO4). Two exceptions, Middle 7, MO7 and North 7, 

NO7, are numbered in accordance with a broader study. 

Sites extend 129 km from southern edge of the city of 

Albuquerque south to the Bosque del Apache National 

Wildlife Refuge.

The Rocky Mountain Research Station worked 

with the several land managers; the MRGCD (Middle 

Rio Grande Conservancy District), COA (City of 

Albuquerque), USFWS (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service), 

and the NMSP (New Mexico State Parks), to determine 

which sites along the river would be suitable research 

areas. The following criteria were used for research site 

selection: 1) sites had visibly-high fuel loads as identified by landowners and NM Environment Department 

(Wicklund and Najmi 1998); 2) the site had relatively 

homogenous vegetation, at least 20 hectares in size; 3) 

sites had a cottonwood overstory and an understory with 

exotic woody plants; 4) sites were accessible by road; 5) 

access and block design treatments were permitted by 

landowner; and 6) sites were relatively undisturbed by 

grazing, vehicles, and other uses. Each study site has an 

average size (n = 12 sites) of 20.4 hectares.

Each management agency is responsible for carrying 

out treatments on the land that they manage in accordance with the MOU. Treatment types were designed to 

decrease the risk of catastrophic fire by greatly reducing 

fuel levels. The primary fuels are comprised of dead 

and down wood and exotic woody plants. Ideally, fuels 

would be reduced at the selected sites to a range of 5-30 

tons per acre, with an operational goal of 15 tons/acre. 

The following exotic / fuel removal treatments are being 

implemented in this study: 1) mechanical removal of 

dead and downed wood and exotic shrubs/trees followed 

by the application of herbicide (Garlan 3 and 4) to cut 

stumps, 2) partial mechanical removal of dead, down, and 

exotics followed by spot herbicide and light, prescribed 

fire, 3) mechanical removal of dead, downed, and exotics 

followed by spot herbicide and revegetation with native 

plants, and 4) control, no treatment. The research team 

and all cooperators agreed upon treatment types and 

goals prior to site selection. Treatment type at each site 

was selected using a random numbers table. Treatments 

by site are listed in our annual reports (Finch and others 

2003, 2004). More information about prescriptions can 

be obtained in the Environmental Assessments on file 

with Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge and 

Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District.

Vegetative Surveys

Vegetation surveys were analyzed at three levels: 

landscape-block, site-patch, and local-plot. Ecological 

classifications followed the scheme described in 

“Handbook of Wetland Vegetation Communities of New 

Mexico” (Muldavin et. al. 2000). More details about our 

vegetation data collection methods are described in Finch 

and others (2003).

At each site, two vegetation plot centers were established approximately 25 meters in each direction from 

each bird point count station using the diagonal azimuth 

(i.e., NW). Individual trees were counted by using the 

appropriate prism. A tree was counted if the displacement 

of the prism still touched the tree at approximately breast 

height. The selected tree was then identified to species, 

categorized as living or dead, and measured for DBH. 

In cases where a tree had more than one stem displaced 

by the prism, only the largest stem was counted. These 

measurements were entered into equations acquired 

from the Region 3 Stand Exam Program. This allowed 

for calculation of basal area, trees per acre and average 

diameter for each tree species. To measure crown closure, 

a densiometer reading was taken facing north and south 

by counting the number of closed points in each direction. 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 115

The two readings were then averaged and converted to 

a percentage to characterize canopy cover at the point. 

The average for each point was then used to determine 

canopy cover for the entire plot.

Four-meter radius circular plots were established at 

each bird count station to characterize understory and 

ground cover on each study site (James and Shugart 

1970). Each plot area was 50.3 square meters or approximately 1/200 of a hectare. All native and exotic trees and 

shrubs were identified, counted, and measured for DBH. 

On all plots, woody plants with a DBH > 5 cm were 

characterized as alive or dead, identified to species, and 

measured for DBH. Only the largest stem was counted 

when a plant had more than one stem. All understory 

plants were identified and counted.

Fuel Inventory

The fuels targeted for treatment are grouped into dead 

and down, and live exotic trees. Fifty-foot transects were 

established at the center of each vegetation plot. Two 

transects were established at each bird point count station. 

Fuel data collection was based on sampling procedures 

for planar intercepts. Fuel pieces were counted by size 

class as they intercepted the transect line, following the 

procedure established in the attached document. Fuel 

pieces greater than three inches (diameter) were identified 

to species and measured to the nearest half-inch. The duff 

depth was measured twice on each transect. Fuel depth 

was measured three times along each transect. Resulting 

data were entered into the “Fuel Management Analyst 

Suite” (Fuels Management Analyst 2002). The Planar 

Intercept program was used to produce fuel load per type 

(tons/acre) and average duff and fuel bed depth (in.). 

With the exception of nest-vegetation data, pre-treatment 

vegetation and fuel load data were collected during the 

2000-01 field seasons.

Exotic stems were counted at one fixed area plot per 

bird point station. Each exotic plant was identified to species and measured for DBH. Height and crown ratios for 

each species were calculated. The Crown Mass Inventory 

portion of the Fuel Management Analyst Suite was used 

to determine fuel loading by type (tons/acre).

Breeding Bird Point Counts

At each study site, we established generally eight point 

count stations along a north to south gradient based on 

global positioning system (GPS) coordinates. Only two 

sites do not have the standard number of point count 

stations: North 3 (7) and South 2 (5). All stations were 

positioned 150 meters apart and the majority is 75 meters 

from boundary edges. There is one point count station 

per 2.5 hectares.

Generally, our point count methods follow Bibby and 

others (1992). All points were sampled an average of 

five times per season, with each transect surveyed in a 

north-south direction, alternating direction each session. 

A round of counts for all sites was completed before 

beginning a new session. Point counts were performed 

every other week during each breeding season (05 May 

to 15 August, approximately). During each count, the 

observer at each point recorded all birds seen or heard 

for 8 minutes. Detection mode (heard, seen), sex, relative 

age of bird, and distance from point (m) were also recorded. Common and scientific names were based on the 

A.O.U Check List of North American Birds (American 

Ornithologists’ Union, 1998) and its supplements. 

Species identification and distance estimations were 

checked across observers by informal testing throughout the sampling season. Each observer was trained to 

estimate and record distances to each bird. Each transect 

was surveyed by 3-5 different individuals over the course 

of each of the three pretreatment seasons to standardize 

observer bias (Verner, 1985). On mornings with low 

wind (<15 km/hr) and no precipitation, surveys were 

conducted within the first four hours after sunrise with 

the first count beginning within half an hour of sunrise. 

Analyses of wildlife abundance and possible responses 

to fuel removal will be evaluated after treatments.

Nest Monitoring

Each research site was searched for active nests on a 

regular and consistent basis from May through August 

each study year. At each nest, observers recorded a nest 

identification number, species identification, GPS location, directions to the nest (geographical and microscale), 

and a check of nest contents. Nest checks were repeated 

until young fledged (recorded as “success”) or the nesting 

attempt failed (“failure”) or ended with an undetermined 

fate (“unknown”). During nest checks, observers recorded monitoring dates, nesting stage, nest contents, 

and detailed notes about adult behavior, and evidence 

of cowbird parasitism, predation, and fledging. After the 

nesting season ended, additional measurements such as 

nest height, location of nest in plant, nest material, nest 

tree size and tree condition were collected at each nest 

site.

Results

Project Status

Data collection for this project began in the summer of 

2000. This paper reports on project status through March 

2004. Three complete years (200, 2001, and 2002) of 
116 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

pre-treatment bird data were collected. Mechanical 

removal and herbicide phases of treatments were implemented at 5 sites (NO2, NO4, SO2, SO3, and SO4) 

during the fall and winter of 2002-2003. Remaining 

sites other than controls are scheduled to be treated in 

the fall and winter of 2003-2004. Only one season of 

“post-treatment” data at five partially-treated sites has 

been collected up to the time of the writing of this paper. 

Because treatments have not been fully implemented and 

post-treatment sampling remains to be completed, only 

limited analyses of treatment effects can be reported.

Overstory Vegetation

The dominant species at all sites was Rio Grande 

Cottonwood (Populus deltoids ssp. wislizeni). Native 

trees such as Goodding’s Willow (Salix gooddingii) 

and Box Elder (Acer negundo) were also important 

components of the overstory in the North and Middle 

blocks. Sites in the North block had higher canopy 

closures than those in other blocks. In the North block, 

the exotic trees, Siberian Elm (Ulmus pumila), Honey 

Locust (Gleditsia triacanthos) and White Mulberry 

(Morus alba), are present in the overstory as well as in 

the understory. Average canopy height for larger trees in 

the North block was approximately 19 m, and average 

DBH (diameter-at-breast-height) was 50 cm. Other sites 

and blocks had more trees per hectare, and trees were 

younger and/or stunted trees, averaging 12-15 m tall and 

20-35 cm in diameter. Mean canopy closure decreased 

from North to South blocks of sites, ranging from 75.5 

percent (+29.9 percent) at South 3 to 96.9 percent (+2.25) 

at North 2. Variation in canopy closure at South sites was 

much higher than North sites, as reflected by standard 

deviations that were about 5-7 times larger at South sites 

than North sites. A more comprehensive description of 

vegetation measurement results is given in Finch and 

others (2003).

Understory Vegetation

The understory layer at all study sites was dominated 

by exotic trees, the majority of which were Russian 

Olive and Salt Cedar. Exotic trees at North block sites 

were generally larger in size than those observed in other 

research blocks. The number of Russian Olive trees per 

site increased from North to South blocks, whereas the 

reverse was generally true for Salt Cedar. Also, the native 

New Mexico Olive (Forestiera pubescens), Seepwillow 

(Baccharis salicifolia) and native Pale Wolfberry (Lycium 

pallidum) were much more prevalent in the South block. 

The two native willows, Goodding’s (Salix gooddingii) 

and Coyote (Salix exigua), were more abundant in the 

Middle block. Rio Grande Seepwillow (Baccharis 

salicina) and Golden Current (Ribes aureum) were most 

prevalent in the North block.

Fuel Loads

Fuel loads across all 12 study sites were comprised of 

exotic plants and dead and down wood. Total fuel loads 

prior to treatment varied from a low of 15.3 tons/acre at 

the South 2 site to a high of 51.0 tons/acre at the North 3 

site. The North block of sites had an average fuel load of 

42.1 tons/acre, the Middle block of sites had an average 

of 28.04 tons/acre, and the South sites had 32.1 tons/acre. 

The high fuel loads in the North sites are associated with 

high numbers of exotic trees as well as high amounts of 

dead and down (especially in the small size class). The 

average site contribution of dead and down in the 0.1-

2.9” size class was 8.1 tons/acre/site, compared to 4.37 

tons/acre contributed by the 3” size class. Exotic stems 

contributed an average of 21.6 tons/acre/site, which is 

about twice as much as the contribution by dead and 

down wood.

Breeding Bird Counts

Over 100 bird species have been detected across all 

study sites over the duration of the study. Bird count 

information is provided by species and year (2000-

2003) in our annual reports, available by request. Table 

1 gives bird detections/point averaged by site and year 

for the 20 most common species observed in the pretreatment phase (2000-2002) and during the first year of 

the treatment period (2003). At this time, it is premature 

to evaluate statistically bird population responses to 

treatments because treatments are still in progress, and 

variations in bird populations among years and sites must 

be examined and factored out. We are simply reporting 

average detection numbers to illustrate the kinds of data 

we have collected during the pre-treatment phase and 

will continue to collect during and following treatments 

to determine treatment effects.

The most abundant species using our study sites during 

all sampled years was the Black-chinned Hummingbird 

(Archilochus alexandri) with detections in the pretreatment phase ranging from an average low of 1.80 

birds/point at our South 4 site to an average high of 27.99 

birds/point at North 3 (NO3). Hummingbird detections in 

2003 appeared slightly higher on all sites than site detections averaged across the pre-treatment phase. Annual 

variation in hummingbird numbers may be an important 

factor in explaining variation in bird numbers. Site to site 

variation in hummingbird numbers is also clearly evident 

in the pre-treatment phase. In particular, hummingbirds 

were most frequently detected at our northern sites and 

least frequently detected at our southern sites, suggesting 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 11

7

Table 1. Mean detections/count/site of common breeding bird species at 12 sites in the pre-treatment (a = 2000 – 2002 averaged by year) and treatment (b = 2003) 

phases of the middle Rio Grande fuel removal study.*

*shaded columns indicate sites treated between 2000-2003, and unshaded indicate untreated sites.
118 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

that factors that typically vary over space (for example, 

habitat suitability, air temperature) may explain variation 

in hummingbird numbers among study sites.

Spotted Towhees (Pipilo maculatus), Black-headed 

Grosbeaks (Pheucticus melanocephalus), and Bewick’s 

Wrens (Thryomanes bewickii) were the next most 

commonly recorded species. Like the Black-chinned 

Hummingbird, most species showed site-to-site variation 

in numbers of detections during the pre-treatment phase 

(table 1). In particular, detection rates for Black-capped 

Chickadees and Black-headed Grosbeaks generally decreased from north to south sites whereas detection rates 

for Mourning Dove, Ash-throated Flycatcher, Yellowbreasted Chat, Phainopepla, and Brown-headed Cowbird 

were the reverse. Our annual reports demonstrate that 

annual variations in detections of many species were 

also noteworthy.

Bird Nests

A total of 580 nests, representing 33 species, were 

located on our 12 study sites during the pre-treatment 

phase (2000-2002). Nest fates, categorized as “success” 

or “failure,” were determined for the most common riparian bird species (509 nests). We found more nests of 

Black-chinned Hummingbirds (253) than of any other 

species (table 2). This species had an overall nesting 

success rate of approximately 67.35 percent. Exotic trees 

(Russian olive, in particular) were used more often as 

nest substrates than native plants. Assessment of 2000-

2001 data indicated that Black-chinned Hummingbird 

nesting success was not significantly related to use of 

exotic versus native plant substrates (chi-square, p > 

0.05). Further monitoring will continue over the next 

several years.

Raptors, including as Cooper’s Hawks (Accipiter 

cooperii) and American Kestrels (Falco sparverius), and 

cavity nesters displayed relatively high nesting success 

rates compared to the rates for cup-nesting species in 

the pre-treatment phase (table 2). In contrast, the Blue 

Grosbeak (Passerina caerulea), which nested more 

frequently in understory exotics than in native plants, 

appeared to have a fairly high rate of nest failure (70 percent) during the pre-treatment phase. Given that numbers 

of both Blue Grosbeaks and Brown-headed Cowbirds 

(Molothrus ater) varied together at some of the same sites, 

the high rate of Blue Grosbeak nest failure might be in 

part related to brood parasitism by cowbirds. How birds 

such as these respond to the removal of their preferred 

nesting plants will be one of the questions we will address 

by collecting and analyzing post-treatment data.

Table 2. Numbers of successful and failed nests by nest substrate (exotic or native plant) of common bird species during the pretreatment phase (2000-2002) of the middle Rio Grande fuel model study.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 119

Nest searches were conducted in the 2003 field season. 

This was a year when mechanical treatments were implemented at several sites. A total of 328 nests were found 

in 2003, the largest number recorded in any year of the 

Fuels Reduction study. Interestingly, of all sites surveyed, 

two partially-treated sites, North 4 (50) and South 2 (42), 

had the highest number of nests. Mechanical removal of 

exotics had been completed on both sites prior to collection of bird count and nest data. In the previous year, 

both sites were within the top three for most nests found 

and monitored per site. Thus, both North 4 and South 2 

retained a high proportion of nesting birds in the first 

sampling season following mechanical removal of exotics and accompanying site disturbance.

Black-chinned Hummingbird nests accounted for 

almost half of all monitored nests (n = 152) in 2003. As 

in pre-treatment years, hummingbirds displayed a high 

nesting success rate (approx. 80 percent for 2003). The 

second most common nest found in 2003 belonged to 

Mourning Doves with a 50 percent success rate that paralleled dove nesting success rates from previous years.

As expected, due to the reduction of understory 

plants and potential nesting substrates, fewer nests 

(91) were found at the cut sites in 2003 than at uncut 

sites in 2002 (64 nests) despite 19.5 more hours of nest 

searching in 2003. In 2002, we found a total 68 nests 

of eight different species in exotic plants and only 21 

nests in native plants on five sites scheduled for fuel 

removal. After treatment at these same sites, we only 

found 8 nests in exotic plants (at the periphery of the 

treated areas or in regenerated plants) but 56 nests 

Figure 1. Numbers of nests of common bird species at treated 

sites combined found in exotic and native plants in 2002, 

a pre-treatment year, and 2003, the first year of postmechanical fuel removal.

in native plants. The two most predominant 

nesting species at pre-treatment sites in 2002, 

Black-chinned Hummingbirds and Mourning 

Doves, appeared to switch readily to native 

substrates when exotics were removed (fig. 1) 

at least in this first treatment year. The number 

of nests for both species only declined slightly. 

Excluding hummingbirds and doves, we found 

31 nests in 2002 and only 10 nests in 2003. No 

nests of Blue Grosbeaks (Passerina caerulea) 

or Northern Mockingbirds (Mimus polyglottos) 

were found at any fuel reduction sites after cutting, and only 5 Phainopepla nests were found 

in 2003 compared to 14 nests in 2002.

Discussion

Treatments are scheduled to be completed by fall 

2004, and the first year of post-treatment monitoring 

of vegetation, bird populations, and other variables is 

planned for the field season of 2005. Our quick evaluation 

of pre-treatment data revealed that numbers of exotic 

and native woody plants, canopy closure, and fuel loads 

varied by site. This variation is likely to affect bird numbers at each site. For example, decreases in observations 

of Black-chinned Hummingbirds from North to South 

sites paralleled declines in numbers of Russian Olive 

and Rio Grande Cottonwood stems and percentage of 

canopy closure from North to South. During the treatment-analysis phase, we will need to factor in natural 

variation in vegetation across sites and consequent effects 

on bird populations. Bird populations also varied by year, 

another factor to be accounted for when interpreting treatment effects. Annual variation in bird numbers is linked 

to yearly differences in adult and juvenile mortality and 

productivity which can vary by species.

More nests were found over all sites in 2003 than in 

any previous year, even though fewer nests were found 

at the five mechanically-cut sites than in 2002. Prior to 

treatment, shrub-nesting birds, especially Black-chinned 

Hummingbirds and Mourning Doves, frequently nested 

in exotic plants and experienced comparable nesting 

success as those nesting in native plants. Cavity-nesters 

rarely used exotic plants as nest substrates, and hawk 

nests were never found in exotics. After treatment, the 

abundant Black-chinned Hummingbird and Mourning 

Dove adapted to loss of exotic plants at cut sites by 

switching their nests to native plants. Further analyses and interpretations of bird population and nesting 

responses to treatments will be conducted after treatments are completed and post-treatment data have been 

collected.
120 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Fuel loads are comprised of dead and down wood 

and exotic plants. Some bird species such as Northern 

flicker and Bewick’s Wren forage for insects in dead 

and down wood. Cavity-nesters build their nests in live 

and dead snags, some of which will be removed during 

the treatment phase. Some cup-nesting species appear 

to have an affinity for exotic woody plants as nest, 

cover, or foraging substrates. We predict that at least 

some cavity-nesters, litter-foragers, and shrub nesters 

will experience population declines at the local site 

level during the first 1-3 years following treatments. If 

treatments are successful in restoring native understory 

shrubs, however, bird species that require shrubs to nest 

in may experience resurgence in their numbers as native shrubs mature, reproduce, and spread. Although the 

short-term population responses of canopy-nesters such 

as Summer Tanager and Yellow-billed Cuckoo are hard 

to predict, the long-term consequences of restoring native 

trees (such as Rio Grande Cottonwood and Goodding’s 

Willow) by removing exotic plant competitors are likely 

to be beneficial for canopy-nesters.

Acknowledgments

We would like to acknowledge assistance and 

contributions from the following organizations: City 

of Albuquerque Open Space, Middle Rio Grande 

Conservancy District (MRGCD), USDA NRCS Plant 

Materials Center, New Mexico State Forestry, USDA 

Forest Service (Region 3 and State and Private Forestry 

Program), US Fish and Wildlife Service (Bosque del 

Apache NWR and Region 2), and University of New 

Mexico. Financial assistance for research and treatments 

was provided by Joint Fire Science Program, Ducks 

Unlimited, Bosque Improvement Group, and RMRS 

Middle Rio Grande Ecosystem Management Group. We 

would also like to thank Alice Chung-MacCoubrey, Roy 

Jemison, Michael Means, Jeff Kelly, and all seasonal 

technicians, past and current, who have participated on 

the overall project.

References

American Ornithologists’ Union. 1998. The A.O.U. Checklist of 

North American Birds, 7th Edition. American Ornithologists’ 

Union.

Bibby, C.J., N. D. Burges, and D. A. Hill. 1992. Bird Census 

Techniques. Academic Press, San Diego, California, 

USA.

Busch, D. E. and S. D. Smith. 1995. Mechanisms associated 

with decline of woody species in riparian ecosystems of 

the southwestern U.S. Ecological Monographs 65 (3): 

347-370.

Finch, D. M., R. Jemison, and A. Chung-MacCoubrey. 2003. 

Progress report for Middle Rio Grande Fuels Reduction 

Study 2000-2002. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Albuquerque, NM.

Finch, D. M., R. Jemison, A. Chung-MacCoubrey. 2004. 2003 

Annual Report Middle Rio Grande Fuels Reduction Study. 

USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Albuquerque, NM.

Fuels Management Analyst. 2002. Fire Program Solutions. 

http://www.fireps.com.

Hart, Charles, R. 2002. Saltcedar: Biology and Management. 

Texas Cooperative Extension, The Texas A&M University 

System.

James, F. C., and H. H. Shugart, Jr. 1970. A quantitative method 

of habitat description. Audubon Field-Notes 24: 727-736.

Muldavin, E. P., P. Durkin, M. Bradley, M. Stuever, and 

P. Mehlhop. 2000. Handbook of Wetland Vegetation 

Communities of New Mexico. New Mexico Natural 

heritage Program, Biology Department, University of New 

Mexico, Albuquerque, NM.

Verner, J. 1985. An assessment of counting techniques. Current 

Ornithology 2: 247-302.

Wicklund, C. P. and Y. Najmi. 1998. Prescription guide for 

the Rio Grande bosque, NM. NMEMNRD, State Foresry 

Division, Santa Fe, NM. 26 pp.

Williams, B.K., J.D. Nichols, and M. J. Conroy. 2000. Analysis 

and Management of Animal Populations. Academic Press, 

San Diego, CA.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 121

Introduction

Soil and water are essential for ecosystem processes. 

Primary production of ecosystems requires soils in terrestrial systems and water bodies in aquatic systems 

to support energy capture through photosynthesis and 

energy flow through consumption, growth, and respiration. Terrestrial nutrient cycling generally requires soil 

before nutrient uptake can occur in plants whereas aquatic 

nutrient cycling requires physical or temperature-induced 

mixing of nutrients within the water. In terrestrial systems, soil influences hydrologic processes by the capture, 

storage, and release of water (Whisenant 1999), but water 

and wind can erode soil. Soil erosion is regarded as a 

major contributor to declines in human civilizations over 

the past 7,000 years (Lowdermilk 1953). Rangelands 

Soil and Water Indicators of the Sustainable Rangelands 

Roundtable

M.G. “Sherm” Karl, Inventory & Monitoring Specialist, National Science & Technology 

Center, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior, Denver Federal 

Center, Lakewood, CO

D.A. Pyke, Research Rangeland Ecologist, Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, 

U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, OR

P.T. Tueller, Professor Emeritus of Range Ecology, Department of Natural Resources and 

Environmental Science, University of Nevada, Reno, NV

G.E. Schuman, Soil Scientist, Rangeland Resource Research Unit, High Plains Grasslands 

Research Station, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Cheyenne, WY

R.W. Shafer, Operations Research Analyst, Office of Environmental Information, Quality 

Staff, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, DC

S.J. Borchard, Deputy Group Manager, Rangeland Soil Water and Air Group, Bureau of 

Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior, Washington, DC

D.T. Booth, Rangeland Scientist, Rangeland Resource Research Unit, High Plains Grasslands 

Research Station, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Cheyenne, WY

W.G. Ypsilantis, Soil Condition and Health Specialist, National Science & Technology 

Center, Bureau of Land Management, U.S. Department of the Interior, Denver Federal 

Center, Lakewood, CO

R.H. Barrett, Jr., Rangeland Management Specialist, Oregon State Office, Bureau of Land 

Management, U.S. Department of the Interior, Portland, OR

Abstract—The Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable (SRR) has explicitly included conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources as a criterion, a category of 

conditions or processes that can be assessed nationally to determine if the current level 

of rangeland management will ensure sustainability. Within the soil/water criterion, 10 

indicators, 5 soil-based and 5 water-based, were developed through the expert opinions 

of rangeland scientists, rangeland management agency personnel, non-governmental organization representatives, practitioners, and other interested stakeholders. Out of these 

10, 5 were judged by the soil/water criterion group members as being most expedient 

for a future national level U.S.A. report on rangeland sustainability. The soil and water 

indicators are not inclusive, but provide a suite of variables, that when complemented 

with indicators from the 4 other criteria of SRR, produce a viable system to monitor at 

the national level the biophysical, social, and economic characteristics indicating trends 

of sustainability on rangelands.
122 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

and their associated communities rely on conservation 

and maintenance of soil and water resources to maintain 

them over time.

The Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable (SRR) has 

explicitly included conservation and maintenance of 

soil and water resources as a criterion, a category of 

conditions or processes that can be assessed to determine if the current level of rangeland management will 

ensure sustainability. As a criterion, conservation and 

maintenance of soil and water resources is too general 

to monitor directly, but it can be characterized by a set of 

indicators monitored over time to detect change.

Indicators are quantitative or qualitative variables 

that are assessed in relation to a criterion. An indicator 

describes attributes of the criterion in an objective, verifiable, and unambiguous manner, and is capable of being 

estimated periodically to detect change.

The indicators for the conservation of soil and water 

resources are divided between soil-related and water-related components of this criterion (table 1). The 

indicators are the outcome of an evaluation of the conservation and maintenance of soil and water resources 

indicators identified in the Roundtable on Sustainable 

Forests (RSF), soil and water resources indicators from 

Heinz (2002), plus our identification of new indicators 

that relate specifically to rangeland sustainability. Neary 

and others (2000), in an effort not associated with the 

Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable, evaluated the applicability to rangeland sustainability of the eight RSF 

soil and water indicators. We evaluated Neary and others 

(2000) and based on this evaluation we retained four of 

the RSF soil and water indicators (table 1).

We applied a standard set of questions to each indicator. The questions focus on: (1) what is the indicator, 

(2) what the indicator measures and why it is important 

to rangeland sustainability, (3) geographic variation of 

the indicator, (4) the meaning of the indicator at various spatial and temporal scales, (5) the availability, and 

quality of data sets, and (6) the degree of understanding 

that stakeholders have for the indicator. Here we provide 

answers to these questions for five of the 10 indicators. 

These five indicators are ones the soil/water group members judged to be most expedient for future national-level 

reports on rangeland sustainability.

Table 1. Indicators for soil and water conservation on rangelands, in no particular order of importance.

Indicators What the Indicator Describes

Soil-based

Area and Percent of Rangeland with Significantly Diminished Soil productivity, infiltration, nutrient content, nutrient

Soil Organic Matter and/or High Carbon:Nitrogen (C:N) Ratioa availability, nutrient cycling, carbon sequestration, resistance 

to erosion

Area and Extent of Rangelands with Changes in Soil Resistance to erosion by water and wind, soil water

Aggregate Stabilityb availability, root growth

Assessment of Microbial Activity in Rangeland Soilsb Soil productivity, decomposition, nutrient content, nutrient 

availability

Area and Percent of Rangeland with a Significant Change Erosion potential, aboveground vascular plant productivity

in Extent of Bare Groundb

Area and Percent of Rangeland with Accelerated Soil Soil loss by water or wind, soil productivity

Erosion by Water and Winda

Water-based

Percent of Water Bodies in Rangeland Areas with Significant Water quality and aquatic habitat conditions

Changes in Natural Biotic Assemblage Compositiona

Percent of Surface Water on Rangeland Areas with Water quality

Unacceptable Levels of Chemical, Physical, and Biological 

Propertiesa

Changes in Groundwater Systemsb Water quantity, watershed functioning, change in geographic 

extent of riparian and wetland ecosystems

Changes in the Frequency and Duration of Surface No-Flow Aquatic and terrestrial biodiversity, watershed functioning

Periods in Rangeland Streamsc

Percent Stream Miles in Rangeland Catchments in which Watershed functioning, including sediment transport,

Stream Channel Geometry Significantly Deviates from the sediment filtering and retention, substrate composition, flood

Natural Channel Geometryb amelioration, fish and wildlife habitat, aquifer recharge, water 

temperature, and season and duration of surface flow

a

 Originated with Roundtable on Sustainable Forests and was retained in SRR.

b

 A new indicator identified by SRR.

c

 Originated with Heinz (2002) and was retained in SRR
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 123

Area and Percent of Rangeland 

With Significantly Diminished 

Soil Organic Matter and/or 

High Carbon:Nitrogen (C:N) 

Ratio

Importance of the Indicator

This indicator measures the soil organic carbon (soil 

organic matter) content of the soil, and the carbon:nitrogen (C:N) ratio of the soil organic matter. The C:N ratio 

is a relative measure of soil organic matter’s potential for 

biological decomposition. Soil organic matter provides 

many benefits to the soil and is associated with the productive potential of soils and soil sustainability. The C:N 

ratio of soil organic matter provides an indication of the 

potential availability of the organic matter to microbial 

decomposition, and therefore, nutrient release for plant 

growth. Soils with a high C:N ratio would indicate that 

the organic matter is more resistant to biological decomposition whereas soils with a C:N ratio of < 10:1 would 

indicate a good healthy soil and one that would have good 

biological decomposition of organic matter occurring.

Geographic Variation and Scale in Time 

and Space

Soil organic matter levels vary by soil type, plant 

community, and climate. Fine-textured soils with greater 

clay content generally exhibit greater soil organic matter 

levels, because the productivity potential is greater, attributable to the greater water holding capacity and reduced 

decomposition and oxidation rates in fine-textured soils 

(Reeder and others 1998). Changes in vegetation and 

litter inputs, for example as a result of a significant shift 

from C3 grass-dominated plant communities to C4 grassdominated plant communities, result in greater root:shoot 

ratios and greater C:N ratios (Schuman and others 1999). 

Climate and its effects on soil moisture and temperature 

affects rangeland productivity, which directly influences 

soil organic matter levels. For example, tallgrass prairie 

will have greater soil organic matter levels compared 

with shortgrass prairie because of the greater contributions of litter and root biomass attributable to the greater 

productivity. Climate also affects decomposition rates, 

which influences soil organic matter levels.

Soil organic matter and its C:N ratio also can reflect 

temporal changes attributable to changes in management. Although temporal changes in soil organic matter 

and C:N ratios lag somewhat to temporal changes in 

vegetation and litter, the changes can be detected in 

enough time to initiate management changes to prevent 

serious degradation of soil. Spatially, soil organic matter varies considerably, reflecting the heterogeneity of 

soils across short distances. The degree of heterogeneity across short distances infers difficulty in sampling 

rangelands adequately for a national-level assessment 

of soil organic matter; however, baseline-sampling sites 

can be established to compare and detect change over 

time and space.

Data Collection and Availability

Methods of assessing soil organic matter and C:N 

ratios are available and are adaptable to the regional and 

national level. Soil organic matter is generally reported 

as soil organic carbon, rather than vice-versa. It is recommended that soil organic carbon be assessed to detect 

spatial and temporal changes in soil organic matter. The 

laboratory methodologies available for measuring soil 

organic carbon are economical, repeatable, and accurate 

but to date, no in situ field methodology exists for assessing soil organic carbon. Whereas a great deal of soil 

organic carbon data exist that can be used to make initial 

assessments, C:N ratio data are not as prevalent because 

simultaneous nitrogen data were not always collected 

in earlier studies. Recently, researchers have begun to 

collect soil organic carbon and nitrogen, because of 

the heightened recognition of the interrelationships of 

carbon and nitrogen from a microbial and nutrient cycling standpoint. Also many laboratories are now using 

combustion methods for determination of soil organic 

carbon which routinely includes nitrogen analyses. In 

general, soil organic carbon and nitrogen data are limited 

for rangelands compared with croplands.

Clarity to Stakeholders

Stakeholders generally understand the importance 

of organic matter as it relates to soil. However, soil organic carbon and the C:N ratio are less well understood, 

particularly how they relate to litter decomposition and 

nutrient cycling.

Area and Percent of Rangeland 

With a Significant Change in 

Extent of Bare Ground

Importance of the Indicator

Bare ground is exposed mineral or organic soil that is 

susceptible to raindrop splash erosion (Morgan 1986). 

Increases in bare ground and greater homogeneity of 
124 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

existing bare ground relate—directly—to a site’s susceptibility to accelerated wind or water erosion (Benkobi and 

others 1993, Blackburn and Pierson 1994, Cerda 1999, 

Gutierrez and Hernandez 1996, Morgan 1986, Pierson 

and others 1994, Smith and Wischmeier 1962). The 

importance of bare ground as an indicator is a function 

of: 1) its direct relationship to erosion risk; 2) its known 

value as an indicator of changes in land management and 

watershed function (Branson and others 1972); and 3) 

the ease and economy with which this indicator can be 

monitored over extensive areas, particularly when using 

remote sensing methods (Abel and Stocking 1987, Booth 

and Tueller 2003, Tueller and Booth 1975). It also lends 

itself, more than most other natural resource indicators, 

to automated measurement by computer image-analysis 

techniques (Bennett and others 2000, Booth and others 

2003).

Geographic Variation

The amount and distribution of bare ground varies. 

On many rangelands, little bare ground exists because 

litter, rock, gravel, and sometimes functional biological 

soil crusts, cover the non-vegetated areas. Bare ground 

also varies among: 1) soils of differing parent materials, 

texture, and age; 2) plant communities; 3) lands with 

differing precipitation patterns; and 4) grazing intensities—to name some of the more prominent variables.

Bare ground is a meaningful indicator in all different 

regions when compared by site over time so that the 

natural range of variation is established. Soil series or 

ecological site descriptions (http://esis.sc.egov.usda.gov/, 

accessed 09/02/2004) might become useful for predicting bare ground; however, that use must be preceded by 

years of trend-analysis data collection and correlation of 

bare ground with the relevant variables such as climate, 

aspect, vegetation (existing and historical), geology, 

and slope.

Scale in Time and Space

Until the stability and range of variation of a given 

ecosystem or management unit is established, it seems 

advisable to measure bare ground frequently (1 to 5 year 

intervals). Where the natural range of variation is established and data indicate bare ground is relatively stable 

over time, a 5 to 10-year sampling interval seems appropriate unless there is a significant disturbance or change 

in management. Methods of measuring bare ground 

include point, plot (area), and linear (line intercept) 

methods. Point methods include the point frame (Levey 

1927), and the point-step (Evans and Love 1957). Plot 

methods include the now archaic charting (usually of a 

1-m2 plot) by means of a pantograph (Stoddart and Smith 

1955) and 2-cm diameter Parker loop (Parker 1951).

Bare ground measurement by image analysis has 

developed considerably since Cooper (1924) described 

his methods for obtaining vertical photographs of vegetation from 1.8 m above ground level. Daubenmire 

(1968) observed that cover could be measured from an 

image (chart, map, or photograph) by using a planimeter, by cutting out and weighing parts of the image, or 

by using a dot grid. Computers greatly facilitate cover 

measurements from images. Where image pixel resolution is similar to the 2 mm per pixel used by Bennett 

and others (2000), image analysis can be considered a 

direct, point-sampling of ground-cover that gives greater 

precision than is obtained by on-the-ground methods like 

the point frame (Bennett and others 2000, Walker 1970, 

Wells 1971). Images with less resolution give an area 

measurement. Point sampling (dot grid or pixel count) 

used with lower-resolution images measures image cover 

(as opposed to ground cover) and image cover converts 

to a ground-area measurement. The greater the ground 

area per pixel, the greater the inaccuracies attributable 

to pixels containing mixtures of bare ground and other 

attributes (for example, vegetation, rock, gravel, litter, 

and biological soil crusts). These are inaccuracies of 

absolute bare ground per unit area. The inaccuracies are 

less problematic if we consider only temporal changes 

by delineating the exact area and using the same method 

to measure change over time. Regardless of methods, 

season and annual variation in vegetation cover may impact the measure of bare ground and must be considered 

when interpreting changes (Anderson 1974, Gutierrez 

and Hernandez 1996).

As with all indicators, data collected at a local level 

are not easily extrapolated to, and reported over, larger 

geographic areas without a sampling design consistent 

with the inherent variability of the larger geographic 

area being monitored. It is usually impractical for extensive land areas such as public grazing allotments or 

watersheds to be monitored using sample numbers and a 

distribution adequate to something like a 95% confidence 

interval if sampling is limited to ground-based methods. 

Aerial sampling as used by Abel and Stocking (1987), 

Booth (1974), and Booth and others (2003) greatly 

enhances the practicality for adequate sampling over 

extensive areas.

Data Collection and Availability

Some data set(s) exist at the regional to national level, 

but methods and procedures are not standardized at the 

regional to national level. For most available data, bare 

ground was not measured using the strict definition 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 125

we used above (for example, the National Resource 

Inventory began using our strict definition in 2003 for 

rangeland surveys, Pyke and others (2002), Spaeth and 

others (2003)). The data sets exist as 2 types, ground 

data collected with various methods, and remotely 

sensed data.

Ground data: Bare ground is included in vegetation 

analyses for many agencies and non-governmental organizations, including most military reservations in the 

United States (for example, the military’s Land Condition 

and Trend Analysis). The data within and among these 

agencies and organizations have been collected using 

various methods and for numerous sites yet lack adequate 

sampling designs for regional to national aggregation. 

However, where sequential, comparable data exist, 

they may provide a useful measure of the natural range 

of variation for the site. Another potential source for 

obtaining the natural range of variation for bare ground 

is the USDA-NRCS, individual soil pedon data for 

recent surveys. The aggregated data for soil map units 

and taxonomic units are stored in NASIS (National Soil 

Information System) and available through the SSURGO 

(Soil Survey Geographic) database for digitized surveys. 

A limitation here is that ground cover is probably ancillary data in most soil surveys, without stringent standards 

for providing estimates (C. Talbot 2003, pers. comm.).

Remote sensing data: Data sets (U.S.A. or otherwise) 

with an image resolution that potentially allows an accurate measure of bare ground (Morgan 1986) are rare 

and largely limited to research efforts (Bennett and others 

2000, table 1 in Booth and Tueller 2003, Booth and others 

2003, Wells 1971). No remote sensing study has measured bare ground classification accuracy using the strict 

definition adopted from Morgan (1986). Theoretically, 

bare ground can be measured using existing remote sensing data bases but measurement inaccuracies are likely, 

attributable to pixels containing mixtures of factors and 

to variable amounts of soil moisture and organic matter 

that confound image analysis. Research is addressing 

these limitations.

The brightness, or intensity, of radiation reflected from 

bare ground is high because there is nothing to absorb 

it. Conversely, a dense vegetation cover absorbs most of 

the incoming red radiation, so its brightness is low. The 

light that vegetation does not absorb well is the infrared 

wavelengths; therefore, heavily vegetated areas reflect 

a high proportion of infrared light. The combination of 

low red and high infrared reflectance is often referred to 

as “greenness.” Most remote sensing studies categorize 

areas as bare ground in an indirect manner, by assuming 

that areas not reflecting infrared must be non-vegetated. 

This is somewhat simplistic however because of the 

confounding classification factors mentioned previously, 

and the fact that many arid land plants exhibit little spectral greenness. However, the results of such studies do 

describe increases in bare ground associated with land 

degradation.

A number of remote sensing studies have shown a high 

accuracy for a bare ground category when classifying images at various scales (Tueller and Oleson 1989, Tueller 

and others 1988), however, these studies do not adhere to 

our strict definition for bare ground, nor do they partition 

out the confounding factors mentioned previously. For 

arid rangelands, areas of bare ground can be identified 

with high accuracy using representative fraction scales 

varying from 0.2 m pixel Kodak Color infrared digital 

air photo data, to 0.6 m Quick Bird (commercial satellite 

system) data, to 1 m IKONOS (commercial satellite system provided by Space Imaging, Inc., Thornton, Colo.) 

data, to 5 m pixel IRS satellite data. Changes can be 

quantified easily where areas are classified and the bare 

ground category is reasonably accurate based on image 

processing techniques. Resolution of these confounding 

classification factors at various scales will enhance the 

usefulness of remote sensing for quantifying bare ground 

and monitoring bare ground changes on rangelands.

Recently, remote sensing experts have been experimenting with hyperspectral data. Hyperspectral systems 

provide complete spectroradiometric curves of various 

sized polygons, representing individual plants or plant 

communities (vegetation types) depending on the scale. 

Spectroradiometric curves show discrete absorption 

features that can represent bare ground, individual soils, 

or the mineral characteristics of specific kinds of soils. 

The shape of spectroradiometric curves can be indicative of the amount of bare ground in a pixel. Research 

in this field is promising and should be encouraged. In 

addition, new IFSAR (Interferometric Synthetic Aperture 

Radar) systems may provide new data that will be useful 

to evaluate bare ground.

Ground vs. remote sensing: West (1999) stated, “I see 

no hope that traditional methods of monitoring, via point 

sampling on the ground (italics added), will be able to 

accomplish those (monitoring) needs...especially when 

landscape and regional perspectives are required. There 

are simply not enough adequately trained people and that 

approach would not be affordable, even if the necessary 

professionals existed.” This was demonstrated by the 

National Resource Inventory, Colorado Test (a prototype 

procedure) where random sampling and ground data 

(objective and subjective) collection was used (Pellant 

and others 1999). Pellant and others (1999) reported 

an average 2.5 hours travel time for 3-person teams to 

reach sample sites. This included the use of helicopters 

for sites not accessible to wheeled vehicles. Field data 

collection cost (with no data analysis included) was $893 
126 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

per sampled site. The field crews sampled 448 locations 

at a total cost of $400,000 (Pellant and others 1999).

The dilemma has been in choosing where to error. 

The smaller the scale (larger sized pixels) used in remote 

sensing the greater the extensive information about 

large-sized geographic areas, but the lower the accuracy 

of our inference about specific details (that is, the area 

of land susceptible to raindrop splash). Conversely, 

accurate measurement of bare ground at specific sites 

limits the geographic area of inference and has high 

cost and increasingly difficult access for ground work. 

Hopefully, the newly evolving technologies will solve 

the dilemma.

Clarity to Stakeholders

The public generally understands that bare ground is 

less desirable than soils covered by vegetation. Changes 

in the extent of bare ground over time, rather than how 

much bare ground there is at any moment in time, are 

more compelling in regard to rangeland sustainability. 

The concept of some bare ground being normal for many 

rangelands, rather than all bare ground being viewed 

as negative, is a concept that stakeholders still need to 

understand.

Area and Percent of Rangeland 

With Accelerated Soil Erosion 

by Water and Wind

Importance of the Indicator

Soil erosion by wind or water begins with the loss of 

all or part of the surface horizon. Surface horizons of 

soils are important to maintain because they contain the 

majority of the organic material and are the exchange 

medium for transferring nutrients from the soil to plants. 

Losses of soil through erosion may lead to reductions in 

the productivity of the site (Davenport and others 1998, 

Dormaar and Willms 1998). Upper soil horizons typically 

contain the highest organic matter and nutrient content 

therefore this component of the soil generally controls 

the rate of water infiltration, plant establishment, and 

growth (Wood and others 1982). Excessive erosion can 

contribute soil sediments to waterways thereby reducing 

water quality.

Since 1945, UNEP (1990) estimates that 11% of 

Earth’s vegetated soils (1.2 billion ha) have become 

degraded to the point that their original biotic functions 

were damaged and that reclamation would be impossible 

or too costly. Wind and water erosion caused most of this 

degradation. Accelerated erosion is arguably the number 

1 contributor to declines in human civilizations over the 

last 7,000 years (Lowdermilk 1953), which points to the 

importance of monitoring soil erosion rates as an indicator of rangeland sustainability and the sustainability of 

human civilizations associated with rangelands.

This indicator will identify areas where erosion is 

greater than expected for the soils on a specified site. It 

is not to identify areas with high natural erosion rates 

(for example, the South Dakota Badlands in U.S.A.). 

This indicator measures soil loss by the action of water 

or wind.

Geographic Variation

Soil erosion on rangelands was recognized as a serious 

problem at both local and national levels in the U.S.A. in 

the 1920’s (Weltz and others 1998). Soil erosion varies 

by soil and by plant community but is important in any 

region. Local, regional, and national data on soil erosion 

can only be accumulated if similar soils and vegetation 

are affected and the data summarized for the total of the 

affected areas.

Scale in Time and Space

This indicator is applicable at various spatial and 

temporal scales. Its applicability depends on the kind 

of soil involved and the ability to measure rills and gullies, provide evidence of interrill erosion, and measure 

soil movement through the air. Rill erosion is caused by 

concentrated runoff water flowing over the soil, whereas 

interrill (sheet) erosion results from raindrop impact and 

splash. Soil aggregate size and stability, biological soil 

crusts, physical crusting, random and oriented roughness, and extent of vegetative cover are related to wind 

and water erosion. The distribution of these erosion 

characteristics and their changes across spatial scales 

from an individual plot to large geographic areas will 

influence changes in erosion. The temporal scale would 

be in terms of years but often related to individual storm 

events in relationship to overgrazing and other sources 

of rangeland degradation.

Data Collection and Availability

Accelerated erosion by water can be observed using several parameters including movement of litter 

downslope, evidence of sheet erosion, or an increase in 

the number and size of rills and gullies (Pellant and others 2000). Soil erosion rate can be viewed as a function 

of site erosion potential (SEP) determined by climate, 

slope conditions, soil erodibility, and ground cover. 

In pinyon-juniper dominated areas with high SEP, the 

erosion rate is highly sensitive to ground cover and can 

cross a threshold so that erosion increases dramatically 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 127

in response to a small decrease in cover (Davenport and 

others 1998). After disturbance, both runoff and erosion 

amounts tend to increase and remain at elevated levels for 

a decade or more although the rate is not increased with 

time (Wilcox and others 2003). As rangeland vegetation 

mosaics change resulting from disturbance, ecologically 

important changes in runoff and erosion can result (Reid 

and others 1999).

Wind erosion and transport of surface materials 

depends on the strength of the wind, the soil surface 

texture, and the surface protection materials including 

rocks, biological soil crusts, and vegetation. Surface 

soil texture is an important key to wind erosion hazard 

potential. Loamy sand and sand are the most vulnerable 

soil textures to wind erosion. Clayey soil, because of 

the ultrafine particle size with highly reactive surfaces, 

has better structure, and hence is more resistant to wind 

erosion. Coarse sand and gravelly or rocky soils also are 

more resistant to wind erosion, because the particles are 

too heavy to be removed. Wind erosion can lessen soil 

productivity because wind erosion physically removes 

soil particles and organic matter near and at the soil surface, and because soil fertility (for example, nitrogen and 

phosphorus) decreases with decreases in organic matter 

content (Foth 1984). Soil particles can enter suspension 

and become part of the atmospheric dust load. Dust obscures visibility, pollutes air, and fills road ditches and 

the result can be decreased water quality, automobile 

accidents, fouling of machinery, and imperilment of 

animal and human health (Skidmore and Layton 1988). 

Accelerated erosion constitutes a very strong indicator 

of rangeland degradation.

Standardized methods and procedures for data collection and reporting have been studied for use at the 

regional to national level, but useable data set(s) do 

not exist at the regional to national level. However, on 

natural rangelands the Universal Soil Loss Equation 

(USLE), Revised USLE (RUSLE), RUSLE2 and Water 

Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) have been or are 

being evaluated for rangeland use. Early models (USLE 

and RUSLE) were developed for cropland and failed as 

useful predictors of erosion on rangelands. NRCS soil 

survey data potentially can provide a national level soil 

erodibility and soil erosion data set on rangelands, but 

erosion was a visual estimate of an observer at an NRI 

point while erodibility was calculated using the inaccurate USLE or RUSLE models.

Remote-sensing techniques provide a promising technology to obtain information on soil erosion, but limited 

testing has been done. We encourage additional research 

to refine and test various methods for obtaining accurate 

data over larger areas.

Clarity to Stakeholders

Stakeholders understand erosion. When interested 

individuals see active or past erosion the reaction is often 

a concern for the health of the land. More subtle signs 

of erosion and the concept of wind-caused dust and the 

relationship of these to good land stewardship is obscure, 

requiring further stakeholder tutoring over time.

Percent of Surface Water 

on Rangeland Areas With 

Unacceptable Levels of 

Chemical, Physical, and 

Biological Properties

Importance of the Indicator

This indicator measures the percent of surface water 

with impaired water quality. Surface water includes the 

length of small, medium, and large streams and rivers, 

and the area of lakes and reservoirs. Under the Clean 

Water Act, states and authorized tribes develop water 

quality standards for their individual stream and river 

segments, often including their lakes and reservoirs (U.S. 

EPA 1994). A water body segment is a bounded part of a 

stream, river, lake, or reservoir that is regulated by a set 

of water quality standards. To establish these standards, 

states and tribes identify designated beneficial uses (for 

example, drinking water, recreational, agricultural) for 

each of their water segments, and then set water quality 

criteria to ensure protection of its chemical, physical, 

and biological integrity (U.S. EPA 1994). A water quality criterion is an ambient concentration of an important 

parameter (for example, dissolved oxygen, or pH, or 

temperature, or heavy metals; usually a LD50 or other 

metric) that ensures that the designated use or uses for 

a given water segment are not impaired. Impaired water 

quality means that 1 or more of the criteria adopted 

to protect the designated use or uses of an individual 

water body segment are not being met. Leading causes 

of water quality impairment of our nation’s waters are 

excess nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus), sediment/

siltation, pathogens, and metals (USDI-USGS 1999). 

EPA’s National Water Quality Inventory 2000 Report 

states that approximately 40% of the nation’s assessed 

streams are impaired (http://www.epa.gov/305b/, accessed 09/02/2004). Water resources must be of adequate 

quality to support a variety of uses such as human and 

livestock consumption, wildlife habitat, agricultural and 

industrial supply, and recreation (Heinz 2002). Water 
128 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

quality is important to rangeland sustainability because 

wildlife, recreation, livestock, downstream water users, 

and others depend on clean water, particularly in arid 

and semi-arid rangelands.

Geographic Variation

Water quality standards will vary geographically. For 

a particular water body, the water quality parameters 

which are deemed important, and the appropriate criteria or thresholds, will depend on the designated uses. 

In addition, states and tribes consider natural ranges of 

variation when designating uses and developing water 

quality standards. Water quality impairment assessments 

are local decisions because our nation’s waters do not 

naturally exhibit the same characteristics, for example the 

ability to support a cold-water fishery. However, states 

and tribes regularly monitor and assess water quality, 

and identify their water bodies that do not meet their 

standards. These impaired water bodies are reported on 

a Clean Water Act Section 303(d) list that is updated 

biennially (US EPA 2003).

Scale in Time and Space

States and tribes have flexibility on how they determine designated uses, what water quality parameters 

to monitor, what monitoring methods to use, and what 

methods are used to assess water quality. Also, to meet 

management and compliance objectives, most water 

quality monitoring is conducted at “fixed” stations, and 

the resultant data are not necessarily representative of 

the whole water body or watershed. National reports 

on water quality do not yet provide an assessment of all 

the watersheds in the United States. For these reasons, 

scaling water quality parameter data up to a regional or 

national reporting level would be very difficult, as would 

be assessing comprehensive regional or national trends of 

important water quality parameters. However, the Section 

303(d) impairment lists, updated by the states and tribes 

using the local water quality data, provide information 

nationally of deteriorated water quality and its causes (US 

EPA 2003). Reporting of Section 303(d) lists began in 

1998, and the states are required to update their lists every 

2 years. As part of their Section 305(b) requirements, 

States have for the last 30 years been monitoring and 

reporting water quality information into EPA’s national 

data system, STORET (not a true acronym, stands for 

Water Quality Storage and Retrieval System).

Data Collection and Availability

Under Section 305(b) of the Clean Water Act, 

EPA, other federal agencies, states and tribes are to 

monitor their waters for water quality, and report that 

information in STORET. Additionally, a National Water 

Quality Inventory is required biennially, which is a report that summarizes water quality reports submitted by 

states, territories, interstate commissions, and tribes. For 

reasons stated previously, this report cannot be used as a 

regional or national assessment, or for national trends in 

water quality. Also required is a biennial Section 303(d) 

list of impaired waters (US EPA 2003). These impaired 

waters are required to develop a TMDL (total maximum 

daily load). TMDL is a calculation of the maximum 

amount of a pollutant that a water body can receive and 

still meet water quality standards, and an allocation of 

that amount to the pollutant’s sources. This is probably 

the best information we have on impaired water quality, 

and initially should be the data sources for this water 

quality indicator.

Another potentially useful data source is the USGS 

(United States Geological Survey) National Water 

Quality Assessment (NAWQA) program. To help support local decision makers in developing TMDLs and 

to provide long-term, nationwide information on water 

quality, NAWQA is starting its second decade of intensive water quality assessments. These assessments will 

cover 42 large hydrologic systems representing about 

60% of the nation’s waters used for drinking and irrigation, and include a broad list of physical, chemical, and 

biological measures including stream flow and stream 

habitat, water, sediment, and tissue chemistry, and characterization of algae, invertebrate, and fish communities. 

However, NAWQA data coverage on rangelands is 

limited, because at least half of the 40% non-coverage 

area is rangeland.

Clarity to Stakeholders

The concept of a water body meeting or not meeting 

a water quality standard is an easily understood concept 

to stakeholders.

Changes in the Frequency and 

Duration of Surface No-Flow 

Periods in Rangeland Streams

Importance of the Indicator

This indicator is patterned on an indicator developed 

by The Heinz Center (Heinz 2002). This indicator annually measures: 1) the percentage of rangeland streams 

with at least 1 day of no flow (also referred to as zero 

flow) in a year; and 2) for stream gauging stations showing at least 1 day of zero flow, the duration of zero flow 

events compared with a long-term average. Together, 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 129

these 2 variables describe the frequency and duration of 

surface no-flow periods. There are numerous reasons for 

why streamflow is important in sustaining environmental, 

biological, social, and economic systems, not the least 

of which are: 1) the maintenance and recharge of ground 

water and the retention and productivity of streambankstabilizing vegetation; 2) the continuity and quality of fish 

habitats; and 3) the availability of water for agricultural 

and municipal use and recreation.

Surface no-flow periods can occur naturally. Surface 

no-flow periods also can occur because of increased 

water use for domestic, irrigation, or other purposes, 

or because of changes in land use (for example, transition from rangeland to urban), or because of changes in 

vegetation which modify the flow of surface water and 

the recharge of groundwater (for example, expansion of 

deep-rooted vegetation such as pinyon or juniper, which 

can draw down surface aquifers). Changes in surface 

no-flow periods also can be attributable to changes in 

weather and/or climate.

Geographic Variation

This indicator has been reported at the division level 

of Bailey’s ecoregions (for example, 250—prairie division; 260—Mediterranean division [Bailey 1995, in 

Heinz 2002]), and in the temporal range from 1949-1999 

based on USGS stream gauge data, http://nwis.waterdata.

usgs.gov/usa/nwis/discharge, accessed 09/02/2004, in 

Heinz (2002). Differences are discernible over time at 

the division level of Bailey’s ecoregions, and spatially 

between divisions.

Scale in Time and Space

The indicator does not identify cause of increases 

or reductions in the frequency or duration of zero flow 

events, but is meaningful at the division level of Bailey’s 

ecoregions and at decadal scales (Heinz 2002).

Data Collection and Availability

Methods and procedures for data collecting and 

reporting, and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional to national level, and are maintained by USGS 

and are available at http://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/

nwis/discharge.

Clarity to Stakeholders

Stakeholders can understand that changing streams 

from perennial to ephemeral or intermittent will impact 

the aquatic organisms that cannot tolerate periods without 

flowing water, but we anticipate they do not understand 

the relationships between periods of no-flow and groundwater levels.

A Look Ahead

Several of the indicators pose challenges regarding their applicability over broad geographic areas. 

Sampling schemes have not yet been designed for some 

of the indicators to achieve an objective of regional to 

national-level reporting of change over time. Some indicators are esoteric and would need effort to increase their 

understanding among stakeholders before they would be 

widely accepted as being credible.

We are discovering that regional and national level 

data sets are not available for most of the indicators; 

data sets often are more available for smaller geographic 

areas, with various methods used for measurement. 

Elaborating on the quality of data sets has been challenging because quality-control information is scant in 

the literature.

The 5 indicators presented here represent the “keystone” indicators from the Soil/Water Criterion Group 

that will likely be of focus in a proposed interagency 

(Bureau of Land Management, Forest Service, and 

Natural Resources Conservation Service) sustainable 

rangelands report scheduled for completion by 2010. Soil 

and water are the basic resources of rangeland sustainability. The identification and eventual quantification 

of rangeland indicators related to soil and water might 

provide an approximation of rangeland sustainability 

for our nation and provide a blueprint for evaluating 

rangeland sustainability worldwide.

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132 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The Deep, Dark, Forest by A.S. Harris

Crunch, crunch, crunch,

listen to ‘em munch,

it’s always time for lunch,

in the deep, dark, forest.

It’s awful to behold

the creeping, crawling, mold,

entwining in its fold,

the deep, dark, forest.

The lepidopter-ees,

are eating up the trees,

until the winter freeze,

in the deep, dark, forest.

The parisite-ees hover,

and lunch upon each other,

including their own mother,

in the deep, dark, forest.

Oh Lord, deliver me,

from these awful mysteries,

as I crawl from tree to tree,

in the deep, dark, forest.

I will begin my presentation on this subject with figure 

1. It is a graphic display showing estimates of the area impacted in Alaska (primarily in southcentral) by the spruce 

bark beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis [Kirby]) between 

1970 and 2003. These data are based on annual aerial 

insect surveys made jointly by the Alaska Department 

of Natural Resources (ADNR), Forestry (ADNR 1996), 

and the U.S. Forest Service, Office of State and Private 

Forestry (S&PF).

From this graphic, it is possible to see the progression 

of the bark beetle population from an endemic state, 

impacting only about 120,000 acres in 1970, and the increase to epidemic proportions in 1996, when it impacted 

an estimated 1.1 million acres. It is apparent that the bark 

beetle has eaten itself out of house and home until it only 

impacted about 54,000 acres in 2002.

The primary spruce species under attack were white 

spruce (Picea glauca [Moench] Voss) and Lutz spruce 

(Picea Xlutzii Little), although, in this study, some bark 

beetle presence was found in stands of black spruce 

(Picea mariana Mill. B.S.P.), and Sitka spruce (Picea 

sitchensis [Bong.] Carr.).

By 1995, there was a great reservoir of unique natural 

resource information to be gained from an inventory of 

the spruce bark beetle infestation on the Kenai Peninsula, 

and there certainly was a need to evaluate the changing 

forest health condition related to that epidemic. In 1997 

and 1998, the University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), 

Environment and Natural Resources Institute (ENRI) 

conducted two seasons of field measurements, resulting 

in six technical publications and two poster papers. It is 

the purpose of this paper to summarize those presentations.

In 1996, the University of Alaska awarded a $27,000 

grant from its Natural Resources Fund to ENRI to conduct a field study to evaluate the inventory and mortality 

of the Kenai Peninsula forest stands during the summer of 

An Overview of University of Alaska Anchorage, ENRI 

Research on the Spruce Bark Beetle Infestation, Kenai 

Peninsula, Alaska, 1997–2002

Vernon J. LaBau, University of Alaska Anchorage, Environment and Natural Resource 

Institute, Anchorage, AK

Abstract—In the mid 1990s, one of the largest bark beetle infestations seen anywhere in 

the world occurred on the Kenai Peninsula of Alaska. In one year, the infestation affected 

over one million acres of spruce in Alaska. This paper presents a coalescence of several 

aspects of study on the problem, including tree inventory and mortality, regeneration, 

understory response, a phytomass study, an assessment of mortality inventory methodology, and an assessment of forest health after the bark beetle infestation declined. 

The basis for the data collection in these studies was a two-phase sampling design 

(aerial photos and ground plots), established by the author in 1997 and subsequently 

re-measured in 1998.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 133

1997. The objective of this study was to conduct a study 

of five-year spruce mortality and spruce regeneration and 

the effects of inhibiting vegetation (grasses, shrubs, etc.) 

on spruce regeneration on a pilot area within the region 

of the Kenai Peninsula that was road accessible.

Specifically, the objective was to answer the following questions:

What was the estimated area of High, Moderate, and 

Low intensity bark beetle impact areas?

To what extent was the bark beetle impacting growing 

stock, especially for white and Lutz spruce? What size 

trees were being attacked? What percent of the trees 

were being impacted? What was the ratio of live tree 

growth to mortality?

What was the level of regeneration in the above impact 

areas, especially for white and Lutz spruce? Was there 

any indication that grass was inhibiting regeneration 

of spruce where the spruce overstory was killed by 

beetle attack.

The results of the 1997 study were published in a 

UAA ENRI report (LaBau 1998). In the fall of 1997, 

another Natural Resource Fund award in the amount of 

$25,000 was made to ENRI to revisit the 1997 plots and 

evaluate a one-year impact of the bark beetles and to 

try to collect fuel- loading information associated with 

the bark beetle kill. It was also decided to evaluate the 

efficacy of sampling plot designs in capturing mortality 

information. The number of ground plots sampled was 

increased in the 1998 study.

The objectives of the 1998 study were twofold:

Expand the 1997 study, primarily to collect data to 

develop a forest fire fuels model (Rothermel1983) 

as well as collect additional data on total vegetation 

phytomass and down wood biomass.

1.

2.

3.

1.

Expand the study sample size and ground plot configuration to evaluate the efficacy of sampling plot 

designs in capturing mortality information.

The results of the 1998 study were published in a 

UAA ENRI report (LaBau 2002). Additional results 

were presented at the Carbon Sequestering Conference in 

Anchorage, AK, in May 2000 (LaBau and Mead 2001), 

giving an overview of what the phytomass distribution 

and fuel loads were relative to the 1998 re-inventory 

study.

The results of the study to evaluate efficacy of the 

sample plot designs can be found in a paper presented 

at an IUFRO and SAF Inventory Working Group 

Conference in Boise, ID in August 1998 (LaBau and 

Hazard 2000).

Finally, an evaluation was made of forest health of the 

residual live spruce and birch (Betula paperifera Marsh) 

on the Kenai Peninsula. The results of that evaluation 

were published in the 2002 National Society of American 

Foresters Convention in Winston Salem, NC, in October 

2002 (LaBau and Boughton 2003).

As previously mentioned, the purpose of this presentation is to provide an overview of the results of those 

various studies.

Methodology

The first step of the study was to establish the sample 

unit. A sample unit boundary was laid out to encompass 

the major areas of bark beetle attack, which had been 

mapped up through 1995 on the S&PF maps for the Kenai 

Peninsula (see Map A). This boundary was established 

following section, township, and range lines so that land 

2.

Figure 1. Alaska Acres Impacted 

by Spruce Bark Beetle 1970 

to 2003.
134 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

areas could be assigned to the sampled area at a later 

time. Subsequent evaluations of the sample area using 

U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) land records 

resulted in an estimated 2,802,569 acres for the entire 

sample unit.

It had been predetermined that there was not sufficient 

funding to sample areas beyond 6 miles from the road 

system (designated as “inaccessible” areas). The final 

“accessible” sampling unit was 1,232,587 acres in size. 

Given the limitations of funding, it was decided that a 

statistical design should be utilized that would provide a 

maximum return for the money. It was felt that the study 

should take advantage of ancillary information from 

aerial photography, as well as from the ADNR/S&PF 

aerial insect survey maps, and attempt a stratification 

of the populations of interest to the greatest degree possible.

The sampling design chosen was a two-phase (double) 

sampling (Bickford 1952) approach, stratifying the populations of interest on high altitude color infrared (IR) 

aerial photos at the first phase. For both the “Accessible 

and Inaccessible” Zones the photos were interpreted (15 

points systematically gridded around each photo center) 

and each point was assigned strata codes based on photo 

interpretation techniques. A minimum area of about .4 

hectares (one acre) was evaluated at each photo point. 

To provide a strata of bark beetle attack intensity, four 

years (1992-1995) of ADNR insect aerial survey maps 

(ADNR 1996) were overlain on 1:250,000 USGS maps 

of the Kenai Peninsula, and bark beetle impact intensity 

strata were assigned as follows:

High Impact: Photo point falling inside an S&PF 

mapped insect attack polygon.

Moderate Impact: Photo point falling within one mile 

of an attack polygon.

Low Impact: Photo point beyond one mile of a polygon, but within one mile of a “dot” on the S&PF maps, 

indicating an area of isolated attacks.

No Impact: Photo point beyond one mile of a polygon 

or “dot.”

The data collected at the phase 1 level at each photo 

point included:

USGS Map Quad (1:250,000)

Photo Flight Year

Photo Flight Roll

Photo Flight Number

Photo Grid Point Number

Forest Type

Accessibility Type

Distance to Road

S&PF Insect Impact Intensity

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•

A recording form and a manual of photo interpretation 

procedures and coding instructions were prepared. Over 

2600 photo plots were evaluated within the area selected, 

of which about 1100 were in the “accessible” zone. These 

data were entered directly into EXCEL spreadsheets in 

order to facilitate summarization later.

In phase 2, a random sub-sample was selected in proportion to photo interpreted bark beetle impact classes 

from the strata of phase 1. This sub-sample was then 

visited on the ground to collect more detailed data on the 

populations of interest. In this study, ground data were 

desired to obtain more detailed information about how 

many trees are attacked or killed, the size of the trees 

killed, regeneration following the bark beetle killing 

the overstory, and the response of vegetation that might 

inhibit tree regeneration. Forest health data were also 

collected following National Forest Health Monitoring 

(FHM) procedures (Conklin 1996).

In establishing the phase 2 sampling frame, because 

funds were not available to use aircraft to travel into inaccessible areas, only the “accessible” zone photo points 

were sampled. All nonforest, water, and hardwood photo 

calls were assumed to have been made without error, and 

having no spruce forest present, these photo plots did 

not need to be ground visited. Therefore, the sampling 

frame for the ground plots consisted of the photo points 

from just the four impact strata within the “accessible” 

zone, giving a sampling frame of 456 photo points. Ten 

phase 2 plots were selected at random from each of the 

four impact strata in the “accessible” zone giving a total 

of 40 ground plots to visit.

After receiving permission from the landowners to 

access the plots on the ground, the ground plots were 

visited and data measurements taken and observations 

made during the summer of 1997 by a two-person crew 

trained in measuring forest inventory and forest health 

monitoring plots.

Recording forms, a manual of ground plot measurement procedures, and coding instructions were prepared 

as part of the study plan. In 1997, the ground plots 

were visited in order of their draw until all funds were 

expended. This resulted in the visitation and data collection for seven ground plots in each of the four strata 

(28 ground plots). Each ground plot consisted of four 

subplots on which the live tree and vegetation information was measured or observed and a full acre plot taken 

to record all trees that had died within the previous five 

years. Accepted U.S. Forest Service guides were used 

to estimate 5-year mortality. For the 1998 re-measurement, twelve more ground plots were added (three in 

each strata). A 6-year mortality criteria was applied and 

a larger mortality plot (1.5 acres) was laid out. All measurements were recorded in metric units. A diagram of 

the ground plot layout is shown in figure 2.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 135

The following data were collected in the various categories of interest:

Live tree tally for all trees over one inch in diameter 

at breast height recording:

Species, diameter at breast height, dominance, total 

height, and beetle attack if any. Forest health observations were also made relative to crown ratio, density, 

dieback, and transparency. Assessments of damage to 

the tree were also made according to type of damage, 

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•

severity, and location on the tree. Finally, all trees were 

monumented by recording the distance and azimuth 

from the plot center to the tree.

Regeneration of seedlings over 0.3 meters tall recording:

Count by species, height and age.

Mortality trees (trees dying within the last five in 1997 

or six years in 1998) were tallied on one acre in 1997 

and on the 1.5 acres in 1998, recording:

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Figure 2. Spruce Bark Beetle Study Plot Schematic, 1998.
136 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Species, diameter at breast height, dominance, total 

height, cause of death, estimated year of death, and 

beetle attack if any. All mortality trees were monumented by recording the distance and azimuth from 

the plot center to the tree. The mortality plot size was 

enlarged to 1.5 acres in size in 1998 to accommodate 

a planned mortality sampling accuracy test using a 

Chi Square analysis (Freese 1960).

Plot ground vegetation composition—percent cover 

of:

Mosses, shrubs, grasses, herbs, seedlings under 1 

foot tall.

Plot summaries of forest condition on each of four 

subplots, recording:

Forest type, stand size class, stand age, slope, aspect, 

and past disturbance.

In the 1998 study, two more data sets were collected, 

recording:

Downed wood on three 45 foot transects to help assess 

fuel loads (Brown 1974).

Understory phytomass in tree seedlings, shrubs, 

grasses, forbs, mosses, and lichens (Yarie and Mead 

1988). Understory profiles would be constructed to 

assess phytomass of the lower vegetation.

Aboveground phytomass, as oven dry weight per unit 

area, would be derived from:

Sapling trees (>1.0 inch but < 5.0 inches diameter at 

breast high (dbh)),

Live trees (> 5.0 inches dbh),

Mortality trees (> 1.0 inches in dbh)

At the end of the day, all data were coded into EXCEL 

spreadsheets in a laptop computer to facilitate easy 

analysis at a later date. At the end of the field season, a 

complete check was made comparing the original field 

data sheets with the EXCEL summaries. All discrepancies of this type were resolved prior to any data analysis 

being made.

During the analysis phase, cubic foot volumes were 

computed using formulae provided by the USFS’s 

Anchorage Forestry Sciences Laboratory. These were 

the same formulae used in their most recent inventory 

of the Kenai Peninsula forest resource (van Hees and 

Larson 1991).

Also, during the analysis phase, a decision was made 

to evaluate tree health. It was therefore necessary to establish a method for determining poor health trees (“at 

risk” trees). With the consultation of various colleagues 

familiar with tree health criteria, a matrix of tree condition factors was developed that could be used to establish 

the “at risk” tree class (LaBau and Boughton 2003). The 

criteria in that matrix included crown condition, such as 

ratio, density, dieback, etc. and presence of significant 

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tree damage, such as conks, wounds, broken or dead 

branches, and dead tops.

Results (1997 and 1998 

Assessments)

Area Estimates

Area estimates were derived for strata classes along 

with respective standard errors for the 1,232,587 acres 

in the “accessible” zone. Of the 1.2 million acres evaluated with photo and ground plots, the study inferred that 

about 515,000 acres was in forest, and of that forested 

area, about 33.3 percent was in High impact areas, 25.0 

percent in Moderate impact areas, 19.8 percent in Low 

impact areas, and 18.9 percent in the No impact areas. 

The remaining 3.1 percent was in unaffected pure hardwood stands.

About 78 percent of all forest land (conifer, mixed, and 

hardwood) was impacted by the bark beetle. Over 58 percent was within the combined High and Moderate impact 

areas. One encouraging finding was that when variances 

and percent sampling errors were evaluated for the four 

combined strata of interest (High, Moderate, Low, and 

No), the percent sampling error for the combined strata 

was a very respectable 5.38 percent.

Growing Stock Tree Inventory Findings

Standard report tables of cubic foot volumes were 

prepared, but they will not be the focus of this report. For 

detailed information in that regard, see LaBau (1998).

Six-year Spruce Mortality Findings

For the plots measured in 1997, it is estimated that 

32.2 percent of the basal area of white and Lutz spruce 

that was alive in 1992 had been killed by the bark beetle. 

However, the 1998 study showed a dramatic one-year 

increase in mortality, resulting in 41 percent of the 1992 

white and Lutz spruce being killed, primarily by bark 

beetles. The occurrence of spruce mortality followed the 

expected trends set forth when stratifying areas into the 

insect impact strata.

About 57 percent of all spruce mortality occurred in the 

High insect impact class, with more than 80 percent of all 

spruce mortality occurring in the High and Moderate impact classes. The 1998 study showed a one-year increase 

in mortality of about 83 percent for all forested areas, with 

about 106 percent increase in the High insect impact class. 

This increase in one-year mortality occurred, despite a 

decrease in rate of bark beetle spread, as observed in the 

1997 and 1998 S&PF aerial surveys (fig. 1). This implies 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 137

that although the rate of spread was decreasing, the bark 

beetles were making heavy impact on the stands that had 

already been infected by them in prior years.

The bulk of the insect mortality occurred in trees 

10 inches in diameter or larger. However, as the insect 

population began to kill most of the larger trees, they 

moved into smaller trees, some as small as three inches. 

Further, as the live white spruce and Lutz spruce disappeared, the beetles also killed even black spruce as small 

as 3 inches dbh.

Regeneration Findings and Effect of 

Grass Invasion

Regeneration rates for white and Lutz spruce appear 

to be about at par with what forest management minimums are for stocking. The High impact stands had the 

most regeneration of seedlings (under 1 inch diameter). 

Regeneration plots in these areas showed about 450 white 

spruce seedlings per acre and an additional 1500 seedlings per acre from birch, aspen, and black spruce. The 

other three strata (Moderate, Low, and No impact) had 

a regeneration rate of from 150 to 407 spruce seedlings 

per acre and 557 to 1500 other species. The Chugach 

National Forest tries to manage for about 300 seedlings 

per acre in their white spruce forests. Birch regeneration 

is quite high, but survival to tree size for any given birch 

seedling is greatly limited by moose browsing. About 67 

percent of the birch seedlings showed signs of moderate 

to severe browsing.

Because these studies were limited to two years, it was 

not possible to establish definitive measurements of grass 

invasion. However, it was apparent that the stands where 

most of the overstory had been killed by bark beetle attack showed higher levels of grass in the understory, and 

this would inhibit establishment of spruce seedlings, and 

where seedlings did get established, there was evidence 

of the spruce seedlings being damaged by “lodging” due 

to the dead tall grass going down and pushing the seedlings down with it in the fall and winter months.

Phytomass Findings–Fuel Loading 

Implications

Phytomass was summarized by five vegetation components (live trees, six-year mortality trees, saplings, 

understory plants, and downed wood). The most important findings for the tree components were:

The live tree component of the aboveground vegetation contained more phytomass than the remaining 

components combined. Live trees accounted for 77 

percent of the aboveground phytomass in the No 

impact class.

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The highest proportions of phytomass in the six-year 

mortality component occurred in the Moderate (32 

percent) and High (29 percent) insect impact classes. 

Only 2 percent of the phytomass was in mortality trees 

in the No insect impact class.

Phytomass in sapling trees varied between 2.5 percent 

and 6.0 percent across the four insect impact classes. 

Most saplings were present before the bark beetle 

seriously impacted the Kenai forests.

Understory vegetation made up about 2 percent 

of the total phytomass in each insect impact class. 

Increases in understory phytomass resulted from 

overstory mortality and increased sunlight reaching 

the understory.

Shrub phytomass accounted for over 40 percent of 

the understory phytomass in three of the four insect 

impact classes. Shifts in shrub phytomass in response 

to reduced conifer overstory were not apparent.

There was an inverse relationship between coniferseedling phytomass (29 percent) and the mass of 

grass and forbs (16 percent). Grass phytomass was 

three to four times greater in the High and Moderate 

insect impact classes than in the Low and No impact 

classes. This tends to support the suspected trend of 

increasing densities of grass and forbs where overstory 

is decreases, and supports the theory that in beetlekilled forests increasing grass cover may impede 

conifer regeneration.

Hardwood seedling phytomass was four to ten times 

larger in the High and Moderate insect impact classes 

than in the Low and No impact classes suggesting a 

hardwood invasion in response to increased light under 

the beetle-killed conifer stands.

Moss phytomass was inversely related to severity of 

the beetle infestation. Moss was 6.3 percent, 9.2 percent, 8.3 percent, and 10.5 percent of the understory 

phytomass in the High, Moderate, Low, and No insect 

impact classes, respectively. Opening of the conifer 

overstory increased light intensity and drying of the 

understory vegetation, thus reducing moss presence.

Lichens were less than 1 percent of the understory 

phytomass in all impact classes.

Down-Wood Findings–Fuel Loading 

Implications

The downed wood component is important in modeling fuel loading and wildfire potential. The following 

are some of the implications of this study:

As beetle-killed spruce fall, the potential for serious 

ground fires increases. As of 1998, few of the standing 

beetle-killed spruce had fallen. The downed wood in 

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138 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

the highly impacted areas, where bark beetle attacks 

were generally less than 10 years old, averaged 21.4 

metric tons per hectare. This compares reasonably 

with accumulations found in stands impacted for 5 

and 9 years which showed, respectively, about 16 and 

22 metric tons per hectare of downed wood (Schulz 

1995).

Plots in the No insect impact class had most of the 

large Sitka spruce and hemlock trees. When these trees 

mature and fall, the ratio of down to standing wood 

inflates due to the large size of the dead material.

The combined dead material in standing mortality 

and downed wood comprises 54.5 percent, 50.0 percent, and 33.0 percent of all phytomass in the High, 

Moderate, and Low beetle impact classes, respectively. 

As more of the surviving white and Lutz spruce are 

killed, these percentages will increase in all impacted 

areas.

Findings Relative to Forest Health of 

Residual Stands

Only about 5 percent of the residual white and Lutz 

spruce trees were rated as having “at risk” tree health 

in 1998, comprising 9.5 percent of the spruce basal 

area.

About 26 percent of the residual paper birch trees were 

rated as having “at risk” tree health in 1998, comprising over 35 percent of the birch basal area.

The paper birch, when evaluated on a basal area basis, 

was found to have almost four times as much basal 

area in the “at risk” tree health class as the spruce.

When assigning tree health, it is important to not 

just evaluate crown conditions, but to also include 

tree health risks, such as conks, wounds, and insect 

attacks.

About 24 percent of the white and Lutz spruce trees 

still alive in 1998 were under attack by bark beetles.

Findings Relative to Mortality Sample 

Plot Evaluation Using Chi Square

For over a decade, a debate has been going on as to 

how well the four-point cluster of 1/24th acre plots (1/6th 

acre sample in total) (Conklin 1996) would capture the 

Poisson distributed population of mortality trees. The efficacy of that four-point cluster design is very important 

when considered in the context of measuring mortality 

to assess forest health. For the past decade, the four-point 

cluster has been comparatively evaluated against a larger 

1-acre plot throughout the forests of California, Oregon, 

and Washington.

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To test the efficacy of the cluster design in the 

epidemic beetle attack situation of the Kenai, a plot 1.5 

acres was laid out (completely encompassing the 4-point 

cluster), and all trees 5 inches and larger dying between 

1992 and 1997 were measured and stem-mapped, noting 

if they also occurred on the four point cluster.

Four Chi Square tests of accuracy (Freese 1960) were 

run, one for each of the strata in the study, with 10 pairs 

of data being tested in each strata, providing 10 degrees 

of freedom for each strata tested. For the ten degrees 

of freedom in these tests, the Chi Square threshold for 

rejecting the null hypotheses at the .05 level is 18.31. 

The larger 1.5 acre plot was assumed to capture the “true 

population” for the purposes of this test. However, it is 

recognized that the larger plot population is still from a 

sample, and is not, in fact, a “true population” statistic.

For all four of the strata evaluated, the null hypotheses 

were rejected at the .05 level, implying that the tally of 

mortality trees on the four-point cluster is significantly 

different from the tally on the 1.5 acre plot, and that the 

four-point cluster plot did not give estimates of mortality as accurately as the larger 1.5 acre plot. More details 

of this analysis can be found in LaBau and Hazard 

(2000).

Summary

In summarizing the findings of the two UAA/ENRI 

bark beetle studies there are several points that should be 

highlighted. The author encourages those interested in 

more detail to read the original papers. The most important findings of the various papers are listed below:

Of the white and Lutz spruce alive in 1992, by 1998, 

41 percent had been killed by the bark beetle. By the 

turn of the century, the bark beetles killed most of the 

oldest and most vulnerable spruce in the study area.

As expected, the largest numbers of mortality 

trees were found in the High and Moderate impact 

classes.

The stratification system used in this study worked 

well, yielding a sampling error of only 5.4 percent 

for the 1.2 million acres of Kenai area forest under 

study.

Regeneration of spruce seedlings in the study area was 

marginal to poor and there was strong evidence that 

spruce seedling establishment was being inhibited by 

grass competition and lodging. Birch seedlings were 

regenerating at a very acceptable rate, but because 

of heavy moose browse, few would reach growing 

stock size (5 inches dbh) without severe browsing by 

moose. As expected, the highest bank of phytomass 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 139

was found in the live and dead trees over 5 inches in 

dbh, with the distribution of phytomass being about 

equal between the live and dead growing stock trees. 

This is consistent with the fact that 41 percent of the 

spruce had been killed in the previous 6 years.

Understory phytomass was only about 2 percent of that 

found in the overstory with almost half of the understory phytomass occurring in shrub vegetation.

There was evidence of an increase in grass phytomass 

and a decrease in moss phytomass as the crown cover 

disappeared due to the bark beetles killing the spruce 

overstory, with grass phytomass in High and Moderate 

impact strata was found to be up to four times greater 

than in the Low and No impact strata.

In evaluating the down wood, the bark beetle killed 

trees were just beginning to fall down at the time of 

the study. This was more in evidence in the High 

impact strata. The down wood component should see 

significant increase in phytomass in the near future as 

more spruce trees fall down.

From a forest health perspective, only about 5 percent 

of the residual white and Lutz spruce trees were rated 

as having “at risk” tree health in 1998. However, about 

26 percent of the residual paper birch trees were rated 

as having “at risk” tree health. The paper birch was 

found to have almost four times as much basal area in 

the “at risk” tree health class as the spruce.

In a Chi-square test of accuracy, the standard fourpoint cluster used by FIA and FHM underperformed 

the larger 1.5 acre plot. The test was significant at the 

95 percent probability level.

Acknowledgments

There are many people who should be acknowledged 

for with these studies, and for a detail list, see the original publications. However, there are three agencies that 

need to be named for their support of these studies. They 

include:

Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of 

Forestry, Anchorage and Soldotna

U.S. Forest Service, Office of State and Private 

Forestry, Anchorage

U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Station, 

Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Anchorage

Literature Cited

ADNR, 1996. Alaska Department of Natural Resources and 

USDA Forest Service. Alaska forest insect and disease 

surveys, 1995. Annual Report prepared by Roger Burnside, 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Rebecca Zilliot, State of Alaska, Division of Forestry and 

Kathleen Mathews, USDA, Forest Service, Region 10, State 

and Private Forestry.

Bickford, C.A. 1952. The sampling design used in the forest 

survey of the Northeast. Journal of Forestry, 50(4):290-

293.

Brown, James, 1974. Handbook for inventorying downed 

woody material. General Technical Report INT-16. USDA, 

Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment 

Station, Ogden, Utah 23 pp.

Conklin, B. 1996. Forest Health Monitoring Field Methods 

Guide. US EPA and USDA, Forest Service, Research 

Triangle Park, NC.

Freese, Frank. 1960. Testing accuracy. Forest Science 6 (2) 

139-145.

LaBau, V.J. 1998. Results of a pilot study to evaluate spruce 

bark beetle-induced tree mortality on the Kenai Peninsula, 

1997. University of Alaska Anchorage, Environment and 

Natural Resources Institute, 27 pp. and appendix (about 

73 pp).

LaBau, Vernon J. and Hazard, John W. 2000. An Analysis of 

Mortality Inventory Tally Using Large Plots, Compared 

to Tally Using Small Plot Clusters. In: Integrated tools 

for natural resources inventories in the 21st century. 

Proceedings of the IUFRO and SAF Inventory Working 

Group Conference, Boise, ID, August 16-20, 1998. Mark 

Hansen and Thomas Burk, Editors. USDA, Forest Service, 

North Central Station, St. Paul, MN. General Technical 

Report NC-212. pp.104-109.

LaBau, V. J. and Mead, B. R. 2001. Phytomass associated 

with the spruce beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis Kirby) 

epidemic on Kenai Peninsula and other Alaska studies. In: 

Proceedings of the Carbon Sequestering Conference, Alaska 

Reforestation Council, Anchorage, AK, May 24, 2000, John 

Alden, Editor. University of Alaska, Fairbanks. 10 pp.

LaBau, V.J. 2002. Updated results of a pilot study to evaluate 

spruce bark beetle-induced tree mortality on the Kenai 

Peninsula, 1997-1998. University of Alaska Anchorage, 

Environment and Natural Resources Institute, 24 pp.

LaBau, Vernon J. and Boughton, Jerry. 2003. Forest Health 

of Residual Stands Following Spruce Bark Beetle Attack, 

Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. In: Proceedings of the Society of 

American Foresters, 2002 National Convention, Winston 

Salem, NC, October 4-9, 2002, Bethesda, MD. pp. 142-

158.

Rothermel, Richard C. 1983. How to predict the spread and 

intensity of forest and range fires. General Technical Report 

INT-143. USDA, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and 

Range Experiment Station, Ogden, Utah 161 p.

Schulz, B. 1995. Changes over time in fuel-loading associated 

with spruce beetle-impacted stands of the Kenai Peninsula, 

Alaska. Technical Report R10-TP-53. USDA, Forest 

Service, Region 10, Office of State and Private Forestry, 

Anchorage, AK. 17 p.

VanHees, W.S., and Frederic R. Larson. 1991. Timberland 

resources of the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. 1987. Res. 

Bul. PNW-RB-180. Portland OR: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, 56 p.

Yarie, John and Bert R. Mead. 1988. Twig and foliar biomass 

estimation equations for major plant species in the Tanana 

River Basin of interior Alaska. Research Paper PNW-RP401. USDA, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, Portland, Oregon. 20 p.
140 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Northwestern Yunnan Province in southwestern China 

is considered a conservation ‘hot spot’ worldwide owing 

to its spectacular landscapes and abundant biological 

diversity (Myers and others 2000). This region is also 

home to three million people, whose lives depend on 

the sustainable utilization of its natural resources. Faced 

with rapidly changing socio-economic conditions and 

development expectations, however, some of their livelihood strategies (specifically, enhanced agricultural and 

livestock production, and the increased collection of 

wood and various non-timber forest products) are now 

threatening the area’s rich biodiversity (Li 2002, Xu and 

Wilkes 2004). As a consequence, northwestern Yunnan 

(NWY) is receiving much attention from the international conservation community, as well as all levels of 

the Chinese government.

The Nature Conservancy (TNC) was invited by the 

provincial government in 1998 to address the threats 

to biodiversity in the NWY using its collaborative and 

systematic ‘Conservation by Design’ process (TNC 

2001). Called the Yunnan Great Rivers Project (YGRP), 

the collaboration produced an ecoregional assessment in 

2002, which identified 19 conservation areas of biodiversity significance across the five ecoregions that intersect 

NWY (YGRPPT 2002).

Following the assessment phase, TNC and local 

partners then concentrated their efforts at five action 

sites within the YGRP to produce conservation plans 

Ground-Based Photomonitoring of Ecoregional Ecological 

Changes in Northwestern Yunnan, China

James P. Lassoie, Professor, International Conservation and Kiran E. Goldman, Project 

Assistant, Department of Natural Resources, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, 

Cornell University, Ithaca NY

Robert K. Moseley, Director of Conservation Science, The Nature Conservancy, Kunming, 

Yunnan, 650051, China 

Abstract—Barring abrupt natural or anthropogenic disasters, ecological changes in terrestrial landscapes proceed at a pace not readily detected by humans. The use of historical 

repeat photography can provide valuable information about such changes, but, these 

studies are opportunistic in that they must rely on old photographs. Hence, their ecological 

interpretative power is compromised by the intention of the original photographer, the 

quality of the original photographs, an incomplete and potentially misrepresentative sampling design, and a limited analytical framework for interpreting ecological changes. The 

Nature Conservancy (TNC) has been using historical repeat photography to document 

ecological changes in northwestern Yunnan Province as part of its conservation planning 

efforts in China. This experience supported the development of a forward-sampling, 

ground-based, photomonitoring methodology designed around a high quality digital 

camera and a comprehensive database management system, which was tested during 

the summer and fall of 2003 across two adjacent ecoregions in northwestern Yunnan: the 

Hengduan Mountains and the Nujiang-Lancang Gorge. Based on results from a collaborative ecoregional conservation assessment for the region, visual indicators obtainable from 

the resulting photographs were identified and used to assess the threat status (for example, 

logging, grazing, mining) for five key ecosystem conservation targets (cold evergreen oak, 

evergreen broadleaf forest, mixed forest, subalpine forests, alpine mosaic). A sampling 

design strategy then was developed based on the inherent geographical variation in the 

distribution of targets, ethnic minorities (a surrogate for land-use), and climatic zones 

(based on precipitation and temperature) across the region. This distribution information is being used to design photomonitoring transects for establishing the baseline for 

the long-term monitoring of ecological changes. The photographic temporal assessment 

that eventually will result will help assess conservation and development activities across 

geographically extensive and diverse ecoregions, and serve as a means for monitoring 

the outcomes of conservation programs at specific locations.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 141

and strategies for effectively protecting and enhancing 

biodiversity and the livelihoods of local people (Moseley 

and others 2004). However, TNC and the Yunnan government also are concerned about conservation and rural 

development across the portfolio of 19 conservation areas 

of biodiversity significance identified during the ecoregional assessment. While some species-level inventories 

exist and detailed vegetation maps are being assembled 

for the region, there has been little research on important 

landscape-level questions, such as rates of ecosystem 

succession, scale and frequency of disturbance regimes, 

and patterns and intensity of past and ongoing threats to 

conservation targets (Moseley 2004).

TNC has been using repeat historical photography (for 

example, see Rogers 1984, Hall 2001, Turner and others 2003) to understand rates and patterns of ecosystem 

change under varying land-uses, to set realistic goals for 

conservation programs, and to establish reliable methods 

for measuring conservation successes (Moseley 2004). 

Such investigations also provide a base for developing 

a comprehensive photomonitoring system for the entire 

YGRP. Such forward-sampling, ecological studies of 

landscape changes are very important to designing and 

implementing sustainable conservation and management 

strategies (Lunt 2002, Pickard 2002) and, hence, are 

critical to the future of biodiversity and local people in 

NWY, and elsewhere.

Here we report the development of a relatively simple, 

yet rigorous, methodology that employs ground-based, 

repeat photography as an extensive, efficient, and costeffective means for monitoring ecological changes at the 

landscape level across expansive ecoregions. Specifically, 

this study: (1) designs, tests, and refines an image capturing and processing workflow methodology that includes 

image and metadata management; (2) develops and tests 

an indicator-based analytical framework for assessing 

ecological changes identifiable and quantifiable from 

oblique, ground-based photographs; and (3) designs a 

sampling methodology for selecting photomonitoring 

transects representative of spatial and temporal variations 

in landscapes across NWY.

Study Area

This study was conducted across the Yunnan Great 

Rivers Project (YGRP), an area of over 66,000 km2, 

comprising 15 counties and four prefectures (fig. 1). The 

region’s biophysical uniqueness arises from its location 

between the Qinghai-Tibet and the Yunnan-Guizhou 

Plateaus and from the four major rivers (Jinsha, Lancang, 

Nu, and Dulong) that cut deep, parallel gorges in the 

landscape all within 90 km of one another. This results 

in very steep elevation gradients that can rise from river 

valleys below 1500 m to glaciated peaks at over 6500 

m within a distance of 20 km or less. Although at a subtropical latitude, the region’s climate is characteristically 

temperate, modified by a summer monsoon season leading to warm, wet summers and cool, dry winters. The 

topographic extremes that characterize the region cause 

major microclimatic differences associated with changes 

in elevation, slope, and aspect.

The region’s wide ranging environmental conditions 

support a biological diversity that rivals that found in the 

tropics (CBD 2001). Five World Wildlife Fund (WWF) 

ecoregions (Olson and Dinerstein 1998) are found within 

the YGRP, the largest being the Nujiang-Lancang Gorge 

and the Hengduan Mountains (fig. 1). Ten different 

vegetation types occur across the region with the most 

important being the alpine mosaic and a variety of natural 

forest ecosystems, the latter covering over 60 percent of 

region (Xu and Wilkes 2004).

All landscapes in NWY have been influenced by 

human activities for thousands of years. Population 

density is relatively low, especially compared to eastern 

China, and except for a few modest urban centers, most 

people live in rural areas. Although income-generating 

endeavors are becoming more important, local people 

historically have focused on subsistence agriculture, including livestock production and the collection of plants 

and animals from natural areas. All but two counties in 

the YGRP are considered poverty counties under the 

Chinese classification system. Fourteen ethnic minority 

groups are living within the region, which is significant 

because of their differing cultures and practices relative 

to land-use (Xu and Wilkes 2004).

Methods

Workflow Development

An extensive review of repeat photography literature 

and modern photographic techniques and equipment was 

conducted. Equipment had to be durable and dependable 

under wet or dusty field conditions, extremely portable, 

able to take and process potentially thousands of images, 

and capable of daily operation for multiple weeks without 

access to AC power. We examined data management programs for their comprehensive capabilities to catalogue 

a large number of images in formats useful for future 

analysis. Back up and archival needs were examined in 

relation to current technology. A comprehensive workflow was designed in Ithaca, New York during the first 

half of 2003, and tested during the summer and fall in 

NWY, all leading to a refined system for image capture, 

management, and storage.
142 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 1. Map Showing Location of the Yunnan and Yunnan Great Rivers Project (YGRP) in Relation to Five 

World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Ecoregions.

Analytical Framework

Critical to the successful use of repeated photographs 

for measuring the impacts of conversation programs 

is the analytical framework for interpreting indicators 

of change to biodiversity and threats. TNC’s four-part 

conservation framework called ‘Conservation by Design’ 

provides this important analytical context (TNC 2001). 

The framework was developed to systematically focus 

conservation action on priority biodiversity and critical 

threats in a dynamic, adaptive process involving setting 

geographic and threat priorities through ecoregional 

assessments, developing strategies, taking actions, and 

measuring conservation impacts (Groves and others 

2002, Groves 2003).

The conservation planning framework for ecoregional 

assessments includes four steps relevant to the current 

study: (1) selecting focal conservation targets from the 

universe of possible species and ecosystems, (2) setting

representation and quality goals for conservation targets, 

(3) evaluating the ability of conservation targets to persist (in other words, assessing viability and ecological 

integrity) and (4) selecting and designing a network of 

conservation areas of biodiversity significance (Groves 

2003). Because Conservation by Design is an adaptive 

process, it requires monitoring the conservation status of 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 143

ecoregions. Critical attributes of ecoregional measures 

include:

Tracking progress toward quantitative goals set for 

each conservation target during ecoregional assessments.

Informing whether current management is sufficient 

to protect the viability and persistence of conservation 

targets in the long run.

Providing a gauge of conservation priorities and 

whether they should shift as environmental conditions 

change over time.

Measuring threat status within an ecoregion to provide 

an ‘early warning system’ to detect changes more 

quickly than relying solely on biodiversity health 

measures.

After completing the YGRP ecoregional assessment, 

we developed a monitoring framework of 28 prioritized 

indicators—nine being health indicators (for example, 

size, erosion, fragmentation) for conservation targets and 

19 being threat indicators (for example, unsustainable 

collection of fuelwood and non-timber forest products, 

over-grazing, mining). This ecoregional photomonitoring 

methodology is designed to assess several of these threat 

and target health indicators that are observable from examining photographs of landscapes. These were tested 

for usefulness based on earlier work using historical 

photographs by Moseley (2004). Additional land cover, 

land-use, development infrastructures, geopolitical and 

conservation classifications were developed based on 

experience in the study area. Combined, all were used 

as ‘keywords’ for classifying images taken during the 

2003 field season.

Sampling Design

A unique feature of the work presented is the 

development of a sampling methodology that accurately represents the diversity inherent across extensive 

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•

•

•

ecoregions. Even stratified randomization is inoperable 

here owing to the extent of the areas involved, challenges 

of accessibility in rugged landscapes, and the need to 

gain a landscape perspective that is often distant from 

the indicator(s) under consideration. Our approach was 

to stratify the study area by features central to the analytical framework and then to use TNC’s GIS database to 

determine the area represented by each. This work was 

carried out during the summer of 2004 in preparation 

for the fall field season. The features examined were: (1) 

WWF ecoregions, (2) conservation areas of biodiversity 

significance identified during the ecoregional assessment, (3) distribution of key conservation targets from 

the ecoregional assessment, (4) principle ethnic minority 

present (a surrogate for culturally based land-use practices), and (5) modeled climatic zones (B. Baker, Climate 

Change Scientist, TNC; personal communication) (table 

1). Next, we designed transects for obtaining ‘baseline’ 

photographs. The scheme devised sampled each feature 

proportional to its distribution within each stratum. For 

example, if the mixed forest target covers 34 percent of 

the Baima Conservation Area, then about 34 percent of 

the photographs in this area should be taken of this target. 

Each feature was examined in relation to one another 

to gain a qualitative assessment of the sampling needs. 

Since the location of roads and/or trails is critical logistically, accessibility also was addressed when designing 

transect locations.

Results and Discussion

Workflow Development

The workflow process was designed to yield images and their supporting metadata that could be used 

in the analysis of indicators of landscape change over 

time (discussed later). It consisted of four interrelated 

steps: (1) initial image capture, metadata collection, and 

Table 1. Features used to stratify Yunnan Great Rivers Project area to determine photomonitoring sampling design.

Feature Elements

Ecoregions (n = 5) e.g., Hengduan Mountains, Nujiang-Lancang Gorge, Yunnan Plateau

Conservation Areas (n = 19) e.g., Baima, Nushan, Zhongdian Highlands

Conservation Targets CEO: cold evergreen oak; EBF: evergreen broadleaf forest; MF: mixed forest

SAF: subalpine forests; AM: alpine mosaic (shrub, meadow, scree)

Ethnic Minorities (n = 14) e.g., Lisu, Naxi, Tibetan

Climatic Zones (Clusters) 1: hot summers, cool winters, very wet; 

2: cool summers, cold winters, moderate precipitation;

3: warm summers, cool winters, moderate precipitation;

4: warm summers, warm winters, moderate precipitation;

5: warm summers, cool winters, dry
144 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

temporary storage; (2) imaging processing; (3) image and 

metadata management; and (4) storage of working and 

archival data files. It is presented in generic fashion, but 

specifications for all equipment and software are available from the senior author. Although the entire process 

could be conducted under field conditions, it was found 

that inclement weather conditions and the lack of AC 

power over long periods of time made computer processing difficult, thus making all but the image capture step 

better suited for the office.

Image capture

The system was built around a professional quality, 

high resolution, digital single lens reflex camera capable 

of accepting exchangeable lenses. Such cameras offer 

many options for capturing, modifying, and storing images. For this study, settings were selected to maximize 

the quality of resulting images, which simplifies to holding the camera steady and striving for the highest quality 

captures possible. A sturdy tripod matched with a ball 

head was used to precisely position the camera enabling 

level, overlapping images typically representing views 

of 180-360o and, as necessary, to hold it steady during 

long exposures. A low effective ISO rating (125 – 200) 

was used to reduce digital noise (similar to grain in film 

cameras). Images were taken in the RAW 12-bit data file 

format yielding uncompressed files approximately 8 MB 

in size. When storage capacity in the field was limited, 

RAW files were compressed by 50 to 60 percent using 

a proprietary process reported to cause only a minor 

loss in image quality (Cardinal and Peterson 2002). The 

RAW format yields unadjusted data from the camera’s 

CCD sensor, thus providing the greatest amount of image information possible while also allowing the greatest 

amount of post-exposure manipulation (Cardinal and 

Peterson 2001).

Lens quality is an important variable in photography 

and various high quality professional zoom lenses representing digital camera focal lengths from 30 to 600 mm 

were tested during the 2003 field season. Based on this 

work, two new lenses designed for the digital camera 

were purchased for the 2004 field season. These yield an 

effective focal length range of 18 to 180 mm, which is 

well suited to expansive landscapes typical of NWY.

In-camera image capture and temporary storage capacities must be relatively fast and large owing to the 

large files involved. Although we found that carrying two 

512 MB cards provided enough storage capacity for two 

or three days of intensive photo-sampling, there was a 

need to have a portable image storage unit during longer 

trips into remote areas. A number of rechargeable storage devices are available, the most useful and expensive 

being those capable of image display. However, because 

of a concern over battery longevity, we used a relatively 

inexpensive (about US$200), 220-volt rechargeable, 20 

GB Chinese unit that lacked image display capabilities. 

The major considerations when deciding to rely on such 

devices are their battery life, durability under adverse 

conditions, and their cost relative to purchasing multiple, 

in-camera storage cards. For this project, having three or 

four 1 GB cards would be sufficient storage for a field trip 

lasting two weeks, thus forgoing the uncertainty of an additional piece of battery-powered equipment. The use of 

multiple cards is recommended because of the possibility 

of malfunctioning of a single, large-capacity card.

The rechargeable proprietary battery used in our 

camera proved to be long lasting under the conditions of 

this study (approximately 100 images/day, no flash, and 

limited use of the camera’s LCD screen), and two were 

sufficient for trips lasting up to two weeks. However, 

digital cameras, and most of their modern film counterparts, are totally inoperable without battery power. 

Hence, adequate back up is a must – this project used a 

30-watt, 220-volt rechargeable unit during long periods 

in the field. The auxiliary battery also allowed greater use 

of the camera’s LCD screen to examine tonal histograms 

in the field leading to improved exposures (Cardinal and 

Peterson 2001).

Metadata associated with each image arose from two 

sources. First, the camera tags an EXIF (Exchangeable 

Image File Format; see: http://www.exif.org/) text file 

to all images that provides a record of shooting information (for example, date, time file format, lens, focal 

length, shutter speed, etc.). In addition, when properly 

connected to a GPS unit (Cardinal and Peterson 2002), 

longitude, latitude, and elevation are added to this file. 

Comments also can be added at the time of downloading 

images to the computer. The second source of metadata 

was a written record of location; transect, stop, and view 

numbers; weather conditions; and camera compass and 

tilt orientations. This information was added to each 

image’s IPTC (International Press Telecommunications 

Council; see: http://www.iptc.org/metadata/) file during 

the image processing stage.

Imaging processing

Once in the office, RAW images from the camera’s 

storage cards (or the storage unit) were transferred to a 

high capacity laptop computer using proprietary transfer 

software. These were opened using 12-bit RAW software 

and adjusted as needed (for example, tonal range, color 

balance, sharpening, white balance, etc.) to provide the 

high quality images possible. Camera data from the EXIF 

files were automatically added to the IPTC files while 

written information had to be added manually. These images can be opened in any professional image processing 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 145

software and further manipulated as needed. All images 

were numbered consecutively from 00000 and stored in 

folders by transect.

Image and metadata management

A high capacity, versatile professional software package was used for image and data management. This 

program uses low-resolution ‘thumbnail’ images linked 

to original files, which are rapidly searchable using a 

system of predetermined keywords and custom fields (for 

example, date/time, numbers, text, etc.). Each thumbnail 

also carries general information that is not searchable (for 

example, title, IPTC data, information about the image 

file and when it was catalogued, etc.).

The linchpin for any searchable database is the development of standardized framework for cataloging 

individual pieces of stored information. For this study, 

such characterizations had to describe visible or otherwise discernable indicators of impacts or threats on key 

conservation targets. Custom fields were designed for 

this study primarily to identify photomonitoring locations 

in relation to geographical, ethnic, conservation, and 

political boundaries (table 2), while keywords focused 

on identification of ecoregional conservation targets, 

land cover, land-use, infrastructure, and disturbance 

(table 3).

Data storage

Great care was taken in developing and utilizing a 

multiple storage/archival system owing to the large 

investment of time and money that was required to 

obtain the original images. Original RAW images and 

resulting processed images were backed up on the laptop 

computer’s secondary hard disk and a portable hard disk, 

as well as archived on a desktop workstation’s hard disk 

and on high quality DVDs. The final image database 

catalogue was backed up on the portable hard disk and 

archived on a high quality CD-R.

Analytical framework

The YGRP ecoregional monitoring framework identified indicators for discerning trends in key conservation 

Table 2. Custom fields used for cataloging images in database management system.

Custom Field Name	 Definition

Camera Orientation Direction (degrees) camera is pointed for image

County County where image is located (n =16)

Ecoregions Ecoregion where image is located (multiple entries possible) (N = 5)

Ethnic Groups Ethnic groups found in area image is located (multiple entry possible) (N = 14)

Focal Length Lens focal length (mm) used for image

GPS Latitude (UTM), Longitude (UTM), and Altitude (m)

Image Repeat # (0=original) Identifies whether image is original, 1st retake, 2nd retake, etc.

Location/Directions Description of the location and directions to photo-stop

Miscellaneous Other information including whether telephoto lens is used, whether camera is tilted up or 

down, whether there was a mistake in the shot, or whether the image is linked to other 

projects (e.g., Alpine Ecosystem Project, Historical Repeat Photography Project, etc.)

Conservation Areas TNC identified Conservation Areas where image is taken in (multiple entries possible) 

(n = 19)

Prediction/Significance Comments on whether we predict any changes or see any significant impacts worth mention

Prefecture Prefecture that image is taken

Protected Area If applicable, government protected area where image is taken

Stop Code The photo-stop number along the given transect

TNC Conservation Action Area If applicable, TNC Conservation Action area where image is taken (N =5)

Transect Code Transect number (e.g., 1-15 for 2003 field season)

View Code View number for a given photo-stop number

Weather, Air/Light Quality Description of weather and air/light quality when image is taken

Table 3. Selected list of keywords used in image database.

Ecoregional Targets Land Cover Land Use Infra-structure Disturbance

alpine mosaic warm conifer commercial logging bridges disturbed forest

forest

evergreen broad-leaf forest warm scrub crop fields roads human caused fire

mixed forest upper/lower grazing trails logging roads

timberline

dark needle conifer forest humid shrub horticulture public utilities natural forest disturbance

deciduous broad-leaf forest arid grassland fuelwood harvesting seasonal houses skid trails

cold evergreen oak forest lacustrine aquatic mines & mining towns & villages soil erosion
146 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

targets and related threats. As illustrated in table 4

for the Evergreen Oak Forest Target in the Hengduan 

Mountains Ecoregion, this information was used to 

generate related indicators of changes in target health 

that could be visually detected from landscape images. 

These were in turn either tied to specific keywords used 

to catalogue landscape images in the database (table 3) 

or were detectable from examining changes in the target 

over time (for example, structural changes in canopy, 

extent of burning or clearing, etc.). Figure 2 illustrates 

how a few of these indicators appear in an image from 

about 3900 m in one conservation area in the Hengduan 

Mountains Ecoregion.

When accessing the image database, custom fields are 

used to restrict the search to certain ecoregions, specific 

conservation areas, and/or other geopolitical units (table 

2), and then keywords (table 3) are used to further sort 

for conservation concerns. For example, all photographs 

of dark needle forests (with their respective ICPT information), in Baima Conservation Area and also Deqin 

County, that show commercial logging, logging roads, 

and soil erosion can be quickly located from a catalogue 

of thousands of images from across the entire YGRP 

area. The power of the system as a search engine is 

obvious, but its real value to this project arises from its 

use as an analytical framework for assessing changes in 

conservation targets and threats over time.

This project has developed a new methodology that 

will be used for an initial survey to document ‘baseline’ 

conditions of the YGRP. Hence, comparison photographs will not be available until some time in the 

future. However, Moseley’s (2004) historical repeat 

photography work makes it possible to test the potential 

interpretative value of having an extensive set of paired 

and well-documented photographs for all conservation 

targets across all ecoregions and conservation areas in 

the YGRP area. For example, Moseley (2004) presented 

two photographs separated by almost 80 years looking 

into a Tibetan alpine valley in the Nushan Conservation 

Area. This comparison illustrated marked increases in the 

ecological impacts of yak grazing on the Alpine Mosaic 

Conservation Target: increased number of trails through 

meadows and rhododendron shrublands, increased 

number of herder camps, and reduced cover of juniper 

shrublands due to burning. The conclusion was, at least 

for this area, that there has been an increase in grazing 

pressure by yaks during the past 80 years. Moseley (2004) 

went on to analyze 115 paired photographs basically assessing whether they showed an increase, decrease, or no 

change in area or density of various land cover (for example, settlements, glaciers, lower and alpine treelines) and 

vegetation (for example, crop fields, subalpine forests, 

alpine meadows) types, drawing ecological and conservation conclusions based on the changes observed. This 

‘qualitative’ assessment of temporal ecological change 

has been a common and useful approach to interpreting 

repeated historical photographs (for example, Meagher 

and Houston 1998).

However, the high quality images resulting from this 

methodology offer more options for interpretation. Figure 

3 illustrates the same valley just discussed, but taken in 

the fall of 2003. The ability to digitally ‘stitch’ multiple 

images together into panoramas greatly enhances the 

landscape perspective over single images, and the use 

of high-resolution color strikingly improves the ability 

to discern vegetation, landscape, and land-use features 

Table 4. Example of indicator matrix for Evergreen Oak Forest Target in the Hengduan Mountains Ecoregion.

Target Threat Target Health Category Visual Indicators

Evergreen Oak Fuelwood Size Clearing

Forest Condition Structural changes

Extraction methods

Livestock Bedding Condition Structural changes

Tourism & Infrastructure Size (loss of native habitat) Roads, Buildings/structures for 

tourism, trails, cableways, billboards

Condition (erosion, pollution) Roads, Buildings/structures for 

tourism, trails, cableways, billboards

Landscape context (fragmentation) Roads, Buildings/structures for 

tourism, trails, cableways, billboard

Mining Size (loss of native habitat) Mines, roads, waste material, 

buildings, impacts to hydrology, 

evidence of soil erosion

Condition (erosion, pollution) Mines, roads, waste material, 

buildings, impacts to hydrology, 

evidence of soil erosion

Landscape context (fragmentation) Mines, roads, waste material, 

buildings, impacts to hydrology, 

evidence of soil erosion
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 147

over using black and white images, which is necessary 

when comparing them to historical photographs. In addition, the high image quality means that post-capture 

digital enlargements or telephoto images in the field of 

portions of a landscape can provide excellent details for 

fine-scale interpretations.

Sampling Design

A significant limitation of repeat historical photography as an ecological tool is the inherent lack of a sampling 

methodology that assures representative coverage of 

natural variation within and between ecologically diverse 

areas (Pickard 2002, Moseley 2004). This study attempted to overcome this problem by first examining the 

general variation represented across the YGRP, and then 

by designing a series of photomonitoring transects that 

proportionally sampled this variation. A comprehensive 

GIS database, developed by TNC, was used to examine 

the variation in key features across the region (table 1). 

The proportional coverage of particular targets for each 

conservation area was found to best serve the purposes of 

this study (table 5). Distribution maps of dominant ethnic 

minority groups and climatic zones were used in refining 

the sampling conclusions arising from an examination of 

the proportion of targets sampled (discussed later).

2003 data set

During the summer and fall of 2003, 15 transects 

along roads and trails were conducted in NWY, yielding 

157 geo-referenced photo-points and 1501 images (fig. 

4). Overlapping, multiple images at different camera 

orientations were taken at each photo-point to allow 

photomontages (fig. 4) and to avoid the ‘subject bias’ 

criticism commonly directed at historical repeat photography studies (Pickard 2002). This data set primarily 

served to test and refine the methodological workflow 

Figure 2. Visual Indicators in an Image 

from Shangri-La Gorge Conservation 

Area, Hengduan Mountain Ecoregion, 

Yunnan Great Rivers Project.

Figure 3. 2003 Three-Image Photomontage of Alpine Pasture from Dokela Pass in Nushan Conservation Area, Yunnan 

Great Rivers Project. (see fig. 3 and text for explanation).
148 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

discussed earlier. As such, the focus was on developing 

appropriate camera techniques and image and metadata management, and not on acquiring a representative 

sample. Hence, some images and transects were flawed 

making their analysis difficult. However, those that were 

adequate for the purpose of analysis, particularly transects from the latter part of the 2003 field season (fall), 

will become part of the baseline sample (discussed in 

the next section).

Fieldtrips were opportunistic in that they took advantage of trips arranged for other TNC program purposes. 

As a result photographs came from only two (Hengduan 

Mountains and the Nujiang-Lancang Gorge) of the 

area’s five ecoregions, and only three (Baima, Nushan, 

and Zhongdian Highlands) of its 19 conservation areas. 

Only three minority groups (Lisu, Nu, and Tibetan) 

were represented out of 14 inhabiting the region. All 

five conservation targets were sampled, but since much 

of the fieldwork was conducted in association with 

TNC’s Alpine Ecosystem Ecology Project, there was a 

disproportionate sampling of the Subalpine Forest and 

Alpine Mosaic targets relative to their areas. For similar 

reasons, almost 90 percent of the images represented 

landscapes influenced by Tibetan communities, as they 

predominately graze livestock at higher elevations 

throughout the YGRP area (Xu and Wilkes 2004).

Baseline sample

The three conservation areas surveyed in 2003 were 

examined to determine voids in the database and to 

design transects needed to complete the coverage of 

the variation represented by the conservation targets, 

principle ethnic minorities present, and the climatic 

zones. For example, for Baima additional images of the 

Subalpine Forests Target are needed in the northern portion of the area (table 5), and a complete sampling scheme 

is needed for the southern portion in order adequately 

represent the area’s distribution of two additional ethnic 

groups and two additional climatic zones (fig. 5).When 

working in this southern portion, transects and photopoints will be established to sample the distribution of 

targets proportional to their representation (table 5),

Next, the locations of the transects required to cover 

the sampling requirements need to be determined. Owing 

to the rugged topography, existing roads and trails must 

serve as transect paths. Fortunately, the long history of 

human use in NWY means that trails are common, even 

across the most isolated regions. GIS-generated maps 

show the general location of roads and trails in relation 

to conservation targets (fig. 5), but determining the exact 

location of transects requires input from professionals 

and local people knowledgeable of the region.

Future sampling

The baseline photomonitoring survey will be completed over the next two or three years, yielding thousands 

of images across the YGRP area. The health indicators 

identified in this project change relatively slowly, but 

there is little doubt that repeated photographs 50-100 

years hence will illustrate marked differences (Moseley 

2004). However, if repeat photomonitoring is to be useful 

to conservation planning by TNC and others, it must yield 

insights much quicker, within a decade or less.

It is expected that photo-sample points will be relocated and landscapes re-photographed in 3-8 years. 

This time period will illustrate relatively little ecological 

change in undisturbed landscapes. However, socio-economic conditions are changing quickly in NWY leading 

to rapid changes in land-use and infrastructure, which are 

represented by changes in threat indicators. For example, 

a current government program aimed at rehabilitating 

many over-grazed lands is fencing thousands of hectares 

Table 5. Comparison of photomonitoring coverage of five conservation targets relative to their geographical extent for three 

conservation areas.

Conservation Targetsb

Conservation Total for

Areas all Areaa EBF CEO SAF MF AM

Images Area Images Area Images Area Images Area Images Area Images Area

% % % % % % % % % % % %

Baima 14 18 2 1 5 6 41 47 25 4 42 28

Nushan 20 18 <1 4 0 1 17 35 37 12 35 23

Zhongdian 48 24 0 <1 10 2 50 46 10 6 34 35

Highlands

a Images N = 1501; Area N = 3.033 x 106

 ha for 19 areas b

 See Table 1 for codes c Percentages of images from conservation area (N: Baima = 202, Nushan = 303, Zhongdian Highlands = 726; 270 of 1501 were from outside the 

conservation areas) d

Percentage of conservation area
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 149

Figure 4. Location of 2003 

Photo-points Across three 

Conservation Areas in the 

Yunnan Great Rivers Project 

(YGRP) Area.

across the region (‘Grazing to Grassland’), roads are being built to improve access to remote areas as well as to 

open new routes for mining and tourism development, 

and the 1998 logging ban remains in effect. In addition, 

intensive conservation efforts underway by TNC and 

other organizations and government agencies are influencing indicators of target health and threats. Hence, it 

is highly probable, depending on the location, the degree 

of human disturbance, and the type and extent of conservation interventions, that marked changes in certain 

landscapes might be detected within a few years. How 

TNC and its partners address these changes in relation 

to their conservation activities across the YGRP area is a 

challenge they are currently addressing. In any case, the 

systematic and complete ecoregional photomonitoring of 

NWY will provide one tool, an analyzed visual database, 

to help with such determinations.

Conclusions

This project developed a forward-sampling, groundbased photomonitoring system for examining ecological 

changes in landscapes within five major ecoregions in 
150 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

northwestern Yunnan, China. It is unique in its design, 

as other studies rely on historical photographs to support 

conclusions concerning the present ecological conditions 

of the landscapes in question. The approach reported 

will yield a comprehensive inventory of such conditions 

over time and a means for analyzing visual indicators of 

ecological change across extensive ecoregion.

Three features of this study are critical to its future 

success as a tool for measuring the impact of conservation 

programs. First, is the use of high quality photography 

techniques and the efficient management of the resulting 

images and metadata. Second, is the design of an analytical framework for identifying and measuring visual 

indicators of change that are tied to a comprehensive 

conservation planning scheme, here TNC’s Conservation 

by Design process. Lastly, is the design of a sampling 

methodology that accounts for the variation inherent in 

the ecoregions under consideration.

This project was designed within a conservation 

context specific to protecting biodiversity and local 

livelihoods in northwestern Yunnan. Hence, it will prove 

useful in monitoring not only TNC-specific activities in 

the region, but also the efforts of other organizations and 

government agencies concerned with the conservation 

and sustainable development of this particular biodiversity hotspot. However, this methodology also should be 

adaptable to other locations and different conservation 

contexts – especially situations where detailed ecological 

data are sparse, access to aerial photographs and satellite data is limited, and relatively rapid and inexpensive 

landscape-level or ecoregional inventories are needed.

References

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Press, Mammoth Lakes, California. 255 p.

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California. CD-R. 101 p.

CBD (Convention on Biological Diversity). 2001. Global 

biodiversity outlook. Secretariat of the Convention on 

Biological Diversity, Montreal, Canada. (1 November 2002; 

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Groves, C. G. 2003. Drafting a conservation blueprint. Island 

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Groves, C. G.; Jensen, D. B.; Valutis, L. L.; Redford, K. H.; 

Shaffer, M. L.; Scott, J. M.; Baumgartner, J. V.; Higgins, 

J. V.; Beck, M. W.; Anderson, M. G. 2002. Planning for 

biodiversity conservation: putting conservation science into 

practice. BioScience. 52(6): 499-512.

Hall, F. C. 2001. Ground-based photographic monitoring. 

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Station, Portland, Oregon. 340 p.

Li, Bo. 2002. The lost horizon: in search of communitybased natural resource management in nature reserves of 

northwest Yunnan, China. MS Thesis, Cornell University, 

Ithaca, New York. 257 p.

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biology of time: photographs across a century. University 

of Oklahoma Press, Norman, Oklahoma. 287 p.

Moseley, R. K. 2004. Ninety years of landscape change in 

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Journal. (in press).

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mountain protected areas: challenges and responses for 

the 21st century. Andromeda Editrice, Colledara, Italy: 

227-234.

Myers, N.; Mittermeier, R. A.; Mittermeier, C. G.; da Fonseca, 

G. A. B.; Kent, J. 2000. Biodiversity hotspots for conservation priorities. Nature. 403(6772): 853-858.

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representation approach to conserving Earth’s most 

biologically valuable ecoregions. Conservation Biology 

12(3): 502-515.

Pickard, J. 2002. Assessing vegetation change over a century 

using repeat photography. Australian Journal of Botany. 

50(4): 409-414.

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of repeat photography for evaluating landscape change. 

University of Utah Press, Salt Lake City, Utah. 179 p.

TNC (The Nature Conservancy). 2001. Conservation by 

design: a framework for mission success. The Nature 

Conservancy, Arlington, Virginia. (5 October 2003; www.

conserveonline.org).

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J. 2003. The changing mile revisited: an ecological study 

of vegetation change with time in the lower mile of an 

arid and semiarid region. The University of Arizona Press, 

Tucson, Arizona. 334 p.

Xu, J.C.; Wilkes, A. 2004. Biodiversity impact analysis in 

northwest Yunnan, southwest China. Biodiversity and 

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Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank Dr. Ruth Sherman, 

Cornell University, for her editorial suggestions and 

Mr. Wu Ning, Peking University, for his assistance with 

the GIS analysis used in developing the sample design 

strategy and for helping to draft the figures used in this 

paper.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 151

Figure 5. Distribution of 2003 Photo-points in Relation 

to Conservation Targets, Ethnic Minorities, 

Climatic Clusters (Zones) (see table 1 for key), 

and Trails and Roads in Baima Conservation 

Area, Nujiang-Lancang Gorge Ecoregion, 

Yunnan Great Rivers Project (YGRP).
152 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

In 2003, Maine’s legislature charged the Department 

of Environmental Protection, Bureau of Air Quality, with 

a statutory requirement to produce an annual statewide 

Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission inventory. The federal 

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), through its 

contractor, and with input from the USDA Forest Service, 

developed a spreadsheet program to assist individual 

states in compiling their GHG inventories. The spreadsheet program has built-in default inventory data, with 

an option for users to input their own data in order to 

improve the prediction accuracy of various sub-accounts. 

The default inputs utilize Maine’s 1995 USDA Forest 

Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) Periodic 

Inventory, without updating, to estimate forested conditions for the base year of 2000. The spreadsheet estimated 

that the “Land Use Change and Forestry” (LUCF) account provided 15 percent of the CO2 emissions (fig. 1). 

Both the magnitude and direction of this estimate were 

counter to recent annual inventory reports, released by 

the Maine Forest Service (MFS), estimating increased 

forestland coverage and biomass stocking over the period 

of 1995 to 2002 (Laustsen 2003).

Additional investigation and discussion determined 

that the soils carbon component represented nearly 60 

percent of predicted emissions in the total forest carbon flux. For the initial base estimate, the 1990 Forest 

Carbon Flux uses updated estimates of Maine’s 1982 

FIA Periodic Inventory as reported in the 1987 Resource 

Planning Act Assessment (RPA). The ending base estimates a 2000 Forest Carbon Flux using Maine’s 1995 

Periodic Inventory as reported in the 1997 RPA. The 

inconsistent treatment and updating of the base estimates 

Carbon Pools—Checking the Deep End, Before Diving In 

(The ME Experience)

K. M. Laustsen, Biometrician, Maine Forest Service, Department of Conservation, 

Augusta, ME

Abstract—Maine’s initial Greenhouse Gas (GHG) estimates of the Land Use Change 

and Forestry (LUCF) sub-accounts predicted that this account supplied 15 percent of 

the net emissions in 2000. The magnitude and direction of this estimate ran counter to 

internal assumptions and the recently published analysis on multiple and positive forest inventory changes for the period of 1995 to 2002. The major cause was the simple 

assignment and linkage of a forest soil’s organic carbon level to a single specific forest 

type group. Carbon emissions were predicted as a result of changes in the forest type 

distribution over successive periodic and annual inventories (1980 to 2002). In general, plots transitioned from previous softwood to a new hardwood forest type group, 

creating an assumed and immediate diminution in the underlying soil’s organic carbon 

level. Improved carbon flux estimations were obtained by: the use of a single foresttyping algorithm to ameliorate changes in the soil sub-account; incorporating regional 

and local biomass equations; utilizing FIA P3 DWM data; state level accounting of 

processed wood products and residues; and a structured analysis of land use coding 

for conversion and reversion rates.

Figure 1. CO2 Emission Estimates, Maine, 200.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 153

was further compounded with additional changes in classification techniques, sampling design, and FORCARB 

models.

In cooperation with the Durham, NH USDA Forest 

Service office, MFS was tasked with developing improved inventory and change estimates for the LUCF 

account (Smith and others, this proceedings).

Methods

An initial assessment provided a successful multistaged approach to improved estimation techniques:

Since a single national equation treats a given species 

the same everywhere, but truly does not represent 

that species well anywhere, MFS offered to review 

additional sources. Published sources of biomass 

equations were offered in an effort to identify more 

species-specific regional and local volume equations 

to replace the imbedded National equations utilized 

in FORCARB2 for bole, sapling, seedling, and 

understory vegetation estimates (Chase and others 

1978, Heath and others 2001, Honer and others 1983, 

Wharton and others 1998, Young and others 1980, 

Young and others 1967).

FIA Phase 3 data on down woody material (DWM) 

was incorporated to improve estimates of the forest 

floor and the down woody material (DWM) sub-account.

A repartitioning of harvested wood products, residue 

volumes, and import/export accounting was effected, 

based on historic MFS Wood Processor Reports. 

1.

2.

3.

Further analysis was required in order to obtain improvement in the two remaining pieces of the forest 

carbon flux dynamics.

The forest soils sub-account proved to be the most 

difficult to enhance and refine. This sub-account is set 

up as a simple look-up matrix, in that a single soils 

carbon value is linked to a single forest type group 

(MFTYP), regardless of stand age, stocking, or average tree size. The typing algorithm, however, uses 

relative assessments of each plot’s stocking, tree size, 

crown position, and species composition of primarily merchantable sized trees (5.0”+ d.b.h.) to assign 

MFTYP. The crux is that the forest typing algorithm 

and classification process underwent numerous alterations between the inventories of 1982, 1995, and 

2003. These imbedded changes confound any trend 

analysis in trying to determine whether the plot truly 

underwent natural or management dynamics and had 

a real type change or rather the algorithm just remixed 

the classification metrics and assigned a new MFTYP 

(table 1). The example cited most often is that between 

the 1982 and the 1995 Periodic Inventories, Maine’s 

Spruce-Fir MFTYP acreage decreased by approximately 2 million acres, with the bulk of the change 

showing up with increases in the Sugar Maple/Yellow 

Birch/Beech MFTYP. The associated soil carbon loss 

in this transition is over 50 tons per hectare and this 

change was simply averaged as a steady state 10-year 

emission.

The parties realized that changes in soil carbon are not 

that spontaneous, yet were very reluctant to imbed a no 

net soil carbon change. Some consideration was given 

4.

Table 1. Area of forestland by forest type group as originally published or current estimate, Maine.

Original & Published 1982 Original & Published 1995 Estimated 2003

Forest Type Group Forest Type Group Forest Type Group

Forest Type Group (Forestland Acres) (Forestland Acres) (Forestland Acres)

Aspen/W. Birch 1,504,900 2,249,600 2,341,937

Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 238,200 434,700 407,184

Other Forestland - Untyped 547,200 751,410

Loblolly/Shortleaf 8,300 6,700 -

Maple/Beech/Y. Birch 5,000,900 6,408,800 7,055,581

Nonforested 2,229,400 2,064,200 2,033,849

Oak/Gum/Cypress - - 11,720

Oak/Hickory 306,500 453,200 320,044

Oak/Pine 36,200 127,600 334,384

Softwood Plantation - - 19,062

Spruce/Fir 7,770,500 6,011,200 5,819,039

White/Red/Jack Pine 2,194,700 1,245,900 1,359,302

Timberland - Nonstocked - - 49,293

Grand Total 19,836,800 19,753,310 19,751,394

Total Forestland 17,607,400 17,689,110 17,717,545

Total - Nonforested 2,229,400 2,064,200 2,033,849
154 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to modeling a logarithmic type growth/decay function, 

that would systematically approach the real change 

over some period of time, but there was no research 

available to help that progressive transition.

By May 2004, the Northeastern Research Station 

FIA Unit had already completed the validation 

and classification of Maine’s 1999 to 2003 Annual 

Inventory Panels using the new National Forest 

Typing Algorithm. That FIA unit had also completely 

rerun the plot sample from Maine’s 1995 Periodic 

Inventory using the same algorithm for a determination of real trends and changes in stocking, stand 

size, and forest types over this 8-year period. MFS 

requested and received the continued extension of this 

reclassification, using the same identical algorithm, to 

the plot sample in Maine’s 1982 Periodic Inventory. 

For the initial 1982 Periodic Inventory, this resulted 

in only 683 plots being retained and remeasured in 

the current 1999 to 2003 annualized inventory. The 

proposal was to use just the 683 remeasured plots as 

representative of the statewide transitions in carbon 

accounting.

Furthermore, ongoing MFS analysis raised suspicions 

about the validity of the 1995 tree level assessments of 

bole height and cull deduction. This lead to the decision to generate base estimates for 1982 and ending 

estimates for 2003 and derive average 20-year change 

components for all of the forest flux sub-accounts.

Another complication was that each of these three 

inventories used different county-level census acreage 

for their derived plot expansion factors. The MFS resolution was to utilize the current plot expansion factor 

(Census 2000) and 2003 Phase 1 stratum weights for 

both the base and final estimates, assuring additivity 

across time.

A better system of accounting for the conversion of 

forestland to non-forest and offsetting reversion of 

non-forest land uses to forestland was needed.

FIA uses the term “condition class” to identify and 

map areas of discrete landscape and forest attributes 

that identify and define different strata on the plot. 

A condition class is a unique combination of condition status, land use, owner group, forest type, stand 

origin, stand size, reserve status, stand density, and a 

disturbance/treatment history. The identification, delineation, and assignment of condition class evolved 

between the 1982 and the 2003 inventories. Protocols 

for Maine’s 1982 inventory were two-fold: newly 

established plots were forced to rotate until they represented a single condition class; while remeasured 

plots were assigned a single condition class based on 

the observed and encompassing attributes located at 

plot center.

5.

For Maine’s 1999 to 2003 annualized inventory, 

condition classes are mapped, allowing multiple 

delineations on a single sub-plot (1/24th acre). The 

assignment of condition class #1 was still based on the 

qualifying attributes at the sub-plot #1’s plot center. 

This sub-plot center is identical to the 1982 plot center 

for the 683 remeasured plots.

MFS decided to analyze land use changes between 

1982 and 2003 solely on the changes in the land use 

coding between the 1982 and 2003 inventories for 

condition class #1.

Results

The first step was to develop an initial forest type 

group transition table, based on the 683 remeasured plots. 

This table provided estimates of acres retained, lost, 

and gained over the 20-year period by specific MFTYP 

(table 2). For example, the Aspen/White Birch forest 

type group had a total estimated acreage of 2,245,685 

acres in 1982 and 2,594,240 acres in 2003, indicating an 

overall acreage gain. Over the 20-year period; 863,532 

acres remained unchanged; 1,730,708 acres were retyped 

into this group; and 1,382,153 acres converted to another 

forest type group, so that the derived annual change is 

an increase of 17,428 acres per year.

Of the eleven forest type groups, five had net gains 

(ranging from 1,220 to 53,411 acres per year) and six 

had net losses (ranging from –2,973 to –45,267 acres per 

year) (table 3). The average annual net change in table 3 

is derived using just the 683 remeasured plots, while table 

4 uses all available inventory plots at each measurement 

occasion. The estimated 1982 to 2003 rates of change 

are all in the same direction and are roughly of the same 

magnitude, except for the Oak/Hickory group, which 

flip-flopped from a 5,000 acre per year decline in table 3 

to an estimated 1,500 acre per year increase in table 4.

The next apportionment was to adjust the 1982 individual MFTYP acres, such that they collectively summed 

to the current 2003 total forestland estimate of 19,751,394 

acres (table 4). Table 4 also allows the comparison of this 

final 1982 reapportionment to three other 1982 estimates 

of MFTYP acreage.

The most meaningful check compares the “Restated 

1982 MFTYP” column to the “Reapportionment of 

1982 acres” column. Sugar Maple/Beech/Birch and 

Spruce/Fir represent 65 percent of the acres and each 

of their estimates are within 1 percent of the final 1982 

reapportionment, Nonforested is within 5 percent, and 

Aspen/White Birch is within 8 percent. All in all, a 

pretty good indication that the original 683 plots are 

representative of the corrected 1982 forest type acreage 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 155 Table 2. Cross-tabulation of forest type group and all major land use changes (source 683 FIA plots measured in 1982 and remeasured in 1999-2003). Shaded Cells represent the intersection of acreage (2000 Census and 2003 Phase 1 weighting process) that did not change over the period. The other row values represent acres transitioning out to a new 2003 MFTYP, I.e. Aspen/W. Birch lost 641,975 acres to Maple/Beech/Birch by 2003. The other column values represent acres transitioning into a new MFTYP, I.e. Aspen/W. Birch gained 142,046 acres from Elm/Ash/Cottonwood by 2003. 2003 MFTYP 1982 MFTYP Aspen/W. Birch Elm/Ash/Cottonwood Maple/Beech/Y. Birch Nonforested Oak/Gum/Cypress Oak/Hickory Aspen/W. Birch 863,532 641,975 32,889 27,889 Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 142,046 171,762 157,470 Maple/Beech/Y. Birch 376,806 73,152 3,893,692 116,942 66,388 Nonforested 231,008 13,139 296,135 1,226,891 Oak/Gum/Cypress 10,411 Oak/Hickory 53,924 27,845 28,480 14,296 94,920 Oak/Pine 117,793 Softwood Plantation Spruce/Fir 735,255 108,301 1,263,258 284,873 34,809 White/Red/Jack Pine 191,670 37,763 291,390 91,375 Timberland - Nonstocked 34,809 51,256 2003 MFTYP Totals 2,594,240 466,770 6,700,603 1,818,522 34,809 189,196 2003 MFTYP 1982 MFTYP Oak/Pine Softwood Plantation Spruce/Fir White/Red/Jack Pine Timberland - Nonstocked 1982 MFTYP Totals Aspen/W. Birch 34,541 630,564 14,296 2,245,685 Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 11,805 43,140 526,223 Maple/Beech/Y. Birch 92,423 54,084 675,093 283,805 5,632,383 Nonforested 54,735 309,543 44,757 2,176,207 Oak/Gum/Cypress 10,411 Oak/Hickory 48,237 19,456 287,158 Oak/Pine 36,224 61,716 215,733 Softwood Plantation Spruce/Fir 68,736 4,353,149 131,285 17,134 6,996,800 White/Red/Jack Pine 87,834 60,517 680,085 1,440,633 Timberland - Nonstocked 86,064 2003 MFTYP Totals 434,535 54,084 6,091,461 1,215,944 17,134 19,617,297
15

6 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

distribution. To get an idea of the fluidity of the typing 

compare the Restated 1982 MFTYP column (current 

algorithm) to the Recalculated 1982 MFTYP column 

(old algorithm) (table 4).

The last step is a combined rubber sheeting and ap-

portionment step, making the apparent type changes 

in and out of a given MFTYP to be totally additive to 

the current total of 19,751,394 acres. In doing this final 

adjustment, MFTYP acres that remained static over the 

20-year period were not re-proportioned (table 5).

Table 6 provides the estimated annual change acreage 

of gains and losses within each MFTYP. Because of the 

step-wise reapportionment process, changes in the for-

est soil’s organic carbon can now be linked to specific 

MFTYP changes. This enhanced capability results in soil 

carbon having a revised and minimal emission value, 

roughly just 10 percent of the previous estimate.

The same accounting and rebalancing process was 

conducted to look at specific trends in land use changes. 

The available land use codes for the 1982 data were lim-

ited to four broad land use classes (Forestland-Reserved, 

Forestland-Unproductive, Nonforested, and TimberlandRural). These were matched to a full transition matrix 

identifying the current land use, a listing of 15 possible 

classes. Because of the limited identification in 1982, 

and the further restriction to just the land use coded for 

condition class #1 at sub-plot #1, some invalid transitions 

were estimated (table 7). An annual net loss of over 5,000 

acres per year was estimated to occur from Reserved 

Forestland to a Timberland-Rural land use code. By FIA 

definitions, this transition is not allowed. 

To minimize the impact of this specific incorrect 

estimate, Forestland-Reserved and Forestland-Other 

were recombined into a single 1982 land use class of 

Forestland. This still estimated a transition of 369 acres 

per year to a timberland land use, which could now, at 

least be feasibly attributed to unproductive land becom-

ing productive over the 20-year period. The most frequent 

use of this table, for carbon flux estimation, is document-

ing conversions to nonforested uses and the offsetting 

reversions to forestland. The land use analysis should be 

re-processed to take into account the two noted problems. 

To do this, MFS would need to obtain the original 1982 

field data. There was a full suite of land use codes, which 

would improve the transition on sub-plot #1 by allowing 

acreage to flow to all land uses currently identified on 

this sub-plot. With these enhancements, a more specific 

and accurate transition matrix can be produced.

Table 3. A summarized version of table 2, checking to ensure additivity across the assumed average 20-year period (1982 - 2001). Column labeled “Overall Net Change Direction” 

is a simple gain/loss indicator. Derived Annual Net Change is the calculated annual change (+/-) by MFTYP or land use.

Estimated 1982 Acres Gained Overall Net Change Derived Annual Change Acres Lost Estimated 2003 Acres

MFTYP Acres 1982 - 2003 Direction (Acres/Year) for 20 Years 1982 - 2003 Net Change Summary

Aspen/W. Birch 2,245,685 1,730,708 + 17,428 1,382,153 2,594,240

Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 526,223 295,008 - (2,973) 354,461 466,770

Maple/Beech/Y. Birch 5,632,383 2,806,912 + 53,411 1,738,691 6,700,603

Nonforested 2,176,207 591,630 - (17,884) 949,316 1,818,522

Oak/Gum/Cypress 10,411 34,809 + 1,220 10,411 34,809

Oak/Hickory 287,158 94,277 - (4,898) 192,238 189,196

Oak/Pine 215,733 398,311 + 10,940 179,508 434,535Softwood Plantation - 54,084 + 2,704 - 54,084

Spruce/Fir 6,996,800 1,738,311 - (45,267) 2,643,651 6,091,461

White/Red/Jack Pine 1,440,633 535,859 - (11,234) 760,548 1,215,944

Timberland - Nonstocked 86,064 17,134 - (3,447) 86,064 17,134

Totals 19,617,297 0 19,617,297

Total Forestland 17,441,089 17,884 17,798,775

Total - Nonforested 2,176,207 (17,884) 1,818,522
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 15

7

Table 4. Reapportioned 1982 MFTYP, revised annual net change estimates, and 2003 MFTYP Acreage.

Informational Purposes ONLY Restated Reapportionment of

Recalculated 1982 MFTYP 1982 MFTYP

Original 1982 1982 MFTYP (Acres) (Acres) New Annual Net

MFTYP (Acres) [82 (Current Typing (Current Typing Change Current 2003

(Acres) Eastwide] Algorithm) Algorithm) (Acres/Year) MFTYP

MFTYP [Published] (2,483 plots) (2,483 plots) (Sums to 2003 total)2 for 20 Years3 (Acres)1

Aspen/W. Birch 1,504,900 1,603,555 2,449,254 2,261,035 4,045 2,341,937

Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 238,200 296,304 618,145 529,820 (6,132) 407,184

Noncommercial Forestland 547,200Loblolly/Shortleaf 8,300 4,277 4,277 - - -

Maple/Beech/Y. Birch 5,000,900 4,911,681 5,636,349 5,670,884 69,235 7,055,581

Nonforested 2,229,400 2,084,412 2,084,412 2,191,083 (7,862) 2,033,849

Oak/Gum/Cypress - 12,238 56,522 10,482 62 11,720

Oak/Hickory 306,500 314,953 305,410 289,121 1,546 320,044

Oak/Pine 36,200 313,157 240,676 217,207 5,859 334,384

Softwood Plantation - - - - 953 19,062

Spruce/Fir 7,770,500 8,438,274 7,130,445 7,044,628 (61,279) 5,819,039

White/Red/Jack Pine 2,194,700 1,952,720 1,304,663 1,450,481 (4,559) 1,359,302

Timberland - Nonstocked - 17,461 118,879 86,652 (1,868) 49,293

Grand Total 19,836,800 19,949,032 19,949,032 19,751,394 0 19,751,394

Total Forestland 17,607,400 17,864,620 17,864,620 17,560,311 7,862 17,717,545

Total - Nonforested 2,229,400 2,084,412 2,084,412 2,191,083 (7,862) 2,033,849

1 Actual 2003 Acres Column is the current 5-panel estimate by MFTYP, using the current typing algorithm2 Adjusted 1982 Acres is a proportional construct to obtain additivity across the 20-year period, I.e. {(Table 3. 1982 Estimated 1982 acres/Table 3. 1982 Total acres) X (19,751,394) 3 New Annual Net Change by MFTYP or land use uses just values in Table 4.
15

8 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. Table 5. Rubber Sheeting and Proportionation of the Adjusted 1982 acres and aggregate change into respective Forest Type Groups. Assumed that Forest Type Group acres that remained static did not need any reapportionment. Adjusted remaining column cell values using their table 2 share of Forest type Group Acreage to the current 2003 Forest Type Acreage in table 4. For example, table 1 had Aspen/W. Birch gaining 142,046 acres from Elm/Ash/Cottonwood over the 20-year period. This has been re-proportioned to be only a 121,338 acre gain. MFTYP Aspen/W. Birch Elm/Ash/Cottonwood Maple/Beech/Y. Birch Nonforested Oak/Gum/Cypress Oak/Hickory Aspen/W. Birch 863,532 - 723,162 44,859 - 66,595 Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 121,338 171,762 177,385 - - - Maple/Beech/Y. Birch 321,875 58,377 3,893,692 159,503 - 158,529 Nonforested 197,331 10,485 333,586 1,226,891 - - Oak/Gum/Cypress - - 11,728 - - - Oak/Hickory 46,063 22,221 32,082 19,500 - 94,920 Oak/Pine - - 132,690 - - - Softwood Plantation Spruce/Fir 628,069 86,426 1,423,017 388,554 11,720 - White/Red/Jack Pine 163,728 30,135 328,241 124,631 - - Timberland - Nonstocked - 27,778 - 69,910 - - 2003 Total 2,341,937 407,184 7,055,581 2,033,849 11,720 320,044 New Proportioned MFTYP Oak/Pine Softwood Plantation Spruce/Fir White/Red/Jack Pine Timberland - Nonstocked 1982 Total Aspen/W. Birch 25,856 531,744 18,121 - 2,273,869 Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 8,837 36,379 - - 515,701 Maple/Beech/Y. Birch 69,184 19,062 569,294 359,731 - 5,609,246 Nonforested 40,972 261,032 56,731 - 2,127,029 Oak/Gum/Cypress - - - - 11,728 Oak/Hickory 36,108 16,407 - - 267,300 Oak/Pine 36,224 - 78,226 - 247,140 Softwood Plantation Spruce/Fir 51,453 4,353,149 166,408 49,293 7,158,090 White/Red/Jack Pine 65,749 51,033 680,085 - 1,443,602 Timberland - Nonstocked - - - - 97,688 2003 Total 334,384 19,062 5,819,039 1,359,302 49,293 19,751,394 Total Forestland 17,624,365 Total - Nonforested 2,127,029
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 159 Table 6. MFTYP Annual Net Change. Suggested Use is calculating the Forest Soil’s Organic Carbon flux by Forest Type Group. Need to read JUST down the column, looking at JUST the unshaded values, to avoid duplication. For example, on an annual basis, Aspen/W. Birch has gained 6,067 acre per year from Elm/Ash/Cottonwood and concurrently lost (20,064) acres to Maple/Beech/Birch. Annual Net Change (Acres/Year) estimated for the period of 1982 - 2003 MFTYP Aspen/W. Birch Elm/Ash/Cottonwood Maple/Beech/Y. Birch Nonforested Oak/Gum/Cypress Oak/Hickory Aspen/W. Birch (6,067) 20,064 (7,624) - 1,027 Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 6,067 5,950 (524) - (1,111) Maple/Beech/Y. Birch (20,064) (5,950) (8,704) (586) 6,322 Nonforested 7,624 524 8,704 - (975) Oak/Gum/Cypress - - 586 - - Oak/Hickory (1,027) 1,111 (6,322) 975 - Oak/Pine (1,293) (442) 3,175 (2,049) - (1,805) Softwood Plantation - - (953) - - - Spruce/Fir 4,816 2,502 42,686 6,376 586 (820) White/Red/Jack Pine 7,280 1,507 (1,575) 3,395 - - Timberland - Nonstocked - 1,389 - 3,496 - - Grand Total 3,403 (5,426) 72,317 (4,659) (0) 2,637 Aggregate MFTYP MFTYP Oak/Pine Softwood Plantation Spruce/Fir White/Red/Jack Pine Timberland - Nonstocked Net Change Aspen/W. Birch 1,293 - (4,816) (7,280) - 3,403 Elm/Ash/Cottonwood 442 - (2,502) (1,507) (1,389) (5,426) Maple/Beech/Y. Birch (3,175) 953 (42,686) 1,575 - 72,317 Nonforested 2,049 - (6,376) (3,395) (3,496) (4,659) Oak/Gum/Cypress - - (586) - - (0) Oak/Hickory 1,805 - 820 - - 2,637 Oak/Pine - (2,573) 624 - 4,362 Softwood Plantation - - - - 953 Spruce/Fir 2,573 - 5,769 2,465 (66,953) White/Red/Jack Pine (624) - (5,769) - (4,215) Timberland - Nonstocked - - (2,465) - (2,420) Grand Total 4,362 953 (66,953) (4,215) (2,420) -
160 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Discussion

The fine tuning and improved accounting of Maine’s 

LUCF GHG flux was achieved by identifying the 

problem areas, finding references to improved estimations, trying approximations, and then having the 

wherewithal to reprocess and analyze the results. An 

asset to this process was Maine’s continued high percentage of forestland, which minimizes some of the 

potential permutations that other regions are experiencing, particularly in land use changes. While the above 

described carbon estimation process will continue to 

be enhanced, the focus can now comfortably shift to 

finding and recommending forest management practices 

that realistically improve the current state of carbon 

fluxes and effect a reduction in GHG amounts both for 

the immediate short-term, (next 10 years) and for the 

long-term (20 plus years).

References

Chase, A. J.; H. R. Young. 1978. Pulping, biomass and nutrient 

studies of woody shrubs and shrub sizes of tree species. Life 

Sciences and Agriculture Experiment Station, University 

of Maine, Orono, Maine. Bulletin 749. 36 p.

Griffith, Douglas M.; Alerich, Carol L. 1996. Forest Statistics 

for Maine, 1995. Resource bulletin NE-135. Radnor, PA: U. 

S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern 

Forest Experiment Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis 

Unit. 134 p.

Table 7. Final transition matrix annual land use changes (acres per year). For the period of 1982 – 2003.

Apportioned Overall Derived Annual Current 5

1982 Acres Net Change Net Change Panel Estimate

(Acres/Year)

1982 Land Use Class (Sums to 2003 Total) Direction for 20 Years 2003 acres

Forestland - Reserved, Unproductive, Other 522,374 - (369) 515,001

Nonforested 2,191,083 - (7,862) 2,033,849

Timberland - Rural, Other, Urban 17,037,937 + 8,230 17,202,544

Grand Total 19,751,394 19,751,394

Total Forestland 17,560,311 7,862 17,717,545

Nonforested - Total 2,191,083 (7,862) 2,033,84

Heath, L. S.; Chojnacky, David C. 2001. Down dead 

wood statistics for Maine timberlands, 1995. Research 

bulletin NE-150. Newtown Square, PA: U. S. Department 

of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern Research 

Station. 80 p.

Honer, T. G.; Ker, M. F.; Alemdag, I. S. 1983. Metric Timber 

Tables for the commercial tree species of central and eastern 

Canada. Environmental Canada, Canadian Forest Service, 

Maritimes Forest Research Centre, Fredericton, New 

Brunswick. Information Report M-X-140. 140 p.

Laustsen, Kenneth M.; Griffith, Douglas M.; Steinman, James 

R. 2003. Fourth Annual Inventory Report on Maine’s 

Forests. Augusta, ME: Department of Conservation, Maine 

Forest Service, Forest Health and Monitoring Division. 49 

p. w/Appendices.

Northeast Field Guide, field manual version 1.4. 2000. U. S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northeastern 

Research Station, Forest Inventory and Analysis Unit.

Powell, Douglas S.; Dickson, David R. 1984. Forest Statistics 

for Maine 1971 and 1982. Resource bulletin NE-81. 

Broomall, PA: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Northeastern Forest Experiment Station, Forest 

Inventory and Analysis Unit. 194 p.

Wharton, Eric H.; Griffith, Douglas M. 1998. Estimating total 

forest biomass in Maine, 1995. Resource Bulletin NE-142. 

Radnor, PA: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Northeastern Research Station. 50 p.

Young, H. E.; Ribe, J.; Wainwright, K. 1980. Weight tables 

for tree and shrub species in Maine. Life Sciences and 

Agriculture Experiment Station, University of Maine, 

Orono, Maine. Miscellaneous Report 230. 84 p.

Young, H. E.; Carpenter, P. M. 1967. Weight, nutrient elements 

and productivity studies of seedlings and saplings of eight 

tree species in natural ecosystems. Maine Agriculture 

Experiment Station, University of Maine, Orono, Maine. 

Technical Bulletin 28. 39 p.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 161

Introduction

An economic analysis of Tamarisk (saltcedar) is being 

conducted to evaluate this invasive shrub in some areas 

of the Pecos, Rio Grande, and Colorado Rivers in the 

southwestern United States. Russian olive and Siberian 

elm infestations will be incorporated into the analysis 

to the extent feasible. The analysis consists of two case 

studies that address the extent of the existing infestations 

in the analysis areas; risk of spread to susceptible areas 

that are currently not infested; potential damage to various resources; and the costs and benefits associated with 

controlling tamarisk and restoring native vegetation. The 

case studies will provide a sample decision making format that can be used to evaluate future project proposals, 

set priorities for allocating Federal funds, and provide 

policy makers with accurate and credible information to 

help determine the most effective and efficient courses 

of action for dealing with tamarisk infestations.

The economic costs and benefits associated with each 

alternative scenario will be estimated, and a sensitivity 

analysis will be conducted to determine which variables 

have the most impact on the results of the economic 

analysis.

Methodology

Determining Current Conditions and 

Rate of Spread

The extent of the current infestations in the study areas 

is being determined and depicted on a map. Historical 

information is used to determine the average annual rate 

of spread during the past few decades. Projections of 

future acres affected over a 30 year period will be made 

based on historical growth rates.

Over the past decade, a number of independent mapping efforts have attempted to capture the distribution and 

abundance of tamarisk infestations in several areas of the 

western United States. However, many of these projects 

are spatially and temporally discrete, making it difficult 

to determine a broad, comprehensive picture of tamarisk 

spread over time. Some of the underlying difficulties stem 

from issues regarding mapping methodology, scaling, 

considerations of mixed stands, overstory/understory 

relationships, accessibility problems, and inclusion/exclusion of different functional mapping parameters (for 

example, upper watersheds). Merging these various mapping efforts should increase our ability to assess and track 

tamarisk infestations. Further, a subsequent comparative 

Analyzing the Economics of Tamarisk in the Pecos, Rio 

Grande, and Colorado River Watersheds

Lewis, Joseph W., Economist Forest Health Protection, Arlington, VA

Basala, Allen; Zavaleta; Erika; Parker; Douglas L.; Taylor, John; Horner, Mark; 

Dionigi, Christopher; Carlson, Timothy, Spiller, Samuel; and Nibling, Frederick

Abstract—The potential economic effects of tamarisk (saltcedar), and the costs and 

benefits associated with controlling tamarisk infestations are being evaluated on the 

Pecos, Rio Grande, and Colorado River watersheds. Resource impacts analyzed include 

water, wildlife habitat, and fire risk. The extent of existing infestations will be quantified 

and projected over the next 30 years under the following four scenarios:

1. No action (status quo)

2. Containment

3. Maximum control in 20 years

4. Maximum control in 30 years

The economic costs and benefits associated with each alternative scenario will be estimated, and a sensitivity analysis will be conducted to determine which variables have 

the most impact on the results of the economic analysis.
162 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

effort should then foster a reasonable estimation of the 

rate of spread over time and space. However, issues 

regarding data quality and resolution, and therefore accuracy and precision, remain unclear.

Categorizing Levels of Infestation

Areas within the watersheds are placed into four broad 

categories: 1) not currently infested (in other words, no 

tamarisk, no Russian olive, and no Siberian elm), 2) 

lightly infested, 3) moderately infested, and 4) heavily 

infested. There are uncertainties regarding how much of 

an invasive species is in a given area in the base year, let 

alone future years. The four categories are perhaps better 

viewed as ranges. For example, 0 percent to 10 percent 

could be called uninfested (not currently infested in the 

case of the base year), 10 percent to 40 percent could 

be lightly infested; 40 percent to 80 percent moderately 

infested; and 80 percent to 100 percent heavily infested. 

Guidance on the appropriate percentages will be sought 

from ecologists and weed science experts.

Developing Alternatives

Four alternatives will be evaluated for the Pecos, Rio 

Grande, and Colorado River watersheds. These are not 

the only possible alternatives, but they represent a plausible range of actions, including variations in intensity 

and timing of control efforts:

Alternative 1

Maintain Status Quo—This serves as the “no action” 

alternative. Under this alternative, existing and planned 

private, local, tribal, state, and federal programs continue 

into the future, but no additional effort is made to control 

the spread of tamarisk or rehabilitate currently infested 

areas. The period examined is 30 years (2004 to 2034).

Alternative 2

Containment—The containment alternative is analogous to a strategy used to fight wildfires or control a 

disease epidemic. For example, by controlling the outer 

edges, the fire, the disease, or the invasive species infestation is contained, and prevented from spreading. Using 

2004 as a base year, the containment alternative applies 

additional measures to ensure that areas that are not infested in 2004 remain that way throughout the 2004-2034 

analysis period. The additional measures include a variety 

of tactics, including chemical, mechanical, and possibly 

biological control techniques, as well as maintenance, 

assessment, revegetation, and monitoring efforts.

A strict definition of containment would have areas 

with no invasive species remain that way throughout the 

2004-2034 period. However, under Alternative 2, some 

ramp-up period or lag structure in applying the measures 

and getting the results is assumed.

Alternative 3

Maximum Control in 30 Years—As in Alternative 2, 

Alternative 3 requires that the areas within the watersheds with no invasive species in 2004 remain that way 

throughout the 2004-2034 period. In addition, under 

Alternative 3, further actions will be taken to provide a 

continuous rate of progress toward reducing the intensity 

of infestations and restoring native vegetation to the 

maximum feasible extent by 2034. This continuous rate 

of progress is measured in part by determining the number of acres shifting from the high infestation category to 

moderate, to low, and to the uninfested category.

Alternative 4

Maximum Control in 20 Years—Alternative 4 represents the most aggressive approach to controlling 

tamarisk. This alternative is similar to alternative three, 

except that the maximum feasible level of control is 

achieved by 2024 and maintained through 2034.

Categorizing Vegetation Types

The impacts of tamarisk infestations differ by location. 

In riparian zones, tamarisk replaces native cottonwood 

and willow trees. In the semi-arid upland terrace area 

adjacent to the riparian zone, tamarisk replaces native 

grasses, sedges, and woody shrubs.

The amount of water consumed by tamarisk compared 

to the amount consumed by native vegetation will differ greatly in the two areas. Thus, currently-infested, as 

well as projected acres will be divided into these two 

categories for this analysis.

A third category representing areas of sensitive or 

special status will also be identified to represent areas 

of special concern for a number of reasons. These areas 

are tracts along rivers having unique or important attributes that would require or compel local managers or 

private landowners to protect, maintain, or improve their 

condition. Examples include: (1) habitat for threatened, 

endangered, and sensitive species; (2) dense stands of 

tamarisk and riparian sites with heavy fuel accumulations 

that increase the risk of wildfire; (3) historical cottonwood gallery forests; (4) areas of religious and cultural 

significance; and (5) areas where perennial water could 

be restored. Due to their importance, such sites often 

receive priority for management with limited funds. A 

very small percentage of the total acres analyzed will 

fall into this category.

These categories will be further divided into three “difficulty of access” classifications that will help determine 

type and cost of potential control techniques.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 163

The selection of the most efficient tamarisk control 

technique is highly influenced by the difficulty of access to each site. For areas that are relatively level with 

adjacent roads, heavy equipment can be used; whereas, 

in canyons, access is limited to foot, horseback, or river 

travel. The control costs per acre are significantly different for these two situations. Thus, a good understanding 

of the accessibility throughout the Colorado, Pecos, and 

Rio Grande watersheds is essential to accurately estimate 

tamarisk control costs. The three “difficulty of access” 

classifications are:

Highly difficult to access—This classification is associated with those areas that can only be accessed by foot, 

horse, or boat. Examples include steep embankments, 

canyons, and roadless areas.

Moderately difficult to access—This classification 

covers those areas that have a mix of level terrain 

where heavy equipment could be used, and steep 

embankments that would require hand labor to control 

tamarisk. Typical of this classification are river channels where the side slopes adjacent to the river are too 

steep for equipment use, but have broad flood plains 

that have good access potential.

Low difficulty of access—An area that is easily accessible is defined as one that is relatively level, near 

an existing road, and where heavy equipment can be 

used throughout.

Identifying Resource Impacts

The following three resource impacts will be assessed 

for each alternative:

Water

Fire

Wildlife Habitat (including endangered species)

•

•

•

1.

2.

3.

These resource impacts will be quantified in physical 

and monetary terms to the extent possible, given the 

availability of data and the ability of scientists to provide 

expert judgments.

Identifying Costs

All costs associated with control and restoration of 

infested areas will be compiled for each alternative. Cost 

components include direct control costs, as well as costs 

related to research, maintenance, assessment, revegetation, and monitoring. Also, costs associated with biomass 

utilization will be estimated to the extent feasible.

Identifying Benefits

Benefits of containing or controlling tamarisk infestations are based on changes in resource impacts 

related to water, fire, and wildlife habitat (including 

endangered species). For example, the benefits of 

Alternative 2 (Containment) would be the increased 

water yield, reduced fire risk, and reduced impact on 

wildlife habitat that result from moving from conditions 

under Alternative 1 to conditions under Alternative 2. 

Likewise, the benefits of Alternative 3 result from moving from conditions under Alternative 2 to Alternative 

3. Also, benefits associated with biomass utilization will 

be estimated when appropriate.

Results

We expect to have preliminary results of the analysis 

completed by April, 2005.
164 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

In Japan, many natural broad-leaved forests were 

converted into conifer plantations of Japanese cedar 

(Cryptomeryia japonica) or hinoki cypress (Chamaecypris 

obtusa) throughout the country in order to fulfill urgent 

needs for timber as construction materials after World 

War II. Many of the remaining broad-leaved forests have 

been managed as small scale woodlots to obtain logs for 

mushroom culture, for example. These practices have 

contributed to the formation of a landscape, typical of 

many Japanese villages, which is characterized by a mosaic of small, secondary broad-leaved stands of different 

ages scattered among conifer plantations.

In order to better understand the present status of 

biodiversity in this man-made landscape, we have 

been conducting a biodiversity monitoring program 

in broad-leaved and conifer stands in cool temperate 

Japan. In both, the monitoring was carried out in a 

chronosequential series of stands, in order to see how 

biodiversity changes over time in secondary broadleaved forests and in conifer plantations. Results of the 

monitoring program will contribute to the development 

of a management policy for the village landscape that 

considers the maintenance of biodiversity as an objective. 

In this report, we describe the monitoring design and 

outline the tentative results for insects and soil arthropods 

in the broad-leaved forests.

Monitoring Methods

Study Sites

The monitoring sites were located in the Ogawa Forest 

Reserve (OFR) (36o56’ N, 140o35’ E) and its vicinity, 

situated near the northern border of Ibaraki Prefecture, 

Japan. Although OFR is an old growth natural forest, 

the surrounding area is predominantly occupied by 

Monitoring Insects to Maintain Biodiversity in Ogawa 

Forest Reserve

S. Makino, T. Inoue, K. Hamaguchi, K. Okabe, M., and I. Okochi, entomologists, and 

H. Tanaka, botanist, Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Matsunosato 1, 

Tsukuba, 305-8687, Japan

H. Goto, entomologist, Kyushu Research Center, Forestry and Forest Products Research 

Institute, Kumamoto, 860-0862, Japan

M. Hasegawa, soil zoologist, Kiso experimental station, Forestry and Forest Products 

Research Institute, Nagano 397-0001, Japan

M. Sueyoshi, entomologist, Department of Systematic Biology, Entomology Section, 

National Museum of Natural History, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC, USA

Abstract—The results of a biodiversity monitoring program conducted in the Ogawa 

Forest Reserve and its vicinity, situated in a temperate region of Japan, identified three 

different patterns for species richness. Forests of the region are characterized by a 

mosaic of secondary deciduous stands of various ages scattered among plantations of 

conifers. The three different types of change in species richness observed in response 

to the stand age are as follows:

1. Type I (butterflies, tube-renting bees and wasps, hoverflies, fruit flies, and longicorn 

beetles), the species diversity was highest in open areas, just after clear cutting, decreasing with the stand age;

2. Type II (mites associated with mushrooms), older stands showed greater diversity 

than younger stands; and,

3. Type III (moths, oribatid mites, collembolas, carabid beetles, and ants), the number of 

species did not change greatly with the stand age, though ordination analysis revealed 

that there was variation in species compositions. These results indicate that combinations of stands of different ages, or heterogeneously arranged stands, can contribute to 

the maintenance of insect biodiversity at the landscape level.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 165

plantations of Japanese cedar and hinoki cypress with 

scattered secondary deciduous forests of various ages. 

From the total study area (about 3200 ha about 600 to 

800 m a.s.l.) including OFR, we selected nine monitoring 

plots (4 to 98 ha), ranging from grasslands just after clearcutting to old growth forests over 170 years old. Konara 

oak (Quercus serrata), Mongolian Oak (Q. Crispula), 

Japanese Beech (Fagus japonica), Sweet chestnut tree 

(Castanea crenata), are some of the predominant tree 

species (Inoue 2003). In addition to the plots, a few 

grasslands near OFR were also monitored for butterflies. 

Monitoring was primarily carried out in 2002 with the 

exception of the butterfly transects which were done in 

1997 to 2001 (Inoue 2003).

Plants in the OFR have been studied intensively by a 

host of ecologists (Nakashizuka and Matsumoto 2002) 

and inventory studies have been conducted in OFR and 

its vicinity for some insect taxa (Maetô and Makihara 

1999, Totok and others 2002, Sueyoshi and others 2003, 

Inoue 2003).

Biodiversity Monitoring

Plants

Because all animals depend on plants directly or indirectly, information on the vegetation is indispensable 

as a background to any analysis of insect diversity. Trees 

and vines taller than 2m and larger than 5 cm d.b.h. were 

tagged in forty 5m x 5m quadrats. Forest floor vegetation 

(vegetation height smaller than 2 m) was inventoried 

following the Braun-Branquet method for 40 subquadrats (1 x 1 m) along a 100 m line in each plot. Standing 

dead stems larger than 5cm d.b.h. were also tagged and 

measured.

Insects and other arthropods

Target organisms were selected from a variety of taxa 

representing different ecological roles. The particular 

insect traps mentioned below were placed well inside 

the study plots to avoid possible edge effects.

Butterflies

Butterflies are typical herbivores: during the larval 

stage they almost exclusively feed on plants, while adults 

generally depend on nectar or other carbohydrates. Line 

transects were conducted to monitor butterflies. One-hour 

transect counts were made twice a month from April to 

October between 9:00 and 15:00 (Inoue 2003). Species 

and the number of butterflies sighted (or collected in a 

small number of cases where species were not identified 

at sight) were recorded at each census.

Nocturnal moths

Larvae of moths are also herbivores, though they use 

woody trees more frequently than butterflies. We used 

portable light traps (Okochi 2002) to collect nocturnal 

moths. Once or twice in June or July, a single trap was 

left overnight at each of the monitoring sites, and moths 

trapped inside were collected the following morning.

Carabid beetles on the forest floor

Carabids are usually predators of small animals. 

They have been widely studied as promising indicators 

of forest conditions using pitfall traps (Niemelä 2001). 

The pitfall trap we used was a transparent plastic bottle 

(77 mm diameter, 158 mm height) with three small holes 

(about 5 mm in diameter) in the middle for drainage of 

rainwater. A 20 x 20 cm white plastic plate was fixed 

above the opening with stainless wire in order to prevent 

various materials falling into the trap. In each plot, ten 

pitfall traps were aligned in three parallel lines (three, 

four, and three traps per line, respectively) with a distance 

of 10 m between each trap and between adjacent lines. 

Trapped insects were collected every two weeks from 

April to November.

Tube-renting bees and wasps

Solitary bees and wasps respectively play roles as pollinators and predators of various insects or spiders. Some 

groups preferentially or obligatory nest in pre-existing 

holes. It is thus possible to monitor their abundance and 

diversity using nesting traps with various tube sizes (Fye 

1965, Tscharntke and others 1998). The nesting trap we 

used was made of 16 bamboo stalks (approximately 8 to 

16 mm in diameter) and four reeds (6 mm), which were 

tied together side by side with strings. Nine traps were 

tied to tree trunks or wooden posts (where no substrate 

trees are available) at 1.5 m above the ground in April, 

and removed in November. Any immature wasps or bees 

were reared until eclosion for identification.

Longicorn beetles

Longicorn beetles (Cerambycidae) are usually xylophagous at the larval stage. Many feed on recently 

felled or killed trees, contributing to the decomposition 

of dead woody materials. Adult longicorn beetles, particularly of the subfamily Leputurinae, frequently visit 

flowers to feed on pollen and nectar. Longicorn beetles 

were collected with standard Malaise traps (Golden Owl 

Publishers, 180 cm long, 120 cm wide, 200 cm high); 

five traps were set in April at each plot at intervals of 10 

m. Collection of trapped insects was made every two 

weeks as in pitfall traps.
166 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Hoverflies and fruit flies

Adult hoverflies (Syrphidae) visit flowers to feed on 

nectar, and probably on pollen. Feeding habits of larval 

hoverflies are divided into aphidophagous, phytophagous, 

xylophagous, and fungivorous. Fruit flies (Tephritidae) 

are phytophagous, feeding on various parts of plant tissues at the larval stage. These flies were also collected 

with Malaise traps (Sueyoshi and others 2003).

Ants on forest floor

Ants were collected between July and August with 

litter sampling and pitfall traps along a 100 m (or 200 

m in a few sites) transect line in each plot. Litter was 

sampled at intervals of 20 m, and ants were hand-sorted. 

Pitfall traps (disposable plastic cups) were set along the 

same line at 10 m intervals for a maximum duration of 

three days.

Oribatid mites and Collembola in forest floor 

litter

Both of these arthropods play important roles as 

decomposers. A cylindrical core (25 cm2 x 5 cm high) 

of soil was removed from eight divisions (4 x 2 m) of a 

quadrat (8 x 8 m) in April, August, and November. Soil 

arthropods were later extracted with Tullgren funnels 

(Hasegawa and others 2004).

Mites associated with mushrooms

Mushroom fruiting bodies were collected in each plot 

once a month from April to November. Mites were handsorted and identified under a microscope.

Results and Discussion

Species richness of the various indicator organisms 

groups, in response to stand age after clear cutting, is 

schematically depicted in figure 1. Trofymow and others (2003) did a similar analysis for arthropod species 

richness in Douglas-fir forests in Canada as a test of 

the conceptual ideas presented by Spies and Franklin 

(1988).

Forest floor vegetation in young stands, was composed of a large number of species. While there was a 

slight decrease in middle-aged stands, the number of 

species increased thereafter. Plants in the tree layer with 

d.b.h. larger than 5 cm showed increased diversity after 

clear-cutting, saturating at 50 to 60-years. Responses of 

arthropods to stand age were classified into the following three types.

Type I: Species richness (the number of species) is 

high in grasslands or in early stages of succession, 

while much lower in older forests. This pattern of 

change was observed with butterflies, hoverflies, fruit 

flies, tube-renting bees and wasps, and cerambycid 

beetles.

Type II: Species richness is low in early stages of succession, but becomes greater as forests mature. This 

pattern of change was observed with mites associated 

with mushrooms.

Type III: Species richness does not significantly change 

with forest age. This pattern was observed with moths, 

oribatid mites, collembolas, and carabid beetles, 

and ants. Although the species richness of oribatid 

mites and collembolas was a little lower in a plot one 

year after clear-cutting, it soon recovered thereafter 

(Hasegawa and others 2004). Moths also showed a 

relatively small change across the chronosequence 

of stands. Their change pattern was moderately bellshaped, attaining the peak at 50 to 60 years following 

clear-cutting.

Taxa showing the Type I change pattern response are 

herbivores during the larval stage, and/or largely depend 

on flowers for carbohydrates as adults. Many butterfly 

species live in grasslands and utilize herbaceous plants 

as hosts. Even species whose host are tree species visit 

herbaceous plants for nectar (Inoue 2003). Tube renting 

bees and wasps probably collect nectar and pollen, or 

Figure 1. Schematic representations of species richness 

response to the age of deciduous broad-leaved stands after 

clear-cutting. Numbers near the response curves represent 

the following arthropod taxa: 1, butterflies; 2, tube-renting 

bees and wasps, and longicorn beetles; 3, hoverflies and 

fruit flies; 4, mites associated with mushrooms; 5, oribatid 

mites and collembola; 6, moths; 7, carabid beetles and ants; 

8, forest floor plants; 9, tree layer plants (d.b.h. >5cm).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 167

hunt prey (for example, lepidopterous larvae, spiders, 

and grasshoppers) respectively, in grasslands or in very 

young and open stands. Although most longicorn beetles 

feed on dead trees during the larval period, adult insects 

frequently visit flowers. These ecological observations 

indicate that, for Type I species, abundance of flowers 

is one of the important factors contributing to the high 

species richness in plots of early stages of succession. 

This hypothesis can be tested by monitoring density and 

abundance of flowering plants in the study sites throughout the seasons.

For mites associated with mushrooms, the species 

richness response clearly reflects the number of mushroom species, which in turn increased with the forest age. 

This response seems to be partly due to the frequency of 

fallen trees, important substrates for mushrooms, which 

was much greater in older stands.

The arthropod taxa showing the Type III change pattern (moths, oribatid mites, collembola, carabid beetles, 

and ants) did not show change in species richness in 

response to forest age. It is noteworthy that moths and 

butterflies, both lepidopterans feeding mainly on plant 

leaves, showed different responses to forest age, in 

spite of the systematic and ecological affinity of the two 

groups. This may be partly due that a greater percentage 

of butterfly hosts are herbaceous plants as compared with 

moth hosts, according to host records from Miyata (1983) 

for moths, and Matsuka (1994) for butterflies. In additional, adult moths do not depend on flowers for food as 

butterflies do. Although the underlying mechanisms are 

unknown, these feeding behaviors may partly explain the 

observed differences between moths and butterflies.

The Type III pattern with little observed change in 

species diversity with forest age, does not mean that 

different aged stands were inhabited by the same assemblage of arthropods. For example, with the exception of 

the first year following clear-cutting plot, the number of 

species of oribatid mites did not differ greatly between 

plots in different age stands. A multivariate ordination 

analysis, however, showed that a four-year-old plot had 

an oribatid community distinct from those in other, older 

plots (Hasegawa and others 2004).

The different responses in terms of species richness 

shown by different taxa indicate that combinations of 

stands of different ages, or heterogeneously arranged 

stands, contribute to the maintenance of insect diversity 

at the landscape level. Future studies, will monitor other 

animals, in addition to other insect taxa, to test hypotheses formulated using the results of this study. More 

detailed analyses of communities or species assemblage 

of both plants and animals will be undertaken in order to 

understand how diversity changes over time following 

clear-cutting.

In this short paper, we have only reported on species 

richness as a measure of biodiversity. Future studies will 

also analyze information additional ecological variables 

beyond species inventories including abundance of 

coarse woody debris (snags, fallen trees or twigs) as 

a biotic factor, and light intensity or soil properties as 

abiotic factors.

References

Fye, R.E. 1965. The biology of the Vespidae, Pompilidae, and 

Sphecidae (Hymenoptera) from Trap Nests in Northwestern 

Ontario. Canadian Entomologist. 97: 716-744.

Hasegawa, M.; Fukuyama, K.; Makino, S.; Okochi, I.; Goto, 

H.; Mizoguchi, T.; Sakata, T.; Tanaka, H. 2004. Collmbolan 

and oribatid mites community dynamics with the secondary succession of deciduous forests in Japan. Abstracts of 

International Congress of Entomology, 2004 (in press).

Inoue, T. 2003. Chronosequential change in a butterfly community after clear-cutting of deciduous forests in a cool 

temperate region of central Japan. Entomological Science. 

6: 151-163.

Maetô, K. and Makihara, H. (1999) Changes in insect assemblages with secondary succession of temperate deciduous 

forests after clear-cutting. Japanese Journal of Entomology 

(N.S.). 2, 11-26 (in Japanese).

Matsuka, H. 1994. Butterflies. A Color Handbook. 215pp. PHP 

Press, Tokyo.Miyata, A. 1983. A Handbook of the Natural 

History of Moths of Japan. 1451pp. Syowado Press (in 

Japanese).

Nakashizuka, T. and Matsumoto, Y. (2002) Diversity and 

Interaction in a Temperate Forest Community. 319pp., 

Springer Verlag, Tokyo.Niemelä, J. 2001. Carabid beetles 

(Coleoptera: Carabidae) and habitat fragmentation: a 

review. European Journal of Entomology. 98: 127-132.

Okochi, I. (2002) A new portable light trap for moth collection. 

Bulletin of Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, 

1(4): 231-234.

Spies, T. A.; Franklin, J. F. 1988. Old-growth and forest 

dynamics in the Douglas-fir region of western Oregon and 

Washington. Nat. Sci. 72: 51-53.

Sueyoshi, M.; Maetô, K.; Makihara, H.; Makino, S.; Iwai, T. 

2003. Changes in dipteran assemblages with secondary 

succession of temperate deciduous forests following clearcutting. Bulletin of Forestry and Forest Products Research 

Institute, 2 (3): 171-192 (in Japanese).

Totok M. U.; Makino, S.; Goto, H. 2002. Species compositions and seasonal changes in the number of social wasps 

collected with Malaise traps in natural deciduous forests 

in and near the Ogawa Research Forest, northern Kanto, 

Japan (Hymenoptera, Vespidae). Bulletin of Forestry and 

Forest Products Research Institute, 1: 135-139.

Trofymow, J. A.; Addison, B. A.; Blackwell, F. He.; Preston, C. 

A.; Marshall, V. G. 2003. Attributes and indicators of oldgrowth and successional Douglas-fir forests on Vancouver 

Island. Environ. Rev. 11: S1-S18.

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Bioindication using trap-nesting bees and wasps and their 

natural enemies: community structure and interactions. 

Journal of Applied Ecology. 35: 708-719.
168 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Sustainability and use of rangelands are inherently 

linked to the sustainability and health of complementing and supporting social and economic infrastructures. 

Social and economic infrastructures provide the context in which rangeland use occurs and continues. In 

Sustainable Rangeland Roundtable (SRR) discussions, 

emphasis has been generally given to ways in which 

the natural resource base benefits the economy and 

society. SRR gives equal consideration to the reciprocal 

relationship between the potential positive and negative 

impacts of the economy and society on the sustainability 

of rangelands.

The fundamental realization that rangeland sustainability must be examined within the social and economic 

framework exposes a dilemma. It is difficult to define 

measures that unambiguously relate rangeland conditions 

to social and economic structure or activity. One part of 

that dilemma is that social and economic structures are 

more encompassing than rangeland ecosystems. In the 

United States, rangelands and their use play a major role 

in the social and economic framework of some regions, 

while they have virtually no role in other areas. Because 

of the different levels of involvement of rangeland (or 

any particular resource use) in the social and economic 

framework of a given place, the SRR Socio-Economic 

Criterion Group decided to consider indicators of the 

health and sustainability of communities, of which 

rangelands and rangeland use are one of multiple components.

Directly measuring economic and social indicators 

at the national and regional levels of analyses presents 

some conceptual and methodological challenges when 

the objective is to provide unambiguous empirical associations with other indicators of rangeland biophysical 

trends. These challenges include: (1) establishing and 

documenting the relationship of economic and social 

factors to rangeland sustainability; (2) dealing with 

issues associated with the unit of analysis (scale); (3) 

determining causal relationships among socioeconomic 

and ecological indicators; and (4) overcoming the unavailability of indicator data.

Each of the indicators indirectly reflect different 

conceptual ways to examine socioeconomic data. These 

indicators include economic and social structures that 

Social and Economic Indicators of the Sustainable 

Rangelands Roundtable

John E. Mitchell, Rangeland Scientist, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO

Daniel W. McCallum, Research Economist, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, 

CO

Lewis E. Swanson, Head, Dept. of Sociology, Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO

John Tanaka, Professor, Oregon State University, Union, OR

Mark Brunson, Assoc. Professor, Dept. of Environment and Society, Utah State University, 

Logan, UT 

Aaron Harp, Director, Caldwell Research and Extension Center, University of Idaho, 

Caldwell, ID

L. Allen Torell, Professor, Dept. Agricultural Economics, New Mexico State University, 

Las Cruces, NM 

H. Theodore Heintz. Asst. Dir. for Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept. of Interior, Washington, 

DC

Abstract—Social and economic systems provide a context and rationale for rangeland 

management. Sustaining rangeland ecosystems requires attention to the social and 

economic conditions that accompany the functioning of those systems. We present and 

discuss economic and social indicators for rangeland sustainability that have possible 

relevance in the United States. A brief conceptual basis for each indicator is offered 

describing its potential relationship to rangelands. The importance of these indicators 

to other countries having different social and economic conditions is less assured.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 169

are generally associated with individual and community 

well-being. For example, measures of demographic 

structure, including age, gender, ethnicity, and social 

stratification, provide indirect indicators of population 

stability, as well as rates of change that can be assumed to 

indirectly measure individual and community well-being. 

The challenge is to establish the degree of association 

among these indicators that can be reasonably attributed 

to the relationship between ecosystem status and function and human activity. Even in regions of the United 

States that are predominantly characterized by rangeland 

ecosystems, the economic and social activities occurring 

on these landscapes may have limited direct impact on 

rangeland commodities, amenities, and ecosystem services. A rural community, for example, may be gaining 

in population because of attractive features that promote 

immigration by retirees while the number of people involved in production activities on rangeland is in decline. 

Or, where rural communities diversify their economic 

base, they often provide off-ranch employment opportunities that make it easier for economically marginal 

ranching operations to stay in business. Portraying the 

health and sustainability of economies and communities, 

and then associating those communities with rangeland 

regions, provides a more complete picture from which 

to evaluate rangeland sustainability.

We concluded that the pragmatic way to address 

the lack of direct measures was to provide a minimum 

number of indicators that could describe key conceptual 

issues associated with economic and social activity. 

While this approach provides basic information, it will 

not be statistically adequate for detecting interaction effects among these variables.

The issue of scale constitutes a persistent challenge. 

Given the local nature of social and economic structures, 

and the potential for diversity of economic and social 

conditions within any county, state, or region, the methodological problem of discerning measures of activities 

directly related to rangeland conditions at broader scales 

is problematic. Aggregating the scale of analysis to a 

national level can also mask relationships that would 

only show up at more local levels.

In the United States, social and economic variables 

are frequently reported at the county level. The sampling 

units for these statistics are at a finer level, such as the 

individual, family, or household. Thus, in some cases 

opportunities may exist for spatial and temporal analysis 

below the county level. This is true of census data, where 

Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and 

Referencing (TIGER) system files make some analyses 

possible at the census tract (sub-zip code) level.

We have adopted three groupings of indicators comprising a comprehensive perspective of sustainability 

within the larger social and economic context in which 

rangelands exist and use occurs. National Economic 

Benefits describes the types of products coming from 

rangelands and valued by society. Community Well-Being 

and Capacity seeks to define the value of community 

social and human capital in rangeland-dominated areas. 

Community-Level Explanatory Indicators That Might 

Be Relevant to Sustainability seek to understand how 

communities affect rangelands. Indicators within these 

grouping are considered in terms of their importance, 

geographic variation, scale, data sufficiency, and clarity 

to stakeholders.

National Economic Benefits

National Economic Benefits indicators monitor products and benefits derived from rangelands and rangeland 

use. The interpretation of these indicators can be meaningful at the national, regional, and local levels.

The Value of Forage Harvested From 

Rangeland by Livestock

Livestock grazing is the historical economic use of 

rangelands and it continues to be an important use on both 

public and private lands. Measuring the value of this use 

remains important to understanding a major economic 

and social benefit derived from rangelands.

Collecting meaningful data on the value of forage 

harvested by livestock will not be trivial. Regional differences in the value of forage for livestock production 

exist. Private land lease rates are different by region. 

Total grazing costs (fee and non-fee costs) are highly 

variable with as much difference within regions as between regions. Grazing cost data are not collected and 

reported regularly.

This indicator appears to be meaningful at multiple 

spatial and temporal scales. Differences in data and data 

trends are observed through time and with data collected 

at the state level. Values are expected to vary among and 

within states. However, given current national data collections, the scale most appropriate would be at the state 

level, although state-level estimates of private land lease 

rates are not valid at the state level except to measure 

general trends. Overall, methods and procedures exist 

for data collecting and reporting and data sets of useable 

quality exist at the regional-national level.

While the procedures for forage valuation are accepted, their use is not always consistently applied. 

There are generally four methods that have been used to 

estimate forage value: private land lease rates adjusted for 

lessor services, competitive bid, replacement feed value, 

and marginal value analysis. Of these, the private land 
170 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

lease rate (unadjusted for lessor services) is the only one 

consistently collected on a national scale.

Lease rates are reported on a dollar/head, dollar/animal-unit-month (AUM), and dollar/cow-calf pair basis. 

The data are repeatable and reasonably accurate. The survey data have been criticized for being based on hearsay 

and the small sample size collected by state. The average 

lease rate measures both the forage value and the value 

of leasehold services provided by the lessor. No attempt 

is made in this data set to arrive at only the forage value 

for either private or public lands.

Once we are able to establish a forage value, total 

forage value can be estimated when total AUMs from 

rangeland are determined. The finest level of detail given 

current reporting of average lease rates would be at the 

state level, but there is some question whether data are 

reliable when disaggregated to that level.

The value of forage used by livestock is understandable and interpretable through time and space. In its 

current form, however, few stakeholders understand 

that it measures more than just the value of forage. This 

must be relatively constant over time if trends are to be 

monitored.

Value of Non-Livestock Products

This indicator monitors the economic value of products produced from rangeland that are not related to 

livestock production, including recreation, scenic views, 

nature experiences, open spaces, and so on. Rangelands 

produce more than just livestock and wildlife. The value 

of these non-livestock outputs is important for recognizing the diversity of outputs produced from rangelands. 

The combination of non-livestock products of interest 

to stakeholders and those that can be monitored through 

time needs to be identified. Once that combination is 

known, values can be derived through a variety of market 

and nonmarket valuation techniques.

Data availability will depend upon the specific products and services chosen to be monitored. Some data may 

exist for non-livestock outputs on federal lands and state 

trust lands, but we know of no data sources for private 

lands, some of which may be proprietary. A few wildlife 

species in specific situations have been evaluated for 

their values using both travel cost and contingent valuation methodologies with varying availability and scope. 

However, for the most part, no data exist.

This indicator will only be understood by the public if the set of non-livestock rangeland outputs to be 

valued is defined. Stakeholders understand dollar values. Some care must be taken to ensure that the dollar 

values derived through various nonmarket valuation 

techniques are comparable to those determined in the 

marketplace.

Number of Visitor Days by Activity and 

Recreational Land Class

This indicator is a measure of the amount of recreation 

use on rangelands. It has relevance to sustainability as a 

measure of benefits from recreation. Recreational land 

classification into primitive areas, roadless areas, open 

public land, private lands, and other types provides one 

possible basis to compare the types of recreation and how 

those change through time.

With the exception of national parks and monuments 

that draw visitors from around the world, rangeland 

recreation use is generally highest at sites that are 

relatively close to population centers. There are also 

regional variations in the popularity of various outdoor 

recreation activities, such as hunting and hiking. USDA 

Forest Service monitors recreation use by type of location 

(day use developed sites, overnight use developed sites, 

wilderness, other National Forest System land use, and 

viewing from corridors).

Some data set(s) exist at the regional-national level, 

but methods and procedures are not standardized. 

There are two problems associated with recreation use 

monitoring. First, different land management agencies 

use different measures and obtain data in different 

ways, although the lack of consistency will decrease 

somewhat when the Forest Service and Bureau of Land 

Management (BLM) switch to a “visitors” measure 

instead of the current “recreation visitor-days” measure 

(an RVD is 12 person-hours, a measure that is more 

valid because it better accounts for duration of use, but 

has proven too difficult for the multiple-use agencies 

to measure over extensive landscapes.) Second, these 

measures are not tied to land types but to ownerships. 

There is not a good way to aggregate use data from 

multiple agencies, although the Forest Service attempts 

to estimate use across ownerships in its periodic RPA 

assessments.

Reported Threats to Quality of 

Recreation Experiences

This indicator is envisioned as a way to address 

a problem inherent in recreation use; i.e., rangeland 

health is influenced by the physical and social impacts 

of recreation use, and these impacts are not necessarily 

correlated with user density.

Biophysical impacts of recreation typically follow 

a curvilinear pattern where marginal changes, such as 

soil compaction, become smaller as use levels increase. 

Therefore, changes in visitor numbers may or may not indicate loss of value at the site level, depending on whether 

use is already low, moderate, or high. Social impacts 

of recreation, like crowding and conflict between user 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 171

groups, are more dependent upon characteristics of the 

use and users than on simple numbers of users, although 

the potential for conflicts between users increases with 

the number of users.

Accordingly a useful indicator of recreation value 

should account for quality of use as well as quantity. One 

way to do this would be to create a composite index. Such 

an index could address trends in crowding complaints 

by recreationists, levels of conflicts among recreation 

user groups, and depreciative behaviors (vandalism, rule 

violations, etc.).

There is also the need to develop quantitative data 

related to physical features (for example, road density, 

trails, home densities) to complement the subjective information provided by managers and put it in context.

Standardized methods and procedures for data collecting and reporting exist at the regional-national 

level, but useable data set(s) do not exist at the regional-national level. In particular, no index of quality 

of recreation use has been devised. The method is 

technically feasible, easily aggregated, interpreted, and 

repeated using standard survey protocols. Measures are 

subjective so there will be random error associated with 

differences in the perceptions of persons completing the 

questionnaires; however, there is no reason to suspect 

systematic data biases.

Value of Investment in Rangeland, 

Rangeland Improvements, and 

Recreation/Tourism Infrastructure

This indicator monitors expenditures on new and 

existing structures and similar inputs for a variety of 

uses. It is the amount agencies and individuals actually 

spend on infrastructure for any given use of rangelands. 

It would be useful if data could be found to differentiate between public investment, private investment, and 

cost sharing. The indicator should depict how much the 

current generation is willing to invest in maintaining 

current usefulness of the resource base for a variety of 

uses. Investment explicitly implies that funds are being expended to obtain future returns from productive 

rangeland uses. Productive rangeland uses include more 

than just livestock production.

A value of investment indicator is conceptually feasible, but no regional-national methods, procedures, or 

data sets currently exist. U.S. federal agencies reports on 

units and dollars spent annually for range improvements. 

Some data for private lands may be available through 

Natural Resources Conservation Service and some of 

the USDA subsidy/cost-share programs. It may also be 

possible to develop a data collection protocol where none 

exists by using a standard survey.

Rate of Return on Investment for Range 

Livestock Enterprises

This indicates whether ranch families are making 

a competitive rate of return on their investment from 

producing livestock on rangelands. If the rate of return 

on rangeland-based livestock operations is not competitive, it means that other forms of returns are important, 

other sources of income are important, or that the ranch 

is likely to be converted to other uses.

Data to monitor returns on rangeland investments are 

conceptually feasible or initially promising, but no regional-national methods, procedures or data sets currently 

exist. In the United States, western universities periodically prepare cost and return estimates for range livestock 

operations at the county, region, or state level. Although 

standardization is improving, methodological differences 

exist across institutions and researchers. All geographic 

areas are generally not updated annually, and many cost 

and return studies are only done every five to 10 years. 

Some states have no information. The USDA Economic 

Research Service (ERS) makes cost and return estimates 

at the national scale using surveys conducted every five to 

eight years for each commodity. USDA Livestock budgets 

are defined across wide geographic areas.

Livestock cost and return estimates consistently show 

that livestock producers are not currently and have not 

in the past made a competitive rate of return on investment. Ranches are overpriced relative to the value of 

the livestock produced. Livestock is the only product 

considered in the cost and return series.

For data to be useful, new data sources will have to 

be initiated. These data would need to use similar accounting procedures and valuation of opportunity costs. 

It would have to be done in a timely manner. Because 

land appreciation is a major long-term return from ranch 

ownership, this variable must in a site specific way).

Number and Value of Conservation 

Easements Purchased

This indicator would measure the number of conservation easements and/or the number of acres protected 

under conservation easement. This is an indicator of 

the presence and trend of open-space, and acts as a 

measure of amenity availability. It speaks to the desirability, adaptability, and resilience of communities, and 

the community perception of the importance/value of 

that land use.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting; and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. Data are compiled by various 

land trusts and conservation groups and reported centrally 

to the Land Trust Alliance (LTA) at http://www.lta.org. 
172 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The LTA compiles information about conservation easements by state. Data on the number and size are collected 

from surveys with known groups doing land trusts and 

conservation easements. USDA ERS also reports upon 

the extent of land trusts in the United States.

Expenditures (Monetary and In-Kind) on 

Restoration Activities

This indicator measures the amount of funds that 

organizations and individuals contribute to rangeland 

restoration activities. It indicates the strength of importance people place on restoring rangelands. These 

expenditures are made to maintain, enhance, or restore 

the rangeland ecosystem without explicit monetary future 

returns expected from the investment.

No regional or national methods, procedures, or data 

sets currently exist for monitoring restoration expenditures. Some data are available at local levels by agency or 

organization; however, costs for rangeland improvements 

on private lands are nearly always proprietary.

The Threat or Pressure on the Integrity 

of Cultural and Spiritual Resource 

Values

This indicator measures the intensity of concern and 

pressures for management. Cultural and spiritual resources are assets valued by all sets of people. The indicator is 

important because it assesses the status of a characteristic 

of rangelands valued by people and protected by federal 

law. We assume that, when spiritual or cultural values 

are threatened by activities on rangelands, citizens will 

suffer loss of value from those rangelands, and may act 

to protect those values in ways that decrease the value 

of other resources; for example, by restricting livestock 

grazing or recreation access.

This indicator is conceptually feasible and promising, 

but no regional-national methods, procedures, or data sets 

currently exist. Any measures will be subjective so care 

must be taken to ensure against bias of any kind in the 

estimates. Aggregated data should be reliable if sufficient 

responses are obtained on a regular basis. Despite the 

legal protection afforded to cultural/spiritual resources, 

there currently is no regular, large-scale effort to monitor their status.

Community Well-Being and 

Capacity

Indicators in this Section are intended to portray 

social structure. When measurements are made at 

anything larger than a community level, they begin to 

lose meaning when the appropriate theoretical concept is 

a community or other local unit of social organization. In 

the United States, county-level data provide insights of 

social structure, thus giving a reasonable approximation 

of local socio-economic trends.

Poverty Rate—General

USDA, in cooperation with other federal agencies, 

sets the poverty rate at the level where one-third of the 

household budget or more is going to food. It is assumed 

that any household that spends one-third of its budget on 

food is unlikely to be maintained at a minimal quality of 

life. This general poverty rate is a gross measure of social 

stratification that indicates the level of poverty within a 

county, and is indicator is needed to interpret interaction 

effects with other indicators.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. Data are collected and reported 

as part of the U.S. Census of Population.

Poverty Rate—Children

This is a ratio of persons less than 17 years of age 

who live in households determined to be at or below the 

poverty threshold. It measures the proportion of children 

in poverty. Higher rates are associated with lower integration into the community and the higher likelihood of 

undesirable outcomes like reduced health, human capital, 

and social capital. This indicator is needed to interpret 

interaction effects with other indicators.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting; and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. Data are collected and reported 

as part of the U.S. Census of Population.

Income Equality

This indicator measures the extent to which income is 

equally distributed among households in the economy. It 

addresses economic distribution and equity. It indicates 

the general welfare of the community by looking at the 

distribution of people across the range of incomes. It is 

a direct measure of economic and social stratification. 

Equality levels are positively correlated with other measures of community cohesion or integration.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting 

and reporting and data sets of usable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. Data are collected at the county 

level and this is the most useful scale. The use of Gini 

coefficients to measure income equality is one standard 

method. Such coefficients are available at web sites such 

as http://www.unc.edu/~nielsen/data/data.htm.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 173

Index of Social Structure Quality

Social science literature often addresses the multidimensionality of concepts that are being measured using 

indices – the adding together of multiple indicators to 

create a single broad based measure. These indices are 

subject to the same rules of validity and reliability as the 

data upon which they are based. The quality of social 

structure could include access to and quality of medical 

care (for example, per capita hospital beds, physicians, 

nurses), presence of cultural community services, public 

recreational facilities (expenditures per capita), and crime 

rates. This is an indicator of the capacity of communities to address the quality-of-life and may indicate their 

willingness to address environmental issues.

Standardized methods and procedures for data collecting and reporting exist at the regional-national level, but 

useable data do not exist at the regional-national level. 

The base data are available, but no specific index has 

been developed.

It is imperative to recognize here, as well as other 

places where indices are proposed, that indices can 

hide countervailing influences. Thus, increases in one 

component can cancel out decreases in another. Also, 

while indices can simplify the presentation of or results 

to non-specialists, they can bury political and other biases, thus allowing more benign but deceptive labels. In 

general, it is very difficult to keep indicators politically 

and ethically neutral, such that they don’t favor some 

groups over others.

Community Satisfaction

This indicator measures the degree to which the local 

community feels about sustaining local resources and 

attitudes that contribute to a social foundation for acting 

to achieve stability over the long-term. This indicator 

is hypothetical at this point, but could provide useful 

information on how communities feel about natural 

resources.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting; and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. In the United States, the National 

Opinion Research Center collects data that may be useful. 

However, data improvements are greatly needed for this 

indicator to be viable.

Federal Transfers by Categories 

(Individual, Infrastructure, Agriculture)

Federal transfer payments (for example, food stamps, 

social security, Medicare/Medicaid, Forest Service 

payments-in-lieu-of-taxes, crop loans, crop subsidy payments, emergency livestock feed payments) are relatively 

stable sources of income to individuals and local governments during most economic conditions. The indicator 

measures another aspect of economic resiliency and 

capacity to endure changes in economic condition.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting 

and reporting and data sets of useable quality exist at 

the regional-national level. The U.S. Department of 

Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional 

Economic Information Service, reports upon these data 

for counties, states, and the Nation as a whole.

Presence and Tenure of Natural 

Resource Non-Governmental 

Organizations at the Local Level

The presence of private sector non-government organizations (NGOs) is considered to be an indicator 

of professional administrative capacity for managing 

community projects relating to rangeland sustainability 

that otherwise would be unsupported by government 

agencies. It is also an indicator of how strongly such 

groups feel about the importance of natural resources 

in an area.

The indicator is conceptually feasible or initially 

promising, but no regional-national methods, procedures, 

or data sets currently exist. A comprehensive data set 

would require collaboration among various NGOs, including land trusts, involved in rangeland management 

and stewardship.

Sources of Income and Level of 

Dependence on Livestock Production 

for Household Income

This indicator measures the dependence of ranch 

families on livestock production for household income. 

Recent surveys have shown that few U.S. ranchers rely 

totally on the ranch for family income. Measuring the 

livestock component of disposable income and the percentage of ranchers highly dependent on livestock for 

income are both potentially useful measures. Higher 

dependence on ranch income may be correlated with 

grazing intensity during droughts, and the associated 

ability to follow sustainable grazing practices.

Useable data sets do not exist at the regional-national 

level. Data sources are available for components of 

the questions about dependency on livestock production for household income. Some data may provide an 

indication of level of dependency. However, the data 

collection interval is problematic. Census of Agriculture 

data are collected every five years and do not distinguish 

between farms and ranches. The Agricultural Resource 

Management Survey data base may be another potential 
174 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

source but these data are collected at different intervals.

The Census of Agriculture reports on operator characteristics. Three reported characteristics could be useful 

for this indicator: (1) On farm operated versus not on 

farm operated; (2) Operators by principal occupation, 

Farming versus other; and (3) Operators by days worked 

off farm, broken down by day categories. Data are not 

available specifically on the level of income dependency 

on livestock production from any known source on a 

consistent basis.

Employment Diversity

An Economic Diversity Index would respond too the 

number and size of industries/sectors present in an economy. It is typically measured in terms of employment. 

We think that economic diversity is related to economic 

resiliency and the ability of an economy to respond to 

and adapt to changes in conditions.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. The U.S. Census Bureau collects 

this information as part of the Economic Census Data. 

Changes from Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 

to the North American Industrial Classification System 

(NAICS) makes comparisons over longer time periods 

difficult. Only national and state level SIC and NAICS 

data can be compared.

In the United States, economic diversity indices, using the Shannon-Weaver entropy function, have been 

computed for all U.S. counties, labor market areas, BEA 

functional economic areas, BEA component economic 

areas, and states using IMPLAN employment data.

Agriculture (Ranch/Farm) Structure

This is a multi-faceted measure of direct production 

in agriculture. In the United States, a farm or ranch is 

defined as having $1,000 or more in gross annual agricultural sales. Other facets of this indicator include type of 

commodity raised, acres in production, categories of farm 

sales (measure of scale), and the business organization 

(for example, individual, partnership, corporate).

Farm structure is an indirect indicator of production 

capacity for food and fiber. It has become a data point for 

different perspectives to assess whether or not production 

can be sustained. There is not broad agreement on how 

the data might be interpreted, but there is agreement that 

these data are the basis for assessment.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting 

and reporting and data sets of useable quality exist at 

the regional-national level. Potential sources of data 

are provided by USDA National Agricultural Statistics 

Service and USDA ERS.

Years of Education

This indicator measures the years of formal education 

of a population. It is an important measure of the human, 

and to a lesser extent the social, capital available for 

sustaining social groups and communities.

Data are collected by both census enumeration and 

through the Current Population Survey.

Community-Level Explanatory 

Indicators that may be 

Relevant to Sustainability

Indicators in this Section are the likely to be directly tied 

to rangeland sustainability. They describe the population 

and conditions in local areas in ways that are conceptually linked to good rangeland use and stewardship. They 

also attempt to capture some of the underlying beliefs 

and attitudes in local areas relevant to the way people 

relate to, and interact with, natural resources in general 

and rangeland in particular. They are linked to sustainability with uncertainty because the linkages are neither 

documented nor unambiguous. Establishing some of the 

specific linkages between the indicators and rangeland 

sustainability is a subject for continued research.

Value Produced by Agriculture and 

Recreation Industries as Percent of 

Total Economy

Agriculture and recreation based industries appear 

to be the two important sectors of the economy related 

to rangeland sustainability. While neither occurs exclusively on rangelands, their trends in rangeland-dominated 

counties should respond to pressures being placed on 

rangelands, particularly as population densities increase 

and economies change.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. While both data and methods are 

available, the linkage between the data and sustainability 

measures needs to be strengthened. In the United States, 

data are available from the U.S. Census Bureau.

Employment, Unemployment, 

Underemployed, and Discouraged 

Workers by Industrial Sector

This indicator provides information on the vitality 

of the local economy. High relative percentages in the 

unemployed, underemployed, and discouraged categories indicate an economy in trouble. Underemployment 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 175

occurs when one is employed, but at less than the desired level; that is, employed part time when full time 

employment is desired. Discouraged workers are those 

who are unemployed and no longer actively looking 

for employment. High proportions of such workers in 

rangeland-related industries (for example, livestock 

production, recreation, tourism) may signify decreased 

health and vigor of rangeland related activities. Such 

changes would indicate how society was demanding 

uses from the rangelands and how such demand was 

being supplied.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level.

Land Tenure, Land Use, and Ownership 

Patterns by Size Classes

This indicator measures changes in ownership, such as 

public vs. private and production agriculture vs. exurban 

development, ownership stability, and land use. It is important to sustainability because land use changes have 

been shown to have multiple effects on rangelands (for 

example, loss of open space, habitat fragmentation, and 

noxious weeds). Land use changes also can limit future 

options for the land.

The indicator seems conceptually feasible or initially 

promising, but no regional-national methods, procedures 

or data sets currently exist. Most relevant data come 

from the quinquennial Census of Agriculture and the 

Agriculture Economics and Land Ownership Survey. 

However, data are not reported in a form meaningful to 

this indicator. Sales classes rather than tract sizes report 

ownership and tenure data. One of the problems appears 

to be that neither the Census nor USDA currently sorts 

the data by tract size.

Population Pyramid and Population 

Change

Population pyramids are the most common descriptor of population structure. It requires actuarial data on 

gender and age. Data are organized into five-year age 

cohorts. Each population pyramid provides a snapshot of 

the distribution of age groups and gender. For example, 

the baby boom cohorts between 1945 and 1960 have 

bulged out as they moved up through the population 

structure.

This measure directly provides evidence of community sustainability. A population pyramid that varies little 

from the youngest to the oldest cohorts is considered to 

be stable. The proportion of population in different age 

classes can be informative; for example, very young 

or very old age structures indicate differing needs with 

respect to social and economic goods and services, some 

of which are derived from or associated with rangeland 

activities.

This indicator would measure changes in components 

of the population between base years, probably U.S. 

Census years. Births, deaths, and net migration patterns 

are also important components to understand population 

change in a community. Some changes in population 

structure are associated with different pressures on land, 

water, and fiscal resources.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting; and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level.

Income Differentials from Migration

This indicator measures the differentials between existing household income in an area and household income 

of in-migrants. It addresses whether the people moving 

in are wealthier than those already there. Retirees or the 

wealthy do not usually rely on local natural resources for 

livelihoods in the same fashion as long-time residents.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting 

and reporting, and data sets of useable quality exist 

at the regional-national level. Data are available from 

U.S. Census population reports, the CIESIN population 

dataset for migrations, and the LANDSCAN dataset. 

County-to-county migration files that directly measure 

household income from current residents, out-migrants, 

and in-migrants by county are available from Internal 

Revenue Service data sets.

Length of Residence (Native, Immigrant 

More Than 5 Years, Less Than 5 Years)

This indicator measures the years of residence in a 

particular community and relates strongly to social cohesion/integration and willingness to interact with others 

for a common good. This indicator is also a measure of 

economic stability.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting and data sets of useable quality exist at the 

regional-national level. The Census of Population and 

the Current Population Survey collect data on tenure 

of residence for households. The primary question is 

whether or not a person has lived in a place for less than 

five years.

Income by Work Location versus 

Residence

This indicator relates to whether income is generated 

where one lives or from outside the area of residence. 

It should relate to the importance of the residence 
176 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

communities, both economically and socially, to the 

income earner. It measures whether rangelands are providing the desirable rural setting where people want to live, 

but without the employment opportunities they require.

Methods and procedures exist for data collecting and 

reporting, and data sets of useable quality exist at the regional-national level; for example, location adjustments 

in the Regional Economic Information System produced 

by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the journey-towork data from Bureau of the Census.

Public Beliefs, Attitudes, and Behavioral 

Intentions toward Natural Resources

Public beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors influence 

cultural, legal, and public policy decisions toward the 

management, consumption, and preservation of natural 

resources. In order for rangeland management decisions 

to be socially sustainable (especially on public lands), 

they must achieve and retain some minimum threshold 

of social acceptability. This indicator would provide for 

regular measurement of preferences, attitudes, and intentions with respect to rangelands. Social science research 

indicates that a person’s behavior in political and planning arenas is influenced by his/her beliefs, attitudes, and 

behavioral intentions.

Comprehensive data sources for this indicator are 

generally not available. Some data sets exist at the 

regional-national level, but methods and procedures 

are not standardized. In the United States, the National 

Opinion Research Center maintains data sets, but they 

do not presently assess rangeland-related issues. Some 

national-level studies have evaluated public beliefs and 

attitudes regarding federal rangeland management and 

analyses included regional comparisons, but they have 

not been repeated through time. Methods and survey 

instruments from such studies may be modified for 

periodic re-sampling, although additional information 

would need to be gathered on issues not considered in 

the original studies.

Conclusion

Our development of indicators for the social and economic benefits criterion has focused upon three levels. 

The first emphasis was on the products derived from 

rangeland ecosystems that are used by communities. 

Second, we focused on the communities themselves 

and how they react to what is happening in the larger 

ecosystem. Finally, we tried to examine whether what 

is happening in communities is having an impact on 

surrounding rangeland ecosystems. In order for this approach to be useful, we reiterate that data reporting must 

be made at the rangeland county level.

In order to be helpful in policy discussions, we 

need simple, yet comprehensive, composite indices 

of socioeconomic conditions that can be portrayed in 

understandable ways. Perhaps, a remaining task is to 

develop a composite index for each of the three primary 

groupings. While all the background data associated with 

the complete set of indicators is developed and considered, it is the next step to offer information to the policy 

discussion with an answer to the “so what?” question. 

While we have not taken this step at this point, failing 

to do this task only delays the inevitable and leaves one 

with a false sense of security associated with the sustainability discussion.

In closing, we believe that much of the data needed 

to assess this criterion are currently available. Indicators 

in the first grouping, National Economic Benefits, have 

the weakest link to adequate data; only two have good, 

existing data while two others have partial data. Taken 

as a whole, the set of indicators should provide information that can be used to assess the social and economic 

benefits derived from the Nation’s rangelands. How this 

information is integrated with the ecological and legal 

information into a coherent statement of sustainability 

remains to be seen. The issue still remains whether data 

can be disaggregated to the level that is relevant to rangeland dependent community sustainability.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 177

Monitoring Riparian 

Restoration: A Management 

Perspective

Scientifically sound monitoring and research programs 

have the potential to strongly influence how we look 

at the middle Rio Grande’s riparian forest or “bosque” 

and approach restoration, now and in the future. The 

question for bosque landowners and managers like the 

Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD) is 

how monitoring fits into a management scheme—that 

is, whether, when and how information from different 

monitoring programs can be integrated efficiently into 

restoration plans and implementation strategies, including best management practices.

There are numerous monitoring and research projects 

in the middle Rio Grande concerned with the river and 

riparian ecosystem. Many of these efforts are taking place 

on land owned by the MRGCD. At least three efforts 

have used public funding to identify and map restoration, research, and monitoring projects in the middle Rio 

Grande bosque ecosystem. Collecting and assimilating 

Monitoring Riparian Restoration: A Management 

Perspective

Yasmeen Najmi, Planner, and Sterling Grogan, Biologist and Planner, Middle Rio Grande 

Conservancy District, Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—As the largest landholder of cottonwood-dominated riparian forest or “bosque” 

in the 150 miles of the middle Rio Grande from the Cochiti Dam to the Bosque del 

Apache National Wildlife Refuge, the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District (MRGCD; 

a political subdivision of the State of New Mexico) and its cooperators are implementing “fuels reduction” projects throughout the bosque. Fuels reduction is defined as the 

removal of exotic phreatophytes such as Tamarisk (Tamarix ramosissima) and Russian 

olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia), treatment of the exotic stumps or stems with herbicide, 

and removing most dead and down wood to reduce fire hazard. Primary objectives 

for fuels reduction projects include: Fire management; habitat diversity; water salvage, 

and recreation access. While projects were initially small-scale, recently increased 

funding, and the availability of mechanical equipment such as mulcher-grinders and 

tree extractors, has enabled managers to implement projects more rapidly and on a 

larger scale. Concern for the effects of fuels reduction activities on wildlife, particularly 

the southwestern willow flycatcher (a Federally endangered species), and the growing 

influence of fire as the primary disturbance force in the bosque, has led to the establishment of two research projects by the MRGCD and the USDA Forest Service Rocky 

Mountain Research Station. These studies are examining the effects of different fuels 

reduction treatments and wildfire on vegetation, water resources, wildlife, and fuel loads 

in the middle Rio Grande bosque. They and other studies are part of an overall focus 

on bosque restoration that involves monitoring and research emphasizing ecosystemlevel processes. The University of New Mexico’s Bosque Ecosystem Monitoring Program 

(BEMP), utilizing K-12 students between San Juan Pueblo and Lemitar, New Mexico, 

monitors monthly changes in litterfall biomass, precipitation and groundwater depth 

at 19 similarly organized sites. BEMP is now supported to begin monitoring large-scale 

restoration work in the Albuquerque reach of the Rio Grande. In addition, universities 

and government agencies are monitoring evapotranspiration from bosque vegetation 

as well as groundwater levels and movement in order to learn how restoration activities 

affect water supply. Scientifically sound monitoring and research programs have the 

potential to strongly influence how we look at the bosque and approach restoration, now 

and in the future. The question for bosque managers like the MRGCD is how monitoring fits into a management scheme—that is, whether, when and how information from 

different monitoring programs can be integrated efficiently into restoration plans and 

implementation strategies, including best management practices.
178 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

this information from a variety of sources is a difficult 

task, however, and most of these efforts are focused on 

particular programs and don’t claim to be comprehensive. 

Efforts to identify monitoring efforts thus far have not 

included evaluations of their scopes and methods. This 

information is needed to determine whether data from 

different programs is comparable and/or usable by managers but raises the question of whether those doing the 

monitoring should be the ones to evaluate methods and 

interpret monitoring data (Crawford 2004).

Other important questions for managers are how to do 

monitoring in the context of ecosystem-based management and who will do the monitoring? Coordination of 

groups conducting or funding monitoring and research is 

essential but can be thwarted by differences in management objectives and lack of planning and communication 

among agencies. This can result in different policies to 

address similar management issues (Crawford 2004). In 

the absence of good monitoring design, with replication 

of restoration methods, project design and implementation can be based on managers’ personal observations and 

experience and/or the perspectives of other managers, 

without the benefit of comparative evaluation.

There are examples in the middle Rio Grande of 

managers developing monitoring programs and using 

results to develop or adapt management activities. The 

Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge developed 

salt cedar removal (McDaniel and Taylor 2003) and controlled flooding studies (Sprenger and others 2002), the 

results of which have been published and used to design 

restoration projects on the Refuge. Adaptive management 

plans and monitoring programs are being developed for 

habitat restoration plans for the active floodplain on the 

Refuge (Dello Russo 2004) and from San Acacia to San 

Marcial, New Mexico as part of the Save our Bosque 

Task Force’s Conceptual Restoration Plan (Tetra Tech, 

Inc. 2004). These plans will help coordinate and focus 

monitoring and management for a large reach of the 

middle Rio Grande.

The Middle Rio Grande Bosque Fuels Reduction and 

Wildfire Effects Studies are examples of cooperative 

research projects, involving multiple agencies interested 

in answering questions about the best way to accomplish 

hazardous fuels reduction and post-fire rehabilitation 

in the bosque ecosystem. The Fuels Reduction Study’s 

research design contains replications of three fuels reduction treatments with control sites to determine effects on 

wildlife, groundwater tables and vegetation. This data 

can be used to guide objectives for restoration and rehabilitation projects and to develop specific prescriptions. 

However, time is needed to evaluate treatment effects 

and restoration activities are moving forward without 

the benefit of this information. Managers must weigh 

the possible negative impacts of implementing largescale fuels reduction projects with the risks and effects 

of catastrophic wildfire.

The Middle Rio Grande Endangered Species Act 

(Collaborative Program), while focusing monitoring 

activities on habitat restoration and protection for targeted endangered species, nevertheless provides one 

mechanism for stakeholders to collaboratively develop, 

implement and evaluate monitoring programs and target 

funding toward coordinated efforts. The Collaborative 

Program is also in the process of developing a database 

that would be a logical focal point for storing monitoring 

plans, data and other information that could be used by 

anyone developing restoration projects in the Program 

area. It is critical for Program signatories and others to 

provide input on the content and form of the database, 

the frequency of database updates and how monitoring 

programs will be evaluated relative to Program goals.

The MRGCD and others have proposed efforts to 

collaboratively develop and evaluate restoration goals, 

methods and outcomes by developing a strategy for 

bosque “landscape alteration,” and by revising and expanding the Draft Prescription Guide for the Rio Grande 

Bosque (Najmi and Wicklund 2000), which contains 

objectives and prescriptions for fuels reduction and fire 

rehabilitation projects.

In 2004, Dr. Cliff Crawford, Professor Emeritus of 

Biology at the University of New Mexico and Sterling 

Grogan, Biologist/Planner for the MRGCD, developed a 

proposal for reducing catastrophic bosque fires and water 

use by riparian vegetation through landscape alteration 

(Crawford and Grogan 2004). The suggested approaches 

for reorganizing the bosque’s landscape were the subject 

of a workshop hosted at the University of New Mexico’s 

Utton Transboundary Resources Center on May 25, 2004. 

Participants commented on the basic principles outlined 

in the proposal, raised additional questions and began to 

discuss implementation strategies and considerations in 

break-out groups. A workshop report was produced and 

distributed that articulated the following objectives for 

bosque landscape alteration:

Reorganize the bosque landscape to retain, within current constraints, its historical processes and wildlife 

communities

Recreate, by doing this, its former patchy mosaic of 

native trees and open spaces along the present day 

river’s narrow floodplain, while containing the distribution of invasive species

Reduce, by having created this mosaic, the intensity of 

bosque wildfires both at the wildland-urban interface 

and within the rest of the bosque, and the landscape 

water depletion by bosque evapotranspiration (ET) 

(Utton TRC, 2004).

1.

2.

3.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 179

Assuming these goals and associated implementation 

strategies are adopted by bosque managers and integrated 

into planning efforts and projects, a monitoring program 

must be developed to determine whether these goals are 

met. If monitoring criteria are components of the goals, 

the following could serve as initial guidance:

Monitor changes in habitat diversity and corresponding biological diversity, changes in water availability 

and ET, fuels loads and fire behavior.

We then must examine the question of the minimum 

level of monitoring required to indicate whether we are 

meeting goals. The following is a preliminary list for 

consideration:

Vegetation structure, composition and cover

Bird and mammal populations

Endangered or sensitive species habitat

Invertebrates

Fuel load estimates (dead and live)

Surface and groundwater hydrology, and ET (in select 

areas)

Fire extent, behavior and intensity

Soils and geomorphology

Other conditions such as weather, soil and fuel moistures

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Out of the suite of current restoration and/or monitoring programs in the middle Rio Grande bosque, four 

are collecting, or have the potential to collect, a range 

of data for multiple sites throughout the middle Rio 

Grande bosque with reference sites for comparison. 

These programs are The University of New Mexico’s 

Bosque Ecosystem Monitoring Program (BEMP), the 

Middle Rio Grande Bosque Fuels Reduction and Wildfire 

Effects Studies, and the Middle Rio Grande Endangered 

Species Collaborative Program. Table 1 provides a broad 

overview of the scope and locations of these programs 

to begin to assess whether their methods are adequate 

to monitor the outcomes of bosque landscape alteration 

and whether the results from different programs might be 

comparable or complementary. Monitoring components 

for BEMP (Eichhorst and others 2002) and the Middle 

Rio Grande Bosque Fuels Reduction (Finch and others 

2003a) and Wildfire Effects Studies (Finch and others 

2003b) were taken from annual reports submitted to the 

MRGCD, and updates for BEMP were obtained from 

program volunteers. Monitoring components for the 

Endangered Species Collaborative Program are taken 

from the Program’s Draft Monitoring Plan (MRGESACP 

2004). The Draft Monitoring Plan has not been approved 

by the Collaborative Program but is useful for comparison purposes.

Table 1. Comparison of four monitoring programs in the middle Rio Grande bosque.

Program name and location by New Mexico County

Monitoring Components BEMPa BFRSb BWESc MRGESACPd

Vegetation structure X X X

Vegetation composition X X X X

Vegetation cover X X X X

Post-fire veg. growth and survival X

Fuels inventories X X X

Fire intensity & behavior

Leaf fall X

Hydrology (groundwater) X X X X

Hydrology (surface water) X X

Water quality X

Riparian evapotranspiration X

Geomorphology X

Bird surveys (breeding) X X X

Nest monitoring X X X

Bird surveys (fall & winter) X X X

Arthropods X X

Herpetofauna X

Bats/Small mammals X

Ichthyofauna X

Endangered species X X

Soils X X X

Precipitation X

a Bosque Ecosystem Monitoring Program (Rio Arriba, Sandoval, Bernalillo, Valencia, Socorro counties)

b Middle Rio Grande Bosque Fuels Reduction Study (Bernalillo, Valencia, Socorro counties)

c Middle Rio Grande Bosque Wildfire Effects Study (Valencia and Socorro counties)

d Middle Rio Grande Endangered Species Collaborative Program (Taos, Rio Arriba, Santa Fe, Sandoval, Bernalillo, 

Valencia, Socorro counties
180 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Monitoring is an essential component of any restoration program but often gets inadequate attention and 

planning in the rush to implement projects, and can be 

the first budget reduced or eliminated when funding 

shortfalls occur. Monitoring programs developed as part 

of ecosystem-based or large-scale restoration plans may 

result in better designs that answer the critical questions, 

with coordination and support among stakeholders. 

Monitoring programs developed as part of larger restoration efforts are also more likely to be peer-reviewed. 

Some of the current large-scale restoration efforts in the 

middle Rio Grande provide the best opportunities to develop coordinated monitoring and adaptive management 

plans and secure the funding to implement them.

References

Crawford, Clifford. July 29, 2004. Notes. University of New 

Mexico Biology Dept., Albuquerque, NM. 2 p.

Crawford, Clifford and Sterling Grogan. 2004. Bosque 

landscape alteration will reduce fires and conserve water: 

a proposal. University of New Mexico Biology Dept. and 

Middle Rio Grande Conservancy District, Albuquerque, 

NM. 6 p.

Dello Russo, Gina. July 23, 2004. Notes. Bosque del Apache 

National Wildlife Refuge. San Antonio, NM. 2 p.

Eichhorst, Kim D., Mary C. Stuever, Mary M. Dwyer, 

Daniel C. Shaw and Clifford C. Crawford. 2002. Bosque 

Ecosystem Monitoring Program (BEMP): First Annual 

Supplement: 2001. University of New Mexico Open File 

Report 02-2, prepared in cooperation with Bosque School, 

Albuquerque, NM. 29 p.

Finch, Deborah M., Roy Jemison, Alice Chung-MacCoubrey, 

June M. Galloway, Michael D. Means and David L. 

Hawksworth. 2003a. Progress report for Middle Rio 

Grande Fuels Reduction Study 2000 – 2002 Rocky 

Mountain Research Station – Albuquerque, New Mexico. 

USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station 

Albuquerque Lab, Albuquerque, NM. 26 p., not including 

appendices.

Finch, Deborah M., June M. Galloway and Jeffrey F. Kelly. 

2003b. 2003 Annual Report Effects of Wildfire on Avian, 

Arthropod and Plant Communities along the Middle Rio 

Grande. Prepared by USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Albuquerque, NM. and Oklahoma 

Biological Survey, University of Oklahoma, Norman, 

OK. 35 p.

McDaniel, Kirk and John P. Taylor. 2003. Salt cedar recovery 

after herbicide-burn and mechanical clearing practices. 

Journal of Range Management 56(5): 439-45.

Middle Rio Grande Endangered Species Collaborative 

Program (MRGESACP) – Science and Habitat Restoration 

Subcommittees. February 9, 2004. Middle Rio Grande 

Endangered Species Act Collaborative Program Interim 

Monitoring Plan: Program Management Review Draft. New 

Mexico Ecological Services Office, U.S. Fish and Wildlife 

Service, Albuquerque, NM. 30 p.

Najmi, Yasmeen and Charles Wicklund. 2000. Draft 

Prescription Guide for the Rio Grande Bosque. New Mexico 

EMNRD Forestry Division, Santa Fe, NM. 27 p.

Sprenger, M. D., L. M. Smith and J. P. Taylor. 2002. Restoration 

of riparian habitat using experimental flooding. Wetlands 

22: 49-57.

Tetra Tech, Inc., ISG Surface Water Group. 2004. Conceptual 

Restoration Plan for the Active Floodplain of the Rio 

Grande San Acacia to San Marcial, New Mexico: Final 

Draft Report. Volume 2 of 4 (Phases IV and V). Prepared for 

the Save Our Bosque Task Force, Socorro, NM. 226 p.

Utton Transboundary Resources Center. May 25, 2004. Bosque 

Landscape Alteration Workshop plenary sessions notes. 

Susan Kelly and Chris Garcia, eds. University of New 

Mexico School of Law, Albuquerque, NM. 24 p.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 181

Introduction

People are having an ever increasing impact on local, regional, and global environments. This impact is 

particularly significant in and around urban areas (for 

example, cities, towns, villages). Urban forests (trees 

in urban areas) can mitigate certain detrimental human 

impacts and improve environmental quality and human 

health. Urban forests can provide clean air and water, recreation, energy conservation, carbon storage, protection 

from ultraviolet radiation, cooler air temperatures, habitat 

for wildlife, forest-based products, and aesthetic values, 

and enhance the social and psychological well-being of 

millions of Americans. As a valuable national resource 

that will continue to increase in extent and importance in 

the years ahead, urban forests face many pressures (for 

example, insects, diseases, storms, and pollution) that can 

affect forest health and numerous related benefits.

In 1997, a National Research Council report titled 

“Forest Lands in Perspective” recognized that urban and 

community nonfederal forests are the fastest growing 

forests in the United States and recommended strengthening federal forest health monitoring of these forests. 

In 1998, USDA Forest Service Chief Michael Dombeck 

developed a Natural Resource Agenda that emphasized 

sustainable development of communities, and Deputy 

Chief Phil Janik released an action strategy for State and 

Private Forestry that would increase forest health monitoring in urban areas. In 1999, former USDA Secretary 

Dan Glickman noted “We still have plenty of work to do 

to make Americans take notice of the dwindling natural 

resource base in their cities” (Glickman 1999)

In a survey of forestry professionals regarding urban 

forest health needs, less than 25 percent of the respondents ranked the overall health of the urban forests in 

their state as good to excellent, 99 percent indicated that 

Urban Forest Health Monitoring in the United States

David J. Nowak, Project Leader, Robert Hoehn, Biological Science Technician, 

Jeffrey T. Walton, Research Forester, Daniel E. Crane, Information Technology Specialist, 

and Jack C. Stevens, Forester, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern Research Station, 

Syracuse, NY

Daniel Twardus, Forest Health Specialist, and Anne Cumming, Urban Forester, USDA Forest 

Service, Northeastern Area State and Private Forestry Morgantown, WV

Manfred Mielke, Forest Health Monitoring Specialist, USDA Forest Service, Northeastern 

Area State and Private Forestry, St. Paul, MN

Bill Smith, Research Quantitative Ecologist, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 

Forest Sciences Laboratory, Research Triangle Park, NC

Abstract—Trees in cities can contribute significantly to human health and environmental quality. Unfortunately, little is known about the urban forest resource and what it 

contributes to the local, regional, and national societal and economic interests. To help 

better understand the urban forest resource and its numerous values, the USDA Forest 

Service has initiated a pilot program to sample urban forests and street tree populations 

across various states. Pilot tests of monitoring the total tree population in urban areas 

have been or are being conducted in Indiana, Wisconsin, and New Jersey. Pilot tests 

of monitoring state-wide street tree populations have been conducted in Maryland, 

Wisconsin, and Massachusetts. Results from the pilot studies include information on 

urban forest population size and composition, health, potential risk from insects and 

disease, and various forest functions (for example, carbon storage, air pollution removal, 

building energy conservation) and values. Results from the pilot study in Indiana reveal 

that there are approximately 92.7 million urban trees ($55.7 billion structural value) and 

that these trees removed about 6,600 metric tons of air pollution in 2000 ($53.4 million 

value) and store about 8.4 million metric tons of carbon ($170.2 million value).These 

base values provide insight into urban forest structure, functions, and tree health to aid 

in urban forest planning and management. Through long-term monitoring of these plots, 

critical information can be obtained to assess how this resource is changing.
182 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

preserving the health of community forests should be an 

integral part of urban and community forest programs, 

and more than 90 percent identified long-term tree care 

and maintenance programs as critical to preserving the 

health and sustainability of urban forests in the Northeast 

(Pokorny 1998).

Although urban forests are a significant resource affecting the vast majority of the population, little is known 

about the nation’s urban forests, how this resource is 

changing, or the factors that might lead to changes in 

urban forest structure and health. By knowing how the 

urban forest is changing, better policies can be developed 

to protect, sustain, and/or enhance urban forest health 

and benefits for future generations. In an attempt to learn 

more about this resource and to aid in its management 

and planning, various pilot studies were developed to 

test the application of a National Urban Forest Health 

Monitoring (UFHM) Program. This program is being 

designed to acquire information about the urban forest 

while concurrently establishing a nationwide system of 

urban forest pest detection and forest health monitoring 

(Nowak and others 2001). The program is a cooperative effort involving the United States Department of 

Agriculture’s (USDA) Forest Service’s Forest Health 

Monitoring Program, Urban and Community Forestry, 

Forest Inventory and Analysis, Northeastern Research 

Station, and state agencies.

As part of this program, two separate field sampling 

protocols were developed. One protocol is designed to 

assess the entire urban forest resource (known as Urban 

Forest Inventory); the second focuses specifically on the 

street tree resource (known as Statewide Urban Street 

Tree Monitoring). The purpose of this paper is to review 

the status of the UFHM program and provide results from 

the first Urban Forest Inventory pilot study in Indiana 

and the Statewide Urban Street Tree Monitoring pilots 

in Maryland and Massachusetts.

Urban Forest Inventory

Urban Forest Inventory seeks to extend the Forest 

Inventory and Analysis (FIA) sampling grid that is used 

to collect information about forests nationwide. FIA 

personnel are responsible for providing periodic assessments of the nation’s forest resources and conducting 

statewide inventories. Currently data are only collected 

on “forested” plots, which are defined as areas that are 

at least 1 acre in size, at least 120 feet in width, at least 

10 percent stocked, and the intended use is forest (in 

other words, not agriculture, urban, etc.). Thus, field 

data are not collected on “nonforest” plots (for example, 

urban areas), though many trees may be present on the 

plot. As most urban areas are classified as “nonforest,” 

data on urban vegetation are not collected as part of 

this national forest inventory program. The urban forest 

inventory phase of the UFHM Program is designed to 

collect information on the FIA plots in urban areas and 

fill this critical “data gap.”

Plots in urban areas are sampled using the FIA sampling grid (one plot every 6,000 acres). Boundaries of 

urban areas are based upon data from the U.S. Census 

Bureau and overlaid with the FIA grid. Plots falling 

within the urban boundaries that are classified as “nonforest” are included in the UFHM inventory. The plots 

are sampled during the growing season to collect an 

extended suite of ecological data including a full vegetation inventory and evaluation of tree damage and crown 

conditions, plus additional variables that were needed 

for conducting analyses using the Urban Forest Effects 

(UFORE) model (for example, percent crown missing, 

distance from building) (Nowak and Crane 2000). For 

the existing FIA forest plots in urban areas, data collected 

by FIA crews were used for analysis and combined with 

the new urban FHM plots. Recent research has shown 

that the cost of measuring non-forest plots is about 1/3 

the cost of a forested FIA plot (Riemann 2003).

Pilot implementation of the inventory took place in 

Indiana in 2001 and 2002. The pilot, conducted by the 

Indiana Department of Natural Resources, was designed 

to extend the on-going FIA statewide inventory into urban 

areas. This extension resulted in 32 sample locations 

within urban boundaries (six of these sample locations 

met the FIA definition of “forested” and were not included in the urban pilot as data were already collected 

at these locations as part of the national FIA program). As 

the Indiana inventory was designed to be collected over 

a five-year period, only 1/5 of the total number of urban 

sample locations were collected the first year.

A second pilot took place in Wisconsin in 2002 and 

was conducted through the Wisconsin Department of 

Natural Resources. Using Census-defined urban areas, 

119 urban plots were sampled (plus an additional 28 plots 

from FIA “forest” plots). All urban plots in Wisconsin 

were established and measured the first year. After the 

first year of complete data collection, the inventory was 

designed to monitor 1/5 of the plots every year so that 

all plots are updated every five years. A third inventory 

pilot was initiated in New Jersey in 2003.

Urban forest inventory plots conform to all standards 

of Forest Inventory and Analysis and the National Forest 

Health Monitoring programs. They consist of four 24-

foot fixed-radius sub-plots spaced 120 feet apart. This 

particular plot layout, though useful in forested situations, has proven difficult within the urban setting. The 

distance between sub-plots often results in numerous 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 183

property owner contacts to establish a plot. In Wisconsin, 

there was an average of five property owner contacts per 

plot, with a record 12 property owner contacts for one 

plot. Training of field crews included extensive manual 

review and field demonstrations of plot layout and tree 

measurements.

The FIA National Core Field Guide was modified 

to include urban data: urban land-use codes, plantable 

space, sub-plot tree cover, and ground cover and shrub 

information. An extended tree species code list has been 

incorporated. All trees one inch in diameter and larger 

are measured. This Urban Forest Field Guide is located 

at http://www.fs.fed.us/ne/syracuse/Tools/tools.htm.

Indiana Urban Forest Inventory

Within urban areas of Indiana there are an estimated 

92.7 million trees (standard error (SE) =32.8 million). Of 

these trees, approximately 49.1 million (SE=26.8 million) 

are found in forests in urban areas and the remaining 43.6 

million (SE=19.1 million) in other urban land uses (for 

example, residential, vacant, commercial – industrial). 

The most common tree species overall were sassafras 

(15.1 percent), silver maple (14.6 percent), and eastern 

cottonwood (10.9 percent). In forest areas, sassafras (28.6 

percent), northern red oak (15.8 percent), and white oak 

(11.0 percent) dominated; on other urban lands, silver 

maple (24.5 percent), eastern cottonwood (18.2 percent), 

and Siberian elm (9.5 percent) were the most common. 

Overall tree cover in the urban forest is estimated at 20 

percent. Most of the trees in the total urban forest are 

small with diameters less than 3 inches (fig. 1).

The species that dominates in terms of basal area 

(which is related to tree size and functional value) is 

silver maple. Trees that are relatively small (that is, 

percent basal area much less than percent of total population) in this population are sassafras, eastern cottonwood, 

American basswood, and boxelder (fig. 2). Species that 

are not native to the state comprise about 7 to 14 percent 

of the urban forest stands, and about 18 to 20 percent of 

the remaining urban lands.

While trees cover approximately 20 percent of 

Indiana’s urban area, shrubs cover about 8 percent. Other 

cover types include herbaceous cover (for example, grass, 

gardens) (46 percent), impervious surfaces, including 

buildings (28 percent), duff, mulch and bare soil (24 

percent), and water (2 percent). Ground cover in forested 

stands is dominated by duff/mulch, while the other urban 

lands are dominated by herbaceous ground cover.

Urban forests have a structural value based on the tree 

resource itself (for example, the cost having to replace the 

tree with a similar tree), and annually produce functional 

values (either positive or negative) based on the functions 

the tree performs. The structural or compensatory value 

(Nowak and others 2002) of Indiana’s urban forest is 

approximately $56 billion dollars.

Urban trees in Indiana removed an estimated 6,600 

metric tons of pollution per year, with an associated 

value of about $35.4 million dollars (based on estimated 

national median external costs associated with air pollution). Pollution removal was greatest for ozone (O3), 

followed by particulate matter less than 10 microns 

(PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) 

and carbon monoxide (CO) (fig. 3).

Urban trees in Indiana are estimated to store 8.4 million metric tons of carbon ($170.2 million value). Of all 

the species sampled, silver maples store the most carbon 

(approximately 32 percent of carbon stored). Urban trees 

are also estimated to sequester about 

280,000 metric tons of carbon annually 

($5.7 million/year).

Urban trees in Indiana are estimated 

to save homeowners $14.7 million 

annually by reducing MWh of energy 

consumed, but increase costs by $20.8 

million annually due to increased 

MBtu usage to heat buildings in winter 

due to tree shade from branches. The 

net effect of the current structure is an 

annual cost of $6.1 million dollars. 

Even though costs go up, Indiana’s 

urban forest helps to reduce about 

23,600 metric tons of carbon emissions from power plants due to energy 

conservation from trees. This disparity 

is due to the difference between cost 

and carbon production involving the Fig. 1. Tree diameter distribution of Indiana’s urban forest.
184 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

winter and summer season energy use. As tree location 

around buildings and tree size are key determinants of 

energy effects, the small sample size compounded with 

relatively few trees in energy effect positions, means the 

results of this analysis are highly uncertain.

Exotic pests can also have a significant influence on 

Indiana’s urban forest. The Asian long-horned beetle 

(ALB) is an insect that bores into and kills a wide range 

of hardwood species (USDA Forest Service 2004a). The 

risk of ALB to Indiana’s urban forest is a loss of $30.3 

billion dollars in structural value (57.8 percent of the 

population). The gypsy moth is a defoliator that feeds on 

a wide variety of tree species and can cause widespread 

defoliation and tree death if outbreak conditions last 

several years (USDA Forest Service 2004b). The risk of 

this pest is a loss of $9.0 billion dollars in structural value 

(22.7 percent of the population) in Indiana. The risk of 

the emerald ash borer, an insect that has killed thousands 

of ash trees in Michigan and Ohio (USDA Forest Service 

2004c), is a structural value loss of $4.5 billion dollars 

(2.3 percent of the population) in Indiana.

The overall pilot test was based on 32 plots, which 

is a relatively small sample size. Increased sample size 

with future sampling will lead to increased confidence 

in the analyses.

Statewide Urban Street Tree 

Monitoring

Statewide Urban Street Tree Monitoring seeks to 

implement a statewide street tree assessment using plots 

Fig. 2. Percent of population and percent basal area of 12 most 

common tree species in Indiana’s urban forest.

established within the public rightof-way in urban areas. Though street 

trees represent only a small portion 

of the urban forest (approximately 5 

to 10 percent), they are the trees that 

municipal foresters are responsible for 

and are often the most visible component of the urban forest. A street tree 

monitoring system provides information about the nature and condition of 

the street tree population and can be 

used for detection of new or exotic 

insect or pathogen problems. Like 

urban forest inventory plots, the street 

tree plots are to be continually updated 

to provide information on change in 

street tree populations.

Statewide street tree monitoring is 

based upon urban areas as defined U.S. Census Bureau 

boundaries. Sample locations are randomly located in 

urban areas in the right-of-way along public roads. The 

statewide sample consists of 300 plots. In year one, all 

300 plots are installed, and this becomes the baseline 

sample. In subsequent years, a sub-sample of plots is 

revisited to allow for assessments of change.

A state may choose to intensify the baseline sample. 

Baseline intensification was done in Wisconsin in 

2002, with 900 plots installed through the efforts of 

the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources. The 

Massachusetts Division of Forests and Parks (2002) 

and Maryland Department of Agriculture (2001), each 

installed 300 baseline plots. In 2002, Maryland initiated 

the first revisit. Plots were revisited using a rotating panel 

design to get an estimate of year-to-year change in condition. A panel consists of one-fifth of the 300 baseline 

plots (60) along with a re-measurement of one-third of 

the previous year’s plots (20 overlap plots) for a total of 

80 plots per year.

Each plot consists of four sub-plots, two on each side 

of the roadway. Plots were installed within the public 

right-of-way so property owner contacts were not an issue. Each sub-plot is 181.5 feet in length and 10 feet in 

width (area equals the area of an urban forest inventory 

sub-plot). Instructions were provided for cul-de-sacs, 

dead-end roadways, and roadways with median strips. 

While not permanently set with monument markers, 

plot locations are identified by distance and azimuth 

to landmarks. Divided highways, private communities, 

interstate access ramps, and military installations were 

excluded from the sample location selection. Plot locations were provided to the State along with replacement 

plot locations in case the original plots could not be 

accessed (for example, plots with dangerous access or 

located in private or gated communities).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 185

A street tree data collection manual has been developed 

and includes information on plot location guidelines, plot 

establishment procedures, and data collection. All trees 

1 inch in diameter and larger are tallied. Data includes 

tree diameter and height, crown condition, and damage. Ground cover types on the plot are also estimated. 

Sidewalk conflicts and utilities information are recorded. 

Training was conducted for all field crews. Training 

included a review of the field manual and in-field plot 

establishment procedures.

Street Tree Monitoring in Maryland and 

Massachusetts

There are an estimated 643,958 trees along Maryland’s 

14,139 miles of urban roadway (approximately 46 

trees/mile). In Massachusetts, the 20,384 miles of urban 

roads are lined with an estimated 1,184,776 trees (58 

trees/mile).

In Maryland, the street tree population contained 67 

different species, none comprising more than 13 percent 

of the total population (table 1). Species diversity at the 

genus level showed 32 different genera, with over 70 

percent of the trees falling into only five genera (Acer, 

Pyrus, Quercus, Prunus, and Platanus).

In Massachusetts, Norway maple clearly dominates 

the population, with more than 34 percent of all 66 species encountered (table 2). Massachusetts street trees are 

represented by 29 different genera, with over 50 percent 

Fig. 3. Estimated pollution removal (2000) by Indiana’s urban 

forest. Removal value estimated using median externality 

values in United States for each pollutant: nitrogen dioxide 

(NO2) = $6,750 t-1, particulate matter < 10 microns (PM10) = 

$4,500 t-1, sulfur dioxide (SO2) = $1,650 t-1, carbon dioxide 

(CO) = $950 t-1 (Murray et al.1994). Externality values for 

O3 were set equal to those for NO2.

of all trees falling into only two: Acer and 

Quercus.

Overall, the street population in both 

states is dominated by maples with nearly 

50 percent of the trees in Massachusetts and 

40 percent of the trees in Maryland being 

Norway, Sugar, Red, Silver, or other maple 

species. This distribution has implications 

for insect or disease infestations that could 

cause significant losses in street tree populations. An example is the recently introduced 

Asian long-horned beetle, which is known to 

attack and kill at least six species of maple. 

Other potentially significant pests are the 

gypsy moth, which could have a significant 

impact on oaks; Emerald ash borer, which 

could kill many ash trees, and Dutch elm disease, which 

has been killing elm trees.

Available planting space was determined by factoring 

an accepted planting space between trees (50 feet), knowing what proportion of the roadways do not currently have 

street trees, and taking into consideration trees adjacent 

Table 1. Ten most frequent species found on Maryland’s urban 

roadways

Mean DBH

Species Percent of total (inches)

Callery pear 13 9

Red maple 11 13

Maple spp. 10 10

Norway maple 6 11

Silver maple 5 13

Cherry Plum 3 6

Oak spp. 3 16

Crabapple 3 10

Honey locust 3 12

Sweetgum 2 8

Table 2. Ten most frequent species found on Massachusetts’ 

urban roadways

Mean DBH

Species Percent of total (inches)

Norway maple 34 15

Red maple 9 12

Northern red oak 8 16

Callery pear 4 6

Pitch pine 4 8

White ash 3 19

Black oak 3 9

White oak 3 15

Sugar maple 3 18

Silver maple 3 25
186 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to the public right of way whose crowns overlap the 

right of way and essentially function as street trees. In 

Maryland, there are an estimated 23 plantable spaces/mile 

of urban roadway, and 20 spaces/mile in Massachusetts. 

In Maryland, the planting potential spaces would almost 

double the number of street trees, while in Massachusetts, 

planting available spaces would increase the street tree 

total by roughly 30 percent. However, this potential planting space estimate is liberal as it includes the amount of 

hardscape including driveways, sidewalks, and other 

impervious surfaces that may limit tree planting.

Tree size distribution as reflected by diameter class 

distribution indicates that street tree populations in 

Maryland are relatively well distributed with the largest 

proportion of trees falling within the five to 15 inch diameter classes. In Massachusetts, larger trees (15 inches 

and greater in diameter) constitute about 50 percent of 

the total, indicating a somewhat older or maturing street 

tree population. While large street trees are aesthetically 

pleasing in terms of how they shade the roadway and 

sidewalk, they often can present additional management 

needs such as pruning or sidewalks and overhead wire 

interference. The relatively mature street tree population 

in Massachusetts had a higher incidence of sidewalk 

conflicts (28 vs. 18 percent) and overhead wire conflicts (25 vs. 18 percent) than the Maryland street tree 

population.

In Maryland, 64 percent of the trees did not have 

damage that met the minimum threshold for recording, 

compared to 71 percent in Massachusetts. In Maryland, 

the most common damage recorded was open wounds 

(16 percent of damage recorded); in Massachusetts it was 

conks and signs of advanced decay (17 percent).

Street tree monitoring results, particularly long-term 

monitoring results that will reveal rates of change, can 

provide useful information to the state to sustain the street 

population and benefits, and minimize liability.

Conclusion

The National Urban Forest Health Monitoring 

Program is developing protocols for national urban 

forest data collection. Pilot studies in various states are 

revealing new information about urban forests at the 

state level, as well as allow for improvements in the 

National Urban Forest Health Monitoring and Urban and 

Community Forestry programs. It is hoped that an Urban 

Forest Health Monitoring Program will be established 

nationwide in the upcoming years after the pilot program 

develops and tests the most appropriate procedures and 

methods of reporting results.

National urban forest monitoring can provide critical 

information for improving urban forest health, management, and benefits across the country. Though the type 

of information provided by UFHM plots can be used 

immediately to aid in management and planning, increased value will be derived after the plots have been 

re-measured. A long-term tree and forest monitoring 

effort in urban areas provides essential information on 

rates of change, as well as a means to detect and monitor 

the spread and range of numerous tree health-related factors (for example, spread and damage associated with the 

introduction of exotic pests). By knowing how the urban 

forest is changing, better policies can be developed to 

protect, sustain, and/or enhance urban forest health and 

benefits for future generations.

Acknowledgments

This pilot program was funded by the USDA Forest 

Service, State and Private Forestry, Forest Health 

Monitoring, and Urban and Community Forestry 

Programs.

References

Glickman, Daniel. 1999. Building cities of green. Speech 

delivered at 1999 National Urban Forest Conference in 

Seattle, Washington.

Murray, F. J.; Marsh, L.; Bradford, P. A. 1994. New York State 

energy plan, vol. II: issue reports. Albany, NY: New York 

State Energy Office.

Nowak, David J.; Crane, Daniel E. 2000. The Urban Forest 

Effects (UFORE) Model: quantifying urban forest structure 

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Tools for Natural Resources Inventories in the 21st Century. 

Proc. of the IUFRO Conference. Gen. Tech. Rep.NC-212. 

St. Paul, MN: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, North Central Research Station. pp. 714-720.

Nowak, David J.; Crane, Daniel E.; Dwyer, John F. 2002. 

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Nowak, David J.; Twardus, Daniel; Scott, Charles T. 2001. 

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survey: results and recommendations. NA-TP-01-98. St. 

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188 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Cold semi-deserts in Patagonia are mostly rangelands 

stocked with about nine M sheep, 0.8 M cattle and 0.8 M 

goats. Most of the 75 M hectares of land are in private 

hands in medium sized estancias that range from 10 to 20 

thousand hectares, under freehold type tenure, although 

smaller production units on public land are also frequent 

in the N of the region. These areas for sheep tending were 

colonized at the end of the XIX century, but even today 

the total population of 1.75 M is scarce (.23 inhabitants/km2

) and concentrated in cities, as only about 0.2 M 

people live in the rural area. A more detailed description 

of the land is presented elsewhere in this Symposium 

Proceedings (Cibils and Oliva 2004).

Rangeland degradation is a concern for farmers and 

governments due to sheep stock decrease from the historical 20 M to less than half (Mendez Casariego 2000). The 

reasons of the crisis include low profitability of the sheep 

products, and mainly the decline in production indexes 

that slowly reduce number of stock in individual estancias and make the systems sensitive to periodic natural 

disasters, such as snowfalls. Dwindling productivity and 

unfavorable macroeconomic policies placed most of the 

producers of medium sized estancias in trouble (Borrelli 

and others 1997). About 10 M ha of the Central Plateaus 

have been abandoned by the year 2000 in Santa Cruz 

province. Farmers of smaller enterprises remained in the 

land and survived with little commercial exchange and 

serious social problems. Big enterprises followed on with 

reduced employment rates and smaller profits.

The objective of this paper was to shortly summarize 

the state of rangeland science in Patagonia. We discuss 

the progress in range forage assessment at “estancia” 

scale with stocking adjustment and adaptive management. From this we will address the need of a monitoring 

system that would measure variables at an appropriate 

temporal and spatial scale. We will present the MARAS 

initiative of a group of range scientists of Patagonia, and 

discuss briefly the main challenges of such a system.

Monitoring Patagonian Rangelands: The MARAS System

Oliva, Gabriel, INTA EEA Santa Cruz. Chacra 45 A 9400 Rio Gallegos Santa Cruz Argentina

Juan Escobar, INTA EEA Chubut, Guillermo Siffredi, INTA EEA Bariloche, Jorge Salomone, 

INTA EEA Chubut, and Gustavo Buono, INTA EEA Chubut

Abstract—Rangelands in Patagonia have been managed with a lack of regulation since 

the introduction of sheep in the late 1880’s. Most rangelands are under private freehold 

in ‘estancias’ and the rest are public and managed by small subsistence-type farmers. 

Natural resources of rangelands are property of the provincial states according to the 

Constitution, but they have no mandate or resources to monitor their condition and 

public support funds have not been tied to proper management. Government agencies 

designed in the 1990’s two range evaluation systems hat have been applied extensively 

but they focus on short time - scale processes to allocate forage resources at the “estancia” scale. The need of a regional monitoring system to evaluate rangeland condition and 

trend is slowly being recognized by governments and farmers, and scientists of Patagonia 

have been discussing a possible unified methodology. The system has been named 

MARAS and is based on Australia’s WARMS (Holm 1998) and other similar methods. 

Lines of point interception and frequency samplers are used to evaluate herbaceous 

vegetation, Camfield lines to evaluate shrubs and patches, surface sampling, and estimates of soil condition. Ground observation points would be set one per cadastral unit 

(about 20.000 ha) and evaluated at five-year intervals. State funding has been obtained 

in 2004 to put in place the first monitors, and to design a web data base that would give 

selective access to the information to federal, provincial, or non-governmental institutions. The main challenge of the system is to assure funding through decades in order to 

assess long time-scale processes. We expect that ecocertification market requirements 

will induce farmers to support it, and that the new trend of public funding included in 

a new sheep promotion law will allow the system to continue.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 189

Range Science

Rangeland science in Argentina is recent, and still has 

to develop fully and build into the government policies 

and rural financial instruments. Although 90 percent of 

Patagonia is occupied by rangelands, their management 

depends entirely on the decisions of the farmers. Some 

early researchers have pointed out the need of a scientific approach of the management of rangelands taking 

into account early degradation indicators (Auer 1951, 

Soriano 1956a, b). However, range science development 

started in the late 70’s, mainly in federal Agricultural 

Research Agencies such as INTA (Anderson 1980) and 

University of Buenos Aires in basic ecological research. 

By the end of the 1980 ́s two different range evaluation 

methods were developed, one based on Pastoral Value 

indexes drawn from step-point quadrat estimations of 

forage species cover (Elissalde and others 2002), and a 

second one know as Santa Cruz method, that evaluates 

forage biomass by direct cuts of shortgrasses and herbs, 

and utilization degree using residue height of key species 

of short grasses (Borrelli and Oliva 2001). Range condition inventories have been used to aid management, and 

interpreted into State and Transition models (Paruelo and 

others 1993). Between 1990 and 1994, with international 

support of GTZ (Germany), INTA and other institutions 

performed a general assessment of the desertification status and reached to the conclusion that about 34 percent of 

the rangelands of Patagonia was in severe or very severe 

degradation status (Goergen 1995, Oliva and others 1995, 

Del Valle 1998, DHV-SWEDFOREST 1998). As a side 

effect of this project, image processing units and GIS 

training and equipment were installed in the area. Public 

funds for range evaluation were allocated to different 

desertification projects between 1989 and 2003, and allowed for training and support for rangeland evaluation 

that has reached to approximately 4.5 M ha by 2004.

Range Evaluation Methods

Range evaluation strategies have focused on providing objective assessment of the forage status at a typical 

estancia scale with reasonable costs. They are the basic 

input for management plans that are paid by the producers and performed by private or semi- private range 

professionals that are included in a provincial registry 

after being trained in special courses. Evaluation usually 

implies about 10 and 15 paddocks with a mean area of 2.5 

thousand ha, and the production of detailed maps using 

satellite imagery. The pastoral value method is usually 

applied fully in an initial assessment, that includes cover 

of all species, but the stocking rates are adjusted furthermore in relation to rainfall (Rimoldi and Buono 2001). 

The SC method involves annual evaluations of shortgrass 

biomass and height to adjust stock allocation, but less 

palatable plants are not included (Borrelli and Oliva 

1999). The main assumption is that undesirable transitions will be avoided if sheep leave approximately half 

of the standing biomass of the main forage species.

The Need for a Monitoring 

System

After 14 years of the first range evaluations, it is clear 

that a monitoring system is needed for three reasons (1) 

The variables recorded in repeated rangeland assessments 

are few and not sensitive enough to avoid transitions, (2) 

the time scale (years) and the spatial scale (estancias) are 

not appropriate to monitor regional processes and (3) the 

private funding of range evaluations implies restrictions 

on data and limits the area of application.

Indicators are Needed

Research sites have demonstrated that cover of the 

dominant species in these rangelands dominated by long 

lived perennials is not a good indicator of the proximity 

of transitions to degraded states. Oliva and others (1998) 

monitored yearly vegetation cover in a stocking rate 

experiment in Moy Aike Chico, Santa Cruz for over a 

decade, and concluded that the rangelands had reached 

stable states under grazing, under high stocking rates 

(0.60 sheep/ha) the cover of the most important species 

and even the main forage items did not change at all or 

actually increased. Vegetation change had nevertheless 

took place under high stocking rates as the most palatable and rare species disappeared, the diversity index 

declined, soil texture changed where fine lime particles 

were lost by erosion (Oliva and others 2000), and N and 

organic matter diminished with long lasting effects (unpublished data). These rangelands also show distinctive 

patterns of mounds associated to tussocks (Oliva 1996) 

or shrubs (Rostagno and others 1991) that act as sinks of 

nutrients and facilitate grass establishment (Soriano and 

Sala 1986, Aguiar and Sala 1999), and their disruption 

may change the function of the grassland. An appropriate set of soil, vegetation, and structural indicators of the 

rangeland seems to be necessary to in order to prevent 

unfavorable transitions.

Time and Spatial Scale

Range evaluations concentrate in annual variations of 

forage quantity that are a clearly perceived by farmers 

and allow adaptive management practices. Long term 

declines in production that could be the result of range 
190 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

degradation are regarded as signs of declining rainfall 

(Oliva and others 2004b), a tendency that is not evident 

in climatic data (Cibils unpublished). Demographic 

models have shown nevertheless that processes such as 

subdivision of tussocks under high stocking rates could 

determine the extinction of the tussock population after 

4 or 5 decades (Oliva 1996). A monitoring system should 

keep track of slow changes that are best evaluated at 

long intervals to allow for cumulative processes to be 

revealed, but these changes will not be easily interpreted 

and recognized by managers.

Funding

The best efforts of range consultants and extensionists have reached about 6 percent of the total area of 

Patagonia. New financial tools tied to range evaluations 

may imply an expansion, but there is a small probability 

that they will reach the vast spaces of land withdrawn 

from sheep production, run by small subsistence type 

producers that may not pay for new practices or farmers 

that are simply not interested in new practices and stick 

to the traditional ways. The monitoring system should 

therefore be based on public funds and the ground points 

selected as a sample of all the rangelands.

The MARAS System

Since 2002, a group of range scientists (Oliva and 

others 2004a) of Patagonia backed by a National Action 

Against Desertification (PAN INTA-GTZ Germany) program has been developing a monitoring system whose 

acronym MARAS (Monitoreo Ambiental Regional de 

zonas Aridas y Semiaridas) relates to regional monitoring 

of arid and semi-arid rangelands. The initial methodology 

has been established in two previous meetings and the 

first monitor was set up in the Rio Mayo INTA experimental field in April 2004. Our system aims to monitor 

ecologic units that range from 0.4 to 11.4 M ha. They 

would be covered by ground monitors at a density of 

one per 20.000 ha, that approximately matches the size 

of cadastral units. The location of the monitors would be 

set in a cadastral GIS layer divided into ecological units, 

and then reassigned in the field in order to avoid edges of 

vegetation communities or the proximity of waterpoints 

or fences. A web data base will validate the entries using a 

single species and indicators list for the entire region and 

connect the points in the GIS layer. Information will be 

selectively accessible to different federal and provincial 

governmental agencies and NGO’s. The data base will 

be developed in order to connect with GIS software of 

different vendors that are used in the region, and will 

hopefully be adopted as a unified system by the different 

provincial departments of agriculture.

The field layout (Fig. 1) matches the one used by 

West Australia’s WARMS method (Holm 1998). It 

consists in a photographic pole that bears the identification of the site. A trapezoid shaped polygon marked 

with permanent poles and delineated with ropes covers 

the area of a digital camera with a 50 mm lens. Three 

50-m transects at the end of the trapezoid allow for the 

Figure 1. Schematic layout of a 

MARAS monitor.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 191

evaluation of vegetation and soil (Table 1). Herbaceous 

and dwarf shrub cover are estimated along one transect 

using either the Dagget Poissonet’s point quadrat method 

with 500 points or a modified Daubenmire with one 

hundred 0.20 m2 quadrats and visual estimation of the 

cover of each species. The second transect serves as a 

Canfield line to estimate the number, size and type of 

patches of vegetation and bare soil, allowing also for the 

estimation of shrub cover, if present. The third transect is 

used to evaluate signs of wind and water erosion on soils, 

and soil surface aggregate stability using the slake test 

(Tongway 1994). A superficial (0-10 cm) soil sample will 

be extracted and analyzed in the laboratory. Evaluations 

will be performed by trained and registered private consultants or by government personnel. The monitors will 

be revisited every five years, and the initial number will 

be carefully assessed in order to assure fewer repeated 

measures instead of a high number of single observations 

based on WARMS experience.

Who will pay for the MARAS and why? Most of 

the land in Patagonia is under private freehold, and although the provincial governments in principle own the 

natural resources of the rangelands, they have no legal 

mandate or resources to monitor them. Public funds for 

crisis relief or support of sheep farms have historically 

been distributed without taking into account the state of 

the land and management, but the trend of allocation of 

funds is slowly changing as the society becomes aware 

of the degradation of rangelands and producers involve 

in certification processes such as organic productions 

that require monitoring. It is foreseeable that some sort 

of ecocertification of sustainable practices will be eventually required to export products of rangelands, so that 

monitoring could be strategic from a commercial point 

of view. In a recently promulgated Sheep law, sustainable 

range management plans based on forage evaluations 

are mandatory to obtain benefits (Poder.Legislativo.

Nacional 2004). Resources allocated to this law are managed yearly by a joint commission of government and 

producers and have been assigned in 2004 to construct 

the data base, train the evaluators and put in place the first 

ground monitors of the MARAS initiative in Santa Cruz 

province. A GEFF funded initiative to aid in monitoring, 

environmental education, and conservation in Patagonia 

Table 1.

Indicator Method

Vegetation

Cover of vascular species (except shrubs) Point quadrat or Daubenmire

Bare ground % Point quadrat or Daubenmire

Desert pavement % Point quadrat or Daubenmire

Litter % Point quadrat or Daubenmire

Standing dead % Point quadrat or Daubenmire

Cover of Lichens and mosses Point quadrat or Daubenmire

Forage cover % Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Shortgrass cover % Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Bunchgrass cover % Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Dwarf shrub cover % Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Srub cover % Interception lines

Non-native species relative cover % Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Invasive species relative cover % Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Shannon Weiner diversity index Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Species richness Synthetic variable from cover estimations

Patch structure

Number of patches Interception lines

Size of patches Interception lines

Soil

Rills (water erosion signs) Visual inspection in soil quadrats

Nebkas (wind accumulation signs) Visual inspection in soil quadrats

Surface crust stability Slake test

Pedestals or plants with uncovered roots Visual inspection in soil quadrats

Total N (%) Kjendhal

Organic C (%)

P (mg/kg) Olsen

pH

Resistance (ohm.cm)

Clay %

Lime %

Sand 
192 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

is also expected to start shortly and may facilitate the 

scaling of this initiative to the whole region. Soft money 

may allow the system to start, but the real challenge 

is to assure that hard money of governmental budgets 

will be available in a long time scale, and to coordinate 

INTA as a federal agency and five provincial agencies 

to work together and interoperate. Progress depends on 

political decisions, but also on the evolution of public 

knowledge of goods and services that are provided by 

rangelands and the concern of producers in relation to 

ecocertification.

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Introduction

Southern forest health can be noticeably affected by 

anthropomorphic stress, including the introduction of 

nonnative plant species. Humans continue to increase 

the rate of spread of alien species as populations soar 

and global travel becomes more commonplace (Pimental 

and others 2001, Mack and others 2000, Stapanian and 

others 1998). Research indicates that nearly 4,000 alien 

plants occur outside of cultivation in the United States 

(Stein and others 1996). While the current lack of available data limits the ability of scientists and economists 

to determine the impacts of introduced plant species on 

the environment and economics (Pimental and others 

2001), these and other alien species cost the United 

States an approximated $97 billion in direct economic 

losses over an 85-year period (Stein and others 1996). 

In addition to the economic costs associated with the 

control of nonnative plant species, environmental costs 

are high. Invasive species have the ability to transform 

entire ecosystems through modifications of soil, water, 

and light resources (Gordon 1998, Stapanian and others 

1998, Stein and others 1996). In addition, some plant species prevent forest regeneration through the formation of 

thick rhizomatous mats in the forest soil (Jose and others 

2002). In some cases, regeneration is further prohibited 

through an increase in the aboveground biomass available as fuel. For example, forest fires occurring in pine 

forests of the Southeast containing the alien invasive 

cogongrass (Imperata cylindrica) burned at higher temperatures than forests containing only native species, 

damaging seedlings and preventing regeneration (Jose 

and others 2002).

Studies suggest that the Southeast is an area of primary concern with regards to the spread of alien plant 

species (Miller 2003, Stapanian and others 1998). In 

1998, data collected by Stapanian and others showed 

that Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica) occurred 

over 2 million acres in the Southeast, invading forests 

and displacing native species. Similarly, Craver (1982) 

noted that nonnative honeysuckles, including Japanese 

honeysuckle, were found on commercial forestland in 

Nonnative Invasive Plants in South Carolina: 

Combining Phase-2 with Phase-3 Vegetation Structure 

and Diversity Pilot Data to Enhance our Understanding of 

Forest Health Issues

Sonja N. Oswalt, Forest Resource Analyst, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 

Knoxville, TN

Abstract—Studies suggest that the Southeast is an area of primary concern with regards 

to the spread of alien plant species (Miller 2003, Stapanian and others 1998). Data collected by Stapanian and others in 1998 showed that Japanese honeysuckle (Lonicera 

japonica) occurred over 2 million acres in the Southeast, invading forests and displacing native species. Among the most important mechanisms for the early detection and 

prevention of the spread of nonnative species is monitoring on large spatial scales for 

the presence of alien species, and for the presence of vulnerable sites (in other words, 

sites affected by certain disturbance types) (Jose and others 2002). In the Southeast, 

a primary research priority is the need for better assessments of on-going biological 

invasion, for public and scientific use (Mack and others 2000). As one method for 

addressing this need, the Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and Analysis program incorporates assessments of the presence of nonnative species into its Phase-2 forest inventory. 

Additionally, pilot studies are currently underway for a new forest health variable that 

would describe native and alien vascular plant diversity and extent. This paper describes 

results gleaned from 2002 to 2004 Phase-2 data combined with 2002 Phase-3 vegetation structure and diversity pilot study data in South Carolina, USA. While small sample 

sizes limit the reliability of statistical tests for the pilot study, the results from the 2002 

pilot illustrate potential uses for the new Phase-3 variable in monitoring and detecting 

the spread and impact of nonnative species in Southern forests.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 195

every county in South Carolina. In addition, current studies regarding the problematic regeneration of northern 

red oak on high-quality sites suggest that the invasive 

Nepalese browntop (Microstegium vimineum) may behave like cogongrass in preventing the establishment 

and development of seedlings (Oswalt and others 2004). 

Forest fragmentation due to agriculture, urban development, road construction, and other similar disturbances 

may increase the ability of alien species to invade forest 

ecosystems by increasing light availability and exposing 

bare mineral soil (Parendes and Jones 2000, Brothers 

and Spingarn 1992). Additionally, while alien species 

generally exhibit low levels of growth and distribution 

in the forest understory, removal of the forest canopy due 

to timber harvesting activities, development, or natural 

mortality often results in “explosions” of growth (Oswalt 

and others 2004, Barden 1987).

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) 

Forest Service (FS) has identified invasive species as 

one of the top four threats to forests in the United States 

in the twenty-first century. Among the most important 

mechanisms for the early detection and prevention of the 

spread of nonnative species is monitoring on large spatial 

scales for the presence of alien species, and for the presence of vulnerable sites (in other words, sites affected 

by certain disturbance types) (Jose and others 2002). In 

the Southeast, a primary research priority is the need for 

better assessments of ongoing biological invasion, for 

public and scientific use (Mack and others 2000).

As one method for addressing this need, the USDA 

FS Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program incorporates rapid assessments of the presence of nonnative 

species into its Phase-2 (P2) forest inventory. In conjunction with presence/absence of alien species, field 

crews also estimate the distance of each plot center to 

agriculture, urban development, and roads. Additional 

studies are currently underway for a new Phase-3 variable 

that describes native and alien vascular plant diversity 

and extent.

The goals of this study were to: 1) quantify the occurrence of nonnative invasive species across the state of 

South Carolina using FIA data; 2) determine differences 

in nonnative species occurrence between physiographic 

and ecological regions; 3) examine impacts of plot distance from agriculture, urban development, and roadways 

on presence/absence and number of nonnative species 

present on plots; and 4) compare results gained from 

FIA P2 plots with results collected from a pilot study 

conducted during the same time period to evaluate the 

effectiveness of both methods in documenting nonnative 

invasive species.

Methods

The USDA Forest Service FIA program collects data 

using a three-phase process. During Phase-1 (P1), aerial 

photographs are interpreted; broad classifications of 

forest versus nonforest areas are determined; and plot 

locations are identified. P2 consists of field data collection concerning tree variables on all plots, at the rate 

of 20 percent of plots in a given State per year (USDA 

Forest Service 2003). In this manner, data collection for 

an entire State is completed in a five-year cycle, though 

some data analysis may begin after a minimum of one 

year of collection (Stapanian and others 1998). The 

plots are arranged on an unbiased, systematic sampling 

grid across the United States. The grid is composed of 

hexagons covering approximately 2,428 ha (6,000 acres) 

each, with one sample plot located within each hexagon 

(USDA Forest Service 2003). Individual plots consist 

of four subplots with a radius of 7.3 m (24 feet). Field 

crews estimate the distance of each plot from agriculture, 

urban development, and improved roads based on aerial 

photos of each plot location (USDA Forest Service 2003). 

During the final phase (P3) of the inventory process, forest health monitoring data related to soil, down woody 

materials, crown health, and other variables of interest 

are collected on a subset (one-sixteenth) of the P2 plots. 

Detailed descriptions of both P2 and P3 data collection 

programs, copies of field guides detailing data collection 

methodology, and detailed definitions of FIA terminology 

may be found by accessing the USDA Forest Service FIA 

Internet site at http://fia.fs.fed.us/ and following links to 

FIA program information.

Nonnative invasive species information was collected 

on P2 plots beginning in February 2002 and extending 

through July 2004. Data collection consisted of noting 

the four most prevalent nonnative species present on a 

subplot, and estimating their abundances in approximated 

cover classes (USDA Forest Service 2003). Species were 

selected from a predetermined list of nonnative plants 

considered to be problematic in the Southeast (table 1) 

(Miller 2003). This data collection method provides 

some information regarding the most abundant nonnative species present on a given sample plot, but does not 

allow the data collector to record in excess of the four 

most abundant species. A total of 1,589 P2 plots were 

sampled at the time analysis began. Plots were included 

for analysis only if all subplots were fully forested (in 

other words, no nonforest conditions were included in 

the analysis), for a total of 752 analyzed plots (Miles 

and others 2001).
196 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Because of the limited extent of nonnative species 

data collected on P2 plots, additional information is 

included from a pilot study conducted from May 2002 

to September 2002. The P3 vegetation structure and 

diversity pilot study required the scientist to record the 

presence of all vascular plants occurring on a subplot, 

regardless of life form or U.S. nativity. Vegetative 

structure and diversity data collected for all vascular 

plants occurring within the four sampled subplots were 

combined to produce plot-level summaries. All vascular 

plants occurring on the subplots were identified to the 

most specific level possible. Unidentified plants were 

collected “off plot” and were submitted to local herbaria 

for identification (USDA Forest Service 2003). The 

PLANTS database nomenclature was used for all plants 

recorded (USDA-NRCS 2004). The PLANTS database 

designation of “invasive and noxious” species was also 

used to determine whether a plant was native or nonnative 

for analysis purposes (USDA-NRCS 2004).

The pilot study provided a total of 31 forested plots 

for P3 analysis. Because of logistical problems during 

data collection, data were not always complete at the plot 

level. The resulting heterogeneity of variance violates 

statistical assumptions, making the plot level data invalid 

for many statistical tests. In those instances, analysis was 

conducted at the subplot level, and results are labeled 

as such. Because of small sample sizes, and the lack of 

complete datasets for each plot, the reliability of statistical 

tests is limited and results should be viewed with caution. 

This report consists of separate analyses for the P2 and P3 

datasets (in other words, data are not combined).

Statistical analyses of edited P2 data were conducted 

at the plot level statewide and by three FIA designated 

physiographic regions: the Piedmont, Southern Coastal 

Plain, and Northern Coastal Plain (fig. 1). Data were 

also analyzed by three ecological regions as defined 

by Keys and others (1995): the Southern Appalachian 

Piedmont, Coastal Plains and Flatwoods, and Atlantic 

Coastal Flatwoods. ArcMap 8.1 (ESRI 2001) was used 

to assign each county and its complement of plots to 

an ecological region (fig. 1). Data were consolidated 

using Microsoft database tools, and analyzed using a 

combination of SAS version 8.02 (SAS Institute 2001), 

NCSS (Hintze 2001), and Microsoft Excel statistical 

software. Chi-square tests for independence were used 

to determine whether the proportion of plots containing 

nonnative species differed across physiographic regions 

or ecological regions. Fisher’s Exact Test was used to 

further explain any detected differences between regions. 

Logistic regression with backward variable selection was 

then used to select and evaluate impacts of plot distance 

from agriculture, urban development, and roadways 

on presence/absence and number of nonnative species 

present on plots.

Analyses of P3 data were conducted on data edited and compiled using a combination of SAS, NCSS, 

PC-ORD (McCune and Mefford 1999), and Microsoft 

Excel statistical software. Descriptive statistics are 

presented for P3 data, as well as results from a oneway analysis of variance using generalized least-square 

means.

Figure 1. USDA Forest Service FIA physiographic regions (A) 

and ecological regions (B) as defined by Keys and others 

(1995).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 197

Results

P2 Results

A total of 752 P2 forested plots were measured in 46 

South Carolina counties in 2002 to 2004 for the presence 

of nonnative invasive plant species. Of those plots, 40 

percent (n=300) contained at least one alien species; 15 

percent (n=111) contained at least two; 4 percent (n=27) 

contained at least three; and less than 1 percent (n=4) 

contained four or more. A total of 21 nonnative species 

were detected using the FIA P2 sampling protocol (table 

1). The most abundant nonnative invasive species identified was Japanese honeysuckle, occurring in 81 percent of 

all plots containing invasive plant species, and 32 percent 

(n=244) of the total number of forested plots sampled 

(table 1). These results are similar to Stapanian and others (1998) who found that Japanese honeysuckle is a 

leading problem in the Southeastern United States, followed closely by Chinese privet (Ligustrum sinense).

Physiographic units of South Carolina differed in the 

proportion of plots containing exotic species (χ2=175.80, 

p=≤0.001). The Piedmont region had a significantly 

larger proportion of plots containing at least one 

nonnative species compared to both the Northern and 

Southern Coastal Plains (p=≤0.001). In contrast, the 

proportion of plots containing at least one nonnative species was similar for the Northern and Southern Coastal 

Plains units (χ2=1.06, p=0.30) (table 2).

Similarly, the ecological regions defined by Keys and 

others (1995) differed in the proportion of plots containing exotic species (χ2

=185.52, p=≤0.001). The Southern 

Appalachian Piedmont contains a higher proportion of 

plots with at least one nonnative species than either 

the Coastal Plains and Flatwoods region (χ2=82.59, 

p=≤0.001) or the Atlantic Coastal Flatwoods region 

Table 1. Scientific names, common names and frequencies (percent of all forested plots occupied by a 

given species) of species evaluated using the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis 

Phase-2 guidelines. Data are for South Carolina, 2002 through 2004. Species are in alphabetical 

order by scientific nomenclature.

Frequency

Species Common name percent

Ailanthus altissima (P.Mill.) Swingle* tree of heaven 0.27

Albizia julibrissin Durazz.* mimosa 0.53

Alliaria petiolata (Bieb.) Cavara & Grande garlic mustard 0.00

Arundo donax L. giant reed 0.00

Celastrus orbiculatus Thunb. Oriental bittersweet 0.00

Dioscorea spp. climbing yams 0.00

Elaeagnus angustifolia L. Russian olive 0.00

Elaeagnus pungens Thunb.* silverthorn 0.13

Elaeagnus umbellata Thunb.* autumn olive 0.66

Euonymous alata (Thunb.) Sieb.* winged burning bush 0.13

Euonymous fortunei (Tursz.) Hand.-Maz. winter creeper 0.00

Hedera helix (L.) English ivy 0.00

Imperata cylindrica (L.) Beauv. congongrass 0.00

Lespedeza bicolor Turcz.* shrubby lespedeza 2.39

Lespedeza cuneata (Dum.-Cours.) G.Don* Chinese lespedeza 3.59

Ligustrum japonicum Thunb.* Japanese privet 2.79

Ligustrum sinense Lour.* Chinese privet 8.51

Lolium arundinaceum (Schreb.)* tall fescue 1.20

Lonicera japonica Thunb.* Japanese honeysuckle 32.44

Lonicera spp.* bush honeysuckle 0.13

Lygodium japonicum (Thunb. ex Murr.) Sw. Japanese climbing fern 0.00

Melia azedarach L.* chinaberry 0.80

Microstegium vimineum (Trin.) A.Camus* Nepalese browntop 1.06

Miscanthus sinensis Anderss. Chinese silvergrass 0.00

Nandina domestica Thunb. nandina 0.00

Paulownia tomentosa (Thunb.)* royal paulownia 0.13

Phyllostachys aurea (Carr. Ex A.& C.) Riviere* bamboo 0.13

Pueraria montana var. lobata (Lour.) Merr.* kudzu 0.66

Rosa multiflora Thunb. ex Murr.* multiflora rose 0.80

Solanum viarum Dunal* tropical soda-apple 0.13

Triadica sebifera (L.) Small* tallowtree 1.06

Vinca spp. periwinkle 0.00

Wisteria sinensis (Sims) DC.* nonnative wisteria 1.33

* Species detected on 752 forested plots in South Carolina during 2002-2004 sample seasons using Phase-2 

methodology.
198 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

(χ2=169.16, p<0.001) (table 2). The Coastal Plains and 

Flatwoods region also differed from the Atlantic Coastal 

Plain in the proportion of plots containing at least one 

exotic species (χ2=14.50, p=0.001). The proportion of 

plots containing an exotic species was slightly higher 

for the Coastal Plains and Flatwoods region than for the 

Atlantic Coastal Plain (table 2).

Logistic regression with backward variable selection 

identified the distance of a plot from improved roads, 

urban development, and agricultural land as significant 

in explaining the presence of nonnative species on a 

plot (p<0.001). However, predictability was very low 

(r2=0.05) and plots were classified correctly only 71 

percent of the time. Adding physiographic unit (p<0.001) 

to the model increased the r-square value to 0.22 with 

the percent of plots classified correctly 76 percent of 

the time. The low r-square values (and thus low predictability) could be due to sample size, estimation errors, 

or the absence of another variable that may be of more 

use for predictability measures.

P3 Results

In 2002, a total of 31 plots were measured, but few 

(n=4) plots provided data from measurements taken at 

all four subplots. A total of 44 percent (n=71) of the 

available subplots were measured. There were 102 plant 

families represented in the dataset, excluding unknowns 

(specimens not identified due to immaturity, lack of 

flowering parts, or other reasons). A total of 537 unique 

records representing 2,391 individuals were collected. 

Of these, muscadine grape (Vitis rotundifolia) was the 

most abundant, occurring in 78 percent of subplots measured, and 77 percent (n=24) of plots. Red maple (Acer 

rubrum) followed closely in abundance, occurring in 

67 percent (n=48) of subplots and 71 percent (n=22) of 

plots (table 3).

There were no differences in the mean number of all 

(native and nonnative) species per plot between the three 

physiographic regions of South Carolina (p=0.24). There 

were also no differences at the subplot level (table 4). 

However, the mean number of vascular plant species per 

subplot did differ between ecological sections (p=0.09) 

as defined by Keys and others (1995), with the largest 

number of species occurring in the Southern Appalachian 

Piedmont region (μ=36.94 +/- 2.34), followed by the 

Coastal Plains and Flatwoods region (μ=33.0 +/- 2.55), 

and the Atlantic Coastal Flatwoods region (μ=27.7 +/- 

3.48).

Nonnative species accounted for 6 percent (n=27) of 

all identified species, and 50 percent (n=14) of the alien 

species are also invasive. Although only 6 percent of 

all species recorded were nonnative, alien plant species 

occurred in 80 percent (n=25) of measured plots. In 

contrast, 73 percent (n=394) of native species occurred 

in less than 10 percent (n=3) of all plots measured, and 

48 percent (n=258) occurred in only one measured plot. 

As in the P2 data, Japanese honeysuckle was the most 

abundant nonnative invasive, occurring in 28 percent 

(n=20) of the 71 subplots and 45 percent (14) of the 31 

plots. Chinese privet followed in abundance, occurring in 

17 percent (n=12) of subplots and 32 percent (n=10) of 

plots (table 5). P3 methods detected 27 nonnative species 

as compared to the 24 species detected by P2 methods. 

Nine of the species detected by P2 were also detected by 

P3, while 18 species were unique to P3. Small sample 

sizes prevent further analysis of the dataset.

Discussion and Conclusion

The results of this analysis suggest that nonnative 

invasive species present a substantial threat to forest resources in South Carolina. This is supported by the more 

detailed P3 data, which indicate that although nonnative 

species comprise only a small percentage of all vascular 

plants found throughout the State, those few plants are 

alarmingly widespread. Currently, Japanese honeysuckle 

Table 2. Proportion of P2 plots containing at least one nonnative species. Data are presented by physiographic 

region and ecologic region. Physiographic region and ecologic region were evaluated separately.

Sample size Proportion containing nonnatives

Ecological division number percent

Physiographic region

Piedmont 268 71.6 A1

Northern Coastal Plain 272 20.6 B

Southern Coastal Plain 212 24.5 B

Ecologic region

Southern Appalachian Piedmont 268 71.6 A

Coastal Plains and Flatwoods 218 30.3 B

Atlantic Coastal Flatwoods 266 15.8 C

1 Results of Fisher’s Exact Test. Means followed by the same letter are not significantly different at the alpha 0.05 level.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 199

and Chinese privet appear to present the largest immediate threat to forest health. Japanese honeysuckle was 

often planted by wildlife managers and farmers as forage during late fall and winter (Stransky 1984, Craver 

1982), and both plants are still offered as ornamental 

species in lawn and garden stores in the Southeast (S.N. 

Oswalt personal observation). These uses have resulted 

in their widespread propagation throughout the southern 

United States. Studies of the physiology of Japanese 

honeysuckle have revealed that the ability of the plant 

to remain semi-evergreen and photosynthetically active 

in the warm climate of the Southern states may result in 

a competitive advantage over native deciduous components of the vegetation community (Schierenbeck and 

others 1994). Similarly, the semi-evergreen to evergreen 

growth of Chinese privet may afford it an advantage over 

native deciduous shrubs and forbs. The ability of these 

species to dominate the understory of disturbed stands, 

potentially impacting the regeneration of economically 

important species makes this a cause for immediate 

concern (Mooney and Cleland 2001). Additionally, the 

potential decline in plant species richness that accompanies the invasion of exotic species could be detrimental 

to wildlife populations in South Carolina forests.

Interestingly, one species that has received great 

attention in the southern United States because of its 

widespread visibility along forest edges and gullies, 

Kudzu (Pueraria montana), was detected in less than 

one percent of the forested plots sampled. Kudzu has 

been described as “the vine that ate the South” in popular 

literature, owing to its ability to grow up to one foot per 

day during the growing season (Bergman and Swearingen 

Table 4. Comparison of mean species per subplot by nativity and physiographic region using 2002 Phase-3

pilot study results. Results from analysis of variance (ANOVA) testing for differences in mean number of 

species by physiographic unit are given for each nativity category.

Nativity (p-value) Physiographic region Mean number of species per subplot (+/- 1 s.e.)

Native (0.23) Piedmont 34.00 (2.12)

Northern Coastal Plain 30.42 (2.32)

Southern Coastal Plain 27.79 (3.16)

Nonnative (0.26) Piedmont 1.29 (0.24)

Northern Coastal Plain 1.08 (0.26)

Southern Coastal Plain 0.57 (0.36)

All species (0.17) Piedmont 36.94 (2.36)

Northern Coastal Plain 31.88 (2.58)

Southern Coastal Plain 29.79 (3.51)

Table 3. Scientific names, common names, and frequencies (percent of all forested subplots 

occupied by a given species) of the twenty most abundant species evaluated using the 

USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis Phase-3 guidelines. Data are for 

South Carolina, 2002. Species are listed in order of abundance.

Frequency

Scientific name Common name percent

Vitis rotundifolia Michx. muscadine 73.24

Acer rubrum L. red maple 67.61

Smilax glauca Walt. cat greenbriar 57.75

Pinus taeda L. loblolly pine 56.34

Prunus serotina Ehrh. pond pine 54.93

Liquidambar styraciflua L. sweetgum 53.52

Diospyros virginiana L. common persimmon 49.30

Gelsemium sempervirens (L.) St. Hil. evening trumpetflower 47.89

Parthenocissus quinquefolia (L.) Planch. virginia creeper 47.89

Quercus alba L. white oak 42.25

Nyssa sylvatica Marsh. black gum 40.85

Quercus laurifolia Michx. laurel oak 40.85

Rubus argutus Link sawtooth blackberry 40.85

Smilax rotundifolia L. roundleaf greenbriar 40.85

Ilex opaca Ait. American holly 36.62

Quercus nigra L. water oak 36.62

Cornus florida L. flowering dogwood 35.21

Quercus falcata Michx. southern red oak 33.80

Toxicodendron radicans (L.) Kuntze poison ivy 33.80

Vaccinium arboreum Marsh. farkleberry 32.39
200 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

1999). However, while Kudzu threatens native diversity 

along forest edges and roadways where high levels of 

light are available, its shade-intolerance prevents it 

from penetrating the forest edge and invading the forest understory. Similar observations of low populations 

of Kudzu as compared to Japanese honeysuckle in east 

Texas have led some researchers to suggest that when 

considering forest health the emphasis previously placed 

on Kudzu should be shifted to the shade tolerant Japanese 

honeysuckle (Vic Rudis, Forester, USDA Forest Service, 

personal communication).

Edge effects associated with agriculture, urban development, and road construction are often considered 

as dispersal pathways when considering the potential of 

an alien species to invade forest ecosystems (Parendes 

and Jones 2000, Brothers and Spingarn 1992). The data 

from this study indicates that the distance of a forested 

plot from agriculture, urban development, or improved 

roads is significant in explaining the presence/absence 

of nonnative species from the site. However, those variables are not useful in predicting whether a plot would 

contain a nonnative species, making them of little value 

for identifying potential “hotspots” of invasion. Brothers 

and Spingarn (1992) suggested that the development of a 

thick wall of vegetation at the forest edge may discourage invasive plants from penetrating into the understory, 

suggesting that other factors may be more useful for 

understanding the spread of shade tolerant nonnative 

species in forested systems. More studies examining 

the multivariate effects of soil type, onsite disturbance, 

previous land use, and other environmental variables are 

necessary to fully understand and predict the potential 

of a nonnative species to invade a given forest. As the 

more detailed P3 vegetation structure and diversity data 

continue to be collected, further examination of these 

variables may provide some insight into how to recognize 

the potential for the invasion of nonnative species into 

forests in the Southeast. With additional P3 sampling, 

more statistically reliable information may be gained with 

regards to the impacts of certain types of disturbance patterns on the establishment and reproduction of vascular 

plant species, including nonnative species, once datasets 

reach a more statistically reliable sample size.

Differences in the proportion of plots containing nonnative species exist between the physiographic units, 

and between the ecological regions of South Carolina. 

Both analyses indicated that the Southern Appalachian 

Piedmont is particularly susceptible to colonization by 

Table 5. Scientific names, common names, and frequencies (percent of all forested plots and subplots occupied by a given species) 

of nonnative species using the USDA Forest Service, Forest Inventory and Analysis Phase-3 guidelines. Data are for South 

Carolina, 2002.

Frequency by subplot Frequency by plot

Scientific name Common name percent	 percent

Ailanthus altissima (P. Mill.) Swingle* tree of heaven 1.41 3.23

Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb.* alligatorweed 2.82 6.45

Blumea viscosa (P.Mill.) Badillo clammy false oxtongue 1.41 3.23

Centella asiatica (L.) Urban spadeleaf 2.82 6.45

Duchesnea indica (Andr.) Focke indian strawberry 1.41 3.23

Eremochloa ophiuroides (Munro) Hack. centipede grass 5.63 6.45

Hypochaeris radicata L. hairy catsear 1.41 3.23

Kummerowia striata (Thunb.) Schindl.* Japanese clover 1.41 3.23

Lespedeza cuneata (Dum.-Cours.) G. Don* Chinese lespedeza 4.23 6.45

Ligustrum sinense Lour.* Chinese privet 16.90 32.26

Lonicera japonica Thunb.* Japanese honeysuckle 28.17 45.16

Melia azedarach L.* chinaberrytree 2.82 3.23

Microstegium vimineum (Trin.) A. Camus* Nepalese browntop 4.23 9.68

Murdannia keisak (Hassk.) Hand.-Maz.* wartremoving herb 7.04 12.90

Paspalum dilatatum Poir. dallisgrass 1.41 3.23

Paspalum notatum Flueggé bahiagrass 2.82 6.45

Picris echioides L. bristly oxtongue 1.41 3.23

Poa annua L. annual bluegrass 2.82 6.45

Rosa multiflora Thunb. ex Murr.* multiflora rose 1.41 3.23

Rumex acetosella L. common sheep sorrel 1.41 3.23

Sambucus nigra L. ssp. canadensis (L.) R. Bolli common elderberry 2.82 6.45

Sonchus oleraceus L. common sowthistle 1.41 3.23

Stellaria media (L.) Vill. common chickweed 1.41 3.23

Triadica sebifera (L.) Small* tallowtree 1.41 3.23

Verbascum thapsus L*. common mullein 1.41 3.23

Wisteria floribunda (Willd.) DC.* Japanese wisteria 1.41 3.23

Wisteria sinensis (Sims) DC.* Chinese wisteria 1.41 3.23

*Indicates species considered to be invasive by the USDA-NRCS PLANTS database (2004).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 201

nonnative species. These differences may be due to land 

use, differences in overall species richness, site productivity, length of growing season, forest type characteristics 

or other environmental differences (for example, soil, 

moisture, temperature, precipitation, elevation, aspect). 

For example, the predominately deciduous forest of the 

Southern Appalachian Piedmont may be more susceptible to invasion by semi-evergreen and evergreen alien 

species than the evergreen pine forests of the Coastal 

Plain. Additionally, Craver (1982) suggested that, in the 

case of nonnative honeysuckles, invasion was correlated 

with soil moisture and light availability. Incorporating 

future P3 soil data, forest type characteristics, vegetation community analysis, cover estimates, and utilizing 

larger sample sizes will aid in extracting important 

predictive variables from the data and in identifying 

potential trends.

Overall, the use of USDA Forest Service FIA P2 nonnative species data provides an indication of the current 

extent of invasive plants in Southern forest ecosystems. 

However, incorporating the new P3 variables add a 

wealth of previously unavailable information regarding 

the spatial arrangement and distribution of these species, the proportion of nonnative to native species, and 

the relative influence of the species over the plot (using 

cover and frequency estimates). Moreover, P3 methods 

do not limit the collection of nonnative species present 

on a subplot to four, as is the case for P2 plots. While 

the P3 methods resulted in the detection of only nine of 

the 21 species listed as invasive in the P2 methodology, 

the increase in the detection of other nonnative species 

suggests that, given a full sample, P3 methodology may 

increase our ability to detect nonnative invasive species. 

In the future, this may enable forest managers to identify 

species that may become invasive, or to identify areas 

that may be of particular concern.

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Introduction

The Spiny Forest Ecoregion in southwestern 

Madagascar, one of the World Wide Fund for Nature 

(WWF) priority ecoregions, includes some of the biologically richest drylands on Earth. Native plants (didieraceae 

and euphorbia) have uniquely adapted to the extremely 

arid climate and poor soil conditions. Ring-tailed and 

sifaka lemurs (Lemur catta and Propithecus v. verreauxi), 

terrestrial tortoises (Geochelone radiata and Pyxis arachnoides), and several birds, reptiles, and amphibians are 

endemic to this ecoregion.

Over the last decade these natural areas have been 

exposed to various pressures, most stemming from 

human activity. With a human population of over 1.7 

million (INSTAT 1993) concentrated in the urban areas 

of Toliara, Fort Dauphin, and the emerging towns of 

Beloha, Ampanihy, and Tsihombe (fig. 1), the ecoregion 

is one of the poorest areas on the island of Madagascar. 

It is estimated that 88 percent of the population in the 

ecoregion lives below the national minimum per capita 

annual income (equivalent to US$38 in 2003) as defined 

by the World Bank (1999), and that 79 percent live in 

extreme poverty. The population is heavily reliant on 

natural resources for its livelihood, practicing agricultural and pastoral activities, as well as harvesting natural 

resources for subsistence and commercial purposes. Less 

than 3.2 percent of the remaining natural habitat in the 

Socioeconomic Root Causes of Biodiversity Loss in 

Madagascar

Anitry N. Ratsifandrihamanana, Conservation Director, WWF Madagascar and West Indian 

Ocean Program Office, Antananarivo, Madagascar

Dawn Montanye, Senior Program Officer, Macroeconomics Program Office, Poverty and 

Environment Program, WWF-US, Washington, DC

Sarah Christiansen, Senior Program Officer, Endangered Spaces Program, WWF-US; and 

Sheila O’Connor, Director, Conservation Measures and Audits, WWF International, 

Avenue du Mont-Blanc, 1196 Gland, Switzerland

Abstract—In 2000 and 2001 a root cause analysis was conducted for the Spiny Forest 

Ecoregion in Madagascar, identifying the local level root causes of biodiversity loss in 

the ecoregion as well as the policy and institutional issues at the national and international levels that contribute to them. Most of the research was conducted in and around 

Tulear and Fort Dauphin. Findings will be used to develop a strategic action plan for 

the ecoregion.

The direct threats to biodiversity loss in the ecoregion are forest clearing, land conversion, 

and habitat alteration. Root causes include demand for wood as a primary source of 

fuel for rural and urban populations, limited technical support to farmers, and the tying 

of land ownership to forest clearing. The current situation of deforestation, heavy land 

use, poverty and urban expansion is exacerbated by population growth and in-migration. In the regional government, lack of both management skills and training to execute 

programs and enforce laws is compounded by uncomplimentary and uncoordinated 

national policies. The deregulation of the agriculture sector—including the reduction of 

export taxes on all agricultural commodities, the elimination of cheap urban food policies in the late 1990s, and currency devaluation—contributed to increased agricultural 

production and exports, further driving deforestation.

Recommendations include the establishment of formal land tenure rights; enhancement 

of agricultural extension services; improved market access and economic development 

for agricultural crops and alternative forest products, including medicinal plants; and 

increased access to micro-credit by the poor. Avenues for promotion of linkages between 

the ministries that oversee the environment and economic and social development are 

identified.
204 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 1. Spiny Forest Ecoregion.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 205

ecoregion is currently included in the country’s network 

of protected areas.

WWF Ecoregion Conservation 

Approach

WWF defines an ecoregion as a relatively large parcel of land or water that harbors a characteristic set of 

species, communities, dynamics, and environmental conditions. Ecoregions therefore stretch over administrative 

and political boundaries. The WWF ecoregion approach 

aims at 1) ensuring the representation of biodiversity; 

2) ensuring the viability of key species populations; 3) 

maintaining the key ecological factors that sustain life; 

and 4) maintaining blocks of natural habitats that are large 

enough to ensure resilience to large-scale disturbances. 

Ecoregion-based conservation is characterized by a larger 

spatial scale than protected areas, and by a longer time 

frame—with a conservation vision of 25 to 50 years.

In 1998 WWF initiated an ecoregion-based conservation program for the Spiny Forests Ecoregion of 

Madagascar. A series of rapid biological assessments 

was undertaken across all major blocks of natural 

habitat in the ecoregion to assess conservation needs, 

potential threats, and opportunities for conservation. In 

2000, a more thorough analysis of the biodiversity of 

the ecoregion identified a network of nine priority areas 

for conservation that became the cornerstone of WWFs 

work in the region.

To be effective and sustainable, the conservation program’s partnerships, strategies, and interventions need 

to address the deeper political and institutional settings 

that affect biodiversity conservation in Madagascar. A 

detailed and comprehensive threat analysis was conducted to identify the root causes of biodiversity loss 

around the target areas.

The Root Causes Methodology

The methodology adopted for this study was modelled 

after the WWF Macroeconomics Program Office’s Root 

Causes of Biodiversity Loss Framework (StedmanEdwards 1998), which includes the following steps: 1) 

identification of direct pressures on natural resources and 

their socioeconomic root causes at the local (micro level), 

meso (communal, regional, provincial) and macro (national and international) levels, thereby highlighting key 

causal chains from one level to another; 2) identification 

of future social, economic, and political trends that may 

affect biodiversity conservation, based on development 

plans and projections at various levels; 3) development 

of a conceptual model to represent the linkages between 

biodiversity targets and the root causes at different levels, 

and the linkages between levels; and 4) development of 

recommendations to address the identified root causes 

of biodiversity loss at various levels. The root causes 

methodology is designed to give a holistic picture of 

biodiversity and the intricate socioeconomic factors that 

affect its conservation.

Results

Local Level Root Causes

The spiny forest has experienced some of the highest deforestation in Madagascar over the past decade. 

Forest loss translates into reduced availability of habitat 

for wildlife, and reduced availability of essential natural 

resources such as wood and medicinal plants for the 

local population. The loss of forest cover has led to 

decreased rainfall and loss of humidity, increasing the 

frequency of drought, and putting further pressure on 

farmers to produce enough food for consumption and 

income generation.

One of the primary causes of forest loss throughout 

the Spiny Forest Ecoregion is the demand for wood as a 

primary source of fuel for rural and urban populations. 

Rural inhabitants cut the forests to provide charcoal, 

fuelwood, and construction wood for their own consumption, and for sale in urban centers and large towns. 

Firewood is a major source of fuel for most households 

and the cutting of wood for cooking is a significant cause 

of environment degradation (EIU 2000). Over 90 percent 

of Madagascar’s urban population uses charcoal and 

firewood for energy in its homes. The sale of wood and 

charcoal provides a key source of income to the poor 

rural population; wood products are brought directly to 

town centers by wagon, or more often are sold roadside 

for a small percentage of the selling price in the urban 

centers.

Rural populations also exploit forests for the harvest 

of non-timber products such as honey. The collection of 

both wood and non-wood products is often unsustainable; 

a whole tree may be felled during honey collection, the 

honey removed and the tree wood left unused. Along 

the coast, canoe builders often utilize only the center 

portion of felled trees, leaving the remaining portions 

in the forest unused.

Although wood and other forest product collection 

puts tremendous pressure on the forests, maize cropping 

is the main threat to forest loss. Higher prices for maize, 

demand for maize exports, and low input requirements 

have provided the impetus for increased production and 

land clearing. The practice of slash and burn agriculture, 
206 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

coupled with poor quality soils, results in fields being 

abandoned and standing forests being cut for new crop 

land every two to three years. Rural populations are 

consequently moving further into previously forested 

land and away from existing communities, services, and 

roads, exacerbating rural poverty. Ultimately poor roads, 

lack of transportation, and weak links to market leave the 

rural populations insecure in their ability to participate 

in the local economy. Increasingly there are signs that 

this insecurity is leading many farmers to switch most 

of their effort from cash crops to the production of food 

for their own communities.

Keeping livestock is an important component of rural 

livelihoods, and forests and abandoned cropland are used 

for grazing. Increasing the size of the herd is a symbol of 

prestige, and income generated from the sale of agricultural crops is often used to buy more cattle. Production 

costs for this activity are low since household members 

take care of tending the herds. Overgrazing has degraded 

the forest understory, and repeated burning of pastureland 

has left only those species unsuitable for feed.

At the moment there is very little investment in the 

land and only limited support for improving farming 

techniques; only 1.5 percent of small farmers have access 

to credit. While there is a lack of formal land tenure, a 

license sold illegally from the local forest authority to 

remove the forest and convert it to agricultural land is 

considered by the rural population to equal land title 

rights. The incentive of land ownership and the tying of 

ownership to forest clearing have furthered deforestation.

Lack of local economic development and the difficulty 

of getting goods to town centers, coupled with low inputs 

for production of maize and lack of policing, means there 

is little incentive for favoring forest protection and conservation. Deforestation is often seen as the only means 

to survival, as it is directly linked to income generation 

through agricultural production and land ownership.

The current situation of deforestation, heavy land use, 

poverty and urban expansion is exacerbated by pressure 

from population growth and in-migration. A 22 percent 

increase in the human population in the ecoregion in the 

last six years has been driven largely by migration.

Regional Level Root Causes

At the regional government level, a lack of management skills and training in program execution and law 

enforcement is compounded by national level policies 

that are neither coordinated nor complementary. In some 

areas policies are in place that simultaneously attempt 

to promote both development and environmental protection. From 1997 to 2002, the Environmental Program 

tried to manage and organize these policies in five 

regions through Regional Development Committees, 

but bringing together the different representatives was 

difficult. There are also great inequities between urban 

and rural programs. The lack of health, education, and 

other public services at the local level serves to further 

exacerbate poverty.

Although a decentralization of government services 

and decision making is underway, it has yet to be seen 

how increased revenue to the regions will be utilized. 

Before decentralization, local authority control over 

spending equaled just 0.5 percent of GDP, and a large 

percentage of the income generated from export products 

from the regions went to the centralized government in 

the capital.

National/International Level Root 

Causes

National and international level forces, often out of the 

control of local resource users, have heavily influenced 

patterns of resource use in the Spiny Forest. Over the 

last decade, the government has instituted a number of 

reform programs in response to the requirements attached 

to loan agreements with the International Monetary Fund 

(IMF), World Bank (WB), and European Union (EU). 

The deregulation of the agriculture sector (including the 

reduction of export taxes on all agricultural commodities), the elimination of cheap urban food policies in the 

late 1990s, and currency devaluation have meant higher 

prices for agricultural products and increased agricultural 

production and exports. Maize exports from Toliara 

increased from 12 million Malagasy Francs in 1991 to 

10 billion Malagasy Francs in 1997. Devaluation and 

liberalization, coupled with the low inputs required for 

maize production, have been drivers behind increased 

deforestation.

The greatest amount of deforestation has taken place 

in areas managed under the jurisdiction of the Forest 

Administration (DEF), which receives very little funding. This situation contrasts with that of ANGAP; this 

government body manages protected areas (national 

parks and reserves), and has a much larger budget. DEF 

budget cuts have led to weakened enforcement of the 

forestry regulation system, unchecked illegal harvesting, 

and internal corruption. In 1995, regular monitoring of 

logging and charcoal permits was restricted to large-scale 

exploitation, ignoring smaller scale logging and leaving 

little incentive for small-scale rural farmers to adhere to 

forest protection and conservation regulations.

Structural adjustment programs for stabilization 

resulted in public expenditure compression, which 

further reduced the funds available for government 

outlays. Reduced government spending has jeopardized 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 207

enforcement and monitoring of existing environmental 

legislation. This can be seen at the local level in terms of 

lack of service delivery and compliance; a mere 5 percent 

of all investors comply with environmental impact assessment requirements.

International trade liberalization has stimulated activity by both artisanal fishermen and industrial operators. 

However, European, Russian and Japanese boats take 

much of the potential offshore catch. Commercial offshore prawn fishing and traditional river fishing are now 

both in decline from over-fishing, but modern seawater 

prawn farms, traditional fish farming in rice paddies and 

artisanal sea fishing are doing well. Prawns accounted 

for 80 percent of seafood export revenue in 1997.

Lack of coherence between the Ministries has led to 

inconsistent government policies. In 2000, 10 zones for 

tourism and industrial production were identified for 

lease and infrastructure development. These plans have, 

however, come into conflict with conservation priority 

sites designated by the Ministry of Environment and 

its implementing agency, the National Office for the 

Environment, which has conservation objectives and 

development projects of its own. This lack of policy coherence has led to inefficient management at the regional 

and local levels and has ultimately delayed the delivery 

of services and project implementation on the ground.

The World Bank’s 1997 Country Assistance Strategy 

(CAS) for Madagascar attempted to tackle widespread 

poverty by encouraging broad-based economic growth, 

led by significantly higher levels of foreign investment. 

The core strategies were aimed at creating a businessfriendly climate by unleashing market forces, improving 

public finances, and emphasizing the delivery of public 

goods and services to the poor. In many ways national 

efforts at market stimulation have never reached the rural 

communities in the Spiny Forest Ecoregion. In spite of 

efforts over the past 15 years to boost the agricultural 

sector, performance has remained low.

Trends, Threats, and 

Opportunities in Key Sectors

By borrowing from international financial institutions 

such as the World Bank, IMF and EU, Madagascar is 

required to adhere to certain policy reform measures, 

including: maintaining economic growth through 

government expenditure reduction and privatization; 

encouraging privatization; increasing agricultural production; increasing labor intensive industry and services; 

investing in support for the poor; making government 

more efficient and closer through the devolved provincial 

authorities; and establishing efficient revenue collection. 

Madagascar has also qualified for debt relief under the 

Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) initiative and is 

now scheduled to receive final loan disbursement under 

the IMFs poverty reduction and growth facility. In connection with qualification for debt relief under HIPC, 

the government is required to develop a national poverty 

reduction strategy (PRSP) that focuses on improvements 

in the areas of health, education, social services delivery, 

water and sanitation, rural development and protection 

of the environment, and improved governance to address 

poverty alleviation.

The IMF is also concerned with strengthening tax revenue and continued liberalization of trade. Much of the 

economy remains informal and beyond the reach of the 

tax authorities and the formal sector carries the burden of 

providing most tax revenue. In structural terms the focus 

is on regulation and transparency with the aim of curbing 

corruption and promoting competition in the provision 

of services. Involvement in regional trade liberalization 

is also encouraged.

The EU, World Bank, and IMF have identified tourism, mining, manufacturing, and agriculture as the 

sectors having potential for achieving high economic 

growth for the medium and long term; tourism is estimated to grow at an average rate of 15 percent per year, 

agriculture at an annual rate of 5 percent, and mining 

from 3 to 5 percent (EIU 2000).

The government plans to create an atmosphere favorable to private sector investment and will do this by 

liberalizing the movement of capital, reducing administrative constraints, improving access to land, establishing 

more secure land tenure rights, and improving road 

networks.

Tourism

The tourism industry is identified as underexploited 

and has the potential to more than double during the 

next 10 years. An investor friendly environment includes 

measures to provide access to land for development of 

infrastructure to accommodate a 10 to 15 percent increase 

in tourists per year. Applicants are expected to be internationally established hotel chains.

The spiny forest region is currently the first destination 

for nature-based tourism in Madagascar, with two-thirds 

of visitors coming to Madagascar for ecotourism, and 

another one-fourth coming for beach holidays. Marketing 

has been minimal, but the recent establishment of direct air links from Asia has opened new opportunities. 

Authorities have taken a number of steps to encourage 

tourism and bring down travel costs. A national tourism 

development committee and a tourism agency were 

established in 1991, and in 1995 the laws governing the 

sector were overhauled. Liberalization of the internal 
208 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

and regional air routes in 1994 opened up the local travel 

market to four new carriers. The long-haul air routes 

were also liberalized; the privatization of Air Madagascar 

could introduce further competition to the airline market, 

bringing prices down. There has been investment in both 

tourism infrastructure and staff training for improved 

services (EIU 2000).

Ten zones for tourism and industrial production have 

been identified and land will be leased and infrastructure 

developed, but there is the risk that informal land ownership will be disrupted by the assignment of commercial 

zones. The World Bank would like the government to 

give its own guarantees against interference by any third 

party and competing property claims, even in those originating in local governments (World Bank 1999).

Investment in ecotourism may be dubious in that its 

ability to reach the poor population and benefit development may be limited. In reality not all of the forested 

lands are priority sites for protection and conservation, 

thereby limiting the ability of ecotourism to provide 

incentive for controlling logging and forest clearing and 

delivering real benefits to the poor.

Mining

The exploitation of titanium sand, nickel, and cobalt 

could eventually double the size of the mining sector, 

and there is also the potential for exploitation of precious 

and semi-precious gems, gold, chrome ores, and quartz, 

as well as graphite, mica and marble at a smaller scale. 

The government strategy consists of the application of 

mining codes that promote large mines through changes 

in investment laws; developing small-scale mining with 

respect for the environment; and eradicating illicit trade 

and exploitation (World Bank 1999). A new mining 

code was approved in 1999, the objective of which was 

to reduce the existing mining application backlog by 80 

percent. This is expected to create conditions for transparent allocation of mining licenses, providing the public 

sector with a more predictable business environment in 

mining activities (EIU 2000).

The new mining code is consistent with existing environmental regulations, but these should be reviewed 

along with enforcement mechanisms. Large-scale mines 

should be examined for their direct and indirect impacts 

on environmental and human health.

Manufacturing

Madagascar’s eligibility in the Africa Bill initiative 

should assist in the growth of this sector, which includes 

activities from garment making to information processing. There has been increased success with the growth of 

textiles and other industries due to the new U.S. Africa 

Growth and Opportunities Act. The growth in this sector 

also offers opportunities for agriculture as it uses raw 

materials produced in the Malagasy farm sector (EIU 

2000).

Fishing and Agriculture

Increased agricultural production is key to economic 

growth and poverty reduction in Madagascar, and fish 

exports are an increasingly important source of foreign 

currency and an underexploited resource. Improvement 

of the performance of the shrimp aquaculture industry 

will be addressed through shrimp fishing licenses which 

will also provide tax revenue for the state. Guidance 

for enhancing the sector will be taken from the Rural 

Development Action Plan (PADR) and the involvement 

of the Rural Development Working Groups in each 

region. The proposed allocation of fishing licenses is 

designed to counteract the current incentive framework, 

and should provide a better incentive for sustainable 

exploitation by clarifying property rights (EIU 2000). 

The government must define an allocation system particular to Madagascar’s conditions, taking into account 

traditional fishermen, local participation, and fair competition for those firms that may receive foreign subsidies. 

Madagascar is being considered as a pilot country on 

which the Forum for Sustainable Fisheries (a coalition 

of multilateral agencies, bilateral donors, and NGOs) 

may focus to develop a dynamic and sustainable fisheries 

sector. Since 2002, WWF has been involved in supporting the establishment of sustainable shrimp farming and 

shrimp fisheries systems.

In terms of agriculture, the government is now focusing on land security in rural areas and supporting labor 

organization. The government plans to increase funding 

and development of income-generating agricultural practices, specifically short-cycle breeding and aquaculture. 

Increased agricultural research and rural credit is important as only 1.5 percent of small farmers have access 

to credit and a mere 5 percent of total lending goes to 

agriculture (World Bank 1999).

In addition to supporting small farmers, the World 

Bank is pushing for investor incentives to ensure easier 

exportation, which is expected to encourage the settlement of large scale farms. This would encourage dense 

populations to concentrate in high-potential areas, making infrastructure costs less prohibitive.

There may be danger in increasing large scale land 

holdings, as it may lead to increased landless laborers and 

exploitation by large scale owners where management 

may be far removed from the site. In addition, attention 

should be paid to export-oriented crops that rely heavily 

on imported inputs, such as petroleum-based products 

that respond dramatically to fluctuating global market 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 209

prices. Training and information dissemination in the use 

of inputs that can pose health risks—such as those associated with pesticides and herbicide use—is essential.

Agriculture “underperformance” is seen as a major 

cause of widespread rural poverty. Methods of agricultural intensification and extension must take into account 

environmental considerations as well as the impacts 

on the rural societies currently involved in small scale 

agricultural production (EIU 2000).

Infrastructure

Economic growth and poverty alleviation are impeded 

by basic economic infrastructure (EIU 2000). Possible 

improvements include adoption of a transportation policy 

in rural areas, rehabilitation of roads, the rehabilitation 

and construction of ports, and long-term maintenance 

to establish security and stability of market links. A port 

proposed by Rio Tinto Mine and the World Bank could 

benefit the developing industries of tourism, sisal, seafood and meat, and could reduce the costs of imported 

construction goods and other products in Taolanaro. The 

impact of the proposed port on the traditional fishing 

communities and the estuary will need to be investigated, 

and access by industries other than the Rio Tinto Mine 

must be guaranteed.

Upgrading and expanding infrastructure has been 

prioritized for meeting the infrastructure and support 

service needs of the 10 new industrial and tourism zones. 

This development strategy should be monitored for its 

potential to allow access to previously unexploited areas 

and the impacts on resource degradation, migration and 

social disruption.

Recommendations

Establishing Formal Land Tenure Rights

Land tenure reform is a primary objective of the World 

Bank and EU. Any efforts at reform must be coupled 

with education on formal versus informal and legitimate 

versus illegitimate land rights. Sensitivity must be paid 

to the fact that many rural inhabitants perceive that 

they already have land ownership from the purchase 

of permits, many of which were distributed illegally. 

In addition, land tenure reform must be coupled with 

agriculture extension.

Land tenure rights need to be extended to forested 

as well as non-forested land, and services provided for 

sustainable cultivation and sale of non-forest products. 

Monitoring and compliance for land ownership should 

take place and be accountable to users with sanctions put 

in place. There must be a system to ensure the financial 

sustainability of the programs that monitor and enforce 

existing forest and forest resource laws.

Agricultural Extension

Agricultural extension services need to be enhanced to 

provide information to rural farmers on better crop production and soil conservation. Work can be coordinated 

with agriculture donors and operators to develop more 

ecologically and economically sustainable uses for land 

production. SOPAGRI (Société de Production Agricole) 

should be encouraged to integrate crops other than maize 

into their collection and export scheme. Quality control, 

marketing and processing for country-wide food consumption needs to be improved to reduce reliance on food 

imports. Improvements of irrigation and water networks 

are needed, as only 16 percent of arable land is irrigated. 

The agriculture sector has the potential to provide raw 

materials for industrial products. The industrial sector has 

been successful and has the potential to take advantage of 

the limited import liberalization clauses of the new U.S. 

Africa Growth and Opportunities Act. This can in turn 

increase demand for the agricultural sector to produce 

primary inputs.

Improved Market Access and Economic 

Development

Better market access for agricultural crops and alternative forest products should be coupled with major 

investment in infrastructure, market outlets, and means 

of transport for the rural communities. National government strategies should also be coupled with regional and 

local capacity development. Efforts should be made to 

influence current development policies to this effect, 

including the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) 

and the World Bank’s Country Assistance Strategy 

(CAS). The Regional Development Committee (CRD) 

can be another avenue through which information and 

education on the market for goods could be provided. The 

Rural Development Working Group (GTDR) can provide 

information, education and communication regarding 

efforts to attract the private sector. GTDR can also be 

mobilized to identify income-generating activities and 

the CRD used to link environment considerations with 

investment strategies for the region.

Micro-credit

Many Malagasy are outside of micro-credit networks 

which are vital for grassroots development and poverty 

reduction. The introduction of credit schemes to rural 

populations is important for investment, and should be 

pursued by the national government in conjunction with 
210 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

land tenure policies and agriculture extension practices. 

In addition, local networks organizing micro-financing 

and providing loans should be supported.

These strategies need to be coupled with enforcement 

of existing environmental laws and forest protection, and 

incentives for increased agricultural production need 

to be assessed for perverse incentives inducing forest 

clearing and further land degradation. Money must be 

allocated to the DEF to ensure capacity development 

and adequate pay for forest officers, as well as the ability to address corruption. The government should be 

encouraged to view the DEF as being responsible for 

environmental conservation along with ANGAP. In addition, sanctions must be levied on violators of forest 

and park laws.

Increased Government Capacity

The national government should be encouraged to 

transfer funds and trained personnel from the central government in order to empower local councils. This should 

improve with the recent decentralization. Delivery of 

grassroots services could prove popular with donors, and 

may also help tax collection if people see their payments 

resulting in direct services. Programs like the existing 

provision to municipalities of budgets for reforestation 

should be encouraged.

National Policies and Their 

Coordination

There must be greater outreach and education explaining the relationship between economic policies and 

environmental degradation. Coordination of the various 

ministries must be facilitated to dispel the perception 

that environmental problems are only the problems of 

the Environment Ministry.

The Poverty Reduction Strategy can be used to promote linkages between the ministries overseeing the 

environment and economy, to encourage support of rural 

development and sustainability. Work at the national 

level should also focus on programs linking poverty alleviation with environmental protection, including the 

Sectorial Transport Programme, the National Programme 

for Support to the Private Sector, the National Population 

Policy for Economic and Social Development, the 

National Policy for the Promotion of Women, and the 

Environment Programme.

The national energy policy must move away from 

reliance on firewood, and opportunities to finance plants 

fuelled by solar power or bagasse should be pursued. A 

program to deliver alternative cooking fuels should be 

encouraged; a subsidy on kerosene could lower demands 

on fuelwood. Plans to reduce fuelwood consumption 

would need to be coupled with alternative income generation in those rural communities whose primary source 

of income is wood and charcoal sales.

Use of Study Results

Figure 2 illustrates the various socioeconomic causes 

of biodiversity loss and the linkages between them. These 

results were also summarized and shared with the donor 

community and with decision-makers in the key sectors 

of agriculture, tourism and the environment.

WWF used the study recommendations to design interventions at various levels and to mobilize partnerships 

to implement these interventions.

Local level interventions include:

supporting local stewardship of forests and natural 

resources by facilitating forest management transfer 

contracts between the State and communities neighboring priority conservation areas;

helping integrate environmental issues in local and 

communal development plans and helping introduce 

spatial zoning for development and conservation in 

such plans.

Communal and regional level interventions include:

partnering with PADR executing agencies and programs to provide sustainable alternatives to natural 

resource exploitation in target communities. This 

includes agricultural extension and the introduction 

of revenue generating activities such as small scale 

businesses;

mobilizing support to reinforce communal and regional structures and the ability to design and implement 

development plans;

developing an energy strategy for the Spiny Forest 

Ecoregion.

National and international level interventions include:

more in-depth study of the linkages between trade 

liberalization, rural poverty and the environment with 

a special emphasis on the case of maize exportation, 

and the creation of a National Advisory Committee to 

help influence trade policies in favor of the environment and rural development;

creation of and participation in a joint Environment 

Programme-PADR committee to ensure coherence 

and synergy between the rural development and environmental sectors;

creation of and participation in a joint forests/mining 

committee to facilitate dialogue between the two sectors, and to develop mechanisms for conflict resolution 

in areas of both high biodiversity and high mining 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

211

Figure 2. Socioeconomic causes of biodiversity loss and the linkage between them.
212 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

potential. These joint committees are playing a key 

role in the implementation of Madagascar’s recent 

commitment to triple its protected area coverage over 

the next five years.

Conclusions

The analysis of the root causes of biodiversity loss 

in the Spiny Forest has provided the basis of a 15-year 

Ecoregion Action Plan that identifies the strategies, actions, partners, and means necessary to ensure effective 

and sustainable conservation of the ecoregion’s biodiversity. The results of the study have been very useful 

in fostering dialogue with other sectors and raising their 

awareness of the potential environmental and social costs 

of their actions, and will eventually inform them on how 

these actions can be more sustainable.

The study has helped us gain a better understanding of 

the complex dynamics among which our work is taking 

place, and has helped us make more informed decisions 

on how to act. It must be stressed that the value of such a 

study heavily relies on the level of specificity that can be 

achieved; a root cause analysis should ideally start from 

the analysis of specific biodiversity targets (key species 

or habitats) in specific sites so that the higher level causes 

and subsequent interventions can be better adapted and 

targeted and hence be more responsive.

References

Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). December 2000. Country 

report Mauritius, Madagascar, Seychelles. London, United 

Kingdom.

Institut des Statistiques (INSTAT). 1993. Recensement de la 

population: Faritany de Toliara. Antananarivo, Madagascar: 

INSTAT.

Stedman-Edwards, P. 1998. Root causes of biodiversity 

loss: An analytical approach. Washington, DC: WWF 

Macroeconomics Program Office.

World Bank. 1999. Madagascar, an agenda for growth and 

poverty reduction. Washington, DC: The World Bank.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 213

Introduction

Tamarisk is a deciduous shrub/small tree that was 

introduced to the western U.S. in the early nineteenth 

century from Central Asia and the Mediterranean for use 

as an ornamental, in windbreaks, and for erosion control. 

Tamarisk, also known as salt cedar, is well suited to the 

western U.S., and has displaced much of the native vegetation along low-elevation river and stream banks from 

Mexico to Canada. Tamarisk is now estimated by some 

researchers to cover between 1 and 1.5 million acres of 

land in the western U.S.

Tamarisk is a tenacious plant that has a deep root 

system (up to 100 feet) and leaves a salt residue in the 

soil. These characteristics enable it to quickly displace 

native cottonwoods and willows as well as adjacent 

upland plant communities; such as bunch grasses, sage 

and rabbit brush. The resulting tamarisk thickets crowd 

out streams and rivers; provide poor habitat for livestock, 

animals, and birds; increase fire hazards; and limit human 

use of the waterways.

While each of these points is important to one or more 

constituencies, the single most critical problem is that 

tamarisk steals water by using more water than native 

vegetation that it displaces. This non-beneficial user 

of the West’s limited water resources dries up springs, 

wetlands, and riparian areas by lowering water tables. 

Based on average water use values for tamarisk and the 

native plant species it has replaced, a rough estimate of 

the non-beneficial consumption of water by tamarisk 

throughout the West ranges from 2.0 to 4.5 million 

acre-feet of water per year. These values are above and 

beyond what the native riparian vegetation would have 

consumed and represent enough water to supply upwards 

of 20 million people or the irrigation of over 1,000,000 

acres of land. And every year, the problem only continues 

to get worse.

A key requirement for the effective management of 

invasive plants is the ability to identify, map, and monitor invasions as well as the invaded plant communities. 

Hand-mapping in the field or from aerial photos are 

techniques commonly used in support of eradication efforts, but these methods are labor intensive and limited. 

Hand-mapping from field observation requires access to 

the site from the ground, a prospect that is not always 

practical, safe, or timely, especially on an active military 

base. Interpretation of aerial photos is extremely timeintensive and often necessitates interpretation of large 

numbers of photographs. In addition, it can be difficult 

to distinguish the weed species in the photos even with 

magnification, making the interpretation process highly 

Tamarisk Mapping and Monitoring Using High Resolution 

Satellite Imagery

Jason W. San Souci, Director of Remote Sensing Applications, Native Communities 

Development Corporation, Colorado Springs, CO

John T. Doyle, Sales Manager, DigitalGlobe, Inc., Monument, CO

Abstract—QuickBird high resolution multispectral satellite imagery (60 cm GSD, 4 

spectral bands) and calibrated products from DigitalGlobe’s AgroWatch program 

were used as inputs to Visual Learning System’s Feature Analyst automated feature 

extraction software to map localized occurrences of pervasive and aggressive Tamarisk 

(Tamarix ramosissima), an invasive species found along riparian corridors throughout 

the Western United States. Mapping was carried out along two major river systems 

known for widespread tamarisk invasions (Colorado River near Grand Junction, CO & 

Rio Grande River near Albuquerque, NM) using imagery acquired in late Fall, 2003. 

Mapped tamarisk occurrences were conservative, because only tamarisk vegetation 

with spatial areas greater than 10 square meters were classified and senesced tamarisk 

were not taken into account. Classification accuracies were greater than 80 percent 

based on ground verified data. Overall, these results confirm that high spatial but low 

spectral resolution remote sensing data coupled with machine learning classifiers can 

be used effectively for local precision mapping of tamarisk in dominant environments 

found in riparian landscapes.
214 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

subjective and likely to differ from one analyst to 

another. Because of these constraints, weed mapping is usually done on an as-needed basis, and 

comprehensive maps that would support time-series 

evaluation are not generally made. There is the 

need, therefore, to develop repeatable and reliable 

automated techniques for monitoring the spread 

of weeds and the effects of eradication efforts as well as 

changes in the habitats being managed. DigitalGlobe has 

developed a unique set of algorithms that have advanced 

the capabilities of remote sensing technologies for vegetation assessment. Specifically, they have discovered 

a method to calibrate the imagery to reflectance at the 

earth’s surface. DigitalGlobe has also developed the capability to remove variation in vegetative indexes caused 

by differences in soil brightness. This processing step 

potentially allows for mapping of the invader and surrounding plant communities that cannot be accomplished 

using more conventional multispectral imagery. Feature 

Analyst, the flagship automated feature extraction tool 

of Visual Learning Systems, Inc., is used in this study 

to exploit the strengths of the high-resolution digital 

imagery while reducing the extreme variability effects 

inherent to high-resolution imagery classification.

This study tested the suitability of AgroWatch data 

and Feature Analyst algorithms for improved mapping 

of a riparian plant community invaded by Tamarisk. This 

work will be useful in future decisions about methods 

for mapping Tamarisk and associated riparian vegetation 

in other regions.

Technical Objectives

Develop methodology to accurately, repetitively, and 

consistently map tamarisk invasions using:

Pan-Sharpened QuickBird Imagery

Calibrated AgroWatch Products

Advanced COTS Software

Test methodology in two study areas along separate 

riparian corridors within the Southwest

Leaf-on and multiple dates

Target size ranging from single tree to dense 

monoculture

Assess the accuracy of the classification

Collect reference data within each study area

Project Areas

The first study area was a 3.5-mile stretch of the 

Rio Grande River in Sandoval County, NM. This area 

recently underwent a tamarisk eradication and riparian 

1.

•

•

•

2.

•

•

3.

•

restoration project completed by the Santa Ana Pueblo. 

The riparian vegetation in the area was characterized by 

individual tamarisk plants and monotypic cottonwood 

stands. The second study area focused on a 5-mile section 

of the Colorado River in Mesa County, CO. This area 

is characterized by dense monotypic stands of tamarisk 

intermixed with native vegetation such as willow and 

cottonwoods, as well as non-native russian olive. Table 

1 compares the QuickBird image parameters for the two 

project areas.

Classification Methods

Regions of interest (ROIs) were created for use as 

training sets using a combination of field data, field notes 

and hand-mapped polygons. ROI polygons were created 

on an un-georeferenced true-color display of the image 

data using the field notes as reference by visually matching features in the un-georeferenced and georeferenced 

images.

The high spatial resolution of these data sets seemed 

to fit perfectly with the Feature Analyst workflow and 

analytical capabilities. Feature Analyst allows for a simplified, intuitive classification workflow: Train Learner, 

Remove Clutter, and Add Missed. The ROIs generated 

in the field were used to train the Feature Analyst learner 

on the spectral and spatial characteristics of tamarisk. 

Using Feature Analyst’s Learning Explorer feature and 

AgroWatch’s calibrated vegetation products allowed the 

learner derived during the first project area to be used 

directly on the second project area, with only slight 

modifications regarding the average tamarisk stand size 

in the latter project area. After a single iteration, results 

were very promising for tamarisk delineation in both 

project areas. The results of the accuracy assessment are 

illustrated in tables 2 and 3.

Conclusions

This study shows that the invasive plant Tamarisk 

and associated riparian vegetation types can successfully be mapped using QuickBird and AgroWatch data 

and with advanced machine learning techniques available in the commercial off-the-shelf software, Feature 

Table 1. Project Area Imagery Comparison.

River System Colorado River Rio Grande River

Acquisition Date October 25, 2003 September 27, 2003

Off Nadir Viewing Angle 12.7° 14.3°

Image Quality Excellent Excellent

Cloud Cover 0.0% 0.0%
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 215

Analyst. These techniques show promise as useful tools 

for evaluating the status of important habitats and the 

advance (or eradication) of an invasive weed. This is 

especially applicable in the management of riparian 

systems because constituent habitat types can change 

significantly in their spatial extents and distribution in 

just a few years. More work is needed to discover if 

learners can be used in images from different years for 

the same region for development of a sequence of maps 

that would allow change analysis, since variations from 

year to year in the timing of plant phenological stages 

will certainly be a factor.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the following people 

for their assistance in the field with various aspects of this 

project; without their contributions this project would not 

have been possible: Danna Rhodes, archaeobotanist and 

Glen Manley of the Adobe Creek Golf Course.

Table 3. CO Accuracy Assessment Results.

Reference

Classification	 # Plots	 Tamarisk	 Other	 Totals	 User’s Accuracy

Tamarisk 25 6 31 81%

Other 7 22 29 76%

Totals 32 28 60

Producer’s Accuracy 78% 79% 78%

Table 2. NM Accuracy Assessment Results.

Reference

Classification	 # Plots	 Tamarisk	 Other	 Totals	 User’s Accuracy

Tamarisk 17 2 19 89%

Other 3 18 21 86%

Totals 20 20 40

Producer’s Accuracy 85% 90% 88%
216 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction and Background

Environmental surveillance at a continental scale is 

an important conservation requirement in vast territories, such as in South America, where large and diverse 

ecoregions are being altered by a number of unsustainable 

development practices (Busch and Trexler 2003, World 

Conservation Union, IUCN 1992). Although deforestation, soil erosion and biodiversity loss have become the 

primary sources of poverty and social distress in the 

region, very few continental baseline studies are available for initiating a large scale monitoring program in 

South America.

A recent gap analysis project developed by UNEP 

(United Nations Environmental Program) and The Nature 

Conservancy (funded by the Global Environmental 

Facility, GEF), provides large amounts of data, maps 

and other types of information that should be used as 

a starting point for a monitoring system in five of the 

biotically richest ecoregions in the world (UNEP, The 

Nature Conservancy, NatureServe 2003).

The project was executed by local conservation/science 

organizations in Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and 

Paraguay, for five global priority ecoregions as described 

by Dinerstein E. and collaborators (1995) in a World Bank 

and WWF study. From north to south, the ecoregions 

are: the Choco Humid Forests (Colombian Pacific and 

Norwest Ecuador), three ecoregions on the eastern slopes 

of the Andes in Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia, and the Dry 

Chaco in northern Paraguay and southern Bolivia.

Among the results, 6,473 species of flora and fauna 

have been analyzed (each one with a map indicating it’s 

potential geographic distribution), and over 6,500 thematic maps have been produced, indicating vegetation 

types, centers of high diversity and endemism, current 

and potential threats, forest fragmentation, infrastructure, 

location of protected areas, and basic socio-economical 

information.

During the project the best contacts with governmental agencies in each country where developed 

(Environmental Ministries and other agencies), as well 

those with international organizations and foundations 

and with local NGOs and local communities. More than 

a 100 organizations were contacted in the region, many 

of them collaborating directly with the project. As a result the Inter American Development Bank is currently 

funding the social and economic studies for the selected 

sites (Inter American Development Bank 2004).

With this basic inventory information, monitoring system plans are being developed. The goal of implementing 

such a system is based on the fact that governments, 

NGOs and local groups need to be able to rapidly develop 

conservation activities over precise areas of importance 

that may be detected by the system. In that way, the 

monitoring system will contribute to better conservation 

results using fewer monetary resources.

A number of elements will be considered first, such 

as the monitoring system structure from a technical, 

organizational, and political points of view. The three 

main planned elements for the system will be: Landscape 

Ecology, Biological guidelines, and Conservation Policy 

Monitoring Ecosystems and Biodiversity at a Continental 

Scale—A Proposal for South America

Dr. Xavier Silva, Director, IDB-TNC Ecoregional Project, South America. Teacher and 

Lecturer, San Francisco de Quito University. Board Member, OÏKOS Foundation

Abstract—A monitoring system plan is being developed in South America to assess 

critically endangered ecoregions. The system will be based on a previous ecosystem 

and biodiversity inventory developed through a large gap analysis program in five 

South American ecoregions. The monitoring system will include three main elements: 

(1) Landscape Ecology: vegetation cover, fragmentation and deforestation, infrastructure (road, dams, pipelines); (2) Biological guidelines: species richness, endemism, 

endangered species and species of a particular interest; and (3) Conservation Policy 

and Socio-Economic guidelines: national protected areas systems, conservation policies, 

human population on important areas, main economic activities and other. Such a system is an important need for governments and private organizations in South America, 

especially to detect critical sites and socio-political issues before the environmental 

problems become too large.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 217

/ Socio-Economic issues. These guidelines will include 

a variety of topics, such as vegetation cover, forest 

fragmentation, deforestation (rates & specific location), 

species richness, endemism, species of a particular interest (including economic interests), national protected 

areas systems, local conservation policies, human population over critical areas, main economic activities, and 

other issues (Pearce 1993, Dillon and others 1996).

The monitoring network structure is being planned to 

include different executing partners in different countries, 

all following the same basic monitoring philosophy 

and methodology. Executing partners and other partners related to the monitoring system will periodically 

make available critical information to environmental 

government offices, NGOs, local organizations, specific 

communities and other stakeholders in order to catalyze 

immediate action.

Remote sensing, GIS, and field monitoring activity will 

be integrated in the monitoring system. Basic field observations can be developed for implementation by local 

peoples, park guards, university students, and scientists. 

A set of indicators will be identified for different scales 

and levels of the monitoring system. Also, basic social 

and economical indicators are being integrated into the 

system. Coordination with other systems and databases 

in the region is also a priority, such as with Conservation 

International and the University of Maryland which are 

monitoring certain areas of the Amazon Basin.

Planned to be implemented in 2005, this will be the 

first continental-scale environmental monitoring system 

in South America.

Monitoring System Outline

Goals

The main goal of the Monitoring System in South 

America is to provide early detection and warning of 

emerging environmental problems in the region, especially at an ecoregional scale. This should catalyze 

conservation and environmental management processes 

and negotiations at national levels before the problem 

becomes more difficult to control.

Other objectives will provide to the conservation/science community and to the general public a solid baseline 

of information about ecosystems, habitats, species, 

national conservation policies and basic socio-economic information related to the environment in South 

America.

Ecoregions Proposed

The aim of the Monitoring System is to work in the 

whole South American continent, although a first iteration of critical ecoregions should be addressed initially. 

This leads to an organized step-by-step process and the 

opportunity to test and improve the system before moving to other ecoregions.

A logical starting point is to work with ecoregions that 

already have solid sets of information, such as the ones 

that were addressed in the UNEP/GEF Gap Analysis 

project (UNEP, The Nature Conservancy, NatureServe, 

2003) (fig. 1).

Figure 1.
218 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Biogeographic Choco

Tropical humid forest along the Pacific Coast, from 

southern Panama to northwest Ecuador. Most of the 

ecoregion is located on the Colombian Coast. This is 

one of the most biologically diverse ecoregions in the 

world. The endemism rates are among the highest in 

continental ecoregions. This ecoregion also includes 

isolated dry valleys originating in the Andes. Main threats 

to this ecoregion are logging (both legal and illegal) in 

northwest Ecuador, and deforestation by the expansion 

of agriculture.

Eastern Cordillera Real Montane Forest

Cloud forest and forest foothills in the upper reaches 

of the Amazon Basin, mainly Ecuador eastern Andean 

slopes. Great variety of habitats, from the lower foothills 

(800 meters - 2,640 feet) to the highlands treeline (over 

3,500 meters - 11,550 feet). High biological diversity. 

This ecoregion is threatened by clearing for new pastures 

(livestock) and agriculture.

Peruvian Yungas

Eastern Andean slopes in Peru. Combination of cloud 

forests and deep valleys (called yungas), some of them 

running parallel to the Andes. A great variety of habitats as in the previous ecoregion with high biological 

diversity. Main threats include clearing for new pastures 

(livestock) and agriculture, as well as coca plantations.

Bolivian Yungas

Similar to the Peruvian Yungas, but located towards 

the south where greater seasonal climatic variations 

occurs. Main threats are clearing for new pastures (livestock) and agriculture, and coca plantations.

Dry Chaco

Southern Bolivia and Northern Paraguay. The ecoregion is a combination of several dry ecosystems with 

unique flora and fauna, including wild peanuts (original 

genetic bank) and lowland guanacos. Main threats are 

vegetation clearings for new pasturelands, fires and burning of natural vegetation.

Main Guidelines

Three sets of guidelines are proposed for the 

Monitoring System database.

Landscape ecology elements

These guidelines include: (1) Vegetation Cover 

and Vegetation Classification. (2) Fragmentation and 

Deforestation, including form and size of fragments, 

location and deforestation rates. (3) Base Map & Main 

Threats; threats include infrastructure such as new roads 

and agricultural frontier expansion, logging areas, pipelines, dams, etc. Landscape ecology issues will be based 

on the most up to date remote sensing images and GIS. 

Scale for the proposed maps would be 1:500,000.

Biological elements

The Biological Guidelines include 4 main topics: 

Species Richness, Endemism, Endangered Species and 

Species of particular interest (including economic value). 

For this elemnt, all biological indicators (see biological 

indicators criteria bellow) will have a potential geographic distribution map, based on vegetation cover and 

habitat types. GIS management of potential distribution 

maps will show the important areas for biological diversity, endemism, endangered species and species with a 

particular interest (fig. 2).

Conservation policy & socio-economic elements

These address issues using basic information sets: 

(1) National Protected Areas Systems (scale 1:500,000); 

(2) National Environmental Offices and current Contact 

Representatives (6 month period update); (3) Principal 

Conservation/Science NGOs and other related organizations (6 month period update); (4) Principal National 

Projects, such as road construction, pipelines, dams, 

etc. (1 year period update); and (5) Socio-Economic 

Database, including several fields, like population (in 

the selected ecoregions), main economic activities, per 

capita income, local organizations, principal markets, 

distribution of products, and related datasets.

Indicator Species

The selection of biological indicators is an important 

procedure for the development and maintenance of 

monitoring systems. Several criteria are commonly used 

for selecting indicators (The Nature Conservancy, 2000). 

Given the fact that this monitoring system is based on 

an ecoregional scale, the three main criteria planned to 

be applied for both plants and animals are:

Representativity

The species selected should be representative of the 

ecoregions and should integrate well with the elements 

and topics that will be used in the monitoring system. In 

this particular case species selected should be representative of the chosen ecoregions (see description above) and 

of the following topics: endemism (the most important 

endemic species); endangered species (in this case, 

critically endangered species, based on IUCN criteria); 

species with a particular interest (the most important species related to economic activities) and species richness. 

For this topic, a sufficient number of species (providing 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

219Figure 2. 
220 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

statistical value) should be selected, based on the criteria 

covered by the next point.

Knowledge

The species selected should have a sufficient set of 

information (based on previous scientific studies and historical data) to provide adequate information on general 

geographic distribution and habitat preference; and basic 

ecology like habits, interaction with other species, food, 

etc. For some animal species there is sufficient baseline 

information, as in the case of several vertebrates, including most birds and mammals, and some amphibians and 

reptiles. Invertebrate data (except some insects, such as 

butterflies) is comparatively poor and not useful for a 

continental scale system, because of the lack of data. 

There is a similar situation for plants. Vascular plants 

have more information than the non-vascular ones.

Ease of observation

Even though some species have good basic information, their accessibility on the field can be difficult. 

For an ecoregional scale system it is better to choose 

species that are relatively easy to observe in the field, 

except perhaps in the case of endemic and endangered 

species. Basic field observations can be developed for 

implementation by local peoples, park guards, university 

students, and scientists.

Organizations and Governance

There are three levels of organizations that need to be 

considered for the development and the management of 

the Monitoring System

Executing organizations

These are the organizations that maintain the system’s 

information database at a national level and also develop 

the early detection process and awareness of environmental problems. The executing agencies are in charge 

of the following main activities: remote sensing analysis, 

cartography & GIS, database structure & data population, 

field work (coordinate with local peoples, park guards, 

university students, and scientists) and data distribution 

through web pages and specific information to government agencies. These agencies should be in close contact 

with other conservation/science organizations, such as 

NGOs, universities, museums, local groups, etc. For the 

implementation of the monitoring system, it is suggested 

that the same five organizations (one in each country) 

that developed the databases (cartography, species and 

socio-economic data) for the previous UNEP-GEF gap 

analysis be utilized (fig. 3).

Recipient organizations

These are the principal organizations where the information should first be routed, especially in the case of 

an early warning process. Among these organizations, 

are the government agencies for environmental issues. 

This includes environmental ministries and other high 

level government organizations related to the environment, land use planning, agriculture, oil exploration and 

exploitation, logging and national infrastructure (roads, 

pipelines, dams, etc.). The proposed national executing 

agencies have already initiated contacts with these type 

of organizations in each country. Other recipients of the 

information are NGOs, local communities, universities 

and the general public (using internet technology).

Coordinating organization

The Coordinating Organization oversees the general functioning of the monitoring system and has an 

international communication role. This organizational 

body provides high level representation to the executing 

agencies and helps to maintain good relations with the 

recipient agencies. It also is charged with managing and 

maintaining a sufficient level of funds for the system’s 

functioning. The coordinating organization interacts with 

international organizations, such as the World Bank, 

Inter American Development Bank, Andean Corporation 

(CAF), Andean Community of Nations (CAN), European 

Community, and with other organizations developing 

ecoregional scale databases and monitoring systems; as 

is the case with The Nature Conservancy, Conservation 

International, and the University of Maryland for the 

Amazon Basin.

Discussion

Working on an environmental monitoring system at a 

continental scale is a very ambitious task, especially in 

South America where biological and ecological knowledge is still rudimentary in many cases. The system 

proposed in this paper will follow several iterative steps; 

the first one is to concentrate activities in key ecoregions, 

especially the ones that are important because of their 

biological richness and for their level of threats. The 

first set of ecoregions selected for the monitoring system 

all have sufficient baseline information to initiate the 

monitoring process, thanks to a previous UNEP-GEF 

gap analysis, from which several indicator species and 

ecosystems can be chosen. With a current IDB project 

providing the social and economic follow-up for the 

ecoregions, integrating socio-economic information is 

also reinforced.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 22

1Figure 3. 
222 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Working with a disparate set conservation/science 

organizations, both at national and international levels, 

is a challenging task and needs to be considered from 

the beginning of the system’s development. This includes 

the main national and international conservation/science organizations, universities, museums, and others. 

Also, recipients of the information, such as government 

agencies should be active partners of the monitoring 

system. International agencies, like the World Bank, IDB, 

European Community and bilateral agencies such as the 

USAID, need to be involved as well.

A crucial factor for developing the monitoring system 

as a permanent source of information and early warning 

detector, is to maintain a high level of professionalism 

both from the technical side (biological, ecological, socio-economic, informatics) and from the administrative 

point of view. The executing organizations’ experience 

and technical competence, as well as the coordinating 

organization and partner’s efficiency are key to the development of the system.

Finding resources, including human resources and 

funds, is another critical task for the development and 

structuring of the monitoring system. All system’s partners and especially the coordinating organization should 

provide the necessary means to maintain a sufficient flow 

of resources through the development of relationships 

with international organizations, local governments and 

other types of funding organizations.

References

Busch D. E. and J. C. Trexler (editors), 2003. The Importance 

of Monitoring in Regional Ecosystem Initiatives in: 

Monitoring Ecosystems; Interdisciplinary Approaches 

for Evaluating Ecoregional Initiatives. Island Press, 

Washington, D.C.

Dillon J. A., L. F. Scura, R. A. Carpenter, and P. B. Sherman. 

1996. Economic Analysis of Environmental Impacts. 

Earthscan Publications Ltd. / The Asian Development Bank 

and The World Bank. London.

Dinerstein E. and D. Graham, 1995. A conservation assessment 

of the Terrestrial Ecoregions of Latin America and the 

Caribbean. World Bank, WWF. Washington DC.

Inter American Development Bank (IADB) and The Nature 

Conservancy, 2004. Management Alternatives based on 

Environmental Services. High Priority Sites for Ecological 

Conservation in the Andean Community (ATN/NP 8462 

RG), First Report.

World Conservation Union (IUCN), 1992. Protected Areas of 

the World. Volume 4. Gland, Switzerland

Pearce, D. W. 1993. Economic Values and the Natural World. 

The MIT Press. Cambridge, Massachusetts.

The Nature Conservancy, 2000. A geography of hope. (2nd 

edition). Washington, D.C.

United Nations Environmental Program (UNEP), The 

Nature Conservancy, and NatureServe, 2003. Catalyzing 

Conservation Action in Latin America: Identifying Priority 

Sites and Best Management Alternatives in Five Global 

Significant Ecoregions (GEF/1010-00-14) Final Report.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 223

Introduction

The Forest Inventory and Analysis program within 

the Forest Service is the only inventory and monitoring 

programs in the U.S. that carries out large-scale descriptive forest vegetation inventory and monitoring across 

all forest land ownerships with consistent, compatible 

protocols for landscape scale information reporting. And, 

these inventories have been the scientifically reliable 

basis of national assessments of the Nation’s forests for 

more than 5 decades. A general overview of the nature 

and application of inventory and monitoring will be followed by an overview of specific role of FIA in national 

assessments.

Nature of Inventory and 

Monitoring

In simple terms, monitoring is the process of checking 

or observing something, relative to a standard or baseline, 

for a particular purpose, followed by interpretation and 

possible action. The notion of comparison to a baseline 

explicitly implies repeated measurements when considering inventories. The timing, content, and scale of 

these measurements must depend on the both the need 

for the information and the availability of data from 

other ancillary sources required for possible analysis. 

Coordination between agency units (State and Private 

Forestry, Research, and National Forest System) and 

external partners (public participants; Federal, State, and 

local agencies, tribal governments, universities, and special interest groups) is mandatory for effective inventory 

and monitoring activities aimed at addressing issues or 

policies which cross multiple spatial and legal boundaries. 

Vegetative inventory and monitoring is considered one of 

the principal tools the Forest Service will use to assure that 

the goal of achieving and maintaining sustainable forest 

ecosystems is being accomplished.

More specifically, inventory and monitoring is defined 

as the process of repeating vegetative inventories and 

developing analyses to assess resource trends and provide the basis for broad policy decisions. In this context, 

inventory and monitoring (referred to as simply ‘monitoring’ henceforth) can be divided into the broad generic 

categories of descriptive and prescriptive monitoring 

(Barnard and others 1985). Descriptive monitoring (also 

referred to as strategic or landscape-scale monitoring) 

provides information on an extensive landscape and 

broad environmental scale for public policy development and analysis. An example of this type of monitoring 

would be the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) grid 

inventory. Prescriptive monitoring (also referred to as 

management or operational monitoring) is much more 

resource intensive and aimed at providing information for 

local managerial action. Prescriptive monitoring usually 

provides detailed information for a limited geographic 

area and is aimed at developing or evaluating management plans for particular tracts of land. Examples of this 

type of monitoring include stand exams, wildlife surveys, 

recreation surveys, etc.

Vegetative landscapes consist of large numbers of 

individual elements distributed over wide areas making 

it logistically and economically impractical to use complete census as a monitoring tool of choice. Sampling, 

in some form, is the only practical solution to obtaining reliable information on the content, structure and 

condition of the resource. Since trend information over 

time is important, a process for linked repetition of the 

sampling, or monitoring, is critical. A key consideration 

in all types of monitoring is the accuracy level required 

An Overview of Inventory and Monitoring and the Role of 

FIA in National Assessments

W. Brad Smith, Associate National Program Manager for Forest Inventory and Analysis, 

USDA Forest Service Research & Development, Washington, DC

Abstract—This paper presents a brief conceptual overview of inventory and monitoring 

and the role of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program in national assessments. 

FIA has become a focal point of national inventory and monitoring and kept national 

leadership as well as forest resource research and management professionals apprised, 

through periodic reports to Congress and others on the status, condition and health of 

the Nations forests across all ownerships for over 75 years.
224 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

for the variables of interest, which, in turn, impacts the 

number and orientation of samples needed.

Statistical sampling of natural resources generally 

involve three fundamental components 1) area classification or stratification in which relatively homogeneous 

environments are recognized; 2) direct measurement of 

observable characteristics of interest; and 3) indirect 

measurement where characteristics, such as volume or 

condition, are inferred from models based upon measurements taken in the second component (Barnard and others 

1985). Remote sensing and GIS systems are primary tools 

in the first component; sampling theory, plot design, and 

collection apparatus dominate the second; and ecological 

theory, mathematical formulation, and analytical process 

dominate the third component.

Application of Inventory and 

Monitoring

The remainder of this paper will focus on descriptive 

or landscape-scale monitoring. One of the first descriptive inventory estimates for the forests of the U.S. was 

provided by Franklin Hough (1878-1882). Concerns 

arose, however, about the subjective method of data 

collection and reliability of the information. Since that 

time, foresters in this country have relentlessly pursued 

better ways to provide statistically reliable information 

that describe the extent, condition, and trends in the forest 

resources of the nation. By the turn of the 19th century 

Graves (1907) described many alternative designs for 

large-scale forest assessment including plot cruises over 

extensive forest areas. Later, systematic cruise designs 

using fixed area plots were recommended by Sewall 

(1911) and Clark (1913) which would provide greater 

measurement precision and produce reliable estimates of 

the resource at low cost. The science of large-scale descriptive forest inventory in the U.S. was being born.

By 1920, several further attempts had been made to 

estimate the volume contained in the nation’s forests 

(Martin, 1983), but none would yet bear up under the 

rigors of modern statistical evaluation. This shortcoming, coupled with nagging concerns over the status of 

the Nation’s forests and ongoing depletion of the timber 

supply, ultimately led to the passage of the McSweeneyMcNary Act in 1928 by the federal government. This 

Act, which also created the federal Forest Research organization in the Forest Service, directed the Secretary of 

Agriculture “to make and keep current a comprehensive 

survey of the present and prospective requirements for 

timber and other forest products in the United States...” 

This directive became the legal mandate for the national 

Forest Survey. The new Forest Research organization 

would use much of the earlier work on sampling as a 

foundation for more rigorous approaches.

The U.S. Forest Service, under the authority of the 

McSweeny-McNary Act, initiated FIA (then called Forest 

Survey) in Oregon, in 1930. Shortly thereafter, in 1931 

and 1934, the Southern Forest Experiment Station and 

Lakes States Forest Experiment Station, respectively, 

launched forest surveys. In the Northwest the survey 

statistics were gathered by compilation of existing data 

with new data collected for areas where information 

was lacking. In the South (Lentz 1931). and Lake States 

(Gafvert 1938), a systematic lineplot survey was established. While the Compilation Method and Lineplot 

method (Lentz 1931) were most common, these early 

implementations still lacked the desired statistical rigor 

for the task at hand. And, sampling methods but were 

generally constrained by terrain and the availability of 

adequate spatial information (maps or photography) 

relative to the forests to be measured.

By the late 1930’s sampling theory for large-scale 

inventories had greatly progressed, and with the advent 

of more widely available aerial photography, the current 

method of double sampling for stratification began to 

take shape. This approach, described by Bickford (1952), 

used aerial photos to determine or stratify the location 

and extent of the forest and ground plot measurements 

to quantify and describe strata attributes. The formal 

theory for this approach, presented by Schumacher and 

Chapman (1942) and Yates (1949), has survived the 

rigors of statistical and scientific scrutiny for nearly five 

decades and continues to form the basis of Forest Service 

descriptive or landscape-scale vegetative sampling for 

providing consistent, reliable State, regional, and national 

assessment information. 

By the end of the 1960’s, an inventory had been completed in every State except Alaska using this approach. 

And, while the field plot design and its attendant data 

measurements have been modified over the years in 

response to changing information needs and the need 

to link to new technologies such as satellite and aerial 

remote sensors, this basic sampling approach continues 

to demonstrate incredible adaptability and reliability. 

This relentless pursuit of scientific excellence would 

position the Forest Service to provide the first reliable national inventory report in the early 1950’s (USDA Forest 

Service 1958), and provide a sound basis for supplying 

new types of resource information a rapidly changing 

clientele demanded. In 1967, FIA would codify a standard 

for consistent monitoring in the Forest Survey Handbook 

FSH4809.11, which contained core definitions, variables, 

and tables for reporting timber inventories.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 225

Changing Mandates

During initial Forest Service state-wide inventories 

and several repeat inventories, under the auspices of 

the McSweeney-McNary Act, forest conditions deemed 

less valuable from a timber perspective were often overlooked (Van Hooser 1992). By the 1970’s, a growing 

awareness of the complex interactions among the many 

forest uses led to the Forest and Rangeland Renewable 

Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 1974, The National 

Forest Management Act (NFMA) of 1976, and the Forest 

and Rangeland Renewable Resources Research Act of 

1978. The RPA required an Assessment of the nation’s 

forest and rangeland resources every decade and development of a long-range program to guide natural resources 

policy. All three laws expanded the inventory mandate 

to cover all renewable resources on the nation’s forest 

and rangelands.

FIA responded in the late 1970’s by expanding predominantly timber-oriented inventories into broader, 

multi-resource activities. All forest inventory field units 

began to gather data on wildlife habitat, recreation, soil, 

and water resources. An example of the magnitude of the 

change is reflected in the number of variables now being 

measured by FIA. Before 1974, most FIA field units collected fewer than 60 timber variables on each plot. Today, 

more than 150 items may be recorded at each location 

(VanHooser 1992). More than half of these are related to 

land use, vegetation structure, and other site descriptors 

that may have no direct relationship to timber supply. 

And, since 1980, FIA researchers and cooperators have 

published hundreds of reports and articles on non-timber 

resources (Rudis and others 1991).

Environmental concerns about pollution effects on forest condition prompted passage of the Forest Ecosystem 

and Atmospheric Pollution Research Act of 1988. This 

Act directs the Forest Service to monitor long-term trends 

in the health and productivity of forest ecosystems. In 

response, the Forest Service began establishing a network 

of “sentinel plots” in cooperation with the Environmental 

Protection Agency’s Ecosystem Monitoring and 

Assessment Program (EMAP). Information collected 

at these locations annually is much more detailed than 

regular FIA forest surveys with collection of soil and 

foliage samples for detailed analysis as well as other 

sophisticated indicator measures requiring highly trained 

ecologists, botanists, entomologists, pathologists, and 

soil scientists. These sentinel plots, known as the Forest 

Health Monitoring (FHM) detection network, consists 

of a grid of plots installed at 1/16th the intensity of the 

national plot grid maintained by FIA. The FHM detection plot network was integrated into the national FIA 

grid in 1998.

As inventory focus moved from timberland to all 

forest land, forests that were reserved, marginally productive for timber, or in proximity to urban areas have been 

given more attention. In 1992, Forest Service leadership 

directed that the FIA inventory grid would be extended 

across all agency forest lands regardless of status or 

location (Leonard 1992, Reynolds 1996) in order to provide a more comprehensive vegetative inventory. Since 

this directive was issued, hundreds of plots have been 

established in Wilderness, National Parks, urban areas, 

and what were previously deemed marginally productive 

forest lands from a timber perspective. FIA had become 

a true ‘forest’ inventory.

Prior to passage of the Forest and Rangeland 

Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA), timber was the main focus of most Forest Service inventories 

both descriptive and prescriptive. Post RPA, all Forest 

Service vegetative surveys have taken on a more multiresource flavor. The primary focus of ecosystem-based 

inventories is repeatable, objective observations that 

strive to enumerate and measure basic forest attributes 

that define ecosystem composition, structure and function. The advent of new technologies in geo-positioning, 

remote sensing, and geographic information systems 

(GIS) offers tremendous potential for linking field sample 

data in a spatially explicit (mapped) way to analyze large 

landscapes (Powell 1994).

In 1995, an initiative from the White House Office 

of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Committee 

on Environment and Natural Resources CENR began to 

take shape that would realize the importance of a network 

approach to integrated inventory and monitoring of the 

nation’s resources. This effort proposes a framework 

that builds on existing systematic observations and 

monitoring of ecological systems; promotes compatible 

standards, methods and protocols; and provides a strategy 

developing information for resource assessments at various temporal and spatial scales (OSTP 1996).

The conceptual framework is shown in figure 1. 

Monitoring is divided into three general classes (starting at the base of the triangle): 1) those that characterize 

specific properties of large regions by continuous measurement (remote sensing based inventories); 2) those 

that characterize specific properties of large regions by 

sampling (for example, FIA ); and (3) those that can 

census properties and processes of specific locations 

(LTERs, Intensive Ecosystem Monitoring Sites such as 

Hubbard Brook, etc).

The texture and dynamics of complex forest ecosystems requires information from all three of these 

levels to efficiently and effectively address the difficult 

management issues we face today with limited financial 

and physical resources. At the top of the hierarchy is a 
226 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

small number of intensively monitored sites (index sites) 

where physical, chemical, and biological measurements 

of different ecosystem components are measured simultaneously at the same location on a long-term basis. The 

middle level, ground based regional and national surveys, 

provide common core data on a large number of locations. This level also provides data to place index site 

data into a broader context and is useful in calibration 

and validation of regional/national ecosystem models. At 

the lower level, inventories utilize linkage variables that 

allow incorporation of progressively more remote sensing data to develop site specific plans and applications. 

Information from this tier also provides additional validation information for models developed at the top and 

middle levels. The primary benefit of such a framework 

is access to appropriate information that can be utilized 

across many programs, both public and private, and applied to specific issues and questions at varying scales.

FIA’s descriptive inventories provide a basic suite 

of vegetative data across all landscapes measured in a 

consistent and compatible manner on the national grid. 

Simple examination of these data may suggest hypotheses 

for the geographic distribution of forested ecosystems, 

associated characteristics and habitats for forest-dwelling species, or trends in regional ecological landscape 

dynamics and land-use practices (Rudis 1991). In the 

process of establishing an inventory implementation 

plan for a given resource area, whether it is wilderness 

or not, Forest Service researchers work with the principal 

managers, scientists and publics that are interested in 

monitoring information from that area to determine if additional data could provide useful indicators of resource 

condition, health, or change.

A key feature of FIA’s national grid inventory is its 

systematic design which does not predicate sample location on a pre-stratified boundary system (for example, 

stands, watersheds, ecoregions, etc). The systematic grid 

allows the user to draw boundaries of interest knowing 

that a systematic, representative group of plots will be 

available for analysis. This establishes national grid data 

as a useful tool to compare or validate other sampling 

techniques by providing an independent estimate of variables of interest, e.g. using national grid data in global 

monitoring models (Iverson and others 1990, Lund 1990, 

Tueber 1990, VanHooser and others 1990).

FIA and National Assessments

Since its inception under the McSweeney/McNary Act 

of 1928, FIA has been envisioned as the source of consistent, scientifically sound information to guide assessment 

and management of the Nation’s forest resources. The 

first National Assessment of the Nation’s timber resource, 

based on predominantly amounts of FIA field verified information, was the 1952 Timber Resources for America’s 

Future (USDA Forest Service, 1958) and would set the 

tone for future efforts. There were earlier reports in 

1920, 1932, 1938, and 1945. However, these were based 

significantly on expert opinion and sparse field data. By 

1950, FIA inventories had been completed in 29 States 

containing 72 percent of the forest land in the 48 States. 

Since the initial focus of the inventory was on timber, 

not surprisingly, the 19 missing States were primarily in 

the Great Plains, interior West, and Northeast.

The success of the 1952 Assessment would spark and 

all out effort by the Forest Service to complete an inventory the entire U.S. before a second assessment in 1963. 

The period between 1950 and 1962 would be a golden 

era for forest inventory in the U.S. with FIA completing 

inventories in 45 States containing 97 percent of all forest 

land outside of Alaska and Hawaii. This would include a 

re-inventory of 20 States. Only Nevada and Alaska would 

remain with virtually no FIA data in 1963.

A third national assessment would occur in 1970 before the passage of the Forest and Rangeland Renewable 

Resources Planning Act (RPA) in 1974 which would 

mandate such assessments with reports to Congress 

every 10 years.

The RPA legislation requires the Secretary of 

Agriculture to conduct an assessment of the Nation’s 

renewable resources every 10 years. The original Act 

had four requirements for the Assessment:

an analysis of present and anticipated uses, demand 

for, and supply of the renewable resources,

an inventory,...of present and potential renewable 

resources...

1.

2.

Figure 1. Conceptual framework for achieving the multiple 

goals of environmental monitoring and research.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 227

a description of Forest Service programs and responsibilities...; and

a discussion of important policy considerations, laws, 

regulations, and other factors expected to influence...

forest, range, and other associated lands.

Subsequent amendments to the RPA added two requirements:

an analysis of the potential effects of global climate 

change on the condition of renewable resources...; 

and

an analysis of the rural and urban forestry opportunities 

to mitigate the buildup of atmospheric carbon dioxide 

and reduce the risk of global climate change.

Since the 1930’s FIA has supported many of these 

requirements by providing over 250 Statewide forest 

inventories; eight national assessments (USDA 1958, 

1965, 1973, 1982, Waddell et al. 1989, Faulkner et al. 

1993, Smith et al 2001, Smith et al 2004); two national 

biomass studies (USDA 1981, Cost et al. 1990); three national private forest land ownership studies (Birch 1982, 

1996, Butler 2004 in process); a national satellite forest 

cover map of the U.S. (Zhu and Evans 1994); hundreds 

of primary mill, utilization, and residential fuelwood 

studies (May 1998, Smith 1991); hundreds of reports 

on nontimber issues (Rudis 1991); and online access 

to FIA data at http://fia.fs.fed.us. And, FHM detection 

monitoring plots established in the late 1980’s are now 

fully integrated into the FIA grid in 42 States covering 

83 percent of the Nation’s forests reporting on the health 

of our forests

Other National Reporting 

Activities

FIA is responsible for many periodic reporting 

products associated with status and trends in forested 

ecosystems. The following needs are presently important. 

It is expected that other reporting needs will arise in the 

future. A key attribute of the FIA inventory program is 

that it contains sufficient scope of data to enable response 

to new clients and needs as they arise.

State of the Nation’s Ecosystems Report

This report, developed for the White House Office 

of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) by the 

John Heinz III Center for Science, Economics, and the 

Environment to provide indicators of sustainable forestry. 

Nearly two-thirds of the data for the forestry section of 

the report comes from FIA.

3.

4.

5.

6.

The National Report on Sustainable 

Forests

After the United Nations Conference on Environment 

and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, the 

Working Group on Criteria and Indicators for the 

Conservation and Sustainable Management of Temperate 

and Boreal Forests (“Montreal Process”) was formed 

in Geneva in June 1994 to advance the development 

of internationally agreed upon criteria and indicators 

to monitor sustainable forests. A set of indicators of 

sustainable forests were then set forth in Santiago, 

Chile in February 1995. This set of seven Criteria and 

67 Indicators are known as the “Santiago Declaration” 

(Canadian Forest Service 1995). The first five Criteria 

contain 28 biological indicators. FIA provided critical 

support for 18 of 28 biological indicators to monitor and 

report on U.S. forest sustainability. The U.S. used these 

criteria and indicators to develop a national report on sustainable forests (http://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain).

International Reporting

The FIA responds to many international requests for 

national estimates of status, condition, and trends, in 

America’s forests. Within the last two decades there has 

been an increasing awareness of global forestry issues. 

The Committee on Forestry, FAO has formulated a comprehensive global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) 

program consisting of four components: 1) country 

capacity building, 2) assessments of the multiple benefits of forests, 3) assessment based on existing reliable 

information, and 4) remote sensing survey. The U.S. participated along with 54 other countries in the Temperate 

and Boreal Forest Resource Assessment (United Nations, 

2000) and the Global Forest Resource Assessment 2000 

(http://www.fao.or/forestry).

Conclusion

FIA has evolved over the last 75 years into a premier 

forest monitoring program working with partners and 

clients to continuously improve our product. And, while 

FIA focuses considerable attention on making sure our 

data are compatible across scales and ownerships within 

the U.S., we have not ignore the need to pursue similar 

goals at the international level. Visit FIA’s web site at 

http://www.fia.fs.fed.us for more information or read papers by VanHooser and others (1992) or Gregoire (1992) 

for more on inventory and FIA history in the U.S.
228 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

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Introduction

For several decades, conservationists have given 

considerable attention to riparian ecosystems in the 

southwestern U.S. (Knopf 1988). Riparian corridors 

may be the most biologically diverse habitats on earth 

(Naiman 1993), contributing greatly to the biodiversity of 

the southwestern U.S. deserts (Cartron and others 1999). 

Unfortunately, anthropogenic activities have largely reduced riparian forests from their former extent (Cartron 

and others 2000, Postel 2000) by replacing them with exotic vegetation (Lovich and De Gouvenain 1998, Knopf 

and Olson 1984), altering hydrological regimes (Shafroth 

2002), and grazing (Krueper 1996). Southwestern riparian forests are also experiencing increasing frequency of 

wildfires, considered by many to be a novel and serious 

factor in riparian forest conservation (Bush 1995).

Cottonwood (Populus deltoides) -dominated forests 

(“bosque”) along the Middle Rio Grande were historically shaped by regular flood events. Floods influenced 

river sinuosity, providing safe sites for native vegetation 

regeneration (Whitney 1996). Construction of dams, levees, and irrigation ditches in the early twentieth century 

inhibited regular flooding (Whitney 1996). As a result, 

cottonwood seedling establishment has nearly ceased 

within the bosque (Howe and Knopf 1991). Exotic, less 

flood-dependent vegetation, such as saltcedar or tamarisk (Tamarix ramossisima) has proliferated through the 

understory, out-competing native vegetation (Lovich and 

De Gouvenain 1998, Sher and others 2000).

Unlike flooding, wildfire was not a common disturbance in the Middle Rio Grande Bosque until modern 

times (Bush 1995, Stromberg and others 2002). During 

the last century, conditions within Rio Grande riparian 

forests have become more susceptible to wildfire due 

to increased production of salt cedar and other invasive 

plants (Racher 2003), accumulation of woody debris 

(Bush 1995), and long-term drought (New Mexico 

Drought Planning Team 2003). Riparian wildfires also 

gained public awareness and notoriety when four riparian 

wildfires burned within the city limits of Albuquerque, 

New Mexico during the summers of 2003 and 2004.

The inverse relationship between wildfire and frequency of flooding represents a shift in the disturbance 

regime of the Middle Rio Grande bosque and other 

riparian forests. It is critical that managers understand 

the effects of more fire and less flooding on the plant 

and animal communities inhabiting riparian forests in 

order to conserve southwestern biological diversity. In 

2003, we initiated a study evaluating quality of breeding 

bird habitat resulting from wildfire along the Middle Rio 

Grande. The objectives of the study were to document 

Wildfire, Exotic Vegetation, and Breeding Bird Habitat in 

the Rio Grande Bosque

D. Max Smith, Graduate Student, Department of Zoology, University of Oklahoma and 

Oklahoma Biological Survey, Norman, OK

Jeff F. Kelly, Assistant Professor of Zoology, University of Oklahoma and Heritage Zoologist, 

Oklahoma Biological Survey

Deborah M. Finch, Project Leader, USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—Wildfires in the Middle Rio Grande bosque have likely increased in frequency due to absence of the natural flood regime and current drought conditions. 

Native cottonwoods (Populus spp.) do not tolerate or recover from wildfire as well as 

exotic vegetation, particularly salt cedar, also known as tamarisk (Tamarix spp.). There 

is concern that this change in the primary disturbance process from flood to fire will 

shift vegetative succession away from structurally diverse mesic native communities to 

structurally simple xeric exotic shrub-lands, which provide inferior habitat for ripariandependent animals. In 2003, we initiated a study to evaluate effects of wildfire on quality 

of riparian habitat for birds breeding in the Middle Rio Grande bosque. Our research 

focusing on the effects of wildfire on exotic and native woody plants, arthropods and 

breeding birds will provide managers with information about post-wildfire dynamics of 

riparian vegetation and breeding bird use.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 231

the recovery of native and exotic vegetation following 

fire, identify changes in food resources for birds, and 

compare numbers and success of birds breeding in burned 

and unburned sites.

Methods

A full description of methods is described in our 2003 

Annual Report (USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, and Oklahoma Biological Inventory 

2003). We selected four wildfire sites with nearby controls at Bernardo, Rio Grande Complex, Chavez, and 

San Pedro burns. Starting in 2001, bird point counts, nest 

searches and monitoring of nest contents were conducted 

at three of the burn sites during the bird breeding season. 

In March 2003, a total of 63 nest boxes were distributed 

among three wildfire sites and nearby unburned gallery 

forest. In August 2003, nest boxes were placed at the 

fourth wildfire site, Bernardo, which burned in April 

2003; nest boxes were also placed in adjacent unburned 

forests at this site. Nest boxes were checked regularly to 

determine use. Four arthropod pitfall traps were installed 

around nest boxes in order to quantify availability of food 

resources. Pitfall traps were continuously operated from 

June to August 2003. In addition, 45 cicada (F. Cicadidae) 

traps were established in unburned forests and in wildfire 

areas. To better understand post-fire succession on burned 

plots, native and exotic re-sprouts were tagged in 2003 

and monitored in 2004.

Results

Response of Riparian Vegetation to 

Wildfire

Native riparian vegetation is primarily adapted to 

flood disturbance and is not believed to respond well to 

wildfire. Stuever (1997) found that low intensity fires 

along the Middle Rio Grande killed 50 percent of cottonwood trees. Moderate intensity fires killed 75 percent 

of cottonwoods, and all burned cottonwoods died in 

high intensity fires. In the Middle Rio Grande bosque, 

we observed that native and exotic tree and shrub species can re-sprout from their roots after fires (table 1). 

However, many cottonwood root sprouts do not establish 

following emergence and in some areas, cottonwoods 

do not re-sprout at all (Stromberg and others 2002). At 

one of our study sites, we found 60 percent mortality in 

cottonwood re-sprouts during the first year following a 

wildfire in 2003 (table 2).

Saltcedar and other exotic species may be more fireadapted than native species. Following wildfire, saltcedar 

re-sprouts faster than cottonwood (Stromberg and others 

2002), and these re-sprouts flower in as early as three 

months, while cottonwood re-sprouts take up to eight 

years to flower (Smith pers obs). One hundred percent 

of the saltcedar re-sprouts we marked in 2003 survived 

to 2004. The density of saltcedar foliage was higher at 

more burned sites (3 of 4) than unburned sites (fig. 1). 

These observations suggest that salt cedar may be more 

fire-adapted than cottonwood and can rapidly colonize 

recent burns.

Despite the effective response of saltcedar to wildfire, 

native vegetation persisted in our wildfire study sites. 

Mean height of re-sprouts was greater for cottonwood 

than for saltcedar at sites that burned at least three years 

prior (fig. 2 A-D). We also found evidence that survival 

Table 1. Re-sprouting vegetation monitored in wildfire sites in 

the Middle Rio Grande Bosque (species are listed in order 

of relative abundance).

Native Plant Species

Rio Grande cottonwood (Populus deltoides)

Gooding’s willow (Salix goodingii)

Seepwillow (Baccharis glutinosa)

Coyote willow (Salix exigua)

New Mexico olive (Foresteria neomexicana)

False indigo (Lycium torreyi)

Screwbean mesquite (Prosopis pubescens)

Exotic species

Saltcedar (Tamarix ramosissima)

Russian olive (Eleganus angustifolia)

White mulberry (Morus alba)

Siberian elm (Ulmus pumila)

Tree of Heaven (Ailanthus altissima)

Table 2. Percentage of cottonwood and saltcedar stems that survived between 2003 and 2004 at four 

wildfire sites. Stems were randomly located and marked during the summer of 2003 and re-located 

during the summer of 2004.

2003-2004 2003-2004

Site	 Year of wildfire	 % cottonwood survival	 % saltcedar survival

Bernardo 2003 40% 100%

Chavez 2002 79% 100%

Rio Grande Complex 2000 100% 100%

San Pedro 1996 83% 100%
232 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 1. Saltcedar density at unburned and wildfire sites. 

We counted saltcedar hits against a one inch diameter 

pole at 4 locations within each vegetation sampling unit. 

Sampling units were systematically located within wildfire 

and unburned sites.

Figure 2 (A-D). Growth of cottonwood and saltcedar re-sprout 

stems at three wildfire sites. We randomly located and 

measured the heights of re-sprouted stems in 2003 and 

re-measured them in 2004.

of cottonwood re-sprouts might increase in subsequent 

years following a fire (table 2). We suggest that, where 

some cottonwood trees persist after a wildfire, management to enhance initial cottonwood re-sprouts might 

be effective in inhibiting the spread of monotypic salt 

cedar.

Wildfire, Riparian Areas, and Birds

Riparian forests provide breeding habitat for nearly 

half of the bird species found in the Southwest (Cartron 

and others 1999). Bird diversity has been correlated 

with structural diversity of riparian vegetation and the 

presence of cottonwoods (Carothers 1974). Vegetation 

structure has also been shown to influence nesting success in southwestern riparian forests (Powell and Steidl 

2000). Scott (2003) showed that structural vegetation 

diversity and avian diversity are highest when riparian 

areas experience geomorphic change associated with 

flooding. Little is known about how riparian breeding 

birds respond to replacement of flooding disturbance by 

wildfire because such studies are in their infancy.

The Middle Rio Grande bosque provides habitat for 

birds in a variety of nesting guilds. Higher numbers of 

shrub-associated species and lower numbers of cottonwood-canopy species were detected at point-count 

locations in wildfire sites than in unburned sites (table 

3; for scientific bird names, see Finch and others 2003). 

If post-fire succession results in exotic-dominated shrublands, we hypothesize that populations of widespread, 

shrub-associated species such as mourning doves 

(Zenaida macroura), yellow breasted chats (Icteria 

virens), and spotted towhees (Pipilo maculatus) will 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 233

Table 3. Total and average number (pt. ct. station/5 surveys) of avian species detected at Middle Rio Grande fire effects and 

control sites.*

# of Individuals

Species Burned Control Total Avg./pt - Burned Avg./pt - Control

Canada Goose 3 4 7 0.11 0.25

Wood Duck 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

Gadwall 2 0 2 0.07 0.00

Mallard 46 20 66 1.64 1.25

Northern Pintail 3 2 5 0.11 0.13

Ring-necked Pheasant 43 23 66 1.54 1.44

Gambel’s Quail 7 1 8 0.25 0.06

American White Pelican 3 0 3 0.11 0.00

Great Blue Heron 3 1 4 0.11 0.06

Snowy Egret 9 0 9 0.32 0.00

Black-crowned Night-Heron 4 0 4 0.14 0.00

Turkey Vulture 40 0 40 1.43 0.00

Cooper’s Hawk 7 4 11 0.25 0.25

Swainson’s Hawk 2 1 3 0.07 0.06

Red-tailed Hawk 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

American Kestrel 29 2 31 1.04 0.13

Killdeer 8 0 8 0.29 0.00

Spotted Sandpiper 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

White-winged Dove 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

Mourning Dove 242 79 321 8.64 4.94

Yellow-billed Cuckoo 6 1 7 0.21 0.06

Greater Roadrunner 26 1 27 0.93 0.06

Black-chinned Hummingbird 134 140 274 4.79 8.75

Broad-tailed Hummingbird 4 0 4 0.14 0.00

Rufous Hummingbird 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

Ladder-backed Woodpecker 4 4 8 0.14 0.25

Downy Woodpecker 9 6 15 0.32 0.38

Hairy Woodpecker 12 2 14 0.43 0.13

Northern “Red-shafted” Flicker 38 19 57 1.36 1.19

Western Wood-Pewee 32 25 57 1.14 1.56

Dusky Flycatcher 8 0 8 0.29 0.00

Black Phoebe 2 0 2 0.07 0.00

Ash-throated Flycatcher 88 99 187 3.14 6.19

Western Kingbird 43 2 45 1.54 0.13

“Solitary” Vireo 6 0 6 0.21 0.00

Warbling Vireo 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

American Crow 20 20 40 0.71 1.25

Chihuahuan Raven 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

Common Raven 18 17 35 0.64 1.06

Tree Swallow 8 0 8 0.29 0.00

Violet-green Swallow 1 6 7 0.04 0.38

Northern Rough-winged Swallow 2 1 3 0.07 0.06

Bank Swallow 7 0 7 0.25 0.00

Cliff Swallow 17 3 20 0.61 0.19

Barn Swallow 24 6 30 0.86 0.38

Black-capped Chickadee 12 38 50 0.43 2.38

Bushtit 12 9 21 0.43 0.56

White-breasted Nuthatch 25 38 63 0.89 2.38

Bewick’s Wren 105 85 190 3.75 5.31

House Wren 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

Ruby-crowned Kinglet 5 0 5 0.18 0.00

American Robin 38 2 40 1.36 0.13

Gray Catbird 20 1 21 0.71 0.06

Northern Mockingbird 2 0 2 0.07 0.00

European Starling 16 1 17 0.57 0.06

Phainopepla 2 0 2 0.07 0.00

Orange-crowned Warbler 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

Virginia’s Warbler 2 0 2 0.07 0.00

Lucy’s Warbler 11 12 23 0.39 0.75

Yellow-rumped “Audubon’s” Warbler 8 1 9 0.29 0.06

MacGillivray’s Warbler 1 0 1 0.04 0.00

Common Yellowthroat 43 2 45 1.54 0.13

Wilson’s Warbler 6 0 6 0.21 0.00

Yellow-breasted Chat 220 38 258 7.86 2.38

Summer Tanager 35 46 81 1.25 2.88
234 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Table 3. Continued.

# of Individuals

Species Burned Control Total Avg./pt - Burned Avg./pt - Control

Western Tanager 3 0 3 0.11 0.00

Spotted Towhee 195 88 283 6.96 5.50

Chipping Sparrow 10 0 10 0.36 0.00

Lark Sparrow 7 0 7 0.25 0.00

White-crowned Sparrow 4 0 4 0.14 0.00

Black-headed Grosbeak 115 117 232 4.11 7.31

Blue Grosbeak 133 47 180 4.75 2.94

Lazuli Bunting 6 0 6 0.21 0.00

Indigo Bunting 19 0 19 0.68 0.00

Red-winged Blackbird 117 11 128 4.18 0.69

Western Meadowlark 8 23 31 0.29 1.44

Yellow-headed Blackbird 2 0 2 0.07 0.00

Common Grackle 10 1 11 0.36 0.06

Great-tailed Grackle 20 2 22 0.71 0.13

Brown-headed Cowbird 223 46 269 7.96 2.88

Bullock’s Oriole 12 5 17 0.43 0.31

House Finch 23 3 26 0.82 0.19

American Goldfinch 1 4 5 0.04 0.25

Lesser Goldfinch 28 22 50 1.00 1.38

Guinea Fowl (exotic) 5 11 16 0.18 0.69

Peacock (exotic) 2 2 4 0.07 0.13

Total Individuals 2475 1144 3619 88.39 71.50

Total Species 86 52 86

* For bird scientific names, see Finch and others, 2003.

persist. Low detection rates of cottonwood-associated 

species such as summer tanagers (Piranga rubra) in 

wildfire sites suggest that riparian specialist species may 

decline following fire. Current research on the success 

of individual species nesting in burned and unburned 

sites should provide insight into the suitability of burned 

riparian forests for all breeding birds.

Along with vegetation, arthropod prey is a critical 

component of breeding bird habitat (Sherry and Holmes 

1995). Insectivorous birds depend on riparian habitat more 

than those of other guilds (Knopf and others 1988) possibly 

because of the presence of arthropods (Delay and others 

1999). Due to differences in structure and plant-arthropod 

interactions, exotic and native riparian vegetation support 

different arthropod densities and communities (Delay 

and others 1999, Mund-Meyerson 1991). If wildfire alters 

native and exotic plant densities, it is likely that arthropod communities will be altered as well. To determine 

if wildfire affects breeding bird habitat by altering arthropod abundance, arthropods important to breeding birds 

must be identified and sampled in wildfire sites.

Annual cicadas have been identified as an important resource for breeding birds (Rosenberg and others 

1982). Like its cottonwood hosts, the cicada (Tibicen 

dealbata), is likely adapted to regular flood disturbance 

and not wildfire. This cicada emerges in high densities 

each summer and provides timely food for a variety of 

birds, including the yellow-billed cuckoo (Coccyzus 

americanus), a species whose breeding may be timed to 

take advantage of this resource (Rosenberg and others 

1982). Our research on the effects of wildfire and exotic 

vegetation on the density and phenology of annual cicadas will provide insight into the dependability of this 

resource after wildfire.

Other arthropod groups that warrant research include 

foliage arthropods and litter arthropods. Wildfires often 

result in increased abundance of understory vegetation 

(Stromberg and others 2002). Saltcedar foliage, in particular, increases in density following wildfire (fig. 1). 

New growth after fire may provide additional resources 

for foliage-gleaning birds, depending on the abundance 

and type of arthropods found on re-sprouted stems. In 

2003, we observed more foliage-gleaning bird species 

(6 of 20 observed species) than species of other guilds 

at wildfire sites. Fewer foliage-gleaning species were 

observed at unburned sites than burned sites (fig. 3). We 

found more nests of ground-gleaners (38 of 83 nests) 

than other guilds at wildfire sites. Fewer nests of groundgleaners were found at unburned sites than burned sites 

(fig. 3). Much of the arthropod biomass in riparian forests 

is found in ground litter (Cartron and others 2003), a 

foraging substrate that is drastically reduced following 

wildfires. The cricket, Gryllus alogus, is a detritivore that 

prefers moist leaf litter (Cartron and others 2003) and is 

frequently fed upon by birds during the breeding season 

(Smith pers obs). Gryllus alogus represents a suite of 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 235

Figure 3 (A-D). Comparison of nesting species at fire and control research sites by Foraging Guild.

arthropods whose reduction following wildfires could 

have serious consequences for obligate ground-foragers such as spotted towhees and for generalists such as 

Bewick’s wrens (Thryomanes bewickii), which forage 

frequently on the ground.

Conclusions

Wildfire is becoming a frequent disturbance in the 

Middle Rio Grande Bosque. Riparian trees and shrubs 

are top-killed during fires and forests typically recover by 

re-sprouting rather than by seedling establishment. Our 

data suggest that native vegetation recovers from wildfire 

with varying success between sites. Native re-sprouts 

grew from 2003 to 2004 at burned sites, suggesting that 

native vegetation can survive, at least over the short 

term. Continued monitoring is necessary to determine the 

long-term effects of wildfire on the structure of riparian 

vegetation. The factors that aid the post-fire survival of 

native trees, such as cottonwoods, must be understood 

for managers to ensure the persistence of communities 

tied to this vegetation type. Exotic species, especially 

saltcedar, appear to be fire-adapted; therefore, exotic 

vegetation control, controlled flooding, and pole-plantings may be required to maintain native vegetation at 

sites with low plant survival.

Native vegetation and arthropods are essential habitat 

requirements for the diverse array of birds found in riparian forests. Low post-fire survival of native vegetation 

could result in declines of species such as yellow-billed 

cuckoos and willow flycatchers (Empidonax traillii) 

(Stromberg and other 2002). In this situation, many cosmopolitan species that currently breed in southwestern 
236 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

riparian forests will continue to utilize burned habitat. 

However, the well-known bird diversity of these forests 

is likely to decline with the loss of native trees used by 

canopy-nesting and cavity-nesting species. Further research on the relationships between arthropods, exotic 

vegetation, and wildfire is needed to evaluate the quality 

of post-wildfire habitat for riparian birds. In addition, 

the use of different vegetation types and arthropods by 

various foraging guilds must be monitored to predict longterm consequences of wildfire for insectivorous birds.

Figure 6. Section of Middle Rio Grande Bosque near Los 

Lunas, NM. This Photo was taken three years after the 

fire. Unlike other wildfire sites, this area is dominated by 

native cottonwood and coyote willow re-sprouts. Photo by 

Max Smith.

Figure 4. Section of Middle Rio Grande Bosque near Abeytas, 

NM. This photo was taken four weeks after the fire. Note 

the saltcedar re-sprouts in the foreground. Native vegetation 

has not yet re-sprouted. Photo by Max Smith.

Figure 5. Section of Middle Rio Grande Bosque near Abeytas, 

NM. This photo was taken two years after the fire. The 

understory is dominated by saltcedar re-sprouts while a few 

cottonwoods re-sprouts are present. Photo by Max Smith.

Acknowledgments

We thank Clayton Crowder, June Galloway, Dave 

Hawksworth, Erin Greenlee, and Mike Means for assistance in the field. Geoff Carpenter, Yasmeen Najmi, 

John Taylor, and Sarah Swanson have provided additional 

assistance. Alice Chung-MacCoubrey and Darin Law 

provided peer reviews of the manuscript. Field site access 

was provided by the Middle Rio Grande Conservancy 

District and the Bosque Del National Wildlife Refuge. 

This research was funded by a joint venture agreement 

02-JV-11221602-185 between the USDA Forest Service 

Rocky Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM, 

and the Oklahoma Biological Survey. Additional funding was provided by the George Miksch Sutton Avian 

Research Scholarship awarded by the Sam Noble 

Museum of Natural History, Norman, Oklahoma.

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238 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax 

traillii extimus: SWWF) is a federally-listed endangered 

species that breeds in dense, typically wet riparian 

vegetation in parts of the southwestern United States 

(Sogge and Marshall 2000, USFWS 2002). The fact that 

SWWFs breed in both native and saltcedar (Tamarix 

ramosissima) dominated habitats has generated much 

interest, primarily due to perceived conflicts between the 

control/eradication of saltcedar and the goal of SWWF 

conservation (DeLoach and others 2000). Some (Hunter 

and others 1988) have reported that the value of saltcedar 

as bird habitat varies among bird species and geographic 

regions. Others (DeLoach and others 2000) hypothesized 

that SWWF use of saltcedar is limited, and that flycatchers breeding in saltcedar experience inadequate food 

resources and lowered productivity compared to those 

in native habitats. Therefore, we examined data from 

several large-scale and long-term studies being conducted 

by the U.S. Geological Survey and the Arizona Game 

and Fish Department, in order to better understand the 

extent to which flycatchers breed in saltcedar, and the 

ecological ramifications of their doing so.

Flycatcher Use of Saltcedar: 

Nature, Geography, and 

Extent

Within it range, the SWWF is distributed among 

roughly 150 riparian breeding sites along rivers, streams, 

lakes, and marshes; currently, the known population is 

estimated at just over 1,300 pairs (Sogge and others 2003, 

USGS unpublished data). Based on recent distribution 

data, the breeding range of the SWWF overlaps greatly 

with the core range of saltcedar (fig. 1). Given this spatial overlap, the potential for SWWFs to use saltcedar 

habitats is high.

Some of the first reports of SWWF nesting in saltcedar 

were from New Mexico in the 1970s (Hubbard 1987, S. 

Williams pers. comm.), with a few additional records 

by the late 1980s and early 1990s (for example, Brown 

Saltcedar and Southwestern Willow Flycatchers: Lessons 

From Long-term Studies in Central Arizona

M. K. Sogge and E. H. Paxton, Researchers, U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological 

Science Center, Flagstaff, AZ

April A. Tudor, Biologist, Arizona Game and Fish Department, Nongame and Endangered 

Wildlife Program, Phoenix, AZ

Abstract—The endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Empidonax traillii extimus: 

SWWF) is a riparian-obligate bird that breeds only in dense, typically wet riparian vegetation. Since the mid-1990s, biologists have discovered a substantial number of flycatchers 

breeding in habitat dominated by exotic saltcedar (Tamarix ramossisima) in sites across 

Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada, and Utah. Today, approximately 25 percent of SWWF 

breeding sites, supporting one-third of the roughly 1,300 known flycatcher territories, 

are in saltcedar-dominated sites. A widely held belief is that this saltcedar habitat must 

be sub-optimal for the SWWF. Therefore, studies were conducted to determine if there 

are negative effects to SWWFs breeding in saltcedar. Although diet of flycatchers in native and saltcedar habitats differs, dietary differences are not proof that food resources 

are limiting or insufficient in one habitat compared to the other. Long-term studies of 

flycatcher physiology, immunology, site fidelity, productivity, and survivorship found 

no evidence that nesting in saltcedar-dominated habitat is detrimental to Southwestern 

Willow Flycatchers at breeding sites in central Arizona. It is likely that saltcedar habitats 

vary with respect to suitability for breeding flycatchers across their range, just as do native habitats; therefore, results from a single study or site may not be applicable across 

the ranges of the SWWF or saltcedar. Ultimately, multiple long-term studies over a large 

geographic area must be compared to determine the relative suitability of native and 

saltcedar habitats at the landscape scale.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 239

1988, Maynard 1994). Today, SWWFs are known to 

breed in saltcedar-dominated habitats throughout much 

of the flycatcher’s range (Sogge and others 2003, USGS 

unpublished data, fig. 1), and saltcedar habitats account 

for 25 percent of breeding sites and approximately 30 

percent of known flycatcher territories. Clearly, SWWFs 

use saltcedar extensively.

SWWFs do not breed in all types of saltcedar 

habitats—a fact sometimes presented as evidence that 

saltcedar is “avoided”, or is not as suitable as native habitats (DeLoach and others 2000). However, the same is 

true of native vegetation—not all native riparian habitats 

or patches are used by flycatchers. Flycatchers typically 

breed in only a subset of riparian habitats—whether native or saltcedar dominated (Sogge and Marshall 2000, 

USFWS 2002). In fact, saltcedar vegetation used by 

breeding SWWFs generally has similar structural characteristics to the native habitats in which they breed—dense 

structure, high canopy cover, tall stature, and mesic 

and/or near surface water.

Southwestern Willow 

Flycatcher Site Selection and 

Fidelity

Roosevelt Lake, in central Arizona, currently hosts 

the largest known population of breeding SWWF (USGS 

unpublished data). Here, flycatchers returning each year 

from their wintering grounds have an opportunity to 

choose from a mosaic of riparian habitat types, including 

native and saltcedar dominated. Over the course of our 

1996 to 2004 joint Arizona Game and Fish Department/

U.S. Geological Survey study (for example, Newell and 

others 2003, Smith and others 2004), flycatchers bred in 

native, saltcedar, and mixed habitats. Each year, some 

flycatchers settle into saltcedar patches even though 

potential territory locations are still available in nearby 

native patches (and are later occupied by other flycatchers). This argues against a hypothesis that saltcedar is 

only used when native vegetation is not available.

Figure 1. Distribution of known Southwestern Willow Flycatcher breeding sites (circles), and the core geographic distribution of 

saltcedar (Tamarisk ramossisima) in the Southwest (dashed ellipse). The larger circles are flycatcher breeding sites that are 

dominated by saltcedar vegetation.
240 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

It is commonly assumed that a species can determine 

the suitability of different habitat types, and choose the 

“better” habitat (Wiens 1989). If SWWFs are making 

choices based on suitability of habitat, we would expect 

higher rates of settlement and site fidelity in the “best” 

habitat. Based on capture and re-sighting of banded 

flycatchers (Newell and others 2003), we examined the 

degree to which SWWFs at Roosevelt Lake returned 

each year to the type of habitat in which they bred the 

previous year. From 1996 through 2003, 65 percent of 

returning adults first encountered (and banded) in native 

patches (n = 66) moved in subsequent years to saltcedar 

or mixed patches. However, only 37 percent of returning flycatcher adults first banded in saltcedar habitats (n 

= 152) subsequently moved to other habitat types. This 

pattern does not support a hypothesis that flycatchers 

prefer native habitats (at a local scale), or that saltcedar 

habitat at Roosevelt Lake is of poorer quality than native 

habitat (assuming that flycatchers can accurately perceive 

quality differences).

Ramifications of Saltcedar Use 

by Flycatchers

Clearly, flycatchers often choose to breed in saltcedar 

habitat at Roosevelt Lake. DeLoach and others (2000) 

proposed that flycatchers might use saltcedar even though 

it is a lower quality habitat. Therefore, we examined several lines of evidence to determine if flycatchers choosing 

to breed in saltcedar are suffering negative physiological, 

survivorship, or reproductive consequences.

Flycatcher Diet and Physiology

Drost and others (2001) compared the food habits of 

SWWFs breeding in saltcedar and native (willow, Salix

spp.) habitats, and reported a statistically significant 

difference in diet. This difference has been suggested 

as evidence that flycatcher diet in saltcedar habitat is of 

poorer quality than in native habitat (DeLoach and others 

2000). However, the fact that there is a difference does 

not necessarily equate to “better” or “worse,” in terms 

of diet quality. Indeed, flycatcher diet is highly variable 

overall, with statistically significant differences among 

years, month, sexes, and even ages (Drost and others 

2003, USGS unpublished data).

Physiological studies of blood chemistry provides a 

way to evaluate whether these diet difference actually 

impact SWWFs. Fat storage, blood glucose level, hematocrit, and other measures reflect a bird’s nutritional and 

energetic state, and poor nutritional state or high stress 

can be detected from their immunological condition. A 

recent study of 13 physiological and immunological parameters (Owen and Sogge 2002) found no evidence that 

flycatchers breeding in saltcedar are in poorer physiological condition than those in native habitats. This indicates 

that SWWFs are able to obtain sufficient food in the 

saltcedar habitats studied, and that dietary differences 

do not equate to habitat quality differences.

Flycatcher Productivity and Nest 

Success

DeLoach and others (2000) suggest that, based on 

their assumption that saltcedar habitats are low quality, 

flycatcher nest success and productivity will be lower in 

saltcedar than in native patches. To test this, we calculated 

female productivity (the total number of young fledged 

per female per year) for SWWFs breeding at Roosevelt 

Lake from 2001 to 2003, and found no significant difference in productivity between saltcedar and native habitats 

(T-test, p = 0.37; table 1).

Table 1. Reproductive success and annual survivorship estimates for Southwestern Willow Flycatchers 

breeding in native and saltcedar-dominated habitats at Roosevelt Lake, Arizona. Differences in 

productivity and survivorship are not significant based on T-test (p = 0.37) and confidences interval 

overlap, respectively.

Variable Native Habitat Saltcedar Habitat

Productivity per Mean = 1.2 ± 0.4 (SE) Mean = 1.3 ± 0.3 (SE)

female per year n = 18 females n = 23 females

(2001 – 2003)

Annual survivorship Mean = 0.66 ± 0.05 (SE) Mean = 0.60 ± 0.03 (SE)

probability: adult 95% CI = 0.55 – 0.75 95% CI = 0.54 – 0.67

(1996 – 2003) n = 66 adults n = 152 adults

Annual survivorship probability: Mean = 0.3 ± 0.15 SE Mean = 0.28 ± 0.09 (SE)

nestling to adult 95% CI = 0.11 – 0.64 95% CI = 0.14 – 0.48

(1996 – 2003) n = 25 adults n = 64 adults
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 241

Flycatcher Survivorship

Another way in which saltcedar could prove detrimental to flycatchers is if birds breeding in saltcedar 

suffer reduced survivorship compared to those in native 

habitats. Therefore, we estimated the maximum likelihood survivorship rate of adults and nestlings, using the 

program MARK (White and Burnham 1999), based on 

the return rates of 429 adults and 249 nestlings banded 

from 1996 to 2003 at Roosevelt Lake. Neither juvenile 

not adult survivorship differed significantly between native and saltcedar habitats, with both age groups having 

nearly identical survivorship in both habitats (table 1).

Conclusions

Our studies found no evidence for a negative effect 

of saltcedar on SWWFs breeding at Roosevelt Lake. 

However, saltcedar habitats vary with respect to suitability for breeding flycatchers, just as do native habitats 

(USFWS 2002). Therefore, saltcedar may prove to 

be suitable flycatcher habitat in some areas (such as 

Roosevelt Lake), yet less so or not at all in others - such 

as in portions of the lower Colorado River, where its 

structure and micro-climate conditions may preclude 

flycatcher nesting (DeLoach and others 2000). A similar 

difference in habitat suitability was reported by Hunter 

and others (1988), who found that saltcedar was a relatively unimportant habitat for birds on the lower Colorado 

River, yet consistently among the most important for 

riparian birds (including the Yellow-billed Cuckoo, 

Coccyzus americanus) along the Pecos River, NM.

Ultimately, multiple long-term studies over a large 

geographic area must be compared to determine the 

relative suitability of native and saltcedar habitats at the 

landscape scale. The difference in suitability of saltcedar 

habitats underscores the fact that site-specific details 

and context are important. Therefore, saltcedar control 

and/or riparian restoration efforts should be evaluated on 

a site-specific basis, and pre- and post-action monitoring 

conducted to determine if ecological goals are being met 

(USFWS 2002).

References

Brown, B. T. 1988. Breeding ecology of a Willow Flycatcher 

population in Grand Canyon, Arizona. Western Birds 

19:25-33.

DeLoach, C. J., R. I Carruthers, J. E. Lovich, T. L. Dudley, and 

S. D. Smith. 2000. Ecological interactions in the biological 

control of saltcedar (Tamarix spp.) in the United States: 

toward a new understanding. Pages 819-873 in Spencer, 

N.R. (ed). Proceedings of the X International Symposium 

on Biological Control of Weeds. 4-14 July, Montana State 

University, Bozeman.

Drost, C. D., E. H. Paxton, M. K. Sogge and M. J. Whitfield. 

2001. Food habits of the endangered Southwestern Willow 

Flycatcher. USGS Colorado Plateau Field Station report to 

the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Salt Lake City.

Drost, C. A., E. H. Paxton, M. K. Sogge and M. J. Whitfield. 

2003. Food habits of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher 

at the Kern River, California. Studies in Avian Biology 

26:96-103.

Hubbard, J. P. 1987. The status of the Willow Flycatcher in 

New Mexico. Endangered Species Program, New Mexico 

Department of Game and Fish, Santa Fe, NM.

Hunter, W. C., R. D. Ohmart, and B. W. Anderson. 1988. Use 

of exotic saltcedar (Tamarix chinensis) by birds in arid 

riparian systems. Condor 90:113-123.

Maynard, W. R. 1994. Summary of 1994 survey efforts in 

New Mexico for the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher 

(Empidonax traillii extimus). Report to New Mexico 

Department of Game and Fish, Santa Fe, NM.

Newell, P.J., E.H. Paxton, and M.K. Sogge. 2003. Survivorship 

and movements of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers at 

Roosevelt Lake, Arizona – 2003. U.S. Geological Survey 

report to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Phoenix, AZ.

Owen, J.C. and M.K. Sogge. 2002. Physiological condition 

of Southwestern Willow Flycatchers breeding in native 

and exotic habitats. U.S. Geological Survey report to the 

Arizona Department of Transportation.

Smith, A.B., P.E.T. Dockens, A.A. Tudor, H.C. English, and 

B.L. Allen. 2004. Southwestern Willow Flycatcher 2003 

survey and nest monitoring report. Technical Report 233, 

Nongame and Endangered Wildlife Program, Arizona Game 

and Fish Department, Phoenix, AZ.

Sogge, M.K. and R.M. Marshall. 2000. A Survey of Current 

Breeding habitats. Pages 43-56 in Status, Ecology, and 

Conservation of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher. 

Finch, D.M. and S.H. Stoleson (eds). USDA Forest Service 

Rocky Mountain Research Station General Technical 

Report RMRS-GTR-60.

Sogge, M.K., S.J. Sferra, P. Dockens, S.O. Williams and B.E. 

Kus. 2003. Southwestern Willow Flycatcher breeding site 

and territory summary – 2002. U.S. Geological Survey 

report to the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, Phoenix, AZ.

U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2002. Southwestern Willow 

Flycatcher Final Recovery Plan. US Fish and Wildlife 

Service, Albuquerque, NM.

White, G. S., and K. P. Burnham. 1999. Program MARK: 

survival estimation from populations of marked animals. 

Bird Study 46 (supplement): S120-139.

Wiens, J. 1989. The ecology of bird communities: Volume 1 

– foundations and patterns. Cambridge University Press, 

Cambridge. 539 p.
242 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The era of ecosystem management on federal forest 

lands in the Pacific Northwest and northern California 

began in 1994 with the adoption of the Northwest Forest 

Plan (NWFP) (FEMAT 1993). This plan was the first 

comprehensive regional forest ecosystem plan in the 

world designed to maintain and restore species and 

ecosystems associated with late successional and oldgrowth forests and aquatic ecosystems. Covering over 10 

million ha. of federal lands, the goal of the plan was set 

by then President Clinton who asked a team of scientists 

to develop alternatives that “would attain the greatest 

economic and social contributions from the forest and 

also meet the requirements of applicable [environmental] 

laws and regulations.” The alternatives had to meet the 

following objectives: 1) maintenance and/or restoration 

of habitat conditions for the northern spotted owl and 

marbled murrelets that will provide for viability of each 

species; 2) maintenance and/or restoration of habitat conditions to support viable populations of species known 

to be associated with old-growth forest conditions; 3) 

maintenance and/or restoration of spawning and rearing 

habitat on federal lands to support recovery and maintenance of viable populations of anadromous fish species; 

4) maintenance and/or creation of a connected or interactive old-growth forest ecosystem on federal lands.

The scientists developed nine alternatives and the 

President selected one, option nine, which was almost 

immediately challenged by lawsuits from both timber 

and environmental interests. The lawsuits were not successful and one year later, a federal judge found that the 

NWFP was in compliance with environmental laws but 

he also warned that “monitoring is central to the (NWFP) 

validity. If it is not funded, or done for any reason, the 

plan will have to be reconsidered.” Thus began one of 

Monitoring Late-Successional Forest Biodiversity in the 

Pacific Northwest, U.S.A.

Thomas A. Spies, Research Ecologist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, Corvallis, OR

Jon R. Martin, Monitoring Program Manager, USDA Forest Service, Portland, OR

Abstract—The era of ecosystem management for federal forest lands in the Pacific 

Northwest began in 1994 with the adoption of the Northwest Forest Plan. This plan 

was designed to maintain and restore species and ecosystems associated with late successional and old-growth forests on over 10 million ha. of federal lands in Washington, 

Oregon and California. The plan called for implementation monitoring, effectiveness 

monitoring, and validation monitoring for a variety of ecological and socio-economic 

components. Monitoring has become a central part of management of the federal 

forests in the region and managers and scientists have gained considerable experience 

in implementing this large and complex program. The components of the monitoring 

plan include, late-successional/old growth vegetation, northern spotted owls, marbled 

murrelets, aquatic habitat and social conditions. The monitoring plan is strongly based 

on vegetation layer created with TM satellite imagery and on a regional grid of forest 

inventory plots. The lessons learned from the implementation of this monitoring plan 

include: 1) agencies need to devote considerable resources to insure that effective 

monitoring will occur at broad scales; 2) aggregation of local monitoring efforts is not a 

substitute for a designed regional monitoring plan; 3) vegetation structure and composition, measured with satellite imagery and inventory plots, is a cost effective, broad-scale 

indicator of biological diversity; 4) Some species, such as threatened and endangered 

species, are not necessarily covered with habitat approaches and may require population 

monitoring; 5) our scientific understanding of monitoring components will vary widely 

as will the approaches to data collection and analysis; 6) monitoring requires research 

support to develop and test metrics and biodiversity models; 7) Links of monitoring to 

decision making (adaptive management) are still being forged.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 243

the largest regional forest monitoring programs ever 

attempted.

The plan has been in place for about 10 years now 

and federal managers and scientists have developed and 

implemented a comprehensive monitoring strategy that 

is one of the most comprehensive and largest for any 

region in the world (Mulder and others 1999). The total 

budget for the monitoring program in federal fiscal year 

2003 was over 6 million dollars. We will review the main 

components of the plan and discuss some of the lessons 

learned from the effort to implement the monitoring 

component.

Components of the Plan

The plan contained three major types of monitoring: 

(1) implementation--were the standards and guidelines 

followed?; (2) effectiveness--did the management actions achieve the desired goals?; and (3) validation--are 

the underlying management and scientific assumptions 

correct? These three types of monitoring were applied 

to five components: (1) old-growth ecosystems; (2) the 

northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina); (3) 

marbled murrelet (Brachyrampus marmoratus); (4) 

aquatic ecosystems; (5) socio-economic benefits; and 

(6) tribal relations. Thus, the monitoring plan contained 

both focal species components and whole ecosystems 

components, as well as human dimensions. A critical 

step in the monitoring process was to clearly identify 

expectations under the original plan and use these to 

form questions that focus the collection and analysis of 

data. Coordinated programs were developed for both 

implementation monitoring and effectiveness monitoring. Validation monitoring, which was seen as largely a 

research effort by managers and policy makers, was not 

formally developed into a program. This paper will focus 

on the major components of the effectiveness monitoring 

program and identify some of the lessons learned from 

monitoring in the first decade.

Late-Successional and Old-Growth 

Monitoring

The central component of the monitoring plan is the 

measurement of status and trends in late successional 

(mature and old-growth) and old-growth forests in the 

region (Hemstrom and others 1998). These forests are 

defined ecologically based on a variety of structural and 

compositional elements. For Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga 

menziesii) forests, mature forest conditions begin around 

80 years of age, although there is considerable variation 

in structure among stands with similar ages. Old-growth 

forest structures can be found in Douglas-fir stands 150 

to over 800 years in age (Franklin and others 2002).

These forests are monitored using two methods: (1) 

spatial models developed by the Interagency Vegetation 

Mapping Project (IVMP) using satellite imagery and 

GIS, and (2) a grid of inventory plots spaced every 5.4 km 

on public and private lands. These two different methods 

are complementary. The spatial vegetation models are 

used to estimate spatial distribution and pattern based on 

predictive models of canopy cover, composition (conifer 

vs. hardwood), quadratic mean diameter (QMD) of the 

upper canopy, and canopy heterogeneity (Cohen and 

others 2001). The inventory plots are used to provide 

an estimate of area of forest structure and composition 

with a known degree of statistical reliability. They are 

also used to estimate characteristics of forests that can’t 

be measured with satellite imagery, such as dead wood 

and understory structure and composition. The spatial 

monitoring is intended to be repeated on a 5-10 year 

interval and the inventory grid re-measured on a 10 year 

cycle with a subset measured every year.

Both the spatial and plot-based measurements provide continuous estimate of old forest characteristics. 

Consequently, it is possible to use different definitions 

of older forest, a valuable feature since the definition 

of old growth varies by environment, forest type, and 

interest group. The flexible vegetation layers also make 

it possible to develop custom habitat models for other 

late successional species whose habitat is not well defined by a standard old-growth definition or vegetation 

classification.

Northern Spotted Owl

The northern spotted owl was listed as a threatened 

species in 1990 under the Endangered Species Act of 

1973. The owl, which finds suitable habitat in mature 

and old-growth forests in the region, was listed because 

of extensive losses of its primary habitat throughout its 

range resulting from logging, development, and wildfire. 

The northern spotted owl was central to many of the 

early debates and controversies over logging of mature 

and old-growth Douglas-fir and the NWFP ecosystem 

approach evolved out of single species efforts that focused on the owl.

Effectiveness monitoring of the northern spotted owls 

consists of monitoring populations in eight demographic 

study areas within the NWFP area and monitoring 

spotted owl habitat and dispersal habitat using satellite 

imagery and inventory plots (Lint and others 1999). The 

long-range plan is to reduce the number of relatively expensive demographic monitoring areas and rely more on 

habitat monitoring to predict population dynamics. These 
244 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

predictive models are the subject of ongoing research. 

Early results indicate that reliability of these models 

may not be high enough to reduce or eliminate direct 

population monitoring.

The northern spotted owl provides a lesson on the 

value of monitoring some species populations directly, 

rather than relying only on habitat. Owl populations are 

declining in the northern part of the NWFP area (Joe Lint, 

personal communication) and the cause is hypothesized 

to be competition from the invading, and more aggressive, barred owl (Strix varia), which is spreading into the 

area from Canada. During this same period, very little 

cutting of owl habitat occurred on federal lands.

Marbled Murrelet

The marbled murrelet is a small seabird that forages 

in the near shore environment and nests up to 50 km 

inland, in the NWFP area, on large branches or branch 

fans, which typically occur in large diameter trees. The 

species was federally listed as Threatened in the NWFP 

area in 1992 due to population declines that were attributed to loss of mature and old-growth forests among 

other factors.

The effectiveness monitoring for the murrelet consists 

of at sea population surveys within 8 km of the shore, 

and monitoring of nesting habitat based on the vegetation 

modules described above. Predictive habitat models are 

under development and may be useful to predict murrelet 

use as a function of forest conditions. As in the case of 

the spotted owl, the models are in the research stage.

Aquatic and Riparian Resources

The aquatic conservation strategy was intended to 

conserve and restore processes and habitats that support 

anadromous fish and other aquatic and riparian dependent 

organisms (FEMAT 1993). The monitoring approach is 

based on assessing watershed conditions in 250 randomly 

selected sixth field watersheds (out of a total of 2,600 

watersheds) across the NWFP area (Reeves and others 

2004). Watersheds would be sampled on a 5 year interval with 50 watersheds sampled each year. Information 

collected would include in-channel conditions (for 

example, frequency of pools), vegetation conditions 

from the IVMP vegetation layer, and road densities 

and stream crossings from agency road data bases. The 

aquatic monitoring program intends to develop a series 

of models that predict in-channel conditions as a function of upslope and riparian attributes. If these models 

prove adequate they would allow for the expansion of 

the monitoring effort to wider landscape conditions using 

the IVMP layers and physical GIS layers. The watershed 

scale information is used to assess the condition of a watershed relative to desired conditions that are associated 

with high quality habitat for fish species. These desired 

conditions and watershed quality ratings are developed 

through an expert opinion process that is codified as a 

network of relationships in a computer model.

Social and Economic Benefits

The NWFP was intended to produce social and 

economic benefits in addition to the biodiversity goals. 

This module was developed relatively recently and has 

not been funded at the level of the other modules. It is 

intended to determine if predictable amounts of timber 

and non-timber resources are being produced and to 

determine if local communities and economies are experiencing positive or negative changes associated with 

the NWFP. The monitoring is done through collection 

of data from agency records, community case studies, 

and the literature.

Lessons Learned

Many lessons have been learned from implementing 

this monitoring program. These include:

Monitoring species and ecosystems requires real 

institutional commitments and defined programs 

with individuals and teams who are accountable for 

accomplishing monitoring objectives. Too often monitoring has not been supported with sufficient people 

and resources.

Regional scale questions require a regional-scale 

monitoring program. The federal agencies have 

completed many project and district monitoring efforts in the past but these cannot easily be scaled-up 

because they lack common questions and measures, 

randomly assigned samples, and a coordinated data 

management program.

Use vegetation structure and composition as a common denominator. Practicality and cost effectiveness 

are critical to the success of a monitoring program. It 

is not practical or scientifically feasible to use a species by species approach for hundreds or thousands 

of species. A coarse filter approach, using vegetation 

structure and composition as a surrogate for the bulk 

of species and ecosystem processes, is a good way for 

management agencies to deal efficiently with many 

biodiversity issues.

Monitor focal species. Some species, such as threatened and endangered species, and other species 

with special legal or social values are naturally of 

great interest and are not necessarily covered with 

1.

2.

3.

4.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 245

vegetative approaches. Such species may require 

population monitoring to deal with stressors that are 

not related to habitat characteristics.

The scientific understanding of monitoring components varies widely as will the approach to data 

collection and analysis. Some components such as 

the northern spotted owl have a much more developed 

scientific basis, more focused questions, and a longer 

history of ecological study than others. For example, 

the aquatic and socio-economic components focus on 

whole systems, which are more difficult to define, and 

have a much shorter history of scientific research at 

regional scales. Expert opinion and case studies play 

more of a role in answering monitoring questions for 

less-developed subject areas than in studies of the 

spotted owl and old-forest vegetation.

Research is essential to monitoring but research organizations do not have the mandate and resources to 

implement a large monitoring program. Monitoring 

typically requires research to help develop and test 

indicators, models, and protocols. Research and management should work together to prioritize research 

inputs into monitoring programs. In addition, monitoring really needs to be integrated into management 

and the best way for that to happen is for managers 

to do the monitoring.

Links of monitoring to decision-making (adaptive 

management) are still being forged. Monitoring is 

not just data collection for data collection sake—the 

questions “what information do you need?” and “what 

are you going to do with it?” are central. Monitoring 

needs to focus on a set of management-related questions and be linked to decision-making. The linkage of 

monitoring to decision-making has not happened yet. 

The NWFP, which was intended as a 100 year plan, 

is only 10 years old and we have not yet learned how 

information from monitoring will find its way into 

decision-making and plan revisions. Many factors 

5.

6.

7.

influence a policy maker’s decision. The true measure 

of success is that the decisions of policy makers will 

be informed by monitoring.

References

Cohen, W. B., T. K. Maiersperger, T. A. Spies, and D. R. Oetter. 

2001. Modelling forest cover attributes as continuous 

variables in a regional context with Thematic Mapper data. 

International Journal of Remote Sensing 22:2279-2310.

FEMAT. 1993. Forest ecosystem management: an ecological, 

economic, and social assessment Report of the Forest 

Ecosystem Management Assessment Team, July 1993. U. 

S. Government Printing Office.

Franklin, J. F., T. A. Spies, R. Van Pelt, A. B. Carey, D. A. 

Thornburgh, B. D. R., D. B. Lindenmayer, M. E. Harmon, 

W. S. Keeton, D. C. Shaw, K. Bible, and J. Chen. 2002. 

Disturbances and structural development of natural 

forest ecosystems with silvicultural implications, using 

Douglas-fir as an example. Forest Ecology and Management 

155:399-423.

Hemstrom, M. A., T. Spies, C. Palmer, R. Kiester, J. Teply, P. 

McDonald, and R. Warbington. 1998. Late-successional 

and Old-growth Forest Effectiveness Monitoring for the 

Northwest Forest Plan. USDA Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station, Portland, Oregon.

Lint, J., B. Noon, R. Anthony, E. Forsman, M. Raphael, M. 

Collopy, and E. Starkey. 1999. Northern spotted owl effectiveness monitoring plan for the Northwest Forest Plan. 

PNW-GTR-440, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station, Portland, OR.

Mulder, B. S., B. R. Noon, T. A. Spies, M. G. Raphael, C. J. 

Palmer, A. R. Olsen, G. H. Reeves, and H. H. Welsh. 1999. 

The strategy and design of the effectiveness monitoring 

program for the Northwest Forest Plan. PNW-GTR-437, 

USDA, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 

Portland, Oregon.

Reeves, G. H., D. B. Holer, D. P. Larsen, D. E. Busch, T. Kratz, 

K. Reynolds, S. K. F., T. Atzet, P. Hays, and M. Tehan. 

2004. Effectiveness monitoring for the aquatic and riparian component of the Northwest Forest Plan: conceptual 

framework and options. PNW-GTR-577, USDA, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.
246 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The conservation of biodiversity has become an 

important component of sustainable resource management. The Canadian Council of Forest Ministers (CCFM 

2003) and various forest certification organizations such 

as the Canadian Standards Association (CSA 2002) 

have included the conservation of biodiversity in their 

definitions of sustainable forest management. The forest 

industry in many parts of Canada, including Alberta, are 

moving from sustained yield systems in which wood fibre 

volumes are maximized, to sustainable forest management systems in which a range of forest values, including 

biodiversity, are co-managed for sustainability.

Any management system, including forest management, requires monitoring to ensure that desired 

outcomes are achieved. In this paper, we discuss the 

linkage between sustainable forest management planning and monitoring using Alberta as a case study. This 

case study will highlight the system of operational forest 

planning in Alberta and its potential linkage with the 

Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program (ABMP). The 

challenges of integrating forest planning and biodiversity 

monitoring systems will then be discussed.

Context

Alberta is a diverse province ecologically and includes 

Canadian Shield, Boreal Forest, Parkland, Foothills, 

Rocky Mountain, and Grassland natural regions (fig. 1). 

This natural diversity supports a wide variety of life and 

provides internationally significant habitats for migratory birds and large mammals such as grizzly bear and 

Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program—Monitoring 

Effectiveness of Sustainable Forest Management Planning

J. John Stadt, Forest Ecologist, Forest Management Branch, Alberta Sustainable Resource 

Development, Edmonton AB T5K 2M4 Canada

Jim Schieck, Research Ecologist, Integrated Resource Management, Alberta Research 

Council, Vegreville AB T9C 1T4 Canada

Harry Stelfox, Senior Manager Intergovernmental Relations and Resource Policy, Policy and 

Planning, Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, Edmonton AB T5K 2G8 Canada

Abstract—The Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program is a rigorous science-based 

initiative that is being developed to monitor and report on biodiversity status and 

trends throughout the province of Alberta, Canada. Forest management plans in Alberta 

are required to monitor and report on the achievement of stated sustainable forest 

management objectives; however, the effectiveness of these objectives in maintaining biodiversity is not directly addressed in this operational monitoring. The Alberta 

Biodiversity Monitoring Program will provide this effectiveness function at provincial 

and regional scales, supporting the ongoing assessment and revision of resource management objectives in an adaptive management process.

The basic survey design consists of 1650 sites, 20 km apart, evenly spaced on a grid 

pattern across Alberta. Sites will be sampled over a five-year period at a rate of 350 

sites/year. Standardized sampling protocols will be used to cover a broad range of 

species and habitat elements within terrestrial and aquatic environments, as well as 

broader landscape-level features. The ABMP will have a 90 percent power to detect a 

3-percent yearly change within a region after three visits to a site.

In addition to forest management, the petroleum and agriculture sectors also have significant influences on biodiversity in Alberta ecosystems. Planning regimes vary widely 

among these sectors creating a significant challenge in managing their cumulative effects 

on biodiversity. The ABMP is designed to provide a comprehensive monitoring system 

that will detect changes to biodiversity, act as an early warning system, and help Albertans 

and various resource sectors make improvements to their management practices.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 247

caribou. Species rare in Canada are seen in the northern 

reaches of the Missouri watershed. This diversity is part 

of the “natural capital” that has attracted many people to 

this part of the world. A growing human population has 

resulted in significant changes to these ecosystems over 

the last 100 years. The Grassland and Parkland natural 

regions have been heavily influenced by agriculture 

and settlement. The Boreal Forest, Parkland and Rocky 

Mountain natural regions are experiencing extensive 

development of their forestry resources. The oil and 

gas industry is the economic driver of Alberta and is a 

significant factor in all natural regions in the province. 

Impacts result from seismic exploration programs, the 

development of road, wellhead, and pipeline networks, 

and large oil-sand projects. The pace of oil and gas developments is expected to continue, if not increase, as 

these resources become more valuable on world markets 

and new extraction technologies are introduced to access previously inaccessible reserves such as coal bed 

methane and deep tar sand deposits.

This increasing human intervention in these natural 

regions has led to more scrutiny over how we manage our 

natural resources. As a society, we want to benefit economically from these natural resources but also realize 

that maintaining a healthy society requires maintaining 

healthy ecosystems. Biodiversity is one important measure and component of healthy ecosystems and therefore 

managing for biodiversity is crucial to meeting the wide 

range of human needs and aspirations.

The discussion of how biodiversity can be conserved 

begins with a look at forest management planning in 

Alberta. While forestry is only one human activity affecting biodiversity, operational forest planning provides 

an example of one of the required components of biodiversity conservation. The ABMP is then highlighted as 

the effectiveness-monitoring component of biodiversity 

conservation assessing forest management impacts in 

the larger context of the full suite of human and natural 

impacts on the landscape.

Forest Management Planning 

in Alberta

Before describing forest management in Alberta, it 

must be acknowledged that forest management does not 

equal landscape or ecosystem management. As noted 

above, forestry is only one player on the landscape and 

operates in a context that includes oil and gas, agriculture, and human settlement. True ecosystem management 

requires a strategic planning framework in which society 

sets landscape and even region-wide objectives so that 

tradeoffs can be made to balance environmental, social, 

and economic values. Strategic planning is a crucial part 

of management for the conservation of biodiversity (fig. 

2); however, the focus in this paper will be on forest 

management planning and its linkage to biodiversity.

Most of the actively managed forests in Alberta are 

on crown land and the primary land manager is therefore 

the Government of Alberta. Through Forest Management 

Agreements (FMAs), the Government of Alberta has 

authorized forest companies to manage fibre production 

in these forests in a manner that maintains other values 

including biodiversity. The Government of Alberta, 

through newly proposed forest planning standards, will 

be providing FMA holders with its expectations for 

sustainable forest management. The standards place a 

strong emphasis on forest management by well-defined 

objectives and measurable results, with a reduced reliance on regulatory constraints. Forest management 

plans will include the statement of values, objectives, 

indicators, and targets (table 1). Standards for establishing biodiversity objectives are included in the proposed 

forest planning policy (table 2). In order to be able to set 

values, objectives, indicators and targets that will contribute meaningfully to the conservation of biodiversity, 

an understanding is needed of what we want forests of 

the future to look like. This requires an understanding of 

forest dynamics, such as the natural disturbance regime, 

as well as an understanding of what forest attributes are 

Figure 1. Natural regions of Alberta, Canada.
248 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

required to maintain the full suite of forest biodiversity. 

Scientific research that links a fundamental understanding of forest ecosystems to practical cause-and-effect 

relationships is therefore crucial for developing objective-based sustainable forest management plans (fig. 

2).

Table 1. Forest Planning Manual Values, Objectives, Indicators 

and Targets.

Values Forest area quality considered important

Objectives Broad statement describing desired future 

condition or state of a value

Indicators Variable describing state or condition of a 

value

Targets Specific statement describing future state or 

condition of value, quantified if possible

Figure 2. Forest resource planning cycle as it relates to the conservation of biodiversity including operational planning, 

operational monitoring, biodiversity effectiveness monitoring, and research.

Monitoring and Forest 

Management

Monitoring is an integral and necessary component 

of any plan and sustainable forest management plans 

are no different. Alberta’s forest planning guidelines 

require reporting on the achievement of all objectives in 

5-year stewardship reports. This operational monitoring 

assesses the success in achieving the targets set for each 

objective. Adjustments to operations can then be made 

if it is demonstrated that current management activities 

are not achieving certain targets (fig. 2). Operational 

monitoring will sometimes also trigger a re-assessment 

of the objectives themselves if it becomes apparent that 

it is impossible to achieve certain objectives because of 

unforeseen factors, factors not under the control of the 

forest manager, or because some of the objectives prove 

to be mutually incompatible.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 249

Operational monitoring cannot determine the effectiveness of a forest management plan’s objectives in 

achieving the broader value of biodiversity conservation. 

This is a crucial issue in sustainable forest management 

as it is entirely possible to have successfully achieved all 

the forest management objectives related to biodiversity 

and still not be conserving biodiversity at all. How is this 

possible? One reason may be that the objectives, with 

their indicators and targets, did not address the full requirements for biodiversity, either because they failed to 

address certain necessary attributes (missing objectives) 

or because they did not provide enough of the required 

attribute (target inadequate). The other possibility is that 

factors not under the control of forest management practices, and therefore not addressed in forest management 

plans, are impacting biodiversity. These other factors 

are diverse and include the impact of other industries on 

the landscape (for example, seismic lines created by oil 

and gas), impacts in other jurisdictions outside the forest 

management area (for example, pesticide use or habitat 

loss in migratory bird wintering areas), or the effects of 

natural variability and climate change on species and 

their habitats.

For these reasons it is clear that operational monitoring 

is not enough. Biodiversity must be directly measured. 

This requires a comprehensive monitoring program in 

Table 2. Proposed Alberta forest planning standards for conservation of biodiversity objectives in forest management plans.

Element Value Objective Indicator

Ecosystem Diversity Landscape Scale biodiversity Seral Stage and cover type Area of old, mature and young 

forest

Fragmentation Patch size distribution of harvest 

openings

Area of old interior forest

Access Open forestry road density

Uncommon plant communities Area/occurrence of community

Burned and windthrow habitats Area of unsalvaged burned or 

windthrow forest

Riparian areas Application of required buffers

Stand scale biodiversity Stand level structure Volume/area of standing 

merchantable trees

Volume of downed woody 

material

Sensitive sites Number or percentage 

maintained

Water crossings Strategy to minimize

Compliance with crossing 

regulations

Species Diversity Viable populations of Species habitat or populations Habitat area or number of 

identified species individuals

Genetic Diversity Tree genetic diversity Wild populations of each Number and area of tree genetic 

species (in situ) conservation areas

Ex situ conservation of tree Number of provenance and

genetic resources genetic lines in ex situ gene 

banks and trials

which significant trends in biodiversity can be detected. 

A biodiversity monitoring program would simply show 

what is happening; it would not be expected to make 

cause-and-effect conclusions (fig. 3). Such conclusions 

could only be made through research in which specific 

cause-and-effect hypotheses are tested. These hypotheses 

could very well be suggested or inferred by the trend data 

collected by a biodiversity monitoring program.

In this way a carefully designed biodiversity monitoring program can complete the planning cycle by 

providing inputs to research which in turn allows planners to set objectives to manage toward a future forest 

that meets desired values (fig. 2).

Alberta Biodiversity 

Monitoring Program

ABMP (Shank and others 2002) is designed to be 

a comprehensive, long-term monitoring program that 

will directly measure status and trends of biodiversity 

in Alberta, within the context of multiple resource developments across the province. The program objectives 

are as follows

to develop and implement a scientifically credible, 

long-term biodiversity monitoring program,

1.
250 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to measure status, differences, and temporal changes 

in selected measures of biodiversity, habitat, and anthropogenic disturbances at provincial and regional 

scales, and

to provide access to primary data and summary information reports. The ABMP has three phases. Phase 

1, completed in 2002, developed the technical design 

of the program. Phase 2, currently underway and 

scheduled for completion in 2006, is the prototype 

testing phase in which the data collection protocols 

will be refined and the data management and reporting systems developed and tested. Phase 3, scheduled 

to begin in 2007, is the implementation of the full 

program across the province.

Survey Design

Before the design of the ABMP is described, it is 

important to understand the difference between a monitoring program and a research study. In environmental 

research, the objective is to develop a generalization 

about the way nature functions. Cause-and-effect relationships can be determined through hypothesis testing 

in which all factors are controlled for other than the one 

under consideration. In environmental monitoring, the 

objective is to determine if some characteristic of nature 

has changed in a significant way over time at a particular 

place or region. The primary purpose of monitoring is not 

to determine why the change occurred. There is no attempt to control for, or necessarily even to understand, the 

spectrum of causal factors. No generalization is possible 

outside the area being monitored; a statement is simply 

made about what has happened within that area. This 

allows monitoring to be independent of assumptions of 

2.

3.

cause-and-effect relationships and to detect unanticipated 

changes (Shank and others 2002). Later in this paper the 

synergistic relationship between monitoring and research 

will be described.

The ABMP survey design is a systematic placement of 

permanent survey locations on a 20-km grid across the 

whole province of Alberta resulting in about 1650 sites 

(fig. 4, see http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca for full documentation). The sampling return interval is five years with 350 

sites sampled yearly. This survey pattern and intensity is 

designed to detect a change in measured attributes of at 

least 3-percent per year after three visits to a site (Shank 

and others 2002).

The systematic distribution of sampling sites is an 

important feature of the ABMP. Alternative sampling 

regimes include random and stratified networks of sampling sites. However, random site locations were not 

deemed appropriate for long-term monitoring as concentrations of sites in certain locations of the study area 

can result in other areas being undersampled. Although 

stratifying locations based on some pre-determined spatial criteria avoids this problem, other issues then arise. 

Stratification of locations is inappropriate for long-term 

monitoring programs such as ABMP because it requires 

an initial determination of what spatial stratification 

criteria is most important and this determination will 

bias the data collected. The boundaries of any zoning 

framework used to stratify sampling effort are expected 

to change over the multiple decades that the ABMP is 

expected to run. Only a systematic system of sampling 

removes the bias inherent with stratified sampling while 

providing flexibility to address questions not anticipated 

today (Shank and others 2002).

Figure 3. Scope of analysis and 

interpretation of the Alberta 

Biodiversity Monitoring Program 

and its relationship with research.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 251

Development of the ABMP sampling protocols 

focused on the question of “how does one measure biodiversity?” It is obviously impossible to measure all the 

attributes of ecosystem, species, and genetic diversity that 

comprise biodiversity. Therefore, the first task of protocol 

development involved selecting a suite of ecosystem and 

species attributes that would provide a reasonable measure of biodiversity in a cost-effective manner. Separate 

protocols were developed for terrestrial and aquatic 

habitats. The protocol to be used at a site depends on 

local site characteristics. A remote sensing protocol was 

developed to provide a picture of the landscape attributes 

around each site.

Figure 4. Systematic 20-km grid layout of sampling locations 

in the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program. Boundaries 

denote Alberta natural regions shown on figure 1.

The terrestrial and aquatic protocols require the collection of both ecosystem and species attributes (table 3, 

fig. 5). The selection of these attributes and species was 

based on their having a high probability of responding 

to human disturbances. Some biodiversity monitoring 

programs select a number of “indicator species” or “key 

habitat types” to reduce sampling cost and assume that 

changes detected are indicative of changes in a broad 

spectrum of species. The ABMP has taken a different 

approach and instead monitors a large number of species 

from a wide range of taxonomic and functional groups 

(table 3). This approach was taken to increase the ability 

to detect a change that may affect only some species. 

This approach also limits the need to make a priori assumptions of how systems will respond to environmental 

change and therefore increases the long-term resilience of 

the program to monitor and detect unanticipated events 

and responses.

The remote sensing protocol will use satellite imagery 

to document status and change in the aerial extent of 

land cover types at regional and provincial scales. This 

protocol will also document landscape scale changes in 

landscape structure to provide a context for interpreting biodiversity data at each site. Large extent imagery 

(30-1000 m resolution) covering the entire province will 

be used to monitor broad landscape patterns. Elements 

monitored here include the area of major land cover 

types, percentage of forest as coniferous, deciduous and 

mixedwood, and large human and natural disturbances. 

Medium extent imagery (1-5 m resolution) centred on 

each sample site with a 1% provincial coverage will 

be used to detect smaller scale attributes such as vegetation patches down to 0.1 ha, species composition of 

vegetation patches, and small human disturbances such 

as seismic lines.

Data Assessment and Interpretation

The large amount of point and map data generated 

by the ABMP will be stored in a data management 

system designed to provide long-term data security 

while facilitating easy access by many groups. A secure, 

internet-based, interactive interface is being developed 

to allow external users access to data and summary information that they require.

Data analysis procedures are currently being developed 

that will be used to provide management insights that are 

not obvious within the raw data. For each biotic group, 

habitat, or landscape metric monitored by the ABMP, 

researchers are designing analyses that are effective at 

detecting change over time and describing differences in 

biodiversity status between geographic areas.

A critical component of making ABMP data useful to a wide audience will be the delivery of quality 
252 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

information products at regular intervals. The following 

baseline products will be created:

Summaries of data collected and archived during the 

year.

Annual reports reviewing program performance 

measures.

Five-year reports providing interpretation of, and 

trends in, biodiversity status.

Data summaries and five-year reports provide a way to 

report biodiversity stewardship for both researchers and 

the general public. In this way the ABMP contributes to 

the public accountability of natural resource managers.

Integration of ABMP into 

Natural Resource Management

The ABMP is designed to monitor status and trends in 

biodiversity but does not indicate what causal agents are 

affecting biodiversity (fig. 3). However, the biodiversity 

data produced in the ABMP will be correlated to both 

stand- and landscape-scale attributes that may suggest 

possible cause-and-effect relationships. These correlations can then provide the basis for generating hypotheses 

•

•

•

that can be tested in scientific research programs. The 

result of this linkage between monitoring and research 

is a more effective way of focusing limited research resources to questions of real significance to biodiversity 

conservation (fig. 2). Knowing what questions to ask will 

make research more relevant. The knowledge generated 

from more focused research will allow strategic and 

operational planners to develop and refine objectives 

related to the conservation of biodiversity.

Once cause and effect relationships between human 

actions and biodiversity are more clearly understood, the 

ABMP will be able to provide more direct effectiveness 

monitoring of the success of operational plans in achieving conservation of biodiversity objectives.

Conclusion

The ABMP’s systematic sampling design, and its 

direct approach to measuring biodiversity without a 

priori assumptions, makes it resilient to unanticipated 

developments and relevant to planning at both strategic 

and operational scales. Forest managers will be able 

to set conservation of biodiversity objectives based on 

scientific research, which in turn has been directed by a 

Table 3. Summary of terrestrial and aquatic field sampling protocols in the Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program.

Protocol Description

Terrestrial Sites

Species Protocols Low vegetation Plots

Tall shrubs and saplings Transects

Trees Plots

Terrestrial arthropods Pan and Lindgren traps

Breeding birds Point counts

Winter birds Point counts and playbacks

Snow tracking Transect

Rare and elusive biota Transects, plots

Tree genetic material Leaf and needle material

Habitat Protocols Habitat structure Slope, elevation, drainage, vegetation type, phenology, site 

origin, photographs

Soil carbon Pits

Down deadwood material Transects

Tree canopy cover Spherical densiometer readings

Aquatic Sites

Species Protocols Phytoplankton Euphotic zone (standing water)

Zooplankton Water column (standing water)

Benthic algae Scrape sample (flowing water)

Benthic macroinvertebrates Corer/grab (standing and flowing water)

Fish Gill net (standing water)

Electrofishing (flowing water)

Habitat Protocols Water physiochemistry pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, conductivity, light 

attenuation, nutrient characteristics, depth (standing 

and flowing water), velocity (flowing water)

Basin/channel characteristics Surface water width, area, shape (standing and flowing 

water)

Substrate composition (standing and flowing water)

Dead wood (flowing water)
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 253

Figure 5. Terrestrial field sampling layout protocols for overstorey and understorey vegetation and for mammals and birds. 

The three layouts shown above are centred on the same point and therefore would be superimposed in the field.

greater understanding of the status and trends in biodiversity. Effectiveness monitoring will also now complement 

operational monitoring of these objectives.

The establishment of measurable biodiversity objectives required by Alberta’s proposed forest planning 

standards and the effectiveness monitoring function provided by the ABMP are key links in the forest planning 

cycle and will therefore contribute to the ultimate goal 

of conserving biodiversity in Alberta’s forests.

References

Alberta Biodiversity Monitoring Program website: http://

www.abmp.arc.ab.ca Last accessed: August 10, 2004.

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2003. Defining 

sustainable forest management in Canada: Criteria and 

Indicators 2003. CCFM Criteria and Indicators Secretariat; 

Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service. 

Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Available: http://www.ccfm.

org/2000pdf/CI_Booklet_e.pdf Last accessed: August 

18, 2004.Canadian Standards Association (CSA). 2002. 

Z809-02- Sustainable forest management: requirements and 

guidance. Canadian Standards Association. Mississauga, 

Ontario, Canada. Available: http://www.csa-international.

org/product_areas/forest_products_marking/program_documents/Z809-02july.pdf Last accessed August 18, 2004.

Shank, C., J. Schieck and D. Farr. 2002. The Alberta Forest 

Biodiversity Monitoring Program: Technical integration. 

Available: http://www.abmp.arc.ab.ca/Documents.htm Last 

accessed: August 10, 2004.
254 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

In the spring of 2002, the New Mexico State Legislature 

appropriated $5 million for Phreatophyte control along 

the Rio Grande and Pecos Rivers in New Mexico. Again, 

in the spring of 2003, the New Mexico State Legislature 

appropriated another $1.2 million for this project. These 

funds were directed to the Soil & Water Conservation 

Districts along the Rio Grande and Pecos Rivers with the 

following provisions: development of management and 

native vegetation restoration plans, conducting hearings 

within the local conservation districts to receive public 

input, carrying out aerial spraying only by helicopter or 

ground application with prior public notice, monitoring 

and evaluating the effects of control on wildlife, water 

quality, vegetation, and soil health, and if control affects 

threatened or endangered species, the projects proponents 

will take action to ensure compliance with applicable 

federal law and conformance to any duly enacted recovery 

plan. The Lower Rio Grande Salt Cedar Control Project 

encompasses the Rio Grande River from the Northern 

Socorro/Valencia County line to the US/Mexico border. 

There are four Soil & Water Conservation Districts 

involved in the Lower Rio Grande Salt Cedar Control 

Project-Socorro, Sierra, Caballo, and La Union.

Within the project boundaries, there are tens of thousands of acres of monotypic Salt cedar and thousands of 

acres of Salt cedar understory beneath cottonwood/willow stands. The proponents of this project chose these 

large monotypic stands of Salt cedar as the treatment 

priority. These areas for treatment were chosen for the 

following reasons: the fire danger that large monotypic 

stands pose and the cost of treatment of these large stands. 

The areas that we treated ranged from 2,000 to 7,000 

stems of Salt cedar per acre.

The primary concern and largest obstacle to overcome 

with this project was the presence of the endangered bird 

species the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher. This bird 

is now nesting in Salt cedar. We had to ensure that these 

nesting sites and habitat of the Southwestern Willow 

Flycatcher would not be destroyed or degraded. We 

worked with Ecological Services of the U.S. Fish & 

Wildlife Service to determine a suitable buffer zone for 

the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher.

Aerial Treatment of Salt Cedar Within Threatened and 

Endangered Species Habitat—A Success Story

Nyleen H. Troxel Stowe, Director of Special Projects, Program Manager, Socorro Soil & 

Water Conservation District, Socorro County Noxious Weed Coordinator, Socorro, NM

Abstract—The Lower Rio Grande Salt Cedar Control Project treated 7,648 acres of 

monotypic Tamarisk (Salt cedar) in riparian areas along the Rio Grande in Socorro, 

Sierra, and Dona Ana Counties in New Mexico. We contracted North Star Helicopters, 

Inc. to do aerial treatment of these Salt cedar stands. The biggest issue in doing this 

treatment was the presence of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher, an endangered 

bird species that is now nesting in Salt cedar. For this project to be undertaken, we had 

to ensure the USFWS that no treatment would occur within the 1⁄4-mile buffer radius 

of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher’s nesting sites. We had ESRI (Environmental 

Systems Research Institute, Inc.) shape files of the nesting sites with the 1⁄4-mile buffer. 

These files were uploaded into the on-board Trimble GPS units on the helicopters and 

marked as exclusion zones. The spray pump could not be activated when the helicopter 

was within this zone. The on-board GPS units also had real-time differential correction. 

ESRI shape files of the areas to be treated were loaded into the GPS units. When the 

helicopter was within the boundaries of these files, the spray pump could be activated. 

When outside of these boundaries, the spray pump could not be activated. This project 

was very successful. It was done with several constraints such as the exclusion zones, 

and the time period allotted for treatment. Current technology allows us to do accurate 

and safe treatment.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 255

Salt Cedar Control—The First 

Step

Our first step in restoring the riparian native vegetation 

along the lower Rio Grande River was the treatment of 

the large monotypic stands of Salt cedar. This was done 

by aerial application of the herbicide Arsenal (BASF) 

from a helicopter. Arsenal is an amino acid synthesis 

inhibitor of the Imidazolinone family. The chemical in 

Arsenal is Imazapyr which inhibits the production of the 

enzyme AHAS (Acetohydroxy acid synthase). AHAS 

is found only in plants and it converts three key amino 

acids that are only found in plants (Zaliene, Leucine, 

and Isoleucine) into protein so that the plant can grow. 

When this enzyme is inhibited, the plant is then unable 

to grow and eventually uses up all of its carbohydrates. 

Imazapyr does not harm vertebrate or invertebrate 

animal life. Imazapyr also dissipates quickly in the 

environment, particularly in water. The Socorro Soil & 

Water Conservation District contracted with North Star 

Helicopters, Inc. for this aerial application. The contract 

was awarded to North Star Helicopters, Inc. because 

they had the capability of taking ESRI (Environmental 

Systems Research Institute) shape files and uploading 

them into the on-board GPS (Global Positioning System) 

units on the helicopters. ESRI shape files of the known 

nesting sites of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher with 

the 1⁄4-mile buffer zone were loaded into these GPS units 

and marked as exclusion zones.

The areas to be treated were also GPSed using a hand 

held Trimble III GPS unit. These shape files were differentially corrected and loaded into the helicopter’s GPS 

units. The helicopters had real-time correction. When the 

helicopter flew into the area that was designated to spray, 

the GPS unit would allow the helicopter’s spray pump 

to be turned on and thus allowing the pilot control only 

within the designated boundaries. This was accomplished 

by creating a prescription file for the onboard GPS for 

the area to be treated that only allowed the spray to 

be turned on when within this boundary file. The two 

helicopters detailed to this project were wired to have 

automatic shutoff of the spray system when the 1⁄4-mile 

buffer zone around these sites was reached. This helped 

assure that the application would not be turned on over 

the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher areas. This was the 

first practical application using this technique by North 

Star Helicopters, Inc; all previous applications were only 

for the use of testing the system. Not all GPS units have 

this ability, although they could have similar features, but 

the pilot could override the feature without even realizing 

that he was doing so. To ensure that the pilot could not 

override this feature by accident, North Star Helicopters, 

Inc. placed the override switch in a hard to reach area of 

the control panel. This extra feature provided by North 

Star Helicopters, Inc. allowed for an extremely successful treatment program in the Lower Rio Grande Salt 

Cedar Control Project area. A total of 436 acres of Salt 

cedar were effectively treated on the Sevilleta National 

Wildlife Refuge around the nesting sites and territories of 

the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher. Another 800 acres 

of private land were treated next to the Southwestern 

Willow Flycatcher nesting sites.

The aerial application began on September 5, 2003 

on the Rio Salado, a major tributary to the Rio Grande. 

Aerial application concluded on September 23, 2003 near 

Rincon in Dona Ana County. North Star Helicopters, Inc 

treated a total of 7,648 acres of Salt cedar aerially with 

the use of two helicopters. Nine hundred forty-one acres 

of Salt cedar on the Rio Salado were treated in partnership with the Bureau of Land Management-Socorro Field 

Office. They funded this in the amount of $152,200 and 

70 gallons of the herbicide Arsenal. Also in partnership 

with the Bureau of Land Management-Albuquerque Field 

Office and the Cuba SWCD, another 262 acres of Salt 

cedar were treated near Cuba, New Mexico. The Bureau 

of Land Management-Albuquerque Field Office funded 

this in the amount of $50,000. Twelve hundred acres of 

Salt cedar were treated on the USFWS-Sevilleta National 

Wildlife Refuge. Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge 

funded this project in the amount of $140,000. Twelve 

hundred forty-six acres of Salt cedar were treated around 

Elephant Butte for the Bureau of Reclamation. Sixty 

acres were treated for the City of Truth or Consequences 

in Cuchillo Negro Dam. Three thousand nine hundred 

ninety-eight acres of Salt cedar were treated on private 

land.

There were no measurements of Arsenal deposition 

within the 1⁄4-mile buffer zone of the Southwestern 

Willow Flycatcher nests. The New Mexico Department 

of Agriculture-Pesticide Division did inspect this job 

using moisture sensitive placards place within the treatment zones, next to the treatment zones, and outside 

of the treatment zones. No herbicide application occurred outside of the treatment zones. The New Mexico 

Department of Agriculture-Pesticide Division was very 

pleased with the control measures of this project. The 

U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service also did not require us to test 

for Arsenal deposition within the Southwestern Willow 

Flycatcher buffer zones, as they were satisfied with the 

control measures of this project.

The project was successful with the use of this technology. We worked in partnership with the U.S. Fish 

& Wildlife Service-Ecological Services and Regional 

Office, the Bureau of Land Management, the Bureau of 

Reclamation, the NM State Land Office and North Star 
256 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Helicopters, Inc. By pooling our funds and resources, the 

project was streamlined and more work was completed 

on the ground.

Salt Cedar Control—The Next 

Steps

This is our first step and the easiest step in our Salt 

cedar control. We are currently writing individual conservation plans with each of the landowners, taking 

into account their desires for their land. Each of the 

Federal and State Agencies are treated as an individual 

landowner. Each of these agencies has rules and regulations to follow. This is incorporated into their plans. 

The re-vegetation of these areas after the removal of the 

Salt cedar is our most important step. Removal of the 

dead Salt cedar will be done two to three years after the 

aerial treatment. The dead Salt cedar will be burned or 

bulldozed followed by burning of the brush piles. In some 

instances, such as the Rio Salado, the dead Salt cedar 

will be left in place as bank stabilization and habitat for 

Raptor species. We anticipate that the native seed source 

is still present in this tributary to the Rio Grande and that 

the seeds will establish once the competition for water 

has been eliminated.

We must re-establish native vegetation and integrate 

re-treatment into the plans. The salinity of the soil will 

determine the type of re-vegetation. The Socorro Soil & 

Water Conservation District has a Geonics EM 38 soil 

salinity meter that measures the salinity both vertically 

and horizontally. In areas with high salinity, plants such as 

salt grass will have a better chance of establishing. Some 

areas will require aerial reseeding. This action may have 

to be repeated. The treatment areas also have no water 

rights. Therefore, our reseeding process will coincide 

with our normal monsoon season. Our office will also 

do re-treatment of Salt cedar sprouts. It is our goal to 

re-establish a native riparian ecosystem to our portion of 

the Rio Grande River thus enhancing habitat not only for 

the endangered species such as the Southwestern Willow 

Flycatcher and the Silvery Minnow, but for all wildlife. 

The large monotypic stands of Salt cedar do not provide 

good habitat for wildlife.

Acknowledgments

The following individuals provided technical support 

for this project: Robert Ewing, Jr., GIS/GPS Specialist 

with North Star Helicopters, Inc. and Mike Carrigan, 

Vegetation Specialist with BASF.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 257

Introduction

The identification of conservation priorities is one 

of the leading issues in conservation biology. In an 

effort to effectively preserve the world’s biodiversity, 

conservation priorities have been assessed at the scale 

of biodiversity hotspots (Myers and others 2000, Reid 

1998) with more recent consideration given to zones of 

ecological transition (Araújo 2002, Gaston and others 

2001), reserve networks (Andelman and Willig 2003, 

Groves and others 2000, Margules and Pressey 2000, 

Rodrigues and others 2004), and for assessing strategies 

at conservation areas (Low 2003). However, given the 

estimated size of the reserve network to conserve the 

world’s biodiversity (11.5% of land area [Chape and others 2003]) and the investments to make it a reality ($3-11 

billion per year over the next 30 years [James and others 

2001, Pimm and others 2001]), NGOs and agencies are 

constantly challenged to strategically consider where, 

when, and how to invest their limited funds to maximize 

conservation benefits (Meir and others 2004).

Assessing the priority of conservation areas has focused correctly on high biodiversity significance and 

protection status (Groves 2003, Pressey and others 

2000, Ricketts 1999, Scott and others 1996, Smith and 

others 2002). Such an approach has provided significant 

influence on conservation efforts by public and private 

agencies. These studies, however, have not adequately 

incorporated threats impacting biodiversity, which is 

the primary temporal influence on conservation action. 

The more robust approaches have incorporated threats 

into their assessment process (Neke and du Plessis 

2004, Noss 2002, Theobald 2003) and it is becoming 

increasing recognized that conservation will fail without 

detailed insights into the threats that are putting species 

and ecological systems at risk (Lawler and others 2002). 

Predicting future threats, such as those from population 

growth (Saterson and others 2001, McKee and others 

2003, Rouget and others 2003), invasives (Dirnbock 

and others 2003), roads, agriculture, forestry and global 

climate change, can provide a proactive approach to 

conservation.

We present a project of The Nature Conservancy 

(TNC), called Sequencing Conservation Actions, which 

prioritizes conservation areas and identifies foci for 

cross-cutting strategies (strategies that impact conservation at multiple sites) at various geographic scales (state, 

ecoregion, region). The Nature Conservancy’s mission 

is to protect biological diversity (Groves and others 

2000), thus the conservation focus of this project is the 

protection of species, natural communities and ecological systems. We use the term “Sequencing” to mean an 

Sequencing Conservation Actions Through Threat 

Assessments in the Southeastern United States

Robert D. Sutter, Senior Conservation Ecologist, and Christopher C. Szell, Conservation 

Ecologist, The Nature Conservancy, Southern U.S. Regional Office, Durham, NC

Abstract—The identification of conservation priorities is one of the leading issues in conservation biology. We present a project of The Nature Conservancy, called Sequencing 

Conservation Actions, which prioritizes conservation areas and identifies foci for crosscutting strategies at various geographic scales. We use the term “Sequencing” to mean 

an ordering of actions over time and “Conservation Actions” to represent strategies 

implemented both at and across conservation areas, and from local to global scales. 

There are three outcomes of the Sequencing Project. The first is the ranking of conservation areas into four sequencing categories based on Relative Biodiversity Value and 

Relative Threat Status. These categories are: 1) Now, Right Now: conservation areas to 

be addressed immediately, 2) Now: conservation areas to be addressed in 3-5 years, 

3) Soon: conservation areas that can be addressed in 5-10 years, and 4) Later: conservation areas that can be addressed in more than 10 years. The second outcome is the 

identification of foci for cross-cutting strategies based on common threats. It is around 

these foci that strategies can be developed. The third outcome compares Relative 

Conservation Opportunities across priority conservation areas. The results enable a 

conservation entity to effectively prioritize actions across conservation areas.
258 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

ordering of actions over time and “Conservation Actions” 

to represent strategies implemented both at and across 

conservation areas and from local to global scales.

In the Southeast U.S., the region in which the 

Sequencing project was developed, there are 1268 conservation areas identified in 11 Ecoregional Assessments. 

Ecoregional Assessments, done at the scale of ecoregions 

(Groves and others 2000, Velutis and Mullen 2000), identify targets of biodiversity interest, assess the viability 

of target occurrences, establish target occurrence and 

geographic goals, and circumscribe conservation areas 

of biodiversity significance (Groves and others 2000, 

Velutis and Mullen 2000). They present the complete set 

of conservation areas that protect multiple occurrences of 

the identified targets. Ecoregional Assessments have the 

added value of identifying multi-site strategies, engaging partners and collaborators, and identifying research 

and inventory needs. Sequencing Conservation Actions 

extends these Assessments by identifying the highest 

priority conservation areas and foci for cross-cutting 

strategies.

Three parameters were used to sequence conservation 

actions. First, an assessment of Relative Biodiversity 

Value, reflecting the significance of species and natural 

communities (total number of targets, rare targets), was 

assigned to each conservation area. Second, a Relative 

Threat Status was determined through the assessment of 

30 standardized threats. Last, each conservation area was 

assessed for their Relative Conservation Opportunities. 

The first two are based on the characteristics of the conservation area; the conservation targets and the threats to 

those targets. The third parameter, takes into account the 

human dimensions of available funding, planning windows, the presence of partners, and project feasibility.

There are three outcomes to the Sequencing Project. 

The first is the ranking of conservation areas into four sequencing categories based on Relative Biodiversity Value 

and Relative Threat Status. These categories are: 1) Now, 

Right Now: conservation areas to be addressed immediately, 2) Now: conservation areas to be addressed in 3-5 

years, 3) Soon: conservation areas that can be addressed 

in 5-10 years, and 4) Later: conservation areas that can 

be addressed in more than 10 years. The second outcome 

is the identification of foci for cross-cutting strategies 

based on common threats. It is around these foci that 

strategies can be developed, supported by the quantitative 

information gathered for each threat. The third outcome 

compares Relative Conservation Opportunities across 

priority conservation areas.

In this paper, we outline the methods used to obtain 

these outcomes and provide several examples. The results 

provide a basis for a conservation entity to prioritize 

conservation areas and a context for site specific actions, 

including land acquisition, threat abatement, land management and restoration, and influencing public policy 

or implementing sustainable land uses.

Methods: Description of the 

Sequencing Process

Parameters

Three parameters were used in the Sequencing Process 

to assess priorities of conservation areas and cross-cutting strategies.

1. Relative Biodiversity Value

In order to determine the Relative Biodiversity Value 

of a conservation area we calculated an index of “irreplaceability” (Pressey and others 1994). Used in other 

efforts to identify conservation priorities (Marshall and 

others 2004, Enquist and others 2004), this measure is 

dependent upon the targets represented at a conservation area and the number of conservation areas being 

considered (for example, scale dependent). Therefore, 

irreplaceability may be defined as the potential contribution of a target to meeting the conservation goals 

within the context of other conservation areas. The index 

changes as targets become more or less represented in 

conservation areas elsewhere in the Ecoregion (Pressey 

and others 1994). Targets that have fewer occurrences 

will have higher index values and contribute greater to a 

conservation area score (see scoring below). Target occurrence data from Ecoregional Assessments, provided 

by the Natural Heritage Program Network, was used to 

calculate the index.

2. Relative Threat Status

Relative Threat Status was obtained through the assessment of 30 standardized and defined threats (table 

1) for each conservation area. Threats were defined as 

activities or conditions that limit the viability of populations or the functionality of ecological systems. They 

are the factors or sources (development, dams, grazing) 

contributing to the stresses (habitat destruction, altered 

hydrologic regime, sedimentation) impacting the targets.

Threats were ranked by two attributes: 1) the Severity

of the threat – how severe the stresses of the threat are to 

the conservation targets and 2) Percent of Ecoregional 

Target Occurrences Affected– the proportion of the target 

occurrences on which the threat is acting at the ranked 

level of severity. Threats were assessed at the scale of 

the conservation area, across all the target occurrences. 

Threats were scored for two time frames, 1) Active
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 259

– current or a very high probability of occurring within 

10 years or 2) Historic – past threats that were no longer 

active but their impacts were still affecting biodiversity 

in the conservation area. Ranking was done on an ordinal 

scale (low, medium, high, very high) as defined in table 

2. The ranking of threats was done in expert meetings 

for each ecoregion involving knowledgeable biologists 

and land managers. Based on the expertise present at the 

meeting, the collective “level of knowledge” about each 

conservation area and its target occurrences was also 

assigned a rank (table 3).

The collection of experts’ intimate knowledge of the 

conservation areas was the most valuable asset during 

the threat assessment process. Although quantitative data 

pertaining to the spatial distribution of conservation areas 

within an ecoregion and the identification and location of 

targets was also made available at each expert meeting. 

These data were derived from Ecoregional Assessments 

and the Freshwater Biodiversity Conservation Assessment 

(Smith and others 2002). Spatial layers of roads, managed 

areas, rivers, and landuse (National Land Cover data 

1992) were also provided. Threat maps were generated 

for selected threats such as population, predicted population growth, livestock facilities, and hydrologic dams and 

made available during discussions as needed.

3. Relative Conservation Opportunity

The addition of Relative Conservation Opportunities 

adds the circumstances under which conservation is 

conducted “on the ground.” The scoring of this last 

component is done from the perspective of the whole 

conservation community and was also completed in 

expert meetings involving biologists and individuals 

knowledgeable about funding sources, public policy, 

partners, and stakeholders. The final product allows the 

comparison of the ecologically most important places 

to work with conservation areas that have the greatest 

conservation opportunities. Six attributes were used to 

score this parameter.

Funding Opportunities: presence of funding from any 

source (private or public) that is available and sufficient 

to begin implementation of key strategies for the specific 

conservation area. Sufficient funding is subjectively 

assessed across the range and cost of key strategies 

(protection, policy, land management).

Presence of Support in Key Agencies/Partners: the 

presence, or potential presence, of support within key 

partner agencies having sufficient competency and will 

have significant positive influence (directly or indirectly 

conserving target occurrences) on project success.

Policy and Constituency (Stakeholder) Support: the 

presence of policy, constituency, both state-wide and 

local, and the political context that will have significant 

influence (directly and indirectly conserving target occurrences) on the success of a project.

Feasibility: a measure of how likely conservation 

success (based on conservation of the majority of conservation targets by implementation of priority strategies) 

can be obtained at a conservation area. This measure is a 

combination of the ease of implementation of the project 

(for example, logistics, number of landowners) and the 

ecological integrity of the site (for example, how much 

restoration is needed or how difficult to abate threats such 

as hydrologic alteration or pathogens).

Unique Opportunity Windows: An unique opportunity 

window includes infrequent planning windows, a rare 

opportunity to purchase land, or currently established 

momentum for conservation. The unique opportunity 

window must be currently present or exist over the next 2-

3 years and taking advantage of the window with focused 

conservation efforts will have significant conservation 

Table 1. Standardized Threats by Category.

Forest Threats

Forest Conversion

Incompatible Forestry Practices and Management

Forestry Roads

Agriculture Threats

Agriculture Conversion 

Incompatible Agricultural Practices

Conversion to Pasture

Incompatible Grazing Practices

Livestock Feedlots/Production Practices

Resource Extraction Threats

Incompatible Resource Extraction

Proposed/Potential Mineral Resource Extraction

Development Threats

Urban/Suburban Development

Industrial Development

Second Home/Vacation Development

Development of Roads/Utilities

Hydrologic Threats

Operation of Dams/Impoundments

Proposed Dams/Impoundments

Water Withdrawal

Proposed Water Withdrawal

Excessive Groundwater Withdrawal

Channel Modification

Incompatible Water Quality

Other Threats

Invasive Species

Parasites/Pathogens

Altered Fire Regime

Recreation

Overexploitation of Species

Airborne Pollutants/Nutrients

Coastal Threats

Shoreline Stabilization

Sea-Level Rise/Global Climate Change

Global Climate Change
260 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

impact (directly and indirectly conserving target occurrences) at a single conservation area or across numerous 

conservation areas.

Opportunity for Significant and Real Leverage:

Leverage is defined as investments of conservation 

resources in conservation action at one conservation 

Table 2. Rank definitions for the attributes of Severity and Percent of Ecoregional Target Occurrences Affected.

Severity Ranks Defined

Very High the threat is likely to destroy or eliminate (irreversible) one or multiple targets within thenext 5 years or currently 

a less severe threat that if not addressed immediately (invasive species; altered fire regimes) will become a 

very high rank within the next 5 years – or – historically, the threat has destroyed or eliminated one or 

multiple targets.

High the threat is likely to seriously degrade (possible to restore but difficult and costly) one or multiple targets within 

the next 5 years or currently a less severe threat that if not addressed immediately will become a high rank 

within the next 5 years – or – historically, the threat has seriously degraded one or multiple targets.

Medium the threat is likely to moderately degrade (possible to reverse) the target within the next 5 years 

– or – historically, the threat has moderately degraded one or multiple targets.

Low the threat is likely to slightly impair (easily reversed) the target within the next 5 years – or – historically, the 

threat has slightly impaired one or multiple targets.

Percent Ecoregional Target Occurrence Ranks Defined

Very high the threat is likely to impact >50% of the target occurrences at the conservation area - or – historically, the 

threat has impacted a majority of target occurrences.

High the threat is likely to impact one irreplaceable (see definition below) conservation target occurrence or 25 

- 50% of the target occurrences at the conservation area – or historically, the threat has impacted a high 

percentage of target occurrences.

Medium the threat is likely to impact 10 - 25% of the target occurrences at the conservation area – or – historically, the 

threat has impacted a moderate percentage of target occurrences.

Low the threat is likely to impact <10% of the target occurrences at the conservation area - or – historically, the 

threat has impacted a low percentage of target occurrences.

Table 3. Rank definitions for varying degrees of the experts’ 

level of knowledge about a conservation area and its target 

occurrences.

Level of Knowledge Defined

Very High A very high level of knowledge of the 

Conservation Area that includes a completed

 conservation area plan.

High A high level of knowledge of the 

Conservation Area with one or more 

participants having first-hand knowledge of 

the whole site and over 50% of the targets.

Medium A medium level of knowledge of the 

Conservation Area with one or more 

participants having first-hand knowledge of 

part of the site and less than 50% of the 

targets.

Low A low level of knowledge of the 

Conservation Area with the participants 

having no first-hand knowledge of the site 

and will be making their best guesses for 

threats and leverage.

area, through direct action or influencing management 

decisions, that results in or enables threat abatement 

and restoration across many other conservation areas. 

For example, this attribute would include exporting new 

conservation knowledge/approaches developed at one 

site to other sites.

Scoring

Relative biodiversity value

We calculated an index of “irreplaceability” to represent the Relative Biodiversity Value of a conservation 

area following the method outlined and incorporated in 

prioritization efforts by Marshall and others 2004. For 

each conservation target, the number of conservation 

areas (for a given ecoregion) at which it occurs was determined and the inverse of that number was calculated 

to represent the importance of a particular area. For example, a target occurring at 20 conservation areas would 

have an index of 1/20 and protecting any one of those 20 

areas would protect an occurrence of the target (Marshall 

and others 2004). Targets captured at fewer areas would 

have higher index values giving them greater weight (for 

example, 1/2 is larger than 1/20) (Marshall and others 

2004). The index values for all targets present for a given 

conservation area were then summed to give an index of 

irreplaceability (IRR): IRR = 1/(count of areas with target 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 261

a) + 1/(count of areas with target a) + 1/(count of areas 

with target a)...for all targets at a given area.

Relative threat status

The first step towards calculating the overall Relative 

Threat Status of a given conservation area is to assess 

the impact of a single threat at the given conservation 

area. The attributes of Severity and Percent Ecoregional 

Target Occurrences were ranked on an ordinal scale (low, 

medium, high, and very high) and combined according 

to the matrix in table 4, to obtain a threat rank for each 

threat.

The four threat ranks for a given conservation area 

were tallied and multiplied by its respective log 5 value 

(for example, number of very high ranks multiplied by 

125, high ranks x 25, medium ranks x 5, and low ranks x 1, 

see table 5). Finally, Relative Threat Status is calculated 

as the sum of all log values within a given conservation 

area (table 5).

Conservation opportunities

Six attributes were also ranked on an ordinal scale 

(low, medium, high, or very high) for assessing Relative 

Conservation Opportunities. Ordinal scale values translated into numeric values from 1-4 (low = 1, very high =4) 

and the attributes of Funding and Opportunity Window 

were each weighted by 2 (4 x 2 = 8) while the Presence 

of Key Agencies/Partners was weighted by 1.5 (4 x 1.5 

= 6). Subsequently, the highest possible value available 

for a given conservation area would be 34 (3 attributes 

x 4; 2 attributes x 8; 1 attribute x 6). Dividing scores 

into quartiles provided the Conservation Opportunity 

categories of very high, high, medium or low opportunity (fig. 2).

Table 4. Threat Rank Matrix: results of Severity and Percent Ecoregional Target Occurrence ranks.

Percent of Ecoregional Target Occurrence Ranks:

VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW

Severity Ranks: VERY HIGH Very High Very High Very High High

HIGH Very High High High Medium

MEDIUM High Medium Medium Low

LOW Medium Low Low Low

Example of Sequencing Results

Figure 1 illustrates the output that positions conservation areas along the two axes of Irreplaceability and 

Relative Threat Status for the South Atlantic Coastal 

Plain (SACP) ecoregion. The graph provides information 

on the Sequencing Category (determined by the region 

of the graph) and the level of knowledge about each 

conservation area brought to the assessment by experts 

(the color and size of the points). Action Sites, priority 

conservation areas subjectively identified in the South 

Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregional Assessment (TNC 

2002), have been marked with an asterisk. Thresholds of 

Relative Threat Status were established on a log 5 scale 

at the 50 and 250 values. The conservation areas that 

fall within the region above the 250 threshold contain at 

least 2 threat ranks scored as very high while those within 

the region between 50 and 250 had at least 2 high threat 

ranks. The Irreplaceability index was placed on a log + 

1 scale. The thresholds of Soon and Later represent the 

50% and 75% quartiles of the largest log value within 

the data set (1.73 in the case of SACP). Therefore, a 

conservation area with a Relative Threat Status >250 and 

an Irreplaceability Index of <1.3 falls within the NOW

sequencing category.

The Sequencing Categories, from bottom left to top 

right, are: Later: conservation areas that can be addressed in more than 10 years due to low threat and low 

irreplaceability value; Soon: conservation areas that can 

be addressed in 5-10 years due to low threat and medium 

to low irreplaceability; Now: conservation areas to be 

addressed in 3-5 years due to a medium to high threat 

and with a medium to low irreplaceability value; and 

Now - Right Now: conservation areas to be addressed 

Table 5. Example calculations for determining Relative Threat Status. Very High (VH), High (H), Medium (M), Low (L).

Tallied Number of 

Threat Ranks: Threat Rank x Log 5 value:

Conservation Area VH H M L VH = 125 H = 25 M = 5 L = 1 Relative Threat Status

A 7 9 7 0 875 +25 +35 +0 = 1135

B 4 3 0 0 500 +5 +0 +0 = 575

C 3 0 12 0 375 +0 +60 +0 = 435
262 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

immediately driven by their high irreplaceability value 

and a range of threat status from low to high. The dimensions of the Now-Right Now category reflects the 

duel desire of conservation entities to protect both high 

biodiversity areas that have low threat and those that 

have high threat. Table 6 lists the conservation areas in 

both the Now-Right Now and Now categories and provides the scores for Irreplaceability Index and Relative 

Threat Status.

Figure 2 illustrates the output that positions conservation areas along the two axes of Irreplaceability and 

Relative Threat Status for the state of Georgia (combination of five ecoregional assessments). The graph 

provides information on the Sequencing Category and 

the rank of Relative Conservation Opportunity (the color 

and size of the points). Note that all of the Now-Right 

Now conservation areas have either a very high or high 

conservation opportunity, an unusual result among the 

seven state assessments.

Figure 3 presents threat data for the state of Georgia. 

Percent occurrence of each of the 30 threats using just 

Very High and High threat ranks have been graphed. 

This information provides foci for identifying potential 

cross-cutting strategies.

All three figures may be graphed at various scales 

(state, ecoregion, region) and may represent different 

threats or ownership. For the latter, we have generated 

graphs for conservation areas in which the USFS and 

USFWS are primary land owners. Each parameter may 

also be assigned to a GIS layer and mapped to represent 

the spatial distribution of each threat or threat rank.

Discussion

The process of Sequencing Conservation Actions 

highlights several challenges in assessing the priorities 

across a set of conservation areas. An obvious concern is 

the completeness and quality of the data. The Southeast 

U.S. is one of the most thoroughly inventoried and data 

rich regions of the world. Over the 11 ecoregional plans 

and 1268 conservation areas, there were 38,000 target 

occurrences (representing some 3500 species groups 

and natural communities) and the process was enriched 

by the involvement of 160 field biologists and land 

Figure 1. Four levels of Conservation Action for 39 conservation areas in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain Ecoregion. Each 

point represents a conservation area labeled by the conservation id. Sequencing Category thresholds are indicated by 

red (Now-Right Now and Now), yellow (Soon), and green (Later) lines. Participants Level of Knowledge about each 

conservation area is noted by different size and color points. Actions sites identified in Ecoregional Assessments are 

indicated by an asterisk.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 263

managers. While data was extensive, there are always 

problems with completeness. Even in well inventoried 

regions, not all target occurrences are known and within 

and across ecoregions there were obvious gaps in knowledge. There were also differences among ecoregions and 

states in compiling data and the involvement of experts. 

Consistency was greatest at the ecoregional scale. When 

rolling up data, the inconsistency across plans effects the 

accuracy of the results.

Developing an appropriate measure for Relative 

Biodiversity Value involved testing several indices before settling on the Irreplaceability Index. The goal was 

Table 6. South Atlantic Coastal Plain Conservation Areas with Sequencing Category of Now-Right Now and Now.

Conservation Area (CA) State Level of Knowledge Targets IRR1 RTS2 Sequencing Category

Coastal Islands and Estuaries GA-SC-FL High 92 52.94 693 NOW-RIGHT NOW

Altamaha River GA Very High 111 44.92 630 NOW-RIGHT NOW

New Trail Ridge FL Medium 87 43.81 649 NOW-RIGHT NOW

St. Marys River FL-GA Very High 64 30.43 896 NOW-RIGHT NOW

Ixia Flatwoods FL Medium 24 8.03 805 NOW-RIGHT NOW

Timucuan/Pumpkin Hill FL Very High 25 7.97 1098 NOW-RIGHT NOW

Durbin/Dee Dot FL High 15 3.95 570 NOW-RIGHT NOW

Savannah River Basin SC-GA Very High 108 37.60 495 NOW

Santa Fe/New River FL Medium 37 20.57 397 NOW

Crooked River/King’s Bay GA Medium 8 2.94 348 NOW

Alapaha River GA-FL Medium 9 2.10 477 NOW

Grand Bay/Banks Lake GA Very High 6 1.63 318 NOW

1

 IRR = Irreplacibility Index

2

 RTS = Relative Threat Status

Figure 2. Four levels of Conservation Action for 105 conservation areas in Georgia from 5 ecoregional assessments. Each 

point represents a conservation area labeled by the conservation id. Sequencing Category thresholds are indicated 

by red (Now-Right Now and Now), yellow (Soon), and green (Later) lines. Conservation Opportunity is indicated by 

different size and colored points.
264 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to rank conservation areas by a value representing the 

significant biodiversity of that area, moderating the bias 

of larger areas (usually having more targets), and giving 

additional weight to rare (having few occurrences across 

their range) and irreplaceable (occurring in only one location) targets. The first index used to represent Relative 

Biodiversity Value, incorporated the total number of 

ecoregional target occurrences and the number of globally rare targets (G1 and G2 ranked targets). However, 

this index did not represent conservation areas with 

“irreplaceable” targets (G1 targets found only at one 

conservation area in the ecoregion). Subsequently, conservation areas with an irreplaceable target were queried 

individually and assigned, by default, to the Now-Right 

Now sequencing category. In doing so, we lost the actual 

relationship between Relative Biodiversity Value and 

Relative Threat Status. Comparing the different indices 

found that each provided similar relational patterns between Relative Biodiversity Value and Relative Threat 

Status (Sutter and Szell unpublished data).

Enquist and others (2004) chose not to use the 

Irreplaceability Index, instead they used an index developed from 6 weighted attributes. While the correlation 

among their three indices were high (all greater than 

r=.85), they felt that the Irreplaceabiliy Index was more 

sensitive to sampling bias and the lack of knowledge 

of the distribution of targets among the conservation 

areas. We do not see this as an unique issue with the 

Irreplaceability Index, rather sampling bias will effect all 

indices in similar ways. With the Irreplaceability Index, 

only new targets at the scale of assessment (ecoregion, 

state) or the addition of an occurrences of a target in a new 

conservation area will have a substantial influence on the 

index. This, we believe, is outweighed by the simplicity 

and clarity of the Irreplaceability Index. In addition, the 

index’s dynamic nature allows rapid re-evaluation of 

the “uniqueness” of a given conservation area as more 

target data becomes available. One does need to take 

care of interpreting a score of 1 for the Irreplaceability 

Index. This suggests that either the conservation area 

Figure 3. Very high and High Threats Ranks for each of the 30 threats scored for Georgia.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 265

encompasses a target that only occurs at that location 

(1 of 1 occurrence) or many targets occur at multiple 

locations so when the many index values for a given 

conservation area are summed they give an index of 

irreplaceability (IRR) equal to 1. Thus the index does 

not guarantee that all very rare targets receive a high 

IRR score. The data itself (table 6) provides a means of 

assessing this.

Developing the Relative Threat Assessment measure 

also presented challenges. First, there was no standardized 

and comprehensive list of threats that could be adopted. 

We developed our own list of threats (table 1) from our 

experience, TNC conservation plans, and published articles (Salafsky and Margolius 1999). The content and 

structure of the list, as expected, evolved through the 

process, although we had to continue scoring threats in 

the categories first chosen. We would recommend others using our more comprehensive list, structured with 

primary threats and an associated list of threat descriptors (Appendix A, available on ConserveOnline). A 

standardized list of threats will be essential for studies 

that assess threats across different scales, assessments, 

and organizations.

Secondly, the associated time frame for ranking 

threats is a challenge. Threats can be ranked as historic 

(past threats that are no longer active but their impacts 

are still effecting biodiversity in the conservation area), 

active (current threat or one that has a very high probability of occurring over a selected time frame) and 

future (a potential threat that is not currently active). 

Historic threats become the focus of ecological restoration, while active threats need to be first addressed by 

some level of threat abatement. Some active threats that 

are scored at lower levels of severity (invasive species) 

and some future threats (climate change, sea level rise) 

need to be addressed proactively. For invasive species, 

control efforts are much more successful at low levels 

of invasion, before they reach levels that get scored as 

high severity. Efforts to mitigate the effects of climate 

change and sea level rise needs to be taken into account 

in conservation planning. While obvious from the nature 

of these threats, the scoring did not take these issues 

into account.

We had extensive input from practitioners into the 

Relative Conservation Opportunity parameter, for both 

the identification of attributes and the development of criteria. It was difficult developing a categorized and linear 

structure for a process that is complex and interrelated. 

A significant issue is the order in which these parameters 

are scored. We feel strongly that the biodiversity value 

and threat status of conservation areas should be assessed 

before opportunities are overlain. This order makes 

explicit the primary importance of what is ecologically 

significant before conservation opportunities are taken 

into account.

The results of Sequencing are not intended to be 

absolute, but guidance for conservation entities. The 

graphs allow the comparison of Relative Biodiversity 

Value and Relative Threat Status, providing the basis 

to assess the trade-off in acting at one site over others. As mentioned, where along the threat continuum 

a conservation entity works, from highly threatened to 

not threatened, is a matter of choice. The more threatened a conservation area is, the lower the probability of 

conservation success. Conservation areas scored with 

a very high Relative Conservation Opportunity in the 

Now-Right Now category, especially in the attributes 

of funding and opportunity windows, are clearly places 

for priority action. Conservation areas with low Relative 

Conservation Opportunity scores in the Now-Right 

Now category are places where opportunities can be 

developed. Conservation areas scored with a very high 

Relative Conservation Opportunity in the other sequencing categories challenge conservation entities to assess 

the trade-off among areas of different biodiversity values 

and threat status. Going through the process itself is an 

extremely valuable exercise as it poses important issues 

that any conservation entity needs to address. Sequencing 

facilitates a thoughtful approach to establishing conservation priorities.

The Sequencing process makes explicit several 

significant questions concerning how conservation is 

implemented. Some of these are: Should conservation 

entities focus conservation efforts on the most threatened 

or the best remaining conservation areas? How do conservation entities balance between working deep at a few 

conservation areas and working on broader, larger scale 

actions that influence conservation at multiple scales? 

Should conservation entities focus work on large landscape sites or a mix of spatial scales? Should conservation 

entities focus on conserving targets nearest to extinction 

or actions that influences all conservation targets equally? 

How do conservation entities make decisions between 

high priority conservation areas and opportunities for 

conservation at lower priority sites? These questions need 

wider discussion within the conservation community as 

NGOs and agencies consider where, when, and how to 

invest limited funds to maximize conservation benefits.

The results from Sequencing Conservation Actions 

provides significant insight into establishing priorities 

for conservation, explicitly showing the relationship of 

the conservation areas to biodiversity value, threat, and 

conservation opportunity. The process takes significant 

but not extensive time to complete and the scoring is 

straightforward and understandable. The overall benefit 

is that it provides consistency and transparency to the 
266 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

process of establishing conservation priorities and makes 

explicit important conservation decisions.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 267

Introduction

Effectiveness monitoring is the use of indicators to 

determine achievement of management goals and objectives, while validation monitoring is used to investigate 

the relationship between an action and an effect as a test 

of a hypothesis (Mulder and others 1999). These two 

types of monitoring with respect to forest management 

should not be considered different, and all biodiversity 

monitoring should examine objectives in light of expectation, or hypotheses. In other words, monitoring 

the effects of forest management should be considered 

a research problem. However, monitoring needs for 

management evaluation requires ecologists to conduct 

long-term research without the benefits of experimental 

manipulation. In this way, ecologists are caught in an 

experimental time-space warp.

Despite more than 20 years of research into the effects 

of boreal forest management on animal and plant communities, with few exceptions, management agencies are 

still uncertain of how to monitor effects (or effectiveness). The broad concepts of coarse and fine filters (Noss 

1987, 1999, Hunter 1990), although somewhat modified 

from the original intent, are generally well accepted, as is 

the principle that forest management affects biodiversity 

at multiple scales. A large and varied number of criticisms 

have been made of the use of indicators to suggest change 

as a result of forest management (Steele and others 1984, 

Landres and others 1988, Prendergast and others 1993, 

Carignan and Villard 2002). Nevertheless, it is impossible 

to infer sustainability without monitoring something, 

and all authors agree that a set of indicators is needed 

(Landres and others 1988, McLaren and others 1998, 

Lindenmayer 1999, Carignan and Villard 2002).

However, difficulties arise in the development of 

details, particularly over what to monitor, how often to 

monitor, what sample sizes are needed, and ultimately 

how to decide whether or not a measured change is 

meaningful. In fact the latter issue is rarely considered 

in monitoring programs. These problems arise for several reasons including a lack of application of research 

results to management practice, uncertainty about the 

questions that a monitoring program should answer, and 

especially the lack of scientific rigor in application of a 

monitoring program to the problems at hand. There is a 

need for management agencies to develop clear questions 

before designing and undertaking monitoring programs. 

This paper suggests various means to correct some of the 

Monitoring of Biodiversity Indicators in Boreal Forests: A 

Need for Improved Focus

Ian D. Thompson

Abstract—The general principles of scale and coarse and fine filters have been widely 

accepted, but management agencies and industry are still grappling with the question 

of what to monitor to detect changes in forest biodiversity after forest management. 

Part of this problem can be attributed to the lack of focused questions for monitoring 

associated with an absence of null models and predicted effects, a certain level of 

disconnect between research and management, and recognition that, in the case of 

forest management, monitoring is research. Considerable research from the past decade 

has not been adequately synthesized to answer important questions, such as which 

species might be the best indicators of change, what is the importance, if any, of subtle 

changes in community structures, and causes of observed changes. A disproportionate 

research emphasis has been placed on community ecology, and mostly on a few groups 

of arthropods, amphibians, migratory songbirds, and small mammals, while other species, including soil organisms, lichens, bats, raptors, and larger mammals remain less 

well-known. Hence, our ability to deal with questions of persistence is limited, and 

demographic research on key species is urgently needed. Management agencies need 

to clearly articulate null models for monitoring, focus fine-scale monitoring on key species in key habitats and areas to answer clear questions, and have a protocol in place 

to adapt management strategies to changes observed. Finally, agencies must have some 

way to determine and define when a significant change has occurred and to predict 

persistence of species; this too should flow from a proper null model.
268 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

problems that have arisen, clouding the intent, design, 

and interpretation of results from monitoring programs. 

The paper does not address in a comprehensive manner 

the selection of indicators or the statistical considerations for designing a monitoring program. For specific 

discussions of ways to chose indicators, the reader is 

referred to: McLaren and others (1998), Noss (1999), 

and Carignan and Villard (2002), and for statistical and 

power considerations to Link and others (1994), Phillippi 

and others (1998), Gibbs and others (1998), Pollock and 

others (2002), Carlson and Schmiegelow (2002), and 

Rempel and Kushneriuk (2003).

A Need for the Improved Use 

of Available Research

The catalogue of research studies into the effects of 

boreal forest management on aspects of biodiversity 

during the past 20 or more years is impressive. A simple 

search on “biodiversity + boreal + forest management” 

in a single forestry-related library database, for 1980 

to 2004, produced more than 300 published articles. 

However, much of the available research is in a published 

format that management agencies do not or rarely use. 

Academic researchers view the scientific community 

as their main “client,” and so results are published in 

scientific journals that managers rarely read and using 

language that is difficult to read. As a result, much of 

this information remains obscure and unavailable to 

management agencies because of a lack of directed and 

meaningful syntheses, and the inability (or disinterest) 

of researchers to move their results into management 

practice. By “meaningful synthesis,” I am referring to 

the need to use the published literature to develop predictive models of effects, which can lead to a strong set of 

indicators that can be monitored as a test of a hypothesis. 

Considerable information on which to base monitoring 

programs is available but remains non-influential, and 

as a result monitoring programs in boreal forests are 

somewhat mired in uncertainty. 

As an example in boreal forests of Canada, researchers 

have keyed in on the importance of standing and fallen 

deadwood with certain characteristics that provides 

strong predictive capability for breeding by some species 

(Bonar 2000, Setterington and others 2000, Drapeau and 

others 2002, Steeger and Dulisse 2002). A synthesis of 

this information could be used to develop models leading to predictions of when certain species might begin 

to re-occur in managed forests, for example as was done 

by Bunnell and others (2002), leading to a hypothesis 

of effect. Models may also lead to predictions about 

thresholds of response to particular structures (fig. 1). 

However, little demographic information and few species-specific studies are available to enable assessment 

of persistence of species associated with dead wood 

structures. Nevertheless, models could be developed to 

predict responses.

Re-focusing Research

There has been excessive study of certain groups of 

organisms, especially carabid beetles, forest songbirds, 

and small mammals, yet on the other hand the cryptic 

and the more difficult-to-study organisms remain obscure 

as does species-specific information on demography. For 

example, certain groups of species that have proved to 

be useful indicators in Scandinavian boreal forests, have 

not been well-researched in the Canadian boreal forest. 

These include bryophytes, fungi, saproxylic beetles, and 

lichens (Esseen and others 1996, Jonsson and Jonsell 

1999, Berglund and Jonsson 2001). As a result, even the 

broad effects of forest management on many potential 

indicators remain unknown. Other groups of species that 

Figure 1. Possible thresholds and responses exist in response 

of species to structures and amounts of forest, and if properly 

modeled provides managers with testable hypotheses. In the 

illustrated case, two possible models suggest responses by 

red-backed voles (Clethrionomys gapperi) in mature boreal 

forests to the volume of coarse woody debris. Monitoring 

could be used as a test of the hypothesis that a certain 

volume of CWD is required for the voles to persist and to 

examine the suggested thresholds for population. These 

models are based on unpublished data for dry conifer 

(exponential) and lowland conifer (logistic) (I. Thompson, 

Can. For. Serv.).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 269

remain poorly known in boreal forests include small 

carnivores, owls, raptors, cryptograms, and all soil organisms. Among the small carnivores, marten and lynx 

are reasonably well researched, but fisher, red fox, all 

three boreal weasel species, river otter, and mink have 

not been adequately studied to predict the effects of forest management. 

For the commonly studied groups, researchers 

have most often decided to examine community-level 

questions. These studies invariably show a re-ordered 

abundance of species by forest management treatment, 

but provide limited information about the causal effects 

of forest management on species persistence and no information on the effects of such changes on ecosystem 

function. For example, a recent publication by Work 

and others (2004) concluded that the community composition of carabid beetles was dramatically different 

depending on stand origin (fire or logging) and by cover 

type. Their conclusion was that “...[the species] exist in 

different mixes and it is not clear that the persistence of 

all species would be assured [under different management regimes] on the managed landscape.” This is the 

same as saying that they could draw no conclusions with 

respect to species persistence and so could not comment 

about the effects of forest management, other than to say 

that relative abundances had changed. The literature is 

replete with these kinds of studies, all indicating that 

differences in relative species abundance had occurred 

as a result of forest management, but which provided no 

information about important mechanistic relationships. 

Lindenmayer (1999) points out that such studies also 

reveal little about cumulative impacts in space or time. 

This kind of result has done little to inform management 

agencies and do not contribute to a monitoring program. 

However, what these community-based studies can provide is suggestions about species that may be affected 

and so lead researchers towards subsequent demographic 

and detailed habitat studies that may reveal causal links 

to the effects of forest management. Unfortunately, few 

such studies are available in boreal forests and modeling 

persistence is not possible for most species, although 

there are notable exceptions (marten [Martes americana], 

snowshoe hare [Lepus americana], and balsam fir [Abies 

balsmifera]). Schumaker and others (2004) developed 

habitat scenarios for suites of wildlife species but noted 

their inability to deal with the persistence issue owing 

to lack of information for most. We need to move past 

community studies and onto detailed examinations of 

habitats and demographics of individual species that are 

predicted to be affected negatively by forest management. Spatially explicit population models can be used 

to develop population-based predictions of effects that 

can be examined through monitoring.

What is the Correct 

Monitoring Question?

Forest management is a large-scale experiment in 

community ecology, hence monitoring requires research 

hypotheses that flow logically from this experiment. 

Logging in the Canadian boreal forest has a relatively 

young history, beginning in the 1940s, only becoming 

mechanized in the 1960s, followed by a rapid expansion in area in the 1970s in the east but not until the late 

1980s in the west. There are no mechanically-logged 

second-growth forests that are old enough to compare to 

natural-origin old forests. Bearing this in mind, simulation modeling is the only tool to enable some perspective 

about the sustainability of forest management in the long 

term. However, we can examine younger forests that are 

comparable in age but were derived from natural and 

managed disturbances, while maintaining benchmark 

old forests to enable the longer-term modeling predictions to be tested.

For monitoring to contribute to our understanding of 

the effects of forest management, it must be viewed as 

a mensurative science experiment with testable hypotheses. Therefore, in designing a monitoring program, a 

key need is to formulate the correct questions. The main 

underlying question is not “how has abundance of species 

A or forest ecosystem X changed over time in response 

to a given practice?” Rather, the issue is “has a change 

occurred in response to a forest management practice 

that was unexpected and deleterious to the persistence 

of a population of a particular species?” (In Ontario, 

for example, the scale is set at the “forest management 

unit” [FMU, approximately 5000 km2] because plans 

are developed at this scale and each plan has to demonstrate sustainability). In other words, “will the species or 

population continue to survive over the long-term in this 

forest?” In the ultimate sense, sustainable development 

is about the preservation of genetic diversity. Thinking at 

this level, that is, about what might cause the loss of genes 

from populations, should help to develop a monitoring 

program that will succeed. There is a need to monitor 

local populations (in other words, FMU-scale), not just 

species or elements at a regional scale. 

There must be some a priori expectation (hypothesis) 

against which to measure effect and a means to identify an 

unacceptable level of impact. In the few instances where 

management agencies have followed a well-developed 

plan for a boreal biodiversity monitoring program (the 

Alberta Biomonitoring Program, Farr and others 1999), 

there is still no explicit means of determining when to 

declare that a problem exists. Monitoring programs 

need to consider observed changes measured under an 
270 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

appropriate null model, and in the light of changes to 

coarse filters that are also monitored. Null models provide 

a basis against which to determine that a significant negative effect has occurred. In the absence of a such a model, 

monitoring is nothing more than counting organisms and 

assessing trends in time (Krebs 1991, Nichols 1999), but 

cannot answer the question ”when has a sufficient change 

occurred to warrant corrective management action?”

Appropriate null models are debatable and require 

considerable thought and various lines of evidence 

from research to develop properly. In recent years at 

coarse scales, forest management has moved away from 

sustained yield towards emphasizing planning that is 

“close to nature” or that “emulates natural disturbances,” 

at scales from forest stands to large landscapes (Harris 

1984, Hunter 1990, Attiwill 1994). In boreal forests, 

many authors have argued that “natural disturbance 

emulation” is the appropriate null model because these 

forests were mostly disturbance-driven, especially by 

fires (Harris 1984, Haila and others 1994, Bergeron 

and Harvey 1997). An important issue to understand, 

as a forest manager, is “will forest communities that 

result following harvesting converge with those forest 

communities that result following natural disturbances, 

and hence maintain associated biological diversity and 

all the same goods and services?” In other words, we 

need to know if it is possible to use forest systems while 

maintaining their ecological integrity, and ensuring their 

stability (age structure, species composition, structures, 

and processes) within known bounds (Thompson and 

Harestad 2004). A monitoring program is meant to suggest whether or not such bounds have been exceeded, and 

should be developed to test differences between natural 

and managed forests of similar types on similar sites and 

of similar ages, for a range of indicators across scales.

There is, of course, considerable debate about the ability of forest managers to emulate natural disturbances, 

and how appropriate the natural disturbance model may 

be is open to some question (Hunter 1993, Landres 

and others 1999, Reich and others 2001). It may be 

that past landscapes cannot really be true predictors of 

future landscapes, given that humans have altered even 

natural processes, for example through suppression of 

fires, climate change, and the introduction of exotic 

species. One could argue that an appropriate null model 

should be based on an expected landscape as designed 

by humans.

The ability to develop well-informed null models may 

be limited by knowledge; however, this limitation has 

been reduced in recent years with an accumulation of 

studies about boreal forests and their biodiversity. This 

work has flowed from well-funded research programs 

under the Canadian Model Forests Network, National 

Research Council’s Sustainable Forest Management 

Network, Ontario’s Living Legacy Trust, Manning Forest 

Products Research Trust, Fonds québécois de recherche 

sur la société et la culture, and British Columbia Forest 

Renewal Program. However, the problem of incorporating these results into monitoring programs remains 

problematic as noted above.

The Value of a Model-based Monitoring 

Program

Models can fulfill several roles in the development 

of a monitoring program including estimating required 

sample sizes, indicating power, suggesting sample distribution, but most importantly to develop predictions 

based on previous knowledge. The latter use provides 

managers with a means to assess success and the ability 

to estimate the probability of persistence of an indicator. 

In a more general sense, models also force managers and 

researchers to examine closely what they understand 

about causal links between forest management and 

effects on biodiversity, and lead ultimately to revised 

management strategies (Walters and Holling 1990) and 

more focused research.

An Example of Model-based Predictions 

for Monitoring

Thompson and others (2003) published a review of 

the impacts of intensive forest management that enabled 

them to develop predictive probabilistic models of effects on individual species. The species modeled were 

selected based on an expectation of detectable effects 

over time in second-growth boreal forest stands, as 

compared to natural-origin forests of the same age and 

type. The curves were developed based on published 

literature and expert opinion and provided testable null 

hypotheses of probabilistic effect. Relative population 

changes were modeled for several species based on forest 

change with harvesting on a 5000 km2 landscape in boreal 

eastern Ontario, Canada. Cape May warbler (Dendroica 

tigrina) and Tennessee warbler (Vermivora peregrina) 

are illustrated in figure 2. Species for which predicted 

effects were distinguishable between treatments (natural 

vs. managed) at 40-50 years of age could be used as 

indicators of sustainable forest management, such as in 

the case of the two warbler species shown. The predicted 

population changes are hypotheses of effect and monitoring would permit testing against the model. A decline of 

20 percent could be selected as severe and would occur 

for Tennessee warblers by year 48 on this particular 

landscape, if no post-harvest treatment was done.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 271

Some Additional Thoughts on 

Selecting Indicators

How to select species or elements to monitor is not 

the focus of this paper, and several excellent publications are available to help managers select indicators 

(see: Introduction). Nevertheless, some additional ideas 

to guide the selection of indicators would include: using 

existing community-based studies to implicate species 

of particular interest, choosing species for which modeling has suggested both stand and landscape effects (in 

other words, as predictor variables), including species 

that require specific forest structures known to change 

as a result of management, and selecting species that 

occur in rare or declining habitats (and monitoring the 

habitats themselves). Hansson (2001) called habitats 

in which there was a high probability of encountering 

“red-listed” species “key habitats” and suggested these 

areas required special consideration. Such areas have 

not been carefully identified in Canadian boreal forests. 

Although rare species present several sampling problems 

(for example, excessive zero plots, high variance, low 

power to detect change) (Link and others 1994), these 

species have a high probability of being among the first 

to become locally extinct, as a result of altered habitats 

or altered community-related processes, such as predation or competition. Hannon and others (2004) have 

suggested a protocol for identifying rare avian species 

in boreal forests. Locally rare species, especially where 

rarity is related to a rare habitat, warrant special consideration as indicators in a monitoring program. In the case 

of a rare indicator, concern over high variability among 

counts, or among years, could be offset by using several 

Figure 2. Predicted probability of 

occurrence for two boreal warbler 

species in similar forest types over 

time since harvest for a boreal forest 

landscape of about 5000 km2. ”Natural 

regeneration” refers to no post-harvest 

treatment to the stands post-harvesting, 

and “60 percent treated” refers to 

60 percent of the stands on a given 

landscape were planted and tended 

following harvesting. Populations of 

both species are predicted to decline 

continuously following removal of 

original forest cover, but the decline 

is predicted to be precipitous in the 

absence of post-harvest treatment. 

(from Thompson and others 2003)
272 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

lines of evidence to determine change in population. 

For example, counts on snow transects, counts at scent 

posts, and camera traps might be used to provide three 

separate indices of a rare mammal species. Finally, to 

reiterate an earlier point, until the value as indicators of 

poorly studied groups of organisms is assessed (lichens, 

soil organisms, small carnivores), the available choices 

for indicators remains incomplete.

Conclusion

In the case of monitoring the effects of forest management, we need to be clear that monitoring is long-term 

research. A proper framework for monitoring programs 

that includes hypotheses, well thought-out models of 

effects, and clear objectives with respect to changes in 

numbers or amounts of indicators is needed for these 

programs to be effective. Simple arbitrary plans that declines will be detected are insufficient, as is the view that 

reporting numbers is somehow meaningful. A monitoring 

program should be seen and developed as a test of hypotheses relating to the experiment of sustainable forest 

management. Improved use of existing research can be 

made to develop testable hypotheses under a monitoring 

program, and future research should concentrate less on 

community ecology and more on key species and key 

habitats to understand causal links to the effects of forest management. Finally, in boreal forests considerable 

research is still needed on many poorly understood species so that indicators can be selected from the range of 

functional groups in these systems.

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274 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Background

Evidence that humans impact their local environment 

dates as long ago as 40,000 years before the present 

(Drake and others 1989). As human populations on the 

planet grow, expand, and colonize new landscapes, humans are also beginning to impact the global environment 

by: 1) increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide in the 

atmosphere and altering global climatic conditions; 2) 

producing and releasing persistent organic compounds 

(for example, chloroflourocarbons); 3) changing land 

cover; and 4) encouraging the spread of invasive organisms, so-called “biological pollutants” (Coblentz 1990, 

Soulé 1990, Jobin and others 1996, Vitousek and others 

1996, Olson and Harris 1997, Higgins and others 1999, 

Palumbi 2001). Potential impacts of human activities 

include local and global species extinctions. Areas 

where “anthropogenic activities reduce natural habitat 

in centers of endemism” (Dobson and others 1997:550) 

are considered “hot spots” of species endangerment. 

Within the United States, the Southwest is one of several 

regions designated as such a hot spot (Dobson and others 

1997, Flather and others 1998, Abbitt and others 2000). 

The Southwest includes southeastern California, most 

of Arizona and New Mexico, southwestern Colorado 

and southern Utah, and Texas west of the Pecos River 

(Bogan and others 1998). The region is topographically 

and climatically diverse, with elevations ranging from 

sea level to 4,000 m, and temperatures ranging from mild 

to extreme cold or intense heat. Precipitation and water 

availability also vary. The diversity of abiotic conditions, 

combined with elevational and latitudinal gradients, create a multitude of microhabitats, which have contributed 

to the evolution and maintenance of biological endemism 

and diversity (Hubbard 1977, Szaro 1980, Bogan and 

Southwestern Avian Community Organization in Exotic 

Tamarix: Current Patterns and Future Needs

H. A. Walker, doctoral candidate, Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, 

Albuquerque, NM 87131 and seasonal Wildlife Biologist, USDA Forest Service Rocky 

Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—Tamarisk (saltcedar: Tamarix), an invasive exotic tree native to the Eastern 

Hemisphere, is currently the dominant plant species in most southwestern riparian 

ecosystems at elevations below 1500 m. Tamarisk alters abiotic conditions and the 

floral composition of native southwestern riparian ecosystems and, in turn, affects native southwestern animal communities. However, information on the overall effects of 

tamarisk on avifauna is somewhat conflicting and incomplete. This paper attempts to 

resolve conflict in the literature by addressing several questions: (1) Are there consistent 

broad geographic patterns in avian species richness and abundance in tamarisk?; (2) 

Which groups of birds use tamarisk?; and (3) Which attributes are most useful in predicting avian use of tamarisk? A survey of published literature found that overall avian 

species richness and abundance in tamarisk are not consistent across broad geographic 

scales, but vary consistently between the Rio Grande and the Pecos and Colorado 

Rivers. Examination of geographic variation in food and nesting resources provided by 

tamarisk-dominated vegetation did not fully explain overall geographic patterns; most 

groups of birds show consistent use of tamarisk across geographic locations. However, 

use of tamarisk by cup nesting breeding birds does vary with geographic location. Since 

most research on avian use of tamarisk has been completed on breeding birds, patterns in breeding birds appear to drive the documented geographic patterns. Overall, 

avian use of tamarisk is best explained by species-specific nesting and foraging requirements, which in turn covary with vegetation structure and floristics, and are mediated 

by climatic influences. Since large gaps still exist in the knowledge base, especially for 

wintering and migrating birds, more research should be completed on both local and 

regional avian use of tamarisk and a classification system of tamarisk vegetation types 

should be developed to aid in defining which types of tamarisk are most useful or 

detrimental to wildlife.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 275

others 1998). Southwestern ecosystems most threatened 

by human activities are desert shrubland, arid grassland, 

and, particularly, riparian.

Southwestern riparian ecosystems occur along streams 

and rivers and are characterized by narrow bands of 

mesic vegetation embedded in extensive areas of xeric 

upland vegetation (Szaro and Jakle 1985, Knopf and 

others 1988). Anthropogenic alteration, degradation, 

and destruction of native riparian ecosystems have great 

potential to negatively impact the long-term stability of 

southwestern wildlife populations. Southwestern riparian 

areas are one of the few places where plants and wildlife 

can find surface or near-surface water and, consequently, 

support a large number and variety of southwestern 

wildlife species (Stamp 1978, Szaro 1980, Knopf and 

others 1988, Brown and Johnson 1989). Specifically, 

southwestern riparian areas support more breeding birds 

than surrounding uplands and attract higher numbers 

of migratory birds (Carothers and others 1974, Stamp 

1978, Szaro 1980, Szaro and Jakle 1985, Hunter and 

others 1988, Knopf and others 1988, Ellis 1995, Yong 

and Finch 1997, Patten 1998, Skagen and others 1998, 

Yong and others 1998, DeLay and others 1999, Kelly 

and Finch 1999, Kelly and others 2000).

Although indigenous peoples have inhabited the 

Southwest for at least 10,000 years (for example, the 

Anasazi, Mogollon, and Hohokam peoples), large-scale 

anthropogenic impacts to southwestern riparian ecosystems intensified in the 1870s when the Southwest began 

to be settled by Anglo-Americans, accompanied by development of irrigation, agriculture, livestock grazing, 

and, eventually, urban and suburban areas (Carothers 

1977, Bogan and others 1998). Threats to native riparian 

ecosystems include: 1) removal of native riparian vegetation (for example, phreatophyte control); 2) urban and 

suburban development; 3) groundwater pumping; and 4) 

river damming, diversion, and channelization (Carothers 

and others 1974, Carothers 1977, Davis 1977, Johnson 

and others 1977, Ohmart and others 1977, Knopf and 

others 1988, Johnson 1989, Howe and Knopf 1991, 

Marshall and Stoleson 2000). In addition, but perhaps 

not as widely appreciated, native riparian ecosystems are 

being altered by the spread and establishment of exotic 

plants, which can affect ecosystem function and distributions and population dynamics of native species (Knopf 

and others 1988, Howe and Knopf 1991, Vitousek and 

others 1996, Westbrooks 1998, Higgins and others 1999, 

Fleishman and others 2003).

An invasive exotic plant of management concern in the 

Southwest is tamarisk or saltcedar (Tamarix), a long-lived 

(50 to 100 years) deciduous tree native to arid regions of 

the Eastern Hemisphere. Plants within the Tamarix genus 

are generally characterized by: 1) deep pink to almost 

white flowers (fig. 1); 2) capsule fruit, bearing many 

tiny seeds; 3) small scale-like leaves with salt-secreting 

glands; and 4) deep, extensive root systems (up to 100 

feet) that extend to the water table. Several species of 

tamarisk were first introduced into the United States 

in the early 1800s for stabilization of eroding stream 

banks and for use as both ornamentals and windbreaks 

(DeLoach 1997, Westbrooks 1998). By the 1930s, tamarisk had successfully invaded riparian areas throughout 

the western United States (Anderson and others 1977a, 

Ohmart and others 1977, Brown and Johnson 1989, 

DeLoach 1997). Initial spread of tamarisk along such 

rivers as the Gila, Salt, Pecos, Colorado, and Rio Grande 

was encouraged by the construction of dams and flood 

control structures, which disrupted natural hydrologic 

cycles and decreased the competitive ability of native 

plant species that depended on flood-created regeneration sites (Marshall and Stoleson 2000). Subsequently, 

tamarisk has successfully invaded riparian areas and 

ephemeral wetlands (for example, playas, arroyos, and 

alkali flats) that are relatively undisturbed by human 

activities. Introduced tamarisk is now the dominant 

plant species in most southwestern riparian ecosystems 

at elevations below 1500 m, where it often forms large 

monotypic stands to the exclusion of native plants.

The success of tamarisk in replacing native riparian 

plant species in the Southwest is partially due to its ability to alter ecosystem functioning and create unsuitable 

growing conditions for other plants. In particular, tamarisk: 1) increases soil salinity above the tolerance level of 

native plants by secreting a salty exudate from its foliage; 

2) reduces water availability by drawing down ground 

water with its deep root systems to depths below root 

systems of native plants; and 3) increases fire frequency 

by shedding its foliage and creating thick, fire-prone 

Figure 1. Flowering tamarisk (Tamarix). (Photograph 

reproduced with the permission of the King County Noxious 

Weed Control Program.).
276 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

ground cover (Anderson and others 1977a, Cohan and 

others 1979, Livingston and Schemnitz 1996, DeLoach 

1997). Tamarisk is able to further limit growth of native 

plant species due to the fact that it: 1) has a 5-month fruiting period that allows it to exploit suitable germinating 

conditions over a longer period than many native plant 

species (Howe and Knopf 1991); 2) produces a large 

seed bank that allows it to out-compete many native 

plant species for germination sites (Cohan and others 

1979, Howe and Knopf 1991, Westbrooks 1998); 3) in 

the absence of scouring flows, forms thick stands that 

shade native plant germination sites; and 4) establishes 

opportunistically (in both saturated and dry surface soils) 

after flood disturbance (Stromberg 1997).

By altering abiotic conditions and the floral composition of native riparian ecosystems, tamarisk also affects 

native southwestern animal communities (DeLoach 

1997). However, information on the overall use of 

tamarisk by wildlife is conflicting and somewhat incomplete. Some authors have reported preferential use 

of tamarisk vegetation by certain animal species, while 

other authors have reported that, like many exotic plant 

species, tamarisk establishment alters animal species 

compositions and reduce biodiversity (DeLoach 1997, 

Olson and Harris 1997). Similar debate exists in the literature regarding the value of tamarisk specifically for 

avifauna. It is generally accepted that initial spread and 

establishment of tamarisk in native southwestern riparian 

ecosystems, and corresponding loss of native vegetation, 

resulted in population reductions in many riparian bird 

species (Carothers 1977, Ohmart and others 1977, Cohan 

and others 1979, Hunter and others 1985, Hunter and 

others 1987, Hunter and others 1988). However, there 

is evidence that birds are adjusting to the expansion of 

tamarisk and are utilizing tamarisk-dominated vegetation 

for both nesting (Hunter and others 1988, Brown and 

Trosset 1989, Fleishman and others 2003) and foraging 

(Yard and others 2004). Unfortunately, determining the 

value of tamarisk to avifauna has been confounded by the 

fact that bird/tamarisk relationships vary with geographic 

location (Livingston and Schemnitz 1996).

It is estimated that at the current rate of spread exotic 

plants will dominate all southwestern riparian ecosystems within 50 to 100 years (Howe and Knopf 1991). 

Therefore, knowledge of the effects of tamarisk on native 

organisms will become substantially more relevant as 

tamarisk becomes the predominant vegetation type available and as the need for habitat management increases 

(Anderson and others 1977a, Ohmart and others 1977). 

In this paper, I examine several questions concerning the 

value of tamarisk to avifauna: (1) Are there consistent 

broad geographic patterns in avian species richness and 

abundance in tamarisk?; (2) Which groups of birds use 

tamarisk?; and (3) Which attributes intrinsic and extrinsic to tamarisk are most useful in predicting avian use? 

Answers to these questions will help to determine which 

groups of birds respond most negatively and positively 

to tamarisk establishment and whether tamarisk can provide avian habitat functionally similar to native riparian 

vegetation. Such information will inform management 

practices that seek to control or eradicate exotic vegetation and protect southwestern bird species. In addition, 

since bird species can be good indicators for other taxa 

(Dobson and others 1997), knowledge of the effects of 

tamarisk on avifauna can also help to guide conservation 

efforts on other taxa.

Geographic Patterns in Avian 

Use of Tamarisk

In trying to resolve debate regarding the value of 

tamarisk to avifauna across the Southwest, I attempted 

to glean broad predictive patterns from the published 

literature. However, it became immediately apparent that 

most research investigating avian use of tamarisk was 

biased towards riparian ecosystems that were historically dominated by native cottonwood (Populus), willow 

(Salix), and/or mesquite (Prosopis) along the Rio Grande 

and Pecos and Colorado Rivers in New Mexico, Texas, 

and Arizona. Furthermore, it also became apparent that 

geographic location is a strong determinant of avian use 

of tamarisk and associations of bird species with tamarisk 

vary consistently between the three southwestern river 

valleys. Specifically, tamarisk-dominated vegetation 

along the lower Colorado River supports a depauperate 

riparian bird community compared to tamarisk vegetation along the Rio Grande and Pecos River (Hunter and 

others 1985, Hunter and others 1987, Hunter and others 

1988). This pattern can be seen at both the species and 

the community level.

Two species that illustrate geographic variability in 

species-specific use of tamarisk are Bell’s Vireo (Vireo 

bellii, State Threatened in New Mexico) and Yellowbilled Cuckoo (Coccyzus americanus, Federal Candidate 

Species). The Bell’s Vireo avoids monotypic stands of 

tamarisk along the lower Colorado River, but readily 

uses similar stands along the Rio Grande and at higher 

elevations along the Colorado River (Hunter and others 

1985, Brown and Trosset 1989, Rosenburg and others 

1991). Similarly, the Yellow-billed Cuckoo tends to be 

restricted to cottonwood-willow groves on the lower 

Colorado River, but is found extensively in tamarisk 

along the middle Pecos River (Hunter and others 1985, 

Hunter and others 1988, Rosenberg and others 1991, 

Livingston and Schemnitz 1996).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 277

When species-specific patterns are summarized into 

total densities and species richness values, the total 

number of individuals and species supported by tamarisk relative to native vegetation also differs among the 

three river valleys (fig. 2). Tamarisk vegetation along 

the lower Colorado River supports lower avian densities and species richness than native vegetation types, 

while, along the middle Pecos River, where a substantial 

riparian woodland was absent prior to establishment of 

tamarisk, total densities and species richness in tamarisk 

surpasses that of the native Chihuahuan grassland and 

shrub (Anderson and others 1977a and 1977b, Cohan 

and others 1979, Anderson and Ohmart 1984b, Hunter 

and others 1985, Hunter and others 1988, Rosenberg and 

others 1991, Livingston and Schemnitz 1996). Tamarisk 

invasion has even promoted expansions of several bird 

species within and into the Pecos Valley (Hunter and 

others 1988, Livingston and Schemnitz 1996). On the 

Rio Grande, several published studies report that avian 

densities and species richness are lower in tamarisk relative to native vegetation (Anderson and Ohmart 1984b, 

Hunter and others 1988, Kelly and Finch 1999), while 

other studies report that avian densities and species 

richness are either similar or higher in tamarisk (Hunter 

and others 1985, Ellis 1995, Livingston and Schemnitz 

1996, Kelly and Finch 1999). Despite conflicting results 

within the Rio Grande, evidence suggests that tamarisk 

vegetation generally supports more birds along the Rio 

Grande than along the lower Colorado River (Hunter and 

others 1985, 1988).

Avian use of tamarisk also varies geographically 

among bird communities classified by residency status 

(Anderson and Ohmart 1977a, Hunter and others 1985, 

Hunter and others 1987, Hunter and others 1988). There 

are four principal residency groups: 1) residents (also 

called permanent residents), which tend to be present in 

southwestern riparian ecosystems throughout the year; 

2) summer residents (also called summer visitors or 

summer breeders), which are only present in the ecosystem during late spring and summer; 3) winter residents 

(also called winter visitors), which are only present for 

varying lengths of time between September and April; 

and 4) transients (also called en route migrants), which 

are only present for narrow time periods during fall and 

spring migration (Szaro 1980, Hunter and others 1985, 

Hunter and others 1987, Hunter and others 1988, Finch 

and others 1995). Most research on use of tamarisk by 

residency groups has focused on residents and summer 

residents during the summer breeding season. Little research has been completed on winter residents and even 

less on transients.

Studies on residents and summer residents during the 

breeding season indicate that peak timing of egg laying 

is a confounding determinant in breeding bird use of 

tamarisk (Hunter and others 1985, 1988). Use of tamarisk by early summer breeders generally increases from 

east to west (Hunter and others 1985, 1988). In contrast, 

most midsummer breeders are largely restricted to native 

vegetation on the lower Colorado River, but they occur in 

greater or equal densities in tamarisk as native vegetation 

on the middle Pecos River, the Rio Grande, and higherelevation stretches of the Colorado River (Anderson and 

others 1977a, Cohan and others 1979, Hunter and others 

1985, Hunter and others 1987, Hunter and others 1988). 

Research during the winter season indicates that avian 

densities and species richness in tamarisk also follow 

geographic patterns; densities and species richness of 

wintering birds are generally lower in tamarisk than in 

native vegetation types on the lower Colorado River and 

Rio Grande, while wintering birds use tamarisk heavily 

on the middle Pecos River (Anderson and others 1977a, 

Cohan and others 1979, Anderson and Ohmart 1984b, 

Hunter and others 1988, Rosenberg and others 1991).

There is some evidence to suggest that, as with breeding and wintering birds, use of tamarisk by transients is 

also site-specific. However, the only published studies 

that specifically addressed use of tamarisk by transients 

were from the middle Rio Grande. I found no published 

studies on transient use of tamarisk on the Pecos River 

and the few studies that measured avian use in tamarisk 

during the spring and/or fall migratory periods along the 

lower Colorado River provided little specific information 

on migrating birds. The lack of work on transient use of 

tamarisk makes conclusions problematic. Nevertheless, it 

Figure 2. Number of bird species (N=13), common to the 

Rio Grande and the Pecos and lower Colorado Rivers, 

with more than fifty percent of their detections in either 

cottonwood-willow (Populus-Salix) or tamarisk (Tamarix) 

vegetation, when evaluating presence only in those two 

vegetation types. Adapted from data published in Hunter 

and others 1985, 1988.
278 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

appears that transients use tamarisk along the middle Rio 

Grande, sometimes in equal numbers to the native vegetation (Leal 1994, Ellis 1995, Yong and others 1998, Kelly 

and Finch 1999, Kelly and others 2000, Yong and Finch 

2002), while both spring and fall birds (of all residency 

groups, not just transients) avoid tamarisk along the lower 

Colorado River (Anderson and others 1977a, Cohan and 

others 1979, Anderson and Ohmart 1984b).

Confounding Variables: 

Explaining Geographic 

Variation in Avian Use of 

Tamarisk

Geographic variation in avian use of tamarisk appears 

to pose an obstacle to drawing sweeping region-wide 

conclusions about the value of tamarisk to avifauna: 

few region-wide generalizations can be derived from 

information based on only one river valley. However, 

geographic variation in avian use of vegetation is not 

unique to tamarisk. It reflects the interaction between the 

life histories of particular bird species and geographic 

variation in physical and biological environmental factors necessary for survival and reproductive success 

(Szaro 1980, James and others 1984, Rosenberg and 

others 1991). Interspecific competition also plays a role 

in determining species’ occurrences, but it is difficult to 

quantify over broad geographic regions (Carothers and 

others 1974, James and others 1984).

Geographic variation in both physical and biological 

environmental factors is apparent in tamarisk-dominated sites. Due to its ability to tolerate a wide range of 

environmental conditions, tamarisk can flourish along 

both permanent and ephemeral water sources and in 

a wide variety of soil types (saturated and dry), elevations, and climates. In addition, both the structure of 

tamarisk vegetation and the floristics of adjacent and 

associated vegetation are variable (Brotherson and others 1984). As a result of differences in environmental 

features among tamarisk vegetation across local and 

broad geographic scales, tamarisk provides a variety 

of abiotic microclimates, food resources, and foraging 

and nesting substrates. Thus, variation in environmental 

features must be examined in relation to avian life history requirements in order to tease apart the factors that 

confound region-wide patterns in avian use of tamarisk 

(James and others 1984, Sogge and Marshall 2000).

In the following paragraphs, I will evaluate the extent 

to which food resources, nesting substrates, vegetative 

structure, and climate underlie the following two somewhat consistent patterns in avian use of tamarisk: 1) 

tamarisk vegetation along the lower Colorado River supports fewer total species and individuals of midsummer 

breeding and wintering birds than tamarisk vegetation 

along the Rio Grande and middle Pecos River; and 2) 

early summer breeders are more abundant in tamarisk 

along the lower Colorado River than in tamarisk along 

the Rio Grande and the middle Pecos River.

Confounding Variable: Food Resources

Food acquisition is important for survival during all 

phases of a bird’s annual cycle and influences seasonal 

patterns in habitat use. Not all birds use tamarisk to meet 

food-related requirements and some forage largely or 

exclusively in adjacent vegetation. Nevertheless, many 

bird species appear to forage in tamarisk. Few studies 

investigating the value of food resources in tamarisk to 

birds used direct measures such as observations of foraging behavior or analyses of stomach and fecal contents. 

Instead, correspondence between presence of avian diet 

guilds and abundance of food types is used as a proxy indictor of whether tamarisk vegetation provides necessary 

food resources. Five primary diet guilds are discussed 

in the literature: granivores, frugivores, timber-drillers 

and timber gleaners (which are often considered to be 

foraging, rather than diet, guilds, but will be included 

here), nectivores, and insectivores.

Little geographic variability is evident in use of tamarisk plants by granivores, frugivores, timber-drillers and 

timber gleaners, and nectivores. Granivorous bird species 

prefer or do not avoid tamarisk, while frugivores, timberdrillers and timber gleaners, and nectivores appear to 

avoid tamarisk (Anderson and others 1977a, Cohan and 

others 1979, Brush 1983, Anderson and Ohmart 1984b, 

Rosenberg and others 1991, Ellis 1995). Consistent use 

of tamarisk by granivores is due to the fact that, though 

affected by age and water availability, all tamarisk plants 

produce copious amounts of seeds (up to 100 million 

seeds per year) from mid-spring to fall. Its lack of fleshy 

fruits and dense, hard wood result in consistent avoidance 

of tamarisk by frugivores and timber-drillers and timber 

gleaners, respectively. Tamarisk floral morphology apparently limits the ability of nectivores to utilize the large 

numbers of nectar-laden tamarisk flowers available from 

mid-spring to fall.

In general, the large number of 1) pollinator species 

(for example, Cotinus beetles) attracted to flowering 

tamarisk; 2) the exotic leafhopper (Opsius stactogalus) 

accidentally introduced with tamarisk; and 3) Apache 

cicadas (Diceroprocta apache) are good sources of 

arthropod prey for insectivorous birds in tamarisk vegetation during spring and summer (Rosenberg and others 

1982, Glinski and Ohmart 1983, Glinski and Ohmart 

1984, Andersen 1994, Drost and others 2003, Yard and 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 279

others 2004). However, unlike in the above four diet 

guilds, use of tamarisk by insectivorous birds has been 

found to vary with location and season; some studies 

have found that insectivorous birds showed no selection 

against tamarisk (Anderson and others 1977a, Rosenberg 

and others 1991, Ellis 1995), while others have found the 

reverse (Cohan and others 1979, Anderson and Ohmart 

1984b). Variability in tamarisk use by insectivores is partially explained by differences in: 1) adjacent vegetation, 

such as mesquite, which can be good sources for arthropod “tourist” species that move into tamarisk-dominated 

vegetation; 2) the composition and diversity of major 

arthropod taxa between tamarisk and native vegetation 

and between locations (for example, Apache cicadas are 

less abundant and Orthopterans are more abundant in 

tamarisk on the middle Pecos River than on the lower 

Colorado River); and 3) timing of emergence of Apache 

cicadas, which better matches the timing of bird migration and peak nesting in cottonwood-willow vegetation 

than it does in tamarisk vegetation, at least along the 

lower Colorado River (Cohan and others 1979, Hunter 

and others 1988, Rosenberg and others 1991, Andersen 

1994, Mund-Meyerson 1998, DeLay and others 1999, 

Drost and others 2003).

Since granivores, frugivores, timber-drillers and timber gleaners, and nectivores (though locally variable) 

are either consistently absent or present in tamarisk, 

these four diet guilds do not explain differences between 

tamarisk avian communities along the lower Colorado 

River compared to those along the Rio Grande and the 

Pecos River. In contrast, differences in the presence of 

insectivores, corresponding to differences in arthropod 

resources, partly explain why tamarisk vegetation supports fewer birds along the lower Colorado River than 

along the Rio Grande and Pecos River. However, these 

differences alone do not fully explain geographic patterns 

in avian use of tamarisk, since: 1) arthropod diversity 

in tamarisk does not appear to differ markedly between 

the Pecos and Colorado Rivers; and 2) the low numbers 

of midsummer breeders along the lower Colorado River 

cannot be attributed entirely to differences in Apache cicada availability. Furthermore, arthropod prey abundance 

apparently does not differ consistently between the Pecos 

and Colorado Rivers; a large number prey items are 

consistently abundant in tamarisk along both rivers.

Confounding Variable: Nest Sites

In addition to food resources, the availability of nest 

sites, which directly affects reproductive success, is an 

important determinant in habitat selection (Hunter and 

others 1987). The ability to nest in tamarisk is partly 

related to nest type (for example, cavity, cup, platform) 

and the availability of suitable nesting substrates. Cup 

nesters (including riparian obligates) are able to use 

tamarisk vegetation in many areas and sometimes nest 

predominately in tamarisk even when native vegetation is available (Hunter and others 1988, Brown and 

Trosset 1989, Rosenberg and others 1991, Brown 1992, 

Ellis 1995). However, a number of species are generally 

unable to meet their nesting requirements in tamarisk 

vegetation, including ground nesting charadriiformes 

(for example, Least Tern [Sterna antillarum], Snowy 

Plover [Charadrius alexandrinus]), large raptors, and 

cavity nesters (for example, woodpeckers, nuthatches) 

(Anderson and others 1977a, Cohan and others 1979, 

Brush 1983, Hunter and others 1987, Rosenberg and 

others 1991, Ellis 1995, Koenen and others 1996, Taylor 

2003). Large raptors might be absent from tamarisk due 

to the lack of tall, large trees needed for placement of 

platform nests (Hunter and others 1985). Cavity nesters 

might be absent from tamarisk because (1) tamarisk 

wood is too hard to excavate, (2) the body sizes of 

North American woodpeckers (and required cavity 

sizes) generally exceed the maximum size of tamarisk 

trunks and limbs, and (3) the absence of woodpeckers 

affects secondary cavity nesters that require woodpeckers for cavity excavation (Anderson and others 1977a, 

Brush 1983). A notable exception is the Ladder-backed 

Woodpecker (Picoides scalaris), which was the first New 

World woodpecker to be documented breeding in tamarisk, most likely due to the fact that it is the smallest and 

best excavating woodpecker in the range of introduced 

tamarisk (fig. 3, Brush 1983).

Use of tamarisk by ground nesting charadriiformes, 

platform nesters, and cavity nesters is generally consistent among river valleys. Use of tamarisk by cup nesters, 

on the other hand, is variable and evidence suggests that 

midsummer breeders with open cup nests are less likely 

to use tamarisk than are birds with insulated nests (for 

example, sphere nests or cup nests with shade structures) 

on the lower Colorado River (Hunter and others 1988). 

This pattern cannot be explained by the lack of suitable 

nesting substrates for open cup nesters on the lower 

Colorado. Therefore, nest type alone does not explain 

why avian use of tamarisk tends to differ between river 

valleys.

Confounding Variable: Vegetative 

Composition and Structure

The vegetative structure (physiognomy) and floristics 

(species composition) of tamarisk-dominated areas is 

perhaps more useful in explaining geographic variation 

in avian use of tamarisk than variation in food resources 

or nest site availability alone. Both vegetative structure 

and floristics influence the types and availability of food 
280 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

resources and of foraging and nesting substrates (Szaro 

1980, Fleishman and others 2003), and therefore, are 

proxies for a large number of environmental factors 

necessary for birds to fulfill their life history (MacArthur 

and MacArthur 1961, Robinson and Holmes 1984, Szaro 

and Jakle 1985, Allison and others 2003, Fleishman and 

others 2003).

There is disagreement in the literature as to whether 

vegetative structure of tamarisk is most closely correlated with avian diversity, density, or species richness. 

However, tall, dense tamarisk stands that are structurally 

diverse are generally most often used by birds (Carothers 

and others 1974, Anderson and others 1977a, Stamp 

1978, Szaro and Jakle 1985, Rosenberg and others 

1991, Farley and others 1994, Livingston and Schemnitz 

1996). Furthermore, tamarisk vegetation with similar 

physiognomy as native vegetation generally supports 

similar avian densities and species richness (Brown 

and Trosset 1989, Livingston and Schemnitz 1996, 

Fleishman and others 2003). Thus, in some situations, 

riparian communities dominated by tamarisk can be the 

structural or ecological analogs of native communities 

that are the required habitat of native riparian birds. 

Compared to physiognomy, floristics are more important 

in determining avian species composition. Avian species 

composition is generally more similar when floristics are 

more similar (Anderson and others 1977a, Fleishman 

and others 2003). Therefore, tamarisk stands that contain some attendant native plant species are more likely 

to support unique avian species that are usually closely 

associated with the native vegetation (Ellis 1995). In 

addition, floristics of adjacent plant species influence 

avian species composition, abundance, and diversity in 

tamarisk vegetation by increasing availability of food 

and nesting substrates (Carothers and others 1974, Szaro 

and Jakle 1985). Due to the affect of floristics on avian 

communities, many studies suggest that addition of native trees and shrubs that provide high quality nesting 

and/or foraging substrates enhances the value of tamarisk 

vegetation to birds (Beidleman 1971, Anderson and others 1977a, Cohan and others 1979, Glinski and Ohmart 

1983, Hunter and others 1987, Hunter and others 1988, 

Brown 1992, Livingston and Schemnitz 1996, Kelly and 

Finch 1999).

Both the vegetative structure and the floristics of 

tamarisk vegetation vary with location (fig. 4). Structure 

of individual tamarisk plants can vary from thinstemmed shrubs to multi-trunked trees and from ground 

cover seedlings to trees of 10 meters or more in height 

(Brotherson and others 1984). In addition, tamariskdominated vegetation can vary from mixtures of native 

and exotic plant species to stands comprised solely of 

tamarisk. Furthermore, vegetation adjacent to tamarisk 

stands can vary from native woodland to grassland or 

agricultural fields. Though few consistent structural and 

floristic differences exist between tamarisk vegetation of 

the Rio Grande and the Pecos and Colorado Rivers: 1) 

tamarisk stands on the lower Colorado River tend to be 

lower-statured and sparser than along the Pecos River, the 

Rio Grande, and upper elevations of the Colorado River 

and 2) a larger number of adjacent shrubs and annuals are 

present along the middle Pecos River. This variability in 

Figure 4. The vegetative structure (physiognomy) of tamarisk 

can vary with location. Individual tamarisk plants can vary 

from thin-stemmed shrubs to multi-trunked trees and from 

ground cover seedlings to trees of 10 meters or more in 

height. (Photographs by Kenneth Lair and Hira Walker.).

Figure 3. Cavity nesting birds generally avoid tamarisk 

(Tamarix) and are restricted to native vegetation. A notable 

exception is the Ladder-backed Woodpecker (Picoides 

scalaris). The Ladder-backed Woodpecker (left photographs) 

was the first New World woodpecker to be documented 

breeding in tamarisk, which is most likely due to the fact 

that it is the smallest and best excavating woodpecker in 

the range of tamarisk. Note the stout bill morphology of the 

Ladder-backed Woodpecker compared to that of the Redshafted Flicker (right photograph: Colaptes auratus cafer). 

(Photographs by Santigo Guallar, Steven Ogle, and John 

Puschock.).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 281

physiognomy and floristics of tamarisk vegetation partly 

explains geographic variability in avian communities in 

tamarisk. Specifically, the higher availability of food resources provided by associated shrubs and annuals along 

the Pecos River is responsible for the relatively high 

number of granivorous and wintering insectivorous bird 

species in tamarisk on the Pecos River compared to the 

lower Colorado River and Rio Grande (Hunter and others 

1988). However, geographic differences in physiognomy 

and floristics alone are probably insufficient to explain 

geographic patterns in avian use of tamarisk.

Confounding Variable: Climate

Birds select among available habitats using information on both physical and biological environmental 

attributes to meet energetic and reproductive needs and to 

maximize fitness: vegetation composition alone does not 

determine whether a bird will be present in a particular 

area. Thus, although availability of food resources and 

nesting substrates, which covary with vegetative structure 

and floristics, help to explain patterns in avian use of 

tamarisk, the physical environment is also an important 

causal factor. In the southwest, elevation increases and 

temperatures decreases from west to east (for example, 

from the Colorado River to the Pecos River) and from 

south to north. These gradients influence abiotic environmental features extrinsic to tamarisk-dominated 

sites and help to explain the conflicting patterns seen 

in breeding birds (i.e., why midsummer breeders are 

absent in tamarisk on the lower Colorado River while 

early summer breeders rarely use tamarisk on the middle 

Pecos River).

Along the lower Colorado River, June and July temperatures frequently exceed 42 o

C. Such high temperatures 

are detrimental to developing eggs and young. Since 

tamarisk stands along the lower Colorado River tend to 

be lower-statured and sparse, it has been hypothesized 

that they might not provide adequate foliage cover for 

eggs and young during midsummer months (Anderson 

and others 1977a, Hunter and others 1985, Hunter and 

others 1987, Hunter and others 1988, Rosenberg and 

others 1991, Marshall and Stoleson 2000, United States 

Fish and Wildlife Service 2001). This hypothesis is 

supported by the fact that midsummer breeders with 

insulated nests are more likely to use tamarisk on the 

lower Colorado River than are open cup nesters (Hunter 

and others 1988).

Opposite to summer temperatures, winter severity 

increases from west to east. Hunter and others (1985, 

1988) hypothesized that the low numbers of early breeding residents in tamarisk along the middle Pecos River 

and Rio Grande are due to the fact that tamarisk might 

provide suboptimal habitat for wintering early breeding 

Sonoran or Chihuahuan bird species in western Texas and 

eastern New Mexico. Physiological stress and associated 

mortality might prevent resident species from spreading 

into tamarisk and surviving to breed the next year.

Synthesis of Current Patterns

Southwestern riparian bird populations are affected by 

a complex set of interacting factors, including competition, diet preference, nesting requirements, psychological 

preferences for habitat attributes (for example, vegetative 

structure, plant species composition, patch size), and 

physiological tolerance to microclimatic factors of the 

physical environment (Szaro 1980, James and others 

1984, Sogge and Marshall 2000). Since factors necessary 

for the survival and reproductive success of birds fluctuate spatially and temporally, discussion of distributions 

and abundances of species and species assemblages in 

tamarisk must involve biogeographic considerations.

Absence or negative relationships are the clearest patterns to document; several groups or assemblages of birds 

generally avoid tamarisk across the Southwest simply 

because tamarisk does not provide specific food resources 

or nesting substrates. These birds include frugivores, 

timber-drillers and timber gleaners, nectivores, ground 

nesting charadriiformes, platform-nesting raptors, and 

cavity nesters. Positive relationships are more difficult to 

quantify. Granivorous bird species generally prefer or do 

not to avoid tamarisk regardless of locality, while use by 

other guilds is more complex. Geographic variability in 

use of tamarisk by these species often impedes attempts 

to determine the value of tamarisk to birds. However, 

biogeographic comparisons elucidate the following two 

predictive patterns: 1) tamarisk vegetation along the 

lower Colorado River supports fewer total species and 

individuals of both midsummer breeding and wintering 

birds than tamarisk vegetation along the Rio Grande and 

middle Pecos River and 2) early summer breeders are 

more abundant in tamarisk along the lower Colorado 

River than in tamarisk along the Rio Grande and the 

middle Pecos River.

Breeding birds (especially midsummer-breeding summer residents) are the most abundant group of birds in 

riparian areas (Szaro and Jakle 1985) and are the most 

well documented. Therefore, patterns in breeding bird use 

of tamarisk drive the patterns that have been described for 

total species densities and richness. Since distributions of 

breeding birds are most limited by nesting requirements, 

the depauperate midsummer breeding bird community 

in tamarisk along the lower Colorado River is attributed 

to lower nesting success. Specifically, the lower-statured 

and spares stands of tamarisk along the lower Colorado 
282 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

River do not provide sufficient foliage cover to protect 

eggs and young of open cup nesters from high midsummer temperatures. In addition, the timing of Apache 

cicada emergence in tamarisk stands along the lower 

Colorado River makes cicadas unavailable as a prey 

source for migrating or breeding riparian birds.

There are few substantiated explanations for the lowered number of wintering birds on the lower Colorado 

River, largely because less research has been completed 

during this period than during the breeding season. 

Wintering birds are generally more limited by physiological stress and mortality. Winters tend to increase in 

severity from west to east. However, information is lacking as to why exactly early breeding residents (as opposed 

to other groups of birds) are unable to survive winters in 

tamarisk vegetation along the middle Pecos River and 

Rio Grande. Hunter and others (1988) hypothesized 

that tamarisk vegetation in western Texas and eastern 

New Mexico provides suboptimal wintering habitat for 

Sonoran or Chihuahuan bird species (which are often 

early summer breeders). This conflicts with findings that 

wintering birds are generally more abundant in tamarisk 

on the middle Pecos River due to the higher availability 

of winter food resources from adjacent food-producing 

habitats), which allows for higher winter survivorship 

on the middle Pecos River.

Overall, documented patterns in avian use of tamarisk are best explained by species-specific nesting and 

foraging requirements, which in turn covary with the 

vegetation structure and floristics, and are mediated by 

climatic influences. Tamarisk vegetation most used by 

birds generally occurs as tall, dense, structurally heterogeneous stands. Such stands tend to have more nesting 

and foraging substrates, provide cover from thermal 

stress and predation, and support more food resources.

Future Needs

Despite the numerous studies that have been published on avian use of tamarisk, large gaps exist in our 

knowledge base:

Most research has focused on the lower Colorado 

River, which is vegetatively and climatically distinct 

from tamarisk-dominated sites elsewhere. As a result, 

broad conclusions made on the value of tamarisk to 

avifauna would be erroneous if based solely on data 

from the lower Colorado River (Brown and Johnson 

1989). More studies are needed not only from the Rio 

Grande and the Pecos River, but also from associated 

tributaries and other major southwestern river systems 

(Hunter and others 1985).

1.

The majority of research has been completed during 

the breeding season. Although some information exists for wintering birds, there is much left to discover 

regarding tamarisk use by migrating birds.

Use of tamarisk by insectivorous birds has been found 

to vary with location and season, but little information 

is available to explain the observed variability. Studies 

are needed comparing insect biomass and availability 

of foraging substrates to foraging behavior and diet 

requirements.

Published literature on avian use of tamarisk has been 

largely limited to inventory – that is, simply recording 

the presence or absence of bird species in tamarisk 

vegetation. However, occupancy of a habitat alone 

does not imply optimality, only that the habitat meets 

the selection criteria for those species present (Sogge 

and Marshall 2000). Ultimately, the suitability of a 

habitat must be measured by reproductive success 

and survivorship (Sogge and Marshall 2000). The 

suitability (in terms of productivity and survivorship) 

of tamarisk-dominated vegetation to avian species 

in the Southwest is not well studied and has been 

mostly limited to work on one species, the Federally 

Endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher (Sogge 

and Marshall 2000). Notable exceptions are studies by 

Yong and others (1998) and Kelly and Finch (1999) 

that looked at energetic condition (for example, fat 

scores and mass) of transients on the middle Rio 

Grande, New Mexico. Additional studies quantifying 

survivorship and reproductive success should better 

determine the value of tamarisk habitats and should 

resolve whether tamarisk habitats are sinks for southwestern bird populations.

More studies (particularly experimental studies) are 

needed to tease out which factors delimit avian use 

of tamarisk at local and regional scales. Hunter and 

others (1985, 1987, 1988) and others have put forth 

several hypotheses to explain observed patterns in 

avian use of tamarisk, but no studies have attempted 

to determine their validity. More data are needed to 

determine whether, for example, the relative insulation 

properties of tamarisk, availability of food resources, 

and/or vegetative structure limit bird use of tamarisk 

along east-west gradients.

Tamarisk vegetation is variable in structure and 

floristics. Hunter and others (1985) suggests that, in 

order to better quantify avian value of tamarisk, bird 

communities should be surveyed in a large range of 

tamarisk vegetation types. However, the diversity of 

tamarisk vegetation types hampers discussion of the 

types of tamarisk most preferred or avoided by birds. 

I propose that a classification system be developed 

for tamarisk vegetation based on such attributes as 

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 283

plant species composition, structure, and hydrology. 

Similar classification systems have been developed 

for streams (Rosgen 1985), riparian forests (Brown 

and others 1979, Szaro 1980), and tamarisk structural 

types (Anderson and others 1977a). Only by formulating standardized terminology can the complexity 

of tamarisk vegetation types be addressed by both 

managers and researchers.

Discussion

Riparian ecosystems in the Southwest provide mesic sanctuaries from surrounding arid and semi-arid 

landscapes for a host of wildlife species (Patten 1998). 

Although riparian ecosystems represent only 1 percent 

of the total area in the southwestern United States, 

they support 75 to 80 percent of southwestern wildlife 

species (Knopf and others 1988). Specifically, riparian 

ecosystems support more breeding bird species than 

surrounding uplands (Johnson and others 1977, Hunter 

and others 1988, Knopf and others 1988, Ellis 1995, 

DeLay and others 1999, Kelly and Finch 1999) and, according to Hunter and others (1988), over 40 percent of 

all the bird species found in southwestern river valleys 

depend, either partially or entirely, on riparian vegetation. In addition, southwestern riparian areas attract high 

concentrations of migratory passerines en route to their 

wintering or breeding grounds (Yong and Finch 1997, 

Skagen and others 1998, Yong and others 1998, Kelly 

and others 2000).

Over the last century, an estimated 90 percent of 

native riparian habitats in Arizona and New Mexico 

has been lost or degraded due to anthropogenic land 

clearing, habitat fragmentation, river damming and impoundment, overgrazing, and addition of fertilizers and 

agricultural chemicals (Howe and Knopf 1991). Native 

cottonwood/willow (Populus/Salix) riparian forest is now 

considered one of North America’s rarest forest types 

(Johnson 1989). Resulting from and compounding these 

anthropogenic changes is the widespread establishment 

of exotic plant species (Westbrooks 1998). It has been 

estimated that at the current rate of spread exotic plants 

will dominate all southwestern riparian ecosystems 

within 50 to 100 years (Howe and Knopf 1991).

A particularly successful exotic in the Southwest is 

tamarisk or saltcedar (Tamarix), an exotic tree from the 

Eastern Hemisphere that was introduced to the United 

States in the early 1800s for stabilization of eroding 

stream banks and use in wind breaks (DeLoach 1997). 

Tamarisk is quickly becoming the dominant vegetation 

type in southwestern riparian ecosystems (Hunter and 

others 1985, Brown and Johnson 1989) and it is thought 

that potential increases in average global temperatures 

and aridity will only further the spread of tamarisk and 

the decline of native plant species (Marshall and Stoleson 

2000). Introduced tamarisk alters the abiotic environment 

of southwestern riparian ecosystems by changing soil 

salinity, ground water availability, and fire frequency 

(Cohan and others 1979, Brotherson and others 1984, 

DeLoach 1997, Lovich and DeGouvenain 1998). In addition, tamarisk introduction, and associated loss of native 

riparian vegetation, is affecting faunal communities and 

could potentially result in the loss of approximately half 

of the avian species that breed in the Southwest (Knopf 

and others 1988).

In order to curtail future negative impacts of tamarisk 

on native ecosystems, many federal, state, and tribal agencies are undertaking aggressive campaigns to reduce or 

eradicate tamarisk in the Southwest through mechanical, 

chemical, and biological control (Fleishman and others 

2003). However, many such efforts are being undertaken 

on a site-specific basis without sufficient quantitative 

data on the value of tamarisk to wildlife, specifically 

avifauna. Although development of broad management 

guidelines is difficult due to the variability of tamarisk 

habitats and the scale of infestation (Szaro 1980, Knopf 

and others 1988), site-specific data and management 

policies can lead to erroneous conclusions regarding the 

desirability and efficacy of tamarisk removal programs 

across the Southwest (Knopf and others 1988). In this 

paper, I recommend that more research be completed on 

the local and regional use of tamarisk by avifauna and 

that a classification system of tamarisk vegetation types 

be developed to aid in defining which types of tamarisk 

are most useful and detrimental to wildlife. However, 

tamarisk control actions already underway or planned 

for the near future cannot wait for the results of future 

scientific projects. For those control programs, results 

from this paper suggest that monotypic stands of tamarisk 

that are sparse and lower-statured should be a priority for 

removal, while stands that are structurally and floristically diverse can function as temporary replacements for 

native vegetation for a number of riparian bird species. 

Regardless of which types of tamarisk are removed, intensive tamarisk removal projects that eradicate tamarisk 

and leave areas bare of woody overstories and/or understories, without restoring native vegetation in the near 

term, might threaten the local persistence of many native 

birds. At the very least, tamarisk removal projects should 

be accompanied by studies of birds and other organisms. 

Such studies are essential to determine whether tamarisk 

control projects achieve their targeted goals.
284 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 287

Public Purpose Marketing

Watson and Herath (1999) surmised from recent 

research on public lands recreation fees that support 

for fees is strongest when the fees are to be used for the 

public purpose of the place visited. For instance, visitors 

to the Desolation Wilderness in California most support 

use of fees to maintain or restore wilderness conditions 

(Vogt and Williams 1999). Also, in a national sample of 

U.S. residents, less than half supported fees for providing 

restroom facilities on any public lands (Bowker and others 1999). Winter and others (1999) found that the level 

of trust people had in the administering agency was the 

most significant predictor of general attitudes towards, 

and amounts respondents were willing to pay for, daily 

and annual recreation passes. This research suggests 

that many things besides what the visitor encounters 

on a single visit influences how the visitor evaluates 

management policies. Borrie and others (2002a) suggested a focus on the relationship between the public and 

Monitoring the Relationship Between the Public and 

Public Lands: Application to Wilderness Stewardship in 

the U.S.

Alan Watson, Research Social Scientist, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute, 

USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Missoula, MT

William Borrie, Associate Professor, College of Forestry and Conservation, 

Department of Conservation and Society, The University of Montana, Missoula, MT

Abstract—Stakeholders in wilderness, and other public lands, have varying opinions 

on how well the land management agencies reflect their values and respond to their 

needs in management, and they therefore vary in their level of commitment and attachment to these places and the activities that occur there. Establishing baseline measures 

and monitoring indicators of the relationship between the public and wilderness lands 

can provide efficient evaluations of many management activities. Examples include 

protection of traditional relationships for indigenous people, and the enhancement and 

protection of relationships between the resource and both local and distant populations 

of stakeholders.

Most social science monitoring by wilderness managers in the U.S. has focused on either 

visitors’ perceived quality of experiences or a small set of commonly used indicators 

of threats to those experiences (Watson and Williams 1995). Measures of satisfaction, 

perceptions of crowding, number of encounters with other visitors while traveling 

and at campsites, perceptions of recreation visitor impacts to soil and vegetation, and 

other commonly used social science indicators imply a customer orientation between 

the agency and the public. The primary evaluation of how well public land managers 

are doing in their stewardship responsibilities is reflected through the quality of these 

transactions. That is, public land managers have been judged by their ability to provide 

particular conditions utilized during a visit.

Recent research has, however, suggested that stewardship responsibilities may also be 

evaluated through indicators of the relationship that is created, protected or restored 

through public lands management activities (Alessa and Watson 2002, Shroyer and others 2003). This approach, described as public purpose marketing by Borrie and others 

(2002a) and Watson and Borrie (2003), emphasizes understanding relationships, in 

addition to monitoring transactions, as the primary stewardship responsibility of public 

land managers. The purpose of this paper is to describe why wilderness monitoring 

programs should include protocol for monitoring relationships between people and 

wilderness.
288 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

public land as a guide to marketing in the public sector. 

This relational framework can also guide monitoring to 

determine success in stewardship of relationships with 

wilderness.

Relational Marketing

For the purposes of marketing in the public sector, a 

focus on relationships between the managing agency and 

the public as primary stakeholders (both customers and 

partners) has been proposed as a feasible and appropriate 

conceptual framework (Borrie and others. 2002a, Watson 

and Borrie 2003). A transaction with a customer is said 

to have a distinct beginning, short duration, and sharp 

ending (Dwyer and others 1987). A relational exchange, 

on the other hand, builds from previous contacts, is longer 

in duration and reflects an ongoing process. When providing services for the public through the development of 

programs on public lands, the more appropriate view of 

“customer service” would probably be the development 

or fostering of a relationship between the members of the 

public and the places that have been established on their 

behalf as public lands, such as wilderness.

Morgan and Hunt (1994) emphasize theoretical and 

empirical research on commitment and trust as the primary indicators of successful relational marketing. Support 

for public agency actions also depends on confidence 

in efforts that recognize responsibility to current and 

future generations and efforts to meet the public purpose 

(legislation or policy mandates), versus vested-interest 

demands (Watson and Borrie 2003).

Anderson and Narus (1991) acknowledge that not 

everyone desires the same relationship with a producer 

of goods or services. They suggest that an organization 

may need to pursue both transactional and relational 

marketing simultaneously, and that customers may 

exist on a continuum of transactional to collaborative 

exchanges. In the public sector, however, members of 

the public are, by definition, involved in a collaborative 

relationship with the stewardship agency taking responsibility for implementation of public policy. While we 

are suggesting that a collaborative relationship exists for 

all people, we do acknowledge that the level of commitment or involvement with the services provided by an 

agency and the level of trust instilled among members of 

the public may vary substantially. Relational marketing 

suggests that a focus on understanding variation in trust, 

commitment, and personal values will be paramount 

in developing and implementing public policy to meet 

the mandates or purpose of public lands (Garbarino & 

Johnson 1999, Morgan & Hunt 1994, Moorman, and 

others 1993, Watson 2000).

Trust

Trust is widely viewed as an essential ingredient for 

successful relationships (Berry 1995, Dwyer and others 

1987). Trust is one of the underlying foundations of 

any form or action of government. Without trust, public 

agencies operate with weakened mandate and support. 

The public grants the right for any public organization 

to operate. Putnam (2000) found that trust and engagement in the public arena go hand in hand. Conversely, 

if communities believe they are not fairly and truthfully 

represented there is great potential for withdrawal of 

political and social support (Miller 1974).

Until very recently, studies of trust in organizations or institutions were virtually unknown (Earle and 

Cvetkovich 1995). Two dominant views of trust for 

organizations have emerged recently, however. The 

more traditional view is that trust is based on confidence in competence, objectivity, fairness, consistency 

or predictability and caring, or the perception of good 

will. In recognition that this traditional view requires a 

generally unattainable level of knowledge of complex 

social systems, Earle and Cvetkovich (1995) suggest an 

alternative view: people judge the similarity of values 

they hold to those expressed by an organization. Trust is 

then quantified in terms of perceptions of shared values, 

direction, goals, views, actions and thoughts (Winter and 

others 1999).

Commitment

Another strong influence on relationships between 

organizations and stakeholders is level of commitment, 

which is defined by Gundlach and others (1995) as having three components: 1) an instrumental component or 

level of investment, 2) an attitudinal component or level 

of psychological attachment, and 3) a temporal dimension or length of time of the commitment. Interestingly, 

in an application to wilderness, Williams and others 

(1999) found that more trips to wilderness, more trips to 

Desolation Wilderness, and residing closer to Desolation 

Wilderness (suggesting high temporal commitment, high 

investment and high attachment) all tend to be associated with weaker support for camping fees at Desolation 

Wilderness by visitors there. Commitment varies with 

evaluation of this particular policy and understanding 

commitment can help us understand public response to 

this policy.

Social responsibility and public values

Even in corporate America, the concept of social 

responsibility can take on a new emphasis in development of products and in research on customer attitudes 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 289

(Drumwright 1994). The adoption of non-economic 

criteria in customer decision making (criteria other than 

price, or relationship between price and quality) has led 

to greater understanding of how some purchase decisions pose social dilemmas and prompt moral reasoning 

(Drumwright 1994). Samli (1992) also describes social 

responsibility in the private sector and those who want 

to make a profit but who also care. In the public sector, 

it is mandated that the government agency respond to 

stakeholders and the public purpose of the places and 

resources it manages.

In the public sector social responsibility is a mandate 

in the delivery of services and carrying out of the legislation and policy that guide a public agency. Recent 

research on wilderness visitors (Glaspell and others 

2003, Patterson and others 1999) and local communities (Watson and others 2004, Whiting 2004) suggests 

there are many aspects of relationships people have with 

wilderness beyond the ones specified in the Wilderness 

Act. The public purpose of these areas often extend well 

beyond what is officially described in legislation and 

policy, but falls within the responsibility of the public 

land manager for stewardship. More information about 

the meanings and values people ascribe to these public 

lands can help public lands management respond to all 

stakeholders.

A Framework for Marketing 

and Monitoring

The use of marketing principles by public land management agencies poses both a threat and a promise to 

the people who depend on wilderness for pleasurable 

outdoor experiences or have deep relationships with wilderness. The most serious threat is from a focus towards 

on-site experiences as a transaction between the agency 

and a visitor, and the temptation to focus too much on 

measures of on-site satisfaction and repeat visitation as 

an indicator of success in meeting the public purpose of 

those places. Although it has been previously suggested 

that “... the goal of government ... service agencies is 

to provide satisfaction to their client groups, which is 

exactly the same goal pursued by private sector organizations” (Crompton and Lamb 1984, p. 37), we suggest 

that marketing or monitoring focused on a simple transaction with the public as a customer is too narrow. Not 

only are there methodological concerns with satisfaction 

measures, they may yield little information on the quality of the visitor experience or on relationships with the 

public lands (Borrie and Birzell 2001). Instead, a focus 

on the relationship between the public and those public 

recreation land management agencies, with emphasis 

on trust, commitment, social responsibility, and public 

values should be a guiding principle when employing 

marketing principles and developing monitoring protocols in the public sector.

Applications to Wilderness: Aspects of 

Relationships to Monitor

Following the conclusions of Shroyer and others 

(2003), we suggest that all potential wilderness values 

are likely not received by all people at all places. Nor 

should we expect them to be. Not only is there no such 

thing as the ‘average camper’ (Shafer 1969), but a diversity and multiplicity of values are an important feature 

of protected areas (Borrie and others 2002b). There are 

multiple types of relationships with wilderness, commonly ranging from neighboring communities to urban 

residents to recreation visitors, and extending to international communities and future populations (Shroyer 

and others 2003).

The following sections describe research efforts aimed 

at measuring and monitoring the previously described 

dimensions (trust, commitments, and public values) for 

the relationship with wilderness.

Trust

Monitoring the levels of trust that the public has in 

wilderness managers requires an understanding of the 

underlying components of trust. Initially, the public must 

feel that managers fairly understand and represent their 

values and norms of behavior. Secondly, the public must 

be willing to allow managers to operate on their behalf. 

And lastly, the public needs confidence in the managers 

ability to produce suitable results. Without these levels 

of trust, the agency has little license to operate.

A recent research project has been initiated to measure 

levels of trust held by residents of the wildernessproximate Bitterroot Valley of Montana towards the 

U.S. Forest Service (Watson and others 2004). Using a 

telephone survey, three components/precursors of trust 

(shared norms/values; contingent consent; and expectation of outcomes) were measured and used to classify 

residents into high- and low- trust groups. Significant 

differences were found between high- and low- trust 

groups, for example, based on length of time resident in 

the valley, proximity to wilderness and forest boundaries, and whether or not they live in the wildland-urban 

interface.

Establishing this baseline measure of trust and its 

underlying components provides an opportunity to judge 

future relationships between the public and the wilderness managers. The changing composition of high- and 

low- trust groups will be indicative of whose relationship 
290 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to government is strengthening and whose is weakening. 

In addition, overall levels of trust among residents can 

be indicative of the perceived success of management 

initiatives. And finally, the relative change in levels of the 

underlying components of trust can be used to identify 

areas needing attention in order to improve relationships 

with the public.

Commitment

Level of investment (and return)

People invest in wilderness and wilderness yields an 

investment to communities surrounding it. Some special 

provisions in wilderness legislation were aimed at preexisting uses of land and water resources. Without these 

acknowledgements, many of those areas would not have 

been included in the National Wilderness Preservation 

System or the added units would have been much smaller. 

While economic values associated with these “nonconforming” uses are hard to associate with wilderness 

designation, they nonetheless do originate within the 

National Wilderness Preservation System.

Other local economic benefits have been found to 

accrue from outfitted and guided uses, and nearby service industries (hotels, motels, restaurants, etc.) that are 

used by wilderness visitors before or after a wilderness 

visit. Because these businesses are substantially in the 

service industry, there is substantial contribution to 

local economies. There is also a small contribution to 

local economies from sale of retail goods to wilderness 

visitors. Loomis and Richardson (2001) estimate that 

wilderness users spend a total of about $30 per each day 

of a wilderness visit.

Power (1996) has found other economic benefits to local communities from wilderness designation, and those 

come in the form of increased tax revenue originating 

from increasing property values of communities with 

high natural amenities. High quality natural environments 

draw people and businesses to an area. Power (1996) 

suggests that wilderness protection does not impoverish 

communities, but rather it protects the economic future of 

communities by preserving high quality natural environments that are increasing in demand across the nation. 

Florida (2004) similarly describes how quality of place, 

including quality of the natural environment, attracts 

members of the ‘Creative Class’ including scientists, 

engineers, architects, educators, artists, musicians, and 

other knowledge-based professionals to a community. 

Florida suggests that it is this class who will be the engine 

for future economic growth and prosperity. Place he says 

is “the key economic and social organizing unit of our 

time” (2004, p. xix).

Attachment

There has not been a great deal of research to document the more emotional relationships with wilderness. 

Clayton (2003) offers a definition of environmental 

identity as a “sense of connections to some part of 

the nonhuman, natural environment based on history, 

emotional attachment, and/or similarity, that affects the 

ways in which we perceive and act toward the world” 

(p. 45) Williams and others (1992) explored emotional 

and symbolic attachment to place among wilderness 

visitors, and concluded that describing visitors’ attachments to wilderness places can capture the connections 

between people and geographic areas directly. This 

direct type of indication of a relationship is much more 

preferable than more indirect indicators such as use and 

user characteristics.

There are many different forms of attachments to 

wilderness, some of which are long held traditions or 

representations of heritage. While the Wilderness Act 

was most likely referencing activities like horse packing, canoeing, and camping, historical activities may or 

may not be referred to today as traditional. In addition 

to the activities of hunting, fishing, and gathering (berries, mushrooms, medicinal plants, etc.) of indigenous 

and other rural people of Alaska, there are other historic 

attachments to wilderness.

Relationships to wilderness mean more than just a 

single transaction or visit. Indeed, in the Frank Church 

– River of No Return Wilderness, a study of jet boat users on the Salmon River, a use allowed under the Central 

Idaho Wilderness Act of 1980, revealed respondents 

who resented being called visitors to the area (Watson 

and others 2004a). Instead, deeply rooted historical 

bonds cause them to organize their lives around this 

place. Respondents acknowledged that their ability to do 

physically demanding activities in this wilderness may 

diminish over time, but their interest in spending time 

where they have enjoyed all their lives will not, and jet 

boats were seen as a means to having this experience 

(Patterson 1999).

Other emotional values often lie at the heart of relationships with wilderness lands. The Qikiktagrugmiut 

expressed the emotional values they attach to the Western 

Arctic Parklands Wilderness (Whiting 2004) as including 

spiritual, emotional and physical health and humility. In 

Ravalli County, Montana, local residents expressed an 

emotional attachment to the Bitterroot Front because of 

its unique physical features that they have easy access 

to (Gunderson and others 2004). This wilderness landscape was also found to create identity for the people 

who live there. The documentation of all these attachments (emotional, symbolic, traditional, and historical) 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 291

is necessary for a full accounting of the management of 

wilderness lands.

Temporal commitment

Watson and others (1991) suggested that some of the 

key indicators of temporal commitment may be measures 

of past experience in wilderness and at the particular 

place. Commonly used measures of past experience 

which differentiate among current wilderness visitors 

(Watson and Cronn 1994) include the number of years a 

person has been going to wilderness, the number of trips 

they have taken and the number of trips they normally 

take per year. At a specific place, it is common to ask 

about the number of previous visits and the length of 

time since the first visit.

In a rare attempt to understand the temporal relationship between a population of visitors to a place, instead 

of case studies which commonly focus on only users 

during a study time frame (usually the summer heavy use 

season), Watson and others (2004a) considered the whole 

population of jet boat users on the Salmon River in the 

Frank Church – River of No Return Wilderness in Idaho. 

Insight from this population provided understanding of 

displacement and substitutions past visitors have made 

as use and the resource changed over time. While levels 

of temporal commitment may remain relatively constant, 

the form and location of visits change.

Public values

Two approaches for the monitoring of public values 

towards wilderness and other protected areas are current. 

Borrie and others (2002b) and Johnson and others (2004), 

for example, have taken psychometric, survey-based 

methods, while Shroyer and others (2003) and Williams 

(2000) have adopted a more social constructionist, interview-based approach. Both strive to identify the qualities 

of wilderness that are most important to, and valued by, 

the public. Managers have a responsibility to understand 

and map these values, partially as a demonstration of a 

commitment by the agency to the public.

In Ravalli County, Montana, a project to understand 

local values associated with the Bitterroot Front (which 

is dominated by the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness) found 

descendants of white settlers expressing strong traditional or historic values associated with this landscape 

(Gunderson and others 2004). But these places also have 

historical value to the Salish-speaking (indigenous) people 

who were removed to the Flathead Indian Reservation. In 

Alaska, research was recently initiated to obtain a better 

understanding of the local values the native Inupiaq people 

of Kotzebue (the Qikiktagrugmiut) attach to the Western 

Arctic Parklands Wilderness. From interviews with those 

in the village currently active in hunting and gathering 

activities on these lands, Whiting (2004) described the 

economic values of self-sufficiency and survival (personal and family). The Qikiktagrugmiut described these 

traditional values as identity (personal and community), 

traditional way of life, and personal growth.

Public values of wilderness extend well beyond the 

boundaries, with many off-site benefits. For example, 

there are local economic benefits associated with agricultural uses of water originating within wilderness. 

While there are many negative ecological effects of 

disturbing the hydrologic connectivity of wilderness 

watersheds (Pringle 2001), there are also some positive 

economic benefits from impoundments within wilderness (Cook 2003). In the Bitterroot Valley of Montana, 

an area which is classified as a high desert environment, 

the annual precipitation is only 12.3 inches. Since the 

mid-1800s, agriculture has been a highly productive 

industry in the valley. In the late 1800s and early 1900s, 

farmers constructed dams in the Bitterroot Mountains, 

in what is now the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness. The 

dams capture the spring runoff from snow melt and 

store it until late summer for irrigation purposes. In the 

Bitterroot Valley, the area’s groundwater supply would 

not sustain the county’s population levels without the 

additional water added to the groundwater from irrigation (Finstick 1986). Therefore, these wilderness dams 

not only sustain local agriculture, they are crucial to the 

growing suburban development and quality of life there. 

The available groundwater is an important contributor 

for not only domestic uses such as drinking and bathing, but also for recreation, residential sprinklers, and 

livestock watering.

Conclusions

Visitors to wilderness have a variety of types of relationships with wilderness. If we are interested in these 

relationships and acknowledge our mandated responsibility of stewarding these relationships, we need to 

monitor indicators of it to understand how we are doing. 

Historically, wilderness research has focused on stewardship of the transactions people have with the wilderness 

resource, mostly those who travel as visitors to these 

places. Methods have been developed to monitor visitor 

perceptions of resource conditions, of their reaction to 

social conditions encountered, and obtain reactions to 

interactions with managers of the areas and their policies. Only recently was it seen that many evaluations of 

wilderness policy are rooted in larger contexts than just 

individual visits to a wilderness.

Local communities are not excluded from consideration in the primary values of wilderness listed in the 
292 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

original Wilderness Act, though sometimes they feel 

that way. Studies of local resident and visitor reactions 

to wilderness recreation fees revealed that these reactions 

were most closely related to the level of trust the public 

had in an agency’s ability to manage an area within the 

public purpose designated for that place (Borrie and 

others 2002a). And, in post-fire assessments of social 

impacts at the community level in the Bitterroot Valley 

in 2000, a major issue expressed by the public was the 

lack of trust in the agency’s ability to make decisions that 

reflect local values. Local community members felt that 

decisions were made according to policies developed 

elsewhere, that outside organized groups were forcing 

decisions on agency managers that were not reflective of 

local values, or that even some agency decisions made 

locally were made by temporarily assigned managers 

from elsewhere and that they did not understand local 

values associated with wild lands.

The Qikiktagrugmiut of Alaska worry that someday 

their relationships will become the one described in the 

Wilderness Act, that of “a visitor who does not remain” 

(Whiting 2004). Jet boat users on the Salmon River have 

relationships with the wilderness resource that extend 

well beyond the time wilderness protection was extended 

to these lands and waters, going much longer and deeper 

than most recreational visitors. And the people who live 

in Ravalli County, Montana, are who they are partly because of the Wilderness which is so accessible to them.

A new era of stewardship is facing us, with not only expectations of stewarding our public lands, but also deeply 

cognizant of our role in stewarding the relationship between the public and public lands. Local communities 

are vocal in their assertion that we need to understand 

the values they receive from wilderness and other lands 

and demonstrate to them that we consider these values 

in making decisions, while also meeting the primary 

intent of the legislation and policy that guide us in our 

management decisions.

References

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2002. Wilderness in the circumpolar north: searching for 

compatibility in ecological, traditional, and ecotourism 

values. 2001 May 15-16; Anchorage, AK. U.S. Department 

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294 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The Problem

The plant genus Tamarix includes several weedy 

species that have proven to be very successful invaders of prime riparian habitats in much of the western 

United States. They primarily invade the banks of rivers, streams, and reservoirs, but in some places they are 

moving into adjacent upland areas where they displace 

native vegetation. These foreign plants originated in 

Eurasia and Africa in semi-arid environments where their 

unusual biological characteristics developed. There are 

approximately 54 species in the genus Tamarix; of these 

approximately 10 have been introduced into the United 

States. It now appears that several of these species can 

interbreed to form new hybrid forms of saltcedar. Since 

they were introduced to the United States, they have been 

able to colonize millions of acres due to their aggressive 

invasive abilities and a lack of natural enemies which 

might have kept their spread in check.

The most commonly encountered Tamarix plants 

include Tamarix ramosissima (saltcedar), T. chinensis 

(Chinese tamarisk), and T. parviflora (smallflower 

tamarisk). Of these, Tamarix ramosissima is the most 

widespread and the weed which attracts the most research 

attention although saltcedar and Chinese tamarisk appear 

to be very closely related.

The negative impacts of salt cedar have been documented by various researchers in various regions where 

salt cedar has successfully colonized significant amounts 

of riparian ecosystems. These negative impacts include 

the following:

Luxury water consumption by this invasive weed is 

cited as a universal threat across the region to sustainable stream and river flows, to reliable water supplies 

for irrigation in agriculture, and for water demands by 

increasing urbanization which is occurring in many 

areas where salt cedar is found. Salt cedar can have a 

profound negative impact on stream and underground 

hydrology, to the point where streams or reservoirs 

can dry up due to water use by salt cedar.

Salt cedar, which was originally introduced for stream 

bank stabilization, has often done too good a job of 

stabilizing stream banks to the point where channel 

characteristics have been dramatically altered. In 

severe cases, flood plains surrounding streams have 

silted in due to the impediment salt cedar presents to 

flowing water, thereby forcing the streams into ever 

narrower channels. In some unusual cases, salt cedar 

becomes so dense that water flow ceases.

Salt cedar accumulates salt in its scale-like leaves, 

and when they drop to the soil surface, these leaves 

increase the salt contents of surface soil layers to the 

1.

2.

3.

The Politics and Science of Tamarisk

Philip Westra, Professor, Weed Science, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, CO

Abstract—Tamarisk is a woody invasive weed of riparian areas which has galvanized 

an amazing array of scientists, politicians, ranchers, farmers, tribal people, and many 

other interested parties because of its devastating impacts on natural ecosystems and 

valuable water ways in the west. Rarely has a single plant become such a catalyst for so 

many people to use as a “poster child” for a variety of interesting issues. Among these 

issues are water resource issues, soil quality, land use issues, wildlife habitats, access 

to federal funds to support local community initiatives, and support for research on a 

plant with an amazing ability to invade and alter natural habitats. This collective effort 

to understand and manage a major water robbing plant in riparian ecosystems is due to 

the efforts of many people, many organizations, and to the vision provided by a group 

such as the tamarisk coalition. The science of tamarisk is currently focused primarily 

on genetic diversity, biological, chemical, and mechanical control, mapping of tamarisk 

infestations, flooding impacts on tamarisk dynamics, wildlife impacts, and ecosystem 

restoration. Because tamarisk is spreading at such a large scale, significant resources 

will be required to halt the negative impacts causes where it invades.

Political action by congress and many agencies suggest that the necessary resources to 

support tamarisk science, education, and management may help in the battle to control 

this invasive weed. Tamarisk is providing a novel and revealing project around which 

both rural and urban citizens can rally for economic, environmental, and recreational 

benefits.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 295

point where many native species cannot germinate 

or thrive.

Salt cedar commonly creates dense monoculture 

stands which exclude desirable native species, thereby 

altering riparian biodiversity and adversely impacting 

recreational use of riparian areas for hunting, fishing, 

and camping. Heavy salt cedar stands can be prone 

to intense fires which can themselves alter the plant 

community. Once salt cedar becomes established, it is 

very difficult for other desirable species to penetrate 

and dominate such degraded plant communities.

The Politics of Salt Cedar

Many scientists and people knowledgeable about 

riparian ecosystems have known for more than 20 years 

that salt cedar was an aggressive invader that presents 

serious challenges for management. Over the past 4 

years, many people have helped make politicians and 

policy makers aware of the threats salt cedar poses to 

both rural and urban populations. Much of the increased 

political interest in salt cedar is driven by drought, water 

conservation, and water law concerns. Managing salt 

cedar in infested water ways is seen as a cost effective 

way to improve water use efficiency while improving 

the environment of riparian ecosystems. Groups such as 

the Tamarisk Coalition from Grand Junction, CO, have 

helped educate and inform members of congress of the 

seriousness of the salt cedar issue. In particular, Tim 

Carlson of the Tamarisk Coalition has been instrumental 

in educating people at many levels about salt cedar issues, and in bringing different groups together to attack 

salt cedar. Researchers and citizens from Texas and 

New Mexico have also had a major impact on getting 

politicians to support salt cedar legislation. Both houses 

of congress have now passed salt cedar management 

legislation and once funding is appropriated to support 

these efforts, up to $100,000,000 may be available to 

support management and research efforts on salt cedar. 

Because of its strong negative impact on water issues, 

salt cedar has become a “poster child weed” for and 

amazing coalition of groups and organizations who all 

hope to work together to battle salt cedar. While some 

states have dedicated commendable dollars to combat 

salt cedar, management at a regional level will require 

substantially bigger sums of financial support. Ongoing 

political activities must be targeted at getting funding 

appropriated to support salt cedar management and 

research activities.

4.

In the weed science community, increased interest in 

salt cedar research and management has been evident 

in the 2004 Salt Cedar Symposium sponsored by the 

Western Society of Weed Science in Colorado Springs, 

CO. Many of the PowerPoint presentations from this 

symposium will be posted at the www.invasivespecies.

gov website. In March of 2004, Team Tamarisk held 

a workshop in Albuquerque, NM, to bring together 

researchers and land managers at a national level to 

discuss and coordinate salt cedar mapping and management activities. The compiled results of this important 

meeting, attended by nearly 400 people, is now available 

at their web site.

The national Weed Science Society of America has 

appointed a special “salt cedar committee” to coordinate 

research, education, and management options developed 

by the weed science community. Our activities include 

collaborations with plant ecologists, precision mapping 

experts, biocontrol experts, and molecular biology scientists who bring special skills to the complex family 

of species in the genus Tamarix. Integrated multi-scale 

mapping of salt cedar in the United States is being coordinated through the USGS program of Dr. Tom Stohlgren 

in Ft. Collins, CO. This effort is a web based effort to 

allow people to input salt cedar monitoring data into a 

centralized data base showing where salt cedar occurs. 

Researchers from Colorado State University and the 

Denver Botanical Gardens have teamed up with the 

Colorado state weed coordinator Eric Lane to launch an 

ambitious salt cedar project on the upper Arkansas River, 

where the integrated effects of mechanical, chemical, 

biological, and ecological control will be evaluated over 

several years. While each of these four major control 

tactics has its strengths and weaknesses, it likely will 

require an integrated approach to provide long term salt 

cedar management. In the process, it will be important 

to support on going salt cedar research with the hope of 

developing new tools to combat this invasive weed.

Selected informative salt cedar web sites:

http://www.invasivespecies.gov/education/workshopJun96/index.html

http://www.tamariskcoalition.org/

http://www.montana.edu/wwwpb/pubs/mt9710.html

http://invasivespecies.gov/profiles/saltcedar.shtml

http://www.invasivespecies.gov/teamtam/

http://squall.nrel.colostate.edu/cwis438/tmap/index.

html
296 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Growing populations exert increasing pressure in 

urban areas to develop urban land uses, which can create observable impacts on that natural environment that 

can degrade ecosystem conditions. Our research seeks 

to better understand the interplay among social systems, 

regulatory processes, land cover change and ecosystem 

functions in areas undergoing urbanization (fig. 1). We 

have focused on a specific ecosystem attribute, vegetated 

riparian buffers, in urban areas, with the overall goal of 

clarifying the linkages shown in figure 1. This paper 

presents results on vegetated buffer loss in three cities 

that experienced significant population growth over a 

7-year period in the Pacific Northwest of the USA, and 

discusses regulatory and geographic constraints that are 

likely related to the resource losses observed.

Changes in Riparian Vegetation Buffers in Response to 

Development in Three Oregon Cities

J. A. Yeakley, Associate Professor, Environmental Science, C. P. Ozawa, Professor of Urban 

Studies and Planning, and A. M. Hook, Research Associate, Environmental Science, 

Portland State University, Portland, OR

Abstract—Riparian vegetation buffer loss was investigated for three cities with contrasting local regulatory controls in urbanizing northwest Oregon. The cities examined were 

Hillsboro, Oregon City and Portland, all having experienced high rates of population 

increase in the 1990s. All cities are covered under Oregon’s land use law that provides 

goals for the protection of open space and natural resources. On the municipality level, 

regulatory controls in Portland included a system of environmental zoning for riparian 

area protection, while regulatory controls on development in riparian areas in Hillsboro 

and Oregon City were less stringent. Digital aerial photographs covering buffer areas 

within 200 m of all permanent streams for these cities were digitized for the years 1990 

and 1997 using criteria including minimum inter-patch distance of 5 m for adjacent 

classes and minimum patch area of 20 m2. Cover classes were divided into vegetation 

areas adjacent to stream and total, as well as woody and unmanaged vegetation areas. 

Banding analysis was performed for these vegetation coverages for several buffer widths 

out to 100 m from streams. Results for the 1990 to 1997 period showed larger losses 

for unmanaged adjacent vegetation 100 m from stream for Hillsboro and Oregon City 

(≥1.5 percent/year) than for Portland (<1 percent/year). For adjacent tree vegetation 

within a 100 m buffer width, again Hillsboro and Oregon City had higher rates of loss 

(>1 percent/year), while Portland lost trees in the 100 m buffer at a lower rate (<1 percent/year). Factors explaining these lower rates of riparian buffer loss for Portland may 

include both a higher amount of riparian area in public ownership and more stringent 

local regulatory controls on development in riparian buffers. These results also demonstrate that vegetated riparian buffers continue to be lost due to development in growing 

Oregon municipalities regardless of the level of regulatory protection.

Figure 1. Research Context. Linkages among boxes represent 

relationships under investigation in this research overall.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 297

Vegetated Riparian Buffers

Generally, riparian buffers can be disconnected, compressed and eliminated by urban development. Riparian 

areas are particularly susceptible to impacts associated 

with development (Budd and others 1987). Conservation 

of riparian zones in urban and industrial areas has usually been limited to narrow borders along streambanks, 

if at all (Naiman and others 2000). Protection of riparian 

buffers has been singled out for protective policy in the 

Portland metropolitan region (Furfey and others 1997). 

Conditions of the vegetated zone along stream banks are 

positively related to stream water and wildlife habitat 

quality. Studies have concluded that minimal buffer 

widths necessary to maintain stream water quality, native 

vegetation and wildlife habitat range from at least 20 m 

to as much as 200 m (Lowrance and others 1984, Castelle 

and others 1994, Naiman and Decamps 1997, O’Neill 

and Yeakley 2000, Hennings and Edge 2003).

Regulatory Framework

Oregon is distinguished by its passage of one of the 

USA’s first statewide land use planning laws in 1973. 

Among the law’s 19 goals are provisions to limit the 

expansion of urban areas and to protect the state's open 

areas and natural resources. The law sets a framework 

for local governments to address stream bank protection 

through comprehensive planning (Abbott and others 

1996). The 24 cities and towns and three counties in 

the Portland metropolitan area (fig. 2) develop comprehensive plans independently, but are expected to act 

consistently with guidelines set by Metro, the regional 

planning authority. Considerable discretion with respect 

to management strategy to protect stream banks remained 

in the hands of local planners and decision makers until 

1998, when Metro assumed a more aggressive stance 

toward riparian buffers. Through functional plans pertaining to water quality and flood management, Metro 

set explicit standards to which the region’s cities and 

counties were given a specific period of time to amend 

their local plans. By 2002, not only were cities expected 

to be in compliance, but land use changes that resulted 

from decisions prior to the amendments were expected 

to have been fully implemented.

Vegetation Losses in Northwestern 

Oregon

In spite of this relatively progressive regulatory statelevel land use framework to curb the degradation of 

natural and agricultural areas in Oregon, it is becoming 

clear that enormous losses of vegetated land have yet occurred in urbanized areas of the Willamette Valley over 

past decades. A study recently concluded by American 

Figure 2. Locations and Stream Networks of the Three Study Cities. Shown is the greater metropolitan 

area of Portland, Oregon, including the urban growth boundary (UGB). Permanent streams and city 

boundaries are shown for Hillsboro, Oregon City and Portland.
298 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Forests found that tree vegetation in urbanized areas 

of western Oregon has declined by 56 percent over the 

period from 1972 through 2000. Clearly such losses are 

not only occurring in general, but also in critical riparian corridors. While it is likely that increased regulatory 

measures as described above have slowed the rate of loss 

of riparian buffers, regulations on the books alone are 

not sufficient to prevent the degradation of ecosystems 

in urban areas. For example, during one field visit, we 

encountered a recent example where the review process 

failed to enforce the 7.5 m riparian buffer restriction on 

new development for that municipality. In the planning 

and permit decision making process, the protection of 

natural resources is only one among several competing 

objectives. Therefore, provisions are made for a balancing to occur on a case-by-case basis through the use of 

“exceptions” or “variances.” Such features in the regulatory system indicate that losses of riparian ecosystems 

will likely continue in spite of increased regulation.

Study Objective

Our overall goal is to better elucidate the linkages 

among social dynamics, regulatory effectiveness, land 

cover changes and ecological functions, as shown in 

figure 1. In this paper we show some of the initial results 

of our research regarding riparian buffer losses for three 

Oregon municipalities with varying regulatory strategies 

over a 7-year period of high population growth.

Approach

Municipalities Selected

We selected three municipalities in the greater 

Portland, Oregon metropolitan region for intensive 

study: Oregon City, Hillsboro and Portland. Portland 

was chosen as the largest city in Oregon and a city with 

an aggressive approach to protecting natural resources. 

Hillsboro and Oregon City were chosen due to their comparably rapid population growth rates during the 1990s 

(table 1), their physical locations that roughly “bracket” 

the urban growth boundary (UGB) of the metropolitan 

area (fig. 2), as well as their anecdotal reputations as 

communities respectively less and more progressive in 

their attitudes toward resource protection. Regulatory 

controls varied among the cities. As discussed in Ozawa 

and Yeakley (2004), by 1990, Portland had instituted a 

system of environmental zoning (E-zones) for riparian 

area protection, which depending on location relative 

to stream, either outright forbid any new building development or only allow construction of structures that 

follow strict criteria (for example, a low percentage of 

disturbed area allowed, replacement of vegetation, special construction practices). Hillsboro and Oregon City, 

however, had far less stringent regulatory constraints on 

riparian area development. At the county level during 

the 1990s, Hillsboro riparian areas became subject to 

a regulation that prohibited development within 7.5 m 

of streams (although with exceptions that could allow 

developers to encroach within 4.6 m). Oregon City had 

no outright restrictions on riparian development from 

1990 to 1997; rather development in that municipality 

was guided by a series of “overlay districts,” each relating to specific resources and/or landscape conditions 

and hazards (for example, water quality, unstable slopes, 

flood management).

Analysis

Our approach for documenting riparian vegetation 

changes over time in each of the three municipalities consisted of digitizing aerial photographs into four riparian 

vegetation classes for all permanent streams at two points 

in time, 1990 and 1997. We then performed a banding 

analysis where riparian vegetation coverage was measured at several buffer widths out to 200 m from streams 

and changes over time were compared in the context of 

differing regulatory strategies. Our data sources included 

(a) the Metro RLIS database for stream locations and city 

boundaries (Metro 2002), (b) 1997 color orthorectified 

aerial photographs at 1.22 m resolution from Metro, and 

(c) 1990 gray scale photographs at 0.30 m resolution. The 

1990 aerial photographs were purchased as raw digital 

scans and orthorectified to 1997 photos (x and y coordinates) and USGS digital elevation maps (z coordinates) 

using ERDAS Imagine 8.3 software. For each photo, at 

least 12 ground control points were used and the total 

root mean square error was maintained below 1.0. We 

digitized vegetation using ArcGIS 8.x software, from 0 m 

to 200 m from permanent streams and wetland features, 

into four classifications:

Adjacent woody (= trees and shrubs, within 5 m 

distance of a stream and/or other adjacent woody 

cover)

Adjacent unmanaged (= adjacent woody, plus unmanaged grasses within 5 m distance of a stream and/or 

other unmanaged adjacent vegetation cover)

•

•

Table 1. Comparative Data for the Three Study Cities.

Oregon City Hillsboro Portland

1990 Population 14,698 37,520 438,802

2000 Population 25,533 69,883 529,121

Population Increase Rate 74% 86% 21%

Municipal Area 22.1 km2 56.5 km2 375.6 km2

Stream Length 34.0 km 63.5 km 475.8 km
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 299

All woody (= adjacent woody plus non-adjacent trees 

and shrubs)

All unmanaged (=adjacent unmanaged, plus non-adjacent unmanaged vegetation cover)

We maintained a consistent viewing scale of 1:1500 

while digitizing. Our patch delineations followed Schuft 

and others (1999), and used a minimum inter-patch 

distance of 5 m for the adjacent classes, and a minimum 

patch area of 20 m2 (based on a circular crown diameter 

= 5 m). We implemented the “adjacent” versus “all” 

vegetation distinction to track potential changes to riparian corridor habitat quality to account for connectivity 

(Naiman and DeCamps 1997). We included unmanaged 

vegetation in the analysis to account for all vegetation 

changes within our specified buffer widths. We conducted 

a banding analysis of the digitized vegetation classes 

(Schuft and others 1999) for the following distances 

(followed by the corresponding regulatory significance 

where applicable): 7.5 m (25 ft – Washington County 

buffer regulation); 15 m (50 ft – proposed Metro Title 3 

minimum); 22.5 m; 30 m (100 ft – corresponds to 50x100 

ft lot dimension max); 45 m; 61 m (200 ft – proposed 

Metro Title 3 maximum); 100 m; and 200 m (total). 

Our quality assurance steps included: (a) alignment of 

streamline locations provided by Metro were cross-corrected with USGS quadrangles and Metro contour maps; 

(b) if a stream formed a city boundary, streamline was 

snapped to the boundary; (c) shadows truncated from 

photos where determination was possible; (d) field checks 

were conducted for several dozen ambiguous features; 

and (e) digitizing interpretations cross-checked between 

two observers with error < 3 percent. Also, we interpreted 

1997 changes while referring directly to 1990 digitized 

vegetation polygons to minimize interpretation error 

between years. The analysis was conducted exhaustively 

for all streams in the three study municipalities (rather 

than based on a sample or fraction of the streams) to 

account for all landscape changes in riparian buffers in 

these cities from 1990 to 1997. 

Results

At the beginning of the study period, in 1990, significant portions of adjacent riparian vegetation remained on 

the landscapes of these three cities (fig. 3). Unmanaged 

riparian vegetation ranged from approximately 40 

percent cover in Oregon City and Portland at 100 m 

buffer width to nearly 80 percent cover within 7.5 m in 

Hillsboro. Adjacent riparian tree vegetation resources 

also remained, ranging from above 30 percent cover at 

100 m to 60 percent cover at 7.5 m. It should be noted 

that these figures do not include historical streams that 

•

•

have been entirely removed and replaced by culverts, as 

has happened to much of the streams that once existed 

on the east side of Portland.

For all unmanaged vegetation (trees, shrubs, grasses), 

losses tracked in this study from 1990 to 1997 ranged 

from just over 1 percent total in Hillsboro at 7.5 m to over 

11 percent riparian cover lost in Hillsboro at 100 m (fig. 

4). Losses were slightly higher in adjacent vegetation (fig. 

5) compared to all vegetation within the buffer (fig. 4) for 

most buffer widths examined. For example, in Portland 

for all buffer widths for both tree and unmanaged vegetation, adjacent losses (fig. 5) were approximately a 

percentage point higher than for losses of all vegetation in the riparian buffer (fig. 4). Adjacent unmanaged 

vegetation losses topped 12 percent in Hillsboro at 100 

m. Adjacent and all vegetation losses were, however, 

roughly equivalent in Oregon City for most buffer widths 

(figs. 4 and 5). On a percentage basis, losses in both 

adjacent riparian tree and unmanaged vegetation cover 

within 61 m were highest in Oregon City (figs. 4 and 5). 

Portland and Hillsboro were roughly comparable closer 

in, but Hillsboro had the highest losses of all three cities 

at the largest buffer width (100 m).

At 100 m from stream, larger losses were observed for 

unmanaged adjacent vegetation for Hillsboro and Oregon 

City (≥1.5 percent/year) than for Portland (<1 percent/

year). For adjacent tree vegetation within a 100 m buffer 

width, again Hillsboro and Oregon City had higher rates 

of loss (>1 percent/year), while Portland lost trees in the 

100 m buffer at a lower rate (<1 percent/year).

Discussion

Generally, the two cities with lower regulatory stringency experienced larger losses of riparian vegetation at 

all buffer widths. Oregon City experienced the greatest 

losses, signaling that their approach of suggestive overlay districts to protect land-based natural resources was 

not as effective as the more prescriptive approaches of 

Portland or Hillsboro. Hillsboro was a tale of two types of 

vegetation loss during the study period. At short distances 

from streams, Hillsboro experienced the lowest loss of all 

three cities – in part likely due to a county level ordinance 

implemented midway through the 1990s that prohibited 

most development within 7.5 m. At the largest distance 

from stream, however, Hillsboro experienced the greatest 

loss, possibly due to its higher construction rates (number 

of permits relative to total land area) during the 1990s. 

Portland generally experienced the lowest percentage of 

riparian loss. There are two potential explanations for 

Portland’s relative success. The more hopeful explanation is that the environmental zoning implemented in 
300 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 3. Adjacent Riparian Vegetation Cover in 1990. Shown in the upper graph is percent cover for 

adjacent unmanaged riparian vegetation cover at 3 buffer widths (or band widths) in 1990. Shown in 

the lower graph is percent cover for adjacent riparian tree cover at 3 buffer widths in 1990.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 301

Figure 5. Percent Adjacent Riparian Vegetation Lost from 1990 to 1997. Shown in each graph are percent 

riparian area lost for both adjacent tree and adjacent unmanaged vegetation from 1990 to 1997 for 

the cities of Oregon City, Hillsboro, and Portland.

Figure 4. Percent All Riparian Vegetation Lost from 1990 to 1997. Shown in each graph are percent 

riparian area lost for both all tree and all unmanaged vegetation from 1990 to 1997 for the cities of 

Oregon City, Hillsboro, and Portland.
302 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

1989 (Ozawa and Yeakley 2004) was actually effective 

at lowering riparian losses. A secondary possibility is 

that Portland’s streams were protected due to having 

a large number of streams located on public park land 

(for example, the ca. 2000 ha Forest Park, located in 

the northwest part of the city, fig. 2). Further analysis is 

necessary to determine which factor was more important 

to Portland’s success, but we suggest that both factors 

(environmental zoning, streams located in public parks) 

were in play. It should be noted that our analysis does 

not include streams that have been permanently removed, 

and here Portland has suffered the most historical loss of 

streams among the three cities.

While our comparison of the three cities shows differential amounts of loss, an overriding result is that riparian 

buffer loss occurred regardless of either state or local 

regulatory efforts. Riparian vegetation loss appears to 

be an unfortunate consequence of population growth and 

development activities, and municipalities have yet to 

factor in the ecological or economic costs of such losses 

in terms of ecosystem services (Daily and others 1997). 

We are well underway with an effort to further document losses for these cities from 1997 to 2002, and our 

preliminary findings indicate that these loss trends have 

continued. Thus, while Portland shows hopeful signs of 

stemming the loss of riparian vegetation resources, our 

results show that the regulatory tools employed to date 

will likely be only partially successful at best. 

Future research that controls for topographic, economic, land use and ownership factors may clarify the 

relative effectiveness of different regulatory approaches. 

Additionally, refining our understanding of the types, 

distribution and patterns of riparian vegetation that satisfy 

ecological functions, such as habitat connectivity, may 

enable us to develop more targeted management tools, 

focus implementation investments, and thereby increase 

overall effectiveness. Also promising and not to be overlooked are the pro-active efforts of both citizens groups 

and municipalities to restore riparian vegetation areas. 

Each of these approaches suggests compelling avenues 

for research to inform management strategies for preventing riparian resource losses during development.

Acknowledgments

Funding for this research was provided by a grant 

from Portland State University. Research assistants 

on the project have included Shannon Axtell, Richard 

Friday, Jennifer (Shively) Hughes, Melanie Sharp, and 

Jessica Sladek.

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ecology and management in multi-land use watersheds. 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 303

Hydrosphere Systems and 

Processes
304 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Tropical reef-building corals have declined to unprecedented levels during the last three decades (Antonius 

1973, Gardner and others 2003, Glynn 1984, Hughes and 

Tanner 2000). Multiple stressors have been identified that 

could have led directly, or interactively, to bleaching, disease, and decline in condition. Among these is elevated 

water temperature, increased exposure to solar radiation, 

and degraded water quality, each related in some manner 

to global climate or land use changes. Consequences of 

bleaching and disease vary, depending on the severity of 

the stressors and the coral species affected. Some corals 

recover from a bleaching episode, while others may not. 

Both bleaching and disease can lead to loss of living 

coral, algal overgrowth, and eventual disintegration of 

the calcified skeleton.

Linkages between coral bleaching and global climate 

change are compelling. Massive episodes of coral bleaching have accompanied the last several El Niño phases 

of the Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These events have 

occurred world-wide, irrespective of other impacts 

from local anthropogenic stressors (Hoegh-Guldberg 

1999, Wilkinson and others 1999). Greater frequency, 

intensity, and spatial extent of bleaching have been documented since the 1982-1983 ENSO. An exceptionally 

strong 1997-1998 ENSO exhibited record sea-surface 

temperatures and coincided with the most geographically widespread and severe bleaching in history (Glynn 

1984, Wilkinson 1998). Up to 95 percent of the living 

coral reefs from the central Indian Ocean and its margins were bleached, and bleaching occurred along the 

margins of the Caribbean Sea, the Indian Ocean and the 

Pacific Ocean. Although ENSO phases are determined 

by conditions measured in the Pacific Ocean, climate and 

weather patterns are altered worldwide (Wellington and 

others 2001). In the Caribbean, ENSO phases generate 

higher sea water temperatures and calm, stratified water 

conditions (doldrums) that allow increased penetration 

of solar radiation. These conditions are optimal for coral 

bleaching.

Many corals rely on photosynthetic energy derived 

from algal symbionts found within the polyps, or colonial 

Regional Monitoring of Coral Condition in the Florida Keys

William S. Fisher, Deborah L. Santavy, William P. Davis and Lee A. Courtney, research 

biologists with the United States Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research 

and Development, National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, 

Gulf Ecology Division, Gulf Breeze, FL

Abstract—Tropical reef corals have experienced unprecedented levels of bleaching 

and disease during the last three decades. Declining health has been attributed to 

several stressors, including exposures to elevated water temperature, increased solar 

radiation, and degraded water quality. Consequences of coral bleaching and disease 

vary; some recover, while others lose tissue, die, and succumb to algal overgrowth. In 

2000, a regional monitoring project documented disease prevalence and bleaching 

across 41 km2 of coral reefs in the Florida Keys. Thirty sites were randomly selected 

from a spatially-balanced grid. A radial belt transect (113 m2) was surveyed at each 

site and 100-300 colonies were encountered in each transect. The coral species and 

health status was recorded for each colony. No site had greater than 13 percent disease 

prevalence and ~80 percent of the reef area had <5 percent disease prevalence. The 

survey will be repeated in 2005, but with additional measurements to estimate colony 

size, percent living tissue, and living surface area. These added endpoints are expected 

to provide information on the consequences of bleaching, disease, and other stressors 

on coral communities. Data will be compiled to characterize community composition, 

abundance, age class structure, and survival of different species across the Florida Keys 

reef tract. During a pilot study in 2003, living coral tissue on large colonies of elkhorn 

coral Acropora palmata was considerably less than on small colonies, possibly indicating a major mortality event (for example, hurricane or bleaching) that occurred prior 

to recruitment of the smaller colonies.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 305

units of the coral. Since photosynthesis requires solar 

radiation, these corals are confined to shallow coastal 

waters penetrated by sunlight. Coral reefs are located in 

tropical and sub-tropical oceans that are exposed to the 

most intense solar radiation on Earth (Madronich and 

others 1998). This distribution, however, places corals 

at risk from exposure to ultraviolet light (UV), particularly the damaging UV-B wavelengths (Anderson and 

others 2001, Shick and others 1996). Increased penetration of UV-B to the earth’s surface has been attributed 

to a decline in UV-absorbing ozone in the stratosphere. 

Although stratospheric ozone depletion in the tropics 

is not as great as at the poles, there is concern that any 

increase in the high levels already experienced could 

affect coral health. The most variable aspect of coral 

exposure to UV-B is its penetration through the water 

above reefs. Many local variables such as water quality 

and weather can influence attenuation of UV-B with 

depth. For example, dissolved organic matter absorbs 

UV-B and reduces its penetration, whereas hot, windless conditions create thermal stratification of the water 

column and allow greater UV-B penetration (Zepp and 

Schlotzhauer 1981).

The highly complex three-dimensional structures 

formed by calcified coral skeletons provide a physical 

habitat to support high diversity and abundance of marine 

organisms. It is estimated that a million different marine 

species are dependent upon or utilize coral reef ecosystems. This diverse biota supports numerous subsistence 

and commercial fisheries and is a major attraction for 

tourists. Perhaps even more important is the role that 

coral structures play in coastal shoreline protection. 

Some have estimated that wave and current dissipation 

by coral reefs have protected shorelines at a value ten 

times greater than all other coral ecosystem services 

provided (Costanza and others 1997). The economic 

and ecological benefits of coral reefs are substantial, 

and much of this value can be credited directly to their 

physical presence. 

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Global 

Change Program includes research to facilitate and 

conduct assessments of global change effects on aquatic 

ecosystems to improve society’s ability to respond to 

future consequences. Global change stressors include 

climate variability and change, land use change, and 

ultraviolet radiation. Each of these stressors is believed 

to contribute to the decline of coral reefs, which appear 

particularly sensitive to environmental changes. Because 

coral reefs have survived thousands of years in a relatively unchanged physico-chemical environment, their 

potential as a sentinel ecosystem is high.

Regional Monitoring of 

Disease and Bleaching

The Florida Keys coral reef tract provides an opportunity to investigate the causes and effects of global change 

on coral reefs. It is the third largest barrier reef complex 

in the world and contains reefs in both remote areas and 

near human population centers. Major declines in coral 

health and coral cover have occurred during the last thirty 

years on these reefs. A Coral Reef Monitoring Project 

has been supported by US EPA Region 4 since 1996 to 

compare coral coverage at 160 permanent stations in 

the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). 

From 1996-2000, a 38 percent decline in live coral coverage has been documented (Jaap and others 2000, Porter 

and others 2002, Wheaton and others 2001). Much of this 

loss has been attributed to mortality caused by hurricane 

damage, coral bleaching, and coral diseases (Antonius 

1981, 1985, 1988, Dustan and Halas 1987, Richardson 

and others 1998, Santavy and Peters 1997, Santavy and 

others 1999, 2001, 2004).

A similar survey was conducted by US EPA, Gulf 

Ecology Division (GED) to document the frequency and 

distribution of coral disease and bleaching across the 

entire reef tract in August 2000. Performed in collaboration with FKNMS, 30 stations in the Upper, Middle, 

and Lower Keys; New Grounds; and the Dry Tortugas in 

South Florida were surveyed. An EMAP-type sampling 

protocol was used to select site locations (Summers and 

others 1995). The probability-based design produced 

unbiased estimates of the spatial extent of ecological condition with a quantifiable level of uncertainty 

which measured both the distribution and frequency of 

coral disease in the Florida Keys Tract. The design was 

implemented in three steps: a regional stratification was 

developed, a hexagonal grid was overlaid on the sample 

frame, and then multiple sites were randomly selected 

within the grid cells (Santavy and others 2004). The 

original study area encompassed a nearly 10,000 km2

area within the boundaries of the FKNMS, Biscayne 

National Park (BNP), and the Dry Tortugas National Park 

(DTNP). Areas were eliminated from the sample frame 

were if they were determined by professional judgment 

to contain only dead or geological reef structure. After 

exclusion of these reef areas, the total study area was 

approximately 45 km2 (4100 ha).

A radial belt transect (113 m2) was used to examine, count and identify fifteen coral species, eleven 

diseases, and three bleaching conditions (Santavy and 

others 2001). The distribution of the coral disease was 
306 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

determined by presence or absence at each site, and 

prevalence of disease and bleaching were determined by 

the percent of the susceptible coral community affected at 

each site (fig. 1). Diseases were present in 85 ∀ 9 percent 

(95 percent confidence intervals) of the area sampled, and 

were widely distributed throughout South Florida. While 

the distribution of disease was widespread, the prevalence was generally low. Maximum prevalence at any 

one site was 13 percent, with 2.2 percent of the sampling 

area containing this maximum level. Approximately 31 

percent of the area had 0.4 percent-2 percent prevalence, 

28 percent had 2 percent-4 percent prevalence, and 24 

percent had 4 percent-9 percent prevalence. Future surveys will be used to document trends in the distribution 

and frequency of coral disease in South Florida.

 Disease prevalence across the Florida Keys reef 

tract was considerably less than previous reports. Lower 

prevalence could be a consequence of coral losses 

documented during this period (Santavy and others 2001, 

2004a, 2004b). Other studies have also reported high (38 

percent) coral losses (Porter and others 2002, Wheaton 

and others 2001). Of particular concern has been the dramatic decline of the once dominant reef-building elkhorn 

(Acropora palmata) and staghorn (A. cervicornis) corals 

(Patterson and others 2002).

With continued declines in South Florida corals, the 

EPA research effort has expanded to include characterization of coral condition. New measurements have 

been added to evaluate the cumulative consequences of 

bleaching and disease, as well as other stressors on coral 

individuals and populations. Reef-to-reef comparisons 

of disease prevalence are sometimes confounded by different taxonomic composition (for example, some sites 

do not have susceptible host species). The new condition 

measures are unrelated to taxonomic composition and 

will allow direct comparisons across reefs and geographic 

areas.

Indicators of Coral Condition

Surveys for prevalence and distribution of disease 

across the region provided one measure of coral condition and a baseline for detecting trend. An expanded 

approach was needed to evaluate the consequences of 

disease and other stressors to coral populations. This 

required development of condition indicators that would 

reflect population-level parameters: survival, growth, and 

reproduction. At the same time, application to a regional 

assessment required that numerous sites be surveyed, so 

the amount of time that could be spent at each site was 

Figure 1. Distribution of the coral health indicators as a function of the frequency of occurrence throughout the area 

sampled in 2000. The following coral health indicators included: a) coral disease, b) coral paling (light bleaching), 

c) partially bleached corals affecting 10-50 percent of the total colony, and d) bleached corals affecting greater 

than 50 percent of the total colony.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 307

limited. Three coral condition indicators were proposed 

that required adding only two observations to the existing 

disease survey protocol. These were estimates of total 

coral surface area (TSA; based on size class) and percent 

living coral tissue (%LC).

The new measurements provided meaningful endpoints. Estimates of TSA indicated coral reef structural 

size and complexity (rugosity) and the habitat value 

that accompanies greater surface area. It also afforded 

a record of the cumulative, or historical, capacity of the 

habitat to grow, and sustain corals. Estimation of %LC 

provided a comparison of living tissue vs. dead coral skeleton, and can be used to examine potential associations 

of tissue loss with disease and other stressors. Living 

surface area (LSA) represented the existing capacity of 

the environment to sustain corals. Also, LSA estimated 

the actual amount of living coral (m2) available for 

growth and reproduction.

Although TSA, %LC, and LSA can provide useful 

insight to status and trend of coral populations, it is 

imperative for future management action that declining 

condition is ultimately linked to causes. For coral reefs, 

a major obstacle to establishing causal associations has 

been the variability in reef species composition. For example, disease occurrence is not easily compared across 

reefs that vary in host density. Estimation of TSA, LSA, 

and %LC overcome this obstacle because the measures 

are independent of species composition. They can be 

used to compare reefs across geographical regions, reef 

types, water quality, human influences, and occurrence 

of bleaching and disease. Differences in condition among 

reefs or study areas can then be used to draw associations 

with potential stressors (causative factors) that may be 

degrading corals. Several of these potential stressors were 

measured but not discussed here.

A pilot project was performed in autumn 2003 to 

generate an operational survey plan and to illustrate 

potential interpretations from the candidate indicators. 

Five stations in the Key West area near anthropogenic 

activity and five stations in the more remote Dry Tortugas 

were surveyed. Total Surface Area was estimated through 

classification of corals in size classes (volumetric) and 

assignment of a surface area equal to five times the size 

of one side of a cube containing the size class volume. 

Estimates of %LC were in 20 percent ranges (0-20 percent, 21-40 percent, etc.).

Data from these ten stations showed greater coral 

abundance and total surface area (TSA) at Key West 

stations (table 1), but considerably lower %LC than at 

Dry Tortugas. In fact, despite a dramatically higher TSA 

at Key West (240.9 vs 175.9 m2), the actual living coral 

(LSA) at each study area (fig. 2) was quite similar (136.9 

vs 140.0 m2). The two study areas also differed in species 

diversity, size distributions and the contribution of different species to total coral surface area (tables 2 and 3).

The TSA metric provided an alternate perspective 

for taxonomic distribution. Traditionally, the number of 

colonies of each species provides information on species 

richness. In contrast, TSA provides the relative contributions of different species to community habitat. Agaracia 

agaracites was numerically the dominant species in 

Key West, but because it is a physically small species, 

the surface area contribution was limited in comparison 

Table 1. Number of coral colonies, total estimated surface 

area (TSA), calculated surface area of living coral (LSA) 

and the estimated percent of living coral (%LC) for all 

colonies encountered within the transects at each of five 

stations in the Dry Tortugas and Key West study areas. 

Totals were determined from combined data of all stations 

in each study area.

Number of TSA LSA

Colonies (m2) (m2) %LC

Dry Tortugas

BK06 178 42.4 32.4 76.4

BK07 94 33.1 26.7 80.8

LR05 149 33.4 26.2 78.6

LR06 165 38.1 32.0 84.1

LR07 104 29.0 22.7 78.2

Total 690 175.9 140.0 79.6

Key West

SK01 240 73.8 44.4 60.1

SK02 350 85.1 41.8 49.2

SK03 162 26.5 17.7 66.8

ED01 155 25.8 15.5 59.8

WS03 90 29.6 17.4 58.6

Total 997 240.9 136.9 56.8

Figure 2. Total coral surface area (TSA) at each station in Dry 

Tortugas (left side) and Key West (right side) compared to 

living coral surface area, which was calculated from TSA 

and %LC (2003 survey).
308 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Table 2. Count, size distribution (5 classes) and estimated surface area contribution of 15 species 

recorded from transects at five stations at the Dry Tortugas study area in 2003. Percentage 

contribution to colony number and total surface area of all colonies recorded in Dry Tortugas is also 

shown.*Species not recorded for Key West study area (table 3).

Dry Tortugas Study Area

Colonies Size Distribution (L) Surface Area

Genus species (#)	 (% of total) 1 10 50 100 200 (m2) (% of total)

A. cervicornis 25 3.6 10 10 5 - - 6.2 3.5

A. agaricia 1 0.1 1 - - - - 0.1 0.1

C. natans 1 0.1 - 1 - - - 0.2 0.1

D. clivosa 234 33.9 119 60 44 9 2 62.8 35.7

D. labrynthiformis 2 0.3 - 1 1 - - 0.9 0.5

D. strigosa 59 8.6 28 11 14 3 3 21.8 12.4

D. stokesii 6 0.9 4 2 - - - 0.7 0.4

M. alcicornis 116 16.8 46 51 16 2 1 28.9 16.4

M. annularis 2 0.3 1 - - 1 - 1.1 0.6

M. cavernosa 14 2.0 2 4 6 1 1 7.9 4.5

M. faveolata 24 3.5 3 1 4 2 14 29.2 16.6

P. astreoides 150 21.7 130 20 - - - 11.1 6.3

P. porites 46 6.7 44 2 - - - 2.7 1.5

S. siderea 9 1.3 5 2 2 - - 2.1 1.2

Solenastrea sp.* 1 0.1 - 1 - - - 0.2 0.1

690 100 393 166 92 18 21 175.9 100

Table 3. Count, size distribution (5 classes) and estimated surface area contribution of 22 species 

recorded from five stations at the Key West study area in 2003. Percentage of contribution 

to colony number and total surface area of all colonies recorded in Key West is also shown. 

*Species not recorded for Dry Tortugas study area (table 2).

Key West Study Area

Colonies Size Distribution Surface Area

Genus species (#)	 (% of total) 1 2 3 4 5 (m2) (% of total)

A. cervicornis 3 0.3 - 1 1 1 - 6.2 3.5

A. palmata* 57 5.7 16 6 7 10 18 8.5 20.1

A. agaricia 252 25.3 233 19 - - - 16.1 6.7

C. natans 9 0.9 5 1 - 2 1 4.3 1.8

D. stokesii 10 1.0 5 5 - - - 1.4 0.6

D. clivosa 7 0.7 4 1 1 - 1 2.8 1.2

D. labrynthiformis 8 0.8 6 1 - 1 - 1.6 0.7

D. strigosa 8 0.8 4 1 1 1 1 3.9 1.6

M. meandrina* 3 0.3 - 1 - 1 1 3.0 1.3

M. alcicornis 199 19.9 156 30 13 - - 3.6 9.8

M. complanata* 28 2.8 20 4 2 1 1 6.1 2.5

M. annularis 3 0.3 - 2 - 1 - 1.5 0.6

M. cavernosa 72 7.2 22 21 15 8 6 5.0 4.5

M. faveolata 32 3.2 3 12 1 9 7 5.3 10.5

M. franksii* 7 0.7 - 5 2 - - 2.5 1.0

Mycetophelia sp.* 1 0.1 1 - - - - 0.1 0.1

M. danaana* 2 0.2 1 1 - - - 0.3 0.1

M. ferox* 2 0.2 1 1 - - - 0.3 0.1

P. astreoides 175 17.5 109 55 11 - - 25.7 10.7

P. porites 30 3.0 18 10 1 1 - 5.0 2.1

S. siderea 77 7.7 24 32 10 6 5 30.4 12.6

S. michelini* 12 1.2 7 5 - - - 1.5 0.6

997 100 635 214 65 42 41 240.9 100
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 309

to Porites astreoides and Siderastrea siderea. In Dry 

Tortugas, Diploria clivosa was greatest in abundance 

and surface area.

Because data were collected on individual colonies, 

relationships could be examined at the regional, reef 

and even species level. For example, differences in 

%LC among species (Table 4) could indicate whether 

a particular species has lost more tissue than other species in the same area, or whether the same species has 

lost more tissue in one study area than another. Two 

species, Colpophyllia natans and Montastrea faveolata, 

had low %LC at both study areas, whereas Diploria 

clivosa, Porites astreoides and P. porites exhibited high 

%LC at both study areas. Several species had lower 

%LC in Key West than in Dry Tortugas, including 

Acropora cervicornis, Dichocoenia stokesii, Diploria 

strigosa, Montastrea cavernosa, and Siderastrea siderea

(table 4).

Size estimates also provided useful insights. At both 

study areas, there were high numbers of small individuals and declining abundance with increasing size (fig. 

3). However, TSA and LSA for each size class varied 

between the study areas. For Dry Tortugas, the greatest 

surface area was contributed by coral in the mid-size 

range and in Key West, by corals in the large-size 

range. Most species, like D. clivosa at Dry Tortugas, 

showed a decline in percent living coral for the larger 

size classes. This could be due to chronic losses over 

added years of existence. The %LC for Acropora palmata was substantially different from two other large 

coral species in Key West, Montastrea faveolata and 

M. cavernosa, when examined by size class (fig. 4). 

Colonies greater than the 10L size class exhibited less 

than 10 percent living coral whereas the Montastreids 

retained substantially higher living tissue in even the 

highest (>100L) size class.

Table 4. Average percent living coral ( %LC) for each species 

encountered at five stations in Dry Tortugas and Key West 

in 2003. The number of colonies included in each average 

is denoted in parentheses; N/a denotes no colonies at that 

study area.

Genus species Dry Tortugas Key West

A. cervicornis 95.0 (25) 76.0 (3)

A. palmata N/a 37.4 (57)

A. agaricia 99.0 (1) 98.2 (252)

C. natans 70.0 (1) 76.2 (9)

D. stokesii 94.5 (6) 66.7 (10)

D. clivosa 88.4 (234) 94.9 (7)

D. labrynthiformis 99.0 (2) 88.1 (8)

D. strigosa 86.3 (59) 68.4 (8)

M. meandrina N/a 76.3 (3)

M. alcicornis 94.2 (116) 90.2 (199)

M. complanata N/a 91.0 (28)

M. annularis 65.0 (2) 83.3 (3)

M. cavernosa 83.9 (14) 69.5 (72)

M. faveolata 64.4 (24) 67.8 (32)

M. franksii N/a 70.0 (7)

Mycetophelia sp. N/a 99.0 (1)

M. danaana N/a 99.0 (2)

M. ferox N/a 99.0 (2)

P. astreoides 94.6 (150) 89.5 (175)

P. porites 88.6 (46) 85.0 (30)

S. siderea 79.4 (9) 60.1 (77)

Solenastrea sp. 90 (1) N/a

S. michelini N/a 78.8 (12)

Figure 3. Distribution of coral colonies from Dry Tortugas and 

Key West across five different size class estimates (2003 

survey).

Figure 4. Average percent living coral (%LC) for Montastrea 

faveolata, M. cavernosa, and Acropora palmata from Key 

West stations observed in different size classes (2003 

survey).
310 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Estimating Surface Area 

from Size Classes

Estimates of TSA are an integral component 

of this approach to coral condition. Yet, surface 

areas estimated from volumetric size classes 

do not account for the structural complexities 

unique to each species (for example, branching). 

Nonetheless, a generic, first-order estimate was 

made with the assumption that a cube-shaped 

coral will fill the entire volume of its size class. 

This is reasonable because most corals in a size 

class will actually be smaller than the entire volume, a concession balanced by the lack of any 

consideration for physical complexities that would 

increase surface area.

Refinements to the first-order surface area estimates 

are being made through analysis of digital images of coral 

colonies, similar to the technique described by Bythell and 

others (2001). A series of nine or more photographs were 

taken from various angles around individual colonies of 

various species and size classes. Scale bars and billiard 

balls were placed around the base of a colony (fig. 5) 

as static orientation reference points for generating the 

computer model. The different images were reconciled 

using a computer software program (PhotoModeler7 Pro 

5) designed to produce accurate 3-dimensional models 

from overlapping still photographs. Points were visually 

selected along the natural contours of the specimen and 

linked to produce curved lines that delineated colony 

topography and generated a 3-dimensional model. The 

surface area of the model is automatically calculated by the 

computer as the sum of the component contours. Surface 

area determinations are more accurate with greater numbers of points, curves, and surfaces used to define the coral 

structure. Optimization of the technique is being examined 

through comparison of model output with highly accurate 

surface areas determined by laser scanning.

As expected, preliminary analysis of the 3-dimensional models indicates that surface areas for hemispherical 

coral colonies (for example, brain corals) were generally 

overestimated by the assigned values whereas branched 

colonies (for example, Acropora spp.) were underestimated. Once more accurate estimates for each species 

and size class are available, new surface areas can be 

substituted for the currently assigned values.

Acknowledgments

Disease and coral condition surveys were performed in collaboration with the National Oceanic 

Figure 5. Coral colonies were photographed with gridded scales 

and pool balls as reference points to develop a 3-D computer 

model that depicts contours of the coral surface. Surface 

area of both living (blue) and dead (red) coral is determined 

using commercially-available computer software.

and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National 

Ocean Service and the Florida Keys National Marine 

Sanctuary FKNMS. The support of the scientific staff 

and crews of EPA’s RV ANDERSON and NOAA’s 

RV FOSTER is greatly appreciated. The National Park 

Service provided dive boat support in the Dry Tortugas. 

This work was performed under Scientific Research 

and Collecting Permit #DRTO-2003-SCI-0010, Study # 

DRTO-00007 issued by the National Park Service (Dry 

Tortugas) to D. Santavy, L. MacLaughlin, W. Fisher, 

E. Mueller and W. Davis, and Florida Keys National 

Marine Sanctuary Permit FKNMS-2003-050 issued 

to W. Fisher by FKNMS (NOAAs National Marine 

Sanctuary Program).

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312 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed 

the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program 

(EMAP) to provide tools to monitor and assess the condition of the nation’s freshwater and coastal systems. This 

program was developed by EPA’s Office of Research 

and Development (ORD). EMAP examines associations 

between these indicators and natural and anthropogenic 

stressors. The two major features of EMAP are the 

random, probability based sample site selection and the 

use of ecological indicators. In 1994, Region 10 began a 

partnership with the EPA ORD and the States to begin to 

use an EMAP-type sampling approach in selected areas 

for rivers and streams. These projects are called Regional 

EMAP (R-EMAP), and they use the same indicators and 

sample design as other EMAP projects, but at a smaller 

geographic scale. Table 1 shows the R-EMAP projects 

for Region 10.

In 1999, Western EMAP was initiated to focus on 

the aquatic systems and landscape features of the states 

encompassed by EPA Regions 8, 9 and 10. There are 

three major components of the Program - Coastal, 

Surface Waters (rivers and streams), and Landscapes. 

The Western EMAP is a partnership between EPA, the 

States, and others. All field data for Western EMAP in 

EPA Region 10 is collected by the state and tribal environmental agencies.

Overview of EMAP Surface 

Waters in Region 10

Western EMAP applies tools developed by ORD to 

monitor and assess rivers and streams across the contiguous western States. Water chemistry, physical habitat, 

benthic macroinvertebrate, fish, and periphyton data 

are combined to describe the current river and stream 

conditions. Idaho Department of Environmental Quality 

(IDEQ), Oregon DEQ, Washington DOE, and the Nez 

Perce Tribe have conducted most of the sampling for 

Western EMAP in Region 10.

The Western EMAP surface water component evaluates the ecological condition of rivers and streams at two 

scales (table 1). The broad scale assessment is useful for 

evaluating the overall condition of rivers and streams for 

each State and the entire Region. For this scale assessment, approximately 150 stream sites are in the process 

Use of EMAP Freshwater and Marine Data in EPA 

Region 10

Gretchen A. Hayslip, C. Lorraine Edmond, and Lillian G. Herger, U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency, Seattle, WA

Abstract—The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) designed the Environmental 

Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) to provide tools to monitor and assess the 

condition of the nation’s ecological resources. Since 1993, EPA Region 10 has worked 

with the States in our region to demonstrate the application of the ecological indicators 

and statistical designs developed by EMAP to freshwater and marine assessments.

To illustrate the types of assessment questions that can be addressed with EMAP data, we 

present an example study of the Western Cascades Ecoregion of Oregon and Washington. 

In 1999-2000, Washington Department of Ecology (DOE) and Oregon Department of 

Environmental Quality (DEQ), with assistance from EPA Region 10, collected biological, 

physical habitat, and selected water column chemistry parameters in small streams of 

the Ecoregion. An overall assessment of the streams in this region using in-stream biological, physical and chemical data will be presented. In addition, a discussion of how 

these results might better inform Clean Water Act decisions will be presented.

As a second example, the estuaries of Oregon and Washington will be examined using 

EMAP Coastal data. Washington DOE and ODEQ, with assistance from National Marine 

Fisheries Service (NMFS) and EPA Region 10, collected water column chemistry, sediment characteristics, and chemistry, benthic organisms and fish trawl data. A discussion 

of how this data relates to EPA Regional reporting will be presented.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 313

of being sampled in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington over 

a four to five year period, beginning in 2000. Over the 

same time period, approximately 50 river sites will also 

be sampled across these three States.

The second scale of evaluation is smaller and more 

localized. This smaller scale is useful for more intensive 

assessments of particular geographic areas or resource 

types. These areas will be sampled over the same four 

year period as the broad scale sample sites. For streams, 

we will be intensifying the EMAP sampling effort in 

three focus areas: the John Day and Deschutes basins of 

Oregon, the Wenatchee Basin of Washington, and the 

medium to large sized rivers of Idaho. The sampling of 

the John Day and Deschutes and Wenatchee basins began 

in 2000. The river sampling in Idaho began in 2002.

During the summers of 2003-2004, as part of the 

National State Monitoring, Assessment, and Reporting 

Program Grants, 50 wadeable streams will be monitored 

in Alaska. Water chemistry, physical habitat, benthic 

macroinvertebrate, and periphyton assemblage data 

will be collected using EMAP field protocols. Alaska 

Department of Environmental Conservation (DEC) 

has selected the Yukon River Lowlands/Yukon Tanana 

Uplands (Hydrologic Assessment Unit number 1904) as 

the study area. This unit is located in interior Alaska, north 

of the Alaska Range. It extends from Denali National 

Park and Preserve east to the Yukon Territory border. The 

project will be managed by Alaska DEC in collaboration with the University of Alaska Environmental and 

Natural Resources Institute, Alaska Cooperative Fish and 

Wildlife Research Unit and the U.S. Geological Survey, 

Alaska office.

Overview of Coastal EMAP in 

Region 10

The coastal component of Western EMAP applies 

EMAP’s monitoring and assessment tools to create an 

integrated and comprehensive coastal monitoring program of the west coast. Water column measurements, 

sediment characteristics and chemistry, benthic organisms, and data from fish trawls are combined to describe 

the current estuarine condition.

Sampling has focused on a different type of estuarine resource each year (table 2). The Washington DOE 

and the Oregon DEQ sampled small estuaries in 1999. 

Oregon sampled a second set of small estuaries in 2001. 

Sampling of larger systems (Puget Sound, Columbia 

River Estuary) was completed in 2000. An intensified 

study of Tillamook Bay, Oregon was also conducted in 

1999. 

In 2002, samples were collected from the south central coast of Alaska (called the Alaskan Biogeographic 

Province), which includes both Cook Inlet and Prince 

William Sound. The Alaska DEC managed this effort with 

support from the Cook Inlet Regional Citizens Advisory 

Council (CIRCAC). The Oregon and Washington intertidal zone, including low salt marsh, intertidal flats, and 

shallow subtidal habitats of estuaries, was also sampled 

in 2002.

In 2003, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA), EPA, and partnering west 

coast states (WA, OR, CA) combined efforts to conduct 

a survey of ecological condition of aquatic resources in 

Table 1. Freshwater monitoring projects in EPA Region 10 using EMAP design and indicators.

Regional EMAP Projects

Geographic Scope Year Number of Sites Agency Conducting Sampling

Coast Range ecoregion 1994-1995 104 Washington DOE and Oregon DEQ

Upper Chehalis basin 1997 26 Washington DOE

Upper Deschutes basin 1997 30 Oregon DEQ

Western Cascades Ecoregion 1999-2000 79 Washington DOE and Oregon DEQ

Western EMAP - Statewide scale

Idaho 2000-2004 50 Idaho DEQ

Oregon 2000-2004 60 Oregon DEQ

Washington 2000-2004 50 Washington DOE

Western EMAP - Focus Studies:

Deschutes/ John Day Basins 2000-2004 96 Oregon DEQ

Medium to large rivers of Idaho 2000-2004 45 Idaho DEQ

Wenatchee Basin 2000-2004 54 Washington DOE

National State Monitoring, Assessment, and Reporting Program Grants (EMAP design and indicators)

Yukon (Tanana) basin 2004-2005 50 Alaska DEC and University of Alaska
314 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

near-coastal waters along the U.S. western continental 

shelf. Sampling was conducted at approximately 50 

stations along the coast of each western coast state, for a 

total of approximately 150 stations. This survey provided 

the data necessary for this first-ever comprehensive assessment of ecological conditions of near-coastal waters 

(30-120 m depth) along a major portion of the U.S. western continental shelf, from the Straits of Juan de Fuca 

in Washington State to the Mexican border. The survey 

included stations in all five of NOAA’s National Marine 

Sanctuaries on the west coast, thus providing an opportunity to assess condition in sanctuaries as compared to 

non-sanctuary areas of the shelf.

Examples of Uses of EMAP 

Data—Example 1: Freshwater

The data summarized below was collected in the 

Western Cascades ecoregion of Washington and Oregon 

as part of the R-EMAP (Hayslip and others 2004). The 

project was a cooperative effort between EPA ORD, 

EPA Region 10, Washington DOE, and Oregon ODEQ. 

Washington DOE and Oregon DEQ conducted all field 

sampling for this project in 1999-2000. R-EMAP provides States and EPA Regional offices opportunities to 

use EMAP indicators to answer questions of regional 

interest.

Geographic Scope

The Western Cascades ecoregion is located in the 

Cascade Mountain Range in Oregon and Washington. 

Most of the ecoregion is between 2,000 and 7,000 ft in 

elevation and is densely forested (Pater and others 1998). 

The Western Cascades ecoregion is 10,859 square miles 

in area. It supports forest dominated by Pacific silver fir, 

western hemlock, mountain hemlock, Douglas fir, and 

noble fir (Omernik and others 1987).

The predominant land cover type in the Western 

Cascades ecoregion is forest (87 percent). The next 

most common land cover type is transitional, which is 

defined as areas with sparse vegetation (<25 percent) 

that are dynamically changing from one land cover to 

another often due to land use activities (for example, 

forestry clear cuts, construction) and natural processes 

(for example, fire, flood). There is no urban land cover 

and very limited agriculture (1 percent) in the Western 

Cascades ecoregion. Timber harvest is the major industry 

in this area and the primary land ownership is Federal. In 

Washington, the federal land ownership is primarily the 

U.S. Forest Service (41 percent) followed by the National 

Park Service. In Oregon, the U.S. Forest Service (58 

percent) is also the primary federal landowner, followed 

by the Bureau of Land Management.

Site Selection

Environmental monitoring and assessments are 

typically based on subjectively selected stream reaches. 

Peterson and others (1998, 1999) compared subjectively 

selected localized lake data with probability-based sample selection and showed the results for the same area to 

be substantially different. The primary reason for these 

differences was lack of regional sample representativeness of subjectively selected sites. Stream studies have 

been plagued by the same problem. A more objective 

approach was needed to assess overall stream quality 

on a regional scale.

EMAP uses a statistical sampling design that views 

streams as a continuous resource. This allows statements 

to be made in terms of length of the stream resource in 

various conditions (Herlihy and others 2000). Sample 

sites are randomly selected using a systematic grid based 

Table 2. Coastal monitoring projects in EPA Region 10 using EMAP design and indicators.

Year Project area Sites Agency conducting sampling

1999 Small estuaries of Oregon and Washington 100 Oregon DEQ, Washington DOE, NMFS

1999 Tillamook Bay, Oregon 30 Oregon DEQ

2000 Large estuarine systems of Puget Sound 71/ 50 Washington DOE, Oregon DEQ and NMFS

and the Columbia River

2002 South Central Alaska, including Cook Inlet 50 CIRCAC and Alaska DEC

and Prince William Sound

2002 The intertidal zones of Oregon and 100 Oregon DEQ and Washington DOE

Washington

2003 The continental shelf off Oregon and 100 Oregon DEQ and Washington DOE

Washington

2004 Small estuaries of Oregon and Washington 100 Oregon DEQ, Washington DOE and NMFS

2004 SE Alaska estuaries 50 CIRCAC, NMFS and Alaska DEC
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 315

on landscape maps overlaid with stream traces. The 

EMAP systematic grid provides uniform spatial coverage, making it possible to select stream sample locations 

in proportion to their occurrence (Overton and others 

1990). This design allows one to make statistically valid 

estimations from the sample data to the entire length of 

stream in a study area (the Western Cascades ecoregion), 

such as estimates of the number of stream miles or kilometers that are in “poor” condition.

Study sites were selected from a stream population of 

all mapped (1:100,000 scale) 2nd and 3rd order streams 

in the Western Cascades ecoregion, using EMAP‐Surface 

Water protocols (Herlihy and others 2000). There are 

approximately 19,489 total km (12,100 mi) of streams 

in the Western Cascades ecoregion. The 2nd and 3rd order 

streams represent 26.8 percent or 5224 km (3,246 mi) of 

streams in this ecoregion.

The EMAP probability design was used to select a 

random sample of the target population. In this study, 

the “target” population was 2nd and 3rd order streams. 

A total of 108 sites were evaluated for field sampling. Of 

these, 79 were selected as “target sites” (useable sample 

sites). Sites determined to be useable or “target” sites if 

they were 2nd and 3rd order streams that were accessible, 

wadeable, perennial, and free of manmade physical barriers. Each of 79 sites was sampled at least once during 

the 1999-2000 field season. Sites were sampled July 5th

through October 19th.

In addition to the 79 sites selected using the EMAP 

probability design, an additional 22 sites were hand 

selected and sampled to determine reference condition. 

The reference condition represents the biological potential or goal for the waterbody. The reference condition 

establishes the basis for making comparisons and for 

detecting impairment. The most common way to establish the reference condition is to collect field data from 

a number of sites that represent condition with minimal 

human disturbance. The data is then aggregated from 

these sites to develop a reference condition for that area, 

ecoregion, or class of waterbody.

For this project, the reference condition for each indicator metric is the average value calculated from these 

22 sites. The reference sites were selected by the state 

environmental agencies (Oregon DEQ and Washington 

DOE) from 2nd and 3rd order streams in the Western 

Cascades ecoregion to represent minimal human disturbance. The reference sites were sampled using the same 

field methods as the probability selected sites, therefore 

these data are compatible with the probability dataset.

Ecological Indicators

The objective of the Clean Water Act is to restore and 

maintain the chemical, physical and biological integrity 

of the Nation’s waters. To implement the Clean Water 

Act, States adopt water quality standards. These standards 

are designed to protect public health or welfare, enhance 

the quality of water, and protect biological integrity.

In general terms, a water quality standard defines the 

goals of a waterbody by designating the use or uses to 

be made of the water (such as aquatic life, coldwater 

biota, or salmonid spawning), setting criteria necessary 

to protect those uses, and preventing degradation of 

water quality. Therefore, in order to assess the nation’s 

waters, it is important to measure water quality (stream 

water parameters), physical habitat (watershed, riparian 

and in-stream measurements), and biological (vertebrate 

and invertebrates communities) condition. EMAP uses 

ecological indicators to quantify these conditions. EMAP 

field methods were primarily used and additional detailed 

information is available in Lazorchak and others 1998.

Summary

The often complex results of environmental data analyses must be communicated in a straightforward manner 

to water resource managers and the public. In order to 

determine the extent of the 2nd and 3rd order streams in 

the Western Cascades ecoregion that are in good, fair, 

and poor condition, we measured chemical, physical, and 

biological indicators in a statistical probability sample 

of stream reaches (probability sites).

Stream water chemistry

For stream water chemistry indicators, we compared 

these results to water quality criteria for Oregon and 

Washington or literature values where no criteria existed (fig. 1). Over 90 percent of the 2nd and 3rd order 

stream length in the Western Cascades ecoregion was in 

“good” condition for pH, phosphorus and nitrite-nitrate. 

Figure 1. Quality of selected water chemistry indicators.
316 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Streams were determined to be in “good” condition for 

pH between 6.5-8.8, below 0.1 mg/L for phosphorus 

and below 0.3 mg/L for nitrate-nitrite. For temperature, 

61 percent of the 2nd and 3rd order stream length in the 

Western Cascades ecoregion was in “good” condition. 

We defined “good” as below 12°C. Thirty-seven percent 

of the stream length was in “fair” condition (between 

12°C and 16.0°C). Only 2 percent of the stream length 

was in “poor” condition (warmer than 16°C). However, 

the use of a single measurement is unlikely to catch peak 

stream temperatures.

Physical habitat and biological indicators

For physical habitat and biological assemblages, we 

compare the results of the ecoregion-wide assessment 

(using probability sites) to that of the reference condition (using reference sites) as there are no applicable 

numeric water quality criteria. The range of scores at 

reference sites for each habitat and biological indicator 

represents a distribution that we used to define reference 

condition. Although the reference sites are minimally 

disturbed by human influence, however some level of 

human disturbance has occurred at least at some of these 

sites. Therefore, we have set our scoring criteria conservatively. The 25th percentile of this reference distribution 

is the criteria that we used to distinguish probability 

sites in “good” condition from those in “fair” condition 

(Barbour and others 1999). The 5th percentile value of 

reference separates sites in fair condition from those in 

“poor” condition (figs. 2 and 3). These criteria provide 

a margin of safety, as they would designate 5 percent of 

the reference sites in “poor” condition.

Generally, Large Woody Debris (LWD) was more 

prevalent in the reference sites in all categories, including the large class. For the amount of LWD in the large 

and very large size classes, 23 percent of the of the 2nd

and 3rd order stream length in the Western Cascades 

ecoregion was in “poor” condition as compared to the 

reference sites. An additional, 49 percent of the stream 

length was in “fair” condition for large and very large 

LWD (fig. 2).

The amount of mid-channel shade was fairly high 

for both the probability and reference sites. However, 

34 percent of the of the 2nd and 3rd order stream length 

in the Western Cascades ecoregion was in “poor” condition for percent mid-channel canopy cover as compared 

to the reference sites. An additional 30 percent of the 

stream length was in “fair” condition for mid-channel 

shade (fig. 2).

Mixed cover was the most common type of riparian canopy cover for both reference and probability 

sites. For the probability sites, the next most common 

riparian cover was deciduous. For the reference sites, 

the next most common riparian cover was coniferous. 

Thirty-seven percent of the of the 2nd and 3rd order stream 

length in the Western Cascades ecoregion was in “poor” 

condition as compared to the reference sites for percent 

coniferous plus mixed canopy cover types (fig. 2).

Cobble-sized (<64 to 250 mm) substrate was the 

most common surface substrate for both the probability 

and reference sites. The percent of fines-sized ( .06mm) 

substrate was relatively abundant in the Ecoregion. 

Compared to the reference condition, 27 percent of the 

of the 2nd and 3rd order stream length in the Western 

Cascades ecoregion was in “poor” condition for percent 

fine-sized substrate. An additional, 16 percent of the 

stream length was in “fair” condition for percent sands 

or fines (fig. 2).

Salmonids were common in both with ecoregion-wide 

sites having slightly higher salmonid species richness 

than reference sites. Coldwater guild species were the 

dominant temperature guild in both site types. Reference 

sites differed from the probability sites in that they had 

higher amphibian species richness. For total vertebrate 

richness, 8 percent of the 2nd and 3rd order stream length in 

the Western Cascades ecoregion was in “poor” condition 

as compared to reference sites (fig. 3). The reference sites 

also had higher relative abundance of sensitive aquatic 

vertebrate guild species. Twenty-seven percent of the 

2nd and 3rd order stream length was in “poor” condition 

as compared to the reference sites for sensitive aquatic 

vertebrate species relative abundance. Overall, vertebrate 

species diversity based on the Shannon-Weiner diversity 

was “poor” in 16 percent of the 2nd and 3rd order stream 

length in the Western Cascades ecoregion as compared 

to the reference sites (fig. 3).

For benthic macroinvertebrates (fig. 3), three indicators were considered (1) the percent of the individuals 

Figure 2. Quality of selected physical habitat indicators. in the sample that were from the orders Ephmeroptera, 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 317

Plecoptera, Trichoptera (EPT); (2) the percent Plecoptera 

individuals; and (3) the percent intolerant macroinvertebrates. For all three indicators, metrics values were 

lower for the probability sites as compared the reference 

sites. For the percent of individuals in the sample that 

were EPT (percent EPT), 17 percent of the 2nd and 3rd

order stream length in the Western Cascades ecoregion 

were in “poor” condition as compared to the reference 

sites. Fourteen percent of the of the 2nd and 3rd order 

stream length in the Western Cascades ecoregion was in 

“poor” condition as compared to the reference sites for 

the percent of Plecoptera individuals.

For the percent of individuals in the sample that are 

intolerant individuals, 22 percent of the of the 2nd and 3rd

order stream length in the Western Cascades ecoregion 

was in “poor” condition as compared to the reference 

sites. An additional 21 percent of the stream length was 

in “fair” condition for percent sensitive (fig. 3).

This project was designed to evaluate the overall 

condition of 2nd and 3rd order streams in the Western 

Cascades ecoregion. In this assessment we used direct 

measurements of the biota themselves as indicators of 

ecological condition. The organisms that live in a stream 

integrate many of the physical and chemical stressors and 

factors that are acting in, and on, the stream ecosystem. 

Information on the stream biota is supplemented by indicators of stress, which are measurements of other stream 

characteristics or factors that might influence or affect 

stream condition, especially stream water chemistry and 

physical habitat.

In conclusion, very few (3-8 percent) 

of the of the 2nd and 3rd order stream 

kilometers in the Western Cascades 

ecoregion were in “poor” condition using stream water indicators. However, 

physical habitat indicators showed a 

greater extent of the 2nd and 3rd order 

stream length in the Western Cascades 

ecoregion in “poor” condition (22-38 

percent). The biological indicators (fish, 

amphibians, and macroinvertebrates) 

are likely responding to physical habitat 

conditions, as 8-27 percent of the 2nd

and 3rd order stream kilometers in the 

Western Cascades ecoregion were in 

“poor” condition based on these biological indicators.

Examples of Uses 

of EMAP Data—Example 2: 

Coastal

The data described below were collected in the estuaries of Washington and Oregon as part of the coastal 

component of Western EMAP in 1999 and 2000. This 

project applied EMAP’s monitoring and assessment 

tools to create an integrated and comprehensive coastal 

monitoring program along the west coast. The project 

is a cooperative effort between EPA ORD, EPA Region 

10, NMFS, Washington DOE, and Oregon ODEQ. 

Washington DOE and Oregon DEQ conducted all field 

sampling in Region 10, with assistance from NMFS, for 

this project in 1999-2000.

In Coastal EMAP, water column measurements are 

combined with information about sediment characteristics and chemistry, benthic organisms, and data from fish 

to describe estuarine conditions. The first year’s effort 

(1999) constituted an assessment of the condition of 

the small estuarine systems (< 250 km2) in Oregon and 

Washington, using 100 randomly selected sites. Also in 

1999, 30 sites were selected in Tillamook Bay, Oregon, 

to demonstrate the EMAP design at a smaller scale.

In 2000, EMAP samples were collected from 50 

locations in the lower Columbia River estuary and 71 

locations in the Puget Sound. While a great deal of data 

was collected during this project, only a small portion 

of the information will be described below.

An important part of making policy and management 

decisions is understanding the relative magnitude and 

extent of current stressor to aquatic systems. Estuaries 

are threatened because of the numerous ways that humans 

Figure 3. Quality of selected biological indicators.
318 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

use them and use the land areas, or watersheds, that drain 

into them. Under the Clean Water Act, States are required 

to report on the condition of the states’ waters, including 

estuaries. There are many stressors that influence the 

ecological condition of estuarine waters in Region 10.

For example, an excess of nutrients, such as nitrogen 

and phosphorus, from runoff can lead to euthrophication, 

a condition in which blooms of algae rob oxygen from 

other organisms. Dissolved oxygen (DO) is a fundamental requirement for estuarine biota. Another common 

stressor to estuarine systems comes from potentially 

toxic substances that reach estuaries from industrial and 

municipal sources and storm water runoff. These toxic 

substances bind to particles in the water and settle to the 

bottom, contaminating sediments.

Non-indigenous species are another estuarine stressor, 

but are rarely addressed in state or regional monitoring 

studies. The term “non-indigenous species” (NIS) can 

refer to any plant, animal, or other viable biological 

material that enter an ecosystem beyond its historic 

range. They are also called “invasive species,” “nonnative species,” “aquatic nuisance species,” “introduced 

species,” “exotic organisms,” and other terms as well. 

Invasive species can successfully invade any terrestrial 

or aquatic ecosystem, and may enter through a wide variety of introduction mechanisms. Human activities, both 

intentional and non-intentional, are the chief cause of 

invasive species introductions. Non-indigenous aquatic 

species impact biological and economic resources and 

can also impact human health. NIS disturb native species 

through predation or displacement, clog intake pipes for 

water supplies, and pose serious human health risks. Not 

all non-native species become pests, or even survive, in 

new locations. But when they do, they often displace a 

whole suite of native species to become dominant.

EMAP coastal data will be used to develop an indicator for NIS for possible inclusion in future reporting and 

strategic planning. The extent of NIS will be compared 

to other, more traditional stressors, dissolved oxygen 

and sediment toxicity. The data that follows is from the 

1999-2000 EMAP study of the estuaries of Oregon and 

Washington.

The three stressors that are compared are dissolved 

oxygen, sediment toxicity, and NIS. For dissolved oxygen, any location with less than 2.0 ppm DO fails, or is 

considered in “poor” condition. For sediment toxicity, 

condition is evaluated using a combination of several 

different approaches including sediment contaminant 

concentrations, organic carbon concentration, and amphipod survival in toxicity tests. If the site fails any one 

of the criteria, it is considered to be in “poor” condition 

for sediment toxicity. For non-indigenous species, a site 

with NIS comprising 25 percent or more of the individuals or of the species fails or is or is considered in “poor” 

condition, for NIS.

In the estuaries of Oregon and Washington, only 0.5 

percent of the estuarine sites failed the dissolved oxygen 

cut-point and 15 percent of the sites failed the sediment 

toxicity cut-points. However, 48 percent of the sites in 

the estuaries of Oregon and Washington failed the NIS 

cut-point. Yet, NIS is not typically included in reports 

showing the condition of estuarine waters. We will be 

using this data to demonstrate the importance of including 

NIS in our regional and state reporting on the condition 

of the estuaries of Region 10.

References

Barbour, M.T., J. Gerritsen, B.D. Snyder, and J.B. Stribling. 

1999. Rapid Bioassessment Protocols for Use in Streams and 

Wadeable Rivers: Periphyton, Benthic Macroinvertebrates 

and Fish, Second Edition. EPA 841-B-99-002. U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency; Office of Water; 

Washington, D.C.

Hayslip, G.A., L.G. Herger, and P. T. Leinenbach. 2004. 

Ecological Condition of Western Cascades Ecoregion 

Streams. EPA 910-R-04-005. U.S. Environmental Protection 

Agency, Region 10, Seattle, Washington.

Herlihy, A.T., D.P. Larsen, S.G. Paulsen, N.S. Urquhart, and 

B.J. Rosenbaum. 2000. Designing a spatially balanced 

randomized site selection process for regional stream 

surveys: the EMAP mid-Atlantic pilot study. Environmental 

Monitoring and Assessment 63:95‐113.

Lazorchak, J.M., D.J. Klemm and D.V. Peck (editors). 1998. 

Environmental Monitoring and Assessment ProgramSurface Waters: Field Operations and Methods for 

Measuring the ecological Condition of Wadeable Streams. 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. 

EPA/620/R-94/004F.

Overton, W.S., D. White, and D.L. Stevens, Jr.1990. 

Design Report for EMAP, Environmental Monitoring 

and Assessment Program. EPA 600/3‐91/053. U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, Corvallis, OR.

Pater, D.E., S.A. Bryce, T.D. Thorson, J. Kagan, C. Chappell, 

J.M. Omernik, S.H. Azevedo, and A. J. Woods. 1998. 

Ecoregions of Western Washington and Oregon (2 sided 

color poster with map, descriptive text, summary tables, 

and photographs). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA. 

Scale 1:1,350,000.

Peterson, S.A., D.P. Larsen, S.G. Paulsen, and N.S. Urquhart. 

1998. Regional lake trophic patterns in the northeastern United States: three approaches. Environmental 

Management 22:789-801.

Peterson, S.A., N.S. Urquhart, and E.B. Welch. Sample 

representativeness: a must for reliable regional lake condition estimates. Environmental Science and Technology. 

33:1559-1565.

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2004. Draft National 

Coastal Condition Report II. Office of Research and 

Development and Office of Water. Washington, D.C. 

EPA-620/R03-002.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 319

Introduction

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, through 

the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program 

(EMAP), initiated in 1999 a six-year research effort 

as part of the National Coastal Assessment (NCA) to 

develop monitoring protocols for the coastal resources 

of the western United States. The goal of the NCA is to 

create an integrated, comprehensive monitoring program 

among the coastal states to assess ecological condition 

of estuaries and near-coastal waters.

The specific objectives of the NCA-West program 

are: to assess the condition of estuarine resources based 

on a range of indicators of environmental quality using 

an integrated survey design; to establish a baseline for 

evaluating how the conditions of the estuarine resources 

of the Western states change with time; to develop and 

validate improved methods for use in future coastal 

monitoring and assessment efforts in the Western states; 

and to transfer the technical approaches and methods for 

designing, conducting and analyzing data from probability based environmental assessments to states and tribal 

environmental organizations.

NCA-West involves the cooperation of numerous organizations. The project is principally funded by the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research 

and Development. The following organizations provided 

a wide range of field sampling, analytical and interpretive 

support in their respective states through individual cooperative agreements with EPA: Washington Department 

of Ecology, Oregon Department of Environmental 

Quality, Southern California Water Resources Research 

From Marshes to the Continental Shelf: Results of the 

Western Component of the US EPA National Coastal 

Assessment

W. G. Nelson, H. Lee II, J. O. Lamberson, Pacific Coastal Ecology Branch, Western Ecology 

Division, National Health and Environmental Effects Laboratory, U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency, Newport OR

Abstract—The National Coastal Assessment of the US EPA began field work in the 

Western US in 1999-2000. Probabilistic sampling for biotic and abiotic condition indicators was conducted at 381 stations within estuaries and coastal embayments of 

Washington, Oregon and California. In 2002, intertidal and low salt marsh habitats were 

sampled at an additional 190 stations. As part of the intertidal effort, pilot evaluations 

of landscape indicators of coastal wetland condition were carried out in California. 

Pilot studies were also conducted in south central Alaska and in the Hawaiian Islands. 

In 2003, sampling for many of the same condition indicators was conducted on the 

continental shelf of the west coast from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to the Mexican border. By 2003, NCA-West had completed the field work for assessing the condition of 

soft sediment, estuarine habitats including low salt marsh, intertidal flats, and subtidal 

bottom, as well as continental shelf habitats down to a depth of 120 m, for the entire 

west coast. During summer 2004, NCA-West re-sampled estuarine systems of WA, OR, 

CA, AK, HI and conducted pilot sampling in the territory of Guam. NCA-West data will 

ultimately provide area estimates of western coastal, soft-sediment benthic habitat (exclusive of beaches) with degraded benthic conditions due to the impacts of sediment 

contaminants and other stressors. Results from the 1999-2000 survey for condition 

indicators indicate that only a small percentage of area of Western estuaries has levels 

of sediment contamination of either metals or organic compounds potentially toxic to 

benthic organisms. Water quality indicators for Western estuaries were generally good, 

although PO4 was high at many sites, perhaps due to natural factors. Nonindigenous 

species may be a more spatially widespread form of disturbance to benthic infaunal 

communities than sediment chemical contaminants, although the ecological consequences of these invasions are not yet known.
320 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Project (SCCWRP). The Northwest Fisheries Science 

Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National 

Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration provided 

field support and analysis of fish pathologies through 

an interagency cooperative agreement with EPA. 

Moss Landing Marine Laboratories provided the field 

crews for collection of samples in California under 

contract to SCCWRP. The U.S. Geological Survey, 

Columbia Environmental Research Center, through 

the Biomonitoring Environmental Status and Trends 

(BEST) Program, provided analyses for exposure of 

fish to planar halogenated hydrocarbons. Through 

their Marine Ecotoxicology Research Station, BEST 

also provided results from two sea urchin bioassays on 

sediment porewater toxicity.

NCA-West has focused on different coastal resource 

components each year. The first phase involved a twoyear (1999-2000) comprehensive assessment of soft 

sediment habitats of all estuaries of Washington, Oregon, 

and California (Nelson and others 2004). In 2001, NCAWest conducted field work only in Oregon estuaries, 

while the NOAA Status and Trends Program conducted 

additional sampling in San Francisco Bay. While not 

formally a part of the original NCA-West assessment 

design, the NOAA 2001 data will also be incorporated 

into the NCA-West assessment database.

In 2002, NCA-West conducted a pilot assessment of 

condition of intertidal estuarine wetlands of Washington, 

Oregon, and California which included specialized study 

efforts focused on development of marsh condition indicators for San Francisco Bay and Southern California. 

Pilot assessments of estuarine and coastal indicators were 

also successfully conducted in south central Alaska and 

the state of Hawaii with the collaboration of the Alaska 

Dept. of Environmental Conservation, the Cook Inlet 

Regional Citizens Action Committee, the University of 

Alaska, and the University of Hawaii.

In 2003, NCA-West moved to an assessment of the 

condition of soft sediment habitat on the continental 

shelf of Washington, Oregon, and California between 

a depth of 30 and 120 m. In addition to the group of 

state partners from Washington, Oregon, California, and 

Alaska, the shelf assessment efforts included cooperation with NOAA National Marine Sanctuary (NMS) 

programs for sampling within the Olympic, Cordell 

Banks, Gulf of Farallones, Monterey Bay, and Channel 

Islands NMS.

During the summer of 2004, NCA-West re-sampled 

the estuarine and near-coastal systems of WA, OR, CA, 

AK, HI and conducted pilot sampling in the territory of 

Guam. Additional participants in the sampling program 

for 2004 include the Hawaii Department of Health and 

the Guam Environmental Protection Agency.

NCA-West 1999-2000 

Estuarine Assessment Sample 

Design

NCA utilizes a probability based sampling design 

to develop estimates of status and trends of condition of environmental resources. To demonstrate the 

general design approach, the sampling design for the 

1999-2000 study will be described in some detail. The 

sampling frame for the NCA-West was developed from 

USGS 1:100,000-scale digital line graphs and stored as 

a GIS data layer in the ARC/INFO program. A series 

of programs and scripts (Bourgeois and others 1998) 

was written to create a random sampling generator 

(RSG) that runs in ArcView. Site selection consisted 

of using the RSG to first overlay a user-defined sampling grid of hexagons over the spatial resource which 

consisted of all estuaries of the west coast. The area of 

the hexagons was controlled by adjusting the distance 

to hexagon centers, and by defining how many sample 

stations were to be generated for each sampling region. 

After the sampling grid was overlaid on the estuarine 

resource, the program randomly selected hexagons and 

randomly located a sampling point within the hexagon. 

Only one sampling site was selected from any hexagon 

selected. The program determined whether a sampling 

point fell in water or on land, and sites that fell on land 

were not included. The RSG was run iteratively until 

a hexagon size was determined which generated the 

desired number of sampling sites within the resource 

(Bourgeois and others 1998).

Specific details of the 1999-2000 West Coast sampling 

design are provided in Nelson and others (2004). In brief, 

the sampling effort in 1999 consisted of 210 sample 

stations located within the smaller estuarine systems of 

Washington, Oregon, and California, while 171 locations in Puget Sound, San Francisco Bay and the main 

channel of the Columbia River up to Bonneville Dam 

were sampled in 2000 (fig. 1). In 1999, 50 stations were 

sampled within each state. There were also two regionally focused sampling efforts of 30 stations each for 

Tillamook Bay, Oregon and for a group of small, northern 

California estuaries. Approximately equal numbers of 

stations within the 150 stations of the basic sample effort 

were partitioned among estuaries of <5, 5-25 and >25 

km2 to ensure some level of sampling across the entire 

range of estuarine sizes.

The 2000 sampling designs for Puget Sound and 

San Francisco Bay were produced to allow collaboration with surveys being conducted by the NOAA 

National Status and Trends Program. For Puget Sound, 

the NCA-West sample grid was extended to include 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 321

Canadian waters at the north end of Puget Sound, and 

then was overlaid on the existing probability based, 

randomized NOAA monitoring sites. If a NOAA site 

fell within a grid cell, the site was designated as the 

NCA-West sampling point. If not, a random site was 

selected based on the NCA-West protocols. There were 

41 stations selected based on the NOAA sampling stations, in addition to 30 new EMAP stations, of which 

10 were associated with the San Juan Islands. Similarly, 

in San Francisco Bay, NOAA Status and Trends used 

a probability based design to characterize condition of 

the sub-estuaries within San Francisco Bay. To insure 

complete coverage of the bay for the NCA-West study, 

the NOAA design was augmented with a sampling design which generated 31 sites in the open bay and 19 

sites in smaller surrounding systems.

The 2000 sampling design for the Columbia River 

partitioned the main channel up to Bonneville Dam 

into 20 stations within the lower, saline portion and 

30 stations within the upper, freshwater portion. Side 

channels of the Columbia River were sampled in 1999 

as part of the small system survey. No alternate sites 

were selected as part of the 1999-2000 sampling design, 

and thus any sites which could not be sampled were 

not replaced.

NCA-West Assessment 

Indicators

The environmental condition indicators used in this 

study (table 1) included measures of: 1) general habitat 

condition (depth, salinity, temperature, pH, total suspended solids, sediment characteristics); 2) water quality 

indicators (chlorophyll a, nutrients); 3) pollutant exposure 

indicators (dissolved oxygen concentration, sediment 

contaminants, fish tissue contaminants, sediment toxicity); and 4) benthic condition indicators (diversity and 

abundance of benthic infaunal and demersal species, fish 

pathological anomalies).

2002 NCA-West Intertidal 

Wetlands Sampling Design

Because the principal focus of the 1999-2000 NCAWest estuarine assessment was on subtidal soft sediment 

habitat, the 2002 assessment was directed towards 

intertidal wetlands (habitat between mean lower low 

water and mean high water) to develop a more complete 

picture of estuarine condition. Thirty sites were randomly 

Figure 1. Location of NCA-West survey sites in 1999 -2000.

Table 1. Core environmental indicators for the NCA-West 

assessment of estuarine and near-coastal condition.

Habitat Indicators

Salinity

Water depth

pH

Water temperature

Total suspended solids

Chlorophyll a concentration

Nutrient concentrations (nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, & 

phosphate)

Secchi depth

Percent silt-clay of sediments

Percent Total Organic Carbon (TOC) in sediments

Benthic Condition Indicators

Infaunal species composition

Infaunal abundance

Infaunal species richness and diversity

Demersal fish species composition

Demersal fish abundance

Demersal fish species richness and diversity

Percent Light Transmission

External pathological anomalies in fish

Nonindigenous species

Exposure Indicators

Dissolved oxygen concentration

Sediment contaminants Metals, PAHs, PCBs,

Pesticides, Hydrocarbons (AK only)

Fish tissue contaminants

Sediment toxicity (Ampelisca abdita, Eohaustorius estuarius, 

Hyallela azteca acute toxicity tests)
322 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

allocated along the California coastline, and 30 sites were 

randomly allocated within each of the two intensification 

regions. All indicators in table 2 were measured at the 90 

sites, allowing for a statewide assessment of intertidal 

wetland condition as well as independent assessments of 

Southern California (Point Conception to the Mexican 

border) and San Francisco Bay. The list of condition 

indicators was modified to reflect the intertidal habitat 

focus (table 2) and included a variety of plant community 

indicators.

The intensification studies in southern California and 

the San Francisco Bay area provided the opportunity to 

examine additional indicators (table 3). The use of additional indicators allows NCA to broaden its focus beyond 

an emphasis on sediment contamination to include issues 

specific to the intertidal wetland habitats, such as habitat 

fragmentation, threatened and endangered native species, the spread of nonindigenous species, modification 

of tidal flushing, and the impacts of land use alteration 

on wetlands.

In the intensification areas, a double randomization 

design based on the sample frame was employed. Thirty 

systems were randomly sampled from the list of all wetland systems within a region, with a random sampling 

Table 3. List of environmental condition indicators for the 2002 intertidal wetlands intensification studies 

in San Francisco Bay and Southern California.

Plant community composition and percent Habitat connectivity of tidal marsh patches

cover for drainage system

Wrack line trash composition for drainage Percent attenuation of spring tide range

system

Threatened/endangered species for habitat Intertidal channel density for habitat patch

patch

Nonindigenous species plants for habitat patch Total acreage for habitat patch

Management objectives for habitat patch Total perimeter for habitat patch

Number of recreational facilities and annual Shoreline development index for habitat patch

visitors for habitat patch

Presence of man made water control structures Shape index for habitat patch

and levees

Total annual POTW, industrial and power plant Adjacent land cover for habitat patch

discharge to wetland watershed

Human population density for watershed Size class distribution for all habitat patches

Human population age structure for watershed

Table 2. List of environmental condition indicators for the 2002 NCA-West intertidal wetlands assessment study.

Tidal water temperature, depth, salinity Infaunal abundance

Sediment pore water salinity Infaunal species richness and diversity

Sediment bulk density Emergent macrophyte species richness

Sediment percent organic carbon Emergent macrophyte species diversity

Sediment grain size Emergent macrophyte species maximum stem or shoot length

Sediment inorganic contaminants Percent of macrophyte species as nonindigenous species

Sediment percent phosphorus Submerged aquatic vegetation or macroalgalpercent cover

Infaunal species composition Submerged aquatic vegetation maximum shoot length

point then chosen from the intertidal area of each of the 

30 wetland units selected. The advantage of this approach 

is that it allows condition estimates based on percentage 

of systems, while at the same time also allowing for the 

areal extent estimates of condition that have been the 

basis for all other NCA-West activities.

2002 NCA-West Surveys in 

Alaska and Hawaii

A survey of the ecological condition of Alaska’s 

near-coastal resources in the south-central region of the 

state (Alaskan Province) was completed in 2002. The 

south-central region of the state was selected for the first 

Alaskan survey because of the importance of the major 

estuarine resources in the region (Prince William Sound 

and Cook Inlet) to the local and state economy, as well as 

to aquatic living resources. The survey design included 

50 core sites and 25 alternate sites, of which 55 stations 

were successfully sampled. The indicators collected 

during the survey are the same as those collected by the 

western states in 1999-2000, with the additional inclusion 

of analysis of petroleum hydrocarbons in sediments.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 323

2003 NCA-West Continental 

Shelf Assessment Survey

NCA-West conducted a probability based assessment 

of condition of soft sediment benthic resources of the 

continental shelf of the west coast in summer of 2003. 

NOAA was a major partner in the study effort, contributing ship time on the R.V. McArthur II to the assessment 

effort. Fifty stations per state were sampled in the depth 

range between 30 and 120 m for the majority of the 

indicators listed in table 1, although sediment toxicity 

test and fish community indicators were omitted for a 

combination of cost and logistical issues. In order to 

allow development of an assessment of condition in the 

west coast NMS, 30 stations were selected within the 

Olympic NMS, and 30 stations were randomly selected 

within the Cordell Banks, Gulf of Farallones, Monterey 

Bay, and Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuaries. 

The remaining 90 stations were distributed in the area 

on the shelf of Washington, Oregon, and California 

north of Pt. Conception that was not included in a 

NMS. The shelf region between Pt. Conception and 

the Mexican border was sampled for most of the same 

condition indicators used by NCA-West during summer 

2003 as part of the Bight ‘03 study by a consortium 

of agencies led by SCCWRP. The Bight ‘03 data will 

be integrated with the NCA-West data to provide the 

overall assessment of condition of the continental shelf 

of the West Coast.

2004 NCA-West Surveys

During 2004, NCA-West conducted a reassessment of 

estuarine resource condition in Washington, Oregon and 

California, using essentially the same sample frame that 

was used for the 1999-2000 sample effort. One change 

was the restriction of the sampling the Columbia River to 

the marine portions of the river system. Alaska conducted 

a second assessment in southeastern Alaska, a different 

biogeographic region of the state. Hawaii conducted its 

second state wide assessment of condition, but revised the 

sample frame to include not only estuaries and restricted 

coastal bays, but all state marine waters within the 60 

foot depth contour. The territory of Guam conducted 

its first probability based assessment of marine waters, 

also using the 60 foot depth contour as the basis for the 

sample frame.

Selected 1999-2000 

Assessment Results

The control corrected mean survivorship of the amphipods in toxicity tests of sediments collected (fig. 2) 

ranged from 0 percent to 109.9 percent, across the 306 

stations that were included in the analysis. Approximately 

17 percent of the area of West Coast estuaries had survivorship < 80 percent, indicating sediments that were 

toxic to amphipods due to some factor.

Figure 2. Percent area (and 95 percent 

C.I.) of West Coast estuaries vs. 

percent control corrected survivorship 

of the amphipod crustaceans 

(Ampelisca abdita, Hyalella azteca

in the freshwater Columbia River).
324 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Excluding nickel which has a low reliability for West 

Coast conditions, sediment concentrations exceeded 

their respective Effects Range Median (ERM) values at 

24 stations, representing 3percent of the estuarine area 

(fig. 3). Twenty of these sites were in California, four 

in Washington, and none in Oregon. In California, all 

of the concentrations that exceeded the ERMs north of 

San Luis Obispo Bay were due to chromium, mercury, or 

copper. In Southern California, the exceedances were due 

to DDT, with the exception of the Los Angeles Harbor, 

which had high concentrations of several metals and 

PAHs. In Washington, three of the sediment concentrations that exceeded the ERMs occurred in harbors and 

bays within the Puget Sound system; one was in the 

Columbia River. All of these exceedances were due to 

either PAHs or PCBs.

Of the 18 stations with poor amphipod survivorship, 

there were five stations, all in California, which also 

had exceedances of at least one ERM. Therefore factors 

besides sediment toxicity may be responsible for the low 

survivorship observed at the remaining 13 sites.

The benthic infaunal community data from 2000 for 

the large estuaries are not yet finalized. However, the 

1999 data indicate that the soft-bottom benthos in the 

smaller West Coast estuaries are diverse, with a total of 

852 non-colonial taxa and an average of 22.3 taxa per 

grab (N=187). The two most abundant species were the 

native amphipods Americorophium spinicorne and A. 

Figure 3. Percent area (and 95

percent C.I.) of West Coast 

estuaries vs. exceedances 

of the ERM concentrations 

for sediment contaminants.

salmonis, which reached densities as great as 397,000 

m2 in Northern California river mouth estuaries. Overall, 

nonindigenous species were moderately abundant, constituting almost 13 percent of both the native abundance 

and the native species (53 nonindigenous compared to 

421 native species). The remaining taxa were either 

cryptogenic (104 species) or indeterminate (274 taxa),

where cryptogenic species are species of uncertain 

origin (Carlton, 1996) and indeterminate taxa are those 

not identified to a sufficiently low level to classify as 

native or nonindigenous (Lee and others 2003). A more 

telling indicator of the extent of invasion in these small 

West Coast estuaries is that 124 of the 187 grabs (66 

percent) contained at least one nonindigenous species, 

representing 74.5 percent of the area of the small estuaries (fig. 4).

Summary

NCA-West has primarily utilized indicators of biotic 

condition, physical and chemical characteristics, and exposure to pollutants, but is evolving to include indicators 

of landscape condition and hydrology. At the conclusion 

of the program in 2005, NCA-West will provide an 

integrated assessment of coastal condition of the west 

coast states in soft sediment habitat from the intertidal 

low marsh to 120 m depth. In addition, NCA-West has 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 325

Figure 4. Percentage of benthic 

infaunal samples (N=187) with either 

abundance or species richness of 

nonindigenous (NIS) species that 

exceed various levels relative 

to native species abundance or 

species richness. The percentage 

of samples with NIS present is also 

shown.

developed methods for sampling the highly varied coral, 

coral rubble and soft sediment habitats of the tropical 

Pacific islands. In Alaska, NCA-West has assessed two 

of five biogeographic provinces, but still faces major 

challenges in completing a complete assessment in a 

state with more shoreline than that of the other 49 states 

combined.

Analysis of results from the 1999-2000 assessment 

effort shows an elevated mortality in amphipod sediment 

toxicity tests at 18 stations representing 17 percent of 

estuarine area. Two thirds of these sites with sediment 

toxicity had no measured chemical contaminants at 

concentrations above the ERM. In contrast, data from 

1999 showed that nonindigenous species were present at 

a majority of sites and comprised 13 percent compared 

to the native abundance. The results of the NCA-West 

assessment suggest that at least within western small 

estuaries, nonindigenous species may be a far more 

widespread form of disturbance to benthic communities 

than sediment chemical contaminants.

References

Bourgeois, P.E., V.J. Sclafani, J.K. Summers, S. C. Robb, and 

B.A.Vairin. 1998. Think before you sample. GEOWorld.

Vol. 11: No 12.

Carlton, J. T. 1996. Biological invasions and cryptogenic 

species. Ecology 77:1653-1654.

Lee II, H., Thompson, B. and Lowe, S. 2003. Estuarine and 

scalar patterns of invasion in the soft-bottom benthic communities of the San Francisco Estuary. Biological Invasions 

5:85-102.

Nelson, W. G., Lee II, H., Lamberson, J. O., Engle, V., 

Harwell, L., Smith, L. M. 2004. Condition of Estuaries of 

Western United States for 1999: A Statistical Summary. 

Office of Research and Development, National Health 

and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Report 

in Review.
326 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The Mississippi River Deltaic and Chenier Plains of 

coastal Louisiana consist of diverse geomorphological 

basins with distinct vegetation zones and patterns of 

landscape development. Within each of these geomorphological basins are ecological habitats that can be 

distinguished by the adaptation of plants to soil fertility, 

relative water levels, and salinity (Buresh and others 

1980, DeLaune and others 1989, Gosselink and others 

1998). Marshes in coastal regions that differ in geomorphology and nutrient (fresh water and sediments) loading 

have evolved different plant strategies in response to resource availability and abiotic stressors (Hopkinson and 

Schubauer 1984, White and Howes 1994), resulting in 

different patterns of marsh stability. Although this coastal 

landscape is one of the most productive and biologically 

diverse in the contiguous United States, it is also suffering 

from one of the greatest environmental problems in North 

America—catastrophic wetland loss. Louisiana has the 

An Integrated Monitoring Approach Using Multiple 

Reference Sites to Assess Sustainable Restoration in 

Coastal Louisiana

Gregory D. Steyer, senior Wetland Ecologist, U.S. Geological Survey, National Wetlands 

Research Center, Coastal Restoration Field Station, Baton Rouge, LA

Robert R. Twilley, Director, Wetland Biogeochemistry Institute, Louisiana State University, 

Baton Rouge, LA 

Richard C. Raynie, Coastal Resources Scientist Manager, Louisiana Department of Natural 

Resources, Coastal Restoration Division, Baton Rouge, LA

Abstract—Achieving sustainable resource management in coastal Louisiana requires 

establishing reference conditions that incorporate the goals and objectives of restoration efforts. Since the reference condition is usually considered sustainable, it can be a 

gauge to assess the present condition of a (degraded) system or to evaluate progress 

of management actions toward some target system state (the reference or desired 

conditions).

In 2003, the Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act (CWPPRA) Task 

Force and the Louisiana State Wetlands Authority adopted the “Coastwide Reference 

Monitoring System – Wetlands” (CRMS–Wetlands) for Louisiana. This system will provide 

data from multiple reference sites to explore the properties of a sustained reference 

condition. CRMS–Wetlands provides links between project-specific and system-wide 

objectives, criteria for selecting reference sites or conditions, a more robust statistical 

design, and critical monitoring variables. In addition, a system-wide assessment and 

monitoring plan (SWAMP) is being developed that incorporates and evaluates existing 

monitoring efforts (to the extent possible) within a system-wide experimental design. The 

SWAMP will integrate monitoring of biological, chemical, physical, and climatological 

variables in four modules: wetlands (CRMS–Wetlands), barrier islands, inshore waters 

and rivers, and nearshore coastal waters. Data and information collected under SWAMP 

will contribute to developing a systems-synthesis model for coastal Louisiana.

Regional restoration project leaders in coastal Louisiana acknowledge the mutual dependence of monitoring and modeling the coastal landscape. For example, experiments 

or measurements should not be conducted independently of modeling and vice versa. 

Assessment should be directed at reducing scientific uncertainty to improve confidence 

in modeling and monitoring tools and ultimately to assist management actions. An 

adaptive environmental assessment and management process prescribes modeling, 

monitoring, and research activities to be conducted from initial stages of restoration 

planning to optimize the ability to assess and achieve sustainable restoration.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 327

highest rate of coastal wetland loss in the nation, reaching 

a peak of 108.4 km2/yr in the 1970s (Barras and others 

2003, Gagliano and others 1981, Turner and Cahoon 

1987). Although the rate has declined since the 1980s 

(Britsch and Dunbar 1993), nearly half of the wetlands 

present in the 1930s, an area equal to the size of Rhode 

Island (Boesch and others 1994), have been lost. This 

recent net loss of coastal landscape contrasts with the 

historical fluctuation of coastal area, which depended on 

a balance between the progradational processes of active 

delta formation and degradational processes during river 

abandonment, that lead to stable coastal landscapes.

There are several factors in the environmental setting 

of coastal Louisiana that contribute to the present inability of wetlands to maintain surface elevation causing an 

unstable landscape. These factors include: (1) high rate 

of regional subsidence (Penland and Ramsey 1990); (2) 

reduced sediment load in the Mississippi River (Kesel 

1988); (3) elimination of spring overbank flooding of the 

Mississippi River and direct delivery of river sediment to 

floodplain marshes (Day and others 1997, Templet and 

Meyer-Arendt 1988); and (4) extensive landscape and 

hydrologic alterations from human activities, including energy related activities such as the construction 

of canals and navigation channels (Turner and Cahoon 

1987). Determining the relative significance of these 

causal mechanisms to controlling surface elevation (such 

as mineral vs. organic matter accumulation; waterlogging vs. salinity stress) is important in developing the 

conceptual framework and hypotheses of a restoration 

or rehabilitation program.

Restoring functionality to hasten ecosystem rehabilitation is simply the manipulation of ecological succession 

to obtain a specific goal or purpose. Knowledge of the 

ecological theory that pertains to ecosystem development 

fosters more effective restoration planning that is less 

expensive, can be effectively implemented, and gives a 

more desirable final result (Christensen and others 1996). 

Ecosystem restoration can demonstrate much about how 

ecosystems work, provided we compare the effectiveness 

of system response to original hypotheses of causal mechanisms (Ewel 1987). In order to increase our knowledge 

of ecosystem dynamics it requires diagnostic capabilities 

that are based on ecological theory of succession and 

ecosystem development. These diagnostic capabilities 

are presently limited by the ability of scientists to: (1) 

anticipate ecological responses of ecosystems to specific 

manipulations or site conditions; (2) monitor responses of 

ecosystems at sufficient space and time scales to validate 

the responses; and (3) modify or prescribe new operations of rehabilitation projects according to the response 

of the ecosystem to attain specific goals. One of the 

most difficult tasks in restoring ecological systems is the 

selection of the proper set of criteria for site manipulations that will rehabilitate habitats and result in a 

specifically defined structure and function comparable to 

some reference condition. Thus, a fundamental need of 

restoration programs is to develop practical tools and approaches that can be used to predict, monitor, and validate 

the response of ecosystems to rehabilitation criteria.

Louisiana has been at the forefront of coastal wetland 

restoration and rehabilitation efforts for the past two 

decades. The passage of the Coastal Wetlands Planning, 

Protection and Restoration Act (CWPPRA) in 1990 

provided the necessary authorization and funding to accelerate construction of restoration projects throughout 

coastal Louisiana. From 1990 to 2003, the CWPPRA 

program has constructed 68 projects that are expected to 

create, restore, or protect 29,000 ha of wetlands. These 

projects address localized problems (for example, saltwater intrusion, flooding) and are primarily associated with 

hotspots of wetland loss within the coastal landscape. 

The focus of CWPPRA is limited to project-specific 

approaches to restore coastal Louisiana and does not 

address evaluation of larger scale deltaic processes of 

ecosystem sustainability. In December 1998, the Coast 

2050 Plan, the first ecosystem approach for restoring 

coastal Louisiana’s wetlands and associated waters 

(LCWCRTF 1998), was completed. The strategic goals 

of the plan are to: (1) assure vertical accumulation to 

achieve sustainability; (2) maintain estuarine gradient 

to achieve diversity; and (3) maintain exchange and 

interface to achieve system linkages. To be sustainable, 

Louisiana’s marshes require organic and inorganic soil 

accumulation sufficient to keep pace with sea level rise 

and subsidence, a dynamic salinity gradient, and effective 

coupling of subsystems in the estuarine landscape that 

exchange energy and materials. Theories of ecological 

succession and ecosystem development have provided 

the conceptual framework of how a delta works, but the 

challenge is to implement and evaluate these ecosystem concepts. Particular difficulty is in understanding 

the natural variability of functional processes within 

coastal wetland ecosystems in deltaic environments. 

A regional monitoring program was needed to provide 

comprehensive measurements of the major forcing functions at sufficient spatial and temporal scales to validate 

our conceptual framework of ecosystem dynamics in a 

deltaic setting. Additionally, tools were needed to predict trajectories in structural and functional ecosystem 

attributes in space and time to assess sustainability. In 

2002, the Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) Ecosystem 

Restoration Study (USACE 2004) developed conceptual 

and numerical models to integrate ecosystem attributes 

into measures that can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of restoration actions. Without both monitoring and 
328 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

modeling capabilities, it would be difficult to design or 

evaluate restoration projects that are intended to achieve 

ecosystem-level goals of the Coast 2050 plan.

This paper describes the regional monitoring and modeling tools and technologies that have been developed 

under the CWPPRA and the LCA Plan. The proposed 

integration of ecosystem attributes that is critical to assess sustainable restoration at ecosystem scales has also 

been discussed.

Regional Monitoring

Wetland restoration efforts under CWPPRA require 

an evaluation of the effectiveness of individual projects, 

as well as a measure of the cumulative effects of all 

projects in restoring, creating, enhancing, and protecting 

the coastal landscape. In 1994, a monitoring program 

was established to evaluate project-specific goals and 

objectives over each project’s 20-year lifespan by using 

sound scientific procedures. This monitoring program 

relied heavily on the establishment of paired reference 

sites or areas. By 1998, the effectiveness of this approach 

was declining because of: (1) the inability to find comparable reference areas for the large number of restoration 

projects implemented, (2) the inability to discern the 

cumulative effects of all restoration projects conducted 

under multiple mandates, and (3) the inability to assess 

coastwide status and trends due to inconsistency of the 

variables measured across multiple projects. Recognizing 

the benefits of a comprehensive and flexible monitoring 

program and also realizing the increasing limitations 

of identifying paired reference sites, the CWPPRA 

Task Force and the Louisiana State Wetlands Authority 

adopted the Coast-wide Reference Monitoring System 

(CRMS-Wetlands) in 2003 as the future protocol for 

CWPPRA monitoring.

The CRMS-Wetlands will provide an avenue to 

evaluate the effectiveness of the Coast 2050 plan, and 

determine whether entire coastal ecosystems are being 

restored, rather than just the areas directly affected by 

individual projects. The focus of the CRMS-Wetlands

program is to establish monitoring sites in both project 

and non-project (reference) areas, with reference sites 

spanning an entire range of structural and functional response characteristics. Reference sites will therefore have 

similarities as well as differences with project sites and 

through assessments over time will determine the degree 

of ecological variation that was restored. The distribution of these sites will also allow ecological comparisons 

within and between hydrologic basins to evaluate temporal changes at an array of spatial scales ranging from 

vegetation types to entire geomorphic regions.

CRMS-Wetlands was designed to maximize its analytical flexibility while providing information across a 

representative subsample of the major vegetation types in 

coastal Louisiana wetlands. A total of 700 stations were 

identified representing combinations of geomorphology, 

hydrologic basin, project/non-project areas, and vegetation type. The experimental design (with identifying 

stratification, sample size, and sample distribution) is 

described in Steyer and others (2003). Within each strata, 

locations were randomly selected and the sites were 

allocated to represent each marsh type to facilitate the 

evaluation of the stability of the entire ecosystem and 

the effectiveness of the restoration program on a large, 

ecosystem scale. The selection of monitoring variables 

was based on our conceptual understanding of the 

dominant stressors and the response variables that form 

our coastal landscape. Because of resource constraints, 

however, the selection of variables needed to be further 

narrowed. Following the recommendations by Rapport 

(1992) and Schindler (1995), only those variables that 

are thought to be most critical and are the targets of management actions (such as the objectives of the CWPPRA 

program and Coast 2050 plan) are selected. The selected 

variables are crucial in determining the effectiveness of 

the CWPPRA program and include water level, surface 

salinity, sediment elevation, soil organic matter and bulk 

density, vegetation cover and species composition, and 

pore water salinity. Aerial photography will also be collected and analyzed on a 1-km2

 area surrounding each site 

to document changes in land and water areas over time 

and calculate rates of land loss or land gain. Sampling 

methodologies for these variables are described in Steyer 

and others (1995).

The added values inherent in this design (Steyer and 

others 2003) are that many of the selected stations represent a 35-year history of vegetation change, and that the 

transects on which the design is based have been used 

by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries 

(LDWF) not only for vegetation surveys, but also for 

alligator, nutria, muskrat, and water bird surveys. These 

historical survey data from the reference sites provide 

valuable information on past conditions and degrees of 

variability. The monitoring variables that will be collected under CRMS-Wetlands, combined with LDWF 

coast-wide datasets, will provide information on the 

response of vegetated wetlands and the habitats they support. Using geographic information system’s analytical 

applications, resource managers have the flexibility to 

characterize and compare ecological change, from the 

project scale to the entire coast. Resource managers will 

also be able to compare the effects of a specific type of 

restoration effort such as diverting freshwater or sediment 

in a certain basin, or across the coast.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 329

The multiple reference design will provide an understanding of natural variability of the functional 

processes within coastal wetland ecosystems. Achieving 

sustainable restoration requires reference conditions that 

embody the goals and objectives of restoration efforts. 

Reference conditions can be considered a gauge to assess 

the present condition of a system or to evaluate progress 

of management actions toward some target system state 

(the reference or desired condition). Establishing reference conditions for restoration is a critical component of 

managing for sustainability, since the reference condition 

is usually considered to be sustainable. Unfortunately, 

limitations arise, in many large-scale ecosystem restoration projects or programs, due to insufficient data and 

information on the temporal and spatial variability of 

ecosystems.

In addition to the direct benefits of the CRMSWetlands design to the CWPPRA monitoring program, 

this integrated approach will also provide information on 

areas that are currently outside of CWPPRA restoration 

projects which may one day be included within project 

boundaries. By establishing a history of data collection 

at these sites, background data will readily be available 

to speed up the process and provide information which 

could improve the design and effectiveness of future 

projects.

Although project evaluation was a significant impetus for the development of CRMS-Wetlands, an equally 

important benefit is the interdependence of CRMSWetlands data with the development of ecosystem and 

hydrodynamic models. CRMS-Wetlands will provide the 

necessary data to select and scale variables to be used in 

developing, validating and refining functional models of 

response to project-influenced environmental changes. 

In this manner, CRMS-Wetlands will provide a database 

that will aid in understanding the way the coastal system 

operates and how it will change in the future.

LCA Conceptual and 

Numerical Models

Models are conceptual or numerical approximations of 

systems depicting key structural components and system 

drivers that assist us when considering the context and 

scope of the processes that effect ecological integrity 

(Karr 1991). They also provide a heuristic device to 

expand our consideration across traditional discipline 

boundaries (Allen and Hoekstra 1992). Conceptual 

models thereby provide a framework for understanding 

the relationships between physical form and ecological function. In the case of restoring deltaic processes, 

conceptual models provide a framework to integrate 

physical processes, geomorphic features, and ecological 

succession (Twilley 2004).

During the planning phase of the LCA, conceptual and 

numeric models (fig. 1) were developed under the Coastal 

Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration 

(CLEAR) program (Twilley 2004). CLEAR developed 

tools to evaluate the degree to which different restoration alternatives, that utilize strategies of reintroducing 

historical flows of fresh water, nutrients and sediments 

to coastal wetlands, will achieve the Coast 2050 goals. 

Developing and evaluating restoration alternatives of the 

LCA to achieve these goals required linking the changes 

in environmental drivers (processes such as riverine 

input) to specific restoration endpoints (hydrodynamic, 

ecological and water quality) using a variety of modeling approaches. These modeling efforts were designed 

to evaluate how various combinations of conceptual 

restoration features would reduce ecosystem stress, and 

identify ecological benefits spatially across the deltaic 

and chenier plains. This was accomplished by combining 

existing conceptual models of delta evolution and ecological succession. Assumptions of causal mechanisms 

and expected responses were used to forecast site conditions necessary to render ecosystem state change.

The conceptual models (developed for hydrodynamics, land building, habitat switching, habitat use and 

water quality) identified the key ecosystem properties 

(drivers, stressors and response variables) that control 

ecosystem development (table 1). These conceptual models represented the inputs and outputs to various numeric 

models used to estimate benefits of several restoration 

alternatives at a regional scale.

Figure 1. The current ecosystem model for coastal Louisiana 

developed under LCA. Solid arrows reflect current linkages 

among the different modules. Stippled arrows reflect known 

linkages that are currently not incorporated in the model.
330 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Restoration planning also requires a monitoring program that measures actual system responses to evaluate 

the assumptions of model development and to assure the 

basic elements of adaptive environmental assessment 

and management (AEAM). Therefore, the monitoring 

of system responses should be based on indicators that 

reflect the key ecosystem properties (drivers, stressors 

and response variables) highlighted in the ecosystem 

model. The outputs of the LCA ecosystem model can 

serve as some of the performance measures that must 

be identified in AEAM protocol.

Future Directions

Effective monitoring programs can benefit the process of numerical modeling by providing descriptions 

of system response (fig. 2). This process is required to 

adequately test causal hypotheses of system degradation 

upon which restoration measures are designed. This feedback provides a strategic process in performing adaptive 

environmental assessment and management. Sensitivity 

analyses during model development provide science 

programs insights as to what parameters may be the 

most significant ones to system behavior. These exercises 

can also provide insights as to the most cost-effective 

monitoring variables to include in evaluating ecosystem 

response. Uncertainties in model simulations not only 

depend on the natural variability of the ecosystem, but 

also on the lack of knowledge in selecting parameters 

and model development. Monitoring programs can help 

reduce the knowledge-based uncertainty by providing 

data on those parameters that can improve simulation 

capabilities. This feedback improves numerical models 

and reduces scientific uncertainty in understanding causal 

mechanisms associated with system degradation (fig. 2). 

Table 1. Variables included in the LCA ecosystem model.

Module

Hydro- Land Water Habitat Habitat

Variable dynamics Change Quality Switching Use

Wind speed and direction Input

Initial water level Input

Initial salinity Input Input

Initial temperature Input

River temperature Input

Historic land change rates Input

River sediment load Input

Sediment retention factor Input

Bulk density of deltaic soils Input

Initial land area Input Input

Bathymetry Input Input Input

Land elevation Input Input Input Input Input

Diversion flows Input Input Input

River nitrogen Input

Nourishment factor Output Input

Salinity Output Input Input Input

Water level Output Input Input Input

Water residence time Output Input

Water temperature Output Input Input

Wetland area Output Input Input Input

Habitat type Output Input

Nitrogen removal Output

Water primary production Output

Wetland primary production Output

Habitat quality alligator, Output

Habitat quality dabbling duck Output

Habitat quality mink Output

Habitat quality muskrat Output

Habitat quality otter Output

Habitat quality Atlantic croaker Output

Habitat quality brown shrimp Output

Habitat quality gulf menhaden Output

Habitat quality largemouth bass Output

Habitat quality oyster Output

Habitat quality spotted sea-trout Output

Habitat quality white shrimp Output
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 331

The ability to predict how ecosystems will respond to prescribed changes in environmental settings will be much 

improved with rigorous numerical modeling exercises as 

the initial stages of restoration planning. This modeling 

process is critical since it contributes to the development 

of ecological theory that can be immediately used in 

developing restoration strategies and provides a direct 

link between science and management.

System-wide Assessment and 

Monitoring Plan

A System-wide Assessment and Monitoring Plan 

(SWAMP) is proposed that will evaluate the key 

processes and system linkages assumed to be causal 

mechanisms of system degradation in the LCA conceptual models. SWAMP will expand upon existing 

monitoring and modeling efforts within a system-wide 

experimental design by monitoring biological, chemical, 

physical, and climatological variables in four modules: 

wetlands (CRMS-Wetlands), barrier islands (Barrier 

Island Comprehensive Monitoring [BICM]), inshore 

waters and rivers, and nearshore coastal waters (fig. 3). 

The variables monitored will include those necessary to 

assess restoration project performance measures, as well 

as those variables identified through modeling efforts to 

be most critical to document the long-term restoration 

of Louisiana’s coastal ecosystems. The first of these 

modules, CRMS-Wetlands, as discussed earlier, was 

designed under the CWPPRA monitoring program and is 

Figure 2. The linkage of modeling, monitoring and research programs in an integrated adaptive environmental 

assessment and management structure.

Figure 3. A proposed conceptual model for system-wide 

integration of monitoring in coastal Louisiana.
332 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

compatible with the conceptual framework utilized in the 

LCA modeling effort (fig. 1). The BICM Plan is currently 

in development and incorporates variables that are important to monitor and model barrier island changes. This 

plan was developed to incorporate variables necessary 

for barrier island project design, monitoring, evaluation, 

and predictive model development, and includes such 

variables as topography (LiDAR surveys), bathymetry, 

habitat classification, sediment properties, geophysical 

data (wave, current, water level, meteorological data) 

and vegetation composition.

The LCA Study and SWAMP have integrated the 

monitoring and modeling needs for coastal Louisiana 

to support refinement of ecological, hydrodynamic, and 

water quality models as well as restoration assessment 

(fig. 2). In addition to the integration of monitoring 

and modeling, however, a successful program needs 

an ongoing AEAM program to facilitate the continued 

feedback and institutional learning necessary to advance 

restoration science and improve the efficiency of wetland 

restoration and rehabilitation. In 2002, CWPPRA initiated an AEAM review on constructed restoration projects 

that incorporated input from multiple disciplines from 

state and federal agencies and academia. This review 

resulted in 51 project-specific recommendations, 94 

lessons learned, 25 recommendations for improvement 

by project-type, and several recommendations to improve the overall program, illustrating the need for this 

approach to continue program advancement (Raynie 

and Visser 2002). The AEAM approach has also been 

embedded into the LCA Plan to ensure that the advancement of science continues and the implementation and 

management of restoration and rehabilitation projects 

improves with time.

The data gathered under CRMS-Wetlands and the 

other SWAMP modules will provide the robust datasets 

needed to improve the parameter quality and reduce the 

uncertainty associated with model development. Perhaps 

a major challenge facing the LCA Plan lies in the inherent uncertainty of how well a proposed restoration effort 

will work. This is particularly relevant for the LCA Plan 

since it depends on the results of a complex suite of hydrodynamic and ecological simulation models. Given the 

physical complexity of the Louisiana coastal ecosystems, 

the predictive abilities of such models are far from perfect. 

Climatic, hydrologic, and ecological data used as model 

inputs and boundary conditions are usually available 

at limited spatial and temporal sampling resolutions. 

Thus, the LCA recognized the critical need for integrated 

monitoring and modeling capabilities at a regional scale, 

and the need for an AEAM framework to support decision-making. The challenges for restoration monitoring 

in Louisiana are in deciding which attributes of ecosystems to monitor, in determining which of the changes in 

attributes observed represent significant departures from 

expected natural variability, and in using that information 

to make the best informed management decisions.

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E. 1995 (revised 2000). Quality management plan for 

Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration 

Act monitoring program. Open- File Report 95-01. Baton 

Rouge: Louisiana Department of Natural Resources, 

Coastal Restoration Division. 97 p.

Steyer, G. D.; Sasser, C. E.; Visser, J. M.; Swenson, E. M.; 

Nyman, J. A.; Raynie, R. C. 2003. A proposed coast-wide 

reference monitoring system for evaluating wetland restoration trajectories in Louisiana. Environmental Monitoring 

and Assessment. 81: 107-117.

Templet, P. H.; Meyer-Arendt, K. J. 1988. Louisiana wetland 

loss: Regional water management approach to the problem. 

Environmental Management. 12: 181-192.

Turner, R. E.; Cahoon, D. R. (eds.) 1987. Causes of wetland 

loss in the Coastal Central Gulf of Mexico. Volume II: 

Technical Narrative. Final report submitted to Minerals 

Management Service, New Orleans, LA. Contract No. 14-

12-0001-30252. OCS Study/MMS 87-0120. 400 p.

Twilley, R. R. (ed.) 2004. Louisiana Coastal Area (LCA) 

Ecosystem Restoration Study, Appendix C. July 2004. 

282 p.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) 2004. Louisiana 

Coastal Area (LCA) Ecosystem Restoration Study, Volume 

1: LCA Study – Main Report. July 2004. 267 p.

White, D. S.; Howes, B. L. 1994. Translocation, remineralization and turnover of nitrogen in the roots and rhizomes of 

Spartina alterniflora (Gramineae). American Journal of 

Botany. 81: 1225-1234.
334 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Nutrient pollution has recently been identified as the 

greatest threat to U.S. coastal water quality (Boesch and 

others 2001, CSO 1999, NRC 2000). Sources of nutrients include atmospheric deposition, groundwater, and 

point and non-point sources. Potential consequences of 

nutrient enrichment range from ecological changes to 

socio-economic impairments (for example, fisheries) to 

serious human health threats (fig. 1).

Symptoms of eutrophication include low dissolved 

oxygen, nuisance and toxic algal blooms, shifts in algal community composition, and losses of submerged 

aquatic plants that serve as habitat for fish species important to coastal fisheries. These impacts cause economic 

losses to tourism, and to commercial and recreational 

fisheries (Lipton 2003, Lipton and Hicks 1999, 2003). 

Additionally, weakening or destroying native flora and 

fauna provides the opportunity for colonization by invasive species.

Assessment of Eutrophication in Estuaries: 

Pressure-State-Response and Source Apportionment

David Whitall and Suzanne Bricker, staff scientists, National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Center for Coastal Monitoring 

and Assessment, N/SCI SSMC4, Silver Spring, MD

Abstract—The National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) Update Program 

is a management oriented program designed to improve monitoring and assessment 

efforts through the development of type specific classification of estuaries that will allow 

improved assessment methods and development of analytical and research models and 

tools for managers which will help guide and improve management success for estuaries 

and coastal resources. The assessment methodology, a Pressure-State-Response (PSR) 

approach, uses a simple model for determination of Pressure and statistical criteria 

for indicator variables (where possible) to determine State. The Response determination is mostly heuristic although research models are being developed to improve this 

component. The three components are determined individually and then combined 

into a single rating.

 In addition to the PSR approach, it is also valuable to identify and quantify the anthropogenic nutrient input sources to estuaries so that management measures can be targeted 

for maximum effect. Since nitrogen is often the limiting nutrient in estuarine systems, the 

sources of nitrogen have been determined for eleven coastal watersheds on the U.S. east 

coast using the WATERSN model. In general, estuaries in the Northeastern U.S. receive 

most of their nitrogen from human sewage, followed by atmospheric deposition. This is 

in contrast to some watersheds in the Mid-Atlantic (Chesapeake Bay) and South Atlantic 

(Pamlico Sound) which receive most of their nitrogen from agricultural runoff.

Figure 1. Conceptual model of eutrophication.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 335

The National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment 

(NEEA) Update Program is a management oriented 

program designed to improve monitoring and assessment efforts through the development of type specific 

classification of estuaries that will allow improved assessment methods, development of analytical and research 

models and tools for managers which will help guide and 

improve management success for estuaries and coastal 

resources.

The objectives of this paper are to describe the 

NEEA methodology and the program plan for update of 

the assessment that was recommended at the National 

Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment Update Workshop 

in September, 2002 (Bricker and others 2004) and to 

link nitrogen (N) source apportionment modeling to this 

assessment work.

NOAA’s Estuarine 

Eutrophication Assessment

The intent of the NEEA update is to develop a monitoring and assessment program for periodic assessment 

updates that will inform managers, researchers, and 

politicians about the success of legislation and management measures designed to address eutrophication issues. 

This program is meant to be a companion program to 

the National Research Program for Nutrient Pollution in 

Coastal Waters (Howarth and others 2003) and interactive with European Commission efforts such as the Water 

Framework Directive 2000/60/EC (WFD, for example; 

Coast 2003) and OSPAR (2002).

In the early 1990s in response to the knowledge that 

some estuaries were showing signs of nutrient related 

degradation as evidenced by hypoxia in Long Island 

Sound, Chesapeake Bay and Mobile Bay (Welsh 1991) 

and the concern that this might be a wide spread problem, 

NOAA conducted a nationwide assessment to discern the 

magnitude, severity and location of eutrophic conditions. 

The intent was to learn whether these problems were 

local, regional or national in scale, to determine probable causes, and to provide this information to managers 

such that observed problems could be addressed at the 

appropriate level (national, state or local legislation). The 

National Estuarine Eutrophication Assessment (NEEA) 

involved about four hundred participants from academia, 

state, federal and local agencies who provided information and data for one hundred thirty eight U.S. estuaries 

and coastal waters (NOAA 1996, 1997a, b, a, 1998). 

Assessment results show that nutrient related water 

quality problems occur on a national basis (Bricker and 

others 1999, fig. 2).

Since the release of the NEEA there has been interest in an update of the assessment given the expected 

increase in problems in the future as coastal populations, 

use of fertilizers and fossil fuels continue to increase 

(Bricker and others 1999, NRC 2000). There is interest 

in improvement of the accuracy and applicability of the 

methodology including:

update of the assessment to learn whether the systems 

that were expected to become worse have done so,

the use of data to complement and inform “expert 

knowledge,”

development of a type classification to improve the 

accuracy of the assessment methods,

improvement of assessment methods to include, for 

example, type specific selection of indicator variables 

and variable thresholds,

development of a socioeconomic indicator to complement the existing indices and to establish a meaningful 

framework for assessing impairments to human uses 

and specifying appropriate responses,

development of tools and predictive models that are 

useful to resource managers and can help them to 

make informed decisions and to assess alternative 

management strategies,

apportionment of nutrient sources to support implementation of appropriate management measures.

The NEEA/ASSETS Assessment 

Methodology

The NEEA model (Bricker and others 1999), and 

recent modifications described in the Assessment of 

Estuarine Trophic Status (ASSETS; Bricker and others 2003), uses a Pressure-State-Response framework to 

assess eutrophication in three component parts:

Overall human influence (OHI) on development of 

conditions (Pressure),

Overall eutrophic conditions (OEC) within a water 

body (State), and

Determination of future outlook (DFO) for conditions 

within the system (Response)

The original method is described here in brief, as are recent improvements and modifications made by ASSETS 

(Bricker and others 2003). A full description of the original method can be found in Bricker and others (1999) and 

details for modifications can be found in Bricker and others (2003) and Ferreira and others (submitted).

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33

6 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. Figure 2. Map showing U.S. estuaries with “High” levels of eutrophic expression (from Bricker and others 1999).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 337

Determination of pressure—Overall Human 

Influence (OHI)

Pressure is determined by combining in a matrix an 

estimation of susceptibility of a system which is based 

on the ability of a system to dilute and flush nutrients 

from the system and the level of nutrient inputs from 

the watershed. Participants in the NEEA used watershed nutrient model estimates (SPARROW; Smith and 

others 1997), watershed population density and other 

demographic data in the Coastal Assessment and Data 

Synthesis (CADS 1999) to estimate inputs, and hydrologic and physical data from CADS (1999) to determine 

susceptibility.

In ASSETS, improvements were made to the original 

methodology by applying a simple model to compare 

anthropogenic nutrient loading and natural background 

concentrations. The model also factors in potential nutrient inputs from oceanic sources thus addressing the 

question of whether management measures would be 

successful. For a full description of model development 

see Bricker and others (2003) and Ferreira and others 

(submitted).

Determination of state—Overall Eutrophic 

Condition (OEC)

Six variables were selected from the original 16 

used in the NEEA (Bricker and others 1999) for 

determination of OEC. These were divided into two 

groups, primary or early stage symptoms (chlorophyll 

a, epiphytes, macroalgae) and secondary (dissolved 

oxygen, SAV loss, harmful algal bloom occurrence) or 

well developed eutrophication symptoms. Statistical 

criteria are used for quantifying chlorophyll a and 

dissolved oxygen (90th percentile for chlorophyll and 

10th percentile for dissolved oxygen; Bricker and others 

2003). Additional improvements to the original “expert 

knowledge” methodology have been proposed for macroalgae, epiphytes and submerged aquatic vegetation 

based on comparison of potential area of colonization 

and effective colonized area. Presently these are still 

determined heuristically.

An area weighted estuary wide value for each variable is determined based on concentration, spatial 

coverage, and frequency of extreme occurrences. The 

primary symptom expression level is determined by 

averaging the three estuary level of expression values, 

while the highest of the three secondary symptoms is 

selected. These values are combined in a matrix to 

determine an overall ranking of eutrophic conditions 

for the estuary.

Determination of response—Determination of 

Future Outlook (DFO)

Response is determined by a matrix that combines susceptibility of the system with expected future changes in 

nutrient loads. Predictions of nutrient loading (increase, 

decrease, unchanged) are based on predicted population 

increase, planned management actions and expected 

changes in watershed uses.

Synthesis—grouping of pressure, state and 

response indicators

An additional modification to the original methodology (ASSETS; Bricker and others 2003) combines the 

OEC, OHI, and DFO into a single overall score falling 

into one of five categories: high, good, moderate, poor 

or bad. These categories are color-coded following 

the convention of the EU Water Framework Directive 

(2000/60/EC), and provide a scale for setting eutrophication related reference conditions for different types 

of systems.

Additional modifications: NEEA update 

program

Further modifications that are presently being pursued 

in the NEEA update program include: the development 

of a type classification based on physical and hydrologic 

characteristics using the Deluxe Integrated System for 

Clustering Operations (DISCO) tool (Smith and Maxwell 

2002). Preliminary results are promising (Smith and 

others 2004) and will be used to determine type specific 

reference conditions and thresholds for desirable/undesirable conditions for indicator variables. Additionally, 

indicator variables are being evaluated by type to ensure 

that all types of estuaries are assessed with indicators 

that are relevant. For instance, in types where there is 

no SAV under natural conditions, an alternative indicator will be used.

A socio-economic/human use indicator is being developed where changes in fish catch rate are related to 

changes in water quality in the manner of Lipton and 

Hicks (1999, 2003) and Mistiaen and others (2003). 

Preliminary analysis of Long Island Sound data shows 

that as nitrogen inputs decrease, dissolved oxygen and 

recreational catch of striped bass increase. The increase 

in catch is shown to be related to changes in oxygen 

when other influences (for example, fishermen avidity 

and experience, temperature, changes in fish stock) are 

accounted for (Mason and others 2004).

In addition to the assessment and typology activities of 

the NEEA, the quantification of the relative importance of 
338 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

various sources of nutrient pollution to estuaries is considered to be a critical step for coastal management.

Source Apportionment

Primary productivity in aquatic ecosystems is most 

often limited by either nitrogen or phosphorus. In most 

estuarine systems, nitrogen is the limiting nutrient, in 

contrast to freshwater systems where phosphorus limits 

production. This study focuses on identifying the sources 

of nitrogen pollution to eleven watersheds on the U.S. 

east coast.

Nitrogen inputs to coastal systems originates from 

both point and non-point sources. Point sources include: 

wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) and industrial 

discharges. Non-point sources include: agricultural 

runoff, septic systems, and urban and suburban runoff. 

Atmospheric deposition of N (AD-N) has also been 

identified as a potentially important source of N for many 

coastal ecosystems (Nixon 1995, Paerl and others 2002, 

Valiela and others 1992, Whitall and others 2003).

Quantitatively describing the sources of nitrogen pollution to an estuary is necessary for the implementation 

of appropriate and effective management strategies for 

reducing nitrogen loading, and ultimately, the effects of 

eutrophication.

WATERS N Model Description

A useful approach for quantifying the relative importance of each source of nitrogen to coastal receiving waters 

is a numerical watershed model. The model used in this 

study was the Watershed Assessment Tool for Evaluating 

Reduction Strategies for Nitrogen (WATERSN, fig. 3). 

The mass balance approach of this model has been presented previously (Castro and others 2000, Castro and 

Driscoll 2002, Castro and others 2003, Whitall and others 

in prep) but is described briefly here.

This model estimates the amount of N available for 

transport to estuaries from lands in agricultural production (crops, orchards, and pastures), urban areas, and 

forests. The quantity of N exported from agricultural 

lands to the surface waters of the watershed is estimated as the difference between N inputs and N outputs. 

Nitrogen inputs for the agricultural budgets include:

N fertilization (fertilizer sales data by county),

N fixation (unique values by crop; Castro and others 

2000),

livestock waste (the difference between feed imports 

and production of meat, milk, and eggs), and

atmospheric deposition of NH4+ and NO3- (from 

National Atmospheric Deposition Program/National 

Trends Network data).

Outputs from agricultural lands include:

crop harvest (agricultural census data),

pasture grazing (agricultural census data),

volatilization of NH3 (10% of fertilizer and atmospheric deposition, 15% of animal waste; Schlesinger 

and Hartley 1992) and

denitrification (10% of inputs; Meisinger and Randall 

1991).

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Figure 3. Conceptual diagram of 

Watershed Assessment Tool for 

Evaluating Reduction Strategies 

for Nitrogen (WATERSN) 

model.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 339

Nitrogen export from urban areas includes:

wastewater treatment plant effluent (point sources),

leachate from septic systems and

non-point source runoff (from SWAT model predictions; Neitsch and others 2001) from pervious and 

impervious surfaces in urban areas.

Atmospheric deposition of inorganic N and non-symbiotic N fixation were assumed to be the only N inputs 

to forests. The contribution made by AD-N to the total 

N runoff from upland forests was assumed to be the 

same proportion that AD-N made to the total N inputs.

N export from upland forests is estimated using a nonlinear regression relationship between wet deposition 

of NH4+ and NO3- and stream water N export of dissolved inorganic N (NH4+ and NO3-) using results of 

numerous forest watershed studies in the U.S.( Driscoll 

unpublished data, Neitsch and others 2001). Dissolved 

organic N contribution to the total N loads is assumed to 

be equal to 50% of the inorganic N load exported from 

forests (Castro and Driscoll 2002). Rates of in-stream 

N loss were based on literature values and calibrated 

by comparing predicted and measured riverine fluxes. 

Castro and others (2003) calibrated the model against 

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Stream Quality 

Accounting Network (NASQAN) for 18 watersheds in 

the eastern U.S. by adjusting the watershed and riverine 

N sinks. The calibrated model loadings agreed well 

(slope=0.995, r2=0.9997) with USGS loading values.

It is important to note that all biogeochemical models, 

no matter how complex, are simplifications of the natural 

world and are therefore limited in their predictive capacities. With an understanding of the imperfections of any 

given model, it can be used as a tool to address questions 

of interest to environmental managers.

WATERSN Results—Northeastern and 

Middle Atlantic United States

The WATERSN model was used to determine 

the sources of nitrogen for Casco Bay, Great Bay, 

Merrimack River, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts 

Bay, Narragansett Bay, Long Island Sound, Raritan 

Bay, Delaware Bay, Chesapeake Bay, and Pamlico 

Sound (fig. 4). The results presented here compare 

well with independently published SPARROW 

model results (Smith and others 1997).

For the purposes of this study, the Northeast has 

been operationally defined as Delaware Bay and 

north. Chesapeake Bay and Pamlico Sound are defined as Mid-Atlantic estuaries. Patterns in sources 

of nitrogen to east coast estuaries vary by region 

with striking differences between the Northeast and 

the Mid-Atlantic.

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In the Northeast, human sewage is the major source 

of N loading for all estuaries (36-81%). In addition, 

runoff from atmospheric deposition (14-35%), urban 

areas (<1-20%), agricultural systems (4-20%) and forest 

lands (<1-5%) contributes N to these coastal ecosystems. 

Atmospheric N deposition, either through direct deposition to the estuary surface or through watershed runoff 

of atmospheric deposition, was generally the second 

highest source of N. A notable exception to this pattern 

is Delaware Bay, where the second highest source of N 

was agricultural runoff.

In the Chesapeake Bay and Pamlico Sound, agricultural runoff dominates the N loading (55% and 79%, 

respectively) with wastewater effluent (21% and 12%) 

and atmospheric deposition also contributing significant 

loads (22% and 8%, respectively). Loadings from urban 

(2% and <1%) and forest runoff (1% and <1%) made up 

smaller portions of the total N load to these systems. This 

difference in patterns between regions reflects both the 

differences in watershed populations, which drives the 

sewage flux, and differences in land use (agricultural vs. 

non-agricultural).

It is also important to note that the nitrogen pollution 

that contributes to the atmospheric depositional flux 

originates from a variety of sources. It is difficult to determine exactly what portion of the deposited nitrogen 

originates from each source, but the relative sources of 

atmospheric emissions can be quantified. The airsheds, 

or atmospheric pollutant source areas, for estuaries on the 

eastern U.S. seaboard have been delineated previously 

(Paerl and others 2002). The sources of nitrogen oxide 

(NOx) emissions for the airsheds of the eleven study 

estuaries vary by airshed and include:

on-road mobile sources (31-38%),

non-road mobile sources (12-21%),

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Figure 4. Nitrogen source apportionment for 11 U.S. east coast 

estuaries. Location of estuaries (inset).
340 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

area sources (9-28%),

fossil fuel combustion from electric utilities (19-23%) 

and

industrial sources (9-12%) (USEPA 1998).

Anthropogenic emissions of ammonia (NH3) also vary 

between airsheds and include:

agricultural animal waste (60-73%),

chemical fertilizers (13-16%),

domestic animals (4-7%),

human breath and perspiration (3-7%),

sewage treatment plants and septic systems (3-6%),

industrial point sources (2%) and

mobile sources (1-2%) (Strader and others 2001).

Conclusions

In summary, the intent of the National Estuarine 

Eutrophication Assessment Update Program is to improve monitoring and assessment efforts through the 

development of type specific classification of estuaries. This will allow for the improvement of assessment 

methods and the development of analytical and research 

models and tools for managers which will help guide and 

improve management success for estuaries and coastal 

resources.

An important component of the NEEA Update 

Program is identification and quantification of nutrient 

sources to estuaries that are sensitive to eutrophication. 

Here, nitrogen sources to eleven east coast estuaries 

have been reported. There are stark regional differences 

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between watersheds in the Northeast (dominated by 

human sewage followed by atmospheric deposition/

agriculture) and the Mid-Atlantic (dominated by agricultural runoff followed by atmospheric deposition/human 

sewage). These regional differences highlight the need 

for the sort of typology work (DISCO cluster analysis) 

that is being conducted as part of the NEEA Update 

Program. These differences will dictate the appropriate 

management strategies that will be most successful in 

protecting and remediating waterbodies that are sensitive to and degraded by nutrient inputs. Generally, these 

results suggest that sewage related nutrients should be 

further reduced in the Northeast region while reductions 

in agriculturally related nutrients should be the focus of 

management efforts in the Mid Atlantic region. Both 

regions would also benefit from efforts to reduce/limit 

atmospheric nutrient sources.

These results show that the WATERSN model can be 

applied to most estuaries and is a useful tool for resource 

managers. A similar modeling approach could be used to 

quantify the phosphorus loading to P sensitive estuaries 

to provide the basis for development of a comprehensive 

nutrient management plan that includes both P and N.

Acknowledgments

We would like to thank Mark Castro (University of 

Maryland) and Charles Driscoll (Syracuse University) 

for their extensive work in the original design of the 

WATERSN model. We also wish to thank Joao Ferreira 

and Teresa Simas (Institute of Marine Research, Portugal) 

Table 1. Watershed and Estuary characteristics.

Watershed Total N load to

Area1 Estuarine estuary1 % %

System (km2

) Area2 (km2) (kg N ha-1 yr-1) % Ag1 Sewage1 AD-N1 OEC3

AD-N1 OEC3

Casco Bay 2188 427 4.2 5 41 35 MH

Great Bay 2491 47 6.9 19 36 20 MH

Merrimack River 12458 16 8.2 5 70 19 U

Massachusetts Bay 2089 768 35.8 5 81 14 M

Buzzards Bay 1021 639 18.1 20 62 17 ML

Narragansett Bay 4018 416 20.3 8 70 18 ML

Long Island Sound 40774 3259 9.8 6 70 19 MH

Raritan Bay 36114 799 19.1 4 75 16 M

Delaware Bay 30792 2070 15.7 34 47 17 ML

Chesapeake Bay 160765 5470 9.0 55 21 22 H

Pamlico Sound 25090 452 17.3 79 12 8 U

The sum of percentages equals less than 100% because forest runoff and urban runoff make up minor parts of 

the nitrogen budget for each of these systems. Please see figure 3 for their contributions.

1

 From Whitall and others (in prep). “Ag” is agricultural runoff; “AD-N” is atmospheric nitrogen deposition.

2

 From S. Smith 2004. Preliminary NOAA estuarine typology database, August 2003.

3

 From Bricker and others 1999. “OEC” is overall eutrophic condition. ML = moderate low; M = moderate; MH =moderate high; 

H = high; U = unknown.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 341

for their efforts to improve the assessment methodology. The authors are grateful to the National Centers for 

Coastal Ocean Science for supporting this work.

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Rhizosphere Systems and 

Processes
344 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

An alternative to dense grid soil sampling for delineating residual soil N levels or N availability is a zone 

sampling approach. The zone approach assumes that soil 

N patterns are logically linked to some inherent causal 

effect, either natural or man-made. A number of delineation methods have been examined, including apparent 

soil EC (Kitchen and others 1999), yield mapping (Taylor 

and Whitney 2001, Diker and others 2002), topography 

(Franzen and others 1998), aerial imagery (Williams and 

others 2002, Sripada and others 2002), satellite imagery 

(Shanahan and others 2000), use of soil survey (Franzen 

and others 2001), organic matter (Fleming and Buchleiter 

2002), and grain protein (Long and others 1998).

Extensive research has been conducted on the best 

predictors for determining optimal nitrogen management zones in site-specific farming (Bausch and others 

2002, Fleming and Buchleiter 2002, Franzen and Nanna 

2002, Hendrickson and Han 2000, Lund and others 2002, 

Stenger and others 2002). A number of studies have begun 

to investigate the use of multiple data layers to improve 

delineation of nutrient management zones (Whelan and 

others 2002, Kitchen and others 2002, Chang and others 

2002). Various statistical tools have been used, including 

cluster analysis (Jaynes and others 2003, Kitchen and others 2002, Ralston and others 2002) and neural networks 

(Drummond and others 2002, Gautam and others 2002) 

group data and delineate management zones.

The objective of our work is to investigate the application of a classified, weighted method to determine 

patterns of residual soil N. The resulting zones can then 

be sampled in preparation for an N fertilizer application. 

Several types of data layers, including yield maps, satellite and aerial imagery, Order 1 soil survey, apparent soil 

EC and topography, were compared individually, and 

grouped together to determine whether one method was 

superior to others, and whether a combination of layers 

would better delineate soil N patterns.

Materials and Methods

The study site was a 12.5 ha field located near Valley 

City, North Dakota, 46.87495° north and 97.91001° west. 

Data collection that took place during 2001 and 2002 consisted of soil and plant sampling, referenced with a DGPS 

(differentially corrected global positioning system) unit. 

Soil samples were taken in a 33-m systematic grid, for 

a total of 144 samples, and then analyzed for nitrate-N 

at the 0-60 cm depth and organic matter at the 0-15 cm 

depth. Apparent soil electrical conductivity readings were 

obtained using a Veris 3100 sensor, driving in passes 

approximately 16 m apart. Elevation was measured with 

a laser beam survey emitter and detection pole, with 

readings at approximately the same locations as the soil 

samples. The Order 1 soil survey (1-8,000 scale) was 

produced by Dr. D. H. Hopkins, a registered soil surveyor 

Use of Data Layering to Address Changes in Nitrogen 

Management Zone Delineation

D.W. Franzen, Extension Soil Specialist, North Dakota State University, Fargo, ND

T. Nanna, graduate student, North Dakota State University

Abstract—Use of N management zones appears to be a practical method of revealing 

dominant patterns of residual soil nitrate in North Dakota crop fields, where fall soil 

nitrate sampling is a common N management tool. Delineation of zone boundaries to 

date has been a largely subjective process. A weighted, classified method of delineating 

nitrogen management zones is presented. Soil electrical conductivity sensor measurements, aerial color photography, Landsat 7 satellite NDVI imagery, and yield maps were 

divided into five classes using natural break algorithms to separate data into classes. 

Five zones of topographic relief, and Order 1 soil surveys were also used as classes. Soil 

sampling was conducted in a 33-m grid in a 12.5 ha field. Areas within zones produced 

from classification were given residual soil nitrate values based on mean zone interior 

nitrate sampling. The resulting meta-data was compared with a base 33-m sampling 

grid nitrate analysis for the 12.5 ha field. Layers of data were also combined, classified 

into zones, and compared with the base grid. Combinations of layers were generally 

superior in correlation values, compared with individual layers.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 345

and Assistant Professor in the NDSU Department of 

Soil Science. Yield maps were developed using data 

from a John Deere Greenstar yield monitor.

Remotely sensed images, consisting of aerial photographs and Landsat 7 satellite images were also 

obtained for the 2001 and 2002 crop seasons. Aerial 

pictures of the field were taken using Ektochrome 

color film, flown at about 1,650 m elevation and then 

scanned and saved as TIFF images with red, blue, 

and green bands. The Landsat 5 and 7 satellite images used in this study are composed of blue, green 

and red bands in the visible part of the spectrum, as 

well as three bands in the near and mid infrared and 

one band in the thermal infrared part of the spectrum. 

The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 

from the satellite images were calculated using the 

Idrisi32 and the ArcGIS 8.2 software.

NDVI, derived from reflectance measurements in the 

red and infrared portions of the spectrum (NDVI= (IR 

– red)/ (IR + Red)), is useful in describing the relative 

amount of green biomass on the field and is a good indicator of healthy and dense vegetation (Sah and others 2002). 

Minitab was used to perform statistical analysis on the 

data. Surfer 8 was used to interpolate soil data, using 

inverse distance squared, with eight nearest neighbors to 

develop an interpolation grid, then to convert from grid 

to raster images and generate the zone maps.

Weighted Classified Method

This methodology consists of: 1) Classification of 

data; 2) assigning weights to different types of data, based 

on residual nitrate correlation between base soil nitrate 

grid and N zones; and 3) comparing the final nitrogen 

zones against actual soil residual nitrate data. Various 

criteria can be used for assigning weights according to the 

best candidates; however, when several layers of different 

types of data are involved care must be exercised.

Jessop (2003) recommends three techniques for assigning weights to candidates: 1) sensitivity analysis, 

which consists of assessment under a number of alternative scenarios; 2) robustness, which looks for the most 

superior alternative among a group; and 3) risk aversion, 

which seeks the alternative that is least inferior to others. 

Correlation and regression analysis can be applied at each 

scale to quantify the relationship between the different 

types of data (Long 1998) and identify the appropriate 

scale for modeling, as well as the effect that scaling has 

on the data.

The first step in detecting patterns for nitrogen zone 

delineation is classification of all datasets into performance zones, such as low, medium low, medium, 

medium high, and high. We have found in our study that 

if we compile zones out of a few large blocks of data, 

the patterns tend to reflect less variability of residual 

nitrate in the field than do more detailed zone patterns. 

For example our correlation values between topography 

and residual nitrate increased from about 5 to about 41 

percent, when we further subdivided concave and convex 

slopes into various transitional categories. Therefore, we 

recommend compiling at least five zones for each type 

of data, in order to capture the maximum variability for 

the field, as shown in figure 1.

Next, an average nitrogen value is assigned to these 

different zones by selecting soil samples located at the 

center of each zone, which have been analyzed for residual nitrate. Figure 2 shows the layering of residual 

nitrate against spring wheat yield from data collected 

in 2002. The red polygons in figure 2 indicate the soil 

samples that will be chosen to calculate the average 

nitrogen for each zone. Select only the center samples, 

avoiding field corners and zone boundaries. Next assign 

the N average value to all the other points of the zone as 

shown in figure 3.

The next step in construction delineation zones consists of performing simple linear regression analysis 

for each type of data, where the averaged N values are 

compared against the actual soil nitrate values. At this 

point, weights can be assigned to each type of data according to those correlations, in order to form patterns 

that will predict future delineation zones for nitrogen. 

A final map is compiled by combining all the selected 

data multiplied by the appropriate weights into one map 

using the expression: Zones = (data-1 * R-1) + (data-2 

* R-2) + ...+ (data-n * R-n). Regression analysis is then 

once again performed, but this time it will be correlating 

the final patterns against residual nitrate. At this stage, 

Figure 1. Data are classified into five performance zones and 

recorded at each sampling grid cell.
346 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

we recommend trying different combinations of smaller 

datasets or comparing data from different years, if available, to strengthen the model and detect consistent trends. 

Analysis of trends is an invaluable tool for building a 

reliable model. Rather than obtaining a perfect correlation with the nitrogen data, the main goal is to provide an 

overall pattern that characterizes the key zones of nitrate 

homogeneity in the field.

Multiple combinations of data were compared first by 

normalizing the data, then by assigning a weight to each 

data layer based on the correlation of individual data 

layers with nitrate. At each grid point, the normalized, 

weighted value of the one layer is multiplied by the other 

normalized, weighted layer or layers of data to create a 

new zone map. The average nitrate values within each 

Figure 2. Residual nitrate is overlaid against the yield map, 

then the samples located within the interior of each zone 

are selected (two examples shown in red polygons). Values 

at the edge of the zone are not considered.

Figure 3. Mean nitrate-N values are assigned at sampling 

locations within each zone.

of the five zones produced were determined 

as explained above and regression analysis 

was conducted against the point sampled 

nitrate data set.

Results

Nitrogen zones at the Valley City research 

site were delineated in both years 2001 and 

2002. By ranking the data according to 

correlations (tables 1 and 2) the nitrogen 

delineation maps for 2001 and 2002 were 

obtained (fig. 4).

The patterns expressed from our data in 

2001 and 2002 are similar. The northwest 

corner has consistently showed low residual 

nitrate for both years, while the northeast 

and southeast corners have presented higher 

levels of nitrate-N. Since this site has pronounced differences in elevation between 

those corners, it is possible that slope position and 

landform can greatly help explain nitrogen distribution. 

Studies by Franzen and others. (1998) have shown that 

in North Dakota topography patterns may be related to 

residual nitrate patterns. Nitrate responds to water movement on and within the landscape. Even though nitrate 

is a mobile nutrient, it usually moves to the same slope 

positions in the landscape. In addition, the northwest 

corner appears to be a location where limited drainage 

frequently causes ponding and plant growth is poor. 

Figure 5 shows the distribution of nitrogen over the 

research site terrain for both 2001 and 2002.

All comparisons of zone delineation methods were 

significantly correlated with the base nitrate sampling 

grid at the 5 percent probability level or less. Methods 

with r values less than 0.3 were 2001 EC, 2002, EC, 

2001, Order 1 soil survey and 2002 aerial photograph 

(table 1). The 2002 aerial photograph may have been 

lower than 2001 because the photograph taken was an 

infrared digital photograph, compared to the Ektochrome 

color photograph taken in 2001. Direct correlation with 

EC data was evident in both years. Low EC values are 

common in both low nitrate areas and areas with apparent 

lateral water flow over a sloping argillic horizon, which 

results in an area lower in total salts, but higher in nitrate. 

Higher r values were obtained with topography, yield, 

2001 Order 1 soil survey, 2001 aerial photography and 

satellite imagery in both years.

Consistency of correlation between years would probably be important for any delineation method, since most 

commercial applications would not have as robust a data 

set to compare and evaluate their zone strategy choice. 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 347

Topography, yield and satellite image had the most consistent r values in a higher range than other comparisons 

between years. Topography, as depicted in figure 5, seems 

to show some promise in correlation with residual nitrate 

distribution at this study site, with the best crop production areas concentrated in the mid- slopes and areas of 

water recharge. Areas in the field where water stands 

and ponds were found to be low in nitrogen probably 

due to leaching. In addition, a sandy ridge located next 

to the northwest corner of the field presented soil conditions with low nitrogen levels both in 2001 and 2002. 

The research field has various depressions, some low, 

and some perched, that cause drainage problems with 

stagnant water when rain accumulates. Furthermore, the 

sandy ridges in the field can cause rapid infiltration of 

water, which serves for the transport of mobile nutrients 

downward and laterally.

The r value of EC comparisons across years was 

consistent, but with a lower r value than other methods. 

This may be the reason for poor correlation between 

soil electrical conductivity (EC) and residual nitrate (28 

percent and 24 percent for 2001 and 2002, respectively). 

Electrical conductivity is known to be influenced by 

different factors, such as terrain curvature, soil texture, 

water content, and levels of salts in the soil 

(Franzen 1999). Soil texture at this site is widely 

variable, with textures ranging from fine-loamy 

to loamy sands (Franzen and others 2002). It is 

clear in this study that EC should not be used as 

a direct measure for residual nitrate-N. However, 

because of its interactions with so many other 

soil parameters, it is a good nitrate pattern indicator.

Order 1 soil survey presented the best correlation with residual nitrate in 2002 (table 1). 

However, we were not able to reproduce the 

same results for the 2001 dataset. Yield, crop 

reflectance, and topography, on the other hand, 

had very reproducible results between the two 

years. Analysis of infrared or multi-spectral image can 

reveal plant vigor due to nitrogen and, therefore, it 

may be deduced that it is one of the best candidates for 

consistent nitrogen prediction. Similarly, yield data was 

better correlated with residual nitrate when determining patterns for nitrogen delineation. However, neither 

crop reflectance nor yield data should be used as sole 

means of prediction (table 2). Yield maps may not be 

reliable enough to consistently identify nutrient zones 

in a single year (Franzen 1999, Strock 2000) because 

crop yields are so dependent on various factors, such 

as insects, disease, weed infestation, soluble salts, and 

cultural practices. Also nitrogen delineation zones that 

are based on a single satellite image might miss significant within-field variability. To avoid this problem, 

some studies (Bergerou and others 2002, Locke and 

others 2000) suggest averaging crop reflectance from 

multiple satellite images, taken at key stages of crop 

development.

Correlation of multiple data-layer comparisons of 

topography and EC, topography, EC and satellite image, topography, EC and yield, and topography, yield 

and satellite imagery with soil nitrate data is shown in 

table 2. A combination of topography, yield, and satellite 

imagery had the highest correlation values compared 

to other combinations, although all combinations were 

consistent between years and generally had higher values 

than their individual parts. Although one might expect 

EC to pull the correlations down compared to the better 

individual correlation of topography, yield, and satellite 

image, it did not. Generally r values were somewhat 

higher with combinations of zone delineation methods 

than topography alone. Perhaps one of the reasons that 

a combination of topography with EC did not hurt the 

correlation was that EC received about half the weight as 

topography and yield. Previous investigations with unweighted comparisons resulted in reduced correlations 

of multiple comparisons.

Table 1. Correlation of zone delineation method with base nitrate results 

from a 110 ft. systematic grid sampling, Valley City, ND, 2001 and 

2002.

Comparison – Method vs. nitrate sampling data Correlation ( r )

2001 topography 0.39

2002 topography 0.41

2001 yield 0.47

2002 yield 0.36

2001 EC 0.28

2002 EC 0.24

2001 Order 1 survey 0.24

2002 Order 1 survey 0.46

2001 Satellite image 0.41

2002 Satellite image 0.35

2001 Aerial photo 0.38

2002 Aerial photo 0.16

Table 2. Comparison of zone delineation method combination 

on correlation with sampling base nitrate data, Valley City, 

ND, 2001 and 2002.

Comparison Correlation ( r )

2001 Topography + EC 0.44

2002 Topography + EC 0.39

2001 Topo + EC + Satellite 0.49

2002 Topo + EC + Satellite 0.45

2001 Topo + EC + Yield 0.49

2002 Topo + EC + Yield 0.46

2001 Topo + Yield + Satellite 0.52

2002 Topo + Yield + Satellite 0.48

2001 All methods 0.54

2002 All methods 0.37
348 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The exception to higher correlation 

using multiple comparisons appears to 

be using all methods, which perhaps illustrates a danger in adopting a “shotgun” 

type of approach to delineation methods.

Summary

Six nitrogen zone delineation methods, 

topography, yield, Order 1 soil survey, 

aerial photography, satellite imagery and 

apparent soil EC, were compared with a 

sampling base of soil nitrate. All methods 

were significantly correlated with the base 

nitrate patterns. Zones for each delineation 

method were produced using a classified 

data approach. The highest, most consistent correlations 

were achieved with topography, satellite imagery, and 

yield mapping. Combinations of methods using weights 

based on relative correlation of each method individually 

resulted in generally higher correlations than any method 

used alone. Patterns for nitrogen zone delineation can be 

determined from various remotely sensed and field collected data. However, in order to build a sound model, 

each type of data has to be individually classified and 

analyzed in order to determine its contribution to the 

overall patterns relevant to nitrogen management. Our 

findings show that it is important to compile nitrogen 

zones from a variety of data to safeguard against data 

patterns that might change from one planting season 

to another. In addition, it is also important to examine 

trends over multiple years. For example in 2002 the best 

predictor of nitrogen was Order 1 soil survey, however, 

we were not able to reproduce the same result for 2001 

and when comparing multiple years, topography, yield, 

and NDVI from satellite images have been much more 

reproducible than the detailed soil survey. It is, therefore, 

important not only to have good predictors, but also 

consistent predictors that set a trend over several crop 

seasons. From this work, multiple layers of data together 

provide a combined consistency. When one method is 

not as highly correlated as expected, the combination 

with other layers still resulted in a highly correlated 

zone delineation.

Acknowledgments

This project is funded by USDA-CSREES IFAFS 

program grant number 00-52103-9652.

Figure 4. Zones of nitrogen delineation for 2001 and 2002, 

developed with multiple data layers.

Figure 5. Nitrogen distribution according to topography in 

2001 and 2002.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 349

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350 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Farmers in the Yucatan Peninsula have been used crop 

rotation systems for many hundred of years. More than 25 

percent of earth warming can be attributed to this type of 

agriculture. 17 millions of ha-1 are lost by deforestation 

actions in the world. Latin America contributes with 40 

percent of total area and Mexico is ranked fourth with 

700 thousand ha-1 (Bandy, et. al., 1994). Yucatan state 

rendered 20 percent to basic crops under slash and burn 

system (SAGARPA 2001).

Therefore this paper can be regard as a contribution to 

improve the knowledge about fallow systems in Yucatan 

state and the possibility to stay in the same area growing maize.

Methodology

The study was conducted at the field station “Uxmal” 

(latitude 20o 25’ N, longitude 89o 46’ W ) belonging at the 

National Institute on Forestry, Agriculture and Animal 

Husbandry Research (INIFAP) located in the Yucatan 

State in the southeast of Mexico. The soil of the study 

area was a Luvisol rodic (FAO system), and experimental 

area is 50 m above sea level. Annual rainfall average is 

900 mm and mean temperature is about 26 o C. Rainy 

season starts in June and lasts until the end of October a 

period of about five months.

The treatments were replicated four times in the study 

that had a randomized block, split plot design using 

plots of 12 X 26 m. Treatments using Mucuna pruriens, 

Leucaena leucocephala, spontaneous weeds and continuous cropping were assigned to the main plots (table 1).

Sub plots were sown with maize and fertilized with 

treatments 20-50-0, 40-100-0 of nitrogen, phosphorus 

and potassium respectively also a control plot without 

fertilizer was included.

In 1996 experimental area was slash and burned in 

order to start the experiment for two and four years 

treatments regarding both as zero year. Mucuna pruriens

was sown at 1m between rows and plants and Leucaena 

Contributions to Improve Fallow System in Yucatan 

State Mexico

Gabriel Uribe Valle, M.C., Investigador INIFAP-CIR-Sureste C.E Uxmal. Apdo .Post # 50 

Unidad administrativa # 4. Mérida Yucatán, México

Juan Jiménez-Osornio, Ph D. Jefe Del Departamento De Manejo Y Conservación De 

Recursos Naturales Tropicales. Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia. Universidad 

Autónoma de Yucatán. Apdo. Post. #28 Cordemx 97110. Mérida Yucatán, México

Roberto Dzib Echeverría, M.C. Investigador INIFAP-CIR-Sureste C.E Uxmal. Apdo .Post # 50 

Unidad administrativa # 4. Mérida Yucatán. México

Abstract—More than 25 percent of earth warming can be attributes to deforestation 

practices such as crop rotations performed in southeast part of Mexico. In the Yucatan 

peninsula 20 percent of staple foods such as maize and beans are produced under slash 

and burn system. It has been practiced for many centuries by native Mayans however 

population pressure and food scarcity made short fallow periods. Thus soil fertility decline and farmers used to changed to new fertile areas slashing and burning about 250 

thousand per year. Natural degradation is a problem in this region therefore a project 

to contribute to fallow system was developed to try to assure grain production in the 

same deforested land for more years than the farmers do.

A field study was conducted in the field station “Uxmal” belonging to the National 

Institute on Forestry, Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Research on a Luvisol rodic

soil in the state of Yucatan. From 1996 to 2003 two legumes, spontaneous weeds, and 

continuous cropping using fertilizer treatments were established. It was concluded that 

is possible to return to same area in short periods using at least two years, also produce 

maize continuously in this soils for more than three years. Variations on yields are due 

to rainfall than soil fertility conditions.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 351

leucocephala at 1m between plants and 2 m between 

rows. Sowing distance of maize was 1m between rows 

and 50 cm between plants leaving two by hole.

Soil samples were taken at a depth of 30 cm before and 

after burn the experimental area. Analysis for pH, OM, 

P, K, Ca Mg, Fe, Zn, Cu and Mn were done following 

the usual methods. Soil moisture disturbed samples were 

collected weakly all over the years making determinations by the gravimetric method. Annual rainfall was 

also registered from a meteorological station located at 

field station from sowing to harvest maize. From 2001 

to 2003 spontaneous weeds were measured taking the 

population density. Legumes biomass was also registered 

after fallow period in 2000 year using a squared frame 

of 0.5 X0.5m (10 samples per plot) and no analysis of 

variance was performed for these data. Maize yield 

was evaluated all the years. In 2002 year a hurricane 

affected the yield of maize and the original condition 

of the experiment. Therefore analysis of variance was 

not performed for some data. Analysis of variance was 

performed for population density of spontaneous weeds, 

legumes contribution to yield of maize and grain yield of 

maize under fertilizer treatments. Mean separation was 

made using L.S.D test.

Results and Discussion

Results of chemical characterization are shown in 

table 2. According to data without burn organic matter 

and phosphorus are at medium level and very high for 

potassium and calcium pH is slightly alkaline. With burn 

organic matter is high as well as phosphorus, potassium, 

calcium and the pH.

It thus appears that low CEC can regard as limiting 

factor to yield of maize. Similar results of organic matter content increase, agreed these data (Perez, 1975; 

Navarrete, 1977; Sanchez y Salinas, 1981; Uribe, 1982; 

Nair. 1984).

Table 1. Treatments description of improved fallow and growing seasons.

Years

Treatments 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Leucaena 2 years fallow CC CC MC F F CC CC CC

Leucaena 4 years fallow MC F F F F CC CC CC

Mucuna 2 years CC CC MC F F CC CC CC

Mucuna 4 years MC F F F F CC CC CC

Spontaneous weeds. 2 years CC CC MC F F CC CC CC

Spontaneous weeds. 4 years MC F F F F CC CC CC

Continuous cropping(maize) C C CC CC CC CC CC CC CC

C C = continuous cropping, M C= Maize cropping and legume sowing, F = Fallow

Table 2. Soil analysis content before and after burn experimental 

area. INIFAP.2003.

Soil management

Soil parameter Before burn After burn

Organic mater (%) 2.96 3.37

Phosphorus ppm 24.28 26.25

Potassium ppm 306.78 348.93

Magnesium ppm 465.36 461.43

Calcium ppm 2446.07 2492.86

pH 7.09 7.39

CEC meq/100 gr 17.55 17.26

Soil moisture content data with Mucuna pruriens

were slightly higher than those registered with Leucaena 

leucocephala mainly in dry season due to organic matter contribution which keeps the soil moisture content 

(Campos and others 1983; Ramirez and others 2001) 

(table 3).

No significant differences were found for plant population of spontaneous weeds (table 4). Mucuna pruriens

had a slightly depressive effect on spontaneous weed 

population compared to Leucaena leucocephala in 2001 

year. In 2002 year spontaneous weed were damage by 

hurricane. The recover started in 2003 year without a 

clear tendency among treatments, may be due to previous 

damage above cited.

Even though no significant differences were found 

with the use of legumes a tendency to improve the yield 

of maize was observed with Leucaena leucocephala in 

both 2001 and 2203 years (table 5). Quantity of biomass 

contribution and a fast decomposition to organic matter 

can be regard as important factors that show the tendency 

observed.

Mucuna pruriens contribution of biomass was better 

than the other treatments in both 2 and 4 fallow years due 

to a mulch of leaves left in the soil without decomposition (table 6). Similar results are reported by Ramirez 

and others (2001) in Quintana-Roo state in the same 

type of soil (Luvisol rodic). On the other hand Leucaena 
352 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

leucocephala seems to reduce biomass in both treatments, but the size of leaves and a fast decomposition is 

given lees biomass compared to other treatments.

Fertilizer treatments applied to maize are shown in 

table 7. No significant differences were found in 1996, 

1997 and 2001 years for grain yield, however in 1998 

to 2003 years significant differences shows that the best 

treatment was 40-100-0 of nitrogen, phosphorus and 

potassium respectively. For rain fed conditions distribution of rainfall is more important than quantity due 

to critical stages such as blooming and grain filling. In 

figure 1, rainfall is about 500 to 800 mm as an average 

in eighth years data. More than 800 mm occurred only in 

two years (1999 and 2001) except hurricane year. Yield 

variations among years depend on the quantity and proper 

distribution of the rainfall.

Conclusions

Organic matter content, phosphorus, potassium, 

calcium, and the pH increases with burn compared to 

no burn.

Mucuna pruriens had a slightly depress effect on spontaneous weeds compared to Leucaena leucocephala.

Table 6. Biomass quantity yielded by treatments after fallow. 

INIFAP 2003.

Biomass

Treatments (g/0.25 m2

)

Leucaena leucocephala 2 years 142.1

Leucaena leucocephala 4 años 126.7

Mucuna pruriens 2 years 253.1

Mucuna pruriens 4 years 205.4

Spontaneous weeds 2 years 180.6

Spontaneous weeds 4 years 163.4

Continuous cropping (maiz) 194.2

Table 3. Soil moisture content in improved fallow system for two seasons. INIFAP 

2003.

Dry season Wet season

Treatments S.M % S.M % Annual average

Leucaena leucocephala 2 years 22.88 31.33 27.10

Leucaena leucocephala 4 años 22.32 30.83 26.57

Mucuna pruriens 2 years 23.81 32.05 27.93

Mucuna pruriens 4 years 24.67 31.97 28.32

Spontaneous weeds 2 years 23.03 31.73 27.38

Spontaneous weeds 4 years 23.68 31.45 27.56

Continuous cropping(maiz) 21.83 31.37 26.60

Average 23.17 31.53

S.M% = Soil Moisture %

Table 4. Plant population density of spontaneous weeds. INIFAP 2003.

Years/thousands/plants/ha

Treatments 01 02 03 Average

Leucaena leucocephala 2 years 2101 666 1373 1380

Leucaena leucocephala 4 años 2191 860 2100 1717

Mucuna pruriens 2 years 2083 730 1820 1544

Mucuna pruriens 4 years 2014 630 2056 1567

Spontaneous weeds 2 years 2103 711 1353 1389

Spontaneous weeds 4 years 2032 593 930 1185

Continuous cropping (maiz) 1914 743 1306 1321

Table 5. Treatments contribution to grain yield of maize after 

fallow. INIFAP 2003.

Years /t/ha

Treatments 2001 2002 2003

Leucaena leucocephala 2 years 1.98 0.26 2.36

Leucaena leucocephala 4 años 1.97 0.14 2.08

Mucuna pruriens 2 years 1.83 0.33 1.52

Mucuna pruriens 4 years 1.91 0.17 1.67

Spontaneous weeds 2 years 1.85 0.22 1.80

Spontaneous weeds 4 years 1.95 0.18 2.15

Continuous cropping (maize) 1.84 0.14 2.06
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 353

There are no clear contribution to yield of maize 

from legumes, but Leucaena leucocephala shows a 

tendency.

Mucuna pruriens biomass contribution was better than 

Leucaena leucocephala and spontaneous weeds.

Fertilizer response started at third year of continuous 

cropping with maize achieving high yield of grain with 

the treatment 40-100-0 of nitrogen, phosphorus, and 

potassium respectively.

Is possible to return to same area in short periods using at least two years also produce maize continuously 

in this soils for more than three years.

Conservation of natural resources can be enhanced 

using legumes to extend periods of crop and preserving 

forestry and flora for another purposes

References

Bandy, D; Garrity, D. P y Sanchez, P. 1994. El problema 

mundial de la agricultura de tala y quema. Agroforestería 

en las Américas. Julio-Septiembre. Año 1 N 3 pp 14-20.

Campos de J. S., G.M. Anaya y M.M. Martinez. 1983. Efecto 

de la captación de lluvia, estiércol y rastrojo sobre la 

Figure 1. Annual rainfall from sowing to harvest grain maize. 

INIFAP (2003).

Table 7. Grain yield of maize under fertilizer treatments. INIFAP 2003.

Years/ t/ha

Fertilizer treatments 1996* 1997* 1998 1999 2000 2001* 2002 2003 Average

0-0-0 0.83 2.47 2.17b 2.08b 1.75b 1.89 0.11 1.22c 1.80

20-50-0 0.94 2.72 2.47b 2.89a 2.05a 1.75 0.17 2.32b 2.16

40-100-0 1.26 3.28 2.91a 2.84a 2.30a 1.87 0.15 2.63a 2.44

L.S.D - - 0..330 0.304 0.266 - - 0.231

Any two means having a common letter are not significantly different at 5 % of level of significance. LSD Test

* No significant

humedad del suelo y producción de la asociación maiz-frijol. Agrociencia No 52. pp45-64. C.P Chapingo. México.

Nair,P.K.R.1984. Soil productivity aspects of agroforestry. 

ICRAF. Nairobi. Kenya.

Navarrete, O.R. 1977. Efecto de los niveles de fertilización 

nitrogenada, fosfórica y densidad de población de maíz 

xnucnaal blanco en el sistema de producción roza-tumbaquema en el estado de Yucatán. C.E. Uxmal. Informe anual 

de labores. (Inédito)

Pérez Z.O. 1975. Efecto de los niveles de fertilización nitrogenada fosfórica y potásica en maíz xnucnaal blanco en el 

sistema de producción roza-tumba-quema en el estado de 

Yucatán. C.E Uxmal. Informe anual de albores (Inédito).

Ramírez, S.J.H., B.A Gutierrez y R.E. Sosa. 2001. Mucuna 

y canavalia leguminosas de cobertura en la producción 

de maíz. Folleto técnico. SAGARPA. INIFAP. CIRSURESTE.38 p.

SAGARPA. 2001. Servicio de información y estadística 

agroalimentaria y pesquera.

Sánchez, P.A y J.G Salinas. 1981. Low-input technology for 

managing oxisols and ultisols in tropical America. Advances 

in Agronomy. 34: 279-406

Uribe, V.G. 1982. Evaluación de factores controlables de la producción que afectan el rendimiento de maíz-ib (Phaseolus 

lunatus) calabaza en condiciones de roza-tumba-quema 

en suelos chich-luum (Rendolls) del oriente del estado de 

Yucatán. Tesis: Ing. Agr. Colegio Superior de Agricultura 

Tropical. Tabasco. México.
354 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The study of historical variability of atmospheric circulatory patterns is basic to understand the current and 

future climatic changes and their effect on social and 

economical stability. The climate of northern Mexico is 

characterized by a seasonal precipitation regime and a 

strong monsoon component (Pyke 1972; Douglas and 

others 1993; Higgins and others 1999) with a pronounced 

maximum (> 70 percent) of annual rainfall in the warm 

season (May–October), and less than 30 percent on the 

rest of the year (Mosiño and Garcia 1974).

Precipitation along northern Mexico varies on time 

scales ranging from seasonal to decades (Magaña and 

others 1999). Water supply is a major constraint on 

development and future land use practices in northern 

Mexico. However, the lack of available data about 

long-term trends and variability of water yields is a 

significant limitation to planning the appropriate and 

future use of these resources. Water resource planning 

can greatly benefit from data on the range and variability 

of precipitation and streamflow that paleoclimatic studies 

can potentially provide. Therefore, the objective of this 

study was to examine the long-term hydroclimatic behavior over several hundred years by using tree-rings as 

a proxy data in developing precipitation reconstructions 

and analyzing the influence of circulatory patterns for 

northern Mexico. These data would allow the detection 

of low frequency periodicities that could be beneficial 

for the proper management of the limited water resources 

in this region.

In this study long-term Winter-Spring precipitations 

reconstructions for the states of Chihuahua, Durango, 

Coahuila, and Nuevo Leon were developed from the early 

wood chronologies of Douglas-fir tree rings collected at 

several locations in the Sierras Madre Occidental and 

Historic Hydroclimatic Variability in Northern Mexico

José Villanueva-Diaz, dendrochronologist, INIFAP CENID – RASPA; Km 6.5 Margen 

Derecha del Canal Sacramento, Gómez Palacio, Durango, Mexico

J. Cerano-Paredes, D.W. Stahle, B. H. Luckman, M.D. Therrell, M.K. Cleaveland, and 

G. Gutierrez-Garcia

Abstract—The understanding of historic hydroclimatic variability is basic to plan for a 

proper management of limited water resources in northern Mexico. The objective of this 

study was to develop a network of tree-ring chronologies for climate reconstruction and 

to analyze the influence of circulatory patterns, such as ENSO. Climatic sensitive treering chronologies were developed in mountain ranges of the Sierras Madre Oriental and 

Occidental. A grid of new Douglas-fir chronologies were developed and winter-spring 

precipitation reconstructions were produced for northwest Chihuahua, northwestern 

Durango, southern Nuevo Leon, and southeastern Coahuila. The seasonal winter-spring 

precipitation reconstructions extended 530 years (1472–2002) for Chihuahua, 228 

year (1765–1993) for Durango, 602 years (1400–2002) for Nuevo Leon, and 342 years 

(1659–2001) for Coahuila. Some of the low frequency events were specific for each 

reconstruction, but low frequency events (decadal resolution) were present in most of the 

reconstructions; specific cases are the droughts of the 1810s, 1860s, 1870s, and 1950s, 

and the wet periods of the 1820s, 1830s, and 1890s.Trends in dry or wet periods were 

disrupted by above or below normal precipitation affected by the ENSO phenomena, 

especially in the winter–spring period when this circulatory pattern produced in times 

abundant rains in northern Mexico. However, the ENSO influence on Winter-Spring 

precipitation varied with time. Convective rains and precipitation from cyclones formed 

in the Gulf of Mexico may explain some of the hydrological variability detected in the 

southern Nuevo Leon and the southwestern Coahuila precipitation reconstructions. 

However, these preliminary results indicates that winter-spring hydroclimate variability 

in northern Mexico is influenced by a range of circulatory patterns, and a greater grid 

of tree-ring chronologies should be developed to explain in detail the involved climatic 

factors as well as to reconstruct Summer precipitation, that makes up more than 70 

percent of the total annual precipitation.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 355

Oriental. These reconstructions are then analyzed and 

linked to large scale climatic forcing. The presence of 

dry and wet episodes on the reconstructions is validated 

with historical documents (when available) as a way 

to showing human responses to climatic extremes. It 

would be important to capitalize this information for a 

proper management of water resources on this extent 

dry region.

Methodology

Tree Ring Chronologies

In an attempt to extend existing short hydrological 

records tree-ring chronologies were developed from 

increment cores and cross sections taken mostly from 

Douglas-fir trees (Pseudotsuga menziesii) growing in 

mixed conifer stands along the Sierras Madre Occidental 

and Oriental in the states of Chihuahua, Durango, 

Coahuila, and Nuevo Leon. The sampled trees were 

selected from relatively undisturbed stands in sites classified as with low productivity to maximize the climatic 

signal. The cores were mounted, sanded and crossdated 

using standard procedures (Stokes and Smiley 1968) and 

tree-ring series were measured with a VELMEX “TA” 

stage micrometer at 0.001 mm resolution. Crossdating 

and measurement quality were verified with COFECHA, 

(Holmes 1983, Grissino-Mayer 2001). New tree-ring 

chronologies of earlywood (EW), latewood (LW) and 

total ring width (RW) were developed for new Douglasfir sites and combined with recent chronologies from the 

region (fig. 1).

Ring-width measurements were standardized with 

ARSTAN (Cook 1987). All series were initially detrended either with a negative exponential curve or a straight 

line with a negative slope and secondly with a smoothing 

spline of 50 percent wavelength (Cook and Peters 1981). 

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was performed on 

Figure 1. Geographical distribution 

of new tree-ring chronologies 

recently developed in northern 

Mexico.
356 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

the grid of available chronologies to identify orthogonal 

modes of tree growth (Fritts 1976).

The relationships between climate and tree-growth 

were investigated by correlation and response-function 

analysis. A decadal smoothing spline was fitted to the 

reconstructed series to emphasize the decadal variance 

(Cook and Peters 1981). When possible, reconstructed 

drought periods were validated with historical documentation.

Climate Records

Meteorological information was obtained from the 

climatic data base ERIC II (IMTA 1977); the National 

Climatic Data Center’s Global Historical Climatology 

Network (GHNC), and from individual meteorological stations of the Comision Nacional del Agua (2002). 

Missing data were estimated by Paulhus and Kohler’s 

method (1952), and double-mass analysis (Kohler 1949) 

was used to test homogeneity between stations.

Precipitation Reconstructions

Historical cool season precipitation reconstructions 

were developed for the states of Chihuahua, Durango, 

Coahuila, and Nuevo Leon. Climatic information from 

the 4532 grid (GHCN) was related to the EW Douglas-fir 

chronologies from Chihuahua. Likewise, the Guanaceví 

meteorological station was associated to the first principal 

component values of a network of early wood chronologies for Durango (EW PC1). Douglas-fir chronologies 

from southern Nuevo Leon were associated to the mean 

climatic conditions from several meteorological stations 

located in the states of Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas, and 

the meteorological station Saltillo was associated to the 

network of early wood chronologies from the Sierra de 

Arteaga, Coahuila.

Results and Discussion

Precipitation Reconstruction for 

Northeastern Chihuahua

It was found a significant correlation between the EW 

chronology from Bisaloachi, Chihuahua and the seasonal 

precipitation (October–May) for the 4532 climatic grid 

(fig. 2). The regression estimates were tested against 

independent climatic data with a variety of statistical 

measures (Fritts 1991). The climatic data was most 

reliable for the period 1950 to 1990. Therefore, the treering data was regressed from the 1950 to 1990, 1950 to 

1969, and 1970 to 1990 periods against the corresponding climatic data. Because statistical tests validated the 

two subperiods and the regression coefficients did not 

differ significantly (results not shown), the 1950–1990 

regression relationship was used to reconstruct winterspring precipitation. In general terms, the earlywood 

width explained more than 50 percent of the precipitation variance.

The model used for reconstruction was:

Ỹt = -111.7637 + 290.693Xt

Where Ỹt is the estimated total October–May precipitation (mm) and Xt is the Bisaloachi EW chronology 

indices.

The Winter–Spring (October–May) precipitation 

reconstruction, period 1472 to 2002 shows the presence 

of frequent droughts affecting northwestern Chihuahua 

along 530 years of the reconstruction (fig. 3).

The worst 20th century drought occurred in the 1950s 

and 1960s. Similar drought episodes were detected in 

climatic reconstructions for Durango by Cleaveland and 

others (2003), Gonzalez-Elizondo (2003), and partially 

coinciding with a severe drought in Texas (Griffith and 

Ainsworth, 1981). A more intense drought was observed 

in the XVIII century, period 1767 to 1778, also detected 

in a precipitation reconstruction for northern Sonora 

(Villanueva and McPherson 1999). The drought of the 

1550 to 1570 has been reported as one of the most severe 

for northern Mexico in the last 600 years (Cleaveland 

and others 2003), although this drought was of lower 

length and intense on this reconstruction. One shorter 

severe drought was observed between 1488 and 1496, 

apparently affecting other areas of the Sierra Madre 

Occidental (Cleaveland and others 2003). This seasonal 

Figure 2. Location of the climatic grid 4532, developed by 

the National Climatic Data Center ́s Global Historical 

Climatology Network (GHCN).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 357

precipitation reconstruction provides a good estimation of 

the hydroclimatic variability of northwestern Chihuahua 

and eastern Sonora where the climatic quadrant 4532 

is located, and verifies a shorter seasonal precipitation 

reconstruction (1647 to 1992) previously developed for 

the state of Chihuahua (Diaz-Castro and others 2002).

Precipitation Reconstruction for the 

Upper Nazas Watershed, Durango

Tree-ring chronologies were developed in the Nazas 

watershed and compared to climatological stations scattered on this basin (fig. 4).

The regression analysis between the first principal component of 9 Douglas-fir chronologies and the 

Winter–Spring precipitation (November–May) for 

Guanacevi climatic station calibrated 73 percent and 57 

percent in the two subperiods (1941 to 1966, 1967 to 

1993, respectively) and 63.7 percent over the full period 

(1941 to 1993). The reconstruction models pass all the 

statistical tests of accuracy.

Figure 3. Seasonal Winter-Spring precipitation reconstruction 

(October–May), period 1472 to 2002, for western Chihuahua 

and eastern Sonora (climatic grid 4532). The mean 

precipitation for the reconstructed period was 143.2 

mm (solid line) with a standard deviation of 52.4 mm. A 

smoothing spline has been fitted to the reconstruction to 

emphasize long-term droughts for the periods 1488-1496, 

1552-1573, 1611-1626, 1767-1778, 1882-1887, 1945-1960, 

1993-2002. Wet episodes were observed in the periods 

1477-1486, 1590-1598, 1649-1661, 1736-1750, 1820-1824, 

1873-1878, 1940-1944, and 1972-1979.

Figure 4. Distribution of tree-ring chronologies, climatic stations, and important settlements in the Nazas 

watershed, Durango, Mexico.
358 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The precipitation reconstruction covers the period from 

1765 to 1993, the common period of all chronologies. 

The reconstruction is conservative and underestimates 

precipitation in isolated years of high precipitation, but 

provides the high and some medium frequency precipitation variability and is a good indication of past dry 

periods at decadal scales (fig. 5).

Similar to the Chihuahua reconstruction, this reconstruction shows a drought in the 20th century occurred 

between 1950 and 1957 with a mean winter-spring 

precipitation of 65.1 mm, 25 percent below the average 

of the reconstruction (86.5 mm). The 1950s drought 

has been identified by Cleaveland and others (2003) for 

Durango and in several regions across Mexico (Therrell 

and others 2002) and the southwestern United States 

(Cook and others 1999). Florescano (1980) identified the 

1950, 1951, and 1956 years as some of the most extreme 

droughts for northern Mexico. Based on the precipitation reconstruction there are several drought episodes of 

similar or greater intensity to those in the 20th century. 

In the drought of the 1890’s (1880 to 1896) and 1900’s 

(1907 to 1910) precipitation was, respectively, 15 and 

35 percent lower than the mean. Although the 1890’s 

drought was not as severe as some of the 20th century 

droughts, it lasted almost two decades and was followed 

by a short intense drought. Documentary records suggest 

it led to a drastic reduction in grain production in northern 

Mexico (Garcia-Acosta 1993), reduced the water volume 

for irrigation on the Comarca Lagunera (Teran-Lira 2000) 

and may have contributed to the unrest that triggered 

“The Mexican Revolution” that started in 1910 (EscobarOhmstede 1997). The reconstructed record suggests that 

1857 to 1872 was one of the longest droughts with an 

average of 71.2 mm (18 percent below the reconstructed 

mean value). Notwithstanding the length of this drought, 

few historical documents talk about this difficult period 

when food shortages and famine were common in the 

region, although Garcia-Acosta (1993) inferred a severe 

drought in Durango in 1867 based on food prices. An 

additional drought episode was reconstructed from 1797 

to1811. The linkage between this and previous droughts, 

shortage of food, famine, and presence of pests produced 

social discontent that fuelled the movement for independence known as “The Independence War of Mexico” 

(Garcia-Acosta 1993).

Several of the wetter intervals in this reconstruction have also been identified in adjacent regions and 

extended across much of the western USA (Fye and 

others 2003).

Precipitation Reconstruction for 

Saltillo, Coahuila

A seasonal Winter–Spring (January–June) precipitation reconstruction was developed for Saltillo, Coahuila 

(fig. 6). In producing this reconstruction, five Douglas-fir 

earlywood chronologies developed from mixed-conifer 

stands along the Sierra de Artega, Coahuila were involved 

(e.g. La Viga, El Coahuilon, Los Pilares, El Tarillal, 

and El Morro). The average chronology from La Viga, 

El Coahuilon, and Los Pilares resulted to be more significantly correlated with the total seasonal precipitation 

January–June for the meteorological station Saltillo. 

Therefore, a bivariate regression model explaining more 

than 60 percent of the precipitation variance was built 

to reconstruct a seasonal precipitation for this region 

(fig. 7). The reconstruction of 342 years (1659–2001) 

extends 123 years back in time a previous precipitation 

reconstruction based exclusively in one site chronology 

produced by Pohl and others (2003) for this region.

Similar to the previous reconstructions, droughts 

were common along the 20th century, especially for the 

1950s and 1960s. In the 19th century some of the severe 

droughts detected on this reconstruction took place in 

the 1890s, 1860s, and 1810s. Additional droughts were 

detected for the period 1720 to 1740, 1690s, and 1670s. 

Many of this droughts produced agricultural crisis and 

limited food availability, especially the ones observed at 

the end of the XVIII and XIX centuries (Cuellar-Valdéz 

1979; García-Hernández 1997). The economical and 

social effects of droughts are increasing in intensity, 

extension, and duration for this region due in part to 

Figure 5. Reconstructed Winter–Spring 

precipitation (November–May) from 

1765 to 1993 for the upper Nazas 

watershed, Durango, Mexico. A decadal 

smoothing spline fitted to the annual data 

emphasizes low frequency variance in 

the reconstruction.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 359

Figure 6. Geographical 

d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e 

earlywood Douglas-fir 

chronologies developed 

from collections located 

in the Sierra de Arteaga, 

Coahuila. Some of these 

tree-ring chronologies 

were used to develop a 

cool season precipitation 

reconstruction for the 

region.

Figure 7. Seasonal Winter-Spring precipitation reconstruction 

(January – June), period 1659 – 200 for Saltillo, Coahuila. 

A smoothing spline has been fitted to the reconstruction to 

emphasize long-term droughts like the ones in the 1950s, 

1870s, 1790s, 1690s, and 1670s.

the higher water demand for industrial, agricultural, 

and different human uses. The establishment of human 

settlements in places prone to droughts is exacerbating 

the effect of natural climate variability not only on this 

region but all over Mexico.

Precipitation Reconstruction for 

Central and Southern Nuevo Leon

One of the longest precipitation reconstructions for 

northeastern Mexico is the one derived from an earlywood Douglas-fir chronology located in the site Peña 

Nevada, Nuevo Leon. This chronology of 602 

years length was significantly correlated with the 

seasonal Winter–Spring (December–April) precipitation for a grid of climatic stations located in 

central, southern and western Tamaulipas covering 

the period 1964 to 1997 (fig. 8). The calibration 

and verification procedures were statistically significant. A bivariate linear equation considering 

the total length of instrumental data indicated that 

the tree-ring chronology is explaining close to 50 

percent of the seasonal variability of precipitation 

for this area.

The seasonal precipitation reconstruction (December–

April) shows the presence of recurrent droughts affecting 

this region along the period of 1402 to 2002 (602 years) 

(fig. 9). On the 20th century the most significant drought 

episodes took place in the periods 1968 to 1975 and 

1952 to 1956. Additional low ware availability was also 

detected on the periods 1857 to 1868, 1785 to 1790, 

1738 to 1743, 1559 to 1590, 1526 to 1536, and a severe 

drought between 1459 and 1467. Some of the droughts 

observed in this reconstruction have been documented 

by Florescano (1980), especially the ones occurred in 

the 1950s and 1860s, similarly present in other precipitation reconstructions for northern Mexico. The lack of 

historical documents for this region has prevented a 

proper verification of the reconstructed data before the 

1850s. However, is amazing how droughts affecting other 

regions of Mexico were also observed in this reconstruction. A specific case is the severe drought of the 1450s and 
360 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

1460s in the Valley of Mexico that produced shortage of 

food and drinking water for the Aztec civilization.

A more detailed historical analysis would be important 

to support hydroclimatic studies in this region that has a 

great potential in socio-economical terms for Mexico.

ENSO Teleconnection to the 

Northern Mexico Precipitation 

Reconstructions

The cool season precipitation in northern 

Mexico and southwestern United States is 

strongly linked with the Southern Oscilation 

Indices (Ropelewski and Harper 1989; Stahle 

and others 1998, Magaña and others 1999). This 

relationship is clearly recorded in the tree rings 

of Douglas-fir growing in the Sierras Madre 

Oriental and Occidental.

The ENSO extra-tropical teleconnection in 

northern Mexico is quite strong, but the strength 

and spatial extent varies over time (Cleaveland 

and others 2003). The lack of stability is illustrated with the variability of correlation with the 

Tropical Rainfall Index (TRI) an estimate of the 

ENSO variability using rainfall anomalies in the 

central Pacific (Wright 1979). This statement 

is validated when comparing the TRI and the 

precipitation reconstruction for Chihuahua for 

the 1896 to 1995 period. Correlations in successive 20-year periods varied in a range of 0.2 to 0.69. 

Similar correlations values were found for the Durango 

reconstruction (Cleaveland and others 2003).

The relationship between the TRI and the Saltillo 

reconstruction was highly variable and the correlations 

ranged from 0.24 to 0.65. The highest correlation value of 0.65 was found before 1915 

and the lowest (r = 0.24) after this subperiod 

(fig. 10).

A changing relationship was found 

between the TRI and the Nuevo Leon precipitation reconstruction. The correlation values 

were higher before 1900 and decreased along 

the 20th century.

The response of the northern Mexico 

precipitation to ENSO forcing appears to be 

strongest during warm ENSO events (El Niño), based 

on the correlation analysis with the TRI (Cleaveland and 

others 2003). On the other hand, the extended and similar 

drought episodes recorded in most of the precipitation reconstructions apparently were influenced by cold ENSO 

events (La Niña). However, other atmospheric circulatory 

patterns may have influenced the observed precipitation 

variability, especially for those reconstructions located 

in northeastern Mexico (Saltillo, Nuevo Leon), where 

cyclones, tropical storms, and other atmospheric patterns 

may influence much of the winter and summer precipitation which source of water is mostly the Gulf of Mexico 

(Magaña and others 1999).

Figure 8. Geographical distribution of climatic stations (1. 

Allende, 2. Iturbide, 3. Casillas, 4. Ciénega del Toro, 

5. Cerralvo, and 6. UValles) involved in a precipitation 

reconstruction for Nuevo Leon and Tamaulipas.

Figure 9. Seasonal Winter–Spring (December–April) 

precipitation reconstruction, period 1400–2002 for southern 

Nuevo Leon and eastern Tamaulipas. The smoothing spline 

emphasizes low frequency events. Drought episodes were 

observed in the periods 1439 to 1455, 1526 to 1536, 1559 

to 1590, 1738 to 1743, 1857 to 1868, 1915 to 1922, and 

1968 to 1975.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 361

Table 1. Correlation coefficient values for several winter-spring precipitation reconstructions for a common period (1782 to 1992). All 

correlation values were significant (p< 0.001) but the highest values were obtained when comparing reconstructions developed for a 

particular mountain range, which is an indication of the influence of different atmospheric circulatory patterns in tree growth.

Winter –Spring precipitation Ppt Oct-May Ppt Nov – April, Ppt Nov - March Ppt Jan – June Ppt Dec – April

reconstructions in Bisaloachi, Chihuahua (Diaz and Durango, (Cleaveland Saltillo, (Pohl and Peña Nevada, 

norhtern Mexico Chihuahua1 others 2002)1 and others 2003)1 others 2003)2 N.L.2

Ppt Oct–May, Bisaloachi, 1.0

Chihuahua1

Ppt Nov–April, Chihuahua 0.79 1.0

(Diaz and others 2002)1

Ppt Nov–March, Durango, 0.65 0.78 1.0

(Cleaveland and others 2003)1

Ppt Jan–June, Saltillo, (Pohl 0.38 0.43 0.56 1.0

and others 2003)2

Ppt Dec–April, Peña Nevada, 0.33 0.37 0.51 0.49 1.0

N.L2

1 Precipitation reconstructions for the Sierra Madre Occidental.

2 Precipitation reconstructions for the Sierra Madre Oriental.

Figure 10. Correlation ( r ) of the Winter–Spring (January–June) 

Tropical Rainfall Index with reconstructed Saltillo January–

June precipitation in 20-year periods, a demonstration of the 

long-term instability of the Pacific equatorial teleconnection 

with northeastern Mexico climate.

Historical Climatic Low Frequency 

Trends Detected on the Precipitation 

Reconstructions

The presence of low frequency events were significantly correlated (p <0.05) for the common period of 

the reconstructions (1782 to 1992), especially on those 

reconstructions developed for a specific mountain range.

Precipitations reconstructions along the Sierra Madre 

Occidental indicated high and significant correlations (r 

= 0.08, p< 0.01). Likewise, lower correlation coefficients 

(p> 0.05) were found when precipitation reconstructions 

were compared between mountain ranges 

(table 1). This finding has significant implications to analyze the influence of climatic 

systems in a particular mountain range and 

indicates that the hydroclimate variability in 

northern Mexico is probably being influenced 

by different circulatory patterns or similar 

atmospheric phenomena but modulated by 

changing physiographic conditions that characterizes the Sierras Madre Occidental and 

Oriental, located along the western and eastern 

sides of northern Mexico, respectively.

Notwithstanding the influence of well 

defined atmospheric circulatory patterns 

affecting a particular mountain range is surprising the presence of generalized dry or 

wet episodes that affected extensive areas of 

Mexico. The droughts of the 1810s, 1860s, 1870s, and 

1950s were detected in all of the reconstructions (fig. 11). 

These droughts produced shortages of food, fires, and 

epidemic outbreaks (Fulé and Covington 1999; AcuñaSoto and others 2002). The presence of these general 

events indicates that atmospheric circulatory patterns 

of greater extent such as ENSO and the Southwestern 

Monsoon System may be causing this climatic behavior. 

Therefore, they should be considered and analyzed in a 

greater detail for a better understanding of climate in the 

Republic of Mexico.

Conclusions

The cool season precipitation reconstructions developed for several places of northern Mexico indicated 

droughts of greater intensity and extent than those witnessed along the 20th century. These reconstructions 
362 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

are well correlated with the ENSO indices and offer 

an excellent opportunity to further explore the history 

and variability of the Southern Oscillation. All reconstructions showed strong and variable in times seasonal 

correlations to the Tropical Rainfall Index indicating 

the necessity to explore in detail the ENSO circulatory pattern that explains much of the great scale cool 

season hydroclimatic variability in central and northern 

Mexico.

The expanding network of tree-ring chronologies now 

available for several regions of Mexico and composed by 

different species will play in a short future an important 

role in reconstructing Mexico`s late Holocene paleoclimate variability.

Additional sensitive baldcypress (Taxodium mucronatum) chronologies over a thousand years have 

been developed in the last few months for the central 

region and some shorter for northern Mexico. These 

chronologies have the potential to provide seasonal 

rainfall reconstructions and may help to explain the 

warm season precipitation variability that accounts for 

more than 70 percent of the annual total precipitation for 

central and northern Mexico, and that has been linked to 

the Southwestern Monsoon System. Summer rainfall is of 

main importance for agriculture, grassland productivity, 

ground water recharge, etc, and understanding its historic 

variability may help to plan for a proper management of 

this limiting resource in Mexico.

The lack of suitable proxy climatic records in the 

past has limited proper hydroclimatic analysis for water 

management and climate forecasting purposes. The new 

network of tree-ring chronologies in expanding process 

linked to historical socioeconomical data will help to 

explore relationships that may contribute to plan in advance the better management of limited water resources 

in central and northern Mexico.

Figure 11. Low frequency events common to all precipitation reconstructions for northern Mexico. The arrows show dry periods 

present in most of the reconstructions such as the 1810s, 1860s, 1870s, and 1950s. Generalized low frequency events are 

attributed to the influence of atmospheric circulatory patterns (e.g. ENSO, SMS).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 363

Acknowledgments

This study was funded by the Inter-American Institute 

for Global Change through out the Tree-line project 

(CRN-03). Additional funds were provided by INIFAP, 

project PRECI 2946.

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Introduction

The United Nations Framework Convention on 

Climate Change (UNFCCC) requires participating nations to develop and communicate a national inventory 

of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse 

gases (GHGs), including carbon dioxide (CO2) (Articles 

4.1 and 12). The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change (IPCC), established in 1988, assesses scientific, 

technical, and socio-economic information relevant to 

understanding the scientific basis of risks of human-induced climate change. The IPCC also prepares reports 

and technical papers that provide independent scientific 

information and advice in support of the UNFCCC. The 

IPCC provides:

Guidelines for assembling, documenting, and transmitting complete and consistent national inventory •

data, regardless of the methods used to produce the 

estimates.

Instructions for calculating emissions of CO2 and 

methane (CO4), as well as other trace gases, from six 

major emission source categories (or “sectors”).

A compendium of information on methods for estimating emissions for a broader range of GHGs and a 

complete list of source types for each.

One of the six major emission source sectors is the land 

use change and forestry (LUCF) sector. LUCF consists of 

five categories, called “modules.” With an estimated 20 

percent of CO2 emissions coming from land use changes 

(Watson and others 2000), monitoring the national inventory requires a means to measure the carbon content 

of various vegetation types. The UNFCCC specifies 

minimum requirements for measuring, monitoring, and 

reporting CO2 emissions and removals due to land use 

•

•

A Carbon Inventory for Mexico

L. Wood, Senior Associate and Remote Sensing Specialist, and D. A. Hughell, Associate and 

GIS Specialist, ARD, Inc., Burlington VT 

H. G. Lund, Forest Inventory Specialist, Forest Information Services, Gainesville, VA

V. E. Torres, Remote Sensing Specialist, Prextec, Nicolas San Juan 360, Col. de Valle, México

Mario Pérez-Chavéz, Biologist and President, GEOSFERA, Adolfo Ruiz Cortinez, 209, 

Aguascalientes, México

Abstract—Treaties such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate 

Change (UNFCCC) recognize the link between changes in vegetation cover and impacts 

on the global climate. The UNFCCC specifies guidelines for monitoring land use changes 

and for including such changes in the “equation” for evaluating a nation’s compliance 

with efforts to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) releases into the atmosphere. With an estimated 20 percent of CO2

 emissions coming from land use changes, such monitoring 

must measure the carbon content of various vegetation types. ARD, Inc. developed such 

means through a United States Agency for International Development (USAID) project 

entitled Technical Assistance for Developing a Carbon Index for Mexico. The purpose of 

the project was to strengthen Mexico’s ability to estimate the amount of biomass CO2

lost or gained over time based on a consistent methodology. The ARD team developed 

a methodology for deriving national carbon estimates from, and in coordination with, 

well-established Mexican government programs. The team focused on the following 

land use change and forestry (LUCF) reporting categories: changes in forest and other 

woody biomass stocks, forest and grassland conversion, and abandonment of managed 

lands. For each category, the team developed technical guidelines that use data collection efforts already in existence or that would soon be underway—that is, long-term 

government programs funded each year that would be relatively consistent over time. 

The team felt that such commitment was necessary to support change estimates that 

occur on a time scale of decades. The team field-tested the methodology and had the 

results peer reviewed. The ARD procedures have application throughout the western 

hemisphere and indeed the rest of the world.
366 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

changes, and for evaluating a nation’s compliance with 

international efforts to reduce CO2 releases into the atmosphere. To date, Mexico has filed two national inventory 

reports to the UNFCCC (1997 and 2001). A third report 

is required in 2009.

This paper describes a methodology to strengthen 

Mexico’s ability to estimate the amount of biomass 

CO2 lost or gained over time from land use changes that 

is consistent with IPCC guidelines and uses existing 

Mexican government data resources. ARD, Inc. carried out the work through a United States Agency for 

International Development (USAID) project entitled 

Technical Assistance for Developing a Carbon Index 

for Mexico (SEMARNAT 2003). At the time of this 

study, the Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National 

Greenhouse Gas Inventories (Houghton and others 1997) 

were still in use.

Mexican Government Data 

Resources

Two primary sources of data are required for the 

ARD methodology. The first is the national land use/

land cover (LU/LC) maps of the Instituto Nacional de 

Estadística Geografía e Informática (INEGI, National 

Institute of Statistics, Geography and Informatics), the 

agency responsible for integrating Mexico’s statistical 

information systems. These maps show 66 different 

land use and vegetation types. INEGIs methodology is 

fully documented, has remained consistent for decades, 

and includes ground truth. The polygons of the INEGI 

LU/LC maps can be used to estimate areas associated 

with all land use and vegetation classes of interest, for 

the entire country.

The second data source is the tree volume data of the 

National Forest Inventory. At the time of our study, the 

Government of Mexico had embarked on a national forest 

inventory – the Inventario Nacional Forestal (INF). The 

Ley Forestal (Forest Law) of 1992 and 2003 mandated 

this inventory and provided guidelines both in the law and 

in its accompanying rules and regulations. The Instituto 

Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales (INIFAP) carried 

out the inventory with oversight by Comisión Nacional 

Forestal (CONAFOR) with funding from CONAFOR’s 

parent agency, Secretaria de Medio Ambiente y Recursos 

Naturales (SEMARNAT). CONAFOR provides detailed 

guidelines for the collection of inventory field data. These 

field data will provide wood volume estimates, which 

can be used to “characterize” some of the INEGI LU/LC 

classes in terms of their carbon content. Since the early 

1980s, the INF has been the only government-approved 

source of wood volume data in Mexico.

Our methodology associates the INF sample points 

with the “forest” classes mapped by INEGI. Both data 

sets are essential to estimate the biomass carbon content 

in the LUCF sector in Mexico. The two data resources 

are described in more detail below.

INEGI LU/LC Maps

In Mexico, the successive INEGI LU/LC map series 

can be used to estimate area changes at the national level. 

As a country ranked among the world’s top five in terms 

of plant species diversity, INEGI’s land classification 

system is necessarily complex. At the scale of 1:250,000, 

INEGI uses three-tier, hierarchical classification criteria 

made up of plant community association, presence or 

absence of species indicating a secondary stage in the 

plant community, and soil erosion. At the top tier, this 

classification scheme is easily referenced to both forest 

classes and IPCC ecosystems. As part of this work, we 

developed a lookup table to link INEGIs 66 vegetation 

types to the IPCC’s 17 LUCF ecosystems.

At the time of this study, the most recent complete 

cartographic set of LU/LC maps available for the entire 

country were the INEGI Series II maps derived from 

1993 Landsat satellite image interpretation and supplemented with field data collected over the period 1994 to 

1996. INEGI was in the process of producing the Series 

III maps using 2002 to 2004 satellite and field data, with 

expected completion of the vegetation and agriculture 

layers in November 2004. Together, the completed Series 

II and III maps are designed to measure change. The 1993 

INEGI Series II establishes a baseline to estimate LU/

LC change, while the ongoing Series III mapping effort 

defines the period over which changes can be assessed. 

INEGI had completed about ten digital sheets in draft 

form for Series III at the time of this study.

INF Forest Inventory

In Mexico, SEMARNAT is responsible for the design 

and supervision of the national forest inventory. The 

new INF follows closely the design of the USDA Forest 

Service and the Canadian Forest Service inventories 

(Lund 2003). Thus, the new survey will generate data for 

Mexico that are comparable to the rest of North America. 

The implementation of the forest inventory survey is 

underway, with modest progress in the watersheds of the 

rivers Lerma-Santiago in Central Mexico and Pánuco in 

the State of Veracruz. Limited progress is also being made 

in areas of the States of Hidalgo and Jalisco.

By overlaying a sampling grid on the INEGI LU/LC 

maps, the INF will produce sample wood volume data 

for all areas mapped as “forest” by INEGIs Map Series 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 367

III. The grid spacing is 5 km x 5 km for tropical and 

temperate forest (fig. 1), 10 km x 10 km for scrub land, 

and 20 km x 20 km for arid zones. The INEGI maps 

restrict to “forest” classes the areas where INF field data 

are collected. That is, the INF sampling grid “filters” 

points that fall in “forest” classes, excluding points that 

fall into other classes such as agriculture, urban areas, 

and water bodies.

The field data collected for the INF includes tree 

species, height, diameter, total basal area, and density of herbaceous vegetation. Appropriate “expansion 

equations” are used to convert timber volume data 

to estimates of tree biomass. The INF does not currently collect data on litter biomass, but the substantial 

component of above ground forest biomass in Mexico 

is usually contained in trunks, branches, and foliage. 

Thus, a good approximation to the carbon content of 

the LUCF sector in Mexico can be derived from the 

samples of the INF.

Although the primary focus of the INF is to estimate 

the commercial potential of forest lands, the survey also 

collects data and information on scrub land and arid zone 

vegetation – categories that fit within the context of the 

UNFCCC agreement. When the INF is complete, Mexico 

will have the data necessary to provide good estimates 

of above-ground carbon for forest lands. The sampling 

intensity ensures that the inventory will obtain enough 

samples for each INF class to provide biomass estimates 

at a pre-specified level of confidence.

Definitions of “Forest”

The Marrakesh Accords (UNFCCC 2001) provide the 

definitions, modalities, rules and guidelines relating to 

land use, land use change, and forestry activities under 

the Kyoto Protocol of the UNFCCC. However, the definition of “forest” and “degraded forest” provided by the 

Ley Forestal, INEGI, and the Marrakesh Accords differ 

in significant ways.

The Marrakesh Accords define “forest” as:

“a minimum area of land of 0.05 to 1.0 hectares 

with tree crown cover (or equivalent stocking 

level) of more than 10 to 30 per cent with trees 

with the potential to reach a minimum height of 2 

to 5 meters at maturity in situ. A forest may consist 

either of closed forest formations, where trees 

of various stories and undergrowth cover a high 

proportion of the ground, or open forest. Young 

natural stands and all plantations which have yet 

to reach a crown density of 10 to 30 per cent or 

tree height of 2 to 5 meters are included under 

forest, as are areas normally forming part of the 

forest area which are temporarily unstocked as a 

result of human intervention such as harvesting or 

natural causes but which are expected to revert to 

forest” (UNFCCC 2001).”

For national GHG reporting, nations are free to choose 

any threshold for defining forest land within the ranges 

given in the Marrakesh Accords.

Based upon the Ley Forestal, the INF defines “forest” 

as any naturally occurring area covered by trees, scrub, 

or arid zone vegetation.

INEGI distinguishes between forests and forests 

with secondary vegetation. INEGI defines “forest” as 

naturally occurring tree-covered areas larger than 25 

hectares with more than 60 percent tree crown cover. 

Forests with secondary vegetation are defined as those 

having 10 percent to 60 percent crown cover with the 

presence of secondary species—specifically, the presence 

of key indicator species. INEGI does not include forest 

plantations, orchards, or urban parks in its definition of 

“forest.” Forest plantations and orchards are mapped as 

perennial crops; urban parks are not separated from the 

“urban” class. Thus, the INEGI definition may omit a 

large amount of area that the Marrakesh Accords would 

consider forested.

What constitutes a “degraded forest” is yet another 

issue. In Mexico, a forest with secondary vegetation 

Figure 1. INF Sampling Grid Overlaid on INEGI LU/LC Map.
368 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

is often regarded as degraded forest. Such areas might 

remain as forests or be converted to different land use 

types. IPCC defines degradation of forest as “a direct 

human-induced long-term loss (persisting for X years 

or more) of at least Y percent of forest carbon stocks 

[and forest values] since time T and not qualifying as 

deforestation or an elected activity under Article 3.4 

of the Kyoto Protocol. (Penman 2003a). It remains to 

specify an area threshold if desired, as well as time and 

carbon loss thresholds in order to “operationalize” such 

a definition.

The IPCC focuses on human-induced causes and, in 

this case, on degradation of the structure and function 

of the forest. The time scale for “degradation” is long 

term—to distinguish it from “carbon stock reductions” 

which are short-term changes (for example, timber harvesting as part of sustainable forest management). The 

term is intended to capture overuse or poor management 

of forests leading to long-term reduction in carbon stocks 

(in other words, biomass density). A forest with secondary vegetation may or may not result in a long-term 

reduction in carbon stocks or in reduced capacity of the 

forest to produce goods and services, so the Mexican 

definition encompasses a much broader set of parameters than the “degraded” forest defined by the IPCC. 

However, these lands certainly represent areas of active 

change in biomass.

In addition to forest lands, there are other categories 

of lands designated by the UNFCCC on which countries 

are to monitor and report. These include croplands, 

grasslands, wetlands, and settlements. Scrub and arid 

zone vegetation would be reported as “grasslands” according to IPCC Good Practice Guidance for Land Use, 

Land-Use Change and Forestry (Penman 2003b). These 

areas, however, are classified as forest according to the 

Ley Forestal (and therefore the INF).

Methodology

When its third report to the UNFCCC is due in 2009, 

and before the INF is completed, the Government of 

Mexico will require information for estimating net 

emissions and removals of CO2 in the LUCF sector. Our 

methodology is designed to accommodate the incomplete 

INF forest inventory data. Our methodology collects field 

data on a subset of INF samples large enough to provide 

carbon estimates to a pre-determined level of confidence 

or sampling error (Lund, Thomas 1989). This approach 

does not deviate from the systematic INF sampling grid, 

but rather selects points from the grid to satisfy the immediate needs for carbon reporting in lieu of a completed, 

nationwide INF.

We stratify INEGIs LU/LC cartographic series according to vegetation types, then use the INF sampling 

grid to determine areas where data can be collected to 

estimate carbon stocks. Such a subset must include stable 

areas as well as those undergoing change in each of the 

IPCCs LUCF reporting categories. For this subset, data 

collection should follow the INF standard procedures, but 

need not include the full set of parameters. Only data for 

those parameters essential for estimating biomass carbon 

need be collected.

Since there are no carbon measurements from the 

reference date, the Government of Mexico will need to 

assume that the carbon content of a given LU/LC class 

measured in 2002/2004 can be applied to the same class 

defined in 1993. The extrapolation of 2002/2004 carbon 

measurements to an earlier date must be substantiated 

by the calculated variance of the carbon content in the 

samples collected within the classes of interest. For example, if the carbon content of mature pine forest turns 

out to be relatively homogeneous in the INF survey of 

2003 (in other words, the computed variance is small), 

one could extrapolate these measurements back to 1993 

with greater confidence. On the other hand, if the coefficient of variance (the ratio of the sample standard 

deviation and sample mean) of the carbon content of 

a given forest type is as much as 40 percent, then this 

procedure may not generate reliable estimates. Thus, 

an analysis of within-stratum variance must be carried 

out before undertaking the collection of a sub sample 

of INF data.

The INEGI LU/LC maps do not contain enough information on biomass variance to be useful for allocating 

sample size. In our study, we found that for some INEGI 

categories (such as forest with secondary vegetation) 

carbon stock estimates may vary as much as an order of 

magnitude. Such a wide range of carbon values, coupled 

with the extent of forest with secondary vegetation in the 

country, could represent one of the greatest uncertainties 

for estimating carbon stock and carbon stock changes 

from the LUCF sector in Mexico. Thus, the INF sample 

collection must begin with a survey designed to yield 

the variance information required to define the number 

of samples necessary to provide estimates at a given 

confidence level. Once the parameters of the LU/LC 

classes are determined, the value and variance of the 

IPCC categories that are aggregates of those classes can 

then be established.

The following steps outline our procedure for establishing a forest biomass baseline (“phase 1”), estimating 

changes in forest biomass using INEGI maps and INF plots 

(“phase 2”), and computing the change (“phase 3”).

Phase I. Estimating Current Biomass (Baseline)

1. Establish inventory unit boundaries.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 369

Overlay INF grid.

Establish INF plots.

Record field-observed INEGI class and IPCC category 

(needed to estimate area sampling errors).

Measure trees (needed for volumes).

Superimpose latest INEGI maps.

Record latest INEGI map class for each plot.

Stratify plots according to INEGI map classification.

Compute average volume of wood per hectare by 

stratum.

 Estimate volume of wood per hectare, variance, and 

so forth using tree data.

 Estimate the area of each stratum. (There is a choice 

of using the plot expansion factor or the sum of the 

INEGI strata by class in the inventory unit. While the 

former may be “proper,” the latter may be more useful 

when mapping change.).

 Estimate total volume per stratum by multiplying area 

by average volume per hectare.

 Expand to inventory unit by summing strata totals.

 Estimate and report sampling errors.

Phase II. Estimating Past Biomass

 Estimate INEGI forest type areas from old maps 

within same inventory unit.

 Superimpose old INEGI maps over new; note areas 

of change.

 Subtract or add areas of change to information derived 

from phase II, step 15.

 Use strata average volume/hectare derived from phase 

I, step 9 and multiply by old INEGI stratum area to 

get volume per strata for the time the old maps were 

made.

 Sum strata totals to get old inventory unit volumes.

 Compare results from Phase II and I.

Phase III. Computing Change

 Stratify according to the IPCC change category 

and insert data into appropriate IPCC category as to 

whether change was:

(Forest > degraded) = Closed forest to forest with 

secondary vegetation = Degradation or disturbance. 

(IPCC “Changes in Forest and Other Woody 

Biomass”)

(Forest > non-forest) = Land conversion (IPCC 

“Forest and Grassland Conversion”)

(Non-forest > forest) = Land conversion (IPCC 

“Abandonment of Managed Lands”)

(Forest > improved forest) = Open forest to closed 

forest = Forest improvement (“Changes in Forest 

and Other Woody Biomass”)

 Estimate and report sampling errors for each IPCC 

category

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

10.

11.

12.

13.

14.

15.

16.

17.

18.

19.

20.

21.

•

•

•

•

22.

Application of Methodology to 

the IPCCs LUCF Categories

Although establishing a “carbon baseline” is desirable, 

the essential information required for reporting to the 

UNFCCC are the net changes (“emissions by sources 

and removals by sinks”) of CO2 due to human-induced 

(“anthropogenic”) causes. Specifically, for the LUCF 

sector, the reporting categories are (a) changes in forest 

and other woody biomass stocks; (b) forest and grassland 

conversion; (c) abandonment of managed lands; (d) CO2 

emissions and removals from soil; and (e) other. The first 

step, then, is to identify changes in areas relevant to the 

IPCC. Our methodology addresses categories (a) through 

(c) and, incidentally, (e), but not (d).

Changes in Forest and Other Woody 

Biomass

The IPCC category “changes in forest and other 

woody biomass” accounts for “the emissions or removals of carbon (and CO2

) due to changes in forest and 

other woody biomass stocks affected by human activity” 

(Houghton and others 1997). Specifically, “emissions” 

encompass commercial harvest, fuel wood consumption, 

and “other” wood removed. These are partially offset by 

“removals” calculated as the product of the area of forest 

biomass stock and annual growth rate. The computations 

required for estimating the CO2 emissions and removals 

for this category are shown graphically in figure 2.

Changes in woody biomass can occur in areas that do 

not necessarily undergo a change in land use but which 

do change in their above-ground forest biomass density. 

(Hence, these areas remain in the same class assignment 

and are still classified as “forest”). This gradual process 

often begins with an undisturbed mature forest and in 

some cases ends with a change of land use (deforestation), commonly cropland, or pasture. In this case, the 

change would be accounted for under IPCC guidelines as 

a “conversion.” Alternatively, if it can be demonstrated 

that these areas are undergoing a long-term reduction in 

their capacity to produce goods and services, they would 

be reported under “Other.”

INEGI classifies forest with secondary vegetation 

by the presence of secondary species with a concurrent 

reduction of crown cover. Mexico has large areas of forest with secondary vegetation, especially in temperate 

forests. If changes in woody biomass do not translate into 

changes in crown cover or result in the introduction of 

indicator species, a comparison of INEGI map series will 

not detect the changes. (For example, a forest with 100 

percent crown cover and 350 tC/ha of biomassin t0 could 
370 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

be degraded to a 60 percent crown cover and 280 tC/ha 

in ti and still retain the same INEGI LU/LC type.)

Forest and Grassland Conversion

The IPCC category “forest and grassland conversion” 

is primarily intended to account for the effects of slash 

and burn agriculture. Procedures for computing the net 

CO2 emissions and removals from this category (fig. 3) 

account for the activities of cutting undergrowth and felling trees, followed by burning the biomass on site or as 

fuelwood (off site), with some of the biomass remaining 

behind to decay slowly.

In Mexico, land conversion is recorded as “deforestation” when it takes place in temperate or tropical forests 

and “clearing” when it takes place in scrubland. Clear 

cutting is common in tropical forests in southern Mexico, 

where forest is replaced by rangeland. Elsewhere, 

changes are more gradual. Progressive fragmentation of 

temperate forest (Herrera 2004) nevertheless eventually 

leads to establishment of agricultural lands.

The INEGI maps are particularly relevant for establishing where forest and grassland conversion has taken 

place, since other national mapping programs have not 

used consistent classification schemes or incorporated 

ground truth, without which measuring change is difficult 

if not impossible. Additional detail is also provided which 

is useful for understanding the causes of the changes. 

For areas identified with secondary vegetation, INEGI 

Figure 2. Changes in Forest and Other Woody Biomass.

Figure 3. Forest and Grassland Conversion.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 371

includes field verification of dominant species, while 

areas of mixed vegetation with shifting agriculture 

are shown by a specific hatching pattern. The major 

drawback of the INEGI map series is that they are only 

generated every 10 years.

Abandonment of Managed Lands

The IPCC category “abandonment of managed lands” 

deals with “net CO2 removals in biomass accumulation 

resulting from the abandonment of managed lands,” where 

“managed lands” include cultivated lands and pasture 

(Houghton and others 1997). Because carbon accumulation on abandoned lands is sensitive to ecosystem type, 

re-growth rates are further subdivided into land abandoned 

during the 20 years prior to the inventory, and land abandoned between 20 and 100 years ago. The computations 

required for estimating the CO2 emissions and removals 

for this category are indicated graphically in figure 4.

The largest areas in Mexico of formerly managed, 

now abandoned lands are in Central Mexico (Herrera 

2004). These areas were mostly marginal agricultural 

lands that had been abandoned due to unfavorable market 

conditions. They include many areas formerly registered 

in the Ministry of Agriculture’s farm subsidy program 

Apoyos y Servicos a la Comercialización Agropecuaria 

(ASERCA).

Testing and Peer Review

Throughout the study we conducted a multiple-stage 

peer review, both technical and operational, of the evolving methodology. Peer reviewers included nationally and 

internationally recognized experts in the fields of forest 

inventory, mapping, and remote sensing, as well as a 

representative from the IPCC Task Force on National 

Greenhouse Gas Inventories. This peer review provided 

valuable guidance for directing our effort, and ensured 

compatibility not only with the IPCC but also with the 

North American Forestry Commission.

We tested the methodology in the Mexican state of 

Michoacán using Series II and III map sheets made 

available to us by INEGI. We engaged the services of 

a private contractor familiar with the INF procedures 

to collect data on a sample of INF points within INEGI 

quadrangle E-14-01. Of the 92 INF grid points that 

fall within this quadrangle, 64 are located in temperate 

forests, nine in tropical forests, and 19 in non-forested 

areas. We randomly selected 21 points from the INF grid 

which were classified as temperate forest in the INEGI 

Series II map. (We did not include tropical forests or 

other land cover types since the number of grid points 

in both cases would have been too small to be useful.) 

Procedures employed for collecting data from sample 

plots were nearly identical to the INF procedures, with 

the exception that data were not collected on species 

diversity, tree growth rings, minor vegetation, and soil 

organic matter. These data are not considered necessary 

for estimating above-ground biomass to the accuracy 

necessary for national carbon reporting.

During July 2003, the contractor collected field data 

on 19 of the 21 plots. (Land owners denied access to two 

plots.) We processed these data to calculate the volume 

of the stems and limbs for each plot (table 1). The results 

indicate rather high standard deviations, indicating a high 

“within stratum” variability.

Figure 4. Abandonment of Managed Lands.
372 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

It is useful to estimate the optimal sample size required 

to ensure a sample large enough to obtain the desired 

precision, while not sampling more points than needed. 

Using a “t” value of 1.96 and the average standard deviation from the data collected (100.0 m3/ha), the sample 

sizes corresponding to errors of 10, 20, and 30 m3/ha are 

305, 76, and 34, respectively.

The preliminary results of our field test suggest that 

the methodology outlined in this paper would provide 

a mechanism for Mexico to make use of the INEGI 

LU/LC map series and INF for the purposes of national 

GHG inventory reporting to the UNFCCC in the LUCF 

sector.

Conclusions

The Government of Mexico should consider our 

methodology as a mechanism to improve its estimates 

of emissions and removals of GHGs, especially CO2, 

from the LUCF sector in Mexico. Because the data upon 

which the methodology depends is the product of longterm, mandated government programs, it should yield 

consistent, reliable results now and in the future.

The specific Government programs that would allow 

the estimate of CO2 are the 1:250,000 scale LU/LC map 

series of the Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía 

e Informática (INEGI) and the Inventario Nacional 

Forestal (INF, National Forest Inventory). The INEGI 

maps provide vegetation base maps (Victoria 2004), 

while the INF data provide information needed to characterize the mapped vegetation in terms of carbon content. 

However, unlike the well-established INEGI LU/LC map 

series, the INF program is advancing piece-meal, though 

there is a general strategy and plan of action to survey 

the entire country (Sandoval 2004).

Until the INF is complete, the sampling frame 

procedures used are fully defined and can be used immediately to gather data specifically for the purpose 

fulfilling Mexico’s international reporting commitments 

to the UNFCCC.

Acknowledgments

The ARD team acknowledges the support and contributions of Ms. Heather Huppe and Mr. David Antonioli, 

USAID/Mexico; Dr. Julia Martínez, Instituto Nacional de 

Ecologia (INE) and her staff; Dr. Omar Masera, Instituto 

de Ecologia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México 

and his staff; Dr. Franscisco Takaki Takaki, Biol. Arturo 

Victoria Hernandéz, Ing. Alfonso Zarco Muñoz, and numerous other helpful staff of INEGI; and Bernard Herrera 

Herrera, Universidad Autónoma Chapingo.

References

Herrera Herrera, Bernard. 2004. Deforestación y Dinámica 

Territorial, Pariodo 1980 – 2000; Univ. Aut. Chapingo; 

Chapingo, México.

Houghton J.T., Meira Filho L.G., Lim B., Treanton K., Mamaty 

I., Bonduki, Y., Griggs D.J. and Callander B.A. (Eds). 1997. 

Revised 1996 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse 

Inventories. IPCC/OECD/IEA, Paris, France. www.ipccnggip.iges.or.jp/public/gl/invs1.htm.

Watson, Robert T. and others. eds. 2000. Land Use, Land Use 

Change, and Forestry - A Special Report for the IPCC; 

Cambridge Press; 375 p.

Lund, H. G. 2003. North American Ecoregion Database 

Project. Management and Engineering Technologies 

International, Inc. (METI) Contract Number: 45318720535; 

Order Number: 43-3187-3-0620 Washington, DC: U.S. 

Department of Agriculture: Forest Service. Miscellaneous 

pagination.

Lund, H. Gyde; Thomas, Charles E. 1989. A primer on stand 

and forest inventory designs. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-54. 

Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Agriculture; Forest 

Service. 96 p. (PDF: 4.1 MB) http://www.fs.fed.us/rm/ftcol/publications/outofprint/wo_54.pdf.

Penman, Jim and others (eds.). 2003a. Definitions and 

methodological options to inventory emissions from direct 

human-induced degradation of forests and devegetation 

of other vegetation types; Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change. IPCC-XXI/Doc. 8. Kanagawa, Japan: 

IPCC Secretariat; 32 p.

Penman, Jim and others (eds.) 2003b. Good Practice 

Guidance for Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry; 

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC National 

Table 1. Data from the 19 INF data points summarized by INEGI forest type.

Volume (m3/ha)

INEGI Vegetation Type IPCC Category Count Mean Std.dev.

Pine-oak forest Coniferous forest 6 120.4 83.7

Pine-oak forest/VSa Coniferous forest 8 135.1 128.8

Oak forest/Vsa Broadleaf forest 3 83.9 74.0

Oak-pine forest/VSa Broadleaf forest 2 46.3 71.1

All vegetation types 27.6 100.0
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 373

Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme; Kanagawa, Japan: 

Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES).

Sandoval, Alberto. 2004. Inventario Nacional Forestal y 

de Suelos, Presentación Ejecutiva, Comisión Nacional 

Forestal, Panel de Conferencias Sobre el Inventario Forestal 

y de Suelos, Reunión Anual de Geografía; July 2, 2004; 

Guadalajara , Jalisco, Mexico.

SEMARNAT, 2003. Taller sobre mejoras a los estimados de 

emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, para el sector uso 

de suelo, cambio de uso de suelo y silvicultura. Febrero 26, 

2003. Mexico City: Instituto Nacional de Ecologia.; www.

ine.gob.mx/dgicurg/cclimatico/taller_darum.html.

UNFCCC. 2001. Report Of The Conference Of The Parties 

On Its Seventh Session, Held At Marrakesh From 29 

October To 10 November 2001, Addendum Part Two: 

Action Taken By The Conference Of The Parties, Volume 

I; FCCC/CP/2001/13/Add.1.

Victoria, Arturo. 2004. Información de Uso del Suelo y 

Vegetación, Series III, Instituto Nacional de Estadística 

Geografía e Informática, Panel de Conferencias Sobre 

el Inventario Forestal y de Suelos, Reunión Anual de 

Geografía, July 2, 2004, Guadalajara , Jalisco, Mexico.
374 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 375

Society and Nature 

Interactions
376 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

History contains many stories of the high regard with 

which man has viewed land in past times. For millennia, most wars were fought for the possession of land, 

and most people lived in close association with the soil, 

fields, and forests that sustained them. The United States 

has a wealth of land, with 747 million acres of forestland 

or more than 2.5 acres per citizen (fig. 1). With changes 

in society, such as growth in population and increases 

in consumption, human pressures on that land base are 

likely to increase. Monitoring such changes will be 

important, as will defining key policy-relevant questions that can lead to effective land use and land cover 

monitoring.

An example of monitoring and analysis that will be 

used in this paper centers on periodic U.S. natural resource assessments mandated by the national Forest and 

Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act (RPA) of 

1974, to support USDA Forest Service (2001) strategic 

planning and policy analyses. The RPA act requires that 

decadal national assessments, with mid-decade updates, 

include an analysis of present and anticipated uses; demand for and supply of the renewable resources of forest, 

range, and other associated lands; and an emphasis on 

pertinent supply, demand, and price relationship trends. 

The 2000 RPA assessment provides a broad array of 

information about the Nation’s forests and rangelands, including the current situation and prospective area changes 

over the next 50 years (Alig and others 2003, 2004). 

Related data illustrate the dynamics of our Nation’s land 

base, and how adjustments are likely to continue in the 

future. Projections of land use and forest cover changes 

provide inputs into a larger system of models that project 

timber resource conditions and harvests, wildlife habitat, 

and other natural resource conditions (USDA Forest 

Service 2001).

The 2000 RPA assessment is the most recent one 

and the context has broadened over time (USDA Forest 

Service 2001). Interest in sustainable management of the 

world’s forest resources was heightened by the United 

Nations Conference on Environment and Development 

in 1992. Since that time, various countries have joined 

together to discuss and attempt to reach consensus on 

ways to evaluate progress toward the management of 

their forest resources. The United States participates in 

the Montreal Process, designed to use a set of criteria 

and indicators for the conservation and sustainable 

management of temperate and boreal forests. The 

criteria provide a common framework for describing, 

assessing, and evaluating a country’s progress toward 

forest sustainability at the national level. Information 

from the periodic RPA Assessments can shed light on 

whether we can sustain both increasing consumption 

of forest products and forest resource conditions (Alig 

and Haynes 2002). Current debates about sustainability involve both physical notions of sustainability and 

competing socioeconomic goals for public and private 

land management. Land-base changes also indicate the 

importance of viewing “sustainability” across the entire 

Human and Nature Interactions: A Dynamic Land Base of 

Many Goods and Services

Ralph J. Alig, Team Leader and Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station, Corvallis, OR

Abstract—Availability of land is fundamental for sustainable forestry, providing the basis 

for the production of a wide array of goods and services (for example, biodiversity, forest 

carbon sequestration). This paper summarizes types of land-related data contained in 

major U.S. data bases, and gives examples of how such data were used in projecting 

changes in forest area for use in regional and national studies of forest sustainability. 

Forest land values are discussed, considering a variety of geographic, biological, regulatory, economic, and social situations. Forest land values provide informational signals 

on what amounts and types of forest land are likely and prospects for the provision of 

mixes of land-based goods and services. Urbanization is related to population growth 

and affects timberland values, forest fragmentation, forest parcelization, and ownership 

changes. Advances in data management and processing (for example, GIS) have allowed 

for advances in forest land analyses. Emerging issues include impacts of any developing 

markets for forest-based goods and services, such as forest carbon.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 377

land base and across sectors, in contrast to the current 

typical sector approach, as in examining “sustainable 

forest management” (Alig and Haynes 2002).

This synthesis paper has four parts. The first part 

discusses data bases used in analyzing changes in macro 

land use and land cover, and the methods used to project 

changes. The second component of the paper illustrates 

the utility of land value information when considering 

sustainability across sectors. The third part focuses on 

the issue of deforestation brought about by conversion to 

developed uses and what recent projections indicate. The 

fourth section of this synthesis paper discusses emerging 

issues regarding environmental services, such as forest 

carbon sequestration.

Land Use and Land Cover 

Changes

Over the past 25 years, renewable resource assessments have addressed demand, supply, and inventory of 

various renewable resources in increasingly sophisticated 

fashion, including simulation and optimization analyses 

of area changes in land uses (for example, urbanization) 

and land covers (for example, plantations vs. naturally 

regenerated forests). More than two decades ago, area 

projection modeling systems replaced expert opinion approaches in the national RPA assessments, as part of state 

of the art approaches for regional and national resources 

assessments. Such models reflect that key land base 

changes such as afforestation and deforestation are driven 

by quite different socio-economic factors. Projections of 

area changes are important for a wide range of natural 

resource analyses, including those for wildlife habitat, 

timber supply, global climate change, water, recreation, 

open space, and for other ecosystem services.

Land use data are collected by various agencies for a 

variety of purposes. Land use surveys generally differ 

in terms of statistical data-collection methods, scope, 

and a variety of other characteristics. No one land use 

database provides universal coverage over space and 

time for use in addressing all relevant land use and land 

cover policy questions. I next describe three primary 

data sources: the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) 

data assembled to support the 2000 RPA assessment 

by the USDA Forest Service (Smith and others 2001); 

the National Resource Inventory (NRI) by the USDA 

National Resource Conservation Service (USDA NRCS 

2001), and the Major Land Use Time Series (MLUS) by 

the USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) (Vesterby 

and Krupa 2001).

Forest Inventory and Analysis

The FIA surveys conducted by the USDA Forest 

Service are designed to provide objective and scientifically credible information on key forest attributes, such 

Figure 1. Change in per capita amount of forest area per resident, by selected region, 1952-1997 (acres) 

(Smith and others 2001).
378 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

as forest stocks, growth, harvest, and mortality. Related 

data are collected by region, forest ownership category 

(for example, forest industry vs. nonindustrial private 

forests), and cover type (for example, oak-hickory), by 

using a sample of more than 70,000 permanent plots. The 

FIA inventories provide consistent forest inventory data 

for the Nation, back to 1952 (Smith and others 2001). 

Different sampling grids for the NRI and FIA surveys 

make the estimates from the two inventory systems statistically independent.

The FIA inventory data are gathered by using photointerpretation and ground truthing on a systematic sample 

of plots defined as pinpoints on the ground. These data 

include land use and ownership characteristics of sample 

plots, among other data. The land use data were used in 

the Kline and Alig (2001) study of land use in the west 

side of the Pacific Northwest.

National Resources Inventory

The NRI conducted by the USDA NRCS is designed 

to assess land use conditions on nonfederal lands and 

collects data on soil characteristics, land use, land cover, 

wind erosion, water erosion, and conservation practices 

(USDA NRCS 2001). In addition to collecting data on 

about 300,000 area segments and about 800,000 points 

within those segments, a geographic information system is used to control for total surface area, water area, 

and federal land. The NRI is conducted by the USDA’s 

NRCS (2001) in cooperation with Iowa State University’s 

Statistical Laboratory.

As a result of its statistical design, the NRI allows 

land use transition matrices to be developed since 1982. 

Land use shifts occur in both directions, a dynamic that is 

captured in the so-called land use transition matrices. For 

example, between 1982 and 1997, more than 17 million 

acres of nonfederal land moved out of the pasture and 

range category and into the forest category, while during 

the same period more than six million acres moved from 

forest to pasture and range use (USDA NRCS 2001).

Major Land Use Series

The MLUS is an inventory of land developed from 

a variety of land use surveys and public administrative 

records of land use. This long term series was developed 

by the USDA ERS (Vesterby and Krupa 2001). One of 

the most widely watched statistics by land use experts 

is the number of acres converted from undeveloped uses 

to developed, or urban, uses on an annual basis. The 

MLUS uses the official U.S. Census definition of urban 

(USDC Census Bureau 2001) and the NRI data use a 

definition unique to that data system, namely developed 

land. No technical definition of urban sprawl exists, but 

most definitions have elements of low-density development, geographic separation of essential places, and 

dependence on automobiles for travel. In response to the 

concerns about the growth in the use of rural land for rural 

residences, the USDA has added a new category to the 

MLUS for recent years. The FIA surveys do not provide 

a national estimate of urban or developed land areas.

The MLUS classifies some forested land as “specialuses” land, separate from a “forest-use” category. In 

particular, “special-uses” can contain forested land in 

federal and state parks, wilderness areas, wildlife refuges, 

and similar special-purpose uses. Hence, the area of 

MLUS “forest-use” land is lower than the FIA\RPA area 

of forest land (Alig and others 2003). The gap between 

forest land and “forest-use” land has grown over the past 

60 years, with the growth of wilderness areas and other 

forested special-use land.

In addition, many additional sources of data exist on 

land use and land cover that are not used in the MLUS 

because they are not the most suitable for the purpose of 

comprehensively inventorying U.S. land. For example, 

the U.S. Geological Survey of the U.S. Department of 

the Interior maintains satellite imagery of land cover at 

various points in time. Many of these data sources are 

better suited for other specialized purposes.

Methods to Project Area Changes

Methods to project area changes for forest land and 

timberland differ by region of the United States. Methods 

vary depending on the likelihood of area changes affecting forests, the likely policy relevance of forest area 

changes, and the availability of time series of land use 

data with which to develop models of land use change. A 

method used increasingly in RPA Assessments and which 

involves use of FIA data is econometric modeling, based 

on statistical methods that are used to quantify relationships between land uses and hypothesized determinants. 

Landowners’ profit maximization typically is the theoretical basis for these models, where landowners are assumed 

to allocate land parcels to that use generating the highest 

land rent or present value of future profits. Models are 

estimated with data describing land use decisions and 

profits derived from alternative land uses. Additional 

variables may be included to control for land-use regulations and other factors that influence land use decisions. 

For example, land-use policies often are used to mitigate 

potential negative impacts of urbanization. Econometric 

land use models typically are estimated with sample plot 

data comprised of a random sample of parcels or aggregate data such as county-level observations of land use 

(Ahn and others 2002, Alig 1986, Kline and Alig 1999, 

Kline and Alig 2001).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 379

With the advent of satellite imagery and geographical 

information systems (GIS), econometric land-use models 

have been estimated using spatially-referenced plot or 

parcel-level data (Wear and Bolstad 1998, Kline and 

others 2001). Examples of explanatory variables in such 

models are rents (or proxies) for forestry, agriculture, and 

urban/developed uses.

An example of land use models developed using FIA 

data is described by Ahn and others (2002) for the South 

Central region. The model describes the relationship 

between the areas of land in different uses—private timberland, agricultural land, and urban and other land—and 

determinants of land use. The models were estimated 

by using OLS regression with pooled time series and 

cross-sectional data. The panel data set included 558 

cross-sectional units (counties) and seven time points. 

Observations for the 558 counties in the South Central 

region were from FIA inventories conducted since the 

1960s. The agricultural share of land was defined as 

that in cropland and pasture, and county-level observations were gathered from the Census of Agriculture for 

between 1964 and 1992. The share of land in urban and 

other uses was defined as a residual category containing 

uses other than forestry and agriculture (for example, 

suburban). The fitted models were used to project future 

land use in the South Central region, given assumptions 

about future population and net returns to land enterprises 

such as forestry.

Forest Land Values

Forest land values can vary by a variety of geographic, 

biological, regulatory, economic, and social situations. 

Human ties to land and the natural environment are one 

reason that we care about the forest land value. Forest 

land values help us understand the importance of forests, 

and to marshal land resources so that they might be used 

effectively and efficiently to help provide people with 

higher levels of living. Forest land values help us plan for 

better land use, to take steps for the more orderly and effective use of our land resources, and to intervene where 

necessary with land use zoning ordinances and other 

public measures to control and direct land use practices 

in the public interest. Forest use valuation is increasingly becoming more complicated, as is our economy, 

by overlays of land use zoning, environmental laws, 

forest practices regulation, site-specific environmental 

considerations, and recognition of forest resource values 

other than timber.

Much discussion in forest policy circles today is about 

forest sustainability, which seems to be part of a larger 

societal concern about the long-term capability of land to 

provide goods and services that we as a society demand. 

In addition to the question about the land’s capability is 

that of land owners’ responses to incentives to provide 

different mixes of goods and services. People vary in 

the values that they place on different environmental, 

economic, and social aspects of forests, and this affects 

the social valuation; this is in contrast to the private cost 

of providing goods and services that others may value 

from private forestland. An example to illustrate this is 

that many forestlands and open spaces (Kline and others 

2004) comprise social values—ecological, scenic, recreation, and resource protection values, which are typically 

not reflected in market prices for land. When these social 

values are present, more forestland will be developed 

than is good for society. For open space policy, one needs 

to understand social values in the context of forestland 

market values and the economic rationale and impetus 

for public and private efforts to protect forestland as open 

space. Forest land values can reveal what it may cost to 

pursue different sustainability options, if land easements, 

purchases, or rentals are desirable. The land values reveal 

what people are actually willing to pay for a bundle of 

rights necessary to gain access to land that can provide 

goods and services for a certain time period.

Land prices embody information on relative valuations by different sectors of the economy. For example, 

valuation of land currently in forest uses in some areas is 

strongly influenced by trends in developed areas (Wear 

and Newman 2004). Land values for developed uses 

typically exceed those for rural uses by a substantial 

amount (Alig and Plantinga 2004). Agricultural values 

are usually second to developed uses in potential value, 

and they are often influenced by development potential. 

With rural land uses subject to increasing conversion 

pressure, open space concerns have heightened. The 

earliest significant open space preservation efforts in the 

U.S. involved preserving and restoring publicly owned 

forests and parks at national and state levels. These efforts 

were inspired by public concern for rapid loss of forests to 

agriculture and logging in the later 19th century, and the 

desire to protect timber and water resources, and lands of 

extraordinary beauty and uniqueness. Since then, public 

concern for land use change has evolved to recognize the 

contribution of open space to our day-to-day quality of 

life—its recreation, aesthetic, ecological, and resource 

protection benefits.

Changing perceptions about forestland mirror those 

in farmland preservation. National interest in preserving farmland arose in the 1970s from concerns about 

rapid loss of farmland to development, and the supposed 

threat to food security and agricultural viability. These 

concerns led to the gradual nearly nationwide implementation of local, state, and federal farmland preservation 
380 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

programs. More recently, recognition has grown for the 

environmental amenities and the social values of farmland and the role they play in motivating public support 

for preserving farmland. Research over the past two 

decades has sought to identify these land-based values 

and incorporate them into farmland protection policies 

and programs, to ensure that the public is getting what it 

desires from preserved farmland. Similar efforts may now 

be needed in forestry, to ensure that public and private 

open space protection efforts are tailored to provide the 

social values desired from forestlands.

Development of Forestland

Conversion of rural lands to urban and other built-up 

uses affects the mix of commodities and services produced from the global land base. In the United States, 

there was a 34percent increase in the amount of land devoted to urban and built-up uses between 1982 and 1997. 

During 1982-1997, U.S. developed area increased about 

2 percent per year on average, according to the NRI (Alig 

and others 2004). The annual rate of conversion during 

the last five years of this period was more than 50percent 

higher than that of the previous five years. Forests, in particular, have been the largest source of land converted to 

developed uses in recent decades, with resulting impacts 

on forest cover and other ecological attributes.

The largest increases in U.S. developed area between 

1982 and 1997 were in the South, a key timber supply 

region (USDA NRCS 2001). The South had one-third of 

its developed area added during those 15 years. Between 

1982 and 1997, the South had seven of the ten states with 

the largest average annual additions of developed area 

according to the NRI. The top three--Texas, Florida, and 

North Carolina--each added more developed area than the 

country’s most populous state, California. The increase 

in developed area for the South was close to 20 percent, 

almost four times as large as for the Great Plains, the 

region with both the smallest changes in developed area 

and population.

Several factors contribute to expansion of developed 

area in the South: 1) above average population growth 

due in part to climatic factors and attractiveness to 

immigrants (Glaeser and Shapiro 2001); 2) above average marginal consumption rates of land per additional 

resident; and 3) income growth. Expansion of developed 

area and urban sprawl in the South has been described 

as a major issue for future natural resource management, 

especially for the region’s forests (Seelye 2001, Wear 

and Greis 2002).

The Great Plains region has the most developed area 

per resident (fig. 2) across all four NRI surveys, more 

than one acre in 1997. However, the region varies from 

the rest of the country in having lost population between 

Figure 2. Total developed area per person, by U.S. selected region, 1982, 1987, 1992, and 1997 (USDA 

Natural Resources Conservation Service 2001).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 381

the 1982 and 1987 NRIs, resulting in a loss in developed 

area. The South also has a relatively high marginal rate 

of land consumption, and also has had relatively large 

increases in population compared to the Great Plains. 

California, with the nation’s largest population, has the 

lowest level of developed area per person, less than 0.2 

acres per person.

Urbanization does not just result in direct conversion 

of forestland but can also involve forest fragmentation, forest parcelization, and ownership changes. 

Development pressures can also add to uncertainty about 

how forestland will be managed, if owners anticipate 

higher financial returns in an alternative use. Because 

forest land prices capture information regarding current 

as well as anticipated uses of land, land prices anticipate 

future development of forestland near urbanizing areas, 

casting a speculative shadow over timberland values 

(Wear and Newman 2004). With anticipated population 

and income growth, such dynamics could hold important implications for conditions of forestland and what 

environmental benefits may be sustainable.

Projections

Projections suggest continued urban expansion over 

the next 25 years, with the magnitude of increase varying by region (Alig and others 2004). U.S. developed 

area is projected to increase by 79 percent, raising 

the proportion of the total land base that is developed 

from 5.2 percent to 9.2 percent. Because much of the 

growth is expected in areas relatively stressed with 

respect to human-environment interactions, such as 

some coastal counties, implications for landscape and 

urban planning include potential impacts on sensitive 

watersheds, riparian areas, wildlife habitat, and water 

supplies. While providing additional living space and 

infrastructure, added development may also diminish 

agricultural output due to farmland loss and change ecological conditions due to conversion and fragmentation 

of forests and other natural landscapes. The projected 

developed and built-up area of about 175 million acres 

in 2025 represents an area equal to 38 percent of the 

current U.S. cropland base, or 23 percent of the current 

U.S. forestland base.

In line with recent historical trends, the South is 

projected to continue to have the most developed area 

through 2025 (Alig and others 2004). In the South land 

is often suitable for multiple land uses, given relatively 

gentle topography and ease of access. When examining 

land use dynamics, the many different pathways by which 

land use can change warrant examining both net and 

gross area changes for major land uses. For example, the 

flow between forestland and urban and developed uses 

is primarily a one-way flow toward urban and developed 

uses, although some land classified as urban and developed (for example, corridors for electrical lines) may 

infrequently shift into forest or agriculture. Movement 

of land between forestry and agriculture in the last two 

decades resulted in net gains to forestry that have offset 

forest conversion to urban and developed uses in area 

terms. However, the conditions of forested acres entering 

and exiting the forestland base can be quite different; 

entering acres may be bare ground or have young trees, 

while exiting acres often contain large trees before conversion to developed uses.

Concern about the attributes of exiting or entering 

forested acres was heightened in the 1990s when the 

rate of development increased, with about one million 

acres of forests converted to developed uses per year 

(USDA NRCS 2001). The total or gross area shifts 

involving U.S. forests are relatively large compared to 

net estimates. Gross area changes involving U.S. forests 

totaled about 50 million acres between 1982 and 1997, 

an order of magnitude greater than the net change of 4 

million acres.

Environmental Services

The linkage between land use and the environment 

affects many goods and services. The example of environmental services provided by the land base that I will 

discuss is forest carbon sequestration. Emerging issues 

include possible impacts of any new non-traditional markets for forest-based goods and environmental services, 

such as forest carbon. In discussing environmental services, I will focus on forest carbon here, while recognizing 

that many goods and services are potentially impacted by 

land base changes. Forest carbon storage has become important in international negotiations on the management 

of greenhouse gas emissions, because increased carbon 

storage can be useful in offsetting emissions of carbon 

from fossil fuel burning and other sources. The amount 

of carbon stored in forests can change through land base 

changes, adoption of forest management practices that 

allow the incorporation of more plant materials into forest 

soils, and changes in age structure. Carbon can also be 

stored in wood products.

The amount of carbon stored in trees in the East 

increased by 80 percent from 1950 to 1992 (Birdsey 

and Heath 1995). Contributing factors were tree growth 

on farmlands allowed to revert to forests. maturing of 

forests, and more fast growing plantations in the South. 

In the West, the addition of new forest carbon through 

forest growth was offset by timber harvest, resulting 

in little change in the overall amount stored. However, 
382 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

carbon storage on federal timberlands in the West may 

increase notably, if fires and other natural disturbances 

(for example, insects and disease) don’t significantly 

reduce timber inventories.

Data sources for the forest carbon estimates are FIA 

field estimates of the size of trees of various species, 

along with statistical models of the relationships between 

tree stem volume and the other components of carbon 

storage. Carbon contained in branches, leaves, the forest 

floor, and soil are estimated from such surveys. Estimates 

by Birdsey and Heath (1995) did not include national 

parks and wilderness areas or slower-growing forests 

in non-timberland forestland, although expansion into 

those areas is planned.

Land use changes can be an important part of changes 

in forest carbon storage, but data on soil carbon are 

relatively scarce. Further, the influences of land management activities on soil carbon are still poorly known. 

Measurement protocols for forest floor litter and soil 

carbon were planned at the time of the Birdsey and 

Heath (1995) study and were to be implemented as funds 

became available. Given that gross land use changes 

are typically an order of magnitude higher than for net 

changes (Alig and others 2003), influences of land use 

shifts on soil carbon are potentially quite important. 

Changes in the area of any of the major land use classes 

relate to demographic, economic, biophysical, and policy 

factors (Alig 1986), so that the suite of such factors need 

to be considered in global climate change assessments. 

Projections of forest-land and timberland areas are based 

on projections of relevant demographic and economic 

factors, which are more likely to change in the future 

than biophysical factors. Current policies can be frozen 

in place in an initial conditions run or baseline, so that 

we can examine where the current policy trajectory (for 

example, no U.S. action or implementation of policy for 

mitigating climate change) would lead, and then examine sensitivity of projections to certain policy-related 

assumptions.

Risk and uncertainty considerations include changes 

in technology. Impacts from global warming in some 

cases may be partially offset by technological changes, 

such as genetic stock improvements to boost forest carbon sequestration efforts. Other technological changes 

may also allow more output from input of land, especially in regional climates favorably affected regarding 

crop or forest production. The net outcome can’t be 

easily forecast. Some scenarios may arise where forest 

use might be better able to compete with other major 

rural land uses, such as agriculture (Alig and others 

2002).

Future Directions

Issues for land use and land cover monitoring include consistent coverage across the entire land base. 

Analogous to the snapshot of land-use information by 

USDA’s NRI, land cover modeling would benefit from 

periodic nationwide estimates of changes in forest cover. 

One source will be mapping by the National Land Cover 

Data mapping project (an output of the Multi-Resolution 

Land Characteristics Consortium), with plans for an 

updated version of the National Land Cover map for 

the year 2002. Field-based observations are also needed, 

to provide complementary data such as land ownership 

and site quality. For FIA, one challenge is to link forest 

resource data to socio-economic data, such as characteristics of who owns the forest land. The challenge is 

growing because of diverse data needed to address policy 

questions that arise with increased attention to ecosystem 

services and sustainability and activities associated with 

the environment, economy, and societal institutions.

Changes in ownership of forests should also be 

monitored, in that sales and acquisitions of forest lands 

continue to be active as market forces, globalization, and 

consolidation impact the forest sector. Forest industry 

is increasingly viewing its forests as strategic financial 

assets. Fragmentation of ownerships into several smaller 

ownerships is referred to as parcelization. This phenomenon can also have profound impacts on the economics 

of farming or forestry, even when land is not physically 

altered in any major way. Trends in fragmentation and 

parcelization warrant further study, along with monitoring of changes in population density for different classes 

of rural and urban land (Alig 2000). More people on the 

landscape include those in rural areas with attractive 

recreational land and aesthetic amenities, often involving 

forests, and related to concerns about changes in quality 

of life. Such demographic changes increase the size of 

the wildland-urban interface, whose expansion has exacerbated wildfire threats to structures and people. Overall, 

the U.S. had about 80 people per square mile of land in 

1999 (USDC Census Bureau 2001). This compares to 

about 5 people per square mile in 1790, and to a world 

average of more than 100 persons per square mile in 1999 

(United Nations 2002).

One complication in past FIA survey planning, RPA 

assessments, and global climate change assessments has 

been the lack of a unified view of future land conditions 

constructed at a scale that serves all of these assessment 

areas adequately. Attaining the ideal unification is a substantial undertaking, and this could be aided upfront by 

an assessment of common information needs. A modeling 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 383

system that can generate land base condition projections 

could provide for forest ecosystems a thorough and 

unified description of anticipated change in the extent, 

structure, and condition of the nation’s forests at useful 

regional and subregional scales. At the same time, such a 

system could augment economic measures, useful when 

investigating changes in land markets and analyzing 

trends in land values. Human-environment impacts can 

also vary across space and time, including physical fragmentation of forest cover from land-use changes that can 

affect natural resources in a variety of ways. For example, 

urbanization may cause fragmentation of wildlife habitat. 

A privately-owned optimal landscape can depart from 

a socially optimal landscape, the latter which reflects 

society’s preferences for public goods associated with 

interior forest parcels. Future policy-related research 

can examine land use shifts for parcels in a way that is 

optimal from reducing forest fragmentation. However, 

spatial configuration considerations make this complex, 

in that benefits of converting (or retaining) a parcel will 

depend on the land uses on the neighboring parcels as 

well as on other parcels affected by the policy.

Future advances in land use analyses will likely also 

rest in part on continued improvement of spatial databases, including spatial socio-economic data, as well as 

improvements in spatial econometric methods to support 

empirical data analyses. Trade-offs must be considered 

when assessing the costs and benefits associated with 

spatial detail. Along with improved data bases, monitoring of developed area trends, associated investment 

in infrastructure (for example, transportation networks 

and nodes), and related socio-economic factors will be 

important in facilitating updated projections of U.S. 

developed area.

Given the expected U.S. population increase and 

changes in economic activity, a key question is how society can make positive progress toward sustainability in 

the face of needing more developed land to serve more 

people in the future. Progress toward such goals may rest 

on progress in a search for a more integrated approach 

for describing the complex interplay between human 

activity and the environment. To help evaluate progress, 

we need a useful definition of sustainability along with 

measurable indicators that fundamentally reflect the 

long-term ecological, economic, and social well being 

as it relates to alternative uses of land. Human demands 

for forests will increase with growing populations and 

increasing personal incomes, challenging land managers 

to provide for a diverse array of societal needs, including ecological, economic, and social ones. Wood use 

has increased by 40 percent since 1960 and is expected 

to rise by about 30 percent in the next four decades 

(USDA Forest Service 2001). In addition to substantial 

demand for environmental services, this may also occur 

alongside growing interest in spiritual values associated 

with forests, their sustainable use, and restoration after 

certain disturbances.

References

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projections of land use for the South Central United States. 

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values. J. For. 102 (8): 19-24.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 385

A Century of Conservation

It has taken a century following the Industrial 

Revolution to define and refine what we call conservation. Three individuals among many scientists, activists, 

and writers played particularly significant roles and 

serve as examples. Gifford Pinchot first applied the term 

“conservation” to natural resources in the early 1900s. 

Hugh Hammond Bennett applied conservation concepts 

to soil productivity management and urged the creation 

of the Soil Conservation Service (now Natural Resources 

Conservation Service) in the mid 1930s. At mid-century, 

S. V. Ciriacy-Wantrup defined conservation as “shifting rates of resource use toward the future” (Wantrup 

1951). Resources, he said, are things that have utility 

and scar-city and are simply classified: renewable or flow 

resources are characterized by having different amounts 

become available in different time periods; nonrenewable 

or stock resources are limited in total quantity. Wantrup’s 

linkage of resource utility (value) and scarcity (in time or 

space) provide background for understanding the range 

of resource management: exploitation is all use and no 

time, whereas preservation is all time and no use. There 

have been many battles over resources conservation, with 

champions of exploitation and preservation squaring off 

over legislation-defining public policy, and creating innumerable non-government organizations, government 

agencies, and regulations. Recognition that conservation 

is a social-political-economic meeting (or battle) ground 

suggests that a good definition of the word “conservation” 

is a mix of exploitive and preservationist policies and 

practices that varies over time as dictated by the resourceusing public. Simultaneously, shortages in developing 

countries that do not even have “conservation” in their 

lexicon preclude that luxury when scarce resources are 

needed for day-to-day food, clothing, and shelter, often 

for a rapidly-expanding population.

These Twentieth Century thoughts and milestones—

and later air, water, and environmental quality, and 

endangered species protection laws—characterized 

changing attitudes toward environmental management by 

an always changing mix of exploitation and preservation. 

The Resource Buffer Theory: Connecting the Dots from 

Conservation to Sustainability

Peter E. Black, Professor, Water and Related Land Resources, Emeritus, SUNY College of 

Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse, NY

Abstract—Review of conservation history and scientific developments helps us understand relationships between humans, environment, and sustainability. Applying 

“conservation” to natural resources and practical resource management occurred early 

in the Twentieth Century; practical economic definitions of conservation and natural 

resource followed. Resource surpluses underpin the luxury of conservation in which 

we currently bask. We are not paying attention to the fact that accumulated natural 

science discoveries about wide-ranging resource distribution – so specialized that 

many scientists are unaware of each others’ works – are remarkably alike. The pattern 

– the Resource Buffer Theory – demands recognition, understanding, and emulation 

to ensure humankind’s survival. Buffers are vast amounts of resources that are as essential to species survival as are the few units of the resource utilized by individuals; 

despite their vastness, they often display delicate limits. The terrestrial resource buffers 

to which we have access and on which we depend are Hardin’s global commons. 

Maintaining a large biodiversity buffer is paramount. The distribution of carbon – the 

stuff of life and a critical linkage between the hydro- and biospheres – contradicts the 

pattern, indicative of Planet Earth’s overpopulation. Consequent global change events 

are signaling us that humankind’s oblivious violation of the ubiquitous environmental 

pattern provides an unparalleled challenge to our survival. Faced with the imperative 

of sustainability, we need to connect the dots, to control the Earth’s human population and activities including resource use and waste, and to under-stand and thereby 

proactively emulate the Resource Buffer Theory in our natural re-sources management 

policies and practices.
386 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Fundamental philosophical and site-specific issues persist, hopefully in light of better scientific understanding 

of our natural resources.

The Atomic-to-Cosmic 

Blueprint

Reviewing the wide range and long history of basic 

and applied research illuminates a ubiquitous pattern 

to the distribution of our terrestrial and extraterrestrial 

resources. Thus, energy, space, and matter (and time?) 

are distributed so that (1) only a very small proportion 

of the total quantity of the resource is directly “used” by 

humans and, (2) the vast remaining—seemingly “unused” proportion—is an essential buffer. Buffers absorb 

environmental excesses that establish and maintain those 

conditions under which a species survives. For example, 

the oceans absorb biological wastes, gasses, eroded elements and compounds from the land masses, and energy 

from the sun and atmosphere. Covering two thirds of the 

planet, they also shield us from catastrophic impacts of 

comets and meteorites that do get past our Solar System’s 

outer planets’ gravitational pull. The theory complements 

Lovelock’s (1988) assertion that Earth’s combined physical, chemical, and biological systems—Gaia—exhibit 

homeostasis, that life favorably modifies a species’ environment, thus promoting sustainability; if it doesn’t, 

the species dies.

The pattern suggests a generalization, the Resource 

Buffer Theory: “For every resource where a small proportion is essential to life processes of individuals, the 

greater proportion maintains environmental conditions 

necessary to the survival of the species” (Black 1995). 

The significance of the pattern is in the lopsided distribution of vital resources, the wonders and aesthetic patterns 

of which describe order in the universe as aesthetically 

articulated in Music of the Spheres (Murchie 1967). The 

concept is, indeed, just a theory; it may not demand or 

even be capable of identification as a law or principle. 

Nevertheless, it is.

Research provides some of the more dramatic examples of the resources so distributed, including:

Only 1 to 4 percent of the “dark matter” of the universe 

is “known” to us (Trefil 1993, Rowan and Coontz 

2003), and recently-articulated “dark energy” is similarly distributed.

Closer to home, the Sun contains 99.9 percent of our 

Solar System’s mass, while 71 percent of the Solar 

System’s planetary mass is in one planet, Jupiter (a 

very disproportionate 99.6 percent is in the outer three 

planets).

•

•

The Earth intercepts approximately one billionth 

(9.1x10-8 percent) of the sun’s energy available at the 

surface of a sphere at a distance of 93 million miles.

Summarizing the distribution of Earth’s life-giving 

water: 97 percent is salty; 2 percent is ice (or was 

prior to what currently appears to be accelerated global 

warming); three fourths of the remaining one percent 

is in deep and shallow ground water, and one-fifth 

of the rest is in lakes. The remaining approximately 

0.006 percent of Earth’s circulating fresh water is the 

renewable resource on which we directly depend.

The lopsided pattern was probably first observed in 

biology where reproduction exhibits its excesses and 

seeming waste of vast numbers of unused resources 

of sperm, eggs, seeds, and seedlings, and where for 

agriculture and forestry it is managed as in thinning 

dense plantations.

The most complex of the essential resources that 

exhibit this pattern is carbon, the very stuff of life. A 

mere 0.004 percent of the total carbon on the planet 

is organic; only 0.12 percent of that is in animals, 

the rest in plants. And, of this tiny percentage of all 

animal carbon, 4.0 percent is currently in one species, 

human beings. Actually, it is more than that. Since to 

my knowledge, no humans live in the oceans and the 

animal carbon is nearly equally distributed between 

oceanic and terrestrial environments, 8.0 percent of 

all the terrestrial animal carbon is in the 6.3 billion 

human beings that inhabit the Earth.

The Population Dimension and 

Global Change

The carbon data do not mimic the universal pattern; 

not for a species that is at the top of the food web. The 

numbers constitute evidence that humans overpopulate 

the Earth: according to the Resource Buffer Theory, one 

would expect “higher” life forms to have sequentially 

lower percentages of carbon. And, were the population 

to double by 2050 (the high growth rate estimate), 16 

percent of the terrestrial animal carbon would be in one 

species: us. That number is probably not sustainable. 

Even the present 8.0 percent is probably not sustainable, 

primarily because it is at the expense of biodiversity and 

partially underlies accelerated global change. Perhaps of 

greater importance is the observation that in addition to 

the actual amount of carbon in human beings, there is the 

impact that human activities have on the carbon cycle 

and, therefore, the vital carbon buffer, a major portion 

of which makes up the biodiversity buffer.

•

•

•

•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 387

The distribution of humans is equally serious. At 

present, one half of the world’s population lives in cities 

of more than one million; 400 urban areas have populations of one million or more. Sustainable? Questionable. 

The financial resources to provide closely packed urban 

and sparse suburban and rural communities with water, 

food, sanitary facilities, and energy at western rates of 

excess resource consumption are not sustainable without 

energy subsidization (Odum 1989): and maintaining 

an affable climate in an atmosphere overloaded with 

anthropogenic-increased carbon dioxide and methane 

is unlikely. Even—maybe especially—in the resourcewealthy United States the fast-growing, uniform 

landscapes of the Sunbelt areas are particularly vulnerable to fire, drought, flood, climatic change, and, perhaps, 

disease. These harbingers of pre-glacial-period warming 

are already exerting relentless impacts to budgets currently challenging governments at all levels. They will 

get worse. The familiar situation in developing countries 

is critical, as evidenced by the well-publicized death rates 

due to inadequate and/or contaminated water, drought, 

famine, and disease.

Further, when stressed, delicate ecosystems—the 

biodiversity buffer—display amplified fragility. There 

is little doubt that humankind‘s industrialization has 

stressed ecosystems in a variety of ways. Re-source exploitation, population growth, urban sprawl, and reliance 

on the personal automobile are principal contributors to 

this stress. Widespread deforestation and agriculturaland tree-farm-induced mono-culture that support this life 

style characteristic of western civilization have replaced 

the natural ecology of the Earth’s surface on a significant scale (Marsh 1874). Currently, extensive pavement 

and regulated storm water runoff management schemes 

to decrease local flooding also decrease ground water 

recharge that consequently diminishes on-site water for 

cooler climate, water supplies, and environmental variability. Increased impervious area results in subsidence 

as well as more downstream flooding such as in central 

Europe in 2002.

On a broader scale, wetlands, rainforests, and coral 

reefs are disappearing dramatically. This is a global 

problem and must not be considered independent of the 

Resource Buffer Theory. The classic understatement by 

Karl and Trenberth (2003) is “We’re entering into the 

unknown with climate, and its associated impacts could 

be quite disruptive.” Watson (2004) presents a stronger 

case:

Human-induced climate change is one of the most important environmental issues facing society worldwide. 

The overwhelming majority of scientific experts and 

governments acknowledge that there is strong scientific 

evidence demonstrating that human activities are changing the Earth’s climate and that further human-induced 

climate change is inevitable.

Clearly, ramifications of excess unsustainable human activity are already here. Local and global climate 

change includes greater extremes of precipitation and 

temperature associated with and/or caused by El Niño 

and La Niña, glacial retreat, rising ocean levels, more and 

greater droughts, and floods, and increased wildfires in 

Australia, Indonesia, and the United States. Biodiversity 

has decreased coincident with new diseases and reoccurrences of old pathogens. Southward movement of 

the winter storm track has brought record low winter 

temperatures and snow to the northwest and southern 

states, tornados in October of 2003, snow to the Middle 

East and Las Vegas, and the first-ever hurricane in the 

South Atlantic Ocean as I write. We can expect—and in 

all likelihood cannot prevent—ocean current reversals 

that are associated with alternating glacial and interglacial periods (Taylor, and others 1999). The North 

Atlantic Ocean Current did in fact reverse in the summer 

of 2003, apparently due to the reduction in the thickness 

of the arctic ice and subsequent movement of cold water 

through the formerly blocked Northwest Passage, with a 

probable assist from the Coriolis force. There were fifteen 

million square miles of cool waters pooled in the North 

Atlantic Ocean. The Nova Scotia lobster industry crashed 

and in Paris hundreds of deaths caused by unprecedented 

heat were recorded.

Connecting the Dots

The repetitive pattern of our resource distribution 

inspires the opportunity for action, but not without potential confusion. Modern sciences are quite specialized 

and research results are not often read by individuals 

in other disciplines. And, without statistics and “sound 

science” behind them, few authors scream “the sky 

is falling.” Disagreement among reputable scientists, 

experts, and politicians with vested interests leaves us 

confused and adrift in a sea of often conflicting opinions 

that befuddle the public. Linkage between global change 

patterns and many of the above-listed afflictions of and 

affronts to human civilization are probably not provable 

by any standards of sound science, nor is sound science 

sufficient for governance of the commons (Dietz and 

others, 2004). We are too close to some of the changes 

to see them; others are not fully understood, and there 

may be unexpected and unpredictable outcomes. On the 

other hand, logic is speaking to all of us. Scan the current 

journals: articles on these changes are rampant. It may 
388 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

already be too late to stop the drastic changes anyway; 

but we are going to have to live with—or die by—these 

changes. It is time to put things together, to consider the 

evidence and logic that is before us.

The need to connect the dots begins with recognition 

of the fundamental, universal ecological pattern rooted 

in the theory and function of the resource buffers: they 

are essential for the maintenance of conditions that will 

ensure—or at least make more likely—the continued survival of the species. For example, the cause of the excess 

build-up of carbon dioxide and near lethal low values 

of oxygen in the Arizona research facility Biosphere 2 

(Severinghaus and others 1994) was probably the failure 

to provide an adequate inorganic buffer that properly 

mimicked Biosphere 1, Planet Earth. Earth’s buffer of 

inorganic carbon contains 99.978 percent of the planet’s 

carbon in the sediments. Our current direct alteration of 

the fragile level of atmospheric carbon dioxide (along 

with methane and ozone) similarly endangers the conditions that could ensure our survival. For three hundred 

years climate was relatively stable and affable demanding only small, acceptable, and challenging fluctuations 

in human activity, ready to explode as it recognized the 

value of its natural resources and exploited them to support the Industrial Revolution. The interactions between 

climatic change and stability, subtle shifts of storm tracks, 

and the development of an agricultural base associated 

with growing population and industrialization are often 

complex as well as unpredictable (Fagan 2000). There 

is little doubt that humans are dramatically changing the 

conditions under which we live.

In fact, the buffers that sustain us—and myriads of 

other species—include the global commons referred to 

by Hardin (1968). To ignore them is to invite disaster. 

It is therefore quite appropriate that it is the commons 

from which we infer a focal pattern and to which we 

may address an innovative environmental management 

scheme. Surely, the most threatening change over which 

we have some control is the reduction in biodiversity, a 

critical buffer. Caused by the shift of carbon to human 

beings and human activities, biodiversity is in need of 

definition in theory, and evaluation in terms of quality 

and quantity so as to be fully understood in its commons 

role and thus capable of being nurtured in this light. 

In addition to direct inroads on the diversity of life on 

the planet, human—and to some degree geologic time 

changes—are severely impacting this all-important buffer. We are not only observing the onset of major climate 

change, but there is a resurgence of diseases (Levins and 

others 1994) that may be associated with the widespread 

uniformity of agricultural and forestry practices including West Nile Virus, avian flu, mad cow disease, Ebola 

virus, cryptosporidium, and giardia, to mention a few. 

Perhaps even AIDS and SARS are reactions of natural 

systems to overpopulation and biodiversity reduction. 

There remains the question of the source of the increased 

carbon for greater human numbers: if from the vast 

inorganic buffer in the sediments, the resultant increase 

in release of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere from increased human activities will promote temporary global 

warming and long-term climate change, ultimately a new 

glacial period. If from the organic pool of wetlands, rain 

forests or coral reefs the biodiversity buffer is directly 

diminished at our peril.

The luxury of conservation extends from the end of the 

Industrial Revolution, when segments of humanity were 

large enough to significantly affect global conditions, to 

the recent past where frequent and major consequences of 

our actions are beginning to strike back. And, as more and 

more comforts of civilization are developed, technology is 

called upon to protect against or reimburse losses from environmental disasters that wreak unprecedented personal, 

societal, and financial damage (Tenner 1997). The imperative of sustainability demands attention. Humankind 

faces serious threats to its otherwise promising current 

civilization because of our own growth, actions, and 

excessive demands on natural resources: resources on 

which we depend and that exhibit the lopsided distribution 

patterns characteristic of natural buffers. The “good life” 

that is the fruit of the Industrial Revolution and western 

civilization’s excessive and often mindless exploitation 

of natural resources is, in the long run, not “good.”

The bottom line: we’re in trouble. Vitousek and others (1997) state unequivocally “humanity’s dominance 

of Earth means that we cannot escape responsibility for 

managing the planet. Our activities are causing rapid, 

novel, and substantial changes to Earth’s ecosystems.” 

Assuming that we wish to resolve the problem and be 

the masters of our future on Earth, there is much to do 

research, education, and effective implementation of 

policies and practices to achieve population control. The 

challenge will be a critical and timely test of the awesome 

potential of globalization.

A Time for Action

First, an international and truly interdisciplinary team 

must be convened to formulate and evaluate fundamental 

questions about environmental assimilative capacities. 

Then, joined by social scientists, effective policy and 

management solutions with high success potential must 

be created. This is not a situation in which to pursue and 

achieve pet goals: this is a matter of survival of the human 

race, not of any one individual, community, hemisphere, 

or nation. This cooperative world-wide agenda may not 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 389

even be feasible: Fagan (2004) points out that “if we’ve 

become a supertanker among human societies, it’s an 

oddly inattentive one. Only a tiny fraction of the people 

on board is engaged with tending the engines. ....” Yes, 

ironically, the Resource Buffer Theory applies to us, 

too. Those that know, however, need to show the way. 

Western civilization’s excess resource users must reduce 

excess use and waste of natural resources, especially 

excessive pollution of the vital resource buffers. It is 

time—and hopefully not too late—to make timely and 

informed choices. To whatever extent we put off action 

by unproductive pondering of the enormity of the task 

and procrastinate on any action, we invite increasing 

potential disaster.

Second, the information from this assemblage—assuming it succeeds in its mission—must be disseminated in an 

unprecedented global education program. A challenging 

part of this effort will be convincing all—especially those 

in developing countries—to listen and understand so as 

to play meaningful and effective roles in the decisionmaking process to secure the future of humans on the 

planet; and those that know and understand the severity 

and enormity of the problem are equally challenged to 

effectively convey the message. The challenge to the 

resource-guzzling western civilization will be most difficult: how to limit resource use while allowing others 

to increase theirs, with an overall net reduction in technological development and resource use. Nothing short 

of this will work, although it is possible that partial steps 

might buy time, which might simultaneously delude us 

into thinking that we are safe. An unlikely alternative 

may be to entrust solutions to that “tiny fraction of the 

people ... engaged with tending the engines.” And, 

interim conditions, whoever implements them and for 

whatever reason, may not be any more pleasant than 

non-human-controlled solutions. A first order of business 

will be to convince all that failure would have disastrous 

consequences—soon, and sooner than we care to think 

about.

Third, we must design, adopt, and implement workable and acceptable strategies that will provide a schedule 

to enhance our ability to deal with the fundamental 

problem: unsustainable human activity. At the current 

rate of agricultural land degradation, and with current 

technology, “in just 42 years there will be sufficient arable land for a population of only 2 billion” say Pimental 

and others (1999), who have revised an earlier estimate 

of the Earth’s carrying capacity down from 2.5 billion to 

2.0 billion, less than one third the present number. Such 

an unprecedented challenge must be accomplished humanely to protect our humanity; it cannot be achieved by 

an elite leadership. And it won’t win popularity contests 

in any case. However, if we wish to have control over 

the future, we must be proactive. Whatever is done must 

be achieved by global communication, cooperation, and 

action. An international Earth Summit on Environmental 

Sustainability might succeed, but not if its focus is the 

oxymoronic “sustainable development” as in the past: 

development is the historic cause of the challenge that 

now confronts us. It is thus important that we are aware 

of lurking pitfalls: efforts to bring resource use and waste 

under control are threatened by long- and widely-held religious beliefs along with ignorance, stupidity, waste, and 

greed. If the latter is a natural characteristic of humans 

(of life?), success might be discouragingly be-yond our 

grasp. We may not obtain the necessary understanding 

anyway, much less support from those who spread terror, 

reflecting their legitimate but derogatory view of how 

western civilization wastes its resources and disproportionately pollutes its buffers. 

In view of widespread terrorism driven in part by 

unequal utilization of resources (as well as persecution, 

poverty, lack of feelings of personal worth or sense of 

community, and lack of hope) there is an ironically disturbing thought: we are already applying the Resource 

Buffer Theory in western civilization. But we’re doing 

it in ways that may ensure western civilization’s collapse: through disproportionate abuse of resources and 

environmental buffers. Developing countries will not be 

convinced of any urgency of action without substantive 

sacrifice by those that have an abundance of resources. 

The best way to convince the world’s underprivileged of 

the seriousness of our mission—the importance of workable sustainability measures—is to acknowledge and act 

to reduce waste of resources and associated pollution of 

environmental buffers. Were we to make serious changes 

in those habits, we might gain essential support in the 

all-important sustainability agenda. One approach with 

high-success potential is Brown’s (2003) suggestions 

of tax- and subsidy-shifts that in-corporate the “honest” 

cost of environmental degradation into supply costs of 

human needs. It provides alternatives that may be adapted 

to meet local and national needs, resources, populations, 

and times; and numerous nations have already applied 

the shift-based approach as a strategy with high degrees 

of success. For example, Iceland has converted from a 

carbon based energy economy to a hydrogen base; Japan 

has invested heavily in solar energy, and Ontario is “phasing out coal.” Tax shifts and setting reasonable prices 

on water and energy are the only sure way in which to 

reduce consumption. This approach may be the best way 

to reduce or eliminate the inexcusable and wasteful use 

of fossil fuels for high-consumption personal transport 

and for vehicles such as racing cars, SUVs, and ATVs. 

The immediacy of the challenge is well expressed by 

McMichael and others (2004):
390 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Addressing sustainability is more than an academic 

exercise. It is a vital response to a rapidly evolving 

crisis and should be at the top of our research agenda. 

The forces that opposed social change for sustainability, 

whether from indifference, incomprehension, or selfinterest, are powerful, and neither individual scientists 

nor isolated scientific disciplines will suffice to change 

understanding policy. Science itself needs to be fully 

engaged in this challenge.

And by Brown (2003), who points out that “we must 

be quick. Our demands on the earth exceed its regenerative capacity by a wider margin each day.”

Finally, assuming that all agree about the significance 

of the pervasive pattern in the universe, humans must find 

ways to incorporate the environmental patterns that sustain us. Proper homage to Sir Francis Bacon implies that 

it would be a good idea to base our resources management 

practices on a strategy he elucidated in 1620: “Nature to 

be commanded must be obeyed.” Finding ways to obey 

the fundamental pattern that we observe throughout 

the Universe in our everyday and long range resource 

management plans is a challenge to which all can find 

creative responses. It represents a major paradigm shift 

of the greatest importance. By adopting shift-based strategies to the natural environment and other innovative 

measures, we might really attain human sustainability. 

It certainly is worth a try.

Conclusions

There are three conclusions. First, the Resource 

Buffer Theory emerges from reflective consideration 

and observation of the characteristics of the abundant 

resources that surround us. Second, among the many 

resource buffers (global commons) available to us, biodiversity—represented by the out-of-line large percentage 

of organic carbon in humans that simultaneously marks 

our runaway numbers—is perhaps the most critical. 

Finally, to assure continued existence of humanoids on 

Earth, we must adopt a paradigm shift from resource and 

buffer abuse to one that attends to the fundamental and 

universal environmental pattern.

In sum, we need to recognize, embrace, and celebrate 

the Resource Buffer Theory that protects and sustains us 

by making it the focal point of our resource management 

policies and practices. A red flag demanding attention 

ought to appear whenever humans impact a resource 

buffer. Noting the limits of existing resources and the 

need to maintain buffers that protect the conditions that 

enable our species to survive should be the new goal of 

conservation. Conservation must address the question: 

How might we emulate the universal environmental pattern in our management strategies and practices? Based 

on sound science, conservation is the cornerstone to sustainability, to survivability. In this fundamental context 

the future of resource-using humans on planet Earth must 

be considered. We must pay attention; and act.

References

Bacon, F., 1620. Novum Organum, bk. 1, aph.

Black, P. E., 1995. “The Critical Role of `Unused’ Resources,” 

Water Resources Bulletin 31(4):589.

Brown, L. R., 2003. “Plan B: Rescuing a Planet under Stress,” 

Renewable Resources Journal 21(3):16.

Dietz, T., E. Ostron, and P. C. Stern, 2004. “The Struggle to 

Govern the Commons,” Science 302:1907.

Fagan, B., 2000. The Little Ice Age: How Climate Made 

History 1300-1850. Basic Books, New York, NY.

Fagan, B., 2004. The Long Summer. Basic Books, New York, 

NY.

Hardin, G., 1968. “Tragedy of the Commons,” Science 162: 

1243.

Karl, T. R., and K. E. Trenberth, 2003. “Modern Climate 

Change,” Science 302:1719, (and see other associated 

articles in the “The State of the Planet” series).

Levins and others, 1994. “The Emergence of New Diseases,” 

American Scientist 82:52.

Lovelock, J., 1988. The Ages of Gaia, Bantam Books, New 

York, NY.

Marsh, G. P., 1874. The Earth as Modified by Human Action, 

Scribner and Sons, New York, NY.

McMichael, A. J., C. D. Butler, and C. Folke, 2004. 

“New Visions for Addressing Sustainability,” Science 

302:1919.

Murchie, G., 1967. Music of the Spheres: The Material 

Universe from Atom to Quasar, Simply Explained, Dover 

Publications, New York, NY.

Odum, E. P., 1989. Ecology and our Endangered Life-Support 

Systems, Sinauer Associates, Inc., Sunderland, MA.

Pimental and others, 1999. “Will humans force nature to 

control their numbers?” Environment, Development, and 

Sustainability 1(1):19-39)

Rowan, L., and Coontz, R., 2003. “Welcome to the Dark Side: 

Delighted to See You,” Science 300:1893

Severinghaus, J. P. and others, 1994. “Oxygen Loss in 

Biosphere 2,” EOS 75(3):33.

Tenner, E. 1997. Why Things Bite Back. Vintage Books, New 

York, NY 431. pp.

Taylor, K., 1999. “Rapid Climate Change,” American Scientist 

87(4):320.

Trefil, J. 1993. “Dark Matter,” Smithsonian 24(3):27.

Vitousek, P. M., H. A. Mooney, J. Lubchenco, J. M. Melillo, 

1997. “Human Domination of Earth’s Ecosystems,” Science 

Volume 277(5325):494-499.

Wantrup, S. V. Ciriacy-, 1951. Dollars and Sense in 

Conservation. Circular 402, California Agricultural 

Experiment Station, College of Agriculture, University of 

California, Berkeley, CA. 39 pp.

Watson, R. T., 2004. “Climate Change: the Political Situation,” 

Science 302:1925.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 391

Introduction

Sustainability can be thought of as effectively managing environmental systems, including ourselves. The 

concept is illustrated in figure 1, which depicts a complex system composed of four dimensions through time: 

economic, technological, ecological, and legal-social. 

(Cabezas and others 2003) The system that results from 

the interaction of these dimensions is shown here as a 

trajectory through state space. The goal of sustainability 

is to keep the system trajectory within a “tunnel” that 

represents desirable conditions through time. The goal 

of sustainability research is to understand what the tunnel boundaries are and how the dimensions interact to 

create the system trajectory. The initial questions to be 

answered include: what are the variables in each dimension; how can they be measured or otherwise accounted 

for; and how do the variables in one dimension relate to 

variables in the other dimensions?

Three of the four dimensions are human-based (only 

the ecological dimension could exist without humans), 

but variables in the economic, technological, ecological, 

and (to some degree) social dimensions are similar in 

that they can be quantified and analyzed using scientific 

methods and mathematical formulas. When dealing with 

the legal aspect of the social dimension, however, science 

and math seem to play no part. How, then can law be 

integrated into a scientific study or mathematical model 

for analysis?

Comparing the dimensions in the context of the disciplines they represent yields the following perspective. 

Economics is the study of how people make choices, 

while social science is the study of what those choices 

are and why people make them. Science and technology 

represent what choices are available--what is physically 

possible given the basic laws of nature. Law is about 

what choices people (as a society) allow themselves to 

make. Thus, law is more malleable and one could question why we include it at all, since we can change it at 

will to serve our purpose.

There are several reasons for including law in our 

sustainability research. Existing law is one of the initial 

What’s Law Got to Do with It? The Relationship of Law 

to Environmental Systems Management and Sustainability 

Research

N. Theresa Hoagland, Attorney and an Environmental Protection Specialist, U. S. 

Environmental Protection Agency, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, 

Cincinnati, OH

Abstract—Legal concepts cannot be described as the area under the curve or in terms 

of equilibrium equations; however, law is one of several dimensions of a complex system that must be included in an interdisciplinary study of sustainability. It is one of the 

initial conditions to be considered in projecting the systems trajectory and it is also a 

constraint on implementation of research findings and recommendations for sustainable 

actions to be taken. Two methods for incorporating law into sustainability research are 

described. One is theoretical and is illustrated by how property rights affect foodweb 

and societal decision-making models. The second is more practical and is illustrated 

by how law affects the implementation phase of a study on stormwater runoff volume 

reduction.

Figure 1. Multidimensional Concept of Sustainability.
392 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

conditions that must be considered in any attempt to 

project the system’s future trajectory. There is a practical 

aspect, as well—the constraints of current law must be 

taken into account to avoid a solution that is theoretically 

satisfying, but has little hope of being implemented. 

Finally, law is itself a complex system and one hypothesis is that we are following systems rules in creating 

our laws without realizing it (perhaps law is not so malleable, after all).

This paper addresses the first two reasons. The next 

section describes how we include law in a foodweb 

model. Following that is a section on the more practical 

aspects of current law as a constraint in the analysis of 

options for reducing stormwater runoff volume. The 

conclusion proposes the next steps to be taken in incorporating law into sustainability research for effective 

environmental systems management.

Foodweb Model

Figure 2 represents a basic foodweb with several 

trophic levels. (Cabezas and others 2004) The system 

is open to energy, but closed to mass and the arrows 

indicate transfers of mass within the closed system. 

This represents the ecological dimension (fig. 1) and the 

variable is mass. (We have added an Industrial Process 

[IP] to the model to account for the mass that is appropriated by humans for its vast infrastructure and non-food 

products).

Figure 3 represents the same foodweb from a legal 

perspective. Here, the variable is not mass, but rights 

attached to the mass (property rights). The conservation of mass still applies, but there is no corresponding 

conservation of rights (in fact, the transfer of mass is immaterial). It is common to have multiple rights attached 

to the same mass. For example, one person (the lessor) 

may have the ownership rights to a parcel of land, while 

another (the lessee) holds the right of possession, and a 

third (the heir) has a right to own the parcel at some time 

in the future. We therefore identify the compartments 

in terms of the type or property they represent. H1, H2, 

and IP are private property and are shown in boxes with 

vertical lines, P2 is government property (shown with 

cross-hatched lines), and H2, P3, H3, and C2 are “commons” (shown with a dotted background) to which no 

rights yet attach—they are free for the taking. C1 (shown 

with horizontal lines) represents a special category. It is 

wild in that no one owns it, but it is valued by society 

and so is protected by the government. (At this point, 

the resource pool is considered commons, but in reality, 

it, too, is an amalgamation of private, public, and commons property).

Once property rights attach to the mass, a basis exists 

for an economic system that determines the value associated with the mass and its transfer. It also becomes 

evident that the foodweb can be divided into domesticated and non-domesticated species because the rules 

for the transfers of mass will be very different for each. 

Transfers of mass associated with the domestic species 

can be modeled according to economic principles (although unlike traditional economic models, since this 

system is closed to mass, there can be no assumption of 

infinite resources or substitutability). Transfers of mass 

between non-domesticated species are governed more by 

biological rules and sometimes by policy decisions.

Thus, with the addition of the legal perspective, the 

Figure 2. Ecological Foodweb. foodweb represents a more realistic picture of current 

Figure 3. Legal Foodweb.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 393

conditions. We can now use it to test various ecological, 

economic, and/or policy scenarios and observe the effect 

on the overall system trajectory.

As an example of how this might translate into a 

model of societal decision-making, consider figure 4. In 

this model, the ecological and technological dimensions 

are considered first. If a desired transfer of mass is not 

physically or technologically possible, the story ends 

there. If, however, it is possible, then society considers 

the economic ramifications. If the transfer of mass is 

profitable or will otherwise have positive social value, 

either the private sector or the government may cause it 

to occur. If, however, society decides against the transfer, 

how it goes about stopping or modifying it depends on 

the type of property involved. (How society makes that 

decision is a function of the political process, not addressed here). In the U. S., the options are greatest if no 

one owns or controls the property. It takes a more effort 

to affect government property, but it is most difficult to 

stop or modify transfers of mass to which private property 

rights attach. Society (through its government) must buy 

the property or pay to use it, or it must impose limits on 

those rights. Limiting rights involves Constitutional issues and is rarely a popular approach. The next section 

on our stormwater volume reduction research project 

illustrates this point.

Stormwater Volume Reduction

The stormwater volume reduction project is testing 

the hypothesis that small best management practices or 

“BMPs” (such as rain gardens) distributed throughout 

a watershed would be ecologically and economically 

superior to centralized stormwater conveyance and storage systems. (Thurston and others 2003). To explore 

the likelihood of success, our interdisciplinary team of 

hydrologists, engineers, ecologists, and attorneys identified four implementation scenarios for using economic 

incentives to encourage landowners to install the BMPs 

on their property. The options are: (1) use the existing 

stormwater fee and credit system in place in many communities; (2) institute a new charge that would be high 

enough to influence behavior; (3) place a mandatory 

limit on stormwater runoff volume, such that a cap and 

trade system could be used; and (4) pay property owners to reduce stormwater runoff volume, using 

an auction system to determine the participants. 

(Parikh and others 2004a) Table 1 ranks these 

scenarios according to the preference of the team 

members (1 being most preferable). A detailed 

discussion of each scenario is beyond the scope 

of this paper; however, Scenario 3 will be used 

to illustrate how current law functions as a constraint to 

be factored into the analysis.

For a legal analysis, we start with a basic premise of 

U.S. law that rights are inherent in or given to the people 

and powers are given by the people to the government to 

protect those rights. (A very real conundrum is that the 

government must sometimes limit the rights of some to 

protect the rights of all). Applying this to Scenario 3, the 

questions can be stated as: does the property owner have 

a right to allow stormwater to run off his/her property (in 

other words, can the mass be transferred to others who 

may not want it)? If so, does the government have the 

power to limit that right?

Figure 4. Societal Decision-Making Model.

Table 1. Ranking of Implementation Scenarios.

Scenario Economic Ecological Legal

Use Existing Fee/Credit System 4 4 1

Create a New Charge 2 2 4

Impose Limit for Cap and Trade 1 1 3

Pay Landowners/Voluntary Auction 3 3 2
394 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Much to the frustration of the scientist or engineer, the 

answer to the first question is that it depends. Stormwater 

is from a naturally occurring phenomenon and rules governing its drainage onto another’s property are considered 

part of state water law. States can vary significantly in 

their laws and state drainage law is a good example of 

this diversity.

Assuming the property owner does have a right to allow the stormwater runoff to occur, the powers side of 

the analysis focuses on whether the government can limit 

that right? In the United States, private property rights are 

very important and receive Constitutional protection, so 

the government must go through several “hoops” to limit 

them. Questions to be answered include: Is the power 

specifically delegated to the Federal Government (such 

that a Federal law like the Clean Water Act could be 

used)? If not, is it specifically prohibited to the States? If 

not, does the State Constitution allow it? Even if it does, 

would the limit violate the due process or equal protection 

guarantees of the U. S. Constitution? If the new limit can 

pass all these hurdles, it may be legal, but landowners 

may still challenge it as the government’s taking private 

property for public use without paying for it.

The point is not to discuss the legal issues, (Parikh 

and others 2004b) but to illustrate that such issues exist and must be taken into account when evaluating the 

potential benefit of pursuing one research agenda over 

another. In this case, our research team chose to devote 

its limited resources to Scenario 4, because it offered 

a more straightforward path to actual implementation. 

As indicated in table 1, Scenarios 2 or 3 may promise 

superior economic or ecological results on paper, but if 

they are unlikely to be implemented in the real world, 

those results will never be realized. By the same token, 

the scenario that is most likely to be implemented from 

a legal standpoint (Scenario 1) is less likely to meet the 

economic or ecological objectives. Thus, by concentrating our efforts on the best compromise, we can maximize 

our research efficiency and hopefully influence sustainability in a very real sense.

Conclusion

“Interdisciplinary research” usually means that more 

than one type of scientist or engineer is involved, but in 

sustainability research, all of the dimensions (economic, 

technological, ecological, and legal-social) are equally 

important and must be represented. Law is typically 

applied, if at all, after the fact by those charged with 

interpretation and implementation of research findings 

and conclusions. Since sustainability is as much about 

the future as the present or past, it is well to remember 

that to a large degree, the future, like law, is made and not 

found. Our sustainability research attempts to integrate 

all of the dimensions within the existing rules of science 

and the existing rules of law.

Future plans include a refinement of the foodweb and 

application of measures, such as Fisher Information to 

various what-if scenarios. (Fath and others 2003). In the 

stormwater volume reduction project, a test case is being 

conducted in a local watershed in which landowners will 

be paid to install BMPs on their property. As time permits, 

a third project will begin to explore the idea of law as a 

complex system—do our rules of law follow the natural 

rules of systems and order to which even inanimate 

systems adhere and if so, what are the ramifications for 

sustainability?

References

Cabezas, H., Pawlwoski, C. W., Mayer, A. L., Hoagland, N. 

T. 2003. Sustainability: Ecological, Social, Economic, 

Technological, and Systems Perspectives, Clean 

Technologies and Environmental Policy, 5, 1-14.

Fath, B.D., Cabezas, H., and C. W. Pawlwoski. 2003. Regime 

Changes in Ecological Systems: An Information Theory 

Approach, J. Theor. Biology, 222 (4), 517-530.

Parikh, P. K., Taylor, M. A., Hoagland, N. T., Thurston, H. W., 

Shuster, W. D. 2004. “At the Intersection of Hydrology, 

Economics, and Law: Application of Market Mechanisms 

and Incentives to Reduce Stormwater Runoff.. Submitted to 

Journal of Environmental Science and Policy, January.

Parikh, P. K., Hoagland, N. T., Clagett, M. P. 2004. Legal 

Issues Surrounding the Use of Economic Incentives to 

Reduce Stormwater Runoff Volume at the Parcel Level, Law 

Review Journal article in preparation, September.

Thurston, H. W., Goddard, H. C., Szlag, D., Lemberg, B. 2003. 

Controlling Stormwater Runoff with Tradable Allowances 

for Impervious Surfaces, Journal of Water Resources 

Planning and Management, Sept/Oct, 409-418.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 395

Introduction

As a general goal, sustainable development is a big 

tent under which all people of good will can discuss 

and debate options for advancing the human enterprise 

without excessive concern over definitions or metrics. In 

contrast, any effort to organize information to advance 

sustainability objectives is immediately weighed down 

with niggling details and debates over scale, scope, and 

system boundaries. Any notion of “sustainability”- if 

there is to be any difference between environmental 

protection as usual and conditions that can be arguably 

defended as sustainable over time - has to be built upon 

empirical limits and definitions of scale and place.

By its nature a “holistic” and multidisciplinary ideal, 

sustainability is a multivariate tangle of scale and issue 

complexity. An effort to establish empirical foundations 

and to assign metrics necessarily entails system boundaries and some measure of reductionism, introducing what 

might appear to be a cross-purpose between the holistic 

ends and reductionist means. This constitutes a challenge 

in devising a methodology to address sustainability as a 

quantifiable outcome while preserving the complex and 

multifarious qualities represented.

For clarity in discussing sustainability objectives, 

sustainability can be thought of as the goal for which we 

are attempting to fix a quantifiable condition or characteristics, and sustainable development is the process of 

achieving it through policy, law, technology, and strategic 

objectives (Clift 2000). Sustainability needs to be first 

characterized as conditions for which some defendable 

criteria are established, and sustainable development 

is then the process whereby some subset of the human 

enterprise is managed to enable the attainment of the 

sustainable conditions. If sustainability is to represent 

an improvement over environmental protection as we 

know it, we need to know what conditions are desirable 

to sustain. Otherwise, in the absence of an identified endpoint, any improvement can be represented as success. 

While this may be all to the good, it does not necessarily 

represent progress toward sustainability, and functionally robs the concept of sustainability of its essential 

distinction.

Definitions of sustainability traditionally subdivide 

the overall goal into environmental, social, and economic dimensions, each with metrics suitable to their 

respective objectives (NRC 1999). Social and economic 

objectives are subject to widely differing value judgments 

with the result being a broad range of desired conditions 

– some conflicting. In contrast, acceptable environmental 

conditions are more easily characterized, as they are 

set essentially by physical and natural laws relating to 

conditions that support life, that can with diligence be 

reasonably ascertained. Environmental condition is as a 

result, better suited to empirical debate and definition, 

and is a logical choice to model an empirical methodology. Social and economic conditions of sustainability, 

while equally essential, are most effectively introduced 

as criteria for selecting sustainable development strategies to meet prescribed ecological conditions.

Discussion

Recognizing that many different approaches have been 

taken to evaluating sustainability strategies, and that in 

some instances methods have been thought to be competitive or mutually exclusive, efforts to examine how these 

approaches relate to one another have been undertaken. 

Robert offers a 5 level framework for planning in complex systems that is helpful for organizing one’s thinking 

so that comparisons of method and strategy can be more 

Establishing Empirical Bases for Sustainability Objectives

Lawrence Martin, Biologist, US EPA Office of Research and Development in the 

Office of Science Policy, Washington, DC

Abstract—The argument is made that sustainability should be construed as measurable environmental conditions, and that sustainable development strategies should be 

considered in terms of how well they contribute to the sustainable condition target. A 

case study of the Chesapeake Bay is presented to illustrate how use of Material Flow 

Analysis (MFA) as a basic component in the proposed sustainability methodology serves 

to coordinate and harmonize information. Observations are presented on the MFASustainability methodology pertaining to its harmonious accord with existing regulatory 

structures and the risk assessment paradigm.
396 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

systematic (Robert 2000). His framework distinguishes 

between actual conditions in the biosphere, goals for 

biosphere conditions, processes for establishing target 

conditions, actions, and tools.

Robert’s framework is simplified for purposes here to 

distinguish simply between sustainable conditions giving 

rise to the idea of empirical endpoints; and the means to 

those ends – programs, technologies, strategies and the 

like, that can only be regarded as more or less contributing to that sustainable condition. With an empirical 

understanding of a sustainable endpoint, methods can 

be inferred to characterize and measure steps necessary 

for achieving the desired condition/s. The methods to 

achieve it can be quantified as to their effectiveness by 

the measurable extent to which they contribute to the 

sustainable condition.

Sustainability endpoints share an overarching purpose 

to quantify conditions suited to preserving life; however, 

context dictates that endpoints vary wildly across scale, 

geography, culture, time and economy. This presents a 

difficulty in assessing the adequacy of, or feasibility of 

sustainable development recommendations using any 

kind of rigid analysis. Though process engineers are making considerable progress nailing down the particulars 

of assessment metrics for “sustainable” technologies 

where mass and energy outcomes are quantifiable and 

thus comparable, sustainability questions run to far more 

complexity (Sikdar 2003). The distinction highlights the 

difference between identifying sustainable development 

strategies leading to sustainable conditions, and optimizing between competing technologies or strategies. In 

the first instance, one determines minimum necessary 

conditions to sustain life based on identified criteria. In 

the second instance, one is optimizing an outcome by 

comparing strategies or technologies using identified 

criteria that may or may not be sufficient to maintain a 

sustainable condition. Linking the outcome of the second 

to the criteria of the first establishes a logical sequence 

for modeling sustainable development practices and 

sustainable conditions.

It is tempting to conclude that addressing sustainability 

across the physical, cultural, and economic geography 

can only be dealt with by keeping analysis scaled locally 

or regionally to reduce complexity. While this is appropriate for a large range of sustainability questions, such 

as “how much water can we consume from this source” 

or “can we develop a sub-division in this aquifer recharge 

area?” it does not work for many other questions. Issues 

such as “is hydrogen a suitable fuel for transportation, 

such that it makes sense to build a national infrastructure 

to support it?” or “Shall we legislate federal guarantees 

for insurance on buildings build on barrier islands?” can 

not be addressed on a local scale. The whole range of 

questions relating to the use of materials (particularly 

persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBTs) in a global 

economy, and nationally legislated (dis)incentives can 

only be addressed on the most comprehensive and national/global scale.

These are more thorny problems of nesting sustainable development strategies (including sustainable 

technologies) so the piece-meal decisions that necessarily constitute the human enterprise can be evaluated 

in light of how well they serve ecological, social and 

economic endpoints (How does this technology serve 

sustainability objectives?). The systems level sustainable condition target is necessary for guiding decisions 

about any undertaking entailing significant resources to 

move the human enterprise toward sustainability. We appreciate that decisions leading to the large commitment 

of resources can result in tremendous shifts of material 

and energy with significant implications for sustainability 

of national and global ecosystems. Failure to shape such 

decisions with an eye to serving sustainable endpoints, 

while recognizing their planet-wide implication is a 

feature of the last millennium and one we can no longer 

afford to indulge. How to motivate this sort of analysis 

and behavior is elusive.

It is desirable that an assessment methodology for 

sustainability be available that allows an analysis to peer 

into the future of an enterprise, and to envision the affects 

to target systems based on reasonable projections. The 

methodology would need to be flexible so that it could 

be tailored to individual applications, but could provide 

comparable information between options. Most importantly it would need to be designed around the availability 

of information, and not be so information intensive as to 

be overly burdensome or expensive to use.

Brunner and Starkl offer a pragmatic overview of “offthe-shelf” decision support methods with an approach 

that holds economic, social, and ecological criteria equal, 

so that a qualitative social criterion such as broad democratic participation in the decision making is considered 

along-side rigorous biogeochemical criteria pertaining to 

ecosystem health (Brunner and Starkl 2004). While useful in its own right, it illuminates by contrast the value in 

formulating a methodology that first identifies sustainable 

conditions in the environment, and then evaluates social 

and economic strategies to meet them. This conforms to 

the model advanced above of first identifying sustainable conditions, and then applying social and economic 

criteria to optimize technology and strategies to attain 

the target conditions.

The challenge is in developing a methodology that 

meets the following criteria:
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 397

Is empirical (transparent process and reproducible) 

and follows a logical and generally agreed-to framework.

Allows flexibility among various applications and 

different scales (multidisciplinary).

Permits connectivity/integration between multiple 

models and methods, as well as comparison between 

strategies to effect sustainable practices.

Captures data useful for characterizing the health 

of the environment, as well as social and economic 

conditions, while minimizing need for new information collection.

Easily adopted by existing social and business institutions.

Proposal

Many strategies to characterize, quantify, and measure 

sustainability have been published, and numerous means 

to organize them proposed. The Material Flow Analysis 

(MFA) is one strategy among many, however, it offers an 

important feature key to characterizing sustainability as 

conceived above. MFA is a quantifiable analytical tool, 

and it describes conditions of material flowing through 

the environment and by extension, the economy – and 

society. Examples include important resource flows 

for national economies, feed stocks for manufacturing 

and production, and naturally, elements/compounds in 

circulation or sinks in natural systems. A MFA yields a 

picture, dynamic through time, capable of characterizing 

any condition or source of stress to the environment, 

economy or society (as construed through demographic 

data) when relationships are properly understood. In a 

model, MFA data can be used to test proposed changes to 

material flows based on various sustainable development 

strategies under consideration (NRC 2003). The MFA is 

well suited as a foundation, or center-piece to support 

an empirical methodology for sustainability, as it meets 

elements of all five criteria identified above.

It is proposed that the MFA serve as both an anchor 

for an empirical sustainability methodology as well as 

an organizing point of origin around which to assemble 

various analytical tools for various sustainability investigations. To describe this process, I begin with several 

assumptions already discussed. First, the environmental 

conditions desirable to sustain are already characterized 

using ecological indicators that can be expressed in terms 

of material flows.

Secondly, sustainable development strategies are 

identified to meet sustainable conditions. Environmental 

criteria (linked to material flows) are identified. Social 

and economic assessment criteria are also introduced at 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

this juncture to fully optimize sustainable development 

options.

Thirdly, a set of analytical and decision support tools 

are selected by decision makers and their technical support teams. There will be substantive variation among 

sustainability inquires leading to a wide variety of tools 

suitable to various investigations. The utility of the MFA 

is once again apparent as a common foundation across 

different assemblages of analytical tools providing a unifying link among different investigations. The extent to 

which formal guidance can be provided by an authoritative body to improve scientific rigor and comparability of 

results across all sustainability investigations is a subject 

for further study, but is predicated on the idea that within 

this approach they will follow in some logical way from 

use of a MFA.

The Chesapeake Bay, centered primarily in Maryland, 

is offered as a case study for application of the MFA 

approach; its indicators of condition being dissolved 

oxygen, water clarity, and chlorophyll a.

A Case Study

The Chesapeake Bay is the largest estuary in the 

United States. It is roughly 200 miles long stretching from 

Havre de Grace MD, to Norfolk, VA, with over 11,600 

miles of shoreline (greater than the entire shoreline of 

the West Coast). The watershed is approximately 64,000 

square miles, and includes all of the District of Columbia 

and parts of six states (Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, 

Delaware, Pennsylvania, and New York).

As with all bodies of water in the United States, the 

goal for the Chesapeake Bay, as provided for in the 

Clean Water Act, is to “restore, and maintain the chemical, physical, and biological integrity” (US Code). The 

US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) provides 

guidance to the States and Tribes for the determination 

of designated uses and assessment criteria, and provides 

oversight to ensure that the States and Tribes designated 

uses and criteria are consistent with the Clean Water Act 

(CWA).

As the Nation’s waters have been increasingly protected from toxic point sources of pollution, the annual 

reporting by EPA and the States (CWA 305-b & 303-d) 

rank excess nutrients and siltation as the two leading 

causes of impairment to water quality. This is true as 

well for the Chesapeake Bay.

In 2000, EPA began publishing CWA section 304(a) 

water quality criteria to assist States and Tribes with addressing problems associated with excess nutrients. EPA 

has recommended that states used its guidance as a starting point for developing refined regional and site-specific 

criteria for the protection and attainment of designated 
398 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

uses. To assist states in the Chesapeake Bay watershed as 

they work to address nutrient pollution as well as sediment 

pollution, EPA Region III issued guidance in 2003 (CWA 

304-a) with a refined set of criteria for the Chesapeake Bay 

(US EPA 2003a). These criteria were developed to protect 

five designated uses which EPA identified and described 

based on the types of habitat that exist in the Bay. The five 

habitats – shallow water, open water, deep water, deep 

channel, and migratory and spawning areas – allow the 

water quality standards to be matched with the plants and 

animals that are adapted to life in those different areas, 

rather than on a single bay-wide standard (Chesapeake 

Bay Program 2001). The water quality criteria selected 

for characterizing and monitoring the Chesapeake Bay 

are dissolved oxygen, water clarity and chlorophyll a. 

The criteria collectively provide the best and most direct 

measures of the effect of excess nutrients and sediment 

pollution on the Bay’s living creatures, thus allowing for 

the direct measure of environmental endpoints.

Placing this information in the context of the proposed MFA methodology, we have established that the 

Chesapeake Bay has been characterized using ecological 

indicators that reflect material flows of nutrients and sediment, per the first assumption identified in the proposal 

above. These criteria can then be directly linked to necessary reductions in the flow of air, land and water based 

loadings of nitrogen, phosphorus and sediments through 

the application of air shed, watershed and tidal-water 

quality Bay models and long-term water quality monitoring data records. Essentially, the conditions necessary 

for attaining the three sets of water quality criteria established for the Chesapeake Bay can be directly related to 

limits on nutrient and sediment loadings. In turn, these 

loadings can be allocated to sources and specific locations 

with the watershed.

Thus, we see how a stated goal, the protection of living 

creatures within the Chesapeake Bay, can be characterized such that specific materials – nitrogen, phosphorus, 

and sediment, can be examined as material flows into and 

through this ecosystem affecting the goal of protecting 

the organisms within the system. The MFAs necessary 

for managing the ecosystem were determined through 

studies linking causes of ecosystem distress to the excess 

of specific materials in the system.

Assumption two dictates that the criteria established 

for sustaining the conditions of the ecosystem (or systems) in question are used to vet strategies for attainment 

of the sustainable conditions. Now, in turn, the MFA 

becomes the foundation for shaping subsequent analysis 

of strategies to limit the flows and thus achieve a sustainable condition for the ecosystem.

It is important to appreciate that the methods employed 

in determining sustainable conditions are qualitatively 

different from those appropriate for optimizing sustainable development strategies. Whereas a sustainable 

condition is fixed (although may be represented as a 

range based on uncertainty), comparing sustainable 

development strategies may employ the many proposed 

sustainability metrics that rely on indices where a “score” 

can be derived. Sustainability metrics include measures 

of material used, waste created, toxicity, water, and energy consumed, and cost, as well as those identified for 

Chesapeake Bay water quality (Sikdar 2003). Scoring 

options with a set of metrics describes moving along 

a linear path toward sustainability. Creating the largest 

positive score and minimizing negatives allows one to 

score a sustainability index that can be comparatively 

evaluated. This is useful for comparisons, but unless a 

sustainable condition has been identified, lacks a context 

for determining adequacy. Without an empirical sustainable condition target, sustainable development metrics 

are unable to answer the question: “Is this a sustainable 

strategy/technology/product?”

Increasingly, ecologists and managers have at their 

command models, tables, reference data, and other empirical information that enables estimates, with known 

levels of uncertainty, to be made for the effect of various 

strategies to control the delivery of pollutants to specific 

ecosystems. As the literature grows the information is 

ever more transferable through models and other expert 

systems to provide decision support to the management 

of any ecosystem of concern. While the models and their 

transferability are far from infallible, ecosystem research 

is making steady gains and developing a comprehensive 

literature to describe ecological condition (Heinz Center 

2002).

In the Chesapeake Bay watershed two models are 

used primarily to evaluate different options for the management of the ecosystem and control of nutrients and 

sediment. The Watershed Model is designed to simulate 

nutrient and sediment loads delivered to the Bay under 

various management scenarios and features a simulation 

of overall mass balance of nitrogen and phosphorus in 

the drainage basin. Input nutrients are simulated to be 

transported to any of three end-points: incorporation into 

plant material, incorporation into the soil, or loading to 

the Bay through river runoff (Donigan and others 1994). 

The Chesapeake Bay Water Quality Model features a 3-

dimensional equation of the water column simulating the 

movement (and barriers to movement) of the three criteria 

for Bay water quality: dissolved oxygen, water clarity, 

and chlorophyll a (Wang and Johnson 2000). Together, 

the models are used to characterize the movement of 

nutrients and sediment into the Bay and their effect on 

the environmental criteria used to assess the sustainability of the water quality and living creatures in the five 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 399

different designated uses (or habitats). Managers and 

decision makers equipped with this information are able 

to consider options to reduce the level of pollutants flowing into the Bay using various decision assistance tools. 

Checks against field monitoring data show deviation in 

the models from actual conditions, and consequently 

they are being refined. The targets for sediment and 

nutrient runoff into the Bay, newly established to meet 

the condition targets are 4.5 M tons/year for sediment, 

87,500 tons for nitrogen, and 6400 tons for phosphorus 

(Chesapeake Bay Program 2003). States are using these 

goals to further develop and hone strategies for reducing 

sediment and nutrients into waterways.

Germane to assumption three, EPA’s methodology 

built around the MFA characterizes other tools that can 

usefully be employed to use the MFA data in subsequent 

analysis to inform the sustainability goal/question. EPA 

Region III and the National Center for Environmental 

Economics identified additional analytical tools to round 

out the assessment of different pollution management 

scenarios on Bay water quality employing socioeconomic 

criteria (US EPA 2003b). Using data and assumptions 

established in the literature, EPA provides estimates of 

the annual cost of achieving controls based on the water 

quality criteria using best management practices. EPA 

then populated a socioeconomic model to determine 

the effects of various management scenarios, such as 

economic growth and revenues, employment, income, 

and investment. Selection of these tools was based on 

commonly held expertise informed by empirical information describing the effect of different management 

scenarios on the material flows of nutrients and sediment 

in the watershed.

A presentation of data resulting from the assemblage 

of models and other analytical tools is not possible within 

the space limitations of this paper; however, it should be 

known that as public information they receive rigorous 

scrutiny from advocacy groups and affected parties of 

all stripe. The constructive engagement of the public 

with expert information is a critical dimension of any 

sustainability initiative. Means to organize public values 

and recommendations into the decision making process 

is acknowledged to be an essential element of a sustainable development.

Observations

Sustainability Objectives Can Be 

Empirical

If you don’t know where you are going any path will 

take you there - to paraphrase one of Carroll’s creatures 

in his tale “Alice in Wonderland.” While developing 

metrics to compare various sustainable development 

strategies for general conservation and toxicity purposes 

is necessary, it is not sufficient. The identification of a 

sustainable condition as a target is necessary to determine 

sufficiency of a sustainable development strategy. Using 

the MFA approach requires first parsing the scale issue 

to determine if the methodology is oriented toward a 

discrete place, such as with the Chesapeake Bay example 

above, or if it must extend to an unbounded (or global) 

geographic assessment, such as would be the case when 

considering persistent, bioaccumulative toxic substances. 

Following a determination of suitable scale to address the 

sustainability question, an investigation or set of inquiries 

is structured to yield identification of a suitable MFA that 

will characterize a flow/s relevant to characterizing the 

conditions of sustainability in the system under question. 

This phase of the methodology development will yield an 

empirical sustainability target condition. The next phase 

of the methodology development will be to characterize 

and assemble the decision support tools that will enable 

an assessment of sustainable development strategies for 

attaining the target condition.

The US Environmental Protection Agency’s Science 

Advisory Board, an independent scientific review board 

for EPA, proposed a process very much like that described here in their 2000 publication “Toward Integrated 

Environmental Decision Making.” Asked by EPA to 

update their groundbreaking report “Reducing Risk”(US 

EPA 1990) the SAB formed a committee with over fifty 

additional Ph.D.s to address the general question of how 

to update and extend the thinking about how science can 

best inform the decision making process (USEPA 2000). 

The integrated environmental decision making (IED) 

framework proposed by the SAB relies heavily on establishment of goals, use of the risk assessment paradigm 

(NRC 1983) and comparison of possible management 

scenarios by analyzing decision criteria. Key in making 

the assertion that the SABs IED is comparable to the 

sustainability methodology proposed here is the phrase 

repeated throughout their publication: “analysis of the 

economic and societal consequences of various options 

is an important aspect of options analysis.” SAB makes 

the leap from environmental decision making to sustainability through asserting the necessity of including social 

and economic dimensions in the analysis of management 

options. In addition, I propose only that the MFA plays a 

key and critical role in organizing information essential 

to determining ecological condition.

The similarity to SAB’s IED is important because the 

IED was viewed by the SAB scholars as “the next step” 

in improving environmental decision making. SAB’s 

first of ten recommendations was “EPA should continue 
400 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

development of integrated, outcomes-based environmental protection, while maintaining the safeguards 

afforded by the current system.” To this I add that the 

established regulatory process for environmental protection is a foundation upon which empirical sustainability 

can be built. Laws may need to be amended, and public 

process greatly enhanced with requirements for broader 

social assessments, but the basic building blocks of fact 

finding, scientific research, regulation setting, and voluntary compliance are sound footings on which to build 

sustainability.

An Empirical Approach to Setting 

Sustainability Objectives is a Seamless 

Extension of The Existing Regulatory 

Process and Approach to Environmental 

Management

As was illustrated with the example of the Chesapeake 

Bay, existing statutory approaches to protecting the 

Bay environment (ecosystems) have been employed to 

establish an empirical understanding of the conditions 

necessary to protect the habitat of organisms considered 

to be indicators of the sustainability of the Bay’s health. 

This approach arises directly from the law governing 

US water quality and the flexibility afforded the EPA 

in working with the States to tailor the law to localized conditions. Another example is implementation of 

the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) provision of 

the Clean Water Act which permits the EPA to look at 

total limits to a receiving waters capacity for absorbing 

pollutants in setting facility effluent permits, and thus 

enabling a ratcheting down of permitted pollution below 

effluent standards otherwise allowed. These examples 

illustrate that the use of existing mandates and regulatory stratagems enable the determination of empirical 

sustainability objectives. Only the means for compulsory 

attainment are not in place, however they represent nothing more than stricter standards.

The Risk Assessment Paradigm Offers 

a Constructive Platform from Which to 

Establish an Empirical Foundation for 

Sustainability

US EPA’s policy on the use of human health and 

ecological risk assessment reflects growing reliance in 

this paradigm for ensuring a sound scientific foundation for environmental protection and regulation. The 

development of uniform guidelines for risk assessment, 

as formulated over the past 20 years, has yielded rigorous 

techniques for analyzing threats to human and ecological 

health that can be harnessed for examining how to also 

optimize them. The use of risk assessment, pioneered for 

health applications at EPA, has been adapted for use in 

determining risk to various features in ecosystems and 

choosing the best actions to protect them. Ecological risk 

assessment is a process to collect, organize, analyze and 

present scientific information for use in making decisions 

about environmental protection priorities. This is performed by evaluating the likelihood that adverse affects 

are occurring (or may occur). Risk assessment techniques 

provide a basis for comparing, ranking, and prioritizing 

risks, and estimating ecological effects as a function of 

exposure to stress in the environment – important functions embraced by SAB’s EID. The function of a risk 

assessment in the MFA-based sustainability methodology 

is to ensure that the materials selected are in fact critical to 

understanding the function and health of the target system. 

In the Chesapeake Bay, selection of chlorophyll a, water 

clarity (or turbidity) and dissolved oxygen was based on 

substantial research showing correlation to nutrient and 

sediments loads to the Bay. Under circumstances less well 

substantiated, risk assessment tools provide a means to 

conduct a sensitivity analysis of materials being used to 

target sustainable conditions in a system, and to ensure 

that they will accurately reflect system health. A risk assessment to identify significant anthropogenic stressor/s in 

the Waquoit Bay demonstrated the utility of this approach 

(Serveiss and others 2004).

EPA supported the application of risk assessments to 

five pilot watersheds to ascertain the value of the risk 

paradigm to watershed management. In a report analyzing the use of ecological risk assessment methods for 

watershed protection it was found that watershed management benefits from the use of the formal, scientifically 

defensible methods of risk assessment by providing a 

process to help people examine their assumptions and 

conclusions, and to document their findings. The risk 

assessment framework is particularly valuable when addressing problems caused by multiple and non-chemical 

stressors (Eastern Research Group 1998).

Risk assessment principles can, be applied to provide 

insights on monitoring data collection, how to organize 

data, or formulate a problem. The application of this process for identifying sustainable conditions and evaluating 

sustainable development strategies for meeting them is 

straight forward, consistent with the use of MFAs, and 

further illustrates how existing means for environmental 

protection can be employed to effect the identification of 

sustainable condition objectives.

The Quality of Information, and Its 

Intensity, is Subject to Challenge

Information quality in any enterprise with claims to 

an empirical foundation is fair game for challenge. This 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 401

is especially true in characterizing the health of ecosystems where each place is unique, variables are virtually 

infinite, and the science is far from unanimous. Until 

the present, government efforts to discern the weight of 

evidence followed the often messy path of scientific discovery relying on expert judgment – with that subject to 

the imprimatur of prestigious associations. This is a less 

certain environment today with the promulgation of data 

quality rules by the Office of Management and Budget 

(Weiss 2004). Scientific certainty is not a luxury often 

associated with advanced ecological research. Although 

the legal record on implementation of the Data Quality 

Law is still inchoate, it could undermine the use of MFA 

and related analytical tools to define sustainability objectives as a result of too great an uncertainty associated with 

the data. A consideration of the data intensity associated 

with bringing a measure of empirical rigor to setting 

sustainability objectives is also a reasonable concern. 

Recognizing that even perfect information may not carry 

the day in decision making, and that political (including 

popular democracy) and economic considerations may 

overshadow scientific information, it is fair to ask what 

level of resources is practical to derive empirical sustainability objectives. These questions should help inform 

future explorations of this proposal.

Summary

Sustainability is a desired endpoint requiring a degree 

of planning to achieve, and thus, societal coordination 

of the type afforded by government is unavoidable. The 

MFA-Sustainability methodology is not proposed as a 

shortcut to understanding sustainability; rather, it is an 

organizing methodology useful for coordinating empirical information to define sustainability and compare 

options in the contexts of place and identified risk. There 

is a need to make sustainability an empirical condition 

respecting of the biogeochemical conditions of a suitably scaled region. Any other approach to characterizing 

sustainability is subject to changing definitions and is 

difficult to defend empirically. The power that comes 

with designing empirical bases for determination of 

sustainable conditions and sustainability strategies is 

necessary to optimize the clarity and persuasive power of 

sustainability recommendations, and to ensure that policy 

is systematic and transparent. Because of the qualities 

inherent in the MFA it is presented as a core investigative 

tool for refining an empirical sustainability methodology 

oriented toward identifying and prioritizing actions to 

meet sustainability goals.

There is still a prodigious amount of study necessary to refine an approach to developing a MFA-based 

methodology for characterizing sustainability as a measurable condition (or outcome). Important considerations 

include the cost-effectiveness of the methodology, data 

quality constraints, and available means to build or access 

material flow data-bases. The NRC study recommends a 

national body to collect and organize the data.

Perhaps most important is to recognize that existing strategies employed by governments to protect 

environmental quality, such as regulation and the risk 

assessments that underlie them, can be harnessed to serve 

the purposes of defining sustainable conditions and to 

assessing the relative merit of sustainable development 

strategies for attaining them. Consideration of where 

existing environmental law enables pushing the envelope 

toward sustainability provides fertile ground for further 

exploring the feasibility of this approach.

References

American Institute of Chemical Engineers, 2000 “Development 

of Baseline Metrics for Sustainable Development,” Center 

for Waste Reduction Technology, published to the Internet 

@ http://www.aiche.org/cwrt/pdf/BaselineMetrics.pdf.

Brunner, N. & Starkl, M., 2004 “Decision Aid Systems for 

Evaluating Sustainability: A Critical Survey,” The Journal 

of Cleaner Production, Vol. 10, p.441.

Chesapeake Bay Program, 2001, “Bay Program Unveils 

Draft Criteria for Clean Bay,” Bay Journal Vol. 11 no. 5, 

Jul/Aug.

Chesapeake Bay Program, 2003, Press Release: “Bay Program 

Partners Adopt New Innovative Approach to Restoring 

Water Quality in Chesapeake Bay” April 15 (http://www.

chesapeakebay.net/info/pressreleases/waterquality/sediment_criteria_release_041503.pdf).

Clift, R., 2000 “Forum on Sustainability,” Clean Products and 

Processes, Vol. #2, #1, pg. 67.

Donigan, J.S. et al, 1994 “Watershed Model Application 

to Calculate Bay Nutrient Loadings: Final Findings and 

Recommendations”, US EPA Chesapeake Bay Program, 

Annapolis, MD.

Eastern Research Group, 1998 “Problem Formulation 

Synthesis Report: Lessons Learned from Five Watershed 

Case Studies”. EPA/ORD Work Assignment # 97-09 under 

contract #68-D5-0028. Lexington, MA.

Heinz III, H. John Center for Science, Economics, and the 

Environment, 2002 “The state of the nation’s ecosystems; 

measuring the lands, waters, and living resources of the 

United States,” Cambridge University Press, New York, 

NY.

National Research Council, 1983 “Risk Assessment in the 

Federal Government: Managing the Process,” National 

Academy Press, Washington, DC.

National Research Council, 1999 “Our Common Journey: A 

Transition Toward Sustainability,” National Academy Press, 

Washington DC.

National Research Council, 2003 “Materials Count: The Case 

for Material Flows Analysis,” National Academy Press, 

Washington DC.
402 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Robert K-H, 2000 “Tools and concepts for sustainable development, how do they relate to a framework for sustainable 

development and to each other?” The Journal of Cleaner 

Production, Vol. 8, no. 3, p.253.

Serveiss, V.B and others, 2004 “Using Ecological Assessment 

to Identify the Major Anthropogenic Stressor in the Waquoit 

Bay Watershed, Cape Cod, Massachusetts”, Environmental 

Management, Vol. 33, No. 5 pp. 730-740.

Sikdar, S.K., 2003 “Sustainable development and sustainability 

metrics”, AIChE J., vol. 49, no. 8, p.1928.

US Code Title 33 Chapter 26, (Clean Water Act).

US EPA, 1990 “Reducing Risk: Setting Priorities and 

Strategies for Environmental Protection,” EPA-SAB-ED90-021, Science Advisory Board.

US EPA, 2000 “Toward Integrated Environmental DecisionMaking” US, EPA-SAB-ED-00-011, Science Advisory 

Board.

US EPA, 2003 “Ambient Water Quality Criteria for Dissolved 

Oxygen, Water Clarity and Chlorophyll a for the Chesapeake 

Bay and its Tidal Tributaries,” Region III.

US EPA, 2003 “Economic Analysis of Nutrient and Sediment 

Reduction Actions to Restore Chesapeake Bay Water 

Quality,” Region III.

Wang, H.V. and B.H. Johnson, 2000 “Validation and application 

of the second generation three-dimensional hydrodynamic 

model of the Chesapeake Bay,” Journal of Water Quality 

and Ecosystem Modeling I (1-4): 51-90.

Weiss, R., 2004 “‘Data Quality” Law Is Nemesis Of 

Regulation” Washington Post, August 16.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 403

Introduction

Ecological systems and processes provide the biological interactions underlying ecosystem health and 

viability. Social and economic infrastructures and 

processes provide the framework or context in which 

rangeland use and management occurs and rangeland 

health increases or deteriorates. All these systems and 

processes interact and feedback on each other over 

time and space. To focus only on ecological aspects of 

rangeland use, management, and sustainability is to look 

at an incomplete picture. Likewise, the picture would be 

incomplete if one looked only at economic aspects of 

use, management, and sustainability. The latter has been 

recognized in recent years (McCollum and others [1993] 

summarize the arguments and propose one solution). In 

order to adequately assess and monitor rangeland sustainability, an integration of ecologic, economic, and social 

perspectives is needed.

Ecologic, Economic, and Social Considerations for 

Rangeland Sustainability: An Integrated Conceptual 

Framework

Daniel W. McCollum, economist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

Fort Collins, CO

H. Theodore Heintz, Jr., economist, US Dept of the Interior and Council on Environmental 

Quality, Washington, DC

Aaron J. Harp, self-employed sociologist, Ann Arbor, MI

John A. Tanaka, economist, Eastern Oregon Agricultural Research Center, Union, OR

Gary R. Evans, College of Natural Resources, Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State 

University, Northern Virginia Center, Alexandria, VA

David Radloff, Sustainable Development, State & Private Forestry, USDA Forest Service, 

Washington, DC

Louis E. Swanson, Chair, Dept. of Sociology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

William E. Fox, III, rangeland ecologist, Texas Water Resources Institute, Texas A&M 

University, College Station, TX

Michael G. “Sherm” Karl, Inventory and Monitoring Specialist with the Bureau of Land 

Management, Colorado State Office, Lakewood, CO

John E. Mitchell, rangeland scientist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research 

Station, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—Use and sustainability of rangelands are inherently linked to the health and 

sustainability of the land. They are also inherently linked to the social and economic 

infrastructures that complement and support those rangelands and rangeland uses. 

Ecological systems and processes provide the biological interactions underlying ecosystem health and viability. Social and economic infrastructures and processes provide the 

framework or context in which rangeland use occurs and continues. All these systems and 

processes interact and feedback on each other over time and space. To look at rangeland 

sustainability exclusive of any of the three basic components, ecologic, economic, and 

social, is to look at an incomplete picture. Such an incomplete picture misinforms and 

misguides decision makers as they seek sustainable management. This paper proposes 

a conceptual framework providing for interactions between ecologic, economic, and 

social aspects of rangeland use and sustainability. While the specific example relates to 

rangelands, the framework is generalizable to any natural resource.
404 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

An Overview of the 

Framework

This framework links ecological factors and social/economic factors related to rangelands. In Tier 

1 (fig. 1), the world is categorized into: (1) Current 

Biophysical Conditions (of air, water, soils, plants/animals, minerals), (2) Natural Resource Capital (the stocks 

of total biomass—including both plants and animals), 

(3) Social Capacity & Economic Capital (consisting of 

economic assets & liabilities and social opportunities & 

constraints), and (4) Current Human Condition (values 

and norms, income, health, security, etc.). The four boxes 

are acted upon by processes, represented by the large 

downward arrows. There are ecological and natural resource processes. These consist of reproduction, growth, 

death, decomposition; and include water cycles, nutrient 

cycles, carbon cycles, succession, migration, adaptation, 

etc. On the other side are social and economic processes. 

These consist of demand, investment, depreciation, 

management, social regulation, production, consumption, social interaction, institutional processes, etc. The 

processes change the conditions and capitals existing at 

time t0 and result in a new set of conditions and capitals 

at time t1.

Integration of ecological factors and social/economic 

factors is introduced into the framework as the horizontal 

arrow linking “ecological & natural resource processes” 

and “social & economic processes.” This represents an 

explicit recognition that ecological and natural resource 

processes affect and are affected by social and economic 

capitals/capacities and conditions, and by social and 

economic processes. Likewise, social and economic 

processes affect and are affected by biophysical conditions and natural resource capital, and by ecological and 

natural resource processes.

A Tier 2 framework (fig. 2) details those interactions, 

focusing on three primary points of contact: (1) extraction, (2) waste discharge, and (3) ecosystem services. 

Humans extract natural resources. Extracted resources 

are used by humans and affect biophysical conditions and 

natural resource stocks. In the process of extraction, processing, and use of those resources, wastes are generated 

and discharged. Ecosystem goods and services are generated that are used by humans (whether they are aware of 

the ecosystem goods and services they use or not). One 

set of such ecosystem services involves detoxifying and 

decomposing waste discharges. Other ecosystem services 

include climate regulation, soil formation, biodiversity, 

among many others.

A Tier 3 framework proposes indicators with which to 

assess and evaluate rangeland condition and sustainability over time. Those indicators are represented in both the 

Tier 1 and Tier 2 frameworks (figs. 1 and 2) by the box 

labeled “Evaluation of Sustainability,” on the right side 

of the diagrams. Indicators provide measurements of key 

variables that inform as to the condition and functioning 

of relevant stocks and flows.

Further Details on the 

Framework

Natural Resource Capital

The intent is to capture the stock of resources existing in the biophysical environment. Included in Natural 

Figure 1. Tier 1 Rangeland 

Sustainability Evaluation 

Framework.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 405

Resource Capital is the total biomass present in the 

ecosystem—both plants and animals.

Current Biophysical Conditions

This includes the state and status of all the biota 

comprising rangelands, as well as the environmental conditions that influence and are influenced by the biota—in 

other words, the rangeland ecosystem. This includes all 

the biotic and abiotic entities that are specifically identified as comprising natural resource capital—plus others. 

Into this category would go things like air and water 

pollution, holes in the ozone layer, etc., along with the 

level of biodiversity of the rangeland ecosystem, conditions of the soils, etc.

Social Capacity and Economic Capital

This category includes the traditional economic notion 

of capital—all the assets and liabilities present in the 

economy, from buildings and machinery to inventories of 

raw materials to the productive capacity of the economy. 

The category is broadened to include the idea of social 

capital or social capacity. This represents the opportunities and constraints afforded by the existing organization 

of society. Included in this category are people’s or community social and support networks, and the institutional 

structures of society—the legal system, the education 

system, etc. It also includes human populations. This 

is intended to represent a social and economic stock or 

capacity present in the society.

Current Human Condition

This box represents the state and status, or condition 

of people and society—human well-being. It includes 

values and norms present in the society. It includes 

economic conditions—employment and unemployment, income distribution within society, and growth 

rate of the economy, etc. It also includes broader social 

conditions—poverty, educational status, health status, 

security, etc. Another aspect of human well-being in this 

category would be conditions of society in terms of social 

interactions, community cohesiveness, social integration 

and stratification.

Figure 2. Tier 2 Framework – Rangeland Example.
406 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The Ecological Processes

This series of boxes represents all the processes that 

produce biomass, either by primary production such 

as photosynthesis, or by consumption and conversion 

of other biomass. It also includes the variety of processes that continuously cycle the finite elements that 

are entrained in the biologically active layer of the earth. 

They include the carbon cycle, water cycle, and nutrient 

cycles. The processes are performed or mediated by the 

rangeland biota, and they in turn set the conditions for 

the functioning of the biotic world. This cycling of matter 

results in some of the natural resource stocks present in 

the next period in time.

Other processes in this series of boxes include dynamics like succession, migration, adaptation, and 

competition; they include soil erosion and genesis. 

Disturbances like flood, drought, fire, etc. are envisioned as one of the series of ecological processes. As 

indicated by the double-headed arrows on the diagram, 

the ecological processes interact and feedback on each 

other. The processes are driven and controlled by current 

biophysical conditions, and the outcomes become the 

“new” current biophysical conditions in the succeeding 

time period.

The ecological processes are influenced and modified 

by various intentional human activities such as extraction of products like range forage and other biomass and 

water; and investment in management practices. They are 

also influenced by unintended consequences of human 

actions such as the release of waste products into the 

environment or by careless behaviors, etc.

The Social and Economic Processes

Economic processes include production of goods and 

services, demand, investment, consumption or use of 

goods and services, trade, etc. Production of goods and 

services is broadly conceived, so it includes “household 

production” as well as manufacturing processes. For 

example, people use natural resources and access to 

natural resources to produce a variety of recreation and 

leisure goods that then affect human condition. Also 

included are management and social regulation. These 

are envisioned to include social policy and management 

of natural resources, among other things. Just as there 

are population processes on the ecological side of the 

framework, so too are there population processes on 

the social/economic side of the framework. These processes include birth, death, migration, aging, morbidity, 

etc. Finally, there are social processes, which include 

social integration, stratification, extra-local ties, social 

differentiation, governance, etc. These are the processes 

that form the organization of society. Taken together, all 

these processes result in “Social Capacity & Economic 

Capital” and “Current Human Condition” at the next 

point in time.

The Interactions between 

Ecologic, Economic, and Social 

Factors

A shortcoming of many previous efforts to address 

natural resource sustainability has been the failure to 

adequately consider social and economic factors at all; 

and when they have been considered there has been 

no integration of social and economic considerations 

with ecological considerations. A typical effort to assess rangeland sustainability might include an analysis 

of relevant ecological factors. Toward the end of the 

effort there might be recognition that there should be 

some discussion of social and economic factors so a 

(separate) social/economic analysis is tacked on at the 

end. No real thought is given to the dynamic two-way 

interaction between ecological factors related to use 

and sustainability and social/economic factors. That is 

not to say that this effort and this conceptual framework solve all those problems. Rather, the Sustainable 

Rangelands Roundtable (SRR) and the efforts represented by this conceptual framework are a beginning. 

From its beginning, the SRR recognized the importance 

of thoroughly integrating ecological factors, social factors, and economic factors. All three are important to a 

well-informed assessment of rangelands and rangeland 

sustainability; and one cannot stand without the other 

two. Because it represents only a beginning, this conceptual framework and the thinking behind it are still 

evolving. By no means is this paper the final word on 

the subject.

We envision three primary points of interaction: extraction, waste discharge, and ecosystem services.

Extraction

In the case of rangelands the traditional extraction 

occurring is the removal of forage by livestock and 

wildlife. But, these are not the only extractions going on. 

Various plants are extracted from rangeland ecosystems 

for a variety of purposes. There are herbal and medicinal 

uses of some rangeland plants, there are landscaping 

uses, among others. Water is extracted from rangeland 

ecosystems for a variety of uses such as irrigation and 

human consumption. Animals are extracted by hunters and others. Such extracted products are demanded 

by people and enter into the production of goods and 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 407

services. From there, they are used, consumed or traded 

and contribute to Social Capacity and Economic Capital 

or to the Current Human Condition. Also, as part of the 

extraction process, biomass is removed affecting the 

stock of Natural Resource Capital. Byproducts of extraction and the extraction process factor into the Biophysical 

Condition through such mechanisms as soil erosion, 

succession of species, etc.

Beyond those relatively straightforward extractions 

from rangeland ecosystems, there are extractions of 

habitat and rangeland itself. Such extractions are a primary way in which humans directly impact rangeland 

ecosystems. Some extractions are positive or neutral as 

far as their effect on the environment; others have negative effects. Increasing and migrating human populations 

encroach on rangeland. Use changes from grazing and 

open space to residential development and subdivision. 

Results include fragmentation of habitat, basic changes 

in the composition of species as development occurs and 

landscaping replaces many of the native plants, exotic 

and invasive species might be introduced and spread, and 

native wildlife species might become pests and nuisances 

leading to their removal from parts of the ecosystem, 

among other effects.

Another form of extraction is related to recreation and 

“spiritual” or “aesthetic” services. Natural environments 

produce services that are extracted not as commodities but as perceptions or opportunities. Such extracted 

services affect the human condition in ways such as 

experiences of wonder and majesty, scenic beauty, or as 

a backdrop to life activities. They can also enter into a 

household production process and contribute to leisure 

and recreation activities. This overlaps with “ecosystem 

services,” which are discussed below.

Waste Discharge

Wastes are discharged into the ecosystem at several 

points and from several processes. Such wastes can have 

both positive and negative effects. We have already alluded to the byproducts of extraction. Grazing animals 

discharge wastes as they digest forage. Extraction of 

plants might leave “slash piles,” such as one might expect 

at the interface between rangeland and forest ecosystems. 

In some cases, those wastes support microorganisms 

and other life cycles. In other cases, they lead to water 

pollution and adverse effects on human and non-human 

species, or they increase the likelihood of disturbances 

like fire. Waste discharge can contribute to the spread of 

invasive species, among other effects.

Perhaps the greater effects of waste discharge, though, 

result from humans and human use of goods and services. 

In this vein would be discharges from productive and 

manufacturing processes, wastes created by consumption 

and use of goods and services such as discarded packaging and other byproducts of human society. Some of 

those wastes get recycled back into productive processes 

while others get released into the ecosystem in a variety 

of ways and forms. Those wastes are acted upon by (or 

interrupt and otherwise alter) natural processes, and 

result in changed conditions of Natural Resource Stock 

and Biophysical Condition.

A more subtle effect of human society that might 

be included in a broad conception of waste discharges 

is human behavior or byproducts of human behavior 

that adversely affect the environment. Included in this 

vein would be behaviors such as burning fossil fuels, 

introduction and spread of exotic and invasive species, 

among others. Also included might be careless or malicious behaviors that result in environmental or ecosystem 

damage. While it could be argued that these are not truly 

“waste discharges,” they are byproducts of society that 

affect ecosystems.

Ecosystem Services and Use of 

Ecosystem Services

Broadly defined, ecosystem services refer to a wide 

range of conditions and processes through which natural 

ecosystems, and the species that are part of them, help 

sustain and fulfill human life. These services maintain 

biological diversity and the production of ecosystem 

goods, such as seafood, wild game, forage, timber, biomass fuels, natural fibers, and many pharmaceuticals, 

industrial products, and their precursors. In addition to 

the production of goods, ecosystems support life through 

such things as: purification of air and water, mitigation 

of droughts and floods, generation and preservation 

of soils and renewal of their fertility, detoxification 

and decomposition of wastes, pollination of crops and 

natural vegetation, control of many agricultural pests, 

protection from the sun’s ultraviolet rays, partial stabilization of climate, opportunities for recreation and leisure 

activities, provision of aesthetic beauty and intellectual 

stimulation that lift the human spirit, among others 

(Daily and others n.d.). Many ecosystem goods enter 

into our framework through extraction and productive 

processes, as alluded to above. The primary focus of 

this “process/interaction box” is to capture those services not explicitly entering by way of extraction and 

productive processes—such as those listed above as 

contributing to life support. These ecosystem services 

are used by humans, whether they know it or not, and 

contribute to the Human Condition.

Obviously, ecosystem services also have feedback 

mechanisms to the ecological side of the framework. 
408 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

We recognize those feedbacks, but include them in the 

ecological processes such as decomposition, soil genesis, 

nutrient cycles, water cycles, carbon cycles, etc.

Completing the Framework: 

Tier 3

The stated purpose of the SRR, and the context in 

which this conceptual framework was generated, is to 

develop and refine indicators of sustainability, based on 

social, economic, and ecological factors, to provide a 

framework for national assessments of rangelands and 

rangeland uses. Hence, completion of the framework 

requires Tier 3. Tier 3 is a set of indicators covering 

five criteria: (1) Conservation and Maintenance of Soil 

and Water Resources of Rangelands; (2) Conservation 

and Maintenance of Plant and Animal Resources of 

Rangelands; (3) Maintenance of Productive Capacity 

on Rangelands; (4) Maintenance and Enhancement of 

Multiple Economic and Social Benefits to Current and 

Future Generations; and (5) Legal, Institutional, and 

Economic Framework for Rangeland Conservation and 

Sustainable Management. These indicators are intended 

to provide measures of key variables that will inform and 

facilitate monitoring and periodic assessment of the condition and functioning of rangeland ecosystems over time.

The indicators associated with each of these criteria 

are shown in figure 3. Further information and descriptions of the indicators can be found in a special issue 

of Rangeland Ecology and Management (formerly the 

Journal of Range Management) forthcoming in 2005. 

That special issue is comprised of papers by Mitchell 

Figure 3. SRR Criteria and 

Indicators for Sustainable 

Rangelands.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 409

and others, Karl and others, Joyce and others, Evans and 

others, McCollum and others, and Hamilton and others. 

Further refinement and testing of those indicators will 

occur over time. Like this conceptual framework, work 

on the indicators is an evolving process.

Absent from Tiers 1 and 2 is any notion of scale, either spatial or temporal. Rangeland ecosystems can be 

considered at several spatial scales. One might think in 

terms of a particular river drainage. Alternatively, one 

could think of rangelands at the national scale; or anywhere in between the two. Life histories of the various 

biota are highly diverse, so that significant changes in 

natural resource capital occur with very different frequencies, from years to decades to centuries. Issues of scale 

become important in Tier 3 when one begins to develop 

and collect data on indicators.

Discussion and Conclusions

We have laid out a set of basic ecological processes 

that act upon and maintain or alter rangeland ecosystems. 

We have also laid out a set of basic social and economic 

processes that act upon and maintain or alter people and 

communities. On the surface, there are some interactions between the two—economic processes depend 

on rangeland ecosystems for some raw materials, some 

people depend on rangeland and rangeland products for 

their livelihood—but the two components are largely 

independent. If that’s all we did, we would be like everyone else—nice frameworks, but tell us something we 

don’t already know.

The contribution of this effort is in the integration of 

the ecologic component and the social and economic 

components. Three primary points of interaction were 

suggested—three points of integration between ecologic, 

economic, and social factors related to rangeland sustainability. Human impacts on the condition of the ecosystem 

are filtered through ecological processes. Ecosystem effects on human condition are filtered through economic 

processes and use of ecosystem services. Are these the 

“be all and end all” of a truly integrated framework? No, 

but they are a beginning.

Acknowledgments

This conceptual framework was developed in the 

context of the Sustainable Rangelands Roundtable 

(SRR). The SRR is an inter-disciplinary collaborative partnership involving federal and state resource 

management agencies, tribal governments, academia, 

environmental organizations, resource user groups, and 

professional societies working to develop and refine 

indicators of sustainability, based on social, economic, 

and ecological factors, to provide a framework for 

national assessments of rangelands and rangeland uses. 

Similar roundtable groups exist for Forests, Minerals, 

and Water. Development of this framework benefited 

from discussions and contributions by the “Integration 

and Synthesis Group,” made up of representatives from 

all four of the Roundtables and from the H. John Heinz 

III Center for Science, Economics and the Environment 

which produced a report on sustainability and the state 

of the nation’s ecosystems in 2002.

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management: Introduction. Rangeland Ecology and 

Management, forthcoming.
410 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The Earth, an already complex system, has evolved 

a new dimension of complexity – the human mind. To 

the extent that human creativity has resulted in actions 

that are changing our planet, how do we transform our 

understanding of reality to meet the limiting challenge 

of this century – assuring sustainability of our integrated 

sociopolitical, economic, and environmental infrastructure? Mohamed ElBaradei, the Director-General of the 

International Atomic Energy Agency, stated in an essay 

published February 12, 2004 in The New York Times, “If 

the world does not change course, we risk self-destruction.” Of course Dr. ElBaradei was referring to nuclear 

proliferation. But could his words not be taken to refer 

more generally to a broad range of human activity as it 

impacts our home in space?

Exponentially growing interaction between human 

thought and its products and Earth’s life-sustaining 

systems have brought us to a critical juncture in history 

where we are forced to re-examine the lens through 

which we view our planet and our interactive role with 

it. Old world views provide an old lens – one constructed 

over the millennia – that has shaped our beliefs and the 

institutions formed around them. It may not be enough 

to simply ‘do better,’ or ‘work harder,’ at shaping our 

behavior through the old lens. We may, in fact, need a 

kind of transformation – to re-address the fundamentals 

of our existence and discover a socioeconomic, legal, 

and technological framework that places us in a holistic 

relationship with the planet and on a self-sustaining path 

toward adding value to our home in space.

Human consciousness presents an added dimension 

to the womb that gave it birth. Human consciousness is 

the new guy on the existential block and has evolved its 

ideologies and institutions during the transition out of a 

relatively unconscious condition. But that condition is 

changing. Even though, in geologic time, the evolution of 

human consciousness is relatively recent, the cumulative 

A New Dimension in Evolution: Impacts of Human 

Consciousness on Sustainability—and Beyond

Charles M. McKenna, Jr.

“The whole future of the Earth...seems to me to depend on the awakening of our faith in the future.”

Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (Letters to Mme Georges-Marie Haardt)

From de Chardin’s The Future of Man – 1964

Abstract—Starting with the concepts of the “noosphere” – the sphere of thought – and 

the evolution of consciousness developed by Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in the first half 

of the last century, we will introduce a hypothesis declaring the interdependence of the 

noosphere with global systems, and extrapolate to new perceptions that these concepts, 

and others which seem to flow from them, could contribute to transforming historic 

views into more hopeful visions of the future of human development and life on Earth. 

Just as mental outlook plays an important part in each person’s life path, so also do the 

ideas and world-views – limiting or expanding – held by the global community affect 

the assumptions, boundaries, and decisions of the human family as we discover who 

we are in an ever-evolving existence of increasing knowledge and change. Approaching 

the issue of sustainability from an engineer’s point of view, we quickly see, as stated 

in the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers’ Implementation Plan for its newly promulgated 

Environmental Operating Principles, that it demands “...a new view of engineering that 

embraces the physical and biological sciences as well as those of the social and economic 

disciplines. ...This shift in our understanding of engineering will be huge.” The paper 

will discuss three additional hypotheses as part of the movement toward sustainability; 

“moving from passive-reactive to active-creative world views,” “the breakdown of the 

false dualism between nature and human activity,” and “human thought and breaking 

the glass barrier between historical world views and a new paradigm that opens the 

door to new opportunities,” and will go on to discuss policy initiatives and technology 

development that would align with these new perspectives.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 411

knowledge and activity created by that consciousness has 

produced a condition that is changing the game. And during this relatively rapid rise of reflective consciousness, 

some of the assumptions we imbedded in our ideologies 

and institutions no longer play well. We need to start 

thinking about what parts of our fundamental structure 

need to change so that we can successfully reverse the 

slide into unsustainable behavior.

As human thought results in activities that are now 

recognized as cumulatively impacting the planet, it seems 

logical that one approach to coming to grips with the 

problems resulting from thought’s negative impacts is 

to scrutinize the institutions thought has evolved and the 

ideas that shape our worldviews, all of which provide a 

container for human thought and activity. The engineer 

in all of us wants things to work, and when we observe 

that they are not working, we need to go back to the 

drawing board and ask some fundamental questions. The 

health of the planet was not a consideration when most 

of our institutions were formed, and that introduces a 

potentially fatal flaw in those systems as they exist and 

are applied in today’s world. How do we break out of 

the container formed by those flawed institutions so that 

we can rejuvenate them and bring them into line with 

a new reality while not diminishing their essential and 

lasting value?

Perhaps there is a connecting and supporting link 

between the respect humans have for one another and 

their respect for all life and the infrastructure that supports it. Is it possible that one could exist in its fullness 

without the other? I suspect not. In fact, it may be the 

mental separation of the two worlds that contributes to 

our seeming inability to view existence holistically.

Foundation Ideas Leading to 

New Views of Existence

In the 1970s and 1980s, James Lovelock described 

an interdependence between the various parts of Earth’s 

living matter which he formulated as a hypothesis:

Journeys into space..... (have) provided a new 

insight into the interactions between the living 

and inorganic parts of the planet. From this 

has arisen the hypothesis, the model, in which 

the Earth’s living matter, air, oceans, and land 

surface form a complex system which can be seen 

as a single organism and which has the capacity 

to keep our planet a fit place for life. James 

Lovelock, GAIA: A New Look a Life on Earth, 

P. ix-x (1991)

And further,

Our (James Lovelock and Dian Hitchcock) results 

convinced us that the only feasible explanation 

of the Earth’s highly improbable atmosphere was 

that it was being manipulated on a day-to-day 

basis from the surface, and that the manipulator 

was life itself. James Lovelock, GAIA: A New 

Look at Life on Earth, P. 6 (1991)

Another perspective, focusing on the human dimension, was voiced during the first half of the 20th Century 

by Pierre Teilhard de Chardin in which he added concepts 

describing a new dimension in the life of planet Earth 

– human consciousness and the sphere of thought – the 

noosphere:

All around us, tangibly and materially, the 

thinking envelope of the Earth – the Noosphere 

– is adding to its internal fibres and tightening its 

network; Pierre Teilhard de Chardin, The Future 

of Man, P. 137 (1962)

At the heart of global sustainability are two foundation 

concepts: the physiochemisphere-biosphere interdependence and organic wholeness suggested by Lovelock, 

and de Chardin’s noosphere.

Combined, these two concepts form the ingredients of 

a physiochemisphere-biosphere-noosphere interdependence, one of four hypotheses presented here: that human 

consciousness has now advanced to the cutting edge of 

global evolution, and forms an organic whole with planet 

Earth. If the apex of human evolution is to be reached, 

we must choose to nurture the organic wholeness of 

inextricable interdependence between Earth systems 

and human consciousness. Just as Lovelock has pointed 

out the Earth’s physical-chemical-biological interdependence, we now recognize a similar interdependence 

between these global systems and human consciousness, 

an evolving organic wholeness whose interwoven sinews become more complex and tightly woven as human 

choice and understanding move us beyond sustainability 

to new horizons.

Life’s adventure has taken on a new dimension. Human 

consciousness is now at the cutting edge of planet Earth’s 

evolution. Human consciousness has always depended 

on global systems. Starting now, a reciprocal dimension 

is added. The future of global systems, assuming the 

continued advance of value-adding human civilization, 

will depend on human consciousness. The evolutionary 

child must now assume a reciprocal role in the care of its 

evolutionary parent. Global interdependence has come 

full circle.

If we accept this hypothesis, two major developments 

are required:

world views must evolve that are in harmony with 

our new reality, and

•
412 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

institutions must evolve that are in harmony with our 

new world views.

Three additional concepts may help us negotiate this 

transition:

moving from passive-reactive to active-creative world 

views

moving beyond the false dualism separating nature and 

the humasphere – the sphere of human activity

moving through a mental barrier between self-limiting 

historical assumptions and a new paradigm that opens 

the door to unlimited opportunity.

Moving From Passive-reactive 

to Active-creative World 

Views

Life is changing. A fundamental shift is occurring. 

And thus the hypothesis that human culture is moving 

from a passive-reactive state, to an active-creative state. 

From a physical-mechanical point of view, the activecreative state has been in evidence since humans first 

started making tools and changing the world around 

them. But from an intellectual-consciousness point of 

view, a cultural point of view, we are just entering the 

active-creative state.

We are beginning to recognize the quality and quantity 

of human impact, accumulated over time by geo-unconscious development; and are now realizing that we have 

entered a new paradigm – the active-creative state. So 

it’s not a matter of creating a new paradigm, it’s a matter 

of understanding the one we’re in.

What is the active-creative state? It is the application 

of thought to creating the future, taking the actions necessary to produce desired outcomes. It includes recognition 

that human actions form a growing part of evolution, and 

that evolution has itself evolved. No longer can evolution be viewed as the apparently unconscious advance 

of complexification. It now includes a powerful new 

element – life’s own product – human thought.

The complexification of matter which we have witnessed from the beginning of the universe, as we know 

it, to the present, is the outer view – the manifestation 

– of evolution. The complexification of matter manifests 

itself as the gradual movement of matter from seemingly 

simple forms to, over the eons, greater and greater complexification, leading eventually to life, then ever greater 

biological complexity until most recently, the evolution 

of the human mind – perhaps the most complex of all. But 

at the heart of biological evolution are so-called errors 

in cell reproduction. As every cell seeks to reproduce it 

•

•

•

•

goes through a series of checks, balances, and error corrections. But even with this incredible system of error 

avoidance, some errors get through. And thus, a cell is 

mutated. And from then on, the cell reproduces itself in 

its mutated form. This mutation then renders the owner a 

range of possibilities, with extremes ranging from disease 

and destruction to new capabilities not previously available. These mutations are then tested in the environment 

as to their enhanced ability to fit existing niches. And, 

as Darwin so intelligently theorized, those changes that 

rendered the owners more capable of adapting to existential niches around them, were better able to prosper 

and reproduce – thus extending the life of the mutation 

and tending to make it a permanent part of the chain of 

that species evolution.

Are there feedbacks from the surroundings to channel 

cell mutation? My understanding of science’s opinion 

is that mutation of cells is entirely random – accidental. 

And if time and research continue to support that theory, 

it emphasizes an even greater change in evolution’s 

course from unconscious and random-caused evolution 

to the consciousness-caused evolution that marks the 

active-creative state. For increasingly, as human activity 

changes the world around us, it creates new niches within 

which to live and explore, ever opening new doors to life 

and experience.

Thus we begin to see that human consciousness has 

introduced a new branch of evolution – one might call 

it Noospheric evolution – an evolution not based on 

cell mutation (although it may include cell mutation), 

but rather the mutation of ideas and reflective thought 

– ever opening windows of insight into, and deepening 

understandings of existence. And out of these mutated 

perceptions are created the adaptive tools needed by a 

changing planet.

As we conceptualize a new planet and create new 

niches, we are at the same time on an exponential path 

to learning how to engineer mutations in physics and 

biology that will allow us to do better in the world – and 

better fit the new niches – that we increasingly choose 

to design around us. So the full maturation of the new 

evolution in the active-creative state is to fully accept 

responsibility for our actions, understand that our destiny 

is to gain sufficient wisdom to increase its multi-dimensional profundity, and continually seek to add value to 

our integrated existential infrastructure.

The active-creative state opens the door to new responsibility, and to the vista of a holistic world that is 

at the same time hopeful, wonderful, exciting, boundless, liberating, choice-derived, and transforming. It is 

the active awareness that we are creating a new planet, 

and that this new planet will depend on the choices we 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 413

make and the actions we take – together. It gives new 

meaning to the word ‘freedom.’ We can choose to seek 

a world that increasingly supports life, or we can choose 

to ignore the signals of the planet and live for short term 

gains based on an outmoded socioeconomic model. The 

choices we make today will exist as the foundation for 

future life. Is there a greater freedom? Is there a greater 

responsibility?

The difference between active-creative and passive-reactive states is like the difference between a contributing 

crew member and parasite passenger on Space Station 

Earth (Steve Young, EPA); crew members maintain 

– and even enhance – the enterprise; parasite passengers 

are simply along for the ride while collecting critical 

components from the Space Station which are vital to 

its health simply for their own personal gain. Conscious 

or not, the passive-reactive state maintains the condition 

for dismantling the enterprise.

For most of our time on this planet, from a consciousness point of view, we have behaved as souvenir-collecting 

passengers. We must now choose to become crew members of our home in space. And to prepare ourselves, we 

must change our views of existence and our role in it. 

And that brings us to the heart of the matter: changing 

our perspective – changing the way we think.

Let’s first consider the absolutely revolutionary – and 

evolutionary – function of the human mind as it applies 

to the question of sustainability and our future. The 

evolution of the human mind has re-created the Earth 

as an open system. And that changes everything. In the 

past, the Earth has been viewed as a closed system. And, 

except for the energy and matter arriving from the sun 

and outer space, the physical resources of our planet 

are relatively fixed. But what about thought – creative 

intelligence – the human mind? Only one resource on 

the planet is relatively unlimited – creative intelligence 

and the human mind. And although this may be true 

for each individual mind, its potential can only be fully 

reached as many minds become connected in an open 

global network of shared information, dreams, ideas 

and creativity.

Overcoming a False Dualism 

– Achieving an Integrated 

View of Human-created and 

So-called ‘Nature-created’ 

Environments

One of the great obstacles to viewing our planet 

holistically is the false dualism we have created 

separating the world of ‘nature’ – the physio-chemisphere 

and biosphere – from the humasphere, the sphere of 

human activity and its human-constructed infrastructure. And thus the hypothesis that human activity and 

human-created infrastructure are part of nature and not 

separate from it. Viewed holistically, are the things built 

by humans any less ‘natural’ than the things built by 

‘nature’? Isn’t human thought the product of nature’s 

evolution? Haven’t human activities and all the things 

resulting from them grown from the seed of human 

thought? And don’t we consider the homes that animals 

build part of nature? Therefore, why shouldn’t buildings, roads, ships, constructed wetlands, our scientific 

and engineering endeavors, our knowledge base, and all 

human constructions – the humasphere – be considered 

an intrinsic part of nature?

Perhaps we created this dualistic view because the 

things we produce don’t look much like nature, nor, often, 

do they function well with it. And iteratively, they don’t 

look like or function well with nature because, in the 

mind of the designer, they exist in separate worlds. As 

long as we hold the disjointed view we created, we can 

be assured of a continuing path away from sustainability. 

So until our dualistic view is abandoned, we will not be 

able to harmonize human activity with global systems. 

The mental partitioning of so called human-created and 

nature-created worlds produces a false dualism which 

limits and inhibits both our world view and the evolution 

of human thought and action.

One of the great proponents and leaders in the area 

of designing systems that recognize the interconnectedness between nature and what humans create is William 

McDonough, architect, artist, designer, innovator, and 

author. He is a strong proponent of the idea that we 

should do no harm, and that everything we build should 

be “food” for something else when its life has ended 

– thus the idea, and the title of his book, Cradle to Cradle: 

Remaking the Way We Make Things (2002).

One of the great myths of our world view is the false 

dualism we have created by separating ourselves and 

our tools from nature, thinking that all the things humans construct, the humasphere, are not part of nature, 

but separate from it. This outmoded view may be very 

understandable because we’re so low on the existential 

learning curve and only now starting to develop technology and construct infrastructure that respects the 

environment on which it depends. One of the essential 

mental steps to creating a better world is to accept that 

everything we do is a part of the total system, that it is 

all part of “nature,” and that all of it must be created 

to be integral with it. Everything must be developed to 

exist and function in harmony with the entire system. 

It is all one.
414 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Breaking the Glass Barrier 

Between Historical World 

Views and a New Paradigm 

That Opens the Door to 

Unlimited New Frontiers

In the Figure below, titled In Thought and Action, 

From an Old World to a New, the area below the Line of 

Global Sustainability represents the box of current thinking. It represents the idea that we are ultimately limited 

in what we can do, and that the best we can do for the 

Earth is to limit the damage we cause. And within this 

box of limitation are three ideas, which are really three 

sides of the same limiting view. The first is the idea that 

we should minimize degradation of the global system 

in an attempt to approach sustainability, but that we can 

only approach it, never actually attain it. Although this 

view moves us in the right direction, it limits its goal to 

approaching sustainability, thinking, perhaps, that actually reaching it or moving beyond is not possible, and 

that true environmental sustainability can exist only in 

pristine wilderness. 

The second is the idea that the Earth’s system is so 

huge it doesn’t matter what we do, the system will be 

capable of absorbing it. This second view has probably 

been human kind’s prevalent view until recently, and 

may still dominate.

And the third is a belief that the whole enterprise will 

eventually wind down, so why worry about it. Just take 

what we want for today, and so what if we degrade the 

system to an ultimate state of inert uniformity, it’s going 

to happen eventually anyway.

The Line of Global Sustainability is like the Glass 

Ceiling of Global Evolution, to be shattered by evolution’s own product – creative thought. Breaking through 

the Line of Global Sustainability breaks us out of the 

mental box of limitation we have imposed on ourselves, 

and enables creation of an enhanced and unlimited system. The ability to do this forms the fourth hypothesis: 

that human consciousness, when it successfully integrates itself as an organic whole with global systems, is 

capable of evolving sufficiently to enable creation of an 

enhanced system with unknown limits. This hypothesis 

states that the noosphere, the interwoven sphere of human 

consciousness, recognizing itself as an organic part of 

global systems, will burst through the barrier of global 

sustainability created by our limited views, to evolve 

a world of unlimited potential – beyond sustainability. 

Movement toward this breakthrough initially manifests 

itself by efforts to limit the damage we do and to seek 

sustainability, but soon transforms to a paradigm in which 

we learn, not only to understand and maintain what has 

been created before us, but to build on the foundation 

of our inheritance by adding net value to the system and 

creating a new world of unknown limits.

A child may take many things apart, but can’t put 

them back together again. As far as our relationship to 

our planet is concerned, and even our understanding 

of existence itself, we are still children – perhaps even 

embryonic. But as we begin to see the implications of 

our deconstruction of the environment, and see the threat 

our deconstructive actions impose on our life-support 

system, we will soon learn enough about the fundamentals of the system and our interactive role in it to, first, 

gradually stop the deconstruction and, second, begin to 

add value.

The key to changing human action is to change human 

thinking. The prevalent idea that some people are good 

and some evil – even, as held in some circles, that all 

people are born with so-called original sin – is one of the 

flawed conceptual views held in the box of limitation. 

This view must be replaced by a more hopeful vision – a 

view that good people can have bad ideas. Moving from 

one world to another is, first and foremost, a matter of 

changing our ideas, the way we think, and the way we 

view the world.

Essential drivers for moving from an old world to a 

new are love, trust, and hope – perhaps the most powerful, yet fragile, elements of our existence. In themselves, 

they may not be fragile. But our connection to them is. 

And it is our connection to them that gives embodiment 

to their existence, and in essence, to ours.

Policy Supporting a New 

World

Each person contributes something unique to the 

fabric of our planet. In a world in which human action 

In Thought and Action,

From an Old World to a New

World of Unlimited Potential

World of Limitation

Human Activity Line of Global Sustainability Creating Assets

&

Adding 

Value

Creating More

or

Less Liability

2004 Time
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 415

is changing the planet, and realizing that human action 

results from human thought, it should be one of the 

great goals of our global community to create equality 

of opportunity through policies that strongly support 

sustainable technology research and development, and 

enhance educational, social and economic opportunity 

for all.

Economic Policy

For many, our economic system has been highly 

successful. However, it is an evolving system, and in 

its current state, severely flawed by its insensitivity to 

primary values in two major areas. The first, and perhaps 

most discussed today, is its insensitivity to some of the 

most valuable content on the planet – the underlying 

environmental infrastructure upon which our economic 

system – and everything else – depends. Some of our 

wiser policy makers have equated a healthy environment with a healthy economy. The trick is how to bring 

the value of services supplied by our environmental 

infrastructure into the economic equation. Right now, 

it’s off the table. As Al Gore pointed out 12 years ago 

in his book, Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the

Human Spirit (1992), our measure of economic value 

in the gross national product includes largely the things 

we trade and manufacture. It doesn’t include the health 

of the biosphere and our “natural” resources. It doesn’t 

bring eroded soil, stripped forests and lost species, 

lost wetlands, polluted atmosphere, or depleted water 

systems into the value equation. And as long as individual choices are based on wildly incomplete value 

information – both short and long term primary-value 

dynamics – then we are in serious jeopardy and operating unsustainably.

The second area in which our economic system is 

flawed is its relative disregard for the human condition. 

In a world with a view toward unlimited enhancement of 

life on the horizon, the incredible wealth imbedded in an 

integrated global human consciousness reaching toward 

its full potential is arguably the most valuable asset on 

the planet. Because we are concerned about the future of 

life on Earth and its relationship to the causative impacts 

of human activity, it is crucial that our utmost and most 

focused efforts go toward developing an ever-growing 

knowledge base, coupled with supportive economic 

and social environments, so that we can move beyond 

denial of the obvious and ignorance of the knowable to 

a condition of hope and creatively-constructive behavior. 

This will be necessary if we wish to create a sustainable 

world – and then move beyond it to the world of our 

potential.

Our economic system needs re-evaluation, and modifications or new systems explored. The current system 

is powerful in motivating activity where it increases 

the relatively one-dimensional bottom line and the lifestyles that money can buy. Unfortunately, it, along with 

all our other institutions, was evolved when the impact 

of human activity on the planetary system was not a 

consideration. The community of nations – all people 

– must come together to address this problem. This will 

only happen in democratic systems effectively enabled 

to overcome the narrow, short-term interests of current 

power structures. All systems are currently operating 

under disabling doctrines based on flawed assumptions, effectively denying the existence of their actions’ 

short- and long-term impacts on the planet, and denying 

responsibility for the results.

There are many good things about the current system, especially as modified by progressive democratic 

societies with moderating policy for the common good. 

Therefore, attempts at changing current systems must assure that they substantially maintain current benefits and 

protections. However, change is needed. Recent regressive economic trends, in the U.S. and elsewhere, have led 

to expanding poverty, underemployment, and growing 

unevenness in the distribution of income and wealth, 

both locally and globally. Add to this the recent retreat 

from environmental protection, and we face an urgent 

need to address the question of modifying our economic 

system, either through fundamental change, or by policy 

which moderates the hard edges created by short-term, 

narrow, and irresponsible perspectives. Essential in this 

effort is the need to incorporate the value of the planet’s 

life-support engine in our calculations of value, perhaps, 

as a goal, replacing gross national product with gross 

global value as the model for measuring progress and 

wealth. And since, under the hypothesis presented here, 

human consciousness is now a central part of the planet’s 

life-support engine, it is critical that we now include all 

dimensions of human health and enhancement in the 

calculation of value.

To the extent possible, and certainly as a goal, we 

need to build an incentive system that will make enhancement of the environment, the creation of a holistic 

view of what we do, and adding value to our integrated 

social, economic and environmental infrastructure a 

natural response by all players. Daniel Janzen of the 

University of Pennsylvania, in his article, Gardenification 

of Wildland Nature and the Human Footprint (1998), has 

suggested that because the local and commercial forces 

are so intense, the best, and perhaps only, way to protect 

the biosphere is to involve the public and commercial 

interests by actively creating wildland nature as a global 

garden to be carefully used and increasingly loved by the 
416 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

local people. Dr. Janzen says it best. Here are his third 

and seventh through tenth paragraphs.

Why can’t the wild tropical species be left “out 

in the wild” to fend for themselves? Because 

the wild is at humanity’s mercy. Humanity now 

owns life on Earth. It plans the world, albeit 

with an unintended here and an uninformed 

there. Until the Pleistocene, not more than a few 

thousandths of one percent of the earth’s surface 

was ours. Today it all is. If we place those species 

anywhere other than in a human safe zone, they 

will continue in their downward spiral as grist in 

the human mill, just as they have for the past ten 

thousand years.

Shelter is much of the reason why the world’s 

biodiversity is in deep trouble. Humanity and 

its domesticates - those ever-present extensions 

of the human genome - are genetically and 

culturally antagonistic to most wild biodiversity. 

It is part of the “enemy” and always will be. 

“Shelter” is largely shelter from the wild - be it 

monkeypox and rice borers, lions and wolves, 

or forest that shades pasture grasses and bean 

plants. I cannot imagine how to hide or integrate 

a hundred thousand species of wild organisms, 

and all the things that they do to and with each 

other, in someone’s roof or in the Integrated Pest 

Control of an orange orchard. My goal is coexistence with wild nature, not its exclusion unto 

extinction.

The acquisition of sustenance – feeding – appears 

to be the only hopeful refuge for wildland 

biodiversity. At first glance this seems an unlikely 

route. We are hunters and gatherers. We eat 

wild biodiversity, and we do all we can to help 

our chromosomal extensions eat that which we 

cannot eat. A bean plant is a green machine that 

grows directly out of our chromosomes, sitting 

where wild biodiversity once was, another mouth 

for sun and minerals.

However, gardens are forever. Gardens are 

mushrooms on horse manure and cats under 

the kitchen table. Gardens are beehives and 

cows, and sixteen varieties of rice growing in 

one rainforest clearing. Gardens are hydroponic 

tomatoes and vats of whisky-spewing yeast. Kids 

do it, agroindustry does it, grandparents do it. 

Bushmen do it, astronauts do it, and Pleistocene 

Rhinelanders did it. And we will all still be doing it 

10,000 years from now. The garden is a somewhat 

unruly extension of the human genome.

So, how do we hide 235,000 species in the 

garden? By recognizing and relabeling wildland 

nature as a garden per se, having nearly all of 

the traits that we have long bestowed on a garden 

- care, planning, investment, zoning, insurance, 

fine-tuning, research, and premeditated harvest. 

And this leads to the question of absorption of 

humanity’s omnipresent footprints.

In some form or other, humans need to take charge 

of maintaining the biosphere, and all the services it provides, because, as Dr. Janzen points out, “...the wild is at 

humanity’s mercy. Humanity now owns life on Earth.”

Although individual internal motivation based on 

knowledge and understanding is most efficient, external 

motivation from policy and law is an important tool and 

must also be used – at least until the dimensions of our 

new existence become part of our genetic consciousness – in two different ways; one, creating incentives 

for positive behavior; and the other, consequences for 

negative behavior. Of these two policy paths, positive 

reinforcement is more efficient, because it also stimulates a change in thinking and opens the door to creative 

solutions. Perhaps it’s a little like creating performance 

specifications for a product or service, as opposed to 

writing out how to do something in great detail. The 

latter takes away the potential for creative solutions and 

reduces the performer’s responsibility for a successful 

result. But sometimes the more legalistic form is necessary – witness the laws against segregation which forced 

a different behavior, exposing many to a different experience and leading some to changed views.

Monitoring science and technology will play a key 

role in developing human understanding of the essential 

values in the biosphere we depend on. A very interesting article by Daniel Janzen, Now Is the Time (2004), 

describes a potent and intimate means of both monitoring and stimulating interest in the planet’s biosphere, 

using existing technology to place a small bio-identifier 

cell-data phone in the hands of the public. To give you 

an idea of what he is talking about, here is the second 

paragraph of his paper:

Imagine a world where every child’s backpack, 

every farmer’s pocket, every doctor’s office and 

every biologist’s belt has a gadget the size of a 

cell phone. For free. Pop off a leg, pluck a tuft of 

hair, pinch a piece of leaf, swat a mosquito, and 

stick it in on a tuft of toilet tissue. One minute 

later the screen says Periplaneta americana, 

Canis familiaris, Quercus virginiana, or West 

Nile Virus in Culex pipiens. A chip the size of 

your thumbnail could carry 30 million speciesspecific gene sequences and brief collaterals. 

Push the collateral information button once, the 

screen offers basic natural history and images 

for that species – or species complex – for your 

point on the globe. Push it twice, and you are in 

dialogue with central for more complex queries. 

Or, the gadget, through your cell-phone uplink, 

says “this DNA sequence not previously recorded 

for your zone, do you wish to provide collateral 

information in return for 100 identification 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 417

credits?” Imagine what maps of biodiversity 

would look like if they could be generated from 

the sequence identification requests from millions 

of users.

As Janzen’s idea points out, monitoring science and 

technology must not simply focus on geographic views of 

the planet, although that will be one very valuable aspect. 

It is critical that in developing our monitoring science 

and technology, we develop it as part of a system that 

provides us the means to monitor and evaluate the relative 

health of all systems making up our life-support engine: 

the physiochemisphere, the biosphere, the noosphere, and 

the humasphere (the sphere of human activity) – along 

with all their connections and interactions – to create both 

static snapshots and dynamic models of the system.

The endeavor to reach sustainability, and eventually 

move beyond it, is the ultimate engineering enterprise 

– an Earth engineering enterprise. Human-caused planetary change is currently underway, but largely denied 

and un-acknowledging, especially by those who think 

their power and wealth would be threatened by the 

changes demanded by its recognition. Future life on this 

planet demands that these people and institutions now 

acknowledge human-driven climate and global change, 

take responsibility for it, and correct course. No greater 

betrayal of future life on this planet exists than the continued campaigns of denial and misinformation surrounding 

the subject of human-caused global change by those who 

see their narrow social, political, power, and profitability 

interests affected by a change in course.

Today, we are largely in denial of the planetary impacts 

of our actions. And as they relate to the enduring health 

of our planet, our activities are piecemeal and haphazard. 

Perhaps this is true, in part, because our ideologies and 

institutions have not given us the creative space to think 

in these terms. That must change. Humanity must accept 

responsibility for its actions, recognize the holistic nature 

of our system, and become planetary engineers.

Perhaps one way of doing that would be to develop the 

ability to construct a project assessment scheme which 

would give value to all the elements of a project’s impacted area, and then evaluate the net value change with 

each project option. Conceptually, this would be similar 

to the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process, but enhanced by including a value for the biosphere 

and the noosphere of the project-impacted area, as well as 

the interrelationship and influences over time of the immediately impacted area with its boundaries and the areas 

beyond. This would move us toward a global approach 

in value and impact assessment as our experience and 

understanding grows. It would also introduce the concept 

of evaluating the fundamental worth of the biosphere, the 

noosphere, and all their supporting systems as part of any 

analysis of asset allocation or reallocation.

My sense of it is that there is gold in here somewhere. 

Sometimes, when looking at existing problems and their 

potential solutions, they are seen from a status quo position wherein the change seems horrific, impossible, or 

unrealistic. However, if visualized from the other side of 

the problem, the problem may appear not only to have 

been resolved, but surprisingly, to have opened a whole 

treasure chest of opportunity not originally envisioned.

In that regard, the following concept is offered to 

illustrate a point, and is not assumed to be applicable 

without a great deal more consideration and analysis. 

This concept involves creating an integrated planetary 

value system to replace the current, much more narrowly 

focused, property valuation system. As an example, let’s 

consider a house on a half acre of land valued under the 

current system at $100,000. Now, under a new integrated 

planetary value method, its value as a contributing part of 

the life-sustaining global system is added. Clearly, when 

viewed separately, the value of the planet’s life-support 

engine dwarfs that of the humasphere, the products of 

human activity, i.e., everything counted in the assets of 

pre-existing global economic systems. Thus, using the 

integrated planetary value concept, a property’s potential 

to add to the planet’s life-support engine adds a value that 

dwarfs its previous evaluation under the current system. 

Let’s say, for purposes of illustration, that the property is 

valued at 100 times its previous value, based on its condition relative to its potential contribution to the global 

system, and is now valued at 10 million dollars. And what 

does that do? Does it increase total taxes? Conceptually, 

no, because all property would go up in similar fashion, 

so the tax rate would go down to about 1/100th of its 

previous value, and property taxes, on average, would 

remain about the same. However, to create a built-in 

incentive to increase the property’s contribution to the 

planet’s life-support engine, taxes would be based in part 

on an inverse relationship to the biospheric contribution 

of the property. If property condition was valued at 100 

percent of its potential contribution to the planet’s lifesupport system, the tax would be lowest, increasing as 

its valuation decreased.

Under the integrated planetary value system, property 

assets would rise dramatically, giving communities much 

greater financial strength. It would also tend to flatten 

the global distribution of wealth, so that countries currently considered poor would find themselves with much 

higher capital assets and proportionately better situated to 

maintain and develop their social and economic worlds. 

It would also seem to provide built-in motivations to 

protect planetary life-essential assets, both from its 

inverse tax relationship, as well as from its function in 
418 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

the marketplace. So the same tax and market forces that 

once tended to ignore and diminish our natural resources, 

would now be working to protect them. What would have 

changed in the serious consideration of such a concept 

are the perspective and the underlying assumptions of 

our value system, bringing them from an outdated and 

mythical belief system (that the environment is so huge 

it can’t be significantly impacted by human activity) into 

alignment with the reality of today’s world.

Now let’s take this analysis several steps further by 

adding not just the value of the biosphere, but also the 

value of everything else, including the noosphere. How 

does each person on the planet relate to the total system 

in a constructive way? And how do we engineer a system 

that uses the continuing health of all systems as a motivating force in the dynamics of the one system increasingly 

impacting all others – the noosphere?

Social Policy

To enhance the noosphere it will be essential to dramatically alter our view of individual worth. If we were 

to consider each individual on the planet an irreplaceable 

facet in a global jewel, and if we then treated each person 

with the respect due their inalienable worth, we might 

find ourselves living in a different world. This would be 

engineering at its new core.

Approaching the issue of sustainability from an engineering perspective, we quickly see that a new view of 

engineering is demanded, one that embraces the physical 

and biological sciences as well as those of the social and 

economic disciplines. This shift in our understanding of 

engineering will be huge.

Because humans are part of our planet’s life-support 

system, respect for it is directly connected to the respect 

we have for one another. This leads us to certain imperatives, including new initiatives in social equity that will 

raise opportunities enabling every person to experience 

a life of dignity and self-respect. These imperatives 

would include modifying our laws and policy to make 

it the right of every person to earn a living wage for 

themselves and their families. This effort is not only a 

matter of civil rights. It would also enhance the pool of 

human creativity, enabling everyone to participate, as 

Steve Young of the Environmental Protection Agency 

has said, as crew members instead of simply passengers 

on our home in space.

Population is often considered a major problem in 

reaching sustainability. Yet, although certainly a factor, 

it is a dependent variable – dependent on ideological, 

cultural, social, and economic factors. This makes it a 

very complex and divisive issue. Lester Brown and Mark 

Hertsgaard, in their excellent books Eco-Economy and 

Earth Odyssey, respectively, discuss the issue of population, but also point out that much of the environmental 

impact – perhaps most – due to human activity, comes 

from countries with the most controlled populations, 

i.e., the western developed world. And they and others 

point out that the United States, with about 5 percent of 

the world’s population consumes about 25 percent of 

its resources. And it’s that consumption – and perhaps 

the way it’s consumed – that most powerfully relates to 

the levels of human impact on the global environment. 

So, although population is certainly a factor, the real 

concern is more related to human activity than simply 

population.

Wealthy nations, those with population control well 

in hand, often look at population control from their own 

perspective, viewing areas of the world with booming 

populations as somehow a threat to their share of the 

pie and a burden on global systems. Yet these motivations will not be sufficient to affect the changes they 

seek. Instead, it is the motivation within the populations 

at issue that will bring about meaningful change. The 

factors driving uncontrolled population growth, and the 

impact of those factors on those very populations, are at 

the heart of the matter and must be the focus of attention 

as choice-enhanced hope for the future unfolds. For if 

our future civilization depends on the maturation of the 

noosphere, not as driven by external imprimatur, but as 

internally motivated by the inspiration of each individual 

– interlaced in an increasingly radiant global jewel – then 

to the extent that the aspirations of these populations are 

thwarted by their own or other’s world views, the path 

to maturation will be extended.

The path toward greater hope insists on respecting 

the lives of all populations, including our own, and assisting them in moving forward, in ways they choose, 

toward their full potential, all the while valuing individual 

identities and helping all build an increased sense of 

self-worth. Until the cultural and ideological barriers to 

action disappear, both within and outside all populations, 

the movement through cultural and ideological change 

cannot be successfully negotiated.

Underlying negatively impacting types of human 

activity are world views, ideologies, and institutions 

developed in the past when human impact on the global 

system was not a recognized consideration. Although 

local impacts were evident, the impacts were viewed 

as strictly local. And without the experience of a global 

view, these impacts seemed insignificant and the potential 

for their expansion under the power of human technology 

and development went unrecognized.

So, as mentioned previously, the solution lies in taking 

a multi-pronged approach – working on the long-term 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 419

issues of changing world views and ideology through 

deepening our understanding of global systems, along 

with the more direct approach of providing legal and 

policy incentives to do the right thing to the extent we 

know them at the time.

Unfortunately, the forces of our narrowly focused 

economic system have created incentives that make 

widespread development and distribution of accurate 

information on the state of the planet very difficult. In 

a recent book by Ross Gelbspan, Boiling Point: How 

Politicians, Big Oil and Coal, Journalists, and Activists 

Have Fueled the Climate Crisis – and What We Can Do 

to Avert Disaster (2004), the first sentence of his Preface 

reads, “It is an excruciating experience to watch the 

planet fall apart piece by piece in the face of persistent 

and pathological denial.” And in an August 15, 2004 

New York Times Book Review article on Gelbspan’s 

book, Al Gore writes the following in four contiguous 

paragraphs:

Gelbspan’s first book, The Heat Is On (1997), 

remains the best, and virtually only, study of how 

the coal and oil industry has provided financing to 

a small group of contrarian scientists who began 

to make themselves available for mass media 

interviews as so-called skeptics on the subject of 

global warming. In fact, these scientists played a 

key role in Gelbspan’s personal journey on this 

issue. When he got letters disputing the facts in 

his very first article, he was at first chastened – 

until he realized the letters were merely citing the 

industry-funded scientists. He accuses this group 

of “stealing our reality.”

In his new book, Gelbspan focuses his toughest 

language by far on the coal and oil industries. 

After documenting the largely successful efforts 

of companies like ExxonMobil to paralyze the 

policy process, confuse the American people and 

cynically “‘reposition global warming as theory 

rather than fact,’” as one strategy paper put 

it, he concludes that “what began as a normal 

business response by the fossil fuel lobby – denial 

and delay – has now attained the status of a crime 

against humanity.”

I wouldn’t have said it quite that way, but I’m glad 

he does, and his exposition of the facts certainly 

seems to support his charge.

Gelbspan also criticizes the current 

administration, documenting its efforts to 

“demolish the diplomatic foundations” of the 

international agreement known as the Kyoto 

Protocol, and describing its approach to energy 

and environmental policy as “corruption 

disguised as conservatism.” Again, he backs up 

his charge with impressive research. Moreover, 

his critique is far from partisan. He takes on 

environmental groups for doing way too little and 

for focusing on their own institutional agendas 

rather than the central challenges.

If Gelbspan is correct, and the narrow interests of 

industry, governments, and a corporately-dependent media are intentionally, or even unconsciously, altering or 

withholding important information from the public, this 

is indeed a crime against humanity. And government’s 

involvement in this activity, makes it especially culpable, 

since its single most important mission is to serve the 

common good, and not the narrow interests of the powerful and the “haves and have-mores,” as our president 

labeled the wealthy while addressing those he calls his 

“base” in Michael Moore’s documentary, Fahrenheit; 

9/11.

We must seek to develop policies that will lead to better understanding of our planet’s life-support engine, and 

develop the knowledge base that will allow us to make 

decisions based on their ability to add net value to the 

integrated global economic, social, and environmental 

infrastructure. No longer can truly democratic systems 

tolerate being effectively dominated by those who would 

deny or mislead, consciously or unconsciously, to serve 

their narrow self interests where these are in conflict 

with a higher purpose – the health of our planet and of 

civilization itself. On this we must insist. And the work 

required to attain the needed knowledge to satisfy this 

mission must be a first priority. The health of our planet’s 

life-support engine is our most urgent global issue. The 

war on terror, although related and a clear manifestation 

of our dangerous and unhealthy state, is dwarfed by it.

Our world is precariously balanced – socially, 

economically, environmentally and technologically – between a creative and unlimited future, and disaster; and 

mostly because we have not yet truly grasped what is 

taking place around us. We must move toward a world 

where EVERY person counts, is respected, and has the 

opportunity to find their own special genius, not only 

because it’s the right thing to do, but because it’s essential. We must create a world of hope out of a vision 

that recognizes human creativity as having reached the 

cutting edge of evolution, thus making human consciousness the most essential resource and critical asset 

of a sustainable civilization. And if the goal is to reach 

beyond mere sustainability of our economic, social, 

and environmental infrastructure – not only reducing 

the damage we do, but also adding long-term net value 

to all life and the life-support engine of our home in 

space – then the true capital of the enterprise becomes 

an ever-expanding, ever-deepening, and ever-enriching 

of each individual’s consciousness. Because we are all 

in this together, all people must be included. No one 

can be left behind.
420 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

A vision for moving toward a sustainable world includes the following, originally written by the author 

as part of the vision statement for the U.S. Army Corps 

of Engineers’ Environmental Operating Principles’ 

Implementation Plan:

a realization that human activity is significantly changing our integrated economic, environmental and social 

infrastructure;

that we can consciously choose to shape these changes 

so that they add net value;

we define changes that add net value as changes that 

interact with the integrated system in such a way as 

to cause positive responses, not only at the time of 

the initial action, but also in a manner that catalyzes 

future positive actions;

that the most fundamental value of the integrated infrastructure is its ability to sustain and enhance all life;

that the enhancement of life, given the influence of 

human thought on the global system, will increasingly 

depend upon the evolution of human thought and 

understanding; and,

that the nurturing and development of human thought 

requires a social and economic environment that 

enhances human dignity, opportunity, freedom, and 

equity for all people on this planet.

Education

Education is particularly important in shaping the 

noosphere. My vision for future education would be a 

system integrated more holistically into the life of the 

community. Regarded as a critical investment, it would 

stimulate the highest regard for those involved, and garner necessary resource allocation to allow it to function 

as a premier sector in society.

Today, especially in the United States, the issue of 

guns in school, children killed by other students, and 

an ever increasing prison population all point to system 

failure. Somehow, the energy that now goes into rehabilitation and attempting to pick up the pieces of broken lives 

must be moved to the early days of each individual’s life 

experience, in the form of investments in a child’s sense 

of self worth, leading to the development and release of 

their creative potential. At each moment in a child’s development there must be available a selection of niches 

within which the child can test its experience and explore 

its potential. To accomplish this, an environment must be 

created that rewards the student not only for their own 

success, but also for encouraging others.

Making self-worth and social acceptance a high-priority goal of our education system may be accomplished 

•

•

•

•

•

•

most constructively by policy creating internal motivation 

within each child. Students relate socially with teachers and other professionals in the system, often quite 

importantly, especially for students from dysfunctional 

homes. However, their most intimate and important social 

contacts are with other students. Therefore, it is imperative that incentives be created encouraging each child to 

take responsibility, not only for their own development, 

but also for being a positive force in the development of 

other students within their circle of influence. In wildland, 

when a carnivore sees another animal injured or weak, it 

chooses it for its next meal. Unfortunately, our schools 

are often allowed to function as a wildland. Students 

often pick on other students seen to be weak, insecure, or 

a threat to another students influence, thereby tending to 

create further physical and psychological damage to an 

already damaged child. Experienced teachers and school 

administrators recognize the problem of child-to-child 

abuse, but are not able, and in some cases not willing, 

to use their time to correct this situation.

A student-motivated system should be created to efficiently deal with this important issue. To do this, perhaps 

an investment plan could be developed in which each 

student would be rewarded for his or her contribution to 

the psychological and social wellbeing of other students, 

especially those demonstrating particular need for social 

and self-image enhancement. This investment plan could 

be structured in two ways, one consisting of a range of 

monetary and non-monetary rewards to be given the 

student for near-real-time recognition of their efforts, 

and the other being a more long-term accumulation of 

assets or credits toward future programs or educational 

opportunities. This paper is not the place to work out the 

details of such a program, but creative teachers, parents, 

administrators and legislators could quickly work out a 

myriad of options for both these investment forms.

Funding for the Student Motivation Program could 

eventually come from the money currently invested in 

picking up the pieces of broken lives, i.e., prison costs, 

drug rehabilitation costs, and others that could be directly 

related to disabled starts in life. In the beginning, since 

it would not immediately affect the cost of currently 

broken lives, the funds would need to be considered an 

investment in the future. But in a generation, the reduced 

costs for prison and rehabilitation would pay for the 

investment. And not long thereafter, the added value of 

creative and capable people, who might otherwise have 

been a drain on community resources, would be adding 

far more value to the community than the cost of the 

Student Motivation Program.

In a more traditional vein, it would be beneficial 

to immediately initiate an internationally organized 

education effort targeting all ages and aimed at impart-
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 421

ing an understanding of the interrelatedness of our global 

systems. This effort would present to students, as well 

as the general public, the most recent information on the 

dynamics of our global environmental infrastructure. It 

would be essential that, as for all education programs, it 

would be factually and scientifically driven, and not politically or ideologically. It would also be important that new 

information from the scientific community be integrated 

into the program quickly, relying heavily on the internet, 

with local teachers using subject matter from the internet 

in local classrooms and homes. This effort would include 

making broadband internet access globally available. 

Global broadband internet access would facilitate other 

communication and education efforts essential for other 

aspects of connecting a global community.

Sustainable Technology—

Research and Development

Until now, we have lived in a condition where the 

almost-universally held worldview is that there is not 

enough to go around, if fairly and justly distributed. 

This produces both real and mental climates of scarcity 

in which humans resort to violence to solve their problems. It also produces a destructive dilemma in human 

thought. Where most of our cultures and ideologies, at 

least in part, teach us to treat others justly and fairly 

– even with love – our condition forces us into struggles 

for survival, whether legitimate or otherwise, that violate 

our inner sense of being, thus tending to force a distortion 

of our doctrines and ideologies in an attempt to justify 

our conflicting behaviors. Our economic system reflects 

our current reality and state of mind by pitting one group 

against another to see who will win – who will survive. 

Violence and distrust result from the struggle over limited resources between people, communities, cultures, 

corporations, nations, and coalitions. Clearly, it would 

be desirable to move beyond this state. To do so will 

require critical advances, not only in the way we think, 

but also in science and engineering.

Technology, at this juncture, is having both beneficial 

and negative consequences. Scientists and engineers, 

coupled with the entrepreneurial genius of modern 

commerce, have developed technologies liberating and 

giving hope to many. The advance of technology is here 

to stay. It is one of the expressions of the noosphere. At 

the same time, some of these technologies, and especially 

the way they’ve been applied, have severely impacted the 

life-support engine of our planet, as well as being used 

to limit the ability of many to improve their condition, 

especially where that advance was viewed as producing undesirable competition or a threat to controlling 

societies and their hold on power and resources. Again, 

it is clear that if reasonable alternatives were available, 

it would be desirable to behave in ways that enhance life 

for all on this planet.

If we yearn for a world where sharing and cooperation 

take precedence over hoarding and competition, then we 

need to begin to create that world. To reach that world, the 

place to begin is, first, in our minds, by tearing down the 

mental barriers that tell us it can’t be done; and second, 

in our policy and investment decisions, placing high on 

the list research and development in technologies that 

could eventually lead to enhanced lives for all people and 

a healthy planet for future generations. Two technologies, 

information and energy, seem critically important for 

creating a significantly larger global “pie,” large enough 

so that all humankind can share in it without leaving some 

people out, while at the same time adding value to the 

planet’s integrated social, economic, and environmental 

infrastructure.

Information Technology and 

an Expanded Knowledge Base

The development of information technology seems 

intrinsic to development of an ever-deepening knowledge 

base critical for the transformation we are discussing. 

It is through accurate information emanating from an 

expanding knowledge base that we grow in understanding and are enabled to change the way we think. This 

differs from misinformation that, in the quest for narrow 

personal or organizational short-term gain, is propagated 

for purposes of misleading minds.

Information technology includes the total construct 

and condition within which information is born, communicated, used, and responded to. One of the greatest 

examples of information technology is the Internet, created by the Department of Defense as the Arpanet, and 

critically supported by Al Gore in legislation that enabled 

its transformation to the Internet.

Broadband high speed internet connectivity for all 

people could evolve a higher level of participatory democracy, greatly expanding the choice of options and 

opening up the flood gates of human creativity and participation in an evolving global community tied together 

with a common thirst for freedom, democracy, and the 

rule of law.

The ability to create, share, and access data and information and to connect minds in a global network is key 

to evolving the knowledge base needed for constructive 

social, economic, technological, and environmental evolution, and to realize true, informed, democracy.
422 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

A hopeful future depends on the evolution of human 

consciousness, and information technology is a key 

ingredient. Healthy development will only be fully 

realized in a decentralized, open, and interoperable 

information environment. Constructive social evolution 

depends on good information and the means to access 

and use it. The essence of democracy is that people 

freely choose their government representatives. That 

choice is only truly free when it is based on accurate 

information. Therefore, lies, disinformation, and character assassination are deep betrayals of the democratic 

principle and of all humanity. They are a betrayal of 

democracy and the people democracies represent. 

Intentional disinformation is a tragic dishonor in a world 

that is increasingly information dependent. The health 

of the noosphere and all global systems is dependent 

on our ability to make choices and decisions based on 

the best and most accurate information our knowledge 

base can produce.

The goal for democracy, for its health and even its existence, should be the enhancement of each individual’s 

experience and awareness of reality. The ability to develop, access, express, and use accurate information is the 

ultimate freedom and the heart and power of democracy, 

and is essential to achieving sustainability and reaching 

beyond to the enhancement of an integrated global sociopolitical, economic, and environmental infrastructure. 

A healthy future is dependent on true democracy and the 

power of free people armed with accurate information.

The sum total of human activity on this planet – the 

humasphere – is now a significant player in the Earth’s 

evolutionary process. To productively actualize this role, 

we need to think of ourselves and the planet holistically, 

not as separate entities. Nature and the things humans 

create are not separate. As discussed earlier, they may 

look different because we’re in a transitional mode. But 

to mentally maintain them as separate entities seems to 

me to be a false dualism that will keep us locked in denial 

and unsustainable behavior.

Once we accept responsibility for our relatively new 

role in the evolution of our planetary system, we will be 

able to move forward to a positive future built on creative 

action and a sense of hope for future generations. But the 

transition it requires and which we are confronting now 

demands major changes in our thought processes. And 

these changes can only occur if there is open access to 

an expanding and interoperable knowledge base that is 

based on science, not ideology, and is designed to facilitate its evolution as an accurate depiction of existence.

It is critical that we understand as soon as possible 

both the impact of human thought and action on our 

integrated infrastructure and the time constants of global 

change. Humans are now at the cutting edge of our 

planet’s evolution, and decisions based on good information are essential if we are to attain – and then move 

beyond – global social, economic, and environmental 

sustainability.

The process of raising people’s consciousness of the 

long-term consequences of our actions is not an easy one. 

But things can happen when we least expect them, and 

enlightened leadership supporting good policy based on 

science, not ideology, can play a significant role.

Somehow we must bring the true costs of our actions 

as they impact the health of our planet’s life-support 

engine into our decision-making process – whether it’s 

purchasing a car, choosing mass transit over use of the 

automobile, or choosing which technologies to use and 

to invest in. And this will all take time – time to evolve 

new worldviews and supporting policy. Let us hope that 

we can accomplish this transition smoothly, maturely, 

and quickly.

We are all in this together. The biosphere has always 

been a shared global system. And now human consciousness is an increasingly shared and global phenomenon. 

Witness our connections through the internet; an increasingly open, interoperable, and inclusive information 

network; the global marketplace; and the ability to rapidly 

reach any location on the planet.

We are all tied together in an incredible enterprise. And 

until we liberate ourselves from the mental prisons of 

outmoded mythological and institutional belief systems 

that have grown up over the millennia, none of us will 

be truly free. And since none of us will ever have a complete grasp of reality, the process of liberating ourselves 

will be ongoing throughout human existence. However, 

there are crucial moments in that process, and we are in 

the midst of one now; a time when the impulse of rapid 

growth in human technology and development is beginning to make profound impacts on our environmental 

infrastructure; and when our current world views and 

belief systems, and the ideologies and institutions that 

have grown up around them over the millennia, are not 

sufficient to meet the challenge.

Energy

Sane development of energy technology is essential to a sustainable planet. Because of their insanely 

continuing lobby and propaganda campaign promoting 

use of carbon-based fuels and deceiving the public 

into thinking that human-induced global warming 

and the carbon dioxide-induced greenhouse effect is 

non-existent, or at best theory, the narrowly-focused 

coal and oil interests, backed by a big-oil influenced 

Administration, are leading the planet to a catastrophic 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 423

edge. Human-induced global warming, a view supported 

by most of the respected scientists in the world who 

have studied the issue, is an extremely serious problem 

whose change of course will require an immediate and 

dedicated global response in the form of research on 

efficient solar energy production, efficient extraction of 

hydrogen from water, and the development of a distribution infrastructure for its use as fuel, most importantly 

in transportation. This includes research on solar cell 

efficiency, and development of desert-based solar-cell 

farms around the planet that could produce energy for 

direct use in electrical power grids and to extract hydrogen from water to be used as fuel for transportation 

systems and remotely-sited power plants. Also to be 

included are research on new forms of extracting solar 

energy through use of bio-organisms and other means, 

expanded use of wind power, expanded research to 

develop clean nuclear fusion, and continuing research 

on all forms of non-carbon-based renewable energy. 

Moving forward with any form of energy from biomass 

should be questioned closely because of its impact on 

soil, local and global agriculture needs, and the birthto-death economics and environmental impacts of its 

use, including the fact that it is carbon-based and its use 

is likely to exacerbate the carbon-dioxide contribution 

to global warming.

Melting ice around the planet needs special attention. 

Ice is one of this planet’s great climate stabilizers. It 

absorbs energy as it melts, and it gives off energy as it 

freezes. But because it undergoes a phase change from 

solid to liquid and liquid to solid, the energy stored or 

given off is large compared with the energy to change 

either ice or water one degree in temperature. Its loss, 

now on-going at an unprecedented rate, is not only a clear 

indication of global warming and a potential problem 

for those who will be affected by rising sea-levels in 

years ahead. Perhaps most critical regarding its loss is its 

potential impact on the planet’s ability to maintain temperature stability within the temperature ranges needed 

for support of human civilization and the portions of 

the biosphere on which it depends. The fact that there is 

net melting of ice indicates that more energy is coming 

into and being generated within the global system than 

is radiating out. As long as there is significant ice mass 

still available to melt, thereby absorbing some of this 

excess energy, there will be a tendency to hold climate 

and temperature change to lower rates of increase than 

would otherwise be the case if there were no ice. This is 

not a reason to delay for one minute the effort to affect 

a solution to achieve a net energy balance for the planet, 

but rather, a reason to accelerate our efforts while the 

ice-cushion is still largely intact.

Although the ice and global warming issues are only 

part of the sustainability issue, they touch all of them. 

And for this reason they are clearly at the leading edge 

of concern, primarily because of their power over all 

life, and because reversing their direction is so intrinsically bound up with the inability of current institutions 

and ideologies, evolved in another world, to deal with 

them. The writing of Ross Gelbspan, discussed earlier, 

covers some of the key issues surrounding institutional 

resistance to meeting this challenge.

Moving Toward Sustainability: 

Seven Principles—A Guide for 

Individuals and Organizations

As a guide for individuals and organizations who wish 

to participate in the quest for a sustainable world, the 

seven Environmental Operating Principles, promulgated 

recently by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, form an 

excellent starting point. They are included here accompanied with the author’s interpretive text broadened to 

include all parties. Unlike the Principles (in bold print) 

which reflect the Corps’ official position, the text under 

each principle, as well as all other portions of this paper, 

express the views of this author and do not represent 

official Corps views.

The seven Principles were approved for public release in the spring of 2002 by the Corps’ 50th Chief 

of Engineers and Commanding General, LTG Robert 

Flowers, whose leadership and vision made them possible. The author was pleased to have been included as 

a member of the team that drafted the Environmental 

Operating Principles, along with its Doctrine and 

Implementation Plan.

Principle 1: Strive to achieve Environmental 

Sustainability. An environment maintained in 

a healthy, diverse, and sustainable condition is 

necessary to support life.

Striving for Environmental Sustainability is striving 

for life itself. The environment is our source for life, the 

font of biological evolution and the womb of evolutionary sustainability. Striving for its sustainability is simply 

saying that we want life, and the process of evolution, to 

continue – to be sustained.

Environmental Sustainability is the dynamic condition under which the Earth’s systems function together 

in a self-regulating and self-regenerating manner, maintaining a healthy interdependence while providing the 

essential ingredients for sustaining all life forms and 
424 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

serving as a platform for the evolution of human thought, 

for all time.

In this definition of Environmental Sustainability, 

we must place ourselves – both as individuals and as 

organizations. We are part of this planet’s environment. 

And the strength of our participation in its evolution is 

growing exponentially. What we create becomes part of 

the environment. And thought – what we think and the 

thought processes that lead to human-borne change – is 

now becoming an ever more powerful evolutionary force 

for the entire system.

Therefore, to grapple with Environmental Sustainability 

requires moving to a new plane of understanding. It is 

not a matter of defining the limitations of our impact on 

an external environment. The environment is internal to 

us, and we are internal to it.

Thus, in achieving Environmental Sustainability, 

we must include the reflective and reflexive nature of 

human creativity, considering the processes of both its 

own evolution and its participation in the evolution of 

the entire system.

In doing this, we must recognize the importance of 

diversity of human creativity resulting from diversity in 

the world of thought, just as we recognize the importance 

of biological diversity as the necessary source of both 

healthy change and stability in our planetary life-support 

systems.

Next, we must recognize the power of vision as the 

flame front of human creative evolution. The future of 

human creativity will not be the result of a monolithic 

vision, but rather the multifaceted jewel of many visions. 

In this future, each vision will contribute a creative piece 

to the whole, providing and sharing a partial identity to 

and with the whole, while still maintaining its essential 

individual identity and strength. This diversity in thought 

and vision mirrors the biological diversity out of which 

thought has been born. Thus, maintaining two diversities 

– biological diversity and diversity of thought – is at the 

heart of Environmental Sustainability.

In this regard, the history of human culture has led 

us well. Through it, we have arrived at a place in time 

where both institutions and technology have evolved 

sufficiently to support individual freedom in thought and 

action while at the same time facilitating essential interconnectedness and cooperation. But we are still immature 

in this process: mature enough to recognize we have a 

problem, but not mature enough to have resolved it.

All of this applies very powerfully to us, both individually and corporately. We all design, produce, monitor, 

regulate, and operate systems that interact with and, to 

varying degrees, modify the physical, chemical, biological, cultural, and institutional world around us. Our 

future lies in first, understanding the importance of our 

role, second, beginning to limit the damage we do to 

the integrated global system, and ultimately, transforming our understanding and our actions so that we move 

beyond sustainability – completely ending our harmful 

activities and then actually adding net value to our 

planet’s life-support engine.

Principle 2: Recognize the interdependence 

of life and the physical environment, and 

consider environmental consequences 

of Corps programs and activities in all 

appropriate circumstances.

Interdependence of life and the physical environment 

refers to the dynamic and mutually dependent relationship between all life forms, the Earth’s life-support 

systems upon which they depend, and the products of 

human thought and activity. It refers to life and to all 

systems that have evolved life: before us, in our time, 

and for all time. And it introduces the idea that we 

humans are part of an evolutionary and life-supportive 

system, albeit a relative newcomer in the evolutionary 

process. It is a principle which raises the question, 

“What part will the human newcomer play in the future 

process of evolution; a participating and life enhancing role, or the role of a blind stranger?” And then it 

challenges us to answer by accepting the affirmative, 

life-enhancing role.

It is also a principle that introduces, qualitatively, 

the idea of the health of the entire life-support system, 

especially in relation to the consequences of human 

thought and activity. Human thought and activity have 

become an intrinsic part of the evolutionary process, 

although seldom seen as such. Recognition of the evolutionary impact that human thought plays today and 

will play in the future is a major challenge of our time. 

Recognizing this fact implies accepting responsibility 

for our actions. And our unwillingness to recognize this 

fact belies our unwillingness, or our fear, of accepting 

responsibility for the well being of future life, our future 

lives included. It is a principle that challenges us to 

choose affirmatively, accepting responsibility for our 

decisions, and helping to lead a nation, and a world, 

to an enhanced future.

Recognizing the existence of interdependence between life and the physical environment implies a 

certain level of understanding. To this end, the principle 

makes imperative the development of our knowledge 

base, integrating the study of the so-called “natural” 

environment with the engineered and constructed 

environment. The principle urges us to recognize the 

wholeness of life. It urges us to open our eyes to a new 

paradigm in which human thought and activity is not 

divorced from the font of life that bore it. It challenges 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 425

us to give back to the planet’s life-support system its 

due, not just for it, but for it and us, because together 

we are one.

Principle 3: Seek balance and synergy 

among human development activities and 

natural systems by designing economic and 

environmental solutions that support and 

reinforce one another.

To achieve environmental sustainability, the ultimate 

goal should be to create a milieu within which the understanding and subsequent behavioral patterns needed 

to create a balance among all systems will be evolved in 

such a way as to make these decisions and actions not 

only the right thing to do, but also the thing that we would 

do naturally. In other words, the ultimate balance should 

be achieved by structuring a system in which freedom 

of choice and action is enhanced while making balance 

and synergy part of the natural order.

Often we mistakenly label the things created by 

humans as ‘unnatural’ or ‘constructed infrastructure,’ 

as compared with everything else, which we label as 

‘natural.’ This false dualism has been with us for millennia. It is time to change the way we think about 

ourselves in relation to the world around us. We must 

stop regarding human activity, and the things that result from that activity, as separate from nature. Human 

thought has evolved from nature, and so are the things 

that human thought produces. Other animals use tools, 

just not as extensively, nor with the comparable physical 

and intellectual capacity to seek existential understanding, accumulate knowledge, develop technology, reflect 

on the implications of change, and contemplate future 

scenarios.

We must remember that our journey of conscious evolution has just begun. It began several hundred thousand 

years ago. But in geologic time, we have just begun. So 

to look through this generation’s window in time and 

make dire predictions or judgments is like looking at a 

baby and thinking that it will be a failure because it is too 

small, uncoordinated, and makes uncontrollable messes. 

Culture is in the baby stage, or earlier.

This principle urges us to grow up, to view the world 

holistically, and to take responsibility for our new role in 

it. No longer are we simply passengers on an “infinitely” 

large planet capable of absorbing our geo-unconscious 

activity. Rather, we are discovering that we must take the 

helm and, leaving behind the role of passenger, become 

crew of our home in space. We are the masters of our 

fate, and we must be actively creative in evolving our 

planet.

Re-engineering our socioeconomic control mechanisms can be done alone only on paper. Their full 

implementation requires system wide adoption. However, 

there may be opportunities for individuals, teams, and 

organizations to initiate change by experimenting with 

widely supported concept demonstrations in local or 

regional settings.

Principle 4: Continue to accept corporate 

responsibility and accountability under the 

law for activities and decisions under our 

control that impact human health and welfare 

and the continued viability of natural systems.

Corporate responsibility is critical to achieving 

Environmental Sustainability. And corporate responsibility cannot exist without individual empowerment.

Corporate responsibility implies mission sensibility 

and effectiveness extending beyond the bounds of current 

circumstance and institutional boundaries and reaching 

to the limits of our understanding of the need for enhancement of human dignity and the support of all life. 

Accountability under the law means that everything we 

do must be legal, and the law must be interpreted to assure 

that all activities comply with it. But accountability goes 

beyond bending to existing conditions. Behind the law 

is the public good. And the public good demands that, 

when deficiencies appear in current law, as made evident 

by changed circumstances, new information, or better 

understanding, accountability under the law and to the 

public requires good faith attempts to initiate legislative 

corrective action.

The sustainability enterprise is, by definition, a 

pioneering effort. New frontiers will abound. This is 

the stuff of innovation. Creative efforts to plot new 

courses will inevitably require the re-evaluation of 

existing law. And when that occurs, the principle of 

corporate responsibility insists that we follow through 

with our best efforts at providing advice and counsel 

to the institutional bodies responsible for making law 

and writing regulations.

Accepting corporate responsibility, because our situation is so dynamic, will mean continually deepening our 

understanding of what is needed to attain environmental 

sustainability, and then taking the necessary actions to 

make it happen, whether through legal, organizational, 

or engineering means. Extending our understanding of 

the need for enhancement of human dignity and the support of all life will present the greatest opportunity for a 

deepened sense of corporate responsibility.

The goal in developing corporate responsibility is to 

make it internally motivated and self-sustaining. Each 

individual within the corporate body must be regarded 

as an intrinsic part of the whole, must feel a necessary 

part of the enterprise, and be afforded the training needed 

to understand the sustainability issue at its depths. And 
426 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to make corporate responsibility self-sustaining, and 

because our knowledge base is so dynamic, training must 

be ongoing throughout each individual’s career.

Perhaps critical to corporate responsibility is assuring 

that its leadership is fully in tune with the concept of 

Environmental Sustainability. Each senior leader must be 

able and willing to lead the corporate body in attaining 

sustainability, and be willing to stand up to the rigors of 

cultural, institutional, and political pressures from all 

sides. Environmental Sustainability must become an 

organizing principle around which the corporate body 

forms.

Principle 5: Seek ways and means to assess 

and mitigate cumulative impacts to the 

environment; bring systems approaches to the 

full life cycle of our processes and work.

To mitigate cumulative impacts implies that there 

exist, either in design or in fact, cumulative impacts of 

planned, current, or previous efforts which, due to their 

undesirable aspects, need to be alleviated by changing 

their design or by some other means. Seeking ways and 

means to assess and mitigate implies seeking an understanding of the dynamics of new environments that 

are formed by the integration of new systems into their 

former environments.

The task that this principle sets out is immense. Yet 

it does not suggest that we attain the ways and means 

for assessment and mitigation all at once. Seeking only 

starts the process. However, it sets a direction. The 

paths will be determined as we experience the journey, 

because as we go along, one insight will lead to another, 

one understanding to another, one discovery to another 

and one success to another. And on and on until we, in 

cooperation with others, reach our goals of understanding 

the nature of cumulative impacts and their assessment 

and mitigation, and can finally find the ways and means 

to attain Environmental Sustainability.

The path toward Environmental Sustainability cannot 

be walked alone. So part of seeking the ways and means 

to assess and mitigate cumulative impacts implies that 

we look for whatever is necessary to attain our goal. And 

clearly, one of the necessary elements in attaining this 

goal is partnership and cooperation with others. Thus, 

connectedness will necessarily be developed between 

individuals, as well as between appropriate government, 

university, and private sector organizations. Ultimately, 

because Environmental Sustainability is a global issue, 

global connectedness must be achieved. However, as 

with all the means of achieving our goal, seeking does 

not mean that we are there yet. It means that we begin in 

earnest to walk the walk. And as with technology issues, 

bridging the gulf between cultures, institutions, and policies will take a long walk. But seeking is to begin, each 

day starting from a new position along the path.

Principle 6: Build and share an integrated 

scientific, economic, and social knowledge 

base that supports a greater understanding of 

the environment and the impacts of our work.

A comprehensive knowledge base will be the font 

from which our decisions regarding Environmental 

Sustainability will derive. No investment will be more 

critical. Our current level of understanding is far below 

that required for a comprehensive approach to achieving 

Environmental Sustainability. An important first step is 

to recognize the complexity of the issue, realizing that it 

has scientific, economic, and social components.

Our knowledge base is the dynamic and integrated 

source for our understanding of the world around us, 

and includes information, experience, theories, created 

extensions of known facts, and any information related 

to our ability to think, understand, and create. The closer 

our knowledge base comes to expressing the totality of 

reality, the more fundamental is its reach, and the more 

integrating its architecture. And as it becomes more 

comprehensive and integrating, the rate of learning is 

accelerated. For it becomes more facile in its adaptation 

and assimilation of new discoveries and new insights, 

ever more efficient in stimulating the process of knowledge formation.

The understanding we have of our world comes from 

our knowledge base. Our minds provide us a model of the 

world. We divide our world into separate compartments 

so that we can attempt to wrap our minds around them 

and gain some limited understanding of how they work. 

This compartmentalization of our world is a way for our 

minds to create simplified models so that we can function. And because the current state of mind-technology 

mix is relatively primitive, the modeling capability of 

our minds is similarly limited. And so we build external 

models to help us. But these models, too, are dependent 

on our understanding and the technology of the day. 

As our understanding advances, and the technology to 

investigate and display information moves forward, our 

models improve. And as our models improve, our minds 

become better informed, change their views, and form 

new levels of understanding.

And out of these new levels of understanding and 

subsequent change in world view, new expectations are 

formed. And that makes all the difference. Because out 

of these new expectations comes the creative tension 

to change a world that is perceived differently and no 

longer meets those expectations, into a world that does. 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 427

And this fact makes it absolutely essential that we make 

a permanent and unbending commitment to building and 

sharing an ever-deepening knowledge base.

Principle 7: Respect the views of individuals 

and groups interested in Corps activities; 

listen to them actively, and learn from 

their perspective in the search to find 

innovative win-win solutions to the Nation’s 

problems that also protect and enhance the 

environment.

Respecting the views of individuals and groups is 

another key ingredient in achieving Environmental 

Sustainability. The founders of the United States established a great nation by demanding freedom and justice 

for all. Even as we are still working that out on the socioeconomic level, its truth rings loud and clear around 

the world. Never has it been more important that we be 

attuned to the eternal truth, so eloquently spoken by the 

late Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., that “until all are free, 

none are free.” These words, and the words of the U.S. 

Constitution and Bill of Rights, speak to all humankind. 

They say that each individual represents a diverse perspective, and that each individual’s view reflects that 

person’s creativity, and needs to be not only respected, 

but also nurtured. And they say that the lifeblood of any 

great endeavor is diversity of opinion and creativity, 

and that from a free and expressive people will come a 

great enterprise, whether a nation, or an organization, or 

a planet on the path toward transformation.

Conclusion

The health of the planet was not a consideration when 

most of our institutions and ideologies were formed, and 

that has introduced a fatal flaw in those systems as they 

exist and are applied in today’s world. To break out of 

the container formed by those flawed ideas and institutions, four hypotheses have been proposed to assist us in 

reshaping our world view and, eventually our institutions 

and ideologies, so that we can meet the challenges of a 

new reality. The four hypotheses are as follows:

Human consciousness has now advanced to the 

cutting edge of global evolution, and forms an organic 

whole with planet Earth. This hypothesis states that 

the evolution of human consciousness has created a new 

dimension in the life of planet Earth, and that the Earth 

and its newly derived reflective capacity form an organic 

whole. It is a combination and extension of two previously developed ideas: Teilhard de Chardin’s concept 

of the “noosphere” – the sphere of thought; and James 

Lovelock’s GAIA – that the Earth’s physical, chemical, 

and biological systems act as an organic whole.

Human culture is moving from a passive-reactive 

state, to an active-creative state. This hypothesis states 

that an over-arching world view of relative human powerlessness in the face of overwhelming global forces has 

formed a passive-reactive milieu, a limiting perspective 

of human capability, and has laid the foundation for 

many of our institutional and ideological beliefs. The 

recognition that we are, in fact, changing the planet, even 

though in a deconstructive way, brings us face to face 

with a cumulative power we previously did not think we 

had, and, if we are able to move beyond denial to grasp 

its reality, moves us inexorably to understand we can 

no longer remain in the passive-reactive state, but must 

evolve to an active-creative state in which we become 

actively involved in creating the future.

Human activity and human-created infrastructure are part of nature and not separate from it.

This hypothesis states that we, and everything we do 

and make, are part of nature; and that separating human 

activity and constructions from nature creates a false 

dualism leading to self-fulfilling reinforcement of this 

dualistic view. Human constructions are intrinsically no 

less ‘natural’ than the things built by ‘nature.’ Human 

thought is the product of nature’s evolution, and human 

activities and all the things resulting from them have 

grown from the seed of human thought. Often the things 

we produce don’t look much like nature, nor, often, do 

they function well with it. And iteratively, they don’t 

look like or function well with nature because, in the 

mind of the designer, they exist in separate worlds. As 

long as we hold the disjointed view we created, we can 

be assured of a continuing path away from sustainability. 

So until our dualistic view is abandoned, we will not be 

able to harmonize human activity with global systems. 

The mental partitioning of so called human-created and 

nature-created worlds produces a false dualism which 

limits and inhibits both our world view and the evolution 

of human thought and action.

Human consciousness, when it successfully integrates itself as an organic whole with global systems, 

is capable of evolving sufficiently to enable creation 

of an enhanced system with unknown limits. This 

hypothesis states that the noosphere, de Chardin’s interwoven sphere of human consciousness, recognizing 

itself as an organic part of global systems, will burst 

through the barrier of global sustainability created by our 

limited views, to evolve a world of unknown limits and 

potential – beyond sustainability. The capacity to move 

through the previously self-imposed barrier of limitation 

will manifest itself by transforming our experience into a 

paradigm in which we learn, not only to understand and 
428 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

sustain what has been created before us, but to build on 

that foundation by adding net value and creating new 

worlds with unknown limits.

These hypotheses led to a discussion of new ways 

to look at both policy and technology as they might be 

developed to support a sustainable world. In the policy 

domain, economic, social, and educational concepts were 

discussed with ideas for change that might engender hope 

and enhanced creative capacity for developing a sustainable world. In the technology domain, both information 

and energy were discussed as critical to social, economic, 

and environmental sustainability.

And finally, the seven Environmental Operating 

Principles of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 

promulgated in 2002, were offered as a starting point 

for both individuals and organizations to assist them 

in working toward integrated social, economic, and 

environmental sustainability. These were accompanied 

by the author’s interpretive text, broadened to include 

all parties.

References

Brown, Lester R. 2001. Eco-Economy: Building an Economy 

for the Earth. Earth Policy Institute, W. W. Norton & 

Company, New York and London.

De Chardin, Pierre Teilhard 1962. The Future of Man. 

Translated from the French by Norman Denny. Harper 

Colophon Books. Harper and Row, Publishers.

Gelbspan, Ross (2004). Boiling Point: How Politicians, Big Oil 

and Coal, Journalists, and Activists Are Fueling the Climate 

Crisis – and What We Can Do to Avert Disaster. New York. 

Basic Books. A Member of the Perseus Books Group.

Gore, Al August 15, 2004. ‘Boiling Point’: Who’s to Blame 

for Global Warming? New York Times.

Gore, Sen. Al 1992. Earth in the Balance: Ecology and the 

Human Spirit. Houghton Mifflin Company, Boston, New 

York, and London

Hertsgaard, Mark 1998. Earth Odyssey: Around the World in 

Search of Our Environmental Future. Broadway Books. 

New York.

Janzen, D. H. 1998. Gardenification of wildland nature and 

the human footprint. Science 279:1312-1313.

Janzen, D. H. 2004. How to conserve wild plants? Give the 

world the power to read them. Forward to book edited 

by Gary Krupnick and John Kress at the US National 

Herbarium to be entitled “Plant Conservation: a natural 

history approach” (University of Chicago Press).

Janzen, D. H. 2004. Now is the time. Philosophical 

Transactions of the Royal Society of London, B DOI 

10.1098/rstb.2003.1444

Lovelock, James 1979 & 1987 (with a new preface). GAIA: 

A New Look a Life on Earth, Oxford University Press 

paperback.

McDonough, William 2002. Cradle to Cradle: Remaking the 

Way We Make Things. Farrar, Strauss, and Giroux.

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2002. Environmental Operating 

Principles. http://www.hq.usace.army.mil/cepa/envprinciples.htm

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers 2003. Policy for Implementation 

and Integrated Application of the U.S. Army Corps of 

Engineers (USACE) Environmental Operating Principles 

(EOP) and Doctrine, Engineer Regulation (ER) No. 

200-1-5. http://www.usace.army.mil/inet/information/

usace-docs/eng-regs/er200-1-5/entire.pdf
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 429

Appendix 1.

A Thought Experiment

In a peaceful and restful state, think of a world in which you feel hope for your life and the lives of your loved 

ones.

Think of a world in which you have found a niche for your genius, in which you find satisfaction in your work, in 

your play, and in everything you do.

Think of a world in which you are able to listen to and communicate with anyone instantly, clearly, and accurately.

Think of a world in which you feel confident to successfully innovate and improvise to meet both your needs and 

those of others in dynamic situations with unknown outcomes.

Think of a world in which there is magic in our interactions, and music in the results.

And now, think of a living example (such as playing with a child, reading poetry, innovating a new process, thinking of those you love, or even of Love itself) of a kind of active-creative participation in an evolving future, each 

new moment being created seamlessly out of the old to create an integrated whole over time.

Now think of a world of the not-too-distant future which has become a symphony, with all people linked interactively through a multi-dimensional information and communications network to form a global jewel.

This is the world we will create, reaching sustainability – and beyond.

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•
430 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The extractive reserves of Acre in the west of Brazilian 

Amazonia were conceived as part of a strategy for 

sustainable development, based on the extraction of renewable natural resources such as natural rubber, brazil 

nuts, oils, resins and fruits (Allegretti 1990, Almeida 

1992). Such a strategy is considered necessary to act 

as a counter-balance to pressures for deforestation and 

cattle raising activities which have proved to be unsustainable. The study area selected for this study is the Sao 

Luis do Remanso Seringal (SLRS) located inside the 

Chico Mendes extractive reserve in the state of Acre. 

Compared to other areas of the reserve, the SLRS offers 

a “worst case” scenario in the study of land cover change 

and deforestation. The present study aims to analyse the 

dynamics of change operating in these remote areas over 

a certain time, namely between 1975 and 1989, a period 

were it is believed that deforestation in Amazonia was 

particularly intense due to public policies that stimulated 

the development of ‘new economic and agricultural’ 

frontiers.

Multi-temporal satellite images, from the Landsat 

MSS and TM sensors, were combined with the analytical capabilities of GIS to develop a methodology 

to measure, assess and monitor changes in the reserve 

landscape. Deforestation was observed as a series of 

distinctive patches against the background of forest 

cover (fig. 1). The study of patterns described by patches 

emphasizes the important relationships existing between 

spatial patterns and spatially explicit processes, which 

in this particular case are of an anthropogenic nature. A 

Relating Change Patterns to Anthropogenic Processes to 

Assess Sustainability: A Case Study in Amazonia

Libia Patricia Peralta Agudelo, GIS Senior Lecturer and Research Associate, CEFET-PR and 

the Institute of Sustainable Development, Paraná, Brazil

Abstract—This work focuses on identifying deforestation patterns and relating these 

to social processes in an extractive reserve of Acre (western Amazonia). Using multitemporal satellite imagery deforestation is observed as a series of distinctive patches 

against the background of forest cover. The study of patterns emphasizes the important 

relationships existing between spatial patterns and social and spatially explicit processes. 

Since human processes are scale-dependant, a series of indexes were used to assess the 

structure, function, and change of the spatial distribution of patches at two different scale 

levels: global and regional. The global level analysis is concerned with the identification 

of patterns of land-use change in the entire reserve. The regional level analysis uncovers 

patterns by observing that local populations are organized in individual family groups 

occupying specific land areas here described as landscape units. Conclusions show that 

certain areas are being more deforested than others due to the synergic combination of 

different factors. This is leading to an unbalanced shift from an economy based solely 

on rubber extraction to other types of economy. This study can assist in determining 

development strategies for the reserves that take into account the different social and 

spatial patterns observed.

Figure 1. Landsat satellite image for 1989. Deforestation is 

seen as patches.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 431

landscape ecology approach was adopted through the 

analysis of the relationships taking place between elements of the reserve’s landscape and considering three 

main landscape characteristics: structure, function, and 

process. Human processes are scale-dependant. A series 

of indexes were used to assess the structure, function and 

processes of the spatial distribution of patches at three 

different scale levels: global, regional and local. For the 

purpose of this paper, only the global and regional levels 

are discussed.

The Global Level Analysis

The Global level analysis was carried out using the 

images available for the entire study area. The main 

objective of this analysis was to propose a series of indices to assess how the cleared patches identified were 

changing structurally over time, and to uncover patterns 

of spatial distribution of patches at different scales.

In that sense, three main indices were suggested:

A Lacunarity index to assess patterns in the spatial 

distribution of patches at different scales and also to 

determine how gaps between cleared patches were 

changing over time.

A Patchiness exponent to assess the distribution of 

patches according to their size.

An Area-Perimeter Complicatedness exponent to 

assess drastic changes in patches’ shape that might 

indicate changes in land use practices.

Lacunarity Index

The lacunarity indices were calculated 

for the raster data sets available for 1975, 

1985, and 1989 In order to determine how 

the spatial distribution of clearings changed 

over time. This index is calculated by the 

use of a box size r that runs over the image, 

which previously converted into a binary 

map of forest and non-forest areas. The index 

calculates gaps between these two categories 

of cells. All binary maps had a grain size 

of 60 X 60 metres per cell. Lacunarity was 

calculated for r = 5 to 200 with an increment 

of box size of multiples of 5. Consequently, 

40 lacunarity values were obtained for each 

map. Output was obtained as ASCII text files 

and imported into a spreadsheet where results 

were plotted on a log-log graph of lacunarity 

versus box size shown in figure 2.

•

•

•

Discussion and analysis of results

Higher lacunarity values denote heterogeneous and 

larger gap sizes, while bends in the lacunarity curves 

indicate more regularity in the spatial distribution and 

the range of gap sizes between patches. Lacunarity 

curves for the 1975, 1985, and 1989 data are straight, 

decreasing almost linearly until the lacunarity value of 

1 is reached. Beyond this point, the curves bend slightly 

at r = ln 1.8 for the 1975 and at r = ln 1.65 for the 1985 

and 1989 data sets (fig. 2) and the 1975 data presents the 

highest lacunarity values of all data analysed indicating 

larger gaps between patches for that period. However, at 

a box resolution of r = ln 1.5 , the 1989 lacunarity curve 

bends upwards exhibiting higher lacunarity values than 

the 1985 curve, indicating more heterogeneity between 

gaps for 1989 than for 1985.

At higher box resolutions the curves almost overlap 

and rapidly approach zero, indicating that while the number of cleared patches increases, the variance between 

gaps decreases.

Conclusions from Lacunarity Analysis

The lacunarity index provided an insight as to how 

the cleared patches are spatially organised in the 

landscape. It was assumed that if gaps became more 

homogeneous at a given scale of observation, namely 

at 9 square km in average for all periods analysed, this 

reflected a specific pattern of spatial distribution due to 

social organization (family units) and land-use practices in the reserves. These results were, therefore, used 

•

Figure 2. Lacunarity indices for 1975, 1985 and 1989 data.
432 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to determine the extent at which to perform a more 

detailed analysis of the areas at a regional scale.

Changes observed in the lacunarity indices of multitemporal data provided a basis on which to assess 

changes in the spatial distribution of the cleared 

patches in the study area. The marked separation 

between the 1975 and the 1985 curves, suggests that 

between the mid 70s and mid 80s, the area was subjected to intense deforestation. The proximity of the 

1985 and 1989 curves indicates that deforestation in 

the area of study during that period was not significant. 

However, higher lacunarity values for 1989 up from 

a scale extent of 6 square km (r = ln 1.5) suggest that 

even though deforestation was not intense during that 

period, gaps between patches in 1989 became more 

varied than in 1985 due to the increment in size of 

some of the existing patches.

These results were considered to provide an insight 

on the temporal and scale dynamics operating in the 

deforestation process of the extractive reserves.

The Area-Perimeter Fractal Dimension 

Index

The fractal dimension index D describes how the 

quantity Q varies with scale. Q could represent the dimension of an area, perimeter, line, mass, etc. Usually, 

the fractal index is mathematically described by the 

equation,

Q(L) = L D (1)

where the exponent D represents the fractal dimension.

The use of the Area-Perimeter Fractal index in 

the global level analysis

In the context of the extractive reserves of Acre, 

patches with very complicated perimeters could be interpreted as representing a more or less “natural” habitat 

where rubber tappers are still involved in subsistence 

agriculture and depend largely on extractive activities for 

their survival. On the other hand, patches with regular 

edges (and usually greater in size) can be interpreted as 

being more significant in terms of agricultural practices 

and therefore, representing areas where there has been a 

shift from the traditional economic activities of extractivism to potentially more extensive clearings through 

agriculture and cattle ranching.

It is in that sense, the objectives of determining an 

Area-Perimeter Fractal index for the case study area are: 

to assess: drastic changes in patches’ perimeter (and extent) to identify shifts from an extractive-based economy 

to an agricultural-based economy over time and to determine similarities in economic practices by comparing 

fractal indices for the multitemporal data available

•

Discussion of methodology and results

Data for this analysis was obtained by using a macro 

written in the Arc/Info programming language, AML, in 

order to export data on area size and perimeter length into 

ASCII text files for each period available. Calculation of 

the fractal indices was done in a QuattroPro spreadsheet 

by compiling data into groups of different area sizes, 

namely areas less or equal to 15,000, 18,000, 37,000, 

200,000, and 250,000 square meters (fig.3). For the 1985 

and the 1989 data, it was observed that patches with an 

area of less than 15,000 square meters (1.5 ha) presented 

low fractal indices, because these small areas tend to be 

composed of fewer pixels and present smooth edges. 

When area size increases from 15000 until 18000 square 

meters (1.8 ha), the fractal index increases considerably, 

suggesting complex patches’ perimeters and therefore, 

economic activities that resemble natural phenomena. 

At area size values of lower than 37,000 square meters 

(3.7 ha) the dimension D falls dramatically suggesting 

the presence of more rectangular edges characteristic of 

large mechanised agricultural plots. At higher area sizes, 

it was observed that the fractal index D increases slightly, 

showing evidence of new clearings adjacent to the larger 

patches that define slightly more complex perimeters.

Main Conclusions from the Global 

Level Analysis

Dynamics observed in the study area show land use 

changed in the reserve, mainly from a rubber based to 

a more agricultural based economy. Main deforestation 

processes occurred between 1975 and 1985, a period 

that coincided with the Brazilian military regimes. The 

decrease of gaps between cleared patches observed in the 

1989 period can suggest the collapse of a future economy 

based in rubber extraction (table 1).

Figure 3. The Area-Perimeter Fractal index results for all 

periods.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 433

Regional Level Analysis

While the global level analysis was concerned with 

the identification of patterns of land use change taking 

as a basis the entire study area, namely the Sao Luis do 

Remanso Seringal, a more localized level of analysis is 

presented underneath. The idea of examining patterns 

of land use change at a regional level is based on the 

observation that population in the extractive reserves is 

organized in individual family groups to which a certain 

extent of forest is allocated. The extent of forest used and 

the group’s impact on it seems to vary according to three 

main criteria, such as are:

number of economically active family members, reflected in the size and number of cleared patches

accessibility to main transport routes from which 

goods can be traded and acquired

main economic activities undertaken by each group 

i.e. rubber extraction or agricultural plots

Discussion of Methodology and Results

In order to define regional units of study, raster data on 

the Sao Luis do Remanso Seringal was subdivided into 

smaller sub-areas, here referred to as regional landscape 

units. The null hypothesis formulated in this analysis is 

that structural changes within and between pre-defined 

regional units were random. However, if patterns were 

identified, it was believed that these might reflect specific 

interrelationships between cleared patches and social 

processes that might explain how the study area is developing and changing at a regional level. In that sense, 

a complementary goal of performing a regional analysis 

is to locate spatially the occurrence of specific processes 

that describe how each one of these regions is changing 

over time. Furthermore, by grouping units that presented 

similar changes over time, spatial and temporal patterns 

of regional land use change were identified. This analysis 

was carried out in four main stages by:

Defining the extent of regional landscape units.

•

•

•

•

Determining regional key descriptor attributes.

Determining a series of metrics based on spatial distribution of clearings, access to main transport routes and 

main land use activities. In fact, these metrics define 

the structural characteristics of each unit considered 

(Forman and Godron 1986). Metrics are tested towards 

their contribution to the analysis by a correlation 

matrix, whereby metrics considered not to offer additional information were discarded. With the use of 

a Principal Components Analysis technique, metrics 

were grouped into orthogonal composite factors

By identifying spatio-temporal patterns of change at 

the regional level, units are grouped according to their 

similarity using a Nonhierarchical Cluster classification technique. Here, units are classified according 

to the intrinsic combination of the structural metrics 

considered in the Principal Components analysis By 

categorising and mapping the classified clusters for all 

data periods available, the spatial location and “temporal evolution” of similar units was determined

Definition of the Extent of Regional 

Landscape Units

In the present case extent is considered as the size 

of the regional landscape unit on which to base the regional analysis. Due to the sparse nature of the spatial 

distribution of clearings observed in the study areas it 

was determined that each landscape unit should exceed 

the 1 km x 1 km extent recommended in the ITE Land 

Classification System for Great Britain (Haines-Young 

1992).

One of the findings of the Lacunarity index used at 

the global level analysis was that cleared forest patches 

appeared less randomly distributed at a scale of 9 square 

kilometres for the 1975 data and at 12 square km for 

the 1989. This knowledge led to the formulation of the 

hypothesis that at that scale of observation, a specific 

pattern of social spatial organisation was observable in 

the region. To confirm these results, a complementary 

•

•

•

Table 1. Main conclusions of the global level analysis.

Objective 1975 1985 1989 Index used

Characteristics of large and hetero- smaller gaps thus not many new Lacunarity

gaps between geneous gaps due larger patches clearings, just

patches to sparse small than in 1975, increment of

patches intense clearings existing ones

during decade

Patch shape as indica- more complex shapes at areas ≤18000 sqm, economy Area-perimeter fractal

tions of predominant based in traditional extractive methods, patches of greater index

economic activities sizes seem to refer to more systematic and agricultural 

plot clearings with smooth geometric shapes. 
434 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

study to determine the extent of regional landscape units 

through the development of hierarchical binary maps was 

conducted using the analysis and programming capabilities of Arc/Info.

This process was only performed on one of the data 

sets, namely the 1985 data set, as a single unit extent 

would be applied to all the data sets available. The 1985 

represented an intermediate period of data collection 

and, therefore, was believed to provide an average unit 

extent between all the data available. The analysis was 

conducted considering three scenarios, where the study 

areas were subdivided in units of approximately 3km x 

3km, 1km x 1km and 0.5km x 0.5 km. In that sense, the 

final results were three raster maps with cells denoting 

the presence and absence of clearings at different analysis 

resolutions, presented in figure 4.

Determination of Key Descriptor 

Attributes of Regional Landscape 

Units

Key descriptor attributes were defined by 

considering the hypotheses drawn from the 

observation of the links operating at a regional 

level delineated in the conceptual model of the 

reserves. Descriptor attributes were defined in 

relation to four main characteristics: patch, patch distribution, patch accessibility, and patch shape. Within each 

key descriptor attribute related structural attributes were 

considered (fig.5).

In order to extract the relevant key descriptor attributes from each landscape unit and to obtain these in a 

compatible format to be further analysed, the study was 

conducted using the Arc/ Info programming language, 

AML, in three main stages.

The study area was subdivided into the desired landscape units, namely 9 square kilometres.

Complementary programmes (.amls) were written to 

extract all relevant metrics from the data sets and write 

results into an ASCII text file.

Results were analysed through a Principal Components 

statistical method.

1.

2.

3.

Figure 4. Tests to 

determine ideal size 

of landscape unit.

Figure 5. Structural Key Attributes considered at the Regional 

level analysis.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 435

The Principal Components Analysis of 

the Variables Considered

Principal Components Analysis is a technique used 

for simplifying the information in a set of variables by 

identifying “principal components of variation” within 

the data. Results obtained from Principal Components 

analysis “re-describes” a given data set in terms of a 

smaller set of variables. So, components can be described 

as “composite variables” or “families” of relatively 

closely correlated variables. Thus, Principal Components 

Analysis identifies the similarities in spatial patterns or 

attributes of a data set, by “constructing new variables 

that are pair wise uncorrelated” (Mather 1976). Variables 

considered in PCA are assumed to be normally distributed where inter-correlated variables are grouped as new 

composite variables and are represented as orthogonal 

vectors in “theoretical space” where they are refereed to 

as “eigenvalues.” Eigenvalues describe the percentage of 

variability within the total data set that can be “accounted 

for” or “described by” the component (Ebdon 1985, 

Johnston 1980). The first component is, therefore, the 

assemblage of variables that has the maximum variation 

when correlated to all other variables in the data set. The 

first principal component represents the most important 

axis of variation within the data set, but its strength 

depends on the particular variables included. Generally, 

most of the variation contained in the data set can be 

explained by the three first principal components.

The analysis provided NINE principal components, 

from which only the first three components presented 

eigenvalues greater that 1.0. The percentage variance 

explained by these three components was 87 percent 

for the 1975 data, 86 percent for the 1985 data and 83 

percent for the 1989 data. Thus, Component I explained 

36 percent of the variance for the 1975 data, 37 percent 

of the 1985 data, and 31 percent of the variance in the 

1989 data. Components II explained around 28 percent 

and Components III and IV explained 13 percent and 10 

percent respectively for all data sets. Even though some 

variables scored highly in more than one component, 

it was assumed that variables would be considered as 

mainly contributing to the component where they exhibit 

the highest loadings. In that sense, a categorisation of 

each component was made possible.

In order to make comparisons between the results 

of the PCA obtained for all periods of the Sao Luis 

do Remanso Seringal possible, a within-group categorisation of the PCA loadings was attempted (table 

2). This was done by selecting the highest loadings of 

each variable and establishing to which component it 

was allocated. Table 1 illustrates the results of this categorisation by highlighting, loadings that have a value 

of 0.6 or greater in the same component for the three 

periods analysed. In that sense, it was concluded that 

the Component I was composed of variables related to 

the size and impact of the cleared patches, so it was 

categorised as an “Intensity of clearing” indicator. 

Component II included variables related to frequency 

and density of clearings per landscape unit, therefore, 

it was identified as referring to “Spatial Distribution of 

patches”. Components III and IV related mainly to the 

shape of clearings through the fractal complicatedness 

index D, and to the location of the units in relationship to the main existing access routes. Therefore, 

Components III and IV were interpreted as reflecting 

categories of “Land use and accessibility.” However, low 

loadings observed for the variable Distance to Roads 

at all instances considered suggest that the presence 

of the BR317 running outside the reserve’s boundaries 

has not a really significant effect in the intensity, size 

and distribution of clearings. Nevertheless, it should be 

noted here that this observation refers only to clearings 

within the reserve’s boundaries, as the satellite images 

available (fig.1) show intensive deforestation in areas 

adjacent to the highway.

Table 2. Loadings and Categorization of components I, II, III, and IV for all periods for the Sao Luis do Remanso Seringal.

Component I Component II Component III Component IV

Variables 75 85 89 75 85 89 75 85 89 75 85 89 C

AvgSize -0.8 0.68 0.91 -0.5 0.63 0.06 0.17 0.02 0.03 -0.0 0.27 -0.1

MinSize -0.7 -.02 0.25 -0.5 0.76 0.63 0.19 0.38 -0.5 -0.0 -0.3 -0.1 I

MaxSize -0.9 0.85 0.75 -0.1 0.22 0.54 0.06 -0.1 -0.2 0.02 0.34 -0.1

PerClear -0.9 0.96 0.92 0.35 0.00 -0.2 0.00 -0.1 -0.1 0.11 0.15 0.0

Freq -0.4 0.73 0.35 0.88 -0.5 -0.9 -0.6 0.10 -0.1 0.09 -0.3 0.09 II

Density -0.4 0.73 0.34 0.88 -0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.10 -0.1 0.08 -0.3 0.06

D_Compli 0.12 0.28 0.10 0.13 0.69 -0.0 0.83 0.39 0.54 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8

DistRiv 0.23 0.06 0.31 -0.1 0.21 0.18 0.25 -0.7 0.69 0.9 -0.4 0.32 III/IV

DistRoa 0.22 0.02 -0.3 0.45 -0.5 -0.4 0.58 0.57 -0.3 -0.2 0.09 -0.5
436 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Main Conclusions from the PCA in 

Relationship to Spatial Dynamics in the 

SLRS

It is considered that the PCA offers an understanding 

of the main sources of variance between the structural 

characteristics of cleared patches within the units analysed. Conclusions from this study are that the regional 

landscape units defined for the Sao Luis do Remanso 

Seringal study present high variability (differences) when 

analysed in terms of the “intensity of clearings,” followed 

closely by attributes related to the “spatial distribution of 

their cleared patches” and are less affected by categories 

reflecting “Land use and accessibility.”

The multitemporal comparison of the components 

results serves as an exploratory tool to formulate hypothesis related to the processes involved in regional 

land use change within the units of study, suggesting for 

example that in 1985, the variation between the patches’ 

size and shape was more affected by its accessibility i.e. 

greater patches were located near rivers, whilst for the 

1975 and 1989 data, the patches’ shape was more related 

to its accessibility and was independent from the patches 

numbers and spatial distribution.

Regional Landscape Change 

Patterns in the SLRS

In order to better relate the PCA results with landscape change patterns in the extractive reserves, these 

were grouped into clusters according to the similar combination of components scores. As a result, landscape 

units were mapped according to a cluster membership, 

determined by a value ranging from 1 until 5 (fig. 6). 

The description of the each cluster membership is described in table 3.

This mapping process uncovered spatial patterns 

formed by the distribution of similar regional units 

within the SLRS context. These patterns were not obvious from the observation of the raw image data and are 

considered relevant to define areas of critical sensitivity 

to deforestation and to provide understanding as to how 

similar areas are connected or isolated.

Results were interpreted following basic criteria, 

namely, by taking into consideration the number of units 

that were assigned to each cluster for each period of study. 

In that sense, it was determined that for 1975, units that 

presented small cleared patches and sparse distribution 

were dominant. By 1985, units that presented small 

clearings were still more common, however, a substantial 

increment in units presenting large cleared patches is 

observed. By 1989, the great majority of units presented 

large cleared patches sparsely distributed across each 

unit, indicating that clearings became widespread in the 

entire Sao Luis do Remanso Seringal context. When 

performing a spatial analysis of the clustered units with 

the GIS system, the following results were obtained for 

each year of study.

Conclusions

The general conclusion drawn from this study is that 

the reserve’s landscape was dominated by small and 

numerous patches in 1975, which by 1989 had become 

dominated by large and sparsely distributed patches. 

This provided evidence of the disappearance of small 

clearings or the clumping of existing clearings between 

1975 and 1989.

At a regional level, it was established that regions of 

the SLRS were being affected differently by deforestation 

and that this phenomena reflected social and economic 

processes taking place in the area. Two main processes 

responsible for the different regional deforestation patterns were identified and are described below:

Two main poles of deforestation located at the south 

and the north-west of the study area were determined.

A cluster of regional units that suffered the greater 

deforestation was located towards the south-east of 

the study area in the proximity of the BR317 highway. 

A second area where considerable deforestation was 

observed, though not as extensive as the previous one, 

was identified in the north-west of the reserve, near 

the confluence of the Acre River and one of its main 

tributaries. This evidence shows a pattern of greater 

deforestation linked to the presence of main access 

routes, suggesting that these are the main regions from 

where populations are gaining access into the area.

The main direction of deforestation of the reserve was 

determined as originating from the main highway into 

the forest interior.

By observing the spatial distribution of clusters for 

the three periods considered (fig. 7) it was observed 

that units seem to suffer a more dramatic deforestation in the direction away from the main highway into 

the reserve’s interior, whilst units located inside the 

reserve seem not to change as dramatically through 

time. In that sense, the main deforestation direction 

was established to be from the south-east to the northwest of the SLRS. At the south-east of the study area 

runs the BR317 highway.

The main conclusion from this analysis is that the 

BR317 highway seems to encourage greater deforestation 

than the presence of main rivers in the area.

1.

2.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 437

Table 3. Description of cluster categorisation for each period.

Categorisation of clusters by year

Clusters 1975 tot 1985 tot 1989 tot

1 Small patches, high 29 Small patches, low density, 21 Dominated by very large 9

density and sparsely tightly distributed patches, sparsely distributed.

distributed

2 Small patches, low 19 Dominated by small patches 16 Large patches very sparsely 20

density and sparsely with some large patches, distributed

distributed high density and sparsely 

distributed

3 Dominated by large 2 Dominated by large 14 Small and large patches, high 5

patches, high density and patches, high density and density and sparsely

sparsely distributed sparsely distributed distributed

4 Very large single patch 1 Very large patches sparsely 8 Large patches, high density 22

distributed and sparsely distributed

5 Dominated by large 5 Very large single patch 1 Large patches, low density 10

patches, low density and and tightly distributed

tightly distributed

Total 56 60 66

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Figure 6. Sample of clusters categories for the 1985 period.
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Introduction

Theories of neoclassical economics, which have occupied a privileged position of influence over national 

and international policies since the Second World War, 

view economic activity as a world unto itself, seeing 

the social as distinct from ‘pure’ economic abstraction. 

In contrast, economic sociology views economic activity as intrinsically embedded within the social at the 

individual, group, national, and cultural levels. Drawing 

on Durkheim, Weber, and Schumpeter, among others, 

Swedberg and Granovetter propose three core tenets of 

‘new’ economic sociology:

Economic action is a form of social action.

Economic action is socially situated.

Economic institutions are social constructions 

(1992, 6).

These precepts build on the work of Karl Polanyi, who 

argued, “the human economy, then, is embedded and 

1.

2.

3.

enmeshed in institutions economic and noneconomic. 

The inclusion of the noneconomic is vital” (1992, 34). 

The noneconomic, which neoclassical thought relegates 

to “externality,” is for Polanyi the more primordial, the 

ground upon which the economic stands, and contingently at that. Rather than existing as divorced abstractions, 

markets are multifaceted and dynamic forms of social 

organization that are in turn interlaced with individuals, 

nations, cultures and conceptions of personal and group 

identity at multiple levels.

Spillman suggests three foundational aspects of the 

social construction of markets. She claims that the objects 

of, parties to, and norms of market exchange all depend 

on historical and cultural contingencies. Her thesis suggests the possibility of variation over both nations and 

time, supported by the examples of the resistance to the 

commoditization of life in the development of the market 

for life insurance in the U.S., and the differential acceptance of child labor across societies (Spillman 1999). 

While the objects of exchange might seem self-evident 

Disembedded Ideologies, Embedded Alternatives: 

Agricultural Biotechnology, Legitimacy, and the WTO

Mark J. Philbrick, President, Terranet Consulting, Inc., San Francisco, CA

Abstract—Notions of market embeddedness highlight the dependency of markets upon 

social, cultural, and political infrastructures for their operation and legitimation. In contrast, narrow interpretations of the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements attempt 

to enshrine the primacy of free trade, institutionalizing the theoretical abstractions of 

neoclassical economics in a regime with substantial enforcement power. Though trade 

restrictions are permitted in order to protect the life and health of humans, plants, and 

animals, advocates of “free trade” insist that such measures be based on a risk assessment approach that manifests a constrained vision of science. The effort to articulate 

these disembedded economic and scientific ideologies in binding international law has 

catalyzed and inflamed public challenges to the legitimacy of WTO rules, processes, 

and foundational premises.

The current transatlantic WTO dispute over regulations governing the deployment of 

genetically modified organisms (GMOs) illuminates the crisis of legitimacy at multiple 

levels. Publics, especially in the EU, are increasingly wary of technologies perceived 

as posing possible risks to human or environmental health, and of the regulatory and 

scientific institutions charged with managing these risks. The paper argues that narrow 

conceptions of risk assessment and management are inadequate to maintain or restore 

public trust in situations marked by profound uncertainty and a perceived “democratic deficit.” Rather than promulgating the disembedded ideologies that it is seen as 

exemplifying, this case offers an opportunity for the WTO to embrace expanded and 

updated definitions of risk assessment and sound science. The threats that GMOs are 

perceived as posing to the human and natural environment have already engendered 

widespread protest. Failure to respond constructively would further erode the WTO’s 

already tenuous legitimacy, highlighting the unsustainability of paradigms that ignore 

the larger contexts of economic and scientific activity.
440 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

in a primitive barter economy, modern trading depends 

upon the enforceable institutionalization of notions such 

as intellectual property rights, currency exchange, and 

binding contracts. Likewise, 21st century markets lean 

heavily on the legalization of corporate personhood, both 

private and NGO, as well as personal identity standards 

such as social security numbers to validate actors in 

market exchange.

Perhaps most critically, markets depend on some 

modicum of shared norms in order to function effectively. Building on Polanyi’s suggestion that economic 

activity in both ‘primitive’ and post-industrial societies 

rests on a combination of reciprocity, redistribution, and 

exchange, only the last of which is addressed by neoclassical economics, DiMaggio argues that “a minimal 

commitment to norms of reciprocity and fair dealing is 

required for markets to operate at all” (1994, 37). While 

much of the work in economic sociology has focused 

on social networks and the intersubjective bases of 

market exchange (Granovetter 1985), social networks 

are themselves embroiled in, dependent upon, and in 

some cases contributors to specific political milieus and 

backdrops of cultural meaning and significance. At the 

microsocial level, trust and reciprocity play critical roles 

in the selection and maintenance of business relationships. DiMaggio asserts that shared cultural norms and 

values facilitate the development of such social capital: 

“without adding a cultural dimension to structural accounts of embeddedness, it is difficult to understand the 

negotiated, emergent quality of trust in many concrete 

settings, and the ability of entrepreneurs to construct 

networks out of diverse regions of their social worlds” 

(DiMaggio 1994, 39).

The “invisible hand” does not conjure shared cultural 

norms and institutions out of thin air. In her discussion 

of his work, Krippner elegantly summarizes Polanyi’s 

account of the institutionalization of free market 

ideology in the 19th century, noting the tremendous 

political investment required to create the conditions 

for modern markets: “markets, even in ideal form, are 

not the expression of primal, timeless instincts; they 

are rather fully social institutions, reflecting a complex 

alchemy of politics, culture, and ideology” (Krippner 

2001, 782). Alchemy is a notoriously variable process, 

liable to produce divergent results in different settings. 

Dacin, Ventresca, and Beal invoke cultural and political 

embeddedness in discussing the possibility of national 

variation in the legitimacy of market actors and institutions. Reviewing the literature, they find “distinctive 

institutional logics of action with consequences for the 

organization of industries and markets” among Europe, 

Asia, and the Americas, arguing, “Institutional features 

at the polity level drive patterns of economic activity” 

(1999, 322). The construction and operation of international trade institutions requires a delicate balancing act 

between disparate national economies and more importantly, the often-divergent cultural norms, values, and 

histories that underlie those economies.

The WTO inherits many of its principles from its 

predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and 

Trade (GATT). Finalized in 1947 as part of the Bretton 

Woods family of institutions, GATT was formulated 

with a clear memory of the disastrous “beggar-thyneighbor” protectionist policies of the interwar period. 

Ideologically grounded in Ricardo’s belief that reducing 

trade restraints increases overall welfare, the GATT assigns “pride of place” (Ruggie 1982, 381) to free trade 

and market rationality. While it affirmed the desirability 

of tariff reductions, and established the principle of nondiscrimination based on country of origin, GATT also 

included numerous safeguards and exemptions to allow 

nations to manage the impact of international liberalization on domestic constituencies. The U.S. resisted many 

of these exceptions, but acquiesced to the need to balance 

multilateralism and domestic stability, a compromise that 

Ruggie terms “embedded liberalism.”

Robert Howse traces the postwar evolution of embedded liberalism into an “ideology of free trade” in the 

hands of an international economic elite. Insulated from 

the political considerations that underpinned the original 

bargain, the close-knit network of experts that effectively 

administered the GATT came to see implementation 

thereof in strictly economic terms, effectively dropping 

the “embedded” portion of the bargain (Howse 2002). 

Aided in the 1980’s by conservative administrations in 

the U.S. and U.K that saw national regulations as vehicles 

for the payment of “rents” to special interests, momentum towards an agreement with stronger enforcement, 

expanded coverage, and strict limits on exemptions built 

among industrialized countries. The Uruguay Round of 

negotiations concluded in 1994 with the creation of the 

WTO, embodying a much purer commitment to free trade 

than did the GATT.

Although the WTO has 600 employees, a budget of 

just over $US 130M, and a headquarters in Geneva (WTO 

2004), it is more accurately seen as a set of rules and 

processes serviced by an organization and undergirded 

by a philosophy of trade liberalization. In addition to the 

principle of non-discrimination among member states, 

themes of international harmonization and requirements 

that national measures minimize their “trade-restrictiveness” pervade the official texts (WTO 1994a). Even 

allowable trade restrictions are carefully constrained in 

these terms, e.g. in the preamble to the Agreement on 

the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures 

(SPS):
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 441

“Reaffirming that no Member should be prevented 

from adopting or enforcing measures necessary to 

protect human, animal or plant life or health, subject to 

the requirement that these measures are not applied in 

a manner which would constitute a means of arbitrary 

or unjustifiable discrimination between Members where 

the same conditions prevail or a disguised restriction on 

international trade” (WTO 1994b, italics original).

The WTO also incorporates new agreements on intellectual property, services, and non-tariff barriers to trade, 

as well as a binding dispute resolution process. The texts 

seek to establish the rules for international trade, enshrining a particular set of principles as the norm. To the degree 

that these principles reflect an excessive emphasis on the 

abstracted conception of markets as “purely” economic, 

they are disembedded, and their institutionalization is 

an attempt to embed disembeddedness as the governing 

principle of international economic interaction.

It may be instructive to recall that Ricardo developed 

his theory of comparative advantage, the gospel of free 

trade, in the context of the mercantilist economies of 

his day, in which capital was relatively immobile by 

21st century standards. Further, he made no attempt to 

consider distributional effects: even if reduced tariffs increase aggregate wealth, specific individuals and groups 

may still suffer. The GATT sought to address these and 

other limitations of economic theory by embedding 

trade agreements in larger social, political, and cultural 

contexts. The decomposition of the GATT bargain into 

a narrow ideology of free trade is a step backwards; the 

attempt to entrench this idealized vision is not a necessary or desirable evolution but a strategic move in the 

struggle for control over the institutions upon which 

global markets depend.

The WTO is a nominally democratic organization: 

decisions are made by consensus, and each member nation has an equal vote. In practice, however, proposals 

are negotiated among key parties behind closed doors, 

and presented to the balance of the membership for an 

up/down choice. Though countries such as the U.S. have 

elected governments, trade delegations are appointed, 

and subject to capture by vested interests (McMichael 

2000). Further, while the original treaty required ratification by national parliamentary bodies, such as the U.S. 

Senate, the WTO agreements were explicitly designed 

as an all-or-nothing ‘single undertaking’, precluding 

any possibility of domestic modification. In short, the 

gap between WTO rules and direct citizen participation 

is yawning. Combined with the increasing influence of 

WTO rulings on domestic agricultural, environmental, 

and consumer policies, accusations of a “democracy 

deficit” shock little (Verweij and Josling 2003; Woods 

and Narlikar 2001).

The problems of “regulation without representation” 

are exacerbated in Europe. In addition to the implicit tension between national and international measures, the EU 

struggles with a ‘democracy deficit’ of its own. Finding 

trade policy an especially acute manifestation of the 

perceived crisis of pan-European institutions, Meunier 

(2003) separates “process” and “outcome” legitimacy in 

analyzing the possibility of using the European experience as a model for international governance. Effective 

democracy, in her view, requires much more than free 

and fair elections. Rather, both the processes and effects 

of binding collective decisions have structural, social, 

and cultural components, and the perceived legitimacy 

of any given set of institutions or laws entails a complex 

interaction among all of these factors.

Nanz and Steffek traverse sympathetic ground in their 

criticism of WTO legitimacy. Suggesting that new conditions require new conceptions, they offer an expanded 

definition of democracy as “understood as a framework 

of social and institutional conditions that facilitate the 

expression of citizens’ concerns and ensures the responsiveness of political power” (2004, 318). Although 

globalization is not a new phenomenon, the degree and 

speed of international interconnection and interdependence in the early 21st century exceed that of previous 

incarnations, presenting new governance challenges. As 

Dunning argues, the pace of creative destruction of social 

and relational capital may well lag behind that found 

within the financial and technological arenas (2000). The 

evolution of new forms of democratic control, though 

the process will likely be fitful and time-consuming, is 

no less important in the development of sustainable societies than more easily indexed indicators. Abstraction 

and simplification are of great value in multiple domains 

so long as they are acknowledged as such. Mistaking 

abstraction for reality, or more egregiously attempting 

to impose oversimplified abstraction as legislated reality 

can conflict combustively with social and cultural memories and identities. The transatlantic WTO dispute over 

agricultural biotechnology is both an explosive example 

in its own right, and a representative case of the governance struggles likely to characterize the coming decades 

as global human society attempts to come to grips with 

the consequences of its self-anointed successes.

Disembedded Complaints

The EU has been less accepting of genetically modified crops than much of the western hemisphere. As of 

2002, Europe boasted less than 1 percent of the global 

hectarage of GM crops, the vast majority of which is 

in North America (James 2003). After approving a 
442 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

number of GMOs for either import or cultivation between 

1994 and 1998, representatives of five member states 

announced their intention to suspend any new authorizations, pending the development of new rules specifying 

labeling and traceability standards for GMOs (Council of 

the EU 1999). This declaration is known as the de facto 

moratorium, and has been a focus of contention.

The EU moratorium has affected American corn 

farmers, as Monsanto’s Bt Corn has not been approved 

for human consumption in Europe. In 1997, the U.S. 

exported roughly 1.6 million tons of corn to Europe, 

valued at just over $305M. In 1999, the figure was 12.7 

thousand tons, worth $1.4M (Pew 2003; USDA 2003). 

Additionally, developing countries such as Zambia have 

rejected shipments of U.S. food aid partly for fear of 

contaminating their corn crops, restricting their ability 

to export to European markets, thus drawing U.S. government ire. After years of public squabbling, the U.S., 

Canada, and Argentina (the world’s leading exporters of 

GM products) lodged formal complaints against the EU 

with the WTO in May of 2003. The three cases have been 

combined, and the parties made their first written submissions to the dispute panel in April and May of 2004.

The complainants allege that the moratorium violates 

the provisions of the SPS agreement, among others. 

In particular, they claim that both the moratorium and 

several specific national import or marketing bans contravene article 8 and Annex C by imposing an “undue 

delay” in approval procedures. Defining the moratorium 

as a “measure” covered by the treaty, they assert that it 

is not supported by scientific evidence, as required by 

article 2.2, nor based on a risk assessment as specified in 

article 5.1 and Annex A. Finally, they aver that the EU 

has applied “arbitrary or unjustifiable distinctions” that 

have resulted in a “disguised restriction on international 

trade”, contrary to article 5.5 (Canada 2004; United 

States 2004).

In addition to the formal parties to the dispute, at 

least two groups have submitted amicus curiae briefs 

to the dispute settlement panel. The authors of the more 

academic of the two submissions (Winickoff 2004), 

renowned experts in risk analysis from both sides of 

the Atlantic, argue that the complainants’ case fails to 

recognize the evolving nature of the science of risk assessment. Recent scholarship, they note, increasingly 

questions the assumptions of certainty, knowability, 

absolute objectivity, and exclusive expert judgment implicitly characterized by the complainants, developments 

that reflect directly on the appropriate interpretation of 

the standards of sufficient scientific evidence and risk 

assessment referenced in articles SPS 2.2, 5.1, and annex 

A. As the EU argues in its response, the “measures” in 

question should properly be considered under article 5.7, 

which allows for temporary measures in cases of scientific uncertainty; the complainants make no meaningful 

mention thereof (EC 2004).

The briefs further highlight the observation that understandings of risk, risk assessment, and sufficient scientific 

evidence vary across cultures and among situations. The 

dynamics of public confidence are also context-specific, 

underlining the need for differential national consultation styles and schedules. Canada’s submission cites a 

previous Appellate body ruling establishing each (WTO) 

member’s “prerogative” and “implicit obligation” to determine its own appropriate level of protection (Canada 

2004, 89). In contrast to the Canadian and U.S. arguments, both amicus briefs recognize public participation 

in the risk analysis process as a necessary element of this 

determination. The second brief, presented by a diverse 

international coalition of NGOs, also notes the unique 

political environment of the EU in advocating against a 

finding of undue delay (Amicus Coalition 2004). Both 

briefs also display an understanding that the development 

of local legitimacy is a critical element of risk assessment, 

a comprehension sorely lacking in the complainants’ 

documents. Perhaps most strangely, the EU lifted the de 

facto moratorium in May of 2004, issuing its first GMO 

approval since 1998, yet the U.S. and Canada persist in 

their case. Though other interpretations are possible, it is 

not difficult to conceive this dispute action as an attempt 

to establish binding precedent via an attack on interim 

procedures that were never designed to withstand WTO 

challenge, an opportunistic effort to embed disembeddedness.

Towards Embedded 

Alternatives

Disembeddedness, as discussed so far, might be 

summarized as the routinized operationalization of 

simplified abstractions without adequate regard for the 

complexities of empirical reality, a characterization that 

nicely captures the attitude toward scientific justification 

exemplified by the U.S. submission. Winickoff describes 

the U.S. understanding of risk assessment as “a factually 

grounded, objective, and value-free analytic exercise 

requiring (1) precise identification of possible harms to 

human health and the environment, and (2) use of formal, expert-based assessments of the likelihood of such 

harms” (2004, 4).

While perhaps sound by Popperian criteria, this 

approach utterly fails to account for both the inherent 

limitations of laboratory experimentation in identifying unknown hazards and the social context of risk 

assessments. The flaws of such an abstract conception 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 443

of science parallel those of neoclassical economics; risk 

assessments, and the science thereof, are inextricably 

embedded in their surrounding societies. Attempts to 

enshrine simplified abstractions of issues of cultural importance as the basis for policy decisions are destined to 

engender political conflict; embedding disembeddedness 

is not a legitimacy enhancing activity.

Funtowicz and Ravetz’s intuition that “the science 

involved in risk assessments is somehow radically different from that of classical lab practice” (1992, 252) 

catalyzed their efforts to develop a model for “postnormal” science. In response to what they saw as the 

glaring omission of considerations of both uncertainty 

and values in risk assessment, they offer an alternative 

to the classical definition of risk = hazard * exposure. 

Noting that assessments of hazard and exposure are 

subject to both significant scientific contention and variability of public perception in real-life situations, they 

propose alternative components of risk definition rather 

than hazard and exposure, their diagram “has as its axes 

systems uncertainties and decision stakes” (1992, 253, 

italics in original). Situations that score low on both axes 

fall within the jurisdiction of applied science; problems 

of moderate uncertainty and medium stakes are amenable 

to ‘professional consultancy’, which combines technical knowledge with strong practical experience. When 

“facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high, and 

decisions urgent” (1992, 253-4), post-normal science 

reigns.

Extending Science

Funtowicz and Ravetz’s identification of decision 

stakes as a critical factor grounds their model in everyday 

reality, and leads directly to the inclusion of non-scientists 

in risk assessment. Aware of the radicalism of their ideas, 

they explicitly call for a “new political epistemology of 

science,” one that incorporates both “extended facts” and 

“extended peer groups” (1992, 252-4). As Wynne points 

out, the acknowledgement of uncertainty on the part of 

the scientists provides a critical bridge in facilitating 

the development of “the hybrid communities necessary 

for doing the intellectual and political work of building 

robust multidimensional policies” (Wynne 2001, 3). In 

discussing his research with hill sheep farmers near the 

Sellafield/Windscale nuclear complex in the aftermath 

of Chernobyl, he relates how the scientific culture of 

control and knowability both decreased the effectiveness 

of the scientists and degraded their legitimacy with the 

locals. By insisting on the accuracy of their preconceived 

radioactivity diffusion models (later proven to be based 

on improper soil types), and ignoring farmers’ comments 

in designing feeding experiments (which were eventually 

abandoned for the reasons stipulated by the farmers), the 

scientists ignored vital data, and discredited themselves 

with the very constituency they ostensibly served (Wynne 

1989, 1996).

Astutely, Wynne also draws more general conclusions. 

Arguing for extending scientific “peer groups” in consonance with Funtowicz and Ravetz, he observes how 

the farmers perceived the scientists’ flagrant disregard 

of their hard-earned wisdom as a threat to their social 

identity. Carefully privileging neither the farmers nor 

the scientists, and recognizing the challenges inherent 

in communicating across divergent frames of reference, 

he strongly advocates extended peer participation in risk 

assessment. Wynne’s beliefs find some WTO support. In 

EC-Hormones, the WTO’s Appellate Body expressed 

concern about attempts to constrain the definition of 

the risk assessment required by the SPS agreement in 

a narrow scientific straitjacket. In overturning language 

suggesting that risk assessments must articulate a quantifiable probability of occurrence, the Body stated:

“However, to the extent that the Panel purports to 

exclude from the scope of a risk assessment in the sense 

of Article 5.1, all matters not susceptible of quantitative 

analysis by the empirical or experimental laboratory 

methods commonly associated with the physical sciences, we believe that the Panel is in error... It is essential 

to bear in mind that the risk that is to be evaluated in a 

risk assessment under Article 5.1 is not only risk ascertainable in a science laboratory operating under strictly 

controlled conditions, but also risk in human societies as 

they actually exist, in other words, the actual potential 

for adverse effects on human health in the real world 

where people live and work and die.” (WTO 1998, §172, 

italics added).

Day-to-day practitioners have visceral, real world 

experiences often otherwise unavailable to laboratory 

scientists, and the combination of the two perspectives 

yields a much richer data set for risk analysis. Extended 

peer groups provide extended facts in support of an expanded political epistemology of science; ‘embedded’ 

risk assessment holds forth the possibility of improving 

empirical quality as well as public legitimacy.

More socially, cases of uncertainty and high stakes 

create a volatile and often controversial brew; public 

involvement is essential to capture the multivalent dimensions of risk in such settings. Lay populations tend to 

emphasize possible consequences in their evaluation, especially irreversible ones (Slovic 1992). More generally, 

publics across the globe tend to include a much broader set 

of parameters when contemplating risks than do experts 

(Renn 1992). Factors typically excluded from professional 

calculations include whether or not the risks are voluntary, 

whether those subjected to risks have reasonable access 

to information about the possible consequences of their 
444 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

actions, and the degree of culpability of those responsible 

for managing risky activities, should incidents occur 

(Marris 2002). Publics also view the trustworthiness of 

the operating institutions as an essential element of possible risk, rather than an external factor. Characterizing 

lay people as ignorant, Luddite, or irrational, because their 

attitudes and opinions fall outside the scope of narrowly 

conceived risk assessment exacerbates their perception of 

the threat posed by the relevant institution, further degrading its trustworthiness and legitimacy, and intensifying 

sensations of danger (Wynne 1992).

Differential Legitimacy

Winickoff emphasizes that risk framings, assessments, 

and legitimacy are all culturally contingent. Given the importance of the organizations operating and promulgating 

technologies in public evaluations, differing national perceptions of crucial actors comprise a salient element of risk 

assessments. In their examination of 1999 Eurobarometer 

data and 2000 American survey results, Priest, Bonfadelli, 

and Rusanen (2003) found a strong inverse correlation 

between the size of the “trust gap” between industry and 

environmental or consumer organizations and favorable 

attitudes toward agricultural biotechnology. When industry and environmental groups have similar credibility, 

as in the U.S., public attitudes tend to be encouraging of 

GM crops. In countries where environmental groups are 

seen as substantially more trustworthy than industry, e.g. 

France and Denmark, support for agbiotech is low. These 

findings are consonant with Spillman’s (1999) focus on 

the cultural construction of the objects of and parties to 

market exchange. In the case of agricultural biotechnology, the legitimacy of the parties is at much at issue as the 

technologies themselves.

Grappling with trust issues, spawned in part by the 

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) crisis and 

the Belgian dioxin scare, the EU has funded extensive 

research on public perceptions of science and regulation. 

One such study, titled “Public Perceptions of Agricultural 

Biotechnology in Europe (PABE),” employed multiple 

in-depth focus groups in five countries and several 

phases, seeking to identify “the underlying factors shaping viewpoints, rather than the viewpoints themselves” 

(Marris 2002). In contrast to the industry tenet that scientific ignorance drives public resistance, focus group 

participants based their concerns about GMOs on their 

experiences with the fallibility of human technological 

organizations and regulatory schemes, and their acceptance of irreducible uncertainty in risk assessment. 

Although BSE is often seen as a cause of opposition to 

GMOs, and participants did make frequent reference 

thereto, they saw the governmental failures (and initial 

denials of risk) as exemplary of normal operations, not as 

an aberration. Rather than expressing blanket opposition 

to genetic engineering, focus group members more commonly reacted negatively to the seemingly surreptitious 

introduction of GMOs into the food supply as common 

additives without advance notice. Participants also objected to the lack of labeling, the failure of proponents 

to acknowledge uncertainty regarding unintended consequences, and the mismatch between industry rhetoric 

about ‘feeding the 21st century’ and the products commercialized to date.

Again, these concerns relate less to the technologies themselves than to the equity of their deployment, 

and public trust in the deployers. Should the WTO 

rule against the EU, Europeans would likely perceive 

a violation of their sovereign ability to determine the 

legitimacy of participants in their markets as both parties and objects? Given the cultural centrality of food, 

many may also perceive an affront to their individual 

and social identities, further stiffening their resistance, 

and undermining WTO trustworthiness. The EU and its 

member governments are well aware of their publics’ 

sentiments – officials have repeatedly cited the need to 

restore public trust as the rationale for developing new 

assessment and labeling regulations. Their submission 

to the WTO argues that the moratorium was necessary 

in order to allow adequate time to permit sufficient public participation in the formulation of new guidelines, 

as well as to complete longer-term studies such as the 

U.K.’s Farm-Scale Evaluations, which measured the 

impact of entire suites of GMO farming practices on 

local biodiversity (PMSU 2003). A ruling against the 

EU would be seen as valuing trade interests over both 

democratic processes and comprehensive science, further 

souring European opinion towards both agbiotech actors 

and the WTO.

Conclusion

The WTO is commonly seen as personifying the negative aspects of globalization. Its commitment to reducing 

barriers to trade is seen as leveling the playing field in 

favor of the powerful, and its removal from ordinary citizens has created a profound “democracy deficit” in public 

eyes. To the degree that a narrow conception of risk assessment continues to infuse its rulings, a disembedded 

scientific ideology joins the abstractions of neoclassical 

economics to create a driving philosophy increasingly 

at odds with market, social, and environmental realities. 

However, the current transatlantic dispute over biotechnology offers an opportunity for change.

The arguments of the two sides reflect two competing interpretations of the WTO agreements; the 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 445

European position manifests a more sustainable view 

of the appropriate relationships between trade, science, the environment, and society. A finding by the 

dispute settlement panel and the Appellate Body that 

the European moratorium falls properly under article 

5.7 of the SPS agreement as a precautionary measure 

in the absence of sufficient scientific evidence would 

signal a dramatic shift. Though a legislative solution, 

perhaps a renegotiation of the SPS and related texts to 

embrace a comprehensive version of the precautionary 

principle, such as articulated in the Cartagena protocol, 

and to more explicitly recognize the right of members 

to establish their own rules of market legitimacy, would 

be more appropriate in the longer term, a ruling substantially in favor of the EU would constitute a very 

constructive step. The alternative would further degrade 

the legitimacy of the WTO, diminishing its effectiveness 

as citizens demand domestic policies increasingly at 

odds with a ‘pure’ ideology of free trade. Markets, and 

market institutions, are inextricably embedded in the 

social, cultural, and political; pursuing ideologies that 

advocate otherwise is a prescription for social collision, 

and ultimately unsustainable.

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Human Institutions and 

Processes
448 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Traditional Forest Management

What is now known as the province of Newfoundland 

and Labrador is two separate land masses. Newfoundland 

is often referred to as the island portion of the province 

and has a total land mass of 11.1 million hectares (ha). 

Labrador is located northwest of the province of Quebec 

and has a land mass of 29 million hectares.

Since the turn of the 15th century, the people of 

Newfoundland have been steadily evolving in the way 

they interact with the forest around them (Griffin 1979). 

Griffin used the following headings to define the history 

of forest management in Newfoundland and Labrador:

1. The period of destruction: 1497 to 1880

Exploitation and protection: 1880 to 1934

The foundation of an administrative framework: 1934 

to 1949

The beginning of extensive forestry: 1942 to 1972

The forest of Labrador has seen limited development 

compared to the island of Newfoundland. Traditional use 

of the Labrador forest was primarily based on its utilization by Aboriginal peoples, Innu and Inuit, for subsistence 

living until the 20th century. Even today, sustainable forest 

management in Labrador is at a much smaller intensity 

with a harvest allocation of only 30 percent of the annual 

allowable cut (AAC). Forestry in Labrador is seen as a 

co-management challenge by the Innu Nation and the 

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador.

The island is a different story. Coastal regions of the 

island saw intensive development up until the late 1800s. 

2.

3.

4.

Using Biodiversity Indicators to Assess the Success of 

Forecasting Adaptive Ecosystem Management: The 

Newfoundland and Labrador Experience

C. Sean Dolter, Project Manager, Western Newfoundland Model Forest Inc., 

Corner Brook, NL

Abstract—This paper reports on an initiative referred to as the Biodiversity Assessment 

Project (BAP). A suite of tools is being developed to assist forest managers in assessing 

the predicted future forest conditions of Newfoundland and Labrador’s forests under 

a variety of management scenarios.

Since 1999, the Western Newfoundland Model Forest partnership has worked with the 

Institut Québécois d’Aménagement de la Forêt Feuillue (IQAFF) to develop a suite of 

strategic planning tools that assess the impact of various forest management scenarios 

on selected biodiversity indicators. This original approach began with Millar Western 

Forest Products Ltd. (MWFP) in Alberta, Canada, in cooperation with Peter Duinker, 

Lakehead University, and is now being modified to fit the Newfoundland and Labrador 

forest condition.

The preliminary results show that forest management actions can have significant impact 

on various biodiversity indicators, depending on the selected management scenario.

There are several components to BAP. The coarse filter layer examines the ecosystem 

diversity and landscape structure indices. The fine filter layer focuses on species-specific Habitat Suitability Models (HSMs). WNMF is also defining the natural disturbance 

regimes for western Newfoundland and comparing the selected biodiversity indicators 

between a natural forest condition and a managed forest. This future control forest will 

be used to set the natural range of variation on each biodiversity parameter being used 

for assessment.

The BAP tools will also be developed to assess central Newfoundland eco-regions so 

they can be used throughout the province and applied to specific situations, such as 

fire-dominated ecosystems. The BAP will begin to be incorporated in the provincial 

wood supply analysis starting in 2005 as a prototype assessment tool.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 449

Trees were used for building homes and commercial 

structures, boats, fishing flakes, stages, and for fuelwood. Three miles in from the coastline was considered 

the “three mile limit” and allowed fisherman to cut the 

forest within this area (Nazir and Moores 2001) without 

restriction. Insular forest utilization before then was 

based on subsistence activities of the Beothuk Indians. 

European interests turned toward the forest in the mid 

to late1800s as the sawmill industry began to expand. 

In the early 1900s, the pulp and paper industry began to 

be the primary forest-based industry. Beginning on the 

west coast of the island, the pulp, and paper industry 

swept across the province, utilizing the most merchantable and accessible stands. For the past 100 years, forest 

management has evolved from forest protection to timber 

management to multiple use management, and today, 

sustainable forest management (SFM) (Newfoundland 

Forest Service 2003).

Evolution to Sustainable Forest 

Management

Nazir and Moores suggested that Griffin could add 

two additional categories to the evolution of forestry in 

Newfoundland and Labrador to include:

Integrated management: 1972 to 1990

Sustainable forest management: 1990 to present (Nazir 

and Moores 2001)

Integrated management required managers to take a 

larger view of their activities when involved in resource 

management. Having to integrate all parts of the resource 

equation to obtain a harmonious whole was the greatest 

challenge, causing conflicts with inter-governmental 

policies and responsibilities. After years of striving for 

accommodation and compromise, managers began to 

bring issues together and unite under common resource 

objectives (Mitchell 1986).

With the Canadian Council of Forest Ministers 

(CCFM) embracing the Criteria and Indicators definition of sustainable forest management (CCFM 1995), 

forest managers and decision-makers now had to think 

outside of anthropogenic causes and effects and begin 

understanding ecological processes outside their realms 

of expertise. The six criterion for SFM encompass every 

element of forests, not just the elements that are impacted 

directly by harvesting, road building, or silviculture. 

Talking about sustainable forest management is one 

thing - understanding the complexities of interactions is 

another. Agreeing to working within a local level indicators framework, an essential component of CCFM’s SFM 

framework, also meant tracking temporal performance 

indicators and setting thresholds for variability in indicator performance. Newfoundlanders and Labradorians 

5.

6.

now had to examine the gaps in their resource knowledge 

base and begin being accountable for their resource 

management decisions.

The Challenge of the SFM Process

Industry, government, and community organizations 

had to become more unified to take on the new challenges of resource management. In 1992, the Western 

Newfoundland Model Forest (WNMF) was formed as 

part of the national model forest network. Its diverse 

range of partners set the stage for formulating approaches 

to SFM in light of limited resources, both financial and 

knowledge-based. A community-based stakeholder 

organization has the ability to cut through red tape and 

leverage resources from a number of agencies and programs. The number one priority of the WNMF has been 

to develop a framework to help evaluate the effects of 

long-term forest management activities on forest structure, ecosystem diversity and a select set of wildlife 

species. This unified approach to address the challenges 

of SFM has been called the Biodiversity Assessment 

Project (BAP) (Duinker and others 2000). BAP is the 

focus of this paper.

Process Inclusiveness

BAP provides an opportunity for those with an academic and management interest in forest connectivity and 

fragmentation, species utilization of habitat, and natural 

forest succession to come together as a community to 

assist managers in resolving the ecological challenges 

confronting them. Striving to achieve SFM requires 

forecasting and monitoring the effects of present day and 

future management activities on suites of indicators. The 

approach BAP adopted was to use local level indicators 

of biodiversity that could be both used in monitoring and 

in forecasting ecological impacts.

In defining SFM, Criteria and Indicators (CIs) are 

divided into two separate components. Ecological CIs 

are illustrated under the following titles:

Conservation of Biological Diversity

Maintenance and Enhancement of Forest Ecosystem 

Condition and Productivity

Conservation of Soil and Water

Forest Ecosystem Contributions to Global Ecological 

Cycles

Socio-economic CIs focus on the last two titles:

Multiple Benefits to Society;

Accepting Society’s Responsibility for Sustainable 

Development (CCFM, 1995)

BAP concentrates on the first and second criterions 

of SFM. WNMF is working on integrating several other 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.
450 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

complementary approaches with BAP to address the 

remaining criteria.

The complex, multi-faceted nature of biodiversity 

brings about the need to better address our limited 

knowledge of resource processes and their associated 

bio-indicators. BAP must be flexible and adaptive in 

order to integrate what we do know about ecological 

processes with what we need to find out.

MWFP of Alberta, first approached a team of scientists 

to create a system that anticipates the complexities of 

forest systems at a landscape scale. BAP-Alberta was 

a multi-million dollar project with 29 specific habitat 

suitability models. According to Starfield and Bleloch 

(1986), models are tools which “help us to (1) define our 

problems, (2) organize our thoughts, (3) understand our 

data, (4) communicate and test that understanding, and 

(5) make predictions.” Therefore, models are learning 

tools that can help determine the impacts of any external perturbation on the entire system (Higgelke 1994). 

WNMF partners liked the way MWFP approached the 

complexities of biodiversity assessment and brought 

that process to western Newfoundland but WNMF had 

a different perspective on the implementation of this 

project. The WNMF partnership includes a multitude 

of various agencies and organizations, existing resource 

databases, and facilities to broaden the ownership of such 

an initiative. In the long term, BAP will assist WNMF 

in integrating information on forest parameters under 

the ecological CIs, but with limited resources, WNMF 

project managers decided to start small with the implementation of BAP. WNMF partners applied adaptive 

ecosystem management principles in order to progress 

in the development of BAP.

“The adaptive process maximizes the manager’s 

learning about the system, and is consequently a safe 

approach to initiating management in complex systems” 

(Baskerville 1985). In designing forest management 

goals and associated actions, the measurement of progress is carried out in a manner that allows the manager 

to learn about the complex system from his/her management of it. The BAP allows one to forecast management 

actions in a well-defined feedback loop, as illustrated in 

figure 1, and track the resulting effects for a variety of 

management actions. BAP users are forced to recognize 

errors in their proposed assumptions, thus allowing for 

continuous learning from system performance.

Ecologists, biologists, foresters, research scientist 

from numerous disciplines, and resource managers all 

have a role to play in integrating their knowledge and 

developing assumptions on ecosystem structure and function when knowledge gaps are confronted. The outputs of 

their efforts will be integrated into a common framework 

to assess impacts of forest management activities.

Partnerships

The WNMF partnership is comprised of federal, 

provincial, and municipal government agencies, industry organizations, economic development associations, 

environmental organizations, academic institutions, and 

a commercial trapping group. The partnership wanted 

the BAP to be a tool utilized by all sectors of resource 

management, not just industry. The partnership was the 

catalyst for transferring BAP to WNMF and put together 

a team of resource planners, managers, ecologists, biologists, and computer specialists from a multitude of 

different organizations. They formed the Biodiversity 

Assessment Project Working Group (BAPWG), which 

is directed by the following partners:

Industry

Corner Brook Pulp and Paper Limited - Chair of 

BAPWG

Abitibi Consolidated Company of Canada

Federal Government

Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service

Parks Canada, Gros Morne National Park

Provincial Government

College of the North Atlantic, Geospatial Research 

Facility (GRF)

Department of Environment and Conservation, Inland 

Fish and Wildlife Division (IFWD)

Department of Environment and Conservation, Water 

Resources Division

Department of Natural Resources, Forestry Services 

Branch (FRB)

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Figure 1. Adaptive Management Loop (Doyon 1999).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 451

Community

Western Newfoundland Model Forest

Working on behalf of the BAPWG is a technical subcommittee guided by the original researchers involved 

with MWFP. It is the objective of all partners to cooperatively transfer BAP-Alberta models to the WNMF. 

WNMF is developing and testing BAP tools in order to 

accurately predict our future forest conditions under both 

natural and human influences.

Public Participation

Accountability is the cornerstone of the WNMF 

partnership and the BAP. Public participation and input 

into forest management has two direct avenues. Public 

associations and individuals have direct access to WNMF 

resources and will be provided access to working groups 

unless they will not agree to the ground rules of consensus 

decision-making. BAPWG has an open chair policy for 

organizations wanting to participate in the development 

process of a specific initiative.

The second avenue addresses the implementation 

stage of the BAP. The Forestry Services Branch of 

the Provincial government’s Department of Natural 

Resources manages the forests of this province. It is 

responsible for ensuring that forest management districts 

prepare management plans in consultation with public 

and community stakeholders. Local planning teams prepare strategic documents and five-year operating plans 

that incorporate both timber and non-timber forest values. 

One of the major areas of concern for these planning 

teams is the ability to forecast the impacts of their future 

management directives. Are they truly practicing SFM 

in their districts? What are the ramifications of different 

management scenarios on biodiversity? BAP will be their 

future tool to ensure some level of confidence in their 

decision-making abilities.

Capacity Building

The future application of BAP is dependent on the 

relationship established between the inventory agencies, 

research community, forest resource managers, and the 

planning teams. The desired outcome of forest management decisions has to be a result of trade-offs between 

user groups and the natural variability of biophysical 

indicators. BAP, when used in a negotiating process, will 

provide a number of scenarios to participants, thus building their capacity to assess the biodiversity outcomes of 

these virtual scenarios.

•

BAP Process Overview

BAPWG is presently running analyses on four different scenarios using the output of the wood supply 

projection models - Woodstock and Stanley (Remsoft) of 

the Forestry Services Branch. The four scenarios are:

Business as usual – if management was to stay as 

presently practiced with the current annual allowable 

cut.

Business as usual: Fragmented – if the average five 

year harvest block was to stay at 50 ha in size with a 

variability between 10 and 100 ha. A green-up delay 

of 5 years would be imposed for harvesting adjacent 

blocks.

Business as usual: Aggregated - if the average five 

year harvest block was to stay at 300 ha in size with 

a variability between 100 and 800 ha. There would be 

no green-up delay for harvesting adjacent blocks.

Marten Friendly – This scenario respects the landscape thresholds set by the Recovery Team for 

Newfoundland marten. There will be no mean block 

size but a minimum of 10 ha and no maximum limit. 

Tree height would have to be maintained at greater 

than 6.5m with no green-up delay.

Also being run concurrently is a landscape simulator that incorporates the natural disturbance regime of 

the WNMF study area, Forest Management District 15. 

Through a series of applied research projects on insect 

disturbed forest areas, Dr. Yves Jardon of the Institut 

Québécois d’Aménagement de la Forêt Feuillue (IQAFF) 

produced historical outbreak data that he used with 

LANDIS. LANDIS is a commercial landscape simulator 

model capable of producing a future forest scenario void 

of anthropogenic disturbances and based on projecting 

only natural forest succession processes. This natural 

disturbance regime scenario, when analyzed by the 

BAP tools, gauges the natural range of variability of the 

bio-physical indicators, setting minimum and maximum 

thresholds.

BAP has three levels at which these scenarios will 

be assessed:

ecosystem

landscape

species specific

Coarse-Filter Biodiversity Analyses

At a coarse level of bio-indicators, ecosystem diversity 

and landscape configuration are targeted (Doyon and 

MacLeod 2000). The following set of bio-indicators is 

thought to broadly consider the basic habitat requirements 

of forest-dwelling, vertebrate species (Rudy 2000).

1.

2.

3.

4.

1.

2.

3.
452 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Ecosystem diversity

Bio-indicators used in the analysis of ecosystem 

diversity are:

Area-weighted Stand Age

Tree Species Distribution

Species distribution by broad habitat type

Species presence

Species dominance

Habitat Diversity

These three indicators enable BAP to track the changes 

in forest composition due to management practices being projected.

Landscape configuration

Bio-indicators used in the analysis of landscape configuration are chosen for their sensitivity for gauging the 

impact on connectivity. These bioindicators are:

Average patch size and shape

Average edge contrast/Edge length

Patch core area

Adjacency

Nearest neighbour

Fine-Filter Biodiversity Analyses

At a fine-filter level of assessment, habitat supply 

models were developed for specific wildlife species. 

As of August 2004, the BAPWG has models for 

Newfoundland pine marten (Martes americana atrata), 

woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus), and boreal owl 

(Aegolius funereus). All models follow the same format 

and utilize harvest projection inventory tables produced 

by each scenario.

Species specific

In a forest management context, some wildlife species, because of their individual characteristics, need 

to be analyzed separately (Doyon 1999) and cannot be 

generalized into core wildlife groups. A species status 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

as an indicator or keystone species may determine their 

priority for modeling in BAP.

The BAP uses specific species to analyze the forest in terms of future habitat potential for that wildlife 

species. BAPWG has chosen an initial suite of species 

based primarily on data availability but also because of 

their diverse habitat requirements. In 2004 to 2005, the 

Inland Fish and Wildlife Division of the Provincial government’s Department of Environment and Conservation, 

as the biological experts on the BAPWG, will choose a 

suite of future species by evaluating several forest species 

according to the criteria listed in table 1.

BAP Flow

The following process diagram (fig. 2) illustrates how 

BAP fits into interdisciplinary research and decision 

making in Newfoundland and Labrador. The BAPWG 

is responsible for the transfer and development of BAP 

tools. Once the prototype has been developed and accepted, the partners of the BAPWG will be responsible 

for further refinements and implementation. As figure 2 

illustrates, BAP is dependent on many sources of input. 

Once the forest inventory specialists have provided the 

basis for the projections in the province’s wood supply 

projection models, Woodstock and Stanley, and researchers have provided further information on other ecosystem 

components, BAP can generate a stand attributes table 

for assessment. The assessment is filtered through the 

coarse stream for ecosystem and landscape analyses 

once the habitat reclassification is done. Concurrently, 

the bio-indicators will be filtered through the fine stream 

where the habitat requirements to select which species 

will be assessed.

Decision Making

BAP is designed as a decision support system for both 

the public consultation process and the provincial wood 

Table 1. Criteria for Selecting BAP Species (Doyon 1999).

Criterion Description

Sensitivity to Disturbance Expected to be sensitive to intensive forestry practices

Species status Have been given rare, vulnerable, threatened, or endangered status

Monitoring Easily monitored (relatively common with entire home range contained within the FMA area)

Habitat specificity Have specific requirements for particular habitat types

Special habitat elements Use special habitat elements such as snags, downed woody debris, and arboreal lichens

Functionally essential species Have substantial influence on the ecosystem (top predators or large browsers)

Landscape configuration Expected to be sensitive to landscape composition and structure (area- or edge-sensitive 

species)

Socio-economic value Hunted, trapped, viewed, or photographed by local people

Available information Have been studied extensively
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 453

supply analysis. Once integrated into the provincial forest management planning process, each district planning 

team will be responsible for setting the constraints for different management scenarios. After the bio-indicators for 

each management strategy are analyzed, compared, and 

evaluated, the planners and planning teams will receive 

an opportunity to decide if the outcome of the projection 

compares with their goals for SFM. If they do not, re-testing of management scenarios occurs until an acceptable 

management strategy is achieved (Newfoundland Forest 

Service 2003).

Conclusion

The Western Newfoundland Model Forest is committed to seeing the BAP process through to its adoption as 

a formal mechanism for protecting the biodiversity of 

Newfoundland and Labrador forests. As a partnership, 

we do have concerns over the balance of ecological 

integrity, economic sustainability, and social rights and 

freedoms when developing decision support systems for 

forest management. Process transparency, access to information, and providing the opportunity for community 

participation will ensure the success of the Biodiversity 

Assessment Project and its incorporation into the public 

consultation process for decisions on forest management 

planning in Newfoundland and Labrador.

References

Baskerville, G. 1985. Adaptive Management Wood Availability 

and Habitat Availability. Forestry Chronicle. 61(2): 171-

175.

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 1995. Defining 

Sustainable Forest Management: A Canadian Approach to 

Criteria and Indicators, ISBN 1-896408-04-4, Ottawa, ON: 

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 22p.

Doyon, F. 1999. Habitat Supply Modeling: Evaluating 

Biodiversity Responses to Forest Management, In: 

Figure 2. BAP Process.
454 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Presentation to the Western Newfoundland Model Forest: 

proceedings, 2000 February 7, , 36 slides.

Doyon, F.; MacLeod, H. L. 2000. Ecosystem Diversity and 

Landscape Configuration Models. BAP Report #7. St. 

Andre-Avellin, QC : Institut Québécois d’Aménagement 

de la Forêt Feuillue (IQAFF). 7 p.

Duinker, P. N.; Doyon, F.; Morash, R.; Van Damme, L.; 

MacLeod, H. L.; Rudy, A. 2000. Background and Structure. 

Biodiversity Assessment Project for Millar Western Forest 

Products Ltd. BAP Report #1. Thunder Bay, ON: Chair 

in Forest Management and Policy, Faculty of Forestry, 

Lakehead University. 17p.

Griffin. G. G. 1979. The development and present status of 

forest policy in Newfoundland. Fredericton, NB: Master’s 

Thesis, University of New Brunswick. 93 p.

Nazir, M.; Moores, L. J. 2001. Forest Policy in Newfoundland 

and Labrador. The Forestry Chronicle. 77(1): 61-63.

Newfoundland Forest Service, Department of Forest Resources 

and Agrifoods, Government of Newfoundland and Labrador. 

2003. Newfoundland and Labrador Provincial Sustainable 

Forest Management Strategy 2003, 77 p.

Mitchell, Bruce 1986. The Evolution of Integrated Resource 

Management. In: Lang, R., ed. Integrated Approaches to 

Resource Planning and Management, ISBN 0-919813-38-

0. Calgary, AB: Banff Centre for Continuing Education. 

302 p.

Rudy, A. May 2000. BAP Report #8: BAP Program 

Documentation. Thunder Bay, ON: KBM Forestry 

Consultants Inc. 38p.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 455

Introduction

Ontario Canada’s Ministry of the Environment (MOE) 

and Environment Canada’s Ecological Monitoring and 

Assessment Network Coordinating Office (EMAN CO) 

co-founded the Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network 

(OBBN). Once fully implemented, the OBBN will allow 

partners to evaluate aquatic ecosystem condition using 

the reference-condition approach and shallow-water 

benthos as indicators of environmental quality.

The purpose of this paper is to explain our vision of 

the Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network within the 

context of a complex mosaic of Canadian initiatives 

that together result in substantial capacity for adaptive 

environmental management and informed local decision-making. The common thread through this mosaic 

is a commitment to the fundamentals (Jones and others 

2002): building partnerships, and providing information 

on ecosystem condition and management performance 

to local decision makers. We begin by discussing the 

importance of biomonitoring, explaining why benthos 

are commonly used as indicators of aquatic ecosystem 

condition, and highlighting the complementarity of biological and chemical assessments. We then describe the 

The Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network

Chris Jones, Benthic Biomonitoring Scientist, Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset 

Environmental Science Centre, Dorset, Ontario, Canada, P0A 1E0

Brian Craig, Network Science Advisor, Environment Canada, Ecological Monitoring and 

Assessment Network Coordinating Office, Burlington, Ontario, Canada, L7R 4A6

Nicole Dmytrow, intern, Ontario Ministry of Environment, Dorset Environmental Science 

Centre, Dorset, Ontario, Canada, P0A 1E0

Abstract—Canada’s Ontario Ministry of the Environment and Environment Canada 

(Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network) are developing an aquatic macroinvertebrate biomonitoring network for Ontario’s lakes, streams, and wetlands. We are 

building the program, called the Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network (OBBN), on 

the principles of partnership, free data sharing, and standardization. This paper discusses 

the importance of biomonitoring, describes why benthos are commonly used as indicators of aquatic ecosystem condition, explains the complementarity of biological and 

chemical assessments, details OBBN components, and lists some research needs. The 

paper is framed by several themes: inclusiveness, partnerships, capacity building, and 

creating effective links between monitoring and decision-making.

Traditionally there has been an individualistic approach to Biomonitoring in Ontario, 

with little communication between practitioners. This lack of coordination has limited 

the application of biomonitoring in the past, chiefly because no mechanism for sharing 

and comparing data existed, and because there was no consistent training. Based on 

approaches used in the U.K., Australia, and the U.S.A., the OBBN will overcome these 

difficulties by specifying standard methods (with options for tailoring programs to match 

expertise and financial resources), enabling data sharing between partners, automating 

assessments, and providing training.

Biological criteria for evaluating aquatic ecosystem condition are generally not available. The OBBN uses a reference-condition approach (RCA) to define biocriteria: 

samples from minimally impacted (reference) sites define an expectation (for example, 

the normal range) for biological condition at a test site. Assessments evaluate whether 

a test site’s biological condition is within the normal range. The OBBN’s automated 

analytical tools and a protocol that balances flexibility with standardization will allow 

the citizen scientist and university academic to do bioassessments of similar calibre. 

New partnerships, and the ability to generate local information on aquatic ecosystem 

condition, will build capacity for adaptive water management and enhance the link 

between science and decision making.
456 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

components of the OBBN and justify each in relation 

to their role in adaptive, community-based ecosystem 

management. The paper concludes with a list of research 

needs related to implementation.

Importance of Aquatic Biomonitoring

Monitoring supports adaptive water management; it 

provides feedback on the status of aquatic resources and 

the performance of policies, programs, and legislation 

(Jones and others 2002). Biomonitoring—the process 

of sampling, evaluating, and reporting on ecosystem 

condition using biological indicators—is an important 

part of aquatic ecosystem management. This is because 

management end-points are often biological (for example, protection of aquatic biota and their habitats), and 

because laws and policies typically stress the protection 

of aquatic biota.

Ontario’s legislative basis for biomonitoring includes the Ontario Water Resources Act (R.S.O. 1990, 

CHAPTER O.40), which has a clearly biological 

definition of impairment. It states that “the quality of 

water shall be deemed ... impaired if ... the material 

discharged ... causes or may cause injury to any person, 

animal, bird or other living thing ....” Similarly, Ontario’s 

Environmental Protection Act (R.S.O. 1990, CHAPTER 

E.19) has clearly biological elements of its definition of 

adverse impact, including: (a) impairment of the quality of the natural environment for any use that can be 

made of it, (b) injury or damage to property or to plant 

or animal life, (d) an adverse effect on the health of any 

person;, and (f) rendering any property or plant or animal 

life unfit for human use. Canada’s federal Fisheries Act 

(R.S. 1985, c. F-14) provides further impetus for biomonitoring by stating that no person shall carry on any 

work or undertaking that results in the harmful alteration, 

disruption, or destruction of fish habitat (for example, 

spawning grounds; nursery, rearing, and migration areas; 

and food supply).

Reflecting our legislation, Ontario’s policies also suggest a need for biomonitoring. The document, “Water 

Management: Policies Guidelines Provincial Water 

Quality Objectives of the Ministry of Environment and 

Energy [sic]” (Ontario Ministry of Environment and 

Energy 1994) states, “With respect to surface water 

quality, the goal is to ensure that ... water quality is satisfactory for aquatic life...” Similarly, Ontario’s Provincial 

Policy Statement (PPS) (R.S.O. 1990, CHAPTER P.13), 

an extension of the Planning Act, states, “the quality 

and quantity of ground water and surface water and the 

function of sensitive ground water recharge/discharge 

areas, aquifers, and headwaters will be protected, or enhanced.” The PPS further states that development and site 

alteration is only permitted in significant habitats if no 

negative impacts on the natural features or the ecological 

functions will result.

Although the above are Ontario examples, similar 

legislation- and policy-based justifications for biomonitoring can be made in many countries. An international 

example includes the EU Water Framework Directive, 

which requires both good ecological status (based on 

the reference condition approach, see below) and good 

chemical status of surface water (EU Commission 2003). 

In the U.S., the concept of biological integrity has been 

included in water legislation (for example, the Water 

Pollution Control Act) since 1972 and “is now an integral component of water resource programs at state and 

federal levels” (U.S. EPA 2002).

Benthos as Indicators

Benthos are large, bottom dwelling insects, crustaceans, worms, mollusks and related aquatic animals. 

They are good indicators of aquatic ecosystem health because they are sedentary, their life cycles range in length 

from months to years (compares well with typical 1-3 

year business planning and budgeting horizons typically 

applied in environmental management), they are easy 

to collect and identify, they are responsive to changes 

in water and sediment quality, they are ubiquitous, and 

they are not typically seen as an economic or recreational 

resource themselves (Mackie 2001). Benthos have been 

used extensively to assess water quality in streams and 

lakes (Rosenberg and Resh 1993 and 1996).

Complementarity of Biological 

and Physical-Chemical 

Monitoring

Physical-chemical (stressor-based) and biological (effect-based) monitoring approaches are complementary 

(table 1). An example of a stressor-based index is a water 

chemistry analyte (in other words, a surrogate for the 

toxicity of water to fish). An example of an effect-based 

index is age class abundance of smallmouth bass (in other 

words, a surrogate for reproductive success and mortality 

of fish exposed to a chemical stressor).

A case study for the Pretty River, Collingwood, 

Ontario shows the complementarity of these two types 

of indicators. Table 2 shows benthos data between 1996 

and 2001 for Pretty River while figures 1 and 2 show 

water quality for the same stream and time period. 

The majority of the distribution of data for phosphorus 

and zinc (stressor-based indicators) were well below 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 457

Provincial Water Quality Objectives (MOEE 1994), 

suggesting good water quality conditions; however, in 

comparison to local minimally impacted stream communities, the very low overall abundance and the relative 

scarcity of sensitive benthos (effect-based indicator) 

suggested a strong effect of habitat degradation (which 

was consistent with the site’s history as a man-made 

bedrock floodway channel). In this case, seemingly 

contradictory water chemistry and biological monitoring results can be combined to make a more complete 

assessment of aquatic ecosystem condition than either 

approach could on its own, in other words, to conclude 

that water quality is good but that biota are suppressed 

by habitat degradation.

Table 2. Species abundances for each listed benthos taxon collected during a 5 minute kick and 

sweep sample for the Pretty River, Collingwood, Ontario.

Qualitative Sample Kick 1 (~5 min) Number Kick 2 (~5 min) Number

Molophilus Hydropsyche 37 Hydropsyche 4

Caenis Stenelmis 3 Optioservus 1

Stenonema femoratum Optioservus 2 Stenonema (imm.) 1

Stenonema (imm.) Antocha 12 Fossaria 1

Caecidotea Hemerodromia 1 Paracapnia 4

Hydropsych Stenonema (imm.) 13

Stenelmis (l) Orthocladiinae 1

Hesperocorixa Tanypodinae 1

Agnetina Chironomini 1

Taenioteryx Tanytarsini 6

Paracapnia Ephemerella 1

Table 1. Complementarity of stressor- and effect-based aquatic monitoring (adapted from Roux and others 1999).

Stressor-based Approach Effect-based Approach

Monitoring focus Stressors causing environmental change, i.e., Effects (responses) of natural and/or 

chemical and physical inputs anthropogenic disturbances, e.g., changes in 

the structure and function of biological 

communities

Management focus Water quality regulation: controlling stressors Aquatic ecosystem protection: managing 

through regulations ecological integrity

Primary indicators Chemical and physical habitat variables, e.g., Structural and functional biological attributes 

pH, dissolved oxygen, copper concentration (e.g., relative taxa abundances, frequency of 

deformities)

Assessment end points Degree of compliance with a set criterion or Degree of deviation from a benchmark or 

discharge standard desired biological condition

Figure 1. Phosphorus data from Pretty River, Collingwood, 

ON. The central 50 percent of the data is shown as the box, 

with vertical bars extending to the maximum and minimum 

observed values. Unpublished data.

Figure 2. Zinc data from Pretty River, Collingwood, ON. The 

central 50 percent of the data is shown as the box, with 

vertical bars extending to the maximum and minimum 

observed values. Unpublished data.
458 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Ontario Benthos 

Biomonitoring Network Vision

Herein we describe OBBN components and reinforce 

the connection of each component to adaptive community-based ecosystem management.

Background

Even though the need for benthos biomonitoring is well 

known, its application has not been widespread in Ontario 

for several reasons: although regulatory guidelines for 

water chemistry are available, no analogous biocriteria 

exist for biomonitoring; bioassessment is complex due 

to a number of confounding factors (for example, biota 

respond to factors other than water quality); no standard 

sampling protocol exists; benthos identification requires 

special expertise; experts disagree on interpretation; and 

traditional methods are costly.

A historical patchwork approach to biomonitoring in 

Ontario created three main barriers to wider application: 

no standard protocol, no mechanism for sharing data, 

and no consistent training. The OBBN will remove these 

barriers by specifying standard methods, enabling data 

sharing between partners, automating analysis using a 

reference-condition approach, and providing training. 

With the direction of a multi-partner Technical Advisory 

Committee, we are developing the network according 

to the principles of partnership, free data sharing, and 

standardization. EMAN sees the OBBN as a pilot project 

for a Canada-wide aquatic biomonitoring program that 

is accessible to volunteer “citizen scientists” and professional research scientists alike.

The Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network has 

four objectives:

To enable the assessment of lakes, streams, and wetlands using benthic macro-invertebrates as indicators 

of environmental quality.

To provide a biological performance measure related 

to management of aquatic ecosystems.

To provide a biological complement to Ontario’s 

provincial surface water chemistry monitoring program.

To facilitate a reference condition approach to bioassessment in which minimally impacted sites are used 

to derive a community expectation for a test site.

We expect to fully implement the OBBN by 2005. 

Coordinating partners, MOE and EMAN CO, are providing scientific guidance and limited sampling equipment. 

Partners (federal, provincial, and local governments; 

conservation authorities [Ontario’s watershed-based 

quasi-governmental water management agencies]; universities; non-governmental groups; and volunteers) are 

1.

2.

3.

4.

sampling lakes, streams, and wetlands, using and reporting information according to their own mandates, and 

participating in collaborative research to refine protocols 

and analytical methods.

Reference Condition Approach

We recommend a reference condition approach (RCA) 

to bioassessment (fig. 3), in which minimally impacted 

reference sites are used to define “normal” and set an expectation for community composition at test sites where 

water and habitat quality are in question (Wright and 

others 2000, Bailey and others 2004). Using the RCA, 

we consider test sites unusual if their communities fall 

outside of the normal range. Unusual sites warrant further 

study to determine if human activities are responsible for 

the deviant community composition.

The first step in the RCA is to sample reference sites. 

Because no objective, quantitative criteria for “minimally 

impacted” exist, we ask partners to sample sites that are 

not obviously exposed to any human impacts (such as 

point-source contamination, regulation of water level, 

water impoundment, deforestation, habitat alteration, 

development, agriculture, or acidification), and that 

represent best local conditions. Test site sampling will 

commence once a reasonable amount of reference site 

data is available.

OBBN Protocol

Providing standard operating procedures is vital to 

wide implementation of aquatic benthos biomonitoring 

in Ontario. Some degree of standardization is important 

in any monitoring program to ensure comparability of 

results over time and across jurisdictions, and this is 

particularly true when using a reference condition approach; however the OBBN protocol (Jones and others 

2004) also recognizes that some degree of flexibility is 

equally vital in a program that is founded on partnerships. OBBN partners differ with respect to their financial 

resources and expertise, and standard methods must 

have options that can accommodate these differences. 

Table 3 summarizes OBBN protocol recommendations. 

Approximately 400 sites have been sampled to-date in 

Ontario using these protocols.

OBBN Database and Automated 

Analytical Tools

The OBBN includes an internet-accessible database 

for storing and sharing reference site and test site data. 

The database is being jointly developed by EMAN CO 

and the National Water Research Institute of Environment 

Canada and will be integrated with a proposed national 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 459

biomonitoring program. Several automated analytical 

database modules are currently under development: a test 

site and reference site selection utility, a mapping utility, 

a summary metrics calculator, and a statistical module for 

hypothesis testing. These modules are critical to the success of the program because they mean that sophisticated 

bioassessments can be done equally by volunteer citizen 

scientists and professional research scientists alike; 

they will allow partners to generate readable, custom, 

nearly-instantaneous assessment reports that represent 

a considerable increase in available information for 

local community-based decision making in 

Ontario. These assessment tools are a substantial innovation in light of many other programs 

in which community volunteers merely collect, 

submit data to a central warehouse, and receive 

little or no feedback on what the data mean.

Generating a custom report with the automated analytical tools requires an OBBN 

partner to proceed through six steps:

Log-in to the database with a client password 

(passwords are coded to training certification 

level and effectively limit data entry fields and 

forms a user has access to based on training 

received).

Enter site location, benthos, and habitat data 

for test site (site photo optional).

Execute the reference site selection tool (runs a 

predictive model that predicts a test site’s reference site group membership based on site- and 

catchment-scale physiographic information, 

and queries the database for records associated with 

reference sites in the predicted group).

Execute the Metrics Calculator (calculates a user-defined set of benthos community summary metrics for 

both the test site and reference sites).

Execute the hypothesis testing tool (automates the 

statistical calculations associated with a multivariate 

t-test, which determines if the test site is within or outside the normal range considering all summary metrics 

[and redundancies among metrics] simultaneously).

Execute the reporting tool (which compiles products 

from each of the above modules into a simple output).

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

Table 3. Summary of OBBN protocol recommendations.

Biomonitoring Component Recommendation

Benthos Collection Method Traveling kick and sweep (other optional methods are available for special 

studies or atypical habitats)

Mesh Size 500 μm

Time of Year Any season; assessment comparisons are made using data from the same 

season

Picking In lab (preferred) or in field (optional); preserved (preferred) or live (optional), 

microscope (preferred) or visually unaided (optional); random sub-sampling to 

provide a fixed count per sample

Taxonomic Level Mix of 27 Phyla, Classes, Orders and Families (minimum detail); more detailed 

identifications are optional and are recommended for reference sites

Analysis Reference condition approach: community composition summarized using a 

variety of user-defined indices and hypothesis testing based on generalized 

distance (Bowman and Somers 2004)

Figure 3. Steps in the reference condition approach to 

bioassessment.
460 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Training

Training is a critical component of the OBBN for two 

main reasons. First, it ensures that protocols are followed 

correctly so that partners have confidence in the quality 

of reference and test site data shared through the network. 

Second, it fosters interest in monitoring and better use 

of monitoring information in the environmental decision 

making process.

The large number of OBBN participants and relatively few full-time staff administering the network (one 

government scientist and one recent graduate intern) 

necessitated a train-the-trainer approach, which is still 

under development. To-date, training has been offered 

at a series of multi-day courses that cover all aspects of 

the program, with emphasis on the reference condition 

approach, sample collection and processing procedures, 

and benthos identification. So that deficiencies in OBBN 

methods can be corrected, the training workshops will 

be augmented with short protocol-audit workshops, in 

which exercises will determine if participants are applying techniques as written and if difficulties are arising.

To-date, several hundred partners have attended training courses and their feedback will enable refinements 

to the training program. A future training focus will be 

benthos identification. Rather than developing a unique 

taxonomic certification for Ontario, we plan to implement 

the North American Benthological Society taxonomic 

certification program, which is still under development 

(North American Benthological Society 2003).

Collaborative Research

The OBBN includes a collaborative research component that is aligned with program implementation, 

principally the refinement of methods. Collaborative 

research opportunities ensure efficiency, assist with the 

delivery of the resulting information, and allow partners to get more involved in monitoring science than 

they would otherwise be able to. Studies investigating 

high priority questions related to collection methods 

and timing of benthos sampling are underway. These 

studies will determine where optional methods can be 

applied, if sufficient numbers of animals are collected, 

and whether different collection methods yield similar 

relative abundance estimates for a site. A temporal stream 

study is investigating seasonal patterns of benthos community composition and may allow us to refine sampling 

windows specified in our protocol manual.

We list several OBBN research questions below. 

Studies to answer each question will be undertaken in 

priority sequence with results being reported using media appropriate to our audience, typically peer reviewed 

literature and government technical bulletins.

Is the reference site mean plus/minus 2 standard deviations a reasonable definition of the normal range? 

Does this definition reflect what we consider to be 

an ecologically significant effect, in other words, the 

minimum effect size we wish to detect?

How many groups of reference sites are there? How 

many sites are required to define a group? How 

minimally impacted must a site be to be considered a 

reference site? Does this threshold change depending 

on location in the province?

How accurately can we predict a test site’s reference 

group membership? What are the best attributes on 

which to build our predictive model?

What is the ideal ratio of reference sites to number of 

metrics used in the analysis?

Does the detail of benthos identification (for example. 

Order-level vs. Genus-level) affect the sensitivity of 

a bioassessment and the amount of diagnostic information provided? Does the selection of a sampling 

method affect sensitivity or diagnostic resolution? 

Can we use “response signatures” to identify certain 

types of impairment? Which indices contribute the 

most information to bioassessments in different parts 

of Ontario?

How many samples are enough for whole lake, whole 

river, or whole wetland assessments?

Summary

Monitoring is important to adaptive environmental 

management because it provides feedback to managers 

on the status of resources and the performance of management activities. Biomonitoring is required to support 

legislative and policy direction in many jurisdictions, and 

provides effect-based results that are relevant in management schemes that aim to protect biota. Benthos, bottom 

dwelling invertebrates that live in most aquatic systems, 

have many traits that make them excellent indicators of 

aquatic ecosystem condition.

The Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network will 

enable partners ranging from volunteers to research 

scientists to reliably conduct benthos bioassessments on 

lakes, streams, and wetlands. The result will be a marked 

increase in the amount of locally available information on aquatic ecosystem condition for consideration 

in environmental management decisions. The OBBN 

has five components that have been built specifically to 

promote comprehensive bioassessment coverage of the 

province: a database that enables reference and test site 

data sharing, a standard protocol (which contains options 

so procedures can be tailored to partners’ expertise and 

•

•

•

•

•

•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 461

financial resources), training, automated analytical tools, 

and a research program. The network will be fully implemented by 2005 on the principles of partnership, free data 

sharing, and standardization and is part of a mosaic of 

Canadian programs that are delivering effective information to local environmental decision makers.

References

Bailey, R. C.; R. H. Norris; T. B. Reynoldson. 2004. 

Bioassessment of freshwater ecosystems using the reference condition approach. Norwell, MA: Kluwer Academic 

Publishers. 167 pp.

Bowman, M. F.; K. M. Somers; R. A. Reid. 2003. A Simple 

Method To Evaluate Whether A Biological Community Has 

Been Influenced By Anthropogenic Activity. In: Hedley, K.; 

S. Roe; A.J. Niimi, eds. Proceedings for the 30th Annual 

Aquatic Toxicity Workshop: September 28 to October 1, 

2003, Ottawa, ON: 62-72.

EU Commission. 2003. EUROPA European Commission: 

Introduction to the new EU Water Framework Directive. 

http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/water/water-framework/overview.html.

Jones, C.; R. M. Palmer; S. Motkaluk; M. Walters. Watershed 

Health Monitoring: Emerging Technologies. Boca Raton: 

Lewis Publishers. 248 p.

Jones, C.; K.M. Somers; B. Craig; T. B. Reynoldson. 2004. 

Ontario Benthos Biomonitoring Network protocol manual, 

version 1.0. Ontario Ministry of Environment. (may be 

downloaded at http://obbn.eman-rese.ca/obbn/).

Ontario Ministry of Environment and Energy. 1994. Water 

Management: Policies Guidelines Provincial Water Quality 

Objectives of the Ministry of Environment and Energy. 

Toronto, ON: Queen’s Printer for Ontario. 67 p.

Mackie, G. L. 2001. Applied Aquatic Ecosystem Concepts. 

Dubuque: Kendall-Hunt Publishing. 744 p.

North American Benthological Society. 2003. A Proposal for a 

Taxonomic Certification Program. http://www.benthos.org/

Business/Archives/NABSTaxCertPropsl10-10-03.pdf.

Rosenberg, D. M.; V. H. Resh, eds. 1993. Introduction to 

Freshwater Biomonitoring and Benthic Macroinvertebrates. 

New York, NY: Chapman and Hall. 488 p.

Rosenberg, D. M.; V. H. Resh. 1996. Use of aquatic insects in 

biomonitoring. In Merritt, R.W.; K.W. Cummins., eds. An 

introduction to the aquatic insects of North America (Third 

Edition). Dubuque: Kendall-Hunt Publishing: 87-97.

Roux, D. J.; P. L. Kempster; C. J. Kleynhans; H. R. Van Vliet; 

H. H. Du Preez. 1999. Integrating stressor and response 

monitoring into a resource-based water-quality assessment 

framework. Environmental Management. 23:15-30.

U.S. EPA. 2002. Biological Indicators of Watershed Health. 

http://www.epa.gov/bioindicators/html/biointeg.html.

Wright, J. F.; D. W. Sutcliffe; M.T. Furse, eds. 2000. Assessing 

the biological quality of fresh waters: RIVPACS and other 

techniques. Ambleside: Freshwater Biological Association. 

400 p.
462 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Since 2002, the Towns of Black Diamond, Turner 

Valley and Okotoks have been working together to 

engage residents of the Sheep River Valley in personal 

action toward the preservation and protection of their 

watershed. Through identification of common issues, 

the municipalities have developed a Tri Community 

Watershed Initiative to help promote more sustainable use of local water resources. Initiative elements 

include implementation of water conservation strategies, introduction of water practice policies, community 

engagement opportunities, working with partners and 

developing public information and education materials. 

Establishing normative behaviours that focus on voluntary adoption of best management practices through 

development of cooperative models and more informed 

decision-making, the initiative has proven to be effective 

in changing municipal water policies and influencing 

water use behaviour in the communities.

The Tri Community Watershed Initiative is helping the 

towns to engage the residents of the Sheep River Valley 

in personal action toward sustainability and greater 

ecological health. An important initiative component is 

the implementation of community-based social marketing (CBSM) campaigns, which have proven to be an 

effective method in influencing residential behaviour in 

the communities. Since 1999, the Town of Okotoks has 

successfully used CBSM as part of its water conservation 

initiative, resulting in a 20 percent reduction in residential water use during the summer months. The Towns 

of Black Diamond and Turner Valley recently adopted 

a CBSM approach to address water conservation issues 

and experienced overwhelming support from residents 

for the program.

Tri Community Watershed Initiative: Towns of Black 

Diamond, Turner Valley and Okotoks, Alberta, Canada 

Promoting Sustainable Behaviour in Watersheds and 

Communities

Maureen Lynch is theCoordinator of the Tri Community Watershed Initiative, 

Black Diamond, AB, T0L 0H0

Abstract—For the past two years, three rural municipalities in the foothills of the Canadian 

Rockies have been working together to promote sustainability in their communities. 

The towns share the belief that water is an integral part of the community; they have 

formed a Tri Community Watershed Initiative to help manage their shared resource. 

Activities of the Initiative include changing municipal policies, writing municipal water, 

and river valley management plans, working with partners, hosting community events 

and engaging local media in community success stories. The towns are also assisting 

residents in outdoor water conservation efforts. To date, 100 percent of the households 

– more than 15,000 residents in approximately 6,000 households – have participated 

in community-wide water conservation campaigns that protect the local watershed.

The Initiative has improved local policy and decision-making through a collaborative, 

multi-stakeholder approach that delivers ecological monitoring science in a manner that 

improves knowledge in the decision-making process. Involvement of town councilors in 

this ecological monitoring initiative has allowed local decision makers to gain awareness 

and knowledge that has led to action on community environmental watershed issues 

and increased community capacity.

Decisions made at local and landscape scales have a direct impact on sustainability. 

This Initiative has succeeded in ensuring that choices are informed and reflect the collective values of the community. By identifying values and defining sustainability, the 

communities have been empowered to monitor progress and feed into adaptive decision-making processes. The framework and best practices the towns have developed 

for engaging communities will be discussed as well as lessons learned.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 463

Water as a Bridge Between 

Communities

The Towns of Black Diamond (population 1,900), 

Turner Valley (population 1,500) and Okotoks (population 12,000) face a variety of challenges as a result of 

influences of local growth, urban sprawl, forestry, oil 

and gas exploration, tourism and recreation, intensive 

livestock operations and traditional agricultural practices. Local town councils must respond to increasing 

demands for policy to balance social, economic, and 

environmental issues. Residents share concerns about 

their own awareness and knowledge, which they feel 

contribute to the success of their community. The towns 

are situated within a 20-km radius of one another and are 

located near Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Identified issues 

of common concern are linked to watershed management 

and the municipalities share the belief that water is an 

integral part of the community.

In March 2002, the towns supported a proposal to participate in the Canadian Community Monitoring Network 

(CCMN), a one-year pilot initiative of Environment 

Canada and the Canadian Nature Federation to link 

monitoring to decision-making. The project aimed to 

determine the best approaches for engaging communities 

in monitoring activities that contribute to local sustainability. Under the CCMN project, 12 coordinators in 31 

widely differing communities across Canada were hired 

to test and refine different approaches to implementing 

Community Based Monitoring (CBM). Each coordinator 

used a range of personally tailored, context-specific approaches accompanied by a suite of tools. The four key 

phases of the CCMN model for CBM developed through 

the project include community mapping, participation 

assessment, capacity building, and information gathering 

and delivery (EMAN CO and CNF 2004).

The Towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley and 

Okotoks, as participating communities in the CCMN 

project, learned that progress toward a common vision 

of sustainability can be measured by environmental 

monitoring when it is driven by local information needs 

and community values. In addition, they found that local 

monitoring information can be integrated into adaptive 

decision-making structures where verification, investigation of cause, research into mechanisms or development 

of options can be initiated in response to early indications 

of environmental change.

As three southern east slope communities located 

along the Sheep River in the foothills of the Canadian 

Rocky Mountains, the towns have a history of almost 

100 years of living and working within their watershed. These communities share concerns about use and 

stewardship of their water resource and are acting together to reduce impacts. A common vision of engaging 

resident in the preservation and protection of the Sheep 

River has begun to emerge among local municipal councils. Local action is linked to community engagement and 

public information and education programs are helping 

to build community capacity on watershed issues.

The Sheep River is a natural free-flowing river, which 

has no in-stream or off-site water diversion facilities to 

store and protect municipal water supplies. Communities 

rely on natural flows and the wise and responsible use 

of water resources to provide for their needs. The towns 

believe in the importance of directing efforts towards 

the preservation and protection of their watershed and 

collectively seek to reduce their impacts on the water 

they use and return to the river. “We are all downstream 

water users” appropriately describes the relationship 

among these communities.

Currently the Sheep River is relatively healthy; however, threats from various urban uses have the potential to 

contribute to watershed deterioration. Water conservation 

and wise water use by all Sheep River watershed users is 

a significant issue. A 30 to 50 percent water saving can 

be achieved, for example, in households by using three 

low-flow devices (toilets, showerheads, tap aerators). 

Climatic conditions and lack of scientific data to determine healthy aquatic environments are ongoing water 

management concerns for the Towns of Black Diamond, 

Turner Valley and Okotoks. Members of these communities have expressed a need to “take action” towards urban 

water use and management issues and access additional 

expertise to provide opportunities to engage residents in 

stewardship programs.

Raising Awareness and 

Knowledge Through 

Community Action

Through the Tri Community Watershed Initiative, the 

Towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley and Okotoks 

have built community linkages to support local citizen-led 

watershed efforts. To date, three annual tri-community 

river clean ups, involving more than 350 volunteers and 

9 llamas, have gathered 7 tons of garbage—including 

everything from tractor tiers to kitchen sinks. Decisionmaker involvement includes town councilors, mayors, 

staff, and residents.

Additional community engagement opportunities help 

to further build capacity. More than 100 students from local Foothills Composite and Oilfields High Schools have 

conducted water quality monitoring tests on the Sheep 
464 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

River with RiverWatch, an award-winning not-for-profit 

organization that links water monitoring activities to the 

Alberta Learning Curriculum. Students have participated 

in pre- and post-field work, in-class discussions, and data 

collection to measure physical, chemical, and biological 

river parameters. Town councilors and local media also 

participated, providing links to local decision-making 

and community engagement. In addition, RiverWatch 

Summer Science Water Camp activities have provided 

an opportunity for 25 children to float down the Sheep 

River in inner-tubes and learn about natural history, 

aquatic health and river safety while conducting water 

quality monitoring activities.

The towns also hold focus groups with residents to 

discuss water conservation issues and identify barriers 

and constraints. Meetings with neighbouring communities provide opportunities to discuss water-related issues 

including the hosting of a national panel discussion on 

water conservation with regional partners, Environment 

Canada, Canadian Nature Federations, Canadian 

Community Monitoring Network regional coordinators, 

and mayor, council, staff and residents. In addition, the 

towns have held a Facilitation Skills Workshop to train 

25 residents, staff and decision-makers in local sustainability issue management.

In addition, the towns are assisting residents in outdoor 

water conservation efforts. Using a Community-Based 

Social Marketing strategy, the towns have created a 

two-way dialogue by visiting resident door-to-door, 

discussing water conservation issues and identifying 

barriers and constraints to wise water use. To date, 100 

per cent of residential households (5,400 households, 

15,000 residents) have received incentives such as fact 

sheets, hose washers, tap timers, and wildflower seed 

packages. The towns have reinforced their wise water 

use messages through utility bill inserts, direct mailers, 

highway signage, and newsletter and newspaper articles. 

The communities also share a common Horticultural 

Hotline in which Town of Okotoks’ Open Spaces Staff 

answer more than 1,000 telephone calls per year from 

area residents on water related issues.

The Tri Community Watershed Initiative has been 

recognized with two APEX Awards of Communications 

Excellence and has been named as a Finalist in the 

Alberta Emerald Award Foundation for Environmental 

Excellence.

As a result of their involvement in the Tri Community 

Watershed Initiative, the three town councils have improved water efficiency policies by passing low-flow 

fixture bylaws (for new homes, businesses and renovations), water conservation bylaws, joint resolutions to 

work together, right-to-know pesticide bylaws, and line 

item budget funding for residential water conservation 

programs. Participation of town councilors in grassroots 

ecological monitoring initiatives through such activities as River Clean-Up Day has allowed local decision 

makers to gain awareness and knowledge that has led to 

action on community environmental watershed issues 

and increased community capacity building.

Capacity Building—Remind, 

Reinforce and Reveal to 

Succeed

Through the joint efforts of the Towns of Black 

Diamond, Turner Valley and Okotoks, the Tri Community 

Watershed Initiative has:

Lead to action on local community river valley issues.

Engaged the communities in volunteer and residential 

watershed activities.

Encouraged active community participation in watershed policies.

Encouraged commitment of municipal councils to 

watershed management.

Enabled the communities to develop resources, expertise, and partnerships to raise community awareness, 

knowledge, and personal action.

The Tri Community Watershed Initiative has also 

generated substantial financial contributions to the 

three communities, including funding from EcoAction 

($100,000), Environment Canada/Canadian Nature 

Federation – CCMN Project ($39,000), Community 

Animation Program ($9,000), Community Initiatives 

Program ($7,000), in-kind donations ($10,000) and line 

item budgeting from the Towns of Turner Valley, Black 

Diamond, and Okotoks ($32,000).

Public involvement within the Towns of Black 

Diamond, Turner Valley and Okotoks has been extensive, 

with more than 500 participants (3,000 volunteer hours) 

taking part in watershed activities. Demographics range 

from residents, students, councilors, town staff and environmental partners. Face-to-face meetings, presence, 

and visibility within the communities, and exchanging 

information have all been successful methods of sharing 

with our partners. Approximately 150 meetings have 

been held within the three communities to discuss water related issues, with more than 2,000 participants in 

attendance. Specifically, the Tri Community Watershed 

Initiative has provided the towns with:

Personal contact with 5,400 households and 15,000 

residents to discuss water conservation issues and 

identify barriers and constraints to wise water use, resulting in a 20 per cent reduction in summer residential 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 465

water use in the Town of Okotoks along (the Towns 

of Black Diamond and Turner Valley are currently 

reviewing summer residential water use statistics to 

determine reduction rates).

Community capacity building with local schools, 

resulting in 100 local high school students and 25 

elementary-aged students conducting water-monitoring activities. Six local teachers have been trained in 

RiverWatch monitoring protocols.

Improved aquatic health of the Sheep River through 

river clean up activities, resulting in 350 volunteers 

and 9 llamas collecting 7 tons of garbage and ongoing 

annual efforts.

Tools to link community watershed activities to 

inclusive decision-making, resulting in five new waterrelated bylaws and three town council resolutions.

Twenty-five community members trained in facilitation skills.

Increased media profile of tri community efforts, resulting in 25 newspaper articles, 10 radio interviews, 

5 magazine articles and 3 television interviews.

Maintaining a Healthy, Free 

Flowing Ecosystem

The Towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley and 

Okotoks have demonstrated leadership, responsibility, and cooperation in the Tri Community Watershed 

Initiative. Their collective efforts have improved the 

quality of life in their communities by providing opportunities to address local level policy processes and 

engage in local watershed activities, which reflect the 

desires of community residents and the legacy they will 

leave for future generations. Through their involvement 

in the Tri Community Watershed Initiative, the Towns of 

Black Diamond, Turner Valley and Okotoks are connecting residents to environmental issues and demonstrating 

innovation and excellence through the development of 

knowledge, practices, and processes that suit the watershed needs of the three communities.

Influencing Watershed 

Behaviours

The Towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley and 

Okotoks have created strategic linkages within their 

communities and strengthened partnerships with such 

groups as Calgary Regional Partnership, RiverWatch, 

Earthwatch, Cows & Fish, Highwood Business 

•

•

•

•

•

Development Corporation, Headwaters Health Authority, 

and Canadian Cattlemen’s Association.

Most recently, the Tri Community Watershed 

Initiative formed a formal partnership with the Bow 

River Basin Council (BRBC) a non-profit, non-government, multi-stakeholder, charitable organization 

dedicated to conducting activities for the improvement 

and protection of the waters of the Bow River Basin. 

With a membership of more than 125 organizations, the 

BRBC maintains a forum for council members to share 

perspectives and exchange information, and encourages 

the implementation of cooperative water use management strategies through participation in activities that 

promote and demonstrate increased awareness of water 

use management issues.

The BRBC has identified support of the Tri Community 

Watershed Initiative as an important priority in its public 

information and education goals and objectives. The 

BRBC recognizes that by providing the opportunity for 

this initiative to more formally capture and share results 

among BRBC members, the council will enable a very 

powerful opportunity for other municipalities and groups 

to replicate similar successes. This multiplier effect will 

make a substantial contribution to the overall health and 

management of the Bow River Basin watershed, allowing 

more communities to learn from, and adapt and adopt, the 

innovative strategies and approaches developed through 

the Tri Community Watershed Initiative.

As partners, the Tri Community Watershed Initiative 

and BRBC have created a two-year project entitled 

Influencing Watershed Behaviours that aims to protect the 

Sheep River watershed by focusing on five main themes: 

integrated pest management, river valley management, 

water conservation, capacity building, and shared tools 

and resources. Specifically, the project will help:

reduce residential water consumption by identifying 

constraints and enablers to indoor and outdoor water 

conservation practices

reduce use, and create a better understanding, of 

residential pesticides by identifying constraints and 

enablers to improve residential integrated pest management (IPM) practices

protect river valley lands by undertaking a river valley management planning process and hosting local 

watershed workshops, planning sessions, field trips 

and river clean-ups

build capacity and share tools and resources among 

stakeholders in the BRBC and Calgary Regional 

Partnership by surveying members, identifying needs, 

producing generic resource materials and hosting information-sharing opportunities on water conservation 

and IPM issues.

•

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466 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The Influencing Watershed Behaviours project commenced April 2004 and to date a number of activities have 

been undertaken. This summer, the Town of Okotoks 

replaced approximately 200 residential water meters 

and provided free indoor water conservation kits as an 

incentive for residents to participate in wise water use, 

and an additional 500 homes received free outdoor water 

conservation kits. A Turner Valley neighbourhood hosted 

a xeriscape gardening information session, focus group 

and garden tour. The Okotoks Home Hardware store 

continues to provide in-store displays and discount coupons on water-efficient products. The Town of Okotoks 

was also recently chosen by the UN Year of Fresh Water 

for a Global television commercial on municipal water 

conservation to be aired over the next year. Local media 

coverage has assisted in promoting water conservation 

messages and the importance of protecting the aquatic 

health of the Sheep River. Future program components 

include a survey of BRBC members to identify common watershed concerns, a workshop to share project 

information, and development of generic Community 

Based Social Marketing resources materials on water 

conservation and integrated pest management, for use 

and replication among BRBC members.

Residents and stakeholders of the watershed are being 

made aware of the project through the use of door-todoor visits, focus group sessions, telephone surveys, 

fact sheets, posters, website information, demonstration 

sites, radio and television coverage, newspaper advertisements and articles, meetings and presentations. By 

increasing understanding, awareness, knowledge, and 

action towards a healthier Sheep River watershed, the 

project is establishing normative behaviours that focus 

on voluntary adoption of best management practices. The 

approach of the project is through a two-way dialogue 

between residents and municipal councils. Information 

sharing with external partners is also enabling residents 

and stakeholders to develop co-operative models for 

positive change and more informed decisions that collaborate on the strengths of those involved.

The environmental benefits will last long after the 

project is completed and will directly impact residents in 

the Towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley and Okotoks 

as well as members of the Bow River Basin Council, 

Calgary Regional Partnership, and the Sheep River Water 

Users Group. Residents who are installing water-saving 

devices and adopting water conservation behaviours 

are contributing to a decrease in water consumption and 

better progress towards demand management of water 

while saving money. Residents who implement integrated 

pest management techniques will contribute to a decrease 

in pesticide use and possibly voluntary elimination of 

pesticides from their yards and gardens. Outcomes and 

impacts will lead to important changes in the lives of 

community residents, as the project helps the towns address common municipal issues of residential water and 

pesticide use by using shared resources and a collective, 

co-operative joint-community approach.

The Towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley, and 

Okotoks have demonstrated leadership, responsibility 

and co-operation in their joint sustainable community 

development efforts over the past two years. This project 

will further support their collective efforts to improve 

the quality of life in their residents and connect to environmental/health benefits by providing opportunities to 

address local level policy and decision making processes 

which reflect the desires of community residents and the 

legacy they will leave for future generations. The project 

will reduce peak flow demands on infrastructure, stretch 

the use of available water, provide consumer savings 

(i.e. low-flow fixtures), protect the aquatic environment, 

contribute to the sustainability of the environment and 

water as a vital natural resource, and help meet increased 

demands of economic and population growth to proper 

management of the resource and ensure adequate water 

quantity and protect water quality.

Quotable Quotes

Here’s what people are saying about the TriCommunity Watershed Initiative:

“CCMN helps strengthen links between 

community-based environmental monitoring and 

decision making. We kind of have a corridor pilot 

project here in Alberta. It’s a wonderful, unique 

opportunity. We’re in close touch with each 

other so maybe we’ll be able to do something 

that broadens the network of communities 

here (in southern Alberta). This is a national 

program so we have resources available to us 

that might not otherwise be available. Some of 

these opportunities would not exist without this 

program.”

--Maureen Lynch, CCMN Project Coordinator for the 

towns of Black Diamond, Turner Valley and Okotoks on 

the formation of the Tri-Community Watershed Initiative 

(Source: Okotoks Western Wheel Newspaper – May 15, 

2002)

“The clean-up is an opportunity to show respect 

for the green areas of town. Picking up litter and 

garbage in our river valley means that litter and 

garbage isn’t going to continue down the valley. 

If we keep litter out of the river valley it will 

continue to look like a natural area. The regional 

aspect of the clean up is very important. We 

have to monitor the quality of water and ensure 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 467

that the entire river valley is clean and tidy. If 

we clean all that up we will feel better about the 

environment we live in.”

--Karen Brewka, Town of Okotoks Horticultural 

Specialist, on the importance of the First Ever Sheep 

River Clean Up Day (Source: Okotoks Western Wheel 

Newspaper - May 22, 2001)

“We finally get to go outside and do something 

instead of learning about it in a book. Everyone 

learns differently. Not everyone learns from 

books. The more you’re able to use your hands in 

things like this the more you remember.”

--Linnea Morris, Oilfields High School Biology 20 

Student, participating in the CCMN/RiverWatch monitoring day on the Sheep River in Black Diamond, AB 

(Source: Okotoks Western Wheel Newspaper - May 29, 

2002)

“The average Canadian adult spends six minutes a 

day outside...we really have sheltered ourselves. 

The students are here and they’re learning data 

but being outside is teaching them to become 

better people in the world too.”

--Jim Christie, Oilfields High School Biology Teacher, 

field trips like RiverWatch are an essential way for 

students to learn. (Source: Okotoks Western Wheel 

Newspaper – June 5, 2002)

“I think it’s a great thing for everyone to be 

learning, especially when you live in the area. 

It’s important for town council to support 

programs that involve our environment, youth, 

and everything that directly affects our drinking 

water.”

--Kristie Tucker, Black Diamond Town Councillor, on 

her participation with local Oilfields High School students in the CCMM/RiverWatch monitoring day (Source: 

Okotoks Western Wheel Newspaper – June 5, 2002)

“The kids are out there and it’s always the contact 

that make the biggest impression. That’s the first 

thing. The second thing is actually collecting the 

data and the third thing is having fun. This has 

been a complete success.”

--Stuart Peters, RiverWatch Project Coordinator, on 

the success of Oilfields High School Students’ participation in the CCMN/RiverWatch monitoring day (Source: 

Association of National Park Rangers RANGER Journal 

– Fall 2002)

“They’re (local residents) sophisticated in their 

understanding, and as politicians we need to 

listen. They’ve been very effective in directing 

water quality decisions. I feel pretty optimistic 

about the progress we can make as communities 

sharing the same watershed. We’ve come a long 

way. We’re recognizing the impact we can have 

by working collectively.”

--Jane Toews, Black Diamond Councillor re local 

residents’ profound influence on environmental decision 

making (Source: Canadian Nature Federation NATURE 

CANADA Magazine – Spring 2003)

“The big success was the three towns worked 

together so well. Conversations and discussions 

overcome barriers. Each person and household 

will have their own unique circumstances.”

--Maureen Lynch, Regional Coordinator of local 

CCMN project on the awareness and dedication generated over the past year (Source: Okotoks Western Wheel 

Newspaper – June 18, 2003)

“Well done! Keep up the excellent work in 

engaging your communities in the governance 

of the Sheep River watershed. The communitybased social marketing approach is proving to be 

very successful. These innovative and creative 

approaches are a very worthwhile means of 

achieving the health watershed that all three 

communities are striving for. Outreach and 

sharing is very important both within and among 

the three communities and out to others.”

--Teresa Chilkowich, Environment Canada EcoAction 

Coordinator (Source: Mountains as Water Towers 

Conference, November 2003)

“The towns (Black Diamond, Turner Valley 

& Okotoks) are committed to protecting and 

enhancing their shared watershed, and the 

proposed project will help the municipalities 

address common municipal issues of residential 

water use, using shared resources and a collective, 

co-operative joint-community approach.”

--Wayne Meikle, Chair, Healthy Okotoks Coalition 

(Source: letter dated January 27, 2004)

“This exciting project will assist in better policy 

decisions and increase stakeholder and residential 

awareness, support and participation in watershed 

initiatives. The towns of Black Diamond, 

Turner Valley and Okotoks have demonstrated 

leadership, responsibility and cooperation in 

sustainable community development over the 

past two years in their Tri Community Watershed 

Initiative efforts.”

--Mark Bennett, Executive Director, Bow River Basin 

Council (Source: letter dated February 1, 2004)
468 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

“Your project represents how municipalities 

can focus awareness and action towards the 

preservation, protection, and enhancement of 

their watershed for the benefit of all.”

--Jay Wieliczko, Senior Habitat Technician, Alberta 

Conservation Association(Source: letter dated February 

1, 2004)

“This clean water project clearly demonstrates 

your organization’s commitment to protecting and 

preserving our environment, and I am pleased to 

have your organization help us in our efforts. You 

are to be commended for your initiative in taking 

action in support of a healthy environment.”

--David Anderson, P.C., M.P., Environment Minister 

re approval of funding from EcoAction for “Influencing 

Watershed Behaviours” project (Source: letter dated 

April 26, 2004)

“I am sure that your project will not only 

make a tangible contribution to the quality of 

the environment in your community, but also 

encourage others to do their part. Individual 

Canadians, and groups such as yours, can help 

shape our country’s environmental future.”

--A. Anne McLellan, P.C., M.P., Edmonton West re 

receiving funding from Environment Canada for project 

“Influencing Watershed Behaviours” (Source: letter dated 

May 10, 2004).

References

Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network Coordinating 

Office (EMAN CO) and Canadian Nature Federation 

(CNF). 2003. Improving Local Decision-Making through 

Community Based Monitoring: Toward a Canadian 

Community Monitoring Network. ISBN 0-662-33894-4. 

22 p.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 469

Introduction and Background

At the beginning of the 21st century, the word, 

sustainability, is becoming a buzz word in a variety of 

different arenas. Although the word is often preceded 

by an adjective (for example, economic, environmental, 

ecological, etc.), it is less common to see sustainability 

discussed in a more holistic way that extends beyond a 

certain limited frame of reference. To a growing number 

of people, the concept of sustainability is more complex 

than often assumed and recognizes the extremely complex interactions between interrelated environmental, 

ecological, social, political, economic, and other factors. 

In fact, a working definition of sustainability that appears 

to be gaining traction is: the process of decision-making 

which allows future generations at least as many natural 

resource options as is available to this generation, while 

at the same time, fostering the growth and vitality of 

the spectrum of human institutions that support social 

stability.

This approach to sustainability is arising in large 

part due to a variety of realizations that were all but 

absent for much of the late 20th century. In addition to 

the development of a set of scientific and technological 

developments that converged to bring about a new and 

evolving view of the relationship between the numerous facets of the natural environment and a myriad of 

social institutions, the moral and intellectual bankruptcy 

of past resource management philosophies has become 

evident. For many years, extreme views regarding the 

relationship between human and environmental interests, 

advocating either preservation of the environment at the 

expense of social development and economic progress, or 

economic and commercial development with indifference to 

ecosystem health, dominated the discussion. This debate 

has been marked by each sides lack of tolerance for the 

other opinion. Today, the confluence of technological 

capabilities to collect and analyze enormous amounts of 

spatial and temporal data, an increasing understanding 

of the complex interrelationships between the myriad of 

physical and biological environmental systems and social 

institutions, and the experiences of failed paradigms concerning how people interact with the natural environment 

is creating a growing interested in, and potential for, the 

concept of the simultaneous sustainability of the natural 

environment and human institutions.

The complex interrelationships that exist between 

seemingly disparate environmental and humanistic interests are beginning to be recognized. This is evident 

in the way in which people learn. Recent developments 

in psychology have revealed how human beings receive, 

retain, and synthesize information into knowledge and 

applications. When the brain receives information 

that is in an isolated form and disconnected from a 

larger context, its significance is analogous to that of 

a single piece of a jigsaw puzzle. Any one piece has 

very little meaning in and of itself. However, when 

each of the individual pieces of the puzzle is seen in 

the context of the adjacent pieces, a picture begins to 

form that is recognizable and has meaning. Traditional 

methods of management and problem solving in natural resources have involved presenting information as 

individual and isolated puzzle pieces. For example, 

silvicultural practices designed to optimize some component of forest growth may be indifferent to wildlife, 

air/water quality, local societal well-being, and other 

The Role of Institutions of Higher Education in 

Sustainability: The Comprehensive, Public, Land-Grant 

University

Patrick J. Pellicane, Ph.D., Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—This paper introduces a background discussion of the importance of sustainability in the 21st century, the issues surrounding how we learn, the role of science, 

and the importance of interdisciplinarity with respect to ecological and socio-economic 

sustainability. Furthermore, background information is provided about the history and 

origins of the American public, land-grant university together with a discussion of a few 

of the opportunities and challenges that it faces with respect to its role as an engine to 

achieve sustainability.
470 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

interconnected factors. As such, this decision may have 

negative consequences that could overwhelm any forest 

growth efficiency. This approach makes it difficult, if 

not impossible, for people to grasp the numerous components of a problem or form a solution that accounts 

for the integrated effects of the component variables 

that define the issue. Future approaches to large-scale 

problem solving will have to represent the salient issues 

in the context of other important issues and integrate 

them in a geospatial and temporal framework.

For virtually all of the 20th century, techniques used 

by state and federal agencies to make surveys and 

measurements of environmental parameters lacked the 

sensitivity to provide crucial information for local situations and often missed or placed too much emphasis 

on environmental anomalies. Traditional tools lacked 

either the precision and/or robustness to provide the 

information upon which optimal land-use and other 

decisions could be based. Furthermore, it was often the 

case that field measurements were used only once and 

lacked the interoperability that is becoming increasingly 

in demand. The increasingly-available geo-spatial tools 

(for example, GPS, GIS, remote sensing, spatial statistics, 

and others), especially those that deal with pixel-based 

methodologies, are ameliorating many of the problems 

that were associated with traditional measurement 

techniques. There is now a mechanism whereby people 

in the natural resource management fields, as well as 

a myriad of other areas, can obtain information about 

very small and specific geographic areas and use it in a 

variety of ways.

People throughout the world are realizing that in 

order to achieve both a healthy and vital environment 

for this and future generations and to create thriving 

and sustainable ecosystem resources-based economies 

and other social institutions a unified framework must 

be put in place that will give people of all backgrounds 

access to high-quality information and knowledge regarding a myriad of resources. This framework must 

be spatially- and temporally-explicit; at the necessary 

level of resolution; be sensitive to diverse needs; and 

have a high utility for sustainability planning and decision-making.

Unifying Information and 

Knowledge

If society is to be successful in accomplishing its 

sustainability goals, then the unification of information 

and knowledge across disciplines will have to occur on a 

scale much greater than we are experiencing presently. In 

addition, institutions of higher education will have to play 

a leadership role. This will mean that the ways in which 

we teach, do research, and perform service/outreach will 

have to reflect the desired future outcomes.

In the much the same way that contemporary science has become increasingly fragmented, researchers 

in the natural resources arena have worked in intellectual isolation that separates, rather than connects, 

them from other fields that are impacted by their work. 

Much of the environmentally-related, biological science 

performed in the 20th century was often marked by a 

lack of connection to any human values or interactions. 

This philosophic approach to science has drifted away 

from that of the 17th and 18th century enlightenment 

thinkers, who many believe were essentially correct in 

their thinking. Their basic premise was that the greatest 

enterprise of the mind has always been and always will 

be the attempted linkage of the sciences and humanities. 

It is believed by some that the fragmentation of science 

that has occurred in the 20th century has caused thinkers 

to focus more on the discipline in which they operate 

(for example, the particular animal, plant, forest stand, 

rangeland, etc.) than on the bigger question of what are 

the social and ethical impacts of their work. Figure 1 is 

a schematic that may be useful in grasping the relationship between components of a problem. Each of the four 

quadrants defines a part of the contemporary academic 

mind. Each has its own practitioners, language, modes 

of analysis, and standards of validation. As the concentric rings are viewed, it becomes clear that the further a 

scientist is from the center (at 451 angles to the axes), 

the more intellectual isolation occurs. However, the vast 

majority of the important sustainability problems occur 

near the center of the figure. Here, most of the work is 

needed, but relatively little has been done.

Figure 1. Conceptualization of the nature of problems and 

their interactions.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 471

The American, Land-Grant, 

Public University Tradition

Prior to the 19th century, American colleges and 

universities were private with many being religionbased. With the founding of the institution that is today 

the University of Virginia by Thomas Jefferson, a new 

tradition in American higher education was initiated. 

In 1862, Abraham Lincoln, who was a serious student 

and admirer of Jefferson, signed the Morrill Act which 

created the national public, land-grant university system. The signing of this legislation during intense years 

of the Civil War was an act of optimism that reflected 

Lincoln’s sense of a growing and dynamic future. The 

land-grant university was designed to provide education 

to the children of all citizens in the “mechanical arts” (in 

other words, agriculture, engineering, etc.) and prepare 

the next generation of citizens with a liberal education 

that would facilitate the growth of a vital, democratic 

society. Many believe that the establishment of the 

land-grant university systems is the single greatest accomplishment of American education. Today, the role of 

the land-grant university has expanded considerably to 

include virtually every area of societal need, while at the 

same time, maintaining its role to which it was originally 

intended. In addition, the Historically Black Land Grant 

Universities created by the 1890 legislation, designed 

to educate the descendants of slaves, and the sea- and 

space-grant universities were created to fulfill additional 

societal needs to provide greater societal inclusiveness 

and address non-land-based issues.

Colorado State University, like many similar universities, not only offers programs in traditional areas, such as 

liberal arts, engineering, natural sciences, but recognizes 

its obligations to a state-wide constituency by offering a 

wide range of programs in agriculture, veterinary medicine and biomedical sciences, natural resources, and a 

variety of social and other human subject areas.

Opportunities and Challenges 

Facing Public Higher 

Educational Institutions

If sustainability in its greater holistic sense is to become a reality, it will be imperative that a major effort 

be developed which brings together diverse people from 

across the spectrum of societal institutions and across 

geopolitical boundaries. For any category of social institution (e.g., education, government, industry, etc.) the 

interactions between segments of society that contribute 

to the sustainability issue will be at least as important as 

those within any particular institution. In the paragraphs 

below, the issues facing public land-grant universities 

will be viewed from an internal perspective.

Major public research universities are extremely 

complex institutions. Inherent in their structures are 

such things as decentralized administrative units, faculty 

autonomy, tenure system, disciplinary-based academic 

organization, affiliations with state and federal natural 

resource agencies, and entrepreneurial environments 

that represent both opportunities and challenges with 

respect to being position to address sustainability issues. 

Although universities and other institutions of higher 

education have the ability to shape the future and impact 

the sustainability of social and ecological resources in 

many ways, the following paragraphs will address a 

few key opportunities and challenges that exist. The 

paragraphs below discuss a few of the issues related to 

the role of land-grant, public universities in promoting 

sustainability.

Opportunities

When they are at their best, universities are repositories 

for the most intellectually-aggressive, socially-responsive, and technically-proficient individuals, who when 

focusing their energies and talents on important social 

issues, can play a significant role in ameliorating social 

maladies and other issues that confront society. Recent 

examples at Colorado State University include work on 

improving the lives of people with diseases such as cancer 

and tuberculosis, homeland security, genetically-modified mouse models, equine reproduction, social issues 

revolving around ethnicity, and many others. In addition, 

through discovery that occurs in laboratories, studios, and 

other intellectual campus venues, patentable products are 

developed capable of stimulating economic activity and 

advancing society. The development of health monitoring 

devices, synthetic human tissue, mathematical processes 

to facilitate secure wireless communications, and others 

are typical of those innovations that not only improve society, but stimulate economic activity. Finally, university 

faculty has the opportunity to work with students who 

will be the next generation of leaders. As such, they have 

the ability to instill certain core values in students and set 

them on a trajectory towards understanding the complex 

relationships between people and natural resources with 

an eye toward the responsible use and management of 

these resources. To impact sustainability of human and 

ecological resources, integrated efforts at university 

campuses will be necessary to infuse into society the 

knowledge, educated citizenry, and applications needed 

to address the challenges and opportunities.
472 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Interdisciplinary programs and activity

To achieve sustainability in the 21st century, the integrated efforts of many people from diverse backgrounds, 

disciplines, and professional points of view will need to 

be assembled. To be successful people will have to understand the role of their profession and those of disparate, 

yet related, professions to achieve desired goals.

More progressive universities promote and encourage the initiation, growth, and vitality of programs that 

exploit the synergies associated with the collaboration 

of people from disparate, but complimentary disciplines. 

In the 21st century, it is becoming increasingly clear that 

people working at the center of traditional disciplines will 

not solve the most important societal problems. If the 

origin of the illustration in figure 1 depicts the intellectual 

neighborhood in which socially-meaningful solutions to 

sustainability and other vexing problems exist, it is very 

unlikely that any one person or group of disciplinarily 

similar individuals can have the breadth of knowledge 

to have a meaningful impact on such complex problems. 

Although no university can maintain a faculty of sufficient depth and breadth to address all socially important 

problems, when people working on the boundary of key 

disciplinary areas join forces, new intellectual areas can 

immerge that in time can evolve to provide new insights 

and perspectives. The talents of these people can be 

organized in a variety of ways to optimally exploit their 

capabilities and generate maximal synergy.

One way new fields can develop, grow, and gain 

recognition is by the creation of new programs that will 

ultimately become majors, and possibly, departments. 

From the work of intellectually-diverse individuals have 

arisen numerous new fields of endeavor. The past fifty 

years has been marked by the creation of many new 

fields that were derived from more established and traditional fields of study. Examples include: biochemistry 

evolving from biology and chemistry; mathematics, 

computer science, and electrical engineering forming 

computer engineering; geospatial sciences are derived 

from the combination of efforts from disciplines such as 

geography, computer science, information technology, 

and others; biomedical engineering developing from 

mechanical engineering and a variety of other biological and natural sciences; and many others. Today, these 

and other programs that were unheard of a generation or 

two ago are now ubiquitous on the national university 

landscape.

Although it is not difficult to find outstanding faculty, 

excellent facilities, and other indices of quality through 

the campus of many comprehensive, public, research 

universities; it is clear that the greatest growth will be 

in the areas where the institution can focus their existing 

strengths and exploit synergies to develop excellence in 

new and exciting areas. These strengths will usually be 

related to faculty expertise, infrastructure, local/regional 

industry, societal need, and a variety of other factors. By 

creating incentives and mobilizing talents, administrators 

can serve as catalysts to focus institutional resources in 

directions that will produce the greatest benefits to the 

university and society. The distinct advantages of mobilizing and organizing institutional resources to focus 

on key areas with social, scientific, technological, economic, and/or cultural relevance that have the ability to 

add value to society are becoming clear to many. One of 

the opportunities and responsibilities of senior university 

administrators is to be vigilant in identifying where future 

opportunities for long-term growth and vitality exist, 

and distinguish them from intellectual fads that have a 

short shelf-life. Once identified, an effective and efficient 

administrative structure needs to be developed that will 

marshal the human, physical, and financial infrastructure necessary to be successful. Finally, as important as 

knowing when the propitious time to create a center or 

institute has arrived, it is equally important to know when 

a concept has out-lived its usefulness and be willing to 

move resources to a more profitable areas.

At universities where interdisciplinary programs 

are promoted and sufficient intellectual diversity exists, the potential for combining the talents of experts 

in geospatial sciences, biology, economics, sociology, 

natural resources, and many other fields to address the 

sustainability issue exists. By creating centers, institutes, 

and other administrative entities that bring attention to 

specific institutional strengths, universities can attract 

public attention and support and the financial resources 

necessary to achieve their goals.

Triad mission of education, research, and 

outreach

One of the most basic aspects of public land-grant 

universities is the triad mission of education, research, 

and outreach/service. In these three components of the 

modern university exists the full range of activities that 

relate to the discovery of knowledge, the transmission 

of that knowledge to the next generation of practitioners, 

and finally, the application of that knowledge to opportunities and challenges that face society. Of particular 

relevance are the relationships that exist between these 

three activities. In operationally complex universities, 

it is difficult to draw distinct lines between the various 

mission components. The Venn diagram in figure 2 illustrates conceptually the overlap of the educational, 

research, and service/outreach missions of a public, 

land-grant university.

Although the numerous interrelationships between 

the various components of the university mission can 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 473

be variable between areas, a few examples can illustrate 

the concept. The research mission provides students with 

financial support and the opportunity to conduct basic 

and/or applied research under the guidance of an experienced mentor, and as such, supports the educational 

mission. Students provide labor, energy, a fresh point 

of view to enhance the research mission. Furthermore, 

their contributions to the undergraduate teaching activity 

free the time of faculty to pursue research activities and 

provide excellent training for the faculty of the future. 

There are a variety of natural connections between the 

outreach/service activities and the research and educational efforts of a public university. Student education 

is enhanced when they have the opportunity to apply 

their knowledge to real problems. Issues that arise in the 

service/ outreach enterprise for which an answer does 

not exist can often result in new concepts for research 

proposals. As such, a synergy exists between these efforts that can be applied to enhance the promotion of 

sustainability.

Connection to industry, government, and 

other stakeholders

It has become abundantly clear that a successful university takes the threads of undergraduate and graduate 

education, research, and service/outreach and weaves a 

complex fabric of programs that enriches the campus 

environment. At a major research university, a thriving 

and energetic contract and grant research enterprise will 

be a powerful engine to drive the growth and vitality 

of the entire institution. At CSU, annual contract and 

grant activity now exceeds $200 million. This amount 

places CSU among the top three public universities that 

are not affiliated with medical schools in sponsored 

research dollar volume. The CSU indirect cost distribution model is such that slightly more than half of the 

captured revenues are sent to general university accounts. 

Although not completely obvious to the general faculty, 

the educational and outreach missions are enhanced 

by an aggressive, successful, and growing research 

enterprise. The remaining indirect cost recovery is returned to the college and department of origin to support 

and stimulate growth of their research programs. This 

infusion of resources, as well as the ideas that promote 

the development of research proposals to address new and 

important issues, result from the connections that exist 

between universities and external stakeholders. External 

constituencies can take a variety of forms. However, 

typical types of external stakeholders include: industry 

(individual companies, trade associations, etc.), state and 

federal agencies, private foundations, NGO’s, etc.

Challenges

Although public, land-grant universities are ripe with 

opportunities, there are also a number of challenges that 

they face with respect to being instruments to promote 

the concurrent sustainability of both socio-economic 

and ecological systems. In the paragraphs below, a few 

of these issues will be discussed.

Funding

As stated previously, universities rely on external 

sources of support to advance their research mission and 

support graduate education. For many reasons, support 

from external constituents is both desirable and necessary. However, it is not without some difficulties. As a 

receiver of support, university research priorities often 

reflect the funding priorities of external groups. As such, 

university research directions are often driven by the 

vicissitudes of markets, current political influences, and 

other idiosyncratic issues. Therefore, universities are 

sometimes forced to surrender their role as leaders, and 

accept positions of followers of societal interests.

Another funding issue relates to the cost of doing research. As science and technology are advancing at rapid 

rates, it is becoming increasingly difficult to develop and 

maintain the infrastructure necessary to perform modern 

research that will create the greatest social value. Issues 

related to buying arcane equipment needed for biological and other science/engineering research, together 

with creating an infrastructure conducive to storing and 

maintaining laboratory animals in a legally-sanctioned 

environment are becoming increasingly vexing.

Faculty autonomy

At American universities, faculty members are often 

protected by rules of tenure that have served them well 

over many decades. Tenure, as originally designed, was 

to ensure position security which would allow faculty 

to express opinions and forms of intellectual freedom in 

a way that would shelter them from academic reprisal. 

Today, under the blanket of tenure, faculty enjoys a great 

Figure 2. Venn diagram showing the interrelations between 

the components of the land-grant, public University’s triad 

mission.
474 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

deal of freedom to act independently. With this in mind, it 

is more difficult to get faculty to work in areas that they 

do not find interesting or appealing. When appropriate 

incentives are in place, faculty could be encouraged to 

participate in programs that could provide a wealth of 

collateral benefits to students, faculty, the greater university, and a variety of external constituents.

Developing faculty cooperation to promote sustainability poses some unique issues that need consideration. 

Because sustainability of human and ecological systems 

demands the talents of people from virtually every 

college, who practice different modes of operation in 

their fields and even use different technical language, 

getting broad-based involvement is difficult. In addition, there are many individuals on university faculties 

that are reluctant to interact with people whose intellectual disciplines are very different than their own. 

As such, getting the interdisciplinary cooperation that 

needed to successfully promote sustainability will be 

problematic.

Administrative structure

Academic programs in American universities are 

most often organized in departments which are administratively placed in colleges. This structure has served 

the academic community well for many decades and 

is a fundamental part of the university landscape. For 

all of the value that this arrangement has added to the 

American educational system, it is not without shortcomings that represent obstacles to cooperation between 

diverse individuals who have contributions to make to 

interdisciplinary programs in general, and sustainability 

efforts in particular.

Departments within colleges are often composed of 

like-minded and disciplinarily homogeneous professionals. This creates a focused intellectual group that tends to 

see issues from a singular point of view. Although there 

are countless advantages to such an arrangement, it does 

not lend itself particularly well to creating the intellectual 

diversity that is needed to address many of the more 

complex and vexing problems associated with the sustainability of ecological and socio-economic resources. 

At more progressive and mature universities, administrative structures exist in which mechanisms are in place 

to allocate teaching credit, indirect cost recoveries, and 

other products of cooperation in a systematic and rational 

fashion. When these processes are in place, meaningful 

cooperation that crosses departmental and collegiate 

boundaries becomes relatively straight-forward, encouraged, and nurtured. For many universities which are more 

entrenched in traditional modes of operation, the lack of 

faculty incentives and other systemic obstacles create a 

reasonably impermeable barrier to cooperation. However, 

even in these environments, there exist many examples of 

excellent cooperative educational, research, and outreach 

activities. Most of these usually result from contributions 

of faculty time and effort beyond those expected of them 

in their normal work assignments. Unfortunately, when 

these efforts result from the generosity and professional 

interest of the faculty without administrative support, 

their probability of being successful over a long period of 

time decrease, and their intellectual vitality enjoy a short 

lifetime than might have been had with more proactive 

administrative assistance.

Conclusions

Universities have an enormous opportunity to develop, 

transmit, and apply the knowledge needed to advance the 

cause of sustainability in the 21st century. Their wealth 

of intellectual resources, contact with groups that identify 

issues and can utilize intellectual products, and ability to 

shape the minds of the next generation of professionals 

are only a few of the potential contributions that they 

can make. In addition, there are a variety of funding and 

structural issues that hamper universities in their efforts 

to be leaders in this area.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 475

Introduction

In 2000, fires burned 307,000 acres of the Bitterroot 

National Forest (Forest), almost a fifth of the Forest’s 

land area. Like bark beetles homing in on charred trees, 

researchers swarmed to the Bitterroot. While the Forest 

has long been a focus of research, we suddenly had 60 

research projects going on at once. At the same time, 

we were designing a comprehensive post-fire recovery 

project, which involved a huge and controversial Burned 

Area Recovery Environmental Impact Statement. Taking 

on tracking and coordinating research projects with recovery work was a daunting task. We also wanted to use 

the best available science in preparing the Environmental 

Impact Statement, and encourage research into questions 

that plagued us, and would likely plague other Forests 

faced with managing their lands post-fire.

Previous to this, the Bitterroot Ecosystem Management 

Research Project (BEMRP) had discussed creating a 

boundary spanner position. A boundary spanner is a 

person who works at the interface of science and land 

management, acting as a bridge between the two cultures 

represented by research scientists and land managers. 

The fires of 2000 provided the impetus, and let’s face 

it, the funding, to bring on that person—given the title 

of research/management coordinator. BEMRP and the 

Bitterroot National Forest jointly fund this position.

BEMRP is a unit of the Rocky Mountain Research 

Station that is run as a partnership involving the Rocky 

Mountain Research Station, Aldo Leopold Wilderness 

Research Institute, Bitterroot National Forest, Northern 

Region of the Forest Service, and University of Montana. 

Its mission is to “strengthen the scientific theory and 

practice of managing Rocky Mountain ecosystems at the 

landscape level in the context of social, economic, and 

ecological opportunities and constraints.” BEMRP itself 

is a boundary spanning group, providing researchers 

and managers an opportunity to directly interact, share 

research ideas, and design studies of mutual interest.

BEMRP and the Bitterroot National Forest defined 

three primary tasks for the boundary spanner:

Coordinate research activities taking place on the 

Forest.

Increase technology transfer and outreach.

Foster increased dialogue among and between researchers and managers.

This paper describes our experiences with each of 

these, and discusses lessons learned.

1.

2.

3.

A Successful Experiment: The Boundary Spanner on the 

Bitterroot National Forest

Sharon Ritter, Research/Management Coordinator, Bitterroot National Forest, Hamilton, MT

Abstract—The Bitterroot Ecosystem Management Research Project and the Bitterroot 

National Forest funded a boundary spanner to coordinate research activities taking place 

on the Forest, increase technology transfer and outreach, and foster increased dialogue 

among and between researchers and managers. Coordination involved use of a research 

special use permit and a GIS map to track research projects. This led to protection of 

researchers’ study sites and forest resources, increased cooperation between and among 

the Forest and researchers, and safer working conditions. Technology transfer involved 

a mixture of methods, the most successful of which were events like field trips that 

provided opportunities for researchers, resource managers, and the public to interact. 

The boundary spanner helped increase dialogue among and between researchers 

and managers through personal interactions. A good boundary spanner should have 

a strong interest in research and learning in multiple discipline areas, minimal biases 

against researchers or land managers, willingness to understand the different cultures 

and organizational structures, good communication skills including listening skills, diplomacy, willingness to spend time working directly with people on both sides of the 

research/management boundary, good organizational skills, and willingness to network 

with a larger community of educators, other agencies, and the public.
476 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Boundary Spanner Task #1: 

Coordination of Research 

Activities

In 2001, the Forest started using the special use permit 

system to keep track of researchers working within the 

Forest’s boundaries. This requirement was unique in the 

Northern Region and rare elsewhere. Each researcher 

was required to apply for a permit and provide a study 

plan and map. The boundary spanner reviewed the study 

plan, checked for overlap with other research studies, and 

coordinated reviews by the botanist, heritage program 

manager, and wilderness program manager. Then the 

appropriate district ranger signed the permit, and the 

boundary spanner made copies of the permit and study 

plans available to the other districts. Depending on the 

completeness of the study plan and other materials, and 

the rangers’ availability, permits took from a week to four 

weeks to get signed. We never denied a permit, although 

we did ask for modifications to protect resources.

Previous to the research permit system, the Forest had 

research projects going on within its boundaries that the 

district rangers didn’t know about and hadn’t approved. 

Often, we didn’t even receive reports on research that 

took place on the Forest, sometimes not hearing about it 

until seeing a publication years afterwards. We created 

a list of research projects that we posted on our website 

including summaries of objectives. Having a person track 

the projects kept Forest employees informed and other 

researchers learned about existing projects that might 

overlap theirs. The public also learned about various 

projects this way.

We also created a GIS map showing all study site 

locations and provided a copy to each Forest district 

(fig. 1). This helped in two ways. First, when planning 

a project such as a timber sale or weed-spraying, they 

could check to see if there might be any conflicts with 

research sites. Second, when someone came across study 

site markers on the Forest, they could figure out whose 

study sites they were. Recently, the Forest started NEPA 

analysis on a prescribed burn. When we noticed that the 

burn would take place on a researcher’s study area, we 

contacted him to find out whether this would prove to 

be a problem, and might have to be postponed. It turned 

out that this researcher needed to burn his plots after the 

first year of data collection anyway, which would have 

required NEPA analysis, so this particular project worked 

out perfectly for all of us.

Tracking research on the Forest provided direct benefits to the researchers. We let them know ahead of time 

about road and area closures, so they could arrange their 

work to avoid them. During the two years we were most 

actively involved in burned timber salvage operations, 

we knew which researchers were going to be where, 

and helped them contact the sale administrators when 

they needed to enter a timber sale area otherwise closed 

to the public. We provided safety training and notices, 

informed them of our closed gate policy, provided sensitive plant lists, and cloned radios for them (with some 

restrictions). We provided them with data, maps, GIS 

layers, and aerial photos to help plan field work and 

complete data analysis.

An especially important part of the boundary spanner’s 

coordination work was letting researchers know of other 

research and management activities going on. This led 

to more communication among the researchers, so that 

they could benefit from each other and avoid duplication of effort and overlap of study sites. For example, 

we had two projects studying debris flows, and one of 

the researchers was excited to learn about the aerial 

photos taken by the other researchers. Fire history maps, 

burn severity maps, and other data compiled by some 

researchers saved others much time and effort. Without 

the boundary spanner being aware of all of the projects, 

these researchers might not have heard about the efforts 

of others for years afterwards.

Some researchers at first resented having to apply for a 

permit. Other researchers recognized the value of managers knowing what research was going on and where. One 

researcher eventually was saved from having control sites 

logged thanks to our research map showing study site 

locations. In another case, we had three research sites in 

areas the Forest planned to treat for noxious weeds. We 

arranged to delay treatments there for a few years until 

the research field work was completed.

Because researchers aren’t always aware of the workings of a national forest, they occasionally expected the 

boundary spanner to have more control and knowledge 

of activities than a person in that position could have. 

Despite a few mishaps where a researcher’s study site 

Figure 1. A portion of the Bitterroot National Forest research 

map showing locations of 6 study sites. This area also has 

active forest management and recreational use. For scale, 

Lake Como is 3 miles long. Illustration by Sharon Ritter.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 477

markers were removed, we’ve been generally successful 

at protecting researchers’ plots. During the Burned Area 

Recovery project, we asked researchers to let us know if 

any of their plots in the burned areas needed to be protected and designed projects to avoid those sites.

Lesson Learned #1

Try to make researchers aware of the boundary 

spanner’s duties and limitations, that they’re in a working Forest not an experimental one, and that a district 

ranger has jurisdiction over what activities take place 

on the district. This conversation needs to be up front, 

perhaps relayed in a website or as part of the permit approval process. Also, as part of the permitting process, 

it would help to have the researchers describe how they 

will mark their plots. We had to send one researcher 

back out into a wilderness area to paint over the fluorescent orange paint used on trees to mark plots. If we had 

known ahead of time what he planned to do, we would 

have told him this type of marking wasn’t appropriate 

in a wilderness area.

Lesson Learned #2

The Forest found that having someone track research 

projects was valuable and recommends that if you can 

swing it, with or without permits, do it. It’s worth it for 

both sides, whether you have five or 50 studies. The research study site map was particularly useful for keeping 

track of projects.

Boundary Spanner Task #2: 

Increase Technology Transfer 

and Outreach

Forest Service resource managers rarely get funded to 

go to conferences, and when they do, they usually attend 

ones specific to their resource. But in their jobs, they must 

manage across disciplines, and the more they understand 

about those various disciplines and resources, the better 

they will be able to manage our public lands. In addition, 

they want to use the most up-to-date research available. 

Scientists in turn are interested in providing research that 

is meaningful and useful to land managers.

The boundary spanner helped increase the level of 

technology transfer and public outreach conducted by 

researchers working on the Forest. We had field trips 

involving researchers and resource managers, and 

others including members of the public. We had a full 

day of research presentations, and several smaller sessions with one to three researchers talking. We created 

posters and displays, posted the list of research projects 

on the Forest’s website, added information about current research projects to our annual monitoring report, 

connected researchers with other community groups, 

and provided research story ideas to newspapers and 

television.

Field trips were very successful for managers, researchers, and the public. An example of one field trip 

was to a Research Natural Area where the Forest and 

researchers from the Rocky Mountain Research Station 

and University of Montana have been treating grasslands 

with herbicides and prescribed burning and adjacent 

low elevation ponderosa pine forest with thinning and 

prescribed burning (fig. 2). A ranch manager attended 

another field trip there a few years earlier, and encouraged 

by the results that were monitored by the researchers, 

subsequently treated more than 6,000 acres of a nearby 

ranch in a similar way (fig. 3). Our field trip included the 

ranch treatment areas, and comments back from both the 

public and land managers were all positive.

The one-on-one chance to interact on these trips, in 

the field, is extremely important. It fosters connections, 

and encourages conversations that lead to new research 

questions and increased use of existing research. It gives 

the researchers feedback on how research is being used, 

whether it’s providing practical information, and a feeling 

of appreciation for what they are doing. For managers, 

the personal connection with the researchers increases 

their interest in the studies, and gives them a chance 

Figure 2. Researchers monitored results of thinning, weed 

control, and an understory burn at the Sawmill Research 

Natural Area. Success of these treatments encouraged the 

neighboring Burnt Fork Ranch to apply similar treatments. 

Photo by Mick Harrington.
478 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to ask questions about past research such as how it applies to other situations, and to learn about preliminary 

observations from current work. When members of the 

public attended, they added another dimension to the 

discussions, showing researchers what the public’s concerns and questions are, and helping them comprehend 

that there are other factors besides science behind land 

managers’ decisions.

Lesson Learned #3

Don’t shy away from field trips. They take time to set 

up and advertise, and have a limited “distribution” compared to, say, a research report. But the benefits are worth 

the effort on many levels. By getting media coverage, 

you can increase the dissemination of the information, 

and word-of-mouth from the attendees also serves to 

disseminate results.

The benefits of locally held seminars weren’t as clear. 

The turnout wasn’t as good as we had hoped, from either 

the public or the resource managers, although those who 

did attend were excited and appreciative afterwards. 

We expected more resource managers to jump on the 

chance to get a personalized presentation right in their 

own area. The most successful event we had was when 

we scheduled eight speakers in a day. This allowed for 

interdisciplinary learning, and the researchers enjoyed 

the interaction also. The full day of talks may also have 

been important enough to the managers to keep them out 

of the field for a day, whereas a noontime seminar may 

have cut into their day too much.

Lesson Learned #4

If your target audience is resource managers, hold the 

seminars during the day, and schedule multiple talks in 

one day.

An important part of the research special use permit 

was a requirement that researchers provide the Forest 

with copies of any reports resulting from the research 

on the Forest. As projects concluded, the coordinator 

checked researchers’ websites and contacted them to 

be sure we received publications. We added these to 

the Forest’s planning library, so that in the future, when 

we designed management projects, we had easy access 

to locally derived information. Often, in the past when 

we did receive reports, they went into the files of a few 

specialists on the Forest, rather than put in a library and 

indexed so they were available to everyone.

Some researchers were reluctant to participate in technology transfer activities because of the time involved. 

On the other hand, other researchers went out of their 

way to help disseminate results in ways most useful to 

the public and resource managers, which was interacting 

face-to-face. Researchers have different abilities to communicate results. Some are better with the public than 

others are, some are better at writing than public speaking. Similarly, managers and the public have different 

learning styles. Some prefer to read publications; others 

learn better listening to talks or being on a field trip.

Lesson Learned #5

Everyone is busy. Make the best use of each person’s 

time to disseminate information in a way that works for 

both sides of the boundary.

The boundary spanner took on some additional tasks 

to help the Forest and the Rocky Mountain Research 

Station. When resource managers needed scientific information for management analyses, the boundary spanner 

helped find publications and directed the managers to 

researchers familiar with the particular issues. Currently, 

Forests throughout the west are putting together green 

fuel reduction projects that will involve thinning, prescribed burning, or a combination of the two. The Rocky 

Mountain Research Station and the Forest agreed to have 

the boundary spanner work on an annotated bibliography 

of Northern Rockies research studies looking at the effects of these types of treatments on various resources 

such as soils, wildlife, and water. The bibliography of 

approximately 250 papers is annotated because of the 

difficulty many forest resource managers have in obtaining copies of publications, especially people working in 

remote areas. This bibliography was a direct response to 

the needs expressed by the managers, and was starting to 

get used as soon as people heard it was underway.

Figure 3. Private forester Craig Thomas reports on the Burnt 

Fork Ranch treatments to a group of resource managers 

and members of the public on a field tour. Photo by Janie 

Canton-Thompson.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 479

Boundary Spanner Task 

#3: Fostering Increased 

Dialogue Among and Between 

Researchers and Managers

Researchers don’t want to work in a vacuum. They 

want to be sure that their proposed research will be useful 

to managers, and that their completed research is getting 

out there and used. Managers are frustrated when research 

doesn’t meet their needs. The boundary spanner’s third 

task was to help build closer relationships that would 

result in improved communication. Researchers and 

land managers have visited both formally and informally 

through field trips, seminars, and special meetings that 

gave them a chance to share ideas and concerns, and to 

learn more about each other.

Understanding each other is an important part of 

communicating. In a 1997 report resulting from a workshop held at the Rensselaerville Institute in New York, 

Integrating Science and Decisionmaking: Guidelines for 

Collaboration Among Managers and Researchers in the 

Forest Service, the two cultures are described this way:

Culture of Research

Time horizons are often long.

Interest is in findings that can be generalized outside 

the study area.

Rewards come from publication and peer recognition.

Freedom of inquiry is expected.

Validation often comes from outside the agency.

Science is less a statement of truth than a running 

argument.

Scientists accept that things will change.

Science thrives on contention—the more questions, 

the better.

Researchers expect explicit assumptions.

Researchers express findings as probabilities.

Culture of Management

Time frames are often tight.

Closure of issues is desirable.

Clients are often contentious.

Operations are driven by specific objectives.

Work is performed in a fishbowl.

The public must be involved in decision-making.

Decisions are based on many factors, one of which 

is science.

Definition of acceptable risk is part of the job.

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The boundary spanner’s goal is to build a bridge 

between these two cultures so that they can understand, 

trust, and respect each other.

Thanks to the efforts of BEMRP and the boundary 

spanner, managers have helped direct research toward 

questions important for managing resources. Researchers 

appreciate that managers recognize their research efforts and sincerely want to make use of the results of 

their work. Some funding sources, such as the Joint Fire 

Sciences program, place a strong emphasis on coordination with a land management agency. Researchers 

that maintain close communication with the Bitterroot 

National Forest benefit from these relationships.

Lesson Learned #6

Spend time developing personal, one-on-one contact 

with the researchers, and foster interaction between the 

researchers and resource managers. While this may not 

be feasible in many areas, where the two groups are 

located near each other such as we are in the Bitterroot, 

this is valuable. It’s easy to stick with your own kind, 

researchers hanging out with researchers and managers 

hanging out with managers. It takes an effort to cross 

that cultural boundary, but is important.

What Makes a Good Boundary 

Spanner?

Lesson Learned #7

Each person who might serve in a position as a boundary spanner will have weaknesses and strengths. Here are 

some qualities that a boundary spanner should have:

Strong interest in research and familiarity with the 

scientific method. A boundary spanner needs to know 

what scientists need to design and carry out a successful, scientifically sound research project.

Strong interest in learning in multiple discipline areas, 

and the capability to do so.

Minimal pre-existing biases against either researchers 

or land managers.

Willingness to spend time getting to know the organizational structures and cultures of the two sides of the 

boundary, and willingness to learn about constraints 

and reward systems of each. Feel free to hire an 

“outsider,” someone who isn’t so ingrained in either 

research or management that she or he can’t step back 

and understand both sides.

1.

2.

3.

4.
480 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Good communication skills, both in writing and 

in speaking. This includes someone who is a good 

listener and is able to effectively communicate by 

e-mail and phone.

Diplomatic skills--someone who people feel they can 

trust. The boundary spanner will received confidences 

from both sides of the boundary, and must be able to 

enhance understanding and resolve conflicts without 

betraying those confidences. The boundary spanner 

also needs to use tact when dealing with conflicts and 

various personalities.

Willingness to make the effort to get to know people on 

both sides of the boundary. This may require having a 

work space in both locations, so that they can interact 

with both groups in informal as well as formal ways. 

The boundary spanner needs to be able to empathize 

with both sides of the boundary, and this requires taking the time to get to know the individuals.

Good organizational skills for tasks like setting up 

meetings, field trips, and seminars, and tracking multiple research projects.

Willingness to be connected to the larger community 

served, whether it’s the public, environmental educators, school teachers, nonprofits, regional office of the 

Forest Service, director’s office of the research group, 

or other groups. This networking is very important for 

success in technology transfer and outreach.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.

Applicability Elsewhere

The Bitterroot National Forest is lucky to have so 

much local research taking place and access to such a 

fine cadre of researchers. This is thanks in part to being 

close to the University of Montana and Rocky Mountain 

Research Station. The Forest’s mix of managed land 

and relatively unmanaged wilderness areas, its variety 

of habitat types, and several long-term data sets make it 

an ideal laboratory.

One question is how would our lessons learned apply 

to a more remote location, perhaps one so remote from 

research stations and universities that only a few studies 

take place and researchers visit infrequently? Having 

someone designated as a boundary spanner who can 

keep track of projects and help with technology transfer 

is important for every land management agency. How it 

works might vary based on the number of studies and accessibility to researchers. In some cases, a regional office 

might need to take on more of the boundary spanner technology transfer role. The individual management units, 

however, should track the projects and take advantage 

when any of the researchers show up. By the nature of 

their jobs, these scientists are up-to-date on literature and 

genuinely interested in sharing their results and learning 

about what kind of information resource managers need 

to effectively manage the lands under their care.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 481

Introduction

On November 4, 2002, the Canadian Government 

announced its financial commitment towards tri-level 

financing for the construction of a sewage treatment 

plant for St. John’s Harbour in Newfoundland, Canada. 

This announcement was the result of many years of applied research, monitoring, educational campaigns, and 

numerous related efforts to influence decision-makers, 

conducted by a dedicated group, St. John’s Harbour 

ACAP Inc. The St. John’s group is a member of a community-based program, launched in 1991 by Environment 

Canada, known as the Atlantic Coastal Action Program 

(ACAP). (Environment Canada 2003).

St. John’s Harbour ACAP Inc. is just one of 14 organizations in Atlantic Canada, with a 15th soon to be added 

in Labrador, nested under the ACAP umbrella. There 

are two ACAP sites in Newfoundland, two in Prince 

Edward Island and five each in the provinces of Nova 

Scotia and New Brunswick. Like the St. John’s group, 

all of the ACAP sites are dedicated toward achieving 

sustainability in their communities and all have experienced successes in influencing local and/or regional 

policy and decision-makers. A few examples of these 

Partnerships in Community-based Approaches to 

Achieving Sustainability: The Atlantic Coastal Action 

Program

F. Rousseau, Research and Liaison Officer, Environment Canada - Atlantic Region, 

Community and Departmental Relations, Sustainable Communities and Ecosystems 

Division, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada, B2Y 2N6

Colleen McNeil, Coordinator, Atlantic Coastal Action Program, Environment Canada - 

Atlantic Region, Community and Departmental Relations, Sustainable Communities and 

Ecosystems Division, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada, B2Y 2N6

Larry Hildebrand, Manager, Atlantic Coastal Action Program, Environment Canada - Atlantic 

Region, Community and Departmental Relations, Sustainable Communities and 

Ecosystems Division, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada, B2Y 2N6

Abstract—The Government of Canada believes that a healthy democracy requires 

the active engagement of its citizens in understanding the economic, social, and environmental issues faced by the nation. In the Atlantic Region, Environment Canada 

has been actively working, for more than a decade, on helping citizens achieve this 

integrated view and providing local communities with the means to develop their own 

visions of sustainability. In this regard, the Atlantic Coastal Action Program (ACAP) has 

been one of Environment Canada Atlantic Region’s greatest success stories. ACAP is a 

community-based program that promotes local leadership and action. For more than 

13 years, ACAP activities have involved thousands of community residents working 

as volunteers in local and regional initiatives. Their successes include solving complex 

problems related to sewage treatment, toxic contaminants and water quality, building 

local capacity and, educating their communities on issues such as pollution prevention, 

monitoring, climate change, assessment and household hazardous wastes to name a 

few. By working as a partner with local communities rather than imposing decisions, 

Environment Canada has helped a diversity of communities to responsibly address 

environmental issues of “local interest.” When communities realize that they can solve 

some of their own problems, they are empowered and can directly (or indirectly) influence decision-makers and policy makers. All of the ACAP groups have experiences 

in collaborative ecosystem management that have influenced local and/or regional 

decision-making. This paper outlines a number of these experiences, describes ACAP 

and its process as well as ACAP’s influence within Environment Canada and the rest 

of the Atlantic Region.
482 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

successes, including that of St. John’s Harbour ACAP 

Inc., are outlined throughout this paper.

ACAP and the ACAP Communities

Environment Canada initiated the ACAP program in 

response to both the need to restore and sustain watersheds and adjacent coastal areas in the Atlantic Provinces 

and the growing public demand for involvement in decision-making related to their own environments. The 

main objective was to get communities involved with 

governments in developing restoration and maintenance 

plans and actions for harbours and estuaries in Atlantic 

Canada. The process, now in its third phase, has involved 

the development and implementation of comprehensive 

environmental management plans (CEMP) in each community, partnership building, local action and awareness 

projects, and the advancement of science. Originally 

focused on water quality issues, the program has evolved 

to focus on wider sustainability issues, including those 

of an economic and social nature.

The 14 coastal communities involved in ACAP were 

identified at the outset as “hot spots, or areas experiencing significant ecological degradation. The communities 

range in character from urban settings with heavy pollution of harbours, to areas with traditional industries 

associated with pollution and to areas with runoff from 

heavily fertilized and chemically treated farmland. In 

accordance with this range of character, ACAP community successes also range widely from solving complex 

problems related to sewage treatment, toxics and water 

quality, to building local capacity and educating their 

communities on pollution prevention, monitoring, assessment, and household hazardous wastes. ACAP 

accomplishments are, in fact, widely recognized and 

they continue to gain respect and credibility on the local, 

national, and international stages (Environment Canada 

2003).

ACAP Phases I, II and III

In Phase I (1991to1996) of the program, Environment 

Canada (EC) provided ‘core funding’ to the independent, 

non-profit ACAP organizations, so each could hire an 

Executive Director, set up an office and complete their 

planning documents (the CEMP mentioned above) for 

their regions. The CEMP was the primary focus of this 

phase and involved a thorough investigation of the critical issues affecting local resources, an assessment of the 

remedial options available, and a choice of options which 

best served the environmental and socio-economic objectives of the community. The CEMPs, which remain 

central to the ACAP sites today, were intended to help 

guide the communities in the future management of their 

ecosystem, outlining expected time frames for implementation of plans and responsible stakeholders.

For the subsequent two phases of ACAP, Environment 

Canada has provided annual funding to the groups for the 

implementation of their CEMPs. The funds are provided 

for work in the following areas: knowledge generation, 

capacity building, direct action and the advancement 

of science. This support helps to build the local capacity and knowledge required for communities to make 

informed decisions and address complex issues related 

to the environment.

ACAP relies on local involvement and support. While 

Environment Canada contributes to project funding, 

community stakeholders contribute most of the resources 

through volunteer labour, in-kind contributions, and 

financial support effectively levered from other federal 

departments, provincial and municipal governments, 

academia, other ENGOs, industry and local businesses. 

ACAP projects thus result in a variety of partnerships and 

these consistently demonstrate the value of an inclusive 

community-based approach and produce results on an 

ecosystem-wide basis.

Science Linkages Program

In Phase II of ACAP, a Science Linkages Program 

was launched to enable ACAP organizations to conduct 

science in partnership with EC scientists. EC developed 

the program in answer to requests from both the ACAP 

sites and the EC scientists. The sites wanted to not only 

take responsibility for their part of the ecosystem but 

to possess the skills and the information required to 

carry out those responsibilities; the scientists wanted 

the benefit of having trained volunteers helping them to 

fill information gaps and to do quality science. Together, 

the partners develop proposals, conduct scientific work 

of mutual interest, and report results. Since its inception 

in 1997, over 60 EC scientists have transferred their 

knowledge of scientific methods and practices to the 

ACAP organizations, while the organizations in turn have 

helped the government scientists to gather missing data, 

to bring partners to the table who would not normally 

participate with government, provided volunteer hours 

and, provided valuable knowledge about local science 

needs and ecosystems (Environment Canada 2003)

Windows

Environment Canada is in partnership with the ACAP 

sites and, as with all good partnerships, effective communications are a must. To ensure that participants in 

the ACAP initiative are always linked, Environment 

Canada has come up with a unique way to maintain its 

connection to the individual ACAP communities. While 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 483

the staff which administer the ACAP program is small, 

a formal link to and from each site is maintained via the 

“windows” approach. Windows are EC employees who 

sit on each community Board of Directors as ex-officio 

members. The windows provide a link between the 

groups and EC staff, as well as with other government 

departments. This has led to a high level of understanding and cooperative working relationships as most of 

the windows have been with their ACAP sites for fairly 

lengthy terms – some as long as 10 years. The windows 

provide a personal connection, which has established 

trust, credibility, and respect; all keys for a successful 

partnership (Environment Canada 2003).

ACAP’s Impact and Influence

Economic Impact

A recent study (Gardner Pinfold 2002) conducted 

for Environment Canada showed that having communities deliver ACAP programs costs much less than 

if the programs were delivered in the traditional way; 

through government offices and employees. Environment 

Canada’s total ACAP investment from 1997 to 2001 was 

about $6 M; based on the analysis conducted, it would 

have cost the federal government 12 times that amount to 

directly deliver a similar internally-run program. As well, 

hundreds of direct and spin-off jobs are created annually 

throughout Atlantic Canada through ACAP. In total, the 

economic impact (GDP) for this same period was about 

$22 M in direct and spin-off economic activity, which 

far exceeds EC’s original $6M investment.

ACAP organizations are able to have such a significant 

impact because of their ability to secure funds from local 

partners, industry and other government departments. 

The money is invested in local communities, and benefits those same communities. A good example of the 

economic returns that ACAP groups can help to generate 

is the astounding $4.6 million per annum that has been 

generated by the creation of a 63 km interprovincial linear 

park managed by the Société d’aménagement de la rivière 

Madawaska et du lac Témiscouata inc. (SARMLT) in 

partnership with Québec (Gardner Pinfold 2003).

Impact on Environment Canada 

Business Lines

Although the ACAP sites are independent organizations and basically conduct their own business, 

Environment Canada is a partner in each of the initiatives 

and thus participates in setting direction, identifying issues, and selecting the appropriate responses. Since the 

Environment Canada windows act as a two-way channel 

from EC to the ACAP sites and vice versa, they help the 

administrative staff in keeping the sites well informed 

on EC priorities and targeted results. In most cases, EC’s 

vision and goals for the environment align well with 

those of the ACAP organizations. As a result, over 1,000 

community projects delivered by the ACAP organizations 

since the program’s inception have been demonstrated 

to contribute directly or indirectly to the priorities, or 

‘business lines’ of the department, as follows in table 1

(adapted from Trites-Tolson 2002).

All of the ACAP sites conduct or participate in multipartner scientific projects that link directly or indirectly 

to EC priorities. Bluenose Coastal Action Foundation 

(BCAF)’s current project, summarized below, provides 

an example of the type of collaboration that is helping 

EC, the ACAP sites and others partners meet their own 

priorities and mandates.

The BCAF project concerns the provision of a prototype for the development, by Nova Scotian scientists 

from Dalhousie University, Environment Canada and 

the Department of Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO), 

of a new form of coastal monitoring and management 

system. Their goal is to use environmental observation 

systems and advanced numerical models to describe 

physical, chemical, and biological changes in the marine 

environment (BCAF 2004).

BCAF’s role in the much larger project is to aid in the 

development and validation of bio-optical data products 

for use in coastal observation and prediction systems 

in Lunenburg Bay, Nova Scotia, as well as to develop 

an extensive education and outreach program for the 

Town of Lunenburg. BCAF personnel are responsible 

for an extensive water sampling program that includes 

the collection and analysis of water samples as well as 

sea-truthing samples. The collected samples will be processed by BCAF staff, and analyzed for chlorophyll and 

absorption by particulate and dissolved materials. Other 

sampling measures include water clarity 

and optical properties. These are core measurements for optical observation systems 

that will be used in the larger project, along 

with remote sensing of ocean color, to 

monitor the state of coastal ecosystems in 

coming decades (BCAF 2004).

Table 1. Estimated ACAP contribution to Environment Canada Business Lines.

Business line Estimated percent contribution

Nature 44 percent

Clean Environment 33 percent

Management and Administration 12 percent

Weather and Environmental Prediction 11 percent
484 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

This long-term project will eventually offer local fishermen accurate real-time weather and water conditions, a 

sound scientific basis for detecting and describing weather 

and climate related influences on coastal ecosystems, and 

it will be extremely useful when determining the effects, 

both short and long term, of new sewage treatment measures implemented in the Town of Lunenburg in 2003. 

As for meeting EC’s priorities; not only has a coastal 

monitoring and management system been a primary area 

of development within its Atmospheric Science Division 

but, the ultimate goal of developing a modeling system 

for monitoring change in coastal environments is one 

of prime importance to the division and fits well within 

EC’s mandate of safety and security for the Canadian 

public. In addition, the project offers both EC and BCAF 

the chance to expand and create new partnerships within 

the scientific and international arena.

Influence on Policy and DecisionMakers

Within environment Canada

As already mentioned, the ACAP Science Linkages 

Initiative was launched to better link EC scientists with 

ACAP organizations. In her December 2003 report on 

the Initiative, the author noted that “Science Linkages 

fosters true partnerships between ACAP communities and 

EC scientists whose working relationships are built on 

mutual trust and respect” (Dech 2003). Understandably, 

this mutual trust and respect had to be earned over time 

and was not so apparent in the early days of the Initiative. 

For many of the EC scientists, especially when it came 

to monitoring activities, there were questions of quality 

control, reliability of data, duplicability of tests, etc. For 

the communities, there was some concern that the federal 

government was downloading its environmental responsibilities for clean up and remediation onto them.

Effective project results, the reconciliation of diverse 

interests and, recognition and praise from peers and other 

scientists have answered many of the questions raised for 

both the scientists and communities and today, ACAP’s 

success has a great influence on how many of us do business within EC Atlantic.

One of the most influential aspects of the ACAP program on EC scientists is the windows approach discussed 

in the introduction. EC scientists involved as windows 

have invariably reported that the experience has broadened their perspectives and given them, insights into the 

issues of importance to communities, the acquisition of 

skills around better ways to articulate science to citizens, 

and a better recognition of the interrelationships between 

the environment and social and economic conditions 

(Hildebrand 2002). It has also provided them with 

partners they would not normally have worked with, and 

given them access to funding not normally available to 

governments.

As for community-based monitoring; it took a couple 

of years for both sides to see its benefits and potential, but 

it is now common for EC scientists to actively seek out 

the help of the ACAP organizations. Not only does volunteer monitoring supplement EC’s efforts, in some cases 

it is the only data available for a given site. “Most EC 

scientists, says Hugh O’Neill of Environment Canada’s 

Environmental Quality Laboratories in Moncton, N.B., 

“have a high regard for the ACAP process... but, in retrospect, many scientists did not realize the capacity that 

some communities had access to, ranging from university 

and industrial scientists and their labs and dollars, to local 

bird watchers.” (O’Neill pers. comm. 2004).

All of the ACAP sites are involved in monitoring 

activities, some of them well established programs such 

as River Guardians, Swim Watch, and Air Watch. A 

number of the ACAP sites have also established their 

own labs to conduct fecal coliform bacterial analysis, 

etc. Although these labs have not been directly involved 

in regulatory-decision-making (in Canada, only data 

from “accredited” labs can be used in court cases and 

the cost of accreditation is just too high to be borne by 

most volunteer groups), EC and other organizations with 

enforcement mandates can and do launch their own investigation based on the sampling results obtained from 

the ACAP groups, as will be seen in the description of the 

St. John’s Harbour ACAP Inc. project (page 14), which 

was noted in the introduction.

Environment Canada is involved in a number of ongoing monitoring programs to which the ACAP sites are 

regular and long-term contributors. The response from 

the lead EC scientists to ACAP’s contributions have 

been invariably positive. Dr.Amar Menon, former head 

of EC’s Shellfish Monitoring Program in the Atlantic 

Region, is a scientist with a high regard for ACAP and 

community-based monitoring. Dr. Menon has been involved with numerous ACAP volunteers (and others) in 

water quality monitoring where shellfish are harvested at 

various coastal locations in Atlantic Canada. EC’s biologists provide the training and ACAP volunteers monitor 

and sample in local waters. Volunteers must follow very 

prescribed and detailed protocols and undergo regular 

audits (Menon pers.comm. 2004).

Environment Canada’s other responsibilities under the 

Canadian Shellfish Sanitation Program (CSSP) include 

the promotion of pollution prevention and remediation 

of shellfish growing areas. On this front too, the ACAP 

sites are able allies to the scientists. Several of the ACAP 

communities have begun remediation and shellfish restoration activities. In Charlotte County along the Bay of 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 485

Fundy in New Brunswick, ACAP groups (working with 

the Premier’s Clam Bed Action Committee) are active 

in pursuing the clean up of bacterial contamination in 

the area.

Remediation activities, throughout the Atlantic 

Provinces, have been successful in re-opening 2485 

hectares of shellfish closures for commercial shellfish 

harvesting. This is of extreme importance for the area, 

where 2000 Km2 of coastal waters (representing 33 percent of the classified shellfish growing area) have been 

closed to the harvesting of shellfish due to fecal bacterial 

pollution since the 1960s. Reopening of these areas for 

commercial harvesting could not have been done without 

the help of community-based monitoring and remediation 

projects. (Environment Canada 2004)

ACAP monitoring and data gathering capabilities are 

also valued by EC’s Environmental Emergencies Section 

(EES). EES has developed a geographic information 

system (GIS) for the Atlantic region to provide instant 

environmental data for decision-making responses to 

the thousands of spills involving oil or other hazardous 

substances that threaten the coastal zone resources of 

the region. The need to update and add to the mapping 

of more than 35,000 km of shoreline is a constant one 

and EC benefits greatly from the willingness of ACAP 

organizations to collaborate in collecting new information (Laflamme pers.comm. 2004).

The first such collaboration was between EC and the 

St. Croix Estuary Project, Inc. (SCEP). In 2001 to 2002, 

SCEP collaborated with EC, through a Science Linkages 

project, in collecting data from the Passamaquoddy Bay 

area which helped in the development of a local community contingency plan for oil spill response. SCEP is unique 

from other ACAP sites in that it is located on an international river and represents the interests of both Canadian 

and American residents of the St. Croix Valley.

A similar collaboration is currently being developed 

between Environment Canada and the Miramichi River 

Environmental Assessment Committee (MREAC). 

Other partners include the Department of Fisheries and 

Oceans Canada (DFO) and a variety of provincial and 

municipal government organizations whose cooperation 

will give MREAC and EC access to some of the local 

information that is often the hardest to obtain. Completed 

web-accessible map layers (of endangered species, nesting sites, spawning areas, valuable lobster and oyster 

habitats, coastal marshlands, beaches, municipal and 

other discharge zones etc. for the Miramichi coastal zone 

and estuary) will prove invaluable to the Environmental 

Emergencies Section, to local emergency response units 

and to MREAC which has become a centre where community stakeholders can access information for their own 

uses (MREAC 2004).

Local and regional

Community-led, multi stakeholder organizations like 

the ACAP sites are inclusive and strive to include people 

who represent a cross-section of their individual communities including, citizens, business, industry, academia, 

non-government organizations, and various levels of 

government. ACAP’s biggest success is probably the use 

and acceptance of the multi-stakeholder and communitybased processes, which have shown that even established 

adversaries can work together when common interests 

are evident. The program has produced a dynamic network of relationships, joint ventures and other strategic 

alliances, with ACAP organizations serving as effective 

facilitators and brokers. The story which follows, of the 

St. John’s Harbour ACAP Inc.’s effort to get the issue 

of sewage treatment on the political agenda, illustrates 

the effectiveness of understanding the players, forming 

strategic alliances, and doing good science.

Long before the Government of Canada made the 

financial commitment announcement to the construction 

of a sewage treatment plant for St. John’s Harbour; the 

ACAP organization gathered data on the need for municipal wastewater treatment, conducted related monitoring 

projects, sought public consensus and sought to convince 

the local municipalities, the provincial, and the federal 

government that treatment was essential.

By 1997, St. John’s Harbour ACAP had acquired the 

support of three local municipalities for conducting an 

investigation into the best way to handle the sewage 

problems in the local harbours. However, they needed 

to convince municipal officials that it would take more 

than a pipe extension to tackle the problem. Results 

of community-led bacterial monitoring did the trick 

and by 1999, not only were the municipalities on-side, 

the provincial government also joined with St. John’s 

Harbour ACAP and the communities in clamoring for 

treatment. The federal government, however, was still 

not convinced that treatment was necessary so ACAP St. 

John’s increased its bacterial monitoring studies through 

a Science Linkages project.

They monitored various fish and shellfish from 2001to 

2002, with the help of EC’s Moncton lab and DFO, to 

determine if fish found in the Harbour proper were sufficiently contaminated to draw regulatory attention. This 

was followed by monitoring for chemical contamination of fish and shellfish (metals, mercury, pesticides, 

PAHs, PCBs, and dioxins were analyzed in lobster and 

flounder), some microbiological studies were also carried-out (at Memorial University) in the Harbour and 

nearby environment.

The monitoring results led to DFO closing shellfish and fish harvesting in the Bay (Baird pers.comm. 
486 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

2004). This was a first in Canada – DFO had never 

before accepted community monitoring results as the 

basis for looking into harvesting closures. DFO’s own 

monitoring confirmed the ACAP organization’s results 

and they declared that sewage discharges were having 

an impact on human health. The federal government 

came “on board” and tri-level government funding was 

announced in November 2002. The contract for this 

project was awarded to Municipal Construction Limited 

in November 2003.

According to Diana Baird of St. John’s Harbour ACAP 

“One of the problems with government doing the monitoring in these cases is that the data tends to get shelved“, 

“government officials don’t seem to want to approach the 

media with negative results whereas community groups 

do.” So, according to Ms. Baird, community groups are 

better at getting information to the public and this leads 

to greater progress – “you can’t expect communities to 

get involved (or to support something) or to change their 

ways, if they don’t have the information.” (Baird pers.

comm. 2004).

The discharge of raw or partially treated municipal 

sewage into rivers, estuaries and harbours is one of the 

most frequently raised issues by the ACAP organizations 

(and many other Atlantic community groups) and the 

lessons learned by the St. John’s group were of value to 

all and are, therefore, part of its success.

In recapping the more than eight years of struggle 

to get sewage treatment for the St. John Harbour area, 

Diana Baird had this to say about the ACAP process: “it 

is really the collaboration that has the value – getting all 

that knowledge and participation around the table was a 

new way of doing things...the first year was very much 

a feeling process, we had to establish trust... Thanks to 

Environment Canada, people from all sectors sat around 

the table to work things out...DFO has now become 

more open to us...And it has opened our links to local 

universities, to labs...we have credibility and value...We 

now get more and more calls from all over (EC, DFO, 

municipalities, etc.) for information about the Bay...scientist are coming to us.” (Baird pers.comm. 2004).

Extending the Reach of ACAP

ACAP groups not only network individually but also 

increasingly join-together in multi-site partnerships that 

have regional and national impacts. For instance, when 

scientists from Environment Canada’s National Water 

Research Institute (NWRI), Canada’s largest freshwater research facility, proposed a national strategy for 

monitoring and assessment of aquatic biodiversity in 

Canadian inland waters, one of the goals was to develop 

a national, volunteer-based, invertebrate stream biomonitoring network.

ACAP sites were the primary target for network participants in the Atlantic region. In fact, in 2002, out of 

17 community sites involved in the Atlantic Network, 

10 were ACAP sites. It was recognized that they were 

already well established, very successful and had a history of working well together. In a letter to the ACAP 

science Linkages co-ordinator, Dr. Trefor B. Reynoldson, 

then leading the Atlantic portion of the program, noted 

that “The Institute [NWRI] sees the Science Linkages 

program as an important step in developing a Canadian 

Aquatic Bio-monitoring Program (CABIN)” (Reynoldson 

2002). Four of the ACAP sites originally involved in the 

Atlantic Network have now banded-together, under the 

leadership of NWRI scientists and Acadia University, to 

adapt and transfer some of the bio-monitoring techniques 

they have learned in inland waters to estuarine waters.

The ACAP organization is “building on success’ in 

other ways. For instance, in addition to geographical 

expansion (into Labrador) and networking together to 

increase their collective strength, the ACAP sites are 

adopting and/or mentoring adjacent watersheds and 

neighbouring coastal areas. The ACAP approach is 

further evident in a number of larger Atlantic Region 

multi-stakeholder coalitions (some with three or four 

ACAP groups in the membership) organized around 

larger regional ecosystems (for example, the Gulf of 

Maine Council, the Bay of Fundy Ecosystem Partnership 

and, the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Coalition on 

Sustainability). ACAP’s influence can even be felt in 

inter-departmental and inter-governmental collaborations (working towards improving government program 

service delivery to communities) such as the Nova 

Scotia Sustainable Communities Initiatives and the 

Collaborative Environmental Planning Initiative for the 

Bras d’Or Lake in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia. These and 

other organizations help to ensure that the ACAP pillars 

of sustainability, multi-stakeholder partnerships, and 

community empowerment will continue to support the 

environmental health of Atlantic Canadian communities 

for generations to come.

Conclusion

Although the ACAP sites may differ somewhat in 

character and priorities, there are commonalities inherent 

in the ACAP process itself, many of which have evolved 

over time, and come to be thought of as “best practices.” 

These include the following:

Recognizing that communities have their own vision 

of sustainability.

Recognizing that governments are part of communities.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 487

Using a consensus model for decision-making rather 

than a confrontational approach.

Seeking a balance between environmental, social, and 

economic considerations.

Developing a detailed framework (the CEMP) for 

action based on community vision - this lets the communities identify education, monitoring, remediation 

and other needs through the identification of local 

priorities.

Using knowledge generation activities to produce a 

common perspective and help inform decision-making.

Annual funding for individual site offices and coordinator.

“Core” funding for projects.

ACAP community leveraging of funds and in kind 

resources.

Building scientific capacity within communities 

through the provision of advice and technical support 

as well as training on proper sampling and research 

techniques.

Reducing “red tape, and facilitating expertise and 

information exchange (for example, through “windows”).

Measuring and demonstrating progress in research 

sustainability goals.

Training and engaging local people (especially youth) 

to carry out monitoring and/or remediation.

Hands on involvement among participants develops 

rapport, trust and new relationships.

Using both local knowledge and traditional science.

Sharing ownership of information to enhance confidence in its quality and increase its application, as 

well as to help in resolving disputes and avoiding 

conflicts.

Feed back from decision-makers is essential.

In conclusion, one of the most important contributions 

of community-based environment management, such 

as that provided by the ACAP program, is the ability of 

the communities involved to bring to light potential and 

existing environmental, social and economic problems 

to decision-makers at all levels and in all sectors. That 

the participating community organizations can also be 

full partners in finding and helping to implement possible 

solutions that are scientifically defensible, economically 

advantageous, socially acceptable, and environmentally 

•

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•

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sound is evidenced by the ACAP experiences described 

in this paper.

References

Bluenose Atlantic Coastal Action Foundation (BACAF) 

Science Linkages Project Proposal 2004 to 2005.

Dech, S. 2003. ACAP’s Science Linkages Initiative: A Sound 

Investment in Science & Community 1997 to 2002. 

Unpublished Report prepared for Environment CanadaAtlantic Region, Dartmouth, N.S. 13p.

Environment Canada. 2003. The Atlantic Coastal Action 

Program (ACAP) – Celebrating the Successes of Long-term 

Community Partnerships. Her Majesty the Queen in Right 

of Canada. Catalogue no. En4-31/2003E. ISBN 34472-3. 

16 p. Available from: http://atlantic-web1.ns.ec.gc.ca/community/acap/ - accessed August 08, 2004.

Environment Canada. 2004. Detailed information on the 

Canadian Shellfish Sanitation Program. Available from: 

http://www.atl.ec.gc.ca/epb/sfish/sfish.html/ - accessed 

August 18, 2004

Gardner Pinfold Consulting Economists Limited. 2002. An 

Evaluation of the Atlantic Coastal Action Program (ACAP): 

Economic Impact and Return on Investment. Report 

prepared for Environment Canada. July. 23 p.

Hildebrand, L. 2002. Atlantic Coastal Action Program 

Presentation to Environment Canada Management Council. 

Montreal, Quebec., May 8.

Laflamme, A. 2004. Environmental Emergencies Officer and 

Environmental Emergencies Mapping Program Coordinator, 

Environmental Protection Branch, Environment Canada, 

Dartmouth, Nova Scotia., personal communication, August 

10.

Menon, A. 2004. Retired Head of Shellfish Section, 

Toxics Management, Environmental Protection Branch, 

Environment Canada, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, personal 

communication, August 5.

Miramichi River Environmental Assessment Committee 

(MREAC). 2004. Science Linkages Project Proposal 2004 

to 2005. Report submitted to Environment Canada.

O’Neill, H. 2004. Acting Manager, Environmental Quality 

Laboratories, Environment Canada - Atlantic Region, 

P.O. Box 23005, Moncton, N.B., personal communication 

August 03.

Reynoldson, T. B. 2003. Retired Chief, Ecosystem Management 

and Assessment Project, Environment Canada, National 

Water Research Institute, Acadia Centre for Estuarine 

Research, Acadia University, Wolfville, N.S. B0P 1X0. 

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488 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Whether consciously or unconsciously community 

members individually and collectively make trade-offs 

among the priorities of economic, social and environment well-being. Community members would agree, 

however, that the choices made should not compromise 

the provision of our most basic needs such as clean air 

and water for life support and food for sustenance. Nor do 

community members want to eliminate the earth’s natural 

biodiversity and the habitat needed to sustain it. In other 

words there are ideals held by community members that 

suggest communities want to act sustainably. In order to 

know if a community is sustainable, information must 

be collected about the state of the ecosystem; social, 

economic, and environmental conditions. Monitoring the 

ecosystem is therefore a core activity, fundamental to a 

community that strives to function sustainably.

Across Canada a variety of monitoring projects have 

achieved positive results for communities working 

towards sustainability. Community Based Monitoring 

(CBM) has shown that it is capable of gathering relevant 

information in a timely fashion to Inform Community 

Decisions (ICD). Community Based Monitoring 

Informing Community Decisions (CBM-ICD) is defined 

as a process where concerned citizens, government 

agencies, industry, academia, community groups and 

local institutions engage in a collaborative community 

effort to monitor, track and respond to locally identified issues (EMAN CO and CNF 2003). CBM-ICD 

activities include partnership development, consultation 

and outreach, visioning, capacity building, monitoring 

of an environmental issue or concern, and linking gathered information to local decision-making that supports 

sustainability and adaptive management.

CBM-ICD Success

When community members take an active role in 

ecosystem monitoring multiple benefits are derived for 

the whole community. There is an increased awareness 

and understanding of human-environment interactions 

among those who participate in monitoring, such as 

school children, teachers, and citizen groups and to those 

who provide support such as researchers, corporations 

and government scientists. In addition, this knowledge is 

shared with a wider community when CBM practitioners 

effectively communicate the results of monitoring to others. The result is informed decision making and adaptive 

management leading to positive changes in the way we 

manage human activities in the environment.

Local data derived from CBM-ICD initiatives can 

also provide cost effective and meaningful data to assist 

in regional and national monitoring programs, thereby 

helping to establish baselines and provide early warning of larger trends that merit further investigation. In 

essence, CBM-ICD extends the geographic reach of existing monitoring programs and provides data gathering 

at a much finer scale. Our knowledge of the impact of 

human actions on the environment is greatly expanded 

Engaging Industry in Community Decision Making for a 

Sustainable Future

Brent Tegler, Applied Ecologist & Partner, North-South Environmental Inc., Campbellville, 

ON, Canada L0P 1B0

Abstract—Community based monitoring (CBM) is often directed at examining significant environmental impacts arising from the activities of industry. When industry is 

included as one of the active partners or stakeholders participating in CBM the results 

of monitoring are shared and there is a good opportunity to inform decision makers 

in ways that lead to positive outcomes. Too often, however, there is an antagonistic 

relationship between those undertaking environmental monitoring and those managing industry. CBM provides an alternative by utilizing an inclusive process that ensures 

communication with all stakeholders from the outset of monitoring initiatives. In this 

way the public, government and industry participate as a team sharing knowledge, resources and concerns to develop meaningful solutions to shared problems. The success 

of CBM engaging industry in community decision making will be discussed to show the 

ingredients of success based on current examples within Canada.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 489

because CMB-ICD provides monitoring data collected 

by citizens that look at creeks, ponds, bays, wetlands, 

parks, woodlots, fields and backyards in local and rural 

neighbourhoods.

CBM-ICD engages a community in sustainability 

programs that promote progress towards a common 

vision of sustainability by providing opportunities for 

dialogue between citizens, government, and industry. 

Collaboration, a key characteristic of CBM-ICD, increases communication among all stakeholders allowing 

people to more directly benefit from the knowledge and 

assistance of universities, governments, and industry. 

In return CBM-ICD provides an understanding of local 

issues and concerns about the ecosystem and communicates this information to others, including fellow citizens 

and decision makers in government and industry.

CBM-ICD Inclusiveness

Sustainability is a process that engages people through 

programs that make them aware of social, economic, 

and ecological interconnections and responsibilities. 

The sustainability process works best when individually 

and collectively people make decisions and take actions 

based on good information and clear choices. While 

science is an important contributor of good information 

to the sustainability process, the process also relies on 

communication mechanisms that ensure human values 

are considered, tradeoffs are discussed and future options kept open.

CBM-ICD initiatives can and should involve local 

industry. Industry forms an integral part of communities 

through direct and indirect employment, infrastructure 

development and through financial contributions to the 

local tax base and to non-government and/or non-profit 

organizations that work towards better communities. In 

addition to the latter social and economic effects, industry can also significantly affect the environment within 

a community. The predominant public view is industry 

affects the environment in negative ways. Industry can 

and does, however, affect the environment in positive 

ways by reducing or eliminating current negative effects 

or by restoring an environment impacted by past effects. 

While industry must ultimately have an impact on the 

environment, insufficient effort is made by local communities to monitor and understand these impacts in a 

way that could lead to more informed choices.

Unfortunately because the role of industry is often 

crucial to the social and economic well-being of a community, there is often reluctance by the community to 

work with industry due to a fear that exposure of industry’s shortcomings may lead to the termination of benefits 

that are seen to sustain the livelihood of a community. In 

addition there is a culture of fear within industry when 

it comes to meaningful consultation with the public 

regarding performance. In most cases government is 

the go-between; establishing and enforcing guidelines, 

standards, and requirements that must be met by industry in the interest of the public good. Consequently the 

public direct their concerns to government, not industry, 

and industry works to comply with existing government 

regulations that may not reflect the concerns of the local 

community.

When industry works directly with the community in 

a CBM-ICD initiative new opportunities to act sustainably are created. Currently, however, there are too few 

examples of public-industry partnerships in monitoring. 

It is hoped that by examining the components of success 

that characterize CBM-ICD, monitoring can be seen as a 

mechanism to foster greater environmental responsibility 

among all members of a community including industry 

while providing a cost-effective mechanism to effect 

change in the stewardship and protection of the environment by government, industry and the general public.

CBM-ICD Partnerships and 

Networking

CBM-ICD is a collaborative initiative involving a 

wide variety of stakeholders in a variety of capacities. 

CBM-ICD creates forums that allow stakeholders to 

share a wide range of interests, abilities, knowledge, and 

concerns. Stakeholders in CBM-ICD include various 

levels of government; municipal, provincial, federal; 

education institutions including primary schools to 

universities and colleges; industry and corporations; 

non-government organizations; and individuals of the 

general public. Stakeholders can be involved in some or 

all of the following activities: the sharing of knowledge 

in the methods of data gathering, analysis and reporting; 

direct participation in data gathering; assistance in data 

analysis and reporting financial and in-kind support; 

the sharing of related data relevant to the community; 

and the bringing forward of issues of concern and local 

knowledge.

The activities of communities in monitoring and influencing local decision making will often involve new 

frontiers for all involved. In order to make the best use 

of the available information and the new information 

obtained, neighbouring communities will ultimately 

corroborate and/or compare approaches to monitoring, 

monitoring methods, funding sources, most importantly 

data, and the results of analyses. Networking is therefore 
490 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

an obvious tool that CBM groups use to facilitate shared 

learning and data comparison. One of the most valuable 

outcomes of networking is shared best practices. For 

example, while the public may have legitimate questions about the environment and wish to participate in 

environmental monitoring, there is often a lack of 

understanding of the methods to be used to collect 

meaningful data. A network can bring forward and share 

the experience that has been applied to similar questions 

elsewhere.

Capacity Building

CBM-ICD bridges the gap between society and the 

environment by engaging communities in processes that 

define what sustainability means locally and tracks progress through ecosystem monitoring to produce relevant, 

timely information that informs decision making. Citizen 

science does not demand that a person is an ecologist 

or environmental scientist. Individuals and groups may 

become knowledgeable of complex issues through a 

desire to know. Experience has shown that the needs of 

ecosystem monitoring can be accomplished with minimal 

training; relying more on commitment than specialized 

knowledge.

The key components of CBM-ICD required to successfully engage communities in programs that examine 

the relationship between human activities and the state 

of the environment can be summarized as follows (North 

South Environmental Inc. 2004):

Getting Started—organizing meetings, initiating 

partnerships, engaging stakeholders

Citizen-Science Monitoring Protocols—simple 

methods for scientific measurement

Funding—sources and application procedures, and 

long-term stability

Data Analysis and Management—analysis methods, 

quality control, and data storage

Communication—presenting results to educate communities and influence decision makers

Collaboration—sharing methods, results (data), and 

adaptive management responses

Capacity Building—training/technical assistance to 

achieve meaningful results.

Industry has significant abilities that can assist in the 

capacity building of CBM-ICD citizen science and citizens can have significant experience and local knowledge 

than can be volunteered to industry. Each should be stakeholders in the process. Community members may have 

concerns about what should be monitored and industry 

may assist in how to conduct monitoring. Direct funding for monitoring may come from industry and these 

may lead to matched funds from government or other 

stakeholders. Industry can participate in data analysis 

and management, which will assist in the communication of results to those within industry that can effect 

positive change. In all of the components of CBM-ICD, 

industry has the ability to provide the technical advice, 

training, and support needed as part of community capacity building.

Link to Decision Making

Sustainable ecosystem management is not an endpoint; it is a process that explores social, economic, and 

ecological interactions (in other words whole ecosystems) to know the implications of human actions. When 

society is well informed of the state of the ecosystem 

through monitoring, decision makers can recognize the 

tradeoffs required to balance ecosystem needs (social, 

economic, ecological). In essence, a sustainable society 

makes informed choices about the kind of environment in 

which they choose to live. Citizen science as conducted 

in CBM-ICD contributes to this process through citizen 

engagement, the acquisition of information on ecosystem 

condition, reporting to decision makers and adaptation 

through changes in policies and the implementation of 

actions that lead to an improved ecosystem condition.

Industry must be seen as a full participant in sustainable development, embracing an emerging vision 

of whole ecosystem adaptive management linking our 

knowledge of ecological trends and conditions to human 

economic and social activities. CBM-ICD embodies 

these principles through collaboration with all members 

of the community, including industry, in inter-disciplinary data gathering and analysis. The results of monitoring 

are communicated to key decision-makers so that they 

are better informed and can respond to local knowledge 

about the relationships between social, economic, and 

ecological issues and needs.

Conclusion

There are multiple benefits of CBM-ICD including: 

an improved ability to report on status and trends at local, regional and national scales; building a community 

that has the capacity to understand and use ecological 

information; the establishment of improved partnerships 

and networks among the community; an increase in 

knowledge about the environment that is in turn distributed among society; increased environmental awareness 

within a community leading to a change in the day-to-day 

behaviour of individuals leading to reduced impacts on 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 491

the environment; increased environmental awareness 

and concern among citizens of a community leading to 

an increased voice informing policy decision makers; 

citizens gain a better understanding of the economic 

costs of environmental protection; citizens provide labour 

for environmental monitoring and for the completion of 

restoration projects that effect environmental change; 

citizens within the community that have excellent environmental knowledge and experience, transfer and apply 

their expertise at little or no cost; and citizens seek and 

raise funds for environmental programs.

Industry can be a full participant in CBM-ICD initiatives, contributing to an increased understanding of 

ecosystem condition, a more engaged and informed 

society and the creation of communities that are more 

likely to be sustainable.

References

Ecological Monitoring and Assessment Network Coordinating 

Office (EMAN CO) and Canadian Nature Federation 

(CNF). 2003. Improving Local Decision-Making through 

Community Based Monitoring: Toward a Canadian 

Community Monitoring Network. ISBN 0-662-33894-4. 

22 p.

North South Environmental Inc. 2004. Enhancing Community 

Based Monitoring in Canada: The role of Environment 

Canada. Campbellville, ON: Report prepared for the EMAN 

Coordinating Office, Environment Canada. 30 p.
492 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Over the last two decades, the entire approach to 

traditional resource management has been re-examined 

to strengthen efficiency and long term outcomes in accordance with principles of sustainable development. As 

early as 1982, the concept of sustainable management was 

developed. Ten years later, Agenda 21, approved at the 

Rio Conference, affirmed that sustainable development 

required a new management approach: an “integrated 

policy and decision making process, including all involved sectors, to promote compatibility and a balance 

of uses” (Bruntland 1987), that was to be practical and 

collaborative in its approach. This means that ensuring 

sustainability requires a process for developing the larger 

and longer term vision of how resources and ecosystems 

can be sustainably managed.

Talking about sustainability and ecosystems can be 

complex and often confusing, especially for the general 

public. In this paper, ecosystem can be defined as an 

astonishing assortment of species that interact and are 

interdependent in many ways and in which humans are 

a component like any other species (Vasseur and others 

2002a). This leads to the understanding that management 

does not only involve general ecosystem components 

but also human activities and the decision making 

process that follows. This process, to be successfully 

implemented, should be inclusive as natural resources 

and habitats are integral components of any healthy or 

sustainable ecosystem along with the human communities (Canadian Round Tables 1993). Although ecosystem 

management issues can have global, regional or transboundary impacts, most activities need to be focused at 

the sub-regional and community level to be effective. The 

Science, Communities, and Decision Making: How Can 

We Learn to Dance with Many Partners?

Liette Vasseur, Associate Vice president – Research/Vice Rectrice Adjointe à la Recherche, 

Laurentian University/Université Laurentienne, Sudbury (Ontario) Canada P3E 2C6

Abstract—Ecosystem management, also called integrated management can be defined 

as integrated careful and skilful use, development, and protection of ecosystems using 

ecological, economic, social and managerial principles to sustain ecosystem integrity and desired conditions, uses, products, values, and services over the long term. 

Although ecosystem or conservation management issues can have global, regional or 

trans-boundary impacts, most activities need to be focused at the sub-regional and 

community level to be effective. The basic concept is that the community is the most 

efficient unit for change in conservation management. The main challenge is to first 

understand these concepts and then acquire the knowledge to sustain, use, and protect 

natural ecosystems in order to reach a more integrated ecological, economic, and social 

development. In addition, community involvement can be limited because of their level 

of education, capacity building, and potential for actions. Communities that have data 

and the tools usually feel more empowered and tend to be able to deal with issues in a 

more effective manner than in communities where capacity and tools are non-existent. 

Monitoring is certainly one of the greatest steps whereby communities feel that they 

can contribute, learn, and enhance awareness on very specific issues. This is where 

it is important to develop our science in assessing sustainability in our communities. 

Such capacity building can help communities increase sustainability and thus influence 

decision making for the benefit of all members. Partnership building between public, 

academic, private and community constituencies can help improve knowledge and 

develop decision making tools for greater sustainability. Through a regional example of 

the southern Gulf of St Lawrence, the discussion will include lessons learned and the 

challenges that face communities, decision makers, private and academic sectors in 

promoting sustainability and the possible actions that can be taken to improve awareness and decision making.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 493

basic concept is that the community is the most efficient 

unit for change in conservation management. The main 

challenge is to first understand these concepts and then 

acquire the knowledge to sustain, use and protect natural 

ecosystems in order to reach more integrated ecological, 

economic, and social development. This knowledge must 

be promoted by professionals and decision-makers but 

also most importantly by the youth, women and men who 

have the most at stake (Vasseur and Hart 2002).

A regional or community approach can therefore 

be promoted as a way to reach as many stakeholders 

as possible and thus improve decision making efficiency and social acceptability. This paper examines 

the components of a model for ecosystem management 

of regional constituency that has as its main objective 

developing sustainability through public participation, 

education, communication, science and monitoring. The 

example described here represents one of the few groups 

established in Canada that focuses on sustainability and 

ecosystem management and attempts to improve efficiency and environmentally sound decision making at 

the regional level.

A Model for Sustainability 

and Ecosystem Management: 

Integrated Approach

In this model, sustainable/ecosystem management 

can be defined as the “integrated careful and skilful use, 

development and protection of ecosystems using ecological, economic, social and managerial principles to 

sustain ecosystem integrity and desired conditions, uses, 

products, values, and services related to all development 

over the long term” (Vasseur and Hart 2002, p. 42). Such 

management, which is based on sustainable development 

principles, includes different components that allow for 

flexibility, transparency and cooperation at all steps of 

the process, from the observation of an issue and decision 

making to the implementation of solutions and monitoring. The most important aspect of this system is that it 

is dynamic and allows conditions to evolve; therefore it 

has to be adaptive. This is a process balancing protection/maintenance and sustainable use of resources and 

the environment (including humans) and encompasses 

all interdisciplinary aspects of management, development, and decision making. For each issue tackled by the 

region or the community, all elements of the ecosystem, 

not only the human (and often economic) components 

should be considered. Under this framework, the goals of 

community actions towards sustainability should satisfy 

several criteria as proposed by Hardi and Zdan (1997) 

and Slocombe (1998) (table 1). Although the complexity of ecosystems should be taken into account in any 

regional action plan, it is essential that the plan itself be 

simple and understood by all stakeholders in order to be 

successfully implemented. In several cases, strategies are 

defined and developed without a good appreciation of all 

the components and their interconnections and this can 

lead to reduced efficiency or acceptability of the solutions 

(Vasseur and Hart 2002). It is essential to remind decision 

makers and all stakeholders for that matter that without 

ecosystem services and functions, human demands and 

health cannot be fulfilled.

There are several levels of public participation in the 

decision process (Hance and others 1990). Certain types 

of public consultation merely show the environmentally 

sound intentions of the policy makers, but they do not 

usually consider public concerns in a meaningful way. 

At another level, the decision makers have to consult the 

population each time a problem occurs. In this case, the 

population has to vote on an issue after having received 

the proper information and all the alternatives available 

to resolve the problem. This type of public participation is 

more likely to be costly and may be a very slow process. 

It is especially not adequate for solving an immediate 

problem. The main challenge is in defining an approach 

in which decision making and sustainable actions are 

well balanced. In addition, it is essential to define what 

the communities’ stake is. In this paper, communities are 

defined as a group of people sharing a geographic context 

and interest in managing an environmental issue. Their 

involvement should lead towards consensus and social 

acceptability. The community can be small or large in 

size, number, or interests.

Table 1. Some criteria to achieve sustainability in communities 

upon which the SGSL-Coalition has been based.

1. Imply and reflect a clear vision and specific goals 

achievable on a yearly basis.

2. Reflect “higher” values and ethical principles and rules, 

leading to equity and respect.

3. Reflect a wide range of interests and groups existing in 

the region (inclusiveness).

4. Involve actors, stakeholders and public (high level of 

participation).

5. Accept and recognize that ecosystems are complex and 

dynamic (realistic approach).

6. Synthesize a wide range of information and knowledge 

from ecological to socio-economic (interdisciplinary 

approach) leading to knowledge and capacity building.

7. Be applicable to a wide range of ecosystem types and 

conditions.

8. Be open and transparent in the approach to enhance 

communication and consensus building.

9. Be inherently tentative and evolving as conditions and 

knowledge change (adaptive approach).
494 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

In the present paper, I describe an approach that 

was used and implemented in the Southern Gulf of 

St. Lawrence region in order to improve sustainability through inclusiveness, partnership and as an aid in 

decision making considering that all stakeholders can 

contribute to the building of regional sustainability. It can 

be shown that a region is the main unit for change when 

the components of this ecosystem, although larger in 

scale, are highly interconnected and therefore the actions 

of some people can affect the sustainability of others.

A Regional Example: The 

SGSL-Coalition

The coastal zone of the Southern Gulf of St. 

Lawrence, with its salt marshes, dunes and beaches, estuaries and forests, is an important ecological, economic, 

and social region of North America. It provides critical 

spawning, feeding and nursery habitats for numerous 

species of organisms. Communities in the region depend 

on its resources for income, recreational opportunities, 

and their quality of life. Over the years, the sustainability of this region has been threatened by several 

agents including overexploitation of natural resources, 

coastal ecosystem degradation, and pollution. In order 

to better integrate the concerns of all stakeholders in the 

region, through consultations and discussions involving different groups, the Southern Gulf of St Lawrence 

Coalition on Sustainability was formally created in 

November 1999. This multi-stakeholder regional body 

draws representation and membership from those portions of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Prince Edward 

Island and Quebec that are part of the Southern Gulf 

of St. Lawrence ecosystem. Its vision is a future in 

which the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystem is 

environmentally, economically and socially sustainable 

(SGSL-Coalition 2004).

Sustainability requires integrating three key elements: 

ecological, economic, and social aspects. It also implies 

respecting cultural values, a topic of great interest in 

this region where French Acadians, First Nations people 

and English Canadians live together. The Coalition 

establishes a mechanism for enhancing horizontal communication among partners, which allows for the sharing 

of knowledge and attaining consensus. No one partner 

has the resources to implement a meaningful sustainability strategy for the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, but 

the Coalition allows the pooling of human resources for a 

meaningful and long-term impact on the sustainability of 

the region. The mission of the Coalition is to promote the 

long-term sustainability of its ecosystem and this is accomplished by developing a shared and strategic Action 

Plan that aims to provide the tools required to address 

issues of common concern (SGSL-Coalition 2004).

One of the biggest challenges to achieving an integrated planning process is to develop effective governance 

structures for sustainable development. This means 

adopting forums and processes that can foster open dialogue between governments, communities, and citizens 

(Vasseur and others 2002b). The Coalition represents one 

of the first official governance mechanisms established in 

Atlantic Canada to develop such an integrated planning 

process. This process is currently supported by and made 

up of diverse yet dedicated groups of individuals and representatives of non-government and community-based 

organizations, businesses and industries, academics, First 

Nations and municipal, provincial and federal agencies 

(SGSL-Coalition 2004).

Partnership with the Coalition: 

Challenges and Solutions?

The Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Coalition on 

Sustainability is first and foremost a forum of partners 

who share a common vision towards defining solutions 

to ensure the sustainability of the region. The SGSLCoalition is a door for cooperation and partnership 

between various groups and individuals and for implementing concrete actions. Being a voluntary body with 

limited resources, the Coalition tries to organize and/or 

facilitate meetings, workshops, forums, or task forces 

on topics that are of common interest for all of the 

stakeholders.

Considering that the community should be involved in 

some way in each stage of the process, communication 

and information sharing remains one of the challenges 

for regional organisations such as the SGSL-Coalition. 

The main hurdle to overcome in this situation is the 

recognition of the responsibilities of the various jurisdictions that make up the Coalition. For example, it is 

essential that government agencies recognize that they 

cannot achieve their departmental objectives by acting 

alone. Recognition of each other’s roles within the regional community is also required in order to increase the 

effectiveness of environmental protection and conservation measures, to maximize monitoring and compliance 

activities and to realize sustainable development potential. Over the years, the SGSL-Coalition has struggled 

mainly in the area of industry involvement. It has been 

a perception from the industry side that if they open up 

to discussions and public participation they could face 

increased problems and demands and delays in their actions (Shepherd and Bowler 1997). However, under ideal 

circumstances the participation of all stakeholders can 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 495

promote sustainable development for all constituencies 

through recommending priority strategies, policies, and 

regulations to government agencies and monitoring the 

progress of implementing them. Industries can profit 

from the local knowledge of the communities and understand the limitations and vulnerability of the system 

(Sheate 1991, Bisset 2000). Additionally, any type of 

governmental or corporate actions that might have impacts on the environment and therefore the sustainability 

of a region should be monitored in order to make sure that 

the solutions implemented are adequate and if not, new 

strategies can be implemented to improve effectiveness. 

In projects with limited or missing monitoring of the 

outcomes and the surrounding environmental conditions, 

the main danger coming from the implementation of a 

strategy is the lack of adaptive response to emerging or 

abrupt changes.

Academic institutions including universities, colleges, 

and schools also have a great role to play in this type of 

ecosystem regional management program. The Coalition 

provides universities and colleges with the opportunity to 

develop and apply sustainability concepts to a wide range 

of situations and different conditions. It is an open door 

to explore new methods for achieving sustainable results 

and a way to link research to real life situations (SGSLCoalition 2004). Since 1999, at least five academic 

institutions from the region have been involved in this 

process. This number could increase but some limitations 

have yet to be overcome to improve their involvement 

such as limited resources and time allocation. Solutions 

can be found to improve levels of participation from 

academia. For example, the SGSL-Coalition created a 

Sustainability Scholarship in 2003 and it is given annually to a graduate student who has undertaken research 

in the southern Gulf of Saint Lawrence on issues of priority for the Coalition’s members. This strategy has two 

goals: improving the involvement of researchers in the 

Coalition and also communicating the research results 

that are acquired by scientists in the region. It has been 

shown in the past that scientific information should also 

be available to members of the Coalition who need the 

information for decision making. The sustainability of 

the scholarship and other actions initiated by members 

of the Coalition will remain fragile unless in the long 

term, endowment instead of annual governmental funding can be secured.

Academic institutions have also played an important 

role in the sustainability of the organisation. For example, 

one of the universities has been able to host the offices of 

the Coalition. This has helped reduce the cost of office 

overheads. Other organisations might be able to play 

this role however this is often highly limited especially 

for NGOs that already have limited funding to support 

their own work. In addition, the question of neutrality 

and location always come up in discussions when such an 

organisation is created. Using the university has helped 

reduce neutrality concerns as it is not taking position in 

debates. Spatially, the Coalition is located in Moncton 

as it is relatively central to the region served by the 

SGSL-Coalition.

In-kind contributions in an organisation like the 

Coalition are crucial for its survival. Involving youth in 

this type of organisation is relatively difficult although 

they are the leaders of tomorrow (Vasseur and others 

2002b). However, their involvement might become 

essential as it is frequently reported that volunteer burnout is increasing. This has been seen in many rural or 

small communities and especially in regions like the 

Maritimes where volunteering has been a way of life 

for generations.

Towards Sustainability 

Through Community 

Participation: Lessons Learned 

From the SGSL-Coalition

In recent years, we have become aware of growing 

opposition from the general population to decisions 

which could harm society and its environment. The 

concerns of the public about different management 

strategies are often due to a lack of knowledge and 

information or a fear of negative impacts. Public pressures have led to stricter and more demanding type of 

regulations regarding consultation prior to an environmental project. Since the population increasingly needs 

to be consulted in relation to environmental decisions 

and policies in North America, there is a move towards 

greater public participation in environmental debates. 

The example of the SGSL-Coalition shows the need for 

such groups to lessen this gap in knowledge and information. Community or regional monitoring is one of 

the main actions that can help improve such knowledge 

upon which decision making and strategies can be based. 

Subsequently, considering the data and information gathered through activities from regional groups, decision 

makers can better address concerns and opinions from 

the general public before making decisions on environmental issues and sustainable development. This raises 

questions such as, what kind of public participation 

should we consider? What advantages or disadvantages 

does public consultation pose? Which conditions do we 

have to respect to obtain successful public participation 

in decisions on environmental questions? (Vasseur and 

others 1997).
496 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Although the SGSL-Coalition is a young organization, 

already some lessons can be drawn from past experiences 

regarding decision making and public participation in 

sustainability strategies. Assembling stakeholders from 

all sectors of society can be advantageous as it can lead 

to greater discussion, consensus building, and social 

acceptability.

It is, however, a victim of its own concept, as inclusiveness remains difficult to maintain. The first challenge 

which the SGSL-Coalition faced was the claim of objectivity and transparency. It is easy for some groups to 

target some of the stakeholders and complain about their 

level of involvement and influence. This has occurred 

in the past due to the link between federal government 

and financial support for the Coalition. In this case, accounting and communication have to be as transparent 

as possible to avoid complains. To reduce concerns 

on this issue of interfering in funding allocation, the 

SGSL-Coalition management committee includes all 

stakeholders but government agents are ex-officio, in 

other words, they remain neutral and do not vote during 

decision making for funding allocation.

The type of actions that the Coalition can undertake 

have to be thought through carefully as it is not in its 

mandate to compete for funding and duplicate activities 

of other groups in the region. In fact, synergy should be 

promoted through the use of the Coalition as a mechanism to apply for greater funding on behalf of several 

smaller groups in the region. This occurred in 2004 with 

the implementation of a new monitoring program on a 

coastal aquatic ecosystem. In this example, more than 

10 community and non-governmental groups have been 

involved and linked with the use of a newly graduated 

student supported under a federal employment program. 

Without such funding, the various groups participating 

in this program would have been smaller in number and 

more limited in terms of their level of participation.

A concern that sometime limits the participation or 

collaboration of industries and certain types of groups 

is the level of activism or influence on the decision making process the Coalition could have. Going back to its 

mandate, the SGSL-Coalition is first and foremost an 

information clearinghouse and thus has the advantage of 

acquiring information and communicating it in a more 

neutral way. There has been some debate over the years 

as to whether the Coalition should advocate for issues 

that have been of great concern for some members of the 

Coalition. For example, on several occasions, the SGSLCoalition has been pushed to take a position regarding oil 

and gas development and the construction of incinerators. 

In all of these cases, the management committee has 

kept its role by reminding its members that the mandate 

of the Coalition is to help the decision making process 

through discussion and information sharing, not by taking 

a position that could be against the values and wishes of 

some of the members. Activism or position taking has 

been avoided in all cases although this has caused several 

groups to reduce their participation in the Coalition. This 

neutral role has also been a disadvantage in the profile 

building of the SGSL-Coalition. Because of its limited 

mandate, it has been viewed by other organizations as 

less effective and lacking in terms of action. The situation 

in which the SGSL-Coalition is found can work as both 

an advantage and a disadvantage. The disadvantage is 

that it is more vulnerable to criticism of inaction. This 

perceived inaction of the Coalition has also lead to threats 

in reduction for funding support. But it has the advantage, 

when well established, to be highly powerful for helping 

decision makers as its credibility is enhanced and well 

accepted. Consensus in decision making is not automatically reached as soon as public participation is enhanced 

but it certainly increases the possibility. This is the main 

role that the Coalition is trying to achieve through greater 

participation and information sharing.

Conclusions

Environmental degradation, overexploitation, and 

pollution are affecting the health of ecosystems and 

sustainability, often impacting human health, quality of 

life and traditional uses. Regional or community actions 

and information sharing can help improve sustainability 

if certain conditions are respected. The SGSL-Coalition 

is one of the few examples of a regional participative and 

inclusive group that works towards promoting sustainability of the southern Gulf of St Lawrence ecosystem. 

Communities of interests such as academic institutions, 

municipal agencies, or First Nations, have the possibility 

to get together, discuss, and build consensus that can influence the decisions that affect them, their sustainability, 

and their environment. This group has been created from 

a community perspective and can therefore reach people 

from different constituencies.

The SGSL-Coalition, like many others, faces several 

challenges over its establishment and maintenance. To 

be true to its mandate, the SGSL-Coalition has chosen 

to remain neutral, inclusive, transparent, and objective 

leading the way to communication and information 

sharing. While this role is highly legitimate in the current society it also has some disadvantages mainly in 

the beginning of the establishment of the coalition. For 

the establishment of such a group, it is recommended 

that the mandate of the group is clearly stated to all 

members and non-members to ensure that there is not 

dissatisfaction regarding the work that the group can or 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 497

cannot do. The group can, of course, evolve over time 

and integrate more activities or strategies. For example, 

it is envisioned that over the next few years, community-based environmental monitoring will become part 

of the normal actions of the SGSL-Coalition. It is clear 

that monitoring is an excellent approach for gathering 

long term data and trends, information greatly needed by 

decision makers for better sustainability of the policies 

or actions regarding the environment (Kappelle 2000, 

Yarnell and Gayton 2003).

The SGSL-Coalition is often perceived as a community group because it started at the grassroots/community 

level. Other such groups are often built from a science 

viewpoint with scientific partners. Exchanges on lessons 

learned with such groups showed that in the end, in order 

to sustain actions, a balance between community and science has to be established. In the case of the Coalition the 

community came first then the involvement of scientists. 

In other cases, when scientists were first involved in the 

creation of such groups, a community approach had to 

be added to maintain their actions and improve effectiveness. Decision making is a process that can be done 

rapidly without consultation and information sharing. If 

a region is to be true in terms of supporting sustainable 

development and environmental protection, however, 

information sharing and inclusiveness should be amongst 

the main principles by which it is doing business. While 

this strategy is more time and resource consuming, long 

term results should lead to greater social acceptability, 

consensus, and sustainability. It is hoped that through this 

process the region of the southern Gulf of St Lawrence 

can become a living example of these principles.

References

Bisset R. 2000. Methods of consultation and public participation (Chapter 9). In: Lee N, George C, Eds. Environmental 

assessment in developing and transitional countries. 

Chichester: Wiley. 290 p.

Canadian Round Tables. 1993. Building consensus for a 

sustainable future: guiding principles. Round Tables on the 

Environment and Economy of Canada. ISBN 1-895643-

24-4.

Bruntland, G.H. (Chair) 1987. Our common future. The World 

Commission on Environment and Development, Oxford 

University Press, Oxford. 383 pp.

Hance, B.J., Chess, C., and Sandman, T.M. 1990. Industry risk 

communication manual: improving dialog with community. 

Boca Raton, FL : Lewis Publishers. 119 p.

Hardi, P. and T. Zdan. 1997. Assessing sustainable development: principles in practice. ISBN 1-895536-07-3. 

Winnipeg, MB: International Institute for Sustainable 

Development. 166 p.

Kappelle, M. 2000. Criteria, indicators and tools for monitoring ecosystem health. Environmental Conservation 27(1): 

84–85.

Sheate W. R. 1991. Public participation: the key to effective 

environmental assessment. Environmental Policy and Law. 

21(3/4): 156– 60.

Shepherd A and Bowler C. 1997. Beyond the requirements: improving public participation in EIA. Journal of 

Environmental Planning and Management. 40: 725– 38.

Slocombe, D.S. 1998. Defining goals and criteria for ecosystem-based management. Environmental Management. 22: 

483-493.

Vasseur, L., L. Lafrance, D. Renaud, D. Morin, T. Audet & 

C. Ansseau. 1997. Advisory committee: a powerful tool 

for helping decision making in environmental issues. 

Environmental Management. 21: 359-365.

Vasseur, L. and W. Hart. 2002. A basic theoretical framework for community-based conservation management in 

China and Vietnam. International Journal of Sustainable 

Development and World Ecology. 9: 41-47.

Vasseur, L., D. Rapport and J. Hounsell. 2002a. Linking 

ecosystem health to human health: a challenge for this 

new century. In B. Costanza and S. Jorgensen, Eds. 

Understanding and Solving Environmental Problems in the 

21st Century, ch. 9. Cambridge: Elsevier: 167-190.

Vasseur, L., P.G. Schaberg, J. Hounsell, R. McMurtry. 2002b. 

Linking ecosystem health to human health a statement 

to policy makers. In B. Costanza and S. Jorgensen, Eds. 

Understanding and Solving Environmental Problems in the 

21stCentury, ch. 10. Cambridge: Elsevier: 192-213.

Yarnell P. and D.V. Gayton, 2003. Community-based ecosystem monitoring in British Columbia: A survey and 

recommendations for extension. FORREX Series 13. 

Kamloops, BC: FORREX–Forest Research Extension 

Partnership. 37 p.
498 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 499

Sustainability Traditional 

Knowledge
500 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

GLOBE ONE is a field campaign involving a first hand 

partnership between students and scientists to collect a 

structured, multidisciplinary data set designed to answer 

a research question. The campaign started in spring 2004 

and will run through to fall 2005. GLOBE ONE was 

developed by GLOBE science Principal Investigators 

(PI) with the help of GLOBE Program Office to demonstrate the capability of GLOBE student-teacher-scientist 

partnerships to produce scientific results publishable in 

refereed journals.

The GLOBE Program (www.globe.gov) is an international science and education programs that involves K-12 

students in meaningful science. Formed in 1994, GLOBE 

has grown to include 14,000 schools in 106 countries. 

GLOBE dedicates resources to develop and support 

over 50 protocols including data entry, storage, and 

access mechanisms that are capable of supporting true 

scientific research. GLOBE supports PI research teams 

charged with providing scientific publications based on 

GLOBE data. Students are collecting measurements in 

the areas of Atmosphere and Climate, Hydrology, Soils, 

Land Cover, and Phenology.

GLOBE is managed by the University Corporation 

for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) and supported by 

the National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

(NASA), the National Science Foundation (NSF), and 

the U.S. Department of State. Implementation in the 

United States depends upon the efforts of more than 

100 U.S. Partners—universities, state departments of 

education, school districts, and other non-profit organizations. U.S. Partners raise their own funds, leveraged 

off the Federal investment in the program, to deliver 

GLOBE in their areas. U.S. Partners recruit schools, 

train teachers, provide follow-up support, and help in 

the adaptation of the program to state and local standards and requirements. Because broad international 

participation is integral to the implementation of the 

program, GLOBE enters into formal agreements with 

countries all over the world. In these partnerships, 

GLOBE provides the program infrastructure. Each 

international partner manages and provides funding for 

its own implementation, acquiring the resources from 

government, private sector, and non-profit sources. 

GLOBE partners determine implementation strategies 

consistent with their countries’ educational systems 

and priorities.

GLOBE ONE: A Community-Based Environmental Field 

Campaign

Rebecca Boger PhD, Peggy LeMone PhD, John McLaughlin, 

Sharon Sikora PhD, Sandra Henderson PhD

Abstract—The Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) 

program is an international environmental science and education program involving 

scientists, teachers and students in the collection, analysis, and display of data used in 

environmental monitoring and research. Since its formation in 1994, students have collected over 11 million data points in Atmosphere, Hydrology, Soils, Land Cover/Biology 

and Phenology investigation areas. At present, over 14,000 schools in 106 countries 

participate in GLOBE (www.globe.gov). In 2003, GLOBE scientists, K-12 teachers and 

students, and citizen volunteer groups in Black Hawk County, Iowa started collaborating on a multi-disciplinary intensive data collection effort called GLOBE ONE. Research 

questions for this campaign focus on a community-specific generated issue; the central 

scientific objective compares quantitatively the environmental effects of various soil 

tillage techniques in Black Hawk County. Multiple data sets are being collected over 

a two-year period with the bulk of data collection performed by GLOBE students collaborating with scientists. GLOBE ONE and GLOBE Iowa supply an infrastructure for 

community and partner aid to the GLOBE schools and supplement measurements when 

required. This low-cost campaign provides a model for future scientific partnerships 

involving GLOBE students, teachers, scientists, and community organizations. While 

providing scientific data, this community-based campaign sets the stage for sustainable 

environmental stewardship, monitoring and planning.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 501

Rationale

The GLOBE Program offers science and education 

materials that are used all around the world. The data, 

available from the GLOBE Web site, is used to help answer a variety of questions at local, regional and global 

scales. However, the data can lack temporal or spatial 

continuity, and thus limits the scientific usefulness. 

Furthermore, for an integrated Earth system approach, 

multiple types of data may be required at a given location 

or region. GLOBE ONE was designed to get a temporally and spatially intense data set. Furthermore, it was 

designed at the onset to have broad-based community 

interest and involvement. It is hoped that this will help 

set the stage for continued environmental monitoring 

and research by many different people and organizations 

(e.g., primary and secondary schools, universities, private 

sector, volunteer organizations) within the community.

Science Objectives

The science objectives of GLOBE ONE involve comparing the environmental impacts of tillage techniques 

used in agriculture. Specifically, scientists are investigating the impacts associated with varying the frequency 

and intensity of soil tillage and with varying the amount 

of crop residue left after crops are planted. The central 

question being asked is:

For corn and soybeans, what are the environmental 

impacts associated with different frequencies and 

intensities of soil tillage farming, and with different 

amounts of crop residue left after planting as 

compared to prairie and urban sites?

Tillage is a manipulation of soil by physical means 

to create soil conditions suitable for plant growth (Gajri 

and others 2002). Conventional tillage, also known as intensive tillage, involves intense manipulation of the soil, 

generally via plowing, and leaves less than 15 percent of 

crop residues on the soil surface after planting (Koller 

2003). This tilling practice is used to prepare the soil for 

seeding and to remove weeds. However, it also removes 

crop residue that protects the surface of the soil, and can 

make the soil vulnerable to erosion.

In recent years there has been a rise in the use of 

alternative tillage practices that serve to reduce erosion, namely reduced tillage, conservation tillage and 

no-tillage. Reduced tillage is a practice in which the 

soil is tilled to some degree and 15-30 percent of the 

soil surface is covered with crop residue after planting 

(Gajri and others 2002). Conservation tillage refers to 

any tillage practice the leaves at least 30 percent of the 

soil surface covered with crop residue after planting, the 

intensity and frequency of the tillage can vary but do not 

involve turning the soil completely upside down (Koller 

2003). No-tillage refers to a practice in which the soil is 

not physically disturbed from harvest to planting (Koller 

2003). The amount of crop residue left at the time of 

planting can be varied with no-tillage.

For each investigation area (Atmosphere, Hydrology, 

Phenology, and Soils), there are additional questions being asked. The multidisciplinary perspective that GLOBE 

ONE applies to assess the environmental impacts of an 

alteration in land management practices is key in assessing the environmental impacts.

Education Objectives

The involvement of GLOBE ONE Principal 

Investigators and local scientists with the schools may 

have tremendous impact on the accessibility of science as 

a career choice in addition to the overall attitude students 

have toward the nature of science. The National Science 

Education Standards for Professional Development of 

teachers include involving teachers in authentic research 

as a means of improving science education in their classroom. Teachers who have had research experience can 

positively affect the environment for learning science in 

their classrooms (Caton and others 2000, Johnson 2002, 

Odom 2001). Teachers and their students in GLOBE 

ONE will contribute to real science investigations of the 

effects of land use change on components of the Earth 

System.

Direct interaction with scientists occurs through a 

series of protocol workshops, field trips, and school site 

visits. As well, students will be encouraged to develop 

their own research questions and work with scientists 

on the development of these projects. In March 2005, 

an education workshop is scheduled for Iowa teachers 

to discuss the implementation of GLOBE ONE activities 

in the classroom.

Study Location

Black Hawk County, an agricultural area in northeastern Iowa, is the location of the field campaign. Black 

Hawk County was chosen for a number of reasons. The 

scientific questions match both the land-surface types 

found in the county and community concerns regarding 

land usage. Black Hawk County has a strong existing 

partnership with the University of Northern Iowa. The 

University of Northern Iowa offers the opportunity for 
502 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

support and collaboration. Also, there are several other 

local organizations that have been tapped into to join the 

GLOBE ONE effort.

Data Collection

GLOBE students and volunteers in collaboration 

with scientists are collecting most of the data in this 

field campaign. GLOBE ONE and GLOBE Iowa supply 

an infrastructure for community and partner aid to the 

GLOBE schools and supplement measurements when 

required.

GLOBE ONE currently involves students from thirty 

classrooms in the Waterloo School District, University 

of Northern Iowa summer enrichment programs, local 

girl scouts, and IOWATER (a volunteer water monitoring organization). The Waterloo School District is one 

of four school districts in Black Hawk County. Active 

recruitment efforts are underway to include teachers 

and students from the other three districts. High school 

students enrolled in the University of Northern Iowa’s 

Upward Bound program are collecting data for GLOBE 

ONE. Upward Bound serves high school students from 

low-income families, high school students from families 

in which neither parent hold a bachelors degree, and 

low-income, first-generation military veterans who are 

preparing to enter postsecondary education. The rigorous academic nature of GLOBE ONE aligns well with 

the goals and objectives of Upward Bound. A local Girl 

Scout troop from Black Hawk County is also participating in the data collection.

The list of the protocols used, required instruments, 

frequency of measurements and type of site is listed in 

table 1 – Data Collection Details. Sites are designated 

as either intensive or extensive. Intensive sites are the 

actual investigative sites where the data will be rigorously 

collected, while extensive sites are external to the actual 

investigation providing additional metadata to assist in 

the interpretation of the results especially in the area of 

Earth as a system. Ten intensive sites are being used to 

characterize areas with tillage of notable frequency and 

intensity (four sites), no-tillage (four sites), and prairie 

(two sites). Extensive sites are located at schools and 

feature student-driven measurements.

Potential Impacts/

contributions of GLOBE ONE

GLOBE ONE is gathering numerous complementary 

datasets to support GLOBE and non-GLOBE scientists 

in their study of the interaction of land cover and land 

use with weather, water, and biota. These datasets are 

used for basic research and have many management applications. The participating students and teachers have 

a remarkable opportunity to work directly with these 

scientists, and obtain an inside view of a major research 

campaign. GLOBE ONE features measurements taken 

by students with the oversight and support of scientists. 

Both students and scientists will analyze the collected 

data to help answer the central and numerous related 

research questions.

In particular, some of the benefits of the GLOBE 

ONE include:

The current GLOBE ONE dataset is quality-controlled 

and continuous.

In GLOBE ONE, quality-controlled and continuous 

data will be achieved through intensive PI involvement, active local supervision, incentive systems, and 

extensive community involvement. Some data will be 

gathered using automated weather stations. Students 

and PIs involved in answering the science questions 

will be looking at the data as it is collected both for 

data assessment and to obtain early insights into answering the GLOBE ONE research questions.

The GLOBE ONE data set is comprehensive.

GLOBE ONE implements a large portion of scientifically-robust interdisciplinary Earth System Science 

(ESS) toolkit for measuring soil, atmosphere, hydrologic, land cover, and phenological states and 

processes that is provided by the GLOBE protocols.

GLOBE ONE involves the community.

The central science questions of GLOBE ONE were 

developed in collaboration with scientists in Black 

Hawk County, ensuring both the collection of the 

proper data, and community interest. This is important 

because the ideal GLOBE implementation scheme 

requires participation from multiple sectors of the local 

communities. Having many different groups working 

together to collect data allows creation of a larger 

and more complete data sets than could possibly be 

obtained by individual schools. GLOBE ONE serves 

to set up a strong example of how these partnerships 

can work. Scientists and local groups are working 

hands-on with schools to collect data.

Conclusion

In GLOBE ONE, many scientists have a vested interest 

in the data being collected, and these scientists are coordinating their activities to create a multidisciplinary dataset 

among themselves while working with students and other 

members of the Black Hawk community. Likewise the 

1.

2.

3.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 503

Table 1. Data Collection Details.

Protocol Instruments and Supplies Sites Frequency

Soil temperature

Soil moisture

Air temperature

Precipitation Automated weather stations 10 intensive Continuous wireless or 

Relative humidity downloads every 3 weeks/

Wind speed month

Barometric pressure

Wind direction

Soil characterization: 

texture, structure, color, 10 intensive, and 4 One time

consistence, horizon, bulk extensive, smaller set

density, particle density, of measurements for

root and rock, pH, slope MUC and Soil-a-thon

Soil organic matter, 

carbon and nitrogen, ,psd, Supplementary in lab of 10 intensive One time

fertility, .3 and 1.5MPA Dr. Sparrow and/or Levine

water, bulk density

Greenup/greendown Ruler, color charts 10 intensive and 4 Twice weekly, seasonal

extensive

Hummingbird* Feeder, optional; Nectar 4 extensive Daily, spring to fall

plants, optional

Water pH Meter, calibration solution 10 intensive Weekly (non-frozen)

Water conductivity Meter and calibration solution 10 intensive Weekly

Water turbidity Turbidity tube 10 intensive Weekly

Water dissolved oxygen Probe and/or test kit 10 intensive Weekly

Water nitrates Probe or test kit 10 intensive Weekly

Water temperature Probe and/or thermometer 10 intensive Weekly

Water alkalinity Probe and/or test kit 10 intensive Weekly

Rain Rain gauge 4 extensive Daily

Snow Snow board and meter stick 4 extensive Daily

Precipitation pH pH meter and calibration solution 4 extensive Daily

Clouds and contrails Cloud charts, web photos 4 extensive Daily

Aerosols Sun photometer 2 extensive Daily

Water vapor GLOBE/GIFTS Water Vapor Instrument 2 extensive Daily

Surface Temperature Infrared thermometer 10 intensive Daily or weekly

Land Cover Sample Site cameras, GPS’, MUC Field many Once a year

and Biometry Guide, densiometers, 

(MUC-A-THON) clinometers

Mapping satellite imagery, transparencies one per school Once

and markers or computers with

MultiSpec

solar insolation, and Specially designed “full sky” 2 extensive Data logged, requires weekly

UVA** instruments download

* this protocol included due to educational benefits, and special request of Iowa schools.

** these measurements may be piggybacked to aid in PI research, but are not GLOBE protocols or essential to main research question.
504 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

community has a vested interest in the questions being 

asked and the types of research being conducted by scientists and students. By working together, a model for 

a learning community is being developed. This learning 

community enables students to use the environment as 

a focus of study while providing data that can be used 

for research, monitoring, and management. This broadbased community participation will hopefully continue 

after the completion of GLOBE ONE in Black Hawk 

County. In addition, the model can be adopted in other 

communities to address other research questions utilizing 

local institutions and organizations.

References

Caton, E., Brewer, C., & Brown, F., 2000. Building TeacherScientist Partnerships: Teaching about Energy through 

Inquiry. School Science and Mathematics 100: 7-15.

Gajri, P.R., Akora, V.K., Prihar, S.S. 2002. Tillage for 

Sustainable Cropping. New York: Food Products Press.

Johnson, M., 2002. Teacher as Researcher. Science Teacher 

69: 40-42.

Koller, K., 2003. Techniques of Soil Tillage, in Koller, A. (ed.), 

Soil Tillage in Agroecosystems. 2003, CRC Press, 1-25.

Odom, A.L., 2001. Inquiry-Based Field Studies Involving 

Teacher-Scientist Collaboration. Science Educator 10: 

29-37.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 505

The United States Forest Service was established in 

1905 to manage vast tracts of forest and grassland held 

in the public domain, particularly in the western states. 

The primary charge of the new agency was to manage 

the timber and protect the water supply on public lands. 

This is still the case, although in recent decades there 

has been less emphasis on providing timber for market 

and more emphasis on maintaining or restoring forest 

ecosystems. The Healthy Forests Initiative (HFI) and 

the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA) represent 

recent policy initiatives that direct the Forest Service to 

focus resources on reducing the effects of wildfire on 

forest ecosystems and adjacent private property. These 

initiatives highlight the perceived catastrophic nature 

of recent large-scale wildfires in the western United 

States and emphasize the need to move quickly to alter 

forest ecosystems to make them less susceptible to large 

scale fire events. They direct the agency to use science 

to develop appropriate action plans but de-emphasize 

the use of National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) 

procedures generally used to incorporate scientific data 

into planning efforts. Coarse–scale modeling of Fire 

Regime Current Conditions (FRCC) is being utilized 

at the local planning level with little fine-scale “ground 

truthing” of the affected stands. This paper examines the 

potential to use existent and readily available historical 

and archaeological data to help fine tune FRCC.

A spat of environmental and land management legislation from the 1960s and 1970s provide the majority of 

the legal and regulatory framework in which the Forest 

Service now operates (Meidinger 1997). These include 

the Multiple-Use Sustained-Yield Act, the National 

Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), the National Forest 

Management Act (NFMA), the Endangered Species Act 

(ESA), the National Clean Water Act, and the Clean Air 

Act. These laws, and the social setting in which they 

evolved, have increased the importance of integrating 

scientifically valid information into forest management 

(Cortner and others 1999). These optimistic and sometimes conflicting mandates are expensive, at least in short 

term, and do not provide the immediately apparent results 

conducive to long term political support.

Devil’s in the Details: Using Archaeological and Historical 

Data to Refine Ecosystem Models at the Local Level

Don Hann, Forest Archaeologist, Malheur National Forest, John Day, OR

Abstract—The United States Forest Service is charged with managing extensive and 

varied ecosystems throughout the country. Under the rubric of “ecosystem management” the goal has been to provide goods and services from Forest Service lands while 

maintaining ecological integrity. Recognizing that ecosystems are dynamic in nature, 

the concept of Historical Range of Variability (HRV) has been developed to capture the 

range of conditions expected within ecosystems. Over the last fifteen years extensive 

wildfires have occurred in many parts of the western United States at a scale that has 

rarely been equaled during the last century. Based on the assumption that the severity 

of many of these fires was amplified by unnaturally high fuel loads caused by decades 

of fire exclusion, a program of altering forest structure on the landscape scale has been 

proposed. In order to implement this policy at the scale required to have a meaningful 

effect on wildfire behavior, the Forest Service relies on a series of increasingly sophisticated computer models. These models allow managers to quantify and visualize the 

effects of various restoration actions, or inaction, on wildfire behavior. Although they 

are extremely useful tools, there are inherent limitations to models when implementing actions in the real world. Gaps in data and the simplification of complex natural 

processes are obscured during modeling. A variety of plant and animal macrofossils 

recovered in archaeological contexts and historical data from journals, newspapers, 

survey notes and photographs can provide critical information concerning the HRV of 

specific ecosystems. Use of local archaeological and historical data can be invaluable in 

refining large-scale models to more accurately reflect local ecological conditions. This 

paper examines the types of data available in the southern Blue Mountains of eastern 

Oregon and provides examples of the use of these data in ecosystem planning on the 

Malheur National Forest.
506 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Through implementation of these mandates Federal 

land managers and scientists developed a process referred to as ecosystem management (Cortner and others 

1999). This process provides an adaptive framework 

to evaluate management goals and constraints using 

diverse scientific information in order to estimate how 

various ecosystems will respond to given actions. NEPA 

in particular mandates interdisciplinary analysis of 

proposed management actions in order to evaluate the 

possible effects on a range of resources (Bass and others 2001). Since ecosystems are dynamic in nature, it is 

important to understand the variety of plant and animal 

communities that occur in a given area over time. One 

way to approach this is the concept of Historic Range 

of Variability (HRV). In spite of a number of difficulties 

in applying HRV to project planning, it is still a widely 

used approach to account for ecosystem variability over 

time (Romme and others 2003). Historical records and 

archaeological data can provide useful information for 

the determination of HRV during planning.

Although not unusual when viewed at a time scale of 

multiple centuries, several fire seasons during the last 

1 1/2 decades have been more severe than any since 

1960 (Williams and Dellasala 2004). Increased human population and a preference for living in rural and 

suburban settings has resulted in a substantial increase 

in the number of residences built within or adjacent to 

forested land. Within these areas, now referred to as the 

Wildland/Urban Interface (WUI), thousands of homes 

have been lost during large wildfire events. A number 

of factors have contributed to the increased size and 

often the severity of wildfire over the last two decades. 

These include climatic variations, drought, disease, and 

heavy fuel load caused by increased vegetation density 

(Graham and others 2004). In many Western forests 

fuel loads have likely increased beyond historic levels 

at least partly due to almost a century of successful fire 

suppression actions (Romme and others 2003). This is 

particularly true in dry pine (Pinus) forest stands but less 

well understood in mixed conifer stands. Fire suppression 

has probably played an insignificant role in sub-alpine, 

moist fir (Abies) dominant and lodgepole pine (Pinus 

contorta) stands and other stands with fairly long historic fire return intervals. The current climatic situation, 

including “global warming” trends and several years of 

drought, are likely primary drivers of the current wildfire 

situation (McKenzie and others 2004). The overall effect 

of these uncontrollable climate and weather variables, 

versus fuel loading, which is controllable through management actions such as thinning and prescribed fire, is 

not well understood.

The extreme wildfire behavior during the last several years has led to significant new legislation and 

administrative rules/regulations aimed at expediting forest fuel reduction projects. The Healthy Forests Initiative 

(HFI) and the Healthy Forests Restoration Act (HFRA) 

are meant to guide Federal land managers out of “process 

predicaments” that are perceived to be delaying rapid 

implementation of fuels reduction projects (USDA Forest 

Service 2004). The interdisciplinary planning process 

mandated under NEPA can be time consuming and relatively expensive (Bass and others 2001). Ecosystems are 

complex. It takes time to consolidate and analyze the data 

needed in order to understand the effects of management 

actions on the multiple components of the ecosystems in 

a planning area. Fire is one of the most important disturbance processes in forests in the western United States 

and altering fire regimes through thinning and prescribed 

burning will have significant, and hopefully positive, 

environmental effects (McKenzie and others 2004).

Under the HFI fuels reduction projects 1000 acres 

or less in size and prescribed burning of 4500 acres or 

less can be addressed as “Categorically Excluded” under NEPA (USDA Forest Service 2004). Categorically 

excluded projects undergo only minimal environmental 

review under NEPA (Bass and others 2001). To qualify, these projects must either be in a Wildland-Urban 

Interface (WUI) or in an area that is rated a Fire Regime 

Current Condition (FRCC) Two or Three. A WUI is land 

that extends anywhere from 1⁄2 mile to 11⁄2 miles from the 

boundary of residential land, depending on the environmental and topographic setting (USDA Forest Service 

2004). FRCC is a rating of the estimated current stand 

fuel loading compared to its estimated historic fuel loading based on a course-scale model (GAO 2004a).

In order to consider these projects Categorical 

Exclusions under NEPA the HFI makes several assumptions (USDA Forest Service 2004). First, forest fuel loads 

are unnaturally high due primarily to 100 years of fire 

exclusion; second, large wildfires are catastrophic and 

cause significant resource damage; and third, environmental effects of prescribed fires and fuels reduction 

projects are well understood and generally minor. This 

last point is particularly significant since Categorical 

Exclusions under NEPA only apply to projects that do 

not “individually or cumulatively have a significant 

effect on the human environment” (Bass and others 

2001). All of these assumptions are being actively 

debated (Beschta and others 2004, Brown and others 

2004, Dombeck and others 2004, Everett and others 

2000, GAO 2004, Graham 2003, Graham and others 

2004, Kaufman 2004, McKenzie and others 2004, Omi 

and Martinson 2002, Pfilf and others 2002). As Everett 

and others note, “Fire regimes are site specific based on 

forest type, topography, microclimate, ignition sources, 

and past disturbance history. Land management is also 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 507

site specific, requiring local information on fire regimes 

to manage for this important disturbance” (2000). For 

these reasons, among others, it is likely that most fuels 

reduction projects conducted on a landscape scale will 

be analyzed using the more complete NEPA processes of 

Environmental Assessments and Environmental Impact 

Statements (Bass and others 2001).

Regardless of the type of NEPA analysis to be conducted, FRCC modeling is still the tool used to estimate 

the priority for treatment for forest stands (GAO 2004a). 

In a resent review of the analysis of effects from wildfire 

and fuels reduction projects by the General Accounting 

Office it was made clear that there is a lack of consensus 

on how to describe and analyze potential effects (GAO 

2004). The report lists 19 existing models and similar 

tools used in planning and managing fires (GAO 2004b). 

Most of these look at a limited range of effects and were 

not designed for extensive effects analysis. All ecosystem 

models are abstractions of reality and they intentionally 

simplify complex natural processes. This is an inherent 

limitation of modeling and does not invalidate the use 

of models so long as the assumptions used and data gaps 

present are made explicit.

The model used to generate FRCC was devised to 

estimate the condition of ecosystems on a national 

scale and is not intended for identifying condition class 

by watershed or stand at the local level. The team that 

developed the model has clearly laid out the assumptions they used and limitations of their data. “To assess 

fire regime current conditions, we needed a baseline of 

conditions from which to compare. A critical data layer 

developed to assess current conditions and departure 

from historic conditions was the ‘Historic Natural Fire 

Regime’ layer” (Schmidt and others 2002). This data 

layer was completed “using expert knowledge to assign 

fire regimes to General Land Cover Classes” and was 

refined by integrating “expert knowledge, remote sensing, and biophysical data to map fire regimes” (Schmidt 

and others 2002). “Expert knowledge” while certainly 

useful for many things, is difficult to quantify or verify 

in this context.

Their methodology was described as “similar to that 

used by Brown and others (1994), who integrated site 

characteristics, habitat types, topographic attributes, and 

vegetation to map fire regimes” (Schmidt and others 

2002). In spite of being perhaps difficult to replicate, 

this methodology and the use of unspecified “expert 

knowledge” was perfectly valid for the stated goal of 

providing generalized national-scale data. It is only when 

this model is applied at the local project level, against 

the specific advice of the model’s authors, that problems 

can arise. To compensate for this, “the Forest Service 

and the Department of the Interior are developing a 

project-level analysis tool [that] requires the field office 

staff to conduct a field visit to examine vegetation conditions, to consider them in context of past and current fire 

regimes, and to estimate the alteration of fire regimes and 

fire intensity if a fire were to burn in the current conditions” (GAO 2004a).

In to understand the ecological effects of modern 

wildfire, prescribed fires or mechanical treatment of fuels, 

an understanding of the historic fire regime is necessary 

(Everett and others 1999, Graham and others 2004, 

Romme and others 2003). Fire ecologists have developed a number of ways to estimate historic fire regimes 

for specific stands. The most accurate of these involve 

compiling fire histories from fire scarred trees and stumps 

or using data on stand age classes in situations (Everett 

and others 1999). Although accurate, these processes 

can be time consuming and relatively expensive. Since 

fire scars are a finite resource that is reduced as trees and 

stumps containing scars deteriorate from rot and fire, this 

expense may be worthwhile. Historic fire regimes for specific stands are often estimated from stands with known 

fire histories that appear similar in type and topographic 

setting. This often becomes a matter of applying “expert 

knowledge” in ways that are often inexact and difficult 

to explain. Estimates of FRCC, whether identified from 

course-scale models or extrapolation from similar stands, 

can often be checked against existing historical, archaeological and paleo-ecological data.

A wide range of historical, archaeological and paleoecological data can be used to provide important clues 

as to the veracity of estimated FRCC (Sullivan and 

others 1999). As with any data, it must be used critically and with an awareness of limitations in accuracy, 

completeness, and scale. It is important to bear in mind 

that ecosystems are in constant flux and most historical 

data provides only a brief snapshot of the ecological 

conditions at a given point in time. Understanding the 

source of the information can be useful in identifying 

potential reporter or transcriber errors. Some historic 

and archaeological data is specific to a given stand, but 

more frequently it is based on sources within the same 

or neighboring watersheds. When working with information that originated from stands other than those being 

analyzed it is necessary to consider the similarity in the 

environmental setting between the stands. Modern stand 

composition, aspect, elevation, soils type, and related 

environmental attributes can be used to determine how 

relevant the data is to the stand being studied. The greater 

the distance and the greater the variation in environmental 

settings between the data source and the study stand, the 

less confidence can be placed in the data.

Historical data can be found in a wide variety of forms 

(table 1). Journals, letters, and diaries of explorers and 
508 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

early settlers can contain descriptions of general, and 

occasionally quite specific, environmental settings. The 

earliest sources of historical information for the Malheur 

National Forest in eastern Oregon are daily journals kept 

by the Hudson’s Bay Company fur trappers in the 1820s 

and 1830s (Davies 1961). Although specific locations 

can be difficult to identify, there are descriptions of forest type and condition in the journals. Several locations 

entries record forest stands thick with downed timber. For 

example on October 9th 1826 Ogden reported that “all 

along our road this day we came over a woody country, 

Norway pines, and from the number of fallen trees, our 

progress was very slow, course east, distance nine miles” 

(Davies 1961). Clearly this was not an “open park-like 

stand” like those often generalized as occurring through 

eastern Oregon before the advent of active fire suppression (Campbell and others 2003).

Early newspaper accounts and later published interviews with longtime residents likewise contain a variety 

of information about forest conditions and cultural practices that affected them. For instance in the late 1800s 

there were several accounts of Indian hunting parties 

setting extensive fires as they left the mountains in the 

Fall. A variety of government records contain a wide 

range of environmental data. General Land Office survey notes and maps often provide the earliest landscape 

scale environmental descriptions in the western United 

States (fig. 1). In the Blue Mountains the earliest of the 

surveys took place in the 1860s. The surveyors mapped 

out the landscape in a one mile wide grid pattern. Physical 

markers were left every 1⁄4 mile and brief descriptions of 

the terrain and vegetation were recorded. The quality of 

the descriptions varied considerably with the interests 

and skills of the individual surveyors but at a minimum 

the extent and general types of vegetation were recorded 

and mapped. Internal Forest Service records dating 

back to 1905 can provide much information. These can 

be found in local or regional offices although many of 

the earliest records have been discarded over the years. 

Many of these records can be found in the United States 

National Archives. Some real gems are hidden in the 

archives but searching for records from this source can be 

time consuming. On the Malheur we have located early 

silvicultural survey reports, maps of forest stand types, 

early wildfire records, and grazing records.

Historic photographs can provide some of the cleanest 

data since they do not rely on the judgment of recorders of 

indeterminate ability. Any photograph with visible vegetation can be used as long as the approximate photo point 

and date can be determined. Re-photographic surveys, 

where modern photos are taken from the same location 

as historic photos, are effective records of ecosystem 

change (Gruell 2001). Many early agency photographs 

include information on location, date, time, and weather. 

Table 1. Sources of historical and archaeological data from the Malheur National Forest.

Type Examples Dates

Historic photo long term family collections 1860’s-present

Historic photo FS silvic 1908-present

Historic photo FS admin, misc 1908-present

Historic photo Osborn lookout panoramic 1935-1940

Historic photo range photo plots 1938-present

Historic photo aerial photos 1939-present

Historic documents Hudson’s bay journal 1825-1831

Historic documents army letters and journals 1865-1880

Historic documents settler’s letters, diaries, histories 1862-1940

Historic documents general land office survey notes and maps 1870’s-1960’s

Historic documents FS silvic reports and maps 1906-present

Historic documents FS fire reports and maps 1909-present

Historic documents FS range reports and maps 1915-present

Historic documents FS misc admin reports and maps 1905-present

Historic documents Indian agency records and maps 1868-1880

Historic documents American Indian ethnographic records and histories 1860-present

Historic documents newspaper articles 1870’s-present

Archaeological carbon 14 dating 7,000-200BP

Archaeological botanical remains from excavation 7,000-100BP

Archaeological faunal remains from excavation 3,000-100BP

Archaeological land use inferred from site type 7,000-100BP

Paleoecological pollen and plant macrofossils from sediment cores 7,000-100BP

Paleoecological packrat midden analysis 3,000BP-present

Paleoecological fire histories from scarred trees 1600-present

Paleoecological fire histories from sediment charcoal 10,000BP-present

Paleoecological geomorphological analysis 10,000BP-present

Paleoecological relic plant communities 1900-present
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 509

Some of these are located in local and regional files but 

copies of many are also located in the National Archives. 

Range evaluation plot and silvicultural report photographs are extremely useful but relatively uncommon. 

The backgrounds from photographs depicting general 

project work, recreation, or buildings can also show 

significant landscape and vegetation information and are 

more common. Aerial photographs from the Malheur date 

back to the 1930s and provide detailed information on 

stand composition and density. In the Pacific Northwest a 

series of panoramic photos were taken from fire lookouts 

between 1929 and 1942. These Osborne photographs 

were completed at 999 locations in the region including 

41 on the Malheur. They provide excellent overviews of 

several watersheds from each location. The photo points 

are easy to relocate and photograph in order to compare 

historic and current stand composition (fig. 2).

Archaeological and paleo-ecological data is more 

esoteric and frequently less readily available but it can 

be very useful in evaluating stand conditions over longer 

time periods. Wood charcoal recovered from archaeological sites and sediment cores can often be identified 

as to species and accurately dated (Sullivan and others 

1999). In settings where an intact sediment core can be 

recovered a detailed fire history can often be constructed. 

Once wood has been converted to charcoal it preserves 

quite well and could be recovered from sediment in forest 

stands to develop site specific fires histories. Charcoal 

fragments as small as .3 grams can now be dated, but cost 

will likely limit this application since numerous samples 

would be needed.

A sediment core recovered from Lost Lake, just north 

of the Malheur National Forest, has produced a 7,600 

year record of major wildfire events in a basin dominated by mixed conifer forest stands (Mehringer 1995). 

Sixteen charcoal lenses ranging from .2cm to 20cm thick 

were identified in the cores. Thickness of the charcoal 

lens is viewed as indicative of the size and intensity of 

the fire with the thicker layers of charcoal representing 

larger and/or more intense episodes. The largest fire by 

far took place immediately following the deposition of 

volcanic ash from the eruption of Mount Mazama at 

circa 7,600BP. The charcoal from this deposit is 20cm 

thick, compared with 3cm for the next thickest deposit 

and 1cm or less for the rest. It appears that the fine 

volcanic ash caused a major vegetation die-off that 

provided fuel for a truly catastrophic wildfire. Overall 

this core produced a record of amazing consistency of 

Figure 1. 1884 General Land Office map of Logan Valley. Box 

shows area of photo in figure 2.

Figure 2. Comparison photos from Antelope Lookout. Bottom 

photo 1935, top photo 1996. Note significant increase in 

tree density and loss of meadow.
510 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

stand composition and long fire return intervals across 

seven millennia.

Other botanical remains recovered from archaeological sites on the Malheur National Forest include 

charred roots and seeds, phytolyths and pollens. Camas 

(Camassia quamash) bulbs recovered from steaming 

ovens dated to 600 years ago strongly suggest that the valley where they were recovered was wetter and supported 

more camas plants at that time than currently. Mortar 

bases recovered at sites dating to the last 1200 years 

contained significant amounts of pollen from Lomatium 

sp which were an import Indian root crop (Varney and 

others 2003). Lomatium sp. plants are still common on 

the dry ridges associated with these sites. This suggests a 

broadly similar ecological setting at this location over the 

last 1200 years. Pollen recovered from the soil adhering 

to the mortars, and analyzed as a control, indicate that 

the pine tree line has retreated upslope at one location. 

Pollen recovered from sediment cores, especially from 

springs, bogs or lakes, can be used to complete quite 

detailed local vegetation histories.

Additional archaeological and paleo-ecological data 

that can be useful for determining aspects of ecosystem 

history include faunal remains from archaeological sites, 

floral material from packrat nests, geomorphological 

analysis of sediments and landforms, and artifacts such 

as mortars and grinding slabs. The location of sites across 

the landscape can also provide general information about 

changes in the environment over time. For instance, the 

presence of sites in dense lodgepole or young ponderosa 

pine (Pinus ponderosa) thickets suggest that these locations were much more open when they were occupied. 

Similarly, subsurface testing at archaeological sites 

located in and adjacent to meadows often demonstrates 

that sites were restricted to margins or low ridges out of 

the lower parts of the meadows proper. This suggests that 

many of the dry upland meadows on the Malheur were 

much wetter historically.

None of the preceding examples of historical and archaeological data is sufficient to independently determine 

HRV for forest stands but they can provide an important 

piece of the puzzle when used in conjunction with other 

evidence. An example from a meadow “rehabilitation” 

project on the Malheur National Forest demonstrates how 

disparate historical and archaeological evidence can be 

used to verify, or in this case modify, the proposed model 

of HRV for this location. Logan Valley is a large upland 

meadow located at the headwaters of the Malheur River. 

It is a mix of dry, moist and wet meadows surrounded 

by pine dominated mixed conifer stands and bisected by 

several creeks with their associated riparian communities. The northern fringe of the meadow has fingers of 

mature ponderosa and lodgepole pine feathering into 

the meadow with a dense growth of young lodgepole 

pine occurring as a lower story within and between the 

mature stands. The young pine filling once open spaces 

between the mature stands fits the generally held model 

of aggressive meadow encroachment by lodgepole as a 

result of wildfire exclusion. For several years the Forest 

has conducted thinning and burning projects to remove 

the pine to improve sandpiper nesting habitat.

 This was a perfectly logical, if primarily intuitive, 

model of the HRV for Logan Valley based on “expert 

knowledge.” Figure 2 illustrates similar meadow encroachment at another location south of Logan Valley 

which provides tentative support for this model. 

However, while doing historical background research 

for an unrelated project, employees with the Heritage 

program came across some site specific data that seemed 

to contradict the pine encroachment model. Figure 1 illustrates the 1884 General Land Office survey map for 

the area where the pine eradication projects were taking 

place. Figure 3 is a 2001 aerial photograph of the same 

location. A comparison of the map and photograph show 

that the pine “encroachment” north of the road in the 

Figure 3. 2001 aerial photo of Logan Valley section from box 

in figure 1. Horizontal road at center line on map. Note 

difference in tree line and “new” riparian in center of photo 

created by ditch. White boxes indicate pollen collection 

sites.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 511

center of the 2001 photo, is within the tree line as it is 

drawn on the 1884 map. This is compelling but it is possible that the tree line in the map either was in error or 

shows an anomalous expansion into the meadow.

During archaeological survey conducted during this 

same time three hopper mortar bases were collected sent 

to a lab for pollen analysis (Varney and others 2003). The 

artifacts were collected from three locations separated 

by one half mile (fig. 3, white boxes labeled dh1, dh5 

and dh10). The chart in figure 4 shows that the ratio of 

pine (Pinus) pollen to sagebrush (artemisia) pollen from 

each of the mortars provides evidence that the 1884 tree 

line is accurate. The northern sample (dh1), which was 

recovered at the edge of the modern tree line, produced 

much more pine pollen than it did sagebrush. The middle 

sample (dh5), which was within the 1884 tree line but is 

now in open grass/sagebrush, had virtually the identical 

pine to sagebrush pattern. The southern most sample 

(dh10), well south of both the modern and 1884 tree 

line, produced almost twice as much sagebrush pollen 

as it did pine pollen.

The historic and archaeological evidence from Logan 

Valley does suggest that the pine “encroaching” into the 

meadow may be part of a natural process moving the 

valley closer to its HRV than it is at present. By applying 

the principles of adaptive management we can respond 

to this new information and alter our stand treatment as 

appropriate (Bass and others 2001). It is important to 

recognize that the new evidence has not “proven” that 

the original model of pine encroachment was wrong. It 

simply suggests that a different model better explains the 

existing data. New data could be found, or an alternative 

explanation of the existing data could be developed, that 

might convince us that pine is indeed encroaching. This 

is not meant to suggest that we should simply give up 

and either do no management at all or do anything we 

want since it won’t matter anyway. The important lesson is that we should approach ecosystem management 

with an open mind and a reasonable dose of humility. 

Ecosystems are extraordinarily complex and we need to 

learn as we go.

The history of Federal land management contains 

notable cases where land managers, with the best of 

intensions, and using the best available science, made 

large-scale changes to western forests that we now regret 

(Langston 1995). One example is the heavy buildup of 

fuels in dry pine forests, much of which is the direct 

effect of decades of very successful fire suppression 

efforts (Graham and others 2004). There was an active 

scientific debate in the first part of the 20th Century as to 

whether total fire suppression or “light burning” was the 

proper way to treat pine stands. In one of several similar 

publications Snow and Kotok argued persuasively that 

repeated light burning killed most trees and rendered sites 

unproductive for decades (1924). The photographs of 

dense young pine that they used to illustrate “the return 

of the forest- when fire is kept out” are the same types of 

photos used today to illustrate dangerous fuel buildup. 

Cronon eloquently summed up the challenge (1995). 

“Even well intentioned management can have disastrous 

consequences if it is predicated on the wrong assumptions, and yet testing those assumptions is always much 

harder than people realize. To do so we must realize that 

ecosystems are profoundly historical, meaning that they 

exist in time and are the products as much of there own 

past as of the timelessly abstract process we think we 

see going on in them.” Hopefully we can remain open, 

humble and adaptive as we search for the proper ways to 

implement the Healthy Forest Initiative and the Healthy 

Forests Restoration Act.

References

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2001. The NEPA Book. Point Arena, CA: Solano Press 

Books.

Figure 4. Chart showing pollen from three mortars and 

associated soil. Difference between pine (Pinus) and 

sagebrush (Artemisia) indicate DH-1 and DH-5 historically 

pine forest while DH-10 historically open sagebrush 

meadow. (Varney and others 2003).
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Beschta, Robert L.; Jonathan J. Rhodes; J. Boone Kaufman; 

Robert E, Gresswell; G. Wayne Minshall; James R. Karr; 

David A. Perry; F. Richard Hauer and Christopher A. 

Frissell. 2004. Postfire Management of Forested Public 

Lands of the Western United States. Conservation Biology. 

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Brown, Richard T.; Stephen F. Arno; Stephen W. Barrett and 

James P. Menakis. 1994. Comparing the Prescribed Natural 

Fire Program with Presettlement fires in the SelwayBitterroot Wilderness. International Journal of Wildland 

Fire. 4(3). 157-168.

Brown, Richard T.; James K. Agee and Jerry F. Franklin. 2004. 

Forest Restoration and Fire: Principles in the Context of 

Place. Conservation Biology. 18(4): 903-912.

Campbell, Sally; Dave Azuma and Dale Weyerman. 2003. 

Forest of Eastern Oregon: An Overview. PNW-GTR-578, 

USDA, Forest Service, Region 6.

Cortner, Hanna J.; John C. Gordon; Paul G. Risser; Dennis 

E. Teegauarden; and Jack Ward Thomas. 1999. Ecosystem 

Management: Evolving Model for Stewardship of the 

Nation’s Natural Resources. In: R. C. Szaro; N. C. Johnson; 

W. T. Sexton and A. J. Malk, eds. Ecological Stewardship: 

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II. 1999. Kidlington, Oxford, UK: Elsevier Science, Ltd. 

3-19.

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In: Nancy Langston. Forest Dreams, Forest Nightmares: 

The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West. Seattle, 

WA: University of Washington Press.

Davies, K. G. ed. 1961. Peter Skene Ogden’s Snake Country 

Journal: 1826-27. London: The Hudson’s Bay Company 

Record Society.

Dombeck, Michael P.; Jack E. Williams and Christopher A. 

Wood. 2004. Wildfire Policy and Public Lands: Integrating 

Scientific Understanding with Social Concerns across 

Landscapes. Conservation Biology. 18(4): 883-889.

Everett, Richard L.; Richard Schellhaas; Dave Keenum; 

Don Spurbeck and Pete Ohlson. 2000. Fire History in the 

Ponderosa Pine/Douglas Fir Forests on the East Slope of 

the Washington Cascades. Forest Ecology and Management 

129. 207-255.

General Accounting Office (GAO). 2004. Wildland Fires: 

Forest Service and BLM Need Better Information 

and a Systematic Approach for Assessing the Risks of 

Environmental Effects. GAO-04-705.

General Accounting Office (GAO). 2004a. Appendix II: Fire 

Regime Condition Class Analysis. In: Wildland Fires: Forest 

Service and BLM Need Better Information and a Systematic 

Approach for Assessing the Risks of Environmental Effects. 

GAO-04-705. 61-63.

General Accounting Office (GAO). 2004b. Appendix VI: 

Example of Models for Assessing Wildland Fires and Fuels. 

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Information and a Systematic Approach for Assessing the 

Risks of Environmental Effects. GAO-04-705. 78-81.

Graham, Russell T. Ed. 2003. Hayman Fire Case Study. 

RMRS-GTR-114. Fort Collins, CO: U. S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research 

Station.

Graham, Russell T.; Sarah McCaffry; and Theresa B. Jain. 

2004. Science Basis for Changing Forest Structure to 

Modify Wildfire Behavior and Severity. RMRS-GTR-120. 

Fort Collins, CO: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 8-19.

Gruell, George E. 2001. Fire in Sierra Nevada Forests: 

A Photographic Interpretation of Ecological Change 

since 1849. Missoula, MT: Mountain Press Publishing 

Company.

Kauffman, J. Boone. 2004. Death Rides the Forest: Perceptions 

of Fire, Land Use, and Ecological Restoration of Western 

Forests. Conservation Biology. 18(4): 878-882.

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The Paradox of Old Growth in the Inland West. Seattle, 

WA: University of Washington Press.

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and Philip Mote. 2004. Climatic Change, Wildfire, and 

Conservation. Conservation Biology. 18(4): 890-902.

Mehringer, Peter J. Jr. 1997. Late Holocene Fire and Forest 

History from Lost Lake, Umatilla National Forest, Blue 

Mountains, Oregon. Document submitted to the USDA 

Forest Service, Malheur National Forest, John Day, 

Oregon.

Meidinger, Errol E. 1997. Organizational and Legal Challenges 

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F. Franklin, eds. Creating a Forest for the 21st Century: The 

Science of Ecosystem Management. 1997. Washington D. 

C.: Island Press. 361-379.

Omi, Philip N. and Erik J. Martinson. 2002. Effects of Fuel 

Treatments on Wildfire Severity. Western Forest Fire 

Research Center, Colorado State University. Final report 

submitted to the Joint Fire Science Program Governing 

Board.

Pfilf, Richard J.; John F. Marker and Robert D. Averill. 2002. 

Forest Health and Fire: An Overview and Evaluation. 

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Romme, William H.; Thomas V. Veblin; Merrill R, Kaufmann; 

Rosemary Sherriff and Claudia M. Regan. 2003. Ecological 

Effects of the Hayman Fire, Part 1: Historical (Pre-1860) and 

Current (1860-2002) Fire Regimes. In: Russell T Graham, 

ed. Hayman Fire Case Study. 2003. RMRS-GTR-114. 

Fort Collins, CO: U. S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 181-195.

Schmidt, Kirsten M.; James P. Menakis; Colin C. Hardy; 

Wendel J. Hann and David L. Bunnell. 2002. Development 

of Coarse-Scale Spatial Data for Wildland Fire and 

Fuel Management. RMRS-87. Fort Collins, CO: U. S. 

Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station.

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California Pine Forests. United States Department of 

Agriculture. Department Bulletin No. 1294. Washington: 

Government Printing Office.

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Hardesty. 1999. Historical Science, Heritage Resources, and 

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T. Sexton and A. J. Malk, eds. Ecological Stewardship: A 

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514 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The emergence of industrial life support systems in 

the last three centuries dramatically changed humanenvironmental relationships. Industrial landscapes are 

repositories of historical knowledge about this ecological 

revolution. The key components of industrial landscapes 

include landforms (for example, waste rock dumps from 

mines), industrial buildings and structures, vegetation and 

other biotic patterns, spatial organization such as settlement patterns, transportation networks such as railroads 

and canals, and small-scale components such as fences 

and mining claim markers. Industrial archaeology records 

the landscapes of “industrial islands” that cover geographical areas ranging from small local places to large 

regions or beyond. The geographical boundaries and 

organizational structures of these industrial landscapes 

vary in time. Historical events and processes that affect 

human-environmental relationships operate on multiple 

time and space scales. Such landscapes reflect the sensitivity of geographical places as a habitat for human 

occupation. Managing industrial landscapes, therefore, 

is an important pathway to preserving knowledge about 

the history of human-environmental relationships in the 

modern world.

Mining Landscapes and 

Changing Environmental 

Relations

Consider, for example, mining landscapes as repositories of historical knowledge about the impact of 

industrial life support systems upon human-environmental relationships. Mining landscapes often can be 

conceptualized as the physical expression of cumulative 

networks or mosaics of microenvironments that reflect 

changing human-environmental relationships. The Cortez 

mining district of central Nevada illustrates the evolution 

of a distinctive landscape in this way (Hardesty 1988, 

2001, Sullivan and others 1999). Several historical phases 

of landscape transformation can be identified. In the 

first phase, miners created the first microenvironments 

after the discovery of silver in the Cortez Mountains in 

1863. They included (1) the Garrison Mine in what was 

called the Nevada Giant Ledge; (2) a Washoe Process 

pan amalgamation mill, later converted to a Reese River 

Process mill, in nearby Mill Canyon; (3) pinyon-juniper 

woodlands on the western slopes of Mount Tenabo used 

to fuel the mill; and (4) Pleistocene Lake Gilbert in 

neighboring Grass Valley used to supply the salt needed 

for the milling technology. The Phase 1 network of human-environmental relationships came to an end when 

the mill closed in 1869.

The second historical phase of the Cortez mining 

landscape began in 1886 with the establishment of a 

new network of microenvironments. Simeon Wenban, 

one of the original Cortez prospectors, developed a new 

mine at the mouth of Arctic Canyon and constructed a 

new mill nearby that used what was then state-of-theart Russell leaching technology. Lime used in the new 

milling process led to the creation of a new limestone 

microenvironment nearby with an outcrop that could be 

quarried and processed into lime with kilns. The demand 

for wood as fuel at the new mill led to renewed harvesting 

of the pinyon-juniper woodlands. The Phase 2 network 

of microenvironments came to an end when Wenban’s 

mill closed in 1892.

In 1908, the third historical phase of the Cortez mining 

landscape began when a new mining company refitted 

Wenban’s abandoned mill with cyanide leaching technology and began to reprocess old mill tailings. Imported 

petroleum fueled the renovated mill and replaced the local woodlands. During this phase, Cortez miners, mostly 

lessees, dramatically changed landform patterns until the 

mill burned in 1915.

The Consolidated Cortez Silver Mines Company built 

a new mill equipped with cyanide leaching equipment 

closer to the Arctic mine in 1923, at which time the 

Cortez landscape entered its fourth phase of historical 

development. Tailings from the mill eventually formed 

a large tailings flow down slope about one mile to the 

valley floor. The mill changed to oil flotation technology 

in 1928 but closed the following year with the beginning 

of the Depression.

Not until 1969 did the Cortez mining landscape enter 

its fifth phase of historical development with the establishment of a new milling facility and the beginning of 

several open pit operations in and around the Cortez 

Industrial Archaeology, Landscapes, and Historical 

Knowledge of Sustainability

Donald L. Hardesty, University of Nevada, Reno
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 515

district. Cortez miners constructed, among other things, 

new heap leach pads, waste rock dumps, water pumps, 

haul roads, a refinery, assay office, administrative offices, 

and a carbon-in-column milling facility. This phase of 

development is still continuing.

Historical Knowledge and 

Resource Management

Mining landscapes as a repository of information 

about the history of human-environmental relationships have many implications for the management of 

natural resources. Consider, for example, what historical 

knowledge the Cortez mining landscape provides about 

the impact of mining upon local pinyon-juniper woodlands. The greatly increased demand for wood as fuel 

during the mining district’s second historical phase of 

development intensified clear-cutting and thinning of the 

woodlands. Archaeological and dendroecological studies 

of Cortez landscape elements such as cut stumps, mine 

supports, rail ties, stacked cordwood, charcoal pits, and 

cabin timbers yielded information that countered the 

common belief that this episode of deforestation permanently changed the woodlands in the district (Hattori and 

Thompsen 1987). The studies documented the continued 

survival of many trees from the most intense period of 

deforestation and provided information suggesting that 

the woodland reestablished itself after 1897, when new 

fuels and materials stopped local deforestation, and 

continued its growth, and possible expansion, to the 

present day.

In the same vein, a recent comparative study of the 

recovery of desert vegetation in two mining landscapes 

in Death Valley, California, provided historical knowledge about the sensitivity of plants to different soils and 

geological histories (Brown 2000). The discovery of base 

and precious metals in the valley in the first decade of the 

twentieth century brought about the emergence of several 

short-lived boomtowns that were abandoned within a few 

years. Recent studies of two of the town sites, Skidoo in 

the Panamint Range on the west side of the valley and 

Greenwater in the Black Mountains on the east side of 

the valley, show significant differences in the recovery 

of native desert vegetation. The desert vegetation at 

Skidoo is rapidly recovering after 70 years with a mix 

of short-lived colonizing plants such as cheesebrush and 

long-lived native plants like creosote. In contrast, plants 

have barely begun to recolonize the contemporaneous site 

of Greenwater. The different ages of the soils in the two 

places seem to be the principal reason for the differences 

in the rate of recovery of desert vegetation. Greenwater’s 

soil is at least 100,000 years old, but Skidoo grew up on 

a debris flow with soil less than 4,000 years old. Plants 

recolonize young soils, which are much coarser and 

resilient, faster than old soils.

The Social and Cultural 

Construction of Mining 

Landscapes

The historical knowledge contained in mining landscapes also reflects the social and cultural construction 

of human-environmental interaction. Mining settlement 

patterns in 19th-century Nevada, for example, reflect 

Comstock-Era ideas about the formation of gold-bearing ore bodies (Tingley and others 2003). The Comstock 

model visualized gold and silver-bearing ‘lodes’ that occurred within 500 feet of the surface. Miners for several 

decades after the Comstock discovery following this idea 

in searching for ore bodies and established mining camps 

accordingly. They completely overlooked the gold-bearing weathered silica ledges that did not conform to this 

model. The 1902 discovery of gold in this geological 

formation at Goldfield, Nevada, dramatically changed 

ideas about and created a new geological model that 

patterned mining settlement patterns for several decades 

afterwards.

The cultural construction of mining landscapes involves interpreting landscape elements (for example, 

buildings and structures, landforms) as symbols that 

evoke images and memories of the past. Such culturally 

constructed historical knowledge affects human-environmental interaction. The ideology of geomancy or feng 

shui as a component of Chinese culture and ethnicity is 

a good example. Feng shui is “an esoteric set of theories 

and practices ... used in China to probe the landscape 

and to discern from the irregularity and asymmetry of 

mountains and waters appropriate locations for human 

settlement” (Fan Wei 1992). Feng shui practices may be 

expressed in such landscape components as settlement 

patterns and include orienting buildings to face south, 

calm water in front, placement at the confluence of 

streams but not at branching streams, square dwellings 

and settlement layouts, and alignment of buildings on 

a north-south axis. Archaeological studies of Overseas 

Chinese buildings and structures often provide the only 

source of information about the practice of geomancy as 

an active agent in the formation of mining landscapes. 

Certainly the extent to which Chinese immigrants applied the principles of geomancy varied enormously 

and depended upon local conditions and expediency. 

Exclusionary laws and policies, for example, or economic determinants such as high land prices appear 
516 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to have limited the practice of feng shui by Overseas 

Chinese in some localities but not in others (Greenwood 

1993). Mining landscapes reflect these differences in the 

geographical arrangement and relationships of buildings 

and structures, clusters, and landforms.

The so-called “Myth of the West,” however, is perhaps 

the most classic example of the relationship between mining landscapes and the cultural construction of historical 

knowledge in twentieth century America. Mostly a creation of popular culture, the myth transforms abandoned 

buildings, structures, landforms, and other elements of 

historical mining landscapes into symbols of an imagined 

past, a theater of the wild, complete with all the trappings 

of “the western frontier” - tough and untamed with streets 

walked by six-gun toting white males, heroically good 

and bad, and soiled doves with golden hearts (Hardesty 

and others 1994). The Myth of the West, incidentally, 

also includes the idea of an empty wilderness untouched 

by human hands before Euro-American settlement, 

an idea often reflected in environmental management 

philosophies and practices in the American West. The 

archaeological record and other sources of historical 

knowledge (for example, oral tradition), however, document a long history of human settlement before European 

colonization of the region with a wide variety of impacts 

upon the environment.

Images of the mythic West are often evoked by the 

so-called western “ghost towns.” Typically the ruins or 

archaeological remains of abandoned mining towns, 

ghost towns are icons of the myth. The Bodie Mining 

District in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California 

offers a classic example. After a significant but shortlived boom period in the late 1870s and early 1880s, 

the silver mining district rapidly declined but continued 

to be worked off and on until the end of the twentieth 

century. The town of Bodie emerged as a popular ghost 

town in the early twentieth century that attracted tourists 

in automobiles and greatly changed human-environmental interaction and the meaning of the landscape to many 

observers (Delsyer 1999, 2003). Ghost towns such as 

Bodie teach the myth to visitors, not only through intentional interpretative programs but also through efforts 

to preserve the towns for posterity. The ghost town is a 

cultural construction that mobilizes public support for 

preservation and creates an historic significance much 

greater than would be justified by a more critical evaluation of its historical context.

Conclusions

In conclusion, mining landscapes are “historical 

analogs” of human-environmental interaction taking 

place over time periods of months to centuries that 

have significant implications for environmental management. They provide models of environmental change 

in the modern world that fill in the time gap between 

short-term or contemporary observations and long-term 

paleoenvironmental data. The components of mining 

landscapes provide detailed information about the history of human-environmental interaction that is both 

complementary to and independent of other sources 

of historical knowledge such as documents and oral 

tradition. Archaeological and other historical studies of 

mining landscapes have the potential to record detailed 

environmental histories of biota such as woodlands, 

stream drainages, and other hydrologic systems, and 

toxic waste such as mercury. Finally, mining landscapes 

provide information about how social and cultural constructions affect the history of human-environmental 

interactions.

References

Brown, Kathryn. 2000. Ghost towns tell tales of ecological 

boom and bust. Science 290(5489): 35-37.

Delyser, Dydia. 1999. Authenticity on the ground: engaging the 

past in a California ghost town. Annals of the Association 

of American Geographers 89(4): 602-632.

Delyser, Dydia. 2003. ’Good, by God, We’re Going to Bodie!’ 

Ghost Towns and the American West. In Hausladen, Gary 

J., ed. Western Places, Western Myths: How We Think 

About the West. Reno and Las Vegas: University of Nevada 

Press: 273-295.

Fan Wei. 1992. Village fengshui principles. In Knapp, Ronald 

G., ed. Chinese Landscapes: The Village as Place. Honolulu: 

University of Hawaii Press: 35-45.

Greenwood, Roberta.1993. Old approaches and new 

directions: implications for future research. In Wegars, 

Priscilla, ed. Hidden Heritage, Historical Archaeology of 

the Overseas Chinese. Amityville, New York: Baywood 

Publishing Company: 375-403.

Hardesty, Donald L. 1988. The Archaeology of Mining and 

Miners: A View from the Silver State. Society for Historical 

Archaeology Special Publication Number 6.

Hardesty, Donald L. 2001. Issues in preserving toxic wastes as 

heritage sites. The Public Historian 23(2): 19-28.

Hardesty, Donald L., Thomas Lennon, and Steven F. Mehls. 

1994. Historical archaeology and the myth of America’s 

wild west. Paper Presented at the World Archaeological 

Congress, New Delhi, India.

Hattori, Eugene, and Marna Thompson.1987. Using 

dendrochronology for historical reconstruction in the 

Cortez mining district, north-central Nevada. Historical 

Archaeology 21(2): 60-73.

Sullivan, Alan P. III, Joseph A. Tainter, and Donald L. Hardesty. 

1999.Historical science, heritage resources, and ecosystem 

management. In Szaro, R.C., N.C. Johnson, W.T. Sexton, 

and A.J. Malk, eds. Ecological Stewardship: A Common 

Reference for Ecosystem Management, Volume II. Oxford: 

Elsevier Science, Ltd: 493-515.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 517

Tingley, Joseph V., Thomas P. Lugaski, and Alvin R. McLane. 

2001. Discovery of mining camps in south-central 

Nevada. The Eighth Annual Journal of the Mining History 

Association: 18-29.
518 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The 170,000 km2 interior floodplain of the Middle 

Niger (Mali) is a tight mosaic of alluvial and desert 

microenvironments. The interannual to intermillennial 

climate change profiles of this fluvial anomaly thrust deep 

into the Sahel and southern Sahara are masterpieces of 

abrupt phase shifts and unpredictability. Response has 

been of two kinds. The Office du Niger was France’s 

largest colonial-period development project—and a 

failure of massive proportions. An older tradition of 

Social Memory allowed for the integration of increasingly-specialized producers and artisans in a generalized 

economy. High ethnic and corporate diversity grew into 

one of the world’s most original, purely indigenous urban 

civilizations.

It all went horribly wrong. And it had such vast 

potential for Colonial pride and for Metropolitan investment. At the southern fringe of the Sahara, in its colony 

of l’Afrique Occidentale Française (now the Republic 

of Mali), France undertook the most ambitious of the 

development schemes of all her colonies: the Office du 

Niger. Through massive technical investment and rational economic centralization, a long-dead palaeochannel 

of the Sahara was to flow once again. This was to be 

Africa’s Green Revolution, three decades before the 

Asian miracle.

As planned initially in the 1920s, the dam and 

canal system would annually inundate some 1.9 million hectares. Irrigated cotton would be transported to 

Mediterranean markets along a railroad of 3,270 km 

across the world’s largest desert. Imperial would forbid 

the drift of dunes across the tracks! And monocropped 

Asian paddy rice (Oryza sativa) would eliminate the 

“irrational” cultivation of the local floating rice, Oryza 

glaberrima, whose yearly yields ranged from 4,400 kg/

ha to barely subsistence levels. By the early 1930s, the 

Colonial authorities began to relocate, by brutal military 

operations, a projected 3.5 million southern peasants to 

this wasteland—in the process, breaking up traditional 

land-use and land-tenure—and substituting coercive 

sharecropping.

And the results? This was just the first of West Africa’s 

long, sad heritage of development debacles, particularly during the Sahel Drought. All such projects were 

predicated upon large acreage, monocropping, and capital-intensive earth-modification. Rather than 1.9 million 

ha put into irrigation, today there are fewer than 50,000 

ha, or 2.6 percent of projections. Rather than 3.5 million 

laborers, today there are less than 37,000, or just 1 percent 

of projections. The railway was never even begun.

What went wrong? Any reasonably-observant student 

of historical human ecology might have predicted defeat 

for the Office du Niger at the hands of a deep-time, local 

Social Memory. Social Memory is the long-term communal understanding of landscape and biocultural dynamics 

that creates a filtered perception of environmental variability, which ensures the curated knowledge of pertinent 

experience, and its intergenerational transmission. Social 

Memory enables the community to designate those of its 

members who have authority to act in times of stress. 

And its principal manifestation amongst the peoples of 

the Middle Niger is Ecological Resistance.

Ecological Resistance, a concept from historical ecology, is based on the recognizing that rigid, hierarchical 

decision-making structures are not always best positioned 

to deal with situations of abrupt, unpredictable climate 

and environmental change. Heterarchies can show 

greater resilience, a greater capacity long-term to deal 

with the attendant economic and social stresses. Under 

these circumstances, societies may develop persistent 

mechanisms of resistance to centralizing or coercive 

tendencies, those leading to hierarchy.

Ecological Resistance is written in the fluid concepts 

of landscape and ethnicity shared by the mosaic of ethnic 

and occupation groups of the Middle Niger. Ecological 

Resistance is inscribed also in the very ancient practice 

of “niche specialization within a generalized regional 

economy” that the archaeologist can read in the local 

response to several dimensions of ecological and palaeoclimatic risk endemic to the Middle Niger. This is 

risk in a landscape with, nevertheless, vast potential, if 

managed and massaged with Social Memory’s ecological subtlety.

This risk derives from a highly volatile climate—one 

with variability along several scalar dimensions and, 

hence, described as “quasi-chaotic” by frustrated development engineers. The Sahel is infamous for high 

interannual variability of precipitation in: (1) total 

rainfall; (2) onset of the rainy season; (3) rainfall for 

each particular month during the short monsoonal wet 

season, and (4) areal patchiness of the rains. Interannual 

Social Memory of Short-term and Long-term Variability in 

the Sahelian Climate

Roderick J. McIntosh, Professor of Anthropology, Rice University, Houston, TX
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 519

variability characterizes the annual flood (1) height, (2) 

staying power before evacuation, (3) date of arrival from 

the highlands of southern West Africa, and (4) timing 

and nature of the seasonal migrations and spawns of its 

rich fish load. Even variable temperatures over this vast 

evaporation basin and the deflating northeast trade winds 

of the dry months conspire to frustrate the considerable 

predictive skills of the Middle Niger’s specialized farmers, fisherfolk, and pastoralists.

The second dimension of variability is mode-shifts: 

impulsive changes of the central climate tendency, with 

a threshold beyond a previous normal range of variability to a new set of boundary conditions. In other words, 

“global” climatic trends may be initiated here by abrupt 

events and they may be accompanied by periods of high 

temporal instability. Mode shifts may be interdecadal or 

multi-decadal in scale—such as the Sahel Drought that 

began in 1968 and that continues today as a high oscillation episode. Or, modes may last centuries or even a 

few millennia, as documented in lake-levels.

Our last dimension of variability is the landscape 

itself. The Middle Niger is a tight mosaic of landforms 

and floodplain soils of descending bathimetric progression. But, because of the dramatic interannual variation 

in rains and flood, a Nono (ethnic group) plot of highyield African rice one year, may the next be used by a 

separate ethnic group, the Bambara, to grow flood recession sorghum, and during a future year of minimal flood 

it might be visited only by Fulani herds of cattle and 

small livestock. That is, the high variability of altitude 

(bathymetry), inundation-potential, and soil morphology 

invite a highly fluid concept of landscape. A particular 

microenvironment might theoretically redirect its seductions among five or six subsistence specialists within 

a decade—with inevitable potential for conflict when 

ethnic perceptions collide.

With over a dozen subsistence-defined ethnic groups 

in the Middle Niger, some conflicts are inevitable. But 

why has the floodplain historically not been a morass of 

bloodshed and conquest? What is the Social Memory 

of landscape that positively encouraged ethnic differentiation, elaborate niche specialization, and a shared 

commitment to a regional economy of reciprocity? Not 

only are fisherfolk divided ethnically into hand-net, shallow swamp fishermen, or deep-channel collective-net 

fishermen, or into the hunters of aquatic fauna such as 

crocodile, hippos, and giant Nile perch; not only can the 

fisherfolk absolutely count on the labor of rice farming 

Nono, Marka, and Rimaibe during the season of fish 

migrations; but also, the critical rituals of appeasement of 

the water spirits that obligatorily begin the deep-swamp 

fishing calendar of the Bozo can only be initiated by their 

Nono farmer neighbors.

Over deep time, there has developed an ethos of 

Ecological Resistance to a monolithic perception of 

landscape. This deep-time ethos encourages both niche 

specialization and a highly contractual web of surplus and 

labor exchange obligations. If diversification (broadening 

the subsistence system) and exchange (playing off temporal variability against spatial variability) are classic tools 

of risk-buffering, the peoples of the Middle Niger have 

gone beyond mere buffering to create a massive web of 

mutual aid obligations underlain by four the foundation 

stones of their Social Memory:

Critical Catalyst: The subsistence calendar of group 

“X” can only be activated by the scheduled ritual 

intervention of group “Y.” To try to short-circuit this 

tradition simply invites disaster.

Bonds of Fictive Kinship: Legends of common origin 

and rules of obligatory common labor (including an 

elaborate web of joking relations).

The template for these myths is an account, most likely 

fictive, of the sequential colonization of the floodplain, 

in which ethnic groups contracted with a hierarchy of 

occult guardians of prominent topographic features.

Undischargable Debt: Lore of extraordinary sacrifice by one group for another, under conditions of 

ecological stress, wrapping everyone in a fabric of 

expectations for future behavior.

Equation of Ecological Resilience with Resistance to 

any form of Centralization or Authority Monopoly: 

Locally, it is not considered to be at all remarkable that 

the 1,500 year archaeological record of urbanism, to 

date, shows no evidence of state formation, political 

or social hierarchy, or elites of any stripe.

What is impossible, of course, is to know how deep in 

time run any of these specific rules of ethnic accommodation. However, there is good proxy evidence that highly 

elaborated corporate identity and niche specialization are 

ancient institutions. We turn first to the best understood 

region of the Middle Niger, the vicinity of modern Jenne 

and its ancestral community, Jenne-jeno, where excavation and survey has gone on for some twenty years. 

Jenne-jeno is a six-meter high tell covering 33 ha, with 

evidence throughout a continuous sequence lasting from 

c. 300 B.C. to A.D. 1400. The Jenne-jeno sequence is a 

record of ever increasing numbers of specialists.

But more interesting is what we can say about the 

scores of satellite tells clustered near Jenne-jeno. Within 

a four-kilometer radius of Jenne, there are 69 such satellites, most if not all occupied simultaneously for up to a 

millennium. A complete surface recording of all 69 sites 

and preliminary excavations at 10 demonstrate some 

degree of corporate exclusivity at different mounds and 

of specialization in subsistence and craft activities.

1.

2.

3.

4.
520 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Beginning some 2,000 years ago, we have an emerging 

urbanism based upon clustering—that is, a segmented 

community of specialists who voluntarily come together 

to take advantage of the services of others and of a larger 

market for their products, but who maintain physical 

separation in order to reinforce their separate identities. 

Clustering—physical separation with proximity—facilitated the reciprocal relations with other specialists 

that bind together the Middle Niger ethic mosaic to this 

day.

So, clustering appears to have been a stable solution to the complementary ecological problems of the 

Middle Niger–specifically, a rich environment, but one 

highly variable in its rain and flood regimes. Elsewhere, 

environmental unpredictability disperses people, but 

here, many specialized artisan and subsistence producers link into a generalized economy. Clustering does not 

substitute, however, for other “extensive” strategies: (1) 

sowing more land (and more heterogeneous plots) than 

the farmer has labor to harvest (2.5 ha/person at 400 

mm., compared to 1 ha/person at 1,000 mm.) in order 

to anticipate spatial variations in rainfall or flood; and 

(2) mixing a variety of crops and grain varieties (42 of 

Oryza glaberrima) over a variety of micro-environments 

and along the bathymetric progression.

Settlement clustering is widespread over the 55,000 

km2 Middle Niger River Valley. Just how old are 

niche specialization and the values of horizontal 

complexity associated with it? Here we return to the 

senescent basin of the Office du Niger. Along the dry 

channels and distributaries of this “dead delta” are 

clustered early iron age communities of the mid-first 

millennium B.C. These are proto-towns of up to 33 components built atop Late Stone Age, clustered settlements 

going back into the second millennium B.C. Excavation 

at these sites is in its infancy. Yet, at Late Stone Age sites 

throughout the Middle Niger for which we can make an 

argument for contemporaneity, evidence suggests that 

specialist fisherfolk, pastoralists, and perhaps grain gatherers/early horticulturalists were purposefully living in 

separate hamlets, next to one another, at least seasonally. 

Pastoralists exchanged surplus meat for fish, and certain 

ritual items also passed hands.

Whatever the ultimate age of clustering and specialization in the Middle Niger, the values of Social Memory 

(especially Ecological Resistance) are arguably of 

considerable antiquity. An extremely fluid concept of 

landscape helped to turn endemic climatic stress into 

a culture of ethnic accommodation. These values were 

directly opposed to the Office du Niger bureaucratic 

belief in massive capital injection, monocropping of exotic crops, and homogenization of the landscape and the 

peasantry. The Office du Niger had no option but to fail. 

And in its place, the traditional Middle Niger remains, 

even thirty years into the Sahel Drought, the granary of 

West Africa.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 521

Systemic Shifts

Diverse global systems are degrading. Capra (1981) 

suggests that parallel degradation in diverse systems is 

symptomatic of a metacrisis; and that this degradation indicates the Earth is at a turning point that will profoundly 

affect human survival. Managing Human Dominated 

Ecosystems (Hollowell 2001) explored the recent shift 

of Earth from a self-managing ecosystem to a humandominated one, where humankind decides whether the 

Earth is managed in sustainable ways.

Humankind arrived at this turning point due to social, 

economic and technological shifts from people living 

largely within local economies and using relatively 

low-impact technologies to a global economy and highimpact technologies. Unfortunately, these shifts were 

accompanied by a paradigm shift to a false belief that 

humankind operates outside local limits and natural 

laws (Quinn 1995). These shifts replaced production 

and infrastructural systems that were, in many cases, 

interconnected with local and regional systems; with 

disconnected production and infrastructural systems 

that overpowered the regenerative capacity of natural 

systems. They degraded resources (air, land, water), 

reduced local and global capacity to sustain life and 

build natural capital, triggered decline in every living 

system on Earth (Brown 2003), and turned Earth from 

a self-managing global ecosystem to one that can no 

longer self-manage.

Resource-Balance Design and Monitoring: Assessing 

Sustainability of FSEEC-LandLab as BSU’s First Sustainable 

Built-site

J. L. Motloch, Professor of Landscape Architecture and Director of the Land Design 

Institute, Ball State University, Muncie, IN

Abstract—This paper addresses the change from earth as self-managing ecosystem 

operating within local limits and natural laws, to a human-dominated ecosystem where 

people falsely believe they live outside natural limits and laws. It reviews the shift from 

low-technology and regional-economics to advanced technologies and globalization 

whose impacts exceed nature’s ability to regenerate and that render the earth incapable 

of self-management. It calls for a shift from the present source-to-waste paradigm to 

one that promotes system regeneration; and for environmental management essential 

to a sustainable future.

The paper reviews major built-environment impacts; and the absence in the planning 

and design professions of defensible processes that interconnect decisions to the health 

and sustainability of local and contextual ecosystems. It also addresses the lack of recognized methodologies to assess whether “sustainable” planning and design decisions 

facilitate ecosystem regeneration or, conversely, degrade contextual ecosystems.

This paper presents a model for designing built-sites that seek to sustain ecobalance; 

and for monitoring ecosystem indicators to assess whether decisions achieve this 

goal. It reviews application of this model to the site of Ball State University’s proposed 

environmental education building and landlab green technology demonstration site 

(FSEEC-LandLab) as the university’s first proposed green built-site. This application 

includes: 1) resource-balance as an initial site decision management tool, 2) GIS database development to facilitate design that sustains resource-balance, 3) proposed 

management systems for the overall site and its built-zone, 4) a decision framework of 

built-site goals, objectives, and guidelines, 5) a proposed feedback system of ecological 

indicators, baselines, benchmarks, and monitoring to determine the degree to which 

site-based management, planning, and design sustain resource-balance, 6) initial indicators, monitoring hierarchy, and monitoring station locations, and 7) proposed initial 

resource-balancing projects to build and monitor.
522 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Needed Shifts

There is a profound need to co-manage natural and 

human systems for sustainable health and production, 

and for human survival. This includes a need to shift 

technology, production, and infrastructure from systems 

that consume and degrade resources to ones that sustain 

and help regenerate resources. There is a need to manage human impacts within the limits of natural system 

regeneration, and co-manage natural and human systems 

to produce a just world that enhances living standards 

for all. Global societies need to shift from economic 

systems that mine and consume resources to ones that 

harvest and sustain resources (Quinn 1995); and from 

economies that degrade to those that facilitate regeneration. Global societies need to embrace an eco-economy 

that uses principles of ecology to integrate decisions with 

resource life-cycle flows and sustains ecobalance so that 

environmental potential after intervention is at least as 

great as potential prior to intervention. Survival requires 

that we sustain environmental resources and the ability of 

living systems to regenerate the natural capital (Hawken 

and others 1999) upon which we ultimately rely.

Needed Built-Environment 

Shifts

Natural systems sustain themselves through regeneration and cyclical life-cycle resource flows. Elements 

partner to regenerate system health and capacity. Outputs 

from one process are inputs to another, and the system 

regenerates its capacity and self-manages its health and 

productivity. People intervene in these systems to use 

natural capital to address human needs, often through 

manufacturing and the provision of infrastructure, buildings, and cities. The way human and natural systems 

interconnect profoundly affects natural system capacity 

to address human needs and sustain the natural capital 

upon which people depend. In a sustainable world, human systems augment natural system regeneration, health 

and sustained productivity. In our present unsustainable 

world, human systems fail to support regeneration and 

excessively convert resources to waste.

Like other professions, physical planners and designers urgently need to shift from waste-producing 

paradigms to regenerative ones. They need to implement 

processes and integrate decisions to produce sustainable 

local and contextual ecosystems; and to monitor whether 

planning and design facilitate regeneration or, conversely, 

degrade ecosystems. They need to embrace regenerative design (Lyle 1994) so that products, infrastructure, 

buildings, and cities function as appreciative systems 

(Jantsch 1975) that help regenerate natural system health 

and productivity. Planners and designers need to pursue 

a positive ecobalance between pre- and post-intervention 

system health and productivity. They need to replace 

decisions that mine resources in consumptive, wasteproducing, chemically dependent ways; with decisions 

that promote sustainable harvesting, integration with 

resource life-cycle flows and regenerative dynamics, 

and impact mitigation.

Resource-Balancing Design for 

the FSEEC-LandLab

Methods, tools and datasets have been developed to 

integrate design decisions with resource flows (Odum, H. 

T. 1994; Peterson 1972; Fisk 1989) and to pursue ecobalance (Fisk 1997). Motloch reviewed some of these, the 

lack of integration of these tools into mainstream planning and design processes, and the need to implement 

design for regeneration and ecobalance (2001). Based 

on Fisk’s work, he proposed the Eco-balancing Design 

Model to integrate ecobalancing methods into physical 

planning and design (fig. 1). This model sought to extend 

conventional GIS databases and data analysis to inform 

land management, use, and planning decisions based 

on the ecobalance implications of decisions. The model 

includes GIS life-cycle data-maps and productivity maps, 

and eco-balancing processes (balancing upstream and 

downstream productive potential). It includes a feedback 

system of ecological baselines (existing conditions or 

performance levels), benchmarks (targeted conditions 

or performance levels), and monitoring of sustainability 

indicators to assess the degree to which interventions 

promote change toward benchmarks. This model was 

proposed as an information-flow system for confirming 

and evolving the degree to which planning and design 

decisions promote sustainability.

As a step toward campus design for ecobalance, 

Motloch (2002) conducted a Ball State University (BSU) 

CERES Fellowship to: 1) develop an integrated environmental management system for the University’s field 

sites, 2) generate a resource-balancing model adaptable 

to each site, 3) recommend a field site for the FSEECLandLab environmental education building and green 

technology demonstration lab, 4) adapt the resourcebalancing model into a decision management tool for 

the site, 5) develop a GIS database to facilitate analysis 

and decision-making, 6) recommend locations for the 

education building and green technology demonstrations, 7) propose a conceptual management system for 

the overall site and developed management system for its 

FSEEC-LandLab zone, 8) generate a decision framework 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 523

of planning and design goals, objectives, and guidelines 

for the FSEEC-LandLab and its environmental education 

building and site technology demonstration components, 

9) propose a network of environmental Indicators and 

stations to baseline, benchmark, and monitor to determine how site management, planning, and design move 

Indicators in relation to benchmarks, 10) propose an 

initial program of site-based demonstration and resourcebalancing projects to build and monitor, and 11) develop 

proposals for initial projects including designing, building, and monitoring the effects of interventions on site 

environmental health and productivity.

Integrated Property Management 

System

The study explored the BSU Field Station and its field 

sites as a single integrated education, research, demonstration, and outreach resource. It saw each site as an 

integral Field Station component as well as an individual 

resource. It sought to help the university manage each 

site for its value as an individual resource, contribution to 

the field station, and potential to enhance understanding 

of natural and human-dominated ecosystem regeneration and management. The Integrated Environmental 

Management System (IEMS) was proposed in this 

study to promote understanding of the potentials and 

management needs of each site based on its contextual 

relationships (urban to rural), site characteristics, land use 

needs, and allowable uses based on legal or other restrictions (fig. 2). The study also recommended baselining, 

benchmarking and monitoring environmental indicators 

based on site context, internal relationships, desired integration, and intended contribution to the University’s 

Figure 1. Eco-balancing Design Model (Introduction to Landscape Design, ed 2, J. Motloch, 2001, based 

on the Eco-balance GameTM and work of the Center for Maximum Potential Building Systems).

Figure 2. Integrated Environmental Management System 

(IEMS).
524 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

educational, research, demonstration, and outreach missions. It sought to facilitate monitoring to inform the 

University whether decisions sustain resource-balance. 

As better data and analysis techniques are developed, 

it will facilitate a shift from resource-balancing to ecobalancing decisions.

Resource-balancing Model as Site 

Decision Management Tool

The Resource-Balancing Model for BSU field 

sites (fig. 3) was evolved from the Ecobalancing 

Design Model (Motloch 2001, based on the Eco-balance GameTM and work of the Center for Maximum 

Potential Building Systems). The model integrates physical maps, productivity maps, and resource-balancing 

methods to facilitate sustainable decisions. It includes 

a feedback system of ecological baselines, performance 

benchmarks, and monitoring of environmental indicators 

to assess changes in Indicator performance in relation 

to benchmarks. This model is adaptable for each field 

site, in response to location, surrounding land uses, land 

use constraints, desired use, and site role in the IEMS. 

The Resource-balancing Model was recommended to 

predict outcomes of different alternatives, help the 

University make decisions and manage its field sites, 

and evolve future field site decisions based on Indicator 

feedback.

Planned Environmental Monitoring

The site recommended in the study for locating the 

FSEEC-LandLab includes diverse zones appropriate 

for its proposed environmental education building and 

green technology demonstrations. The site also offers 

opportunities for hands-on environmental education, 

research, demonstration, and outreach; and for integrated 

monitoring and management.

Previously planned monitoring

The site was selected, in part, to facilitate monitoring 

of environmental effects of several activities previously 

planned for the site including drainage improvements, 

creation of a wetland meadow, revegetation projects, and 

enhancement of regional biodiversity as part of the Field 

Station’s restoration and environmental education programs. The study sought to help the University achieve 

permanent monitoring stations for biotic and abiotic 

components of its field site ecosystems, for its monitoring education activities, and for environmental research 

(FSEEC 2002). It also addressed University plans for 

monitoring plots to facilitate study of successional 

changes within the site’s forested areas, monitoring of 

prairie plots to facilitate learning and research of different 

treatments in prairie restoration (for example, controlled 

burns, herbicide applications, machine treatments), and 

other site monitoring.

Figure 3. Resource-Balancing Model 

for BSU Field Sites (Evolved from 

Ecobalancing Design Model in 

Introduction to Landscape Design, 

ed2, J. Motloch, 2001, based on 

the Eco-balance GameTM and 

work of the Center for Maximum 

Potential Building Systems).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 525

Proposed additional monitoring

The project recommended additional site improvements and associated resource-balance monitoring. This 

included changing site landform to isolate on- and offsite runoff; and monitoring site hydrology in relation to 

changes in landform, off-site land use (including change 

from rural to suburban), and off-site hydrology. In the 

area of the proposed environmental education building and green technology demonstrations, it included 

landform changes to redirect off-site water around watersheds proposed for monitoring site-generated impacts; 

and recommendations for designing the built-site as an 

intervention, monitoring, management, and educational 

resource. It suggested placing the proposed building and 

site developments within the watershed of a proposed 

lake for fisheries research; and monitoring the ability of 

the built-site to be designed, built, and operated so its 

runoff helps sustain the health and productivity of the 

pond ecosystem.

Resource-balance assessment

The project recommended monitoring of environmental indicator performance before and after site adaptations 

including building and green technology construction and 

operation. It recommended simultaneously monitoring of 

changes in site- and context-generated impacts, and comparing on- and off-site changes over time as feedback to 

the environmental management system. It included recommendations for monitoring building and technology 

demonstration effects on existing and proposed wetlands 

and ponds, and the ability of wetlands and ponds to balance building- and technology-induced impacts.

GIS Database Development

Development of the site’s resource-balancing database began by integrating existing GIS datasets into a 

single geo-referenced database. This database was then 

extended to include additional data-maps (for example, 

wind and solar energy) and productivity suitability maps 

(for example, suitability for biomass productivity). The 

study proposed later addition of ecobalancing suitability 

maps (for example, suitability for carbon-balance considering O2 production and CO2 sequestering) subject 

to future funding.

Site Management

The project recommended the site be managed at 

two levels: overall-site and built-site. For the overallsite, the study recommended monitoring and mitigating 

the impacts of near-site changes, including changes 

from rural to suburban land use; and comparison of the 

impacts of on-site and off-site changes as the site undergoes sustainable development and near-site areas undergo 

conventional suburban development. It recommended 

integrated monitoring of Environmental Indicators before 

and after building and site interventions, to measure the 

effectiveness of the resource-balancing management 

system.

The study recommended that the area proposed to 

include the environmental education building, associated 

site development, and integrated building-site sustainable 

technologies be managed as a built-site. It recommended 

this built-site be managed for integrated research, education, and demonstration. It conceptualized an integrated 

built-site water-wastewater-energy-landscape system 

that would facilitate integrated management of resource 

harvesting, processing, use, reuse, regeneration and 

balancing.

Management Zones

Based upon contextual-landform and site-landform, 

and relative ability to isolate site areas from off-site water-borne pollution, the study structured the overall-site 

into seven management zones (fig. 4). It identified the 

ability of each zone to be isolated, managed, and monitored independently from off-site runoff for controlled 

research, education, and demonstration. Within each 

zone it identified drainage units and their opportunities 

for isolation from other drainage units for management 

and controlled monitoring purposes.

Overall site management and monitoring 

system

The study proposed environmental indicators within 

these management units. It proposed the Modified 

Resource-Balancing Model (fig. 5) as a conceptual management system for the overall site, with monitoring of 

general and habitat-specific indicators within each zone 

to assess the impact of decisions on resource-balance.

Resource-Balancing Management System for 

FSEEC-Lanllab Built-Site

The study recommended that the environmental education building be built within the drainage unit of the 

existing pond used by the University’s fisheries group 

(fig. 6). It recommended that off-site runoff be redirected 

around this unit. It recommended that the area below the 

existing pond be managed as a second drainage unit for 

integrated built-site water-wastewater-energy-landscape 

research, education, and demonstration. These decisions 

sought to optimize opportunities for integrated knowledge-based management informed by monitoring the 

changes induced by prior interventions.
526 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The Resource-Balancing Management System for the 

FSEEC-LandLab Built-Site Zone (fig. 7) recommended 

that Stella system dynamic modeling software (ISEE 

SystemsTM 2004) be used to predict Incubator performance. It recommended that once the University decides 

what areas, Indicators, and stations to monitor, that Stella 

be used to model anticipated Indicator performance under alternative management scenarios. It recommended 

monitoring of Indicators and comparison of monitored 

results to Stella-predicted performance to assess and 

evolve the design of the model and its dynamics (equations and performance curves), and to identify whether 

decisions to sustain resource-balance achieved this 

goal. It recommended fine-tuning the model and future 

management decisions based on monitored movement 

of environmental Indicators in relation to benchmarks, 

and based on insight provided by comparing monitored 

changes in Indicators to changes predicted by the model.

Figure 4. Site Management Zones and 

Hierarchical Water Monitoring Stations.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 527

Figure 5. Modified ResourceBalancing Model for FSEECLandlab Site.

Figure 6. Environmental Education Building Location and Drainage Units.

Built-Site Framework

The built-site planning/design framework—including 

goals, objectives, concepts, guidelines and standards 

—grew from the missions of the Field Station and 

Environmental Education Council (FSEEC) and the Land 

Design Institute (LDI). The framework grew within the 

context of the integrated environmental management system (IEMS) described above, and with an understanding 

of desired land uses and management. This framework 

pursued four goals. The first goal was multi-disciplined 

environmental education in natural and built settings 

for students of all ages. The second was to increase 

understanding of regional resources and human impacts. 

The third goal was to help lead society to a sustainable 

future; and the fourth was to optimize short-term and 

long-term potentials. The built-site framework sought to 

guide the planning and design of buildings, infrastructure, and demonstration projects and to integrate diverse 

activities, participants, and timeframes.

Zoned Green Technology Demonstration

The study recommended site demonstration structured 

into two zones (fig. 8). The Near-Zone included integrated 

water-wastewater-energy-landscape systems (buildings, 
528 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

shade structures, water walls, building extensions, living 

fences, landscape elements) with energy harvested by 

roof surfaces and water harvested by building and site 

surfaces. It included demonstration of biologic wastewater systems that restore water quality, and provide this 

restored water to landscapes that enhance performance 

of building and site passive energy systems. The study 

recommended that larger demonstrations (constructed 

wetlands, wet and dry prairies, agro-forestry) be located 

in the Far Zone.

Integrated Water-Wastewater-EnergyLandscape System (IWWELS)

The study recommended demonstration of builtsite integrated water-wastewater-energy-landscape 

systems that harvest, distribute, use, reuse, and return 

resources to the site. It recommended that the system’s 

Water-Wastewater Component (fig. 9) demonstrate how 

built-site systems can harvest, store, and distribute water 

for building and site use and reuse; collect wastewater 

and biologically restore water quality (living machines, 

rock-reed systems, constructed wetlands), and deliver 

restored water to the root zone of landscape components. It conceptually designed the Energy-Landscape 

Component (fig. 10) to demonstrate solar energy 

harvesting for building and site use, building bioclimatic benefits of soil saturated by restored water, and 

potentials to contribute harvested energy to the web. 

It recommended that the Landscape Component (fig. 

11) demonstrate how built-site systems can provide 

habitat for wastewater treating organisms, maintain 

desired soil conditions, convert nutrients in effluent 

Figure 7. Resource-Balancing Management System for Landlab Built-Site Zone.

Figure 8: Zoned Green Demonstration.

Figure 9. Water - Wastewater Component of IWWELS.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 529

Figure 12. Biogas - Energy Landcape Component of 

IWWEL.

Figure 10. Energy - Landscape Component of IWWELS.

Figure 11. Landscape Component of IWWELS.

into plant biomass, reduce building energy demands, 

and enhance building and site bioclimatic comfort. The 

Bio-energy-Landscape Component was conceptually 

designed to demonstrate how built-site systems can 

harvest biogas from human wastes while regenerating 

water quality (fig. 12). Recommendations for this component included a biogas harvesting system, biologic 

wastewater treatment system, and pond ecosystems that 

together harvest biogas, treat wastewater, and produce 

fish. The Solar Energy-Landscape Component (fig. 13) 

was conceptually designed to demonstrate landscape 

harvesting and use of solar energy. It also demonstrated 

how plants can contribute energy to building energy 

systems and the grid while producing functional, 

aesthetic landscapes. Integrated monitoring of the 

IWWELS was proposed as a means to assess performance of each component, to assess benefits that accrue 

to individual components and systems, to evaluate benefits due to the integrated nature of the systems, and to 

assess the value of integrated technologies to reconnect 

people to nature’s integrated systems.

Monitoring Within Management System

The proposed management system included recommendations for baselining, benchmarking, and 

monitoring overall and habitat-specific Environmental 

Indicators for the overall site and the LandLab Zone to 

assess whether site management sustains resource-balance. It recommended a hierarchical system of water 

monitoring stations, and station locations in relation 

to water management zones and drainage units (fig. 

4). It recommended that monitoring be integrated into 

academic, research, and demonstration programs; and 

that dynamic modeling software be used to model 

performance. It recommended that environmental 

Indicators be monitored and compared to baselines, 

benchmarks, and modeled performance to assess and 

evolve the model and to propose future land use and 

management decisions.

Monitoring of Habitat-Specific 

Indicators

The project included recommendations for monitoring 

habitat-specific Environmental Indicators. Recommended 

indicators were identified based on habitat types, typical 

Indicators for those habitat types, site conditions, and 

University land use and management needs. In recommending Environmental Indicators, this study benefited 

from an earlier report (FSEEC 2002) that assessed site 

habitat and potential Indicators. Figure 13. Solar Energy - Landcape Component of IWWEL.
530 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Habitat Benefits, Ecological 

Considerations, Recommended 

Indicators

The property recommended in this study for the 

FSEEC-LandLab includes a range of micro-environments and habitat. Each offers habitat-specific 

opportunities for hands-on environmental education, 

research, and demonstration. Each also provides management opportunities and constraints. For each habitat, 

this project recommended Indicators with potential to be 

monitored to assess change in relation to baselines and 

benchmarks. Interventions that result in Indicator movement toward benchmarks were deemed to be desired 

actions that help the university realize the educational, 

research, and demonstration potentials of site habitats, 

while sustaining these habitat.

Based on available information (FSEEC 2002), the 

study identified site habitat types, benefits of those types 

of habitat, and ecological considerations in managing 

those habitat types. Based on the FSEEC report, the 

study also identified development activities generally 

seen to adversely affect that habitat type’s health and to 

offer challenges to effective management of that habitat 

type. For example, benefits in wooded areas are generally understood to include carbon sequestering, nutrient 

recycling, reduced runoff, nutrient filtering from runoff, 

improved water quality, increased infiltration, sustained 

groundwater resources, stabilized soil, and wildlife 

habitat. Ecological considerations are generally seen to 

include successional increases in the interrelatedness 

of vegetation associations with climate, landform, soil, 

hydrologic regime, disturbance regime, and land use. 

These benefits are usually seen to be affected by the size 

and number of canopy layers; and by disturbances that 

affect ecological function (for example, fire, wind-throw, 

adverse changes in water regime, grazing, and pest outbreaks). Pressures that are usually expected as a result 

of development include forest fragmentation, increases 

in diseases and pests, atmospheric and runoff pollution, 

introduction of exotic species, and landscape disturbance 

by foot and motorized traffic.

Typical habitat-specific Indicators in wooded areas are 

usually understood (FSEEC 2002) to include Indicators 

of Fragmentation (ratio of woodland interior to total 

woodland area; indices of landscape fragmentation and 

connectivity), Biological Pressures (spatial extent of 

exotic species, pests, and diseases; population of grazers), Plant Community Health (extent and distribution 

of vegetative associations; density of snags and woody 

debris; extent and distribution of key plant species; ratio 

of vulnerable species to total forest dependent species), 

Atmospheric and Water Pollution (changes in sensitive 

species), Productivity (rate of tree growth indicated by 

number, volume, or diameter; population of key animal 

species in each tropic level), Nutrient Cycling (spatial 

extent of land with significant erosion; changes in soil 

thickness, compaction, density, structure), Hydrology 

(amount of storm runoff; time of concentration of runoff, 

percentage of stream length with vegetative barriers, 

width of barriers), and Disturbance (frequency of pest/

disease outbreak).

Through discussions with University faculty and field 

station managers, the study identified Environmental 

Indicators to baseline, benchmark, and monitor on 

the project site. These included overall-site and habitat-specific Indicators. Recommended Indicators were 

those seen as most likely to provide opportunities for 

monitoring to support management, educational programs, research, and demonstration of environmental 

change with alternative management. For example, in 

the site’s wooded areas, key site Indicators identified for 

baselining, benchmarking and monitoring included water 

quality, turbidity, BOD, and key chemical constituents 

(pH, nitrogen, salt) of runoff.

Initial Phased Demonstration 

and Monitoring

The study included a LandLab program for integrated 

technology demonstration to be implemented in phases. 

This program was designed to begin with low-investment ecological restoration and resource-balancing 

constructions and experiments. The study recommended 

phasing to more costly, complex and sophisticated hybrid 

technologies and systems. These more complex systems are anticipated to provide opportunities to harvest 

resources more efficiently, provide more sophisticated 

environments with greater control, promote positive 

resource-balance, and serve as benchmark projects.

Phased Construction of FSEEC-LandLab

Proposed Phase One education, research, and 

demonstration projects included establishing the site 

management system; initiating the program of baselining, benchmarking and monitoring at key Indicator 

stations; implementing low-cost ecological restoration projects; and implementing key design, build and 

monitoring projects. For example, the “FSEEC-LandLab 

Test Module” was designed to develop insight for future planning, design, management, and monitoring of 

FSEEC-LandLab facilities. Phase Two included design 

and construction of FSEEC-LandLab Core Facilities 

including the Environmental Education Building and 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 531

the Green Technologies Demonstration site. Phase 

Three included design and implementation of other 

buildings and site demonstrations (caretaker residence, 

dormitories, ancillary structures, and infrastructure) 

as a monitored resource-balancing FSEEC-LandLab 

demonstration campus. The study proposed integrated 

monitoring of the LandLab’s integrated water-wastewater-energy-landscape system (buildings, infrastructure, 

other interventions), monitoring of built-site harvesting of resources (energy and water), monitoring of 

building performance, monitoring of site conversion of 

built-site wastes to resources (including soil and biomass), and monitoring site Environmental Indicators 

to assess resource-balance. The proposed integrated 

monitoring and demonstration projects were intended 

to raise understanding and awareness of the resourcebalancing potentials of integrated built-site systems and 

regenerative technologies (greenhouses, rock-reed filter 

systems, wetlands, wastewater and washwater gardens, 

and so on).

Phased Monitoring, Baselining and 

Benchmarking

The study recommended that, as soon as possible, 

the University baseline and benchmark the most crucially-needed Environmental Indicators and stations. 

It recommended water quantity and quality as the first 

variables to be monitored. It recommended that the 

University implement its initial Environmental Indicator 

monitoring program and extend the site database through 

periodic mapping of Indicator performance.

Phased monitoring recommendation

The study recognized that monitoring can be costly 

and time-consuming. To help control costs, it included a 

hierarchical system of water monitoring stations (fig. 7) 

with essential and less-costly monitoring to begin pending more substantial institutional investment. It identified 

urgently-needed stations and recommended that these 

stations be immediately baselined, benchmarked, and 

monitored. These included stations for monitoring runoff 

entering and leaving the site and its major drainage areas, 

and runoff from the area planned for the environmental 

education building, green technology demonstration, and 

other areas of on-going and impending habitat establishment and ecological restoration projects. Since planning, 

design and construction of the building might take several 

years, it proposed designing and building a module for 

testing green building and site materials, technologies, 

and monitoring. This test module was proposed as a Selfcontained Workstation and Toilet with resource-balancing 

integrated systems (water-wastewater-energy-landscape) 

for research, education, and demonstration purposes. The 

study recommended monitoring performance of this test 

module in the drainage unit that will later receive the 

environmental education building and associated site 

development.

Implementing baselining

The project recommended that baselining of site areas be achieved prior to activities that induce landscape 

change. Since changes, in many cases, were already 

occurring or anticipated in the near future, it recommended baselining begin immediately on Level One 

water monitoring stations. It identified these baselines 

as highest priority due to on-going and planned changes 

in land cover and use, and the need to compare on- and 

off-site trends as these changes occur. It recommended 

the University commit to a location for the environmental 

education building and areas for major green technology demonstration. It recommended that the University 

determine baselines for key areas (including drainage 

units of planned buildings, and areas of on-going or 

planned habitat establishment and ecological restoration) 

to enable the university to monitor changes that occur 

in relation to building and landscape establishment and 

restoration.

Implementing benchmarking

The study recommended that the University benchmark Indicator performance at each monitoring station; 

and that these benchmarks be used to assess appropriateness of past site intervention decisions. It proposed 

that this feedback system also be used to inform future 

site activities. It recommended that processes for establishing benchmarks be participatory to promote broad 

understanding and attachment to these benchmarks as 

goals.

Implementing monitoring

Since monitoring of environmental indicators is a 

long-term, time-consuming, and costly venture, and 

competition for resources is severe, the study recommended the University identify concurrences between 

what can be monitored to enhance education (academic 

degrees, K-12 support, Globe International) and research 

programs; and what needs to be monitored to promote 

resource-balance. It recommended the University initiate 

a process to assess its educational programs (degree and 

non-degree) and research programs to identify potential 

synergies and associated monitoring. It recommended 

results of this process be used to design a sustainable 

monitoring program that facilitates resource-balancing 
532 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

site management while enhancing the quality of educational and research programs.

Benefits of Monitoring

The study identified benefits of monitoring to include 

Curricular Benefits of hands-on learning including 

monitoring of environmental Indicators to assess change 

over time and to predict the outcome of anticipated 

interventions. It suggested that the activity of monitoring environmental Indicators can enhance curricula in 

various disciplines and different types of learners. It 

identified benefits of monitoring activities as a means 

of connecting university students, K-12 students, and 

adult and community learners to sustainability. It 

also suggested Benefits to Research by strategically 

integrating the monitoring of research projects (including narrowly-focused ones) into this broader 

system of baselining, benchmarking, and monitoring 

Environmental Indicators. It suggested that this integration would allow focused research projects to assess 

performance at a deeper level based on better existing 

data, while allowing these projects to contribute to the 

ability of future research to do the same.

Integration of Monitoring, Research, 

Demonstration, Academic Programs

The study recommended that the university initiate an integrated study of the potential to implement 

the resource-balancing model on the proposed site. 

It recommended that this study integrate: 1) the ability of baselining, benchmarking, and monitoring of 

Environmental Indicators to enrich the University’s 

academic programs in various disciplines and audiences, 2) the potential for University classes, public 

school programs, and adult and community education to contribute to baselining, benchmarking, and 

monitoring in cost-effective ways that enhance learning, 3) the ways in which the system of baselined, 

benchmarked and monitored Indicators could enhance 

the potential, ability to implement, and benefits of 

research to various audiences; and 4) potentials of 

specific research projects to contribute to baselining, 

benchmarking, monitoring, and integrated resourcebalancing. Completion of this integrated study will 

allow the University to develop a program for integrating its field site management, education, research, 

demonstration, monitoring and resource-balancing 

programs.

References

Brown, L. R. 2003. Plan B: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and 

a Civilization in Trouble, W. W. Norton & Company

Capra, F. 1981. The Turning Point: Science, Society, and the 

Rising Culture. New York: Simon and Schuster

Fisk, P. 1989. “Metabolic planning and design: how healthy 

building could be the forerunner of healthy businesses, 

healthy cities and a healthy environment” The Annual 

Conference of the New England Solar Energy Association 

and the Quality Building Council.

Fisk, P. 1997. The Eco-balance Game: creating settings 

for sustainable communities. The Center for Maximum 

Potential Building Systems. Austin, Texas.

FSEEC 2002. January 15 draft Management Policies for the 

Cooper Field Area, Field Station Environmental Education 

Council, Ball State University

Hawken, P.; Lovins, A.; Lovins, L. H. 1999. Natural 

Capitalism: Creating the New Industrial Revolution. New 

York, NY, HarperCollins Publishers

Hollowell, V. C. 2001. Managing Human-Dominated 

Ecosystems Conference (editor), Missouri Botanic Garden 

Press, St. Louis, MO.

ISEE SystemsTM 2004. Stella software, education and 

research, www.iseesystems.com

Jantsch, E. 1975. Design for Evolution. New York: Braziller

Lyle J. T. 1994. Regenerative Design for Sustainable 

Development. New York: John Wiley & Sons.

Motloch, J. L. 2001. Introduction to Landscape Design, New 

York: John Wiley & Sons

Motloch, J. L. 2002. “Resource-Balancing Design for the 

Field Station and Environmental Education Center and 

LandLab (FSEEC-LandLab): BSU’s First Green Building 

and Built-site” Greening of the Campus V Conference, Ball 

State University

Odum, H. T. 1994. Ecology and General Systems: An 

Introduction to Systems Ecology. Niwot: University Press 

of Colorado.

Peterson, L. 1972. “Energy and Complexity in Planning” 

Architectural Design.

Quinn, D. 1995. Ishmael: [A Novel]. New York, Bantam 

Turner.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 533

Introduction

Sustainability for the Americas (SFTA) is LDI’s first 

regional initiative within this network. The SFTA’s 

pilot project, the US-Brazil Sustainability Consortium 

(USBSC), emerged in 2002 to include four universities 

and two community-based sustainability research-education organizations. It is funded by US and Brazilian 

departments of education (US-FIPSE and Brazil-CAPES 

programs). The USBSC is currently building its “education for sustainability” curriculum to include hands-on 

and web-based sustainability experiences and environmental monitoring science experiences. The USBSC is 

developing projects including environmental monitoring 

and interdisciplinary-international sharing of monitoring 

science knowledge. This second SFTA consortium, the 

North American Sustainability, Housing and Community 

Consortium (NASHCC), including 6 universities and 2 

community-based organizations, emerged in 2003. Its 

proposal is currently being reviewed by US, Canadian 

and Mexican departments of education (US-FIPSE, 

Canada-HRDC, Mexico-SEP). The NASHCC will 

include hands-on and web-based sustainability and environmental monitoring science experiences, monitoring 

projects, and interdisciplinary-international sharing of 

monitoring science knowledge. The LDI is facilitating 

emergence of other SFTA sustainability consortia and 

their environmental monitoring science dimensions. 

Knowledge from the USBSC, NASHCC, and SFTA 

Initiative will also inform sustainability consortia and 

environmental monitoring activities LDI is beginning 

to facilitate in other global regions.

Global Network of Regional 

Sustainability Partners

Through the agricultural and industrial ages, cultures 

moved away from living within resource flows and local 

limits, and pursued globalization instead of local integration. This produced environmental degradation, loss 

of community, and other symptoms of a metacrisis of 

disconnect (Capra 1984). Current global system breakdown is driving the move to sustainability that, in the 

U.S., includes recognition that key universities need to 

lead society to a sustainable future. In an effort to help 

society reconnect with flows and live within limits, the 

Land Design Institute (LDI) at Ball State University is 

facilitating emergence of a network pursuing innovation 

for sustainability; reconnection with local and regional 

physical, ecological, and human dynamics; community 

transformation; global-local partnering; and collaboration to enhance knowledge-flow about sustainability.

LDI Sustainability Consortia

LDI’s sustainability network includes a consortia 

network pursuing global-local partnering to integrate 

Sustainability for the Americas Initiative: Land Design 

Institute, Ball State University

J. L. Motloch, PhD, Professor of Landscape Architecture and Director of the Land Design 

Institute at Ball State University, Muncie, IN

Pedro Pacheco, PhD, Professor of Architecture, TEC de Monterrey (ITESM), Monterrey, 

Mexico

Eloy F. Casagrande Jr., PhD, Mineral Resources Engineering and Environment, Professor of 

Sustainable Development, Federal Center of Technological Education, Paraná, Brazil

Abstract—The Ball State University Land Design Institute (LDI) pursues ecologically 

and culturally sustainable land design through education, research, outreach, and 

demonstration. LDI seeks to lead communities (local, regional, global) to sustainable 

futures. It connects communities and sustainability experts to optimize education about 

land management, planning, and design for sustainability; and innovative monitoring 

approaches and technologies for measuring ecosystem implications of these activities. 

LDI is building its biome-based global network, including inter-national sustainability 

consortia, to enhance understanding of sustainability by sharing information and partnering to translate global calls for sustainability into regional agenda.
534 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

with local and regional dynamics. Environmentally, these 

consortia see global biomes, figure 1, as patterns of physical, chemical, and biological resources and dynamics 

into which they seek to integrate decisions. Culturally, 

consortia pursue decisions that integrate with cultural, 

socio-political, economic, and technological systems 

and dynamics. They realize that developed regions often 

sustain their lifestyles at the expense of distant ecologies 

and cultures, while people in developing countries often 

pursue markets in ways that destroy their local culture 

and lifestyle. Both contribute to global ecological and 

cultural system breakdown and, as resources dwindle, 

lead to conflict. LDI is building its biome-based consortia 

network, figure 2, to integrate with biome resource flows, 

sustain local and distant cultures, help people address 

their needs, and sustain the health and productivity of 

physical, ecological, and human systems.

LDI sees the Internet transforming information-flow, 

accelerating communication, and shortening distances; 

but often in ways that increase resource consumption 

and exclude poor people. Through BSU’s Global Media 

Network, LDI seeks to increase accessibility to IT, the 

knowledge society, and sustainability knowledge-flow. 

It pursues sustainability in emergent markets (as well as 

established ones), where poor people benefit from collaboration with industry, government, and international 

organizations that promote local solutions that improve 

living conditions, generate local employment, and avoid 

social and environmental problems (Pauli 1998). LDI 

develops partnerships among institutes, landlabs, and 

multi-sector entities to address local and global dimensions of sustainability. It promotes consortia members 

as regional nodes of sustainability information-flow 

and behavioral change (Ferguson and Motloch 1996) 

that connect people to sustainable relationships with 

resources, build regional sustainability agenda; and function as a global sustainability-implementing network that 

includes universities that promote a sustainable ethic, 

educate students to integrate solutions into contextual 

systems, and empower graduates to lead communities 

to a sustainable future.

U.S. Partners

Charter U.S. partners of this network include Ball State 

University’s Land Design Institute (LDI), the University 

of Texas at Austin’s Institute for Innovation, Creativity, 

and Capital (IC2), and the Center for Maximum Potential 

Building Systems (CMPBS). IC2 is a global innovation 

institute; CMPBS a global leader in sustainability; and 

LDI a builder of partnerships that apply innovation and 

sustainability expertise to identify solutions that integrate 

with local, regional and global dynamics to help regenerate the health and productivity of environmental and 

human systems. These partnerships seek to develop tools, 

identify low-impact regionally-appropriate methods, and 

implement facilities that demonstrate sustainability. To 

enhance information-flow and facilitate sustainability, 

LDI is partnering with IC2 and CMPBS to create international sustainability consortia.

Figure 1. Global Biomes.

Figure 2. Global Network of Regional LandLabs (from Motloch 

2003).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 535

International Consortia-Building

LDI is facilitating LDI-IC2-CMPBS partnering 

in multi-national consortia; and is networking those 

consortia into a global network. Non-US partners 

and their socio-political contexts are different in each 

consortium, and therefore the process of formation is 

unique. However, consortia tend to share four developmental stages: emergence, institutional commitment and 

seeding, implementation start-up and sustained implementation. To facilitate Emergence, LDI identifies and 

brings together people with experience as sustainability 

change agents into an intense visioning session (workshop, videoconference, or teleconference) that includes 

a search for fit, collective visioning, agenda setting, 

identifying potential projects; and partner commitments 

to work together to enrich the consortium’s sustainability 

agenda and project list. Partners also agree to pursue 

Institutional Commitment and Seeding funds from their 

institutions. Institutional commitment usually includes 

Letters of Intent and Memoranda of Understanding. 

Institutional seeding usually includes funding to visit 

partner facilities, meet administrators, review existing 

curricula, identify opportunities for sustainability curricula, sign formal inter-institutional agreements, visit 

benchmark projects and potential consortium projects, 

meet with potential community partners, develop locally-appropriate strategies for leading communities to 

sustainability; build community awareness of issues and 

potential projects; and generate proposals for mid-term 

funding. Consortium enter Implementation Start-Up by 

receiving multi-year academic and/or project funding that 

allows partners to meet regularly, implement sustainability curricula, complete short-term projects, and pursue 

long-term funding (based on track record of short-term 

projects). Consortia achieve Sustained Implementation 

upon receipt of long-term or over-lapping mid-term academic or project funding to sustain the consortium and 

lead society to a sustainable future (funding in-place for 

four years; funding targeted for ten years).

Sustainability for the Americas

Sustainability for the Americas (SFTA), the first 

regional group of this global consortia network, figure 

3, promotes innovation and sustainability that connects people, ideas, and resources. Its first consortium, 

the US-Brazil Sustainability Consortium (USBSC), 

emerged in May 2002 and entered implementation 

start-up with receipt of four-year funding in June 

2003. The second consortium, the North American 

Sustainability, Housing, and Community Consortium 

(NASHCC) emerged in October 2003 and received 

four-year funding in August 2004. The USBSC and 

NASHCC are pilot consortia of the SFTA, which is 

the pilot program for the LDI’s global sustainability 

network.

Parallel Academic and Project Funding

Members of SFTA consortia have agreed to pursue 

parallel academic and project funding as the strategy for 

consortia funding. This includes internal consortium seed 

funding, academic and short-project start-up funding, and 

major projects for sustained consortium funding

Nested Sustainability Curricula

As part of four-year funding by the Departments of 

Education in all four countries (US, Brazil, Mexico, 

Canada) both the USBSC and NASHCC have committed 

to a nested sustainability curricula at consortia universities, to be delivered using a range of methods (Internet, 

visiting lectures, local classrooms, virtual classrooms, 

projects, field experiences, and others). This curricula 

has four levels. Level 1, an Internet-based Introduction to 

Sustainability Core Course, addresses interrelationships 

of ecology, environmental ethics, and environmental 

economics in managing, planning, and designing sustainable solutions (in the case of the NASHCC there is 

also an Introduction to Housing and Community core 

course). Level 2 is a series of hands-on and web-based 

Workshops (resource-balancing, systems dynamic modeling, GIS, sustainable economics, etc.). Level 3 consists 

of hands-on and web-based courses and practical experiences applying sustainability knowledge and skills in 

academic projects leading to Sustainability Certification. 

Level 4 is future development of Degree Extensions or 

Cognates. Graduates of the certificate program can work 

as interns on anticipated projects that help lead society 

to a sustainable future.

Figure 3. Emerging Suitability for the Americas Network.
536 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Commitment to Collaboration

Organizations that work together use at least six 

different types of partnerships: monopoly, parallelism, 

competition, cooperation, coordination, and collaboration (Cervero 1988). These six types differ in their degree 

of interdependence among organizations. Collaboration 

is the most interdependent and most widely used by 

organizations dealing with social and environmental 

programs. Collaboration builds the highest levels of 

commitment and perceived authorship of decisions by 

all members. The SFTA is committed to collaboration 

as its operational model as a consortium and in its community projects.

U.S. Brazil Sustainability 

Consortium

The USBSC facilitates sustainability through collaborative knowledge-building and knowledge-sharing among 

university, public, and private sectors. U.S. partners are 

Ball State University (BSU), the University of Texas 

at Austin (UT), and the Center for Maximum Potential 

Building Systems (CMPBS). Brazilian partners are the 

Federal Center of Technological Education – Parana 

(CEFET-PR), the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio 

Grande do Sul (PUC-RS), and the Technology Institute 

of Parana (TECPAR).

Sustainability Leadership

The USBSC integrates and expands knowledge networks. It integrates four universities with sustainability 

leadership, a State-level sustainability agency, and a 

community sustainability not-for-profit. By accessing 

the knowledge networks of its members, the USBSC 

can partner with experts and access information in both 

countries and globally. By partnering with local, national, 

international experts, building accessible knowledge 

networks, and committing to local and biome-based 

information-flow, the USBSC can help lead societies to 

a sustainable future.

Sustainability Processes, Tools, 

Techniques, and Projects

The USBSC seeks to apply existing, and develop 

new, sustainability processes, tools, techniques, and 

projects for enhanced flow (resource, energy, capital, 

information) to all people to promote stable relations, 

community attachment, and integration with complex 

contextual systems (Ramina 2003). It seeks to identify, 

create, and implement integrative tools and technologies 

including industrial ecology, ecological footprinting and 

ecobalancing techniques, and sustainable land use and 

project planning and design (Fisk 2003). It seeks to create 

and implement tools and techniques that educate through 

collaboration, build social and psychological contracts 

and link people, and place through sustainable decisions 

(Pacheco 2003). The USBSC partners to develop and 

implement tools and techniques that promote regionallyappropriate, socially-equitable, and economically-viable 

interventions in complex ecological, physical and cultural 

systems; and projects that facilitate sustainability education, monitoring science, research, and demonstration 

(Motloch 2003).

Monitoring Processes, Tools, and 

Techniques

During its seeding and start-up implementation, the 

USBSC has begun to identify its program of monitoring 

processes, tools, techniques, and Brazilian and U.S projects at a range of contexts and scales.. At the Site Scale, 

U.S. projects include proposed integrated environmental 

monitoring at predefined strategic control points within 

an ecobalancing feedback system for making sustainable land management, use, and planning decisions on 

a BSU field station site, figure 4 (Motloch 2004). This 

project includes life-cycle based data-mapping (for example, incident radiation, biomass), productive potential 

mapping (for example, food, energy, clean air, material 

resources.), ecobalancing methods (balancing upstream 

and downstream productive potential), and a feedback 

system of ecological baselines, performance benchmarks, and environmental monitoring of sustainability 

indicators to assess site changes in relation to baselines 

and benchmarks. This ecobalancing design model (information-flow system, environmental monitoring, and 

comparison of environmental performance in relation to 

benchmarks) is proposed as a process for confirming the 

efficacy, and desired evolution, of planning and design 

decisions that seek to implement sustainability.

Potential site scale projects in Brazil include a casestudy that addresses Brazilian Environmental regulations 

that require large enterprises that could have environmental or social impacts to obtain an operation license, 

granted only after local Environmental Agency approval 

of an Environmental Impact Assessment-EIA. Although 

basic guidelines have been identified for conducting the 

EIA, methods have not been established to guarantee that 

proposed monitoring considers synergy of all potential 

impacts. On-going research seeks to develop a simple 

GIS-based tool that permits consideration of all potential 

impacts at predefined strategic control points. This casestudy is within an Atlantic Forest biome conservation unit 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 537

currently affected by severe nearby mining activities. 

Data (water, soil and air quality, forest integrity, infrastructure and built surroundings, and socio-economic) 

are being collected, quantitatively and qualitatively 

assessed, and ranked (minor to highly impacted). Using 

simple GIS database facilities, data will be examined in 

synergy and areas (defined by points) submitted to easily 

conduct correlation analyses that allow simultaneously 

assessment of several impacts. This method assists in 

identifying the cause and nature of impacts and contributes to identification of areas of risk. It is believed that 

impacts can be categorized according to different levels 

of disturbance detected. The inclusion of socio-economic 

data is aimed to develop a coupled socio-environmental 

understanding. This is believed to represent the basis for 

the identification of Indicators that could support future 

development initiatives and decision making at the local level. This methodology enables the collaboration 

of specialists from different areas, facilitates decisionmaking, and gives a systemic perspective to definition of 

strategies for implementing environmental interventions. It is also a cost-effective tool for implementing 

monitoring to understand the sustainability of existing enterprises. It is anticipated the method can be disseminated 

and improved by international interactions proposed by 

the USBSC via a blended Web-Based Training (WBT) 

approach where students and professionals communicate, 

discuss the case-study, and learn through the Web and 

once a year meet face-to-face in one partner’s country to 

visit sites where the method is being tested.

At the Regional Level, the USBSC is proposing that 

a similar method be applied to assess possible development scenarios for the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba 

in the State of Paraná. The area is of interest due to its 

fragile limestone geological structure and because the 

water caption reservoirs of the city are located nearby. 

Strategies to conduct this study include: 1) understanding the ecological function of that landscape using GIS 

techniques and local expertise, 2) understanding the 

impacts of existing regional economic activities such as 

Figure 4. Ecobalancing Design Model (Introduction to Landscape Design, ed2, J. Motloch, 2000) Based on 

Ecobalance GameTM (CMPBS) and Ecobalancing Work of CMPBS.
538 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

limestone extraction and agriculture, 3) exploring organic 

agriculture as a potentially sustainable economic and 

social regional strategy, and 4) establishing a monitoring 

plan for organic farming based on environmental and 

social Indicators. Variables and specific aspects within 

these two sets of Indicators can be assessed quantitatively 

or qualitatively in different combinations. This study 

could define parameters for monitoring the sustainable 

performance of strategies and correct implementation 

methods considering ecological and socio-economic 

aspects. It can include case-study projects where monitoring techniques, land design, and alternative technique 

models are implemented and tested, and results are 

assessed and information disseminated as options for 

regional development

At the regional scale the USBSC also envisions 

multi-biome and multi-national studies. For example, 

the USBSC and NASHCC (see below) are proposing a 

Brazil-Mexico-US bamboo research project that includes 

monitoring bamboo growth, water quality enhancement, 

impacts of alternative product manufacture, bamboo treatments to resist insects and fungus, and so on. Proposals 

are being developed for components of this integrated 

research in ways that facilitate integrated monitoring 

and comparative assessments in different biomes. Also, 

income generation for poor communities engaged in the 

bamboo technology should be in the guidelines of the 

projects. The CEFET-PR is developing a pilot project in 

the Metropolitan Region of Curitiba where 30 families 

will benefit from 6 years of research. The bamboo project is financed by a private bank through its social care 

external policies (Casagrande Jr. 2004).

At the Global Scale, the USBSC could document and 

exchange ideas about hands-on experiences that could 

be used to build a database of successes and difficulties 

that could be widely accessed and promoted by the use 

of IT facilities. These case studies could be the basis of 

Web-Based Training (WBT) materials that could be built 

into the education for sustainability dimensions of the 

network of sustainability consortia and BSU’s Global 

Media Network.

USBSC as Proof of Concept

As pilot study of the SFTA and global sustainability 

consortia network, the USBSC provided “proof of concept.” Rapid movement through emergence and seeding 

and into start-up implementation spoke to the ability to 

incubate sustainability consortia. Its nested curriculum 

and integrated academic-project approach offered opportunities to advance sustainability throughout the 

universities involved and their contextual communities. 

The web-based Introduction to Sustainability course offered potential for students within and outside USBSC 

institutions. During emergence and start-up, the USBSC 

identified more than 30 potentially fundable communitybased projects including information-flow, curricula, 

ecological sustainability, social sustainability, community development, green demonstration, integrated 

energy systems, learning games, and information-dissemination projects. This list continues to grow and to 

serve as excellent community service projects for courses 

in sustainability curricula of USBSC member institutions 

as well as projects for which to pursue funding.

North American Sustainability, 

Housing and Community 

Consortium

Based on USBSC successes and with North American 

partners with a somewhat broader agenda, LDI facilitated 

emergence of the North American Sustainability, Housing, 

and Community Consortium (NASHCC). U.S. members 

are the same as the USBSC: Ball State University (BSU), 

The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the Center 

for Maximum Potential Building Systems (CMPBS). 

Mexican partners are the Autonomous University of 

Mexico (UNAM), TEC de Monterrey (ITESM) and 

the Group to Promote Education and Sustainable 

Development (GRUPEDSAC). Canadian partners are 

McGill University and Dalhousie University.

NASHCC Evolution

LDI facilitated NASHCC emergence by including 

its future TEC member in all USBSC activities. The 

NASHCC emerged in fall 2003, as a BSU-TEC-McGill 

led consortium with an expanded vision of sustainability, housing, and community. NASHCC seeding began 

even before all members were on-board. BSU and TEC 

provided support based on USBSC success and a history 

of the future NASHCC partners working together on 

projects. These BSU and TEC partners met on numerous 

occasions in the U.S., Mexico and elsewhere from May 

2002 to April 2004, pursuing multiple agenda. During 

this time, BSU and TEC committed to enhancing their 

curricula with interdisciplinary richness in the areas of 

sustainability (environmental, social, economic), dignified housing, and community. Additional consortium 

partner institutions were identified based on past partnering of faculty within those institutions. BSU and TEC 

approached McGill University and with McGill invited 

Dalhousie University. UNAM was identified as the 

sixth university partner. The full team adopted parallel 

academic and project funding strategies; and conceptualized a sustainability, housing, and community curriculum 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 539

with international courses and practical experiences 

that plug into degree programs to address institutional 

and program needs. With receipt of FIPSE-SEP-HRDC 

funding, NASHCC entered Implementation Start-up. A 

number of projects (mainly U.S. and Mexican) have been 

identified. In Fall 2003 and Spring 2004, BSU and TEC 

partners worked on a number of these projects together 

and with their students. During the upcoming year LDI 

envisions interconnecting the USBSC and NASHCC in 

projects that involve U.S., Mexico, Canada and Brazilian 

faculty, students, and communities.

Sustainability, Housing, and 

Community Processes, Tools, 

Techniques, and Projects

Like the USBSC, the NASHCC applies existing, and 

develops new, sustainability processes, tools, techniques, 

and projects for enhanced flow, increased accessibility, and integration with complex contextual systems. 

It seeks to identify, create, and implement integrative 

tools and technologies that educate about sustainable 

interventions in complex ecological, physical and cultural systems; and projects that facilitate sustainability 

education, research, and demonstration. With its broader 

agenda – sustainability, housing, and community – the 

NASHCC is also committed to accessing, creating, and 

implementing housing and community development 

processes, tools, techniques, and projects. This includes 

emphasis on multi-sector and inter-agency collaboration and International Collaborative Partnerships (ICP), 

figure 5, that partner residents, government, the private 

sector, NGOs, and educational institutions on community projects. It sees ICPs offering opportunities for 

not-for-profit and for-profit organizations to partner to 

exchange information, expertise, and dollars. ICPs also 

provide opportunities for community to partner with the 

NASHCC to access its network of universities, not-forprofits, and agencies, and together partner with industry 

in inter-agency learning laboratories where each partner 

contributes knowledge to identify solutions.

Monitoring Sustainability, Housing, 

and Community Processes, Tools and 

Techniques

As the NASHCC enters implementation start-up it is 

beginning to identify monitoring processes, tools, techniques, and projects at a range of scales and contexts in 

the U.S., Mexico, and Canada. Some of these, like the 

Brazil-Mexico-US bamboo research project mentioned 

above are multi-site projects in different environmental 

and socio-economic contexts. It is anticipated that these 

will present many challenges to identify and monitor 

Environmental and Social Indicators in ways that respond 

to local contexts, promote community attachment, and 

provide quantitative and qualitative results that can be 

assessed for comparisons of performance in different 

environmental and socio-economic contexts.

Many of the projects that have been identified by the 

NASHCC are capacity-building projects in the area of 

sustainability, housing, or community. For these, monitoring will be essential to quantitatively and qualitatively 

assess performance and trends in relation to baselines 

and benchmarks.

As the NASHCC develops its agenda of site, regional, 

and global scale projects, it will benefit from, and in 

many cases interconnect with, monitoring projects of 

the USBSC. At the Site Scale, it can link with Ball State 

integrated environmental monitoring at predefined strategic control site locations as part of the field station 

site’s ecobalancing decision feedback system (Motloch 

2003A). It can include projects that address US, Mexican, 

and Canadian regulation of environmental and social 

impacts, agency approvals of impact assessments, 

and guidelines and methods for monitoring potential 

Figure 5. International collaborative partnership (Modified from 

Pacheco, 2003).
540 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

impacts. The NASHCC can include case-study monitoring projects of existing and alternative land uses and 

technologies using methods that easily and effectively 

identify multiple impacts, the nature of these impacts, and 

areas of risk. It can embrace collaboration of specialists 

from different areas taking a systemic approach to define 

and implement intervention strategies. It can implement 

cost-effective tools for monitoring sustainability, housing, and community performance of existing, anticipated, 

and implemented conditions. It can promote information 

dissemination to all relevant populations and blended 

Web-Based Training (WBT) where students use the Web 

and NASHCC members visit monitoring sites in the US, 

Mexico, Canada (and Brazil and elsewhere).

At the Regional Level, the NASHCC can develop 

understanding of the ecological function of regional 

landscapes using GIS and other techniques and local expertise. It can assess the impacts of alternative 

regional economic activities and identify potentially 

sustainable economic and social regional strategies. 

It can assess environmental and social Indicators and 

establish monitoring plans for alternative regional land 

uses based on these Indicators. The NASHCC can include 

quantitatively and qualitatively assessments of Indicators 

and definition of parameters for monitoring sustainable 

performance and defining best implementation practices 

considering ecological and socio-economic aspects. 

It can include case-study projects where monitoring 

techniques, land design, and alternative models are 

implemented, tested, and disseminated as options for 

regional development Like the USBSC, the NASHCC 

can envision multi-biome and multi-national studies like 

the Brazil-Mexico-US bamboo research project program 

mentioned above that include monitoring plant growth, 

water quality, and the impacts of bamboo treatments, 

product manufacture, and so on.

At the Global Scale, members of the NASHCC and 

USBSC are pioneer partners in the North American and 

South American portions of the SFTA. These partners 

include universities that can serve as regional portals for 

web-based teaching about sustainability, housing, and 

community. These pioneer partners and future consortia 

members can lead efforts to document, exchange ideas 

about hands-on experiences, and participate in building databases of successes and difficulties; and widely 

disseminating this information via networks, including 

IT, that are accessible to all. As they do, monitored case 

studies projects will be essential in database development 

and program assessment including web-based teaching 

about sustainability, housing, and community.

Lessons From the SFTA

The following are some of the lessons we have learned 

already from the SFTA. They include lessons about sustainability and lessons about monitoring.

Observations about Sustainability

From years of individual work in sustainability and in 

the short time that we have been partnering in the SFTA, 

several observations can be made.

Place-based definitions of sustainability

Brundtland said that sustainability is a global concept that must be implemented locally (1987). Each 

culture has a world view through which they define the 

problems of existence and strategies for coping and addressing these problems; and through which they create 

socio-political and physical manifestations to address 

these problems. (Beck and Cowan 1990). Throughout 

the world many people talk about sustainability in terms 

of the Triple Bottom Line: ecological responsibility, 

social equity, and economic viability. They contend that 

all three must be met for sustainability; and they seek 

to achieve balance among the three. Partnering among 

sustainability experts in developed and developing countries and with people in communities in these different 

contexts reveals that this balance is seen very differently in developed and developing countries. People in 

developed countries who promote sustainability speak 

of the Triple Bottom Line but tend to focus primarily 

on environmental responsibility. People in developing 

countries who promote sustainability speak of the Triple 

Bottom Line but focus much more on social equity. The 

divergence is even greater in the general populations 

than in the population of sustainability experts, a disproportionate number of whom have studied formally 

in universities in the developed world where instructors 

generally teach based on the world view of developed 

countries.

Data and decision-making

At any given time and place, assessment of sustainability is based on available data; and the nature of data 

varies significantly among SFTA contexts. For any 

specific project, the SFTA can assess sustainability at 

levels appropriate to available data. When feasible, SFTA 

consortia can pursue projects to develop data to allow 

more sophisticated analysis. For example, the sustainability of product manufacturing can be assessed using 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 541

Input-Output Life Cycle Assessment (I-O/LCA) methods 

only if all data on inputs and output are available for each 

sector. In most SFTA partners adequate data does not exists for true input-output analysis. In this case, one SFTA 

project could conduct process-level LCA, based on levels 

of data available, rather than true I-O/LCA. Another 

project could assess available datasets; and to the degree 

allowed by existing data, develop best guesses of sector 

impact rankings. It could suggest what industries might 

be most problematic and suggest these for improvement. 

Within a targeted industry, it might also identify those 

areas where maximum impact might be expected to occur as potential targets to address for maximum potential 

benefit. Another project might identify the scale and type 

of data needed to assess sustainability at the next level. 

This could motivate funding to develop the scales and 

types of data necessary and then initiate true I-O assessment based on this data.

Environmental and social indicators

There is a major need for Environmental and Social 

Indicators of sustainability that are widely embraced as 

“good” Indicators. Agencies seek consistent Indicators, 

so they can manage consistently among different projects and so that they will be confident that Indicators 

used on a given project are widely perceived as being 

appropriate. Researchers, especially those involved with 

parallel projects in different biomes and socio-economic 

and political contexts need consistent Indicators for 

reasons of data comparisons among these projects. On 

the other hand, environments and people vary regionally 

and locally; and for Indicators to be implemented local 

communities must embrace these Indicators and implement decision that respond to them. SFTA International 

Collaborative Partnerships (ICP), using collaboration 

(most interdependent form of partnering), can build the 

sense of commitment and authorship of decisions in diverse sectors of the society necessary for the community 

to embrace Environmental and Social Indicator sets that 

include Indicators that allow agency management and 

research interpretations, as well as Indicators that build 

local multi-sector attachment. These ICPs can engage in 

projects to identify Environmental and Social Indicators 

and recommendations for processes that promote decisions informed by these Indicators.

Suggestions for Monitoring

Based on our experiences to date, we have the following observations about anticipated monitoring science 

opportunities and challenges.

Challenges of different definitions of 

sustainability

As the USBSC, NASHCC and future members of 

the SFTA share their views and partner in sustainability 

projects, we anticipate that place-bound definitions of 

sustainability will be challenged. This challenge will be 

most direct in projects that compare case-studies in the 

different cultures (like the Brazil-Mexico-US bamboo 

project), where results need to be correlated for different 

sites in different biomes and socio-economic-political 

contexts. This will raise many monitoring science challenges in each context. Also, researchers in developed 

countries and developing countries will be challenged 

to monitor environmental and social issues (sometimes 

including upstream and downstream impacts) they may 

not have previously monitored. They will need to do so 

with quantitative and/or qualitative methods recognized 

as valid by the scientific communities in both contexts. 

Developing methods that will meet these challenges can 

best be achieved by SFTA ICPs committed to collaboration as the type of partnering, as the ones suggested by the 

Atlantic Forest and Urban planning Brazil-US project.

Data and decision-making

The monitoring science challenges introduced by 

cross-biome and cross-cultural research are compounded 

by the additional challenges of different available type 

and nature of data in specific SFTA operational environments Where the types and nature of data are inconsistent 

the SFTA can propose monitoring projects to complete 

missing data to allow assessment at the next highest 

level. Where industries that might be most problematic 

are identified and suggest for improvement, case-study 

projects can be monitored. When areas with maximum 

impact are identified within these industries, monitoring 

programs can assess actual impacts and alternatives for 

anticipated maximum benefit.

Environmental and social indicators

Once Environmental and Social Indicator are established including consistent Indicators and project-specific 

ones, and these Indicators and baselined and benchmarked, case-study monitoring is needed to validate 

these as “good” Indicators. To do this, protocols will 

need to be developed and tested for their acceptability 

in diverse biomes and socio-economic and political contexts. Consistent Indicators and protocols will need to be 

identified collaboratively, and tested in diverse places and 

audiences, if they are to be widely accepted. Once consistent Indicators and protocols for these are identified, 
542 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

tested, and evolved, case-study projects will need to be 

identified collaboratively, tested, and embraced. These 

Indicators can be baselined, benchmarked, and monitored 

over time to see whether they move toward benchmarks. The monitoring science challenges introduced 

by the combination of cross-biome and cross-cultural 

research, different available type and nature of data in 

specific SFTA operational environments, the need for 

consistent Indicators for equitable agency management 

and data comparisons, and the need for wide multi-sector acceptance of Indicators will be significant. The 

tools, techniques, and methods embraced by the SFTA 

including its International Collaborative Partnerships, 

positions the SFTA to play a significant role in meeting 

these challenges.

Epilogue

The USBSC and NASHCC are pilot consortia of the 

SFTA, which is the pilot program for the LDI’s global 

sustainability network. Knowledge and insight gained 

from these pilot consortia and the SFTA network and its 

two pilot consortia are helping evolve the consortia vision, operational model (including emergence, seeding, 

start-up, and long-term sustenance), and tools, techniques 

and processes to seeks to develop and implement. With 

USBSC, NASHCC, and SFTA successes, discussions are 

on-going with potential partners in other regions, including Europe, the Far East, and Africa. The LDI is eager to 

build consortia with universities in other global regions. 

We invite people interested in multi-national partnering 

to enter a dialog that can lead to emergence of a sustainability consortium. To explore consortia or partnerships 

with the SFTA, with Ball State University and other 

U.S. partners, contact John L. Motloch, Director, Land 

Design Institute, Ball State University 765-285-7561, 

jmotloch@bsu.edu. To discuss opportunities to partner 

with the Federal Center of Technological Education or 

Brazilian Universities contact Eloy Casagrande Federal 

Center of Technological Education of Parana 55 41 

310-4719 fassi@ppgte.ainfo.cefetpr.br. To know more 

about the Atlantic Forest and the Curitiba projects contact Dr Patricia Peralta at the Institute of Sustainable 

Development, pperalta04@brturbo.com. To explore opportunities to partner with TEC de Monterrey and other 

Mexican partners, contact Pedro Pacheco, Department of 

Architecture, TEC de Monterrey ppacheco@itesm.mx.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 543

Introduction

Most of Uganda’s biodiversity can be found in the 

natural forests, but a considerable amount is found 

in open waters, wetlands, and dry/moist savannah. 

The major biodiversity ecosystems in Uganda include 

forests, woodlands, savannah, wetlands, and aquatic 

biodiversity (NEMA, 2000/2001). The biodiversity hotspots in Uganda include Mgahinga Gorilla and Bwindi 

Impenetrable National Parks, Rwenzori Mountain 

National Park, Sango Bay wetlands and forest ecosystem, Kibaale National Park, dry mountains of Karamoja 

(Napak, Morungole, Kadam, Timu and Moroto), Lake 

Victoria and papyrus swamps of Lake Edward, George 

and Bunyonyi (NEMA, 2000/2001).

Uganda is well known for the richness of its biodiversity, both terrestrial and aquatic, and it has a 

comprehensive system of protected areas under the management of the forestry department and Uganda Wildlife 

Authority (Pomeroy and others 2002). Despite this, the 

report on the state of Uganda’s Biodiversity 2000 showed 

that the rate of biodiversity loss was high estimated at 1 

percent per year.

A value and threat analysis conducted by UNDP/GEF 

Cross-border biodiversity project in the Sango Bay forests showed that the people were aware of the threats 

they impose on the forests. The following are some of the 

perceived threats to the Sango Bay forests by the communities: cutting young trees for poles and firewood, poor 

harvesting palm leaves, debarking trees for medicines, 

over harvesting of timber, selective harvesting of tree 

species, over harvesting of palm leaves, over harvesting of Marantochloa spp for baskets and poor pastoral 

practices (Nabanyumya and others 1999).

The Role of Indigenous Knowledge in Biodiversity 

Assessment and Monitoring: A Case Study in Uganda

Robinah K. Nanyunja, Research Scientist, Makerere University Institute of Environment and 

Natural Resources (MUIENR), Kampala, Uganda, East Africa

Abstract—Biodiversity is being lost at unprecedented rates through destruction of 

habitats and ecosystems for short-term economic gain. Concern about this has led governments, multilateral organizations, scientists, environmentalists, and others to look for 

ways to promote the conservation of biodiversity. This concern has led to the development of rapid biodiversity assessment approaches based on indigenous knowledge of 

the local people to provide information on biodiversity suitable for use in conservation 

planning and environmental monitoring.

The study, which was funded by UNDP/GEF Cross-Border Biodiversity Project in Uganda 

and implemented by myself on behalf of Makerere University Institute of Environment 

and Natural Resources (MUIENR), was carried out in the communities living in Moroto 

forest reserve and those living adjacent to the forest reserves of Sango Bay area. Moroto 

forest reserve is found in the Northeastern part of Uganda, while Sango Bay area is 

found in Southern part. The study was meant to identify, select indicators for biodiversity 

assessment and monitoring, and determine the trends of the resources since 1950 to 

2001 using indigenous knowledge of the local people. The criteria for the selection of 

biodiversity indicators based on the following resource categories: Resources whose 

alternatives cannot be obtained from outside the forest; Medicinal and food plants; 

Resources with considerable pressure from the people; Sources of income; rare resources 

and large mammals. The results obtained indicated that there has been biodiversity loss 

based on the selected categories since 1950 to 2001, due to mainly change of peoples’ 

livelihoods, over-harvesting, policy, and institutional failures. The major conclusion 

drawn from the study was that, the use of indigenous knowledge is a cheaper method 

in biodiversity assessment and monitoring, and it encourages the participation of local 

communities in resource management decisions thus empowering them to undertake 

sustainable management initiatives. However there is use of a unified knowledge system 

for effective biodiversity assessment and management.
544 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Biological diversity, the variability among living organisms from all sources is of critical value to the world. 

It forms the basis of our food supplies and provides raw 

materials for our pharmaceuticals and a growing number 

of industrial products (Tamanga and Bhattachan 1999). 

Unfortunately, biodiversity is being lost at unprecedented 

rates through the destruction of habitats and ecosystems 

for short-term economic gain. Concern about this has 

led governments, multilateral organizations, scientists, 

environmentalists, and others to look for ways to promote 

the conservation of biodiversity.

As concern about the loss of biodiversity has risen, so 

has the appreciation for the knowledge of the indigenous 

peoples about the natural resources they have lived with 

for centuries. This knowledge has an important scientific 

and strategic value. The majority of the worlds’ people 

rely on indigenous knowledge of plants, animals, insects, 

microbes, and farming systems for either food or medicines. Eighty percent of the worlds’ population depends 

on indigenous knowledge to meet their medicinal needs 

(Tamanga and Bhattachan 1999). It is therefore likely that 

the people closely watch and know how the resources 

are consumed and change.

Since the rate of biodiversity loss in Uganda is very 

rapid, methods by which trends in biodiversity may be 

assessed rapidly and efficiently are urgently required 

(Burley and Gauld 1994.). This need has led to the development of rapid biodiversity assessment approaches 

such as PRAs which aim to provide information on biodiversity suitable for use in conservation planning and 

environmental monitoring, in situations where detailed 

taxonomic investigations of the species concerned are not 

necessarily available (Oliver and Beattie, 1993).

Furthermore, Basemera quotes Gadgil and others 

(1993) as recognising the awareness of local people of the 

variety of uses of local biodiversity, such as medicines, 

which has been incorporated in the modern pharmacopoeia. Rural indigenous people are often knowledgeable 

about plant and animal species, including their identification and ecology (Hellier and others 1998).

Figure 1. Map of Uganda showing location 

of study sites.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 545

Materials and Methods

Study Areas

The study areas were Mt. Moroto Forest reserve in 

the Northeastern part of Uganda and Sango Bay in the 

southern part of Uganda.

Selection of Indicators for Assessing 

Biodiversity Loss

A study carried out by MUIENR and funded by 

UNDP/GEF Cross-Border Biodiversity Project in 

Uganda designed criteria for selection of biodiversity 

indicators for monitoring and evaluation in Moroto and 

Sango Bay cross border biodiversity sites (Nanyunja 

2001). The current study adopted some of these criteria 

and made some modifications to suit its objectives. They 

included the following resource categories (not necessarily mutually exclusive):

Medicinal plants

Food Plants

Plants

Resources with considerable pressure from the 

people

Sources of income; rare resources

Large mammals.

Sampling Procedure and Data 

Collection

Participatory rural appraisals (PRAs)

Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) has become an 

established procedure for investigating indigenous resource management systems (Webber and Ison 1994). 

It is defined as an “intensive, systematic but semi-structured learning experience carried out in a community 

by a multidisciplinary team which includes community 

members” (Theis and Grady 1991). One of the main 

advantages of PRAs is that they help provide a holistic 

vision from the perspective of the end-user, and makes 

use of their experience, which is integrated with that of 

the researchers, in order to broaden the common knowledge-base (Chambers, 1994a,b).

A PRA technique can include rapid surveys of local 

knowledge as tools for investing human perceptions to 

biodiversity loss. In this study, group interviews were 

used as information gathering tools for assessing trends 

in biodiversity loss (changes in abundance and changes 

in the use of indicator species from 1950 to 2001). These 

tools were earlier designed and used to develop a biodiversity monitoring and evaluation framework for Moroto, 

•

•

•

•

•

•

Napak and Sango Bay cross-border biodiversity sites in 

Uganda (Nanyunja 2001). The PRAs consisted of local 

histories/time lines, resources rankings, and abundance 

scores. I collected data using these tools with prepared 

data sheets (figs.2-5).

The people in Bukora parish of Sango Bay were predominantly pastoralists while those in Kanabulemu and 

Minziro parishes were predominantly cultivators. The 

people in Lwamuhuku Parish adjacent to LMNP were 

predominantly pastoralists while those in Kiribwa were 

predominantly cultivators. In Rubaale, the people of 

Kaina Parish were pastoralists while those of Katooma 

and Kyobwe Parishes were cultivators.

One PRA was carried out in each of the three parishes 

of Sango Bay and Moroto. Each PRA consisted of a group 

of 15 to 20 men and women participants—some cultivators and others pastoralists—ranging in age between 20 

to 80 years. Community mobilization and the selection 

of participants for others were done with the help of the 

community forest officers.

Local histories/time lines

This technique taps participants’ memories to recall 

local important historical events to help date other 

changes, such as changes in the environment in this 

case (Nabasa and others 1995). I used this method to 

collect information on trends of indicator species use, 

and changes and reasons for those changes in species 

frequency from 1950 to 2001. Elders were very much 

involved and played a large role in providing this 

historical information. Old people possess most of the 

indigenous knowledge and therefore provide the best 

(Basemera 2002) hence the exercise included elders 

and long-term residents.

Figure 2. Trends of medicinal plants.
546 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Resource rankings

During the discussions, the participants were asked 

to list about 10 to 15 resources (plant or animal species) in each category. Among these, I asked them to 

choose the 5 key resources. One person would suggest a resource name, and this would be subjected to 

debate. The people in support of it would then put 

up their hands. If the number supporting it exceeded 

the others, then we would accept it as a key resource. 

Indicator species and abundances were established in 

a similar manner.

Abundance scores

Abundance scores reflected the availability of indicator species during periods from 1950 to 2001. I asked the 

participants to score the availability an indicator species. 

The scores ranged from 0 to 2 where: 0 reflected none 

or nearly none; 1 a few or some; and 2 many or readily available (Nanyunja 2001). Comparing these scores 

between time periods would reflect a trend in change in 

biodiversity.

Data Analysis

The data collected in form of scores were entered 

and analysed, and graphed in Microsoft Excel by use 

of descriptive statistics. These illustrations show the 

trends of the biodiversity categories. The abundances 

of all the indicator species for a corresponding year 

(for example, 1950) were summed and averaged across 

parishes for each site.

Results

Figure 2 shows trends of medicinal plants. Of the medicinal plants trends’ rapidly in Moroto Forest Reserve 

and least rapidly in the Sango Bay.

Figure 3 shows trends of sources of income of the 

plants being lost that people use as sources of income. 

The Moroto forest reserve is losing them more quickly 

than the Sango Bay site.

Figure 4 shows trends of wild food plants. Plants that 

people use as wild foods are being lost more quickly in 

Moroto than in Sango Bay.

Figure 5 shows trends of wildlife. In Moroto, wildlife 

is decreasing more steadily than in Sango Bay.

Therefore, the results clearly show that Moroto forest 

reserve is more degraded than Sango Bay.

Figure 5. Trends of wildlife.

Figure 3. Trends of sources of income.

Figure 4. Trends of wild food plants.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 547

Discussion

The trends in biodiversity loss as identified by human perceptions are illustrated in the graphs above. A 

general trend of biodiversity loss is found in all the sites. 

However, the magnitude of change varies within sites, 

and considerable variation is found between the study 

sites. The reasons for the change across the sites are 

related to the land use changes and statuses.

Trends of Medicinal Plants

The medicinal plants in Moroto forest Reserve were 

being lost faster than in Sango Bay. The rapid loss in 

Moroto Forest Reserve can be related to the fact that 

there are communities living within inside the forest 

reserve, where as in Sango Bay forest reserves, people 

are living adjacent to the forests. The need for charcoal 

burning, settlement and expansion of agriculture has 

contributed to the clearance of vegetation within Moroto 

Forest Reserve. This shows a contrast in biodiversity 

status between the Park, which is a protected area, and 

the adjacent community, which is a non-protected area.

The medicinal plants, in both study sites, besides 

performing their medicinal roles, are mainly trees, which 

are harvested for timber, charcoal burning, firewood, and 

building poles. The diversity of roles these plants perform 

exposes them to a higher harvesting pressure.

Trends of Plant Sources of Income

The plants being used as sources of income are declining more rapidly in Moroto Forest Reserve than in Sango 

Bay. The plant sources of income, in both study sites, are 

mainly trees, used for commercial purposes such as for 

timber, charcoal burning, firewood, and building poles. 

The diversity of roles these plants perform exposes them 

to a higher harvesting pressure.

During the 1960s and 1970s, the market for wood 

products was very selective. High value tree species such 

as Mvule (Melicea exelsa), Mahoganies, Elgon olive and 

Lovoa spp were depleted from the natural forests through 

selective logging. Large volumes of what at the time 

were considered ‘undesirable’ or ‘weed’ species were 

cleared using the charcoal refining method or poisoned 

with arboricides. The logged areas were later enriched 

with desirable tree species. Much biodiversity was lost 

through this process of exploitation. Uncontrolled harvesting and poor harvesting methods from the 1960s 

to the mid 1980s also contributed to biodiversity loss 

although estimates of such losses have not been documented (NEMA, 2000/2001).

Pressures on biodiversity from habitat loss, climate 

change and other causes are particularly high in East 

Africa (Groombridge and Jenkins 2002). Globally, the 

living planet index (WWF, 2002) shows a decline of 37 

percent of biodiversity from 1970 to 2000, with the rate 

per decade at about 15 percent in the 1980s and 1990s.

Trends of Wild Food Plants

Wild foods are being lost more rapidly in Moroto forest reserve than in Sango Bay. In Moroto Forest Reserve, 

communities were gazetted inside and wild food plants 

contribute a significant role in their food security. In 

Sango Bay area, which is comprised of protected reserves 

of grasslands, wetlands and forests, communities, don’t 

depend on wild food plants for food. The difference in 

the two land management statuses, for example, Sango 

Bay under reserves and Moroto being inhabited, explains 

the difference in change in biodiversity.

Through domestication and direct harvesting from 

the wild, Ugandans derive food, medicines, and a wealth 

of raw materials from plants. The importance of biodiversity to Ugandans is therefore not confined to natural 

ecosystems but includes agro-biodiversity especially in 

altered or anthropogenic ecosystems such as Rubaale 

(NEMA 2000/2001). Meanwhile, human settlements are 

encroaching on protected areas such as national parks, 

forest reserves, and wetlands. Uganda’s population is 

growing very fast, at about 2.5 percent per annum, and 

this population is largely rural. Increased demand for 

food is resulting in new land being cleared for agriculture. Hence, large tracts of land are deforested annually 

(NEMA 2000/2001).

Trends of Wildlife

The numbers of wildlife species have been declining 

more rapidly in Moroto Forest Reserve than Sango Bay. 

The factors, which could have led to the significant reduction of in Moroto Forest Reserve, include:

Hunting for meat which supplement food sources

The clearance of forests, woodlands, bush and 

swamps, which had been habitat for wild animals, for 

expanded agricultural settlement

Massive killing for settlement

Within wildlife-protected areas, poaching for both 

subsistence and commercial trade has been responsible 

in the past for the drastic reduction in wildlife populations. Fines for various wildlife offences are insufficient 

to act as effective deterrents, and the enforcement of the 

wildlife protection laws is weak (NEMA 2000/2001).

The loss of wildlife has been significant in Uganda. 

Although wildlife management was relatively efficient 

up to 1970, thereafter particularly during the 1970-1986 

period, the status of wildlife was seriously undermined 

through indiscriminate poaching. This resulted in major 

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548 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

reductions in the number of species and populations, 

for example, between 1960 and 1998; Uganda lost 71 

percent and 76 percent of its antelope and other large 

mammals (UWA 1999).

Although wildlife and wild plant resources in Uganda 

constitute a great asset, the country risks losing them 

altogether. Uganda’s biodiversity decline is being experienced at the ecosystem, species and genetic levels. 

For example, both the northern white and the black rhino 

have been hunted for commercial purposes to extinction. 

Biodiversity is also being lost through the disappearance 

or alteration of habitats, and the introduction of alien species (NEMA 2000/2001). Examination of a composite 

index of biodiversity (1970=100) revealed that Uganda’s 

biodiversity richness declined steeply from the 1960s to 

the 1990s (NEMA 2000/2001). Losses of biodiversity 

have been registered in forests and woodlands, wildlifeprotected areas, wetlands, and aquatic ecosystems.

Conclusions and 

Recommendations

The results of this study of changing biodiversity 

based on local human perception reveals a decline in 

all biodiversity categories across the study sites, with 

Moroto being more degraded than Sango Bay. To counteract this, tree-planting programmes may be initiated 

in the study areas with immediate attention being given 

to Moroto Forest Reserve. Trees of high interest to the 

community, such as those that are used as sources of 

income or medicine, may be prioritised.

The methods used in the study are important tools for 

monitoring and assessing change in biodiversity based 

on human perceptions. However, we cannot rely on one 

data source to assess and monitor biodiversity. There 

is therefore a need to use a unified knowledge system 

involving biodiversity inventories, both ground truthing 

and aerial surveys, besides the indigenous knowledge 

for effective sustainable biodiversity assessment and 

monitoring.

Acknowledgments

I wish to thank the local leaders of Sango Bay, LMNP 

and Rubaale grasslands for the commendable effort they 

made for me to access the study population. Finally, yet 

importantly, many thanks are extended to UNEP/GEF/

LUCID Project and MUIENR for funding and executing 

the project respectively.

References

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conservation of biological diversity in Sango Bay. MSc 

thesis, Makerere University. Kampala Uganda.

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forest biodiversity. In Boyle T and B. Boontawee (eds). 

Measuring and monitoring biodiversity in tropical and 

temperate forests, pp 19-46. CIFOR, Bogor.

Camacho-Sandoval J. and H. Duque (2001). Indicators of 

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Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 87 (2001) 

141-150.

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1437-1454.

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deforestation? A meta-analysis of proximate and underlying 

causes of deforestation based on sub national case study 

evidence: Case studies of Africa, Asia and Latin America. 

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biodiversity. UNEP/WCMC. University of California Press, 

Berkeley, USA.

Hellier A., S.O Goan and A.C Newton (1998). Use of 

indigenous knowledge for rapidly assessing trends in 

biodiversity: A case study from Chiapas, Mexico.

Nabanyumya R., E. Mupada and E. Kabesiime (1999). A site 

plan for the conservation of the Sango Bay forest/wetland 

ecosystem and development of the adjacent communities, 

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Kampala Uganda.

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Participatory rural appraisal: Principles and practicalities. 

Natural Resources Institute, Catham UK.

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Report for Sango Bay, Moroto and Napak cross-border 

biodiversity sites. MUIENR/UNDP-GEF Cross-borders 

Biodiversity Project, Kampala. Uganda.

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2000/2001. NEMA, Kampala Uganda.

Oliver I and A.J Beattie (1993). A possible method for the 

rapid assessment of biodiversity. Conservation biology 7: 

562-568.

Pomeroy D., P. Mwima, R. Nanyunja and L. Chapman 

(2002). The State of Uganda’s Biodiversity 2002. NBDBMUIENR, Kampala Uganda.

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Asian Regional Conference on Reasserting Indigenous 

knowledge system (November 1-3 1997 Nepal). Indigenous 

knowledge programme, Asia indigenous peoples’ pact and 

Nepal federation of nationalities.

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draft 2, April 1999. Kampala, Uganda.

Theis J. and H.M Grady (1991). Participatory rapid appraisal 

for community development: a training manual based 
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on experiences in the Middle East and North Africa. 

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London, UK.

Webber L.M. and R.L Ison (1994). Participatory rural appraisal design: conceptual and process issues. Agric. Syst. 

47, 107-131.

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Switzerland.
550 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction: Ecological 

System

The Environmental Protection Unit (EPA) of 

Guaraqueçaba was created in 1985 under the Law Decree 

n° 90.883/85. It has an extension of 191.595 ha located 

in the coastal region of the State of Paraná, southern 

Brazil. The EPA contains the largest continuous fragment 

of the 7 percent of the remaining areas of the Brazilian 

Atlantic Forest ecosystem (Floresta Ombrófila Densa) 

and the so called Coastal Biome composed of dunes, 

mangroves, and estuaries. The Atlantic Forest was declared a hotspot in 1992, by Conservation International 

due to its high endemic biodiversity, imminent danger 

of destruction and established social conflicts. The EPA 

also contains archeological sites; traditional populations 

defined by indigenous groups, fisherman and subsistence 

agriculture peasants that inhabit the region for over a 

century (IPARDES, 2001). In that sense, the EPA of 

Guaraqueçaba is characterized by a vast heterogeneity 

of social and environmental systems that are in constant 

dynamic exchange.

The importance of the EPA of Guaraqueçaba relative 

to the State of Paraná is also evident when analyzing its 

history in retrospective. At the beginning of the 20th century, 80 percent of the original landscape of the State was 

covered by forests, namely the “ombrófila mista” with its 

characteristics Araucaria Pines (Araucaria angustifólia) 

and semi-deciduous forests in altitudes superior to 900 

m, and the “ombrófila densa” or Atlantic Forest in the hill 

slopes of the Serra do Mar alongside the Atlantic Ocean’s 

coast (fig. 1). Today, the State has only 8 percent of its 

original Araucaria forest cover and only 3 percent of the 

original Atlantic Forest cover, with the EPA containing 

the largest continuous fragment of that biome of the 

country (SOS Mata Atlântica 2002.

According to Maack (1968) in Jacobs (2002), the 

greatest forest loss occurred between the 1960s and the 

1980s decades (table 1), a period that coincides with the 

greatest deforestation cycles observed in the Amazon 

region and with the dictatorships regimes in Brazil.

With the aim of protecting the endangered forest 

areas and natural resources, several conservation units 

were established in the Brazilian territory since 1938. 

Nevertheless, problems persisted due to land tenure 

Landscape Conservation and Social Tension in the 

Brazilian Atlantic Forest: Challenges for Implementing 

Sustainability

Libia Patricia Peralta Agudelo, PhD, Landscape Ecology, GIS Senior Lecturer & Research 

Associate, CEFET-PR, Institute of Sustainable Development, Paraná, Brazil

Maristela Marangon, Sociologist and Masters Degree Candidate, CEFET-PR, Paraná, Brazil

Abstract—The study is based in the Environmental Protection Area of Guaraqueçaba 

located in the Atlantic Forest of the State of Paraná, southern Brazil. EPAs in Brazil allow 

private ownership, resource extraction, and agriculture according to predefined land use 

laws. A systems’ approach was adopted to define the main interacting variables needed 

to understand the local socio-economic context and the causes of an observed increase 

in illegal activities. The Atlantic Forest is of particular importance as it was declared a 

“hotspot” in 1992 for its endemic biodiversity and high risk of destruction; today only 

7% of the original cover remains as scattered fragments. A series of increasing social 

and environmental conflicts have been observed in the EPA because the Law restricted 

traditional agricultural practices without defining alternatives to sustain locals. As a 

result, new forms of illegal behaviors emerged, such as indiscriminate extraction and 

hunting, with devastating effects. The methodology adopted herein assists in understanding the core of these conflicts and permits the formulation of strategies to minimize 

them. Based on the redefinition of the perception of sustainability both from the local 

people and law enforcement perspectives and through the reconciliation of traditional 

practices and cultural issues, it allows the reconnection of people to their place and its 

ecological dynamics.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 551

conflicts and poor demarcation techniques that in many 

cases resulted in superposition of land titles and border inadequacies. The State of Paraná addressed these 

problems only in 1980 through the creation of the EPA, 

a category of conservation unit that allows human 

settlements and restrictive natural resources’ exploitation 

according to pre-established laws.

The EPA of Guaraqueçaba was officially demarcated 

in 1985. It is believed that the creation of such conservation units has, to some extent, prevented greater losses 

of biodiversity in the State of Paraná (as in the entire 

Brazilian territory). However, forest degradation is 

still taking place. Research is showing that agriculture 

pressure over these areas remains high. In spite of law 

enforcement and monitoring efforts, selective extraction of woods, plants, and endangered animal species 

continues and, in some cases, it is reported to have been 

accentuated. According to Jacobs (2002), this is due 

to the small extent of some of the Paraná’s conservation units and small or inexistent participation of local 

populations in the management and profits generated 

by tourism and research undertaken in these areas. In 

this paper, we investigate these and other factors that 

might have contributed to the increasing deforestation 

and natural resources’ depletion observed in the EPA of 

Guaraqueçaba. The main aim was to establish the nature 

and causes of these actions that resulted in activities that 

are actually contrary to the ones expected when the legal 

implementation of the EPA.

Systemic Approach to 

Understand Social and 

Environmental Conflicts

It has been said that when adopting a systemic approach to a given problem, simulations that do not have 

a real basis are constructed. Nevertheless, it is argued 

that these are constructed and compared with what is 

known about a given reality, thus allowing the testing of 

various hypotheses (Marzall and Almeida 1999). Clayton 

and Radcliffe (1996) argue that the intrinsic complexity 

and chaotic nature of systems determine the difficulty in 

predicting their behavior. Nonetheless, it is also argued 

that a systemic approach does not provide solutions but 

unveils problems that might go unforeseen other way 

(Morin 2001).

The first step to implement the systemic analysis of 

the conflicts observed in the EPA is to identify the characteristics of main systems operating there – namely the 

social, environmental, and economic. In sequence, as 

proposed by the Lalone Scheme (1974), the main interaction flows between these and other operation subsystems 

should be identified. Main subsystems can be defined 

as educational, health, agricultural, religious, legal, law 

enforcement and physicosocial. The interaction between 

systems and subsystems can be illustrated better as taking place in an imaginary sphere where exchange flows 

are constant and occur at three main scale levels: local, 

regional and global (fig. 2).

The social subsystem of the EPA is composed by a 

series of actors that are involved in the Guaraqueçaba 

situation and that have sometimes conflicting interests. 

Main actors are described as governmental (State environmental agencies, Law enforcement, Monitoring Agencies 

such as IBAMA and IAP and Research Institutions such 

as universities and research centers), local communities 

(indigenous communities, fisherman, land owners and 

peasants) and civil society (tourists, 

NGOs, enterprises, industry and 

others). When assessing just a few 

of the main expectations of each 

of these groups, some important 

aspects were uncovered:

Governmental: protection of natural resources through clearly 

defined land use restrictions, law 

enforcement, preservation of endangered species, regulation of illegal 

Figure 1. Location of the EPA of Guaraqueçaba at global, 

regional and local scales. Source: SPVS, 2000.

Table 1. Deforestation dynamics observed in the Paraná State between 1895-2000.

Year Area (ha.) Percentage of State Source

1895 16.782.400 83,41 MAACK, 1968

1930 12.902.400 64,13 MAACK, 1968

1950 7.983.400 39,68 MAACK, 1968

1965 4.813.600 23,92 MAACK, 1968

1980 3.413.447 16,97 PELLICO NETO, 1984

1990 1.848.475 9,19 SOS-Mata Atlântica, ISA & INPE, 1998

1995 1.769.449 8,79 SOS-Mata Atlântica, ISA & INPE, 1998

2000 1.594.298 7,98 SOS-Mata Atlântica Atlas of 2000

From: Jacobs ( 2002).
552 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

activities, information, research and scientific 

knowledge generation, regional sustainable development.

Local communities: improvement of living conditions through better access to goods and services, 

modern comforts, desire to practice their traditional 

economic activities, access to education, information and technology, freedom to decide their future, 

participation in decision making, safety, more communication with urban centers, development that 

brings income.

Civil society: preservation of natural heritage and 

cultural traditions, access to natural areas, information, participation in decision making, participation 

in revenues if any, leisure, education, recreation, 

sustainable development.

Since it is known that deforestation and other illegal 

activities in the EPA are said to be taking place as a result 

of social and economic interests conflicting with environmental preservation purposes, a study on the interaction 

flows between the social, economic, and environmental 

subsystems was undertaken.

Social, Economic, and 

Environmental Dynamics in 

the EPA of Guaraqueçaba

When assessing the demographic evolution in the 

Guaraqueçaba region, it is observed that in 1980 only 17 

percent of the total population lived in the urban areas 

and by the year 2000, 31 percent of the population was 

living there (table 2). This represents an increment of 205 

percent of urban population increment in two decades.

Although rural areas in the EPA still embrace the 

majority of the population, there has been a considerable 

emigration from the rural to the urban areas in that region. 

These results are contradictory to the purposes of the EPA 

where traditional rural economic activities are said to be 

an asset to be preserved and the rapid expansion of urban 

areas can trigger unwanted changes in traditional social 

and economic practices.

A study conducted as a PhD thesis in the Federal 

University of Paraná (UFPR-MADE 2002), examined the 

type of economic activities conducted currently by the 

Figure 2. The Lalone Complex System Model. Adapted from Lalone 1974 in Chaves, M., 1998.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 553

rural populations in the EPA of Guaraqueçaba (table 3). 

Data was divided into two economic activities’ categories: main and secondary. Results showed that although 

a significant number of main and secondary activities 

were related somehow to agriculture, a more complex 

scenario started to emerge, which could be described as 

an “economy defined not by agriculture (as traditionally was), but through agriculture. This was called a 

defined as a new rural pluri-activity (Hugues Lamarche 

in Ferreira 2002).

Data shows that in the past most inhabitants of the 

EPA were directly involved in agriculture (almost 61 

percent of retired people declared that). Today economic 

activities seem to be more varied. Currently, just over 19 

percent of the EPA’s population does have agriculture as 

a main activity and 15 percent as a secondary activity. 

These are owners and/or employees practicing subsistence and commercial agriculture. Results also show a 

proportion of almost 8.5 percent of people indirectly 

employed with agriculture either as a main or secondary 

economic activity.

It is possible to conclude that most people 

of the rural areas of the EPA, more than 65 

percent, are not involved in any agricultural 

activity, either as a main or secondary source 

of income either because these are students, 

house wives, artisans, fisherman, etc., while 

21 percent of the population declared to be 

involved in ‘other’ activities. These results 

are intriguing, given the remoteness of the 

place and the very limited offer of alternative 

jobs and activities that can be developed in 

the region. So how are people surviving in 

the EPA?

These findings are also supported by evidence that show that only 12 percent of people 

living from agriculture in the EPA are really 

making their livelihoods from it. According 

to that, most people in the EPA are obliged to 

sell their labor to be able to sustain themselves 

(Rodrigues and others 2002). The question 

as to how these people are managing to do 

that in such remote areas and in face of the 

land use restrictions imposed by the Law that 

applies in that conservation unit remains still 

unanswered.

At the same time, increasing allegations 

of illegal activities are being reported by law 

enforcement agents, forest police, and NGOs 

members. These activities range from the 

illegal extraction of palmito (Euterpe edulis), wood, plants, and animals that are commercialized 

through an intricate web of transgressors to accusations 

about the existence of illegal agricultural plots in remote 

areas in the forest interior. Again, studies show the need 

that the local populations have to diversify their economic activities shifting from an agricultural base to a 

pluri-activity base.

Legal Land Use Restrictions 

and Social Conflicts

In order to address further the impacts that land use 

restrictions are having on the social and economic dynamics operating in the EPA, some aspects of the current 

Law are enumerated below:

Compulsory authorization for opening new agricultural plots – This is granted by the federal or local 

environmental regulating agencies, namely IBAMA 

and IAP.

Agriculture alongside river margins (20-50 meters) 

and in riparian(?) forest and areas of water wells is 

forbidden.

•

•

Table 2. Demographic evolution in the EPA of Guaraqueçaba, 1950 to 2000.

Year

Population 1950 1960 1970 1980 1991 1996 2000

Total 7174 7713 7648 7662 7751 8035 8288

Urban 707 1134 1348 1298 1742 2239 2582

Rural 6467 6759 6306 6372 6020 5776 5706

Source: Demographic Census of IBGE, 1950 to 2000.

Table 3. Main and Secondary economic activity of populations of the EPA 

of Guaraqueçaba.

Main Secondary

Occupation No % No %

Agriculture 434 19,41 337 15,07

Fishing 65 2,91 28 1,25

Employed in Agriculture 120 5,37 78 3,49

Artisan 59 2,64 20 0,89

Small business 29 1,30 16 0,72

Employed (not in agriculture) 79 3,53 37 1,65

Employed by Government 67 3,00 9 0,40

Employed by landowner, maid 59 2,64 15 0,67

Retired* 317 14,18 0 0,00

Student 487 21,78 10 0,45

Housewife 298 13,33 202 9,03

Other 64 2,86 477 21,33

Not declared 13 0,58 0 0,00

Unemployed 145 6,48 1 0,04

Without secondary occupation 0 0,00 1006 44,99

Total 2236 100 2236 100

Source: UFPR-MADE / CNRS - Relatório de Pesquisa (2003).

* 60,88 per cent of retired persons were previously involved in agriculture.
554 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Agriculture in hill slopes and river floodplains is restricted and subjected to previous approval.

Activities of hunting and extraction are considered 

illegal.

Some studies (Zanoni and others 2000, Rodrigues and 

others 2002) indicate that these restrictions have affected 

directly the traditional economic practices. Main impacts 

are described below:

Bureaucracy has in many cases prevented families to 

establish their subsistence agriculture plots.

Restrictions to plant in the river margins have affected 

banana and corn plantations, main commercial cultures in the region.

Restrictions to plant in hill slopes have reduced slush 

and burn activities affecting the traditional cycles of 

production.

Quality of Life Indicators for 

the EPA of Guaraqueçaba

In order to asses further how the legal interventions 

have benefited or affected negatively the quality of life 

of the traditional populations, a series of indicators were 

established through quantitative and qualitative studies conducted during 2003. Main results are presented 

below in the form of simplified negative and positive 

scores:

Negative indexes included aspects such as high criminality, high stress levels, alcoholism, reported use 

of drugs, high incidence of infecto-contagious 

diseases such as HIV, high migration indexes, law 

education standards, high unemployment, lack of 

job opportunities, precarious infrastructure and 

services, low health assistance, lack of information, poor access and transport, high incidence of 

resentment against governmental actors, ignorance 

about the relationship between natural preservation 

and tourism.

Positive indexes included high eco-tourism potential, 

high associativism and self-management potential, 

strong desire to remain in the region, high awareness about the local problems, high environmental 

quality, high biodiversity and natural resources 

potential, access to electricity.

This study also established that aspects such as cultural preservation, local productive potential, and human 

and ecosystem carrying capacity were not considered 

important by the local populations. 

•

•

•

•

•

Main Contradictions Identified

Some contradictions generated by the above mentioned factors:

The illegal extraction of palmito increased after the 

demarcation of the EPA. It has been reported that this 

illegal activity is coordinated by people from outside 

the community that serve as a middle man between the 

extractivists (locals) and the companies that process 

and commercialize the product (Santos, 2001).

Illegal deforestation has also increased. Local families 

are opening clandestine agricultural plots in remote 

forest areas without respecting the traditional cycles 

and rotation schemes thus degrading the local ecosystems.

Illegal hunting has also increased since populations 

are still hunting for subsistence purposes but also 

to commercialize endangered species animals in 

an established black market. Hunting is now taken 

place without regarding age, sex and species as it 

used to be practiced in the past. (Zanoni and others, 2002).

Tourism related economic activities have increased 

but the local populations have not yet established a 

direct link between the local ecosystem preservation 

and tourism.

Local populations allegedly report not having seen 

improvements in their quality of life, nor have they 

received access to services and infrastructure after the 

creation of the EPA.

These considerations suggest that local ecological 

limitations (environmental subsystems) have imposed 

restrictions to traditional practices (economic subsystem) 

without real intervention form the state and/or scientific 

sectors (government and education subsystems). What 

we are seeing is that sustainability is a variable directly 

dependant on social sustainability (Rodrigues and others 2003).

Analysis of the Dynamic Flows 

Occurring in the EPA

The idea of adopting a systemic approach to assess 

conflicts identified in the EPA derives from the need 

to: firstly, establish the main interactions between main 

aspects and actors involved in the EPA and secondly, 

to identify areas where these interactions are truncated 

and/or not flowing properly. In that sense, main problems 

identified between the analyzed flows can be described 

as:

•

•

•

•

•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 555

Government and scientific efforts were mainly directed to protect the natural environment with no or 

poor interest in the local social environment.

Public policies defined for the area had a strong 

ecological basis and a weak local social understanding.

Resources, science and technology has been employed 

to understand ecosystems specific aspects such as 

species habitats and characteristics, but have failed 

to address basic landscape ecological interactions and 

processes which are the basis to define management 

strategies by identifying critical areas, areas of risk, 

fragmented ecosystems, etc. The result is a poor or 

inexistent knowledge for establishing priorities for 

development and/or conservation, i.e., which areas 

can be devoted to agriculture, which are in need to 

be restored, where to establish ecological corridors, 

where can urban expansion take place, etc.

Information has not been produced to be understood 

and passed adequately to decision makers such as 

environmental regulation agencies so that they could 

use it for law enforcement, monitoring and planning 

purposes.

Information has not been produced in formats that can 

be of use to the local populations about ways for them 

to benefit from their local environment

When designing laws to restrict land use in the EPA, 

no other alternatives that were consistent with the 

EPA ecological limitations were designed to allow 

the subsistence of local populations

Initiatives of dialogue between all actors involved 

seem to have failed due to inability of negotiations 

and/or lack of understanding about the other needs 

and expectations

Although it is now known that one of the biggest potential of the region is based on tourism, information 

and science produced until now is not organized in a 

manner to plan that activity sustainably and mitigate 

its potential social and environmental impacts.

Local populations are not aware of the importance of 

their participation to develop and manage tourism in 

the EPA. They need to be reconnected to their landscape and land.

Considerable effort is now needed to restore trust 

between local populations and governmental authorities and research institutions. This can only be done 

through results reflected in the real improvement of 

services and income generation.

Technological knowledge and science need to be 

directed towards strategies that address sustainable 

pluri-activities, considering low impact selective 

forest management, organic agriculture, agroforestry 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

systems, sustainable landscape design, eco-tourism, 

and other alternative technologies developments 

consistent with the EPA’s social and ecosystem preservation.

Local cooperatives and associations need to be adequately implemented and supported by the local 

governments and public policies until they become 

self-sustainable.

Basically, what all these considerations suggest is that 

although science and information has been produced, it 

has not been adequately generated in order to assess real 

needs of all actors involved and also, that the necessary 

dialogue and interaction amongst actors has not been 

properly established. There seems to be the need to 

identify a hierarchical scale of information generation, 

namely starting from the local to the regional and global 

levels (fig. 3) and through the implementation of a strategy to make this information flow in a multidimensional 

manner so that it includes all aspects relevant to the 

systems and subsystems operating in the EPA.

Conclusions

This study has shown a clear breakdown in the information flows that take place between the actors that 

interact in the Guaraqueçaba situation. In order to assess 

clearly were these flows should be (re) established they 

have been organized in three main categories according 

to their scale of interaction:

Local Scale Information Flow: relating to information 

that should be produced and disseminated at the local 

level, namely in the Guaraqueçaba area. It should be 

produced with the assistance of local populations, with 

high technical input and content but derived in a way 

that is easily digested by the native communities. It 

should address items such as: local ecological properties and limitations, economic potential, alternatives 

for natural resource use and agricultural activities that 

are sustainable, inform about reasons for legal land 

use restrictions, include traditional knowledge, include 

local human priorities in preservation strategies, robust technological input to implement sustainability, 

prepare locals to manage and profit from tourism activities that are educative, sustainable and lucrative.

Regional Scale Information Flow: This type of information should be derived from the local level 

information and expanded to address the interests 

and scope of the regional actors, such as government, 

academia, scientists, etc. In that sense, it should subsidize development plans, law enforcement, investors, 

and other decision making processes at a regional 

scale. It should never be derived using a bottom down 

•

1.

2.
556 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

approach (global to regional) and always adopt a 

bottom-up approach (local to regional). At this level, 

knowledge and information on how diversify production in Guaraqueçaba should be developed. Regional 

markets should be implemented and prepared to 

absorb local production. Tourism activities should be 

formulated and implemented.

Global Scale Information Flow: This type of information should be generated always from the local and 

regional information flows and expanded to meet the 

demands of the global society. It should provide the 

global actors with information on the local, regional, 

and global perspectives of the area in question. It 

should address the need to promote science, education, and understanding of the importance of adopting 

a systemic and scale dependant approach to promote 

a balanced social, economic and ecological sustainability.

Although some initiatives are already taken place, 

these are still on their onset in Guaraqueçaba. Information 

is still sparse and actors experience difficulties in negotiating and establishing dialogue. It is believed that 

dialogue will flow better if from now on efforts are 

devoted to produce only the right and strictly essential 

information and shared among actors. Also, in order to 

achieve the adequate formats to the meet the needs of 

3.

Figure 3. Information generation flow from local to regional and global.

the various audiences involved, a hierarchical approach 

as the one here suggested should be implemented.

References

Chaves, M,M. (1998). Complexidade e Transdisciplinaridade: 

uma abordagem multidimensional do setor saúde. Available 

at: <http://www.nc.ufrj.br/complexi.htm>. Accessed on 

21.02.2004.

Clayton, A.M.H.; Radcliffe, N.J. (1996). Sustainability: a 

systems approach. Earthscan. London.

Ferreira, A. D. D. (2002). Processos e sentidos sociais do 

rural na contemporaneidade: indagações sobre algumas 

especificidades brasileiras. XXIX Encontro Nacional de 

Estudos rurais e Urbanos, Anais. Pp. 29-46. Ceru/USP. 

São Paulo.

IBGE. (2002). Censo Demográfico 1950-2000: Agregado 

de Setores Censitários dos Resultados do Universo. 

Documentação dos Arquivos de Dados. Rio de Janeiro: 

IBGE.

IPARDES. (2001). Zoneamento da APA de Guaraqueçaba. 

Curitiba: Ed. IPARDES/IBAMA.

Jacobs, G. A. (2002). Evolução dos remanescentes florestais e 

áreas protegidas do estado do Paraná. In: Revista Cadernos 

de Biodiversidade. Curitiba: Instituto Ambiental do ParanáIAP/DIBAP. N. 2, p.73-81.

Morin, E. (2001). O método, v. 1. A natureza da natureza. 

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Rodrigues, A. S.; Tommasino, H.; Foladori, G.; Gregorczuk, 

A. (2003). É correto pensar a sustentabilidade em nível 
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local? Uma análise metodológica a partir do estudo de 

caso em uma Área de proteção Ambiental no litoral sul do 

Brasil. Ambiente & Sociedade. 5: 2, 6: 1. Nepam/Unicamp. 

Campinas.

Santos, E. (2001). Os dilemas da permanência num ambiente 

de mudanças. Monografia (Graduação em Ciências Sociais) 

– Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba.

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< http://www.sosmatatlantica.org.br>. Accessed on: 

28.07.2004.

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(MADE) / CNRS - Université de Bordeaux II. Programa 

de Pesquisas no litoral do Paraná: pesquisa realizada em 

comunidades rurais de Guaraqueçaba em 2000. Relatório 

Parcial de Pesquisa. Curitiba.

Zanoni, M.; Ferreira, A. D.; Miguel, L. A.; Floriani, D.; 

Canali, N. & Raynaut, C. (2000). Preservação da natureza 

e desenvolvimento rural: dilemas e estratégias dos agricultores familiares em APAs. In: Desenvolvimento e 

Meio Ambiente: a reconstrução da ruralidade e a relação 

sociedade/natureza. Curitiba : UFPR, n.2.
558 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The Anthropocene: Climate Change 

Linked to Humans

The Anthropocene epoch has been described as the 

period in which past human effects have altered the 

global environment. Just as geological phenomena take 

place on global, as well as regional and local levels, 

anthropogenic environmental change also has occurred 

across geographic scales. Initially, the Anthropocene 

was defined as beginning with the Industrial Revolution, 

in the latter part of the eighteenth century. Crutzen and 

Stoermer (2000) argue that greenhouse warming began 

with the Industrial Revolution, based on their analysis 

of aerosols trapped in glacial ice. Yet, by defining the 

beginning of the Anthropocene as a geological epoch 

beginning only 200 years ago, Crutzen and Stoermer 

truncate thousands of years of human interactions with 

the global environment.

Examination of older glacial ice levels shows intriguing evidence of human-caused climate change, 

beginning nearly 8,000 years ago. The initiation and 

intensification of human impacts coincide with the 

divergence of Holocene Greenland ice core CO2 (carbon dioxide) and CH4

 (methane) concentrations from 

levels predicted by previous interglacial patterns. The 

anomalous variations in CO2 and CH4 concentrations in 

the middle and late Holocene are well outside levels that 

prevailed over the previous 300,000 years (Ruddiman 

2003:263). Late Holocene ice core evidence suggests 

that increased levels of greenhouse gasses coincide with 

the development of agriculture and other technologies 

(Ruddiman 2003). Paleoenvironmental research around 

the globe indicates that human societies have cumulatively influenced a wide variety of ecosystems. Around 

5000 B.C., CH4 levels began a slow increase, culminating in completely anomalous levels by the beginning 

of the Industrial Revolution. By then, methane levels 

were already as high as they had been at the end of the 

Pleistocene, 14,000 to 12,000 years ago. Carbon dioxide 

output also grew with increasing human populations 

and technological advances. Small-scale deforestation 

and the use of fire for clearing land dumped carbon 

directly into the atmosphere. Landscapes across the 

world were cleared of forests to produce grazing lands 

for domesticated livestock (Zolitschka and others 2003). 

Deforestation increased as wood was cut for household use, firing pottery and bricks, metal production, 

and for use as building material. Fewer trees led to 

likely resulted in less carbon sequestration (Ruddiman 

2003:274). This trend in anthropogenic change grew 

larger with the development of metallurgy and other 

fuel-intensive technologies.

Visualizing the Anthropocene: Human Land Use History 

and Environmental Management

Richard D. Periman, Ph.D., Research Archaeologist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Cultural Heritage Research, Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—The term “Anthropocene” defines the current, human-dominated, geological epoch of human-caused environmental influences. Some researchers believe that 

the beginning of this epoch coincides with the inception of the Industrial Revolution 

(Crutzen and Stoermer 2000). Research is revealing that humans have affected environments on global and local scales for millennia. Contention over land management 

often hinges on disparate beliefs about the environment and the ways in which policy 

makers and the public visualize the past. There is a need to communicate the complexities of anthropogenic environmental change, on a local scale, through a medium 

that transcends different disciplines and cultural backgrounds. This paper discusses 

ongoing research of long-term human land use, and the ways human-environmental 

interactions have shaped the landscapes we encounter today. Environmentally based 

landscape visualizations are crucial forms of communication, which can be used to 

establish benchmarks for ecosystem restoration, future land management planning, and 

as a venue for better communication with the public. A picture may be worth more than 

a thousand words in bridging conflicting visions of nature, past, present, and future, in 

environmental disputes.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 559

Metal production added CO2, as well as heavy metals 

to the atmosphere. Scientists have discovered correlations 

between elevated atmospheric lead levels in peat bog deposits in Switzerland, and the development of European 

silver mining and smelting. Beginning around 400 B.C., 

European peat bogs exhibit increased levels of lead 

isotope around 400 B.C. These deposits show a steady 

increase in lead levels through the second century A.D., 

which corresponds to increased European silver smelting (Shotyk and others 1998:1637). This lead isotope 

signal also appears in ice cores from Greenland glacial 

deposits, perhaps indicating the world-wide effects of 

Roman era pollution (Hong and others1996). Cumulative 

environmental change, at local and regional scales, when 

viewed over thousands of years, may add up to significant 

shaping of the global environment.

The Anthropocene at Regional and 

Local Scales

At local and regional scales cumulative environmental change, when viewed over thousands of years, may 

add up to significant shaping of the global environment. 

Researchers have found a range of evidence indicating 

long-term, human-induced change at regional and local 

levels in environments around the globe (Baker and 

Biger 1992, Cotton 1996, Norton 1989, Pearsall 2000). 

Pollen and charcoal studies from Western Europe, Africa, 

Asia, Australia, and North and South America show that 

humans have been changing Earth’s ecosystems for 

millennia (Walker and Singh 1993:108). Increases in microscopic charcoal, changes in fossil pollen assemblages, 

and faunal extinctions may be used as proxy indicators 

of human‐induced ecological change (Burney 1993 and 

1997; Chambers 1993; Walker and Singh 1993).

Since the end of the Pleistocene, people in Europe 

have altered, manipulated, and domesticated ecosystems, 

transforming the continent into a system of interconnecting and overlying cultural landscapes (Caseldine and 

Hatton 1993, Hope and Golson 1995, Simmons 1989). 

Archaeological investigations provide ample evidence 

of human impacts on long-term soil formation, at local 

and regional scales (Acotte 1998:74‐75, French and 

others 2003).

The first New World settlers first arrived more than 

12,000 years ago. Their technology, including the 

use of fire, initiated a slow and cumulative process of 

broad‐scale environmental change (Brown and Hebda 

2001). As populations expanded, groups of people spread 

throughout North and South America. Native peoples increasingly modified and managed landscapes to heighten 

the production of vital resources. By 4000 B.C., Andean 

landscapes were already being cleared by local societies 

for agriculture (Chepstow‐Lusty and others1998). In the 

southern region of the United States, during the late-Holocene, Appalachian Oak‐Chestnut communities were the 

product of landscape management by Native Americans. 

Pollen and charcoal‐particle analyses indicate that for 

thousands of years, Native Americans influenced biological diversity and maintained a heterogeneous landscape 

mosaic using fire (Delcourt and Delcourt 1997). Prior 

to the arrival of Europeans, Native Californians altered 

thousands of hectares of forests, grasslands, wetlands, 

and river valleys, through intensive land management 

(Blackburn and Anderson 1993). Native peoples lived in 

settlements that ranged from villages, with small family 

units, to cities housing tens of thousands of individuals. In the Southwestern United States, native cultures 

affected soil development, erosion, and hydrology, as 

demonstrated in the remains of water control features, 

irrigation canals, and specialized agricultural technology 

(Deneven 1992:370, Periman 2001).

Current Geoarchaeological 

Research

My research focuses on human-environmental change 

in New Mexico’s desert landscapes and in the forests of 

western Montana. A main objective of this research is to 

develop an integrated, interdisciplinary approach for reconstructing extended landscape history, and identifying 

cumulative anthropogenic effects on landscapes through 

time. I use archaeological data, as well as paleoenvironmental data collected from alluvium, bogs, and wood 

rat middens, to produce visual models of how different 

landscapes may have appeared during various periods. 

Computer-generated visualizations create representations 

of past environments that enhance understanding of the 

dynamics of landscape changes. Such visualization technology mediates challenges in resource management, by 

providing models of landscapes during specific periods 

and under a variety reference conditions (Appleton and 

Lovett 2003).

In the Rio del Oso study, located on the Santa Fe 

National Forest in New Mexico (fig. 1), I use a wide variety of scientific techniques to construct three-dimensional 

representations of past landscapes. These temporal and 

spatial visualizations, based on paleoenvironmental and 

archaeological data, help tie conceptualizations of past 

human land use to existing landscapes. First, I created 

archaeological site area, vegetation, and soil data layers 

using a digital elevation model and the geographical information system (GIS) software ArcInfo and ArcView. 

Using these GIS map layers, and vegetation density data 

derived from fossil pollen and phytolith analyses, I then 
560 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

produced the landscape models using Visual Nature 

Studio (3DNature). The landscape models are organized by economic strategy, i.e., hunting and gathering, 

Puebloan horticulture, Spanish colonial and Mexican 

era subsistence ranching, and post 1850commercial 

grazing. I construct the landscape models taking into account the ways in which each strategy may have affected 

the landscape through time. During the Archaic period 

(5500 B.C. to A.D. 600), vegetational change in the Rio 

del Oso was likely driven by a combination of climatic 

conditions, lightening fires, and human activity including 

burning to increase desired resource production. Fire and 

disturbance-related vegetation was common. This past 

landscape was dominated by grassland, with juniper 

densities ranging from approximately 0.5 tph (trees per 

hectare), to less than 2 tph, with less per-hectare density 

of pine in the lower drainage. During this period, the 

sedimentation rate was between 4.5 and 8 centimeters 

per century. The high incidence of late Archaic period 

microscopic charcoal, consisting of a high percentage of 

10 to 25 micron particles, suggests the burning of grassland on a landscape scale (Periman 2001). These smaller 

particles represent airborne particulate from landscapelevel fires; while large particles indicate localized fires 

(Clark and Royall 1996, Delcourt and Delcourt 1996). 

Interestingly, there is a lack of archaeological evidence 

for the period from A.D. 600 to 1200.

During the Puebloan period (A.D. 1200 to 1600), 

the Rio del Oso floodplain was at least 5 to 8 meters 

higher than current levels, and the frequency of Puebloan 

archaeological sites in the valley is the highest of any 

period. Archaeologists have recorded 237 sites with a 

total site area of approximately 196 hectares. The fossil 

pollen record shows high levels of disturbance-related 

vegetation, and sedimentation rates increased to >14 

centimeters per century. This increase in floodplain 

accumulation represents more than a doubling of the 

sedimentation rate from the Archaic period rate of 6.25 

centimeters per century. From A.D. 1400 to 1765, the 

sedimentation rate increased to 16.42 centimeters per 

century (Periman 2001).

Landscape level fire in the Rio del Oso appears to have 

diminished between approximately A.D. 400 and1600. 

Pine and juniper densities were within the same range as 

they were during the Archaic period. The Puebloan landscape consisted of open grassland, dominated visually by 

a central village, with fields dispersed in the floodplain, 

and supplementary agricultural features on Pleistocene 

terraces (fig. 2). As the population of the centralized villages and surrounding areas grew, the creation of fields 

and frequently used trails increased the exposure of soil 

to wind and water erosion, and likely resulted in greater 

sediment deposition in the floodplain.

The Spanish period and subsequent Mexican period 

landscape, A.D. 1700 to 1848, differed greatly from its 

predecessors. Colonial documents from the eighteenth 

century reveal that by the 1730s, Spanish settlers lived 

in the upper portion of the Rio del Oso canyon (Periman 

2001). Archaeological sites recorded from this period 

cover an area of 63 hectares. These communities imposed 

Figure 1. Rio del Oso study area, 

northwest of Santa Fe, New 

Mexico.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 561

an Old World model of subsistence farming and livestock 

grazing upon the Puebloan landscape. By doing so, the 

Spanish helped to create a composite landscape upon the 

ruins of the older, Puebloan land use systems.

Floodplain erosion began with the intensification 

of Spanish era ranching in the eighteenth and early 

nineteenth centuries. In the Rio del Oso valley, fire 

levels fell sharply and Spanish period juniper density 

increased to >10 tph, while disturbance vegetation, once 

utilized by Puebloan peoples, declined to levels below 

any period of the past 6,000 years. The alluvial record 

in the lower portion of the valley ceased aggrading, 

terminating after A.D. 1765. Although the valley floor 

had been stable for nearly 7,000 years, Spanish period 

erosion dramatically altered the Rio del Oso ecosystem. 

The meandering stream and riparian area became a hydrological system of braided channels. The remnants of 

the former floodplain are now arid, supporting mostly 

juniper and cholla cacti.

With the expansion of the cattle industry in the 1870s, 

severe erosion occurred in the Rio del Oso. Overgrazing 

caused massive decreases in vegetation cover, plant 

vigor, and the suppression of natural fires (Wozniak and 

others 1992). The floodplain, stripped of vegetation by 

grazing, became a labyrinth of arroyos when seasonal 

rains returned, following prolonged drought during the 

latter part of the nineteenth century. Presently, the Rio 

Figure 2. Visual model of the Rio del Oso landscape during Puebloan period (ca.1400). The 

Landscape was dominated by grassland, with juniper densities ranging from approximately 

five trees per hectare, to two trees-per-hectare. The light patches in the middle ground are 

Anasazi agricultural fields.

del Oso landscape has juniper densities of >50 tph, and 

pine densities of 15 tph (fig. 3).

My research of human land use and fire in riparian ecosystems has expanded to other areas in New 

Mexico, and the mountainous, forested landscapes of 

western Montana. The Rio Puerco study area, in New 

Mexico, was occupied for at least 10 millennia, as 

indicated by numerous archaeological sites. Soil thin 

section microscopy of samples collected from the Rio 

Puerco show that successive fires within riparian ecosystems, over approximately 7,000 years, have helped 

shape geomorphology and ecology through time. Thin 

section analysis of in situ burned sediments show that 

intensive fires, with high fuel loading, have changed 

soil structure in what was once a rich riparian habitat. 

I have found riparian fire events preserved in stratified 

sediments, which show periodic fire over thousands of 

years. In June 2004, I discovered a hearth in sediments 

upstream from one sampling area. Charcoal from this 

feature was dated to a conventional radiocarbon age of 

2170 BP (Beta – 196423). Although not directly associated with individual, large-scale riparian fire events, this 

type of archaeological evidence places humans in the 

area, using fire, during a period with frequent riparian 

fires (Billmoro 1993).

My research focuses on the local, landscape scale. 

Such studies can illuminate understanding of large, global 
562 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

scale, human-caused environmental change. Preindustrial 

burning of vegetation within watersheds added carbon 

to the atmosphere. Geoarchaeological analysis indicates 

that fire was one of the main tools that shaped vegetation 

patterns and soils. Regions are made up of such landscapes. The Anthropocene begins to emerge when we 

consider human-environmental activity at a local level, 

compounded by thousands of years, affecting vast areas 

of interlocking landscapes. Such change would have a 

lasting geological effect on a given area.

The physiographic alteration of soil and geomorphology, through successive land use, creates a human 

defined landscape. The cumulative and geographic expansion of such physically changed areas instigated the 

Anthropocene.

Human Perceptions and 

Communicating the Past

Although humans have had an effect on greenhouse 

gases for thousands of years, human-induced environmental change continues to take place on a local, 

landscape level. Localized activities, such as burning a 

landscape to provide better grazing for livestock, inject 

carbon into the atmosphere; clearing land to grow wetland rice produces methane. Cumulative land use, the 

repeated application of fire for example, can potentially 

change the physical structure of soils and their biochemistry (DeBano and others 1998:78). Over time, this type 

of influence would affect ecosystems at a landscape 

level. The local landscape may be the common scale at 

which humans change the Earth. In a sense, we can see 

the Anthropocene at the scale of human experience, the 

scale of landscape.

Within the ideology of ecological restoration is the 

goal of returning natural ecosystems to conditions 

resembling those of the past (Society for Ecological 

Restoration 1993). Ultimately, an understanding of a 

landscape’s historical processes and changing ecological 

dynamics applies to present management of environments. Ecological cycles, although of central importance 

in landscape dynamics, represent only one dimension 

of understanding. Human influences tend to change the 

developmental trajectory of ecosystems (Winterhalder 

1994:29-30).

A holistic understanding of human-environmental 

interactions is applicable to natural resource management, planning future conservation, and economic 

development. Environmental archaeology can describe 

ecological conditions that existed before people “overgrazed the land, put out all the fires, and liquidated most 

of the old-growth trees” (Covington and Moore 1994:45). 

The accumulation of excellent archaeological data can 

provide a way to visualize how layers of a cultural landscape fit within the ecological matrix of the floodplains, 

terraces, and mesas of a specific area.

Monitoring the environment implies visualizing; conflict over environmental issues often forms over how we 

see the past. There is a growing need for effective ways 

Figure 3. Today, the Rio del Oso landscape has juniper densities of >50 trees per hectare, and 

pine densities of >15 trees per hectare. The valley bottom has eroded 6 to 8 meters below 

the level attained at the end of Puebloan occupation.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 563

to communicate environmental planning and information 

to non-expert participants, and improving the quality of 

land management (Bishop 1994:61; Orland and others 

2001). Groups often hold disparate beliefs about the environment, how it should look, and be used or managed. 

This extends to how we may envision an ecosystem’s 

history, its present condition, and thus, its future. People 

often imagine past landscapes as idealized, preindustrial, 

pristine, and uninhabited. This view is contradicted by the 

complex archaeological record of thousands of years of 

human-environmental interactions throughout the globe 

(Baker and Biger 1992). The computer-generated visualizations of past landscapes, as depicted in the Rio del 

Oso study, create a common reference at the local scale. 

Using such methods to communicate past environmental 

conditions provides managers a greater range of choices 

for management.

Monitoring the Anthropocene

We can identify extensive and cumulative changes 

at local and regional scales, regardless of when humans 

began to affect the global atmosphere. Although we may 

be witnessing accelerated anthropogenic climate change 

today, humans have altered and managed landscapes 

through millennia. Successful management implementation, with the goal of sustained ecological health and 

resource production, is simply part of the continuum of 

human interactions with environments. Effective management decisions need to be depicted and implemented 

at the same landscape scale that our ancestors encountered when they were hunters and gatherers. Although 

large-scale industries significantly affect greenhouse 

gasses, carbon sequestration, habitat rehabilitation, 

and resource production can only be implemented on a 

given number of hectares at a time. Management decisions may be made on national, or even continental, 

levels, but making positive change begins with localized 

activity. Computer-aided visualization techniques help 

us view and monitor the Anthropocene. Studying how 

people have interacted with, altered, and created landscapes through time enhances our understanding of the 

Anthropocene’s complex dynamics.

Acknowledgments

I thank Dr. Joseph A. Tainer for inviting me to participate in this session, and Dr. Carol Raish for reviewing 

this article. My gratitude goes to Karin Periman for her 

valuable suggestions. Additionally, I thank former Rocky 

Mountain Research Station Director Denver Burns for 

his support throughout the Rio del Oso study.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 565

Globalization Then and Now: Increasing Scale Reduces 

Local Sustainability

Joseph A. Tainter, Project Leader, Cultural Heritage Research, USDA Forest Service, Rocky 

 Mountain Research Station, Albuquerque, NM

Abstract—One consequence of globalization is that parts of the world that were once 

remote and minimally infl uenced by broader political and economic developments 

now fi nd themselves profoundly affected by forces beyond their comprehension. 

Communities that were once self-suffi cient and resilient come to depend on larger 

systems, no longer control their own destinies, and confront adverse environmental 

changes. Such local consequences result from changes in the vertical scale of political 

and economic integration. While the term globalization is much used today, the processes 

vand consequences of globalization have been evident in human history for some time. 

This paper presents case studies of the effects of distinct episodes of globalization on 

historical and contemporary societies. Analyses of Epirus, Greece, and northern New 

Mexico show how disjunctures in scaling between information and power reduce local 

resiliency and sustainability. Changes in the scale of problems affecting localities impose 

a requirement for corresponding changes in the scale of environmental information that 

local community’s process.

Few matters seem more important today, or more urgent, than the issues of sustainability and resiliency in social and biophysical systems. One problem in addressing 

such issues is the change in scale that occurs when local people become embedded in 

larger systems at the national and international levels. Today we consider this to be part 

of the phenomenon termed “globalization,” a process that has widespread and lasting 

consequences. Globalization is not, however, a recent phenomenon. It has been part 

of the human experience since people began long-distance trade, and it has infl uenced 

the evolution of ecosystems for an equally long time. Episodes of globalization have 

social and environmental repercussions that may last centuries. Globalization produces 

consequences so far dispersed that the connection of cause and effect may be diffi cult 

to perceive.

While material and economic fl ows are its essence, globalization subtly infl uences 

the fl ow of information. A periphery incorporated into a global economy experiences 

change in the scale of economic and political relations, but the information pool 

remains primarily local. Not only do local populations lose autonomy, they may not 

know that they have done so. Being unaware of larger forces that affect them, local 

societies lose control of their destinies. As local autonomy disappears, dependency and 

environmental deterioration follow.

This disjuncture of scale became apparent when I read Sander van der Leeuw’s (1998; 

van der Leeuw and others 2000) and Sarah Green’s (1995, 1997a, 1997b, Green and 

others 1998, 1999) descriptions of historical changes in Epirus in the northwest of 

Greece. In both structure and process, they could have been describing changes with 

which I was familiar in my home state of New Mexico. How could such distant and 

unrelated places have experienced changes so parallel that their descriptions are almost 

interchangeable? The answer, I suggest, lies in the disjuncture in scaling of economic, 

political, and informational relations in world systems. This disjuncture has implications for how the relationship between global and local processes may be managed 

in the future.
566 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Epirus, Greece

Epirus has long been one of the most remote and 

inaccessible parts of Europe (fig. 1). This marginality derives from the mountain terrain that made travel 

difficult before paved roads. Epirus began to change 

substantially after World War II. In the aftermath of the 

civil war of 1946-49, upland cereal cultivation and most 

vineyards were abandoned. As gardens were abandoned, 

the fields were turned to pasture, and animal husbandry 

became dominant. Economic conditions forced workers 

to emigrate during the 1960s. Then from the late 1960s 

through the late 1970s many development projects were 

implemented, focusing on drainage, mechanized farming, 

electricity, paved roads, and irrigation.

Greece became a full member of the European Union 

in 1981, and thereafter the E.U.’s Common Agricultural 

Policy affected the region. Commercial agricultural 

production has greatly increased on the plains, while 

economic production has declined in the mountainous 

areas. There has been a steep reduction in transhumant 

pastoralism, and subsistence farming has sometimes been 

abandoned. Many young Epirotes immigrate to urban 

areas for work. Mountainous regions now have small, 

ageing populations, who live substantially on government 

pensions. Many who work elsewhere maintain a house 

in ancestral villages, to which they go during festivals 

and holidays, or for retirement. Some of these returnees 

cultivate vegetable gardens in the villages, using the land 

in a manner that Sarah Green characterizes as “suburban” 

(Green and others 1999: 10).

The transhumant pastoralist economy maintained 

mountain vegetation as a combination of woodlands 

and open meadows. With the decline in pastoralism and 

prohibition of burning, the mountain vegetation changed 

rapidly. Many areas have become overgrown with scrub 

Figure 1. Location of Epirus, Greece. Illustration by Joyce VanDeWater.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 567

vegetation. The higher elevations are now largely closed 

off to herbivores. Epirotes consider this a degradation of 

their landscape.

Epirote villages were formerly isolated and closed, 

most corporate activities were consensual, and knowledge was homogenous. There were few social, economic, 

or technical differences among people. As one informant 

described the situation, “Everyone knows everything 

about everybody else...” (Green 1995: 271).

As Sander van der Leeuw (1998) has described, substantial changes occurred since roads were introduced 

after World War II. The information pool began to differentiate. Villages acquired headmen, who now serve 

as intermediaries with the external world. Wage-earning 

brought social and economic differentiation. Cash became increasingly important, and people are stimulated 

to acquire material goods. In such a situation, “progressive” and “conservative” factions inevitably develop. 

There are now conflicts between personal and social 

interests. No longer does everyone know everything 

about everybody else.

Upon joining the E.U., Greece became a candidate 

for development projects. Incorporation into the E.U. 

brought new directions with the development funds. One 

E. U. program concerns the preservation and development of “marginal” areas.

The E.U. approach has been to “...focus on protecting, 

conserving or preserving what was increasingly seen as 

a ‘natural wilderness’ containing ‘traditional’ village 

settlements” (Green and others 1999: 49). The E. U. 

sought to develop the cultural heritage of mountainous 

areas by emphasizing eco-tourism, attracting visitors to 

an area of “unspoiled” natural beauty.

The E.U. program, in turn, influenced the Greek 

national administration. There is now greater concern 

to protect the environments of remote areas. Several 

national parks have been established, including one 

in Epirus, and they bring new regulations. One cannot 

graze animals within the national park, nor can one dig, 

drill, or build outside village limits. There are further 

bans on camping or lighting fires within the forests, 

on swimming in the rivers, and on clearing areas for 

cultivation.

These new restrictions generate predictable conflicts 

between local people and administrators. Projects have 

become enmeshed in village factionalism, with some 

residents favoring conservation and others preferring the 

development of better facilities and services. Among the 

new regulations, houses must be built of “traditional” local materials. These materials are now expensive, but no 

longer freely available. Those who can afford to build in 

such materials are ex-residents who return seasonally to 

the villages with savings from urban employment.

Older residents did not see the landscape as an external, objective entity, but as the place in which they live, 

and of which they are a part. Now Epirus is presented 

dialectically as the converse of the urban environment. 

The environment is to have its architecture and cultural 

practices frozen in an “original” traditional form, while 

the landscape is to be kept, or even made, “natural” by 

removing the local people and their traditional activities. 

The people and the landscape are marketed to those who 

travel to experience “authentic,” indigenous places.

Once initiated, E.U. projects become part of local 

social, political, and economic relations. On the local 

level, E.U. projects are not about heritage tourism or 

protecting the environment. A successful project from the 

Epirote perspective is one that has become enmeshed in 

social relations. It is important to involve many people, 

and have them benefit economically. This appears to 

Brussels as corruption.

In the urban ethos, culture happens in villages and 

during festivals, while nature is the wilderness outside 

villages. To the local opponents of E.U. projects, the 

“wilderness” that is to be preserved is seen as grazing 

lands, sources of wood, and fields, even if disused and 

overgrown. The removal of human activity from the 

landscape, in turn, diminishes cultural heritage.

As local self-sufficiency declined, the region has 

become dependent on the commercial economy and the 

government. Becoming embedded in larger systems has 

meant a transformation from autonomy and self-sufficiency to dependency and environmental deterioration.

Northern New Mexico

Spanish explorers of New Mexico found Indians 

living in settled villages they labeled “pueblos.” These 

were soon joined by Hispano farmers. The last to arrive 

is the group known locally as Anglo-Americans. This 

discussion emphasizes the Hispanic settlers of New 

Mexico, and the consequences of their absorption into 

the United States.

Beginning in the 17th century, the economic basis 

of colonial New Mexico was provided by a system of 

granting lands to both Pueblos and Hispanos (fig. 2). New 

Mexico was administered stintingly as a missionary obligation. There was little money and few firearms. Priests 

were in short supply, and visitors commented adversely 

on the way that ceremonies were performed.

Colonial New Mexico was one of the most distant 

outposts of the Spanish world empire. Metal was so 

scarce that plows were tipped in wood. Archaeological 

sites show that some colonists experimented in making 

stone tools, at which they were not adept (Chapman and 
568 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 2. Land grants of the middle and northern Rio Grande basin (after Scurlock 1998: 111). Illustration by 

Joyce VanDeWater.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 569

others 1977). Houses contained no furniture except that 

produced locally. Books and schooling were rare. As 

early as 1776, a visiting priest found the local language 

to be full of archaicisms and hard to understand. During 

the period of Mexican independence, New Mexico was 

referred to as Mexico’s Siberia (de Buys 1995).

Within land grants, individual houses and fields were 

privately owned. If the grant contained suitable river 

valley, each settler would have a strip of land extending 

linearly from the river to the main ditch. These lands 

were divided among a farmer’s sons, so that Hispano 

fields became renowned for their narrowness. Beyond 

the cultivated lands lay the commons, used for grazing 

or timber cutting. Depending on terrain, there might be 

high mountains beyond the common lands.

With independence, Mexico opened its borders, and 

American traders descended on Santa Fe. They brought 

manufactured goods, which soon began to transform New 

Mexico. To obtain such goods took surplus production 

and cash. When war broke out in 1846, New Mexico 

quickly became part of the United States.

Two institutions united rural New Mexico: the church 

and the irrigation system. Since colonial New Mexico 

lacked governing institutions at the local level, ditch associations are to this day often the only local government. 

Villages were organized by kinship and cultural uniformity. Many villages are isolated, gaining paved ingress 

only in the 1960s, and telephones and television in the 

1970s. Everyone in a community had personal knowledge of everybody else (Harper and others 1943, Horvath 

1979, Kutsche and Van Ness 1981, Rivera 1998).

Hispanic villages’ poverty shielded them initially from 

the full force of the Anglo-American economy. Without 

schools, English penetrated slowly. Village land, however, was vulnerable. Land grants had to be confirmed in 

American courts. At first the villagers understood little 

of the new judicial requirements, and were unaware that 

their lands might be in jeopardy. Soon lands started to be 

lost for failure to pay taxes that villagers did not know 

they owed. Sometimes Hispanos continued to occupy 

these places, unaware that they had lost ownership years 

before. Lawyers who were retained to establish the claim 

to a grant could only be paid with part of the same land. 

Lands beyond the grants that had been available for 

anyone’s use became public domain.

As the land base shrunk, Hispanos lost the ability 

to produce sufficient food. They were pushed off large 

tracts of pasture. Men had to leave villages to work on the 

railroads or in Colorado mines. More and more became 

dependent on contractual sheep-raising (de Buys 1985, 

Rothman 1989).

Loggers cut the timber from thousands of hectares of 

forests, with no thought for regeneration. These lands 

became an early target for scientific management when 

the Forest Service was established in 1906. The largest 

timber-cutting operation exemplified how quickly New 

Mexico had become integrated into the world economy. It 

was undertaken in response to the building of the Panama 

Canal. To remain competitive, the railroads decided to 

increase speed and efficiency by laying a second set of 

tracks. The operations to produce the 16 million railroad 

ties logged every suitable stick up to the tree line.

Anglo-American ranchers soon overstocked the grasslands. Drought in the 1890s precipitated erosion that is 

still underway. An area such as the Rio Puerco Valley 

was largely abandoned when the Rio Puerco itself became deeply entrenched. Topsoil was washed away, and 

grasses could not grow as quickly as they were grazed. 

Woodlands extended downward in elevation, into former 

grasslands (de Buys 1985, Rothman 1989).

As the environment and traditional economy of New 

Mexico deteriorated, the Hispanic and Indian cultures 

and the area’s natural beauty attracted artists and intellectuals. In small, communal villages they believed that 

they would find to antidote to urban life. The artists and 

intellectuals understood that Hispanic village culture 

could not be preserved without an economic basis. Their 

solution was that Hispanos would become artisans and 

craftsmen. They would produce “traditional” arts and 

crafts for a burgeoning tourist market. An idealized version of traditional architecture became the norm in Santa 

Fe and elsewhere. “Traditional” festivals were created 

anew for Santa Fe and Taos.

In the Great Depression, many New Mexicans survived on government relief. Today many Hispanos rely 

on government subsidies, commute to jobs in cities, or 

have moved to cities. They may return to the home village for weekends and holidays. For those who remain 

in the villages, or maintain close ties to them, there is 

perpetual struggle. Many keep small cattle herds, which 

must have a permit to graze on the Forest Service land 

that Hispanos still consider theirs. The Forest Service 

regulates access to all resources on its lands, including 

the timbers needed for traditional construction. The 

region continues to receive funds for development, but 

projects become socially embedded, and part of both 

kin relations and local politics. Contracts are frequently 

given to relatives, qualified or not, leading to charges 

of corruption.

There is conflict with a new adversary, environmentalists. This conflict concerns the environmentalist value of 

using forested lands little or not at all, and the Hispanic 

tradition of using forest resources as necessary. Affluent 

environmentalists know how to impede agencies such 

as the Forest Service. The villagers, who still depend on 

the forests for such vital needs as winter firewood, are 
570 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

reduced to asserting heritage, identity, and traditional 

rights (de Buys 1985, Forrest 1989, Rodriguez 1987, 

Raish 2000).

Summary and Discussion

Epirus and New Mexico are separated by history, 

geography, and tradition. Yet they display congruence 

in structure and process, in form and substance, and 

even in such minute details as the encroachment of 

woodlands into former grasslands, and the relationship 

of traditional architecture to national land management 

policies (table 1).

In both regions, formidable terrain and economic marginality kept villages isolated, closed, autonomous, and 

self-sufficient. The pool of information was homogenous, 

and everyone knew everything about everybody else. 

Environments were maintained to support the subsistence regime. In both areas, the end of isolation brought 

manufactured goods, so that self-sufficiency declined 

and cash became increasingly important.

Life within villages began to differentiate. Men emigrated to find work. People acquired new information 

about the larger world, and about opportunities and ways 

of doing things. Village information pools lost homogeneity. It was no longer possible to know everything about 

everybody else. Communities bifurcated into “progressive” and “conservative” factions. Personal and group 

interests began to conflict.

As traditional subsistence practices declined, the biophysical environment lost the capacity to support such 

practices. Fire stopped being used to control vegetation. 

In both places there has been growth of undesirable 

woody plants, and increased erosion.

Many people now survive on government subsidies. 

Traditional cultural practices have become difficult to 

maintain in the face of “modernity,” and without an adequate economic base. Upland forests and lands are now 

controlled by national governments. There is frequent 

conflict between villagers and land managers. Traditional 

resources are now regulated or proscribed by national 

policies. Traditional architecture is either encouraged 

or mandated, yet there is no longer free access to the 

raw materials that it requires, and many cannot afford to 

buy such materials. In both regions, émigrés return for 

holidays and other special occasions, and use ancestral 

villages in a manner than can be labeled “suburban.”

Outsiders are concerned to preserve the natural 

beauty and cultural traditions of both regions. External 

organizations promote projects to integrate economic 

development with preservation. The natural beauty and 

cultural heritage of both areas are now marketed by urban 

residents to other urban residents. The landscapes are 

to be managed to match an urban conception of nature. 

Heritage is to be preserved rather than lived. Divorced 

from its connection to land use, cultural heritage is 

to be expressed as craft products and performances. 

Development projects become socially embedded within 

each region, which outsiders consider corruption. In response to outside pressures, both regions are developing 

explicit manifestations of cultural identity that mobilize 

local people even as they reinforce stereotypes.

The parallel transformations in Epirus and New 

Mexico arose from these regions becoming enmeshed 

in commercial systems, and controlled by national governments that are themselves embedded within larger 

systems. For places like Epirus and New Mexico, the 

scale of their economic and political contexts has grown 

from the locality to the national government, and to the 

international community. The scale of information has 

not kept pace with these developments. In this regard, 

Epirotes and New Mexicans are like people everywhere. 

Their scale of information is local. The information that 

Table 1. Aspects of Convergent Evolution in Epirus and New Mexico.

1. Remote areas incorporated into world economy.

2. Villages differentiate socially, economically, and in information pool.

3. Emigration for work.

4. Progressive and conservative factions develop.

5. Traditional subsistence practices decline.

6. Environment loses capacity to support traditional economy due to decline in human maintenance.

7. People depend on government subsidies.

8. Traditional culture becomes difficult to sustain.

9. Upland forests controlled by national governments.

10. Traditional resource use limited or proscribed.

11. Young adults return to villages for holidays.

12. External organizations promote preservation of landscapes and cultural practices.

13. Culture divorced from land use; fossilized as crafts and performances.

14. Natural beauty and cultural heritage marketed by urban residents to other urban residents.

15. Landscapes managed to match urban conception of nature.

16. Development projects socially embedded.

17. Increasing expression of ethnic identity.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 571

matters is that which pertains to local affairs: community, politics, employment, government services, and 

the like.

In an age of globalization, this inclination to value 

local information conflicts with the scale of events and 

processes that affect localities. There is, for example, 

much concern in New Mexico about water. In 1998 

I challenged participants in a conference to consider 

the connection between irrigation agriculture in the 

Rio Grande Basin and the East Asian economic crisis 

that was then underway. The connection is through 

Intel Corporation’s chip manufacturing plant near 

Albuquerque, which uses great quantities of water. To 

the extent that the East Asian economic crisis might 

cause Intel to reduce its output of chips, and thus to use 

less water, it could be possible to perpetuate irrigation as 

well as the cultural traditions that are linked to it (Tainter 

1999). Today, in updating this analysis, we would wish 

to explore the connections among irrigation agriculture, 

Intel’s manufacturing output, and the SARS virus. The 

lesson is that unless New Mexicans, Epirotes, and other 

local people become knowledgeable about the full range 

of factors that affect them, they will continue to be vulnerable to distant processes, and to those who profit from 

their ignorance.

One implication of this discussion is that local social 

and environmental problems that arise from processes 

at the national and international levels must in part be 

addressed at those same levels. If globalization is the 

source of a local problem, then addressing only the local 

manifestation will likely prove ineffective and frustrating. Land managers, and land-managing agencies, who 

address only the local manifestations of large-scale 

problems, will probably fail. The broader context will 

simply continue to generate the problem.

A common exhortation of the environmental movement is to think globally but act locally. The problem we 

encounter is that most people do not think globally. In 

our history as a species there has never been selective 

pressure to do so. The question facing those affected 

by globalization is: How do we change a behavior pattern that is so ingrained, and that previously conferred 

survival value?

Perhaps a radical change in how people think could 

be accomplished through the education system. There 

would need to be programs to teach children, starting at 

a young age and continuing through all levels, to think 

about systems and interconnections at all scales. Students 

would be trained to consider global processes that affect local viability, whether a new virus, the economy 

of far-off lands, or distant political upheavals. They 

would be taught to think at all scales, to be curious about 

things that are distant in space and time, and to sense 

connections that are not obvious. It would be an attempt 

to make thinking about the connection of the global to the 

local so ingrained that, within a generation or two, it becomes normal and unremarkable. As the populace comes 

to think more broadly, politicians, business leaders, and 

managers would learn, and be expected, to do so as well. 

Journalists, sensing new needs and new opportunities, 

would also explore global connections.

This proposal is, of course, not a panacea. Not all 

people would be inclined to pursue global analysis, 

although it is still worthwhile that they be familiar with 

it. Among those who are so inclined, the understandings 

they develop will often not be accurate. Yet all that would 

be required is for enough persons to implement their 

training in global thinking to lead the rest. Intermediaries 

would emerge who would facilitate the transmission of 

global information to local communities. Books, magazines, and television broadcasts, showing the connection 

between global and local, would expand in response to 

an increased market.

This idea is radical, utopian, and perhaps unrealistic. Yet today’s globalization demands that we attempt 

something like it. The only certainty is that failing to try 

such a course will condemn many places to follow Epirus 

and New Mexico down a bewildering slide into poverty, 

dependency, and environmental degradation.

Acknowledgments

I am pleased to express my appreciation to Joyce 

VanDeWater for preparing figures 1 and 2, to Sander 

van der Leeuw for making the Epirus research materials available to me, and to Sander and Carol Raish for 

comments on parts of this research.

References

Chapman, Richard C.; Biella, Jan V.; Schutt, Jeanne A.; Enloe, 

James G.; Marchiando, Patricia J.; Warren, A. H.; Stein, 

John R. 1977. Description of twenty-seven sites in the 

permanent pool of Cochiti Reservoir. In Chapman, Richard 

C; Biella, Jan V; with Bussey, Stanley D., eds. Archeological 

investigations in Cochiti Reservoir, New Mexico, volume 

2: excavation and analysis 1975 season. Albuquerque, 

NM: Office of Contract Archeology, Department of 

Anthropology, University of New Mexico: 119-359.

DeBuys, William. 1985. Enchantment and exploitation: the 

life and hard times of a New Mexico mountain range. 

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press.

Forrest, Suzanne. 1989. The preservation of the village: New 

Mexico’s Hispanics and the New Deal. Albuquerque: 

University of New Mexico Press.

Green, S. 1995. Contemporary change in use and perception 

of the landscape in Epirus: an ethnographic study. In 
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van der Leeuw, S. E., ed. Understanding the natural and 

anthropogenic causes of soil degradation and desertification 

in the Mediterranean Basin, volume 1: land degradation in 

Epirus. Brussels: Draft Report to Directorate General XII 

of the European Commission.

Green, S. F. 1997a. Pogoni, Epirus (Greece). In Winder, N; 

van der Leeuw, S. E., eds. Environmental perception and 

policy making: cultural and natural heritage and the preservation of degradation-sensitive environments in southern 

Europe, volume one: perception, policy, and unforeseen 

consequences: an interdisciplinary synthesis. Brussels: 

Draft Report to Directorate General XII of the European 

Commission: 45-64.

Green, S. F. 1997b. Environmental perception and policy 

making: cultural and natural heritage and the preservation 

of degradation-sensitive environments in southern Europe, 

volume three: notes on the making and nature of margins 

in Epirus. Winder, N.; van der Leeuw, S. E., eds. Brussels: 

Draft Report to Directorate General XII of the European 

Commission, Brussels.

Green, S. F.; King, G. P. C.; Nitsiakos, V.; van der Leeuw, S. 

E. 1998. Landscape perception in Epirus in the late 20th 

century. In van der Leeuw, S. E., ed. The Archaeomedes 

Project: understanding the natural and anthropogenic causes 

of land degradation and desertification in the Mediterranean 

Basin. Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the 

European Communities: 329-359.

Green, S. F.; Servain-Courant, S.; Papapetrou, V.; Nitsiakos, V.; 

King, G. P. C.. 1999. Policy-relevant models of the natural 

and anthropogenic dynamics of degradation and desertification and their spatio-temporal manifestations, volume 2: 

negotiating perceptions of fragile environments in Epirus, 

northwestern Greece. Brussels: Draft final report of the 

archaeomedes ii Research Project, submitted to Directorate 

General XII of the European Commission.

Harper, Allan G.; Cordova, Andrew R.; Oberg, Kalervo. 

1943. Man and resources in the middle Rio Grande valley. 

Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press.

Horvath, Steven M., Jr. 1979. The social and political organization of the genízaros of Plaza de Nuestra Señora de los 

Delores de Belén, New Mexico, 1740-1812. Ph.D. dissertation, Department of Anthropology, Brown University.

Kutsche, Paul; Van Ness, John R. 1981. Cañones: values, crisis, 

and survival in a northern New Mexican village. Salem, 

Wisconsin: Sheffield Publishing Company.

Raish, Carol. 2000. Environmentalism, the Forest Service, and 

the Hispano communities of northern New Mexico. Society 

and Natural Resources 13: 489-508.

Rivera, José A. 1998. Acequia culture: water, land, and community in the Southwest. Albuquerque: University of New 

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Rodriguez, Sylvia. 1989. Land, water, and ethnic identity in 

Taos. In Biggs, Charles L.; Van Ness, John R., eds. Land, 

water, and culture: new perspectives on Hispanic land 

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Mountain Research Station, General Technical Report 

RMRS-GTR-5.

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world: understanding scale and context. In Finch, Deborah 

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human action. New York: Columbia University Press: 

357-383.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 573

Natural Processes and Impacts
574 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

One of the aims of the forest management is the search 

for new inventory and planning methods of the forest 

ecosystems, particularly in an era in which discussions 

on the conservation and promotion of biodiversity are 

rivaled, by the increase in the demand of forest products. 

A gradual transformation of medium- and long term 

silvicultural policy is taking place with the abolishment 

of even-aged pure forests and a greater preference of 

uneven-aged mixed forests. For such ecosystems indices that quantitatively characterize the structure and 

diversity are required. Uneven-aged forest management 

has become an important factor significantly influencing forestry research. The challenge is to obtain the new 

indicators of sustainability of forest resources.

The indices for characterizing the structure and diversity of the ecosystems allow a better reproduction of the 

condition of the forest in a given moment and of its evolution in time. Such indices would have to be considered 

in addition to conventional variables such as diameter, 

height, basal area, volume, age, and density, in order to 

achieve a better description of the stands.

The objective of this work is to discuss variables for 

the quantitative description of the structure and diversity 

of forest ecosystems. The characterization levels considered include species diversity and structure, spatial 

structure and the dimensional diversity of the ecosystem. 

Case studies results of the application of such indices in 

Mexican forests are presented.

Species Diversity and 

Structure

Index H’ of Shannon

The Shannon index (Shannon 1948) is one of the most 

employed variables for the estimation of species diversity; for its determination is employed the formulation:

H′ = − pi

i=1

s

∑ ⋅ ln p( )i

S = number of present species

pi = proportion of the species pi = ni / N

Ni = number of individuals of the species i

N = total number of trees

As an example of the application of this index the 

following types of ecosystems with different species 

composition are presented. These conditions were found 

in forest ecosystems in the Federal State of Nuevo León, 

Mexico:

- 100% Pinus pseudostrobus; H' = 0.00

- 80% P. pseudostrobus, 20% Quercus rysophylla; 

H' = 0.50

- 50% P. pseudostrobus, 20% Q. rysophylla; H' = 

0.69

- 70% P. pseudostrobus, 20% Q. rysophylla; 10% 

Juniperus flaccida; H' = 0.80

The value H' increases according as a greater number of species occurs and the individuals proportion 

of the species is more homogeneous. H' depends not 

Assessment and Monitoring of Forest Ecosystem Structure

Oscar A. Aguirre Calderón, Facultad de Ciencias Forestales, U.A.N.L., Apartado Postal 65, 

67700 Linares, N. L., México

Javier Jiménez Pérez, and Horst Kramer

Abstract—Characterization of forest ecosystems structure must be based on quantitative indices that allow objective analysis of human influences or natural succession 

processes. The objective of this paper is the compilation of diverse quantitative variables 

to describe structural attributes from the arboreal stratum of the ecosystem, as well as 

different methods of forest inventory to obtain such indices.

For the evaluation of the species structure the indices of Shannon H’ and species profile 

A, segregation S of Pielou and the species mingling index Mi are discussed. The aggregation index R of Clark & Evans and the contagion index Wi, were included in order to 

describe the horizontal structure of the ecosystem. Finally, for the characterization of 

the dimensional structure, the homogeneity coefficient H and the indices of diameter 

differentiation TDi and height differentiation THi were analyzed.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 575

only on the number of species present in an ecosystem, 

but on the frequency with which they are represented 

(Pommerening 2002).

Species Profile A

To characterize the vertical structure of the species of 

a forest ecosystem, Pretzsch (1996) based on the index of 

Shannon, developed the variable profile of species A:

A = −

i=1

s

∑ pij

j=1

z

∑ ⋅ ln( ) pij

S = number of present species

Z = number of height strata (3 in this case)

Pij = proportion of species in the height strata

pij = nij

N

nij = number of individuals of the species i in the 

zone j

N = total number of trees

Pretzsch defines three strata for the application of the 

index A; stratum I comprises from 80 percent to 100 

percent of the maximum height of the trees; stratum II 50 

percent to 80 percent and stratum III 0 to 50 percent.

Differing from the index of Shannon, index A characterizes the location of the species in different height 

strata. A takes values between 0 and a maximum value 

A. A value A of 0 means that the stand consists of only 

one species that occurs in one sole stratum. A maximum 

is obtained when all of the species occur in the same 

proportion in the stand as well as in the different strata.

In an ecosystem constituted by 11 arboreal species, 

values of A = 2.07 and Amaximum = 3.50 were obtained.

Segregation Index S of Pielou

The segregation index S of Pielou (1961) describes 

the combination or mingling of two species, that is, the 

spatial classification of a species in relation to the other. 

This index is based on the ratio between the observed 

and the expected number of mixed pairs. To obtain it 

the species of all the trees of a given surface and that 

of their nearest neighbor is determined, obtaining the 

number of individuals of the species 1 and 2 (m, n), as 

well as the number of trees with neighbors of the same 

species (a, d) and neighbors of different species (c, b). 

The index S is obtained then as:

 observed number of mixed pairs

 expected number of mixed pairs

S=1-

S is calculated as of the following data:

nearest neighbor

species 1species 2total

reference treespecies 1abm

reference treespecies 2cdn

vwN

through the formulation:

S =1− N ⋅( ) b + c

( ) v ⋅ n +w⋅ m

S takes values of -1 to 1; -1 represents the maximum 

possible mutual attraction among the two species, 0 

shows an independent distribution and 1 corresponds 

to the maximum possible positive segregation. Values 

of S < 0 mean an association between the species; S > 0 

corresponds to a segregation, this is, spatial separation 

of the species.

In figure 1 two fractions of ecosystems with different 

distribution of the species are presented. In the area a) 

S = - 0.72, by it the species present an evident association; opposite to the foregoing, in the area b) with a 

value of S = 0.79, a clear segregation of the species is 

observed.

Figure 1. Index of segregation S 

of Pielou for two fractions of 

ecosystems.
576 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Species Mingling Index Mi

The species mingling index Mi is defined for a reference tree and its four nearest neighbors as the relative 

proportion of neighboring trees of different species 

(Gadow 1999). This index was developed in order to 

avoid the limitation of the index of Shannon, which does 

not allow inferring information on the spatial distribution 

(vertical and horizontal) from the species. Forests with 

equal H' can present a very different spatial distribution 

of the trees.

The species mingling index is obtained from the 

function:

Mi = 1

n

mij

j=1

n

∑

mij takes a value 0 when the neighbor belongs to the 

same species of the reference tree; otherwise it has a 

value of 1.

Since small mij it is a discrete binary variable, capital 

Mi can take the following values:

0.0 when all the individuals of the group (five) belong 

to the same species; 

0.25 when one of the neighbors of the reference tree 

belongs to other species;

0.50 if two of the neighboring trees belong to other 

species

0.75 if three of the neighbors of the reference tree 

belongs to other species and

1.00 if the neighboring four of the reference tree belong to different species

The middle species mingling value is calculated 

through:

M = 1

N

Mi

i=1

n

∑

N = number of trees in the stand

Figure 2 shows species mingling values for a stand of 

Picea chihuahuana, Abies durangensis and Cupressus 

lindley in the Federal State of Durango, Mexico. The 

mingling distribution of Picea chihuahuana shows that 

the species is surrounded by either three or even four 

neighbors that belong to a different species. In contrast, 

Cupressus lindleyi occurs in a variety of mingling constellations: either in pure groups (about 10 percent), in 

groups where half of the trees are Cupressus lindleyi

(about 35 percent) and in groups where none of the 

neighbors is Cupressus lindleyi (about 10 percent). Abies 

durangensis does not form pure or almost pure groups, 

but occurs most frequently as a single tree among other 

species.

Spatial Structure

Index of Aggregation R of Clark & 

Evans

The aggregation index R of Clark & Evans (1954) 

describes the degree of regularity in the distribution of 

tree positions. This index is based on the relationships of 

distance between neighboring trees and, although widely 

used in botany and vegetation science, is rather unknown 

in the practice of forestry. It is simply calculated as the 

ratio between the observed and expected average distance 

for a random distribution between neighbouring trees:

 r observed

 r expected

R=

R takes on a value of 1 if the distribution of tree positions is random and trends toward zero with increasing 

aggregation. The maximum possible value is 2.15. 

Values greater than 1 indicate increasing tendency to 

regularity.

The index of Clark & Evans is based on the relationships of distance between neighboring trees. For all the 

trees N of a surface A the distances ri, i = 1. N to their 

nearest neighbor are obtained. The mean distance is 

calculated through:

r observed = ri

i=1

N

∑

N

Figure 2. Distribution 

of the species 

mingling index in a 

mixed ecosystem.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 577

r observed is related to the mean distance expected for 

the random distribution of the trees:

r expected = 1

2 N A

An example is presented in the figure 3, showing the 

distribution of the trees in fractions of two stands of 

pine-oak in Northeastern Mexico’s. Stand a) has a value 

of R = 0.98, that indicates a random distribution of the 

trees. In stand b) R is 0.89, thus presents a distribution 

with trend to the conformation of groups.

Contagion Index Wi

The contagion index Wi (Hui and Gadow, 2002, 

Aguirre and others 2003) describes the regularity of the 

distribution of the neighboring trees to a reference tree. 

The determination of this index is based on the measurement of the angles between two neighbors of the 

reference tree and its comparison with a standard angle 

obtained through:

αo = 360/n ± 360/10n

n = number of neighboring trees considered

The contagion index Wi is then defined by the proportion of the smaller angles α to the standard angle α0:

Wi = 1

n

wij

j=1

n

∑

wij has a value = 1 when the jth angle between two next 

neighboring trees is smaller or equal to the standard angle 

α0, otherwise it takes a value of 0.

If n = 4, Wi can present the following values:

0.0 if none of the angles is smaller to standard 

angle,

0.25 if one of the angles is smaller to standard 

angle,

0.50 when two of the angles α are smaller to standard 

angle,

0.75 if three of the angles α are smaller to standard 

angle, and

1.0 when the four angles α are smaller to standard 

angle.

The average value of the contagion index is calculated 

through:

W = 1

N

wi

i

N

∑

Values of W 0.5 correspond to a random distribution of the trees, those greater to this value represent a 

grouping trend. Smaller values indicate a trend towards 

regularity. For the ecosystems of figure 4 W = 0.53 indicates a random distribution of the trees while W = 0.59 

corresponds to a trend to a grouping of the trees.

Dimensional Diversity

Homogeneity Coefficient H

The homogeneity of a stand can easily be described 

through the employment of the homogeneity coefficient 

(H) of De Camino. H is expressed through the percent 

relationship between number of trees and volume by 

diameter classes (De Camino 1976). In a totally homogeneous forest all the trees have the same volume; in 

heterogeneous one a high percentage of trees represent 

a small proportion of volume, while few individuals 

contribute with the greater proportion of the volume.

The homogeneity coefficient H is determined 

through:

H =

SN%

i=1

n−1

∑

SN%− SV%

i=1

n−1

∑

Figure 3. Index of 

Clark & Evans for 

two ecosystems 

w i t h d i f f e r e n t 

h o r i z o n t a l 

structure.
578 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

SN% = sum of the percentages of number of trees to 

the diameter class i

SV% = sum of the percentages of volume to the diameter class i

Figure 5 shows the homogeneity coefficients (H) 

obtained in the unthinned and thinned fractions of a 

stand of Pinus cooperi and P. leiophylla, as well as the 

corresponding Lorenz curves. A greater homogeneity of 

the thinned area is observed here, the H value is greater 

(6.03) and the Lorenz curve is found accordingly nearer 

the reference line.

Dimension Differentiation Indices

The dimension differentiation indices describe the 

relationship between a given tree and its nearest neighbor 

and are defined by the quotient between a dimensional 

variable of the smaller tree and the corresponding of 

the bigger tree, subtracted form 1. The diameter differentiation TDi

, for example, is obtained through the 

function:

TDi = 1

n

tdij

j=1

n

∑

tdij is derived from the relationship of the diameters from 

neighboring trees deducted from 1:

tdij =1− smaller d1.3i ,d ( ) 1.3 j

bigger d1.3i ,d ( ) 1.3 j

The middle diameter differentiation value is:

TD = 1

N

TDi

i=1

N

∑

N = number of trees of the stand

A TDi value of 0 means that both trees have the same 

diameter. As the difference of the diameters increases, 

the value of TDi also grows.

Other dimensional variables may similarly be employed in addition to the diameter differentiation TDi. 

These would include, for example, the indices of height 

differentiation THi, and of crown cover differentiation 

TKSi (Aguirre and others 1998, Jiménez and others 1998, 

Del Río and others 2003).

Figure 6 shows the distribution of the trees of a mixed 

forest in the classes of diameter differentiation 0.0-0.2, 

0.2-0.4, etc. For Pinus pseudostrobus a greater proportion of the trees present a scarce diameter differentiation 

with respect to their neighbors (class 0.0-0.2); Quercus 

rysophylla shows a similar frequency, which has more 

than half of the cases with a diameter difference to their 

next neighbor smaller than 20 percent. Juniperus flaccida behaved differently in that the greater proportion of 

trees shows differences of diameter between 40 and 60 

percent (class 0.4-0.6).

The frequency of height differentiation classes for the 

previous species is observed in here. Pinus pseudostrobus

presents smaller height differentiation that the rest of the 

species, about 60 percent of the trees has values smaller 

Figure 4. Distribution of the trees in the contagion index Wi, in two stands with different horizontal distribution.

Figure 5. Homogeneity coefficients and Lorenz curve for the 

unthinned and thinned fractions of an ecosystem.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 579

Figure 7. Distribution of the trees in the classes of height 

differentiation.

than 0.2 (fig. 7). In contrast to diameter differentiation, 

Juniperus flaccida showed a minor height differentiation, 

while for Quercus rysophylla the tree frequency in the 

class 0.6-0.8 is increased, this is, more than 20 percent 

of the trees showed a height differentiation greater than 

60 percent.

Concluding Remarks

The indices considered in this paper constitute an 

alternative for the evaluation and monitoring of the structure and diversity of forest ecosystems on quantitative 

grounds. The application of such indices in an integral 

method of forest inventory allows a better description, 

Figure 6. Distribution of the trees in the classes of diameter 

differentiation.

reproduction and monitoring of ecosystems, as well as 

the development of indicators of sustainability of forest 

resources management.

Acknowledments

This research was supported by: Consejo Nacional de 

Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT), Mexico, Project: 

41181-Z; Comisión Nacional Forestal, Mexico, Project 

CONAFOR-2002-C01-6054, and Universidad Autónoma 

de Nuevo León.

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Biodiversity is a global endowment of nature. 

Conservation of biodiversity includes all species of 

plants, animals and other organisms, the range of genetic 

stocks within each species, and ecosystem diversity. 

Food, many types of medicine and industrial products 

are provided by the biological resources that are the basis of life on Earth. The value of the Earth’s biological 

resources can be broadly classified as direct and indirect. 

Consumptive and productive uses are direct values, 

whereas non-consumptive uses and options for the future 

constitute indirect values. One of the most fundamental 

direct benefits of biological resources is in providing the 

world’s food. Wild species have also provided many of 

our medicines.

Ensuring conservation of biodiversity is one of humankind’s important global responsibilities. Consequently, 

biodiversity has become a growing concern of central 

significance to all sectors of society. In Chapter 13 of 

Agenda 21, adopted at the United Nations Conference on 

Environment and Development (UNCED 1992), mountains are defined as “storehouses of biological diversity 

and endangered species.” This great wealth of biological 

diversity is attributed to the wide variety of environments 

in the mountains, particularly the Himalayas.

Hence, UNCED gave biodiversity an important 

place on the agenda. Over 150 states have now signed 

the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), which 

entered into force at the end of 1993. By 1994, several countries from Asia and Pacific had ratified the 

Convention. Nepal was the 34th nation in the world and 

the 14th nation in the then Asia–Pacific region to ratify 

the Convention, on 23 November 1993. The Convention 

is a framework agreement that allows individual countries to determine how most of its provisions are to be 

implemented.

The Himalayan region is the largest, highest, and most 

populous mountain chain in the world, and it is one of 

the world’s richest ecosystems in terms of biological 

diversity. Extreme variations in altitude, aspect, geology, 

and soils over short distances have resulted in a wealth of 

natural ecosystems. The Himalayas are home to hundreds 

of endemic plant species and some of the world’s rarest 

wildlife species. These rich biological resources have 

traditionally served as the foundation for the economic 

and cultural life of mountain people.

The Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region is host to 

the world’s highest ecosystems. Extending over 3,500 

km the region of different types of environments, these 

mountain environments are extremely rich in biodiversity because of the varied altitude, climatic conditions, 

geological-biophysical conditions, and soil formations. 

Historically, human interactions with mountain environments have further enriched biodiversity, in particular 

the distribution patterns of plants, animals, and genetic 

diversity. For example, a long list of medicinal materials 

can be found in the higher mountains, and these provide 

actual and potential benefits. This fact is illustrated by 

an annual fair held in Dali in Yunnan province, China, 

where as many as 550 species of medicinal herbs and 

hundreds of food plants are traded by the mountain 

people. The conservation of such biodiversity through 

sustainable use also improves the standards of living 

and the cultural diversity of the existing population. 

The botanical wealth of the Indian Himalayas and 

Nepal consists of more than 8,000 species belonging to 

200 families; about 30 percent of the Himalayan flora 

is endemic. Nine thousand plant species have been 

reported in the virgin forests of Eastern Himalayas of 

which 3,500 or 39 percent are endemic to the region. 

The total number of species of plants in the Hindu 

Kush-Himalayan Region is estimated to be as many as 

25,000 or 10 percent of the world’s flora.

Human beings use the environment heavily. Projected 

population growth and economic activity will mean loss 

of biodiversity at a greater rate. Although biological 

resources are renewable, their overuse is usually associated with loss of biodiversity. Among the major threats 

are overexploitation of forest and vegetation resources 

for fuel, fodder, manure, grazing, fishing, and hunting, 

expansion of agricultural land for an ever-increasing 

population, and the practice of slash-and-burn agriculture 

in mountain regions.

Biological resources are deteriorating rapidly throughout the world, primarily because of unsustainable 

International Center for Himalayan Biodiversity 

(ICHB): Conserving Himalayan Biodiversity—A Global 

Responsibility

Ram Bhandari, Coordinator, International Centre for Himalayan Biodiversity, 

ICHB Secretariat
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 581

approaches used in human activities, leading to the following changes and potential impacts:

A decline in biological diversity, as evidenced by 

accelerating extinction of species and the destruction, modification, and fragmentation of habitats and 

ecosystems at all scales.

A decline in the health and functioning of ecosystems, 

as evidenced by biodiversity loss, degradation of air 

and water quality, and loss of soil.

A decline in the quality of human life, as evidenced 

by increasing world poverty, disparities of wealth, and 

particularly conflicts over natural resources.

Need for Research and Action 

on Himalayan Biodiversity

Against this background, the Himalayan Resources 

Institute (HIRI) with its partners organized an 

“International Conference on Himalayan Biodiversity 

(ICHB-2003)” from 26 February 2003 to 28 February 

2003 in Kathmandu, Nepal, on the occasion of the 

International Year of Mountains (IYM, 2002). The 

conference was attended by more than 200 research 

scientists, technical specialists, and resource managers involved in various issues related to Himalayan 

Biodiversity, representing more than 50 national and 

international organizations. Over 150 technical papers 

covering various fields of Himalayan biodiversity were 

presented by more than 50 national and international 

organizations and institutions from abroad.

The participants at the conference recognized that:

The Himalayan range is a unique chain of mountains 

with fragile ecosystems and high endemic, rare, and 

endangered species of wild flora and fauna that fulfill basic daily needs for millions of people living in 

mountains and plains.

These mountain ecosystems are largely neglected and 

are greatly threatened by human pressure.

Exploration of flora and fauna and their habitats and 

mechanisms for maintenance of biological diversity 

are inadequate at present.

Degradation and loss of biological diversity are at 

high levels.

Appropriate approaches needed to address these issues 

are lacking, but recent developments (for example, 

large-scale conservation) appear positive.

Traditional practices (forestry, agriculture) and indigenous technology are disappearing.

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There is a lack of coordination and communication 

among scientists and a lack of partnership among 

scientists, planners, and managers.

A comprehensive Red Data Book is lacking.

There is a need for habitat mapping using geographic 

information systems and global positioning system 

techniques.

There is a lack of appropriate teaching curricula and 

infrastructure and research capabilities in the area of 

biotechnology to assign and use biodiversity for the 

betterment of society.

As a result, the Conference passed a series of resolutions in the ICHB-2003 Declaration.

Kathmandu Declaration of the 

International Conference on 

Himalayan Biodiversity

Realizing the lack of effective implementation of 

earlier conventions and treaties (such as CBD, Kyoto, 

Johannesburg), this conference strongly demands that 

nation states in the region incorporate/translate the 

provisions of treaties and conventions into national 

legislation.

This conference strongly recommends the creation 

of a Himalayan Biodiversity Database for the 

long-term research and monitoring of natural resources for sustainable development, including human 

dimensions.

Realizing the rapid depletion of biological resources 

and the indigenous knowledge system (IKS), this 

conference strongly recommends the meaningful participatory biodiversity conservation approach based 

on indigenous knowledge.

Realizing that mountain ecosystems are fragile and 

unique repositories of immense biological and cultural diversity, this conference recommends that the 

international community pay special attention to the 

conservation and sustainable development of these 

mountain ecosystems and cultural landscapes.

Recognizing the lack of coordination and communication among the scientific community and institutions 

involved in Himalayan biodiversity conservation, this 

conference strongly recommends the establishment 

of institutionalized networking among policymakers, 

scientists/researchers, and institutions.

This conference strongly recommends that the World 

Trade Organization respect the CBD, particularly by 

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582 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

protecting the rights of the communities and farmers 

who are the true custodians of biological diversity.

This conference opposes the extension of an intellectual property rights (IPR) regime specifically 

patenting life forms and genetic processes, which are 

the creation of millions of years of natural evolutionary processes.

Need of “International Center 

for Himalayan Biodiversity” 

for Research and Development

In considering the mandate of the Kathmandu 

Declaration of ICHB-2003, the ways in which 

Governments and local, national, regional / global level 

organizations could help achieve a better understanding 

of biological diversity and its related issues and greater 

cooperation in ensuring the sustainable development and 

poverty alleviation of Himalayan regions, “International 

Center for Himalayan Biodiversity (ICHB)” has been set 

up in close coordination, collaboration and cooperation 

with institutions and individuals working in education, 

research, and development in the field of conservation 

and sustainable use of biological diversity supporting 

Himalayan people in their search for sustainable development. The center is running as an autonomous and self 

governed institution and is supported by the Himalayan 

Resources Institute (HIRI). The CENTER brings out to 

the public about various national/international events, information, and links. Specifically the social, economical 

including scientific aspects of the sector and management, appropriate alternative technologies, indigenous 

knowledge and community management will be the 

further coverage of the program. The CENTER is committed to the dissemination of information about current 

conservation issues to the researchers and development 

professionals. To this end, the Network maintains active affiliations with a variety of local organizations 

and provides educational opportunities through community speakers, speaker series, Conservation Forum, 

Himalayan Biodiversity Day.

The vision of the CENTER is to improve human 

welfare through the sustainable use of Himalayan biodiversity. The CENTER provides education, research, 

training and development opportunities, and a unique 

intellectual environment for the development of solutions to ecological questions and problems facing 

Himalayan Biodiversity. The Center is committed to 

attracting students from Himalayan countries that will 

play leadership roles in future conservation efforts, 

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as well as graduate students from Nepal and abroad 

seeking expertise in Himalayan Biodiversity, systematics, and conservation biology. Students associated 

with the center study both the Himalayan and Tropical 

ecosystems with particular strengths in Himalayan 

plant-herbivore dynamics, population biology and conservation of birds in the Himalayas, ecology of forest 

fragments, systematics of flowering plants, evolution of 

genes and genomes, population genetics of Himalayan 

and tropical flora and fauna. The Network associates 

have active research programmes in the economics 

and politics of biodiversity conservation and sustainable development. The Network in future will not only 

maintain state of the art equipment, laboratories and 

Himalayan and Tropical green houses to conduct biochemical, molecular, eco-physiological and ecological 

research but also develops research and international 

training programs and activities through out the Hindu 

Kush-Himalayan (HKH) and other mountain countries 

in the world.

In this way, the center will maximize the impact on this 

sector by bringing together all stakeholders in a common 

forum to exchange expertise.

Goal

Bringing in all the diverse stakeholders of various 

field of Himalayan biodiversity in a common forum to 

strengthen the partnership in collaboration with government, international and national non-governmental 

organizations, consultants, academic institutions, 

agriculture, forestry and environmental management 

professionals and others with the objective of exchanging 

information and technical expertise.

Objectives of the ICHB

The objectives and activities of the CENTER include:

To establish local, regional and global networking 

on Himalayan biodiversity conservation to exchange 

experiences, information and technologies at local, 

national, regional/global levels to provide a local, 

regional/global forum for Himalayan biodiversity 

professionals to share knowledge, experiences, and 

ideas on recent biodiversity conservation and management approach.

To support for CBD including sub-regional and interregional agreements on protection, sustainable and 

equitable development of Himalayan regions.

To explore regional/global cooperation for effective 

implementation of biodiversity action plans and biodiversity strategies to support the government policies 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 583

and programs of the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) 

and other mountain countries in the world.

To plan future strategies in Himalayan biodiversity 

conservation, management and development through 

biodiversity education, research, training.

To organize meetings, workshops, seminars, conferences and congresses on Himalayan Biodiversity to 

exchange information and technologies in Himalayan 

biodiversity among development professionals, 

academic communities and concerned authorities in 

Nepal and the world.

Activities of the Center

Major activities of the CENTER include:

The Center will actively establish an information 

management system with the support of the various 

national and international organizations to meet the 

needs of non-government, rural, and indigenous organizations and individuals working on biodiversity 

conservation in both the developed and developing 

countries.

Store and plot information about geographical areas 

and record or attach area attributes such as species’ 

distribution, habitats, management plans, surveys, 

and reports.

Store web site addresses and information characterizing the sites and their developers, and record mailing 

lists, use net discussion groups, and site management 

information.

Catalogue and annotate treaties, conventions, protocols, legislation, customary laws, regulations, and 

other legal instruments.

File contact information and profiles of client groups, 

NGOs, government agencies, businesses, and services.

Keep track of information on indigenous peoples, 

cultures, and ethnic groups.

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Track projects, together with complete project profiles 

- including key contacts, locations, funding, project 

descriptions, reports, and evaluations.

Catalogue scientific and traditional knowledge of 

plants and animals - species’ distribution, references to source materials, bibliographies, surveys, 

taxonomy, research, management, protective status, 

and experts.

Publication and dissemination of a Newsletter of 

Himalayan Biodiversity.

Publication of Yearly an “International Journal of 

Himalayan Heritage” a publication of the “International 

Center for Himalayan Biodiversity” for scientific community.

Collection of books, newsletters and e-publications 

from various institutions and individuals from HKH 

and abroad.

Organize regular international training course, 

workshops, seminars, conference, and congress on 

Himalayan Biodiversity on series wise events.

Organize periodic talk programs on Himalayan 

Biodiversity and its related topics.

Compilation of new ideas evolved and disseminating 

it to the partners through mail and e-mail.

Compilation, record keeping and documentation of 

the indigenous knowledge on successful strategies, 

lesson learn and case studies.

Preparing and publication of the directories and the 

relevant information of all the stakeholders and experts 

in the field of the Himalayan Biodiversity.

Preparing, maintaining, and dissemination of relevant 

publications, books and other documents.

Develop and maintain regional and international 

network for future cooperation, collaboration, and 

coordination on Himalayan Biodiversity.

Develop and maintain the biodiversity website.

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584 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Existing vegetation is the primary natural resource 

managed by the USDA Forest Service and most forest 

landowners and land management agencies. The agency 

is charged with managing vegetation for a variety of human uses while maintaining the integrity of ecosystem 

components and processes at national, regional, and local 

scales. One of the fundamental informational needs in 

land management planning is consistent and continuous existing vegetation data of sufficient accuracy and 

precision to address resource analysis objectives. These 

analyses rely on the data models produced from vegetation classification, mapping, and/or inventory processes. 

This paper discusses the integration and utilization of 

these data models in the Northern Region Vegetation 

Mapping Project (R1-VMP).

R1-VMP provides robust existing vegetation information for a wide variety of analysis applications. R1-VMP 

data models are based on three integrally related, yet 

separate processes: vegetation classification, vegetation 

mapping, and vegetation inventory. The integration of 

these processes and the resulting data models represents the basic vegetation information used in resource 

planning and management by the USDA Forest Service 

Northern Region.

Maps are the most convenient and universally understood means to graphically represent the spatial 

arrangement and relationships among features on the 

earth’s surface (Mosby 1980). A map is indispensable 

for recording, communicating, and facilitating analysis 

of such information relating to a specific area. Maps are 

commonly used for inventorying, monitoring, and managing numerous resources on National Forests.

 Historically, vegetation inventory and mapping was 

conducted through two-stage sampling of forest stands. 

This process consisted of the delineation of “timber 

stands” with stereo aerial photography. The basis for 

delineation of stands was discontinuities in texture (reflecting stocking and crown size differences) or apparent 

tree height (Stage and Alley 1972). The second stage was 

normally field sampling of all the delineated stands or a 

stratified random sample of the stands with subsequent 

inference to unsampled stands within the strata. This process also involved transferring the photo delineations to a 

base map. These stand delineations reflected management 

considerations as well as vegetative composition and 

structure and often included several vegetation types that 

were different in terms of composition and structure, but 

were similar in terms of management implications and/or 

history. The term stand was also extended to specifically 

describe conditions other than forested stands, such as 

non-forest vegetation, rock/barren areas, or water bodies. 

While extending the stand-mapping concept made these 

maps more comprehensive, they did not map fundamental units of vegetation that could be interpreted to address 

numerous questions. Another limitation of these data is 

that they apply almost exclusively to the suitable timber 

base, those areas outside the suitable base have few stand 

exam inventory data even though many of the questions 

Integrating Vegetation Classification, Mapping, and 

Strategic Inventory for Forest Management

C. K. Brewer, I.A.A.A. Program Leader, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Remote Sensing 

Application Center, Salt Lake City, UT

R. Bush, Inventory and Analysis Specialist, and D. Berglund, J. A. Barber, and 

S. R. Brown are GIS/Remote Sensing Specialists, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Northern 

Region, Missoula, MT

Abstract—Many of the analyses needed to address multiple resource issues are focused 

on vegetation pattern and process relationships and most rely on the data models produced from vegetation classification, mapping, and/or inventory. The Northern Region 

Vegetation Mapping Project (R1-VMP) data models are based on these three integrally 

related, yet separate processes. This paper describes the integration of vegetation classification, mapping, and inventory to produce the basic vegetation data for land and 

resource planning and management for the USDA Forest Service Northern Region. The 

conceptual relationships between classification, mapping, and inventory are discussed 

and the operational integration of the resulting data is described.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 585

and issues apply to all lands. Additionally, these maps 

represent a dynamic ecosystem component and have a 

finite period of currency.

In response to this informational need, the Regional 

Forester for the Northern Region initiated a R1-VMP 

to provide the Region and cooperating agencies with a 

geospatial database of land cover produced following 

consistent methods and mapped continuously across all 

ownerships. This database with associated inventory 

data provides the basis for vegetation pattern and process 

analyses to support land management planning. The 

project area for R1-VMP encompasses approximately 

27,000,000 acres (11,000,000 hectares) of the USDA 

Forest Service, Northern Region (fig. 1).

In the early stages of the project it became obvious 

that R1-VMP was not a mapping project but, in fact, a 

classification, mapping, and inventory project. Numerous 

problems had been identified with the existing Regional 

classification logic and associated algorithms including 

the fact that the classes were not exhaustive and/or mutually exclusive and concerns regarding the integration of 

the maps inventory data were also raised. The R1-VMP 

team coordinated the effort to modify the classification 

logic and integrate strategic inventory data collected 

through the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and 

Analysis (FIA). Accordingly, this paper describes the 

general relationship of vegetation classification, mapping, and inventory and describes these processes relative 

to R1-VMP. A more detailed discussion of these relationships is included in Brohman and Bryant (2004).

General Relationship of 

Classification, Mapping, and 

Inventory

Vegetation classification is the process of grouping 

of similar entities into named types or classes based 

on shared characteristics. Vegetation classification defines and describes vegetation types and/or structural 

characteristics (in other words, what is it?). Vegetation 

mapping is the process of delineating the geographic 

distribution, extent, and landscape patterns of vegetation types and/or structural characteristics. Vegetation 

mapping spatially depicts the distribution and pattern 

of vegetation types and/or structural characteristics (in 

other words, where is it?). Vegetation inventory is the 

process of applying an objective set of sampling methods 

to quantify the amount, composition, and condition of 

vegetation within specified limits of statistical precision. 

Vegetation inventory quantifies the amount, composition, and condition of vegetation (in other words, how 

much is there?). The conceptual relationships between 

classification, mapping, and inventory are schematically 

depicted in figure 2.

A one-to-one relationship between vegetation types 

(from a classification) and vegetation map units is uncommon given the limitations of mapping technology and the 

level of floristic detail in most classifications. Mapping, 

therefore, usually entails trade-offs among thematic 

and spatial resolution and accuracy, as well as cost. The 

goal is constrained optimization, not perfection. This 

problem is reduced somewhat when vegetation types, 

such as dominance types, and structural classifications 

are designed to be applied to mapping projects. Similarly, 

there is rarely a sufficient sample size to quantify all vegetation types so inventory compilation usually involves 

trade-offs to aggregate vegetation types and/or structural 

classes to achieve the desired sample size.

Because these ecosystems are dynamic, evolutionary, 

and have limited predictability many of the analyses 

needed for ecosystem management strategies require 

a variety of simulation models. The majority of these 

simulation models rely heavily on accurate and relatively 

detailed vegetation data. These models vary in the specific vegetation data needed and the detail needed in those 

data, but most of them require continuous spatial data 

with consistently classified attribute data. Classification, 

mapping, and inventory each contribute data to these 

simulation models.

Vegetation Classification

Following the general principles and the mid-level 

classification standards included in the Brohman and 

Bryant (2004), the Northern Region developed and 

adopted the following vegetation and landcover classifications.

Physiognomic and floristic classification

Physiognomic and floristic composition are the most 

fundamental components of a vegetation map. The 

Figure 1. Northern Region Vegetation Mapping Project area.
586 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

National Vegetation Classification (NVC) (FGDC 1997) 

has defined a hierarchical system for arranging these 

components into taxonomic units, which is the foundation for this mapping hierarchy.

Mapping continuous areas requires using land use and 

cover as well as vegetation classification systems. While 

many areas of the National Forests could be mapped 

using map units defined by vegetation physiognomic 

classification only, sparsely vegetated and non-vegetated 

areas mapped solely as such, give little information to the 

map user. Water was explicitly included as a lifeformlevel land cover class and classes such as snow, clouds, 

and shadows were replaced using adjacent lifeforms. The 

lifeforms mapped in R1-VMP included:

Grass/forb dominated lifeform

Shrub dominated lifeform

Tree dominated lifeform

Water landcover

Sparsely vegetated landcover

Floristic map units were based on a consistent classification of dominance types. Dominance types have 

been widely used in the development of map units where 

remotely sensed imagery is the primary basis for map 

feature delineation. “Dominance types provide a simple 

method of classification based on the floristic dominant 

(or group of closely related dominants) as assessed by 

some measure of importance such as biomass, density, height, or leaf-area cover (Kimmins 1997). They 

represent one of the lowest levels in several published 

classification hierarchies (for example, Cowardin and 

others 1979; Brown and others 1980).” The dominance 

type classification adopted for R1-VMP is based on 

relative canopy cover and is exhaustive and mutually 

exclusive. The basic classification logic is illustrated in 

the following tree dominance type key:

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A. Single most abundant species > 60% of total canopy 

cover

List single species

A. Single most abundant species < 60% of total canopy 

cover

Go to B

B. 2 most abundant species > 80% of total canopy cover 

and each species individually is >20% of total canopy 

cover

List 2 species, in order of abundance

B. 2 most abundant species < 80% of total canopy 

cover

Go to C

C. 3 most abundant species > 80% of total canopy cover 

and each species individually is >20% of total canopy 

cover

List 3 species, in order of abundance

C. 3 most abundant species < 80% of total canopy 

cover

Go to D

D. Shade intolerant species total CC > shade tolerant 

species total CC

IMXS

D. Shade intolerant species total CC < shade tolerant 

species total CC

Go to E

E. GF+C+WH canopy cover > AF+S+MH canopy 

cover

TGCH

E. GF+C+WH canopy cover < AF+S+MH canopy 

cover

TASH

Tree diameter classification

Tree diameter class is defined here as any of the 

intervals into which a range of tree diameters may be 

Figure 2. Relationships of vegetation 

classification, mapping, and 

inventory.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 587

divided for classification (Helms 1998). In R1-VMP the 

mean diameter at breast height (4.5 ft. 1.37 m. above 

the ground) is calculated for the trees forming the upper 

or uppermost canopy layer (Helms 1998). This mean is 

calculated as the canopy-cover-weighted mean diameter 

(in inches). The tree diameter classes mapped in R1-VMP 

included:

Seedling/Sapling (0 to 4.9)

Small tree (5 to 9.9)

Medium tree (10 to 14.9)

Large tree (15 to 19.9)

Very Large tree (20 +)

Tree canopy cover classification

Tree canopy cover is defined here as the total nonoverlapping tree canopy in a delineated area as seen 

from above. (Note: Tree canopy cover is not defined by 

a hemispherical projection as seen from below.) Tree 

canopy cover below ten percent is considered a non-tree 

polygon. The tree canopy cover breaks are consistent with 

the physiognomic class breaks for vegetation. The tree 

canopy cover classes mapped in R1-VMP included:

Low (10 to 24.9 percent)

Moderate (25 to 59.9 percent)

High (60 to 100 percent)

Map Design

Map design involves two fundamental processes: map 

unit design and map feature design. Map unit design 

identifies the vegetation characteristics to be mapped and 

assembles or develops classification keys for each of the 

map attributes used to describe those characteristics. This 

process establishes the relationship between vegetation 

classification and mapping. Map feature design, concurrently, identifies the spatial characteristics and structure 

of the map.

A vegetation map unit is a collection of areas defined 

and named the same in terms of their component classes 

from the classifications described above (adapted from 

USDA, Soil Survey Division Staff 1993). The map unit 

design process establishes the criteria used to aggregate or 

differentiate vegetation classes to establish corresponding 

map units. Therefore, a mapping unit is comprised of one 

or more classes from one or more specific classifications. 

The criteria used to aggregate or differentiate within 

physiognomic types, dominance types, or structural 

classes to form mapping units will depend on the purpose 

of, and the resources devoted to, any particular mapping 

project (Jennings and others 2002). For example, map 

units designed to provide information on existing forest 

structure to characterize wildlife habitat or fuel condition 

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would be based on a combination of tree canopy cover 

classes and tree diameter classes. The map unit design 

process is more complex for floristic classifications than 

for relatively simple structural classifications.

Map units depicted on maps within individual areas 

or delineations that are non-overlapping and geographically unique are referred to as map features (in other 

words, polygon delineations or region delineations). 

Typically, one map unit is repeated across the landscape 

in many individual map feature delineations. The map 

design process for the primary R1-VMP map products 

is described in the following sections.

Physiognomic and floristic map design

The lifeform and landcover classes described above 

were adopted and mapped as classified. A variable minimum map feature (MMF) standard was implemented as 

follows:

Grass/forb dominated lifeform (2.5 Acre MMF)

Shrub dominated lifeform (2.5 Acre MMF)

Tree dominated lifeform (5 Acre MMF)

Water landcover (1 Acre MMF)

Sparsely vegetated landcover (5 Acre MMF)

The dominance type map units, tree canopy cover 

map units, and tree diameter map units, described above 

nest hierarchically under lifeform and follow the same 

minimum map feature standard.

The dominance type classification described above 

was aggregated and generalized using the following logic 

to identify the map units used in R1-VMP.

Dominance Type 1 – Elemental Classification 

(Dom1)

Classification Rule set:

1species >60% tot CC

that species

2species >80% tot CC

those 2-species - listed in order of abundance

3species >80% tot CC

those 3-species - listed in order of abundance

Shade intol > Shade tol

IMXS [intolerant mixed spp.]

Shade tol > shade intol

G, WRC,WH > AF,ES,MH

TGCH

G, WRC,WH < AF,ES,MH

TASH

Results in Over 850 Different Types

Dominance Type 4 –Species Groups (Dom4)

Classification Rule set: 

1-species: same as DOM1

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588 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

2-species: All 2-species DOM1-types with the same 

most abundant species are grouped into SPPP1MIX [for example ABGR-PSME, ABGR-PICO, 

etc = ABGR-1MIX]

3-species: All 3-species types with the same most 

abundant species [from DOM1] are grouped into 

SPPP-2MIX [for example ABGR-PSME-PICO, 

ABGR-PICO-LAOC, etc = ABGR-2MIX]

IMXS, TASH, TGCH: same as DOM1

Results in 42 Different Types

Dominance Type 4m –Species Groups Map Units 

[Dom4m]

Map Unit Design

A frequency distribution of DOM4 types is made from 

FIA PSU data. 

If either the single-species or the single-species-1MIX 

are less than 1% of the total number of forested 

FIA PSUs, they are collapsed into a single-species 

mega-mix [SPPP-MMIX].

All 3-species DOM1 types [or DOM4, SPPP-2MIX] 

are collapsed into IMXS, TASH, or TGCH.

Results in 15 To 18 Different Types

Tree diameter class and tree canopy cover 

class map designs

The tree diameter classes and the tree canopy cover 

classes described above were mapped as classified.

Vegetation Mapping

Vegetation mapping is the process of delineating the 

geographic distribution, extent, and landscape patterns 

of vegetation types and/or structural characteristics. 

Satellite-based remote sensing classifications with their 

associated GIS coverages or grids and attribute databases 

have increasingly been used for large area, low-cost vegetation and landcover mapping (Lachowski and others 

1996; Redmond and others 1996; Johnston and others 

1997; Cohen and others 1998; Mickelson and others 

1998; Stoms and others 1998). These satellite-based classifications are gradually replacing aerial photography as 

the primary image data for vegetation mapping. Wynne 

and Carter (1997) compare characteristics of satellite 

remote sensing data and aerial photography relative to 

these mapping applications:

Satellite images are digital; they provide direct and 

cost effective GIS coverages and databases. The 

spatially accurate conversion of aerial photo delineations to digital coverage is expensive and time 

consuming.

Digital images are easy to send over computer 

networks; they can be delivered within hours of acquisition.

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Given a specified resolution, satellite images typically 

provide greater coverage than aerial photography.

Satellite images often have better geometric fidelity 

than aerial photos because of their altitude and stability of orbits.

Some spaceborne sensors include wavelengths band, 

such as mid-infrared, and thermal infrared, that cannot 

be detected by film.

Repeat coverage is easily obtained; it is easily coregistered and used for applications such as change 

detection and monitoring.

The USDA Forest Service national direction contained 

in Brewer and others (2004) reflects the trend toward 

the use of satellite remote sensing classification for 

vegetation mapping. The following sections, exerted and 

condensed from Brewer and others (2003), describe the 

analytical logic and general methodology utilized in the 

R1-VMP mapping process.

Acquisition and pre-processing of image and 

ancillary data

Landsat TM imagery was chosen for this work because the near-infrared and mid-infrared reflectance of 

vegetation is strongly related to important vegetation 

canopy characteristics. Additionally, the high spectral 

resolution of Landsat TM imagery was preferred above 

the high spatial resolution of other sensors, such as SPOT. 

Additionally, Landsat TM data are acquired continuously 

and archived data could be purchased to meet the time 

and area needs. Landsat TM data can also be purchased 

as “floating scene” or “path-level” data purchasing the 

equivalent of up to three TM scenes as a single field of 

view, thereby reducing the image handling and preprocessing requirements as well as costs.

A good seasonal image data acquisition window for 

forest vegetation opens slightly after the date at which 

the forest vegetation is fully mature and closes just prior 

to its senescence. In this case, the “peak green” and 

“fall” image data were obtained from the EROS Data 

Center. All images were ortho-rectified to previously 

terrain-corrected images for the respective paths using 

the Geometric Correction Module and the Landsat orbit 

model in ERDAS IMAGINE as well as 7.5-minute digital 

elevation models.

Ecogeographic stratification

Lilles and and Kiefer (2000) discuss the commonality 

of using ancillary data to perform geographic stratification of an image dataset prior to classification. They 

further describe the aim of this process is to “...subdivide 

an image into a series of relatively homogeneous geographic areas (strata) that are then classified separately.” 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 589

The homogeneity of these geographic areas is largely 

determined by the composition of biophysical environments included in the stratification. These biophysical 

environment settings are important for stratification in 

this type of project because they facilitate the delineation and description of ecosystems that behave in a 

similar manner and influence the natural disturbance 

processes that create finer-scale vegetation patterns 

(Jensen and others 1997). The USDA Forest Service 

National Hierarchical Framework of Ecological Units 

(Bailey and others 1994) provided the delineations used 

for geographic stratification of the R1-VMP project area. 

The appropriate level of this hierarchy for ecogeographic 

stratification in this project is the section-level delineation 

described by McNab and Avers (1994) and illustrated in 

figure 3. These delineations were used to stratify Landsat 

ETM floating scene sets resulting in ten subpath data models (fig. 4) rather than eight 

Landsat TM scene models. This stratification 

improves model performance by limiting the 

variance associated with vegetation types and 

increases the utility of reference data.

Image segmentation

As stated in Ryerd and Woodcock (1996), 

“Image segmentation is the process of dividing 

digital images into spatially cohesive units, 

or regions. These regions represent discrete 

objects or areas in the image.” This segmentation and merging process is influenced by 

the variance structure of the image data and provides 

the modeling units that reflect life form composition, 

stocking, tree crown size differences, and other vegetation and/or landcover characteristics (Haralick and 

Shapiro 1985; Ryerd and Woodcock 1996). Segmentation 

and merging of Landsat ETM satellite imagery in R1-

VMP utilized the segmentation functionality within 

the software eCognition (Baatz and others 2001). The 

segmentation process in eCognition is based on both 

the local variance structure within the imagery and 

shape indices. This segmentation process produced image objects that served as the base classification units 

within the object-oriented classification programs. The 

image objects delineated through the R1-VMP image 

segmentation process and modeled in eCognition readily aggregate thematically and comprise vegetation and 

landcover patches that represent the various map units 

in the hierarchy.

Change detection

Change detection methodologies using digital data 

have been used extensively for a wide variety of analysis applications including: fire impact studies (Parra 

and others 1996), land cover change in wetland areas 

(Hashem and others 1996; Mahlke 1996), air pollution 

damage detection (Hogda and others 1995; Solheim and 

others 1995), and forest-canopy change (Coppin and 

Bauer 1994; 1995). Within the context of the vegetation mapping objectives R1-VMP, the change detection 

method is designed to exploit phenological differences 

in vegetation types (in other words, deciduous tree or 

shrub species dominance types or senescent grasses 

and forb species dominance types). Coppin and others 

(2001) demonstrated that a solid biophysical link is found 

between forest canopy features and the Kauth-Thomas 

transform, a particular case of a principal components 

analysis. The three main components of Kauth-Thomas 

variability are termed brightness, greenness and wetness 

and are the result of a Gram-Schmidt orthogonalization 

Figure 3. Section- and Subsection-level delineations in the 

ECOMAP hierarchy.

Figure 4. Sub-path data models used for ecogeographic 

stratification of Landsat ETM floating scenes.
590 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

process (Kauth and Thomas 1976). Changes in these 

three components constituted the basis of the R1-VMP 

analytical logic to exploit phenological differences in 

vegetation types.

Ecological modeling and other ancillary data

Ecological modeling and other ancillary data were 

used extensively by R1-VMP to improve classification 

results. These ecological modeling approaches were 

incorporated into the multi-source system through knowledge-based classification and reference data stratification 

within the object-oriented image analysis software, eCognition (Baatz and others 2001). This process facilitated 

the use of additional data such as potential vegetation 

settings (Pfister and others 1977; Mueggler and Stewart 

1980; Cooper and others 1991), subsection level ecological units (McNab and Avers 1994), topography, and 

image illumination strata for grouping or splitting classes 

to improve classification accuracy (Cibula and Nyquist 

1987; Bolstad and Lillesand 1992; Cohen and Spies 

1992; Brown and others 1993; Coppin and Bauer 1994; 

Goodchild 1994). In addition to PNV and subsection level ecological units, R1-VMP incorporated two indices of 

insolation derived from combinations of slope and aspect 

generated from 30m DEM data. R1-VMP also stratified 

the image data by the illumination at the time of image 

acquisition. Additional ancillary data were provided by 

fire severity data classifying recently burned areas, operationally produced by the USDA Forest Service (Gmelin 

and Brewer 2002) following major fire events in 2000 

and 2001 and were used to characterize first order fire 

effects on vegetation. These data were generated from 

a Normalized Difference Burn Ratio (NBR) analytical 

approach, following Key and Benson (1999) as adapted 

by Brewer and others (In press).

Reference data

The most common sources of reference data for 

remote sensing projects are aerial photo interpretation 

and field data collection. It is quite common for remote 

sensing projects to use photo interpretation as a primary source of reference data or to combine these two 

sources. In R1-VMP, training and accuracy assessment 

data were generated through a structured aerial photo 

interpretation process that integrated a variety of field 

sampled inventory datasets. Our experience suggests that 

an aerial perspective is often useful for remote sensing 

training data acquisition and that skilled interpreters can 

add local knowledge and experience to the classification process. Additionally, resource aerial photography 

remains the most commonly available remotely sensed 

data source. Common image interpretation techniques 

were used to characterize elements of vegetation pattern 

that comprise lifeform, dominance type, tree size class, 

and tree canopy cover (Avery 1977; Campbell 1987; 

Lillesand and Kiefer 1987; Lachowski and others 1996). 

The variables collected include lifeform/landuse class 

cover percent and connectivity, dominance type cover 

percent and connectivity, tree size class cover percent, 

tree canopy cover percent, and connectivity, and total 

vegetation canopy cover percent. Field-sampled tree, 

vegetation composition, and ground-cover composition 

data were collected on a subset of a randomly-selected 

set of region-polygons as a means to validate the photo 

interpretation reference data collection.

Hierarchical classification

A nested hierarchical classification scheme (described 

above under vegetation classification) was applied in 

R1-VMP that used membership functions derived from 

knowledge bases for the physiognomic and structural 

classifications and fuzzy-set classifiers based on reference data and nearest neighbor algorithms for the 

dominance type classification. This design provided 

a consistent linkage between the dominance type and 

structural classifications commonly used by the agency at 

the mid-level and the physiognomic classifications used 

at the broad-level and national-level and required by the 

FGDC vegetation classification standards (Brohman and 

Bryant 2004).

Implementation of this classification hierarchy produces separate GIS coverages, grids, and associated 

geospatial databases for four primary attributes. These 

attributes include lifeform, dominance type, tree canopy 

cover, and tree size class. The hypothetical dominance 

type, tree size class, and tree canopy cover map products 

included in figure 5 illustrate the relationships of these 

attributes to the original image objects. These original 

image objects were merged following the minimum map 

feature standards. The merged image objects were then 

used to produce the GIS coverages and grids for the four 

primary map products. Any combination of these four 

primary map products could be produced to meet specific 

analysis objectives, with the logic of the combination 

defined by the end user.

Vegetation Inventory

The vegetation inventory data for most land management agencies and private companies only partially 

covers their ownership, are often out of date, and are 

rarely compatible with adjacent landowners. This is 

particularly true for federal land management agencies 

such as the USDA Forest Service, Northern Region, 

that manage large geographic areas for a variety of 

management objectives. Historically, most ground-based 

inventory data have been collected using standard plot 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 591

and quick plot stand exams (USDA Forest Service, FSH 

2709). Using the USDA Forest Service, Northern Region, 

as an example, Brewer and others (2002) observed that 

most of these data apply almost exclusively to the suitable timber base, as defined by the National Forest 

Management Act of 1976 (US Public Law 94-588 

1976). The remaining areas outside the suitable base 

have few stand exam data even though many of the 

resource questions and issues apply to all lands. The 

collection of stand-based data on part of the land 

base introduces an unknown bias when these data 

are used to represent the whole land base. In addition, there are no specific design considerations for 

the collection and storage of these data to facilitate 

their use by other land management agencies or 

private landowners.

Declining budgets for public land management agencies have resulted in dramatic reductions in 

the amount and geographic extent of current, detailed 

inventory data. The precipitous decline in standard plot 

and quick plot stand exams reflects budget trends for 

inventory programs throughout the USDA Forest Service. 

Brewer and others (2002) describe the effects of these 

reductions on current data and graphically depict the 

status of stand exam based inventory data for the USDA 

Forest Service, Northern Region (fig. 6). This graph illustrates the decline in acreage of stand exams, by year, 

from 1980 to 2001.

Reductions in timber sale programs on public lands, 

particularly National Forests, have had effects on the 

management (in other words, harvest schedules) of both 

industrial and non-industrial private forests (Flowers 

and others 1993). This change in harvest schedules has 

affected the currency and completeness of inventory 

data from private forests; proprietary data private forest 

landowners are reluctant to share.

Given the discontinuous and incomplete nature of 

most forest inventory data, as well as the difficulty in 

maintaining currency and sharing with other landowners, data generated by the Forest Inventory and Analysis 

(FIA) program of the USDA Forest Service provides a 

viable alternative. FIA utilizes a systematic random grid 

of plot clusters, re-measured periodically, to monitor the 

extent, condition, uses, impacts of management, and 

health of forest ecosystems across all ownerships in the 

United States. These data provide an unbiased sample 

for many inventory related questions. The Society of 

American Foresters (2000) state that “FIA is the only 

program that monitors the extent, condition, uses, impacts of management, and health of forest ecosystems 

across the United States.” They further state... “FIA data 

serve as the foundation of large-scale policy studies and 

perform a pivotal role in public and private forest planning.” They cite examples of regional and sub-regional 

analyses that influence major economic and ecological 

management decisions including:

Figure 5. Hypothetical classification attributes (map units) and 

image objects. a) base imagery, b) dominance type, c) tree 

size class, d) tree canopy cover.

Figure 6. USDA Forest Service, Northern Region, stand exam 

program status summary for 1980 to 2001. USDA Forest 

Service, Northern Region, stand exam program status 

summary for 1980 to 2001.
592 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Strategic planning efforts by wood-using industries 

routinely incorporate FIA data into timber supply and 

timber product outputs.

Development of criteria and indicators of forest 

sustainability depend on the growth removals, and 

inventory data compiled by FIA (Reams and others 

1999).

National forest carbon budgets for reporting under 

international agreements are dependent on FIA data 

(Heath and Birdsey 1997).

Assessment of ecological change and economic damage resulting from disasters such as hurricanes or 

widespread wildfires.

Van Deusen and others (1999) suggest a current and 

accurate forest ecosystem inventory is prerequisite 

to substantive discussion of issues like sustainability, 

national forest policy, carbon sequestration, changes in 

growth and productivity, changes in landuse and demographics, ecosystem health, and economic opportunities 

in the forest sector.

Over the past decade concerns have been raised regarding the currency of FIA data, historically re-measured 

every 6 to 18 years (Gillespie 1999). These concerns 

prompted the American Forest and Paper Association 

(AF&PA) to convene two Blue Ribbon Panels on FIA 

(AF&PA 1992, 1998). The high level of user community 

support and concerns regarding currency of FIA data 

surfaced by these panels and subsequent Congressional 

hearings resulted in legislation to implement an annualized forest inventory and monitoring program to reduce 

the re-measurement interval (Czaplewski 1999). It is expected that the annualized inventory design will result in 

substantial improvements in the currency of FIA data.

Historically, the FIA program produced area estimates 

of forest types in two phases following a double sampling design (Reams and VanDeusen 1999). Phase one 

placed a systematic random grid on aerial photography 

(normally 1:40,000 scale National Aerial Photography 

Program NAPP). These points (with a minimum area of 

at least 1 acre or a strip at least 250 feet wide) were then 

classified as forest or non-forest based on the FIA definition of at least 10% tree canopy cover. The second phase 

sub-sampled the first phase points in the field to confirm 

the classification. This process provided the forest area 

estimation for the application of the field sampling of the 

permanent plot clusters in the third phase. Reams and 

VanDeusen (1999) suggest the following three problems 

associated with this historical method:

No forest non-forest map is produced

The photo interpretation process is time-consuming 

and labor intensive

Current aerial photography is not always available

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These issues become increasingly problematic with 

the shift to an annualized inventory program. R1-VMP 

utilizes FIA data for two important processes. In the map 

unit design process FIA data are classified and utilized to 

estimate abundance of dominance types. These estimates 

are used to define the dominance types with sufficient 

aerial extent to include as a map unit and to identify 

logical aggregation strategies for dominance types with 

insufficient extents. The FIA data are also used for the 

development of sample-based map unit descriptions. In 

this process the FIA data are spatially associated to the 

R1-VMP map products and are then compiled to quantify 

various vegetation characteristics for each of the thematic 

classes in the map product (for example, dominance 

types, tree diameter classes, and/or tree size classes). The 

compilation of the FIA data by R1-VMP map classes represents the final step in the integration of classification, 

mapping and inventory to support forest management in 

the USDA Forest Service Northern Region.

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Introduction

Wind is one of the primary environmental variables 

influencing wildland fire spread and intensity (Rothermel 

1972, Catchpole and others 1998). Nevertheless, methods 

to model local wind speed and direction are not readily 

available. In many cases, wind information available to 

fire incident personnel is limited to that available from 

weather forecasts and/or weather observations from a 

few specific locations, none of which may be actually 

near the fire. Mountainsides, valleys, ridges, and the fire 

itself, influence both the speed and direction of wind 

flows. A major source of uncertainty in fire behavior 

predictions is the lack of detailed wind speed and direction information for use in the fire behavior calculations. 

Wind and its spatial variability in mountainous terrain 

was a major factor in the fire behavior associated with 

recent fire incidents that resulted in firefighter entrapments and/or fatalities: South Canyon Fire 1994 (Butler 

and others 1998), Thirtymile fire (USDA Forest Service 

2001), and Price Canyon Fire (Thomas and Vergari 

2002). Fire behavior forecasts, fire growth projections 

and firefighter safety could greatly benefit from detailed 

local wind information.

Some efforts are underway to approach the problem 

from the atmospheric modeling standpoint. Ferguson 

(2001) is using atmospheric scale models to assess the 

dispersion of smoke from natural and prescribed fires. 

Zeller and others (2003) are exploring the application 

of meso-scale atmospheric flow models for the prediction of surface winds. And this year (2004) the National 

Weather Service provided public access to the National 

Digital Forecast Database (NDFD). The NDFD currently 

provides 2.5 km resolution, 8-day digital forecasts (and 

GIS support) for the conterminous US (NWS 2004). 

These approaches include many of the important physical 

processes but suffer from relatively coarse scale surface 

wind predictions (nominally 103 m scale) and large computational requirements and/or times. And, importantly, 

the meso-scale model approach is not easily configured 

High Resolution Wind Direction and Speed Information 

for Support of Fire Operations

B. Butler, Research Engineer, J. Forthofer, Mechanical Engineer, M. Finney, Research 

Forester, and L. Bradshaw, Meteorologist, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, Missoula, MT

R. Stratton, Forester, Systems for Environmental Management, Missoula, MT

B.W. Butler, J.M. Forthofer, M.A. Finney, L.S. Bradshaw, R. Stratton

Abstract—Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) technology has been used to model 

wind speed and direction in mountainous terrain at a relatively high resolution compared to other readily available technologies. The process termed “gridded wind” is 

not a forecast, but rather represents a method for calculating the influence of terrain on 

general wind flows. Gridded wind simulations are typically produced at resolutions of 

100 m using laptop computers. Resolution is limited only by elevation data resolution 

and computer memory. Initial comparisons between simulated winds and measured 

average wind speeds and directions for specific locations indicate excellent agreement. 

Results suggest that as the upper air wind speed increases the relative magnitude of 

uncertainty in the simulated winds decreases. The modeled winds generally seem to 

be most accurate for simulation scenarios associated with large scale strong pressure 

differences such as cold front passage, Foehn (Santa Ana), and onshore/offshore winds. 

This high resolution wind information has proven useful for identifying areas and/or 

conditions around a fire perimeter that may produce high fire intensity and spread 

rates and for identifying specific locations where fire spotting might occur. Currently 

the output from the process can be summarized in the form of a shaded relief map with 

wind vectors overlaid on the terrain image, GIS shape files, and custom wind direction 

and speed files that can be utilized by the FARSITE fire growth simulation program. 

The accuracy of FARSITE fire spread predictions is improved in the few cases where 

gridded winds have been used.
596 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

for “what if” applications wherein a single user can 

simulate various scenarios ahead of time to explore the 

relative effects of model inputs on surface wind flow and 

their impact on fire intensity and growth.

Lopes and others (2002) and Lopes (2003) describe 

a software system that calculates a surface wind field 

and includes topographical influences. The wind field 

simulator has been used to generate wind inputs to a fire 

growth simulator. Lopes and others (2002) implement 

two methods for producing wind fields: a diagnostic 

model called NUATMOS (Ross and others 1988) and 

a Navier-Stokes solver called CANYON (Lopes 2003). 

Typically, models like NUATMOS cannot accurately predict flow effects such as the recirculation on the lee side of 

ridges in mountainous terrain. More detailed submodels 

including conservation of momentum and turbulence are 

needed to account for the interactions between wind and 

surface structures such as ridges and canyons.

With the advent of digital computing a tool has become 

available for the study of fluid dynamics. This technology 

termed computational fluid dynamics or CFD is widely 

used within the engineering disciplines (Launder and 

Spaulding 1974; Volker and others 2000; Barman 2001; 

Patankar 1980) to resolve flows in enclosures such as 

ducts, furnaces, or wind tunnels. However, it is only 

within the last few years that CFD has become available at a cost and in a form that allows a broad range of 

practitioners to approach complex fluid flow problems, 

for example modeling of the dispersion of toxic gases 

from hazardous waste spills, the selection of optimal sites 

for wind turbines, and wind loads on high rise buildings. 

As a result some previous studies have focused on the 

application of CFD technology for simulating wind flow 

over complex terrain (Raithby, Stubley and Taylor 1987, 

Alm and Nygaard 1995, Montavon 1998, Kim and others 

2000). A few studies explored the interaction between 

wind and mountainous terrain within the context of 

wildland fire, but none have linked the wind simulations 

to wildland fire management efforts.

This study was initiated with three objectives: 1) explore the utility of CFD software for simulating surface 

wind flows in mountainous terrain, 2) identify how detailed surface wind information can assist wildland fire 

operations, and 3) develop a methodology by which the 

technology may be accessed by wildland fire incident 

management teams. This document outlines current work 

on objective #1 and efforts to quantify the accuracy of the 

high resolution wind-based fire growth simulations.

Discussion

The process of producing gridded wind information 

occurs in three steps and is detailed elsewhere (Forthofer 

and others 2003). Basically it consists of importing elevation data in the form of digital elevation model (DEM) 

files into the CFD software and solving the Navier-Stokes 

equations to determine the flow speed and direction 

everywhere within the domain. The results from this set 

of calculations are then used to determined surface wind 

speed and direction at a resolution of nominally 100 m 

everywhere on the terrain of interest.

Wind modeling for a specific fire typically consists of 

simulating several different combinations of wind speed 

and direction. The simulations are selected to match a 

forecasted scenario or are based on historical weather 

patterns. The simulation accounts for the influence of 

elevation, terrain, and vegetation on the general wind 

flow. Output files are geo-referenced so that they can be 

incorporated into standard GIS information systems.

Transfer of results from the wind simulations to fire 

managers and field personnel can occur in three different forms: 1) Images consisting of wind vectors overlaid 

on a shaded relief surface image. The fire perimeter and 

marked prominent landmarks can be added to orient the 

viewer (fig. 1). These images display the spatial variation of the wind speed and direction and can be used to 

identify high and/or low wind speed areas along the fire 

perimeter caused by the channeling and sheltering effects 

of the topography. 2) ARCView or ARCMap shape files 

of wind vectors. These vectors can be incorporated into a 

GIS database and custom maps/images developed. Some 

useful combinations are wind vectors over fuels maps, 

IR based fire perimeters, and 7.5 minute quad maps with 

contour lines, roads, and trails. The process can also produce input files for use by the FLAMMAP and FARSITE 

programs (Finney 1998). Naturally, the accuracy of fire 

growth projections are limited by the accuracy of the 

weather and wind forecasts used to develop the gridded 

winds. This implies that the uncertainty associated with 

both wind and fire growth projections will increase as 

the simulation progresses forward in time. Gridded wind 

simulations have been used to provide wind input to a 

small number of FARSITE fire growth simulations, in all 

of the simulations completed so far (less than 5) the accuracy of short term (< one day) fire spread projections, as 

compared to actual fire spread histories, has increased.

These simulations assume a neutrally stable atmosphere, meaning that they do not take into account 

density driven flows (diurnal winds and fire induced 

winds). Neglecting these flows introduces some error 

(especially at low wind speeds); however as the upper 

air wind speed increases the relative magnitude of this 

error decreases. Nor does this methodology account 

for momentum transfer due to thermal instability in the 

atmosphere.

Two methods have been utilized to quantify the accuracy of CFD based wind simulations. The first is to 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 597

compare modeled wind speed and direction against direct 

measurements. The second is to compare fire growth 

simulations with and without gridded wind against actual 

fire growth.

A set of measurements were collected specifically for 

the purpose of characterizing surface wind simulations 

(Taylor and Teunissen 1987). The site was a 116 m high 

hill located on the west coast of the island of South Uist in 

the Outer Hebrides of Scotland. Vegetation was relatively 

uniform and consisted primarily of heather and grass. 

Winds were measured using over 50 10 m tall towers 

instrumented with cup anemometers. The towers were 

deployed along three lines (fig. 2). Ten minute mean wind 

speed and direction measured 10 m above ground level 

were recorded during the 3 hour experiment. The overall 

mean direction and speed were 210 degrees and 8.9 m/s 

respectively. Using an input flow speed and direction of 

10 m/s from 210 degrees a CFD-based simulation was 

completed (fig. 3). The simulated wind speeds along line 

A were compared against measured wind speeds (fig. 

4). Generally the modeled wind speeds were within 9 

percent of those measured except for the location approximately 198 m downwind from the intersection of 

the A and B lines were the simulated wind speed was 32 

percent greater than the measured value. This location is 

approximately midslope on the leeward side of the hill 

and is likely related to differences between the steady 

state calculations produced by the CFD-based model and 

the transient nature of turbulent eddies forming on the 

leeward side of the hill (Castro and others 2003). This 

result suggests that the CFD-based methodology may 

not capture the transient nature of the flow. Simulated 

wind direction was also compared against measured 

values (fig. 5). As shown the agreement is not as good 

as that of the speed comparison but is still less than 13 

degrees for all locations. The largest difference between 

the simulated wind direction and measured values were 

greatest near the base of the hill for both the upwind and 

leeward sides.

While the Askervein hill is topographically relatively 

simple, the comparison between simulated and measured 

winds suggests that the CFD-based methodology for 

simulating surface wind flow over mountainous terrain 

can provide relatively accurate information. A second 

evaluation of the relative impact of gridded wind on fire 

behavior modeling was explored by comparing the results 

of two FARSITE simulations of fires spreading over the 

Askervein hill. For the fire growth simulation a point 

ignition was applied near the southwest end of the AA 

line. The first simulation assumed a uniform (constant) 

Figure 1. Example of gridded wind simulation for the Hungry Horse fire that burned in Northwestern Montana during 

the summer of 2003. The white line represents the fire perimeter.
598 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 2. Topographical image of Askervein hill. Anemometer 

towers were deployed along lines A, AA and B. Contour 

interval is 5 m.

Figure 3. Gridded wind simulation results for general input flow 

of 10 m/s from an angle of 210 degrees.

Figure 4. A comparison of measured and predicted wind speeds 

along line A.

Figure 5. A comparison of the variation from the overall 210 

degree flow direction for the measured and predicted winds 

along line A.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 599

wind field in both speed and direction (fig. 6). Because 

the winds are everywhere uniform the simulation does 

not account for the influence of terrain on the wind field, 

except through a slight impact on the midflame wind 

(Rothermel 1972, Finney 1998), and the effect of slope 

on fire spread rate. A second simulation was completed 

using the gridded wind and keeping all other factors equal 

to those of the uniform wind simulation. The fire growth 

over time is indicated by the succeeding fire perimeters 

(fig. 7). A comparison of the relative differences between 

the two images suggests that wind speed and direction 

dramatically affect fire spread even in simple terrain like 

that of the Askervein hill. While no actual fire burned, 

these comparisons illustrate the impact that terrain influenced wind can have on fire growth simulations even 

over relatively short (< one day) periods.

As noted previously, a second method for evaluating 

the accuracy and impact of this technology is to compare 

fire growth simulations against those demonstrated by 

actual fires. Simulations were performed for the Price 

Canyon fire that burned in Southern Utah on June 30, 

2002 (Thomas and Vergari 2002) using the FARSITE fire 

area simulator. The first assumed a constant wind speed 

and direction for the time period of interest based on measurements obtained from remote weather stations in the 

vicinity. The increase in fire size over time is displayed by 

the fire perimeters (fig. 8). As in most naturally burning 

fires, the only method for comparing the accuracy of fire 

spread and growth simulations is by comparing predicted 

fire perimeter at some point in time to that recorded from 

either infrared images, observations from over flights, or 

witness accounts. In this case the fire growth predictions 

for the conditions on June 30 are compared to the final 

fire perimeter published by the incident review team 

(Thomas and Vergari 2002). As shown in the image 

there is significant under prediction of the fire growth 

on the north edge of the fire and over prediction of fire 

growth on the southern edge of the fire. A second set of 

simulations were completed using gridded wind data for 

the same period keeping all other factors the same (fig. 

9). Agreement between the actual and predicted final 

fire perimeters is much better. The discrepancy between 

predicted and actual perimeters on the right (west) edge 

of the fire area is due to a burnout operation that was 

conducted by the firefighters, and was not simulated 

in the FARSITE runs. While these initial test cases are 

not conclusive they suggest that surface wind modeling 

based on commercial CFD software captures variations 

in wind speed and direction at the 100 m scale and that 

wind information at this scale increases the accuracy of 

short term (< one day) fire growth simulations.

Figure 6. FARSITE fire area growth simulation assuming 

uniform wind speed and direction.

Figure 7. FARSITE fire area growth simulation using gridded 

wind simulation.
600 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 9. FARSITE simulation of the Price Canyon Fire using gridded wind data from CFD-based simulation. 

General wind flow input to CFD was from the left to right (west winds). White lines represent successive 

fire perimeters produce from the FARSITE simulation, heavy red line represents actual final fire perimeter. 

Fire started on the extreme left edge of the perimeter along the railroad on the canyon floor.

Figure 8. FARSITE simulation of the Price Canyon Fire assuming uniform wind speed and direction from the left 

to right (west winds). White lines represent successive fire perimeters produce from the FARSITE simulation, 

heavy red line represents actual final fire perimeter. Fire started on the extreme left edge of the perimeter along 

the railroad on the canyon floor.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 601

Conclusions

The CFD-based methodology for simulating the 

influence of terrain on surface wind flow represents a 

new technology, at least from a fire management perspective. Research efforts over the past two years have 

demonstrated that this technology, termed gridded wind, 

can provide highly detailed wind speed and direction 

information in time frames suitable for use by fire incident management teams (Price Canyon Fire-Thomas and 

Vergari 2002; Hayman Fire- Graham 2002). Although 

computationally intensive, the process has been refined 

so that a typical solution (10 to 100 m resolution wind 

speed and direction) on a grid measuring 40 by 40 kilometers can be completed in a matter of two to three 

hours using a laptop computer.

The accuracy of the wind simulations has been evaluated by comparing gridded winds against measured wind 

averages at discrete points. The results indicate general 

agreement and that the simulated gridded wind speeds 

and directions are most accurate for pressure gradients 

such as cold fronts, Foehn (Santa Ana), onshore/offshore 

winds and are less accurate for the low speed density 

driven flows such as those associated with diurnal heating and cooling of the earth’s surface.

Gridded winds are simulations not forecasts. They 

are simulations of what the wind flow would be under 

different general (synoptic) wind scenarios. Gridded 

wind information has been used to identify areas and/

or conditions that may produce high fire intensity and 

spread rates and for identifying locations where fire 

spotting might occur. Comparison of fire growth simulations using the FARSITE fire growth simulator with and 

without gridded wind information have demonstrated 

that the accuracy of short range (< one day) fire growth 

predictions is significantly higher using gridded wind 

than without it.

Acknowledgments

Funding for this study was provided by the Joint 

Fire Sciences Program and the USDA Forest Service. 

Technical support to deploy and maintain portable 

weather stations was provided by Robert Schuette and 

Paul Sopko. The work of Dan Jimenez to develop the 

methodology by which gridded wind could incorporated 

in GIS based shape files has been essential. The efforts 

and support of Kyle Shannon to run and trouble shoot 

the process are sincerely appreciated.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 603

Introduction

Devastating wildfires flaming across large expanses 

of the United States in recent years have galvanized 

politicians, fire managers, and ordinary citizens alike 

in an effort to understand the processes driving catastrophic fire and to develop ways to anticipate when 

and where severe fire is likely to occur over time and 

space. Scientific knowledge and information contributes 

to better fire prediction and management, but requires 

successful dissemination to and use by decision makers. 

An essential first step in this process involves identifying optimal points in the decision networks of agencies 

charged with wildland fire management where such 

information may be inserted into decision processes. 

This, in turn, requires understanding the annual cycle of 

decision making throughout the wildland fire management organizations. The study reported here identifies 

points in decision calendars where climate-fire knowledge may be productively introduced and examines 

the potential value of such information in strategic fire 

planning processes.

Background

Since the 1970s, a dramatic trend has emerged in 

the size of the annual area burned by wildfires in the 

western United States with the average annual reported 

area burned increasing by approximately 85 percent 

per decade in the eleven contiguous western states. 

Concomitant increases in variability in annual area 

burned and in fire suppression costs pose a serious 

challenge for Federal and State land and resource managers.

The variance in annual area burned in the last decade 

is nearly 22 times higher than in the 1970s. Since managers must be prepared for the worst possible scenarios in 

every fire season, increased uncertainty about the scale 

of the western fire season each year imposes high costs 

on public agencies to sustain appropriate levels of preparedness. Recent progress in our understanding of the 

links between climate and wildfire, and in our ability to 

forecast some aspects of both climate and wildfire season 

severity a season or more in advance, offers some hope 

that these costs might be reduced through the increased 

Exploring Use of Climate Information in Wildland Fire 

Management: A Decision Calendar Study

Thomas W. Corringham, Department of Economics, UCSD, La Jolla, CA

Anthony L. Westerling, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, Climate Research Division, 

La Jolla, CA

Barbara J. Morehouse, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, 

Tucson, AZ

Abstract—Wildfire management is an institutionally complex process involving a complex budget and appropriations cycle, a variety of objectives, and a set of internal and 

external political constraints. Significant potential exists for enhancing the use of climate 

information and long-range climate forecasts in wildland fire management in the Western 

U.S. Written surveys and interviews of fire and fuels managers at local, regional, and 

national levels, provide information and insights into the decision processes, information flows, and decision nodes used in wildfire planning and management, and allow 

the construction of decision calendars showing how climate information needs vary 

seasonally, over space, and through the organizational network.

Potential exists for fostering use of climate information, including seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts at all organizational levels, ultimately opening possibilities for 

improved targeting of fuels treatments and prescribed burns, more effective positioning 

and movement of initial attack resources, and improved staffing and budgeting decisions. 

Longer-term (decadal) forecasts could be useful at the national level in setting budget and 

research priorities. We examine the kinds of organizational changes that could facilitate 

effective use of existing climate information and climate forecast capabilities.
604 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

integration of climate information into strategic planning 

for fire and fuels management.

Western wildfires have imposed steep costs in recent 

years. Real average annual suppression costs for the U.S. 

Department of Agriculture’s Forest Service alone have 

increased by a factor of 2.6 over the last two decades, and 

have exceeded $1 billion in three of the last five years. 

Costs for Department of Interior agencies have also increased, exceeding $300 million per year in the last four 

years, more than double the average of the preceding six 

years. While federal agencies’ fire suppression budgets 

have increased recently, funding still reflects what would 

likely be spent in an “average” year. Given that average 

years seldom occur, actual costs tend to fluctuate between 

low and high extremes. Modeling area burned and suppression costs as a function of climate variability alone, 

Westerling and others (2004) found that the probability 

of the Forest Service’s suppression expenses exceeding 

the current annual suppression budget has been over 50 

percent since 1987; this is a substantial increase over 

the preceding 40 years, when the probability was closer 

to one in three.

In addition to the effects of climate variability on wildfire, long-term biomass accumulations in many western 

ecosystems have fueled an increased incidence of large, 

stand-replacing wildfires in areas where such fires were 

previously rare (Allen and others 2002). These severe 

large fires can result in erosion and changes in vegetation type, with consequences for water quality, stream 

flow, future biological productivity of the affected areas, 

and habitat loss for endangered species. Apart from deleterious ecological consequences, severe fires can also 

dramatically affect amenity values of public land for 

recreation and for homeowners living in the wildlandurban interface.

In response to the buildup of fuels following a century 

of active suppression, the National Fire Plan (USDA/

USDOI 1995, 2001, 2002) has charged land management 

agencies with reducing fuels on millions of hectares of 

public lands through mechanical removal, prescribed 

fire and wildland fire use. The project is vast in scope, 

and will take many years to implement. The effective 

application of climate information and climate forecasts 

to fuels management could significantly reduce the costs 

of both fire and fuels management, by allowing managers 

to strategically target areas with the highest risks on a 

seasonal to inter-annual basis. This is one of several uses 

of climate information in wildland fire management. In 

this paper, we identify several more, as the results of a 

decision calendar survey of fire and fuels managers in 

the Western United States.

Organization of Fire Management

Wildland fire management in the US is integrated 

across agencies by the National Interagency Coordinating 

Center (NICC) located in Boise, Idaho, and by 10 

Geographic Area Coordination Centers (GACCs) (fig. 

2). At the same time, wildland fire suppression and 

preparedness activities continue to be managed by a 

variety of national, state, and local agencies. Over half 

of the land in the Western United States is managed 

by federal agencies, encompassing most of the West’s 

wildlands (fig. 3). Each agency works at different organizational levels, ranging from federal agency offices 

in Washington D.C. and the National Interagency Fire 

Center in Boise, ID, to regional agency offices, GACCs, 

and local administrative units managing the crews and 

equipment needed to actually carry out fire suppression 

and fuels management.

Figure 2. Geographic Areas for wildland fire 

management.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 605

To keep the survey process manageable, we focused on 

two agencies, the Forest Service (USFS) and the National 

Park Service (NPS) and on three organizational levels of 

management: the local level, the regional level, and the 

national level. Locally, fire managers, fuels managers, 

and fire chiefs work within National Parks and Forests, 

which are overseen by regional offices of the NPS and 

the USFS. These positions report to national offices of 

the NPS and the USFS, which are located, respectively, 

within the Departments of the Interior and Agriculture.

National Parks and Forests also coordinate their fire 

suppression and fuels management activities under the 

auspices of regional interagency fire management organizations and administrative bodies: GACCs mentioned 

above and MAC groups (Multi Agency Coordination 

Groups), which operate during the peak fire season to 

coordinate all the resources available in the different 

agencies so as to maximize efficiency in fighting wildland 

fires. Outside of the fire season, most interaction between 

the National Parks and Forests and their regional and national offices involves budgeting and planning activities. 

Some planning and fuels treatment work is coordinated 

with the GACCs and NIFC also. A simplified flow chart 

shows the organizational levels and links of interest in 

this study (fig. 4).

Fire weather and climate information and forecasts 

feed into the decision processes at different levels from 

several sources. At the national level the Fire Weather 

Service, a division of NOAA’s National Weather Service 

(NWS), provides a variety of weather and climate products for use by fire managers. At the regional level, the 

GACCs have Intel and Predictive Services divisions that 

gather and disseminate weather and climate information 

from the NWS, from Regional Integrated Science and 

Assessment programs (RISAs), and from 

their own fire meteorologists. The use of 

climate products varies from region to 

region, partly due to the different climatic 

conditions in the different regions, partly 

due to different levels of interest and 

experience among regional personnel. 

At the local level, climate and weather 

information is obtained from the GACCs 

and the NWS, and, at some parks and 

forests, from staff fire meteorologists. 

Local fire managers are generally highly 

sophisticated users of short-term weather 

information as it relates to suppression 

activities; however, the use and comprehension of longer-term climate products 

is highly variable.

Traditionally short-term weather information has been 

used to great effect operationally in wildland fire suppression during the fire season. With increasingly long 

and severe fire seasons, and with an increased emphasis 

among federal agencies to restore natural fire regimes 

to ecosystems through use of fuels treatments such as 

mechanical thinning, prescribed fires and wildland fire 

use, longer-term climate information products are finding 

use to support longer term planning decisions.

Climate Science and Climate Forecasts

Over the past several decades, there has been increasing interest in developing a better understanding of the 

use of scientific and forecasting information by decision 

makers (Sarewitz and others 2000, Stern and Easterling 

1999). The Regional Integrated Science and Assessment 

Program funded by the US National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Global Programs 

(NOAA-OGP) funds research specifically designed to 

identify climate information and forecast needs and foster 

utilization of climate information in the regional scale in 

the United States. The Climate Impacts Group (CIG) in 

the US Pacific Northwest, for example has been working with water managers to integrate long-term climate 

change information into their decision processes (Miles 

and others 2000). Likewise the California Applications 

Project (CAP) works closely with water managers and 

administrators to incorporate climate change information into planning at state and sub-state scales. In the US 

Southwest, water and rural livelihoods are among the research foci of the Climate Assessment for the Southwest 

(CLIMAS) project (Morehouse and others 2000).

Scientific information and forecasts can provide 

important guidance to decision makers who are concerned about reducing risks to vulnerable populations, 

ecosystems, and the built environment, reducing their 

Figure 3. Federally managed land in the Western United 

States.
606 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

operational costs, diminishing the potential for lawsuits 

or other challenges to their decisions and activities, and 

managing in a more rational manner the resources for 

which they are responsible. For example, information 

about past climatic conditions can prompt decision makers to change their assumptions about what constitutes 

“normal” climatic conditions; this in turn can influence 

the degree and nature of extreme conditions they include 

in their infrastructure planning and construction activities. Historical climate information is also useful for 

anticipating the potential intensity of threats to life and 

property in planning for emergency preparedness. The 

recent drought conditions in Arizona and New Mexico, 

for example, have been outside the norms assumed by 

water managers, fire managers, and forest managers. In 

providing information about the swings in climatic conditions over time scales of more than 100 years (the length 

of the historical record in this region), scientists provide 

information that is useful for developing new and better 

plans for responding to severe drought stress, and for 

refining models used to anticipate biophysical drought 

responses such as likely streamflow and reservoir levels, 

and fuel moisture conditions.

With the phenomenal growth in the provision of information via the internet over the past decade, access 

to all sorts of scientific information has become virtually 

ubiquitous. Indeed, complaints are frequently heard that 

there is so much information that people have difficulty 

not only knowing what information to use, but also in 

assimilating the vast amount of information available 

into useful syntheses. Climate forecasts, for example, are 

readily accessible via the NOAA web site and from other 

entities such as the International Research Institute (IRI). 

Knowing which forecasts are useful for what purposes, as 

well as the temporal and spatial distribution of forecast 

accuracy and skill is daunting. Workshops such as those 

conducted by CLIMAS for fire and fuel managers and decision makers (Morehouse 2000, Garfin and Morehouse 

2001, Garfin and others 2003), provide opportunities to 

learn about the information that is available, how forecasts are made, and how much confidence forecasters 

place in their products over time and geographical space. 

Through interactions with climatologists, participants are 

also able to determine which types of information are 

most useful for what purposes, over what time periods, 

and in what areas.

Similarly, recent advances in assessing the skill and 

accuracy of climate forecasts promises to reduce some of 

the perplexity in using forecasts (Hartmann et al 2002). 

Such information provides decision makers with insight 

into how much weight they should place on certain 

forecasts, given the set of variables they must evaluate. 

Because climate forecasts are probabilistic in nature, it 

is never possible to have a 100-percent dependable prediction. However, scientific information about forecast 

skill and accuracy provides a means to understand how 

much reliance to place on any given forecast. This type of 

information has been identified repeatedly as among the 

most-needed types of knowledge, for scientific information to be integrated into decision processes.

Examples of Climate Information 

Uses in Wildland Fire Management: 

Budgeting, Staffing, Suppression, and 

Fuels Treatment

Several examples may be identified where scientific 

information and forecasts can play an important role in 

fire management. First, the National Fire Plan requires 

planning out 10 years (Departments of Agriculture and 

Interior 2001). In contrast, forecasts of wildfire season 

area burned can be made with reliable confidence for up 

to two years in advance in the Southwest, up to a year 

in advance in some interior basins, and up to a season 

in advance in many other parts of the western United 

States. For longer time horizons, instrumental and paleo 

records can provide analogous scenarios that can be used 

to explore the possible extent in space, time, and impact 

of extreme conditions that might affect fire regimes in 

wildlands. Such information can be incorporated into 

long-range forest and fuels planning.

Figure 4. Wildland Fire Management Organizational 

Flowchart.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 607

Second, at more immediate time scales, forecasts and 

other information provide support for annual budget requests for fire management, and at the seasonal level, for 

emergency funding requests. In the West, such requests 

are formulated in February when enough of the winter 

has passed for managers to have an early insight into the 

likely severity of the upcoming fire season. These funding 

requests are predicated on an assessment of the resources 

needed to suppress fires. As the fire season approaches, 

shorter-term climate information can provide decision 

makers with information that is useful for refining plans 

for suppression activities, for possibilities related to 

fire use (for example, allowing already-ignited fires to 

burn in areas where such burns would be beneficial to 

the landscape), and for allocating resources. Fiscal-year 

suppression-expenditure estimates, which are based on 

observed and forecast climate, and are updated on a 

regular basis throughout the fire season, are also used to 

keep the USDA, USDI and Congress apprised of funding needs.

Prescribed burning is another area where scientific 

information is essential. Climate information for the 

past several years and for the upcoming season or year 

allows managers to determine the relative risk of carrying out prescribed burns, based on current and predicted 

conditions. For example, managers can compare existing conditions to those of analogous years in the past, 

based on scientific analysis of the instrumental and paleo 

records of fire occurrence and climate conditions in the 

region. Forecasts provide insights into the likelihood of 

anomalous wet or dry conditions, as well as of “normal” 

conditions (for example, those that were statistically 

prevalent over the thirty-year record; currently the base 

data are for 1970-2000). Prescribed burning plans can 

also be informed by scientific information such as that 

produced by remote sensing; for example, NDVI “greenness maps,” which provide geo-referenced information 

about vegetation moisture conditions.

All of the above decision activities at some point 

require plans and action with regard to assembling and 

allocating resources. The number of fire fighters and 

support personnel needed must be identified, vendors 

to provide support services must be contracted, and 

aircraft and other equipment needs must be detailed. 

The decision calendar that we have employed in this 

study highlights these types of decision nodes, and the 

entry points where climate and related scientific information may be most readily and effectively introduced. 

It is at these points that use of scientific information 

and forecasts is most likely to improve district and 

forest-level fire management planning, budgeting, and 

decision-making.

Survey Methods

To construct fire management decision calendars 

showing the use of climate information, a survey was 

conducted in 2002-2003 of nine fire management officers and decision makers based in the Southwest and 

California, and of several dozen members of wildland 

fire management groups assembled for other purposes. 

Conversations with several key decision makers responsible for interagency coordination provided supplemental 

background information. We selected a structured, keyinformant survey approach for our study as this was the 

most efficient way to obtain the required information, 

and it provided a means of gathering information from 

informants in a consistent format.

The survey was designed to gather a range of information. First, we asked respondents to complete a 

decision calendar, specifying when during the fire year 

key prevention and suppression decisions are made, 

and indicating the extent to which climate information 

and climate forecasts are used to support these decision-making processes. We asked informants to specify 

what climate information and climate forecasts are used, 

where these products are obtained, and what additional 

climate products managers would find useful. We asked 

respondents about their perceptions of the limitations of 

these products, in terms of the accuracy of forecasts and 

in terms of other constraints in the decision processes. 

We asked if agencies kept records of yearly management 

goals and of post-season evaluations, and if respondents 

could provide examples of climate information successes 

and failures. Finally, we asked respondents to rank a 

set of wildland fire management objectives in terms of 

importance.

The inclusion of a decision calendar format was a key 

feature of our survey design. Decision calendars, as we 

define them here, are temporally organized structures that 

reflect the timing of planning and decision making in the 

course of a regular fire year. Decision calendars have been 

used previously in integrated climate assessments. We 

based our calendar format on that used by Weiner (2004). 

Using this approach allowed us to determine what sorts 

of plans and decisions were important at which times of 

the year. This in turn allowed us to associate the timing 

of decisions, historical climate conditions during those 

periods, and forecasts for those time periods.

The survey selection process itself was structured, 

rather than random. We chose to focus geographically 

on the Southwest and the Pacific Southwest Regions. 

Second, within these regions, we targeted fire managers 

in national parks and forests where we had an existing 

connection or that were relatively accessible. Third, we 
608 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

took advantage of meetings we were attending for other 

purposes to conduct interviews with selected attendees. 

The small number of Parks and Forests we survey happen 

to have high levels of prescribed fire activity, which may 

bias our results. In spite of these limitations, we collected 

a comprehensive and varied sample of respondents in 

the targeted regions. The framework we employ could 

readily be extended to generate a more complete picture 

of climate information use for fire and fuels management 

throughout the United States.

Survey Results

While the number of respondents was too low to 

conduct a statistical evaluation of responses, valuable insights emerged from the project’s focus on key 

informants who provided information that could be 

generalized across all fire management groups in the 

Forest Service and Park Service.

The decision calendars obtained (fig. 5) from our respondents show several interesting patterns. The types 

of decisions that are made throughout the year can be 

broken into several groups: pre-season planning, staffing decisions, monitoring of conditions, prescribed fire 

activities and other fuels management activities such 

as thinning and pile burning, peak season suppression 

activities, regular season budget requests and allocation 

decisions, and emergency severity funding requests.

The timing of these activities varies over the geographical extent of our study areas. In particular, the peak 

suppression season differs in length and actual time of 

year from region to region. Southern California has a long 

season with a special concern in the late fall/early winter season when strong Santa Ana winds are dominant. 

The Sierra Nevada in central and northern California 

has a relatively short season in comparison, while New 

Mexico and Arizona fire seasons depend heavily on the 

onset and wetness of the June-August monsoon season. 

Of particular concern is the probability of dry lighting 

igniting fires in the pre-monsoon period. Monsoon rains 

typically end the spring/summer fire season, although 

a second fire season may occur in the fall after the end 

of the monsoon season. Similarly, optimal windows for 

prescribed fire and fuels management activities also vary 

greatly across the study areas.

The decision calendars also differ across organizational levels. Local staffing decisions involve seasonal 

staffing, training, and determination of hiring and lay-off 

dates. Local budgeting involves the internal allocation of 

funds, annual funding requests, and peak season severity 

funding requests. Local pre-suppression activities include 

fuels treatments, prescribed fire, broadcast burns, pile 

burning, and mechanical thinning projects. Local suppression activities include the pre-positioning of local 

resources, movement of resources, mutual aid decisions, 

severity requests, large fire management (planning and 

implementation), fire use (planning and implementation), 

fire prevention, restrictions, and area closures. Other 

local activities reported by survey respondents include 

outreach, public education, special staffing, training, 5-

year planning and analysis, and Geographic Information 

System (GIS) analysis.

Regional and national level activities include suppression support for large fires or multiple fire events, 

or widespread high fire danger or preparedness levels, 

strategic pre-positioning and movement of resources, 

again, generally when high danger conditions are present, 

planning and budgeting work, and the dissemination of 

information. Research and changes in overall organizational structure are managed at the national level.

Potential for Improved Use of Climate 

Information

Based on survey responses, we have identified the 

following decision processes that would benefit from 

enhanced use of climate information.

At the national level (NIFC and Washington DC 

offices of the NPS and USFS), national annual and interannual budget requests and allocations are conducted in 

the late winter and early spring. Budgeting procedures 

could be improved by explicitly taking seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasts into consideration, as could 

communications with Congress throughout the fiscal 

year. National suppression activities and mobilization 

decisions during the peak fire season, and preparedness 

and presuppression planning and budgeting in the offseason could be made more cost-effective through greater 

reliance on climate products. Finally, inter-annual and 

decadal forecasts could be considered in the formulation 

of the research agenda of the Joint Fire Science Program 

(JFSP) Board.

At the regional level (regional offices of the NPS, 

USFS, and the GACCs), regional budgeting and resource 

allocation activities occur before and during the fire 

season. Annual hiring, training, and staffing decisions 

are made leading up to the fire season, as are decisions 

concerning the pre-positioning of initial attack resources. 

These decision processes could benefit from increased 

use of seasonal and annual climate forecasts. The allocation of resources to fire suppression and prescribed 

fire activities occurs throughout the year, and regional 

mobilization decisions and mutual aid decisions are 

made during the peak fire season. These decisions could 

be improved through greater reliance on seasonal and 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 609

Figure 5a. Decision Calendars.
610 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

monthly climate forecasts, and through a standardized 

and integrated use of climate information products and 

climate forecasts.

At the local level, hiring, training, and staffing decisions are made leading up to the fire season, and could 

benefit from specific forecasts of expected fire season 

timing, length, and severity. The internal allocation of 

resources to suppression and prescribed fire activities 

is conducted before and during the fire season, as is 

the setting of annual targets for prescribed fire, fire use, 

and fuels treatment. These decisions could be improved 

through greater reliance on seasonal forecasts. External 

budget requests are made annually a year in advance, to 

regional offices, and could be set more accurately with the 

aid of annual climate forecasts, potentially reducing the 

need to rely on severity funds during the peak season.

From a longer-term perspective, Fire Management 

Plans (FMPs) are revised on a five-year cycle in conjunction with land management plans. In addition to 

responding to political and economic pressures, these 

FMPs could also be tuned to climate outlooks (for 

Figure 5b.

example, setting burn targets, prescriptions, and boundaries conditional on long-range climate trends and cycles). 

A potential difficulty involves the varying levels of access to climate information and to trained climatologists 

from unit to unit. A program could be established through 

which Predictive Services meteorologists at the GACCs 

provide oversight and assistance.

Also considering long-term objectives, at the national 

level the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP) Board sets 

the national wildland fire research agenda. A greater 

emphasis on climate information systems and the role of 

climate forecasts in wildland fire management decisions 

could lead to improvements in the quality of forecasts 

available to wildland fire managers.

Institutional Barriers to Using Seasonal 

Forecasts in Fire Management

Several important institutional barriers exist to the 

use of seasonal forecast information by fire managers. 

One is the federally required two-year budget cycle, 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 611

Figure 5c.

which allows little latitude for shifting funds regarding 

forest treatment activities based on climatic conditions 

that arise after budgets are submitted and approved. For 

example, given the high probability of La Nina conditions producing anomalously dry conditions during the 

winter in the Southwest (Gershunov and Barnett 1998), 

a reasonably confident La Nina prediction the winter 

before a fire season should prompt a new analysis of 

budget allocations to address the emerging fire risk for 

that season. However, current policies afford little room 

for such adjustments to allocations of funds to avert or 

suppress fires in the region.

This institutional constraint is related to another barrier, the lack of flexibility in authorizing legislation, at the 

federal level, to make regional or local-level modifications 

in policies that reflect ground-level realities. For example, 

fire managers argue that it should not be so cumbersome to 

obtain permission from the USFWS to treat areas protected by the Endangered Species Act. Climate information 

offers another tool for assisting both fire managers and 

USFWS specialists in arriving at management strategies 

that take into account the vicissitudes of environmental 

variability and change, as well as the strong mandate to 

protect threatened and endangered species.

A third area of institutional disjuncture between availability and effective use of climate information involves 

the lack of flexibility in the fire planning process itself. 

Organizational inertia is partly to blame. As Lach and 

Ingram (2003) have shown for water managers, changes 

only tend to be made when extraordinary conditions 

result in the inability of existing practices and policies 

to address the problems. Understanding how and when 

innovation can occur (such as the use of climate information and forecasts to make fire management decisions) 

is crucial for devising ways to communicate appropriate 

information, and to providing the information at the appropriate time, to the appropriate people. Understanding 

the decision calendars of fire managers provides a means 

of beginning this task.

The fourth area of constraints involves the mismatch 

between decision calendars and forecast time horizons. 

One solution is to adjust the timing and content of forecasts to fit the temporal and spatial patterns of decision 

making. Recent efforts to establish annual fire-climatefuels assessment processes for the US West and the US 

Southeast, for example, have included the development 

of specific consensus climate forecasts for the time 

periods of most concern to fire and fuels managers, 
612 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

particularly those associated with pre-season planning 

for resource allocation (Garfin and others 2003).

A more challenging solution would be to alter the 

timing of funding decisions, and planning horizons to 

recognize and respond to the spatial and temporal vicissitudes of environmental variability and change. If 

congressionally allocated funds could be spent for prescribed burns and other treatments over inter-annual or 

decadal time horizons, or if tradeoffs in funding could be 

made over larger regions, it would be easier for managers 

to adjust their fire management plans to reflect forecasts 

and impacts of ENSO conditions, including multi-year 

combinations of wet and dry conditions.

Conclusions and 

Recommendations

Climate information is currently widely used by fire 

managers, but there is potential for greater and more effective use of available information. The results presented 

here could be readily extended to other land management 

agencies, and to State and local fire agencies. In some 

cases the science and technology is available to integrate 

climate information into decision making, although organizational changes may be required to fully realize the 

value and increased efficiency of climate forecasts and 

information. In other cases, forecast accuracy will have to 

be increased before decision makers in the fire management sector will be willing to change their management 

strategies in a manner that integrates such information.

On the basis of our survey results, we recommend 

a review of management procedures to make various 

decision processes more flexible, and to allow forwardlooking use of climate information and climate forecasts. 

For example, climate forecasts could be used to set more 

realistic fuels management goals at the unit level, and to 

strategically set priorities for fuels management and prescribed fire treatments. We also recommend a review of 

wildland fire budgeting procedures at the local, regional, 

and national levels, again taking climate considerations 

into account.

The National Fire Plan notes that “Critical to fire 

science program success are mechanisms to ensure that 

the information is transferred to land and fire managers 

in a usable form.” (USDA/USDOI, 2001). The National 

Wildfire Coordinating Group (NWCG) Fire Weather 

Working Team has been charged with assessing current 

and projected requirements for fire weather products as 

part of its ongoing efforts to address fire weather issues. 

In this task, collaboration with Regionally Integrated 

Science Assessment groups (RISAs) could be highly 

productive. Training in the use of climate information 

could be provided at the Fire Management Leadership 

course at the National Advanced Resource Technology 

Center (NARTC).

Considering the wide variation in the use of climate 

information and forecasts, and in the climate-related 

expertise of wildland fire and fuels managers, we 

recommend that one clearing house for information be established, to allow the sharing of information and analysis 

across all agencies and at all institutional levels. Further, 

to ensure a high standard of use of climate information 

and forecasts we suggest that climate forecasts be explicitly considered in the National Interagency Mobilization 

Guide, in Geographic Area Mobilization Guides, in the 

interagency Wildland Fire Situation Analysis (WFSA), 

and in interagency Allocation of Resources protocols.

Realizing the full potential of climate information and 

forecasts will require the collaborative effort of several 

agencies and the climate science community. The potential gains from such an effort would be significant, 

however, and can be facilitated by a detailed understanding of the decision making processes involved in wildland 

fire agencies, the timing of such decision processes, and 

the kinds of information requested by fire managers 

across the United States.

References

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Introduction

Recognizing the need for comprehensive, long-term 

monitoring of ecological resources within the U.S. 

National Park System, the National Park Service (NPS) 

undertook a major new initiative in 1998 to develop a 

program for long-term monitoring of “Vital Signs,” or 

indicators, of ecological integrity within the parks. Vital 

signs (VS) are key elements, processes, or features of 

the environment that can be measured or estimated and 

that indicate the ecological integrity of an ecosystem. 

This Inventory & Monitoring (I&M) program is being 

implemented within 270 parks, which have been grouped 

into 32 park networks, using a consistent framework and 

process (Fancy, this proceedings; Gross, this proceedings). A core science team is working with the 11 parks 

of the Northeast Temperate Network (NETN) to identify 

appropriate regional and park-specific indicators and 

measures of ecological integrity and to establish protocols for their measurement (table 1). As with other NPS 

Networks, the NETN team has focused on identifying 

indicators representing the diversity of ecological systems and anthropogenic stressors within NETN parks at 

a range of ecological scales. The challenge has been to 

Monitoring Ecological Resources within U.S. National 

Parks: Developing “Vital Signs” of Ecological Integrity for 

the Northeast Temperate Network

Don Faber-Langendoen, Senior Ecologist, NatureServe and Adjunct Associate Professor, 

State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry (SUNY ESF), 

Syracuse, NY

Geraldine Tierney, Post-doctoral Associate and James Gibbs, Associate Professor at SUNY 

ESF, Syracuse, NY

Greg Shriver, Network Coordinator and Fred Dieffenbach, biologist/data manager, 

Northeast Temperate Network, National Park Service, Woodstock, VT

Pam Lombard, hydrologist, U.S. Geological Survey, Augusta, ME

Abstract—The National Park Service (NPS) initiated a new “Vital Signs” program in 

1998 to develop comprehensive, long-term monitoring of ecological resources within 

U.S. national parks. Vital signs (VS) are indicators, and are defined as key elements, 

processes or features of the environment that can be measured or estimated and that 

indicate the ecological integrity of an ecosystem. A core science team is working with the 

11 parks of the Northeast Temperate Network (NETN) to identify appropriate regional 

and park-specific indicators of ecological integrity, and to develop criteria for assessing 

changes. The team identified VS representing the diversity of ecological systems and 

anthropogenic stressors within NETN parks at a range of ecological scales. In Phase 1, 

baseline inventories and analysis of threats provided information to build conceptual 

ecological models for four ecosystem groups – terrestrial, wetland, aquatic, and intertidal 

systems. In Phase 2, the core science team developed a list of more than 100 potential 

VS. This preliminary list was peer-reviewed through workshops, from which a final list 

of 22 high priority VS, with 104 associated potential measures, was developed. In Phase 

3, protocols will be developed for each VS measure. Statistical power analysis and cost 

assessment will be an integral part of Phase 3 in order that the final set of measured 

VS produce reliable inference within cost constraints of NETN. Standard summaries 

of statistical trends in VS measures will be compiled. Importantly, each measure will 

also have a rating scheme to allow integration of VS into an overall ecological integrity 

rank (A-D) for particular occurrences of an ecosystem. These ranks, currently used by 

NatureServe and the Network of Natural Heritage Programs, provide an important 

communication tool for managers. An example is presented for jack pine woodland in 

Acadia National Park.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 615

identify a coherent set of indicators that cover the range 

of ecological resources and stressors found in the network 

within the budgetary constraints of the program, and that 

can be meaningfully compared to other NPS networks, as 

well as indicator programs outside the NPS. NETN Vital 

Signs must also provide information that allows park 

managers to respond when changes to park ecological 

integrity are detected.

The need to compile a coherent set of indicators and 

measures that encompass essential aspects of ecosystem 

structure and function and contribute to an adaptive 

management program has led to increasing interest in 

the development of measures or indices of ecological 

integrity (Karr and Chu 1995; Harwell and others 1999; 

Andreasen and others 2001, Young and Sanzone 2002; 

Parrish and others 2003). At the outset, understanding 

the dynamic nature of park ecosystems and the consequences of human activities is essential for management 

decision-making aimed to maintain, enhance, or restore 

the ecological integrity of park ecosystems and to 

avoid, minimize, or mitigate ecological threats to these 

systems (Fancy, this proceeding). Although our current 

understanding of these dynamics is far from complete, 

indices of ecological integrity should allow managers to 

discriminate between changes in indicators and measures 

that fall within the bounds of normal system dynamics 

from those that require a management response (Woodley 

1993).

The overall process for developing the NPS VS 

program has been described elsewhere in this proceeding (Fancy, this proceedings, Gross, this proceedings). 

Briefly, the I&M Vital Signs Program incorporates a 

three-phase approach: Phase 1) define goals and objectives; begin the process of identifying, evaluating and 

synthesizing existing data; develop draft conceptual 

models; and complete other background work; Phase 2) 

prioritize and select VS and develop specific 

monitoring objectives for each park and the 

network; and Phase 3) develop detailed plans 

to implement monitoring, including the development of sampling protocols, a statistical 

sampling design, a plan for data management 

and analysis, and expectations for reports and 

other presentation of results. Herein we focus 

primarily on the NETN Phase 2 process – the 

prioritization and selection of Vital Signs – but 

we also briefly summarize our efforts in Phase 

1 to develop conceptual ecological models, 

which provide a foundation and summary tool 

for indicator selection, and preview our next 

steps in Phase 3.

Phase 1: Conceptual Modeling

During the initial phase of the VS program, baseline 

data assessments are compiled, including results from 

12 baseline inventories that the U.S. Geological Survey 

(USGS) I&M Program provide for each park. These include species group inventories, such as mammals, birds, 

herptiles, and exotic species, as well as comprehensive 

park mapping of ecosystems and communities through 

the USGS Vegetation Mapping Program (biology.usgs.

gov/npsveg/). These maps are based on the federal U.S. 

National Vegetation Classification standards (FGDC 

1997) and NatureServe Ecological System classification 

(Comer and others 2003). When all 11 parks are completed, these maps will provide a consistent ecosystem 

inventory across the Network. Park staff also completed 

a threats assessment 2001 to 2003 to assist in prioritizing 

VS. These inventory data provided the basic information 

needed to develop conceptual models that could be used 

to communicate the primary threats, stressors, natural 

resource priorities, and ecological condition within 

Network parks, and ultimately identify indicators of 

ecological integrity.

Conceptual ecological models are useful tools for 

summarizing and communicating ecological knowledge. 

Our intent in building these models is to predict linkages 

between ecological resources, key stressors, and elements of ecological integrity, and to use this information 

to select appropriate Vital Signs. These models should 

facilitate development of indicators that are a useful subset of measurable ecosystem features or processes that 

are particularly information-rich, in that their values are 

indicative of the integrity of the larger ecological system 

to which they belong (Parrish and others 2003).

Within NETN, we employed a conceptual model that 

includes both stressor (threats) and ecological condition 

Table 1. Parks included in the Northeast Temperate Network, showing park 

name, state, and park size (in acres). NP = National Park, NST = National 

Scenic Trail, NHP=National Historical Park, NHS=National Historic Site, 

NPA = National Park Area. Only the northern section of the Appalachian 

NST (from Maine to Pennsylvania) lies within the NETN. Other networks 

assess the southern sections.

Park Name State Size (acres)

Acadia NP Maine 47,498

Appalachian NST Maine-Georgia 85,036

Boston Harbor Islands NPA Massachusetts 1,465

Marsh-Billings-Rockefeller NHP Vermont 643

Minute Man NHP Massachusetts 967

Morristown NHP New Jersey 1,707

Roosevelt-Vanderbilt NHS New York 775

Saint-Gaudens NHS New Hampshire 150

Saratoga NHP New York 3,392

Saugus Iron Works NHS Massachusetts 9

Weir Farm NHS Connecticut 74
616 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

components, visually depicting how system components 

interact. An accompanying narrative provides specific 

details of our understanding of the systems. We chose a 

hierarchical approach to model development, beginning 

with a general model for each of four key NETN ecological system groups --terrestrial, wetland, aquatic and 

intertidal ecological systems (figure 1). These general 

models identify key ecosystem drivers, stressors, ecological processes, elements of ecosystem condition and 

landscape context, and focal park resources within each 

of these four major system groups. The categories for 

our model include 1) Drivers, Stressors, and Landscape 

Features, 2) Ecological Condition, and 3) Focal Park 

Resources. Ecosystem drivers are major external forces 

such as disturbance regimes, hydrology, geomorphology, 

or climate that have large-scale influences on natural 

systems. Stressors are natural or anthropogenic forces 

of change acting upon ecosystems. Landscape features 

include landscape context, which refers to features of the 

surrounding environment that affect the ecosystem of 

interest at the “landscape” scale. Ecological condition in 

these models is comprised of elements biotic and abiotic 

condition, usually at the “stand” scale, such as population trend of selected species, or air quality. Ecological 

processes such as nutrient cycling or phenology are also 

considered as elements of ecological condition. Finally, 

these models include focal park resources that, by virtue 

of their special protection, public appeal, or other management significance, have paramount importance for 

monitoring regardless of their relevance to ecosystem 

integrity. These models and associated narrative are

continually updated as new information about the systems becomes available.

Phase 2: Selection of Vital 

Signs

We prioritized and selected potential Vital Signs using 

a sequential peer review process. A core science team 

of six staff (representing expertise in forest ecology and 

vegetation science, aquatic ecology, wetland ecology, 

amphibians, ornithology, biogeochemistry, conservation 

biology, and ecological data management) first drafted a 

list of over 100 potential VS representing the three major 

categories identified in the conceptual models. This was 

a comprehensive list -- targeted to ecological systems 

present within NETN—that spanned spatial, temporal, 

and biological scales of organization.

We reviewed and prioritized this list with a multi-stage 

process, comprised of 1) initial review by the NETN core 

science team, which initiated the list of VS and criteria 

for selection (table 2); 2) external peer-review by a group 

of more than 40 scientists and park managers; 3) review 

by the NETN Technical Steering Committee, composed 

of both external scientists and NPS staff., 4) additional 

review by NETN core science team, and 5) National I&M 

Program Review and Approval (in process).

This review process has, to date, generated a list of 

22 VS (table 3). In the process of selecting the VS, we 

also identified specific measures for quantifying each VS 

(table 3). Ongoing review will ensure a coherent list of 

VS that are responsive to park needs, fiscally reasonable, 

and scientifically sound.

Phase 3: Protocols and 

Ecological Integrity 

Assessment

NETN will begin Phase 3 during fall 2004. The primary focus of Phase 3 is to develop specific measures 

and protocols for each VS. We plan to emphasize four 

features – 1) consider tiers of VS measures, 2) assess 

how bundling and considerations of effect size on VS 

measures affects costs, 3) development of standard 

summaries of statistical trends in VS measures, and 4) 

use of an ecological integrity scorecard. First, we will 

consider a tiered approach to the measures and VS. Not 

all VS are equally accessible and measurable. A first 

tier of measures may rely on remote sensing imagery 

and rapid ground assessments. A second tier may rely 

on more detailed monitoring, perhaps requiring greater 

temporal and spatial sampling.

Figure 1. Example of a conceptual model for the wetlands 

ecosystem group. The key shows the major categories 

that organize the various vital signs. Similar models exist 

for terrestrial, aquatic and intertidal, and for each park. 

Stressors that are asterisked, and all vital signs inside the 

circle, were selected as part of the final Vital Signs list (see 

table 3).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 617

Second, we will consider a bundled approach to protocol development. Rather than developing protocols and 

estimating costs for each VS independently, we plan to 

approach the problem conceptually as it will eventually 

be tackled in the field, that is, by field crews measuring 

multiple VS on co-located plots to the full extent possible. Thus we are proceeding into Phase II as follows: 

(1) all VS will be represented by one or more measure, 

(2) multiple measures at co-located sites will represent 

“bundles” (which may cross multiple vital signs) that will 

be recorded by field crews trained to measure the particular bundle of VS (for example, forest mensuration, soil 

chemistry, amphibians, and invasive understory plants 

could be the focus of the “forest health bundle,” (3) the 

first measure selected for a given bundle includes all base 

costs for travel to the plot; measures subsequently added 

to a bundle assume only incremental cost associated with 

adding them to bundle (in many cases no or little additional cost), (4) overall costs are calculated based on cost 

of an individual measurement * number of measurements 

needed to detect change (assuming statistical errors type 

I = type II = 0.10) * number of parks where measured X 

number of ecosystems with each park for which inference is to be made, and (5) sampling designs represented 

by repeat measurements of permanent plots. Some VS 

measures will be essentially censuses (for example, land 

cover change analysis) and thus will involve a single “up 

front” cost. Significant decisions have yet to be made on 

effect size sought for detection for each VS measure, as 

these dramatically affect sample size and hence overall 

cost. By proceeding with an assessment of potential VS 

measures in the manner described about we will track the 

accrual of monitoring costs and terminate the VS measure 

selection process once available financial resources for 

conducting the monitoring are allocated.

Third, we will address how to perform standard 

synthesis of VS trends. Because VS data will consist 

of repeated measures of continuous metrics, we will 

perform standard summaries of statistical trends in VS 

measures. These will include aggregate trends among 

related indicators and aggregate trends among indicators 

within particular ecosystem types. Because many VS 

will be measures at co-located sites, correlations among 

them will also permit general inferences to be made about 

potential causes of ongoing trends observed in the VS.

Fourth, we will develop the use of ecological integrity 

ranks. These tools are needed to take a program from 

collection of field data for indicators and measures to 

interpretation of those values that allow managers to 

determine whether or not ecological integrity is changing 

in the parks. This interpretation does not supersede the 

precise analysis of the field data themselves, but does 

inform the intensity of their sampling and the response of 

managers to changes in those data. In other words, a good 

monitoring program needs to set objectives for measuring indicators based on the best current understanding 

of how ecological systems work, baselines that include 

reference conditions from known high quality sites, and 

Table 2. Summary of 4 main criteria used to screen potential list of vital signs during the Phase 2 peer review process.

1. Management

Significance 3. Feasibility of 4. Response

& Utility 2. Ecological Relevance Implementation Variability

Relevant to assessment Clear linkage to ecological Availability of standard, Low or controllable measurement

questions function or integrity or well-documented methods error, high repeatability of

specific resource measurement, quantitative & 

objective

Sensitive to and/or Anticipatory Lack of sampling impacts Temporal variability (both within and

indicative of stress on indicator between seasons) predictable and/or

described

Not redundant unless Indicative of status of other Rapid, cost-efficient and/or Spatial variability understood or

improves performance resources can be bundled with other controllable

indicators for measurement

Relative to determining Baseline data available Sufficient discriminatory ability, both

quantitative thresholds along a long-term condition gradient

for condition and in terms of statistical power

Linked to management Easily measured with little

actions equipment or specialized 

knowledge, and large 

sampling window

Widely applicable Long-term data management

(geographic, across feasibility

ecosystems, and for 

multiple purposes)
618 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. Table 3. Northeast Temperate Network VS list, August 2004. Vital Signs (VS) are presented within the NPS Vital Signs Program national framework to create reporting consistency among networks. Potential measures in italics will be investigated for inclusion during Phase 3 but require further evaluation. No. of Parks indicates the number of NETN parks within which each VS will be monitored. Network Vial Level 1 Level 2 Sign Name Potential Measures No of Parks Air and Climate Air Quality 1. Ozone Atmospheric ozone concentration (synthesize existing data), 7 (foliar injury to indicator species) 2. Acidic deposition & stress Wet and dry deposition rates (synthesize existing data), 7 soil nitrification, soil base cation availability, soil Ca:Al ratio, streamwater ANC, streamwater nitrate concentration (Total deposition rates including occult) 3. Contaminants Heavy metal deposition (synthesize existing data) 11 Weather and Climate 4. Climate Air temperature, precipitation by type, relative humidity, total solar 11 radiation, wind speed, wind direction, snow water equivalent, snow depth 5. Phenology First flowering of sensitive plant species, first amphibian call dates, 5 length of growing season, ice out/in dates for lakes and ponds Geology and Soils Geomorphology 6. Shoreline geomorphology Relative surface elevation, shoreline change 2 Water Hydrology 7. Water quantity Water depth, water duration, lake levels, streamflow, groundwater 11 levels/inputs, spring/seep volume, sea level rise Water Quality 8. Water chemistry Stream water nitrate, stream alkalinity/ANC, water temperature, 11 % dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, pH, turbidity, Secchi disk, color 9. Nutrient enrichment Turbidity, #septic systems in and near park, algal biomass, total 11 and dissolved phosphorus, amount fertilizer used within park, residential density near park

 10. Streams - Diversity of selected communities and subcommunities 9

macroinvertebrates

Biological Integrity Invasive Species 11. Exotic Species- early Presence/absence, extent, distribution 11

detection

Focal Species or 12. Intertidal – vegetation Diversity of salt marsh and rocky intertidal community and 2Communities subcommunities, exotic species extent

13. Wetland – vegetation Diversity of community and subcommunities, exotic species extent, 11

beaver activity

14. Forest - vegetation Community diversity (all layers), tree species, rates of mortality and 9

regeneration, stand structural dynamics, tree basal area by species, 

canopy condition, snag density, coarse woody debris volume; percent 

exotic species

15. High elevation - vegetation Diversity of community and subcommunities; percent exotic species 1

16. Fish – lakes and streams Diversity of community and subcommunities; percent exotic species. 617. Breeding birds Diversity of forest, high elevation, grassland/scrub, old-field, and coastal 10

communities and subcommunities

18. Reptiles and amphibians Diversity of wetland/vernal pool communities and subcommunities (red-backed 10

salamander abundance in forests)

19. White-tailed Deer herbivory Browse intensity in forests 9

Human use Visitor and Recreation 20. Visitor usage Number of visitors by location and activity, trampling impacts, soil erosion 11

Pressure

Ecosystem Pattern Land Cover 21. Land cover / Ecosystem cover Change in area and distribution of ecological systems (including intertidal 11and Processes Land Use communities) within park and adjacent landscape, patch size distribution, 

patch connectivity, patch fragmentation, extent of major disturbance, ecological 

integrity index by ecological system

22. Land use Road network extent, nearby housing development permits, proportion of 10

nearby lands in various categories of human uses, % impervious surface 

in watershed, nearby human population density, landscape buffers
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 619

the historic range of variability expected or permissible 

in the measures. Indeed, if restoration of sites in parks is 

being considered, this kind of information is especially 

critical. Information of this kind can lead to indicator 

thresholds based on “normal’ or “natural” benchmarks 

with clearly identified thresholds, along with developing 

protocols for those measures to ensure consistent field 

measurements and documentation. A subsequent step is 

to then provide a scorecard matrix by which the measures 

are rated and integrated into an overall assessment of the 

ecological integrity of the system(s) in a park or across 

the network.

In order to synthesize and summarize VS in a meaningful fashion that can be communicated to a diverse 

audience, VS and Measures will require ratings for 

levels of overall ecological condition. These ratings can 

be integrated into an overall ecological integrity rank, 

similar to the “element occurrence ranking procedure” 

developed by NatureServe and the Network of Natural 

Heritage Programs (NatureServe 2002, Parrish and others 2003). A series of steps to generate an Ecological 

Integrity Rank will be taken, as shown in figure 2. After 

the VS and measures are prioritized (fig. 2, steps 1 and 

2) and a final list is generated (as in table 3), they can be 

linked to specific ecosystem targets (fig. 2, step 3). In this 

way, measures are tailored to the systems being assessed. 

By compiling information from baseline studies in the 

park, reference sites outside the park, and understanding 

the historic range of variability of VS and measures for 

each system, it may be possible to rate the field values that 

are collected using these protocols during the monitoring 

program (fig. 2, step 4). Ratings range from Very Good 

to Poor, and are a judgment about the expected range of 

values that define better or worse conditions of ecological 

integrity. The intensity of sampling and expectation for 

detecting trends may be derived from our understanding of these sources (fig. 2, step 5). Note that for each 

sample period, the field values are recorded and stored 

independently of the ratings. The roll-up of these ratings 

provides the basis for the overall Ecological Integrity 

Rank (fig. 2, step 6) for specific occurrences (or sites) 

and across the park or network.

An illustration of this process is shown for the rare 

Jack Pine Woodland type at Acadia NP. This community 

is a rare NVC association found within the LaurentianAcadian Acidic Rock Outcrop system. An ecological 

integrity rank is developed by first linking the VS and 

measures from table 3 to this Ecosystem (table 4), as illustrated in figure 2, step 3. Mapped occurrences of this 

jack pine woodland association are visited, and measures 

associated with all applicable vital signs will be collected. 

Field values of each measure will be assigned a rating. 

Ratings can then be “rolled-up” into an overall Ecological 

Figure 2. Illustration of ecological integrity rank methods based 

on vital signs and measures. Steps 1 – 2 show development 

of vital signs and measures, step 3 links a subset of them to 

specific ecosystem targets, step 4 develops rating for each 

measure specific to the ecosystem, and step 5 shows how 

field values for each measure are stored independent of 

the rating for that measure. For example, VS 1 = Forest --

vegetation. Measure a = exotic species percent cover. Forest 

Type 1 = Hemlock-Hardwood Forest. Ratings for measure a 

= Very Good < 1 % cover exotic species; Good= 1-4 % cover; 

Fair = 5-20%; Poor = >20%. Thus, a field value for a stand 

of Hemlock-hardwoods forest with 3% exotic species cover 

generates a rating of Good. In Step 6, combining all ratings 

for measures of a system through a rule-based approach 

generates the Ecological Integrity Rank for the occurrence 

(A=Excellent, B=Good, C=Fair, D=Poor). Ranks across a 

park can be averaged into an overall park rank, or displayed 

as a histogram, with management thresholds established; 

if individual stands fell below this threshold, management 

action would be taken.
620 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. Table 4. Jack Pine Woodland Ecological Integrity Rank table. Table displays the vital signs and measures applicable to assessing the ecological integrity of the Jack Pine woodland. Field Values are collected based on standard protocols. A rating is assigned to the Field Value based on the Rating Scale, which summarizes the range of values expected for a measure. Ratings for only a few measures are shown, for reason of brevity. Field Rating Value, Rating, Scale Fair Category Vital Sign Measure T1 T1 Very Good Good Fair Fair Condition Ecosystem Cover Patch size in acres >50 acres 20-50 acres 5-20 acres 3-5 acre Consumptive Use Degree of anthropogenic 5% Good Minimal; Minor; Significant, Extensive; disturbance (e.g. logging, affecting affecting affecting 10-50% affecting > 50% recreation) < 1% of < 10% of of community, of community, community community severe impacts poor potential for may be evident, recovery, if at all but recovery possible Extreme Natural disturbance regime Not shown Not shown Not shown Not shown Disturbance Events (fire and/or blowdown) Forest—Vegetation Basal area / canopy cover Not shown Not shown Not shown Not shown by species Cover of exotic species 2% Very Good Absent Present, but In abundance Abundant (> 20%) in low (5-20% cover) numbers (1-5%) Land-scape Context Land Cover / Patch size distribution - Not shown Not shown Not shown Not shown Ecosystem Cover Edge to interior ratio Patch connectivity Not shown Not shown Not shown Not shown Patch fragmentation Not shown Not shown Not shown Not shown Land Use Proportion of nearby lands Not shown Not shown Not shown Not shown in various categories of human use (e.g., develop- ment, roads, logging, fire suppression)
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 621

Integrity Rank, using a Scorecard value (A-D), allowing 

the rank to be displayed on the map (for roll-up methods 

see NatureServe 2002). Only two sets of polygons have 

been visited at this time to allow a rank to be assigned (fig. 

3). Future fieldwork will focus on remaining occurrences, 

once the protocols for the measures are in place.

Conclusions

Selection of Vital Signs by NETN during Phase 2 of 

the NPS I&M program was dependant upon conceptual 

ecological models developed during Phase 1 of this 

program. These conceptual models help demonstrate 

linkages among ecological resources, stressors, and 

potential VS across the four major ecological system 

groups (terrestrial, wetland, aquatic, intertidal).

NETN found the sequential peer-review process, from 

core science team to external science partners and internal 

technical committee review, to be useful in developing 

a comprehensive set of VS. This process allowed us to 

test our assumptions, and expand scientific and technical input. The end result is a robust list of VS. Park 

participation in all stages ensured a good link between 

VS selection and management goals.

Our next steps, in Phase 3, are to set objectives, 

develop specific protocols based on bundling of VS measures and standard trend analysis, and develop ecological 

integrity ranks. These steps will be challenging, requiring careful attention to the role of baselines, reference 

conditions, and historic range of variability for measures 

of these dynamic sets of ecosystems. These VS need to 

be integrated into a process of adaptive management, 

whereby trends in VS can be communicated to managers, scientists, conservationists, policy-makers, and the 

public. The development of ecological integrity ranks 

to summarize VS trends should help provide the needed 

link between monitoring and management decision-making aimed at maintaining, enhancing, or restoring the 

ecological integrity of park ecosystems.

References

Andreasen, J .K.; O’Neill, R. V.; Noss, R.; Slosser, N. C.. 

2001. Considerations for the development of a terrestrial index of ecological integrity. Ecological Indicators 1: 

21-35.

Comer, P.; Faber-Langendoen, D.; Evans, R.; Gawler, S.; Josse, 

C.; Kittel, G.; Menard, S.; Pyne, M.; Reid, M.; Schulz, 

K.; Snow, K.; Teague, J.; 2003. Ecological Systems of the 

United States: A Working Classification of U.S. Terrestrial 

Systems. NatureServe, Arlington, VA. 75 pp.

FGDC. 1997. Vegetation classification standard. FGDC-STD005. Vegetation Subcommittee, Federal Geographic Data 

Committee. FGDC Secretariat, U.S. Geological Survey, 

Figure 3. Map of Schoodic Peninsula, Acadia National Park, 

showing the occurences of Jack Pine Woodland, a part 

of the Laurentian-Acadian Acidic Rocky Outcrop system. 

Groups of polygons (in black and in vertical shading) are 

treated as separate occurrences. Each occurrence has 

been assigned an ecological integrity rank, based on the 

ratings for the field values for each measure (see table 4). 

Clusters of polygons that have been circled represent other 

occurrences that have not been field-visited, so they have 

not yet been assigned an overall ecological integrity rank. 

Inset shows the boundaries of Acadia NP, Maine, with the 

Schoodic Peninsula area circled.

Reston, Virginia, USA. [Web resource: http://www.fgdc.

gov/standards].

Harwell, M. A.; Myers, V.; Young, T.; Bartuska, A.; Gassman, 

N.; Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, C. C.; Appelbaum, S.; Barko, J.; 

Causey, B.; Johnson, C.; McLean, A.; Smola, R.; Templet, 

P.; Tosini, S. 1999. A framework for an ecosystem integrity 

report card. BioScience 49 (7): 543-556).

Karr, J. R.; Chu, E. W. 1995. Ecological integrity: Reclaiming 

lost connections. pp. 34-48. In L. Westra and J. Lemons 

(eds). Perspectives on Ecological Integrity. Kluwer 

Academic. Dordrecht, Netherlands.

NatureServe. 2002. Element Occurrence Data Standard. 

NatureServe, Arlington, VA. 147 p. On-line at http://

whiteoak.natureserve.org/eodraft/index.htm.

Parrish, J. D.; Braun, D.P.; Unnasch, R.S.; 2003. Are we conserving what we say we are? Measuring ecological integrity 

within protected areas. BioScience 53: 851-860.

Young, T. F.; Sanzone, S. (editors). 2002. A framework for 

assessing and reporting on ecological condition. Prepared 

by the Ecological Reporting Panel, Ecological Processes 

and Effects Committee. EPA Science Advisory Board. 

Washington, DC. 142 p.
622 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Woodley, S. 1993. Monitoring and measuring ecosystem integrity in Canadian National Parks. Pp 155-176, in S. Woodley, 

J. Kay, and G. Francis (editors). Ecological Integrity and 

Ecosystem Management. St. Lucie Press.

Acknowledgments

We want to especially thank Andy Cutko of the Maine 

Natural Areas Program, who allowed us to use his jack 

pine woodland table and figure. We thank members of 

the Northeast Temperate Network Technical Steering 

Committee who have participated in the review of the 

vital sign selection process, including Sam Droege, 

David Manski, David Hayes, Christopher Eagar, Wayne 

Millington, Tonnie Maniero, Mary Foley, Charles Roman, 

and Beth Johnson. We also thank the many participants 

of the first NETN Vital Signs review meeting at Acadia 

National Park.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 623

Introduction

Sustainable forest management planning considers the 

function of many elements, of a forest ecosystem, but 

also their interrelations. Since it is difficult to evaluate 

the total number of element, decision makers must define 

which are the more important elements. In order to do this 

we must consider an integrated approach that guarantee, 

basically, forest regeneration. In this way, the elements 

that represent, of support, disturbance occurrence have 

a high priority. This hierarchy approach is useful when: 

a) it is difficult to know all the forest elements; b) it is 

difficult to measure the influence among elements; and 

c) there is a limited budget. Disturbance factor, such as 

pest, hurricanes, and fire, could affect forest sustainability in both a very short time period, and in very large 

areas. Among them, fire is more common in most of the 

Mexican forest ecosystem, affecting not only vegetation 

regeneration, but also trees and other biotic and physic 

elements. Therefore, any management planning (focused 

on sustainability) must consider: i) fire occurrence (frequency) and ii) fire intensity. The definition of such aspect 

can be supported with the use of fuel maps. However, 

the definition of the spatial distribution of fuel models 

has represented one of the more complicated challenges 

facing forest fire scientists (Keane and others1999). 

As an alternative, the fuel-model concept (numerical 

characterization of fuels [Rothermel 1972]) has been a 

practical solution for this problem. However, this concept 

consider fuels (quality and quantity) distribution homogeneous within an area qualified into a given fuel model. 

That means that fire behavior variation will be based only 

on changes of wind, fuel moisture, and slope (Omi 1997). 

However, the spatial distribution of forest fuels tends to 

be rather discontinuous and highly variable (Brown and 

Bevins 1986). Since most of the current fire behavior 

simulation models are based on the fuel-model concept, 

the objective of this study is to show an alternative approach in order to develop three dead fuels maps. This 

information will be useful to support sustainable forest 

management under Mexican forest ecosystems.

Methods

Study Area

This study was carried out with information on forests 

of the ejido “El Largo y Anexos”, located in the region 

called Mesa del Huracán, at the NW of Chihuahua State, 

México (fig. 1). The predominant tree species are Pinus 

durangensis, P. arizonica (Engelmann), P. Engelmanni 

(Carriere) and Quercus sideroxyla (Humb. and Bonpl.).

A fuels inventory was carried out in 1998 where a total 

of 554 plots, randomly distributed, were sampled in a 

Sustainable Forest Management Support Based on the 

Spatial Distribution of Fuels for Fire Management

José Germán Flores Garnica, Juan de Dios Benavides Solorio, and David Arturo 

Moreno Gonzalez, Centro de Investigaciones del Pacífico Centro. INIFAP. Parque 

Los Colomos S/N, Col. Providencia. Guadalajara, Jal.isco. México

Abstract—Fire behavior simulation is based mainly on the fuel model-concept. However, 

there are great difficulties to develop the corresponding maps, therefore it is suggested 

the generation of four fuel maps (1-hour, 10-hours, 100-hours and alive). These maps 

will allow a better definition of the spatial variation of forest fuels, even within a zone 

classified as a given fuel model. The used data was acquired under a forest inventory 

of 554 sample plots, within an are of 1,400 ha approximately, in the ejido El Largo y 

Anexos (Chihuahua, México). Twelve different interpolation techniques (five deterministic and seven stochastic) were used to generate continuous surface of each fuel 

class. These surfaces were evaluated and compared. In general, stochastic techniques 

produce the best results, although individually the technique called inverse distance 

weighted showed a more constant performance. It is suggested that there is not a single 

interpolation technique to be used for any variable. The generated information (fuel 

maps) would help to the decision making process for a sustainable management of a 

given area, because it would help implement fire management strategies.
624 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

1400 ha area. Fuels loading (1 hr, 10 hr, 100 hr, shrubs, 

and saplings) were measured based on the techniques 

described by Brown and others (1982). Sample plots 

locations were determined using a global positioning 

system.

Fuel Map Generation

The three fuel loadings maps used in this study were 

generated by Flores (2001). Three are based on fuel 

timelag classes (Deemnig and others 1978), that is, a 

measure of the rate at which a specified size of dead fuel 

gains or loses moisture [i.e., 1-HR, 10-HR, and 100-HR 

fuel classes]. These maps were generated comparing 

five statistical interpolation methods (spline, polygonal 

mapping, inverse distance weighting [power 1 and 2]) 

and five geostatistical options (ordinary kriging [point 

kriging and block kriging], universal kriging [1st and 

2nd degree], and cokriging,) (Flores 2001). Based on 

these techniques were defined the continuous surfaces 

that more accurately represent the spatial distribution 

of four fuel classes (tn/ha). Interpolations were based 

on field data.

The ancillary data required for cokriging were gathered from a Digital Elevation Model, a Landsat 5 TM 

and a forest inventory. The four fuel classes showed 

significant autocorrelation and cross-correlation, thus 

it was possible to model the spatial continuity of each 

of the four fuel types. The average spatial dissimilarity 

between data points defined a structural distribution 

(variogram), which allowed characterization of spatial continuity patterns (Flores 2001) and definition 

of weighting factors for both kriging and cokriging 

(Hunner and others 2000).

Results

Fuels Statistics

Fuel loadings (tn/ha) were related to the forest stand 

conditions where the evaluations were made. General 

statistics for the four fuel types are shown in table 1. The 

fuel class loadings were combined with the secondary 

variables selected from a stepwise process.

Fuels Interpolation

Using elevation (ELE) as secondary variable, and 

modeling such relation with an exponential cross-variogram, resulted in the lowest MSE for 1-HR, and 100-HR. 

However, other combinations resulted in similar results. 

In the case of 1-HR principal component 3 (PC3) (exponential cross-variogram) was the secondary variable 

that result in the lowest MSE. Table 2 summarizes the 

performance of all the 10 interpolation techniques used 

to estimate each fuel class loading. The evaluation of this 

performance was based on four measures: Mean square 

error (MSE). MSE ranges from 0.162 to 0.929, 2.157 to 

4.385, and 39.84 to 183.37, for 1-HR, 10-HR, and 100-

HR, respectively. These ranges represent a considerable 

difference among the interpolation techniques. In the 

cases of 1-HR and 100-HR fuels, the lower MSE was 

obtained through cokriging (CK) procedure based on 

elevation (ELE) as a secondary variable. This suggests 

an increase in precision when modeling the joint spatial 

continuity of fuel classes and ELE. By contrast, CK was 

the worst technique in the estimation of 10-HR fuels. 

In this case the lowest MSE was obtained through the 

inverse distance weighting (Power 1).

Fuels Continuous Surface

Based on the best interpolation techniques, the corresponding continuous surfaces were generated for each 

forest fuels (fig. 2). The spatial distribution of 1-HR fuels 

shows that higher loads are located at the west portion of 

the study area. The lower loads of this fuels occurred at 

the east, which could be explained because the minor tree 

Table 1. General statistics of the four fuel classes for the study 

area (Cd. Madera, Chihuahua. México).

Statistic 1-hour 10-hours 100-hours

Minimum 0.08 0.00 0.00

1st Quantile 5.26 0.66 0.00

Mean 11.32 2.08 10.09

Median 10.34 1.31 7.22

3rd Quantile 16.30 2.63 14.45

Maximum 35.45 13.79 101.14

Std. Deviation 7.41 2.19 14.33

Figure 1. Approximate study area location, close to Cd. Madera 

(Chihuahua, México).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 625

density. On the other had, 10-HR fuels showed a more variable distribution, however higher loads are located at the 

east. Lower loads occurred at both central and east portions 

of the study area. In the case of 100-HR, fuels distribution 

is less heterogeneous and there is a clear tendency of low 

loads at the east portion. Higher load values are located at 

the central part of the studied area. In general, we could say 

that the reason of the low loads at the east part are because 

this portion is close to the Cd. Madera town. Since people 

from this town get firewood from the forest, it sounds logic 

that they take it from the closest areas. Therefore, any management planning should consider two kind of priorities: a) 

defining those areas with high risk of fire, which are related 

to their proximity to urban areas (Flores 2004); and b) 

considering the potential fire effects, based on fuel loadings. This means that forest managers not only should 

avoid fire occurrence (mainly in the areas close to the 

town), but also to implement silvicultural practice to decrease fuel loading (for example prescribed fires [Flores 

and Benavides 1993]).

Discusion and Conlcusions

Geostatistical interpolation techniques showed a better 

performance that the traditional interpolation techniques 

tested (table 2) for the four fuel classes (1-HR, 10-HR, and 

100HR fuels), in general. Similar response is reported in 

other studies (Hohn 1998; cited by Hunner 2000). The 

results suggested no increases in the precision of our 

Figure 2. Thematic maps of three dead fuels spatial distribution for the study area located 

close to Cd. MaderaChihuahua, México (after Flores, 2001).

Table 2. Performance of the interpolation techniques evaluated by four measures, for each fuel class, for the study area (Cd. Madera, 

Chihuahua. México).

Statistical Geostatistical

 polyg. idw idw uk 1st uk 2nd cokriging point block

Fuel class criteria spline mapping thiessen power 1 power 2 degree degree (ele) kriging kriging

1-HR MSE 60.846 33.469 58.058 31.364 32.019 32.822 40.010 9.944 30.759 30.683

10-HR MSE 4.022 3.048 3.780 2.157 2.259 2.353 2.360 4.385 3.224 3.215

100-HR MSE 183.37 109.93 168.28 93.536 96.538 94.398 94.933 39.844 95.231 95.016

1-HR= 1 hour fuel (0-0.6 cm diameter) MSE= mean square error

10-HR= 10 hours fuel (0.6-2.5 m diameter)

100-HR= 100 hours fuel (2.5-7.5 cm diameter)
626 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

estimations when modeling spatial continuity (kriging) for 

1-HR and 10-HR fuels. Thus, in these cases at least, one 

traditional technique was better than the simple kriging 

possibilities. However, the spatial continuity for 100-HR 

fuels was enough to increase the precision of estimate.

The spatial resolution of the resulted forest fuels maps 

was implemented at a “point level,” in which fuel loadings 

are estimated at any point in the area of interest. This was 

implemented under the raster GIS perspective, with the 

limitation of the raster resolution (in this case 30 x 30 m). 

This means that using the strategies illustrated in this paper 

it is possible to define fuel maps at different scales (Yuan 

1994). Furthermore, the spatial variation of fire behavior 

at small scales (heterogeneous conditions) requires levels 

of resolution that only can be managed under the cell automata (raster) approach (Liu and Chou 1997). Using the 

vector approach, such as in the fuel-model concept (Finney 

1998), fuels distribution is assumed homogeneous within 

the entire fuel model area. This approach could be useful: 

(a) at large-scale levels, but with homogeneous landscapes 

or (b) at small-scale levels with a fine differentiation and 

classification of fuel models (Campbell and others 1996). 

However, the latter has been the major problem of the fuel 

mapping process (Keane and others 1999).

Since the study area is affected frequently by wildfire, 

it makes sense that any attempt of a sustainable management considers both fire occurrence and fire effects. This 

information has its higher usefulness when it is considered under a spatial approach. It is not enough to know 

that we have different fuel loadings along our managed 

areas, but it is essential it define their spatial variability. 

The definition of continuous surfaces is a great alternative to understand better the gradual changes of forest 

fuels. Based on this it will be possible to prioritize which 

areas have more risk of fire (related mainly in 1-HR 

distribution), and which areas could produce higher 

negative effect of the forest ecosystem elements (tree, 

grasses, soil, water, etc.). The latter is focused mainly 

on the potential of fire intensity fire, which is related to 

large dimensions fuels (Albini 1976). Nevertheless, in 

Mexico this kind of spatial information is not considered, 

and most of the forest management plans mention the 

implementation some practical activities as the solution 

to the fire problem. However, there is not a clear support not only on the implementation of such practices, 

but in their location and dimension. The methodology 

illustrated in this paper, could be used to: i) prioritize 

areas; ii) give dimension to the problem (calculating a 

given area; and iii) calculate time and cost requirements. 

Finally, decision makers should consider other ancillary 

data, such as climate, roads, altitude, wind, vegetation, 

and human activities. Thinking on fire as a factor that can 

alter considerably any sustainable management plan, it is 

important to spend some time and resources to develop 

the type of maps showed in this paper.

Literature Cited

Albini, F.A 1976. Estimating wildfire behavior and effects. 

USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-30.

Brown, J.K. y Bevins, C.D. 1986. Surface fuel loadings and 

predicted fire behavior for vegetation types in the northern 

Rocky Mountains. USDA Forest Service, Intermountain 

Research Station. Res. Note INT-358.

Brown, J.K.; Oberheu, R.D.; Johnston, C.M. 1982. Handbook 

for inventorying surface fuels and biomass in the Interior 

West. USDA Forest Service. Intermountain Forest and 

Range Experiment Station. General Technical Report 

INT-129.

Campbell, J.; Green, K.; Weinstein, D.; Finney, M. 1996. A. 

Fire growth modeling in an integrated GIS environment. 

In: SOFOR GIS “96. Southern Forestry Geopgraphic 

Information Systems Conference. pp 133-142.

Deeming, J.E.; Burgan, R.E.; Cohen, J.D. 1977. The National 

Fire Danger Rating System-1978. USDA, Forest Service. 

Gen Tech. Rep. INT-39. 66 p.

Finney, M. A. 1998. FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator-Model 

development and evaluation. USDA, Forest Service. 

Research Paper RMRS-GTR-4. 47 p.

Flores G., J. G. 2001. Modeling the spatial variability of forest 

fuel arrays. Ph.D. Dissertation. Dept. of Forest Sciences. 

Colorado State University. 201 p.

Flores G., J.G. y Benavides S., J.D. 1993. Quemas controladas 

y su efecto en los nutrimentos de suelo en un rodal de pino. 

Amatl (6): 24-25.

Flores G., J. G.; Moreno G., D. A.; Rincón R., F. 2004. 

Reconstrucción de escenarios forestales a través de 

geostadística como soporte para la valoración de áreas 

incendiadas. In the Proceedings of 2nd Symposyum on Fire 

Economic, Planning and Policy. Córdoba, España. USAD 

Forest Service.

Hunner, G.; Mowrer, H.T.; Reich, R.M. 2000. An accuracy 

comparison of six spatial interpolation methods for modeling forest stand structure of the Fraser Experimental 

Forest, Colorado. In: Proceedings of the 4th International 

Symposium on Spatial Accuracy Assessment in Natural 

Resources and Environmental Sciences. July. 2000. 

Amsterdan. pp 305-312.

Keane, R.E.; Burgan, R.; van Wagtendok. 1999. Mapping 

wildland fuels for fire management across multiple scales: 

Integrating remote sensing, GIS, and biophysical modeling. 

USDA For. Ser. RMRS. Fire Sciences Laboratory, Fire 

Modeling Institute.

Liu, P.S. y Chou, Y.H. 1997. A grid automation of wildfire 

growth simulation. In: Proceedings of the 1997 ESRI User 

Conference. San Diego, California. http://www.esri.com/library/userconf/proc97/proc97/to200/pap158/p158.htm.

Omi, P.N. 1997. Forest fire management. F424 course. 

University Text. Colorado State University. 117 pp.

Rothermel, R C. 1972. A mathematical model for predicting 

fire spread in wildland fuels. USDA For. Serv. Research 

Paper INT-115.

Yuan, M. 1994. Acquiring experts ́ knowledge to build wildfire 

representation in GISs. In: Proceedings of ESRI User 

Conference’94.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 627

Introduction

Forest sustainability is based in adequate forest management strategies. The implementation of silvicultural 

practices in a forest management has to guaranty forest 

sustainability, which is supported by an adequate tree 

regeneration (Moreno and others 1993). Therefore, quality and intensity of silviculture is based on an accurate 

knowledge of the current spatial distribution of regeneration. At the same time, this regeneration is determined by 

the spatial distribution of many disturbing factors, such 

as fuel loadings (Flores y Benavides, 1993), trees density, 

and grazing. As a consequence, forest sustainability is 

affected, costs are increased, and new management program must be developed (or at least adjusted). Therefore, 

before to implement a silvicultural program, we must 

develop methodologies that allows to know the spatial 

distribution. In this way, we will be capable to define 

which areas have a higher priority (for example, with 

low regeneration density), and establish a spatially better 

silvicultural planification. However, regeneration mapping is not considered very often because its evaluation 

is both time and cost consuming. Therefore, as a practical alternative, this study shows the results of a spatial 

evaluation of trees regeneration, where spatial distribution of regeneration is modeled. This modeling is based 

on the evaluating and comparing two interpolation 

techniques: inverse distance weighted and ordinary 

kiging. These techniques has been used successfully in 

other fields, such as mining, meteorology, and soil science (Laslett and others 1987; Webster y Oliver, 1989). 

However, their use has been limited in forestry (Hunner, 

2000).

Methods

Study Area

The study area was a watershed located at 5 km to the 

west of Tapalpa town (Jalisco state), in the west-central 

region of Mexico (fig. 1), and it is located within the 

19o 56’ and 19o 58’ North latitude; 103o 47’ and 103o 51 

West longitude (Benavides, 1987). This watershed has 

the following general characteristics: Altitude: 2060-

2420 m.a.s.l. Mean annual rainfall: 901 mm. Mean 

temperature: 16.6oC (Minimum mean annual 9.1oC, 

Maximum mean annual 24.3oC). This region corresponds 

to a temperate sub-humid climate (Benavides, 1987), 

Geostatistical Evaluation of Natural Tree Regeneration of a 

Disturbed Forest

José Germán Flores Garnica, David Arturo Moreno Gonzalez, 

Juan de Dios Benavides Solorio Centro de Investigaciones del Pacífico Centro. 

INIFAP. Parque Los Colomos S/N, Col. Providencia. Guadalajara, Jal.isco. México

Abstract—The implementation of silvicultural strategies in a forest management has to 

guaranty forest sustainability, which is supported by an adequate regeneration. Therefore, 

quality and intensity of silvicultural practices is based on an accurate knowledge of 

the current spatial distribution of regeneration. At the same time, this regeneration is 

determined by the spatial distribution of many disturbing factors, such as fuel loadings, 

trees density, and grazing. However, regeneration mapping is not considered very often because its evaluation is both time and cost consuming. As a practical alternative, 

this study shows the results of a spatial evaluation of trees regeneration, where spatial 

distribution of regeneration is modeled. The data was obtained from 79 sample plots 

systematically distributed in a watershed of 1000 ha., at the saw of Tapalpa, Jalisco 

(México). Two interpolation alternatives were tested and compared: a) Inverse Distance 

Weighting [IDW]; and b) Ordinary Kriging (simple stochastic interpolation). Individuals 

between 0.30 and 2.5 m of height represented tree natural regeneration. The results 

showed that geostatistics technique (OK) was better in 50 percent of the cases, and 

deterministic technique (IDW) was better for the rest 50 percent. This suggest that not 

single interpolation technique has to be used in all situations. The results would support 

silvicultural strategies. It is suggested in further studies to use ancillary data, such as tree 

density, fuels, slope, and species distribution.
628 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

and is dominated by Pinus devoniana, Pinus oocarpa, 

Quercus rugosa; Quercus resinosa and Alnus. The study 

area is mostly on north-facing slopes, at an altitude of 

2110 m.a.s.l. In average, the slope varied between 5 and 

65 percent.

Data Collection

The information used in this study was collected 

based on a specific forest inventory. Since we did not 

know well the study area, we used a systematic sample 

design. Sample plots were located every 500 m, within 

an area of around 1400 ha. Saplings were evaluated in a 

total of 79 100-m2 circular sample plots, during a period 

of 30 days (between May and June, 2003). Plot center 

locations were determined using a global positioning 

system (GPS) receiver.

Data Analysis

The analysis of information was divided into two phases: I) Defining of fuel thematic maps: and II) Location 

of areas according to their potential fire effect. For the 

former, two spatial interpolation analyses were tested to 

get five thematic maps: (a) 1-HR fuels; (b) 10-HR fuels; 

(c) Downed woody; (d) Fine fuels weight; and (e) Fine 

fuels depth. The used techniques were:

Inverse distance weighting (power 2). This technique assumes that the value of an un-sampled point is 

a distance-weighted average of the values of observed 

points occurring nearby (Burrough and McDonnell, 

1998). This interpolation technique gives more weight 

to closer observations than those that are farther away 

(Hunner, 2000). Such weights are inversely proportional 

to the distance between the point to be predicted and the 

data of nearby points computed, and are computed from 

a linear function (Burrough and McDonnell, 

1998; Isaak and Srivastava, 1989):

β

$ * x( ) 0 =

1

di

p *β x( )i

i=1

n

∑

1

di

p

i=1

n

∑

where: β

$ *(x0) = estimated value at un-sampled 

location x0; β

$(xi) = observed value at location 

xi; di = are the distances from each observed 

locations to the un-sampled point; p = distance 

exponent; n = number of sampled points.

Ordinary kriging, OK, is considered as 

the “best linear unbiased estimator” (Hunner, 

2000; Isaaks and Srivastava, 1989): (a) 

Linear, because its estimates are weighted linear combinations of the available data; (b) Unbiased, because 

it tends to generate a mean square error equal to zero 

(E[Estimated(x0)-True(x0)] = 0, and Eλi = 0); and (c) 

Best, because it aims at minimizing the variance of the 

errors (E{[Estimated(x0) – True(x0)]2 = minimum). The 

following formulas are used to calculate the OK estimates 

(Hunner, 2000; Isaaks and Srivastava, 1989):

ρˆOK x( ) 0 = λi ⋅

i=1

n

∑ ρ x( )i

where: ρˆOK x( ) 0 = ordinary kriging estimate at location 

x0; λi= the weight for sample point i at location xi; ρ

(xi)= the value of the observed variable ρ at location 

xi. All the geostatistical estimations were defined under 

the assumption of an isotropic behavior of the data (omnidirectional approach).

Validation

To evaluate and select the interpolation techniques, 

cross-validation was applied(Goovaerts, 1997). This 

technique supported the calculation of prediction errors 

(differences between estimated and observed values 

[Hunner, 2000]), which were used to define the corresponding mean square error (MSE). The lower MSE was 

the criterion to select the best interpolation techniques 

(Flores, 2001). Mean square error (MSE) is a summary 

statistics that incorporates both the bias and the spread 

of the error distribution (MSE= variance + bias2), which 

is calculated as (Isaaks and Srivastava, 1989):

MSE = 1

n

r 2

i=1

n

∑

where: n= the number of sample points; and r= the 

residuals

Cross-validation was also applied to find the optimal 

number of nearest neighbors to include in the kriging 

processes.

Figure 1. Approximate location of the Tapalpa Saw (Jalisco 

state, México), where the “El Carrizal” watershed is 

located.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 629

Results and Discussion

Based on tree density and tree distribution, it was 

expected a high regeneration (individuals lower than 30 

cm and saplings [up to 2.5 m]) density. However, there 

was very little regeneration lower than 30 cm, mostly at 

the north of the watershed. This distribution agrees with 

the distribution of higher dimensions (both diameter and 

height). In this portion we found also the higher densities of pine trees. Due to the low number of individuals 

lower tan 30 cm, we work with individuals between 0.65 

and 2.5. m of height. I this way we define the following 

classes: (a) Saplings of main dominant species with < 60 

cm of height (B-1A); (b) Saplings of main dominant species with 0.6–2.5 m of height (B-1B); (c) All the saplings 

of main dominant species (B1); (d) All the saplings of 

main co-dominant species (B2); (e) All the saplings of 

secondary co-dominant species (B3); and (f) All the saplings individuals (BT). The tree species of saplings were: 

Pinus devoniana, P. oocarpa, P. leiophylla, P. lumholtzii, 

P. douglasiana, Quercus rugosa; Quercus resinosa y 

Alnus arbuta. There were no dead saplings.

Following the kriging processes, the corresponding 

variograms for each class were defined. The resulting 

graphic is shown in figure 2, where in general a low 

spatial autocorrelation is observed: This condition is 

remarked in class B3, where the population variance 

is constant regardless the lag distance between sample 

plots. The models that better fit experimental variograms 

(semivariances distribution) corresponded to classes B1A y B-1B, which showed a “Nugget effect” (Isaaks y 

Srivastava, 1989) relatively lower. In general, the maximum lag distance, where it is possible to appreciate a 

spatial autocorrelation, was 1,300 m. Most variograms 

fitted to spherical models, while classes B2 and B3 fitted 

better to an exponential and a lineal models.

In general, we can say that there was not a considerable difference of MSE values when comparing OK and 

IDW. However, it was OK was better in 50 percent of 

the classes, in IDW was the better option (table 1). These 

Figure 2. Variograms of spatial autocorrelation of saplings classes. Straight line shows the fitted model, the dot 

line shows the level of population variance.
630 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

results suggest that not always geostatistics alternatives 

are better. Nevertheless, variograms definition is a good 

tool to explore when could be possible to use OK (or 

other geostatistics technique). For example, in the three 

cases where OK was better the corresponding variograms 

defining better the spatial autocorrelation of sapling 

classes. The nugget effect was a lower, and the slope of 

the fitted model is higher than in the cases where IDW 

was better. This differences are more evident in the variogram of class B-1A, which resulted also in the higher 

MSE difference between OK and IDW (table 1). On the 

other hand, class B2 generated a variogram with a high 

nugget effect, and a very low slope. This defined a poor 

spatial autocorrelation of such class, which resulted in a 

better performance of IDW. There are two possible reason 

of such differences: i) a low number of sample plot with 

saplings in the corresponding class; and ii) geostatistics 

techniques are highly influenced in both the spatial autocorrelation the variable of interest, and the clustering of 

sample plots (Hunner, 2000). However, since the sample 

design was systematic, the latter condition could have a 

very low influence in the kriging process.

Figure 3 shows the continuous surface for each of 

the sapling classes generated from the best interpolation class. It is clear the graphical differences between 

Figure 3. Continuous surfaces, generated by ordinary kriging (OK) and inverse distance weighted (IDW), representing 

the spatial variation of sapling classes.

Table 1. Mean square error resulted from the process of crossvalidation of inverse distance weighted (IDW) and ordinary 

kriging interpolation techniques.

Sapling class Idw Kriging

B1A 135,005.81 125,967.41

B1B 8,858.21 8,869.73

B1 306,262.63 303,842.08

B2 20,676.40 21,259.80

B3 13,667.00 14,100.57

BT 729,924.72 715,040.54
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 631

continuous surfaces generated by OK and those generated by IDW. As it was mentioned, this difference could 

be the result of a low number of sample plots with saplings (mainly in the cases of classes B-1B, B2, and B3). 

This condition is better represented with the continuous 

surfaces generated by IDW, where it is easy it appreciate the locations of sample plots with a considerable 

higher number of saplings (relatively with the surrounded 

plots). When the number of sample plots with sapling 

was higher, such in the case of B-1A, B1, and BA, OK 

generate a smoother surface.

In general, natural regeneration is higher at the north 

of the watershed, which is logic if we consider that in that 

portion we found the better tree populations (specifically 

pine species). This spatial behavior was well defined for 

those dominant species (B-1A class). On the other hand, 

the spatial behavior of co-dominant species was better 

represented with the continuous surfaces generated by 

IDW. Considering all the sampled saplings (class BA) 

the resulting continuous surfaces is smoother. Which 

represent a decrease of sapling number going from north 

to south of the watershed.

Conclusions

To look for the best, or at least the more ad equated, 

spatial interpolation technique is a iterative process. In 

this study none of the used techniques generated the best 

results in all the cases, which agree with the results of 

other studies (Asli y Marcotte, 1995; Phillips and others 

1997). However, it was important to consider the spatial 

autocorrelation of the studied classes, because it let us to 

define when OK could be better than IDW. The graphical 

representation of such autocorrelation, through the corresponding variograms, was a important factor in order 

to define strong autocorrelation. When OK was used, a 

spherical model fitted better to the corresponding experimental variograms (generating the lower MSE values). 

This implies a clear influence the “nugget” effect, with a 

gradual proximity to the corresponding “sill” and to the 

variogram range (Burrough y McDonnell, 1998).

The fact that IDW was better in 50 percent of the cases 

could be attributed to the following conditions: a) When 

data is abundant, most interpolation techniques produce 

similar results (Flores, 2001). In this study, because we 

have low spatial variability, it is considered that data 

were abundant (79 sample plots within 1400 ha). b) 2) 

Geostatistics techniques consider the data clustering. 

Since the used sampling design was systematic, this 

factor could have a low influence (Stein, 1999); and c) 

Geostatistic techniques assume that variable to interpolate show a normal distribution (Armostrong, 1998; 

Weber y Engud, 1994). Although this condition was true 

in most cases, it was not strong.

The continuous surface resulted in this study will 

support the generation of thematic maps of regeneration. These maps could be used to establish better spatial 

strategies to implement silvicultural activities. However, 

regeneration information has to be related to the spatial 

distribution of other factors, mainly slope, tree age, tree 

density, tree species composition. Nevertheless, regeneration maps will help to establish those areas with higher 

priority. Also we could define where we can establish 

multiple production systems, such as forestry and cattle, 

or forestry and eco-tourism. The main goal will be to take 

care of those areas where natural regeneration is located. 

On the other hand, based on the regeneration maps, we 

could define the location and the size of those areas that 

require artificial regeneration.

Finally, it is suggested to test other interpolation 

alternatives, mainly those that consider ancillary data. 

We could have better results if we relate tree regeneration with other factor of the forest environment, such as 

tree density, tree age, tree diameter, slope, aspect, and 

altitude.

References

Armstrong, M. 1998. Basic linear geostatistics. Springer, New 

York. 153 pp.

Asli, M. and Marcotte, D. 1995. Comparison of approaches 

to spatial estimation in a Bivariate context. Mathematical 

Geology, 27(5): 641-658.

Benavides S., J.D. 1987. Estimación de la calidad de sitio mediante indices de sitio del Pinus michoacana cornuta Martínez 

y Pinus oocarpa Schiede, para el A.D. F. Tapalpa, Estado 

de Jalisco. Tesis de Licenciatura. División de Ciencias 

Forestales. U.A. Chapingo. Chapingo, México. 80 pp.

Burrough, P. A. and McDonnell, R. 1998. Principles of 

geographical information systems. Oxford University 

Press. 333 p.

Flores G., J.G. 2001. Modeling the spatial variability of forest 

fuel arrays. Ph.D. Dissertation. Dept. For.Sc. Colorado State 

University. 184 p.

Flores G., J.G. and Benavides S., J.D. 1993. Quemas controladas y su efecto en los nutrimentos del suelo en un rodal de 

pino. Amatl 24-25, 6(1-2). Boletin de Difusion del Instituto 

de Madera, Celulosa y Papel. U. de Guadalajara.

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483 p.

Hunner, G. 2000. Modeling forest stand structure using geostatistics, geographic information systems, and remote sensing. 

Ph.D. Dissertation. Colorado State University. 217 p.

Isaaks, E. H. and Srivastava, R. M. 1989. An introduction to 

applied geostatistics. Oxford University Press. 561 p.

Laslett, G. M.; McBratney, A. B.; Pahl, P. J.; Hutchinson, M. 

F. 1987. Comparison of several spatial prediction methods 

for soil pH. Journal of Soil Science, 38:325-341.
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Método “tocón a tocón” para cortas de aclareo y regeneración. Folleto Técnico No. 2. Campo Forestal Colomos. 

CIRPAC. INIFAP. SARH. 16 p.

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Tingey, D.T. 1997. Use of auxiliary data for spatial 

interpolation of ozone exposure in southeastern forests. 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 633

Introduction

Since mid 1960’s Australia has experienced 20 to 

25 major bushfire events. According to the Center for 

International Economics (CIE) (2001), this equates to 

one major bushfire event in approximately every one 

and half years. In addition to these large-scale major 

bushfires, every year many small-scale bushfire incidents 

occur across Australia, which cause damage to property 

and in some instances the loss of human life. CIE (2001) 

analysis based on State agency statistics indicated that 

average annual area burnt due to bushfires nationally in 

Australia (excluding Northern Territory) is around 440 

000 hectares. (In Northern Australia, large areas burnt 

due to large-scale grass fires can distort the overall areas 

burnt and hence fire damages per area burnt.) In the state 

of Victoria, it is estimated that the average annual area 

burnt due to bushfires is around 110 000 hectares (CIE 

2001). This means that 25 percent of the area burnt in 

Australia (excluding Northern Territory) due to bushfires 

generally takes place in Victoria.

Under the Meteorology Act 1955 among the functions 

of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (Bureau) is “the 

issue of warnings of gales, storms and other weather 

conditions likely to endanger life or property, including 

weather conditions likely to give rise to floods or bush 

fires.” These functions are to be carried out in the public 

interest generally and in particular for the purpose of 

assisting persons and authorities engaged in primary 

production, industry, trade, and commerce”.

The provision of fire weather services to the fire agencies and the community is mainly through the Bureau’s 

distributed service delivery structure. The Bureau operates a Regional Office in the capital city of each State 

and Territory in Australia, except in the case of the 

ACT, where a smaller satellite office is operated under 

the guidance of the NSW Regional Office in Sydney. 

Within the structure of each Regional Office, there is a 

Regional Forecasting Centre (RFC), which carries overall 

responsibility for forecast production and dissemination. 

Day to day operational output from each Region is the 

responsibility of the Senior Meteorologist who works 

Economic Impact of Fire Weather Forecasts

Don Gunasekera, Graham Mills, and Mark Williams, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, 

Melbourne, Australia

Abstract—Southeastern Australia, where the State of Victoria is located is regarded as one 

of the most fire prone areas in the world. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology provides 

fire weather services in Victoria as part of a national framework for the provision of such 

services. These services range from fire weather warnings to special forecasts for hazard 

reduction burns. Fire weather services are important inputs into the decision-making 

processes of fire management authorities that enable effective decision-making at various stages of fire management. The key beneficiaries of these services are the general 

community through better information provided to fire management authorities. This 

paper discusses the fire weather service that is provided by the Bureau of Meteorology 

and makes an attempt to measure the economic impact of such services for bushfires 

in Victoria focusing on both costs and benefits. The overall costs will relate to the direct 

and indirect cost of supplying the fire weather services, the cost of the fire mitigation 

and management efforts implemented as a consequence of these fire weather services 

and the cost of fire fighting and relief/recovery initiatives. The benefits will relate to 

minimization or avoidance of damage to timber assets, private property and public infrastructure, of agricultural production losses, of disruption to other economic activities, 

of human injury and fatalities; of damage to recreational sites and public amenities, of 

adverse ecological and environmental impacts, and of adverse effect on public health 

and general visibility due to smoke dispersion. Some of these benefits will have market 

values and the others non-market values. The benefit-cost comparisons can provide 

useful information for improvement of existing fire weather programs and also assist in 

making decisions on future investments in specific activities.
634 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

under the general direction of a senior line manager. 

Each Regional Office is operated under the guidance and 

direction of the Regional Director.

Fire Weather Services

The Bureau provides two broad categories of fire 

weather services. The first category is the services provided to the general public. These services include:

Routine forecasts of fire danger during the fire season 

by way of public weather forecasts.

Public fire weather warnings when the fire danger is 

expected to exceed a certain critical level.

The second category is the services provided to fire 

management authorities, civil defense organizations, 

police and other emergency services. These services 

include:

Detailed routine forecasts during the fire season.

Warnings when the fire danger is expected to exceed 

a certain critical level.

Operational forecasts to assist in combating ongoing 

fires.

Special forecasts for prescribed burns.

Advice regarding the installation and operation of 

special meteorological stations operated by fire authorities.

Consultative advice and climatological information 

to assist with assessment of risk, development of fire 

prevention strategy and other aspects of fire management.

In addition to the routine services provided each day 

during the fire season (November to May), the Bureau 

provides the following services when extreme fire danger is expected and/or when fires are burning. These 

include:

Fire weather warnings issued on a District basis when 

the fire danger is expected to reach extreme. These 

are issued publicly and are used by the Country Fire 

Authority (CFA) as a key input into decisions about 

the declaration of a total fire ban.

Wind change charts. These are issued to the fire agencies on days of significant fire risk when a wind change 

is expected to affect the State. These charts show 

the current and expected future position of the wind 

change and are used by fire agencies when developing 

operational fire management strategies and tactics.

Spot fire forecasts. These are highly detailed fire 

weather forecasts that are issued for specific locations in which a fire is burning or where a controlled 

burn is planned. They include information on the expected wind, temperature, relative humidity and other 

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meteorological factors such as the timing of any wind 

changes. They are provided to the Incident Controller 

of the fire agency that is dealing with the specific fire 

and are also sent to the central fire control centres of 

both the CFA and the Department of Sustainability 

and Environment (DSE), in the case of Victoria. The 

spot fire forecast is broken up into three sections: the 

first section contains the general weather scenario and 

weather conditions for a specific location at +3 hours, 

+6 hours, +9 hours, +12 hours, and +24 hours. The 

second section contains a possible alternative weather 

scenario, to allow the fire agencies to undertake 

contingency planning. The third section is utilized 

by fire agency staff for the provision to the Bureau 

of observations of actual fire site weather conditions 

– this is valuable information that greatly assists the 

forecasters in making accurate predictions.

On request, the Bureau can provide a forecaster at 

CFA Headquarters on critical days and, for large on 

going fires, a forecaster may be “outposted” to a fire 

incident control centre.

Regular consultation is maintained between Bureau 

forecasters and the fire agencies. Bureau staff provides 

detailed briefing to fire chiefs, senior operational personnel and participate in operational briefings, both 

in person and by teleconference.

Direct Cost of Fire Weather 

Services

The provision of the meteorological information including fire weather forecasts is based on three essential 

processes: first, observing and monitoring the current 

state of the atmosphere and ocean; second, understanding 

the physical mechanisms of weather and climate forming 

processes in order to formulate numerical models of the 

atmosphere and ocean; and third, feeding the observed 

‘initial’ data into these models, in real time, to predict 

the future evolution of the atmosphere as a basis for 

providing a wide range of forecast, warning and advisory 

services (Zillman 2002). Generally speaking, in many 

countries including Australia, these three processes are 

funded by the national governments. In other words, the 

basic meteorological infrastructure, data collection and 

basic research are taxpayer funded. Furthermore, their 

overall costs spread across a wide range of forecasts, 

warnings, and advisory services, given the economies 

of scale, scope and size of meteorological service provision. In this paper these costs are not considered and are 

assumed to be sunk costs for the provision of routine fire 

weather services by the Bureau.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 635

The key focus here is on the direct costs of the additional fire weather services made available to fire and 

emergency authorities above and beyond what is available to the general public by the Victorian Regional 

Office of the Bureau. The following is an annual average 

estimate of these various direct costs that are incurred by 

the Victorian Regional Office. These estimates are based 

on standard accounting procedures and charging rules 

adopted by the Bureau. These estimated direct costs add 

up to around $0.40 m per year.

Three fire weather forecasters provide operational 

support to the fire agencies on a daily basis during the 

fire season (November to May) ($ 0.2 m).

One to two forecasters are outposted as onsite weather 

forecasters during major bush fires in specified locations or two forecasters are outposted as on site 

weather forecasters during major bush fires in specified locations (on average this would happen about 2 

weeks per year although there is variation from year 

to year). Training is a significant component, probably 

about 4 weeks per year for one person ($ 0.009 m).

Cost of providing computing and administrative support ($0.007 m).

Cost of telecommunication services. This covers the 

cost of receiving extra observations from Automatic 

Weather Stations (AWSs) at high frequency during 

the fire season, and in particular during high risk fire 

weather days ($0.008 m).

Cost of research support into smoke plume modeling 

($ 0.05 m).

Other related costs including balloons ($0.001m).

Cost of operating additional AWSs and other equipment (including depreciation costs). The CFA has in 

the past operated its own AWS network of 8 across 

the State of Victoria ($0.064m).

Cost of operating eight portable AWSs on behalf of the 

CFA and three AWSs on behalf of the DSE (including 

depreciation costs) ($0.031m).

The Bureau is currently using additional resources 

allocated as part of the extra funding from the newly 

established Cooperative Research Center (CRC) for 

Bushfires to finance the efforts to improve the fire weather 

services in Australia. Those additional funds amount to 

around $0.4 million per year for 7 years, which commenced in 2003-04 (that is, $2.8 million over 7 years). 

These additional funds are treated as the additional cost 

of improving the accuracy, timeliness and the nature 

of the enhanced fire weather services provided by the 

Bureau. It is expected that these improvements will enable the Victorian Regional Office to enhance the fire 

weather services that it currently provides to the fire 

management authorities, civil defense organizations, 

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police and other emergency services, and hence to the 

general community.

Benefits for the Users

Assessing the benefits of fire weather information to 

the users is not an easy task. It is not appropriate to start 

from a situation where no fire weather information is 

available (see Sol 1994) because there is routine information on fire weather available to the general public in 

an ongoing basis. Hence, the purpose here is to focus on 

the benefits of additional information made available to 

fire and emergency authorities over and above what is 

available to the general public.

The benefits to the users of fire weather information 

can be assessed in the form of reduced losses from better 

use of fire weather services provided by the Victorian 

Regional Office of the Bureau. The potential benefits or 

reduced losses could be wide ranging depending on the 

location and circumstances of the specific bushfires cases. 

The potential benefits of reduced impact of bushfires can 

be viewed from the perspective of economic/commercial, 

social and environmental outcomes. The economic and/

or commercial outcomes may involve reduced damage 

to timber assets, property and infrastructure, buildings, 

fences and vehicles, farm production, activities of businesses, personal belongings, etc. The social outcomes 

could range from reduced human fatalities, injuries and 

illnesses, psychological trauma, and destruction of personal memorabilia. The environmental outcomes may 

include reduced damage to native flora and fauna, water 

quality, amenity values, and reduced greenhouse gas 

emissions (see CIE 2001). Failure to reduce the impact 

of bushfires means a range of costs on the community 

and the economy. Some of these costs have market values 

(tangible) and can be easily quantifiable while others 

have non-market values (intangible) and may not be 

easily quantifiable.

Using the analysis presented by CIE (2001) based 

on data and information from Emergency Management 

Australia and various electronic records held by State 

land management agencies in Australia, Gunasekera 

and others (2004) have calculated the damage costs due 

to minor and major bushfires (table 1). As described 

earlier, it is estimated that the average annual area burnt 

in Victoria due to bushfires is around 110 000 hectares. 

Assuming a damage cost per area burnt of $133 000 for 

every 1000 hectares burnt (table 1), this amounts to $14.6 

m per year. Furthermore, the damage cost due to major 

bushfires in Australia is estimated to be around $90 m 

per year based on the analysis of CIE (2001) and Bureau 

of Transport Economics (BTE) (2001) (table 1). On the 
636 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

basis that 25 percent of the area burnt in Australia due to 

bush fires generally takes place in Victoria, it could be 

inferred that 25 per cent of overall damage cost per year 

due to major bush fires in Australia of $90 m per year, 

that is $22.5 m per year, will also occur in the state of 

Victoria. Although the extent of bushfire damage impact 

discussed here is an approximation, it provides a broad 

indication of the likely average damage costs over time 

based on the best available information and plausible 

assumptions.

Hence, the bushfire damage costs in Victoria based on 

historical estimates imply an estimated $14.6 m of damage cost due to the area burnt and an additional damage 

cost of around $22.5 m due to insured losses, damage 

to timber assets, and losses due to human fatalities and 

serious injuries. Overall, this amounts to an estimated 

$37 million per year.

There are several key areas of savings (or benefits) that 

have not been taken into account explicitly here. These 

relate to potential savings to fire and emergency agencies 

as a result of efficient use of fire weather information that 

will enable them to better pre-position their resources 

including the relocation/deployment and mobilization of 

staff and equipment. For example, fire agencies deploy 

their resources including ground systems and airborne 

fire fighting operations based on the nature and intensity 

of various bushfires. Aircraft used in fire fighting operations are stored in locations least likely to be affected by 

smoke, thus maximizing the likelihood that they can take 

off safely early each morning near large fires. These are 

the costs that have to be borne as part of fire management. 

If specialized meteorological information provided by the 

Bureau help save the use of some of these resources or 

assist in better using those resources, that may lead to a 

reduction in the cost of operation of fire and emergency 

management in certain circumstances.

Another area of potential savings is due to prevention 

of fires through effective prescribed burning which could 

result in improved fuel reduction and reduced 

incidence of high intensity fires with extensive 

spread. Prescribed burning can be regarded as 

an important method by which the impact of 

bushfires can be reduced (Victorian Government 

2003). There is a renewed emphasis on fuel 

reduction programs including prescribed burning, following the major bushfires in the recent 

past. If the fire prevention measures help avoid 

at least a single fire of 1000 hectares each year, 

the savings or reduced losses could be considerable. There is also the possibility of a prescribed 

burn escaping and becoming a large bushfire 

negating any accrued benefits of the program, 

and possibly increasing the costs.

Concluding Remarks

One of the primary objectives of providing and using 

fire weather information in prevention and mitigation 

of bushfires is to ensure that the potential and actual 

threats to human life, property and other assets due to 

bushfires are reduced or, to the extent possible, avoided. 

There is widespread recognition of the importance of fire 

weather services in understanding and dealing with the 

effect of weather and climatic conditions on the impact 

of bushfires.

Based on the information provide in this paper, the 

cost of providing fire weather information to fire agencies in Victoria is around $0.8 m per year. This includes 

the direct cost of operations with respect to the provision 

of fire weather services in the Victorian Regional Office 

of around $ 0.4 m and the additional cost of $ 0.4 m of 

improved fire weather services as a result of research 

sponsored through the Bushfire CRC. This compares 

with an estimated damage cost per year due to major 

bush fires in Victoria of $37 m.

It is assumed here that the improved fire weather services by the Bureau will lead to a modest reduction in the 

impact of bushfires and the related damages and losses 

culminating in, for example, a 5 to 10 percent reduction 

in overall damages that can be expected, over a medium 

term time period (5 to 10 years), (for example, over a 7 

year period). As discussed earlier, the estimated overall 

damage cost due to bushfires in Victoria is around $37 

m per year on average, which is around $260 m over a 

7-year period. An assumed 5 to 10 percent reduction in 

overall damages due to the better use of improved fire 

weather services is expected to lead to a $13 m to 26 m 

reduction in overall damage costs over a 7-year period.

Comparing the costs of providing the additional 

enhanced information ($5.6 m over a 7-year period) to 

the potential savings illustrated here ($13 m to $26 m 

Table 1. Summary of estimated damage costs due to minor and major 

bushfires in Australia.

Type of cost Estimated cost

Minor bushfires

Damage costs per area burnt $133 000 for every 1000 hectares

burnt by bushfires

Major bushfires

Insured losses (e.g. to property, $70 million per year

assets and agricultural 

production)

Damage to timber assets $7.3 million per year

Cost of human fatalities $8.3 million per year

Cost of serious human injury $3.5million per year

Source: Based on CIE (2001), BTE (2001), and Gunasekera and others (2004).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 637

over a 7-year period) would allow us to determine if the 

cost of additional information is worth incurring. The 

results here show the investment on additional enhanced 

information is worth making as it results in savings 2 to 

5 times larger than the investment over a 7-year period. 

We have neither annualized nor discounted to the present 

the cost and benefits associated with this additional fire 

weather services program. This benefit – cost comparison 

is based on a key assumption that the provision and use 

of improved fire weather services is likely to lead to a 

reduction in the impact of bushfires and the related damages and losses culminating in, for example over a 7 year 

period, a 5 to 10 percent reduction in overall damages that 

can be estimated. An important area of future research 

that is noteworthy here is a detailed examination of the 

applicability of this assumption.

Acknowledgments

Responsibility for the views expressed rests with the 

authors. The authors appreciate the valuable comments 

and suggestions by Armando Gonzalez-Caban and Tony 

Bannister.

References

BTE (Bureau of Transport Economics) 2001. Economic 

costs of natural disasters in Australia, Report No. 103, 

Canberra

CIE (Center for International Economics) 2001. Assessing the 

contribution of CSIRO –CSIRO pricing review, prepared 

for CSIRO, Canberra and Sydney, http://www.bbm.csiro.

au/vesta/assets/pdf/Vesta_Final_Report.PDF

Gunasekera, D., Graham Mills and Tony Bannister (2004) 

Socio-economic Value of Fire Weather Services: A Case 

Study of Fire Weather Information for Prescribed Burning, 

Paper presented at the 2nd Symposium on Fire Economics, 

Planning and Policy: A Global View, The University of 

Cordoba, Rabanales Campus, Cordoba, Spain, April 19-22, 

2004.

Sol, B. 1994. Economic impact of weather forecast for forest 

fires, Meteorological Applications 1: 155-158

Victorian Government 2003. Report of the inquiry into the 

2002-03 Victorian bushfires, Melbourne

Zillman, J. (2002). In praise of international cooperation 

– Science as a global public Good. Occasional Address 

at the Conferring Ceremony for Graduates in Science, 

Engineering and Commerce, Wilson Hall, University 

of Melbourne, 16 March 2002. Australian Academy of 

Technological Sciences and Engineering – ATSE Focus 

No 122, May/June pp14-17 (Available on line www.atse.

org.au).
638 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Mexico’s biological diversity is one of its main natural resources for economic development, however, this 

biological potential has not been adequately assessed, 

and its use and conservation have not been addressed 

in a sustainable manner. Mexico is a very important 

country regarding its biodiversity use and conservation, 

because it is one of the twelve countries covering, as a 

group, between 60 to 70 percent of total planet’s biodiversity; therefore, Mexico is considered a megadiverse 

country.

Although Mexico covers 1.3 percent of the planet’s 

total area surface, it holds 10 percent of the world’s 

biodiversity; it holds the first place in number of reptile 

species; fourth place in amphibious species; second place 

in mammals, eleventh place in birds, and fourth place 

in vascular plants. Similarly, Mexico has a great rate of 

endemism, with more than 800 endemic vertebrate species. Regarding the Mexican flora, its temperate forests 

are the most diverse on earth with 55 pine tree species 

and 138 oak species, with 85 percent of endemic pine tree 

species and 70 percent of endemic oak tree species.

Tropical dry forests in Mexico are an outstanding 

natural resource, due to the large surface area they cover. 

This ecosystem can be found from Baja California Norte 

to Chiapas on the eastern coast of the country. On the 

Gulf of Mexico side it grows from Tamaulipas to Yucatan. 

This is an ecosystem that is home to a wide diversity of 

plants, which include 114 tree species. These species lose 

their leaves for long periods of time during the year. This 

plant community prospers at altitudes varying from sea 

level up to 1700 meters, in a wide range of soil conditions. The most diverse dry forests in the world occur in 

Inventorying and Monitoring of Tropical Dry Forests 

Tree Diversity in Jalisco, Mexico Using a Geographical 

Information System

Efren Hernandez-Alvarez, Ph. Dr. Candidate, Department of Forest Biometrics, 

University of Freiburg, Germany

Dr. Dieter R. Pelz, Professor and head of Department of Forest Biometrics, 

University of Freiburg, Germany

Dr. Carlos Rodriguez Franco, International Affairs Specialist, USDA-ARS Office of 

International Research Programs, Beltsville, MD

Abstract—Tropical dry forests in Mexico are an outstanding natural resource, due to the 

large surface area they cover. This ecosystem can be found from Baja California Norte to 

Chiapas on the eastern coast of the country. On the Gulf of Mexico side it grows from 

Tamaulipas to Yucatan. This is an ecosystem that is home to a wide diversity of plants, 

which include 114 tree species. These species lose their leaves for long periods of time 

during the year. This plant community prospers at altitudes varying from sea level up 

to 1700 meters, in a wide range of soil conditions. Studies regarding land attributes 

with full identification of tree species are scarce in Mexico. However, documenting the 

tree species composition of this ecosystem, and the environment conditions where 

it develops is good beginning to assess the diversity that can be found there. A geographical information system overlapping 4 layers of information was applied to define 

ecological units as a basic element that combines a series of homogeneous biotic and 

environmental factors that define specific growing conditions for several plant species. 

These ecological units were sampled to document tree species diversity in a land track 

of 4662 ha, known as “Arroyo Cuenca la Quebrada” located at Tomatlan, Jalisco. This 

paper will describe and discuss the methodology used for the study, the results obtained 

for three plant strata, the number of families found, the number of genera per family, 

and the number of species per family by Ecological Unit, and it will describe a follow up 

plan for monitoring this vegetation. This research was supported by Consejo Nacional 

de Ciencia y Tecnología (CONACYT), México, Project: 31808-B.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 639

southern Mexico and in the Bolivian lowlands(Bullock, 

Monney, and Medina, 1996; Gentry, 1993; and Parker 

and others, 1993).

Mexican inhabitants of tropical dry forest regions in 

Mexico benefit from this plant biodiversity using several species for medicinal purposes (Crecentia alata, 

Guazuma ulmifolia, Tecoma stans, and Amphiterigium 

adstringens among others), as a raw material for local 

construction, for firewood, fruit, raw material for handcrafts, honeybee production, raw material for fencing, 

forage, and religious purposes. However, not so much 

attention has been given to this magnificent natural resource, which currently faces the threat of the expansion 

of agricultural border for crops, grasslands and animal 

husbandry, overexploitation through illegal cutting, urban 

expansion, and the periodic occurrence of natural and 

human caused disturbances such as fires.

Despite this richness in natural resources, studies 

regarding land attributes with full identification of tree 

species for this ecosystem are scarce in Mexico. By this 

reason the general objective of this study was to develop 

a work methodology for the application of a geographical 

information system for a track of land located at “Arroyo 

Cuenca la Quebrada,” Tomatlan, Jalisco. The specific 

objectives were a) To determine tree species composition 

of this ecosystem, b) To determine ecological units that 

define specific growing conditions for several plant species, and the number of families, the number of genera 

per family, and the number of species per family found, 

and c) To propose a follow up plan for monitoring this 

vegetation.

Review of Literature

Tropical Sub-deciduous Forests

According to Lamprecht (1986) these are dense forests 

with tall trees, deciduous in the dry season, which lasts 

from two to 7 months. These are transitional forests between tropical rain forests and tropical dry forests, by this 

reason they are highly variable in species composition, 

structure, physiognomy, and phenology. Their distribution occurs in Africa in regions at the mid equatorial rain 

forests, mostly at the south and east; in Asia in Hindustan 

and Indochina; Latin America, in the Amazon region, 

Colombia, Venezuela, Central America and Mexico; and 

Australia at the north and east coasts.

In Mexico, this forest is a dense community and 

the height of its trees varies from 20 to 30 m, with a 

homogeneous canopy, and diameters from 30 to 80 cm. 

This forest are located in tropical areas where half and 

some times until three quarters of the species lost their 

leaves for a 6 month period during the dry season of 

the year (Rzedowsky 1983). This forest grows in areas 

with annual average temperature higher than 20o C and 

less than 28o C, annual rainfall between 1000 and 1600 

mm as a maximum, although in some areas like Jalisco 

could be 800 mm, a dry season between 5 or 7 months 

were almost all the species lost their leaves during some 

period of the year. These forest ecosystems are located 

from the sea level up to 800 m. Common species are: 

Brosimum alicastrum, Aphananthe monoica, in Jalisco, 

Colima and some part of Nayarit and Michoacán the 

most frequent species are the following: Astronium, 

graveolens, Bernoullia flammea, Sideroxylon cartilagineum, Bursera arbórea, Calophyllum brasiliense, 

Cordia alliodora, Cordia elaeagnoides, Tabebuia 

donnell-smithii, Dendropanax arboreus, Enterolobium 

cyclocarpum, Ficus cotinifolia, Ficus involuta, Ficus 

mexicana, Hura polyandra, Luehea candida, Hymenaea 

courbaril, Lysiloma divaricatum, Sideroxylon capiri, 

Attalea cohune, Swietenia humilis, Tabebuia impetiginosa y Tabebuia rosea. In the intermediate stratum the 

following species are outstanding: Acacia langlassei, 

Apoplanesia paniculata, Trichospermum mexicanum, 

Bursera excelsa, Bursera simaruba, Jacaratia mexicana, 

Ceiba aesculifolia, Coccoloba barbadensis, Cordia 

seleriana, Croton draco, Cupania glabra, Esenbeckia 

berlandieri, Eugeniamichoacanensis, Euphorbia fulva, 

Exothea copalillo, Forchhammeria pallida, Inga laurina, 

Jatropha peltata, Plumeria rubra, Psidium sartorianum, 

Swartzia simplex, among others. This type of vegetation 

can be found from Central Sinaloa up to Chiapas along 

the coastal line up to 1,200 m above sea level and in small 

areas in central Veracruz, central Chiapas and central and 

north Yucatan (Rzedowski y McVaugh, 1966, Pennington 

y Sarukhán, 1998).

Tropical Dry Forests

According to Lamprecht (1986) tropical dry forests 

vary from dense to very poor stand density, mostly xerophytic or deciduous in the dry season, which lasts from 

5 to 7.5 months. They have a rainfall varying from 700 

to 1000 mm/year, and sometimes more; they can have 

two strata, with poor floristic composition. This type 

of forest grows mostly in Africa: south of Sahara, the 

Eastern part including Kenya, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe. 

In North America and Central America: in the mountain 

range from Mexico to Costa Rica; in South America 

in the Chaco region, in the Pacific ocean side close to 

Guayaquil, Equator up to Northern Peru, and on the 

Atlantic ocean side in Venezuela, Colombia and Brazil. 

In Asia it can be found at the occidental monsoonal zone 

close to India, at the dry watershed in High Burman, 
640 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Thailand, the Khorat watershed, and the dry monsoon 

region of the Sunda Islands.

In Mexico, these forests are located in tropical areas where the dominat species loose their leaves for 

a 6 month period during the dry season of the year 

(Rzedowsky, 1983). This type of forest grows in areas 

with an annual average temperature higher than 20o C, 

annual rainfall between 800 and 1200 mm as a maximum, 

a dry season between 7 or 8 months during, which almost 

all the species loose their leaves during some period of 

the year. These forest ecosystems are located from the 

sea level up to 1700 meters above sea level.

Tree height varies from 4 to 10 meters, although can 

reach 15 m. Frequently, the trunks of the trees are short, 

twisted and with branches starting close to the soil, tree 

crowns are sparse and extended, and a great number of 

species can sprout. The understory is very scarce and 

it can be seen only during the rain season. Lianas are 

abundant and epiphytes are limited to those from the bromeliaceae family such as the genus Tillandsia. Succulent 

plants are common and are represented by the genus 

Agave, Opuntia, Lemaireocereus, and Cephalocereus. 

Species with spines are not abundant. This plant community grows on hillsides, stony ground, and in sandy 

or clay shallow soils with good superficial drain. It has 

a wide geographical distribution on the Pacific coastline, 

especially in the Balsas river watershed and on hillsides of the Occidental mountain range from Colima to 

Sonora states in ravines. It extends from Baja California 

to Chiapas. At the side of the Gulf of Mexico it can be 

found in the region known as the Huasteca, and a large 

portion of Yucatan.

Frequent tree species on the Pacific coastline 

(Michoacan, Jalisco, Colima and Nayarit states) are: 

Lysiloma divaricatum, Bursera excelsa, Bursera fagaroides, Ceiba aesculifolia, Comocladia engleriana, 

Cyrtocarpa procera, Lonchocarpus eriocarinalis, 

Lysiloma acapulcensis, Pseudosmodingium perniciosum, 

Spondias purpurea, and Trichilia americana (Rzedowsky 

and McVaugh, 1996; Pennington and Sarukhan, 1998).

Land Classification Systems

Most land classification systems are based on the 

study of the physical and biological attributes of the land 

surface. These systems only differ in the classification 

unit concept in which the generation of maps is used for 

planning the different human activities carried out in a 

specific region.

In Australia, the Division of Land Research and 

Regional Survey of The Commonwealth Scientific and 

Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) developed a 

system of geomorphological mapping for resource survey 

based on a concept of land units and land systems. The 

concept was designed to provide a basic and functional 

subdivision of landscape (Christian and Stewart, 1968). 

A land unit was defined as an area dominated by a land 

surface with similar genesis and with similar topography, soils, vegetation, and climate. A land system was 

assembled of land units, which are geographically and genetically related (Christian, 1958). This system was well 

adapted to rapid reconnaissance surveys of large areas 

based on information derived from aerial photographs, 

and it was widely used to map large areas of Australia 

and New Guinea (Mabbutt and Stewart, 1963).

Another land classification system is the one based on 

the landscape or geomorphological and edaphic criteria; 

the phisiographical survey is represented by CSIRO, the 

Military Engineering Experimental Establishment in 

England and the National Institute for Road Research 

in South Africa.

One more system is known as ecological typology 

represented by the French group “Centre D’Etudes 

Phytosociologiques et Ecologiques” based on regions 

made up of climatic, phisiographic, geological, and 

edaphic criteria, and vegetation types (Boyas, 1992). The 

basic unit in this system is the site or station, which defines a homogeneous unit based on climate, topography, 

geology, soil, and vegetation. In this system vegetation 

has more weight for territorial regionalization, because 

it is considered is the most exact expression of the interaction of environmental factors. According to Boyas 

(1992), this is the closest definition to the term called 

ecological unit in which the study to determine productivity, composition and structure of arboreal communities 

in Morelos state in Mexico was based.

Currently these kinds of land classification systems 

are widely used to support studies that to work with 

ecosystem and landscape ecology, which focuses on 

structure, the spatial patterns of landscape elements, 

and ecological objects (such as animals, biomass, and 

mineral nutrients); function, the flow of objects between 

landscape elements; and change, alterations in the mosaic 

through time (Forman and Godron, 1986).

In Mexico, several studies have been done using 

the phisiographical system (Ortiz and Cuanalo, 1984). 

Most of them were done to estimate land productivity 

for agricultural activities as a basis for the elaboration of 

management and conservation plans (Peña, 1974; Ponce 

and Cuanalo, 1977; Ortiz y Cuanalo, 1977; Rodriguez y 

Ortiz, 1982; Basurto and others, 1984; Soria and Ortiz, 

1987; Salazar y Ortiz, 1987; and Terrazas, Ortiz and 

Vargas, 2002).

The use of the ecological typology methodology in 

Mexico has been applied to develop several studies to 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 641

estimate the productivity capacity of the land for planning 

animal husbandry, agricultural, and forestry activities. 

The concept of ecological units has been used as the 

basic study unit to assess the best use aptitude of the 

land according to its productive potential. The National 

Institute for Statistics, Geography, and Informatics based 

on the French School has developed charts of potential 

use of the land for that entire country.

Studies to obtain ecological units charts for specific regions of some states such as Huitzilac, Morelos 

(Reyes and Boyas, 1983), Morones mountain range in 

Zacatecas (Vela y Boyas, 1984), and the region known 

as la Montaña in Guerrero (Toledo, 1984; Carabias and 

others 1987) have been developed for planning of agricultural and conservation activities.

The most important effort in applying this methodology was done by Boyas (1992) to define the ecological 

regionalization of Morelos state through the definition 

of ecological units for the most important arboreal 

communities and to assess the composition, structure, 

and wood productivity of the most important ecological 

units for tropical dry forests in the whole state. Climatic, 

phisiographic, geologic, soil, and current use of the soils 

1: 250,000 scale charts were stratified and overlapped to 

define 130 ecological units; those with the biggest size 

were considered as more representative of the environmental conditions in the state; 22 covered 76 percent of 

the state surface area.

The composition, structure, and wood productivity of 

the tropical dry forest was studied through a systematic 

forest inventory with a sample intensity of 0.01 percent of 

the total area surface. The taxonomic studies showed the 

presence of 100 tree species, and the most important plant 

families were leguminosae and burseraceae; for each ecological unit the vertical stratification of the average stand 

was obtained according to their diametric structure; three 

arboreal strata were identified. Total volume and commercial volume were estimated for the 100 species and 

by ecological unit as an indicator of productivity. This 

study shows demonstrates that the ecological typology 

methodology constitutes a very good framework to assess 

forest potential for a region, and that productivity varies 

for each ecological unit, providing the basis to design and 

plan specific management plans for each one.

Materials and Methods

Area of Study

This study was carried out on a forested track of land 

known as “Arroyo Cuenca Quebrada,” in Tomatlan, 

Jalisco. This track of land has a total surface area of 

4,462 hectares. It is located between the coordinates 

105o 05’ West longitude and 19o 55 North latitude. It 

is located 70 km from Puerto Vallarta. The weather is 

considered as A w 1 (w). (I’) sub-humid tropical with 

rainfall in summer. The average total annual amount of 

rainfall is 1408 mm; the average temperature is 25.8o C, 

with an oscillation between 5o to 7o C (Garcia, 1988). 

Tropical deciduous and dry forests occupy 97 percent 

of the area; the remaining amount of land is mainly 

covered with grassland, a small amount of oak forest 

(5.7 ha), and of agriculture 5 ha. The intrusive igneous 

rocks are derived from the cretaceous period, and are 

mostly granite. According to the FAO/UNESCO soil 

classification system (2001) modified by the National 

Institute for Statistics, Geography and Informatics of 

Mexico (1989), this area has regosol eutric (unconsolidated mineral material of some depth, excluding coarse 

textured materials and materials with fluvic properties, 

with no diagnostic horizons other than an ochric horizon); Cambisol eutric, and cambisol chromic (soils with 

incipient soil formation. Beginning transformation of 

soil material is evident from weak, mostly brownish discoloration and/or structure formation below the surface 

horizon); Phaeozems haplic are more intensively leached 

in wet seasons. Consequently, they have dark, humus 

surface soils that are less rich in bases than surface soils 

of Chernozems and Kastanozems and Phaeozems, and 

have no signs of secondary carbonates in the upper meter 

of soil; and litosols (soils with less of 10 cm of depth 

to the bedrock). The area has an accidental topography 

with slopes from 5 to 20 percent. The average altitude 

above sea level varies from 128 to 760 m. The aspect 

in general in the study area is Southwest.

Methods

Ecological classification of the study area

Digital cartographic material of the GIS database 

created by Kruger (2000) at a scale 1:50,000 was used. 

The digital layers with vectorial data to define the ecological units were: Area.shp, Contours.shp, Presammpl.

shp, Sample.shp, Geology.shp, Soils.shp, and Landuse.

shp, and the layers with raster data used were DMH.grid, 

Exposition.grid and Hangneigung.grid. The stratification 

of the ecological units was done according to French 

methodology pointed out by Boyas (1992), overlapping 

maps. The GIS Arc View© with the geoprocessing wizard 

tool was used to overlay different layers of information 

and the generation of new ones. The specific functions 

used were dissolve features based on an attribute, merge 

themes together, clip one theme based on another, 
642 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

intersect two themes, union two themes, and assign data 

by location or spatial joint.

The main layer used was geology to overlap the different layers of information such as soils, digital altitude 

pattern, aspect, slope, and vegetation. Strata were defined 

according to their limits and combination of physical 

types and vegetation types. In this way each stratum 

was defined by 4 factors (geology, soils, vegetation, and 

altitude) giving origin to ecologic units.

Tree species composition assessment

A systematic sampling design was carried out. 

Distance between sampling lines was 500 m and between 

plots was 250 m. A pilot sample with 20 plots was used 

to estimate the coefficient of variation for diameter at 

breast height and compute the final sample size. A final 

sample size of 357 plots was taken with a 95 percent of 

confidence and sampling intensity of 0.4 percent. Each 

plot was located with a preprogrammed GPS with the 

data of the sampling grid; at the plot center a metallic rod 

was buried to allow the future plot relocation. Circular 

plots of three sizes were used. Circular 500 m2 plots for 

recording data of adult trees, 100 m2 circular subplots for 

intermediate size trees and 12.57 m2 circular subplots for 

tree regeneration. At each plot the following information 

was recorded:

Control data. Plot number, UTM geographical coordinates, name of the responsible person for the information, 

date of the sampling, additional plot information such as 

erosion presence (no erosion, sheet erosion, channel erosion, and gully erosion), disturbance type (none, illegal 

cuttings, grazing, insect attack, other), and tree damage 

(high, medium, and low), use of the soil (forest, animal 

husbandry, agriculture).

Tree data. For all the trees over 5 cm of dbh, plot number, individual number, species name, dbh, total height, 

distance from the center of the plot to the tree, azimuth 

(from cero to 360 degrees), health status of the tree 

(good, regular, sick), damage (hollow up, bunch of stems, 

bifurcated, curve, decrepit, blunted, branchless, injured, 

sided, none, infested, half-alive) were recorded. For the 

500 m2 plot additional information was recorded such as 

commercial height, and average crown diameter.

Analysis of data. Digital cartographic material of the 

GIS database created by Kruger (2000) at scale 1:50,000 

was used as starting point to create a wider database and 

expand the existing information, as well as to generate 

new information layers. The information from the forest 

inventory was cleansed, and stored in excel format for 

processing. This format allowed management of the files 

to be used with the Statistical Analysis System to estimate 

the central tendency parameters for the variables recorded 

at the forest inventory, in general for all the population, 

for each ecological unit.

Results and Discussion

Ecological Units (EU)

The map of EU for the track of land Arroyo Cuenca 

Quebrada, in Tomatlan, Jalisco was obtained. The main 

layer used was geology to overlap the different layers 

of information of soil, digital altitude pattern, aspect, 

slope, and vegetation. The bigger weight was given to 

vegetation, because it is the most exact expression of all 

the interaction of environmental factors, in the definition of the boundaries between EU (fig. 1). According 

to this map the study area has 19 EU (table 1), but only 

14 covered with forest were considered relevant to this 

study. The most representative EU were those with the 

bigger coverage of surface area, pointed out at table 1 

with numbers 6,7 and 8, which are covering 4,087.7 ha 

(91.5 percent) of the total area. Their altitude range only 

differentiates them.

Vegetation

The vegetation types found at the area correspond 

with those described by Rzedowski (1983) as tropical 

sub-deciduous forest and tropical dry forest. Ten EU with 

4,255.1 ha (95.3 percent of the total area) were covered 

by tropical sub-deciduous forest; the remaining four 

EU are covered with tropical dry forest. The dominant 

vegetation families at the area are (table 2) leguminosae 

with 16 genera and 22 species, the euphorbiaceae family with 5 genera and 7 species, the moraceae family 

with 4 genera and 6 species followed by the myrtaceae 

family with 2 genera and 4 species. Dominant genera 

per family were for the leguminosae Acacia with 4 species, Lonchocarpus with 3 species, and Lysiloma with 

2 species; euphorbiaceae with the genera Croton with 2 

species, and Cnidoscolus with 3 species; moraceae with 

the genus Ficus with 3 species; myrtaceae with the genus Psidium with 3 species; burceraceae with the genus 

Bursera with 3 species; and the bignonaceae family with 

the genus Tabebuia with 4 species (table 2). These results 

coincided with those reported by Rzedowski y McVaugh, 

1966, Rzedowski, 1983, Pennington y Sarukhán, 1998, 

and Boyas, 1992.

The total number of families found at the area was 39 

families with 75 genera and 136 species. It is important 

to mention that 40 species were identified at the field 

only with common names, when the forest inventory was 

carried out, and further taxonomic identification work is 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 643

required; the list of species found in this study, together 

with other of their main characteristics are presented at 

the table 2.

Regarding plant families distribution by EU, the 

Ecological Unit with representation of the 39 families found in this study was the one identified as Gr 

Re+Hh+I/1*LITI Selva Baja media, with a surface area 

of 12.8 ha, indicating that there is high species diversity 

per unit of land, and this result also shows that tropical 

dry forest in this environmental conditions in Jalisco state 

is more diverse than tropical sub-deciduous forest (table 

3). The subsequent EU with more families represented 

were Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Selva Mediana media with 

30 families, followed by the EU Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP 

Selva Mediana alta with 28 families, these last two EU 

cover a total surface area of 3,191.59 ha. the EU with 

the less number of families was Gr Be/1 Selva Mediana 

baja with 1 family (palmae) covering 4.52 ha,this 

situation could be a result of a disturbance occurrence 

such as intensive grazing or a fire, but more detailed 

studies are needed about stand dynamics in the long 

term to know the successional dynamics of this type of 

Figure 1. Ecological units at Arroyo Cuenca Quebrada, in Tomatlan, Jalisco, Mexico.
644 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Table 1. Ecological units at Arroyo Cuenca Quebrada, in Tomatlan, Jalisco.

Number Ecological unit Surface area (ha) Surface area (%)

1 Gr Bc+Re/2 Selva Mediana alta 5.16 0.12

Gr Be/1 Otro Uso baja 4.41 0.16

2 Gr Be/1 Selva Mediana baja 4.52 0.33

Gr Hh/2 Otro Uso media 7.90 0.33

3 Gr Hh/2 Selva Mediana media 0.49 0.03

Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Otro Uso alta 52.98 2.13

Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Otro Uso baja 21.66 0.66

Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Otro Uso media 45.08 1.18

4 Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Selva Baja alta 2.84 0.28

5 Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Selva Baja media 58.78 2.66

6 Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Selva Mediana alta 780.29 24.21

7 Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Selva Mediana baja 896.11 13.78

8 Gr Re+Bc+Hh/1*LITP Selva Mediana media 2411.30 48.19

9 Gr Re+Hh+I/1*LITI Selva Baja alta 1.31 0.12

10 Gr Re+Hh+I/1*LITI Selva Baja media 12.80 0.35

11 Gr Re+Hh+I/1*LITI Selva Mediana alta 44.65 1.44

12 Gr Re+Hh+I/1*LITI Selva Mediana media 16.49 0.67

13 Gr Re+I/1*LITI Selva Mediana baja 8.21 0.28

14 Gr Re+I/1*LITI Selva Mediana media 87.88 3.10

Total 4,462.91 100%

Gr= Granite, Bc= Cambisol cromico, Re= Regosol eutrico, Be= Cambisol cromico, Hh= Fezem haplico, /1 = thick 

texture, /2 = medium texture, LITI = soil fase litic cover with rocks from 10 to 50 cm, LITP= soil fase deep ltic 

with rocks from 50 to 100 cm, baja= 0-250 m, media= 251-500 m alta=501-760 m above sea level.

Table 2. List of species found at the Arroyo Cuenca Quebrada, in Tomatlan, Jalisco.

Species Species Botanic Wood

number	 common name	 Scientific name	 family	 Plant use	 clasification

001 Achiote Bixa orellana Bixaceae The fruit is used as a coloring for 

 chewing gum

002 Aguacatillo, laurelillo Nectandra ambigens Lauraceae Firewood Soft wood

003 Ahuilote Vitex mollis Verbenaceae The fruit is edible and together with the 

 leaves are medicinal

004 Algodoncillo Luehea speciosa Tiliaceae Post and firewood Low quality

005 Amolillo, jaboncillo Sapindus saponaria Sapindaceae

006 Anona Annona purpurea Anonaceae Edible fruit

007 Árbol María Calophyllum brasilense Gutiferaceae Sawmilling, furnitures and construction Precious wood

008 Arrayán Psidium sartorianum Myrtaceae Edible fruit, Saw mill

009 Arrayancillo Eugenia fragans Myrtaceae Postes, furnitures and construction Common tropical

010 Arrayancillo negro

011 Bejuco

012 Bonete Jacaratia mexicana Caricaceae Fruit edible and medicinal use

013 Botoncillo, aucelote Cordia alliodora Boraginaceae Posts, beams, and furniture Saw mill

014 Brasil Haematoxylon brasiletto Leguminosae Furnitures and construction and natural 

 colorant

015 Cabra Aphananthe monoica Ulmaceae Posts. Saw mill

016 Camotillo Dalbergia sp. Asteraceae

017 Canelilla Croton sp. Euphorbiaceae Sticks for crops. Saw mill

018 Caoba, cobano Swietenia humilis Meliaceae Sawmilling, furnitures Precious wood

019 Capiri Masthicodendron capiri Sapotaceae

020 Capomillo Trophis racemosa Moraceae

021 Capomo Brosimum alicastrum Moraceae Sawmilling, construction, and leaves Precious wood

 and fruit for forage

022 Capulín Tremula micrantha Ulmaceae

023 Caramuza hardwood

024 Cedoso

025 Cedro blanco Gyrocarpus jatrophifolius Hernandiaceae High quality wood

026 Cedro rojo Cedrela odorata Meliaceae Sawmilling, furnitures. Precious wood

027 Ceiba, pochote Ceiba aesculifolia Bombacaceae The fiber of the fruit is used for stuffing 

 pillows

028 Chachalaco

029 Chicozapote Pouteria sp. Sapotaceae

030 Chilte Cnidoscolus elasticus Euphorbiaceae Chewing gum

031 Chorunbo garruñolo

032 Cinión, cinlón
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 645

Table 2. Continued.

Species Species Botanic Wood

number	 common name	 Scientific name	 family	 Plant use	 clasification

033 Ciruelo Spondias purpurea Anacardiaceae Edible fruit

034 Clavellina Pseudobombax ellipticum Bombacaceae

035 Cola de vaca

036 Coloradillo

037 Concha Pithecellobium lanceolatum Leguminosae posts, fruit for forage Saw mill

038 Copal Bursera heteresthes Burceraceae Fruit use for inciense

039 Copalillo Bursera excelsa Burceraceae Construction Saw mill

040 Cruzillo Randia laevigata

041 Cuamecate Anredera vesicaria Basellaceae Hornamental and medicinal

042 Cuata Vitex piramidata Verbenaceae Se wood use for doors Saw mill

043 Cuata laca Caesaria dolichophylla Flacurtiaceae

044 Cuate Eysenhartia polystachya Leguminosae Posts and constuction High quality wood

045 Cuernillo Posts Long lasting wood

046 Cuerno de toro Posts

047 Cuero de Indio Lonchocarpus Leguminosae Porous wood

 longopedicellatus

048 Cuil

049 Cuirí

050 Culebro, amargoso Astronium graveolens Anacardiaceae Sawmilling, furnitures and construction High quality wood

051 Embele Wood use for handcrafts

052 Encino Quercus glaucescens Fagaceae Industrial use

053 Frutilla

054 Gallinilla

055 Garrapato Lonchocarpus constrictus Leguminosae Posts High quality wood

056 Garruño negro

057 Gavilancillo

058 Gobonero

059 Granadillo Platymiscium lasiocarpum Leguminosae Posts and construction High quality wood

060 Guaiparín

061 Guajillo Leucaena glauca Leguminosae Posts High quality wood

062 Guasima Guazuma ulmifolia Sterculiaceae Sawmilling, furnitures and construction, High quality wood

 fruit for forage

063 Guayabilla Psidium guineense Myrtaceae

064 Guayabo Psidium guajava Myrtaceae

065 Habillo Hura polyandra Euphorbiaceae Sawmilling, furnitures High quality wood

066 Hediondillo Cassia atomaria

067 Higuera Ficus obtusifolia Moraceae Fruit and foliage use for forage

068 Hincha huevos Comocladia engleriana Anacardiaceae Posts and construction harwood

069 Hormiguillo, Cecropia obtusifolia Cecropiaceae Construction High quality wood

guarumbo, trompeta, 

 cuitapilli

070 Huevo de gato Thevetia ovata Apocynaceae Construction. sawmill

071 Huizache Acacia farnesiana Leguminosae Posts and fruit for forage sawmill

072 Huizapol

073 Huizcolote Acacia cymbispina Leguminosae Posts sawmill

074 Jarretadera Acacia hindsii Leguminosae

075 Juan Pérez Pseudosmodingium 

 perniciosum

076 Juanita Halimium glomeratum Cistaceae Firewood firewood

077 Juaquinicuil Inga jinicuil Leguminosae Edible fruit and for forage.

078 Lechoso

079 Llora sangre, sangre Croton draco Euphorbiaceae Packingboxes, coloring, and bark for

 de grado medicinal purposes

080 Majahua Heliocarpus pallidus Tiliaceae Construction sawmill

081 Mameycillo

082 Mano de león Oreopanax xalapensis Araliaceae

083 Maravilla

084 Margarita Karwinskia latifolia Rhamnaceae Construction sawmill

085 Mataiza Sapium pedicellatum Euphorbiaceae Sin uso

086 Mora Chlorophora tinctoria Moraceae Posts and construction sawmill

087 Murciélago Wood for tool handles sawmill

088 Nance Byrsonima crassifolia Malpigiaceae Edible fruit edible

089 Naranjillo Posts, and tool handles sawmill

090 Naranzuchil

091 Obo, ravelero Sciadodendron excelsum Araliaceae

092 Órgano Pachycereus pecten- Cactaceae Edible fruit edible

 aboriginum

093 Otras

094 Palma coyul Acrocomia aculeata Palmae Edible fruit, wood for beams

095 Palma real Sabal mexicana Palmae Leaves used as a house roof sawmill

096 Palo blanco Tabebuia sp. Bignoniaceae Construction sawmill

097 Palo bobo Ipomea arborescens Convolvulaceae

098 Palojiote

099 Pan pan Cnidoscolus tubulosos Euphorbiaceae
646 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Table 2. Continued.

Species Species Botanic Wood

number	 common name	 Scientific name	 family	 Plant use	 clasification

100 Papelillo Bursera simaruba Burceraceae Sawmilling, furnitures and construction sawmill

101 Parota Entherolobium cyclocarpum Leguminosae Sawmilling, furnitures and construction, Precious wood

 edible fruit and for forage

102 Parotilla Poeppigia procera Leguminosae

103 Pata de res

104 Pata de venado Bahuinia cungulata Leguminosae Posts hardwood

105 Pinolillo, tzinacacao Andira inermis Leguminosae Furniture and doors sawmill

106 Polvillo Lonchocarpus sp. Leguminosae

107 Pozolillo

108 Primavera Tabebuia donnell-smithii Bignoniaceae Sawmilling and furniture precious wood

109 Quebramuelas Cupania dentata Sapindaceae Wood for tool handles sawmill

110 Quemador Cnidoscolus sp. Euphorbiaceae

111 Raspa vieja Curatella americana Dilleniaceae

112 Roble Quercus sp. Fagaceae

113 Rosa morada, amapa Tabebuia rosea Bignoniaceae Sawmilling and furnitures precious wood

114 Saladillo

115 San Antonio

116 Suelda Agonandra racemosa Posts sawmill

117 Tacote

118 Tacotillo

119 Tahuitole Pterocarpus orbiculatus Leguminosae Posts sawmill

120 Tampiziran Dalbergia congestiflora Leguminosae Sawmilling and furnitures High quality wood

121 Tancua

122 Tempuche

123 Tepame Acacia pennatula Leguminosae

124 Tepeguaje Lysiloma acapulcensis Leguminosae Posts and construction sawmill

125 Tepemezquite Lysiloma microphylla Leguminosae Posts and construction sawmill

126 Tezcalame Ficus cotinifolia Moraceae Fruit for forage

127 Tintilagua

128 Trementinillo

129 Uña de gato Mimosa benthami Leguminosae Posts for construction

130 Vainero

131 Verdecillo, palo fierro, Tabebuia chrysantha Bignoniaceae Posts and tool handles sawmill

amapilla, amapa prieta

132 Xilomecate, panicua, Cochlospermum vitifolium Cochlosperm- Fiber used to make ropes

rosa amarilla, huevo aceae

 de burro

133 Zacalozuchilt, corpo, Plumeria rubra Apocynaceae Posts

flor de mayo, palo 

 de oído

134 Zalate Ficus petiolaris Moraceae Fruit for forage forage

135 Zapotillo Couepia polyandra Rosaceae Sawmilling, furnitures and beams hardwood

136 Zorrillo Zanthoxylon sp. Rutaceae Wood for tool handles sawmill

vegetation at the study area. Regarding this kind of 

studies the plots established in this research has been 

planned as a permanent plots, and a series of different 

studies will be carried out in the long term. This study 

constitutes the first approach to the processing of part of 

the total database of this research.

Conclusions

The ecological typology methodology with the use of 

GIS constitutes a very good tool to assess the environmental conditions and the forest potential for a region. 

The definition of ecological units provides the basis to 

design and plan specific management, and monitoring 

plans for each one in particular and the whole region.

The ecological regionalization done in this research 

allows the identification of specific growing conditions 

and the definition of ecological requirements for different 

plant species to develop through an ecological range.

One hundred thirty six species were recorded in all 

the ecological units. The most diverse ecological unit 

was Gr Re+Hh+I/1*LITI Selva Baja media with 39 

plant families.

The dominant vegetation families at the area were leguminosae, euphorbiaceae, moraceae, and myrtaceae.

Dominant genera were Acacia, Lonchocarpus, 

Lysiloma, Croton, Cnidoscolus, Ficus, Psidium, Bursera 

and Tabebuia.

This technique has potential application to a wide 

spectrum of ecological problems and to the management and conservation of biodiversity. However, its 

most potential application could be in inventorying 

and monitoring natural resources, because the effective 

application of ecological knowledge to problems of ecosystem management requires the utilization of a variety 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 647

Table 3. Plant families distribution for EU at Arroyo Cuenca Quebrada, in Tomatlan, Jalisco.

Family/EU 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Anacardiadeae X X X X X X X X X X

Anonaceae X X X X X X X X

Apocynaceae X X X

Araliaceae X X X X

Asteraceae X

Basellaceae X X

Bignoniaceae X X X X X X X X X X

Bixaceae X X

Bombacaceae X X X X X

Boraginaceae X X X X X

Burceraceae X X X X X X X X X X X X

Cactaceae X X

Caricaceae X X X X X X X X

Cecropiaceae X X X X X

Cistaceae X X X X X

Cochlospermaceae X X X X X X

Convolvulaceae X X X

Dilleniaceae X X X

Euphorbiaceae X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Fagaceae X X X

Flacurtiaceae X X X

Gutiferaceae X X X

Hernandiaceae X X X X X X

Lauraceae X X X

Leguminosae X X X X X X X X X X X

Malpighiaceae X X

Meliaceae X X X X

Moraceae X X X X X X X X

Myrtaceae X X X X X X

Palmae X X X X X X X X

Rhamnaceae X X X

Rosaceae X X X X

Rutaceae X X X X

Sapindaceae X X X X X X X

Sapotaceae X X X X

Sterculiaceae X X X X X X X X X X

Tiliaceae X X X X X X X X X

Ulmaceae X X X X X X

Verbenaceae X X X X

Total 7 1 4 9 11 28 8 30 13 39 12 12 24 18

of information (from historical records, the research 

data, to observations obtained by direct management and 

disturbances effect) at different aggregations levels that 

this methodology can provide.

It is recommended to develop further taxonomic 

identification work and further studies on ecological 

succession to provide an understanding of successional 

dynamics, and the interrelationship between successional 

processes and other community attributes associated with 

stability, diversity, and dominance.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 649

Introduction

The main functions of a tree crown are assimilation, 

respiration and transpiration. Assimilation, which is 

known as photosynthesis in green plants, can be described as the process by which light energy is trapped 

by chlorophyll and used to produce sugar from carbon 

dioxide and water. Respiration refers to the process by 

which the energy stored in reduced carbon compounds 

during photosynthesis is released by oxidation in a form 

that can be used in assimilation and growth, and in maintenance of cell structure and function. Transpiration is the 

process of taking water from the soil through plant roots 

and the loss of this water into the atmosphere as water 

steam through the leaves (Kozlowski and others 1991).

The tree crown is one complement of net primary 

production and its dimensions reflect general tree health. 

Dense and large crowns are associated with potential 

growth rates. Sparse and small crowns can prove responsive to unfavorable site conditions (competition, 

moisture, diseases). Tree crowns are highly variable. 

Their general shape varies from relatively dense conoid 

crown-shapes for conifers of an excurrent habitat to 

wide open shapes for many broad-leaved trees of a deliquescent habitat (Husch and others 2003). Tree crown 

research contributes to several key forest ecosystem 

attributes: biodiversity, productivity, forest management, 

forest environment, and wildlife. Crown characteristics 

are useful in predicting growth responses in spacing and 

thinning, and in relating growth to soil moisture availability. These studies emphasize the close relationship 

between the crown size and the amount of the photosynthetically active foliage (Laar and Akca 1997).

The surface area of forest trees is a useful measurement for the study of precipitation interception, light 

transmission through forest canopies, forest litter accumulation, soil moisture loss, and transpiration rates 

(Husch and others 2003). The size of a tree crown is 

strongly correlated to tree growth. The crown displays 

the leaves to allow the capture of radiant energy for 

photosynthesis. Thus, measurement of a tree crown is 

often used to assist in the quantification of tree-growth. 

The crown biomass and the quantity and quality of 

branch material, however, are also of direct interest to 

ecological studies and research into the effects of trees 

on pollution. Nowadays, the knowledge concerning to 

the tree crown structure is important, in the sense that 

trees use this tree component as a source of absorption 

of carbon dioxide.

Now, the length of the live crown is determined as 

the height of the first branch or the first live branches 

(Bachmann, 1998; Nagel and Biging, 1996; Kramer and 

Tree Crown Structure Indicators in a Natural UnevenAged Mixed Coniferous Forest in Northeastern Mexico

Javier Jiménez-Pérez, Oscar Aguirre-Calderón, and Horst Kramer

Abstract—Characterization of tree crown structure provides critical information to assess 

a variety of ecological conditions for multiple purposes and applications. For biomass 

growth, for example, tree crowns have basic physiological functions: assimilation, respiration, and transpiration. How tree crowns spatially interact and grow can bring about 

a seamless landscape of unique features and microclimatic conditions that are highly 

relevant to biological diversity, soil processes, productivity, wildlife habitats, ecosystem 

health and sustainability. Approaches to measuring tree crown structure and variability 

within multiple diameter distributions are particularly important in uneven-aged, multispecies natural stands. Results of using the “Weibull bimodal probability distribution 

function” to model diameter distributions of multi-storied stands and various crown 

index measurements to describe their respective tree crown attributes and properties 

are presented and discussed. Specific patterns of values of these indices were found 

which suggest they have potential for use as indicators of crown structure complexity 

and variability across a wide spectrum of forest conditions and types. In light of these 

results, we also address the relevance of these results for forest inventory and monitoring programs. Funding for this research was provided by Mexico’s National Council of 

Science and Technology (Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACYT; Project 

333919-B) and Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León.
650 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

others 1999). Taking into consideration the crown as a 

primary element in the vegetation development, several 

scientific studies relating to tree crown confirmation and 

growth have been undertaken to determine tree growth 

through models for tree crown profiles (Kellomäki and 

Kurttio, 1991; Biging and Gill, 1997; Gadow, 1999; Gill 

and others 2000).

Objective

The objective of this research is to develop a method to 

characterize tree crown structure in uneven-aged, mixed 

coniferous forests, through the application of tree dimensions (dbh, total height, basal area), diameter distribution 

(bimodal Weibull distribution) and crown indexes (crown 

width, crown thickness index, crown spread ratio, crown 

projection area and crown surface area).

Study Site and Methods

In recent decades, Mexico has promoted the protection 

of natural forests through the creation of protected areas 

and national parks (Jiménez and Kramer 1991, Aguirre 

and others 2001). Accordingly, in 1998 the Cerro El 

Potosí was decreed as protected area, containing natural 

forests of high biological value and being located in the 

highest peaks (3,675 masl) of Northeastern Mexico. 

This mountainous area is located in the Sierra Madre 

Oriental.

The study area is located in Cerro El Potosí, in a mixed 

coniferous forest composed by Abies vejari, Pseudotsuga 

menziesii, Pinus hartwegii and Pinus ayacahuite. This 

uneven-aged stand contains 504 trees, with a mixture of 

species in a marked differentiation of strata. For each tree 

the diameter (dbh), height (h), age (t), and basal area (g), 

as well as its spatial distribution, were measured. The 

area is located at an altitude of 3,100 meters above the 

sea level (figure 1).

To obtain the diametric distributions per species, the 

Weibull distribution was employed, being one of the most 

used in the forest area because of its relative flexibility, as 

well as being better adapted to uneven-aged and mixed 

forest (Zarnoch and Dell, 1985; Killki and others 1989; 

Maltamo and others).

f x( ) = c

b

* x − a

b





 





c−1

*e

x − a

b





 





c

Where:

x=dbh, a=Location parameter, b=Scale parameter, and 

c=Shape parameter.

Crown radius is needed in certain kinds of competition 

measurements (Gill and others 2000) and is defined in 

this study as the distance between the center of the bole 

and the four cardinal points. Crown diameter or crown 

width assessment is based on the measurement of two 

or four radii, and is usually defined as twice the radius. 

Crown length or live crown length (Biging and others 

1990) is defined as the distance between the apex of the 

tree and the base of the live crown (CL = tree height 

– crown base). Live crown length is the distance between 

the apex and the light crown.

After tree crown parameters were measured, the 

following crown indexes were calculated: Crown percentage (CR%), Light crown percentage (LCP%), Crown 

thickness index (CTI), Crown spread ratio (CSR), Crown 

projection area (CPA), and Crown surface area (CSA).

Crown percentage is the length of the light crown 

length calculated as a percentage of the total tree 

height (CR%=100*CL/h). Light crown percentage is 

the percentage of light crown length and crown length 

(LCP%=100*LCL/CL). Crown thickness index is the 

ratio of the crown diameter and crown length (CTI=CD/

CL). Crown spread ratio is the ratio between the crown 

diameter and the tree height and it is used when attempting to determine the shape of the crown (CSR=CD/h). 

The crown projection area is the surface occupied by the 

crown and is usually used as a measurement of stand density (CPA=π/4*CD). The crown surface area is defined 

as the external surface area of the live crown. Normally 

it is assumed that the conifer crown can be represented 

either as a cone or as a paraboloid (Kramer, 1998; Laar 

and Akca, 1997; Jiménez and others 2002)

Figure 1. Location of the study area.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 651

Results and Discussion

Size Structure

From the table 1 we found that the numbers of 

individuals, as well as the basal area per hectare are 

very different. There is a similarity between the individual number of most species: Pinus ayacahuite (124 

stems/hectare), Abies vejari (120 stems/hectare) and 

Pseudotsuga menziesii (102 stems/hectare), most of them 

except Pinus hartwegii (60 stems/hectare). However, an 

affinity was discovered in the values of the basal area for 

Pinus ayacahuite, P. hartwegii and Pseudotsuga menziesii. Despite the fact that Abies vejari showed a higher 

tree number, its basal area only represents a total of 12 

percent of the total basal area percentage per hectare. In 

general, there is a high variability between all the species with respect to age (14-126 years), diameter (5-65.4 

cm) and height (2.2-22.4 m). This high variability in age, 

height, and diameter of the species is due to the fact of 

the mixed and uneven-aged stand.

Diameter Distribution

In order to determine the diametric distribution applicable to all species we used the Weibull distribution, 

which is frequently observed in young even-aged stands 

before the first thinning, and in age-varied forests (Laar 

and Akca1997), but it was observed that in its natural 

state, the forest showed a bimodal type distribution, resulting in a typical structure with two subpopulations. In 

table 2 it is demonstrated that Abies vejari, Pseudotsuga 

menziesii and Pinus hartwegii present a higher number 

of individuals in the minor categories. However, Pinus 

hartwegii shows a similar bimodal distribution, as much 

in the minor as well as in the major diametric categories. 

It is important to note that at the site level, 73 percent 

of the trees are located in the lower strata and only 27 

percent of them in the higher strata. This demonstrates 

a clear bimodal distribution.

This study employed a method for describing bimodal 

diametric distributions using estimates of a maximum 

and minimum stand diameter (Hessenmöller and Gadow 

2000). Thus, for the mixed conifer forest the following 

bimodal Weibull distribution ensues:

ƒ(x)=g*ƒu

(x)+(1-g)*ƒ0(x)

Where ƒu(x) and ƒ0(x) describe the respective diametric 

functions regarding the higher and lower forest strata and 

g is the linking parameter between both functions.

Figure 2 shows the Weibull distribution of the four 

species found in the study area. It is observed that there 

exists a good adjustment of the bimodal Weibull distribution in the diametric categories.

It was observed that the method employed by 

Hessenmöller and Gadow (2000) showed a greater 

precision when the parameters of distribution were calculated separately, equally for the upper as well as the 

lower strata. By using the diametric bimodal Weibull 

distribution method, we concluded that the forest proved 

to be uneven-aged and mixed, presenting two strata in 

vertical structure.

Crown Analysis

Following the diametric analysis, it proceeded to separate the trees into Height Zones. The study site was divided 

into two strata: Height Zone I and Height Zone II. Table 4 

shows the trees by species and by Height Zones, 75 percent 

Table 1. Size structure of the uneven-aged stand per hectare.

Basal Area Diameter 

Tree species Age (years) N stems (m2

) (cm) Height (m)

Abies vejari 32 120 1.86 12.5 7.9

Pseudotsuga menziesii 38 102 3.65 17.1 8.9

Pinus ayacahuite 40 124 5.10 18.8 8.1

Pinus hartwegii 51 60 4.62 26.5 10.6

Stand 38 406 15.10 17.6 8.6

Table 2. Tree distribution in relation to two diametric categories.

Diametric Category Diametric Category 

Tree species 5- 20 cm >21 cm Total

Abies vejari 133 16 149

Pseudotsuga menziesii 97 29 126

Pinus ayacahuite 107 47 154

Pinus hartwegii 33 42 75

Total 370 134 504
652 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

(376) corresponding to the individuals in Height Zone II, 

and only 25 percent (128) in Height Zone I.

In the predominant and dominant trees stratum (Height 

Zone I), Pinus ayacahuite and Pinus hartwegii show a 

remarkable similarity in their stem dimensions (d, h, 

t). With respect to the relation dbh/h, we observed that 

they present a lower value (41-42), which is evidence 

of the stability of the species in this site. Abies vejari 

and Pseudotsuga menziesii show a greater variability in 

their dendrometrical parameters, as well as an increase 

in their stabilizing values (51-61). This is due to the fact 

that they are shade-tolerant species, and for this reason 

their development is slower in their primary phases and 

with greater competition, which is why a positive stable 

relationship does not exist. However, in Height Zone 

II, the shade-tolerant species show a greater similarity 

in diameter, height, and age values, thus observing a 

greater stability.

The definition of the base of the live crown is important to calculate the crown length, crown percentage, 

crown thickness index and crown surface area. In this 

case, the base of the live crown was defined as the height 

of the last live branch. Table 3 shows in a global way 

that, in the upper stratum, the crown percentage covers 

53 percent of the tree, while in the lower stratum it covers 

73 percent. At a species level, it was observed in Height 

Zone I that crown percentage decreases while the age 

increases (Pinus hartwegii t = 73; CR% = 45 percent, 

Abies vejari t = 47; CR% = 62). This is due to the fact 

that crown percentage decreases while the tree keeps 

growing. However, in Height Zone II there exists a great 

similarity between the age (28-31 years) and CR% (71-

78 percent) values, presenting no difference between the 

species because they are located underneath the canopy 

of Height Zone I.

In order to characterize the light crown length (LCL) 

the height of the widest part of the crown was measured, 

and to calculate the light crown percentage (LCP%) a 

relation between the light crown length and the crown 

length (LCP%=100*LCL/

CL) was performed. In general, 

there is no differentiation of the LCP% (75 percent) between the two Height Zones. At the species level, Abies 

vejari presents the highest LCP% (I = 96 percent; II = 

90 percent), meaning, practically, that a high percentage of the light crown belongs to the complete crown. 

Pseudotsuga menziesii also presents a high percentage of 

light crown (87 percent). This is explained if we consider 

that both species are tolerant to light. However, in both 

pine species, there exists a lesser percentage of LCP%

(I = 60-67 percent; II = 61-65 percent).

Figure 2. Bimodal Weibull distribution for Abies vejari, Pseudostuga menziesii, Pinus hartwegii, and Pinus 

ayacahuite.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 653

Conclusions

In accordance with the heterogeneous structure of 

this mixed and uneven-aged stand, it was observed that 

there is a great variability in stem dimensions and crown 

parameters, not only at a site level, but also in the species that are found in the ecosystem. Abies vejari is the 

species showing the lowest average age (32 years) and 

Pinus hartwegii is the one presenting the highest average 

age (51 years). Despite this, Pinus ayacahuite shows a 

wider dispersion range (15-126), which indicates that 

the ecosystem is uneven-aged. In turn, Pinus hartwegii

is considered the one having the widest average diameter 

(55 cm), but Pseudotsuga menziesii has the widest range 

of variability (CV%=77.2 percent). Regarding the greatest height, Pinus hartwegii holds 10.6 m on average, and 

a range that varies between 2.3-22.4 m.

A large discrepancy was observed in tree distribution 

per species. The shade-tolerant species - Abies vejari and 

Pseudotsuga menziesii - respectively 74 percent and 66 

percent of their individuals in the 10 cm diametric categories; while the light-tolerant species – Pinus ayacahuite

and Pinus hartwegii – have only a 55 percent and 47 

percent of their trees in this diametrical category.

There is a bimodal type Weibull distribution for the 

tree species of the ecosystem. Abies vejari, Pseudotsuga 

menziesii and Pinus ayacahuite show a higher slope in 

the curve in the first diametric categories, due to a greater 

amount of trees, while Pinus hartwegii shows a similar 

tendency among the higher and lower diametric categories, which results in a similar curve slope. In general, it 

is observed that there is a good adjustment in the bimodal 

Weibull distribution for all species.

One of the important objectives in this investigation 

was the analysis of the crown parameters. Towards 

this end, the crown diameter, light crown length, and 

Table 3. Stand crown characteristics according to the height zone.

Species n (ítem) dbh (cm) h (m) t (year) dbh/h CL (m) CR% LCP (m) LCP%

Height Zone I (predominant and dominant trees)

Abies vejari 21 23.9 13. 47 61 8.4 62 8.2 96

Pseudotsuga menziesii 35 33.6 15.2 63 51 8.9 58 7.9 87

Pinus ayacahuite 33 39.3 15.5 72 42 8.2 53 4.9 60

Pinus hartwegii 39 39.6 15.3 73 41 6.7 45 4.4 67

Strata 128 35.3 15.2 66 47 8.0 53 6.1 75

Abies vejari 128 10.7 6.9 29 68 4.9 72 4.3 90

Height Zone II (suppressed trees)

Pseudotsuga menziesii 91 10.8 6.5 28 67 4.8 76 3.6 75

Pinus ayacahuite 121 13.2 6.1 31 50 4.2 71 2.8 65

Pinus hartwegii 36 12.2 5.6 28 50 4.2 78 2.6 61

Strata 376 11.7 6.4 29 58 4.6 73 3.5 75

CL= Crown length, CR%= Crown percent, LCP= Light crown length, LCP%= Light crown percent.

the base of the crown defined as the height of the last 

live branch, were used. With these variables, the crown 

indexes were defined: crown length, crown percentage, 

light crown length, and light crown percentage. It was 

concluded from tables 4 and 5 that there exists a great 

heterogeneity in the values corresponding to the crown 

indexes in Height Zone I and Height Zone II; the discrepancy among the species within each of Height Zones 

is even greater.

The final conclusion of this study is that uneven-aged, 

mixed forests present a specific structure, in accordance 

with its stem parameters, diameter distribution, and 

crown parameters and indexes, proving that this evaluation methodology can be reliably used. These tree crown 

structure indicators have a high value in forest ecosystem 

management, where the forest structure is considered a 

high priority.

Acknowledgments

This study was financially supported by the Consejo 

Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología, México, through the 

project “Caracterización Estructural del Estrato Arbóreo 

en Bosques Multicohortales del Norte de México: 33919–

B” and Universidad Autónoma de Nuevo León.

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Introduction

The Central Hardwood Region is a unique forest 

region in the United States, encompassing 340 million 

acres of land, of which 100 million acres are forested 

(Parker 1993). The region contains one-fourth of the U.S. 

population, with approximately 90 percent of the land 

in private ownership (Parker 1993). In general, private 

forested lands in the Central Hardwood Region tend to 

be small, non-industrial forests with little forest management (Nyland 1992). The tendency of non-industrial 

private forest (NIPF) landowners to eschew professional 

guidance when managing their forests is cause for concern. The sustainability of Central Hardwood Region 

forests with regards to economic, environmental, and 

social benefits may depend on educating and encouraging 

NIPF landowners to seek professional forest management advice.

The most difficult part of the decision making process 

often lies in identifying and choosing goals. Since the 

purpose of modern forest management is to achieve diverse landowner goals, reasoned management cannot be 

practiced without those goals (Wang and others 2002). 

Private landowners have many interests pertaining to 

their lands; they may be interested in increasing the value 

of timber production, producing better wildlife habitat 

or creating aesthetically pleasing forests. In all cases, 

management options are available to the landowner to 

increase or decrease the inherent value of 

the forest relative to a particular goal. We 

created a decision support tool designed 

to assist private landowners in identifying 

management goals based upon probable 

outcomes and impacts associated with forest 

management decisions.

As a general rule, existing forest management tools are technical and complex. In 

designing a new tool for NIPF landowners, 

we wanted to keep the tool relatively simple 

while ensuring compatibility with existing 

tools. To this end, a transition pathway 

model was developed using three traditional 

variables to describe the main structural 

characteristics of a forest stand: type, size, and density. 

The transition pathway model predicts the probability of 

the current stand transitioning to a new Type-Size-Density 

class given various forest management treatments. Most 

NIPF landowners are not aware how Type-Size-Density 

variables relate to their management interests. Thus, several forest attributes were assigned qualitative values for 

each Type-Size-Density class describing the suitability 

of that class for specific commodity and non-commodity 

resource uses. The assigned qualitative attributes were 

designed to give the NIPF landowner a greater appreciation for different attribute potentials while describing 

likely structural changes from different management 

decisions. An option-based decision support tool was 

then developed based on the transition pathway model 

and forest resource attributes. A complete description of 

the project can be found in Larson (2004).

Option-based decision tools provide a series of options 

given the initial conditions, describe the options, and 

provide a number of metrics to rate the options against 

each other. However, there is a dearth of simple optionbased forest decision tools (but see Marquis and Ernst 

1992, Twery and others 2000). Our underlying premise is 

that many landowners may have trouble stating specific 

goals for their land; but, if presented with a number of 

options, landowners would have little trouble choosing 

between them. The attributes assigned to each Type-SizeDensity class provide the landowner with the means to 

Development of a Transition Pathway Model Using Three 

Traditional Variables to Describe the Main Structural 

Characteristics of a Forest Stand Type, Size, and Density

Chad Larson

Table 1. The Type, Size, and Density variables defined by the categories for 

each variable and a brief description of each category.

Variable Category Description

Typea White Oak White oak species group is dominant

Red Oak Red oak species group is dominant

Pine Pine species group is dominant

Other Hardwood All other species group is dominant

Mixed No species group is dominant

Size Sapling Less than 6 inches DBH

Pole 6 to 10 inches DBH

Sawlog Greater than 10 inches DBH

Density High Greater than 750 trees per acre

Medium 250 to 750 trees per acre

Low Less than 250 trees per acre

a Species group dominance is defined as >40% relative dominance by basal area.
656 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

evaluate management options using the criteria deemed 

most important by the landowner. Landowners may then 

proceed to existing forest growth models and decision 

tools with a clear understanding of their own desires and 

goals, as well as knowledge of the effect professional 

management may have on their forest.

Methods

Transition Pathway Model

Study area

The study area consisted of the St. Francis River 

and Black River Watersheds, located in southeastern 

Missouri. Both watersheds were chosen because over 

90 percent of the land area is forested. Combined, the 

watersheds encompass ~1.75 million acres and include portions of St. 

Francois, Madison, Iron, Reynolds, 

Wayne, Carter, Ripley and Butler counties (fig. 1).

Data sources

The primary presupposition made 

in designing the decision support tool 

was that a simple model with easily 

defined variables was the best method 

for fulfilling the purpose of the study. 

However, in order to prevent placing 

unnecessary limits on the possible applications of the tool, the underlying 

model was based on simulations run on 

the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS), 

a standard forest growth and yield 

model of the U.S. Forest Service (Stage 

1973, Wykoff and others 1982).

Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) 

data (Miles and others 2001) from 1987 

and 1988 (582 plots) were input into 

FVS. FIA data and FVS simulation 

output were summarized into three variables: Type, Size, and Density. Within 

a stand, Type refers to the dominant 

tree species group, Size refers to the 

average tree diameter at breast height 

(DBH), and Density refers to the 

number of trees per acre (TPA). The 

species groups for Type were based on 

oak dominance in the study area and 

the economic importance of oak and 

pine species in Missouri. Categories 

for the Type variable species groups 

were White Oak, Red Oak, Pine, Other Hardwood, and 

Mixed species. A species group was considered dominant 

if the relative dominance by basal area was >40 percent. 

Quadratic mean diameter was used to create three Size 

categories: Sapling (<6” DBH), Pole (6”-10” DBH), and 

Sawlog (>10” DBH). Size categories were based on industry standards and professional expertise. Density was 

also classified into three categories: Low (<250 TPA), 

Medium (250-750 TPA), and High (>750 TPA). The 

Density categories were chosen after initial analysis of 

the FIA data and were based on professional expertise.

The FIA plots were grown in FVS using the Suppose 

graphical user interface (Crookston 1997, Dixon 2003). 

Plots were grown using the following management options: no treatment, thinning from below, and diameter 

limit cut. Predictions were limited to 20 years, which is 

long enough for potential forest change and short enough 

Figure 1. The study area in southeastern Missouri as defined using USGS 8-digit 

hydrologic units (Seaber 1984).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 657

for landowners to retain a vested interest in the land. For 

the No Treatment option, FIA plots were grown in FVS 

with no management treatment. The Thinning From 

Below and Diameter Limit Cut management options 

used FVS predefined management treatments: “thinning from below” to a basal area target of 55 ft2

/acre 

(Thinning From Below) and “thinning from above” to 

a desired diameter of 10 inches DBH with 100 percent 

removal (Diameter Limit Cut). All management options 

conducted the management prescription at year zero and 

then grew the sample plot for 20 years with no further 

management activity.

Transition pathways

The transition pathway model was built to predict 

the probability of an initial Type-Size-Density class 

transitioning to a new Type-Size-Density class. Based on 

categories defining the Type-Size-Density variables, all 

possible combinations of variables were developed (table 

2); however, the large number of Type-Size-Density 

classes created an overly complex model with insufficient 

data to support the development of a full transition matrix. Therefore, transition pathways were designed based 

on two assumptions for the No Treatment option. First, it 

was assumed that the dominant species group (Type) at 

year zero would have a low probability of changing in 20 

years, thus all transitions to a different Type were combined into the same probability class of “other.” Second, 

it was assumed that Size and Density were negatively 

correlated; thus, over 20 years, the plots would tend to 

grow larger in diameter (Size increases) while becoming 

smaller in density (Density decreases).

A matrix was created for each management option 

with the initial classes (year 0) in rows and counts of the 

transition classes (year 20) in columns. Transition probabilities were calculated by dividing the count for each 

transition class by the total number of plots in the initial 

class. The transition pathways were then created by collating the initial classes by Type category, keeping intact 

all transition class probabilities of the initial Type, and 

combining all transition class probabilities for new Type 

categories into a new probability class called “other.”

Model testing

Model testing consisted of verifying that the transition pathway model predictions were consistent with the 

FVS model being summarized. Test plots were selected 

from FIA plots outside the study area but within the 

same FIA survey unit. Ten test plots were chosen for 

each Type-Size-Density class using a random number 

generator (even distribution from 0 to 1), except in 

those classes with ≤10 samples. Data were grown in 

FVS, Type-Size-Density classes of initial test data and 

resulting FVS output were calculated, and results were 

compared to predictions of the transition pathway model. 

The chi-square goodness of fit test (Zar 1999) was used 

to determine if a significant difference existed between 

the actual FVS output classes and the predicted transition classes (all α = 0.05). Two methods were used to 

determine if a significant difference existed between 

the FVS test results and the transition pathway model 

predictions. First, the chi-square value was compared 

to the appropriate critical value. Second, the test plots 

used to calculate the chi-square value were analyzed to 

determine if any plots transitioned to a class that was not 

predicted by the model.

Table 2. Combined Type-Size-Density classes. Blue font 

indicates classes not used in the building of the transition 

pathway model.

Class Type Size Density n

1 White Oak Sapling High 37

2 White Oak Sapling Med 94

3 White Oak Sapling Low 3

4 White Oak Pole High 0

5 White Oak Pole Med 20

6 White Oak Pole Low 15

7 White Oak Sawlog High 0

8 White Oak Sawlog Med 0

9 White Oak Sawlog Low 5

10 Red Oak Sapling High 31

11 Red Oak Sapling Med 99

12 Red Oak Sapling Low 1

13 Red Oak Pole High 0

14 Red Oak Pole Med 31

15 Red Oak Pole Low 8

16 Red Oak Sawlog High 0

17 Red Oak Sawlog Med 0

18 Red Oak Sawlog Low 5

19 Pine Sapling High 11

20 Pine Sapling Med 9

21 Pine Sapling Low 1

22 Pine Pole High 0

23 Pine Pole Med 3

24 Pine Pole Low 3

25 Pine Sawlog High 0

26 Pine Sawlog Med 0

27 Pine Sawlog Low 1

28 Other Hardwood Sapling High 35

29 Other Hardwood Sapling Med 69

30 Other Hardwood Sapling Low 5

31 Other Hardwood Pole High 0

32 Other Hardwood Pole Med 8

33 Other Hardwood Pole Low 4

34 Other Hardwood Sawlog High 0

35 Other Hardwood Sawlog Med 0

36 Other Hardwood Sawlog Low 2

37 Mixed Sapling High 21

38 Mixed Sapling Med 36

39 Mixed Sapling Low 1

40 Mixed Pole High 0

41 Mixed Pole Med 7

42 Mixed Pole Low 5

43 Mixed Sawlog High 0

44 Mixed Sawlog Med 0

45 Mixed Sawlog Low 0
658 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Forest Resource Attributes

A forest resource attribute describes an inherent characteristic of a forest. The complexity of analysis was 

limited by the simple model design and simple variables; 

however, we wanted to provide landowners with general 

impressions of forest potential, and for that purpose 

qualitative attribute values were defined as a function 

of Type-Size-Density.

Attributes were developed for income potential (e.g., 

sawtimber), wildlife habitat suitability (e.g., gray squirrel), and risk susceptibility (e.g., insect/disease). The 

sawtimber attribute was assigned qualitative values 

based on professional expertise and Missouri logging sale 

charts, with tree species and tree diameter influencing 

the attribute values. Gray squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis) 

habitat attributes were assigned qualitative values based 

on a habitat suitability index (HSI) model (Larson and 

others 2003), with forage and nesting cover influencing 

the attribute values. The insect/disease risk attribute was 

assigned qualitative values based on professional opinion and the work of Wargo, Houston and LaMadeleine 

(1983), with stress from competition for resources influencing the attribute values.

The first step in assigning a qualitative attribute value 

to a Type-Size-Density class was to determine which 

variable(s) was the most influential for that attribute and 

then ranking all classes on a relative scale of 1 to 9. The 

second step was to indicate the degree of confidence 

in the assigned ranking for each class. The degree of 

confidence (high, medium, low) was a measure of the 

importance of outside factors not captured by Type-SizeDensity in determining the suitability and potential of a 

particular forest for the attribute in question.

Decision Support Tool

The predictions and attributes developed in the transition pathway model were organized in a Microsoft 

Access database. A transition table was created for each 

management option containing the two largest transition probabilities for each initial class along with the 

probability of that class staying the same. The attribute 

tables in the database consisted of the relative ranking 

and degree of confidence for all classes. A table with 

representative photographs of each class was added 

to the database for additional landowner edification. A 

user interface was built in the same Microsoft Access 

database using a series of forms, command buttons, and 

macros, and was designed to provide landowners with 

a series of screens giving them the ability to choose the 

Type-Size-Density class of their forest from drop down 

menus, select management options, view attributes, and 

maneuver back and forth through the screens (fig. 2).

Results

Transition Pathway Model

Initial classes were calculated for the 582 FIA data 

plots. Analysis of initial sample counts (n) prompted the 

removal of all Size-Density combinations of SaplingLow and Pole-High classes from the database due to low 

n (table 2). In addition, Sawlog classes and plots containing no live trees were removed. The 546 remaining 

FIA data plots were used to build the transition pathway 

model predictions.

The White Oak category included 166 sample plots. 

The transition pathway probabilities (table 3) affirmed 

the assumptions made for the No Treatment management 

option; the White Oak, No Treatment management option demonstrated that Size and Density were negatively 

correlated and Type at year zero had a low probability of 

changing in 20 years. The largest sample size for White 

Oak, White Oak-Sapling-Medium (class 2), was 94 plots 

and only 7.4 percent of the plots changed Type, while 

Figure 2. Design logic of the user interface for the decision 

support tool.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 659

78.7 percent changed Size to White Oak-Pole-Medium 

(class 5). The No Treatment transition pathway for White 

Oak is illustrated in figure 3.

The No Treatment management options for Red Oak, 

Pine, and Other Hardwood followed similar patterns as 

White Oak and further affirmed the assumptions made in 

the design of the transition pathways; the Sapling classes 

in particular showed strong probabilities to increase in 

Size, Density, or both, while showing low probabilities 

of changing Type. However, the Mixed category averaged >30 percent probability of changing Type. This 

tendency was expected due to the lack of a dominant 

species group in the Mixed category and is consistent 

with forest stand dynamics theory, as competition for 

resources allows tree species with a competitive edge to 

achieve dominance over time.

The Thinning From Below management option 

showed a stronger tendency for classes to change Type 

than the No Treatment option (White Oak example, table 

3), with the exception of the Red Oak category. Thinning 

proscriptions were carried out in FVS with no regard to 

tree species; thus, the dominance of tree species groups 

(Type) was potentially shifted at year zero. Any shifts 

were then exaggerated over the 20 year simulation, resulting in the stronger tendency to change Type.

The Diameter Limit Cut management option generally 

showed an even stronger tendency for classes to change 

Type than the Thinning From Below option (White 

Oak example, table 3), with the exception of the Other 

Hardwood category. Harvesting the largest trees in a 

stand at year zero had an even greater potential to shift 

tree species group dominance than thinning.

Model Validation

The chi-square goodness of fit test was conducted 84 

times and used 255 test plots. The White Oak and Red 

Oak classes were tested twice each with replacement. In 

total, 31 of the 84 tests (37 percent) 

were significantly different from the 

transition pathway model predictions 

(White Oak results, table 4). Each 

management option had 28 tests, with 

all three options showing <40 percent 

significant difference. Of the 31 tests 

that showed a significant difference, 

23 were significantly different due to 

one or more test plot transitions having a predicted transition probability 

of zero, while only 8 (10 percent of 

total) were significantly different due 

to the chi-square value being greater 

than the critical value. Analyzing the 

chi-square tests by Type shows that 

Table 3. Transition pathway probabilities (in percent) for the White Oak category.

Transition Classa (percent)

Management Treatment Initial Classa 1 2 3 5 6 9 Other

No Treatment 1 10.8 29.7 0.0 51.4 0.0 0.0 8.1

2 0.0 8.5 1.1 78.7 4.3 0.0 7.4

 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 35.0 15.0 0.0

6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 46.7 20.0

Thinning From Below 1 0.0 13.5 0.0 10.8 5.4 40.5 29.7

2 0.0 7.4 1.1 17.0 14.9 48.9 10.6

 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 65.0 25.0

6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.3 66.7 20.0

Diameter Limit Cut 1 8.1 45.9 0.0 21.6 0.0 0.0 24.3

2 0.0 26.6 2.1 44.7 3.2 0.0 23.4

 5 0.0 0.0 5.0 20.0 30.0 0.0 45.0

6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 40.0 6.7 53.3

a

 The Type-Size-Density classes are: 1-White Oak-Sapling-High, 2-White Oak-Sapling-Medium, 3-White OakSapling-Low, 5-White Oak-Pole-Medium, 6-White Oak-Pole-Low, 9-White Oak-Sawlog-Low.

Figure 3. Transition pathway for the White Oak Type category.
660 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Pine and Red Oak transition pathways were the weakest 

with 58 percent and 54 percent significantly different, 

respectively. The Other Hardwood transition pathway 

had 42 percent significantly different. The White Oak 

and Mixed transition pathways were the best with both 

having only 17 percent significantly different.

Forest Resource Attributes

The most influential variable for sawtimber was Size, 

with the Sawlog category receiving the highest ranking (table 5). The highest value sawtimber species in 

Missouri are oaks and pines, and thus the Sawlog classes 

for White Oak, Red Oak, and Pine received the highest 

ranking of 9. However, the confidence for the ranking 

of 9 was assigned as Low due to the Type-Size-Density 

variables being unable to take into account the quality 

and grade of lumber. The classes for Other Hardwood 

and Mixed were ranked slightly lower than the White 

Oak, Red Oak, and Pine across all classes.

The most influential variable for gray squirrel species 

was Size, as related to forage and nesting (table 4). Hard 

mast production and nesting habitat were considered 

highest in the Sawlog classes, particularly for White Oak 

and Red Oak. The confidence values for the best gray 

squirrel habitats were high due to forage and nesting 

requirements being met by the same classes of forest.

Insect/disease risk was most influenced by Density 

combined with Size (table 4). Competition for moisture 

and nutrients was the main factor increasing tree susceptibility to insect/disease. The confidence levels assigned 

were Low to Medium due to the importance of landscape 

position, frost injury, and drought.

Conclusion

The decision support tool was based on the idea of 

producing a simple forest growth model capable of predicting forest change while providing descriptive forest 

resource attributes to assist forest landowners in developing management goals. The additional goal, to maintain 

compatibility between the developed simple forest 

growth model and existing models, was a major design 

consideration. A transition pathway model utilizing the 

three traditional variables, Type, Size, and Density, was 

designed and tested for compatibility against the FVS 

model on which it was based.

The management treatments used (No Treatment, 

Thinning From Below, and Diameter Limit Cut) all 

produced differing transition pathways showing that 

the model design is capable of capturing select effects 

of forest management. The No Treatment scenario 

showed that as trees grow larger in size, stand density 

goes down, and the dominant tree species group (Type), 

once established, is unlikely to change in 20 years. 

The Thinning From Below scenario demonstrated that 

trees grow larger more rapidly when competition for 

resources is eased. The Diameter Limit Cut scenario 

demonstrated that the forest stand will continue to 

grow and transition after management actions have 

been taken; however, the Diameter Limit Cut scenario 

also demonstrated that removing the largest trees in a 

forest stand does not guarantee replacement by similar 

species.

The transition pathway model was reasonably compatible with the FVS model. Over 60 percent of all 

Table 4. Results of the predicted White Oak transition pathway model chi-square tests.

Management Treatment Classa n χ2 Test 1 χ2 Test 2 Critical Value

No Treatment 1 10 2.721 0.061 7.815

2 10 1.503 0.601 7.815

 5 10 * * 5.991

6 10 0.046 3.153 5.991

Thinning From Below 1 10 2.297 4.232 9.488

2 10 1.276 3.440 11.07

 5 10 1.138 1.138 5.991

6 10 0.450 2.796 5.991

Diameter Limit Cut 1 10 1.003 8.207 7.815

2 10 0.950 1.994 9.488

 5 10 1.500 4.222 7.815

6 10 * 2.019 5.991

a

 The Type-Size-Density classes are: 1-White Oak-Sapling-High, 2-White Oak-Sapling-Medium, 5-White 

Oak-Pole-Medium, 6-White Oak-Pole-Low.

* - Indicates one or more observed test plots transitioned to a Class that was not predicted in the study 

area.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 661

Table 5. Qualitative values assigned to forest resource attributes.

Sawtimber Gray Squirrel Insect/Diseasea

Class	 Rank	 Confidence	 Rank	 Confidence	 Rank Confidence

1 1 High 1 High 1 High

2 1 High 1 High 1 High

5 4 Med 6 Med 4 Low

6 4 Med 6 Med 3 Med

9 9 Low 9 High 4 Med

10 1 High 1 High 2 High

11 1 High 1 High 2 High

14 4 Med 6 Med 5 Low

15 4 Med 6 Med 4 Med

18 9 Low 9 High 6 Low

19 1 High 1 High 1 High

20 1 High 1 High 1 High

23 4 Med 4 Med 4 High

24 4 Med 4 Med 3 High

27 9 Low 6 Med 5 Med

28 1 High 1 High 1 Med

29 1 High 1 High 1 Med

32 3 Med 4 Low 5 Low

33 3 Med 4 Low 4 Low

36 8 Low 6 Low 5 Low

37 1 High 1 High 1 High

38 1 High 1 High 1 High

41 3 Med 3 Low 3 Med

42 3 Med 4 Low 3 Med

45 7 Low 6 Low 4 Med

a

Higher rankings for Insect/Disease indicate the class is at greater risk.

chi-square tests showed no significant difference from 

the model predictions. Of the 31 tests showing a significant difference, 23 were due to one or more test plots 

transitioning to a Type-Size-Density class that was not 

predicted by the transition pathway model (prediction = 

0.0 percent). However, no model can predict all transitions for every possible forest combination, and the 

number of significantly different results is acceptable 

for this type of model.

The forest resource attributes captured the general 

aspects of forest potential. The simple model design 

limited the amount of information that could be shown 

using attributes; however, when taken with the descriptive explanations in the decision tool, landowners have 

access to knowledge of forest potential that is capable of 

aiding in the development of management goals.

The decision support tool software, as currently developed, will provide landowners with the means to predict 

forest change, analyze forest resource potential, and aid in 

the development of management goals. Overall, the decision support tool is designed largely for NIPF landowner 

education and information. Future developments will 

seek to expand management options and forest attributes, 

produce an internet based version, apply the methodology 

to data sets from different geographical 

regions, and distribute the software to 

federal and state agencies for use with 

landowner consultations.

References

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to the Forest Vegetation Simulator. pp. 7-14. in 

R. Teck, M. Moeur, and J. Adams, compilers. 

Proceedings: Forest Vegetation Simulator conference, 1997 February 3-7, Fort Collins, CO.

Dixon, G. E. 2003. Essential FVS: a user’s guide 

to the Forest Vegetation Simulator. Internal 

Rep. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Forest Management 

Service Center. 193 p.

Larson, C. J. 2004. Modeling forest transition 

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Introduction

Sustainability is increasingly a focus of national and 

international attention in terms of dialogue, monitoring, 

research, development, and policy (Sayer and Campbell 

2003). However, recognition of the importance of sustainability is not new—indeed, it is as old as human 

societies themselves (Diamond 1999). Over the past 50 

years, many advances have been made in our understanding of the limitations and sensitivities of the biosphere, 

and in our use of technology to minimize detrimental 

effects of human activities on the environment. The 

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural 

Organization’s (UNESCO) Man and the Biosphere 

(MAB) program, founded over 30 years ago, is an example of a significant international effort to enhance 

and promote sustainability, and it has made significant 

contributions toward this goal, both in the U.S. and 

throughout many countries around the world. Much has 

changed since the 1970s, most significantly being that 

human populations have increased by approximately 50 

percent, from 4 billion to 6 billon people globally, and 

similarly from 200 million to 300 million in the United 

States (U.S. Census Bureau 2004). As we begin a new 

millennium, it seems prudent to take stock of U.S. MAB’s 

past accomplishments, operational short-comings, 

Biodiversity Conservation, Sustainable Development, 

and the U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program: Past 

Contributions and Future Directions

P. N. Manley, Research Wildlife Biologist and Technical Assistant to U.S. MAB Coordinator, 

U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research Station, Davis, CA

D. C. Hayes is the National Program Leader for Watershed Research and U.S. MAB 

Coordinator, USDA Forest Service, Washington D.C.

Abstract—U.S. Man and the Biosphere (MAB) Program is part of the United Nations 

Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) MAB program, and is 

one of six regional MAB programs that span the globe. The MAB Program was created 

in 1971 with the goal to explore, demonstrate, promote, and encourage harmonious 

relationships between people and their environments. Biosphere reserve networks are a 

primary vehicle for accomplishing MAB goals and serve four basic functions: 1) conserve 

biodiversity, 2) demonstrate sustainable development approaches, 3) support research 

and monitoring related to local, national, and global issues of conservation and sustainable development, and 4) build social capacity for sustainable development through 

education and training. The U.S. network, established in 1976, consists of 47 biosphere 

reserves that represent a diversity of ecosystems. The U.S. MAB program is in a period 

of reflection and revitalization as it nears 30 years of commitment and contribution 

to biological diversity conservation and sustainable development. Major accomplishments of the U.S. MAB program have been through many different institutions, such 

as the Information Center for the Environment’s (ICE) development of a biodiversity 

database that serves to document species occurrences for protected areas around the 

world (www.ice.ucdavis.edu), the development of the monitoring and assessment of 

biodiversity program research and education activities by the Smithsonian Institution 

(www.nationalzoo.si.edu/conservationandscience/MAB), and Southern Appalachian 

MAB program’s exemplary achievements in promoting environmental health and stewardship in natural and cultural ecosystems in the Southern Appalachian mountains. 

Future emphasis areas for the U.S. MAB program include refreshed operating principles 

based on a model of integrated human and natural ecosystems, enhanced networking 

capabilities among reserves within the U.S. and around the world, innovative advances 

in global change monitoring, sustainability research, and education at U.S. biosphere 

reserves, and accelerated development of solutions to key challenges to sustainability.
664 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

current and future opportunities, and pressing priorities 

to sharpen its focus and continue its insightful offerings 

to tomorrow’s sustainability challenges.

MAB Program Fundamentals

The MAB Program was launched in 1971 to facilitate 

intergovernmental cooperation in promoting harmonious 

relationships between people and their environments. As 

such, MAB was the first deliberate international initiative 

to work toward sustainable development. Specifically, the 

goals of the MAB program are to: (1) foster the rational 

use and conservation of the resources of the biosphere 

and the improvement of the global relationship between 

man and the environment; and (2) to predict the consequences of today’s actions on tomorrow’s world and 

thereby increase man’s ability to manage efficiently the 

natural resources of the biosphere. U.S. MAB Program 

is one of six regional MAB programs in 97 countries that 

span the globe (UNESCO 2003). The United States was 

one of the first countries to establish a national MAB 

organization and begin establishing biosphere reserves as 

part of a national network. The United States is a member 

of the regional EuroMAB program, along with 30 other 

countries in Europe and North America. The objective of 

the U.S. MAB program mirrors those of the international 

MAB program with an added emphasis on a balance 

between social and ecological systems, “To demonstrate 

and advance a sustainable balance between conserving 

biological diversity and promoting human development 

while maintaining associated cultural values” [www.

euromab.org/general_information/geninfo.html].

The U.S. MAB program consists of three primary components: a National Committee, Research 

Directorates, and a Biosphere Reserve Network. The 

National Committee is comprised of a diversity of 

entities, including federal agencies, academic institutions, and non-governmental institutions. The National 

Committee provides national direction for all aspects 

of the program, such as the establishment of research 

directorates, allocation of funds and resources to biosphere reserves, international relations, and fund raising. 

Research directorates are pivotal positions designated to 

promote focused research and education to further our 

understanding of ecosystem sustainability and speed 

the development, availability, and application of key 

information, useful tools, and effective practices. Five 

research directorates were established: temperate ecosystems, high latitude ecosystems, marine and coastal 

ecosystems, tropical ecosystems, and human-dominated 

ecosystems.

Biosphere reserve networks are the primary landbased vehicle for accomplishing MAB objectives and 

serve three basic functions: 1) conservation - contribute 

to the conservation of landscapes, ecosystems, species, 

and genetic variation; 2) development – foster economic 

and human development which is socio-culturally and 

ecologically sustainable; and 3) logistic support - support for demonstration projects, environmental education 

and training, research and monitoring related to local, 

regional and global issues of conservation and sustainable development (UNESCO 1995). UNESCO criteria 

for establishing a biosphere reserve are as follows: (1) 

contain a mosaic of ecological systems representative of 

a major biogeographic region, including a gradation of 

human influences; (2) contain areas significant for biodiversity conservation; (3) offer opportunities to explore 

and demonstrate approaches to sustainable development 

on a regional scale; 4) extend over an appropriately 

sized area to serve the first three functions; 5) identify 

appropriate zones (core, buffer and transition) to accomplish functions; 6) establish an organizational structure 

that provides for the involvement and participation of a 

range of authorities, communities, and interests; and 7) 

plans, programs, and policies that support the functions 

and activities of the biosphere reserve (UNESCO 1995). 

Biosphere reserves are intended to have three zones delineated: (1) one or more core areas, consisting of legally 

protected area(s) managed to sustain indigenous biota 

and natural processes; (2) a buffer zone, consisting of a 

legally or administratively established area that typically 

adjoins or surrounds the core area; and (3) a transition 

area, which surrounds the core area and buffer zone and 

supports a variety of resource uses and human activities 

characteristic of the larger region (fig. 1).

Figure 1. Three management zones associated with biosphere 

reserves (from UNESCO).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 665

Highlights of U.S. MAB 

Contributions

Overall, UNESCO views MAB as instrumental in 

helping to reconciling conflicts between conservation and 

resource use by contributing to a more in-depth understanding of social-ecological interactions, and developing 

tools and techniques that can be used to implement 

ecosystem approaches promoted by Convention on 

Biological Diversity [www.biodiv.org]. The U.S. MAB 

program has made significant contributions to these ends 

in conserving biological diversity and promoting sustainable development in the U.S. and around the globe. Its 

contributions have taken a multitude of forms and have 

been accomplished through many different institutions.

Throughout the tenure of the U.S. MAB program, 

individual biosphere reserves have made a plethora of 

research, inventory, monitoring, and education contributions to local, regional, and international communities. 

In 1995, stellar contributions of 12 biosphere reserves 

were highlighted in U.S. MAB publication (Anonymous 

1995). The cornucopia of activities included: a symposium on bioregional biodiversity sustainability; 

coordinated research between a U.S. and French coastal 

biosphere reserve on ecological sustainability issues; a 

regional workshop to introduce local educators to the 

objectives and activities of biosphere reserve programs; 

a cooperative research program to accomplish data 

compilation, analysis, and modeling for an ecoregion; 

and a multi-agency assessment of water quality within 

a large-scale community watershed.

In the 1980s, the Smithsonian Institution, as a partner 

in the U.S. MAB program, developed their Monitoring 

and Assessment of Biodiversity program (www.nationalzoo.si.edu/conservationandscience/MAB). The mission 

of the program is to enable the implementation of biodiversity monitoring projects and to inform adaptive 

management planning around the world. Over its nearly 

20 years of operation, this program has made substantial 

advances in research, development, and education in the 

arenas of biodiversity inventory and monitoring. For 

example, they offer formal educational opportunities in 

the form of intensive courses in biodiversity assessment 

and monitoring, and environmental leadership. They also 

have an active research program in over 10 locations 

around the world that strives to accomplish four main 

objectives: 1) test and implement protocols for long-term, 

multi-taxa monitoring of forests; 2) establish biodiversity 

assessment and monitoring projects to further regional 

conservation needs; 3) provide data management and 

analytical procedures that allow rapid assessment and 

dissemination of information, and 4) coordinate the 

interactive biodiversity monitoring network to facilitate 

information exchange and dissemination, and the formation of data quality standards.

In the late 1980s, the Southern Appalachian Biosphere 

Reserve was designated, along with establishment of the 

associated Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere 

(SAMAB) program and cooperative agreement codifying 

the collaborative intentions of several agencies (ultimately 14 federal and state agencies) (Van Sickle and Turner 

2001). SAMAB’s vision is to foster a harmonious relationship between people and the Southern Appalachian 

environment. Over the course of its existence, SAMAB it 

has garnered exemplary achievements in promoting environmental health and stewardship in natural and cultural 

ecosystems in the Southern Appalachian Mountains, and 

has demonstrated the remarkable potential that biosphere 

reserves have to bring people and resources together 

to achieve shared sustainability goals and objectives. 

Southern Appalachian Biosphere Reserve consists of 

six core areas including one national park (Great Smoky 

Mountains), two research areas, a state park, and two nature preserves. One of its greatest single contributions to 

date has been to lead the acclaimed Southern Appalachian 

Assessment, which provided a detailed accounting of the 

status of the Appalachian ecosystems and identified key 

areas of concern and opportunity to meet sustainability 

objectives throughout the ecoregion (SAMAB 1996).

In the early 1990s, the Biosphere Reserve Inventory 

and Monitoring database was created to house and disseminate information on the biodiversity of biosphere 

reserves around the world. The utility and scope of the 

database eclipsed its original goal during the first decade 

of its existence to become a world-class resource as the 

Biological Inventory of the World’s Protected Areas. 

The database is currently managed by the Information 

Center for the Environment’s (ICE) at the University of 

California at Davis, and is readily accessed through the 

world wide web from any where in the world (www.ice.

ucdavis.edu).

Throughout the 1990s, research directorates administered research that addressed one or two priority 

topics areas with respect to their ecosystem types, and 

together they completed seven major research projects 

addressing pressing sustainability challenges such as 

ecosystem management approaches to achieve ecological 

sustainability south Florida wetland ecosystems, caribou 

population and management dynamics in the arctic, 

ecological and socio-economic impacts of management 

strategies for marine protected areas in three different 

oceanic areas, and the development of a land use change 

analysis system for modeling landscape-scale change 

at the ecoregional scale. In addition to large research 

projects, research directorates also distributed small 
666 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

grants to support student research projects on biosphere 

reserves.

The new millennium brought about many changes 

in the U.S. MAB program. In 2000, administration of 

the U.S. MAB program was transferred from the State 

Department to the U.S. Forest Service, and the U.S. MAB 

Secretariat and chair of the National Committee was 

conveyed to the Associate Deputy Chief for Research 

and Development in the U.S. Forest Service. The Forest 

Service has been engaged in updating the U.S. MAB 

program since 2000. In 2003, the United States rejoined 

UNESCO after a 19 year hiatus. Rejoining UNESCO 

brought with it renewed interest and optimism about 

the potential of the U.S. MAB program to continue to 

make significant contribution to sustainability challenges 

in the 21st century. The first U.S. Biosphere Reserve 

Association was also formed in 2003 (www.samab.org/

about/usbra/usbra.html). The U.S. Biosphere Reserve 

Association is a non-profit organization dedicated to 

three primary aims: 1) provide leadership and support 

for the biosphere reserves; 2) convey factual information 

about the purposes and activities of biosphere reserves; 

and 3) develop cooperation among biosphere reserves 

in North America.

The U.S. Biosphere Reserve 

Network

UNESCO regards the world network of biosphere 

reserves as MAB’s most visible asset and operation tool 

in the 21st century, and a key mechanism by which priority work on sustainability issues will be accomplished. 

Similarly in the U.S., the biosphere reserve network is 

viewed as a collection of landscape for learning that 

uniquely positions MAB to provide leadership and deliver substantive contributions toward sustainability in 

the U.S. At the global scale, external recognition for the 

unique value of the world network of biosphere reserves 

has come in the form of the prestigious Concord Award 

in 2001 from the Prince of Asturias Foundation. The 

award acknowledges its 30 years of contributions to the 

conservation of unique natural areas and associated species that are the heritage of mankind, and to opening new 

horizons of knowledge about how to protect and preserve 

ecological and cultural treasures (www.fps.es/ing/premios/galardones/galardonconcordia2001.html).

The U.S. biosphere reserve network consists of 47 biosphere reserves (fig. 2); about 60 percent were established 

Figure 2. U.S. MAB biosphere reserve network (from UNSECO).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 667

in 1976 and the remaining ones established over the following 15 years. Thirty-nine of the reserves are located 

across the contiguous U.S., with an additional four in 

Alaska, one in Hawaii, two in Puerto Rico, and one in the 

Virgin Islands. The 47 reserves span a diversity of ecosystem types, including terrestrial and marine ecosystems. 

The U.S. biosphere reserve network is unique relative to 

networks in most other countries in a number of features. 

First, unlike most of the 393 reserves in other countries, 

almost all of the reserves in the U.S. were established 

in areas that were already designated for conservation 

or research purposes (table 1). Specifically, the majority 

(> 60 percent) of the biosphere reserves in the U.S. are 

associated National Parks. USDA Experimental Forests 

are the next most prevalent association (17 percent), 

with the remainder located on a smattering of different lands, such as state forests, U.S. Fish and Wildlife 

National Wildlife Refuges, Bureau of Land Management 

Table 1. Biosphere reserves in the U.S. MAB network.

Biosphere Reserve Name	 Administrative Offices	 Number of Units

Aleutian Islands Adak, AK 1

Beaver Creek Flagstaff, AZ 1

Big Bend Big Bend, TX 1

Big Thicket Beaumont 1

California Coast Ranges Northern coast, CA 8

Carolinian-South Atlantic Coast, SC 11

Cascade Head Biosphere Corvalis, OR 1

Central Coast Biosphere Stanford, San Francisco, Stinson Beach, 14

Corte Madera, Burlingame, Glen Ellen, 

Bodega Bay, Neward, Novato, and 

Point Reyes, CA

Central Gulf Coast Plain Eastpoint, FL 1

Central Plains Ft. Collins and Nunn, CO 1

Champlain-Adirondak Ray Brook, NY and Waterbury and Rutland, VT 3

Channel Islands Santa Barbara and Ventura, CA 2

Coram Missoula, MT 1

Denali Denali, AK 1

Desert Provo, UT 1

Everglades & Dry Tortugas Homestead, FL 1

Fraser Ft. Collins, CO 1

Glacier Bay-Admiralty Island Juneau and Gustavus, AK 2

Glacier West Glacier, MT 1

Guanica Guanica, Puerto Rico 1

H.J. Andrews Corvalis, OR 1

Hawaiian Islands Hawaii and Maui, HI 2

Hubbard Brook Campton, NH 1

Isle Royale Houghton, MI 1

Jornada Las Cruces, NM 1

Konza Prairie Manhatten, KS 1

Land Between the Lakes Golden Pond, KY 1

Luquillo Rio Piedras, Puerto Rico 1

Mammath Cave Area Bowling Green, KY 1

Mojave and Colorado Deserts Palm Desert, Borrego Springs, Death Valley, 5

San Bernardino, and Twentynine Palms, CA

New Jersey Pinelands New Lisbon, NJ 1

Niwot Ridge Nederland, CO 1

Noatak Fairbanks and Kotzebue, AK 2

Olympic Port Angeles, WA 1

Organ Pipe Cactus Flagstaff and Ajo, AZ 1

Rocky Mountain Estes Park, CO 1

San Dimas Riverside, CA 1

San Joaquin Fresno, CA 1

Sequioa-Kings Canyon Three Rivers, CA 1

South Atlantic Coastal Plain Hopkins and Georgetown, SC 1

Southern Appalachian Knoxville, TN 6

Stanislaus-Tuolumne Sonora, CA 1

Three Sisters McKenzie Bridge, OR 1

Univ. of Michigan Biological Station Ann Arbor, MI 1

Virgin Islands St. John, Virgin Islands 1

Virginia Coast Nassawadox, VA 1

Yellowstone Jackson Hole, WY 1
668 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

lands, University properties, and Nature Conservancy 

properties. Thus, biosphere reserve designations did not 

increase the amount of land set aside for conservation 

in the U.S., but rather served to strengthen and broaden 

the emphasis of unit management to encompass research, 

monitoring, development, education, and demonstration 

of sustainability practices. Second, a large proportion (> 

30 percent) of reserves consists of multiple core areas (in 

other words, individual administrative units). Reserves 

with multiple units serve an important function in the 

US. MAB network because they present a complex 

administrative scenario where multiple and potentially 

conflicting mandates of various units need to be considered and management options are negotiated to best 

meet the shared objectives and individual needs of each 

unit. Thus, multiple unit reserves have some of the same 

management challenges as buffer and transition areas. 

Finally, most U.S. biosphere reserves do not have buffer 

or transition areas designated. This is largely a function of 

the reserves being based on previously designated areas 

that only consisted of core reserve areas with a single 

set of objectives. A few of the reserves (for example, 

Mammoth Cave Area Biosphere Reserve) have proposed 

zones of cooperation, which are intended to serve a similar function as buffer and transition areas.

In some respects, reserves without designated buffer 

and transition areas serve as ecological and social experiments in the value and necessity of buffer and transition 

areas in meeting the objective of maintaining biological 

diversity of core areas. The evolution of boundary designations and land management in and around Yellowstone 

National Park is a prime example. Yellowstone National 

Park was the first national park in the U.S., established 

in 1872 (USDI 2004), and it was designated as a biosphere reserve in 1976 with only the core area of the 

park designated (no buffer or transition areas). The park 

itself extends over a 900,000 ha area. The concept of a 

Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem came into being in the 

mid 1980s, driven by the recognition that many of the 

values for which the park was established were dependent upon the management of lands outside the park. As 

such, the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem was established 

to maintain the important ecological and social linkages across the headwaters of three major river systems 

– Yellowstone, Snake, and Green rivers – and thereby 

maintain ecosystem integrity, including populations of 

wide ranging species that require large landscapes to 

persist, such as grizzly bear, wolverine, lynx, and gray 

wolf. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem currently 

occupies a 7 million ha area centered on Yellowstone 

National Park, including two National Parks, portions of 

six national forests, three national wildlife refuges, BLM 

lands, state lands, and private and tribal lands (Clark 

and Minta 1994; Shullery 1995). A future review of the 

Yellowstone Biosphere Reserve is likely to conclude that 

the boundaries of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem 

function as a zone of cooperation and should be designated as such within the MAB program.

UNESCO states that biosphere reserves are to be reviewed every 10 years to evaluate their effectiveness and 

needs. Toward this end, a survey of biosphere reserves in 

the U.S. was conducted in 1995, and repeated in 2003, to 

determine their functional strengths and needs (Gilbert 

2004). The survey asked each reserve to provide their 

perspective on the state and future of U.S. biosphere reserves. Five primary questions were asked of managers: 

1) what are the management benefits to your biosphere 

reserve, 2) who is participating, 3) what resources are 

needed, 4) who identifies with the biosphere reserve 

concept, and 5) who is concerned about or opposed to the 

biosphere reserve. A number of substantive conclusions 

came from the most recent survey. Biosphere reserve 

status conferred management benefits for most reserves, 

and benefits were greatest in the areas of promoting an 

ethic of sustainability, research, public consultation 

and participation, environmental awareness, ecosystem 

management, and improved cultural resource protection. 

Academic research institutions were the most prevalent 

participants in the biosphere reserve activities, followed 

by federal agencies. Few units experienced expressions 

of concern by local communities and organizations. 

Perhaps most importantly but not surprising is that funding was the most limiting factor, followed by limited 

local involvement and infrequent communication among 

biosphere reserve managers. Without funding from the 

MAB program, the mission of units tends to shrink back 

to the core mission of the unit’s original designation, and 

most frequently that means that programs directed toward 

sustainable development atrophy. Finally, responses were 

quite similar in 1995, with some changes in the focus of 

programs. Since 1995, areas of emphasis for biosphere 

reserves have shifted from conservation and ecosystem 

management to research and education.

The ecological status of U.S. biosphere reserves has 

never been evaluated as a network. Given that most biosphere reserves are co-located with national parks, we 

consulted the results of the National Parks Conservation 

Association’s (NPCA) annual evaluation of national 

parks (www.npca.org) as a small window into their status. 

Every year the NPCA identified the 10 most endangered 

National Parks out of the 387 units designated in the 

National Park system. In 2003, 5 of the 10 most endangered National Parks are also biosphere reserves (Big 

Thicket National Preserve, Everglades National Park, 

Great Smokey Mountains National Park, Organ pipe 

cactus National Monument, and Yellowstone National 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 669

Park). Predictably, biosphere reserves co-located with 

National Parks will suffer from the same set of stressors 

that affect the parks, namely air and water pollution 

and recreation impacts. A more thorough evaluation of 

the status of the ecological status of biosphere reserves 

would be a valuable tool to guide future investments in 

biosphere reserve management and considerations for 

additions to the network.

Future Directions

The U.S. MAB program is in a period of reflection and 

revitalization as it contemplates its future commitment 

and contributions to biological diversity conservation 

and sustainable development. Much has transpired over 

the last three decades, including advancement of our 

understanding of ecology, ecosystem dynamics, and 

sustainability thresholds and threats. Similarly, many 

national and international programs have been created 

with the intent of achieving a variety of biodiversity 

conservation and sustainability objectives (for example, 

the Long-Term Ecological Research Network and the 

National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis). 

At the same time, it is clear that sustainability challenges 

continue to mount. At the Johannesburg World Summit 

on Sustainable Development in 2002, it was determined 

through exchange and discussion by thousands of participants, including over 100 heads of state, that growing 

poverty and increasing environmental degradation are 

threatening sustainability at local to global scales. The 

Summit intended to focus the world’s attention toward 

meeting the challenge of improving people’s lives and 

conserving natural resources in the face of growing human populations and association demands for resources. 

Given the limited progress that has been made since the 

Rio de Janeiro Summit in 1992, there is now an urgency 

to take substantive action, and the U.S. MAB program 

could play a pivotal role.

It is incumbent upon the U.S. MAB program to take 

a multitude of factors into consideration in charting its 

course for the future. Certainly, the draft recommendations from the Johannesburg World Summit will outline 

keystone steps in the pursuit of sustainability. Similarly, 

the 2002 Convention on Biological Diversity generated 

broad objectives for 2010 that mirror those of the 2002 

World Summit on Sustainable Development – poverty 

reduction and slowing the current rate of biodiversity 

loss at the global, national, and regional levels (www.

biodiv.org). Specific approaches and actions have been 

generated by the MAB program through two seminal 

conferences. MAB program representatives from over 

40 countries convened in Seville, Spain in 1995 to examine past experience in implementing the innovative 

concept of biosphere reserves, and to look to the future 

to identify what emphases should now be given to their 

three functions of conservation, development and logistical support. The result was Seville Strategy, which 

contains 11 objectives and associated recommendations 

for improving the national and bioregional effectiveness 

of the MAB program (table 2) (UNESCO 1996). A subsequent meeting in 2000 resulted in another document 

that provides further refinement to the original strategy 

in the form of a checklist for priority actions referred 

to as Seville+5 (UNESCO 2000). These recommendations are tailored specifically to the MAB program and 

provide a clear set of actions that will assist in directing 

and energizing the U.S. Program.

In summary, retooling the U.S. MAB program for 

success over the next few decades to will undoubtedly updating many of its elements. A refreshed set of 

objectives and operating principles based on a model 

of integrated human and natural ecosystems is needed. 

An increased emphasis on the interface between 

Table 2. Four goals and 11 objectives articulated in the Seville Strategy (recommendations for action are available).

Goal I: Use of biosphere reserves to conserve natural and cultural diversity

Improve the coverage of natural and cultural biodiversity by means of the World Network of Biosphere Reserves.

Integrate biosphere reserves into conservation planning.

Goal II: Utilize biosphere reserves as models of land management and of approaches to sustainable development

Secure the support and involvement of local people.

Ensure better harmonization and interaction among the different biosphere reserve zones.

Integrate biosphere reserves into regional planning.

Goal III: Use biosphere reserves for research, monitoring, education, and training

Improve knowledge of the interactions between humans and the biosphere.

Improve monitoring activities.

Improve education, public awareness, and involvement.

Improve training for specialists and managers.

Goal IV: Implement the biosphere reserve concept

Integrate the functions of biosphere reserves.

Improve the strength of the World Biosphere Reserve Network.

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•
670 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

human-dominated and wildland ecosystems will guide 

revisions and additions to the reserve network (for example, urban biosphere reserves), as well as within-reserve 

activities. Enhanced networking capabilities among reserves within the U.S. and with other countries is critical 

to speed the exchange of ideas and the application of innovations. Global climate change has been identified as a 

sustainability challenge that biosphere reserves can make 

a unique contribution, as evidence by the recent MAB 

Global Change Monitoring Initiative (UNESCO 2004). 

The U.S. biosphere reserve network contains a number of 

high elevation and island ecosystems, and has the opportunity to contribute to global change challenges. Finally, 

national direction and support is essential to promote and 

advance much needed education and capacity building 

activities at multiple scales. The U.S. MAB program is 

poised at the event horizon of a new century of promise 

and challenges, and holds great potential to contribute 

substantially to the goals, objectives, and challenges in 

the pursuit of sustainability in the decades ahead.

References

Anonymous. 1995. Biosphere reserves in action: case studies 

of the American experience. Unpublished document. U.S. 

MAB Secretariat, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Washington, D.C. [www.euromab.org/publications/case.html].

Clark, T. W.; S. C. Minta. 1994. Greater Yellowstone’s future. 

Homestead Publishing, Moose, WY. 160 p.

Diamond, J. 1999. Guns, germs, and steel: the fates of human 

societies. W. W. Norton & Co., New York, NY. 480 p.

Gilbert, T. 2004. United States Biosphere Reserve Survey 

2003. Unpublished report. United States Biosphere 

Reserves Association, Knoxville, Tennessee. [www.samab.

org/about/usbra usbra.html].

Southern Appalachian Man and the Biosphere (SAMAB). 

1996. The Southern Appalachian Assessment Summary 

Report. Report 1 of 5. U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Southern Region, Atlanta, GA. 128 p.

Sayer, J.; B. Campbell. 2003. The science of sustainable 

development: local livelihoods and the global environment. 

Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom. 

288 p.

Schullery, P. 1995. The Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. In 

LaRoe, E. T.; G. S. Farris; C. E. Puckett; P. D. Doran; 

M. J. Mac, eds. Our living resources: a report to the 

nation on the distribution, abundance, and health of U.S. 

plants, animals, and ecosystems. U.S. Department of the 

Interior, National Biological Service Washington, D.C. 

312 to 314.

UNESCO. 1995. Statutory framework of the world network 

of biosphere reserves. UNESCO, Division of Ecological 

Sciences, Paris, France. 6 p. [www.unesco.org/mab/docs/

statframe.html].

UNESCO. 1996. The Seville Strategy for Biosphere Reserves. 

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Organization, Paris, France. 13 p. [www.unesco.org/mab/

publications/document.html].

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Cultural Organization, Paris, France. 11 p. [www.unesco.

org/mab/publications/document.html].

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mountain biosphere reserves. Entlebuch biosphere reserve, 

Switzerland. November 10-13, 2003. 20 p.

UNESCO 2003. Biosphere Reserves list. UNESCO MAB 

Secretariat, Division of Ecological Sciences, Paris, France. 

19 p. [www.unesco.org/mab/brlist.html].

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and beyond. International brief WP/02-1, March 2004. 4 

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Unpublished document. National Park Service, Washington, 

D.C. 88p. [www.nps.gov/yell/publications/pdfs/handbook/

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 671

Introduction

The U.S. Forest Service manages approximately 76 

million ha (191 million acres) of National Forest System 

(NFS) lands. Information on the condition of populations 

and habitats of plants and animals is a primary tool for 

determining desired conditions, understanding potential conflicts in multiple use objectives in the context 

of sustainability, and formulating management direction to achieve these objectives. The National Forest 

Management Act (1976) highlights the need to maintain 

species and ecosystem diversity on NFS lands as essential elements of our ecological and cultural heritage, and 

specifies the inclusion of a monitoring strategy in each 

Forest’s Land and Resource Management Plan. Further, 

the U.S. Forest Service has a lead role in assessing the 

extent, condition, and sustainability of the nation’s forests and grasslands under the guidance of legislation (for 

example, Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources 

Planning Act 1974) and international agreements (for 

example, Criteria and Indicators for Sustainable Forestry 

– the Montreal Process) (Anonymous 1995).

Development and implementation of monitoring at 

Forest and Regional scales has been slow. A report by 

the General Accounting Office (GAO 1997) documented 

inadequacies in the agency’s monitoring, stating “the 

Forest Service (1) has historically given low priority 

to monitoring during the annual competition for scarce 

resources, (2) continues to approve projects without 

an adequate monitoring component, and (3) generally 

does not monitor the implementation of its plans as its 

regulations require.” Reasons for inadequate monitoring 

The Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring Protocol: 

A Population, Community, and Biodiversity Monitoring 

Solution for National Forest System Lands

P. N. Manley, Research Wildlife Biologist, U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Research 

Station, Davis, CA

B. Van Horne, National Wildlife Research Program Leader, U.S. Forest Service, 

Arlington, VA

Abstract—The U.S. Forest Service manages approximately 76 million ha (191 million 

acres) of National Forest System (NFS) lands. The National Forest Management Act 

(1976) recognizes the importance of maintaining species and ecosystem diversity on 

NFS lands as a critical component of our ecological and cultural heritage. Information 

on the condition of populations and habitats of plants and animals is a primary tool for 

determining desired conditions, understanding potential conflicts in multiple use objectives in the context of sustainability, and formulating management direction to achieve 

these objectives. To date, no consistent, nationally standardized monitoring program 

exists to obtain status and trend data on multiple species on NFS lands. Inconsistencies 

in the development and implementation of multiple species monitoring programs have 

resulted in inadequate or unreliable monitoring data on most species. Over the past 

five years, Forest Service research and management have collaborated to develop a 

nationally standardized protocol, the Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring (MSIM) 

protocol. The MSIM protocol is designed to provide a minimum of presence/absence and 

habitat data for a broad suite of vertebrate and plant species. Primary survey methods 

are identified for each taxonomic group, including terrestrial and aquatic birds, mammals, amphibians, reptiles, and plants. The protocol is uses the Forest Inventory and 

Analysis systematic grid to structure sampling, thus enabling a variety of options for 

post-stratifying the data to address various management questions. Ancillary information includes habitat relationships of many species, identification of potential causal 

factors associated with observed trends, and data to evaluate the validity and strength 

of indicators. The protocol is designed for implementation on both NFS and non-NFS 

lands to provide data on population and habitat conditions at multiple scales for a 

variety of applications.
672 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

have not been evaluated as thoroughly, but undoubtedly 

include lack of clear monitoring objectives in land management plans that can be readily translated into sampling 

design specifications, lack of capacity or commitment 

to fund data collection, management, and analysis, and 

lack of standardized monitoring protocols. Consistent, 

nationally standardized monitoring protocols have not 

been available to Forests and Regions to obtain reliable 

status and trend data on animal populations and habitats 

on NFS lands. Inconsistencies in the development and 

implementation of integrated species monitoring programs result in the development of various of designs 

and approaches that are inadequate to address population 

and habitat trends with sufficient rigor to support land 

management decisions and meet NFMA monitoring 

requirements (for example, GAO 1991). The need for 

effective monitoring programs is mounting because 

over the next five years most Forest Land and Resource 

Management Plans which guide management for the 

second 10 to 20 year planning period as per NFMA will 

be revised. Lack of credible monitoring plans is likely 

to create a barrier to successful plan revision.

An increased emphasis on monitoring on NFS lands 

is being generated not only by NFMA, but also by growing concerns about declines in biological diversity in 

the United States (Flather and others 1999) and around 

the world (United Nations 2002). Recent ecoregional 

assessments conducted in various locations around the 

country suggest that a consistently large proportion of 

all vertebrate and plant species are of concern and interest (SAMAB 1996; Stephenson and Calcorone 1999; 

Wisdom and others 2000; USDA 2001). For example, 

in a recent assessment of the Columbia River Basin, 173 

of 468 vertebrate species (37 percent) were considered 

species of focus based on concerns for their persistence 

(Wisdom and others 2000). A similar scenario existed 

in California, where an assessment of vertebrates in 

the Sierra Nevada indicated that 213 of 465 species (46 

percent) were considered vulnerable to population losses 

(USDA 2001), and the Southern California assessment 

found 184 of 482 vertebrates (38 percent) were considered focal species based on special interest or concern 

(Stephenson and Calcorone 1999). Across the country 

in the southern Appalachian Mountains, a comparable 

situation existed, where an assessment determined that 

92 of their 320 vertebrate species (29 percent) were 

considered special interest or concern (SAMAB 1996). 

Similar trends existed for vascular plant species in these 

assessments, with proportions of species that are of 

concern generally ranging from 10 to 20 percent, but the 

absolute numbers of plant species of concern were over 

twice those of vertebrates of concern. Clearly, single 

species approaches to conservation, management, and 

monitoring are not feasible or effective means of dealing 

with the significant ecological and social consequences 

associated with the potential loss of 20 to 50 percent of 

the flora and fauna, equating to hundreds of species of 

plants and animals at ecoregional scales. Multiple-species, ecosystem-based monitoring strategies that provide 

reliable, timely, and informative measures of change are 

desperately needed.

Investments in monitoring by land management agencies are on the rise, particularly in the development and 

implementation of regionally and nationally consistent 

protocols for the inventory and monitoring of natural resources and land uses (for example Amphibian Research 

and Monitoring Initiative, Partners in Amphibian 

and Reptile Conservation, National Park Vital Signs 

Monitoring, Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute 

Monitoring Initiative, Environmental Protection Agency’s 

Environmental Monitoring Assessment Program, Forest 

Inventory and Analysis). Over the past few years, the 

U.S. Forest Service has launched multiple efforts to 

develop nationally consistent inventory and monitoring 

protocols for a variety of resources (e.g., wildlife, vegetation, streams, recreation use) (www.fs.fed.us/emc/rig). 

Within the Forest Service, most wildlife monitoring approaches being developed are restricted to one species 

or narrow taxonomic groups, with one exception. The 

U.S. Forest Service has developed the Multiple Species 

Inventory and Monitoring (MSIM) protocol. Through 

collaboration between research and management, this 

nationally standardized protocol for monitoring a large 

number of plant and animal species was designed to 

meet the basic requirements of NFMA and provide an 

effective, efficient, and reliable source of information 

on the status and trends of populations, habitats, and 

biological diversity on NFS lands. The MSIM protocol 

was developed in response to the large and growing 

number of species of concern and interest (for example, 

Management Indicator Species, Forest Service Sensitive 

species, and state and federally listed species) on NFS 

lands and throughout the country. This paper provides 

an introduction to the MSIM protocol and its potential to 

meet a variety of information needs at a range of scales 

for National Forest System lands and across land ownerships throughout ecoregions.

Objectives

The MSIM protocol was designed to provide a cost 

effective means of generating reliable status and trend 

(sensu Busch and Trexler 2003) estimates based on 

presence/absence data that are spatially and temporally coincindent across multiple species and taxonomic 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 673

groups. The MSIM protocol yields status and trend data 

for a breadth of levels of ecological organization (genetic, 

species, community, and landscape), thus enabling a 

more comprehensive evaluation of biological diversity 

and ecosystem condition (Noss 1990; Gaines and others 

2003). Primary survey methods provide data on species 

occurrence and composition, and contribute data on 

habitat condition at multiple scales. The acquisition of 

genetic data is not part of the primary survey method, 

but could be readily accomplished with collection of 

hair or tissue from lured or captured animals (Mills and 

others 2000).

The MSIM protocol is designed to answer the following inventory (status) questions (1) within an 

administratively defined area (for example, National 

Forest or Region), (2) within an ecologically defined area 

(for example, ecoregion or biome), and (3) throughout a 

species range, including diverse landscapes:

What is the status of populations of individual species 

adequately detected?

Proportion of occupied monitoring sites

Spatial distribution of occupancy

What is the status of habitat for species for which predictable habitat relationships have been determined?

Habitat characteristics (at all FIA points)

What is the relationship between the status of species 

and environmental conditions?

Predictive models of species presence based on 

environmental conditions (for example, vegetation 

composition and structure, logs and snags, elevation)

Develop or validate habitat relationships

What is the pattern of co-occurrence between species 

adequately detected?

The MSIM protocol is designed to answer the 

following change (trend) questions (1) within an administratively defined area, (2) within an ecologically 

defined area, and (3) throughout a species range, including diverse land ownerships:

What is the direction and magnitude of change in the 

proportion of sites occupied by individual species that 

have been adequately detected?

Change in the proportion of occupied points

Change in the spatial distribution of probability of 

occupancy

Change in site occupancy rates and patterns (in other 

words, sequence of occupancy for individual sites 

summarized over all points)

What is the change in community composition and 

structure?

Change in species composition

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•

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•

•

2.

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What is direction and magnitude of change of habitat?

Change in habitat characteristics (at all FIA points)

What is the relationship between changes in species 

and their habitats?

Coincident change in species presence and habitat 

conditions 

The MSIM protocol is a retrospective approach to 

monitoring (NRC 1995; Noon and others 1999; Noon 

2003), meaning that it seeks to reflect effects or changes 

after they have occurred. Unlike predictive or “prospective” monitoring, it is does not presume prior knowledge 

of key environmental stressors (anthropogenic sources 

of change) or make predictions about the ecological 

effects resulting from primary stressors. The principle 

objective of retrospective monitoring is to estimate parameter values at points in time and over time, and not 

to test hypotheses (Stewart-Oaten 1996). Alternatively, 

prospective monitoring targets condition indicators of 

stressors and ecological responses, and tests hypothesis 

about cause-effect relationships (Noon and others 1999; 

Noon 2003). It is likely that MSIM will provide status 

and trend data on a number of species that are considered 

indicators and their associated environmental conditions. 

Thus, the MSIM protocol may enable hypothesis testing 

by providing data to address one or more assumptions 

associated with prospective monitoring, such as population distribution and response to disturbances.

Sampling Design and 

Detection Methods

The MSIM protocol consists of a national framework 

of core design, methodological, and procedural elements 

(table 1) (see Manley and others in prep for more details). 

The core design and methodological elements of the 

protocol are described here: sampling frame, sampling 

frequency, and survey methods.

Sampling Frame

The sampling frame of the MSIM protocol is the systematic grid of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) 

program, which is an on-going nation-wide program 

that monitors the composition and structure of forested 

ecosystems (Roesch and Reams 1999). The national FIA 

design consists of a single point randomly located in each 

systematic hexagonal 2400 ha (6000 acres) grid cell (fig. 

1), resulting in a grid point density of approximately 210 

points per 5000 km2 (1.25 million acres). The FIA grid 

was selected as the foundation of the MSIM sampling 

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674 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

design because the density of the grid is low enough to 

assume independence between points for the majority of 

vertebrate species (in other words, different individuals 

detected at each point). Further, the FIA program offers 

a temporally and spatially reliable source of vegetation 

data across all land ownerships, thus it promises to provide the potential for monitoring habitat conditions at 

the density of the grid on NFS lands, and across all land 

ownerships in collaboration with other institutions and 

landowners. To maintain the integrity and anonymity of 

FIA plot locations, MSIM sampling is slightly off-set 

from FIA points

Sampling Frequency

Sampling every FIA grid point every year clearly 

would yield the greatest statistical precision and power. 

However, fiscal conservancy has led FIA to a serially 

alternating panel designs because they appear to have a 

high degree of statistical precision and power per unit effort to describe status and detect trends over time (Lesser 

and Overton 199;, Thornton and Hyatt 1994; Roesch 

and Reams 1999). In a serial alternating panel design, 

a systematic subset of grid points (a panel) is identified 

for sampling each year, thus if all sites are visited every 

five years, then there are five panels with 20 percent of 

the sites in each panel.

Sampling frequency for the MSIM protocol follows 

a panel design, but differs from FIA in the frequency of 

sampling to better meet population monitoring information needs. The status and trends of animal and plant 

populations and habitats need to be described with a 10 

to 20 year planning period. Given that animal populations exhibit fluctuations from year to year, the MSIM 

protocol has added an annual panel that is sampled every 

year, called an augmented serial alternating panel design, 

or ASAP, to improve the power to detect trends over the 

relatively short planning period (Urquhart and others 

1993; Fuller 1999). In sum, the MSIM protocol recommends that a minimum of 50 percent of the FIA points 

be included in the sample, and that at least 10 percent of 

the selected grid points be sampled every year as part of 

the annual panel.

Detection Methods

The eight primary survey methods selected for the 

MSIM protocol consist of commonly employed, stanTable 1. Summary of core elements of the National Framework for the MSIM protocol.

Element	 Specifications

Sampling frame • MSIM monitoring points will be established in association with FIA grid points

• A minimum of 50 percent of the FIA grid points sampled

Sampling frequency • A minimum of a five-year resample with at least 10% of sites sampled every year, which equates 

to 28 percent of sample sites surveyed in a given year

Survey methods • Primary survey method are identified for each major vertebrate taxonomic group, four of which 

are recommended to be implemented in all regions: bird point counts, small mammal live 

trapping, terrestrial visual encounter surveys, and habitat measurements.

• Secondary survey methods are additive, complementing primary survey methods for each 

taxonomic group.

• Multiple visits are made to all or a subset of points for each survey method used to maximize 

probability of observing species that are present.

Data acquisition • Data collection will be designed at the regional scale and coordinated within and among 

regions.

Data storage • Core data (species sighting and habitat conditions) will be stored in the FAUNA module of 

Natural Resource Information System.

• Relevant data copied to a variety of destinations, including FAUNA, TNC, and state heritage 

programs (via NatureServe).

Data analysis • Data analysis will follow the minimum standards identified in the national framework, such as 

estimates of proportion of points occupied, probability of detection, and a quantitative 

description of habitat condition for each species detected.

• A Regional-scale analysis guide should be developed to provide consistency and reliability to 

results from Regional analyses.

Reporting • Annual reports will be produced by each Region, and they will comply with reporting standards 

established as part of the national framework to ensure a minimum quality and detail, as 

well as facilitate the examination of trends across Regions.

• At 5-year intervals, a more detailed analysis will be conducted that analyzes population trends, 

habitat trends, habitat relationships, and any desired ancillary analyses.

Evaluation and revision • Annual and 5-year reports will be reviewed by: 1) the Wildlife Fish and Rare Plants and the 

Ecosystem Management Coordination staffs; and 2) the Region and Station Leadership 

Teams in each Region and Station for compliance with the national framework and to 

evaluate the significance of results.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 675

dardized survey methods that detect a large number and 

breadth of species per unit effort and, in the case of habitat, most efficiently measure habitat variables pertinent 

to the majority of species detected by survey methods. 

Primary survey methods include methods to detect species in each of the following major taxonomic groups: 

songbirds and woodpeckers, owls, aquatic birds, small 

mammals, medium and large-bodied mammals, amphibians, reptiles, and vascular plants (table 2). Point counts 

are used to survey songbirds and woodpeckers, and consist of standing at each of four count stations 200 m apart 

and recording the number of individuals of each species 

of vertebrate seen or heard during a 10 minute count 

period. Distance estimates can be added to the protocol 

to calculate density estimates. Broadcast calling is used 

to detect nocturnal birds (primarily owls) and consists of 

a nighttime survey conducted by driving or hiking along 

roads and trails throughout a 3 km radius area around the 

sample point and broadcasting calls of local owl species. 

Sherman live trapping is used to detected small mammals, and consists of quart-sized aluminum trap boxes 

placed around a 200 m radius hexagon around the point 

that are baited and checked for occupants over a four 

night period. Prior to release, captured individuals (primarily rodents) can be marked to estimate abundance and 

tissue can be collected for genetic analysis. Trackplates 

and cameras are used to detect medium to large sized 

mammals (primarily carnivores), and the array consists 

of six devices placed 250 m apart around the sampling 

point over a 10 day period. Trackplate stations consist 

of sooted aluminum plates that are baited with meat, and 

tracks created by animals walking on the sooted surface 

are identified to species. Associated camera stations are 

baited with meat and vegetables, and visitation to the 

bait triggers the camera to take a picture of the animal. 

Mistnetting is used to detect bat species, and consists 

of sampling aquatic sites or forest openings within a 1 

km radius area around the sample point. Mistnets are 

lightweight nets that extend 6 to 18 m across and up to 

4 meters in height. Surveys are conducted at night for 

three to four hours, and captured bats are identified to 

species. Amphibians and reptiles, as well as a smattering 

of specialist and larger bodied species, are detected with 

terrestrial and aquatic visual encounter surveys. During 

these surveys, observers traverse the sample unit (200 m 

radius hexagon for terrestrial surveys; littoral and shore 

zones for aquatic surveys) visually scouring and physically probing suitable habitat for individuals or their sign. 

Habitat measurements constitute the final primary survey 

method in the MSIM protocol, which are conducted at 

the center point, and repeated at some of the more remote 

survey locations.

Figure 1. Graphic representation of a Forest Inventory and Analysis hexagonal grid and sample points.
676 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Design Considerations

Land management agencies are increasingly turning to 

presence/absence data as an attractive measure of largescale population trends prompted by recent advances in 

standardized techniques for obtaining (Ralph and others 

1993, Heyer and others 1994, Wilson and others 1996) 

and analyzing (Azuma and others 1990, MacKenzie 

and others 2002, MacKenzie and others 2003) presence/absence data. The primary survey methods for the 

MSIM protocol provide a minimum of presence/absence 

and habitat data for a broad suite of animal and plant 

species, but in a number of cases (for example, point 

counts and Sherman live trapping) they also provide 

estimates of abundance, typically for species that occur 

at higher densities such as many small mammal and 

songbird species (Ralph and others 1993; Wilson and 

others 1996, respectively). However, obtaining reliable 

abundance estimates for larger-bodied species with large 

territories can be very time intensive and infeasible to 

accomplish for all such species of interest and concern 

at the ecoregional scale. Thus, occupancy serves as the 

basic population parameter shared by all species detected 

in large-scale, multiple-species monitoring efforts.

The proportion of points occupied across a region 

serves as an index of population abundance (Thompson 

and others 1998). State Atlas programs (Pearman 1997; 

Telfer and others 2002) and the National Lynx Survey 

(McKelvey and others 1999; Ruggerio and others 1999; 

McDaniels and others 2000) are examples of other 

population monitoring approaches similarly based on 

the extent of a species’ occurrence. In many cases the 

areal extent of a population and its size have a positive 

relationship (for example, Nachman 1981; Geissler and 

Fuller 1986; Bart and Klosiewski 1989; Robbins and 

others 1989; Gaston 1994; Syrjala 1996; Thompson and 

others 1998). However, the proportion of points occupied 

can be insensitive to certain types of population decline. 

Specifically, species with higher densities (multiple 

individuals occupying a given sample unit) could experience significant declines before site occupancy begins 

to change. In response, standardized multiple species 

survey methods for higher density species (for example, 

small mammals and songbirds) typically yield abundance 

estimates that logically would be generated for these species to better elucidate their individual population trends 

(for example, Ralph and others 1993; Wilson and others 

1996; Buckland and others 2001).

Statistical power to detect a change is lowest for species present at a low proportion of points and/or with low 

probability of detection (for example, Manley and others 

2004). Low densities can result from a variety of life history factors (for example, large home range size, habitat 

specialization) or from population declines. Generating 

abundance estimates for low density species would 

require additional targeted effort across an ecoregion, a 

level of effort that is outside the model of a broad-scale 

multiple-species monitoring approach. However, the 

probability of observation can be optimized within the 

confines of broad-scale multiple species monitoring approaches such as the MSIM protocol by more intensive 

sampling per point. Multiple sample stations and/or 

Table 2. Primary survey methods in the Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring protocol.

Protocol Effort Reference Target taxa

Point counts 7 stations, 10 min counts, Ralph and others 1993, 1995 song birds and woodpeckers, 

  3 visits some vocal small mammals and 

amphibians

Broadcast calling 2 visits Fuller and Mosher 1981 nocturnal and crepuscular birds

(nocturnal)

Sherman live trapping 70 traps, 4 nights Jones and others 1996 small mammals

Trackplate stations 6 stations, 10 days Zielinski and Kucera 1995 mid-sized carnivores

with cameras

Mist netting 3 net sites, 3 visits Jones and others 1996 bats

Terrestrial visual 10 ha area, 2 visits Crump and Scott 1994; terrestrial-phase amphibians, 

encounter surveys for Wemmer and others 1996 reptiles, large mammals, raptors

vertebrates and their 

sign

Aquatic visual 2 visits Crump and Scott 1994; aquatic amphibians, reptiles, 

encounter surveys Fellers and Freel 1995  mammals and birds

for vertebrates

Environmental Measurements taken in Forest Inventory and Analysis Habitat descriptions for all taxa

measurements the same year and manual (USDA 2004a)

season as the species 

data
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 677

multiple visits per point can serve not only to increase 

probability of observation, but also enable estimates of 

probability of detection and proportion of points occupied 

(MacKenzie and others 2003). Large-scale monitoring 

efforts face the challenge of multiple concurrent observers and turnover in observers over time, emphasizing 

the need to estimate probability of detection each year 

within each ecoregion.

Empirical Testing

Manley and others (2004) conducted an evaluation of 

the MSIM protocol to determine its potential effectiveness in meeting agency monitoring needs for vertebrate 

species. They estimated the number and types of species 

that would be adequately detected on the approximately 

6.5 million ha (16.5 million acres) of federal lands in 

the Sierra Nevada (SNEP 1996) if all primary survey 

methods were conducted at FIA points on federal lands 

at two points in time. They predicted that 76 percent of 

all vertebrate species would be adequately sampled to 

detect a 20 percent relative change in the proportion of 

grid points occupied with 80 percent precision and power. 

These data were reevaluated for the purposes of this paper 

based on the subset of points identified for sampling in the 

national framework for the MSIM protocol: 50 percent 

of the grid in the sample, 10 percent of those sampled 

every year, and an additional 18 percent sampled every 

5 years for a total of 14 percent of the full grid sampled 

every year. We found that the proportion of species adequately detected dropped from 76 percent to 42 percent, 

which still equated to 193 species adequately detected 

to monitor their populations across federal lands in the 

Sierra Nevada ecoregion. These results indicate that 

the MSIM protocol, even implemented at its minimum 

levels, is capable of providing status and trend data for 

hundreds of vertebrate species, many of which are likely 

to be species of concern and interest for which monitoring 

data are required (Manley and others 2004).

The predicted effectiveness of the MSIM protocol 

prompted field testing to validate its results. Field testing 

was conducted at the scale of a National Forest in the 

Sierra Nevada in 2002, and consisted of 40 sample sites 

on the Lake Tahoe Basin Management Unit (Manley and 

Roth 2004). Preliminary analysis of this limited data set 

(few sites, small geographic area, one sample period) 

provides some insights into the potential performance 

of the MSIM protocol. The field test detected approximately 50 percent of the species potentially occurring in 

the study area, including a wide assortment of species, 

including a diversity of taxonomic groups, life history 

characteristics, and many management indicator species 

and species of concern. The field test also demonstrated 

that indeed it is logistically feasible and economically 

efficient to implement multiple primary protocols concurrently at sites over the course of a spring and summer field 

season. Site integrity was not compromised and survey 

methods were staggered throughout the season so they 

did not interfere with one another.

Promising Applications

In addition to MSIM’s primary objectives of monitoring the status and trend of a breadth of species and 

communities, the protocol has the potential to yield many 

other substantial benefits that meet key land management 

information needs. In brief, species-related benefits of 

empirical data generated by the MSIM protocol in the 

first five years of monitoring could include the following 

(see Manley and others 2004 for more detail):

Identify and evaluate specific conditions of concern 

and interest, such as habitat thresholds beyond which 

populations may experience precipitous declines (for 

example, Fahrig 2002; Flather and Bevers 2002);

Provide new scientific information and understanding about community structure and dynamics under a 

wide variety of environmental conditions and changes 

over time;

Distribution data and models of suitable habitat 

for some species based on correlative relationships 

between species presence and environmental characteristics;

Provide basic data to empirically derive indicator 

species based on 1) the co-occurrence pattern among 

species and 2) the association between species occurrence and environmental features (for example, 

vegetation, disturbance); and

Evaluate and test existing or proposed indicator species or species groups.

Over the course of 10 or more years of implementation 

of the MSIM protocol, additional species-related benefits 

could be realized:

Improve the design and efficiency of population, 

habitat, and community monitoring programs over 

the course of their implementation;

Identify potential effects of management actions 

or natural disturbances on populations and habitat 

conditions;

Provide insights into the potential effects of changes 

in populations on community structure and dynamics, thus providing a broad-scale context for focusing 

research to inform management; and

Validate trends indicated by other large-scale inventory and monitoring programs, such as GAP (Scott 

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678 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

and others 1993) and Breeding Bird Survey (Droege 

1990).

This broad-scale multi-taxonomic monitoring strategy 

can readily serve as a platform for many topic specific 

monitoring needs. For example, the U.S. Forest Service 

has identified four primary threats to the integrity and 

sustainability of National Forest System lands: fire and 

fuels, invasive plants, fragmentation, and unmanaged recreation. Implementation of the MSIM protocol across all 

NFS lands could provide valuable data on the status and 

trends of these threats and their ecological consequences. 

Fried and others (2003) demonstrated that FIA data can 

provide a valuable source of data to assess ecological 

dynamics, in this case by analyzing pre and post treatment 

on the effects of fuel treatments on residual biomass. 

Another example of the utility of FIA-based data is the 

status and trends of wilderness ecosystems throughout 

the country. The U.S. Forest Service and others are 

embarking on a system-wide monitoring effort evaluate 

compliance with the Wilderness Act (1964) and associated agency policies in terms of the status and trend of 

wilderness character (Landres and others 1994; USDA 

2004b). Threats to wilderness character include exposure 

to and effects of modern human impacts. Plant and animal 

populations and communities are a major component 

of the wilderness experience, and the MSIM protocol 

could readily provide a sound foundation of biotic data 

for evaluating wilderness character at bioregion, biome, 

and national scales.

In conclusion, the MSIM protocol holds a great deal of 

promise in its ability to meet a wide range of valuable and 

timely scientific and management-related biodiversity 

information needs at a range of relevant scales in a cost 

effective manner. Implementation of the protocol at the 

ecoregional scale is a logical next step toward refining 

and optimizing the protocol to best meet the needs of the 

U.S. Forest Service, other public land stewards, States, 

and the country in conserving and monitoring plant and 

animal species, communities, and biological diversity.

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General Direction of the National Center for 

Environmental Research and Training (Cenica)

A. P. Martínez Bolívar, Director of Research in Air Quality Monitoring and Analytic 

Characterization of Pollutants

J. Zaragoza Ávila, O. Fentanes Arriaga and S. Hernández Millán, Direction of Research in 

Air Quality Monitoring and Analytic Characterization of Pollutants, CENICA 

Tecamachalco/INE/SEMARNAT, Boulevard El Pípila No. 1. Col. Lomas de Tecamachalco, 

C.P. 53950, Naucalpan de Juárez, Estado de México. MEXICO

V. J. Gutiérrez Avedoy is the General Director of the CENICA, CENICA /INE/SEMARNAT, 

San Rafael Atlixco No. 186 Col. Vicentina Delegación Iztapalapa, C. P. 09340 UAM-l 

Edificio de Ciencia y Tecnología Ambiental “W”

Abstract—The National Atmospheric Monitoring Program (Programa Nacional de 

Monitoreo Atmosférico - PNMA) is the answer to one of the main priorities of Mexico’s 

Ministry of the Environment and Natural Resources (SEMARNAT) for its linkage to other 

sectors of the administration. Under a transversal scheme, this program proposes to 

create links with the various municipalities and Mexican States that currently have air 

quality monitoring systems, as well as with other branches of the Federal Government, in 

order to promote programs to inform and create awareness in the population, establish 

financing schemes and support local monitoring efforts, by strengthening their institutions and providing procedures, among others. Its main objective is to Establish an air 

quality monitoring program to guarantee adequate diagnostic and surveillance of air 

quality at the national level; to generate information that is real, valid, and comparable 

among the different sites and air quality networks in the Country which would serve as 

a foundation for the design and establishment of environmental policy for the protection of the health of the population and the well-being of ecosystems. This program is 

divided in three different stages with specific objectives, which upon implementation 

will serve as basis for the following stage. The first stage is the analysis and development 

of tools, where PNMA’s main task is to produce a diagnosis of the current state of the air 

quality monitoring networks in the Country, and of the laws, institutions, and financial 

mechanisms that support them. Also, this stage focuses on the development of tools 

and/or procedures that will guide air quality monitoring practices at the national level, 

in order to guarantee quality systems and comparability of data. The second stage is 

the establishment of strategies for identifying the sites where it is a priority to instrument 

air quality monitoring programs. These strategies include the identification criteria, the 

launch of awareness and information campaigns, and the implementation of the various states’ monitoring plans. Finally, the third stage, where the tools and strategies are 

applied to: monitor air quality in priority sites; obtain the homologation of monitoring practices; establish quality assurance and control programs which guarantee the 

veracity of the data generated by these air monitoring systems; and to set up national 

surveillance programs through audits. Last, this stage would help create a proposal for 

a Second National Atmospheric Program that would include countrywide multi-pollutant and toxic pollutants’ monitoring networks in areas where the existence of these 

pollutants is suspected.
682 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

During the past three decades of environmental management, several programs have been established to 

control and diminish the air pollution levels in the main 

urban centers of Mexico since the 1970’s and, more 

recently, in some medium-sized cities.

As of today, 18 locations in the Country are being 

monitored by automatic equipment and 24 others are 

being monitored manually. There is also monitoring by 

private and state companies, such as CFE and Pemex. 

The main pollutants are being measured, such as Sulfur 

Dioxide (SO2), Carbon Monoxide (CO), Suspended 

Particles (TSP, PM10 and PM2.5), Nitrogen Oxides 

(NO2 – NO - NOx), Ozone (O3), Lead (Pb), Hydrogen 

Sulfide (H2S), Heavy Metals, Sulfides, Nitrates, and 

other parameters such as solar radiation and atmospheric 

deposits, both dry and wet. Also, there is equipment for 

the determination of meteorological parameters, mainly 

wind direction and velocity, ambient temperature and 

humidity, which, associated to the pollution levels, ease 

the analysis of inverse trajectories and the prediction of 

future concentrations of the pollutants at ground level.

There are, nonetheless, within the Mexican Territory, 

areas that require greater attention, such as towns with a 

high degree of industrialization, areas at environmental 

risk, and degraded areas classified as critical, among 

others. Also, there is a need for local governments 

and communities to increase their efforts to obtain 

dependable information regarding the concentration of 

pollutants, their sources and effects in these places, a 

must for making decisions regarding the protection of 

health and ecosystems.

Monitoring the air quality is fundamental to identify 

and provide the necessary information to evaluate the air 

quality of each region and its trends, as a tool to develop 

control and prevention strategies, air quality management 

plans, and integral environmental policies, among other 

applications. Because of this, a decision was made to develop a National Program of Atmospheric Monitoring to 

define the practice of air quality monitoring, to establish 

monitoring sites of national interest and to guarantee its 

quality.

Program

Following is a summary of the National Program of 

Atmospheric Monitoring (PNMA), whose main objective 

is the institution of a program for air quality monitoring 

that will guarantee a diagnosis and vigilance of the air 

quality at the national level which in turn will generate 

real, valid and comparable information between the 

different sites and networks in the Country, as a fundamental 

instrument for the establishment of environmental 

policies to protect the health of the population and the 

ecosystems.1

Because of the reach, diversity, and cost of instituting a 

program such as this, specific objectives were established 

through a process split in stages with definite time spans. 

So, the program consists of three stages whose specific 

objectives and interactions are summarized in figure 1.

Stages

First Stage (Short Term, From 2003 to 

2004)

During this first stage the actual state of the air quality 

networks and monitoring stations of the Country is to be 

evaluated, as well as their legal support, assistance from 

institutions and finance sources to establish a diagnostic 

and national requirement. Also, the procedures that will 

rule the practices of air monitoring will be established at 

the national level, setting up a Reference Framework for 

Air Monitoring Procedures. The main objective of this 

stage is diagnosing the present situation of the monitoring 

networks in order to identify the fundamental requirements of the monitoring systems and their strengths and 

weaknesses, in order to develop strategies to strengthen 

them.

Diagnosis of the present situation of the air monitoring 

networks at the national level.

To carry out this work a questionnaire has been designed that includes technical information of the tools 

that constitute the monitoring systems, administrative 

information and information on resources and operation 

problems for each monitoring system.

State laws and rules will have to be compiled and reviewed, as well as those of a regional or local character 

if they exist, and also the air quality plans and control 

programs. With this information, the needs and weaknesses of the legal framework at the federal, state and 

local level in the subject of air quality monitoring will 

be identified.

State governments and, if possible, municipal governments, will be asked to provide information on the 

institutions in charge of environmental management 

within their territory, in order to establish the needs and 

required strengthening of the institutions within each 

region to establish Air Monitoring Programs.

From the information obtained in the questionnaire, in 

which sources of financing for the existing air monitoring networks will be identified, a review and update of 

the finance instruments or strategies that have supported 

the development of these networks will be carried out, 

1.
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new possible national or foreign sources of funds will 

be identified and strategies or financial instruments applied in other countries will be identified, such as funds, 

taxes, penalties, compensations, emission-exchange 

mechanisms, permits, credits and others, establishing 

conceptual designs of financing schemes, in order to 

organize a range of possibilities for the financing of the 

institution, operation and maintenance of the monitoring systems.

The feasibility of establishing, in the long run, a market of credits or bonds for the reduction of emissions in 

which the cities might exchange a reduction of emissions within their territory for additional benefits from 

the Federal Government will be analyzed. Air quality 

monitoring would have a leading role in the verification 

and auditing of these reductions. These emission credits 

might be commercialized internationally in accordance 

with strategies and policies established in this regard.

Establishment of the reference Framework for Air 

Quality Monitoring Procedures.

In order to establish a reference framework to standardize monitoring practices, data handling and information 

distribution that will serve as a guide to reach a quality 

monitoring system at the national level, during this stage 

the Reference Framework for Air Quality Monitoring 

Procedures will be developed. This framework will 

2.

provide, as mentioned before, the basis for the unification 

of procedures at the national level, supplying the tools 

required for the establishment of quality standards that 

will make possible the comparison between air quality 

monitoring systems. For this purpose, with the aid of the 

Japanese Agency for International Cooperation, JICA, 

and based on EPA documents, six manuals are being 

developed, which include:

Goals and components of the air quality monitoring 

systems.

Design of the installation of air monitoring systems.

Operating instructions for the air monitoring systems.

Maintenance and calibration of air monitoring systems.

Quality control and quality assurance of air monitoring systems.

Federal procedure for auditing air monitoring systems.

Strengthening of the Air Quality National Information 

System (SINAICA)

Also, during this stage, the Air Quality National 

Information System (SINAICA) is being strengthened, in 

order to establish an integral management system of the 

air quality data generated in the Country. The SINAICA 

•

•

•

•

•

•

3.

Figure 1. National Program 

of Atmospheric Monitoring 

(PNMA) stages.
684 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

is an ongoing project that gathers and distributes through 

the web page of the National Ecology Institute, http://

sinaica.ine.gob.mx/presentacion.html, the data generated 

by the main automatic air quality monitoring networks of 

Mexico in order to publicize the current and historic situation of the air quality in different cities in the Country. 

This information is openly available through the Internet, 

being useful for specialists in the subject, researchers, 

employees from the three levels of government, the 

private sector, and general population interested in finding out the levels of concentration of critical air quality 

pollutants. Currently, it includes information on air quality from the monitoring networks from the metropolitan 

areas of the cities of Mexico, Guadalajara, Toluca and 

Puebla. During 2004, INE’s monitoring stations and the 

air quality monitoring networks from Salamanca, León, 

Celaya, Irapuato, Monterrey, Ciudad Juárez, TijuanaRosarito-Tecate and Mexicali are being included. In 

the long run, the SINAICA should be the institutional 

medium that integrates the data from all the air quality 

monitoring stations in Mexico, including both continuous 

and manual, and public and private measuring stations 

from sites of national interest.

Strengthening of air quality monitoring and evaluation 

of the capacity of the cities currently participating.

During this stage, the monitoring of the air quality in 

Mexico will be strengthened, promoting the updating 

of the networks and their equipment when required, in 

accordance with the results obtained with the diagnosis. 

The Federal Government will offer technical support in 

the design of programs to strengthen the current monitoring systems and will also look for financial mechanisms 

to support them. It also includes the formalization 

of transfer agreements and safekeeping of the equipment that several sites have received form the Federal 

Government.

Promotion of the decentralization processes

Promoting the formalization of agreements for the 

transfer of responsibility over the equipment to the state 

authorities will commit them to take charge of its installation, operation and maintenance. This would promote 

the observance of the decentralization programs.

The duration of the first stage would be one year. Its 

activities and tasks are listed in table 1.

Products:

Diagnosis of the current state of air quality monitoring and its projected future potential. Inventories of 

monitoring networks and stations and their equipment, 

current situation of rulings, institutional framework 

and finance sources.

Conceptual design of finance schemes

Reference Framework of Procedures for Air Quality 

Monitoring for the validation of instruments, networks 

4.

5.

•

•

•

and systems and the coordination of the efficient 

handling of data and the distribution of reliable information, such as:

Criteria for the design of monitoring networks.

Protocols for operation, maintenance, calibration and 

data handling.

Criteria for quality assurance and quality control.

Criteria for the evaluation of air quality monitoring 

systems.

Strengthening of SINAICA

Training programs

Agreements for the transfer of measuring equipment to 

the states or municipalities that have received them.

Second Stage (Medium Term, From 

2005 to 2006)

During the second stage of this program the criteria 

and strategies for the determination of the sites which 

require air quality monitoring will be defined. Required 

networks and their equipment will be defined, having in 

mind items like institutional and legal strengthening in 

accordance with state and municipal governments, so 

that plans for the instrumentation of state monitoring 

programs be developed. The main objective is the determination of those sites that require air quality monitoring 

in Mexico and the setting of priorities. Needed activities 

include the following:

Identification and prioritization of the sites which 

require air quality monitoring in Mexico

This strategy requires, in the first place, the definition 

of criteria for the determination of those sites where 

it is required to establish an Air Quality Monitoring 

Program. Among these criteria will be the socioeconomic characteristics of the site, its climatic and 

topographic characteristics and the claims from the 

inhabitants. Also, non-complying and high risk areas 

will be designated, as well as areas that require special 

attention, which will be given priority. Once the criteria 

are defined, an investigation will be made to identify 

the areas or sites that require air quality monitoring 

in the Country. From these areas, priorities will be 

selected based on the impact on the population or the 

environment.

Support of campaigns for the sensitization and promotion of the importance of establishing Air Quality 

Monitoring Programs.

This strategy foresees the design of a model of sensitization and awareness to promote the participation of 

the population in the solution of environmental problems, 

with the support of other Government Departments such 

as the “Secretaría de Educación Pública” and, potentially, 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

6.

7.
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of international organizations. The goal is to promote 

collective actions for the improvement of daily life conditions of those involved.

The establishment of the model would be followed 

by the implementation of campaigns by the state governments, which may consist of workshops, talks and 

propaganda, among others. It will probably be required 

to design didactic material to support the development 

of community workshops. An increase in the awareness 

of the populace in environmental problems will translate 

into public pressure for the generation and dissemination 

of air quality data as a first step towards the development of environmental policies in accordance with the 

particular problems of each location.

Promotion of the establishment of local, state or 

regional air quality monitoring programs through 

government, academic or private organizations.

8.

Together with the divulgation of information and the 

sensitization of the populace, it will be necessary to promote among the authorities and the academic and private 

organizations the development of monitoring programs 

to determine the actual state of the air quality in their 

localities. Both the decision makers and the pertinent 

organizations should be conscious of the environmental 

problems and particular risks of their districts.

The design and establishment of the monitoring program will vary from site to site, leaving the responsibility 

in the hands of either the department of ecology, urban 

development, health care or other government agency or 

to industrial, scientific or higher education organizations. 

Whichever is the case, it is a real necessity to involve 

those organizations interested in the planning, design and 

operation of the system. Because of this, there is a need 

for campaigns so that the different participants exchange 

Table 1. Short term activities (First Stage).

Short term objectives Activity Task

1. Diagnosis of the present situation of I. Gather and update the information 1. - Take inventory of the Country’s monitoring

the air monitoring networks at the at the national level networks.

national level

2. - Take inventory of the equipment in the 

Country’s monitoring networks.

3. - Analyze the handling of air quality 

monitoring data.

II. Analyze the legal basis and the 1.- Review the legal framework

institutional development 2. - Define legal requirements

3. - Review the institutional framework

III. Identify finance sources and 1.- Identify finance sources and mechanisms

mechanisms 2. - Find new finance sources and 

mechanisms

3. - Establish alternatives sources of financing

2. Establishment of the reference IV. Establish the reference Framework 1. - Define protocols for the design, operation, 

Framework for Air Quality Monitoring for Air Quality Monitoring Procedures maintenance, and calibration of networks and 

Procedures data handling.

2. - Establish criteria for quality control and 

assurance.

3. - Define procedures for the evaluation of air 

quality monitoring systems.

4. - Define requirements for data handling and 

information distribution at the national level.

 5. - Establish the National Reference 

Framework for Air Quality Monitoring 

Procedures

6. - Establish norms and regulations.

7.-Evaluate the main monitoring networks in 

the Country.

3. Strengthening of the Air Quality V. Strengthen the Air Quality National 1. - Define the basis for strengthening the

National Information System Information System (SINAICA). SINAICA

(SINAICA). 2. - Consolidate the SINAICA

4. Strengthening of air quality VI. Strengthen and evaluate the 1. - Design programs to strengthen existing

monitoring and evaluation of the capacity of existing monitoring monitoring networks

capacity of the cities currently networks 2. - Offer technical support.

participating

5. Promotion of the decentralization VII. Foster the compliance with 1. - Formalize transfer agreements for

processes decentralization processes. measuring equipment with those states or 

cities that have received them.
686 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

information and reach a consensus and understanding of 

the environmental problems. These campaigns will be 

made through congresses, forums or interdisciplinary 

workshops.

Support to the states in the development of their program of instrumentation of air quality monitoring in 

those regions that require it.

This strategy foresees the strengthening and/or establishment of the legal framework that will commit each 

state to develop a State Plan of Air Quality Monitoring 

in the regions that require it. The review of the legal 

framework referred to in the first stage of this program 

will produce guidelines for the legal requirements in need 

of being strengthened or implemented. It is recommended 

that, together with the establishment of the required 

legal framework, criteria be defined to allow each state 

to determine and include in its plan or program the kind 

of environmental parameters that should be measured, 

the number of stations required, their location and their 

time and area coverage.

Likewise, measures will be taken to obtain and provide 

technical support from SEMARNAT to each state in the 

development of its State Air Quality Monitoring Plan in 

the regions that require it. The establishment of procedures in accordance with the Reference Framework of 

Air Quality Monitoring Procedures will be promoted.

 Promote the equipping of the air quality monitoring 

networks at the national level.

Within this strategy, it is foreseen to develop and 

institute alternative methodologies for air quality monitoring, proven and validated by national and international 

organizations, in those regions where conditions do not 

permit the use of automatic instruments, to facilitate the 

adoption of monitoring programs.

Likewise, with alternative methodologies for air quality monitoring it will be possible to develop programs 

to promote the equipping of monitoring networks set 

to accomplish the particular goals of each region. The 

steps needed to design the programs will be included in 

the program model in which all details for their orchestration will be specified. Once again, the goal of these 

programs will be the guidance of air quality monitoring 

so it will fulfill the local needs of each community at a 

reasonable cost. These programs will be added to those 

for strengthening the established networks that were initiated during the fist stage and will continue throughout 

the three stages of this plan.

The duration of the second stage would be two years. 

Its activities and tasks are listed in table 2.

Products:

National criteria for the identification of sites that 

require air quality monitoring.

9.

10.

•

Location of the regions that require air quality monitoring in Mexico

Selection of prior sites.

Model of diffusion and sensitization

Campaigns of diffusion and sensitization

State programs for setting up air quality monitoring

Programs to promote the equipping of monitoring 

networks

Third Stage (Long Term, From 2007 to 

2008)

After having produced during the first stage the 

Reference Framework of Procedures for Air Quality 

Monitoring to standardize, evaluate and strengthen the 

air quality monitoring systems and to coordinate the 

efficient handling of data and the diffusion of reliable 

information in the Country, and having spread the information contained within this reference framework in 

the second stage, in order to develop strategies for setting up new systems of air quality monitoring it will be 

necessary the production of a program to coordinate the 

homologation of procedures and to support the different 

locations in the development of quality assurance and 

control programs that comply with the criteria established 

in the aforementioned reference framework. To verify the 

compliance of the established procedures, a program of 

vigilance and environmental audits will be defined which 

will evaluate the networks using local groups of regional 

accredited inspectors.

The main goal of this stage is to satisfy the demand 

for air quality monitoring from the sites identified as 

priorities. Likewise, to give continuity to the National 

Atmospheric Monitoring Program, during this stage a 

new National Program 2007 – 2010 will be designed 

in order to develop and establish regional networks for 

multiple pollutants.

 Satisfaction of the demand for air quality monitoring 

from the sites identified as priorities.

Once the selection criteria for the sites which require 

air quality monitoring in the Country have been defined, 

and after selecting those sites which are classified as 

priorities, strategies to fulfill the demand for air quality 

monitoring of these will be applied, in accordance with 

the states’ plans for setting up air quality monitoring 

which were defined during stage 2 of this plan. For this 

purpose, technical support and advice will be given to 

identify finance sources for the states in which these 

sites are located.

Also, in order to strengthen training and technical 

updating, the establishment of regional training centers 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 687

will be promoted in those locations around which monitoring activities be concentrated which show a quality 

performance in agreement with the standards established 

in the reference framework, making use of the strengths 

and capacities of certain locations. Three regional centers 

might be established: Northern Border, Pacific Region 

and Southeast Region.

The regional centers will also offer guidance in 

the definition of strategies for the financing of equipping, installing and operating these networks, as well 

as alternative finance sources that will be established 

in agreement with the Federal Government and with 

national and international organizations. The regional 

center will serve as guide and facilitator in the negotiations that need to take place during the design, installation 

and operation of a monitoring system.

Likewise, the Federal Government might support the 

establishment of programs for equipping the air quality 

monitoring networks and stations, in accordance with 

the states’ programs or plans for setting up air quality 

monitoring so that its demand will be satisfied in the 

locations identified as priorities.

. Homologation of operative procedures at the national level.

The establishment of the Reference Framework of Air 

Quality Monitoring Procedures will allow the instrumentation of a program to coordinate the homologation of 

12.

procedures at the national level and to support the different 

locations in setting up whichever measures are required.

The homologation of procedures at the national level 

will promote the compatibility and comparability of 

data and the validation of procedures between the different monitoring networks, will increase the quality 

and will permit the evaluation of monitoring practices, 

data handling and information spread, making the 

technical review programs and the nationwide audits 

more efficient.

. Supply of complete, inclusive and necessary information for the rational management of air quality.

The supply of complete, inclusive and necessary 

information for the rational management of air quality will depend strictly upon the compliance with the 

monitoring goals set when the network or the system 

were designed.

The Data Quality Objectives derive from the monitoring objectives. The former are defined as the criteria that 

clarify the study objectives, define the appropriate types 

of data acquisition and specify the allowed error levels 

of potential decisions. The procedure to establish the 

DQO is one of systematic planning to generate enough 

air quality data to guarantee the use for which they were 

designed and, at the same time, improve the effectiveness 

of planning, the efficacy of design and the safekeeping 

of results (EPA 1998; EPA 2002).

13.

Table 2. Medium term activities (Second Stage).

Medium term objectives Activity Task

6. Identification and prioritization of VIII. Identify and prioritize the sites which 1. - Establish criteria for the identification of

the sites which require air quality require air quality monitoring in Mexico. locations that require an air quality

monitoring in Mexico. monitoring program.

2. - Identify and prioritize sites

7. Support of campaigns for the IX. Foster campaigns for the sensitization 1. - Design campaigns

sensitization and promotion of the and promotion of the importance of 2. - Implement sensitization and promotion

importance of establishing Air Quality establishing Air Quality Monitoring campaigns.

Monitoring Programs. Programs.

8. Promotion of the establishment of X. Promote the establishment of local, 1. - Organize congresses, forums, and

local, state, or regional air quality state, or regional air quality monitoring workshops.

monitoring programs through programs through government, academic

government, academic or private or private organizations.

organizations.

9. Support to the states in the XI. Back the states in the development of 1. - Strengthen and/or establish the 

development of their program of their program of instrumentation of air framework of rules that commit each state 

instrumentation of air quality quality monitoring in those regions that to develop a State Air Quality Monitoring 

monitoring in those regions that require it. Plan in those regions that require it.

require it. 2. - Define the procedure to support those 

regions that require it in the development of 

their State Air Quality Monitoring Plan.

10. Promote the equipping of the air XII. Foster the equipping of the air quality 1. - Develop and institute methodologies

quality monitoring networks at the monitoring networks at the national level. adapted to the specific monitoring needs of 

national level. the participating locations.

2. - Design programs to foster equipping.
688 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

One of the main tasks will be fostering the establishment of systematic planning procedures, like the 

procedure to establish DQO, to generate criteria with 

which can be evaluated if the data are of the correct 

type, quantity and quality to sustain the DQO (EPA 

1994).

Once the criteria are defined, they will be spread 

through the regional centers, requesting an evaluation or 

estimate of the quality of the data obtained through the 

various monitoring systems, in order to verify the data’s 

compliance with the DQO.

The review of the DQO, the design of the sampling 

process and the review of the monitoring system will 

show if the data obtained complies with the established 

goals. The validation of the monitoring systems and the 

data obtained will provide the guidance to review and 

establish the quality control and assurance programs for 

the data that will guarantee that these are of sufficient 

quality for the goals set.

The Federal Government will ask the main urban 

centers in Mexico and those networks whose data are 

included in the SINAICA to validate their monitoring 

systems providing them with the technical support they 

require. Guaranteeing that the information contained 

in the data transmitted by the SINAICA is complete, 

inclusive, and necessary for the rational management of 

the air quality will be a priority.

Distributing data that ensure high quality will allow 

more precise estimates of the levels and trends of urban 

pollutants and their potential effects in the ecosystems 

and in the population’s health, which will provide better 

options for their reduction.

. Supporting the Country’s air quality monitoring 

networks in the review, or definition and institution 

of quality assurance and control programs.

Due to the fact that the measurement of the air pollution 

is carried out by different government agencies, groups 

and organizations with different equipment, number of 

stations and laboratories and with different monitoring 

objectives, the Quality Assurance and Control component 

is essential to guarantee any monitoring program, since 

it provides the certainty that the data produced comply 

with the requisites of the established standards, such as 

the data quality criteria set in the DQO.

Because of this, every organization or state involved 

in air quality monitoring must review and/or develop 

its Quality Assurance and Control program, describing 

the monitoring project, measurement requirements and 

defining the specific Quality Assurance and Control 

activities that must be applied to the project with the 

purpose of complying with its objective and the specified 

DQO. The Air Quality Monitoring Procedures Reference 

14.

Framework, developed during the first stage, will guide 

the production and review of these programs.

Likewise, the regional centers will offer training 

courses and technical support for the development and 

inception of the quality assurance and control programs, 

and the Federal Government will support these regional 

centers. Those cities that do not have an air quality monitoring program, but would like to institute one, will also 

receive technical assistance.

. Establishment of audit programs.

An audit is defined as the systematic and independent 

review and evaluation of the systems and activities that 

constitute a procedure to determine if the end products reach the specified objectives (EPA 1998). The 

Environmental Protection Agency defines several kinds 

of audits for established monitoring systems.

Based on national and international experience, the 

kind of audits that will have to be performed by every 

monitoring system in Mexico and their frequency will 

be determined.

The evaluation and characterization of the main 

monitoring networks in the Country started during this 

program’s first stage will be an important information 

input for the establishment of the audit programs. It is 

suggested that the following audits be established (EPA 

2000):

Program of local and regional technical audits: Their 

purpose would be to verify the fulfillment of the quality control and assurance programs of the local and 

regional monitoring systems.

Network review or inspection audits: Dedicated to 

verifying the observance of the established recommendations for the local monitoring systems.

Performance audits: Through the application of this 

kind of audits an evaluation system of the performance 

of the measurement instruments of the monitoring 

systems would be established.

Once the audits to be performed throughout the 

monitoring systems in the Country and their frequency 

are defined, the authorities responsible for these will be 

designated at the state, regional and federal level.

A program will be established that will divide the 

Country in regions within which the audits will be developed and supervised. CENICA, with the support of 

the regional centers, will coordinate these audits. Also, 

through accreditation schemes, interested citizens will be 

able to participate in the process, being first accredited 

as private auditors to increase the efficiency of these 

procedures.

The compliance of the audit activity will have to be 

backed by highly qualified personnel. CENICA will 

15.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 689

offer excellent training supported by international environmental agencies.

The Federal Government will ensure the fulfillment of 

the regional audit programs and will verify compliance 

among regional centers and local monitoring systems.

Establishment of the National 

Atmospheric Monitoring Program, 

PNMA 2007 – 2010

Having diagnosed the current situation including the 

legal, institutional and financial requirements, and having established the tools to fulfill these requirements and 

strategies, the next phase of the National Atmospheric 

Monitoring Program, PNMA, will be designed to support the state plans for the institution of air quality 

monitoring and to provide the equipment that these plans 

will require.

Additionally, this program should introduce a model 

of technical support to include the tools, products, 

and strategies developed during stages 1 and 2 of this 

program, in order to continue providing guidance and 

technical assistance to the other monitoring networks 

already established in the Country.

This second phase of the PNMA 2007 –2010, should 

also foresee the design and institution of a national/regional network to monitor multiple pollutant conditions 

Table 3. Long term activities (Third stage).

Long term objectives Activity Task

11. Satisfaction of the demand for air XIII. Satisfy the demand for air quality 1. - Strengthen the programs for training

quality monitoring from the sites monitoring from the sites identified as and technical updating.

identified as priorities. priorities. 2. - Offer assistance in the identification

of finance sources.

3. - Promote equipping programs

12. Homologation of operative XIV. Homologate operative procedures 1. - Establish a strategy for compliance

procedures at the national level. at the national level. with the Reference Framework.

2. - Develop standard procedures per 

monitoring type.

 3. - Establish a single operation program.

13. Supply of complete, inclusive, and XV. Supply complete, inclusive, and 1. - Establish criteria to evaluate

necessary information for the rational necessary information for the rational compliance with DQO data.

management of air quality. management of air quality. 2. - Spread evaluation criteria.

 3. - Validate the main monitoring 

systems in the Country, especially those 

included in the SINAICA.

14. Supporting the Country’s air quality XVI. Support the Country’s air quality 1. - Review and/or define quality 

monitoring networks in the review, or monitoring networks in the review, assurance and control programs.

definition and institution of quality definition and institution of quality 2. - Start quality assurance and control

assurance and control programs. assurance and control programs. programs.

15. Establishment of audit programs. XVII. Establish audit programs. 1. - Define the type and frequency of 

audits at the national level. 2. - Design a national audit program.

16. Establishment of the National XVIII. Design the PNMA 2007 – 2010. 1. - Design the PNMA 2007 – 2010.

Atmospheric Monitoring Program, 

PNMA 2007 – 2010.

in the main metropolitan areas and in the rural or suburban areas that require it, as well as pollutants classified 

as dangerous or toxic in the areas of the Country where 

their existence is suspected or proved.

All of this effort will only make sense if it is possible 

to commit all participants in the institution and long term 

preservation of this program.

The duration of the third stage would be two years. 

Its activities and tasks are listed in table 3.

Products:

National operative program

Quality assurance and control programs.

Audits’ program

National Atmospheric Monitoring Program, PNMA 

2007 – 2010

Every specific objective of each stage results in activities and tasks required to reach the established goals. 

These activities and tasks, as aforementioned, are listed 

in tables 1, 2, and 3.

References

EPA 1994. Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives 

Process. EPA QA/G-4. United States Environmental 

Protection Agency. Office of Research and Development. 

Washington, D.C. 20460 EPA/600/R-96/055, September 

1994.

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690 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

EPA 1998. Quality Assurance Handbook for Air Pollution 

Measurement Systems. Volume II: Part 1 Ambient Air 

Quality Monitoring Program Quality System Development. 

United States Environmental Protection Agency. Office of 

Air Quality Planning and Standards. USA 1998.

EPA 2000. Guidance on Technical Audits and Related 

Assessments for Environmental Data Operations. EPA 

QA/G-7 Final. United States Environmental Protection 

Agency, Washington, DC, January 2000.

EPA 2002. National Ambient Air Monitoring Strategy. United 

States Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Air 

Quality Planning and Standards. USA, 2002.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 691

Introduction

The focus of public lands forest management has 

recently shifted from emphasizing stand management 

to protecting and restoring ecosystems. Landscape level 

analysis is now an integral part of forest management. 

Coincident with this shifting focus has been a surge of 

computing and geographic information system (GIS) 

technology. Numerous computational tools—simulation 

models, such as the Forest Vegetation Simulator (Dixon 

2003); GIS software, such as ArcView and ARCGIS; data 

recorders; database and spreadsheet software—are now 

readily available to land managers and their staffs. These 

technological tools can assist managers by providing 

realistic projections about what future conditions might 

be like under different management alternatives. They 

can also provide powerful and efficient interfaces that 

vastly improve our ability to understand natural processes 

and conditions.

Early development of landscape-scale modeling tools 

within the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) “family” 

of models began with the Parallel Processing Extension 

(PPE; Crookston and Stage 1991). The PPE permits 

the simulation of stands altogether (in parallel) through 

simulated time—instead of serially (one stand after another). In FVS, parallel processing facilitates not only the 

simulation of landscape-scale managerial decision-making (for example, the scheduling of thinning treatments), 

but also the modeling of landscape-scale ecological 

processes, such as pest contagion and fire behavior. 

The Westwide Pine Beetle Model (FHTET, in press) is 

an FVS extension that takes advantage of the parallel 

processing capabilities of FVS by simulating, on an 

annual time step, between- and within-stand bark beetle 

contagion and bark beetle-induced tree mortality.

Though landscape-scale analyses of forest management 

projects are important and often necessary, applications 

of FVS to landscape analyses are often hindered by incomplete inventory coverage of the landscape. Statistical 

imputation programs and procedures are available to facilitate the “populating” of landscapes with tree list data 

that can then be processed by simulation models. One 

example is the Most Similar Neighbor (MSN) imputation 

program of Crookston and others (2002). Such statistical 

imputations greatly improve our ability to meaningfully 

simulate whole landscapes into the future. Although we 

did not use the MSN program, per se, in the Red River 

watershed analysis, we mention it here because (1) imputing tree data to polygons for landscape analyses can be a 

very worthwhile undertaking, (2) MSN is a good tool to 

do such imputations, and (3) it provides context for our 

description of the Physiographic Information Extraction 

Tool, a software program we developed as part of this 

landscape analysis project.

This paper describes processes involved and tools 

used in a landscape-scale analysis of forest conditions 

in the Red River Watershed (Nez Perce National Forest, 

Idaho; fig. 1). The project arose from local observations 

of increased tree mortality from mountain pine beetle 

(Dendroctonus ponderosae) and western root disease 

(Phellinus weirii), and associated increased fire risk in 

the Red River watershed. In April 2002, the Red River 

Ecosystem Analysis at the Watershed Scale (EAWS) 

Team, the Regional Forest Health Protection office, 

and the Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team 

developed a strategy to use simulation modeling to 

Simulation Tools for Forest Health Analysis: An 

Application in the Red River Watershed, Idaho

Andrew J McMahan, Ecological Modeler, INTECS International, Inc., Ft. Collins, CO

Eric L Smith, Quantitative Analysis Program Manager, Forest Health Technology Enterprise 

Team, USDA Forest Service, Ft. Collins, CO

Abstract—Software tools for landscape analyses—including FVS model extensions, and 

a number of FVS-related pre- and post-processing “tools”—are presented, using an 

analysis in the Red River Watershed, Nez Perce National Forest as an example. We present (1) a discussion of pre-simulation data analysis; (2) the Physiographic Information 

Extraction System (PIES), a tool that can improve the quality of stand level input-data 

prior to its use in FVS simulations; and (3) tools for output-data spatial analysis, including the Event Monitor ArcView Project (FVS-EMAP), the Westwide Pine Beetle Model 

mapping tools, and EnVision.
692 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

assist with the evaluation of current and potential future 

watershed conditions. The strategy was refined over the 

next few months, and completed within the year. This 

paper describes some of the procedures we used in the 

Red River analysis, and outlines, in more general terms, 

types of landscape-level ecological questions to which 

these tools can be applied.

The Red River project utilized a number of software 

tools. All of these tools are readily available through the 

internet. Proprietary software—ESRI’s ArcView and 

ARCGIS software packages, and Microsoft’s Access 

database and Excel spreadsheet software—while available at a cost to the general public, are available to all 

USDA Forest Service personnel as part of their standard 

computing environment.

Some software tools used in the Red River Analysis 

include:

The Physiographic Information Extraction System 

(PIES)

The base model Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS)

The Parallel Processing Extension to FVS

The FVS Event Monitor

The Structural Stage Model (an FVS extension)

The WWPB Model (an FVS extension)

The Western Root Disease Model (an FVS extension)

The FVS Event Monitor ArcView Project (FVSEMAP)

Two WWPB Model ArcView-based mapping tools

Overview of the Red River Analysis 

Area

The Red River watershed is located in the Red River 

Ranger District of the Nez Perce National Forest, Idaho 

(fig. 1). It consists of all or part of thirteen management 

compartments, comprising approximately 103,000 

acres (41,722 hectares). The biophysical classification 

of stands is represented predominantly by five habitat 

type groups (Applegate and others 1993; table 1). Tree 

species are predominantly lodgepole pine, grand fir, 

subalpine fir, Douglas-fir, and Engelmann spruce, with 

smaller amounts of western larch, western redcedar, and 

ponderosa pine. Several stands have had management 

actions performed on them since inventory. For the FVS 

simulations, no management was simulated because 

quantitative data (about removal or residual amounts) 

were not readily available.

Lodgepole pine stands in the watershed experienced 

significant mountain pine beetle (MPB, Dendroctonus 

ponderosae) activity in the decade leading up to this 

analysis. The most recent MPB outbreak commenced in 

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the late 1990s, though significant MPB-induced mortality 

occurred at smaller spatial scales within the watershed 

during early 1990s (Randall and Wulff 2002). An earlier 

outbreak occurred in the mid 1980s, giving rise to much 

of the 1980s-era management and inventory activity. 

Additionally, laminated root disease (Phellinus weirii) 

is prevalent in the landscape. A primary objective of the 

study was to estimate potential future effects of these 

two disturbance agents on tree mortality, stand structure, 

and fuel loading.

Pre-simulation Processes

Gathering Data/Analyzing Current 

Conditions

We assembled numerous forms of data to help us 

characterize the landscape, including: stand exams, aerial 

photo-interpretation (PI) data, aerial detection surveys 

(for MPB), and tabular data characterizing stand-level 

Figure 1. The management compartments of the Red River 

watershed. At the south end is compartment 522, depicted 

in subsequent figures.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 693

disturbance and management histories. Satellite data 

(heavily relied upon by MSN) were not readily available. 

Of the 3955 stands in the watershed, 1723 were inventoried at least once between 1981 and 1996. Essentially 

all of the stands were photo-interpreted in 1986 and 

again in 1996.

Using the 1986 PI data layer as a basis, we stratified 

the landscape by habitat type group, forest type, size 

class, and percent canopy cover. Within each of these 

four categories are PI-defined classes (table 1). Each 

unique combination of the classes, one from each of the 

four categories, represents a stratum; every stand falls 

into a stratum. For example, one stratum represents 

stands classed into HTG 3; forest type: lodgepole pine; 

size class: small sawtimber; percent canopy cover: 70-

100 percent. The Red River watershed, as PId in 1986, 

comprised 216 strata.

The classification of the stands in the landscape into 

strata served two purposes. First, it guided our populating 

of stands with stand exam (tree data) for the modeling exercise (discussed in next section). Additionally, 

it provided a means by which to analyze current and 

historical conditions. For example, comparisons among 

1986 and 1996 PI data layers, yearly aerial detection 

surveys (throughout the 1990s), and stand exam data 

(throughout the 1980s and 90s) can provide insight as to 

where conditions have recently changed, where future 

data collection might need to be concentrated, what portions of a landscape might be susceptible to MPB (or fire, 

or other agents), and where potential managerial problems 

might exist. Although our pre-simulation analysis did not 

specifically probe into these types of “current conditions” 

analyses, these types of geo-processing techniques can 

be extremely useful to address questions such as these. 

For our purposes, these pre-simulation analyses served 

primarily to guide our simulation model-building.

Imputing Tree Data to Non-inventoried 

Stands

To predict future landscape conditions using FVS, 

we needed to (1) establish a point in time to begin the 

simulations, and (2) describe the landscape at that point 

in time (that is, provide the model with appropriate tree 

data). We used 1986 as our simulation start year for a 

number of reasons, two of which are: (1) it is year around 

which most of the stand inventories were conducted, and 

(2) it is a year for which there exists a complete photointerpreted vegetation classification data layer, spatially 

resolved at the stand-level.

Table 1. Red River watershed stratification criteria. A stratum is a unique combination of one class from 

each of the four categories: habitat type group, forest type, size class, and percent canopy cover. 

Classes are defined by the Red River Ranger District’s 1986 photo-interpreted GIS data-layer.

Habitat Type Group (HTG)

HTG number	 Definition

1 Warm and Dry PIPO or PSME/grass types

2 Moderately warm and dry PSME and dry ABGR types

3 Moderately warm and moderately dry PSME or ABGR types

4 Moderately warm and moist ABGR, Asaria, and Clintonia types

7 Cool and Moist Clintonia and Menziesia types

8 Cool and wet Calamagrostis canadensis, Equisetum, Galium, and Streptopus

9 Cool and moderately dry cooler ABLA and PICO types

Forest Type

Class	 Definition: Plurality of overstory is composed of:

1 Pinus ponderosa and/or Pseudotsuga menziesii

2 Pinus contorta

3 Picea engelmannii and/or Abies lasiocarpa

4 Mixed species

Size Class

Class	 Definition: Stand QMD is:

1 0-5”

2 5-9”

3 9-14”

4 >14”

Percent Canopy Cover Class

Class	 Definition: Total Stand %Canopy Cover is:

0 0-10%

1 10-40%

2 40-70%

3 70-100%
694 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

After the stands were stratified (as described above), a 

representative stand exam from each stratum was chosen 

as a surrogate for the remaining un-inventoried stands 

in that stratum. (Methodologies behind how we chose a 

representative stand exam will not be presented here.) 

In cases where a stratum contained no inventoried stand, 

tree data from an inventoried stand in a similar stratum 

was used. We acknowledge that there are numerous 

methods available to populate the landscape. The MSN 

is one example of a (potentially) more rigorous approach. 

The method we implemented, although simple, is effective. Our imputation procedure resulted in a landscape 

fully “populated” with tree data. An extensive sensitivity 

analysis showed that the level of “accuracy” achieved 

by our imputation was sufficient to address the types of 

landscape scale questions that this project was attempting to answer.

Improving Imputations with PIES

Input data used by FVS typically consists of two 

“types” of data: individual tree measurements (“tree 

records”, “tree data”), and stand-level physiographic 

information (slope, elevation, aspect, etc). Tree records 

represent the tree data that will be projected by the model. 

Stand level data consist of variables used in various 

ways by FVS. For example, tree diameter-growth rates 

in FVS utilize slope, aspect, elevation, and (in many 

variants) habitat type. Fire intensity in the Fire and Fuels 

Extension to FVS (Reinhardt and Crookston 2003) is 

strongly influenced by slope. Elevation can be a strong 

controlling variable on simulated beetle dynamics in the 

WWPB Model.

Typical imputation procedures (including MSN) often 

result in an imputed stand inheriting stand level data 

along with its surrogate tree data. In some cases, the 

inheritance of site data from a surrogate stand will contribute significant errors to model predictions because the 

inherited site factors are significantly different from those 

of the imputed stand. As GIS applications are becoming 

more sophisticated, imputing accurate physiographic data 

into simulations is becoming easier.

The Physiographic Information Extraction System 

(PIES) is a simple program that greatly improves the 

quality of physiographic data made available to FVS. 

The PIES utility writes GIS-extracted physiographic data 

into FVS-ready stand list files. (A stand list file is the data 

structure used by FVS to read in stand-level data.).

The PIES utility consists of two programs, one 

operating within a customized ArcView 3.x project 

(FVS-EMAP, discussed later); the other a simple 

FORTRAN-based program operating in Windows DOS. 

The utility requires both a polygonal layer delineating 

stand boundaries, and a raster-based elevation data layer 

(for example, a DEM). The PIES utility allows FVS 

users to extract up to five different physiographic data 

elements from their GIS: slope, aspect, elevation, habitat 

type, and area. The extracted stand-level physiographic 

data are then appropriately inserted into a stand list file 

(SLF). For imputed stands—heretofore non-existent in 

the SLF—PIES will create new SLF records. This new 

record will contain appropriate “pointers” to the imputed 

stand’s surrogate tree data, as well as containing the 

imputed stand’s GIS-extracted physiographic data. The 

PIES utility thus accomplishes two important functions 

for landscape analyses. It facilitates the creation of a 

complete-landscape stand list file. Secondly, it inserts 

into a stand list file physiographic information that is 

potentially more accurate than what would otherwise 

be available to FVS. The end result of our imputation 

procedures was an FVS-ready stand list file composed 

of records representing all 3955 stands of the Red River 

watershed.

Simulation Set-up

The Forest Vegetation Simulator (Dixon 2003; Van 

Dyck 2001) is a keyword driven model. Keywords are 

the means by which users provide instructions to the 

model. The keyword sets we developed for this landscape 

analysis involved many of FVS’ numerous extensions. 

We present here a very cursory overview of the procedures we employed and extensions used. Further details 

about these simulations are provided in McMahan and 

Smith 2003.

The WWPB Model was used to simulate the effects of 

MPB in the landscape. We used aerial detection survey 

(ADS) data to guide our initialization of beginning-ofsimulation beetle “population” levels. Specifically, the 

1986 ADS provided estimates of trees per acre beetle 

killed, acres beetle-infested, and numbers of stands 

infested. We constructed the model’s “beetle history” 

file—used to initialize beginning-of-simulation beetle 

conditions—to reflect the ADS-estimated conditions. 

Construction of keywords simulating environmental 

“stress events”, used to initiate simulated outbreaks, 

was guided by historical climate data (using a Palmer 

Drought Severity Index) and expert opinion about typical 

temporal trajectories of MPB outbreaks. Lodgepole pine 

is the most abundant host to MPB in the landscape, with 

smaller amounts of ponderosa pine.

The Western Root Disease Model (Frankel 1998) was 

used to simulate the effects of laminated root disease 

(LRD, Phellinus weirii) in the landscape. Keyword sets 

parameterizing its behavior were developed by local 

pathologists. All tree species were modeled as potential 

hosts to LRD. Keyword sets were habitat type-group 

specific.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 695

The Structural Stage Model (Crookston and Stage 

1999)—an FVS extension—was invoked in order to 

calculate variables needed by a mountain pine beetle 

hazard rating (Randall and Tensmeyer 2000). The 

hazard rating was translated into FVS Event Monitor 

(Crookston 1990) “code” and included in the simulation. By having FVS calculate stand-level MPB hazard 

over simulated time, we provide a means by which 

to evaluate (1) the imputation procedure, (2) current 

conditions, (3) model behavior, and (4) the hazard rating system itself. These evaluations are accomplished 

via comparing the hazard rating estimates with aerial 

detection survey data, PI data, and model predictions 

of beetle-induced tree mortality.

We conducted a number of simulations (“runs”), including a “no pest” run, runs including both pest models 

simultaneously, and runs simulating each pest by itself. 

Because the focus of this paper is to demonstrate spatial 

analysis software, we present only a very brief description of numerical results.

Simulation Results

All simulations, including the base-model “no pest” 

run, predicted high levels of tree mortality. Tree mortality in the no-pest run represents density-dependent 

and/or “background” mortality, occurring mostly in 

small trees. Runs simulating LRD predicted high 

tree mortality rates throughout most forest types, in 

all but the smallest size-classed stands, and occurred 

predominantly in the first decade of the simulation. 

Runs simulating effects of MPB predicted high rates of 

mortality in the largest pine trees, concentrated in the 

larger size-classed stands, in the two pine forest types. 

Runs simulating both MPB and LRD experienced only 

slightly more mortality than did either of the singleagent runs alone (because there is much overlap in the 

trees killed by the two models.

Simulated MPB-induced mortality (in terms of basal 

area per acre) was highest in the pole-size-classed stands 

of the lodgepole pine forest type. At the landscape scale, 

MPB-induced mortality rates remained relatively low 

for the first decade of the simulation (1986-1996). A 

landscape-wide “outbreak” occurred during the simulation in the late 1990’s continuing to about 2006. Some 

stands, however, experienced high rates of MPB-induced 

mortality early in the simulation.

The Red River watershed, as projected into the future 

by FVS, is a mosaic of stand conditions. Spatial analysis 

of this mosaic can lead us to a better understanding of 

the conditions. In the images presented in the following 

discussion, we focus attention on one compartment—

522—to simplify the presentation.

Spatial Analysis of Simulation 

Output

Standard base-model FVS output data consists of 

tabular data representing stand-level estimates of tree 

growth and mortality, stand density, wood production, 

etc. Concatenating output from multiple stand runs 

provides landscape-level estimates of these metrics. 

Although such analysis provides useful information regarding means and ranges of output variables across the 

landscape, it is lacking in spatial evaluation.

Numerous software tools are now available to assist 

FVS users to spatially analyze simulation output. These 

include the FVS Event Monitor ArcView Project (FVSEMAP, McMahan and others 2002), the WWPB Model 

Annual and Cycle Mapping Tools (AMT and CMT; 

FHTET), and EnVision (USDA Forest Service, Pacific 

Northwest Research Station).

The FVS Event Monitor ArcView Project 

(FVS-EMAP)

The Event Monitor (Crookston 1990) is part of FVS 

that allows users to schedule “activities” during a simulation. One type of activity that a user can schedule is the 

computation of various user-defined output variables over 

simulated time. For example, a user could enter into the 

simulation mathematical expressions, using stand-level 

metrics, to calculate a stand-level hazard rating. After 

processing, FVS makes available these output variables 

in a separate comma-delimited text file (indexed by stand 

number and simulation year).

The FVS-EMAP (McMahan and others 2002) facilitates the “joining” of these user-defined stand-level 

output variables to maps in ArcView. Figure 2 presents an 

example FVS-EMAP-generated map portraying a MPB 

stand hazard rating for compartment 522 in simulatedyear 2001. The hazard rating was calculated within FVS 

by supplying the Event Monitor mathematical expressions representing the hazard rating algorithms of Randall 

and Tensmeyer (2000). Results show large contiguous 

areas of “moderate” hazard, and scattered areas of high 

hazard. Evaluation of the specific location of these high 

hazard areas, in context of the surrounding landscape, 

can provide a land manager with useful information—for 

example where control measures might be more effective 

or more important.

The use of FVS-EMAP requires that a user has an 

ArcView-based shapefile containing a polygonal layer 

defining stand boundaries, along with polygonal identifiers corresponding to the FVS stand identifiers. Using 

FVS-EMAP, one can efficiently produce time-series map 
696 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

displays of FVS model projections of any of the user-defined output variables. Once these data are joined to a GIS, 

numerous spatial statistical analyses can be performed. 

For example, habitat scores could be calculated via the 

Event Monitor, brought into ArcView via FVS-EMAP, 

and then spatial metrics such as habitat edge, connectivity, or fragmentation could be elucidated. Moreover, 

numerous other ArcView-based extensions—such as the 

Spatial Analyst, and the (freeware) Patch Analyst (Elke 

and others 1999)—could be used in conjunction with this 

application to help evaluate spatial data.

The WWPB Model Mapping Tools

The WWPB Model produces number of different 

output files containing data characterizing the simulated 

landscape. The WWPB Model mapping tools—the annual mapping tool (AMT) and the cycle mapping tool 

(CMT)—work very much like FVS-EMAP. The CMT 

reads FVS/WWPB Model output data from two WWPB 

Model output files written at FVS cycle boundaries and 

joins those data to an ArcView-based shapefile. (“Cycles” 

are FVS’s time-units of projection, typically five or ten 

years.) The AMT reads and joins data from a WWPB 

Model output file that is written every projection year 

(within cycles). Maps produced using these tools can be 

useful for analyzing potential bark beetle behavior and 

effects across a landscape.

Figure 3, produced using the CMT, depicts simulated 

MPB-induced basal area mortality over the period 

1991-1995, prior to the simulated landscape-wide 

epidemic. It shows that while most of the area is experiencing low “endemic” levels of simulated MPB, 

a number of stands (in black) have experienced high 

rates of mortality. Thus we see that what constitutes an 

“outbreak” is, to a large degree, scale-dependent. That 

is, the simulated landscape as a whole has not yet experienced an epidemic, but some individual stands have 

experienced epidemic levels of mortality. With these 

WWPB Model mapping tools, one can quickly produce 

time-series maps of simulated landscapes, facilitating the 

analysis of spatial trajectories of simulated outbreaks. 

Note that some of stands experiencing the highest rates 

of mortality during 1991-1995 have a relatively low 

MPB hazard rating in 1996 (fig. 2) because, by then, a 

large proportion of the host basal area in those stands 

has already been consumed by MPB.

EnVision

EnVision (USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station) is a landscape visualization tool that 

can produce realistic images of landscapes from gridbased elevational GIS data (used to build topographic 

terrain) and FVS output data (used to render vegetation) 

(fig. 4). This powerful program enables portrayals of 

viewsheds from virtually any defined point in space, 

and at different time steps. Further, because of its ability to utilize FVS-simulated tree data output, it enables 

rapid viewshed assessments of hypothetical management 

scenarios, or other simulation scenarios—for example, 

Figure 2. MBP hazard rating in simulation-year 1996. Map 

was produced using FVS-EMAP, using the Randall and 

Tensmeyer (2000) hazard rating system calculated within 

FVS via the Event Monitor. Results are from the run that 

simulated effects of MPB.

Figure 3. Simulated MPB-induced basal area mortality during 

the pre-epidemic period 1991-1995. Map was produced 

using the Westwide Pine Beetle Model Cycle Mapping Tool, 

using model results from the run invoking the WWPB Model 

(without the WRD Model).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 697

post-wildfire. Such demonstrations are extremely useful 

for communicating scenarios to the public.

Discussion

Landscape analyses can be conducted at different 

levels of complexity (Smith and others 2002). For 

public lands managers, landscape analyses often need 

to be more complex than a mere accounting of landscape-level means or ranges (of condition classes, for 

example). Indeed, land managers are often interested in 

spatial distribution patterns across a landscape, including 

various “emergent properties” of such patterns, such as 

connectivity, fragmentation, and configuration (of condition classes, for example).

The Forest Vegetation Simulator is a powerful and 

continually evolving set of tools able to simulate a variety 

of ecological processes. While historically it was developed as a stand level analysis tool, the FVS—together 

with various pre-and post-processing tools and extension—is increasingly becoming a tool for landscape-scale 

analyses.

The tools presented here—PIES, the WWPB Model 

and associated mapping tools, FVS-EMAP, and 

EnVision—facilitate the process of “landscape analysis” 

by providing interfaces between geographic databases 

and the simulation model FVS. Such interfacing can 

vastly improve the efficiency with which managers and 

analysts can examine current and projected data.

In addition to the tools presented here, there exist other 

FVS extensions that further improve the capabilities of 

FVS as a landscape analysis tool. The Database (DB) 

Figure 4. Landscape image produced using EnVision. 

Rendered tree data are from FVS-produced output tree data. 

Terrain data are from a raster-based elevational GIS. (Note: 

This image is not from the Red River watershed.).

extension to FVS (Crookston and Gammell 2004) 

greatly facilitates data handling at both the input 

and output “ends” of processing. The DB extension is now fully integrated into all FVS variants. 

Also, the linkage between the Parallel Processing 

Extension (PPE) and the Fire and Fuels Extension 

(FFE) has been recently completed. Although 

this linkage does not yet—by itself—permit 

the simulation of stand-to-stand fire contagion, 

the PPE-FFE linkage will certainly lead to vast 

progress in the realm of landscape-scale fire and 

fuels analyses.

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watershed using the Forest Vegetation Simulator. Internal 

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Health Technology Enterprise Team. 57 p.

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Northern Region, Missoula, MT. 5 p.

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in lodgepole pine on the Red River and Elk City 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 699

Introduction

Millions of acres are at risk of wildland fire in the 

United States. The General Accounting Office has noted 

that, “Primarily as a result of human activities, ecological conditions on 211 million acres – or almost one-third 

of all federal lands and about 10 percent of the nation’s 

total surface area – continue to deteriorate. According 

to a 2001 update of federal wildland fire management 

policy, these ecological conditions have increased ‘the 

probability of large, intense fires beyond any scale yet 

witnessed’” (GAO 2002, p.8; for source of embedded 

quotation, Interagency Federal Wildland Fire Policy 

Review Working Group 2001). Statistics compiled by 

the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) indicate a 

sharp rise in acres burned and in suppression costs over 

the past decade (table 1) (see http://www.nifc.gov).

While over-zealous suppression is cited as one of 

the primary reasons for the problem, many other factors play a role. Climate can be influential in periodic, 

regional-scale fire regimes, and can be an important 

factor in fire use as well as fire suppression planning. 

Development of lands adjacent to and within wildland 

areas presents increasing challenges not only with regard 

to fire suppression and fuels management strategies, but 

also with regard to the nature and level of interactions 

with residents and interest groups who seek to influence 

wildland and fire management policy. Scientific advances 

in understanding the patterns, drivers, and impacts of 

wildland fire and its management offer opportunities 

for addressing the dilemmas facing managers, decision 

makers and the public alike. This paper chronicles two 

related initiatives, one to introduce climate into wildland fire decision-making processes, and the other to 

develop an integrated Geographic Information Science 

(GIS) model for use in strategic planning. Both projects 

Integrating Fire, Climate, and Societal Factors into 

Decision Support for Strategic Planning in Wildland Fire 

Management

Barbara J. Morehouse and Gregg Garfin, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, 

University of Arizona

Timothy Brown, Desert Research Institute, Reno, NV

Thomas W. Swetnam, Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ

Abstract—An El Niño winter in 1998-99, followed by a strong La Niña winter in 1999-

2000, set the stage for potentially large wildfires in the southwestern, southeastern, 

and northwestern forests of the United States. Researchers at the University of Arizona 

organized a three-day workshop to discuss the relationship between synoptic scale climate conditions and wildland fire probability. Over the three days, fire managers, fuels 

managers, fire ecologists, climatologists, and other experts began the task of not only 

learning from each other, but also figuring out how to talk to each other. The workshop 

exceeded the organizers’ expectations and has led to the institutionalization of annual 

fire-climate workshops. The initial workshop also provided the foundations for a subsequent project, completed in July 2004, to build a GIS model that integrates fire, climate, 

and societal values in a manner that specifically supports strategic planning in wildland 

fire management. This paper describes the two parallel paths that emerged from the 

2000 fire-climate workshop and discusses the benefits and challenges of interdisciplinary, collaborative research projects for building regional and local-scale sustainability 

in the face of multiple societal and natural stressors.

Table 1. Acres Burned and Suppression Costs 2000-2004 and 

10-Year Average.

Year Acres Burned Cost

2004 (to date) 7,381,166 Not yet available

2003 2,695,156 $1,326,138,000

2003 6,334,283 $1,661,314,000

2001 2,904,868 $917,800,000

2000 6,482,016 $1,362,367,000

10-year average 3,193,463

Source: National Interagency Fire Center, http://www.nifc.gov; 

accessed 9/1/04.
700 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

are based on an integrated, iterative conceptual model, 

described below.

Integrated, Collaborative, and 

Iterative Science for Decision 

Support

The research activities described in this paper draw 

on concepts of integrated assessment as a model for 

investigating questions, through scientific synthesis, 

that cannot be answered from a singular disciplinary 

perspective. Such research involves explicit efforts to 

deliver the resulting knowledge in ways that are useful 

to society for thinking about issues and making more informed decisions (CIESIN 1995, Parson 2995, Rotmans 

and vanAsselt 1996, Cohen and others 1998).

The Regional Integrated Science and Assessment 

(RISA) program within the National Oceanic and 

Atmospheric Administration’s Office of Global Programs 

(NOAA-OGP), is an example of a program that supports 

regional integrated climate impacts assessment projects 

in several regions of the United States. RISA specifically 

supports experimentation in alternative structures and 

methods for carrying out integrated assessments and is 

one example of the types of funding programs that are 

explicitly interested in bridging the science-society gap. 

RISA focuses on determination of the impacts of climate 

variability and change and identification of ways in which 

climate information may reduce vulnerability and increase 

resilience and adaptation capacity. The program recognizes that “a variety of climatological, social, economic 

and ecological circumstances that interact over different 

spatial and temporal scales...” and details RISA research 

components as involving (1) interdisciplinarity, including 

syntheses of related scientific knowledge, (2) bridging the 

gap between climate and societal interactions on different 

temporal and spatial scales, and (3) development of decision support and services” (Pulwarty 2002).

More broadly, integrated assessment today constitutes 

an important mechanism for addressing compelling societal dilemmas, such as management of wildland fire, 

that occur in complex biophysical and societal contexts. 

Many of the assessments underway accord bridging the 

science-society divide a high priority, in recognition that 

significant benefits can accrue from close and sustained 

collaboration with entities (“stakeholders”) who have a 

stake in the questions being addressed. In particular, iterative research models that encourage ongoing exchanges 

and interactions between stakeholders and researchers in the co-development of science and policy (see 

Jasanoff and Wynne 1998) provide a promising avenue 

for assuring not only that the science remains focused on 

pragmatic questions, but also that the products emanating 

from the research activity are relevant, useful, and usable 

(Baldwin 2000, Gibbons 2000). Indeed, high levels of 

iterativity have been seen as offering potential for greater 

innovation and, ultimately, greater societal utility and 

impact (Lemos and Morehouse forthcoming).

The research activities described in this paper were 

based on these types of iterative integrated research 

endeavors. The climate-fire-fuels forecasting effort was 

carried out under the auspices of the Climate Assessment 

for the Southwest (CLIMAS) project, funded through 

the NOAA-OGP RISA program described above (the 

current cooperative agreement number for CLIMAS 

is NA 16GP2578). Development of the Fire-ClimateSociety GIS model was funded through a grant from 

the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Science to 

Achieve Results (STAR) program (grant number GR828732-01-0).

The following sections provide a brief background 

on climate and wildland fire in the US Southwest, and a 

discussion of how integrated, iterative assessment was 

directed toward accomplishing knowledge exchange and 

decision support through a series of fire-climate workshops, as well as through the Fire-Climate-Society GIS 

model project, which grew out of the first fire-climate 

workshop. The paper concludes with reflections on future 

initiatives that build on the synergies established through 

these endeavors.

Climate and Wildland Fire In 

The US Southwest

As noted above, wildland fuel conditions across the 

United States remain problematical. This is certainly 

the case for the Southwest: fuel loads in many areas are 

extremely high, forests are densely packed with smalldiameter trees, and dead fuels litter the landscape. The 

wildlands of the region tend to be fire-adapted, reflecting 

centuries of recurrent fire patterns at local to regional 

scales. Today, forest managers and scientists explicitly 

recognize the positive role fire plays in promoting forest health (Brown 1985, Baker 1992, Covington and 

Moore 1994, Pyne and others 1996), though fire suppression remains a dominant factor in fire management 

operations. Far less well adapted are societal policies and 

practices, including many decades (50-100 years) of fire 

suppression policy, continued and accelerating land-use 

encroachments on wildlands, and public intolerance of 

risk and reluctance to allow any fire – and especially 

smoke – to affect their geographical areas of habitation, 

recreation, and work. Forested lands dot the landscape in 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 701

Arizona and New Mexico; all attract heavy recreational 

usage and livestock grazing occurs in many areas. Some 

logging also occurs but is generally not a major land or 

resource use at the present time.

In managing fire risk and assessing conditions for 

fire use in the Southwest, as elsewhere, managers routinely take fire weather into account. However, they have 

tended not to pay much attention to predictions made for 

monthly to seasonal and interannual time scales. By contrast, over the past decade, climatologists have improved 

their forecasting ability in some areas, including prediction of El Niños and La Niñas, and other scientists have 

determined that climate exerts an important influence on 

fire regimes in some areas of the United States. The El 

Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) plays a particularly 

important role in modulating wildland fire risk in the US 

Southwest (fig. 1), as well as in the Pacific Northwest 

and the US Southeast (Swetnam and Betancourt 1998, 

Swetnam and others 1999).

Improvements in ENSO forecast accuracy and skill 

has opened the door to possibilities for introducing climate forecasts into strategic planning for management 

of wildland fire and for fire use (including timing and 

location of prescribed burns). ENSO-related climate 

conditions that began in the winter of 1997-1998 provided an unusually good opportunity to bring climate 

forecasters and fire/fuels managers together to initiate a 

dialogue on how climate information might be integrated 

into fire management decision processes. Researchers 

associated with the CLIMAS project partnered with fire 

ecology and climate specialists to organize a workshop 

aimed at facilitating this dialogue.

The Climate-Fire Workshops

El Niño brought unusually wet winters in the 

Southwest and Southeast in 1997-1998; the Southwest 

also experienced a very wet summer in 1999. These 

conditions produced regional abundances of fine fuels. 

The winter of 1998-1999 in the two regions, was, by 

contrast, unusually dry, due the effects of La Niña in 

those regions. By late summer 1999 it became apparent that the two regions would be likely to experience a 

second dry La Niña-spawned winter. Research indicates 

that such combinations of conditions have, in the past 

spawned regionally extensive fire seasons. Indeed, over 

the past 400 years, the sequence of a wet El Niño winter 

followed by dry La Niña winter conditions is closely 

correlated with extensive wildfire occurrences (fig. 2) 

(Swetnam and Betancourt 1998).

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued 

a La Niña forecast for the winter of 1999-2000 with 

a high degree of confidence, prompting a decision to 

hold a workshop, under the auspices of CLIMAS, that 

would bring fire managers and researchers together with 

climatologists, meteorologists, and climate impacts researchers to discuss the implications of the forecast for 

fire management and more broadly to explore interactions 

between climate (defined as processes and observations 

occurring over time scales from a month to millennia; 

“weather” encompasses processes and observations occurring over time scales from immediate to about 3-4 

weeks) and wildfire regimes.

The initial climate-fire workshop took place in late 

February 2000, and included climatologists, fire managers, and fuel managers from the Southwest, Southeast, 

and Northwest, all areas that could potentially benefit 

from ENSO forecasts and other climate information 

products (see Morehouse 2000). The workshop afforded 

opportunities for climatologists to educate fire/fuels 

managers about what sorts of forecasts and other information were available, and what the climate forecasts 

for the coming fire season were, as well as some basics 

about the science behind the forecasts. In turn, the fire 

and fuels managers provided insights into their areas of 

expertise and activity to the climatologists. Fire profesFigure 1. ENSO Patterns in the US Southwest. Source: Climate 

Assessment for the Southwest.

Figure 2. ENSO and Fire in the US Southwest.
702 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

sionals learned about the difference between “weather” 

and “climate,” what climate parameters can and cannot 

be predicted, and which parameters have not yet been 

explored, and uncertainties associated with the science 

of forecasting, regional differences in forecasts. They 

also learned about issues associated with downscaling, 

particularly the point at which downscaling degrades data 

quality to an unacceptable level in terms of both time 

and space; and about what types of climate information 

can be usefully be applied at local scales. Climatologists 

learned from fire experts about topics such as the nature 

and practice of fire management, what types of climate 

information products fire managers want, what types of 

information are needed, and what research topics might 

be most productively pursued.

Information needs identified at the workshop included 

a call for “one-stop shopping” rather than having to thread 

one’s way through a thicket of web pages; keeping a focus 

on commonly used products requested by the fire management community as well as new products; providing 

basic climate information at the regional level to allow 

assessment of climate norms and extremes; product and 

information guides pitched at the appropriate technical 

level; and more opportunities for interaction/feedback. 

Final recommendations included, among others, development of tools that integrate climate into environmental 

impact statement (EIS) processes and into large-scale 

National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) planning 

efforts; development of tools for use in planning and 

decision making, including climate-fire regime modeling 

tools; and assignment of climatologists to teams revising 

land management plans. These latter recommendations 

inspired a group of UA researchers to write of a proposal 

to the EPA-STAR program to fund a three year project to 

develop an integrated fire-climate society GIS model (described later in this paper). Establishment of an ongoing, 

dynamic assessment process and holding another meeting 

of the workshop group were also suggested. These latter recommendations were addressed through two more 

years of workshops, followed by efforts to operationalize 

an annual fire-climate assessment process.

During the following year, 2000-2001, the organizers 

convened two workshops, with the goal of building on 

the success of the first year’s endeavors (see Garfin and 

Morehouse 2001). While the climate forecasts for the 

winter season were not as compelling as those that had 

prompted the previous workshop, the devastating 2000 

fire season, at that time the worst in 75 years, provided a 

strong impetus to reconvene for the purposes of further 

exploring the potential links between climatology and 

fire/fuels management. In addition, the higher level of 

uncertainty associated with the 2000-2001 winter forecasts provided an opportunity to explore the implications 

of inherent variabilities in climate forecasting skill and 

accuracy, topics of potentially critical interest to decision 

makers poised to integrate such information into their 

decision processes.

The first of the two workshops was held in midFebruary 2001. Based on the previous year’s experience, 

the organizers recognized a critical need to also inform 

individuals higher up in fire management organizational 

structures about the potential utility of climate information for fire management and the value of the interactions 

generated through the workshop process. For this 

workshop, regional-level representatives were invited 

from the fire management, fire research, integrated assessment, and climate science communities, covering 

much of the United States and Alaska. Members of the 

Joint Fire Science Program also participated. A second 

workshop, held in mid-March 2001, focused specifically 

on climate-fire linkages in the Southwest and adjacent 

area of Mexico, and on building relationships between 

southwestern fire and fuels managers and key climatologists.

The workshops occurred in a climatological context 

of persistently drier and warmer-than-normal weather 

prevailing over many of the nation’s forested areas, 

leading in turn to record dryness of fuel loads in some 

areas. Reductions in spring rainfall, including a failure of 

May-June rains in the Northwest and northern Rockies, 

poor recovery of relative humidity and a general moisture 

deficit provided an unprecedented opportunity to continue the fire-climate dialogue. Workshop topics included 

examination of links between fire and long and short-term 

climate variations, communication and interpretation 

of forecasts and the uncertainties associated with those 

forecasts, and stakeholder-driven integrated assessment 

initiatives having a bearing on fire management. A retrospective look at the 2000 fire season, including the spring 

2000 Cerro Grande fire in Los Alamos, New Mexico 

provided a focal point for discussion of the challenges 

facing fire managers and of potential uses of climate information for reducing vulnerability to damages caused 

by large wildland fires.

Presentations were also made regarding initiatives 

being supported by the Joint Fire Science Program and 

about integrated assessment activities, including a first 

introduction to the Fire-Climate-Society GIS modeling project, newly funded by EPA-STAR and formally 

initiated in February 2001. As with the previous year’s 

meeting, recommendations for research and climate 

information development were proposed, including 

(among others) improvement in knowledge transfer 

processes and rationalization in delivery of information 

from disparate sources to make locating information 

easier; improvements in observation networks, data 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 703

collection; data and database access at scales from local 

to global; more scientific analysis of key variables, such 

as wind and its association with synoptic climatology; 

better access to fire data (e.g., fire starts); research into 

linkages between climate and the Fire Danger Rating 

System; inclusion of climate into existing fire model 

software; and development of a climatology primer for 

fire managers and decision makers. While not all of these 

recommendations have been acted upon, the list remains 

an important source for identifying and supporting additional research and development efforts.

A third workshop was held in the winter of 2001-

2002. This time topics included, in addition to climate 

forecasting, presentations on smoke modeling, improvements in long-range predictions for land management, 

a talk by a representative of a city fire department, and 

a special session on social science perspectives on fire. 

One output of the meeting was the first-ever climate-fire 

consensus forecast, developed in a side meeting by the 

group of climatologists who participated in the meeting. 

The meeting was important for cementing synergies 

within and among the climatology and fire management 

communities, and for reinforcing the links between fire 

scientists and managers more broadly.

The winter of 2003 saw a transition from the original 

workshop format to a national process collaboratively 

organized by the Predictive Services Office of the 

National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC) and CLIMAS. 

Persistent drought conditions throughout much of the 

US West provided a pivotal theme for the meeting 

(Brown 2003). The meeting, held in late winter 2003, 

brought together climatologists, fuels specialists, 

and fire meteorologists from the Geographical Area 

Coordination Centers (GACCs) to develop national 

and regional maps representing fire-climate forecasts 

for the coming fire season. The effort resulted in the 

first-ever integrated fire-climate-fuels forecast map, as 

well as forecast maps for each of the GACCs (Garfin 

and others 2003). The exercise was repeated in 2004, 

again resulting in production of special forecasts for 

fire management (fig. 3). The effort is now transitioning 

from an experimental effort under CLIMAS auspices 

to an operational effort under the headed up by NIFC’s 

Predictive Services Office.

The workshop process and the operationalization of 

the fire-climate forecasting effort exemplify a successful 

employment of an iterative, integrated, and collaborative 

research process to address some of the multiple stresses 

decision makers regularly confront. The fire-climate forecasting process, which began as a process of exploration 

of potential common interests and synergies, has evolved 

into a process by which researchers, climate forecasters, 

and decision makers continue to meet to co-develop and 

co-produce forecasts specifically tailored for wildland 

fire management.

The Fire-Climate-Society 

Integrated GIS Model for 

Decision Support

As noted above, an outcome of the first fire-climate 

workshop was the writing of a research proposal to the 

EPA-STAR program to develop an integrated fire-climate-society GIS model to be used for decision support 

(Morehouse and others 2000). The project, funded for 

three years, involved an interdisciplinary team of researchers from the University of Arizona who represented 

fuels, climate, remote sensing, fire history, GIS, social 

science, and public outreach expertise. Over the course 

of the research and development process, Fire-ClimateSociety, Version 1 (FCS-1) took shape as a GIS-based 

tool that could be used not only by fire experts but also 

by community members to explore fire risk conditions 

under different climate scenarios and component weighting schemes.

The model, which is supported on the University of 

Arizona’s Wildfire Alternatives (WALTER) web site, allows users to construct maps at a scale of one kilometer 

(the lowest level to which climate data could be downscaled) for four specific study areas: the Catalina-Rincon 

Mountains adjacent to Tucson, Arizona; the Huachuca 

Mountains adjacent to Sierra Vista, Arizona and Fort 

Huachuca Army Base; the Chiricahua Mountains in rural 

southeastern Arizona, and the Jemez Mountains adjacent 

to Los Alamos, New Mexico.

Figure 3. Example of National Wildland Fire Outlook. Source: 

National Interagency Fire Center, http://www.nifc.gov, 

accessed 9/1/04.
704 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The model includes two submodels, one representing 

fire hazard components, and the other representing values 

at risk components. The user selects a climate scenario 

from a special climate scenario selector, then proceeds 

to assign weights to the models components through 

pair-wise comparisons of the components within each 

submodel, then of the two submodels. Based on these 

inputs, the model produces maps of each component 

and each submodel, and a fire risk map that combines 

all components.

The WALTER web site also features options whereby 

stakeholders can organize group-level as well as individual participation in the modeling exercise. This feature 

is designed to foster communications about fire management issues not only across expert communities but also 

between expert and community groups. Development 

of FCS-1 involved highly interdisciplinary interactions 

among the project researchers and a series of iterative 

meetings with potential users of the model. These meetings were especially important for obtaining feedback 

early enough in the development process to allow adjustments and for identifying sources of information and 

insight not otherwise available to the team.

FCS-1 includes nine components, divided between 

two submodels. The fire hazard submodel includes five 

components: fire return interval departure, fuel moisture 

stress index, large fire ignition probability, lightning 

probability, and human factors of fire ignitions. The 

values-at-risk submodel includes four components: recreation value, species habitat richness, property value, 

and personal landscape values. A schematic of the model 

and details about each of the components are available on 

the WALTER web site (http://walter.arizona.edu). With 

this array of variables, FCS-1 goes beyond existing fire 

models that incorporate weather and in some cases basic 

economic variables to provide options based on climate 

scenarios relevant to the four study areas and to include 

a richer array of societally important values at risk from 

wildland fire.

Based on user input, FCS-1 produces fire risk maps 

that may be analyzed at multiple scales, ranging from 

the entire mountain range to a 1 kilometer2 pixel. Users 

may experiment by running the model using different 

climate scenarios and/or different weightings in the pairwise comparison of the model components, and they 

have the option of saving the maps they have produced 

so that they can refer to them later for purposes such 

as making detailed comparisons of the similarities and 

differences shown on the maps or for sharing results in 

group settings.

FCS-1 is accompanied by additional information on 

the WALTER web site, including an interactive explanation of key legal policies, dynamic vegetation maps, fire 

history maps, and a wildfire-climate regression tool. The 

WALTER web site itself is designed with usability very 

much in mind: navigation is easy, and strong effort was 

directed toward ensuring that the content is easily understood. Importantly, the model allows use of the kinds 

of climate forecasts developed through the fire-climate 

workshop process: the user consults the forecast for 

the coming fire season, and selects one or more closely 

analogous scenarios available for the model.

In explicitly seeking to draw ordinary citizens as well 

as experts into exploration of wildfire alternatives, the 

WALTER web site and FCS-1 represent an innovative 

approach to co-development and use of fire models 

through interdisciplinary research and development, 

and through collaborative iteration between scientists, 

decision makers, and community members in the four 

study areas. Both the web site and the model encourage 

exploration of how different factors influence fire risk, 

and provide a framework for participatory decision making processes. In providing a means, through climate 

scenario analogues, for reflecting climate forecasts in 

the running of the model, FCS-1 provides a direct connection with the ongoing fire-climate forecast initiative 

described above.

Conclusions and Looking to 

the Future

The fire-climate workshops and the FCS-1 modeling effort represent parallel but interconnected paths 

for linking science and society in a common effort to 

improve strategic planning for wildland fire management. In part, the success of these efforts derives from 

a confluence of events: climatic conditions posing high 

threat of fire risk, increased public awareness of the 

unsustainable conditions of the nation’s forests, and 

heightened interest among governmental funding agencies in supporting efforts to bring science to bear on these 

problems. Success also derives from the willingness of 

scientists, fire managers, and other decision makers to 

commit to an ongoing, multi-year effort of collaboration and iteration to make sure that the multi-directional 

knowledge transfer process was maximally productive 

in terms of development of useful, relevant, and usable 

decision tools.

Good foundations have been set, but much remains 

to be done. Research needs range from improvements 

in knowledge about paleo, historical, and future climate 

variability and change to improvements in climate and 

fuels forecasting, vegetation modeling, fire emissions, 

fire-climate relationships, and understanding of ecological variability and change. Also needed are research 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 705

efforts that explicitly take into account land use and land 

use changes, focus on continued development of stateof-the-art decision support tools, examine of decision 

processes associated with use (or non-use) of these tools, 

and assess the roles of human values, behaviors, and philosophies in heightening or diminishing wildland fire risk 

and vulnerability to fire impacts. In fire-climate-society 

integrated modeling, advances that need to be made include being able to integrate dynamical capabilities such 

as bringing real-time climate forecasts into the model and 

developing capabilities to integrate dynamical change in 

variables such as vegetation cover and fire perimeters. 

Expansion of the model to other sites, particularly within 

the Southwest is also a crucial future step.

Those who have participated in the fire-climate workshop and FCS-1 development activities are committed 

to continuing to build upon the existing iterative model 

of integrated research in support of decision making, 

and to sustaining the synergies that have been developed. Given the prospect of continued high fire hazard 

over the foreseeable future (GAO 2004, Westerling and 

Swetnam 2003, Dale and others 2001), the effort is an 

important one.

References

Baker, WL. 1992. Effects of settlement and fire suppression 

on landscape structure. Ecology 73: 1879-1887.

Baldwin, S. 2000. Interactive social science in practice: new 

approaches to the production of knowledge and their 

implications. Science and Public Policy 27(3): 183-194.

Brown, JK. 1985. The ‘unnatural fuel buildup’ issue. In 

Proceedings, Symposium and Workshop on Wilderness 

Fire. USFS General Technical Report INT-182, pp. 127-

128.

Brown, T. 2003. Potential impact of drought on the 2003 fire 

season with respect to fire regimes and condition classes. 

CEFA Special Report 2003-01. CEFA, Desert Research 

Institute, Reno, Nevada. April 15, 2003.

Cohen, S, D Demerritt, J Robinson, and D Rothman. 1998. 

Climate change and sustainable development: towards 

dialogue. Global Environmental Change 8(4): 341-371.

Consortium for International Earth Science Information 

Network (CIESIN). 1995. Thematic Guide to Integrated 

Assessment Modeling of Climate Change [online]. 

University Center, Michigan. CIESIN URL: http://sedac.

diesin.org/mva/iamcc/tg/TGHP.html. Accessed 7/22/98.

Covington, WW and MM Moore. 1994. Southwestern 

ponderosa forest structure: changes since Euro-American 

settlement. Journal of Forestry 92: 39-47.

Dale, VH, LA Joyce, S McNulty, RP Neilson, MP Ayres, MD 

Flannigan, PJ Hanson, LC Irland, AE Lugo, CJ Peterson, 

D Simberloff, FJ Swanson, BJ Stocks, and BM Wotton. 

2001. Climate change and forest disturbances. Bioscience 

51(9): 723-734.

Garfin, GM, T Wordell, T Brown, R Ochoa, and BJ Morehouse. 

2003. National Seasonal Assessment Workshop. Final 

Report. February 25-28, 2003, Mesa, Arizona. Institute for 

the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, 

Arizona.

Garfin, GM, and BJ Morehouse. 2001. Fire in the West. 

Proceedings of the 2nd and 3rd climate-fire workshops. 

Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of 

Arizona, Tucson, Arizona.

General Accounting Office (GAO). 2004. Wildland fires: 

Forest Service and BLM need better information and a 

systematic approach for assessing the risks of environmental 

effects. Report to Congressional Requesters. Report No. 

GAO-04-705, June 2004.

Gibbons, M. 2000. Mode 2 society and the emergence of 

context-sensitive science. Science and Public Policy 27(3): 

159-163.

Jasanoff, S and B Wynne. 1998. Science and decision making. 

In (eds.) S. Rayner and EL Malone, Human Choice and 

Climate Change: The Societal Framework, Vol. 1, pp. 1-88. 

Columbus, OH: Battelle Press.

Morehouse, BJ (ed.). 2000. The Implications of La Niña and El 

Niño for Fire Management. Workshop proceedings. Institute 

for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona, Tucson, 

Arizona. http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/conferences/ 

fire2000/index.html.

Morehouse, BJ, TW Swetnam, JT Overpeck, SR Yool, 

GL Christopherson, and BJ Orr. Assessing the consequences of interactions between human activities and a 

changing climate. Proposal submitted to the EPA-STAR 

program.

Parson, EA. 1995. Integrated assessment and environmental 

policy making: in pursuit of usefulness. Energy Policy 23 

(4/5): 463-475

Pulwarty, R. 2002. Regional Integrated Sciences and 

Assessments Program. NOAA Office of Global Programs, 

1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1210, Silver Spring, MD, 

USA.

http://www.ogp.noaa.gov/library/ensosig/ensosig12.

htm#Global%20Programs. Accessed 8/31/04.

Pyne, SJ, PL Andrews, and RD Laven. 1996. Introduction to 

Wildland Fire, 2nd ed., New York: Wiley.

Rotmans, J and M Van Asselt. 1996. Integrated assessment: 

a growing child on its way to maturity: an editorial essay. 

Climatic Change 34: 327-336.

Swetnam, TW and JL Betancourt. 1998. Mesoscale disturbance and ecological response to decadal climatic 

variability in the American southwest. Journal of Climate 

11: 3128-3147.

Swetnam, TW, C Allen, and JL Betancourt. 1999. Applied 

historical ecology: using the past to manage for the future. 

Ecological Applications 9(4): 1189-1206.

Westerling, AL and TW Swetnam. 2003. Interannual to decadal 

drought and wildfire in the western United States. EOS 

84(49): 545-560.
706 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

During the past five years the western United States 

has incurred increased economic and social costs due to 

wildfire. In this period billions of dollars have been spent 

on fire suppression, hundreds of structures have burned 

and many firefighters have lost their lives (NIFC 2004). 

One of the primary reasons for the increased costs of 

wildfire is development in the wildland-urban interface 

(WUI). With high rates of development over the past 

three decades many WUI communities in the Western 

United States are increasingly at risk for loss of property, 

life, and scenic value. In response to increased exposure 

to wildfire, hundreds of communities have developed 

strategies to alleviate wildfire danger through planning 

and public education. This paper examines the impact 

of wildfire mitigation planning based on interviews in 

10 Colorado counties and survey data from 300 counties 

in the western U.S.

Background

As fire-prone areas become more populated an increasing number of individual and social assets are exposed 

to wildfire. In addition to firefighting, the social costs 

of wildfire include other emergency response expenses, 

mitigation, property loss by individuals, loss of natural resources and loss of human lives. In 2000 alone, over eight 

million acres of public land burned; suppression costs 

were over $1.3 billion; 731 structures were destroyed; 

and sixteen firefighters died (National Interagency Fire 

Center 2004). The arid Intermountain West lives under 

persistent threat from wildfire and is also the fastest 

growing region in the country.

Communities address wildfire vulnerability through 

emergency response and mitigation. Mechanisms for 

emergency response are well established but increasingly expensive as more and more homes in mountain 

communities need to be protected. Mitigation programs 

are less well established but are the focus of discussion 

in many communities as they look for ways to diminish 

the danger and cost of wildfire. Mitigations are often 

promoted by fire chiefs who see that the danger posed 

by development in high-risk areas may exceed their 

capacity to respond. Federal Emergency Management 

Agency (FEMA) regulations encourage communities 

to adopt plans for hazards that include land use mitigations. The Hazard Mitigation Grant Program and the 

Pre-Disaster Mitigation Programs call for communities 

to have locally adopted, all-hazard mitigation plans by 

November 1, 2004 in order to be eligible for mitigation 

grant money (FEMA 2004). While these regulations are 

expected to generate a considerable number of new plans, 

Wildfire Mitigation and Private Lands: Managing 

Long-Term Vulnerabilities

Brian Muller, Assistant Professor, and Stacey Schulte, Doctoral Student, University of 

Colorado at Denver, College of Architecture and Planning, Environmental Design 

Building, Boulder, CO

Abstract—Long-term management of wildfire vulnerability requires strategies that address complex interactions between fire ecology and human settlement. In this paper, 

we examine the integration of wildfire mitigation and land use planning in county governments in the western U.S. This research relies on data from two sources. First, we 

conducted a survey of land use mitigations in over 300 forested counties in the Western 

United States. Planning directors in each county were asked to identify and assess land 

use planning tools adopted in their county for the purpose of reducing wildfire risk. 

Second, we interviewed wildfire mitigation staff from 10 Colorado counties to better 

understand problems in implementation of land use mitigations. We find that many 

forested counties across the Western U.S. have adopted land use mitigation programs 

focusing on regulation of new subdivisions and public education. Many fewer counties 

have adopted regulatory programs focusing on existing structures or development of 

individual parcels outside subdivisions. Rapid rates of development outside subdivisions may pose substantial, continuing wildfire risks in Western U.S. counties that are 

not addressed in many land use mitigation programs.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 707

many land use-related wildfire mitigation programs are 

already in place.

Prior research offers conflicting perspectives on the 

value of land use strategies in wildfire hazard mitigation. A study of wildfires in California found that no 

homes were lost in communities with comprehensive 

wildfire planning; a number of structures were lost in 

communities that had not adopted land use planning or 

regulation designed to reduce wildfire impact (Rice and 

Davis 1991). Other research suggests that site and building codes are more effective than land use controls in 

reducing damage from wildfire (Scott 1995). Studies of 

building site and construction show that defensible space 

(Manning 1990, Ramsey and Dawkins 1993, Wilson and 

Ferguson 1986) and roof material (Foote 1994, Rice and 

Martin 1996, Wilson 1988, Wilson 1962) are effective 

means of reducing structure loss from wildfire.

Study Method

This paper is part of a larger effort to evaluate the influence of wildfire mitigation on land use planning practices 

in county governments. In this paper, we review the types 

of land use mitigation programs adopted at a county level 

over the past decade and their implications for reducing 

risk. This research is based on two data sources. In the 

spring of 2004 surveys were sent to over 300 county 

planning directors and wildfire mitigation coordinators 

in California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, 

Nevada, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming. In order to 

target those counties with highest wildfire risk the survey 

was limited to counties containing U.S. Forest Service 

land. Respondents were asked to identify and evaluate 

land use planning tools that are used to reduce wildfire 

risk. They were also asked to describe risk assessment, 

the structure and financing of their programs, implementation and effectiveness. The statistics below are based 

on a 57 percent response rate. The second data source 

is a series of interviews conducted with officials from 

county planning departments, building departments and 

fire districts in 10 Colorado counties (tables 1 and 2). In 

Colorado, the catastrophic fire season of 2002 motivated 

many communities across the state to develop wildfire 

mitigation programs. The objective of the interviews 

was to find out how counties are responding to increased 

Table 1. Subdivision Regulations by County in Ten Colorado Counties.

Emergency 	 Defensible 	 Building 	 Building Site 	 Firefighting

County Access Space Standards Location Water Supply

Archuleta x x x x

Clear Creek x x x x

Delta x x

Eagle x x x x x

Gunnison x* x*

La Plata x x x

Ouray*** x x x x x

Routt x x x* x x

San Miguel

Summit x x x

Table 2. Individual Property Regulations by County in Ten Colorado Counties.**

Emergency 	 Defensible 	 Building 	 Building Site 	 Firefighting

County Access Space Standards Location Water Supply

Archuleta

Clear Creek x x*

Delta

Eagle x x x x x

Gunnison

La Plata

Ouray*** x x x x x

Routt x x*

San Miguel

Summit x x

*only in overlay zone

**does not include regulations for renovations

***regulations based on point system
708 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

wildfire hazard, how effectively land use measures are 

working from the perspective of mitigation planners, and 

what county officials think are the obstacles to use of land 

use planning as a wildfire mitigation tool. Respondents 

were asked to identify and evaluate land use planning 

tools that are used to reduce wildfire risk and describe 

the role of perceived risk, risk assessment, and structure 

and financing of their programs.

Findings

According to our survey results, land use mitigations 

have been adopted widely among county governments in 

the Western U.S. 72 percent of respondents have plans, 

policies, or regulations that address wildfire mitigation 

through land use planning. Twenty-one percent have 

a staff person dedicated to wildfire mitigation. Thirtyeight percent have received funding from federal or state 

sources. Sixty-seven percent of responding counties have 

undertaken hazards mapping to identify high hazard 

areas. Thirty percent of responding counties indicated 

they have public facilities policies that mitigate wildfire 

hazard, for example requiring proximity to water supply or fire station. These programs are of two types. (1) 

Mitigation of Existing Development. Hazard can be 

mitigated on existing development through education, 

assistance and other encouragement for mitigation of 

homes and neighborhoods through fuels management 

and other site-specific investments. (2) Mitigation of 

New Development. Future development can be mitigated 

through regulations that require defensible space, fireresistant construction and “firewise” designs. Mitigation 

of new development occurs through regulation of subdivisions or individual properties.

Mitigation of Existing Development

Survey respondents indicate that mitigation of existing 

structures is more difficult to implement than mitigation 

of new development. Requiring mitigation on existing 

properties is “politically unpopular.” As a result, many 

counties have turned to voluntary education and assistance programs. Fifty percent of survey respondents 

said they have public education programs and 39 percent 

have fuel management assistance for private property 

owners.

Respondents had varying assessments of the value of 

education and voluntary mitigation assistance. “Making 

them [county residents] understand the long-term risk 

is difficult” according to one emergency management 

director. He estimates that only 25 percent of homeowners in his county are mitigating voluntarily. After the 

catastrophic fire season of 2002, a wildfire mitigation 

officer in another county put an advertisement in the local newspaper offering free mitigation assessments. “My 

phone rang off the hook” she commented, adding that 

people understand the benefits of mitigation after even a 

little education. Without mitigation education, “Everyone 

thinks they have their own private engine.” What many 

homeowners do not understand is that firefighters are 

more willing to defend houses that have already been 

mitigated.

Officials in most counties feel that insurance companies could have a significant impact on homeowner 

mitigation by making mitigation a requirement for coverage. A site development inspector commented, “What 

would help is if all the insurance companies would get on 

the same page. That would make my job a lot easier.” At 

least one insurance company, State Farm, has started to 

create a market incentive for mitigation by telling policy 

holders that they need to be “Firewise.” The company 

has initiated a pilot program of assessing policyholders’ 

properties for wildfire risk.

Mitigation of New Development

Mitigation for new development is the focus of most 

county programs. These mitigation requirements are 

implemented through subdivision review, site review 

or building permits. Most survey respondents from 

Western U.S. counties have adopted some subdivision 

regulations related to wildfire risk; individual lot development appears to be regulated more loosely from a 

wildfire perspective. For example, more than half of the 

respondents regulate water supply and emergency access 

on subdivisions; less than a third have adopted regulations in these areas for individual lots. The exception 

to this regulatory distinction between subdivisions and 

individual lots concerns building codes. About one-third 

of the respondent counties use building codes to regulate 

wildfire risk for subdivisions, and about the same percentage on individual lots.

In Tables 1 and 2, we present types of regulations adopted in Colorado case study counties. These regulations 

have been generalized for comparative purposes. For 

example, we have aggregated defensible space requirements, which in different counties can be anywhere from 

30 feet of cleared area around a home to over 100 feet 

depending on the nature of the building site. These tables 

suggest again that the regulatory apparatus for individual 

lots is less well-developed than for subdivisions.

In our interviews, county officials expressed significant concern about wildfire risk from individual lot 

development, which dominates growth patterns in many 

areas of Colorado. They discussed four primary obstacles 

to wildfire regulation for individual lot development.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 709

State law exempts large parcels from subdivision 

review. County planners argue that they have limited 

powers of development review on larger lots (which 

comprise the majority of new wildland-urban interface 

development in many counties). In these counties, 

mitigation planners feel that building codes are the 

only legal mechanism available to them for enforcing 

mitigation on larger lots, and that building codes have 

limited effectiveness.

Counties do not have the staff time to implement 

regulations on individual properties. Although many 

county mitigation planners would like to adopt regulations that affect individual parcels they would also 

need new staff to implement the regulations. Creating 

new staff positions is not feasible for most counties in 

a time of fiscal austerity.

Political culture in many counties is “anti-regulation.” Although the demographic makeup of western 

counties is changing rapidly, there continues to be 

considerable resistance to government regulation. 

Wildfire mitigation regulations are often seen as an 

infringement on private property rights.

There is little public demand for more wildfire 

regulation. County officials indicate that residents 

of the wildland-urban interface were responsive to 

educational programs after the dramatic fire season 

of 2002. They had forgotten about wildfire risk by the 

next season, however. Officials say that over the past 

two years they have a hard time getting residents to 

come to public meetings or read educational material. 

As a result there is little pressure on public officials 

to create or strengthen regulations.

Conclusion

A substantial percentage of new development across 

the West is now occurring within the framework of wildfire land use regulations. In this respect, land use planning 

tools are an important and growing dimension of overall 

wildfire mitigation practice. However, use of these tools 

continues to be restrained by the political culture of many 

1.

2.

3.

4.

rural areas. Existing development is weakly regulated. 

New development outside subdivisions also receives less 

attention in the mitigation planning process. Rapid rates 

of development outside subdivisions may pose substantial, continuing wildfire risks that are not addressed in 

many land use mitigation programs.

References

Federal Emergency Management Agency. (2004) http://www.

fema.gov/fima/planning.html.

Federal Wildland Fire Management Policy and Program 

Review (1995) Federal Register 60(120):32492.

Foote, E. I. D. (1994) Structure Survival on the 1990 Santa 

Barbara Paint Fire: A Retrospective Study of UrbanWildland Interface Fire Hazard Mitigation Factors. M. S. 

Thesis, University of California, Berkeley, 294 p.

Manning, D. (1990) “Vegetative Management in the WildlandUrban Interface.” Fire Management Notes. 51(4):14-15.

National Interagency Fire Center. (2004) Wildland Fire 

Statistics. www.nifc.gov/stats.

Ramsey, G. C., and D. Dawkins. (1993) Building in Bushfire 

Prone Areas: Information and Advice. CSIRO SAA 

Handbook 36.

Rice, C. E. and R. E. Martin. (1986) “Hazard Assessment for 

Potential House Loss through Wildfire.” In: Proceedings 

of Intl. Union of Forest Research Organizations. Ljubljana, 

Yugoslavia.

Rice, C., and J. B. Davis. (1991) Land-Use Planning May 

Reduce Fire Damage in the Urban Wldland Intermix. Gen. 

Tech. Rep. PSW-127. Berkeley, CA: Pacific Southwest 

Research Station, Forest Service, U.S. Department of 

Agriculture; 13 p.

Scott, T.A. (1995)” Prefire Management along California’s 

Wildland/Urban Interface: Introduction and Session 

Overview”. In: Brushfires in California’s Wildlands: 

Ecology and Resource Management. International Assoc. 

of Wildland Fire, Fairfield, WA. pp. 3-10.

Wilson A. A. and I. Ferguson. (1986) “Predicting the 

Probability of House Survival during Bushfires.” Journal 

of Environmental Management 23:259-270.

Wilson, A. A. G. (1988) “Width of Firebreak That Is Necessary 

to Stop Grass Fires: Some Field Experiments.” Canadian 

Journal of Forestry 18: 682-687.

Wilson, C.C. (1962) “A Progress Report on Forest Fire 

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710 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Conventional management of water resources cannot meet water supply for future development in arid, 

semi-arid, and subtropical countries (UNCED, 1992; 

Postel, 2000). Northern Mexico is placed within the arid, 

semi-arid zone belt of the northern hemisphere. In addition to highly erratic and variable water supply given 

by hydro-climate variations (Návar, 2001; Návar, 2004; 

Schmandt and others 2001); unsustainable practices of 

hydrologic resources are shaping new approaches to 

meet future demands. Unsustainable practices of water 

resources include high per capita water use, with a little 

over 300 l per day per person in several regions, and a 

high ratio of volume of irrigation to productivity, a common feature in several irrigation districts (Návar, 2004). 

High losses of water in the distribution systems of most 

cities (30-40 percent) (CNA, 2000), contamination of 

streams, reservoirs, and aquifers (De León Gomez y 

Medina Barrera, 2000; Flores-Laureano y Navar, 2002; 

Lizárraga, 2003), and abatement of reservoirs and river 

fragmentation (CONAFOR, 2004) are also indicators of 

unsustainable management practices of water resources. 

Other biological indicators are losses of species diversity 

in streams (Contreras and Lozano, 1994; Edwards and 

Contreras, 1997) and changes in species structure of 

plants in streams (Guerra, 1998). These are partially the 

result from several unsustainable management practices 

such as river contamination, drawdown of reservoirs, and 

river fragmentation.

Future conventional water supplies in the region are 

not warranted because of demographic growth and the 

presence of drought spells. In addition, Mulholand and 

others (1997) and the IPCC (2001) predicted using general circulation models that northern Mexico may receive 

10 percent less rainfall and generate between 5-10 percent 

less streamflow with increasing temperatures by global 

warming. Návar (2001) observed that in the presence 

of worst drought episodes on record, several regions of 

northern Mexico receive 12 percent less rainfall and 27 

percent less streamflow. Therefore, climate change is 

already or may magnify drought spells and reduce water 

supply in the region.

In this part of the Conafor project, we aim to address 

whether statistical changes in river discharge are taking 

place in several streams that drains northern Mexico. 

Temporal Tendencies of River Discharge of Five 

Watersheds of Northern Mexico

José Návar, Professor of Watershed Management and Forest Hydrology, Facultad de 

Ciencias Forestales-UANL. Carr. Nacional km 145. Linares, N.L., México 

Humberto Hernández and Julio Ríos, M.Sc. For. Studentes. Facultad de Ciencias 

Forestales-UANL. Carr. Nacional km 145. Linares, N.L., México

Abstract—The watersheds of northern Mexico that encompasses the Rio San Pedro, 

Sinaloa, Nazas, Aguanaval, San Juan, and San Fernando-Soto La Marina are located 

within the main mountain ranges of northern Mexico and within the zone of large 

deserts of the boreal hemisphere. The hydro-climate variations, the management of 

forest soils and land use changes are shaping the supply and management of water 

resources. This research project aims to understand whether changes in discharge 

variables are present in time series data of 172 gauging stations of five watershed of 

northern Mexico. The Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s method were used to test for 

statistical changes in trends or tendencies and the magnitude of change of annual, 

monthly, monthly standard deviation, daily minimum (baseflow), and daily maximum 

(peakflow) discharge of the hydrometric stations mentioned above. Results showed that 

over 40 percent of the gauging stations had statistical significant tendencies in each of 

the five discharge variables analyzed. Most tendencies had a negative sign indicating 

a steady reduction of discharge in time. The reduction was, on the average over 5,000 

m3 year-1 for annual discharge. Although further research is required to understand 

the potential sources of variation that explains the negative tendencies of discharge, it 

can be preliminary attributed to subtle climate changes, and management practices of 

water and other natural resources.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 711

A total of 172 hydrometric stations were statistically 

analyzed by trends and trend magnitude in five variables 

of river discharge in the hydrologic regions of Sinaloa 

(RH10), Presidio-San Pedro (RH 11), Nazas-Aguanaval 

(RH 36), San Juan (RH 37), and San Fernando-Soto La 

Marina (RH 25). The working hypothesis was that there 

is no change in any of the variables of river discharge 

in time and therefore the change in magnitude is equal 

to zero.

Materials and Methods

Location of the Study Area

The region under study comprises the hydrologic regions of Sinaloa, Presidio-San Pedro, Nazas-Aguanaval, 

and San Fernando-Soto La Marina and the Rio San Juan 

watershed located within the Mexican States of Sinaloa, 

Nayarit, Durango, Chihuahua, Zacatecas, Coahuila, 

Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas.

Population

Demographic information on each watershed is reported in table 1.

Climate

A diversity of climates is present in the studied watersheds (CAN, 1994; 2000). Cold climates are observed 

in the highest peaks of the mountain ranges; cold-temperate climates in the central valleys, at the piedmont 

of the Sierras; subtropical, and tropical climates in the 

low ranges of the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of Mexico 

piedmonts; to dry climates in the central Chihuahuan 

Desert.

Plant Cover

Extensive areas are covered by Pine, Oak, mixed 

Pine-oak forests in the eastern and western Sierras 

Madre mountain ranges. At the piedmont of the mountain 

ranges, submontane forests are characterized by thorny 

shrubs and broadleaved, low trees. In several places of 

the piedmont, tropical and subtropical flora dominates 

the landscape. Chaparral, dry, xerophitic plant cover is 

typical at the central Chihuahuan Desert. Tamaulipan 

thornscrub, acacia and mesquite forests extend in the 

lowlands of the Pacific Ocean, Gulf of Mexico, and Great 

Plains of North America.

Soils

Soils are characterized mainly by Litosols in the 

uplands of the major mountain ranges. Regosols 

and Xerosols dominate the landscape of the central 

Chihuahuan Desert. Vertisols are characteristic in the 

lowlands of the Pacific Ocean and Gulf of México.

Methods

A total of 172 gauging stations placed in five watersheds were selected for discharge analysis. The number 

of hydrometric stations analyzed is reported in table 2.

The Mann-Kendall nonparametric test was used for 

detecting statistical trends in discharge time-series data. 

The test reveals the presence or absence of monotonic 

increasing or decreasing trends. The mathematical formulation of the Mann-Kendall test is described in equations 

[1] - [3].

Z =

S −1

VAR(S) if S > 0

S +1

VAR(S) if S < 0











 [1]

S =

j=k+1

n

∑k=1

n−1

∑ sgn xj − x ( ) k

sgn sj − x ( ) k

1 if xj − x ( ) k > 0

−1 if xj − x ( ) k < 0

0 if xj − x ( ) k = 0













 [2]

VAR(S) = 1

18

n n( ) −1 ( ) 2n + 5 − t p t( ) p −1 2t ( ) p + 5

p=1

q

∑ 















[3]

where xj and xk are the annual values in j and k years, 

q= number of tied groups and tp= is the number of data 

values in the pth group. The presence-absence of a statistically significant trend is evaluated using the Z value, 

which is normally distributed.

Table 1. Population in five watersheds of northern Mexico.

Watershed Inhabitants

1. Sinaloa (RH 10) 2,279975

2. Presidio – San Pedro (RH 11) 1,465720

3. Nazas-Aguanaval (RH 36) 1,655910

4. Cuenca Rio San Juan (RH 37) 4,216607

5. San Fernando – Soto La Marina (RH 25) 682033

Total 10,300245

Sources: CONAPO, INEGI (2000).
712 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

A total of five discharge variables were tested by the 

sign test. Discharge variables are: (i) annual discharge, 

(ii) monthly discharge, (iii) the standard deviation of 

monthly discharge, (iv) minimum daily discharge, and 

(v) maximum daily discharge.

The non-parametric Sen’s method was used to detect 

the magnitude of slope change in all five discharge variables. The slope is described as a change of the variable 

per unit time. The Sen’s method was used assuming a 

linear trend in the short time series. Equation [4] describes the Sen’s method.

Qi = xj − xk

j − k [4]

where j>k.

Equation [4] is the median slope of N=n(n-1)/2 slope 

estimates Qi.

Results and Discussion

Discharge is being modified in the five studied watersheds. Table 3 shows the number and percentage of 

gauging stations which had a statistically significant 

trend, with negative slope (-), and positive slope (+).

M.Std.Dev. = Standard deviation of monthly discharge. The ratio of last row was estimated from the 

number of gauging stations with statistical significance 

to the total number of gauging stations analyzed.

In general, over 40 percent of the gauging stations 

analyzed showed a statistical significant trend. Of 

these, on the average, 26 percent had a negative trend 

and the remaining 16 percent had a positive tendency. 

Annual and monthly discharge are steadily decreasing 

at the watersheds San Pedro, Nazas, San Juan, and San 

Fernando but increasing at the watershed Sinaloa. The 

former watersheds are characterized by having an important area within the interior valleys and the Chihuahuan 

Desert of northern Mexico, where erratic and infrequent 

rainfall and high evapo-transpiration losses control the 

hydrologic cycle. In the Sinaloa watershed, most gauging stations with positive trends in annual and monthly 

discharge are located in the lower parts of the watershed, 

below most irrigation districts, dams, and urban areas. 

Therefore, the increasing tendency is partially due to 

management of water resources, rather than to the steady 

changes in hydroclimate.

The monthly discharge variation is being reduced at 

all watersheds, partially indicating the influence of reservoirs, over-utilization of streamflow, and steady inputs 

of municipal and irrigation excess into streams.

Minimum daily discharge, which is a measurement 

of baseflow, is increasing at most gauging stations at 

the watersheds Sinaloa and San Pedro, but it is reducing 

at most gauging stations in the remaining watersheds 

(Nazas, San Juan, and San Fernando). Irrigation –excess 

and urban discharge partially explains baseflow increments and water withdrawals in excess from aquifers 

of the interior watersheds. Subtle changes in rainfall 

Table 2. The number of hydrometric stations analyzed for trends and trend magnitude in five watersheds of 

northern Mexico.

Hydrometric Average Discharge Average

Watershed Stations (M m3

y-1) Period

1. Sinaloa (RH 10) 58 7,970 1960-1999

2. Presidio – San Pedro (RH 11) 15 4,154 1970-1998

3. Nazas-Aguanaval (RH 36) 33 328 1940-1999

4. Cuenca Rio San Juan (RH 37) 30 1,260 1955-1999

5. San Fernando – Soto La Marina (RH 25) 36 1970-1999

Data source: CNA (2003).

Table 3. Number of gauging stations with statistical significance in discharge trend.

Discharge

Annual Monthly M.Std.Dev. Minimum Maximum

Sinaloa 25(-4,+21) 26(-5,+21) 28(-17,+11) 28(-3,+25) 27(-16,+11)

San Pedro 6(-4,+2) 5(-3,+2) 6(-6,+0) 2(-0,+2) 6(-6,+0)

Nazas 18 (-15,+3) 18 (-15,+3) 19 (-16,+3) 11 (-7,+4) 18 (-15,+3)

San Juan 13(-11,+2) 14(-12,+2) 12(-9,+3) 12(-8,+4) 12(-8,+4)

San Fernando 12(-9,+3) 12(-9,+3) 8(-7,+1) 18(-14,+4) 8(-7,+1)

Total 74(-43,+31) 75(-44,+31) 73(-55,+18) 71(-32,+39) 71(-52,+19)

Ratio (%) 43(25,18) 44(26,18) 42(32,10) 41(19,22) 41(30,11)
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 713

frequency, depth, and intensity may also be contributing 

to changes in baseflow.

Maximum daily discharge is being reduced at most 

gauging stations in all watersheds. Increasing storage in 

arid, semi-arid, and subtropical reservoirs is reducing 

peakflows in most gauging stations.

The rate of change of discharge is reported in table 

4.

Reductions in annual discharge are noticed in the San 

Fernando – Soto La Marina, Nazas, and Sinaloa watersheds. The San Juan and San Pedro watersheds have 

annual discharge reduced in less than 10,000 m3 y-1 

and appear to be independent of management practices 

of water resources. For monthly discharge, the variation 

between watersheds diminishes.

Peakflows are most dramatically modified than baseflows. Sinaloa and San Fernando watersheds appear to 

have largest control on streamflow and therefore on peakflows. Baseflow is least modified in the San Fernando 

watershed.

Causes of shifts in river discharge are management 

practices of water and natural resources and subtle 

climatic changes. Conventional management practices 

must address new approaches to sustainable manage 

water resources, with special emphasis on critical times. 

River discharge must partially supply the domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors (Doorenbos and Kassam, 

1979; UNCED, 1992; Soley and others 1998). River 

discharge must also be protected with the aim to conserve 

landscapes, riparian ecosystems, species, and genes; as 

well as the goods and services they provide to society 

(UNCED, 1992; Postel, 2000). In arid, semi arid, and subtropical regions, prone to erratic, infrequent, and scarce 

rainfall and streamflow; with steady growing population 

searching for development, the conservation of streams 

with running water becomes a difficult task (Kleeberg 

and Weissberger, 1996; Schmitt, 1997). Therefore, every 

drop of water withdraw from reservoirs and rivers must 

double productivity in order to conserve water resources 

with the aim to sustainable manage water (Postel, 2000). 

The present and likely future scenarios suggest the need 

of: (a) reducing per capita water use, (b) increasing the 

efficiency of water use in the municipal, industrial, and 

above all in the agricultural sector, (c) treating all water 

diverted to streams and reservoirs, etc. These practices 

require the promotion of interactive, iterative, and multisectorial approaches; the planning for the rational 

utilization, protection, conservation, and management 

of water resources; the design, implementation, and 

evaluation of programs and projects that are economically efficient, socially acceptable, and environmentally 

compatible; and the identification and strengthening of 

appropriate institutional, legal, and financial mechanisms 

(UNCED, 1992; Schmandt and others (1998; 2000).

Conclusions

Discharge is being temporally and spatially modified 

in northern Mexico. A little over 40 percent of gauging 

stations analyzed showed changes of five discharge variables in time. Most gauging stations showed a negative 

tendency for most discharge variables for most watersheds indicating a reduction of annual, monthly, monthly 

deviation, daily minimum, and daily maximum flows. 

These changes appear to be the result of subtle climatic 

shifts, management practices of water and natural resources, the presence of reservoirs, irrigation districts, 

and metropolis within the watersheds. Further research 

is required for understanding the sources of variation of 

discharge within each watershed.

References

Comision Nacional Del Agua (CNA). 1994. Consejo de 

Cuenca del Río Bravo. Comisión Nacional del Agua. CNA, 

Región Noreste. México, D.F.

Comision Nacional Del Agua (CNA). 2000. Estadísticas 

hidrológicas de México. Periódico El Sol de Durango, 

Mexico.

Table 4. The median slope (and confidence intervals) for five variables of discharge with negative tendency 

of 172 gauging stations in five watersheds of northern Mexico.

Discharge

Annual Monthly M.Std.Dev. Minimum Maximum

Sinaloa -3.66(2.19) -0.82(1.06) -0.32(0.41) -1.91(0.51) -9.69(6.25)

San Pedro -0.11(0.12) -2.05(0.94) -2.52(4.89) -1.02(0.77) 0(0)

Nazas -4.74(3.98) -0.40(0.31) -0.50(0.28) -1.31(0.92) -1.28(0.80)

San Juan -0.84(1.11) -2.10(0.92) -0.01(0.01) -1.58(0.61) -2.73(3.30)

San Fernando -16.47(8.17) -2.56(2.03) -2.53(1.02) -0.12(0.10) -10.01(2.61)

Average -5.16(3.11) -1.59(1.05) -1.18(1.32) -1.19(0.58) -4.74(2.59)

M.Std.Dev. = Standard deviation of monthly discharge.
714 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Comision Nacional Del Agua (CNA). 2003. Estadísticas del 

Agua en México. CNA-SEMARNAT, Mexico.

CONAPO, 2000. Estimaciones de la población en México. 

Consejo Nacional de Población, México, D.F.

Contreras, B.S. and Lozano, V.M.L. 1994. Water, endangered 

fishes, and development perspectives in arid lands of 

Mexico. Conservation Biology 8: 379-387.

Doorenbos, J., y A.H. Kassam. 1979. Yield responses to water. 

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 

Rome, Italy.

Edwards, R.J. and Contreras, B.S. 1998. Ecological conditions 

in the Lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo valley study area and 

projections for the future. HARC-ITESM Joint Reserach 

Project on Water and Sustainable Development in the 

Binational Lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin. ITESM, 

Monterrey, N.L. México.

El Norte 22/01/2001. Señalan inequidad en reparto de agua. 

Reporte escrito por Miguel Domínguez. Monterrey, N.L., 

México.

Environmental Resources Limited ERL. 1991. Plan de manejo 

de los embalses de la cuenca del Río San Juan. Comisión 

de Comunidades Europeas. Madrid, España. 72 p.

Flores-Laureano, J.S. and J. Navar. 2002. An assessment of 

stream water quality of the Rio San Juan, Nuevo Leon, 

Mexico, 1995-1996. J. Environ. Qual. 31:1256-1265.

International Boundary Water Commission. 1980-1994. 

Hydrologic bulletins of the Rio Bravo/Rio Grande.

IPCC. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. 

Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Summary for Policy 

Makers. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge, UK. 17 

pp.

Kleeberg, H-B. and Weissgerber, G.K. 1996. Management 

of irrigation in semi-arid regions. Natural Resources and 

Development 40: 113-125.

Navar, J. 1998. Water demand and supply in the Mexican 

portion of the lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo watershed. 

HARC-ITESM Joint Reserach Project on Water and 

Sustainable Development in the Binational Lower Rio 

Grande/Rio Bravo Basin. ITESM, Monterrey, N.L. 

Mexico.

Navar, J. 2001. Water supply and demand scenarios in the San 

Juan Watersed. Geofísica Internacional 40: 121-134.

Navar, J. and Rodriguez-Tellez, E. 2002. Caracterización de 

las superficies agricolas y sus volúmenes de irrigación 

en la cuenca del río San Juan, Mexico. Investigaciones 

Geograficas47: 77-91.

Navar, J. 2004. Water supply and demand in the lower Rio 

Bravo/Rio Grande basin: the irrigated agriculture scenario. 

Geofísica Internacional 43: 495-506.

Postel, L.S. 2000. Entering an era of water scarcity: the challenges ahead. Ecological Applications 10 (4): 941-948.

SARH-SEP, 1989. El agua y la sociedad en el mundo, en 

México y en Nuevo León. Instituto de Tecnología del Agua, 

IMTA, Cuernavaca, Morelos, México.

Schmandt, J., Stolp, C., and Ward, G. 1998. Scarce water: doing 

more with less in the lower Rio Grande. US-Mexican Policy 

Studies Program. Policy Report No. 8. The University of 

Texas, Austin, TX.

Schmandt, J., I. Aguilar, N. Armstrong, L. Chapa, S. Contreras, 

R. Edwards, J. Hazelton, M. Mathis, J. Návar, E. Vogel, 

and G. Ward. 2000. Water and sustainable development. 

Executive Summary. EPA research Agreement R 824799-

01-0. March 31, 2000.

Schmitt, T.G. 1997. Water protection human beings a triangular 

relationships in changing times. Applied Geography and 

Development 49: 59-78.

Soley, W.B., Pierce, R.R., and Perlman, H.A. 1998. Estimated 

use of water in the United States in 1995. U.S. Geological 

Survey Circular No 1200.

UNCED. 1992. United Nations Conference on Environment 

and Development, Agenda 21, Chapter 18, sections 8 and 

9. Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Ward, G. 1998. Water supply in the US side of the Lower 

Rio Bravo/Rio Grande watershed. HARC-ITESM Joint 

Reserach Project on Water and Sustainable Development in 

the Binational Lower Rio Grande/Rio Bravo Basin. ITESM, 

Monterrey, N.L. Mexico.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 715

Introduction

As communities have grown into forested areas, homeowners and forest managers have become aware of 

the threat posed by wildland fire to the safety of those 

communities. With the help of the National Fire Plan, 

many communities have taken steps to protect themselves 

by educating homeowners about the danger of hazardous 

fuels around homes, developing fuels reduction projects 

to create defensible space, and conducting disposal or 

chipping programs.

The State of California and many local areas require 

the reduction of vegetative fuels around structures 

through laws and ordinances. These ordinances are based 

on the police powers granted to states by the constitution, 

to protect the health, safety, and welfare of its citizens. 

States delegate this power as it relates to land use to local 

government entities. The unit of government closest to 

the people is thereby empowered to adopt, administer, 

and enforce regulations designed to control private 

behavior for the public good. Florida’s Department of 

Community Affairs states, “because wildfire protection 

and mitigation activities must occur at a local level and 

in concert with local land use and development decisions, 

regulations for wildfire protections are most effective at 

the local level” (FDCA 2004).

In this paper we will look at research on public attitudes toward vegetation management regulations, the 

efforts of at-risk communities to encourage vegetation 

management, four model ordinances for wildfire risk 

reduction, and the experience of program managers in 

administering regulations for vegetation management.

Public Attitudes and Wildfire 

Risk Mitigation

One of the major challenges facing policy-makers as 

they formulate state and local risk mitigation programs 

is how to influence the behaviors of private property owners regarding vegetation management. Public 

risk perceptions concerning wildfire appear to affect 

Mitigating Wildfire Risk in the Wildland Urban Interface: 

The Role of Regulations

Cheryl R. Renner, Research Associate, Department of Environmental Studies, Louisiana 

State University, Mandeville, LA

Dr. Margaret Reams, Associate Professor, Department of Environmental Studies, Louisiana 

State University, Baton Rouge, LA

Terry Haines, Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 

New Orleans, LA

Abstract—The growth of residential communities within forest areas throughout the 

country, and particularly in the West, has increased the danger to life and property 

from uncontrolled wildfire. The conflict of permanent residential settlements built next 

to a fire-adapted ecosystem has been further exacerbated by 100 years of fire suppression and an extended drought in the West. Under the police powers granted by the 

Constitution, state and local governments have the power to pass laws to protect the 

health, safety, and welfare of their citizens. As this relates to land use, the states have 

delegated this power to cities and counties. As a result, most laws for creating and 

maintaining defensible space around structures have been enacted at the local level. 

Research of state and local wildfire mitigation efforts found that many areas adopt regulations for defensible space as only one element of multi-faceted programs for wildfire 

mitigation. This paper will compare four model ordinances designed for adoption by 

state and local governments to protect communities from wildfire. In addition, results 

from a survey of wildfire program managers provide insight into the obstacles faced in 

administering defensible space regulations. In evaluating program options, managers 

must assess/balance wildfire risk and safety issues with public acceptance of regulations 

and the potential effectiveness of the regulation in mitigating wildfire hazard.
716 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

residents’ support for regulations to mitigate the risk. 

For example, Bradshaw (1987) and Loeher (1985) 

reported that many residents within wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities had had no direct experience 

with the devastating effects of wildfire and, as a result, 

tended to underestimate the risk. A decade later, Winter 

and Fried (2000) found that focus groups in Michigan 

perceived wildfire to be inherently uncontrollable, with 

random patterns of damage, a perception that tended to 

discourage individual property owners from engaging 

in unilateral removal of vegetation. Further, they found 

that zoning and safety ordinances are viewed as unacceptable infringements on the rights of property owners 

to use their property as they see fit.

Similarly, Loeher (1985) cited a belief by residents 

that it is simply not their responsibility to protect themselves from wildfire risk. Further, some residents may 

not support vegetation management because they fear 

that removal of trees and shrubs will negatively affect the 

aesthetics and ecological functions of a natural landscape 

(Alan Bible Center for Applied Research 1998, Hodgson 

1995, Davis 1990). On the other hand, support for more 

restrictive government regulations seems to increase 

after a community has experienced a wildfire (Abt and 

others 1990).

Vegetation Management 

Regulations

Research for the National Wildfire Mitigation 

Programs Database website, www.wildfireprograms.

usda.gov, a clearinghouse of information on state and 

local programs for wildfire mitigation through vegetation management, shows that municipalities and counties 

adopting regulations to protect wildland urban interface 

areas use many different regulatory tools (wildfireprograms.usda.gov 2004). Wildland-Urban Interface 

regulatory mechanisms for vegetation management exist in the form of fire codes, building codes, subdivision 

regulations, zoning regulations, growth management, or 

comprehensive plans, and fire plans.

Out of 108 defensible space regulations found in 74 

jurisdictions, 23 were in fire codes, 26 were in subdivision regulations or development standards, 19 were in 

fire plans, 11 were in general plans, 9 were in zoning 

overlay districts, and 9 were in state guidelines. Smaller 

numbers were in burn regulations, insurance guidelines, 

real estate disclosure laws, building codes and land use 

codes. This shows that there is no one right answer in 

regulating vegetation management. Jurisdictions are 

dealing with wildfire risk in ways that best suit their 

needs and the administrative structure of their fire codes 

and land use regulations.

Jurisdictions are not relying solely on the regulations 

to motivate citizens to reduce fuels. Most jurisdictions 

with regulations also have other aspects of a program to 

reduce fuel hazards within the community. These other 

program elements may include defensible space prescriptions, free or cost-share clearing programs, chipping and 

disposal services, demonstration projects, community 

fuelbreaks, and public education campaigns. Of the 74 

jurisdictions with regulations, 54 of those jurisdictions 

supplemented the regulations with more than one other 

program element.

Ordinance Structure

Comprehensive regulations to protect communities 

from wildfire must include road, bridge and driveway 

specifications, requirements for fire resistant construction materials, adequate water supplies for fire fighting, 

multiple ingress and egress roads, visible addresses, 

and fuel breaks for defensible space. This paper will 

focus specifically on the defensible space regulations, 

one part of a comprehensive Wildfire Urban Interface 

ordinance.

The paper will examine four different model codes and 

will discuss the elements of vegetation management regulations included in each. Two of the codes are designed 

to be adopted by any community at risk in the nation; 

one of which is an international standard. The other two 

are state model codes for California and Florida, which 

are representative of the needs of their state’s particular 

terrain and vegetative risk, and represent different areas 

of the country. It is hoped that this examination of four 

different ordinances will assist communities considering 

adopting a model code in finding one that best fits their 

needs. The model codes to be discussed are:

NFPA 1144: Standard for Protection of Life and 

Property from Wildfire (NFPA 2002);

International Urban-Wildland Interface Code (UWI) 

(International Code Council 2003);

Model Ordinance for the Defensibility of Space and 

Structures, (California Department of Forestry and 

Fire Protection 2000);

Model Wildfire Mitigation Ordinance (Florida 

Department of Community Affairs 2004).

While all of these ordinances contain the basic elements necessary for a comprehensive wildfire protection 

ordinance, each is unique in some way. This paper will 

look first at the similarities within the ordinance elements 

pertaining to vegetation management, and then the specific elements that make each stand out from the rest.

1.

2.

3.

4.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 717

Findings of Fact and Risk Assessments

Most regulations begin with findings of fact which 

give reasons why the regulations that follow are necessary to protect to health, safety, and welfare of the citizens 

of the jurisdiction. The UWI Code includes an appendix 

which guides the jurisdiction in writing findings of fact 

which relate directly to the climate, topography and fuels 

situation of the local environment. The findings of fact 

form the basis for the designation of the WUI area within 

the jurisdiction. This area must be mapped, and the criteria and map must be reviewed every three years.

NFPA 1144 does not include an introductory findingsof-fact. Instead it requires the jurisdiction to do a hazard 

risk assessment based on the following factors:

Climate;

Vegetative fuels;

Rating of existing structures;

Slope and aspect;

Fire history;

Firesafe routes and egress;

Other factors determined by the local jurisdiction.

This risk assessment is to be reviewed by the jurisdiction annually.

The model ordinances put forth by Florida and 

California are structured differently. Both states have 

conducted hazard risk assessments on a statewide level, 

and make the information available to communities in 

map form. The communities may follow up at the local 

level with more detailed assessments, or they may impose restrictions based on the information provided by 

the state. In Florida, the entire state was mapped using 

Landsat imagery at 30 meter resolution and Ikonos imagery at 4 meter resolution. Fire protection service response 

time was included in addition to the factors listed above. 

The state plans to review its Florida Risk Assessment 

(FRA) every three years. However, the jurisdiction may 

select a different frequency for local review of risk.

California’s Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone 

(VHFHSZ) is mapped at one square mile resolution, and 

information is reviewed by the state every five years. 

Localities containing VHFHSZ areas 

are asked to adopt two ordinances. 

The first is the Model Ordinance 

for Very High Fire Hazard Severity 

Zone Adoption, which gives the 

Fire Chief the power to conduct 

a local hazard risk assessment to 

define the VHFHSZ based on findings of substantial evidence. The 

second is the Model Ordinance 

for the Defensibility of Space 

and Structures, which the locality must adopt unless it already has 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

regulations in place that are equal to or more restrictive 

than those outlined in the Model Ordinance.

Table 1 shows the elements included in assessments 

to determine limits of the area where WUI regulations 

will apply for each model ordinance, i.e., the WildlandUrban Interface Zone.

Hazard Risk Rating Guides

All four ordinances are supplemented with a fire 

hazard rating guide that allows inspectors to evaluate the 

fire hazard risk of proposed developments and existing 

structures. These hazard rating scales differ in complexity and in the weight given to the various factors. Many 

states have developed their own hazard rating forms 

which may be based on earlier versions of NFPA 299, 

but tailored to the environment found in their state. The 

new standard NFPA 1144 features a revision of the 299 

Wildland Fire Risk and Hazard Severity Assessment system. The severity values for non-rated roofs, inadequate 

separation of vegetation from structures and separation 

of structures from each other have been increased (NFPA 

2002). When choosing a model ordinance for a locality, 

the choices of hazard risk rating forms should also be 

considered, and the weightings of the various factors 

should be tested in the district.

Vegetation Management Plans

All four ordinances include oversight and review by 

the jurisdiction of new construction. The model codes 

all contain language requiring the submittal of a plan 

with a map showing the intended development, existing 

conditions, and proposed changes, including existing 

fuels and fuels modifications. All four ordinances hinge 

the issuance of a building permit and/or grading permit 

upon acceptance of the proposed plan.

Defensible Space Requirements

The four ordinances all require fuels modification to 

create defensible space around structures. Defensible 

Table 1. Determining the WUI Zone – Findings of Fact / Risk Assessment.

NFPA 1144 UWI Code CA LRA Model FL Model

Climate X X X X

Vegetation X X X X

Structure X X X

Slope/aspect X X X X

Density/lot size X X

Access X X X X

Fire history X

Fire protection services X X

Review 1 yr. 3 yr. 5 yr. 3 yr.

Risk form X X X X
718 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

space clearing and pruning requirements are comparable, 

but the mandated distances are different. A comparison of 

the defensible space requirements is shown in table 2.

NFPA 1144 and the Florida Model Ordinance require 

a minimum of 30 feet of defensible space around structures. UWI Code requires a minimum of 30 feet for 

moderate hazard areas, 50 feet for high hazard areas, and 

100 feet for extreme hazard areas. The California Model 

Ordinance requires a minimum of 30 feet, which can 

be extended to 100 feet at the determination of the Fire 

Chief. The California Model Ordinance also requires a 

minimum setback of 30 feet on parcels over one acre, and 

for parcels less than one acre the jurisdiction shall provide 

for the “same practical effect.” The other ordinances do 

not specify setback requirements.

Greenbelts or Fuelbreaks on Common 

Areas

A fuelbreak is a strip of land surrounding a subdivision or community which provides a barrier to adjacent 

wildlands by modifying the fuels in this area. Greenbelts 

act as fuelbreaks, but are lands used for purposes other 

than fire control such as golf courses, swimming pools, 

parking lots, parks, playgrounds, and orchards. The 

Florida Model Ordinance requires 12 foot fuelbreaks 

around the perimeter of new subdivisions. The California 

Model Ordinance recommends greenbelts, but does not 

specify a width for the greenbelt. The ordinance requires 

the greenbelt to be strategically located as a separation 

between wildland fuels and structures, and to be approved 

by the jurisdiction.

Maintenance of Defensible Space and 

Enforcement

All four model ordinances require the maintenance of 

defensible space as an element of the fuel modification 

plan described above. However, since vegetation can 

grow back quickly, the challenge lies in enforcement of 

this requirement.

NFPA 1144 states that the fuel modification plan shall 

include a maintenance element with the responsibility 

for maintenance defined. No enforcement or penalty 

language is included in the ordinance.

UWI Code contains language which requires a plan to 

maintain the defensible space included in the approved 

Vegetation Management Plan. The UWI Code gives 

the code official the authority to inspect, the right of 

entry, and the authority to issue corrective action orders. 

Persons failing to take immediate action to abate a hazard 

when notified to do so by the code official are guilty of 

a misdemeanor.

The California Model Ordinance for the Defensibility 

of Space and Structures does not include penalty language in the ordinance. Since the model provides for the 

insertion of component statements into the Uniform Fire 

Code (UFC), penalties are cited in the UFC. Penalties 

for failure to maintain fire breaks exist in the California 

Government Code. Fines may be levied for first, second 

and third offenses. Or, if a landowner fails to correct the 

conditions, then the local agency may have the work performed, and the charges become a lien on the property.

The Florida Model Ordinance also includes a procedure should the landowner fail to perform the necessary 

wildfire mitigation, charging the costs as a lien against 

the property. As in the UWI Code, the Florida Model 

Ordinance gives the code official the authority to inspect, 

the right of entry, and the authority to issue corrective 

action orders. Persons failing to take immediate action 

to mitigate a hazard are guilty of a misdemeanor.

Table 3 shows the enforcement penalties for defensible 

space violations in the four model ordinances.

Public Awareness and Disclosure of 

Wildfire Hazard

To make the residents of high wildfire risk areas aware 

of the dangers that surround them, the NFPA 1144 and the 

Florida Model Ordinance require the jurisdiction to create public education programs. The NFPA 1144 program 

emphasizes wildland urban interface and intermix issues 

including: wildland fire hazards, life and property risks, 

fire causes, prevention and safety programs, directed to 

target audiences. The Florida Ordinance recognizes that 

many homeowners are unaware that they live in an area 

Table 2. Defensible Space Plan Requirements.

Defensible Space Minimums

30’	 Varying	 Setback/	 Greenbelt/	 Fuel modification 	 Building permit

 lot size Fuelbreak plan issued

NFPA 1144 X X X

UWI Code X X X X

CA LRA Model X X X X X X

FL Model X X X X
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 719

susceptible to wildfire. The ordinance requires buyers 

of buildings or undeveloped property in wildfire hazard 

areas to be informed in writing of the wildfire risk and 

potential nuisance posed by fuel management activities 

such as prescribed burning. And it requires the Wildfire 

Mitigation Official to hold a series of public workshops, 

and distribute informational brochures to homeowners, 

builders, developers, and realtors. The state of California 

requires the disclosure of wildfire hazards to purchasers 

of property in the VHFHSZ.

Unique Characteristics of the 

Ordinances

NFPA 1144

Unique to NFPA 1144 are regulations dealing with 

fire protection during construction. NFPA 1144 provides 

for the control of combustible materials and requires 

the presence of extinguishing equipment on the job site. 

Among other requirements, an approved hose with nozzle 

must be available, and have enough length and water 

supply that water can reach 20 feet into the vegetative 

fuels adjacent to the construction site.

Another innovation in NFPA 1144 is the section on 

Community Planning for Protection of Life and Property 

from Wildland Fire. This requires the jurisdiction to 

create an operational plan for command, training, community notification and involvement, public safety 

and evacuation and mutual assistance elements. The 

public education component is an important element of 

the operational plan. In addition to being prepared for 

evacuation and mobilization of attack, the operational 

plan will help the community prepare to be recognized 

through the Firewise Communities USA program. The 

community planning element may also prove valuable 

under the Healthy Forests Restoration Act. By having 

local leadership in place, and working relationships built, 

the community is well prepared to develop the required 

Community Wildfire Protection Plans.

UWI Code

The UWI Code, like NFPA 1144, sets out minimum standards for protection from wildland fire. It 

differs in that it provides for increased 

defensible space around structures in 

areas deemed high and extreme hazard, 

increasing the distance up to 100 feet. 

The distances may also be increased 

by the code official based on his determination of site-specific conditions. 

This makes defensible space less of a 

one-size-fits-all formula. The UWI Code includes a 

section on vegetation control around roadways and 

electrical transmission and distribution lines. In addition, the language on enforcement and penalties 

strengthens the regulations.

California Model Ordinance for the 

Defensibility of Space and Structures

California’s Model Ordinance is unique because 

it is mandated by the state, setting out minimum 

standards for jurisdictions with high and very high 

hazard zones to enforce. It is the only ordinance of 

the four in which the defensible space regulations also 

apply to existing structures. However, localities have 

the option to dispute the VHFHSZ designations, and 

communities with pre-existing ordinances are exempt. 

As a result, adoption of the model ordinance has not 

been universal.

The model ordinance is just one piece of California’s 

complex set of laws for administration of wildfire hazards statewide. For fire-protection purposes, the state is 

divided into the State Responsibility Area (SRA) and the 

Local Responsibility Area (LRA). State Responsibility 

Areas are “areas in which the financial responsibility of 

preventing and suppressing fires is primarily the responsibility of the state. The prevention and suppression of 

fires in all areas that are not so classified is primarily the 

responsibility of local or federal agencies, as the case may 

be (PRC 4125[a]). Local Responsibility Areas are places 

where a local fire district is responsible for preventing 

and suppressing fires.

California first enacted regulations for fire hazard 

zoning in the State Responsibility Areas in 1982. Over 

the years, California added regulations setting out vegetative clearance and roof and structural requirements for 

the SRA. In 1992, with the adoption of the “Bates Bill”, 

fire hazard assessment and zoning were mandated in the 

LRA. Minimum fire safety standards were set for local 

governments to adopt. The regulations are comparable 

to those that existed in the SRA since 1985, and brought 

fire hazard reduction regulations to all high wildfire risk 

areas throughout the state.

Even with state mandated regulations, a Blue 

Ribbon Commission which studied the 2003 Southern 

Table 3. Maintenance of Defensible Space and Enforcement.

Maintenance Fines Misdemeanor Liens

NFPA 1144 X

UWI Code X X

CA LRA Model X X X X

Florida Model X X X
720 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

California wildfires found that “Currently, appropriate 

minimum building standards and fire safety requirements are neither mandated nor consistently enforced 

in all communities in High and Very High Hazard 

Severity Zones.” Additionally they found that “Most 

structural losses occurred where homes had little or 

no vegetation clearance or were built using combustible building materials, and were thus vulnerable to 

wildfire” (Schell 2004).

Florida Model Ordinance

The Florida Model Ordinance was created to be a 

resource for local governments considering wildfire 

mitigation regulations. It was not intended to be adopted 

verbatim. It includes a wide range of elements which local governments can choose from in creating their own 

regulations.

For example, a section on tree protection reconciles 

defensible space regulations with pre-existing tree protection ordinances. This section provides language which 

exempts highly flammable trees within 30 feet of a structure from the tree protection ordinance, and allows the 

planting of replacement trees of a less flammable nature. 

The jurisdiction should attach a list of flammable exempt 

trees and less flammable replacement trees.

The Florida Model Ordinance also includes language 

providing incentives to homeowners in the overlay 

district to create defensible space. One incentive is an 

ad valorem tax break. The ad valorem tax exemption 

is a one-time exemption of the amount paid by the 

homeowner for improvements made for the purpose of 

wildfire mitigation.

Another incentive is recognition of homeowners 

who have demonstrated results and commitment to 

accomplish the goals of wildfire mitigation. These 

individuals will be recognized with Landowner 

Awards that are publicly displayed in the City or 

County Hall.

The Florida Model Ordinance is meant to be adopted 

by local governments as one piece of their land use 

regulations. All Florida counties and municipalities are 

required to adopt a comprehensive plan to guide their 

physical development and growth, and all local land use 

decisions must be consistent with the adopted comprehensive plan. Therefore, the wildfire mitigation goals 

should be included in the comprehensive plan, and should 

be integrated into other land development regulations, 

including subdivision regulations, zoning ordinances, 

and building and development standards. Florida also 

recommends that wildfire mitigation standards be included in deed restrictions or subdivision covenants, 

and be required in a homeowners’ associations plan for 

management of common areas.

Experience of Program 

Managers with Wildfire 

Mitigation Regulations

Although model ordinances are excellent tools for 

providing guidance to local governments in planning 

for wildfire protection, our research looks beyond these 

blueprints to examine the policies and programs currently employed in high-risk communities. A survey of 

100 wildfire mitigation program managers, conducted 

in 2003 examined the broad spectrum of mitigation 

strategies being implemented. Managers were asked 

to characterize their programs in terms of the types of 

activities implemented, obstacles to achieving program 

goals, and the effectiveness of program strategies. Of 

particular interest to the study at hand, are the responses 

of managers concerning regulatory programs. Of the 56 

survey responses, 25 managers indicated that regulation of some type was a component of their wildfire 

risk management program whether through ordinances, 

zoning and/or planning requirements. In all but three 

responses, managers indicated that regulatory strategies 

were a component of broader, comprehensive programs 

that also included education and public outreach efforts, 

homeowner assistance, and wildfire hazard assessment 

and mapping. Managers reported that the focus of their 

regulatory programs included mandatory standards 

and/or review processes for new developments in all 25 

jurisdictions. In addition, thirteen managers reported that 

prescribed treatments for fire hazards around existing 

homes through defined defensible space standards were 

required in their jurisdictions.

Program Barriers

The effectiveness of wildfire risk reduction efforts 

may be constrained by socio-political, economic, and 

technical obstacles. The questionnaire asked managers to 

rank the importance of 12 potential obstacles to achieving 

program goals on a scale of 0-5, with 0 being of no importance. “Budgetary limitations” were considered major 

barriers by all the respondents; closely related was “lack 

of qualified personnel” reported by nineteen managers. 

Other important obstacles included “public apathy” and 

“homeowner resistance to conducting fire-wise improvements on their properties” with 17 of the 25 program 

managers indicating that these social and political factors 

were impediments to achieving program goals. Perhaps 

most important to the analysis of regulatory strategies 

was that the barrier “inadequate enforcement of regulations” was reported as a major obstacle for only eight of 

the twenty-five managers. Linkages among barriers may 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 721

create complex challenges for managers. For example, effective regulatory programs require adequate funding and 

personnel to review planning documents, conduct inspections, administer permit systems, and enforce standards. 

Public acceptance may also affect the effectiveness of 

regulatory strategies. Program managers may be averse to 

enforcing unpopular regulatory policies when the success 

of other components of their programs, such as education 

and homeowner assistance depend upon a good rapport 

with the public and cooperative homeowners.

Effective Strategies

Managers were asked in an open-ended question to 

identify their most effective program element for creating 

defensible space. Interestingly, thirteen of the twentyfive managers of programs with a regulatory element, 

indicated that homeowner services, strategies involving 

one-on-one assistance to homeowners – such as fire-wise 

prescriptions, cost-share assistance for reducing hazards 

around homes, or chipping and fuels disposal - was their 

most effective program element. Only eight of the 25 

managers felt that the regulatory component of their 

program was the most effective strategy.

Conclusion

Regulations for wildfire mitigation are an important 

tool which communities can use to prepare the built 

environment for the eventuality of wildfire. In most 

communities the enacted regulations apply only to new 

construction and substantial remodels, so the sooner 

regulations take affect the better. Communities should 

compare the provisions of the model ordinances to their 

needs. They may find that by adding language from one 

ordinance to another, or by supplementing the ordinance 

with a more sensitive hazard rating form or increased 

defensible space standards, it well serve them better. 

For example, The Village of Ruidoso, New Mexico adopted the UWI 2000 Code, but substituted its own fuels 

management standard which brings defensible space 

requirements out to 120 feet in some areas, and a hazard 

rating form which factors in the indigenous vegetation 

identified on each property.

Minimum standards to reduce structural losses from 

wildfire are built into the model ordinances. For a community at risk, each ordinance would put in place an 

administrative structure and regulations to improve the 

safety of the built environment as it grows into forested 

areas. The unique features of each model ordinance 

should be considered when drafting an ordinance for 

local adoption. In areas of extreme risk an ordinance 

with greater distances for defensible space and stronger 

enforcement options may be appropriate. In areas where 

existing tree ordinances conflict with the goals of wildfire mitigation, exceptions, as provided in the Florida 

ordinance can solve the problem.

Wildfire hazard mitigation is a planning goal that 

should be included in comprehensive plans and growth 

plans and considered on a par with transportation, open 

space, housing density, and other land use issues, as recommended in the Florida Model Ordinance. A study by 

the American Planning Association (American Planning 

Association 2002) found that in many states, enabling 

legislation for local planning dates back to the 1920’s. 

The smart growth initiative to modernize planning legislation is an important step toward giving localities zoning 

and subdivision review powers to effectively deal with 

contemporary growth issues, but it does not list wildfire 

mitigation as a goal. Wildfire mitigation needs to be 

balanced with all growth and development issues, and 

included in the smart growth planning process.

Regulations are not a quick fix to wildfire susceptibility, and they need the support of the community. They 

should be part of a broader program of risk awareness and 

fuels reduction, which demonstrates a commitment by the 

local government to safeguarding the public. Emphasis 

should be placed on establishing fuelbreaks between 

the community and forested land. In developed areas, 

cost-share clearing, demonstration projects and slash 

disposal programs will be needed to create defensible 

space around existing structures and in common areas. 

Many states and high risk communities are already doing this. Homeowners need to see that the responsibility 

for wildfire risk reduction is shared between themselves 

and the larger community, and that wildfire mitigation 

is an ongoing process. They cannot wait until wildfire 

threatens their homes to take action.

References

Abt, R.; Kuypers, M.; Whitson, J. 1990. Perception of fire danger and wildland/urban policies after wildfire. In: Novdin, 

S.; Waldrop, T. eds. Fire and the environment: Ecological 

and cultural perspectives international symposium: proceedings; Knoxville, TN: U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Southeastern Forest Experiment Station: 

257-259.

Alan Bible Center for Applied Research. 1998. Report of the 

living with fire survey results. Under contract to Nevada 

Cooperative Extension, University of Nevada, Reno. 

Unpublished.

American Planning Association 2002. Planning for smart 

growth: 2002 State of the states.Washington, D.C. American 

Planning Association.150 p.

Bradshaw, W. G. 1987. The urban/wildland interface fire 

problem. Can social science play a role? In: Gole, R.D. 

and Cortner, H.J., ed. People and fire at the wildland/urban 
722 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

interface (A source book). US Department of Agriculture, 

Forest Service, Washington, D.C.

California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. 2000. 

Model ordinance for the defensibility of space and structures, Appendix I: 1-8. Statutes and regulations, Appendix 

K: 1-24. In: Fire hazard zoning field guide. Sacramento, 

CA. Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.

Davis, I. B. 1990. The wildland/urban interface. Paradise or 

battleground? Journal of Forestry. January 1990: 26-31.

Florida Department of Community Affairs. 2004. Annotated 

wildfire mitigation ordinance: 69-84; In: Wildfire Mitigation 

in Florida. Tallahassee, FL. Florida Department of 

Community Affairs. 145 p.

Hodgson, R.W. 1996. Community programs. In: R. Slaughter 

ed. California’s I-Zone Urban/Wildland Fire Prevention 

and Mitigation. Sacramento, CA: California Department 

of Forestry and Fire Protection: 242-258.

International Code Council, Inc. 2003. International UrbanWildland Interface Code 2003, Country Club Hills, IL. 

International Code Council: 48 p.

Loeher, L. L. 1985. Fire hazard: The dimension of resident’s 

attitude. In: Radtke, K., ed. Living in the chaparral of 

Southern California conference proceedings: 51-55.

NFPA. 2002. NFPA 1144 Standard for protection of life and 

property from wildfire, Quincy, MA, NFPA. 19 p.

NFPA. 1997. NFPA 299 Standard for protection of life and 

property from wildfire. Quincy, MA. NFPA. 14 p.

Reams, M.; Haines, T.; Renner, C. 2004. An examination of 

state and local programs for wildfire risk reduction in the 

urban-wildland interface. In: Gonzalez-Caban, Armando, 

technical coordinator. Fire economics, planning and policy 

second international symposium proceedings: A global 

view; 2004 April 19-22; Cordoba, Spain. Available only on 

cd-rom to order, email agonzalezcaban@fs.fed.us.

Schell, Rich. 2004. Wildfire loss mitigation: California 

under fire and lessons learned. Presentation at Colorado 

mitigation and wildfire conference, Colorado Springs, CO. 

Unpublished.

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Southern 

Research Station. 2004. National database of state and 

local wildfire hazard mitigation programs. www.wildfireprograms.usda.gov. New Orleans, LA.

Winter, Greg; Fried, Jeremy S. 2000. Homeowner perspectives 

on fire hazard, responsibility, and management strategies 

at the wildland urban interface. Society and Natural 

Resources, 13:33-49.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 723

Introduction

Geographically, Hungary lies in the Carpathian Basin 

at the centre of Europe. Politically and economically, it 

is among the Eastern European countries that joined the 

European Union on 1 May 2004. Hungary has an uneven 

division of forest cover. Statistical data (HCSO) shows 

that there are approximately 1712 thousand hectares 

of forested territory, which is about 18.5 percent of the 

country’s territory. After the change of the political system in 1989 nearly 40 percent of the total area of domestic 

forest went into private ownership.

In common with numerous other countries over the 

past decade, vast forested regions were destroyed by fire 

in Hungary, too. Having experienced the sluggish and 

ineffectual central response, a number of local initiatives were started to increase effectiveness in forest fire 

situations, among these the Integrated Vegetation Fire 

Management Program of the Professional Municipal 

Fire Department of the Town of Szendrő is the most 

comprehensive. The program was also driven by the 

Department’s responsibility for the fire protection in the 

area of the Aggtelek National Park with its cave-systems 

that form a part of the UNESCO World Heritage Sites 

scheme. The program began in early 2004 and is currently in the initial stage of its realization. The date of 

its accomplishment will largely depend on the schedule 

of financial opportunities, but at the earliest, it will be in 

2007. The first step is the processing of recent fire events 

and, based on that, the sketching up of a concept.

Study

The Diary of Events of Borsod Abaúj Zemplén 

County’s Catastrophy Prevention Directorate was used 

for the analysis; this contains data on nine fire departments including Szendrő’s. The survey embraces the 

period of 1 January 1999 through 31 December 2003. Its 

aim is to offer factual confirmation, based on the Diary, 

concerning problems that arise and are known through 

experience in fighting vegetation fires. About 4300 pages 

of hand-written material were processed. Conclusions 

springing from the results of the study and from other 

data resources:

We accept the phenomenon of global warming as a 

fact. A plethora of literature underpins the conclusion that it has resulted in an increase in the number 

and duration of periods of drought (Heizler 2002). 

The annual precipitation in the Carpathian Basin is 

not expected to change, but its distribution will alter 

(Hargitai 2003). Declining precipitation will appear 

within shorter periods but with greater frequency 

or with increased local concentration. Dry periods 

will become longer, which leads to a higher degree 

1.

Szendrő - type Integrated Vegetation Fire Management—

Wildfire Management Program from Hungary

Ágoston Restás. Fire Chief, Szendrő Fire Department, 3752 Szendrő, Hungary

Abstract—Szendrő Fire Department is located in the northeastern part of Hungary. 

The main task is to fight against wildfire and mitigate the impact of fire at the Aggtelek 

National Park – which belongs to the UNESCO World Heritage list. Because of greater 

effectiveness, in 2004 the Fire Department started a project named Integrated Vegetation 

Fire Management (IVFM). The IVFM consist of two main parts: Peripheries and Modules. 

The land use planning, finance, public relations, education, media connections, protective equipment belongs to Peripheries. The Modules are: Tower based environment 

monitoring and fire detection system, Mobile command control unit and Static and 

dynamic decision support system. The tower based environment and fire detection system address the Fire Department by hot information. The signal to the Fire Department 

is not depends on subjectivity; the alarm sign is in fire fighters hand. It means the start 

of intervention can be as soon as possible. The project develops a static and dynamic 

decision support system. It is based on robot reconnaissance aircraft (UAV)– dynamic 

parts; and the GIS – static parts. The data supplied by the robot reconnaissance aircraft 

is combined with the GIS based fuel model and other information to predict the fire 

activity. The system provides fire fighters accurate information to increase efficiency of 

fire fighting.
724 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

of plant desiccation, thus will offer more favourable 

conditions for ignition, combustion and spread of fire 

(Mika 1988). Overall, the border of fires characteristic 

to the mediterranian region can be expected to push 

northwards (Vidal and others 1994).

The “fire seasons” are relatively easy to predict on the 

bases of meteorological conditions and experience 

(Bussay 1995), despite of which the effectiveness of 

preventive measures (for example, fire-lighting ban) 

is, strongly questionable.

Experience shows that humans contribute around 80 

to 90 percent of the causes for the emergence of fire 

(Leone and others 2003). An improvement in civil 

discipline could lower this proportion hugely.

In intentional fires or those resulting from negligence 

the person causing the fire has little motivation to 

rapidly inform fire fighters. The time within which a 

fire is reported can be influenced by several factors, 

such as the interest of the person in reporting it, or 

the possibility for doing so. Land-line telephones are 

available only in inhabited areas, while the use of mobile telephones is atypical of those characteristically 

causing fires. In certain areas the lack of signal strength 

is also an obstacle in using mobile phones.

In the current system the fire department becomes 

aware of an emerging fire after the indicating person’s 

report. No civil report means no fire. This is defined 

as passive cognisance. Signalling systems, applied in 

closed spaces, signal the emergence of a fire to the 

centres without human contribution and eliminate 

subjective judgment. This principle is termed active 

cognizance.

In the fire seasons interventions should in effect be 

carried out simultaneously at all locations. Units rush 

from one fire to the next, thus often the unit reaches 

the plot with a considerable loss of time following 

the report. This results in more widely-spread fire that 

requires more time and resources to extinguish.

A significant number of vegetation fires are categorized as without financial loss although substantial 

resources had to be employed. The sustainability of 

the current system needs to be reconsidered in an economic perspective and along the value – cost principle. 

The objective definition of “causing damage” and the 

stock-taking of the cost of resources employed are essential. The area of the territory protected should also 

be determined with at least an estimate.

The current system ties up resources for fighting fires 

that do not cause financial loss in a way that needlessly 

increases the potential risk for citizens resulting from 

an absence of fire-hoses. For as long as hoses, that are 

designed for effectively fighting fire and damage with 

an urban character, are tied up in the extinguishing 

of fires without financial loss, the rescue of those in 

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

directly life-threatening situations resulting from a different type of damage (accident, escape of dangerous 

substance into the open, etc.) may incur a time-loss 

that causes a substantial tactical handicap and a serious 

and unacceptable delay due to the absence of hoses.

To fight vegetation fires we respond with fire engines 

that, calculated on current prices, are worth approximately 300 thousand euros and are not designed for 

fighting forest or vegetation fires. This, on the one 

hand, exposes our equipment to unnecessary wear and 

tear, while on the other hand the level of effectiveness 

of their application is also unacceptable. Tackling dirttracks and forest paths increases wear and tear on the 

fire engine hoses, while the danger of possibly getting 

stuck has also to be considered.

 In order to look after the hoses, the otherwise logical choice of an occasionally several kilometer-long 

walk represents substantial time-loss, which helps 

fires to spread and grow. Meanwhile the time of the 

walk there and back potentially increases the risk to 

citizens. Approaching the location by vehicle would 

be fully justified by fire-fighting beginning sooner, 

thus reducing the need for higher degrees of alarm 

and demand on the staff’s physical resources.

 The large numbers of fires emerging in unison often 

necessitates the simultaneous use of all fire engine 

hoses available in a given territory. At times hoses for 

fires cannot be requested at all, or only from distances 

that the long haul considerably lowers their productive 

and effective use. This may induce the raising of the 

degree of alarm. In such cases the defined order of help 

cannot be complied with and the otherwise logically 

structured Alarm and Help Plan breaks down.

 The leader of the unit in need of help does not order 

the otherwise justifiable higher degree of alarm because there is no hope of any help arriving. It is also 

possible that smaller units occasionally fight fires 

in a “planned” way with the aim of protecting their 

own territory, thus keeping units within their own 

area. In the event that no free unit can be called upon 

when a fire is reported or, in a given situation, it is 

not practical to do so, the burning fires “queue” for a 

freed-up unit.

Integrated Vegetation Fire 

Management

Peripheries

The effective operation of and the conditions for IVF 

Management are ensured by the so-called peripheries. 

These include sufficient public education, PR activity, 

special training for firemen, the issue of area-use, media 

9.

10.

11.

12.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 725

information, the opportunity for necessary international 

co-operation (Goldammer 2004, Jurvélius 2004) and, 

unavoidably, financing! The peripheries are established 

parallel to the modules. The most critical point is the 

issue of financing the system. With the application of 

the cost – profit principle financing cannot be divided 

from the perspective of effectiveness. The system can be 

considered more effective than that currently employed 

if there is cost-saving at the state-economy level. When 

examining the issue of effectiveness, returns from investments and the timing of returns are usually accounted. 

There is sense in discussing the effectiveness of firefighting in this way as well, however, the explanation 

differs from the classical interpretation. In fire-fighting 

and other interventions the measures of effectiveness 

include the preserved value, which is often difficult to 

express as an objective figures, or the smallest possible 

scale of damage. An intervention or fire-fighting can be 

termed effective if the largest possible proportion of the 

saved value is achieved with the resources and equipment 

available, or if the damage is of the smallest possible 

proportion (Restás 2004).

Investigations into the economic effectiveness of 

IVFM lie in an analyses of the economic loss – time 

function (Bleszity and others 1989) and of the fire-fighting procedure. The study of the economic loss – time 

function is usually correlated to a closed space, where 

the so-called fire-graph initially rises exponentially then 

flattens out with the diminution of available combustible 

material before finally, with the exhaustion of the material, the graph ends (fig. 1).

In the case of forest fire the financial loss – time 

function shows an exponentially rising curve rising into 

infinity. The rise of the curve is determined by two factors: one comes from the calculation of the area of the 

circle that is the same as the second power of the radius; 

the second springs from the speed of velocity of the fire 

per single time unit. The two are not really divisible. In 

brief and simple terms: the size of the burnt area per time 

unit depends on the speed of fire velocity, which changes 

quadratically per time unit. The faster the fire’s velocity, 

the larger the burnt forest area. In ideal conditions this 

goes on infinitely. It is clear that decreasing any Δt (finite 

difference in time), the size of the burnt area and thus the 

financial loss diminishes along an exponentially rising 

curve (fig. 2). The two very simple verdicts drawn from 

the infinite and exponential curve are the following:

The closer we can get to the moment of lighting-up, 

the easier it is to fight any given fire.

Accepting the limitations of the fire-fighting capacity 

of a unit it becomes clear that after a certain time a 

given fire can no longer be fought without help.

The analysis of fire-fighting ascertains a number of 

statements. The fire department becomes aware of the 

report through someone noticing the fire. The reporting individual’s subjective assessment considerably 

influences the time of notification. The notification is 

independent of the fire department, the link between the 

report and the time of lighting is often simply the reporting individual’s subjective assessment. Fire departments 

currently endeavor to increase the rapidity of reporting 

through the method of awareness-raising. Following 

the report the fire brigade reaches the location of a fire, 

or at least approaches it, with the minimum delay in accordance to its operational order. This time period can 

not practicably be lowered, and thus can be seen as being 

objectively set and minimal. Approaching the fire on foot 

could cause loss of time if there were a suitable path that 

was more rapidly negotiable by a cross-country vehicle. 

1.

2.

Figure 1. Damage – time function. Closed area.

Figure 2. Damage – time function. Forested area.
726 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

That is dependent on the technical tool, a vehicle. At the 

scene of the fire the first task is investigation, which is 

simply gathering sufficient information to facilitate effective fire-fighting. The effectiveness of the investigation 

can be measured by the efficiency of the fire-fighting. 

A sufficient amount of quality information is needed 

for that. The first job is to establish the extent of the 

fire. A burning area of only 300 m radius represents a 

walk of nearly 2000 m. Accounting for the configurations of the terrain, the obstructive effects of plantation 

and equipment, exploration by foot may extend in time 

considerably. Investigation from the air resolves these 

problems, and this can be achieved by an on-location 

deployed unmanned robot-aircraft (UAV).

Conclusions drawn from the fire-fighting procedures:

The time that has passed before a fire is reported does 

not depend on the fire department, but does lead to a 

delay in intervention.

Time from the report to arrival at the location cannot 

objectively be reduced.

Reaching the location by foot results in delayed intervention.

Investigation on foot extends in time and results in 

a delay in the commencement of effective intervention.

Both the analyses of the financial loss – time function 

and of the fire-fighting procedure show that effective 

fire-fighting depends most on the time factor. Rapid intervention calculated from the point of lighting appears 

firstly in reduced financial loss and secondly in reduced 

costs for deploying forces and equipment.

Modules

The second part consists of three modules, further 

expandable later:

Tower based fire-detecting unit

A mobile deployment control and support unit

1.

2.

3.

4.

1.

2.

Static and dynamic decision-support unit

Complementaries (for example, module aimed at 

fighting large-expanse fires)

Tower based fire-detecting unit

The centrally installed monitoring and fire-detecting 

unit is the system’s first module, which employs active 

detection in the place of the current passive system. Szár 

Hill, 520 m tall and located near the geometric centre of 

the area of operations of the Szendrő Fire Department, 

has had a 120m tall broadcasting tower installed on it. The 

promontory is the most important point of elevation in 

the region, and allows a large area to be monitored from 

there without any visual occlusion. In the course of the 

project two rotatable cameras would be installed on the 

first floor of the tower at a height of approx. 50 m, which 

would transmit to the dispatching centre of the Szendrő

Fire Department. The duty officer will be able to detect 

any fire or smoke within a very short period from a fire 

igniting, and before it would be reported by telephone 

by anyone. The cameras, which have appropriate resolution, will also be able to generate automatic signals 

or alarms, depending on their settings. The accuracy of 

both automatic alarm signals and personal detection will 

deteriorate in proportion to distance, but even at the edge 

of the area to be monitored, defined as a circle with a 15 

to 20 km radius around the tower, it will have to comply 

with the perceptual threshold of 160 m2 (fig. 3).

The above shall ensure, both on the detection and 

the alarm side, that under normal conditions the unit 

arriving to extinguish the fire will be confronted by a 

vegetation fire that they are able to extinguish using their 

own resources.

The geographical features allow fires to be detected 

within a short period of their starting, either by direct 

visual observation of hillsides, in the valley of the Bódva 

and on unoccluded hillsides, or, depending on the location, directly or indirectly in the valleys of others and 

3.

4.

Figure 3. Detection.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 727

indirectly by detecting the smoke rising from occluded 

hillsides. Fires in valleys and in lower-lying areas can be 

detected by detecting pillars of smoke. When the smoke 

rises over the ridge of the hill occluding the area, it can 

be detected by one of the cameras. The relatively small 

height differential between ridges and the lowest points 

of valleys (50m to max. 200 m) will allow even the pillars of smoke from small fires to be detected, despite the 

mixing of air and the resultant “thinning” of smoke.

Mobile deployment control and support unit

The mobile deployment control and support unit is 

the system’s second module. Once a fire is detected, it 

is crucial that the site be reached as soon as possible in 

order to perform precise reconnaissance of the fire, and to 

commence extinguishing using the appropriate tactics. At 

present, since the roads are not negotiable by fire-engines, 

fires are often accessed by foot over distances of several 

kilometers, on some occasions with a fire-hose, which 

carries the risk of the hose being damaged or caught. On 

the one hand, that may cause significant delays in initiating efficient extinguishing of the fire, while on the other 

hand, if additional damage is incurred, that may mean 

having to take an unacceptable level of risk whilst also 

incurring generated delays. The delay caused by having 

to access a fire on foot may mean that the fire covers an 

area that is so large that our own unit is no longer sufficient to extinguish it. The transition to a higher level of 

emergency may, on the one hand, result in increased risk 

in other regions as resources are regrouped from there to 

the fire concerned, whilst on the other hand it also leads 

to increased costs.

The above considerations justify the use of a vehicle 

with strong all-terrain capabilities to access scenes of fire. 

The vehicle would also allow the traditional and modern 

equipment that is widely used in international practice 

to be transported to the scene (Nagy 2004).

Static and dynamic decision support

Static decision support—Appropriate information is 

a precondition for tactically correct intervention, which 

presupposes accurate reconnaissance performed by the 

leader of the fire-fighting unit. As areas are usually accessed from the direction of valleys, a good overview of 

the area affected by the fire is generally not available. 

Walking around the fire is time-consuming and, in the 

case of a larger area under flame, the leader of the firefighting unit is evidently physically too close to the fire 

to be able to make the correct decision concerning the 

type of intervention based on an assessment of both the 

fire and its environment (Restás 2004). International 

practice has produced a few examples for establishing 

the velocity of the fire based on preliminary calculations 

(Bryan 2003, Chandler and others 1983).

The above data-series can determine the velocity 

parameters of a fire if summarized with a mathematical 

algorithm (velocity model). This is the static fire velocity calculation that can be displayed for the fire-fighting 

leader on a digital map (3D – terrain model) on an on-site 

laptop. If we also summarise the parameters of the current 

weather conditions (temperature, humidity, speed and 

direction of wind), then the anticipatable fire velocity in 

accordance to situation at the time can be seen. All the 

data that may be represented in a map shall be stored in 

digitized format. User-friendly programs will also allow 

the risk levels of the area to be displayed in real time. 

Hence, instead of estimates concerning the spread of the 

fire based on previous experience, the likely spread of 

the fire can be determined on the basis of real, objective 

data.

Dynamic decision support—Accurate and rapid reconnaissance shall be facilitated by a Mosquito-type 

reconnaissance robot. The flying unit will support integrated decision-making based on geographic information 

systems. This is justified by the articulation of the terrain 

and the plant communities characteristic of the area, 

which can delay or even prevent accurate, rapid reconnaissance. Thus, serious delays in determining the correct 

emergency level and defining the correct fire-fighting 

tactics in time for them to be used can be incurred. This 

instrument, which can be deployed on site immediately, 

and which can provide an accurate and comprehensive 

view of the fire situation can eliminate the delays and 

inaccuracy caused by difficult terrain (Restás 2004).

The possibilities for employing a robot aircraft: With 

the use of a special “pencil,” the fire-fighting leader draws 

the path of reconnaissance on a map displayed on a laptop. This is not difficult since the leader is able to judge 

the approximate size of the fire, but this is not yet enough 

to satisfy the preconditions for effective fire-fighting. 

The robot converts the path received onto the digital 

map stored on the machine’s memory. Using its built-in 

GPS system, the robot, which can take off vertically, flies 

along the specified path and transmits a continuous, realtime image to the display of the laptop computer from 

the camera (thermal camera) that it carries. The accurate 

visual information received on the parameters of the fire 

(dynamic element) can be transformed onto the digital 

map as quickly as possible. If we now connect the hottest 

spots with a mathematical algorithm, objective information about the fire’s exact line can be determined. Thus 

the fire-fighting leader can obtain information about a 

given fire that can satisfy the demands of effective firefighting, within a minimal amount of time.
728 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Conclusions

Integrated Vegetation Fire Management involves a 

number of applications that have an innovative character 

in Hungarian fire-fighting. The system does not condemn 

the principle of fire extinguishing in the traditional way, it 

is a supplement to it. It is a local initiative that emerged to 

tackle local problems. However, favourable experiences 

from the system’s application could also be adopted elsewhere in Hungary. Its effectiveness has to be judged on 

economic rather than emotional grounds. IVFM is not a 

cost-free system, it could not possibly be. If we accept 

that the efficiency of the current system is not optimal for 

fighting vegetation fires, then the reserves of the system 

not simply ought to be, but must be exploited. The analysis and its conclusions demonstrate that the premise of 

effective fire-fighting depends on the speed of intervention. As long as a time-reserve, unexploited in the current 

system, exists prior to the initiation of fire-fighting, using 

it is more than a possibility, it is an obligation.

The Area Monitoring and Fire Detection Unit installed 

on the tower ensures, from the perspective of recognizance and alarm, that the unit arriving for action will face 

a vegetation fire that in can fight with its own forces. The 

Mobile Deployment Control and Support Unit ensures 

an optimal approach to the fire and that the Static and 

Dynamic Decision Support Unit will reach the location. 

The tried and trusted principle of air-reconnaissance 

can be available to even the smallest fire department 

through the use of the reconnaissance robot aircraft. 

Traditional reconnaissance does not offer information 

quantitatively nor qualitatively appropriate to standards 

of the modern era. The robot aircraft, suited to the demands of fire departments, and that can also be used by 

small fire departments, significantly contributes to solving that problem. The dynamic decision support is able 

to provide initial data for static decision support. Thus, 

instead of an estimate of fire velocity based on previous 

experiences, the fire’s actual scale and velocity can be 

objectively defined.

The application of the IVFM is expected to result in 

increasingly effective interventions, which can achieve 

a growth in the size of preserved forest areas, as well as 

a decrease in the area of territory destroyed. The costs of 

development and application need to be judged based on 

economic considerations, and seen as effective if returns 

are brought at the state economy level. The requisition 

of firemen may diminish, and the need for help may 

frequently be avoided. In the absence of superfluous 

requisitions, the potential risk to the general public diminishes in a higher degree of fire-security.

References

Bleszity, J., Zelenák. M. 1989. A tűzoltás taktikája [The tactics 

of fire-fighting]. Budapest: BM Könyvkiadó, 101 p.

Bryan, L. 2003. “Fire Danger, Fire Risk, Fire Threat – Mapping 

Methods.” EARSeL, 4th International Workshop on Remote 

Sensing and GIS Applications to Forest Fire Management, 

Ghent, Belgium, 7 June 2003.

Bussay, A. 1995. “Az erdőtűz meteorológus szemmel” [Forest 

fire from the meteorologist’s perspective]. In Légkör 40, 2, 

15 – 17. Budapest.

Chandler, C., Cheney, P., Thomas P., Trabaud L., Williams D., 

1983. “Fire in Forestry.” In Vol I. Fire Behavior and Effects. 

John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY 295 – 298.

Goldammer, J. G. 2004. “The Global Wildland Fire 

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East and Central Asia. Antalya, Turkey, 30 March – 3 April 

2004.

Goldammer, J. G. 2004. “Towards Developing a Global 

Wildland Fire Strategy.” 2nd Symposium on Fire 

Economics, Planning and Policy, Cordoba, Spain, 19 –22. 

April 2004.

Hargitai, M. 2003. “Jön a száraz meleg? Hazai klímaprogram 

lehetséges forgatókönyvekkel” [Arid warmth is coming? 

Hungarian climate programme with possible scripts]. In 

Népszabadság, 61, 13. September 2003. Budapest.

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Budapest.

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of the forest]. In Védelem 9, 5, 6 p. Budapest.

Jurvélius, M. 2004. “Legal Frameworks for Forest Fire 

Management: International Agreements and National 

Legislation.” 2nd Symposium on Fire Economics, Planning 

and Policy, Cordoba, Spain, 19 –22. April 2004.

Leone, V., Lovreglio R. Human Fire Causes: “A Challenge 

for Modeling.” EARSeL, 4th International Workshop 

on Remote Sensing and GIS Applications to Forest Fire 

Management, Ghent, Belgium, 7 June 2003.

Mika, J. 1988. “A globális felmelegedés regionális sajátosságai 

a Kárpát-medencében” [Regional characteristic of global 

warmth in the Carpathian Basin]. In Időjárás, 92, 178 

– 189. Budapest.

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the world]. In Erdészeti Lapok, 139, 4, 122 – 124. 

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problémái Magyarországon” [Prevention and extinguishing practices and problems of forest fires in Hungary]. In 

Erdészeti Lapok, 139, 5, 156 – 159. Budapest.

Restás, Á. 2004. “Robot Reconnaissance Aircraft.” UAVnet 

9th meeting, Amsterdam, 27. January 2004.

Restás, Á. 2004. “How To Measure the Utility of Robot 

Reconnaissance Aircraft Supporting Fighting Forest Fire.” 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 729

Introduction

The 1992 Earth Summit (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) 

enunciated principles for sustainable development 

of the world’s forest resources (United Nations 

1992). Subsequently, the 11 signatory nations to the 

1995 Santiago Declaration, representing about 90 

percent of the world’s boreal and temperate forest 

cover, affirmed the recommendations of the Montreal 

Process that prescribed a set of seven criteria and 67 

indicators for evaluating forest ecosystem sustainability (WGCICSMTBF 1995). Although the Montreal 

specifications provided relatively clear definitions of 

ecosystem attributes requiring evaluation, the Montreal 

Process did not prescribe how criteria and indicators 

(C&I) were to be interpreted to draw conclusions about 

the state of forest ecosystem sustainability. Reynolds 

(2001) suggested an approach to C&I evaluation based 

on a formal logic specification.

Gustafson and others (2003) discussed the potential 

use of logic models for ecological modeling in general. 

More specific examples of the possible uses of logic 

modeling in natural resource science include evaluating 

compatible resource uses (Reynolds 2002a), evaluating 

the social acceptability of decision processes (Reynolds 

2002b), use of logic frameworks as a way to integrate 

diverse models (Reynolds 2003), and a way to integrate 

science and policy (Reynolds and others 2003a). Logic 

models also have been employed in decision support applications for landscape analysis and planning, including 

applications for design of biodiversity reserve systems 

(Bourgeron and others 2000), diagnosing departures in 

landscape structure and functioning (Hessburg and others 2004; Reynolds and Hessburg 2004), effectiveness 

monitoring (Reeves and others 2003; Reynolds and 

Reeves 2003), and watershed analysis (Reynolds and 

others 2000; Reynolds and Peets 2001).

Potential application of the Ecosystem Management 

Decision Support (EMDS) system for evaluating forest 

ecosystem sustainability has been described previously 

in a brief report (Reynolds 2001). This paper presents 

results on evaluating national criteria 2 (productive 

capacity of forest ecosystems) and 6 (socioeconomic 

benefits derived from forest management) at the scale 

of the Resource Planning Act (RPA) regions used by 

the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service in 

its periodic national reports.

Decision Support for Evaluating the U.S. National Criteria 

and Indicators for Forest Ecosystem Sustainability

Keith M. Reynolds, research forester, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Research Station, Corvallis, OR

Abstract—This paper describes and illustrates the use of the Ecosystem Management 

Decision Support (EMDS) system for evaluating the U.S. national criteria and indicators 

for forest ecosystem sustainability at the scale of Resource Planning Act (RPA) regions. 

The evaluation component of EMDS uses a logic engine to evaluate landscape condition, and the RPA-scale application demonstrates one practical approach to unifying 

knowledge for evaluation of forest ecosystem sustainability. EMDS (version 3.0.2) is 

an extension to ArcMap (ArcGIS 8.x), and is implemented as a general application 

framework that provides integrated decision support for environmental evaluation and 

planning at multiple spatial scales.

In this study, national criteria two and six (productive capacity of forest ecosystems and 

socioeconomic benefits derived from forest management, respectively) were evaluated. 

Most data needed to evaluate criterion 2 were available in a recent national report, and 

results of evaluation indicate strong support for the proposition that productive capacity 

of forest ecosystems is adequate within all RPA regions. Evidence for suitable levels of 

socioeconomic benefits varied from weak to moderate across RPA regions, but conclusions were substantially influenced by missing data within all subcriteria.
730 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Methods

Criteria and Indicators

Prabhu and others (2001) describe criteria and indicators as “information tools in the service of forest 

management” in the sense that they “can be used to 

conceptualize, evaluate, implement, and communicate 

sustainable forest management.” For the purposes of this 

paper, I follow the definitions of C&I given by Prabhu 

and others (1999):

Indicator: An indicator is any variable or component 

of the forest ecosystem ... used to infer attributes of 

the sustainability of the resource and its utilization. 

Indicators should convey a ‘single meaningful message.’ This ‘single message’ is termed information. It 

represents an aggregate of one or more data elements 

with certain established relationships.

Criterion: A standard that a thing is judged by. Criteria 

are the intermediate points to which the information 

provided by the indicators can be integrated and where 

an interpretable assessment crystallizes. Principles 

[for example, sustainability] form the final point of 

integration.

In addition to C&I, it is also necessary for subsequent 

discussion to define measurement endpoints. Some national indicators are simple; their definition suggests an 

obvious one-to-one correspondence between an indicator 

and a measure for that indicator. However, definitions of 

some indicators are more complex in the sense that they 

represent a synthesis of two or more data elements, which 

I refer to subsequently as measurement endpoints.

Data Sources

Most data used as measurement endpoints in this study 

were obtained from the 2003 national report on sustainable forests (Anonymous 2003). Some socioeconomic 

data, primarily used to normalize data on measurement 

endpoints obtained from the 2003 report, were obtained 

from the U.S. Census Bureau. Data available in the 2003 

report were not adequate to evaluate productive capacity 

of non-timber forest products, so data for measurement 

endpoints related to this indicator were provided as 

subjective likelihoods from an expert source (Susan 

Alexander, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 

Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, personal 

communication).

•

•

The Ecosystem Management Decision 

Support System

EMDS version 3.0.2 (Reynolds 2002c; Reynolds 

and others 2003b) is a decision support system for integrated landscape evaluation and planning. The system 

provides decision support for landscape-level analyses 

through logic and decision engines integrated with the 

ArcGIS® 8.x geographic information system (GIS, 

Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, 

CA). The NetWeaver logic engine (Rules of Thumb, 

Inc., North East, PA) evaluates landscape data against 

a formal logic specification, designed in the NetWeaver 

Developer System, to derive logic‐based interpretations 

of ecosystem conditions such as sustainability. The decision engine evaluates NetWeaver outcomes (and data 

related to feasibility and efficacy of land management actions) against a decision model for prioritizing landscape 

features. This study did not use the planning component 

of EMDS, so it is not discussed further here. However, 

its potential use in conjunction with the evaluation component is considered subsequently in the Discussion.

Representing the National Criteria and 

Indicators in Logic

The criteria for productive capacity and socioeconomic benefits include four (table 1), and 19 (table 2) 

indicators, respectively. Each table presents the logic as 

an outline of topics for conciseness, but the logic structure 

of topics is actually represented graphically in NetWeaver 

during logic design (fig. 1). With 19 indicators and many 

more measurement endpoints, the full logic structure 

for socioeconomic benefits is too large to present even 

in outline form, so the outline (table 2) only presents a 

summarized overview of this topic.

In a logic-based approach, topics for evaluation have 

associated propositions (tables 1and 2), which evidence 

may tend either to support or to refute. The statement 

of a proposition is free-from text, and, particularly for 

topics higher in a logic structure that deal with relatively 

abstract concepts, this statement may be somewhat generalized. However, the logic construct of the topic (fig. 

1), together with those of its underlying topics, makes 

the meaning of each proposition relatively precise in the 

sense that requirements for support of a proposition are 

well defined.

The representation of any problem evaluated by 

NetWeaver can be seen as a logical argument if each 

proposition is regarded as testing a conclusion, in which 

case the topics on which it depends may be regarded as 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 731

Table 1. Logic outline for U.S. national criterion 2, forest productive capacity.

Topic namea Proposition

Forest productive capacity (AND)b Forest productive capacity is adequate.

Forest land (CALC)c (indicator 2.10) Productive forest land area is a suitable proportion of total forest land area.

Forest volume (CALC) (indicator 2.11) Volume of nonmerchantable timber on productive forest land is not excessive.

Removals (CALC) (indicator 2.13) Annual harvest volumes do not significantly exceed annual increment.

Nontimber forest products (UNION)d Productive capacity of nontimber forest products is adequate.

(indicator 2.14)

Ediblese (UNION) Productive capacity of edible products is adequate.

Animalsf (UNION) Productive capacity of animals is adequate.

Plantsg (UNION) Productive capacity of key plants is adequate.

a

Terms in parentheses following a topic name indicate operators by which topics at the next lower level of the outline are combined. When applicable, 

the national indicator designation (Anonymous 2003) with which the topic is most closely associated is indicated underneath the topic name. b

The AND operator indicates that topics at the next level in the outline are treated as limiting factors. The result of the evaluation is biased toward 

the most limiting factor. c

Topics followed by the CALC operator indicate elementary topics that evaluate the results of mathematical operations on one or more measurement 

endpoints. Mathematical details are omitted for brevity. d

The UNION operator indicates that topics at the next level in the outline are treated as incrementally contributing to the evaluation of their parent 

topic. The result of the evaluation is a weighted average, in which poor performance in one topic can be partially compensated by good 

performance on others. e

The edibles topic includes evaluation of berry and mushroom production capacities, both of which are elementary topics.

f

The animals topic includes evaluation of production capacities for game and fur-bearing animals, both of which are elementary topics.

g

The plant topic includes evaluation of production capacities for medicinal and decorative plants, both of which are elementary topics.

Table 2. Logic outline for U.S. national criterion 3, socioeconomic benefits.

Frequency of missing 

Topic namea Proposition values (%)

Socioeconomic benefits (ANDb) A suitable level of socioeconomic benefits are being

derived from current management of forests.

Productionc (indicators 6.29 to 6.34) Current levels of production of forest products are adequate. 30

Recreationd (indicators 6.35 to 6.37) Types and amounts of recreational opportunities are adequate. 34

Investmente (indicators 6.38 to 6.41) Level of investment in the forest sector is adequate. 33

Cultural resourcesf (indicators 6.42 Cultural, social, and spiritual needs are being satisfied. 50

and 6.43)

Employmentg (indicators 6.44 to 6.47) Employment conditions in the forest sector are adequate. 51

a

Terms in parentheses following a topic name indicate operators by which topics at the next lower level of the outline are combined. When applicable, 

national indicator designations (Anonymous 2003) with which the topic is most closely associated is indicated underneath the topic name. b

The AND operator indicates that topics at the next level in the outline are treated as limiting factors. The result of the evaluation is biased toward 

the most limiting factor. c

 The production topic is a subcriterion of criterion 6, and includes evaluation of value and volume of wood and wood products production (indicator 

29), value and volume of nonwood forest products (indicator 30), supply and consumption of wood and wood products (indicator 31), value of 

wood and nonwood products as percent of GDP (indicator 32), degree of wood product recycling (indicator 33), and supply and consumption 

of nonwood forest products (indicator 34). d

 The recreation topic is a subcriterion of criterion 6, and includes evaluation of: area of forest land managed for general recreation and tourism 

(indicator 35), number and types of facilities available for general recreation and tourism (indicator 36), and number of visitor days attributed to 

recreation and tourism (indicator 37). e

 The investment topic is a subcriterion of criterion 6, and includes evaluation of: value of investment (indicator 38), level of expenditure on research 

and development and education (indicator 39), use of new technology (indicator 40), and rate of return on investment (indicator 41). f

 The cultural topic is a subcriterion of criterion 6, and includes evaluation of: area of forest land managed to protect the range of cultural, social and 

spiritual needs and values (indicator 42), and non-consumptive use of forest land (indicator 43). g

 The cultural topic is a subcriterion of criterion 6, and includes evaluation of: direct and indirect employment in forest sector (indicator 44), average 

wage and injury rates (indicator 45), viability and adaptability to changing economic conditions (indicator 46), and area of forest land used for 

subsistence (indicator 47).
732 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

its premises. Thus, fig. 1 can be interpreted as “forest 

productive capacity is adequate to the degree that each of 

its four premises is satisfied.” Each premise contributes 

some strength of evidence for the conclusion about forest 

productive capacity. The measure for strength of evidence is a continuous-valued, dimensionless metric that 

originates with the evaluation of elementary topics (for 

example, forest land in table 1) that evaluate data (measurement endpoints) as evidence at the lowest levels of 

the logic. Reynolds and others (2003a) provide additional 

details about evaluating data as evidence and about basic 

logic operators such as AND and OR. The key point here, 

however, is that data in elementary 

topics are evaluated for the strength of 

evidence they provide with respect to 

reference conditions that ideally have 

been derived from scientific studies and 

perhaps policy considerations.

Derivation of the Logic

The basic structure for the logic 

(tables 1 and 2) was originally developed by the author to correspond 

as closely as possible to the topic 

outline suggested by the Working 

Group on Criteria and Indicators for 

the Conservation and Sustainable 

Management of Temperate and Boreal 

Forests (WGCICSMTBF 1995). 

However, the WGCICSMTBF topic 

outline did not include specifications for how topics 

might be combined through logic operators, so initial 

suggestions for synthesizing information with logic operators also were developed by the author (tables 1 and 

2). A panel of internationally recognized authorities on 

issues of forest ecosystem sustainability was convened 

to review the resulting logic structure as an initial check 

on its reasonableness. Among others, the panel included 

John Gordon (Yale), Jerry Franklin (University of 

Washington), Norm Johnson, and Hal Salwasser (Oregon 

State University). Specific formulations for propositions 

at the lowest levels of the topic hierarchy (tables 1 and 2) 

were subsequently developed by the author. A key principle in formulating each proposition was that the relevant 

metric being evaluated by a topic should be normalized 

whenever possible. So, for example, rather than evaluating the absolute values of forest growth increment and 

harvest volume (components of indicator 2.13 in table 

1), the Removals topic tests the proposition that there is 

a suitable ratio of growth increment to removals.

Results

Logic-based interpretation of data from the 2003 report (Anonymous 2003), census data, and expert opinion 

indicated strong support for the proposition that overall 

productive capacity of forest ecosystems within the four 

RPA regions was adequate (fig. 2). In fact, evidence 

indicated full support for the three premises associated 

with the forest land, forest volume, and removals topics 

(table 1). On the other hand, evidence for adequate productive capacity within non-timber forest products fell 

within a range that could be characterized as moderate 

Figure 1. Graphic representation of a logic model in NetWeaver. 

Strength of evidence for the proposition that forest productive 

capacity is adequate depends on strength of evidence for 

its four premises, forest land, forest volume, removals, and 

nontimber forest products. Each premise similarly represents 

a topic to be evaluated for its strength of evidence. Partial 

details for the four premises are outlined in table 1.

Figure 2. Evidence for adequate productive capacity of forest ecosystems in RPA 

regions of the U.S. Strength of evidence for the premises of productive capacity 

(table 1, fig. 1) also are shown.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 733

(fig. 2), and this result constrained the overall evaluation 

of forest productive capacity due to the influence of the 

AND operator (fig. 1) that treats individual premises as 

potentially limiting factors.

Overall strength of evidence for suitable levels of socioeconomic benefits derived from forest management 

varied from weak to moderate across the four RPA regions 

(fig. 3). However, the relatively poor performance on this 

criterion was partly due to negative conclusions about 

indicators. Instead, the lower levels for strength of evidence in this case are often attributable to significant data 

gaps in all subtopics (table 2). The influence of missing 

data on evaluation of production (table 2), for example, 

is typical. The production topic includes indicators 6.29 

to 6.34 (although indicator 6.32 is not used in the current logic model) which are organized within the three 

subtopics, wood production, production of non-timber 

forest products, and recycling (indicator 6.33). Data were 

not available on recycling, and this lack of evidence constrained the strength of the conclusion about production, 

given available evidence, because strength of evidence on 

the other two subtopics was moderately strong.

Discussion

A Framework for Science, Policy, and 

Communication

Perhaps one of the most useful aspects of a logic-based 

approach to evaluating forest ecosystems is that logic 

provides a formal framework within which possibly numerous interdependent issues of science 

and policy can be organized to guide the needed 

dialogue between scientists and policymakers 

to perform an evaluation (Reynolds and others 

2003a). Conceptual models can be very useful 

in the initial design stage of a logic-based approach, but, as Gustafson and others (2003) have 

discussed, they have significant limitations when 

used as stand-alone modeling solutions. In particular, lack of a formal structured logic in typical 

conceptual models can result in the entities and 

their relations being semantically vague at best 

and unintelligible at worst. Although formal logic 

frameworks are not entirely immune from such 

problems, they are far less prone to them. In fact, 

the graphical form of logic representation is not 

only a powerful form of communication among 

model developers, but an intuitive medium in 

which to explain the results of evaluations to 

audiences who may have little or no technical 

background in modeling (Reynolds and Reeves 2003).

Missing Data

The 2003 report on the state of forest ecosystems in 

the U.S. (Anonymous 2003) was a landmark publication 

with respect to the scope of the ecological and socioeconomic indictors that it attempted to address. However, not 

too surprisingly, even given several years of preparation 

to produce this report, there were numerous data gaps. 

An important contributing factor was that the scope 

and complexity of questions being asked about forest 

ecosystem had increased dramatically over the past 20 

years. Indeed, missing data is a recurrent issue in most 

modern programs of landscape monitoring and assessment. In this particular study, all data on forest productive 

capacity were available in one form or another, but there 

were significant data gaps in all subcriteria of the socioeconomic criterion (table 2).

In a logic context, data are evidence, and missing 

evidence does not preclude a useful evaluation, but constrains the strength of conclusions (fig. 3). In the present 

study, for example, it is possible to conclude that available evidence indicates there is at least weak to moderate 

support for the proposition that levels of socioeconomic 

benefits derived from forest management are adequate 

across the four RPA regions. To appreciate the value of 

this partial answer, consider that 50 to 70 percent of the 

data on subcriteria of the socioeconomic criteria were 

available, and that none of the available data led to the 

conclusion that the levels of socioeconomic benefits 

were inadequate.

Figure 3. Evidence for suitable levels of socioeconomic benefits derived 

from forest management in RPA regions of the U.S. Strength of evidence 

for the premises of socioeconomic benefits (table 2) also are shown.
734 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Perhaps just as importantly, logic engines such as that 

integrated in EMDS can interpret interdependencies in 

data and analysis topics to calculate a measure of the influence of missing information, and this information can 

readily be incorporated into simple decision models to 

evaluate the priority of missing information, taking into 

account its influence and other logistical considerations, 

such as how expensive it might to acquire the missing 

data (Reynolds 2002c, Reynolds and others 2003b).

Additional Lines of Future 

Development

The current application could easily be extended in 

two potentially useful respects.

First, the present example illustrates evaluation at 

a single spatial scale. However, EMDS applications 

can accommodate multiple spatial scales. Reynolds 

and Peets (2001) have illustrated integrated evaluation 

across multiple spatial scales in the context of watershed 

assessment for salmon habitat restoration. In the present 

context, virtually all of the indicators for criteria 2 and 6 

could be evaluated at the scale of States, and State-scale 

results summarized to RPA regions as area-weighted 

averages. More generally, evaluations of criteria can 

be parsed among scales as necessary. For example, 

the biodiversity, global carbon cycle, and institutional 

framework criteria (1, 5, and 7, respectively) are most 

likely best evaluated at the broader scale of RPA regions. 

Multiple scales can be employed within a single EMDS 

application in other ways as well. For example, evaluations of criteria 2 and 6 at the scale of National Forests 

might be superimposed on their corresponding regional 

evaluations to place the Forest-scale evaluations in their 

broader regional context.

Second, the present paper does not consider analysis 

of management priorities for maintenance or restoration 

of forest ecosystems within the RPA regions. However, 

EMDS includes a planning component that uses a decision engine to evaluate planning models built with 

Criterium DecisionPlus® (CDP, InfoHarvest, Seattle, 

WA). The CDP models implement the analytical hierarchy process (AHP, Saaty 1994), the simple multi‐attribute 

rating technique (SMART, Kamenetzky, 1982), or a 

combination of the AHP and SMART methods. Reynolds 

(2000) provided a detailed example of applying AHP 

and SMART to develop priorities for salmon habitat 

restoration. Reynolds and Hessburg (2004) provided an 

example of decision modeling with CDP in conjunction 

with EMDS applications.

The distinction between the evaluation and planning 

phases of analysis as implemented in EMDS has important consequences for users developing management 

applications because it simplifies the overall analytical 

problem into two simpler problems. In evaluation, the 

question of interest is, “What is the state of the system?,” 

whereas, in planning, the question is, “Which areas are 

the highest priority for management?” Decomposing the 

problem is this way avoids confusion in the assessment 

process by cleanly separating issues about the current 

state of a system from issues about where management 

or restoration activities ought to occur. An important side 

effect of this problem decomposition is that logistical 

considerations about the feasibility or efficacy of potential management activities are easily accommodated 

within the planning component.

Conclusions

Evaluating forest ecosystem sustainability within 

a formal logic framework illustrates one practical approach to unifying knowledge within a large, abstract 

problem domain. Some specific benefits that derive from 

the logic-based approach include 1) a rigorous approach 

to problem specification that simultaneously expedites 

dialog among model developers while facilitating communication of model results to non-technical audiences in 

intuitive terms, 2) effective use of partial information in 

the early stages of monitoring when information is often 

incomplete, and 3) the availability of metrics for evaluating the influence of missing information which can help 

optimize how data gaps are subsequently filled.

Within the broader context of a decision support 

framework, knowledge unification in a logic framework 

can be viewed as a form of knowledge integration. 

Additional practical examples of integration within a 

decision support framework include the ability to link 

scales of evaluation, and the ability to explicitly link the 

evaluation and planning phases of adaptive management 

(Reynolds and Hessburg, 2004; Reynolds and Peets, 

2001).

Acknowledgments

This study was conducted with support from the 

USDA Forest Service Washington Office, Ecosystem 

Management Coordination staff. I thank Dr. Michael 

C. Saunders (Pennsylvania State University), Dr. K. 

Norman Johnson (Oregon State University), and Dr. Paul 

F. Hessburg (USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest 

Research Station) for their thoughtful review of the 

manuscript.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 735

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Introduction

Comprising over 57 percent of total forest cover, 

America’s private forests make enormous contributions 

to water quality, biodiversity, timber, recreation, and essential ecological and economic functions. However, the 

conversion of private forest lands to urban uses threatens 

to reduce forests’ ability to provide these functions.

Although there are many areas of the country that are 

experiencing an increase in private forest land, overall 

private forest land area is declining slightly (Smith and 

others 2004). Between 1982 and 1997, over 4 million ha 

(10 million acres) of non-Federal forests were converted 

to developed uses across the conterminous United States 

(USDA 2000) and an additional 9.3 million ha (23 million 

acres) may be lost by 2050 (Alig and others 2003).

The effects of development on private forest management have been documented in several localized studies. 

These studies have illustrated both short and long-term 

negative impacts of population growth and urban expansion on forest management for economic functions, such 

as timber production. In western Virginia, increasing 

human population densities affected long-term timber 

management capabilities by reducing timber land area 

and growing stock volumes by approximately 40 percent 

(Wear and others 1999). Private forest stakeholders 

in Wisconsin indicated that parcelization caused by 

development makes timber production less profitable 

and can result in a shift from commercially valued 

aspen, pine, and oak to less valued species such as red 

maple (Gobster and Rickenbach 2004). In Mississippi 

and Alabama, proximity to urban land uses and higher 

population densities led to a net decrease in harvesting 

rates (Barlow 1998).

Population growth and urban expansion are also related to reductions in non-timber forest management and 

investment in private forest lands. A 2004 study focused 

in western Oregon concluded that increased building 

densities are correlated with reduced forest stocking 

and pre-commercial thinning, as well as a reduced likelihood for tree planting following thinning (Kline and 

others 2004). Private forest landowners in Georgia’s 

metropolitan counties were less likely to participate in 

government incentive programs for protecting soils and 

Forests on the Edge: A GIS-based Approach to Projecting 

Housing Development on Private Forests

Susan Stein, Private Forestland Studies Coordinator and Mike Dechter, Natural Resource 

Specialist, USDA Forest Service, Cooperative Forestry, Washington, DC

Ron McRoberts and Mark Nelson, Forest Inventory and Analysis Researchers, USDA Forest 

Service, North Central Research Station, St. Paul, MN

David Theobald, scientist, Natural Resource Ecology Lab, Colorado State University, 

Fort Collins, CO

Mike Eley, GIS Coordinator for American Farmland Trust, Washington, DC

Abstract—The private working land base of America’s forests, farms, and ranches is 

being converted at the rate of nearly 1,620 ha (4,000 acres) per day with tremendous 

economic, ecological, and social impacts. The United States Department of Agriculture 

(USDA) Forest Service is sponsoring the “Forests on the Edge” project to develop a 

better understanding of the contributions of America’s private forests to timber, wildlife, 

and water resources and the pressures exerted on these resources from development, 

fire, air pollution, and insects and diseases. The project uses Geographic Information 

Systems (GIS) techniques to construct a series of maps depicting pressures and opportunities on America’s private forests in the lower 48 states. Phase I of the project 

identifies fourth-level watersheds with private forests that are projected to experience 

increased housing density by 2030. The majority of these watersheds are in the eastern 

United States, although some that are projected to experience the greatest percent 

change are in the West. The methodology, results, and planned uses of Phase I products 

are presented, as are examples of the potential impacts of increased housing density on 

forest attributes such as wildlife, timber, and water.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 737

tree planting than landowners in more rural counties 

(Harris and DeForest 1993).

The objective of this project, denoted Forests on the 

Edge and sponsored by the Forest Service, was to identify 

areas in the conterminous United States where private 

forests are likely to experience increases in housing 

density between 2000 and 2030. The project focused 

on lands projected to shift from rural or ex-urban use to 

urban use, and from rural use to ex-urban. These levels 

of “use” are based on housing density levels and are 

defined in the Analyses section.

Methods

Data

A 100-m spatial resolution dataset of the conterminous United States differentiating combinations of land 

cover and land ownership was constructed from the 1992 

National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) (Vogelmann and 

others 2001) and the Protected Areas Database (PAD) 

(DellaSala and others 2001). NLCD is a 30-m resolution, 21-class, land cover classification derived from 

nominal 1991 Landsat Thematic Mapper imagery and 

ancillary data by the U.S. Geological Survey. Forest/

non-forest data were obtained from NLCD by collapsing 

its Transitional (33), Deciduous Forest (41), Evergreen 

Forest (42), Mixed Forest (43), and Woody Wetlands (91) 

classes into a forest class and the remaining classes into 

a non-forest class. PAD is an ArcInfo polygon coverage 

compiled by the Conservation Biology Institute (CBI). 

PAD contains boundaries of most Federal and Stateowned/managed protected areas in the conterminous 

United States and Alaska, and includes county, city, and 

private reserves where data were available. Recoded 

NLCD data were re-sampled and recoded PAD data 

were rasterized to 100-m spatial resolution. The two 

resulting grid layers were combined, forming a single 

forest/non-forest ownership grid dataset that was denoted 

FOROWN100M and consisted of six land cover/ownership categories: public non-forest, public forest, protected 

private non-forest, protected private forest, unprotected 

private non-forest, and unprotected private forest. The 

area of land identified in FOROWN100M as forest is 

within a 95 percent confidence interval for the estimate 

of Conterminous United States (CONUS) forest land in 

the draft 2002 tables of the Resource Planning Act (RPA) 

Forest Resources of the United States (http://ncrs2.fs.fed.

us/4801/fiadb/rpa_tabler/2002_rpa_draft_tables.htm). 

No formal accuracy assessment was conducted on the 

ownership attributes in FOROWN100M.

Watersheds were delineated using the HUC250 

database (http://water.usgs.gov/GIS/metadata/usgswrd/

XML/huc250k.xml), which is based on hydrologic unit 

maps published by the U.S. Geological Survey, Office of 

Water Data Coordination. Hydrologic units are encoded 

with an eight-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC); with 

the first two digits indicating the hydrologic region, the 

second two digits indicating the hydrologic subregion, 

the third two digits indicating the accounting unit, and 

the fourth two digits indicating the cataloging unit. 

Watersheds corresponding to these hydrologic units are 

characterized as eight-digit HUC watersheds and are 

1,735 sq. mi. (1,110,400 acres) on average. These data 

were digitized generally at a scale of 1:250,000 but with 

some portions at a scale of 1:100,000 and some at a scale 

of 1:2 million.

Housing density was estimated by drawing from historical and current housing densities at a fine resolution 

to examine spatial patterns of development. Using the 

historical and current housing density patterns as data 

inputs, a forecast simulation model of future housing 

density patterns was developed based on county-level 

population projections.

Nationwide estimates of population and housing 

density were computed from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 

block-group and block data for 2000 (U.S. Census Bureau 

2001a). To estimate current housing density patterns, 

housing density was computed using dasymetric mapping techniques (Theobald 2001a, in review). Census 

blocks were refined using public land information from 

FOROWN100 and water polygons from Census Bureau 

data. Because privately-owned houses are not allowed 

on public land, portions of blocks on public land were 

removed, as were portions of blocks identified as streams, 

rivers, ponds, lakes, and reservoirs. Using these refined 

census block geographies, the number of housing units 

per block, obtained from the 100 percent data of the 

2000 Census STF1 (U.S. Census Bureau 2001b), were 

allocated throughout the refined blocks and weighted to 

reflect the likely heterogeneity of the placement of houses 

that are more likely to be located near roads and less 

likely in portions of blocks distant (greater than 1 km) 

from roads. The allocation of housing units is weighted 

based on road density (computed using an 800 m radius 

moving neighborhood).

Road density was classified into four arbitrary categories that distinguished different levels of development 

and were used to allocate housing density values to 

cells within a block: very low (0.0 - 0.25 km/km2), low 

(0.25 - 1.0 km/km2), medium (1.0 - 5.0 km/km2), and 

high (>5.0 km/km2). Housing density estimates for 1990 

were generated from the “Year Housing Built” question from the sample data Summary File 3 dataset (US 

Census Bureau 2001c). These data are provided at the 

block-group level and were adjusted to ensure that the 
738 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

sum of units by block-groups in a county equaled the 

counts from decadal census using established methods 

(Hammer and others 2004; Radeloff and others 2001; 

Theobald 2001a).

The Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model 

(SERGoM v1) was used to model the full urban-to-rural 

spectrum of housing densities. It uses a supply-demand-allocation approach and assumes that future growth patterns 

will be similar to those found in the past decade. Four basic 

steps are used in SERGoM v1 to forecast future patterns 

on a decadal basis. First, the number of new housing units 

in the next decade is forced to meet the demands of the 

projected county-level population. Population growth 

was converted to new housing units by the county-specific 

housing unit per population ratio for 2000. Population 

estimates were obtained from a demographic-econometric 

model (NPA Data Services 2003). Second, a locationspecific average growth rate from the previous to current 

time step (for example, 1990 to 2000) was computed for 

each of four density classes: urban, suburban, exurban, and 

rural. These growth rates were computed for each 100 m 

cell using a moving neighborhood (radius = 1.6 km) that 

allows within-county heterogeneity and cross-county and 

State boundary growth patterns to be captured. Also, new 

housing units were spatially allocated based on these locally determined growth rates, which assumes that areas 

of future growth are likely to be near current high-growth 

areas or “hot spots.”

Third, the distribution of new housing units was 

adjusted according to accessibility to the nearest urban 

core area. That is, urbanization and conversion to urban 

and exurban land use typically occurs at locations on the 

fringe of urban core areas where land is undeveloped. 

Accessibility is computed in terms of minutes of travel 

time from urban core areas as one would travel along 

the main transportation network. An urban core area is 

defined as a contiguous cluster of greater than 100 ha 

at urban housing density. The distribution of housing 

density was then adjusted by creating a weight surface 

based on travel time from urban areas and is used to 

modify the location of new housing units computed in 

the first step. Fourth, the new housing density was added 

to the current housing density, which makes the assumption that housing density does not decline over time, 

which is reasonable to represent patterns of expansion 

in suburban and exurban areas, but may under represent 

areas that are in fact declining in housing density through 

urban decay or expansion of commercial land use into 

residential areas.

Analyses

Watersheds were selected as the unit of analysis 

to focus on the contributions provided by forests to 

water and watershed quality and condition. Geographic 

Information System (GIS) techniques were used with 

the FOROWN100M and the eight-digit HUC watershed 

layers to select watersheds that satisfied two criteria: 10 

percent or greater forest cover, and 50 percent or more 

of the lands with forest cover in private ownership. GIS 

techniques were also used with the housing density 

layer to create maps depicting the percentages of each 

selected watershed containing private forest projected 

to experience increases in housing density between 

the years 2000 and 2030. Note that the maps displayed 

conversion of private forest land as a percentage of all 

land within the watershed, not just private forest land in 

the watershed. The study was conducted in this way to 

focus on the potential impacts of housing development 

on the watersheds themselves.

Housing density projections displayed in the final 

maps reflect projections for private forest land only. All 

public lands and all non-forested lands were excluded 

from the analyses, as were private forest lands with conservation easements recorded in the PAD.

Housing density was used to characterize the most 

likely and widespread type of development and land use 

conversion facing private forests. There was no attempt to 

depict other types of development or conversion resulting 

from commercial development, road building, mining, 

or conversion of forest to farms or pastures.

Three categories of private forest land were defined 

based on three housing density thresholds: rural, ex-urban, and urban. For the purposes of this study, private 

forest lands were denoted “rural” if they contained 6.2 or 

fewer housing units per km2 (16 or fewer housing units 

per sq. mi.). Forest lands with this housing density can 

generally support a diversity of economic and ecological 

functions commonly associated with private forests such 

as management for timber, most wildlife species, and water quality. Private forest lands were denoted “ex-urban” 

if they contained from 6.2 to 24.7 housing units per km2

(16 to 64 housing units per square mile). Lands with these 

higher housing densities can still support many wildlife 

species and other ecological functions, although perhaps 

at a reduced level. However, management for commercial timber may be less likely. Private forest lands were 

denoted “urban” if they contained 24.7 or more housing 

units per km2 (64 housing units per sq. mi.). Such lands 

are unlikely to be used for timber production and, in many 

States, do not qualify for favorable property tax assessments or technical or financial assistance through State 

or Federal forest management programs. Forest lands 

with this housing density are less likely to contribute to 

wildlife habitat and water quality because of increased 

road density, infrastructure, and human population levels 

associated with this level of development.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 739

Shifts in private forest lands among these categories 

can have strong implications, with respect to management for timber, wildlife, and other values. In western 

Virginia, the transition from rural to urban use occurs 

over a range from 7.7 people per km2 (approximately 

20 people or 8 housing units per sq. mi.) to 27 people 

per km2 (70 people or 28 housing units per square mile). 

The chance of commercial forestry drops from 75 percent 

down to 25 percent over this range (Wear and others 

1999). Similar results have been found for western 

Oregon where pre-commercial thinning and planting following harvest are less likely, and forest stocking levels 

are somewhat lower on forest landscapes with higher 

population densities (Kline and others 2004).

Such shifts in land use can also lead to a decrease in 

wildlife habitat quantity and quality. The cumulative effects of removing native vegetation, constructing fences, 

increasing human contact, and increasing presence of 

small-sized predators (cats and dogs) associated with 

residential development in formerly rural areas can all 

contribute to the displacement of native wildlife populations (Theobald and others 1997).

Results

Maps based on the selected thresholds are displayed in 

figures 1 to 5. The criteria that watersheds have at least 10 

percent total forest cover, of which at least 50 percent is 

in private ownership, focused the analyses on the eastern 

United States where forest cover is more extensive and 

most forest land is in private ownership.

Figure 1 displays the percentage of each watershed 

that contains private forests that are projected to shift 

from rural or ex-urban to urban. Our definition of “exurban” for this map is any forest land containing 6.2 

housing units to 12.7 housing units per km2 (16 to 33 

housing units per sq. mi.), as opposed to the previous 

definition of 6.2 to 24.7 housing units per km2 (16 to 

64 housing units per sq. mi.). This was done to ensure 

that we were not including forest lands experiencing 

only small increases in housing density (for example an 

increase from 64 to 65 or 66 housing units per sq. mi.). 

By 2030, 8,773,847 ha (21.7 million acres) of private 

forest is projected to experience this type of increase in 

housing density.

Two watersheds, one in Maine and one in California, 

are projected to shift from rural or ex-urban to urban on 

20 to 30 percent of their areas. Thirty-eight watersheds 

are projected to experience this shift on 10 to 20 percent 

of their area. Most of these watersheds are scattered 

across the eastern United States, although some are 

located in the Sierra Nevada foothills of California, and 

northern Washington State.

The project also identified the number of acres of 

private forest projected to shift from rural or ex-urban 

to urban use by watershed. The top 20 watersheds are 

presented in figure 2 and table 1. The Lower Penobscot 

watershed in Maine ranks number 1, with 107,671 ha 

(266,066 acres) of private forest projected to experience 

this shift. This is followed by the Etowah watershed in 

Georgia with 84,928 ha (209,866 acres), the Middle 

Hudson watershed in New York with 76,436 ha (188,880 

acres), and the Upper Oconee watershed in Georgia 

with 67,210 ha (166,084 acres). The Piscataqua-Salmon 

Falls watershed, covering parts of southern Maine and 

southeastern New Hampshire, ranks 20th, with 42,427 ha 

(104,842 acres) of private forest expected to shift from 

rural or ex-urban to urban.

Figure 3 depicts the percentage of each watershed 

containing private forest projected to shift from rural 

Figure 1. Percentage of watersheds with private forests 

projected to shift from rural or ex-urban to urban use.

Figure 2. Top 20 watersheds with greatest acreage of private 

forests projected to shift from rural or ex-urban to urban 

use.
740 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to ex-urban. Our definition for “rural” for this map is 

any forest land containing less than 4.9 housing units 

per km2 (12.8 housing units per sq. mi.), as opposed to 

the stated definition of less than 6.2 housing units per 

km2 (16 housing units per sq. mi.). Just over 9 million 

ha (22.5 million acres) of private forest land is expected 

to experience this type of shift. About 20 watersheds 

contain forest projected to experience this shift on over 

10 to 20 percent of their area. These watersheds are 

located in about 12 States in the Northeast and South. 

They include New Hampshire, Vermont, Pennsylvania, 

Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, 

Missouri, and Arkansas.

Results for the top 20 watersheds with the most private 

forest land projected to shift from rural to ex-urban are 

presented in figure 4 and table 2. The top watershed in this 

category is the Little Kanawa watershed in West Virginia, 

with 58,871 ha (145,476 acres) of private forest expected 

to experience this change. This is followed by the Upper 

Roanoke watershed in Virginia with 56,422 ha (139,424 

acres), the Upper Green watershed of Kentucky with 

55,874 ha (138,070 acres), and the Upper Susquehanna 

watershed in New York with 55,792 ha (137,867 acres). 

The Upper Alabama watershed ranks 20th with 42,292 

ha (104,508 acres) projected to experience this change.

A map depicting the percentage of each watershed 

projected to experience either type of shift (from rural 

or ex-urban to urban and/or from rural to ex-urban) is 

presented in figure 5. A total of 17,882,073 ha (44.2 million acres) of private forest land is expected to experience 

Table 1. Top 20 watersheds projected to shift from rural or exurban to urban use.

Watershed rank	 8-digit HUC Identifier	 Hydrologic Unit Name	 Acres

1 01020005 Lower Penobscot 266,006

2 03150104 Etowah 209,866

3 02020006 Middle Hudson 188,880

4 03070101 Upper Oconee 166,084

5 05130205 Lower Cumberland 158,945

6 03030003 Deep 157,342

7 02080106 Pamunkey 156,015

8 01030003 Lower Kennebec 146,437

9 03040201 Lower Pee Dee 145,705

10 03150106 Middle Coosa 138,895

11 02070002 North Branch Potomac 138,829

12 03170005 Lower Leaf 134,499

13 03080103 Lower St. Johns 132,162

14 03140201 Upper Choctawhatchee 127,575

15 03020201 Upper Neuse 124,403

16 03070103 Upper Ocmulgee 120,375

17 03010101 Upper Roanoke 117,686

18 03060104 Broad 110,026

19 05130204 Harpeth 107,026

20 01060003 Piscataqua-Salmon Falls 104,842

Figure 3. Percentage of watershed with private forests projected 

to shift from rural to ex-urban use.

Figure 4. Top 20 watersheds with greatest acreage of private 

forests projected to shift from rural to ex-urban use.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 741

one or both of these shifts by the year 2030 in watersheds 

that meet the forest coverage and ownership criteria. 

About 20 watersheds are projected to experience one or 

both of these changes on private forest covering at least 

20 percent of their areas. Again, these watersheds are 

scattered primarily across the East (particularly across 

the Northeast and Southeast), with some occurring also 

in the northern Midwest, California, and the Pacific 

Northwest.

Discussion

The results of this project indicate that many of 

the private forest lands likely to experience increased 

housing density from 2000 to 2030 are located in the 

eastern United States. This makes sense as a majority of 

our private forests are located in this area. Much of the 

private forest projected to experience change is located 

in watersheds in the southeastern United States. This is 

consistent with the finding by Alig and others (2004) that 

development has been high in the South and will continue 

to be high due to above average population and income 

growth coupled with above average marginal consumption rates of land.

Private forests in certain areas of the Northeast 

(Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, and New York) are 

also projected to experience housing density increases. 

Additional study of the possible causes of this would be 

useful. It may be that housing densities are increasing 

in these areas as a result of second home development 

because of the attractive recreational and aesthetic amenities they provide. A recent study of development in 

the north central United States indicates growth rates in 

attractive rural areas are among the highest and that this 

has major implications for forest ecology and management (Hammer and others 2004).

Although a number of watersheds in the Southwest 

met the selection criteria of forest coverage and private 

ownership, the private forests they contain were not projected to experience significant housing density increases. 

This does not mean that housing development will not 

Figure 5. Percentage of watershed with private forests 

projected to experience increased housing density by 

2030.

Table 2. Top 20 watersheds projected to shift from rural to exurban use.

Watershed rank	 8-digit HUC Identifier	 Hydrologic Unit Name	 Acres

1 05030203 Little Kanawha 145,476

2 03010101 Upper Roanoke 139,424

3 05110001 Upper Green 138,070

4 02050101 Upper Susquehanna 137,867

5 02050106 Upper Susquehanna - Tunkhannock 135,129

6 04030108 Menominee 133,753

7 06040001 Lower Tennessee – Beech 123,869

8 01040002 Lower Androscoggin 118,129

9 05100205 Lower Kentucky 117,822

10 11010014 Little Red 116,940

11 03180001 Upper Pearl 113,179

12 03030003 Deep 112,475

13 05100101 Licking 112,361

14 01080104 Upper Connecticut – Mascoma 109,176

15 03170005 Lower Leaf 108,259

16 02080203 Middle James – Buffalo 107,375

17 02080106 Pamunkey 105,988

18 07070005 Lower Wisconsin 104,958

19 02080207 Appomattox 104,632

20 03150201 Upper Alabama 104,508
742 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

occur in these watersheds or other areas of the Southwest. 

It only means that the development is not occurring on 

private forests that meet the selection criteria.

Private forests in the majority of the western watersheds that met the selection criteria are not projected 

to experience high housing density increases. It may 

be that in some localized areas, private forests will be 

developed, but those areas do not occur in watersheds 

containing at least 10 percent forest cover or where at 

least 50 percent of the forest is private. Private forests in 

a few watersheds in California and northwestern Oregon 

are projected to experience housing density increases. It 

is likely that many of these watersheds show up on our 

map because they will experience some level of housing 

development and because they are fairly small (thus, even 

change on a small amount of land makes them show up 

on the maps showing percent change in a watershed). 

The fact that none of these watersheds show up on either 

“top 20” acreage list indicates that the acreage projected 

to be affected is less than 40,000 ha (approximately 

100,000 acres).

Conclusions

Private forests in watersheds across the eastern United 

States and particularly in the Northeast and Southeast, as 

well as in California and the Pacific Northwest are projected to experience a shift from rural or ex-urban use to 

urban use, or a shift from rural to ex-urban use between 

the years 2000 and 2030. While most watersheds meeting the forest coverage and private ownership criteria 

are projected to experience these types of development 

on less than five percent of their surface area, over 30 

watersheds will experience one of these changes on 10 

to 20 percent of their area. This has implications for the 

condition and management of the private forests projected to be affected and the watersheds in which they 

occur. Increasing housing density in forested areas can be 

associated with decreases in native wildlife populations, 

alterations in forest structure and function, decreases in 

timber production and active forest management, and 

increases in fire risk. Depending upon the location of 

the affected forest, the quality of water run-off could 

also be affected.

Admittedly, this study is but one chapter in the story 

of constant flux experienced by our Nation’s private 

forest lands. The method used focuses on the quantity, 

rather than quality of private forest land in each watershed. Although this type of analysis can be important 

for targeting efforts to conserve functions and values 

bestowed by private forests, it will inevitably disregard 

some forest types, such as riparian areas in the Southwest, 

where quantity does not occur on the same scale as forest 

lands in the East.

While projections of this scope and nature do not 

necessarily provide accurate predictions of the future 

in all parts of the study area, spatial information about 

land use changes resulting from this and similar studies 

is a crucial input for scientists, resource managers, and 

communities in their efforts to plan for future growth and 

implement resource plans and policies. Furthermore, the 

results of this study can be used to identify watersheds 

for possible future research.

Future work in this area should focus on four areas: (1) validation of data identifying watersheds as 

having private forest most likely to experience housing density increases; (2) impacts of various levels 

of housing density on timber, wildlife, water quality, 

and other forest amenities; (3) projected shifts among 

the lower density categories (for example, from 0.5 

to 1.5 housing units per square mile); and (4) a more 

in-depth look at private forests in the West and the 

pressures they face.

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Urbanization on the U.S. landscape: looking ahead in the 

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Jeffrey D. 2003. Land use changes involving forestry in 

the United States: 1952 to 1997, with projections to 2050. 

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744 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Crop Explorer is an Internet web site that provides 

free, easy-to-read crop condition information for major 

agricultural regions in the world. This information is 

heavily used by farmers, agribusiness, traders, researchers, foreign organizations and U.S. federal, state and 

local agencies. At the Production Estimates and Crop 

Assessment Division (PECAD) of the U.S. Department 

of Agriculture (USDA), Foreign Agricultural Service 

(FAS) this information is used for global crop condition 

assessments and estimates of area, yield, and production. 

PECAD produces objective and accurate assessments 

of the global agricultural production outlook and the 

conditions affecting food security. Regional analysts use 

a Geographic Information System (GIS) to collect market intelligence, and forecast reliable global production 

numbers for grains, oil seeds and cotton.

The GIS utilizes several different satellite data sources, 

input databases, climate data, crop models, and data 

extraction routines for yield and area estimates to determine production (production=yield x area) (Tetrault, 

2004). The FAS has a global network of attachés that 

provide on-the-ground reports of observed crop and 

contextual information. Also, the FAS regional analysts 

travel extensively in the countries they cover to more 

fully develop the context and constraints within which 

their assessments are made. The development of the 

interface and underlying structure of this application 

was built upon years of experience from PECAD crop 

analysts. Their knowledge of in-country conditions was 

essential to the creation of the areas of interest known 

as agro-meteorological zones. These zones are unique 

to Crop Explorer and are the basis for spatially representing the global crop condition information. Ancillary 

data from official governmental reports, trade and news 

Monitoring Global Crop Condition Indicators Using a 

Web-Based Visualization Tool

Bob Tetrault, Regional Commodity Analyst, and Bob Baldwin, GIS Specialist, USDA, 

Foreign Agricultural Service, Washington, D.C

Abstract—Global crop condition information for major agricultural regions in the world 

can be monitored using the web-based application called Crop Explorer. With this application, U.S. and international producers, traders, researchers, and the public can 

access remote sensing information used by agricultural economists and scientists who 

predict crop production worldwide. For example, regional droughts or excessively wet 

conditions can be identified in thematic maps by the amount of ground-surface “greenness” depicted by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI).

Crop Explorer automates the processing and extraction of certain agro-meteorological 

indicators from the source data. Information is presented using thematic maps and 

time series charts for weather, crop model, soil moisture and vegetation indices. These 

indicators—from weather and satellite data—are defined by crop type, crop region 

(sub-national), and season. The data visualization products are updated every ten days. 

The site includes more than 11,800 charts and maps. Partnerships with NASA provide 

near real-time satellite imagery (MODIS Rapid Response) and reservoir height estimates. 

MODIS satellite imagery is acquired twice a day and is posted on the site approximately 

six hours after acquisition. Reservoir height estimates are updated every 10 days and 

are derived from satellite data (TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1).

The Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of USDA’s Foreign 

Agricultural Service (USDA/FAS) developed the site. PECAD is responsible for global 

crop condition assessments and estimates of area, yield, and production for grains, 

oilseeds, and cotton. The primary mission of PECAD is to produce the most objective 

and accurate assessment of the global agricultural production outlook and the conditions affecting food security in the world. Regional analysts use Geographic Information 

System (GIS) and web-based tools—such as Crop Explorer—to analyze crops, weather, 

and satellite data.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 745

sources play a significant role in interpreting the data. 

Final production estimates are approved by the USDA 

World Agricultural Outlook Board and published on the 

10th day of each month. The methodology relies on an 

all source convergence of evidence. The final production 

estimates are used in a variety of ways:

Official USDA statistics

Principle Federal Economic Indicators

Crop conditions and early warning alerts

Agricultural monitoring and food security

Foreign aid assessments for food import needs

Disaster monitoring and relief efforts related to food 

aid

Commercial market trends and analysis

Trade policy and exporter assistance

The web site automates the processing and extraction 

of specific crop condition indicators from an immense 

amount of agriculture data stored on PECAD’s database 

servers. Baseline data sets include atmospheric data 

and satellite imagery. The near real-time estimates of 

meteorological indicators, such as precipitation and soil 

moisture, are used by agricultural economists and scientists to forecast crop production worldwide.

Crop Condition Monitoring

PECAD relies on remote sensing data from satellite 

sensors (fig. 1) as an important source of data for its GIS. 

Selected data sets provide daily, weekly, and targeted 

coverage with resolutions ranging from 1km to less than 

1m. The data is stored on a terabyte server accessible to 

each analyst workstation. The most common data formats 

used operationally with ArcGIS at PECAD are TIFF and 

compressed MrSID images.

The Crop Condition Data Retrieval and Evaluation 

database (CADRE) is the main decision support tool 

used in the GIS by PECAD analysts. CADRE is a global 

grid-based, geospatial database that stores daily, monthly, 

and decadal (10-day) data. The sources for this data are 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

• the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) and the World 

Meteorological Organization (WMO). PECAD takes this 

source data and models precipitation, temperature, soil 

moisture and crop stages. To measure vegetative vigor, 

PECAD calculates vegetation index numbers (VINs) 

from satellite derived data. The data is imported into 1/8 

degree mesh grid cells (fig. 2) and can be categorized 

by:

Time-series Data Sets

Daily agro-meteorological data derived from station 

and satellite data include precipitation; min and max 

temperatures; snow depth; solar and longwave radiation; potential and actual evapo-transpiration. Daily and 

decadal VINs derived from Local Area Coverage (LAC), 

approx 1.1-km pixels and Global Area Coverage (GAC), 

approx 8-km pixels from the NOAA-AVHRR satellite 

series (Reynolds, 2001).

Normal Baseline Data Sets

Normal precipitation, temperature, potential evaporation, and elevation values; soil-water holding capacity 

based upon the United Nations Food and Agriculture 

Organization’s (FAO) Digital Soil Map of the World at 

1:5M scale; decadal VIN normals or averages for the 

GAC data set.

Crop Information and Models

Crop type and average start of season; average 

yield and area planted; percent crop production within 

a country; two-layer soil moisture algorithm; crop 

calendars based on growing-degree days; crop stress 

or alarm models for corn and wheat based on soil 

moisture and temperature thresholds; crop water production functions to estimate relative yield reductions 

(yield reduction models); and crop stage models by 

Ritchie (1991).

Figure 1. False color Landsat TM image in Central France 

taken on May 29, 2003. Red colors indicate vegetation.

Figure 2. Polygons outlined in red are selected AFWA grid-cells 

for crop producing region in Brazil. The average grid-cell 

size is 40 km.
746 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The GIS is essential in managing the geospatial data 

from CADRE and the various other data sources used 

at PECAD. Much of the baseline data sets are stored as 

shapefiles (fig. 3) on PECAD servers. ArcMap is used to 

geographically combine the varied data sets in a visual 

assessment to determine a ‘convergence of evidence’ 

analysis. Commodity production is then estimated from 

the yield and area parameterization. Although each analyst has a disparate array of region specific data sources 

and crop growth models at their disposal, PECAD’s GIS 

allows analysts to spend less time on repetitive analysis 

tasks and more time on utilizing all available data for 

the monthly crop production assessments. ArcIMS is 

being used by PECAD to automate these tasks and make 

data model results and ancillary data more accessible. 

Dynamic datasets for temperature, precipitation, soil 

moisture, and snow cover are updated every 10 days 

(decadal). Global base maps for land cover, agricultural 

regions, weather stations and grids are updated as needed. 

There are currently fourteen ArcIMS Image Services for 

global crop condition data on the USDA-FAS server. 

These are all accessible through the Geography Network 

(www.geographynetwork.com).

The Internet web mapping application (fig. 4) uses 

Cold Fusion, Java, ArcIMS, SQL Server, and ArcSDE 

to manage and store the geospatial data. ArcSDE relationships are set up between PECAD “regions” and the 

various feature classes used by the maps (e.g. rivers, 

administrative boundaries, etc.). The Crop Explorer 

ArcIMS MapService is built using these same ArcSDE 

features. During a map generation request, the grid-cell 

layer feature class is joined to the appropriate attribute 

data such as precipitation, soil moisture, or temperature. 

Java is used to build the necessary AXL code to make 

the request to ArcIMS. Cold Fusion manages the map 

display in the web browser.

As a result, for every major crop growing region in 

the world, thematic maps are produced (fig. 5) that depict 

fourteen distinct data types derived from baseline datasets 

about precipitation, temperature, soil moisture and snow 

cover. Time-series charts depict growing season data 

about these same data types for specific agro-meteorological zones. Regional crop calendars and crop area 

maps are also available for many of the regions. 

The visual display (fig. 6) of the amount of ground-surface “greenness” as depicted by the measure of vegetative 

vigor is accomplished by using Normalized Difference 

Vegetation Index (NDVI) products from several satellite 

imagery sources. Products from the vegetation indices 

provide additional resources for crop condition information on the web site.

Regional droughts or excessively wet conditions can 

be easily identified using these products. Crop Explorer 

displays three thematic maps created from the SPOTVEG data:

1) Current 10-day conditions, 2) Departure from 

4 year average and 3) Departure from last year. The 

data is provided to the National Aeronautics and Space 

Administration (NASA) by Spot Image Corporation on 

behalf of USDA-FAS-PECAD. NASA in turn performs 

a variety of processing on the imagery and provides 

PECAD with decadal (every 10 days) global Spot 

mosaics which include 3 mosaic-ed imagery bands, a 

mosaic-ed NDVI band, a status map, as well as other data 

(Kittel, 2003). Partnerships between USDA and NASA 

have also made possible the recent addition of data from 

the MODIS, TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 satellites.

MODIS images from the Rapid Response system 

are added twice a day and posted on the web site 

approximately six hours after acquisition for each agricultural region. Mosaic images were created by the 

NASA MODIS Rapid Response System team to overlap 

agricultural regions identified by USDA-FAS-PECAD. 

Figure 3. ArcMap project depicting global crop land and crop 

intensity distribution.

Figure 4. Crop Explorer – www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 747

New MODIS mosaics (fig. 7) are produced daily for each 

agricultural region in false color, true color and NDVI 

from the Terra and Aqua satellites at 1km, 500m and 

250m resolution. The entire archive can be browsed and 

images can by selected for downloading.

Since the beginning of 2004, NASA has supplied the 

USDA with near-real time data on lake and reservoir 

heights from around the world. Lake and reservoir surface elevation maps are produced via a 

semi-automated process and updated 

in Crop Explorer’s Global Reservoir 

Monitoring database every 7-10 days. 

Time series charts of the lake height 

variations are expected to be accurate 

to better than 10cm rms. Analysts who 

forecast crop production, scientists, incountry water and irrigation managers, 

those involved in fishing industries, 

and the general public have all been 

making use of the web site. NASA and 

the French space agency Le Centre National d’Etudes 

Spatiales (CNES) teamed up to design, build and launch 

the TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason-1 satellites.

These satellites were designed to study many aspects 

of the ocean. The TOPEX/Poseidon satellite, for example, 

orbits at a height of 1336 kilometers (830 miles) above 

Earth, and can measure the height of the ocean surface 

directly underneath the satellite with an accuracy of 4-5 

centimeters (better than 2 inches) (Ramanujan, 2004). 

Jason-1 and TOPEX/Poseidon cover the global oceans 

every 10 days. With these capabilities, this technology 

is surprisingly valuable for looking at larger areas of 

inland water (fig. 8).

PECAD regularly uses computer models that simulate agricultural production based on inputs that include 

weather information. But in irrigated areas that are not 

rain fed, these methods are limited. For irrigated areas, 

a determination of how much water is actually stored, 

after seasonal precipitation passes is required. The data 

from the Global Lake and Reservoir database can be used 

for this purpose. This type of information is especially 

important for food aid partners, who must budget ahead 

for how much and where food aid is distributed.

Figure 8. Lake Michigan data from the Global Lake and Reservoir database on the 

Crop Explorer web site.

Figure 5. ArcIMS generated map of Percent Soil Moisture from 

October 1-10, 2003 in Brazil. Each 40km grid cell represents 

a percent soil moisture value. A relationship class in ArcSDE 

joins the attribute data (soil moisture) at the grid cell level 

to the region layer for Brazil.

Figure 6. SPOT-VEG NDVI map of Africa for April 1-10, 

2003.

Figure 7. Three examples of the MODIS Terra satellite image 

of Mozambique on 8/31/2004 : 1)False color image with 

bands 7,2,1 (Short Wave Infrared, Near-Infrared, Red); 2) 

True Color; 3) NDVI. All at 1km resolution.
748 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Summary

The Crop Explorer web site is a primary data category 

for Agriculture and Farming in two government information portals: 1) the Geospatial One-Stop (http://www.

geodata.gov/gos) e-gov initiative and 2) NASA’s Global 

Change Master Directory (http://gcmd.gsfc.nasa.gov/) 

for earth science and data services. Both of these portals 

are nodes of the Federal Geographic Data Committee 

(FGDC) Clearinghouse for metadata. Live data and 

maps from the Crop Explorer ArcIMS services are also 

directly linked through the Geography Network (www.

geographynetwork.com).

Crop Explorer provides a specialized service to its customers with timely, accurate crop condition information 

on a global scale. Partnerships with other organizations 

such as NASA have introduced near real-time satellite 

imagery and derived products specifically for agriculture analysis. Region and country-specific linkages to 

these external data sources is inherent in its geospatial 

design. This relationship has resulted in new and innovative products that can be shared by NASA and USDA 

customers.

References

Kittel, Drew. 2003. SpotVeg Processing - Overview of the 

operational SpotVeg processing performed at FAS/PECAD. 

RS Information Systems Tech Report. June, 2003.

Ramanujan, Krishna 2004. NASA Satellites Allow USDA to 

See World’s Lakes Rise and Fall. Top Story, NASA Goddard 

Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD. http://www.gsfc.nasa.

gov/topstory/2004/0826reservoirs.html. August 27, 2004.

Reynolds, Curt. 2001. Input Data Sources, Climate Normals, 

Crop Models, and Data Extraction Routines Utilized by 

PECAD. Submitted to the Third International Conference 

on Geospatial Information in Agriculture and Forestry, 

Denver, Colorado, November 5-7, 2001.

Tetrault, Bob; 2004. Crop Explorer Market Analysis. USDAFAS-CMP-PECAD, Washington, DC. February, 2004.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 749

Technology Innovations and 

Applications
750 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Most forms of human interaction with the natural 

environment are increasingly challenged by the growing 

complexity of systems interdependence (for example, 

ecological, social, economic, cultural) at multiple geographical scales. Because human activities and impacts 

transcend geopolitical boundaries (for example, nations, 

states, counties, property rights), orthodox distinctions 

between matters of individual, local, regional, national, 

and global significance are taking a new direction, one 

that is guided by sustainability principles that cut across 

natural and human systems. While a variety of conceptual 

sustainability views have gained worldwide political 

support, as indicated by the proliferation of accords between and among national governments, making them 

operational has been and will be one of the most serious 

institutional challenges in the twenty first century.

Information and knowledge is central to understanding 

the multi-relational physical nature of sustainability. No 

complete and uncompromising theory about sustainability, whether scientifically-based or not, exists and will 

ever be proposed to the scrutiny of the human world. 

What one knows about sustainability is also a multi-relational process where cultural contexts condition to a large 

extent what one perceives, recognizes, sees, measures, 

and understands. Cultural contexts by themselves are also 

multi-relational processes. Recognizing their uniqueness 

is central to how they measure, understand, improve, 

and maintain the sustainability of ecological, economic, 

social, cultural, and political systems. There is no such 

thing as one way road towards sustainability science and 

its supporting research and monitoring processes.

When formulating a conceptual approach to monitoring and assessment one has to take into account the 

multi-relational reality of nature in space and time. For 

example, nowhere and at no time is what we can or can 

not recognize and measure exactly the same; nothing 

remains the same as it was originally created. Material 

(for example, objects, structures, things) and non-material things (for example, energy, thoughts, decisions, 

knowledge, etc.) are under flux, at different dynamics, 

therefore taking place at different locations and times, 

and at distinctive spatial and temporal resolutions. Life 

forms (for example, micro-organisms, plants and animals, populations, communities, landscapes, ecosystems, 

etc.), their attributes and health, and all other components 

(for example, soils, landforms, etc.) and processes (for 

example, water, climate, fire, etc.) of their physical environment are subject to the uncertainty of how causal 

forces (potential energies) converge in space and time. 

A Conceptual View for Advancing Monitoring and 

Assessment of Land Resources in the Mexican State of 

Jalisco

Celedonio Aguirre-Bravo, Research Coordinator for the Americas, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—This paper addresses key elements of a conceptual view for advancing monitoring and a variety of applications to land resources and environmental management 

in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Fundamental to this conceptual view is what we know 

about the structure and functioning of nature: the spatial and temporal dynamics of 

processes (for example, objects, outcomes), the multirelational matrix of cause-effect 

relationships, the uncertainty of location and duration of outcomes, and the power of 

human intelligence that can alter the structure of order in nature. Because knowledge 

is constantly evolving, we discuss why a new vision of monitoring is needed and how 

to implement it so through the appropriate use of changing technologies. Articulation 

of this evolving vision in order to make it operational across the actors and players of 

the sustainability equation is perhaps the most defining challenge that individuals and 

institutions face now and in the years to come. The Jalisco Monitoring Pilot Project, 

an ongoing process of intellectual discovery for practical applications, has provided 

the fertile ground and multidisciplinary environment for structuring and advancing 

this conceptual multirelational view of monitoring and assessment of ecological and 

economic systems.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 751

Human processes, whatever their nature (for example, 

government, policy, the economy, social, educational, 

cultural, cities, corporations, individuals, etc.), no matter 

the geography of their location, they are also subject to 

the same principles and laws of nature.

Given the multi-relational nature of the world we inhabit we can expect a myriad of responses with respect 

to questions of monitoring and assessment of ecological 

and economic systems. Each response will be different in 

terms of perceiving, recognizing, measuring, assessing, 

and understanding the causal structure of problems and 

issues and the multi-relational dimension of their nature. 

For example, what is the current extent and condition of 

land resources, particularly forests and agricultural lands? 

Were the question asked by a government institution, it 

would generate a chain reaction of response processes 

across the hierarchies of the human dimension. Few will 

be interested in listening to the response of a farmer who 

lives in the remote Sierra Madre Occidental in Mexico. 

How that person perceives the question would be different from an intellectual in Mexico City, or from a German 

Green Peace activist. Scientists, particularly statisticians, 

may never agree on how best to monitor and assess what 

the question implies. However, they are expected to 

reach a consensus about a sampling strategy. In a multirelational world, where the potential becomes the real, 

the design of monitoring and assessment programs must 

always take into account the probabilistic framework of 

how events and processes in nature occur in the dynamic 

matrix of space and time.

The success of monitoring and assessment programs 

will be determined in terms of their dynamic performance 

as to how significant and meaningful their outputs are to 

answer, describe, and explain the multi-relational nature 

of the question’s object of study, but most importantly, the 

probabilities and uncertainties associated to their spatial 

and temporal dynamics. Global estimates to address 

these questions are useful, but they are powerless when 

accurate spatial and temporal information is needed to 

address local sustainability problems and issues, at fine 

resolution levels. This paper addresses these and other 

institutional challenges encountered while formulating a 

conceptual framework for inventorying and monitoring 

the land resources of the state of Jalisco in Mexico.

Why a New Vision

It is in the nature of the multi-relational world we live 

in that nothing we do will ever be the same. Each time 

a knowledge quantum leap takes place it has served the 

purpose of its time. Creativity process then takes care 

of evolving that knowledge towards higher levels of 

enlightenment so that we can understand its dynamic 

multi-relational nature. In a way, knowledge is the past, 

while new discoveries are the present, thereby creating 

new dynamic conditions for exploring and understanding 

the future. Decades ago, for example, there was a sort of 

a revolution in the scientific and technical domains of 

agriculture, forestry, natural resources, and the environment. New sampling and statistical analysis methods 

and approaches for inventorying and monitoring forest 

and natural resources came to be and served well the 

needs and challenges of their time. In today’s world, 

that knowledge and technology represents the past; it is 

powerless to address the multi-relational nature of needs 

and challenges of today and future generations.

Change has brought us to a new dynamic condition so 

that institutions and people can begin to address complex 

needs and challenges of their time. Nature in the myriad 

forms of how it comes to be and perceived it is never the 

same. Welcome to the “Knowledge Age Era,” the time 

of knowledge workers, where more and more people are 

being enabled to understand the complexity of living in 

a dynamic multi-relational world of physical processes, 

the foundation of systems sustainability, whether they 

are ecological, economic, social, cultural, political, unified, or nondenominational. It is at the intersection of 

these systems, in each spatial and temporal point of the 

world geometric grid, where processes of multi-relational 

nature converge to bring about what we can perceive 

and recognize (for example, things, objects, structures, 

information, knowledge), and perhaps measure, the 

ultimate condition where information and knowledge 

exists in dynamic unified form. When we function at 

this level of knowledge resolution, which is the fertile 

ground for sustainability science and policy, then the 

voids that separate facts and actions dissolve, and the 

“what is” can then be perceived, recognized, measured, 

improved, maintained, and sustained within the changing 

framework of their spatial and temporal dynamics. From 

this dynamic multi-relational vision of the world, a seamless web of cause-effect relationships ─and options for 

investigating and acting upon them─ become clearer for 

advancing research, monitoring and assessment, as well 

as policy and decision making for sustainability.

How this vision is articulated to advance monitoring 

and assessment of land resources in the Mexican state 

of Jalisco will significantly impact the scientific and 

economic utility of products and outcomes to support 

policy, planning, and decision making processes. The 

vision implies that fundamental changes have to take 

place in the current technical and scientific establishment 

that is responsible for how monitoring and assessment 

programs are designed and carried out. Important issues and considerations to take into account include the 
752 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

following: (1) things in nature are the resulting events 

of convergent multi-relational processes; (2) things in 

nature have their own spatial and temporal dynamic 

framework; and (3) things in nature have a probabilistic 

pattern of spatial and temporal distribution. Everything 

that has “matter matters massively (Schearer 2004)” as 

far as these considerations for advancing monitoring and 

assessment strategies and programs.

Technology to Make it So

Knowledge has become the most fundamental organizing principle driving technological progress into the 

21st century. New ways of generating, presenting, and 

distributing information and knowledge to institutions and 

people are significantly changing how we learn, create, 

plan, decide, work, and live. Today, we live in a multi-relational world that is being rapidly transformed by advances 

in high-speed computing, communications, and information technologies. Better and more powerful technologies 

are connecting people-to-people, scientist-to-scientist, 

resource manager-to-scientist, people-to-digital libraries 

and instruments, and people-to-institutions and markets around the world. In this technological revolution, 

connectivity and networking have become common denominators of ongoing multi-relational processes, at all 

geographical scales. Now the human dimension is like a 

global virtual mind that is empowering people throughout 

the world to become effective stakeholders in the pursuit 

of knowledge for multiple applications.

What is happening today is just a glimmer of the rich 

possibilities of the Knowledge Age that is emerging. 

Quantum leaps in computational power, connectivity, 

and user-friendly technologies to improve learning and 

creativity processes are now part of our multi-relational 

reality. Many of these astonishing developments will 

experience significant improvements in the near future. 

In many ways, they are significantly enhancing our 

ability to explore, discover, collect, analyze, represent, 

transmit, and apply information, thereby improving the 

way we generate knowledge for planning, decision making, scientific research, engineering, education, business, 

management, and policy making. The common goal that 

seems to fuel this technological explosion is to create 

networked systems that can make all kinds of knowledge 

available to everyone, located anywhere, at any time. As 

this emerging paradigm continues to unfold, it becomes 

clear that its outputs could become powerful multipliers 

of progress in a wide range of scientific, educational, 

social, and economic endeavors.

Driven by these transformations, people and institutions around the world are continuously reassessing 

and redirecting their programs and capabilities. Central 

to these processes is how to handle and interpret the 

enormous amounts of data and information that accumulate at increasing rates, and how to transform them 

into knowledge that is meaningful to users spatially. 

Knowledge that has no connection to location and context 

has limited value to people and society. However, the 

magnitude of these challenges pales in comparison to the 

socioeconomic and cultural challenge of transforming 

more and more people around the world into Knowledge 

Workers. New strategies for representing and distributing 

spatial knowledge are not only essential for advancing 

human intellectual progress, but also for confronting 

complex economic and environmental sustainability 

problems. Enabling people and institutions to be effective 

stakeholders through the power of spatial and temporal 

knowledge is the greatest sustainability challenge facing 

institutions in the 21st century.

Harnessing the power of the Knowledge Age is essential for ensuring the well being of future generations. 

The great technological transformations of this new 

era are now making it possible to represent knowledge 

within a geo-spatially explicit framework, at any spatial and temporal scale, and to distribute it to society 

throughout the world via a variety of electronic means. 

Spurred by this technological evolution, the development of Geo-Spatially Explicit Knowledge (GSK) may 

be the most defining technological innovation of the 

early 21st century. Potential uses and applications of 

GSK are seemingly endless. The growth in the content, 

capacity, connectivity, and flexibility of technologies to 

represent and communicate GSK is so powerful that it is 

dramatically reshaping relationships among people and 

organizations, and quickly transforming our processes 

of discovery, learning, exploration, cooperation, and 

communication. Realizing this potential is an essential 

response to a 21st century that is being shaped by science 

and rapidly changing technologies.

How to Articulate this Vision

Today, because we know more about the workings of 

the human mind and the nature of our multi-relational 

world, have the technological capabilities to collect and 

generate tremendous amounts of spatial and temporal 

data, and have learned the lessons of failed scientific 

and technical paradigms, there is a growing understanding that there exists an opportunity to simultaneously 

improve the human condition and the sustainability of 

ecological systems.

Through modern psychology, we have gained a greater 

understanding of how the human brain works and how 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 753

information is received, processed, and retained. It is 

known that people have the ability to absorb billions of 

bits of information instantly. When the brain receives 

information that is in an isolated form and disconnected 

from a larger multi-relational context, its significance is 

analogous to that of a single piece of a jigsaw puzzle. 

Any one piece has very little meaning in and of itself. 

However, when each of the individual pieces of the 

puzzle is seen in the context of the adjacent pieces, a 

picture begins to form which is recognizable and has 

meaning. Historical means of information transfer have 

presented information as an individual puzzle. Future 

methods and approaches will have to present the information in a complete contextual, multi-relational, and 

integrated framework.

Spatially explicit model representations of the multirelational nature of things and processes are analogous 

to a time series of high resolution digital pictures taken 

of a forest site. As pictures, spatial models are means to 

aid and improve how people best acquire, retain, analyze, synthesize, and utilize geo-spatial information for 

multiple applications. Fundamental to articulating this 

conceptual view is the consideration of the value of any 

bit of information in its spatial and temporal multi-relational contextual location. Each information bit takes on 

greater meaning when it can be viewed in relation to its 

position in space and time relative to neighboring bits. 

Higher utility is achieved when it is possible to view the 

change of each bit as a function of time or other relational 

variable. Technological advances in geo-spatial sciences provide us with a flexible and adaptable approach 

to acquire, analyze, model, visualize, and disseminate 

spatially- and temporally-explicit information and knowledge to wider audiences quickly and efficiently.

A fundamental revolution is taking place in the geospatial sciences with tremendous implications in fields 

as diverse as those related to sustainability science and 

applications. Historically, for example, modern medicine 

has taken the approach that people are generic and that 

those with similar conditions or ailments constitute a 

common human landscape to be prescribed similar medicines and/or treatments. Under the traditional paradigm, 

the human population is treated homogeneously without regard for the unique attributes of each individual. 

Visionaries see the day when medicines and prescriptive 

treatments will be developed on a person-by-person basis 

(in the language of geo-spatial sciences, on a pixel-bypixel basis). In other words, the correct prescription for 

a person with a certain ailment will be tailored to reflect 

the unique genetic, chemical, and other multi-relational 

features of that individual. The logical extension of this 

thinking is expected to be the anticipation and treatment 

of medical problems well in advance of their arrival. For 

example, a 30 year old person will be treated with an 

individually designed medicine for a cancer that has not 

yet appeared but will develop at about age 50 and be fatal 

to the person at about age 60. Analogous thinking can 

be applied to the design of new geo-spatially monitoring 

strategies for the assessment of ecological and economic 

systems sustainability.

Historically, research and monitoring have been 

conducted on a landscape type and as a result vast generalities were identified that were then applied to all other 

similar landscapes. However, in this model, little or no 

consideration was made of the multi-relational nature of 

the landscape (for example, climate, soil chemistry, air 

quality, human impact, hydrology, etc.) and its temporal and spatial dynamics. A more enlightened approach 

to sustainability science will have to evaluate natural 

systems on a pixel-by-pixel basis for their unique social 

and environmental circumstances. Then, unique management prescriptions can be made to reflect both societal 

and environmental needs. With the advent of geo-spatial 

sciences, a variety of spatial and temporal information 

layers are able to be developed which allow for the accounting of the myriad relational variables that influence 

the expected outputs in each point (pixel) of the spacetime matrix of a given geographical area. As such, land 

resource management prescriptions can be made which 

reflect the multi-relational nature of a landscape in the 

same way that future medicines will reflect the unique 

traits of a person.

Conclusion

It is now clear to a growing number of people throughout the world that a new paradigm in sustainability 

science is emerging. At the center of this new way of 

thinking is how research and monitoring methods need 

to be adapted to the technical and scientific challenges 

of providing the appropriate data and information to 

advance the understanding of ecological and economic 

sustainability and its spatial and temporal dynamics, at 

multiple resolution levels. No longer will it be satisfactory to disseminate information and knowledge to 

stakeholders in forms that are obscure and interpretable 

only to those familiar with the technical or scientific arcana. Disappearing are the days when it was acceptable 

to make policy and management decisions derived solely 

from general information that is not multi-relational to a 

particular geographical landscape.

In the 21st century, the geo-spatial knowledge era of 

sustainability science, it will be necessary to ask what 

is the solution to the problem that is found on a particular landscape having a certain set of time-dependent 
754 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

multi-relational processes and features, and define the 

solution at a resolution of one pixel (regardless of the 

pixel size). Solutions of this type will not result from traditional monitoring and assessment approaches that were 

developed and used throughout most of the 20th century. 

Though useful, it is now part of the past. Furthermore, 

solutions of this type will not be developed by people who 

are trained in a certain discipline and lack the ability to 

work with people who can utilize the entire spectrum of 

analytical tools and procedures that constitute the body of 

knowledge of modern geo-spatial sciences. Ernst Mach’s 

legacy (Malin 2001), “it is theory which decides what 

we can observe,” has no place in this new paradigm that 

fosters freedom from the known. The most successful 

problem solvers in the 21st century will be those who 

can think multi-relationally and free themselves from 

the mental conditioning of theories, methods, and technologies. Individuals who have this mental potential can 

easily work with interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary 

teams that can apply the tools of geo-spatial sciences in 

an integrated, multi-relational, cohesive, unconditioned, 

and seamless fashion to the solution of unique sustainability problems.

References

Malin, Shimon. 2001. Natures Love to Hide. Quantum Physics 

and the Nature of Reality, a Western Perspective. Oxford 

University Press.

Bush, David E. and J.C. Trexler. 2003. Monitoring Ecosystems. 

Interdisciplinary Approaches for Evaluating Ecoregional 

Initiatives. Island Press.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 755

Introduction

Throughout the 20th century, a set of scientific and technological developments converged to bring about a new 

and evolving view of the relationship between the natural 

environment and human society. For many years, extreme 

views regarding this relationship, advocating either preservation of the environment at the expense of social and 

economic progress or social and economic development 

without regard to environmental health, dominated the 

discussion with each side demonstrating little tolerance 

for the other opinion. Today, because we know more about 

the workings of the human mind, have the technological 

capabilities to collect tremendous amounts of spatial 

and temporal data, and have learned the lessons of failed 

paradigms concerning ecosystem resource management, 

there is a growing belief that there exists an opportunity 

to simultaneously improve the human condition (for example, economically, socially, environmentally, etc.) and 

the sustainability of ecosystems.

Through modern psychology, we have gained a greater 

understanding of how the human brain works and how 

information is received, processed, and retained. It is 

known that people have the ability to absorb billions of 

bits of information instantly. When the brain receives 

information that is in an isolated form and disconnected 

from a larger context, its significance is analogous to 

that of a single piece of a jigsaw puzzle. Any one piece 

has very little meaning in and of itself. However, when 

each of the individual pieces of the puzzle is seen in the 

context of the adjacent pieces, a picture begins to form 

which is recognizable and has meaning. Historical means 

of information transfer have gathered and presented 

information as individual puzzle. Future methods will 

have to present the information in a complete contextual 

and integrated framework.

A new paradigm in information technology is forming that recognizes how people best acquire, retain, and 

utilize information. Fundamental to this paradigm is the 

consideration of the value of any bit of information in its 

spatial and temporal context. Each information bit takes 

on greater meaning when it can be viewed in relation 

to its position in space and time relative to neighboring 

bits. Furthermore, a higher utility is achieved when it 

is possible to view the change of each bit as a function 

of time or other variable. Technological advances in 

geo-spatial sciences provide us with a flexible and adaptable 

Learning Center for Advancing Natural Resources and 

Environmental Sustainability in the Mexican State of 

Jalisco

Celedonio Aguirre-Bravo, Research Coordinator for the Americas, Rocky Mountain 

Research Station, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO

Hans Schreuder, retired Mathematical Statistician, USDA Forest Service, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—This paper addresses the need and opportunity for creating a learning center 

for advancing the monitoring and assessment of ecosystems resources and their sustainability in the Mexican state of Jalisco. It is an initiative that responds to the growing needs 

of a more sophisticated world in which knowledge is the tool for creating social and 

environmental progress and information is the key that unleashes this power. One of the 

goals of governments in this “Knowledge Age Era” is to create an environment in which 

ecosystem resources can be managed and utilized in a fashion that simultaneously allows 

societies to meet their needs, economies to grow, and the ecosystem resources to be 

sustained for future generations. It is among the most pressing demands of science and 

technology in the 21st century. The main actors and players of these evolving processes 

advocate the empowerment of people to make management and utilization decisions as 

the most rational approach to achieving profitable and sustainable ecosystems. However, 

to do this, a drastic change to information- and knowledge-based technologies will be 

needed as the new paradigm will have to be adopted on a large scale. At the heart of 

these transformations is the generation of data, information, and synthesis based on geospatially explicit frameworks that are scientifically credible and technically defensible. 

Key strategic components of this initiative are discussed in this paper.
756 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

approach to acquire, analyze, visualize, and disseminate 

spatially- and temporally-explicit information and knowledge to wider audiences quickly and efficiently.

For this information to have the greatest social utility, it is imperative to have a firm grasp of the natural 

processes that support environmental sustainability; the 

social, economic, and other factors that promote social 

growth; and their interactions. Until fairly recently, there 

was very little opportunity to consider these issues in the 

context of time and geographic location. Today, with the 

use of geo-spatial technologies that involve space and 

aerial photogrammetry, global positioning, information 

management, spatial analysis, and statistical procedures, 

Bayesian statistical decision making methods, communications, and innovations in computer and peripheral 

equipment, the ability exists to examine a wide range 

of environmental, social, and economic issues and incorporate their spatial and temporal interactions on a 

pixel-by-pixel basis. As such, the tools are becoming 

increasingly available to make more intelligent decisions 

regarding ecosystem resources sustainability and management. Furthermore, complimentary innovations in 

information and communication technologies, that when 

combined with geo-spatial technologies, are making it 

increasingly possible to get high-quality, spatially-explicit information and knowledge into the hands of a 

wide range of decision makers (for example, agencies, 

governments, scientists, industrialists, land managers, 

farmers, educators, etc.).

People throughout the world are realizing that in order 

to achieve both a healthy and vital environment for this 

and future generations and create a thriving and sustainable ecosystem resources-based economy which will 

provide numerous social benefits, it is imperative that a 

framework be put in place that will empower people with 

high-quality, temporally- and spatially-explicit information and knowledge of high social and scientific utility. 

Furthermore, this information and knowledge must be 

available to all ecosystem resource stakeholders. To 

achieve the desired goals, an infrastructure, both human 

and physical, must exist to integrate the entire spectrum 

of disparate, but related, sciences and technologies 

into a cohesive and seamless system of data collection, 

storage, and management; analysis; visualization; and 

dissemination.

This initiative, a learning center for advancing the 

monitoring and assessment of ecosystems resources and 

their sustainability, describes the vision of a strategy 

designed to support the creation of this center in a new 

and innovative fashion which involves the principles 

associated with the integration of an array of scientific 

and technical disciplines related to spatial estimation and 

modeling at multiple scales and resolution levels.

Vision

Through this Center, the vision is to develop the 

human and physical infrastructure necessary to implement 21st century capabilities in the field of integrated 

geo-spatial sciences and modeling to enable individuals, 

agencies, organizations, communities, governments, and 

other entities to effectively inventory, monitor, assess, 

and manage their ecosystem resources in a scientific credible and technically defensible manner, and at multiple 

temporal and spatial resolution levels.

Mission

In pursuit of that vision, the mission of the Center is 

to be an instrument which fosters a climate of intellectual 

discovery and growth in the subject areas and applications related to monitoring and assessment of ecosystem 

resources and their sustainability, and more importantly, 

instills the spirit of an integrated approach to problem 

solving that recognizes the value of each scientific and 

technical discipline and their interrelations.

Through this mission, the Center will contribute to:

Developing new knowledge and applications through 

the interaction of professionals involved with environmental, social, and economic issues through 

technology transfer and development projects.

Instructing the experts who will train a variety of technicians in the applied components of monitoring and 

assessment in Jalisco or institution of the individuals 

involved in this process.

Facilitating the creation of the technical capabilities 

for acquiring and geo-referencing field and remotely 

sensed data; transforming this data into useful, precise, 

and accurate geo-spatial information and knowledge; 

and disseminating that product through visualization 

to desired locations.

Forming an “Inventory and Monitoring Network” that 

will close the gap between the demand for and supply 

of geo-spatial information and knowledge and between 

the prevailing problems and potential solutions.

Goal

The goal of the Center is to fulfill the mission through 

a strategy that incorporates education, research, training, 

and infrastructure development to enable a variety of 

ecosystem resource-related institutions, individuals, organizations, communities, governments, and other entities to 

make wise managerial and utilization decisions regarding 

monitoring and assessment, using the tools and critical 

•

•

•

•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 757

thinking associated with spatial modeling and representation of the information resulting from these processes. As a 

growing assortment of highly-sophisticated, user-friendly 

technologies become available to a diverse cadre of ecosystem resource stakeholders, a physical infrastructure 

will grow which will allow information and knowledge 

with high social utility to be delivered in an efficient, visual 

form to the intended audience.

Objectives

To achieve the desired goals and guide the investments in this Center, the following specific objectives 

will be achieved:

Create the next generation of human infrastructure 

(through education, training, and other outreach) that 

will have the scientific and technical expertise to use 

knowledge and technologies in an integrated fashion to 

acquire, geo-reference, and analyze geo-spatial data; synthesize the data into scientifically-credible, geo-spatial 

information and knowledge that is technically defensible 

and of high social and economic utility; and visualize and 

disseminate the results to the user groups.

Develop a set of integrated monitoring and assessment technologies through a comprehensive program of 

applied research that for the most part will be associated 

with experts from universities and result in the development of a broad spectrum of application tools.

Support the development and organization of a 

geo-spatially-based infrastructure for monitoring and 

assessment (both physical and human) through which 

scientific and technological expertise can flow on a 

variety of projects to be conducted under the auspices 

of sponsoring and partner institutions.

Facilitate the formulation and implementation of an 

Internet-based expert system to structure, manage, and 

communicate monitoring and assessment syntheses and 

their application for use in decision-making and planning for sustainable ecosystem resource management 

and utilization.

Program Design

The program activities of the Center must be designed 

to enhance the technical capabilities of the participating 

institutions and organizations. It is expected that some 

of the clients involved in the program will (in time) 

become self-sufficient with respect to sustaining their 

own human and physical infrastructure. Others may 

never have in-house training and research capabilities, 

and therefore, may choose to participate in the Center 

on a more frequent basis. Great effort will be made to 

ensure that the program maintains the flexibility needed 

to accommodate all participants and create deliverables 

suited to individualized sets of needs, while at the same 

time, retain its focus on the advancement of monitoring 

and assessment technology and their application.

Education and Training

The development of a capable human infrastructure is 

an evolving process that requires a considerable amount 

of time. However, when a series of well-organized, highquality, and focused educational and training experiences 

(short courses, workshops, seminars, etc.) are delivered, 

positive impacts will be felt over a fairly short period 

of time. Training and educational programs will begin 

almost immediately in a variety of subject areas that relate to monitoring and assessment, geo-spatial sciences, 

spatial statistical modeling, and specific technology 

applications. Short courses will be tailored to specific 

experts, technicians, resource managers, as well as to 

the highest level of scientists wishing to elevate their 

understanding of some component(s) of monitoring 

and assessment, remote sensing, and spatial statistical 

modeling. The unique feature of this program is that 

all courses, regardless of the topic, will include the role 

of the particular subject in the context of an integrated 

approach to monitoring and assessment, and the use of 

information for ecosystem sustainability. Leaders in 

their fields will be asked to present workshops and short 

courses to groups of participants in the appropriate geographical locations. Course subject areas may include, 

but are not limited to:

Geodesy Spatial Statistics

Field Measurements Geography

Data Mining Statistical Sampling

Remote Sensing Telematics

Point Process Modeling Spatial Data Management

Spatial Mathematics Ecosystem Management

Global Positioning Systems Statistical Programming

Monitoring Methodology GIS Applications

Quality Assurance Assessment Methodology

Spatial Modeling Quantitative Ecology

Workshops and short course schedules will be flexible 

to accommodate the needs of participants. Conferences 

and seminar series can be offered as the need for such 

instruments becomes apparent.

In addition to the courses listed above that are fairly 

specific in scope which will be offered from time-to-time 

and are designed to elevate the student’s knowledge in 

a particular science or technology area, an exciting and 

unique course, entitled Spatial Analysis and Statistical 

Modeling, will be offered three times per year (January, 
758 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

May, and August). This course, offered in three parts, 

will serve as the flagship of the entire training program 

and cover the spectrum of issues in geo-spatial analysis 

and modeling from statistical sampling, remote sensing, 

through data management and analysis using geographic 

information systems to spatial statistics.

Development of Organizational 

Physical Infrastructure

Any organization that wishes to be self-sufficient 

in monitoring and assessment methodology and applications will need to develop both the human and 

physical infrastructure necessary to perform the required 

tasks. The physical infrastructure needed to support a 

comprehensive integrated Ecological Monitoring and 

Assessment Laboratory (EMAL) is highly dependent 

upon the desired outputs, personnel, resources, and other 

considerations of an organization. A successful EMAL 

will not only need to be equipped with the most modern 

and functional hardware, but also contain a wide variety 

of computer software and analytical models to perform 

the myriad of activities that monitoring and assessment 

processes and information results applications demand.

Hardware

Such technical equipment as computer hardware and 

software, assorted peripherals, image interpretation devices, communications and high-speed and high-access 

telephone equipment are among the components of a 

modern EMAL facility. The development of organizational physical infrastructure will undoubtedly take place 

over time. Partner institutions can always assist in the 

processes of providing technical support for decision 

making and facilitate the acquisition of desired equipment, as they are needed.

Software and computer models

Physical infrastructure requirements can include a 

variety of software products. An array of data management, geographic information systems, image processing, 

statistical, and other widely used commercial products 

will be needed in a comprehensive EMAL facility. These 

products can be purchased from vendors and consultants 

who can always be available to provide advice on product 

suitability and facilitate the purchase. Consultants can 

work closely with companies who create the products that 

are at the cutting edge of technological development.

Scenarios and Applications

While focused on the goals described above, the 

Center can address a variety of critical questions that 

specify the data and information that is needed for assessments of ecosystem sustainability at multiple scales 

and resolution levels. For example, what is the spatial 

and temporal condition of a watershed’s critical resources (for example, vegetation, soils, water, animals, 

landscapes, runoff, erosion, human activity, etc.)? What 

components/parts of watersheds are changing and why? 

Where are the identified changes taking place (for example, within and across watersheds)? Why are specific 

resources changing faster than others and where are 

those changes are taking place (for example, within and 

across watersheds)? As ecosystems, what is the quantity, 

quality, extent of services provided by watersheds, and 

how do human systems benefit from them across jurisdictional spatial and temporal scales? Within and across 

watersheds, where is mitigation/restoration of resources 

and processes most practical and beneficial, and how are 

human systems sustaining the ecological integrity and 

societal value of watersheds? Will the current extent and 

condition of resources/services of watersheds meet future 

ecological and economic needs? How can stakeholders 

(for example, landowners, federal and state government, 

industry, academia, and nongovernmental organizations) 

work together to confront appropriately the complexity 

of problems and issues within and across watersheds so 

that we can ensure the health of these systems and the 

well being of present and future generations? These and 

other important questions open a world of opportunity 

for advancing monitoring and assessment technologies 

and their application to a portfolio of environmental 

resources. Other scenarios and applications are limited 

only by our imagination.

Products and Benefits

The Center study creates a window of opportunity for 

a coordinated national and multinational effort to design 

and implement appropriate approaches to inventory 

and monitoring of ecosystem resources in the Mexican 

state of Jalisco. Central to this initiative is the opportunity to further improve information compatibility and 

procedures for use in integrating and evaluating information on the status, extent, trends, and projected changes 

of ecosystem resources within and across jurisdictional 

scales, and at multiple scales and resolution levels. It will 

promote the sharing of scientific and technical information and approaches to gain common understanding on 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 759

a variety of issues and problems of current and future 

concern within and across jurisdictional boundaries and 

geographical scales. Integrated environmental synthesis 

focused on addressing critical issues and problems will 

be important outputs produced by the Center and its 

institutional partners. For Latin American countries, 

and particularly for Mexico, the Center will serve as a 

learning facility within which scientists and resource 

managers would be able to:

Discuss issues and problems of technical and scientific 

nature related to integrated- interoperable approaches 

to inventory and monitoring of ecosystem resources.

Design, plan, and execute specific inventory and 

monitoring projects for ecological assessment and 

management of ecosystem resources.

Have access to data, information, technical expertise, 

and technologies related to integrated/interoperable 

approaches to inventory and monitoring of ecosystem 

resources.

Work with technical experts from cooperating 

organizations to standardize protocols, eliminate 

redundancy and inconsistency, and promote Quality 

Assurance/Quality Control procedures on data collection, management, statistical analysis and modeling, 

and reporting.

Obtain technical assistance on developing procedures 

to assess and certify the scientific credibility of data 

and information from inventory and monitoring projects, as well as technical support on identifying where 

weaknesses exist and how they should be corrected.

Through this synergy, the Center would function as 

a network system to deliver geo-spatial environmental 

syntheses, results, technology, and interoperable data and 

information to scientists, managers, landowners, policy 

makers, and the public of the state of Jalisco, as well as 

other Mexican states and institutions abroad. Moreover, 

it would provide resource managers and stakeholders 

in other regions and states in Mexico with a model for 

developing similar approaches. In addition, the project 

is innovative and will enhance institutional capacity in 

that:

It is the first Western Hemisphere effort to focus on 

using an integrated-interoperable approach to inventory and monitoring of ecosystem resources across 

jurisdictional levels and at multiple scales and resolution levels.

It will link a diversity of stakeholders concerned with 

the inventory and monitoring of ecosystem resources 

in Mexico and abroad.

Experts from cooperating institutions of the Western 

Hemisphere will work together as a team to address 

technical and scientific issues and problems concerning 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

the design and implementation of integrated-interoperable inventory and monitoring systems of ecosystem 

resources.

Participating experts of cooperating institutions and 

organizations will become more aware of what has 

been accomplished in their respective countries, and 

will have the opportunity to develop stronger linkages through technical and scientific cooperation 

and collaboration on a variety of disciplines related 

to monitoring and assessment for ecosystem sustainability.

While the state of Jalisco will clearly receive the most 

tangible and direct benefits from the Center, it is also clear 

that this project will benefit many other institutions and 

people, both nationally and abroad. Additional benefits 

to cooperating institutions and organizations include: 

(1) the development of cost-effective, state of the art 

approaches to integration of data bases developed for 

diverse purposes into a useful inventory and monitoring 

system, thus assuring comparability and interoperability 

across institutions; (2) the integration of multiple scales 

into one study which has wide application for ecosystem 

resource management and planning; and (3) the Center 

addresses many of the technical and organizational 

problems that face current inventory and monitoring 

systems, and solutions to these problems would greatly 

benefit them. Designed as a multi-institutional response 

capability, the Center will bring about the formation of 

highly diverse partnerships capable of integrating human 

and capital resources to understand and confront common problems and issues, define and establish priorities, 

and seek out ways for alternative options for conflictive 

solutions.

Organizational Considerations

To achieve successful results, it is necessary that this 

initiative be organized, administered, and managed by 

the most effective means possible. It is highly recommended that the state government of Jalisco, through 

FIPRODEFO, take the responsibility to organize and 

fund its implementation, as well as its programmatic 

direction. The organizational structure of FIPRODEFO 

is well suited for housing and carrying out this initiative and its programs. Other sources of support can be 

provided through institutional partners of FIPRODEFO 

and the Jalisco state government. Other possibilities for 

organizing and funding this center must be analyzed 

within FIPRODEFO’s internal decision making structure 

in coordination with its clients and institutional partners. 

Scientific and technical support can always be provided 

by CAMESA’s international partners.

•
760 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Conclusion

The proposed Center provides a flexible and adaptable 

strategy for advancing the development and application 

of pixel level estimation and modeling approaches to 

monitoring and assessment for ecosystem sustainability, 

at multiple spatial and temporal scales and resolution 

levels. Specifically, the Center will focus not only on 

the use of modern technology tools as a collection of 

separate entities whose value lies in their independent 

application, but extends the concept to the integration of 

scientific and technical disciplines into a seamless fabric 

of cost-effective and scientifically credible approaches 

to sample, collect, store, summarize, and manage data; 

analyze data to synthesize information and knowledge 

into geo-spatially explicit pixel-based applications; 

and finally, visualize and communicate the resulting 

outputs and syntheses in ways that are comprehensible 

to people of all cultural backgrounds. Most importantly, 

it is expected that its products and outputs will account 

for specific stakeholder needs and wants so that they 

can be readily used to support local planning and decision-making processes for sustainability in a timely and 

meaningful manner.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 761

Vision

The vision of the proposed Institute is to develop the 

human and physical infrastructure necessary to implement modern technologies in the field of inventory and 

monitoring. This includes the following fields only as 

a starting point: classical statistical methods, Bayesian 

statistical decision making methods, remote sensing 

and aerial photography, geomatics and modeling to enable individuals, agencies, organizations, communities, 

governments, and other entities to effectively manage 

and enrich their ecosystem resources and their social 

and cultural environment. To implement this vision 

requires close collaboration between FIPRODEFO, the 

University of Guadalajara, Industries and Environmental 

Organizations in Mexico, the Federal Government of 

Mexico, the Rocky Mountain Research Station of the US 

Forest Service and the National Resources Conservation 

Service (NRCS) of the USDA.

Mission

In pursuit of that vision, the Institute mission is to be 

an instrument which fosters the climate of intellectual 

discovery, growth and effective dissemination in the 

subject areas described above as well as new ones still 

to be developed. Through this mission, the Institute will 

contribute to:

Educating high-quality professionals and technicians 

with respect to the integrated approach of the above 

fields through a program of classroom studies and applied and theoretical research wit emphasis on people 

in Latin America.

Creating and promoting new information and knowledge through the interaction of such professionals 

and technicians with researchers and teachers of the 

Institute involved with environmental, social, and 

1.

2.

economic issues through research and development 

projects.

In summary the mission is to educate Latin Americans 

in the methodology of inventory and monitoring and to 

conduct research in improved methods to do so.

Goal

The program goal is to fulfill the mission through a 

strategy that incorporates education, research, training, 

and infrastructure development to enable a variety of 

ecosystem resource-related agencies, individuals, organizations, communities, governments, and other entities to 

make wise managerial and utilization decisions regarding 

ecosystem resources using the tools and critical thinking 

associated with the above fields to a diverse cadre of ecosystem resource stakeholders, a physical infrastructure 

will grow which will allow information and knowledge 

with high social utility to be delivered in an efficient, 

visual form to the intended audience.

Objectives

To achieve the desired goals and guide the investments in this program, the following specific objectives 

will be achieved:

Create the next generation of human infrastructure 

(through graduate education, training, and other 

outreach) that will have the scientific and technical 

expertise to use the tools of the above specialties to 

synthesize the data into scientifically-credible, geospatial information and knowledge that is technically 

defensible and of high social and economic utility; 

and visualize and disseminate the results to the user 

groups.

Develop a set of integrated tools from these specialties through a comprehensive program of applied and 

1.

2.

A Research/Teaching Inventory and Monitoring Institute 

for the State of Jalisco, Mexico

Cele Aguirre Bravo and Hans T Schreuder

Abstract—A brief outline is given of what is considered required for a research/teaching Institute for inventory and monitoring in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. An important 

part of this presentation is to get feedback from the audience on suggestions of how to 

best implement such an institute.
762 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

theoretical research that for the most part will be associated with education and result in the development 

of a broad spectrum of application tools.

Support the development and organization of a geomatics-based infrastructure (both physical and human) 

through which scientific and technological expertise 

can flow on a variety of projects to be conducted under 

the auspices of this program.

Facilitate the formulation and implementation of 

a digital-based expert system as a training device 

to structure, manage, and communicate geospatial 

knowledge and applications for use in decision-making and planning for sustainable ecosystem resource 

management and utilization.

Organizational structure:

Director

Requirements for the position:

Both strong demonstrated technical (in inventory 

and monitoring) and administrative experience with 

a professional and technician workforce.

Fluency in both Spanish and English.

Considerable experience throughout the Americas.

This person would be in charge of the Institute with 

key responsibilities of managing the personnel of the 

Institute, interaction with key user groups, obtaining 

additional financing as needed and interacting with 

important other professionals in equivalent positions in 

the Americas.

Professionals

Required courses for professionals: Basically we are 

aiming for people finishing with a MS degree in forest 

inventory. These people would be trained to become 

the managers of inventory and monitoring efforts in the 

various states of Mexico or in other Latin American countries. The below core courses should consist of a close 

integration of both theory and field work to make the 

ideas come alive and crystallize in the student’s mind:

A thorough understanding and knowledge of books like 

Schreuder, Ernst and Ramirez (2004) for having a solid 

grasp of the fundamentals of statistical methodology. One 

year’s course ideally. There should be considerable experience with simulation exercises such are emphasized 

in Schreuder et al (2004) but also actual field experience 

working with experienced field people.

A thorough understanding and knowledge of books 

for having a solid grasp of modeling with special emphasis on spatial data analyses. One year course ideally. 

There should be considerable experience with simulation exercises and actual field experience working with 

experienced field people.

3.

4.

1.

2.

3.

A thorough understanding and knowledge of the 

following books for having a solid understanding 

and knowledge of instrumentation and measuring 

instruments.

Remote Sensing of the Environment: An Earth 

Resource Perspective by John R. Jensen (Prentice 

Hall series in geographic information science) 2000 

Prentice-Hall, Inc.NY.

Aerial Photography and Image Interpretation, 2nd 

Ed., by David P. Paine, James D. Kiser, John Wiley 

& Sons, Inc. NY.

Elements of Photogrammetry with Applications in 

GIS, 3rd Ed. 2000 by Paul R. Wolf and Bon A. Dewitt 

McGraw Hill, ISBN 0-07-292454-3

Introductory Digital Image Processing: A Remote 

Sensing Perspective, 3rd Ed. 2005 by John r. Jensen. 

(Prentice Hall series in geographic information science) Pearson Prentice Hall. NY.

One year course ideally.

One semester in the office and one semester in the 

field.

Considerable experience with simulation exercises.

Actual field experience working with experienced 

field people.

A semester course in human relations and management of humans.

Technicians

These people would be trained to become the key crew 

leaders in inventory and monitoring efforts in the various 

states of Mexico or other Latin American countries. Core 

courses would include:

The above for professionals covered in one semester 

at clearly a more superficial level. We are basically 

talking about training for what would be equivalent 

to a 2-year junior college degree in the USA.

One full semester of field work emphasizing inventory and monitoring methods. Considerable amount of 

this work could be done doing actual plots in Jalisco 

under the close supervision of experienced field crew 

leaders.

A short course in quality control and quality assessment methodology.

Researchers

These people would be hired directly by the institute 

to direct research efforts in the field of inventory and 

monitoring. The initial core group should consist of a 

PhD researcher in remote sensing, one in statistics and 

one in modeling and GIS.

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2.

3.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 763

Introduction

In 1966 the State Government of Jalisco conducted a 

review of the state’s forest sector. A new forest agenda 

resulted from this review, which led to a set of ground 

breaking actions creating a long term forest development 

program known as FIPRODEFO (Trust Fund for the 

Administration of the Forest Development Program of 

Jalisco). Among the relevant issues, the survey revealed 

the need to reclaim damaged forest land, strengthen 

silviculture programs for natural temperate forests, support commercial plantation efforts, update and improve 

forest industry infrastructure, and improve information 

gathering and dissemination in support of policy planning. Solving these problems became the agenda for 

FIPRODEFO.

FIPRODEFO relies on Consejo Agropecuario de 

Jalisco A.C. (CAJ, The Farming Council of Jalisco), to 

operate development projects. CAJ is an advisory board 

to Jalisco’s governor, and it is made up of landowners, 

industry representatives, and public agencies. Through 

the leadership of CAJ, FIPRODEFO has been able to 

undertake commercial plantation projects, technical 

cooperation agreements, and other activities in favor of 

innovation in the state’s forest sector.

Guiding principles in FIPRODEFO’s activities 

include clear and open checks and balances of fund 

appropriations, no nonsense responsive decision making, and efficiency. FIPRODEFO’s outsourcing policy 

permits state wide allocation of opportunities for local 

contractors, taking advantage of an ample base of talented 

professionals.

Disappointment with quality and opportunity in 

national forest statistics reports, and the clear notion 

that information gathered for national purposes lack the 

detail and depth to support local decisions built a case 

justifying the creation of a state of the art statistical and 

geographical information system tailored for Jalisco’s 

conditions and agenda. Responding to this opportunity, 

FIPRODEFO joined in a strategic knowledge partnership 

with CAMESA (Consortium for Advancing Monitoring 

for Ecosystem Sustainability in the Americas). The two 

year process of scientific and technical development of 

IMRENAT, Jalisco’s natural resources inventory and 

monitoring project, ensued. Along this path, FIPRODEFO 

called upon the cooperation and partnership with diverse 

The Trust Fund for the Administration of the Forest 

Development Program, and the Inventory and Monitoring 

of Jalisco’s Natural Resources

Luis Artemio Alonso T.

Abstract—In 1966 the State Government of Jalisco conducted a review of the state’s 

forest sector. A new forest agenda resulted from this review, which led to a set of 

ground breaking actions creating a long term forest development program known as 

FIPRODEFO (Trust Fund for the Administration of the Forest Development Program of 

Jalisco). Among the relevant issues, the survey revealed the need to reclaim damaged 

forest land, strengthen silviculture programs for natural temperate forests, support 

commercial plantation efforts, update and improve forest industry infrastructure, and 

improve information gathering and dissemination in support of policy planning. Solving 

these problems became the agenda for FIPRODEFO.

Disappointment with quality and opportunity in national forest statistics reports, and 

the clear notion that information gathered for national purposes lack the detail and 

depth to support local decisions was building a demand for a state of the art statistical and geographical information system tailored for Jalisco’s conditions and agenda. 

Responding to this opportunity, FIPRODEFO joined in a strategic knowledge partnership 

with CAMESA (Consortium for Advancing Monitoring for Ecosystem Sustainability in the 

Americas). The two year process of scientific and technical development of IMRENAT, 

Jalisco’s natural resources inventory and monitoring project, ensued. Guidelines, technology, and procedures derived in the development phase shaped IMRENAT operational 

phase, up to the point of completion of the first of six regions.
764 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

institutions including Colorado State University, USDA 

FS Forest Inventory and Analysis, Environment Canada, 

and the Mexican Institute for Forest, Agriculture and 

Animal Science Research (INIFAP).

IMRENAT began as an exercise to translate into measurable goals a set of general principles about seamless 

integration of multiple scale and multiple resolution levels of inventorying and monitoring of natural resources. 

Goals were then used in designing a scheme for sampling 

specific variables in the field, and modeling imagery information. A pilot area was selected to test a number of 

variants in sampling and measuring schemes. This area 

was conveniently close to the capital city of Guadalajara. 

At the same time this region encompasses a wide array of 

vegetation cover types, and offers numerous challenges 

to field crews, from an enormous biodiversity, up to terrain so rough as to present frequent cases of unreachable 

sample sites. In the near future, experiences gained in 

the pilot area will permit a large scale field sampling of 

the rest of the state. Afterwards, a monitoring survey will 

provide updated figures every 5 years, if 20 percent of 

the state area were remeasured annually.

An Agenda Fit for IMRENAT

FIPRODEFO first became interested in IMRENAT 

when a complaint by Jalisco’s wood industries about 

scarce lumber in the local market was being blamed for 

increased imports from other regions and from abroad, 

and that were still insufficient to dampen illegal timber 

harvesting. A review of past inventory data supported the 

idea that standing stock in Jalisco’s forestlands declined 

over the medium range, but this idea conflicted with the 

latest national forest inventory data. The 2000 inventory 

reported net timber increment three times the harvest rate. 

A careful examination stumbled into a confusing set of 

technical complications. A new forest inventory was then 

seen not only as a check up on previously available data, 

but an urgent development opportunity to create a monitoring system that will try, once and for all, to provide a 

coherent stream of forest statistics for medium and long 

term planning purposes.

Fragmentation was one of the noise factors in estimating deforestation rates, one of the politically important 

figures that forest inventories are expected to yield. 

Facing this problem led to the use of new conceptual 

frameworks about borderless interpretation of landscapes. This idea changes the way that remote sensing 

images are interpreted. Under the new concept, the basic 

land unit will be as small as the image pixel. Interpreting 

pixels cannot be done as before, by expert opinion, but 

it can be done mechanically by using spatial modeling. 

In this scheme, land classification will be one spatial 

modeling application. 

The fact that IMRENAT was born as a seamless multiple scales and resolutions monitoring technology further 

increased its potential utility to address FIPRODEFO’s 

agenda. Now, the new tools will be useful in addressing 

interactions between land uses, environment, and long 

term cumulative regional effects.

The Mexican government, like other governments in 

the world is interested in integrated operation of all public 

programs that deal with a specific thematic area. In this 

process, FIPRODEFO has been mandated to coordinate 

actions and views with other institutions dealing with 

rural matters. The general attitude to land development in 

rural institutions demanded from FIPRODEFO reconsidering its list of forest policy issues, and move them away 

from managing timberlands, to address forest-non forest processes such as deforestation, fragmentation, land 

development, agroforestry activities, and other interface 

opportunities and conflicts. Facts are one means to talk 

between agencies and FIPRODEFO, and IMRENAT is 

an ideal way to do this.

IMRENAT Features

From FIPRODEFO’s point of view, IMRENAT is one 

more activity that eventually should be handed away to 

institutions or firms in the forestry sector of Jalisco. This 

policy follows the general principle that FIPRDEFO is 

a promoter of innovation who provides seed money and 

carries out the development phase of new ideas, techniques and programs. 

Another FIPRODEFO policy is to hire field crews 

among foresters and technicians from the study region. 

This policy reduces costs and makes FIPRODEFO an organization that can quickly change and respond to needs 

and opportunities, but the real reason for outsourcing is 

to train and induce interest among state foresters in the 

new concepts, techniques, and tools. The more the inner 

workings of INRENAT are known, the more likely it is 

that foresters will be inclined to use them and suggest 

others how to take full advantage of IMRENAT resources 

and availability. This policy contrasts with traditional 

national forest inventories. The latter ones have been 

conducted by specialists and reclusive organizations 

whose only output is a set of statistics and maps, but little 

idea on what those items can be used for.

Users have previously experienced disappointing reliability of forest inventory outputs, despite considerable 

efforts and expense invested in them. One specific reason 

for the poor performance of past inventories is the fact 

that their design was optimized to answer national level 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 765

inquires, but lack depth and detail to describe local variations, issues, causal connections, and other important 

information with local and specific focus. IMRENAT 

is not fit to fully respond to these demands and quality 

requirements, but its performance is expected to excel 

in ways that will be evident because its design is guided 

to describe and explain dynamic processes, and to make 

connections between disparate factors, locations, and 

time frames.

Knowledge Partnerships, a 

Practical Exercise

Although it is natural to seek collaboration and 

resource sharing to improve the work in innovative 

projects, partnerships also offer other important benefits. 

User feedback, faster adoption of new ideas, credibility 

and better linkage between program outputs and how 

they are used are the major reasons to foster close relations with the institutions and organizations involved in 

land management.

Bringing together a wide array of stakeholders into 

the planning, realization and usage phases of inventory 

and monitoring projects such as IMRENAT is a matter 

of great importance beyond their immediate roles played 

and resources shared. As important as the technology and 

science, the political support can be harnessed in favor 

of completing the project, and enthusiasm can be enticed 

in otherwise reluctant users.

These are the reasons behind the considerable effort 

in IMRENAT to foster a creative environment of collaboration with a varied number of partners. Some of 

these associations are with academic institutions that 

offer technical support and scientific credibility. INIFAP 

has been instrumental in IMRENAT, both as institution 

and as a group of talented specialists committed to give 

IMRENAT the best counseling. Government institutions 

such as CAJ have given a considerable leverage and 

political clout that provides ample public exposure to 

IMRENAT outputs. CAMESA and the US Forest Service 

have brought international visibility and institutional 

strenght to the project. An improved communication is 

necessary with other institutions like INEGI (the Mexican 

Institute of Geography, Statistics and Informatics), in 

the future, when numerous applications will demand the 

benefit of adding information layers from other sources 

beyond those measured directly by IMRENAT.

In short, FIPRODEFO has taken IMRENAT as a high 

priority project that will offer reliable information in a 

sustained manner. This information stream has been designed from start to be specific to Jalisco’s forest, natural 

resources and land management issues and concerns, and 

at the same time, monitoring has been designed in a way 

to be flexible and responsive to evolving situations. The 

seamless nature in IMRENAT is particularly suitable 

to understand and keep tabs on interactions between 

natural and developed environments. These interphase 

relations between land uses and ecological processes 

have interconnections that are better handled by tools 

as those in IMRENAT.
766 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The detection of unexploded ordnance (UXO) and 

landmines is a major concern for ground forces, land 

reclamation, and commercialized infrastructure projects. In addition, mandated clean up and reclamation of 

military bases requires a robust method to detect contaminants related to UXO and explosive waste materials. 

The Base Realignment and Closure Act (BRAC) and the 

efforts for environmental recovery of Formerly Used 

Defense Sites (FUDS), has demonstrated that many of 

these military bases undergoing recovery possess range 

sites littered with the hazards of unexploded ordnance 

(UXO), explosives-related waste, and other soil-based 

contaminants. Other issues include the vast number of 

landmines in regions around the world that threaten human health and the socio-economic structure of many 

nations. Additionally, buried ordinance and explosives 

limit access to vast natural resources (CalEPA, 2000).

Safe, expedient, and cost effective remediation necessitates technological developments that can detect UXO 

hazards over vast areas, sometimes involving hundreds 

of square miles. Detection by an airborne platform is 

preferred alternative over the current state-of-the-art 

that involves discovering ordinance using specialized 

technicians on foot. Technicians must use manual means 

to tediously explore extensively contaminated areas. In 

many instances, this work is not only cost-prohibitive 

but orders of magnitude more dangerous than a remote 

detection technology.

The use of vegetation as sentinels to indicate 

presence/absence of contaminants provides an ideal 

mechanism for a wide-area detection scenario. With the 

exception of extreme arid, polar, and oceanic environments, vegetation is the dominant cover-type viewed 

from remote sensing platforms. Plants also have the 

ability to interrogate their environment spatially and 

temporally through roots and leaf stomata. It has been 

demonstrated that visible, near-infrared, and short-wave 

infrared spectral cues produced by natural vegetation 

can indicate the presence or absence of (toxic) materials (Milton and others 1991; Vane and Goetz, 1993). 

However, research has shown that it is difficult to 

Trace Chemical Detection through Vegetation Sentinels 

and Fluorescence Spectroscopy

John E. Anderson, Robert L. Fischer, and Jean D. Nelson

Abstract—Detection of environmental contaminants through vegetation sentinels has 

long been a goal of remote sensing scientists. A promising technique that should be 

scalable to wide-area applications is the combined use of genetically modified vascular 

plants and fluorescence imaging. The ultimate goal of our research is to produce a bioreporter that will express fluorescence when encountering nitro-aromatic compounds such 

as munitions contaminants. To test the recovery of gfp, our study used tobacco plants 

(Nicotiana tabacum) that were genetically modified to express the m-gfp5-ER variant 

of the green fluorescent protein (gfp) in conductive tissues. Induction of the gfp was 

stimulated by the uptake and translocation of a systemic organo-phosphate pesticide. 

The first objective of the study was to detect the induced gfp emission in plants exposed 

to the pesticide. The second objective of this effort was to use a field spectrometer and 

imaging system to determine if the fluorescence signature (from the induced plants) 

was spectrally separable from negative controls and permanently expressing plants. 

Concurrent research is underway to optimize the induction specificity of the gfp for a 

variety of target materials (e.g., TNT, RDX, HMX). Here, we report results from a Phase 

I small-business technical transfer research grant (STTR) conducted in Edgefield, SC. 

Our tests showed that gfp could be detected by spectrofluormetry and laser imaging 

and that expressing plants produced approximately three times the fluorescence at 510 

nm as the negative control. Correlation and agreement between the non-imaging and 

imaging spectrometer also showed the optimal excitation wavelength (gfp absorption 

maxima) to be between 390 nm and 410 nm. When matched with the emission wavelength, these numbers represent a broad Stoke’s shift of almost 100 nm that is optimal 

for gfp signal recovery.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 767

positively attribute spectral phenomena to a specific 

plant-contaminant interaction. In most cases, morphological and photosystem stress cues are difficult to 

correlate with specific toxicants, particularly when both 

organic and inorganic compounds are present (Carter 

and others 2000). Furthermore, quantification of toxicants (in mass equivalent levels) that are available for 

uptake is nearly impossible remotely.

One solution to this problem is to modify a desired 

plant species through mutagenesis or genetic engineering 

to produce a diagnostic spectral response only when that 

plant comes into contact with a particular target material. A technique that has received the greatest amount 

of interest is the insertion of genes that promote the 

expression of the green fluorescent protein (gfp). Using 

genetic engineering, gfp can be inserted into specific 

tissues of plants, optimizing signature recovery. The 

protein originates from the jellyfish Aequorea victoria, 

and is often used as a marker for the non-destructive visualization of molecular biological processes involving 

both eukaryotic and prokaryotic cells. For the indication of contaminants, fluorescent protein expression 

is induced by specific (gene) promoters; linked to the 

synthesis or hyper-accumulation of a target material or 

substrate. Depending upon the variant, gfp produces a 

diagnostic fluorescence emission at ~ 509 nm that can be 

detected in dark field or separable from background light 

(Niwa and others 1999; Chiu and others 1996). Current 

research is examining application of proteins that emit 

in the yellow and red spectral regions (i.e., yellow fluorescent protein (yfp) and red fluorescent protein (rfp)). 

Many of the biochemical pathways for assimilation and 

bio-degradation that can foster fluorescence have been 

extensively studied by Meagher and others (2000). As 

sentinels, plants offer the best buffer to maintain stability 

of fluorescent proteins that can be sensitive to fluctuations 

in charge state (Smith, 2002).

Methods

Testing for the Phase I small-business technical transfer research grant (STTR) was conducted at NEWTEC 

Inc. of Edgefield, SC during May 20-22, 2002. NEWTEC 

provides a 1,500 acre federal and state licensed explosive 

test facility with approved storage magazines and an inventory of explosive materials in support of the original 

LIFI/bioreporter development program. NEWTEC coordinated and developed all previous permitting reports 

and gained approvals for deployment of the technology at its facility via the US Environmental Protection 

Agency, and South Carolina Department of Health and 

Environmental Control.

The genetically modified plants were tobacco 

(Nicotiana tabacum), engineered with the modified gfp 

gene (m-gfp5-ER or MGFP) through agrobacterium 

mediated transformation. Wild type tobacco plants were 

utilized as negative controls (NC population); plants 

engineered for permanent gfp expression (constitutive 

expressers, MGFP population) served as positive controls. Induction of gfp in test plants was mediated by 

the translocation and metabolism of a systemic organophosphate pesticide. Expression of fluorescence occurred 

in both leaves and conductive tissues.

The spectroscopic properties of the tobacco plants 

were investigated with a variety of instruments and 

methods. Reflectance was measured with the Analytical 

Spectral Devices (ASD) Field Spec Pro. Fluorescence 

detection hardware consisted of a portable gfp Meter, a 

JY Horiba Fluoromax-3 spectrofluorometer, and Laser 

Induced Fluorescent Imaging and Spectral (LIFI/LIFS) 

sensing equipment.

Results

Visible – near infrared reflectance signatures were 

collected using the ASD FieldSpec radiometer on May 

20 and May 22. The spectral response of the individual 

signatures varied as a function of canopy dimensions 

(i.e., amount of potting visible to the radiometer) and 

canopy geometry. Comparisons between negative control 

plants and constitutive expressers showed no substantial 

difference in the specific population average reflectance 

spectrum (fig. 1). The only notable difference is a few 

percent offset between 750 and 900 nm, which is negligible when considering the ± 1 σ error bars. The spectral 

Figure 1. Reflectance signatures from NEWTEC, South 

Carolina. Blue is negative control, green is MGFP 

population. Error bars represent ± one standard deviation. 

Nineteen samples were used for the negative control, 17 

for the MGFP.
768 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

“spikes” at 925, 1900 and 2500 nm are due to atmospheric absorption that was not removed or smoothed 

by the post processing software.

Fluorescence spectra obtained using the Fluoromax3 was successful in detecting enhanced gfp expression 

from the MGFP population. Figure 2 shows the excitation 

spectra collected at 510 emission. The 510 nm data represent excitation potential at the gfp emission maximum. 

Figure 2 shows that the negative control and MGFP 

plants separate at excitation wavelengths between 390 

and 420 nm. The maximum separation between the two 

curves is found at approximately 410 nm, with the MGFP 

plants fluorescing almost three times as many photons 

as the negative control plants. Separation is good in this 

spectral region as shown by the one standard deviation 

error bars. This data suggests that the optimum excitation to differentiate the negative control plants from the 

constitutive expressers and, potentially, the experimental 

plants, is an excitation source at 400 nm.

Figure 3 shows the emission scan collected at 400 nm 

excitation for the control and MGFP plants. As indicated 

by Figure 3, maximum spectral separation is evident in 

the 510 nm emission range. At wavelengths longer than 

550 nm, the signatures converge and separation is no 

longer possible. This figure shows that the emission at 

510 nm from the MGFP plants is roughly three times that 

of the negative control plants as shown by the emission 

scan in Figure 2. One standard deviation error bars show 

the spectral difference is significant.

Figure 4 shows the LIFS-derived data demonstrate that 

gfp modified plants are spectrally separable from the control plants, most strongly at the gfp emission maximum 

of 510 nm (with an excitation of 400 nm). The LIFS data 

were collected at a distance of approximately one meter 

demonstrated the concept of stand-off detection. These 

data corroborate the data acquired with the gfp meter as 

well as the Fluoromax-3. Leaf canopies were interrogated 

at 400 and 355 nm excitation. A small difference in emission intensity is observed at 355 nm excitation between 

MGFP and NC plants (not shown) but the difference in 

fluorescence emission is much more distinct when the 

excitation is at 400 nm.

Figure 5 shows the results obtained from the Laser 

Induced Fluorescence Imaging system. These data were 

also collected at a one meter stand-off distance. The laser 

light was pulsed at an excitation wavelength of 355 nm. 

An optical receiver with a bandpass filter of 510 nm captured the resulting fluorescence. An algorithm was used to 

remove the green background chlorophyll fluorescence. 

The resultant images show that MGFP plants produced 

Figure 2. Fluorescence excitation signatures for negative 

control and MGFP plants. Emission wavelength = 510 

nm. Eight samples were used to create each of the 

signatures.

Figure 3. Emission spectra from May 22. Excitation wavelength 

= 400 nm.

Figure 4. LIFS signatures from control and gfp expressing 

plants.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 769

a detectable response. This result is encouraging when 

considering that these plants were excited at a non-optimal wavelength of 355 nm.

Conclusions

The focus of the research effort was to generate and 

evaluate fluorescent signatures of genetically modified 

plants and to tailor the plant fluorescence to optimize 

the use of existing passive or active imaging technology 

from an airborne platform. The purpose of this test was to 

perform a field demonstration and proof of concept that 

plants genetically programmed to express were detectable and separable from negative control plants.

Fluorescence spectra obtained from the Fluoromax-3 

was successful in detecting the gfp expression from the 

constitutive expresser population at the gfp wavelength 

of 510 nm. The maximum separation between the two 

curves is found at an excitation wavelength of approximately 410 nm, with the MGFP plants fluorescing almost 

Figure 5. LIFI images of negative control (left) and expressing tobacco plants (right).

three times as many photons as the negative control 

plants. Separation is good in this spectral region as shown 

by the error bars.

The results found by the Fluoromax spectrofluorometer were supported by the stand-off LIFS and 

LIFI systems. The LIFS also detected a factor of three 

intensity difference between the negative control and 

expressing plants. While numerical measurements from 

the LIFI system were not available, the MGFP plants 

were separable from the NC plants after the removal of 

green chlorophyll fluorescence.

The test showed genetically modified plants expressing gfp can be successfully interrogated and detected 

with spectroscopy and stand-off fluorescence systems. 

Research is actively underway to develop a host of different plants that possess higher selectivity and express 

(gfp) only after synthesis of specific contaminants (such as 

TNT). If plants can be developed to respond (by fluorescence) to a particular contaminant at intensities seen in the 

MGFP population, then detection of target contaminants 

should be feasible by fluorescence remote sensing.
770 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

References

Chiu,W-L, Y. Niwa, W. Zeng, T. Hirano, H. Kobayashi, and J. 

sheen. 1996 Engineered GFP as a vital reporter in plants. 

Current Biology, 6, 325-330.

Gregory A. Carter, Raj Bahadur and Richard J. Norby. 2000. 

Effects of elevated atmospheric CO2 and temperature on 

leaf optical properties in Acer saccharum, Environmental 

and Experimental Botany, 43:3, 267-273.

Meagher, R., C. Rugh, M. Kandasamy, G. Gragson, N. Wang. 

2000. Engineered phytoremediation of mercury pollution 

in soil and water using bacterial genes. In

Phytoremediation of Contaminated Soil and Water, T. Banuelos 

and G. Berkeley (eds). Ann Arbor Press, Inc. 201-219.

Milton, N., B. Eisworth, and C. Ager. 1991. Effect of phosphorus deficiency on the spectral reflectance and morphology 

of soybean plants. Remote Sensing Environment 36:121-

127.

Niwa, Y., T. Hirano, K. Yoshimoto, M. Shimizu, and H. 

Kobayashi. 1999. Non-invasive quantitative detection 

and applications of non-toxic S65T-type green fluorescent 

protein in living plants. The Plant Journal 18:4, 455-463.

Smith, C., J. Anderson, R. Fischer, and S. Webb. 2002. Stability 

of green fluorescent protein using luminescence spectroscopy: is GFP applicable to field analysis of contaminants? 

Environmental Pollution 120:3, 517-520.

CalEPA 2000. Military Base Closure, Cleanup, and Reuse. 

California Environmental Protection Agency, Sacramento, 

CA.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 771

Introduction

Oak wilt (Ceratocystis fagacearum) is a serious tree 

disease that kills many species of oaks. The disease 

spreads in two ways, via insect vectors and root grafts. 

Untreated infection centers kill thousands of oak trees 

annually throughout 22 middle and eastern states in the 

US, and as far south as Texas (Appel and Maggio, 1984; 

Juzwik, 2000; USDA Forest Service, 2001; O’Brien et. 

al., 2003), (fig. 1), creating ever widening pockets of disturbance in forests, woodlots, and home landscapes.Oak 

trees dominate the Minneapolis/St. Paul urban landscape 

and are both a valued element of the forest ecosystem 

(International Society of Arboriculture, 1992; Nowak et. 

al., 2001; USDA, 2001) and an important food source 

for many animals (Juzwik, 2000; Sander, 2003). But the 

oaks are threatened: in 1998, the Minnesota Department 

of Natural Resources (MNDNR) identified and treated 

3,182 acres of infected oak wilt trees in Anoka County. 

The MNDNR projects that, at current infection rates, 

there will be a two-fold increase in oak wilt by 2008 

(MNDNR, 2001).The purpose of our study was to test 

the feasibility of using a classification tree on commonly 

acquired datasets and location data collected in Anoka 

County, Minnesota, to create a surface of potential oak 

wilt distribution. Tree-based models (decision trees) are 

useful for both categorical classification and regression 

problems. The classification or regression tree is a collection of many rules displayed in the form of a binary 

tree. The rules are determined by a recursive partitioning 

procedure (MathSoft, 1999). Such an approach offers 

a way to describe the spatial continuity that is an essential feature of many natural phenomena (Isaacs and 

Srivastasa, 1989), and have been used to predict spatial 

patterns and develop indicators of sudden oak death in 

California, USA (Kelly and Meentemeyer, 2002), classify 

remote sensing imagery (Michaelson and others 1994; 

Friedl and Brody, 1997; Joy and others 2002; Ruefenacht 

and others 2003), and estimate fuel loads in the Black 

Hills, USA (Reich and others 2004).

Advantages of using decision trees include the nonparametric nature of the model, ease of interpretation, and 

the robustness of the test (De’Ath and Fabricius, 2000). 

Decision trees are appropriately used with datasets that 

are a mix of both numeric and factor information, nonlinear and/or non-additive data. A potential disadvantage 

to using decision trees is the need for large numbers of 

samples (Joy, 2003).

Developing a Methodology to Predict Oak Wilt 

Distribution Using Classification Tree Analysis

Marla C. Downing, USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team, 

Fort Collins, CO

Vernon L. Thomas, INTECS International, Inc., Fort Collins, CO

Robin M. Reich, Department of Forest Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—Oak wilt (Ceratocystis fagacearum), a fungal disease that causes some 

species of oak trees to wilt and die rapidly, is a threat to oak forested resources in 22 

states in the United States. We developed a methodology for predicting the Potential 

Distribution of Oak Wilt (PDOW) using Anoka County, Minnesota as our study area. 

The PDOW utilizes GIS; the classification tree statistical test; field sample data; commonly acquired, coarse-resolution auxiliary data; and a unique application of data from 

the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite to predict the spatial distribution of oak 

wilt. Two accuracy assessments, one being a ten-fold cross validation, the other using 

verified oak wilt data from a later date, indicate that, at the landscape scale, PDOW 

correctly models the presence of oak wilt, and accurately predicts oak wilt distribution in Anoka County. Important variables in predicting oak wilt distribution in Anoka 

County included: Landsat TM Bands 3, 4, 5, and 7; distances between sample sites 

and lakes (Distance to Lakes); density of streams within a 400 x 400 meter grid surface 

(Stream Density); slope; aspect; and density of roads within a 400 x 400 meter grid 

surface (Road Density).
772 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Materials and Methods

Study Area

Anoka County, just north of the Minneapolis/St. Paul 

urban area, is comprised of 110,000 hectares, and has 

a population of nearly 300,000 (U.S. Census Bureau, 

2003). The northwest corner of the county lies at the 

latitude of 45.41 degrees north and longitude of 93.51 

degrees west.

The county is considered to be relatively homogeneous 

with primarily sandy soils and oak forest landcover. It 

falls within the Anoka Sand Plains (MNDNR, 1999), a 

subsection of the Minnesota and northeast Iowa Morainal 

Oak Savanna Section (Bailey, 1994), a part of the Eastern 

Broadleaf Forest Continental Province (Bailey, 1995), in 

the Hot Continental Division (Bailey, Ecoregion 220). 

The climate consists of cold winters and hot summers. 

The natural vegetation is characterized by winter deciduous forest dominated by tall broadleaf trees (Bailey, 

1996). The landform is a broad sandy lake plain containing small dunes, kettle lakes, and level to gently rolling 

topography (Wright, 1972). Elevation ranges from 243 to 

342 meters above sea level (USGS 30-meter resolution, 

1:24000 scale DEM).

Anoka County’s Land Type Associations (LTAs) 

are: Anoka Lake Plain (72 percent of the land mass); 

Mississippi Sand Plain (12 percent); Burns Till Plain (9 

percent); Forest Lake Moraine (4 percent); Maplewood 

Moraine (2 percent); Elk River Moraine (1 percent) 

(MNDNR, 2000). Anoka County is made up of oak 

forest (5 percent), other hardwood forest (9 percent), 

coniferous forest (1 percent), shrubs and grasslands 

(17 percent), agriculture (22 percent), water bodies (5 

percent), and urban areas (41 percent) (U of MN, 2002; 

Ward, 2002).

Spatial Information Database

Our database consisted of two components: 1) the 

dependent variable, and 2) the independent variables. The 

sample point field location data served as the dependent 

variable. There were twenty-two independent variables 

used in the analysis, which were collected, aggregated, 

or re-sampled to a 30 x 30 meter spatial resolution.

Dependent Variable datasets were merged to become 

the Sample Point Theme against which the independent 

variables were tested for correlation:

Oak wilt presence and absence field sample data from 

the Land Management Information Center (LMIC), 

Forest Health, Oak Wilt, treated site polygon data, 

1998.

Field visits by the USDA FS NCRS Forest Disease 

Unit and the Forest Health Technology Enterprise 

Team (FHTET) to the LMIC, Forest Health, and “active” oak wilt sites.

Field visits by the USDA FS NCRS Forest Disease 

Unit and FHTET to randomly selected healthy oak 

forest sites.

Independent variables used in the binary Classification 

Tree to determine the level of correlation with the dependent variable:

Landsat TM Path 27 Row 29 bands 1-7, acquired 

May 1998.

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Figure 1. U.S. distribution of oak 

wilt by County—1999 USDA 

Forest Service.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 773

Landsat TM Path 27 Row 29 bands 1-7, acquired 

September 1998.

Elevation, derived from the USGS 30 meter resolution 

DEM (1:24000 scale).

Slope degrees, derived from the USGS DEM using 

ArcView Spatial Analyst (ESRI) slope function.

Aspect (compass direction), derived from the USGS 

DEM using ArcView Spatial Analyst (ESRI) aspect 

function.

Landform (independent of slope), created from a 

custom ArcView Avenue application, which uses an 

irregular 3 x 3 kernel, where positive values indicate 

concavity and negative values indicate convexity, to 

calculate landform from a USGS DEM. A zero value 

indicates flat terrain (McNab, 1989).

Distance to Streams USGS 1:100,000 DLG data, 

measured using ArcView Spatial Analyst, distance in 

meters from line feature function.

Distance to Lakes USGS 1:100,000 DLG data, measured using ArcView Spatial Analyst, distance in 

meters from feature function.

Road Density was measured using ArcView Spatial 

Analyst, distance in meters from line feature function. 

It was calculated as the sum of roads within 400 x 

400 meter grid surfaces. Roads include City Streets, 

County Roads, and TWP Roads from USGS 1:24,000 

data and Major and Ramp roads from MN Department 

of Transportation data.

Stream Density, calculated as the sum of all stream 

surface area within 400 x 400 meter surface grids.

A dependent variable GIS Sample Point Theme was 

created for this study using the LMIC oak wilt database 

as our primary data source. Many sample locations were 

acquired from the 1998 LMIC oak wilt “treated” polygon 

data. Additional sample locations, coded as “possible 

active” oak wilt sites during the 1998 growing season, 

from the same database, were also randomly selected and 

visited in July and August, 2002, by USDA FS NCRS 

Forest Disease and FHTET personnel. GPS location 

points were collected if evidence suggested these “possible active” sites had active oak wilt infection centers 

in 1998. Healthy oak site locations also were acquired 

during this time period. All field visited sample point 

locations were collected using a GPS (Garmin E-Trex 

Legend) at tree locations. Of the 422 sample points collected, 121 were identified as being healthy oak sample 

points, and 301 were identified as having been active 

oak wilt sites in 1998.

All polygon centroid locations and sample point locations (from LMIC, NCRS and FHTET) were merged 

to create the final dependent variable GIS Sample Point 

Theme in ArcView 3.2a. Location points were acquired 

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from polygon centroids using the ArcView command 

“ReturnCenter” (ESRI, 2000) with customized ArcView 

Avenue code to automatically create points from the polygon centroid. Healthy oak wilt sample point locations 

were assigned a value equal to zero, and oak wilt sample 

point locations were assigned a value equal to 1.

Twenty-two auxiliary, or independent variable, GRID 

themes were also constructed for this study: Fourteen 

were created from two, multi-temporal Landsat TM images using the ERDAS Imagine software Grid Export 

function, which un-stacks each band to an individual 

grid. (ERDAS 2001); eight were constructed using the 

Spatial Analyst extension for ArcView. The DEMs were 

used to create the slope and aspect GRID themes. Anoka 

county lakes and streams data were used to construct 

the distance-to-streams, and distance-to-lakes GRID 

themes. Customized ArcView functionality, created with 

ArcView Avenue, was incorporated to create the GRID 

themes of landform, road density, and stream density.

The twenty-two independent variable attributes were 

added to the Sample Point Theme to produce a Spatial 

Information Database. This was accomplished using 

an automated ArcView function (written with ArcView 

Avenue script language), to extract the grid cell values 

from each of the twenty-two independent data themes 

at each of the 422 oak wilt presence or absence sample 

point locations. These grid cell values, taken at the 

sample point locations, were then used to populate the 

Spatial Information Database (USDA Forest Service, 

FHTET, 2003).

Stratification

The southern section of Anoka County has a higher 

degree of urban coverage than the northern section of the 

county. More oak wilt sample point locations were found 

in the more urbanized southern half of Anoka County. To 

determine whether spatial correlation exists between oak 

wilt and urban or natural landscape features, and to ensure 

that the urban condition in the south was not affecting 

the results of the model for the non-urban area to the 

north, the county was stratified into urban and non-urban 

datasets and two models were created (fig. 2).

Classification Tree Analysis and Oak 

Wilt Presence/Absence Surface Map

The Spatial Information Database for Anoka County, 

comprised of 30 x 30 meter biological, geological, hydrological, landscape, and physical information, was the basis 

for our classification tree analyses to predict the distribution of oak wilt for the urban and non-urban models.

S-PLUS© statistical software was used to fit the 

classification tree to the Spatial Information Database 
774 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

for both the urban and non-urban models (TREE; SPLUS©, Statistical Sciences, 2000). The output from 

the classification tree was the input for conditional statements (CON statements), (ESRI ArcView, 2000). CON 

statements were used to create an oak wilt presence or 

absence raster grid surface. The CON request performs a 

conditional if/else evaluation on a cell-by-cell basis. Grid 

theme cells with values of 0 indicated lower probabilities 

of oak wilt presence (defined as absence). Grid theme 

cells with values of 1 indicated higher probabilities of 

oak wilt presence.

After modeling the urban and non-urban sections of 

Anoka County, the two models were merged according 

to the predicted binary output for the entire study area 

into a single Potential Distribution of Oak Wilt grid 

surface (fig. 3).

Accuracy Assessment

There were two accuracy assessments performed. The 

initial accuracy was estimated as a sample-based misclassification error rate, the tenfold cross-validation, (Efron 

and Tibshirani 1993), calculated in S-PLUS© as part of 

the classification tree procedure. The cross-validation 

procedure validates the tree sequence by shrinking and/

or pruning the tree by portioning the data into a number 

of subsets, fitting subtree sequences to these, and using 

a subset previously held out to evaluate the sequence. 

This procedure was used to identify the tree size that 

minimized the prediction error.

The second assessment estimated the accuracy of 

the urban and non-urban models, using actual treated 

oak wilt polygon data from a later date (LMIC data, 

1999-2000). The assessment data contained polygons 

of known and verified oak wilt locations. To assess the 

accuracy of the urban model, a total of 164 known oak 

wilt polygons, with a mean size of 0.76, minimum size 

of .07, and a maximum size of 10.01 acres, were used. 

To assess the non-urban model, a total of 65 known 

oak wilt polygons, with a mean size of 1.94, minimum 

size of 0.14, and a maximum size of 13.16 acres, were 

used. These known oak wilt polygons were intersected 

with the predicted urban and non-urban models to determine the rate at which we accurately predicted the 

presence of oak.

ArcView Avenue code was used to measure the percentage of predicted oak wilt area within each assessment 

polygon (fig. 4). The data was assessed in three ways:

presence of oak wilt in 50 percent or more of the assessment polygon.

presence of oak wilt in 67 percent or more of the assessment polygon.

presence of oak wilt in 100 percent of the assessment 

polygon.

To determine the presence of oak wilt in 50, 67, and 

100 percent or greater of the assessment polygon, we 

intersected the assessment polygon with the results 

from the PDOW, then divided the area of predicted oak 

wilt within the assessment polygon by the total area of 

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Figure 2. Urban (black) and non-urban (gray) spatial 

stratifications for Anoka County. Figure 3. The predictive oak wilt surface for all of Anoka 

County.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 775

the assessment polygon. For an overall percentage of 

accuracy in predicting the presence of oak wilt, the number of assessment polygons that had 50 and 67 percent or 

more, and 100 percent predicted oak wilt by area, were 

totaled and divided by the total number of assessment 

polygons.

Results

Oak Wilt Potential Distribution Surface

The combined PDOW model predicted a potential 

for oak wilt presence in 79 percent of the County. The 

Figure 4. Examples of accuracy assessment polygons and the potential 

amounts of predicted oak wilt within any individual polygon. The dark gray 

denotes areas of predicted oak wilt and the light gray denotes areas predicted 

to be healthy oak. Figure A is an assessment polygon that has less than 50 

percent predicted oak wilt by area; figure B has at least 50 percent predicted 

oak wilt; figure C has at least 75 percent predicted oak wilt.

Figure 5. Urban and Non-urban decision tree models.
776 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

remaining 21 percent of the county had less potential 

for oak wilt presence and was identified as healthy. 

There were eight terminal end nodes, which accounted 

for 87.5 percent of the variability in the urban model. 

The combination of independent variables important 

in predicting the presence or absence of oak wilt were: 

Band 5 (September 1998), Stream Density, Slope, Band 7 

(September 1998), Road Density, and Band 4 (September 

1998).

For the non-urban model, there were nine terminal end 

nodes, which accounted for 82.4 percent of the variability 

in the non-urban model. The combination of independent variables important in predicting the presence or 

absence of oak wilt were: Band 3 (May 1998), Distance 

to Lakes, Band 7 (May 1998), Aspect, Stream Density, 

Road Density and Band 4 (May 1998) (fig. 5).

Proportion of Predicted Oak Wilt and 

Healthy Oak in Urban/Non-Urban 

Models

The proportions of predicted oak wilt and non-oak 

wilt of both models were calculated and compared for 

the entire study area (table 1). The comparison was made 

between the urban and non-urban models in relation to 

the proportion of the area predicted for oak wilt and 

healthy forested area. Results show there was 17 percent 

more predicted oak wilt in the urban model than in the 

non-urban model (table 1).

Accuracy Assessment

The classification tree selected through cross validation for each of the urban and non-urban models had 

Table 3. Accuracy assessment results using verified oak wilt assessment 

polygons from the 1999 and 2000 LMIC database. These assessment 

polygons were not used in the modeling process. Column A: Portion of 

assessment polygon predicted as having the potential for Oak Wilt; Column

B: Proportion of assessment polygons that were accurately predicted with 

having oak wilt by the Urban Model; Column C: Proportion of assessment 

polygons that were accurately predicted with having oak wilt by the NonUrban Model.

A B C

Half of Assessment Polygon 93.3 percent 87.7 percent

Three quarters of Assessment Polygon 90.9 percent 64.6 percent

Entire Polygon 70.1 percent 24.6 percent

Table 2. A) Non-Urban Error matrix for the tenfold cross validation accuracy assessment. Non-urban errors of omission: Absent 

24/62+24 = 27.9 percent; Present 15/15+121 = 11.0 percent. Non-urban errors of commission: Absent 15/62+24 = 17.4 percent; 

Present 24/15+121 = 17.6 percent. B) Urban errors of omission: Absent 21/14+21 = 60.0 percent; Present 4/4+161 = 2.4 percent. 

Urban errors of commission: Absent 4/14+21 = 11.4 percent; Present 21/4+161 = 12.7 percent.

A. Non-Urban	 Classified Absent	 Classified Present	 B. Classified Urban	 Classified Absent	 Classified Present

Actual Absent 62 24 Actual Absent 14 21

Actual Present 15 121 Actual Present 4 161

Table 1. Proportion of predicted oak wilt to healthy oak in the urban and non-urban models 

for the entire study area.

Urban Model Non-Urban Model County Average

Predicted Oak Wilt 87.8 percent 70.7 percent 79.25 percent

Predicted Healthy Oak 12.2 percent 29.3 percent 20.75 percent
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 777

misclassification errors of 0.125 and 0.1757, respectively. 

The error matrices are shown in table 2.

A second accuracy assessment was conducted on the 

oak wilt predictions for both the urban and non-urban 

sections of the county. Accuracy assessment results of the 

urban and non-urban models, using the LMIC actual oak 

wilt locations from 1999 and 2000 are found in table 3. 

The oak wilt locations from 1999 and 2000 were not part 

of the dataset used to develop the oak wilt models.

Discussion and Conclusions

We showed that using a classification tree on commonly acquired datasets could reliably predict the distribution 

of oak wilt across Anoka County, MN. Although our 

potential distribution of oak wilt might be considered a 

theoretical construct, (Felicisimo and others 2002) our 

accuracy assessment using additional oak wilt locations 

establishes that the classification tree analysis of largescale, commonly acquired data can be successfully used 

to construct a model for the spatial distribution of oak 

wilt in both the urban and non-urban landscapes.

Land use, specifically the urban and non-urban categories, played an important role in modeling oak wilt. 

The total area of predicted oak wilt in the urban model 

differed from that in the non-urban model by 17 percent 

with more oak wilt predicted in the urban model than in 

the non-urban model. These results seem to suggest that 

stratifying the landscape according to urbanized and nonurbanized land cover produces more accurate predictive 

oak wilt models.

We showed that a classification tree analysis of largescale data, combined with location data collected in the 

field, is useful for identifying indicator variables that are 

correlated with the presence and/or absence of oak wilt in 

Anoka County. Our model shows that Landsat TM Bands 

3, 4, 5, and 7 are significant for predicting the presence or 

absence of oak wilt in Anoka County. Bands 3 and 4 are 

commonly used for vegetative analyses and are logical 

variables for predicting healthy or stressed vegetation. 

Bands 5 and 7 have also been related to vegetative condition but also to soil moisture retention. To substantiate 

the importance of these variables, further application of 

these methods in another study area dissimilar in characteristics to Anoka County is suggested.

Time spent in the field was limited to the collection 

of only one healthy sample site for every 2.5 oak wilt 

sites. We believe this biased our results: The greater 

percentage of oak wilt sites likely skewed the model, 

causing it to over predict the potential for oak wilt. An 

appropriate sample design is critical for modeling success. Acquiring more of the healthy sample sites, selected 

with a systematic sampling routine, will result in a model 

that is equally robust at predicting the location of oak 

wilt and healthy locations.

We were mindful of project costs as we constructed 

a methodology to be used by forest managers. We 

restricted our analysis to variables that were easily 

obtained and with minimum costs. In so doing, we reduced our ability to illuminate factors affecting oak wilt 

on a smaller spatial scale. Given additional resources, 

additional variables could be collected in the field at 

the sampling locations, such as: type of oak species, 

other tree species present, percent oak species, dominant over and under story, tree diameters, tree height, 

soil samples. These variables tend to change over short 

distances and may explain some residual conditions essential to the presence or absence of oak wilt. Future 

studies should also include soil information collected 

at the sample locations.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank the following individuals from the USDA Forest Service, North Central 

Research Station, Forest Disease Unit, for their participation in this project: Jennifer Juzwik for Kathy Kromroy 

for their intellectual contributions during the conceptualization and execution of the project; Kathy Ward and 

Paul Castillo for their technical assistance in collecting 

oak wilt field data and the acquisition of appropriate 

data layers for use in the analysis. We would also like to 

acknowledge: Joseph O’Brien, from the USDA Forest 

Service, Forest Health and Protection, Northeastern area, 

for his general support of this work; and Susan Burks, 

Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, Division 

of Forestry, for her participation as a stakeholder.

References

Appel, D.N. and R. C. Maggio. 1984. Aerial survey for oak 

wilt incidence at three locations in central Texas. Plant Dis. 

68:661-664.

Bailey, Robert G. 1996. Ecosystem Geography. New York: 

Springer. 90 p.

Bailey, Robert G. 1995. Description of the ecoregions of the 

United States (2nd ed.). Misc. Pub. No. 1391, Map scale 

1:7,500,000. USDA Forest Service. 108pp.

Bailey, Robert G., Peter E. Avers, Thomas King and W. Henry 

McNab. 1994. Ecoregions and Subregions of the United 

States. USDA Forest Service. Map.

De’ath, G., and K.E. Frabricus. 2000. Classification and regression trees: a powerful yet simple technique for ecological 

data analysis. Ecology, 81, 3178-3192.

Efron, B., R.J. Tibshirani. 1993. An introduction to the bootstrap. Chapman and Hall: New York.
778 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Environmental Services Resources Inc. (ESRI). 1992-2000. 

ArcView GIS 3.2a. Redlands, CA, USA.

ERDAS, Inc. ERDAS Imagine V8.5. 2001. Atlanta Georgia

Felicisimo, A.M., E. Frances, J.M. Fernandez, A. GonzalezDiez, and J. Varas. 2002. Modeling the Potential Distribution 

of Forests with a GIS. Photogrammetric Engineering & 

Remote Sensing 68(5) 455-461.

Friedl, MA and CE Brodley 1997. Decision tree classification 

of land cover from remotely sensed data, Remote Sensing 

of Environment, 61:399-409.

Isaaks, E.H., and R.M. Srivastava. 1989. An Introduction to 

Applied Geostatistics. Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Joy, S.M. 2002. Modeling forest structure on the Kaibab 

National Forest in Arizona. Chapter 2. In: Northern goshawk habitat on the Kaibab National Forest in Arizona: 

factors affecting nest locations and territory quality. Ph.D. 

Dissertation, Colorado State University, Fort Collins. 

Joy, S.M., R.M. Reich, and R.T. Reynolds. 2003. A non-parametric, supervised classification of vegetation types on the 

Kaibab National Forest using decision trees. International 

Journal of Remote Sensing 24(9):1835-1852.

Juzwik, J. 2000. An Oak Wilt Primer. The Journal of the 

International Oak Society 11:14-20.

Kelly, M. and R.K. Meentemeyer. 2002. Landscape Dynamics 

of the Spread of Sudden Oak Death, Photogrammetric 

Engineering and Remote Sensing. 68(10)1001-1011.

MathSoft, 1999. S-PLUS 2000: Modern Statistics and Advanced 

Graphics; Guide to Statistics, volume 1, 369-401.

McNab H.W. 1989. Terrain shape index: Quantifying Effect 

of Minor Landforms on Tree Height. Forest Science. 

35(1):91-104.

Michaelson, J., Schmiel, D.S., Friedal, M.A., Davis, F.W., and 

Dubayah, R.O., 1994. Regression tree analysis of satellite 

and terrain data to guide vegetation sampling and surveys. 

Journal of Vegetation Sciences, 5, 673-686

MNDNR, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources 

Division of Forestry. 1999. Ecological Subsections of 

Minnesota. [System ecssbne2]. http://deli.dnr.state.mn.us/

metadata/full/ecssbne2.html. (August 27, 2003).

MNDNR, Minnesota Department of Natural Resources 

Division of Forestry - MIS Bureau. 2000. Land Type 

Associations of Minnesota. [System ecsltpy2]. http://deli.

dnr.state.mn.us/metadata/full/ecsltpy2.html. (August 27, 

2003).

O’Brien, J.G., M.E. Mielke, D. Starky, J Juzwik. 2003. How 

to Identify, Prevent, and Control Oak Wilt. USDA Forest 

Service, Northeastern Area State and Private Forestry. 

NA-PR-03-00. http://www.na.fs.fed.us/spfo/pubs/howtos/

ht_oakwilt/toc.htm. (August 28, 2003).

Reich, R. M., J. E. Lundquist, V.A. Bravo. 2004. Spatial 

models for estimating fuel loads in the Black Hills, South 

Dakota, USA. International Journal of Wildland Fire, 13, 

119-129.

U.S. Census Bureau. 2003. State and County QuickFacts: 

Anoka County, Minnesota. http://quickfacts.census.gov/

qfd/states/27/27003.html. (November 2003).

USDA Forest Service Diseases of Trees in the Great Plains. 

1986. USDA Forest Service Pub RM-129.

USDA Forest Service, Forest Health Protection, Forest Health 

Technology Enterprise Team (FHTET). Spatial Statistics: 

Spatial data creation and collection. http://www.fs.fed.

us/foresthealth/technology/spatialstatistics/. (November, 

2003)

Wright, H.E. Jr. 1972. Physiography of Minnesota in Geology 

of Minnesota. Eds P.K. Sims and G.B> Morey. St. Paul, 

Minnesota Geological Survey. Pp 561-78.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 779

Introduction

Web services represent one of the latest and very exciting online technologies. They are based on a uniform 

and widely accessible interface, and use solutions that 

are implemented using traditional middleware platforms. 

(Vasudevan 2001) There are two different ways how they 

are generally introduced. One assumes that web services 

provide an overall solution to all existing problems by 

integrating different solutions, programming languages, 

applications, and software. This can be really confusing 

and disseminates false understanding about the true 

nature and the real opportunities what web services can 

represent. The other approach is highly technical, uses 

acronyms like .NET, J2EE, XML, WSDL, WSI, SOAP, 

ebXML, UDDI, JAX-RPC, JAXM, XAML, BEEP 

etc., and juggles with them as given and apparently 

well-known expressions without really explaining their 

meaning, content, and relationships. This paper takes a 

middle road, and provides an introduction of web services 

somewhere between these two approaches. It will use 

some technical terms with detailed explanations, refers 

to some of the most important aspects of web services 

focusing on general business applications, and drafts 

some new potential areas for service integration.

What is a Web Service?

There are several definitions for web services that 

emphasize different aspects, and approach the idea 

from different perspectives. The first introduction using 

a simple, general explanation can be “A web services 

is any service that is available over the Internet, uses 

a standardized XML messaging system, and is not tied 

to any operating system or programming language.” 

(Cerami 2002) An IBM tutorial provides a more functional description: “Web services are a new breed of Web 

application. They are self-contained, self-describing, 

modular applications that can be published, located, and 

invoked across the Web. Web services perform functions 

that can be anything from simple requests to complicated 

business processes. A sample Web service might provide 

stock quotes or process credit card transactions. Once a 

Web service is deployed, other applications (and other 

Web services) can discover and invoke the deployed 

service.” (IBM developerWorks 2003) For development 

purposes the most comprehensive definition comes 

from the World Wide Web Consortium: “A Web service 

is a software system designed to support interoperable 

machine-to-machine interaction over a network. It has 

an interface described in a machine-process-able format 

(specifically WSDL). Other systems interact with the 

Web service in a manner prescribed by its description 

using SOAP messages, typically conveyed using HTTP 

with an XML serialization in conjunction with other 

Web-related standards.” (W3C Working Group 2004) 

Web services can also be considered as a new architectural paradigm for shared and reusable applications. 

They are solutions that apply industry-wide standards, 

interfaces, and protocols (Chatterjee & Webber 2004). 

Using existing solutions, servers and protocols web 

service developers can implement application integration projects, consolidate development efforts, reduce 

Web Services—A Buzz Word with Potentials

János T Füstös

Abstract—The simplest definition of a web service is an application that provides a 

web API. The web API exposes the functionality of the solution to other applications. 

The web API relies on other Internet-based technologies to manage communications. 

The resulting web services are pervasive, vendor-independent, language-neutral, and 

very low-cost. The main purpose of a web API is to enable application integration, and 

bring providers (developers) and requestors (users) together. More specifically, web 

services allow integration of heterogeneous applications. With solutions in place agents 

and other applications can connect to the service, and use the predefined processes. 

A centralized depository keeps track of the available functions and services, and with 

intelligent recognition and discovery semantics dynamic solutions can be created. 

Standardized description, self-describing structure, and discoverable providers make it 

easier to use existing solutions in new services and setups. In a long term it also offers 

the promise of the automated web.
780 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

redundant applications; in work-flow development 

web services can help to implement a general-purpose 

integration platform for application systems; and they 

can make it easier for partners to do business based on 

similar solutions.

Web Service System 

Architecture

Web services are built on the top of the HyperText 

Transfer Protocol. The eXtensible Markup Language 

provides the portability of solutions between different operating systems, programming languages, and 

standards. XML acts as a meta-language that allows 

description of complex structures and also assures interoperability between applications, between functional 

parts of services, and between servers and clients requesting services. Solutions that can be developed in 

any programming language handling any kind of data 

resources will use XML when communicating with 

other applications. These applications can provide 

functionality (e.g. common calculations), can request 

or deliver data (e.g. data stream, map, sound), or can 

represent building blocks of business processes, for 

example(payment operation).

Players and Their Roles

It seems that nearly every hardware and software 

vendor is touting a Web services strategy. The motivation 

behind Web services is integration: managers consistently 

list application integration as one of the top three technology issues facing businesses. The gained competitive 

advantages are two-folded: from a tactical perspective, 

application integration improves operational efficiency, 

resulting in reduced costs; from a strategic perspective, 

application integration enables better access to information resulting in better decisions. Unfortunately, it is 

very hard to integrate heterogeneous systems. The issue 

becomes much more challenging when a business tries to 

integrate its systems with those of its partners, suppliers, 

and customers. Web services using their generalized solutions and standardized protocols can contribute to these 

efforts. The integration and cooperation efforts can be 

approached in general terms when looking at the setup 

and construct of web services. There are three major roles 

in the web service architecture:

Service provider—Web service providers create, define 

and develop web services, and then publish them with 

access information in service repositories or make them 

available to web service requestors directly. Originally 

the services were:

Service requestor—Web service requestors perform a 

find operation to locate desired services made available 

by web service providers and then request those services 

from either web service registries or the publishers directly. Once the service has been located, web service 

requestors can then bind to those services to their applications and use their functions.

Service registry—Web service registries serve as 

centralized directories and repositories for web services 

defined and published by web service providers. The 

discovery framework offers APIs that allow the client to 

access services conforming to the various specifications. 

Service discovery is accessible to client applications, as 

well as to other parts of the architecture.

Service Layers

The web service protocol stack currently has four main 

layers. Like with other protocol stacks there is a close 

connection between the layers, and each of them has a 

different role. The stack is still evolving. Depending on 

specific solutions and requirements, other technologies 

might be added that are not required for all services but 

deliver additional solutions when needed (for example, 

authentication, certifications, or registration).

Transport—Web services are generally built on top 

of HTTP. Because web browsers can handle several additional protocols, data transport can be implemented by 

using FTP (file transfer), SMTP (mail), and also some 

newer solutions like BEEP (simultaneous and independent exchange of both textual and binary messages) or 

instant messaging.

Messaging—Extensible Markup Language (XML) is 

the lingua franca of web services. Using its own definitions (by implementing name spaces), and individualized 

data structures (which can be highly structured and 

complex) described in schemas, XML delivers a flexible 

way for data exchange that is independent from operating systems, programming languages, and data handling 

solutions. There are parsers, editors, and validators available on every platform for XML development. There are 

two different solutions how programs and processes can 

communicate with each other: RPC and SOAP.

Remote Procedure Call (RPC also called XML-RPC) 

is using the POST method of the HTTP protocol. Both 

requests and responses travel in XML format, and arrive 

in the body of the messages.

The Simple Object Access Protocol (SOAP) defines 

another method for programs running in one kind of 

operating system to communicate with programs in the 

same or another kind of operating systems by using HTTP 

and XML for information exchange. SOAP specifies 

how to encode an HTTP header and an XML file so that 

programs in one computer can call programs in another 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 781

computer, and pass information. It also specifies how the 

called programs can return responses.

Description—Web Service Description Language 

(WSDL) creates a technology that enables services to 

publish their interfaces. It specifies the syntax, vocabulary, and the controls for publishing web services. It 

defines the input and output operations, ports that are 

involved, includes information about data, data types, 

location of the service, and also how the information exchange can be bounded to a specific transfer 

protocol. WSDL is using XML to specify an abstract 

description of network service operations. Combined 

with concrete network protocol and message format 

they define an endpoint for data and service communication.

Discovery—Universal Description, Discovery, and 

Integration (UDDI) plays a key role in discovery services. 

It describes and provides a general solution for clients 

to dynamically find web services. Using a common interface, requestors can dynamically connect to services 

provided by external partners. A UDDI discovery registry 

can be thought of as a clearing house for business applications. The registry has two kinds of clients: businesses 

that want to publish and provide services, and clients who 

want to obtain services of a certain kind and invoke them 

as integrated parts of their solutions.

Data delivered by the discovery layer can be divided 

into three main categories:

White pages: general information of a given business 

such as the name, address, telephone number, and 

other contact information.

Yellow pages: general classification data that categorizes either the business, or the delivered service. 

This is based on existing (non-electronic) standards. 

Data may include industry, service description, and 

product codes.

Green pages: technical information about the Web 

services provided by a given business, pointer to 

specification description, and information about how 

to invoke the service.

Solutions

There are several different implementations of web 

services and architecture. The existing solutions can be 

categorized as message-, policy-, resource-, or service 

oriented models depending on what is in the focus of the 

provided service architecture.

The Message Oriented Model looks at the ways how 

services are offered to agents, what are the structural parts 

of the messages, how are they delivered by the senders 

•

•

•

to the receivers. It also looks at delivery policies and 

covers reliability issues.

The Policy Oriented Model focuses on actions and 

states that are allowed in the setup for software agents, 

individuals working with the system, or for organizations 

that are part of the integrated solution.

The Resource Oriented Model looks at resources as 

main elements of the architecture. It focuses on attributes 

like ownership, location, policies that are related to the 

resources. In this context the role of a resource (whether 

it was provided or requested) plays only a secondary 

role.

In the Service Oriented Model the service and related 

actions are in the middle, and the other elements are 

built around them. The role of the players (providers or 

requestors) defines the connections and relationships to 

other services. This model will connect systems together 

at both the information and service levels (actually builds 

on top of the message oriented model), and includes 

solutions that provide quality of service and security. 

(Linthicum 2004).

Examples

Software vendors offer web service solutions and 

frameworks that allow developers and users to create 

applications.

OASIS is a non-profit consortium that is coordinating 

the global development and adoption of e-business 

standards. Through the member organizations that are 

working together in technical committees developing 

recommendations and standard it is promoting open, 

scalable, and language neutral solutions.

Oracle offers J2EE web service solutions which use 

JAX-RPC for remote connection. With additional 

Java-based elements (JCA Java connectors, Java messaging, standard beans) businesses can extend their 

ERP systems, and create connections between marketleader solutions like SAP, PeopleSoft, and Siebel.

HP developed the first commercial implementation 

of a proposed Business Transaction Protocol. Their 

Web Services Transactioning system supports both 

B2B and B2C relationships.

Sun Microsystems is one of the major developers of 

web service components and development tools. Their 

Java APIs, J2EE platform, server-side solutions, and 

enterprise java beans are highly flexible, scalable, 

and offer wide range of possibilities and options for 

development and integration.

Microsoft supports web service development through 

their .NET environment. The available programming 

•

•

•

•

•
782 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

tools support several APIs, and rely on different server 

technologies.

IBM integrated several web service technologies 

and offers developing tools with their WebSphere 

application server. The available solutions support 

development of J2EE applications, publishing and 

deploying web services in both an extranet and intranet 

environment.

ColdFusion MX from Macromedia can act as a 

registry, can consume, and also produce (offer) web 

services. The building blocks are using ColdFusion 

components.

BEA Systems, IBM, Microsoft, SAP, and Sun are 

working together on a joint proposal to the World 

Wide Web Consortium that will standardize web 

services addressing. With that solution developers 

can simplify messaging services, and it will be easier 

for them to identify and exchange data and services 

between multiple end points.

Esri is one of the major developers of map web service products. Their latest WMS solution integrates 

business data delivery and analytical capabilities with 

geographical services.

The fact that Microsoft came out with their MapPoint 

web service solution indicates that web-based map 

services might play an important business role in the 

close future.

Open GIS Consortium is very active in developing 

map service specifications for the web. Their Context 

Document Specification, Web Feature Services, and 

Web Coverage Services proposals are under review 

and discussion, and will possibly result in OpenGIS 

standards.

XMethod (www.xmethods.com), UserLand (www.

xml-rpc.com), OGC (www.opengeospatial.org), 

OASIS (www.oasis-open.org), and Microsoft (msdn.

microsoft.com/webservices) have lists of publicly 

available web services and solutions.

Conclusion

Web services offer standardized solutions for integrated and distributed environments. They emphasize 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

interoperability, platform independence, and support 

implementations in different operating systems and 

programming languages. These technologies are being 

standardized by W3C and OASIS. Another organization, 

WS-I, is defining additional guidelines for Web services 

interoperability. Companies like Sun, Hewlett-Packard, 

ebPML are working on additional functions to extend 

web services with security layers, authentication options, 

choreography and coordination languages, and business 

languages. According to new research from The Yankee 

Group some 70 percent of new IT spending is earmarked 

for integration technologies at the edge of the enterprise. 

“With the ongoing development of Web services code 

for workflow, messaging, e-commerce and security 

standards, enterprises are ready to create service-oriented 

architectures for software vendors to build next-generation applications ...” (The Yankee Group 2004)

References

Cerami, Ethan. 2002. Web Services Essentials. Sebastopol, 

CA: O’Reilly Associates.

Chatterjee, Sandeep; Webber, James. 2004. Developing 

Enterprise Web Services: An Architect’s Guide. Upper 

Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall PTR, HP Professional 

Books.

IBM developerWorks. 2003. Web services - The Web’s next 

revolution. http://www6.software.ibm.com/developerworks/education/wsbasics/wsbasics-ltr.pdf.

Linthicum, Dave. 2004. Extending Your SOA for Intercompany 

Integration. Web Services Journal. 4(6): 12-15.

Manes, Ann Thomas. 2003. Web Services: A Manager’s Guide. 

Upper Saddle River, NJ: Pearson Education.

Ray, Randy J.; Kulchenko, Pavel. 2002. Programming 

Web Services with Perl. Sebastopol, CA: O’Reilly 

Associates.

The Yankee Group. 2004. Web services technologies gain 

wider acceptance; majority of the mid market has plans to 

deploy in the next 12 months. 2004 U.S. Enterprise Web 

Services Survey. http://www.yankeegroup.com/public/

products/research_note.jsp?ID=11945.

Vasudevan, Venu. 2001. A Web Services Primer. http://webservices.xml.com/lpt/a/ws/2001/04/04/webservices/index.

html.

W3C Working Group. 2004. Web Services Architecture. Note 

11 February 2004. http://www.w3.org/TR/2004/NOTE-wsarch-20040211
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 783

Introduction

High spatial resolution digital imagery holds 

promise for extracting forest canopy structure information, including delineation of individual tree crowns 

(Brandtberg, 1997), canopy closure, stem density, species composition and crown classification (Gerylo and 

others 1998; Sheng and others 2001). However, to date, 

forest inventory and canopy structure information is 

still almost exclusively derived from aerial photographs 

(Wulder and others 2002) via manual interpretation, a 

process known to be time consuming, labor intensive, 

and error-prone (Biging and others 1991). This is likely 

due to the absence of examples of methodologies that 

operate on high resolution imagery and are capable of 

reliably assessing forest canopy structure variables in 

a variety of forest conditions. The handful of studies 

that have successfully used such imagery in forest 

inventory parameter estimation operated on a single 

stand, or a very limited number of, typically coniferous, stands. Spatially extended investigations have been 

hindered by logistic concerns related to the acquisition 

of field information (Gong and others 1999), imagery 

idiosyncrasies (variable brightness regimes, registration 

issues) (Mikkola and Pellikka 2002), and absence of 

process automation paradigms (McGraw and others 

1998). Hence, little is known about whether high spatial 

resolution imagery can be used to reliably predict forest 

structure attributes for stands different from those used 

for methodology.

The USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and 

Analysis (FIA) program is perhaps the only effort with 

the knowledge, experience, infrastructure, and demonstrated capability to realistically support investigations 

that require spatially explicit forest inventory information 

over a variety of cover types, ecological conditions, and 

ownership regimes at the national level. However, in its 

current configuration, the FIA program assesses only 

some of the key aspect of canopy structure: height, stem 

location relative crown position with dominance class for 

each tree. Two other variables, canopy closure at the plot 

level and individual tree crown size, usually expressed 

as horizontal crown width (or diameter), known to be 

important inputs to forest models (Sprinz and Burkhart, 

1987; Deutschman and others 1997; Trichon, 2001) 

and critical in modeling forest fires (Keane and others 

1999) remain unknown. Reliable estimation of these two 

variables, along with identification of individual trees, 

(both considered prerequisites for a complete description 

of forest stand canopy structure) from high resolution 

digital imagery analysis would complement the FIAcollected data, and could be widely applied to a variety 

of forest conditions.

Unlike coarse resolution imagery where each pixel 

comprises the composite reflectance of many trees, in 

high spatial resolution digital imagery of forested landscapes each tree crown is represented by multiple pixels. 

Forest Stand Canopy Structure Attribute Estimation from 

High Resolution Digital Airborne Imagery

Demetrios Gatziolis, Research Forester, USDA Forest Service, PNW Research Station, 

USDA-FS, Portland, OR

Abstract—A study of forest stand canopy variable assessment using digital, airborne, 

multispectral imagery is presented. Variable estimation involves stem density, canopy 

closure, and mean crown diameter, and it is based on quantification of spatial autocorrelation among pixel digital numbers (DN) using variogram analysis and an alternative, 

non-parametric approach known as slope-break analysis. Variable estimation proceeds 

from identification of tree tops. Variable accuracy assessment is obtained via value 

comparison with a spatially precise set of 34 Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) design 

plots installed in five cover types common in the Midwest region. Results show that 

slope-break-based variable estimates are superior to those obtained using variograms. 

Estimated root mean square errors for the former average at the plot level were 6.5 

percent for stem density, 3.5 percent for canopy closure, and 2.5 percent for mean 

crown diameter. These error rates are equivalent, if not superior to (lower than), those 

obtained via traditional forest stand cruising by experienced personnel. The approach 

benefits from parsimonious parameterization and is amenable to automation.
784 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Some of them correspond to the sunlit portion of tree 

crowns; others represent crown portions in shadow. View 

and illumination angle, tree geometry, foliage orientation 

and bidirectional reflectance operate synergistically to result in a variation of radiance, represented by pixel digital 

numbers (DN), at different locations within an individual 

crown (Leckie and others 1992). Spectral DN values also 

vary as a function of the tree crown depth and reach a 

maximum (highest reflectance) near the crown center, 

diminishing as distance from crown center increases) (Li 

and Strahler, 1992). Hence, individual trees may be discerned in high resolution imagery as localized regions of 

DN characterized by higher values in the center, or close 

to the center, of the region and progressively lower DN 

values towards the region’s periphery. The identification 

and descriptive characterization of such regions in the 

imagery, and, therefore, the identification of individual 

tree crowns and their attributes (e.g., distance between 

crowns), can potentially be accomplished by quantifying the spatial autocorrelation present in the imagery, 

or, equivalently, the maximum distance at which pixels 

exhibit DN value correlation.

The objective of this study was to investigate whether 

forest stand canopy structure variable estimates (stem 

density, average crown diameter, canopy closure) could 

be obtained reliably via pixel DN spatial autocorrelation 

structure analysis. The investigation was performed on 

five cover types common to the Great Lakes region using 

a detailed set of field observations that conform to the 

current FIA field data collection protocol from multiple, 

non-adjacent stands.

Methods

The two study sites in Michigan’s Grand Traverse 

and Wexford Counties, were about 10 km apart: Site 

I’s 8,805 hectares centered at 48o38’N, 85o35’W and 

Site II’s 12,626 hectares centered at 44o29’N, 85o32’W. 

Both sites are flat and contain a wide variety of forest 

cover types, including most of those found in Michigan’s 

northern lower peninsula: 1. aspen [big tooth (Populus 

grandidentata) and quaking (Populus tremuloides) aspen], 2. northern hardwoods [mainly sugar maple (Acer 

saccharum), red maple (Acer rubrum), American beech 

(Fagus americana), black cherry (Prunus serotina), 

basswood (Tilia americana) and white ash (Fraxinus 

americana)], 3. oak [white (Quercus alba) and red 

(Quercus rubra) oak], 4. natural pine [mainly white pine 

(Pinus strobus)], and 5. pine plantations [mainly red pine 

(Pinus resinosa)].

Imagery was acquired on August 11, 1999, using the 

Digital Airborne Imaging System (DAIS [Space Imaging, 

1999]). The 16-bit, four-band images over the visible and 

near infrared (NIR) part of the electromagnetic spectrum 

was acquired by frame (digital array) cameras equipped 

with appropriate band-specific filters on a 2x2 arrangement. Nominal resolution ranged from 0.890 to 0.926m 

and flight height averaged 2000m above ground level.

A total of 34 plots, (16 at site I and 18 at site II), were 

established in five forest cover types that had a minimum 

of 60 percent canopy closure. Plots were situated on flat 

ground, and within the interior of homogeneous stands. 

Stand homogeneity was evaluated with field inspections. 

Field data was collected in the summer of 2000, using a 

protocol patterned on the National FIA plot design (fig. 

1). To ensure an adequate sample of trees in each subplot, 

subplot radius was increased from the standard 7.32m 

to between 10 and 15m, depending on the mean tree 

stem diameter for the plot. Canopy structure variables, 

including the horizontal extent of individual tree crowns 

as observed from the ground, and stem locations were 

assessed. All spatial and tabular data on tree crowns and 

stem locations were organized as Geographic Information 

System layers transformed into the coordinate system of 

the plot’s corresponding DAIS image.

The derivation of canopy structure variables followed 

a four step procedure (fig. 2). Initially, for each image 

frame containing a plot, spatially distributed estimates of 

spectral autocorrelations were computed for each pixel 

via variogram analysis (Curran and Atkinson, 1998) and a 

non-parametric approach known as slope-break analysis 

(Wulder and others 2000). The latter is described below. 

In the second step, often referred to as local maximum 

filtering (LMF), the distributed autocorrelation estimates obtained by using the variogram and slope break 

analyses, here after referred to as variogram range and 

slope break length respectively, were used to determine 

the size of a kernel (moving window) passed over the 

pixels representing a plot. At each instance of the moving 

window, the pixel with the highest DN was identified as a 

tree top. Subsequently, the number of identified tree tops 

was used as an estimate of stem density for the plot. In 

the third step, the variogram range and slope break length 

identified in step one for each pixel identified as a tree top 

in step two were used to delineate the tree crown around 

each of the tree top pixels. Because variogram analysis 

produces omnidirectional imagery autocorrelation estimates, the tree crowns delineated using variograms 

were circular. The directional autocorrelation estimates 

produced using the slope break approach, delineated 

crowns that, in general, approximated ellipsoids. In the 

final step, the overlay of all crowns produced estimates of 

plot canopy closure and mean crown size. The estimates 

of stem density, canopy closure and crown size were then 

compared to those obtained with field measurements.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 785

Although all imagery bands were initially considered for the estimation of canopy structure parameters, 

preliminary investigations showed that the use of the 

blue band produced results consistently inferior to those 

obtained by using the remaining bands. This finding was 

attributed to the substantial scattering of sunlight at the 

blue wavelength, and, hence, diffuse canopy illumination, which results in reduction of imagery contrast 

and an overestimation of imagery spatial autocorrelation over forested landscapes (Gatziolis, 2003). Given 

the similarity of canopy structure parameter estimates 

obtained by using the green, red, and NIR bands on a 

selected subset of plots and in the interest of reducing the 

computational and processing load, only the NIR band 

was used further.

Slope break-based estimates of local image autocorrelation were obtained by relaxing the parametric structure 

of the variogram. For each pixel in the imagery, an 

omnidirectional set of transects was analyzed to assess 

the distance (in whole pixel increments) at which a minimum DN was encountered. Slope breaks could also be 

described as the first inflection point in the gradient of reflectance or brightness along a transect. Although a large 

number of transects can be considered, in practice, slope 

breaks are computed along the eight cardinal directions. 

The extent of spatial autocorrelation or, equivalently, the 

slope break length, was computed as the average distance 

from the center of the processed pixel to the inflection 

points along all transects. The standard slope breaks 

algorithm introduced by Wulder et al. (2000) was modified in this study and furnished with a set of heuristics, 

which were adaptive to the local brightness conditions 

Figure 1. a. Location of the study 

area, and b. pictorial depiction 

of the Forest Inventory and 

Analysis plot design used for the 

collection of field observations of 

canopy structure.

Figure 2. Flow chart of the procedures employed in the 

estimation of canopy structure parameters from high 

resolution digital imagery and assessment of their accuracy 

against field observations.
786 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

(DN along the processed transect) and were designed 

to prevent the extension of the transect inflection point 

beyond the edge of a crown towards shaded canopy 

openings. Local imagery autocorrelation estimates via 

slope breaks offered substantial improvement in computation efficiency when compared to those obtained via 

variogram analysis. Because, however, fewer pixels were 

engaged in the computation of slope breaks, the resulting 

autocorrelation estimates were likely more susceptible 

to bias introduced by random noise embedded in pixel 

DNs (Pouliot and others 2002).

Results and Discussion

Variogram ranges and slope break lengths computed 

for a large number of pixels representing tree crowns 

showed the former to vary substantially less than the 

latter. For all 136 subplots, the mean variogram range 

exceeded the mean slope break length. Often though, the 

variogram range computed for a particular pixel would 

be shorter than its slope break equivalent measure, particularly for pixels positioned at or near the center of 

the sunlit portion of a large crown. Slope break lengths 

computed for transects parallel to the solar plane and extending through canopy openings were sometimes shorter 

for pixels situated on sunward crown portions than those 

for crown portions facing away from the sun. Such instances occurred sporadically in northern hardwoods and 

oak subplots and rarely in the other cover types.

Strong linear relationships were found between 

predicted and observed plot stem densities for both 

variogram and slope break methods (table 1). Linear 

regression models developed by fitting image-processing-derived canopy structure variables onto variable 

estimates obtained from field observations exhibited 

regression slope coefficients always less than 1, with the 

exception of canopy closure estimated using variograms 

for which the regression slope coefficient was 1.078. 

This observation suggests LMF image processing, in 

general, would tend to overestimate stem density and 

mean crown size for low density stands and/or those 

composed of small diameter crowns, and underestimate 

them in high stem density or large crown forest stands. 

Unlike stem density and crown diameter, the estimation 

bias appeared to be analysis-method specific, with variograms underestimating the canopy closure of stands 

containing openings and slope breaks overestimating it. 

The estimation bias patterns are evident when prediction 

errors are plotted against the corresponding observed 

values (figs. 3 to 5). Irrespective of analysis method, 

densities at approximately the 350 stem/ha level, and 

mean crown diameter of 5m, yielded minimal or no estimation bias. Variogram-derived stem density exhibited, 

in regard to observed density, root mean square errors 

(RMSE) approximately two times larger than the slope 

break-derived stem densities (table 2). Variograms and 

slope breaks appeared to perform equally well in the assessment of crown closure with RMSE of only about 3.5 

percent. Finally, slope breaks emerged as crown diameter 

predictors superior to variograms with an RMSE for the 

former only about 1/3 of that for the later (2.5 and 6.9 

percent respectively, table 2).

Several oak and northern hardwood subplots in this 

study contained large, mature trees with crowns of 

complex morphology and often two or more reflectance 

maxima, and several canopy openings. These subplots 

sometimes had crowns of similar size and uniform distribution and sometimes had crowns of variable size and 

distribution. Further stand structure complexities were 

introduced by tree tops of shorter codominant trees positioned at the edge of larger adjacent crowns with which 

they formed composite crowns. Individual tree crowns in 

such instances were sometimes difficult to discern even 

with field inspection. In the presence of large-crown trees, 

and uniform crown and canopy opening size distribution, 

Table 1. Parameter values of linear regression models constructed by fitting canopy structure estimates generated via local-maximumfiltering-based image processing to corresponding estimates derived from field observations in 34 FIA-design plots.

 Observed Values

LMF Prediction Method R2 Slope Intercept Range Mean St.Dev.

Stem Density (trees / ha) Variograms 0.986 0.741* 91.81* 180 – 707 449.2 164.2

Slope Breaks 0.996 0.864* 44.70*

Canopy Closure

(percent) Variograms 0.941 1.098* -7.70* 66.0 – 98.8 83.9 10.3

Slope Breaks 0.930 0.817* 15.30*

Mean Crown Diameter

(m) Variograms 0.942 0.700* 1.58* 4.00 – 7.54 5.1 1.0

Slope Breaks 0.990 0.921* 0.42*

*

 Significant at α = 0.01
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 787

the slope break-based and variogram-based methods 

performed equivalently in stem density prediction. By 

contrast, the presence of crown size variability or variable-sized canopy openings resulted in better accuracy 

for slope break-derived predictions of stem density, 

thereby corroborating that slope breaks are capable of 

adjusting well to local stand structure conditions. Low 

levels of variability in canopy openings and crown sizes 

precluded a reliable assessment of those canopy structure 

Figure 3. Plot stem density discrepancies between values 

obtained by using local-maximum-filtering-based image 

processing and corresponding field measurements.

Figure 4. Plot canopy closure discrepancies between values 

obtained by using local-maximum-filtering-based image 

processing and corresponding field measurements.

conditions on stem density predictions for the other three 

cover types.

Errors of commission in identifying trees due to 

multiple tree crown maxima and corresponding tree 

tops identified using variograms in the presence of 

large northern hardwoods and oak trees produced mean 

crown diameter underestimation proportional to crown 

size but appeared to only minimally affect the accuracy 

of canopy closure predictions. Because it requires only 

1 out of 10 trees with average crown diameter of 10m 

to be mistakenly identified as two separate stems in a 

subplot for an 8 percent reduction in subplot mean crown 

diameter value to occur, crown diameter predictions in 

large tree crown stands were more susceptible to errors 

of tree commission than of omission.

Stem density was underestimated for most of the 

natural pine and all of the red pine plantation and aspen 

subplots largely because the presence of small crowns 

increased omission error rates. Errors of omission would 

often occur where most of the sun-facing crown of a 

codominant tree was shadowed by adjacent dominant 

trees, resulting in a lower brightness value for the top 

of that tree.

A special case of variogram range-based stem density overestimation could arise in stands in which tree 

arrangement follows systematic and anisotropic patterns such as in red pine plantations with past thinning 

operations restricted along plantation rows. In thinned 

red pine plantation stands, the reduced variability in 

canopy reflectance along planting rows often resulted in 

variogram ranges that exceed the planting space between 

rows by 50 percent or more, particularly for planting row 
788 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

orientation in the east-west direction. Variogram range 

overestimation was then translated into artificially large 

moving windows, and ultimately tree omission errors. 

Such canopy structure conditions would also promote 

overestimation of canopy closure and crown diameter, 

because the stand canopy portion actually occupied by 

omitted trees would be typically assigned during the 

crown delineation process to adjacent trees along the 

rows, thus inflating crown diameter, while rarely predicting canopy openings.

The imposition of heuristic rules on slope break 

computations was intended to avoid substantial overestimation of LMF window sizes, and canopy closure and 

mean crown diameter predictions. Without the heuristics, 

canopy openings between trees would occur only as sliver 

polygons between adjoined crowns because of crown 

representation fidelity issues due to the limited number 

of directions analyzed around each identified tree top. 

The implication of these limitations on canopy structure 

variable values would likely be negligible in high canopy 

closure stands but could be substantial in the presence 

of canopy openings.

The application of these methods for canopy structure 

prediction via high resolution imagery might not be advisable for stands with medium or low canopy closure or 

where stand conditions permit direct illumination of the 

forest floor or background vegetation. In such conditions, 

grass, exposed soil, or bushes could easily be misidentified as tree tops during LMF processing, and variogram 

ranges could represent the mean diameter of canopy 

openings rather than the size of crowns. The 60 percent 

minimum canopy closure threshold imposed as a prerequisite for plot installation in this study precluded any 

occurrences of sunlit background in the plots. Although 

openings did exist and were sometimes equivalent in size 

to the crowns of dominant trees, the height of adjacent 

trees placed them in shadow. Band-ratio-based imagery 

pre-processing could potentially reduce the effect of nonvegetated, sunlit stand background on predicted canopy 

variable values.

Table 2. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) between canopy structure variable 

estimates predicted via local-maximum-filtering-based image processing 

and corresponding field measurements. Values in parentheses represent 

percent absolute error from observed values.

LMF Prediction Method RMSE

Stem Density (trees / ha) Variograms 50.67 (11.3)

Slope Breaks 29.06 (6.5)

Canopy Closure (percent) Variograms 3.00 (3.6)

Slope Breaks 2.93 (3.5)

Mean Crown Diameter (m) Variograms 0.36 (6.9)

Slope Breaks 0.13 (2.5)

Conclusion

The two forms of DN autocorrelation quantification used in this study, one parametric based 

on variogram analysis and one non-parametric 

based on a set of simple heuristic rules, have 

revealed promising potential of high spatial resolution digital imagery as a source for extraction 

of reliable forest canopy structure information. 

The few known other investigations that have 

attempted stem density predictions, primarily 

in coniferous forests, found prediction error rates that 

have rendered them and the methodologies employed 

of little utility for inventory or management purposes. 

In this study, the field acquisition of a detailed and positionally precise set of observations on stand structure 

was distributed among five deciduous and coniferous 

cover types in northern Michigan. This has provided a 

better understanding of the relationships between canopy 

characteristics and reflectance regimes embedded in 

digital imagery. The study has also developed methods 

that are capable of producing reliable predictions not 

only for forest stand density but also for canopy closure 

and mean crown diameter.

Unlike traditional investigations that rely strictly on 

the spectral properties of pixels representing tree crown 

portions to describe the horizontal structure of forest 

canopies, all analysis methodologies employed in this 

study are local in scope. As such, they are independent of 

brightness variability between image frames and bidirectional reflectance effects, issues that are known to burden 

the application of traditional spectrally-based investigations (Gatziolis, 2003). Therefore, the methods presented 

here are perhaps well-suited to determining the canopy 

structure of plots that are sparsely distributed across 

the landscape, such as those in the FIA plot allocation 

scheme. With high resolution imagery lately available 

even from satellite platforms, and in light of the projected 

reduction in acquisition cost, it is likely that certain types 

of forest inventory information at the individual tree level 

extracted from such imagery would become an integral 

part of forest management and planning.

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790 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Why Forest Inventory is Needed

Throughout the development of the United States, 

forests that cover about one-third of the land base have 

been seen as a provider of goods and services (i.e., scenic, 

subsistence, industrial, and spiritual or cultural) (Haynes, 

2003). This forest land supplies wood products, range 

land, recreation, and wildlife habitat. About 45 percent is 

public and 55 percent is privately owned (Haynes, 2003), 

(Wright and others, 2002), (USDA, 2002b). Because of 

the substantial interest in the economic, ecological, and 

sustainable basis of these forest resources, government 

agencies, industry, and others need a current and accurate 

inventory of their extent and condition (AF&PA, 1998). 

This inventory is used for substantive discussion and 

planning of forest land issues, such as “sustainability, 

national forest policy, carbon sequestration, changes in 

growth and productivity, changes in land use and demographics, ecosystem health, and economic opportunities 

in the forest sector” (Van Deusen and others, 1999). The 

Forest Inventory and Analysis program (FIA) of the 

U.S.D.A. Forest Service provides the only inventories 

broad enough in scope to serve these varying needs (Van 

Deusen, 1998).

The FIA Inventory Background, Current 

Approach, and Drawbacks

The statistical technique of double sampling became 

the foundation of the FIA forest inventory design in 

the 1950s. This technique uses remote sensing and 

ground sampling in conjunction with permanent sample 

plots for estimating forest area and volumes, growth, 

removals, and mortality (Birdsey and Schreuder, 1992). 

Currently there are 3 phases in the double sampling 

scheme: Phase 1, a relatively inexpensive land cover 

classification by Landsat Thematic Mapper or aerial 

photo plots; Phase 2, collection of detailed forest composition and condition by permanent and non-permanent 

field plots; and Phase 3, collection of expensive field 

plots from a subsample of Phase 2 plots that monitor 

indicators of forest health (Czaplewski, 1999); (USDA, 

2003). These plots are located on an interpenetrating 

design of hexagonal cells with each representing 6,000 

A New FIA-Type Strategic Inventory (NFI)

Richard A. Grotefendt, College of Forest Resources, University of Washington, Seattle, WA

Hans T. Schreuder, U.S.D.A. Retired. Formerly Mathematical Statistician USDA Rocky 

Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—New remote sensing technologies are now available to lower the cost of doing strategic surveys. A new sampling approach for the Forest Inventory and Analysis 

program (FIA) of the U.S.D.A. Forest Service is discussed involving a bi-sampling unit 

(BSU) that is composed of a field sample unit (FSU) centered within a large scale 

(1:1,000 to 1:3,000) photo sample unit (PSU) of the same size and shape. Within 

the PSU, a circular plot size is used for timber inventory and a strip plot for riparian 

buffer assessment and down woody material. On PSUs in previous studies in Alaska 

and Washington we counted or measured individual trees, tree height, crown area by 

digitizing the perimeter, plot crown closure, tree crown closure, tree branch density, 

plot area, and tree type (species and decay class). FSUs provide ground truth for PSUs 

as well as permanent and forest health plot information. Data for core FIA variables 

such as species, diameter, crown class, rotten/missing cull, and decay class may also 

be furnished by FSUs. National gross board foot volume per hectare estimates will be 

made from PSUs. Then permanent FSUs will provide growth, mortality, and defect 

factor information that are combined with the PSU estimates. Integration of PSUs with 

simultaneously collected Lidar data is used to improve tree height measurement accuracy in dense forest stands by providing local digital elevation models. Annual national 

estimates of stocking, mortality, and growth by tree species or forest type are obtained 

on a random sample chosen from a grid. Strata will be superimposed over this grid. 

The FSUs collected in the past will be incorporated in the new design which has the 

potential to result in a 50 percent reduction in cost relative to current FIA.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 791

acres and sample locations that are distributed systematically about every 3 miles (5 km) (McWilliams and 

others, 2002). Limitations of the Phase 2 and 3 field 

plots are that private landowners may deny access and 

consequently information (Czaplewski, 1998a) or plots 

may be inaccessible.

The program mission of the FIA is to meet “the 

nation’s needs for high quality information on the extent and condition of forests and forest resources in the 

U.S.” (AF&PA, 1998). The operation of FIA conflicts 

with this national mission by operating in five regional 

offices (Cost, 1996) and as of 1998 resulted in “limited 

consistency for drawing conclusions at the national level” 

(Gillespie, 1998). As of 2002 one-fourth of the country 

was delayed or excluded from the implementation strategy of the Forest Service Strategic Plan (FSSP) (Willits 

and others, 2002), (USDA, 1999). The continuation of 

this condition was favored by a majority of those present at a 2002 FIA joint band meeting in Arizona (Willits 

and others, 2002), evidently favoring regional over 

national interests. This has contributed to the inability 

to completely sample all U.S. forest land. In addition 

FIA’s role in data collection has significantly expanded 

to include forest health assessment and a vast array of 

non-timber resources, but all states are not included due 

to a 2002 and 2003 fiscal year funding shortfall (Willits 

and others, 2002).

State, federal, native, public, private, and international 

FIA data users have been demanding improved and more 

timely information on five politically sensitive issues: (1) 

timber supply, demand, and availability; (2) maintenance 

of biodiversity; (3) forest sustainability; (4) forest health; 

and (5) global climate change (AF&PA, 2001). They 

formed a panel of experts that felt that the usefulness of 

FIA was threatened by increasing inventory cycle length, 

lack of an accountable, responsive organization, and lack 

of funding. These demands for change were reflected 

in the Agriculture Research, Extension, and Education 

Reform Act of 1998 (16 USC 1642 (3)) or the Farm Bill 

of 1998 (USDA, 2001), (Smith, 2002) which specified a 

national, annual inventory and resulted in the merger of 

FIA with the USFS and EPA’s Forest Health Monitoring 

program in 1999.

The new geo-positioning systems (i.e., global positioning systems (GPS), inertial navigation systems 

(INS), and inertial measurement units (IMU)) that 

have made light detection and ranging (Lidar) (Carson 

and others, 2004) and large scale photography (LSP) 

(Schwarz and others, 1993) practical have largely been 

overlooked by FIA. They have the potential to offer 

assistance in meeting the demands of FIA stakeholders and enabling all U.S. forest land to be sampled. 

LSP provides detailed, 3D-views of forests that can be 

interpreted and measured with accuracies comparable 

to field visits (Titus and Morgan, 1985), (Megown 

and others, 2003). Past research has indicated that 

LSP and Lidar may replace and/or supplement field 

data collection of timber inventory and ecosystem 

data (Grotefendt and others, 1996), (Andersen and 

others, 2001).

A New FIA-Type Strategic Inventory 

(NFI)

We think change in an inventory setup in the USFS 

is desirable. The new LSP and Lidar technologies are 

available and not being used. Although there is significant 

pride in what has been done and in what they are doing 

within the FIA organization an entirely new strategic 

inventory may enable the national mandate to be realized 

within budget.

 Our proposed New FIA-Type Strategic Inventory 

(NFI) would incorporate large scale photography (LSP) 

as the primary sample unit with field subsampling for 

some variables, validation, and trend data. There are 

many remote sensing sources, but only LSP provides 3D 

vision and measurement comparable to field plot visits at 

less cost. Many of the FIA problems, such as excessive 

costs, landowner-imposed or dangerous access restrictions, inconsistent classification of conditions especially 

on or near boundaries, insufficient ecosystem sampling, 

and lack of timeliness, will be eliminated or reduced 

through LSP use. A grid that is one hundred times the 

current FIA grid will be superimposed over all national 

lands and territories. Available funds will determine the 

sample size collected from this grid. The current core 

and extended core FIA variables will be reduced to only 

those absolutely requisite for reporting. Generalized 

regression estimation will be used to analyze photo-field 

relationships. Annually, sampling costs have the potential to be reduced by 37 to 78 percent over the proposed 

U.S.D.A. Forest Service Strategic Plan (FSSP) (USDA, 

1999). Because of the dramatically improved flexibility, 

suddenly emerging issues can be addressed much more 

rapidly and cheaply so that an increase in demand for data 

and an expanded clientele can be expected and should 

be planned for.

Methods

The components necessary to sample the entire U.S. 

forest land area with available funds are presented in 

the methods section. The sampling locations, units, and 

size are detailed as well as examples of the variables to 

collect. Point and change estimation and analysis are 

addressed.
792 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Sample Locations

A fine grid with distances between plots of 0.5 km that 

overlays the entire U.S. land base and the current FIA 

sample locations will increase the potential sample location number by one hundredfold. This allows past FIA 

permanent plots to be re-sampled for change estimation, 

concentrated sampling for sudden changes such as storm 

or insect damage, change in sample plot design for key 

variables, and an increase in sample size if needed.

Sample Units

A primary, large scale photo sample unit (PSU) and 

a secondary field sample unit (FSU) will be used to collect timber and non-timber information. Both sample 

units have the same shape and the FSU is centered in 

the PSU. A circular plot is used for timber inventory 

and a strip plot for riparian buffer assessment and down 

woody material. Different ecological type surveys may 

have different plot shapes, but the photo and field plot 

shape will usually be the same to ensure that there is a 

one to one correspondence between visible photo and 

field measured variables.

Photo sample unit (PSU)—Navigation to PSU grid 

points will be by a camera equipped helicopter. Large 

scale photography (1:1,000 to 1:3,000) provides a large 

enough image size for measurement and interpretation 

of key field collected variables such as tree height and 

species. Metric film cameras will be used to eliminate 

the error that is introduced with non-metric cameras 

that can reach 5 percent (Reutebuch and Ahmed, 1997). 

Camera lens position and orientation provided by global 

positioning system/inertial navigation system (GPS/INS) 

(Schwarz and others, 1993) or a fixed-base camera system (Bradatsch, 1980), (Veress, 1980) will provide scale 

to enable photo measurement. Analytical stereoplotters 

or softcopy systems will be used for PSU interpretation 

and measurement. Improvement in ergonomic viewing 

and interpretation will be made. Regression estimation 

using relationships between PSU and FSU variables 

will permit efficient reporting of key parameters such 

as volume and forest type. Primary sampling by PSU 

will eliminate the majority of owner access restrictions 

or inaccessibility, avoid misclassification of condition 

classes, allow sampling of remote wilderness areas, and 

enable complete national coverage. Tree heights may be 

impossible to measure from PSU when stand densities 

preclude formation of a digital elevation model (DEM) 

due to an insufficient number of visible ground points. In 

this case extra field sample units (FSU) will be collected 

or light detection and ranging (Lidar) will be used to 

form a DEM. Circular or strip plot area will range from 

0.2 to 30.0 ha for the given overlaps, scales, and camera 

formats (for example, 70 mm, 5x5 in, and 9x9 in). The 

use of smaller format metric cameras (in other words, 

70mm or 5x5 in), that have significant cost savings over 

9x9 in format cameras, will be encouraged.

Field sample unit (FSU)—The field sample unit 

(FSU) is a subsample that provides: information for 

developing relationships with PSU measured variables; 

validation of photo measurements or interpretation; 

information obtainable only by field visits; and change 

information through repeat measurements. Change information provides growth, mortality, removal, and defect. 

PSU orthophoto prints overlaid with photo interpreted 

stem maps, GPS receivers, and smaller scale resource 

photography will facilitate navigation to the FSU and 

verification of the plot center location. The collection 

of FSU data may still be limited but less frequently due 

to landowner restrictions. Portable stereo cameras will 

collect field plot stereo views (in other words, a terrestrial 

photo sample unit) from 3 angles to enable future data 

capture of new variables without a field visit.

Selection of Sample Size

The total survey cost depends on the overhead, sample 

unit cost, and sample size. Optimum sample size is determined by either fixing the total cost or the standard 

error (Schreuder and others, 2004). Even though there has 

been a dramatic recent increase in FIA funding above the 

FY99 funding level of $37 million (pers. comm. [Rhoads, 

2003], [Schreuder, 2003]) the $82 million required by 

the U.S.D.A. Forest Service Strategic Plan still has not 

been reached (USDA, 1999). “It is unlikely there will 

be an increase in the Forest Service budget for the next 

3 to 5 years” (remark [Rey, 2003]).” Therefore, the 

number of samples taken in our new FIA-Type Strategic 

Inventory (NFI) will be limited to the available funding. 

The current United States land base that is delineated 

as forested will be used until a validated stratification 

method is employed.

The method of PSU and FSU sample location selection is as follows. Two coarse grids, each with different 

variable cell sizes, will be superimposed over the fine grid 

each year to ensure systematic and complete coverage 

(figure 1). Two cell sizes will be used that provide the 

number of PSU and FSU samples funded. The FSU grid 

will always be more coarse than the PSU grid.

NFINE = population size of fine grid points = 

36,000,000

nPSU = current annual number of PSU funded

nFSU = current annual number of FSU funded (assumed 10 percent of nPSU )

The proportion of PSU that are field sampled could 

vary due to experience (for example, even-aged 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 793

conifer stands may require fewer samples 

than old-growth stands).

NPP = population of existing permanent FIA 

field plots (EP) = 121,993 (USDA, 1999)

nPP = current annual number of EP plots 

to re-sample

Within each PSU coarse grid cell simple 

random sampling without replacement 

(SRS) will be used to form a list of the 

NFINE that fall within it. The first unsampled fine grid point in each list will become 

a PSU location and part of the nPSU. SRS 

without replacement will be used for each 

FSU coarse grid cell to form a list of the 

nPSU that fall within it. The first unsampled 

PSU location of each list becomes the FSU. 

If additional funding is provided by a stakeholder or a special event occurs requiring 

additional sampling the next unsampled 

points from the random list are chosen.

The NFI has no previous FSU for change 

estimation. Therefore a transition sample 

selection method will be followed for the 

first five years. Under this transition plan, 

the nFSU will be sorted into a random list. 

The first 50 percent of the FSU sample that 

have at least one EP plot in its cell will be 

used to select the sample nPP for re-measurement. A geographic information system 

(GIS) program will be used to locate the EP 

plot that is closest to each FSU. The FSU 

will be shifted to the EP position, a transition method of field measurement will be 

developed and used, and the PSU that was 

associated with that FSU will also be shifted 

to the EP plot location.

After the first five years, re-measured 

FSU plots will include NFI FSU plots as 

well as NPP. In the subsequent annual surveys half of the FSU are re-measured plots 

and half are newly located. This provides a 

constantly increasing field sample size for 

improvement in FSU prediction from PSU. 

Annual surveys are frequent and standard 

error of estimates will indicate survey 

reliability. If it is too low for concerned 

stakeholders this will provide justification 

for increasing the budget. Sampling PSU 

without replacement will allow more accurate area 

verification and adjustments over time; increase the probability of encountering small area ecotypes; and sample 

more riparian habitat. After other remote sensing methods 

Figure 1. Example NFI sample size selection process.
794 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

have been validated, strata may be superimposed over 

this grid.

Variables

The PSU and FSU variables collected must relate to 

the required annual reporting items such as land area, 

number of trees, and growth and the required classifications, such as forest type and diameter class (USDA, 

1999). These variables will be chosen from the current core and extended core variables in the U.S.D.A. 

Forest Service Strategic Plan (FSSP) (USDA, 1999), 

(USDA, 2002a) and will be collected by three sampling 

unit combinations: PSU only; PSU and FSU combined 

with generalized regression estimators (Schreuder and 

others, 2004); and FSU only. The final list of variables 

will be broken down by priority of collection and which 

sampling unit combination will be employed to collect 

them. Companies or environmental groups interested in 

priority 2 variables could supply funding to collect them. 

Examples of priority 1 variables are tree height from 

PSU only, photo predicted volume from PSU and FSU 

combined, and tree age from FSU only. Table 1 provides 

additional examples.

Point and Change Estimation

The variables will be used for point and change estimation, such as current volume and volume removed, 

respectively. Point estimation is made from the annual 

PSU and FSU. Change estimation is made from the 

subsample of FSU points that are randomly selected for 

re-sampling. Permanent plot information from FSU that 

were established prior to this new strategic design will 

be incorporated in these estimates so that their valuable 

change information is used.

Data Analysis

Quality control, data transformation, American 

Standard Code for Information Interchange (ASCII) file 

production and geographic information system (GIS) 

layers formation are data processing tasks that will be 

performed on PSU and FSU data. All the raw data will 

be stored in a national, common format and maintained 

on FTP sites for accessibility. User friendly programs 

written in ‘R’ will be provided that combine raw data 

into summary datasets to facilitate public user analyses 

(R, 2004). FIA staff will develop equations from PSU 

and FSU variables that estimate tree conditions, such as 

gross volume (Aldred and Sayn-Wittgenstein, 1972), 

(Grotefendt and Pickford, 1998), (Timberline, 1993). 

PSU measurements will be used to compute direct estimates (for example, crown closure equals sum of plot 

tree crown areas divided by fixed plot area). Change or 

trends will be computed from FSU plot re-measurement 

differences. Adjustment factors (AF) will be developed from FSU only variables for application to PSU 

Table 1. Example U.S.D.A. Forest Service Strategic Plan (FSSP) core and extend core variables [USDA, 1999 #295], 

[USDA, 2002 #402] forming the basis for the new FIA-Type Strategic Inventory (NFI) variables with their priority 

and sampling combinations.

Core (C) or Extended Sampling Unit 

Variable Name Core (EC) Combination Priority Code Reliability Code

Plot Number C PSU 1 1

Forest Type C PSU 1 2

Owner Group C PSU 1 OFC

Stand Structure C PSU&FSUi 1 2

Slope C PSU 2 CG

Ground Cover C FSUi 2 1

Crown Cover C PSU 1 1

Soil Erosion C FSUi 2 1

Species C PSU 1 2

Diameter at Breast Height C PSU&FSUi 1 2

Percent Rotten/Missing Cull C FSUi 1 2

Uncompacted Crown Ratio C FSUi 2 2

Site Tree Diameter C FSUi 1 1

Site Tree Total Height C FSUi 1 1

Lichen Species EC FSUi 1 2

Lichen Relative Abundance EC FSUi 1 2

Crown Diameter - Wide EC PSU 1 1

Foliage Transparency EC PSU&FSUi 2 2

NFI Priority Codes: 1 = required for annual reporting, 2 = collected if funding provided;

Method Codes: OFC = office work, CG = compute from GIS; and 

Reliability Codes: 1 = certainty, 2 = very good likelihood, 3 = maybe as shown from research.

Note: FSUi is the ith type of field plot used.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 795

estimates for items that are hidden such as understory 

shrub composition and fine woody debris. Spatial data 

will be derived from GIS algorithms (for example, distance and azimuth of trees from the plot center or to the 

nearest stream bank). Standard analyses and reports that 

are mandated, such as change detection, by the Farm Bill 

of 1998 will be major products of NFI (USDA, 2001). 

Extrapolation of the PSU and FSU data and plot characteristics (for example, volume) to national estimates 

will be based on PSU classification and the number of 

acres each sample represents until a validated method 

of stratification is proven. The use of PSU to validate 

the stratification tools of small scale aerial photos and 

satellite imagery will be studied.

Costs

The cost savings that PSU collection provides is one of 

NFI’s main advantages. An indication of this is illustrated 

by using known costs for PSU collection (Grotefendt 

and Light, 2004), (Grotefendt and Fairbanks, 1996), 

(Grotefendt and Martin, 2003) and Forest Service FSU 

cost estimates by Czaplewski (Czaplewski, 1998b). The 

cost estimate to collect, measure, interpret, and produce 

raw data files nationally is $349 per PSU. The cost estimates for the collection of one FIA plot ranged from 

$600 to $1,240 per plot. This was dependent on whether 

it was a one day plot (One-Day), a wilderness plot (WP), 

or a forest health monitoring plot (FHM). The Forest 

Service Strategic Plan (FSSP) (Gillespie, 1998) specifies a total of 15,124 field plots in the southern Pacific 

Northwest Region (i.e., Oregon, Washington, California, 

and Hawaii). If 7 percent, 10 percent, and 83 percent of 

these were FHM, WP, and One-Day plots, respectively 

with 10 percent of the total being subsampled as FSU, 

the NFI would save 37 percent over the USDA Forest 

Service strategic plan (FSSP) when overhead cost differences are not included in the comparison.

The NFI national annual total plot cost is $10,132,334 

using our PSU and Czaplewski’s FSU cost estimates with 

the same ratio of field plot types given in the southern 

Pacific Northwest Region example above. The FSSP national annual total plot cost is $45,252,000 (see tables 3 

and 4 in (USDA, 1999)). Using these two annual plot cost 

estimates without overhead NFI would save 78 percent. 

The average savings of the NFI may be over 50 percent 

based on these southern Pacific Northwest Region and 

national annual estimates.

A NFI overhead item not borne by the FSSP would 

be the additional cost of one to two million dollars for a 

research proposal to fine-tune its sampling approach. This 

research would determine: the number of FSU needed 

to calibrate PSU in different forest types; the amount of 

PSU interpretation and measurement training required; 

methods to reduce photo interpretation fatigue; and what 

kind of plots are best for calibration.

Results

These NFI methods have been partially implemented 

in Alaska and Washington for forest inventory and 

riparian buffer monitoring. Remote areas of rough topography were accessed and photographed even under 

adverse weather conditions. For forest inventory, fixed 

area PSU were collected from a random list chosen from 

a superimposed systematic grid overlaid upon 80,000 

acres. PSUs of riparian buffers along streams were collected from the western half of Washington state and 

southeast Alaska extending from Juneau to Ketchikan. 

Photo measurements were comparable to field measurements (Grotefendt and others, 1996), (Grotefendt and 

Pickford, 1998). The correlation of photo measurements 

of individual tree dimensions to tree volume in old 

growth forest predicted average plot volume to within 

10.9 percent of actual volume as determined from ground 

plots (Grotefendt and others, 1996). The absolute average 

tree height difference between photo and field clinometer 

measurements was 6.1 ft (s.d. = 4.7 ft, n=214). The absolute average difference between photo predicted and 

field measured diameter at breast height (DBH) was 2.3 

in (s.d. = 2.2, n=109) (Grotefendt and Pickford, 1998). 

These and other applications provided cost information 

and an indication of the potential of the NFI (Grotefendt 

and Light, 2004).

Discussion

The proposed new FIA-Type Strategic Inventory 

(NFI) is designed to reduce costs, increase amount and 

timeliness of information, and will promote an increased 

user base. New ecological sampling needs, such as 

riparian, are met by NFI as well as timber inventory 

requirements. Flexibility in plot size and shape ensure 

adaptability to specific variables and plot locations are 

known. Flexibility in intensity of sample size from the 

fine grid improves detection of small area ecotypes. 

Timely annual results are achievable with reduced field 

effort.

NFI is untested in a national inventory and will require 

a major change in current techniques. Nonetheless, it 

has been applied across large areas which indicate its 

potential. Exploratory research will be required to better 

understand relationships between PSU variables and desired FSU variables across a broader geographic extent. 
796 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

There also are conditions, such as dense forest stands, 

where currently a PSU may be unable to collect the 

needed information and a FSU will still be required.

The potential 50 percent field sampling cost savings 

that NFI may provide over the USDA Forest Service 

Strategic Plan (FSSP) costs make its proven methodology an attractive alternative and can be readily adapted 

to changes in funding. It is less dependent on owner 

goodwill, weather conditions, budgeting, and it has 

been applied in wilderness and remote Alaska sites. If 

catastrophic storms or suspected environmental concerns 

arise, a sample can be quickly collected and analyzed for 

the problem area. Interpretation and measurement of PSU 

can employ FSU field staff in the winter when field work 

is inefficient. This can increase employee retention and 

continuity of skilled data collectors.

Larger quantities of data, such as tree heights, can be 

collected more cost effectively. Information from PSU 

are more directly comparable to that from other remote 

sensing techniques, such as Lidar, small scale aerial photography, and satellite visible-infrared remote sensing, 

and can be used as validation for these techniques. This 

will improve reliability of area estimates. The PSU may 

be re-evaluated without field work if new questions arise, 

which is not possible with FSSP field plots.

Further research in the use of LSP with other techniques could provide potential enhancements such 

as development of Lidar or interferometric synthetic 

aperture radar (IFSAR) relationships; automation of 

individual tree assessment using LSP by Gong (Gong 

and others, 2002); and incorporation of small scale photography to automate facets of individual tree and crown 

assessments (ITC) (Gougeon and Leckie, 2003).

Acknowledgments

We wish to thank Janice K. Brewer for graphics support.

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Thousands of the world’s glaciers have seen a steady 

reduction in size over the past several decades, a trend 

that is representative of the recent warming temperatures 

of the world’s climate (fig. 1). Because of this strong 

correlation between the health of glacial systems and 

corresponding weather patterns, glaciers can provide 

a great amount of understanding towards the world’s 

changing environments (Kargel and others 2002). 

Though we cannot change these current patterns, we can 

strive for a better understanding of the causes behind the 

increases in glacial melting, hoping that we may become 

more thoroughly prepared for the changes we face in the 

future. Because of these reasons it is of great importance 

that there be created a global inventory of glacial ice that 

contains the current extent and present location of all the 

world’s numerous glacial resources. The creation of such 

a database would help us to clearly understand current 

glacial behaviors, and provide a stronger foundation for 

the future monitoring and studying of glacial activities.

The Global Land Ice Measurements from Space 

(GLIMS) project was founded by a group of researchers in the United States, most namely are Hugh H. 

Keiffer, who first conceived the project, the Principal 

Investigator, and Coordinator, Jeffrey S. Kargel of the 

USGS Astrogeology Research Program in Flagstaff, 

Arizona, and Bruce H. Raup of the National Snow and 

Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. Bruce is the lead 

technical coordinator of the data archiving processes 

needed to build the foundation of the GLIMS database 

and serve the data to the public. The NASA funded 

project’s primary goal is to provide the world with a 

complete inventory of glaciers, making the data available to the public through the collaboration of a host of 

international institutions and new developments in the 

use of Open-Source Software (www.glims.org). OpenSource GIS tools are a free, cross-platform, and efficient 

method of ensuring that GLIMS completes the objective 

of obtaining the first-ever global glacier database. The 

utilization of this technology is a fundamental aspect in 

the success of a project that has grown to encompass the 

participation and coordination of sixty-seven different 

institutions from twenty-three countries.

Each institution that is participating in the project is 

referred to as a GLIMS Regional Center (RC) and is 

responsible for the creation and analysis of glacial data 

for its associated region, a region that contain amounts of 

glacial ice and of which the RC has particular knowledge. 

The GLIMS Coordination Center at the USGS in Flagstaff 

has developed and distributed to each RC an application 

called GLIMSView, a specifically designed, free, and 

cross-platform digitizing application. GLIMSView was 

developed specifically for GLIMS, and for the purpose 

The Use of Open Source Software in the Global Land 

Ice Measurements From Space (GLIMS) Project, and the 

Relevance to Institutional Cooperation

Christopher W. Helm is a Research Assistant at the University of Colorado, Boulder, 

The National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO

Abstract—GLIMS is a NASA funded project that utilizes Open-Source Software to 

achieve its goal of creating a globally complete inventory of glaciers. The participation 

of many international institutions and the development of on-line mapping applications to provide access to glacial data have both been enhanced by Open-Source GIS 

capabilities and play a crucial role in the success of the project.

Figure 1. ASTER image showing the receding terminus of 

the Gangotri Glacier in central Asia (Image by Jesse Allen, 

Earth Observatory).
800 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

of viewing Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission and 

Reflection radiometer (ASTER) images (fig. 2) as well 

as other types of satellite imagery. Each ASTER image 

covers a sixty square kilometer region at a fifteen meter 

resolution. The ASTER Science Team, a division within 

GLIMS, has received over two-thousand ASTER images covering the world’s approximate 170,000 glaciers 

(Raup, B. H. and others 2000). It is expected that GLIMS 

will receive updated ASTER images on a yearly basis to 

be distributed for analysis by the RCs. GLIMSView allows the RCs to easily view ASTER images, from which 

the RCs digitize glacier outlines, attach GLIMS specific 

attributes, and prepare data to be exported and ingested to 

the GLIMS database. Though it is not required of the RCs 

to use GLIMSView, the software ensures that the creation 

of data is based on the same set of standards. However, 

an RC can choose to use which ever type of software it 

desires for the production of its data as long as the data 

is submitted in the proper GLIMS format. More information about ASTER images, GLIMSVIEW, GLIMS data 

attribution standards, and the GLIMS data submission 

format are available at http://www.glims.org.

The glacial data created by each RC is submitted to 

NSIDC where it’s ingested into the existing database 

of information. The database, also a form Open-Source 

Software (PostgreSQL and its spatial extension PostGIS) 

has been structured to organize incoming data into several 

tables comprising of two major types of information, 

dynamic and static. This makes it possible for data pertaining to changes in the shape and extent of the same 

glacier to be stored chronologically. Meaning that as a 

glacier changes, the database becomes updated with a 

new analyses of dynamic information, using the static 

attributes to link different sets of data with information 

that always remain the same, such as a glacier’s name 

and a glacier’s ID. The monitoring of changes in glacial 

extents on a global basis enhances the ability to study 

glacial activity in different regions on an annual basis. 

It provides a stable ground for studying the relationships 

between glaciers that are changing at different rates and 

helps to identify the reasons why these change are occurring. The data stored in the database contains a variety of 

glaciological data and contains attributes that are spatial 

in nature, in other words each record in the database can 

be visually represented by the outline of its glacier’s extent in the real world. A unique aspect of this database is 

that the Open-Source database package PostGIS allows 

spatial data types to be stored in the form of geometries 

(points, lines, and polygons), and also allows a number 

geo-processing functions to be applied to this type of 

data. These capabilities allow the GLIMS data to be integrated into existing GIS projects and analysis in a number 

of different ways. The functionality of GLIMS data being 

GIS compatible, is being accomplished through the use 

of the University of Minnesota’s MapServer, an OpenSource, on-line mapping utility.

MapServer is an Open-Source GIS tool that is distributed free of charge by the University of Minnesota. It is 

an interoperable and innovative GIS package, providing 

the capability for large amounts and types of spatial 

data to be interactively mapped over the Internet. Using 

MapServer, GLIMS will be able to export its data to 

the public, making the data easily viewed and retrieved 

by anyone who wishes to use it. MapServer operates 

based on a set of Open-Specifications designed by the 

Open GIS Consortium that detail the requirements for 

the creation of Web Feature Services (WFS). In other 

words, a WFS is a new type of interface that utilizes the 

Internet to serve GIS compatible features to the public. 

NSIDC, who is in charge of maintaining the database, 

is also designing the interface for the WFS to serve out 

the glacial data created from GLIMS. The construction 

of the WFS is currently under development and it will 

continue to grow as more data is received and the GLIMS 

database becomes more complete.

A total of three Open-Source GIS utilities are being 

used to fulfill GLIMS’ goals of a geographically complete glacier inventory. Currently the project is in the 

stage of receiving data from the different RCs and will 

continue to move toward a complete database in the coming months. The use of Open-Source Software is what 

makes the cooperation and participation of the GLIMS 

RCs possible. Without such software and capabilities the 

goals of GLIMS would not be as easily accomplished. It 

is the hope of GLIMS that glacial data will continue to 

be received and updated for many years into the future, 

creating a greater wealth of information and increasing 

our knowledge about the ways in which glaciers interact 

with the world’s climate and the effects they have on local 

Figure 2. Example of an ASTER Image showing clearly defined 

glacial extents (Image courtesy of NSIDC).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 801

environments. For a more in depth discussion of threats 

of glacier melting and the history of the GLIMS project 

please visit the GLIMS website (www.glims.org).

References

Hathaway, James. 2001. Melting Glaciers Signal Global 

Warming. Earth Observatory, Media Alerts Archive, May 

29, 2001.

Kargel, Jeffrey S., Keiffer, Hugh H., Wessels, R., Mingus, 

D., Rosenborough, K. 2002. Satellite Remote Sensing of 

Glaciers and Ice-dammed Lakes: Pragmatic Issues and Case 

Studies. June 2002.

Pellikka. P., Kajuutti, K., Koskinen, R., Jackson, M., Stotter, H., 

Haggren, H., Luukkonen, K. M., Guneriussen, T., Sharov, 

A., 2001. Development of an Operational Monitoring 

System for Glaciers - Synthesis of Earth Observation Data 

of the Past, Present and Future. Proceedings, International 

workshop on geo-spatial knowledge processing on natural 

resource management, 28 - 29 June 2001, Varese, Italy, 

pp. 283 - 288.

Perens, Bruce. 2004. Open Source Definition. Open Source 

Initiative, 2004.

Raup, Bruce H.; Keiffer, Hugh H.; Hare, Trent M.; Kargel, 

Jeffrey S. 2000. Generation of Data Acquisition Requests 

for the ASTER Satellite Instrument for Monitoring a 

Globally Distributed Target: Glaciers. IEEE Transactions 

on Geoscience And Remote Sensing, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 

1105-1112, March 2000.
802 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO2 and 

other greenhouse gases (GHGs) are projected to cause 

global average surface temperatures to rise 1.4 - 5.8 

oC over the next 100 years, which is rapid compared 

with climatic changes Earth has previously undergone 

(IPCC, 2001). Land-atmosphere carbon (C) fluxes are 

the most uncertain ones in the global atmospheric C 

budget, adding uncertainty to estimates of future levels 

and impacts of atmospheric GHGs (Prentice and others 

2001; Houghton, 2003). Forest soils and woody biomass 

hold most of the carbon present in Earth’s terrestrial 

biomes. Land-use change, mainly forest burning, harvest, or clearing for agriculture, may compose 15 to 40 

percent of annual human-caused emissions of C to the 

atmosphere. Terrestrial ecosystems may absorb nearly 

as much C annually, with forest growth and expansion 

most important. Consequently, the levels, mechanisms 

and spatial distribution of forest land-atmosphere C 

fluxes are an important focus for reducing uncertainties 

in the global C budget (Fan and others 1998; Holland 

and others 1999; Pacala and others 2001; Schimel and 

others 2001). Spatially extensive data on forest C pools 

and net fluxes can parameterize and validate atmospheric 

and ecosystem models and quantify C fluxes from landuse change, which dominates land-atmosphere fluxes 

over longer periods. Such data are also necessary to 

monitor the differential impacts on forest ecosystems 

of global changes like increases in atmospheric CO2, 

temperatures, nitrogen deposition, solar radiation, or 

cloud heights (Braswell and others 1997; Potter, 1999; 

Forest Canopy Heights in Amazon River Basin Forests as 

Estimated with the Geoscience Laser Altimeter System 

(GLAS)

E. H. Helmer, Research Ecologist, International Institute of Tropical Forestry, USDA Forest 

Service, Jardín Botánico Sur, Río Piedras, PR

M. A. Lefsky, Assistant Professor, Department of Forest, Rangeland and Watershed 

Stewardship, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Abstract—Land-use change, mainly forest burning, harvest, or clearing for agriculture, 

may compose 15 to 40 percent of annual human-caused emissions of carbon (C) to 

the atmosphere. Spatially extensive data on forest C pools can validate and parameterize atmospheric and ecosystem models of those fluxes and quantify fluxes from forest 

change. Excellent evidence exists that light detection and ranging (lidar) waveforms 

can be scaled to estimate forest biomass and aboveground C pools. The Geoscience 

Laser Altimeter Systmem (GLAS) instrument provides satellite-based continuous return 

lidar data and may provide a way to inventory forest C pools globally. It was launched 

aboard the Ice, Cloud and Land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) on January 12, 2003. Here 

we explore whether GLAS data may support global inventory of forest C pools using the 

Amazon river basin as a study area. Forest C budgets in Amazonia are globally significant. 

However, globally-derived and validated Amazonian forest biomass-waveform relationships are not yet available. Consequently, here we address only vegetation canopy height. 

Over the Amazon basin, lands with at least 75 percent tree cover had GLAS-measured 

canopy heights averaging 30.48 ± 0.35 m (N = 2127). Fifty percent of measurements 

ranged from 25-35 m, agreeing with ground-based measurements in tierra firme forest. 

Lands with at least 60 percent tree cover had average canopy heights of 29.69 ± 0.10 

m (N=2734). Regression-based mapping models relating waveform widths to data from 

maps of tree cover and elevation, or those variables plus generalized soil type, explain 

36 to 47 percent of observed variation in mean vegetation canopy heights where tree 

cover is at least 20 percent. Finally, secondary forest age, as mapped with time series 

data over an area spanning three adjacent Landsat scenes in Rondonia, Brazil, was 

significantly related to GLAS-derived height. These results provide evidence that GLAS 

waveforms can contribute to global inventories of forest C pools.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 803

Pacala and others 2001; Schimel and others 2001; 

Houghton, 2003).

Forest C budgets in the Amazon river basin, the focus 

region of this study, are globally significant. Annual C 

fluxes from forest burning, clearing and regrowth in the 

Brazilian Amazon alone may vary from a net atmospheric 

C sink to a net source of about 0.2 Pg C yr –1, and logging in the region may add 5-10 percent to this estimate 

(Nepstad and others 1999; Houghton and others 2000). A 

further complication is that undisturbed forests appear to 

vary annually from a net C source to a sink (Saleska and 

others 2003). A net source of 0.2 Pg C yr-1 is equivalent 

to 6 to 12 percent of net C release via land-use change 

of 2.2 ± 0.8 Pg C yr-1 (Fan and others 1998; Pacala and 

others 2001). It also amounts to about 3 percent of the 

6.3 ± 0.4 Pg C yr-1 of annual C emissions from fossil 

fuel burning and cement production during the 1990s. 

Yet estimates of forest C pools and fluxes in the region 

vary widely, and extensively-based estimates of forest 

biomass are probably more accurate than scaling from 

intensive ones (Houghton and others 2001; Saleska and 

others 2003). Although ground-based inventory of forest 

C pools is expensive, forest reflectance saturates spacebased passive remote sensors at relatively low levels 

of aboveground biomass (Steininger, 2000; Foody and 

others 2003). Light detection and ranging (lidar) from 

satellites may, however, permit precisely located, global 

inventories of forest C pools in the near future. Accurate 

forest biomass estimates are possible with continuous 

return laser systems by combining waveform-measured 

height estimates with waveform-derived canopy-height 

profiles (Drake and others 2002; Lefsky and others 

2002).

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) is a 

lidar instrument that was launched aboard the Ice, Cloud, 

and Land Elevation satellite (ICESat) on January 12, 

2003. The GLAS laser transmits short pulses (4 nano 

seconds) of infrared light (1064 nanometers wavelength) 

and visible green light (532 nanometers). Waveform 

returns are digitized at 15-cm intervals. As originally 

designed, laser pulses at 40 times per second illuminate 

70-m diameter footprints that are spaced at 170-meter 

intervals along Earth’s surface. Problems with the second 

laser have resulted in elliptical laser footprints of about 

50 x 120 m (ICESat Land Working Group, 2004).

The goals of this study are to assess whether GLAS 

data have potential for monitoring forest structure across 

Amazonia and whether proportional forest cover may 

help scale GLAS-measured forest C storage from isolated 

waveforms to maps. Excellent evidence exists for crossbiome relationships that scale laser waveforms to forest 

biomass (Lefsky and others 2004). However, globallyderived and validated biomass-waveform relationships 

are not yet available. Consequently, in this paper we address only forest canopy height. Secondly, we estimate 

mapping models that relate existing geospatial datasets, 

like maps of proportional tree cover, to waveform height, 

as a rough proxy for forest C storage over an area. Thirdly, 

we explore the relationship between lidar-derived canopy 

height in Rondonia, Brazil and second growth forest 

as identified with Landsat data from multiple years. 

Excellent evidence exists for cross-biome relationships 

that scale laser waveforms to forest biomass (Lefsky and 

others 2004). However, globally-derived and validated 

biomass-waveform relationships are not yet available.

Consequently, in this paper we quantify only forest 

canopy height and mean vegetation height of partially 

forested land.

Methods

Lidar Waveforms and Processing

A geographic information system (GIS) coverage of 

Amazon basin boundaries (Mayorga and others 2002) 

subset GLAS waveforms collected over the region to 

those located within the river basin. For the basin-wide 

analysis, we sampled a subset of all waveforms available. Waveform processing began with characterizing 

background noise, which is the power that instrument 

noise and ambient light contribute to laser returns. 

Because background noise precedes and follows surface 

returns, its power values are the most common ones in 

any waveform. Consequently, fitting a Gaussian model 

to a histogram of power values for each waveform effectively determines a waveform-specific distribution of 

background noise, which yields the background noise 

mean and standard deviation. Multiplying the standard 

deviation of the background noise by a constant, in this 

case 5, and adding the mean noise level, estimates maximum noise level. Subtracting this maximum noise level 

from each waveform, and setting any resulting negative 

values to zero, yields a waveform of surface returns.

Both the intended and effective footprint sizes of 

GLAS waveforms are large enough to cause positive 

bias in estimates of forest canopy height on sloping land. 

Regressions to correct for this bias related waveform 

widths over presumably bare land to locationally correspondent slope indices for each study region:

widths = a(slope index) + b (1)

In Equation 1, widths is the fifth percentile of the 

range of waveform widths that occurs for each slope 

index value, which was assumed to indicate relatively 

bare land. All other waveform widths for a given slope 

index were assumed to have vegetation or other land 
804 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

cover above ground elevation and eliminated from the 

regression. Slope index is the maximum difference 

among all elevations in a 90-m window surrounding 

each waveform, which is a 3x3-pixel window for 30-m 

elevation data. The variables a and b are the regression 

slope and intercept, respectively. Elevation data derived 

from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM). 

Because the minimum available resolution of SRTM 

data outside the U.S. is 90 m, one-third of the maximum 

difference among pixels in the 270-m window surrounding each waveform center estimated an equivalent 90-m 

slope index. The resulting regression models for each 

study region calibrated waveform widths to remove any 

slope-related contribution. Corrected waveform width, 

widthi, was calculated from the processed waveform 

width (width) as follows:

widthi = width – widths (2)

Mapping Models for Forest Canopy 

Height

We used multiple regression to estimate mapping 

models that relate GLAS waveform-widths, which are 

average heights from forested and non-forested lands 

for each footprint, to spatially continuous data. The 

mapped data included 1) percent tree cover at 500-m 

resolution derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging 

Spectroradiometer (MODIS) imagery (Hansen and others 

2003), 2) elevation from SRTM digital elevation models, 

and 3) for the Brazilian Amazon only, generalized soil 

type (EMPRABA, 1981). We assumed that such mapping models might be applied to lands with at least 20 

percent tree cover.

Forest Age and GLAS-Derived Canopy 

Height

Land-cover maps for three adjacent time series of 

Landsat scenes over southwestern Amazonia (Rondonia, 

Brazil) (Roberts and others 1998; Roberts and others 

2003) provided source data to evaluate canopy heights 

of secondary forest of various ages. Each single date of 

land-cover classification distinguished between second 

growth forest and closed upland forest that presumably 

was uncut and mostly old growth. The data had a 30-m 

pixel size. Spatial overlays for each time series yielded 

land cover maps of closed upland forest and median 

age of second growth forest for the most recent date of 

Landsat imagery. Where time between Landsat scenes 

in a time series was more than one year, the interval 

midpoints were used in estimating age of second growth 

forest. The earliest dates for the three scene footprints 

were 1975, 1978 and 1986. The most recent dates were 

1998 or 1999, which is about four years earlier than the 

dates of the GLAS waveforms. After using each time 

series to map old-growth forest and secondary forest age, 

we mosiacked the three scenes. Recoding all secondary 

forest to one class and all non-forest to a third class, and 

mapping the standard deviations of class values over 

90-m windows surrounding each pixel, permitted us 

to identify secondary forest pixels that were only surrounded by other secondary forest pixels. For each such 

pixel, we then calculated an average forest age from 

the median forest ages over 90-m windows. We then 

determined which of these secondary forest pixels were 

locationally correspondent with the center coordinates of 

GLAS waveforms and used linear regression to examine 

the relationship between lidar-derived canopy height and 

secondary forest age.

Results

Amazon River Basin Closed Forest 

Canopy Heights

Over the entire Amazon river basin, on those lands 

with at least 75 percent tree cover, lidar-measured canopy 

heights average 30.48 ± 0.35 m (N = 2127) (table 1), and 

90 percent of measurements range from 14.08 to 42.23 

m. Lands with at least 60 percent tree cover over this 

same extent have average canopy heights of 29.69 ± 0.10 

m (N=2734), with 90 percent of measurements ranging 

from 11.68 to 42.12 m. The distribution of canopy heights 

(figure 1) for closed forest canopies in the basin is slightly 

skewed toward taller heights; 50 percent of stands have 

a mean canopy height between about 25 and 35 m.

Mapping Models for Average Canopy 

Height

Amazon River-wide, percent tree cover and SRTMderived elevation relate to strongly to lidar height 

measurements for all lands with at least 20 percent tree 

cover, explaining 36 percent of variation in a highly 

significant relationship. The same variables explain 

somewhat more variation, 43 percent, in lidar heights 

over the Brazilian Amazon (table 2). Adding soil type to 

elevation and tree cover as explanatory values for height 

over the Brazilian Amazon improved the predictive 

model slightly, to an R-square of 47 percent. A one-way 

analysis of variance (ANOVA) suggests that where tree 

cover is at least 60 percent, forest on podzols (spodosols) 

(Beinroth, 1975) is significantly shorter than closed forest 

on other soil types (table 3). Where tree cover is at least 

75 percent, canopy height on podzols is only significantly 

shorter than certain soil types, including alluvial soils, 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 805

Table 1. Summary statistics for lidar-derived canopy height, SRTM-derived elevation and tree cover for lands 

in the Amazon River basin with at least 60 percent or 75 percent tree cover and height at least 2 m.

Waveform height Elevation Tree cover

meters meters percent

Tree cover at least 75%, N = 2127

Mean 30.448 191.6 82.8

Standard deviation 8.160 170.5 4.2

Range 2.083 – 46.350 4 – 3085 75 – 100

Tree cover at least 60%, N = 2734

Mean 29.687 198.1 80.9

Standard deviation 8.750 190.4 6.2

Range 2.050 – 46.350 1 - 3085 60 – 100

Figure 1. Frequency distribution of forest canopy heights over the 

Amazon River basin where tree cover is at least 75 percent and 

height is at least 2 m. Horizontal axis gives midpoint of heights 

for each bin.

Table 2. Relationships predicting height from tree cover, SRTM-derived elevation, or soil 

type for lands with at least 20% tree cover.

Multiple Regression Mapping Model N R-square p-value

Amazon River Basin-wide

1. HEIGHT = 1.60* + 0.350*** TREECOV + 3828 0.36 < 0.0001

0.00238 ELEV* – 0.0000738*** 

TREECOV x ELEV

Brazilian Amazon

2. HEIGHT = 1.87* + 0.354*** TREECOV + 2892 0.43 < 0.0001

0.00420 ELEV* – 0.000154*** 

TREECOV x ELEV

3. HEIGHT = -6.22*** + 0.336*** TREECOV + 2886 0.47 <0.0001

14E-5*** TREECOV x 

ELEV + mSOILi2

1

 Asterisks indicate probabilities of erroneously rejecting the null hypothesis that coefficient estimates 

are zero, based on a two-sided t-distribution, ***p<0.0005, **p<0.005, *p<0.05. 2

 Coefficients for each soil type are given in table 3. All but four soil types had coefficient estimates 

that were significant at p<0.0001.
806 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

cambisols (inceptisols), latosols (oxisols), podzolic soils 

(ultisols) and lithosols (entisols). Where tree cover is at 

least 75 percent, the tallest forest canopies occur on alluvial soils and cambisols (table 4).

Age of Second Growth Forest and 

Lidar-Derived Canopy Heights

After excluding areas of mixed land cover in 90-m 

windows, secondary forest age in 1998-99 was significantly related to lidar-derived height in 2003 (p < 0.005) 

(figure 2). The relationship between median age of second growth forest in 1998-99 and lidar-derived canopy 

height in 2003 is Log10(age) = 0.349 + 0.0161(height) 

(R-square = 0.40, N = 22, p < 0.005). Assuming that all 

second growth forest was 4 yr older in 2003, the following equation results: Log10(age) = 0.778

+ 0.0905(height) (R-square = 0.39, N = 22, p < 

0.005).

Discussion

Canopy height measurements from GLAS agree with 

previous ground-based studies in the Amazon region. In 

Paragominas, Pará, Brazil, upland seasonal evergreen 

old-growth forest on latosols (oxisols) and podzolic soils 

(ultisols), the most common soil types in the region, are 

25­35 m tall (Uhl and others 1988). They correspond well 

with the average closed canopy height of about 30 m from 

Table 3. Significant coefficient estimates for soil types in equation 3 of table 2.

Class No. Generalized soil type U.S. Soil Taxonomy1	 Coefficient ± one standard error2

1 Alluvial soils - 11.5 ± 2.2***

3 Cambisols Inceptisols 14.4 ± 1.7***

5 Hydromorphic, lateriric soils - 6.4 ± 1.4***

6 Gley soils Inceptisols 6 ± 1.5***

9 Latosols Oxisols 10.3 ± 1.2***

11 Podzolic soils Ultisols 10.3 ± 1.3***

12 Deep sand soils Entisols 9.4 ± 1.5***

13 Lithosols Entisols 9.4 ± 1.4***

17 Planosols Mollisols 8 ± 2.7**

19 Podzols Spodosols 8.3 ± 1.6***

1

 Beinroth (1975) compares the Brazilian soil classification with that of the U.S. The summary does not explicitly relate 

hydromorphic and alluvial soils to any single U.S. soil order. 2

 Astersiks indicate probabilities of erroneously rejecting the null hypothesis that coefficient estimates are zero, based on a 

two-sided t-distribution, ***p<0.0005, **p<0.005, *p<0.05.

Table 4. Mean canopy heights (m) and lidar-derived elevations (m) for various soil types in the Brazilian Amazon.

Class 	 Generalized Mean 	 	 Mean 	 Significantly 	 Standard 	 Range

No. Soil Type Elevation (m) N Height (m) different from Deviation (m) (m)

Tree cover at least 75%

1 Alluvial soils 17.461 13 35.394 19 4.215 29.5 - 43.4

3 Cambisols 375.530 9 35.744 19 9.878 12.2 - 45.5

5 Hydromorphic, lateriric soils 41.924 55 28.556 None 6.667 8.4 - 38.9

6 Gley soils 33.168 60 28.824 None 8.352 0.8 - 43.9

9 Latosols 122.443 767 30.809 19 8.155 1.3 - 45.6

11 Podzolic soils 184.425 383 29.732 19 8.653 0.2 - 46.4

12 Deep sand soils 246.671 34 28.985 None 7.356 14.7 - 43.1

13 Lithosols 240.907 66 30.779 None 8.637 1.7 - 45.2

19 Podzols 28.756 31 24.359 1,3,9,11 6.076 11.5 - 38

Tree cover at least 60%

1 Alluvial soils 17.772 15 34.983 6, 19 4.088 29.5 - 43.4

3 Cambisols 591.898 20 28.603 19 12.248 4.2 - 45.5

5 Hydromorphic, lateriric soils 41.897 66 27.849 11,6,9,19 7.701 4.5 - 41.8

6 Gley soils 33.764 84 26.608 6,19 8.912 0.8 - 43.9

9 Latosols 126.529 1000 30.192 19 8.887 0.8 - 45.9

11 Podzolic soils 193.912 467 28.968 19 8.992 0.2 - 46.4

12 Deep sand soils 256.012 43 27.027 19 8.366 7 - 43.1

13 Lithosols 250.976 79 30.342 19 8.458 1.7 - 45.2

19 Podzols 27.416 40 20.625 All 8.912 5 - 38
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 807

GLAS measurements and a distribution of canopy heights 

in which 50 percent of measurements range from 25-35 m. 

The average canopy height of forest on podzols (spodosols) of 24 m, with 90 percent of measurements between 

12 and 33 m, also corresponds well with forest height 

observed on those soils of 20-30 m for Caatinga forest 

and 5-10 m for Bana forest (Kauffman and others 1988).

Regression-based mapping models relating GLASderived mean canopy heights to data from maps of tree 

cover and elevation explain 36 to 47 percent of observed 

variation in waveform widths over the Amazon basin 

and the Brazilian Amazon. Insofar as GLAS-derived 

mean heights over lands with 20 percent or more tree 

cover serve as a proxy for forest-related C storage over 

a given 500­m pixel, the geospatial layers that we used 

can contribute to scaling estimates of forest C storage 

globally. Based on results in the Brazilian Amazon, 

global geospatial data on soil types might further improve 

such mapping models. Identifying soil type with the less 

generalize 70- or 249­class versions of the Brazilian soils 

map might also enable soil type to explain more of the 

variability in waveform width. Clay content of terra firme 

forest latosols, which is related to several soils fertility 

parameters, explained one-third of the variability in biomass of those forests (Laurance and others 1999).

Finally, the significance of the relationship between 

second growth forest age in 1998-99 and GLAS-derived 

canopy heights in 2003 demonstrates that GLAS data 

are sensitive to age-related differences in forest canopy 

height. This result provides further evidence that GLAS 

waveforms can contribute to global inventories of forest 

C pools.

Conclusions

Apparently valid height estimates of closed forest 

canopies are derivable from GLAS waveforms for both 

the Amazon River basin and by generalized soil type for 

the Brazilian Amazon. In addition, maps of proportional 

tree cover, elevation, and soils are likely to contribute 

to scaling GLAS-based estimates of forest C pools to 

spatially continuous data.

Acknowledgments

We thank the Earth Observing System (EOS)-Webster, 

at the University of New Hampshire, through which 

we obtained the generalized soils map for the Brazilian 

Amazon, and NASA’s Large Basin Amazonia (LBA) 

program, through which we obtained geospatial data 

for the Amazon River basin boundaries (courtesy of the 

University of Washington Department of Oceanography), 

and the time series of land cover for the Rondonia study 

area (courtesy of Dar Roberts). We obtained MODIS tree 

cover data from the University of Maryland’s Global 

Land Cover Facility. This research was conducted with 

cooperation from the University of Puerto Rico.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 809

Introduction

Forest health has gained popular attention in recent 

years because of environmental concerns about air pollution, acid rain, global climate change, population growth, 

and long-term resource management. In response to these 

environmental concerns and to legislative and policy 

direction, Federal and State agencies have been working 

together to develop a program for forest monitoring and 

reporting on the status and trends of forest health. The 

national Forest Health Monitoring (FHM) program has 

been established to accomplish this objective.

The FHM program is comprised of three interrelated 

monitoring activities: Detection Monitoring (Plot and 

Survey Components); Evaluation Monitoring; and 

Intensive Site Ecosystem Monitoring. A fourth, related 

activity is Research on Monitoring Techniques. Each 

monitoring activity provides a different level of information and each has specific, complementary goals.

Detection Monitoring consists of two components: 

the Plot Component and the Survey Component. The 

Plot Component of Detection Monitoring employs a 

set of plots systematically distributed across the entire 

United States providing data on forest mensuration, tree 

crown condition, tree damage, ozone injury to vegetation, 

soil chemistry and erosion, vegetation diversity, lichen 

diversity, coarse woody debris, and fuel loading. The 

Survey Component of Detection Monitoring makes use 

of both ground surveys and aerial surveys to collect data 

on the occurrence of some insects, diseases, and other 

forest health stressors. Both Plot Component and Survey 

Component information, in combination with data on 

weather and climate change, fire incidence and damage, 

and observations on shifts in land use, are required to 

interpret forest condition. This paper describes aerial 

surveys, how aerial survey data is collected, and how 

aerial survey programs are managed.

What are Aerial Detection 

Surveys?

Aerial survey, also known as aerial sketchmapping, is 

a remote sensing technique of observing forest change 

events from an aircraft and documenting them manually 

onto a map. The observer views a particular forest change 

event, such as mortality caused by bark beetles or defoliation caused by gypsy moths, and delineates the affected 

area onto a map to record its size, shape, and location as 

accurately as possible. Attributes, such as host, causal 

agent, symptom, and an estimate of intensity or number 

of trees affected, may also be recorded.

Aerial surveys have been recognized for over fifty 

years as an efficient and economical method of detecting 

Aerial Detection Surveys in the United States

E. W. Johnson, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Region, Golden, CO

D. Wittwer, USDA Forest Service, Alaska Region, Juneau, AK

Abstract—Aerial detection surveys, also known as aerial sketchmapping, is a remote 

sensing technique of observing forest change events from an aircraft and documenting them manually onto a map. Data from aerial surveys have become an important 

component of the Forest Health Monitoring, a national program designed to determine 

the status, changes, and trends in indicators of forest condition. Aerial surveys are an 

effective and economical means of monitoring and mapping insect, disease and other 

forest disturbances. Information from aerial surveys can be considered the first stage in a 

multi-stage or multi-phase sampling design. Aerial skecthmap surveys have been utilized 

in the United States since the 1950s. Today, USDA Forest Service, State & Private Forestry, 

Forest Health Protection, together with other federal, state, and county cooperators 

conducts annual sketchmap surveys across all land ownerships. In 2002, approximately 

one million square miles were surveyed in the United States alone. Traditionally, forest damage has been sketchmapped on USGS base paper maps. Recently, the USDA 

Forest Service’s Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team has developed a Digital 

Aerial Sketch Mapping system which automates this process allowing users to digitize 

polygons directly onto a touch-screen linked to a Global Positioning Unit (GPS) unit 

and computer or onto a tablet PC with an integrated GPS.
810 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

and monitoring forest change events over large forested 

areas. It is a relatively low cost remote sensing method 

that provides a coarse, landscape-level overview of forest 

conditions. Today, USDA Forest Service, State & Private 

Forestry, Forest Health Protection (FHP), together with 

other federal, state, and county cooperators conducts 

annual sketchmap surveys across all land ownerships. 

Approximately one million square miles were surveyed 

within the United States in 2002.

Aerial surveys can be used as the first step of a multitiered process of detection, monitoring, and evaluation, 

utilizing other remote sensing and ground sampling 

techniques to gather additional data on significant forest events or change. As with all remotely sensed data, 

some amount of ground-truthing is required before the 

data can be considered reliable.

How is Aerial Survey Data 

Collected?

In order to collect aerial survey data, the following 

elements are needed: a high-winged aircraft providing 

good visibility and capable of flying at relatively slow 

speeds, a pilot who has a sincere interest in safety and is 

motivated to perform at a high level, and a sketchmapper 

who has the ability to relate forest damage observed on 

the ground to features on a map without experiencing the 

debilitating effects of motion sickness. The map base onto 

which the sketch-mapped information is recorded varies 

from sketchmapper to sketchmapper and from program to 

program. For the more general “overview” surveys, the 

map base will often be of the 1:100,000 scale topographic 

or satellite image variety. For more intensive “special” 

surveys, using 1:24,000 scale maps is common. The data 

from the maps is then digitized and entered in a national 

Geographic Information System (GIS) database using 

common standards that are required for Forest Health 

Monitoring reporting efforts.

Since forest pests and the damage they cause are dynamic and highly variable, the resulting data will also 

be highly variable. No two sketchmappers will or can 

be expected to record the same outbreak in exactly the 

way. For this reason, sketchmapping should be regarded 

more as an art than an exact science. It is important at 

the outset that this be understood, not only by conscientious sketchmappers who find that their data may not be 

in close agreement with their peers or with a subsequent 

statistically reliable aerial photo survey, but also by the 

forest manager, who may want to put the information to 

use. Sketchmapping is highly subjective, and the resulting data can be no more accurate than the competence 

of the sketchmapper and the conditions under which the 

data was obtained (Klein and others (1983).

As the preceding passage implies, there are certain 

limitations as to how the data obtained from aerial 

sketchmap surveys can be used. During a typical aerial 

survey mission, the survey plane speed is approximately 

100 knots (115 MPH) flown at an altitude from 1,000 to 

3,000 feet above ground level. Observers on average are 

evaluating a swath of about 1.5 miles wide at any one 

time, which only gives them about 30 seconds per mile 

to recognize, classify, and record all of the activity they 

see. Because of these circumstances, aerial sketchmap 

data should only be regarded as a coarse “snapshot” of 

landscape level forest health and/or forest change condition. Spatially, the data is best displayed at small scales 

such as 1:100,000, 1:250,000 or 1:500,000. The data is 

better used for demonstrating trends rather than exacting 

precise measurements.

How are Aerial Survey 

Programs Managed?

There is much more to aerial sketchmapping besides 

looking for damaged trees from an aircraft; a great deal 

of preliminary work must be done before anyone is sent 

up in the air to do this type of work. Some of this work 

includes developing an aviation management plan and 

an aviation safety awareness program; providing for 

suitable, safe, cost-effective aircraft; and ensuring the 

availability of trained, qualified personnel to do the work, 

including experienced, qualified pilots.

Aviation Management Plans

An aviation management plan provides all of the 

program participants with information about the nature 

and intent of the mission and the program. It includes: 

a description of the program along with its purpose and 

scope; the personnel involved and their responsibilities; 

and a definition of all of the pertinent policies, procedures, operations, safety plans, and documents that apply 

to the program. By reading the aviation management 

plan, anyone unfamiliar with the program should be 

able to quickly grasp the intent, authority, and extent of 

the program.

Aviation Safety Awareness Program

The purpose of an aviation safety awareness program 

is to ensure that all participants understand the importance of conducting an aerial survey program safely. It 

is the responsibility of management to provide adequate 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 811

safety awareness training. It is the responsibility of all 

participants to be aware of all safety implications in an 

aviation program. Proper training includes formal aviation safety and management courses, which should be 

repeated every few years. Approaching and solving problems through continual training ensures a high standard 

of job performance where instilled safety practices are 

an integral part.

Suitable Aircraft

Having the right tool for the right job also applies to 

aerial surveys. Aircraft specifications can vary depending 

on many factors, some of which include: terrain, number 

of observers, flying altitude, flight speeds, flight patterns, 

size of survey area, ferry distance to the survey area, and 

expected accuracy levels. With increased horsepower 

comes an increased cost. A mission should never be flown 

with an underpowered airplane. Finding the appropriate 

aircraft is a matter of weighing the benefits with the costs 

yet never compromising safety.

Personnel

The most critical element in aerial sketchmapping is 

also the most variable: the sketchmapper. Conducting an 

aerial survey with a trained, experienced sketchmapper is 

the best way to assure a quality aerial survey. Although it 

helps that a sketchmapper is good with maps, is able to 

endure riding in an aircraft without experiencing motion 

sickness, has a background in forestry and an interest in 

aviation, and has had some form of aerial sketchmapping 

training; there is no substitute for experience. An individual cannot be expected to collect quality aerial survey 

data without receiving months, perhaps even years, of 

on-the-job training.

A good pilot contributes greatly to the safety and quality of the survey. A well-qualified pilot works as a team 

player to position the aircraft at the appropriate altitude, 

speed, and location to give the observer the best view. An 

aerial survey program benefits greatly by using stringent 

requirements for pilot qualifications.

Along with personnel flying the aerial survey, the survey team includes someone on the ground responsible for 

“flight following”: that is, monitoring the location of the 

aircraft through regular radio contact. The flight follower, 

or dispatcher, maintains radio contact with the flight crew 

in case of an emergency or the need to pass along important information. A good dispatcher is diligent about 

constantly monitoring the aircraft’s position and follows 

proper procedures in the event of an emergency.

New Technologies

New technologies are constantly being sought after 

and integrated into aerial surveys. The USDA Forest 

Service’s Forest Health Technology Enterprise Team 

has recently developed a digital aerial sketchmap system 

(DASM), where observed forest damage polygons can be 

directly recorded onto a touch-screen linked to a Global 

Positioning Unit (GPS) unit and computer, or onto a tablet PC with an integrated GPS. This eliminates the need 

for using pencils to draw on paper maps and the ensuing 

lengthy process of post processing the maps into a digital 

format. The DASM also helps the observer to stay on 

course via an aircraft icon linked to a GPS receiver that 

flashes on the screen across a moving map display.

Automated flights following systems have now been 

established in many aerial survey programs nationally. 

A GPS unit installed in the aircraft transmits position 

locations to a centralized dispatch center responsible 

for following the aircraft’s route. In the event of an 

emergency, help can be immediately dispatched to the 

incident’s exact location.

References

Klein, W.H., S. Tunnock, J.G.D. Ward, and J.A.E. Knopf. 

1983. Aerial Sketchmapping. In: Forest Insect and Disease 

Survey Methods Manual, USDA Forest Service, Forest 

Pest Management, Methods Application Group, Davis, 

Calif., 15 pp.
812 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Management agencies need reliable spatial information for decision making. In the past foresters and other 

land managers cruised or sketch mapped an area usually 

to decide what is where. Managers were contemptuous 

of statistical sampling because it might give reliably data 

on how much was there but not where. Frequent legal 

challenges changed this. Now interest is in obtaining 

reliable (defensible) mapped and statistical data together. 

For example Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) of 

the USDA Forest Service has made this one of the high 

priority research efforts for their national program. One 

such area of current research is referred to as small area 

estimation, basically a model-building approach using 

statistical data in combination with ancillary data such 

as from the satellite thematic mapper TM, geographic 

information systems (GIS), topographic maps and other 

helpful information.

Small area estimation techniques represent a substantial improvement in terms of quality of data and, 

especially in defensibility of data based management 

decisions relative to what used to be done when managers relied on subjective information. As so many new 

developments, the techniques are oversold as a panacea. 

This is because estimates generated by such techniques 

are claimed to have standard errors similar to those for 

classical sampling. The trouble is the comparison is made 

for the entire population of interest whereas managers 

are primarily interested in predictions for much smaller 

areas such as polygons used as a basis for management. 

Standard errors for individual predictions can be large, 

as one would expect, given the variability encountered 

on the ground in forests.

Considerable work in small area estimation of forest 

resources is now being done in many parts of the world. 

Multiple imputation methods (including regression 

models) and k-nearest neighbor techniques have been 

proposed for continuous variables. In these techniques, 

field sample information is extrapolated to the entire 

population where information on sample locations is 

input to non-sampled locations by some criteria such as 

similar TM readings for the sampled and non-sampled 

locations. In multiple imputations for each unit without 

sample data, a series of l predictions are made using 

randomly selected data and an underlying model and 

database. Then the data sets are analyzed separately 

and pooled into a final result, usually an average of the 

results.

Brief Review of Literature

Franco-Lopez (1999) reviews methods for projecting 

and propagating forest plot and stand information. As he 

notes, considerable effort has been extended in Nordic 

countries combining forest monitoring information, remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS) 

to develop maps for forest variables such as cover type, 

stand density and timber volume with emphasis on the 

k-nearest neighbor technique. He confides that while his 

results are imprecise for Minnesota, they are comparable 

to those obtained by other methods in this region.

Methods

An objective in Lin (2003) was to predict mortality, 

total basal area and number of trees on 1-ha plots at a 0.85 

mile grid given data collected on a 1.7 mile grid. These 

variables were selected for their economic and ecological 

importance. The sampling design used on the latter grid 

was the CVS plot design (Max et al. 1996) consisting 

Small Area Variance Estimation for the Siuslaw NF in 

Oregon and Some Results

S Lin, D.Boes and H.T. Schreuder

Abstract—The results of a small area prediction study for the Siuslaw National Forest 

in Oregon are presented. Predictions were made for total basal area, number of trees 

and mortality per ha on a 0.85 mile grid using data on a 1.7 mile grid and additional 

ancillary information from TM. A reliable method of estimating prediction errors for 

individual plot predictions called the semi-parametric bootstrap is given too. Prediction 

errors were quite large. Suggestions on how to improve such necessary predictions for 

small areas are given.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 813

of a set of a circular 1-ha plot subsampled at 5 locations 

with subplots of different sizes for different sized trees. 

Ancillary data used was plot information for plots in the 

neighborhood of the prediction locations and TM data 

using bands 1-5 and 7 from TM 5.

Results and Conclusions

In this study: (1) the predictions errors for predictions 

were derived based on transformed and non-transformed 

data for non-sampled locations using only field sample 

plot or subplot information, (2) prediction errors for 

predictions were derived based on spatial multivariate 

regression models with distance-related correlation 

functions, (3) spatial zero-inflated models were used to 

handle the numerous zeros in the data, (4) the normal 

approximate and bootstrap-t prediction intervals were 

compared for the predictors with coefficients based on 

distance-related correlation functions with and without 

auxiliary information, and (5) reliable bootstrap methods 

were developed for different situations.

The semi-parametric bootstrap method is the best 

method currently available to estimate prediction errors. 

It works as follows (Lin, 2003 pp 97-98): If we denote 

Y as the vector of the variable of interest, μ as the vector of its mean at the i=1, ...,N locations, B the vector 

of regression coefficients, ε an Nx1 vector of random 

variables with mean 0 and NxN dispersion matrix σ2 I, 

the correlation matrix of Y, I the identity matrix, with H 

and V the corresponding (0,1) matrices with 1’s for the 

horizontal and vertical neighbors respectively, C(1)and 

C(2)the corresponding (0,1) matrices with 1’s for corner 

neighbors in the directions {(1,1), (-1,-1)} and {(1,-1), 

(-1,1)} respectively and zeroes elsewhere in all matrices. 

Then suppose the spatial data follows the linear model:

Y=μ+Bε where Y=(Y1,...,YN)',μ=(μ1,...,μN)',Γ=I+ρ1H

+ρ2V+ρ3C(1)+ ρ4C(2)≡B'B,ε MVN(0,σ2I)

or more simply:

Yi=μ+ mij

j≠i

N

∑ (Yj

-μ)+εii=1,...,N

where B-1≡I-M and M=(mij).

For a symmetrical and positive-definite estimator Γ

∧

of Γ, decompose it as:

Γ

∧

 = B

∧

' B

∧

and define (ε

∧

1

,...,ε

∧

N)≡ B

∧ -1(Y-μ) and ε�

i

=

ε

∧

i

- mij

j≠i

N

∑ ε

∧

i

 / N,i=1,...,N.

Then the assumed i.i.d. ε

�

i

 are bootstrapped.

For each bootstrap sample ε* calculate Y*= μˆ + B

∧

ε*.

Then refit the model to each of the bootstrap samples 

and predict for each of the samples at the desired locations. The variability between the estimates for the 

predicted location(s) is then used for the bootstrap variance estimate for that location.

We conclude that prediction models developed are 

quite unreliable for this data set. For prediction purposes a 

simple model that assumes a spatial correlation structure 

without any distributional assumptions worked as well as 

any other. The specific spatial correlation structure was 

selected by minimizing an overall mean squared error. 

Our recommended predictor is a linear combination of 

measurements at neighboring sites. The coefficients in 

the linear combinations are functions of the estimated 

neighboring correlations. These simple predictors have 

an analytical formula for the prediction errors and these 

too can be estimated using the estimated correlations. 

These predictors work for any of the response variables 

total basal area, number of live trees and mortality. The 

semiparametric bootstrap method is recommended for 

computing the reliability of the plot predictions.

The overall results were quite disappointing. There 

is little spatial dependence among the response variables at the 1.7-mile grid scale and consequently such 

dependence is of little use in making predictions at 

non-sampled plots. Also, there is little useful correlation 

between our response variables and the many available 

auxiliary variables, including those from satellite imagery (TM). Auxiliary data contributed little to improving 

predictions in our study. The following shows the results 

for six plots, similar results were found for other plots.

For total basal area we found that certain auxiliary data 

were useful in reducing prediction errors. To illustrate 

as to the size of the errors involved for this variable, we 

predicted the value at each of six sites on the 0.85-mile 

grid. Predicted total basal area range from about twenty 

to sixty m2 per ha. If the sample mean was used as a 

predictor and independence among sites assumed, the 

prediction error is estimated to be 24.38. The estimated 

prediction errors using our simple predictors at the six 

sites are, respectively, 24.23, 24.22, 24.21, 24.24, 24.11, 

and 24.12. Clearly there is little improvement over the 

nominal 24.38. On the other hand, the corresponding 

estimated prediction errors for the same six sites, when 

one incorporates aspect and band 4 (representing active 

vegetation) as auxiliary variables, are, respectively, 

18.54, 18.64, 18.53, 18.47, 18.59 and 18.44 showing a 

nearly twenty-five percent improvement.

For number of live trees/ha, predictions are between 

above three hundred and five hundred trees per ha. The 
814 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

respective estimated prediction errors at the six sites are 

264.81, 264.56, 264.52, 264.70, 264.53, and 264.55 without auxiliary data, and 258.52, 258.14, 258.62, 257.74, 

259.87 and 258.25 with auxiliary data. The overall reduction in prediction errors is less than five percent.

For mortality per ha, predictions are between about 

forty and a hundred and thirty. The nominal estimated 

prediction errors range from 52.71 to 52.76 without auxiliary data. The estimated prediction errors using auxiliary 

data ranged from 53.19 to 54.08 so for M, auxiliary data 

provides no improvement in prediction.

We are not ready for prime time in FIA (except perhaps 

in some very homogeneous parts of the country), i.e., we 

should not be publishing results on small area estimates 

at this time unless quite reliable estimates were generated 

for the area involved. For successful small area estimation, three conditions need to be met. First of all there 

should ideally be a good correlation between sampled and 

non-sampled areas nearby or similar to the ones sampled. 

This usually requires a much more intensive grid than the 

5000 m grid now used by FIA. Secondly, there should 

be a close relationship between spatial characteristics of 

a location and plot information and the spatial locations 

need to be accurate.

Research should be pursued further in this field. We 

need to use data from an improved resolution remote 

sensor relative to TM and/or photography as used by 

the National Resources Inventory (NRI) of the Natural 

Resources Conservation Service. This improved ancillary information may yield better information for better 

predictions. Also: there is a need to think about generating estimates emphasizing different sources for different 

variables and redefinition of some variables could be 

useful too. For some variables remote sensing alone 

(including photography) may do better than ground sampling, for others we have to continue to rely on ground 

sampling primarily.

For management purposes we really want mapped or 

very detailed local information at least for percent cover, 

cover types (about 30), and stand structure. Percent cover 

can probably be obtained as well from remote sensing as 

from ground sampling. Cover type definitions are actually still quite fluid. In a simple case: some people argue 

that a mixed pine/hardwood stand has to have at least 40 

percent of each, the remainder in the other. Others might 

argue for a 30/70 percent split. It seems reasonable to 

use definitions on what remote sensing can objectively 

give us in that regard. Stand structure on the other hand 

will probably always have to be obtained from ground 

sampling. Other examples abound. Large tree mortality 

and certain types of old growth can probably be best 

estimated from remote sensing whereas lower vegetation 

will have to be sampled on the ground usually. In this 

regard different plots may need to be used for different 

variables too at the same grid locations.

To obtain reliable predictions today, additional information is required such as that available from improved 

remote sensors or large- scale photos combined with 

expertise from local ecologists. Also, at present it is still 

necessary to correct for location errors with models. 

Making such corrections requires considerable information on the extent and location of the errors. Hopefully, 

improvements in GPS-type sensors will allow us to 

ignore location errors in the future.

References

Lin, J-M. 2003. Small area estimation. PhD dissertation 

Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO.

Max, T.A., Schreuder, H.T., Hazard, J.W., Teply, J. and Alegria, 

J. 1996. The Region 6 Vegetation Inventory and Monitoring 

System. USDA FS PNW Res. Paper PNW-RP-493. 22 p.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 815

The Aerial Sketchmap Program 

in Brazil

Aerial sketchmapping is the oldest and most widely 

used remote sensing tool for forest health assessment 

in North America (CIESLA, 2000). This is a relatively 

simple and low cost method of monitoring forest condition. Trained observers, working in low-flying aircraft 

generally at a flying height between 300 and 800 meters 

above ground level, locate areas of tree mortality or 

foliar injury and “sketch” those locations onto maps as 

coded points or polygons according to predetermined 

classification schemes. Resultant data are used to monitor pest damage, initiate salvage harvesting, plan pest 

management operations and develop historic databases 

on the occurrence and severity of forest insect and disease 

outbreaks (CIESLA and others, 2002).

This approach to forest health assessment has potential 

value in southern Brazil, due to the existence of large areas of pine and eucalyptus plantations (about 2.7 million 

acres), where the presence of an insect or disease might 

cause widespread damage. These fast growing forests 

provide raw material for pulp, paper and wood products 

industry, supplying both domestic and export markets 

and thus play a key role in the regional economy.

The first infestations by the European wood wasp 

(Sirex noctilio) were reported in 1988 (IEDE and others, 

1988) in Rio Grande do Sul – the southernmost State 

– and presently the insect is known to have spread also 

to Santa Catarina and Paraná States (DISPERATI and 

others, 1998). In 1998 a technical exchange agreement 

was celebrated between USDA Forest Service and the 

Brazilian Agricultural Research Agency (EMBRAPA), 

thus providing the basis for the development of an aerial 

sketchmap program oriented primarily to assessment of 

Aerial Sketchmapping for Monitoring Forest Conditions in 

Southern Brazil

Y. M. Malheiros de Oliveira , M. A. Doetzer Rosot and N.B. da Luz, researchers, Brazilian 

Agricultural Research Company – Embrapa, Colombo-PR, CEP 83400-000, Brazil 

W. M. Ciesla, owner, Forest Health Management International, Fort Collins, CO

E.W. Johnson, Aerial Survey Program Manager, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain 

Region, Forest Health Protection, Denver, CO

R. Rhea, entomologist, USDA Forest Service, Southern Region, Forest Health Protection, 

Asheville, NC

J.F. Penteado Jr., technician and aerial observer, Brazilian Agricultural Research Company 

– Embrapa, Colombo-PR, CEP 83400-000, Brazil

Abstract—Aerial sketchmapping is a simple, low cost remote sensing method used for 

detection and mapping of forest damage caused by biotic agents (insects, pathogens 

and other pests) and abiotic agents (wind, fire, storms, hurricane, ice storms) in North 

America. This method was introduced to Brazil in 2001/2002 via a USDA Forest 

Service/EMBRAPA technical exchange program, which included demonstration flights, 

a feasibility study, workshops, production of satellite maps, observer training and operational flights, primarily for assessment of damage caused by European wood wasp 

(Sirex noctilio), monkeys (Cebus nigritus), armillaria root disease (Armillaria spp.), and 

other damaging agents in pine plantations in Southern Brazil. New applications have 

been investigated in the most recent campaigns, carried out in 2003 and 2004. These 

include the use of this technique to monitor land use changes, evaluate the accuracy 

of classifications from satellite imagery, and to classify successional phases in remnants 

of Araucaria angustifolia forests in Southern Brazil. The operational flights have demonstrated that clearcuts, land use change detection, and other anthropogenic activities 

may be suitably mapped and monitored from the air. Future activities are aimed at 

consolidation of this technique in Brazil, the identification of other damage signatures, 

such as those caused by the eucalyptus red gum lerp psyllid (Glycaspis brimblecombei), 

and the use of digital aerial sketchmapping methods.
816 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

damage caused by S. noctilio, but also for other forest 

pests in pine plantations in Brazil’s three southernmost 

states: Paraná, Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul. 

The following activities have been carried out:

Demonstration flights—About 2,400 hectares of Pinus 

taeda plantations were flown over by an Aero Boero 115 

aircraft, from which the mapping of various levels of 

tree mortality caused by S. noctilio was done (CIESLA 

and others 1999).

A feasibility study—The study concluded that aerial 

sketchmapping was indeed feasible in southern Brazil 

due to: low costs (similar to those in North America); 

aerial visibility of damaging agents; availability of 

satellite maps for aerial sketchmap surveys; an interest on the part of EMBRAPA and representatives of 

forest industry to look into the implementation of this 

technology; and a potential capability to detect and map 

damage caused by forest pests other than the European 

wood wasp.

Production of aerial survey maps—The traditional 

topographic maps used in North America were substituted by satellite maps in Brazil, produced from Landsat 

7 ETM data with varying scales (1: 100,000; 1:50,000; 

1:25,000), printed in a band 543 (RGB) configuration, 

which resembled a natural color image or in 453 (RGB) 

– false color. The maps were overlaid with a 4 km UTM 

grid, major roads, drainages and the polygons of pine 

plantations.

Training of aerial observers—During the period 8-

12 April 2002, in Brazil, twelve trainees, representing 

EMBRAPA (6 trainees), private industry (3), a non-government organization (NGO) (1), Universidade Federal 

do Paraná (1) and a pilot attended aerial sketchmap 

classes and took part on training flights, mapping damage caused by several damaging agents. On July of the 

same year a member of the Embrapa team was trained 

in USA, taking part ion a 2-week aerial survey to detect 

forest insect and disease damage in Colorado State.

Workshop—A technical workshop held in Curitiba, 

Brazil, on November 22 – 23, 2003, brought together 

USDA Forest Service aerial sketchmappers, the Embrapa 

team and the Paraná State Government staff in order to 

discuss the potential use of aerial sketchmapping techniques and other remote sensing approaches in the so 

called “Paraná Biodiversity Project,” which is related to 

the conservation of native forests in Paraná State.

Operational flights—Operational flights were conducted immediately after the first training period and 

since then many flight campaigns have been carried out. 

The approaches, objectives, and results of these surveys 

are described and discussed in this paper.

Operational Flights

Three operational flight campaigns were carried out 

by the USDA Forest Service/Embrapa team during the 

years 2002, 2003 and 2004 (table 1). In 60.5 hours of 

flight, the surveys covered an area of more than one million hectares, which, in fact, corresponds to 5 percent 

of the area of Paraná State (Fig. 1). The same Cessna 

185 aircraft used for the observer training was also used 

for operational aerial sketchmap surveys (Fig. 2). All 

surveys were flown using the grid method. Flight lines 

were established at 4 km intervals and observers mapped 

a 2 km wide swath. A Garmin GPSMAP 295 Global 

Positioning System (GPS) receiver (Fig. 3) was used to 

help the pilot keep the survey aircraft on the flight lines 

and to facilitate location of beginning and ending points 

of flight lines.

Surveys for Forest Damage Detection 

and Thematic Accuracy Assessment

In surveys whose objectives were the assessment of 

forest damage in pine plantations and also the accuracy 

of satellite imagery visual interpretation, flight lines were 

established in such a manner as to include all areas classified as pine plantations and eliminate non-pine-forested 

areas (Fig. 4). Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) 

coordinates of each flight line beginning and end point 

were entered into the GPS.

CIESLA and others (2002) describe a number of damage signatures detected and mapped in the 2002 flight 

campaign:

Scattered tree mortality in pine plantations suggestive 

of infestations of Sirex noctilio.

Top kill in both pine and Araucaria plantations suggestive of damage caused by indigenous monkeys. This 

is a relatively new problem in southern Brazil.

Yellowing or chlorosis in pine plantations. This may be 

associated with either soil nutrient deficiencies and/or 

root disease caused by a species of Armillaria.

Small group kills of 5-20 trees in pine plantations. 

These resemble the classic signature associated with 

bark beetle infestations in North America.

A provisional coding system was developed for the 

prevailing forest damage types in Brazil and included 

host, damage type and intensity of damage. This system was slightly modified during the 2003 surveys as 

Brazilian aerial sketchmappers gained more experience 

and became more familiar with conditions in their country (table 2). Future modifications may include a new 

code for the eucalyptus red gum lerp psyllid.

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•

•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 817

Table 1. Characterization of aerial sketchmapping flight campaigns in Southern Brazil.

Flight 

duration 

Flight region Area (ha) Objectives (hours) Date

Palmas/União da Vitória - PR 379,200 Forest damage assessment (wood wasp, monkey); 32 April, 2002

 accuracy assessment of satellite imagery visual 

 interpretation

Pitanga - PR 35,200 Forest damage assessment (wood wasp, 3 April, 2002

 Armillaria spp); accuracy assessment of satellite 

 imagery visual interpretation

Caçador - SC 57,600 Classification of Araucaria angustifolia 3 April, 2002

(Parana-pine) cover classes in remnants of 

 Araucaria angustifolia forests

Abapã - PR 108,800 Forest damage assessment (wood wasp); 5 June, 2003

 accuracy assessment of satellite imagery 

 visual interpretation

Rio Branco do Ivaí - PR 41,600 Forest damage assessment (wood wasp); 3.5 June, 2003

 accuracy assessment of satellite imagery visual 

 interpretation

Rio dos Touros - PR 48,000 Discrimination of different successional phases in 3 June, 2003

 remnants of Araucaria angustifolia forests; 

 accuracy assessment of satellite imagery 

classification

Mangueirinha Indian 64,000 Discrimination of different successional phases in 2 June, 2003

Reserve - PR remnants of Araucaria angustifolia forests; 

 accuracy assessment of satellite imagery 

classification

São Mateus do Sul - PR 216,000 Detection of afforestation in remnants of Araucaria 4.5 April, 2004

 angustifolia forests; forest damage assessment 

(wood wasp, monkey); accuracy assessment of 

 satellite imagery visual interpretation

Guarapuava - PR 216,000 Detection of afforestation in remnants of Araucaria 4.5 April, 2004

 angustifolia forests; forest damage assessment 

(wood wasp, monkey); accuracy assessment of 

 satellite imagery visual interpretation

Total 1,166,400 60.5

Following the completion of the aerial surveys, damage polygons were transferred to mylar overlays, which 

were scanned, georeferenced and vectorized for entry 

into the EMBRAPA Geographic Information System 

(GIS), including the damage signature information as 

tabular data.

The results of the aerial surveys regarding forest 

damage were checked through ground surveys. Table 

3 shows omission and commission errors found for the 

flights over the region of União da Vitória and Pitanga, 

in Paraná State. The general accuracy for the survey 

achieved 91.43 percent. However, about 40 percent of 

the stands damaged by monkeys could not be detected 

by the aerial survey. The same happened to the stands 

injured simultaneously by monkey and wood-wasp, fifty 

percent of them being omitted. All the stands attacked 

by the wood-wasp have been discriminated, while 10.71 

percent of the stands annotated as damaged by woodwasp belonged, actually, to other damage classes.

A final forest damage map for the region of União 

da Vitória, Paraná State, is shown in Figure 5. The 

GIS environment allows the selective display of all 

information collected during the aerial survey. As new 

flights are performed, one can add new information to 

the database. Further spatial analyses may help develop 

a spatial distribution pattern for certain forest pests, as 

well as risk maps.

Although the visual interpretation of satellite imagery 

has proved to be the most efficient method of mapping 

pine plantations in Southern Brazil (ROSOT and others, 

2003), the assessment of thematic accuracy demanded 

heavy economic and personal resources due mainly to 

the need of several trips in order to get reliable ground 

data in forest plantations. As the Embrapa team decided 

to produce satellite maps for the training of aerial observers, they realized that the aerial sketchmap survey could 

be used as an opportunity to check the accuracy of the 

pine classification. The sketchmapper should, thus, be 

responsible for the observation of forest damage as well 

as for the checking of forest type, which was easily done. 

The most frequent classification errors included:

omission errors: non-classified young plantations, less 

than 8 years old; non-classified small pine plantations 

(1 to 5 years old);

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8

18 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. Figure 1. Flight Campaign Areas in Parana State.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 819

commission errors: natural and planted Araucarian 

forests; eucalyptus plantations.

The accuracy assessment was performed in GIS environment on a polygon basis, i.e., the ground control 

points were represented by the centroids of “ground 

truth” polygons. For the region known as Abapã it was 

found that the visual interpretation of satellite imagery 

omitted 10.74 percent of the existing pine stands. On the 

other hand, 2.4 percent of the polygons assigned to the 

“pine class” belong actually to other vegetation classes on 

the ground. For this region the overall accuracy equaled 

87.46 percent, which is rather good considering average 

accuracies around 80 percent for automatic classification of Landsat imagery (COLEMAN and others, 1990; 

CAMPBELL, 1996).

Surveys for the Discrimination of 

Different Successional Phases in 

Remnants of Araucarian Forests in 

Southern Brazil

In the year 2000 the Paraná State Government has 

mapped all the remnants of Araucarian forests present 

in the State (PROBIO Project) using automatic digital 

classification of Landsat TM imagery. The classification 

results, which included five forest types, were refined 

by ground checks and ancillary data. In 2003, as a part 

of the aerial sketchmapping program, an aerial survey 

was conducted over a sample area in remnants of the 

Araucarian Forest with two main objectives:

To develop an aerial signature for the classes considered in the previous mapping.

To update the year 2000 classification.

For this type of survey the satellite maps were overlaid 

with a 4 km UTM grid, major roads, drainages and the 

polygons resulting from the final digital classification 

made by the Government staff. Before the operational 

flight actually took place, the USDA Forest Service/

Embrapa team and the government staff have flown over 

a demonstration site so that the sketchmappers could be 

trained in recognizing the different forest types.

After the survey was done the first thing to be pointed 

out was the indubitable richness of details one can gain 

from a 300-meter-high flight perspective. Not only the 

forest remnants could be mapped, but also different land 

cover classes such as bare soil and row crops (Fig. 6). 

Depending on the scale of the base map (in this case, 

1:25.000) even the presence or absence of riparian forests 

could be annotated.

The sketchmappers also discussed the benefits and 

trade-offs of superimposing the previous classification 

results on the satellite maps. Due to the dynamic changes 

•

•

•

Figure 2. Cessna 185 Aircraft Used for Both Observer Training 

and Operational Aerial Sketchmap Surveys in Southern 

Brazil.

Figure 3. The Garmin GPSMAP 295 Global Positioning System 

(GPS) Receiver Used in Aerial Sketchmap Surveys.

Figure 4. Flight Lines Established on Satellite Map.
820 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Table 3. Omission and Commission Errors Related to the Causal Agent as 

Determined by Aerial Sketchmapping Surveys.

Causal agent Omission error (%) Commission error (%)

Wood wasp 0 10.71

Monkey 40 0

Wood wasp/monkey 50 0

Chlorosis 0 0

Table 2. Coding system for Aerially Visible Forest Damage Signatures in Southern Brazil.

Damage intensity 

(% of trees affected in 

Host/code Damage type/code plantation or polygon)/code

Araucaria angustifolia/Au Monkey/2 Light (<5%)/L; Heavy (≥ 5%)/H

Pinus spp/Pi Wood wasp/1 Same as above

Monkey/2 Same as above

Armillaria/3 Same as above

Cinara spp/4 Same as above

Defoliation/5 Same as above

Chlorosis or yellowing/6 Same as above

Eucalyptus spp/Eu Chlorosis or yellowing/6 Light (<5%)/L; Heavy (≥ 5%)/H

Figure 5. Forest Damage Map Resulting from an Aerial Sketchmap Survey Over the Region of União da 

Vitória – Paraná State.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 821

Figure 6. Results of the Aerial Sketchmap for the Region of Rio dos Touros Showing Land Use and Native 

Forest Classes.

of land cover classes and also to the subjectiveness in 

defining the forest types it would sometimes be recommended not to overlay any polygons on the base map. 

In fact, the classes considered for the digital classification represented three different successional phases of 

secondary native forest, a forest plantation class and a 

native forest class with 80 percent or more of Araucaria 

trees cover. Excepting the forest plantation class, the 

four other classes resemble so much each other that it is 

rather difficult to perform even a regular classification. 

Many differences concerning location and classification 

of forest types were found in the two survey approaches. 

When considering solely the “native forest” and “nonnative forest” classes, the agreement between the two 

approaches could reach 49 percent in terms of the total 

surveyed area.

The aerial sketchmapping of the Mangueirinha Indian 

Reserve (fig. 7) presented similar results to those obtained by the digital classification only for the polygons 

representing the “intermediate stage” and “araucaria 

dominance,” whose calculated areas differ in about 30 

percent. Major differences between the survey and the 

classification are related to the class “initial stage,” which 

seems to be represented in a larger extent in the aerial 

survey than in the PROBIO classification results. Many 

areas recognized (from the air) as “initial stage” has been 

misclassified as “araucaria dominance.” Confusion arose 

also in the class “advanced stage,” with differences in 

measured areas around 90 percent between the Probio 

and the aerial survey results.

The aerial survey was also concerned with other land 

use classes, such as “bamboo,” which occurs often in 

Araucarian Forests and has lately been considered as a 

threatening factor to the natural regeneration of the species Araucaria angustifolia (parana-pine).

The Forest Reserve of Caçador, in Santa Catarina 

State, was also flown during the 2002 campaign. The 

main objective was to classify the remnants of Araucarian 

Forest inside and outside the Reserve in three Araucaria 

angustifolia (parana-pine) cover classes, which can be 

seen on the resulting map, showed in figure 8. “Au1” labels represent forest patches with more than 80 percent of 

araucaria cover, while “Au2” represent classes between 80 

percent and 20 percent of araucaria cover, and “Au3,” less 

than 20 percent. Pine (Pi) and Eucalyptus (Eu) plantations, 

as well as exploited areas (Ex), were also mapped. These 

results provided the basis for further research involving 

landscape analysis approaches and the visual interpretation of high resolution satellite imagery.

Surveys to Monitor Deforestation in 

Remnants of Araucarian Forests

The most recent campaign carried out by the 

Embrapa team was a survey requested by the Brazilian 

Environmental and Renewable Natural Resources 

Agency (IBAMA) to monitor anthropogenic deforestation in remnants of Araucarian Forests in two different 

areas in Paraná State. The low-altitude flight allowed the 

mapping of 48 points of varying intensities of deforestation, including areas where the process has just begun 

(“deforestation traces”).

The observers used the same flight to check the forest 

plantations for accuracy assessment as well as for the 
822 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

detection of woodwasp infestations (fig. 9). The IBAMA 

staff is now engaged in ground checking operations 

using data (maps, reports and tables) generated by the 

Embrapa GIS.

This last campaign (April, 2004) provided also the 

opportunity for two additional Embrapa employees to 

be trained as aerial observers, thus contributing to the 

consolidation of the technique in Brazil.

Future Steps

Until now four major approaches were identified for 

the use of aerial sketchmap surveys in Southern Brazil:

the detection and mapping of forest damage, mainly 

in – but not limited to – forest plantations;

the assessment of thematic accuracy of other remote 

sensing techniques, like, for instance, digital classification or visual interpretation of satellite imagery; 

the updating of existing forest maps;

the mapping and classifying of forest remnants and 

other environmentally relevant features such as riparian forests, wetlands, etc.

As annual flight campaigns are being carried out, 

the Embrapa aerial observer team is becoming more 

•

•

•

proficient at identification of damage types typical of 

Southern Brazil and is now able to expand the provisional coding system developed during the first years 

of this project.

Forest health researchers are concerned with recent 

infestations of the eucalyptus red gum lerp psyllid in 

Eucalyptus stands located in Paraná and São Paulo States. 

The detection and mapping of forest damage caused by 

this insect seems to be a new challenge for the aerial 

sketchmap surveys in Southern Brazil.

Another important aspect of full-scale implementation 

is prompt ground checking of damaged areas detected 

from the air. In this regard Embrapa is expecting to 

develop partnership with forest plantation owners, who 

would be able to give field support for ground checking 

as well as to provide silvicultural and management information related to the forest stands for which damage 

has been reported.

An interesting issue has arisen after the 2003 flights over 

the Araucarian Forest regions and it is related to the need 

of recording some kind of imagery during the flight. When 

analyzing the survey results, the sketchmappers and the 

government staff pointed out that it would be very useful 

to have some video imagery or aerial pictures to help them 

characterize and identify the aerial signature of the feature, 

Figure 7. Results of Aerial 

Sketchmap Survey (a) and 

Digital Classification (b) for 

the Mangueirinha Indian 

Reserve, Paraná State.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 823

Figure 8. Results of the Aerial 

Sketchmap Survey for the 

Forest Reserve in Caçador, 

Santa Catarina State, Overlaid 

on an IKONOS (NIR-G-B) 

Composition.

vegetation class or phenomenon being studied. This topic 

was discussed during the workshop held in Curitiba, in 

November 2003 and the sketchmap team decided that it 

is worth testing different methods of image acquisition in 

future steps of the aerial sketchmap program.

Significant advances in computer technology, GPS, 

and GIS have led to the interest in the development of 

electronic enhancements, both in Canada and the U.S., to 

allow direct recording of forest damage on maps stored 

in a laptop computer during aerial sketchmap surveys 

(CIESLA, 2000). The USDA Forest Service/Embrapa 

team is now planning to introduce the digital aerial 

sketchmap system in Brazil. Previous feasibility studies concluded that the application of this new technique 

would pose no difficulties for the Brazilian conditions, 

since the base maps used in the surveys are already 

composed and stored in digital format and that the USDA 

Forest Service Forest Health Technology Enterprise team 

can provide some of the software and other equipment 

necessary for the system to operate. It should, thus, be 

tested and implemented in future flight campaigns.

Conclusions

The aerial sketchmap program in Brazil is in full 

development and some facts that have contributed to its 

successful implementation are:
824 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Figure 9. Partial Results of the Aerial Sketchmap Survey for the Monitoring of Deforestation in Remnants of 

Araucarian Forests (Region of Guarapuava – Parana State).

the constant support of USDA Forest Service Forest 

Health Technology Enterprise Team;

through its members, who introduced the aerial 

sketchmapping in Brazil and who were always eager 

to adapt the technology to Brazilian environmental 

and working conditions;

the great extent of forest (natural or planted) present 

in Southern Brazil and the land use dynamics which 

demand new methods for forest monitoring;

the interest of forest owners and public agencies in 

applying the new technology for various purposes;

the interest of Embrapa – being a public research agency – in developing and adapting techniques that will 

contribute to the sustainable use of forest resources.

Flight campaigns in Brazil have demonstrated that 

clearcuts, land use change detection, and other anthropogenic activities in Araucarian Forests may be suitably 

mapped and monitored from the air. The aerial sketchmapping technique represents, therefore, an inexpensive 

and effective alternative to the monitoring and conservation of this endangered biome in Southern Brazil.

References

Campbell, J.B. 1996. Introduction to Remote Sensing. 2nd. Ed. 

New York: The Guilford Press. 622 p. CIESLA, W., A.A. 

Disperati, F.S. Mendes and C. Mendes. 1999. Mapeamento 

aéreo expedito para a classificação da mortalidade de 

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árvores causadas pela vespa-da-madeira (Sirex noctilio) em 

plantações brasileiras de pinus. (Online) Artigos-Florestal, 

Home Fator GIS http://www.fatorgis.com.br/artigos/florest/vespa/vespa.htm., CIESLA, W.M. and others 2002. 

Development of an aerial sketchmap program for detection 

and mapping of forest damage in Brazil. In: Seminário De 

Atualização Em Sensoriamento Remoto E Sistemas De 

Informações Geográficas Aplicados À Engenharia Florestal, 

5., 2002, Curitiba-PR, Brasil. Anais Curitiba : Disperati, 

A.A. & Santos, J.R. dos, p. 31­38.

Ciesla, W.M. 2000. Remote sensing in forest health protection. 

Salt Lake City : USDA Forest Service Remote Sensing 

Applications Center. FHTET Report n. 00-03, 266 p.

Coleman, T.L.; Gudapati, L.; Derrington, J. 1990. Monitoring 

forest plantations using LANDSAT Thematic Mapper data. 

Remote Sensing of Environment, v. 33, p.211-221.

Disperati, A.A. and others. 1998. Landsat TM e fotografias 

aéreas 35 m inclinada no mapeamento de danos causados 

pela vespa-da-madeira. In: Seminário De Atualização 

Em Sensoriamento Remoto E Sistemas De Informações 

Geográficas Aplicados À Engenharia Florestal, 3., 1998, 

Curitiba-PR, Brasil. Anais ... Curitiba : FUPEF, p. 139-

148.

Iede, E.T.; Penteado, S.R.C.; BisoL, J.C. 1988. Primeiro registro de ataque de Sirex noctilio em Pinus taeda no Brasil. 

Embrapa – CNPF, Circular Técnica 20, 12 p.

Oliveira, Y.M.M de; Rosot, M.A.D. 2002. O geoprocessamento 

e as plantações de Pinus. Revista da madeira, Curitiba, v. 

Ed. Esp., p. 42-47, 02 Dez.

Rosot, M.A.D.; Oliveira, Y.M.M de.; Ellenwood, J.; VIANA, 

F. de M.; ZONTA, M. 2003. Evolução e situação atual 

dos reflorestamentos com Pinus spp no Estado do Paraná. 

In: Congresso Florestal Brasileiro, 8., 2003, São Paulo. 

Conferências, Painéis, Trabalhos Convidados e Pôsteres. 

São Paulo: SBEF/SBS, p. 259-259. 2 CD-ROM (disco 2).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 825

Introduction

This paper deals with the relative importance that 

position provides to environmental relevance of cover 

types and structure. Although it is natural to accept that 

spatial arrangement is an important factor that modifies 

the role and weight of those elements that constitute 

environmental quality, applications such as valuation 

of environmental services generally portray poorly this 

hierarchic strategic importance. Using a case study, a 

specific instrumentation is presented. This design uses a 

measure of naturalness weighted by public preferences 

and relative position to segregate which areas contribute 

the most to environmental quality.

Environmental quality, in the context of this paper, 

is the subjective perception about personal welfare associated with human environmental condition. As such, 

a hierarchic scale derived from public preferences is a 

suitable device to generate a value scale to use in land 

classification.

Forest continuity as measured by fragmentation statistics is one of the principal expressions of geographic 

differentiation. Feasibility of self-sustaining populations 

requires sufficiently large gene pools that move around 

genes freely. Considering trees as the most demanding 

of populations, it is convenient to think about genetic 

feasibility in terms of terrain covered by a continuous 

tree canopy. Besides serving as a proxy for most species 

genetic pool, continuity in canopy also represents a number of important ecological functions and environmental 

influences, such as watershed regulation of water flow, 

and soil stability.

Edge effects also have been a matter of attention in 

landscape ecology because they are seen as detrimental 

of the productive performance of timber stands. However, 

edges between wooded areas and open ground are 

gradients that create an interphase between contrasting 

environments, and as such, they represent a valuable 

storage of opportunities and diversity in wildlife habitat, 

and ecological influences in the interface between forested and open ground. Careful handling of opportunities 

and hazards in edge environments is one new priority 

in forest management that resulted from advances in 

landscape theory.

The global trend to achieve social efficiency in environmental services markets has developed in Mexico 

into a scheme where government sets up arbitrary sums 

of money to allocate as subsidy for those landowners 

whose properties contain specific vegetation covers in 

good natural condition. Since stocking, composition and 

other spatial independent attributes are used as criteria in 

selecting whose land deserves subsidy, no consideration 

Naturalness as a Paradigm for Environmental Services 

Assessment

Martín Alfonso Mendoza B., Ana Lid del Angel P., and Gabriel Díaz

Abstract—The municipality of Coatepec, Veracruz, Mexico, has been the first in Mexico 

to set up a purse and a payment scheme to pay for environmental services. The scheme 

at Coatepec focuses on water resources, though many other similar programs exist 

throughout the world. Here a theoretical analysis permits to study and understand the 

dominant effect that position and arrangement play in the relevance of specific forms 

of land cover and stand structure in regard to a differential importance to overall level 

of environmental quality that society enjoys. The driving force that makes a difference 

in the importance of a specific stand is the degree of resemblance to pristine conditions 

in its structure and functions, modified by the strategic position on the ground respect 

resource position and users location in the watershed. Attributes of natural conditions 

were inferred from landscape ecology theory, and from historic records from the region. These attributes are then converted to importance values for a catalog of current 

conditions present in the region, and applied over a land classification map. Value estimates are drawn from an arbitrary scale that can be translated into a certain payment 

for environmental services rendered. These latter translation requires a definition of a 

specific purse of public money, or else, a theoretical estimate of service demands from 

stakeholders and affected regional population. The estimate of environmental services 

value is presented in a map and a payment scale in tabular form, for conditions in the 

Coatepec municipality in 2002.
826 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

is given to landscape factors such as fragmentation, connectivity, edges, and strategic position. In this paper a 

contention is made that similar pieces of land will have 

contrasting weight over the amount and quality of the 

most important environmental services, depending on 

its position, extent, amount of edges, and chances for 

connectivity. Water is the resource that this study uses as 

example because it is also the resource whose services 

are the foremost presence in the public mind, and in the 

government declarations.

The design presented is a scheme that assesses environmental quality of pieces of land judging the presence 

of characteristic elements expected in natural conditions, 

weighted by position in the watershed (highlands being 

more influential), nearness to water and riparian zones, 

continuity in canopy (best if <10 000 ha, and >50 ha), 

minimal edge condition, near other wooded blocks (<200 

m). Weights are defined subjectively, following hierarchic preferences of the local public.

One study case, the municipality of Coatepec, 

Veracruz, is presented as example, and as a means to 

explain the scheme and its properties and capabilities. 

Coatepec is a small municipality (around 14 000 ha), just 

20 km away from the state capital of Xalapa, is part of the 

most important coffee producing region of Mexico. The 

mountain range of Sierra Madre Oriental gives Coatepec 

a mountainous setting with steep valleys descending on 

the Golf of Mexico’s coastal plains. Coatepec is the first 

place in Mexico to introduce a program of subsidies for 

environmental services, and its peculiarities are favorable to research because they display many different 

vegetation types, degrees of land development, and steep 

topography that offers varied resource scenarios, from 

supply of water for cities, an irrigation district, water 

sports and fishing, channel stability upstream, and flood 

hazards downstream.

Methods

A land elevation model and vegetation classification 

was taken from INEGI. Public opinion was gathered 

though a survey of random interviews using a fixed 

response questionnaire. The questionnaire uses non 

monetary valuation questions to elicit the interviewee 

choice of preferences regarding environment, and public 

spending on environment related programs. Finally, description of current structures and condition for all cover 

types present was obtained by sampling random points 

along regional transects, and measuring and registering 

specific attributes of natural and developed conditions 

for a given land cover type.

Definitions

Natural cover types:

Temperate mixed conifer forest

Cloud forest

Medium tropical forest

Low tropical forest.

Developed conditions and transformed cover types:

Temperate forest: prairie, grassland, homestead

Cloud forest: coffee plantation, cultivated grassland, 

city, town, rustic residential area

Medium tropical forest: fruit orchard

Low tropical forest: intensive cropping (sugar cane, 

produce), annual cropping (corn), grassland, town

Seral stages of natural vegetation:

Mapping criteria adapted from Oliver and Larson 

(1990):

Initiation – One story, no crown differentiation, any 

age, but usually young pre-reproductive, little or no 

fuel load.

Exclusion – One story, crown dominance, some density related mortality, some fuel load of fine fuels, 

any age.

Reinitiation – Two stories, some medium to large 

openings, some fuel load, some snags.

Diversification – More than two stories, all sorts of 

openings in diverse stages of regeneration, considerable levels of fuel, some large woody debris but seldom 

fully degraded, many snags, rare catastrophic events 

but many and frequent small disturbances, many large 

trees, some reaching maximum longevity.

Old growth – Large and old trees, numerous small 

disturbances with regeneration of every possible age, 

large accumulation of sizable woody debris, all fully 

decayed including large snags heart rotten, topped.

Special Conditions

Riparian zone

Roads, trails, highways

Assessment

Transects across the region permitted sampling of all 

cover types and the variability of their conditions. Area 

contains not enough repetitions or ample zones of a single 

cover and condition, so sampling was selective with criteria emphasis on representivity, spread of distribution, 

and the inclusion of as much variability as it could be 

detected during a preliminary survey.

After selective choice of a location in a given transect, sample point was randomly selected within the 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 827

apparent extent of continuous cover of the same kind. All 

conditions of the cover present at the sampled location 

were sampled, whether they were seral stages, defining 

attributes for the cover and condition, and special conditions such as houses, cities, or other man made structures, 

stretches of dirt or paved roads, and segments of channel 

and riparian conditions. When more than one special 

condition was present, or if enough length of linear conditions, randomization defined the sample position.

Point variables were measured or registered at the 

sample point. Area measurements were taken from a 

relaskope plot centered at the sample point. Length observations and measurements were taken in stretches of 

20 m of road or stream.

Field data was summarized. The list of values in a 

cover and condition combination constituted its description for purposes of land classification and assessment of 

environmental quality. Each polygon with a given cover 

and condition was given a relative value of 1 if it were in 

a natural condition, more than 50 ha in area, less than 2 

times the perimeter of an equivalent circle in edges, had 

at least 5 % of small openings inside, was inside a riparian 

area, and in the upper third of the watershed in elevation. 

Weights reducing the initial value were added for each 

factor missing. Weight value sought to create a spread of 

values representative of the observed variation in that criterion during the field transects. Developed and damaged 

sites were evaluated according to the apparent suitability 

of the current condition for providing a similar effect as the 

natural covers; for instance, city environment is judged as 

an efficient cover for regulating the water resource, while 

annual crops are highly ineffective in the same way.

Valuation

A photo mosaic with images depicting characteristic 

elements of most local cover types and conditions was 

presented to a random sample of persons in the locality. 

Randomization was done by home or work location. 

Control responses were taken from a set of scientists 

and government officers, and a set of persons randomly 

selected at the state capital of Xalapa, a large city 20 

km away of the study area, and a community with extraordinary leverage in land management policies and 

decisions in the region. Sampled individuals were asked 

to identify which images are the most natural, which 

they felt provided the most environmental services, and 

which of the environments represented they liked best, or 

would like to see in their region. Then, they were asked 

their opinion and assessment of government spending 

in environmental programs. This question was paired 

to the respondent’s expressed need for a better environment, if any.

Considering that the local and national government 

already is allocating a certain budget for environmental programs, the relative share for Coatepec can be 

considered as a purse that is to be divided among those 

landowners possessing land that provides or protects 

environmental quality. With this thought in mind, the 

level of public funding could be divided by the study 

area and then multiplied by the relative worth factor 

previously estimated.

Results

Survey results indicate that there is an overwhelming 

satisfaction with the current level of environmental quality in Coatepec, and therefore, the public sees no need to 

increase government spending, nor pass on the cost of 

environmental services and externalities to businesses, 

farms, nor consumers. Additional verbal comments from 

some interviewees explain that the only environmental 

concern at this point is the need for government to assure no additional environmental degradation, nor land 

development of any sort. These results can be interpreted 

as an unwillingness to pay for additional environmental 

services or quality. See the geographic distribution of 

cover classes in figure 1.

The total study area involves 69223 ha, practically 

all of them in a single watershed drained by La Antigua 

river. Forested area is 4452 ha, split into 1004 fragments 

of up to 214 ha; only 31 fragments (998 ha) can be considered functionally as forests. Coffee plantations and 

other orchards with forest like functionality occupies 

5111 ha, while other agriculture and animal production 

uses 22204 ha. Urban development has used an additional 

3793 ha. Considering a 200 m buffer zone, riparian conditions add up to 1857 ha, but only 727 ha are forested 

and they contain.

In all the study area only one polygon had a relative 

worth of one, and two had a greater than 0.9. The rest are 

fragments of vegetation away from riparian or highland 

conditions, and therefore unlikely to seriously enhance 

the region’s environmental quality, therefore, it would be 

socially inefficient to pay subsidies to these landowners 

until they, could change their land management to a more 

socially responsible manner.

Persons interviewed were asked if they could identify 

the cover type, assess the degree of good or bad environmental condition, and finally, express their relative 

personal preference.

Data sampled included verification of cover indicators, 

as defined above. Then elements defining naturality were 

listed in each locality.
828 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Cover Distribution

Potential cover (natural) is assumed to be as defined 

by INEGI (map of veg. cover).

For each polygon in the map was estimated area, net 

area deducted from edge effects (a 30 m buffer was assumed), and distance to the closest polygon of the same 

cover type. Valuation in the previous phase was weighted 

subjectively in a 0 to 1 scale to consider deductions if 

polygon net area were less than 50 ha. If a polygon had 

less than 50 ha, the area of all polygons of the same kind 

within a 200 m distance were added before deducting 

the weight.

References

Oliver, C.D., Larson, B.C. 1990. Forest stand dynamics. 

McGraw-Hill, New York, USA 467 p.

Figure 1. Coatepec study area forested fragments and vegetation cover types.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 829

Introduction

Landscape ecology has brought attention to spatial 

relationships that explain many of the most important 

ecological processes. Keeping track of disturbance patterns is one recurrent theme in spatial studies within 

landscape ecology. Introducing these advances into forest 

management planning is the purpose of this paper.

The particular case of Mexican forestry favors one 

particular design of landscape management. After almost a century of harvesting in commercial timberland 

stand structure has changed in a way that characteristic 

elements of late successional stages have been drastically reduced, while the simpler and younger stand 

structures typical of early succession predominate. 

Fragmentation and connectivity have steadily worsened. 

Stand structure demands specific silvicultural regimes, 

known as biopaths, to gradually replenish elements that 

define mature and old stages and functions. Meanwhile, 

adjacency and time sequence in treatments need to keep 

tabs on fragmentation and connectivity. Designing a 

form of forest planning that will fulfill both aims is 

requires the use of a specific heuristic such as the one 

presented here.

Case Study

El Llanito is a forest comprising a set of five contiguous forested tracks controlled by a single timber 

company, Sánchez Monroy Cia. S. de R.L. de C.V., and 

managed by a single consulting firm, Servicios Forestales 

Profesionales Mascota S.C. The 3357 ha of El Llanito 

contains 2017 ha of commercial timber land covered 

with mixed conifers. These biological and socioeconomic 

conditions are representative of many other forest in the 

southwest of Jalisco.

In 2002, a new forest plan was needed to guide 

the fourth entry in the forest. The steady hand of a 

A Heuristic for Landscape Management

Martín Alfonso Mendoza B., FIPRODEFO, Bruselas 626 Col. Moderna, 44190 Guadalajara, 

Jalisco, México

Jesús Zepeta S. and Juan José Fajardo A., Consultoría Ambiental SC, Emiliano Zapata 96, 

46900 Mascota, Jalisco, México

Abstract—The development of landscape ecology has stressed out the importance 

of spatial and sequential relationships as explanations to forest stand dynamics, and 

for other natural ambiences. This presentation offers a specific design that introduces 

spatial considerations into forest planning with the idea of regulating fragmentation and 

connectivity in commercial forest stands when these stands are subject to silvicultural 

regimes for conversion to a condition similar to pristine. El Llanito, a group of forest tracts 

privately owned in Atenguillo, Jalisco, Mexico, is under a forest plan that will serve as an 

example of landscape management. In this plan, the harvest schedule from SICODESI, a 

traditional Mexican forest management method, is used as the initial feasible solution in 

a heuristic that introduces successive changes in prescription, and timing of treatment, 

to improve the solution features, considering fragmentation and connectivity specs, 

and the proportional balance of successional stand structures. Results in the example 

case show a clear trend towards a more balanced distribution of successional stages, 

and a harvest level comparable to historic levels. There is a slight decline in fragmentation and connectivity goals, much of which can be explained by the sizable amount 

of area damaged by pests and fire in the previous cycle. This outcome is a welcomed 

improvement over the features displayed by the SICODESI solution, which could have 

been chosen if landscape management were not available.
830 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

professional forester has conducted a careful and continuous, long term operation in El Llanito. The residual 

forest structure still contains considerable stocking and 

opportunities for silviculture, hence offering a benevolent setting where new ideas such as landscape forest 

management, can be tested with ease.

Silvicultural Regimes

Background

The initial entries in El Llanito followed selective 

criteria that fostered liquidation of old-growth elements, 

but retained most of the former structural diversity and 

canopy stories. Difficulties with diminishing regeneration 

was one factor in a policy change in 1992 towards evenaged silviculture. For a decade these efforts advanced in 

developing high yield, young, single story stands, and 

solved the regeneration concerns of the past through applying seedtree cuts to the most mature stands.

In the previous cutting cycle catastrophic events 

impacted a third of the forest area, reducing 9 percent 

standing volume in the commercial portion of the forest. 

Neither selection nor even-aged regimes were prepared 

to handle recurring considerable pests and fire damages, 

because both assume no catastrophic events. They only 

deduce a small penalty to adjust standing volume estimates. However, the whole region is prone to serious 

fire and pest incidents that reach El Llanito, even though 

it is located at the top of the mountain range known as 

Sierra Occidental.

Timber Regimes

Under the new landscape management, each stand is 

visited by a professional silviculturist and prescribed. 

Mature one story stands generally are assigned for final 

harvest. Natural regeneration is obtained from seedtrees. 

Sites with slope or erosion potential receive a lighter cut 

similar to protection cut. Areas with multiple canopy 

stories, and low productivity stands are regenerated using 

selection cut. All other stands are prescribed thinning, 

except if stocking is so low that it would be uneconomic 

to log.

Special Regimes

Crests and riparian zones are prescribed special 

biopaths that pretend to reconstruct natural conditions. 

Presence of very large trees with long crowns, plenty of 

large woody debris in advanced decay, minimal organic 

matter and small fuels, dense understory with visibility 

under 50 m are desirable attributes that are retained when 

present, and fostered when absent.

Best Management Practices

Road network was carefully surveyed to define stretches of road that could be closed and vegetated, specially 

shortcuts and roads near riparian conditions. Some of the 

access roads had small portions in need of realignment, 

but most were prescribed a set of improvements in line 

with FAO’s low impact logging specifications (Dykstra 

and Heinrich 1996).

Forest Planning and Regulation

Net revenue optimization was the initial approximation 

to a harvest schedule for the planning cycle 2002-2011. 

This criterion is in line with the private nature of forest 

ownership, and interests of the logging firm. Maintaining 

an even flow of harvest similar in amount to the previous cycle was a second level screening criterion. Last, 

feasible combinations of stand, treatment and annual 

cutting area allocation were required to follow a rule 

that every annual cutting area should at least maintain 

fragmentation and connectivity stats.

Figure 1. Current stand 

conditions (A), and 

landscape management expected stand 

structures (B). El Llanito, Jalisco, México 

2002-2011 forest plan.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 831

Results

Figure 1 depicts graphically differences between unconditional revenue maximization, and the final round of 

choices in harvest schedule. A total of 300 stands (93.5 

%) received regimes different from the unconditional 

recommendation prescribed by the silviculturist. Most 

changes were from options where those that allowed the 

revised prescription to be coherent with the current stand 

condition. This meant to induce an accelerated change 

to latter seral structures in 119 stands, and move to early 

successional stages the other 181 stands.

References

Dykstra, Dennis P., Heinrich, Rudolf , 1996. FAO model code 

of forest harvesting practice Rome : Food and Agriculture 

Organization of the United Nations, 85p.

Oliver, C.D., Larson, B.C. 1990. Forest stand dynamics. 

McGraw-Hill, New York, USA 467 p.
832 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The aim of this is paper is to provide a conceptual framework for the session: “The role of web-based 

Geographic Information Systems in supporting sustainable management.” The concepts of sustainability, 

sustainable forest management, Web Services, Distributed 

Geographic Information Systems, interoperability, Open 

Specifications, and Open Source Software are defined 

and their relevance and relationships are explained.

Due to the multi-faceted role of the natural resources, 

and more specifically of the forest resources, sustainable forest management necessitates decision-making 

which recognizes and incorporates: a) diverse ecological, economic, and social processes; b) a multitude of 

variables; and c) conflicting objectives and constraints. 

Furthermore, all these elements most be considered at 

different spatial and temporal scales.

One thing is to clearly defined sustainability and sustainable forest management and other is to make these 

concepts operational through decision-making processes, 

decision support systems, and management strategies. 

Most studies have focus on either the ecological, economic, or social aspects of the forest management. 

Few have aimed to address these three aspects at the 

same time into specific decision-making processes or 

support systems (Varma, Ferguson and Wild, 2000). 

Also, if Communication and Information Technologies 

(CIT) such as the World Wide Web (WWW or the web), 

Geographic Information Systems (GIS), or computer 

based decision support systems, are part of the tools used 

in the implementation of the concept of sustainability, 

the sustainability of these tools should also be addressed 

as part of a comprehensive sustainable management 

approach.

The ability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) 

to deal with spatial and non-spatial information has long 

be recognized as a notable feature that can contribute 

significantly to deal with the complexity of diverse information sources, information management activities, and 

analyses required to develop sustainable management 

alternatives (Cowen, 1990; Varma, Ferguson and Wild, 

2000; Wing and Bettinger, 2003).

The geo-processing principles and functionality 

found in GIS systems are moving out of a tightly defined 

niche into the information technology (IT) mainstream. 

Isolated, standalone systems are being replaced by integrated components, and large applications are being 

replaced by smaller, more versatile applications that 

work together transparently across networks. Of these, 

the World Wide Web (WWW or the web) is becoming 

the core medium for distributed computing in IT generally and in the geo-processing domain specifically 

(Hecht 2002a). In other words, GIS systems, once focused on data and tools implemented with client-server 

architecture, now are evolving to a Web Services model 

(Dangermond 2002). In this new architecture the web is 

used for delivering not just data, but geo-processing functionality that can be wrapped in interoperable software 

components called Web Services. These components 

can be plugged together to build larger, more comprehensive services and/or applications (Hecht 2002b). 

Interoperability between heterogeneous environments, 

systems and data is fundamental for the implementation 

of this Web Services model. Interoperability is achieved 

by complying with Open Specifications (OS).

Distributed GIS Systems, Open Specifications and 

Interoperability: How do They Relate to the Sustainable 

Management of Natural Resources?

Rafael Moreno-Sanchez, Department of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University 

of Colorado at Denver, Denver, CO

Abstract—The aim of this is paper is to provide a conceptual framework for the session: 

“The role of web-based Geographic Information Systems in supporting sustainable management.” The concepts of sustainability, sustainable forest management, Web Services, 

Distributed Geographic Information Systems, interoperability, Open Specifications, and 

Open Source Software are defined and their relevance and relationships are explained. 

The potential contributions of web-based GIS systems to natural resources sustainable 

management is highlighted.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 833

The remainder of this paper will present each of the 

previously mentioned concepts and how they relate to 

each other. The importance of web-based GIS systems 

is highlighted. Finally, future directions for development 

and research are suggested.

Defining Sustainability 

and Sustainable Forest 

Management

Sustainability has been defined in many different 

ways. The fuzziness associated with its various definitions is typical of a “young paradigm” (Bosshard, 2000). 

Sustainability can be understood more as a journey 

rather than a destination. As managers aim to make the 

concept operational they learn from their experiences 

and adjust not only the methods used but the concept 

itself. A broad definition of sustainability is: “meeting 

the needs of the present without compromising the 

ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 

(WCED, 1987). Sustainable forest management involves managing forests as ecosystems, and it involves 

an integration of: a) environmental benefits and values: 

b) socio-economic and cultural benefits to meet human 

needs; and c) institutional arrangements to formulate 

and implement appropriate policies and programs and 

to monitor their effectiveness. These three elements are 

dynamic and change over time. (Canadian Council of 

Forest Ministers, 1997).

Defining Open Specifications 

(OS), Interoperability, and 

Open Source Software (OSS)

Open Specifications (OS) provide software engineers 

and developers information about a given specification as well as specific programming rules and advice 

for implementing the interfaces and/or protocols that 

enable interoperability between systems. The Open 

GIS Consortium Inc. (OGC) (http://www.opengis.org) 

defines interoperability as “the ability for a system or 

components of a system to provide information portability and interapplication cooperative process control. 

In the context of the OGC specifications this means 

software components operating reciprocally (working 

with each other) to overcome tedious batch conversion 

tasks, import/export obstacles, and distributed resource 

access barriers imposed by heterogeneous processing 

environments and heterogeneous data.”

Herring (1999) and Kottman (1999) present an in depth 

discussion of the OpenGIS Data Model and the OGC 

process for the creation of OS respectively. Software 

products can be submitted for testing their interfaces 

for compliance with OGC OpenGIS Implementation 

Specifications (see http://www.opengis.org/techno/

implementation.htm for the most recent approved and 

in process specifications). Initially, the only OpenGIS 

Specifications that products could conform to were the 

OpenGIS Simple Features Specifications for CORBA, 

OLE/COM and SQL (McKee, 1998), now there are 

eleven. Within computer environments there are many 

different aspects of interoperability (Vckovski, 1998): a) 

Independent applications running on the same machine 

and operating system, i.e., interoperability through a 

common hardware interface; b) application A reading 

data written by another application B, i.e., interoperability through a common data format; and c) application 

A communicating with application B by means of interprocess communication or network infrastructure, 

i.e., interoperability through a common communication protocol. Besides technical issues, there are also 

interoperability topics at higher levels of abstraction 

such as semantic barriers (Harvey, 1999; Seth, 1999). A 

system based on the OS later described would be able 

to achieve a level of interoperability of the second type 

above described.

According to Hecht (2002a) interoperability is 

desirable for the following reasons: a) it allows for communication between information providers and end users 

without requiring that both have the same geo-processing 

or viewer software; b) no single Geographic Information 

System (GIS), mapping tool, imaging solution or database answers every need; c) there are large amounts of 

database records with a description of location that have 

the potential to become spatial data, and also, advances 

in several technologies (e.g. GPS integrated into mobile 

devices) are increasing the amount of database records 

with location information; d) the number of software 

companies offering components to deal with geographic 

information is growing; e) it is more efficient to collect 

data once and maintain them in one place. (This is particularly cost effective if communities of users can find, 

access and use the information online, so they don’t need 

to access, retrieve and maintain whole files and databases 

of information for which others are responsible); f) the 

ability to seamlessly combine accurate, up-to-date data 

from multiple sources opens new possibilities for improved decision making and makes data more valuable; 

and g) the ability for multiple users, including non-GIS 

experts, to use a particular set of data (perhaps at different levels with different permissions) also makes 

the data more valuable. Gardels (1997) discusses how 
834 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

compliance with OGC’s OpenGIS specifications and the 

resulting interoperability can contribute to integrating 

distributed heterogeneous environments into on-line 

environmental information systems (EIS). He points to 

three technical strategies (federation, catalogs, and data 

mining) for the integration of these systems, and how 

they are heavily depended on interoperability among 

diverse data sources, formats, and models. He concludes 

that properly designed geodata access and analysis tools, 

combined with open environmental information systems, 

can provide sophisticated decision support to the users 

of geographic information.

Two organizations have been coordinating the development of the most relevant open specifications 

used in creating web-based GIS systems: The OpenGIS 

Consortium Inc. (OGC) (http://www.opengis.org), and 

the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) (http://www.

w3.org). To this date the W3C has created more than 

forty technical specifications (http://www.w3.org/TR/). 

As of January 2002, the OGC has adopted nine OpenGIS 

Implementation Specifications and 11 candidate specifications are in the works (Hecht 2002c; a roadmap to the 

specifications work is presented at http://www.opengis.

org/roadmap/index.htm).

Briefly, Open Source Software (OSS) are programs 

whose licenses give users the freedom to run the program 

for any purpose, to modify the program, and to freely 

redistribute either the original or modified program without further limitations or royalty payments (http://www.

opensource.org/docs/definition.php). Among the most 

well known OSS projects there are the Linux operating system and the Apache web server. Some times the 

term Open Technologies is used to refer to these projects and others such as XML, HTML, TCP/IP, and Java 

technology. A comprehensive list of GIS-related OSS 

can be found at http://opensourcegis.org/. According to 

Wheeler (2002) OSS reliability, performance, scalability, 

security, and total cost of ownership are at least as good 

as or better than its proprietary competition, and under 

certain circumstances, they are a superior alternative to 

their proprietary counterparts.

Defining Web-based GIS, Web 

Services and Distributed GIS 

Systems

The Internet has changed how GIS data and processing 

are accessed, shared, and manipulated. Internet GIS or 

web-based GIS (we will use both terms interchangeably, 

although strictly they are not the same) is a research 

and application area that utilizes the Internet and other 

internetworking systems (including wireless communications and intranets) to facilitate the access, processing, 

and dissemination of geographic information and spatial 

analysis knowledge (Peng and Tsou, 2003).

Web Services are interoperable, self-contained, selfdescribing, module components that can communicate 

with each other over the WWW (Peng and Tsou, 2003). 

The OGC envisions that Web Services will allow future 

applications to be assembled from multiple, networkenabled geoprocessing and location services. The GIS 

Web Service is a vendor-neutral interoperable framework 

for web-based discovery, access, integration, analysis, 

exploitation, and visualization of multiple online geodata 

sources, sensor-derived information, and geoprocessing 

capabilities (OGC, 2001).

The development of GIS technology has closely mirrored the development of computer technologies. It has 

evolved from mainframe GIS, to desktop GIS, to client/

server GIS architectures, to the most recent paradigm 

Distributed GIS or Distributed GIServices. Distributed 

GIServices are Web Services, they represents a dramatic 

departure from the traditional client/server model. Rather 

than relying on desktop GIS programs, Distributed GIS, 

when fully implemented, does not necessarily require 

the user to install GIS programs on the user’s desktop. 

Distributed GIServices are built using distributed-component technology, which can connect to and interact 

with multiple and heterogeneous systems and platforms 

without the constraints of traditional client/server architectures (Montgomery, 1997). Distributed-component 

frameworks break up the client and server sides of an 

application into smart components that can interoperate 

across operating systems, networks, languages, applications, tools, and multi-vendor hardware. Currently there 

are three major infrastructures for distributed-component 

technology: CORBA, DCOM and .NET, and Java technology. Under a Distributed GIServices architecture, 

there is no difference between a client and a server. 

Every GIS node embeds GIS programs and geodata 

and can become a client or a server based on the task 

at hand. Furthermore, in this architecture components 

are interoperable and can be downloaded to create adhoc GIS system to satisfy specific users’ needs. These 

systems rely on the Internet and wireless networks for 

data and processing communication. Users can access 

the GIS analysis tools and data from anywhere with 

Internet access or wireless data service coverage. The 

client could be a desktop computer, a laptop computer, 

a Personal Digital Assistant (PDA), or a mobile phone 

(Peng and Tsou, 2003). A Distributed GIS is defined 

as a network centric (wired or wireless) GIS tool that 

uses the Internet or a wireless network as a primary 

means of providing access to distributed data and other 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 835

information, disseminating spatial information, and conducting GIS analysis (Peng and Tsou, 2003).

Distributed GIS systems have the following characteristics: a) they make use of integrated dynamic 

client/server architecture, i.e. every node in the system 

can behave as a server or a client depending on the task 

at hand; b) they are web-based; c) they are composed 

of several nodes found in different locations, and these 

nodes are dynamically linked (data and applications are 

kept current because they are maintained at one location 

in the network); d) they are cross platform (not limited to 

any kind of machine or operating system), and interoperable (they can work transparently with other components 

that comply with the same Open Specifications); and e) 

ideally, they do not need locally installed data and GIS 

software. Figure 1 presents a hypothetical Distributed 

GIS system.

The Relevance of the 

Previously Presented 

Concepts to the Sustainable 

Management of Natural 

Resources

The evolution of GIS towards a Web Services architecture is moving us closer to the delivery of the full 

potential of GIS technology to contribute to address some 

of the most challenging informational needs for making 

the concept of sustainability operational. GIS has long 

be acknowledged as a key tool to deal with the large 

amounts of spatial and non-spatial data from different 

sources, at different spatial and temporal scales, and to 

carry out the analyses required to support the creation 

of sustainable management alternatives.

How do the technologies described in the previous sections relate to each other? Anderson and Moreno-Sanchez 

(2003) make a detailed presentation of these relationships. 

Briefly, compliance with Open Specifications enables 

interoperability of data and applications. Let’s talk first 

about OS that enable interoperability at the data level. 

One of the most important Open Specifications (OS) for 

the development of web-based information systems is the 

Extended Markup Language (XML). XML is a World 

Wide Web Consortium (W3C) OS and a subset of the 

Standard Generalized Markup Language (SGML) [ISO 

8879] (http://www.w3.org/TR/1998/). XML uses pairs of 

text-based tags, enclosed in parentheses, to describe the 

data. These tags make the information passed across the 

Internet “self describing” (Waters 1999). XML satisfies 

two compelling requirements, firstly it separates data 

from presentation, and secondly, it transmits data between applications. XML is a metalanguage, for example, 

a language that describes other languages (Boumphrey 

et al. 1998; http://www.xml.com). These languages are 

called XML schemas.

The OGC has developed the Geographic Markup 

Language (GML) specification (http://www.opengis.net/

gml/02-069/GML2-12.html). This Open Specification 

is an XML schema for the encoding for the transport 

and storage of geographic information, including both 

the spatial and non-spatial properties of geographic 

features. In GML the geometries and attributes of geographic layers are represented within XML tags, again, 

this brings forth all the advantages of XML’s openness, 

transportability, and interoperability. GML is designed 

to support interoperability and does so through the provision of basic geometry tags (all systems that support 

GML use the same geometry tags), a common data model 

(features/properties), and a mechanism for creating and 

sharing application schemas (GML 2.1.2 specification at 

http://www.opengis.net/gml/02-069/GML2-12.html).

Figure 1. Example of a Distributed GIServices 

system. Each node in the system can 

serve as a client or a server and they 

are dynamically linked. The nodes in the 

system can be distributed in different 

geographical locations. Each data set or 

application is maintained in one place, 

any changes to them are immediately 

available to all the other nodes or users. 

All communications take place over the 

WWW.
836 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

GML will become the dominant format for the distribution of geographic data. For example, in Europe the 

British Ordnance Survey is using GML to deliver the 

Digital National Framework on the web and to mobile 

devices (Holland 2001; http://www.ordinancesurvey.

co.uk/dnf/home.htm). In the hypothetical Distributed 

GIS system in figure 1 all geographic data would be in 

GML format. All non-spatial data contained in Database 

Management Systems (DBMS) would be input and output in XML format. All the distributed components of the 

system would be able to read and write GML and XML 

hence creating interoperability at the data level among 

the components.

To enable interoperability between the applications in 

the system, each of the distributed components in the system would have to be developed complying with OS for 

interprocess communication. For example, the following 

OS are important when developing interoperable webbased functionality (http://www.opengis.org/specs/). The 

Web Map Services (WMS) OGC Open Specification 

provides three operations protocols (GetCapabilities, 

GetMap, and GetFeatureInfo) in support of the creation 

and display of registered and superimposed map-like 

views of information that come simultaneously from 

multiple sources that are both remote and heterogeneous. 

The Web Map Features (WMF) OGC Open Specification 

describes data manipulation operations on OpenGIS® 

Simple Features (feature instances) such that servers 

and clients can “communicate” at the feature level, 

i.e. individual feature instead of “pictures” (like in the 

case of WMS) can be transferred between clients and 

servers. The Web Map Coverage (WMC) OGC Open 

Specification extends the WMS interface to allow access 

to geospatial “coverages” (in OGC terminology these 

are raster layers) that represent values or properties of 

geographic locations, rather than WMS generated maps 

(pictures).

Open Source Software (OSS) offers an alternative to 

proprietary web-GIS, DBMS, and web server software. 

The advantages and disadvantages of using these OSS to 

create web-based spatial information systems are detailed 

in Anderson and Moreno-Sanchez (2003).

A Distributed GIS system would offer the characteristics and advantages of interoperability listed by Hecht 

(2002a) in section three of this paper. Specific data sets 

(spatial and non-spatial) could be maintained in one 

location with the benefits of increase consistency, easy 

of maintenance, and security. Specific GIS geo-processing functionality could be offered as Web Services, for 

example a buffer function, an overlay function, or more 

complex spatial modeling procedures could be invoked 

or downloaded to integrate an adhoc GIS system to support a specific decision-making process. Individuals or 

companies, by simply complying with OS could develop 

very specific or sophisticated modular functionality 

that could be easily and transparently integrated into 

a Distributed GIS system. Up-to-date data and functionality could be seamlessly integrated from multiple 

sources without the need for import/export processes, 

download of data, or software extensions. Finally, in an 

ideal Distributed GIS implementation, end users would 

not need GIS software or data installed locally in their 

machines.

We can easily imagine how all the above-mentioned 

capabilities would be relevant for supporting sustainable 

natural resources management approaches. Instead of 

creating large decision support systems developed by 

a single agency, company or group of individuals, the 

Web Services and distributed systems approach leverages the resources (data sets, Information Technology 

know-how, and specific expertise) and the creativity of 

the whole community of interested parties in the problem. 

Different federal, state agencies, or private companies, 

would maintain specific spatial and non-spatial data sets, 

as well as geo-processing functionality and make them 

available as Web Services. For example, WMS, WFS, or 

WCS would be used for the distribution of spatial data. 

If necessary, these organizations could send or receive 

geographic data in GML format (or non-spatial data in 

some XML schema) to other nodes in the system, or 

authorized end users. Metadata for spatial and non-spatial data sets would be kept in XML format and would 

integrate a searchable directory of resources available to 

any of the distributed GIS system components and end 

users. Individuals, public and private organizations could 

develop interoperable components to address specific 

analytical or processing needs, and these components, 

once accepted, could be made immediately available to 

all the nodes in the distributed system as well as to end 

users. End users would not need high-end computers or 

expensive GIS or DBMS software to interact with the 

distributed system. In and ideal distributed system deployment they would not need local specialized software 

(a web browser would suffice) or local data.

Much work has been done on the development of 

web-based participatory planning systems to incorporate 

stakeholders input into natural resources management 

decision-making processes (Kangas and Store, 2003; 

King, 2002; Kingston, Carver, Evans and Turton, 2000; 

Laukkanen, Kangas and Kangas, 2001;Varma, Ferguson, 

and Wild, 2000). The systems created through these efforts could be redesigned to interoperate with the rest of 

the components in a distributed system. They could take 

advantage of the rest of the resources available in the 

system, and through their output provide input to other 

components such as optimization routines to generated 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 837

management plans. In other words, the integration of 

more powerful decision-support systems would be easier 

in distributed-components architecture.

Conclusions

To this day all the above-mentioned capabilities have 

not been fully implemented in a Distributed GIS system, 

however, constant technological developments, and the 

spread of the necessary technical knowledge will make 

this possible in the very short term. The most popular 

commercial GIS software vendors are incorporating 

plug-ins to be able to read and write data in GML format, 

make use of WMS, WFS, and WCS. Sooner rather than 

later federal and state agencies will start to use GML as 

the dominant format for their data.

There is a need to develop small prototype Distributed 

GIS implementations to demonstrate the capabilities 

of this architecture, expose some of its limitations, and 

point to the areas that need more research to create the 

large distributed systems that are required to address 

sustainability problems at different spatial and temporal 

scales.

If tools such as Distributed GIS systems and Decision 

Support Systems are used in developing sustainable natural resources management approaches, the sustainability 

of these tools also must be addressed as part of the whole 

sustainable management approach. Little research has 

been done on this regard.

Finally, as for any web-based information tool, broader 

issues of equality, accessibility, and environmental, social and economic impacts of these technologies need 

to be evaluated. It has been suggested that the birth 

of Information Societies brought about by the use of 

Communication and Information Technologies could 

lead to new approaches to sustainability and sustainable 

growth (Bohlin, 2001; Ducatel, 2001). These issues are 

becoming of strategic importance and fundamental to 

long-term prosperity and security for any nation or region of the world seeking to have influence in the 21st 

century.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 839

Introduction

Growing demands for geospatially explicit information are emerging as a result of complex sustainability 

challenges. This plus the technological changes that are 

taking place are accelerating the rate at which traditional 

approaches to statistical estimation and modeling are being transformed to meet the new needs of the Geospatial 

Information Age. Driven by these trends, experts and 

institutions everywhere are continuously reassessing 

and redirecting their programs and technical capabilities. 

Institutions that have relevant research and monitoring 

programs for the assessment and sustainable management 

of ecosystem resources are at the forefront of implementing the necessary technological transformations.

Over the years, data and information for land management and environmental protection applications have 

been generated by a variety of means to meet institutional 

needs for planning and decision making processes. In 

forestry and natural resources, for example, institutions 

in most countries have a variety of research and monitoring programs, several with long operational histories. 

Different sampling strategies (Frayer and Furnival 1999) 

using various remote sensing technologies (Holgren and 

Thuresson 1998) and field measurement protocols are 

common among these institutional programs. Typical 

outputs include national and state tabular statistics for 

describing specific target populations and their related 

cartography. Now that geographical information systems 

are widely available, assessment results and a variety of 

information from these programs have the potential of 

being reported within a geospatial framework for largescale strategic applications.

While the intent of national inventory and monitoring programs is to generate statistical summaries and 

cartography for strategic purposes, it is clear that this 

information has limited value for tactical and operational 

applications. These programs, being content-biased due 

to the nature of their systematic sampling design, can not 

account for the variety of spatial pattern and ecological 

conditions that exist at small scales of spatial resolution. 

For local spatial contexts, where humans interact with 

ecosystem resources and make a variety of management 

decisions, it is critical to know where the resources are 

located, their extent and condition, and the intensity 

and direction of their ecological change. To effectively 

address these and other related questions, the data and 

information provided to local planners and decision 

makers must be available at multiple levels of spatial 

resolution (Aguirre 2001).

In light of the above, a spatially balanced estimation 

and modeling strategy is required to generate geospatial 

Spatial Statistical and Modeling Strategy for Inventorying 

and Monitoring Ecosystem Resources at Multiple Scales 

and Resolution Levels

Reich, Robin M, Professor of Forest Biometry and Spatial Statistics, College of Natural 

Resources, Colorado State University

Aguirre-Bravo, C., Research Coordinator for the Americas, Rocky Mountain Research 

Station, USDA Forest Service 

Williams, M.S., Mathematical Statistician, Rocky Mountain Research Station, USDA Forest 

Service

Abstract—A statistical strategy for spatial estimation and modeling of natural and environmental resource variables and indicators is presented. This strategy is part of an 

inventory and monitoring pilot study that is being carried out in the Mexican states of 

Jalisco and Colima. Fine spatial resolution estimates of key variables and indicators are 

outputs that will allow the modeling of complex ecological conditions relevant to resource 

planners and managers for supporting decision making processes at multiple scale levels. Several procedures for model evaluation and multiscale spatial estimation are also 

key components of this strategy. Point and spatial statistical estimates will be evaluated 

so that issues of accuracy and precision can be properly addressed. Products from the 

application of this strategy will be reported at multiple scales. Final recommendations 

for field implementation will be made in light of the evaluations of the study results.
840 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

data and information that meet local stakeholder expectations. Pixel-level statistical 

modeling opens new opportunities for describing the complexity of ecosystem resource 

attributes at multiple resolution levels and 

for advancing the designs of current inventory and monitoring programs. Outputs from 

spatial statistical models can also be used to 

develop estimates of population attributes and 

their measures of central tendency at multiple 

geographic scales. Due to these and other 

advantages, spatially explicit products have 

a very high potential utility for supporting 

planning, management and decision making 

processes. Generating these products and 

making them available may be one of the most 

defining technological innovations for land 

management and environmental protection 

of institutions in the 21st century.

The objective of this paper is to present a spatial statistical modeling approach for inventorying and monitoring 

ecosystem resources so that the resulting outputs can be 

used for a variety of multi-scale applications, particularly 

for local operational contexts. In addition, the paper 

documents the spatial statistical modeling approach recommended for the Mexican states of Jalisco and Colima’s 

pilot study project on monitoring and assessment for the 

sustainable management of ecosystem resources.

Integrated Monitoring 

Framework

In designing an integrated multi-resource inventory and 

monitoring system to evaluate the condition and change 

of variables and indicators for sustainable ecosystem 

resource management (for example, forest, rangeland, 

agriculture, wildlife, water, soils, biodiversity, etc.) one 

needs some baseline data for comparison. Given that we 

are dealing with complex systems, it is not wise to select 

one or two variables for ecological monitoring purposes. 

Also, analyzing variables independently of one another 

may lead to incorrect conclusions because of their spatial 

inter-dependencies. Statistical estimates and modeling 

processes are significantly influenced by the spatial patterns of relationships between and among variables. The 

spatial variability and arrangements of attributes to be 

measured are important factors to consider in choosing 

the proper sampling strategy. Techniques commonly used 

in describing spatial relationships between two or more 

variables include regression analysis and a variety of geostatistical procedures that take into consideration spatial 

and temporal dependencies (Cliff and Ord 1981).

The proposed framework for integrated ecosystem 

resource monitoring will rely on information collected 

at different spatial scales of resolution and sampling 

intensities and designs to provide detailed information 

for regional state and local levels for ecosystem resource 

planning and management purposes (fig. 1). At each 

monitoring level, particularly at the local levels (Level 

4-5), field measurement protocols and plot designs must 

be compatible with those used at state and regional 

geographic scales (Levels 2-3). Remote sensing data 

from high resolution sensors cuts across all possible 

monitoring scales (Level 1). National level monitoring 

assessments will be generated using statistical procedures 

that are compatible with spatial modeling at smaller 

scales. Central to this integrated approach is its advantage for optimizing the use of field data from multiple 

sources when meeting interoperability criteria, thereby 

minimizing cost and maximizing utility of products from 

inventory and monitoring programs.

An important feature of this integrated framework is 

the products and outputs that will be developed at each 

level and their uses at higher levels of the inventory. At 

the lowest level, a land cover map will be generated for 

the entire study area. This map will be constructed from 

the combination satellite imagery, digital elevation models and a large data set of inexpensive ground information 

(Level 1). This map will provide general information on 

the extent and spatial location of the major and minor 

cover types found in the study area. This map will also 

be used in Level 2 for area frame construction and as 

a tool to post-stratify data derived from a systematic 

sample of permanent ground plots that are collected 

Figure 1. Conceptual model for integration of monitoring design 

and institutional processes.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 841

for the purpose of long-term monitoring and estimating 

forest resources at the National and State level (Level 

2). While the estimates derived from Level 2 will be 

design-unbiased and efficient, the small sample size and 

systematic spacing of ground plots is generally poor for 

spatial modeling purposes. To address these deficiencies, 

Level 3 of the inventory will use a stratified sampling 

scheme to ensure that ground data will be collected in 

all of the land categories of interest. The Level 2 and 3 

ground data will be used, in conjunction with the Level 

1 map to develop spatial models that describe the land 

resources structure of the study area. The goal of Level 

4 is to identify areas where the spatial models are not 

performing well and to collect additional data for the 

purpose of refining the models in these locations. Thus, 

the Level 4 data will be a purposive sample of ground 

plots for the purpose model refinement. Level 5 is reserved for special studies. This may include intensively 

sampled monitoring locations, but little can be said about 

the types of analyses performed at this level due to the 

unknown nature of the issues.

Pilot Study Area

The Pilot Study Area consists of the Mexican southwestern states of Jalisco and Colima with a continental 

area of approximately nine million hectares (twenty 

million acres). Though Jalisco is larger in area (90 

percent), the state of Colima (10 percent) plays a very 

distinctive role in the economy of the whole region and 

diversifies the Pilot Study Area considerably. Four major 

ecological regions provide the natural resources and environmental conditions that make this region one of the 

most prosperous in Mexico (fig. 2). The eco-regions are 

the transversal neo-volcanic system, the southern Sierra 

Madre, the Southern and Western Pacific Coastal Plain 

and Hills and Canyons, and the Mexican High Plateau. 

Linked to these ecological regions, there are several 

important Hydrological Regions (HR) that drain to the 

Pacific Ocean (HR12 Lerma-Santiago, HR13 Huicicila, 

HR14 Ameca, HR15 Costa de Jalisco, HR16 ArmeriaCoahuayana;, HR18 Balsas, and HR37 El Salado). One of 

the watersheds, the Lerma-Santiago Hydrological Region 

is connected to Chapala Lake, the most important source 

of water for the City of Guadalajara.

Precipitation ranges from roughly 300 mm/year in 

some locations to more than 1200 mm/year in the higher 

elevations, with the principal precipitation coming in 

summer monsoons. The ecological systems of this region 

cut across the boundaries of other Mexican states. For 

example, several major watersheds drain through the 

tropical and subtropical forests of the state of Colima. 

Mostly in the state of Jalisco, water from surface and 

underground sources is heavily used for agriculture and 

industrial activities, though a significant portion goes to 

meet the domestic needs of approximately ten million 

people. While on average Colima is humid, water in 

the state of Jalisco is a critically limiting resource that 

threatens the sustainability of urban and rural ecological 

and economic systems. Most of the land (85 percent) 

in the state of Jalisco is privately owned. Small private 

landowners are the main driving force of economic development in agriculture, forestry, and rangeland economic 

activities. In contrast to Colima, for example, a small 

portion of Jalisco’s land is owned by ejidos (10 percent), 

communities (3 percent), and the government (2 percent). 

Recently, as a result of trade liberalization brought about 

by NAFTA policies, new industries have been established 

in these two states and natural resource utilization has 

increased due to higher population growth rates.

The region’s biophysical heterogeneity blends itself to 

bring about unique habitat conditions for a large diversity of plant and animal species. Within its boundaries, 

there are a significant number of species of mammals 

and birds, many of which are severely threatened by 

human activities. Some of the plant and animal species 

are endemic to specific locations within the ecological 

regions that comprise the Pilot Study Area. Extensive areas of pine-oak forest are home to “specialty” birds such 

as the thick-billed parrot, the Mexican-spotted owl, and 

woodpeckers. It is thought that habitat loss is the single 

most important element affecting bird populations in this 

ecosystem complex. Not much is known about how (in 

other words, what, when, where, why) plant and animal 

species are being impacted by human activities. Water 

and other biological resources are an integral part of these 

Figure 2. Location of the states of Jalisco and Colima, 

Mexico.
842 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

ecological regions whose services transcend geopolitical 

domains and jurisdictions.

Data Sources and Description

Data are derived from various sources and using a 

number of different sampling protocols. One common 

feature is that data collection and analysis will be designed for a 10 m spatial resolution, meaning that all 

data will be scaled and stored on a 10 m grid system 

covering the study area.

GIS Data

GIS grids of elevation, slope, and aspect will be developed from digital elevation models. Grid coverages for 

each topographic variable will be resampled (Resample 

function, nearest neighbor, Grid Module (ARC/INFO, 

ESRI 1995) to provide a 10 m spatial resolution.

Landsat TM Data

Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data contains 8 

spectral bands. The data comprise 11 Landsat scenes 

that are radiometrically and geometrically corrected. 

Grids of spectral bands 1-8 of a cloud-free, 2002 and 

2003 Landsat TM image will be resampled to a 10-m 

spatial resolution as above and averaged by moving 

a 3 x 3 pixel window (FOCALMEAN, Grid Module; 

ARC/INFO, ESRI 1995) over the resampled grids. 

Each 10 m x 10 m pixel of resampled Landsat data 

will therefore represent an average of the surrounding 

30 m x 30 m pixels, except for the central 10-m pixel 

of the original 30 m Landsat pixel, whose value will 

not change. Resampling is important because not all 

of the sampling units will fall within spectrally distinct 

areas; some plots may land in transition zones between 

spectral classes. Averaging of the Landsat information 

reduces potential registration errors and better reflects 

changes in forest structure and vegetative types measured on the ground. Use of other remote sensors (for 

example, SPOT, MODIS, IKONOS, etc.) will also be 

investigated as part of this study.

Landcover Point Data

To develop a detailed vegetation map of the pilot 

study area, point data will be collected throughout the 

two states to identify major vegetation types. To date, 

approximately 750 points have been visited. Field crews 

will identify land areas that clearly meet the definition 

of each cover type. At the location of each sample point, 

a Global Positioning System (GPS) is used to obtain 

the UTM coordinates of the sample points as well as 

information on the dominant vegetation type. The accuracy of the GPS coordinates is approximately 3 m.

Ground Plot Data

The primary sampling unit (PSU) is 30 m x 30 m (fig. 

3) square plot corresponding to the size of an individual 

pixel on a Landsat TM image and consists of nine 10 m 

x 10 m secondary sampling units (SSUs). Each primary 

sampling unit will be centered on the coordinates assigned to it and will be laid out in a north-south, east-west 

manner. The location of each PSU will be verified using 

a GPS with an estimated accuracy of within 3m.

Because these will be permanent plots, the PSU center will be monumented on the ground. Five of the nine 

SSU’s will be selected for detailed measurement, using 

a circular plot of 5 meters radius. SSU-1 will be located 

at the PSU center. The other four SSUs will be located 

in the four corners of the PSU (fig. 3).

The decision to use a 100 m2 SSU is based on study 

by Reich and others (1992) to determine the optimal plot 

size for measuring coniferous forests (in other words, 

tree diameters and tree heights) in El Salto, Durango, 

Mexico. Results suggest that in highly aggregated stands 

(c = 0.052, table 1) in which individual trees occur in 

clumps, it is better to sample a small number of trees 

on each plot by using a small plot size and spreading 

the plots over a large proportion of the forest, rather 

than sampling fewer number of plots using a larger 

plot size (table 1). As the spatial distribution of trees 

approaches that of a random spatial pattern (c = 0.5) 

the optimal plot size increases. Similar results were 

observed by Reich and Arvanitis (1992). Both of these 

studies suggest that the spatial distribution of trees is 

the most important factor influencing the selection of an 

optimal plot size. Because of the difficulty in determining the spatial distribution of individual trees, Reich and 

Arvanitis (1992) developed a technique for estimating 

the spatial distribution of various stand characteristics 

Figure 3. Plot Layout for Primary and Secondary Sampling 

Units.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 843

using simple counts of “in” trees on either variable or 

fixed area plots.

Several kinds of subplots will be located within each of 

the 5 m radius plots (fig. 4) and different measurements 

will be made on each plot type. All large trees (>12.5 

cm DBH) will be measured on each of the 5 m plots. 

Observed attributes will be specified in the field sampling 

and indicators measurement manuals. Saplings (2.5 cm 

< DBH < 12.5 cm) will be measured on a circular plot 

(3m radius) co-located at the center of each tree subplot. 

Within each of the 5 m radius plots will be 3 square 

plots, each measuring 1 m x 1m. The first 1 m2 quadrat 

will be located at the center of the 5 m radius plot. The 

remaining two 1 m2 are located 6 m from the center plot, 

on a diagonal of the 5 m radius plot (fig. 4). Seedlings 

(height > 30 cm and DBH < 2.5 cm) will be sampled on 

the three 1 m2 quadrats. In addition to counting seedlings, 

the percent cover of herbaceous plants, shrubs, and tree 

species < 30 cm tall will be recorded.

On all nine of the SSUs, a spherical densiometer 

will be used to estimate canopy closure while an angle 

gauge will be used to estimate basal area by species. This 

information will be used to correlate the detailed vegetation and soils data collected on the five SSUs.

To estimate fuel loadings, a 14.14 m transect will be 

established diagonally across each of the 5 m radius plots, 

proceeding at 45 degrees (fig. 4). This will be referred 

to as the 14 m transect. Line intersect techniques will be 

used to estimate fuel loadings of large woody material 

(sound and rotten) > 7.5 cm in diameter. All large woody 

material intersecting the 14 m transect will be counted 

and their cross-sectional areas measured by genus. Small 

woody material (0-0.6 cm, 0.6-2.4 cm, 2.4-7.5 cm) will 

be counted on a diagonal transect on the three 1 m2 plots. 

In each case, the mean height of fuels in each sampled 

diameter class, as well as the slope of the diagonal transect will be measured, and reported, respectively. Soils 

attributes will be observed on each 5 m radius plot. Any 

destructive soil samples will be collected outside the west 

side (270 degree Azimuth) of the primary sampling unit 

and at a distance of 5 meters of the plot boundary line.

Most of the indicator variables are compatible with 

those used by the USDA Forest Service and Canadian 

ecosystem resource monitoring programs. Other indicator variables can be integrated into this pilot study 

as resources become available and the need dictates to 

ensure comparability and interoperability of indicators 

with participating government agencies from the USA 

and Canada.

Sampling Design

The development of the sampling and plot designs is 

complicated by the diversity of variables and indicators 

to be assessed, and the need to assess the ecosystem 

resources at a range of scales, the need to monitor the 

indicators over time, and the need to do so efficiently. 

To meet national and state level objectives for ecosystem resource assessments while providing information 

needed to develop geostatistical models to estimate key 

attributes at local scales, a stratified random sampling 

design will be employed. Stratification generally provide 

Table 1. Optimal plot size that minimizes total survey time with an allowable error of 10 percent at the 95 

percent confidence level, by stand type near El Salto, Durango, Mexico (Reich and others 1992).

Spatial Degree of Stocking Number Optimal Plot

Distribution Aggregation (c) Level of Stands Trees/ha Size (m2

)

Single Storied Stands

Aggregated 0.292 Low 1 65.1 115

Aggregated 0.054 Medium 8 762.6 15

Aggregated 0.292 Low 3 268.6 250

Two Storied Stands

Aggregated 0.054 Low 12 327.2 10

Aggregated 0.054 Medium 23 1085.2 10

Aggregated 0.292 High 11 2478.2 205

Aggregated 0.054 Low 1 647.7 25

Aggregated 0.292 Medium 4 1244.1 31

Figure 4. Layout of Tree and Cover Subplots of SSUs.
844 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

more precise estimates compared to a simple random 

or systematic sample of the same size, while providing 

estimates of population parameters for individual strata 

(Schreuder and others 1993).

In the first phase, the pilot study area will be stratified by vegetation type (for example, temperate forest, 

tropical forests, grasslands, mesquite forests, agricultural lands, etc.). Strata will be defined using a detailed 

vegetation map of the pilot study area developed using 

the independent set of point data. Each stratum will 

have a known size and will be used as weights to obtain area-wide estimates. The number of sample plots 

within stratum will be allocated proportional to the size 

of the stratum and the variability within stratum. In the 

second phase, Landsat TM data will be used to obtain 

an unsupervised classification of the spectral variability 

associated with each of the dominant vegetation types, or 

stratum identified in phase one. The number of spectral 

classes, or strata in the second stage, will vary, depending 

on the spectral variability observed within each stratum. 

An equal number of sample plots will be randomly located within each spectral class. This will ensure that the 

sample plots will cover the spectral variability associated with the Landsat TM image which is essential for 

spatially interpolating the sample data. The field crews 

will locate the plots at the UTM coordinates given to 

them – accurate location of the points is important both 

for spatial modeling as well as to future relocation of 

these permanent plots. Plot locations will be kept secret. 

The opportunity also exists to intensify for local areas 

within land tenure units, MAUs, or administrative units, 

as budgeting allows.

Modeling Methods

Vegetation Map

The vegetation map of the pilot study area will be 

constructed using the Landsat TM, climatic data, vegetation point data, and field sample data. A stepwise decision 

tree (Breiman and others 1984, Friedl and Brodley 1997, 

De’Ath and Fabricus 2000) will be used to identify 

independent variables (Landsat TM bands, elevation, 

slope, or aspect) that are important in discriminating 

among vegetation types. The decision tree uses a binary 

partitioning algorithm that maximizes the dissimilarities 

among groups to compare all possible splits among the 

independent variables and splits within each independent 

variable to partition the data into new subsets. Once 

the algorithm partitions the data into new subsets, new 

relationships are developed to split the new subsets. The 

algorithm recursively splits the data in each subset until 

either the subset is homogeneous or the subset contains 

too few observations (< 5) to be split further. To prevent 

over fitting the data, a pruning algorithm (Friedl and 

Brodley 1997) will be used to eliminate subsets that were 

fit to noise in the data. Decision tree criteria will then be 

used as ‘training’ statistics to classifying the 2002 and 

2003 Landsat image (fig. 5).

Spatial Modeling

Ecosystem resource attributes and indicators measured 

on the sample plots (in other words, canopy closure, basal 

area, fuel loadings, soil texture, understory vegetation, 

density of seedling/saplings, etc.) will be modeled to a 10 

m spatial resolution using procedures developed by Joy 

and Reich (2002). Multiple regression analysis will be 

used to develop a trend surface (TS) model to explore the 

coarse-scale variability (in other words, non-stochastic 

mean structure) in continuous measures of forest structure 

as a function of elevation, slope, aspect, landform, and 

Landsat TM bands. To account for interactions between 

vegetation types and other independent variables, dummy 

variables will be introduced in the models as interactions 

with elevation, slope, aspect, landform, and data from 

the eight Landsat bands. For each component of forest 

structure modeled, a stepwise procedure will be used to 

identify the best subset of independent variables (main 

effects and interactions) to include in the TS models.

To describe the fine-scale spatial variability (in other 

words, residuals associated with the TS models) in ecosystem resource attributes and indicators will be modeled 

using binary regression trees (RT). The RT is a non-parametric approach to regression that compares all possible 

splits among the independent (continuous) variables 

using a binary partitioning algorithm that maximizes 

the dissimilarities among groups. Once the algorithm 

partitions the data into new subsets, new relationships 

are developed, assessed, and split into new subsets. The 

algorithm recursively splits the data in each subset until 

either the subset is homogeneous or the subset contains 

too few observations (for example, < 5) to be split further. Interpolation using RTs is relatively insensitive to 

sparse data (Joy and Reich 2002). Independent variables 

considered in the RT will include elevation, slope, aspect, 

landform, Landsat TM band readings, and vegetation 

type, the latter being treated as a categorical variable. 

To avoid over-fitting the RTs, a 10-fold cross-validation 

procedure (Efron and Tibshirani 1993) will be used to 

identify the tree size (in other words, number of terminal 

nodes) that minimizes the total deviance (in other words, 

error) associated with the trees.

Semi-variograms which describe how the sample 

variance changes as a function of distance will be used 

to evaluate spatial dependencies among the residuals 

from the various models. If the residuals exhibited 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 845

spatial dependencies, a spatial autoregressive (SAR) 

model will be used to obtain generalized least squares 

(GLS) estimates of the regression coefficients associated with the TS model (Upton and Fingleton 1985). 

The model residuals will be reevaluated to ensure the 

removal of the spatial dependencies. In fitting the SAR 

models, a spatial weight matrix (in other words, a block 

diagonal matrix) based on inverse distance weighting 

will be used to represent the spatial dependencies among 

the PSUs and SSUs.

Grids representing the various components of forest 

structure will be generated for the best fitting TS model 

using the model’s parameter estimates. Similarly, grids 

representing the error in each TS model will be generated by passing each grid for the appropriate independent 

variable through the RTs. The final predicted surfaces for 

each component of forest structure will be obtained from 

the sum of the TS and RT grids. 

Model Evaluation

The effectiveness of the final models will be evaluated 

using a goodness-of-prediction statistic (G) (Agterburg 

1984, Guisan and Zimmermann 2000, Kravchenko and 

Bullock 1999, Schloeder and others 2001). The G-value, 

measures how effective a prediction might be relative to 

that which could have been derived by using the sample 

mean (Agterburg 1984):

G = 1− zi − z

∧

i





 





2

i=1

n

∑







 z[ ] i − z 2

i=1

n

∑ 





















, [1]

where Z

∧

i is the observed value of the ith observation, 

Z

∧

i is the predicted value of the ith observation, and Z

is the sample mean. A G-value equal to 1 indicates perfect prediction, a positive value indicates a more reliable 

model than if one had used the sample mean. A negative 

value indicates a less reliable model than if one had used 

the sample mean, and a value of zero indicates that the 

sample mean should be used to estimate Z.

A 10-fold cross-validation (Efron and Tibshirani 

1993) will be used to estimate the prediction error for 

each variable modeled. The data will be split into K=10 

parts consisting of approximately 15 sample plots. For 

each kth part, the TS and RT models are fitted to the 

remaining K-1=9 parts of the data. The fitted model is 

used to predict the kth (in other words, removed) part of 

Figure 5. Preliminary vegetation map of the states of Jalisco and Colima, Mexico. The vegetation map is based 

on point data collected at 2000 locations and a 2002 Landsat TM imagery. The missing Landsat TM images for 

2002 will be acquired and used in developing the final vegetation map of the study area.
846 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

the data. This process is repeated 10 times so that each 

observation is excluded from the model construction step 

and its response predicted.

To evaluate the effectiveness of the models, we 

will compute various measures of the prediction error. Prediction bias (Williams 1997) will be calculated 

for each validation data set as a percentage of the true 

value. Accuracy (Kravchenko and Bullock 1999) will 

be measured by the mean absolute error (MAE), which 

is a measure of the sum of residuals (in other words, 

actual minus predicted) and the root mean squared error 

(RMSE), which is a measure of the square root of the 

sum of squared residuals. Small MAE values indicate 

models with few errors, while small values of RMSE 

indicate more accurate predictions on a point-by-point 

basis. To assess the estimation uncertainty in the models 

(Isaaks and Srivastava 1989) the estimation error variance (EEV), σi

2 (−k (i))

∧

 for each observation in the kth part 

of the data will be calculated:

σˆi

2 (−k (i)) = MSE* Xi−k (i)

( )'

X* ' X*

( ) Xi

−k (i)

( ) +1 

 +

2MSE(RT )+ 2COV(Y

∧

,η

∧

)

[2]

where MSE* is the regression mean squared error for the 

TS model fitted using K-1 parts of the data, X* is a matrix 

of independent variables associated with the K-1 parts 

of the data, Xi

−k (i) is a vector of independent variables 

associated with the ith observation in the kth part of the 

data, 

∧

Var(RT ) is the mean squared error of the RT used 

to describe the error in the TS model, and Cov(Y

∧

,η

∧

) is 

the covariance between the estimated values, (Y

∧

), from 

the TS model and the predicted residuals, (η

∧

), from 

the RT for the K-1 parts of the data. The consistency 

between the EEV, σi

2 (−k (i))

∧

, and the observed estimation 

errors (in other words, true errors), i

−k (i)

e = (Zi − Zi

−k (i)

), 

will be calculated using the standard mean squared error 

(SMSE) (Havesi and others 1992):

SMSE = 1

n

ei

−k (i)

( )2

σ

∧

i

2 (−k (i))

i=1

n

∑ . [3]

EEVs are aSSUmed consistent with true errors if the 

SMSE falls within the interval 1± 2(2 / n)

−1/2 

  (Havesi 

and others 1992). Paired t-tests (α = 0.05) will be used 

to test for differences between the mean estimation errors and zero.

Data Collection and Model Building 

Phases

Data collection and model building will be carried out 

simultaneously to ensure the development of the most 

reliable models.

Phase I. In this phase, point data will be collected 

throughout the pilot study area to identify both the major 

and minor vegetation types. This information will be used 

to develop a preliminary vegetation map of the pilot study 

area (see section on Vegetation Map). The preliminary 

vegetation map will be used to identify strata for the 

purpose of locating sample plots in the field (fig. 5).

Phase II: In this phase, one-third of the sample plots 

will be located in the field and measured. In addition, 

point data will also be collected. The point data along 

with the classification of the field plots will be used 

to update the vegetation map of the pilot study area. 

Preliminary models will be developed for key indicator 

variables such as canopy closure to identify geographical 

regions or vegetation types within the pilot study area 

that have large errors associated with their estimation. 

This information will be used to allocate the next group 

of sample plots to various strata.

Phases III and IV: The steps outlined in Phase II will 

be repeated until all of the sample plots have been located 

in the field and measured.

Phase V: The point data collected in Phases I-IV along 

with the classification of the sample plots measured in 

Phases II-IV will be used to develop the final vegetation map of the pilot study area. Also during this phase, 

spatial models will be developed for all of the ecosystem 

resource attributes and indicators variables measured on 

the sample plots (see section on Spatial Modeling).

Multi-Scale Estimation (Model-Based)

In addition to being able to assess the level of uncertainty associated with the spatial models, it is also 

important that the models are capable of providing estimates at any spatial scale or level of support. It is also 

important that we are able to place bounds on the error 

of estimation. To accomplish this it is important that the 

PSU remain intact as much as possible by not splitting 

them in half. This may not be possible near boundaries, 

and in such cases, the formula presented below will 

have to be modified to take into consideration PSU of 

unequal sizes. To demonstrate this concept, assume one 

is interested in estimating the mean (for example, canopy 

closure, basal area, height understory vegetation etc.) 

per SSU within a specified geographical unit and place 

a bound on the error of estimation. Assume the area of 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 847

interest contains n PSUs consisting of m = 9 SSU’s. The 

modeled surfaces are used to provide an estimate ( Z

∧

) on 

each of the nm SSU’s, along with the model prediction 

variance (σ

∧ 2

) using Eq. 2. An estimate of the mean value 

per SSU ( Z

∧

sp ) is given by:

Z

∧

sp = 1

nm

Zij = 1

n

∧

j=1

m

∑i=1

n

∑ Zi

∧

i=1

n

∑ , [4]

where Z

∧

ij is the estimated value on the jth SSU from 

PSU i, and Z

∧

i

 is the average for the ith PSU. If PSUs of 

the same size are sampled, the total sum of squares associated with estimating the mean can be partitioned into 

the within-PSU sum of squares (SSW) and the betweenPSU sum of squares (SSB) (Scheaffer and others 1996). 

With appropriate divisors, these sum of squares become 

the usual mean squares of an analysis of variance. The 

within-PSU mean square (MSW) is given by

MSW = SSW

n (m −1) = 1n (m −1) ( ) Zij − Zi

2

≈ 1

nm2

j=1

m

∑i=1

n

∑ σij

2

∧

j=1

m

∑i=1

n

∑ , [5]

where 

1

n(m −1) ( ) Zij − Zi

2

j=1

m

∑i=1

n

∑ is the MSW one would 

typically use in cluster sampling and 

1

nm2 σij

2

∧

j=1

m

∑i=1

n

∑ is its 

equivalent using the EEV formula (Joy and Reich 2002). 

The between-PSU mean square (MSB) is given by:

MSB = SSB

n −1

= m

n −1

zi − z ( ) sp

2

≈ 1

n i=1

n

∑ σˆij

2

j=1

m

∑i=1

n

∑ , [6]

where 

m

n =1

zi − z ( ) sp

2

i=1

n

∑ is the general formula for calculating the MSB and 

1

n

σˆij

2

j=1

m

∑i=1

n

∑ is its equivalent using 

the EEV formula (Joy and Reich 2002). The MSB can be 

used to calculate the variance of ˆ

zsp as follows:

Vˆ ˆz( ) sp = MSB

nm . [7]

Using these relationships it is possible to obtain local 

estimates of any of the modeled variables to any spatial 

scale along with their corresponding estimates of the 

variance.

Global Estimation (Sampling DesignBased)

The field data may also be used to obtain global estimates of the mean and variance for the states of Jalisco 

and Colima for individual vegetation types. Within a 

given vegetation type, i (i=1,2,...,L) an estimate of the 

mean and variance of some attribute, z, can be obtained 

using the formula for a stratified random sample (Cochran 

1977, Schreuder and others 1993):

zi

1

Ni

Nijzij

j=1

C

∑ [8]

Vˆ z( )i = 1

Ni

2 Nij

2

j=1

C

∑ Nij − nij

Nij

















sij

2

nij

[9]

where Nij is the number of PSUs in the jth spectral class 

(j = 1, 2, ..., C), Ni = Nij j

C

∑ is the number of PSUs in 

the ith vegetation type, nij is the sample size in the jth 

spectral class in the ith vegetation type, sij

2 is the sample 

variance of the jth spectral class in the ith vegetation type, 

and zij is the sample mean for the jth spectral class in 

the ith vegetation class.

The state-wide estimates of the mean and variance 

of the variable of interest are again obtained using the 

formula for a stratified random sample (Cochran 1977, 

Schreuder and others 1993):

z = 1

N

Nizi = 1

N

Nij

j=1

C

∑i=1

L

∑ i=1

L

∑ zij [10]

Vˆ ( ) z = 1

N2 Ni

2

i=1

L

∑ Ni − ni

Ni





 



V z ˆ ( )i = 1

N2

Ni − ni

Ni





 



 i=1

L

∑

Nij

2

j=1

C

∑ Nii − nij

Nij

















sij

2

nij

[11]

where N is the total number of PSUs in the states of 

Jalisco and Colima and ni nij j=1

C

∑ is the sample size in 

the ith vegetation class.

These formula can be modified to provide estimates 

of the mean and variance for the SSUs.

Plot Remeasurement

Sample plots will be remeasured on a cycle of a one-tofive years with an average of 25 percent of the plots being 

remeasured in a given year. The rate of remeasurement 
848 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

will be based on the temporal variability associated with 

the various vegetation types. For example, agricultural 

areas would be expected to change very rapidly from 

one year to the next, as compared to the mesquite forests 

which are very stable over time.

In the second year, a new cloud free, Landsat TM imagery will be acquired of the pilot study area. The Landsat 

imagery will be normalized with respect to the Landsat 

imagery used in the initial survey. The two Landsat images will be differenced to identify areas in which the 

spectral characteristics have changed. Cluster analysis 

will be used to stratify the pilot study area into five to 

ten strata with similar changes in the spectral variability. 

Based on their spectral properties, the sample plots will 

be assigned to one of the five to ten strata representing 

changes in the landscape. Within each stratum, sample 

plots will be randomly selected, without replacement, 

for remeasurement. The proportion of sample plots selected from each stratum will depend on the number of 

sample plots assigned to a given stratum. If there are no 

sample plots assigned to a particular stratum, there is an 

opportunity to establish new sample plots to expand the 

database used to make inferences about the resources 

within the pilot study area.

Spatial-Temporal Modeling

To model the changes in ecosystem resource attributes 

and indicators over time, first order differencing will be 

used (Brockwell and Davis 1991). This first order difference is defined as

∆zt = zt − zt−1 [12]

where zt describes the process at time t. The changes observed on the remeasured sample plots will be modeled 

as a function of changes in the spectral bands associated 

with the sample plots, elevation, slope, aspect, and vegetation type. The approach used in the modeling will be 

similar to the one used in developing the original models. 

An estimate of the process at time t will be obtained by 

adding the predicted surface of change to the predicted 

surface of the process at time t-1:

zˆ

t = zˆt−1 + ∆zˆt . [13]

In subsequent years, it may be necessary to use higher 

order differences to eliminate quadratic or higher order 

trends.

Identifying Micro-Ecological 

Management Units

Resource managers are constantly trying to improve 

the way they manage the natural resources under their 

care. Typically, the area of interest is sub-divided into 

management units, or stands, based on certain characteristics, such as canopy closure and/or species composition, 

and then each area is managed on an individual basis. 

Unfortunately, the definitions used in the creation of these 

management units, or stands, may not be compatible with 

different management objectives.

Using the techniques discussed earlier, resource 

managers can generate response surfaces representing 

important resource attributes (in other words, canopy 

closure, basal area, volume growth, fuel loadings, 

biomass, understory vegetation, etc.) under their management. Using a collection of these surfaces to represent 

certain ecological or management conditions (in other 

words, diversity of resident and migratory birds, species 

richness, wildlife habitat suitability, volume production, 

fire hazard, etc.) one can apply a multivariate spatial 

clustering algorithm to identify “micro-ecological” units 

that have similar spatial characteristics. Thus, the management units identified for the production of volume 

may be different from those identified to maximize the 

diversity of resident and migratory birds, and so on. The 

algorithm applies a k-means clustering algorithm to the 

selected response surfaces, and clusters the individual 

pixels of the response surfaces into k clusters. K-means 

is a nonhierarchical clustering method that uses nearest 

centroid sorting to iteratively minimize the Euclidian 

distance between cluster means (Hartigan 1975).

Conclusions

The science and art of spatial statistics and modeling 

open new opportunities to advance the systems for inventorying and monitoring ecosystem resources and the 

environment. In research and other applications, these 

technologies provide a flexible framework for integrating multiple sources of data and information for spatial 

modeling at multiple scales and resolution. Integrating 

field data and remote sensed data through a geostatistical-based approach brings about significant gains in 

statistical and economic efficiency. However, for the 

achievement of successful results, it is essential to take 

into account a variety of technical considerations when 

using these technologies for practical applications.

Statistical estimates and modeling processes are 

significantly influenced by the spatial patterns that exist 

between and among variables of interest. The spatial variability and arrangements of these attributes are important 

factors to consider in choosing the proper sampling strategy. If the sampling design does not capture the spatial 

variability in the data it may not be possible to spatially 

interpolate the field data. It is also important that the 

field data be collected at the desired spatial resolution. 

For example, if the field data is collected on a systematic 

grid, it may not be possible to spatially interpolate the 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 849

data to a finer spatial resolution, especially, if the scales 

of pattern are smaller than the grid spacing used to collect 

the data. If Landsat imagery is being used in the interpolation process, it is also important that the sample plot 

corresponds as closely as possible to the size and shape 

of the pixels in the imagery. This tends to minimize the 

errors associated with what is being measured on the 

ground and what the satellite senses.

In addition to be able to spatially interpolate the field 

data, it is important to evaluate the individual models 

as to their predictive performance. This provides useful 

information to the users in terms of the accuracy and 

precision of estimates in areas not sampled.

The Jalisco-Colima Pilot Study constitutes a test-bed 

for using and learning about the application of these new 

technologies. While these techniques have been applied 

to smaller areas (< 370,000 ha) their performance when 

applied to more diverse and larger geographical areas is 

generally unknown.

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York, John Wiley and Sons.

Williams, M. S. 1997. A regression technique accounting for 

heteroscedastic and asymmetric error. Journal of Agriculture, 

Biology and Environmental Statistics 2:108-129.
850 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

In Mexico, individual agencies address the extent, status, and trends of selected natural resources in response to 

their specific missions. No agency, or group of agencies, 

examines the interactions and interdependence among 

multiple natural resource components from an integrated 

ecosystem perspective. Available information often is 

at scales that have limited value for state planning and 

policy-making. While useful for strategic national level 

planning, this information has limited use for supporting 

regional and local decision-making resource applications. 

Similarly, there is no integrated program to periodically 

assess multiple natural resources at regional and local 

scales, and at multiple resolution levels. Accordingly, the 

ecosystem resource monitoring initiative, of which this 

document is a part, will enable comprehensive assessments of Jalisco’s natural resources for the management 

of their sustainability.

This ecosystem resource monitoring initiative addresses a number of critical issues that stakeholders in 

the states of Jalisco and elsewhere in Mexico are facing 

to insure the environmental sustainability for present and 

future generations. Land management agencies charged 

with this responsibility have come to the realization that 

current data and information available are insufficient 

to confront successfully the ecological and economic 

challenges of ecosystem resource sustainability. In light 

of the above, the purpose of this technical document is 

to describe the statistical approach for inventorying and 

monitoring the ecosystem resources of the Mexican 

state of Jalisco at multiple scales and resolution levels. 

Design-based inference is used to ensure a minimum 

number of assumptions.

Overview of the Sampling 

Designs

Unlike many National level inventories, such as the 

US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service Forest 

Inventory and Analysis program (FIA), the goal of the 

Jalisco pilot project (JCPP) is to design an integrated 

inventory system that provides both traditional assessments of population totals and means as well as spatially 

realistic maps that describe the location and distribution 

of various attributes of the population. In other words, an 

inventory is designed that meets strategic, management, 

and local needs. The products produced by the inventory 

include reliable estimates of means and totals for important ecosystem characteristics and maps describing the 

spatial and temporal properties of the ecosystem.

In designing an integrated multi-resource inventory 

and monitoring system to evaluate the condition and 

change of variables and indicators for sustainable ecosystem resource management (forest, rangeland, agriculture, 

wildlife, water, soils, biodiversity, etc.) one needs some 

baseline data for comparison. Because one is generally 

dealing with complex systems, it is not wise to focus 

on only one or two variables for ecological monitoring 

purposes. Also, analyzing these variables independently 

of one another may lead to incorrect conclusions because 

Statistical Strategy for Inventorying and Monitoring the 

Ecosystem Resources of the State of Jalisco at Multiple 

Scales and Resolution Levels

Robin M. Reich, Professor, Forest Biometry, Colorado State University, Ft Collins, CO

Hans T. Schreuder, retired Mathematical Statistician Rocky Mountain Research Station, 

USDA Forest Service, USA

Abstract—The sampling strategy involving both statistical and in-place inventory information is presented for the natural resources project of the Green Belt area (Centuron 

Verde) in the Mexican state of Jalisco. The sampling designs used were a grid based 

ground sample of a 90x90 m plot and a two-stage stratified sample of 30 x 30 m plots. 

The data collected were used to present strategic information for the green belt area as 

well as mapped information on crops and forest conditions. The experience gained in 

this study will be used to plan a statewide inventory for the states of Jalisco and Colima, 

Mexico and ultimately for the entire country of Mexico.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 851

of their inter-dependencies. One approach is to model 

the spatial relationship between key indicator variables. 

In ecosystem resource management, for example, this 

information can then be used to identify forest habitats 

that are either conducive or a deterrent to the presence 

of ecologically important plant and/or animal species. 

Techniques commonly used in describing spatial relationships between two or more variables include regression 

analysis and a variety of geo-statistical procedures that 

take into consideration the spatial dependency (Cliff and 

Ord 1981). The proposed ecosystem resource monitoring 

system will rely on information collected at different spatial scales of resolution and sampling intensities (fig. 1) 

to provide detailed information at the local level for ecosystem resource planning and management purposes.

The JCPP is an integrated inventory and monitoring 

program that is designed to address numerous objectives at different spatial scales. The components of the 

inventory are broken down in 5 components, which are 

referred to as ‘levels’, each addressing different spatial 

scale and information needs. This document provides a 

brief overview of all five levels of the inventory and a 

detailed description of Levels 1 and 2. Other documents 

will address Levels 3, 4 and 5 in more detail.

Spatially Continuous Monitoring 

(Level 1)

Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data will be 

used to provide a complete and uniform census of 

individual Environmental Accounting 

Units (EAU) across jurisdictional domains (i.e., private lands, federal and 

state lands, ejidos, communities, municipalities, regions, etc.). An EAU is a 

watershed used to assess ecological and 

human activity assessment as well as for 

resource decision making and planning 

applications This approach will provide 

data, or measurements collected as a 

series of contiguous and simultaneous 

measures across land tenure units. It 

will also provide the capability of monitoring EAU’s for changes in spectral 

and spatial characteristics that can be 

applied over a range of spatial and temporal scales appropriate for addressing 

specific ecosystem resource issues.

Remote sensing data have been 

used primarily to develop static maps 

of vegetation cover or land use to guide management 

decisions in planning applications. However, a current 

component missing in ecosystem resource monitoring 

is its use for change detection and spatial modeling of 

ecosystem properties. When compared to traditional plot 

data, remotely sensed data can be quite helpful in detecting changes in the land base. Many critical indicator 

variables such as site productivity, presence or absence 

of threatened or endangered species, and biological 

diversity are simply not being measured with sufficient 

spatial coverage and frequency to allow evaluation of 

current and future trends. Unlike previous applications 

of remote sensing in monitoring ecosystem resources in 

which remote sensing imagery is treated as the primary 

variable of interest, we propose a slightly different approach. In our approach, Landsat TM data is treated as 

an auxiliary variable while the field data is treated as 

the primary variable of interest in describing specific 

properties of the region at any desired spatial scale (i.e., 

1 to 30 m). Appropriate use of the approach can greatly 

increase the value of outputs from monitoring programs 

(Metzger 1997).

The decision to use Landsat TM data over other 

remote sensors (e.g., SPOT (10 m resolution), LEWIS 

(5 to 300 m resolution), Space Imaging (1 to 4 m resolution), Earthwatch (3 to 15 m resolution), Earthwatch 

Quickbird (1 to 4 m resolution), OrbView 2 (1100 m 

resolution), OrbView-3 (1 to 8 m resolution), SPOT 4 

Vegetation Sensor (1000 m resolution), MODIS (250 to 

1000 m resolution)) is based on the following reasons. 

The cost of acquiring data from these high resolutions 

sensors is significantly higher than what it currently 

costs to acquire Landsat TM data. Users of these sensors 

Figure 1. Conceptual model for integration of monitoring design 

and institutional processes.
852 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

have shown that in terms of modeling large-scale spatial 

variability (Metzger 1997), Landsat TM data is superior 

to currently available SPOT data even though the latter has a finer resolution, but is also more expensive. 

Also the resolution associated with some of these new 

sensors are not the same across different spectral bands 

making it difficult to integrate with field data with the 

same level of precision. For this approach to work, it 

is important to have a wide range of spectral data at a 

consistent resolution. An additional benefit is that the 

spatial modeler involved in this work has considerable 

experience in working with TM. Therefore, Landsat 

TM data will be used as the remote sensing sensor 

of choice until some of these other sensors have been 

thoroughly evaluated.

In addition to the Landsat data, GIS grids of elevation, slope, and aspect will be developed from digital 

elevation models. Grid coverages for each topographic 

variable will be resampled (Resample function, nearest 

neighbor, Grid Module (ARC/INFO, ESRI 1995) to 

provide a 30 m spatial resolution so that an average 

elevation, slope and aspect can be assigned to each 

pixel

A separate ground sampling effort was also undertaken to collect data that will be used to construct a 

classified map of the cover types of Mexico. These 

ground data comprise approximately 2600 purposively 

chosen points. At each point, the GPS coordinates and 

the cover type are recorded. These data were used to 

determine the spectral signature of the TM data and 

landscape characteristics associated with each cover 

type. This will allow us to generate a preliminary land 

cover map.

Design-based Inference for Inventory 

and Monitoring (Level 2)

The development of the sampling and plot designs is 

complicated by the variety of indicators to be assessed, 

the need to assess the ecosystem resources at a range 

of scales, the need to monitor the indicators over time, 

and the need to do so efficiently. To meet national level 

objectives for ecosystem monitoring and large-scale assessments, a traditional grid-based sampling design is 

used. The plot locations are treated as a simple random 

sample of the landscape and post-stratification is employed as a variance reduction technique. This will be 

referred to as the Tier 1 inventory.

The next level of the survey is designed to meet State 

level inventory objectives. This is referred to as the Tier 

2 inventory. The only feature that distinguishes the Tier 

1 and 2 inventories is the increased sampling intensity 

in Tier 2.

Model-based Inference for Monitoring 

and Inventory (Levels 3-4)

For the remaining objectives involving estimation at 

local scales (levels 3 – 4), the plot data from the Tier 1 

and 2 inventories will be enhanced with additional ground 

plots to provide information needed to develop geostatistical models. These models will be used to describe the 

location and distribution of various resource attributes 

and to estimate key attributes at all locations within the 

sampled population.

To ensure that the spatial variability in the study area 

is captured, additional sample plots will be located to 

enhance the spatial models for use in local management 

applications. The location of these plots can be based 

on a pre-stratification scheme that locates plots in areas 

with the highest errors in the spatial models or where the 

spectrally-derived strata may not capture all of the unique 

spatial features on the landscape. The primary sampling 

unit (psu) is a 30 m x 30 m square.

Analytical Issues

The analysis of the Tier 1 and 2 inventory data is 

straightforward once the data have been edited and stored 

in an electronic file. An analysis program for Level 1 

and 2 data incorporating the estimators discussed later 

in this paper is now being developed in the computer 

language R. Analytical techniques for Levels 3 and 4 

of the inventory is more complicated, but software and 

training is available.

Study Area

The Pilot Study Area consists of the Mexican southwestern states of Jalisco and Colima with a continental 

area of approximately nine million hectares (twenty 

million acres). Though Jalisco is larger in area (90 

percent), the state of Colima (10 percent) plays a very 

distinctive role in the economy of the whole region and 

diversifies the Pilot Study Area considerably. Four major 

ecological regions provide the natural resources and environmental conditions that make this region one of the 

most prosperous in Mexico (fig. 2). The eco-regions are 

the transversal neo-volcanic system, the southern Sierra 

Madre, the Southern and Western Pacific Coastal Plain 

and Hills and Canyons, and the Mexican High Plateau. 

Linked to these ecological regions, there are several 

important Hydrological Regions (HR) that drain to the 

Pacific Ocean (HR12 Lerma-Santiago, HR13 Huicicila, 

HR14 Ameca, HR15 Costa de Jalisco, HR16 ArmeriaCoahuayana;, HR18 Balsas, and HR37 El Salado). One of 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 853

the watersheds, the Lerma-Santiago Hydrological Region 

is connected to Chapala Lake, the most important source 

of water for the City of Guadalajara.

Precipitation ranges from roughly 300 mm/year in 

some locations to more than 1200 mm/year in the higher 

elevations, with the principal precipitation coming in 

summer monsoons. The ecological systems of this region 

cut across the boundaries of other Mexican states. For 

example, several major watersheds drain through the 

tropical and subtropical forests of the state of Colima. 

Mostly in the state of Jalisco, water from surface and 

underground sources is heavily used for agriculture and 

industrial activities, though a significant portion goes to 

meet the domestic needs of approximately ten million 

people. While on average Colima is humid, water in 

the state of Jalisco is a critically limiting resource that 

threatens the sustainability of urban and rural ecological 

and economic systems. Most of the land (85 percent) 

in the state of Jalisco is privately owned. Small private 

landowners are the main driving force of economic development in agriculture, forestry, and rangeland economic 

activities. In contrast to Colima, for example, a small 

portion of Jalisco’s land is owned by ejidos (10 percent), 

communities (3 percent), and the government (2 percent). 

Recently, as a result of trade liberalization brought about 

by NAFTA policies, new industries have been established 

in these two states and natural resource utilization has 

increased due to higher population growth rates.

The region’s biophysical heterogeneity blends itself to 

bring about unique habitat conditions for a large diversity of plant and animal species. Within its boundaries, 

there are a significant number of species of mammals 

and birds, many of which are severely threatened by 

human activities. Some of the plant and animal species 

are endemic to specific locations within the ecological 

regions that comprise the Pilot Study Area. Extensive 

areas of pine-oak forest are home to “specialty” birds 

such as the thick-billed parrot, the Mexican-spotted owl, 

and woodpeckers. It is thought that habitat loss is the 

single most important element affecting bird populations 

in this ecosystem complex. Not much is known about 

how (what, when, where, why) plant and animal species are being impacted by human activities. Water and 

other biological resources are an integral part of these 

ecological regions whose services transcend geopolitical 

domains and jurisdictions.

The Design and Estimation for 

the Tier 1 and 2 Inventories

There is no “perfect” solution for the sample design 

and estimators for a large-scale inventory. Limitations 

associated with remote sensing, GPS, and the amount 

of time required by the field crews for data collection 

influence the design of the survey (Williams and Eriksson 

2002, Overton and Stehman 1996). The sampling strategy chosen for the JCPP is an efficient and flexible 

strategy.

An efficient sampling design for collecting information over large geographical areas is a systematic grid 

with equal spacing and a random start. It has the advantage of spreading the sample units uniformly throughout 

the population. However, the systematic grid design tends 

to be the least efficient for spatial modeling because the 

equal spacing between plots provides less information for 

modeling purposes than a design with uneven spacing. In 

order to avoid periodicity in the resource and to permit 

plots to occur at random distances for spatial modeling, 

the plots will be located randomly within hexagonal cells 

formed by a triangular grid. This grid of hexagon cells for 

the Tier 1 inventory will uniformly cover all of Mexico 

with the size of each hexagon being approximately 900 

km2. To facilitate across border assessments, the grid for 

Mexico is an extension of the one developed for the FIA 

inventory in the U.S. The triangular grid can be used to 

intensify the Tier 1 sample for meeting State level inventory needs. This State level intensification is the Tier 2 

component of the inventory. For the pilot study, the Tier 2 

inventory is a 36-fold intensification of the Tier 1 grid.

A ground plot is located within each hexagon cell in 

accordance with a uniform distribution. The field crews 

will locate all of the ground plots at the UTM coordinates 

at the center of the TM pixel given to them – accurate 

location of the points is important both for spatial modeling as well as future relocation of these permanent plots. 

The grid density will be set first to meet state needs. 

It will then be intensified to meet other multiple scale 

Figure 2. Geographic Location of Pilot Study Area in Mexico.
854 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

needs, based on available funding. The intensity can 

also be altered in each of the main hydrological regions 

or municipalities. Plot locations will be kept secret. The 

opportunity to intensify also exists for local areas within 

land tenure units, EAUs, or administrative units, as funding is made available.

The other major advantage of using Landsat TM data 

is that the pixels can be used to construct an area frame 

comprised of equal area sample units. The advantage 

of this area frame approach (Husch and others 1982, 

Eriksson 1995) is that it is a true equal probability sample 

regardless of the type of stratification used, with the 

inclusion probabilities of the sample units (e.g., trees, 

CWD, and other vegetation) along the boundaries of 

different subpopulations not needing adjustment. This 

is especially advantageous when the sample data will 

be post-stratified, because every division (stratification) of the population creates new subpopulations with 

new boundaries. These new boundaries would require 

adjustments to the inclusion probabilities of all population elements (trees) along the new boundaries and it 

is unlikely the data needed for these could or would be 

collected (see Williams and Eriksson 2002 for a discussion of this topic).

For estimation, the plots will be post-stratified using 

the classified Level 1 Landsat TM data. At a minimum, 

the entire population and each EAU will be stratified into 

areas that are predominantly forest or non-forest. The 

plots will also be assigned to these strata, and then the 

appropriate results for post-stratified random sampling 

will be applied (Cochran 1977, Schreuder and others 

1993). The estimators are given below. For large areas, 

the sample size in each stratum will be approximately 

proportional to the size of each stratum.

Description of the Ground Sample 

Units

The primary sampling units (psu) are a 90 m x 90 m 

(fig. 3) and a 30 m x 30 m (fig. 4) and are constructed 

with 3 x 3 blocks of Landsat TM pixels. Both psus will 

be sub-sampled by five 10m x 10m secondary sampling 

units (ssus). Each primary sampling unit will be centered 

on the coordinates assigned to it and will be laid out in 

a north-south, east-west manner. PSU locations will be 

verified using a Global Positioning System (GPS) with 

an estimated accuracy of within 3m.

In order to maintain an equal probability sample design and because the locational and registration errors in 

remote sensing and GIS technologies prevent an accurate 

subdivision of a pixel, a psu is considered either totally 

within a population or totally out of a population (or 

stratum). Thus the population boundaries are redefined 

to follow the area frame population boundaries created 

by the edges of the psus. A psu is ``in" when the center 

of the psu falls inside the population or stratum boundary. This creates a jagged stair stepped edge along the 

population boundaries, so a small portion of the actual 

landmass of an area segment will lie within the boundary of another area segment. The size of the difference 

should be minimal, generally less than 0.05 percent for 

the water sheds in the Green Belt.

Because these will be permanent plots, the psu center 

will be monumented on the ground. A sample of five of 

the 81 ssus will be selected for measurement, using a 

circular plot of 5 meter radius. This plot will be referred 

to as the 5 m plot. One 5m plot will be located at the psu 

center. The other four 5 m plots will be located at fixed 

angle directions and constant distance with respect to 

the psu center (fig. 3).

Several kinds of subplots will be located within each of 

the 5 m plots (fig. 5) and different measurements will be 

made on each plot type. All large trees (>12.5 cm DBH) 

will be measured on each of the 5 m plots. Observed 

attributes will be specified in the field sampling and indicator measurement manuals. Saplings (2.5 cm < DBH 

Figure 3. Plot Layout for the 90 m x 90 m Primary (PSU) and 

Secondary Sampling (SSU) Units.

Figure 4. Plot Layout for the 30 m x 30 m Primary (PSU) and 

Secondary Sampling (SSU) Units.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 855

< 12.5 cm) will be measured on a circular plot (3m radius) 

co-located at the center of each tree subplot. The term ‘3 

m plot’ will be used to denote this plot. Within each of 

the 5 m plots will be 3 square plots, each measuring 1 m 

x 1m. These will be referred to as 1 m quadrat. The first 

1 m quadrat will be located at the center of the 5 m plot. 

The remaining two are located 6m from the center plot, 

on a diagonal of the 5 m plot (fig 4). Seedlings (height > 

30 cm and DBH < 2.5 cm) will be sampled on three 1m 

quadrats. In addition to counting seedlings, the percent 

cover of herbaceous plants, shrubs, and tree species < 

30 cm tall will be recorded.

To estimate fuel loadings, a 10 m transect with a 

random orientation will be established. This will be referred to as the 10 m transect. Line intersect techniques 

will be used to estimate fuel loadings of large woody 

material (sound and rotten) > 7.5 cm in diameter. All 

large woody material intersecting the 10 m transect will 

be counted and their cross-sectional areas measured by 

genus. Medium size woody materials (2.5 to 7.4 cm in 

diameter) that are intersecting the first 5 m of the transect 

will be counted. In addition, the first, center, and last 1m 

of the diagonal transect will be used to count fine woody 

materials (0.01-2.4 cm in diameter). In each case, the 

mean height of fuels in each sampled diameter class, as 

well as the slope of the diagonal transect will be measured 

and reported, respectively.

Soil attributes will be observed on each 5 m radius 

plot. Any destructive soil samples will be collected on the 

west side (270 degree Azimuth) of the primary sampling 

unit at a distance of 5 meters of the plot boundary line.

Most of the indicator variables are compatible with 

those used by the USDA Forest Service and Canadian 

ecosystem resource monitoring programs. Other indicator 

variables can be integrated into this pilot study as resources 

become available and the need dictates to ensure comparability and interoperability of indicators with participating 

government agencies from the USA and Canada.

Selection of the Ground Plot Locations 

and the Assignment of Measurement 

Periods

Two procedures were used to locate the sample plots 

in the field. In the first procedure, plot locations were 

arranged on a triangular systematic grid with a random 

start, with plot locations falling at the intersection of a 

triangular grid with approximately 27 km point spacing. 

This grid allows for a four-year time span between remeasurement of each ground plot on an interpenetrating 

rotating panel design. Thus, the entire grid and each 

individual panel is evenly distributed within the area, 

with a sampling intensity of approximately one ground 

plot for every 6800 hectares (167,000 acres) for the 

FHM program.

The JCPP will adopt the same sampling intensity as 

FIA with one ground plot for every 2400 hectares and 

maintain across border consistency by meshing the 

hexagon grid covering Mexico with the existing grid 

covering the U.S. However, with the increased focus on 

spatial modeling, the placement of ground plots within 

each hexagon will not be on the systematic grid. Instead, 

the plot location within each hexagon will be completely 

random. This is done by generating a random (x, y)-coordinate that falls within each hexagon. The justification 

for this practice is that the estimation of correlograms 

and variograms is difficult when ground plot locations 

are equally spaced, especially when the scale of spatial 

patterns is expected to be much finer than the spacing 

of the grid. For the purpose of estimating population 

means and totals, this sample is still treated as a simple 

random sample of the land base, as is common with most 

environmental surveys. The justification for this practice 

is summarized by Ripley (1981. pp. 19-21).

The purpose of the hexagon grid is two-fold. In the first 

place it is used to establish a pseudo-systematic sample 

(with a random start) of ground plots across the JCPP 

study area. Secondly it is used to allocate ground plots 

to each yearly panel so that a good spatial representation of all conditions is represented in each panel. The 

hexagon grid has no other use in the estimation process. 

The resulting sample can be best described as a hybrid 

of centric- and nonaligned-systematic sampling (Ripley 

1981, pp.19-21).

The assignment of each plot to a panel is loosely based 

on the original design used by Forest Health Monitoring 

(FHM) and the current FIA design (fig. 6). The EMAP 

grid was developed for interpenetrating rotating panels 

of 3,4,7,9, and 11 years or any multiple. The FIA design 

is designed for sampling periods of 5, 7 or 10 years. 

The state of Jalisco tentatively plans a five year period 

of remeasurement.

Figure 5. Layout of Secondary Sampling Unit.
856 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

In the second approach, A two-stage sampling design 

is employed. In the first stage, the pilot study area was 

stratified by vegetation type (e.g., temperate forest, 

tropical forests, grasslands, mesquite forests, agricultural 

lands, etc.). Strata were defined using a detailed vegetation map of the pilot study area developed using an 

independent set of point data. Each stratum has a known 

size and is used as weights to obtain area-wide estimates. 

The number of sample plots within each stratum were 

allocated proportional to the size of the stratum and the 

variability within stratum. In the second phase, Landsat 

TM data was used to obtain an unsupervised classification of the spectral variability associated with each of 

the dominant vegetation types, or stratum identified in 

phase one. The number of spectral classes, or strata in 

the second stage, will vary, depending on the spectral 

variability observed within each stratum. An equal number of sample plots were randomly located within each 

spectral class. This ensures that the sample plots will 

cover the spectral variability associated with the Landsat 

TM image, which is essential for spatially interpolating 

the sample data.

Estimators for the TIER 1 and 2 

Inventories

The estimators for the Tier 1 and 2 inventories are 

simple. The purpose of this section is to present the estimators in detail. This allows the readers to progress only 

as far into the notation as necessary. Further justification 

for this approach and simulation results can be found in 

Williams and Patterson (2003).

One topic that will not be discussed in detail is the 

method used to assign stratum values to each 90 m X90 m 

psu. Instead, it is assumed that an effective stratification 

algorithm will be developed for various regions that will 

combine the individual pixel attributes, cover map information, and other auxiliary information contained within 

the area frame. The algorithm may reflect regional forest 

and landscape characteristics and may depend on the type 

of analysis being preformed. However, at this point in 

time there is too little known about available information 

to define a single technique for the study area.

Slightly different approaches are used to derive the 

estimators of various cover types versus the estimators 

associated with vegetation. Thus, these topics will be 

treated separately.

Estimators for total area of land by cover type 

or condition classes

To estimate the total area of forest or other condition 

class, the five 5 m plots of the psu are viewed as the 

second stage of a two-stage cluster sample. Multistage 

cluster plot sampling results are used to divide each 

psu into M=81 secondary sampling units, from which a 

sample of size m=5 is chosen (fig. 3).

While the estimators derived from the smaller plots 

sizes (e.g., the 3 m and 1 m plots) can be combined with 

the one derived from the 5 m plots, the nested structure of 

the these plots will produce highly correlated estimates. 

This correlation between the estimators of forest area is 

such that essentially no reduction in variance exists when 

estimating forest areas on anything other than the largest 

plot used (Williams and Patterson 2002). Thus, the area 

of forest or condition class is estimated using only the 

information from the largest plot size implemented.

Regardless of the plot size or the method of assignment to a stratum for each psu, the goal is to estimate the 

proportion of specific condition classes in each stratum. 

To accomplish this, the n ground plots are treated as a 

post-stratified sample with a random sample size of nh

in each stratum. For each ground plot, the proportion of 

the psu covered by forest is either estimated by a subsample of ssus or by measuring the proportion of the psu 

covering the condition class of interest. Thus, given that 

the assumptions are reasonable, the estimator of the area 

of forest is a post-stratified, two-stage cluster sample 

(Cochran 1977), given by

Aˆ

F = Apˆ F = A Nh

h=1 N

H

∑ phij

F

j=1 mnh

m

∑i=1

nh

∑















 (1)

where pF

hij is the proportion of forest in the j

th 5m subplot 

of the i

th PSU within the hth stratum.

Since the variance of Aˆ

F is equal to A2

Var pˆ ( ) F

suffices to determine Var pˆ [ ] F . The derivation of the 

variance combines results from the variance of a simple 

Figure 6. Numbering of each hexagon for the panel 

assignment.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 857

random post-stratified sample and the variance of a 

stratified two-stage sample (Cochran (1977), §5A.9 

and §10.9). Conditioning on the nh’s, Var pˆ [ ] F =Var[E[

pˆ ( ) F |nh

]]+E[Var[pˆ ( ) F |nh]]. Since for fixed stratum sample 

sizes, pˆ F is an unbiased estimator of pF, the first term is 

zero. For fixed nh,

Var pˆ ( ) F = Nh

N





 



 h=1

H

∑

2

1

nh

− 1

Nh





 



S1h

2 +

1− m / M

mnh

S2 h

2 



 





= 1

nh

Nh

N





 





2

S1h

2 − 1

m − 1M





 



S2 h

2 



 





















− Nh

N2 S1h

2

h=1

H

∑

(2)

(Cochran 1977). The next task is to find the 

expectation of 1/nh. Assuming the sample size is 

sufficiently large to preclude nh=0 then to order n-2, 

E 1

nh





 



 = 1

n(Nh / N

+

1− Nh / N

n2(Nh / N)

2

Using results derived in Cochran (1977) it can be 

shown that an unbiased estimator for the above approximation of Var pˆ [ ] F is given by

var pˆ [ ] F = 1

n

Nh

N

1− n

N





 



s1h

2 +

n

N

1

m − 1M





 



s2 h

2 



 



 h=1

H

∑

+ 1− Nh

N





 



 1

n2 s1h

2

(3)

where s1h

2 and s2 h2 are the between cluster and within 

cluster sample variances for stratum h (Cochran 1977). 

Due to the large number of psus (N) in comparison to 

sample size (n) the second term within the square brackets is small relative to the first term for both the Tier 1 

and 2 inventories.

Vegetation or tree estimators

In this section, the estimator that utilizes the tree information from the entire ground plot is given. Unlike the 

estimator for forest area, where the assumption is made 

that the psu is divided into M secondary sampling units, 

a different approach is taken. This is because the tree 

and other vegetation attributes are gathered from transect 

samples and across the 1 m, 3 m, and 5 m plots, which 

would require different M values and the calculation of 

the correlations between the estimators derived from 

each of the plot sizes. Thus, the proposed estimators of 

tree and other vegetation attributes within each psu are 

expressed as a triareal sampling design comprised of 

three different sized subplots (Husch and others 1982). 

The estimator for the total within each psu is expressed 

using a Horvitz-Thompson estimator. Two assumptions 

are necessary. The first is that systematic nature of the 

three subplots within each psu is equivalent to having the 

points randomly located within the psu. In the literature, 

this assumption has been justified by assuming that the 

location of trees in the forest has a random pattern within 

the psu (de Vries 1986). When this assumption is not 

realistic the variance estimator tends to over-estimate 

the variance. The second assumption is that none of the 

points falls close enough to the boundary of the psu so 

no adjustments to the inclusion probabilities of trees are 

required. This allows a constant inclusion probability to 

be assigned to all trees tallied on each of the three types 

of subplots. This assumption is necessary because it is 

impractical to obtain the actual probabilities of selection 

for border trees.

The n ground plots are treated as a post-stratified 

sample of psus, with a random sample size nh in each 

stratum. Within each psu, a tree-centered circle, or 1 m 

quadrat in the case of seedlings, (Husch and others 1982) 

is placed about each tree, the size of the circle is determined by the diameter at breast height limits, which in 

turn determine the inclusion probabilities. Then a tree is 

included in a sample drawn by a single point if the point 

lies within the tree-centered circle. Let a1m, a3m, and a5m

denote the area of the 1m quadrat-, 3 m-, and 5m radius 

plots respectively and let apsu=8100m2 denote the area 

of the psu. The probability that a tree is included in the 

sample drawn by a single point within the psu depends 

on the size of the tree and is defined as:

a1m/aPSU

π = a3m/aPSU

a5m/aPSU ,

where a1m is the area of the 1 m quadrat, a3m is the area 

of the 3 m radius plot, and a5m is the area of the 5 m 

radius plot.

The estimator given here is for the 3 m and 5 m radius 

plots, where m=5 plots are sampled within each psu. The 

estimator for the 1 m quadrats is defined analogously with 

the exception being the change in sample size to m=15. 

Estimation for the psu is based on the selection of 5 points 

within the psu and measurements of the subplots of 3 

m and 5 m radius respectively centered at these points. 

Let Thij be the number of trees tallied at the j

th point of 

psu i in stratum h. Then the estimator of the total of the 

tree attributes within the psu for the j

th point of psu i, in 

stratum h, is given by

ˆ

Yhij = Yhijt

t=1 πhijt

Thij

∑ with and respectively the value of interest 

and the probability of selecting tree t at point j, psu i, in 

stratum h.
858 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

with the estimator for the total of the PSU derived from 

the m=5 points being

ˆ

%

Yhi = 1

m

ˆ

Yhij

j=1

m

∑ .

An unbiased estimator of Var Y%

hi 

  is given by

var Y%

hi 

  = (m(m −1))

−1 ( ˆ

Yhij −Y%

hi)

2

j=1

m

∑ .

This estimator is derived by summing across the psus 

and strata. Then the estimator is

ˆ

Y = Nh

1

nh

Y%

hi

i=1

nh

∑ h=1

H

∑ (4)

An approximation of the variance of the estimator is 

given by

Var ˆY

  ≈ N2 Nh

N

1

n

+ (1− Nh

N ) 1n2





 



 h=1

H

∑ V Y%

hi 

 

+N2 Nh

N (

1

n

− 1

N ) 1n2





 



Sh

2 (1-Nh

)

N

[5]

where V ˆ

Yhi 

  = Var Y%

hi 

 / Nh i=1

Nh

∑ and

Sh

2 = (Yhi −Yh )2 / (Nh −1) i=1

Nh

∑ .

An unbiased estimate of the above approximation of 

Var[ ˆY ] is given by

var[ ˆY ] = N2 Nh

N

1

n

+ (1− Nh

N ) 1n2





 



var[Y%

hi + N2 Nh

N (

1

n

− 1

N )+ (1− NhN ) 1n2





 



 h=1

H

∑ s%h

2

Nh

N (

1

n

− 1

N )+ (1− NhN ) 1n2





 



s%h

2

,[6]

where var[ ˆ

Yhi] = var i=1

nh

∑ Y%

hi 

 / nh and

s%h

2 = (Y%

hi − %

Yh )

2 / (nh −1) i=1

nh

∑ .

The above estimation assumes that there are no plots 

or subplots that cannot be measured. A nuisance that 

arises with almost any type of field sampling with plots 

is that parts of the psu or subplots will fall outside the 

population of interest or are inaccessible to sampling 

either because of difficulty of terrain or to reach part of 

the sample in a practical manner we need to trespass on 

private land. Not all landowners will allow the crews on 

or across their land even to measure other lands. How 

to treat inaccessible plots or subplots is described in the 

appendix. The following estimator deals with the situation of missing plots or subplots. Post-stratification, as 

considered above, is not shown in the below formulation 

since it is a straightforward extension of what is given by 

simply applying the estimator shown to each stratum.

The most appropriate estimator to be used in estimating population totals with missing subplots is:

ˆ

Ys = A Aˆ

ijkYijk

k=1

nss

∑

j=1

ns

∑i=1

n

∑

















/ Aˆ

ijk

k=1

nss

∑

j=1

ns

∑i=1

n

∑















 (7)

and

ˆ

Y = A Aˆ

ijYij

j=1

ns

∑i=1

n

∑

















/ Aˆ

ij

j=1

ns

∑i=1

n

∑















 (8)

where Aˆ

ij and ˆ

Yij are the estimated sampled area and 

value of interest respectively in subplot j of plot i, n is 

the number of plots in the sample, ns is the number of 

subplots in the sample for plot i where ˆ

Ys is the estimator 

for subplot size s and subplot ss ,and mi is the number of 

subplots in the sample for plot i (Max and others 1996). 

We recommend the use of bootstrap variance estimators 

here as discussed in Schreuder and others (1993).

Line intersect sampling estimators

The line intersect sample (LIS) is drawn using m=5 

randomly oriented lines with the centers covering each 

of the 5 m plots. The estimator employed is the LIS 

estimator as described in Kaiser (1983) and Gregoire 

(1998), with the key difference being that the sample 

locations are a systematic sample subsample of the psu 

rather than five random locations. There should be little 

if any detectable bias in the resulting estimators, but the 

variance estimator should over-estimate the true sample 

variance. The LIS estimator for the amount of woody 

debris on the psu estimated from the m=5 L=10m lines 

with random orientation is given by

Yhi = 1

m

Yhij = 1

m

aPSU π

j=1 2L

m

∑

j=1

m

∑ ghijk

cosδ k=1 hijk

Pj

∑

where ghijk is the cross-sectional area of the log measured 

perpendicular to the long axis of the log (m3) for the kth

piece of debris on the j

th transect, Pj

 is the number of 

pieces of debris intersected by the j

th line, and δhijk is 

the slope of the log. In relatively flat terrain, δhijk , may 

be set to zero. However, a bias in excess of 10 percent 

can occur whenever the slope exceeds 25 percent. The 

derivation and further details for this estimator can be 

found in Kaiser (1983 example 2c).

The variance estimator given in eq. [6] applies.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 859

Other estimators

While area and vegetation totals are the primary forest 

attributes that are estimated, other estimators are also 

of interest. The first class are mean per tree estimators 

(average number of conks or disease agents per trees). 

The form of this estimator is ˆY = ˆY / Nˆ , where Nˆ is the 

estimator of the number of trees (eq. [4] with Yhijt=1). 

Another class of estimators is used to assess change. 

These have the form where and are the estimators at 

times 2 and 1, respectively.

Variance estimators for the mean per tree and difference estimators are

var( ˆY ) ≈ 1

Nˆ var( ˆ

Y )+ ˆ

Y

Nˆ var(Nˆ )− 2 ˆ

Y 2

Nˆ 2 cov( ˆ

Y,Nˆ )





 



(10)

and

var(∆ ˆY ) = var( ˆY2 )+ var( ˆY1 )− 2 cov( ˆY2 , ˆY1 ) (11)

Alternative estimators

At this point in time there are a number of alternative 

estimators that may offer advantages over the estimators 

given above.

In various circumstances we may have complete 

knowledge on a covariate associated with the variable of 

interest for which we know all the values in the population or we can get those with relative ease. Usually this 

information is combined with the information on the 

variable of interest measured on a sub-sample of the units 

in the population. Denoting by y= variable of interest and 

x= covariate, numerous estimators are possible. We focus 

only on the generalized regression and the ratio-of means 

estimators, the others are generally not desirable.

A very general, efficient estimator is the generalized 

regression estimator developed by C.E. Sarndal:

ˆ

Ygr = y1 / πi + agr (N − 1

i=1

n

∑ / πi)+ bgr (X − xi

i=1

n

∑ / πi) = yˆi + ei

i=1

n

∑ / πi

i=1

N

∑ i=1

n

∑

bgr (X − xi

i=1

n

∑ / πi) = yˆi + ei

i=1

n

∑ / πi

i=1

N

∑ (12)

where

yˆiagr + bgr xi , ei = yi − yˆi ,

ŷi = agr+bgr xi, ei = yi-ŷi,

agr = { 1

i=1

n

∑ / (πi

vi)− bgr xi

i=1

n

∑ / (πi

vi)}

/ 1

i=1

n

∑ / (πi

vi)

bgr = { 1

i=1

n

∑ / (πi

vi) xi yi

i=1

n

∑ / (πi

vi)− yi

i=1

n

∑

/(viπi) /{ 1

i=1

n

∑ / (πi

vi) xi

2

i=1

n

∑ / (vi

πi)−

[ xi / (

i=1

n

∑ vi

πi)]2}

i=1

n

∑xi

/(vi

πi)}

with variance:

V( ˆYgr = (1/ 2) (πiπ j

i≠ j

N

) ∑ )(ei / πi − ej / π j )

2 −πi j (13)

with 2 possible variance estimators given in Schreuder 

and others (1993) but we recommend using a bootstrap 

variance estimator here. This is the estimator to be used 

when possible.

Another estimator that is not a special case of the above 

is called the generalized ratio of means estimator:

ˆ

Yrm = ( yi / πi /

i=1

n

∑ xi

i=1

n

∑ )X = ( ˆ

YHT / Xˆ

HT /πi )X (14)

with approximate variance

V( ˆYrm ) =V( ˆYHT )− 2RCov( ˆYHT , ˆYHT )+ R2V(Xˆ

HT ). (15)

There is a good discussion in Schreuder and others 

(1993) but again, we recommend using a bootstrap variance estimator. Both the generalized regression and the 

ratio-of-means estimator are asymptotically unbiased.

There will be opportunities to use Ŷgr in the pilot study. 

With the heavy emphasis on remote sensing platforms 

we will examine what we can do with that in relation to 

the ground sampling to obtain improved estimates for 

some parameters.

Variance estimators can also be derived that utilize 

re-sampling techniques, with the most common being 

bootstrap and jackknife estimators. Bootstrap samples 

are generated by repeating the sampling design with replacement at the same sample sizes as the actual sample 

design and then generating estimates for each bootstrap 

sample. The variance between those estimates is the 

variance estimate for the estimator of interest. Usually 

2000 bootstrap samples are generated. This is applicable 

for all estimators above.
860 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Summary and 

Recommendations

The statistical strategies presented in this document 

significantly benefit from the experience that exists in 

Canada and the United States. In light of how rapid 

technology has been evolving, these strategies incorporate new design elements so that remote sensing and 

land measurement protocols processes can be unified 

for purposes of making reliable statistical inferences. 

Consistency of data collection protocols at national 

and state levels is essential for this strategy to work 

properly and generate estimates of known confidence. 

Its implementation on the Pilot Study Area produced 

valuable information for improving design elements and 

data analysis approaches. How the two strategies can be 

integrated even better and to determine what would be 

the best plot to use to constitute some of the questions 

to be addressed after the full analyses of the data from 

this project.

References

Cliff, A.D. and Ord, J.K. 1981. Spatial processes: models and 

applications. Pion, London. 266 p.

Cochran, W.G. 1977. Sampling Techniques. 3rd ed. John Wiley 

and Sons, New York. 428p.

De Vries, P. 1986. Sampling Theory for Forest Inventory. John 

Wiley & Sons, New York.

Efron, B. and Tibshirani, R.J. 1993. An introduction to the 

bootstrap. Chapman and Hall, NY. 436 p.

Eriksson, M. 1995. Design-based approaches to horizontal 

point sampling. For. Sci. 41:890-907.

Gregoire, T.G. and Scott, C.T. 1990. Sampling at the stand 

boundary: A comparison of the statistical performance 

among eight methods. In: Proc. XIX World Forestry 

Congress IUFRO. Montreal, Canada. Aug. 5-11, 1990. 

Publ. No. FWS-3-90, Virginia Polytechnic Inst and Univ, 

Blacksburg, VA, pp 78-85.

Husch, B., C.I. Miller and T.W. Beers. 1982. Forest Mensuration 

3rd ed. J. Wiley and Sons, New York. 402p.

Johnson, D. S., M. S. Williams, and R. L. Czaplewski. 2002. 

A test of some estimators for rolling samples using Forest 

Inventory and Analysis data. For. Sci. 49:50-63.

Kaiser, L., 1983. Unbiased estimation in line-intersect sampling. Biometrics 39:965-976.

LePage, R. and Billard, L. eds.1992. Exploring the limits of 

bootstrap. Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical 

Statistics: Applied Probability and Statistics Section. NY. 

426 p.

Max, T.A., Schreuder, H.T., Hazard, J.W., Oswald, D.D., 

Teply, J. and J. Alegria. 1996. The Pacific Northwest Region 

Vegetation and Monitoring System. USDA Forest Service 

PNW Res Paper RP-493. 22p

Metzger, K. 1997. Modeling forest stand structure to a ten 

meter resolution using Landsat TM data. M.S. Thesis, Colo. 

State Univ. Ft. Collins, CO. 123 p.

Overton, W.S. and Stehman, S.V. 1996. Desirable design 

characteristics for long-term monitoring of ecological 

variables. Env Ecol Stat 3:349=361.

Schreuder, H. T., T. G. Gregoire, and G. B. Wood. 1993. 

Sampling Methods for Multiresource Forest Inventory. 

John Wiley and Sons, NY 446 p.

Schreuder, H. T, Ernst, R. and H. Ramirez-Maldonado. 2004. 

Statistical techniques for sampling and monitoring natural 

resources. USDA Forest Service RMRS Gen Tech. Rep 

RMRS-GTR-126. 111 p.

Williams, M. S., and Eriksson, M. 2002. Comparing the two 

paradigms for fixed-area sampling in large-scale inventories. For. Ecol. Manage.168: 135-148.

Williams, M. S., and P. L. Patterson 2003. Comparison of 

area estimation techniques for established surveys using 

remotely sensed and ground data. For. Sci. 49: 392-401.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 861

Introduction

The USDA Forest Service’s Forest Inventory and 

Analysis Units (FIA) report on the condition of forests 

within the United States and its territories. To this end, 

the Forest Service recently initiated an annualized forest 

inventory sampling design in order to improve estimation of both the current resource inventory and changes 

in the resource. Roesch (in review) gives the theory 

for a generalized three-dimensional explanation of the 

current sample frame. In two dimensions, the sample 

plots are located relative to a systematic triangular grid 

consisting of k mutually-exclusive interpenetrating panels. If the number of sample plots equals n, then each 

panel consists of approximately n/k plots. Time is the 

third dimension, incorporated by measuring one panel 

per year for k consecutive years, after which the panel 

measurement sequence reinitiates. That is, if panel 1 was 

measured in 1997, it will also be measured in 1997+k, 

1997+2k, and so on. Panel 2 would then be measured 

in 1998, 1998+k, 1998+2k, etc. (Figure 1.) The panels 

are assigned to previously measured and new plots in a 

spatially systematic manner.

The sample is drawn from a three-dimensional cube, 

two dimensions constitute the land area and the third 

dimension is time. Roesch (in review) describes the 

two areal dimensions of the design as the joint selection of previously existing and new sample points by 

a randomly applied triangular grid. It is assumed that 

the sample points from the entire collection of previous 

periodic inventories constitute a random sample from 

the infinite set of points within the geographically-defined population described above. The sample unit is a 

series of line segments, linear in time. That is, when the 

time dimension is collapsed down onto the area dimensions, each series of line segments collectively appear 

as a single point on the area. Each line segment within 

a series is of an approximate length of 1 day. Individual 

segments occur every (k +/- 1) year, within each series. 

Within a sufficiently small segment of time, all points 

within the land area dimensions of the volume common 

to each area segment created by the overlapping inclusion areas of all possible subsets of trees occurring on the 

land area (sensei Roesch et. al. 1993) could be viewed as 

a temporally-specific sampling unit. However, because 

these segments change as time progresses, the sample 

unit appears as a point in the temporally-specific land 

area dimensions of the volume. That is, if the population 

is sliced into, say, annual volumes, and then the annual 

sub-population is viewed from the top, a set of N/k points 

on the land area base will be observed. The thinner the 

temporal slice, the smaller the sample per land area of 

interest and the wider the slice, the fuzzier the segment 

The FIA Panel Design and Compatible Estimators for the 

Components of Change

Francis A. Roesch, Mathematical Statistician, Southern Research Station, USDA Forest 

Service, Asheville, NC 

Abstract—The FIA annual panel design and its relation to compatible estimation systems 

for the components of change are discussed. Estimation for the traditional components 

of growth, as presented by Meyer (1953, Forest Mensuration) is bypassed in favor of 

a focus on estimation for the discrete analogs to Eriksson’s (1995, For. Sci. 41(4):796-

822) time invariant redefinitions of the components of change, as evaluated in Roesch 

(2004), and Roesch (in review). A simple extension of the mixed estimation framework 

for forest inventory trends presented in Van Deusen (1996, Can. J. For. Res. 26: 1709-

1713.) and Van Deusen (1999, Can. J. For. Res. 29(12): 1824-1828) is used to unify 

estimation of the individual components.

Figure 1. A rotating panel design with 5 panels and a five-year 

remeasurement period.
862 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

boundaries, due to changes in both the land area and 

the subpopulations of trees within the land area. The 

temporal slices should be thin enough that all daily line 

segments (sample units) associated with a point on the 

land area can be considered exchangeable. We usually 

(but not always) assume that the assignment of measurement day within panel (slice) is ignorable. When we can 

make this assumption, the plot measurements support 

the entire line segment within the panel volume (that is 

all days constituting the slice.) For most forestry purposes, annual slices will constitute the minimum height 

that forms a reasonable compromise between temporal 

specificity and land area generality.

Below, I briefly review the traditional components of 

growth as presented by Meyer (1953) and subsequently 

show the intuitively appealing redefinition of the components of change given by Eriksson (1995). I then discuss 

how discrete analogs to Erickson’s components could be 

estimated from the annual inventory design.

Components of Growth

Meyer (1953) expressed the components of forest 

growth as:

V2 - V1 = S + I - M - C, (1)

where:

Vi

 = the total value at time i, i=1,2,

S = survivor growth,

I = ingrowth,

M = mortality, and

C = cut.

Estimators for the components of growth are considered compatible if they can replace the population 

parameters in equation (1) without destroying the equality.

 Roesch (2004) and Roesch (in review) claim that the 

weakness of the traditional definitions of the components 

of growth lies in their inherent dependence on the length 

of the measurement interval because the definition of the 

components of growth for the population is dependent 

upon the time that the relative sample stages are executed. 

By these definitions, the components are not strictly 

population parameters to be estimated. Rather, they were 

a convenient marriage of a population and its sample. 

Unfortunately, the marriage ceased to remain convenient 

when the sample design changed in a significant way. 

Components of Change

Eriksson (1995) recommended a new set of definitions, labeled the components of change, that were 

applicable over a temporal continuum, as opposed to the 

traditional growth component definitions that were not 

time-additive over multiple period lengths. For example, 

over a ten-year period in which all plots are measured 

in years 0, 5, and 10, the sums of the expected values of 

the estimators of each component over the two intervals 

(years 0-5 and 5-10) would not equal the expected value 

of the estimators sans the year 5 measurement. The components of change given by Eriksson (1995) are defined 

by population attributes and are therefore not sample 

dependent. Non-additivity is a valid concern due to a 

fundamental flaw in the original definition of the components of growth. Additionally, the redefinitions become 

extremely compelling in the realm of annual inventories. 

The discussion above at least suggests that the original 

definitions are inadequate for time-interpenetrating 

sample designs, such as this rotating panel design. 

Eriksson (1995) noted that the traditional component of ingrowth consists of both the value of the trees 

that attain the minimum merchantability limit and the 

growth in value subsequent to attaining the minimum 

merchantability limit. Obviously, the later should actually be attributed to survivor growth. Paraphrasing the 

definitions of Eriksson (1995), live tree growth is the 

growth in value that occurs on trees after the minimum 

merchantability limit has been achieved. Entry is the 

value of trees as they attain the minimum merchantability limit. Mortality is the value of trees as they die, and 

Cut is the value of trees as they are harvested. Roesch 

(2004, in review) used discrete analogs to Eriksson’s 

(1995) definitions with a small (1 year) interval length 

for two reasons, (1) an assumption that 1 year is about the 

minimum interval length required for the growth signal 

to overpower measurement error, and (2) to facilitate a 

tractable temporal partitioning of the observations.

Implicit in the use of the discrete definitions is the 

assumption that no growth occurs on mortality and cut 

trees during year of death or harvest. During the time 

interval of interest, a tree can contribute to multiple 

components of change. For example, an individual may 

enter the population, live for two years and then die in 

between observation instances.

The discrete intervals allow the definition of a set 

of indicator matrices, one for each component, having 

one row for each tree in the population during the forest inventory. For example, the indicator matrix for the 

entry component:

time = P P-1...1 tree

IE= 

0 0L1

0 0O0

0 1O0

1 0L0

























1

M

M

N

.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 863

In IE, the first column is for the most recent year of the 

inventory, and each successive column is one year prior 

to the previous column. For each tree, all columns are 

zero except for the year of entry, which would contain 

a 1. Analogous indicator matrices for tree mortality, IM, 

and for tree harvest, IC, are defined. The indicator matrix 

for the live category contains a 1 for each year that a tree 

is alive subsequent to its entry year and prior to its year 

of harvest or death, and a 0 otherwise:

IL= 

0 0L0

1 1O1

0 1O0

1 1L1

























1

M

M

N

The four indicator matrices are of equal dimension and 

sum to the population indicator matrix, IP=IE+IL+IM+IC. 

Likewise, we form a value matrix of the same dimension:

v= 

v1,P v1,P−1 L v1,1

v2,P v2,P−1

M O M

vN ,P M vN ,1





























, 

and an (Nx1) entry value vector: 

v1

E

v2

E

M

M

vN

E

































The period of interest of length t beginning in year 

h (h≥1,h+t≤P) is selected by defining a column vector 

Yh+t,h in which rows represent time in reverse annual 

order. A row contains a 1 for a year of interest and a 0 

otherwise.

Additionally, we define the first difference matrix with 

P-1 columns and P rows, such that the ordered pair 

1

−1





 





appears once and only once in each column and all other 

entries are zero. The ordered pair occupies the first two 

positions in the first column, and moves one position 

down in each subsequent column:

P-1 P-2... ... 1

d1= 

1 0L 0 0

−1 1 L 0 0

0 −1O M M

0 0L−1 1

0 0L 0 −1

































P

P −1

M

M

1

The change components are represented as:

Entry: Eh,h+t=(IE'vE)'Yh+t,h+1,

Live growth: Lh,h+t=(IL'(vd1))'Yh+t,h+1+[IE'(vvE)]'Yh+t,h+1,

Merchantable Mortality: Mh,h+t=(IM'v)'Yh+t-1,h, and

Merchantable Cut: Ch,h+t=(IC'v)'Yh+t-1,h.

We also estimate Merchantable Volume at times h+t 

to h: Vh+t,h=(IP'v)'Yh+t,h.

It is important to clearly distinguish the attributes that 

truly belong to the population from those that are artifacts 

of the sample design. My suggestions for estimation 

recognize (1) a measurement interval length (say five 

years) that is longer than the minimum growth interval 

of one year, and (2) annually overlapping measurement 

intervals that result from the rotating panel design.

Mixed Estimator

The components of change definitions are superior 

to the traditional components of growth for a number 

of reasons, the time additivity advantage pointed out 

by Eriksson (1995) being the most obvious. However, 

that does not necessarily translate into a stronger argument for forcing compatibility of the estimates of the 

components. Suppose that our sample design consists 

of five overlapping continuously remeasured panels, 

one panel measured each year and then remeasured 

five years hence. The strongest signal for value during 

any particular year will come from the panel actually 

measured in that year, while the strongest signal for the 

live growth component will come from the panel with a 

remeasurement interval centered on that year. A mixed 

estimator would seem to be a good way to balance the 

desire for the “best” estimate for each component with 

a desire for compatible estimates. The mixed estimator 

draws strength from overlapping panels. It’s a generalized least squares estimator in which model constraints 

are appended to the data matrices. Van Deusen (1996, 

1999, 2000) showed mixed estimators for successive 

annual estimates. Roesch (2001) tested mixed estimators 

using both real and simulated data, finding the mixed 

estimators to perform quite well relative alternative 

techniques. Roesch (in review) argues for an approach 

that involves building compatibility constraints for the 

components of change into a mixed estimator after noting 

that compatibility requires, for any i and any t, the strict 

equality: Vˆ

i+t −Vˆt = ˆ

Li,i+t + Eˆ

i,i+t − Mˆ i,i+t −Cˆi,i+t .

Consider a model in which the observed midpoint 

values are used to constrain the component estimates. 

That is, for k, an integer, and t≥k+1 let

δt

k =

(Vt−( k−1

2 ) −Vt−( k+12 )

), if k is odd:

(Vt−( k−2

2 ) −Vt−( k+22 )

), if k is even;











and form a four-column row vector of components such 

that:
864 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

χt

k =

Lt−k ,t

k

|

Et-k ,t

k

|

-Mt-k ,t

k

|

-Ct−k ,t

k , if k is odd;

2Lt-k ,t

k

|

2Et−k ,t

k

|

−2Mt−k ,t

k

|

−2Ct−k ,t

k ,if k is even;













Assume an observation model at each time t: 

δt

k = χtk

βt + et ,

where ßt is a vector of coefficients with a row for each 

component and et is iid (0, σ2

t 

/mt), and combine it with 

a reasonably constrained transition model.

Form a vector from the, δt

k 's,∆ = δk+1k ,K,δTk 

 ' , a 

matrix X, from the χk

t

's, having ((T-k)*4) columns. 

The vector χk

t

 is placed in row i beginning in column ((i1)*4)+1). The rest of the elements in the row are zeros. 

Concatenate successive elements of the column vectors 

ßt into the column vector 

β =

βk+1

M

βT



















, having ((T-k)*4) 

rows. Form vectors from the error terms e=[ek+t,...,eT]' 

and ε=[εk+t,...,εT]'. Represent equation (3) with: 

Δ=χβ+e (4)

Represent the covariance matrix of Δ with Σ. The 

temporal constraints can be re-expressed as:

Rβ=ε (5)

where R is the appropriately sized matrix of constraints 

for the transition model.

Combining the observation model with the transition 

model:

∆

0





 



 = X

R





 



β + e

ε











 (6)

Following Van Deusen (1999), the error vectors e and 

ε are assumed to have independent multivariate normal 

distributions. ε represents random deviations applied to 

the beta coefficients, which should be independent of the 

sampling errors represented by e. Theil’s (1963, 1971) 

mixed estimator for β, is:

ˆ

β = X′Σ−1X +

1

p

R′Ω−1R





 





−1

X′Σ−1∆

The transition covariance matrix Ω is assumed to be a 

scaled submatrix of Σ, allowing us to adapt a maximum 

likelihood estimator of the parameter p given by Van 

Deusen (1999), which determines the strictness of the 

constraints.

Conclusion

In this paper and the previous ones cited, I attempted 

to clearly distinguish the effect of scale in the definition 

of the components of change from the effect on our 

ability to estimate the components of change at different 

scales caused by the sample design. Once this distinction has been made, it is clear that the annual estimates 

of the components of change desired by users of FIA 

data can only be obtained through the use of models applied to the sample design. That is, there are no strictly 

design-unbiased estimators for the annual components 

of change available for this rotating panel design. The 

mixed estimation technique allows us to use simple 

models to make well-supported estimates at varying 

scales by drawing strength from measurements made on 

temporal “neighbors”.

Literature Cited

Eriksson, M. 1995. Compatible and time-additive change 

component estimators for horizontal-point-sampled data. 

Forest Sci. 41(4):796-822.

Meyer, H.A. 1953. Forest Mensuration. Penn Valley Publishers, 

Inc. State College, Pa. 357 pp. 

Roesch F. A. 2001. Mixed Estimation for a Forest Survey 

Sample Design. In 1999 Proceedings of the Section on 

Statistics and the Environment: 1-6, American Statistical 

Association, Presented at the Joint Statistical Meetings 

Baltimore, MD August 8-12, 1999.

Roesch, F. A. 2004. Continuous Inventories and the 

Components of Change. Paper presented at the 2nd 

International Conference on Forest Measurements and 

Quantitative Methods and Management & the 2004 

Southern Mensurationists Meeting. June 15-18, 2004. Hot 

Springs, AR.

Roesch, F. A. (in review). Compatible Estimators of the 

Components of Growth for an Annual Forest Inventory 

Design.

Roesch, F.A. Jr., E. J. Green, and C. T. Scott. 1993. A test of 

alternative estimators for volume at time 1 from remeasured horizontal point samples. Can. J. For. Res. 23(4): 

598-607. 

Theil, H. 1963. On the use of incomplete prior information in 

regression analysis. JASA 58:401-414.

Theil, H. 1971. Principles of Econometrics. John Wiley & 

Sons. New York.

Van Deusen, P. C. 1996. Incorporating predictions into an 

annual forest inventory. Can. J. For. Res. 26: 1709-1713.

Van Deusen, P. C. 1999. Modeling trends with annual survey 

data. Can. J. For. Res. 29(12): 1824-1828.

Van Deusen, P.C. 2000. Alternative sampling designs and 

estimators for annual surveys. In: Integrated Tools For 

Natural Resources Inventories In The 21st Century, USDA 

Forest Service, North Central Research Station GTR NC212, Mark Hansen & Tom Burk editors.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 865

Introduction

Land ownership patterns around many of Colorado’s 

mountain communities reflect the legacy of the region’s 

mining past. While visitors see forested hillsides and 

high mountain tundra, an unseen world of jumbled 

private inholdings within a matrix of public land exists 

beneath this alpine landscape. A remnant of 19th century 

legislation intended to help settle the sparsely inhabited 

and mineral rich west; this ownership pattern presents 

significant 21st century challenges for surrounding 

mountain communities. The General Mining Law of 1872 

provided for “patenting” open public land – a process 

in which public land is converted to private ownership. 

Figure 1 shows the chaotic ownership pattern of patented 

mining claims in the northern San Juan Mountains in 

southwestern Colorado.

1872 vs 2004: Mining Claim Meets the World Wide Web

Edward Russell, computer scientist, Computer Terrain Mapping, Inc., Boulder, CO

Abstract—Inappropriate development or land use on private inholdings in a matrix of 

predominantly public land have the potential to profoundly impact backcountry landscapes. Beyond damage to natural systems and cultural resources, ramifications include 

impacts on neighboring communities dependent upon tourism and backcountry recreation for their economic vitality. Limited financial resources make geotechnologies an 

ideal tool for prioritizing inholdings for land conservation acquisition or other means of 

protection. The World Wide Web holds tremendous promise for distributing geographic 

information and applications for use in conservation planning by local governments, 

land managers, and conservation professionals. Two example projects in the rugged 

San Juan Mountains of southwestern Colorado illustrate the potential and challenges 

that these technologies hold for rural communities.

Figure 1. Patented mining claims in a portion of the northern San Juan Mountains.
866 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Managing the landscape to preserve natural values, 

historic resources, and recreational access is a daunting 

challenge within this incoherent ownership framework. 

Construction of second homes and vacation cabins 

- “backcountry sprawl” - further fragments wildlife 

habitat, compromises scenic vistas and strains local 

government’s ability to provide services and infrastructure. Furthermore, drainage from open adits and 

runoff from tailings piles can create downstream water 

quality problems with consequential environmental liability issues for organizations that seek to mitigate these 

negative impacts.

For workers concerned with conservation-oriented 

land management alternatives, the magnitude of the 

inholding problem can be overwhelming. To make the 

problem more manageable, we’ve developed a methodology that ranks private parcels according to their 

conservation priority. This methodology takes into account both the intrinsic conservation resource values 

associated with each parcel along with an estimate of the 

likelihood of (residential or commercial) development 

based upon physical constraints present on the property. 

The highest ranking properties are those with the greatest occurrence of conservation resources and the highest 

development potential based upon physical constraints. 

Conservation workers can then design management or 

acquisition scenarios based upon available financial 

resources matched with critical priority parcels.

With many land managers located in dispersed, rural 

locales, internet-based technologies have become an 

important distribution vehicle for geospatial data and services. Cash strapped local governments, federal agencies 

and nonprofits need only an internet connection and web 

browsing software to access capabilities that typically 

costs thousands of dollars a “seat” for desktop licensing. 

Two projects – the Red Mountain component of the San 

Juan Skyway Spatial Analysis and Mapping Project and 

the Alpine Loop Back Country Byway Spatial Analysis 

and Mapping Project – in portions of Hinsdale, Ouray, 

San Juan and San Miguel counties utilized the conservation priorities methodology to rank private inholdings 

within the area illustrated in figure 1. References to the 

“northern San Juan” area that follow indicate the area of 

figure 1 and the two projects mentioned above.

Economics, Demographics and 

Politics

Figure 2 shows the change in the number of jobs in 

different industries over time for Ouray County. This 

chart illustrates the decline of mining as an employment 

base and the ascendance of recreation / tourism related 

jobs in the retail and service sectors. It also depicts the 

increasing importance of the construction and real estate 

industries for this county. These trends are fairly typical 

of other northern San Juan counties. The recreation and 

tourism industries are highly dependent on the region’s 

natural and cultural amenities. Consequently, protecting 

the region’s natural and cultural resources also helps to 

protect the region’s economic vitality.

The outdoor amenities offered by the San Juan region 

have made the area desirable for part-time residents. 

Table 1 shows the percentage of second or seasonal 

homes for counties within the northern San Juan area 

determined from the 2000 Census. The table also gives 

the county’s second home ranking within the state. 

Seasonal activities such as winter skiing, fall hunting and 

high country summer recreation are major draws to the 

mountainous counties including those in the San Juans. 

The second home industry contributes significantly to 

local economies through jobs in construction, real estate, 

and finance (fig. 2).

Many San Juan Mountain counties have very high 

levels of public land ownership. Table 2 shows the land 

stewardship breakdown for four northern San Juan 

counties. The percentage of land in public ownership is 

particularly high for San Juan and Hinsdale counties (~89 

Figure 2. Economic profile for Ouray County, Colorado. This 

graph illustrates the number of jobs in selected industries 

as a function of time. Large scale mining ended with the 

closure of the Idarado mine in 1978 (adapted from The 

Wilderness Society 2000).

Table 1. Percentage of second or seasonal homes for 4 

northern San Juan counties. The rank is within 63 Colorado 

counties in 2000 (Bureau of Census 2000).

County 2nd Homes (%) Rank in Colorado

Hinsdale 61.3 1

San Juan 49.4 4

San Miguel 33.5 10

Ouray 12.7 24
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 867

percent and ~96 percent respectively). As a consequence, 

acquisition of private land and subsequent transfer to 

public ownership frequently meets significant political 

opposition. Reasons for opposition include decreased 

property tax base, restriction of residential and commercial growth opportunities, and a general distrust of 

federal government intentions. This presents an added 

challenge to those interested in land conservation in these 

counties. Other land management alternatives such as 

land exchanges, recreational easements, or transfer of 

development rights should be considered in this political context.

Significant Resources

Several significant natural and cultural resources draw 

visitors to the region and add to the quality of life for 

local residents. These resources have been identified by 

project stakeholders for preservation and enhancement 

and were included as components in the GIS modeling 

process.

Recreation

Recreational activities in the area are numerous and 

include hiking, biking, off highway motorized use, 

mountaineering, rock climbing, skiing, snowshoeing, 

snowmobiling, camping, horseback riding, fishing, 

rafting and kayaking. As mentioned above, recreation 

and tourism have become the major components of the 

region’s economy.

Recreational elements included in the GIS analysis 

were roads, trails, campgrounds and huts, trail heads, 

ski areas and historic railroads.

Historic

The northern San Juans contain an outstanding record 

of Colorado’s hard rock mining era. Beyond a snapshot 

of life of a bygone time, the region’s historical resources 

provide an important record of innovation in mining 

technology. The Red Mountain Pass area has been referred to as a mining “Silicon Valley” for the technical 

advancements that the area produced (Clifton 2003). 

Along with outdoor recreation, these historical resources 

provide a significant visitor draw.

The Colorado Historical Society (CHS) maintains a 

database of inventoried historic sites that were used in 

the spatial modeling exercise.

Ecological

The montane, subalpine, and alpine environments 

found in the northern San Juans provide habitat for a 

number of economic species and species of special concern, including elk, mule deer, boreal toad, ptarmigan, 

lynx, and moose. A number of potential conservation areas identified by the Colorado Natural Heritage Program 

(CNHP) occur within the northern San Juan region.

Important habitat and ecological areas from a variety 

of data sources were used in the GIS modeling.

Scenic

The San Juan region is renowned for its scenic 

splendor. The San Juan Skyway, which runs through the 

western portion of the study area, is referred to as the 

“most scenic drive in America.” The City of Ouray uses 

the moniker of “Switzerland of America” for its scenic 

character.

Visual resources were modeled through viewshed 

mapping and skyline analysis (areas where structures 

would break the skyline) from designated roadways 

within the study area.

Watershed

Four significant drainages have their headwaters in 

the northern San Juan project area. The Lake Fork of the 

Gunnison and the Uncompahgre River are major tributaries to the Gunnison River. The San Miguel River is a 

major tributary to the Dolores River; the Animas River 

is a major tributary to the San Juan River. These watersheds provide source water for numerous downstream 

communities. Healthy watersheds result in healthier 

ecosystems and higher water quality for drinking water, 

recreation, and agricultural operations.

Buffers around streams and water bodies were used 

in the modeling.

Threats to Resource Integrity

Reliable recreational access to the region’s “magnet” 

locations becomes especially important in the currently 

prevailing economic climate. While the vast majority 

of recreational destinations are located on public land, 

Table 2. Percentage of land in public ownership (undifferentiated). 

The rank is within 63 Colorado counties (Division of Wildlife, 

NDIS web site).

County Total Public Land (%) Rank in Colorado

Hinsdale 95.5 1

San Juan 88.9 3

San Miguel 62.2 23

Ouray 45.5 33
868 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

backcountry access roads and trails frequently cross 

private inholdings. Conflict arises when public access 

through these inholdings is challenged by private landowners. In San Miguel County, access along the standard 

route up Wilson Peak, one of Colorado’s popular “14ers” 

(peaks over 14,000 ft in elevation) has been blocked by 

the owner of a private inholding in U.S. Forest Service 

land. Since these 14ers are destinations for many thousands of hikers a year, closures of this type can have local 

economic ramifications.

With each passing year, the harsh high country conditions take their toll on historic structures. Stabilization 

and restoration efforts on private property cannot take 

place without landowner permission and adequate funding. While this “passive destruction” slowly degrades 

the structural integrity of historic sites, deliberately 

destructive acts can have an immediate and devastating 

impact. In August 2002, a Red Mountain Pass landowner 

destroyed historic structures on his property that had 

been built over a hundred years earlier (Greenhill 2002). 

Ostensibly to eliminate “attractive nuisance” liability, 

some felt that this destruction, together with the “for 

sale” signs on the property, were a form of blackmail to 

set a higher-than-market-rate price.

An owner of a patented mining claim has the same 

rights as owners of other private parcels, including the 

right to construct a home or cabin. In sensitive high 

country environments, construction of homes 

and access roads often fragments wildlife 

habitat, impacts scenic vistas and creates 

demand for new local government services, 

such as winter road maintenance and remote 

emergency services. In addition, for privacy, 

safety and liability reasons, new mountain 

residents may block recreational routes that 

have traditionally, though unofficially, crossed 

their property.

The area’s mining heritage has a downside 

as well. Mining’s legacy extends beyond historic structures and the record of hard rock 

mining innovation to draining adits, tailings 

piles and downstream pollution. Researchers 

investigating frail-boned white tailed ptarmigan have linked this condition to elevated 

cadmium levels in willows, a primary ptarmigan food source (Larison and others 2000). 

Fish populations have been impacted for tens 

of miles and water quality standards have not 

been met for the Animas River, which provides drinking water for the communities of 

Silverton and Durango (Robinson and Odell 

2002). Short term gain was emphasized at the 

expense of long term unintended or ignored 

consequences. It’s worth reflecting on our actions today 

and their potential impact on future generations.

Conservation Priorities 

Methodology

To address the issues of land conservation within the 

context of these resources and threats, we’ve developed 

a methodology to prioritize lands based upon their conservation resource values and likelihood of development 

(fig. 3). The “Landscape-Based Conservation Priorities” 

section of the figure illustrates two vital components: 

“Resource Value” (or conservation resource value) and 

“Development Potential.” This section is referred to as 

landscape-based because it focuses predominantly on 

the naturally occurring systems – in other words., topographic, vegetative, geologic, etc. - largely separate from 

the human imposed land ownership pattern.

Resource value is the combination of spatial factors 

that contribute to the intrinsic conservation value of the 

area. These conservation resources include scenic vistas, 

critical wildlife habitat, historic resources, recreational 

amenities, and areas important for watershed health.

Figure 3. Conservation priorities methodology (Computer Terrain Mapping 

and others 2004).
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 869

Development potential combines factors that constrain 

the “buildability” of a parcel. These constraints include 

steep slopes, geologic hazards, avalanche hazard, proximity to existing roads (to access a property), floodplains, 

environmental constraints and wildfire hazard.

Resource value and development potential are 

combined to form the landscape-based conservation 

priorities. These are areas with high conservation value 

that are likely to be developed based upon building 

constraints. At this point, development potential has 

not been restricted to private parcels. The results of the 

landscape-based analysis are combined with the private 

land ownership pattern to produce the overall conservation priorities.

There are advantages to decoupling the landscapebased computations from the human imposed land 

ownership pattern. First, the digital representation of a 

parcel’s location may involve considerable uncertainty. 

If this digital representation shifts due to a more accurate set of locational parameters, the parcel’s value 

and priority status can easily be recalculated. Another 

advantage allows public agencies to assess the conservation priority of a potential trade parcel that is currently in 

public ownership. If only private parcels are evaluated, 

then a separate analytical exercise would need to occur 

to similarly assess the conservation value of a potential 

publicly-owned trade parcel.

Challenges

This prioritization process provides a useful framework for evaluating and ranking parcels for land 

conservation purposes. However, a variety of factors 

present challenges in the data acquisition, analysis and 

interpretation stages. Familiar issues such as spatial accuracy and data completeness tend to be amplified in 

these more remote regions.

Many of the surveys for patented mining claims are 

over 100 years old and some reference locational monuments that have been destroyed. Wherever possible, GPS 

coordinates for locational monuments were utilized for 

locating parcels from mineral survey plats and “rubbersheeting” surrounding claims.

Our analyses show a positive conservation bias toward 

roads – a somewhat unexpected result. Roads are viewed 

as a conservation positive in the recreational access they 

provide. Since roadways were the viewing platforms for 

the visual analysis, areas proximal to these roadways 

were more likely to be visible and thus have a higher 

visual resource value. Finally, close proximity to access 

roads increases development potential and consequently 

raises the conservation priority value for a parcel. Areas 

farther from roads tend to be less disturbed and have 

higher ecological value, however. This may be indirectly 

included in the analysis in the form of potential conservation areas and other areas of high natural values. In future 

projects it may be worthwhile considering “unroaded” 

areas as conservation resources.

Establishing a reasonable context for point data continues to be a struggle. Among project stakeholders, historic 

resources were considered to be at or near the top of the 

list in importance. Our source data consisted of individual 

sites or points. Determining an appropriate spatial context 

for a historic site, which could be translated into a buffer around the point data, is a problem that we have not 

adequately solved. BLM and USFS regulations typically 

forbid camping within a 50 to 100 ft buffer from the site, 

but a site’s visual context may extend for hundreds of 

feet. So, for example, a parcel containing a significant 

historic structure may be conserved, but residential development on an adjacent parcel could greatly impact a 

visitor’s experience.

Finally, some areas that are considered to be of great 

importance by stakeholders just don’t show up as significant in the analysis. Whether this is due to inaccurate or 

incomplete source data, flaws in the modeling process, 

or the overall subjectiveness of the values that we’re 

attempting to model, it’s important to ultimately rely on 

“carbon-based” (rather than “silicon-based”) thinking.

Internet Applications

The land managers, local governments, and conservation workers who are the ultimate users of the analytical 

results of these projects are located in dispersed sites, 

often in rural locales. Access to GIS capabilities and 

expertise vary widely among the different user groups. 

These reasons, together with the ubiquitous presence of 

the World Wide Web, make the internet a highly desirable venue for distributing data and capabilities. Both 

the northern San Juan projects made web-based mapping 

and geospatial applications an important task within the 

overall work scope.

A number of precepts guided development and component integration for the web-based applications:

Minimal client-side software and hardware should be 

required. The current applications require only web 

browser software (with free plug-ins) and an internet 

connection.

Most data and applications will reside on the server 

side of the connection. This will insure that users access the most current datasets available.

•

•
870 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Applications should be geared toward non-expert GIS 

users, but additional capabilities should be available 

for those with the expertise.

Capabilities should be customized for land conservation / land management uses.

The applications should be built primarily on open 

source components. Where in-house, proprietary 

components are used, they should be OGC-compliant 

to enable easy integration of future application and 

extensions.

Because of the sensitive nature of some of the data and 

results, access to the applications should be password 

protected. Some real estate speculators in the area 

specialize in selling inholdings to the federal government; discouraging this type of use was important 

among project stakeholders.

The resulting systems enable the user to perform a 

variety of GIS-based functions including basic raster 

and vector mapping capabilities, database querying, 

display of results in map or report form, polygon or 

point based raster queries (raster values that occur 

within a polygon or at a point), viewshed analysis and 

point-to-point line-of-sight analysis.

More advanced users develop conservation scenarios 

highlighting different resources and parcel selections. 

For example, a scenario could be developed highlighting 

the top 50 parcels based on visual resource value within 

BLM-managed lands. Just a few years ago, these types 

of capabilities were restricted to the realm of the “white 

lab coat” crowd.

Conclusions

The conservation priorities methodology provides land 

managers and conservation workers with a GIS-based 

guide to ranking private parcels for varying acquisition 

•

•

•

•

•

or management scenarios in inholding-riddled public 

lands. This process takes into account (1) an estimate 

of the occurrence of conservation resources within a 

parcel and (2) an estimate of the development potential 

of the parcel.

Web-based technologies, requiring minimal client-side 

investment in hardware and software, are delivering on the 

promise of putting the analytical power of geographic information systems into the hands of non-expert workers.

References

Clifford, Hal. 2003. Laying claim to Red Mountain. The 

Trust for Public Land, Publications: http://www.tpl.org/

tier3_cd.cfm?content_item_id=11651&folder_id=2366

Colorado Division of Wildlife. Natural Diversity Information 

System, conservation planning page. http://ndis.nrel.

colostate.edu/conservation.asp

Computer Terrain Mapping, Inc., Cloudshadow Consulting 

and Spike Productions. 2004. San Juan Skyway, Spatial 

Analysis and Mapping final report.

HYPERLINK http://w/”HYPERLINK http://w/ Greenhill, 

Jim. 2002. Red Mountain heritage bulldozed. Durango 

Herald, September 1

Larison, J.R., G.E. Likens, J.W. Fitzpatrick & J.G. Crock. 2000. 

Cadmium toxicity among wildlife in the Colorado Rocky 

Mountains. Nature Vol. 406.

Robinson, R. and S. Odell. 2002. Upper Animas River 

Watershed, project descriptions for Elk Tunnel, Forest 

Queen, Joe & John, Lackawanna, and Lark. HYPERLINK 

http://www.co.blm.gov/mines/upperaniproj/upaniprojdesc.

htm”ttp://www.co.blm.gov/mines/upperaniproj/upaniprojdesc.htm.

The Wilderness Society. 2000. Economic profiles for 

Colorado counties, Ouray County. HYPERLINK 

http://www.wilderness.org/Library/Documents/upload/

EconProfile-CO-Ouray-County.pdf”http://www.wilderness.

org/Library/Documents/upload/EconProfile-CO-OurayCounty.pdf.

U.S. Census Bureau. 2000. Colorado QuickFacts. HYPERLINK 

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/08000.html”http://

quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/08000.html.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 871

Introduction

Spatial modeling of airborne contaminants on soils 

is an approach capable of identifying woody species 

with potential capability for remediation and reclaiming. 

There are two direct benefits from this type of result, a) 

assess the soil health condition, and b) identify native 

species suitable for clean up.

In the Mexican scene, 21 out of 32 states comprises 

166 illegal toxic dump sites abandoned. An assessment 

in 1995-1997 reported: heavy metals, dust, smelter 

residues (scum), mining debris, oils, hydrocarbons, organoclorides, muds, Pb, cadmium, niquel, cianure, silic 

sand (EMA 1999). Consider in addition that industry 

continuously disposes this and other contaminants.

Nowadays there is a recent body of regulatory legislation concerning toxic emissions into the atmosphere, and 

heavy metals are a matter of concern in this regard. Tools 

to locate and spatially analyze hot spots are therefore 

urgently needed. Screening up locations where contaminants represent a hazard to population is an activity 

of major priority. In a similar fashion, modeling the 

fallout patterns creates the opportunity to detect species 

with potential capability to accumulate these metallic 

contaminants. 

The municipality of Veracruz (latitude 19o 16 ́ y 19o 

06 ́ N, longitude 96o 07 ́ y 96o 20 ́ W) includes the city 

of Veracruz (pop. 457 377), and a considerable industrial 

infrastructure including the Port of Veracruz, and Bruno 

Pagliai industrial park (FIBP), (INEGI 2000).

Spatial Modeling of Industrial Windfall on Soils to Detect 

Woody Species with Potential for Bioremediation

S. Salazar, Colegio de Postgraduados, Campus Veracruz, Carretera Federal Veracruz-Xalapa 

km 26.5. Mpio. Manlio Fabio Altamirano, Veracruz, C. P. 91690

M. Mendoza, FIPRODEFO, Jalisco, México, A. L. del Angel Perez, Instituto Nacional de 

Investigaciones Agropecuarias, Campo Cotaxtla, Veracruz, Ver.

A. Tejeda M, Facultad de Ciencias Atmosféricas, Universidad Veracruzana. Xalapa, Ver. 

México

Abstract—A spatial model is presented to explain the concentration of heavy metals 

(Fe, Cu, Zn, Ni, Cr, Co and Pb), in the soils around the industrial complex near the Port 

of Veracruz, Mexico. Unexpected low concentration sites where then tested to detect 

woody plant species that may have the capability to hiperacumulate these contaminants, 

hence having a potential for dendroremediation.

The study case circumstances are conducive to test this hypothesis because of the radial 

nature of the industrial sprawl, and the rural surroundings, where low presence of heavy 

metals is expected. Contaminants selected are common in the sort of industrial outfits 

in the region, most of which are involved in metal manufacturing. 

Results show levels of Cu, Zn, Cr, Co, and Pb in soils exceeding the reference threshold 

concentration in a fanshaped pattern downwind, with peak values for Fe. At least four 

species had no damage symptoms: guácimo, Guazuma ulmifolia; roble, Tadelobuia 

pentaphylla L., cocuite, Gliricidia sepium and palo mulato, Bursela simaruba L. This 

suggests these materials are resistant to metal pollution at the concentration levels seen 

in the region.

Analysis of woody and bark tissue is underway, and it is expected to confirm the potential 

of the four species as pollutant accumulators suitable for bioremediation. If such were 

the case, they should they be propagated and placed all through out the downwind 

side of the industrial complex in a large scale trial. The up wind concentrations were 

not a concern from the point of view of environmental regulations, and the effect of accumulator species already present resulted not statistically significant, except cocuite.
872 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Climate in the study region is tropical semidry, with 

summer rains. Weather is strongly influenced by trade 

winds. Natural vegetation cover in Veracruz has declined 

historically, temperate forests dropped from 18 percent 

to 4 percent, and tropical forests from 66 percent to 24 

percent, in the 1800 to 1900 time span (INEGI 2000). 

The main cover type is low tropical forest, which involves wooded areas of up to 15 m in height, growing 

in a climate with 25.3 oC mean temperature, and 1669.2 

mm annual rainfall (SEFIPLAN 2002). This vegetation 

responds to xeric site conditions imposed by the sandy, 

poorly developed soils usually found in coastal dunes 

such as in the study region. Local species are well adapted 

to these environments produced by the fast drainage, 

occasional gusty winds, heavy showers, and high salt 

content in the water. 

This research has an appeal and relevance given by the 

evolving conditions of reduced tree cover, loss of natural 

landscape, increasing population and industrial development, and rising emission levels (EMV 1998).

Materials and Methods

The study area is defined by a 5 km radius centered at 

FIBP, at 16 km west from the city and port of Veracruz. 

FIBP began with the first facility, Tenaris Tamsa, opening in 1958. Tenaris is a steel mill and pipe manufacturer 

that is the largest (185 ha) and dominant tenant in the 

park. Today there are 157 industrial outfits in FIBP, 48 

of them are metal-mechanic manufacturers, and 44 are 

chemical industries. Other businesses in FIBP involve 

food and beverages, electric and electronic components, 

glass, construction materials, and some other products 

(CFBP 2002).

The federal highway Veracruz-Jalapa divides by half 

the study area. This road is used by over 2000 vehicles, 

many of which are heavy trucks.

Industrial facilities are surrounded by farms with 

cropping and grazing plots, though these activities 

are declining because of new housing developments. 

The largest of these housing projects is Valente Díaz 

(pop. 13765), which is the second largest population in 

Veracruz municipality, just surpassed by Veracruz city 

itself. One more factor of relevance for Valente Díaz is 

that it borders with the Tenaris steel mill (SEFIPLAN 

2002).

A network of sampling points were subjectively chosen to supply information from different distances and 

orientation respect the center point of the study area. 

Sampling points necessarily must be near a native tree 

of sufficient age as to expect to have received the effect 

of pollutants and reacted to it. From this tree, a sample 

of bark and wood was taken at 1.3 m in heigth. Two soil 

samples from the tree crown cover area were also taken, 

one at 10 cm in depth, and another one at 20 cm. For each 

soil sample, total concentration of Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Ni, 

Cr, Co, Cd, Pb, and extractable concentration of Fe, Cu, 

Zn and Mn were determined with procedures indicated 

in the official Mexican norm about sampling and analysis 

of soils NOM-021-RECNAT-2000 (SEMARNAT 2002). 

Tissue analysis was done through atomic absorption using a solution of ashes from tissue sample incinerated 

at 550 oC.

Complementary soil data sought included pH, electric 

conductivity, cation exchange capacity organic mater, 

total nitrogen, assimilable phosphorous, exchangeable 

bases, and texture.

Climate data was provided by Centro de Previsión del 

Golfo de México. Wind speed and direction, temperature, 

relative humidity, global solar radiation, cloud cover, and 

barometric pressure were variables selected to model 

atmospheric dispersal. The local cartography was digitized, and fed to software Archie (FEMA/USEPA 1993), 

and Surfer (Golden Software, Inc). Isoconcentration 

digital maps for each contaminant were produced with 

the ground and atmosphere modeled features, plus contaminant values recorded in field samples of soil, bark 

and wood. Scenarios of interest to model included:

the annual cycle, represented by weather and contaminant fallout patterns in January, April, July, and 

October (featuring seasonal conditions for winter, 

spring, summer, and fall), gusty wind days (synoptic 

weather systems from higher latitudes descending 

on to the tropics; also, stormy conditions associated 

to anticyclonic circulation producing winds over 30 

m s-1)

steady days with high temperature (maximum hourly 

temperatures each month)

Results

Soils presented an average pH of 5.95 at the 0-10 cm 

depth, and 5.79 at 10-20 cm (±0.69 and ±0.79 standard 

deviation, respectively). Mean electric conductivity was 

0.142 dS.m-1, a value within acceptable range (United 

States Salinity Laboratory of Riverside, USA). Organic 

mater contents in the soil was >3.01 percent at 10-20 

cm deep, and still very high at 2.01 percent to 3.0 percent in the top layer, at 0 cm to10 cm. Soils were coarse 

in texture, ranging from sandy loam to loamy sand. 

Exchangeable cations were also high, ranking Ca >Mg 

>K>Na.

Soil total heavy metals (Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Ni, Cr, Co, 

Pb), resulted over the reference tolerance (table 1). Of 

•

•
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 873

particular concer was total and extractable Fe, where 

records show elevated concentrations >25.0 mg.kg-1, 

while Cu averaged a high >1.2 mg.kg-1, Zn was also 

beyond toxic levels (>8.0 mg.kg-1), and so was Mn too 

(>29 mg.kg-1)

A total of 13 tree species were tested (table 2).

Concentrations of Fe, Cu, Zn, Mn, Ni, Cr, Co, and Pb 

in bark and wood tissues are presented at table 3.

Cu bioacumulation index by species was oustanding, 

and statistically significant for cocuite (Gliricidia sepium) 

and roble (Tadelobuia pentaphylla L). Three other species 

also displayed a satisfactory bioacumulation potential 

(index>1).

Discussion

This first evaluation assessed heavy metals in the study 

area soils. The key finding is the expected behavior of 

sandy and loamy soils. Coarse soils like these have a low 

retention of heavy metals. Therefore, these contaminants 

seep through down into the water table. The ample empty 

spaces inside sandy soils provide fast movement of air 

and water, and therefore, quick movement of metals carried as particles or dissolved.

Now considering the current trend towards industrial 

and housing development in the region, significant increase of paved ground and artificial structures (houses, 

buildings), will make contaminant drift even faster. In 

this scenario, current environmental regulations might be 

excessively lenient in protecting public health.

Should any of the species studied turn out as good 

bioaccumulators, they could be a valuable means to 

clean up medium level brown soils. Moreover, the spatial 

model used to identify bioaccumulators is also capable of 

identify priority areas to be forested with those species 

found, and the minimum and maximum area and planting 

density can be calculated too.

Table 1. Average of total heavy metals in soils 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, mg.kg-1 (dry weight).

0-10cm 10-20cm

Fe This study This study (1) (2) (3) (4)

average 45372.9 40411.7 - - - -

range 17520-161590 20740-116550

Cu

average 67.3 78.87 100 60 26 100

range 9.7-468.8 11-437.5

Zn

average 193.8 163.7 400 70 73.5 300

range 39-1550 38-1240

Mn

average 1036 957.5 1500 3000 490 -

range 374-3950 298-3831.5

Ni

average 42.9 43.16 100 - 18.5 100

range 20-234 20-204.8

Cr

average 112.3 105.7 75 - 50 100

range 18-675 18-675

Co

average 35.3 35.3 25 30 10.5 -

range 31.7-63.5 31.7-63.5

Cd

average 2 - 8 - - 5

range 0-2 -

Pb

average 105.2 111.9 200 - 26 100

range 26-250 20-440

Table 2. Trees sampled in the study site. FIBP, Veracruz, 

Mexico.

Nombre común	 Nombre científico*

Almendro Terminalia catappa L.

Cedro Cedrela odorata

Cocuite Gliricidia sepium

Ciruelo Spondias mombin L.

Flamboyán Delenox regia

Guácimo Guazuma ulmifolia

Higuera Ficus carica

Mulato Bursela simaruba L.

Jobo Spondias purpureas

Nacastle Enterolobium cyclocarpum

Palo dulce Achatacarpus nigricans

Roble Tadelobuia pentaphylla L.

Uvero Coccoloba barbadensis

(Martínez 1994)
874 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

References

CFBP 2002. Censo del Fideicomiso Industrial Bruno Pagliai, 

2002.

EMA, 1999,. Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e 

Informática. Estadísticas del Medio Ambiente. Tomo II. 

México.

EMV, 1998. Enciclopedia Municipal Veracruzana, Veracruz. 

Gobierno del Estado de Veracruz. Secretaría Técnica. 

39-40 p.

FEMA/USEPA, 1993. Automated Resource for Chemical 

Hazard Incident Evaluation (ARCHIE) Federal Emergency 

Management Agency/United States Environmental 

Protection. Risk Managent Program.

INEGI, 2000. Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e 

Informática, Municipio de Veracruz.

Kabata-Pendias, A, and H. Pendias. 1992. Trace Elements 

in Soils and Plants. CRC Press, Inc. Boca Raton. Florida. 

11-55p.

Kovalskiy, V.V. 1974. Geochemical environment, health and 

diseases, in Trace Subst. Environ. Health, Vol. 8, Hemphill, 

D.D., Ed., University of Missouri, Columbia, Mo. 137p.

Linzon, S.N., 1978. Phytotoxicology Excessive Levels for 

Contaminants in Soil and Vegetation, report of Ministry of 

the Environment, Ontario, Canada, 1978.

Martínez, M. 1994 .catalogo de nombres vulgares y científicos 

de plantas mexicanas. Fondo de Cultura económico. 

1248 p.

SEFIPLAN, 2002. Secretaría de Finanzas y Planeación del 

Gobierno del Estado de Veracruz.

SEMARNAT, 2002. Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos 

Naturales, Norma Oficial Mexicana NOM-021-RECNAT2000, Fertilidad, salinidad y clasificación de suelos. 

Estudios, muestreo y análisis

(1) Linzon, 1978 

(2) Kovalskiy, 1974

(3) USEPA, 1995

(4) Kabata-Pendias and Pendias, 1984.

Table 3. Heavy metals in bark and wood, study site, Veracruz, México. mg.kg-1 (dry weight).

Bark Wood

Fe Cu Zn Mn Ni Cr Co Pb Fe Cu Zn Mn

Roble 407 28.7 26 56.9 5.9 11.3 7.8 36.8 6.25 8.68 98.7

Cocuite 329 37.5 31 23.7 9   358 6.2 23.7

Jobo 486 18.8 31 134 5.9 18 6.35 5.2 329 18.6 7.9

Ciruelo 408 28.1 31 79 5.9 13.5 5.2 53.6 6.25 6.2

Nacastle 677 12.5 24.8 120 5.9 18 5.69 52.7 6.25 18.6 43.15

Nopillo 475 24.2 29.5 89.2 5.9 14.6 6.35 5.36 198 6.25 12.4 24.92

Mulato 511 20.9 29.1 106 5.9 16 5.36 158 6.25 13.95 25.32

Almendro 207 18.8 24.8 39.5 5.9 13.5   5.2 28.6 6.25 12.4

Palo Dulce 129 12.5 49.6 15.8 5.9   5.2 50.1 12.4

Guácimo 168 15.6 37.2 27.7 5.9 5.2 39.3 6.25 12.4 38.4

Uvero 54.7 6.25 12.8 82.4   34.2 6.25 8.4 53.7

Cedro 78.7 6.25 12.4 92.4 48.2 6.25 12.4 68.6

Higuera 68.5 6.25 12.8 79.8 36.2 6.25 8.78 58.4

Flamboyán 67.3 6.25 12.7 84.9 5.5 39.5 6.25 9.86 60.23
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 875

Introduction

The Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program of 

the USDA Forest Service has been collecting forest inventory data since 1930. Database structure and inventory 

design have evolved over time to satisfy user demand. 

The most recent revision of the FIA database (FIADB) 

has created new ecological variables and changed the 

definition of others. The sheer size of the FIADB can be 

intimidating to some users, and the database structure can 

confuse others. Readily accessible, easy to use tools are 

necessary to ensure proper analysis of FIA data.

FIA data is periodically analyzed by the Forest Service 

and published for the public as a standard suite of tables 

for a state or region. With the adoption of the annual 

inventory system, published reports are produced on 

a 5 year period. The length of this period may not be 

adequate for users who require more timely reports or 

are interested in a spatial scale different than the state or 

region level. These users must download data, replicate 

the relational database then correctly query and summarize the data. Not all users with these data needs are 

willing to invest this amount of effort.

Internet based FIA analysis tools bridge the gap between periodic state level reports and customized analysis 

by the user. Without understanding underlying database 

structure, users can tailor their analysis by choosing a 

certain area and selecting specific variables. Internetbased tools correctly analyze the data regardless of the 

current state of the database. FIA’s MapMaker is the 

Forest Service’s official web-based analysis tool which 

utilizes standardized FIA analysis algorithms. Other 

online tools are available.

The Southern On Line Estimator1 (SOLE http://ncasi.

uml.edu/SOLE) has been cooperatively developed by the 

Forest Service and NCASI. It is a web-based annual FIA 

data analysis tool that uses a JAVA-based user interface 

and an R-based analysis engine. The user selects an area 

and variables of interest, and analysis output comes in 

the form of tables, charts, maps, and PDF files.

Background

SOLE Structure Overview

SOLE’s structure has been developed with flexibility 

as the top priority. Each of the three main components of 

the program (data retrieval, statistical analysis, and output) have been developed to be independently modified. 

This open architecture facilitates outside development of 

analysis algorithms.

The user can specify a geographical region of interest and initiate a query by sequentially selecting tabs 

at the top of the interface. After choosing states in the 

State Selection window, the user progresses through 

the SOLE Map, Variable Selection, Filters (optional), 

Analysis and/or Mapping tabs. Once the user satisfies 

the requirements of each tab, SOLE makes the next tab 

available. Detailed instructions can be found in the help 

files linked to each tab.

On-Line Analysis of Southern FIA Data

Michael P. Spinney, Quantitative Forestry Analyst, and Paul C. Van Deusen, Principal 

Research Scientist, National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, Lowell, MA

Francis A. Roesch, Mathematical Statistician, USDA Forest Service, Southern Research 

Station, Asheville, NC

Abstract—The Southern On-Line Estimator (SOLE) is a web-based FIA database analysis 

tool designed with an emphasis on modularity. The Java-based user interface is simple 

and intuitive to use and the R-based analysis engine is fast and stable. Each component of the program (data retrieval, statistical analysis and output) can be individually 

modified to accommodate major additions or changes. This modular structure fosters 

a flexible architecture to encourage outside development of analysis algorithms. SOLE 

produces statistical tables, figures, maps, and PDF reports based on user selected area 

and variables.
876 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Using the Program

State Selection

The first window a user sees is the State Selection 

screen. States with annual data have black backgrounds, 

and states with periodic data (currently not available for 

analysis in SOLE) are gray. When a state is selected, the 

state name pops up and the state is highlighted green. 

When the user is satisfied with their state choices, they 

click the bottom of window and are brought to the SOLE 

Map tab.

SOLE Map

Here the user selects the counties they wish to work 

with (fig. 1). Individual counties can be chosen with the 

Select by County button, or select all counties in the state 

using the Select All Counties button. Clicking on the red 

Retrieve Data button loads the necessary data files into the 

statistical program, R (R Development Core Team 2003). 

Once the data files have been loaded, the next group of 

tabs, Variable Selection and Filters are made available.

Variable Selection

Currently, only FIADB volume variables are available for analysis. These are grouped in two ways. The 

first is Quantitative (continuous data, for example, any 

volume/biomass estimate) or Qualitative (categorical 

data, such as productivity class). In addition, Quantitative 

variables are grouped based on diameter greater or less 

than 5 inches. This preserves the precision of volume 

estimates by ensuring that no trees less than 5 inches 

d.b.h. are included in sawtimber estimates (fig. 2). For 

all analyses, one Quantitative and one Qualitative variable are required. Tabular analyses will examine one 

Quantitative and several Qualitative variables.

Filters

This tab is optional, but can be useful to select only a 

specific subset of data. Data availability varies by state, 

so we recommend determining the range of values for 

an analyses before setting filters. The status of a filter is 

displayed at the top of an analysis.

Analysis

Charts and tabular analyses are launched from this tab 

(fig. 3). The header of each analysis indicates which filters 

(if any) were used, the analysis and variable names.

Tabular analysis

There are currently two methods in SOLE for determining the mean: moving average and mixed estimators. 

The 5-year moving average (MA) is the default estimation method for FIA analysis; it provides a complete 

estimate for that 5-year period. A moving average analysis will result in the following seven tables:

Moving average (per acre), over measurement year 

or by cycle.

Standard error of each element of table 1.

Area (acres) represented by the plots used in the calculation of table 1. Summarizes EXPCURR.

1.

2.

3.

Figure 1. SOLE map tab, for county selection and data retrieval.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 877

Total estimate for the area sampled. Equals moving 

average multiplied by area.

Standard error of the total estimate.

Total number of plots used in calculation, broken down 

by each level of the Qualitative Variable.

Number of plots by measurement year.

The MA provides a complete estimate for each 

specific 5-year period. Using the MA as the standard 

estimate, change can be determined after a second MA 

can be calculated, in year 6. In this case the data from 

panel 1, measured in year 1, is dropped from the estimator, and the data from panel 1, measured in year 6, 

4.

5.

6.

7.

is added. Eighty percent of the data is common to the 

two consecutive MA estimates. Therefore, if the user 

wanted to compare estimates for two consecutive years, 

only 20 percent of the data would not be self-canceling 

(Van Deusen 2000). After 10 years, both the MA and 

mixed estimator (ME) can provide full-data change 

estimates, however, it is not obvious to which years the 

MA difference estimator should be applied. Conversely, 

the alternative method of mixed estimation incorporates 

an explicit trend model while using 100 percent of plots 

to determine change between any 2 years in the most 

efficient manner.

Figure 3. SOLE analysis selection tab.

Figure 2. SOLE variable selection tab.
878 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The mixed estimator analysis results in six tables that 

have measurement year as columns:

Mixed estimator mean by year (per acre)

Standard error per year

Acres

Total estimate for the sampled area

Standard error or the total

Adjusted sample size by year

Graphical analysis

Often the simplest way to visualize data characteristics is through a graph-based analysis. SOLE offers 

bar charts, box plots, pie charts, and XY plots. Bar and 

pie charts show a basic distribution of the Quantitative 

Variable by each level of the Qualitative Variable. XY 

plots offer some insight into the data distribution and 

frequency based on the number and dispersion of points 

along the axis. Box plots convey the most statistical information about the data because they show the 

mean, interquartile range, and outliers for each level of 

Qualitative Variable.

Map analysis

County-level maps can be created from the Mapping 

tab. Basic maps of the mean and median are supplemented by more complex ratio maps, which display the 

ratio of filtered to unfiltered data. For example, the user 

could filter for a specific ownership group and then view 

a map of the proportion of volume on land owned by 

that group to the volume on all land collectively owned 

by all groups.

PDF report

Any combination of tabular, graphical or map analyses; or text can be included in the PDF report. At the 

simplest level, the report could be completely contained 

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

such that the user only selects an area of interest, or it 

could be customized with the user’s choice of variables. 

Potentially, this feature could be developed to produce 

an array of standard FIA report tables at the click of a 

button, giving the user the ability to produce real-time 

reports at each FIADB17 update.

Conclusions

Web based FIA analysis tools are essential for proper 

analysis of FIA data. SOLE provides a simple interface 

to allow users of all levels to obtain custom analytical 

results. The SOLE graphical user interface (GUI) is 

written in Java, and the analytical components are written in the S programming language as implemented in 

the OpenSource R statistical analysis program. SOLE 

is written in a modular fashion that makes it easy to add 

new capabilities. SOLE provides a wide range of options 

for users who wish to analyze FIA annual inventory data 

and obtain graphical and tabular results. Flexibility in 

each component of SOLE ensures that it remains highly 

adaptable to changes in both database structure and user 

needs.

References

R Development Core Team (2003). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical 

Computing, Vienna, Austria. ISBN 3-900051-00-3, URL 

http://www.R-project.org.

Van Deusen, P.C. 2000. Alternatives to the Moving Average. 

In: Reams, Gregory A.; McRoberts, Ronald E.; Van Deusen, 

Paul C., eds. 2001. Proceedings of the second annual Forest 

Inventory and Analysis symposium; 2000 October 17-18; 

Salt Lake City, UT. Gen. Tech. Rep. SRS-47. Asheville, NC: 

U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Southern 

Research Station. pp. 90-93.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 879

Introduction

Analyzing the dispersion of many cotton insect 

pests in large commercial cotton fields is a challenging 

problem in applied ecology. Pest dispersion impacts 

sampling (Davis 1994; Trumble 1985), analysis of 

population ecology (Banerjee 1976; Dalthorp and others 

2000; Fleischer and others 1999), the establishment of 

economic thresholds or injury levels (Byerly and others 

1978; Stern and others 1959; Wilson 1994), the rate of 

habitat colonization (Southwood and others 1983), and 

the building of spatially-based prescriptions (Dupont 

and others 2000; Fleischer and others 1999; Seal and 

others 2001) to control cotton pests. The need to create 

efficient maps describing cotton pest dispersion patterns 

in commercial cotton fields provided the motivation for 

this study.

A simulation approach was stressed to avoid effects 

due to discrepancies in observer abilities, sampling error, 

management practices, location effects, or lack of enough 

sample time, all of which arise in field conditions and 

influence conclusions. Simulation methods to investigate 

relationships among sample unit size, clustering and 

infestation rate have already been described (Willers 

and others 1990). These initial results are built upon in 

this work, where simulation methods now explore the 

relationship between infestation rate and measures of 

dispersion for sample units of different sizes if pests are 

randomly dispersed. Knowledge of these relationships is 

necessary in order to employ (Willers and others 1999) 

remote sensing to stratify cotton fields into various 

habitats according to the phenology of the crop. Willers 

and others (1999) have previously found that tarnished 

plant bugs (TPB; Lygus lineolaris [P. de B.] (Heteroptera: 

Miridae)) distribute themselves at different infestation 

rates in these habitats. Information about how dispersion patterns relate to sample unit size, pest density, and 

habitat quality therefore creates the foundation for spatial 

approaches toward cotton insect control. These simulation results are applicable to the tarnished plant bug. 

Results are relevant to field data and can apply to other 

pest species (Willers, unpublished), particularly for pests 

that attack the floral structures of the cotton plant.

The various methods utilized in the analysis of 

spatial patterns have been presented by Dalthorp and 

others (2000), Davis (1994), Kuno (1991), Ludwig 

and Reynolds (1988), Patil and Stiteler (1974), Pielou, 

(1977, 1978), Southwood (1978), Taylor (1984) and 

Waters (1959). The analysis approach employed here 

does not follow the traditional testing of the goodness 

of fit of sample data to expected frequencies estimated 

from the Poisson, or any other probability distribution (Davis 1994; Ludwig and Reynolds 1988; Poole 

1974; Steel and Torrie 1960). The reason for choosing 

Remote Sensing, Sampling and Simulation Applications in 

Analyses of Insect Dispersion and Abundance in Cotton

J. L. Willers, Research Entomologist, J. M. McKinion, Electronics Engineer, and J. N. Jenkins, 

Geneticist, USDA-ARS Genetics and Precision Agriculture Research Unit, Mississippi State, 

MS

Abstract—Simulation was employed to create stratified simple random samples of 

different sample unit sizes to represent tarnished plant bug abundance at different 

densities within various habitats of simulated cotton fields. These samples were used to 

investigate dispersion patterns of this cotton insect. It was found that the assessment of 

spatial pattern varied as a function of sample unit size and was independent of large pest 

densities. Using this knowledge, it was demonstrated how remote sensing assists field 

scouts in estimating pest abundance and the pattern of dispersion within commercial 

cotton fields. For the majority of pest management decisions in commercial fields, both 

the simulation data and field results supported the robust assumption that cotton pests 

are randomly dispersed at different densities within homogenous habitats. Therefore, it 

was possible to estimate the boundaries of different pest densities by mapping habitat 

variability within cotton fields using high resolution, geo-referenced, remotely sensed 

imagery. Once boundaries for various densities of the pest were established, site-specific 

prescriptions of pesticides were implemented, reducing pest management costs and 

the amount of pesticide applied to the environment.
880 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

to not use this classical approach was the deliberate 

choice to study estimator performance and assessment 

of dispersion when the sample size is usually small (< 

30 sample units/sample). The goodness of fit test does 

not apply when sample size is small. Therefore, use is 

made of Lloyd’s mean crowding and patchiness indices (Lloyd 1967) to test for random dispersion. Also, 

choices for sample unit size are known to influence 

the assessment of dispersion, particularly when artificial (as opposed to natural (see Ludwig and Reynolds 

1988)) units are employed (Davis 1994; Ludwig and 

Reynolds 1988; Pielou 1977, 1978; Poole 1974). The 

indices developed by Lloyd (1967) are not influenced 

by sample unit size.

The information discovered through use of simulation 

was used to assess pest dispersion in large commercial 

cotton fields during the production season.

Methods and Materials

The sample design used in the simulations has been 

previously described (Willers and others 1999; Willers 

and Akins 2000) and a sensitivity analysis has been presented in Willers and others (2000). However, several 

points must be recalled from these previous studies. The 

first is that the fundamental sample unit size is a quadrat 

(cell) with a length of 0.9144 m and a width equal to half 

the row spacing (commonly, 1.016 m) between rows of 

cotton. Therefore, 0.404 ha (or 1 land ac) of field area 

will contain 4,359.526 units of this size (at 0.9290 m2

each). These units provide the main link between the 

simulated system and field conditions. Specifically, the 

total number of these units (or small areas centered upon 

the crop row) in a cotton field is the finite population 

size (Thompson 1992) at risk to be sampled, and can 

be apportioned amongst one or more habitats (Willers, 

unpublished). Also, the individual pixel in a geo-registered, high spatial resolution (1 m2

), multi-spectral image 

of the field of interest conceptually corresponds to one 

of these quadrats.

The second point is that these quadrat sampling units 

can be arranged into a series of consecutive units to span 

the cotton rows at right angles to the row direction, and 

form a larger sampling unit called a belt transect (Ludwig 

and Reynolds 1988; Thompson 1992; Willers and others 

1999; Willers and Akins 2000). A single transect constitutes a sample and a diagram of a transect is provided 

in Willers and Akins (2000). In the field, the number of 

insects of a particular species are counted, along with 

ancillary data (such as the size or age of each individual 

observed), within each quadrat sample unit. The quadrat 

sample unit results are totaled for each transect sample. 

In the simulated system the model generates and tallies 

these counts.

The third point is that these transects (using a simple 

random sampling strategy) are placed at consultant/producer determined locations within habitats based upon 

maps derived by classified imagery (Richards and Jia 

1999; Willers and others 1999; Willers, unpublished) 

of the cotton field. In the simulated system, different 

habitats are modeled by changing the infestation rate 

parameter (see below).

Simulation Model Development and 

Assumptions

The development of the simulation model to study 

dispersion in the presence of different pest densities 

and sample unit sizes was based upon the negative 

binomial distribution (NBD) (Anscombe 1949; Davis 

1994; Ludwig and Reynolds 1988; Pielou 1977, 1978; 

Southwood 1978). Willers and others (1990) describe 

most modifications necessary to simulate impacts of 

different sample unit sizes, densities, and dispersion patterns using the NBD. Counts of numbers of insects per 

row for simulated belt transects of different lengths (L) 

and infestation rates (λ) were obtained using the NBD 

with its dispersion parameter (k) set to 50 so that random 

variates could be generated at different pest infestation 

rates and sample unit sizes, under the assumption of 

a Poisson (random) dispersion pattern. The simulated 

sample unit size for each quadrat (or crop row length) of 

the belt transect was fixed at 10 plants/quadrat (Willers 

and others 1990; Willers, unpublished). The number of 

insects (events) per quadrat for a belt transect of length 

L was generated by the inverse transformation method 

(Pritsker and Pegden 1979) and used to sample a simulated area of field having a particular mean infestation 

rate (or number of insects/100 plants, λ). To create transect lines of different lengths (or a sample unit of length 

L) a ‘do-loop’ was employed to repeat the process and 

simulate the sample results for a specified number of 

‘crop rows’. The simulation model was programmed in 

SAS (SAS Institute 1990).

The question in this study was to determine how assessment of dispersion differs with changes in (1) the pest 

density (infestation rate) and (2) the length of the primary 

sample unit within a cotton habitat class. Therefore, various lengths (L = 4, 8, 16, 24, or 396 rows) of belt transects 

were employed and the dispersion pattern of insect pests 

at different densities was investigated. Comparisons of 

simulated results with actual TPB counts were obtained 

by comparison with transect lines sampled in a commercial cotton field (Willers and others 1999; Willers, 

unpublished). This published data set can be examined 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 881

and compared to these simulated results (available online 

at http://www.jcotsci.org).

Analysis of Dispersion

Lloyd’s indices of patchiness and mean crowding 

(Lloyd 1967) judged performance of the random dispersion assumption for simulated combinations of different 

infestation rates (densities) and transect sample unit sizes. 

The index of patchiness is a measure of random dispersion when equivalent to unity (Davis 1994; Lloyd 1967; 

Southwood 1978). The index of mean crowding (Lloyd 

1967; Pielou 1977) is a description of the mean number of 

individuals occupying the same habitat space as another 

individual. In this study, this index applies to the quadrat 

sample unit and not the belt transect sample unit.

Results

The various combinations of pest density and transect length were studied using 10,000 simulation runs. 

Estimates of mean crowding and patchiness were 

obtained for each combination and summarized by histograms. Figs. 1 through 3 show results for estimates of 

Lloyd’s index of patchiness at several infestation rates 

and several different (short) transect lengths. Simulation 

results where the transect length is fixed for a long distance (396 crop rows) while varying the infestation rate 

(λ = 0.01, 0.08, 0.16, 0.24, and 0.40) are presented in 

figures 4 (mean crowding) and 5 (patchiness).

Analyses of Simulation Data Using 

Lloyd’s Indices

The index of patchiness is derived from the mean 

crowding index (Davis 1994; Lloyd 1967). This index 

indicates random dispersion for values equivalent to 1. 

Patterns of results are shown for λ = 0.01, 0.08 and 0.24 

(figs. 1 through 3). For brevity, only a few of the many 

possible graphs from simulation runs estimating dispersion statistics are shown. For patchiness, as belt transect 

length and infestation rate increased, the index decreases 

in multi-modality and increasingly centers about a modal 

value of 1. This index is sensitive to choices for sample 

unit size, but not to values for infestation rate, once the 

rate departs from small values close to zero. Despite this 

sensitivity, the convergence of results about a mode of 1 

supports the assumption that a random dispersion pattern is plausible for most densities estimated with a belt 

transect sampling technique. Consistency in estimating 

this index is most doubtful if too short of a transect was 

employed and the density was close to zero, which means 

that field samples would most likely be so variable as to 

obscure any discernment of relationships. Trends are most 

clear if very long transects are utilized; however, very long 

transects require too much time in commercial fields.

Analysis of Simulation Data Using A 

Long Transect

The pattern of response between pest density and very 

long transects is presented in figs. 4 and 5. While many 

lengths could be chosen, we selected one that was ca. 0.4 

km (0.25 mi) long. This distance is often encountered in 

large fields and within similar habitat classes of cotton 

growth and phenology as captured by remote sensing 

imagery.

The analysis of results at this large size (or distance) of 

sample unit reveals an interesting finding about increases 

in pest numbers per unit area. Mean crowding is a noisy 

parameter when belt transects increasingly shorter than 

24 rows are employed and lower infestation rates exist (data not presented). Mean crowding estimates for 

long transects (L = 396 rows), on the other hand, are 

well separated with increases in density (fig. 4). This 

result is reasonable and could be important for assisting 

the development of better logic for spatial simulation 

Figure 1. Histograms of results for Lloyd’s (1967) index of 

patchiness for 4 different transect lengths at a simulated 

infestation rate of 1 percent. The index has a value < 1 for 

regular dispersion patterns.
882 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

models of pest damage to cotton. Wagner and others 

(1996) reviewed many models of damage to plants by 

cotton pests. A flaw of many was the failure to correctly 

model pest damage at high densities. The mean crowding 

value could provide a metric to better allocate damage 

amongst groups of plants in simulation models, especially 

if spatial allocations of different pest densities (within an 

individual simulated field) were also incorporated.

For all densities, except λ = 0.01, the index of patchiness for the longest transect converged about a value of 

1 (an indicator of random dispersion) (fig. 5). The lack 

of stability at low densities (as shown in the top panel of 

fig. 5) was previously found by Byerly and others (1978; 

p. 262). The effect was attributed to the proportionately 

large effect that errors in estimating the standard error of 

a small mean could cause. Similar effects are likely to be 

at work for the index of patchiness when a short belt transect samples a habitat having a low pest population. The 

effect is particularly obvious when smaller lengths (recall 

figs. 1 through 3 and compare across increasing densities 

at similar transect lengths) are used to sample simulated 

populations in homogenous habitats. Furthermore, for 

low population densities there may not be enough 

individuals to occupy all available habitat spaces, which 

also would cause deviations from a random dispersion 

index of 1. However, the patchiness index is independent 

of density (fig. 4) once there is a departure from very low 

infestation rates (fig. 5) (Myers 1978).

The behavior of convergence about a patchiness of 1 

for large sample unit sizes (fig. 5) shows most clearly 

the validity of a random dispersion pattern over a large 

spatial extent (or distance), particularly for increases in 

infestation. While it is impractical to sample large sized 

sample units, it is practical to apply simple random 

sampling within homogenous habitat classes and select 

widely spaced sample sites. If the estimate of pest density 

is similar at the widely spaced sites within a habitat class, 

it is reasonable to infer that other unsampled locations 

between these sites are also infested at a similar rate. 

Therefore, a habitat classification map derived from 

imagery can effectively be used to estimate pest severity 

in commercial fields without large sample sizes, because 

the pest is most likely randomly dispersed throughout 

the habitat. Other works are in preparation to verify 

with field observations this conclusion derived by use 

of simulation.

Figure 2. Histograms of results for the index of patchiness 

for four different transect lengths at a simulated infestation 

rate of 8 percent. The index has a value > 1 for aggregated 

dispersion patterns.

Figure 3. Histograms of results for the index of patchiness for 

four different transect lengths at a simulated infestation rate 

of 24 percent. The index is equivalent to one for random 

dispersion patterns.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 883

Discussion

Stern and others (1959) first presented the concept of 

an economic threshold (ET), or economic injury level 

(EIL). They discussed several ecological concepts and 

considered the impact of changes in pest density in both 

space and time (Fleischer and others 1999). It is reasonable to consider that the ET and EIL strongly imply the 

presence of a consistent density on a spatial scale until an 

edge of a habitat class is encountered. Across this edge, 

the pest density will decrease or increase as the habitat 

and/or environmental conditions within these other additional regions vary. These effects will persist during a 

small increment of time so that management decisions 

can be made. Remote sensing can provide the delineation 

of edges of cotton habitats (Willers and others, 1999; 

Willers, unpublished). These technologies, along with 

the use of appropriate ecological assumptions combined 

with density estimates (with small sample sizes) and 

experience (Willers, unpublished), permit the building 

of plausible maps of pest density in cotton. The five key 

concepts driving the creation of these pest density maps 

are (1) the assumption of a random dispersion pattern 

amongst (2) small units of area for (3) characteristic 

densities occurring within (4) different habitats in cotton 

fields over (5) time.

Many investigators consider regular and random dispersion patterns to be rare in natural contexts (Dalthorp 

and others 2000; Ludwig and Reynolds 1988; Taylor 

1961; Wilson 1994). For insects that are distributed across 

natural units (Ludwig and Reynolds, 1988) such as a plant, 

a leaf, or a cotton bud (square, flower, or boll) one can 

easily envision (in fact, demonstrate) that an aggregated 

dispersion pattern is common. Using sample units that are 

small in size, we can, in these cases, agree with traditional 

thinking. In this study, a measure of dispersion examined 

the assumption that a random dispersion pattern could 

be assumed for many fruit feeding cotton insect pests 

when large arbitrary (rather than natural (Ludwig and 

Reynolds 1988)) sampling units are employed. Based 

upon the use of these practical, but arbitrary, sampling 

units, we disagree with traditional thinking that random 

dispersion patterns are rare. Furthermore, the conclusion 

of random dispersion found amongst belt transects should 

apply to other sampling techniques (for example, whole 

plant visual samples, drop cloth, or sweep net) provided 

that sample units are constructed to constitute more than 

a single plant. The intent should be to focus searching 

within ‘small’ sizes of area, rather than over a wide scatFigure 5. Histograms of results for the index of patchiness for 

five different simulated pest densities across a belt transect 

length of 396 crop rows.

Figure 4. Histograms of results for Lloyd’s (1976) mean 

crowding index for 5 different simulated pest densities where 

the belt transect length is 396 crop rows.
884 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

tering of individual plants across a large area or along 

a single, short length of row (Willers, unpublished) as 

traditionally done in cotton.

Several authors have used simulation as a tool to 

answer various questions about either aggregation or 

dispersion (Myers 1978; Pielou 1960; Sawyer 1989). 

The findings of this simulation study have also produced 

useful results. Obtaining a field data set as comprehensive 

as those obtained here by use of simulation would have 

been quite expensive. The customized form of the NBD 

that generated much of the data used in this study has 

been quite useful in cotton sampling research (Willers 

and others 1990, 1999; Willers and Akins 2000; Williams 

and others 1995). The results provided insight useful for 

the application of site-specific approaches to cotton insect 

control. The assumption that a random dispersion pattern 

occurs within large sized sample units (fig. 5) (also found 

by Sawyer (1989)) derived from a series of contiguous, 

secondary sample units placed in homogenous habitats 

has value. The finding can be exploited for (1) redefining 

economic injury levels (EILs), (2) simulating pest damage to the crop, or (3) refining sample design efficiency. 

All these goals have relevance for additional discoveries 

that provide decreases in sample size or sampling time in 

commercial cotton applications. In commercial applications, it is not possible to satisfy the sample number sizes 

often required by theory (Karandinos 1976); therefore, 

discovering new estimators accurate at low densities 

and small sample sizes is desirable. The utilization of 

information from remote sensing imagery along with 

the simulation and sampling methods described here 

can reduce sample time in commercial cotton fields. 

The same information provides the template for spatial 

applications of pesticides, reducing costs and providing 

environmental benefits (Dupont and others 2000; Frigden 

and others 2002; Seal and others 2001; see also www.

gointime.com).

Summary

The simulation analyses indicate that the assumption 

of random dispersion of a pest within crop habitats occupied at different characteristic densities is useful for 

commercial scouting and decision making purposes. 

The assumption strengthens continued use of simple 

random sampling (SRS) or line-intercept (LIS) estimators (Thompson 1992; Willers and others 1999; Willers 

and Akins 2000) for pest or plant densities within habitats. Boundaries (or edges) of different pest densities in 

commercial fields can be determined from appropriately 

classified (Richards and Jia 1999), high resolution, remotely sensed imagery to create a mosaic (Pielou 1977, 

1978) of habitat classes. The pest density estimate for 

a habitat stratum geographically applies to each class 

within the mosaic (whether sampled or not) if other 

conditions such as planting date or other agronomic 

influences are also similar.

Acknowledgments

We thank Drs. Eric Villavaso and Wes Burger as 

reviewers for their comments of the initial draft. The 

Advanced Spatial Technologies for Agriculture Program 

of Mississippi State University has partially provided 

funds for the work described. The assistance of Mr. 

Kenneth Hood, Mr. John Freeman, Mr. John Bassie, Sr., 

and Mr. M. Doug Cauthen and other staff of Perthshire 

Farms, Gunnison, MS, is also appreciated.

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Global Cooperation and 

Security
888 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Within the Federal government, many agencies are 

developing, expanding and configuring their geospatial 

databases to facilitate data exchange and interoperability. These actions are in line with Federal Executive 

Order 12906 (Clinton, 1994. Amended by Bush, 2003) 

which calls for the establishment of the National Spatial 

Data Infrastructure (NSDI). The NSDI is defined as the 

technologies, policies, and people necessary to promote 

sharing of geospatial data throughout all levels of government, the private and nonprofit sectors, and the academic 

community.

When the applications of geospatial data and information have the same objectives, the NSDI appears to be 

a Amagic bullet;” however, some Federal agencies are 

apt to be involved in more litigation than others. This is 

especially true for regulatory agencies, such as the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). EPAs mission 

is to protect human health and to safeguard the natural 

environment—air, water, and land—upon which life 

depends.

To accomplish its mission, EPA works to develop and 

enforce regulations that implement environmental laws 

enacted by Congress. EPA is responsible for researching 

and setting national standards for a variety of environmental programs, and, when appropriate, delegates to 

States and tribes the responsibility for issuing permits 

and for monitoring and enforcing compliance. Where 

National standards are not met, EPA can issue sanctions 

and take other steps to assist the States and tribes in reaching the desired levels of environmental quality.

Data, and the technology used to create them, are one 

of the primary drivers in the creation of space law and in 

many cases are the foundation upon which existing space 

law rests (Gabrynowicz, 1996). The technology involved 

in creating data may include, but not be limited to, one 

or more of the following:

Remote sensing apparatus, such as satellites and aerial 

photographs, that are used to capture images

Global positioning satellites, that are used to establish 

location

Geographic information systems, a system of hardware, software, data, people, organizations, and 

institutional arrangements that are used to collect, 

store, analyze, and disseminate georeferenced information

Data may also originate from non-technological 

sources, such as:

Mechanical or engineering drawings, used for many 

purposes such as depicting and envisioning structure

Pre-existing (or archived) data, direct or transformed 

to be used as an integral part of the project at hand

Text reports that may contain data such as chemical 

analyses

Because societies, technologies, cultures, and people 

are rapidly changing, definitions for key words and 

phrases used throughout this paper are addressed:

•

•

•

•

•

•

Planning Quality for Successful International 

Environmental Monitoring

George M. Brilis and John G. Lyon, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, National 

Exposure Research Laboratory, Las Vegas, NV

Jeffery C. Worthington, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Environmental 

Information, Washington, DC

Abstract—Federal, State, and municipal government entities are increasingly depending on geospatial data for a myriad of purposes. This trend is expected to continue. 

Information sharing and interoperability are in line with the Federal Executive Order 

12906 (Clinton, 1994) which calls for the establishment of the National Spatial Data 

Infrastructure (NSDI). If other organizations voluntarily implement the U.S. Environmental 

Protection Agency’s quality planning approach—or a similar approach that embraces 

the same critical quality elements—for projects that include geospatial data, then an 

increased level of confidence will be achieved for information that is shared between 

organizations and countries.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 889

Technology is the combination of skills, knowledge 

materials, machines, and tools, that people use to convert, or change, raw materials into valuable goods or 

services—in the context of this paper, data are produced 

(De Sutter, J., 2003).

Information is the representation of data (or raw 

facts) to a receiver; it is the most important resource of 

a modern organization. Information is data in a usable 

form, processed in some way, it is data plus interpretation.

Data Package is the composite of the deliverable 

item(s) from producer to client. The data package may 

include, but not be limited to:

Data

Metadata (data about data)

Information

Conclusions

The process, progress, and closure of national and international space law cases that must consider geospatial 

data and concepts may become hindered by the lack of 

consistency in the formation and content of a data package (Lunetta and others 1991). At the time of this writing, 

geospatial data package content and structure are being 

submitted to clients in a manner that suits the creator 

(vendor) of the package, at times within consultation with 

the client. In other words, often there is no consistency 

in the way data packages are structured.

This inconsistency may require reviewers to take an 

inordinate amount of time searching the package to find 

case-relevant information, provided the information is 

available in the package. This problem is compounded 

when a reviewer must compare two packages, from 

two vendors (prosecution and defense) to determine 

consistency or points-of-departure. If the case-relevant 

information is contained in the packages, the reviewer 

may find it necessary to determine where this information is in the package, and how the vendors presented 

the information. In some situations, the reviewer may be 

required to normalize the data in each package in order 

to make a proper comparison (i.e., resolution).

The questions arise then: If parties are going to voluntarily create consistent data packages as deliverables, 

on what basis should the packages be structured? What 

element(s) crosses the real and imaginary borders of science and politics that would be palatable to all nations, 

data providers, clients, and stakeholders? The answer lies 

in the examination of processes common to companies 

throughout the world. Developed first as a means of efficiency, and to ensure continuity of production processes, 

Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs) have been written 

to ensure that if one employee departed, another could 

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take his/her position and the production line would still 

operate relatively smoothly.

Another, primary, reason Standard Operating 

Procedures (SOPs) are written is to ensure that, within 

an organization, products have a consistent level of quality. Equally important, an organization must ensure that 

employees implement the SOPs; it is not enough to have 

them on the shelf. Over the centuries, companies have 

found, on an international level, that SOPs:

Ensure smooth production

Help to ensure consistent quality

Demonstrate to clients that their concerns are addressed

....and more

“Error may be transferred from one data process step 

to the next unknown to the analysts until it manifests in 

the final product,...” (Lunetta, 1991). SOPs may facilitate 

tracking the source of errors and thereby reduce error 

propagation. The ability to reduce error propagation 

increases the overall quality of geospatial products. For 

more than a decade, the geospatial science community 

has been engaged in identifying potential sources of 

error, discussing the impact of the error and making recommendations to overcome error-related impediments. 

Vigilance is required because technology in general, and 

the tools used in geospatial analysis is always evolving. 

Therefore, SOPs need to be periodically reviewed and 

revised and appropriate in order to ensure the continual 

improvement of quality.

The link of SOPs to quality and the importance of 

following SOPs has been recognized and articulated 

by the scientific community. The impact of the “SOP to 

quality” link in the geospatial and space law arena is best 

exemplified by one case in which a private manufacturer 

of aeronautical products was not found liable for inaccurate data used in an aeronautical chart (Brocklesby v. 

The United States and Jepperson & Co). Jepperson had 

changed the chart format text to graphic form, and, the 

court said of Jepperson, “...in the process it had the ability 

and opportunity to detect the error.” The court also held 

that the manufacturer had the right to seek indemnification 

against its co-defendant, the United States, who through 

the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), supplied 

the information used on the chart. This decision resulted 

in passing a new law to provide indemnification by the 

United States in future cases (Gabrynowicz, 1996).

This particular case is important enough to be restated: Jepperson claimed they were not liable because 

the defective data came from the FAA. The court held 

that Jepperson could have verified the data by following 

the process in their own Standard Operating Procedures 

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which required it to check the data to determine its validity and completeness.

The processes described in Jepperson’s SOPs to check 

data validity and completeness are Quality Assurance 

(QA) and Quality Control (QC) procedures.

The NSDI and Global Spatial Data Infrastructure 

(GSDI) are conceptually sound and are making progress 

in their objectives; however, neither organization has 

fully addressed QA and QC procedures. Additionally, the 

Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC), though it 

factors QA and QC procedures into its products, has not 

separately and explicitly addressed QA and QC procedures – neither in its documentation nor its organizational 

structure.

Consistent means to share geographic data among all 

users could produce significant savings for data collection 

and use and could enhance decision making. Executive 

Order 12906 calls for the establishment of the National 

Spatial Data Infrastructure defined as the technologies, 

policies, and people necessary to promote sharing of 

geospatial data throughout all levels of government, 

the private and non-profit sectors, and the academic 

community. The goal of this Infrastructure is to reduce 

duplication of effort among agencies, improve quality, 

and reduce costs related to geographic information, to 

make geographic data more accessible to the public, 

to increase the benefits of using available data, and to 

establish key partnerships with States, counties, cities, 

tribal nations, academia and the private sector to increase 

data availability.

The NSDI has come to be seen as the technology, 

policies, criteria, standards, and people necessary to 

promote geospatial data sharing throughout all levels of 

government, the private and non-profit sectors, and academia (FGDC, 2004). NSDI provides a base or structure 

of practices and relationships among data producers and 

users that facilitates data sharing and use. NSDI is a set 

of actions and new ways of accessing, sharing, and using 

geographic data that enables far more comprehensive 

analysis of data to help decision-makers chose the best 

course(s) of action. Much has been accomplished in 

recent years to further the implementation of the NSDI, 

but there is still much to be done to achieve the vision: 

current and accurate geographic data that are readily 

available across the country (FGDC, USGS, 2004).

Cooperation and partnerships for spatial data activities among the Federal government, State and local 

governments, and the private sector will be essential 

for developing a robust infrastructure. The twenty-first 

century will see geographic information transported 

from remote nodes using computer networks to support 

decision making throughout the Nation. The National 

Information Infrastructure (NII) will provide the 

technology infrastructure to make this possible. The costs 

of creating and maintaining digital spatial data are high, 

so it is particularly important that spatial data collection 

not be duplicated, and that data be shared to fully realize its potential benefits. Largely for these reasons, the 

National Performance Review (prepared under the guidance of former Vice President Gore) urged the formation 

of spatial data partnerships between Federal agencies, 

State and local governments, and the private sector. After 

examining the pros and cons of several current spatial 

data programs that involve partnerships, the Mapping 

Science Committee (MSC) of the National Academies 

of Science (Mapping Science Committee, 1993) agreed 

that a partnership model, the subject of this report, is an 

excellent approach for enhancing the NSDI. The MSC 

serves as a focus for external advice to Federal agencies 

on scientific and technical matters related to spatial data 

handling and analysis. One of the Committee’s roles is to 

provide advice on the development of the NSDI for making informed decisions at all levels of government and 

throughout society in general. Recently a number of State 

geographic information councils have been established 

to coordinate spatial data activities within the respective 

States. Such councils can also encourage partnerships 

between State and local government agencies, coordinate 

arrangements between State agencies and the private sector, and provide points of contact for partnerships with 

the Federal government organizations. The MSC agrees 

with the recommendation of the Federal Geographic Data 

Committee (FGDC) in its strategic plan to help form or 

strengthen these State geographic information councils 

(Mapping Science Committee, 1993).

The relationship of the FGDC and the NSDI is that 

the FGDC is responsible for steering the NSDI. A recent 

report form the US Government Accountability Office 

(GAO) clearly addresses the need for improvement in 

identifying and reducing duplicative investments (GAO, 

2004a). In their report the GAO notes that the Federal 

Enterprise Architecture effort, and FGDC’s reporting process - are insufficiently developed and have not produced 

consistent and complete information (GAO, 2004b). 

In addition to its other responsibilities, the Office of 

Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-16 charges 

FGDC with leading the preparation of a strategic plan for 

the implementation of the NSDI. Such a plan could ensure coherence among the many geospatial coordination 

activities that are under way and provide ways to measure success in reducing redundancies. In 1994, FGDC 

issued a strategic plan that described actions Federal 

agencies and others could take to develop the NSDI, 

such as establishing data themes and standards, training 

programs, and partnerships to promote coordination and 

data sharing. In April 1997, FGDC published an updated 
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planCwith input from many organizations and individuals having a stake in developing the NSDICthat defined 

strategic goals and objectives to support the vision of 

the NSDI as defined in the 1994 plan. Unfortunately, 

no further updates have been made (GAO, 2004c); the 

current work can be viewed at their website http://www.

fgdc.gov/nsdi/nsdi.html. In addition, the current National 

Geospatial Strategy Document, FGDC’s 1997 plan, is 

also out of date. (GAO, 2004d).

OMB Circular A-16 established the NSDI and the 

FGDC. OMB A-16 links the FGDC and NSDI to quality 

in the statement “A coordinated approach for developing 

spatial data standards that apply to collecting, maintaining, distributing, using, and preservation of data will 

improve the quality of spatial data and reduce the cost 

of derivative products created by federal and non-federal users” (OMB A-16, 2002a). Since the focus of the 

GAO report was on duplicative efforts, the GAO did not 

include a review of quality issues in their study of the 

FGDC and the NSDI geospatial information. A search 

of the GAO report for the word “quality,” and phrase 

“information quality” confirms this suspicion because 

a word search of the study yielded nothing more than 

“quality of air...,” “...water quality..,” etc. Recognizing 

that the improvement of quality does not “just happen,” 

OMB developed its own Information Quality Guidelines 

(IQGs), however OMB’s IQGs have not “trickled-down” 

to the FGDC and NSDI. The authors anticipate that 

GAO may subsequently report on FGDC and NSDI 

quality issues, since the referenced GAO report does not 

include recommendations regarding the establishment 

and implementation of IQGs.

The authors of this paper believe that a consistent approach to quality planning, information technology, and 

information management, will provide the basis for solution of the issues identified by the US GAO, and more. 

In addition, it is critical that the information shared be 

of known quality. A baseline level of quality assurance, 

including adequate documentation, is required to ensure 

confident, interoperability of data.

Why is Planning for Geospatial 

Projects Important?

Planning is important in geospatial projects because 

it allows the project team to identify potential problems 

that may be encountered on a project and develop ways to 

work around or solve those problems before they become 

critical to timelines, budgets, or final product quality. 

Many examples exist of how a lack of planning impacts 

quality in geospatial projects. Lack of planning and detailed knowledge about data needs can cost a project a 

great deal of time and effort. Also the graded approach 

to developing QA Project Plans increases efficiency in 

that QA Project Plan elements are planned to be commensurate with the scope, magnitude, or importance of 

the project itself.

Developing and implementing a good QA Project Plan 

provides value to a geospatial project by:

Guiding project personnel through the implementation 

process, helping ensure that choices are consistent 

with the established objectives and criteria for the 

project and providing material for the final report.

Fostering project transparency, better communication 

among the project team members, and better results 

for the decision maker.

Reducing the risk of schedule and budget overruns.

Leading to a more defensible outcome than a project 

without proper planning documentation.

Documenting the criteria and assumptions in one place 

for easy review and referral by anyone interested in 

the process.

Providing consistency, making it easy for others to 

review the procedures and ensuring that individual 

steps are not overlooked in the planning phase.

In addition to these benefits, a project with a welldefined QA Project Plan often takes less time and effort 

to complete than a project without a planning document. 

Projects without planning documents are more likely 

to need additional money and time to correct or redo 

collection, analysis, or processing of data. The savings 

resulting from good planning typically outweighs the 

time and effort spent to develop the QA Project Plan. 

Poor quality planning often results in poor decisions. The 

costs of decision-making mistakes can be enormous and 

far outweigh the costs of proper planning for quality.

Quality Assurance Project Plan

The QAPP is a necessary and pivotal plan to guide 

and assure known quality in scientific and engineering projects. It is defined as a “document describing in 

comprehensive detail the necessary Quality Assurance 

(QA), Quality Control (QC), and other technical activities 

that must be implemented to ensure that the results of 

the work performed will satisfy the stated performance 

criteria” (EPA, 2001a), and it is composed of a number 

of elements.

What are the Characteristics of a 

Scientifically Sound Geospatial Data 

Project Plan?

A scientifically sound, quality-based geospatial QA 

Project Plan generally:

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Provides documentation of the outcome of the systematic planning process.

Is developed using a process designed to minimize 

or control errors.

Documents the standard operating procedures to be 

followed.

Documents the data sources, format, and status of the 

existing (also called secondary or non-direct measurements) data to be used in the project [including 

topological status, accuracy, completeness, and other 

needed Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) 

metadata].

Is frequently updated as new information becomes 

available or as changes in methodology are requested.

Provides for the documentation of any changes from 

the original plan.

Current Trends in Geospatial 

QA

Literature searches reveal that the geospatial science 

community continues to conduct research and promulgate guidance regarding spatial accuracy (Mower and 

Congalton 2000) (Lunetta and Lyon, 2004). However, 

spatial accuracy alone is not enough. Information 

Technology (IT) and Information Management (IM), 

provide the foundation of support for geospatial science. 

Ensuring that IT and IM are sound and minimize the 

chance of corrupting the data stored or passed through 

them is an essential step in handling any type of electronic 

data (Brilis, 2003a).

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has a 

Geospatial Quality Program (GQC) which guides the 

Geospatial Quality Council (GQC). Since its’ formation 

in 1999, the GQC has developed numerous geospatial 

quality guidance documents and training courses to 

bridge the gap between the quality assurance community 

and the geospatial science community. The “Progress and 

Products” section of the GQC website contains downloadable QA guidance documents (Brilis 2003b).

In addition, the entire life cycle of geospatial information must be considered for a holistic approach 

to assuring quality. The life cycle consists of: Quality 

Planning; Data Acquisition; Data Input; Data Storage; 

Data Transformation; Data Output; and the often overlooked area of Data and Information Use and Misuse. 

This journal article focuses on the first step, Quality 

Planning.

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Who Can Benefit from this 

Document?

Anyone developing geospatial projects or using geospatial data for EPA will benefit from this document. This 

document helps in the creation of a QA Project Plan that 

specifically addresses the issues and concerns related to 

the quality of geospatial data, processing, and analysis. 

This document also helps anyone who is:

Creating geospatial data from maps, aerial photos, 

images, or other sources.

Generating or acquiring the aerial photos or images.

Using existing data sources in their geospatial projects.

Generating new geospatial data from Global Positioning 

System (GPS) receiver data on horizontal and vertical 

positions.

Developing complex analysis programs that manipulate geospatial data.

Overseeing applications programming or software 

development projects—to understand how planning 

is related to developing software programs that use 

geospatial data.

Reviewing QA Project Plans for geospatial data—to 

understand the steps and details behind the planning.

Serving as a QA Officer for a group that creates or 

uses geospatial data.

The benefits of a QA Project Plan are to communicate, 

to all parties, the specifications for implementation of 

the project design and to ensure that the objectives are 

achieved for the project. It does not guarantee success 

every time, but the prospects are much higher with a QA 

Project Plan than without one (EPA, 2002a).

Graded Approach

Systematic planning for QA/QC is based on a common-sense, graded approach. The graded approach is the 

process of basing the level of application of managerial 

controls applied to an item or work according to the 

intended use of the results and the degree of confidence 

needed in the quality of the results. This means that the 

extent of systematic planning and the approach to be 

taken match the general importance of the project and the 

intended use of the data. For example, when geospatial 

data processing is used to help generate data either for 

decision making (i.e., hypothesis testing) or for determin-

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ing compliance with a standard, EPA recommends that 

the systematic planning process take the form of the Data 

Quality Objectives (DQO) Process that is explained in 

detail within Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives 

Process (QA/G-4) (EPA, 2000a).

The Graded approach to QA Project Plans implies that, 

for projects of very limited scope, quality objectives, or 

size, a simple description of the use of weekly or monthly 

status e-mails may be appropriate. For more complex 

projects with many processing steps, data sources, and 

complex processing methods, more formal reports may 

be specified and documented.

Secondary Use of Data

Secondary use of data is the use of data collected for 

other purposes or from other sources, as distinct from 

the primary acquisition or purpose. Sources may include 

literature, industry surveys, compilations from computerized databases and informa­tion systems, and results from 

computerized or mathematical models of environmental 

processes and conditions.

Geospatial projects, almost always use existing data 

from a source external to the project. When designing a 

project and, in turn, developing a QA Project Plan, the 

question of which Geographic Information System (GIS) 

data sources to use is important.

Overview of the Components 

of a QA Project Plan

This section provides a list of the components of a QA 

Project Plan included in EPA Requirements for Quality 

Assurance Project Plans (QA/R-5) (EPA, 2001b). The 

components of a QA Project Plan are categorized into 

“groups” according to their function, and “elements” 

within each group that define particular components of 

each group and form the organizational structure of the 

QA Project Plan. QA groups are lettered and QA elements 

are numbered. The four groups are:

Group A—Project Management

The elements in this group address the basic area of 

project management, including the project history and 

objectives, roles and responsibilities of the participants, 

etc. These elements ensure that the project has a defined 

goal, that the participants understand the goal and the 

approach to be used, and that the planning outputs have 

been documented.

Group B—Data Generation and 

Acquisition

The elements in this group address all aspects of project design and implementation. Implementation of these 

elements ensure that appropriate methods for sampling, 

measurement and analysis, data collection or generation, 

data handling, and QC activities are employed and are 

properly documented.

Group C—Assessment and Oversight

The elements in this group address the activities for 

assessing the effectiveness of project implementation and 

associated QA and QC activities. The purpose of assessment is to ensure that the QA Project Plan is implemented 

as prescribed.

Group D—Data Validation and 

Usability

The elements in this group address the QA activities 

that occur after the data collection or generation phase 

of the project is completed. Implementation of these 

elements ensures that the data conform to the specified 

criteria, thus achieving the project objectives.

Table 1 shows a complete list of the QA Project Plan 

groups and elements. Subsequent sections of this paper 

provide more detail about the content of each section.

Suggested Content of QA Plan 

Elements

The QA Plan structure described in the groups above 

leaves the content of each section open to the discretion 

of the QA Plan author(s). There are a number of suggested 

contents for each of the groups. This content is “suggested” because each geospatial project is unique. The 

suggested content is not a “one-size-fits-all” scenario.

To exemplify the range of geospatial products, two 

types of projects are presented for illustrative purposes. 

Example 1: A hazardous waste site manager may need 

geospatial information to take an alleged violator to court 

Example 2: Geospatial projects - this may require near 

real-time satellite imagery. A researcher may be involved 

in evaluating the effect of city growth on the environment, therefore archived images of the site in addition to 

near real-time satellite images may be required to conduct 

this type of assessment.

Because of the wide-array of geospatial applications, 

the content for each QA Plan group is suggested. The QA 
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Plan author(s) should consider contacting the project manager, and/or the appropriate QA professional to ensure that 

critical quality items are addressed in the QA Plan.

The suggested content is presented in the next sections.

Group A—Positioning the Project in 

Earthly Perspective

Title and approval sheet

Suggested Content:

Title of plan.

Name of organization.

Names, titles, and signatures of appropriate officials.

Approval signature dates.

Table of contents

Suggested Content:

Table of contents.

List of tables, figures, references, and appendices.

Document control format when specified by the 

Project Manager.

Distribution list

Suggested Content:

Individuals and organizations who receive approved 

QA Project Plan.

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Individuals and organizations responsible for implementation.

Individuals and organizations who receive updates.

Project/task organization

Suggested Content:

Identified roles and responsibilities.

Documentation of the QA Manager’s independence 

of the unit generating the data.

The individual responsible for maintaining the official 

QA Project Plan is identified.

Organization chart showing lines of responsibility and 

communication.

List of outside external organizations and subcontractors in the organization chart.

Problem definition/background

Suggested Content:

The specific problem to be solved or decision to be 

made.

Description of the project’s purpose, goals, and objectives.

Identification of programs this project supports.

Description of the intended use of the data to be gathered or processed.

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Table 1. Summary of QA Groups and Elements.

Group Element Title

A 1 Title and Approval Sheet

2 Table of Contents

3 Distribution List

4 Project/Task Organization

5 Problem Definition/Background

6 Project/Task Description

7 Quality Objectives and Criteria

8 Special Training/Certification

 9 Documents and Records

B 1 Sampling Process Design

2 Sampling and Image Acquisition Methods

3 Sample Handling and Custody

4 Analytical Methods

 5 Quality Control

6 Instrument/Equipment Testing, Inspection, and Maintenance

7 Instrument/Equipment Calibration and Frequency

8 Inspection/Acceptance for Supplies and Consumables

9 Data Acquisition (Nondirect Measurements)

 10 Data Management

C 1 Assessments and Response Actions

2 Reports to Management

D 1 Data Review, Verification, and Validation

2 Verification and Validation Methods

3 Reconciliation with User Requirements
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Project/task description

Suggested Content:

Sufficient background for a historical and scientific 

perspective for project tasks.

Schedule and cost.

Quality objectives and criteria

Suggested Content:

The quality objectives for the project.

The performance and acceptance criteria used to 

evaluate quality. (Use the systematic planning process to develop quality objectives and performance 

criteria [see EPA Quality Manual for Environmental 

Programs, Section 3.3.8.1 (EPA, 2000a), for more 

information]).

Special training/certification

Suggested Content:

Any training or certification specifications for the 

project.

Plans for meeting these specifications.

Documents and records

Suggested Content:

Description of the mechanism for distributing the QA 

Project Plan to project staff.

List of the information to be included with final products, including metadata records, calibration and test 

results (for GPS or remote sensing tasks), processing 

descriptions provided by data vendors (for example, 

address matching, success rate reports from address 

matching vendors).

List of any other documents applicable to the project, 

such as hard-copy map source material, metadata provided with data from secondary data sources, interim 

reports, and final reports.

All applicable specifications for the final disposition of 

records and documents, including location and length 

of retention period.

Group B—Data Generation and 

Acquisition

Sampling process design

Suggested Content:

Description of the data or image acquisition design.

For geospatial data to be collected, the design for 

acquisition (for example, how and where locational 

data will be acquired).

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Sampling and image acquisition methods

Suggested Content:

Description of data, photography, or imagery collection procedures.

Methods and equipment to be used.

Description of GPS equipment preparation.

Description of performance criteria.

Description of corrective actions to be taken if problems arise.

Sample handling and custody

Suggested Content:

Description of needs for handling and transfer of hardcopy imagery or other hard-copy data inputs.

Analytical methods

Suggested Content:

Image processing and/or photo-analysis methods to 

be used.

List of method performance criteria, if applicable.

QC activities needed for GPS measurements, field 

observations, map digitization, image acquisition, 

image processing, or image analysis.

The frequency of each check and corrective action 

needed when limits are exceeded.

Quality control

Suggested Content:

Develop QC checklist for each step of data collection, 

checking and assessing the quality of map digitizing 

or satellite ground-truthing results.

Ensuring that the requested special bands have been 

delivered.

Checking against independent data sets such as other 

images or vector products.

Examining the cloud coverage of images to ensure 

that cloud coverage extent does not impede use of 

the data.

Ensuring that the view angle of imagery is as specified.

Instrument/equipment testing, inspection, and 

maintenance

Suggested Content:

Description of how inspections and acceptance testing 

of instruments, equipment, and their components affecting quality will be performed and documented.

Description of how deficiencies will be resolved.

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Description of (or reference to) periodic preventive 

and corrective maintenance of measurement or test 

equipment.

Instrument/equipment calibration and 

frequency

Suggested Content:

Instruments used for data collection whose accuracy 

and operation need to be maintained within specified 

limits.

Description of (or reference to) how calibration will 

be conducted.

How calibration records will be maintained and traced 

to the instrument.

Inspection/acceptance for supplies and 

consumables

Suggested Content:

Description of how and by whom supplies and consumables will be inspected and accepted.

Data acquisition (nondirect measurements)

Suggested Content:

Description of secondary data used.

Description of the intended use of the data.

Acceptance criteria for using the data in the project 

and any limitations on that use.

Information Technology issues.

Logistical consistency.

Data management

Suggested Content:

Description of the project management or activities.

Flow charts of data usage and processing.

Description of how data will be managed to reduce 

processing errors.

Description of the mechanism for detecting and correcting errors in data processing.

Examples of checklists or forms to be used.

Description of the hardware/software configuration 

to be used on the project.

Description of the procedures that will be followed to 

demonstrate acceptability of the process.

Description of the data analysis or statistical techniques to be used.

Information Technology issues:

Security.

Electronic Exchange Formats.

Hardware/Software Configuration.

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Group C—Assessment/Oversight

Assessments and response actions

Suggested Content:

Description of each assessment.

Information expected and success criteria.

Assessments to be done within the project team and 

which are done outside the project team.

The scope of authority of assessors.

Discussion of how response actions to assessment 

findings are to be addressed.

Description of how corrective actions will be carried 

out.

Reports to management

Suggested Content:

Frequency and distribution of reports issued to management that document assessments, problems, and 

progress.

Individuals or organizations responsible for preparing 

the reports and actions recipients would take upon 

receipt of the reports.

Group D—Data Validation and 

Usability

Data review, verification, and validation

Suggested Content:

The criteria to be used to validate and verify the final 

product.

Verification and validation methods

Suggested Content:

Description of validation and verification processes 

for the final products.

Discussion of issues related to resolving problems 

detected and identification of individuals or authorities 

who determine corrective actions.

Description of how the results of the validation will 

be documented for the product users.

Definition of differences between validation and 

verification issues.

Reconciliation with user requirements

Suggested Content:

Description of how the products or results will be 

reconciled with criteria defined by the data user or 

decision maker.

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Description of how reconciliation with user criteria will 

be documented and how issues will be resolved.

Discussion of limitations on the use of the final data 

product and how these limitations will be documented 

for data users or decision makers.

Discussion

Application of a structured quality plan facilitates subsequent assessment, not only by scientists, but by courts. 

A structured quality plan communicates that the basic scientific method is being applied. This in turn ensures that 

judges have a basis that they can relate to. Specifically 

the U.S. Supreme Court’s concept of “sound science,” as 

related to environmental programs and their supporting 

data, requires an assessment of exactly what the legal 

concepts are and what are the actual processes to which 

they apply in an environmental program. The “Daubert 

Rule” looks specifically at the theory or technique and 

some areas associated with the theory or technique (for 

example, peer review, error rates, standards for control, 

and general acceptance) (Brilis, 2000).

A critical question might be, “What are the sciencerelated theories or techniques involved in environmental 

programs?” Theories and techniques may be based on 

one or more disciplines, such as:

experimental design

engineering design

sampling

chemistry/biology

quality assurance

statistical analysis

risk assessment

risk management

When does the Daubert Rule come into play? Maybe 

not at all. The Daubert Rule would most likely apply to 

novel situations where a standard approach to performing 

the operation does not exist. For example, if the investigation activity is predetermined according to a known 

method and the analytical work is a known method (i.e., 

EPA and ASTM methods), then discussions about what 

might constitute needed proof for a hypothetical situation 

may be totally unnecessary.

For much of the environmental work performed on 

a routine basis, this approach is simply not necessary. 

However, when the activity requires the application of 

scientific expertise, the criteria outlined in the Daubert 

Rule makes sense when looking at admissibility of scientific evidence.

How should scientists respond to the complex implication of law on the process of science? Scientists should 

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focus on the overlying charge that forms the basis for all 

credible work, that is, “to produce data of known and acceptable quality that is usable for its intended purpose.” 

The intended purpose is key to the establishment of clear 

objectives for the project, the associated measurements, 

and their associated quality control criteria (Maney and 

Wait, 1991; Wait and Douglas, 1995). Each of the criteria 

mentioned here are not requirements and the end result is 

not good or bad, depending on the objective; the resulting 

information can be considered good, better, or best for 

assisting lawyers in using the overall result to support 

the original objectives.

From 1993 to 1999 more than 2000 cases cite the 

Daubert decision. As such, it behooves the scientist conducting defensible testing to consider the following:

Planning Criteria

persons planning this work are knowledgeable (expert 

and trained)

planning was performed

planning was documented

the plan was reviewed

the plan included a clear objective(s)

the plan included readily identifiable measurements 

to achieve the objectives

the plan stated specific QC criteria for the measurements

the plan referenced sampling and analytical procedures

Implementation criteria

changes to the plan were noted and approved

the activity was implemented as planned

there was documented management overview of the 

implementation

there was documented quality assurance overview of 

the implementation

corrective action regarding problems noted during 

overview was taken and documented

the personnel performing the work were trained

the records that were kept were accurate

the supplies used met requirements

measurement devices were calibrated

problems encountered were recorded

problems were resolved (and documented)

The result and assessment criteria

quality control criteria were met

report conclusions are supported by data

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898 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

the data were validated

the report was reviewed

review comments were addressed

results are comparable to results from similar work

Sample authenticity criteria

chain of custody was maintained

sample identity was maintained

sample integrity was not compromised

sample records are all consistent

Data integrity criteria

data output records were well maintained

computer hardware and software was controlled

the quality of any secondary data used is known

The above information resembles the body of items 

one might consider in either a quality management plan 

or a project-specific technical specifications document. 

Scientists and lawyers have similar interests which are 

based on the overall objectives of the scientific effort. 

In some cases, quality control needs to focus on a single 

sample, when that sample might be used to prove the need 

for enforcement. In other cases, quality control needs 

to focus on a larger process such as the characterization of a site and potential cleanup. Still in other cases, 

quality control needs to focus on the proof of a research 

experiment which looks at a single technology application on a very small area or amount of material. In all 

cases, planning should consider the overall objective of 

the process considered during application of scientific 

techniques or theories.

Conclusion

The future holds many changes and challenges for 

geospatial data, image interpreters and the geospatial 

scientist. For example, the demand by the legal profession for GIS experts has increased since the GIS 

software has left the UNIX format and found its’ way 

to more user-friendly software. This demand has been 

and will be intensified by the problems of environmental 

industrial contamination and the lawsuits brought against 

individuals and corporations by citizens, employees, and 

public agencies.

We predict that geospatial scientists, using advanced 

image analysis and GIS techniques, will become more adept at gathering data from complex problems. They will 

use this data in increasingly sophisticated ways to answer 

the numerous questions that surround legal cases.

The state of quality of geospatial science in the courtroom is still evolving as the courts continuously consider 

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the quality of evidence. This is particularly true in cases 

where novel scientific techniques are used. Recent trends 

towards the use of remotely-sensed images, especially 

those using wavelengths outside the visible spectrum, 

beg the users to ensure that quality assurance and quality control policies and procedures are in place to ensure 

defensible evidence.

However, policies and procedures alone are not enough. 

Policies and procedures must be implemented and their 

use must be documented. The case of Brocklesby v. U.S. 

and Jeppesen & Co., highlights this fact. In this case, 

Jeppesen claimed that the defective data was obtained 

from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and 

therefore no liability should be placed on Jeppesen. The 

court held that it was incumbent upon Jeppesen to verify 

the FAA’s data by following its own Standard Operating 

Procedures which require Jeppesen to verify the integrity 

of the data (Ninth Circuit Court, 1985).

Additionally, the use of qualified experts that can 

translate complex and novel images or GIS products is 

becoming increasingly important. Indeed, litigators may 

increase the use of geospatial experts to help “translate” 

the technicalities of a case. While one may have highly 

defensible data, the communication of evidence to the 

lay persons (jurists) is critical in making a convincing 

presentation.

Image interpreters and GIS specialists are first and 

foremost analysts and their unique abilities will have an 

increasingly extensive applicability in the environmental arena. Therefore it is appropriate and necessary that 

geospatial scientists be involved from the beginning of 

the project. That is, “Plan the investigation, and investigate the plan.”

References

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Science in the Courtroom: EPA Quality Assurance and Peer 

Review Policies and Procedures to the Daubert Factors, 

Journal of Environmental Forensics, Vol.1, No.4, pp 197-

203, December 2000.

Brilis, G.M., 2003a, Secrets of Information Technology 

Auditing, published by ComQwest, LLC, November 2003, 

197 pp [ISBN 0-9753454-2-7].

Brilis, G.M., 2003b, EPA Geospatial Quality Council: Progress 

and Products:, website maintained by U.S. EPA, URL 

http://www.epa.gov/nerlesd1/gqc/default.htm (Last date 

accessed: August 6, 2004), published by ComQwest, LLC, 

November 2003, 197 pp [ISBN 0-9753454-2-7].

Bush, G. W., Executive Order 13286 - Amendment of Executive 

Orders, and Other Actions, in Connection With the Transfer 

of Certain Functions to the Secretary of Homeland Security, 

U.S. Federal Register, Volume 68, Number 43, Wednesday 

March 5, 2003, pg 10629.

Clinton, W. J., Coordinating Geographic Data Acquisition 

and Access: The National Spatial Data Infrastructure, U.S. 
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Federal Register, Volume 59, Number 71, Wednesday April 

23,1993 4 pp.

De Sutter, J., 2003. The Power of IT: Survival Guide for the 

CIO, published by De Sutter, 2003, 440pp

EPA, 2000a. EPA Guidance for the Data Quality Objectives 

Process (QA/G-4), United States Environmental Protection 

Agency, EPA/600/R-96/055, August 2000, 100pp.

EPA, 2001a. EPA Requirements for Quality Assurance Project 

Plans (QA/R-5), United States Environmental Protection 

Agency, EPA/240/B-01/003, Appendix B, pg B-3, March 

2001, 40pp.

EPA, 2001b. EPA Requirements for Quality Assurance Project 

Plans (QA/R-5), United States Environmental Protection 

Agency, EPA/240/B-01/003, pgs 11-21, March 2001, 

40pp.

EPA, 2002a. EPA Guidance for Quality Assurance Project Plans 

(QA/G-5), United States Environmental Protection Agency, 

EPA/240/R-02/009, pg 2, December 2002, 111pp.

FGDC, USGS, 590 National Center, Reston, VA 20192 URL:

http://www.fgdc.gov/nsdi/nsdi.html, (Last date accessed: 

August 6, 2004) [NOTE: Alternatively, first enter URL: 

http://www.fgdc.gov, then click on “NDSI”].

Gabrynowicz, J.I., 1996, Commercial High-Altitude Unpiloted 

Aerial Remote Sensing: Some Legal Considerations, 

Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing, Vol. 62, 

No. 3, March 1996, pp. 275-278.

GAO, 2004a, Geospatial Information: Better Coordination 

Needed to Identify and Reduce Duplicative Investments, 

United States General Accounting Office, GAO-04-703, 

52 pp, June 2004.

GAO, 2004b, Geospatial Information: Better Coordination 

Needed to Identify and Reduce Duplicative Investments, 

United States General Accounting Office, Highlights 

of GAO-04-703, URL http://www.gao.gov/highlights/

d04703high.pdf , June 23, 2004, 1 pp.

GAO, 2004c, Geospatial Information: Better Coordination 

Needed to Identify and Reduce Duplicative Investments, 

United States General Accounting Office, GAO-04-703, 

pgs 23 -24, June 23, 2004.

GAO, 2004d, Geospatial Information: Better Coordination 

Needed to Identify and Reduce Duplicative Investments, 

United States General Accounting Office, GAO-04-703, 

pg 2, June 23, 2004

Lunetta, R.S., Congalton, R.G., Fenstermaker, L.K., Jensen, 

J.R.,McGuire, K.C., Tinney, L.R. Remote Sensing and 

Geographic Information System Data Integration: Error 

Sources and Research Issues, Photogrammetric Engineering 

& Remote Sensing, Vol. 57, No.6, June 1991, pp. 677-

687.

Lunetta , R.S., Lyon, J.G., Geospatial Data Accuracy 

Assessment, EPA/600/R-03/064, U.S. EPA 2003, 

pp 339.

Maney, J.P. and Wait, A.D., The Importance of Measurement 

Integrity. Environmental. Laboratory, Vol. 3, No. 5, pp 

20-25, 1991.

Mower, T.H., Congalton, R.G., Quantifying Spatial Uncertainty 

in Natural Resources: Theory and Applications for GIS and 

Remote Sensing Ann Arbor Press, 2000, pp 244.

Mapping Science Committee, 1993. Toward a Coordinated 

Spatial Data Infrastructure for the Nation (1993), National 

Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, 

D.C., 171 pp.

Ninth Circuit Court, 1985. Brocklesby v. United States, 767 

F.2d 1288, 1294-95 (9th Cir.1985).

OMB A-16, 2002a, Coordination of Geographic Information 

and Related Spatial Data Activities, Office of Management 

and Budget, Circular No. A-16, Revised, August 19, 2002, 

Section 3.

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Environmental Lab, Number 7, pgs 30-34 October 1995.
900 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 901

Knowledge Unification 

Processes
902 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

The mission of the USDA Forest Service is achieving 

sustainable resource management. The Forest Service is 

directly responsible for the sustainable management of 

192 million acres of federal forests and grasslands in the 

National Forest System. The agency is also indirectly 

responsible for promoting the sustainable management of 

another one billion acres of publicly and privately owned 

forests and grasslands in the United States.

Essential to success of the Forest Service mission are 

long-term strategic plans, which communicate policy and 

guide the agency. Strategic planning provides guidance 

for future agency actions by elucidating the agency’s 

mission, as well as strategic goals and objectives. These 

goals and objectives describe a specific course towards 

achieving the agency’s mission.

The strategic plan, however, does not specify what 

work the Forest Service will undertake. It does provide an explanation of why certain types of work are 

necessary and proposes appropriate programmatic and 

integrated strategies for undertaking the work. Execution 

of the agency’s strategic plan is the role of the Annual 

Performance Plan, which describes the annual program 

of work. Various unit plans, including the National Forest 

System’s Land and Resource Management Plans and the 

Research Work Unit Plans, also communicate objectives 

for annual programs of work at the local level (fig. 1).

Strategic Planning History

When Congress established the Forest Service in 1905, 

it did not require that the agency write long-term plans. 

In the 1970s, controversy over forest service programs, 

such as clear-cutting on the national forests, increased. As 

a result, Congress instituted long-term planning requirements for the agency. Among these requirements, the 

Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning 

Act (RPA) of 1974 facilitates the process of assessing 

the status of renewable resources and the process of designing ways to meet present and future needs (Public 

Law 93-378). The RPA assessment and planning activities were designed to provide more scientific bases for 

management of the nation’s forests, to increase public 

participation in forest management, and thereby to reduce 

public contention over Forest Service programs.

Nearly twenty years after Congress first instituted long-term planning requirements, it passed the 

Government Performance and Results Act (Results Act) 

of 1993 mandating that each federal government agency 

prepare five-year strategic plans in consultation with 

Congress and with input from stakeholders. Eventually, 

Results Act strategic plans replaced RPA long-term plans 

as the means for establishing strategic direction for the 

Forest Service.

While the Results Act is similar to RPA, there are differences in language and purpose. An important change 

Strategic Planning for Sustainable Forests: The Plan Drives 

the Budgets Which Drive Results

Paul Brouha, USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC

Elisabeth Grinspoon, USDA Forest Service, RPM, Portland, OR

Abstract—The USDA Forest Service is among the pioneers incorporating the Montreal 

Process criteria and indicators into its programs. Among its initial efforts is the adaptation 

of a criteria and indicators framework for its national strategic plan, which is the primary 

instrument for setting the course to achieve the Forest Service mission of sustaining the 

nation’s forests and grasslands for present and future generations. This presentation 

describes the steps the Forest Service has taken to adopt and implement a criteria and 

indicators-based strategic plan. It also describes the challenges of formulating a budget 

based on performance measures in the plan and then creating field unit and executive 

and manager-level accountability for results that foster sustainability.

“To sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the nation’s forests and grasslands 

to meet the needs of present and future generations.”—United States Department of 

Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service Mission Statement
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 903

is the shift from output to outcome-oriented planning. 

While the RPA Program was output-oriented, the Results 

Act mandates outcome-oriented strategic plans. In other 

words, RPA focused on outputs, which are the products 

or yields resulting from direct consequences of management activities. The Results Act emphasizes outcomes, 

which are cumulative results of many activities directed 

toward common purposes.

Although the Results Act mandated outcome-oriented 

strategic plans, the agency’s initial long-term plan written 

under the Results Act, entitled the 1997 Strategic Plan, 

remained output-oriented and focused on management 

activities. In the 1997 Plan, each strategic goal was divided into several objectives with associated strategies, 

performance measures, and timeframes (GPRA Strategic 

Plan, 1997). For example, Goal 1 was: “Ensure sustainable ecosystems.” It was divided into four objectives: 

aquatic ecosystems, forested ecosystems, rangeland ecosystems, and hazardous substance sites. Under forested 

ecosystems, an objective was to restore 5 to 10 percent 

of National Forest System lands identified as needing 

restoration. Some of the strategies for achieving this 

goal included conducting research, taking inventories, 

and developing collaborative approaches.

The above example is representative of the 1997 

Plan in that it had poorly defined indicators. Lack of 

baseline data also contributed to difficulty in demonstrating progress toward specific objectives and overall 

goals. To improve the strategic plan, the Forest Service 

began linking goals and objectives to science-based 

indicators of sustainability derived from the Montreal 

Process. Before describing how science-based indicators enhanced the strategic planning process, this paper 

outlines the Montreal Process and its implementation in 

the United States.

Montreal Process

The Montreal Process is an initiative among governments of non-European temperate and boreal forest 

countries to develop and implement internationally 

agreed criteria and indicators for sustainable management 

of forests. The notion of sustainability became popular in 

1987 with the publication of Our Common Future, which 

defined sustainable development as “development that 

meets the needs of the present without compromising the 

ability of future generations to meet their own needs” 

(Brundtland, 1987).

Sustainable development was the focus of the 

1992 United Nations Conference on Environment and 

Development, known as the Earth Summit, which led 

to an agreement among world leaders on principles of 

sustainable forest management called the Statement of 

Forest Principles and Agenda 21 (Floyd, 2002). Although 

the broad definition of sustainability produced by the 

Bruntland Commission has been widely accepted, the 

precise meaning of sustainability was, and still is, widely 

debated. The debate focuses on the attributes of a sustainable forest.

In order to further delineate sustainable forests, 

Canada convened in Montreal an International Seminar 

of Experts on Sustainable Development of Boreal and 

Temperate Forests. After the Seminar, the Montreal 

Process Working Group met for the first time and 

stated its goal: “... to advance the development of 

internationally agreed upon criteria and indicators for 

the conservation and sustainable management of temporal and boreal forests at the national level.” In 1995, 

the Working Group issued the Santiago Declaration, 

named after the city in which group members endorsed 

the non-binding agreement on criteria and indicators 

for sustainable forest management. Twelve countries 

encompassing more than 90 percent of the world’s 

temperate and boreal forests endorsed the declaration 

(MPWG, 1999).

The Montreal Process framework does not propose 

management standards, rules, or regulations for managing sustainable forests. Instead, the framework offers a 

data collection tool and communication device in the 

form of indicators. Sustainability indicators are analogous to national economic indicators. Indicators provide 

a common vocabulary for participation and collaboration 

among stakeholders. Just as indicators of inflation and 

unemployment are indispensable in assessing the nation’s 

economic health, sustainability indicators are invaluable 

Figure 1. The Forest Service mission is the foundation 

for planning and program delivery at every level of the 

agency.
904 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

in tracking forest health and formulating analytically 

driven decisions regarding sustainability.

The Montreal Process framework is composed of 

seven criteria and 67 indicators, commonly known as 

the Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators (C&I). 

The Montreal Process Working Group defines criteria 

as categories of conditions or processes by which sustainable forest management may be assessed. Likewise, 

indicators are measures (measurements) of an aspect 

of a criterion. The seven criteria fall into three general 

categories: vital functions and attributes (biodiversity, 

productivity, forest health, the carbon cycle, and soil and 

water protection), socio-economic values and benefits 

(timber, recreation, and cultural values) and the laws and 

regulations that comprise the forest policy framework 

(MPWG, 1999).

On November 5, 1993, following the Earth Summit, 

the United States (U.S.) committed to a national goal of 

sustainable forest management through a presidential 

directive entitled Environmental Policy on International 

Desertification, Forest Conservation, and Fresh Water 

Security (Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-16).

The U.S. not only agreed to non-binding principles 

on forest conservation and sustainable use, the directive 

also stated “...we must take the lead internationally by 

observing these principles ourselves... The United States 

is committed to a national goal of achieving sustainable 

management of U.S. forests... Our national objectives are 

that: our nation’s forest should be healthy and productive; 

the growth of our timber should exceed harvest; and our 

forests should be reservoirs of biological diversity and 

carbon” (Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-16).

As part of U.S. efforts to achieve sustainability, in 

1994, the Forest Service and the U.S. State Department 

organized a group of stakeholders to provide a forum for 

discussion of the Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators 

(C&I). The forum, officially chartered in 1999, is known 

as the Roundtable on Sustainable Forests. Although the 

Roundtable is not a decision-making body, it enables better decision-making through the sharing of information 

and perspectives among individuals representing diverse 

interests. More than 40 government and non-governmental organizations participate in the Roundtable including 

federal government agencies; tribal, state, and local units 

of government; private landowners and citizens; industries and businesses; conservation and environmental 

groups; regional and community-based organizations; 

as well as researchers and academics.

Stakeholders have disparate ideas about how to achieve 

sustainability. To facilitate the resolution of these differences, Roundtable meetings are convened by a non-profit 

organization that specializes in solving problems related 

to the environment. The Roundtable meets regularly to 

discuss what C&I mean for forest management and conservation in the United States, how data for the indicators 

are collected, and who is responsible for acquiring the 

data. One of the biggest challenges for stakeholders has 

been reaching agreement on interpretation of specific 

indicators and means for evaluating them.

Building consensus is both a great challenge and 

benefit of the Roundtable. Finding ways for stakeholders 

with varying perspectives to communicate is especially 

important in a country as diverse as the United States with 

forestlands that are owned and managed by different private and public entities. Roundtable stakeholders use the 

C&I framework to resolve shared problems across multiple jurisdictions and tenure arrangements. In this way, 

the Roundtable and the C&I framework bring disparate 

parties together to build a consensus for achieving sustainable forestry. Because of the Roundtable’s success, 

similar sustainability roundtables have been established 

concerning rangeland resources, minerals, and water.

Roundtable work is divided between two groups: 

a Communications and Outreach Work Group and 

a Technical Work Group. The former has sponsored 

workshops to inform state, county and other government officials, practitioners, as well as the general public 

about sustainable forest management and the criteria and 

indicators. The latter has held workshops for technical 

experts to identify regional and national data sets and 

information gaps. Workgroup members found that nine 

of the 28 Montreal Process biological indicators have 

been part of Forest Service sampling for 70 years (Robin 

Maille, 2000).

The Technical Workshops initiated production of a 

national report based on criteria and indicators addressing an array of environmental, social, and economic 

concerns. The report describes the current status and 

conditions of US forests, including trends in their 

health, productivity and use. Federal participants in 

the Roundtable formed the Sustainable Forest Data 

Working Group and collaborated with a variety of state, 

nongovernmental, and private institutions to compile 

the extensive report, known as the National Report on 

Sustainable Forests—2003 (USDA Forest Service, 2004) 

, which is a reference point for measuring national progress toward sustainable resource management.

Strategic Planning and the 

Montreal Process

Forest Service Strategic Planning has benefited 

tremendously from the efforts of the Roundtable on 

Sustainable Forests and the Montreal Process. In the 

year 2000, the Forest Service published a revision of 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 905

the strategic plan with linkages to the Montreal Process 

framework.

Comparing the strategic goals in the 2000 Strategic 

Plan Revision with the core principles of the Montreal 

Process shows an overlap between them. The four goals 

of the strategic plan and the three core Montreal Process 

Principles cover the social, ecological and economic 

values of sustainability (John Day, 2000). The three 

Montreal Process Principles are: maintenance of ecosystem integrity, social values related to the forest, and 

production of goods and services. Similarly, the four 

Forest Service strategic goals are ecosystem health, effective public service, multiple benefits to people, and 

scientific and technical assistance.

The connections between the Montreal Process and 

the strategic plan are more substantial with respect to 

indicators and the objectives. The Montreal Process 

Indicators provide links between strategic objectives 

and results-focused outcome measures. An example is 

the best way to illustrate the linkages: Montreal Process 

Criterion 1 relates to the conservation of biological diversity. One of the indicators for this criterion is the status 

of forest-dependent species at risk of not maintaining 

viable breeding populations. Goal 1 in the 2000 Revision 

is linked to Criterion 1. Goal 1 is the promotion of ecosystem health and conservation to sustain the Nation’s 

forests, grasslands, and watershed. One of the objectives 

associated with this goal is providing ecological conditions to sustain viable populations of native and desired 

non-native species. The measure for this objective is the 

status and/or trends in populations, habitats, and ecological conditions for selected species. Among the species 

tracked are the red-cockaded woodpecker and goldenwinged warbler as representatives of the Long-leaf and 

short-leaf pine ecosystems in the Southeast.

Despite the linkages between the C&I and the 2000 

Revision, measurement problems arose due to insufficient 

data. With respect to the example above, milestones set 

for meeting the objective were vague and data were not 

available for some indicator species. Another objective 

under Goal 1 concerning watershed health demonstrates 

similar problems with objectives in the 2000 Revision. 

The watershed health objective was designed to improve 

and protect watershed conditions. Progress toward the 

objective was not measurable because the Forest Service 

had not fully delineated watersheds and lacked a comprehensive monitoring protocol and program to assess 

watershed condition and function. Baseline data were 

also lacking for other long-term measures and milestones 

in the 2000 Strategic Plan Revision. This paucity of reliable baseline data left the agency incapable of credibly 

demonstrating accountability for the expected long-term 

results.

The 2000 Revision suffered from additional problems 

similar to its predecessor. Like the 1997 Strategic Plan, 

the 2000 Revision did not drive performance of agency 

programs because annual budget development and allocation remained independent of strategic planning. 

The disjuncture between budgets and strategic plans 

further hindered the Forest Service ability to demonstrate 

accountability and progress toward its mission of sustainable forest management.

Strategic Plan for Fiscal Years 

2004-2008

In order to address these performance accountability problems, the Strategic Planning and Resource 

Assessment Staff has completed a new Strategic Plan 

(USDA Forest Service, 2004) that strengthens linkages 

between science-based criteria and indicators derived 

from the Montreal Process C&I and the agency’s strategic 

goals and objectives. The objectives set forth in the new 

plan are largely based on contextual information from the 

National Report on Sustainable Forests—2003 and the 

2000 RPA Assessment, both of which use C&I to assess 

status and trends in forest sustainability in terms of the 

ecological, social, and economic environment.

Although designers of the Montreal Process C&I 

framework warn that it should not be used as a performance yardstick to evaluate a nation’s forest management 

program, using the systematic framework as a springboard for strategic planning assists the Forest Service in 

ensuring that it meets the varied aspects of sustainability 

and improves performance accountability. Adopting 

a C&I framework also provides an efficient means to 

communicate condition and trend information that forms 

a basis for forest policy dialogues. In other words, the 

C&I framework offers an effective vocabulary to engage 

stakeholders enabling them to work productively with 

different institutions and jurisdictions having mutual 

interests in sustainable forests. As figure 2 demonstrates, 

trend indicators and policy objectives function as crucial 

links in the Forest Service Performance Management 

System.

The new plan is organized around sustaining three 

conditions, which are parallel to the three main categories of the Montreal Process Criteria. The conditions 

are: sustain the health, productivity and diversity of the 

nation’s forests and grasslands; sustain a flow of goods 

and services from the nation’s forests and grasslands; and, 

sustain the organizational capacity to support conservation and management.

In order to prepare goals and objectives for the 

three conditions, the Strategic Planning Staff sought to 
906 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

identify key indicators of sustainability from the full 

suite of 67 Montreal Process Indicators. Particularly 

useful were the twenty core indicators adopted from the 

C&I by the Northeast Area Association of State Foresters 

(NAASF), an organization that represents the directors 

of state forestry agencies in the northeastern U.S. The 

20 indicators adopted by NAASF span the seven criteria 

of the Montreal Process framework. Each of the seven 

criteria is represented by one to three different indicators 

(Sourcebook on Criteria and Indicators, 2002). These 

indicators became the basis for drafting an initial set of 

goals and measurable policy objectives that address a 

limited set of high-priority issues, which emerged from 

analysis of the 2000 RPA Assessment and the National 

Report on Sustainable Forests—2003. As a result, policy 

objectives are linked to key social, economic, and ecological conditions. Taking a pragmatic approach, the 

staff made efforts to design measures to assess progress 

toward mission-critical objectives in order to have the 

capacity to demonstrate program effectiveness.

The mission-critical objectives reference the sustainability trend indicators upon which the objective 

is based. To determine if program management decisions and activities are advancing a particular policy 

objective, the Strategic Planning Staff refers to annual 

performance reports and to the RPA Assessment and 

the National Report on Sustainable Forests for baseline 

and trend data. Additionally, the new plan describes 

objectives in light of how it expects Forest Service 

programs to influence long-term trends. Potential interactions between various outcomes are also noted. 

These include adverse effects on carbon sequestration 

through controlled burns that aim to reduce hazardous 

fuels and improve forest health.

Plan Implementation—Driving the 

Budget

The integration of the Forest Service Strategic Plan 

and forest planning and how the result can inform development of the agency’s performance budget is very 

much a work in progress. The agency is developing integrated goal strategies and program-specific strategies 

(fig. 3, item #1) to implement the strategic plan. These 

strategies will inform strategic business plans (fig. 3, 

item #2) developed at the Region/Station/Area (R/S/A) 

level which will address national goals and the basic 

programs that are essential to mission delivery as they 

also address objectives from forest and other unit plans. 

The R/S/A business plans will also propose funding 

needs to accomplish the proposed program. Each year, 

upon receipt of executive priorities, the R/S/As will 

request budgets to best meet the priorities while also 

addressing the needs detailed in their business plans. 

Their business plans will be updated to become a rolling 

three year framework for accomplishing their proposed 

program. During the first quarter of each calendar year 

the submitted requests will be compiled into a proposed 

performance budget and a tradeoff analysis undertaken 

(fig. 3, item #3) to enable agency leaders to choose the 

emphases to be included in the performance budget (fig. 

3, item #4) that is submitted for funding through USDA 

and the Office of Management and Budget.

Assessing Results—Annually 

and Over Time

As proposed, a new Performance Accountability 

System (PAS) will come in to play as the agency annual 

Figure 2. The Performance Management System integrates the 

Strategic Plan, Budget, and Performance and Accountability 

Report.

Figure 3. The Integrated Planning and Budget Process ensure 

Plan Goals drive the Budget.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 907

performance plan allocates targets and funds. It will enable agency managers have a ‘line of sight’ understanding 

of how each project contributes to achieving strategic 

plan goals and contributes to sustainability (fig. 4). They 

also will be able to track accomplishment of work and 

expenditures during the course of the program execution year. To provide this capability, the PAS will draw 

information from the agency’s databases of reference to 

provide each manager a frequently-updated ‘dashboard’ 

so the status of programs within their purview may be 

monitored. In addition, as the end of the execution year 

approaches, data from these databases will be electronically assembled to inform the agency Performance and 

Accountability Report and to assess the performance 

of the agency’s Senior Executive Service cadre and GS 

14-15 managers and supervisors.

In the longer term, the agency RPA Assessment and 

the included trend indicator changes will be designed to 

provide information regarding whether annual investments and their resulting activities on forest and grassland 

habitats are moving these lands toward or away from 

sustainability, as it is currently defined.

Conclusions

Strengthening the linkages between the Forest Service 

Strategic Plan and the Montreal Process C&I improves 

the agency’s capacity to achieve its mission of sustainable 

resource management in several ways. First, the Montreal 

Process framework provides stakeholders with accepted 

sustainability indicators analogous to national economic 

indicators. These indicators, while recognized to be imperfect and in some cases infeasible to measure, offer a 

common vocabulary for effective collaboration among 

stakeholders. Second, the framework focuses scarce 

resources on work directly related to accomplishment 

of the Forest Service mission of sustainable resource 

management. Third, the framework offers trend indicators. In conjunction with annual performance reports, 

trend indicators enable the Forest Service to measure 

performance, which can then be evaluated during the 

periodic RPA Assessments and other national sustainability reports. Finally, these measured outcomes allow 

the Forest Service to demonstrate effectiveness in delivering its mission and to improve its capacity to achieve 

sustainable resource management in the future.

The United States is not alone in facing the challenge 

of sustainable resource management. Problems such 

as population growth, subdivision of open spaces, and 

wild land fires confront most of the 150 nations that are 

employing C&I to assess forest conditions. Employing 

C&I to simply assess conditions, however, is not 

enough to effectively influence policies and decisions 

to achieve sustainable resource management. Countries 

must further integrate C&I into their national forest 

programs. Like the United States, these countries are 

likely to benefit from the adaptation of C&I to strategic 

plans to meet the challenges of sustainable resource 

management.

References

Brundtland, G.H. 1987. Our Common Future: World 

Commission on Environment and Development. Oxford 

University Press.

Day, John. 2000. Opportunities to Use Criteria and Indicators In 

Evaluating the Achievements of the Forest Service Strategic 

Plan (2000 Revision). Forest Service Region 10.

Floyd, Donald W. 2002. Forest Sustainability: The History, 

the Challenge, the Promise. The Forest History Society, 

Durham, North Carolina.

Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resource Planning Act of 

1974. Public Law 93-378. Approved August 17, 1974.

Government Performance and Results Act of 1993. Public Law 

103-62. August 3, 1993.

Meadows, Donella. 1998. Indicators and information systems 

for sustainable development: a report to the Balaton Group. 

Hartland Four Corners, VT: The Sustainability Institute.

MPWG, Montreal Process Working Group. 1999. Criteria and 

indicators for the conservation and sustainable management 

of temperate and boreal forests. 2nd ed. [http://www.mpci.

org/meetings/ci/ci_e.html].

MPWG, Montreal Process Working Group. 1999. Forests 

for the future: Montreal Process criteria and indicators. 

[http://www.mpci.org/].

Maille, Robin. 2000. USDA Forest Service International 

Programs Newsletter, “Sustainability Roundtable Buildings 

Partnerships, No. 5.

Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-16, Environmental 

Policy on International Desertification, Forest Conservation 

and Fresh Water Security, The White House, November 

5, 1993.

USDA Forest Service 1997 GPRA Strategic Plan. [http://www.

fs.fed.us/intro/gpra97.html]

Figure 4. Performance Accountability System Scorecard 

provides ‘line of sight’ accountability.
908 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

USDA, Forest Service, 2000 USDA Forest Service Strategic 

Plan (2000 Revision). [http://www2.srs.fs.fed.us/strategicplan]

USDA Forest Service, 2001 RPA Assessment of Forest and 

Range Lands. FS-687. Washington, DC.

USDA Forest Service, State and Private Forestry, Northeast 

Area. 2002. Sourcebook on Criteria and Indicators of Forest 

Sustainability in the Northeastern Area. NA-TP-03-02.

U.S. Roundtable on Sustainable Forests, 2001 Roundtable 

on Sustainable Forests: criteria and indicators technical 

workshop results. [http://www.sustainableforests.net/

C&I_workshops/ci_index.html]

USDA Forest Service, 2004 National report on sustainable forests--2003. FS-766. Washington, DC: USDA Forest Service. 

Available at: http://www.fs.fed.us/research/sustain/

USDA Forest Service, 2004 USDA Forest Service Strategic 

Plan for Fiscal Years 2004-2008.

[http://www2.srs.fs.fed.us/strategicplan]
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 909

Introduction

The state of Oregon is located in the northwest corner 

of the United States. It is about 62 million acres in size, 

28 million acres of which is forestland. The Cascade 

mountain range runs north to south bisecting the state into 

two major climatic zones. The west side of the state has a 

relatively moist Mediterranean climate while the east side 

is drier with forests only at the higher elevations. On the 

east side about 75 percent of all forestlands are capable 

of producing 20 to 84 cubic feet per acre per year. In 

western Oregon more than 85 percent of the forestlands 

are capable of producing 85 to 225 cubic feet per acre per 

year. About 64 percent of the forests in western Oregon 

are dominated by Douglas-fir. East of the Cascades, lower 

elevation forests are mostly ponderosa pine, while the 

forests at the higher elevations are a mix of conifer species. Oregon’s forestland ownership is about 60 percent 

public, and 40 percent private.

Oregon’s Forest Policy Makers

The Oregon Board of Forestry is a quasi-legislative 

body appointed by the Governor to make policy for 

Oregon’s forests. The Oregon Board of Forestry has 

relied on assessments of forest conditions and outputs 

to make policy since 1911. Early assessments and 

policy documents were mostly concerned with economic 

outputs, especially timber production. However, starting 

with the conflicts over endangered species in the 1990s, 

the Board’s focus has shifted toward examining a wider 

range of outputs provided by the forest.

Recent polling shows that most people in Oregon 

want a balance of environmental, social, and economic 

goods and services produced from the forest, and natural 

resource decision-makers, like the Board of Forestry, are 

left with the task of reconciling the conflicts and explaining their decisions to the public. The Board needed to 

articulate a common theme that makes sense to the public 

and explains decisions on forest resources, and explains 

the trade-offs among values and resources that must be 

considered in decision-making.

Sustainability

Sustainability is emerging worldwide as a unifying 

concept in forest management. Sustainability is meeting the needs of the present without compromising the 

ability of future generations to meet their needs. People 

understand the basic concept of sustainability: when we 

use wood and paper, we should not damage the forest’s 

ability to grow trees in the future; we should not destroy 

the other, non-commodity values of the forest; and we 

should not consume wood and paper faster than trees 

can grow back. Due to the public’s understanding and 

acceptance, there is power in the ideas and language of 

Implementation of the Montreal Process: An Oregon Case 

Study

J. E. Brown, Governor’s Resources Advisor, Governor’s Office, Salem, OR

Abstract—The state of Oregon has about 28 million acres of forestland. The west side 

of the state is dominated by Douglas-fir forests, and most of the east side forests are occupied by Ponderosa pines or mixed conifers. The Oregon Board of Forestry is charged 

with making policy for Oregon’s forests. It has relied on quantitative assessments of forest 

conditions for many years, but the Board’s recent focus has shifted toward the concepts 

of sustainability and examining a wide range of outputs. The Board has adopted the 

Montreal Process criteria and indicators as a framework to use to measure and communicate about sustainability. Many indicators have been adopted for use in monitoring 

forest conditions and evaluating policy changes. Organizing around the seven criteria 

of sustainability provides a consistent framework that allows us create a continuous 

improvement process. Planning, implementing, monitoring, and evaluating with the same 

framework has the advantage of aligning programs to work together and will allow us 

to learn and adjust our strategies more rapidly. We have found the Montreal Process 

to be a useful framework for developing forest policies and the necessary actions that 

contribute to social, environmental, and economic sustainability at any scale.
910 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

sustainability. The concept is broad and inclusive, and 

using the ideas of sustainability can significantly reduce 

the dynamics of confrontation.

The challenge became what framework to use to measure and communicate about sustainability. The Oregon 

Department of Forestry (ODF) has adopted the criteria 

and indicators developed through the Montreal Process. 

The criteria provides a framework that describes the goals 

of sustainability. The pieces we want to sustain are biological diversity, the productive capacity of the forest, the 

health of the ecosystem, soil and water resources, global 

carbon cycles, and socioeconomic benefits. And, we need 

a legal, economic, and institutional framework capable of 

providing those values. Several different indicators are 

used to describe and measure each criterion.

The Oregon Department of Forestry’s forest assessment process generally includes data collection, analysis, 

evaluation, and policy development. In 2000 ODF 

completed a “First Approximation Report” (www.odf.

state.or.us/DIVISIONS/resource_policy/resource_planning/far/far/default.asp) using the criteria and indicators 

of the Montreal Process. This was the first step in the 

Assessment Process, completed with the goal of gathering the data currently available to measure the criteria and 

indicators, and identifying what additional data is needed 

to understand conditions in Oregon’s forests. ODF has 

selected a subset of indicators from among the 67 of the 

Montreal Process to use as the primary tool to monitor 

and evaluate conditions and trends of Oregon’s forests.

In 2001 the Oregon Board of Forestry co-sponsored a 

symposium with Oregon State University to learn about 

the state of knowledge pertaining to each of the seven 

criteria of sustainability. The symposium provided information developed during the analysis and evaluation 

phases of the assessment process. Information from the 

symposium and the First Approximation Report was used 

to inform decision makers about current conditions and 

potential barriers to sustaining forest outputs. After the 

symposium, the Board convened a workgroup of legislators, landowners, NGOs and other interested parties to 

begin discussing policy options about how to manage 

Oregon’s forests. The Board used a series of follow-up 

public work sessions to complete the policy phase. The 

following sections illustrate the practicality, application, 

and utility of the Montreal Process.

Using the Indicators of 

Sustainability

The Oregon Department of Forestry has adopted a 

“core” set of indicators from the Montreal Process to 

use as a tool to monitor and evaluate the conditions and 

trends on forestland in Oregon. The primary objective of 

the project is to collect data on a set of indicators that is 

large enough to provide the most important information 

described by the criteria from the Montreal Process, yet 

small enough to allow efficient assessment and tradeoff 

analysis to be completed in a timely fashion for policy 

analysis. We want to collect a mix of spatial and nonspatial data that can be used to display the condition of 

Oregon’s forests at multiple scales (in other words, the 

ecoregion, county, or watershed scale) depending on the 

policy question. Examples of the data are included in the 

following sections.

Conservation of Biological Diversity

We are using a coarse filter approach to describe 

biological diversity. The available information includes 

a mixture of spatial data generated from satellite imagery and ground based sample data. The spatial data can 

provide locationally specific information to enhance watershed analysis capabilities, while the plot data provides 

an accurate way to monitor change over time.

Indicators used to describe biodiversity include:

Forest types,

Successional stages (forest size classes),

Area by forest type in reserved area categories, and

The status of rare, threatened, endangered species.

Other things being equal, maintaining a broad range 

of seral stages can enhance forest biodiversity. As shown 

in figure 1, even in the heavily harvested Douglas-fir 

forests of western Oregon, a broad range of size classes, 

and therefore seral stages, still exist. Over the past few 

decades Oregon has moved toward greater protection 

of water, wildlife, and other environmental resources in 

the management of its forests. The “reserve” strategy is 

employed on forestland when it is closed to commercial 

timber harvest by law, regulation, or forest plan requirement. The primary purpose of the reserve strategy is to 

set the land aside for other values than the economic 

value of wood production, namely, watershed protection, 

wildlife habitat, and scenic and aesthetic values. Trees are 

sometimes harvested in reserved forests, but only when 

this harvest is incidental to other activities and deemed 

to benefit the non-wood production values. About 31 

percent of Oregon’s forestland is managed under a 

reserve strategy. In addition to the reserves, a “multiresource” strategy is employed on about 33 percent of 

Oregon’s forestland. These management allocations are 

intended to yield a variety of resources including timber. 

However, it includes lands on which timber harvest is 

balanced with non-wood production values by means of 

state regulations, forest plan, agency policy, or owner 

objective. Multi-resource lands represent a wide range of 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 911

management techniques and intensities, aimed at producing moderate to high levels of many social, economic, 

and environmental benefits. Modeling studies have 

shown that keeping these policy options in place will 

dramatically increase the amount of older forests over 

time.

Maintenance of Productive Capacity of 

Forest Ecosystems

Several sources of data are used to create estimates 

of whether the economic productive capacity is being 

maintained.

Indicators used to describe productive capacity include:

Forest land available for timber production,

Growing stock of merchantable and nonmerchantable 

species, and

Annual timber harvest.

As the public land in reserves and multi-resource 

allocations has grown over time, the amount of timber 

that can be harvested sustainably from these forests has 

diminished. As shown in figure 2, the decline in both the 

sustainable harvest level and the actual timber harvest on 

public lands. Under the current land allocation rules, the 

•

•

•

sustainable harvest has dropped to about 16 percent of 

the forest’s biological potential and actual timber harvest 

from public forestlands has declined to about 8 percent 

of the biological potential.

A stable forestland base is needed to sustain all forest 

values. Between 1953 and the mid-1980s Oregon lost 

about 20 percent of its private timberland to development. 

The rapid development on rural lands caused policy 

makers to create Oregon’s Land Use Planning laws and 

to restrict rural development on forestland. Tracking the 

change in forestland available for timber production has 

allowed evaluation of the effectiveness of changes in the 

Figure 1. Area of Forest Type of Size Class.

Figure 2. Timber Harvest on Public Forestland in Oregon.
912 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

policies designed to limit development. Each successive 

change has had a positive affect on maintaining forestland 

for commercial purposes, and the rate of forestland conversion has decreased. Unlike timber harvests on public 

lands, timber harvests from private lands have remained 

relatively stable, and harvest levels are close to both the 

sustainable level and the biological potential.

Maintenance and Enhancement of 

Long-Term Multiple Socio-Economic 

Benefits to Meet the Needs of Societies

Resources that have little or diminishing value to people will inevitably be converted to other uses. Therefore, 

in order to develop an overall measure of sustainable forest management, it is critical to understand the diversity 

of values that people find in forests, and also to understand how those values and priorities change over time. 

The indicators for socioeconomic benefits are designed 

to examine the total output of some of the most important 

items including wood products production, recreation, 

employment, and community well-being.

Indicators used to describe socio-economic benefits 

include:

Value of wood products production, including value 

added through downstream processing,

Area and percent of forestland managed for recreation 

and tourism,

Employment in the forest sector, and

Viability of forest dependent communities.

Oregon’s economy has historically been built on 

natural resource industries, especially timber. The forest 

sector is very important to the state; it accounts for $12.8 

billion in total industrial output, which is 6.9 percent of 

the state total. The forest sector is even more important 

in most rural areas. In three counties the forest industry 

accounts for more than 80 percent of the traded sector, 

and in 15 counties it is greater than 50 percent (2001 

data).

Oregon’s forest sector employment declined rapidly 

during the recession of the 1980s and because of the 

reductions in federal timber supply in the early 1990s. 

Total forest sector employment dropped by about 19 

percent between 1980 and 1995, but has been relatively 

stable since then.

Average earnings per job are another indicator of 

the importance of the forest sector to local communities. While wages in the state have increased over time, 

many of the timber dependent counties in Oregon have 

not recovered from economic down-turns in the 1980s 

and early 1990s.

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•

Many of the timber dependent counties also have 

very high unemployment rates and other indications of 

economic and social distress.

Maintenance of Forest Ecosystem 

Health

The major forest health problem in Oregon is related to 

changes in the historic fire cycles. Since the early part of 

the 20th century, human use and management of forests 

have altered the historical relationship between fire and 

forest. Past timber harvesting practices and a century 

of aggressive suppression of fires have fundamentally 

changed the makeup and structure of some of Oregon’s 

forests, particularly in parts of the drier forest types in 

southern Oregon and east of the Cascades. A buildup of 

fuels in the form of needles, branches, logs, and living 

trees is at the heart of the problem.

Indicators used to describe forest ecosystem health 

include:

Area and Percent of Forest Affected by Processes or 

Agents Beyond the Range of Historic Variation.

Information on fire condition classes is currently 

available from the US Forest Service. The data is in a 

spatial format and can be combined with forest type and 

size class data sets to provide an estimate of the spatial 

extent of the forest health problems and the forest types 

that are most affected. Many of the land allocations designed to produce older forest conditions are at risk of 

uncharacteristically severe wildfire. More than 60 percent 

of the wilderness areas and late-successional reserves in 

Oregon are in areas with moderate or severely altered fire 

regimes. In 2002 more that 8 percent of the total area in 

reserves burned in large wildfires.

Policy Development

The Oregon Board of Forestry has adopted forest 

sustainability as their primary goal. Their mission is to 

“lead Oregon in implementing policies and programs 

that promote environmentally, economically, and socially 

sustainable management of Oregon’s 28 million acres 

of public and private forests.” Their vision for Oregon’s 

forests includes:

Healthy forests providing a sustainable flow of 

environmental, economic, and social, outputs and 

benefits.

Public and private landowners willingly making investments to create healthy forests.

Coordinated statewide forest resource policies among 

Oregon’s natural resource agencies.

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3.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 913

A Board of Forestry recognized as an impartial deliberative body operating openly and in the public 

interest.

Citizens that understand, accept, and support sustainable forestry; and make informed decisions that 

contribute to achievement of the vision of 2003 

Forestry Program for Oregon (http://www.oregonforestry.org/fpfo/2003/).

Adequate funding for the Department of Forestry to 

efficiently and cost-effectively accomplish the mission 

and strategies of the Board of Forestry and department 

personnel policies that encourage and recognize employees, allowing them to meet their full potential in 

providing excellent public service.

To accomplish this mission and vision the Board has 

adopted seven strategies developed from the criteria of 

the Montreal Process. Under each of these strategies 

they have articulated priorities and actions that if accomplished they feel will lead to the achievement of 

the strategy and ultimately to sustaining forest outputs 

and values.

In consultation with the Board and other policy makers, Oregon’s forest cluster has developed a Natural 

Resources Strategy for Oregon’s Prosperity. It is a 9-

point Plan that builds on the concepts of sustainability 

and Oregon’s strengths. The nine points are:

Build economic strategies on Oregon’s environmental 

performance, for example,

The Oregon Plan for Salmon and Watersheds – improved with federal agency “buy-in”

Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board and Ballot 

Measure 66 funds

Oregon Sustainability Act of 2001

Oregon Conservation Incentives Act of 2001

Forestry Program for Oregon – Sustainability

National Fire Plan & 10-year Comprehensive 

Strategy

Statewide conservation strategies – to be developed

Renew investments in education, research, tech transfer for innovators, new knowledge-based resource 

businesses, continual improvement in existing businesses

4.

5.

6.

1.

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•

•

•

2.

Differentiate products for market advantage “Brand 

Oregon”

Pioneer Innovation – high-tech, information systems, 

biosciences, marketing applied through natural resource clusters

Increase public investments for private contributions 

of public resource services, for example, salmon 

habitats, natural heritage protection

Expand natural resources trade, exports to create 

wealth

Solve problems through proactive, state, local-led, 

collaboration for natural resources sustainability (En 

Libra)

Strengthen partnerships with, roles for federal land 

managers – active adaptive management of federal 

lands for conservation and sustainable economic prosperity

Exert bold leadership in Western Governor’s 

Association

Ultimately, the Oregon Department of Forestry hopes 

that using and implementing the concepts of sustainability will allow us to maintain the “social license” 

needed to practice forest management. We believe there 

is power in communicating though the language of sustainability. The framework from the Montreal Process is 

very broad and inclusive and has allowed ODF to have 

a more structured public dialogue about the issues and 

goals that are important to Oregonians. We have also 

found the indicators of sustainability to be a useful tool 

to tell the “stories” of sustainability in a language that 

the public understands and to answer questions about 

how Oregon’s forests are doing at producing the range 

of values important to the public.

Organizing around the seven criteria of sustainability provides a consistent framework that allows us to 

create a continuous improvement process. Planning, 

implementing, monitoring, and evaluating with the same 

framework has the advantage of aligning programs to 

work together and will allow us to learn and adjust our 

strategies more rapidly. We have found the Montreal 

Process to be a useful framework for developing forest policies and the necessary actions that contribute 

to social, environmental, and economic sustainability 

at any scale.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

9.
914 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

This paper will provide perspectives of Canada’s 

experiences in applying Criteria and Indicators (C&I) 

to measure progress towards Sustainable Forest 

Management (SFM) at the National, Regional (Provincial) 

and local levels. SFM is rooted in Bruntland’s concept 

of Sustainable Development and is about providing for 

present forest-based needs without compromising future 

options.

Canada: A Forest Nation

Canada’s forests are essential to the long-term well 

being of Canada’s communities, economy, and environment. Almost half of Canada’s land base is forested 

- representing 10 percent of the global forest. Recently 

released information from Canada’s Forest Inventory 

2001 indicates that there are 401.5 million hectares of forest and other wooded lands in Canada. About 143 million 

hectares of forestland are considered to be accessible and 

most likely to be subject to forest management activities. 

Harvesting takes place on about 1 million hectares each 

year. Most of the forest (93 percent) is publicly owned, 

the rest is on the private property of over 425,000 landowners. Over 300 communities are directly dependent on 

the economic use of the forest resource, and their work 

supports Canada’s 20 percent share in global forest trade 

of forest products. In recent years Canada’s annual positive balance of trade in forest products has been over $30 

billion. In 1999 wages for the forest sector amounted to 

$12 billion. All this activity in turn brings domestic and 

international attention to our forest management choices 

and the implications of those choices on the condition of 

local and global environmental conditions and the social 

and economic circumstance over time.

Canada recognizes the multitude of forest benefits 

it enjoys as well as its role as steward of 10 percent of 

the worlds forests. Canada accepts its responsibility to 

maintain its forests in a vital state and to manage them 

in a sustainable manner. But, pressures on the forest are 

increasing; demands for increased access to the forest 

for timber extraction to meet the needs of international 

markets are often seen to be in conflict with the values 

of other forest users.

Canada’s Commitment to SFM

Canada and the international community recognized 

the importance of SFM and the need for indicators in 

1992 at the United Nations Conference on Environment 

and Development (UNCED) with the adoption of a 

Statement of Forest Principles. The concept was embodied in Chapter 11 of the conference’s action plan, Agenda 

21 and countries around the world began to demonstrate 

their commitment on the ground.

Canadians are demanding more information, more 

options, more involvement in decision-making, and 

more equitable sharing of benefits, and the marketplace 

seeks assurances that forest management in Canada is 

sustainable. To meet these challenges, managers and decision makers need tools to demonstrate progress toward 

sustainable forest management (SFM).

Criteria and Indicators (C&I) is one such tool. C&I 

provide a science-based framework to define and measure Canada’s progress in the sustainable management 

of its forests. Criteria represent forest values that society 

wants to enhance or sustain, while the indicators identify 

scientific factors to assess the state of the forests and 

measure progress over time. The C&I enable a common 

understanding of what is meant by SFM. Collectively, 

they provide a framework for reporting on the state of 

Canada’s Experience in Applying C&I to Measure Progress 

Towards SFM—Perspectives from the National, Regional 

and Local Levels.

John E. Hall, D. Phil (Oxon.) RPF, Science Advisor, Criteria and Indicators, Canadian Forest 

Service, Natural Resources Canada

S. R. J. Bridge, Criteria & Indicators Policy Advisor, Canadian Forest Service, Natural 

Resources Canada

Brian D. Haddon, B. Sc. F. Manager, Statistical Services, Canadian Forest Service, Natural 

Resources Canada
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 915

forests, forest management, and achievements in SFM, 

by identifying those elements of the forest ecosystems, 

and related social and economic systems that should be 

sustained or enhanced.

Canada’s Political Structure with 

Respect to Forest Management

To better understand Canada’s experience with C&I 

at the national to local levels it is helpful (if not essential) to be aware of Canada’s political structure and 

the various roles and responsibilities of each level of 

government with respect to forests. Canada is a federation of 10 Provinces and 3 Territories in which the 

Provinces and Territories have jurisdiction over forest 

on provincial and territorial crown land. Each Province 

and Territory has its own set of statutes, policies and 

regulations to govern the management of its forests. A 

broad spectrum of users – the public, forest industries, 

Aboriginal groups and environmental organizations – are 

often consulted to ensure that recreational, cultural, 

wildlife and economic values are incorporated into 

forest management planning and decision making. The 

federal government’s role in forestry pertains to such 

areas as research, trade and commerce, international 

affairs, the environment, pesticide regulation, training 

and Aboriginal Affairs and the management of federally owned lands.

The Canadian Council of 

Forest Ministers (CCFM)

There has been a long tradition of cooperation between 

the federal and provincial governments in forestry matters. The creation of the Canadian Council of Forest 

Ministers (CCFM) in 1985 has provided an important 

forum for the federal, provincial and territorial governments responsible for forests to work cooperatively to 

address major areas of common interest. The CCFM 

provides leadership on national and international issues 

such as C&I for SFM and sets direction for the stewardship and sustainable management of Canada’s forests.

Canada’s National Forest 

Strategy (NFS)

The CCFM initiated Canada’s National Forest 

Strategy (NFS) to establish the vision and goals for 

Canada’s forests. In recognizing the complexity of 

SFM, each NFS is a product of an iterative process that 

involves many Canadians representing a broad diversity 

of backgrounds, interests, and expertise and forest values 

to describe Canada’s commitment to SFM. These values 

and commitment to SFM are enshrined in the 1992, 1997 

and 2003 National Forest Strategies. One of the commitments of the NFS is to develop and use C&I framework 

for SFM. Canada’s approach to the development of C&I 

is based on collaboration internationally through its 

involvement with the Montréal Process and nationally 

through the CCFM.

Linkages: International to 

Local

Canada recognized at an early stage that the successful 

development and implementation of C&I would depend 

on the establishment and maintenance of strong linkages 

among those responsible for international, national, provincial and local perspectives. In figure 1, the linkages 

among the various levels of organizations involved in 

Canada’s C&I for SFM are mapped. The international, 

national, regional (or Provincial) and local levels are 

linked and this paper will outline examples of how the 

national C&I are woven into the network of Canada’s 

SFM activities.

National Use of C&I

For the purposes of this paper, the linkages at the 

national level (fig. 1) can best be organized under two 

general themes; either Canada’s C&I linkages to National 

and International Reporting or Canada’s C&I linkages 

to Policy fora.

Figure 1. Canada’s Criteria and Indicators Linkages.
916 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Reporting National Progress 

toward SFM

CCFM & National C&I Reporting

The release of the Canadian Council of Forest 

Ministers (CCFM) Framework of C&I for SFM in 

1995, and subsequent reports in 1997 and 2000, were 

important steps in implementing Canada’s commitments 

in the national forest strategies, as well as the forestry 

commitments made at UNCED. In 2003, after broad 

public consultation, the CCFM released its revised C&I 

framework of 6 criteria and 46 indicators. The CCFM 

have agreed to produce their next C&I report in 2005. The 

sharing of information and resources between jurisdictions and stakeholders also helps to build capacity and 

reduce reporting costs. The CCFM C&I also provide a 

framework for standardizing national forest data collection and the framework has been used to guide national 

research planning.

The CFS is now engaged with its CCFM partners to 

prepare and produce the next C&I report for release in 

September 2005. This report will provide information 

on Canada’s forests to domestic and international audiences to help demonstrate Canada’s progress in SFM. 

The report will also contribute to Canada’s commitments 

in the 2003 National Forest Strategy to establish better 

capacity for credible and authoritative reporting on C&I. 

Report preparation and production will engage staff from 

across the CFS, other federal departments and agencies, 

and provincial and territorial forest management agencies. The 2005 report will provide the public and decision 

makers with more information, increasing the range of 

options available for using the forest resource and hopefully leading to more involvement in decision-making by 

the public and a more equitable sharing of benefits.

Montréal Process and National C&I 

Reporting

With UNCED, the potential impact of global perspectives on local decision making for SFM was clearly 

understood by Canada. Canada joined the Working 

Group on C&I for the Conservation and Sustainable 

Management of the Temperate and Boreal Forests (est. 

June 1994). This working group, known widely as the 

Montréal Process (MP), is made up of 11 other countries 

that together represent 90 percent of the world’s boreal 

and temperate forests. These countries agreed to work 

together to develop a common suite of measures (C&I) 

to use in reporting national progress to SFM. Canada is 

committed to the MP and collects a considerable amount 

of data and information to support the indicators through 

the CCFM. The C&I of the MP and the CCFM show 

considerable alignment in the values each has identified 

as important to measure progress toward SFM. This 

compatibility consequently allows Canada to report its 

national progress towards SFM using the CCFM C&I 

framework. Canada’s C&I framework was released in 

1995 and national reports were produced in 1997 and 

2000.

In September 2003, the MP member countries reaffirmed their commitment to implement the MP C&I and 

agreed to review and revise the MP C&I. Membership 

in the MP is part of Canada’s overall commitment to 

promote SFM. The Montréal Process provides an international forum for collaboration, including catalyzing 

similar national efforts and promoting a shared view 

about what constitutes SFM and how to measure it. The 

exchange of information and experience has enabled the 

member countries to identify common goals for action, 

consolidate technical know-how related to indicator 

measurement and data collection, foster bilateral and 

regional cooperation among members and enhance national capacity to report on SFM.

National Coordination of Data 

Collection and Management

The CCFM recently adopted an operating framework for better management of its activities. The core 

business of CCFM is to stimulate the development of 

policies and initiatives for the promotion of sustainable 

forest management in Canada. The activities of the 

CCFM are organized around five Strategic Directions: 

International Issues, Sustainable Forestry, Information 

and Knowledge, Science and Technology, and Forest 

Communities. The National Forest Information System 

(NFIS) and the National Forestry Database Program 

(NFDP) have aided the CCFM in its goal to accomplish 

a national and international forest information strategy. 

Specifically, the NFDP has established a comprehensive 

national forestry database to develop a public information program and to provide forestry information to 

the federal, provincial and territorial policy processes, 

while NFIS has built on existing databases and extensions to those databases to meet Canada’s provincial, 

national and international reporting requirements on 

forest sustainability. Responsibility for reporting on 

the CCFM C&I now clearly rests with the NFDP. 

The new operating framework permits and promotes 

enhanced coordination of the various national information and knowledge initiatives. The challenge now is 

to ensure that these initiatives continue to work closely 

together to acquire the necessary forest information and 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 917

establish the systems to better collect, manage, and 

provide Canadians with more ready and access to the 

data relevant to national C&I.

Consolidating Reporting to 

National and International 

Efforts Using C&I

Canada was the first MP member country to attempt 

to fully report using its national C&I, and was the first 

to complete a review of its national C&I framework. 

Exploring options to consolidate reporting on various 

initiatives and to various fora is a national action item 

outlined in the 2003 NFS. Canada already uses information gathered for the CCFM C&I to report on the MP 

C&I. Now options are being explored to consolidate 

reporting on other initiatives and fora. This includes looking at whether the national C&I can be used to report on 

the United Nations Forum on Forests (UNFF) Proposals 

for action (Pfa), the United Nations Convention on 

Biological Diversity (CBD) program of work, the Global 

Forest Resource Assessment (FRA) and the NFS commitments for action.

National Links to Other Federal 

Government Indicator Reporting 

Initiatives

As part of its efforts to consolidate reporting and be 

the authoritative source of national information on the 

forest sector, the CFS also participates and contributes 

to indicator initiatives led by other federal departments 

that are seeking to develop and report on indicators of 

sustainable development. Currently, CFS is engaged in 

the development of social and economic indicators of 

sustainable resource-based community development. The 

CFS is also engaged in initiatives lead by other federal 

departments seeking to develop and report on forestry 

indicators. Environment Canada has initiated a process 

to develop the Canadian Biodiversity Index (CBI) 

to assess the status of biodiversity in all of Canada’s 

ecosystems. The proposed use of this index is to report 

on Canada’s progress towards targets agreed to by the 

Convention on Biodiversity (CBD). The CFS has been 

involved in developing the draft framework to ensure 

links with existing forest biodiversity indicators. In addition, the National Roundtable on the Environment and 

the Economy’s (NRTEE) Environmental Sustainable 

Development Indicators Initiative recently developed 

a set of indicators to report on Canada’s natural capital 

that includes an indicator on forests. The CFS wants to 

ensure that the best available data on forests are used and 

reduce duplication of data collection.

Using C&I to Guide National 

Level Research

The C&I are being used to help guide national level 

research in Canada related to SFM. Recently, the CFS 

has begun research on public satisfaction in forest 

management practices and defining forest-dependent 

communities in direct response to knowledge gaps identified through the C&I process. Also, Canada’s Sustainable 

Forest Management Network (SFMN), a part of Canada’s 

Network of Centers of Excellence (NCE) established in 

1995, supports university-based research and innovation 

that is relevant and necessary to sustain Canada’s forests 

and forestry-dependent communities. The SFMN refers 

to the CCFM C&I framework as one tool in identifying 

SFM research needs.

C&I Reports Contribute to 

National Policy and Decisionmaking

International Trade

International competition in forest products is strong, 

forestland use pressures are increasing, and there are 

uncertain impacts on Canada’s forests due to climate 

change. Within this context, C&I reports provide an effective tool for government to provide the international 

audience with a clearer insight into the positive impact 

the many changes made in Canada’s forest sector have 

had on SFM and thereby contribute to strengthening 

Canada’s SFM image in the market place.

Federal Social Agenda

While pressure on the forest resource is increasing, 

Canadians also want a vibrant 21st century economy and 

they see forestry as an important part of that economy. 

The government has committed to enhancing rural development by finding opportunities to add greater value 

to natural resources. The government also wants to 

reduce the economic gap between Aboriginal and nonAboriginal communities. This means better economic 

opportunities for Aboriginals in communities, a higher 

quality of life, more economic self-reliance and better 

education and work-force skills. Since about 80 percent 

of Aboriginal communities are located in forests, the 

forest sector should be an integral part of achieving 
918 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

these goals. Canada’s national C&I framework features a 

number of indicators directly related to these goals which 

may offer a tool to assist in determining progress toward 

these goals to better guide policy decisions.

Sub-National Use of C&I

Provincial and Territorial Use of C&I

In Canada, forest management responsibilities rest, 

for the large part, with the Provincial and Territorial 

governments. These jurisdictions clearly express their 

collective support to the national CCFM C&I process and 

to the National Forest Strategy. Guided by these national 

frameworks, each Province and Territory continues to 

create ways to improve their on-going support to their 

national level C&I commitments. Each jurisdiction is 

also responsible to determine how best to integrate and 

link C&I into their own management responsibilities to 

meet their particular circumstances and needs. In the 

following summary of the benefits being accrued by 

each provincial and territorial government to its forest 

management and accountability, responsibilities are 

evident as the linkages to C&I increase. These benefits 

include better evaluation of policies and regulations, 

increased capacity and reduced reporting costs, more 

meaningful public input into planning and improved forest practices towards SFM. Each province and territory 

is involved in the national C&I through the CCFM and 

with local level issues through their forest management 

planning processes and, where applicable, with their 

model forest(s). The provinces and territories dedicate 

expertise and resources to support national task forces 

for the development, reporting and data collection and 

management for C&I.

From the results of an ad hoc, informal survey conducted by the authors of provincial C&I contacts, most 

provinces and territories have, in their own way, begun to 

incorporate C&I into the sustainable management of their 

forests. Four provinces now have legislation or provincial 

strategies that require the use of indicators in assessing 

progress toward SFM. In some cases the legislation or 

strategies are explicitly linked to the CCFM C&I framework, using the criteria to help define SFM provincially 

or to help identify important strategic directions and values to which indicators should relate. In at least one case, 

a province has developed a resource evaluation policy 

to support its legislation, which outlines a provincial 

framework of C&I based on the CCFM C&I.

Reporting on progress is often done at both the provincial level and the Forest Management Unit (FMU) 

level. At the provincial level, at least five provinces have 

produced, or are committed to producing, a State of the 

Forest report. These reports can take various forms, ranging from complete C&I reports using a provincial C&I 

framework to more general indicator reports addressing 

issues of concern to the province or assessing the sustainability performance of all tenure holders. In addition, at 

least one province is producing an overall sustainability 

report that will include indicators on forestry in addition to indicators addressing other natural resources. 

Whatever the format the reports have taken, in many 

cases, the indicators used in the provincial level reports 

are developed using the CCFM C&I as a starting point. In 

addition, attempts have been made to more strongly link 

the provincial indicators to either management actions 

that the province, as owner of the forest, can undertake 

or to stated desired forest conditions.

At the Forest Management Unit (FMU) level, at least 

five provinces and territories have developed or are developing Forest Management Planning Manuals (FMPM) 

that will use indicators to assess progress toward goals 

and objectives. In most cases, the CCFM criteria are 

included in the FMPM and in many cases the FMPM 

requires indicators that explicitly address the six CCFM 

criteria. In other cases, the CCFM C&I are used as a starting point for developing indicators at the FMU level.

In addition to this, some FMUs have taken actions 

to better incorporate indicators into their planning processes above and beyond the provincial requirements. 

Some tenure holders have incorporated C&I based on 

the CCFM C&I into their planning process even though 

the provincial regulations do not require it. Others are 

pursuing certification of their forest products using the 

CSA certification, which uses the CCFM criteria. There 

are also examples of companies including their Local 

Level Indicator reports, which they have developed 

through their involvement with a Model Forest, as part of 

their report on operations to the provincial government. 

The work of the Model Forests will be discussed in more 

detail in the following section.

Local Level Indicators and 

Industry Certification

Achieving national goals of sustainability largely rests 

on actions carried out at the local or forest management 

unit (FMU) level. As the forestry paradigm changed from 

sustained yield to sustainable use, the desire to engage local stakeholders in forest management planning grew.

At the local level, the CFS is the founder and the 

primary supporter of Canada’s Model Forest Program. 

The Model Forest Program is currently approaching the 

mid-point of its third five-year phase. The Model Forest 

Secretariat, led by the Canadian Forest Service, ensures 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 919

that the model forests work as an effective network, 

sharing information, experience and best practices. The 

Secretariat has coordinators in Ottawa and regional 

representatives who are responsible for liaison with the 

various sites. Through the Secretariat, model forests 

benefit from joint strategic planning that supports local 

and regional leadership.

Local Level Indicators (LLI) were established as a 

strategic project of the Model Forest Network in Phase 

II (1998 to 2002) of the Model Forest Program to engage 

local stakeholders to identify their values and develop, 

test and validate indicators to show progress toward 

SFM. The Canadian Model Forest Network (CMFN) has 

since developed a number of users’ guides, workshops 

and databases to increase the use of LLI. LLI have also 

influenced some forest certification schemes, which 

are market-driven initiatives to demonstrate that a local forestry operation is sustainable. Most LLI and the 

Canadian Standards Association certification system are 

based on the national CCFM C&I. Included in the objectives of the current phase of the Program (2002-2007) is 

to increase the development and adoption of SFM tools 

within and beyond model forest boundaries, disseminate 

knowledge gained, strengthen network activities, and 

increase local-level participation in SFM. (In addition 

the CMFN supports the efforts of the International Model 

Forest Network in developing indicators for international 

Model Forests).

Results of a recent ad hoc, informal survey conducted 

by the authors are reported below providing examples of 

the benefits that are being realized through the development of LLI by Canada’s Model Forests. These examples 

highlight the value LLI has brought to the local level 

challenge of measuring progress towards SFM.

It was decided among the partners of the Manitoba 

Model Forest (MBMF) that the responsibility for continued monitoring and reporting of LLI would lie with 

partners having management authority or those having 

“more permanency”. The major industrial forest partner 

with MBMF is Tembec Incorporated. This company has 

embraced the LLI process on a number of fronts. C&I 

are part of their annual operations plans and reports and 

are linked to their ISO system currently in place and are 

being incorporated into the development of their FSC 

certification expected within the coming year. A number 

of indicators impact directly on the company’s forestry 

practices on their operations and are used to develop 

forest management plans. For example, in areas of core 

caribou habitat, 66 percent of the high value stands must 

be left intact at any given time, the density of forest access roads is restricted for each watershed and only 30 

percent of any watershed can be depleted at any one time 

through harvesting or natural phenomena such as fire, 

insect and disease. A number of indicators required the 

development of new tools to determine such important 

values as natural age class variation over the licensed 

area, habitat suitability indexes, forest fragmentation and 

caribou location and habitat needs. To gain FSC certification, the company also needs to demonstrate effective 

consultation processes – especially with First Nations. 

The MBMF has set up Traditional Area Advisory 

Committees wherein the company meets regularly with 

FN and government to work together on issues within 

their traditional areas related but not restricted to the 

industrial forest operations. The MBMF is also involved 

in monitoring LLI but with an interesting twist aimed at 

increasing profile and awareness of SFM issues. Water 

quality on lakes and streams is monitored for the LLI by 

aboriginal and non- aboriginal school children as part of 

their curriculum.

The Western Newfoundland Model Forest (WNMF) 

LLI initiative formed the basis the ISO/CSA certification 

process and for its two industrial forestry partners. As 

well, one of the companies uses the LLI as a common 

check-off in developing district plans across the Province. 

The Newfoundland Provincial government, another 

partner with the WNMF, has integrated the LLI into its 

public planning team approach to its forest management 

plans across the province. This model forest’s LLI work 

is also being transferred and adopted by the Innu Nation 

and the Provincial Department of Natural Resources in 

their collaboration to develop the certification process 

for the forest areas of Labrador.

The Fundy Model Forest in New Brunswick reports 

that its LLI have benefited its major industrial partner in 

planning and reporting on its SFM efforts and changed 

a number of forestry practices and inventory inputs to 

gain a finer scale and more robust data for its permanent 

sample plots.

A number of model forests with significant private 

landholdings within their boundaries facilitated the development and application of LLI to support the efforts 

of the private woodland owners in their area to develop 

certification schemes. In addition, at the Eastern Ontario 

Model Forest LLI are being used to enhance natural 

heritage planning and significant woodlands analysis 

work and have been instrumental in establishing data 

sharing agreements - all of which has been incorporated 

into several official plans and sub-regional, long-range 

planning initiatives.

In Alberta, the Foothills Model Forest used its 40 

individual LLI that its partnership developed based 

on the CCFM C&I to publish a report on SFM in 

2003. This work was adopted by their main forest 

industry partner, Weldwood of Canada Incorporated, 

for its Forest Certification program and for its 20 year 
920 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Forest Management Plan (that must be approved by 

the Province). Likewise, the provincial government is 

using the LLI work as a base to develop indicators of 

SFM for the province itself. Jasper National Park, a 

major land manager and partner with this model forest, 

is using the report as a key input into its deliberations to 

develop sustainable forest management plans specific to 

the mandate of the National Park. The FMF LLI team 

consisting of representatives from within its partnership 

has reviewed its LLI and will be presenting its recommendation to continue its LLI program to refine and to 

improve the indicators.

Understandably, each model forest and its partners 

have had unique experiences in through their involvement with the LLI process however, it is notable that 

there is concordance among the respondents regarding 

the utility of LLI in reporting on progress to SFM in the 

local area (although this has been deemed to demand 

excessive resources by some), in the evaluation of policies and regulations, in improving stakeholder capacity to 

provide more meaningful input and to provide guidance 

to forest practices for SFM.

The Model Forest Phase III (2002-2007) LLI Strategic 

Initiative has sought to bring together the indicators 

that were developed in Phase II into formats that are 

easily accessible by those engaged in SFM. Several 

individual Model Forests continue their efforts with the 

development, further research and adoption of local level 

indicators. Model Forests are also using LLI as the basis 

of reporting on their own SFM goals, and are providing 

LLI to industry, governments and First Nations for use 

in measuring and reporting SFM, to assist with public 

planning processes, and as the basis for achieving certification. These efforts engage people from individual 

Model Forests, CFS, Provincial and Territorial forest 

management agencies, forest industry, oil and gas industry, National Parks, and First Nations.

Evaluating Sustainability

Even once complete national data has been compiled, 

another challenge in evaluating progress toward sustainability is linking the indicators under the various criteria 

to make an overall assessment. During the CCFM C&I 

review, attempts were made to identify reference values 

for indicators, such as baselines, targets or thresholds, 

which could provide context for assessing the indicator. 

Because sustainability measures are still evolving, and 

because most of the forest management decision-making 

responsibility resides at the provincial and territorial level 

in Canada, few identifiable national targets or thresholds 

have been established. Most of the reference values 

identified are baselines of past performance.

Work is underway in Canada and around the world 

to develop more sophisticated tools and techniques 

to make an overall assessment of sustainability. One 

promising tool appears to be the Multi-criteria Analysis 

(MCA) technique adapted for use with C&I by CIFOR. 

So far, this technique seems to have been applied most 

extensively at the local level, however, the Province 

of Ontario has been exploring its use at the provincial 

level to provide an overall assessment of their progress 

toward sustainability based on their C&I report. One 

possible approach to providing an overall assessment 

is to invite individuals from various sectors of society to score and weight each indicator in the report. 

The subsequent weighted scores can then be worked 

up into a score for each criterion or even an overall 

score. Furthermore, the weighted scores from groups 

of individuals can be analyzed to see how different 

sectors of society are evaluating progress toward SFM. 

This analysis can form feedback into the policy making forum, allowing for the development of policies 

designed to raise indicator scores for some or all sectors of society.

Conclusion

Over the past decade and a half, Canada has enjoyed 

many benefits from its collaborative relationships in the 

development of its national C&I framework. The C&I, 

by providing a framework for standardizing the national 

forest data collection and for helping to develop and 

implement a national forest inventory, have lead to the 

establishment of many linkages between all levels of 

interest and responsibility. The sharing of information 

and resources between jurisdictions and stakeholders 

has helped to build capacity and reduce reporting cost, 

and the framework has led to the development of subnational and local level initiatives that help to evaluate 

policies and regulation, facilitate meaningful public 

input, and guide forest practices. A continued adaptive 

approach to the CCFM C&I framework and throughout 

the many linkages described in this paper will improve 

the framework as a tool to provide these benefits and 

ensure that C&I remain an important tool for helping 

Canadians achieve SFM.

Canada has seen the value of linkages among all levels 

of jurisdiction and seen improvements in the reporting of 

progress to SFM. Canada anticipates continued strong, 

collaborative relationships over the coming years in 

support of those taking on the challenge to refine and 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 921

promote the use of better indicators to report progress 

towards SFM at all levels.

References

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 1997. Criteria and 

Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management in Canada: 

Technical Report 1997. Natural Resources Canada. Ottawa. 

137 pp. Available online at: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/cfs/

proj/ppiab/ci/indica_e.html.

Canadian Council of Forest Ministers. 2000. Criteria and 

Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management in Canada: 

National Status 2000. Natural Resources Canada. Ottawa. 

122 pp. Available online at: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/cfs/

proj/ppiab/ci/indica_e.html.

Canadian Forest Service. 2000. A User’s Guide to Local Level 

Indicators of Sustainable Forest Management: Experiences 

fro the Canadian Model Forest Network. Natural Resources 

Canada. Ottawa. Available online at: www.modelforest.

net.

Mendoza, G. A., and P. Macoun with R. Prabhu, D. Sukadri, H. 

Purnomo and H. Hartanto. 1999. Guidelines for Applying 

Multi-Criteria Analysis to the Assessment of Criteria and 

Indicators: C&I Toolbox No. 9. CIFOR. Jakarta. Available 

online at: http://www.cifor.cgiar.org/acm/methods/toolbox9.

html

Montréal Process Liaison Office. 1997a. First Approximation 

Report of the Montréal Process. Natural Resources Canada. 

Ottawa. 47 pp. Available online at: http://www.mpci.

org/meetings/approx/approx1_e.html.

Montréal Process Liaison Office. 1997b. Canada’s Report 

on the Montréal Process Criteria and Indicators for the 

Conservation and Sustainable Management of Temperate 

and Boreal Forests. Natural Resources Canada. Ottawa. 

140 pp.

Montréal Process Liaison Office. 1999. Criteria and Indicators 

for the Conservation and Sustainable Management of 

Temperate and Boreal Forests: The Montréal Process 2nd 

ed. Natural Resources Canada. Ottawa. 19 pp. Available 

online at: http://www.mpci.org/meetings/santiago/

santiago1_e.html.

Montréal Process Liaison Office. 2000. The Montréal Process: 

Year 2000 Progress Report. Natural Resources Canada. 

Ottawa. 97 pp. Available online at: http://www.mpci.

org/meetings/rep2000/rep2000_e.html.

Ontario Ministry of Natural resources. 2001. State of the Forest 

Report. Queen’s Printer for Ontario. Toronto. Available 

online at: www.mnr.gov.on.ca/MNR/forests/forestdoc/

sofr/index.html

Personal Communication. 2004. Ad hoc informal survey of 

Provincial C&I contacts.

Personal Communication. 2004. Ad hoc informal survey of 

Canada’s Model Forest contacts.
922 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Maryland faces many challenges in sustaining healthy, 

ecologically functional and economically viable forests 

in the face of rapid urban development. Once, more than 

90 percent of Maryland was forested. Today only 41 percent of Maryland’s land is covered by forest. Maryland is 

the nation’s fifth most densely populated state, with more 

than 5.3 million people. The rapidly growing population 

has more than doubled since 1950, threatening an already 

stressed forest.

Maryland’s Strategic Forest Lands Assessment (SFLA) 

grows from the recognition that the state faces significant 

loss of the ecological, social, and economic benefits of 

forests without significant changes to the current pattern 

of land development. This pattern causes forests to be 

fragmented from large, contiguous blocks of forest into 

many smaller, isolated patches. Smaller patches are less 

effective in preserving ecological function and wildlife 

habitat. They are more difficult to manage to protect soil, 

air and water quality. They are also less likely to support 

the forestry and wood products industry, the fifth largest 

industry in the State. Maryland’s wood products industry 

is already under significant stresses, but it is not clearly 

understood how any losses in this sector might impact 

the state’s forests in the future.

Sustainable use of our forest resources, for the 

multiple benefits they provide, requires careful planning and management to meet the needs of today and 

tomorrow. This is particularly important in Maryland 

where pressures on the forest are acute. Maryland’s 

Strategic Forest Lands Assessment provides a baseline 

of information about where we are now, and suggests 

criteria and indicators that can be used to measure 

Maryland’s Strategic Forest Lands Assessment—Using 

Indicators and Models for Decision Support

J. L. Horan, Chief of Forest Resource Planning and Analysis, Maryland DNR Forest Service, 

Annapolis, MD

J. C. Wolf, GIS manager and landscape ecologist, National Park Service - Chesapeake Bay 

Program, Annapolis, MD

Abstract—Sustaining healthy, ecologically functional, and economically viable forests 

is an increasing challenge in Maryland due to relentless urban development. Forests 

that once occupied more than 90 percent of Maryland’s landscape today cover only 

41 percent of the land. As forests become more fragmented and parcelized they begin 

to lose their ability to provide important ecological, social, and economic benefits. This 

paper excerpts the publication “Maryland’s Strategic Forest Lands Assessment” which 

highlights the use of indicators to analyze forest sustainability and multi-variate GIS-based 

computer models to rank the ecological and economic importance of forestlands at the 

state level. It also addresses the methodology behind the models and showcases ways 

of enhancing them for making finer scale land management decisions.

At the core of the assessment are four computer based thematic models that have 

used aggregated data sets to determine the Ecological Ranking of Forest Lands, the 

Economic Ranking of Forest Lands, the Vulnerability Ranking of Forest Lands, and the 

Riparian Restoration Potential of more than 1000 sub-watersheds. These GIS-based 

computer models were initially created as indicators and benchmarks at the state scale. 

More recently the tools have been further honed to help managers make decisions at 

a number of different scales.

The ecological ranking has been used to assess ecological importance at the state level, 

but it has also been adapted for use at the parcel scale to evaluate the ecological ranking 

of lands being considered for fee simple or easement purchase. Similar adaptations were 

made to watershed models to create a restoration model that could pick out individual 

stream segments that were of particular interest for forest buffer restoration. Much work 

still remains to be done, but the availability of finer scale data makes the use of these 

tools even more relevant for decision support.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 923

change, as a first step in working toward sustainability 

for Maryland’s forests.

Ecological Ranking of Forest 

Lands

To determine forest areas of high ecological value, 

the Maryland Department of Natural Resource’s (DNR) 

developed a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based 

computer model that considers both the regional and 

local ecological significance of the forest. The regional 

evaluation looks at the ecological importance of large 

forest patches relative to other forest patches within the 

same physiographic region. Variables relevant at local 

scales help to identify conservation values at or in close 

proximity to a specific parcel.

The data that have been assembled for the ecological 

model were selected based on their utility in measuring ecological values important to land conservation 

programs. Specifically, principles of landscape ecology 

and conservation biology have been interpreted and 

represented by GIS data layers. Each data set was scored 

and weighted to represent the importance of that factor 

in assigning an overall ecological score.

The ecological model gives priority or greater weight 

to large forest blocks, particularly:

forest patches with a greater proportion of “interior” 

conditions

intact forest blocks (as opposed to patches containing 

substantial non-forest “gaps”)

patches with a diversity of habitat types

patches that provide stream or erodible soils protection

patches that are in close proximity to other forest 

blocks (as opposed to isolated patches with substantial 

inter-patch distance)

The ecological model also favors forested corridors 

that:

are short as opposed to long

are wide as opposed to narrow

contain or have the potential to contain interior forest 

conditions are intact as opposed to fragmented

link forest blocks ranking high as opposed to those 

that rank low

link similar as opposed to dissimilar ecotypes

have few or no road crossings

protect and link riparian systems, and

connect with large forest blocks

This ecological model was originally developed for use 

at the state scale, but has been widely used at the county 

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and watershed scale for broad assessments and planning. 

More recently however the model has been enhanced to 

assist decision makers and resource managers in making 

land use decisions. Specifically, an algorhythm was written that allowed resource managers to evaluate and rank 

the conservation value of individual parcels that were 

being considered for protection or fee simple purchase 

through Maryland’s Program Open Space. This process 

allowed staff to justify to the Governor, an acquisition of 

58,000 acres, now called the Chesapeake Forest, located 

in five counties and spread over 200 separate parcels, by 

showing the protection of ecological function through a 

network of hubs and corridors connecting to other state 

and private conservation lands.

Today, every parcel considered for purchase through 

Maryland’s Program Open Space, Maryland Agricultural 

Land Preservation Foundation, Maryland Environmental 

Trust or Maryland’s Rural Legacy Program are evaluated 

using this ecological model (DNR 2001, Maryland’s 

Green Infrastructure Methodology). Land conservation 

partners like The Nature Conservancy, The Conservation 

Fund, local governments, and local land trusts frequently 

ask for this analysis to be run on lands they are considering for protection in Maryland. This is an impressive 

and effective extrapolation of a tool that primarily uses 

30-meter satellite data and was originally designed for 

use at the state or watershed scale.

Methods Used to Develop the 

Ecological Ranking of Forest 

Lands

The Ecological Ranking of Forest Lands used the 

Green Infrastructure methodology, where both hubs 

and corridors were evaluated and ranked within their 

physiographic regions. Physiographic regions have a 

characteristic geology and climate, which shape the 

ecosystems and biological communities within them. 

Methods were developed to ensure that ecosystems 

adapted to these different climates and substrates were 

represented in the top ranking hubs, so that the best examples in each region might be protected. Another reason 

for grouping hubs by region is that natural conditions 

and communities vary greatly between the Coastal Plain 

and the Appalachian mountains. For example, cypress 

swamp communities are not found outside the Coastal 

Plain, and high gradient streams are not found inside this 

region. A single ecological ranking of all hubs would 

compare “apples to oranges” and might not succeed in 

protecting the broad biological and geological diversity 

of the state.
924 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Twenty-seven parameters were selected and given an 

importance weighting according to feedback from biologists and natural resource managers; literature reviews; 

minimization of redundancy, area dependence, and spatial overlap; balancing different ecotypes; data reliability; 

and examination of output from different combinations. 

None of the parameters were highly correlated (>80 percent). The highest correlation was between area of upland 

forest and interior forest streams (75 percent).

To derive a composite ecological ranking, the percentiles for the 27 ecological parameters were multiplied 

by an importance weighting and added together for 

each hub. The importance weightings were a function 

of the parameter’s utility and data reliability. Although 

all hubs are ecologically significant, the ranking system 

can help prioritize initial conservation efforts. For additional detail on the hub ecological ranking parameters 

and methods, see the Summary of Methods to Identify 

and Evaluate Maryland’s Green Infrastructure (DNR 

2001).

Economic Ranking of Forest 

Lands

If managed properly, forests can continue to provide 

ecological services, water quality protection, and habitat, 

as well as a variety of forest products. The Economic 

Model for the Strategic Forest Lands Assessment uses 

GIS to help identify economically important forestlands, 

particularly those with the greatest potential to yield 

economic benefits associated with timber management 

activities. The model includes factors that relate not only 

to the short term potential economic return on a forest 

harvest operation, but also the long-term economic sustainability of forest land, considering local and regional 

influences. At a local or site level, the economic model 

considers biophysical factors that influence what tree 

species can be grown in a given area. Also included 

are data layers that aim to approximate constraints on 

management of the forest resource.

Site-specific factors incorporated into the model 

include:

tree species composition

soil productivity

slope

microclimate

riparian and wetland features

presence of sensitive species habitats

At regional or landscape scales, the economic model 

incorporates factors that affect the ability of the forest 

to support resource-based economies, including the 

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importance of the timber management and wood products 

industry to local economies. Also included are data layers that attempt to capture the effects of State and local 

policy on forestland protection.

Regional or landscape scale socioeconomic and policy 

factors include:

population density

parcelization

proximity of the forest resource to mills

role of the forest products industry in the local 

economy

existing or planned water and sewer service or other 

designations for urban growth existing working landscape protection initiatives (for example, Rural Legacy 

and Forest Legacy Areas)

existing public and private forest land protection

Methods Used to Develop the 

Economic Ranking of Forest 

Lands

Like the ecological assessment the economic assessment uses a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) 

analysis to overlay multiple layers of spatially referenced 

data. These data layers, which reflect potential economic 

benefits or considerations, are used to identify the relative economic value of Maryland’s forestlands. All GIS 

data were converted to grids with a uniform cell size 

of 30 meters x 30 meters. Elements in each data layer 

were scored according to potential economic impacts 

and relationships. Elements known to encourage timber 

management practices, or create higher potential economic value, were scored higher than elements which 

may impose management constraints or have lower 

potential economic value.

One of the parameters that has significant influence 

on the economic efficiencies of timber management is 

patch size. Economies of scale are more favorable when 

larger, although fewer, patches of forest are managed for 

timber rather than many smaller sized patches. There are 

also many socioeconomic issues that influence or create 

constraints for timber management, particularly in urban 

or urbanizing areas. Social tolerance, local economic 

importance, landowner objectives and industry infrastructure, will all have an influence on the likelihood of 

forestland remaining economically sustainable.

Population density is used to predict the social 

tolerance to and sustainability of commercial timber 

management activities. As population density increases, the likelihood of sustainable timber management 

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 925

decreases because of land use conversion to development 

and increasing intolerance to the noise, visual, and safety 

impacts associated with forest harvest operations. Land 

parcelization and contiguity of ownership were used 

as indicators for sustainable forest management. Large 

parcels of forestland have the benefits associated with 

economies of scale. Landowners owning larger blocks 

of forest are more likely to have management objectives 

that include timber management as compared to the 

objectives of small lot landowners.

Within the economic assessment we also tried to develop measures to evaluate the local importance of the 

forest products industry. The importance of the forest 

products industry to the local economy is evaluated at 

a county level by comparing the total industry output 

from the forestry and wood products sectors to the total 

industry output for all industry sectors (via IMPLAN). 

Two sector groupings were evaluated separately due to 

different proximity relationships to the forest resource 

base.

Maryland Department of Natural Resources (DNR) is 

currently working with local county officials to evaluate 

impacts of zoning regulations and incentives on forest 

ownership and forest industry viability. Baltimore County 

Maryland has begun an elaborate analysis of forests, 

ownership, and development patterns using the SFLA 

methods in an attempt to retain forests that are functioning for both their ecological and economic benefits. The 

enhanced models may be used to influence policy, direct 

county programs and to develop effective incentives to 

retain forestland.

Vulnerability Ranking of Forest 

Lands

Threats to forestlands arise from multiple potential 

stressors. The most obvious threat is the conversion of 

forestland into some form of urban use, such as residential, commercial, industrial, or institutional uses, with the 

consequent loss of most of its natural resource values. 

Maryland’s forest resources are also threatened by other 

forces, including biological pests (for example, exotic 

species, overabundant deer, etc.) as well as abiotic factors 

(for example, fire, acid deposition).

For purposes of the Strategic Forest Lands Assessment, 

the vulnerability model that has been developed focuses 

on the threat of conversion of forestland to development. 

It only indirectly incorporates other biotic and abiotic 

stressors. The model looks at regional and site specific 

factors that contribute to the vulnerability of a given acre 

of forest to development, as well as factors that make its 

conversion less likely.

Examples of site-specific data layers used to determine 

an area’s vulnerability include:

the current level of protection arising from public 

ownership, conservation or agricultural easements

constraints on development as a result of physical limitations or regulations associated with environmentally 

sensitive features, including wetlands and riparian 

areas, steep slopes, and sensitive habitats

The vulnerability of forestland to development is 

heavily influenced by the greater geographic setting. 

Market forces can drive the long-term sustainability of 

forests as a preferred land use. The vulnerability model 

approximates these effects by including data layers to 

assess:

proximity to population centers

road access and density

proximity to existing protected open space

real estate values

Finally, public policy and investment can also be used 

to direct growth and, correspondingly, the conservation 

of forest resources. The model addresses these factors 

by including data layers for:

existing water and sewer service areas

Priority Funding Areas for Smart Growth

local zoning

Maryland’s Chesapeake Bay Critical Area (separate 

zoning categories within 1,000 feet mean high tide of 

the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries)

Methods Used to Develop the 

Vulnerability Ranking of Forest 

Lands

Population growth or loss 1990 through 2000 was a 

major component of the vulnerability model. Rapidly 

growing areas were identified by looking at the last 

decade of population growth in Maryland. Year 2000 

human population density within Maryland census blocks 

(from 2000 TIGER data) was compared to 1990 human 

population density within Maryland census blocks (from 

1990 TIGER data).

Mean Parcel Size was also a major component of the 

model. The number of forest landowners in the U.S. has 

been steadily increasing since the early 1900’s, and thus 

the average parcel size has been decreasing (Mehmood 

and Zhang 2001). In Maryland, the number of forest owners more than tripled between 1978 and 1994, increasing 

from 42,200 to 130,600 (Birch 1996). Total private 

forestland ownership increased only slightly, and the 

average parcel size decreased from 45 acres to only 17 

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926 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

acres. Parcelization often leads to forest fragmentation. 

As the number of landowners increases, their attitudes 

and objectives become more diverse, and many choose 

to convert their land to other uses, especially residential (Birch 1996, Mehmood and Zhang 2001). Parcel 

centroids were obtained from Maryland Property View. 

To make the dataset manageable, only parcels at least 

1 acre or greater in size could be used in the analysis. 

Parcels smaller than 1 acre were generally considered to 

be already intensely developed.

Commute time to major town centers was also thought 

to be a significant factor in evaluating the vulnerability 

of forestland. Bockstael (1996), Geoghegan and others 

(1997), and Bockstael and Bell (1998) found that distance to urban centers such as Washington DC affects 

land value and the probability of housing construction 

on private parcels. Wickham and others (2000) found a 

strong correlation between forest fragmentation and a 

geographic gradient of urbanization pressure in central 

Virginia. Land demand pressure was interpolated as a 

ratio of urban center population, taken from the 1990 

Census of Population for each Census Designated Place, 

over the distance along major roads from these urban 

centers (Wickham and others, 2000).

Wickham and others (2000) was used to evaluate 

land demand based on proximity to Washington DC and 

Baltimore. Land demand pressure was interpolated as a 

ratio of urban center population, taken from the 1990 

Census of Population for each Census Designated Place, 

over the distance along major roads from these urban 

centers (Wickham and others, 2000). Extra weighting 

was given for proximity to DC and Baltimore, which 

have by far the largest concentration of commuters in 

the state. Other cities were addressed in the previous 

metric, commuting time to urban centers. Land demand 

was calculated from DC and Baltimore as the number 

of potential commuters divided by the commuting time 

to these areas.

Market land value was another parameter evaluated to determine vulnerability. Bockstael (1996) and 

Bockstael and Bell (1998) found that the higher the 

land value of a parcel, the higher the probability of 

its conversion to residential use or other development. 

Maryland’s Property View database, which contains 

market land value, was interpolated to create a continuous cost surface. The distance from major roads make 

a particular area more prone to development, because 

of decreased construction costs and increased access to 

existing infrastructure. These primary and secondary 

roads improve general accessibility (Bockstael, 1996). 

Access to major roads is especially important to businesses; most major general access roads are lined with 

commercial and industrial enterprises. The distance of 

each grid cell from all interstate, primary state, and 

secondary state roads was calculated.

In Maryland the area of waterfront property also had to 

be considered to evaluate vulnerability. Waterfront property is generally more desirable to developers (Bockstael, 

1996). Waterfront property was defined as cells adjacent 

to (i.e., within 166 feet of) river, lake, or bay shorelines, 

and generally excluding wetlands. Similarly, proximity 

to preserved open space increased parcel value, and thus 

its probability of conversion to residential use (Bockstael, 

1996). To evaluate this, the distance of each forested cell 

to all protected lands such as public land, private conservation land, conservation easements, or agricultural 

easements were calculated.

Riparian Restoration Potential 

of Sensitive Lands

Still being modified and enhanced, is the GIS-based 

model to help rank the Riparian Restoration Potential 

of Sensitive Lands. This model is primarily aimed at 

prioritizing areas for riparian forest restoration and 

conservation as part of the Chesapeake Bay restoration 

efforts through Maryland’s Stream ReLeaf Program. 

Restoration of stream buffers return the highest cost/

benefit ratio of any best management practice used to 

reduce non-point source nutrient loadings to streams 

within the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Many ecological benefits are also associated with maintaining forest 

along streams (riparian forest). These include taking up 

nutrients in ground and surface water flow, as a buffer 

between streams and adjacent land uses; stabilizing 

stream banks; shading the water and maintaining its 

temperature; and providing food as substrate for aquatic 

and terrestrial animals alike.

The relative percentage of unforested riparian areas 

within a watershed can be an indicator of aquatic and terrestrial system stress. A Geographic Information System 

(GIS) was used to calculate the amount of forested and 

unforested riparian buffer in each watershed. First a 

100-foot stream corridor (buffer) was identified around 

free-flowing streams mapped by the Maryland Office 

of Planning (OP). This information was combined with 

OP 1994 land use data showing forested land and with 

DNR’s Forest Resource Inventory (DNR FRI, 1991). 

To calculate the indicator, the combined area of forested 

and unforested corridor was summed for each eight-digit 

watershed. The unforested portion was then divided by 

the total corridor area to create the percent of unforested 

riparian buffer.

In Maryland, which would naturally be 95 percent 

forested, almost all native organisms would have evolved 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 927

under the influence of forested conditions. Therefore 

in a natural state, the percentage of unforested riparian 

buffer in free flowing stream systems should be close to 

zero. Head-water streams that are further up in a given 

watershed, create a higher benefit for restoration or 

protection than river shoreline or estuarine areas lower 

in a watershed.

In Maryland’s Unified Watershed Assessment, completed as part of the Clean Water Action Plan (1998), 

watersheds with more than 49 percent of stream lengths 

unforested were considered to be in need of restoration. 

Watersheds having high percentages of unforested land 

in the riparian area bordering streams are potential targets 

for riparian reforestation. Where unforested riparian buffer areas represent smaller percentages of stream mileage, 

other restoration measures may be more appropriate to 

achieving water quality and habitat improvement.

This watershed targeting system has assisted DNR and 

partner agencies in restoring more than 70,000 acres of 

sensitive agricultural land through USDA’s Conservation 

Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP), including the 

establishment of more than 1,200 miles of forest riparian 

buffers in Maryland. Watershed evaluations were done 

for each of the 127 separate eight-digit watersheds to determine rank. This information was shared with program 

partners and personnel resources were modified to assist 

program delivery. The Riparian Restoration Model will 

be further enhanced as part of the next phase of restoration efforts tied to the Chesapeake 2000 Agreement.

Conclusions

“Maryland’s Strategic Forest Lands Assessment” 

highlights the use of indicators to analyze forest sustainability and the effectiveness of using GIS-based 

computer models to rank the ecological and economic 

importance of forestlands. These four GIS-based computer models; the Ecological Ranking of Forest Lands, 

the Economic Ranking of Forest Lands, the Vulnerability 

Ranking of Forest Lands, and the Riparian Restoration 

Potential Model, have been shown to be very effective 

at assessing forest sustainability at the state, county and 

watershed scale.

The methodology behind the models when enhanced 

has been shown to be a very effective decision support 

tool for making finer scale land management decisions. 

Much work still remains to be done, but the availability 

of finer scale data makes the use of these tools even more 

relevant for future decision support. The promise of these 

models is their ability to evaluate forest sustainability, 

land use patterns, and program delivery, simultaneously 

at the landscape and site level. The challenge will be 

to use this information to develop land use policy and 

incentives that will encourage forest sustainability in a 

rapidly changing environment.

References

American Farmland Trust. 1998. Farms for the future: a 

strategic approach to saving Maryland’s farmland and 

rural resources. American Farmland Trust, Northampton, 

MA. 117 pp.

Birch, T. W. 1996. Private forest-land owners of the United 

States, 1994. USDA Forest Service, Delaware, OH. 183 

pp.

Bockstael, N. E. 1996. Modeling economics and ecology: the 

importance of a spatial perspective. American Journal of 

Agricultural Economics. 78: 1168-1180.

Bockstael, N. E., and K. Bell. 1998. Land use patterns and 

water quality: the effect of differential land management 

controls. pp. 169-191 in R. Just and S. Netanyahu, eds., 

Conflict and cooperation on trans-boundary water resources. 

Kluwer Academic Publishers, Norwell, MA.

Forman, R. T. T. 1995. Land mosaics: the ecology of landscapes 

and regions. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 

England. 632pp.

Geoghegan, J., L. A. Wainger, and N. E. Bockstael. 1997. 

Spatial landscape indices in a hedonic framework: an 

ecological economics analysis using GIS. Ecological 

Economics 23:251-264.

Maryland Clean Water Action Plan. 1998. Unified Watershed 

Assessment. Annapolis, MD

Maryland Department of Natural Resources. 1991. Forest 

Resource Inventory (FRI).

Maryland Department of Natural Resources. 2003. Maryland’s 

Strategic Forest Lands Assessment (SFLA). Available 

online at www.dnr.state.md.us/forests/planning/sfla.

Maryland Department of Natural Resources. 2004. Maryland’s 

Strategic Forest Lands Assessment – Summary of Methods 

– Ecological, Economic and Vulnerability Models.

Maryland Department of Natural Resources. 2001.Summary 

of Methods to Identify and Evaluate Maryland’s Green 

Infrastructure. Available online at http://dnrweb.dnr.state.

md.us/download/grantsandloans/gpevaluation.pdf.

Maryland Department of State Planning. 1973. Natural soils 

groups technical report. Maryland Department of State 

Planning (now Maryland Dept. of Planning), Baltimore, 

MD. 153 pp.

Maryland Office of Planning. 1998. Atlas of agricultural land 

preservation in Maryland: location, protection, threat, 

and opportunities for the future. Maryland Department of 

Planning, Baltimore, MD.

McCann, J., Maryland Department of Natural Resources. 1999. 

Personal comm.

McGarigal, K., and B. J. Marks. 1995. FRAGSTATS: spatial pattern analysis program for quantifying landscape 

structure. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-351. U.S. Dept. of 

Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research 

Station, Portland, OR. 122pp.

Mehmood, S. R., and D. Zhang. 2001. Forest parcelization in 

the United States: a study of contributing factors. Journal 

of Forestry 99(4): 30-34.

Miller, K. M. 1997. Sensitive Species Project Review Areas 

(SSPRA) Metadata. Maryland Department of Natural 
928 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Resources, Geographic Information Services Division. 

Annapolis, MD.

National Gap Analysis Program. 1994. A handbook for gap 

analysis. National Gap Analysis Program, Moscow, ID.

Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural 

Resources. 1998. WRCF - Delmarva fox squirrel [Online]. 

Available at http://www.dcnr.state.pa.us/wrcf/delmarva.

htm

Pennsylvania Game Commission. 2001. Delmarva fox squirrel 

(Sciurus niger cinereus) [Online]. Available at http://sites.

state.pa.us/PA_Exec/PGC/squirrel/profile.htm.

Robinson, S. K., F. R. Thompson III, T. M. Donovan, D. R. 

Whitehead, and J. Faaborg. 1995. Regional forest fragmentation and the nesting success of migratory birds. Science 

267:1987-1990.

Scott, J.M., F. Davis, B. Csuti, R. Noss, B. Butterfield, C. 

Groves, H. Anderson, S. Caicco, F. D’Erchia, T.C. Edwards, 

Jr., J. Ulliman, and R.G. Wright. 1993. Gap Analysis: A 

geographic approach to protection of biological diversity. 

Wildlife Monographs 123:1-41.

Wickham, J. D., R. V. O’Neill, and K. B. Jones. 2000. Forest 

fragmentation as an economic indicator. Landscape ecology 

15:171-179.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 929

Introduction

The USDA Forest Service considers maintenance 

of soil and water quality a high priority as it plans and 

implements management activities. A number of laws 

regulating activities of the Forest Service (Organic 

Administration Act of 1897, Multiple Use and Sustained 

Yield Act of 1960, National Environmental Policy Act of 

1969, National Forest Management Act of 1976) all mention providing high quality water, providing sustainable 

supplies of timber and forage, improving growth of forest 

and rangeland vegetation, not degrading the productive 

potential of the national forests, and disclosing to the 

public impacts of proposed activities on the soil.

Although the laws mentioned above speak to the importance of soils in ecosystems, there are no meaningful 

standards, procedures, or objectives provided to assess 

whether the intent of these laws is being met. There are no 

concise, common definitions of sustainable productivity 

or watershed condition.

The harvest and removal of forest products, and subsequent land treatment operations such as slash disposal 

and site preparation, generally result in some degree 

of soil disturbance. Soil disturbance is not necessarily 

harmful and, in fact, may often be a management objective, particularly where site preparation and restoration 

are concerned. However, land managers should be concerned when soils are disturbed to the point where their 

inherent productive potential is significantly reduced or 

hydrologic function is impaired. There have been many 

differences of opinion among soil scientists, foresters, 

managers, and operators about where this “significant” 

threshold occurs.

Detrimental soil disturbance commonly is in the 

form of compaction, displacement, and puddling resulting from the use of ground-based harvesting and slash 

Soil Disturbance Monitoring in the USDA Forest Service, 

Pacific Northwest Region

Steven W. Howes, Regional Soil Scientist, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Region, 

Portland, OR

Abstract—In order to make reasoned decisions, USDA Forest Service managers must 

understand how changes in specific indicators of soil quality resulting from project 

implementation affect long-term forest productivity and watershed health. They must 

also be able to efficiently and economically assess the degree and extent of such changes 

across specified areas and adjust management activities accordingly. In 1979, the Pacific 

Northwest Region was the first Forest Service region to develop and implement soil 

quality standards based on the best research available at the time. Initial monitoring of 

land management activities for adherence to these standards was uncoordinated and, 

in many cases, followed protocols that led to questionable results. In partnership with 

the Pacific Northwest Research Station, a standard soil disturbance assessment protocol 

was developed in 1983 to provide consistent, comparable, and defensible data across 

the region. This protocol eventually became a national model for conducting soil disturbance assessments on national forest system lands. Information generated by such 

monitoring efforts has led to significant changes in techniques used to accomplish land 

management objectives. Eventually, a need arose for less expensive and time-consuming 

soil disturbance assessment protocols that still provide reasonably accurate and comparable data. Also needed was a means to improve communication and increase the 

level of understanding among soil scientists, land managers, operators, and the public. 

A partnership effort involving research and management personnel from several governmental and large industrial forest land owners in the Northwest is attempting to develop 

soil quality standards based on visual classifications of disturbance. Land managers and 

research scientists are also working to develop models that can be used to determine 

the degree of risk of soil disturbance occurring as a result of equipment operation and 

burning. These can, in turn, be used to establish site-specific soil management objectives. Continued research and management cooperation is needed to quantify effects 

of soil disturbance on site productivity and hydrologic response.
930 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

disposal equipment. It can also be in the form of sheet 

and rill erosion or charred soil in intensely burned areas. 

Problems have arisen in operational settings in determining threshold levels for, or defining when, detrimental 

soil disturbance exists, and in determining how much 

can be tolerated on a given area of land before unacceptable declines in productive potential or hydrologic 

function occur.

Soil Quality Standards

The Pacific Northwest Region (R6) first issued a 

Forest Service Manual supplement dealing with soil 

productivity protection in 1979. It has been modified 

a number of times since then (USDA Forest Service, 

1998). This direction specified threshold values for 

determining when detrimental soil disturbance occurs 

and also set area extent or tolerance limits for detrimental soil disturbance on an activity area basis. Most 

national forests within R6 incorporated these values as 

Forest-wide standards as they developed their initial 

forest land and resource management plans. Other 

Forest Service Regions subsequently developed similar 

policy and direction (Powers, Tiarks, and Boyle, 1998). 

Standards for determining detrimental soil compaction, 

displacement, puddling, and severely burned soils were 

developed based on the best research results available 

at the time. Meurisse (1988) has discussed the history 

and evolution of the R6 soil quality standards in detail. 

Howes (1988) has described their application in an 

operational setting.

Standards emphasize observable and measurable soil 

characteristics that field personnel can use to monitor 

effectiveness of activities in meeting soil management 

objectives. In summary, all forms of detrimental soil 

disturbance, including permanent features of the transportation system such as roads and landings, are limited 

in extent to no more than 20 percent of an activity 

area.

Initial Management/Research 

Soil Monitoring Partnership

After soil quality standards had been developed and 

adopted for use, a system of monitoring was needed to 

ensure that, in fact, they were being met. Initially, no 

standard monitoring protocol was available. A number of 

widely disparate sampling procedures were developed; 

some with questionable scientific basis. This led to inconsistencies in sampling between national forests and often 

to indefensible results and incomparable data. Results of 

sampling were frequently challenged by individuals from 

within the agency, as well as from the public.

The need for a sound soil disturbance monitoring protocol provided the impetus for an informal partnership 

between R6 and Pacific Northwest Forest and Range 

Experiment Station. In 1981, a cooperative effort was 

begun to develop a statistically sound and defensible soil 

monitoring protocol. Objectives were to:

Obtain a representative sample;

Control level of precision;

Obtain consistent results with repeated sampling; 

and

Sample all types of soil disturbance at one time.

Two years of coordination and field testing resulted in 

a monitoring protocol that was first described by Howes, 

Hazard, and Geist (1983) in a field guide prepared for 

use by R6 soil scientists. Sampling rules and supporting theory were subsequently described by Hazard and 

Geist (1984).

Briefly, the protocol calls for establishing a systematic 

sample of grid points, arrayed on a map or aerial photograph of the activity unit to be monitored (fig. 1). The 

entire grid is randomly located and oriented, and the distance between points is constructed to provide a sample 

size that meets precision requirements or cost limitations 

specified in the objectives. Each grid intersection locates 

a line transect that radiates in a random chosen direction 

from the grid point.

Soil condition classes (displaced, puddled, eroded, 

severely burned) are identified using visual surface 

characteristics and are measured by the proportion of the 

length of each transect contained in each class. Certain 

physical soil characteristics may require collection of 

soil cores or other measurements (porosity, strength) to 

assess properties along the line transect but within the 

soil. This is done at fixed intervals. For example, cores 

1.

2.

3.

4.

Figure 1. Schematic—R6 Soil Monitoring System.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 931

can be used to assess soil bulk density and partition visual 

disturbance classes into either compacted or non-compacted categories. Measures of soil strength or porosity 

can also be used as indices of compaction.

Data collected on all transects provides a representative sample of the activity unit. The percent of the 

activity unit in each condition class is calculated by 

determining the proportion of each transect in that class, 

and averaging the proportions of all transects in the 

activity area. Reliability is estimated from the variance 

among estimated transect proportions of each condition 

class. A computer program was developed by the Pacific 

Northwest Research Station to assist field soil scientists 

in processing and summarizing data collected in the field 

(Hazard, Snellgrove, and Geist. 1985).

Collecting and processing soil core data was the most 

time consuming segment of the sampling protocol. A 

computer program to assist in this effort was also developed (Starr and Geist. 1983). Miller, Hazard, and Howes 

(2001) evaluated the precision, accuracy and efficiency 

of four tools for measuring soil bulk density and strength 

to help field soil scientists efficiently plan disturbance 

assessments.

Development of a simple yet statistically sound soil 

disturbance assessment protocol may not seem like a 

significant accomplishment. However, it served a number of purposes. It provided a standard protocol that 

produces information capable of withstanding legal or 

other challenges. Field soil scientists and managers began to think about experimental design as they planned 

soil disturbance monitoring projects. Managers began 

to understand the complexities involved in making soil 

disturbance assessments, that sound and defensible surveys took time, and they could involve considerable costs 

depending on survey objectives. Management needs to 

be involved in planning soil disturbance assessments. 

They must consider the kinds of decisions to be made, 

how information will be used, need for highly precise 

information (risk), and how much they are willing to 

spend to collect the data.

The sampling protocol has been used in a number 

of Forest Service research and operational studies in 

R6. Cochran and Brock (1985) used it in their study of 

the effects of soil compaction on initial height growth 

of ponderosa pine on the Deschutes National Forest in 

central Oregon. Laing and Howes (1988) used it in their 

survey of soil disturbance caused by a feller-buncher 

operation on the Colville National Forest in northeastern 

Washington. Much of the information generated from 

these studies has been used to guide soil management 

efforts within R6.

Sullivan (1987) compiled one of the most complete 

soil disturbance data sets on the impacts of ground-based 

harvesting systems on the Malheur National Forest in 

northeastern Oregon (fig. 2). The sampling protocol was 

used to monitor impacts of tractor yarding and machine 

piling on soils in 24 timber sale units. Forest managers 

were concerned that excessive soil resource damage was 

occurring where these management activities were being 

implemented. Detailed information was also collected 

on soil type, timing of harvest and slash disposal operations, and equipment used. The Forest used information 

from this monitoring effort to adjust its practices. Fuel 

management direction was clarified to lessen the extent 

of slash disposal thus reducing the amount of machine 

piling. Skidding impacts were reduced by calling for 

designation of trails prior to felling. Restoration of those 

units exceeding soil quality standards was called for as 

soon as practicable.

Such useful monitoring information is not obtained 

without cost. Sullivan (1987) also collected cost data for 8 

of the harvest units he monitored. Cost per acre monitored 

ranged from $77 to $259. Total cost per unit ranged from 

$1151 to $2572. Personnel accounted for the majority 

of costs followed by processing of soil cores. Based on 

this information, it is easy to see that monitoring can be 

cost prohibitive when budgets are limited.

Later Partnership Efforts

Beginning in 1990, forest health and wildfire concerns 

became a major issue in the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon. Given the large acreage of overstocked 

stands requiring treatment, mechanical options, as well as 

prescribed fire, had to be considered as possible treatment 

alternatives. Between 1995 and 1997, a cooperative effort 

was initiated by the Pacific Northwest Research Station, 

Oregon State University, and the Wallowa-Whitman 

National Forest to study the economic and environmental 

impacts of fuel reduction practices used in mixed conifer 

stands in northeast Oregon (McIver, 1998). A primary 

objective was to measure effects of harvest activities on 

soils. The study was conducted on the La Grande Ranger 

District near Limber Jim Creek. This area of the District 

contained high fuel loadings, with many stands exhibiting 

fuel model 10 conditions (high potential for crowning, 

spotting, and torching during a wildfire). Six of the units 

consisted of pairs in which one unit of the pair was randomly chosen to be a forwarder unit and the other of the 

pair was chosen to be a skyline unit. At the request of 

the Forest, logs in the seventh unit were yarded with a 

skidder. Soil disturbance results from this unreplicated 

unit were used only for comparison purposes.

Of the seven experimental units, six had total detrimental disturbance levels under 10 percent (fig. 3). 
932 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Not unexpectedly, the unit harvested by conventional 

grapple-skidder contained the greatest detrimental soil 

disturbance. One interesting result was that, in all units, 

soil displacement (removal of topsoil) was the primary 

form of detrimental soil disturbance rather than compaction.

Again this may seem like a simple experiment, yet it 

yielded some very powerful information used locally in 

planning other fuel reduction projects. It demonstrated 

that operators at Limber Jim were able to meet Regional 

soil quality standards by keeping detrimental soil disturbance under 10 percent using cut-to-length timber 

harvest technology. Information generated as part of 

this study helped greatly in predicting effects of similar 

future projects occurring on volcanic ash soils in the 

Blue Mountains.

Given the costs associated with conducting sound 

soil disturbance assessments, alternative methods were 

explored. In 1998, the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest 

proposed using a modification of a system originally 

developed by Weyerhaeuser research scientists in 1979 

and further described by Miller (1988). The system 

defines soil disturbance categories or classes based 

on observable characteristics. It then relates them to 

soil damage defining criteria and established standards 

for soil productivity protection. A seven-class system 

was originally proposed and implemented. Each of the 

classes could be assessed or measured using a variety of 

sampling systems.

In 2000, the USDA/USDI Joint Fire Sciences Program 

initiated a national “fire/fire surrogate” study to evaluate 

effects of four potential fuel management treatments on 

Figure 2. Average Percent 

Detrimental Impact (APDI) 

with 90 Percent Confidence 

Intervals.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 933

several core response variables including soils. Of particular interest was the amount of soil compaction generated 

by mechanical treatments. Given time and budget limitations, qualitative soil disturbance categories developed 

by the Wallowa-Whitman National Forest were used 

and measured on one of the installations in northeastern Oregon instead of using soil cores for bulk density 

determinations. During initial sampling, the number of 

disturbance categories was reduced from seven to four. 

Questions arose regarding the utility of this method as 

a research and monitoring tool. Currently, a cooperative 

study is being carried out by R6 and the Pacific Northwest 

Research Station to evaluate the precision, accuracy, and 

repeatability of such qualitative assessments.

Expanding the Soil 

Disturbance Monitoring 

Partnership

In the Pacific Northwest, there are a number of large 

private industrial forest land owners, public land management agencies, and research organizations interested 

in effects of soil disturbance on the sustainable production of forests and on watershed health. They have been 

loosely affiliated into a “Soil Disturbance Working 

Group” under the auspices of the Northwest Forest Soils 

Council. Scientists from these organizations are working 

together to develop a strategy for achieving uniformity in 

monitoring techniques and reporting soil disturbance for 

operational and research purposes as well as for reporting 

under international sustainability protocols such as the 

Montreal Process (Curran et al., 200X). A primary objective of this effort is to provide technical guidance that 

will facilitate effective communication and comparison 

of operational and research results.

This strategy contains five major components:

Uniform terms for describing soil disturbance,

Cost-effective techniques for monitoring or assessing 

soil disturbance,

Reliable methods to rate soils for risk of compaction, 

rutting, topsoil displacement, and erosion,

Effective approaches for using operational monitoring 

to meet a number of objectives including requirements 

of third-party certification and the Montreal Process,

Objective comparison of current soil disturbance 

guidelines.

The importance of monitoring using a reliable process 

for achieving sustainable soil productivity and watershed 

health is also recognized.

Some significant progress has been made to date under several components of the strategy. R6 is currently 

bringing its soil disturbance monitoring methods more 

in line with the disturbance class approaches used by 

Weyerhaeuser Company and British Columbia Forest 

Service. A four-class system is now being tested on 

two national forests in northeastern Oregon (USDA 

Forest Service, 2001). R6 is currently cooperating with 

Weyerhaeuser Company and the Pacific Northwest 

Research Station to develop standardized models to 

rate soils for their relative degree of risk of incurring 

detrimental soil disturbance as a result of ground-based 

equipment operations. Separate models are being developed for soils east and west of the Cascade crest. Models 

are being calibrated using actual field monitoring data 

and professional experience. A model has also been 

developed to rate soils on the east slope of the Cascade 

Mountains in Washington State for degree of risk of 

damage by wildfire (Wenatchee-Okanogan National 

Forest, 2003). A cooperative effort is currently underway to publish this information and validate it for other 

geographic areas. These models will be used to adjust 

management objectives based on local soil conditions and 

on-site investigations rather than on blanket application 

of a single standard.

Soil risk ratings will also provide the basis for a 

standard Region-wide soil quality monitoring program 

consisting of five major components.

Risk assessment using common soil disturbance category definitions,

Soil management objectives (prescription),

•

•

•

•

•

1.

2.

Figure 3. Percentage of soil area detrimentally disturbed 

among seven experimental units at Limber Jim. *Standard 

assumes 5 percent roads.
934 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Common monitoring protocols,

Maintain common monitoring database, and

Validate/adjust risk ratings and prescriptions based 

on results.

Future Partnership Needs

Although R6 has worked with the Pacific Northwest 

Research Station to test accuracy, precision, and repeatability of qualitative soil disturbance observations, final 

versions of category definitions and assessment protocols have yet to be developed. If common disturbance 

category definitions are the objective, then continued 

coordination among interested parties is essential.

Once soil disturbance category definitions have been 

finalized, a training and certification program for those 

making observations in the field must be developed and 

implemented. Consistency and accuracy of observations 

can be gained only through experience and continuous 

comparison of results collected using more quantitative 

methods. Development of common training programs 

among those groups making soil disturbance assessments 

will also enhance consistency and accuracy; and will 

encourage information sharing.

Relationships between qualitative definitions of soil 

disturbance and quantifiable indices of soil quality need 

to be determined. These indices must reflect physical, 

chemical, and biological processes important to productivity.

Finally, if sustainable forest productivity and watershed health are the ultimate objectives, then links 

between soil disturbance and vegetative growth or hydrologic function need to be established. In all probability, 

these relationships will change between soil type and 

geographic area. Quantification of these relationships 

will require continued strong partnerships between 

researchers and field practitioners in such fields as soil 

science, hydrology, geomorphology, silviculture, and 

range management.

References

Cochran, P.H., and T.Brock. 1985. Soil compaction and initial 

height growth of planted ponderoas pine. USDA Forest 

Service. Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Experiment 

Station. Research Note PNW-434. December 1985.

Curran, M.P., R.E. Miller, S.W. Howes, D.G. Maynard, T.A. 

Terry, R.L. Heninger, T. Niemann, K. VanRees, R.F. Powers 

and S.H.Schoenholtz. 200x. Progress towards more uniform 

assessment and reporting of soil disturbance for operations, 

research, and sustainability protocols. Paper presented at 

10th N.A. Forest Soils Conf. in Sault Ste. Marie, Ontario. 

Being prepared for submission in conference proceedings 

to Journal of Forest Ecology and Management.

3.

4.

5.

Geist, J.Michael, J.W. Hazard, and K.W Seidel. 1989. 

Assessing physical conditions of some Pacific Northwest 

volcanic ash soils after forest harvest. Soil Sci. Soc. Am. 

J. 53:946-950.

Hazard, J.W., and J.M. Geist. 1984. Sampling forest soil 

conditions to assess impacts of management activities. P. 

421-430. In: E. L. Stone (ed.) Forest soils and treatment 

impacts. Proc. 6th North Am. Forest Soils Conf., Knoxville, 

TN. 19-23 June, 1983. Dep. of Forestry, Wildlife, and 

Fisheries, Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN.

Hazard, J.W., J. Snelgrove, and J.M. Geist. 1985. Processing 

data from soil assessment surveys with the computer 

program SOILS. USDA Forest Serv. General Tech. Rep. 

PNW-179. Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Exp. Stn., 

Portland, OR.

Howes, S., J. Hazard, and J.M. Geist. 1983. Guidelines 

for sampling some physical conditions of surface soils. 

USDA Forest Serv. R6-RWM-146-1983. Pacific Northwest 

Region. Portland, OR.

Howes, S.W., 1984. Managing soil compaction – a public land 

management agency perspective. In: Proceedings: Pacific 

Northwest bioenergy systems: policy and applications. May 

10-11, 1984. Portland, OR (no pagination).

Howes, S.W. 1988. Consideration of soil productivity during 

forest management activities: The USDA Forest Service 

approach in the Pacific Northwest. P. 185-190. In J.D. 

Lousier and G.W. Still (eds.) Degradation of Forested 

Land: “Forest Soils at Risk” Proceedings of the 10th B.C. 

Soil Science Workshop. University of British Columbia, 

Vancouver. February, 1986. British Columbia Ministry of 

Forests, Land Management Report. No. 56.

Laing, L.E., and S.W. Howes. 1988. Detrimental soil compaction resulting from a feller buncher and rubber-tired skidder 

timber harvest operation: a case study. P. 191-195. In J.D. 

Lousier and G. W. Still (eds.) Degradation of Forested 

Lands: “Forest Soils at Risk.” Proceedings of the 10th B.C. 

Soil Science Workshop. University of British Columbia, 

Vancouver. February, 1986. British Columbia Ministry of 

Forests Land Management Report 56.

McIver, J., 1998. Economic and environmental effects of fuel 

reduction at Limber Jim. Blue Mountain Natural Resources 

Institute Technical Note, BMNRI-TN-10. April, 1998.

Meurisse, R.T. 1988. Soil productivity protection and improvement: objectives, policy, and standards in the Pacific 

Northwest Region of the Forest Service. P. 63-68. In G.W. 

Slaughter and T. Gasbarro (Eds.). Proc. Alaskan Forest 

Soil Productivity Workshop. USDA Forest Service. Pacific 

Northwest Forest and Range Exp.Sta. General Tech. Rep. 

PNW-GTR-219.

Miller, Richard E., John Hazard, and Steven Howes. 2001. 

Precision, accuracy, and efficiency of four tools for measuring soil bulk density or strength. USDA Forest Service. 

Pacific Northwest Research Station. Research Paper PNWRP-532. April 2001.

Powers, R.F., A.E. Tiarks, and J.R.Boyle. 1998. Assessing soil 

quality: practical standards for sustainable forest productivity in the United States. Soil Science Society of America. 

SSSA Special Publication no. 53.

Starr, G.L., and J.M. Geist. 1983. BDEN: a timesaving 

computer program for calculating soil bulk density and 

water content. USDA Forest Serv. General Tech. Rep. 

PNW-153. Pacific Northwest Forest and Range Exp. Stn., 

Portland, OR.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 935

Sullivan, T.E. 1987. Monitoring soil physical conditions 

on a national forest in Eastern Oregon. P.69-76 In G.W. 

Slaughter and T. Gasbarro (Eds.). Proc. Alaskan Forest 

Soil Productivity Workshop. USDA Forest Service. Pacific 

Northwest Forest and Range Exp. Sta. General Tech. Rep. 

PNW-GTR-219.

USDA Forest Service, 1998. Forest Service Manual, FSM 2520 

(Watershed Protection and Management). R6 Supplement 

No. 2500-98-1, Effective August 24, 1998.

USDA Forest Service, 2001. Interim protocol for assessments 

and management of soil quality conditions, WallowaWhitman National Forest. Mimeo, Version 3.3, September 

2001. Wallowa-Whitman National Forest.

Wenatchee – Okanogan National Forest. 2003. Soil risk assessment technical report. Prepared by PBS Engineering 

and Environmental under Task Announcement 17-01-01C. 

January 2003.
936 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

History of the Partnership

The origin of the Northern Region Landbird 

Monitoring Program (NRLMP), a cooperative effort 

between the United States Forest Service (USFS) and 

the University of Montana, can be traced to a landmark 

meeting held in Atlanta in the fall of 1990. That meeting, 

organized by the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, 

brought together numerous federal agencies and nongovernmental organizations, and other state agencies and 

industry representatives to encourage them to become 

partners in an effort to stem the tide of migratory songbird 

declines. This effort gave birth to what was to become 

“Partners in Flight,” a non-binding cooperative effort 

among hundreds of partner organizations to work toward 

the conservation of most terrestrial bird species. By May 

of 1991, 7 federal agencies had signed an agreement to 

promote the conservation of neotropical migrants. The 

USFS alone pledged $6 million per year for five years 

to the effort, and each of the nine Regions identified approximately $300,000 per year for neotropical migratory 

bird conservation action. The Partners in Flight effort 

represents perhaps one of the greatest coups in the history 

of wildlife biology because it single-handedly moved 

Northern Region Landbird Monitoring Program: A USFSUniversity of Montana Partnership Designed to Provide 

Both Short-term and Long-term Feedback for Land 

Managers

R. Hutto, Professor and Director, Avian Science Center, Division of Biological Sciences, 

University of Montana, Missoula, MT

Skip Kowalski, Wildlife Program Leader, USDA Forest Service Northern Region, 

Missoula, MT

Abstract—The Northern Region Landbird Monitoring Program (NRLMP) began in 

1990 as a cooperative effort between the United States Forest Service (USFS) and the 

University of Montana. The combination of a research-oriented perspective from the 

University and a management-needs perspective from the National Forests within the 

Northern Region led to the realization that landbirds as a group might serve as a powerful 

tool to address more widespread monitoring needs in the USFS Northern Region. The 

program quickly evolved from one that was put into place specifically to use federally 

earmarked dollars to address neotropical migratory bird conservation, into a more 

general region-wide monitoring program. Today, the program is uniquely designed to 

provide two kinds of monitoring activity—one is conducted during even-numbered years 

and is designed to shed light on the long-term population trends and habitat relationships of numerous landbird species within the region; the other is conducted during 

odd-numbered years and is designed to shed light on the ecological effects of various 

kinds of land use activity. The University of Montana had (and continues to provide) 

the expertise needed to handle the design, training, data management, analysis, and 

information dissemination components, while the USFS had (and continues to provide) 

the funding needed to hire seasonal technicians who conduct the actual bird monitoring and it has the management needs that serve as the primary driver of short-term 

management effects assessments. It is the short-term management effects monitoring 

and the habitat-relationships information that have generated the most support for the 

monitoring program within the USFS. Overall, the program is widely viewed as useful 

and successful, but obstacles that still need to be overcome include (1) the incorporation 

of monitoring results into a more formal adaptive management cycle within the USFS, 

and (2) the inclusion of additional state, federal, and private corporation partners so 

that the program emerges as one part of a more comprehensive statewide (or broader) 

landbird monitoring program, and (3) the recognition that monitoring buy-in involves 

support for more than the field effort involved with data collection.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 937

the conservation of nongame wildlife into a position of 

prominence in management circles without ever once 

using the word “nongame.”

Because Hutto had acquired considerable experience 

with migratory landbird research in both the western 

United States and western Mexico, he was approached 

by the USFS Northern Region Wildlife Program to help 

develop a neotropical migratory bird conservation action 

plan for that region. By the time the USFS Chief directed 

the USFS Regions to develop multi-year plans about how 

to use the earmarked funds; the Northern Region already 

had a proposal in hand. Although these action plans 

took somewhat different forms in each Forest Service 

Region, the Northern Region proposal focused on long 

term monitoring and habitat relationships. In retrospect, 

this partnership has demonstrated that academic partners 

can be of real use to government agencies; academics are 

generally very good at the synthesis of current information, and are also relatively good at developing proposals 

for meaningful work.

Early on, we organized a regional coordinating group 

that included personnel from Forest Service Research to 

refine aspects of our original proposal. This group gradually added interested partners and eventually evolved 

into the statewide Partners in Flight coordinating group. 

The first order of business for the coordinating group 

was to plan a meeting to discuss the development of a 

handbook of existing information on migrants (Dobkin 

1992), and the development of a pilot project to test the 

efficacy of on-road vs. off-road counts (Hutto and others 

1995). As the University partner, Hutto proceeded to plan, 

organize, and hire crews for the pilot field project and 

for a pilot effort to implement the program by 1994, by 

which time all permanent transects were to be in place 

and up and running.

It did not take long for us to realize that a program to 

monitor landbirds for their own sake would carry very 

little weight in management circles. Remember, this 

was still in the era where “nongame” issues were pretty 

much a joke in management-oriented societies and management circles, and the revolution in wildlife biology 

that occurred because of the emergence of the Society 

for Conservation Biology had only just begun. If it had 

not been for the foresight of a few high level managers, 

and if money had not been identified specifically for 

neotropical migratory bird conservation, we suspect 

that very little would have been spent on their behalf 

in 1990. Fortunately, the combination of a researchoriented perspective from the University partner and a 

management-needs perspective from the National Forests 

within the Northern Region led equally rapidly to the 

realization that landbirds might serve well as a powerful 

indicator group to address the broader, legally mandated 

monitoring needs in the USFS Northern Region. 

Specifically, we recognized that the bird monitoring program might help meet mandates that emerged 

from federal legislation such as the National Forest 

Management Act, which requires monitoring activity in 

order to assess whether vertebrate populations are being 

maintained throughout the individual National Forests.

There are a number of reasons why birds should be 

more widely recognized for their utility as effective 

monitoring tools. As outlined in greater detail elsewhere 

(Hutto 1998, Hutto and Young 2002, Hutto 2004), (1) 

landbirds are not only the most visible of vertebrate 

species, they also advertise their presence and identity 

through vocalizations. Thus, systematically collected 

field data are much easier and less expensive to gather 

for landbirds than they are for traditionally managed 

species that require trapping, radio tagging, locating, and 

so forth; (2) a single monitoring method can produce 

information on numerous species (a trained field crew 

can collect information on patterns of bird occurrence 

for well over 100 species using a single, inexpensive, 

point-based survey method). Sure, many of those species 

will be too infrequently detected to be monitored well, 

but having to manage for the maintenance of those that 

can be monitored will probably bring us much closer to 

maintaining populations of all vertebrates than would 

the still prevalent approach of managing entirely on the 

basis of a select few indicator (mostly game) species; (3) 

having to manage for the maintenance of many landbird 

species will force movement toward management at 

broader spatial scales. This is because, by using birds 

as monitoring tools, the list of monitored species will 

now be large enough and ecologically broad enough to 

reveal some species that will benefit from, and others 

that will be harmed by, any proposed land-use activity. On the surface, the use of so many species for 

monitoring purposes would appear to lead managers 

into a no-win situation because any proposed land-use 

alternative will hurt something, but the way out of this 

apparent dilemma comes from expanding one’s focus 

beyond a specific project area. Clear recognition that 

local populations of some species will invariably be 

harmed by any proposed land-use action forces one to 

consider broader landscapes when thinking about the 

maintenance of populations. It is only at the landscape 

level that we can provide enough of each landscape 

element to maintain the populations of, and honestly 

claim “no effect” on, all vertebrate species. The local 

extinction of a species due to some land management 

activity is fine as long as the suitability for that same 

species is expected to increase at the same time in another part of the landscape (due to some other land-use 

activity or to ecological succession, for example).
938 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Once the benefits associated with using birds as 

monitoring tools became better appreciated, the program quickly evolved from one that was put into place 

specifically to use federally earmarked dollars to address neotropical migratory bird conservation, into a 

more general region-wide monitoring program using 

both migratory and nonmigratory landbird species. We 

must add that an on-going in-house education effort is 

necessary because it is especially difficult for people to 

understand that ours is not a bird monitoring program; it 

is a program that uses birds as a monitoring tool (Hutto 

and Young 2002)!

There is, of course, the ever-present threat of not being 

able to commit to the program when money is especially 

tight. If there were ever a need for strong leadership at the 

regional level and a need for regional coordination, this 

is it. Broad-scale monitoring is one endeavor that would 

not work well if left up to individual Forests or Districts 

to implement. Most Districts and Forests would probably 

have little or no desire to do such monitoring on their 

own, and even if they did, without regional coordination, 

there would be little hope for the development of a system 

that would allow data to be merged in a way that might 

allow for collectively meaningful analyses.

So why is it that the USFS did not work with its own 

research arm to do develop a monitoring program within 

the USFS system? The answer is not entirely clear, but 

from the perspective of congressional appropriations, 

there is a distinction between research (conducted by the 

research arm of the USFS) and monitoring (conducted 

by the management arm of the USFS). This rigid distinction may have hampered the development of a first-class, 

well-funded, in-house monitoring program. In addition, 

personnel commitments and the difficulty of accepting 

“new” Research Station priorities during austere times 

probably contributed to the way this particular monitoring program unfolded within the Northern Region. 

Expertise was also an issue in this particular instance. 

Because the federal earmark involved the development 

of conservation plans for “neotropical migrants,” and 

because very few research biologists within or outside 

the USFS had worked with birds as defined that particular way, it was natural to approach a University that 

harbored an individual who had amassed considerable 

experience with that group of birds. Thus, the region 

and the university came together as partners, and the 

partnership has evolved into a unique formal agreement 

under which the University works cooperatively with 

the USFS to “...improve the ability of the Forest Service 

to monitor population trends and to understand habitat 

relationships of landbirds across the Northern Region and 

adjacent lands” and to “(1) increase the understanding 

of landbird ecology, (2) understand the strengths and 

limitations of landbird monitoring efforts, (3) monitor 

the effects of Forest Service management activities on 

landbirds, and (4) use this information to help revise 

Forest Plans.” In turn, it is intended that the University 

“...use this information to further education through 

the development or updating of curricula related to bird 

ecology and conservation.”

That USFS-University of Montana agreement has 

served as the primary stimulus to create a regentially 

approved Avian Science Center on the University of 

Montana campus, which will facilitate growth toward a 

more comprehensive multi-agency monitoring program 

for the state as a whole, and will allow us to build a 

more rapid and effective web-based mode of information 

dissemination. By attaining full partnership of all organizations that are required by law (or simply desire) to 

conduct monitoring to assess the effects of their land use 

practices, we will have achieved a very powerful working model. Indeed, the involvement of numerous agency 

partners coupled with the central role of University 

research personnel as data collector, data analyst, and 

information disseminator helps the agency partners shed 

the difficulty of having their required monitoring activity appear to be self serving. University academies also 

house the highest possible level of research expertise 

and carry the highest level of credibility among peers. 

These benefits associated with the partnership cannot be 

overemphasized.

Overall Design of the 

Monitoring Program

During the design phase of this monitoring program, 

we suspected that many fledgling monitoring programs 

had probably come and gone because of a failure to attain 

the support needed for a long-term commitment to monitoring. In fact, our perception of the main weakness in 

monitoring programs was, and continues to be, that they 

tend to be heavy on the data collection and slow or weak 

on the usefulness of the data collected and on the transfer 

of information related to results from the monitoring effort. We, therefore, designed the NRLMP to circumvent 

that potential problem by de-emphasizing the long-term 

monitoring component and building a new emphasis on 

what could be called a “habitat relationships monitoring” component and a “short-term management effects 

monitoring” component. Today, the program is uniquely 

designed to provide both short- and long-term monitoring activity. The long-term, population trend monitoring 

component is conducted during even-numbered years 

and is designed to uncover long-term population trends 

and habitat relationships of numerous landbird species 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 939

within the region (see example web output in fig. 1). The 

short-term components are drawn from bird-habitat relationships data that emerge from the long-term monitoring 

component and from separate more focused monitoring 

efforts (conducted during odd-numbered years), and 

both are designed to shed light on the ecological effects 

of various kinds of land use activity.

More detailed description of the design of this monitoring program, and a dialogue concerning aspects of the 

design are available elsewhere (Hutto and Young 2002, 

Ellingson and Lukacs 2003, Hutto and Young 2003), 

but to summarize the main points here, the NRLMP 

involves the breeding season monitoring of all diurnal 

(primarily forest) landbird species that can be detected 

through a single (point-count) methodology. The fullscale long-term monitoring effort involves single visits 

in every other year to about 350 permanently marked 

10-point roadside or trailside transects that were originally positioned in a geographically stratified fashion 

throughout the region. Transects are positioned primarily within United States Forest Service lands (Northern 

Region), but some are positioned within the lands owned 

or managed by other partners that include Plum Creek 

Timber Company, Potlatch Corporation, Bureau of Land 

Management, United States Fish and Wildlife Service, 

National Park Service, Montana Department of Fish 

Wildlife and Parks, and the Confederated Salish and 

Kootenai Tribes. The points provide a representative 

sample of all vegetation cover types that occur within 

the region, including managed vegetation cover types. 

The inclusion of managed lands is the key to gaining 

inference about land-use effects from a retrospective, 

Figure 1. Example of web-based output of population trend data for a single landbird species, 

the Yellow Warbler. A simple histogram depicting the mean number of birds detected 

per point (across the 846 points from which this particular species was detected at least 

once in the six-year period) probably gives a reasonable picture of the status of this bird 

species until such time that we have enough years to conduct a more meaningful longterm trend analysis.
940 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

observational data set. Simply put, if we categorize what 

is admittedly a continuously variable world into discrete 

vegetation types, and if we include both heavily managed 

and less heavily managed lands in the groupings, we 

can gain insight into land management effects through 

comparative analyses among categories.

By including vegetation data from the area immediately surrounding each long-term monitoring sample 

point, we were able to build meaningful habitat-relationship models for more than 50 bird species in a matter 

of several years (Hutto and Young 1999; see example 

web-based output in fig. 2). And by including managed 

lands in the mix, we have been able to use comparative 

analyses to explore the effects of management activity 

on birds. While one can always argue that comparative 

analyses are of limited value, we are encouraged by 

the fact that the effects of partial-cut timber harvesting 

(as merely one example of a managed land type) as 

revealed through a retrospective analysis of data from 

our long-term monitoring points were the same as those 

revealed through a separate alternate-year experimental 

effort that involved a more formal comparison of a large 

number of replicate treatment and control sites drawn 

from throughout the forested parts of the region (Young 

and Hutto 2002).

The permanently marked, long-term monitoring points 

also avail themselves to before-after/control-impact 

(BACI) investigative approaches, which are generally 

assumed to be the most powerful and rapid way to gain 

knowledge of treatment effects (Stewart-Oaten and others 1986). For example, we were able to use a BACI 

approach to study the effects of the fires of 2000 in the 

Figure 2. Example of web-based output of habitat relationships data for a single landbird 

species, the Brown Creeper. The mean number of detections within a 100-m radius 

around a survey point shows the bird to be relatively commonly detected in (and 

probably relatively more abundant in) cedar/hemlock forest types. Note the sample 

sizes associated with each vegetation type.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 941

Bitterroot Valley, Montana, by virtue of the fact that we 

had about 100 points scattered through the burned area, 

some of which burned and some of which did not burn 

(fig. 3). It is nearly impossible to study the effects of severe disturbance events such as crown fires, hurricanes, 

and floods in a truly experimental arena, so the use of 

data from established monitoring points both before and 

after the disturbance will be as good as it can get to gain 

insight on the effects of such events.

Again, by design, we survey permanently marked 

long-term monitoring points every other year, which 

allows for a more focused monitoring effort related to 

issues of immediate management concern during the 

years when we do not collect data from the permanently 

marked points. As discussed elsewhere (Hutto and Young 

2002, Hutto 2004), the monitoring crew is large enough 

(one seasonal technician per forest) to allow us to work 

with numbers of replicate sites that are greater than all 

but one of 95 studies published in various ecological, 

ornithological and conservation journals over the past 25 

years (Sallabanks and others 2000). Thus, the power of 

this program to generate statistically meaningful data is 

directly linked with the commitment to maintain a large 

field crew during the alternate years, which we devote 

to gathering quasi-experimental data on the effects of 

various land-use practices (e.g., grazing, timber harvesting, prescribed fires) by positioning new sample point 

locations within treatment and “control” sites that are 

replicated throughout the region (fig. 4).

We view the short-term monitoring component to 

be a major strength of the overall monitoring program, 

but acknowledge that two major challenges will always 

accompany the inclusion of alternate-year, short-term 

effects monitoring as part of an overall monitoring program: (1) it can be difficult reaching a consensus among 

individual National Forests in the Northern Region 

regarding the focus of alternate-year work, and (2) the 

time, labor, and logistics associated with having to hit the 

ground running with a newly designed monitoring effort 

on an every-other-year basis can be daunting.

At this point, we should re-emphasize that the NRLMP 

emerged out of a real partnership—the University of 

Montana had (and continues to provide) the expertise 

needed to handle the design, training, data management, 

analysis, and information dissemination components, 

while the USFS had (and continues to provide) the funding needed to hire seasonal technicians who conduct the 

actual bird monitoring and it has the management needs 

that serve as the primary driver of short-term management effects monitoring.

Obstacles to Overcome

Overall, the program is widely viewed as useful and 

successful, but obstacles that still need to be overcome 

include (1) the incorporation of monitoring results into 

a more formal adaptive management cycle within the 

USFS, (2) the inclusion of additional state, federal, and 

Figure 4. Example results from an alternate-year study 

designed to test the efficacy of restoration cutting and 

burning on landbird species. Note that the Townsend’s 

Warbler is affected negatively and equally by experimental 

restoration treatment and natural wildfire disturbance, while 

the Hairy Woodpecker is affected positively and similarly 

by the treatment and natural disturbance. Note also the 

relatively large sample sizes (numbers of entirely different 

treatment and control plots scattered across numerous 

Forests in the Northern Region) associated with this 

alternate-year study. The utility of birds as meaningful tools 

for monitoring restoration effects should be apparent.

Figure 3. The use of a before-after/control-impact approach 

to study the effects of fire on landbirds produced results 

such as this one on Mountain Bluebird, a species that 

clearly responded positively to the sever fires of 2000 in the 

Bitterroot Valley, Montana (data from Smucker 2003).
942 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

private corporation partners so that the program emerges 

as one part of a more comprehensive statewide (or 

broader) landbird monitoring program, and (3) recognition that monitoring buy-in involves support for more 

than the field effort involved with data collection.

With respect to adaptive management, we have noted 

elsewhere (Hutto and Young 2002) that “if there is one 

weakness associated with adaptive management in practice, it is the lack of a formal involvement of monitoring 

participants in the adaptive management loop, where participants have a chance to present results that might bear 

on future land-use plans.” Findings from the NRLMP that 

we believe have been successful at influencing policy 

have done so because the information filtered informally 

into management circles by way of discussions at our annual meetings with USFS Forest biologists. Monitoring 

results need to be better integrated into a formal management planning cycle that involves 1) gathering long-term 

and short-term monitoring data, 2) informing planners 

of results, and 3) discussing whether the results merit a 

consideration of changes in land-use plans.

With respect to expansion of the program to include all 

land-owners within the state or larger region, full financial participation in regional monitoring by prospective 

partners has been difficult to achieve. Ironically, significant financial participation by a broad cross-section of 

partners in the Northern Rocky Mountain Region was 

probably hampered from the start because (federally 

earmarked) USFS dollars were used to get the NRLMP 

up and running. These earmarked dollars were certainly 

critical to the development of a landbird monitoring 

program within the agency, but because the program 

received most of its funding from the USFS, we naturally 

labeled it as a “Northern Region” program. This label, 

in turn, fueled the perception that ours was exclusively 

a Forest Service program. We currently receive support 

for a broader monitoring effort from a variety of partners, 

and we now refer to most of our monitoring activities 

in the broader context of a multi-partner coordinated 

statewide monitoring effort. Nonetheless, had we labeled 

the monitoring effort as a pilot “statewide coordinated 

bird monitoring program” from the outset, we suspect it 

might have been easier to bring other partners on board 

sooner. We are now on the cusp of an expanded partnership between the University of Montana and numerous 

partners who see the benefit of participating in a coordinated monitoring effort, but only time will tell. Ideally, 

this and other state programs that are currently underway 

can evolve into even more ecologically based multistate programs that use geographically broad ecological 

units, such as the North American Bird Conservation 

Initiative’s “Bird Conservation Regions” as a basis for 

monitoring, evaluating, and reporting.

With respect to the issue that effective monitoring 

involves support for more than field work, potential funding partners generally fail to appreciate that support for 

monitoring means not just support for field technicians 

to collect data, but support for as comprehensive a level 

of data analysis as desirable and as sufficient a level of 

information transfer as needed to make a real difference. 

Information transfer in particular (getting the results 

out and in usable form) is precisely that aspect of the 

program that is needed to generate program support, and 

is the only aspect of the program that provides a voice 

for important monitoring results, but it does not get the 

attention or funding that it should. How many papers 

in this symposium, for example, deal with information 

transfer as it relates to monitoring programs? Because 

monitoring generally conjures up images of little more 

than an unending process of amassing data, is it any wonder monitoring is viewed as having little utility, or that 

such programs tend to have a limited impact on existing 

management? Information syntheses and information 

transfer (education) is never as high a priority as it needs 

to be with monitoring programs. We would even argue 

that because we already have more than enough definitive 

“monitoring” results to pass along to those who might 

find those results useful for their own decision making, 

we should devote more time and money to toward the 

synthesis of existing information. In addition, education 

about monitoring results includes education not just 

within the partner organizations themselves, but outside 

the agencies as well. What good does it do if the public 

does not fully understand, and is not fully supportive of, 

forest restoration plans, for example? The public-at-large 

elects politicians who, in turn, have the most powerful 

influence on policy, so all those elements of education 

need to be built into an effective monitoring program, 

and we would suggest that most monitoring programs 

(including our own) have considerable work to do on 

that front.

References

Dobkin, D. S. 1992. Neotropical migrant landbirds in the 

Northern Rockies and Great Plains. USDA For.Serv.

Northern Region, Publ. No. R1-93-34, Missoula, MT.

Ellingson, A. R., and P. M. Lukacs. 2003. Improving methods 

for regional landbird monitoring: a reply to Hutto and 

Young. Wildlife Society Bulletin 31:896-902.

Hutto, R. L. 1998. Using landbirds as an indicator species 

group. Pages 75-92 in Avian conservation: research and 

management (J. M. Marzluff and R. Sallabanks, Eds.). 

Island Press, Covelo, CA.

Hutto, R. L. 2004. Northern Region Landbird Monitoring 

Program: a program designed to monitor more than longterm population trends. USDA For.Serv.Gen.Tech.Rep. 

PSW-GTR-191.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 943

Hutto, R. L., S. J. Hejl, J. F. Kelly, and S. M. Pletschet. 1995. 

A comparison of bird detection rates derived from on-road 

versus off-road point counts in northern Montana. Pages 

103-110 in Monitoring bird populations by point counts 

(C. J. Ralph, J. R. Sauer, and S. Droege, Eds.). USFS Gen. 

Tech. Rep. PSW-GTR-149, Albany, CA.

Hutto, R. L., and J. S. Young. 1999. Habitat relationships of 

landbirds in the Northern Region, USDA Forest Service. 

USDA For.Serv.Gen.Tech.Rep. RMRS-GTR-32:1-72.

Hutto, R. L., and J. S. Young. 2002. Regional landbird monitoring: perspectives from the northern Rocky Mountains. 

Wildlife Society Bulletin 30:738-750.

Hutto, R. L., and J. S. Young. 2003. On the design of 

monitoring programs and the use of population indices: a 

reply to Ellingson and Lukacs. Wildlife Society Bulletin 

31:903-910.

Sallabanks, R., E. B. Arnett, and J. M. Marzluff. 2000. An 

evaluation of research on the effects of timber harvest on 

bird populations. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28:1144-1155.

Smucker, K. M. 2003. Changes in bird abundance and species 

composition in a coniferous forest following a mixed-severity wildfire.

Stewart-Oaten, A., W. W. Murdoch, and K. R. Parker. 1986. 

Environmental impact assessment: “psuedoreplication” in 

time? Ecology 67:929-940.

Young, J. S., and R. L. Hutto. 2002. Use of a landbird 

monitoring database to explore effects of partial-cut timber 

harvesting. Forest Science 48:373-378.
944 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Introduction

Compliance with environmental laws and the 

practice of adaptive management require ecological 

systems to be closely monitored to assess the effects 

of different management practices and various land 

uses. However, few examples exist of successful 

environmental monitoring programs and the essential 

components of such programs have only recently 

been articulated (NRC 1995, Noon 2002; table 1). 

All steps in the development of a successful monitoring program are important (table1), but perhaps none 

is as important as the selection of what to measure. 

Even if a monitoring program is fully funded and 

implemented for many years, it will fail if the wrong 

attributes were selected for measurement. Thus, the 

ultimate success or failure of the monitoring program 

may be determined by this one step.

We consider an indicator to be any measurable attribute that provides insights into environmental conditions 

that extend beyond its own measurement. Indicators are 

usually surrogates for properties or system responses 

that are too difficult or costly to measure directly 

(Leibowitz and Hyman 1999), and indicators differ 

from estimators in that functional relationships between 

the indicator and the various ecological attributes are 

generally unknown (McKelvey and Pearson 2001). 

Not all indicators are equally informative—one of the 

key challenges to a monitoring program is to select for 

measurement those attributes whose values (or trends) 

provide insights into ecological integrity at the scale of 

the ecosystem. Pragmatic considerations alone dictate 

The Process of Indicator Selection

Barry R. Noon, Department of Fishery and Wildlife Biology, and Graduate Degree program 

in Ecology Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO

Kevin S. McKelvey, U.S.D.A. Forest Service, Missoula, MT

Abstract—Of all the steps in monitoring, choosing the correct indicators is arguably 

the most important. The challenge is obvious: among all the possible attributes of an 

ecosystem that can be measured, select a small number whose measurement will tell 

you something about all of the unmeasured attributes and processes. Even if a monitoring program is fully funded and implemented for many years, it will fail if the wrong 

indicators were selected. Yet establishing a strong logical basis for indicator selection is 

often overlooked. It is not unusual to discover that great thought and deliberation have 

gone into how, when, and where to measure a given indicator, but little discussion of 

why that particular attribute is being measured, what magnitude of change needs to 

be detected, and what the indicator tells you about unmeasured components of the 

ecosystem. Further adding to the challenge is the fact that there is no prior reason to 

expect agreement between scientists, managers, and the public on those attributes 

of ecological systems most logical and important to measure. How can one narrow 

down the field of all possible attributes and reach agreement on what to measure? 

Unfortunately, science provides limited guidance because no body of ecological theory 

or empiricism exists to precisely guide indicator selection. We therefore contend that 

partnerships are critically important to the development of prior agreements between 

multiple parties. Critical to this process is the collaborative development of common 

paradigms concerning how ecosystems are conceptualized. We believe this is best accomplished if scientists and managers collaborate in the following steps: 1) develop a 

conceptual model which reflects the hierarchial structure of the ecological system to 

be managed; 2) view the environmental hierarchy as a set of filters which constrain the 

plant and animal species observed on the ground; 3) identify the collection of traits 

of a set of focal species that reflect the desired states of the environmental filters; 4) 

focus on the factors that adversely affect the state of the environmental filters (in other 

words, take a stressor-based approach to monitoring). These steps should lead to a 

logical group of focal species and stressors to be monitored.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 945

that only a small number of indicators can possibly 

be measured. However, strategies and processes for 

selecting ecological indicators are complex and poorly 

developed (Barber 1994, NRC 1995).

On way to think of indicator selection is as a filtering 

process. The goal is to subject all the potential measurement variables to a logic filter that allows passage of 

only those attributes which provide comprehensive and 

reliable inference to the status of the managed ecosystem. Candidate attributes include measures of ecological 

processes (for example, primary productivity, rates of 

nutrient cycling), structural and compositional elements 

of ecosystems (for example, distribution and abundance 

of vegetation community types and seral stages), and 

species. What these sets of attributes have in common 

is that information on their status and trends provide 

insights into the status and trend of the larger ecological 

system to which they belong.

Developing the criteria that constitute the fabric of 

the filter is difficult—the scientific knowledge needed 

to guide this process has generally not been synthesized 

with monitoring questions in mind. It is clear, however, 

that the nature of the criteria will vary according the 

types of indicators considered. For example, the criteria 

for indicators of physical processes will differ from 

those for biological processes. Further, within the class 

of biological indicators, the criteria for indicator species 

selection will differ from those for indicators that reflect 

scale-dependent structural and compositional aspects of 

the environment.

Most of the relational information collected in the 

biological sciences is based on correlation. While often 

very practical and useful, dependence on correlational 

relationships is dangerous in the development of indicators. There are a number of pitfalls associated with such 

analyses. First, it is very difficult to infer causal relationships from empirical correlations. The fact that many 

ecological attributes co-vary, a property which forms the 

logical basis for an indicator-based approach, requires 

additional logical structures beyond simple correlation 

to determine those elements that are mechanistically 

linked to specific ecological attributes of interest. As an 

example, plethodontid salamanders have been shown 

to be strongly correlated to canopy closure (Welsh and 

Lind 1995) but, mechanistically, they are linked to cool 

moist understory conditions (Welsh and Droege 2001). 

Thus, in coastal redwood forests, where moisture stress is 

limited, correlations to canopy closure disappear (Diller 

and Wallace 1994). Because the relationship between 

salamander densities and canopy closure is correlational 

rather than mechanistic, it would only work sporatically 

as a salamander indicator. Secondly, even those elements 

that are mechanistically important must be evaluated 

within the context of the systems in which they exist. 

Whether a certain density of an organism is considered 

beneficial or problematic is entirely dependent on the 

context in which it exists.

Selecting indicators that reflect meaningful ecological 

change is further complicated by the dynamic, stochastic, 

and spatially heterogeneous nature of natural systems. 

Further, many changes that occur in space and time are 

not a consequence of human-induced impacts, and many 

are not amenable to management intervention. For example, at least three kinds of changes are intrinsic to natural 

systems: stochastic variation, successional trends following natural disturbance, and cyclic variation (Noon 2002). 

Potential indicators that vary by orders of magnitude, due 

either to cyclic or stochastic dynamics will likely make 

poor indicators even if they have strong mechanistic ties 

to the larger ecosystem. As an example, snowshoe hare 

are the only common winter prey species in the 1 kg 

weight range in many boreal forests, and therefore are 

essential to the larger predator community. However, 10-

year population oscillations (Elton and Nicholson 1942, 

Keith and Brand 1979, Boutin and others 1995) mean 

that several decades are required to characterize these 

oscillations such that trend could be computed.

Of most interest to monitoring programs are extrinsically driven changes to ecological indicators that arise 

as a consequence of some human action. Concern arises 

Table 1. Steps in the design of a prospective environmental monitoring program (from Noon 2002).

Characterize the anticipated stressors and disturbances according to the attributes of frequency, 

magnitude, and selectivity.

List the ecological processes, resources and species affected by the stressors or disturbances and 

the spatial scale at which they operate.

Ordinally rank the stressors according to their degree of impact and/or degree of irreversible 

consequences.

Develop conceptual models of the ecological system—outline the pathways from stressors to 

ecological effects at the appropriate spatial scale of the ecosystem.

Select an “optimal” set of condition indicators that reflect the action of the stressors prior to 

irreversible change.

Determine detection limits for the ecological indicators.

Establish critical decision values for the indicators (values that ‘trigger’ a management response).

Establish clear connection to the management decision making process.

.

2.

.

4.

.

6.

7.

8.
946 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

when extrinsic factors, acting singly or in combination 

with intrinsic factors, drive ecosystems outside the 

bounds of sustainable variation. Thus, one goal of a 

monitoring program is to select indicators that discriminate between extrinsic and intrinsic drivers of change. 

That is, we seek indicators that allow us to filter out the 

effects of intrinsic variation or cycles (background noise) 

from the effects of additive, human-induced patterns of 

change (the signal we want to detect).

If the purpose of the monitoring program is to provide an early warning of ecosystem decline (or signs 

of improvement), then its success depends upon having selected an appropriate indicator or indicators, and 

knowledge of how much change in the value of the 

indicator signals a significant biological change. By 

itself, however, a monitoring program cannot (1) unambiguously ascertain the cause of a change (2) help 

decide on how much change is acceptable (in other 

words, is the observed change still within the range of 

acceptable variation?), (3) decide on threshold values of 

the indicator that trigger specific management actions 

or, (4) avoid false alarms. Specifically, because indicator activity cannot be expected to translate into precise 

understandings of most unmeasured elements, the simple 

idea of triggering specific management response based 

on the measured level of an indicator likely will likely 

prove ineffective.

Given the need to choose elements that are mechanistically linked to complex stochastic processes and 

structures, indicators cannot be selected without the 

logical rigor of carefully conceived ecological models 

of the system to be monitored. However, such models 

should reflect the fact that sustained ecosystems maintain 

the dynamic variations of key state variables with stable 

bounds (Chapin and others 1996). Unfortunately, the best 

state variables to monitor and their ‘normal’ bounds of 

variation are poorly known for most systems. As a result, 

monitoring should be an adaptive process designed to 

obtain accurate and precise estimates of the indicators 

and at the same time testing the validity of the conceptual 

model that lead to the current indicator choices.

Here we provide details concerning the four steps to 

effective indicator choice: 1) develop a conceptual model 

which reflects the hierarchical structure of the ecological system to be managed; 2) view the environmental 

hierarchy as a set of filters which constrain the plant and 

animal species observed on the ground; 3) identify the 

collection of traits of a set of focal species that reflect the 

desired states of the environmental filters; 4) focus on the 

factors that adversely affect the state of the environmental 

filters (in other words, take a stressor-based approach to 

monitoring). We focus on species to provide guidance 

to indicator selection for both pragmatic and scientific 

reasons. Pragmatically, we want to take advantage of all 

the species abundance/distribution data that are already 

available and continue to be collected. Scientifically, 

we want to build on the importance of the evolutionary 

connections between species traits and environmental 

attributes (Kolasa 1989 and Poff 1997).

Methods

Developing Conceptual Models

To select indicators that reflect the key elements of 

ecological systems—composition, structure and function—requires well-developed conceptual models of the 

managed ecosystem (Barber 1994, NRC 1995, 2000, 

Manley and others 2000, Noon 2002). The conceptual 

model(s) outlines the interconnections among ecosystem components, the strength, and direction of those 

linkages, and the attributes that characterize the state 

of the system. The model should demonstrate how the 

system “works,” with particular emphasis on anticipated system responses to human-induced stresses. The 

model should also indicate the pathways by which the 

system accommodates natural disturbances and what 

system attributes provide resilience to disturbance. 

These processes could be portrayed by illustrating the 

acceptable bounds of variation of system components, 

and normal patterns of variation in input and output 

among the model elements.

To address all the factors mentioned above, the conceptual model must explicitly incorporate the nested, 

spatial structure of ecosystems (Allen and Hoekstra 

1999, Pickett and Candenasso 2002). Each level of the 

hierarchy is defined by a set of state variables which yield 

scale-defined criteria based on the principle of constraint 

(Allen and Hoekstra 1992). By state variables we mean 

those habitat conditions expressed at multiple scales that 

influence the distribution and abundance of species. The 

upper levels of the hierarchy define the boundary conditions, and thus constrain, the levels below. Constraint 

arises because the hierarchial levels, or filters, determine 

the type of ecological community that will be observed. 

This occurs via a process of filtering out those species 

whose traits are incompatible with the state of the environmental filters.

Because of uncertainty over the structure and dynamics of ecosystems, reaching agreement on a single 

conceptual model to guide indicator selection is unlikely. 

Therefore, competing models are likely but not undesirable. Multiple competing models provide a formal 

expression of ecological uncertainty. As data accumulate from the monitoring program, they can be used to 

discriminate among competing models and the pool of 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 947

potential models will decline over time. This will also 

lead to convergence on a ‘best’ indicator set.

Viewing the Environment as a Set of 

Hierarchial Filters

We build off of two well-established facts in ecology: 

1) species are deterministically linked to environmental 

factors (in other words, suitable habitat), and 2) the 

mechanism for this deterministic linkage is the presence 

of specific behavior, life-history, and morphological 

adaptations. In addition, we assert that the environment 

is hierarchically structured in terms of physical, chemical, and biological elements and processes (Allen and 

Hoekstra 1992). Because these elements and processes 

provide the context for the adaptative relationships 

between organism and environment, the organism-environment linkage is also scale dependent (Poff 1997).

An ecological hierarchy is a system of interconnected 

elements and processes wherein the higher levels in the 

hierarchy constrain lower levels (Allen and Starr 1982, 

O’Neill and others 1986). Within a hierarchically structured ecosystem, levels are distinguished by differences 

in their characteristic process rates or spatial scales. Once 

position in the hierarchy is identified, it is necessary to 

look both to larger scales to understand the context and 

to smaller scales to understand the mechanism that give 

rise to the observed patterns (Allen and Hoekstra 1992). 

The most well-known ecological hierarchy describes the 

levels of biological organization—that is, the top-down 

progression from biomes to genes within individual 

organisms. However, in this paper we refer to a hierarchy 

of landscape scales ranging from microhabitats to entire 

watersheds or basins. Following Keddy (1992) and Poff 

(1997), we refer to the different spatial scales as habitat 

filters that constrain the expression of species composition and relative abundance at lower scales. Each scale 

in the hierarchy is defined by a combination of physical 

and biotic variables that act as constraints on the regional 

species pool (fig. 1).

The relationship between a species adaptive traits and 

environmental factors provides the basis of the landscape 

filter theory of Poff (1997). Each level within the spatial hierarchy effectively eliminates any species whose 

functional attributes do not allow it to pass through the 

filter. Biotic interactions are also a potential filter that 

operates at the lower levels of the hierarchy (Poff 1997). 

Only species which pass through all the nested filters will 

be observed as a member of the local ecological community. This model is the basis on which to predict how 

changes in environmental conditions at different spatial 

scales will select against combinations of species traits 

(functional groups) and modify community composition 

(Poff 1997).

The linkage between species traits and the environment requires a characterization of the environment 

in terms of a specific set of state variables. These 

variables form the fabric of the filter—if the functional 

characteristics of the species fail to match the selective 

characteristics of the filter, the species will not occur in 

the community. To achieve the goal of indicator selection requires that both the functional traits of species 

and the environmental state variables to which they are 

linked be identified.

We believe the relations described above provide a 

framework for indicator selection based on hierarchy 

theory and the evolution of species trait-environment 

linkages. Both these topics have an extensive literature, 

much of it theoretical. What we find most relevant is the 

literature on species environment linkages that specifically incorporate the hierarchal structure of the environment 

and the role it has played in the evolution of species traits. 

What may be novel in our paper is the merging of these 

two areas of theoretical ecology to address the challenge 

of indicator selection for environmental monitoring 

programs. In adopting this approach we are emphasizing 

species composition at local and regional scales as the 

proximate measure of management success. If the expected complement and relative abundance of species is 

retained on the landscape then management is providing 

successful. If the expected values are not observed, then 

this suggests that one or more of the defining elements of 

the hierarchal environmental filter is missing. The focus 

is on functional groups as indicators of the state of the 

Figure 1. The trait-environment filter model developed by Poff 

(1997). The environment acts as a multi-scale habitat filter 

that ultimately determines the species composition of local 

communities. Species that lack traits suitable for passage 

through the are limited in abundance (or absence) at smaller 

spatial scales.
948 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

environment—that is, environmental state is the ultimate 

measure of management success.

Identifying Species Traits Consistent 

With Environmental Filters

To operationalize the process of defining speciesenvironment linkages it is necessary to: 1) assign each 

species a trait strength that identifies its tolerance to 

different environmental filters at each hierarchal level; 

2) assign each environmental filter a strength that determines the likelihood that a species with a given trait 

strength will pass through the filter. Based on these 

two sources of information, Parsons (19??) proposed 

a method of predicting local species composition and 

abundance patterns by multiplying indices of trait 

strength and filter selectivity to estimate a likelihood 

of occurrence. Occurrence likelihoods are subsequently 

associated with different abundance categories (for example, abundant, common, uncommon, rare). Coupling 

information from the regional species pool with desired environmental states yields an expected species 

abundance distribution. A comparison of the expected 

species composition and abundance patterns with that 

observed will identify “breaks” in the occurrence patterns (Kolasa 1989). Lack of agreement between an 

expected pattern and what is observed on the ground 

indicate that current environmental conditions are 

restricting the occurrence of (in other words, filtering 

out) specific species or functional groups. Information 

from trait-environment linkages of the missing species 

can then be used to identify those components of the 

environment that need to be changed.

The Use of Species Population 

Dynamics as Indicators

Species are common components of comprehensive 

indicator sets for several reasons. Pragmatically, species 

are often a good choice because they have value to the 

public. Even if they are not the best choice based on 

ecological criteria, public interest along suggests their 

inclusion in an indicator set. Fortunately, however, 

there are strong ecological arguments for the inclusion 

of species because their population status is often indicative of disturbance and stressors events that span 

a range of temporal and spatial scales. For example, 

changes in stream macro-invertebrate communities are 

good indicators of acute stressor events that may go 

unrecorded by infrequent water chemistry measurements. Indicators species may also provide insights 

to the status and trends of unmeasured species. For 

example, multi-species conservation issues in Africa 

and Australia have been addressed by concentrating 

on “focal species” (Davis 1996, Lambeck 1997). Often 

these species are simply those with large area requirements in habitats experiencing loss and fragmentation. 

By sustaining the populations of species with large area 

requirements, presumably those species with similar 

habitat requirements, but requiring less area, will also 

be conserved.

The Committee of Scientists (COS 1999) in their 

report to Secretary of Agriculture Daniel Glickman 

proposed the use of focal species as an integral part of 

the monitoring of Forest Service lands. The key characteristic of a focal species that make it particularly 

relevant to monitoring was that its status and trend 

were hypothesized to provide insights to the integrity 

of the larger ecological system to which it belongs. 

“Focal species serve an umbrella function in terms of 

encompassing habitats needed for many other species, 

play a key role in maintaining community structure or 

processes, are sensitive to changes likely to occur in 

the area, or otherwise serve as an indicator of ecological sustainability” (COS 1999). In this paper we have 

extended the focal species concept by emphasizing those 

species with strong trait-environment linkages.

The focal species concept differs subtly, but significantly, from the previous “management indicator 

species” concept. Rather than acting as an indicator of 

a specific management prescription or an indicator to 

the abundance of less easily survey species and their 

associated habitats, focal species allow induction to the 

state of the ecological system to which they belong. 

In this sense, the focal species concept is more closely 

aligned with the concept of a condition indicator (see 

discussion in Zacharias and Roff 2001). Even though 

species are key components of the indicator set, they 

are judiciously chosen so that inference is at the ecosystem level.

For pragmatic reasons it may be necessary to limit 

the set of trait-species to a manageable number of focal 

species. For example, in its recommendations for changes 

to the National Forest Management Act, a Committee of 

Scientists (COS 1999) proposed a focal species approach 

to monitoring on Forest Service lands where focal species where largely defined on the basis of their functional 

role in ecological systems. Others classifications of focal 

species can be derived by varying the selection criteria 

including one based on the possession of traits strongly 

linked to environmental filters. Other researchers have 

successfully defined functional species groups on the basis of evolved trait-environment linkages (Keddy 1992) 

and we propose a similar process with an objective of 

indicator identification.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 949

A Stressor-based Approach to Indicator 

Selection

To be most meaningful, a monitoring program should 

provide insights into cause and effect relations between 

environmental stressors or specific management practices 

and anticipated ecosystem responses. Prior knowledge 

of the factors likely to stress an ecological system or 

the expected outcomes from management should be 

incorporated into the indicator selection process (NRC 

1995, 2000). Narrowing down the list of candidate indicators is aided by an appropriate conceptual model that 

clearly links stressors (for example, pollutants, landscape 

change, management practices) to specific levels in the 

hierarchy of environmental filters (fig. 1). This process 

enables the monitoring program to investigate the relations between anticipated stressors and environmental 

consequences prior to irreversible change. Such predictive or stress‐oriented monitoring seeks to detect the 

known or suspected cause of an undesirable effect before 

the effect has had a chance to occur or to become serious. The design chosen for effectiveness monitoring of 

the Northwest Forest Plan (USDA 1993 and others) was 

an attempt to incorporate effects-oriented and stressororiented thinking into the indicator selection process 

(Mulder and others 1999).

Indicator Selection

Figure 1 could be interpreted as either a top-down 

or bottom-up set of relationships. We have so far emphasized the top-down aspect of figure 1—that is, the 

environment acting as an hierarchal filter that constrains 

the species composition and abundance of a community 

at a given site. It is equally useful to view figure 1 from 

the bottom-up. In this case, it is the missing species or 

unexpected abundance patterns that indicate an undesired state for one or more of the environmental filters. 

Identifying the spatial scale of absence of a focal species 

or functional group identifies where an undesired environmental state resides in the spatial hierarchy. Thus, the 

linkage between species traits and environmental filters 

provides a model for the selection of both environmental 

and species indicators.

Given the significance of trait environment linkages, 

it is possible to outline a process of indicator selection. 

The procedure entails the identification of a set of species 

based on criteria such as their functional importance to 

the ecosystem (for example, keystone species, ecological 

engineers, competitive dominants), their role as an umbrella species, or their legal status (in other words, a listed 

species under the Endangered Species Act). Because they 

represent more general categories than species, several 

authors (Poff, 1997, Poff and Allan 1995, Weiher and 

Keddy 1995, and Statzner and others 2004) have argued 

for the identification of functional trait groups defined 

on the basis of trophic guild, habitat specialization, body 

size, and vagility, for example. Whatever criteria are used 

to select focal species, to be useful indicators they must 

possess traits that are strongly linked to the environment 

and collectively include the entire hierarchy. Each of the 

focal species has an expected distribution and abundance 

pattern based on the desired states of the environmental 

filters. The distribution and abundance patterns of the 

focal species then become the species-level indicators.

The process for selecting environment indicators is 

essentially the flip-side of selecting focal species. Those 

environmental state variables most frequently associated 

with the occurrence of the focal species (or functional 

trait groups) become candidate indicator variables. That 

is, the strongest trait-environment linkages help define 

the environmental indicators to be measured. For a given 

focal species these might include factors such as the 

abundance and spatial pattern of habitat at the landscape 

scale, the structure and composition of habitat at the home 

range scale, patches of food resources within the home 

range, and the presence of a suitable nest site within a 

resource patch. Alternatively, specific spatial scales for 

the environmental filters can be defined a priori. This was 

the approach used by Poff (1997) and Jensen and others (2001) in their hierarchial classification of drainage 

basins. Prior to identifying environmental state variables, 

Poff (1997) proposed the following nested scales: basin/

watershed, valley/reach, channel unit, and microhabitat. 

Within each of these scales he identified measurable 

landscape attributes (state variables) that could be related 

to species presence/absence or abundance patterns.

Collectively, the trait-environment model helps identify two types of indicator variables: 1) focal species whose 

traits (for example, trophic position, behavior, body size, 

habitat specialization) are linked to environmental state 

variables, and 2) environmental variables that represent 

those habitat attributes that must be present to allow the 

focal species to occur. In addition, the environmental 

indicators are scale-specific—that is, coarse scale attributes are necessary, but not sufficient, to explain species 

occurrence patterns in local communities (fig. 1).

Discussion

A comprehensive monitoring program should include 

indicators that collectively measure compositional, structural, and functional attributes of ecological systems at a 

variety of spatial scales (Lindenmayer and others 2000, 

Noon and Dale 2002). Composition indicators usually are 

species-based measurements where the species measured 
950 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

provide insights to the status of trend of the unmeasured 

species. Concepts such as guild indicators species would 

apply here (Verner 1984). Function-based indicators 

include direct measures of processes and their rates. 

Examples include primary productivity, rates of nutrient cycling, and water flows. Structure-based indicators, 

measured at local and landscape scales, include elements 

such as vegetation structural complexity, among-patch 

vegetation heterogeneity, landscape connectivity and 

landscape pattern (in other words, the distribution and 

abundance of different patch types). These metrics are 

often assumed to constitute a “coarse filter” because of 

their ability to predict broad-scale patterns of biological 

diversity (Hunter and others 1989, Haufler and others 

1996).

Both function- and structure-based indicators can be 

measured at multiple spatial scales ranging from local, 

to landscape, to regional. In addition, there are composition-based indicators that include the direct measurement 

of some aspects of a species’ life history, demography, 

or behavior. These are often referred to as “fine filter” 

assessments because they evaluate the effects of management practices on individual species (Haufler and 

others 1996).

What we propose in this paper is consistent with 

these previous perspectives on indicator selection—it 

is multi-scale and based on composition, structure, and 

function indicators. What is novel is the emphasis on 

species traits and their linkage to environmental state 

variables to facilitate indicator identification. It is based 

on the understanding that the scaled habitat features of 

the environment influence the probability that individual 

species with specific traits will occur as members of 

local communities (Poff 1997). Viewing the observed 

biological community as a set of species traits enables 

two types of inference: 1) from species data to the state 

of the environment at multiple spatial scales, and 2) from 

the state of environment to the expected species composition. A missing species or an unexpected composition 

or abundance distribution is indicative of an undesired 

environmental state(s). Knowledge of the links between 

traits and environment state variables thus allows one to 

identify what in the environment needs to changed and 

helps guide an appropriate management response.

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USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 953

Syntheses and 

Recommendations
954 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

A broader concept of sustainability was introduced. 

Ted Heintz introduced the concept of sustainability as 

a life sustaining property of earth’s biosphere. Ted observed that Life in a wide variety of forms, interacting in 

networks of evolving relationships, has been sustained 

for nearly 4 billion years. Sustainability is a property 

of the system as a whole, a result of the structure of the 

relationships among its elements and processes, hence 

an emergent property that is different from the characteristics of the system’s elements. Clearly this awesome 

and miraculous achievement must be our primary model 

of sustainability. While in recent times global discourse 

on sustainability as a societal goal is emerging, sustainability needs to arise as an emergent property of human 

cultures just as it arose as an emergent property of the 

biosphere.

Democratic processes of governance, market-based 

economic systems, and science-based information systems provide the institutional processes through which 

indicator based feedbacks can promote the social learning 

needed to achieve and sustain sustainability. Information 

that is most influential is information that is socially 

constructed in the community it influences. Information 

influences by becoming embedded in understandings, 

practices, and institutions rather than being used as 

evidence.

Societies will always have needed measures that 

require interpretation to generate information. At the 

symposium different approaches and strategies for formulating measurement systems were presented. A key 

ingredient for success is whether or not the information 

generated from associated measures has any systematic 

role to play in the realm of management decision-making 

(forest resources, other managerial context, including a 

political context). Effective collection and management 

of sustainability criteria and indicators focused on three 

issues: First is common agreement on what country level 

data are relevant to decisions that might assure the respective sector’s contribution to sustainable development. 

Second is relevancy of country level data to regional 

and local level management. Third is country capacity to 

collect data and respond to assessment information.

Sustainability is about a diverse set of values. A presupposition of many presentations is that the aspiring 

social goals of sustainability—social equity, economic 

prosperity, and environmental health, embody values 

about the kind of world in which we want to live and 

maintain for future generations. Participants talked about 

employment, commodities to support life functions, and 

the desire for a healthy and secure environment that 

provides for non tangible human needs and which is 

inclusive of their national heritage of plant and animal 

species. Thus, sustainability is about choices regarding what to sustain, how, when, where, and for whom. 

Because human values are not fixed and depend on social, 

economic, and ecological context, multiple perspectives on what sustainability means and how it should be 

achieved and assessed were presented.

Sustainability, however defined, requires judgment 

about the state of our communities, country, and world. 

Inherent therein is valuation of those tangibles we believe should persist in space and over time, and the need 

to identify and agree upon key performance measures, 

‘vital signs’ of sustainability that serve as a barometer of 

the state of our values. Many participants are burdened 

with information gathering - much which is redundant, 

underutilized, or are not value added to decision making. 

Several speakers reported on the use of the Montreal 

Process Criteria and Indicators. They demonstrated that 

organizing around the seven criteria of sustainability 

enables alignment of activities between scales; focuses 

scarce resources on highest priorities; and provides a consistent framework that allows continuous improvement 

processes. Speakers also demonstrated that organizing 

assessment, planning, implementation, monitoring, and 

evaluation processes in a unifying framework has the 

advantage of aligning programs of work together and 

allows managers to learn and adjust their strategies more 

rapidly.

Different approaches to generation information were 

presented. While the ‘purest’ of systems approaches are 

important in teasing out inter-relationships, they should 

not be considered the end all for dialog and decision making. Body temperature is a great global indicator – but it 

tells us little of why we have a fever. The link between 

specific environmental changes, the effect on human 

health, social & economic systems, and ecological condition is complex, often difficult to describe, and remains 

Using Information and Knowledge Required In Assessment 

and Management Applications for Sustainability

Dr. Albert Abee, Planning Specialist, Ecosystem Management Coordination, National Forest 

System, USDA Forest Service, Washington, DC
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 955

a significant challenge. Determining causal relationships 

between specific management actions and changes in 

environmental conditions will remain problematic because such relationships cannot be fully understood. This 

does not diminish the need to strive to understand such 

relationships through system approaches. However, as 

several speakers demonstrated, (Jim Brown, Paul Brouha, 

Jeff Horan, etc) C&I measurement frameworks such as 

the MP C&I are invaluable tools to inform dialog and 

decision making processes.

The challenge of writing to sustainability is to talk 

about it in a different way. The global community lives 

and works in an administratively fragmented landscape. 

There are multiple ownership patterns and political and/

or administrative boundaries with each entity having 

unique roles, responsibilities, mission goals, and objectives. Yet, there are common, broad, social, economic, 

and environmental challenges that affect all and that defy 

remedy alone along administrative lines. No one entity 

has all the information or control. We need to work together. The importance of having capacity to share data 

was punctuated. Similarly, the importance of having unifying, agreed upon, ‘dash boards’ of ‘vital sign’ measures 

that cross administrative boundaries, to gauge aggregated 

outcomes, and inform dialog and collaborative decision 

making processes, was demonstrated. At this symposium 

we saw major progress in this area. For example, Dr Hall 

reported that at the provincial level, indicators have been 

developed criteria have been enshrined into their forest 

management legislation.
956 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

This Monitoring Science and Technology Symposium 

was designed to “put it all together” for the achievement 

of sustainability-related goals. It brought together senior 

policy makers, resource managers and scientists from 

many organizations and a wide range of disciplines to 

design a roadmap for addressing critical needs for unifying monitoring strategies, information and knowledge. 

Discussions during this first Closing Plenary Summary 

Session were arbitrarily limited itself to a primary 

focus on Ecological and Economic Systems; nonetheless, the Session did not neglect the import of Social 

Systems—dealt with in greater detail in subsequent 

summary sessions.

For this Summary Issue Area, panelists voiced agreement that the overriding focus of the Symposium, rather 

than being on defining and debating sustainability, was on 

highlighting monitoring-related tools necessary for—or 

capable of—meeting sustainability-based goals of differing stakeholders. Also, they voiced agreement that 

sustainability-based goals, of necessity, must integrate 

consideration and handling of environmental, social and 

economic influences or drivers.

The term ‘disconnect’ was employed by a number of 

the Symposium’s speakers and Closing Plenary panelists. Discussions evidenced two levels of ‘disconnect: 

overarching and ancillary. For one set of overarching ‘disconnect’, discussions focused on the split 

evidenced, overall, between stakeholders in developed 

versus developing contexts. In developed contexts 

sustainability-based goals were seen to have a primary 

emphasis on “environmental” drivers and outcomes, 

while in developing contexts much more interest has 

been concentrated on “social” drivers and outcomes. Not 

surprisingly, another disconnect between development 

contexts arises with a decided emphasis on newly-developed, technologically-based solutions versus solutions 

that derive from “simple”, existing tools and natural 

processes. Finally, another example of an overarching 

‘disconnect’ centered on whether “short-term” versus 

“long-term” perspectives play a predominant role in 

the process.

Examples of the ancillary type of ‘disconnect’ identified and discussed by participants included:

Disciplinary. This type of ‘disconnect’ is exemplified 

by the well-recognized tension that exists between and 

among scientific, technical guilds. In fact, this type of 

‘disconnect’ was a major impetus for convening the 

Symposium.

Participatory. Efforts to address such issues as 

sustainability goals typically erect artificial barriers 

between what are known as “decision makers” and 

“stakeholders”. Too often the fact that ultimately each 

of these interested parties will need answers about—

and make decisions on—the sustainability goals is 

lost in the process and compromises the viability of 

outcomes. It is expected that this type of ‘disconnect’ 

can be overcome through highly-inclusive approaches 

to development of sustainability goals.

Information Integration, Synthesis, Interpretation 

and Analysis (Assessment). There is a plethora of 

data and information sources that may find use in 

the achievement of sustainability-based goals. Since 

they have been collected for differing purposes and at 

varied spatial and temporal scales, and with varying 

degrees of quality management, the utility of these 

resources is easily compromised. The issue of how 

to assure the greatest interoperability among such 

resources proves a continuing challenge to achievement of sustainability-based goals.

Education, Technical Capacity. Unevenness in the 

educational and technical capacity of sustainability 

partners creates a major ‘disconnect’—in particular, 

in an increasingly globalized context.

Performance and Result Evaluation. Measuring 

the effectiveness and efficiency of efforts focused 

on sustainability-based goals is a prerequisite for 

acceptance and adoption of sustainability-related 

endeavors. These measures must be incorporated into 

clearly understandable communications to the varied 

interested parties.

Finally, during this Closing Plenary Summary Session 

on Condition and Trends of Ecological and Economic 

Systems participants noted a strong and continuing need 

for the varied disciplines represented to focus attention 

on how the data and information they generate can be 

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Condition and Trends of Ecological and Economic Systems

Dr. Harold Bergman, Director, William D. Ruckelshaus Institute and the School of 

Environment and Natural Resources, University of Wyoming

Sidney Draggan, Ph. D., Ecologist, Senior Science and Science Policy Advisor, Office of 

Research and Development, U.S. Environmental protection Agency
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 957

applied to decision support tools and models. Need for 

this capability has been voiced by the wide range of 

stakeholders (that are formulating or acting upon sustainability-based goals) of whom all are decision makers. 

That is, decision makers who are from international, 

domestic or local governments and organizations; or 

who are consumers, farmers or sustainability-attentive 

individuals)—so as to make their decisions to protect 

the environment and public health in the long-term on 

sound scientific bases.
958 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

The symposium identified the major barriers to 

collaboration among institutions and programs. This 

synthesis, while admittedly drawing from only a sample 

of the papers presented, provides a synoptic view of the 

major recurring themes voiced by participants.

Several overarching statements were voiced. No 

one institution or one program in isolation can hope to 

provide and integrate all of the necessary monitoring 

data, supporting science and information, or technology 

capabilities for use of decision makers. Monitoring is 

the unifying and integrating aspect of natural resource 

management. Information is the common currency for 

all resource stewardship activities. Agreement on basic 

standards for data collection and storage among institutions and programs is required to ensure access to the 

information and appropriate interpretation of trends. 

Significantly, science and active monitoring are key 

components of public dialog and partnership.

Many speakers discussed the need for multi-national 

and cross-institutional collaboration as a pre-requisite for 

sound decision making in the 21st century. Participants 

identified several characteristics of the new century, 

including a growing global population, increasingly 

scarce natural and financial resources, expanded global 

trade and commerce, and greater frequency of natural 

disasters. This century will demand innovative thinking 

and a renewed commitment to collaboration. Examples 

of where environmental disasters have forged new partnerships were presented. Global trade and commerce has 

created nodes and pathways of moving resources around 

the world, and this has forced countries to work together. 

An institution’s mission may demand reaching across 

institutions and programs. For example, space agencies 

in different countries are collaborating on space sensors 

and platforms. Modest funding has forced cost-leveraging partnerships and integration.

In Canada, United States, and Mexico, for example, 

the environment has been identified as the issue most in 

need of institutional integration. Similar responses exist in other countries and continents. Who has the data 

and expertise often determines what institutions and 

programs will work together. Geography of concern 

defines partners. Complex issues require more program 

involvement from a wider range of partners than more 

narrowly defined issues.

Many challenges, problems, needs, and disconnects 

were identified. Monitoring science is still not considered 

“real science.” Does monitoring science really address 

the challenges of sustainability? How will we address 

cultural barriers among disciplines and partners? Data 

sharing across institutions can be a problem if standards 

are not in place and systems are incompatible. Intellectual 

property rights: that is, who owns the data and who 

must pay for access present formidable challenges. For 

example, how can we overcome mistrust when sharing 

data across nations, especially between developed and 

developing countries? Given uncertainty in how the data 

were collected, we need to be realistic about the actual 

usefulness of monitoring data. Sound interpersonal relationships and trust are key to reaching out to others and 

breaking down barriers. It is important to move knowledge into action and to get the results of science into the 

hands of decision makers in a form that they can readily 

interpret, absorb, and interpret. Organizational structures 

can create significant barriers.

The three North American countries have specific 

challenges related to national environmental monitoring. For example, in Canada, the distribution of powers 

among federal, provincial, and territorial governments 

can create institutional challenges. For example, differing land ownership patterns across the country, diversity 

of landscapes, and a highly urbanized population with 

increasing interest in the rural environment. The relatively small population compared to the immense size 

of the country presents unique challenges for ecological 

monitoring. The country struggles over the definition of 

ecosystem health and debates continue over meaningful 

indicators with which to measure it.

In the United States, there are many definitions of 

monitoring, which often hinder communication. There 

is a tendency to collect much data and use only a fraction of it. We lack consensus on what are the few vital 

indicators to assess environmental health. There is some 

level of distrust of government and industry, which makes 

information they provide suspect; hence the need for 

transparency. Organizational incentives and rewards are 

Problems and Issues Across Institutions and Programs

Douglas Powell, National Monitoring and Evaluation Coordinator, USDA Forest Service

Jim Wood, Director of Forest Resources Program, Natural Resources Canada, Pacific 

Forestry Centre
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 959

often lacking. There is no national monitoring program 

for rangelands or grasslands. Multiparty monitoring is 

being demanded by many interested parties.

In Mexico, challenges to the development of an effective national monitoring program include: lack of existing 

national monitoring programs; differing institutional 

mandates at the national, state and local levels; long 

term institutional stability; data access at the appropriate 

scale; and lack of consensus on which environmental 

indicators to monitor (both ecological and social). The 

lack of a multi-scale policy on what to measure, how, 

where, when, and why has led to problems with data 

integration, comprehensiveness, completeness, scientific 

credibility, technical defensibility, utility of results, and 

limited inter-operability.

Many recommendations and potential solutions were 

offered by speakers to overcome barriers:

Science evangelists must build support among all 

key sectors.

Improve the efficiency of data sharing and management through adoption of standards and definitions. 

Data accessibility can break down barriers; citizens 

can compare data from a variety of sources. Geospatial 

interoperability--involves data standards and easy 

access and use.

GIS is a great integrator and revealer.

The path forward for monitoring for sustainability is 

partnerships among scientists, public, and resource 

managers in which technology transfer plays an important role in bridging the gap among all three sectors.

Use infrastructure and governance of local communities to involve people.

Keep monitoring simple: easier to conduct, understand, and communicate.

Clearly define to decision makers/organizations 

how breaking down institutional barriers will be of 

benefit.

Have all the ground work completed with pilots and 

demonstrations to illustrate vision and desirable 

outcome.

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Communicate/communicate/communicate.

Reduce risk for decision makers; show how costs 

outweigh benefits. If you have a good idea/vision keep 

at it and look for the window of opportunity.

Think big; have a vision that will excite and lead to 

positive outcomes.

The concept of “boundary organizations” was put forth 

as an important means of overcoming institutional 

barriers to collaboration. Boundary organizations 

were defined as organizations that were created to 

address a specific issue in a particular time frame. 

They often have their own governance structure and 

consist of resources, both human and capital, from 

many organizations.

Many valuable lessons were shared. Government 

has an important role to play in bringing diverse groups 

together and in reaching out to the private sector to improve science and technology. Technology developed by 

one agency can find application by other agencies.

Identify shared vision and specific objectives. 

Senior-level managers must support monitoring and not 

see it as a threat. The process is of equal if not greater 

value than the outcome. Different institutions bring 

different expertise and perspectives to the problem. 

Indicator selection should be a partnership endeavor. 

Collaboration can be synergistic and achieve cost efficiencies.

Different countries adopt different views of sustainability. Environmental focus in the developed 

world and socially focused in the developing world. Be 

opportunistic and inclusive, work with all interested parties. Maintain continual dialogue between scientist and 

managers or program will disappear.

Standard protocols are necessary to withstand 

scientific and legal challenge. They are useful also in 

helping managers understand the complexity of monitoring and the need for appropriate designs.

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960 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Outlining the Problem

The contemporanean social sciences describe an astonishing feature: in the known period of history, there 

has never been as much activity in international relations 

as now; and yet since a few decades the common of 

mortals feels increasingly insecure (see for example Beck 

[1992], [1999], Frank [2002], Landes [1999], Monbiot 

[2000], Stiglitz [2002]). A new uncertainty on the global 

level produced fear and mistrust, making arise two calls: 

one for more rules, laws, prescriptions, and power, as 

well as one for indicator systems and methods for measuring the sustainability of the development. But can 

they dissolve the core of anxiety, fear and distrust? Upon 

approaching a tunnel, one would understandably like to 

know more about it. Wanting to know the conditions and 

obstacles on the path, and making sure one can defend 

oneself, can be useful ingredients, but do not include 

the clarification of one’s own perspective to the point of 

excluding securely one’s own stance and contribution to 

the problems. After all, the latter are mainly man-made. 

The crux seems to be in the pursued objectives, whose 

legitimacy seems to have no better foundation than interests and values. But approaching them on this basis 

must remain vague, since—as Max Weber famously has 

argued—even the validity of values cannot be ascertained 

scientifically. Nevertheless, for a sustainable solution it is 

necessary to develop a securely complete view, including 

all of the viewer, his ideas, and ways of thinking. Here 

we encounter an obstacle that looks formidable at first 

glance: contemporanean philosophy and science declare 

in unison that certainty and completeness of view are 

unattainable ideals. Are we thus left only with the ‘choice’ 

of more measurements and more rules? Since these always stem from mere perspectives and can never cover 

all cases, they can never warrant ultimate objectivity. 

Somebody will always attack them, feeling sufficiently 

justified by being limited. Is strife and conflict therefore 

inescapably our lot? Acting out this belief produces more 

fear and distrust, more armor and bristles, more conflict 

... a vicious circle (which is, as mentioned, precisely what 

can be observed empirically already now). Hence the 

question is when does one start to think about the origin 

of the vicious circle? The uncertainty and incompleteness 

of contemporanean philosophy and science make also the 

assessment unreliable whereby there is no other path than 

theirs. For thinking beyond this ‘mental sound barrier’, 

must one be coerced by pain and sufferings, or is there 

some prospect of success for starting to think before?

As is being emphasized in cultural anthropology, a 

culture survives through producing and offering encouragements for thinking before hardship arises, for being 

able to avoid pointless suffering. Such encouragements 

can only be effective when they address the understanding of problems at stake and hence the conceptual level 

of the public debate, even if the means for conveying a 

message must of course be material (the carrier of meaning should not be confused with the meaning itself, e.g., 

a messenger with his message).

One of the endeavors in this direction was the symposium “Toward a Unified Knowledge-based Society for 

Sustainability.” The emphasis on unifying knowledge 

Toward a Unified Knowledge-based Society for 

Sustainability—Developing a Synthesis on the 

Methodological Level

Alec A. Schaerer

Abstract—The debates on development manifest an increasing concern for sustainability, 

but as yet little awareness of the hierarchy in the ideas through which humans contribute 

to the problem. This gap is widened by a widespread but nevertheless unnecessary 

acceptance of unreasonable elements such as paradoxes, or the general fragmentation 

in knowledge, or allegedly general limits to it. First the character of such impediments is 

assessed, partly in theoretical considerations and partly through examples. This analysis 

reveals the root of a widespread self-limitation in thinking. Understanding its structure 

allows to synthesize an approach in which the problems do on principle not arise. It is 

conceptually precise but nevertheless universally applicable within the chosen query 

perspective, and hence useful for unifying knowledge toward a general sustainability 

of development.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 961

is a wise choice, given the fact that only a securely 

complete perspective can warrant any real sustainability. Yet this emphasis proved to be a daunting task for 

the vast majority of the symposium participants, even 

though many manifested a sincere desire to move in 

this direction. The problem seems to be in not knowing how to unify knowledge. One layer more deeply, 

the crux of this ‘how’ is rooted in the difficulty of 

realizing that bridges towards more unified views can 

only be built by means of conceptual work, which 

can itself only be discussed in concepts, which then 

may sound very far away from anything ‘real’ or even 

‘normal’ according to the practician. He or she is not 

trained to operate in conceptual considerations per se. 

Yet this level of intelligibility as such is and remains 

the decisive locus. Everything else revolves around it, 

in a preparing sense or in the sense of consequences. 

For secure sustainability, science itself must become 

fully sustainable. In this light the unifying potential 

e.g., of physics is insufficient, as it approaches reality 

in terms of ‘things’ without addressing fundamentally 

the conceptual instrumentation for grasping them in 

a strictly complete and secure way. This systematic 

incompleteness is not debated sufficiently. What may 

look at first like a sustainable path in one perspective 

can look very limited in a more encompassing view. 

An example: medieval Europe wanted to sustain its 

expansion, as colonialism was under way, so it cut down 

forests wildly for construction work, especially in the 

Mediterranean area—producing problems of erosion and 

draught for our era. Yet at that time all experts agreed 

that trees grow anyway and that therefore the chosen 

path was reasonable. Today many will laugh at such a 

crass example. But the type of problem still remains: 

believing to know about totality is not the same as 

securely knowing about totality.

In such situations, the crucial question is what kind 

of path one wants to pursue. Under the impression that 

one has to decide and act under the presently given 

conditions (uncertainty of knowledge), there is no other 

choice but to proceed pragmatically, adopting the state 

of the art and hoping for the best—even though this 

may not be the optimal solution, or may even lead ever 

deeper into problems. The vast majority of the currently 

debated theoretical streams has nothing better to suggest. 

Nevertheless, this path is not totally satisfying—which 

is not very astonishing since it has its roots in mere beliefs. While some practical decisions may have be taken 

pragmatically, it is thus very reasonable to limit these 

to the strict minimum, pursuing simultaneously also all 

investigations for reassessing uncompromisingly the very 

foundation of methodology towards the prerequisite of 

real sustainability: a real unification of knowledge.

From a thoroughly encompassing point of view it 

makes thus sense to address especially the fundamental 

interconnections in a new way; that is the purpose of 

this essay. First I will outline a problem that has escaped 

broad attention: the character of the limits to knowledge 

that are inherent in today’s mainstream methods, whose 

root is in the habit of setting out from basic assertions 

(axiom, definition, hypothesis, etc.). This is relevant for 

our topic, since many difficulties also in the sustainability debate are only a result of not having come to grips 

with this point. While practically everybody admits a 

limit, many believe today’s basic beliefs will always 

offer possibilities of overcoming it (as in pragmatism, 

scientism, etc.); others know the limit but believe it is 

absolute since all currently used approaches manifest it 

(as in skepticism, postmodernism, etc.). But the limit is 

not absolute: it is determined by the categories in which 

knowledge and thinking is being thought. For disentangling this web we will have to get into some thinking of 

the philosophical sort, moreover one that goes beyond the 

habits of today’s mainstream. But I will try to show that 

it can be done without needing previous philosophical 

knowledge. It is sufficient to face squarely the relevant 

points. This analysis paves the way for the approach I 

propose: ‘systematic attentiveness,’ covering the subject 

matter as well as the categorial instrumentation. It solves 

the crux by clarifying fully the nature of perspectivity and then developing systematically a special kind 

of concepts, which are strictly universally applicable 

within the chosen query perspective. They allow the new 

approach to be not only inter-disciplinary (useful for 

academic disciplines interacting), but trans-disciplinary 

(useful for general interaction—also with firms, NGOs, 

administrations, the civil society, etc.). For not remaining in abstraction I slip in some practical examples of 

where conceptual problems lead, taken from economics and medicine, as they are relevant to our topic: real 

sustainability. I close this presentation by outlining how 

systematic attentiveness can be implemented in practice. 

Since it is universally applicable, I will apply it first to 

the crucial point, the process of thinking, including the 

mind thinking itself—which usual approaches can cope 

with only in compromises. Then I show how it allows 

significant advances in traditional scientific fields, exemplified for the problem of sustainability by its own 

domain of debate: the geosciences.

In the Vein of an Introduction: 

Concepts and Their Relevance

Some might wonder why conceptual work should 

be decisive, especially since the currently prevailing 
962 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

opinion is that any knowledge should be based on empirical facts for being reliable. The basic idea is that 

something must exist for being able to talk about it; 

clarifying first fully the instrumentation for thinking 

and talking about everything is still a relatively rare endeavor. In trying to find an orientation in the maze of the 

many perceived external things and internal emotions, 

in thinking and talking about them, people have since 

long been using expressions for characterizing them. But 

using them is not the same thing as being aware of their 

relevance in the cognitive process, which is necessary for 

constituting reliable knowledge as opposed to expressing 

mere belief. The problem is that any observable fact can 

be interpreted in different ways—more or less completely 

and more or less correctly, depending on the conceptual 

frame of reference. In fact, any description inevitably 

contains an interpretation, due to the specific perspective 

out of which it arose (any expression is said to be ‘theoryladen’). The ultimately decisive element is always in the 

deciding mind—which must make sure, by considering 

fully the context, that its interpretation is adequate. For 

achieving this, the difference between the perceptual and 

conceptual side of the cognitive process is essential, and it 

can adequately be conscious only when thinking in terms 

that are finally beyond all observability, i.e., which are 

of conceptual nature themselves. For making completely 

sure, the structure of the conceptual side must thus be 

accepted as part of the necessary considerations. This 

endeavor constitutes philosophy proper—as opposed to 

(natural) science, which is dedicated to observation and 

description, not to purely conceptual considerations.

In the course of history, many philosophical theories 

have been set up about the conditions for warranting 

knowledge, differentiating aspects in the cognitive and 

discursive process. They manifest different grasps and 

understandings of the mental correlates of observed 

facts, which are understandable as a result of different 

foundational assumptions, and ultimately of varying 

degrees of self-awareness of their authors. Such differences appear collectively in the historical development 

of ways of thinking, in types of philosophy, but also 

individually, in differences between persons. Whichever 

way these differences may be structured, they can be 

assessed fruitfully only in purely conceptual terms. 

Wanting something existent as a foundation for assessing 

conceptual structures—as for instance in ‘naturalizing’ 

epistemology (taking results of natural science as a theoretical foundation), or in rooting mathematics in (mental) 

objects—inevitably engenders limits. They may not easily catch the eye, but will invariably limit the validity of 

the respective philosophical theory. In a pragmatic use of 

such theories their limit looks negligible, but it is crucial 

for complete reliability—as in needing a foundation for 

overall sustainability. In a strict view it is not sufficient 

to remain in beliefs that worked till now, as this would 

only mean prolonging into the future a knowledge that 

was useful in the past.

Since orientation in the maze is a problem of types of 

order, it is not astonishing that the developed conceptual 

means finally address forms of order. This is not a presently prominent view, because the explanatory traditions 

have developed on the basis not of the explanandum 

(‘that which is to be explained,’ seeking to understand 

ways of handling types of order, which occurs also in 

types of order), but of the explanans (‘the means through 

which an explanation is to be achieved,’ i.e., the linguistic 

instrumentation for handling types of order). Philosophy 

developed historically in considering first the nature of 

being as what things are in themselves; this view does 

not cover securely the thinking agent itself, so then consciousness as the locus of thinking was contemplated; this 

view too does not allow all of the desired understanding, 

so lately the emphasis is on language as a general mediator. Although this is today’s state of the art, it does not 

mean that the development can go no further. Presently 

the difference between language as a structural principle, the uses of language, and the (‘preverbal’) mental 

processes behind these uses, is coming into focus. The 

question is how the old border can be crossed.

When setting out from the linguistic instrumentation, the complex on the thinking side (autonomy, ‘I,’ 

personal identity, the psyche, thinking as an activity, 

etc.) looks mysterious, because the decisive part is an 

activity in choosing ideas (types of order) for putting 

them into material reality. Viewed ‘from outside,’ the 

act must seem mysterious or at best spontaneous, because its origin is directly evident only when one does 

it oneself in self-awareness (which may be rooted in 

perfectly clear reasons). Thinking in linguistic terms can 

‘see’ only results, not the activity itself. This gap can’t 

be closed by formal methods of any sort or amount, 

as formal logic can preserve truth in the logical steps, 

but not find or constitute any new truth. On its path the 

danger is to invent so many formal subdifferentiations 

that one ‘ceases to seek the forest, being busy with all 

the trees.’ Further down we will again come across the 

problems produced by thinking in instrumental terms, 

for probing this issue some more. The underlying thrust 

behind today’s philosophical development, on its path 

of finding the ultimately relevant forms of order, is and 

remains therefore the need to make fully transparent the 

structure of the conceptual side. Whether one is aware 

of this need is quite another question.

Handling types of order has essentially two aspects: 

one of order in the world and one of order in the mind. 

This does not imply introducing a dualism, for instance 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 963

of a Cartesian sort, but that any lack of clarity implies a 

difference between two aspects, of which one is querying 

the other. Whether these two aspects can be unified is 

not prejudiced by this distinction. In broad brush strokes, 

the first side is marked by words like law, sort, structure, 

type, etc., the second by words like concept, idea, notion, 

term, etc. There are bridging elements, marked by words 

like content, meaning, order, etc.. The used words are 

less important than what is being meant by them—while 

the crucial point is that thinkers are responsible for their 

mental order, their interpretative structure, because they 

themselves build it up, albeit under social influence.

Talking about forms of order (laws) evolved in two 

traditions: universal realism encouraged thinking of 

actual order in nature (lately called ‘truth-makers’ of 

corresponding propositions); in parallel, and opposing 

universal realism, nominalism fostered thinking about 

statements concerning regularities, maintaining that 

forms of order (laws) don’t exist as such. This second 

position, looking more tangible, has been dominating—

producing a widespread imprecision in conceptualizing 

man-made laws and laws of nature (forms of order) by 

conflating order and involved agency. Then the overall 

order cannot be grasped whereby a combination is as it 

is, and not otherwise. Yet laws as such can’t act in any 

way, they have nothing coercive in them. The question is 

whether one thinks about them on the level of everyday 

talk, or of complete intelligibility. Where a form of order 

is conceptually mixed up with the agency, the process is 

not thoroughly understood.

The nominalist view—whereby there is no objective 

order in the world, holding that all we have is statements 

concerning regularities—can of course be maintained, 

like any other belief, but at the cost of losing touch with 

part of reality, namely the mental and worldly agency. 

It is not only an incomplete view, but also an incoherent one: if there were no laws, no order in the world, 

as maintained, it would be impossible to distinguish 

anything from anything else. The fact that things are 

distinguishable, but just as they are, is a form of order. 

The question is whether one wants to admit an overall 

order, for then analyzing its substructure.

The tricky thing about pure forms of order is that they 

are a structure of content, balanced in itself, which looks 

different depending on the content implied in approaching it. Following, this aspect will become more explicit, 

using the law of the circle as an example: depending on 

the used conceptual elements in seeking to formulate a 

definition of the circle, the definition will look different; 

it is true within that perspective, but covers only the 

corresponding part of the implications of being a circle, 

while no definition can ever encompass all of them. 

And yet a thinking mind can refer to the pure law of the 

circle—otherwise it could not reach any true conclusions 

in new considerations. Whether one is aware of a mental 

act (such as referring), or whether it occurs by dint of 

influences beyond one’s full control (as in automatic 

reactions, or in obeying blindly a formal rule), is another 

question. The function of elements and structures of order in the mind—in short: concepts and theories—is to 

allow referring consciously to pure forms of order (for 

instance laws), for handling them adequately in processes of thinking and verbal interaction. The question 

is whether they can really warrant this performance. For 

example believing that concepts can only be of linguistic 

character, i.e., that no other elements can be relevant, 

confuses the material existence of elements with their 

structural necessity. As we will see later in this document, 

precisely those elements which are decisive for intelligibility—for example laws and forces—cannot easily be 

said to exist in the usual sense, even though they define 

the gist of existence of ‘things’. Wanting to base one’s 

considerations only on what is somehow tangible is not 

ultimately reasonable.

Few people realize that absolutely any content implied 

in approaching pure forms of order tint the impressions 

of what is being approached. Also the habitual gesture in 

philosophy and science of setting out from basic assertions (axiom, definition, hypothesis, postulate, premise, 

etc.) is such a content. Formally speaking it is a step of 

pre-determining something ‘plausible’ of the subject matter before it has been given the chance to present itself 

in its strict totality to the querying awareness. Namely 

formal systems, rule-based systems etc. inescapably 

embody this prejudicial character. But believing in ‘plausibilities’ limits the validity of the respective theoretical 

system. Due to its initial successes this gesture has been 

extremely attractive, in spite of its long-term drawbacks; 

it engendered the predominant abstract way of dealing 

with everything, irrespective of its nature—the gesture 

of administration, dominance, management, technique, 

etc.—and made computers (‘that which obeys all orders’) 

ubiquitous. The ultimate incompleteness of understanding, which this gesture embodies nolens volens, is the 

reason why we then are compelled to reflect back on our 

doings, wondering for instance about sustainability.

The difficulties in approaching pure forms of order 

appear also in today’s concept of ‘law of nature.’ Quite 

generally, and in spite of its importance, the concept of 

law of nature is far from being clarified. Not being able 

to approach phenomena and the process of thinking 

them in one homogenous (i.e., universally applicable) 

conceptual framework led to a widespread belief that a 

multitude of types of laws (in the linguistic view: law 

statements) must exist—causal laws, laws of synchronic 

coexistence, structural laws, laws of functional analysis, 
964 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

etc. (see for example Armstrong [1983], [1989], Earman 

[1978], [1984], Hooker [1992], [1998]). Hooker has put 

the crux as follows in the Routledge Encyclopedia of 

Philosophy in the entry “Laws, natural”:

Some laws are inclusionary: all electrons have charge 

e; some are exclusionary: nothing travels faster than the 

speed of light in vacuo. Some laws are deterministic: f 

= m·a, Newton’s second laws of motion, while others 

are statistical: given an incident UV photon, a skin cell 

has the probability P of dying. Some laws interrelate 

localized individuals (for example, the gas coexistence 

law PV = T), others concern field states (for example, 

the superposition principle, which has no equivalent 

among individuals). Symmetries, that is, invariance 

constraints, ground derived structural laws and may lie 

behind causal laws (quantum field theories). There is 

no single or simple relationship of laws to causes (of 

law statements to causal statements). ... Nor is there 

any single or simple relationship between laws and 

regularities (between law statements and descriptions of 

regularities). .... Conversely, empirical regularities have 

diverse relations to laws.

The distinction between order and agency opens a path 

to unlimited processual clarity: in nature, forces associated to an order produce material structures, and in the 

mind, the will of thinking must associate correctly the 

respective law with its condition of applicability. In this 

light it is amusing to hear for instance some physicists 

talking about ‘changing laws of nature’ and mentioning 

e.g., time, or the speed of light, as examples—which 

are not laws at all, but phenomena rooting in more basic 

forms of order. Based on the nominalist line, they developed a habit of calling a ‘law’ the mathematical notation 

of that law. But this entails its cost: one is then seduced 

into talking for instance about ‘reversible processes’ 

because in the respective mathematical notation time 

happens to be reversible; yet in reality no process can 

ever be reversible; a pattern may look the same again, 

but the constitutive bits of matter are changed.

Instead of thinking regularities in the countless events 

as accounts of how things appear, exist, vanish, and new 

ones of the same type reappear, the idea of regularity was 

thus reduced to those partial (mechanical) aspects that 

became known as the laws of nature—the laws of classical mechanics, of gravity, of thermodynamics, of entropy, 

etc. Applying such rigidified ideas, notions, and concepts, 

inevitably fragmentizes the view and counteracts the 

flow of life as a whole, constituting an obstacle for the 

completeness of understanding. To remain within physics 

for a moment, is for example gravity only something that 

happens between singled-out material objects? If yes, at 

the end of this line of reasoning, one cannot avoid postulating a carrier of this specific effect (gluons, gravitons, 

the Higgs field, or maybe entanglement itself mediating 

mass). Then mass and gravity must look mysterious. Of 

course this line of thinking allows to develop theories that 

correspond quite well to empirical measurements; nevertheless it remains in the basically paradoxical nature of 

‘looking from outside at the object,’ which can’t warrant 

complete self-transparency because it can’t encompass 

also its own act (not only in the quantum approach a 

‘blind spot’ remains; this crux is discussed later.

Quite generally, the way concepts are usually being 

conceived, they have become traps for a process of 

alive thinking. Based on the presently dominant idea of 

life, scientists are busily searching for life all over the 

universe—but that type of definition excludes the possibility of recognizing other forms of life, even if they 

appear under one’s nose. With narrow definitions, one 

can’t realize for example that the most alive process is 

completely conscious thinking.

The point of concepts is to allow referring to types of 

order (e.g., laws) for handling them in processes of thinking and verbal interaction. As an example for handling 

facts through laws we can take the law of triangularity 

in geometry. One can define general triangles, rectangular and equilateral ones, etc., and all interactions, and 

believe to have captured neatly the problem of anything 

appearing in a triangular way (an analogy: appearing in a 

material way). But the point is that the law of triangularity actually means simultaneously the precise order of 

being triangular in structure and the freedom of allowing 

all possible triangles. These look different depending 

on the medium of appearing; the law of triangularity 

can become manifest only to the degree allowed by the 

intrinsic order of the medium.

Thinking geometry in a strict way means handling its 

conceptual elements in an absolutely clear way. Then the 

law of triangles reveals having itself two polar aspects: 

triangles can be approached either as three straight lines 

crossing each other, thus defining three points, or as three 

points that are joined, defining three lines (in analogy: 

wave or particle view). And what do you see in three lines 

crossing each other (not in one point)? A triangle? No, 

there are four of them, of which three go through infinity. 

Note that in infinity the triangular area delimited by a line 

changes sides; further down we will encounter again content that is polarized under the condition of strict totality. 

Paradoxes—also e.g., in the quantum approach—arise 

when the facts are not grasped conceptually in their 

infinity, i.e., when the completeness of interrelations is 

pictured somehow, but not in its strict totality. Today’s 

science sees the phenomenal aspect of reality. But this 

is only one side; as mentioned, the conceptual side is at 

least as relevant: it determines the interpretations of the 

phenomena. In any complete view it is the decisive part 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 965

and should thus duly be considered. The complete law 

of the geometrical triangle, covering infinity—which is 

not only quantitative – does not invalidate any casuistry 

of triangles, but complements it decisively. In analogy, 

the complete law of materiality covers also the part 

which still remains hidden in ‘complementarity,’ ‘nonlocality,’ the ‘velocity’ of light, the ‘black holes,’ ‘dark 

energy,’ and other limits in today’s physics. For a truly 

complete understanding, it is not sufficient to encompass 

all objects; is it necessary to grasp also fully the categorial (and hence conceptual) elements that determine the 

chosen perspectivity. Not having achieved this is why for 

instance the quantum approach shows that observation 

must somehow be implied (‘decoherence,’ ‘entanglement’), or in the relativity approach that moving objects 

must imply a mutual relation, while the respective physical theory cannot explain completely why and how this is 

the case. Categorial (and therefore conceptual) strategies 

that allow things to become manipulable—in the mind 

or in the reality ‘out there’—embody the danger of selfdeception by believing to be in control. Then errors are 

compelled to add up in effects until becoming empirically conspicuous—producing crises, and manifesting 

an inefficient research process.

For some these considerations might sound relatively 

unworldly, interesting only for a few wizards. But in 

fact they concern us all directly. So let us go through a 

practical example that shows the relevance of conceptual 

structures and is fairly clear to the open mind: the way 

resources are being handled, due to ideas—embedded 

in the currently dominating economic system and its 

theoretical foundation, economics—which determine 

the activity.

A Practical Example: 

Conceptualizing the Economic 

Process

Especially in the debate on sustainability, the notion 

of ‘resource’ is essential, but it remains vague. Since 

the Brundtland Report the distinction between biotic 

(alive) resources and abiotic (mineral) resources is being neglected—in spite of crucial differences in their 

characteristics (e.g., renewability and its cycles). The 

idea of sustainability is now being used for both types 

of resources, even though the mineral ones are clearly 

nonrenewable and subject to irreversible degradation 

(e.g., Georgescu-Roegen [1971]). The Western hemisphere owes its rapid rise to an extensive use of mineral 

resources. By allowing exponential growth, which abiotic 

resources can’t permit due to their renewability cycles, 

they nourished the thermo-industrial revolution. The new 

habit—widespread especially among economists—of 

not distinguishing adequately between the two resource 

types, talking only about ‘natural resources,’ allows to 

maintain the illusion that exponential growth can generally be sustained even though the technically induced 

entropic degradation, and the transfer of lithosphere 

material into the biosphere, are of course limited. The 

unclear conceptualization was pushed into wide acceptance by influential agents, pleased by a rosy picture of 

eternal economic growth.

The self-deception is no accident, but the result of a 

technological path-dependency based on a belief that 

institutionalized property rights (ownership as power 

of disposal, ‘Eigentum’)—which allow for instance to 

sell and purchase goods—can constitute a generally sustainable order. Many forget that this aspect of property 

depends on a more fundamental one, namely possession 

rights (ownership as entitlement to use, ‘Besitz’) due to 

competences in dealing with things. As an institutional 

pillar, property has two economic potentials which entail a hierarchically ordered logic of decisions: as an 

entitlement to possession, property defines rights of use 

by competence; as an entitlement to dominion, it offers 

security (under mortgage) in credit contracts, allowing 

property societies to create endogenously the institution 

of money in a specific way. This contract structure has 

a strategic value through the pressure of contrac­tual 

indebtedness, which stipulates a repayment within temporal limits, burdened by interest on capital and defined 

according to the monetary standard of the creditor. This 

structure ex­plains why vested monetary interests call for 

‘ownership society,’ but not for acknowledging implicitly 

engendered burdens, making others carry them. This conflict arises by splitting off competence (understanding as 

regards content) from property (formal dominion).

In dealing socially with objects, the way of handling 

the difference between possession and ownership determines on principle any economic system. Agrarian 

societies usually operated on the basis of possession in 

the cycle of biotic resources (which are renewable) for 

agriculture and energy; this made the process sustainable. 

The situation changed with the emergence of industrial 

society and the invention of property rights. Industrial 

society made extensively use of mineral resources (which 

are not renewable)—and then became addicted to their 

characte­ristics. The corresponding institutional framework will thus naturally favor two types of technology 

and social engineering: those enabling a direct translation of its structural pressure into material production 

(essentially the thermo-industrial methods, which allow 

exponential growth but impose entropic degradation and 

pollution); and in the domain of non-exponential growth 
966 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

those methods which permit possession structures, accumulated in the past, to be converted into structures 

of future dominion (biotechnology, privatizing water 

sources, trans­ferring collective knowledge into ‘intellectual property,’ etc.); for instance an interest in species 

diversity can then exist only insofar as nature becomes instrumentally exploitable. For an ana­lysis see Steppacher 

in Bieri et al. [1999], contextualized in a discussion of 

modern agriculture.

Any institutional framework based on property rights 

(not possession rights) can’t avoid making everything 

into a commodity, forcing new markets into existence and 

imposing the standard of monetary decision-making. The 

latter engenders itself an exponential type of growth by 

the way money is being institutionalized: not as a means 

of free exchange, but itself as a commodity, with a price 

for being used. In this way, money can be made out of 

money—a seductive idea for many. Money is being put 

in circulation through a primal debt, by central banks 

crediting commercial banks which then credit individual 

borrowers. Following the logic of property (not possession), the central banks were gradually all privatized. At 

each step the debt inevitably increases (since everybody 

on the way wants his part of the cake); it shows in the 

interest rate which forces borrowers to pay back more 

than they had received. This debt burdens all facilitated 

infrastructure for production; as a side-effect, prices of 

goods contain an increasing portion of cost for paying 

back the invisible series of debts that allowed to produce 

them. The reality of today’s global monetary system is not 

full freedom, as many believe, but coercion organized in 

an imperceptible way. Everybody is subject to it; whoever 

manages to operate close to the monetary origin is not 

free either, since being there requires endorsing beliefs 

that don’t allow to overcome on principle the system.

This system and its money is burdened by another 

theoretical problem: goods are valued (and hence measured) in monetary terms, while the value of money is 

measured via the total amount of goods (the ‘domestic 

product’). One accepts thus ‘A is a function of B, while 

B is a function of A,’ which would not get mathematics 

very far. Applying this questionable basis (the domestic 

product), combined with subjective value theory, leads 

to a valuation of money that coerces agents, through 

the competition on the monetary market, into following 

the rule of return on investment. As a result, money can 

never become a free medium of exchange that serves 

everybody in equity: the ‘big’ capitalist always has an 

advantage over the ‘small’ one.

What is currently being called ‘globalization’ is essentially a process of globally imposing property conditions, 

which entail corresponding techniques and technologies. 

This process is obviously not sustainable in a strict sense, 

but the conceptual basis of mainstream economics does 

not allow the insight that the process stands on an ice 

floe that is melting away under our feet, while most of 

the critique of globalization is based on vague hunches. 

Solving the problem requires a solid knowledge of the 

conceptual structure that produces it. All its aspects are 

a result of mere assumptions and thus purely conceptual 

distinctions; therefore no amount of empirical work on 

this basis can ever amount to any uncompromised solution. In the face of its challenge, economics sought to 

secure its methods by means of mathematical rigor. But 

no amount of handling empirical data with sophisticated 

mathematics can ever bridge the induced gap in fundamental content. As Geoffrey Hodgson [2004] has put it 

succinctly, discussing a critique of mainstream economics by Mark Blaug and Tony Lawson: “the victory of 

technique over substance is a chronic problem within 

modern economics.” Basing the abstractions on empirical 

data allows to grasp some of what has been done until 

now, but not the overall law of ecosocial process as a 

whole and—based on that—an insight into the way things 

should be. Accepting what has been done until now as 

the order to be followed in future is one version of the 

‘naturalistic fallacy’: in spite of widespread beliefs, no 

‘is’ can ever constitute a sufficient basis for determining 

the ‘ought’. In following this path, one finally produces 

an inflation of words, which may sound like justifications to the credulous but must fail in complete reality. 

An economics allowing ‘laissez-faire’ finally fosters the 

law of the jungle. By prolonging habits of the past instead 

of achieving fundamental clarifications, mainstream 

economic thinking has allowed moral weaknesses to 

thrive—to the point that agents in the resulting system 

became psychologically dependent on them. This shows 

in needs of publicity to keep consumption going, or in the 

irrational pursuit of economic growth due to an addiction 

to high returns of investment. By its type of approach, 

such a theoretical system can’t contribute directly to 

moral strength. Tougher ethics can’t lead to a real cure, 

because the morally conditioning influ­ences reach more 

deeply than such correctives can ever handle. Under such 

conditions it is no coincidence that only few cultivate an 

understanding of life, and the respect for it as a whole.

The biotic resources and their particular qualities—impossibility of exponential growth, restrictions in time 

use due to renewability cycles, hence an impossibility 

of utilizing fully the production capacities, and a relative 

unattractiveness for monetary capital seeking returns on 

investment, etc.,—led historically to incompatibilities 

with the logic of property. The sheer dependency of 

society on biotic resources has made necessary some 

restrictions of this logic, for example as rural rights of 

inheritance, environmental and developmental planning, 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 967

subsidies and protective tariffs. The actual dependency 

leads to double-faced official reactions: on the one hand 

proclaiming rules as stipulated by the WTO, on the other 

hand trying to maintain a protective agenda. Property is 

a reasonable relation for handling inert entities, but it 

produces tensions—thus reducing the overall efficiency 

of the process—when dealing with alive ones. Wanting to 

manage scarce resources instead of fitting the man-made 

process into the natural process, any exploitable potential 

is being called a resource, encouraging boundless pillage. 

But resources being scarce is not as primordial as their 

being available in nature’s organization. Imagine living 

on a barren rock! In agriculture, introducing industrial 

technology up to genetic manipulation can’t offer sustainable solutions, as it shifts the problem to other realms by 

not addressing the overall law of the process. A problem 

can become invisible in a theory, but conflictual results 

finally always call us back. Some aspects of the real 

solution have always existed, but were pushed aside 

by powerful interests vested into the logic of property. 

They can be found from works in the Marxian tradition 

to Veblen [1919] and modern ones such as Steppacher 

et al. [1977], or Heinsohn and Steiger [1996].

Problems stem also from neglecting the distinction 

between the use value and the exchange value of goods. 

Adam Smith eliminated the use value as a result of thinking in terms of trade, believing the exchange value reflects 

adequately all of economic reality. One consequence is the 

‘diamond-water paradox’: why are actually useless diamonds expensive while water, essential to all forms of life, 

is cheap? Believing the value of goods is determined by 

what the agent is ready to trade in (the imaginary values of 

‘subjective value theory’), overlooks the real value (or use 

value), which determines existential reality and hence also 

politics. This view forgets the law of nature that governs all 

forms of economy: the act of setting resources into value 

is the necessary and sufficient condition for carrying the 

whole economic process and constitutes thus the fundamental form of capital, prior to any subjective assessment 

(in monetary or other terms) and to activities like saving 

or investing. Usual forms of economic value—property, 

monetary capital, interest, means of production, labor, 

human capital, natural capital, etc.,—are secondary, a 

juxtaposed layer of imaginary values (Schaerer [2003b]). 

This intrinsic overall law of the ecosocial process contains 

as aspects the usual laws of economics (e.g., production 

function, law of diminishing return etc.), and governs 

all economies—irrespective of being subsistence toil or 

high-tech, involve money or not, are capitalist or socialist, 

growing or recessive, etc. Due to its ‘enveloping’ quality, 

this law is a solid basis for determining the real value of 

money—in contrast to the intrinsically limited considerations via the social product.

Since theory did not discover the law of nature that 

governs all forms of economy, it could not optimize and 

harmonize the economic process out of a secure overview, but had to take archaic pseudo-optimizing features 

such as personal interests (‘homo oeconomicus’), the 

need to know (‘complete information’), or the need to 

survive (‘competition’) as allegedly relevant theoretical 

elements. Once the idea of exchanging goods is chosen 

as the theoretical basis—not the ecosocial process—the 

whole can be grasped only in its trade and commerce 

aspect. As a result, all income must be squeezed out of 

this type of activity while the theory excludes sources 

and sinks of the process, locking them up in ‘ceteris 

paribus’ clauses. Theory sacri­ficed the overall advantage 

of division of labor to its one-eyed view, and allowed 

survival to depend on squandering resources, producing 

ever more scarcity: now all agents are coerced into the 

role of the (entrepreneurial) middleman for ensuring their 

subsistence by fighting for income. Consumer prices may 

be lowered a bit in this way—but at a high social cost 

which no traditional balance sheet reveals. Now the sectors of the ecosocial process that can’t offer quick returns 

on investment because their efforts become appreciable 

only in the future—e.g., agriculture, education, health 

care, the social process called ‘the state,’ etc.,—suffer 

from a shortage of investment (money). Probably nobody 

wanted money to become scarce in these sectors, but this 

is the systemic result. It would not occur on the basis of 

the said law of real value, which is generally valid, even 

in a universe of purely mental matter, in mental economy: 

the necessity for future cognition to produce first a set 

of mental representations (a language), is of the same 

order, since the use of signs is necessary for organizing 

the ever-new process of cognizing (fig. 3).

The point is that all the decisive elements of this 

structure follow from purely conceptual distinctions. Any 

empirical element enters the scene only in ulterior steps. 

The real solution therefore is in a fully clarified conceptual basis. There is an increasing debate on weak points 

of the ruling type of economics—for example in Daly 

[1996], [2001], McCloskey [1996], [1998], Ormerod 

[1997], Galbraith [2000], Keen [2001], Bernstein [2001], 

Nelson and Stackhouse [2001], Rees [2002], Stiglitz 

[2002], Lee [2003], Fullbrook [2003], [2004], etc..

So much for economics as symptomatic example 

of a doubtful conceptual foundation. The problematic 

point, namely belief, can obviously not be eradicated 

from social interaction—especially in everyday life. For 

instance in a foreign town, inquiring about a location 

requires believing the informant. This is fine in pragmatic 

situations where following an erroneous path implies no 

danger. But, in scientific theories, belief as a basis should 

have no chance at all. Not only can it lead to erroneous 
968 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

knowledge, which is a general social good that endangers others when it is unreliable. Beyond this aspect, 

not noticing the problematic conceptual foundation of 

a theoretical structure is methodologically inefficient, 

because the phenomena then impose—through their 

intrinsic interconnectedness—ever more subdifferentiations and classifications, ever more detailing (many 

believe this to be progress because of clever-looking 

casuistries and mathematics). Nevertheless, the substance 

of the distinctions can fall into place only when it can 

enter the considerations in a non-adulterated way at the 

primal level of conceptualizing the problem as a whole. 

In principle, philosophy and science are our institutions 

for doing so.

The Symptoms of the Problem, 

in Philosophy and Science as a 

Type of Endeavor

The objective of this symposium, seeking to ascertain 

everything relevant for sustaining resources, is only a 

partial problem of philosophy and science, but reflects 

all basic issues. It is a challenging endeavor already as 

such: whatever field one studies—ecosystem parameters, 

climatic dynamics, policy making, techniques of management, measuring, monitoring, etc.,—at the end of a line, 

the more one is involved, the more something at the edge 

must be given up for not getting lost in a maze, while 

the real problem is nevertheless connected to just about 

everything else on this planet. Those who do not approve 

of the sacrifice might wonder how such a bag of fleas can 

ever be contained in a rational conceptualization that is 

peacefully beyond the paradox effects of observing and 

describing, or the fuzzyness of mere probabilism which 

characterizes today’s widespread emphasis on quantity 

and statistics. Thompson Klein [2003] offers a good overview over the current debates in the wider earth sciences. 

But can science, as a way of proceeding intellectually, 

ever be secure and thus sustainable on principle? How 

can we clarify this point, which finally implies complete 

self-referentiality?

There is obviously a problem of true science versus 

mediocre science, but the criteria for distinguishing them 

are far from being obvious. Some believe ‘sound science’ is distinct from ‘junk science’ by knowing how to 

measure correctly—where the problem remains of how to 

ascertain (in this view: measure) the instrument, namely 

science itself. Others emphasize the value of ‘thinking 

big’ (i.e., beyond usual limits)—but can propose only 

pragmatic hopes, no systematic guidelines, so one never 

knows whether one is slipping into ‘thinking grandiosely, 

but slightly wrong,’ or even ‘thinking bloated.’ In the 

contemporary mainstream, the ultimately objective criterion for strictly complete and secure science remains 

an unsolved issue.

Such gaps are no coincidence, but only the result of 

how philosophy and science in general are now structured. At first glance they seem to constitute a very 

pluralistic network, but this is only because a common 

feature is not duly recognized, whose effect glues them 

all together: they all set out from fundamental assumptions of whatever sort. As this inevitably is a way of 

‘talking’ into the overall interconnection of content before it has been given a chance to unravel as a whole to 

awareness, they wind up in problems on principle—for 

example undecidability (remember Kurt Gödel, or the 

continuum problem), or uncertainty (as e.g., Edmund 

Gettier has revealed), or indeterminacy (as e.g., in 

quantum theory), or paradoxes (e.g., the ‘blind spot’ 

of systems theory), etc.. Philosophy ended up in ideas 

such as the ‘Münchhausen trilemma’ (formulated by 

many from Agrippa to Hans Albert: any justification or 

account winds up in a circularity, an infinite regress, or 

a dogma), ‘écart’ (Merlau-Ponty), ‘différance’ (Derrida), 

etc. Such notions formulate an aspect of the general limit, 

depending on the basis of the respective approach. The 

basic gesture of positing an idea, however ‘plausible,’ 

has more consequences than we are commonly being 

told. Whether an assumption is conscious and rational 

(‘atomic fact,’ axiom, definition, hypothesis, postulate, 

premise, etc.), or emotional or unconscious (anxiety, 

belief, desire, hope, illusion, paradigm, etc.), does not 

modify its effectiveness. The difference between rational 

and irrational prejudices is only that rational ones allow 

logically consistent systems to be set up. But even the 

strictest logical consistency can never warrant any actual 

completeness of grasp and certainty. The completeness 

in formal systems is far from covering reality. In language-based considerations, completeness and certainty 

inevitably must look like a quantitative problem of getting hold of all relevant propositions. But the core issues 

can’t be solved there.

The limit is not unknown, but discussing it within 

the mainstream leads to results that are not ultimately 

dependable: a knowledge within limits is also of limited 

validity when it judges the limit itself. This restricts the 

real sustainabilty of mainstream science, because within 

it one cannot know where the problem finally is. This 

is not to say that the limited theories are simply wrong. 

They do offer successes, at least at first, when manipulating ‘things,’ including one’s own mind. Achieving 

effects through manipulation still is attractive worldwide; 

hence many accept the belief that this is a beneficial path, 

and the powerful nourish the sources of manipulability. 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 969

Attitudes such as technocracy, materialism, or consumism are no coincidence, but effects of a locally rational 

behaviour that is globally irrational. The corresponding 

results include a reduced overall sustainability. The question is: how can we find a viable solution?

One can choose not to care about theory, for proceeding pragmatically; this is widespread. But whatever the 

basis of a pragmatism may be, it can never offer a systematic basis because it takes for granted the overall order 

instead of being able to explain completely its structure. 

Pragmatic stances lack precisely the kind of knowledge 

that allows for secure sustainability. But one can wonder 

and take seriously the nature of basic assumptions and 

beliefs. Where this is not done, science can become a tool 

for eluding one’s responsibility for totality—in this case: 

thinking about thinking—by allowing to escape into ever 

new fields of ‘progress,’ ‘truth,’ and ‘knowledge,’ instead 

of fully facing the crucial issues: that (a) everything appears to us according to our primal distinctions (problem 

of categoriality), and (b) we can’t stop thinking, but we 

always direct it by accepting the focus of our attention 

(problem of intentionality); even when we believe we 

do nothing we always direct our flow by the focus we 

accept. Any bias has its effect. For example believing 

that nature basically consists of mechanisms will yield 

the corresponding theories and scientific models, which 

have their grain of truth, but also their limit of validity. 

By the way, nature can be thought in a totally organic 

way without needing the concept of a Supreme Creator, 

as for example in the process philosophy of Alfred North 

Whitehead (‘systematic attentiveness’ constitutes a viable alternative).

Seeking unification by addressing totality is typically 

the aim of religion. Since classical antiquity there have 

always been two strands of this endeavor: one seeking a 

rational grasp of the conceptual means for handling strict 

totality, and one of seeking the kind of insights that allows to dispense revelatory knowledge. Acquiring these 

insights requires discipline in mental openness, which 

may seem superhuman; especially adepts of some mystical traditions believe thus it is possible only by ‘stopping 

to think.’ The point really is in what is being meant by 

‘thinking.’ Certain psycho-organic techniques allow to 

block the mental process, which nature re-equilibrates 

in ‘breakthrough’ experiences of mental light (hence 

the name ‘enlightenment’). These do not prove having 

stopped the mind as such, however; they are the result of 

immense mental efforts while the subjacent organizing 

activity remains, unnoticed. Yet such impressive experiences reveal—even if only for the short moment they 

last—the overall structure of the mind in a special state, in 

which the (blocking) doer and the (blocked) result seem 

to be one and the same, because they mirror each other. 

The question is how such acts and experiences, and the 

memories they engender, should be interpreted. One of 

the profound realities to be understood is the mirroring 

quality of the mental realm. The use of mental blocking 

techniques may finally lead to certain quite deep insights, 

but how can we be sure that they really cover absolutely 

everything? To be convinced by an experience is still a 

form of belief, not yet the guarantee of a complete understanding. It is helpful to distinguish the basic gesture 

of belief or what I call confessio (belief in foundational 

ideas or statements, which lead to mere professing and 

declaring) and the principle of religio (the rational gesture 

of ‘connecting to the whole,’ the basis of secure insight). 

The point is that staunch belief can only end in dogma, 

producing new forms of wars of ideology—the ‘tower 

of Babel’ problem. In the last instance we can’t escape 

the need for conceptual (or rather: categorial) clarification—which does not mean, however, that habitual ways 

of conceptualizing the act of conceptualizing have been 

adequate.

You might notice that I do not only offer abstractions. 

I address also the practical view of self-referentiality by 

speaking about experiencing your own doings in your 

own mind, not just rashly using it and taking for granted 

its functions, in this way reducing it to a mechanism, a 

mere slave. Instead I encourage the integrity of being 

completely aware, also of what happens in your mind. At 

first glance this method of your experiencing your mental 

activity might look like mere subjectivity. But let us be 

precise. The point is that the conditions for achieving 

any objectivity must be produced by the subject—in this 

case you. Personally producing adequate conditions for 

objectivity to be able to express itself is not a contradiction. The question is how can this reliably be done? what 

is the locus of ultimate objectivity? Instead of expressing 

a hypothesis, at this point I propose to work through the 

ways in which objectivity usually was sought, and the 

ways in which they have failed. On this path we can learn 

something also about the nature of objectivity.

The Produced Limits in Actual 

Knowledge

While the fundamental cause of the exposed limit in 

the hitherto usual methods for gaining knowledge is in 

the habit of setting out from assumptions, this habit led 

to a series of several structures that are causal for fragmentizing and limiting end effects. A splitup—as the final 

consequence of presupposing (‘talking’ into the issue as 

a whole, instead of ‘listening’ into all of the interconnectively relevant content)—can take many shapes, the 
970 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

study of which can reveal some of the mechanism of 

self-limitation.

An important feature of assumptions concerning 

ourselves as cognizing organisms is their absolute and 

precise effectiveness. Believing for example that ‘X is 

unknowable,’ or ‘the mind is an Y,’ or ‘complete integrity is unattainable,’ actually makes X unknowable for the 

believer, allows only Y-type characteristics of the mind 

to be known, and will foil complete integrity indeed. 

Believing for instance in the results of the cognitive 

sciences and neurosciences is of this type that fosters 

self-estrangement; not computers are dangerous to 

society, but people who robotize themselves. Knowing 

about this type of limit is exact as soon as one knows 

the self-oriented presuppositions, since they operate 

‘from within’ thinking. Presuppositions that determine 

the mental process, through which the mental process 

itself is then being judged, can evidently have no other 

effect than precisely what their content dictates. The 

less one is aware of the presupposition, the more easily one will slip into the circularity of an addiction, but 

becoming aware of it removes the spell (for example 

psychoanalysis works in this way). In contrast to this 

precision of content, any knowledge that is based on 

observing processes ‘from outside’ can never reach the 

respective core—as Kant had to state concerning his 

‘thing as such’—and therefore can yield only probabilistic results, in which the single case and the covering 

law (the overall order of phenomenon) elude the method. 

The widespread turn of late towards statistical methods 

is no improvement, but a concession to the drawbacks 

of external observation because it has become ubiquitous. The insight is crucial that these limits or split-ups 

are all man-made. A belief does not become objective 

by projec­ting the respective fantasy into its medium of 

appearance, as for example Churchland [1994] does, 

concerning causality:

“Electrical current in a wire is not caused by 

moving electrons; it is moving electrons. Genes 

are not caused by chunks of base pairs in DNA; 

they are chunks of base pairs. Heat is not caused 

by the movement of atoms, it is the movement of 

atoms ... [and in the same sense] awareness just 

is some pattern of activity in neurons.”

because this seeming objectivity merely shifts a basic 

lack of explanation into ever smaller ‘pieces,’ onto ever 

new levels of mystery, producing new splitups. Many 

call this progress, because new elements seem to become 

accessible. In such attitudes, what reality ultimately 

is—in Churchland’s case: effects in matter, beyond its 

finite bits and pieces—is not being clarified. Especially 

philosophers give up their credibility when they give up 

the objective of ultimate clarification, in this case succumbing to ‘naturalization’ (believing blindly in natural 

science).

A splitup can result from confusing the modes of 

language and fully coherent thinking. This difference 

was blurred by the ‘linguistic turn’ (a widespread turn in 

philosophy, based on the assumption that thinking must 

be structured discursively, if it is to be rational). In its 

heyday, reviving the distinction must sound like blasphemy to many. But their god is, as we saw, not firmly 

in his saddle—held only by belief, not secure knowledge. 

Saussure proposed a useful distinction between language 

as a system (‘langue’) and the use of language as an alive 

process (‘parole’). Spoken ‘parole’ is always beyond 

structural ‘langue.’ But for clarifiying fully the issue, 

language as a principle must be considered in a wider 

way than what is proposed by the linguistic approach, 

because it is centered too much on the signs and neglects 

thus the core: the signified content as such. Once one 

is stuck with results of thinking content (propositions, 

signs, etc.), the adequacy of an expression (often this is 

called ‘truth’) can only be measured within language 

against reality, in a procedure that requires thus another 

linguistic element (or a network of such), because reality 

does not respond directly. But then any investigation has 

no anchor in overall reality, it can only float on the sea 

of purely man-made, intersubjectively agreed opinions 

(beliefs). This method can offer no warranty against collective error, while it neglects a structurally fundamental 

difference between language and thinking. Consider the 

following basic regularity. Within language any contradiction can be formulated, from ‘straight is curved’ and 

‘3+5=9’ to antinomies like ‘I am lying,’ up to voluntary 

deception—while it is impossible to think such linguistic structures in one single coherent thought. Whoever 

adopts fundamental beliefs that lead to some paradox 

is compelled—for accommodating it coherently—to 

remain within the corresponding set of elements (signs) 

that are intrinsically interrelated according to the causal 

prejudice. But ‘interrelation between a set of signs’ is 

the intrinsic law of being a language system (Saussure: 

‘langue’), not mere noise. Sticking to beliefs produces 

thus a dependency on ‘langue’ for keeping together the 

assumption’s effect. Without ‘langue’ everything would 

fall to pieces for this psyche—but it cannot remain only 

within it, because ‘langue’ can contain only the past. Life 

is pointless when restricted to unalterability; this is why 

spoken ‘parole’ is always beyond structural ‘langue.’ For 

example, using the personal pronoun ‘I’ can be authentic (in psychic integrity), or false (when remaining in 

‘langue’); fully understanding the self-referential unity 

of personal identity requires transcending ‘langue’ and is 

thus possible only in pure thought, considering content 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 971

as such. Language offers a surrogate for perception, allowing to deal with what is not physically present. It is 

not the basis of all of thinking, even though many people 

are indeed conditioned to ways of thinking that remain in 

a mental use of language in forms of ‘talking to oneself.’ 

The question remains of how thinking can be sure of 

its dealing with reality, beyond anthropocentrism. The 

call for justifying beliefs, as must be postulated upon 

following the ‘linguistic turn,’ is no ideal solution but 

produces a fateful dependency on intersubjectivity and 

makes theories into cobwebs of hypotheses. As stated 

in the Duhem-Quine thesis, a single hypothesis can’t be 

tested in isolation, because all others are implied too; 

inversely, by sufficiently modifying those, practically 

anything can be made to sound like being justified (e.g., 

Davidson [1984]). A connection between problematic 

suppositions and a subsequent addiction to language is 

not limited to individuals, but can arise in styles of writing or of politics, schools of thought, philosophical or 

scientific positions, institutions, etc. In this light, ‘publish 

or perish’ is perilous, as it engenders a semiotic infarct.

A splitup can also result from an emphasis on measuring appearances, thus losing contact with the overall 

order according to which they arise, exist for their time, 

vanish, and reappear renewed in what can be called ‘the 

four seasons of being.’ The centerpieces of intelligibility, i.e., the conceptual elements that determine a real 

understanding of appearances—for example laws and 

forces—are not observable and hence not measurable 

as such, but only their effects. The decisive elements 

can be grasped as such only in thinking, and even then 

only under the appropriate conditions. Nevertheless, the 

idea of measuring has practically been made into the 

guideline of today’s science. What can’t be measured is 

left up to thinking in terms of ‘values,’ which can never 

reach beyond a certain vagueness, or to religious considerations. Yet thinking in terms of measuring injects a 

specific content into the research process: a comparison 

with an alien element. Measuring is indeed possible only 

after having posited conceptually an element of reference, which cannot avoid embodying some arbitrarity; 

this element explains why for instance the measurement 

problem of quantum theory—often hailed as the only 

fully secure theory—can’t be solved materially in a 

strictly complete way. In the course of its development, 

this theory has led to a hunch that matter finally does not 

consist of fundamental pieces (even if entities do exist, 

but only for their duration of time). The separability of 

physical systems—an idea that even Einstein never gave 

up—had thus to be abandoned. But the separability of 

observables (such as location, velocity, spin, impulse, 

etc.) was kept; these are what is being measured. The 

result is the paradox features of this theory: At the ‘small’ 

end it features an indeterminacy that can only be shifted 

into ‘new’ areas (e.g., of time or space), and at the ‘large’ 

end it is conceptually compelled to postulate ‘emergent’ 

features of objects; complementarity arises at the ‘observable’ end, and nonlocality at the ‘relational’ end, because 

matter does indeed not consist of basic pieces. The idea 

of ‘entanglement’ illustrates the conceptual problems, 

but has no explanatory value. The theory is always correct, even in counter-intuitive setups—but because of its 

paradoxes, or more precisely because of the conceptual 

basics that generate its paradoxes, the results of this 

theory always require an interpretation. Currently there is 

about a dozen of them, but none is strictly conclusive. In 

spite of its correctness in any given material setup, even 

the quantum approach is therefore not an adequate basis 

for unifying knowledge. Prolonging it into the theory of 

self-organization (‘autopoiesis’) or complexity theory 

(as in the Santa Fé Institute) does not solve the issue, but 

only shifts its ‘blind spot’ somewhere else.

Another version of the splitup results from hoping to 

achieve objectivity by approaching things ‘from the outside’, following René Descartes’ idea of separating mind 

from matter for understanding reality. In this vein, even 

the functions of the mind have been subjected to the seeming objectivity of a functional view, expecting for instance 

reason or perception to work like mechanisms. Whether 

the seemingly objective gesture is one of distinguishing, observing, describing, measuring, or intervening, 

is finally irrelevant: it is always one of comparing the 

subject matter with something else, alien to it. This gesture inevitably creates a corresponding ‘blind spot’—for 

example an observer can observe everything except his 

own act of observing. Logicians discovered that the blind 

spot cannot be discovered from within the system: The 

system can’t see what it can’t see, and it can’t see that it 

can’t see what it can’t see—namely the paradox that the 

system, splitting up the universe between system and 

environment, must on the one hand be distinct from this 

distinction, while it must on the other hand exist within 

this distinction as part of the whole and hence as an object 

of investigation. In this paradoxical situation, observing 

other observers in their activity of observing can look 

helpful, but the blind spot can never be overcome, it can 

merely be shifted around (Luhmann discusses this aspect 

eloquently in his systems theory, but can offer no solution 

on prin­ciple). Whether one considers material things or 

mental elements, is irrelevant, because both are not the 

respective order as such, but only its manifestations and 

hence appearances—in the external world or in the mind. 

In this context it is useful to remember that mathematics 

can never offer more than a description, as it is only a 

language, albeit a precise and completely formalized 

one. Especially in its algebraic branch, mathematics can 
972 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

never get rid of its language status because it is formal: 

the symbols stand for something else. The syntactic information ‘hidden’ in a language should not be expected 

to yield new truth just because it leads easily from one 

logical step to another (a fallacy arising often e.g., in 

physicist’s or economist’s thoughts). Terms in an equation take their meaning from conceptual attributions in 

that application, not only from the interrelation between 

terms. Remaining within a system (i.e., way of thinking) that is not totally clarified, can finally only suggest 

an arbitrary move—an auxiliary hypothesis, etc.—for 

‘outgrowing’ its drawback at the edge. Such epicycles 

make the problem reappear in a ‘new’ area; in this way, 

e.g., agency has forever been sought in ever smaller ‘basic 

elements’, even though inert matter can’t really act. The 

nature of today’s mainstream is indeed fundamentally 

conflictual, making it into part of the problem rather 

than its complete solution. Its fundamental problems are 

usually not being solved, but only avoided. Sometimes 

evasions look extremely successful at first—in logics for 

instance Tarski’s approach to the concept of truth, seeking 

to avoid formal paradox by introducing meta-languages, 

separated from the object-languages—while in new perspectives any meta-language is again an object-language 

and the meta-language of all meta-languages is everyday 

language –; or in type theory (Russell and Whitehead), 

segregating propositional properties, relations and sets, 

into ‘types’—which does not clarify the ultimate basis 

for, and effects of, performing this type of segregation –; 

or in Spencer-Brown’s protologic based on the primal act 

of distinguishing—with its problem of ‘re-entry’ because 

distin­guishing presupposes distinctions, otherwise there 

would be nothing to choose ‘primally.’ As outlined above, 

the gesture of trying to escape engenders the structure of 

language and ‘justifi­cation’—as opposed to the unifying 

effect of integrative thinking. Thinking is the process of 

relating to forms of order, producing linguistic elements. 

Hence the question is how to think order as such, not only 

how to get along with appearances and talk about them.

Here we are not denying that knowledge can be 

unified to quite an extent and under many banners, for 

instance under measurement, statistics, or language—in 

the same way as many definitions and theories of a given 

phenomenon are possible, which moreover need not 

exclude each other. For example the pure order (law) 

of the circle in plane geometry can be approached and 

defined in many ways, manifesting different types of 

interest: in terms of distance from a given point, or of 

curvature, or of the rectangular point of all triangles over 

a line, etc. (fig. 1).

Or in today’s physics, matter can be approached via the 

quantum, relativity, nonlinear dynamics, quantum field, 

string, or any other perspective. Again one is coerced 

by the type of interest, determined by what one wants to 

measure—the infinitely small, or movement, or changes 

in appearance, etc. All these approaches rely on the ‘mental gesture’ of measuring—but none can offer a com­plete 

understanding of its object’s intrinsic nature, because 

they all operate in categories that are inade­quate to the 

respective overall order as such, in this case of materiality. Whether they finally are verifying their theory, or 

caught up in some self-fulfilling prophecy, is empirically 

undecidable, since any setup considered in the language 

of measuring always reconfirms this language, but its 

blind spot remains. Setting out from preconceptions is a 

sure-fire path towards finding only aspects. This is why 

contemporary physics cannot get together all its theories 

in a strict way. Achieving this requires complete clarity 

beyond any specific object-orientation: purely categorial work. Operating within distinctions which stem 

from measuring can on principle never yield a complete 

understanding of the intrinsic nature of matter, because 

they inevitably introduce an alien element. Remaining 

on paths that can only ignore the ultimate nature of matter, while professing a ‘materialism,’ is thus something 

rather oxymoronic, in spite of being very widespread. 

It is in fact an idealism (or rather a fantasism), because 

one sets out only on metaphysical beliefs. Being able to 

Figure 1. Lawfulness and its material 

appearances N in mind as definitions, 

in material matter as specimens.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 973

manipulate matter according to found laws is no proof of 

complete understanding: any animal can produce change 

without needing to know all of why the desired change 

occurs. This loud call for ethics of late is due to this 

gap. In the end the problems are always on the cognitive 

level: also the moral philosopher must understand why 

some idea or action is good or not. The question is on 

which channel the universal laws are being referred to, 

for commitments to be generalizable.

A noteworthy point is that the centerpieces of intelligibility, i.e., the conceptual elements that determine 

the full understanding of appearances—for example in 

a processual approach: laws and forces—are never observable and thus not measurable as such, but only their 

effects. As the example of the circle shows, the means 

for intelligibility become propositional only upon being 

approached from a perspective, i.e., upon being interested 

in them in a specific way. As such, forms of order are 

nothing but themselves. This is not in contradiction with 

the fact that they can be characterized by their content, 

which interrelates with the content of all other forms of 

pure order, up to the overall order of the universe. For 

the intelligibility of order, conceptually polar aspects 

are relevant. Polarities are total opposites; appearances 

(materiality) can’t be manifestly polar—simultaneously 

also immaterial and still material –; therefore materiality 

displays dual aspects (e.g., symmetries in physics and in 

living beings). Judging a form of order is not being that 

order, unless the act of judging conceptually is purely that 

order. A comparison with an infinitesimal alien element 

may seem negligible, but always has its price on the level 

of strict totality: a paradox, a gap, a (self)-limitation in 

the theoretical understanding. Struggling for complete 

transparency (which can be called truth) always makes 

sense, while material strife is finally always pointless.

Methodologies based on assumptions allow a certain 

degree of sustainability, reflected in phrases like “sustainability of what sort, for whom” etc.. The multitude of 

partial truths then becomes a problem: how should they 

be unified? Beyond that, aiming at real sustainability 

merits a better grasp than adding up piecemeal results. 

Seeking the ‘optimal assumption’ won’t solve the crux, 

because any presupposition inevitably compromises the 

respective approach. The question is with how much 

(un)certainty one is ready to acquiesce. This in turn 

depends on the choices one has. We saw that wanting to 

grab the overall order in appearances, even in what appears in the mind, leads imperceptibly to a loss of what 

one is ultimately aiming at. There are better choices, 

but they are barely ever thought of. This is the tragedy 

of our times.

For determining types of knowledge which allow a 

secure overview, ideas for ‘logical’, ‘metaphysical’, and 

‘moral’ certainty were proposed, but there is little assent on 

the whole. Mittelstrass [1982] distinguishes ‘knowledge 

for the sake of orientation’ vs. ‘knowledge for the sake 

of action’ (‘Orientierungswissen’/’Verfügungswissen’). 

But he too does not base the more complete type of 

knowledge (seeking/offering orientation) systematically 

in a universal way; in spite of his intention he remains in 

the linguistic turn and its intrinsic self-limitation.

For closing the gap I propose a completely uncompromised distinction, namely between the language of 

intelligibility and the language of manipulability. The first 

consists of laws (forms of order, pure structure), which 

we grasp by means of concepts, ideas, or representations 

that can be communicated by using names and predicates; 

all forms of understanding are ways of grasping the ultimately relevant order. The language of manipulability 

consists of names and predicates (‘handles’ for catching 

‘things’ in representations). At first glance it seems to allow complete intelligibility; only upon thinking through 

the network of all names and predicates, one can notice 

that it can’t cover strictly the whole, that something is 

missing somehow, can’t fully be understood, or produces 

surprises. Remaining in the language of manipulability 

impedes knowing just what goes wrong. An example 

is causation—think e.g., of the ‘covering-law’ type of 

explanation that can’t allow to know on its own whether 

the explanandum is causally effective, or a necessary 

condition, or an inevitable concomitant element. The 

distinction of two ‘languages of thinking’ is similar 

to Mittelstrass’ of two types of knowledge, but more 

promising, as he offers no proposal for overcoming the 

language of manipulability. Remaining within it while 

believing it can serve as language of intelligibility 

logically must lead to believing the encountered limit 

is absolute—while only the belief in the language of 

manipulability is absolute. Such knots are unnecessary. 

The failures they produce often are noticeable only much 

later. Many need to experience failure for wanting to 

learn, but it’s more efficient to think clearly beforehand, 

addressing the fundamental issues. This is the substance 

of culture.

The Ideas of Mechanism 

and Organism as Mirrors of 

Sustainable States

In a figurative sense, problems of sustainability can 

also be viewed as problems of overall health and disease 

of systems and even of theories—healthy in the sense 

of being sustainable, where noxious influences call for 

corrective action in the same sense as implementing a 
974 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

cure for inducing a healing process. One can question the 

rationality of this analogy, since the patient in nature is 

not as evident as the patient in medicine, and theories are 

rarely viewed as something whose correction is in fact 

a healing process. But are these the truly fundamental 

points? Already in the traditional medical situation the 

question is whether the interconnections can be grasped 

in an ultimately valid way. After all, medicine is held to 

be part of natural science, while no process is healthy or 

unhealthy per se, but only in an organic context. What 

does this context encompass? All physiological data, or 

also the process of body regulation? Only once the very 

principles are clarified, which become manifest in health 

and disease, their domain of applicability can securely be 

assessed. The structure of physiological data, in which 

the health of an organism can be described, does not contain the way it maintains its health, but only the tangible 

result of its doings, and health allows and even implies 

ongoing development. On the other hand, disease cannot 

securely be grasped by determining the elements that 

many believe to be causal (influences such as viruses, 

bacteria, ameba, poisons, etc.), because individuals do 

not all react in exactly the same way. Additional aspects 

must be taken into consideration.

In these questions too the view is determined by the 

categorial foundation, i.e., the basic ideas in which health 

and disease are being mirrored. Contemporary natural 

science has chosen the basic idea of mechanism and is 

trying to formulate the principle of organism in terms 

of structured mechanisms. This is the course of action 

in modern biology, based on the ‘New Synthesis’ of 

Darwinian and Mendelian lines of thought. Here too the 

investigations were led into ever smaller details—microbiology, in its widest sense—without noticing that the 

path is imposed by the categorial choice (this mental 

mechanism has been explained ealier). For discussing the 

implied crux, here we will consider especially an example 

in medicine, namely Paul Thagard’s widely acclaimed 

book How Scientists Explain Disease [1999].

An analogy of the human organism and the organism 

of reality as a whole is of course very problematic to 

the contemporanean mind, because there is a priori no 

evidence for this link, but at best some vague or even 

mystical old sayings such as “as above, so below,” 

which can indeed seduce into fantastic misconceptions 

when formulated out of inadequate basic ideas. Yet on 

the other hand there is no proof for the irrelevance or 

even absence of this link. While a person can be held 

accountable for sensing its limbs and hence being able 

to equilibrate herself towards health, in nature or natural 

systems there is no tangible person. But here too we are 

confronted with the question of how, or more precisely 

through what ideational mirrors, the subject matter of 

regulation is being approached and thought. It is evident 

that the choice of ‘mechanism’ as the guiding idea can 

only yield perspectives and problem solutions in terms 

of mechanisms. The question is how adequate is this 

approach? On the meta-level there is the question of 

how adequacy can be ascertained. Can for example a 

technique for suppressing the symptoms of disease be 

called a successful means for healing? There is a question of frames of reference, on which not everybody 

agrees. For some, getting rid of symptoms is health, 

while others consider side-effects, relapses, the gained 

personal strength in overcoming on their own the 

disease’s nature, etc. Hence part of the problem is that 

also the practical results are being judged—as much by 

doctors as by patients—through an ideational mirror. If 

it is the same as the one that led into the situation, the 

‘blind spot’ remains and erroneous aspects can’t become 

perceptible—in spite of all empirical evidence—until a 

situation becomes grotesque, maybe revealing the crux 

even to an untrained eye. One can think for instance of 

a disease that is held to be normal in one society, while 

in some other one it appears as a result of bad habits or 

mad ideas. For a secure assessment one can’t escape the 

need for grasping the problem as a whole.

In humans, health regulation occurs partly in ways 

that are given by nature—for instance in digestion or 

respiration—and partly through sensing one’s own organism, which implies the mind. The mind must find its 

bearings in its own organic body, but this is not one-way 

traffic: in doing so it develops conceptually its capacity 

of dealing with its body. It is thus reasonable to view 

the organism as the wholeness of body and mind in a 

dialectical process.

Hence organic regulation does not necessarily imply a 

mind, while any mind must produce its adequate conceptual means, for which its body is the teacher. The question 

finally is in what terms one approaches the issue. Even on 

the theoretical level there are indications for a complete 

interrelation (‘organic interconnectedness’) already in 

the realm of inert matter itself; we might remember the 

immediacy of action-reaction, and the fact of quantum 

nonlocality. In the alive Body (‘Leib,’ body and mind), 

the gist of being organic is in its structure of conscious 

“double sensations” (Husserl [1952]), which no kind of 

mechanism can replace or reproduce: sensing for example the left hand by touching it with the right hand is 

impossible without the left hand sensing simultaneously 

also the right hand. The point here is that organic bodies 

are not built along intensive quantities (such as charge, 

pressure, temperature, or volume)—which today’s science chose for depicting nature—but along hierarchies 

of equilibria. Since the organic body operates in selfreferentiality, it can create its instrumentation in a free 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 975

way—conceptually not in rigid object-oriented fixations 

(‘names and predicates,’ language of manipulability), but 

in ‘pincer’-type structures; manifestations of this “double 

sensation” type range from the symmetry of the prehensile hands to the necessary conceptual polarization in 

complete forms of conceptualizing. The brief digression 

here is to indicate that appropriate conceptual conditions—namely a reference to universal forms of order, 

which lead to universally applicable concepts—allow to 

recognize in a unified way the intrinsic interrelatedness 

of all material structures, from the inert ones—which 

are determined by external conditions (whether by 

‘chance’ or by ‘necessity’)—to the organic ones, which 

can impose change to their own structure as well as to 

outside conditions. Grasping the nature of polarity and 

duality allows to understand how structural symmetries 

in organisms relate to conceptual polarities, and are not 

mere coincidence.

In contrast, Thagard [1999] follows contemporary 

science in holding repeatedly that—as opposed to 

mathematics and physics—there are no universal laws 

that account for the causes of disease; he deduces that 

the corresponding reasoning can thus on principle not 

be deductive. Even though this opinion is relatively 

common, it is true only within the self-limited view of 

today’s mainstream, which does not permit to know 

whether a methodology might be found that reveals 

the desired universal laws. Believing today’s habitual 

way of theorizing is the only possible one, not doubting 

the foundation of today’s mainstream, makes absolute 

today’s self-limitation in a self-contradictory way: the 

belief suggests knowing everything relevant (which is 

thus generally valid, some sort of universal law), simultaneously negating it in what is being expressed. This is a 

case of self-deception (believing one’s belief to be more 

justified than it is). It would thus be more correct to say: 

‘within the horizon of todays generally accepted beliefs 

there are no universal laws,’ for doubting the beliefs and 

remaining open for a better approach.

The problem has two essential elements: (a) what 

one believes to be a law, particularly a universal law, 

and (b) what one believes causation to be. In both questions, the context of health and disease is particularly 

interesting, because the consideration must finally cover 

totality in a strict way for offering certainty. One can of 

course acquiesce with less, but at a corresponding cost 

in understanding. Whether a view becomes majoritarian 

or minoritarian is another question, while the ultimately 

fruitful ideas never come from the majority.

In his careful analysis of today’s scientific approaches 

to disease, Thagard considers science (descriptively) as 

what scientists are actually doing—not (normatively) as 

what ought to be done for making sure the problems are 

adequately being dealt with. In his considerations, the 

latter aspect enters the stage only in a secondary way, not 

on the level of the first principles. Of course descriptive 

accounts of science can inform normative conclusions 

(said explicitly in [1999:94]), but when the certainty of 

potential knowledge is at stake, the relativity implied by 

this procedure should not be tolerated. Thagard’s stance is 

a bit astonishing, since after all he professes philosophy 

of science. But it corresponds to contemporanean habits, 

exemplifying a naturalization in thinking which shaped 

today’s majoritarian view—as much in philosophy as in 

science—in spite of incurred drawbacks, outlined above. 

Thagard, seeking to explain as much scientific work 

as one of its fields: disease, trusts his choice in saying 

“This book is about the causes of disease and the causes 

of science” [1999:preface]. In understanding science 

he seeks to bridge a gap between the ‘traditional’ view, 

perceiving science primarily as a matter of logic, and 

the ‘postmodern’ view, perceiving science primarily as 

a matter of politics. As a solution he proposes his “integrated cognitive-social explanation schema” ([1999:8]). 

In under­standing disease Thagard follows the path of 

causal structure in historically relevant disease concepts. 

A point to note here is that today’s usual interpretation 

of the Hippocratic humoral theory, accepted also by 

Thagard, does not correspond fully to the way things 

were seen in classical antiquity. The four fundamental 

elements (earth, water, air, fire) were not meant as materially palpable forms, but as the type of order which 

organizes matter in a certain way; in the same vein, the 

four humors (blood, phlegm, yellow bile, and black bile) 

did not just mean material fluids, but types of order that 

permeate in a ‘fluid’ way the organism in maintaining 

its functionality—so of course any disequilibration of 

this order of four sub-orders was causal (corresponding 

to the modern aspect of psychosomatic causation). This 

does not contradict the severe lack of empirical detail 

that lasted for centuries, limiting the language for conceptual considerations (we will come to this point later). 

Neglecting the conceptual detail, Thagard espouses the 

object-oriented materialist path, which started with the 

germ theory of infection, as initiated by Louis Pasteur, 

and had to be complemented—because of the actual complexity in disease causation—with aspects of nutrition, 

autoimmunity, genetics, and environmental influence, 

leading to ‘multifactorial’ views of disease [1999:20-36, 

148-163].

As much for explaining scientific work as disease 

causation, Thagard sets out on the idea that the whole 

complex of ‘exterior’ and ‘interior’ factors must be 

addressed [1999:5f and many indications later]. This 

is certainly the only reasonable way of approaching 

the problem. But on the systematic level he does not 
976 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

address on principle the difference between conceptual 

problems (debating empirical phenomena in a structure 

of terms) and categorial problems (fundamental distinctions that determine what structure of terms can evolve), 

even though he had worked extensively on conceptual 

revolutions—to the point of making these two words 

into the title of one of his important books (Thagard 

[1992]). Although he certainly is aware of the systematic 

relevance of the categorial aspect, it seems he does not 

yet see how it can be made fully transparent (which is 

an aim of ‘systematic attentiveness’). As a result, also 

with Thagard the crucial problems can’t be approached 

uncompromisingly. For example causation remains under the spell of mechanism as an explanatory principle 

[1999:106ff], even though—as has been exposed—for 

disease as much as for scientific activity, the ultimate root 

of causes reaches deep into the part of the personality 

that can’t be reached by mechanisms. It is true that contemporanean science is still operating on the conceptual 

foundation of mechanism, but Thagard’s topic would 

merit more critique of this approach. In scientific work, 

the relative success of vigorous interrelation among 

scientists [1999:70ff] cannot make up for the absolute 

gap produced by thinking only in terms of mechanism. 

For finding a thoroughly secure answer to the question 

“what causes scientific change?” [1999:94ff], Thagard’s 

“integrated cognitive-social explanation schema” cannot 

suffice, because it considers science only as a social process that is determined by sets of beliefs. The ‘conceptual 

unification’ he offers does not cover the crucial categorial 

level. Thagard considers only very marginally the possibility of abandoning altogether the principle of belief, 

in the skeptic attitudes that some scientists manifest, but 

he does not develop a consistent method for doing science without any belief—while relying on belief is the 

reason for wild meanders in forms of understanding, as 

history reveals. Yet most scientists are very vexed when 

confronted with the fact that their activity is ultimately 

based on mere belief (for instance in the certainty offered 

by the principle of measuring, of which they forget the 

‘blind spot’). They usually defer such questions, for 

example by attacking the questioner as a member of 

the ‘other side’ in the ‘science wars’ (opposing natural 

science and the humanities, the ‘two cultures’ according 

to C.P. Snow). But this opposition does not solve the 

problem—if only because both sides still prop up their 

systems on fundamental beliefs, albeit of a very different sort. This is why none of the two sides can win (e.g., 

Brown [2001]). In this struggle, a sustainable clarification 

and durable peace will be found only once a robust methodology is adopted that can deal uncompromisingly with 

the acquisition of knowledge, without any basic belief 

whatsoever. It is true that today’s mainstream can’t offer 

this type of methodology (above we have seen why)—but 

this situation is not “the end of history”.

Under the presently usual cognitive and theoretical 

conditions, there is thus a certain risk in trusting the offered type of explanations, as much of science as a type of 

endeavor as of the causes of disease as a type of organic 

disorder. It is interesting for example that in Thagard’s 

account the difference between curing and healing does 

not appear in a clear way. Given the presently habitual 

path of reasoning, this is no coincidence, but practically 

inevitable. Within its framework it is extremely difficult 

to know whether the explanandum is causally effective 

or only a necessary condition. In old times doctors knew 

that medicus curat, natura sanat (the doctor administers 

a cure, but it is nature that heals), acknowledging that 

human intervention can only influence conditions, but not 

impose a healing process as such. This distinction is not 

part of medical knowledge any more. We have entered an 

era of a purely technocratic type of science: it is oriented 

towards manipulating symptoms, affording no mentions 

that healing is a process in which the stricken organism 

can learn something about itself, especially about its 

needs and mental techniques of equilibration. Insofar as 

the distinction between curing and healing is abandoned, 

while medication is being administered as some sort of 

magic bullet, the difference between medicine and magic, 

or implicit coercion, is eroded. Behind the impressive 

display of ever more refined technological instrumentation, there is a relapse into old patterns of mind. As 

much the understanding of human ways of being as the 

self-understanding of the patient is at stake, including 

widespread misunderstandings of death and dying.

This aspect leads us to the ‘inner front’ of human 

beings, their self-understanding, and as a result their 

psychic status. By being implemented in practice, the 

doubtful theoretical basis of today’s mainstream produces 

myriads of microconflicts, of practically imperceptible 

clashes between the nature of things in their own right 

and the scientifically (and therefore ‘officially’) justified 

human interventions. These conflicts are accumulated 

and amount to something like an invisible wall that nevertheless determines the course of the individual. This is 

not to say that ancient times were always better, but that 

the massiveness of belief in today’s habitual approach 

is an obstacle on the path towards sustainability. The 

provoked crises are necessary not in an absolute way, 

but for waking up to reality in a more complete sense. 

We mentioned earlier a specific form of coercion that is 

organized in an imperceptible way, arising from a specific way of handling property. But there are many other 

such forms of coercion; in sociology, especially Pierre 

Bourdieu coined the term of ‘structural violence.’ These 

implicit coercions have an insidiously intimidating effect. 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 977

Sensitive and helpless individuals often have no other 

choice but to develop a mental disorder; a widespread 

form of it is depression. The spreading of substances such 

as Prozac is no coincidence. The phenomenon is relevant 

not only psychologically, but shows increasingly also a 

sociological dimension. Subjecting reactive children to 

a coercive regime (for instance by means of Ritalin) is 

not a sign of coming to grips with the real problem, as 

it does not stem from a deep understanding of life in its 

own right. Imagining life can arbitrarily be manipulated 

is an endangering belief. It neglects the distinction between causes (activity in its widest sense) and conditions 

(materiality in its widest sense), obscures the difference 

between curing and healing, and makes autonomy into 

a huge problem.

As a result, the approach to psychic disorder evolved 

in strange ways. While the founding fathers of psychology—for instance Sigmund Freud—sought to heal people 

by helping them to solve their problem, addressing it on 

the psychic level in intelligibility, mainstream thinking 

increasingly acqiesced with possibilities of manipulating 

the symptoms, up to making them vanish as by magic. 

Thanks to neuroscience and biochemistry, pharmacological substances are now extremely effective in doing so. 

Administering these drugs allows the patient to meet the 

usual social duties to a certain point. The trouble is that 

the actual problem is not being solved in this way, but 

only deferred—in fact it very often becomes chronic and 

the patient becomes psychologically dependent on the 

medication. In the end it is not clear any more whether 

such substances are a medicine or a drug, since this 

type of medicine is breeding an addiction. One cannot 

truthfully talk about healing such psychic disorders: 

the symptoms are only faded out of consciousness by 

the cure. The public is rarely being informed about this 

side of the facts, because many articles in the media are 

sponsored by the pharmaceutical industry (for example 

Alain Ehrenberg [1998] gives a detailed account of the 

historical process, including a wealth of pharmacological details). Given the overall structure of the problem, 

and the scant understan­ding of personal identity that the 

mainstream in modern philosophy and science allows, 

it is easy to predict that the ‘inner front’ will become a 

major spanner in social interaction probably relatively 

soon. A population kept biochemically in self-alienation—since the root cause of psychic disequilibration 

remains unsolved, only symptoms are being eliminated 

–, will not be able to solve adequately the fundamental 

questions of existence. The probability of irrational 

reactions, from exaggerated religiosity up to running 

amok, is actively being increased rather than decreased. 

Escaping the created loop requires understanding human 

nature in a complete way—which becomes possible only 

by overcoming the categorial self-limitation of today’s 

mainstream: assumption-based (and hence finally formalmechanical) ways of thinking.

The bottom line of our analysis is: at the very end 

of any of its threads today’s mainstream can not distinguish knowledge from mere belief—indeed, it defines 

knowledge as ‘justified true belief.’ This situation is not 

improved decisively by introducing additional formal 

criteria of corroboration. The available explanations too 

often are mere descriptions—allowing a partial understanding through detailed imagery, but not reaching full 

conceptual clarity on the level of intelligibility.—This 

critique is not meant as an accusation, it only aims at 

revealing the point where mental mechanisms are still 

allowed to operate where a truly organic endeavor would 

be appropriate. Such critiques often express a moralizing 

appeal—which is not helpful. The only reasonable means 

for improvement is insight into the phenomena and their 

interconnections, seeking the level of pure intelligibility. 

The considerations up to here show that the presently 

majoritarian belief structure is (a) not compelling, and (b) 

not fully up to the task; they should thus allow its origin 

and nature to become more clear than usual. As a result, 

the reader might have developed a hunch that, in spite 

of widespread fears, a viable methodological alternative should exist that allows a unified knowledge-based 

society for sustainability to arise.

So much for the diagnosis. But what can a sound 

therapy actually look like?

Solving the Problem on 

Principle

The principle of the new proposal is simple, but 

implementing it is rather demanding. The point is that an 

uncompromised scientific procedure, capable of coping 

with unity and hence strict totality, can be warranted only 

by leaving away all fundamental assumptions—or, in the 

mentioned jargon, ‘listening’ to the overall interconnection of content instead of ‘talking’ into it prematurely. 

All worthwhile philosophy proposes this gesture for its 

beginning: Socrates and Descartes in systematic doubt, 

Kant in suspending judgment, Husserl in epoché, Arendt 

in ‘new life,’ etc. In fact, at the root of all real progress 

one always finds this basic attitude. But it seems awfully difficult to perform and to sustain, even though 

in principle it is easy to stop talking into the problem 

before it can unfold. The act of stopping one’s ‘mental 

radio station,’ for being attentive to an object or idea, 

is always a possible choice, even if not all conditions 

allow to materialize it. While no belief is necessary, beliefs can be accepted under pressure, adapting to given 
978 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

conditions—for instance canonical prejudices in a scientific paradigm, or the way of life in an ideologically 

tinted social environment. For example our Western 

civilization succeeded in installing a type of everyday 

life that continuously distracts from a chosen topic. A 

systematic understanding of how sustained attention can 

be achieved is then helpful.

A sound systematic basis can thus be found by following 

closely the process of querying. We can approach things 

only in a perspective, out of a specific interest. Actively 

sustaining a query has a purifying effect. The deeper we 

reach, the better we can grasp the complementing/polar 

background of what we saw at first. Studying the genesis 

of concepts shows that any conceptual aspect A can in 

the very end be thought only on the ‘mental background’ 

of non-A, the content that is strictly polar to A. This fact 

gave rise to many streams of thought under the title of 

dialectics, because knowing A makes aware of its intrinsic 

conceptual dependency on non-A; hence becoming aware 

of non-A leads to realizing what A really means. Then 

A and non-A together cover totally the universe, under 

one aspect: the queried one (in this example: A). Hegel 

unceasingly draws from this well, and it allows to draw a 

conclusion for systematic attentiveness: upon completely 

exhausting a query perspective conceptually, its perspectivity and universality become fully compatible.

The other side of the coin is that any query leads in the 

very end to a polarized conceptual space, as required for 

really understanding the query’s content. The more intellectual efforts are fathomed, the more examples abound, 

showing why sustained attentiveness to the subject matter 

is crucial. For instance Aristotle, querying the nature of 

change, eventually found ‘form’ vs. ‘matter’; Kant querying cognition finally found ‘perception’ vs. ‘thinking’; 

or Saussure, scrutinizing the primal nature of the sign, 

reached ‘the signifying’ vs. ‘the signified’; etc..

It is of course not evident that such polar structures 

do not merely stem from logocentric mental habits, 

but reflect a real law of nature. The most compelling 

evidence for the second case is available in a branch 

of mathematics called ‘synthetic projective geometry’, 

of which a glimpse was given earlier through the example of the triangle. It is interesting especially since 

Hilbert’s program of axiomatization proved not to be 

realizable that synthetic projective geometry is finally 

the ‘mother’ of all geometries, including the now famous non-Euclidian ones, and that it has been most 

fruitful where it was approached non-axiomatically, as 

by thinkers from Christian von Staudt and Felix Klein 

to Henderson [1998], thus avoiding the self-limitations 

of traditional formalization. The path was to develop 

the elements (point, line, plane) intuitively instead, 

with linearity as the only invariant and infinity not as a 

special case, as in Euclidian geometry, but being strictly 

thought through at every step of developing further the 

geometric structures. Formal approaches to projective 

geometry are of course possible and in fact are the most 

prominent ones in actual application, for instance in 

physics, but the front of heuristic insight has remained 

in the synthetic branch.

Nevertheless, a conceptual polarity, discovered upon 

fully having queried a content, does as such not yet disclose all the implications of that content. For example 

in Aristotle’s query, ‘form’ and ‘matter’ do not disclose 

totally what is actually operative in the ‘form’ aspect and 

what the precise qualities are of the ‘matter’ aspect. But 

we already know the instrumentation for an extended 

interest: to follow up the queried content to its very end. 

Indeed, asking about the nature of the two ‘ends’ of a 

polarized content is of just the same type as asking about 

the nature of that content itself. Hence we can apply the 

acquired polar concepts upon themselves. (for details 

about the systematic development of the concepts, see 

Schaerer [2002], [2003a]). The result is always a set 

of four conjugated categorial concepts, a consequence 

of the query’s content. Every query content defines its 

corresponding four categories. As an example we take 

Aristotle’s query of change, querying first ‘form’ (the 

agency), then ‘matter’ (the respective ‘mirror’ or ‘conceptual background’, indispensable for understanding).—A 

graphic illustration of the systematic structure might be 

helpful (fig. 2).

In this example we consider the perspective of querying processuality, particularly useful for natural science 

and its approach to ‘things’, which should be understood 

in their intrinsic dynamics, because no material thing 

is eternal. Today’s mainstream attempts this too, but is 

limited by its own assumptions; even ‘energy’ and ‘information’ are not suitable notions for a strictly universal 

solution, because neither is a really fundamental concept. 

Energy cannot be primal, because it is force organized 

in spatio-temporal dimensions (the agency is conflated 

with the medium in which it operates, space and time); 

the primal term is force, not energy. Information can’t 

be a primal term either, since its definition—whether 

with Shannon (signal theory) or Boltzmann (structure 

theory)—excludes the information required for distinguishing between meaning and mere noise; the relevant 

term here is pure order. Relying on ‘energy’ and ‘information’ as a conceptual basis sets the stage for a long period 

of deferring crucial points into ‘new’ ideas and research 

areas—but we should be cautious, because not all the 

resulting fragmentation is progress: as we saw, basic errors ‘evolve’ into ever more words, languages....

Systematic attentiveness encompasses, in the result 

of its processual query, all types of structural change in 
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anything that appears as a processual unit, from particles 

in physics to beings, populations, ecosystems, economies, propositions, and mathematical equations. The 

specific qualities of the developed categoriality stem 

from being developed coherently—in full self-referentiality—out of one content; it embodies thus itself the 

essential characteristic of that content. In the example 

of processuality, its sheer dynamism permeates the four 

categories themselves. The two equilibrium conditions 

(disequilibriability and foundatio­nal equilibrium) are 

therefore to be understood in a dynamic sense: every 

‘thing’ is constituted by equilibrating its intrinsic flux: 

energy (particle, substance), water (water­fall), material/mental metabolism (alive being, group, population, 

ecosystem, city, nation), value (economy), conceptual 

content (metaphor, pro­position, mathematical equation), 

etc.

The difference between being inert and alive requires 

additional criteria for the structure: heteronomy vs. autonomy, which can be partial (having organs regulating 

sub-equilibria, which one does not control oneself). The 

existential laws of the inert are a subset of the laws of 

life: also matter arises and disappears, and should finally 

be understood in its complete cycle.

The perspective of processuality is useful for approaching directly the problem of life and death. No 

living being ever fears the law of death, because this law 

is an integral part of its life cycle. But all living beings 

fear the materialized process of dying as soon as it is inflicted by others. Our two equilibration formulations are 

exactly the categories needed for distinguishing dying out 

of self-fulfillment from dying out of external influence 

(in cell biology: apoptosis vs. necrosis; today’s biology 

can’t explain why two types of death exist). The idea 

of equilibrium is useful also for explaining the role of 

sleep (the ‘little brother of death’), which can be noticed 

in empirical approaches, but not fully explained as the 

need for regeneration through higher forms of dynamic 

equilibrium than what is produced by everyday activity. 

The basis of sleep is in the foundatio­nal equilibrium 

of material matter, as it corresponds to what is called 

‘death’ in biology (Schaerer [2002]). Alertness of mind 

in this basic point transmutes ‘death’ into ‘life’—yet this 

awareness must be willed. Material matter is the ultimate 

master, but in its own way.

Problems of hierarchy ‘within’ live units, for instance 

in humans with body-independent thoughts, stop arising 

when acknowledging these as part of the constitutive 

flux: humans are not only their body—and can be understood in all aspects. Nothing is beyond this grasp, and 

immateriality needs no mysterious connotations, since 

the categories disclose the structural identity of material 

and immaterial processes, in inert just as in alive entities: 

while structures in the material realm are the result of 

actual equilibrations, correct propositions and equations 

express conceptually the conditions of the equilibria. In 

the debate, three forms of truth should be distinguished: 

(a) truth on the level of overall order (intrinsic law), as 

the mirroring ‘zero-force’ equilibrium between the two 

involved sides (depending on the chosen query perspective: percept and concept, subject and object, signifier 

and signified, mind and material fact, etc.); this form of 

truth is often referred to as a ‘regulative idea’; and (b) 

truth on the level of appearances as (b1) truth theories, 

whose form is determined by the aspects they emphasize, 

and finally (b2) the adequate mental impression and then 

linguistic expression of a specific fact, which appears in 

the truth-values of propositions. Error, self-deception, 

and lying, result from holding specific types of belief.

Questions remain concerning an ‘inner sense’ that 

must exist, as thinkers have an awareness of what they 

think. Logic could not make sense without this sense 

organ. The materiality of a sense organ is another 

point; understanding existential structures as law-cumforce complexes offers a new key, also example to the 

‘mind-body-problem’ and its prolongations into the 

(un)-freedom of will. Since both the categorial setup of 

a mind and material matter are conceivable as law-cumforce structures, albeit not produced in the same way, 

self-movement is possible to the degree of mastering 

one’s intrinsic material structure (organism, body and 

mind). This is achieved in infant life, internalizing interactions in a long process of automatizing gestures by 

relating mentally to material conditions, until developing 

Figure 2. The structure of selfequilibrated conceptual tetrads.
980 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

deliberation. In interactions between laws-cum-forces, 

force on the mental level (will, choosing motives) and 

on the physical level (moving one’s own and other matter, following chosen motives) does not operate under 

the same condition. The material condition of the mind, 

deliberating its actions, is the categoriality it adopted (by 

having invested will in basic decisions, specific forms 

of order); this structure determines its limit. In physical 

action, the material condition is imposed first by the 

body, whose structure the mind can’t determine, and 

then by all other material conditions of the universe. In 

the free will debate, freedom of thought and of action 

are thus being differentiated (Kane [1998] offers an 

overview). A Laplacian demon is an inadequate frame 

for determinism, because it hinders the clarification of the 

conceptually bridging element between matter and mind. 

Mastering one’s bodily condition—the root of correctly 

understanding materiality—can’t be achieved by means 

of abstract ‘information’ and exterior manipulation, it 

is a concrete conceptualization that must personally be 

worked through; the person is totally involved at the 

crossroads of her subjective motivational choices and 

objective material conditions—as any infant shows in its 

exploratory process, or later any psychotherapy.

Traditional approaches make it particularly difficult 

to fathom whether immaterial beings can exist or not. 

The solution is in realizing that any being can become 

independent of material matter by achieving full selfregulation in the dynamic equilibrium of its mental 

law-cum-force elements. Shaping one’s categoriality in 

this direction—liberating oneself from compulsions—is 

best possible while incarnated, because only this condition allows to act autonomously and test the effect. Spirits 

don’t inhabit the necessary materiality: an individual 

material body. The ultimate activity is ‘listening’ to the 

activity itself of ‘listening’—actively, directly enacting 

self-referentiality. It is no coincidence that this threshold 

is essential in all religions. In systematic attentiveness, 

Science, Art, and Religion cease to look antagonistic, 

revealing parallels instead.

While ‘hard’ sciences learned to manipulate objects of 

the material world, ‘soft’ sciences manipulated the possible presuppositions, producing all sorts of paradigms, 

also for the ‘hard’ sciences. They produce techniques of 

manipulation, but when manipulation is left to its own 

devices, sooner or later it manifests a one-eyedness: it is 

blind to its own foundational doings. A one-eyed vision 

can only be cured by developing self-awareness. Whether 

a civilization has learned to manipulate 10, or 10,000, or 

101000 objects, is irrelevant compared with whether it 

has seen through the idea of manipulating its own mind 

by believing in favored assumptions. Being able to handle 

ideas like things has been a very seductive idea—up to 

becoming a myth whereby control and domination is 

universally possible. But corresponding losses in the 

long run remind of unsolved problems. Assumptions may 

seem plausible at first, but in the course of interacting 

with reality they require to correct the theoretical structure, working off the assumption’s effects, which shape 

thus the respective philosophy or method.

In systematic attentiveness there is no need to assume 

anything. Instead one first clarifies one’s will—i.e., 

what one really wants to know, finding the appropriate 

perspective—unifying thus on principle the point of departure. Two paths are possible: one can choose a query 

perspective that has already been developed, providing 

the corresponding fundamental polar concepts (such as 

‘form vs. matter’, ‘perception vs. thinking,’ ‘the signified 

vs. the signifier,’ etc.), or one can develop oneself the 

content of a query perspective (which takes a long time, 

however, for getting to the categorial bottom—in the 

mentioned examples, this process took Aristotle, Kant, 

or Saussere some decades). Our proposal is to prolong 

the polarizing process, applying the relevant one to itself, 

for discovering the rest of the implied content. This path 

does not face the limit of assumption-based systems, 

because the query content can unravel completely according to its own nature. The given topic is taken as 

it is, applying no arbitrary primal distinction, not even 

‘subject’ vs. ‘object.’ The produced categorial structure 

then is on the level of origins (arché), yielding the ratio 

cognoscendi in the epistemic perspective and the ratio 

essendi in the ontic perspective. In the result, conceptual 

unity and diffe­rentiation can be equilibrated in a precise 

way. This is the condition for systems to be adequate to 

wholenesses.

Whoever is accustomed to thinking in a traditional 

frame of reference will have an aversion against the 

ideas of universality and certainty. This is justified in 

such a framework, because it does indeed not allow 

much of the sort. But that’s not exactly the ideal solution. For breaking loose, it is helpful to realize that the 

mentioned examples—‘form vs. matter,’ ‘perception 

vs. thinking,’ ‘the signified vs. the signifier’—are wellknown concepts that are strictly universally applicable 

(i.e., not only to objects in the traditional sense, but also 

to the act of thinking about them) within the respective 

query perspectivity. This is clearly a form of universality, 

and it is not at all impeded by using these concepts in 

a self-referential way. Systematic attentiveness merely 

generalizes the polarization pattern, introducing no anthropocentrism of any sort.

The question of certainty is situated on another 

level. It is pretty obvious that no amount of observation 

of something can ever exhaust the possible predication. Insofar there seems to be an absolute limit to the 
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 981

certainty of any grasp. But the developed categorial 

tetrads don’t offer any direct predicates (e.g., ‘this thing 

is red’); instead, they are heuristicically relevant (e.g., 

‘check on the color’: useful for guiding the observation, 

phenomenology, etc.). This is clearly a form of certainty, 

albeit of an unexpected sort. The respective phenomenological assessment or hermeneutic investigation still 

needs to be achieved of course, but its categorial guidance 

is secure. Phenomenology and hermeneutics also propose 

to open up to the subject matter, i.e., to ‘listen’ to it instead 

of ‘talking’ into it—which can be understood by anybody 

in any culture and is thus a trans-disciplinary basis—but 

they cannot achieve immanently a clarification of their 

own categoriality. The widespread complaint, whereby 

knowledge can never be totally secure, addresses only 

gaps in what is observable or can be handled as data. 

But in systematic attentiveness, instead of talking about 

such tangible aspects only (attributes and predicates, 

the language of manipulability), one talks about the 

qualities which are relevant in an overall structural way 

(addressing order as such, operating in the language of 

intelligibility). Attempts to grasp the ‘essence’ of things 

are doomed to failure when hoping to reach the goal by 

predica­ting attributes—because these are always contingent (i.e., not ultimately compelling, but determined by 

chance), since doing so depends on the chosen but not 

clarified perspective. In contrast, the approach we propose fosters an uncompromised quality by proposing to 

clarify the nature of perspectivity itself, revealing the law 

of nature that governs it (polar conceptua­lization upon 

fulfillment of content), and proceeding from there. By 

setting out integrally, the cognizing subject can operate 

integrally.—But how does this look in actual practice?

Considering the Mind Itself

For approaching whatever, it is useful to make sure 

first about how to use the instrument: our own mind. 

Some of this could already be read above between the 

lines, but now we can make use of the limitlessness of the 

proposed approach for considering the activity itself of 

querying and understanding, also in how habitual science 

goes about this topic. The resulting new clarity liberates 

the mind on the one hand for an uncompromised selfunderstanding, and on the other hand for applying the 

new approach also in the other scientific domains.

The mind is produced by nature without providing a 

user manual. The social context has its effects in conditioning new life gushing forth that learns how to use its 

mind by encountering malleability and resistance in the 

social structure. Much can be shaped by this context, 

but not strictly everything. We all build up our system 

of categories and representations by experiencing our 

alive bodily organization that is constituted by the same 

‘language’ as the whole rest of the universe. The judging 

instance is always the same: the ‘I,’ whether conceiving 

emotions or what body senses present. Insofar the now 

widespread question ‘how does the world get into our 

head?,’ based on the idea of some ‘reality independent of 

our consciousness,’ displays essentially an estrangement 

from our own potential of integral conceptualization. It 

splits up artificially the continuum of openness and interjects abstractly a sensory system, which is in full reality 

precisely a bridge to otherness, not the imagined abyss. 

The fantasy in alienation is that our skin is the limit for 

understanding physical reality—as if all our own body 

and its sensory system, including the brain for mental 

sensitivity, were not understandable in exactly the same 

way as all other appearances. Of course in ‘summer’ 

of the ‘four seasons of being’ our body is more closely 

linked to us than other material objects, because we 

have to learn how to move it non-conflictually. The real 

question therefore is whether we aim at totality and get 

our foundational concepts right, or in other words our 

categoriality. Only this path can teach us for instance why 

human beings have no body senses for electricity and 

radioactivity: wherever the corresponding phenomena 

happen to arise, they are equilibrated by nature towards 

zero (overall electron-proton-ratio, radioactive decay, 

etc.). If humans decide to accumulate matter in a way 

that produces such phenomena, they are responsible 

themselves. There is no point in feeling superior to nature 

because it has allegedly forgotten something.

A problem might arise for some by talking about 

the ‘I,’ since it is not a palpable object of the material 

world. We mentioned that the finally relevant elements 

for intelligibility (e.g., laws and forces) are never directly 

observable. It is therefore naive to expect the ‘I’—the 

locus of intelligibility becoming relevant—to be a palpable entity. In this question too the distinction between 

(a) an order as such and (b) its manifestation in other 

forms of order is useful. Taking complete self-referentiality as the type of order that can be called the ‘self,’ 

and manifestations of this order as what can be called the 

‘ego,’ solves the problems that object-oriented methods 

produce for themselves. This conceptualization of the self 

corresponds to what was sought in the ‘essence’ of being 

human. Critics of an essentialist perspective should not 

forget that their limit in understanding this perspective 

does not mean that the perspective is obsolete. And critics of the self as principle of complete self-referentiality 

might remember the scrupulous investigation of Søren 

Kierkegaard [1983]. Prolonging his philosophical considerations—of which his theological interpretation is not 

compulsory, as he writes himself—reveals that the type 
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of relation called the ‘self’ is not its manifestations, in 

fact it can’t manifest itself on its own. It is essentially the 

type of organization that distinguishes human structures 

from other ones. The necessary ‘force’ aspect resides 

in the ‘individual desire,’ manifest in an individuality 

(appearance in time: what evolves self-fulfillment of a 

person) and its personality (appearance in space: what 

can be perceived of a person). Without desire there is 

no manifestation of the self; the ‘ego’ is the totality of 

personal manifestations. In our new approach, the important difference between values and ideals as sources 

of motives also becomes more transparently intelligible 

than in traditional systems, where they are usually mixed 

up. Values (e.g., virtues, but also power, ownership) 

draw from the well of collective attractivity, while ideals 

(e.g., beauty, freedom, friendship, harmony, love, peace, 

truth, understanding) stand out by relating to conceptual 

totality in a non-coercive way, and need not represent a 

collectively attractive idea. The difference in animals 

and plants is that their fundamental desire and hence 

agency is located on a collective level, i.e., the specimen cannot autonomously reflect ideals and manifest 

independent individuality. The validity of values and 

ideals can become rationally debatable in a universal 

conceptual framework—as opposed to the usual ones, 

which are indeed limited.

In any approach looking ‘from outside,’ the mental 

act must remain mysterious because it occurs in the 

crossover point of ‘cause’ and ‘condition.’ Categorially 

speaking, agency is polar to its result, the product of 

agency. A direct way of becoming aware of this is in 

considering our own mental act. To feel something or 

think of something does not occur ‘out there,’ since we 

are doing it (in the ‘I’-mode), engrossed in the specific 

content we deal with (‘consciousness of something’). We 

can’t notice this fact during the mental act because we 

are occupied with just this content. From a propositional 

point of view, this fact must logically lead to a belief that 

this duality is inevitable: either think content or think 

the idea of thinking content. This is correct insofar as 

the average person is indeed not aware of something 

and simultaneously of thinking it. Looking only ‘from 

outside’, an abyss—moreover one polarized into the 

categories of subject and object—seems to separate 

pure object and pure act. But sensed ‘from inside’ we 

are all perfectly coherent (even if seldom aware of our 

own coherence, since we don’t focus our attention on it), 

and we can develop our awareness beyond the usual one 

into new areas, precisely because we are ourselves all 

of the mental field. We can focus anew and don’t only 

have results, offering what a propositional point of view 

works with, and what any formal logic requires. One may 

fantasize that qualia (profoundly individual experiences) 

are mere illusions, but if the individual thinker saying 

so had no clear idea of what he is thinking about, he or 

she would not be able to theorize correctly. The key to 

understanding the ‘innermost’ is in noticing that any clear 

thought always shows all of its content, there is never a 

hidden part of an idea—in contrast to materialized life, 

where everything is limited to some perspectivity. On 

the other hand, clarity is not given for free: without our 

directed attention it can’t securely become manifest. 

Without using our will we remain in associations, fantasies, suppositions, whims, a wandering mind, etc.; some 

people never go beyond. The universe features freedom, 

which includes in other words: no material compulsion 

to develop one’s mind.

In systematic attentiveness, there is thus no mystery 

between order and agency in the ‘I’: they converge in the 

‘I,’ or rather in ‘I-ness’ (the self, not the ego on its own). 

We all know this through the fact that one can understand totally only oneself what one is doing in one’s own 

mind (in philosophy this is the ‘other mind problem’), 

while doing so is always an activity, in which one can 

be interested by participating in one’s own intentionality 

instead of letting one’s mind drift off on its own. The self 

constitutes an overall order that allows simultaneously 

full differentiation and full unification. For the individual 

person herself this is not too mysterious, but when thinking of the universe in its overall order, where there is also 

immediacy, most natural scientists will feel uneasy at the 

thought that there might be an ‘I-ness’ within it. Note that 

we do not need any hypothesis of God in systematic attentiveness, but that this approach is compatible with it: 

there is no contradiction. Note also that ‘I-ness’, or God 

(or whatever other name it may be given), does not mean 

that this instance has manufactured the beings like people 

manufacturing gadgets in a factory. This is a relevant 

point for the debate between proponents of Darwinian 

evolution, ‘intelligent design,’ and creationism, in which 

all sides are caught up in ultimate inconsistencies; as 

things are, none can win. Once one gets used to ‘listening’ to one’s own activity itself of ‘listening,’ the whole 

setup can reveal itself as being conceived in a much more 

intelligent way that any of our factories can ever be. It 

embodies the art of perfecting continuously the overall 

order, which can be grasped only in pure intelligibility. 

Not the material product (the evolving beings) is the result, but the overall framework within which the beings 

unravel their evolution; they are simultaneously totally 

free (in choosing their perspectivity) and yet perfectly 

embraced (in the ultimate consequences of their choices). 

A noteworthy point (especially for undogmatic feminists) 

is that in alive ‘I-ness’ the traditionally ‘feminine’ aspect 

of being, sensitivity (‘listening’) and its ‘masculine’ 

aspect (‘acting out’) are united, structured according 
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to the content that is being dealt with. In terms of pure 

intelligibility, the overall order is of the character of ‘Iness’ (or selfness), simultaneously all-encompassing and 

perfectly equilibrated in content. It allows all beings to 

manifest their own paths—they are free to choose even 

their own degeneration. Where hindrance arises, it does 

so only between beings—while the solution in conflicts 

can be found in considering the overall order, ‘I-ness,’ 

selfness, etc. (the name is less important that what is 

being meant by it).

Today’s mainstream operates in a look ‘from outside,’ 

hoping it will warrant objectivity. The stance stems from 

a myth whereby the problem is true predication. The 

obsession is to find truth in propositions. It leaves no 

other choice but to shift crucial questions into forever 

smaller details, while no propositional system can ever 

be absolutely true. The real task is to care patiently about 

strict totality, ‘listening’ to all facts before predicating. 

Otherwise one is only the priest of a confessio, causing 

wars between paradigms, as Thomas Kuhn has shown. 

The principle of religio can’t be fulfilled by seeking a 

‘co-evolving’ relation with neighboring disciplines, or by 

making absolute one’s favorite partial holism (e.g., epistemic holism, ontic holism, quantum holism, semantic 

holism, etc), of which none is completely holistic.

The danger of science on such paths is that it produces 

objectively unnecessary problems. The Necker cube and 

similar graphic arrays are a good example (fig. 3). We can 

either see a cube facing down to the right or one facing 

up to the left, but not both cubes at the same time. Is this 

an illusion, as we are ‘scientifically’ being told? And if it 

is one, will it be dissolved by seeking the ultimate neuronal correlate of consciousness, and detecting it—e.g., 

in the inferior temporal cortex? (For a fairly detailed 

presentation of the current debate, see MITECS: The 

MIT Encyclopedia of the Cognitive Sciences, online on 

http://cognet.mit.edu/MITECS).

We can notice that once we saw both cubes, we can 

decide which one to see, and switch at will. In this way 

we can experience what makes the real difference (since 

the percept as such is the same): the mental representation 

that we produce by our interpretation at will. Offhand we 

can coherently have only one representation at a time. 

Wanting to have both requires quite some effort: mere 

gazing at the lines won’t yield the result, but people who 

are sufficiently trained mentally can remain even in the 

undecided state of mind. What they did is understand 

the facts, thereby creating mentally a representation 

which encompasses both in the mirroring equilibrium. 

The choice at will is crucial—and precisely what the 

cognitive sciences will never be able to find, because it 

is unthinkingly excluded from their categorial structure 

and can thus not appear in their query. Whoever seeks 

mechanisms can of course find only mechanisms.

Other ‘illusions,’ such as the Müller-Lyer lines of 

seemingly different length, or the vase vs. two profiles 

facing each other, can be disentangled in the same way, 

by conceiving the facts between perceiving and thinking 

as they ultimately really are. A seeming difference in 

length, or the choice between vase and facing profiles, 

is a result of interpretation: a conceptual act, but not of 

perception. The crux is our unawareness of automatized 

interpretations which we perform all the time. Usual 

science can’t be helpful in this point, because it only 

measures the automatisms, it can’t detect their erroneous 

conceptual basis. Higher precision in measuring will not 

lead further. The habit even in the most advanced forms 

of psycho-physiology is to not distinguish conceptually 

between the polar aspects of pure perception on the 

one hand, which appears in consciousness without the 

subject’s contribution, and representational inter­pretation 

on the other hand, which appears in consciousness as 

something being modifiable at will within the scope of 

what is recognized and reasonable. The actual facts have 

to do with illusions only to the degree of remaining in 

some categorial confusion. The real problem is too narrow ideas of what categories and concepts are, and a 

widespread unawareness of one’s own mental activity. 

There is an illusion in the belief (and as a result ‘scientific’ 

interpretation) that some perceptions are ‘really’ mere 

illusions. Science would do well to become completely 

scientific; it could do so by reflecting completely its 

categoriality.

Inadequately understood mental automatisms are 

the source of more problems. Take the example of the 

neurosciences, where measuring brain processes led to 

the notion of ‘readiness potentials’: the brain structures 

content which appears later in consciousness. Technically, 

Figure 3. Optical illusions.
984 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

the measurements certainly are correct; there is no need 

to doubt that. But what structures are being measured? 

Where do they originate? Neuroscientists don’t seem to 

observe attentively the infant’s active exploration of material reality, in which it produces countless automatisms 

because it would be impossible for instance to move a 

limb or walk straight if one always were compelled to 

think of the many partial movements. The partial automatisms and their overall organization must be ‘deposited’ 

in some way in the organism (Michael Polanyi has called 

this ‘tacit knowledge’)—which does not mean the material traces are the causal ones. But it is no surprise that 

an intentional call to some order (content) then evokes 

the respective processes, which can be measured in the 

organ of sensitivity for pure order, the brain. For knowing this, no natural science is necessary. It is sufficient to 

realize that order (content) can be operative (‘law-cumforce’) without needing to take a propositional form. 

The possibility of translating pure order into conceptual 

and propositional form doesn’t mean that nature itself is 

operating in that way. Precisely the infant proves this. Of 

course the whole setup can also be depicted through the 

categories of neuroscience, leading to a picture that is 

useful in some respects and will look convincing to those 

who believe in the scientific attitude. At the very end of 

that line there is nevertheless no full certainty, but a mere 

set of beliefs (basic ‘scientific’ assumptions).

I have chosen the example of neuroscience monitoring 

brain activity, and in parallel the geosciences monitoring nature’s activity, for several reasons. One is that 

thinking is the domain we all can experience hands-on, 

discovering how different things look depending on the 

used conceptual spectacles. Another reason is that the 

two fields have more in common than what meets the 

eye. Whether seeking to secure sustainable forms of 

understanding and theorizing, or seeking to secure sustainability for life (or at least survival), one-eyedness is 

not a good option—while the mentioned intrinsic limit in 

content that ought to be mastered is not just an attribute 

of the neurosciences, but a general feature of the instruments for gaining knowledge which have been developed 

in the Western hemisphere. It may seem strange, but the 

cause of the limitation that is inherent in these instruments led also to their success in influencing the rest of 

the planet. Remember our two equilibrium conditions: 

disequilibriability and funda­mental equilibrium. Brute 

power and domination always produces a first ‘success’ 

(because all structures are vulnerable, modifiable), but 

in the long run brute power and domination always is 

compelled to disintegrate, because it does not produce 

sustainable conditions. Once one really knows, there is 

thus no need to attack brute domination; it is sufficient 

to wait until the process ends itself. This is why there is 

no Celestial Intervention when horrors are being perpetrated: no supreme being has any need to interfere when 

humans are stupid enough to aggravate their existence. 

On the contrary, the precise non-intervention of such beings is the only real guarantee for the cognitive process in 

unaware beings to unravel in a non-adulterated way (in a 

superior equilibrium). The framework of the universe is 

their playground until they learn what things are about. 

One point is in understanding the inverting quality of 

birth and death, and the important difference between 

living in self-fulfillment versus living in coercion. In 

scientific activity, the habits of dominance do not have 

the spectacular results of obvious horror, so they can 

go unnoticed until their effects accumulate. Wanting to 

base everything on empirical evidence compels the produced errors to appear on the empirical level too—which 

explains why man-made catastrophes do occur and constitute a systematic danger.

A good way out is to apply the proposed new approach 

onto one’s own psycho-organic being. Try yourself, experience the effect of sustained mental ‘pulling’ instead 

of ‘pushing’; ‘aspiring to something’ and ‘being inspired’ 

are quite appropriate expressions. Self-clarification is 

first physical (relax the body completely: attentively 

accompany all muscles to the ‘zero-force’ overall equilibrium), then psychic (let idiosyncrasies pass away, finding 

‘peace of mind’: attentively accompany all thoughts to 

the silence of overall equilibrium), for then taking care of 

chosen content (allowing it—a question, a mathematical 

equation, etc.—to equilibrate itself according to itself: 

attentively accompany the complex of content until it is 

poised relaxed in itself). You can experience how sustaining your openness—akin to the active curiosity of a 

small child, but now made adult by willful choice—has 

the effect of concentrating your being towards its own 

‘inner roundness,’ transforming even quite heterogeneous 

elements of the past into part of what you always wanted 

to be, but could not manage to integrate. At its best, this 

process unravels in a wordless but fully aware way. It 

allows the relativity of assumptions, beliefs etc. to be perceived; they are not instantly overcome (integrity requires 

complete ‘inner digestion,’ more than the first move), but 

at least they can surface in awareness. Depending on the 

person, her interests and degree of psychic (non)integrity, 

the mental discipline of sticking to a subject matter for its 

own sake may require particular care. Infants can sustain 

openness naturally when they are well-equilibrated, but 

cannot choose to do so at will, while adults often must 

learn the whole process anew. Nevertheless, the practice 

of mental ‘pulling’ instead of ‘pushing’ is the only fully 

honest way of living—and also of doing philosophy or 

science; real progress always draws from this well. I 

merely propose a new systematization.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 985

Earlier, we touched upon the earliest approach to 

totality by seeking enlightenment for actualizing revelation as a source of knowledge. Now theoretically nearly 

everybody rejects revelation as a method or systematic 

foundation, but in actual practice even nowadays a high 

priest’s attitude has not entirely disappeared among 

scientists, especially where they have led fragmentation 

into ‘causative elements’ to the point of these disappearing from the material level, making believe then the 

spiritual level is being addressed; understandably they 

sincerely believe in the foundational assumptions of their 

methodology. The opposite side is in seeking revelation 

by means of allegedly stopping to think—not realizing 

that this path builds up a conceptual barrier through 

extremely intense thinking, of which ‘not thinking’ is 

only an effect of the barrier collapsing. Adepts of the 

respective (often Oriental) techniques tend to cut out 

this fact. The abstractly willful, even arbitrary mental 

activity that led there is being faded out in clinging to 

a myth. The unity of the doer and his result requires no 

such procedure, and can sustainably be experienced by 

becoming aware of categoriality and intentionality. An 

activity of ‘thinking not-thinking’ is indeed not the same 

as ‘willing non-will’ in a sense of ‘listening’ in simple 

openness to reality; the closest version to this is in the 

Zen tradition, in which the categorial conditions are 

not fully clarified, however. A danger of experiencing 

purely mental light is to believe oneself to be an infallible authority, imagining this to be God’s way of being. 

Having had such experiences makes it difficult to grasp 

their relativity. Apart from the basic difficulty of knowing what ‘God’ really means, it is useful to realize that 

structurally all beings are the same as the cosmos insofar 

as they all embody, by dint of their material organization 

as entities, the principle of self-equilibration, without 

which also the universe as a whole can find no dynamic 

stability; the debate around the ‘Anthropic Principle’ 

reflects this issue. Activities such as self-reference, selfregulation, or self-realization, are all ways of actualizing 

that prin­ciple on various levels. The principle itself is not 

its actualizations. Practices leading to enlightenment can 

produce a singularity where the agent and his result are 

one and the same for a while; but this procedure is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for this unity, 

which becomes quietly sustainable (i.e., non-singular, 

instead of pointedly impressive) through the gesture of 

asking, querying, seeking to understand. It culminates in 

‘listening to the activity of listening,’ which opens the 

door to the structure of the mind. Addressing unity in a 

fruitful way is possible only on a non-conflictual path, 

leaving away all personal interventions and desires—also 

those of achieving ‘enlightenment.’ Instead of experiencing that light, finding total transparency is the relevant 

issue; awareness need not be sacrificed. Nothing can 

replace the actual practice of ‘listening to listening,’ 

letting pass away all words and imagery for the sake of 

remaining on track towards unity. Temporality remains 

only through introducing changes, and spatiality when 

entertaining differences. Sustained ‘listening to listening’ 

has a clarifying, purifying, unifying, healing effect. Even 

CEOs are now discovering this dimension. Evidently, 

monastic discipline and deep silence are helpful conditions. One can talk about the experience only afterwards, 

expressing aspects (here too fig. 1 is relevant). Gradually 

understanding the overall interconnections is the type of 

knowledge that is adequate to complete reality.

The advantage of the proposed tetradic categorization 

shows especially in borderline cases of the mainstream 

view—for example at the edge of life, in the way 

infants proceed into what usually is called life, and 

elderly people into what usually is called death. They 

do not do so in an object-oriented way, obeying the 

current scientific paradigm, but in a way that is rooted 

in the whole. Intrauterine and neonate life sets out in 

holistic sensations, increasingly attributing meaning to 

gestures (forms of ordered movement, mental as well 

as material), later associating the regularity of sounds 

with the regularity of gestures (this is called ‘language 

acquisition’). Observe infants in how they move: they 

set out from their inner equilibrium, moving their feet 

and hands out of this sensation—at first not at all in the 

aim of going somewhere, but simply in experiencing and 

experimenting their potential of self-dis-equilibration 

and re-equilibration. The more an empirical scientific approach of these phenomena interconnects the details, the 

more it must acknowledge that infants develop meaning from the whole to the parts (see e.g., Stern [1992], 

Dornes [2001]), not as widely expected the other way 

around. At the other end, when old age gradually merges 

into the process of dying—we mentioned the crucial 

diffence between dying out of self-fulfillment and dying 

as an effect of alien intervention—, the inverse process 

can be observed: the less the process is disturbed, the 

more the affected psyche refers to the whole in gently 

shifting overall equilibria, letting go of particularistic 

object orientations (e.g., Kübler-Ross [1997], Albery et 

al. [1993]). Such a death can be totally peaceful—which 

is more probable when having led a tranquil life. At 

both ends of earthly life, the said holistic features can 

be observed empirically. This is not yet an explanation 

for their way of arising. But the proposed conceptualization offers that for the whole cycle of ‘four seasons of 

being,’ through precise ways of grasping perspectives 

of the overall order. It can be helpful for those in the 

humanities who feel they are in need of new prospects 

(Schaerer [2004]).
986 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

Applying the Proposed New 

Approach in General

The new unified approach, being fed by the intrinsic 

overall order, complements is a precise way the traditional ones, which are fed by their object-orientation (fig. 

4). It operates out of fulfilled integrity: by going through 

all of oneself one can interact adequately with ever more 

forms of otherness—an aspect that is often debated under 

the title of ‘alterity.’ One can indeed grasp in otherness 

only what one has clarified—or at least become aware 

of—in oneself.

An ever more profound self-awareness is helpful for 

grasping the scientific process as a whole of aspects that 

interrelate in a specific way: the empirical side yields 

data for knowing concretely what we talk about, while 

the rational side yields universal concepts for knowing 

how to talk reasonably about data. Only both together 

allow science to function organically—as much in the 

single mind as on the institutional level.

In the habitual paradigm, one hopes to be able to 

reconstruct the whole through a synthesis of analyzed 

‘elements.’ But regardless of how detailed a breakdown 

into ‘elements’ is, the thing as such can never be understood (as for example Kant demonstrates); then the 

considerations can never leave completely the mechanistic realm.

The practical applicability of the new approach 

implies first a translation process of the usual view for 

the phenomena into a view through the new categories. 

This translation effort is rewarded by discovering a new 

transparency in the structural parallels across the fields 

and disciplines, and by achieving finally also a higher 

overall efficiency of the research process.

Obviously not everybody is immediately interested 

in venturing into such a new field and form of action, 

even though there are many advantages in doing so. 

For those who choose this path, it is therefore useful to 

pursue simultaneously two tracks: a pragmatic interaction 

with present debates on the tactical level, while regularly 

feeding it by the activity of ‘listening’ into the overall 

order as the foundation on the strategic level. The approach proposed here is not adequate for manipulatory 

intentions, as the now usual forms of science are. It is no 

‘mental instant coffee’, but requires patient care: it needs 

to be sustained. In fact, the sustained activity of ‘listening’ 

is what in classical antiquity was called hypokeimenon: 

the subjacent basis which allows (material or mental) 

‘things’ to become what they finally are; the polarizing 

arrows in figure 2 can indeed easily imply, in mental 

practice, the effort of a few decades (as documented by 

many examples in the history of philosophy).

The sciences implied in the considerations of this 

symposium on monitoring are rooted at their one end in 

natural science, and at the other end in policy making 

and hence in the social sciences and humanities. The 

symposium emphasized the triad of ‘ecological, economic, and social’ points of relevance. This intention 

can be rounded off by considering that all beings are a 

living span between their material organization and their 

way of handling their own overall order. So three basic 

conceptual aspects are relevant for their wholeness: their 

material body, their intrinsic order (law-plus-force) that 

organizes it, and the oscillating mediating ‘something’ 

that produces the individual movements, which actualizes the principle of self-equilibration. The difference 

between inert structures and alive ones is only that first 

are fully determined by exterior influences; what the 

self-modifications are attributed to—a genome, an entelecheia etc.—is another question (for details see Schaerer 

[2002]). For coordinating conceptualizations, three fields 

of contemporanean science are conceptually critical and 

can be particularly fruitful when newly being based on 

an uncompromised way of ‘theoretical theorizing’:

theoretical physics (understanding matter),

theoretical biology (individual mediation),

theoretical economics/social science/humanities 

(making explicit togetherness).

For the time being, a clash of ideas is still going 

on—beyond the clash of scientific cultures (C.P. Snow) 

and the clash of civilizations (Sam Huntington). It is 

an ideological war between minds seeking domination 

and minds seeking understanding. Maybe we can offer 

•

•

•

Figure 4. The scientific endeavor 

as a coherent organic wholeness 

capable of housing conceptually 

all life.
USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006. 987

a bridge. For the moment it is still easy to seduce many 

people with what they can ‘do,’ not with what they can 

understand. Problems like sustainability are like catalysts 

in the process of reconsidering.

Of all natural sciences, the geosciences are especially 

interesting (and relevant in questions of sustainability), 

because they need to integrate methodologically the full 

scope between the mineral, vegetative, animated, mental 

and social levels of existence—the more seamlessly, 

the better. In all of its realms, ‘systematic attentiveness’ 

offers significant conceptual advances. On the level of 

pure natural science (physics and chemistry), an approach 

to the nature of matter is possible that can encompass 

life as a principle. Matter reveals itself as never being 

causal, but the indispensable condition for all processes. 

Grasping this difference—which can’t become clear in 

habitual approaches (think e.g., of the deductive-nomological schema of causal explanation)—can liberate 

science from many burdens. In physical geography, the 

pragmatic categories of ‘accumulator,’ ‘regulator’ and 

‘process’ can be reduced to the principle of ‘process’, 

thus simplifying the terminology. In climate studies, 

the constitutive notions of ‘energy’ and ‘information’ 

can be purified towards their real meaning. Both are 

not suitable for a strictly integrative view, since neither 

is a really fundamental concept. In the lithosphere the 

edaphon with its interlacing inert and alive structures can 

be approached terminologically in a unified way, avoiding reductionist paths; then for example ion exchanges, 

chemical weathering, and a mykorrhiza can be contained 

in a homogenous conceptual grasp. In geoecology, the 

existence of homogenous landscape units can be approached through the idea that such units arise where 

specific parameters warrant a dynamic equilibrium; this 

avoids anthropocentrically ‘intuitive’ definitions (e.g., 

via watersheds), since the parameters can objectively 

be studied until finding a homeostatic overall order. In 

biogeography, the hitherto mysterious link between the 

mineral and biotic realms can be approached through 

the principle of organs regulating sub-equilibria of 

the overall equilibrium—without the fallacies of the 

physicalistic or geneticist sort, where order and agency 

can never become ultimately clear, with the result that 

it was superseded by a belief whereby nature works in 

the same dominative way as humans try to justify for 

their own doings. How come a blade of grass can grow 

gently through concrete, where we must use a pneumatic 

drill? In human geography, the question of autonomy 

and heteronomy, freedom and constraint, can be solved 

in a non-conflictual way upon having unmasked the 

conflictual ways of hitherto usual science and intervention. Traditional riddles such as the ‘mind-body-problem,’ 

personal identity, or the freedom and unfreedom of will, 

become transparent in the proposed categoriality. In the 

structure of sociality, the efficiency of decentralized intelligence can become clear—as opposed to the hitherto 

favored model of centralized processing and command, 

whose apparatus entails unnecessary burdens. The best 

oil in the social gearbox is the autonomous capacity to 

think things fully through; no wonder it bothers those 

who wish to free-ride the social engine for their own 

ends. Finally, on the level of the purely theoretical geosciences, an overall categorial order can be found in which 

many old inconsistencies and incompatibilities can be 

leveled out. The proposed approach allows to address 

all types of entities, processes, and issues, on all scales, 

in a conceptually homogenous way.

Closing Remarks

The essential element of the presented proposal is the 

gesture of ‘listening’ to the problem at stake, instead of 

‘talking’ into it, mentally ‘pulling’ instead of ‘pushing,’ 

‘sucking’ instead of ‘pressing,’ i.e., seeking to understand 

fully instead of wanting to dominate. As has been shown, 

neglecting this ideal inevitably produces a fundamentally 

conflictual tendency already on the level of theorizing. 

In our era, blinded by short-term success of techniques, 

this neglect became habitual. The result is a lack of longterm certainty, or in other words of sustainability. This 

systematic drawback has its root in unawareness of one’s 

own mental life and can be overcome only by becoming 

aware of this fact. In spite of its deep reach, the proposal 

of fundamental ‘listening’ instead of ‘talking’ can be 

understood by anybody, in whatever culture.

When pursued philosophically on the categorial level, 

this basic gesture allows a type of conceptualization 

that does not entail the cognitive self-limitations which 

characterize today’s mainstream methods. The proposed 

approach requires, however, a particular dedication to 

the questions at stake. Pressures of whatever kind—conceptual (for instance paradigmatically, as in the ‘science 

wars’), political, economic, etc.—as they often are being applied to the research process, are not conducive 

to circumspection; overall efficiency can’t be achieved 

by pressure. Such pressures do not arise accidentally, 

however, they rather are a result of society struggling 

with malice while many judgments are muddled up by 

psychological projections (that darned phenomenon 

of not seeing the beam in one’s own eye, but only the 

straw in other’s). There is much need for more (self)-

transparency—and ‘listening’ instead of ‘talking’ is the 

best method for that because it covers as much ‘inner’ 

as ‘outer’ reality, in a complete way. It is helpful also for 

discovering the primal source of malice: conditioning 
988 USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-42CD. 2006.

influences in infancy and childhood, which reach much 

more deeply than many would acknowledge, and yet are 

fully man-made.

A presence or absence of ‘listening’ instead of ‘talking’ as the socially effective basic gesture is thus not 

only of vague academic interest, because its material 

consequences reach extremely far. Think for instance of 

the ‘youth bulge’—the high birth rates in certain areas of 

our planet, where simultaneously the young generation 

faces poor prospects and develops corresponding revolutionary desires, reproducing the basically conflictual 

gesture that Western influence had imposed, leading 

them to where they are now. This is now being discussed 

among strategists (see for example www.cia.gov/nic/

speeches_demochange.html, www.populationaction.

org, or www.wilsoncenter.org, www2.ucsc.edu/cgirs). 

Also in this explosive problem area, the usual intellectual response is only blown-up tactics, it doesn’t stem 

from a truly strategic overview. Discussing the problems 

in terms of subjectivity and fighting for one’s ‘values’ 

and ‘interests’ will not solve them. In actual policies, 

contraception, professional training and job creation 

is not enough, because such measures miss the origin 

of the vicious circle, they merely shift the problems 

into new areas. And wanting to control violence by the 

type of counter-violence that is organized by the state, 

as has become habitual since Max Webers view of the 

state, will never lead to the intended social order, but to 

always new forms of conflict flaring up. Hiding the crux 

in structural violence—for instance by instrumentalizing 

jurisprudence—is of no help. Under the practical conditions produced by superficial analyses, for example the 

gesture of wanting to grab resources under the impression 

of being in need is understandable—which gives rise to 

the problems of sustainability.

A sustainable solution requires the effort of thinking 

through the overall interconnection of facts in a strictly 

complete and totally secure way—including therefore 

the categorial system through which the facts are being interpreted. To mention only the problems on the 

economic level: the questions raised by thinkers such 

as Marx, Veblen, Myrdal, or Georgescu-Roegen, can’t 

be solved by putting them aside for long enough, as is 

believed in the lore of mainstream (neoclassical) economics. For being able to evolve in constructive ways, the 

young generations need fundamentally true prospects, 

a materially and intellectually open horizon. The now 

still habitual approaches, methods, and theories can’t 

warrant this. But this is not the end of the story: limits 

of understanding are not our fate, they are always only 

provisional and merely reflect the fundamental beliefs of 

the day. Doubting dogmas and ‘listening’ to the problem 

at stake, instead of ‘talking’ into it, is always a possible 

option.

Even Zbigniev Brzezinsky, who has an excellent grasp 

of the international situation and certainly is not a friend 

of demure attitudes, is gradually realizing the problem to 

some extent—not generally in the role of methodological work, but pragmatically in the problem’s practical 

impact, for instance in losses of credibility. In his latest 

book [2004], Brzezinsky explicitly cautions the United 

States to seek global leadership instead of global domination. The outlined methodological considerations allow 

to know in a secure way that any limit in achieving this 

ideal will always be determined by limits in the sincere 

desire of understanding all the implied facts and interconnections in a complete way—beyond still widespread 

basic beliefs—and by taking materially a position that 

enslaves others in whatever way. The ideal of not limiting 

each other’s liberties has always been a powerful part of 

the American self-understanding, but—as a few massive 

aberrations have been revealing lately—materializing it 

requires some better thinking than the average optimism 

can warrant.

But it is necessary to realize that good thinking outside 

the box requires at least as much precision and discipline as the rigor of which especially so-called ‘hard’ 

sciences are proud—the strictness is merely on another 

level. Their feeling is nevertheless not completely off 

track since the ‘soft’ sciences neglected the foundation 

of their own way of thinking. In contrast, the categorial 

instrumentation proposed here allows to cover seamlessly 

both sides. Making use of it, investigating and monitoring 

can cover also the hithero neglected aspects of its objects 

in the traditional sense, as they can then be approached 

uncompromisingly in their processual nature and specific degree of autonomy. The method for doing so is to 

think in a secure way from totality towards its aspects, 

encompassing also the principle of categoriality, i.e., the 

concep­tual instrumentation through which any subject 

matter (for instance ‘objects’) is being dealt with, including thus the activity of thinking about them. This must 

seem impossible in today’s mainstream of philosophy, 

philosophy of science, and science; the present essay is 

an attempt to outline an unexpected feasibility—thus 

hopefully encouraging those who always wanted to go 

beyond the alleged impossibilities, but could not get 

beyond wondering how to do so.

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991

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