NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

National-Scale Wind Resource 

Assessment for Power Generation

Modern Approaches to Support 

the Development of a Nation’s 

Wind Energy Potential

E. Ian Baring-Gould

Asia Clean Energy Forum 2013

June 28, 2013

Manila, Philippines

NREL/PR-7A20-59115

Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy 
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

National-Scale Wind Resource 

Assessment for Power Generation

Modern Approaches to Support 

the Development of a Nation’s 

Wind Energy Potential

E. Ian Baring-Gould

Asia Clean Energy Forum 2013

June 28, 2013

Manila, Philippines

NREL/PR-7A20-59115

Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy 
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Energy Development Conundrum

RISK matters:

10929

16713

Adam

NREL 10929

NREL 16713

Energy development is a balance of resource availability, cost, impact assessment, 

demand, and a heavy dose of politics.

The energy sector is risk averse and 

dependent on limited capital markets with a 

low risk tolerance.

Especially since RE technologies already are 

associated with a risk premium.

• Structural engineering

• Grid integration.

Photo by Warren Gretz, NREL 10929

Photo from Green Mountain Power, NREL 16713

• Power production

2
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Resource Assessment is Driven by the Question

Boy Scout with a wet finger

Question: Will it be windy on my hike today?

Anemometer

A Boy Scout might work for this scenario.

What is at risk? An uncomfortable hike

Which instrument is better?

VS. 

RESULT: WINDY +/- ? m/s RESULT: 8 m/s +/- 0.1 m/s

3
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Resource Assessment is Driven by the Question

Boy Scout with a wet finger

Question: How windy will it be at my wind farm?

Anemometer

Anemometer is the way to go with so much at stake!

What is at risk? Champagne or bankruptcy

Which instrument is better?

VS.

RESULT: WINDY +/- ? m/s RESULT: 8 m/s +/- 0.1 m/s

4
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Cost and Risk Trade-Off

Risk Pyramid

Cost

Uncertainty

Wind Maps and Virtual Met Masts

Extrapolated Measurements

?

Long-Term and Hub-Height 

Measurements

5
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Philippines Wind Resource Assessment

The NREL 2001 study estimated a 70-GW wind development 

potential for the Philippines, but many constraints have limited 

development. 

6
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Wind Resource Assessment Considerations

Important wind characteristics:

• Wind shear, spatial and temporal 

variations, terrain influences

• Seasonal and diurnal wind patterns

• Wind direction and speed frequencies

• Turbulence and complex terrain 

influences

• Extreme weather events.

7

Best areas 6.5-7 m/s

Capacity factors 30%-

35% Best areas 7-7.5 m/s

Capacity factors 35%-

40% Best areas 7.5-8.2 m/s

Capacity factors 40%-

45%

New wind resource tools:

• Greatly improved wind modeling 

• Computational-based worldwide wind data sets

• Validation of regional modeled wind speeds with tower-based 

measurement sites 

• Better understanding of wind changes with height

• For some locations, virtual measurement can be obtained, which 

can help spur wind development.
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

With the new and expanded availability of data, increasing computational power, 

and better prediction models, the ability to conduct national wind assessments 

has increased almost exponentially.

This allows developers and policy makers to better assess potential.

1987 2000

High-Resolution Wind Mapping

2010

20-km resolution

30-m height

No ground cover

Minimal terrain data

1-km resolution

50-m height

Basic ground cover

Good terrain data

200-m resolution

Multiple heights (80 m)

Good ground cover

Excellent terrain data

North Dakota’s “Changing” Wind

8
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Changes in Turbine Technology

Rapidly changing turbine technology focused on taller 

turbine towers and larger turbine rotors (longer blades) is 

changing the landscape of wind development.

9
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Changes in Viable Wind Deployment

Area of the United States 

with viable (30% capacity 

factor) wind development

Class II 

turbine, 77-m 

rotor on an 

80-m tower

10
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Changes in Viable Wind Deployment

Area of the United States 

with viable (30% capacity 

factor) wind development

Class II 

turbine, 77-m 

rotor on an 

80-m tower

Class III 

turbine, 100-m 

rotor on a 110-

m tower

11
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Changes in Viable Wind Deployment

Area of the United States 

with viable (30% capacity 

factor) wind development

Class II 

turbine, 77-m 

rotor on an 

80-m tower

Class III 

turbine, 100-m 

rotor on a 110-

m tower Class III turbine, 117-m rotor on a 140-m tower

12
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Resource Assessment to Development

Although static national wind maps can help identify development 

potential, they have not provided a clear path to developed projects.

Photo by Warren Gretz, NREL 10089

NREL 15661

Photo by Richard Ker, NREL 15661

• Basic maps cannot be substituted for 

measurement data.

• Implementation of simple assessment 

tools (Geospatial Toolkit) allows viable 

comparisons for policy decisions.

• National wind resource measurement 

programs are needed to provide data 

to support project assessment.

• Modern meso-scale computational 

models using validated data can allow 

expanded development by making 

initial resource assessments available 

to a wide pool of potential developers 

at lower cost (i.e., better risk/return).

Photo by Andrew Clifton, NREL 24386

Photo by Warren Gretz, NREL 10929

Photo by Warren Gretz, NREL 11209

13
 Innovation for Our Energy Future

Updated Philippines Wind Resource Assessment

Given the changes in resource modeling 

and turbine technology over the past 

decade, what will a new national 

assessment look like?

It would include more economically 

viable wind potential closer to loads 

and infrastructure. 

But will this be enough to expand wind 

development in the Philippines?

More efforts will likely be needed to reduce the risks associated with largescale wind development on behalf of regulators, utility providers, developers, 

and financers.

Maybe, but it’s back to an assessment 

of the risk/reward premium.

14
NREL is a national laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

E. Ian Baring-Gould

Technology Deployment Manager

National Wind Technology Center

303-384-7021

Ian.baring-gould@nrel.gov

Photo by David Parsons, NREL 07389