Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Session Title

Speaker Information

 

Wind Technologies &

Evolving Opportunities

Robi Robichaud

Senior Engineer 

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

ChampionsGate, Florida

July 23, 2014

NREL/PR-5000-62435
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

• National Wind Technology Center – Research

• Blades

• Generators

• Wind resource.

• Wind Market Update

• Recession impacts

• PTC

• RPS.

• Wind Technology Overview 

• Larger rotors

• Taller towers.

• Wind Resource

• Improved wind maps & assessment.

Opportunities for Wind Technology 

3

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25861
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

National Renewable Energy Laboratory 

National Wind Technology Center

Research & Development

4

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25861
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

National Renewable Energy 

Laboratory Campus

High-Performance Buildings 

at the National Renewable 

Energy Laboratory

5

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25861

National Renewable 

Energy Laboratory

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 21794
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

National Wind Technology Center Overview

• Turbine testing since 1977

• Leader in design and analysis codes

• Pioneers in component testing

• Unique test facilities

• Blade testing

• Dynamometer

• CART turbines

• Modern utility-scale turbines

• Approx. 150 staff on-site

• Budget approx. $35M

• Many CRADAs with industry

• Leadership roles for international 

standards.

R&D goals:

• Improve windplant power production

• Reduce windplant capital cost

• Improve windplant reliability and lower O&M cost

• Eliminate barriers to large-scale deployment.

6

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25904
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

• 2.5-MW dynamometer

– Commissioned 1999

– Steady use by industry

– Used in R&D activities

– Key facility for Gearbox 

Reliability Collaborative

– Basic shaft load capability 

added in FY2010.

• Dynamometer upgrade

– $10M Recovery Act funding

– New 5-MW driveline

– Robust shaft-loading system

– Commissioned in 2013.

Drivetrain Testing

7

Photo by Mark McDade, NREL 24472

Photo by Rob Wallen, NREL 17398
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

• Power performance and 

reliability influences are 

reduced in arrays.

• Understanding inflow / array 

interaction is key.

• Computational models, 

control paradigms, and 

hardware development will 

be required.

• A detailed understanding of 

the following is required:

– Rotor wake interactions

– PBL characteristics

– Inflow / wind farm interaction

– Complex terrain effects.

Horns Rev

Windplant Aerodynamics Research

8

Copyright holder: Vatatenfall

Title: Horns Rev 1 Wind Farm

Photographer Christian Steniness. Photo was takend 12th fo February 2008 13:00 o’clock
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Energy Market Trends

9

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25861
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Worldwide Renewable Energy Capacity Update

10

Source: RENS21. 2104. Renewables 2014 Global Status Report

http://www.ren21.net/Portals/0/documents/Resources/GSR/2014/GSR2014_full%20report_low%20res.pdf
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Worldwide Wind Market Update

• Led by decline in U.S. market, global additions 20% lower in 2013

• United States remains a distant second to China in cumulative capacity

The U.S. Fell to 6th Place in Annual Wind Power 

Capacity Additions

Annual Capacity

(2013, MW)

Cumulative Capacity

(end of 2013, MW)

China 16,088 China 91,460

Germany 3,237 United States 61,110

India 1,987 Germany 34,468

United Kingdom 1,833 Spain 22,637

Canada 1,599 India 20,589

United States 1,087 United Kingdom 10,946

Brazil 948 Italy 8,448

Poland 894 France 8,128

Sweden 724 Canada 7,813

Romania 695 Denmark 4,747

Rest of World 7,045 Rest of World 51,031

TOTAL 36,137 TOTAL 321,377

Source: Navigant; AWEA project database for U.S. capacity

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind as a Percentage of Electricity Consumption

Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind power capacity 

at the end of 2013

United States Lagging Other Countries in Wind as a 

Percentage of Electricity Consumption

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

• 13.1 GW of wind added in 2012, more than 90% higher than 2011 

• $25 billion invested in wind power project additions

• Cumulative wind power capacity up by 28%, bringing total to 60 GW

Wind Power Additions Hit a New Record in 2006

PTC-Driven Results

Source: Annual Report on U.S. Wind Power Installation, Costs, and Performance Trends: 2006. (Wiser, R.; Bolinger, M. (2007). Annual Report on U.S. 

Wind Power Installation, Cost, and Performance Trends: 2006. 24 pp.; NREL Report No. TP-500-41435; DOE/GO-102007-2433

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

 Annual U.S. Capacity (left scale)

 Cumulative U.S. Capacity (right scale)

Cumulative Capacity (GW)

Annual Capacity (GW)

• Capacity additions in 2013 were just 8% of 2012 additions

• $1.8 billion invested in wind power project additions

• Cumulative wind capacity up by less than 2%, bringing total to 61 GW

Wind Power Additions: New Record in 2012

Due to Expiring PTC-Driven Results; 2013 Slowdown

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

2006

Wind Power Additions Stalled in 2013, with Only 1,087 MW 

of New Capacity Added

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

U.S. Wind Power Capacity Growth

Source: http://awea.files.cmsplus.com/FileDownloads/pdfs/AWEA%204Q2013%20Wind%20Energy%20Industry%20Market%20Report_Public%20Version.pdf

AWEA U.S. Wind Industry - Fourth Quarter 2013 Market Report; January 30, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

16

Wind Power Capacity Completions by Quarter

Source: http://awea.files.cms-plus.com/FileDownloads/pdfs/1Q2014%20AWEA%20Public%20Report.pdf 

AWEA U.S. Wind Industry - First Quarter 2014 Market Report; April 29, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Power Capacity under Construction

Source: http://awea.files.cms-plus.com/FileDownloads/pdfs/1Q2014%20AWEA%20Public%20Report.pdf 

AWEA U.S. Wind Industry - First Quarter 2014 Market Report; April 29, 2014

17
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Energy Price & Cost Trends

18

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25861
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Turbine Prices Remained Well Below 

the Levels Seen Several Years Ago

• Recent turbine orders in the range of $900-1,300/kW, with more-favorable terms for buyers 

and improved technology

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Lower Turbine Pricing Reflected in 

Reported Total Project Costs

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

19821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013

Installed Project Cost (2013 $/kW)

Commercial Operation Date

 Individual Project Cost (708 projects totaling 50,210 MW)

 Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost

• Limited sample for 2013 had average cost of $1,630/kW

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

Jan-96Jan-97Jan-98Jan-99Jan-00Jan-01Jan-02Jan-03Jan-04Jan-05Jan-06Jan-07Jan-08Jan-09Jan-10Jan-11Jan-12Jan-13Jan-14

PPA Execution Date

 Interior (16,840 MW, 184 contracts)

 West (6,885 MW, 69 contracts)

 Great Lakes (2,364 MW, 33 contracts)

 Northeast (855 MW, 20 contracts)

 Southeast (268 MW, 6 contracts)

Levelized PPA Price (2013 $/MWh)

75 MW

150 MW

50 MW

Lower Costs and Better Capacity Factors

Enable Aggressive Recent PPA Pricing

Wind Turbine Cost Trends

• Lowest prices we have ever seen in the U.S. market, despite the trend toward lowerquality wind resource sites in general

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Incentives – Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

Source: Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (funded by the U.S. Department of Energy) . Accessed 7/10/2014 

22

“The Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency (DSIRE) is a comprehensive source of information on state, local, utility, and federal 

incentives and policies that promote renewable energy and energy efficiency. Established in 1995 and funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, DSIRE is an 

ongoing project of the N.C. Solar Center and the Interstate Renewable Energy Council.”
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

A Smoother Look at the Time Trend Shows 

Steep Recent Pricing Decline; 

Especially Low Pricing in Interior Region

23

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

$100

1996-99

10

553

2000-01

17

1,249

2002-03

24

1,382

2004-05

30

2,190

2006

30

2,311

2007

26

1,781

2008

39

3,465

2009

48

4,040

2010

41

4,197

2011

34

3,533

2012

9

721

2013

10

1,788

Average Levelized PPA Price (Real 2013 $/MWh)

 Nationwide Interior

 Great Lakes West

 Northeast

PPA Year:

Contracts:

MW:

• Lowest prices we have ever seen in the U.S. market, despite the trend 

toward lower-quality wind resource sites in general

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Prices (Especially in Interior, w/ PTC) Are Hard to 

Beat: Toward the Lower End of Average Wholesale 

Electric Prices in 2013

24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2003

9

570

2004

13

547

2005

17

1,643

2006

30

2,311

2007

26

1,781

2008

39

3,465

2009

48

4,040

2010

41

4,197

2011

34

3,533

2012

9

721

2013

10

1,788

2013 $/MWh

 Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (by calendar year)

 Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price (by year of PPA execution)

Wind project sample includes projects 

with PPAs signed from 2003-2013

PPA year:

Contracts:

MW:

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.45

$0.50

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Cost of Competing Electricit ($/kWh)

Wind Speed (m/s)

 

Cost of Competing Electricity 

vs. Wind Speed Curve

Is Wind Economic? It Depends

Factors to shift curve down-left:

•Taller tower

•Low wind speed turbine

•Utility-scale vs. distributed turbine

•PTC (production tax credit) or other 

incentives

Factors that shift curve up-right:

•Increased financing costs

•Increased interconnection costs

•Transmission constraints

•Turbine availability
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Prices (w/ PTC) Are Hard to Beat: 

Below the Current & Expected Future Cost 

of Burning Fuel in Natural Gas Plants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028202920302031203220332034203520362037203820392040

 Range of AEO14 gas price projections

 AEO14 reference case gas price projection

 Wind 2011 PPA execution (3,533 MW, 34 contracts)

 Wind 2012 PPA execution (721 MW, 9 contracts)

 Wind 2013 PPA execution (1,788 MW, 10 contracts)

2013 $/MWh

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

27

 Wind Capacity by State

At end of 2012:

• Texas > 2 X wind 

capacity of any 

other state

• 22 states had 

>500 MW of 

capacity 

15 states > 1 GW, 

10 states > 2 GW

• 2 states >20% of 

total in-state 

generation from 

wind 

• 9 states > 10%,

• 17 states > 5%

Source: http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/pdfs/workshops/2013_summit/wiser.pdf

2012 Wind Technologies Market Report Summary; WPA All-States Summit; May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

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Economies of Scale – Project Size Matters

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

≤5 MW

116 MW

55 projects

5-20 MW

341 MW

25 projects

20-50 MW

1,103 MW

31 projects

50-100 MW

2,102 MW

27 projects

100-200 MW

6,101 MW

45 projects

>200 MW

5,721 MW

22 projects

Installed Project Cost (2012 $/kW)

 Capacity-Weighted Average Project Cost

 Individual Project Cost

Sample includes projects built in 2011 and 2012

Source: http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/pdfs/workshops/2013_summit/wiser.pdf

2012 Wind Technologies Market Report Summary; WPA All-States Summit; May 8, 2014

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Domestic Wind-Related Manufacturing 

More than 160 

manufacturing 

plants capable 

of producing 

12 GW/yr

Source: http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/pdfs/workshops/2013_summit/wiser.pdf

2012 Wind Technologies Market Report Summary; WPA All-States Summit; May 8, 2014

29
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

1,000 MW of New Wind Power in Colorado

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Turbine Technology Improvements

31

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25861
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

 Derived from K.E. = 1⁄2 mv2

 P = A * ρ * V3 /2 

o P = Power of the wind [Watts]

o A = Windswept area of rotor (blades) = πD/4 = πr2 [ m2]

o ρ = Density of the air [kg/m3 ] (at sea level at 15°C)

o V = Velocity of the wind [m/s]

Wind energy is proportional to velocity cubed (V3):

– 25% higher wind speed ≈ 2 times the power available

–If wind speed is doubled, power increases by a factor of 8 (23 = 8)! 

Small differences in average speed cause 

big differences in energy production!

Power in Wind Equation

Wind energy is kinetic energy − mass and momentum

D

32
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Turbine – Sized to Economic Project Goals

Bergey

Excel 10 kW 

~ 1 home 

Vestas V47

600 kW

~ 200 homes 

GE 1.5sle

1.5 MW

~ 500 homes 

Vestas V-90

3 MW

~ 1,000 homes 

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Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Performance Is Impacted by the Physical Characteristics 

of the Turbine Fleet, Including Larger-Rotor Machines

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1998-99 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Commercial Operation Year

 Average Nameplate Capacity (left scale)

 Average Rotor Diameter (right scale)

 Average Tower Height (right scale)

MW

Meters

Wind Turbine Performance Trends

• Two periods of rapid scaling: 1998-2006 and 2009-present

• 2006-2008 mostly stagnant as OEMs focused on meeting demand

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

34
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

And the Increased Use of Lower Wind Speed Turbines, Now 

Also Often Used in Higher Wind Speed Sites (IEC Class)

Wind Turbine Performance Trends

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas, NV. May 8, 2014

35
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

This power curve graph illustrates 

the GE 1.6-MW with 82.5-m rotor 

(suitable for very windy sites with 

some extreme wind or turbulence) 

and 100-m rotor (low wind speed 

turbine – suitable for sites with low 

wind speeds).

The enlarged rotor moves the 

power curve to the left so the 

turbine produces more power (and 

energy) at lower wind speeds. 

At 7 m/s, it might have produced 

~551 kW with an 82.5-m rotor, but 

with a 100-m rotor it will produce 

~745 kW –a 35% increase!! Over 

the course of a year, it really makes 

a difference.

GE 1.6-MW Wind Turbine Example

36

Courtesy of GE Power & Water
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0 50 100 150 200 250

Increase Compared to 30 ft

Tower Height, ft

 

Wind Power Increase

Wind Speed Increase

Wind power increase

Wind speed increase

Wind Speed and Power Increase with 

Height above the Ground

37
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Resource Characterization 

Improvements

38

Photo by Dennis Schroeder, NREL 25861
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Wind Resource Mapping: Wind Class at 50-m Height

• 50-m wind mapping 

(2001-2009) 

• Culmination of long-term 

project that began in 2001; 

jointly funded by states 

and DOE

• Comprehensive validation 

of maps using available 

measurement data

• Incorporated state maps by 

others to produce a 

national wind map 

(“patchwork quilt” evident 

in some regions) 

• 50-m wind potential 

estimates to support U.S. 

20% wind scenario study

39
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Changes in Wind Maps over Time: 

Kansas Example

40
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Importance of Wind Resource Assessment

Steady 7 m/s

1/3 of year at 5 m/s

1/3 of year at 7 m/s

1/3 of year at 9 m/s

1/3 of year at 3 m/s

1/3 of year at 7 m/s

1/3 of year at 11 m/s

Mean Annual Wind Speed = 7 m/s
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Not All 7 m/s Sites Are Equal!

WIND SPEED AT 5 - 7 - 9 M/S

Annual Energy 2,466,956 kWh/yr

Annual Revenue/turbine $148,017 $/yr/turb

Wind Farm Size 300 MW

Annual Revenue/Farm $29,603,471 $/yr/turb

Increase in Rev/Yr $7,066,187 $/yr/farm

Energy & Rev Increase 31.4%

BASE CASE - STEADY WIND AT 7 M/S

Annual Energy 1,878,107 kWh/yr

Annual Revenue/turbine $112,686 $/yr/turb

Wind Farm Size 300 MW

Annual Revenue/Farm $22,537,284 $/yr/turb

WIND SPEED AT 3 - 7 - 11 M/S

Annual Energy 3,912,763 kWh/yr

Annual Revenue/turbine $234,766 $/yr/turb

Wind Farm Size 300 MW

Annual Revenue/Farm $46,953,158 $/yr/turb

Increase in Rev/Yr $24,415,874 $/yr/farm

Energy & Rev Increase 108.3%
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Recent U.S. Wind Resource Map: 

Wind Speed at 80 m

43
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

New U.S. Wind Resource Map: Wind Speed at 100 m

Source: http://energy.gov/eere/wind/wind-resource-assessment-and-characterization

44
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

Rebound in Wind Installations in 2014 and 2015; 

Uncertainty Returns in 2016

• AWEA: 12 GW of wind under construction

• BNEF expects 15 GW in 2014-2015

• EIA expects 16.7 GW in 2014-2015

• Navigant expects 12.3 GW in 2014-2015.

2014-15 expected to be 

strong as developers 

commission projects 

that began construction 

in 2013 to receive PTC 

• Lack of clarity about federal tax incentives 

• Low natural gas & wholesale electric prices

• Modest electricity demand growth

• Limited near-term demand from RPS 

policies.

2016 and beyond are 

uncertain: aggressive 

wind pricing may 

support higher growth 

but multiple headwinds

45

Source: Wiser, R. A Preview of the 2013 Wind Technologies Market Report, WINDExchange Summit, Las Vegas NV. May 8, 2014
Proprietary Information Of Energy 2014

• National Wind Technology Center – research

• Wind – incentives & markets

• Wind technology improvements 

• Wind resource assessment improvements.

Opportunities for Wind Technology 

46
Questions?

For more info:

www.nrel.gov/wind/

www.nrel.gov/tech_deployment/wind.html

http://energy.gov/eere/wind/wind-program 

www.awea.org/

www.nrel.gov/wind/resource_assessment.html

Robi Robichaud

robi.robichaud@nrel.gov

Senior Engineer

Federal Wind - WINDExchange & Wind 

Deployment 

National Wind Technology Center

National Renewable Energy Laboratory

15013 Denver West Parkway

Golden, CO 80401