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Distributed Wind Market 

Diffusion Model Overview

Small Wind Conference 2014

Robert Preus, Easan Drury, 

Ben Sigrin, Mike Gleason

June 16, 2014

Stevens Point, Wisconsin

NREL/PR-5000-62242
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Notice: all data are samples only-not real.

• This presentation includes sample graphs and 

tables and all data included are for purposes 

of illustrating graphical output format. 

• The model has not been confirmed to 

produce reliable data and not all examples 

are from the same model input set. 
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Purpose/Background (1 of 2)

• Simulate distributed wind demand through 

2050. Simulates customer purchase decision. 

• Explore market impacts of: 

o DG wind price changes

o DG wind performance changes

o DG wind policy changes and incentives

o Changes to electricity rates and rate structure 

o Different customer adoption dynamics

o Other factors.
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Purpose/Background (2 of 2)

• Three market segments: industrial, 

commercial, residential (Ag covered in residential 

and commercial datasets and could not be 

consistently separated out.)

• Borrows heavily from the earlier Solar 

Deployment Systems (SolarDS) model

o Upgrade of statistical approach 

o Addition of wind-specific databases and analysis.
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Modeling Distributed Wind Diffusion

(1) Simulate the distributed wind energy generation profiles for 

a range of turbine sizes and heights (12 sizes from 2.5 to 

3,000 kW).

(2) Characterize the electricity load and onsite wind power 

potential for multiple market segments (residential, 

commercial, and industrial). 

(3) Represent siting exclusions and limitations by location for 

each market segment. 

(3) Calculate the distributed wind economics for each market 

segment and location.

(4) Calculate distributed wind diffusion based on wind 

economics and historical DW deployment. 
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Modeling Distributed Wind Diffusion

DW Market (DWM) model simulates distributed wind diffusion at the county 

level.

There are 3,144

counties and 

equivalent 

jurisdictions

in the United 

States
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Modeling Distributed Wind Diffusion

DWM wind turbine size and hub height matrix

Turbine Rated 

Power (kW) h1 (m) h2 (m) h3 (m) h4 (m)

2.5 30

5 30 40

10 30 40 50

20 30 40 50

50 30 40 50

100 40 50

250 50

500 50 80

750 50 80

1000 80

1500 80

3000 80

When 30m wind data are added we will add a 20m hub height option for 2.5 kW turbines.

Other height options will be considered and balanced against the added computation required.
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Siting Exclusions

• Urbanization and canopy cover are used as proxies 

for allowed siting and allowed tower height options.

200 m square 

grid size 
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Performance

• Turbine performance (kWh/kWrating/year) is modeled 

on a unit basis (per kW) using generic power curves 

derived from a variety of current turbines. 

• The family of generic curves was created assuming 

an array of values for turbine efficiency (%) and 

specific swept area (m2/kWrating).

• Improvements in wind turbine performance are 

modeled by using a combination of increased area 

and efficiency.
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Performance

As illustrated,there are large improvements expected.
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Wind Economics – Turbine Installed Cost

Turbine 

Rated 

Power 

(kW)

Tower 

height 

adjust 

($/kW/m)

Minimum 

Height (m)

Cost At 

Minimum 

Height 

($/kW)

2.5 $230 20 $12,092

5 $130 30 $7,790

10 $80 30 $7,400

20 $38 40 $7,363

50 $16 40 $6,449

100 $8 40 $5,395

250 $7 50 $4,132

500 $7 50 $3,278

750 $6 50 $2,388

1,000 $6 80 $2,145

1,500 $6 80 $1,810

3,000 $6 80 $1,810

Values for Model
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Optimum Turbine Size/Hub Height Combination

For model 

checking. 

We will likely

need to add 

height 

restraints to 

get more 

realistic 

results for 

small wind. 
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Diffusion – Past Work

Maximum market share as a 

function of payback time from 

referenced studies. We are 

currently adding new 

relationships based on a survey 

of 790 PV owners and 

developing a wind survey plan. 

Typical annual and cumulative 

adoption rates simulated using 

Bass Diffusion model. 
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Questions the Model Cannot Address

• What is the impact of other DG technologies 

on the market for DW? 

• How will new technologies change the 

marketplace? 

• What will be the future financial structure of 

utilities? And how will it impact the value of 

DG energy? 
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Questions the Model Can Address

• What is the potential market size with 

current economic conditions? 

• How large can it grow with a range of 

performance and cost improvements?

• How much can reducing soft costs and other 

barriers improve the market? 

• How much impact will incentives have and 

which ones are most effective? 

• What is the impact of more attractive 

financing options? 
Robert Preus

robert.preus@nrel.gov