Simulation Results

Iterations

Seed 1

0 $131

1 $137

2 $141

3 $146

4 $157

5 $166

6 $192

7 $199

8 $230

9 $247

10 $308

The above simulation results are based on the following options:

Iterations 10000

Energy Price Trend AEO 2010 Reference

Efficiency Market Share Scenario Rollup

Manufacturing Cost Scenario Base Case

5% 25% 50%

1 -1.0 2.9 7.5

2 -2.8 3.0 9.8

Simulation Controls

Installed 

Price

Average Life-Cycle Cos

Efficiency

Level

Efficiency Level 

Description

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Cost ($2009)

Efficiency Level

Life-Cycle Cost Savings

75%

Median

25%

Mean

Run Simulation

Run Sensitivities

Run Reference Case

10000
3 -6.4 1.4 10.6 4 -15.6 -5.2 5.8 5 -22.5 -10.0 3.2 6 -45.9 -31.7 -16.7 7 -51.2 -34.9 -17.4 8 -80.1 -62.2 -43.0 9 -94.8 -74.8 -53.3

10 -151.8 -128.2 -102.6

5% 25% 50%

1 1.0 1.4 1.8 2 1.2 1.6 2.1 3 1.5 2.0 2.5 4 2.1 2.8 3.5 5 2.3 3.1 3.9 6 3.5 4.7 6.0 7 3.4 4.6 5.8 8 4.4 6.0 7.7 9 4.7 6.3 8.0

10 6.0 8.1 10.4
Net Cost No Impact Net Benefit Median Average

$167 $298

$151 $287 $11 9.01% 1.60% 89.39% 1.8 1.7

$143 $284 $14 13.62% 1.39% 84.99% 2.1 2.0

$135 $281 $17 19.66% 1.39% 78.95% 2.5 2.4

$127 $284 $14 36.75% 1.00% 62.25% 3.5 3.4

$119 $285 $13 43.44% 0.92% 55.64% 3.9 3.8

$112 $304 -$6 71.33% 0.00% 28.67% 6.0 5.9

$104 $303 -$5 69.81% 0.00% 30.19% 5.8 5.7

$97 $327 -$29 83.54% 0.00% 16.46% 7.7 7.5

$89 $336 -$38 85.44% 0.00% 14.56% 8.0 7.8

$75 $383 -$85 92.15% 0.00% 7.85% 10.4 10.1

 on the following options:

AEO 2010 Reference

75% 95% 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% Average

13.6 32.2 1 3.9 2.9 4.6 6.1 18.6 10.6

19.0 46.9 2 5.8 3.0 6.9 9.1 27.9 14.5

Annual 

Operating 

Cost* 

Life-Cycle 

Cost

Average Life-Cycle Cost Life-Cycle Cost Savings

Average 

Savings

LCC BoxPlot Calculations

Households that Experience

Payback Period (years)

8 9 10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Years

Efficiency Level

Payback Period

75%

Median

25%

Mean
22.8 60.1 3 7.8 1.4 9.2 12.2 37.3 16.8

21.0 67.7 4 10.3 -5.2 11.0 15.2 46.7 13.6

21.5 77.5 5 12.5 -10.0 13.2 18.3 56.0 12.6

4.1 68.2 6 14.2 -31.7 15.0 20.8 64.2 -6.0

6.2 80.1 7 16.2 -34.9 17.5 23.7 73.9 -5.3

-16.7 64.8 8 17.9 -62.2 19.2 26.3 81.5 -29.5

-24.1 67.2 9 20.0 -74.8 21.5 29.3 91.2 -38.3

-68.2 40.0 10 23.6 -128.2 25.6 34.4 108.2 -85.0

75% 95% 5% 25% 50% 75% 95% Average

2.0 2.2 1 0.3 1.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.7

2.4 2.6 2 0.4 1.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 2.0

2.9 3.2 3 0.5 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.3 2.4

4.1 4.5 4 0.7 2.8 0.8 0.5 0.4 3.4

4.5 5.0 5 0.8 3.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 3.8

6.9 7.9 6 1.2 4.7 1.3 0.9 1.0 5.9

6.7 7.7 7 1.2 4.6 1.3 0.9 1.0 5.7

8.8 10.1 8 1.5 6.0 1.7 1.2 1.3 7.5

9.3 10.6 9 1.6 6.3 1.8 1.2 1.3 7.8

11.9 13.6 10 2.1 8.1 2.3 1.6 1.7 10.1

PBP BoxPlot Calculations
9 10


LCC Summary Compact Refrigerator

User Input: Import Parameters ANNUAL CASH FLOW CALCULATION :

Engineering Data Average

Elec

Energy Price Trend NIA flag 0 from Equipment Price $48 Installed Price Age Year $/kWh

CO2 Price flag 0 from Energy Use : 329 kWh TECBase 2007 $0.11

Efficiency Market Share Scenario 0

1 2014 $0.10

Manufacturing Cost Scenario from Discount Rate 7.1% Discount rate 2 2015 $0.10

from Energy Prices : 3 2016 $0.10

Average Lifetime 6 2014 Electricity Price $0.102 $/kWh (in 2009$) 4 2017 $0.10

Average Volume (cu. Ft) 1.5 5 2018 $0.10

Sector Parameters from Base Case Eff Dist Base Case Level 6 2019 $0.10

2 Share 0 7 2020 $0.10

Residential 21% 8 2021 $0.11

> Commercial 79% 9 2022 $0.11

Links : 10 2023 $0.11

Base Case Eff Dist Equipment Price 11 2024 $0.11

Energy Use Energy Prices 12 2025 $0.11

Energy Price Trends Discount Rate 13 2026 $0.11

Lifetime Standards 14 2027 $0.11

AV Equations 15 2028 $0.11

16 2029 $0.11

Compact Refrigerators : 17 2030 $0.11

Installed TEC Annual Cumulative Life LCC Price Oper. Cost Payback Net No Payback 18 2031 $0.11

Level Efficiency Level Source Price Elec Oper. Cost Cash Flow Cycle Cost Savings Increase Saving Period Cost Impact undefined 19 2032 $0.11

$ kWh/yr $ / year $ $ $ year 20 2033 $0.12

> 0 1.00 $48 329 $35.00 $181 $160 21 2034 $0.12

1 1.10 $53 296 $31.64 $173 $155 $6 $5 $3.4 1.56 22 2035 $0.12

2 1.15 $57 280 $29.97 $171 $153 $7 $9 $5.0 1.83 23 2036 $0.12

3 1.20 $63 264 $28.27 $170 $154 $7 $15 $6.7 2.21 24 2037 $0.12

4 1.25 $74 247 $26.58 $175 $160 $1 $26 $8.4 3.10 25 2038 $0.12

5 1.30 $83 231 $24.88 $177 $163 -$3 $35 $10.1 3.47 1 26 2039 $0.12

6 1.35 $108 214 $23.42 $197 $184 -$23 $60 $11.6 5.22 1 27 2040 $0.12

7 1.40 $116 198 $21.73 $198 $185 -$25 $68 $13.3 5.10 1 28 2041 $0.12

8 1.45 $147 181 $20.28 $223 $212 -$51 $99 $14.7 6.69 1 29 2042 $0.12

9 1.50 $163 165 $18.58 $234 $223 -$62 $115 $16.4 7.02 1 30 2043 $0.12

10 1.59 $224 136 $15.63 $283 $274 -$113 $176 $19.4 9.07 1 31 2044 $0.12

Base Case Efficiency Level (and % market share) 32 2045 $0.13

LCC Savings 98.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 33 2046 $0.13

Level Efficiency Level Efficiency 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total 

Population

Affected 

Population 34 2047 $0.13

1 Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 $6 $5.6 $5.5 $5.60 35 2048 $0.13

2 Default 2012 Standard 1.15 $7 $7.0 $1.4 $6.9 $6.99 36 2049 $0.13

3 Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 $7 $6.8 $1.2 -$0.2 $6.7 $6.80 37 2050 $0.13

4 Added base on Stkholders 1.25 $1 $1.0 -$4.6 -$6.0 -$5.8 $0.9 $0.93 38 2051 $0.13

5 Max Available 1.30 -$3 -$2.5 -$8.1 -$9.6 -$9.4 -$3.5 -$2.6 -$2.59

6 Max Available 1.35 -$23 -$23.1 -$28.7 -$30.1 -$29.9 -$24.0 -$20.5 -$23.1 -$23.09

7 Max Available 1.40 -$25 -$25.0 -$30.6 -$32.0 -$31.8 -$25.9 -$22.4 -$1.9 -$25.0 -$24.99

8 Max Available 1.45 -$51 -$51.0 -$56.6 -$58.0 -$57.9 -$52.0 -$48.5 -$28.0 -$26.1 -$51.1 -$51.06

Incremental Equipment Prices $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

1 Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 $5 $5.2 $5.1 $5.23

2 Default 2012 Standard 1.15 $9 $9.2 $4.0 $9.1 $9.19

3 Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 $15 $14.9 $9.6 $5.7 $14.7 $14.85

4 Added base on Stkholders 1.25 $26 $26.2 $20.9 $17.0 $11.3 $25.9 $26.08

5 Max Available 1.30 $35 $35.1 $29.9 $25.9 $20.3 $9.0 $34.8 $35.04

6 Max Available 1.35 $60 $60.4 $55.2 $51.2 $45.5 $34.2 $25.2 $60.0 $60.02

7 Max Available 1.40 $68 $67.7 $62.5 $58.5 $52.9 $41.6 $32.6 $7.4 $67.4 $67.38

8 Max Available 1.45 $99 $98.5 $93.3 $89.3 $83.7 $72.4 $63.4 $38.1 $30.8 $98.2 $98.17

Operating Cost Savings $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0

1 Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 $3 $3.4 $3.3 $3.36

2 Default 2012 Standard 1.15 $5 $5.0 $1.7 $5.0 $5.02

3 Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 $7 $6.7 $3.4 $1.7 $6.6 $6.72

4 Added base on Stkholders 1.25 $8 $8.4 $5.1 $3.4 $1.7 $8.3 $8.39

Efficiency Index

AEO 2010 Reference

 Sample Calc CB Simulation

Rollup

Base Case
5 Max Available 1.30 $10 $10.1 $6.8 $5.1 $3.4 $1.7 $10.0 $10.08 6 Max Available 1.35 $12 $11.6 $8.2 $6.5 $4.8 $3.2 $1.5 $11.5 $11.46 7 Max Available 1.40 $13 $13.3 $9.9 $8.2 $6.5 $4.8 $3.2 $1.7 $13.2 $13.15 8 Max Available 1.45 $15 $14.7 $11.4 $9.7 $8.0 $6.3 $4.6 $3.1 $1.5 $14.6 $14.60

Payback Periods 1 Between DOE and Default 2012 1.10 1.6 1.6 1.56 2 Default 2012 Standard 1.15 1.8 2.4 1.8 1.83 3 Revised based on Stkholders 1.20 2.2 2.9 3.3 2.2 2.21 4 Added base on Stkholders 1.25 3.1 4.1 5.0 6.7 3.1 3.12 5 Max Available 1.30 3.5 4.4 5.1 6.0 5.3 3.5 3.49 6 Max Available 1.35 5.2 6.7 7.8 9.4 10.9 17.3 5.2 5.34 7 Max Available 1.40 5.1 6.3 7.1 8.1 8.6 10.3 4.3 5.1 5.16 8 Max Available 1.45 6.7 8.2 9.2 10.5 11.5 13.8 12.1 21.2 6.7 6.77

CALCULATION :

Discount Efficiency Level

Factor 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

7.1%

1.00 $47.97 $53.20 $57.17 $62.83 $74.13 $83.12 $108.36 $115.72 $146.50 $163.27 $223.66

0.93 $33.72 $30.34 $28.66 $26.97 $25.29 $23.60 $21.91 $20.23 $18.54 $16.86 $13.92

0.87 $35.14 $31.81 $30.16 $28.47 $26.79 $25.10 $23.74 $22.05 $20.69 $19.01 $16.08

0.81 $35.47 $32.11 $30.44 $28.74 $27.04 $25.33 $23.95 $22.25 $20.88 $19.18 $16.21

0.76 $35.68 $32.30 $30.62 $28.91 $27.19 $25.48 $24.09 $22.38 $20.99 $19.28 $16.30

0.71 $35.69 $32.31 $30.63 $28.92 $27.20 $25.49 $24.10 $22.38 $21.00 $19.29 $16.30

0.66 $35.62 $32.25 $30.57 $28.86 $27.15 $25.44 $24.05 $22.34 $20.96 $19.25 $16.27

0.62 $35.87 $32.47 $30.78 $29.06 $27.34 $25.62 $24.21 $22.49 $21.10 $19.38 $16.38

0.58 $36.11 $32.69 $30.99 $29.25 $27.52 $25.78 $24.37 $22.64 $21.23 $19.50 $16.48

0.54 $36.25 $32.81 $31.10 $29.36 $27.62 $25.88 $24.46 $22.72 $21.31 $19.56 $16.54

0.50 $36.51 $33.05 $31.32 $29.57 $27.81 $26.06 $24.63 $22.87 $21.45 $19.69 $16.64

0.47 $36.70 $33.21 $31.48 $29.72 $27.95 $26.19 $24.75 $22.99 $21.55 $19.79 $16.72

0.44 $36.63 $33.15 $31.43 $29.67 $27.91 $26.15 $24.71 $22.95 $21.51 $19.75 $16.69

0.41 $36.82 $33.32 $31.59 $29.82 $28.05 $26.28 $24.83 $23.06 $21.62 $19.85 $16.77

0.38 $37.05 $33.53 $31.78 $30.00 $28.22 $26.44 $24.98 $23.20 $21.75 $19.96 $16.87

0.36 $37.30 $33.76 $31.99 $30.20 $28.41 $26.61 $25.14 $23.35 $21.88 $20.09 $16.97

0.33 $37.83 $34.24 $32.45 $30.63 $28.81 $26.99 $25.49 $23.67 $22.18 $20.36 $17.19

0.31 $38.24 $34.61 $32.80 $30.96 $29.11 $27.27 $25.75 $23.91 $22.40 $20.56 $17.36

0.29 $38.73 $35.04 $33.21 $31.35 $29.48 $27.61 $26.07 $24.21 $22.67 $20.80 $17.56

0.27 $39.18 $35.45 $33.59 $31.70 $29.82 $27.93 $26.36 $24.47 $22.92 $21.03 $17.74

0.25 $39.40 $35.64 $33.78 $31.88 $29.98 $28.08 $26.51 $24.61 $23.04 $21.14 $17.83

0.24 $39.72 $35.94 $34.05 $32.14 $30.22 $28.31 $26.72 $24.80 $23.21 $21.30 $17.97

0.22 $40.00 $36.19 $34.29 $32.36 $30.43 $28.50 $26.90 $24.97 $23.37 $21.44 $18.08

0.21 $40.35 $36.51 $34.59 $32.64 $30.70 $28.75 $27.13 $25.18 $23.56 $21.62 $18.23

0.19 $40.61 $36.74 $34.81 $32.85 $30.89 $28.93 $27.30 $25.34 $23.71 $21.75 $18.34

0.18 $40.87 $36.97 $35.03 $33.06 $31.09 $29.12 $27.47 $25.49 $23.85 $21.88 $18.44

0.17 $41.14 $37.21 $35.26 $33.27 $31.29 $29.30 $27.64 $25.65 $23.99 $22.01 $18.55

0.16 $41.40 $37.45 $35.48 $33.48 $31.49 $29.49 $27.81 $25.81 $24.14 $22.14 $18.66

0.15 $41.67 $37.69 $35.71 $33.70 $31.69 $29.67 $27.98 $25.97 $24.29 $22.27 $18.77

0.14 $41.94 $37.93 $35.94 $33.91 $31.89 $29.86 $28.16 $26.13 $24.43 $22.41 $18.88

0.13 $42.21 $38.18 $36.17 $34.13 $32.09 $30.05 $28.33 $26.29 $24.58 $22.54 $19.00

0.12 $42.48 $38.42 $36.40 $34.35 $32.29 $30.24 $28.51 $26.46 $24.73 $22.68 $19.11

0.11 $42.76 $38.67 $36.63 $34.57 $32.50 $30.43 $28.69 $26.62 $24.88 $22.82 $19.22

0.10 $43.03 $38.92 $36.87 $34.79 $32.71 $30.63 $28.87 $26.79 $25.03 $22.95 $19.33

0.10 $43.31 $39.17 $37.10 $35.01 $32.91 $30.82 $29.05 $26.95 $25.19 $23.09 $19.45

0.09 $43.59 $39.42 $37.34 $35.23 $33.12 $31.02 $29.23 $27.12 $25.34 $23.23 $19.57

0.08 $43.87 $39.67 $37.58 $35.46 $33.34 $31.21 $29.41 $27.29 $25.50 $23.37 $19.68

0.08 $44.15 $39.92 $37.82 $35.68 $33.55 $31.41 $29.60 $27.46 $25.65 $23.52 $19.80

0.07 $44.44 $40.18 $38.06 $35.91 $33.76 $31.61 $29.78 $27.63 $25.81 $23.66 $19.92


Base Case Eff Dist back to Summary

Compact Refrigerator Market Share Efficiency Data 

Base Case Level

Export Parameters 0

To LCC Summary: 1

2

Base Case Efficiency 1.00 3

Corresponding Eff. Level 0 4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Non ES 0

ES

Non HFC Level

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Non ES 9

ES 10

0

Compact Refrigerator Market Share Efficiency Data 

Efficiency 

Index 2014

1.00 98.5% 0 98.5%

1.10 0.3% 1 0.3%

1.15 0.0% 2 0.0%

1.20 0.5% 3 0.5%

1.25 0.1% 4 0.1%

1.30 0.8% 5 0.8%

1.35 0.0% 6 0.0%

1.40 0.0% 7 0.0%

1.45 0.0% 8 0.0%

1.50 0.0% 9 0.0%

1.59 0.0% 10 0.0%

Base Case Efficiency for Household = 1.00

Efficiency 

Index 2014

1.00 98.7% 0 98.7%

1.10 0.0% 1 0.0%

1.15 0.5% 2 0.5%

1.20 0.1% 3 0.1%

1.25 0.8% 4 0.8%

1.30 0.0% 5 0.0%

1.35 0.0% 6 0.0%

1.40 0.0% 7 0.0%

1.45 0.0% 8 0.0%

1.50 0.0% 9 0.0%

1.57 0.0% 10 0.0%

Base Case Efficiency for Household = 1.00

Distribution by Efficiency 

Level

Distribution by Efficiency 

Level






Division back to Summary

Export Parameters

Census Division 2 From Residential Distribution

From Commercial Distribution

Number of Customers by Divison and Large States

Residential

New England 1

Middle Atlantic 2

East North Central 3

West North Central 4

South Atlantic 5

East South Central 6

West South Central 7

Mountain 8

Pacific 9

New York State 10

California 11

Texas 12

Florida 13

Commercial

New England 1

Middle Atlantic 2

East North Central 3

West North Central 4

South Atlantic 5

East South Central 6

West South Central 7

Mountain 8

Pacific 9

New York State 10

California 11

Texas 12

Florida 13

6

2

s by Divison and Large States

 6,122,590

 8,601,844

 19,558,522

 8,969,792

 16,891,240

 7,895,454

 4,802,093

 8,722,741

 5,020,777

 6,933,304

 12,819,149

 9,166,849

 8,445,561

 831,765

 1,133,406

 2,372,723

 1,339,783

 2,366,518

 1,338,491

 693,435

 1,284,080

 575,840

 1,016,069

 1,785,796

 1,413,358

 1,117,907










Repair Cost back to Summary

Export Parameters

To LCC Summary:

Annual Repair Cost

Level

0 $1.43

1 $1.47

2 $1.50

3 $1.50

4 $1.50

5 $1.50

6 $1.82

7 $1.82

8 $2.15

9 $2.15

10 $2.15




Equipment Price back to Summary

Export Parameters Compact Refrigerator (all prices in 2009$)

To LCC Summary:

Total Installed Price Level Efficiency Level Source Efficiency

Level 0 Level 0 1.00

0 $48 1 Level 1 1.10

1 $53 2 Level 2 1.15

2 $57 3 Level 3 1.20

3 $63 4 Level 4 1.25

4 $74 5 Level 5 1.30

5 $83 6 Level 6 1.35

6 $108 7 Level 7 1.40

7 $116 8 Level 8 1.45

8 $147 9 Level 9 1.50

9 $163 10 Level 10 1.59

10 $224

Max Level # 10

From RECS Household: Markups

Div & Lrg State Manufacturer Markup 100%

Price Trend Factor 0.9030 Baseline

Retailer Markup 145%

Sales Tax 6.6%

Total Markup incl. Sales Tax 155%

Baseline Equipment Price

Price of Unit $50.00

Average Price of Baseline Unit $ 131.87

Cost (2008$) Frequency

25 149

50 51497

75 530305

100 205189

125 616465

150 441822

175 290451

200 103866

225 35407

250 32110

275 55672

300 12304

325 1676

350 87

375 54

400 17

425 52

450 25

475 14
500 59

525 23

550 32

575 20

600 53

625 20

650 11

675 22

700 17

725 41

750 42

775 23

800 60

825 65

850 94

875 113

900 212

925 137

950 135

975 218

1000 168

1025 159

1050 140

1075 360

1100 87

1125 161

1150 118

1175 108

1200 116

1225 83

1250 81

1275 47

1300 20

1325 57

1350 49

1375 178

1400 52

1425 47

1450 129

1475 329

1500 183

1525 152

1550 224

1575 283
1600 108

1625 109

1650 160

1675 112

1700 62

1725 102

1750 70

1775 85

1800 111

1825 41

1850 45

1875 80

1900 39

1925 80

1950 27

1975 26

2000 24

2025 15

20500

20757

2100 26

2125 29

21509

21750

2200 12

22255

22509

2275 16

2300 10

23250

2350 10

23752

2400 20

2425 29

2450 12

24755

25002

2525 12

2550 24

2575 24

26009

2625 10

26505

26754
2700

2

2725 87

27500

2775 84

2800 27

2825 92

2850 212

2875 248

2900 72

2925 168

2950 57

2975 169

3000 156

3025 139

3050 86

3075 21

3100 48

3125 79

31500

31753

32000

3225 63

32500

32750

33000

33250

33500

33750

34000

34250

34500

2775 84

2800 27

2825 92

2850 212

2875 248

2900 72

2925 168

2950 57

2975 169

3000 156

3025 139

3050 86

3075 21
3100 48

3125 79

31500

31753

32000

3225 63

32500

32750

33000

33250

33500

33750

34000

34250

34500
Delta Mnfr Retail Installation Total Installed

Price from Base Price Cost Price

$34.48 $47.97 $0.00 $47.97

$4.19 $53.20 $0.00 $53.20

$7.38 $57.17 $0.00 $57.17

$11.91 $62.83 $0.00 $62.83

$20.97 $74.13 $0.00 $74.13

$28.17 $83.12 $0.00 $83.12

$48.41 $108.36 $0.00 $108.36

$54.31 $115.72 $0.00 $115.72

$78.99 $146.50 $0.00 $146.50

$92.42 $163.27 $0.00 $163.27

$140.83 $223.66 $0.00 $223.66

Sales Tax by Divison and Large States

Refrigerators

1 New England 6.1% 4.8%

2 Mid Atlantic 6.6% 7.3%

Incremental 3 East North Central 6.9% 16.7%

117% 4 West North Central 6.9% 7.5%

6.6% 5 South Atlantic 6.6% 13.5%

125% 6 East South Central 7.9% 6.0%

7 West South Central 8.4% 3.4%

8 Mountain 6.8% 6.6%

9 Pacific 7.5% 4.3%

10 New York State 8.5% 6.1%

11 California 9.2% 10.7%

12 Texas 8.1% 6.9%

13 Florida 6.7% 6.0%

U.S. Average 7.3%

Fraction of Households by 

Division and Large State




Delta Manufacturing Cost

Level Eff ImprovementBase CaseEff ImprovementNon HFC

0 - -

1 10% $4.64 10.00% $ 5.46

2 15% $8.17 15.00% $ 10.02

3 20% $13.19 20.00% $ 18.62

4 25% $23.22 25.00% $ 26.71

5 30% $31.20 30.00% $ 43.93

6 35% $53.61 35.00% $ 55.44

7 40% $60.14 40.00% $ 73.55

8 45% $87.47 45.00% $ 93.05

9 50% $102.35 50.0% $ 114.81

10 58.7% $ 155.96 56.6% $ 153.75

 

 

Freezers 

3.2% 

6.0% 

18.7% 

11.1% 

15.4% 

8.2% 

5.2% 

8.2% 

6.1% 

2.9% 

5.5% 

6.1% 

3.3% 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fraction of Households by 

Division and Large State




















UAF Calculation back to Summary

Household id DOEID YEARMADE NWEIGHT REGIONC DIVISION LRGSTATE HD65 CD65

1 97 12 25501 3 7 3 1264 3264

2 207 3 24789 4 9 2 2480 46

3 285 3 3324 1 1 0 7046 624

4 288 5 20184 4 8 0 7121 134

5 470 4 32187 1 2 0 4924 1319

6 531 7 24393 2 4 0 5591 1385

7 568 3 36753 3 5 4 554 3576

8 639 8 34572 3 5 4 568 2952

9 651 4 37266 2 3 0 5060 1345

10 667 9 27504 3 5 0 4048 954

11 721 12 31026 3 7 3 1127 3922

12 726 1 8605 4 9 2 2505 63

13 761 6 27169 4 9 0 6430 241

14 819 1 29329 1 2 0 4719 1530

15 877 6 32103 3 5 0 4660 1363

16 902 4 19637 4 9 2 692 1196

17 909 5 25501 3 7 3 1035 3060

18 975 5 12269 1 1 0 6843 668

19 1175 5 22408 2 4 0 7239 402

20 1186 4 30186 2 3 0 5287 1318

21 1236 12 24383 2 4 0 5812 1328

22 1258 1 16339 3 6 0 3607 1745

23 1299 3 30281 2 3 0 7314 765

24 1382 1 15452 1 1 0 7575 486

25 1415 3 4440 3 5 0 4151 1809

26 1426 5 26279 2 3 0 6096 986

27 1461 1 5777 2 3 0 5511 1211

28 1535 9 26331 2 4 0 7620 644

29 1547 3 26008 4 9 2 2576 22

30 1567 9 22697 4 9 2 1242 855

31 1613 4 17489 1 1 0 6575 751

32 1653 7 31475 2 3 0 4851 1355

33 1705 2 5941 1 1 0 6450 824

34 1714 11 31026 3 7 3 1170 3388

35 1763 3 30186 2 3 0 5083 1568

36 1778 9 36589 3 5 0 4631 1372

37 1815 4 28060 2 3 0 7238 855

38 1850 7 38455 4 9 2 1312 403

39 1896 5 22807 4 9 0 4277 211

40 1940 10 5606 4 9 0 5408 706

41 1983 12 33936 4 9 2 623 4728

42 1989 1 26059 4 9 0 7607 77

43 2037 3 35857 3 7 3 1711 2566

44 2071 2 31905 2 3 0 6397 937

45 2077 6 21345 4 9 2 1121 1232

46 2124 3 23269 4 8 0 706 4997

47 2175 4 27419 3 7 0 1538 3013

48 2476 9 13439 4 9 0 16 3621

49 2554 1 16373 1 1 0 6518 804

50 2643 12 29329 1 2 0 5435 1282
51 2682

3 25715373 2334 2042

52 2707

1 42408121 4902 1247

53 2716

6 19400490 6716 176

54 2833

2 29238120 5016 1291

55 2930

5 26026490 4471 160

56 2970

8 28069360 1654 2466

57 2990

1 8605492 2514 58

58 3023 10 31737

492 1244 525

59 3050

1 5941110 6452 840

60 3241

1 22136360 3697 1638

61 3294

4 30599373 1804 3394

62 3444

5 29067120 5615 1022

63 3502

4 19093360 4374 1265

64 3518

8 34000230 6952 915

65 3577

8 13423110 7874 568

66 3586

4 30416350 4731 1387

67 3629

8 30196492 1244 1605

68 3647

6 21345492 839 860

69 3784

4 19969492 2255 476

70 3811

9 22231480 6581 276

71 3860

3 19637492 613 1587

72 4035

7 49195350 5052 1099

73 4081 12 26058

360 4009 1460

74 4129

4 22418360 5223 1290

75 4134

6 21345492 1854 1739

76 4203

1 16008110 6200 910

77 4214

6 29248350 3175 1608

78 4233

2 36423492 2592 12

79 4268

9 18359240 6446 752

80 4276

5 31114230 5861 1005

81 4314

1 16373110 6800 650

82 4344

7 20429360 3077 2141






RECS household sampled

household index 1

RECS id 97

Household Characteristics

Daily HDD (65) 3.46

Daily CDD(65) 8.94
































Energy Use back to Summary

Compact Refrigerators

ESAF= 0.977

Efficiency 

Index TEC

Level Source Standard Unit

kWh

0 Level 0 1.00 329.44

1 Level 1 1.10 296.50

2 Level 2 1.15 280.03

3 Level 3 1.20 263.55

4 Level 4 1.25 247.08

5 Level 5 1.30 230.61

6 Level 6 1.35 214.14

7 Level 7 1.40 197.66

8 Level 8 1.45 181.19

9 Level 9 1.50 164.72

10 Level 10 1.59 136.06

random # for cum % 36%

Volume picked from distribution 3.5

Adj. Volume 3.57

cum. % size Cu.Ft

0% 1.5

24% 2.5

35% 3.5

71% 4.5

87% 5.5

100% 6.5

100% 7.5

100% 8.5

100% 9.5

100% 10.5

Source: CEC Database










































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































0.981517



















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Rebuttable PBP back to Summary

Base Case Total Installed TEC

Level Efficiency Level Source Efficiency Price kWh

0 Level 0 1.00 $141.98 307.6

1 Level 1 1.10 $147.77 276.8

2 Level 2 1.15 $152.17 261.4

3 Level 3 1.20 $158.44 246.1

4 Level 4 1.25 $170.95 230.7

5 Level 5 1.30 $180.90 215.3

6 Level 6 1.35 $208.86 199.9

7 Level 7 1.40 $217.01 184.5

8 Level 8 1.45 $251.10 169.2

9 Level 9 1.50 $269.67 153.8

10 Level 10 1.59 $336.55 127.0

Non HFC Total Installed TEC

Level Efficiency Level Source Efficiency Price kWh

0 Level 0 1.00 $141.98 307.6

1 Level 1 1.10 $148.79 276.8

2 Level 2 1.15 $154.49 261.4

3 Level 3 1.20 $165.21 246.1

4 Level 4 1.25 $175.30 230.7

5 Level 5 1.30 $196.79 215.3

6 Level 6 1.35 $211.15 199.9

7 Level 7 1.40 $233.73 184.5

8 Level 8 1.45 $258.07 169.2

9 Level 9 1.50 $285.21 153.8

10 Level 10 1.57 $333.79 133.4
1st Year Rebuttable 

Energy Cost PBP

$ 33.1

$ 29.8 1.7

$ 28.2 2.1

$ 26.5 2.5

$ 24.8 3.5

$ 23.2 3.9

$ 21.5 5.8

$ 19.9 5.7

$ 18.2 7.3

$ 16.6 7.7

$ 13.7 10.0

1st Year Rebuttable 

Energy Cost PBP

$ 33.1

$ 29.8 2.1

$ 28.2 2.5

$ 26.5 3.5

$ 24.8 4.0

$ 23.2 5.5

$ 21.5 6.0

$ 19.9 6.9

$ 18.2 7.8

$ 16.6 8.6

$ 14.4 10.2



Energy Prices back to Summary

Export Parameters Scale 2007 Prices in 2008$

To LCC Summary: 2007 Residential Energy Prices

2007 Elec Price $0.111 $/kWh Div. & Elec

Lrg State 2009$ / kWh

1 $0.162

Import Parameters 2 $0.127

From Distribution of Household/Businesses: 3 $0.102

Div & Lrg State 2 4 $0.088

5 $0.098

6 $0.087

CPI's used to scale $ to 2008$ 7 $0.093

year CPI 8 $0.097

2005 195.3 9 $0.099

2006 201.6 10 $0.178

2007 207.3 11 $0.150

2008 215.3 12 $0.128

2009 214.5 13 $0.116

U.S. Avg $0.115

2007 Commercial Energy Prices

Div. & Elec

Lrg State 2009$ / kWh

1 $0.153

2 $0.111

3 $0.091

4 $0.075

5 $0.085

6 $0.086

7 $0.085

8 $0.083

9 $0.094

10 $0.168

11 $0.136

12 $0.118

13 $0.101

U.S. Avg $0.106
RESIDENTIAL 2007 price Source: EIA

Div. & Elec

Lrg State 2006$ / kWh

1 $0.152

2 $0.119

3 $0.096

4 $0.082

5 $0.092

6 $0.081

7 $0.087

8 $0.091

9 $0.093

10 $0.167

11 $0.141

12 $0.120

13 $0.109

U.S. Avg $0.108

COMMERCIAL 2007 Price Source: EIA

Div. & Comm. Elec

Lrg State 2007$/kWh

1 $0.148

2 $0.107

3 $0.088

4 $0.072

5 $0.082

6 $0.083

7 $0.082

8 $0.081

9 $0.091

10 $0.163

11 $0.131

12 $0.115

13 $0.098

U.S. Avg $0.102



Energy Price Trends back to Summary

Import Parameters AEO 2010 Residential Energy Price Projection for Electricity AEO 2010 Commercial Energy Price Projection for Electricity

from: LCC Summary (GUI) 1 Reference Case 1 Reference Case

Electricity Price Projection Index 1 2 High Growth Scenario 2 High Growth Scenario Negociation material

i.e. AEO 2010 Reference 3 Low Growth Scenario 3 Low Growth Scenario

Alternative CO2 Prices RES Alternative CO2 Prices COM

Export Parameters Electricity Price Electricity Price Electricity Price Electricity Price

to: LCC Summary Trend relative to 2007 (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in cent / kWh) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in cent / kWh) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) (in 2008$ / MMBtu) Carbon Cap price factor

AEO 2010 Reference AEO 2010 Reference Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Ref. High Low Com

Res Elec Com Elec 2007 31.82 31.82 31.82 10.86 10.86 10.86 2007 28.81 28.81 28.81 9.83 9.83 9.83 2007 31.82 31.82 31.82 28.81 28.81 28.81 1

2007 1.00 1.00 2008 33.29 33.31 33.29 11.36 11.37 11.36 2008 30.47 30.49 30.46 10.40 10.41 10.40 2008 33.31 33.33 33.31 30.49 30.51 30.48 1.001

2008 1.05 1.06 2009 32.33 32.44 32.27 11.04 11.07 11.01 2009 28.94 29.12 28.80 9.88 9.94 9.83 2009 32.39 32.50 32.33 28.99 29.17 28.85 1.002

2009 1.02 1.00 2010 30.94 31.13 30.70 10.56 10.62 10.48 2010 27.37 27.60 27.08 9.34 9.42 9.24 2010 30.92 31.11 30.68 27.35 27.59 27.07 0.999

2010 0.97 0.95 2011 29.90 30.24 29.44 10.21 10.32 10.05 2011 25.72 26.12 25.19 8.78 8.92 8.60 2011 29.82 30.15 29.35 25.65 26.05 25.12 0.997

2011 0.94 0.89 2012 31.08 31.61 30.40 10.61 10.79 10.38 2012 26.72 27.34 25.92 9.12 9.33 8.85 2012 31.44 31.97 30.75 27.02 27.66 26.21 1.011

2012 0.98 0.93 2013 31.47 32.11 30.68 10.74 10.96 10.47 2013 26.81 27.58 25.86 9.15 9.41 8.82 2013 32.14 32.79 31.33 27.38 28.16 26.40 1.021

2013 0.99 0.93 2014 31.49 32.36 30.52 10.75 11.05 10.42 2014 26.55 27.55 25.36 9.06 9.40 8.66 2014 32.18 33.08 31.20 27.13 28.16 25.92 1.022

2014 0.99 0.92 2015 31.43 32.44 30.47 10.73 11.07 10.40 2015 26.55 27.70 25.33 9.06 9.45 8.65 2015 32.52 33.57 31.54 27.47 28.66 26.21 1.035

2015 0.99 0.92 2016 31.64 32.82 30.72 10.80 11.20 10.48 2016 26.81 28.15 25.61 9.15 9.61 8.74 2016 32.97 34.19 32.00 27.93 29.32 26.68 1.042

2016 0.99 0.93 2017 31.80 33.11 30.70 10.85 11.30 10.48 2017 26.97 28.44 25.61 9.21 9.71 8.74 2017 33.35 34.72 32.19 28.29 29.82 26.86 1.049

2017 1.00 0.94 2018 31.78 33.28 30.49 10.85 11.36 10.41 2018 26.98 28.60 25.46 9.21 9.76 8.69 2018 33.56 35.15 32.20 28.50 30.21 26.89 1.056

2018 1.00 0.94 2019 31.68 33.29 30.30 10.81 11.36 10.34 2019 26.93 28.62 25.31 9.19 9.77 8.64 2019 33.58 35.28 32.12 28.54 30.34 26.83 1.060

2019 1.00 0.93 2020 31.84 33.40 30.39 10.87 11.40 10.37 2020 27.12 28.73 25.44 9.26 9.81 8.68 2020 33.97 35.62 32.42 28.93 30.65 27.14 1.067

2020 1.00 0.94 2021 32.01 33.55 30.62 10.92 11.45 10.45 2021 27.31 28.89 25.71 9.32 9.86 8.77 2021 34.42 36.07 32.92 29.37 31.06 27.64 1.075

2021 1.01 0.95 2022 32.08 33.60 30.70 10.95 11.47 10.48 2022 27.42 29.00 25.87 9.36 9.90 8.83 2022 34.71 36.36 33.22 29.67 31.38 27.99 1.082

2022 1.01 0.95 2023 32.20 33.90 30.63 10.99 11.57 10.46 2023 27.62 29.41 25.91 9.43 10.04 8.84 2023 34.85 36.70 33.16 29.90 31.83 28.04 1.082

2023 1.01 0.96 2024 32.28 34.12 30.45 11.02 11.65 10.39 2024 27.77 29.67 25.79 9.48 10.13 8.80 2024 35.07 37.07 33.08 30.17 32.23 28.02 1.086

2024 1.01 0.96 2025 32.26 34.05 30.34 11.01 11.62 10.36 2025 27.72 29.56 25.68 9.46 10.09 8.76 2025 35.21 37.17 33.12 30.26 32.27 28.03 1.092

2025 1.01 0.96 2026 32.40 34.12 30.37 11.06 11.64 10.36 2026 27.87 29.62 25.73 9.51 10.11 8.78 2026 35.86 37.77 33.61 30.85 32.78 28.48 1.107

2026 1.02 0.97 2027 32.57 34.22 30.40 11.12 11.68 10.38 2027 28.05 29.73 25.80 9.57 10.15 8.81 2027 36.76 38.62 34.31 31.66 33.56 29.12 1.129

2027 1.02 0.97 2028 32.73 34.31 30.53 11.17 11.71 10.42 2028 28.25 29.86 26.00 9.64 10.19 8.88 2028 37.71 39.54 35.18 32.55 34.40 29.96 1.152

2028 1.03 0.98 2029 33.13 34.63 30.92 11.31 11.82 10.55 2029 28.67 30.16 26.43 9.78 10.29 9.02 2029 38.86 40.61 36.26 33.62 35.37 30.99 1.173

2029 1.04 0.99 2030 33.46 34.88 31.29 11.42 11.90 10.68 2030 28.99 30.42 26.81 9.89 10.38 9.15 2030 39.78 41.47 37.20 34.47 36.17 31.88 1.189

2030 1.05 1.01 2031 $33.81 35.03 31.38 11.47 11.96 10.71 2031 29.37 30.60 26.96 9.96 10.44 9.20 2031 $40.61 42.08 37.69 35.28 36.75 32.38 1.201

2031 1.06 1.02 2032 34.11 35.19 31.47 11.53 12.01 10.74 2032 29.73 30.77 27.10 10.03 10.50 9.25 2032 41.39 42.69 38.19 36.07 37.34 32.88 1.213

2032 1.07 1.03 2033 34.26 35.34 31.57 11.59 12.06 10.77 2033 29.90 30.95 27.24 10.09 10.56 9.30 2033 41.98 43.31 38.69 36.64 37.93 33.39 1.226

2033 1.08 1.04 2034 34.49 35.49 31.66 11.65 12.11 10.81 2034 30.15 31.13 27.38 10.16 10.62 9.35 2034 42.70 43.93 39.19 37.32 38.53 33.90 1.238

2034 1.08 1.05 2035 34.71 35.65 31.75 11.70 12.17 10.84 2035 30.37 31.30 27.53 10.23 10.68 9.40 2035 43.39 44.56 39.69 37.97 39.13 34.41 1.250

2035 1.09 1.05 2036 34.97 35.80 31.84 11.76 12.22 10.87 2036 30.65 31.48 27.67 10.30 10.75 9.45 2036 44.30 45.24 40.24 38.69 39.74 34.93 1.262

2036 1.10 1.06 2037 35.14 35.96 31.94 11.82 12.27 10.90 2037 30.86 31.66 27.82 10.37 10.81 9.49 2037 45.01 45.94 40.80 39.33 40.36 35.46 1.274

2037 1.10 1.07 2038 35.31 36.12 32.03 11.88 12.33 10.93 2038 31.06 31.85 27.97 10.43 10.87 9.54 2038 45.73 46.64 41.36 39.97 40.98 35.98 1.287

2038 1.11 1.08 2039 35.49 36.27 32.12 11.94 12.38 10.96 2039 31.27 32.03 28.11 10.50 10.93 9.60 2039 46.45 47.35 41.94 40.62 41.60 36.52 1.299

2039 1.12 1.09 2040 35.66 36.43 32.22 12.00 12.43 11.00 2040 31.48 32.21 28.26 10.57 10.99 9.65 2040 47.19 48.08 42.52 41.27 42.24 37.06 1.311

2040 1.12 1.09 2041 35.84 36.59 32.31 12.06 12.49 11.03 2041 31.69 32.40 28.41 10.65 11.06 9.70 2041 47.94 48.82 43.11 41.94 42.87 37.60 1.323

2041 1.13 1.10 2042 36.02 36.75 32.41 12.12 12.54 11.06 2042 31.90 32.58 28.56 10.72 11.12 9.75 2042 48.71 49.56 43.71 42.61 43.52 38.15 1.336

2042 1.13 1.11 2043 36.19 36.91 32.50 12.17 12.60 11.09 2043 32.11 32.77 28.71 10.79 11.18 9.80 2043 49.48 50.32 44.31 43.28 44.17 38.70 1.348

2043 1.14 1.11 2044 36.37 37.07 32.60 12.24 12.65 11.13 2044 32.33 32.96 28.86 10.86 11.25 9.85 2044 50.27 51.09 44.93 43.97 44.83 39.26 1.360

2044 1.14 1.12 2045 36.55 37.23 32.69 12.30 12.71 11.16 2045 32.54 33.15 29.01 10.93 11.31 9.90 2045 51.07 51.88 45.55 44.66 45.49 39.82 1.372

2045 1.15 1.13 2046 36.73 37.39 32.79 12.36 12.76 11.19 2046 32.76 33.34 29.17 11.01 11.38 9.96 2046 51.88 52.67 46.18 45.36 46.16 40.38 1.385

2046 1.15 1.14 2047 36.92 37.56 32.88 12.42 12.82 11.22 2047 32.98 33.53 29.32 11.08 11.44 10.01 2047 52.71 53.48 46.82 46.06 46.83 40.96 1.397

2047 1.16 1.14 2048 37.10 37.72 32.98 12.48 12.87 11.26 2048 33.20 33.72 29.48 11.15 11.51 10.06 2048 53.55 54.30 47.47 46.78 47.51 41.53 1.409

2048 1.17 1.15 2049 37.28 37.89 33.08 12.54 12.93 11.29 2049 33.42 33.91 29.63 11.23 11.57 10.11 2049 54.40 55.13 48.13 47.50 48.20 42.11 1.421

2049 1.17 1.16 2050 37.47 38.05 33.17 12.60 12.99 11.32 2050 33.64 34.11 29.79 11.30 11.64 10.17 2050 55.26 55.97 48.80 48.23 48.89 42.70 1.433

2050 1.18 1.17 2051 37.65 38.22 33.27 12.67 13.04 11.36 2051 33.87 34.30 29.95 11.38 11.71 10.22 2051 56.14 56.83 49.48 48.96 49.59 43.29 1.446

2051 1.18 1.18 2052 37.84 38.38 33.37 12.73 13.10 11.39 2052 34.09 34.50 30.10 11.45 11.78 10.27 2052 57.04 57.70 50.16 49.71 50.30 43.89 1.458

2052 1.19 1.18

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Residential Electricity Price (AEO2010)

Reference

High

Low

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Electricity Price Trends

AEO 2010 Reference Res Elec

AEO 2010 Reference Com Elec

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Commercial Electricity Price (AEO2010)

Reference

High

Low
Discount Rate

Distribution of Real Interest Rates REAL Gains and Losses for Various Assets

Export Parameters 1st Mortgage Home Equity Credit Card Installment Loans Other Residence Other LOC Savings CD - 6mo. Treasury Corp AAA Stocks Mutual

to: LCC Summary rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt rate wt Year Accounts CDs Sav Bonds Bonds S&P 500 Fund

Discount Rate 7.1% 0.5% 0.059 0.4% 0.089 0.0% 0.055 0.0% 0.345 0.2% 0.129 0.1% 0.043 1977 -0.6% 1.2% 1.4% -12.7% -8.0% 

DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) FOR REPLACEMENT/RETROFIT ONLY 1.6% 0.192 1.5% 0.084 1.4% 0.019 1.4% 0.020 1.5% 0.061 1.4% 0.033 1978 0.9% 0.8% 1.1% -1.0% -0.4% 

Finance Method Share Mean Min Max Sampled 2.5% 0.280 2.6% 0.154 2.5% 0.019 2.4% 0.040 2.5% 0.084 2.5% 0.014 1979 0.1% -1.9% -1.5% 6.4% 3.7% 

1 Home Equity Loans (after tax) 3.7% 3.0% 0.4% 42.5% 3.5% 3.5% 0.244 3.5% 0.257 3.5% 0.033 3.4% 0.053 3.5% 0.153 3.5% 0.044 1980 -0.5% -2.0% -1.4% 16.1% 10.1% 

2 Credit card 2.1% 3.9% 0.0% 36.9% 10.6% 4.4% 0.147 4.5% 0.180 4.5% 0.044 4.5% 0.057 4.5% 0.149 4.5% 0.065 1981 5.0% 2.8% 3.5% -13.6% -8.1% 

3 Other Installment Loans 1.6% 10.7% 0.0% 93.5% 3.4% 5.4% 0.043 5.4% 0.112 5.6% 0.061 5.6% 0.067 5.5% 0.177 5.5% 0.124 1982 6.0% 6.2% 7.2% 13.4% 11.0% 

4 Other Residence Loans 5.3% 6.0% 0.2% 17.9% 11.6% 6.4% 0.020 6.4% 0.047 6.7% 0.070 6.7% 0.075 6.5% 0.127 6.7% 0.094 1983 5.9% 7.7% 8.6% 18.5% 14.9% 

5 Other Line of Credit 0.5% 4.4% 0.1% 54.1% 17.3% 7.4% 0.007 7.5% 0.036 7.5% 0.040 7.5% 0.033 7.5% 0.059 7.6% 0.052 1984 5.5% 6.1% 7.8% 8.0% 1.8% 3.8% 

6 Checking Accounts 4.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 0.004 8.5% 0.019 8.7% 0.060 8.6% 0.040 8.6% 0.025 8.7% 0.090 1985 5.4% 4.5% 7.0% 7.5% 26.7% 20.1% 

7 Savings and Money Market 15.3% 2.3% 0.0% 4.0% 3.2% 9.5% 0.002 9.5% 0.009 9.6% 0.055 9.5% 0.037 9.4% 0.014 9.5% 0.089 1986 6.0% 4.6% 5.8% 7.0% 16.3% 12.8% 

8 CD (6 month) 8.6% 2.2% -1.1% 6.1% 1.6% 10.5% 0.001 10.6% 0.006 10.6% 0.052 10.6% 0.029 10.6% 0.004 10.5% 0.068 1987 3.3% 3.2% 4.8% 5.5% 2.1% 3.0% 

9 Savings Bonds (Treasury) 1.4% 3.4% -2.0% 7.8% 4.3% 11.6% 0.001 11.8% 0.002 11.5% 0.058 11.5% 0.019 11.6% 0.005 11.6% 0.063 1988 3.1% 3.6% 4.6% 5.4% 11.9% 9.5% 

10 Bonds (Corporate AAA) 9.5% 4.1% -1.5% 8.6% 0.1% 12.4% 0.001 12.7% 0.003 12.6% 0.049 12.5% 0.027 12.6% 0.004 12.5% 0.065 1989 3.0% 4.1% 3.5% 4.2% 25.4% 18.1% 

11 Stocks (S&P 500) 29.0% 7.7% -38.9% 33.4% 7.9% 13.5% 0.000 13.7% 0.000 13.6% 0.044 13.5% 0.019 14.7% 0.005 13.5% 0.019 1990 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 3.7% -8.0% -4.3% 

12 Mutual Funds (stock/bond) 18.6% 6.2% -25.8% 23.6% 2.9% 14.4% 0.000 14.7% 0.002 14.7% 0.087 14.7% 0.037 15.7% 0.001 14.7% 0.040 1991 2.7% 1.6% 3.8% 4.4% 25.0% 17.9% 

Total 100% 5.1% wt.avg. 4.6% 16.7% 0.000 16.7% 0.000 15.6% 0.074 15.6% 0.017 16.6% 0.003 15.6% 0.018 1992 2.1% 0.7% 4.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4% 

22.9% 0.000 17.5% 0.000 16.4% 0.055 16.5% 0.019 17.9% 0.001 16.5% 0.027 1993 1.1% 0.3% 3.5% 4.1% 6.8% 5.7% 

42.5% 0.001 17.6% 0.053 17.6% 0.019 17.3% 0.011 1994 1.3% 2.3% 4.7% 5.3% -1.2% 0.8% 

Finance Method # Sampled 12 18.5% 0.019 18.5% 0.012 18.5% 0.006 1995 2.2% 3.1% 3.9% 4.6% 33.4% 23.6% 

Real Interest Rate for that method 3% 19.4% 0.023 19.4% 0.007 19.1% 0.012 1996 2.0% 2.4% 3.6% 4.3% 20.3% 14.7% 

20.5% 0.012 20.5% 0.007 20.2% 0.009 1997 2.7% 3.4% 4.2% 4.9% 28.9% 20.7% 

21.4% 0.005 21.5% 0.005 21.5% 0.007 1998 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 4.9% 26.4% 18.9% 

DISCOUNT RATE (Real Interest Rate) 22.5% 0.003 22.3% 0.002 22.1% 0.002 1999 2.3% 3.2% 3.6% 4.7% 18.3% 13.4% 

Industry Sector Share Mean Min Max Std.Dev. sampled 23.6% 0.001 23.4% 0.003 23.5% 0.002 2000 1.7% 3.1% 2.5% 4.1% -12.0% -7.2% 

1 Lodging 29.11% 5.8% 2.4% 12.0% 1.3% 8.9% 24.6% 0.003 24.6% 0.004 25.4% 0.004 2001 1.8% 0.8% 2.6% 4.1% -14.3% -8.7% 

2 Other Commercial 70.89% 6.4% 2.5% 15.7% 1.7% 7.1% 25.5% 0.003 25.3% 0.003 54.1% 0.002 2002 1.3% 0.2% 3.8% 4.8% -23.2% -14.2% 

Total wt.avg. 6.2% wt.avg. 7.6% 26.3% 0.002 26.6% 0.000 2003 -0.2% -1.1% 2.6% 3.3% 25.6% 17.9% 

27.3% 0.000 27.8% 0.000 2004 -0.7% -0.9% 2.3% 2.9% 7.8% 6.0%

Finance Method # Sampled 2 28.4% 0.000 28.5% 0.000 2005 -0.1% 0.3% 1.2% 1.8% 1.4% 1.3%

Real Interest Rate for that method 7.1% 29.3% 0.000 29.3% 0.001 2006 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 2.3% 12.0% 8.6%

36.9% 0.000 34.1% 0.000 2007 2.0% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%

36.1% 0.000 2008 0.2% -0.7% 0.4% 1.7% -38.9% -25.8%

43.6% 0.000 2009 3.6% 1.2% 4.5% 5.7% 26.4% 19.1%

44.3% 0.000 Avg. 2.3% 2.2% 3.4% 4.1% 7.7% 6.2%

47.2% 0.000 2 X Avg. 4.5% 4.5% 6.7% 8.2% 15.3% 12.5%

93.5% 0.000 Min -0.7% -1.1% -2.0% -1.5% -38.9% -25.8%

3.0% 100% 3.9% 100% 10.7% 100% 6.0% 100% 4.4% 100% 8.8% 100% Max 6.0% 6.1% 7.8% 8.6% 33.4% 23.6%

0.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Std. Dev. 1.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 16.9% 11.5%

22.9% 42.5% 36.9% 93.5% 17.9% 54.1% Source: Golden West Financial Corporation, Federal Reserve, and Demodaran Online

1.6% 3.5% 10.6% 3.4% 11.6% 17.3% 

Sources: Estimate using 1989, 1992, 1998, 1998, 2001, 2004, and 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances
Lifetime back to Summary

Export Parameters

to: LCC Summary

Lifetime 3.8 years

Weibull Parameters:

Scale 5.75

Shape 1.75

Delay 0

Dist. 3.8

Graph Values

Age % Retiring % Surviving

0.0 0.00% 100.00%

1.0 7.82% 92.18%

2.0 11.78% 80.40%

3.0 13.56% 66.84%

4.0 13.65% 53.19%

5.0 12.53% 40.67%

6.0 10.70% 29.97%

7.0 8.60% 21.37%

8.0 6.56% 14.81%

9.0 4.76% 10.04%

10.0 3.31% 6.73%

11.0 2.20% 4.53%

12.0 1.41% 3.12%

13.0 0.87% 2.25%

14.0 0.52% 1.73%

15.0 0.30% 1.44%

16.0 0.16% 1.27%

17.0 0.09% 1.19%

18.0 0.05% 1.14%

19.0 0.02% 1.12%

20.0 0.01% 1.11%

21.0 0.01% 1.10%

22.0 0.00% 1.10%

23.0 0.00% 1.10%

24.0 0.00% 1.10%

25.0 0.00% 1.10%

26.0 0.00% 1.10%

27.0 0.00% 1.10%

28.0 0.00% 1.10%

29.0 0.00% 1.10%

30.0 0.00% 1.10%

31.0 0.00% 1.10%

32.0 0.00% 1.10%

33.0 0.00% 1.10%

34.0 0.00% 1.10%

35.0 0.00% 1.10%

36.0 0.00% 1.10%

37.0 0.00% 1.10%

38.0 1.10% 0.00%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0


5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

% Surviving

% Retiring












Equation for calculating Standards back to Summary

UEC = c * AV + d

1990 Standards Jan-1-1993 Standards

Product 

Class c d c

0 NA

1 Refrigerator & Refrigerator-Freezer with manual defrost 13.5

2 Refrigerator & Refrigerator-Freezer with partial automatic defrost 10.4

3 Top Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 23.5 471 16.0

4 Side Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 27.7 488 11.8

5 Bottom Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 27.7 488 16.5

6 Top Mount Freezer with through-the-door ice 26.4 535 17.6

7 Side Mount Freezer with through-the-door ice 30.9 547 16.3

8 Upright Freezer with manual defrost 10.3

9 Compact Refrig. and Refrig.-Freezer with manual defrost 16.0 623 14.9

10 Chest Freezers 14.8 233 11.0

11 Compact Refrig. and Refrig.-Freezer with manual defrost 13.5

12 Compact Refrigerator and Refrigerator-Freezer with partial automatic defrost 10.4

13 Compact Top-Mount Refrig.-Freezer with Auto Defrost 16.0

14 Compact Refrigerator-side mounted freezer with automatic defrost 11.8

15 Compact Refrigerator-bottom mount Freezer with automatic defrost 16.5

16 Compact Upright Freezer with manual defrost 10.3

17 Compact Upright Freezer with automatic defrost 14.9

18 Compact Chest Freezers 10.3
Jan-1-1993 Standards Jul-1-2001 Standards

d c d

299 8.82 248.4

398 8.82 248.4

355 9.80 276.0

501 4.91 507.5

367 4.60 459.0

391 10.20 356.0

527 10.10 406.0

264 7.55 258.3

391 12.43 326.1

160 9.88 143.7

299 10.70 299.0

398 7.00 398.0

355 12.70 355.0

501 7.60 501.0

367 13.10 367.0

264 9.78 250.8

391 11.40 391.0

264 10.45 152.0
Equation for calculating Adjusted Volume back to Summary

Adjusted Volume = a * vol + b

Product 

Class a b

3 Top Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 1.2205 -1.1049

5 Bottom Mount Freezer without through-the-door ice 1.1851 0.0159

7 Side Mount Freezer with through-the-door ice 1.3170 -1.9992

11 Compact Refrig. and Refrig.-Freezer with manual defrost 1.0458 -0.0905

Source: CEC Database
R

2

0.9691

0.9929

0.9906

0.9822