San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### 2012 PM2.5 Plan

SJVUAPCD 

# Appendix B

Emissions InventorySan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012

Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### This page intentionally blank.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 1 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

## Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

Emissions inventories are estimates of the amount and type of pollutants emitted into

the atmosphere by industrial faciliti es, mobile sources, and smaller sources such as

consumer products and paint. Emissions inventories serve as 1) a primary input to air

quality modeling used in attainment demonstrations; 2) the emissions data used for

developing control strategies; and 3) a means to track progress in meeting the emission

reduction commitments. The inventories in this a ppendix are used to study and

propose control measures, to track emissions for Rate of Progress (ROP), to track

Emissions Reduction Credits (ERCs), to establ ish motor vehicle conformity budgets for

transportation planning, and to assist in demonstrating attainment.

An emissions inventory is a critical tool in the evaluation of air pollution. In simple

terms, an emissions inventory is a systematic listing o f the sources of air pollution along

with the amount of pollution emitted from each source or category over a given time

period. Emissions inventories are an estimate of the air pollution emissions that are

actually released into the environment

— they are not measurements of ambient

concentrations. The following are examples of pollution sources by key sectors:

 Industrial or stationary point sources

— power plants and oil refineries;

 Area

- wide sources

— consumer products and residential fuel combustion;

 On

- road sources

— passenger vehicles and heavy

- duty trucks;

 Off

- road mobile sources

— aircraft, trains, ships, recreational boats, construction

equipment and farm equipment; and

 Nonanthropogenic (natural) sources

— biogenic (or vegetation), geogenic

(petroleum seeps), and wildfires.

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) establishes

requirements pertaining to emissions information that must be included as part of the

SIP submittal package. For the PM2.5 Plan, the regulations require that the emissions

inventory contain emissions data for directly emitted PM2.5 and its precursors: oxides of

nitrogen (NOx), reactive organic gases (ROG), sulfur oxides (SOx), and

ammonia (NH3).

As discussed in Appendix A and throughout this plan, the Valley’s attainment

challenges under the national 24

- hour PM2.5 standard set in 2006 occur in the winter

months. For this reason, t his plan focuses on winter average daily emissions

inventories, with emissions presented as tons per day (tpd). This w inter average daily

inventory represents emissions from the months of November to April

.

Emissions inventories are usually developed at various geographical resolutions

encompassing district, air basin, and county levels. The inventories presented in this

a ppendix are the total emissions for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 2 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### This a ppendix includes emissions for the San Joaquin Valley Air Basin for the years

200 7 , 20 12 , 20 14 , 201 5 , 201 6 , 201 7

, 2018, and 201 9 . The base year (the year from

which the inventory is proj ected forward and backward) for these inventories is 200 7

. The year 20 12 has been included as a reference point for the current year. Years 2014

and 2019 have been included as 2014 is the attainment deadline for the 1997 federal

PM2.5 standard, and 2019 is the longest attainment timeframe allowed under the 2006

federal PM2.5 standard. Naturally, the years in between 2014 and 2019 have been

included to show the progression of th e inventory.

The tables in this appendix include:

 Table B

- 1 Directly emitt ed PM2.5, Winter Daily Averages

 Table B

- 2 NOx, Winter Daily Averages

 Table B

- 3 SO x , Winter Daily Averages

 Table B

- 4 VOC, Winter Daily Averages

 Table B

- 5 Ammonia, Winter Daily Averages

Tables B

- 1 through B

- 5 are followed by an overview of emissions invento ry calculations

and revisions, as well as a discussion on population projections that influence the

emissions inventory.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 3 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### B. 1 EMISSIONS INVENTORY TABLES

Table B

- 1 Directly Emitted PM2.5 (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day )

Directly Emitted PM2.5 (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

STATIONARY SOURCES

FUEL COMBUSTION

ELECTRIC UTILITIES 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3

COGENERATION 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

(COMBUSTION) 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5

PETROLEUM REFINING (COMBUSTION) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL

PROCESSING 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

OTHER (FUEL COMBUSTION) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL FUEL COMBUSTION 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9

WASTE DISPOSAL

SEWAGE TREATMENT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LANDFILLS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

INCINERATORS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SOIL REMEDIATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (WASTE DISPOSAL) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL WASTE DISPOSAL 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

CLEANING AND SURFACE COATINGS

LAUNDERING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DEGREASING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

COATINGS AND RELATED PROCESS

SOLVENTS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

PRINTING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND MARKETING

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM REFINING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

PETROLEUM MARKETING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 4 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan Directly Emitted PM2.5 (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

* TOTAL PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND

MARKETING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

CHEMICAL 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

MINERAL PROCESSES 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8

METAL PROCESSES 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

WOOD AND PAPER 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

GLASS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

ELECTRONICS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7

** TOTAL STATIONARY SOURCES 9.4 8.7 8.8 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0 9.0

AREA

- WIDE SOURCES

SOLVENT EVAPORATION

CONSUMER PRODUCTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS AND

RELATED PROCESS SOLVENTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PESTICIDES/FERTILIZERS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ASPHALT PAVING / ROOFING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL SOLVENT EVAPORATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES

RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 21.5 9.4 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1

FARMING OPERATIONS 12.0 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.6

CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1

PAVED ROAD DUST 4.8 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5

UNPAVED ROAD DUST 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.4

FUGITIVE WINDBLOWN DUST 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6

FIRES 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

MANAGED BURNING AND DISPOSAL 10.1 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.3

COOKING 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.1

OTHER (MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES 62.5 47.1 46.7 46.7 46.8 46.8 46.8 46.8

** TOTAL AREA

- WIDE SOURCES 62.5 47.1 46.7 46.7 46.8 46.8 46.8 46.8

MOBILE SOURCES

ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES

LIGHT DUTY PASSENGER (LDA) 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 1 (LDT1) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 2 (LDT2) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 5 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan Directly Emitted PM2.5 (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MEDIUM DUTY TRUCKS (MDV) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 1

(LHDV1) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 2

(LHDV2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

(MHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

(HHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

- 1

(LHDV1) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

- 2

(LHDV2) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

(MHDV) 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

(HHDV) 5.8 3.8 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.4

MOTORCYCLES (MCY) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY DUTY DIESEL URBAN BUSES

(UB) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

HEAVY DUTY GAS URBAN BUSES (UB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SCHOOL BUSES (SB) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER BUSES (OB) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MOTOR HOMES (MH) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES 9.1 6.7 4.8 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3

OTHER MOBILE SOURCES

AIRCRAFT 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6

TRAINS 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

RECREATIONAL BOATS 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

OFF

- ROAD RECREATIONAL VEHICLES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OFF

- ROAD EQUIPMENT 2.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9

FARM EQUIPMENT 2.1 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8

FUEL STORAGE AND HANDLING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 6.1 4.6 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.8

** TOTAL MOBILE SOURCES 15.2 11.3 8.9 8.4 8.0 7.8 7.7 8.1

GRAND TOTAL FOR SAN JOAQUIN

VALLEY 87.1 67.1 64.4 63.9 63.6 63.5 63.4 64.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 6 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Table B

- 2 NOx (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day )

NOx (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

STATIONARY SOURCES

FUEL COMBUSTION

ELECTRIC UTILITIES 7.1 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7

COGENERATION 3.0 1.6 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.0

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

(COMBUSTION) 3.5 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.4

PETROLEUM REFINING

(COMBUSTION) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

MANUFACTURING AND

INDUSTRIAL 5.1 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7

FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL

PROCESSING 12.7 7.5 7.1 5.1 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.2

SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL 4.0 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6

OTHER (FUEL COMBUSTION) 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

* TOTAL FUEL COMBUSTION 36.6 25.9 25.3 23.1 22.0 21.9 21.8 21.7

WASTE DISPOSAL

SEWAGE TREATMENT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LANDFILLS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2

INCINERATORS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

SOIL REMEDIATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (WASTE DISPOSAL) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL WASTE DISPOSAL 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

CLEANING AND SURFACE COATINGS

LAUNDERING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DEGREASING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

COATINGS AND RELATED

PROCESS SOLVENTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PRINTING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND MARKETING

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

PETROLEUM REFINING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

PETROLEUM MARKETING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 7 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan NOx (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

* TOTAL PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

CHEMICAL 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MINERAL PROCESSES 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

METAL PROCESSES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

WOOD AND PAPER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

GLASS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 7.8 6.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4

ELECTRONICS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 8.4 6.7 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0

** TOTAL STATIONARY SOURCES 45.6 33.1 30.5 28.4 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.3

AREA

- WIDE SOURCES

SOLVENT EVAPORATION

CONSUMER PRODUCTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS AND

RELATED PROCESS SOLVENTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PESTICIDES/FERTILIZERS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ASPHALT PAVING / ROOFING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL SOLVENT EVAPORATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES

RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 12.0 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.4 10.4 10.5

FARMING OPERATIONS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

UNPAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FUGITIVE WINDBLOWN DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FIRES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MANAGED BURNING AND

DISPOSAL 7.1 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2

COOKING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (MISCELLANEOUS

PROCESSES) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS

PROCESSES 19.0 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7

** TOTAL AREA

- WIDE SOURCES 19.0 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.7

MOBILE SOURCES

ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES

LIGHT DUTY PASSENGER (LDA) 18.8 11.3 8.6 7.6 6.9 6.1 5.6 5.2San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 8 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan NOx (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 1 (LDT1) 6.3 3.8 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 2 (LDT2) 13.1 8.3 6.3 5.6 5.0 4.4 3.9 3.6

MEDIUM DUTY TRUCKS (MDV) 16.8 13.3 11.4 10.6 9.9 9.2 8.7 8.1

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 1 (LHDV1) 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.0 3.9

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 2 (LHDV2) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY GAS

TRUCKS (MHDV) 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

(HHDV) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS

- 1 (LHDV1) 15.2 12.0 10.5 9.9 9.3 8.7 8.1 7.7

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS

- 2 (LHDV2) 3.7 2.9 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS (MHDV) 19.7 13.0 11.9 10.6 9.7 8.8 8.1 7.3

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS (HHDV) 187.4 106.0 91.2 80.9 72.3 66.5 61.8 58.4

MOTORCYCLES (MCY) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

HEAVY DUTY DIESEL URBAN

BUSES (UB) 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8

HEAVY DUTY GAS URBAN BUSES

(UB) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

SCHOOL BUSES (SB) 1.5 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0

OTHER BUSES (OB) 2.3 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9

MOTOR HOMES (MH) 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5

* TOTAL ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES 296.5 184.1 157.9 142.5 129.5 119.6 111.4 104.9

OTHER MOBILE SOURCES

AIRCRAFT 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 5.0

TRAINS 21.7 16.4 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.5

SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

RECREATIONAL BOATS 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

OFF

- ROAD RECREATIONAL

VEHICLES 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

OFF

- ROAD EQUIPMENT 40.2 27.2 25.8 25.3 24.4 23.7 22.2 21.2

FARM EQUIPMENT 37.7 28.7 24.7 22.8 21.0 19.5 17.9 16.4

FUEL STORAGE AND HANDLING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 103.9 76.6 71.7 69.4 66.7 64.3 61.0 60.6

** TOTAL MOBILE SOURCES 400.5 260.7 229.6 211.9 196.3 183.9 172.4 165.5

GRAND TOTAL FOR SAN JOAQUIN

VALLEY 465.1 309.4 275.7 255.9 239.3 226.9 215.4 208.5San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 9 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Table B

- 3 SOx (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

SOx (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

STATIONARY SOURCES

FUEL COMBUSTION

ELECTRIC UTILITIES 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4

COGENERATION 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

(COMBUSTION) 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

PETROLEUM REFINING (COMBUSTION) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

MANUFACTURING AND INDUSTRIAL 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL

PROCESSING 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

OTHER (FUEL COMBUSTION) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL FUEL COMBUSTION 5.6 4.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4

WASTE DISPOSAL

SEWAGE TREATMENT 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

LANDFILLS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

INCINERATORS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SOIL REMEDIATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (WASTE DISPOSAL) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL WASTE DISPOSAL 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

CLEANING AND SURFACE COATINGS

LAUNDERING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DEGREASING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

COATINGS AND RELATED PROCESS

SOLVENTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PRINTING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND MARKETING

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM REFINING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

PETROLEUM MARKETING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 10 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan SOx (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

* TOTAL PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND

MARKETING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

CHEMICAL 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

MINERAL PROCESSES 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4

METAL PROCESSES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

WOOD AND PAPER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

GLASS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 3.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9

ELECTRONICS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 4.6 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4

** TOTAL STATIONARY SOURCES 10.4 7.7 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.1

AREA

- WIDE SOURCES

SOLVENT EVAPORATION

CONSUMER PRODUCTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS AND

RELATED PROCESS SOLVENTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PESTICIDES/FERTILIZERS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ASPHALT PAVING / ROOFING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL SOLVENT EVAPORATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES

RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

FARMING OPERATIONS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

UNPAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FUGITIVE WINDBLOWN DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FIRES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MANAGED BURNING AND DISPOSAL 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

COOKING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

** TOTAL AREA

- WIDE SOURCES 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

MOBILE SOURCES

ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES

LIGHT DUTY PASSENGER (LDA) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 1 (LDT1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 11 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan SOx (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 2 (LDT2) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

MEDIUM DUTY TRUCKS (MDV) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 1

(LHDV1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 2

(LHDV2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

(MHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

(HHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

- 1

(LHDV1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

- 2

(LHDV2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

(MHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS

(HHDV) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

MOTORCYCLES (MCY) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY DUTY DIESEL URBAN BUSES

(UB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY DUTY GAS URBAN BUSES (UB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SCHOOL BUSES (SB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER BUSES (OB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MOTOR HOMES (MH) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8

OTHER MOBILE SOURCES

AIRCRAFT 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5

TRAINS 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

RECREATIONAL BOATS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OFF

- ROAD RECREATIONAL VEHICLES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OFF

- ROAD EQUIPMENT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FARM EQUIPMENT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FUEL STORAGE AND HANDLING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6

** TOTAL MOBILE SOURCES 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4

GRAND TOTAL FOR SAN JOAQUIN

VALLEY 12.8 9.4 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.8 8.9 9.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 12 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Table B

- 4 VOC (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

VOC (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

STATIONARY SOURCES

FUEL COMBUSTION

ELECTRIC UTILITIES 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

COGENERATION 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

(COMBUSTION) 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1

PETROLEUM REFINING

(COMBUSTION) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

MANUFACTURING AND

INDUSTRIAL 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL

PROCESSING 1.2 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

OTHER (FUEL COMBUSTION) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

* TOTAL FUEL COMBUSTION 4.0 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9

WASTE DISPOSAL

SEWAGE TREATMENT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LANDFILLS 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

INCINERATORS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SOIL REMEDIATION 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

OTHER (WASTE DISPOSAL) 23.1 19.3 20.1 20.5 20.9 20.6 21.0 21.4

* TOTAL WASTE DISPOSAL 24.6 21.0 21.8 22.2 22.7 22.3 22.7 23.2

CLEANING AND SURFACE COATINGS

LAUNDERING 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

DEGREASING 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6

COATINGS AND RELATED

PROCESS SOLVENTS 7.3 7.8 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.7 8.9 9.1

PRINTING 4.4 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6

ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

OTHER (CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS) 3.6 4.2 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9

* TOTAL CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS 17.6 19.1 20.0 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.5 21.8

PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND MARKETING

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION 28.5 25.2 24.1 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5

PETROLEUM REFINING 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1

PETROLEUM MARKETING 6.7 7.3 7.5 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.3

OTHER (PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 13 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan VOC (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

* TOTAL PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING 36.3 33.6 32.7 32.4 32.0 31.6 31.3 31.0

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

CHEMICAL 3.4 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 9.5 10.4 10.8 11.0 11.2 11.4 11.6 11.9

MINERAL PROCESSES 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

METAL PROCESSES 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

WOOD AND PAPER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

GLASS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELECTRONICS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 13.7 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.9

** TOTAL STATIONARY SOURCES 96.2 91.0 92.3 92.8 93.4 93.2 94.0 94.7

AREA

- WIDE SOURCES

SOLVENT EVAPORATION

CONSUMER PRODUCTS 22.8 21.0 20.6 20.8 21.2 21.5 21.9 22.2

ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS AND

RELATED PROCESS SOLVENTS 9.8 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.2

PESTICIDES/FERTILIZERS 18.1 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.0

ASPHALT PAVING / ROOFING 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9

* TOTAL SOLVENT EVAPORATION 51.5 46.0 45.6 45.9 46.2 46.5 46.9 47.2

MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES

RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 21.9 10.7 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2

FARMING OPERATIONS 130.6 103.5 105.8 107.0 108.1 109.2 110.4 111.5

CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

UNPAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FUGITIVE WINDBLOWN DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FIRES 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

MANAGED BURNING AND

DISPOSAL 8.5 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.4 6.3

COOKING 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

OTHER (MISCELLANEOUS

PROCESSES) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS

PROCESSES 161.7 121.4 123.1 124.2 125.4 126.5 127.6 128.8

** TOTAL AREA

- WIDE SOURCES 213.2 167.4 168.7 170.1 171.6 173.1 174.5 176.0

MOBILE SOURCES

ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES

LIGHT DUTY PASSENGER (LDA) 20.2 13.2 8.8 7.7 6.8 5.9 5.2 4.7San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 14 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan VOC (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 1 (LDT1) 7.0 4.9 3.6 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 2.4

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 2 (LDT2) 8.9 6.8 4.9 4.4 4.0 3.5 3.2 3.0

MEDIUM DUTY TRUCKS (MDV) 8.5 8.4 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.3 6.1 6.0

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 1 (LHDV1) 3.8 3.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 2 (LHDV2) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY GAS

TRUCKS (MHDV) 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

(HHDV) 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS

- 1 (LHDV1) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS

- 2 (LHDV2) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS (MHDV) 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS (HHDV) 9.8 6.4 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.4

MOTORCYCLES (MCY) 4.2 3.7 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1

HEAVY DUTY DIESEL URBAN

BUSES (UB) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

HEAVY DUTY GAS URBAN BUSES 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

SCHOOL BUSES (SB) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

OTHER BUSES (OB) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1

MOTOR HOMES (MH) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES 67.3 50.5 37.5 34.7 32.4 30.4 28.8 27.7

OTHER MOBILE SOURCES

AIRCRAFT 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 6.0

TRAINS 1.6 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

RECREATIONAL BOATS 3.6 2.9 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2

OFF

- ROAD RECREATIONAL

VEHICLES 3.7 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7

OFF

- ROAD EQUIPMENT 13.8 10.2 9.3 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.1

FARM EQUIPMENT 8.0 5.9 4.9 4.5 4.1 3.7 3.4 3.1

FUEL STORAGE AND HANDLING 3.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3

* TOTAL OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 38.0 28.9 26.5 25.6 24.7 23.9 23.1 24.2

** TOTAL MOBILE SOURCES 105.3 79.4 64.0 60.3 57.1 54.3 52.0 51.9

GRAND TOTAL FOR SAN JOAQUIN

VALLEY 414.8 337.8 324.9 323.2 322.0 320.6 320.5 322.6San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 15 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Table B

- 5 Ammonia (Winter Daily Averages in tons per day)

AMMONIA (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

STATIONARY SOURCES

FUEL COMBUSTION

ELECTRIC UTILITIES 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7

COGENERATION 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION

(COMBUSTION) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM REFINING

(COMBUSTION) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MANUFACTURING AND

INDUSTRIAL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL

PROCESSING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (FUEL COMBUSTION) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL FUEL COMBUSTION 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

WASTE DISPOSAL

SEWAGE TREATMENT 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

LANDFILLS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

INCINERATORS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SOIL REMEDIATION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (WASTE DISPOSAL) 17.9 19.3 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.1

* TOTAL WASTE DISPOSAL 17.9 19.3 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 22.2

CLEANING AND SURFACE COATINGS

LAUNDERING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

DEGREASING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

COATINGS AND RELATED

PROCESS SOLVENTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PRINTING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ADHESIVES AND SEALANTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL CLEANING AND SURFACE

COATINGS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM PRODUCTION AND MARKETING

OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM REFINING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PETROLEUM MARKETING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 16 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan AMMONIA (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

* TOTAL PETROLEUM PRODUCTION

AND MARKETING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES

CHEMICAL 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MINERAL PROCESSES 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

METAL PROCESSES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

WOOD AND PAPER 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

GLASS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

ELECTRONICS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0

** TOTAL STATIONARY SOURCES 19.8 21.0 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.1 23.5 24.0

AREA

- WIDE SOURCES

SOLVENT EVAPORATION

CONSUMER PRODUCTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS AND

RELATED PROCESS SOLVENTS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PESTICIDES/FERTILIZERS 68.4 66.9 66.3 66.1 65.8 65.5 65.2 64.9

ASPHALT PAVING / ROOFING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL SOLVENT EVAPORATION 68.4 66.9 66.3 66.1 65.8 65.5 65.2 64.9

MISCELLANEOUS PROCESSES

RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 1.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

FARMING OPERATIONS 264.5 225.4 234.6 239.2 243.8 248.4 253.0 257.6

CONSTRUCTION AND DEMOLITION 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

PAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

UNPAVED ROAD DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FUGITIVE WINDBLOWN DUST 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FIRES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MANAGED BURNING AND

DISPOSAL 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0

COOKING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER (MISCELLANEOUS

PROCESSES) 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.3 7.5 7.6

* TOTAL MISCELLANEOUS

PROCESSES 273.7 234.0 243.4 248.1 252.8 257.5 262.2 267.0

** TOTAL AREA

- WIDE SOURCES 342.2 300.9 309.7 314.2 318.6 323.0 327.4 331.9

MOBILE SOURCES

ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES

LIGHT DUTY PASSENGER (LDA) 1.8 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control Distri ct Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 17 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan AMMONIA (tpd)

SUMMARY CATEGORY NAME WINTER AVERAGE

2007 2012 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 1 (LDT1) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

LIGHT DUTY TRUCKS

- 2 (LDT2) 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7

MEDIUM DUTY TRUCKS (MDV) 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.2

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 1 (LHDV1) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

- 2 (LHDV2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY GAS

TRUCKS (MHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY GAS TRUCKS

(HHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS

- 1 (LHDV1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

LIGHT HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS

- 2 (LHDV2) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MEDIUM HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS (MHDV) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1

HEAVY HEAVY DUTY DIESEL

TRUCKS (HHDV) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

MOTORCYCLES (MCY) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY DUTY DIESEL URBAN

BUSES (UB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

HEAVY DUTY GAS URBAN BUSES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SCHOOL BUSES (SB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OTHER BUSES (OB) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

MOTOR HOMES (MH) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL ON

- ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES 5.3 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.2

OTHER MOBILE SOURCES

AIRCRAFT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

TRAINS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

RECREATIONAL BOATS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OFF

- ROAD RECREATIONAL

VEHICLES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

OFF

- ROAD EQUIPMENT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FARM EQUIPMENT 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

FUEL STORAGE AND HANDLING 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

* TOTAL OTHER MOBILE SOURCES 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

** TOTAL MOBILE SOURCES 5.4 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2

GRAND TOTAL FOR SAN JOAQUIN

VALLEY 367.3 326.6 336.0 340.7 345.5 350.4 355.2 360.1San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 18 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### B. 2 EMISSIONS INVENTORY CALCULATIONS AND REVISIONS

ARB and the District continually collect information and conduct research to improve the

emission estimates. During development of this Plan, both agencies allocated

substantial resources to the improvement of the emissions inventory. In the two

- year

span leading to the release of the draft Plan, ARB headed a workgroup that focused on

updating the inventory data in ARB’s database. ARB and District staff con ducted a

thorough review of the inventory to ensure that the emission estimates reflected

accurate emission reports for point sources, and that estimates for mobile and area

wide sources were based on the most recent methodologies. In cases where area

- wid e

source methodologies were deemed to be out

- of date ( i.e. , if new emission factors or

more recent activity data were available), the methodologies were updated. The

updates were prioritized based on the overall contribution of each emission category to

t he total inventory for key pollutants (directly emitted PM2.5, NOx, SOx, VOCs, and

ammonia).

ARB also conducts periodic evaluations and updates of the growth profiles to ensure

that the emission forecasts are based on data that reflect historical trends, current

conditions, and recent forecasts. The most significant challenge for this Plan was to

ensure that the growth projections reflected the economic recession. Staff conducted a

category

- by

- category review and update of the growth profile data for all the categories

that, in aggregate, comprise more than 95 percent of the NOx, SOx, or PM2.5

emissions. To capture the effects of the recession, staff ensured that the growth

profiles included historical data through at least 2008 (data through 2009 or 201 0 were

included when available). Growth forecasts for the years 2009 and beyond were

obtained primarily from government entities with expertise in developing forecasts for

specific sectors, or in some cases, from econometric models.

In addition this comp rehensive emissions inventory update process, modeling of the

24

- hour PM2.5 standard requires detailed information on the timing and locations of

emission sources on the most severe air quality days. This poses a unique challenge to

translate regional, a nnual emission estimates into the temporal and spatial resolution

needed for 24

- hour modeling. An iterative process was used as a means to refine the

modeling emission inputs to better reflect observed conditions expected at a local, 24

-

hour scale. Model

- simulated concentrations were compared with chemical species

present in the ambient monitoring data, maps of emission sources known to surround

the monitoring stations, and temporal trends in the monitoring data. This led to further

updates in the spatia l and temporal emissions data used in the modeling.

ARB and District staff worked jointly to develop a comprehensive emissions inventory

for the 2012 PM2.5 Plan . The District worked closely with operators of major stationary

facilities in their juris diction to develop the point source emission estimates. The District

was also responsible for developing emission estimates for approximately one

- third of

the nonpoint (or area

- wide) sources

, such as commercial cooking and agricultural

burning.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 19 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### ARB staff developed the emission inventory for the mobile sources (both on

- road and

off

- road) and the remaining two

- thirds of the area

- wide sources. ARB worked with

several state and local agencies such as the Department of Transportation (Caltrans),

the Departmen t of Motor Vehicles (DMV), the Department of Pesticide Regulation

(DPR), the California Energy Commission (CEC), and local councils of government

(COGs) to assemble activity information necessary to develop the mobile and area

- wide

source emission estimate s.

B.2.1 Base Year Inventory

The base year inventory is an essential element of the Plan that forms the basis for all

future year projections and also establishes the emission levels against which progress

in emission reductions will be measured. U.S. E PA regulations establish general

guidelines for selecting an inventory base year. Based on those guidelines, ARB and

the District selected 2007 as the base year for this Plan. The design values recorded in

2007 were some of the highest in recent years. In addition, analysis of the impacts of

meteorology on PM2.5 levels in the Valley over the last ten years indicate that the 2007

meteorology was one of the most conducive to PM2.5 formation. Thus, the selection of

2007 represents a health protective appro ach to the attainment demonstration.

B.2.2 Emission Forecasts

In addition to a base year inventory, U.S. EPA regulations require future year

inventories for specific milestone years. ARB develops emission forecasts for point and

area

- wide sources by applying growth and control factors to the base year inventory to

account for year

- to

- year changes resulting from anticipated trends in economic

conditions and population growth, and the ef fects of adopted emission control rules.

Growth factors are expressed as a ratio of the expected activity level in a future year

relative to the base year. For point and area

- wide sources, growth factors are derived

from surrogates such as economic activ ity, fuel usage, population, dwelling

- units, etc.,

that best reflect the expected growth or decline rates for each specific source category.

Control factors are percentages representing the extent to which a source category is

controlled. These factors a re derived from data provided by the regulatory agencies

responsible for the affected emission categories. Developing control factors enables

agencies to take appropriate credit for adopted rules and regulations that reduce

emissions, remove exemptions, o r improve compliance.

Mobile source projections are generated by emission models that employ sophisticated

routines that predict vehicle fleet turnover by vehicle model year. As with stationary

sources, the mobile source models include control algori thms that account for all

adopted regulatory actions.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 20 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### B.2.3 Annual, Seasonal, and Modeling Inventories

Annual and seasonal emissions inventories, often referred to as planning inventories,

are typically produced at a county or air basin level of resolutio n. Annual emissions

inventories represent the total emissions over an entire year (tons per year), or a simple

average of annual emissions divided by 365 days (tons per day).

Seasonal inventories (summer and winter) account for temporal activity variatio ns

throughout the year, as determined by actual data from point source facilities or by

temporal profiles developed for area and mobile sources. Summer inventories include

emissions from May to October, and winter inventories encompass November through

Ap ril. Because PM2.5 concentrations in the Valley are at their highest during the winter,

the Plan’s attainment demonstration is based on the winter inventory.

Modeling inventories (also referred to as gridded inventories), are estimated at finer

spatial a nd temporal scales than planning inventories. Modeling inventories are used to

support hour

- by

- hour, grid

- based calculations of ambient pollutant concentrations. As a

result, these inventories must characterize hourly emissions from all sources (stationa ry

point, area

- wide, mobile, and biogenic) located within each grid cell for the region and

time being simulated. Modeling inventories account for day

- specific variations within

grid cells (such as actual plant shut

- downs or wildfires) and the effects of meteorological

conditions on emission rates ( e.g. , the hour

- specific ambient temperature effects on

biogenic or evaporative emission releases). A more in

- depth discussion of the temporal

and spatial adjustments made to the Valley’s modeling inventory is p resented in the

Modeling Protocol.

B.2.4 Quality Assurance and Quality Control

ARB has established a quality assurance and quality control (QA/QC) process to ensure

the integrity and accuracy of the emissions inventories used in the development of air

qua lity plans. Emission inventory staff perform comprehensive QA/QC checks to

confirm that inventory inputs have been reliably prepared and approved for use in

photochemical modeling. This process involves collaboration among ARB and air

district staff to d evelop base and future year emission estimates

.

QA/QC occurs at the various stages of SIP emission inventory development. Base year

emissions are assembled and maintained in the California Emission Inventory

Development and Reporting System (CEIDARS). Inventory staff work with air districts,

who are responsible for developing and reporting point source emission estimates, to

verify these data are accurate. The locations of point sources, including stacks, are

checked to ensure they are valid. Area

- wid e source emission estimates are developed

by ARB staff as well as some air districts. The methodologies for estimating these are

reviewed by ARB and district staff before their inclusion in the emission inventory.

Additionally, CEIDARS is designed with a utomatic system checks to prevent errors such

as double counting of emission sources. The system also makes various reports

available to assist staff in their efforts to identify and reconcile anomalous emissions.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 21 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Future year emissions are estimated usin g the California Emission Forecasting and

Planning Inventory System (CEFS). Growth and control factors are reviewed for each

category and year along with the resulting emission projections. Year to year trends are

compared to similar and past datasets to ensure general consistency. Emissions for

specific categories are checked to confirm they reflect the anticipated effects of

applicable control measures. Mobile categories are verified with mobile source staff for

consistency with the on

- and off

- road e mission models (EMFAC and OFFROAD).

Prior to input into the air quality model, the spatial and temporal parameters applied to

the emissions are checked. Monthly, weekly, and diurnal emission profiles are

examined to ensure they appear reasonable for the category. Emissions are again

summarized by region (county, air basin, and district), category, and pollutant to confirm

their consistency with the overall inventory.

As modeling results become available, the results are used to further validate the

inventory. The modeled concentrations in a particular grid cell are reviewed for

consistency with the types of sources present nearby in the emission inventory.

Additionally, the inclusion of air quality monitor data, when available, is used to reaffirm

that the types and magnitude of upwind sources are accounted for in the inventory.

B.3 EMISSIONS INVENTORY IMPROVEMENTS

A summary of the major revisions that have been incorporated into the PM2.5 Plan

emissions inventory is presented below.

B.3.1 Station ary Sources

Emission estimates from stationary sources (industrial point sources) are routinely

updated on an annual basis by the District. District staff works with facility operators to

ensure that emissions are reported accurately and in a timely mann er. The point source

emissions inventory for this PM2.5 Plan was compiled from emissions data reported by

District staff for the year 2007.

Once the base year emissions are compiled by the District, ARB staff uses the base

year inventory to forecast emis sions into the future using relevant growth and control

factors. Key updates to growth assumptions for stationary sources are discussed

below.

Stationary Source Growth Assumptions and Methodology Updates

The growth profiles for key industrial categories were updated to reflect recent trends

and growth forecasts in specific industrial sectors. To the extent feasible, these growth

profile revisions capture the effects of the economic recession. Growth fact ors are

derived from county

- specific economic activity profiles, population forecasts, and other

socio/demographic activity. These data are obtained from a number of sources such as

local air districts, municipal planning agencies, economic studies sponso red by ARB,San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 22 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### and other State and federal agencies. Growth assumptions for the following point

source categories were updated as described below:

 Cogeneration: Growth projections for emissions from natural gas use in the

Cogeneration sector are based on the California Energy Commission’s (CEC)

2009 Integrated Energy Policy Report (2009 IEPR) forecasts. For other fuels

used in cogeneration facilities, ARB used forecasts from the U.S. Energy

Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO).

 Cott on Gins : The particulate matter (PM) size profile for cotton gins was

updated to reflect lower PM2.5 fractions (6.7% PM2.5/Total PM and 15%

PM2.5/PM10) based on test data obtained from a study sponsored by the U.S.

Department of Agriculture, the cotton ind ustry, ARB and the District.

 Electricity Generation : Growth projections for emissions from natural gas use in

the Electricity Generation sector are based on CEC data on electric utilities’

contracts with operators of natural gas

- fired power plants through 2020.

Projections for power plant emissions driven by other fuels are based on AEO

fuel use forecasts.

 Glass and Related Products : Growth projections for emissions from flat

(architectural) glass manufacturing were adjusted to reflect the impact of the

recession. The growth profile is based on ARB’s growth curve for construction

equipment, but it assumes no further growth once the curve returns to pre

recession levels. No growth was assumed for the Container and Cullet Glass

manufacturing sectors.

 M anufacturing and Industrial : Growth projections for emissions from the

Manufacturing and Industrial sector are based on the 2009 IEPR forecast for

natural gas consumption and AEO forecasts for other fuels used by the

manufacturing industry.

 Mineral Processes : Growth profiles for Mineral Processes associated with

cement and concrete products manufacturing were derived from an econometric

model run by Regional Economic Models Inc. (REMI). The profile for other

mineral processes is based on an economic output forecast for non

- metallic

mineral product manufacturing, also from REMI.

 Oil and Gas Production : Growth projections for emissions from the Oil and Gas

Production sector are based on a California Department of Conservation’s

Division of Oil, Gas a nd Geothermal Resources (DOGGR) forecast.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 23 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

###  Petroleum Refining : ARB assumes no growth for the Petroleum Refining sector

based on assessments by District staff and DOGGR. While demand for

petroleum based fuels and other products is expected to grow, District staff does

not anticipate any expansion in capacity at the local facilities. The DOGGR

assessment predicts that the increased demand will be satisfied by imports.

 Service and Commercial : Growth projections for emissions from the Service

and Commercial sector are based on the 2009 IEPR forecast for natural gas

consumption and AEO forecasts for other fuels used by the service and

commercial industry.

B.3.2 Area

- wide Sources

Area

- wide sou rces include source categories associated with human activity where

emissions take place over a wide geographic area. Consumer products and unpaved

road dust are examples of area

- wide sources. Area

- wide sources also include smaller

point sources or facili ties, such as gasoline

- dispensing facilities, and residential water

heaters that are not inventoried individually, but are estimated as a group and reported

as a single source category. Improvements made to the area

- wide emission inventory

categories are described below.

 Agricultural Harvest Operations: ARB staff updated the methodology for

Agricultural Harvest Operations to reflect 2007 farmland acreage based on

estimates from the California Department of Conservation Farmland Mapping

and Monitoring Prog ram (FMMP). ARB staff also applied a lower emission factor

for almond harvesting (31.2 lbs PM10/acre compared to the prior emission factor

of 40.77 lbs PM10/acre) based on recent field research. Growth for this category

is based on a linear regression an alysis of the 2000

- 2008 FMMP farmland

acreage for the Valley counties, which results in a slight decline of about 0.3

percent per year.

 Agricultural Land Preparation: ARB staff updated the Agricultural Land

Preparation methodology to reflect 2007 farmland acreage estimates based on

FMMP data. Growth for this category is based on a linear regression analysis of

the 2000

- 2008 FMMP farmland acreage for the Valley counties, which results in

a slight decline of about 0.3 percent per year.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 24 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

###  Ammonia Emissions from Publicly Owned Treatment Works, Landfills,

Composting, Fertilizer Application, Domestic Activity, Native Animals, and

Native Soils : ARB staff updated the ammonia emissions inventory methodology

for publicly owned treatment works, landfills, compostin g, fertilizer application,

domestic activity, native animals, and native soils. Revisions for these categories

consist primarily of updated activity data. Emission factors were revised only for

fertilizer application. Ammonia emissions for other categor ies such as residential

wood combustion, livestock husbandry, agricultural open burning, on

- road motor

vehicles, wildfires, and wildland fire use (WFU) were updated as part of the

methodology updates for those specific area source categories.

 Architectura l Coatings : The Architectural Coatings category was updated to

reflect emission estimates based on the comprehensive survey for the 2004

calendar year. The emission estimates include benefits of the 2003 and 2007

ARB Suggested Control Measures.

 Bioge nic Emissions : The Biogenic Emissions category was updated to

incorporate year

- specific 8

- day Leaf Area Index data from the Moderate

Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer ( MODIS ) instrument aboard NASA’s

Terra and Aqua satellites. The use of MODIS data res ult in higher biogenic

emissions estimates. In addition, the planning and modeling inventories are

based on observed gridded temperatures rather than climatologically average

temperatures. Finally, ARB staff is now generating biogenic emissions through

the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature ( MEGAN ) v2.04

model, a state

- of

- the

- science canopy scale model, using California

- specific

emission factor and plant functional type datasets. MEGAN is widely used in the

global research and earth sy stem modeling community as well as the U.S.

regulatory modeling community.

 Commercial Cooking : ARB staff updated the growth profile for the Commercial

Cooking category to reflect more recent population growth projections(San

Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecasts 2010

- 2050) developed by The Planning

Center | Design, Community, and Environment ( DC&E ) on behalf of the regional

plannin g organizations in the Valley.

 Consumer Products : The Consumer Products category was updated to reflect

the three most recent surveys conducted by ARB staff for the years 2003, 2006,

and 2008. Together these surveys collected updated product information and

ingredient information for approximately 350 pr oduct categories. Based on the

survey data, ARB staff determined the total product sales and total VOC

emissions for the various product categories. Before the emissions inventory

was updated, some of the existing categories were split out into more spec ific

categories, others were combined, and new categories were added to better

reflect changes in formulations of existing products. The result of this update

was an overall reduction in emissions from this category. After establishing

revised baseline e missions, growth projections for this category are based theSan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 25 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### May 2012 DOF Interim Population Projections for California and its Counties

2010

- 2050.

 Livestock Husbandry : ARB staff updated the Livestock Husbandry

methodology to reflect livestock populatio n data based on the U.S. Department of

Agriculture’s 2007 Census of Agriculture, and ammonia emission factors for dairy

support cattle using data provided by District staff. The ROG and NH3 emissions

reflect updated control profiles to account for control requirements in District Rule

4570, Confined Animal Facilities, and a seasonal adjustment was added to

account for the suppression of dust emissions in months in which rainfall occurs.

 Managed Burning & Disposal : ARB updated the Managed Burning and

Dispo sal category with emissions data reported by District staff for the years

2005 to 2009. Growth for this category after 2009 is based on a linear regression

analysis of the 2000

- 2008 FMMP farmland acreage for the Valley counties, which

results in a slight decline of about 0.3 percent per year.

 Paved Road Dust : ARB updated the paved road dust methodology to be

consistent with the current U.S. EPA AP

- 42 method (January 2011) to quantify

dust emissions from paved roads. Revisions include reductions in silt l oading

values, updated vehicle miles traveled (VMT) data, and incorporation of

precipitation correction factors. In addition, the revised method removed the

vehicle exhaust, tire wear and brake wear PM, thereby avoiding double

- counting

of emissions which are already estimated in EMFAC. ARB assumes no growth

for this category over the timeframe covered by the Plan.

 Pesticides : The Department of Pesticide Regulation (DPR) develops month

specific emission estimates for agricultural and structural pesticides . Each

calendar year, DPR updates the inventory based on the Pesticides Use Report

(PUR) that provides updated information from 1990 to the most current data year

available. The inventory includes estimates through the 2009 calendar year.

Emission forec asts for years beyond 2009 are based on the average of the most

recent five years. Historical emissions estimates for the period 1990

- 2009 were

retained exactly as provided by DPR ( i.e. , emissions are not back casted).

 Residential Wood Combustion : ARB st aff updated the Residential Wood

Combustion methodology using U.S. EPA’s National Emission Inventory

emission factors and newer sales data for manufactured logs. The fireplace

wood consumption rate for 2008 and previous years is based on a 1997 firewood

u sage survey sponsored by the District. Because of episodic wood burning

curtailment requirements in District Rule 4901 that became fully effective in 2009,

the fireplace wood consumption rate for 2009 and subsequent years is based on

the values suggested in a report by U.S. EPA staff and others entitled “A

Recommended Procedure for Compiling Emission Inventory National, Regional

and County Level Activity Data for the Residential Wood Combustion Source

Category.” ARB assumed no growth for this category.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 26 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

###  Un paved Road Dust

– Farm Roads : ARB staff updated the methodology for

Unpaved Road Dust (Farm Roads) to reflect 2007 farmland acreage estimates

based on FMMP data. Growth for this category is based on a linear regression

analysis of the 2000

- 2008 FMMP farmland acreage for the Valley counties, which

results in a slight decline of about 0.3 percent per year.

 Unpaved Road Dust

– Nonfarm Roads : ARB updated the Unpaved Nonfarm

Roads methodology with a lower emission factor of 2.00 lbs PM10/ VMT based

on stu dies sponsored by ARB and the District. The previously used emission

factor of 2.27 lbs PM10/VMT was based on preliminary data from these same

studies. Other revisions include updated road mile data and the addition of a

rainfall correction factor. ARB a ssumed no growth for this category over the

timeframe covered in the Plan.

B.3.3 Mobile Sources

Mobile source emissions are estimated using computer models that are designed to

estimate emissions on a category

- specific basis. ARB uses the EMFAC model to

assess emissions from on

- road vehicles. Off

- road mobile source emissions are

estimated using a new modular approach for different source categories. On

- road and

off

- road models account for the effects of various adopted regulations, technology

types, and seasonal conditions on emissions. The emissions inventories for on

- road

heavy

- duty diesel vehicles and the off

- road construction sector were also adjusted to

reflect revised estimates of the impact of the economic recession on emissions. These

adjustmen ts reflect the latest forecasts and statistics for population growth, fuel sales,

and construction employment in the Valley, which indicate that the pace of the

economic recovery continues to lag previous forecasts.

 On

- Road Mobile Sources : EMFAC2011 was re leased in October 2011 and

reflects current mobile source emissions inventory methods used by the ARB.

The EMFAC model is comprised of several modules; EMFAC2011

- HD is used to

estimate emissions from heavy

- duty diesel truck operations. Truck activity

est imates in EMFAC2011

- HD reflect the emissions inventory presented to the

Board in December 2010. Since that time

, new information has become

available on statewide diesel fuel usage as well as updated economic forecasts.

Truck activity estimates were upda ted using the same methods and data sources

as in the December 2010 inventory.

Figure B

- 1 compares the EMFAC2011 forecast to the updated forecast. Data

suggest that truck emissions will be roughly 6 percent lower in 2019 in the San

Joaquin Valley than previously estimated in EMFAC2011. For the PM2.5 plan,

EMFAC2011 emissions estimates for heavy

- duty trucks were adjusted to reflect

this new information. This adjustment also resulted in a redistribution of VMT

between heavy duty and light duty vehicle c lasses, to maintain the total county

VMT in EMFAC2011.San Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 27 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Figure B

- 1. Heavy Heavy

- Duty Diesel Truck Emissions Forecast: EMFAC2011 vs

. Current Assessment

 Off

- Road Mobile Sources : Off

- Road emissions are generated by many different

types of equipment including equipment used in construction and at industrial

sites; airport ground support equipment; cargo handling equipment used at

California’s Ports and Railyards; locomotives; pleasu recraft; recreational

vehicles; commercial harborcraft and ocean

- going vessels. Emissions from

these equipment are estimated using a suite of models that provide inventory

estimates specific to different categories of vehicles. Many of these category

spe cific models were developed to support recent ARB Rulemaking and are

available through the ARB website. Emissions estimates for pleasurecraft and

recreational vehicles were developed using new models. Category

- specific

models have not yet been created fo r remaining categories and in those cases

OFFROAD2007 was used.

The In

- Use Off

- Road equipment inventory was developed in 2009 and 2010, and

was presented to the Board in December 2010. Since that time updated

economic forecasts have become available. This new information was used to 0.0 

### 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Activity Growth Rate Relative to 2006

Estimate



## December 2010 Activity Growth Current AssessmentSan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 28 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### update the in

- use construction equipment inventory forecast. Staff evaluated

these economic forecasts to estimate the impact on construction equipment.

Results indicated that in 2019 that construction employment would be roughly 10

percent lower than previously anticipated. Figure B

- 2 compares the December

2010 and updated growth estimate.

Figure B

- 2. In

- Use Construction Equipment Revised Activity Growth Estimate

B. 4 FUTURE POPULATION ESTIMATES

Future population estimates play a key role in emissions inventory projections.

Population increases and decreases are directly linked to emissions categories such as

residential fuel combustion, commercial cooking, consumer products, mobile sources,

and more. There are often competing population projection models that can be used for

inclusion in the emissions inventory. The following is a discussion of two such models.

T he Valley’s population increases make it one of the fastest growing regions in the

state. Population growth estimates for the Valley and for California as a whole have

been under review in 2012. The Population Research Unit of the Department of

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 

### 1.4

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Activity Growth Rate Relative to 2006

Estimate



## December 2010 Activity Growth Current AssessmentSan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 29 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Finance (DOF) released interim revised population growth projections in May 2012 1



### . For the 2012 data, DOF used currently available 2010 census data and demographic

trends showing slower growth than projected in DOF’s 2007 series projections. The

DOF developed these interim projections per its duties under California Government

Code Sections 13 073 and 13073.5 to provide sound and current population data for use

in developing state, regional, and local agency policies. The DOF’s final projections will

be completed by January 2013.

The Valley’s Metropolitan Planning Organizations (MPOs) releas ed their revised

population growth projections on March 27, 2012 2 

### . The MPOs use their forecasts to

analyze potential development densities, run MPO traffic models, formulate Sustainable

Community Strategies for SB375, and more.

Population data is factore d into air quality planning in a few ways. For example, a

county’s population is one factor in determining the minimum number of air monitoring

stations required for that county, and data from these air monitoring stations are used to

determine attainment status and show the extent of a region’s attainment challenges.

Population also affects the emissions inventory, with emissions growth projections from

categories like consumer products, architectural coatings, commercial cooking, and light

duty vehicles linked to anticipated growth in population. Increasing population generally

increases air pollutant emissions from these categories, offsetting some of the

emissions reductions progress made by control measures and improved pollution

control technologies

.

The population data displayed in Table B

- 6 and Figure B

- 3 show that although newer

estimates show less population growth in the Valley than was previously estimated, the

population of the Valley is still growing over the 2010

- 2020 time period covered by this

plan. Population growth is a component of the Valley’s air quality challenges.

1 DOF Interim Population Projections for California and its Counties, 2010

- 2050.

http://www.dof.ca.gov/research/demographic/reports/projec tions/interim/view.php

2 San Joaquin Valley Demographic Forecasts, 2010

- 2015 (March 27, 2012)

http://www.valleybluepr int.org/files/San%20Joaquin%20Valley%20Demographic%20Forecasts%20

- %20Final%2027%20Mar%202012_0.pdfSan Joaquin Valley Unified Air Pollution Control District Dec ember 20 , 2012



### B

- 30 Appendix B: Emissions Inventory

2012 PM2.5 Plan 

### Table B

- 6 Comparison between DOF and MPO Population Projections

County Old DOF (2007 Series) New DOF MPO

2010 2020 %

change 2010 2020 %

change 2010 2020 %

change



### Fresno 983,478 1,201,792 22% 932,926 1,083,889 16% 930,000 1,082,000 16%



### Kern* 871,728 1,086,113 25% 841,609 1,041,469 24% 840,000 1,004,000 20%



### Kings 164,535 205,707 25% 152,996 179,722 17% 153,000 181,000 18%



### Madera 162,114 212,874 31% 151,136 183,176 21% 150,900 154,500 2%



### Merced 273,935 348,690 27% 256,345 301,449 18% 256,000 303,000 18%



### San

Joaquin 741,417 965,094 30% 686,651 795,631 16% 685,000 807,000 18%



### Stanislaus 559,708 699,144 25% 515,229 582,746 13% 514,000 594,000 16%



### Tulare 466,893 599,117 28% 443,567 536,429 21% 442,000 501,000 13%



### Total 4,223,808 5,318,531 26% 3,980,459 4,704,511 18% 3,970,900 4,626,500 17%



### California

Total 39.1

million 44.1

million 12.8% 37.3

million 40.8

million 9% 

### NA NA NA

% Calif.

pop. in

Valley 10.8% 12.1% 10.7% 11.5% 

### NA NA NA



### Figure B

- 3 Temporal Comparison of Population Projections

3000000 3200000 3400000 3600000 3800000 4000000 4200000 4400000 4600000 4800000 5000000

2000 2010 2015 2020 Population



## Year 

# Total Population of Valley Counties, 2000

- 2020

New DOF MPO Old DOF