ref2015.d021915a 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Report Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Scenario ref2015 Reference case

Datekey d021915a

Release Date April 2015

40. Light-Duty Vehicle Stock by Technology Type

(millions)

 Technology Type 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Car Stock 1/

 Conventional Cars

 Gasoline ICE Vehicles 123.00 122.01 121.41 120.65 120.19 119.88

 TDI Diesel ICE 0.95 1.12 1.31 1.47 1.64 1.86

 Total Conventional Cars 123.95 123.13 122.72 122.12 121.84 121.74

 Alternative-Fuel Cars

 Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 2.39 2.68 2.97 3.24 3.50 3.76

 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.13

 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0.02 0.04 0.07 0.09 0.12 0.14

 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 0.04 0.07 0.11 0.15 0.18 0.22

 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 2.09 2.44 2.80 3.09 3.39 3.68

 Natural Gas ICE 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

 Natural Gas Bi-fuel 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07

 Propane ICE 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04

 Propane Bi-fuel 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Fuel Cell Methanol 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Total Alternative Cars 4.72 5.44 6.20 6.85 7.49 8.13

Total Car Stock 128.66 128.57 128.91 128.97 129.33 129.87

Light Truck Stock 1/

 Conventional Light Trucks

 Gasoline ICE Vehicles 86.07 85.84 85.95 87.21 88.37 89.34

 TDI Diesel ICE 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.27 0.34 0.43
 Total Conventional Light Trucks 86.23 86.03 86.17 87.48 88.71 89.77

 Alternative-Fuel Light Trucks

 Ethanol-Flex Fuel ICE 8.18 9.27 10.39 11.65 12.82 13.90

 100 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02

 200 Mile Electric Vehicle 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Plug-in 10 Gasoline Hybrid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Plug-in 40 Gasoline Hybrid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electric-Diesel Hybrid 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Electric-Gasoline Hybrid 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.44 0.45 0.46

 Natural Gas ICE 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08

 Natural Gas Bi-fuel 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.15

 Propane ICE 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.12

 Propane Bi-fuel 0.38 0.38 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42

 Fuel Cell Gasoline 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Fuel Cell Methanol 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

 Fuel Cell Hydrogen 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01

 Total Alternative Light Trucks 9.25 10.37 11.52 12.82 14.03 15.15

Total Light Truck Stock 95.48 96.40 97.69 100.30 102.75 104.92

Total Stock 224.14 224.97 226.61 229.27 232.08 234.79

 ICE = Internal combustion engine.

 - - = Not applicable.

 Sources: 2012 and 2013 values derived using: Energy

Information Administration (EIA), Household Vehicles Energy Consumption

1994, DOE/EIA-0464(94) (Washington, DC, August 1997); EIA, Describing Current and Potential Markets for

Alternative-Fuel Vehicles, DOE/EIA-0604(96) (Washington, DC, March 1996); EIA, Alternatives to Traditional

Transportation Fuels 2009 (Part II - User and Fuel Data), April 2011; Federal Highway Administration, Highway

Statistics 2012 (Washington, DC, January 2014); Oak Ridge National Laboratory,

Transportation Energy Data Book: Edition 33 (Oak Ridge, TN, July 2014);

and EIA, AEO2015 National Energy Modeling System run ref2015.d021915a.

Projections: EIA, AEO2015 National Energy Modeling System run ref2015.d021915a.

 1/ Includes personal and fleet vehicles.
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

119.56 119.31 119.18 119.04 118.90 118.80 118.77 118.84 118.96 119.23 119.57 119.96

2.10 2.36 2.64 2.94 3.27 3.65 4.06 4.51 4.96 5.41 5.85 6.27

121.67 121.68 121.82 121.98 122.18 122.45 122.83 123.35 123.93 124.64 125.43 126.23

4.00 4.22 4.43 4.62 4.80 4.95 5.09 5.23 5.34 5.46 5.56 5.65

0.14 0.15 0.16 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.22 0.24 0.27 0.31 0.35

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.17 0.19 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.32 0.36 0.39 0.42 0.46

0.26 0.30 0.34 0.37 0.41 0.44 0.48 0.52 0.57 0.62 0.68 0.75

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.13

3.96 4.23 4.48 4.73 4.98 5.24 5.50 5.79 6.09 6.40 6.73 7.06

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06

0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09

0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07

0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04

8.74 9.31 9.86 10.36 10.86 11.36 11.85 12.39 12.93 13.51 14.10 14.70

130.41 130.99 131.68 132.35 133.03 133.81 134.68 135.74 136.86 138.15 139.52 140.92

90.28 91.05 91.77 92.39 92.91 93.38 93.83 94.27 94.71 95.10 95.42 95.66

0.55 0.68 0.81 0.94 1.06 1.18 1.31 1.41 1.52 1.61 1.69 1.77
90.83 91.73 92.58 93.33 93.97 94.56 95.13 95.68 96.23 96.71 97.11 97.42

14.93 15.87 16.74 17.54 18.25 18.91 19.51 20.05 20.55 20.98 21.36 21.67

0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.47 0.49 0.50 0.52 0.53 0.54 0.56 0.57 0.59 0.61 0.63 0.65

0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11

0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17

0.43 0.44 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.47 0.47 0.48 0.48 0.49 0.49 0.50

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03

16.22 17.20 18.11 18.94 19.69 20.38 21.01 21.59 22.12 22.59 23.00 23.35

107.05 108.93 110.69 112.27 113.67 114.94 116.14 117.27 118.35 119.30 120.11 120.77

237.46 239.92 242.37 244.61 246.70 248.75 250.82 253.01 255.21 257.45 259.64 261.70
2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040

2013-

2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2040

120.35 120.72 121.10 121.52 121.98 122.50 123.09 123.72 124.42 125.16 125.95 0.1%

6.67 7.03 7.38 7.70 8.00 8.29 8.55 8.79 9.02 9.23 9.42 8.2%

127.01 127.75 128.48 129.22 129.99 130.79 131.63 132.51 133.43 134.39 135.37 0.4%

5.73 5.81 5.87 5.93 5.99 6.04 6.10 6.15 6.20 6.25 6.30 3.2%

0.39 0.44 0.50 0.55 0.61 0.68 0.74 0.80 0.87 0.94 1.00 11.0%

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 26.1%

0.49 0.52 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.65 0.69 0.72 0.76 0.79 0.83 12.2%

0.82 0.89 0.96 1.04 1.11 1.18 1.25 1.31 1.38 1.44 1.50 11.9%

0.15 0.18 0.20 0.23 0.25 0.28 0.30 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.40 - -

7.40 7.72 8.05 8.37 8.69 9.00 9.31 9.61 9.91 10.21 10.49 5.5%

0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 2.3%

0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 2.0%

0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.09 0.09 4.4%

0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 1.0%

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 - -

15.29 15.87 16.45 17.03 17.60 18.17 18.73 19.28 19.83 20.37 20.90 5.1%

142.30 143.62 144.93 146.25 147.59 148.96 150.36 151.79 153.26 154.75 156.27 0.7%

95.80 95.84 95.80 95.70 95.57 95.41 95.23 95.04 94.82 94.57 94.31 0.3%

1.83 1.89 1.93 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.04 2.06 2.07 2.07 2.07 9.3%
97.63 97.73 97.73 97.67 97.57 97.43 97.28 97.09 96.89 96.65 96.39 0.4%

21.93 22.12 22.27 22.38 22.46 22.51 22.55 22.56 22.56 22.55 22.52 3.3%

0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 3.9%

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 - -

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

0.67 0.69 0.71 0.72 0.74 0.76 0.78 0.79 0.81 0.82 0.84 2.7%

0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 2.0%

0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 1.6%

0.17 0.17 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.18 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0.20 2.6%

0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.0%

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 - -

0.03 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 - -

23.64 23.87 24.04 24.18 24.28 24.36 24.42 24.45 24.47 24.48 24.47 3.2%

121.27 121.59 121.78 121.85 121.85 121.79 121.69 121.55 121.36 121.12 120.85 0.8%

263.57 265.22 266.71 268.10 269.44 270.75 272.05 273.34 274.62 275.88 277.12 0.8%