Trends and Implications 

of Climate Change for 

National and 

International Security 

October 2011 







	



" # !#!$ 

 '(%


!#!!

#%$$ $

#

'
(%




	 #

&#+)**%
"

 #

 #!", +)**%


  %
OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

3140 DEFENSE PENTAGON

WASHINGTON, DC 20301–3140

October 4, 2011

MEMORANDUM FOR UNDER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR ACQUISITION, 

 TECHNOLOGY AND LOGISTICS

SUBJECT: Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and Implications of 

 Climate Change on National and International Security

I am pleased to forward the final report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on 

Trends and Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security. The report 

offers important considerations for the Department of Defense related to this subject.

The task force examined the implications of climate change from a global perspective,

with a special focus on the African continent, and makes recommendations that can improve the 

U.S. approach to addressing the many challenges of climate change. First, they identified a need 

for a strong climate information system database, managed by the Department of Defense. 

Second, the task force recommends a whole of government approach to mitigating the effects of 

climate change and highlights the importance of engaging with international leaders in 

identifying global solutions. 

Climate change will only grow in concern for the United States and its security interests. 

This report offers guidance to the Department of Defense on how to become a leader in 

mitigating and adapting to its growing effects.

I endorse all of the study recommendations and urge you to adopt them into your 

operations.

 Dr. Paul G. Kaminski

Chairman

DEFENSE SCIENCE

BOARD

OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE

3140 DEFENSE PENTAGON

WASHINGTON, DC 20301–3140

MEMORANDUM TO THE CHAIRMAN, DEFENSE SCIENCE BOARD

SUBJECT: Final Report of the Defense Science Board Task Force on Trends and 

Implications of Climate Change on National and International Security

Changes in climate patterns and their impact on the physical environment can create 

profound effects on populations in parts of the world and present new challenges to 

global security and stability. Failure to anticipate and mitigate these changes increases the 

threat of more failed states with the instabilities and potential for conflict inherent in such 

failures. 

Because of the increasing importance of climate change on US security, the Defense 

Science Board was charged with examining the need to adapt, manage, and mitigate the 

consequences of climate change. 

This report begins with an overview of the impacts of climate change over recent decades 

while recognizing uncertainty about the pace of future changes. It examines the political 

consequences of climate change as it relates to national and international security, with 

special attention to the African continent due to the vulnerability of African nations with 

high potential to intersect with United States national interests. Within this context, the 

study examined the roles of the Department of Defense and the national security 

community writ large in responding to effects of climate change in both the United States 

and in key areas of the globe. 

The deliberations of the task force identified the urgent need for clear roles and policies 

throughout the US government addressing the consequences of climate change and 

produced a set of recommendations on how the US government can manage the nearterm effects on populations and the longer-term need for adaptation that impacts US and 

international security interests. The recommendations include specific roles for the 

Department of Defense in helping both the United States and U.S. Africa Command 

address these challenges. The recommendations fall into five main areas:

• The need for developing a robust climate information system

• Instituting water security as a core element of DOD strategy 

• Roles of the national security community, including the intelligence community, 

the Department of State, and the White House

DEFENSE SCIENCE

BOARD
• Guidance and DOD organization to address the full range of international climate 

change-related issues and their impact on the evolution of DOD’s missions

• Combatant command roles, responsibilities, and capacities. 

The report emphasizes that the United States cannot enter into an open-ended 

commitment to dealing with the need to address the near term consequences of climate 

change or the longer term need for adapting to the change. The United States can provide 

needed expertise, leadership, and some level of resources where it is in the national 

interest to do so. To be effective, Department of Defense actions must be part of a 

comprehensive multi-department approach and in coordination with international efforts.

Gen. Larry Welch Dr. William Howard

Co-Chair Co-Chair
TABLE OF CONTENTS I v


		

'%$&%"(*****************************************************************************************************&

 $",*%""$#"&$)
)$
"$

 $#************************************************************************************************************************,

%
#% ) #$%)
# % 
% $***************************************************************,

%
 $******************************************************************************************************************************************,.

 $"-*%""$$$%$"#*****************************--

 %#$***********************************************************************************************************--

&##%#$
# % $ ##***********************************************************************************//

 $".*
$$#!%#$***********************************/4

	!%$ % %#**********************************************************************************************0,

#$ &#(	$$&$***************************************************************************************************************************03

 $"&$ #% &#%(************************************************************************************************1-

#$$%%$ #
 !&% $*************************************************2/

 $"/*#$$%"$(%$(*************************************21

%#% !%$ ##$$%$********************************************************************21

   '#%****************************************************************************************************************************30

 $"0*$ "$$#******************************************************34

&!!#%% $ #%$%'%$***************************************34

 %%  $)$! $%$)!%(************************************************42

'*$	"$(#$#*********************************************,+,

%$
%************************************************************************************************,+,

%	 #% ($%$**********************************************************************************************************,+2

%% #
# &% ****************************************************************************************************,,0

'#####$ #%	 #% ($%$******************************************************,,4

&#(***************************************************************************************************************************************************,-3

'*  #*************************************************************************************,.+

!!
 %$****************************************************************************************************************************************,.+

 #**************************************************************************************************************************************,..

"#"***************************************************************************************************,.4

#"
"# ******************************************************************************************,/.


"#$$#$$#"***************************************************************************,/0

##"(*************************************************************************************************************************,/4

 
vi I 
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I vii


	




 !   #!!  " )

!   ! !!! !   ! %  !#  ! 

"  ( !! ! !&

! !) !(!"  !!

  " )  !! ( !  !    # 

!  # !   $ ' "!!& "! !

"!" )! "  ! ! !!(

! (  !    !  "!   !

"!!   ! ) ! !  !( ! #  

# !! ! !    #(  "( ( 

#!*! " )!' !! 

& "$&  #(  $ !" ! #( 

 "   ! !( (   $   $

$!)  ! #  !  !   

!!!$!!*!! "! !!

!
!! "!&! ! )


 ! !   !   "#  "! ! 

% !" ( *!!  )%(

! ! %!! !! "      "     "

$(! "   !! 

!!! $!"! $ !(#$!

"! ! ! ! !!  "     -))( $!

#-/	.(%-	/.(!" %-/	.(! -1.(

'-	0..)(!  !!!+ #,) !(

!" !!*!) !  !

 !     !   ! *! !  "

"! *!!!!!)!

""! (**!(! ! !!!

!! "!&)

&   !   ! $ ! ! !) "!(  !!

!& !!! %!&!  !&

"! (!"&!   !#"!!)
viii I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

  
   !


 "  
   



&

	






 




$  



  
 

" 







 
%

 
""

 	



"

 


 "

 
"

 




 


 
"

 "


 
"

  


 

 
 

 
  



$  
 
 
 
 

 
'



  

   
 

   
 



" 
 #  
 
  
 
 
 





&




 


 





 "$ 

   
 


 
&   
 

"  
  


  
 

 
 
 
  

  





&








	








 
 

"


 
 

 & 	  


   


$ 
 
 " 

 
 
 
" 


 


&$ 






$



"
 




"$







&
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I ix

 * "!     #(  #(

!# !! & !)  & !$  !"

%! #(  !  !!  ! ! !*!

!   !     !!&) 
  !$ 

" "  & ! $ "  & !! ! ! 

"! (!!"(!! )

"!&!(!!!! & !

! ( " !(  ! ! !  ! 

% ! ) &+  !  #!     % ! &     

!    ! & #!  ( ( " !&(

#!'! -	 .)
 !  ! 

! & ! ( ! !&   #!  !   &  !

 ! (!& %!& ! !

 "! !( *! !   ! ) &

 #!   ! !  #   !  

" !( "     *  &( (  $!

"! )&!  !  !  "!( ! ( 

"& ! "!  #!  (  #! ( 

! (!"&#"! )

 !  !    ! ! $   !

 )  ! "! !#&"!(*

!! -!&!"& .)! ! (!

    #! #! ! )  

"!!& "   !!! ! ! "! #  !!

! !  ! *!) $  !   "! ! #

"! !  !! # !  !  !&   !

#!!#!&)

  #! & !  !! # !  ! ! 

&  ! " !! &   ,( ( ( 

 ) *  & !  !!  "( #( &( 

!&"! $&" !&#

!*!(!""  #!!"!! 

 ! ! & !) # !    #  ! !

" ! "! !  !! ! "! "!"

 ( !        #  ! * 

 & !  & ! !! )
x I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

 "!  "  ! "     

 !"$( " ! ! !!   * 
 " 

&!" "   " $# "'    "! " !#

% "!!"""* $# "! " !#"

%!  !#!!"  (   $ (  ! "!(

""!!(" " !*

	"  " !  "  ""  ! ,
-   "

 " !'!"!  !!!!"  !!!(   ! "$ "

# " "! #"#  "! $   #!'

!"# " "* 
  $ " !  !"' #!"(

!#!"("" "!'!""" !!!"!

 "  !!#!* 
 "!  " !  !#  !'!"(  '

  !""!!"!" ! &"!  "*




!  " !!!! $" !! "!!

"!" !*"!""""" !!"#!!"*


! $" !$ #"!#)

  !!!# " "# !

 " "# 

 !" ',"'!"'+"

!'!"! #"-

 !! " "!"!

  !!%$ 

  !""!

   #"  #"!

  ! #'$' ""$"!(

!!

  !'"!"'

 !!$


  !  & !"  " ! # "!   #"(

' "$"'  "   " " " ""   "

%# !"*
!!#!% !"" 

+" !* #!!! +$*$%"

""!!!"# "$!("% # # !' !"
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I xi

""#!$#"#%##"!,$!!#"##"

!###"$!"$!!#(!#!$"""

!$#%#(!#* #!# #!#$!!"&

%!( !  $  7? # " $ " <? ( #   # 76"#

#$!(,!"! #7?"( #%"!$"" $" !

# $ ##, $!!# !#" '#( '$  ("*

"$"#"%%#!"##!$"'&%

####$!#!!#"$!&!,



-#!#!"#!"#%!#(!$"""

###"!!'#!%!",$!#!*#!"#"

! "#(  #" #!" !  $( ' 

#!%!"$#!##!##$!"#"!!#,

#  " ( # % # !#"# #  "$!#(

#!$#"!##"#%$!#(,	(%

$#!" ! $ # !% " "!%"  !%#"* $

""  &# !#* "$ "# ""  $$#* "&

"#"#!""","#""#"#!$!#"""#"

 % # " #* $ !#"#"* "#!"* !#"* #!-

$%*##&#",#"!

( #'!# #! ! $! ##"$"

 ! " #* !#! # # !# $", #  "

!( #"( %!#  !"$! !" ##

$#" ! ,  !# "* " # " 

!#$!( !%#  !, ! # # #  

! # 
##( 2
3 !! # # 
#!$"" #!* $!

75551755=*%!#&#(#$"#"&!!!!$!

%#*#("#)""$#""$!"%

&!",1

  !##  "  # ## !"

!)#"""$"*#%!(!"*%"#"##%"



6,
#!$""#!/"!!#!#
##((

!,!$!(7566,:,""#+##+00","#!$""#!,!0"("#0

!"!4#"0"0980!,.67>>:>=8;6,"#!""$&!

"$!#(*!!#(*#
!("!!#!(#
!(

"!
,
xii I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

     "  ! %      

 ! % '

       "      !    

# )  !    '    #     %

   &  & %&   " ' 


" %     !% !& !      

$         !   & ''& ! 

 & ! !        ! &  

     ! " %'	! 

    ! ! ! " %'    & 

     & !!  ! !  & 

   &    "     

#  !&  !%  &      

' "      !%&  # #  ! 

 %  '

    ! ! '%

#        ' #"&   

 !       #   ' 

$&  & +*    ! !  ( #     

 %    #  #  " %

' %        #     !  # 

 ' ! &"   " !   & 

   #    "  &  "&

! !  '

	




        

               ! %(

& %&  '  #     %

       !       # 

       !    " '

 # !      &  !    


" ' #   
   

        !  "    

 #   &      #    

     %#     "!   
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I xiii

&! &! # # ##" #" %# $  "#!# !

!#"#" #!!!"*&# #"""$") #!##

 ") # !##  ##)  # # ##" ( !

	#!#%#-	.&!#$!(*

# ##" " #! # !"$!" ! #$ ! 

+ ## # !"" # &!," " !# #

# " $"  # *  # ##" " %  %#

#!"#  !# "##(  !"  "#!# #!"#*  ( #

"$""&'#"%%!#&##!"

"#$(##"*!+#!&!#&###

" "  $#" &   $#(  $##

!""* 
"# !!"" &  ! !+#! ## #

# * ## & %#( $ ! #% &#!

#) $# !#) "  !$#$! !#") 

!" #  &# (!#! ""#!" !"$# !

'#! " &#! ##!"* #%""  ##&

%"###!#"$!#(#"*

 "# '#! #" &   !" &# # '!#" 

 !"$!"*  # ##" &  # !# &# #

#))#!(!" #"!"#% #

 '!#"  % !) (!() !() !$#$!) 

$")  !"#!$#$! *  +#! "##(  #" !"

&   !!""    #" #%#") % &#  $!#!

#*

###"""#!(#%!""#""#!"

&# # # #(  ## # !" $( 

#%() # $  "# ! ! # #!()  

!#$! ##$!) "$!# %$#!#"*"

"  "#!(  "$""$( &# #  # #&# +

#! $"* '" $  $! (!"  # !$#$!

'#" !! ##   ! !%$#  # $ #

!%##"#!""##&#!!""

##%!#$(!#"###"""*!()

# !( !"  !"  # $!$  
# % #

#%(&#&#!#!"!##"#!*"
xiv I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

$&$% %%%  (  #"&# %   (% #.%# $ 

!%% % %-

#$)$%$%#&%&#%'%*# $$%(   '#%

%%  !# ' &  )!#%$-  %   !#% 

$%#&%&# $  %   &$ #$ %%%  %  $$$% '&#

# $!%% %-)!$ )$%%'%$&,

 %%%$ $## #

 %!%% 
%#*$ #

 !#%% %%!' * #%

 !#%% %% '# %	&# #

 
'# %
%#%  !#% # #

 
#'
%%',%# %

%%*!# #

 %#
%*%# #%

 !#%% #&%&# ##&%&##'

 '# %# %% *%# #


 % 
% $!#$%#% $&

$% &%$ !%( #

  #! %% #$%%#$&#%* !#% 

!$+$&!! #%*'# %$&#%*%%'%$

 %%%$  &#'*

 %#*$&!! #% #'&% #%*%'%$(%'# &$

!#%#$!$(%+%   %*+'# %

# %% *+%!#%% %
%# #

 %%%$ %# ) #$$%#

%	&%#$$$%

 &#& % 

 !#%% $%#%'# %$#

' !%# #

 !#%% $+
 '$#&%$!#*

'#$%*$#
%%' $    .! %#'

#% #*#$! $ ! !&% $%*#$$'$

$ $&$% ##+ ( %$ %'%$ # ! #%%+ %#

! %% (  $%*  (%  $%#&%&#  !# $$  #
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I xv


   
 #       

& 	    
    ! 


$&


	



	    ! #    
 




#

   &   
  
  



 
 
 !    
  

#& 	  
 %  
  !      


  '    
 !

 &  ! #      ! 



 #
' &

	  " "     

  #

 
 
    $ 

   

  %     %   
& 	 


  
  
' 
#  ! 
 

!

&

	


&
"

 ! 

' 
  
 
& %     
& 	


 %
#

%


"&




%  !     "( 
& %

'   &"


 
 
    '
% '


& 	   # 
      &

#



#
!


"

!&	
 


  !  
    
 #

! 
   %  #  
 

 
   
  #%  
  




&	

 

 
 & %   
 #    #

  
 
   !%  
  

        
  



   
 
% %   
#( 
#
xvi I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

 !"!(' !"! $ !" !!& !#

!#!!!! "!#"!!&*




	


		
	


	

	 !, &	& "%

!
"!!!# !)

 "! ! & ! '!% !

 " #!!! "! '!& '

"!" !  *

 !& ! ! " !#!&!!

$!!! *

 !$ " !! !

!! !& !!

 !!! *

 !&   # " !'

!&'! &!    ! " 

#  &!"!
" '

"! $+"!&!&*

 !!!!!  !!

 ")

 $!!!"!  !!!

"!$ !"&!  !#!&

$+ !'+!&"# # 

 !! !! #! *

  !  "!  !-"# *

. #!   #! !

" !! "!" "'"

#"!!  "#! !!!

 !*

	 !, &	& "$$!

'!!!!'
!!&! !

- !! .!!!& *
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I xvii





		






 '

 
&"



$

 $&
 






!






 $(

 
   


 $

 !

 $

 (

   
#!  &


"




&
 
$

"!
!
 (

   


$*+,



 $ 










 
 $
!

$
#



#($  




) 
  
"




(  



$




!(

*


 $!& " 

!
	 
$& 


$" 

!'

 








!(

 "!









"
 








$(

 * 

 
 $ !      
%


 
$  &   
   
   




"
"




 $  
    # 
   

!
 
%
    
  ! 



(
xviii I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

 $$ $$ &

 "#  $

 

!%''%

$$%!% %  %$%

 '

 !$* 

 $$+%!%

!'

 ! "

 $$$


 $'



	



 $$ &

 	("$

 $')  

 &

 

!'"  

  %$

%'

 

$

$!

$'

 	)$!

'

 !%"(%

$	$

*	+"%!%

'

 # 	$



	  '
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I xix

 %''&' &!"'#$%#%!# !'"$''#"

$ #'$%#'&"#"%'*'% '$%#%!&'	"#'%

"&'#"',-&# '-"("$ #'$%#'&#(&#"

&$$''#"&'#%&" # &2//-!"!"'#%#"&

#%) &"%""'% &3/+!$ &#$ #'$%#'&"

&(&'')'&!'" (-('"#' !'-'#.

 !%"(!"''#%  !'&%%#%!

##%"'#"  !'#*"& "+$%!"'

23#%#"#'&(0%#"&"%/$$ ,

"#"%'*'"&&&&!"'')',&! %'#'

%'#"##" "%#&""%'"'&#%

""(%#$" !'"&&"'&

2
3$%#'/

 +'"'#&%)'#" -!# "-"&,"'&&&&&&!"'

$ '&$$ '#,"'"'''&"'$$%

# #%#)%&"'#$%#%',*'%%&#(%&'%'"

%-$%$& "*''
 &""'')/

 $$ ,#&' #'&$#'$ #'$%#'&#(&#"#%" # 0

& %&&&&&!"'"$ """#%"'%'& ) 

"&'#%!!$'&#"'#($ *'%0"%,0*&'

%&#(%&"$,& "%&'%('(%&#%!'&&(&

#&-%-"/

 "'"'''& # "&%%#%!

23"'%"'#" %&%$%#%!&-#!!"&

"'%"0#("'%,&(%',$%'"%&-""'%"'#" 

"&&(&	""',"#$$#%'("'&'#&%

 !'"0% '"#%!'#""%""!#%

)& ',"'#&'# %&1')'&/

 #(&#""%0'%!-) -"!&(% # &'#

) #$"!#"&'%'"0'#0"'%&##%

"#%!'#"&,&'!&* "%!"' ,( ""0#("'%,

$',"#!$'"/

#'%'%,#"&-#'"%%'%,#"&

#%# ,"'%'#%-
#"''&#( %') #$!"'#

&'%' %#!$ #%  !' "0% ' #%'& '' ( & #" '

%!*#% #('"'
), !'"#!$'#.
xx I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

 $&#%%%&% % %% #$, 

$,$ $#% "&%*%#'$

 %% $ #%#$%%# /'&

 #%
&#$'(% % 

#"&#%$.

 #%%% %% $$ $& / %

$&!! #%% #$$$# &$%/&% 

$&#%*'&#%$.

!&%*##%#* $ #$%% $'# %

$ & $$  '% #*  #% %$  #$%#&%&# % 

&  $$$$%  '&#%* %  %  %$  %

$% !%.

#% #,	 %%$ &-

 #% $%!!# % %,%#% #%$ 

%$#'%#% #%$-	31%2,	41
 $%$2,	5

1%#%$ *2,	61 #%#&%&#,$ &#$,

$$$$%#% #%2.

 "&#%%%$$%##$#&% 

%#%% %#)#$$.

 #%#$, $  % #'$,  $  $ $

$ &-

 %%#%#%%$$%##$#&% 

 $#% $% )#$$,%#,&% %#$.

 $%$%#$ &$ #$#&% % +%

!% % %#*$&!! #% !#% $,

 #$,!# #$,%$.

 ' !&% $&#%#$

!# %$$ $%#&% * #! #%%

#$% $$%#$ #%$$%% $,(%

!$$ %%$#%% #*%$'(%#

%$'&$$.

#%#$$ %#'$$ &-

 $$$$%#'$0# #+% $% $%/

%$ &$%$$$%%!%% .
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I xxi

 $*$")$$")$ "$%$#'$$

 "$"#$"#$$ $#

##$""#"%$ $#-	#+$)#%( 

#"$"#"$
$%""#"&#-0"

( +'$"$).$")##$

"# $$$"$##$%$"#"&#-1

 ($#%$"$#"#$$"$

"# #$$%"##$""$"##$""#"# #

#$%$#-"( +$
$%"%" "$$

##$#$$"$##$"+#$")#"# 

$#$##$"#-

$$$#
"$"+'$#% "$ "$
&)#$

%"+ #% $) $ ##$# $$ '   $  "$  $

"$ $% %$ ##$#+ "# $"+ ""#+

$"!% $-

" $$##%,

 	$)")'"$"#"$#"#"$$/#

###$-

 	" "$$%"$
%"#&'

$"$%")+#%"$)+$

$$$"  #-

 "$#)"$%$$$%"#$$

 $#$"#%"#"$#$"

"$#% "$$"  #-

 	%$"$$"  #")++'$"+

##$""#"%$#$"$# #""%

&%"$#'$$""# $&"#"# #$)-

 "##"#)#$$)"#%"#)$$"$

$$#$"%$%"+$%$
$%"+

$#$$"$"# ""+#"&"%$##%#

$")" #"#
&$#+

. ""##%#$#&"$

	$"$ "$""$$"$

&"$#"& $""-

 %$#)#$$""&"* $

####$#$$)$"#'"$""#%"##%
xxii I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 


&
%


	
# 





 #&


(
	#


*  +
$
&

 

,
 


#


 %

%*&&%%
%

+&

 
)

"


'
&


"


#
 #&

 





!&
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 1

	 


	


 	




 $
#	



 
   #    
# 

"   
   
 ! (  

 
  
 
&    #   

 



$

$

 
 
 #  
   
 &

 
    #     


   
 #$ 
    



$'

$"&




#

 !!'
&


 #  
   
"   

     


  
&!
$ 
$


  # $  
#$   

 


 !  

! 
$ !    
$ 
$ 


      
   &

! $    
 !  

&
 


'#
&
!

  !   $ ! #   !  
 


 
&


				

	


  !  #$ ! 
  
#


#


)
*#&#



%

 
 # )&&$$


$$
#

*
2 I CHAPTER 1 

 	","! ! 

 ! ! & !

 %!!!!


 #!  # ! !  !  ! !!

 "!   & &+  $! ! !  # !

!& *!%! !)!! ! & ! " !

"  $ ! ! #  !! ! & ! !

$  #!  !! #  # $! !   !

!!!!*
!!# & !!  

! $ #! "!*&)! "! ! 

 !!!&! ! $&%!"!!

!  "!    !  "  * 
     "  "

!"&% &!$! # #&&*

   &) !   !     ! !

-**)! %!!.)"   !&! ! ) " )

  !    $!  !) !  

!  * "!&)   ! !   & ! !

!"  " !	'"!
 !-	
.!

  * ! ! !$!  ! ) !!  

! "  !  ! &  !     

!!!&#!" $! !*

%   " !    ! !" 

 !") ) !&)!"!!!$!!

 " &  ! * "    !  

 #    ! "   "!! !! *

#) !  #!      ) "

 "! $ !& !   * !! )

!  "!&  "  " ") ") !) 

   ! ! !      !) "! !  

 !&  ! $! ! 	
 !    $! 

! !! *  & !!  !    ! !   

!!!&"!& ! !!+ !!)

!) !! ! !  "!!" "!!

! #"!!$!!! $!!!*
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 3


$ %!    ! $!    !  !

   #! !   !   )! ! ( 


 !'  ! !' !!!  ! !!    # !

!  ! ! !!  !   ! #"!  ! )

 $ !!! ,(('	
'#!""!

 ! !! 
' !! "   )! $ # !

-' $&"!& ! !! ! ,"!!!#-

!$! !$!!  (
 !!"!

 !  ! !#!   !  ,- $

&! !!  )!! ,(('!"0.12-(


  %!    !  ! $! ! ! *!

! (+ 
  !& &   ! !"&)  '

!&& !" ! & 0/..( 
 $ !' ! ! !

$ ! !'! !!!! !

!  ! ! %! #"!  !  !  ! 

!" ! ,((')  !!" ' $

  #'  #  -( 
 ! "  ! !! !  

$!'! %! ,(('!$# '"! '" -'!

!  $!!#!&(

!!' !  #!  !  #

!!  ! "!#!#!

& ! "! ! "!  ! ! #!

#  #! ( " !   ! &!  # 

!    #!&  &     !!  ! & # 

!  (!! ! "!&!!"!

#!&  !  # ! "   ! !  !' $

&     !"&( &' ! !  !"

  !! "!" &  !  ! !   

#!)"   (

! ! # !   ' !   #! !! !

 #!      ! ! & !  ! "! 

!  ! ('!!&"!!&!  ! 

 !& ! ! ! !&  !!   % !

 #!    ( # !  ! %    

!!"!" !#!'"$! 

# ! '! & ! #!  !
4 I CHAPTER 1 

!%$)  %"#$ $ #$  "#$ $  $ "&

$&  )#).# "#  %$%" $  $#

##$  $#-   "#%$#  $ % ""%#

!%$$$##$%"$$#-





	

 "#& #"&$#  $ "$ #)#$1$ $# "+

)"# "+ ")# "+  # "1" %$ $ ####

 #$ "#$$$##% "$"$# $ "#$

 "$ %$%" $#- " "&   "$ $ "$

%$%"$#"&#)"$"%#%###% "$$

& $+&$+&%$-$#"$)

# $ $ $&  )#).# "$#  %$%"

$-%#%#"&$$ %" #+$###$$$#"&$#

" '.#+ "$+  $ &" $- 
# "

$$ " "#$$#  $ "$ #)#$ '$ %"$$#

$ ) $ &$)  $ %") ##% $#  $ # $+

$ ""#%$#") $& %$$"#%"#- 	

$"#$+ #"&$ %"$$# " $ " ) ) $ "

# $# ##+$#)#$$"""#2--+#3##$'$

$ #%"$ $)+  $ " #%"$ """ 2--+

#3$$"#"$$&-

%" 5.5 "#$#  (   $ "#  $) $$ 

%"$'#"&$##%$#-2	$##+$

#$)%"#$$#$#"&"$-3##$$#%#$

$$#"&$#"')#$$"$#"#%$-$"

- #"&$ $  $ #  #   #)  

$%#'$%$$##$$ )# "###-
#'$%$

"%  #"&$#   $#)- #"&$#  $ 

#% "$#)$$#$%)) "###$'"#$$"#+

)""$&$%"$#+)

$"$ '$ # $"% $ ##$- $ ##$



6--*&--"+/
"#$.)#&,#"&$#

%##+0
86264483+7445+64

-

7--%"$$-+


	
	
	


	2",

"&#")%+64493-
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 5


    
	 	  
  



	!

 		
	
 


  
  
 
  	!

 
  	
  	 
 	  



 	 $!
!    
 
   %  

 $!
!  	 
 		 	%  
   

  !  	 	
  		 

  

	


  	
	 	!     	 



			
$!
! 



		%!

   
  	
  





   	 	 


#  

 
 
 

   

	  	  
 
 		 


  
	 	! 	 	  		  
 


	


	





"	
 

	 

  
 
 
 
  	 	


	"
!

	





6 I CHAPTER 1 

""##!"-".*"#
/,/*%

( #  # 
"!% ("#0   !# # !!#)

"!%#"  "  "+ """"#   # "##$" " 

!#*&#$#!""$"#$!!#"## #""+

!' *"""""#""&!( ###$#

( ! """""#"+""""#  " !% !

!"$# !#  # "$ !# ! """"# 

&"#"!""" #"# #$!+






	






 



	




Atmospheric 

(over land, 

sea, and ice) 

Surface: Air temperature, Wind speed and direction 

[over the oceans], Water vapour, Pressure, 

Precipitation, Surface radiation budget 

Upper air: Temperature, Wind speed and direction, 

Water vapour, Cloud properties, Earth 

radiation budget (including solar irradiance) 

Composition: Carbon dioxide, Methane, and other longlived greenhouse gases, Ozone and 

Aerosol, supported by their precursors.

Oceanic Surface: Sea-surface temperature, Sea-surface 

salinity, Sea level, Sea state, Sea ice,

Surface current, Ocean colour, Carbon dioxide 

partial pressure, Ocean acidity, Phytoplankton

Subsurface: Temperature, Salinity, Current, Nutrients, 

Carbon dioxide partial pressure, Ocean acidity, 

Oxygen, Tracers 

Terrestrial River discharge, Water use, Groundwater, Lakes, Snow cover, 

Glaciers and ice caps, Ice sheets, Permafrost, Albedo, Land 

cover (including vegetation type), Fraction of absorbed 

photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR), Leaf area index 

(LAI), Above-ground biomass, Soil carbon, Fire disturbance, 

Soil moisture

Note: Bold font indicates ECVs primarily provided by satellite observations. 

Source: Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) 2011 



0+
#
"!%("#"#$!##!

#!
!)#*##!%!#
! ""#

#	#"$##$#$!
!)#*##	#"

%!#!!*##!#$!+""("#

#,!%#"!%"("#"*#"##$#"*!#*##"!%

 ##!#
"!%#("#("#"+
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 7

 # )!. $#'% * #' $%%$     $

'..##* $#($%$/ ('#.$%$

(. #. '! #% .    ' &  #$&%   0$

'#% $ $' %%   ## %&## % %

 #$!# % #  %#)!$   % 

$&#%0(%##& /5

 !#$' $$$$%$  %  !%$$  %

 $#'% $ #  % #* '/   $  )%%. %$ $   '

%#%'  ' !%$'# &$' !%!# #$

%  &%$/  ('#. $  $%    *  $#

$!)!$/

)%' &%  	&#%##%  '#%!$%

$'# $ $ $%#&%'/ 	 $ %  &%   % (%#

 #$%$#%*% (%#$#'$/$ %% ! 

%$ $% . 	 &$$ % $$%  %  $%  '#%*  0$%& 

$%% $#'% $  # % !&#! $  #% % &#% %

 % $  # %# (%#  #$%$/ &# 607 &$%#%$  % 

!# '%  $!% #$ &%   $ #%0%# (%#  #$%

%( 6:95  7558  # % 	%  %#$  # '# %

#%  1	2  % % 
%%$  % &# ! %#  #

&0 %#  #$%$ 12/ $ !# '% #'$

*# #$ !&%% #$ &#$$!(.(

 (%!# '%$% $%$'$%#$

&#%*!$  $#'% $.$%  %&#$	

 #$%$ '#%$!# /


'# % $%  #  #. %  ' #( #  &%+

 $#'% $   &%  (% % $$%  %   * 

&#  #$%  $ $ # "&%*  *#  * )%$ $ % 

(%#  #$%$/  #  # %$$. % $ )% %  

 #%  #%!&#! $$  #$%	, 
 &%#
$% 

$$  % !#% /  $% #%*. %$ #( # $ 

)% %   $#  % !#%    #%$ %  ! *

 $#'% $  % $!#  %#% $  #   ) 1
72. 



8/ %
$#'
*$%.





	

	

3%	% #( # '% 

 %41 #% #  
#+% .75652/
8 I CHAPTER 1 


"  !

! $6

&!' 
!
#%"&)
$






&!( 






	




'




*$
!
 "


		


	
%"$$#

	")'((&$
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 9

! -(/       #   %  

!#   & % ! ! 
&

! 	. "       & 

$ %  &     	  

   *	+'     !   # 

"!	."  !*-(.+  

  %' 	.   # 

     "    % !   

$#  "! 
'

    ! %% " & ! -(0  

!%  $  
    "  
 *

+

"  % *+  !

%   '   %       

"   % #  % /    % ! 

       .,      ) 

!'

	

$ %		

		
			




!#&"

	
	

	
	%



		


			
	

!	"



	
 	
%

Surface-based stations >10,000 globally 100 globally 

Geo satellites >10 (all nations) 0 

Leo satellites >10 (all nations) 1* 

Product spatial 

resolution 

(reanalysis and forecast) 

10–40km >2000km 

U.S. annual funding 

(average, civilian) 

$3,000M 

($1,000M NWS, 

$2,000M NESDIS)

$120M 

(across 7 agencies, 

USGCRP) 

Note: The asterisk indicates the current capability lacks the required precision and 

spatial resolution for decision support. 

Source: World Meteorological Association 
10 I CHAPTER 1 

Source: UNEP GEMS Water Programme (Printed with permission) 

$#%" 
	




"2010'!	!"! 
 !!+ 

.	
/   !!  #!  #! ! $!  "

!" !$" (7

 "!! '$!2013

 ""'$#!!##!

 " %#

#'""%!!

!%'!*"! "!! 

 !! !! "  #$#   )

 
!#)2014"!


 !"!# #.
/ $#

 "!   !"&*!$ !!)

 )"!
"!


%.

/ '"2020'$



5)))"))',$ " !"  !'-





	


	
.2011/)
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 11

!# '&!#%$%% %"&%%* (%##'#$

$##$ &%  $&#% ! #!*-

 -#'%* '#*%

)!#%01  (. 01$$ (!# '

 %%03-222$$1 #%  $$&#$ (,

,(%#,$% ## &(%#&&! %!!# 

 $%#%(%%$$ -

 
-	, &,
'% 

%%.40	%.41 #% , $*$%%#&%&#

*$ 	0*	1#$!# ' #%  &%

#' &$%#$ '#%,$!*,&% %

)&$'*,%%%&$-

 
-& %

 $*$%!%# # %#$%#&% #%#$%

!% # %
#.# $ , &$, $*$%$$ ,

! #&4235,(!# '(,"&%*

 #%  %  !# !#%$  $%(%#$

%#!% $ # $*$%&%-

 
	#%

%&#$$# (%# %- &! %

# %  $%&#%'
$$'$$ ,,*	,

(%#%'( %! #% 

 %(%#*%$*# -

#*,  % # 4232, % % %%$ # &!  #%

$#'% $ 015 # $'# # % $ %  '  #.

%# !$  (% $'% % ! #$-6  ('#, $&$"&%

$  & !% &%! %$  %  ' !$  #

$&$% $#'% $- % *, &#$  % &  $%

$%%$  %& %  &#-  $  %  & . ..

$!#%$%#&%$  (#. $%, (#.#%*&'$

*   !% (% !# #%$   !# # #' * )! #% #*



5-# &! #%$#'% $$#%#*% 

  *
 *% !# #%+ #& #%$   $#'

$*$%$!#%  &#% /$ %#&% % %%#%  #%

$#'% *$% *$%$-!*$# %*#%!$

 $#'% !%*$# % $ # $% $!$-

6-# &! #%$#'% $,

	



042321-
12 I CHAPTER 1 

#-$ # $!" & "" !"$ $&")-"#

 $ $#$"' ""$$"%$%"$ $

" ! )$ #%  "  !"$  !$)- !"$ 

 #"&$ # " #! $ )'$"& $ $ "$ "

!"") $ $  $ '$" #$$#  
0
  $"

# %$"!"$#! " #$$ ") "$#-54

 &#%##   #"&$ # ##$$'$ $   '

"  $ 6454
$  
#"  % #$%)
   	



,

$"$"$#)#$)##!$)+ "$$)$ "$

 %"$+ $")  ##$$+ #)$#* #"!$   $

& &"$#)#$+#)"#"$ $ $#

"! "$  ) !"& %# "! "$#- "!# $ # "$#$

"   $  & $# !$) # $    !"#&+

" %#$+  %#  .$"   #"&$ #  $ $

#)#$ $""$%&" $#)#$#-11

		

	
	


 )/# $ #"&$ #   # (#$ #   # "$  

!" "# $ )  &"$ #+ + %#$")+ 

  &"$ "*$ # 1
#2-  #   $# ##$# "

 !"$  #)#$# 1--+ $ # #%!! "$ '$"  ##  $

 $ 
  "#$ #"+ $  "$)  #"&$  ##$# 

)  $ ##$# $ )"$ !"")  "(! "$ ")

#"$"$#%!! "$ !"$ + .$"$####$#-

	)  $ #"&$  ##$#  $ & #$  %$) "

 $" %#$$ %"# "$!#-

	) #"&$ # " $ $  ! !" & # $ !" ##

%"#$ #% #  #  .# ")+ " +  '$"

%$# %$    $ ##") " $ #!$ .$! " "# %$ +



54- ""
$  ". "$!"$ &" $$$)#$

!" "# & "'"#$#!"$ $ "$$)#$$#

$"$$)#$!" "#''"### +%$ $+ $#-	 #$

#' $%$ &")(! "$ ")###$# "$ "#%$%"-

55-"3#$ #, &$ $+


$ 
#" %+
	

1#$ +--,


$ #"##+64542-
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 13

  #      $ 

 $$# &


	 #
$$


  #      & 


    #  # 
   
 


"&

	


#%

 
$#

$
#

#$#$#$


#

  
#

$

$$! 
#

 !

 ##$$!

!!


  #         &  

      #  

"&
  



()&

 #"#
#
#

'$!

#(&&$!$

 )& 	    

  
 $ ##'


 & 
     ! 


!%

 ##






 !
14 I CHAPTER 1 

 	$$#"& "$&"$$"$&)

-$-"##024$4331"#%$#

'" "#$)$$" "#$$#

##""$%$4333

 "#$ $$ &&# $ ' "  $$ %$%"

"%# # #$*$ #"# '$ $ #"$#  % 

"-$ #,  5334+ $ $"&"$ 
  $

0
1&  ) %$%"###"#+$ 

 "$  ## "# 01,   #"#+ %#$"$ 

%" 4-7+ " $ %$  $ "  $ "$#

##$'$$$"%"$
####$#,$%"+"

#$$#(%#$"$&""#"#,83$ "$

"#%#!%$. #$-/#"# "#$")#"#,

# # #' $ % "  #$- #"#, ### &"

5+6+5+-##,

	



		


 ###% $#  $ #"# $

&"$ #$  $$ %$# "" "" "$# 

"%####&"%$ #,$#% #*$$

 #$
####$#+)#%#$#%###"#'"%)
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 15

%$#(	""$###!#""""##"

%$!#(.  " '## #" &" $ # !# ##" 

$###( ##!$!$ $	" !""

"!".!'+ # $!#""""#
!#3
84+ #

"##""!63#!!"#""#"%4!%

!# #!## &#  # 	" ## ### # !#

# &! ## # ! ' 	" &$ % !#. %

#" !# ##  # """"#+ !"" !!"  
8 &!

!"# &#  !"" ##   &!  8; ( 7655

!!"#&!"#/""!,&!"+"!'#!%"

###(!#"!""6.929.:;.

!"#$# #"!6

+!#"!%#"#"!!$"#!#"

##!""##&##6"!+"$"##""!

(!!"#!(#!#!(.##!+&!"#(

##76"##$!("'!#"#$#""!###

6 #"  0/!1 #$!  $#$! """- ## "" $

$"&!(#"#$!($#!"$!##". (%#+

"!""$&!#$!##(!#!#

$#$! "" #!#!"  # ! !  "" $#"+

$ #" ##$ # #& # #! #"!#!&!(

7655 # # 7; &! "! ## "  # $"  "

!#("$"""!!"#"$&!.

 ! "$"" # ( &# $!##(  # #

!!"""!"#%#!&""##%!#.

&%!+##!$""$!###3!#%4

! "  # $!"#  # (" !"""

""#&##!(##"#!

( 3&# #"  # # #"! %"  # #& "#

"##!!$"""+784.!!

!#"78$!"##!/$%!#($

# #$! !""" "$ " #  
) $#! "#. 

!!  % "$"#" # !! !#"  7

8!(##!"%%#$#

#"  # ! " $"#!# ##  # #!!"#!

"("#"".
16 I CHAPTER 1 


 !  !"!$!"!  #! 

& $! !."!!  

# "!!   ! !  &  "! /( "

  "   !  !"! ! ! " +! &

 !  	! .3	/ # $ "" 

! !! !        !# *  

!   %! ! !   $ !* 
! "

+!  %!   ! !   !  !! 

!1 37$&2060-!&2050 

!&  !!!*

  !! ! # ##  !  !+&

 !      # "!   !!  

 !!" &!  !! & !*"&(!

 !!(   !   # !#( & &+ 

! ! (  !"     "   ! *  !( 

"( ! 2006 	 "!  !( !    "! 

! &  !!  !$ !  ( ! (  "

.**(   !"(  # !&(  "   #!!/( 

! !& .**( $#( /*

! !(" # !!"!  !

%! !"%! (! !4!"

!  	! .	4/12 !!   !  

 "!  ! !  ! " 	 !

 !
!*	4(! !!++!+!!#+!

!  !"  ! ##  #( $!     !

 !!      ! &    "   !

!! !!($! !!  !!

! "  (&#!!( $("( 

 !"(  "    (   ! !&  &

 !!   * #( !   !&   !

#!'! "!($"!100 & 

$"!"&+ "! ! *

   "! !&( $! ! !

" !    !!   "!( #  !!

!$ ! !  !  ! 	  #    !



12*!!),,+**#,4,
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 17

!'  # 
$

  "          $(

'   &   $  
 #

&      &  $ &

      /&  "  & 

 !! /'"

" "

      "    !  

"$ 
'

    
  ( & "

&!$($'

%
$ 

!

    *''& .210& /--0+ 

    & "  
$  $

 !'

!$ #&
$

 !
$ ' $&


   $(  *" 
(   +&

  &     " !      

 "   
    

  *''&)$$&!&#+'

!    
  
  *,/-+&  "

$$$&"

 (
 
      # 

&$/*''&!

 +'!

!      
  $ & &

&    ' 
    


 %   
 &  "    " "

       &  ! 
  

$     
   $$(


'     
! $ "   	0&

     (! #   !

    $  $  ! !

!
$
 '
18 I CHAPTER 1 

 # + $&# * $,#+ &% % ')&!+ &% &$'&%%+ & + %/+


 ****$%+2 %$#0 

@2 * /'+ +&  % -% &-) '*+

****$%+*2 +) )  %,$) & ')&*** ++ .))%+ ++)

,%)*+% %%$&# % # +05+ ##$ ** %))# *+  %+)+ &%*

. + *& #*2 &% $ *+)02% ' &% #&&) *&,)*% * %"*2%

')&***5&,'# %+)+ &%*. +# )*% *+*-0++&

 %&)'&)+2 . + $'# + &%* &% +  # +0 & ,+,) * #-# ) *

')&!+ &%*&%#&#%) &%#*#*5


##,*+)+ -&$&#*&)+##*),+,)')&!+ &%*)#++&.+)

- # # +0 % ) 5  
 &,)+ ****$%+ '&)+13 ')&- * +

#+*+*0%&'* * &$&#')&!+ &%* &)) #&%. + *,** &%&

$&## $ ++ &%*5&*,$$) 12.)$ % %) ,) %+ *%+,)0 *

-)0# "#0+&#))+%+#&#%%,#$%.)$ %+)&,&,+

+ &%+ %%+2% %## **&%*3 ) %## *# "#0 +& )* %$, &


 +))%% ) 2 + %&)+)% )2 % *&,+)% ) 2 %

 %)* %*+) 5	&.-)2 +&%+ %,*+&,%#)&.) %## %

+#2+, %%&*+2%+*&,+)%). ##-&#-5


% + &%+&+*$ )&6+&$*&6*#'0* # **,*2&%$)&6+&

#*#+)#+ - $'&)+%&%* %**,)+$')+,)*

% #% ,* % &% ) %## * %&+ .## ,%)*+&&5 ,*+ % #"6

)&%)&,%+&) %$%0**,+*+ ##))0#),%)+ %+ *5

 &%+ %, % %)* % &,* &% -,#%) # +0 % $'+* %

+ ,'&$ % 
  + ****$%+ '&)+2 &,'# . + + %.

#$%+ & #6# ') + &%* 9552 + )+0 0)* )&$ ><<@:2 '#*

)+) $'* * &% ) &%# &.%*# % $&#*5  # + 
* )

 $')&- % + ) &) 1&%+# )*&#,+ &%2 + %&$ %# =<< "$) *) *+ ##

$,+&&&)*+&)')*%+) + #'0* #+ #* %+#%*'9552

 %)+&'&)'02+ #) -))&,+ %2%-++ &%-) + &%*:&)+

 %+)+ &%*& + ),#+ &%%0)&#&0&-) +#%*'5&#'

)**+ *'2+
&,+',+2++%+$'&)#*$'# %9;CB

* / &,)*: % *'+ # )  *'  + &%*2 * ')&-  ,%) *&$ 



*%) &*++##&.&)0%$ #&.%*# %. + ))*&#,+ &%5



=?55&#&$&%25 %2
5
%% %25%2
5
)(, *255-)0+2
5 %&)%	55


 ##)2*527,$$)0&)&# 0$")*28 %
	
		
		

2&%+) ,+ &%&&)" %)&,'
+&+&,)+****$%+'&)+&+


%+)&-)%$%+#%#&%# $+%9$) % -)* +0)**4$) 2

% + %&$%.&)"22><<A:5
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 19

"! &"%23&(&+,%##&" &!,

%#$"$&!&%&"$ "$.	!&,%#$&"& "!

*#$ !&&"! "$ & 	 & %%%% !& #"$& $ )"$, 

$ )"$  & ""$!& "!  & ")!%!

*#$ !& 23 % ! !&& )$+ %($ %# %'

" !% 2'$ 5/:3 ( ! !& "$ %+%& & 

")!%!.14"$&'%"!&)"$$'$"#!"$&%,

$&"!""!!$"%!!$&!&% "$!!'$"#!

 & ! %% ! &% 2
3 ! " "! !% %

 & "$%& +%&  2
3 ! "! 
"$& $! "$&,


"$& $! "!  & ! %%%% !& $"$ 

2
3&&#$ $+"'%"!&%$%#&("!&!!&%.

	!&%%%, "$&!"!%'%&""$ !!% "

#"%%&% ! "'!& "$ & '!$&!&% ! !(' "

%%.%$)&&% !%" "%"$&" !%

!('&"!%"&$ &+%%)&&+#+&% %%'%-

"'% ! "!(&"!, $"%"/$&"!/"' !&$&"!%, %!") !

%" #$"%%%, &. 	! &, % ! %"  %!% $ "$ !

'%"&$&& #&&"$#$%!& "$#$"%%%,#$&'$+&"%

$&&" #&%.

 	










58.##""$,"!
"!%!%% .%$$,0$%%! &!"$ &"!

!%&&$"!(-&$ )"$,1		





	
9;-72
'+644<3.
20 I CHAPTER 1 

	    #%    " # # 

   % 
   
   %

 % !#  !


   
       

     # 

$  
'  % 



 #

")''% 

 #
* #


 

#  !
' 
 % "%  



# 
!




!#'




	

	


(
#
%

!!
#



  %
#'

          
% ''%


 
%  % 
  !
  


' 
      !  # 



&

(
!
&%(


 ( 

  
 !    


 
"%
 
%$'


 
  
  
    
  


  
%
%





#

(#



 ! ! 
 
   


# 

 


'


#  

% (
%( 



    # 
 
   

  #
 
     


 !  )''%       
 


*!



(
'

 
  !    #  

 #  
 % 
 
   

#
#



'
OBSERVATION, MODEL, AND PROJECTION CAPABILITIES I 21

 !  !( #"(  # !# !   

$"  # " $" # " #!"

" "!*

		



	
	


	



	 !",!'	'!#&

"
#" " " $!")

  # "!  "!'!"!("&!"

 !# ! $"""! # "!("'!(

 #"#   !!"!!*

 "'!"!"!#!"$"'" "

%"" "!*

  " %  !#!"" !"

""  !" '! ""

!""" !*

 "' !!!  $!#!"(

"'("!'"!!!!!!"!#!

$ !!'"# "
#!(

#"!  %+#" '"'*

!" " """! !" "

!#)

  %""#" %!"#'"! 

 !"$"'%+!"(+ "'#

$! $!!""! " "! $"!*

 !"!!  #" !!!!"-#$!*

.! $"! !!$"!"

# !""!#"# ! #(#

$#""!!#$"!"" "

!" ""!*

	 !",!'	'!#% %"

" ""!-.( """"-.(
"

""!' " "$"-
.""'  "!

  "-!""  ! .""  "' !*
22 I CHAPTER 2 

	


	


	

 *'+)/$ %*+)%* %#&## $+%+&')&-  %* +

 %+&+&-)##*#%*'&%3 *'+) * %+%+ &%##0)  %

+ #&*)-+3',)'&* * +&)'&)+ +- # # +0&) #

+ &% &*)-# +)%*3  * '+) #*& %+  * *&$ *'   )*

.) +) * %&$'#+ + &)  #" & ) # +3 ## & + * +

%* +&  - . % + &%+/+ & + # $ ++ &%* % &*)- +1

') + &%*1%')&!+ &%* *,** %'+)93

# $+% *%&+*$&&+')&**3
+,)#-)  # +0++) **

)&$ &+ %+)%# -)  # +01 *, * +    # * ##+ &%1 *

.##*/+)%# &) % )&$#%#&%)4+)$ -) + &%* %*&#)

+ - +0 % )&$ ' *&  &) % 0 -&#%  ),'+ &%* % )*,#+ %

 )),#)1') & 1%5&)* %,#) *),'+ &%* %+# $+*0*+$++

+*$*" %,%+ &%*+&+%+)&'&% # $+* %#3




	



 	%+)&-)%$%+#%# &%# $+%')&- * *) * &

)'&)+* ++ &,$%+ &*)- # $+ %* % ')&!+ ,+,)

%*3  $&*+ )%+ &,)+ ****$%+ '&)+ .* ',# * %

:88<39;&.-)1&%+ %,&##+ &%&&*)-+ &%#+%+*+)



9;33&#&$&%13 %13%% %13%13)(, *1
33-)0+13 %&)%

33 ##)1*31
	
		
		1&%+) ,+ &%&

&)" %)&,'	+&+&,)+****$%+'&)+&+	%+)&-)%$%+#%#

&%# $+%6$) % -)* +0)**2$) 1% +
 %&$%


.&)"1
1:88<73
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 23

(# #(%( &( $ &#( #' * ! ($ '*&! "$& &#(

&*+'(()%( -!"#('$(D616

	





(+# AI@F # B@@E3 ( !$! *& ')& & ("%&()&

#&'-%%&$,"(!-@6GDJ6+&"#(&##&'($+&

(#$ ('%&$=&$"AIGI ($B@@E>3 ($&($@6AGJ;617

 (&# !!# (%&$B@@F<B@@I3+(!$!"# ("%&()&

&'$@6BD<@6BHJ618

8' "$'( &#( #!-'' $ !$! ')& ("%&()& #

'(('5 9!$! ("%&()& ' &'# ' '( # ( %'(  ' # (

%&$&(+$'3'%(-&7($7-&!)()($#'''$(+((!

/$7
/-!$ (&$%!$# ("%&()&6$&!$!AB7

"$#( &)###"# ("%&()& $& ( %&$+(#'(&)"#(! (

+'&#B@A@:=)&B7A>

19

 )&&#( '("( $ $#(#) ("%&()& #&' '

@6BJ;620  "-  #(&#  ")!(7 %&$ $ !$+ '$!&

(*(-(($)!*&'($$$!#($&$)#@6BJ$*&(#,(

(+$($(&'6(('"("3("$'%&&$'$!'((*#

'("(($&)+&"#-A6AJ*#&'#'#(AII@'3

'!$+!-#&'#("$)#($')#!(&#&(?'')&621



AF6566&#(366&#&3#66$#'$#3'639(($(!"(#B@@I3:

	 
 %! IA3#$6G=B@A@>5A<BBD4	660''!39

&' '$!"(#5'-#(''$#+'#( #$+!'#(#!.($#$

(
$)&(''''"#(%$&(=D>3: &$)##$(($($&!*!$%"#(

%$&(B@A@=&"#-5$('"
#'(()($&!"(
"%('&3B@A@>46

&'$#=&>3
%   &&

=$%##5#*&'(-$$%##3B@@I>46)"") ##3(!63

% 
+'! # #*((,

*()(=#"& 5#'($&$!$!
#'(()(3B@A@>46*#$&!#3(!63
#

 

*((,'     

=$-!(&!#'($&$!$!
#'(()(=
>#$(&'3B@@I>4

(&!#'#*&$#"#(!''''"#(#-3
# 
$

!'%"  + *((,3


E@@AAD@AC=(&!#'5(&!#'#*&$#"#(!''''"#(#-3B@@I>6

AG6$!$"$#(!63'63=B@@G>6

AH6)"") ##(!6=B@A@>6

AI66	#'$#36)-36($3#6
$39!$!)&"%&():

"#%DH3D@@D=B@A@>BI6$%-&(B@A@"&#$%-'!

#$#6%&$)-%&"''$#$"&#$%-'!#$#6

B@6$!$"$#(!63'6=B@@G>#(&!#'#*&$#"#(!''''"#(#-=B@@I>6

BA6$!$"$#(!63'6=B@@G>6
24 I CHAPTER 2 


	




	


		

 %!#%&#$ #!% # $*$%$,

% $$ % %# )!$  !*$  #     $ ' #$.

	#$$$$&# %!#%-' % #$$

$% #%'%* %%%.#  % 	
!!#$ % 

'  $% % # %#$  # &% $%#.22

$ &%(#$% %(#$%$%%%$* %#&%

% # &%$%#.23

% %%%&!!#=66%#$ % #$ '#

%!# 7?<?38669* # %;6 !#%.24 % %% %

#!%&%*#$866:3866>4###! #% $

 $$ %  %(  $*$%% $$  %  %!#%&# %

&$54/85.



88..$%#%,. +,.&%,0 $%# &%$ $

"&% #$%#&# #&%&866;36>,1


	89486765-

>793>7=,
	-76.77=;2866?
	96?:.7.

89..,0# &%&# (#-#'(,1	8, .7486775.

:;3<;, -76.76682(.>7.

8:.' #%.4866?5.
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 25


				
	 		




!

$! 7-8 "&" "   ", 	 !* "$!#"

# ##&!"!#! #!#!" !,!#

 ##* !#$!*%' !$ !#

&! #! " # -6>=5"   """,25  !#$!" 

"$!" " 6>=: % !" # !( #!  #  &!

!#  #& # % #" "#! # #"  #! """, 	 #

$#! " !*  6? !"   %! # !#$!

"#	"($#6,:?$!# "#&",26



7:,,,
),*/(#!"#6=;5.""&"

!!&!!#!$! ""


	

68*,<3755<4+

688:2689<,

7;,,
,",,$*/&"#&!'#"#&! "#

&"#&!'#"#!!$#*!("#!!*0
	

375664*+65,655<1"558=7-565-5>=9-(,
26 I CHAPTER 2 



	
	
		



! 
27







	



"!%# # # ## #   #!$#"

"#(! #"%!" # #!' "#",

%! # "# % (!") ! ' )   &" !" " ! =5

 !##"!%"%!"%!# "#%(!",

28

!%## "$!#" ! # !%#( %!(  #

' !#"##"# ## #!"#""""

#!#!#,29 $!#"#!#%"$!"#

"  !#! # # %!  # % # "!"36><8 #

755<4, #  # "$!  755< "#"  & !!) &

&" ;5 !# % # !%$"   6>>=,30 #& !( 7557



7<, 7565$"$7565?-5,57=@,

7=,,"#!)/&%&"%!")0			
9

375654+9929:,

7>,+	,
,),,"),, ()/##!%#("$!#"!

!##!"#)0

8683755;4+6>:=26>;5*,,)

,,
!
,#!)/"##%$!#"!."

"#!"##$"%! # !#")0
667

3755=4+975929768*,)/!"!#"""""!#!

#!#"#"!%()0
		
8;3755>4+


6>:58)+65,657>1755>
595777*%!#,3755>4,

85,,
,#)/!"$!##!"6><82755<+%!!"

755<)0
		
89),773755<4,
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 27

" % , ;99B- ' %" "  &' & &'!' '# ) "

(!( ' #&&#;<9C<9'#"6'74,%031

' ' #&%)'#"& &#* '' '"'%' &'&*# &

 &# #&"!&&'" %'"%'0 #&&&!#&'&""'"'

&'"'%'*%*%!"&+90:D4#)% '$&'

', ,%&032 " !#%  & )& # $& " ' &' - " '

 "&%  " &$%";99B0 #&&& #" ' "&(&"

" !("&" && "%& '  &' #&& , >B $%"' " '"

,%&033 	" ' ""&( - #&&& "%& , :=9 $%"'034 	" #"'%&'-

'% *% &!   % #&&& "  & " "  % "& ' '

!#('&#' "%"#&&& )&035

	







#("'"  %& &%) & !$#%'"' *'% %&%)#%& " !",

#("'%&0& %#!#"'%('"'# # & ) %&- %! '"

" %&( ' " "%1'%!  ##"- " (" '' %#! ' #('% #

   &- # #* , *'% &%',0  %& " &"#* #)%  &#

% ' &# % %'#"  "'# ' '!#&$%- &# %&& " '

&(%%"'#"%&&(%*%!"0

)%""( ! '"%'#!#("'" %&&#( &"

;999#!$%'#' %, %'! '"%'&#&%)"''*#

&#%0,%;99?&' &"*%#%#%""( !&& #&&

#'%%" %&("% #"1'%!#&%)'#"036!&& #&'%#!



<:00#('%&' 0-2#&%)&&! 1& !&& #&&"%" "-3



<>6;99A7-;9>9:-#/:90:9;B4;99A9<=A:?0

<;00
0'-00"%-00('%#%-00""-
00#!&#-"00" -

8%!"#'"'%'1&'&(%&"':B>@	"'%"'#" #$,& 

%-3=>@-"#0@;;A6;99B7/=>B5=?;-#/:90:9<A4"'(%9@??B-	

:B:>A@B=0

<<00"#'-
00!%-00)""%#-0)&-0-0
0)"%-"0)"

%-2"'"'%'!&& #&&%#!%%"'%%#!'%,"%#"  !'

!# "-3

:-"#0;6;99@7/:9?5::9.")"#% "' 06;99B70

<=0"#'' 06;99A70

<>0"#'' 06;99A70

<?0"'
'#"&")%#"!"'%#%!!-#%  %#"'#%"%)-	





6;99A70
28 I CHAPTER 2 

"#  #  !#  "$ )"# # #$$ $     #"

$%#$$ $## ## $"#$#5%"90;6/37




	







	





		


	

	

	
	
	


! $$ "##$ '")"# %"##!!" %$#

##"$##  $ #$#$%#!$#

 $/"$## "%$#$( ")

$'$ $ #!"$'"$!-$%#,$#

 ##%#$!"$%",$ #!""%$ ,'$"!$$"

#&"')#/

$ #$%# !"$ $$ $ "$'  "  #%" #

# $ $' 97:7 97?7,"" $ !"& %#)$!$/38

8@>@,$"$#($$#$"$ &

!"$ !" /39   &"  #%" 977> "  " "

% ;/: 9,($$);9!"$"$&$ 



:>///",$/,1"# $%#$$#0&"#$98#$$%"),2

	
	:8>5977>6.87=;487=>/

:?/.	/ *,$/,1!$"# &"$"$
!" $$ &#

)9877,			
	95977@6.:;84:;:, .87/87:?3 ;=>-/

	//
&",1#"#%""$'$:7)"#,2	
		


		:=5977@6,
7><79/

:@/$"#&" $####$)5977@6/
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 29

#" #5=<4",40"!"-#&,!$#

#'$&#!'##""!*"&!"6,= !#

 ! ,41 $! 6-9 "&"  # "!"  # "  '## !

!$!( #!,

%!#""#"""!"*!"#

%$!#( # $!#! ",  !  " ""#(

" !*  9< !#  # $#-(!  & ""#" 

!#%( ($ #&-  #!-(!- *  ! # 79 !# 

#  # 5=<4",42 $! "!"$!#" %! #

#!37< !##!#"&%!%!&#!

#""5,=644<* !#7,:5=<4,


	




$! 6-: "&" # "# !# #  $ $ " 

'##,	'##! #!6454&"##!&"##"##



84,
,,"#,*.!##!#"%!*/	




791644<2*45;47*+54,546=0644;475=;6,

85,
,#!%*,,*,!*,"*,!!)*.!#"

+"#!#!"#/	


781644;2+=945,

86,
#!"%!#""""#(1644=2,
30 I CHAPTER 2 

!! ! # #*  4228 0&"#1  4229 0" &"#1+

!!#
 #!'##%! # !3:8:/

4232"&33+7 !# !!#%##3:8:#4222%!+

 #" ! ##!"* "$ " # 
!# ## "#

!$#* (  #  !# "!#,#! !%!(  !# " 

 ##!"&!+

		

! !

		

&  !) !$  % !  #"  !"#!$#$!

#!" !##+!"###*# !""

 ' " ! ! # !  "# !"$#" 

"""  ! '* #*  #!$" '+ " "#%

 ( " "# $" # " #!#( 0!$(1 #"

"#!!#4#!"#""!##!&! ##+#$

# " "#!  "!# #! #* 
4 "  !## $" # " 

 !#$!(,%!$""+

&"$!!#"#!!### #+!' *#

'$ ! %! ( ""( !) !$ " !" (

$#8 !#0$ #37 !#" !1#
!#!" !

"3:22+43# !#$!### #!# !!"#(!"



65+	++!#*-$ #$,$#*."#(!+	%+

!!#!#

###%!#$!"*$(44*4229+
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 31

"%&,($'#:A&"'8@?7&/44+$"&#"#%"'*

 & " %&$#"& '# %' *%!" &  '# " &'!' <? $%"'

"%&"!'"!&&#"&- % , %#! '*"$%!%#&'/(%%"'

&'!'&# ('(%!&&#"& %#!'& &+$%)#(&&'!'&

,  '#% # ) #% !#%/45 !&&#"& )  &# " '' "

("+$' %#"&- &( & %#! ' &(!% *' "& # ' &'

%"%' /

(%90>&#*&'!#&'%"''#""%&"'!$%'(%&"

!#"'#% $%!%#&' &'& " ' 
#%'%" !&$%/46 %#'#"&

&(&'''(%'%%&"+'"'#:7'#<7$%"'&$#&& ,

!0"'(%,/47






	

	




;;/#%"'#"5977?6/

;</
// '%-//!#)-	//"'#"-/%, -"//$"-1'"

( "%#!%"'* &&$#&')'# !'*%!"-2

;;:5977=6.>84></

;=///#!"#)&,-//!'-//"//%&'"&"-1%!%#&''%! &''

"'$# %
#%'%"!&$%(%"'"'%"'#" $# %,%977>4977@.

&,"'&&-2

98597876.87=488=-#.

87/87793$$$/=?@/

;>/1%!"#% .!$'&,%-2&#"'
'#" &%#(" 

%$#%'-	





5&"'#"-//.
'#" !&%&&-97876/
32 I CHAPTER 2 

)'  %'$ $ (!$,$,# # ) '$,) $ )"$(%' ")#

$##)')$#(0 "(*'"#)( (# <::A ($,  !$! #'(248

()")( $ ) '$# ()$'#!$! %'"'$() + $*!# )

!() , .'(0 %*))# ) %'"'$() '$# ()$  ) # &*+!#) $

), ) )"$(%' '$# %$$!2>C $)#)!!.0 ) "$*#) $ '$#

'!( *'# ) <;() #)*'. $*!! )$*"*!)"(($#( $

'$*#?:7;::)'$# 89.<;::2?:!)'#)+()")(0($#

-%'"#)!'))0(*() )%$)#)! $' ),#%'"'$())$

'!(#)$#!=B3;::)%''$,'"#251

,' ) ' +!! $# '#) # %'$) '!(( $

'#$*( (( '$" ")# .')( )) #  $*# # %$!'

$#)##)! ("#)'. '$ ( # $# ("#) ) ,)' %)(

')' )# =::"2 )# .')( $*' ,# !' "$*#)( $

")#' )'%%,)# '.()! ()'*)*' $,)'0 $'"# ($!

("!')$2(/$)('('+$'((*#')#2





	





#'( '.# # ) )'$%( # (*)'$%( * )$ '

)"%')*'(#'(%'%))$#+#'(!$!'.'(0

(#)#*'<3B252

%'#)$!$!!#(*'#'$*)(#'(.=2>

%'#) %'  # ) %'$ ;C?<7;CCB253 
# )'"( $ ) !"'

'$*)+'). 
#-0'(# (+'#-)'" '$*) +"$'

)#$*!(#);CA:(0,)!'*"%#)'!.;CB:(*)$



>B22.)!204#,'$,)$)"$(%'")#05
		


=?8<::B90
<<B:?0$1;:2;:<C6<::B
:=@:=A2

>C2222**'02$ "022#!!02*( '#022!022

$'. #02	"##02*'.022
!*'0	2
02/)$+022!($#02

# 022$"#$+( .02 !$"#$+02'#$02#+( .022$!0#22

"$+04*!#'!).$%'"'$()'$#)$!")#1
"%!)$#($')

!$!'$#.!05

?B0#$2B8<::B91A:;7A;>0$1;:2;@>;6B:B:A2

?:2*""* ##)!28<:;:92

?;2+#$'!#)!28<::C9)#$''%!)!28<::C90*!!''##$)+!!2

?<28<:;;92

?=222*' 022'$,#0#2'()(04$!#)#)+$!*)$#$!$!

'$*)#'$)$#($'),#).3'()#)*'.,))	!.#)'!")

$!05	
A8<::@91;;;=7;;<?2
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 33

  +   &%# $% 0& !#!%%  #$  

$&$"&%)!$ !##*&% $&#(#/54


#


	







!$" $	


F=$ ($(# $')!# %#$%

# &%$ '# %$% %* *#$ %!# % $  # %)% %*

*#$/ $ !# % $%  ( $'# % !# $ )!% % 

 -!#%&#*# $$%%# !$$&%# !$/$ #$$

 $   $%&#- % &#  $ #%0%# 3 &# %  $)  % &#% 4

# &%$$)!%%  &# %75%%&#*% % %

76$%%&#*/
 0%#- # % %(' %&#% -# &%$#

!# %%  %#%$ #  /55$#% 



:9//-	//##%-/-1 %$% 
## &%'#%*

) #6<;527557.% $!(%$  $%&#%$ $&#(#

	

:375594.666;26685/

:://-	


 
	 






	


-
%$$3
#% -(#$*.


#% '#$%*-755<4/
34 I CHAPTER 2 

 &! """ "!") # ! !#  #  "$! 

'#! !$#" !# #!" ! / !# ! # !"#

(#1. !#(###&#(+!"##$!(*56

!+',&" ! % 

!! ! " $	#(++'


%
*)57



	











()#!""##"#("#%!!"!

!"  ! ##) #$ #!" % %! &( ( !

%!#*58 $!0+/."&" ! ##"*


+#! #!" %! # 0.# #$!( "&  ! ##! 

 ! ##!""# ! !#!##$" !( #

#! "  "$#! " %! * #( !" ! ##

"  "!%  "#! !#"  !#  $# !)

!#! $! )  !#!  #! "* !"" %

$!! # ) ##!!) "$#! !)  !#" 

"$#!"* # # ! %!#( %!"%! #

#$!(* 	!""  '#! ! ## %  "!% %



23*$!#*,0..3-*

24*	
  !#"""!",-"!"! !#"

$#$!!$"""""$"#"*"!"!"

"#!(")&"!#""$ #"$#$#$!! )

)#!%!"!$"""$ $!"""*

25*!##*,0..6-*
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 35

+& #*&  $&$((#" ' &'/59 +( ( !#)"( # &"

 " )&" ( *'( $&$((#" *"(' "&'" - ;598

$&"($&&#+&!"160

	


			


	61

 ")!& # &( " "  ## ('(&#$' &#! 9AA>5:88=

#) / #!$& (# 9A=8 " 9A@8/ " ' " ''#( +( "

"&'" &%)"- # *- $&$((#" *"('162  #"(&)("

(' # "&'" )!" !$( #" ( "*&#"!"( " "&'"

,$#')&#$#$ "$&#$&(-(# ##!&)"&("1

&#(#"' # "'" ( ")!&""("'(- # )()&  ##'

&'&1
"$$&#'(# ##((,"#$*# )!'"

&*&  #+1 )& :299 '#+' #+ #" )"&2-& $ *# )!' #



=A1&"&(6:88@71

>81&"(( 16:89871

>91(&!")'"(	2#"( -('(#&(# #+";2!#"(''#"'0

67:88@(#:88A/67&(#-:88A/67
)"(#):88A/"67$(##*

:88A1'#" "#! '+&(&!"& (*(#(9A>95A8!"'/+((

 '((+#2(&'6>>B7#(-&'+(#)(!''"(&%)&)&"('

$o&"(/1
1&"&/"11
#"'#"/'1/3((#( !("

:88A/4

	
A9/"#1?6:8987095::<1

67!&"(#&# # #(-1$&"(+($&!''#"1

>:11*"/	11)!/&'#"/11./11" "#/11	&/1)./1

.&&#/1
#'"/"1 "'$##&/


 
6#& "/#*!&:88A71
36 I CHAPTER 2 

#   !  #   "
  # ! 

2" )'

 
 *#   
  

  # 

 #! #)63

	
	
	


64

.
/
 #


 )  ! '   
    
 


  " 
    
  

 )
*
'!


 !  #    !' 
  
  


#'       

' 
' 
' 


   
   
  

"# 
)65



63) ).2007/)

64)
!"
108.10/'!


708


!!)
10

!!
)
 



  +
,

)

65))%$)'+	
 
 (


 ','	
124.2010/(75-101)
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 37









(&&"$&'$%(!&$&  $&"&%!  +

"!$& & !! %+%&%. !% !%& !! + %'%% $

"&%! ' & $'&'$$!) %%! %.

 6>:5,(&&"$&'$%( $%+&) 6@ 

8@, %  &+ !$ &  &     ($ &"$&'$.;; !%

'% !$&%%! %% $!%,""!$&! %%! % $!%

6, "$!& && ' $/+$ $&'$  &"$&'$ ('% ) * 

 $!'%+  ( ! :5@    %+ "!"'& $% ! 	 , &

 %&, 
!$& $, & , '%&$,   #'&!$  

%'&$!"!'&$+7655.67

&$ $ & $%$ ! % !%$(&!    !  & &!

%'%&"$!&+3?>5"$ &4&&$!) %%! &"$&'$%

  & &$!"%   %'&$!"% + &   ! & &) &+/$%&  &'$+ )

* & !%& *&$ %%!  &"$&'$% $!$ $! 6>55 &!

755;.	 &"$&$! %,&!&&%&%%! %! $!$)$"$% &&

'&'$ !$  +!&! %.


		

 ! %#' % !  $% +!   & %&+ $ "!& &+

%($, "$&'$+ )  !'" )& % ( $%,   !' &

!%&!' &%$!' &)!$.

 %&$'&( "!)$ ! &$!" +! % 3%&!$%, '$$ %  

&+"!! %4 % $% %  6><5, !)  &! $%%  & %&+  

'$&! ,%'%<5"$ & && & . % 

&"!)$%&$'&( *$+!$$&)&% &$&



;;..
.$!) ,
.%$, ...$$!,0! % *&$+

&"$&'$% 6>:5,1

	
				6683755=4.

;<.&$&.,0  )*"&*&$+%'$&"$&'$%	

				8:3755=4,69<58,!-65.657>2755=5895<6.
38 I CHAPTER 2 

$"!)$ &$"#+"!% "$ 168%$(&"!&!& &&

;- $% ! % ! !$% %'$ )! %# ? 6%. #"&!&+

"'!&!' $"&"$+?+"!%8'$<2;<91

$ % $ !& &&  & ! % + 8D@@ #$!&

#$"&+9&"!$%&"'$$!" "$
	
	+"!%.&"'

'!$&!&+$ !%%&")&$&%%&$%'&"!&'$($&+!

&%+%& "$)$ $& #$&'$%1



	



69



@B101 !'.4
!$%!%&$'&(!%%"&$"#+"!%"($&#%&=:

+$%.5	>=@8<::?90@B@7@BB/11
!%.11	$#$.1	"$'!11

!.4!)&&&$!%!*&$ &$"#+"!%35	
	=;=8<::@90>?<7>?>/

11$!$&!11.4&!&'$$!%!!&'$($&+!<::?.5

	
		
		==8<::@9.
;<A:>;:1;:<C6<::@
:<@<?@/!11

%&$.11	"!.11'$$+.!	121!.4!%!&$"#+"!!' $.

'$&"!.!!&!%&+!)$ !!($"! !&.5	
	=:C8<::?90;B>>7;B>@1

@C189!' $%""$&&!&&$"#+"!%"$ * ' )!%#

%")!"!&"$,"!&*%189#$"#"$&"!!$%++"!8'$$!9

&"$+8;7%&!&!%/?7 "%&!&!%9$%!$" !$%%! * ' )!

%#%";.=!? 6%1
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 39






		




70

#$ %$)#")"#$$$

 ) ##

%)$ "#- '&"+"$#$%)$$ %$ "$%"

   "$ $$ ) # ) $  &  ## ) $ #"&

#)#$$!".#$$"##$"#$" "6>551

755; 49-7#$ "#!"$%") $" !$$#$ "# 2%"7.683-

 ($$ $  '  %  6>6516>85 % $# $" #

%"$+%$$#' ""$#%"$" #"$ -71




	






.$$%'#$")'#&"##6>:5+%$$"#

%"$ '$" $# # % $  '"" $!"$%"# " .#



<5-:.)""% "*$$& !$" 

#" $""$" #$"%$ #  &" $$$" !) 

 %$#-%%"&#"$$"& !$" " #$"%$ #-

&)"%"&#$#.#$" !)  %$-$"%"&#$

%%#$$" !)  %$- "%"&#"$$" !

#$ "#%""#"# %$#" $ "$$$%""$#-

<6----
-	%$# +/#$$# #$ " "$$$" !

) $&$)+0
		
762755=3,8:=518;55-
40 I CHAPTER 2 

#+*+* &%)872 ( ) -  ($%* &%  '&#-( ) * % )*&($

*(")873%/ )+ %#) *& %) % ( &%) * / )*&($9

(#* )*(&%- %) % ,/ '( ' ** &%5 )-## )  -,) %

)*&($)+()874


	


*( * #)* # # $. $+$ &+* *-%*/9*&+)% /() &5

#&#)#,#(&)/$&(*%BCA$8(*&( ))#&-&-%*&

)*/(*&A8CF$$=/(&(*)*(*&*CA*%*+(/875#&#

,( )#,# (&)*%,( (* & B8IKA8F$$=/( +( % *

'( &BJGB>CAAD5 %() %*&D8C$$=/((&$BJJD*&(#/CAAG876

*## * $)+($%*) & ) #,# ( ) % $&( (%* /() )&- %&

$!&(%5- *%,((*& %()(&+%D$$=/(8

77


%()+%()*% %& "/#)%# (/%$ ))

()+#* % ($*  %()) % '(&!* &%) & +*+( ) #,# ( )5

&$'(*&** ,% %E8 +(C9BE&$'()*()+#*)&*)

)*+ )*&*E'(&!* &%878
* ) %() %#/'(&#**#&#)

#,#( )- ##.B$/CBAA879



HC87+$$+" %%*#8?CABA@68
2'* %*#85;/#&%# /#(*( )* )

&,(*&(*(%	$ )'( %&+'#)5<DB?CAAI@7FAH>

FDC5& 7BA8BAAH=)AADIC9AAH9ADFF9F6%
8%*))&%*#85; ##.*(*(&' #

)*&($) %*%) / %-($(# $*:< CC?CAAJ@7CCHG>CDAB5

& 7BA8BBHF=CAAI

CGHI8B8

HD878	8 %5;&%) )*%*'&#-() *&*)*&($*(") %) $+#* &%)&CB)*

%*+(/# $*5<
DC?CAAF@5
BIHAB5

& 7BA8BACJ=CAAF
ACDGIE6%8)* %+%88&%5;&#'(&!*

%)&.*($- %,%*) %()'&%)*&#&#-($ %5<


DG?CAAJ@5
BAIBA5& 7BA8BACJ=CAAJ
ADHFAA8

HE8788#*1(5;
%#+%)&) * %&(*  )*&($*(")&%-)*(%

&(*$( %'( ' ** &%+%(#&#-($ %5<
DD

?CAAG@5
BJICA5& 7BA8BACJ=CAAG
ACGIIC6%8 %5%8(( 5;# $*

%*)&%&(**#%* /#&%)5<
BBD

?CAAI@5AJBAC5& 7BA8BACJ=CAAHAAIHEJ8

HF8 #/+(%8()%** &%*&*)"&(5+#/CABA8*(&'+#) &%
&(*&(/8

HG87&#&$&%*#85)8?CAAH@%(%(*?CAAI@8

HH880%,58&$ %858+ %+*58(* (58
#&,#58$ # %58# %5%

8
(% #,#+*&,(CAAD9CAAI8(,#+* &%(&$)'

(, $*(5)*## *#* $*(/%(&5<
	GF?CAAJ@7ID>II8

HI88$)*&(5;%-, -&%)#,#( )5<
E

?CABA@7EE>EF8

HJ888,('"%8
8 ))5;(&!* &%)&+*+()#,#&$ %$&( (5<

	BAG?CAAJ@7CBEGB>CBEGC5

& 7BABAHD='%)8AJBCIHIBAH
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 41

 !	


	



		
	!

	




 	"$$$#)#$#$$'"$$$

$"#$ "$%"24,8>$4,:>3 "$$$

( "$64$$%")&"%#####

#$),80 $'"#""'

)#"#",

 "#"$6>#)$#&#"%#

 $#$%$$,	$#( $$($#$

$($'#,%""$#$#$$##%#$$$

##"%$"$#"#$"%"$ 

"*#%#!%$) $%"$%"$#*"

%)-&"*&"$ "$%"##$)$"#)

7-8>)6544,81



<4,
$,*/'%"'"#&"#.0	

	
74;264493

5;:=15;;6,

<5,,
)*,*
,%*,*,&"$",















	
2*+""$

&"$#$*"%")64553,
42 I CHAPTER 2 

 &$)%&,***)#&%6# -5%* %*,)

+$')+,)2') ' ++ &%2%*#-#)#)#0 ))-)* #&)

$&)+%&%+&,*%0)*+)$ ** &%**582

 #-#) *. ##%&+*+&' %?>==5%* %&%+&%+%+

. ##&%+ %,+&+*#-#) *&)*-)#%+,) *+#*+5

#+ %%0%$  #&** %%+)+ %)%#%. ###*&

&%+ %,&)%+,) *5E@))%,$)&) + #+)*&#*2

&)+ '' %'& %+*2+. )#+ -#0*$## + &%#&) %

 %,*%),'+% %+)*'&%*&*&$#)6*#

&$'&%%+*&+)+*0*+$5 ,)?6>B')&- *+#&#

+$')+,)**+ $+&)+ '' %'& %+*&+$&*+ $'&)+%+

*,*+&&$'&%%+*584,+,)'&# 06)#-%++ '' %#$%+* %

+# $+*0*+$%*+ $+*&+#&#.)$ %;&-

')*%+<++&,#,*+ )&%+)&#+&)) + #+)*

 '#&# $+ )&) *&.* *-)# ') &*.)),'+ %*

&,))5++%&+&,%))0*;>>2B==0)*&<2+$')+,)

 %%+)#)%#%!,$'+&&,+>BG %* %#5



E?54&#&$&%+#5;?==F<35))%5)&-" %27$ ##%% #+$&*') 

# + $&%+)&'&% ?28F=2%&5@;?==E<4?E@:?FD3	55

++.*%5# )27+ # 1 %# $+)(, )*%)1)&$ ** &%*28

	@B;?==E<2
=AD=B3%5025 "#25

&%+%)&25))255 **%)2%55-)27
 + $&%+)&'&% 

# $+%4$ ##%% #+ $*#*&'&+%+ #?%*,)+$')+,)

')+,)+ &%*28??;?==F<4?B=>:?B>>5

E@5455#++%)27
&%6+)$&$$ +$%+&?$ ** &%*&%+#&#)&%

0#%# $+28
&%)%) *4)+%%- )&%$%+# %*C;?==F<5

=A?==E5- ##&%# %+++'499...5 &'5&)99+&9>DBB6>@>B9C9A3%5

&#&$&%255#++%)25%,++ 2%5) # %*+ %27
))-)* ## $+%,

+&)&% &/ $ ** &%*28


>=C

;?==F<4>D=A:>D=F5

EA555
%+&%%	55##%,)27 '' %+*#*28	

>;?==D<4FD:FE5
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 43

!)'(*&
  $'"     !

 $#  !$%#  

 !  &85

	



         # 

	0*.,,2+'

           .- # 

"
.,#'

        

  ( ('   
 



/)0$*
.$&!

 1)2$+ 
# .-,,'       


'

	

01'



31'!%
%



#
!'

  !

 ! "'
44 I CHAPTER 2 



		




!")#(+'.(##)!.)!$!!+!(1')$,'"##

)')0$'-"%!0($*)%#))$)'"#'$)%!#)1

'"#'$)(()$#%'$+((#%($)$($"$)$('+#

%'$)#($')"%')*'4*'827:5#%'%))$##'1





	







86

'%))$##)!/$##()'($,(#'!#)+

)'# (# 7=;60 # .'( $ +' %$()+ # #)+ #-( ,'

"$' $""$# # ) .'( %'# 7=961  866 ""3.' # :66

""3.'($.)(4$#)$*'($&*!%'%))$#5'()#($*),)

) !") $#)$#( $ ) ! # ' !($ "')# ($*)1 

-)#) $ )( () +'( '$(( ) '$# *) +'( $*) 866 "#

()'4*'827;51$!#()*(%'$)(##)($')##

$)'#.(($#$+'"*$($*)'#')'86960##'(#

) (+'). $ '. -)'"( 4)#2.' '() +#)(5 $+' ,()'# '



<:111#*!.0
1)#*('011'(011
$011
#01'#()))'01

$'$ #0
		
	
				
	
		

8676*'##!#(+,'%$')4 
)$#!$')$'.!")

##	#())*)0867651'(',(*#.)$)

')'.$#(1 
)$#!$')$'.("#.2))!!0

0$')%')"#)$#'.1
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 45

(($&  ' '""(!"&'" ')!!&$&$((#".""

$$#'(*'(#(+# $&$((#"'(&)(#"087


			



	
			


  

 &%)"- # "#! #)' - '(&#" &"  (( )''  ##' '

"&'"'(&0$#&(  ##'*"&' &#!"*&

# ''("#"*"(4-&"(9@?8'.(#'*"*"('$&-&(+"

:888 " :88=0 ' ' ( '(&#"'( "&' !#" ( )  '( #

-&#!(#&# #  ''(&' 6""&' &#! " *& # '' ("

(&*"(' $& -&" ( 9@?8'. (# #*& '*"*"(' $& -&" (

9@@8'." !#'(("*"('$&-&&#!:888(#:88=7088

&#(#"' # "' " &*&  #+' - :8;8 " :8<8 ')'(

"&'  ##" " '( & " "(&  &. ' '#+" " )&

:19?089 "#(& '()- $&#(' " "&' " ( "("'(- # ("1-&



?>000#"+.00*" "#&.0000*""	)&.0#&.000# #.

"00*" '(.&#("'",(&!$&$((#""&)"& # 

+&!"0#'(&.#&'#$#"!(&'"!(## #'#'(!(#"#,(&!

 !(*"('.:>5:@$(!&:898.
%)&(&'.&'.&"0

??000#"+.00*" "#&.0000*""	)&."0*" '(.

2&#("'"!"",(&!$&$((#""&)"& # +&!".

&(

/'(&.3)!((6:89870

?@0
"(&"(#" "#&#"'(&)(#""* #$!"(.



	


6#& 

"/) (#".
#*!&:88@70
46 I CHAPTER 2 

&##"# %#" ## " #!"#" # !"  !"" ! "#

!#&42634322+90


 "


		

#!##

"$#&!"##&!"#"###&!

 #   ! !"" !  ,#! !( #! %!

!  # !#  !$#"+ !""  !#( ! !(

""##&##!##!"#!!"!##

"#!&+

$%!#(!"!"+"!$#

$!!!#"#!#!!!%$!"'

(!"##!(!"+91 !#!$#!"&'!%!

"'(!"!$#!#(!""##!$#%!(#(!"

 # #   # #$!(+92 !( (!" %  !

! $###!%!""#!(3:92"%$!!#

"!#!#!%"+!'##"##"!(""%"!"+

 " !! # "# $! !# !( (!" %! %! 62



:2+&#+042321+

:3+
+
!)$)	)-%!#$""#!#

#!!).

47)+7042281*837/856+

:4++$)	














0#!#"##$#!$"#

%#042251+
CURRENT CLIMATE CHANGE SITUATION AND TRENDS I 47

#%!' " ' % '*! :BA< ! ;99:193  % %)% &! &

+#%!!  <9C %('"! ! !!( )"( 194  ' "& #%"'

!%&%',!';:&'!'(%,")% "&'"%195

	




!"% '"! "!  ' ! '%!& ! ' !' ''& %

" !7
8%"%&#"!&',7
8&&&!''"#!!!

"%"#%'"!&1

''% (!%&'!! " (%%!' ! ('(%  '2%'  #'& !

"(& '%, '" '%, '%!!/ +%&&/ ! "('% ')'& "!

!!!&1

!!%/!"% '"!"!'%"!!" #'&" '!

'' & (&( "% !% ! 2'%  &"!2 ! & !$('1 

%!"!"% '"!!&!(&0

 
")',"'"!!&!'#%"',"%'

)!'&711/%'(%!#%""""&8

 
"&&&& !'"' #'" '!&"!(%!

!)%"! !'&7(%%!'&'(& ''"' #'"&)

%&!&'"% &(%"!"&'%&8

 (%'"!'%''(&'"!)%"! !'/&""2('(%/

"!" /!")%! !''"%&!'" #'&&&& !'&

 
" '"&!''"&(##"%'!',!!&&&&!'

"&'2!'&"#%'(%#''"!"#'"!&

 &!%"&! "&!(&'"#%"'"!'!( '

!&(%%!'&!'(!%&'!!1

 !%&'!!"!!,"!"%#%/',#"!/"%

 #'%$(%&&,!'&&%"&&!!%&!,)&'%%,"

 '%&)"#,)%&&'"%&1

 
!"!
')'&'"%&&%&#"!&&'" '

!&!&"#%'!%!'"!&!%(! '2

%'%&&1% ,"%#&"!!%&78(!



B<11	&!1%-%/3%"('%$(!,!'"'&!"&'%/4



>7;9:980AB6B@/":91:99@5&::?;>299B29:9:2>1

B=1% ,"%#&"!!%&/
	











7#' %;B/;9:981#"%'

#%#%"%'%" !1

B>117;9::81
48 I CHAPTER 2 


!&#
&






 '

 	
!$

!


' &#
&- "(



 

 
.

 
!
*



"

)96



54'&

 
$(



 
!&+


!
$

$(


!&!

%
&
 '

!


"
&"
&





!

 

 
&"


!

&!
&
"
',"""'
'

/ $33&31220'
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 49

 
	





	


%  %$  (%# '%*+   !# &% +%+

 #   $!#%&#*$'#(#'

 % $+ $&!!$+%+ '###,&$+%

   % &%  $  %  )#% % # %$*

)$% #$ &#  $&#%* !# $  $  %*$% #% (

'# %#$ &#$1-42,97




	

 $&$$    $"&$  %$ !%# (  &$  #+

(# % !%* %  !% %  % %$  %  $  (,

%' # "&%  '# ( ! #-%# #$! $$

 !%%  '# &  %  %%+ (# ! %%* !&

$%%&% $#(,
 '#%*$$#($!#+$&#%* #$

# %&!# $$ +! %' $  ,



:8,!%# ,
,&##+ #,	$!#$ +
,%$ +$,

#%*+ #%, #+
$*#$%$+ *+,	$!#$ +

*
&#$+#*%
,#% + 
 $*+)#
&$!#+#(

#+.#( # #'&#%**$$$&$%%*$+/		



	
	

		433+ ,471&*9+5336293870938:,
50 I CHAPTER 3 

'

 
( !)


 $"!(

"!%% % 

 
($!$

   !$(*

$#  

 !$%%" 	 	 

%(
$


 
  &"

!0, 


  ( ! 

(+

 	
("" 

%%

! (

 

(

!!

 $ ! 
        (


  "!    "

*

/)-+(98


 " $ (





21( !%



	

*%(('

%.,,2+(
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 51

	
$!" 		"#



    

Malawi Bangladesh Philippines Micro states Sudan 

Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Senegal 

Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Zimbabwe 

India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Mali 

Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Zambia 

Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Morocco 

Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Niger 

Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico India 

Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Malawi 

Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Algeria 

Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Ethiopia 

Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Pakistan 

Source: World Bank 2009. 



 '%)  (%# &#$  %# %$  &

$&#%)- $  !#!%%  # $$  '#) !%%#$ 

%#% $%$ (%# $&!!$ $&!! #% #&%&#+ $#$+

%#$! #%% +& $&!% +%%&#'# %-99

%#$)%#% !# &%'%)+$($"&&%&#

$#)!# &%'%)-	!#%$%%  $&!!$(

 % #$ )$%% 62!#% % %#$$ )

4252- #&%&#
#*%  %%% $!#%$

%%(%# ##&%&#$% #$72!#%% %%-

 (%# $&!! #%$   %- 	 #+ #$$  ! !&%  #

 &%! !# '%$  $$ # (%#  $%% -100

((%#.#%%#$$##- #%
#*% 



99-#) #!$ #$042321-

322-

	042281-# 

!#$!%'$ (%# % #%
#*% /	
 %

 % ## # #%#&!!)%% -#!# #
$

 %#&% % %33%&% $ %% '#% %# 

%$!%,%%&' !%  %#%% 

52
&% 3
&)+4228-
52 I CHAPTER 3 

'%$')( )) ,)' ($')( + '+# *% ) *( $ ,(),)' $'

'*!)*'!%'$*)$##%$$'*'##'*'!$""*#)(3$')#<;

%'#) $ %$%! ,$'!, $#(*" $$( '') . ,(),)' ))

#$#)#"!($'((4*(#$'#("(3101

'$,#%$%*!)$#(#'(#"#('$"'*!)*'!0"*#%!0

#*()'!0##+'$#"#)!*((#'(%'((*'$#,)''($*'(3


#'( +'!). # ## %))'#( $ %'%))$#0 "!)#

!'(0 '(# ( !+!(0 # #'( +%$)'#(%')$# ' ($" $

) "$() ') ,.( # ,  ,'"# !") ,!! -')

($')(3$)((#)"(!+('$*#()!!")#'($*'

-%))$#(3 -%))$#( )) ' *#") $' !)' (##)!. $# 

'%) (( ' ! !. )$ ! )$ #()!). # !'. ,  ())(3102

($!*)$# $ ')*! *( $' $,#'(% $ ,)' ( !'.  (##)

((*$'!$!$+'#"#)('$*#),$'!3

'$"<A@;)$=;;?0)+'%'%)'#,!,)''($*'(

# #$')'# ' '( . "$' )#  )$' $ )'2 '$" !"$()

>0?;;">7.' )$!(( )# <0;;;">7.' # =;;?0 ,) *')' '*)$#

-%)3  '# +!$%"#) #  ()")( )) ),#).4$#

$*#)'(0 #'!. ! ) $#)##)0 ,!! -%'# ,)' ()'(( . =;=?0

###$*#)'(,!!#-)'"(').8*'>4=93

103!##

,)' !+!( # "#. '+'( # ! ( ,!! ! !. '( ,)' &*!).0

-'),)'$'#(((0#'*+!!.'$%$,'3



<;<3$'!	!)'#/)$#0	




8$'!	!)

'#/)$#0=;;A93

<;=3!!'($!05)'*').0!$!)'
((*(#!")#)'2

.)$$#!)!).06.#$)(%)
#)'#)$#!)'."%$(*"0$'#

#+'$#"#)
#())*)0!")#)'*').0*!.=;0=;<;0$'"'

$$""'#
#*()'.$*!$'3

<;>37
4'#!0)'+!!).#'07
4'#!%(#

'%(
''.0))%277"%(3'3#$7$7'%7,)':+!!).:#:'

8((=A*!.=;<<93')$'%'2$*)0!%#0($#( ).!%%

 ,/17
4'#!3$*'(2#))$#($#$"$""(($#$'

'890(1!$!#+'$#"#)*)!$$ =;;;8=;;;900

')(#0
$#$#0<AAA3
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 53



	
54 I CHAPTER 3 

 "#  # &!* # !!' $"  &#! "!#' !""

!"%#%&#!!"$!"#'"

&#! "!#' 1$! 6-62, ! " -#!  # &!." !

#!# &#! "" $#  "" "" # 9 !#  #"

!&&#!!"$!",
'!#"#""

##!##"$"#'&#!"#!",

	



!" %!#'  !##  ! %#!"!#

!#"%!!!"'%$#!"#!'!%'

 !$&#!, "  !"$#*  $! %" !  # !#" #&

4/'!#6/'!*# $!"'#!!#$!",

"$-!!!#:8!##!"!-

,$!!#!!".'"!-!"!#&-#%&!#

%##'"*##$!!#!&#!$"'"'

68078!#,104
"#!#'"#!###!$#"

##"%'!!-!$#$!!""#%$!#'

# "  $# !##,  ' ! #"* !$#$!

#" # '* &  #$! " #  %!#" 



437,$"
,*,"#!(*
,	&"*"*

	
	
	

	
1#+#!##!#"##$#*533:2,
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 55

#$#&&"!0 '$ :1; #&'$% & $%'&% "! $"%% " %& #$"'&

56"$&"#!!,!0105


!"
	


	


	 

 )&$ "!%' #&"! ! )&$) ! $ ( !

!$%!"($& -&"!&!!&2%)&$$%"'$%(!$%!-

 !+ %  $%'& " #$%%&!& $"'&% ! !! ! '% #&&$!%0

 ("'  " )&$ %& & &" ( ! "%&. "$ * #- $"  &

$!! %%'$!&$1+$#$"!!!##$"* &+977=-

)%"'&::; :-)%% ')&$%$!%"!%' "($&

% #$"0106



87<000&-$ +"$#%"!!$%0$%!&&"!&"&%"$"! $

8>-97870%"!0(!%&-	 '&-!"!,-3" !"$!/


!&$&! &%! !&!&"$!("# !&!#$&"!%-4

"$!#$
"?@5'!%/$!("# !&!-977>60"'$/"$!0

87=0




	5!&
&"!%

!($"! !&$"$ -977=60
56 I CHAPTER 3 

"  % "!' &!" %"  !!#! -! "!) !)

 #"!."$%" "%$   "

$#" !+
' "#!! "%"  !# ! 

" "+ " ! #"   %!  

 #"#   !!  !%"        #!"  #!*

"" #  #!"  %!"%"  #"! $ ! 

" "!!'!"!*%" !"" $ " ""! !

!'!"!)!!$ "" % !+
!#"#!!%" 

"%" "#"  "#"!  "+

	
	

"  !# "' ! #" "   !  # !# "' 

$"+	' "!"%%# #%" 

 !#  %"  !#! "' $+ 
$  &" "  !#!""'

   ' !!#!+ 
!  ! % % ! ! " 

# ""!  " ') !#"   ! " !# '

! " !"$ "!!  !# +


   %"  !# "'  "!   " ( " "

!!'$"$ ""& "!!#!

' !"!   !  "   &#"  %" 

 "!+ 
    " $ "%"  !# "' $!

   "  ) !#"!      # $ "

!# "'  ""!!'""$!)%

"# !""" !# ! "#"(!"$'!!!

"$$ ""$!+


!!!""!$ # !"

%" !# "'!!#!+
  )%" !# "' "! # #'


))
+ 
 #"    "  "107!


##  )
#" !!!"#! $ '"

 !" "$+  "!  "',# ! !# " " # 

'   #! !# ! #"  !!!") #"   $



0/3+
"  " "%!"1//2'"# #
!

" "$ "" !%"" """"+


"#" (!"#! "&" %" !""

  ! '+"')"%!"! " '!""" "

" "  !"" " !$!%" !""

 #"% +
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 57

###$+
&"$$"$ "$""01+

 5648/5654 %#-108 
    $  " "$ " '$"

&"$#%"$) "$##$ ##$& "#$

.$" #$$##)$$&#-
##

$ %$)   ( $$#+ ' %$$)  "*# 

"$)'$ "$"$#-

$  $& $ ##$$#  '  &"$

 "  ) 
/ $$ #%"#  #  &"$

 "$'$"#%"$)"$"& "#-


			




 $$
/$$$"%"$)""$"$)$

#$$%$'$"#%"$)#"$
#$"$)$$%#,

 & 
.$")$$$$

"""# #$)$$#$###+ "&#

%$###+ ""$*#"$#$ "&'$"

#%"$)"#

 %#"#$$$&"$$&$"#$#

0--+& $#+ $$"$+ "$

$""$#+"(#$"'" "$##1

 ###$###&  ""#$$#% "$ "$"

$"$#$,

 $+!%$)+"$"*'$""#%"#

 $) $$ $#$'$""#%"#"$



 & ." #"#%#$'$"%#

##$%#$"+"%$%"+

&#$

 %" ) "$#$$ "$

#%#$'$"%#



549-$5648$6447	$#%$"*$$+"##

%$"*$$"#"% $3544 ")"$$"$")$$"

2"#$"%$+#%"$)+"#$*$###$$"%$")-2"##

$"%$"*$#%$"$)$5654$6449#%$"*$

$-
#%#&")"""$#256482"256542%#-
58 I CHAPTER 3 

 (%#%**$%("(1$*($)&($*1)(*%$

-*(()%+()

 )"))%$)"($(%#*$ ***)$%*(

%+$*( )6( %$"-*(()%+(#$#$*.&( $

:1$, (%$#$*"(%** %$$/1%"% "

+(,/:;1$$))""/+*%( */1$+#(%+)

( %$"%## )) %$)1$);*%())%5( &( $

:)(-*(()%+();'+ */

 ,"%& $9" $*($/*#**#))/

","*%)*" )"%$5*(#-*($$, (%$#$*")+( */

$#$*&"$%(*$* %$

 ) $"))%$)"($(%#*$ ***)$%*(%+$*( )6

( %$"-*(()%+(#$#$*.&( $:1

$, (%$#$*"(%** %$$/11$$))""/

+*%( */1+(+%"#* %$1$+#(%+)( %$"

%## )) %$)1$);*%())%5( &( $:)(-*(

()%+();'+ */


	



$/ -*( *(%+") ( ( %$" &(%"#)4 %(*/ &($* % *

-%("<) &%&+"* %$ " ,) %$ )( ) $)1 -  %,( #%( *$ A=

&($*%(*6)"$#))4($)%+$(/-*( ))+)(&(* +"("/

( * " $ (  : +( @5A;109-( *)#!%( ( ,( ) $) (%))#$/

$* %$"%+$( ):*$%(* ($ "( ,()2$ $%(*%$%

 ,(;1#%( *$ *%)%$$/%*(%$* $$*4 $%$% *&( #(/

(%")%#) )*%#$()%+(,(  " */$*.*(#)**$

" *% "%% $1" #*5("*$) $&( & ** %$$.&*

*% $() %$)*(+* %$4 (/ $ "$) - "" ,  ) # "( * *(%+

 $() $ #$) %( (( * %$ -*(4 	%-,(1 -*( &(%!*)

*#)",) $   ")&% $* %( %$" *4#)1 %( .#&"1 ( %*$



>=C4*()*%$1'+* %)/)*#))((%+&1*+(")%+()$*

$, (%$#$*1
1(*%( 1%+*( 4()$** %$%$/""$) $

*(%,($$ $( 1&()$**3%+*( $
$)* *+*%
$*($* %$"

 ()/#&%) +#37%$(#"%(( 3
 * $*)%+()+()83

1%$$)+(1?C%,#(?==B4*(%#3%%$( +"*+(

($ 0* %$%*$ ** %$):?==A;4'+)***)4
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 59

"
 
! 

$

 



  
      
 $

 #




 !


"
%

 "  "  

  
 


    " "&$  
   


       
 "  

 
#  
   

"#  " 

$110
##

#
 

 


#

$


	






(('$$
$$
#
	



%	"#)''*&$
60 I CHAPTER 3 

"&% $#  #$ &#$   #!#  &%#$ ( 

#$*'%% #$ &#&#%*$ #%$-%%

 '$   % %( #  &%#$ $& $ % ! 

#%#+ # %#*+ $& $  
 + !#'%  '#%$ # 

$%$&$%%&% $&!! #%$$  #%

  %#$ &#* #$ &#$-444 )$% %#%$+ $!*  

 %% &$!#%#$+* %#(% % %% % $

  ( #$ &# % $%#%$ # $- !$%#  &%#$

*$% &$%$$# ## %%(%#.$#

#%$ %   # ' # %#$, +  %$  % %$ 

 '# %# $$&$+ (%# #$%#&%&#     #$*

%%#%' (!   ! % !#$$&#+ # %#%   %#*

 # %% -445  $#    &$%#%$ % ! %%

%#%  ! #%  %#% $  %  #! $%#&%  

%#$ &#* #$ &#$,  $# (% 	#  	#+ % 

!#%#$ ( &* *# -

 !##* $%$ %  %'  %%  # % &#%%$

$&## & !#$% &%&#(%# &$$(%#'%*- $

 #$% & %#&$%   !#%#$- * $&#%* & ($ &

%   &%#$)!#)%#(%#$#%*#$ #%

% &%#% $ %%#%+  #)!+ #%% #* %#% $+

$% %$ $ % % %#%  '-446 % *#$ ' $

*$%$  &%#$&#.$$% %%$ 

%# # ( ! !&% $    $ %  % %#%  %#

 #$-  %%  % $  ( #( %( %  #

 &%#$ % !*$$'##.$*# ! (#$

# $%#&% #!  #$%# &#$$ ($%## 

%#(%#$-447

 $!#% $$& #$$ (   &%#*/$  ##$ #  *

 %#$ &#* (%#$ $%   #!  #%$-

% #%!& %  + #)!+'%

"&* %  $!&%$$ % &#$  %'#


 '# %$% %* *#$+ ' %#$##$&$83 5   $



111. 
/ %% # Water Security Program Strategy, April 2010. 

Available from Erik Fleischner, HQUSACE LNO, United States European Command. 

445-*%-153442-

446-
#* #!$ #$153432-

447-
0 %% #%#
&#%*# #
%#%*+!#5343-
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 61

)'')%'. )%$3::< %''((*("! )
$% 	("$ ( )) (

&)) $ $() )( ()'$ $%'0 $.0 %*" %# #%'

%#&")*')'""$!)%',)'"+"($'(()(/%

)("$%+,)'3$("(%"%%!$)%''$(%*''$

"%$)()"$)(%'',),$$))*$,)"$(3

( "#)4'") ()'((( %&$ *& %&&%')*$)( %' %$")4

&'+$)%$$&4*"$3('&'%"#('((%''$$

+'('( )% ) $%))$ )" $ &'%+$  %##%$ "$* %'

*"$ *")*'( % %%&')%$3()%'. (%,( )) +$ %*$)'( ,) 

()%'.%%$"),""%#)%)')%$%)),)'((*(3

)'&'%"#(''%$/(5,!&'%"#(6,'*')'

%#&").)$)%$)')),%+'.'$)).&(%!$%,"0

,%'! '%(( (+'" (%%4&%")" *$)( % $".(( (#*")$%*(".0 $

))'%'$/,)'(%##%$'(%*'3::=
%' *$#$)"".0#%()

'$$)%$("!)%$ )-)$)% )'*''$)(*()$"(*'

,)'0 #* "(( ) %$ '$," '%*$,)' '(%*'(3 $

$'($"#)+'").$ *)*'"#)*$')$)($)%)(#-

%$".%#&%*$()*")(3$)"$%,0,)'#$'(++"%&

#%"( $ )%%"( %'  ()" "#) ,) !$%,$ ((%$" $ "

."(3 $( $ ) +'"). % &'&))%$0 -)'# +$)(0 $

$'(( $ ()%'# (*' $ %()" '%$( '( )%$" ((*( %' )

+"%&#$)%).&""."%$4"+,)'$'()'*)*'3'%(),$

%#&)$ *(( ,"" %# &'%'((+". #%' *") ( #$( %$

)%('(%*'($'(3

 %'#' '($) %%*)'$%"  '/ '&$)0

"(%$
$"0 ()) ))2 5*').( $ ""4$%#&(($ %$)%$$

,$+*")/$("+$'%#0&$().1&')&)*"".

$ ) &'%(( % %+'$$1 $ %. ) &'%))%$ % *$#$)" ')(1

+ (( )% '(%*'( $ ) ( $(()( % "1 $ $) $

$+'%$#$),($%))'#$)")%)'")$,""4$36117



::<3()'2$0%$%(&*)(+'")'(%''3

""'3%#0%+#'?0;99?3

::=3'($))%$.'33))%)(!%'0)$7'#$0
;99983

::>3)&'%$$0:??=3
62 I CHAPTER 3 


	
	

 '!&!"&%)'0%&&"(&.%!'"

' #%'(%%&&"('& '%!+#%!&! '!" '&'

##%"+ ','!'"(&!,%&"0&!&'#"'!'

'"! !,"''!&'''!'"!&(%',0

!& %, (!%*, % )!. ! * ). "%

"!&$(!& "% ' #"'. "!"  ! "%# *"% & *

!"* '0 "%# "'"!&. %)! ,  ' !. ! 

''"&!'%%'"%&.)!"(!'%&.*"&&'#"!'&%"!,

 '%& ") (%%!' & &(% )&0 '& ! %)% "(%&& ! 

)&!%&('!!!!'%!'"!"(!%&0

 '!2& #'"!!'"!&(%',*'% !,

'& #"'. "!"  ! "%# !&''"!&. ,' "&' (%%!'

 ' %&% && '" (!%&'! ! " '  ' '&0

"! '!#,&&&&& !#(--0
!&&'"

!  ' #&0 )!'(, &"  ', '" "%&' %!. *!&.

' #%'(%.&).!&'"% !'!&',* %0('(%%'"

&'!(' ' !'(" ')%'"!&!"*(!%*,%.&

,'.  #"&& '" (%', #%'. (' ' %'"! " '& &'& &

%'!0%'&*% !0	'&%'''&'&(! !'"!''

!)',*'%'"%&%''""!'%&'&0

! *' ' #"'. "!" . ! "%# "(' %"  '&

#,&"%&."!'"'%!.& ,&'%,0" "(!'"'"'"!

*( !'.*'!,%'!',.'"!&*%&('%" ( ! "'"!&.

('(%&.!#%&"!'&0118(*"%% !&!(!%&'!!#%"&&&

"%!*', '1!("!'',#&0

	! &"  !&'!&.  ' ! * &%) &  '%' ('#%.

+%'!'!&"!&'*!'%&.'!%"(#&.!!'"!&0	!"'%

&&. '!*&  "%"'%'(%2&*#"!" &&

&'%('"!0 & !'(% *#"! " && &'%('"! , &"  &"*1

'!0! %! &"%'! ''&"(!'!& (&& %&!

%"(! *'%. &' "! *'% ! !'%(. +%'! & ) %&



88:0"%&(&&"!"'!'(%"#(--&! ,&'%&&/" *.

3
#!%'&4!	

			5*"%./
''.%"*!

!" #!,.977;60
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 63

! ! '!"	!-  !!! .++(" (

 ( 
!( (   /+   $! $   (

 ! !  "!" " +119 $,& !  

#"! "! "!#! ! " +

!( !  "!&  "  !  "       

!&-  "!")  "  "!  ! ! " 

 $$$+

  !   ( &(&(  !& !


! "!&+! &$!!&!&+($(

!&       & ! !! 
 ! ! ! (

   $ !! !!&"&!  +!

$& !!" "!&( "!"!

! !!& !! !! !&
! ! .  !

!"  " (  !#!&  ! (  ( 

!! /(! !!!!&!+

 ! !  !! "  !!& & ! "  !

%!&  !  !"+   !( ! " !  ! !

&!#!- $$!2011(%!& !

 "!&"!
" $!("!!

! &!,   !(  !!  
 ! "!&+


 ! !! "  ! 

 ( ! " !   + &    !  ! 

" !"!& " !+



	



!" !!"%! ("

! "&! !&    "!($ "% !

 !!"*

 
" $!#!&

 
""!""!

  # !&

   "!&



113+	!!"(


		

	



 .2003/+11+
64 I CHAPTER 3 

 	#'(!)%'$!"(

 	#'("')$#

 "%)( $ )( $#(&*#( # $#!.  *#'()$$ # )'

%'$%' $#)-)4#+'$#"#)!1 ($$4*!)*'!1 $#$"1 $+'#"#)!1

)34)))'"#(+*!#'!).1'(!#1#%)+%).3

+!$%# '$#(  '# *) &*!!. ')! !") #4

'!)((*(3$#$""$#')!((*(,)'3


	


!") # ". +  '+' ) $# ' )# #. $)'

$#)##)3 $'# )$ 	 @ %'$)$#( $  "#"*" #'( #

)"%')*'$>3A0.><?<1'$*#B<<1<<< ">$*!)+!!#".

'*#3

+'!"$!#()*(+((((#(#'$%.!(*#'

%'$) *)*' #(1 ,) '(*!)( (* ( )$( ($,# # *'

?4B3120 ( ).% $ ()*. )' -!*( ) ')!/)$# ) $

)$#! )"$(%' '$# $' #!*( ((*"%)$#( ( $#

!$')$'. ()*(3 # !)'#)+ %%'$ ( )$ %'$) #( # )

!#)$)'$,#(($#:*'?4C;3121

( '  "$' ($*' $ !. %'$)# $'  !' %'#) $ )

%$%*!)$#3 *' ?4D ($,( $, #( # $# )"%')*' #

"()'. ' %'$) )$ # ('(5 ) %$)#)! # ) $#(

'$*# '3122 ## )"%')*'( # ,)' !+!( # "#. $

'5(! (!($))%'$*)+).$&**!)*'##!#('(3



=><33('1
3133*!!$1#31+#!*/#16$$4$#$"#

!")#"%)($#'*!)*'2##)')(((("#)1=EE<9><D<17




	
1?B<:=@B?;2><BC9><D?1$2

=<3=<ED8'()3><<A3=C@@1$+"'><<A3

=>=333$'#)$#133
$#(13,.$13	3'*( 1
3'''13'()#($#1

3$)#')13 !#3"$!$1,)$#)'*)$#('$"3'#13)#1

3#13,!13##)'"13'13*"'1#3*! '1



:><<B;3%$'))$)%')"#)$'	#)'#)$#!

+!$%"#)3

=>>3*#)!316'4(!'()'*)$#$"-"*"('()%$)#)!#

)!$!$#*#'!")#17=B:><=<;2>@9?A3
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 65

Source: UNEP: The Environmental Food Crisis, 2009.123 (Printed with permission) 

	

	




./0((&
(
#!!&(
 &("!&(
#" &(( &(

(	! (&


	











	

+&"%/--1,&

!!'**$$$((*"! **)  *
66 I CHAPTER 3 

& (




%#'#!
	&$"
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 67

	 	

	






#% " % !" " # $! $ # #" ## $

%!#(")!%!#"#!' ")

!%#(+"#$"!+""#"!"*

 !"  " % '!#" "#! "$! # !"  

 ## "#!+!#  ,$! 1+5-* " # " %!"(

 ! !####"#(#"#!*!""%#&

#$"#"#!#""#&##! "#!&#!

"#!"$! #& #*"#! #"%!(&#"#!

"$!  # # ( !"" ( #!# !# ! # " "

% !"*124 % ")  !#%( " !"  !"$#  !

"#!""*1+0"#""""" #" ! !#"%

!"#!# !#!"'#!&#!,**)+

+$!(!"#!-*125



/02***#)
!(! "!"*!"####
"!)

!/4)0./.*

/03*
$"#"$ #)#	 #)

$!!()%!)	

				
	
)

$"!! !25./,!)!0..5-*
68 I CHAPTER 3 



	



126

	$


 "   
 "   " 

"" #

!$



)*+$%
"

	




&




!"*((,'$
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 69




	







 

 

	 







 
	
 


 


Mozambique 3,268 41% 380,296 52% 140.73 55% 291 24% 78 55% 1,218 47%

Madagascar 2,312 45% 102,439 43% 27.89 44% 0 36 44% 617 51%

Nigeria 2,264 31% 870,276 25% 407.61 22% 0 100% 94 29% 1,365 39%

Mauritania 1,754 21% 149,576 33% 74.21 35% 0 2% 59 43% 710 33%

Senegal 677 17% 190,690 21% 111.66 21% 29 2% 27 16% 395 22%

GuineaBissau 670 36% 61,134 33% 10.01 33% 0 12 34% 278 40%

Cote 

D’Ivoire 

668 30% 315,609 48% 176.27 43% 0 99 53% 162 38%

Gabon 630 26% 34,500 28% 120.95 24% 0 30 30% 253 27%

South Africa 607 43% 48,143 33% 174.30 31% 70 34% 93 48% 132 46%

Somalia 555 28% 33,756 31% 8.90 26% 15 16% 1 25% 94 25%

Sierra Leone 549 29% 39,080 35% 5.69 38% 0 1 37% 451 34%

Namibia 470 60% 957 42% 2.31 37% 0 13 50% 18 82%

Angola 457 29% 72.448 46% 88.54 45% 23 14% 19 46% 129 15%

Eritrea 452 32% 8,238 31% 0.97 29% 0 4 43% 31 32%

Tanzania 426 47% 75,493 50% 34.45 49% 64 22% 15 53% 177 42%

Guinea 420 59% 58,967 44% 37.99 40% 0 8 33% 193 62%

Ghana 400 39% 137,206 49% 45.04 51% 0 67% 35 48% 268 48%

Sudan 370 50% 18,762 49% 10.77 48% 0 0% 7 50% 107 59%

Kenya 274 42% 27,453 40% 10.12 32% 40 22% 9 39% 177 53%

Liberia 269 27% 88,535 45% 16.77 41% 0 15 43% 44 46%

Benin 260 20% 221,029 39% 107.35 47% 0 0% 44 44% 164 21%

Cameroon 172 40% 57,124 35% 44.53 32% 0 14 40% 111 43%

Togo 95 34% 147,274 54% 48.20 54% 1 50% 28 60% 52 27%

Djibouti 82 38% 28,559 60% 22.87 49% 0 5 60% 7 19%

Congo 65 15% 10,361 22% 13.14 22% 0 3 21% 20 11%

DRC 51 17% 1,812 8% 0.17 12% 0 9 32% 21 23%

Gambia 39 4% 47,233 40% 18.54 47% 0 0% 8 24% 21 4%

Equatorial 

Guinea 

22 17% 892 38% 6.32 42% 0 50% 1 53% 4 8%

Sao Tome &

Principe 

2 44% 1,053 24% 0.30 20% 0 33% 1 30% 0

Source: Based on Dasgupta et al. 2009, Table 3;International Bank for Reconstruction and 

Developmen /The World Bank: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surges: A Comparative Analysis 

of Impacts in Developing Countries, Public Research Working Paper 4901, 2009. 
70 I CHAPTER 3 



	


 ,!%!,,#+'*, %$*!(*+!,,'%,-*!&, %'+)-!,'!+

+&+!,!. ,' ,%(*,-*6   (*+!, ,#+ !,17+!0 1+ ,' %,-* ,

AHJ4 / !  !+ $'&* , & ,  .* %'+)-!,' $! +(& -, '&$1

&!&,& 1+ , BBJ & ! , 1+ , C@J6 !-* C7A@ + '/+ , 

(',&,!$  & !& %$*! .,'*+ '* B3 ,%(*,-* !&*+ &

++'!,(*!(!,,!'& &+6127

 ,*&+%!++!'&'&-.*!++&+!,!.,' -%!!,16!-*C7AA

+ '/+ '/ $!%,  &!+0(, ,'  & , * '$&/!, 

$!%, +-!,$ '* &- .* ,*&+%!++!'& &4 ++-%!& &' ', *

'&,*!-,!& ,'*+ &4 , (*'('*,!'&' ,  -%&('(-$,!'&, ,

/'-$,*!+#6128



-& -&* ,  9+ !&*. 
&!,!,!.4 ,  $!%,  & &

*!&'$!,!$,!$!,1(*'*%%(+.-$&*!$!,1,'$!%, &+

+ '/&!&!-*C7AB6129



 7-&(,'+,*!(*'", ++,!%,, (',&,!$

(,,!'&'+,+!&*!6 !$ , *!+ ! -&*,!&,14 , !&,*,

++++%&, %'$+ !&!, , , ,  &,*$ '&'%! '+,+ ' $!%,

 &'**!'-$)-!.$&,,'A6E7C6@(*&,' 1*

1B@C@4++ '/&!&!-*C7AC6130



ABG6	&*!66'&&&4! *66&$/4&!-+6&4:*!,!&&

%((!&%$*!-&*$!%, &+&*!'+5, (',&,!$*!+,*!-,!'&'

%$*!.,'*+!&*!4;



I4&'6AAA>B@A@?4'!5A@6AAHF<ADGE7BHGE7

I7AAA6-$!+ '&$!&(*!$BC4B@A@6

ABH66	$+,$64:',&,!$,'('(-$,!'&&$!%, &+'&$'$

!+,*!-,!'&'&-.*5&%(!*!$%'$4;

CF@>B@@B?5HC@=HCD6

ABI6'+ -6-+14'6%!, 4!
6 !,4& /&6,*&4



 !

	

8>-+,!&40+5

'*,6,*-++&,*'*
&,*&,!'&$-*!,1&
/4B@A@?6 !+%,*!$!+

+-('&/'*#+-(('*,14'*!&(*,14, *%1+* 
'*,'*1&

, *%1+* !-&*'&,*,<*&,&-%*IAA7@I7A7@@GG6

AC@66,#!++46'/&!&4&61+21&+#!4
	!
 






>!*'!54B@A@?6
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 71


$"!

	










 
#&	





"!%


	"!%	








$""	




72 I CHAPTER 3 
















	

	







POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 73

		


"  ' $ "  "!" "  !# "' " # "!

 " "!  "  $# "'+ 	' $ #" !

  # "  $ ! ! $!   $"! # !! 

%" "!#,!"!!##"!%,!"!" !!!+

"" !""" ## !) "

"" !)$ " $#!) ""  %" )  () 

"  !# !+  "'  "" "
 #"' " 

 "!#  !!"!"# "+

"!""!", "!"!)!" !) "!)" ,#

$)  "  # !" $  !"   " " +

 "" ' $   &" 

%" '' !*)!"! &" '%"

 '' !"' !  +

 " !     $" "   "    

 "!) !#" ""%"'"#!"!!0///)

'%# $")"'!"(!!+

"!& "" +"" #"" "

") #" " # ' ") ) !)  #"# 

"&"!  ' % $     " "+  $! $)

("! # )  $  #"!   !' %  "   

%) #") ) $ "!+

"  #"!' $ "   !#   ! ""

#"!  ' '"!' $!)$ %

 "!)  !!' !#   "  !"+

"#! "%$ " !"""

!""'+

"""! ("!"!+
	

 " ""! #"   -	. ""$!

  " $ " !# "') "   " ) 

!!"   !!"" !# "' "  !+
74 I CHAPTER 3 

	

		

	





! " "  2  "!  ") "  "!  

!"( !""!'$ ""!'!"! 

$ " "', '  "! !""! "  "# 


!#!!$"!# "'"$!)!#!!# !" "

   # !#  !!* "    $"

$   "!  ! !  #"* "

"  !*""#* " '*)

!"!!"  "!,#!)"'"

"!
"!# "'" !"!, $ )	! """ "

 "
"!# "'" !"!%"-#!# !

' "#""  "#",

  !  $  "  "  " "" 

	/!!# !, " #"!
#"1430!)  !

 " "  ! "!#"&!"! " 

,
 #" "")  !"

 "  ! "  ""  !'    !,  !#" "!!

#" &!"  !  ) #"# )  ""' 

#  " "   # , 
  "! #   !! "

 !"
)"# "  ) #"! "

"!! "% %  
#"   $     ",

#!"!)") "!+% "!"!!".%!#

"     !!. 
" !#  " " !# "'

#"'/! "." )!#

%"     !"") $ !" " "!   $ ") 

!'" !# !!! '"!#,



 !"  ) %  $ $ "!) !# " ' !

 "  " !)" ! " " "! 

")%" " !"""$  !# !!

"" ""!# "'!""'*)%   !!  #

" ! !" !"# !!" !)!  "',
POTENTIAL CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE I 75

		 
 	 
	   
 	



	


'# %$&#%)#$ &#$$&$'$$ %(%

!$$  % %),%$#)!%$ 

# %$-

%  #$$ % ! # $%)   ## #$  & '#

$!$+$!)#$ !$% #$!-

%#$&#%)$#'#  %+'&  #!&+

#%%   # (%#-


) #  '#%$  % !%) %  !% %  % %$ 

% -   %#$ ' )  % %+ %+

#+  ! (# !%$ $$#)  # ' &% #%)/$

 #%$% #%%#$-

 $&$$&  !#%  %( %
. '# %

&$  %  !%%   '# % $&#%)  &

$)  #!% %( 	
  % %#  #&$-

$  !#%  ( &  #%$ %  & %  !%% 

!%)#$%%-


#'% $% #  #! #% $+ $& $ %  .   !)+ 

  '#% #*% $+ $& $  %&#  $#') 

 # &+ ' $%$  #$!% !# #$ #

#$$ % %.#% $$&$ $& $  (%#   

$&#%)%% & #	
 #%$% &# !%)-

&$ %$($!# &### $$% %%+%

!%% $'$$&  #&%%# !#%  

&$&# #%#$%%%#$%% %-

	/$ #   %# $$ $  & #$$ 	


%  !%) & !# #$ %  $&!! #%  $&$%

' !%%%%'$-

 % $ #$ #  %  $"&$  % 

# &!%#$01-
76 I CHAPTER 4 


	
	


	

&$'%+!"&'%# &#'"'#" &(%',#!!("',"

%&&"  !' " &&(&0  !' " & "%&" ,

%#"-&)"!( '$ %'#%+&'"'"&#"&"%#" 

"&' '&0 	' $ & '#"  &'%&& #" ' &'' $# '  &,&'!.

#!$ '" '  ', # #)%"!"'& '# !' ' !"& $  #"

' &,&'! ,  &(%" $#$( '#" " , %(" &,&'! %& "0

& "  '#  #&& # '!,. "'%"  #" '. &''  (%.

$#$( '#" !%'#". " ' %#*' # +'%!&' # #,0  !'

"'%'"&"'#" &(%',"'%&'&''%#"  ) &0

& &'(, #& "#' %&& !"& '#  ' #% %)%&  #   !'

"0#"#* ##!$ + !'!"&!&!&",&(

&(&'#"&$( ')'&'0#*)%.'"'''&&("%&'"".

%&#(%&. " & & '' "  ("' &#! '& #  !' "0131.132

 "' ''&. #*)%. & "'% ' "#*  "#% ' %&#(%&

" '# $%#(*&$%! #%'#"0 %&#(%&!(&'  #(&

#"'!#&'&%#(&"'#" %&&0"'''&!(&' &#%#('

"'%"'#" ,'#&$%'(%"#$''#"'# !'"0


	







'%'#"$'&" (/

 # ##)%"!"'##$%'#"*'!""( &($$#%'

%#!

 ##$%'#"*' &.
&."'#&##!!#"$(%$#&

  '%,'#! '%,"!"'"$',( "

 (%%"'  $$%# '# "'#"  &(%', "'%&'& % ' '#

 !' " & & #" '%  !"'& # "'#"  $#*%/ "&.



5750''!$'&'#""%".#" # & .'#!#,#%%)%& !'"

%&$ ,"%#(&0"#* #'#!$ '%"#'#%&'"

%'1& !'&&#%(!"'%,'' !'""%"&)%'( ,(%"''#

%&( '"*#%&$%# !&'"",#'%
'(%)%%!($0

5760
!&#% !".
	



2
*#%.
/# (!")%&',%&&.$'!%645430
ROLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY I 77


!#  
!% 
  	 
 
  


##

# 	
!  # 

&(#' 

	



 

  


	
!%




 
 
   !    

"#!$

 

!! 	
!

!
!



 



"




!






 !
"
"


"


!




 #

##
!



# !!# !# 
   # 


 %   
 
 

 
  
 %  # !    

  
  
 

  %   

 #  	    
!    




#!##


 ! 
#
   
 



%#	!


#



 !
# 
 # 

# 
# 
#


#  
 
 

    
 


 
 
    

 %  	

       
      



%

	 

#  

!  
!# 
 
  



 !



%


 !#


78 I CHAPTER 4 

%   "!   !" #"   #"#  #"( !!( 

!#!)


 $" $%  " !# "' ! !  " 

" !"!)
 "!"!"" "!" !" " '(

 "( !! " !# ! , '( %" ( (  " !-  

 "!) "  " "!   # !! #!) # !# "'

! " "  "  " "  " " "  " !# "')

$" " !# "' " "!  !   # !# "'

 !)133  %" "  # !  # !# "'*!

!" "'" $" "!# "'!)

!  "( " " ""! !  #""    ""  "

 !! #"  !! " " !#!"  "! " '  

 !   "'   )!" ' !#!"! " " ""!!

"""$')
 #"# &"!
  ("! !"

# ' !(  $#"""$%"'(

!"  #"$"'( "" " #!" %(   "' #

" #    #  "  " ") 
 
# "

 $!" !!""%"  !!""

$ "#'  "    !!!) 
  '

 ! !(!" '/2..!("# #"(

! " /23.!( $ "  "  $  " ! "" !'!"(

  %"  " %" *!" $ !"(  # " " 

!! ) 	#"   "!  "! #  # 

"""!"#" '+!" !")#" "

+! $ ! "!  " !# "' % #   !  *

"  ")


 ""!"" " "! ""!# "'%

 #   *! " %    ")       !

"$!!( " !" #  " " " !!! #

" " '  "!(  "  " "!  "   

!"("",#  "!"" 

"%"""!-("$#! !

 ""  "  ") 
 " &"" "" " "# (

"(  "  !" #"$ #!  "   



/11)%!	!" '!(	

		
	


	

, ""'!!(" 0./.-)
ROLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY I 79

#$ *!#%,% $%%',$% $%*% $% !# %%

% $&#%*%%' !%  &$#$ %

#$! $ $!%#&- % $% %',  $%  $%* $ % % %

%#*.%%%#%!# #%$,%'*%#%

 '#%%%$,(#"&## #!#%%% .%,%#

$#$$$%'%*% %! %%!%$ %%

% #$$%.

 ###%#* $ #%%$#$$%! #% 

# + % !#%%  %%   $ %$  % 

$&#%*. #%#*  %% 	#* %  $!   % ! #% 

#% ' !% &% $  %  % !#%%  %% 

.2010% &#%*%#%*$$$%#$! $%* #

#$$ %% %#% % %  $&#%* %  %

. $ #/'
%  $$$#$! $%* #

%  %#$%  %  !%% .  %# $  #

# %   %! #% %!%$ %% % 

%#%  $&#%*, %#$    # # % !/ ( & % 

!# %'*#$$%!%%  #%$%  % #

$%%*. # $    # # $$%   '& 

 #+% $ % #%* % '#%#$! $

 #%!%% %%# '.

%  #$!, %#*  #% ,  % $%#%

 &%$ %%  '# ! * ' !%  $%   %  

&#%# $%#%. %, % % #  ', % #( #  #

 !#%   %  !%* & )$%$.  # 

$$ $    % !#%%  %%   '# %

	&$ # &##%*  &$  $&$% ' !% 

'# % ! *  (*$ %% #$$ $& % 

#% $$&$ $ (%# #$ &# %  !%' #&%&#

!#%$.$!# #$'$&$$&*$ &%% ' ! $%% 

 #  %  #$  $ &  '  $$%%

 %%   $&!! #%. 
# ' % $&!! #%  %  %%

 %%'%$( &&%!*%%'$$ %$

!# #$   & #*  %  % $  # ! !&% $

!%*%.'#% $#&##%*(

# ( '# % $, *  ( #"&# # 

 !#%  %  $ '. # % $ % %#  #  % ( #  
80 I CHAPTER 4 

   '# % !# 3    %#%3 ' 

%#$%$()$%% #) %$ ! %'# %$$&

%$- '#%6$ %% % # $%#%) !%$

 &#%#&%%#! %'# % #%$-

&# % %  $%#% + % !#%%  %% #%

%   '# % 	& !# # $ % $!  # %$

'# % ! )  #%$- 
% ($ #% (% %  %%+

/# % $ % %#   #  %  ( #     

'# % !# 3    %#%3'%#$%$

()$ %%   # )  % $ !  % '# % $$& %$-0134

$ $ ' %#' +&# $&$"&% $%#% $+ '

 $$%%)# &%&%%# !#% % '# %$$&$%%

%#% %  $%* # $- 
 977>29787+ % !#%%  %%

  '# % 	&  # %# #  % #

!#%#(%% &%# %  &%%( %

$&#%)'%$% %#%!%% %#%$% %

#  % ' ! #$! $$-$  #($ %# .

(+ %# #  % # %   &#%)

 #, #  %#%) %  % - # # %#  

'# %	&$#%(  &%%##-


 % 8>>7$ % !#%%  $ $%$ % !#'%'

$  !% %  '   $%)  %  $&$$&) $ &%

%#) !#% %$ #%$ %  /%% %!%$ '#$

'# % % $ %  %#%  $%%)-0135  %+

%#  %% #$'&$'# %$&#%)$

 % '  ' ( #  $) (% % 	&$ %  &

 !#%' #% $!$  #  $%%$%#) $&!! #%  #

' &% #%)   #)-   !#%  (% !#%#  &%#$

$  #&#) $&!! #% ) $ $& $ %  )  #


%#%  ' !%+      %)+ % '# %


# %%  )+  % !#%%  % 
%# #- $ &

!#%#!%)!%$% #$$'# %$&#%)$$&$

!#  %$%%)-
%$! #%%% &#$%%%%$%#% 



8:;-!#%% %%+%%!,11(((-$%%- '11 $1&14$$=&&$%97885-

8:<-##$$# +!&%)##%#) $ #'# %

&#%)+%%% #%& %% 
$%% %$+)8:+8>>:-
ROLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY I 81

!& !     &   ! "!&

  &! " )

			
	

 !% #$&!$!!! !
! "!&$

!"!!&#!!#! " &" 

 " )

!
!!    !! !! ! !((

! !)


 ! "!& !!  $ " #!*$( !

"!  !  "!( ( ( "!"(

!(" !(!& )

  '!!
#!  

! &   !&  !  !! 

!!&! !  " !!#)

  !!#(!& !!&!

 !! ! ! ( ! $!  "   & 

#( &'!!!! )

!  ! ( !"& !  ! ! $!  

 "!&(   ! !&   !!   ! !

!  ! !   %! !   ! %!) ( !& 

 !! !! )

!
!!  !" ! !!! 

! "  "!   "  ! !!  ! ! !

!)

!
!!   !!! !$! "  

    ! ! !! !   ! ( ))( !

"!" %!   !!    #"! 

!  !  "&( ! " ! 
# !!  !

   !!    $!   !! #!"&

!   (!
& 

 !""	!( !,-.+ (!!!

! 
 # ! !! & !   $! ! $!*

 !#
 !)
82 I CHAPTER 4 

 % %%$ $  $%#%  !%*  # %#  %  #

%#*%#!# #$%% &)!% !# '&% 

%# $%#'%% !%% %,--,*#  ,'

#, $%#&% ,#&%&#,  ,%#-

	


	

$ &## 	%#  % #%"& %%  %  %   %

  +  '#%  #&  #, %&# $$%#$ %%

)! $ '#%/$  !#!#$$ ' "&%%$ 

 '#%%*- % ( '  $#&!%' % 

$%% $*$%$, !&%% % #$ % #$ &# $  $&$%%*  %

 '#%- & % #$  #$!  %  #$&% %&#

$$%#$ # # $  #  , # ,  $%%

 '#%$-
 !#!#$$ #'# %$,$&$

% $&$,*!%,  .#'$%&%!*%$ $

# )$%#'$ % $%%*-$,$&$%%*,

 !#!#$$ # $$% %  '  ! % $%%* 

! #%% %  * %  $&#%*  &%*  #% %  %% %

# %$ %-

% $ &$& %   !%&+ % #   % %  $&#%*

 &%*  #$$ %$ $%+ $$& $ #% %

 #$%  &%$- 
 ($ %$ *  #$$  8>>; % 

$$$$%$&(#$$!#!#$$ #!#%$ %%%%$-

$ #$&%  %#*$$ #$#,
' ! !%  #

%%% %$&$-$&$% &%$,

% ($ #% 0%  !# ' #%    #%   # %$&

%%  %'%$  % $   $$%#-1136  + %%  

 #% ( &  $&$$& (% &% % $&!! #%     &%$,


$! % '#!,&% ,(#$$ % 

+  $$$  #& %%$  !# !#%* -  $'

'#$ #$% &%$#$% % ,$%%,

 !%$*%#%%#%,!#!#$$,%*

%' (#$, !#!#%  !& &%#   &% ,



8:<-
 ##,			

	,


 #&

.88:3% 
% $!#

$%#% ,8>>=4(((-!- - '2!&$2297:7297:7-!

5$$&&$%97886-
ROLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY I 83

%&%- ! !'%!'"! ""%!'"!/ & "!#' "( &, 

#''" '!#''"!!*"(#%")%!&''

"%!'"!&(%'," (!',"%'&/

 "!#' " %&!, & ! (& , ' !' ''& 

" !1& !'% " +! "% &&'% ! !' !

( !'%! &&&'! 23 &  % *"% '" ( '& "%'& !

!*''!%0'% '&" '!/-!"*!'&&"!

- )& '' ' "!#' " &"' %&! #%")& ' &'

"%  " &&'% #%#%!&& '" )" (!!&&%, &&'% %&#"!&

 &&"!&/	'*"%&*''!'%!," (!',-" '!'" !&-

' !'%!'"! " (!',- ! 
& "! &&'% #%#%!&& !

%&#"!&"%'&!%*(#"!''+#%!'"%''& '!

%&!, "!#'/ & #%&!' , '! 2'3 
"! / "" !- 

%'"%-(%!&%&& '" '%!'" !!)%"! !'

(%', "!%!- ' #%& " '  ' ! &&'% %&!,

"!#'%.

 


/	!"%%'""!%"!''!&#"&,

&&'%&-'" (!', (&'))"##('

&,&' -)%&!%&'%('(%-( !'%!&&&'!

#'&-!%"(&'&&'%#%#%'"!/

 
	

/!$('('"!&,&' -%!

" (!'"!!!"% '"!+! !& &-!

!)'!!)%"! !'"%%&%!!!")'"!%%''"

)"#!'!''(#''"!&(%%&!/

 


	

	

/%"(&'"!" ,!&'&

&(&'!)"# !'!%&"(% ! !'#%'&

!" (!','"*'&'!!%")%%" '!!

!!)%"! !'&&'%'%'&/

 


/" (!',''&%&" "!)(&

!"')&*%&#'!)%&',!&'%)!"%&"

#%',!''%*"%"'),'"%&&'''&"&&'%&

!%(!'%'% '/

 	

/%&!'" (!',%$(%&"(!'

%&#-(&'!%('"%,"&-##%"#%'&(%',!

&"#%"''"! !& &-!'','"&&&&'&%&&/
84 I CHAPTER 4 

	,!"""  ) #  !'

"! !# "  % )  ! '  " "$!  
,!

!#!" $" "  """  "" # "'

" "'*  !#!!    !# "'  (" !# ! 	 

$ !#  "   " %" "  " ' 

" "  ("!)  ' "! "  "! #"

  " "$"!) !" "! " !"'     

$ "   " "  ""* ! "' 

 " '# !" "!"" !!)!%!"!

    !"*   $ !" #" "!  "

 #!!! $" "! $ !#!!#'%  " # "

"! #")%" ) ' #"# ""&" !"!!

" &"  !"* ! "!    "!  '

#! "!!  "  !   "  "!* " "

 "  "" $!) # " ! ! %" !!' #" '

"!)" ' "!!!!!""!#!!*

" "!" "$)!#!!!!!!*
  "! ""

!# "' #"'   ( %" "  "   " '


' "" "" $! ' "!) !!! !!"') 

 "! "!* "  "" !   "" "

!# "' !!# "" "!  !""'  
 " !# "'

" !"!) % " "! $    "'* " " $ # 

  "')'!" "#"!)!#!""" '" "'

  "  ""  ""  
 " " 
 # ! " "

 "" ' " " #  "

!' '  $#   ! ""    '  * "#" "!

" $  "    "') !" " #"!  " "

!# "' #"' '  " !" !! "  "  " 

"" # %')  "  "  "" $! 

"! ("!%'# """"% +

$ !!" ""* $ )" "#"'" "

#""  " !! %" "" !""'

 " # " +# !# ! "" #  " 

##!"*
ROLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY I 85

		
	
	

$ "!# ""! " "!'!"!

' " "!  "    "  "  !  # * "! !

 "# ' """! !%  !""! $""


"!# "'" !"!+

 "$' # ! !"" !"# !!" 

""   "   !"  $ '  " "

"" !!""# 

" '"$"!+



$ "!# #! ("!%" #""

" " # !"  "   "! "  !!  ,

"  !!""+


		

	

	

  ""  
"" ! !"!  
 $'   "

)!! !#  "! " #"#" '"+


! " ' 
'!"% $!" ! "

" " " #"'-! "  "!+ 


"  # 
 "    "   "  "!  $ !! "

%" !#!!"")')%" "+

"  "'!"   "

! !"! " 	!# "!   " "   $ "

'!!  " "!"#"'!!"+

  ""   #"#  !     #"#  
 $

%!#"  !% %%" $ #"$"'+

  ""   ' !  &"!$  " ' !'!"

' !"!"!  " !"        '

'% '%" #"!!!!+

 $ "  "" ' !  "    


!"!!!!" !"""""!+
86 I CHAPTER 4 

	#
#"!(#"$""

!##"%#"!"-

 # !$" !#!(  !% # , 3- !.

!$#$!.!"#!(   #+ 4- !##  !"

&#!+ 5- 
 % !"  "# "$!%+ * 6- !

)!".!# $"*%"*#"$"-


  
$!%( $""  & "("#" ! # $!"#

 - # $#"  " "#  !"# #" 

%!#  #!$ * *  (!

!"""*"!$!("$!####"-

	#(
" #	#"!$

$"!#"#$"(#"#"#" #$""#"

#-137

 !"#/" 
  
  ( ( #!$ #

!"#/" ##  
  ( !%" % 

$#"#-


	



 # # %!# !)#"* #! ! $!$"

!)#"&!%"""#%-($

	#$! "!%(  # !  !""* " & " )" 

  $%!"#( !$" & !% !"!  ##

!#"- 	
" !%  &#  '!#"  """# ! #

&###
##"#!#(-




	





$#" # # 
##"* #! ! $!$" !#" $!&(#

!"" #   #" #"-  # 	#" !%"

# #!(  $#! !"" # ## # !"$#" 

!""  ""#!"-  # 	#" %!# !!



357-'"#""#$"$,042331*

	
	042331*


	042321*


042321*
042321-
ROLES OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COMMUNITY I 87

 $ "#  &##  $ !$# $  %" &" $-   "

 $"& !$ $ " !" & 

###$$ !$$ $!$# $-"$"$) .

#! # "  	 "  $   %"$)


 %$      $ % $") !$) $  "##

$$# $-

		






"" &"$ "*$ #$"$  "*$ #

&$ ,

 " &$ "# !##$"#

 %!! "$ "$#$ !" $&)%!$$ "#

!$)

 ###$$"#! #$ $$# $

 " &#$"#%!! "$$ %"#$!

$$

" #   $" "*$  $  ###$ #  %"#$

'$"# %"#"& "$  "$$" "$#-


	




	
	
	

"$ " 
$ $# %,

 #$#+'$!!" !"$) $$

 %$)+$" %!$  $"$ $$# 

$ ! $  & !$#$"

!$ # "$ #%"$)

 ! "$$ %# $# "$# %$ !" $%

#%"$)#$$ %& !$ $ #%"$)

##%#-

 #" %!# %($#&%#  !# %"#+#

$  !"$'$ $" #$$"$ 

$ "$#+"! "$ #$ $#!" %$#" )

'$ &"$  &"$ %$#-

 $" %!# % ## $$"$

)/#01$" "$%"$)$ !" %
88 I CHAPTER 4 

!!!!" ""!"!""" "

#!# "'$ ""'& "

&!""!!+'!##!"!!!!!"!

,#!# " "#""%

"!"! !""!+!#"!#"!!

 " ' """!" " $!+

 !"-!	"
# "'$! )#"%""#

$ "#"')!#!"!" '%  #

"$*

  ""!"! !!


$ """!

 %$ "  "

""%"#! "" !

" !""'

  !"-!	"
# "'$! !#"#"

!(!" "" '#"!)!#!"



" "# %"!""%"

"!"# '"!"""  !"!!"&"

!# " $" ("!"! "!

 "!$"  !+

#"'
 " '
"""#"'
 " '!!#*

 %"&"!#!!# " '" 

!!!"  "!#""   !

"!!" $""""")++)

' ')$ )!" #") #"# )')

#"+

 "$  "' !!!".#

!# "'!!!" " '!!/)$")

!"$")+

 $!" "#"!!""!%" 

!# "' !!" "!"'" !""'


"!# "'+
ROLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE I 89


		



	

	








	



$%"$)$"$)#"#"#"#"$

-1/'$#&""%#"#%"#,'#%" "

"%$  , $#$"  $%" ##$"#, + $ "$

"## $.2138 $ %"$" #*# $$"$# $$$

 * $  $  $# #  $  %"#% $ $

  " $"% $"$  "$. " ' 

#$ $#.

"#$ +   $ $ 644; 
   # #$$

$$+ 1/$ # $ ") #$#$#  $&#$# '  " #'$ 

"% $3$ # $") "#  ) %$")  $"# '

%"#$$$%"#%"$)#$.2139# $

'# %  $ 6454 
%" # &'+ $ "#$ 

#$"$ % %$ $ & $"% $"$$ $ $##%# 

$").%#+"$"#$$+$$'%$#$$

#$$"'"# )%( $)"$

 $"## #$)$"$) % " ##%#

##$'$$.#%##" "$

$$"%$#.

")##$"#'$$."$#

$" #+  '  $ #### ' $    $

"##)$"$"-

 (#$ $")$#!% $$$

"

 "+("##+ )$$#"#

 $#$)$") "#

 "!%)+$+$) #$") "$#+$

"'"( $"+'!% $#



57:.$%#+

	


+	)6454+ .89.

57;."#$"0#
"* $ +644;.
90 I CHAPTER 5 

#$&  !

  
 !   "(  &  "&  # 

!     $     

)!"!("

$$$"

$"

 (   "    

 )        $

    (   $  

$      $&   

$      ! $

 &      &  

"(

"%     

)   ! *

( $        

 $   "  "   !  " 

 $  (         (

$$ $(

        $   ,-+ 

   %      !  

  $ "        

!    ! $ !( $&

   !         

"  %(         

   !#   

!          

$$!$(

 $$& 	 
!"&

   !      

 $(            

&"&$ $ 

"      (       & 

$& ' . 

!    & /   

& 0    $   $)

&  1  !     (   
ROLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE I 91

# +!!# #!!!  ! "!

!!! "!&! ! ! )


#&  ! $*'!& " 

   ! !   "!  ! ) #&

!!!    % ! "   !   ! !!

& !  $!! '!! 

 #  !! '!!! "!

  !,  !  )	!#& 

! ! "!


 & !#	! &0./.)  

"!  ! #&+   !  #' !'  ! !

!   ! 0./.-0./1 ! ) ! "  !

!! ! "!&!$"  

 !!& " "! (  !  ! "!   

%! ! !  ! #! !

!&( " !   !   ! 

(  " " !! ! !  ! #&+ 

!&!  '!'!!!)

   + %!& &  $!  "  

 %!& "!   " ! &' $ " #

!& !   # !    ! *

! ! ' !"& $!  ! ! !  $! !

 !"!")

 
 &+  ! *! !!#  #  

& $! ! 
) 	 !  ! ' ! 
   

!  ! % ! !    #    !   !!   !

!! 
! !! ) !!&' ! 
    $

$! ! !   $!*!  " ' "   $! #!&'

! "!  '$! "!  !"!"

#!! )

  !  " !  ! "!  !

! !' !    ! '  #! ! ' 

 !! )  !' !   #   ! !!  #

"! #!!  !    )
92 I CHAPTER 5 


$ %" "# $" "$$ ##$# $$   "'

%  ) $ $$ # $ #% "$ $&$#  $" 
#,


$)+ $ $$ "$"#  "" # #$# "$# #

$' &"%# #$$ 
$ %"#  21 %$"# $"%%$ $

'","'$( "$#$$$# "#""$"&

% $#+ $
$ %" #% "$#  $ #%"$) # 

###$# $&$"# $& $$"#%"$) "$

&%%$")  $&#,$#+"( +$ 

%  $) "$" $#"# #%# ##$" " "##+

"#%"$+$"$ #"$$$$#,

%"(#$ ""#$&$##% "$$"&#.

$$ #. # " $ -"$ $$&#, #

$ &+ $ 
&) # "  $    &

 "$$&#"%"$#%'",$+$$

 $ "$")  # " ) //00  $ " 

$$ #  "' %  $ # &"$

$"$  "$ ""+  ) $ &"$


##  $)     $  %$) " "$") 

# " #$$#  &"$,  # # $ #% "$

$$&$#'$$"$#.##$$%$#,

#( '"$$$$&+$
	

&"$ %"$) ""+ '" '$  &"$ 

$"$ "$"#+#") $ "## $#"#

 $ -"$ $&$#+ #% # #$ "#  '$"

#%"$) ####$#+ " "$ $ "$ $  & 

$") #$"# ,  " "$"#  $$ " "#$#

$" &% "" $   % "$ #%"$)  $)  

#$  " $#,  $# "## %" $ "" 

#) $" $% $# "$ $$##$"

"#"%$,

		
		

 # %!%  $#  "#%"# $    '$ $

  ##$" "## $ % # * ( "$# /,,+

"+)")+#$#+"#$+&$&"#"0,
ROLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE I 93

/#'.#$#,.$"  $)$$

 ""#  $ $$ #  $"%$ $ "&

""  " !%$) $  "$ $ $ #$

$"$%$)-

 $)#$ "#$'$##$&$)$$"#'$

"$"#%"#%$'$%$"$#$$$"$-

 %""$) #   "   "# $  '$ $

$")  $ - &% # " &%

 "# $&#!%$# $ $" "# $&$") #%### %$

& $ #)#$$) "* $   $$ # 

#$""!%"$"#$$)-

  $""$") # "!%#$,)

 	#$# 11+	22 " "#$#   $"$# '$ $

%&"$
%$)-

  %$) ###$$ "$")  # " "$"# , $"$) 

$$)  "$# $"$# '$ 
$ %"$) $  $$"#

 "$$& $-

 $ $ 6"$"$, $"$ #  ),  $ %$)

###$$ "$")  # " $"$) '" '$ 
$ %"$)

$$$"##$"$ -

  "$ "## $ $#   $$ $  

##$" "# "%$ &  "$$  $# " $# "# 

###&"#"##"&#"##$$$#-

" " "# $' $  $)  &"$

#%"$) $487305333 $ "-& %"#$

,   $) , &"$ #%"$) ' '# "$

'$$"&$"#'$12'#&$$

$$ #  12  $" $"  %$$"

$$&$#-

$  # %""$) &  "  $  $ # 

$") "$# $"$-'$ $# $

$ $ #  $ (  "$##- " ( , $

 # "$  %% $ " $  "

 $),%$""#"%"$%$"$)$
$

%$,$%"$")%$"$)-
94 I CHAPTER 5 


	

	
		

!%$)
"$") ## %+

 #$#
-' "$! ) " "$

!$# $ #%"$),# ".#%$ ## %

%+

  "$"  $ "$ " $

#$"$ !"$ !"#!$&,#' %%

####!$ # "$ "#$"%$%"*! )$

 !$ #*$,

  !####$$# "$ 

" ##$ "! $$ #$ $)

!$ # "" #$$)$& !$ 

 "  "$")###$!" "#,

 
.#$")"!"#$$& "$

!$$ $$"#,

 
"&#$ ! $ " "$ *'-*$$

##) $"
 $
"$") #

/

0 ##'#$ $
$*
"&#*

 $$ #,

 (!$%$ "$# $
!"$ ")#

" "#
$ % !"$ $##%#,

 "$$#$#$ !" " $

!$$ ! $!" $# "$'$"$!" "#$


 $"#$ $)*# $*%! $

!" $# %# #!!$$ #$ "# #/,,*

$ " # "&#"$"#0,

(!# ! $!" $##%#$$&$#$%*

%$" $$*$ +

 "%$$ "$#"" "


 "  $#%-" #",!!)


 "$'$####$$&$)#"$ $%" !

	!" $,

 ($$ #"&$ * *#)$######$

!$#!!$ )$$
$$#$!!"

  " &"#$ !" "$)'$""# %"#$"$

"*!"!#'$$	#$$&,
ROLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE I 95

 ##+"&'"'&#"'#"'#%"'&"(&"!"%!"/

&%&&&&& !'!#!!!"%!'%'&)

!&'"%  #'&"!'"(#*'%/!%+/*&'

%&"(%&!#+&!%&'%('(%&"% '&&(&

"&,
%,!.

 !',!'%!'"!%&%#%"% &,


" !&!'%!/"(!'%+&(%'+#%'!%&,!

!'%!'"!!&&(&!!'+!

"##"%'(!'&'"&% '!/%'!"% '"!

!%!! "%)&'+!'"&'"%&0')'&.

 "(&"!!%/'% ,),! &(%"&'"

)"#! "!&'%'!/'"/!'%&""%

!"% '"!&+&' &*!% !'+(!!/"(!'%+

#'+!" #'!.


,
"'!%%'%+"!& "%"+!'%'"%,

	"!' ' &"( %' )"# !' "  
 &'%' %" # "%

 '!/%'"%'&''(&"!'% *"%"('!'

)+ '!" #'"-

 !&(%'''(!'"'" '!'" !%&,"!

&!,&"!&%'"$('+'%)&!

" '!'" !&"%'%!&'!'%"/)(!

"%!'(%!!!&)*!'"'"!

%$(% !'&.

 %'''" '!'" ! &&"!&!(!"!/" '

&(##"%''"%&&&%"(& '!/!(!'"!

&(%'+)(!%'&.

#('+!%%'%+"!&"%!&''"!&!!)%"! !'

&"( &&  ! !)!'"%+ " %' '& ! !%&'%('(% '"

!( ! &&&& !' " )(!%'+ '"  ' ! '& ! '

 !&'"#'.

%'"%,	"!''&"(-

 %'"&'##%"'" '!,!'%'!"%'&"

'&%)!'%'"%'&-	31!'!2,	41"&'&2,	5

1'%'!&!"+2,!	61"%'%('(%,&"(%&,

!&&&& !'%'"%'2.
96 I CHAPTER 5 

  $!###""#!!"!$#

#!###!'!"",


!#!"*"#
!%"*""""$+

 ##!#!##""#!!"!$#

"!#"#'!""*#!*$##!",

 "#"#!"$"!"!$##)#

###!("$!#!#"*

!"*!!"*#",

 %$#"$!#!"

!#"""#!$#(!!##

!"#""#!"!#""##"*&#

""##"!##!(#"%&#!

#"%$"",


!#!""#
!%""$+

 """"#
!%".!!)#"#"#-

#"$"#"""####,

 #)#!(##!(#!#$#"&##

!#!"#!"###"

""#!!"!$##",	"*#("$'

"!#!"!#
#$!!"!%",/!

'*&#!#(-#!(""#

!"###!#""#$#!"!%",0

 '#"$#!#"!"##!#

!""##$!""#!!#!""#!!"!""

"#$#",!'*#
#$!$!!##

""#"##!#""#!*"#!("!"

#"#""#!",

#
##"
!#!*&#"$!# !#
%("#

$!* "$ #( # ""#" ## &   # !#  #

!# #$ $# ""#"* !" #!* !!"*

#! $#,
ROLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE I 97






		
		

	

 %% $&"&$$ $!# #%$- ('#+

%# $  &'#$   #   %%   %   $# %

! %% %   $$%# #$ #&%  !%$  %#

#$$ % %$$  $ %# - )!   %%

  #% #"&#%$+	
$%$$$$%$

(% %$   %  %&# #$ &# '&#%$+ $& $

(%#+ +(%#-$ #% $#& #	
/$

 !#% %#$%$#"&#%$$  #%*!# #%$

%$ %#% $ (% # % $- 	 %+ $& $$$$%$ #

  &$%  % !%$$$$%%%# '-$

$$$$%$( &,

 	%*#$+ &%#$+# $(#%!% %

 $%%*$&#%*%#$%$$#%$%-

 	%*%%&#! %%$ ! % $%*!%$-

 	%*(%!%*&$&#$$ &&#%% 

#$$%$!%$-

$ #% $$$% #	
% ' !%$!# #%$ #

#$ &# % -#%# #&( & %  %

 &%#*/$$%#%! #%% $&#%*%#$%$+% &%#*/$ (

!%*  ##$$%!%$+%! %%$'#%* %!%$+

! $$$!. '#%$-

  %% $ &&%$ %'$,

 ' ! $%% %#*!%*% 

&#$% %%$

 $%' (#$$ %$$$&$(% %#

!#%#% $%#%#$

 %  $#% !%*#$%#&%&#%#$%$ 

%%%%$

 %	
$)!+%$&$ '$$&$ %

# 
#%#$! %% + # ' #+ % 	 !# #+ %

% &#%%
#%#$!
# #+%&%#'

$$$%!# #% ,
98 I CHAPTER 5 

   "%*!  ,%$,  %#-"#!!%

 %#!"#%*

 
#!' '%# #*$$$% -"#"#!##$$

#$"! $

 
  "#"#!#$$%##

$$ !% )&$%'$%!%"#!#$$&%+!#

! %$   % %'%$- #%#, $ % !# $   &$%#%!  !

)$%  #$!&#$ %%   $&""!#%  !#%$ %! "#' % %

$%+ %$!% .

 %%%$""#%! $! $"!#% %  %

%'%$ %%   $#* !#"!#% %     $$%# #$

#&%!  ! $#%! $. $ $ "#%&#* "!#% % '  %

"%! $ ! %   %$ !# # $%% %*  

!% %##!#$. %%%$# $"!#%%! ! ( %!

"#"#%!#$"! %!$$%##$$! $ $!%!$&""*!#$ 

%#%$%%$$! '!'$.

&%%!%'$!#!% %! #%!&%

"%* %! !"#% $&$$&*    %/  &   %

"%* ! !$% %!  %#$ %! #$$ %   %$ %%

%#% #! $%%*.

		 
 
 
 

 
		
		 

		

%     %&# #$!&# $$&$ $!&  '( $ #!$$/

&%% $$&$ #%# %  "#!  %* % ! #  ! % 	20
!$%$1.

% ('"%$#!$$%! %! &-"  ,

!$%$,%#  , #%! $"/& (% %! $ %.

 %# *""#!$$$ %%!#$$ %/ #%

%!"$ $  * ! % %$ # !&%$ %  % ! /$"

#$"! $%$.

    !# &$& !$ !# #$$  %

 /#%$$&$. %%%$
! $!"%%!&$%$


#% #$"  0	31 %!  !  %$ $$&$. %'# % ""#!,

%$$$&$&%#!$$%	/$%$%#&%&#.

!% %! $ !"! %$  %	! %%.
ROLES OF THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE I 99

 %#*  $ '# %)!#%$

 $$ %  #$ &#$,  %#$! #%% , $$#* %  $&!! #% ,

(!!# !#%,%#%  #%$%  #%%

%#%$% % $&#%*.

# # #$ &#$ &%$ % $  #* %!! * %  %%

 $ %  ! #$$ %   $$%# #$ #&% 

%$, .., 0$ 
#' 	%%', # $#'$, % % 

&#,/#&!# #$. #)!,& %%#*'

#$)!#%$#$$% &##$#'&%$.


		


			
 





 #! %% $$ &-

 	%*#*(#% #$ #% $#$#%% 0$

$$ $%.

 	 #! #%%&# %&#$'(

$$&% % %% #$ #*,

$&#%*,%% %%#!!$.

 #%$*#%&%%% &#$%%

!% $ %#$ &#$#%$%#

# % $&!! #%%#!!$.

 	&%#%%#!!$#*, ,(%#,

$$%##$#&% $%#%$!$ ##&

'&#%$(%%##$!%'$.

 #$$ #$*$%%*#$ &#$* %%#% 

 %% $%#&%&#,% &%% &#

%$%%
#%#$!
# #,$#'#&%$$&$

'%$ ,/!# #$$&

$	%%#%'# %$#

' !%
# #.

  &%$*$%%#  #' # +!%

$$$$%$% %*%#$(#%##$ &#$$ &

 &$. %$,$ &#"&$%%%%	0$%

&#%*%#!# '#! #% %

%$ %$! %$%##$!%'#$ #$! $%*.
100 I CHAPTER 5 


	*



	"$*

$
#
%

 

+



"


$

$(%%$$
$

)%

 
'

!


&
%


!


"
"%

 





 %
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 101

 	
	



$ %# &  !%# 6, % &##%  %   $#'% 

   $$%$ ( ! #%%  #  &% )! #% #* %

$  % $%%&%# &$%,$&$%, # !#$'#$ &#

 ##%% % #$%$/' !"&%%

!# % $(#"&# %#&% $ # , !#% (%,%

  '#%  
, 
,     &#'*,  % %#

% *- % !#%%$  #&%&#, $, #*,

 %%-  %#$ (% %,  #!,   , $ , 

! %$$/& %$)!#%$$ &%$% '#%,

&'#$%$, %!#'%$% #,
$($  % ' '/

#$%%0&%&#(#"&#%#$%! $$

 #%, !$$ %( #1$$%)!#%$/$(%**$%#*140

% $%%'(* %  %&#$%%* %  %#%%,  #

%  $% !#%, $  ! "&$% , %#$!#% %     %$

$%&*/  !#%%+ %  !% #$#  *

#!# #$$/

	
	




%' !  )&%   %  #$! $$ #

!##* )#$$  #$ %/ $ $  !# $$ 2&# 063

' ' %  %   '&%    #% , "&%%  

&#%%$, '&%   #$$ 2   !%3,  #$! $

 !% $,$ 0,%#%'#0'&% /141%#$

% $#$ *  %  #%  #$ &#$  $ 0

 !# $$$ ' '  %# $ 0 !# $$$ #*

! ** '#%$,&$$$$, %# #+% $/142%$#$

%#%% $$ %# &$% $(%!% $

 %$&!! #% #% #$ &#$.

 #$% $*$%'#%*)%#$



685/(275593/

686/#4$% $.  #%'$ $% $


%% %,
% 
$# &,	
		



2$% ,//.
% $#$$,75653/

687/	*%/275663/
102 I APPENDIX A 

 
)!


 

*+

 




	



	


  
  
 
# 


  

 

  
! 

!%

! 
  

 


 

! 

  $  

  
#


# 
# 

 
"

   
   








!






  $ 	 
!  

   
!




"



!


 
.,--



  
 

 3$, 

# 
# 

 




 
  
 
 
$143 	 
  




-0/$*
.1#.,--+










!









!
02

!


3$,




$
#

&



*





-/



+




'
(




*$$#




 







%





+$	





'
(

 





$
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 103

 # ( # "#( !$ "## 5! # "#(

!" # ! $(  #"#(  # '#!" "$ " #

&%". !$#. %( !##. "#! "$!".  #! ("

&("#!""##('"#!#!"$!"#$!#(

!!"##"#!$##"%#"0#"#!$"

#""#(!$#.##(!!%!"#!"1!""%#"

! # #".  & # !#2" # "("# $!"  1

! !"". ""#( "# #  $##%( !# 

!( !#!) & "##( !.144  # '! $!#! 

'0"0

#  %%" !# $ !""  !  "# 

#!""###%!"'"#$!"#!#

!" # !"""0 %# !" """"# ! #!

(" 7$!!"8  #! "%! &#! $!!#( %!"

"!%#""&#" #!$5!"

!"#"  &"#"0 &%!. &#! !"#"  "$!#

"!%#" $"  #"" ! ! $!" # (" &!"

#!"#!!##!)"""""#"0
#

""#!""$"#(+$7<:;:8%!$#.#$#!

7<::>8#"$".7<:;;8!# $"!"#!!!"#

!1!#")!#%("!#1%%#"

!#!"!##"#$#"0&%!."$%#"!!%

(!#!##!"""0$".!"#!#.

#"'##.&!%!##$#$!#0145

  
* $#! "# "  ##! '   #

##.  "#!. &1! $( 700. 9#"8 !!# &#

#!(""0!!$!$"'"##!#$!#

# !"  !#  "$ !1" $ # %

1#"! !$#   # !#1! #"0

" $ #! 6
!# ! ##!" ""# &#


. &!1! $( %!#" #& #  5
. #

" " 5!  !.  # $  # 



;>>0	##0.3#"#!#2"#"("#.4		

	


	

		;:?.0@7<::B8/;AB@6;AC=0

;>?0"$#!###.&%!""#!(&##".&".

#!(.#(#!(!$((!""%"0
104 I APPENDIX A 

# $# *'$%#7)!#) !")3146 )' )!$##)$#( (%# )

$*#'($$%.((#$#$"(0(*(="(($#("$

# #)'#)$#! )'0147 ) !)'! )'#(%$') %'$!"  . '$#

$*#)# (.()"( ,) ') "%!)$#( $' ) )"$(%' #

!")$'#3

#!!.0 ) '(%$#( (% $' !") # '(  "#"#) (

!'0 (%### "))$# 9$')( )$ "#"/ !") # .

()!/#'#$*(("(($#(:0%))$#9%'$)+#')+

$')()$"#"/)($)!"%)($!")#:0$##'#

9,!' $%)$#(' *')'#%%#-:0#%)# 9#$

)$#:3*')'"$'0)#)')$#(),#)('(%$#($%)$#('

$"%!- # *#')#0 $)# )'"( $ ($#4" # 9$#$"#

%$!.$#(')$#(:#))($#)')(.()"3148$'-"%!0

# ) %#4)'$%(0 %*! # %'+) !#$,#'( ' !'. $' )$

$$( ),# %'('+#  ()# $ $'() )$ '+  '$# $()

') *#' ) #) )$#( %'$'" )$ * "(($#( '$"

$'())$# # $'() ')$# +'(*( %!#)# $*!( +'(*(

%!#)# '# $' $$0 ,) "%!)$#( $# ) '$#4.!

9$#)'*)#)$!")#:0$(.()"(0,)'((0#'*!)*'3


#%')0+#),'#$($#" '(#$"%!-).$

) (*%%$')# #$'")$#0 )' ,!!  #$ $#4(/4)(4!! !")

#'( "#"#)(.()"3#$)$#!'",$' $'!")#

'( "#"#)#*'4=(#)'$*)$$'($"$#)-)'$"

 $+'#"#) %'(%)+ $' ) $!!$,# +!*)$# $ #$'")$#

(.()"( # '!) %'$(((3  '",$'  ( '$*# # +'$*(

#$'")$#(.()"(,$'#%*))$(((("#)%'$(((3



<?A32	$'!#)!39=;;?:13#$)03'/( 0#
3$'05*""'!4

)!$##)$##!)"(!+')$#(06
<C

9=;;<:2>;>8>=;1#)!35!$##)$#(),#
##$#($$##

!"#!!#)''##06=>

9=;;>:2<B>8<CA3

<?B3+(#!'05$#(*"%)$#4($*#)#$=06 



	

9=;<;:3

<?C3333!#03	*&03#)$#033$,##033!(033$#($#0#3
3

$)05
#)'4'!)$#(%(),#%))$##"))$#6#! "



3$#)'*)$#$$' #'$*%

)$)$*')

(((("#)%$')$)
#)'$+'#"#)!#!$#!")#03
3''.033

#/#033!*) $033+#'
###33	#($#0(39"'02

"'#+'().'((0=;;B:%%3B?@8BBB3
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 105

	

	

	

	

	
	




!	!
 
	


  	 "  
 
 	  

  
 	 
 

 "  


	
! 	

 
!   
	
! 	
! 
 

"

	    	 
    

#		
" 


! 

 ! 	

	
	





		


"	
	!
!

	"

    	 
	 	 

	 	      		! 	 		!

		! 
 	     	 
 

   	  	 
 	

  
	 "   	
 
106 I APPENDIX A 

! "!  !#"!   !

!*      !  $  !!( !!(

  *! $   !)   !

$ ( &!    ! !! !!

! & ! "!    ! !&  !  ' !

!" *!!!!  ! )

  * %"!# "! !!  ! $

# & ! ! & !     !   ! 

! ! &(!(&! !&(

!  " ) &( !  %"!# "! $" #   !

# !  !!  ! !   

! $)   $* !"!   !

$( ! ! & !     ! "! $"

# "!   !  * %"!#( !! $!

$* " ! "!!    $$

!$!! ! "!   !)

 !! !"! !    "    

!$ ! )






		


!#!! & ! $!!& !

 !"!  %! #!  # &  !( "

"! (! (  "!!   #  "!

  !)


 ! $  !!# !!&!#&

 !!  $  !  $    ! "!" !

"!&!# ! #!& !!

&  !!  !!)

! & !     !     ! "! 

"!& ! !!!!     !$    ! 

!$ " !!  ! !#!)

 !!! "$&&#" '!  " 

  ! 
   
  	 +

	,( 

 & !!! !"! (!!"(!!

! !$ "!!
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 107

"("#"""""#!"""#(#%!#

!#!##"+

#"$"!##$!"#(")$"

& $ # %  #!$( !# # !# "("#)

##!""!"$#"####")####%


 # !%  !# !!" ( !% "$# #

#!"#"+

	





##!$#"   !# # !# "("# $) $#

!##)#*

 
)"$"###!$#%!")

$"!%#")"##,,#,!#!#"("#")

%#""#!"""

 	"##"!%#!!$#"

 !%!$"#!!"""#&#""#

#%!"

 !%#!!"&#%!(,!%#

"#,#!!"$##%!"")!#"

#%$&!"

 #(##!!!$#""##&#"

!#"

 ""$!##"#"(#""""""#

#!"###!!"#"###!"

 
#""####$!##( $##)!#)

%##

 !"!(!!$#("!%##)")

""$!##"(""

 '!#"##!!##"$!#!""""!"

$"!"

 $"#"$!#!#!"!

 '#(#!"#"""!!!"!)$

!#&#,!#)!"!,!%"!%#"
108 I APPENDIX A 

!!" # "!$$ $ "$ )#$ "

$#"&$$$$##$ ! #%## '$$

#$ %$) "# )"#.149
+ "	$ "  

"*$  4	5+  " %!  "$ #"&$ # " !"!

"#  $) $ #  !$$  !$ #  " $

#"&#  "$ #"&$  #)#$#.150 
 # "##&)

' "$ #$#
$ $"& "$$$$#.151+152 

$+ $
 $ "&  "$ #")  %#  " "*

$)$ (#$
 #"&$ #)#$#+$$"#+

 #+  "$ "#+ #( 
  $ $"#+   
 

$"$####$$"#%"#$$).

153

!"$$ $" "#!$)#$#$$

$"#154$$&#  &"!'$
0#" $"#.


$"& !$%# $"# %"# $ !"$ 
$ 

$""&# ##$  "! "$ "$ " $" "

 %$) 4..+ 
 # #% # 
+ !"$$ 

$" "3+!"$$ ")+
$  %$ +$

$$$#!"$$ "%$%".

$$$ #%""$$ #"&$ # #'"

#"!$"7+$"" $##$  %## $ $"

)$# $ "$ #)#$"$!" ###.



7:=.	#$.+1!!" $ #$ $#"&+2	



	
		4866<5.

7;6.$$!-33'''. . &3,$$!-33'''.' .$3!#3$#3$,

$$!-33'''."$ #"&$ #. "

7;7.	 " +1)" ! ##$"&$ !%"!$$ +2+

=+8676+$$!-33'''.)$#. 3'"3867636836=36=$'"/)/

'/"$/$ /$/#"&/<9<69.$

7;8.&"$#!" %$#" $
$"&%4 "$5-

%$ !# " #$ %$#$$"$$#$& "$  

#&"#!$$"#  #$#$ "#,$!" $ #$ !

"#!%$%"")$#"&##,$!"!$$ 

 #$ !""# '$!$ $ $"" !#,"&$

#$ "$$$" #$$/ /$/"$$ #$  "

&#$$! "%####  &"$#," %$&%"$)

"#####$# "$/##$&" ##$ "#.

7;9.$$!-33'''. . &3$.$

7;:.$$!-33'''. . &3'$' 3$3#$"$)3/	!.
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 109

	








(((("#)$')((*()
%'$((/(#)'$*#%)'

; $ )( '%$')/ %'$+  ')! (#) '($*' $' !") #

*#'()## # (((("#) ( ,!! ( $' %$)#)!!. #$'"#

$#$" # %$!)! ($#2" #1  #)'! !"#) $ )(

(((("#) %$')( ( ) !") "$! %'$)$#( " # )

$' # '$*% 
 '%$')8(9 # #')!. # ) "%)(6%))$# #

"))$# $' # '$*% 

 # 


 '%$')(1 ( &*#)))+

%'$)$#( ' ( $# .#"!/ "*!)2$"%$##)/ $*%! !$!

!")"$!(8
(9/#$,$)#''' )$(')(.()""$!((

).$""$'$"%'#(+811/#!*#)'$#.!91!$!

$('+)$#( +!$# #((#)! $' %'$+# '($*'( $'"$!

+!$%"#) # +!)$# 811/ '$%! #!! 
(*'# 
(($#

8

9%'%))$#/'))$#*)-%'"#)6!$*(#)

')3( #) #'. .()"( ')$# *)/ 
#)'#)$#! )!!)

!$* !")$!$. '$) !$* $+'/ # 
6
 ,)' +%$'91 
# )

$#)-)$ 
/(*$('+)$#('$"#((#)!("#( $'

&*#).# ) *#')#)( (($) ,) )( !") #

%'$)$#(1 
# )/ ) ')' #, # #$'"! '(' #

+!$%"#))+)((($),)"$!")'($'
(("$+#

)$,' "$' $'"! +!$%"#) # %%!)$# $ ")'( # ( !!

($'( , # / # ' #/ -%!$' $' *( $' &*#)))+

,)#$##("!$"$!%'$)$#(1

*'( 2= # 2> ($, '(*!)( '$" ),$ '#) -"#)$#( $


 !). ( $# $*%! 
$! 
#)'$"%'($# '$) 8

9


!")("*!)$#'+(1(()*('),$$)'()155))

))"%) )$ (.()")!!. # &*#)))+!. ($' 
 !). '$((

) 

'+8(9#'$(( #*"' $ &*#))(6%'$(((1 (

))"%)(/ # )' *')' '#"#)(/ ' '*! $' &*#)))+

,)# $ *)*' !") %'$)$#( 811/ %'$)$#( '$" %$$''

%'$'"#"$!( $')$('+!"),$*!+#!((,)91

*'2=($,(#-"%!$%$')')'"'$"! !')!1156



;??11
1
*'%./1
1	1-)$#/11'#))/11$#(/
11/#
1$!!#(/

4*#))$#$"$!!#*#')#)(#!'#("!$!")#

("*!)$#(/5>=:/#$1A::;8<::>90A@B7AA<1

;?@11! !'/1'''$/#11!('/))'*($()!!))#+!*)#

!")"$!($#)'*)#)$

#((((.
/$#)2,$' ($%/

,'#+'"$')$#!$')$'./)$';<2;=/<:;://
#'((1
110 I APPENDIX A 

'


&$


'


"%)($!%)))#


"	#157

 
 

 
  # 
 

   
 
   
 
  
0


 /-#
%
$



 %
%

 





#$



(


     
  #
    

% 
  !   
 
 
 )
  



# (



.12( 
)-(/



/-3

#




#(

#


!


 !
#+
,




+!
,

(

'
*




"&"""* 
	


!
 


!
 



 &%*

%


 &%!


%
!


 

&
 




!
!%#%





 (
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 111

$' $) $ )( ((0 ) $('+)$#( ' ( $#  #*"' $

'#!.(( %'$*)( #  , ()!!) &*#))(2  !))' #!*( )

()!!) ) ( $# !$! '%))$# !")$!$. '$)

9:8!") ')$# #)' ' #!.(( $ '%))$# $'

'#!!0 	#)'#)$#! )!!) !$* !")$!$. '$) $' )$)! !$*

$+'0
)'%$''$)$'%'%)!,)'0#'))$#

*) -%'"#)8!$*( # ) ')5( #) #'. .()"( $'

($'),+ #!$# ,+ ')$# %'$*)(2
$) $,+'0 ) ,!) $

!$! ()!!) ) %'$*)( )) ' $# *#*)!/# (* +!*)$#(0

#!*#"$()$ )')('+)$#.()"#3'#%!)$'"(#

#()'*"#)( 9220''0&*0*':0(,!!$"%!"#)'.')#

%!)$'"( (* ( 0 8

3=8# *' $%$'%.

(($#0#)(*)$$#+)$',#%'$*)(2

*' 3@ ($,( '(*!)( '$" !' # "158 ,$ *)!/

$('+)$#3( ")'( )$ -"# # ')'/ ) ' ))

"$!((,$!+"%'$+#( !!$+')"2.%%!')'

("%!")'($#)##*!"#!")$!$.#$+'#*"'$

+'!( )$ ) (*) $ "$! ("*!)$#( )) " *% ) 9;=CC=:

	=09;=CCB:	>0#9;><<A:	?"$!'+(2	#)((0

)'(!'!!*()')$#))%%!)$#$$#(()#)()$")'()$

"*!)#')$#!()$"$!(#)(#'("$! !).$+'

) !() ),$ (2 ( ,) ) ! !' ) !2 ()*.0 ) ')

#$'")$# '$" ()!!) $('+)$#( ( -)'"!. !") +# )

') $ +!! $('+)$#( # $#!. #+$!+(0 # )( (0

%'%))$#0 !$* $+'0 ( 0 ( (*' )"%')*'0 # )

#')#%*)()$"$!3#!*#'#!.((&*#))(2



=AB22!'#
2"06$,,!!$$*%!"$!(("*!))$.5(!")47



	


BC0#$2?9><<B:1?<?2
112 I APPENDIX A 

		
		

	

	

	
		159

'&&+!!%$(&! %-"$&'$+%&&!%$(&! %- !&

!($%&&!$&$'% !(!" & ('&! 0'$

1< %!)% $%'&% !    +%% ! 97&  &'$+ 	: ! !'&"'&

"& $!%$&0160 &&'%&$&% &$1!$ & 

! 1&$  '   !   ('% ! & !'$ #' &&%/



8<?0%&"$!$ !%(!)	9('% $!&&!)$&&0$

%,% && &!&?<@!   &$(%0&&$%  '$% &+

 ('!%5 !&%!) 6.'*1!$$&!%$ $0$+$%

%!)&($	9!!%)& ! !$!'"0$% &&	9!

&'&1! & !($! !$!'"0$ $56!$$%"! %

&!&	9!&
&!  &$%!$ ($!  &$&! 4
&!  &$!$

&!%"$%$$ +%%05$&6&($% (&! &0

8=70/0%$-
00!-0'$&- 0
!'-2!)&$+$ &

 &&!%%%%% &	;-3	
				:;- !08=

5977>6. 0%$&0-2!'/&! )&% % 

*"&&! %!"$!$%%-3

	
				88;5977?60
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 113

"$"&&! -"$"&)&$-!'$&! -  &$&!'

)&$ "&0 !& % && &  &$1! $ & &) 

"$"&&! - "$"& )&$-   !' $&!  % $&(+ !!0

% #' &&% ( $&(+! 1( 5% & 9@?8% !$ !$6

! %&& $!$% !$ ) ! (!" &   ('&! 

(    &! ! %& &+ '&, 500- - 

- & &


$&!  &$7%$+%%!
$"&&!  !$ $ .4	-

&$"!$
$!&!$"$"&)&$.	 &$ &! &&

!' &!!+ 
$!& !$ !' $&! 60 	  ! &$%&- &  &$1

! $ & !$ &  )&$ "& % #'& "!!$0 (  )  &

$&%& !'&$% $ $!(- &$ % %&  &!$ ! %* &)  &

$  $%& %%&!('%0!$&' &+- &%

!)&$"&-!$$!'%&$&$(%(!()&&

( &!!'&- &%$!' $& &%$*"&&!

$&+"$!(0161

( &$!&&% &$%'&! % "$!&! %"+ 

& 	
 "$!%%- !& ! + &! & %  ! &   '& %!

"!%%+ &! %!  %'""!$& %%!& )& %! ! & !%& %!+1

"!$& &"&%!!& -&%"$&(&!! %$&

!(   5%6!$$ %&+-  &!   &%&"% &!(!"

 *"!$ &'%!!$ !$&$% (&! "$!'$% 

!$$ &! ' & &+ ! & % && ! &$'& &! %+ &%%

%%%% &%-%'%	
0



9>90
00$ $&-00-00%'%% - 00
$%! %-2  

$&$!"$"&&! -3

	


?<- !0@

5:88;6/9:8=0
114 I APPENDIX A 


&
	 	
	
		
		
	

	

#('"!#((%

$"


	

 
	
		


%

! ') # $!&#! !# $#( !$#(

$"" #!" # !%  $!  $###% #( #

%$#" #! !#" #! #!!%# %!

#) &# !"$#" ( $" ( # 
+  # #! " 

$##$#(+!""#")#!

!$	$!'!###!!$$

&#""!"!
-"!#"!!!

%#(!##!"+From 2010–2011, the task force 

was active in developing a proposal to "#!# identifying and applying a set of 

metrics to climate model results with a particular near-term objective, CMIP5.

 $"#"##!#%##$"!$###!"*

! #"!%,  #( !!%) # & !"

#!%#,!!!"#,

#()#"##%!"#(!$##!"&!%

$"$"$!"%!!!+
$#!"&#$!
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 115

 " " ! %      ! !#& $! !    

!! # !
3.++("  

 ( %!& !$!&     & #  

  0  "/+ 	! !!   !   ! 

 !# !  !!"!&" 

 & $  !    #! !   

  "!+

 !  $ &   ( !$   "    !

!# ! ! !     !* 1/  #! 

  !!$   #"!!"!"! "!

 ! #(!&# !#$&

$"!-$!! )(2/!!&

  !!#&!!" !!+

! !!"! !#!

#"!   !   !! #  !& !  ! !

 #!+

 #!  !   #!,  ! 

#"!&!#"! (!!

#!#!(!!&#!#( ,!

$!  ! !   ! +   !!!  &

& !!&!"$!!"!&+

 !!	!& !!! 

""!'#!#"!(!"&(

"   #!, !! +

&  $!! "!!" !

$ #! " $#+


		



!"!!! ( !!

  " !""! ! !$! 
 ( " & "!&

"!! ( & ! ! (  !  !,   

! ! ! + !&( ! !   ! 

 !   !   ! ! !  !

 !"! #"!  !! +
116 I APPENDIX A 

"$ !##!" !(! !$#(*#""!%##

"#"$"# ('#"%##%!#" #

"" "#!$##* !#"  ( # !#!%  ("

 !#!" ! # !& #* !# $!%"* #, # 

!%  !$" ! #" # $ ' !# #! !##

 "$ !# ! $"!" "  !  #  ( # !#

"("#, 	
." '"# 	# # # #!* 	# 


##!*	# ("##!!"%!"$""#"

!#!#	
#
!%,

	
." !# 
"!% 
("# #  !# 
("#

"  "#!$#" # !$#" #!$ # "#!$# #%

!%#!"162" #&#(-##!""%!#

#" !*"*"$!,



." !# 
"!%#"  
 #!163 !%" "" #

#-!%# !# $ ! (* !$#* %##

#!*%!/$"*!*& #"*# ! (,

 #!"   $# $#"*  # # # % $##"* %!$"

!)#"  !!" "$ " # 164  # !! !

#  ""  #! !"165 ! # !"$#" 

%$""$#" !#",

 #!"  # % # !"$!"* # "$!#* 

!%"#!#"*&!#"%"("##( #)"!%#

!#"* !%"*  ""# "#!#" ! # "  $" 

#%$# !%#,


		


 %#(  !$"# # # !!"* #!"*  " #(

!"%"#!$#"""##%!""#"$#

# "$ !# $!# """"#  #  !""  "-

,   #  " "$ !# #" !)" #  !



384,	
2"!#
"!%
("##!#
("#

0## +//"",",",%/1

385,

2"!#"$!"
"!%#
#!0## +//!",$"",%/1

386,2"#"#!$##!0## +//&&&, -#,!/1

387,!!!#""#! !"0## +//&&&-

 ,,%/1
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 117

#"##!##&#""#

#!"-

# " "$!# #" ! $  !$ (

%!# " 0# !"!  !# ##"1* #.

#"**!)#"*!%#$"#!(-

# !&!#"!!#*""$!##"!#!#"

!##!#"("#"&!!$(#"#!

"$ #"-  & '" !  !"%

$"#!##"$#""%!'"##.!%#

""$!##"-


##!#!$#!#
("#"(


 &# "$!# ! #! "  " ! # #


##"(#,

 !%!(&!$#!##!$#"

 ""# $#(#!#$#!$#""

 !%!#$#!"#!$#"#!#

""#!"

 !%!#$#"#!$#"!!"#

$!"#$!!##"

 '&#!**##"!$#"

 !%!$!!#"#!"#"$""!$#.

!#""$"

!(!
("#
#&!0

1"
.

$ #%#( # (  !#!" #& 

* 

*


* 
 !##  !$#$!*  " #!#* -



!#"&##!#*!*#!#!"

# !% #(  !!$" !( &!  %$!#(

!#!%%"$!#(""$"-

"

!#!"#!"+#!+#!!+"#!*


$#!*"#!!+#	"#-167



233-
##!#!$#!#
("#0##,//&&&-!$#-%1

234-!(!
("#
#&!0##,//&&&-&"-#1
118 I APPENDIX A 

"%!%('(%%)2&%"#+#"%%168'(%&!%1%1

' "%"#"!'"!!"% '"!&"!'&'' %,!

*'%'#%"&&,'
%"('"!&' '&!%"#&&&& !'

)&"!0  #% %, &&"! " '& )&"! & '" #%"( ' "&'

"') ! (%' &&&& !' " ' " %('(% #%"('"!

"('""! ' "!'"!&'! "" &(%',! '*"%0"!

!,&'& (&  "%# 	!"% '"! ,&'  '" "' %'

!'!!"%&'%"#%"('"!!( %&"%%!&."

&&. ! "''"!0  ' #& " "% %"# %"*! %"!& %

(#' )%, '! ,& '" #' ' '&' &''&'& #%'!! '"

)'') )"%. #%#''"!. ' #%'(%. ! &" "&'(%0  1

&%&%'&#'(%%!'!&'"%%"*!&&"!'"%&#

%"1 '"%"" -"!&0 "! %"# !%& ! %"# % #&

%&")"%&'%"!&0

 "! &(-'"! ! 
"!'"%! ,&'  !'').  	1

(!')', # !',!""%'"!*'%"!#%'!%&

!!'%%.%.!!'%&.!'%'&&''"&%)'"!&.

%"(!1& '. ! "%&' "& '" "!'"% ! "%&'

!)%"! !'!&!'" #%")%&#"!&'"!'(%&&'%&0169

! '(% " "! ! !,  ' &"! &(##"%' '""& &

)&(-'"!.#%'(%,'##'"!""%#	!"% '"!,&' 

'!$(&0"!#'"%& ##!&%$(!', #",!"(&!

)(!%',&&'&!%"!&&(&%0170	!'. "&'"'%!&

)! '" '& '& "% ")% ' "(%& " ' &'(, #%&!'  %

!( % " #& "!&'%(' *' "%# 	!"% '"! ,&'  '""&

(&'%'! ' #'&!)(!%'&")%"(&%"!&0'

 "')'"! "% &#', %&") )&(-'"! & (!%&'!. &" 

('"!! '%!'%#%''"!& *%%!'0
"&'"%# 	!"% '"!

,&'  '""&  #", "! "% "% "&%)'"! ' &'& !3"% "

"('#('& '" )&(-'"!0 & !"% '"! & !"' !&&%, ##

"!&&'!',400.&,%&"%& %'&'&5!&!!'%%"%&!

+&'. "' ! '% & " %&'%! ' '"  )! % ! ! '% & "

%!& '*! (!%,! ' &'&0 
'"& "% %#%&!'! !



8:<0#%' !'"%('(%"%!%('(%%)6&%"#+#"%%

4''#/33***0#0&0(&0")3%"#+#"%%35

8:=0"!&(-'"!!
"!'"%!,&' 4''#/33***0&%)%0!'3!35

8;70(&,'04978750
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 119

 #      	#

 
#   !'% "

  " # %   
   

%!
#'


#

!#'%$

!$#'

		

	

	


  !    
   $

 #    (     

%



!'

!#!%

        ! #  %

%% !'


!(
#

!	# !


#% %
'



 
# #    #  

!
#'


! 

	 " 

    !     

#%       
  #  
%


##!&

 ! 

!

 	 	%



  !#

 # #
120 I APPENDIX A 

+$$ %( "#* $%(#*%$ )/)*#) $ )/$*)) ))))#$*

8!$%-"90 (,)  )#"" (*%$ % +$$ ,"" %( ()&%$)

*%$)8%$*(%"92%(.#&"0%$"/<2@&($*%*($,"%&#$*

$!4) +(($* &**%$ +* 8;@A #""%$ %+* % ;A2D ""%$9 )

""%**%!$%-"$%#&*$/+"$2171
$*$***)0*

+$$)&((%))0
00&(*#$*%$(/0*%$"

$ %+$*%$0 &(*#$* % (+"*+(0 $ %*( $) %(

><<B7><<D ""%* *% ()( ))%* -* &*%$ $ #**%$

-)&&(%.#*"/>A&($*0%(;?<<#""%$&(/(0%*:;=2>""%$

*%*"  +*2172 	%-,(0 *) $ (&()$*) * "#*

$%(#*%$ 8!$%-"9 %#&%$$* % "#* $ ()! #$#$*0

$%* * ()&%$) 8%$*(%"9 )&*2 )! #$() , $%* * $ *%

(* 5-""3)$ $ '+*"/ ()%+( ! "%%&) *%

*,"/ $%(&%(* $- * $ ,$#$*) $ )$*

+$()*$$$)+&&%(*%$*$+"($#$*$,"*%$%$"/))0

#&*&(% *%$)0$*,()&%$)#$)#)26173

)$$$*$*%$()%(*)*%%((%("%"

%+) (",$* *% * $) % * $)0 &"%#/0 $ ,"%&#$*

$) -) ")% $%* $ * ($* &(%()) (&%(* % * 


$*($/"#*$&**%$)!%(2174

 ()( *% %&(*%$) &(%)) ) $ #&"%/ %( ) *%

,"%& $ *($)( )$* $%(#*%$ )/)*#) (%# $ .&"%(*%(/

)$#%$*%%&(*%$"&"*)2)($))+)0

* $*%$" "%(*%()0 $ *( &(*$() $ # )(, )

&*$() %( ()( $ ,"%&#$* % $)*(+#$**%$0 *

&(%+*)0$#%")**((+""/8%,(%(#%(%(,$

9 *($)(( $*% $ %&(*%$" $,(%$#$* / $) )+ )


 %(  (,$ / )*(* &"$$$2 
* ) $%* "(  * 

%,($#$*)%$)+&*%("#*$%(#*%$)/)*#2&(*"



=B=2$*%$//%$0"%!$

 #&()$**%$*%*$)$%()!%(%$"#*

$0 %,#(C0><=<2

=B>2$***)"%"$)((%(#0	0"=2

><<B7><<D"#*$$(%(#+*/%"$%+)(8><=<92

=B?2/*"28><==92

=B@2*	%+)%+$"%$$,(%$#$*"+"*/0


!
$

!8)$*%$0221.+*,
%

*()$*0><=<92
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 121

$ """ +"#+ #& (' "' ' &#) - (" -&'/ " ( )&&"(

#&.#"&&" !(#'&*(#"''&#) -:8:81

 & #"&" #(" ,$&'' " #"'&" #$&(#"   !(

'&*''("(#&!"  , (#'#*&-1-$#"(&'

&#"(#"#("(#')$&#''1

)&&"( -/#&('(#&''('$& !((#$&#(')"-

/ ') ' 3' #"  ') .(#" " #"(#&" -'(!1

'$ #(#&('#&## ('($&( ' #& ($ #-!"(# !(

"#&!(#"$&#)('/(" "&'(&)()&/"(&"""* #$"

#)"(&' )( & '(  !( " ( '#$/ )""/ " &( # 

'" " ("  $ (- !$ #-1  
"(&"-  !(

" $((#" ' #& &#". ( '! " " !(

# #+" &#!!"(#"0 4* #$  #*&"!"(2+ '(&(- (#

')$$#&( !) ( (&  "  (&  $((#" (*(' " "(&(

$((#""(#& *"(11#&"'''("$&#&!'159><


						


 #)($)(' #  !( "#&!(#" '-'(!' " #(& "#&!(#"

'-'(!'!)'("(&(" (&( (#'-"(''''''!"("#&&

(# (&"' ( ##$-'  ( "(# !(&' & *"( (# +(&/ ##/

' (&/ "&-/ ')&(-/  (/ " #(& '#(  !$( &'1 '

&%)&' ( $$ (#" # " "(&'$ "&- $$&# "*# *" (

$-' '"'/'# '"'/#"#!'/"$# -1-#"'()-"

)&&"( " $'(  !( ( " #(& ( '('/ '-"('' ''''!"(

"(' &#! "" !$( " &'$#"' '"&#' " &)"""

'!) (#"'(#* )($#("( #)(#!'"&''1

 

 #&' $&$' ( '( "#+" ,!$  # '-"(''

''''!"( #&  !( "1 #)& 

 ''''!"( &$#&(' * "

& ' (# (0 9??8/ 9??</ :889/ " :88>1  ( ''''!"( '

)&&"( - )"&+- " ')  #& $) (#" " & - :89</ +( 

# #& '""*"#$-- (:89;1

 $&#'' " (! " #& "&(" ( 

 '-"(''

''''!"(' &  )'(&( " )& 2=1 "  " #$&(#"   !(



9><1(	#)'#)" #""*&#"!"( ) (-6:89871
122 I APPENDIX A 


  

  
#  # 
  
  


 % !! 
'
 
!  
% 


  ! '       %    

% 
  
"

   )"#    
 ! 
 

" ! ) 
 (      
$&   %  

!
 

  
  
 (  ! 

 
%
 

( 
'



 "   ! 
   
  
    

 
%!  

 !()"#

 
 (     
'   
  
 % 
 




#

 # 
  %  )

"#!

 ( 
%'
! 
 ' 
 

 ! "#

"%

!" 

  
(     
  " 
 
 "
  
 


 

'
"#  )! 
! 

"   %(






	




	!! 

	
 +,,*

  " 
 
 
 
      "% ! %
 
 

!


%  


 !
" '


! !' % !  
 !' 
 
 #
  !'

 
 
 ' !
 
  
 #
' !
 
 % ' 

CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 123

  '#$%*/176%$ *+$&##%%#$ , %

&0&%&#,!# %$ # %#$  # %$&$"&%

%(%*0' %   &# *#$/   #, %(  $& %  $$$$%$

'!# &, 9777,% %#977=/)%$$$$%$

&978:(# #  %!#' &$$$$$%$*2 #

 &$  '&% % 
% 1$ !# #$$  !%%   %% 

&   0%#,  $$%% !# $$  # '&%   %0#%

#$$  !! #%&%$, &  %  $%  % #$  -

!# '  #%  %% $&!! #%$ $ 0 !# $$$ (%

# $$% #$ %%%%$-'&%%&##%$%% 

$%  ( #%' %  % !%$  %#$/3177  %

 $$$$%$, % 
 %  $$$$%, %# %  %

  % %#$, $ %  $ ! %  % % %%$/  %

%  $$$$%  ($  !#  &$  #     $$&$ 

%%%$%%$$$$%,% #)%%,% $ %#$$

%#% $$&$/


%*,$*%$$$$$$%$ &$ $!!# #%*#$'

 &%* #+% $%%%%$/)!$&%

'# %% $#$56# %!%*%

%# %
% &#%*,  &% &# %

&$!$  % 	$&#%$  #% %  # '# % *$$

!# #/   $$ %  % # '# % $%#$$$& *

%, &$ $&#%$     $&#%* % #$

$#!%' % &!&0'# %$*$%/%*,% &$

  %  !# % $  #$(%# '%*, &%%* #  

 '#  $&0%  #$ &%  (%  %* &!%$   #(#

!# % $/   $$$$% &$  $*%$$  % $%#$$$

5$!  $ $& $ %!#%&#, !#!%% , $   $%&#, 

#'#  (6, '# % % #$ 5 4 4*# $!#6, $    

! %% #$% %*#$0#%(%##$ &# %$! %$/

 %#)!   &$$$$$%&$ #$*$$ *

%!#%% #*1$
%  #% #$ %%$$

 %   $ !# % $  # %!#%&# 

!#!%% ,&$*#   % !% $!# % $% &%&#



8<;/%%!.44(((/ / '4(%0(0 4$$$$%40 '#'(

8<</2//
% %$$$$%%'$,# ! $ !$,
)%%!$,3


	
;7, /9875!%#<,97876/
124 I APPENDIX A 

)&$ (&+   )&$ "$!'&! - &  ""  $!! !

! &! %&& & "!& & ! ! ! %#' % !$ &  &

&&%%)!  ('%&&%!$&"$!=;<;5=;?;/178

  !$ "$!( !&!     &$&!  ! '&"

 !$&!  &+"% 6&- ! !- %'$&+- !$"%- &-  

!&$ &!$%7 !&!($%&&/'$0A'%&$&%&$%'&%!

%+ &%% +%%+$&/&&! &&6"$"&&! 7

  !&$  !$&!  6'  &%   (%&! !%%%7 &&$'& &!

 $% ! & &!$!&&$%  '$ &"$!!

")&$%&$%%!$&%&$&!&)&%%! /179

%  % %'""!$& + & !!)  $! &!  $! &

&!  
%$ !'  $"!$&-     

/  3$ !($  & 8%!'9 1*"     &  &! 

!%$(&!  %+%&% &! "$!(  !$&!   !$ & %! 

%'""!$&/ % %+%&% %!'   *%&  & !  "+%- !!-

%!-! !- & ($% &!!&$ (!" )&

 + &!$%% 2 !$%&& & (' $&%

  !$ $%"! %% & &!& "&&!& /4180





	





	





<AB/!$'%-!%
!)$+-$$$ -$ -!$+	%-$ 


!!%-
 ,+ %-
! 
 $&-	( &$- )- %%$%-

 !! -	





-=;<;0=;?=6'#'$#'-. 

&! 
!$&!$+-+=;<;7/

<AC/$&/-
6=;;A7""/A<@5A>?/ 

<B;/$:%&!%.
6=;<;7/
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 125

  
   
 
  

 
"

 

& 
&
$$
(

 
$ 
 
 

 
 181 % 


"
'

 !
"



 








$






!


 
 )$


&

! 
$&
& 



!
&
&
 

!







 	! 
 
 
$"




  

    



%





& 
)!!



*((&
"&&
 +

 #

!



!


! 
 



 $





*$"
 

$!+

 
!



 !
$&&




#& ")
$&)
!

 
$%


# 



$*((&





 
$ 




+

 
    "
 #  
" 

   
 
 $ 

$&     


&"
!

  (


	


!



 
$

  
!

 " *
 
 $ 
 $


 + 
     

  




-/-(  !

 
$*.,-,+( 
126 I APPENDIX A 

,(-'

  
    (

' 
      

%#!(%%

  "#       !

#     
   


	#'

         

%   #  #(    # #

      #'   %   

! !#'

    0./.  
# 	  
& )

   
       


!#

        
  %  #%

  #   
  !  


 '*182


   ! 

#% #    !



##"


'     #    

!      !

!
#

! ##

  ," -' 
     

   

#!  # 

'



 ($

      
  $  

     '    	 %  

"#    # !   

!+ !+%

! '
# !

       # '

	
&



/10'',0./.-'
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 127

  %!$ &$ +!!"$&!  !!$ &! 

  &$ +!!$ & !$ ,&! %%'%&President’s 

Office of Science and Technology Policy-
-- &

 &$ +"&&! %!$ !&& %($ 

!$ ,&! %- +$+ ! ! &$'&!$&%+ +

 %)%   &"$!%%

  &$1 +%%'%%'%! & (%! %)& $

"$& &%  %-!"&&! !$'  - 

)$ %%!' ' !$' $'  &%

 	!$& &($"$% &&! $! %

$%"! %!$($ & !$&! %+%&%400--

-5

 	! "!)$ &$&%! 1 !+. !

&#'( &!&&! '$&+!' 

 &$ +"&&! )!$ $!'"%$  /


 +"$!$%$!%%&$!($  &"$!'% &&

 !$%   %'""!$&% &   "&&!  %! 1 0


 + ! &% !$&% !'$ &$!' &  % ! & 
-

) !&$% ( $  $%!'$  & !$ !' &+

(!" & "$!$% &$!'  % && ( !& %&!$+

!'% !  &  0 '$$ &+- !%& ! &% &(&% $

!'$$   "  &+ ! !   !&$-   &! "%  

$'  %0 % !$&% )!'  & $!   

!!$ &!  !  %  & & $ (- &$!'  %

)!$  &!&$ !$ !%+ &! ($ *%&  "&%0

!!$ &!  )!' " $+ %"! %!$ %   &+-

' $%& -   & & % ! %!  $% " & 

"&&! %&$&%! &$!' 0 )"&&!   

%$  & )&  & 
 %!' (!"  2$!"3

&& &%*%& "&&! %  %$("&% 

"%$!%%$+1%"! %!$"$!$%0 183






	









'$$ &+- & !%$(&! %- $! 1% !%- %! 1%'""!$&

&!!%-   %+ &%% %%%% &% + & 
   "$&'$+ + &

 ! &$'&! %$"$$+ !'%! & &&&%

$&$&   &$ &! "$%"&(0



7:90&!'%!' !  ($!  &'&+4867650
128 I APPENDIX A 

$$  +' $& &% %&"$!%%' $%&  

&& "$% & $$$% &! %"+    !"&- %'%&   !$&! 

%+%&)&!  -%'%& && &$&(!$%"$(!" &

""$!)$#'$/

$%&% & & "&+ &(!" )!$&!

(!"  & & !$&! %+%&%/

 	%%%% &"$!%%-)$!$!'% !"$ %(-%'$%

$!& + "!& &+- $! &'&  '  !'& &! 

"!&%! &'&&  %/

% &  !'% !$& &! ($   ' & & 	   

%%%% &!$&%-&$*%&%%  &$%&%+ &%%%%%% &

 %) !&&/

$ % !&  %+%&& !$& &! #' &+   $! , &

' $& &%! & !&$ !$&! $%!'$% 

& $  ! "!& & $%"! % !"&! %. &% !$& '%&  ! 

! %%& &+ $!%%  )0$  ! %! 0  !$ ,&! %  

%')+%&!"$!(("+ !$$%%%%% & &!

 %'$$%"! %%$$! ,/



$!'%!$ ,&! % & &&&%$)!$ &!$%%&

 $  !$ "$!(  !$&!  &! %'""!$& &   $%

  &/%'$$ &+' $! $%&$'&'$ &(&+

 & &!"$!(&%"&+&!%'""!$&&& $%"! %

!$&%/184  &   "&&!  	 &$ + % !$ %

$!"$&"&! !$ % % & '$!'%$%

!$"$!( &- ' %!$( &&!& %! !&$

 % ! $  )&  &$ &!  &$&%/185 
   !&$

 ('  % ! & ' !$&% &! "$!( & $(  ! &$

 !$&! &!& $%  & %! 0 /



486/ &&&%! %$$!$-	



/

487/&!'%!' !  ($!  &
'&+153432/
CLIMATE INFORMATION SYSTEM NEEDS I 129






 


 

 

	    
 


 	 

 

  

  

  



	 
	 
 
 

 

  	
	

	







	

	


	



	





	



130 I APPENDIX B 

		


 # 
  ! "  &   "

! 

$
$ (




  ** ++ $      

"$ 
 !$!

$'  **++
  
)

     $  $    (186

 )/ )&


	  $&

$   ,  -&   


 
   
& %&   &  "

 
       
$

 !
(


		

	
				


	
	



/21((,0..2-(
SPECIAL TOPICS I 131

$ % ! $  # + $  ( #  # % #$

%.  %  $#  &0$ 45 1#0$ %

 $2$%&* &%%-

...#%#%$ %#&%$%$,%#$%! %%

%% % #% $*$%  & # $$ %!! ! %$ # %#$ $%%

#$&%#&!%$.  %#%$%#$$! $*%

 # $$ % (% %$ #&!% $  %# %

1$&#!#$$2 4&)!% $ # !%$5, *% %   

$& '%$ $  % (  (.  # '#, %# $ 

 !#%'*%%#$# %!%$%%%$$ %

(%1)%#2%3 #)!, %!%$ %% &

)!% %!#%&#$#$*87?4;?5 # # '#

%)%%&#*.187

! $$%* #'!#%#% &# %!!! %'%,

$& %% % % $*$% &# $  "&%%' $% %   (

$%%*#,$&$%#%&#/9,(#,$$#*
% 

%.%! %%($#!#$%$%%%#% #$,%,%$%%

  % $*$%. # #& %# !   # 4!# #$$ # 

# %  % & ! %%5, % #% ! %% (  $ $ (#

*'$$4%#$ 5,&$%% #&!%*# % %%.

 &#'%&#  % ( $ '#$* !# ! #%  %  % $*$%0$

#$! $%% $!#%&#% $.188

!% $&$&%#$% $$%(  .
,%$% &

! % % $*$%  "&%%'* #% $%%* #.  #

)!, *$$    # % $&$%$ $&  %!! ! % '%

 &% %(' % &$ *#$   !#!%% % #!   %

 &##*$,!!# )%*%#%*/*#%#$% !#  )%#

% '#%*, #%#+ * # $  %!#%&# 

!#!%%   %$$$$ #%$ %# *#$.189# %&$ % 

 % $ % (%# %  &##*$  &# #!% %

'% #&%&#.	%$ %#(%# #! #/

$#&%&#( &#$%% %#!%#$%$%!#%&#

!#!%%  $#'&#% &##*$%#% '%.



8=<.#6$% $-
	
		

		497875.

8==.
% ፱<5.

8=>.*%.,1#&!%#$#$ (&&% %% %

 &##*$'%,2	:;948>>:5.
132 I APPENDIX B 


		
	



	


			
	

		
	



# "!#"!!#!" "!"! " 

 $ !"'*"2411+' # ""#  '!"

"   $ !   " !( " %#  "'  ! 

 $ !!""!!*"  !" $ !"'("

 
  !"#' # "" ,  !   !"

!!#! "" " "( %! !'!""'! !#  !

"!!  &""   # !!( ! &" " 

 "'+  #  !# ! ' "  " 32!" "# '(

  !!  % #"#  !!! * !  "  + 

!#  " ! &"(   "( #!  " !"$ 

"%% !"*-190

"  #" !!#  !!!! " !  " "

"! !!""*# +4#!" "!""

!" #"  "" "  #"!(  $ ' " !%

!" #"   "!!!"%" "  # ""'

#"# "  #!!!!!"!!"$"'"

""  *191  " "" "  # $ $ '! " " " #

# $ !#!"! " ""  # !"" " " #  

% !"+! "  ! !* ! #  " "



271* 0!"!)
	

.3121/*

272*
 # 3*5*46)
'('#(  (

	" 
$ " (, !!)!
" %  

"
# "'(- # '3122*
SPECIAL TOPICS I 133


	
		
 
	







		






	




 
	  
 	 
 

 
 




    

 

 		 

	  



   
  ! 	
 




! 	  

 

   

!







	







	










  


  
 
 

 
  
 

	
	  
 
 
	 
  
 
 


  "#  
	 
  
 	
 	








	





 
 


  
 
 

 

 
  




 

 
 
  
  
 





	

		






 
 
 	 


    
	
 
 
134 I APPENDIX B 

"%###.'&"+"$#$"%$####&

$ )$  #%##%+  $" #  & $$ $ " #

"%$# "!%" $ & " $ $$) "%# $

'&$""%$"%$%".

$)+#"%#$"$%$ " "$ $##

$ "##$  
8  $" /& "%# ##  $

$# "+)')"#')$/&"$&

#$ #  ## "%$# "%" '" $# 4%"/:5.

$# " ) $#  $ %" " #  #  ( $

)  " #%/79=  %# $ " "  " 
8

). $ #$"$ '$  %$  %# 4"* $ 7.65 $ $ *"

' ) ) " $# # " 7+666 )"#. # ""&"#$)

 "#$# $ $"$ $$ $ #+ % "" $ %""$)

 "$+% "##$")$%"#4%"/;5.

& %" $) $ " "$# $ "% ### $

$$$+&$/$"#!%#

"%# ## $ $ $# " $)+  %"  $

$"&$ $#& " #.# $#+"""$#

"+&$$'"###-75"$

$ $!%# $$ # $ "# $ %$  $ #"

"$"$$# $%#"#$"$0#)

# "$ $#$ $$#"#"%###,+

85"("&$!%#'$"&
8"$

$# ".4%"#/:/;5192



7?8.%#+/# "$$"+$%$$+"""#$+

)##-1&"$#-	""&"#$%$"

(###+2		

	
	

		76<+.<4866?5-

7=6:37=6?.%# "$
%")8>+866?.
SPECIAL TOPICS I 135


!

	



 #


"








    
!      
  


$    
!   
   


"
 
  
 "
 
 $   $


$ !
$ 
 
  & 
    #


	#'		
		
	
	193
'
	


		 
 
	 	 &194  -+,+$  	 !

 
#    
  #    
   



,0.&		
		
	
	
					
(#
	#$-++0)&

,0/&
*
%
	
		

		(-+,+)&
136 I APPENDIX B 

"## $ #### $ #$$  #"%# #$ "#"  $ $

$$#* .$ +  "$ $"$) % %# "

"
#"
"&""$#,/195

 " %#  $# " "$# # $$ ' #$  $

 " # "  $# " #" $)  "$

" #$- "$&* #* #% # #$"$# " "# $ 

%")-)" " %-#* " $$) #, #

" "$##% $$ $ $$ "%$#!%# "

 "  $# # $ )$ "& #$ #$%), #

" "$#  $$  #$ "#" "" '%   ##")

 "%"#" $ ) #%-#  ( "$# " %-#  )$ 

", " ( * $ &"$ %$$) 

."# $$ '$$ (%$&   $ "#$* $

 " "$$$#*#%# $))*

#$#  " #$"$) " " "#"  $ $($ 

$" "# # $ $  $ #%"  "$

" ",/196  $ $" #  #% "#" ""  $

$ $$# # $ "$ '"  &$ "  $%" 

#!%#$"$)$ "$$"),

"#  #$ $$ " %$" " $&$)*

$ #%-# ( "$#  %-#  )$, " ( * "

#&")"###$"$ " #$) $$$ $)

'$"$""#,&$#$$#

 $ $ #)#$* $$ $# $) $  " ## #

$ $$"#$% "$#!%#$" "$#

 $ '", 	* "$# )  $-#$$ $  "& $" 

$#%$&) $"""$$-#$$,



386,&"$%$$)*





	

















-32-825

0 $"42321,

387,&"$%$$)042321,
SPECIAL TOPICS I 137


			

		
		
	

    

 
 


  "    
$  


   

% 	   
   


" 
"       


   
   
  ' &)(%

"




% 	        
 
 
"



 


#



$!$



"






   # "%  
      

"


"
138 I APPENDIX B 

   
 
    	







	



	
	
	



	

TERMS OF REFERENCE I 139


	

140 I TERMS OF REFERENCE 

2
TASK FORCE MEMBERSHIP I 143


	





NAME AFFILIATION 

Dr. William Howard Private Consultant 

Gen Larry Welch, US Air Force (Retired) Institute for Defense Analyses 


	

Dr. Ted Gold Private Consultant 

Dr. Sherri Goodman CNA 

GEN Paul Kern, USA (Retired) AM General 

Dr. Christine Youngblut Institute for Defense Analyses 




Mr. Mike Owens US Africa Command 





Mr. Brian Hughes OUSD(AT&L) 

Maj Michael Warner OUSD(AT&L) 



Dr. Kent Butts US Army War College 

Mr. Riley Duren Jet Propulsion Laboratory 

Dr. Diane Evans Jet Propulsion Laboratory 

CAPT Tim Gallaudet US Navy Task Force on Climate Change 

Mr. David Goldwyn State Department 

Mr. Larry Kobayashi Central Intelligence Agency 

Mr. Leslie Poe Central Intelligence Agency 

Mr. R.C. Porter Defense Intelligence Agency 

LtCol Paul Schimpf, USMC OUSD(P) 

Ms. Courtney St. John US Navy Task Force on Climate Change 
144 I TASK FORCE MEMBERSHIP 

Staff 

Ms. Becky Bortnick Afergan Strategic Analysis, Inc. 

Ms. Kelly Frere Strategic Analysis, Inc. 

Ms. Teresa Kidwell Strategic Analysis, Inc. 

Mr. Ted Stump Strategic Analysis, Inc. 
PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE I 145


	



NAME TOPIC 


	
	

MG Richard Sherlock 

US Africa Command, Director, Strategy, Plans, and 

Programs 

Strategic Environment and Implications of Climate 

Change 

CDR Esther McClure 

OUSD(P) 

Climate Change and the Quadrennial Defense 

Review 

Dr. Ashley Moran 

Strauss Center, University of Texas, Austin 

DOD's (Minerva) Climate Change and African 

Political Stability Project 

CAPT Timothy Gallaudet 

Office of the Oceanographer of the Navy 

Navy's Climate Change Task Force 

Dr. Sherri Goodman, Dr. Ralph Espach and 

Mr. Peter MacKenzie 

CNA 

Regional Climate Security (China and Columbia) 

Mr. Larry Kobayashi 

Central Intelligence Agency 

Climate Change Center and Related Intel 

Community/Science Programs 

Dr. Christine Youngblut 

Institute for Defense Analyses 

Sudan Case Study 



	
	

Dr. Kent Butts 

National Security Issues, Branch Center for 

Strategic Leadership, US Army War College 

Climate Change Impacts on State Stability, 

Implications for Combatant Commands and 

Multiagency Operations 



	
	

Mr. Mike Casciaro 

US Africa Command Deputy Operations and 

Logistics Directorate (J4), Deputy Plans and Policy 

Directorate (J5) 

Mission, Organization, and Programs Overview 

Dr. Jerome Delli Priscoli 

USACE 

Water Security, Global Water Issues, and Climate 

Change 

Dr. Susan Clark-Sestak 

Institute for Defense Analyses 

Opportunities for Military Engagement on 

Environmental Issues 

Dr. Robert R. Sands 

Expeditionary Skills Training 

Air Force Culture and Language Center 

Air University 

Climate Change, Human Security and Transfrontier 

Conservation Areas: Lessons from the Field 
146 I PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE 

NAME TOPIC 

Mr. Riley Duren 

Chief Systems Engineer 

Earth Science & Technology Directorate 

Jet Propulsion Laboratory 

Global climate information systems: 

capabilities, gaps, and opportunities 




Mr. Artur Kolodziejski 

USAFRICOM 

Environmental Security Program 

AFRICOM Environmental Security Program 

Mr. Richard Cicone 

Mr. Thomas Parris 

Water, Climate, and National Security 

Ambassador Reno Harnish 

Director, Center for Environment and National 

Security 

Scripps Institution of Oceanography 

University of California at San Diego 

Center for Environment and National Security 

Mr. Elmer Roman 

Oversight Executive for Building Partnerships 

OUSD (AT&L)/DDR&E/Rapid Fielding Directorate 

Complex Systems/Joint Capabilities Technology 

Demonstrations 

Partnering Earth Observations for People Living 

Environmentally (PEOPLE) JCTD (Interagency 

group including NASA) 

Dr. Susan Clark-Sestak 

Institute for Defense Analyses 

Presentation and Discussion 




Dr. Holmes Hummel 

Department of Energy 

Report on Clean Energy Ministerial 


	

Mr. Jeff Heath 

Naval Facilities Engineering Command 

Naval Facilities Engineering Command Capabilities

Dr. David Dean 

Office of the Under Secretary for Science, 

Department of Energy 

Energy and Measurement, Reporting, and Verifying

for Possible Climate Treaties 

Dr. Anthony Okon Nyong 

African Development Bank 

The Politics of Climate Change and Implications for

Africa’s Security 

Dr. Susan Clark-Sestak 

Institute for Defense Analyses 

FY11 Defense Environmental International 

Cooperation Program (DEIC)
PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE I 147

	
	


Dr. Sam Baldwin 

Department of Energy 

Energy and Climate Challenges: The Efficiency and

Renewable Energy Opportunity 

Col Shannon Beebe 

US Army 

Why Climate Change Will NEVER Matter to US 

National Security 

Ms. Cynthia Brady 

Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation, 

USAID 

Climate Change and Conflict: USAID's Perspective 

		
	


Dr. Kathleen D. White 

Global and Climate Change Institute for Water 

Resources 

US Army Corps of Engineers 

Climate Change and US National Security: Issues 

and Opportunities in Africa 

Dr. Jonathan Pershing 

Deputy Special Envoy for Climate Change 

US Department of State 

Outcome of Cancun Climate Negotiations 

Maj Mary Zajac 

National Guard Bureau J532, International Affairs 

National Guard and Environment Security 

Mr. James Turner 

Office of International Affairs and Senior Advisor to 

the NOAA Administrator 

NOAA's Work to Meet Climate Challenges 

Dr. Chester Koblinsky 

NOAA Climate Program Office 

NOAA Climate Service Transition 

The NOAA Climate Program 

Mr. Tim Lattimer 

 Central America & the Caribbean 

US Department of State 

Climate Change and Security in Central America 

and the Caribbean: Views from the Field 

Dr. Susan Clark-Sestak 

Institute for Defense Analyses 

FY11 Defense Environmental International 

Cooperation Program 




Colonel Noberto Cintron 

US Southern Command 

US Southern Command Perspective 

Mr. Rod Snider 

American Red Cross 

American Red Cross and Climate Change 

MG Bob Barnes 

Nature Conservancy 

The Nature Conservancy and Climate Change 



Dr. Kenneth Verosub University of California-Davis 
148 I PRESENTATIONS TO THE TASK FORCE 

 
GLOSSARY I 149



 

AFRICOM United States Africa Command 

AOR area of responsibility 

AR4 4th Assessment Report (of the IPCC) 

C carbon 

°C Celcius 

C4MIP Coupled Carbon-Climate Cycle Model Intercomparison Project 

CCAPS Climate Change and African Political Stability (program at Strauss Center funded 

by DOD's Minerva Initiative) 

CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites 

CH4 methane 

CIA Central Intelligence Agency 

Cm centimeter 

CMIP Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 

CMIP5 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 

CO2 carbon dioxide 

COE Center of Excellence for Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance (at 

US Pacific Command) 

CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment 

DEIC DOD Environmental International Cooperation Program 

DESDynI Deformation, Ecosystem Structure and Dynamics of Ice 

DOD Department of Defense 

DOS Department of State 

DSB Defense Science Board 

ECMWF European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 

ECV Essential Climate Variables 

EIW Environmental Indications and Warnings 

ENSEMBLES A common ensemble climate forecast system used to construct integrated 

scenarios of future climate change, including both non-intervention and stabilization 

scenarios 

ENSO El Niño Southern Oscillation 

FEWS NET Famine Early Warning System Network 
150 I GLOSSARY 

FI fossil intensive 

FO follow-on 

GCM Global Climate Models 

GDP Gross Domestic Product 

GEMS Global Environment Monitoring System 

GPCP Global Precipitation Climatology Project 

GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Change Experiment 

Gt gigation 

H2O water vapor 

ICESat-2 Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite-2 (This is the second-generation of the 

orbiting laser altimeter ICESat scheduled for launch in early 2016.) 

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

JASON-1 Oceanography mission to monitor global ocean circulation, study the ties between 

the oceans and atmosphere, improve global climate forecasts and predictions, and 

monitor events such as El Niño conditions and ocean eddies 

Km kilometer 

N2O nitrous oxide 

NARCCAP North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program 

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction 

NGO nongovernmental organization 

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 

NRC National Research Council 

NWP Numerical Weather Prediction 

O3 ozone 

OI optimum interpolation 

OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense 

OUSD(AT&L) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics 

OUSD(P) Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy 
GLOSSARY I 151

PRUDENCE Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate 

Change Risks and Effects 

RANET Radio and Internet for the communication of hydro-meteorological information for 

rural development 

RCM Regional Climate Models 

SMAP Soil Moisture Active Passive 

SOUTHCOM United States Southern Command 

SRES Special Report on Emissions Scenarios 

SSM/I special sensor microwave/imager 

SST sea surface temperature 

SWOT Surface Water and Ocean Topography 

TOPEX TOPEX/Poseidon satellite 

TRMM Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 

UNEP United Nations Environmental Program 

USACE US Army Corps of Engineers 

USAID United States Agency for International Development 

USGCRP United States Global Change Research Program 

USGEO US Group on Earth Observations 

USGS US Geological Survey 

WMO World Meteorological Organization