April 26, 2007 11 

### 1. BACKGROUND

General SIP Requirements

California’s 2007 State Implementation Plan s (SIPs) are a comb ination of State and local air quality planning documents that must show how California will meet federal the 8-hour ozone st andard statewide. The S an Joaquin Valley, South Coast Air Basin, Sacramento region, S an Diego, Ventura, and a number of air districts downwind of urban areas are nonattainment for the ozone standard. Ozone SIPs must be submitted to U.S. EPA by June 15, 2007.

This document is the State’s emission redu ction strategy for sources of pollution under State and federal authority (State Stra tegy), and, for every local region not meeting federal standards, a demonstration of how at tainment of the 8-hour ozone standard will be achieved.

In addition to ozone SIPs, the South C oast and San Joaquin Valley must prepare PM2.5 SIPs for submittal to U.S. EPA by April 5, 2008. For the South Coast Air Basin, the South Coast Air Quality M anagement District is developing a PM2.5 SIP in parallel with the ozone SIP. The San Joaqui n Valley PM2.5 SIP in on track to be submitted in 2008.

The 2007/2008 ozone and PM2.5 SIPs are another step in the air quality planning process that over the years has helped define new actions to improve California’s air quality. ARB has adopted a series of regulations over the past 10 years to implement measures in the 1994 ozone SIP, as well as additional new ARB measures identified in the 2003 SIP update. New mobile source regulations, reformulated gasoline, and mu ltiple consumer products regulations envisioned in these SIPs have been adopted and are being implemented today. And, while California has serious air qua lity challenges ahead, it is important to recognize the progress made as a result of California’s landmark air pollution control programs. With that experience and history of success, we need to continue to do more. ARB staff recogni zes the importance of the new State measures and are proposing a full slate of new measures for development and consideration by the Board.April 26, 2007 12 National Air Quality Standards

The U.S. EPA adopts standards for ambient (outdoor) air pollutants designed to protect public health. Ext ensive studies on the health effects of air pollution worldwide have confirmed the importance of conti nuing to reduce people’s exposure to air pollution. U.S. EPA is required to review its air quality standards every five years.

In July 1997, the federal government announced new national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for the pollutants oz one and particulate matter (PM). The new standards provide more protection from the harmful health effects of these pollutants. The ozone standard was revised to protect against longer pollutant exposure periods by requiring that ozone concentrations not exceed specified levels over an 8-hour period instead of a 1-hour period. A new particulate matter standard was added to protect against the smaller inhalable particles, less than two and a half microns in diameter (PM2 .5). Air quality standards have become more stringent over time as new studies have shown adverse health effects at lower levels. The standards below are the current benchmar k for federal SIP requirements. U.S. EPA is currently reviewing the adequacy of the current 8-hour standard. And in December 2006, U.S. EPA adopted a more stringent 24-hour PM2.5 standard of 35 micrograms per cubic meter. This will likely mean that several new areas will be required to prepare a plan to attain the newer standard. Initial State recommendations for nonattainment areas are due in late 2007, with final nonattainment areas det ermined by U.S. EPA in early 2010. Plans for the revised 24-hour standard will be due in 2013, with attainment dates to be determined after U.S. EPA issues transition guidance.

Ozone Standard PM 2.5 Standards

How much more stringent is the 8-hour ozone standard than the 1-hour ozone standard? The two maps on the following page illustrate a dramatic difference in exceedance days (number of days that vi olated the standard) for the 1-hour standard versus the 8-hour standard in the S outh Coast air basin in 2005. While many areas of California continue to be in violation of federal air quality standards, real air quality pr ogress has been made, as we will illustrate later. The clean air bar simply continues to be raised as we learn more about the health effects of air pollution.

0.08 parts per million for 8 hours , not to be exceeded, based on the fourth highest concentration averaged over three years. 65 micrograms per cubic meter for 24 hours , not to be exceeded, based on the 98 th percentile concentration averaged over three years, and 15 micrograms per cubic meter annual average (arithmetic mean) averaged over three years.April 26, 2007 13 Comparison of 1-Hr Ozone Standard and More Stringent 8-Hr Ozone Standard in the South Coast Air BasinApril 26, 2007 14 Health Effects of Ozone and PM2.5

Ozone

The formation and health impacts of ozone are very well studied. Ozone is a highly reactive gas that forms in the atmosphere through complex reactions between chemicals directly emitted from motor vehicles, industrial plants, consumer products and many other sources. It forms in gr eater quantities on hot, sunny, calm days making the summer season the key exposure period.

Considerable research over the pa st 35 years has investigated how people respond to inhaling ozone. These studi es have consistently shown that inhalation of ozone can lead to inflammati on and irritation of the tissues lining the human airways. This causes the muscle cells in the airways to spasm and contract, thus reducing t he amount of air that can be inhaled. Symptoms and responses to ozone exposure vary widel y, even when the amount inhaled and length of exposure is the same. Typi cal symptoms include cough, chest tightness, and increased asthma symptoms. Ozone in sufficient doses can also increase the permeability (“leakiness”) of lung cells, making them more susceptible to damage from envir onmental toxins and infection.

Medical studies of large populations have found that ozone exposure is associated with an increase in hospital admissions and emergency room visits, particularly for lung problems such as asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Several studies have also associated ozone exposure with increased premature mortality in el derly people with chronic diseases of the lungs and circulatory system.

People who exercise or wo rk outdoors are at greater ri sk of experiencing adverse health effects from ozone exposure because they inhale more ozone. Current evidence has linked the onset of asthma to exposure to elevated levels of ozone in exercising children. Children a nd adolescents are at increased risk because they are more likely to spend time out doors engaged in vigorous activities than adults and because they inhale more ozone per pound of body weight.

PM2.5

Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is also well studied. Particulate matter pollution is a complex mixtur e that consists of dry so lid fragments, solid cores with liquid coatings, and small droplets of liquid. PM ca n be directly emitted into the air in forms such as dust and soot. It can also be formed in the atmosphere from the reaction of various gases. Part iculate matter is less than 10 microns in diameter (a micron is one -millionth of a meter) and is called PM10. Even smaller particles, those 2.5 microns or less in di ameter, are called “fine particles” or PM2.5, and are the target of this SIP. PM2.5 is a component of PM10.April 26, 2007 15 Extensive research has shown that PM c an be inhaled into the deep portions of the lungs. Some inhaled particles are exhaled again, but others deposit in the lungs, which can lead to inflammation in both the lungs and the circulatory system. PM2.5 poses an increased health risk because it can penetrate deeper into the lungs and may also enter the bloodstream.

Population-based studies in hundreds of cities around the world have demonstrated a strong link between elevat ed particulate matter levels and premature death in people with pre-existing heart or lung disease. The two most important of these studies were performed in many cities in the United States, and have been ongoing for over 15 years. Both of these studies found a strong relationship between long-term PM exposure and premature death.

Scientists have observed higher rates of hospitalization, emergency room visits and doctor’s visits for respiratory illne sses or heart disease during times of high PM concentrations. During these periods of high PM levels, scientists also observed the worsening of both asthma symptoms and acute and chronic bronchitis, and reductions in vari ous measures of lung function.

The elderly and people with heart and/or lung di seases are particularly at risk of experiencing adverse effects from PM ex posure. Studies have also shown that children may be particularly vulnerable to PM effects. There is evidence from the 10-year Children’s Health Study funded by the ARB that in communities with high levels of PM children's lungs develop more slowly and that at maturity they tend to have lower lung capacity than children who grow up in communities with lower levels of PM. Just as with ozone, child ren and infants may also be more at risk of experiencing adverse effects from PM because they inhale more air per pound of body weight than do adults, they breat he faster, and have smaller body sizes. In addition, there is some evidence t hat children's immature immune systems may cause them to be more su sceptible to PM than adults.

Nonattainment Areas and Air Quality Trends

Geographic areas that exceed a feder al air quality standard are called nonattainment areas. A comprehensive network of monitoring stations throughout California measures air qualit y and provides the data necessary to determine whether an area meets or exceeds federal ozone and PM2.5 air quality standards. 1

Compliance with the federal ozone and PM 2.5 standards is based on pollutant concentrations, measured at a comprehens ive network of monitoring stations throughout California, averaged over three years. These three-year averages are called design values . Air quality monitoring in the years 2001 through 2003

1 More about California’s air quality monitori ng network can be found on ARB’s website at: http://www.arb.ca.gov/aaqm/aaqm.htmApril 26, 2007 16 was used by U.S. EPA to designate 15 areas in California as nonattainment for the federal 8-hour ozone standard. The San Joaquin Valley and South Coast Air Basin are also nonattainment for PM2.5.

Federal 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Areas in California

Sacramento Metro Area

San Francisco

Bay Area

San Joaquin Valley*

Antelope Valley and Western Mojave Desert

Imperial
San Diego South Coast Air Basin* Ventura Coachella Valley Eastern Kern Western Nevada

Central Mountain Counties

Southern Mountain Counties Sutter Buttes Butte County

* Also PM2.5 Nonattainment

A specific year’s design value is averaged over three years. For example, the design value for the year 2001 reflects the averages for the years 1999, 2000, and 2001. Ozone design values are an average of the fourth highest concentrations for each of the last thr ee years. Design values for the PM2.5 annual average reflect annual average (arithmetic mean) concentrations averaged over the last three years. T he PM2.5 24-hour design values reflect the 98 th percentile concentrations averaged over the last three years.

For the ozone standard, areas are classi fied based on the severity of the problem. In descending order in terms of magnitude of the problem, the classifications are extreme

, severe , serious

, moderate , and marginal . The Clean Air Act provides more time to meet the standard based on the severity of the problem. Based on its classification an ar ea is given an attainment deadline. A special designation, called basic , refers to nonattainment areas governed under a separate set of requirement s in the Clean Air Act. Fo r PM2.5, U.S. EPA simply designated the South Coast and San J oaquin Valley as nonattainment withoutApril 26, 2007 17 application of the classification scheme used for PM10. This results in an attainment deadline of 2015.

Ozone Nonattainment Area Nonattainment Designation (Current / Anticipated) Attainment Year (Current / Anticipated) South Coast Air Basin Severe / Extreme 2021 / 2024 San Joaquin Valley Serious / Extreme 2013 / 2024 Coachella Valley Serious / Severe 2013 / 2019 Sacramento Region Serious / Severe 2013 / 2019 Antelope Valley and Western Mojave Desert Moderate / Severe 2010 / 2019 or 2021

Ventura County Moderate / Serious 2010 / 2013 or 2019 Imperial County Marginal 2007 San Francisco Bay Area Marginal 2007

The above table lists the marginal through extreme nonattainment areas for the federal 8- hour ozone standard, while the table to the right lists the areas with the special basic ozone nonattainment designation. The Clean Air Act allows changing of nonattainment designations and the extension of the attainment deadline if the State believes a change is needed after analyzing the nature of the ozone problem and c hallenges to meet the standard. So the above table includes t he current attainment designations, as well as designation changes that may be needed based on regional analyses.

For this set of SIPs, U.S. EPA has provided guidance on how to interpret the attainment deadline as it relates to attainment demonstrations. The question arises because the deadlines are mid-y ear. The ozone attainment deadline is June 15 and the PM2.5 deadline is April 5 of the attainment year. To address the issue, U.S. EPA guidance calls for the analysis of attainment to be done for the year prior to the actual attainment year . So in this document we will be showing emission reduction targets and emissions fo r the year prior to the attainment year. For example, if the attainment year is 2024, we will be showing emission reduction targets and emissi ons for the year 2023.

Ozone Trends

A snapshot of four ozone nonattainm ent areas on the next page shows ozone levels (design values) relative to t he federal standard and number of days over the standard since 1990. The ozone leve ls chart gives a sense of recent progress toward meeting the standard as well as how far we still have to go. The San Joaquin Valley and the South Coas t have the most days exceeding the Basic Ozone Nonattainment Areas Attainment Year 2009-2014 Butte County Central Mountain Counties Eastern Kern County San Diego County Southern Mountain Counties Sutter Buttes Western Nevada CountyApril 26, 2007 18 standard and the South Coast has the highest design values. In general, ozone trends show the greatest improvemen t in coastal areas like San Diego and Ventura.

Ozone Levels for 4 Nonattainment Areas

0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.20

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Ozone Levels (Design Value)(parts per million)

8-Hour Standard V ENTUR A

SACRAMENTO SOUTH COAST

SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY

Days Over Standard: 4 Nonattainment Areas

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004Number of Days

V ENTURA

SACRAMENTO SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY SOUTH COAST

South Coast’s ozone concentrations have been cut by about a third since 1990, but the region’s design value is still 50 per cent over the level of the standard and progress has slowed in recent years. Fifteen years ago, the highest values were widespread throughout the basin. Now, the number of communities within the basin experiencing the highest values is su bstantially smaller. The maps below show this progression of air quality progress.April 26, 2007 19 Ozone Air Quality Comparison – South Coast 1995 to 2005April 26, 2007 20 PM2.5 Trends

Both the South Coast and San Joaquin Va lley are showing good progress toward PM2.5 attainment. As of 2005, both regions are meet ing the 24-hour standard. In addition, annual average PM2.5 design values have declined by 25 percent since 2001. In terms of the remaining ch allenge, the South Coast levels are still about 50 percent above the standard, and the San Joaquin Valley levels are about 25 percent above the standard.



### 24-hr Average PM2.5 Levels

South Coast

40 55 70 85 100 115Design Values (ug/m3)

2001 2005 2001 2005 Federal
Standard San Joaquin Valley



### Annual Average PM2.5 Levels

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35Design Values (ug/m3)

2001 2005 2001 2005 Federal
Standard San Joaquin Valley South Coast

Development of State Strategy

In developing our proposed statewide em ission reduction strategy, ARB staff worked closely with air districts on atta inment demonstrations for ozone for each area and on a PM2.5 attainment demonstr ation for the South Coast

. In that process, emissions inventories are dev eloped and air quality models are used to establish a region’s “carrying capacity” and to calculate the additional emission reductions needed for attainment.

The emission reduction targets serve th ree purposes. First, they provide an indication of how far the existing control program will take each region towardApril 26, 2007 21 attainment and if additional reductions fr om new measures are needed. Second, they indicate how much time a region may need to reach the standards and if a classification change to a later attainment date is likely needed. And third, they provide a benchmark for designing new emission reduction measures.

The magnitude of the attain ment challenges in the S outh Coast and San Joaquin Valley, as shown in the next chapter, ar e the drivers for ARB staff’s proposed statewide strategy. The new SIP measures are also needed for the Sacramento region, the Coachella Vall ey, and the Antelope Valley and Western Mojave Desert nonattainment area. California’s other ozone nonattainment areas, including San Diego and Ventura, are pr ojected to attain by their assigned deadline based on the benefits of pr eviously adopted SIP measures.

Given the severity of the ozone problems in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley, both regions have indicated in thei r draft air quality plans that they will be requesting a reclassification to extreme with attainment deadlines of 2024. The 2015 PM2.5 deadline and the South Coas t PM2.5 carrying capacity framed staff’s analysis of new near-term measures. The other key driver for developing new SIP strategies is to reach ozone attainment in both regions as quickly as possible.

Chapter 2 will summarize the process of determining the emission reduction targets and show those targets for the S outh Coast and San Joaquin Valley. The process consists of developing an emissions inventory and performing data analyses and air quality modeling based on that inventory to establish the emissions limits that ensure air quality standards are met.

Air Pollution Transport

Air pollution transport, by definition is quite simple – air movements carry pollutants from one area to anot her. In reality, air po llution transport is a very complex phenomenon. It is three-dimensional and can o ccur at ground level or aloft in upper air levels. With modeling for the State being split into two modeling domains – one for Northern and Centra l California and one for Southern California – transport relationships bet ween air districts within these large domains are implicitly capt ured within the models. This is the mechanism ARB uses in its oversight role to ensure transport impacts on downwind areas are addressed for purposes of both State and f ederal air quality standards. In terms of attainment demonstrations, inputs to the modeling for a downwind area include forecasted emission reductions in upwi nd areas. This way the attainment demonstration takes into account t he shared responsibility for reducing emissions in regions where air polluti on transport can at times be significant.April 26, 2007 22 Other Programs

In addition to SIPs, ARB has multiple plans and programs to reduce air pollution throughout California. Emission reducti on strategies from many of these programs are taken into account in the ozone and PM2.5 SIPs.

ARB Goods Movement Plan

The Emission Reduction Plan for Ports and Goods Movement in California, approved by ARB in April 2006, is one of t he main contributors of new measures necessary to meet federal air quality st andards. Most goods that move within and through California do so by truck. Ships are the largest source of SOx emissions in the State. Heavy-duty tru cks are the largest statewide source of NOx emissions. These air pollution realit ies make it impossible to tackle the PM2.5 challenge without addressing goods movement emissions. Likewise, emission reduction targets for ozone will not be met without reducing emissions related to goods movement.

The strategies included in the goods mo vement emission reduction plan target ships and trucks, as well as the other three main sources of goods movement emissions: harbor craft, cargo handling equipment, and locomotives. By 2020, these strategies will cut statewide goods movement emissions of NOx by 63 percent, SOx emissions by 78 percent, and will also reduce the statewide health risk from goods movement-related di esel particulate matter 85 percent.

Work on many of the strategies in t he goods movement emission reduction plan is underway and serves as the starting poi nt for near-term actions to meet the emission reduction targets for the SIPs. These strategies will provide essential new emission reductions needed for regional attainment, while they reduce the air pollution-related health risk for thos e who live near our ports, railyards, distribution centers, and other goods movement facilities.

ARB Diesel Risk Reduction Plan

An important source of dire ctly emitted PM2.5 is diesel exhaust. The particulate matter from diesel-fueled engines (diesel PM) has been singled out as a particularly harmful pollutant and identified as a toxic air contaminant by the Air Resources Board in 1998. Nearly 70 perc ent of the known cancer risk caused by air toxics is attributed to diesel PM . In 2000, ARB adopted a plan to reduce diesel PM emissions 85 percent by 2020, and has since adopted a number of regulatory measures to reduce diesel PM emissions statewide. Additional measures are under development. Diesel PM control measures in the plan are reducing both direct diesel PM and NOx emissions through a combination of engine retrofits and replacements. Upcomi ng mobile source fleet measures to reduce diesel PM and NOx emissions are a critical part of t he new SIP strategy as well the Diesel Risk Reduction Plan.April 26, 2007 23 Environmental Justice

The SIPs consist of strategies designed to bring a region’s air quality into compliance with federal standards. SIPs must be designed to ensure air quality standards throughout the ent ire region, so achiev ing air quality standards provides public health benefits to every community. This makes SIP implementation important to meeting ARB’s communi ty health and environmental justice goals. As part of our environmental justice progr am, ARB has initiated air quality studies in several communities and continues to focus resources on mobile source enforcement in environm ental justice communities. ARB’s Air Quality and Land Use Handbook, approved by ARB in May 2005, provides guidance to help improve local land use decisions that can negatively impact public health at the community level.

ARB’s SIP strategies have a significant nexus to community health due to the emphasis on cleaning up the legacy fleets of diesel engines. Much of the large equipment and vehicles that help constr uct our buildings and highways and move our goods are not well controlled and have very long lives. Adopting rules to clean up these fleets will have an imm ediate and significant effect on the communities where these sources are concentrated.

Regional Haze

The same particulate air pollutants that affect public health also extinguish and scatter light, thereby obscuring visibility. The federal Clean Air Act set the farreaching goal of achieving natural visibility conditions by 2064 in the nation’s most treasured parks and wilderness areas. Of the 156 designated areas, 29 are in California, managed by the National Park Service and the U.S. Forest Service. Therefore California is working in conc ert with fourteen other western states to reduce controllable emissions of particulate s so that regional haze is reduced in the western region of the country. In 1999, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency published rules to guide the preparation of Regional Haze State Implementation Plans to reduce regional haze.

ARB is currently preparing the first regi onal haze plan for the entire State, for transmittal to EPA by the December 17, 2007 deadline. General trends in California since the 1990s show that emi ssion controls are improving visibility in our parks and wilderness areas . The regional haze plan will show how these controls constitute reasonable progress alo ng the path to natural visibility. In 2012, ARB will conduct a mid-course review of measured visibility changes and analyze how emission reductions implem ented to achieve the 8-hour ozone and the PM2.5 standards will move the State further along the pat h to natural visibility in the future.April 26, 2007 24 Climate Change

ARB’s implementation of the Global Warmi ng Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32) is a major new effort just underway. These activities, in cluding future rulemaking, will occur on a parallel but separate track as we proceed with implementation of our SIP strategies. The statutory requirements and timelines are different, so it is not appropriate to include potent ial co-benefits of greenhouse gas strategies in SIP documents at this point. However, as greenhouse gas reduction measures are developed and adopted, ARB staff will do the necessary technical work to determine the impact on ozone and PM2.5 prec ursor pollutants.April 26, 2007 25 

### 2. TECHNICAL FOUNDATION

Emissions Inventory Overview

Developing attainment strategies requi res an understanding of the sources of pollution, the quantities em itted, their geographical distribution, and how air pollution controls and growth will impact future emission levels. There are multiple types of emission inventorie s used in air quality programs including annual averages, seasonal, and day-specific m odeling inventories. SIPs rely on region specific inventories that may diffe r from the statewide picture. In the regulatory development proc ess emission inventories are typically refined since inventory data is a key input for cost -effectiveness evaluations. This is an important inventory improv ement mechanism, and ARB staff incorporates these updates into the statewide inventory.

The emissions inventory serves three pr incipal roles in the SIP process:

• It provides a primary input to t he modeling necessary to determine the emission reductions needed for attainment;

• It supplies comprehensive emissions information for the development of emission reduction strategies;

• And after the SIP is approved, it is used to track progre ss of the emission reduction commitments outlined in the plan.

California is a diverse State with many sources of air pollution. ARB, in cooperation with local air districts, mainta ins a statewide emissions inventory. The inventory is constructed based on four major emission categories:

• Stationary Sources -- generally in dustrial facilities, which can be identified by a name and location.

• Areawide Sources -- either sma ll individual sources, such as residential fireplaces, or widely di stributed sources that cannot be tied to a single location, such as consumer products and dust from unpaved roads.

• On-Road Mobile Sources -- includes on-road cars, trucks, buses, etc.

• Off-Road Mobile Sources -- includes off-road vehicles such as boats, off-road recreational vehicles, airc raft, trains, ships, industrial and construction equipment, farm equipment, and other equipment.

The statewide emissions inventory develope d by ARB and the local air districts includes all the main sources of emissions – all of the many on-road and off-road mobile sources and all the various stat ionary and areawide sources. Estimating the amount of emissions statewide and in each region is done by summing the emissions from each source. The statewide inventor y for the 2007 SIP development uses ARB’s November 2006 on-road motor vehicle model (EMFAC) and ARB’s off-road mobile source model . Stationary source emissions areApril 26, 2007 26 provided by local air districts. The regional SIP inventories are discussed in Chapter 5, Regional SIP Summaries.

Precursor Pollutants

Air pollutants that react to form ozone and PM2.5 in the air are called precursor pollutants. For ozone, the main precur sor pollutants are nitrogen oxides (NOx) and reactive organic gases (ROG). There ar e four main precursors of PM2.5: NOx, ROG, sulfur oxides (SOx) and ammoni a (NH3). PM2.5 can also be directly emitted into the atmosphere (direct PM2.5) in various forms that include smoke from fires, dust from paved and unpaved roads, and particle emissions from the burning of fossil fuels.

PM2.5 pollution is a complex mixture and air quality modeling is used to assess the relative effectiveness of reducing each precursor pollutant as well as directly emitted PM2.5. Current data analysis and air quality modeling indicates that two of the four precursors , NOx and SOx, are signifi cant in reducing PM2.5 concentrations in the South Coast, and that the PM2.5 emission control strategy would be served best by focusing on reduc ing emissions of t hese two precursor pollutants. There is also a small PM2.5 benefit from ROG emission reductions, but benefits from ammonia emission reducti ons were found to be insignificant. Reducing direct PM2.5 is also an effective strategy according to recent modeling.

NOx . Nitrogen oxide emissions are produc ed by the combustion of fuels in engines, furnaces, or fires. Today mob ile sources make up about 85 percent of the total statewide NOx emissions. Th is percentage decreases over time as motor vehicle fleets become cleaner. Emissions from less clean sources like locomotives, ships, and aircraft continue to grow. Stationary sources of NOx include combustion processes in indus tries such as manufacturing, food processing, electric utilities, and petroleum refining. Areawide sources of NOx, which include waste burning and residential fuel combusti on, contribute a smaller portion of total NOx emissions. Air qualit y science indicates that reductions of NOx are more beneficial than reductions of other pollutants to help meet both ozone and PM2.5 standards, and t herefore NOx is a majo r focus of the State Strategy.

ROG . Reactive organic gases result primar ily from incomplete fuel combustion and the evaporation of chemical solvents an d fuels. Stationary sources of ROG include processes that use solvents such as dry cleaning, degreasing, and coating operations. Today mobile s ources are the largest ROG emissions category. However, other ROG categories become relatively more important over time. Areawide ROG sources which grow directly with population begin to dominate in the future so that by 2020 c onsumer products is the largest source category.April 26, 2007 27 SOx . Sulfur oxide emissions are dominat ed by the mobile source category of ships and commercial boats. Evaporative losses from petroleum refining (a stationary source) are another significant source of SOx. The other sources that make up 5 percent or more of the SOx inventory ar e locomotives and mining and cement manufacturing.

Direct PM2.5 . Directly emitted PM2.5 comes main ly in the form of smoke, soot, and dust particles. Major sources in clude managed burning and agricultural burning; dust generated by vehicles traveling on paved and unpaved roads, residential fireplaces, cooking and fuel co mbustion; and particle emissions from diesel-fueled engines on trucks, ships, and construction equipment. While soot from diesel engines is not a major porti on of the entire dire ct PM2.5 emissions inventory, it is a major health concern, as it is a toxic air contaminant that can cause premature death.

Forecasting Future Emissions

Estimates of projected future emissi ons depend on two independent variables: growth and control. Different methods ar e used to estimate t he future growth of emission sources based on their type. And future emission controls are incorporated into the projected emi ssions for each source category based on when the controls are implemented, how much the controls reduce emissions, and how many units (vehicles, consum er products, etc.) are affected.

The charts on the next page show the change in total projected statewide emissions for NOx, ROG, and SOx from 2006 to 2023 and the relative emissions change in each of these emission source categories. They reflect projected growth in each category combined with the benefits of the existing control program (those emission controls adopted prior to 2007). For example, SOx emissions as a category continue to grow due to ship emission increases. This makes ship SOx emissions a high priority for control in the new SIP strategy. NOx and ROG emissions are decreasing as a result of existi ng control programs despite substantial growth in population, travel, and the economy.

ARB uses two computer models to simu late and forecast emissions for on- and off-road sources. For cars , sport utility vehicles, minivans, and trucks, ARB used EMFAC2007. For off-road vehicles and equipment, ARB used OFFROAD2007. Both models were released for public us e in November 2006 after a multi-year development process. As required by federal guidance, EM FAC2007 uses the latest fleet information for vehicles age and population. The data is developed from the California Departm ent of Motor Vehicle registration data through 2005. For SIP purposes, as required by State law, vehicle activity is based on local transportation agency projections, or Calif ornia Department of Transportation data, if local data are not available.April 26, 2007 28 NOx Emission Forecast 2006-2023

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

2006 2014 2023Statewide tons per day
On-Road

Off-Road

Stationary

Areawide ROG Emission Forecast 2006-2023

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000

2006 2014 2023Statewide tons per day

On-Road

Off-Road Stationary

Areawide

Note: “Off-Road” includes trains, planes, and ships, as well as all other off-road vehicles and equipment.

SOx Emission Forecast 2006-2023

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

2006 2014 2023Statewide tons per day

Ships Stationary

All Other

Top Emission Sources

While the top emission categories are mobile sources in all California’s nonattainment areas, there is variability in the relative contribution of different sources by region. This makes the over all statewide emission reduction strategy more challenging and will affect the priorities of local control plans. For example, controlling the emissions from ocean- going vessels will have a tremendous impact on SOx emissions in the South Coas t and therefore is essential to that region’s PM2.5 control plan. Reduc ing SOx from ships has much less consequence in the San Joaquin Valley, so increased NOx reductions from combustion sources will become even more important for t he Valley’s PM2.5 control strategy. The tables on t he next two pages show the top emission sources of both NOx and ROG in the South Coast and the San Joaquin Valley.April 26, 2007 29 Here are some things we have learned by analyzing the emissions inventory for these two areas:

• South Coast NOx emissions are signi ficantly impacted by goods movement, with the ships, trains, trucks, and off-road equipm ent that move goods contributing about 30 percent of all South Coast NOx emissions. Aircraft NOx emissions are also increasing.

• The impact of goods movement in the San Joaquin Valley is felt mostly by the emissions contribution of heavy-duty trucks, which are projected to remain the largest NOx emitter through 2023.

• Emissions of NOx from manufacturing and industrial sources in the San Joaquin Valley become increas ingly significant as em issions from mobile sources decline in the future.

• The large population in the South Coast is the ma in reason why consumer product emissions are projected to become the number one ROG emissions source by 2014.

• San Joaquin Valley ROG emissions are significantly impacted by agricultural sources such as livestock waste.

• The existing emission control program will cut heavy-duty truck NOx emissions about 70 percent in the San Joaquin Valley and South Coast by 2023, but they need to be cut even more by new strategies to attain ozone and PM2.5 standards.

• Mobile sources under federal and inte rnational jurisdiction (like ships, locomotives, and aircraft) contribute an in creasingly greater proportion of total emissions, especially NOx, in future years as emission increases due to growth overwhelm the existing contro l program, while emissions of mobile sources under State jurisdiction de crease due to stringent controls.April 26, 2007 30 South Coast Air Basin – Top Sources of NOx Summer emissions, tons per day Source Category 2006 2014 2023

HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 259 140 73
PASSENGER VEHICLES 204 101 53 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONSTRUCTION AND MINING) 120 81 41 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL) 87 53 35
SHIPS AND COMMERCIAL BOATS 75 87 116
GASOLINE-FUELED COMMERCIAL TRUCKS 36 24 17
LOCOMOTIVES 31 23 28
RESIDENTIAL FUEL COMBUSTION 18 16 14 MANUFACTURING & INDUSTRIAL (BOILERS, ENGINES) 17 15 15 SERVICE AND COMMERCIAL (B OILERS, ENGINES) 16 12 11
RECREATIONAL BOATS 16 17 18
AIRCRAFT 16 22 29

TOTAL OF TOP CATEGORIES 896 589 450

TOTAL 971 650 505

TOP CATEGORIES PERCENT OF TOTAL 92% 91% 89%

San Joaquin Valley – Top Sources of NOx Summer emissions, tons per day Source Category 2006 2014 2023

HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 285 155 75 FARM EQUIPMENT (COMBINES AND TRACTORS) 60 37 17

PASSENGER VEHICLES 58 31 16 MANUFACTURING & INDUSTRIAL (BOILERS, ENGINES) 39 44 48 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONSTRUCTION AND MINING) 34 22 12 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL) 34 23 15

LOCOMOTIVES 22 21 22

AGRICULTURAL IRRIGATION PUMPS 16 7 5 OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION (COMBUSTION) 11 10 10 COGENERATION (ELECTRI CITY GENERATION AND HEAT RECOVERY) 9 7 8

GASOLINE-FUELED COMMERCIAL TRUCKS 9 7 6 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (CROP PROCESSING AND WINERIES) 9 9 9

GLASS AND RELATED PRODUCTS 8 9 11

TOTAL OF TOP CATEGORIES 595 381 253

TOTAL 650 425 300

TOP CATEGORIES PERCENT OF TOTAL 92% 90% 84%

Note: Emissions do not include impact of State Strategy proposed new measures.April 26, 2007 31 South Coast Air Basin – Top Sources of ROG Summer emissions, tons per day Source Category 2006 2014 2023

PASSENGER VEHICLES 207 112 76
CONSUMER PRODUCTS 101 103 110
RECREATIONAL BOATS 64 53 51 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (LAWN AND GARDEN) 52 40 38 ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS) 31 29 31 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL) 28 15 12 PETROLEUM MARKETING (GASOLINE EVAPORATIVE LOSSES) 27 28 31 COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS - NON ARCHITECTURAL) 27 25 28
GASOLINE-FUELED COMMERCIAL TRUCKS 24 13 8
GAS CANS 21 10 7 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (CONSTRUCTION AND MINING) 20 12 8

TOTAL OF TOP CATEGORIES 600 441 399

TOTAL 732 567 534

TOP CATEGORIES PERCENT OF TOTAL 82% 78% 75%

San Joaquin Valley – Top Sources of ROG Summer emissions, tons per day Source Category 2006 2014 2023

PASSENGER VEHICLES 62 37 24
WASTE DISPOSAL/COMPOSTING 57 72 80 LIVESTOCK WASTE (DAIRY CATTLE) 40 33 41 OIL AND GAS PRODUCTION (EVAPORATIVE LOSSES/FLARING) 28 26 23
CONSUMER PRODUCTS 24 26 30
PESTICIDES 22 20 20
HEAVY DUTY DIESEL TRUCKS 20 13 8
RECREATIONAL BOATS 20 17 17 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE (CROP PROCESSING AND WINERIES) 13 12 13 ARCHITECTURAL COATINGS (PAINTS AND THINNERS) 11 12 13 OFF-ROAD EQUIPMENT (COMMERCIAL, INDUSTRIAL) 10 6 4 FARM EQUIPMENT (COMBINES AND TRACTORS) 10 5 3

TOTAL OF TOP CATEGORIES 317 279 277

TOTAL 452 410 414

TOP CATEGORIES PERCENT OF TOTAL 70% 68% 67%

Note: Emissions do not include impact of State Strategy proposed new measures.April 26, 2007 32 Setting the Emission Reduction Targets

U.S. EPA rules require the use of air qua lity modeling to set emission reduction targets. Modeling is also helpful in gui ding the selection of the most effective pollutants to control. To set ozone em ission reduction targets, air quality modeling has been conducted separately for tw o overarching areas. One area is Northern and Central California, encompas sing the San Joaquin and Sacramento Valleys, the Bay Area and the Sierra Ne vada Mountains. ARB staff has been doing this modeling. The ot her area is Southern Califor nia, including the South Coast Air Basin, Ventura C ounty, Imperial Count y, and the Mojave Desert area. The South Coast air district has been doing this modeling. The South Coast air district has also been performing the air qual ity modeling to set its PM2.5 target.

Weight of Evidence Analysis

A Weight of Evidence analysis provides a set of complementary analyses that supplements the SIP-required model ing. These analyses can include consideration of measured air quality, emissions, and meteorological data, evaluation of other air qual ity indicators, and additiona l air quality modeling. A Weight of Evidence approach looks at the entir ety of the information at hand to provide a more informed basis for the at tainment strategy. While all analysis methods have inherent strengths and weak nesses, examining an air quality problem in a variety of ways increases t he confidence one has in the results. This approach also provides a better understanding of the overall problem and the level and mix of emissions controls needed for attainment.

The discussion in Chapter 4 about South C oast PM2.5 pollution is a weight of evidence approach. More detailed weight of evidence analysis will be included in ARB staff reports on the local air district plans and in the local plans themselves.

South Coast Ozone Emi ssion Reduction Targets

Under State law the South Coast air distri ct is responsible for setting carrying capacities for the South Coast Air Basin. While the carrying capacities result in large emission reduction targets fo r both NOx and ROG, the South Coast modeling indicates that NO x reductions are more effective at reducing ozone in the long run, although ROG reductions are still needed to maximize progress. In fact, the air district modified the South Coast Air Basin carrying capacity in its February 2007 draft air plan, relying ev en more heavily on NOx reductions than in its earlier estimates.April 26, 2007 33 The emission reduction targets based on the February 2007 carrying capacities are presented below.

Draft South Coast Ozone Em ission Reduction Targets (tons per day) NOx ROG 2006 Emissions Inventory 972 732 Carrying Capacity 114 420 Emission Reduction Target 858 312

It will be important to revisit the relative carrying capacities in subsequent SIPs to factor in inventory improvement, u pdated modeling, and control measure development.

South Coast PM2.5 Emission Reduction Targets

As discussed previously, unlike ozone, PM2.5 consists of many different components. These components can vary by location and season, with both local and regional scale cont ributions. This complexity and variability presents a unique challenge in modeling for attain ing the annual standard, and introduces a higher level of uncertainty in the results. In addition, while there is a long history and body of experience for ozone model app lication, air qual ity modeling for PM2.5 is relatively more recent, and it has not been applied as extensively. ARB will continue to work with air distri cts on efforts to refine PM2.5 modeling techniques.

Draft South Coast PM2.5 Em ission Reduction Targets

(tons per day) NOx ROG SOx Direct PM2.5 2006 Emissions Inventory 972 732 63 101 Carrying Capacity 443 469 19 88 Emission Reduction Target 529 263 44 13

San Joaquin Valley Emission Reduction Targets

ARB staff has been using photochemical models for Northern and Central California developed as part of the mu lti-million dollar Central California Air Quality Study. This modeling continues to confirm that NOx is the key to long term attainment in the San Joaquin Valley. (This is also true for the Sacramento Valley and the rural regions downwind.) ROG looks benefi cial especially in the near term for maximum progress and to supplement NOx reductions long term.April 26, 2007 34 The ozone emission reduction targets for San Joaquin Valley are shown in the following table. The ROG carrying capacity is implicit, based on the much larger benefit of NOx reductions dem onstrated by the modeling.

San Joaquin Valley Ozone Emission Reduction Targets (tons per day) NOx ROG 2006 Emissions Inventory 650 454 Carrying Capacity 160 342 Emission Reduction Target 490 112

San Joaquin Valley PM2.5 modeling is underway and carrying capacities and emission reduction targets will be developed later in 2007 for a PM2.5 plan that is due to U.S. EPA in April 2008.April 26, 2007 35 

### 3. ARB’s 2007 SIP STATE STRATEGY

The State Strategy maps out how to ac hieve the emission reductions necessary to meet federal air qua lity standards. The two main emission reduction components of the State St rategy are the adopted SIP measures and proposed new measures. The adopted SIP meas ures include those adopted through 2006. Proposed new measures incl ude those to be adopted after 2006.

Responsibility for implementing emission reduction measures is shared between the agencies with primary respon sibility for controlling air po llution in California: the Air Resources Board, 35 local air pollution control and air quality management districts, and the U.S. Enviro nmental Protection Agency. However, given the current status of statewide emissions, AR B has the lion’s share of responsibility, followed by U.S. EPA.

Agency Roles in SIP Measure Development

Local Measures

Local air districts are pr imarily responsible for controlling emissions from stationary and areawide sour ces (with the exception of consumer products) through rules and permitting programs. Ex amples include industrial sources like factories, refineries, and power plants; co mmercial sources like gas stations, dry cleaners, and paint spray booth operations; residential sources like fireplaces, water heaters, and house paints; and mi scellaneous non-mobile sources like emergency generators. Distric ts also inspect and test fuel vapor recovery systems to check that such system s are operating as certified.

State Measures

ARB is responsible for controlling emissions from mobile sources (except where federal law preempts ARB’ s authority) and consumer products, developing fuel specifications, establishing gasoline v apor recovery standards and certifying vapor recovery systems, providing tec hnical support to the districts, and overseeing local district compliance wit h State and federal law. The Department of Pesticide Regulation is responsible fo r control of agricultural, commercial and structural pesticides, while the Bureau of Automotive Repair runs the State’s Smog Check programs to ident ify and repair polluting cars.

Federal Measures

U.S. EPA has the authority to control emissions from mobile sources, including sources all or partly under exclusive feder al jurisdiction (like interstate trucks, some farm and construction equipment, airc raft, marine vessels , and locomotives based in this country). U.S. EPA also has oversight authority for state air programs as they relate to the federal Clean Air Act. International organizations develop standards for aircra ft and marine vessels that operate outside the U.S.April 26, 2007 36 Federal agencies have the lead role in r epresenting the U.S. in the process of developing international standards.

Adopted SIP Measures

Many measures already adopted by lo cal, State and federal agencies are currently reducing emissions. Many will do so at an accelerated rate in the future. Some adopted measures are schedul ed to go into effect years hence. Adopted SIP measures will have a very si gnificant impact on emissions and air quality between now and the target dates (atta inment years) in the areas of the State that do not meet federal ozone and PM2. 5 air quality standards.

Adopted SIP measures have been develo ped over the years through the combined efforts of air pollution regulat ors – with a foundation of ARB’s mobile source and fuels programs, complementar y national actions for pollution sources under federal authority, and local air di strict programs fo r industrial and commercial sources -- as well as transpor tation plans that integrate transit and other alternatives to solo vehicle tr avel. ARB has adopted 46 emission-reducing control measures since the approval of the 1994 1-hour ozone SIP. These measures, shown on the table on Page 38 entitled “Air Resources Board SIP Control Measures (1994-2006),” comprise the bulk of the benefit s of the adopted

measures.

Mobile Sources

Cleaner Engines and Fuels

California has dramatically tightened em ission standards for on-road and off-road mobile sources and the fuels that power them. The table below shows how significantly the adopted measures have c ontrolled emissions from new engines for the major categories of mobile sources.

California’s emission control program fo r on-road motor vehicles is the strongest in the world. New cars are now 99 percent cleaner than their uncontrolled counterparts. Trucks are now 90 perc ent cleaner, and will be 98 percent cleaner by 2010.

Working in concert with t he U.S. EPA, standards for goods movement sources have also been tightened dramatically. By requiring low-sulfur fuel, SOx emissions from ship auxiliary engines will be cut 96 percent by 2010. New locomotive engines are now 50-60 perc ent cleaner. Harbor craft emission standards were cut roughly in half. And new cargo handling equipment will be 95 percent cleaner by 2011.April 26, 2007 37 Impact of Existing Standa rds and Emission Limits

Source Controlled Since Level of Control*

ON-ROAD Passenger Cars 1961 99% in 2006 (ROG + NOx)

Trucks and Buses 1988 90% by 2007, 98% by 2010 (NOx) 98% by 2007 (PM) Motorcycles 1975 88% by 2008 (ROG + NOx)
GOODS MOVEMENT Ship Auxiliary Engines (fuel) 2000 96% (SOx), 83% (PM) by 2010
Locomotives 1973 60% in 2005 (ROG+NOx)
Harbor Craft 2004 50% in 2004 (NOx) Cargo Handling Equipment 2005 95% by 2011-2012 (ROG+NOx, PM)
OFF-ROAD SOURCES Large Off-Road Equipment 1996 98% by 2015 (ROG + NOx)
Personal Water Craft 1990 88% by 2010 (ROG)
Recreational Boats 1990 89% by 2010 (ROG) Lawn & Garden Equipment 1990 82-90% by 2010 (ROG)
AREAWIDE SOURCES
Consumer Products 1989 50 categories controlled 50% (ROG) * Level of emissions control compared to uncontrolled source.

California has also drastically lowered standards for off-road sources, from lawn and garden equipment, to recreational ve hicles and boats, to construction equipment and other large off-road sour ces. From 2010 through 2014, these new off-road sources will be manufactu red with 80-98 percent fewer emissions than their uncontrolled counterparts.

ARB has worked closely with U.S. EPA to regulate large diesel, gasoline and liquid petroleum gas equipment – where aut hority is split between California and the federal government – and by 2014, new large off-road equipment will be 98 percent cleaner. ARB has also made great strides in reducing emissions from the smaller engines under St ate control, like those used in lawn mowers and jet skis, recreational vehicles and boats. From 2010 to 2015, these new off-road sources will be manufactured with 82-90 percent fewer emissions than their uncontrolled counterparts.April 26, 2007 38 Air Resources Board SIP C ontrol Measures (1994-2006)

Air Resources Board Action Date Air Resources Board Action Date

In-Use Diesel Agricultural Engine Requirements 2006 California ZEV Requirement Update 2003

Consumer Product Lower Emission Limits 2006 Heavy-Duty Gas Truck Emission Standards 2002

Zero Emission Bus Rule Amendments 2006 Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Emission Standards 2001

Off-Highway Recreational Vehicle Regulation Amendments 2006 Inboard and Sterndrive Marine Engine Emission Standards 2001

Forklifts and Other SparkIgnition Equipment Regulation 2006 Architectural Coatings Suggested Control Measure 2000

Border Truck Inspection Program Protocol Improvements 2006 Urban Transit Bus Fleet Rule 2000

Ship Auxiliary Engine Cleaner Fuel Requirements 2005 Off-Road Diesel Equipment Emission Standards 2000

Diesel Cargo Handling Equipment Rule 2005 Reformulated Gas MTBE Phase Out 1999

Public and Utility Diesel Truck Fleet Rule 2005 Consumer Product Emission Limits 1999

Heavy-Duty Sleeper Truck Idling Limits 2005 Portable Fuel Can Regulation 1999

Portable Fuel Container Requirements 2005 Marine Pleasurecraft Emission Standards 1998

Transit Bus Rule Additions Low-Emission Vehicle Program (LEV II) Exhaust Standards 1998

Off-Road Diesel Engine Tier 4 Standards 2004 Large Off-Road Gas/LPG Engine Emission Standards 1998

Harbor Craft and Locomotive Clean Diesel Fuel Requirement 2004 Cleaner Burning Gasoline Rule Improvements 1998

Idling Limits for Trucks 2004 On-Road Heavy-Duty Truck Exhaust Emission Standards 1998

Consumer Products Rule 2004 Light-Duty Vehicle Off-Cycle Emission Controls 1997

Chip Reflash to Detect Truck Emission Control System Failure 2004 Consumer Product Emission Limits 1997

Transportation Refrigeration Unit Rule 2004 Locomotive Memorandum of Agreement for the South Coast 1997

Portable Diesel Engine Emission Standards 2004 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Gas Truck Emission Standards 1995

Stationary Diesel Engine Regulation 2004 Aerosol Coatings Regulation 1995

Solid Waste Collection Vehicle Regulation 2003 Large Off-Road Diesel Statement of Principles 1996

Lawn and Garden Equipment Emission Standards 2003 Medium- and Heavy-Duty Gasoline Trucks 1995

Low Sulfur Diesel Fuel Regulation 2003 Off-Road Recreational Vehicles Regulation 1994April 26, 2007 39 The charts below clearly illustrate the benefits of adopted SIP measures to reduce emissions from mobile sources. The dow nward emission trends are dramatic given California’s projected growth in populat ion, vehicle travel, and goods movement activities. But because on-road and off-road mobile sources together account for so much of the State's inventory of oz one and PM2.5 forming emissions, further reductions in mobile source emissions are essential if air quality standards are to be realized.

Passenger Vehicles Statewide ROG+NOx (tpd)

0 300 600 900 1200 1500

2006 2014 2023 Trucks Statewide ROG+NOx (tpd)

0 300 600 900 1200 1500

2006 2014 2023 Off-Road Equipment Statewide ROG+NOx (tpd)

0 300 600 900 1200 1500

2006 2014 2023

Cleaning Up the Legacy Fleet

Adopted SIP measures have made significant strides in reducing emissions from those mobile sources already in use – the legacy fleet -- by keeping existing vehicles cleaner longer, getting cleaner technology on older vehicles and equipment, and replacing older dirtier vehi cles and equipment with cleaner ones. Whereas new engine emissions have been regulated for a l ong time, most of the in-use control programs have just begun to evolve and have an impact. We still have a lot of work to do to clean up the lega cy fleet. That is wh y the majority of new measures in the State Stra tegy are in-use measures.

Many programs and rules are currently in place to reduce emissions from the mobile source legacy fleets. The Sm og Check Program ensures that passenger vehicles stay clean as they age and on-board diagnostic syst ems identify smog control problems. Heavy-duty truck inspection programs help control smoke emissions and detect emission contro l malmaintenance and tampering.

ARB has adopted 20 in-use regulations in the last five years. In-use regulations have required use of cleaner fuels, great ly reducing emissions from ships and harbor craft. Excessive truck and bus idling has been restricted. ARB has adopted public and private fleet rules that require local governments and private companies to incorporate the cleanest vehi cles and equipment into their fleets. In-use testing procedures and verificati on requirements for in-use emission control technology have been strengthened. And other operational and emission control technology requirements that help reduce emissions from existing vehicle and equipment have been put into place.April 26, 2007 40 Incentive programs have worked hand-in-ha nd with in-use regulations, providing added emissions benefits. California is currently in vesting up to $140 million per year to clean up older, higher-emitting sources through the Carl Moyer Program. The Smog Check Breathe Easier Campaign pays motorists $1,000 to permanently retire their high-polluting vehicles. And local governments use special vehicle registration fees to fund projects that further reduce emissions from motor vehicles.

Consumer Products

ARB has adopted standards to limit emissions from nearly 50 consumer product categories (such as hair sprays, deodorants, and cleaning compounds), as well as over 35 architectural coatings and aerosol paints categories. The Board has adopted and implemented voluntary provisions to offer greater compliance flex ibility to consumer product manufacturers while retaining t he air quality benefits. Without these actions, ROG emissions from these pr oducts would be roughly 60 percent greater in 2010. But, as you can see from the above chart, the impact of population growth begins to counter t he benefits of adopted measures – more controls are needed.

Local Rules and Programs

Stationary and Area Sources

Local air districts are pr imarily responsible for controlling emissions from stationary and areawide sources, with t he exception of consumer products, through regulations and permi ts. Stationary sources include industrial sources like factories and power plants, commerc ial sources like gas stations and dry cleaners, and residential sources such as fireplaces and water heaters. Areawide sources are diffuse sources of emissions that are spread over a wide area, such as paints and pesticides.

Local air districts help reduce emissions through limits on emissions from new sources (the New Source Review progr am) and technology-based requirements for existing sources, called Best Ava ilable Retrofit Cont rol Technology and Reasonably Available Control Technology requirements. Air districts adopt and enforce rules governing these sources of emissions.

Businesses in California are subject to t he most stringent air quality rules in the country. Local air districts have adopt ed a number of innovative rules and programs over the years to help reduce em issions. For example, South Coast’s innovative program, RECLAIM, provides ma rket incentives for companies to use the cleanest possible technologies. And the San Joaquin Valley has adopted a Without ARB Program With ARB Program Consumer Product Emissions

200 250 300 350 400 450

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010Tons per day ROG

Without ARB Program

With ARB Pro g ramApril 26, 2007 41 first-of-its-kind indirect s ource rule that ensures that new developments bear their fair share of the pollution burden. ARB has suggested over 50 control strategies for stationary sources that many local air districts have adopted.

The proposed local air district measures for each nonattainment area are listed, described, and quantified in the attainm ent plans for each area. The local measures, coupled with the State Stra tegy measures, must provide the necessary emission reductions to meet the federal standards.

Transportation and Land Use Planning

In California, local governments are re sponsible for transportation and land use planning, and transportation plans are an im portant part of the SIP. Federal law requires a metropolitan region’s transporta tion plan to be complementary to and conform with the region’s air quality plan. Transportation and land use strategies can help to reduce the rate of growth in vehicle travel and traffic congestion, which helps reduce the growth in vehicl e emissions. All th e major metropolitan regions in California have approved plans emphasizing land use strategies that complement their transit and trans portation systems and bring more people closer to more destinations. These strategies will help curb emissions by reducing trip distances and increasing use of public transit, carpooling, walking, and biking.

ARB’s Proposed New SIP Measures

If emission reductions from the adopted m easures are not enough to attain the federal standards, sufficient emission reduc tions from new strategies must be achieved in order to meet t he emission reduction target.

ARB staff is proposing a comprehensive and far reaching set of new measures to achieve emission reductions needed to address California’s most challenging ozone and PM2.5 problems. These meas ures are designed to make maximum progress toward the federal 8-hour oz one standard in the South Coast and the San Joaquin Valley. The measures include aggressive near-term NOx and SOx emission reduction goals, reflecting t he nature and scope of the PM2.5 problem in these regions. To achieve the emission reductions needed for both ozone and PM2.5, the State Strat egy proposes new near-term actions that can be completed by 2010 or soon thereafter.

Focus of Proposed New Measures

Mobile sources are the largest c ontributor to PM2.5 and ozone-forming emissions. Air quality science indicate s that reductions of NOx are more beneficial than reductions of ot her pollutant precursors to help reduce levels of both ozone and PM2.5. The simple conc lusion is that mobile source NOx reductions must be a main objective of t he State Strategy. And since the State and federal government have almost excl usive authority over mobile sourceApril 26, 2007 42 emissions, they also have the bulk of the responsibility fo r implementing the State Strategy.

Mobile sources currently produce about 90 percent of all NOx emissions in the South Coast. About 90 percent of mobile source NOx emissions are produced by five major sources – passenger v ehicles, heavy-duty diesel trucks, large off-road equipment, and two goods move ment-related sources -- ships, and locomotives. Reducing NOx emissions from these five major sources is therefore the key to meeting the objective of the State Strategy.

More than any other pollution control effo rt, ARB’s mobile source program has moved the State’s nonattain ment areas closer to m eeting federal air quality standards. The majority of emission reductions from adopted SIP measures comes from emission standards for new on-road and off-road mobile sources and fuels. But as new engines have become cleaner and cleaner, the emissions contribution from older vehicles has been growing to the extent that it will soon make up the majority of mobile source emissions. For example, all on-road vehicles 14 years old or older will pr oduce almost 60 percent of total on-road NOx emissions by 2014 but just 20 percent of total miles traveled. That is why

the majority of proposed new measures in the State Strategy are in-use measures – programs to help clean up the l egacy fleet of older, dirtier vehicles and equipment. We simply can not wait for the natural turnover of older vehicles (1-5 percent annual turnover depending on vehicle or equipment type) being replaced with newer ones. 

### On-Road Vehicles 14 Years Old or Older In 2014 20% of Miles Traveled 60% of NOx Emissions Passenger Vehicles Heavy-Duty Trucks Construction Equip Ships Locomotives 

## 90% of Mobile Sources Mobile Sources 90% of All NOx EmissionsApril 26, 2007 43 While action on the proposed in-use m easures will be completed by 2010, their implementation will extend past 2010 and through 2014 to 2020. Longer-term actions will center on the final increm ent needed to attain the standard in the areas with the worst ozone pollution.

Passenger Vehicles and Heavy-Duty Trucks

Despite statewide growth in vehicle travel of 35 percent over the last 15 years, total car and truck emissions (ROG+NOx) have decreased almost 50 percent.

California has led the way in adopt ing stringent regulations for passenger vehicles. Compared to uncontrolled vehicl es, cars are now 99 percent cleaner. A new 1965 car produced about 2,000 pounds of ozone-forming ROG emissions during 100,000 miles of driving. Calif ornia's low-emission standards, coupled with reformulated gasoline, have cut that to less than 50 pounds for the average new car today. By 2010, California' s standards will further reduce ROG emissions from the average new 2010 car to approximately 10 pounds.

ARB’s first diesel engine regulations went into effect in 1988. Significant gains began with the introduction of California Cl ean Diesel fuel in 1993. U.S. EPA and ARB worked together to develop and adopt the next phases of on-road diesel engine control, with cleaner fuel in 2006 and even cleaner engines in 2007 that will reduce per-truck particulate matter emissions by another 90 percent. By 2010, new trucks will be 98 percent cleaner than new pre-1988 models, providing needed NOx reductions.

NOx ROG

0 1 2 3 4 5grams/mile

1970 1975 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

As new cars and trucks become cleaner, t he emissions contri bution from older vehicles has been growing to the extent t hat it will soon make up the majority of mobile source emissions. Thus, Californ ia’s emission control program has also had to focus on cleaning up those vehicles already in use – the “legacy” or “in-use” fleet.

California’s Smog Check Program is t he cornerstone of the passenger vehicle in-use strategy, currently keeping over 400 tons of smog-forming gases from entering the air statewide each day. Pa ssenger vehicles are also required to NOx

PM (x 10)

0 2 4 6 8 10 12g/bhp-hr

Pre1988 1988 1991 1994 1998 2003 2007 2010 Truck Emission Standards Auto Emission StandardsApril 26, 2007 44 have software incorporated into their on-board computers to detect emission control system malfunctions as they occu r. ARB’s heavy-duty vehicle inspection program and periodic smoke inspection program reduce emi ssions from the legacy truck fleet. Trucks will also be requi red to have the same emission control malfunction detection software as pass enger vehicles begi nning in 2013.

Cars and heavy-duty diesel trucks currently produce about 50 perce nt of the total NOx emissions in both the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. By 2023, that percentage will be cut almost in half. Bu t cars and trucks still account for so much of the State’s inv entory of ozone and PM 2.5 emissions, further reductions are essential if air quality standar ds are to be realized.

Proposed New Passenger Vehicle and Heavy-Duty Truck Measures

Passenger Vehicles

Since California’s passenger vehicle em issions standards have done their job to cut emissions to near-zero levels, the cont rol focus must shift to keeping vehicles clean over their lifetimes. The State Strategy envisions an even stronger Smog Check program that would reduce an addi tional 40 tons per day of emissions statewide in 2014. Proposed new Sm og Check measures include annual inspections for cars with high failure rates, such as vehicles over 15 years old and vehicles accumulating high annual miles of travel, and adding inspections of motorcycles and smaller diesel vehicl es. More attention will be paid to evaporative emissions through the addition of a low-pressure evaporative test, even as exhaust emission cutpoints are tightened.

The State Strategy proposes to increas e the number of vehicles that are voluntarily retired by implementing a scr appage program for vehicles that are off cycle from their Smog Check inspections. This strategy will depend upon funding and would be targeted primarily in the S outh Coast and San Joaquin Valley. We will also continue to ensure that the f uels used in California are the cleanestburning available, and mitigate the additi onal evaporative em issions resulting from the addition of ethanol to gasoline.

These proposed passenger vehicle measur es would reduce total NOx and ROG emissions in the South Coast by about 32 tons per day in 2014 and over 22 tons in 2020. Likewise, this measure will r educe total NOx and ROG emissions in the San Joaquin Valley by over 10 tons in 2014 and about 7 tons in 2020.

Heavy-Duty Diesel Trucks

Substantially reducing emissions from existing trucks is key to meeting federal air quality standards, as well as achiev ing diesel risk reduction and goods movement clean air goals. The State Strategy foresees an expansive in-use diesel truck emission reduction program t hat would reduce NOx emissions by 47 tons per day in the South Coast and 61 t ons per day in the San Joaquin ValleyApril 26, 2007 45 by 2014. Direct PM2.5 emissions would also be reduced 2-3 tons per day in both the South Coast and San Joaquin Valle y during the same time period.

A comprehensive fleet modernization pr ogram beginning in 2010 would replace older trucks, repower tru cks with cleaner engines, and retr ofit trucks with devices to reduce both NOx and PM. The pr oposed modernization program would be equivalent to replacing approximately 30 percent of the oldest trucks by 2014 with 2010 model year or newer trucks, and will be accomplished through private truck fleet regulations. It is envisioned t hat the use of public incentive funds will be needed as well to facilitate fleet m odernization on the scale necessary to attain PM2.5 and ozone st andards within SIP deadlines.

The in-use diesel truck program also pr oposes to reduce emissions from trucks registered outside of California and to lessen the effects of emission control deterioration.

Impact of Car and Truck SIP Measures

Adopted SIP measures would reduce passe nger vehicle NOx emissions in the South Coast by 67 percent betw een 2006 and 2020. Proposed new SIP measures would reduce that by another 15 percent by 2020.

South Coast Passenger Vehicle Emissions - NOx

0 50 100 150 200 250

2 0 06 2007 2008 2 009 2 01

0 2 01

1 2012 2013 2 014 2 01

5 2 01

6 2 0

17 2018 2 019 2 020NOx Tons per Day

With New SIP Measures With Adopted SIP Measures

Heavy-duty truck NOx emissions woul d be reduced by adopted SIP measures 67 percent between 2006 and 2020. Proposed new SIP measures would reduce NOx emissions by another 45 percent by 2020.April 26, 2007 46 South Coast Truck Emissions - NOx

0 50 100 150 200 250

2 0 06 2007 2008 2 009 2 01

0 2 01

1 2012 2013 2 014 2 01

5 2 01

6 2 0

17 2018 2 019 2 020NOx Tons per Day

With New SIP Measures With Adopted SIP Measures

Good Movement Sources

The goods movement sector includes the ships, trains, port trucks, and related sources that help move materials and goods from the grower or manufacturer to the consumer. The air quality impact of the goods movement sector is a major issue in areas that host ports, large rail facilities, and major truck routes. Many entities have developed or are developing plans to address the impacts of goods movement, including the California Environmental Protection Agency and the Business, Transportation & Housing Agency, the Air Resources Board, the South Coast Air Quality Management District, seve ral California ports, and two major railroads.

Two factors increase the importance of addressing emissions from goods movement sources. First, international trade through California’s ports is growing rapidly: the volume of goods moving th rough the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach – the nation’s busiest port complex – is expected to more than double by 2020. Second, the most pr ominent sources in this sector have historically not been regulated as aggressi vely as stationary sources or other mobile sources. Goods movement sour ces are also powered by diesel engines that last longer than their gasoline-pow ered counterparts, and are often rebuilt before being replaced with newer, cleaner equipment. As a result new engine standards alone will not provide emission re ductions in the timeframe allowed to attain the federal PM2.5 and ozone standards.

New measures in the St ate Strategy focus on the following goods movement sources: ships, locomotives, harbor craf t, and port trucks. They closely mirror the measures included in Emission Reduction Plan for Ports and Goods Movement in California, approved by AR B in April 2006, and summarized briefly in Chapter 1. It is esti mated that these measures will reduce 20 tons per day ofApril 26, 2007 47 SOx, 49 tons per day of NO x, and about 4 tons per day of direct PM2.5 in the South Coast by 2014.

Ships

Emissions from ocean-going vessels, unlik e most major pollution sources, are not projected to decrease in future years, since ships have little or no emission controls and run on high-emitting bunker f uel, and shipments of cargo containers are projected to grow significantly over the next two decades. Ships currently emit half the statewide SOx emissions, and it is estimated that ships will jump from the sixth to the sec ond highest statewide NOx pro ducer by 2023. It is essential to reduce ship emissions as t hey are entering our ports and when they are docked through application of demons trated control technologies, use of cleaner fuels, and operational efficiencies. Since ARB does not have authority to set ship engine emission standards, we must work with national and international authorities, as well as the ports, to im plement many of the control measures.

ARB took a big step in reducing emissions from ships in December 2005 by adopting a rule phasing in the use of cleaner low-sulfur fuel in ship auxiliary engines that will reduce SOx emissions fr om auxiliary engines by 96 percent and PM2.5 emissions by 83 per cent beginning in 2010.

Proposed New Ship Measures

In addition to the 2005 auxiliary engine fuel rule, the State Strategy proposes to reduce emissions from ship auxiliary engines through cold ironing and other clean technology. Cold ironing allows ships to turn off their au xiliary engines and instead plug into an electrical system for power when they are docked at a port. This measure would phase in the number of ships capable of using cold ironing and other at-dock technologies such as the “hood”, which fits onto a ship’s exhaust stack and cleans the emissi ons, and is estimated to reduce NOx emissions about 19 tons per day in 2014 and 28 tons per day in 2020.

The State Strategy proposes to reduce emissions from ship main engines through a variety of measures. A main engine fuel rule, patterned after the auxiliary engine fuel rule, would help reduce emissions by introducing a cleaner, low-sulfur fuel beginning no later than 2010. Increasing the use of cleaner new engines or retrofitted engines beginning in 2010 could be implemented via regulation, incentives, voluntary agr eements, or a combination of these approaches. Higher ship speeds cause mu ch higher emissions. So a measure is proposed that would strengthen a current voluntary program by requiring ships to reduce their speeds to 12 knots within 40 nautical miles of the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. The combination of ship main engine measures would reduce both NOx and SOx em issions by 20 tons per day and direct PM2.5 emissions by over 2 tons per day in 2014. These reducti ons would increase substantially through 2023.April 26, 2007 48 Impact of Ship SIP Measures

Without new SIP measures, ship NOx emissions are estimated to increase almost 90 percent between 2006 and 2020. With proposed new SIP measures, NOx emissions from ships would be 67 percent less than t he projected 2020 levels and about 35 percent less than 2006 levels.

South Coast Ship Emissions - NOx

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

2 0 0 6 2007 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2011 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2015 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0NOx Tons per Day

With New SIP Measures Without New Measures

It is estimated that SOx emissions fr om ships will double without the adopted and new SIP measures. The adopted SIP meas ure (auxiliary engine fuel rule) will help reduce SOx more than 50 percent from projected 2014 levels, but emissions would then begin increasing due to goods movement growth. With proposed new SIP measures, SOx emissions would be reduced to only 2 tons per day in the South Coast by 2014 and remain at that low level through 2020.

South Coast Ship Emissions - SOx

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2006 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2013 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2017 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0SOx Tons per Day

With New SIP Measures Without New Measures

With Adopted ARB MeasureApril 26, 2007 49 Locomotives

Locomotives pose a difficult challenge due to their long life, interstate operations, and California’s reliance on U.S. EPA to adopt new engine standards. A rule adopted by ARB in 2004 now requires locomotives operating in California to use cleaner, low-sulfur fuel that will reduc e SOx emissions 90 percent. Several strategies are underway to clean up locall y-based switcher engines, reduce idling emissions at railyards, and concentrate t he cleanest available line haul engines in the South Coast. These activities are important for co mmunity health and NOx emission reductions in the short term. But without the introduction of cleaner new locomotive engines into California operation, growth is expected to quickly catch up to these current actions and begi n to steer the NOx emissions curve upward.

In 1998, ARB reached agreement with the rail industry to accelerate introduction of Tier 2 locomotives into the South C oast Air Basin to achieve a 67 percent reduction. However, as shown below, emissions are projected to begin increasing after 2010 due to growth. A similar agreement is needed to accelerate introduction of the next gener ation of cleaner locomotives once EPA adopts new standards.

Proposed New SIP Measures

The State Strategy proposes U.S. EPA ad option of more stringent new engine standards and a new industry commitment to accelerate introduction of cleaner engines in California to meet the atta inment needs of the South Coast and the San Joaquin Valley. It is anticipated that the new standards will reduce NOx and PM emissions by 90 percent. The propos ed measure would call for replacement of existing locomotive engines with cleaner engines and rebuilds of older engines until 100 percent of the statewide locomo tive fleet has been upgraded. ARB is pushing U.S. EPA to adopt the standards wi th earliest possible implementation, as this measure can only occur once U.S. EPA adopts new locomotive standards.April 26, 2007 50 Impact of Locomotive SIP Measures

The proposed new SIP measures would r educe NOx emissions from locomotives by 13 tons per day in the South Coast and 16 tons per day by from 2006 to 2020.

South Coast Locomotive Emissions - NOx

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

2 0 0 6 2007 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2011 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2015 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0NOx Tons per Day

With New SIP Measures With Existing Controls

Harbor Craft

Standards adopted by U.S. EPA provide fo r new harbor craft engines that have roughly 50 percent less NOx emissions t han uncontrolled engines. The State Strategy proposes a new measure requiri ng harbor craft owners to replace older engines with the newer, cleaner engines a nd/or add control technologies that reduce emissions, reducing NOx emissions in the South Coast about 5 tons per day by 2014.

Port trucks

Most port trucks start out as long-haul tr ucks and then are put into short-haul use as they get older and are no longer reliable enough for long-haul service. Because port trucks are purchased used, emission standards for new trucks will reduce emissions from trucks servicing t he ports later than they will impact the long-haul fleet. The State Strategy pr oposes a port truck modernization program that would phase in beginning in 2008 and would include replacing older trucks with newer, cleaner trucks and retrofitting engines with emission-reducing control technology, reducing South Coast NOx em issions 2 tons per day by 2014 and 8 tons per day by 2020.April 26, 2007 51 Large Off-Road Equipment

Emission standards for new off-road di esel engines have become increasingly more stringent over the past decade, ensur ing that new construction, mining, industrial and oil drilling equipment become progressively cleaner. By 2015, new large off-road equipment will produce 98 percent less ROG+NOx than their uncontrolled counterparts. Ho wever, large diesel off-road equipment with more than 25 horsepower remain in use for long periods of time, sometimes up to 60 years. This long life means that new, lower emitting engines are introduced into fleets relatively slowly with the result t hat the emission reducti ons and associated health benefits from these clean er engines will also be fair ly slow to materialize.

Proposed New Large Off-R oad Equipment Measure

ARB staff is currently in the process of developing a statewide in-use off-road equipment regulation which co uld require initial NOx an d PM emissions averages to be met, with increasingl y lower emissions averages over time. Staff began work on the rule in 2004 as part of t he Diesel Risk Reduction Program. During early SIP development work in 2006, staff identified the necessity for large NOx emission reductions from off-road equipment and other diesel sources to meet the health-based federal air quality standar ds. Consequently, staff revised the control concept extensively to meet Calif ornia’s clean air needs relative to diesel particulates, ozone, and PM2.5.

This proposed measure would require owners of equipment larger than 25 horsepower to meet a stringent average emissions level across all of their equipment. The fleet average approach provides equipment owners flexibility in how they will comply, including: sw apping older, dirtier engines with newer, cleaner engines; purchasing newer equi pment (with cleaner engines); and, adding emission control devices to older engines. Equipment owners could also restrict unnecessary equipment idling.

This measure would reduce 10.5 tons per day of NOx and about 3 tons per day of direct PM2.5 in the South Coast and nearly 4 tons per day of NOx and a ton per day of direct PM2.5 in the San Joaqui n Valley by 2014. It would also cut direct PM2.5 emissions by more than half in 2014 and by 70 percent in 2023.April 26, 2007 52 Impact of Large Off-Road Equipment SIP Measures

Adopted SIP measures would reduce lar ge off-road equipment NOx emissions in the South Coast by almost 60 perc ent between 2006 and 2020. Proposed new SIP measures would reduce that by another 30 percent by 2020.

South Coast Construction Equipment Emissions - NOx

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

2 00

6 2 00

7 2008 2 009 2 010 2 01

1 2 01

2 2013 2 014 2 015 2 01

6 2 01

7 2018 2 019 2 020NOx Tons per Day

With New SIP Measures With Adopted SIP Measures

Agricultural Equipment

The State Strategy will assess an equipment modernization program once modeling for the San Joaqui n Valley’s PM2.5 SIP s hows to what extent accelerated fleet modernization may be needed.

Other Off-Road Sources

For many gasoline-fueled off-road sources, evapor ative emissions are a significant portion of total emissions. Leaky hoses, tanks, and other parts of an engine’s fuel system and refueling infras tructure release hundreds of tons of ROG into the atmosphere a day. Succe ss with low- to no-evaporative emission technology in on-road sources supports strategies to reduce evaporative emissions to similar low levels in o ff-road sources. M any newly-regulated sources have exhaust standards but do not yet have evaporative standards. The State Strategy proposes to set st andards where ther e are none and make standards more stringent in sources that are not adequately controlled.

Off-road sources used mainly for recr eational purposes are large emission contributors, especially during the summer ozone season. The main focus of the State Strategy on this wide array of sm aller off-road sources is evaporative emissions. Recreational marine boat engi nes and off-road recreational vehicles are the biggest targets, with standar ds being implemented by 2010 and ROG emission reductions growing through 2023 as these newer, cleaner engines become a bigger part of the overall recreat ional fleet. Refuel ing tanks, portableApril 26, 2007 53 fuel tanks, and gas stati on fueling hoses, where emi ssions are the result of evaporation or permeation of ROG from gasoline, are also targeted. The proposed measures covering these off-ro ad sources would reduce a combined 7 tons per day of ROG in the South Coast and about 4 tons per day in the San Joaquin Valley by 2014.

Areawide Sources

Consumer Products

Chemically formulated consumer products such as automotive care products, household care products, and personal ca re products have been regulated as a source of ROG emissions in five rulema kings since 1989. As a result of these measures, statewide emissions from c onsumer products will be reduced by over 170 tons per day in 2010, a 40 percent reduction. Despite this progress, population growth in the years ahead is ex pected to reverse the downward trend of emissions from consumer products , after the latest standards become effective. Therefore, additi onal controls for this sect or will remain important. Indeed, consumer products are expected to become the largest source of ROG emissions in the South Coast, and the th ird largest source in the San Joaquin Valley by 2020.

The State Strategy will continue ARB’ s commitment to reduce ROG emissions from consumer products. Rulemakings are expected to be promulgated between 2007 and 2012, expanding beyond the cu rrent category-by-category standards and pursuing innovative approaches, reduci ng ROG emissions about 13 tons in the South Coast and almost 4 tons per day in the San J oaquin Valley by 2020.

Pesticides

Pesticide emissions from agricultura l and commercial uses fall under the Department of Pesticide Regulation’s (DPR) authority. A measure to reduce pesticide emissions was included in t he SIP adopted in 1994. Th e State Strategy includes an updated version of that measur e. It is a strategy to reduce ROG emissions from pesticides through regulatio ns that may include limitations on the use of products formulated as fumigants, registration standards requiring liquid products that contribute less to ozone fo rmation, and incentives promoting pest management practices that use less pesticide.

Local Measures

The proposed new local air district m easures, coupled with the new State Strategy measures, must provide the nec essary emission reductions to meet the federal standards. The new local meas ures for each nonattainment area are listed, described, and quantified in t he attainment plans for each area.April 26, 2007 54 Need for Technology Development and Long-term Measures

In developing the proposed State Strategy , ARB staff analyzed whether current NOx technologies for mobile source s are clean enough to provide all the emission reductions needed for ozone attainment in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. ARB included in this anal ysis the phasing in of the cleanest new technology standards from 2007-2017 t hat ARB and U.S. EPA have already adopted for diesel engines: 0.2 g/bhp-hr on-road truck standards in 2010, full offroad Tier 4 standards in 2014, and the recent U.S. EPA-proposed low-NOx standards for locomotive engines starting in 2017. The table below summarizes this analysis. For both areas, the totals of remaining emissions after full clean-up of the legacy diesel fleets are still gr eater than the NOx carrying capacities.

The clear conclusion is that even cleaner emission standards are needed than are in place today. This demonstrates t hat it necessary for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley SIPs to rely on cl eaner – yet to be developed – technologies as allowed by federal Clean Air Act se ction 182(e)(5) for areas with the worst pollution.

All New Fleets Analysis -- Unconstrained by Cost

Remaining NOx 2020 Emissions (tpd) * Source South Coast San Joaquin Valley Passenger vehicles 18 5 Diesel trucks 37 43 Construction and other equipment 14 5 Farm equipment 1 7 Locomotive 7 5 Ships and harbor craft 37 1 Aircraft 27 5 Stationary/area-wide sources 55 103 Subtotal of remaining emissions from above categories 195 173

All other NOx sources 52 22 Total of all remaining emissions 247 195 Carrying capacity 114 160 * Numbers may not add exactly due to rounding

For this analysis, ARB staff assumed that in 2020 all passenger cars would be 10 years old or younger, all diesel tru cks would meet the 2010 NOx standards, all diesel construction and farm equipment w ould meet the most stringent tier 4 standards, all locomotives would meet U.S. EPA’s proposed 2017 NOx standards, and the new stationar y sources measure in the district SIPs would be fully implemented.April 26, 2007 55 The top five rows are italicized to indi cate the categories for which we assume that all vehicles and equipment meet the cleanest adopted emission standards. Included in the category “a ll other NOx sources” ar e commercial gas trucks, motorcycles, buses, motor homes, off -road recreational vehicles, and gas powered off-road equipment.

ARB staff did the analysis starting with 2020 baseline emissions since that year corresponds to the last federal attain ment deadline befor e the 2024 extremeclassification deadline under which the l ong-term measure provisions of federal law apply. The numbers woul d look nearly identical for an analysis for any year between now and 2020 as the st arting point. (For exampl e, ARB staff calculated the “total of remaining emission” for t he San Joaquin Valley us ing a 2018 starting point. The resulting “total of remain ing emission” was approximately 195 tons per day.) The carrying capacity is indepen dent of the year. Therefore, the analysis and conclusion that it is necessary for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley ozone SIPs to rely on cleaner , yet to be developed, technologies is general and does not change with year analyzed.

The results for the San Joaquin Valley demonstrate that the need for cleaner technologies includes cleaner technologie s for industrial sources, not just vehicles. Close to half of the San Joaquin Valley re maining emissions, 103 tons per day compared to a carrying capacity of 160 tons per day, ar e from stationary and area-wide sources. Clearly, long-term reductions from new technologies for both mobile and stationar y sources will be needed.

Process for Identifying Long-Term Emission Reductions

ARB has a long-standing hist ory of successfully adopt ing and implementing both technology-advancing regulations and innovative emission control techniques. By working closely with research scientis ts and the regulated industry, ARB staff have been able to craft regulations t hat are stringent enough to compel technology development, yet flexible enough to encourage industry innovations.

ARB staff believe a directed process is needed to ensure that future emission reduction opportunities are i dentified that are large enough and arrive in time to meet the attainment deadline.

To accomplish this, ARB staff proposes to take the lead in a coordinated government, private, and public effort to establish emission goals for critical emission source categories. Each categor y’s goal will serve as a general target for how much cleaner that emission source category will need to be for attainment purposes. The setting of the source cat egory emission goals must be science-based in two ways. First, the goal s must be tied to the State’s overall emission reduction needs. Although, esti mated emission reduction needs will change as modeling and emission inventorie s are updated, a working estimate of how far technology needs to be pushed is critical to a successful outcome. Second, the goals must reflect a reasonabl e assessment of how far technology can progress over the time available for attainment.April 26, 2007 56 This process of goal setting will give dire ction and distance to ARB and air district regulatory efforts to set the next generat ion of emission standards. As ARB and air districts identify future feasible em ission reduction measures toward the goals, those measures will be incorporated into future SIPs. However, to keep nearterm focus on the need to find more emissi on reductions, ARB staff proposes to periodically brief the Board on emer ging emission reduction opportunities and promising technologies.

Potential Long-Term Concepts

Although the identification of long-te rm emission reductions will begin with the emission goal setting for critical emissi on source categories, specific approaches that ARB will evaluate for possible incl usion in the next SIP update include the following:

Passenger vehicles: look for further reductions from reduced deterioration of emission reduction components. While new cars are very clean, it may be possible to improve the on-board diagnosti c capability of passenger vehicles and heavy-duty trucks to better target sour ces of emissions and to improve and encourage higher rates of repair.

Tighten emission standards wherever possibl e: review all categories of engines and vehicles to ensure that the cleanest co st-effective technologies are in place. For example:

• Exhaust and evaporative standards for on-road motorcycles.

• Second generation catalyst-based emission standards for inboard/stern drive marine engines.

• Tighter exhaust emission limit s for small off-road engines.

Cleaner ground support equipment: push for increased electrification. Captured vehicle and equipment fleets used at air ports are cleaner today through natural turnover and accelerated turnover spu rred through cooperative State and local government and air company efforts. However, additional opportunities for increased electrification remain.

Air quality priority for federal transportati on funding: work with local governments to prioritize federal transportation fundi ng uses to better support air quality goals. The federal Congestion and Air Quality Improvement (CMAQ) Program annually provides to county transportation agencie s more than $200 million in the South Coast and about $50 million in the San Joaquin Valley through 2009. The purpose of the CMAQ Program, according to Federal Highway Administration 2006 guidance, is to fund trans portation projects that will contribute to attainment of national ambient air quality standards.April 26, 2007 57 Ideas Requiring Further Exploration

Air quality control is an ever emerging fiel d. At ARB, new ways to control air pollutants and improve public health are continually developed through research and other staff work. At any one time, t here are always emission reduction ideas on the horizon that we have not fully expl ored or developed. Some of these approaches that are in various stages of development could turn out to be effective strategies at some point in the future.

The following approaches show promis e as potential emission reduction strategies. However, because of te chnological constraints and uncertain authority, they are less def ined and will require significa nt exploration prior to becoming concepts.

Explore opportunities for cleaner fuels. The near-term focus for fuels-related efforts in California will be to devel op low carbon fuels in response to the Governor’s 2007 Executive Order. Separate fr om that effort, AR B will continue to evaluate the opportunities for cost-effect ive reformulations to reduce criteria pollutant emissions.

Pursue additional emission reductions from consumer products. Despite the actions to date and the new measures propos ed in this plan, consumer products continue to be an ever larger perc entage of ROG emissions because of population growth. ARB will continue to look for even cleaner consumer product technologies and innovative approaches to reduce emissions such as reactivitybased and market-based strategies. This would continue the search for new approaches to achieve emission reducti ons initiated within the near-term consumer product measure.

Explore approaches to further reduce vo latile emissions from pesticides. With the Department of Pesticide Regulation as the lead, work with interested stakeholders to determine how pesticide emissions could be further reduced.

Continue and enhance current public education and outreach programs. Public and private energy conservation and effi ciency programs would continue and expand. The establishment of a statewide public educ ation campaign to reduce air pollution could be considered, and might include ideas to engage the public through: (1) public education that mo re clearly connects voluntary clean air actions with public health benefits, and (2) increasing awareness of available low-emitting consumer products, pai nts, vehicles, lawn equipment, and recreational vehicles licensed to use clean air “green” labels.

Advocate for efficient regional land use and transportation strategies. In California, local governments have the aut hority over most tr ansportation funding and land use decisions. The most effectiv e way for regions to curb long-term growth of vehicle travel and lessen aut o emissions is to build on and enhance current efforts to implement transporta tion and land use strategies proven to reduce vehicle trips and decrease average trip lengths.April 26, 2007 58 State Implementation Plan Commitments

This section sets forth the State’s SI P commitments for the 2007 State Strategy for two of the areas that need the em ission benefits from the proposed, new State measures to demonstrate atta inment – South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. Specific commitments for emissi on reductions as needed for attainment in other nonattainment areas, such as the Antelope Valley and Western Mojave Desert, Sacramento, and V entura County, will be devel oped later and brought for Board consideration with SIPs for these regions.

The State’s SIP commitments co nsist of three components:

1. Commitment to achieve emission reductions by specific dates; 2. Commitment to propose defined new SIP measures; and 3. A long-term strategy commitment.

The total emission reductions and the obli gation to propose specific measures for Board consideration would become enfor ceable upon approval by U.S. EPA of the State Strategy and each district’s attainment plan. The commitments for emission reductions are calculated us ing the planning inventory described in Appendix A; progress will be tracked in the same inventory currency to assess compliance.

The total emission reductions from the new measures necessary to attain the federal standards are an enfor ceable State commitment in the SIP. While the proposed State Strategy includes estimate s of the emission r eductions from each of the individual new measures , it is important to note that the commitment of the State Strategy is to achieve the total em ission reductions necessary to attain the federal standards, which would be the aggregate of all existing and proposed new measures combined. Therefore, if a particular measure does not get its expected emission reductions, the State still commits to achieving the total aggregate emission reductions, whether th is is realized through additional reductions from the new m easures, or from alternat ive control measures or incentive programs.

For informational purposes, the tables below show the expected emission reductions from the propos ed new SIP measures in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley in 2014, 2020, and 2023. The first table shows the expected NOx and ROG emission reductions for South Coast and San Joaquin Valley for 2023, the year in which the emission reduction target must be met for the expected ozone attainment date of 2024 for these areas. The second table shows the expected NOx and ROG emissi on reductions for the two areas for 2020 to help illustrate the progress that will be made prior to the proposed 2024 attainment deadlines for the South Coas t and San Joaquin Valley. The third and fourth tables show the expected emissi ons reductions from NOx, ROG, SOx, and direct PM2.5 in the South Coast and S an Joaquin Valley in 2014, the year in which emission reduction targets must be met for the federal PM2.5 standard.April 26, 2007 59 Expected Emission Reductions fr om Proposed New SIP Measures (tons per day)

South Coast and San Joaquin Valley -- 2023

South Coast San Joaquin Valley Proposed New SIP Measures NOx ROG NOx ROG
Passenger Vehicles 7.1 10.5 2.1 3.3 Smog Check Improvements (BAR) 6.9 7.5 2.1 1.9 Expanded Vehicle Retirement 0.2 0.5 0.04 0.1 Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program -- 2.5 -- 1.3 Heavy-Duty Trucks 18.3 1.7 21.2 2.3 Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks 18.3 1.7 21.2 2.3
Goods Movement Sources 99.2 1.9 16.4 1.3 Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing & Clean Technology 30.8 -- -- -- Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel 39.9 -- -- -- Port Truck Modernization 7.0 -- -- -- Accelerated Intro. of Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives 15.6 1.9 16.4 1.3 Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft 5.9 NYQ -- NYQ Off-Road Equipment 13.9 1.9 5.4 0.6 Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp) 13.9 1.9 5.4 0.6 Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment NYQ NYQ NYQ NYQ
Other Off-Road Sources 2.4 24.0 0.6 11.4
New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats 2.4 17.6 0.6 5.3 Expanded Off-Road Rec. Vehicle Emission Standards -- 6.4 -- 6.1 Additional Evaporative Emission Standards -- NYQ -- NYQ Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks -- NYQ -- NYQ
Areawide Sources -- 13.7 -- 6.3 Consumer Products Program -- 13.7 -- 3.8 Pesticides: DPR Regulation -- NYQ -- 2.5 Emission Reductions from Proposed New Measures 141 54 46 25

NYQ = Not Yet Quantified. BAR = Bureau of Automoti ve Repair. DPR = Dept. of Pesticide Regulation.

Locomotives measure relies on U.S. EPA rulemaking and industry agreement to accelerate fleet turnover. Note: Emission reductions reflect the combined impact of regulations and supportive incentive programs. Emission reduction estimates for each proposed measure are shown for informational purposes only. Actual emission reductions from any particular measure may be greater than or le ss than the amounts shown.April 26, 2007 60 Expected Emission Reductions fr om Proposed New SIP Measures (tons per day)

South Coast and San Joaquin Valley -- 2020

South Coast San Joaquin Valley Proposed New SIP Measures NOx ROG NOx ROG
Passenger Vehicles 9.6 12.9 2.7 4.1 Smog Check Improvements (BAR) 8.3 8.7 2.4 2.2 Expanded Vehicle Retirement 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.3 Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program -- 3.0 -- 1.6 Heavy-Duty Trucks 26.9 2.6 30.2 3.3 Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks 26.9 2.6 30.2 3.3
Goods Movement Sources 87.1 1.8 15.6 1.2 Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing & Clean Technology 28.3 -- -- -- Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel 32.3 -- -- -- Port Truck Modernization 8.0 -- -- -- Accelerated Intro. of Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives 13.4 1.8 15.6 1.2 Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft 5.1 NYQ -- NYQ Off-Road Equipment 18.7 2.9 7.0 1.0 Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp) 18.7 2.9 7.0 1.0 Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment NYQ NYQ NYQ NYQ
Other Off-Road Sources 1.6 17.9 0.4 8.7
New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats 1.6 12.8 0.4 3.8 Expanded Off-Road Rec. Vehicle Emission Standards -- 5.1 -- 4.9 Additional Evaporative Emission Standards -- NYQ -- NYQ Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks -- NYQ -- NYQ
Areawide Sources -- 13.5 -- 6.1 Consumer Products Program -- 13.5 -- 3.6 Pesticides: DPR Regulation -- NYQ -- 2.5 Emission Reductions from Proposed New Measures 144 52 56 24

NYQ = Not Yet Quantified. BAR = Bureau of Automoti ve Repair. DPR = Dept. of Pesticide Regulation.

Locomotives measure relies on U.S. EPA rulemaking and industry agreement to accelerate fleet turnover. Note: Emission reductions reflect the combined impact of regulations and supportive incentive programs. Emission reduction estimates for each proposed measure are shown for informational purposes only. Actual emission reductions from any particular measure may be greater than or le ss than the amounts shown.April 26, 2007 61 Expected Emission Reductions fr om Proposed New SIP Measures (tons per day)

South Coast -- 2014

Direct Proposed New SIP Measures NOx ROG PM2.5 SOx

Passenger Vehicles 14.4 17.7 0.3 -- Smog Check Improvements (BAR) 12.0 10.5 0.2 -- Expanded Vehicle Retirement 2.4 2.8 0.05 -- Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program -- 4.4 -- -- Heavy-Duty Trucks 47.3 5.1 3.0 -- Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks 47.3 5.1 3.0 --
Goods Movement Sources 49.4 0.7 3.6 20.1 Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing & Clean Technology 18.5 -- 0.3 0.4 Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel 20.0 -- 2.4 19.7 Port Truck Modernization 2.0 -- 0.5 -- Accelerated Intro. of Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives 4.3 0.7 0.2 -- Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft 4.6 -- 0.2 -- Off-Road Equipment 10.5 2.7 2.6 -- Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp) 10.5 2.7 2.6 -- Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment NYQ NYQ NYQ --

Other Off-Road Sources 0.4 6.6 -- -- New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats 0.4 4.2 -- -- Expanded Off-Road Rec. Vehicle Emission Standards -- 2.4 -- -- Additional Evaporative Emission Standards -- NYQ -- NYQ Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks -- NYQ -- NYQ

Areawide Sources -- 12.9 -- -- Consumer Products Program -- 12.9 -- -- Pesticides: DPR Regulation -- NYQ -- -- Emission Reductions from Proposed New Measures 122 46 9 20

NYQ = Not Yet Quantified. BAR = Bureau of Automoti ve Repair. DPR = Dept. of Pesticide Regulation.

Locomotives measure relies on U.S. EPA rulemaking and industry agreement to accelerate fleet turnover. Note: Emission reductions reflect the combined impact of regulations and supportive incentive programs. Emission reduction estimates for each proposed measure are shown for informational purposes only. Actual emission reductions from any particular m easure may be greater than or less than the amounts shown.April 26, 2007 62 Expected Emission Reductions fr om Proposed New SIP Measures (tons per day)

San Joaquin Valley -- 2014

Direct Proposed New SIP Measures NOx ROG PM2.5 SOx

Passenger Vehicles 3.8 6.5 0.1 -- Smog Check Improvements (BAR) 3.3 2.9 0.05 -- Expanded Vehicle Retirement 0.5 0.7 0.01 -- Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program -- 2.9 -- -- Heavy-Duty Trucks 61.4 6.4 3.6 -- Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks 61.4 6.4 3.6 --
Goods Movement Sources 7.2 0.5 0.2 -- Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing & Clean Technology -- -- -- -- Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel -- -- -- --
Port Truck Modernization -- -- -- -- Accelerated Intro. of Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives 7.2 0.5 0.2 -- Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft -- NYQ -- -- Off-Road Equipment 3.7 0.9 0.8 -- Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (over 25hp) 3.7 0.9 0.8 -- Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment NYQ NYQ NYQ --
Other Off-Road Sources 0.1 3.5 -- -- New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats 0.1 1.3 -- -- Expanded Off-Road Rec. Vehicle Emission Standards -- 2.2 -- -- Additional Evaporative Emission Standards -- NYQ -- NYQ Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks -- NYQ -- NYQ
Areawide Sources -- 5.7 -- -- Consumer Products Program -- 3.2 -- -- Pesticides: DPR Regulation -- 2.5 -- -- Emission Reductions from Proposed New Measures 76 23 5 0

NYQ = Not Yet Quantified. BAR = Bureau of Automoti ve Repair. DPR = Dept. of Pesticide Regulation.

Locomotives measure relies on U.S. EPA rulemaking and industry agreement to accelerate fleet turnover. Note: Emission reductions reflect the combined impact of regulations and supportive incentive programs. Emission reduction estimates for each proposed measure are shown for informational purposes only. Actual emission reductions from any particular m easure may be greater than or less than the amounts shown.April 26, 2007 63 Commitments to Reduce Emissions

The tables below describe the emission reduction commitment proposal for Board approval. ARB staff proposes to commit to achieve the emission reductions set forth in these tables, by the dates indicated in the table on Page 65 entitled, “Schedule for Board Consi deration of Proposed ARB Rulemaking.” The reductions may be achieved through a combination of actions, including regulations, incentives, and ot her enforceable mechanisms.

Summary of Emission Reducti on Commitments – South Coast

Year NOx ROG Direct PM2.5 SOx

2014 122 46 9 20

2020 1 144 52 -- --

2023 141 54 -- --

2023 CAA 182(e)(5) measures 241 2 40 2
-- --

1 The 2020 commitment in the South Coast is necessary to provide for attainment in the downwind

nonattainment areas.
2 The reductions of NOx and ROG from 182(e)(5) meas ures will be reassessed as new SIPs are developed

and revised.

Summary of Emission Reduction Co mmitments – San Joaquin Valley

Year NOx ROG Direct PM2.5 SOx

2014 76 23 5 0

2020 56 24 -- --

2023 46 25 -- --

2023 CAA 182(e)(5) measures 81 1
-- 1
-- --

1 The reductions of NOx and ROG from 182(e)(5) measur es will be reassessed as new SIPs are developed

and revised.

Summary of Emission Reduction Commitments – Coachella Valley

Year NOx ROG

2018 7 2April 26, 2007 64 Commitment to Propose Defined New SIP Measures

In addition to the commitment to r educe emissions by 2014, 2020 and 2023, ARB staff also proposes to co mmit to submit to the Board and propose for adoption the list of proposed new ARB control measur es shown in the table below. The Board shall take action on or before the dat es set forth in the following table. Such action by the Board may include any action within its discretion.

Schedule for Board Consideration of Proposed ARB Rulemaking

Proposed New SIP Measures Year Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline Program Cleaner Main Ship Fuel Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft Enhanced Vapor Recovery for Above Ground Storage Tanks 2007

Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks
Port Truck Modernization Ship Auxiliary Engines Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives (Enforceable Agreement) Consumer Products Program I 2008

Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment
New Emission Standards for Recreational Boats Expanded Off-Road Recreational Vehicle Emission Standards Additional Evaporative Emission Standards 2009-2010

Consumer Products Program II 2010-2012April 26, 2007 65 State Strategy Proposed New SIP Measures Implementing Agency – Expected Action – Expected Implementation

Proposed New SIP Measures Implementing Agency Expected Action ExpectedImplementation Passenger Vehicles Smog Check Improvements BAR 2007-2008 By 2010 Expanded Vehicle Retirement ARB/BAR 2008-2014 2008-2014 Modifications to Reformulated Gasoline

Program ARB 2007 Phase-in starting 2010
Trucks Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks ARB 2008 2010-2015
Goods Movement Sources Auxiliary Ship Engine Cold Ironing and

Other Clean Technology EPA/ARB/ Local 2007-2008 Phase-in starting 2010
Fuel: 2007 2007-2010 Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel EPA/ARB Local Engines: 2009 Phase-in starting 2010 Port Truck Modernization ARB/Local 2007-2008 2008-2020 Accelerated Introduction of Cleaner

Line-Haul Locomotives EPA/ARB 2007-2008 Starting in 2012
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft ARB 2007 2009-2018 Off-Road Equipment
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment ARB 2007 Phase-in starting 2008 Cleaner In-Use Agricultural Equipment ARB 2009-2010 TBD Other Off-Road Sources New Emission Standards for

Recreational Boats ARB 2009-2010 2012-2013
Expanded Off-Road Recreational Vehicle Emission Standards ARB By 2010 2012-2015
Enhanced Vapor Recovery for Above

Ground Storage Tanks ARB 2007 Phase-in starting 2008 Additional Evaporative Emission

Standards ARB By 2010 2010-2012

AREAWIDE SOURCES 2007-2008 By 2010 Consumer Products Program ARB 2010-2012 By 2012-2014 DPR Pesticide Regulation DPR 2008 2008

DPR = Department of Pesticide Regulation. BAR = Bureau of Automotive Repair
TBD = To Be DeterminedApril 26, 2007 66 Commitment to Reduce Emissions via Long-Term Strategy

Consistent with section 182(e )(5) of the federal Clean Ai r Act, this SIP includes long-term commitments to achieve the la st increment of emission reductions necessary to meet attainment goals in the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley. As the State agency charged with ensuring Ca lifornia’s SIP compliance, ARB is ultimately responsible for ensuring the nec essary measures are identified no later than 2020 (three years prior to the attainment year) a nd the emission reductions achieved by 2023.

After adoption of the State Strategy, ARB st aff proposes to initiate a coordinated government, private, and public effort to establish emission goals for critical mobile and stationary emi ssion source categories. Following the setting of emission goals, ARB will st art an ongoing public process to assess technology advancement opportunities for the critical categories. ARB staff will periodically brief the Board at public meetings on em erging emission reduction opportunities, promising technologies, and the progress made in developing long-term emission reduction measures. As ARB staff identif ies feasible technology-forcing emission reduction measures, staff will propose those measures to the Board for inclusion into the SIP.

No later than 2020, ARB and the two air districts will prepare a revision to the 8-hour Ozone SIP that (1) reflects any modifications to the 2023 emission reduction target based on updated science, and (2) identifies any additional strategies, including the implemen ting agencies, needed to achieve the necessary emissions reductions by 2023. If the specific measures developed to satisfy the long-term obligation affect on-road motor vehicle emissions, we will work with the air districts and transpor tation planning agencies to revise the transportation conformity budgets accordingly.

South Coast: After accounting for the antic ipated benefits of both adopted and new defined State and local measures, the 2003 SIP demonstrates a need for another 281 tpd ROG and NOx reductions from long-term measures. This represents 24 percent of t he total reductions needed by 2023. We believe that this gap can be bridged through a cooperativ e effort by the local, State and federal agencies responsible for specific emission sources. This effort should focus on how to most effectively achi eve the additional reductions, considering the availability and cost of potential controls.

San Joaquin Valley: After accounting for the anticipated benefits of both adopted and new defined State and local measures, the State Strategy demonstrates a need for another 81 t pd NOx reductions from long-term measures. This represents 13 percent of the total NOx and ROG reductions needed by 2023. We believe that this gap can be bridged through a cooperative effort by the local, State and federal agenc ies responsible for specific emission sources. This effort should focus on how to most effectively achieve the additional reductions, considering the availa bility and cost of potential controls.April 26, 2007 67 Role of Funding and Incentive Programs

Over the past 40 years, California has st eadily improved air quality in the face of tremendous economic and population growth. T he vast majority of that progress has come from effective regulations. Accordingly, ARB st aff expects State and federal regulations to play the primary role in implementing the State Strategy. In the regulatory paradigm, polluting sour ces pay for the necessary emission controls as part of doing business. Regulated industries may pass these costs on to consumers in the form of higher prices, although competition and other factors may prevent some companies from recouping all of their control costs. Low-interest loans with extended payment periods are available to aid smaller businesses that need upfront capital to comply.

In recent years, regulatory program s have been supplemented with financial incentives to accelerate voluntary acti ons, such as replacing older equipment. Incentive programs like the Carl Moyer Pr ogram are both popular and effective. They also help to demonstrate emerging technologies that then can be used to set a tougher emissions benchmark for regul atory requirements. Most of the existing incentive programs are designed to pay for the incr emental cost between what is required by regulation and advanced technology that exceeds that level. The incentive programs are publicly funded through fees paid by California vehicle owners as part of their annual regi strations, smog inspections or new tire purchases. California is currently inve sting up to $140 million per year to clean up older, higher emission sources.

The support for clean air incentive funding from Governor Schwarzenegger, the Legislature, and California’s voting public is reflected in the passage on November 7, 2006, of the Highway Safe ty, Traffic Reduction, Air Quality, and Port Security Bond Act of 2006. The B ond Act includes $1 billion to accelerate the cleanup of air pollution caused by goods movement activities in California. With appropriation by the Legislature, and s ubject to such conditions and criteria contained in a statute that it will enact, ARB will appropriate this money to fund emission reductions from activities rela ted to the movement of freight along California’s trade corridors.

Federal Actions Needed

Measures in the State Strategy to reduce emissions from interstate and international sources rely on the federal government to develop more stringent emission standards and to ensure these st andards go into effect as soon as possible. Emission reductions from locomotives, off-road equipment, marine auxiliary engines, and harbor craft are a si gnificant part of t he State Strategy. Proposed State measures would accelerate the introduction of cleaner engines and equipment, but the emission reductions re ly on the availability of cleaner new engines.

ARB is proposing several measures to reduce ship emissions through a combination of regulations, incentives , and actions by ports and the privateApril 26, 2007 68 sector. However, national and internati onal action to clean up shipping fleets is also needed to fully realize our clean air goals. And aircraft emissions, which will become one of the South Coast’s t op five NOx sources by 2020, are unaddressed in the State Strategy due to the lack of effective international standards.

California must rely on U.S. EPA to r epresent its interest s before foreign or international regulatory bodies that hav e the ability to reduce emissions from international goods movement sources. In this role, U.S. EPA should advocate for the adoption of cleaner ship emissi on standards and less polluting practices by the International Maritime Organization.

Possible Federal Actions

Adopt more stringent standards for sources under federal control. U.S. EPA should move as fast as possible to lowe r standards for sources under its control, keeping in mind California’s air qua lity challenge and attainment deadlines. There are categories of emission source s that we do not have the authority to regulate at the State level. We also do not have the ability to regulate sources in markets outside of Californi a that then operate within California. Not only would federal action lower emissions for new sour ces, but it would allow State and local actions to lower emissions from existi ng sources by setting in-use rules that speed up the integration of the cleaner engines and technology into California fleets. These sources include: ships, locomotives, harbor craft, aircraft, and off-road equipment and vehicles.

Federal incentives for cleaner technology. Federal funding sources for clean air projects, as well as federal tax incent ives promoting the manufacture, sale, and purchase of cleaner vehicles, equipment, and technology, could enhance California’s aggressive incentive programs.April 26, 2007 69 Ozone Attainment Demonstrations

The table on the following page illustrates how the State Strategy will meet the emission reduction targets for ozone in t he South Coast and San Joaquin Valley.

This document has presented ARB staff’s assessment of the St ate Strategy for the San Joaquin Valley and the South Coas t in detail. ARB staff has also evaluated the impact of the propos ed State Strategy on all 15 ozone nonattainment areas. For the remaini ng areas, modeling results and air quality data analyses show that, with the conti nued reductions in emissions on track to occur in each area, all will be able to show attainment by 2021 or earlier with identified measures.

ARB staff expects the districts withi n the Sacramento nonattainment area will request a reclassification from seri ous to severe and will need additional reductions from ARB’s proposed new measures to attain by 2019. San Diego is projected to attain by its deadline, while Ventura may consider a reclassification to either Serious or Severe. Trans port impacted areas, es pecially downwind of the South Coast—the Antelope Valley, the Mojave Desert, and the Coachella Valley—will need to rely on new reductions that will occur upwind. We expect the local districts to request reclassi fication to get the needed time. Areas downwind of the Central Valley—Wes tern Nevada, Amador, Calaveras, Tuolumne, Mariposa, and Kern Counties—are projected to attain by their 2014 deadline with already adopted measures. Air quality modeling for these areas is new and ARB staff is continuing to evaluat e the results. Finally, three areas—the Bay Area, Butte County, and the Sutter Butt es—now attain the ozone standard.

Attainment demonstrations for these areas will be included in the individual ARB staff reports for each area.April 26, 2007 70 Setting the Ozone Emission Reduction Target (tons per day)

Nonattainment Area

South Coast (2023) San Joaquin Valley (2023)

NOx ROG NOx ROG

2006 Emissions Inventory 972 732 650 454

Carrying Capacity 114 420 160 342

Emission Reduction Target 858 312 490 112

(2006 Emissions Inventory) – (Carrying Capacity) = (Emission Reduction Target)

2006 Emissions Inventory = Amount of ozone-forming emissions. Carrying Capacity = Pollutant emissions limit that ensures air quality standards are met. Emission Reduction Target = Amount of emissions that must be reduced to meet the standard.

Meeting the Ozone Emission Reduction Target (tons per day)

Nonattainment Area

South Coast (2023) San Joaquin Valley (2023)

NOx ROG NOx ROG

Emission Reduction Target 858 312 490 112

Emission Reductions from Adopted SIP Measures 467 199 355 43

Emission Reductions from New Local Measures 9 19 8 47

Emission Reductions from New State Measures 141 54 46 25

Long-Term Measures 241 40 81 --

Total Reductions 858 312 490 115

Emission Reductions from Adopted SIP Measures = Emissions reduced from measures adopted through 2006. Emission Reductions from New Measures = Emissions reduced from measures in the State Strategy or new local measures adopted after 2006. Long-Term Measures = Emissions reduced from measures adopted after 2020 that rely on new or evolving technology, as allowed in section 182(e)(5) of the Clean Air Act.April 26, 2007 71 Tracking Progress

The Clean Air Act requires that SIPs show there will be steady progress in reducing emissions during the years l eading to the attainment date, called reasonable further progress, equal to about 3 percent per year. (Each nonattainment area’s reasonable further progress is illustrated in the local plans and in Appendix D.) Along with tracking progre ss to meet the SIP requi rements, ARB will have a stringent tracking process for strategies under its jurisdiction. There will be periodic updates to ARB’s governing board on the SIP’s New Strategies. In addition, other ARB programs vital to the SIP have thei r own deadlines and tracking schedules. The goal of ARB’s Diesel Risk Reduction Pl an is to reduce the health risk from diesel emissions 75 percent by 2010 and 85 percent by 2020. The Emission Reduction Plan for Ports and Goods Movement in California has specific emission reduction milestones in 2010, 2015 and 2020. ARB is committed to achieving all of its goals in these plans and the SIP and will be tracking progress on each.

Contingency Measures Requirement

The federal Clean Air Act requires attain ment plans to identify “contingency measures” to be implemented if nonattain ment areas (except those designated “marginal”) fail to meet reasonable further progress requirements or to attain the federal air quality standards on time. T hese contingency measures are to take effect without further ARB or air district action, and thus must be measures that have already been adopted when the SI P is submitted to U.S. EPA.

The bulk of emission reductions needed to attain the federal standards are achieved through the mobile source measur es in the State Strategy’s existing program. As we have noted pr eviously, California’s mobile source program has been very successful in reducing emissions in California and represents the foundation supporting attainm ent of the federal standa rds. ARB has a well established history of adopti ng and implementing mobile s ource control regulations on-time or early. As a result, we expect to achieve and even exceed reasonable further progress goals without the need for contingency measures. However, the Clean Air Act requirements necessitate that we provide c ontingency measures regardless of our expected progress in r educing emissions toward the attainment goals.

For areas designed basic, moderate, and serious, reasonable further progress can be demonstrated with already adopted measures and therefore contingency measures are not necessary. For ar eas designated severe and extreme, the emission reductions from adopted measures that go beyond the re asonable further progress requirements will constitute Calif ornia’s contingency measure commitment implemented in the unlikely event that the State does not m eet the reasonable further progress goals.

A more detailed analysis of the conti ngency measure commitment is included in Appendix D.