Short-term Enrollment

in Postsecondary

Education

Student Background and

Institutional Differences in Reasons

for Early Departure, 1996–98

Postsecondary Education

Descriptive Analysis Reports

U.S. Department of Education

Office of Educational

Research and Improvement

NCES 2003–153

National Center for

Education Statistics
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
U.S. Department of Education 

Office of Educational 

Research and Improvement 

NCES 2003–153 

Short-term Enrollment 

in Postsecondary 

Education 

Student Background and 

Institutional Differences in 

Reasons for Early Departure, 

1996–98 

Postsecondary Education 

Descriptive Analysis Reports 

November 2002 

Ellen M. Bradburn 

MPR Associates, Inc. 

C. Dennis Carroll 

Project Officer 

National Center for 

Education Statistics 
U.S. Department of Education 

Rod Paige 

Secretary 

Office of Educational Research and Improvement 

Grover J. Whitehurst 

Assistant Secretary 

National Center for Education Statistics 

Gary W. Phillips 

Deputy Commissioner 

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and 

reporting data related to education in the United States and other nations. It fulfills a congressional mandate 

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complete, and accurate indicators of education status and trends; and report timely, useful, and high quality 

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like to hear from you. Please direct your comments to: 

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 Washington, DC 20006-5651 

November 2002 

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Suggested Citation 

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Short-Term Enrollment in Postsecondary 

Education: Student Background and Institutional Differences in Reasons for Early Departure, 1996–98, NCES 

2003–153, by Ellen M. Bradburn. Project Officer: C. Dennis Carroll. Washington, DC: 2002. 

For ordering information on this report, write: 

U.S. Department of Education 

ED Pubs 

P.O. Box 1398 

Jessup, MD 20794-1398 

or call toll free 1-877-4ED-PUBS 

Content Contact: 

Aurora D’Amico 

(202) 502-7334 

Aurora.D’Amico@ed.gov
iii 

Executive Summary

This report builds on previous studies of early 

attrition1

 from postsecondary education by 

providing a more comprehensive look at students’ 

reasons for early total departure from 

postsecondary education.2

 Using the 1996/98 

Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal 

Study (BPS:96/98) to examine attrition in the first 

3 years of postsecondary education, this study 

addresses two main issues: student background 

characteristics associated with departure without a 

credential from postsecondary education, and 

among students who did leave, the reasons they 

gave for their departure. With respect to both 

issues, this report focuses on understanding how 

the process of departure from college differs for 

students who begin at 2-year compared with 4-

year institutions. The analysis includes only 

students who began at these two types of 

institutions, and it is also restricted to students at 

public or private not-for-profit institutions, rather 

than for-profit institutions. The following provides 

a summary of the key findings for each of the five 

main questions answered in the report. 

 

1

In this report, “attrition,” “departure,” and “leaving college” 

all refer to 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students 

departing without receiving a credential and not returning by 

spring 1998. This pattern is also described as “early attrition” 

or “short-term enrollment.” 

2

Total (or system) departure, in which students leave 

postsecondary education altogether, is distinct from 

institutional departure, in which students leave one institution 

but enroll at another (Tinto 1993). This report only examines 

departure from postsecondary education entirely (i.e., total 

departure). 

What proportion of students left 

college without a credential and did 

not return in the first 3 years?

While almost one-third (32 percent) of 

beginning postsecondary students left without a 

credential within 3 academic years (figure A), 

students who began at 4-year institutions were less 

likely than those who began at 2-year institutions 

to do so (17–19 percent versus 35–44 percent). 

The percentage of 1995–96 beginning 

postsecondary students who left without a 

credential and did not return by spring 1998 was 

greatest in the first year of enrollment and smallest 

in the third year of enrollment. Among students 

who began at public 4-year institutions, fewer left 

in the third year than in the first or second year of 

enrollment, but no differences were detected 

between departure rates in the first 2 years. No 

differences were detected by year in the 

percentages of students beginning at private notfor-profit 4-year institutions who left. The 

percentage of public 2-year college students who 

left school within the first year was larger than that 

from any other type of institution. 

What factors were associated with 

early departure from postsecondary 

education by institution type? 

A number of student characteristics were 

associated with departure from public 4-year, 

private not-for-profit 4-year, and public 2-year 

institutions. While many characteristics were
Executive Summary 

iv 

associated with departure from all three types of 

institutions, some differences were detected only 

among students from public and private not-forprofit 4-year institutions. 

Students’ Educational Expectations 

Not all students plan to complete a degree when 

they enter college. Among all beginning 

postsecondary students in 1995–96, the 

expectations and objectives of students who began 

at public 2-year institutions differed from those of 

students who began at 4-year institutions. Even 

among students who began at public 2-year 

institutions, educational expectations were 

relatively high (i.e., higher than could be 

accomplished at a 2-year institution): 33 percent 

eventually expected to complete a bachelor’s 

degree, and another 29 percent expected to 

complete an advanced degree, i.e., a degree 

beyond the bachelor’s. But students who began at 

public 2-year institutions were less likely than 

students who began at 4-year institutions (59 

percent at both public and private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions) to expect to complete an 

advanced degree. They were also more likely to 

expect that their eventual educational attainment 

would be less than a bachelor’s degree (16 percent 

versus 1–2 percent of those who began at 4-year 

institutions). Finally, students who began at 

community colleges expressed a range of reasons 

for enrolling at such an institution: 38 percent 

indicated that they chose that institution to prepare 

for transfer to a 4-year college or university; 22 

percent chose the institution to gain job skills; and 

another 16 percent enrolled for personal 

enrichment. 

Among students at all three types of 

institutions, both the eventual educational 

Figure A.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a credential and did not return by spring

Figure A.—1998, by first institution type and last year of attendance

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:96/98).

13 6

7

7

7 6

16

24

15

7

8

10 13

4

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Public 4-year Private not-forprofit 4-yearPublic 2-year Private not-forprofit 2-year

Percent

Left 1997–98

Left 1996–97

Left 1995–96

32

35

44

17

19
Executive Summary 

v 

expectations of students and their initial degree 

objectives at the first institution attended were 

associated with departure from postsecondary 

education within 3 years. Among students who 

identified the level of education they ultimately 

expected to complete, those who identified higher 

expected levels of education were less likely than 

those who identified lower expected levels to leave 

college (figure B). In addition, those who did not 

know their expected eventual educational outcome 

were more likely than those who expected to 

complete advanced degrees to leave within 3 

years. 

Furthermore, initial degree objectives from the 

first institution at which the student enrolled were 

associated with departure from postsecondary 

education among students at all three types of 

institutions, with lower objectives generally 

associated with a higher rate of departure. For 

example, among students who began at public 4-

year institutions, 40 percent of those whose degree 

objectives at their first institution did not include a 

bachelor’s degree left postsecondary education 

within 3 years, compared with 16 percent of those 

who did plan to get a bachelor’s degree there. This 

relationship was found even after taking into 

account many other factors associated with 

departure. 

Figure B.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a credential and did not return

Figure B.—by spring 1998, by education expectations and first institution type

#Too small to report.

NOTE: Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked during

the base year (1995–96) interview.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:96/98).

60

48

22

24

12

13

34

28

26

42

58

(#)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Public 2-year

Private not-for-profit 4-year

Public 4-year

Percent

Don’t know

Less than bachelor’s

Bachelor’s

Advanced degree
Executive Summary 

vi 

Other Characteristics

Lower academic performance during the first 

year of enrollment was associated with a higher 

rate of attrition at all three types of institutions, 

even when taking into account other factors related 

to departure from postsecondary education. 

Transfer between institutions and changes in 

number of dependents from their initial entry into 

college until 1998 were also associated with their 

departure among students who began at public 

institutions, even when other variables were taken 

into consideration. Those who transferred to 

another institution were less likely to have left 

college. In addition, students from all three types 

of institutions who had more dependents in 1998 

than when they began college had higher rates of 

attrition than those who never had dependents. For 

example, among students who began at public 2-

year institutions, 61 percent of those who 

subsequently had children left college by 1998, 

compared with 37 percent of those who never had 

children. Thus, changes such as these that can 

occur during students’ postsecondary enrollment 

may supersede the effects of their initial 

enrollment characteristics. 

Furthermore, when examining nontraditional 

student characteristics,3

 students with 

nontraditional characteristics were often more 

likely to leave within 3 years than their 

counterparts without these characteristics. For 

example, among students who began at public 4-

year institutions, those who delayed postsecondary 

enrollment more than a year after high school were 

more likely than those who had gone directly to 

college (33 versus 15 percent) to depart. Among 

 

3

Nontraditional student characteristics include the following: 

being 24 years old or older, delaying postsecondary 

enrollment by more than a year after high school, enrolling 

less than full time, being independent, working full time, 

being currently or previously married, being a single parent, 

having dependents, or not having a regular high school 

diploma. 

students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year 

colleges and universities, 62 percent of those who 

had ever been married when first enrolled had 

departed within 3 years without a credential, 

compared with 15 percent of those who had never 

been married. At public 2-year institutions, 

students who worked part time or did not work 

while they were enrolled were less likely than 

those who worked full time (33 and 43 percent, 

respectively, versus 59 percent) to leave college. 

These relationships were found even when taking 

into account other factors associated with 

departure. 

Some characteristics, however, were associated 

with departure from 4-year institutions, but not 

public 2-year institutions. Students facing a lower 

price of attendance were more likely to depart 

from 4-year institutions, while this relationship 

was not found among students who began at 

public 2-year institutions after taking other factors 

into account. In addition, among students who 

began at 4-year institutions, attending colleges 

with higher graduation rates was associated with 

lower attrition. However, this relationship was not 

detected among students who began at public 2-

year institutions. 

What reasons did these short-term 

enrollees give for their departure? 

The 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students 

who left by 1998 without a credential gave a 

variety of reasons for their departure (figure C). 

Students were generally more likely to say that 

they left because they needed to work or to give 

other financial reasons for their departure than to 

give other types of reasons. About one-quarter (26 

percent) of short-term enrollees cited needing to 

work as a reason for their departure, and 16 

percent identified other financial reasons. Ten 

percent said that they had completed their desired 
Executive Summary 

vii 

classes or that they had conflicts at home or 

personal problems; 8 percent cited a change in 

their family status; 7 percent said they were taking 

time off from their studies; 6 percent reported that 

they were not satisfied or that they had conflicts 

with their jobs; and 4 percent identified academic 

problems as a cause of their departure. 

Among students who left, those who began at 

4-year institutions were more likely than those 

who began at public 2-year institutions to say that 

they left because of academic problems (9 versus 2 

percent) or a change in family status (12 versus 6 

percent). Those who began at public 2-year 

institutions were more likely than those who began 

at 4-year institutions to say they left because they 

were done taking the classes they wanted (12 

versus 5 percent) or because they needed to work 

(29 versus 17 percent). 

What other characteristics of shortterm enrollees were associated with 

their reasons for departure? 

Among beginning postsecondary students who 

left early, women were more likely than men to 

say that they left because of a change in family 

status or because of conflicts at home or personal 

problems. In contrast, men were more likely than 

women to say they left because of academic 

problems or because they needed to work. Higher 

income students who left were less likely than 

their lower income counterparts to say that they 

left because of a change in family status. In 

addition, students in the middle two income 

quartiles were more likely than those in the highest 

quartile to leave because they needed to work (30 

versus 13 percent). 

Although short-term enrollees cited academic 

problems relatively infrequently as a reason for 

their departure, the evidence above showed that 

first-year grades were consistently associated with 

Figure C.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various reasons for

Figure C.—their departure

NOTE: Respondents could give up to three reasons, including other reasons not listed here. Sixty-one percent identified only one of these

reasons, and 24 percent did not cite any of these reasons.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal

Study (BPS:96/98).

10

6 4 7 8 10

6

26

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

Academic

problems

Done

taking

desired

classes

Not

satisfied

Taking time

off

Change in

family

status

Conflicts at

home/

personal

problems

Conflicts

with job/

military

Needed to

work

Other

financial

reasons

Percent
Executive Summary 

viii 

early attrition in all institution types. There was 

some evidence that students without nontraditional 

characteristics were more likely than those with 

these characteristics to cite academic problems as 

a cause of departure from postsecondary 

education. Students who enrolled full time during 

their first year were more likely than students who 

had mixed patterns of attendance or who attended 

part time to report academic problems as a cause 

of their early departure (7 versus 0.2 and 2 percent, 

respectively). In addition, short-term enrollees 

who worked more hours while enrolled during 

their first year of postsecondary education were 

less likely than those who worked fewer hours to 

say they left because of academic problems. 

Were differences in reasons for 

departure by institution type found 

after controlling for other 

characteristics? 

The results suggest that the reasons for leaving 

differ between students who began at public 2-year 

institutions and those who began at 4-year 

institutions. These differences may be related to 

the different student populations at 2-year 

compared with 4-year institutions. For example, 

reasons given for departure varied between 

students with and without various nontraditional 

characteristics, and these students also differed 

with respect to the types of institutions in which 

they began their postsecondary education. 

Students with nontraditional characteristics (such 

as not having a regular high school diploma or 

being financially independent) who left were less 

likely than students without these characteristics to 

report that they left because of academic problems, 

as did short-term enrollees who began at 2-year 

institutions compared with those who began at 4-

year institutions. On the other hand, students with 

nontraditional characteristics who left 

postsecondary education without a credential were 

more likely than those without these 

characteristics to say they were done taking the 

classes they wanted, as were short-term enrollees 

who began at public 2-year institutions compared 

with those who began at 4-year institutions. 

Among all beginning students as well as among 

those who left early, students from public 2-year 

institutions were more likely than those from 4-

year institutions to have nontraditional student 

characteristics. 

After taking into account other factors 

associated with various reasons for departure, 

short-term enrollees who began at public 2-year 

institutions were still less likely than those who 

began at 4-year institutions to say they left because 

of a change in family status and more likely to say 

they left because they needed to work. In the 

multivariate analyses, no differences were found in 

the rates at which short-term enrollees from 

different types of institutions reported leaving 

because of academic problems or because they had 

completed the classes they wanted. However, in 

both cases, initial degree objectives were related to 

leaving: those who planned to complete a 

bachelor’s degree at their first institution were 

more likely to leave for academic reasons than 

those who planned to complete an associate’s 

degree, and those who did not plan to obtain any 

credential from their first institution were more 

likely than others to leave because they were done 

taking the classes they wanted. 

Other Results 

 Among students who left college within 3 

years of first enrollment, some of the reasons they 

gave were consistent with their characteristics. For 

example, middle-income students were more 

likely than high income students to say they left 

because they needed to work. Students who had 
Executive Summary 

ix 

never intended to complete a credential of any 

kind from the institution where they began were 

more likely than those seeking a degree or 

certificate to indicate that they left because they 

were finished. However, this reason was not given 

by even a majority of those with no degree goals, 

suggesting that other factors may have deterred 

them. 

Relatively few student characteristics were 

associated with leaving because of a change in 

family status. However, students who had more 

dependents in 1998 than when they began 

postsecondary enrollment were more likely than 

others to say they left because of a change in 

family status. In addition, women were more likely 

than men to cite this cause. These results are 

consistent with other literature on this reason for 

leaving college (Bonham and Luckie 1993). 

While academic problems were not frequently 

cited as a cause for student departure, students 

who had lower grades were more likely to give 

this reason than those with higher grades. 

However, this relationship was not found once 

other factors were taken into account. In the 

multivariate model, not working while enrolled 

and full-time enrollment were associated with 

leaving for academic reasons. These results 

suggest that leaving because of academic problems 

is more common among students who do not have 

nontraditional characteristics.
x 

Foreword 

This report describes short-term enrollment in postsecondary education—that is, students 

who left within 3 academic years of their first entry into postsecondary education without 

earning a credential and without returning. Factors associated with departure in the first 3 years 

are examined separately for students who began their postsecondary education in public 4-year, 

private not-for-profit 4-year, and public 2-year institutions, including multivariate analyses of 

departure for these three groups. In addition, this report examines the reasons that students who 

left gave for their departure. It also explores how these reasons are related to background 

characteristics such as demographic, academic, financial aid, and institutional characteristics. 

This report uses data from the 1996–98 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal 

Study (BPS:96/98). The BPS survey is the longitudinal component of the 1996 National 

Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS:96), a nationally representative sample that includes 

students enrolled in all types of postsecondary institutions, ranging from 4-year colleges and 

universities to less-than-2-year vocational institutions. The BPS:96/98 cohort consists of students 

who enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time during the 1995–96 academic year. 

The cohort was followed up in spring 1998. This and other reports using this data set can be 

accessed and downloaded from the NCES Web Site (nces.ed.gov). 

The estimates presented in the report were produced using the NCES Data Analysis System 

(DAS), a microcomputer application that allows users to specify and generate tables, for the 

BPS:96/98 study. The DAS produces the design-adjusted standard errors necessary for testing 

the statistical significance of differences among estimates. Researchers are encouraged to use the 

BPS:96/98 data for their own analysis as well. For more information on the DAS and analysis 

with BPS:96/98, readers should consult appendix B of this report. 
xi 

Acknowledgments 

The author appreciates the contributions of staff members at MPR Associates, NCES and 

other U.S. Department of Education offices, and nongovernmental agencies for their 

contributions to the production of this report. At MPR Associates, Laura Horn contributed both 

detailed comments on drafts and general oversight of the report, and Sarah Calderon provided 

valuable and timely research assistance. Expert assistance in the production of the report was 

supplied by Wes Nations, Francesca Tussing, and Barbara Kridl. Andrea Livingston and Robin 

Henke provided helpful editorial and substantive reviews. 

Outside of MPR Associates, a number of reviewers strengthened the report. At the National 

Center for Education Statistics, C. Dennis Carroll, Paula Knepper, Karen O’Conor, Steve 

Broughman, and Tom Snyder all provided helpful feedback. Outside of NCES, thoughtful 

reviews were also provided by Dan Goldenberg, Karen Wenk, and Kent Phillippe, and the 

editors of the Education Statistics Quarterly. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
xiii 

Table of Contents 

 Page 

Executive Summary .................................................................................................................. iii 

Foreword.................................................................................................................................... x 

Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................... xi 

List of Tables.............................................................................................................................. xiv 

List of Figures............................................................................................................................ xviii 

Introduction............................................................................................................................... 1 

Data and Measurement Issues............................................................................................... 3 

Organization of This Report.................................................................................................. 4

Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education .................................................................... 7 

What Proportion of Students Left College Without a Credential and Did Not Return 

Within 3 Years?.................................................................................................................. 7 

What Factors Were Associated With Early Departure?........................................................ 8 

Summary ............................................................................................................................... 49 

Reasons for Early Departure ................................................................................................... 51 

What Reasons Did Short-Term Enrollees Give for Their Departure? .................................. 51 

What Factors Were Associated With Reasons for Early Departure?.................................... 53 

Did Institution Type Differences in Reasons for Early Departure Persist? .......................... 63 

Summary ............................................................................................................................... 74 

Conclusion.................................................................................................................................. 77 

References.................................................................................................................................. 79 

Appendix A—Glossary ............................................................................................................. 81 

Appendix B—Technical Notes ................................................................................................. 93 
xiv 

List of Tables 

Table Page 

1 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a 

credential and did not return by spring 1998, by first institution type............................ 7 

2-A Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by student 

background characteristics .............................................................................................. 9 

2-B Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by 

student background characteristics.................................................................................. 10 

2-C Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by student 

background characteristics .............................................................................................. 11 

3-A Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by nontraditional 

student characteristics ..................................................................................................... 13

3-B Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by 

nontraditional student characteristics.............................................................................. 14 

3-C Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by nontraditional 

student characteristics ..................................................................................................... 15

4 Percentage of employed 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without 

a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by first institution type and primary 

role while employed in 1995–96..................................................................................... 17 

5-A Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by academic 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 21 

5-B Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by 

academic characteristics.................................................................................................. 23 
List of Tables 

xv 

Table Page 

5-C Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by academic 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 24 

6-A Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by financial aid 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 26 

6-B Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by 

financial aid characteristics ............................................................................................. 27 

6-C Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by financial aid 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 28 

7-A Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by institution-related 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 29 

7-B Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by 

institution-related characteristics..................................................................................... 31 

7-C Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by institution-related 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 32 

8-A Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by change in family 

and education circumstances by 1998............................................................................. 33 

8-B Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by 

change in family and education circumstances by 1998................................................. 34 

8-C Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by change in family 

and education circumstances by 1998............................................................................. 35 

9 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted 

percentage controlling for the covariation of the variables in the table, by selected 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 37 
List of Tables

xvi 

Table Page 

10 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, and 

adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of the variables in the table, by 

selected characteristics .................................................................................................... 41

11 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted 

percentage controlling for the covariation of the variables in the table, by selected 

characteristics.................................................................................................................. 45 

12 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure, by first institution type and last year of 

enrollment........................................................................................................................ 52 

13 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure, by student background characteristics ........... 54 

14 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure, by nontraditional student characteristics........ 56 

15 Percentage of employed 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 

1998 who gave various reasons for their departure, by primary role while employed in 

1995–96........................................................................................................................... 57 

16 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure, by academic characteristics ........................... 58 

17 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure, by financial aid characteristics....................... 60 

18 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure, by institution-related characteristics .............. 61 

19 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure, by change in family and education 

circumstances by 1998 .................................................................................................... 62 

20 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 

because of academic reasons, and adjusted percentage after controlling for 

covariation of variables in the table, by selected characteristics..................................... 67 

21 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 

because they were done taking the classes they wanted, and adjusted percentage after 

controlling for covariation of variables in the table, by selected characteristics ............ 69 
List of Tables 

xvii 

Table Page 

22 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 

because of a change in family status, and adjusted percentage after controlling for 

covariation of variables in the table, by selected characteristics..................................... 72 

23 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 

because they needed to work, and adjusted percentage after controlling for 

covariation of variables in the table, by selected characteristics..................................... 73 

Appendix Tables 

B1 Standard errors for table 1: Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students 

who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by first institution 

type.................................................................................................................................. 95 
xviii 

List of Figures 

Figure Page

Executive Summary Figures 

A Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a 

credential and did not return by spring 1998, by first institution type and last year of 

attendance........................................................................................................................ iv 

B Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a 

credential and did not return by spring 1998, by education expectations and first 

institution type................................................................................................................. v 

C Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 

who gave various reasons for their departure.................................................................. vii 

Text Figures

1 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a 

credential and did not return by spring 1998, by first institution type and last year of 

attendance........................................................................................................................ 8 

2 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students according to 

initial educational goals, by first institution type ............................................................ 18 

3 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students at public 2-year institutions 

according to primary reason for enrolling in a community college ................................ 19 

4 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a 

credential and did not return by spring 1998, by education expectations and first 

institution type................................................................................................................. 20 

5 Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who 

gave various reasons for their departure ......................................................................... 52 

6 Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students who left without a credential 

according to initial educational goals, by first institution type ....................................... 64 

7 Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students and those who left without a 

credential within 3 years, percentage who had nontraditional characteristics, by first 

institution type................................................................................................................. 65 
1 

Introduction 

Among new entrants to postsecondary education, departure without a credential is most 

common in the first years of enrollment (Tinto 1993). While many of these students later return 

to postsecondary education and complete certificates or degrees, others do not re-enroll (Horn 

1998). Students at public 2-year institutions leave postsecondary education in the early years at 

higher rates than students in 4-year institutions, even when controlling for background and 

educational expectations (Tinto 1993). Although institutions themselves, and their impact on 

students, are considered to be important in the process of college completion (Tinto 1993; Astin 

1993), the vast literature on attrition (e.g., Tinto 1993; Mallete and Cabrera 1991; Bean 1980) 

recognizes that the process of departure from postsecondary education may differ for community 

college students and students at 4-year institutions (Dougherty 1994; Feldman 1993; Conklin 

1993). 

Despite extensive exploration of various factors that are associated with attrition, there has 

been relatively little study of students’ own accounts of their reasons for leaving college. The 

studies that have been conducted are generally case studies of individual institutions, which are 

not generalizable to the national student population. Their wider applicability is further limited 

by their nearly exclusive focus on community colleges (e.g., Bonham and Luckie 1993; Conklin 

1993; Lee 1996). 

Using the 1996–98 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98), 

this report poses two questions: what student background characteristics are associated with 

departure from postsecondary education without a credential; and among those who do leave, 

what reasons do they give for their departure? In addition, both questions focus on understanding 

how the process of departure from college differs for students who began at 2-year institutions 

rather than 4-year institutions. 

The literature on postsecondary attrition and persistence is extensive and has revealed 

many factors consistently associated with departure. Such factors range from student 

demographic characteristics, to academic performance and enrollment characteristics, to factors 

related to the institutions students attend (Tinto 1993). The most comprehensive models of 

persistence in or attrition from college focus on the complex ways in which institutional 

conditions interact with students’ backgrounds and experiences (Astin 1993; Tinto 1993). For 

example, students’ academic and social integration into campus life and their satisfaction with 
Introduction 

2 

the institution are important in the process of attrition (Bean 1980). Students’ educational plans 

may change as a result of their experiences at college, and other changes in students’ personal 

circumstances may affect their propensity to leave college (Astin 1993; Tinto 1993). In addition, 

students’ ability to pay has been found to increase their persistence in college (Cabrera, Stampen, 

and Hansen 1990). 

The literature that describes the reasons departing students leave college, according to their 

self-reports, is less comprehensive and is based largely on case studies of individual institutions, 

particularly community colleges (e.g., Lee 1996; Moore 1995). A survey of these reports reveals 

that students identify reasons ranging from the most common across institutions, such as 

financial difficulties or work conflicts, to those that may be specific to the institution, such as 

insufficient parking (Luan 1996). Several reasons that have appeared in multiple case studies 

include financial problems, work conflicts, and changes in marital or parental status (Lee 1996; 

Moore 1995; Adams 1994; Conklin 1993; Bonham and Luckie 1993). These studies, while 

useful for individual institutions, do not provide any description of nationwide patterns or a 

baseline for comparing individual institutions. 

In addition, many of these studies either do not explore how these reasons vary by students’ 

characteristics and experiences or include only a few student characteristics in their analyses. 

The relationships that have been observed suggest that the reasons students give for leaving 

college may be associated with many factors. For example, a change in their marital or parental 

status might be particularly salient for women, for whom there are greater expectations regarding 

family responsibilities (Bonham and Luckie 1993). In contrast, men may be more likely to leave 

because they need to work (Lee 1996). Students who enroll part time may be particularly likely 

to have short-term nondegree goals and leave because they have achieved those goals (Lee 

1996). These results, while not generalizable to a wider population, suggest some relationships 

that may be observed with more representative data. 

This report examines factors that are associated with departure from postsecondary 

education as well as the reasons that departing students themselves give to account for this 

attrition, paying particular attention to differences between 2-year and 4-year institutions. 

Specifically, this report addresses the following questions: 

• What proportion of students left college and did not return in the first 3 years, and how 

was this departure related to the type of institution where they began their studies? 

• What factors were associated with early departure from postsecondary education 

among those who began at public 4-year, private not-for-profit 4-year, and public 2-

year institutions? 
Introduction 

3 

• What reasons did these short-term enrollees give for their departure, and how were 

these reasons associated with the type of institution that students first attended? 

• What other characteristics of short-term enrollees were associated with their reasons 

for departure? 

• Were differences in reasons for departure by institution type found after controlling for 

other characteristics? 

Data and Measurement Issues 

The 1996–98 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS) is well suited to 

examine attrition in the first 3 years of postsecondary education. This data set consists of a 

nationally representative sample of all students who first enrolled in postsecondary education in 

the 1995–96 academic year, with a follow-up conducted 3 academic years later in spring 1998. 

This data set is particularly useful for investigating total departure,1

 in which a student withdraws 

from postsecondary education entirely, as distinct from institutional departure, in which a student 

may leave one institution but enroll in another (Tinto 1993). Influences on and reasons for these 

distinct types of departure are likely to vary, but institutional case studies of attrition and reasons 

for it are unable to distinguish the difference. Thus, this report focuses on the phenomenon of 

total departure, an area in which the BPS data set has a strong advantage. Both “departure” and 

“attrition” are used to refer to this process in this report. Students who leave without a credential 

are described as “departing students” or as “short-term enrollees.” This group includes some who 

achieved their postsecondary goals even without a degree or whose departure is only 

temporary—both groups that may not be appropriately referred to as dropouts—in addition to 

others who have abandoned or changed their objectives. 

The initial component of the analysis explores factors associated with attrition during this 

time period and therefore includes all students. The outcome of interest here is whether students 

left postsecondary education without a credential between the base year and first follow-up 

interviews and did not return during this period. Of course, it is possible that some of the 

students who left postsecondary education during this time, particularly those who left later 

during the study period, are in fact stopouts—temporary dropouts who will return to college later 

(Horn 1998). Students who stopped out and returned by the time of the first follow-up (that is, 

known stopouts) are not included with short-term enrollees in this analysis. On the other hand, 

finding that a majority of the community college students they studied planned to return to 

school at some point in the future, Bonham and Luckie (1993) postulated that further changes 

may take place such that “intended stopouts [may become] actual dropouts” (p. 260). Because 

 

1

Total departure, in which students leave postsecondary education altogether, is also referred to as “system departure” (Tinto 

1993). This report refers to total departure. 
Introduction 

4 

the time frame of the BPS data collection is relatively short for capturing students who may later 

return, this potential overlap with stopout behavior should be kept in mind. 

The subsequent analysis is restricted to students who left postsecondary education and had 

not returned in the 3-year period, and examines their reasons for doing so. Bonham and Luckie 

(1993) pointed out that a “web of circumstances,” rather than a single cause, is often more 

accurate to describe why students leave college (p. 259). Most studies of reasons for departure 

allow respondents to indicate multiple reasons for leaving, and BPS, which allowed respondents 

to indicate up to three reasons for leaving college, is no different. Fourteen specific reasons were 

identified in BPS, along with an “Other” reason option, for respondents who had left college 

without a credential and without returning by the time of the first follow-up. The most common 

nine reasons are included in the public-use Data Analysis System (DAS) used to conduct the 

analyses for this report.2

Most of the analyses in both sections of the report are conducted on subsamples, either by 

institution type or by departure status. This approach considerably limits the base sample upon 

which percentages can be calculated, and thus inflates the standard errors used in statistical tests, 

decreasing the tests’ ability to detect small population differences. Therefore, only the 

institutional sectors that serve large numbers of postsecondary students are included. The 

analysis includes only students who began at 2-year or 4-year degree-granting institutions and 

does not include those who started at less-than-2-year institutions (although students at 2-year 

and 4-year institutions may be seeking credentials below the highest level offered at their 

institution). It is also restricted to students at public or private not-for-profit institutions, rather 

than the for-profit sector. These limitations permit comparisons within institution type and also 

focus comparisons across sectors. In addition, most of the analyses also exclude students who 

began their postsecondary education at private not-for-profit 2-year institutions (due to small 

sample sizes that preclude detailed analysis among these students). 

Organization of This Report 

The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section examines early 

departure from postsecondary education, first by determining the prevalence of early attrition for 

the 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students as of spring 1998 and then by making 

comparisons by institution type. Next, other background characteristics that may be associated 

with short-term enrollment are explored, including demographics, nontraditional student 

 

2

Other reasons identified in the survey were the following: classes not available or scheduling not convenient, school or program 

closed or lost accreditation, deciding on a different program of study, enrollment doesn’t suit lifestyle, and pursuing other 

interests. The “Other” reason category is also not included in this report. 
Introduction 

5 

characteristics, academic factors, financial aid, institutional characteristics, and changes in 

educational plans and family status. These factors are considered separately for students who 

began in public 4-year, private not-for-profit 4-year, and public 2-year institutions. Multivariate 

analyses of departure for each institution type conclude the section. The subsequent analyses are 

restricted to those students who left postsecondary education without a credential and did not 

return by 1998. This section addresses the reasons cited by students for their departure and 

investigates how these reasons vary by institution type. It then considers the same background 

factors in relationship to the reasons cited by short-term enrollees. The report concludes with 

multivariate analyses of those reasons that differed by institution type. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
7 

Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

What Proportion of Students Left College Without a Credential and Did Not 

Return Within 3 Years? 

About one-third (32 percent) of beginning postsecondary students had left without a 

credential within 3 academic years (table 1 and figure 1). Students who began at 4-year 

institutions were less likely than those who began at 2-year institutions to do so (17–19 percent 

versus 35–44 percent). 

The proportion of students who left without a credential was greatest in the first year of 

enrollment and smallest in the third year of enrollment.3 This result is consistent with evidence 

from other studies (Horn 1998). Among students who began at public 4-year institutions, fewer 

left in the third year than in the first or second year of enrollment. Among students who began at 

private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, no differences were detected in the proportions leaving 

 

3

The percentage who left in each year is calculated as a proportion of the total number of students in the beginning cohort, rather 

than as a proportion of the number of students remaining. 

Table 1.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a credential and did not

Table 1.—return by spring 1998, by first institution type

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 31.7 15.9 10.3 5.5 

First institution type

 Public 4-year 18.8 7.3 7.5 4.1 

 Private not-for-profit 4-year 17.2 6.4 6.8 4.0 

 Public 2-year 43.6 23.9 13.0 6.8 

 Private not-for-profit 2-year 34.7 15.3 12.7 6.8 

NOTE: Excludes students who began at less-than-2-year institutions and private for-profit institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

8 

in each of the first 3 years. The proportion of public 2-year college students leaving school 

within the first year was larger than the proportion leaving from any other type of institution. 

What Factors Were Associated With Early Departure? 

As indicated in the introduction, the literature suggests that the process of departure from 

postsecondary education differs for students in various types of institutions (Tinto 1993; 

Dougherty 1994). For this reason, the analysis in the remainder of this section is conducted 

separately for students beginning at different types of institutions. Because the private not-forprofit 2-year sector is relatively small, this analysis could not produce reliable estimates of 

factors associated with departure exclusively in this sector. Thus, estimates are presented only 

for students beginning at public 4-year, private not-for-profit 4-year, and public 2-year 

institutions. 

Figure 1.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a credential and did not return

Figure 1.—by spring 1998, by first institution type and last year of attendance

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

13 6

7

7

7 6

16

24

15

7

8

10 13

4

4

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Public 4-year Private not-forprofit 4-yearPublic 2-year Private not-forprofit 2-year

Percent

Left 1997–98

Left 1996–97

Left 1995–96

32

35

44

17

19
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

9 

Student Background Characteristics 

Several demographic factors were associated with early attrition among students who 

began at public 4-year institutions (table 2-A). Black students who began at public 4-year 

institutions were more likely than their Hispanic or Asian/Pacific Islander peers to leave within 3 

academic years (25 percent versus 14 and 11 percent, respectively). Those from higher income 

families were less likely than those from lower income families to leave within 3 years of first 

enrollment. For example, 24 percent of students from the lowest income quartile left, while 15 

percent of those from the highest income quartile did so. Also, students whose parents did not go 

to college were more likely than those whose parents did attend college to leave without a 

credential within 3 years of beginning their postsecondary education (25 versus 15 percent). 

Table 2-A.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left 

Table 2-A.—without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by student background characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 18.8 7.3 7.5 4.1 

Gender

 Male 19.8 8.1 7.9 3.9 

 Female 18.2 6.6 7.2 4.3 

Race/ethnicity

 White, non-Hispanic 19.6 8.0 7.9 3.8 

 Black, non-Hispanic 25.4 6.9 12.1 6.4 

 Hispanic 13.6 6.8 4.4 2.4 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 10.5 1.3 1.9 7.3 

 Other 13.1 4.0 5.9 3.3 

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 23.8 9.9 9.3 4.6 

 Middle two quartiles 18.8 7.1 8.0 3.7 

 Highest quartile 15.2 5.4 5.3 4.5 

First generation status

 First-generation college student 25.0 9.2 11.5 4.3 

 Not first-generation 14.5 5.0 5.6 4.0 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

10 

Many of the same results were found among students who began at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions (table 2-B). Black students were more likely than Asian/Pacific Islander 

students to leave within 3 academic years. While it appeared that Hispanic students were also 

more likely than Asian students to leave during this time frame, the standard errors were large 

and the difference was not statistically significant. Among those who began at private not-forprofit 4-year institutions, smaller proportions of higher income students left than lower income 

students. Like those who began at public 4-year colleges and universities, first-generation college 

students (those whose parents did not attend college) at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions 

were more likely than others to leave without a credential within 3 years of beginning their 

postsecondary education. 

Table 2-B.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 2-B.—who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by student background characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 17.2 6.4 6.8 4.0 

Gender

 Male 19.2 9.1 7.3 2.8 

 Female 15.6 4.3 6.4 4.9 

Race/ethnicity

 White, non-Hispanic 16.1 5.8 6.7 3.7 

 Black, non-Hispanic 22.7 5.8 11.6 5.2 

 Hispanic 23.8 12.8 7.1 3.9 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 10.3 3.3 1.6 5.4 

 Other (#) (#) (#) (#) 

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 26.5 9.9 11.3 5.4 

 Middle two quartiles 16.9 5.2 7.3 4.4 

 Highest quartile 11.3 5.9 3.1 2.4 

First generation status

 First-generation college student 28.7 10.9 11.5 6.3 

 Not first-generation 12.8 4.2 5.3 3.3 

#Too small to report.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

11 

Although differences in leaving school by income, race/ethnicity, and first-generation 

status were found among public and private not-for-profit 4-year students, these differences were 

not observed among students who began at public 2-year institutions (table 2-C). 

Several characteristics were used to define those who were considered “nontraditional” 

among postsecondary students: being age 24 or older, delaying enrollment in postsecondary 

education by a year or more after high school, enrolling part time, being an independent student, 

working full time while enrolled, having been married, having any dependents or being single 

parents, and not having a regular high school diploma (Horn 1996). While these characteristics 

are considered nontraditional, they are not necessarily rare. For example, Horn (1996) found that, 

among all undergraduates (not just beginning postsecondary students) in Fall 1992, 59 percent 

Table 2-C.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left 

Table 2-C.—without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by student background characteristics 

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 43.6 23.9 13.0 6.8 

Gender

 Male 41.3 23.8 11.2 6.2 

 Female 45.9 24.0 14.7 7.3 

Race/ethnicity

 White, non-Hispanic 42.7 23.7 13.1 5.9 

 Black, non-Hispanic 52.9 33.9 10.5 8.4 

 Hispanic 41.9 19.7 11.5 10.7 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 41.0 13.1 25.5 2.4 

 Other (#) (#) (#) (#) 

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 44.0 26.5 11.5 6.0 

 Middle two quartiles 44.7 24.4 12.3 8.0 

 Highest quartile 39.3 19.2 15.3 4.8 

First generation status

 First-generation college student 45.0 24.2 13.4 7.4 

 Not first-generation 37.4 18.2 11.9 7.3 

#Too small to report.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

12 

were older than typical for their class year; 43 percent had delayed enrollment; 42 percent 

attended part time; 48 percent were independent; 28 percent worked full time while enrolled; 20 

percent had dependents; 7 percent were single parents; and 4 percent had a GED or high school 

completion certificate instead of a high school diploma. 

Students with nontraditional characteristics who began at public 4-year institutions were 

generally more likely than those without these characteristics to leave within 3 years (table 3-A). 

Older students left with greater frequency than younger ones (46 versus 16–22 percent). 

Similarly, students who delayed enrollment in postsecondary education were more likely to leave 

college (33 versus 15 percent). Students who enrolled part time were more likely than those who 

enrolled full time for at least part of the first year to leave postsecondary education within 3 

years. In addition, 42 percent of independent students left without a credential within 3 years, 

while 17 percent of dependent students did so. The more hours students worked while enrolled 

during their first year of postsecondary education, the more likely they were to leave within 3 

years. Students who worked full time were especially likely to leave within this time period: 39 

percent of them departed within 3 years, compared with 13 percent of those who did not work 

and 19 percent of those who worked part time while they were enrolled during the 1995–96 

academic year. In addition, 47 percent of students who had ever been married or had dependents 

when they enrolled had departed within 3 years, compared with about 17 percent of students who 

had never married or did not have dependents. Similarly, single parents were more likely than 

their counterparts to leave postsecondary education within 3 years (40 versus 18 percent). 

Students with nontraditional characteristics who began at private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions were also more likely than those without these characteristics to leave without a 

credential (table 3-B). Age, delayed enrollment, initial attendance intensity, dependency status, 

employment intensity, marital and parental status, and high school completion type were all 

associated with early departure from postsecondary education. For example, students who 

delayed enrollment in postsecondary education by more than a year after completing high school 

were more likely to leave within 3 years (34 versus 14 percent). Also, students who enrolled full 

time for their first year of postsecondary education were less likely to leave than those who 

enrolled part time for part or all of the year (14 percent for full-time enrollment versus 31 percent 

for mixed enrollment and 51 percent for part-time enrollment). 

Similar to the pattern among students from 4-year institutions, students with nontraditional 

characteristics who began at community colleges during 1995–96 were generally more likely 

than their counterparts without these characteristics to depart without a credential within 3 

academic years (table 3-C). For example, older students were more likely than younger students 

to leave without a credential within 3 years. Similarly, those who delayed postsecondary 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

13 

Table 3-A.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left 

Table 3-A.—without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by nontraditional student characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 18.8 7.3 7.5 4.1 

Age

 18 or younger 15.5 5.0 6.4 4.1 

 19–23 21.7 8.4 9.3 4.0 

 24 or older 46.0 31.6 9.5 4.9 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 15.5 4.9 6.3 4.2 

 Delayed 33.2 16.9 12.5 3.7 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 17.2 6.0 6.8 4.3 

 Mixed 14.9 6.0 5.5 3.4 

 Part time 47.2 24.4 19.1 3.6 

Dependency status

 Dependent 16.7 5.8 6.9 4.0 

 Independent 42.0 25.2 11.1 5.7 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 12.9 3.6 6.1 3.2 

 Worked part time 18.7 7.2 7.1 4.3 

 Worked full time 38.5 19.9 13.3 5.3 

Ever married

 Never married 17.5 6.1 7.4 4.0 

 Currently or previously married 47.0 31.4 9.8 5.8 

Any dependents

 No dependents 17.3 6.5 7.0 3.9 

 Had dependents 46.7 26.0 12.7 8.0 

Single parent

 Not single parent 18.0 7.0 7.0 4.0 

 Single parent 39.6 16.3 14.8 8.5 

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 18.6 7.3 7.3 4.1 

 Other 35.6 8.2 21.3 6.1 

NOTE: Row variables are as of the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

14 

Table 3-B.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 3-B.—who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by nontraditional student

Table 3-B.—characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 17.2 6.4 6.8 4.0 

Age

 18 or younger 13.3 4.0 6.6 2.7 

 19–23 20.7 7.0 6.9 6.8 

 24 or older 45.1 33.5 8.4 3.2 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 13.6 3.9 6.1 3.7 

 Delayed 33.8 18.3 9.9 5.6 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 14.1 4.7 6.2 3.3 

 Mixed 31.0 6.2 15.7 9.0 

 Part time 50.8 36.0 5.2 9.6 

Dependency status

 Dependent 14.4 4.4 6.1 4.0 

 Independent 44.5 25.8 14.7 4.0 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 14.6 5.7 5.1 3.8 

 Worked part time 13.9 3.1 6.8 4.1 

 Worked full time 37.8 17.3 14.1 6.5 

Ever married

 Never married 15.3 4.9 6.5 4.0 

 Currently or previously married 62.4 43.9 14.3 4.3 

Any dependents

 No dependents 15.4 5.2 6.3 3.9 

 Had dependents 58.4 31.1 21.2 6.1 

Single parent

 Not single parent 16.2 5.7 6.6 3.9 

 Single parent 47.2 25.7 15.1 6.5 

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 16.6 6.1 6.7 3.9 

 Other 37.4 18.3 11.5 7.6 

NOTE: Row variables are as of the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

15 

Table 3-C.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left 

Table 3-C.—without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by nontraditional student characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 43.6 23.9 13.0 6.8 

Age

 18 or younger 33.6 16.7 10.4 6.5 

 19–23 42.1 22.0 12.6 7.5 

 24 or older 59.5 37.6 15.5 6.4 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment

 Did not delay 33.1 15.7 11.4 6.1 

 Delayed 55.4 33.3 14.5 7.6 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 33.4 14.9 13.5 5.0 

 Mixed 37.1 16.2 11.5 9.5 

 Part time 58.0 38.0 12.9 7.1 

Dependency status

 Dependent 35.6 17.7 11.9 6.1 

 Independent 59.0 35.9 14.2 8.9 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 43.1 22.5 14.9 5.6 

 Worked part time 32.7 16.2 10.3 6.2 

 Worked full time 59.0 34.3 15.8 8.9 

Ever married

 Never married 39.1 19.8 12.5 6.8 

 Currently or previously married 60.4 39.2 14.7 6.5 

Any dependents

 No dependents 40.4 21.4 12.9 6.1 

 Had dependents 55.4 31.6 13.6 10.1 

Single parent

 Not single parent 42.6 22.9 13.8 5.9 

 Single parent 49.7 27.4 7.0 15.4 

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 42.9 23.7 12.8 6.5 

 Other 49.1 25.6 14.6 8.9 

NOTE: Row variables are as of the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

16 

enrollment after high school were more likely than those who did not delay to leave without a 

credential within this time period (55 versus 33 percent). Independent students who began at 

public 2-year institutions were more likely than dependent students to leave without a credential 

(59 versus 36 percent). In addition, students who had ever been married (60 percent) or who had 

dependents (55 percent) when they began college were more likely to leave than those who had 

not married or had dependents (39–40 percent). Finally, while a majority (59 percent) of 

beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who worked full time while 

enrolled in their first year left without a credential, the same was not true for those who did not 

work (43 percent) or for those who worked fewer hours (33 percent). 

In addition to students’ employment status while enrolled, among those students who were

employed, the role that they considered primary was also associated with short-term enrollment 

that did not result in a credential (table 4). Among beginning postsecondary students from all 

three types of institutions who were employed while enrolled in 1995–96, those who considered 

themselves to be primarily employees who were enrolled in school were more likely than those 

who considered themselves to be primarily students to leave without a credential within 3 years. 

For example, among those who began at public 4-year institutions, 44 percent of employed 

students who considered themselves primarily employees left within this time frame, while 19 

percent of those who considered themselves primarily students did so. 

Students’ Educational Expectations and Other Academic Characteristics 

While the family and employment situations of students are often related to how likely they 

are to leave postsecondary education, much literature on short-term enrollment, particularly that 

on community college students, suggests that students’ own reasons for enrolling and their 

overall educational plans and expectations must be taken into account when considering who 

leaves (Conklin 1993; Bonham and Luckie 1993). That is, students without plans to complete a 

degree when they enter college may differ considerably from those with such plans. Because of 

the broader missions and range of students they serve, public 2-year institutions may be 

particularly attractive to students with these shorter-term goals, and students who leave these 

institutions without credentials often indicate that their goals were met (Lee 1996; Moore 1995). 

In the 1995–96 survey, students were asked to identify what degree, if any, they planned to 

complete at their first institution,4

 as well as the highest educational level they ever expected to 

 

4

This variable was based on students’ responses to the question, “What is the highest degree you expect to complete at [this 

institution]?” Response options included plans to transfer to 2-year or 4-year institutions, degrees ranging from undergraduate

certificates to doctoral and first-professional degrees, and no plans to transfer or complete a degree. Responses for any degree of 

BA or higher plus those planning to transfer to a 4-year institution were coded as bachelor’s/transfer. Those planning no degree at 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

17 

complete. In this report, these are referred to as “initial degree objectives” and “eventual 

educational expectations,” respectively. Students’ initial degree objectives differed by the type of 

institution they attended (figure 2). Relatively few students did not plan to get any sort of 

credential from their first institution, but those at public 2-year colleges were more likely to have 

no immediate degree plans than those at 4-year institutions (14 versus 5–6 percent). On the other 

hand, students who began at 4-year institutions had higher initial degree objectives: 90 percent of 

students who began at 4-year institutions planned to get a bachelor’s degree from the institution 

where they began. In comparison, 25 percent of students who began at community colleges 

planned to transfer from their first institution to a 4-year institution or otherwise indicated that 

they planned to complete a bachelor’s degree immediately. 

 that institution or planning to transfer from one less-than-4-year institution to another were also coded as having no degree 

expectation. Responses of higher degrees than were offered at the institution were assumed to be planning to transfer. 

Table 4.—Percentage of employed 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a credential and did

Table 4.—not return by spring 1998, by first institution type and primary role while employed in 1995–96

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 21.8 9.1 8.2 4.6 

Primary role

 Student working to meet expenses 19.1 6.6 8.6 3.9 

 Employee who is enrolled 44.0 27.3 7.4 9.4 

 Total 18.2 6.7 7.5 4.0 

Primary role

 Student working to meet expenses 14.2 3.2 7.2 3.9 

 Employee who is enrolled 42.5 21.0 13.9 7.6 

 Total 43.8 24.2 12.6 7.0 

Primary role

 Student working to meet expenses 36.9 15.7 14.7 6.5 

 Employee who is enrolled 57.7 37.5 10.7 9.5 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Public 4-year institutions

Private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Public 2-year institutions

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

18 

Eventual educational expectations were relatively high, even among students who began at 

public 2-year institutions (figure 2). Among students who began at community colleges, 33 

percent eventually expected to complete a bachelor’s degree, and another 29 percent expected to 

complete an advanced degree beyond the bachelor’s. But they were less likely to expect an 

advanced degree in the future than students who began at 4-year institutions (59 percent for those 

Figure 2.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students according to initial educational

Figure 2.—goals, by first institution type

1

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

2

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Eventual education expectations2

21.0

24.4

21.1

33.3

17.8

29.3

58.8

59.3

1.8

1.2

16.4

15.6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Public 2-year

Private not-forprofit 4-year

Public 4-year

Percent

Don’t know Less than bachelor’s Bachelor’s Advanced degree

Initial degree objective1

14.3

5.6

24.7

90.2

5.5 90.1

11.8

1.3

1.1

49.2

3.0

3.3

0 20 40 60 80 100

Public 2-year

Private not-forprofit 4-year

Public 4-year

Percent

None Certificate Associate’s Bachelor’s or transfer to 4-year
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

19 

at both public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions). Students who began at public 2-year 

institutions were also more likely to have eventual educational expectations below a bachelor’s 

degree (16 versus 1–2 percent of those who began at 4-year institutions). 

Students who began at public 2-year institutions were also asked to indicate their primary 

reason for enrolling in a community college (figure 3). Thirty-eight percent of public 2-year 

students indicated that their primary reason for enrolling in a community college was to transfer 

to a 4-year institution, a reason that was reported more often than any other. About one-fifth (22 

percent) indicated that they enrolled in a public 2-year college primarily to obtain job skills, and 

another fifth said they selected the institution so they could complete an associate’s degree or 

certificate. 

Students’ eventual educational expectations and their initial degree objective at their first 

institution were both associated with their departure from postsecondary education within 3 

years. For example, among beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions, those 

with higher expectations for their eventual education were less likely to leave within 3 years 

without a credential (figure 4 and table 5-A). In addition, those who did not know their eventual 

Figure 3.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students at public 2-year institutions according to

Figure 3.—primary reason for enrolling in a community college

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Transfer

to 4-year 

38%

Other transfer 3%

Personal

enrichment

16% Job skills

22% 

Degree or

certificate

22%
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

20 

education outcome were more likely than those who expected to complete an advanced degree to 

leave within this time frame (24 versus 13 percent). However, students with uncertain education 

outcomes were less likely than those who did not expect to complete a bachelor’s degree to leave 

(24 versus 58 percent). Furthermore, those who did not plan to get a bachelor’s degree from their 

first institution were more likely than those who did to leave within 3 years (40 versus 16 

percent). 

Other academic and enrollment characteristics were also associated with departure within 3 

years. Students who began at public 4-year institutions in the fall term were less likely to leave 

within this time period than those who started later in the academic year (18 versus 36 percent). 

In addition, students with lower academic performance in their first year of enrollment were 

more likely to leave within 3 years than others. Twenty-four percent of students who took any 

remedial classes left, compared with 18 percent of those who did not take remedial courses, and 

attrition was also higher among students whose first-year grade-point average (GPA) was below 

Figure 4.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a credential and did not 

Figure 4.—return by spring 1998, by education expectations and first institution type

NOTE: Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” 

when asked during the base year (1995–96) interview.

#Too small to report.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

60

48

22

24

12

13

34

28

26

42

58

(#)

0 20 40 60 80 100

Public 2-year

Private not-for-profit 4-year

Public 4-year

Percent

Don’t know

Less than bachelor’s

Bachelor’s

Advanced degree
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

21 

Table 5-A.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without

Table 5-A.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by academic characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 18.8 7.3 7.5 4.1 

Initial degree objective1

 Less than bachelor’s 39.6 22.5 13.2 3.8 

 Bachelor’s 16.0 5.4 6.7 3.9 

Eventual education expectations2

 Don’t know 24.4 9.7 9.6 5.1 

 Less than bachelor’s 58.1 40.5 16.5 1.2 

 Bachelor’s 28.3 10.6 12.6 5.1 

 Advanced degree 13.5 4.1 5.5 3.9 

First term enrolled

 Fall 17.7 6.5 7.1 4.1 

 Other 35.9 17.6 13.1 5.2 

Any remedial courses 1995–96

 No remedial courses 17.8 6.8 7.0 4.0 

 Any remedial courses 24.3 7.6 11.3 5.4 

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 8.8 3.8 2.6 2.4 

 Under 2.75 27.8 10.5 11.6 5.6 

Combined SAT scores3

 Not available 33.5 17.1 13.4 3.0 

 1000 or below 20.1 6.7 8.5 5.0 

 Over 1000 12.5 5.6 4.1 2.9 

1

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

2

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

3

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Nine percent of

students beginning at public 4-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

22 

2.75 than among those with higher GPAs. Finally, those with combined SAT scores of 1,000 or 

below were more likely than those with higher scores to leave without a credential (13 versus 20 

percent). 

For those students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, academic 

characteristics were related to departure from postsecondary education within 3 years in much 

the same way as for students who began at public 4-year institutions (figure 4 and table 5-B). For 

example, those who eventually expected to get an advanced degree were less likely to leave than 

those who did not expect to obtain more education beyond a bachelor’s degree (12 versus 26 

percent). Here, too, students who planned to complete a bachelor’s degree at the private 4-year 

college or university at which they first enrolled were less likely than those who did not have 

such plans to leave postsecondary education altogether (13 versus 46 percent). 

Students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions in the fall term were less 

likely to leave within 3 years than those who started later in the year (16 versus 43 percent). 

Higher first-year GPA and SAT scores were also associated with a lower likelihood of leaving 

postsecondary education without a credential at private not-for-profit institutions. These results 

were also consistent with those for students who began at public 4-year institutions. 

Among students who began postsecondary education at community colleges, those with 

higher educational goals (in terms of both eventual educational expectations and degree goals at 

the first institution) were less likely than others to depart within 3 years without a credential 

(figure 4 and table 5-C). For example, 64 percent of those who did not plan to obtain any 

credential at the community college where they first enrolled had ceased enrollment within 3 

years, compared with 33–44 percent of others. Furthermore, among beginning postsecondary 

students at community colleges, those indicating that their primary reason for enrolling was to 

transfer to a 4-year institution—the most frequent reason cited—were less likely than those 

giving any other reason (such as gaining job skills or a less-than-4-year credential) to leave 

within 3 years. However, 29 percent of them still departed, a higher rate than that among 

students who began at 4-year institutions. 

First-year GPA was associated with departure without a credential among students who 

began at public 2-year institutions as well. Unlike the pattern among students at public 4-year 

institutions, however, no differences were observed in the rate of departure by enrollment in 

remedial courses. Although SAT scores were not available for most students beginning at public 

2-year institutions, those who had SAT scores were less likely than those who did not to leave 

postsecondary education without a credential within 3 years. This pattern may have occurred 

because those who had taken a college admissions test already had plans to transfer to 4-year 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

23 

Table 5-B.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 5-B.—who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by academic characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 17.2 6.4 6.8 4.0 

Initial degree objective1

 Less than bachelor’s 45.5 21.4 14.1 10.0 

 Bachelor’s 13.1 3.4 6.2 3.5 

Eventual education expectations2

 Don’t know 22.2 11.4 7.3 3.5 

 Less than bachelor’s (#) (#) (#) (#) 

 Bachelor’s 26.1 9.4 10.6 6.0 

 Advanced degree 11.7 2.6 5.5 3.6 

First term enrolled

 Fall 15.8 5.5 6.6 3.7 

 Other 42.5 23.4 9.3 9.8 

Any remedial courses 1995–96

 No remedial courses 15.6 4.7 7.0 3.9 

 Any remedial courses 21.9 8.2 7.2 6.6 

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 8.5 2.6 3.2 2.7 

 Under 2.75 28.9 11.7 11.7 5.4 

Combined SAT scores3

 Not available 44.3 29.4 10.3 4.6 

 1000 or below 19.8 5.1 9.1 5.6 

 Over 1000 7.9 2.4 3.5 2.0 

#Too small to report.

1

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

2

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

3

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Ten percent of

students beginning at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

24 

Table 5-C.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left without

Table 5-C.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by academic characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 43.6 23.9 13.0 6.8 

Initial degree objective1

 None 64.2 46.6 11.4 6.2 

 Certificate 43.6 33.1 8.0 2.5 

 Associate’s 42.4 17.9 16.3 8.2 

 Bachelor’s or transfer to 4-year 33.3 17.5 10.0 5.8 

Eventual education expectations2

 Don’t know 48.1 33.2 9.4 5.5 

 Less than bachelor’s 60.3 42.1 11.9 6.2 

 Bachelor’s 42.4 18.1 16.8 7.5 

 Advanced degree 33.7 12.9 12.2 8.6 

Primary reason for enrolling

 Job skills 58.1 39.2 12.3 6.7 

 Degree or certificate 46.4 16.2 24.7 5.6 

 Transfer to 4-year 29.3 12.4 8.9 8.0 

 Other transfer 64.1 27.8 28.5 7.8 

 Personal enrichment 54.6 35.9 11.3 7.4 

First term enrolled

 Fall 42.1 23.6 12.3 6.2 

 Other 48.3 26.0 13.3 9.0 

Any remedial courses 1995–96

 No remedial courses 42.4 23.5 11.8 7.0 

 Any remedial courses 48.2 21.5 18.5 8.2 

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 38.4 21.7 11.2 5.5 

 Under 2.75 47.2 25.6 13.6 8.0 

Combined SAT scores3

 Not available 53.9 31.2 15.0 7.7 

 1000 or below 29.4 13.8 10.4 5.2 

 Over 1000 20.4 7.4 6.5 6.4 

1

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

2

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

3

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Sixty percent of

students beginning at public 2-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

25 

institutions that require these tests. Alternatively, younger students (who were less likely to 

leave; table 3-C) may have been more likely to have taken a college admissions test during high 

school to prepare for any postsecondary education. While rates of attrition differed among 

students who began at 4-year institutions according to whether or not they entered college in the 

fall semester, such differences were not found among those who began at public 2-year 

institutions. 

Other Student and Institution Characteristics 

Among students who began at public 4-year institutions, both financial aid and price of 

attendance were associated with short-term enrollment in postsecondary education (table 6-A). 

Among students who received financial aid in their first year of college, those who received 

more aid were less likely than those who received less aid to depart within 3 years, although 

there was no difference detected by the type of aid package that aided students had. However, no 

difference was detected between the proportion of all financial aid recipients and the proportion 

of non-recipients who left postsecondary education within this time frame. 

Students’ price of attendance refers to their attendance-adjusted student budget (tuition and 

fees plus housing and other expenses). This provides a measure of the costs of attending 

postsecondary education that must be paid by the student or by financial aid, and reflects 

variation among institutions even within a particular type of institution. Students with a higher 

price of attendance were less likely to leave than those with a lower price. This was also true 

when considering full-time students only. 

Similar results were found among students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions (table 6-B). Among financial aid recipients, those who received more aid were less 

likely than those who received less aid to depart within 3 years. However, no difference was 

detected between aided students and non-aided students in rates of departure, and among aided 

students, the type of aid received was not found to be associated with departure. Students 

beginning at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions who had a higher price of attendance were 

less likely to leave than those with a lower price, even when examining full-time students only. 

Price of attendance was negatively associated with departure within 3 academic years for 

students who began at public 2-year institutions: the higher the price of attendance, the less likely 

the students were to leave without a credential, both among all students and among full-time 

students (table 6-C). This result paralleled the relationship of price of attendance to departure 

among students who began at 4-year institutions. No differences in departure rates were observed 

by receipt of financial aid and, for aided students, by the type and amount of aid received. 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

26 

Table 6-A.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without

Table 6-A.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by financial aid characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 18.8 7.3 7.5 4.1 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 20.2 7.9 7.9 4.4 

 Received financial aid 18.4 7.0 7.4 4.0 

Financial aid amount1

 $3,000 or less 22.0 9.6 7.8 4.6 

 $3,001–$6,000 19.5 6.7 8.7 4.1 

 More than $6,000 12.5 3.9 5.4 3.3 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 16.7 7.5 5.9 3.3 

 Aided with loans 19.7 6.8 8.3 4.6 

Price of attendance2

 $6,000 or less 44.5 24.4 14.4 5.8 

 $6,001–$9,000 20.5 6.4 8.5 5.6 

 $9,001–$12,000 12.7 3.9 5.8 3.0 

 More than $12,000 8.7 2.1 4.0 2.6 

 Total 17.2 6.0 6.8 4.3 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 15.4 5.1 6.0 4.4 

 Received financial aid 17.8 6.4 7.2 4.2 

Financial aid amount1

 $3,000 or less 20.2 8.3 7.1 4.8 

 $3,001–$6,000 20.0 6.6 8.9 4.5 

 More than $6,000 12.7 3.9 5.6 3.2 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 14.5 5.7 5.4 3.4 

 Aided with loans 19.9 6.9 8.3 4.8 

Price of attendance2

 $6,000 or less 40.8 22.6 11.4 6.8 

 $6,001–$9,000 20.4 6.1 8.5 5.8 

 $9,001–$12,000 12.6 4.1 5.5 3.1 

 More than $12,000 8.7 1.5 4.5 2.7 

1

Excludes those without financial aid.

2

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 

Total

Full time
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

27 

Table 6-B.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 6-B.—who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by financial aid characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 17.2 6.4 6.8 4.0 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 18.1 10.3 3.5 4.3 

 Received financial aid 17.0 5.5 7.5 3.9 

Financial aid amount1

 $6,000 or less 25.2 11.6 10.2 3.4 

 $6,001–$12,000 16.3 3.2 9.2 3.8 

 More than $12,000 9.8 1.7 3.7 4.4 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 19.1 7.8 7.9 3.5 

 Aided with loans 16.1 4.6 7.4 4.1 

Price of attendance2

 $15,000 or less 36.9 17.9 13.5 5.5 

 $15,001–$20,000 10.5 2.6 5.1 2.8 

 $20,001–$25,000 7.8 0.2 2.7 4.9 

 More than $25,000 4.8 0.1 2.5 2.3 

 Total 14.1 4.7 6.2 3.3 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 12.1 6.3 3.8 2.0 

 Received financial aid 14.6 4.3 6.7 3.6 

Financial aid amount1

 $6,000 or less 20.8 9.9 8.5 2.5 

 $6,001–$12,000 14.7 2.1 9.3 3.3 

 More than $12,000 9.6 1.8 3.2 4.6 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 14.1 5.5 5.7 2.9 

 Aided with loans 14.8 3.9 7.1 3.8 

Price of attendance2

 $15,000 or less 32.5 14.7 14.2 3.6 

 $15,001–$20,000 9.9 2.5 4.7 2.7 

 $20,001–$25,000 7.5 0.2 2.4 4.9 

 More than $25,000 4.8 0.1 2.4 2.3 

1

Excludes those without financial aid.

2

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 

Total

Full time
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

28 

Table 6-C.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left without

Table 6-C.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by financial aid characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 43.6 23.9 13.0 6.8 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 42.4 25.6 11.4 5.4 

 Received financial aid 45.0 22.4 14.0 8.6 

Financial aid amount1

 $3,000 or less 47.8 26.1 14.4 7.3 

 More than $3,000 35.2 9.1 12.5 13.6 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 46.9 23.8 13.6 9.5 

 Aided with loans 38.9 17.7 15.3 5.8 

Price of attendance2

 $3,000 or less 60.2 43.2 10.5 6.4 

 $3,001–$6,000 39.1 20.2 13.5 5.4 

 More than $6,000 32.9 9.9 13.5 9.5 

 Total 33.4 14.9 13.5 5.0 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 32.2 15.3 12.0 4.9 

 Received financial aid 34.4 14.6 14.6 5.2 

Financial aid amount1

 $3,000 or less 36.7 17.7 13.1 5.8 

 More than $3,000 27.9 5.9 18.8 3.2 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 34.3 15.2 13.2 5.9 

 Aided with loans 34.4 13.2 17.9 3.3 

Price of attendance2

 $3,000 or less 59.9 41.6 14.0 4.3 

 $3,001–$6,000 35.0 18.4 12.4 4.2 

 More than $6,000 26.5 5.7 14.7 6.2 

1

Excludes those without financial aid.

2

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 

Total

Full time
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

29 

Tinto (1993) suggests that satisfying social and academic experiences in college serve to 

integrate students more fully into the life of the institution. The BPS survey provides a measure 

of social integration with questions asking students how frequently they did such activities as 

attending concerts, participating in clubs or sports, or going places with friends from school. 

Similarly, academic integration is assessed by the frequency with which students participated in 

study groups or had contact with faculty.5 Students beginning at public 4-year institutions who 

experienced lower social and academic integration into campus life during their first year of 

postsecondary education were more likely than others to leave within 3 years (table 7-A). 

 

5

Responses to individual items were combined into indices of social and academic integration, with low and high groups 

determined by splitting the sample at the overall mean (see the glossary for details on variable construction). Students at 4-year 

institutions were more likely than those at public 2-year institutions to have high integration: 68–79 percent of 4-year students 

had high social integration, compared with 24 percent of public 2-year students, and 76–84 percent of 4-year students had high 

academic integration, compared with 41 percent of public 2-year students. 

Table 7-A.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without

Table 7-A.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by institution-related characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 18.8 7.3 7.5 4.1 

Social integration

 Low 28.1 11.4 10.4 6.3 

 High 14.6 4.9 6.5 3.2 

Academic integration

 Low 31.1 14.7 10.5 6.0 

 High 15.0 4.5 6.9 3.7 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 14.7 4.0 6.7 4.0 

 With parents or other relatives 22.4 9.3 8.0 5.1 

 Other 27.9 13.4 10.4 4.1 

Institution graduation rate*

 33 percent or less 28.4 11.2 11.2 6.1 

 34–67 percent 18.9 7.0 7.6 4.3 

 More than 67 percent 4.9 1.7 1.9 1.4 

*Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by

institutions in IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

30 

Twenty-eight percent of those with low social integration left within 3 years, compared with 15 

percent of those with high social integration. Similarly, 31 percent of students with low academic 

integration left, compared with 15 percent of students with high academic integration. In 

addition, students who lived in school-owned housing in their first year at public 4-year colleges 

and universities were less likely than those with other living arrangements to leave within this 

time frame. Students living in school-owned housing may be more integrated into campus life 

than those who live with their parents or on their own. Alternatively, students in school-owned 

housing may also be younger, and therefore less likely to leave. 

The persistence behavior of peers was also related to their departure. Students who began 

at public 4-year institutions with higher graduation rates (calculated for first-time, full-time 

students) were less likely than their counterparts at institutions with lower graduation rates to 

leave postsecondary education within 3 years. That is, when persistence at the institution was 

generally high among full-time beginning students, individual students were less likely to leave 

postsecondary education. 

Paralleling students who began at public 4-year institutions, social and academic 

integration, residence arrangement, and institutional graduation rates were associated with 

departure from postsecondary education among students who began at private not-for-profit 4-

year institutions (table 7-B). For example, 12 percent of students at private 4-year institutions 

who lived in school-owned housing during their first year left within 3 years, compared with 28 

percent of those who lived with their parents and 43 percent of those who lived elsewhere. 

Higher social and academic integration were also associated with persistence among 

students who began at public 2-year institutions (table 7-C). About one-half (49 percent) of 

students with low social or academic integration left without a credential within 3 years, 

compared with 30 percent of students with high social integration and 37 percent of students 

with high academic integration. While school-owned housing is relatively uncommon at 

community colleges, beginning postsecondary students at these institutions who did live in 

school-owned housing were less likely than those who lived somewhere else other than with 

their parents to leave within 3 academic years (31 versus 52 percent). The graduation rate of the 

institution where students began was associated with attrition rates at 4-year institutions, but this 

relationship was not detected among students who began at public 2-year colleges. 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

31 

As described in the introduction, students’ educational goals may change during college 

(Astin 1993). Transfer between institutions as well as changes in educational expectations were 

assessed in BPS:96/98. Among students who began at public 4-year institutions, those who had 

transferred to another institution within 3 academic years were less likely than those who 

remained at their initial institution to have left postsecondary education altogether (15 versus 20 

percent; table 8-A). Change in overall educational expectations6

 was also associated with 

whether students left postsecondary education. Those 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students 

who increased their expectations to include a graduate degree by 1998 or who had always 

expected to get a graduate degree (8 percent) were less likely than students in other groups (24–

41 percent) to have departed from postsecondary education during the same period. 

 

6

This variable combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. See the 

glossary for further details about the categories of this variable. 

Table 7-B.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 7-B.—who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by institution-related characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 17.2 6.4 6.8 4.0 

Social integration

 Low 34.7 13.8 13.9 7.1 

 High 11.5 2.9 5.3 3.4 

Academic integration

 Low 33.3 13.0 13.4 6.9 

 High 13.1 3.7 5.9 3.6 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 12.2 3.1 5.7 3.3 

 With parents or other relatives 27.8 12.7 9.5 5.6 

 Other 43.5 20.4 15.2 7.8 

Institution graduation rate*

 33 percent or less 39.1 18.9 12.5 7.7 

 34–67 percent 20.1 6.3 9.6 4.2 

 More than 67 percent 6.7 3.0 1.5 2.2 

*Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by

institutions in IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

32 

Other changes in students’ personal lives have also been cited as factors in their leaving 

postsecondary education (Bonham and Luckie 1993). Among students beginning at public 4-year 

institutions, those who had more dependents in 1998 than when they began postsecondary 

education had a higher rate of attrition during the 3-year period than those who had never had 

dependents (60 versus 16 percent). 

Table 7-C.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left without

Table 7-C.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by institution-related characteristics

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 43.6 23.9 13.0 6.8 

Social integration

 Low 48.6 26.9 14.3 7.3 

 High 29.9 10.4 11.9 7.6 

Academic integration

 Low 49.1 27.5 14.6 7.0 

 High 36.8 16.3 12.6 8.0 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 30.6 17.9 8.8 4.0 

 With parents or other relatives 41.2 20.3 13.7 7.2 

 Other 51.9 31.0 14.0 6.9 

Institution graduation rate*

 16 percent or less 42.9 27.4 10.4 5.1 

 17–33 percent 49.5 25.0 16.8 7.7 

 More than 33 percent 37.7 17.1 12.2 8.3 

*Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by

institutions in IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Unless otherwise specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

33 

 

Some of these relationships were also observed among students who began postsecondary 

education at private 4-year institutions in 1995–96 (table 8-B). While 9 percent of students 

whose educational expectations always included or increased to earning a graduate degree had 

left within 3 years of beginning college, 21–34 percent of other students did so. Also, those who 

had never had dependents were much less likely than others to have left. However, there was no 

difference found in the attrition rates of students who had transferred institutions and those who 

had not transferred during the 3-year period (19 and 17 percent, respectively). 

Table 8-A.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without

Table 8-A.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by change in family and education circumstances by

Table 8-A.—1998

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 18.8 7.3 7.5 4.1 

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 19.8 9.1 7.5 3.3 

 Transferred by 1998 15.0 0.2 7.6 7.2 

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 1998*

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 34.0 12.9 14.2 6.8 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 8.1 2.6 3.0 2.4 

 Clarified expectations 23.9 9.0 9.3 5.6 

 Don’t know in 1998 41.3 17.2 20.3 3.8 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 15.9 5.3 6.6 3.9 

 Increased number 60.3 36.7 20.4 3.3 

 Decreased or same number 44.2 24.3 11.1 8.8 

*Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

34 

Similar patterns were found among students who began at public 2-year colleges in 1995–

96. Those who had transferred to another institution by spring 1998 were less likely than those 

who did not transfer to have left postsecondary education altogether without a credential (14 

versus 54 percent; table 8-C). Public 2-year students who increased their educational 

expectations between 1995–96 and spring 1998 to include a graduate degree or who expected a 

graduate degree at both points in time were less likely than those who never expected a graduate 

degree, who decreased their expectations from a graduate degree, or who did not know their 

educational aspirations in 1998 to have left without a credential. As among students who began 

at 4-year institutions, public 2-year students who did not have dependents in 1995–96 or 1998 

were less likely than others to have left by 1998 without earning a credential. 

Table 8-B.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 8-B.—who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by change in family and education

Table 8-B.—circumstances by 1998

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 17.2 6.4 6.8 4.0 

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 16.7 8.0 5.6 3.1 

 Transferred by 1998 19.0 1.2 10.7 7.1 

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 1998*

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 33.6 12.9 13.7 7.0 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 8.9 1.5 4.1 3.3 

 Clarified expectations 21.3 10.8 7.0 3.6 

 Don’t know in 1998 29.2 19.1 5.8 4.4 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 13.8 4.4 5.6 3.8 

 Increased number 58.9 26.8 21.8 10.4 

 Decreased or same number 56.0 28.4 20.7 7.0 

*Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

35 

Factors Associated With Early Departure After Adjusting for Background Variation 

So far, the analysis of attrition from postsecondary education within 3 years of beginning 

postsecondary education has examined how departure is related to individual student or 

enrollment characteristics for each institution type under consideration. Of course, some of the 

characteristics associated with early departure may be correlated. For example, different 

nontraditional student characteristics may be associated with each other, and financial aid 

characteristics may be related to family income. As a result, this approach does not demonstrate 

the unique relationship between each factor and early attrition. Multivariate analyses were 

conducted to determine whether student background, academic, and other characteristics were 

Table 8-C.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left without

Table 8-C.—a credential and did not return by spring 1998, by change in family and education circumstances by

Table 8-C.—1998

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 43.6 23.9 13.0 6.8 

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 53.5 31.2 15.3 7.1 

 Transferred by 1998 13.9 1.9 6.1 5.9 

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 1998*

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 49.6 26.4 15.9 7.2 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 24.3 6.5 9.4 8.4 

 Clarified expectations 40.7 26.3 9.7 4.7 

 Don’t know in 1998 61.9 42.4 13.0 6.6 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 37.0 20.1 11.0 5.9 

 Increased number 61.0 29.1 20.6 11.2 

 Decreased or same number 54.0 31.4 16.1 6.6 

*Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

36 

related to departure when controlling for the other factors. For more information about this 

methodology, see appendix B. 

As in the tables above, multivariate analyses of departure were conducted separately for 

students who began at public 4-year, private not-for-profit 4-year, and public 2-year institutions. 

For students who began at public or private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, variables found in 

the previous analyses to be associated with departure for students at one or both types of 4-year 

institutions were included in the multivariate models. Likewise, for students who began at public 

2-year institutions, variables that had observed relationships with attrition for public 2-year 

students were included in the multivariate model. Results for public 4-year, private not-for-profit 

4-year, and public 2-year institutions are shown in tables 9, 10, and 11, respectively. In each 

table, the first column shows the unadjusted percentage of students who left college as presented 

above. Regression coefficients were used to generate the adjusted percentages shown in the 

second column (holding the other variables in the table constant). For each row variable in the 

table, the category in italics is the reference category, the one against which the other categories 

of the variable are compared in tests of statistical significance. Numbers designated with 

asterisks in the first and second columns indicate that the percentage of students in that category 

who left college is significantly different from the percentage for the reference category. Rows 

containing an asterisk in the first but not the second column are cases in which the adjustment 

procedure leads to a different conclusion than one would reach based on the unadjusted 

percentages only. 

Since most of the variables shown in the previous tables were found to be associated with 

departure among students who began at public 4-year institutions, the model shown in table 9 is 

quite large. Hispanic students were still less likely than Black, non-Hispanic students to leave 

college. Students who delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school were still more likely 

to leave college than those who did not delay, while age was no longer related to attrition once 

delayed enrollment and other factors were taken into account. Employed students who 

considered themselves to be primarily employees were more likely than others to depart, while 

employment status itself (full-time, part-time, or no employment) was no longer related to 

departure when other variables were controlled. Students’ initial degree objective was still 

related to departure: those who did not plan to get a bachelor’s degree at the initial institution 

were more likely than those who did seek a bachelor’s there to leave. However, students’ 

eventual educational expectations were no longer related to leaving once their initial objective 

and other variables were taken into account. Also, in the multivariate model, lower grades during 

the first year of enrollment were associated with a greater likelihood of attrition than were higher 

grades, while admissions test scores were no longer related to departure. 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

37 

Table 9.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without a

Table 9.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of

Table 9.—the variables in the table, by selected characteristics

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 18.8 18.8 -3.40 5.66 

Race/ethnicity

 White, non-Hispanic 19.6 19.7 -1.77 2.69 

 Black, non-Hispanic 25.4 21.4 † † 

 Hispanic 13.6* 13.4* -8.09 3.31 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 10.5* 15.7 -5.76 3.93 

 Other 13.1 18.3 -3.17 7.88 

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 23.8* 21.2 2.84 2.50 

 Middle two quartiles 18.8 17.9 -0.41 1.92 

 Highest quartile 15.2 18.3 † † 

First generation status

 First-generation college student 25.0* 20.2 1.92 1.76 

 Not first-generation 14.5 18.2 † † 

Age

 18 or younger 15.5 19.7 † † 

 19–23 21.7* 18.2 -1.48 1.91 

 24 or older 46.0* 11.7 -7.96 6.95 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 15.5 17.5 † † 

 Delayed 33.2* 24.3* 6.83 2.66 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 17.2* 18.9 -4.06 3.80 

 Mixed 14.9* 15.2 -7.76 4.37 

 Part time 47.2 23.0 † † 

Dependency status

 Dependent 16.7 18.9 † † 

 Independent 42.0* 18.3 -0.61 5.68 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 12.9* 16.7 -2.50 1.65 

 Worked part time 18.7 19.2 † † 

 Worked full time 38.5* 24.5 5.23 2.71 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

38 

Table 9.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without a

Table 9.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of

Table 9.—the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Ever married

 Never married 17.5 19.2 † † 

 Currently or previously married 47.0* 11.4 -7.80 7.00 

Any dependents

 No dependents 17.3 18.4 † † 

 Had dependents 46.7* 29.7 11.30 12.81 

Single parent

 Not single parent 18.0 19.1 † † 

 Single parent 39.6* 4.9 -14.20 8.95 

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 18.6 18.6 † † 

 Other 35.6 30.2* 11.59 5.72 

Primary role

 Primarily or exclusively student 16.4 18.3 † † 

 Primarily employee 44.0* 25.6* 7.33 3.18 

Initial degree objective5

 Less than bachelor’s 39.6* 27.7* 9.81 2.87 

 Bachelor’s 16.0 17.9 † † 

Eventual education expectations6

 Don’t know 24.4* 12.5 -8.59 8.91 

 Less than bachelor’s 58.1* 21.2 0.16 6.55 

 Bachelor’s 28.3* 18.7 -2.41 2.26 

 Advanced degree 13.5 21.1 † † 

First term enrolled

 Fall 17.7 19.3 † † 

 Other 35.9* 12.8 -6.44 3.42 

Any remedial courses 1995–96

 No remedial courses 17.8 18.5 † † 

 Any remedial courses 24.3* 20.6 2.16 2.12 

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 8.8 11.3 † † 

 Under 2.75 27.8* 25.8* 14.50 1.59 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

39 

Table 9.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without a

Table 9.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of

Table 9.—the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Combined SAT scores7

 Not available 33.5* 15.8 -2.30 3.22 

 1000 or below 20.1 18.1 † † 

 Over 1000 12.5* 21.0 2.91 1.85 

Financial aid amount

 No financial aid 20.2* 19.1 1.44 2.44 

 $3,000 or less 22.0* 20.6 2.94 2.38 

 $3,001–$6,000 19.5* 17.3 -0.30 2.40 

 More than $6,000 12.5 17.6 † † 

Price of attendance8

 $6,000 or less 44.5* 31.8* 17.40 3.33 

 $6,001–$9,000 20.5* 20.1* 5.73 2.35 

 $9,001–$12,000 12.7 14.7 0.31 2.15 

 More than $12,000 8.7 14.4 † † 

Social integration

 Low 28.1* 18.9 0.02 1.86 

 High 14.6 18.8 † † 

Academic integration

 Low 31.1* 24.2* 7.12 1.85 

 High 15.0 17.1 † † 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 14.7 19.8 † † 

 With parents or other relatives 22.4* 16.1 -3.67 2.18 

 Other 27.9* 19.6 -0.19 2.47 

Institution graduation rate9

 33 percent or less 28.4* 20.2* 6.82 2.99 

 34–67 percent 18.9* 19.7* 6.28 2.35 

 More than 67 percent 4.9 13.4 † † 

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 19.8 20.7 † † 

 Transferred by 1998 15.0* 11.5* -9.18 1.90 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

40 

Table 9.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 4-year institutions who left without a

Table 9.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of

Table 9.—the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 199810

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 34.0* 25.3* 15.26 2.00 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 8.1 10.0 † † 

 Clarified expectations 23.9* 29.6* 19.58 9.17 

 Don’t know in 1998 41.3* 34.3* 24.27 5.21 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 15.9 17.3 † † 

 Increased number 60.3* 43.2* 25.89 4.22 

 Decreased or same number 44.2* 29.3 11.96 11.94 

*p < .05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

6

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

7

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Nine percent of

students beginning at public 4-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

8

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

9

Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by

institutions in IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

10

Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

NOTE: The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

41 

Table 10.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 10.—the who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling

Table 10.—for covariation of the variables in the table, by selected characteristics

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 17.2 17.2 -8.59 6.16 

Race/ethnicity

 White, non-Hispanic 16.1 18.0 5.89 3.61 

 Black, non-Hispanic 22.7 12.1 † † 

 Hispanic 23.8 18.2 6.13 4.43 

 Asian/Pacific Islander 10.3* 14.9 2.74 5.07 

 Other (#) (#) (#) (#) 

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 26.5 19.3 † † 

 Middle two quartiles 16.9* 16.8 -2.45 2.69 

 Highest quartile 11.3* 16.2 -3.05 3.24 

First generation status

 First-generation college student 28.7* 21.5* 5.77 2.43 

 Not first-generation 12.8 15.7 † † 

Age

 18 or younger 13.3 18.4 † † 

 19–23 20.7* 18.2 -0.21 2.46 

 24 or older 45.1* (

5

) -23.01 8.88 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 13.6 16.4 † † 

 Delayed 33.8* 20.8 4.40 3.57 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 14.1 16.5 † † 

 Mixed 31.0* 25.3* 8.80 4.18 

 Part time 50.8* 20.1 3.68 5.92 

Dependency status

 Dependent 14.4 17.4 † † 

 Independent 44.5* 14.4 -2.98 6.83 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 14.6* 18.2 0.40 4.14 

 Worked part time 13.9* 16.4 -1.38 3.93 

 Worked full time 37.8 17.8 † † 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

42 

Table 10.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 10.—the who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling

Table 10.—for covariation of the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Ever married

 Never married 15.3 16.4 † † 

 Currently or previously married 62.4* 36.3* 19.89 8.22 

Any dependents

 No dependents 15.4 17.3 † † 

 Had dependents 58.4* 13.9 -3.32 18.55 

Single parent

 Not single parent 16.2 17.2 † † 

 Single parent 47.2* 15.4 -1.83 13.42 

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 16.6 17.2 † † 

 Other 37.4* 17.1 -0.12 6.55 

Primary role

 Primarily or exclusively student 14.4 17.0 † † 

 Primarily employee 42.5* 19.7 2.68 4.79 

Initial degree objective6

 Less than bachelor’s 45.5* 30.2* 14.47 3.72 

 Bachelor’s 13.1 15.8 † † 

Eventual education expectations7

 Don’t know 22.2* 26.7 11.84 14.51 

 Less than bachelor’s (#) (#) (#) (#) 

 Bachelor’s 26.1* 10.7 -4.18 3.16 

 Advanced degree 11.7 14.9 † † 

First term enrolled

 Fall 15.8 17.1 † † 

 Other 42.5* 17.6 0.45 5.35 

Any remedial courses 1995–96

 No remedial courses 15.6 17.4 † † 

 Any remedial courses 21.9 15.3 -2.11 3.37 

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 8.5 10.6 † † 

 Under 2.75 28.9* 25.7* 15.06 2.08 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

43 

Table 10.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 10.—the who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling

Table 10.—for covariation of the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Combined SAT scores8

 Not available 44.31* 20.4 5.06 4.68 

 1000 or below 19.8 15.3 † † 

 Over 1000 7.9* 18.5 3.20 2.47 

Financial aid amount

 No financial aid 18.1 19.0 2.00 3.30 

 $6,000 or less 25.2* 16.3 -0.74 3.02 

 $6,001– $12,000 16.3 17.0 -0.03 2.83 

 More than $12,000 9.8 17.0 † † 

Price of attendance9

 $15,000 or less 36.9* 26.5* 11.67 4.23 

 $15,001–$20,000 10.5* 11.8 -2.99 3.67 

 $20,001–$25,000 7.8 12.8 -1.96 3.38 

 More than $25,000 4.8 14.8 † † 

Social integration

 Low 34.7* 22.3* 6.50 3.06 

 High 11.5 15.8 † † 

Academic integration

 Low 33.3* 21.1 4.69 2.95 

 High 13.1 16.4 † † 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 12.2 18.3 † † 

 With parents or other relatives 27.8* 11.8* -6.49 3.26 

 Other 43.5* 16.9 -1.41 5.43 

Institution graduation rate10

 33 percent or less 39.1* 22.8* 9.42 4.51 

 34–67 percent 20.1* 19.0 5.60 2.87 

 More than 67 percent 6.7 13.4 † † 

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 16.7 18.6 † † 

 Transferred by 1998 19.0 12.3* -6.23 2.43 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

44 

Table 10.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions

Table 10.—the who left without a credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling

Table 10.—for covariation of the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

 Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 199811

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 33.6* 29.0* 13.52 2.91 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 8.9 15.5 † † 

 Clarified expectations 21.3* 10.5 -5.02 14.91 

 Don’t know in 1998 29.2* 21.8 6.26 9.07 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 13.8 15.5 † † 

 Increased number 58.9* 41.5* 25.96 5.45 

 Decreased or same number 56.0* 38.3 22.83 19.52 

#Too small to report.

*p < .05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Adjusted percentage calculated from regression coefficients is below zero, outside the range of possible percentages.

6

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

7

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

8

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Ten percent of

students beginning at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

9

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

10

Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by

institutions in IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

11

Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

NOTE: The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

45 

Table 11.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left without a

Table 11.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of

Table 11.—the variables in the table, by selected characteristics

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 43.6 43.6 50.13 16.79 

Age

 18 or younger 33.6* 42.9 1.57 11.11 

 19–23 42.1* 46.2 4.89 9.59 

 24 or older 59.5 41.3 † † 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 33.1 43.8 † † 

 Delayed 55.4* 43.5 -0.28 7.45 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 33.4* 42.5 -2.22 6.62 

 Mixed 37.1* 43.9 -0.81 7.02 

 Part time 58.0 44.7 † † 

Dependency status

 Dependent 35.6 38.4 † † 

 Independent 59.0* 54.5 16.17 10.04 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 43.1* 37.2* -15.76 7.22 

 Worked part time 32.7* 39.3* -13.71 5.48 

 Worked full time 59.0 53.0 † † 

Ever married

 Never married 39.1 42.9 † † 

 Currently or previously married 60.4* 46.4 3.53 8.54 

Any dependents

 No dependents 40.4 49.2 † † 

 Had dependents 55.4* 20.9 -28.27 16.22 

Primary role

 Primarily or exclusively student 38.6 43.9 † † 

 Primarily employee 57.7* 42.9 -1.06 5.84 

Initial degree objective5

 None 64.2 59.0 † † 

 Certificate 43.6* 22.8* -36.21 8.89 

 Associate’s 42.4* 43.0* -16.00 7.44 

 Bachelor’s or transfer to 4-year 33.3* 45.9 -13.15 8.08 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

46 

Table 11.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left without a

Table 11.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of

Table 11.—the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Eventual education expectations6

 Don’t know 48.1 49.2 6.91 14.71 

 Less than bachelor’s 60.3* 42.4 0.08 8.35 

 Bachelor’s 42.4 41.9 -0.46 5.90 

 Advanced degree 33.7 42.3 † † 

Primary reason for enrolling7

 Job skills 58.1* 47.4 8.07 7.11 

 Degree or certificate 46.4* 43.2 3.90 6.30 

 Transfer to 4-year 29.3 39.3 † † 

 Other transfer 64.1* 66.9* 27.61 13.97 

 Personal enrichment 54.6* 45.5 6.17 6.92 

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 38.4 37.8 † † 

 Under 2.75 47.2* 47.9* 10.15 4.58 

Combined SAT scores8

 Not available 53.9 47.7 † † 

 1000 or below 29.4* 37.3 -10.39 5.57 

 Over 1000 20.4* 40.4 -7.23 10.35 

Price of attendance9

 $3,000 or less 60.2* 48.9 8.70 7.55 

 $3,001–$6,000 39.1 42.3 2.16 5.41 

 More than $6,000 32.9 40.2 † † 

Social integration

 Low 48.6* 44.0 1.44 5.54 

 High 29.9 42.5 † † 

Academic integration

 Low 49.1* 41.4 -5.46 4.80 

 High 36.8 46.9 † † 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 30.6* 51.8 11.86 10.83 

 With parents or other relatives 41.2 45.0 5.02 5.99 

 Other 51.9 39.9 † † 

See footnotes at end of table.
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

47 

Table 11.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students at public 2-year institutions who left without a

Table 11.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, and adjusted percentage controlling for the covariation of

Table 11.—the variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 53.5 51.3 † † 

 Transferred by 1998 13.9* 20.7* -30.60 5.61 

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 199810

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 49.6* 48.3 11.14 5.97 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 24.3 37.1 † † 

 Clarified expectations 40.7 34.3 -2.82 15.46 

 Don’t know in 1998 61.9* 55.3 18.13 10.34 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 37.0 38.0 † † 

 Increased number 61.0* 56.1* 18.12 8.23 

 Decreased or same number 54.0* 59.9 21.87 16.57 

*p < .05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

6

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

7

Applies only to students who began at public 2-year institutions.

8

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Sixty percent of

students beginning at public 2-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

9

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

10

Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

NOTE: The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

48 

Price of attendance was related to attrition in the multivariate analysis. Students whose 

price of attendance was $9,000 or below were more likely to leave than those whose price of 

attendance was more than $12,000. However, after taking other variables into consideration, 

financial aid was not associated with departure. This combination of results suggests that the rate 

of departure is lower at higher priced public 4-year institutions, after taking financial aid and 

other variables into account. 

In addition, low academic integration was still associated with a higher rate of attrition in 

the multivariate model, as were lower institutional graduation rates. Finally, changes in 

institution, education expectations, and number of dependents were still associated with 

departure in the multivariate model. Students who transferred to a different institution were less 

likely to leave postsecondary education altogether. Students whose educational expectations 

remained high or increased were more likely than other groups to remain enrolled. And students 

who had children during the 3-year period were more likely to have dropped out than students 

who never had dependents. 

Some of these results were also found among students who began at private not-for-profit 

institutions (table 10). Beginning postsecondary students who had objectives that did not include 

a bachelor’s degree from the initial institution had a higher rate of attrition, whereas their 

eventual educational expectations were no longer associated with departure in the multivariate 

model. Students whose grades averaged less than 2.75 were more likely than those whose grades 

were higher to leave postsecondary education once admissions test scores and other variables 

were taken into account. Students who had more dependents in 1998 than when they began 

college were more likely to leave than those who had never had dependents. 

In addition, similar relationships between departure and financial aid and price of 

attendance were found among students who began at private 4-year institutions. Students in the 

highest category of price of attendance were less likely to leave than those in the lowest 

category, while no relationship of financial aid to departure was found in the regression analysis. 

Again, this combination of results suggests that attrition is lower at higher priced institutions, 

even within institution types. 

Other results for private not-for-profit 4-year institutions differed from those for public 4-

year institutions. Low social integration (rather than low academic integration, as was found at 

public institutions) was associated with a higher rate of attrition among students who began at 

private 4-year colleges and universities. Students whose attendance intensity during their first 

year of enrollment was mixed were more likely to leave than those who attended full time after 

considering other factors. And students who had been married were more likely than those who 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

49 

were never married to have departed by spring 1998 in the multivariate analysis for private 4-

year institutions. 

While a number of significant relationships were found in the multivariate models for 4-

year institutions, relatively few factors were significant for public 2-year institutions. Many of 

those factors that were related to departure in the multivariate analysis, however, were also found 

to be significant for public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions. Initial degree objectives 

from the first institution were related to departure at community colleges as well as at 4-year 

institutions. Students who planned to get a certificate or an associate’s degree from the 

community college where they began were less likely to have left within 3 years than students 

who did not plan to get any kind of credential from the institution. Also, lower grades during the 

first year of enrollment were associated with a higher rate of departure when other variables were 

taken into account, and students who had transferred to other institutions by spring 1998 were 

less likely to have left postsecondary education altogether. Finally, students who had more 

children during the 3-year period again had a higher rate of departure than did students who 

never had any dependents. 

Employment while enrolled was related to departure among students who began at 

community colleges when other factors were controlled, a relationship that was not detected 

among students who began at 4-year institutions. Students who did not work or who worked part 

time were less likely to leave without a credential than students who worked full time during 

their first year of postsecondary education even after other factors were taken into account. 

Summary

This section of the report has focused on factors associated with departure without a 

credential from postsecondary education within 3 academic years of first enrollment. Students 

who began at public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions were less likely than those who 

began at public 2-year institutions to leave postsecondary education during this period. 

In both bivariate and multivariate analyses, several factors were associated with departure 

at all three types of institutions. Initial degree objectives from the first institution at which the 

student enrolled were associated with departure in all types of institutions, with lower objectives 

generally associated with a higher rate of departure. Educational plans did vary by institution 

type, with students who began at public 2-year institutions generally having lower expectations 

or initial degree objectives than those who began at public or private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions as well as having a wide range of reasons for enrolling at a community college. Still, 

students who began at community colleges did have relatively high goals, with approximately 
Early Attrition From Postsecondary Education 

50 

one-third (29 percent) expecting to eventually complete an advanced degree and 38 percent 

claiming that their primary reason for enrollment was to transfer to a 4-year institution. 

Lower academic performance during the first year of enrollment was associated with a 

higher rate of attrition at all three types of institutions, even when controlling for the many other 

factors associated with departure. Finally, transfer between institutions and change in dependents 

from students’ initial entry into college until 1998 were generally associated with departure, even 

when other variables were taken into account. For example, among students beginning at all 

three types of institutions, those who transferred to another institution were less likely to have 

left college altogether, and students who had more children during the 3-year period had higher 

rates of attrition than those who never had dependents. These relationships demonstrate that 

changes can occur during students’ postsecondary enrollment that may attenuate the effects of 

their initial enrollment characteristics. 

Other characteristics, however, were associated with departure from 4-year institutions, but 

not with departure from public 2-year institutions. A higher price of attendance was associated 

with a lower likelihood of attrition at 4-year institutions, while this relationship was not found 

among students who began at public 2-year institutions. In addition, among students who began 

at 4-year institutions, attending colleges with higher graduation rates was associated with lower 

attrition. However, this relationship was not detected among students who began at public 2-year 

institutions. 
51 

Reasons for Early Departure 

Up to this point, this report has examined factors associated with departure from 

postsecondary education within 3 years of first entering a postsecondary institution. However, as 

described in the introduction, most studies of the reasons that students themselves give for 

leaving college are limited in scope, and an exploration of what student and enrollment 

characteristics are associated with students’ own accounts of their attrition has not been carried 

out on a nationally representative scale. This section looks only at those students who did leave 

college without a credential within 3 years of entry, describing the reasons they gave for their 

departure and the factors associated with those reasons. 

What Reasons Did Short-Term Enrollees Give for Their Departure? 

The 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who had left by 1998 without a credential 

gave a variety of reasons for their departure (table 12 and figure 5). Students were generally 

more likely to say that they left because they needed to work or for other financial reasons than 

to give other reasons. About one-quarter (26 percent) of leavers cited needing to work as a 

reason for their departure, and 16 percent identified other financial reasons. Ten percent said that 

they had completed the classes they wanted or that they had conflicts at home or personal 

problems; 8 percent cited a change in their family status; 7 percent said they were taking time off 

from their studies; 6 percent indicated conflicts with their jobs or said that they were not 

satisfied; and 4 percent identified academic problems as a cause of their departure. Although 

short-term enrollees could identify up to three reasons for their departure, most (61 percent) 

identified only one of the reasons considered here, and about one-quarter (24 percent) did not 

cite any of these reasons.7

 

Among students who left, those who began at 4-year institutions were more likely than 

those who began at public 2-year institutions to say that they left because of academic problems 

(9 versus 2 percent) or a change in family status (12 versus 6 percent; table 12). Those who 

began at public 2-year institutions were more likely than those who began at 4-year institutions 

to say they left because they were done taking the classes they wanted (12 versus 5 percent) or 

because they needed to work (29 versus 17 percent). 

 

7

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996–98 Beginning Postsecondary Students 

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98), Data Analysis System. 
Reasons for Early Departure 

52 

Table 12.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Table 12.—reasons for their departure, by first institution type and last year of enrollment

 Done Conflicts

 taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

Academic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

 problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

 Total 4.0 10.0 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.7 6.2 25.6 15.6

First institution type

 4-year 9.2 4.7 8.9 7.4 12.4 12.0 3.3 16.8 19.3

 Public 4-year 11.1 4.8 8.1 7.8 11.3 11.0 2.9 16.9 17.0

 Private not-for-profit 4-year 4.7 4.4 10.9 6.6 14.9 14.4 4.3 16.5 24.5

 Public 2-year 2.0 12.0 5.2 7.1 5.8 8.7 7.2 29.0 14.2

Last year of enrollment

 1995–96 3.3 14.2 7.6 4.0 7.5 8.4 6.2 23.4 13.3

 1996–97 4.3 7.2 5.1 9.6 9.1 10.6 6.4 25.9 17.2

 1997–98 5.9 1.0 3.9 13.6 4.9 12.2 5.6 33.0 20.4

#Too small to report.

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Excludes

students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year institutions, public less-than-2-year institutions, or private for-profit

institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Figure 5.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Figure 5.—reasons for their departure

NOTE: Respondents could give up to three reasons, including other reasons not listed here. Sixty-one percent identified only

one of these reasons, and 24 percent did not cite any of these reasons.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

10

6 4 7 8 10

6

26

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

Academic

problems

Done

taking

desired

classes

Not

satisfied

Taking

time off

Change in

family

status

Conflicts

at home/

personal

problems

Conflicts

with job/

military

Needed to

work

Other

financial

reasons

Percent
Reasons for Early Departure 

53 

Among students who began at 4-year institutions and subsequently left without a 

credential, students from public institutions were more likely than those from private not-forprofit institutions to say they left because of academic problems (11 versus 5 percent) and less 

likely to say they left for other financial reasons (17 versus 24 percent). Otherwise, no 

differences were detected in the reasons given by short-term enrollees from public and private 

not-for-profit 4-year institutions.8 

The previous section showed that a greater proportion of students left in the first year of 

postsecondary enrollment than in subsequent years, at least among community college students. 

Among beginning postsecondary students who left within 3 years, those who had left more 

recently were less likely to say that they left because they were done taking the classes they 

wanted. While 14 percent of students who left in their first year gave this reason, 1 percent of 

those who left in the third year of enrollment did so. Other reasons for departure, however, were 

not found to be associated with the year that students left college. 

What Factors Were Associated With Reasons for Early Departure? 

Student Background Characteristics 

Among beginning postsecondary students who left within 3 academic years, women were 

more likely than men to say that they left because of a change in family status or because of 

conflicts at home or personal problems (table 13). This result is consistent with observations in 

the literature that women are more likely to leave for these reasons because of their greater 

responsibilities for other family members (Bonham and Luckie 1993). In contrast, men were 

more likely than women to say they left because of academic problems or because they needed to 

work. 

White students who left were more likely than Asian students to say they left because of 

conflicts with their jobs, and Black students who left were more likely than Asian students to say 

they left because of financial reasons other than needing to work. While it appeared that other 

reasons for departure were associated with race/ethnicity, the standard errors for several groups 

were very large and the differences were not statistically significant. 

Higher income students who left were less likely than their lower income counterparts to 

say that they left because of a change in family status. For example, 2 percent of high-income 

 

8

Because of the relatively few differences in reasons between students from the two types of 4-year institutions and because the

sample sizes of students who departed are small, students from public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions are combined 

in additional analyses below. 
Reasons for Early Departure 

54 

leavers cited this reason, while 12 percent of low-income students did so. In addition, students in 

the middle two income quartiles were more likely than those in the highest quartile to leave 

because they needed to work (30 versus 13 percent), and there was some evidence that students 

in the lowest income quartile were also more likely to cite this reason.9 Finally, students whose 

parents had not gone to college were more likely to leave because they were done taking their 

desired classes than those with college-educated parents (12 versus 5 percent). 

Although short-term enrollees cited academic problems relatively infrequently as a reason 

for their departure, the evidence from the first section of this report showed that first-year grades 

 

9

The difference between students in the lowest and highest income quartiles was significant at the 0.10 level rather than the 0.05 

level.

Table 13.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Table 13.—reasons for their departure, by student background characteristics

 Done Conflicts

 taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

 cademic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

 problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

 Total 4.0 10.0 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.7 6.2 25.6 15.6

Gender

 Male 6.1 10.0 7.9 7.6 3.9 6.2 7.3 31.3 13.0

 Female 2.1 9.9 4.8 6.9 10.9 12.8 5.1 20.5 17.9

Race/ethnicity

 White, non-Hispanic 4.1 10.2 5.6 7.8 8.2 7.6 5.4 26.7 13.1

 Black, non-Hispanic 1.9 4.8 10.3 2.6 6.1 15.0 9.8 18.2 28.7

 Hispanic 5.1 10.1 6.7 10.3 6.3 14.9 8.4 25.3 14.0

 Asian/Pacific Islander 8.3 25.2 2.1 6.9 9.1 13.6 0.1 36.1 5.2

 Other (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#)

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 3.2 7.3 7.3 7.5 11.8 10.0 5.7 25.3 14.7

 Middle two quartiles 3.7 10.0 6.1 6.6 6.9 8.1 5.3 30.3 16.9

 Highest quartile 6.8 15.8 5.2 9.2 2.3 15.0 10.6 12.8 14.2

First generation status

 First-generation college student 2.7 12.1 7.1 4.9 9.1 12.2 8.5 26.6 14.4

 Not first-generation 5.4 4.9 7.4 6.3 7.8 8.2 5.9 24.1 16.1

#Too small to report.

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Excludes

students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year institutions, public less-than-2-year institutions, or private for-profit

institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

55 

were consistently associated with attrition in all institution types. There was some evidence that 

students with nontraditional characteristics who left were less likely than their counterparts 

without these characteristics to cite academic problems as a cause of departure from 

postsecondary education (table 14). Students who enrolled full time during their first year were 

more likely than other students to cite this reason (7 versus 0.2–2 percent). In addition, those 

who did not have dependents or who were not single parents were more likely than those with 

dependents or who were single parents to cite academic problems, and those with regular high 

school diplomas were more likely than those who had completed high school in some other way 

to do so. Finally, students who worked more hours while enrolled during their first year of 

postsecondary education were less likely to say they left because of academic problems. 

On the other hand, students with nontraditional characteristics who left postsecondary 

education without a credential were more likely to say they were done taking the classes they 

wanted. For example, 23 percent of leavers who were 24 years old or more when they began 

postsecondary education gave this reason, compared with 5 percent of younger students who left. 

Independent students, those who had ever been married, and those who enrolled part time during 

their first year of college were more likely than others to indicate that they were done taking 

classes. 

Students with nontraditional characteristics who left were also less likely than students 

without such characteristics to indicate that they had done so because they needed to work. For 

example, 31 percent of dependent students gave this reason, compared with 19 percent of 

independent students. Similarly, about 3 in 10 students who had never been married (30 percent) 

or who had no dependents (29 percent) said that they needed to work, compared with 13 percent 

of students who had ever married and 15 percent of students with dependents.10 

Among short-term enrollees who were employed during their first year of enrollment, those 

who said that their primary role was as an employee rather than as a student were more likely 

than those who said they were primarily students to say that they left because they were done 

taking the classes they wanted (15 versus 6 percent; table 15). Other differences by primary role 

were not detected, however. 

 

10While it appeared that students who went to college within a year of completing high school were more likely than those who 

delayed entry to leave because they needed to work, standard errors were large and this difference was not statistically 

significant. 
Reasons for Early Departure 

56 

Table 14.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Table 14.—reasons for their departure, by nontraditional student characteristics

Done Conflicts

taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

cademic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

 Total 4.0 10.0 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.7 6.2 25.6 15.6

Age

 18 or younger 5.4 4.7 6.7 10.7 7.7 10.3 2.6 32.7 16.8

 19–23 4.1 5.3 8.2 6.1 8.4 8.7 10.8 25.6 16.3

 24 or older 2.1 23.3 3.5 4.3 6.8 10.4 5.3 17.3 13.7

Delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 5.3 3.8 7.1 8.8 8.4 9.2 3.7 30.5 16.7

 Delayed 2.8 15.4 5.8 6.1 6.8 7.9 6.8 20.8 15.3

Attendance intensity

 Full time 7.1 5.2 6.9 5.3 11.7 11.4 5.5 24.5 14.6

 Mixed 0.2 2.0 7.7 17.2 4.8 7.2 5.4 37.4 16.9

 Part time 2.1 18.7 5.4 6.1 4.3 9.2 7.5 21.6 16.7

Dependency status

 Dependent 5.3 4.3 8.1 9.1 7.1 7.6 4.6 30.8 18.2

 Independent 2.2 19.6 3.3 5.1 8.5 12.6 10.0 19.0 12.9

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 7.9 9.1 5.8 6.7 10.7 12.8 6.1 22.8 11.9

 Worked part time 5.1 5.4 11.4 4.6 8.5 8.1 5.1 23.2 19.6

 Worked full time 1.7 16.1 2.6 8.5 4.9 10.4 9.0 22.8 17.8

Ever married

 Never married 4.5 5.8 7.1 8.5 6.7 8.5 6.0 29.5 16.3

 Currently or previously married 2.4 23.2 3.7 3.2 10.5 13.1 6.5 13.4 13.6

Any dependents

 No dependents 5.1 7.7 6.8 8.6 7.6 6.8 4.6 29.1 15.3

 Had dependents 0.4 17.2 4.6 3.6 7.2 18.7 13.8 15.4 19.3

Single parent

 Not single parent 4.5 9.5 6.4 8.4 7.6 8.2 5.3 27.5 15.7

 Single parent 0.8 10.7 6.0 0.1 6.1 19.3 17.5 14.7 19.5

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 4.4 8.7 6.8 8.0 7.4 8.7 4.5 26.8 16.1

 Other 0.4 19.9 2.2 1.1 9.4 17.0 19.2 16.0 11.3

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Row variables

are for the 1995–96 academic year. Excludes students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year institutions, public less-than2-year institutions, or private for-profit institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

57 

Students’ Educational Expectations and Other Academic Characteristics 

Consistent with their stated educational goals, among those who knew their educational 

expectations, those leavers with lower educational expectations were more likely to say that they 

left because they were done taking the classes they wanted (table 16). This was true both for 

eventual educational goals and for the degree objective at the first institution at which the 

students enrolled. Among students leaving postsecondary education who began at community 

colleges, those whose primary reason for enrolling initially was to obtain job skills were more 

likely than those who enrolled for other reasons to say they left because they were done with the 

classes they wanted (30 versus 3–8 percent). 

In addition, leavers who had identified their initial degree objective as an associate’s degree 

or higher were generally more likely to say that they left for other financial reasons than those 

who planned to complete a certificate or no degree (21 versus 7–8 percent). While it appeared 

that the same association was found for eventual educational expectations, the relationship was 

not statistically significant. 

Other academic characteristics were also associated with the reasons that short-term 

enrollees gave for their departure from postsecondary education. Students leaving postsecondary 

education who had lower first-year grades were more likely to leave for academic reasons (6 

versus 1 percent). In addition, those who began in the fall term were more likely to leave for 

academic reasons than those who began later in the year (5 versus 2 percent). Students who had 

Table 15.—Percentage of employed 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave

Table 15.—various reasons for their departure, by primary role while employed in 1995–96

 Done Conflicts

 taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

 cademic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

 problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

 Total 3.2 10.1 6.3 7.3 6.9 9.0 6.2 26.2 16.4

Primary role

 Student working to meet

 expenses 4.2 6.1 9.7 5.6 7.3 9.5 8.9 24.1 18.3

 Employee who is enrolled 2.3 15.5 3.4 8.4 6.1 8.5 5.1 23.2 18.0

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Excludes

students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year institutions, public less-than-2-year institutions, or private for-profit

institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

58 

Table 16.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Table 16.—reasons for their departure, by academic characteristics

Done Conflicts

taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

cademic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

 Total 4.0 10.0 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.7 6.2 25.6 15.6

Initial degree objective1

 None 5.2 28.8 6.2 2.9 5.4 9.4 3.5 15.9 7.4

 Certificate 0.0 17.4 1.5 1.0 4.1 4.8 11.1 30.2 7.8

 Associate’s 1.1 8.2 5.5 8.3 9.1 13.6 11.2 25.0 20.8

 Bachelor’s or 

 transfer to 4-year 8.0 2.3 10.7 8.1 7.2 8.1 3.7 21.1 20.7

Eventual education expectations2

 Don’t know 2.5 9.5 4.6 10.3 7.8 8.5 7.1 34.0 9.1

 Less than bachelor’s 4.4 21.6 3.1 2.8 4.7 14.2 9.1 23.6 8.8

 Bachelor’s 4.2 8.9 8.7 10.7 7.4 8.8 2.1 29.7 16.4

 Advanced degree 4.7 1.6 7.7 4.8 10.4 9.0 8.0 19.0 23.7

Primary reason for enrolling3

 Job skills 1.7 29.6 1.0 8.9 4.5 9.4 9.9 16.8 9.0

 Degree or certificate 1.8 7.7 6.6 5.6 8.6 15.2 10.7 20.8 22.4

 Transfer to 4-year 1.2 2.5 8.3 7.1 8.6 12.2 6.3 29.1 20.9

 Other transfer (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#) (#)

 Personal enrichment 3.9 6.2 12.1 1.5 4.8 3.1 7.4 32.1 8.2

First term enrolled

 Fall 4.7 10.2 5.8 8.2 6.6 8.4 4.9 27.0 16.0

 Other 1.7 9.7 8.3 4.1 11.6 14.9 11.1 22.0 14.9

Any remedial courses 1995–96

 No remedial courses 4.2 10.2 8.0 7.4 6.7 8.7 5.9 21.2 17.7

 Any remedial courses 4.0 8.5 2.9 5.1 9.8 14.3 10.8 29.5 13.5

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 1.2 18.9 2.6 7.7 8.1 8.3 4.4 26.9 12.1

 Under 2.75 5.5 5.8 8.3 7.1 7.6 10.0 7.1 25.4 17.3

Combined SAT scores4

 Not available 2.1 15.2 4.0 7.1 5.7 9.8 8.7 26.1 14.8

 1000 or below 5.4 3.1 10.2 6.5 10.0 9.6 2.8 26.8 15.5

 Over 1000 12.6 0.7 5.3 11.9 11.6 8.6 2.3 16.0 22.5

#Too small to report.

1

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

2

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

3

Applies only to students who began at public 2-year institutions.

4

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Among those who left

school without a credential, 74 percent of students who began at public 2-year institutions, 16 percent of students who began at 

public 4-year institutions, and 27 percent of students who began at private not-for-profit 4-year institutions were missing this

information. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Row variables

are for the 1995–96 academic year. Excludes students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year institutions, public

less-than-2-year institutions, or private for-profit institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

59 

taken remedial classes or whose grades were higher were less likely than those without 

remediation or with lower grades to say they left because they were not satisfied. 

Other Student and Institution Characteristics 

There were also differences in the reasons that short-term enrollees gave for leaving 

according to their financial aid characteristics (table 17). Students leaving postsecondary 

education who had received financial aid during their first year of enrollment were more likely 

than unaided students to say they left because of a change in family status (10 versus 5 percent). 

Otherwise, no differences in reasons for leaving were detected between aided and unaided 

students. 

Among leavers who received aid, those who had received larger amounts of aid were more 

likely than those receiving less aid to say they left because they were not satisfied and less likely 

to say they left because they were done taking the classes they wanted. For example, 11 percent 

of students receiving $3,000 or less in aid said they left because they were done, compared with 

1 percent of students receiving more aid. Also, those who received aid without loans were more 

likely to say they were done with their desired classes than those who received aid with loans (12 

versus 2 percent). Finally, those with a higher price of attendance were less likely to say they left 

because they were done taking the classes they wanted. 

Among students leaving postsecondary education, those with lower social integration at the 

first institution were less likely than those who were more integrated into the institution’s social 

life to leave for academic reasons and more likely to leave because they were done taking the 

classes they wanted (table 18). It may be the case that students who had only short-term goals for 

their postsecondary enrollment did not invest socially in the institutions they attended because 

they knew they would not be there for a long period of time (Tinto 1993). Alternatively, students 

with nontraditional characteristics (such as older independent students with families), who were 

more likely to say they left because they had achieved their goals, may also be less integrated 

socially into campus life than students who have more age peers on campus (Tinto 1993). 

Consistent with this possibility, students who initially lived in school-owned housing or with 

their parents or other relatives were also less likely than those with other housing arrangements 

to say they left because they were done with their desired classes (5–6 versus 17 percent). 

Students who began at institutions with higher graduation rates were more likely than 

students at institutions with lower graduation rates to say they left school because of conflicts at 

home. These short-term enrollees were also less likely to say they left because they needed to 

work, compared with those at schools graduating smaller proportions of their students. 
Reasons for Early Departure 

60 

Table 17.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Table 17.—reasons for their departure, by financial aid characteristics

Done Conflicts

taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

cademic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

Total

 Total 4.0 10.0 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.7 6.2 25.6 15.6 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 2.9 12.1 7.5 5.0 5.1 7.9 7.5 26.5 14.5 

 Received financial aid 5.1 8.2 5.3 9.5 10.1 11.5 5.1 25.4 17.0 

Financial aid amount1

 $3,000 or less 4.0 11.4 4.0 10.8 9.1 13.1 5.2 27.2 15.5 

 $3,001–$6,000 6.1 0.5 6.2 6.6 11.6 7.8 7.6 27.1 19.1 

 More than $6,000 9.5 1.4 10.6 6.3 13.8 8.0 1.2 14.3 22.3 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 3.4 12.1 4.2 11.5 8.1 13.4 6.2 24.4 15.3 

 Aided with loans 7.8 1.8 7.1 6.2 13.4 8.5 3.4 27.2 19.9 

Price of attendance2

 $6,000 or less 2.8 13.2 6.3 6.6 7.2 10.7 8.0 25.7 14.6 

 $6,001–$9,000 6.0 4.7 5.3 6.4 9.4 5.9 3.5 31.3 15.8 

 $9,001–$12,000 5.0 2.4 4.5 14.6 5.4 14.0 2.2 24.2 18.5 

 More than $12,000 9.9 2.3 12.6 9.6 10.1 8.0 2.1 11.9 25.9 

Full time

 Total 7.1 5.2 6.9 5.3 11.7 11.4 5.5 24.5 14.6 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 5.1 7.1 8.5 5.3 7.7 4.8 6.6 28.7 10.6 

 Received financial aid 8.0 4.3 6.1 5.3 13.8 14.8 5.0 22.4 16.6 

Financial aid amount1

 $3,000 or less 7.3 6.9 3.7 4.4 13.5 19.3 7.6 26.3 13.7 

 $3,001–$6,000 7.5 0.4 8.1 7.6 13.1 8.7 1.8 20.6 19.8 

 More than $6,000 10.5 1.6 10.6 5.3 15.0 9.0 1.2 14.0 21.2 

Financial aid package1

 Aided, no loans 6.1 8.6 4.1 4.0 12.8 20.3 8.8 21.3 13.7 

 Aided with loans 9.7 0.6 7.9 6.4 14.5 10.0 1.7 23.4 19.2 

Price of attendance2

 $6,000 or less 5.0 9.6 6.0 3.1 14.1 15.5 9.8 26.5 11.9 

 $6,001–$9,000 8.8 0.7 6.3 4.3 11.0 6.7 1.5 27.5 10.7 

 $9,001–$12,000 6.4 3.1 6.3 12.9 6.7 12.0 3.3 20.5 25.2 

 More than $12,000 11.4 2.6 13.0 9.4 9.1 7.6 1.9 12.5 25.9 

1

Excludes those without financial aid.

2

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Row variables

are for the 1995–96 academic year. Excludes students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year institutions, public less-than2-year institutions, or private for-profit institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

61 

Changes in students’ educational circumstances were also associated with the reasons they 

gave for departure from postsecondary education (table 19). Students leaving postsecondary 

education who had transferred between institutions were less likely than short-term enrollees 

who had not transferred to say they left because they were done with the classes they sought or 

because they had job conflicts. Compared with those who did not expect to get a graduate degree 

or who did not know in 1998 how much education they would complete, short-term enrollees 

whose eventual educational expectations always included or increased to a graduate degree were 

less likely to indicate that they left postsecondary education because they had completed the 

courses they wanted (2 versus 11–15 percent). 

Table 18.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Table 18.—reasons for their departure, by institution-related characteristics

 Done Conflicts

 taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

 cademic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

 problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

 Total 4.0 10.0 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.7 6.2 25.6 15.6 

Social integration

 Low 3.1 12.4 6.3 6.2 8.1 10.5 8.2 23.9 15.4 

 High 6.9 2.5 7.6 8.4 6.0 8.9 3.9 22.0 20.8 

Academic integration

 Low 3.2 14.2 4.7 7.4 8.0 8.0 7.1 23.3 14.2 

 High 5.4 3.4 9.5 5.9 6.9 13.0 7.1 23.5 20.5 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 11.6 5.8 11.2 10.3 9.0 6.9 1.9 20.7 23.1 

 With parents or other relatives 3.6 4.7 6.8 6.9 8.1 9.4 6.8 33.1 13.1 

 Other 1.3 17.3 3.4 6.7 6.7 11.2 7.6 19.0 15.4 

Institution graduation rate*

 33 percent or less 2.8 9.3 5.4 7.4 7.4 8.7 7.3 28.6 14.6 

 34–67 percent 7.1 9.5 6.8 7.6 7.5 8.9 2.4 23.1 19.6 

 More than 67 percent 3.6 26.0 14.3 5.2 11.4 30.7 13.4 2.9 8.9 

*Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by institutions in

IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Unless otherwise

specified, row variables are for the 1995–96 academic year. Excludes students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year

institutions, public less-than-2-year institutions, or private for-profit institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

62 

As expected, those postsecondary students leaving within 3 years who gained additional 

dependents during that time were much more likely than those who had never had dependents, or 

who had the same or a smaller number of dependents 3 years later, to say that they left because 

of a change in family status (29 versus 3–6 percent). Those who had never had dependents were 

more likely than others to say they left because of academic problems (6 versus 0.4–1 percent). 

They were also more likely than those who increased their number of dependents to say they left 

because they were not satisfied (8 versus 1 percent). 

Table 19.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students leaving by spring 1998 who gave various

Table 19.—reasons for their departure, by change in family and education circumstances by 1998

 Done Conflicts

 taking Change at home/ Conflicts Other

 cademic desired Not Taking in family personal with job/ Needed financial

 problems classes satisfied time off status problems military to work reasons

 Total 4.0 10.0 6.3 7.2 7.6 9.7 6.2 25.6 15.6 

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 3.9 10.7 6.0 6.6 7.7 9.7 6.7 25.3 15.5 

 Transferred by 1998 4.4 4.4 8.2 12.0 6.8 9.3 2.2 28.6 16.3 

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 1998*

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 4.7 10.9 7.5 7.5 8.2 9.5 4.4 23.3 18.8 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 4.2 2.0 8.1 4.7 5.1 11.7 9.2 23.3 15.7 

 Clarified expectations 3.4 7.0 3.7 12.8 10.8 10.1 4.8 39.0 8.8 

 Don’t know in 1998 1.9 15.1 4.3 5.1 7.4 9.0 12.5 26.6 10.6 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 5.9 7.6 8.0 9.6 3.0 7.4 4.4 30.3 16.5 

 Increased number 1.2 9.3 0.8 6.7 28.9 5.4 5.3 21.2 9.3 

 Decreased or same number 0.4 17.7 5.3 1.0 5.8 19.7 15.2 15.3 21.0 

*Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

NOTE: Includes students who left postsecondary education without a credential and without returning by spring 1998. Excludes

students who began at private not-for-profit less-than-4-year institutions, public less-than-2-year institutions, or private for-profit

institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

63 

Did Institution Type Differences in Reasons for Early Departure Persist? 

As shown for the analysis of departure from postsecondary education presented above, 

many of the factors associated with the reasons that short-term enrollees gave for their attrition 

may be correlated with one another. Because one purpose of this report is to focus on differences 

in the process of attrition for students who begin at various types of institutions, the remaining 

analyses are designed to explore those reasons for departure that differed by first institution type. 

For example, higher initial degree objectives and eventual educational expectations were 

associated with a lower likelihood of departing because students said they were done taking their 

desired courses (table 16). Both degree objectives and educational expectations were associated 

with the type of institution at which students began postsecondary education. As among all 

beginning students (including those who did not leave; figure 2), leavers who began at public 2-

year colleges were more likely than those who began at 4-year institutions to report that their 

initial degree goals were lower than a bachelor’s degree (figure 6). For example, while 19 

percent of short-term enrollees who began at public 2-year institutions had planned to transfer to 

a 4-year institution to complete a bachelor’s degree, about three-quarters (77 percent) of students 

who began at a 4-year institution had planned to complete a bachelor’s degree there. 

Differences in the reasons for departure between students with and without nontraditional 

characteristics are also consistent with the different types of students served by 4-year compared 

with public 2-year institutions. Students with several nontraditional characteristics who left were 

less likely than students without these characteristics to cite academic problems as a cause of 

departure from postsecondary education (table 14), a reason also cited more often by short-term 

enrollees who began at 4-year institutions (table 12). On the other hand, students with 

nontraditional characteristics who left postsecondary education without a credential were more 

likely to say they were done taking the classes they wanted, as were those who began at public 2-

year institutions. Among all beginning students as well as among those who left, students from 

public 2-year institutions were more likely than those from 4-year institutions to have each of the 

nontraditional student characteristics (figure 7). 

Some differences in the reasons for leaving given by students at 2-year versus 4-year 

institutions are not consistent with differences in the types of students these institutions serve. 

For example, students without nontraditional characteristics (who are more often found at 4-year 

institutions) who left were more likely than students with nontraditional characteristics to 

indicate that they left because they needed to work, a reason cited more often by students from 

public 2-year institutions. The remainder of this section presents multivariate analyses of those 

reasons for departure—including academic problems, being done with desired classes, change in 

family status, and needing to work—that were cited at different rates by students who began at 4- 
Reasons for Early Departure 

64 

year and at public 2-year institutions. For each reason, a multivariate analysis including the 

variables found to be related to that reason (as shown in tables 12–19) was conducted. The 

results are presented in tables 20 through 23, which can be interpreted in the same way as the 

results in tables 9–11. (For more information about the multivariate analysis strategy used in this 

report, consult appendix B.) 

Figure 6.—Percentage distribution of 1995–96 beginning students who left without a credential according to initial

Figure 6.—educational goals, by first institution type

1

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

2

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Eventual education expectations2

28.5

23.1

25.2 41.3

23.0 22.3

5.0

31.7

0 20 40 60 80 100

All 4-year

Public 2-year

Percent

Don’t know Less than bachelor’s Bachelor’s Advanced degree

Initial degree objective1

13.7

21.3

77.1

12.2 18.7

2.4

47.8

6.8

0 20 40 60 80 100

All 4-year

Public 2-year

Percent

None Certificate Associate’s Bachelor’s or transfer to 4-year
Reasons for Early Departure 

65 

Figure 7.—Among 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students and those who left without a credential within 3

Figure 7.—years, percentage who had nontraditional characteristics, by first institution type

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

7.6

4.3

1.8

3.5

2.1

44.4

59.9

26.5

32.6

34.7

20.9

10.8

19.7

12.0

14.8

18.5

4.7

10.8

0 20 40 60 80 100

Age 24 or older

Delayed postsecondary enrollment

Enrolled part time

Independent

Worked full time while enrolled

Ever married

Single parent

Any dependents

No regular high school diploma

All 4-year

Public 2-year

Percent

All beginning students

Students who left

12.4

4.4

10.3

57.6

69.4

36.8

44.8

46.9

29.5

12.3

25.2

13.7

18.2

25.4

33.9

11.8

22.9

4.2

0 20 40 60 80 100

Age 24 or older

Delayed postsecondary enrollment

Enrolled part time

Independent

Worked full time while enrolled

Ever married

Single parent

Any dependents

No regular high school diploma All 4-year

Public 2-year

Percent
Reasons for Early Departure 

66 

Table 20 shows the unadjusted and adjusted percentages of short-term enrollees with 

various characteristics who indicated that they left because of academic problems. Once other 

variables were taken into account, the model revealed that only a few variables were associated 

with claiming this reason for departure. Female students who left were less likely than their male 

counterparts to leave for academic reasons, which is consistent with their generally higher 

academic performance. Two nontraditional characteristics were also associated with a lower 

likelihood of giving this reason in the regression analysis: attendance pattern and hours worked. 

Students with mixed part-time and full-time enrollment during their first year were less likely to 

give this reason than those who attended full time. In addition, short-term enrollees who worked 

full time while enrolled were less likely than those who did not work to leave for academic 

reasons. While no difference by institutional level was detected in the multivariate model, shortterm enrollees whose initial degree objective was an associate’s degree were less likely than 

those who intended to get a bachelor’s degree or transfer to a 4-year institution from their first 

college to cite academic problems as a reason for departure. 

Many student and institutional characteristics were associated with leaving postsecondary 

education because one’s goals were accomplished—that is, because the student was done taking 

the desired classes (table 21). However, once all of these variables were considered together in a 

regression model, only two characteristics were associated with giving this reason. Consistent 

with their stated goals, students who never intended to complete a credential at their initial 

institution were more likely than those seeking a degree or certificate to indicate that they left 

because they were done taking the classes they wanted. However, as described above, this reason 

was not given by even a majority of those with no degree goals, suggesting that other reasons 

may have deterred them. Short-term enrollees with a lower GPA were less likely to say they left 

because they were done once other factors were taken into account, while no differences were 

found in the percentage giving this reason by institutional level in the regression model. 

Relatively few student characteristics were associated with leaving because of a change in 

family status (table 22). However, most of these characteristics were also associated with this 

reason when included in the multivariate analysis. Female students, those from middle or lower 

income families, and those who attended full time were more likely than male, higher income, or 

less-than-full-time students to say they left because of a change in family status. Entirely 

consistent with the reason given, those who had more dependents in 1998 than when they began 

postsecondary education were more likely than others to say they left because of a change in 

family status after the adjustment procedure. In addition, even when taking into account other 

factors, students at public 2-year institutions were less likely than those at 4-year institutions to 

give this reason for leaving college. 
Reasons for Early Departure 

67 

Table 20.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because of academic

Table 20.—reasons, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of variables in the table, by selected

Table 20.—characteristics

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 4.0 4.0 9.94 3.52 

First institution type

 Public 2-year 2.0* 3.6 -1.53 1.90 

 Public or private not-for-profit 4-year 9.2 5.1 † † 

Gender

 Male 6.1 5.9 † † 

 Female 2.1* 2.4* -3.50 1.16 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 7.1 5.2 † † 

 Mixed 0.2* 1.1* -4.09 1.73 

 Part time 2.1* 4.0 -1.18 1.50 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 7.9 7.1* 3.82 1.44 

 Worked part time 5.1* (

5

)* -5.03 6.41 

 Worked full time 1.7 3.2 † † 

Any dependents

 No dependents 5.1 3.8 † † 

 Had dependents 0.4* 4.8 1.04 3.97 

Single parent

 Not single parent 4.5 4.1 † † 

 Single parent 0.8* 3.3 -0.73 2.48 

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 4.4 4.3 † † 

 Other 0.4* 1.9 -2.34 1.92 

Initial degree objective6

 None 5.2 5.4 -0.26 1.76 

 Certificate 0.0* 1.1 -4.48 2.30 

 Associate’s 1.1* 2.5* -3.11 1.58 

 Bachelor’s or transfer to 4-year 8.0 5.6 † † 

First term enrolled

 Fall 4.7* 4.3 1.50 1.40 

 Other 1.7 2.8 † † 

See footnotes at end of table.
Reasons for Early Departure 

68 

Table 20.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because of academic

Table 20.—reasons, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of variables in the table, by selected

Table 20.—characteristics—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 1.2 2.4 † † 

 Under 2.75 5.5* 4.8 2.41 1.25 

Combined SAT scores7

 Not available 2.1* 3.8 -4.14 2.54 

 1000 or below 5.4 3.4 -4.59 2.35 

 Over 1000 12.6 8.0 † † 

Social integration

 Low 3.1* 4.4 1.46 1.48 

 High 6.9 2.9 † † 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 11.6 6.9 † † 

 With parents or other relatives 3.6* 3.7 -3.19 1.99 

 Other 1.3* 3.1 -3.74 2.18 

Institution graduation rate8

 33 percent or less 2.8 3.9 2.72 3.07 

 34–67 percent 7.1 4.7 3.51 3.10 

 More than 67 percent 3.6 1.2 † † 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 5.9 4.6 † † 

 Increased number 1.2* 2.0 -2.66 1.76 

 Decreased or same number 0.4* 3.4 -1.20 4.04 

*p < .05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Adjusted percentage calculated from regression coefficients is below zero, outside the range of possible percentages.

6

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

7

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Nine percent of

students beginning at public 4-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

8

Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by

institutions in IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Respondents could give up to three reasons. Sixty-one percent identified only one of the reasons discussed in this report,

and 24 percent did not cite any of these reasons. The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

69 

Table 21.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because they were

Table 21.—done taking the classes they wanted, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of

Table 21.—variables in the table, by selected characteristics

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 10.0 10.0 32.87 12.02 

First institution type

 Public 2-year 12.0* 9.8 -0.80 4.32 

 Public or private not-for-profit 4-year 4.7 10.6 † † 

Last year of enrollment

 1995–96 14.2 10.9 † † 

 1996–97 7.2 10.3 -0.54 3.09 

 1997–98 1.0* 6.6 -4.25 3.86 

First generation status

 First-generation college student 12.1* 11.0 2.14 2.74 

 Not first-generation 4.9 8.9 † † 

Age

 18 or younger 4.7* 11.1 0.42 6.53 

 19–23 5.3* 8.3 -2.32 5.29 

 24 or older 23.3 10.6 † † 

Delayed postsecondary enrollment after high school

 Did not delay 3.8 9.0 † † 

 Delayed 15.4* 10.9 1.90 4.33 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 5.2* 10.4 -1.32 3.82 

 Mixed 2.0* 4.8 -6.87 4.39 

 Part time 18.7 11.7 † † 

Dependency status

 Dependent 4.3 8.4 † † 

 Independent 19.6* 12.6 4.20 5.35 

Employment while enrolled

 Did not work 9.1 6.7 -4.18 3.62 

 Worked part time 5.4* 5.6 -5.31 14.59 

 Worked full time 16.1 10.9 † † 

Ever married

 Never married 5.8 9.6 † † 

 Currently or previously married 23.2* 11.0 1.37 4.67 

See footnotes at end of table.
Reasons for Early Departure 

70 

Table 21.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because they were

Table 21.—done taking the classes they wanted, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of

Table 21.—variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Primary role

 Primarily or exclusively student 7.0 10.9 † † 

 Primarily employee 15.5* 8.2 -2.72 3.41 

Initial degree objective5

 None 28.8 23.5 † † 

 Certificate 17.4 7.0* -16.55 5.09 

 Associate’s 8.2 6.3* -17.24 3.94 

 Bachelor’s or transfer to 4-year 2.3* 7.1* -16.43 4.42 

Eventual education expectations6

 Don’t know 9.5 11.0 4.31 8.06 

 Less than bachelor’s 21.6* 13.0 6.28 4.86 

 Bachelor’s 8.9 10.3 3.62 3.76 

 Advanced degree 1.6 6.7 † † 

Grade point average 1995–96

 2.75 or higher 18.9 15.2 † † 

 Under 2.75 5.8* 7.3* -7.84 2.86 

Combined SAT scores7

 Not available 15.2 10.9 † † 

 1000 or below 3.1* 9.3 -1.66 3.62 

 Over 1000 0.7* 5.4 -5.57 5.89 

Financial aid amount

 No financial aid 12.1 10.7 -0.18 3.10 

 $3,000 or less 11.4 10.9 † † 

 $3,001–$6,000 0.5* 6.4 -4.45 5.08 

 More than $6,000 1.4* 6.1 -4.78 6.95 

Financial aid package

 Aided with loans 1.8* 7.1 -3.59 4.55 

 No aid or aided without loans 12.1 10.7 † † 

Price of attendance8

$6,000 or less 13.2* 10.2 -2.28 7.15 

$6,001–$9,000 4.7 9.6 -2.89 6.85 

$9,001–$12,000 2.4 7.2 -5.29 7.25 

More than $12,000 2.3 12.5 † † 

See footnotes at end of table.
Reasons for Early Departure 

71 

Table 21.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because they were

Table 21.—done taking the classes they wanted, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of

Table 21.—variables in the table, by selected characteristics—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Social integration

 Low 12.4* 9.9 -0.31 3.50 

 High 2.5 10.2 † † 

Academic integration

 Low 14.2* 11.4 3.31 2.93 

 High 3.4 8.0 † † 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 5.8* 15.4 3.27 5.25 

 With parents or other relatives 4.7* 6.7 -5.51 3.70 

 Other 17.3 12.2 † † 

Transfer status

 Did not transfer 10.7 10.1 † † 

 Transferred by 1998 4.4* 9.3 -0.81 4.45 

Change in education expectations, 1996 to 19989

 Never expected or decreased from

 graduate degree expectations 10.9 10.1 † † 

 Always expected or increased to

 graduate degree expectations 2.0* 10.1 0.00 3.95 

 Clarified expectations 7.0 7.6 -2.44 8.40 

 Don’t know in 1998 15.1 13.0 2.91 5.44 

*p < .05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Refers to the degree the student expected to complete at the first postsecondary institution attended as of the 1995–96 base 

year interview.

6

Refers to student’s response to the question, “What is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” when asked

during the base year (1995–96) interview.

7

SAT scores are derived from agency, institution, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores, when available. Nine percent of

students beginning at public 4-year institutions were missing this information. See appendix A for details.

8

Price of attendance refers to the attendance-adjusted student budget. See appendix A for details.

9

Combines reports of the highest degree respondents expected to complete when asked in 1996 and in 1998. The category

“Clarified expectations” refers to students who said “don’t know” in 1996, but gave a determinate answer in 1998.

See the glossary for further details.

NOTE: Respondents could give up to three reasons. Sixty-one percent identified only one of the reasons discussed in this report,

and 24 percent did not cite any of these reasons. The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

72 

As shown in table 12, short-term enrollees were more likely to indicate that they left 

because they needed to work than to give any other reason considered here, and those who began 

at public 2-year institutions were more likely to give this reason than those at 4-year institutions. 

This relationship was also found in the multivariate analysis (table 23). In addition, as discussed 

Table 22.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because of a change

Table 22.—in family status, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of variables in the table,

Table 22.—by selected characteristics

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 7.6 7.6 29.10 2.95 

First institution type

 Public 2-year 5.8* 6.1* -5.76 1.75 

 Public or private not-for-profit 4-year 12.4 11.8 † † 

Gender

 Male 3.9 5.7 † † 

 Female 10.9* 9.4* 3.72 1.44 

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 11.8* 11.6* 9.38 2.24 

 Middle two quartiles 6.9* 7.0* 4.78 2.03 

 Highest quartile 2.3 2.2 † † 

Attendance intensity

 Full time 11.7 11.2 † † 

 Mixed 4.8* 2.9* -8.30 2.10 

 Part time 4.3* 5.8* -5.42 1.75 

Received financial aid

 No financial aid 5.1* 8.1 0.87 1.57 

 Received financial aid 10.1 7.2 † † 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 3.0* 2.6* -26.47 2.03 

 Increased number 28.9 29.1 † † 

 Decreased or same number 5.8* 8.0* -21.10 2.51 

*p < .05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

NOTE: Respondents could give up to three reasons. Sixty-one percent identified only one of the reasons discussed in this report,

and 24 percent did not cite any of these reasons. The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

73 

Table 23.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because they needed

Table 23.—to work, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of variables in the table, by selected

Table 23.—characteristics

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

 Total 25.6 25.4 0.71 11.97 

First institution type

 Public 2-year 29.0* 29.5* 15.13 5.69 

 Public or private not-for-profit 4-year 16.8 14.4 † † 

Gender

 Male 31.3 29.6 † † 

 Female 20.5* 21.6* -7.99 3.97 

1994 income quartile

 Lowest quartile 25.3 23.5 6.21 6.17 

 Middle two quartiles 30.3* 29.2* 11.85 5.65 

 Highest quartile 12.8 17.3 † † 

Dependency status

 Dependent 30.8 25.6 † † 

 Independent 19.0* 25.0 -0.61 6.81 

Ever married

 Never married 29.5 29.3 † † 

 Currently or previously married 13.4* 13.7* -15.53 7.62 

Any dependents

 No dependents 29.1 23.2 † † 

 Had dependents 15.4* 33.6 10.37 14.45 

Single parent

 Not single parent 27.5 26.8 † † 

 Single parent 14.7* 13.2 -13.59 9.42 

High school completion type

 Regular diploma 26.8 26.2 † † 

 Other 16.0* 18.9 -7.32 6.71 

Residence while enrolled

 School-owned housing 20.7 24.4 0.57 7.58 

 With parents or other relatives 33.1* 26.8 2.97 5.51 

 Other 19.0 23.9 † † 

See footnotes at end of table.
Reasons for Early Departure 

74 

above, male students and middle income students were more likely than female and higher 

income students, respectively, to state that they left college because they needed to work. While 

a number of nontraditional student characteristics were associated with a lower likelihood of 

leaving for this reason, only marital status was associated with this reason when taking other 

variables into consideration. 

Summary 

The institution at which students first enrolled—whether it was a public 2-year or a 4-year 

institution—was associated with several reasons students gave for their departure. Students who 

began at public 2-year institutions were more likely than those who began at public or private 

not-for-profit 4-year institutions to say they left because they needed to work or were done with 

their intended courses. Short-term enrollees from community colleges were less likely than their 

counterparts at 4-year institutions to leave college because of academic problems or a change in 

Table 23.—Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left by spring 1998 because they needed

Table 23.—to work, and adjusted percentage after controlling for covariation of variables in the table, by selected

Table 23.—characteristics—Continued

Unadjusted Adjusted Least squares Standard

percentage1 percentage2 coefficient3

error4

Institution graduation rate5

 33 percent or less 28.6* 25.2 13.47 10.39 

 34–67 percent 23.1* 27.9 16.17 10.58 

 More than 67 percent 2.9 11.8 † † 

Change in number of dependents

 Never had dependents 30.3 26.7 † † 

 Increased number 21.2 22.3 -4.45 6.09 

 Decreased or same number 15.3* 23.2 -3.56 13.64 

*p < .05.

†Not applicable for the reference group.

1

The estimates are from the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System.

2

The percentages are adjusted for differences associated with other variables in the table (see appendix B).

3

Least squares coefficient, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B).

4

Standard error of least squares coefficient, adjusted for design effect, multiplied by 100 to reflect percentage (see appendix B). 5

Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time to degree completion reported by

institutions in IPEDS. See appendix A for details.

NOTE: Respondents could give up to three reasons. Sixty-one percent identified only one of the reasons discussed in this report,

and 24 percent did not cite any of these reasons. The italicized group in each category is the reference group being compared.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).
Reasons for Early Departure 

75 

family status. Once other factors were taken into account, those who started at community 

colleges were still more likely than 4-year students to leave because they needed to work and less 

likely to leave because of a change in family status. 

In addition, among students who left without a credential, some of the reasons they gave 

were consistent with their personal and educational circumstances. Among leavers, students in 

the middle two income quartiles were more likely than those in the highest quartile to indicate 

that they left because they needed to work. Furthermore, consistent with their stated educational 

plans, those leavers with lower degree objectives at the first institution were more likely to say 

that they left because they were done taking the classes they wanted. However, even among 

those leavers who had indicated that they did not plan to obtain any degree or certificate from 

their first institution, those who left because they had accomplished their educational goals 

constituted a minority (29 percent). In other words, lack of specific degree goals alone was not 

sufficient to explain even a majority of the departures among these students. 
THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK
77 

Conclusion 

Using data from the 1996–98 Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study 

(BPS:96/98), this report examined factors associated with attrition from postsecondary education 

within 3 years of students’ first enrollment and the reasons these short-term enrollees gave for 

their departure. It also focused on how the process of departure differed for students who began 

at public 2-year institutions and those who began at public or private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions. 

Students who began at public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions were less likely 

than those who began at public 2-year institutions to leave postsecondary education. In both 

bivariate and multivariate analyses, initial degree objectives from the first institution at which the 

student enrolled were associated with departure in all three types of institutions, with lower 

objectives generally associated with a higher rate of departure. This result underscores the point 

that not all students plan to complete college degrees when they enter postsecondary education. 

Educational plans varied by institution type, with students who began at public 2-year 

institutions generally having lower educational goals—in terms of both initial objectives and 

eventual expectations—than those who began at public or private not-for-profit 4-year 

institutions. 

Lower academic performance during the first year of enrollment was associated with a 

higher rate of attrition at all three types of institutions. In addition, changes in students’ 

educational circumstances and number of dependents from their initial entry into college until 

1998 were associated with their departure. Many nontraditional student characteristics were 

associated with short-term enrollment at all three types of institutions. Many of these 

relationships were also found when considering other factors associated with attrition. 

Some characteristics, however, were associated with departure from 4-year institutions, but 

not from public 2-year institutions. A higher price of attendance was associated with a lower 

likelihood of attrition at 4-year institutions, while this relationship was not found among students 

who began at public 2-year institutions after taking other factors into account. In addition, the 

institution’s graduation rate was associated with departure at 4-year institutions, but not at public 

2-year institutions. 
Conclusion 

78 

Beginning postsecondary students who left without a credential within 3 years were 

generally more likely to say that they left because they needed to work or for other financial 

reasons than to give other reasons. Those who began at public 2-year institutions were more 

likely than those who began at 4-year institutions to say they left because they were done taking 

the classes they wanted or because they needed to work. Those who began at 4-year institutions, 

on the other hand, were more likely to say that they left because of academic problems or a 

change in family status. 

Finally, short-term enrollees with lower initial degree objectives were more likely to say 

that they left because they were done taking the classes they wanted. However, even among 

those leavers who had indicated that they did not plan to obtain any degree or certificate from 

their first institution, a minority of those who left said they did so because they had accomplished 

their educational goals. In other words, lack of degree goals alone did not explain most of these 

students’ departures. 
79 

References 

Adams, J. (1994). Survey Report, 1992–93 Non-Returning Students. Warren, MI: Macomb 

Community College, Department of Research and Evaluation. (ERIC ED 369473) 

Astin, A.W. (1993). What Matters in College? Four Critical Years Revisited. San Francisco: 

Jossey-Bass. 

Bean, J.P. (1980). Dropouts and Turnover: The Synthesis and Test of a Causal Model of Student 

Attrition. Research in Higher Education 12: 155–187. 

Bonham, L.A., and Luckie, J.I. (1993). Taking a Break in Schooling: Why Community College 

Students Stop Out. Community College Journal of Research and Practice 17: 257–270. 

Cabrera, A.F., Stampen, J.O., and Hansen, W.L. (1990). Exploring the Effects of Ability to Pay 

on Persistence in College. The Review of Higher Education 13: 303–336. 

Conklin, K.A. (1993). Leaving the Community College: Attrition, Completion, or Something 

Else? Community College Journal of Research and Practice 17: 1–11. 

Dougherty, K. (1994). The Contradictory College. Albany, NY: SUNY Press. 

Feldman, M.J. (1993). Factors Associated with One-Year Retention in a Community College. 

Research in Higher Education 34: 503–512. 

Horn, L.J. (1996). Nontraditional Undergraduates: Trends in Enrollment from 1986 to 1992 and 

Persistence and Attainment Among 1989–90 Beginning Postsecondary Students (NCES 97–

578). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, 

DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 

Horn, L.J. (1998). Stopouts or Stayouts? Undergraduates Who Leave College in Their First Year

(NCES 1999–087). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. 

Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office. 
References 

80 

Lee, M.M. (1996). Student Retention Survey: Why Students Did Not Return, Spring Semester 

1994. Valhalla, NY: Westchester Community College, Office of Institutional Research. 

(ERIC ED391565) 

Luan, J. (1996, November). Survey of Non-Continuing and Non-Returning Students at Cabrillo 

College. Paper presented at the annual meeting of the California Association for Institutional 

Research, Costa Mesa, CA. (ERIC ED405939) 

Mallette, B.I., and Cabrera, A.F. (1991). Determinants of Withdrawal Behavior: An Exploratory 

Study. Research in Higher Education 32: 179–194. 

Moore, N. (1995). Persistence and Attrition at San Juan College. Farmington NM: San Juan 

College, Office of Institutional Research, Grant Development, and Planning. (ERIC 

ED380159) 

Tinto, V. (1993). Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes and Cures of Student Attrition (2nd 

ed.). Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 
81 

Appendix A—Glossary 

This glossary describes the variables used in this report. The variables were taken directly from the BPS:96/98 Data 

Analysis System, an NCES software application that generates tables from the BPS:96/98 dataset. A description of 

the DAS software can be found in appendix B. 

In the index below, the variables are listed in the order they appear in the report. The glossary is in alphabetical 

order by variable name. 

GLOSSARY INDEX

INITIAL VARIABLES

First institution type..................................... SECTOR 

Year departed/Last year of 

enrollment............................................. PRENYRB1 

Analysis weight ...........................................B98AWT 

STUDENT BACKGROUND CHARACTERISTICS

Gender ....................................................SBGENDER 

Race/ethnicity .............................................. SBRACE 

1994 income quartile ..................................PCTALL2 

First-generation status................................. PBEDHI2 

NONTRADITIONAL STUDENT CHARACTERISTICS

Age ......................................................................AGE 

Delayed enrollment after high school .......ENDELAY 

Attendance intensity ...............................ATTNPTRN 

Dependency status ................................... SBDEP1Y1 

Employment while enrolled..................... J1HOURY1 

Ever married .......................................... SBMARRY1 

Single parent 1995–96 ..............................SBSINGY1 

Any dependents .........................................SBDPNY1 

High school completion type .................. HSDIPLOM 

Primary role .............................................SEROLEY1 

ACADEMIC CHARACTERISTICS

Eventual education expectations............. EPHDEGY1 

Initial degree objective...............................DGEXPY1 

Primary reason for enrolling ................... SBENRPUR 

First term enrolled........................................ATTEND 

Any remedial courses ..................................REMED2 

Grade-point average.............................................GPA 

Combined SAT scores ............................ TESATDER 

FINANCIAL AID CHARACTERISTICS

Received financial aid/Financial aid 

amount ..................................................AATOTLY1 

Financial aid package ................................LOANAID 

Price of attendance.................................. BUDGETAJ 

INSTITUTION-RELATED CHARACTERISTICS

Social integration .......................................... SOCINT 

Academic integration.................................ACADINT 

Residence while enrolled 1995–96 ......... HTENRLY1 

Graduation rate 2000 ...................................GRS2000 

CHANGE IN FAMILY AND EDUCATION 

CIRCUMSTANCES

Transfer status..........................................PRTRTYB1 

Change in education expectations............. EDEXPCH 

Change in number of dependents....................DEPCH 

REASONS FOR DEPARTURE

Academic problems ................................RLACADB1 

Done taking desired classes ....................RLDONEB1 

Not satisfied.............................................RLNOTSB1 

Taking time off ........................................ RLTIMEB1 

Change in family status............................ RLFAMIB1 

Conflicts at home/personal 

problems .............................................. RLHOMEB1 

Conflicts with job/military..........................RLJOBB1 

Needed to work......................................RLWORKB1 

Other financial reasons .............................RLFINAB1 
Appendix A—Glossary 

82 

DAS variable 

Received financial aid/Financial aid amount AATOTLY1 

The total amount of financial aid received during 1995–96. Includes all grant, loan, work study, and other assistance, 

including PLUS loans, veteran’s and military benefits, vocational rehabilitation, JTPA, employer aid, and private 

aid. This variable is used to distinguish aid recipients from non-recipients (Received financial aid) as well as 

amounts of financial aid received for those who did receive aid (Financial aid amount). 

Received financial aid 

 No financial aid 

 Received financial aid 

Financial aid amount 

Public 4-year Private not-for-profit 4-year Public 2-year

$3,000 or less $6,000 or less $3,000 or less 

$3,001–$6,000 $6,001–$12,000 More than $3,000 

More than $6,000 More than $12,000 

Academic integration ACADINT

This variable indexes the overall level of academic integration the respondent experienced at the NPSAS institution 

during the 1995–96 academic year. It is derived based on the average of the responses indicating how often they had 

done the following things: participated in study groups, had social contact with faculty, met with an academic 

advisor, or talked with faculty about academic matters outside of class. Non-missing values for these items were 

averaged and the average multiplied by 100. For this report, scores were divided into two groups at the mean. 

Low 

High 

Age AGE

Indicates student’s age on 12/31/95. Calculated from date of birth. 

18 or younger 

19–23 

24 or older 

First term enrolled ATTEND

Indicates the student’s attendance status during September or October 1995. This variable was used to determine 

whether students began postsecondary education in the fall term or another term. 

Fall Full-time 

 Part-time, at least half time 

 Part-time, less than half time 

 Enrolled, intensity unknown 

Other Not enrolled during the fall 
Appendix A—Glossary 

83 

DAS variable 

Attendance intensity ATTNPTRN

Indicates a student’s attendance intensity during 1995–96. Attendance intensity refers to the student’s full-/part-time 

or mixed attendance while enrolled. Students were considered to have enrolled exclusively full time if they were 

enrolled full time during all enrolled months. Students were considered to have enrolled mixed full time/part time if 

they were enrolled both full time and part time during enrolled months. Students were considered to have enrolled 

exclusively half time if they were enrolled half time during all enrolled months. Students were considered to have 

enrolled exclusively less than half time if they were enrolled for less than half time during all enrolled months. 

Full time Exclusively full-time 

Mixed Mixed full-time/part-time 

Part time Exclusively half-time 

 Exclusively less-than-half-time 

 Mixed half-time/less-than-half-time 

 Other 

Analysis weight B98AWT

Statistical analysis weight for the analysis of data available for respondents to the BPS first follow-up survey in 

1998 (BPS:96/98). This weight was used for all analyses in this report. 

Price of attendance BUDGETAJ 

Indicates attendance-adjusted student budget. Indicates total student budget (attendance adjusted) at the NPSAS 

School. BUDGETAJ estimates actual cost based on tuition paid, number of months enrolled, and attendance status 

while enrolled. Non-tuition costs are reduced for half-time (75%), unknown (50%), and less than half-time (25%) 

status, and the actual tuition is added to the estimated non-tuition costs. 

Public 4-year Private not-for-profit 4-year Public 2-year

$6,000 or less $15,000 or less $3,000 or less 

$6,001–$9,000 $15,001–$20,000 $3,001–$6,000 

$9,001–$12,000 $20,001–$25,000 More than $6,000 

More than $12,000 More than $25,000 

Change in number of dependents DEPCH

This variable indicates whether and how the number of non-spousal dependents of the respondent had changed 

between the base year interview and the spring 1998 follow-up. It is derived from base year and first follow-up 

variables based on whether they had no dependents at either time, the same number of dependents at both times, or 

an increase or decrease in the number of dependents between the two time periods. 

Never had dependents Never had dependents 

Increased number Increased from no dependents 

 Increased number of dependents 

Decreased or same number Decreased to no dependents 

 Decreased number of dependents 

 Same number of dependents 
Appendix A—Glossary 

84 

DAS variable 

Initial degree objective DGEXPY1

Highest degree planned at the first institution attended in 1995–96. Responses for any degree of BA or higher plus 

those planning to transfer to a 4-year institution were coded as bachelor’s/transfer. Those planning no degree at that 

institution or planning to transfer from one less-than-4-year institution to another were also coded as having no 

degree objective. Responses of higher degrees than were offered at the institution were assumed to be planning to 

transfer. For analysis of students at public and private not-for-profit 4-year institutions, the first three categories are 

collapsed to one category, “Less than bachelor’s.” 

None 

Certificate 

Associate’s 

Bachelor’s or transfer to 4-year 

Change in educational expectations EDEXPCH

This variable indicates what combination of education expectations the respondent gave in the base year interview 

(EPHDEGY1) and the spring 1998 follow-up (EPHDEGB1). For each year, the following responses were possible: 

Don’t know; Less than bachelor’s degree (Less than 4 years of college and no degree or certificate, Certificate, 

Associate’s degree); Bachelor’s degree (Bachelor’s degree, Completion of post-baccalaureate program); and 

Advanced degree (Master’s degree, Advanced degree—doctoral or first-professional program). All combinations of 

these responses for the 2 years are coded in this variable. 

Never or decreased from graduate degree Both less than bachelor’s 

 Less than bachelor’s/bachelor’s 

Bachelor’s/less than bachelor’s 

Both bachelor’s 

Advanced degree/less than bachelor’s 

Advanced degree/bachelor’s 

Always or increased to graduate degree Less than bachelor’s/advanced degree 

 Bachelor’s/advanced degree 

 Both advanced degree 

Clarified expectations Don’t know/less than bachelor’s 

 Don’t know/bachelor’s 

 Don’t know/advanced degree 

Don’t know in 1998 Both don’t know 

 Less than bachelor’s/don’t know 

 Bachelor’s/don’t know 

 Advanced degree/don’t know 

Delayed enrollment after high school ENDELAY

Indicates whether respondents delayed enrollment in postsecondary education after high school, as determined by 

receipt of high school diploma prior to 1995 or reaching age 20 before December 31, 1995. 

Did not delay 

Delayed 
Appendix A—Glossary 

85 

DAS variable 

Eventual education expectations EPHDEGY1

Indicates the highest degree the student ever expected to earn as of the base year interview, with the question, “What 

is the highest level of education you ever expect to complete?” 

Don’t know Don’t know 

Less than bachelor’s Less than 4-years—no degree or certificate 

 Certificate 

 Associate’s degree 

Bachelor’s Bachelor’s degree 

 Completion of post-baccalaureate program 

Advanced degree Master’s degree 

 Advanced degree—doctoral or first-professional 

Grade-point average GPA

Indicates student GPA during 1995–96. Recode of student’s GPA as reported by the institution into standardized 0–

4.0 scale. The GPA format used by each institution was identified and recoded into the 0–4.0 scale. If not available 

the student-reported categorical GPA was used. 

2.75 or higher Mostly A’s 

 A’s and B’s 

 Mostly B’s 

Under 2.75 B’s and C’s 

 Mostly C’s 

 C’s and D’s 

 Mostly D’s or below 

Graduation rate 2000 GRS2000

Cohort graduation rate of first-time, full-time students for 150 percent of expected time for completion of the highest 

degree at the institution (3 years for associate’s and 6 years for bachelor’s degrees) reported by institutions in the 

2000 IPEDS. Cut points for each type of institution were selected to produce meaningful analysis categories with 

sufficient cases for statistical testing. 

Public 4-year Private not-for-profit 4-year Public 2-year

33 percent or less 33 percent or less 16 percent or less 

34–67 percent 34–67 percent 17–33 percent 

More than 67 percent More than 67 percent More than 33 percent 
Appendix A—Glossary 

86 

DAS variable 

High school completion type HSDIPLOM

Indicates type of high school completion reported by the institution or, if not available, by the student, in response to 

the question “Did you receive a high school diploma, pass a General Educational Development (GED) test, or 

receive a high school completion certificate?” Students who attended foreign high schools were assigned to the 

category of completion certificate. 

Regular diploma Receive a high school diploma 

Other Pass a general educational degree 

 Receive a high school completion certificate 

 Did not complete high school 

Residence while enrolled 1995–96 HTENRLY1

Type of residence while enrolled during the 1995–96 academic year. Based on response to the question, “While 

enrolled during 1995–96, where did you live?” 

School-owned housing On-campus in school-owned housing 

 Off-campus in school-owned housing 

With parents or other relatives With your parents or guardian 

 With other relatives 

Other In apartment or house other than with parents 

 Some place else 

Employment while enrolled J1HOURY1

Indicates the average hours the student worked per week while enrolled during 1995–96, based on student’s report. 

The variable was imputed to zero if student held no jobs during 1995–96. Average hours greater than 60 were 

recoded to 60. 

Did not work 0 hours 

Worked part time Less than 35 hours 

Worked full time 35 hours or more 

Financial aid package LOANAID

Indicates whether a student received only loan aid including PLUS loans, a combination of loan and non-loan aid, or 

only non-loan aid such as grants or work-study. 

No aid or aided without loans 

 No aid No aid 

 Aided, no loans Aided, no loans 

Aided with loans Loans and other aid 

 Loans only 
Appendix A—Glossary 

87 

DAS variable 

First-generation status PBEDHI2

Indicates parents’ highest level of education, recoded using categories that appear on the FAFSA. 

First-generation college student Did not complete high school 

Completed high school or equivalent 

Not first-generation Some college or more 

1994 income quartile PCTALL2

Indicates income percentiles for all students. Equal to the proportion of the sample who had an income lower than 

that recorded for the student in question. Calculated separately for dependent and independent students; each 

ranking thus compares the student only to other students of the same dependency status. Uses parents’ income if 

student is dependent, student’s own income if student is independent. 

Lowest quartile Below 25 

Middle two quartiles 26–75 

Highest quartile More than 75 

Transfer status PRTRTYB1

Transfer status is determined based on this variable identifying the type of first transfer among students who 

transferred by June 1998. Immediate transfers are those occurring without a break in enrollment of more than 4 

months, and thus occur within the first enrollment spell. Delayed transfers are those which occur following a stopout 

of 5 or more months. Upward or lateral transfers are those involving a move from one institution to another with an 

equal or higher level. A downward transfer is a move from one institution to a lower level institution. 

Did not transfer Did not transfer by spring 1998 

Transferred by 1998 Immediate, downward transfer 

 Immediate, upward/lateral transfer 

 Delayed, downward transfer 

 Delayed, upward/lateral transfer 

Year departed/Last year of enrollment PRENYRB1

Variable identifies whether students had attained a degree by June 1998, and if not, their last academic year of 

enrollment in postsecondary education. The variable is used both to determine the overall percentage of those who 

left college without a credential and without returning and the academic year of their last enrollment. 

1995–96 

1996–97 

1997–98 
Appendix A—Glossary 

88 

DAS variable 

Any remedial courses REMED2

Indicates whether student reported having taken any remedial or developmental courses in language, math, reading, 

or writing in the 1995–96 academic year. Does not include courses in study skills. 

No remedial courses 

Any remedial courses 

Academic problems RLACADB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because of academic problems. Is 

based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no longer enrolled at [most recent 

institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses collected (volunteered) and coded into proper 

category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in this report. 

Done taking desired classes RLDONEB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because he or she was done taking 

desired classes. Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no longer enrolled at 

[most recent institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were collected (volunteered) and coded 

into the proper category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in this report. 

Change in family status RLFAMIB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because of a change in family 

status. Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no longer enrolled at [most 

recent institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were collected (volunteered) and coded into the 

proper category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in this report. 

Other financial reasons RLFINAB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because of other financial reasons. 

Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no longer enrolled at [most recent 

institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were collected (volunteered) and coded into the proper 

category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in this report. 

Conflicts at home/personal problems RLHOMEB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because of conflicts with demands 

at home or personal problems. Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no 

longer enrolled at [most recent institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were collected 

(volunteered) and coded into the proper category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in 

this report. 
Appendix A—Glossary 

89 

DAS variable 

Conflicts with job/military RLJOBB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because of conflicts with a job or 

military service. Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no longer enrolled at 

[most recent institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were collected (volunteered) and coded 

into the proper category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in this report. 

Not satisfied RLNOTSB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because he or she was not satisfied 

with the program, school, campus, or facility. Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that 

you’re no longer enrolled at [most recent institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were 

collected (volunteered) and coded into the proper category. The percentage of students who reported this category 

was used in this report. 

Taking time off RLTIMEB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because he or she was taking time 

off from his or her studies. Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no longer 

enrolled at [most recent institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were collected (volunteered) 

and coded into the proper category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in this report. 

Needed to work RLWORKB1

Indicates whether a student who left postsecondary education by spring 1998 left because he or she needed to work. 

Is based on student response to the question, “You told me earlier that you’re no longer enrolled at [most recent 

institution]. Why did you leave there?” Up to three responses were collected (volunteered) and coded into the proper 

category. The percentage of students who reported this category was used in this report. 

Dependency status SBDEP1Y1

This variable indicates students’ dependency status. Students were considered independent if they were 1) age 24 or 

older as of 12/31/1995 (born before January 1, 1972); 2) a veteran of the U.S. Armed Forces; 3) enrolled in a 

graduate or professional program beyond a bachelor’s degree in 1995–96; 4) married; 5) an orphan or ward of the 

court; or 6) had legal dependents, other than spouse. Where not available, data from the 1996–97 FAFSA was used. 

Dependent 

Independent 

Any dependents SBDPNY1

Whether the respondent had any dependents as of fall 1995 was determined using this variable providing the number 

of non-spouse dependents of the respondent. Based on whether dependents were reported on the FAFSA and family 

size, or the sum of dependents reported in response to the question “How many people were you supporting at that 

time (July 1,1995)?” 

No dependents 

Had dependents 
Appendix A—Glossary 

90 

DAS variable 

Primary reason for enrolling SBENRPUR

This question only applies to respondents enrolled at 2-year or less-than-2-year institutions in 1995–96. The wording 

of this question varied depending on the students’ plans regarding the receipt of a degree from the institution at 

which they were sampled. Students who indicated they did not plan to receive a degree or certificate or they planned 

to receive a certificate were asked the question “Are you enrolled for a job-related reason or some other reason?” 

However, students who indicated they planned to transfer or planned to obtain a degree from this institution were 

asked “What is your primary reason for enrolling in this school?” 

Job skills Job skills 

Degree or certificate Degree or certificate 

Transfer to 4-year Transfer to a 4-year school 

Other transfer Transfer to a 2-year school 

 Transfer but not sure where 

Personal enrichment Personal enrichment 

Gender SBGENDER

This variable indicates the student’s gender based on student- or institution-reported gender, or gender reported on 

the FAFSA. Where gender information was not available from one of these sources, it was imputed based on 

student’s first name. 

Male 

Female 

Ever married SBMARRY1

Indicates student’s marital status when applied for financial aid 1995–96. Derived using student’s reported marital 

status from the FAFSA, marital status reported by the student in response to the question “What was your marital 

status on July 1, 1995?”, or institution-reported marital status. 

Never married Single, never married 

Currently or previously married Married 

 Separated 

 Divorced 

 Widowed 

Race/ethnicity SBRACE

Indicates student’s race/ethnicity. 

White, non-Hispanic White, non-Hispanic 

Black, non-Hispanic Black, non-Hispanic 

Hispanic Hispanic 

Asian/Pacific Islander Asian/Pacific Islander 

Other Includes American Indian/Alaska Native and Other 
Appendix A—Glossary 

91 

DAS variable 

Single parent 1995–96 SBSINGY1

Indicates student was a single parent (had dependents and was not married) during 1995–96. 

Not single parent 

Single parent 

First institution type SECTOR

Indicates the level and control of the institution at which the student was sampled for the NPSAS survey. 

Constructed by combining the level of the NPSAS institution and the control of that institution. A small number of 

cases were reclassified in November 2000. Only the categories listed below were used in this report; most analyses 

in this report also exclude private not-for-profit 2-year institutions. 

Public 4-year 

Private not-for-profit 4-year 

Public 2-year 

Private not-for-profit 2-year 

Primary role SEROLEY1

For students who were working while enrolled during 1995–96, their response to the question: “While you were 

enrolled and working, would you say you were primarily a student working to meet expenses or an employee who’s 

decided to enroll in school?” Imputed to “exclusively a student” if student was not employed during 1995–96. 

Primarily or exclusively student 

 Did not work while enrolled Did not work while enrolled 

 Primarily student Student working to meet expenses 

Primarily employee Employee who has decided to enroll 

Social integration SOCINT

This variable indexes the overall level of social integration the respondent experienced at the NPSAS institution 

during the 1995–96 academic year. It is derived based on the average of the responses indicating how often they had 

done the following items: attended fine arts activities, participated in intramural or nonvarsity sports, participated in 

varsity or intercollegiate sports, participated in school clubs, or gone places with friends from school. Non-missing 

values for these items were averaged and the average multiplied by 100. For this report, scores were divided into 

two groups at the mean. 

Low 

High 
Appendix A—Glossary 

92 

DAS variable 

Combined SAT scores TESATDER

SAT combined score, derived as either the sum of SAT verbal and math scores or the ACT composite score 

converted to an estimated SAT combined score using a concordance table from G. Marco, A. Abdel-fattah, and P. 

Baron, Methods Used to Establish Score Comparability on the Enhanced ACT Assessment and the SAT (College 

Board Report No. 92-3; New York: College Entrance Examination Board, 1992). Constructed from agency-reported, 

institution-reported, or student-reported SAT or ACT scores. All SAT scores are provided in original (not recentered) scale. 

Not available 

1,000 or below 

Over 1,000 
93 

Appendix B—Technical Notes 

The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98) 

The Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study (BPS) is composed of the 

students who participated in the 1995–96 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study 

(NPSAS:96) who enrolled in postsecondary education for the first time in 1995–96. The National 

Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NPSAS) is a comprehensive nationwide study conducted by 

the U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to 

determine how students and their families pay for postsecondary education.11 It also describes 

demographic and other characteristics of students. The study is based on a nationally 

representative sample of all students in postsecondary education institutions, including 

undergraduate, graduate, and first-professional students. For NPSAS:96, information was 

obtained from more than 830 postsecondary institutions on approximately 44,500 undergraduate, 

8,700 graduate, and 2,500 first-professional students. They represented about 16.7 million 

undergraduates, 2.4 million graduate students, and 300,000 first-professional students who were 

enrolled at some time between July 1, 1995 and June 30, 1996. 

The BPS sample consists of approximately 12,000 students identified in NPSAS:96 as 

beginning postsecondary education for the first time. Unlike other NCES longitudinal surveys 

(such as High School and Beyond), which are based on age-specific cohorts, the BPS sample is 

more likely to include “nontraditional” postsecondary students, such as those who have delayed 

their education due to financial need or family responsibilities. The First Follow-up of the BPS 

cohort (BPS:96/98) was conducted in the spring and summer of 1998, approximately 3 academic 

years after they first enrolled. Approximately 10,300 of the students who first began in 1995–96 

were located and interviewed in the First Follow-up. The weighted effective response rate in the 

1998 follow-up of the NPSAS:96 for BPS-eligible respondents was 85.9 percent. The overall 

weighted response rate (including those who were nonrespondents in NPSAS:96) for the 

BPS:96/98 First Follow-up was 79.8 percent.12

 

11For more information on the NPSAS survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics,

Methodology Report for the 1995–96 National Postsecondary Student Aid Study (NCES 98–073) (Washington, DC: 1997). 

Additional information is also available at the NPSAS Web site: http://nces.ed.gov/npsas. 12For more information on the BPS:96/98 survey, consult U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education 

Statistics, Beginning Postsecondary Students Longitudinal Study First Follow-up 1996–98, Methodology Report (NCES 2000–

157) (Washington, DC: 2000). 
Appendix B—Technical Notes 

94 

The BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System includes sample weights for cross-sectional analysis 

of the students in 1995–96 (B98IAWT) and longitudinal analysis of the sample through 1998 

(B98AWT). All of the tables and estimates in this report used the longitudinal analysis weight. 

Accuracy of Estimates 

The statistics in this report are estimates derived from a sample. Two broad categories of 

error occur in such estimates: sampling and nonsampling errors. Sampling errors occur because 

observations are made only on samples of populations rather than entire populations. 

Nonsampling errors occur not only in sample surveys but also in complete censuses of entire 

populations. Nonsampling errors can be attributed to a number of sources: inability to obtain 

complete information about all sample members (e.g., some students or institutions refused to 

participate, or students participated but answered only certain items); ambiguous definitions; 

differences in interpreting questions; inability or unwillingness to give correct information; 

mistakes in recording or coding data; and other errors of collecting, processing, sampling, and 

imputing missing data. 

Data Analysis System 

The estimates presented in this report were produced using the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis 

System (DAS). The DAS software makes it possible for users to specify and generate their own 

tables from the BPS:96/98 data. With the DAS, users can replicate or expand upon the tables 

presented in this report. In addition to the table estimates, the DAS calculates proper standard 

errors13 and weighted sample sizes for these estimates. For example, table B1 contains standard 

errors that correspond to table 1 of this report, and was generated by the DAS. If the number of 

valid cases is too small to produce a reliable estimate (fewer than 30 cases), the DAS generates 

the message “low-N” instead of the estimate. 

In addition to tables, the DAS will also produce a correlation matrix of selected variables to 

be used for linear regression models. Included in the output with the correlation matrix are the 

design effects (DEFTs) for each variable in the matrix. Since statistical procedures generally 

compute regression coefficients based on simple random sample assumptions, the standard errors 

must be adjusted with the design effects to take into account the BPS:96/98 stratified sampling 

method. 

 

13The BPS:96/98 samples are not simple random samples, and therefore, simple random sample techniques for estimating 

sampling error cannot be applied to these data. The DAS takes into account the complexity of the sampling procedures and 

calculates standard errors appropriate for such samples. The method for computing sampling errors used by the DAS involves 

approximating the estimator by the linear terms of a Taylor series expansion. The procedure is typically referred to as the Taylor 

series method. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes 

95 

The DAS can be accessed electronically at http://nces.ed.gov/DAS. For more information 

about the BPS:96/98 Data Analysis System, contact: 

Aurora D’Amico 

Postsecondary Studies Division 

National Center for Education Statistics 

1990 K Street NW 

Washington, DC 20006–5652 

(202) 502-7334 

aurora.d’amico@ed.gov

Statistical Procedures 

Differences Between Means 

The descriptive comparisons were tested in this report using Student’s t statistic. 

Differences between estimates are tested against the probability of a Type I error,14 or 

significance level. The significance levels were determined by calculating the Student’s t values 

for the differences between each pair of means or proportions and comparing these with 

published tables of significance levels for two-tailed hypothesis testing. 

 

14A Type I error occurs when one concludes that a difference observed in a sample reflects a true difference in the population 

from which the sample was drawn when no such difference is present. 

Table B1.—Standard errors for table 1: Percentage of 1995–96 beginning postsecondary students who left without a

Table B1.—credential and did not return by spring 1998, by first institution type

1995–96 1996–97 1997–98 

 Total 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.6 

First institution type

 Public 4-year 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.5 

 Private not-for-profit 4-year 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.6 

 Public 2-year 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.1 

 Private not-for-profit 2-year 3.8 2.4 2.5 2.1 

NOTE: Excludes students who began at less-than-2-year institutions and private for-profit institutions.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, 1996/98 Beginning Postsecondary Students

Longitudinal Study (BPS:96/98).

Year departed

Total 
Appendix B—Technical Notes 

96 

Student’s t values may be computed to test the difference between estimates with the 

following formula: 

2

2

2

1

1 2

se se

E E

t

+

− = (1) 

where E1 and E2 are the estimates to be compared and se1 and se2 are their corresponding 

standard errors. This formula is valid only for independent estimates. When estimates are not 

independent, a covariance term must be added to the formula: 

1 2

2

2

2

1

1 2

se se 2(r)se se

E E

t

+ −

− = (2) 

where r is the correlation between the two variables.15 The denominator in this formula will be at 

its maximum when the two estimates are perfectly negatively correlated; that is, when r = –1. 

This means that a conservative dependent test may be conducted by using –1 for the correlation 

in this formula, or 

1 2

2

2

2

1 2

(se1 ) (se ) 2se se

E E

t

+ +

− = . (3) 

The estimates and standard errors are obtained from the DAS. 

There are hazards in reporting statistical tests for each comparison. First, comparisons 

based on large t statistics may appear to merit special attention. This can be misleading since the 

magnitude of the t statistic is related not only to the observed differences in means or percentages 

but also to the number of respondents in the specific categories used for comparison. Hence, a 

small difference compared across a large number of respondents would produce a large t

statistic. 

A second hazard in reporting statistical tests for each comparison occurs when making 

multiple comparisons among categories of an independent variable. For example, when making 

paired comparisons among different levels of income, the probability of a Type I error for these 

comparisons taken as a group is larger than the probability for a single comparison. When more 

than one difference between groups of related characteristics or “families” are tested for 

 

15U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, A Note from the Chief Statistician, no. 2, 1993. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes 

97 

statistical significance, one must apply a standard that assures a level of significance for all of 

those comparisons taken together. 

Comparisons were made in this report only when p < .05/k for a particular pairwise 

comparison, where that comparison was one of k tests within a family. This guarantees both that 

the individual comparison would have p < .05 and that for k comparisons within a family of 

possible comparisons, the significance level for all the comparisons will sum to p < .05.16

For example, in a comparison of the percentages of males and females leaving 

postsecondary education without a degree, only one comparison is possible (males versus 

females). In this family, k=1, and the comparison can be evaluated without adjusting the 

significance level. When respondents are divided into five racial/ethnic groups and all possible 

comparisons are made, then k=10, and the significance level of each test must be p < .05/10, or p 

< .005. The formula for calculating family size (k) is as follows: 

2

( −1) = j j k (4) 

where j is the number of categories for the variable being tested. In the case of race/ethnicity, 

there are five racial/ethnic groups (American Indian/Alaska Native; Asian/Pacific Islander; 

Black, non-Hispanic; Hispanic; White, non-Hispanic), so substituting 5 for j in equation 4, 

10

2

5(5 1) = − k =

Linear Trends 

While many descriptive comparisons in this report were tested using Student’s t statistic, 

some comparisons among categories of an ordered variable with three or more levels involved a 

test for a linear trend across all categories, rather than a series of tests between pairs of 

categories. In this report, when differences among percentages were examined relative to a 

variable with ordered categories, Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to test for a linear 

relationship between the two variables. To do this, ANOVA models included orthogonal linear 

contrasts corresponding to successive levels of the independent variable. The squares of the 

Taylorized standard errors (that is, standard errors that were calculated by the Taylor series 

method), the variance between the means, and the unweighted sample sizes were used to 

 

16The standard that p ≤ .05/k for each comparison is more stringent than the criterion that the significance level of the 

comparisons should sum to p ≤ .05. For tables showing the t statistic required to ensure that p ≤ .05/k for a particular family size 

and degrees of freedom, see Olive Jean Dunn, “Multiple Comparisons Among Means,” Journal of the American Statistical 

Association 56 (1961): 52–64. 
Appendix B—Technical Notes 

98 

partition total sum of squares into within- and between-group sums of squares. These were used 

to create mean squares for the within- and between-group variance components and their 

corresponding F statistics, which were then compared with published values of F for a 

significance level of .05.17 Significant values of both the overall F and the F associated with the 

linear contrast term were required as evidence of a linear relationship between the two variables. 

Means and Taylorized standard errors were calculated by the DAS. Unweighted sample sizes are 

not available from the DAS and were provided by NCES. 

Adjustment of Means to Control for Background Variation 

Many of the independent variables included in the analyses in this report are related, and to 

some extent the pattern of differences found in the descriptive analyses reflect this covariation. 

For example, when examining the propensity to leave postsecondary education without a 

credential by institution type, it is possible that some of the observed relationship is due to 

differences in other factors related to institution type, such as nontraditional student 

characteristics, grade point average, and so on. However, if nested tables were used to isolate the 

influence of these other factors, cell sizes would become too small to identify the significant 

differences in patterns. When the sample size becomes too small to support controls for another 

level of variation, other methods must be used to take such variation into account. The method 

used in this report estimates adjusted means with regression models, an approach sometimes 

referred to as communality analysis. 

For the multivariate analyses reported here, multiple linear regression was used to obtain 

means that were adjusted for covariation among a list of control variables.18 Each independent 

variable is divided into several discrete categories. To find an estimated mean value on the 

dependent variable for each category of an independent variable, while adjusting for its 

covariation with other independent variables in the equation, substitute the following in the 

equation: (1) a one in the category’s term in the equation, (2) zeroes for the other categories of 

this variable, and (3) the mean proportions for all other independent variables. This procedure 

holds the impact of all remaining independent variables constant, and differences between 

adjusted means of categories of an independent variable represent hypothetical groups that are 

balanced or proportionately equal on all other characteristics included in the model as 

independent variables. 

 

17More information about ANOVA and significance testing using the F statistic can be found in any standard textbook on 

statistical methods in the social and behavioral sciences. 

18For more information about least squares regression, see Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Applied Regression: An Introduction, Vol. 22 

(Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1980); and William D. Berry and Stanley Feldman, Multiple Regression in Practice, 

Vol. 50 (Beverly Hills, CA: Sage Publications, Inc., 1987). 
Appendix B—Technical Notes 

99 

For example, consider a hypothetical case in which two variables, age and gender, are used 

to describe an outcome, Y (such as early departure). The variables age and gender are recoded 

into a dummy variable representing age, A, and a dummy variable representing gender, G: 

Age A

 Less than 20 years old 0 

 20 years or older 1 

and 

Gender G

 Female 1 

 Male 0 

The following regression equation is then estimated using the correlation matrix output from the 

DAS as input data for standard regression procedures: 

Yˆ = a + b1A + b2G (5) 

To estimate the adjusted mean for any subgroup evaluated at the mean of all other 

variables, one substitutes the appropriate values for that subgroup’s dummy variables (1 or 0) 

and the mean for the dummy variable(s) representing all other subgroups. For example, suppose 

Y represents early departure from postsecondary education, which is being described by age (A) 

and gender (G), coded as shown above. Suppose the unadjusted mean values of these two 

variables are as follows: 

Variable Mean

A 0.355 

G 0.521 

Next, suppose the regression equation results are as follows: 

ˆ

Y = 0.15 + 0.17A + 0.01G (6) 

To estimate the adjusted value for older students, one substitutes the appropriate parameter 

estimates and variable values into equation 6. 

Variable Parameter Value

a 0.15 — 

A 0.17 1.000 

G 0.01 0.521 
Appendix B—Technical Notes 

100 

This results in the following equation: 

ˆ

Y = 0.15 +(0.17)(1) + (0.01)(0.521) = 0.325

In this case, the adjusted mean for older students is 0.325 and represents the expected 

outcome for older students who resemble the average student across the other variables (in this 

example, gender). In other words, the adjusted percentage of older students who left 

postsecondary education after controlling for gender is 32.5 percent (0.325 x 100 for conversion 

to a percentage). 

It is relatively straightforward to produce a multivariate model using the DAS, since one of 

the DAS output options is a correlation matrix, computed using pairwise missing values. In 

regression analysis, there are several common approaches to the problem of missing data. The 

two simplest are pairwise deletion of missing data and listwise deletion of missing data. In 

pairwise deletion, each correlation is calculated using all of the cases for the two relevant 

variables. For example, in a regression analysis that uses variables X1, X2, and X3, the 

regression is based on the correlation matrix of the variables X1, X2, and X3. In pairwise 

deletion, the correlation between X1 and X2 is based on the nonmissing cases for X1 and X2. 

Cases missing on either X1 or X2 would be excluded from the calculation of the correlation. In 

listwise deletion, the correlation between X1 and X2 would be based on the nonmissing values 

for X1, X2, and X3. That is, all of the cases with missing data on any of the three variables 

would be excluded from the analysis. 

The correlation matrix can be used by most statistical software packages as the input data 

for least squares regression. That is the approach used for this report, with an additional 

adjustment to incorporate the complex sample design into the statistical significance tests of the 

parameter estimates (described below).19 

Most statistical software packages assume simple random sampling when computing 

standard errors of parameter estimates. Because of the complex sampling design used for the 

BPS:96/98 survey, this assumption is incorrect. A better approximation of their standard errors is 

to multiply each standard error by the design effect associated with the dependent variable 

(DEFT),20 where the DEFT is the ratio of the true standard error to the standard error computed 

under the assumption of simple random sampling. It is calculated by the DAS and produced with 

the correlation matrix output. 

 

19Although the DAS simplifies the process of making regression models, it also limits the range of models. Analysts who wish to 

estimate other types of models, such as logit models, can apply for a restricted data license from NCES. 

20The adjustment procedure and its limitations are described in C.J. Skinner, D. Holt, and T.M.F. Smith, eds., Analysis of 

Complex Surveys (New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1989).