# Air 

# Resources Board Mary 0.Nichols, 

### Chairman Lin& S. Adms f 001 I Street = P.Q. Box 2815 Amdd Schmnegwr

Secmt~iry &r Sacramento,California 85812 * www.ar4.ca.gav Governor Envimram%nfat Pmtmtim



### March 

### 26,2008

Mr. Wayne Nastri RegionaDAdministrator U.S. 

### EnvironmenQl Prowon Agency Rqion9 75 

### Hawthorne Street 

### San Francism, California 

### 941 05
Bear Mr. Nastri:
The Air Resources Board 

### (ARB or Board) 

### is scheduled to consider approval 

### af revised transpaflation cctnfomidW budgetsfor 

### the PM2,5 and &hour ozone standardsfor thr; South 

### Coast nonattainmntarea 

### at itsApril 24,2088 meeting. 

### Thew transportatian conformity budgets

### will rwlacethe budgets submitfed

### as revisions 

### tothe 

### State lmplemontation Plan 

### (SIP) on November 28,2007. To ensure that 

### the transpo~ation planning prams$ 

### can continue without disruption, 

### we are requesting hatthe 

### U.S. Enviranmental PratectionAgency (U.S. 

### EPAf begin parailel processing of these budgets priorto ARB'SApril action.
Pubfic notices

### for the Board's wnsideration 

### af these 

### revisionswere published 

### in Icxal n~wspapem 

### inthe 

### areas affected 

### on 

### March 

### 20,2008. The 

### ppro&la$ed wnfomi& budgets and an explanation of the proposed revisian

### vvere pubirshd an 

### ourwebsite, at



### ,

### an March 25,2008, 

### We 

### have discussed the proposed rovkionswith the 

### U.S.EPA, Rwion9,

### Air Division staff. 

### Vtle will infam 

### your staff of 

### any comments sent to 

### ARB 

### mthis proposat in a timady mannor, andwill notify 

### U.S. EPA if

### there 

### are any changes 

### tothe proposed budgets 

### abrpasting 

### tothe 

## web. We intend

### ta 

### submit the 

### approved 

### confomity budgets promptiy

### after the Board takss action.

Y%& enemyck~I98np facingt=a&mia is mal. Emy CebMf~) me&$fcr talreirnmwfiah fo&we en.ergyconsum#ion. Fore gfisf d@mpk waysyauGan Wuce &maod a& c& yoarrm#qy me,sea ~LK wb@e: 

### CaHfornia

### E~wiranmsMl PratedionAgency
PnhW m Re@&xi PillparNOTICE OF PUBLIC HEARING TO CONSIDER APPROVAL OF MODIFIED TRANSPORTATION CONFORMITY BUDGETS CONTAINED IN THE 2007 AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT PLAN FOR ATTAINING THE FEDERAL 8-HOUR OZONE AND PM2.5 STANDARDS IN 'THE SOUTH COAST AIR BASIN AND THE COACHELLA VALLEY
The California Air Resources Board (ARB or Board)will conduct a public hearingto consider approval of modificationsto the transportation conformity budgets contained in the 2007 Air Quality Management Plan for attaining the federal 8-hour ozone and PM2.5 ambient air quality standards in the South Coast Air Basin, and the Federal 8-hour Ozone standard in the CoachellaValley. The planswere approved by the Board on September 27, 2007; the conformity budgets were approved by the Board on November 15, 2007. If adopted,ARB will submitthese modified elements to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for approval as a revision to the California State Implementation Plan.

DATE OF HEARING: This item will be considered by the Board at a one-day hearing which will commence at 9:00 a.m. on April 24, 2008. Please consult the agenda for the meeting, which will be available at http://www.arb.ca.nov at least 10 days before April 24, 2008, to see the order in which items will be considered.
LOCATION: Caltrans Building, 111 Grand Avenue, Oakland, California 9461 2.
Instructions on how to provide written and oral comments are included in the more detailed meeting notice available on ARB's website at htt~://www.arb.ca.qov/planninq/sip/sip.htm.The modified transportation conformity budgets and other supportingdocuments will also be posted on this website. Paper copies of these items may be obtained from ARB's Public Information Office at (91 6) 322-2990. Further inquiries regarding these items should be directed to Mr. Dennis Wade, Air Pollution Specialist, at (916) 327-2963.
For individuals with sensory disabilities, this document is available in Braille, large print, audiocassette or computer disk. Please contactARB's Disability Coordinator at (91 6) 323-491 6 by voice or through the California Relay Services at 711,to place your requestfor disability services. If you are a person with limited English and would like to request interpreter services, please contact ARB's Bilingual Manager at (916) 323-7053.Proposed Revisions Transportation Conformity Budgetsfor South CoastAir Basin

On November 15, 2007, the Air Resources Board (ARB or Board) adopted conformity budgetsfor the South Coast Air Basin. The conformity budgets the Board approved are consistent with plans for attaining the federal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and &hour ozone standards in the South CoastAir Basin that the Board had approved on September27,2007. However, staff at the U.S. Environmental ProtectionAgency (U.S. EPA) has expressed concerns about these budgets, stemming from U.S. EPA concerns about the State Strategy used in the attainment demonstration plans. Although ARB staff and staff of the South Coast Air Quality Management District (AQMD) do not believe that U.S. EPA's concerns are properly part of conformity budget review, ARB and AQMD staffs haveworked with staff of the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) and U.S. EPA staff to identify budgetsthat reflect California's commitment to meeting the air quality standards, and address U.S. EPA concerns.
Based on this effort, ARB staff is now recommending the adoption of two sets of conformity budgetsfor the South Coast Air Basin. The first set reflectsthe 2007 State lrr~plementation Plan (SIP) submittal for the South Coast Air Basin, includingthe locally adopted 2007 Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) and the 2007 State Strategy adopted by ARB. The second set of budgets reflects control measures adopted as of October, 2006 -the rules that formed the baseline emission inventory used in the development of the 2007 SIP. Both the SIP and baseline-basedbudgets provides sufficient reductionsto meetthe CleanAir Act's reasonable further progress test.
Staff recommends that ARB direct staff to forward the two sets of budgets to U.S. EPA with the request that both sets of budgets be considered simultaneously. Further, staff recommends that the Board request that EPA approve the all budgets based on the 2007 SIP, and that U.S. EPA should approve all the baseline budgets only if it cannot approve or find adequate in their entirety the budgets based on the 2007 SIP. The baseline budgetsare less protective and constraining than SIP-based budgets since they do not reflect new measures committed to in the 2007 SIP. Therefore, the baseline budgetswould be forwarded to U.S. EPA with a commitment that if U.S. EPA selects this approach, then staff of the AQMD, SCAG, ARB, U.S. EPA and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) would work together to resolve issues affecting budget adequacy, and submit updated transportation conformity budgetswithin the next 12 months to reflect such resolution. Finally, staffs proposal does maketwo revisionsto the 2007 SIP budgets approved in November 2007. The first revision would restore the budgetsproposed for 2008 and 2009 to the baseline levels; this was done at the request of U.S. EPA. The second is minor, and recalibrates the 2007 SIP budgets using the EMFAC2007 motor vehicle emissions model. EMFAC2007 is the basis for motor vehicle emission inventories used in the attainment demonstration and reasonable further progress plans, and will be used to compare the impacts of proposed transportation projects against the conformity budgets.
The Need for the Dual PathApproach
U.S. EPA's concerns and hesitancyto act on the already submitted budgets create a conformity timing problem. SCAG must to adopt its new Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) in May, 2008 to avoid a lapse in conformity. The adopted RTP must include a demonstration that the plan conforms to the SIP. If approved by the Board,the dual path approach allows SCAG staff to do conformity analyses comparing the impacts of the proposed RTP to both the SIP-based budgets and the baseline budgets, which will then allow SCAG to adopt the RTP. Finally, once U.S. EPA acts on one of the sets of budgets, that set will become the conformity budgets and the need to carry two sets of budgets will stop. Proposed Budgets
SIP-Based Budsets
The preferred budgets reflect emission reduction commitments made inthe ARB's adopted 2007 State Strategy for attaining the national PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone standards, and local controls identified in the South Coast's 2007 Air Quality Management Plan. The SIP-based budgets differ from the budgets ARB adopted in November, 2007, as described below.

1. The budgets for 2008 (PM2.5) and 2009 (ozone) reflect the baseline program: they do not include any reductions from new measures adopted as part of the 2007 SIP. 2. The budgets have been recalibrated usingARB's EMFAC2007 motor vehicle emissions model, which has been approved for the SIP and which is the tool that will be used to compare the impacts of new projectsto the conformity budgets. The budgets approved in November were calculated using the South Coast's Controlled Emission Projection Algorithm (CEPA) program. SIP-based transportation conformity budgets, shown in Attachment 1, are provided for the South CoastAir Basinfor the following years:

o Annual PM2.5 Standard: 2009,2012, 2014,2023, and 2030

o 8-Hour Ozone Standard: 2008, 2011, 2014, 2017, 2020, and 2023

### Baseline Buduets
The proposed baseline budgets reflect rules that were adopted as of October, 2006 

### -the baseline program priorto the development of the 2007 SIP. Because these budgetswould not reflectthe PM2.5 or 8-hour ozone attainment demonstrations, these budgets would be forwarded to U.S. EPA with a commitmentthat AQMD, SCAG, ARB, EPA, and FHWAwill work together to resolve AQMP issues affecting budget adequacy, and submit an updated transportation conformity budgets within the next 12 months to reflect such resolution. These budgets were also calculated using the EMFAC2007 motor vehicle emissions model. Baseline transportation conformity budgets, shown in Attachment 2, are provided for the South CoastAir Basin for all milestoneyears up to the attainment year as follows:

o 

### Annual PM2.5 standard: 2009 and 2012.
o 

### 8-hour Ozone standard: 2008,2011,2014,2017, and 2020. Transportation conformity budgets identifiedfor 2012 and 2020 will be used as the PM 2.5 and ozone transportation conformity budgetsfor PM2.5 and ozone, respectively,for all subsequent milestone years. Under U.S. EPA's conformity regulations, the agency has the option of approving only some of the budgets submitted. Should U.S. EPA approve conformity budgetsfor select years, e.g. for 2008 and 2009 only, emission budgets for all future milestone years will remain the same as the last rr~ilestone year approved.
CoachellaValley


### Based on U.S. EPA's anticipated approval of the 2012 CoachellaValley conformity budgets in the Early Progress Plan approved ARB approved on February 28, 2008, no further action is needed on the Coachella Valley budgets.
Staff Recommendation


### ARB staff recommends that the Board approve the dual path approach at its April 24, 2008 hearing, and direct staff to forward the revised budgetsto U.S. EPA with a requestthat 1) U.S. EPA give primary consideration to the SIPbased budgets, and 2) U.S. EPA approve the baseline budgets only if U.S. EPA staff determines that it would recommend disapprovalof the SIP-based budgets in their entirety.

Revised on March 28, 2008 to correct typographical errors.

### Attachment 

### 1

South Coast Air Basin Transportation Conformity Emission Budgets: PM2.5 SIP Based (Annual Average

## - TonsPer Day)
2009 2012 2014 2023 2030 

### ROG BaselineInventory 196.2 162.6 146.1 101.9 85.4 

### State Strategy Reductions NIA -2331) -24.0 -12.1 -9.2 

### Adjustments to Baseline* -0.2 -0.5 -0.7 -1.4 -2.1



### Conformity Budget*** 196 

# - 139 122 89 75

2009 2012 2014 2023 2030 NOx BaselineInventory 427.1 350.8 305.7 174.7 141.8 

### State Strategy Reductions NIA -60.9(2) -91.9 -33.7 -9.4 

# 1 Conformity Budget** 413 276 201 131 121

2009 2012 2014 2023 2030 PM2.5 BaselineInventory 17.8 17.5 17.2 16.4 17.0 

### Re-entrainedRoad Dust (paved) 18.6 18.8 19.0 20.8 21.4 

### Re-entrained Road Dust (unpaved) 1.0 1.O 1 .O 1 .O 1 .O 

### Road Construction Dust 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 

### State Strategy Reductions NIA -0.6 -4.6 -1.6 -0.4 

### Adjustmentsto Baseline* -0.2 -0.2 -0.28 -0.4 -0.5 

### Adiusted Inventory 37.4 36.7 32.5 36.4 38.7 

### Conformity Budget** 38 37 33 37 39


## * Reductions from rules adopted prior to December, 

### 2006 that are not reflected in 

### EMFAC2007. 

## ** Rounded up to the nearest ton. 

### (I) Originally noticed as 

### -24.6 tons ROG reduction; ROG conformity budget originally noticed as 

### 138tons 

### (2) Originally noticed as 

### -61.6tons NOx reduction

### Attachment 

### 1 (cont.'d)

South Coast Air basin Transportation Conformity Emission Budgets: 

### 8 Hour Ozone SIPBased (Summer Planning 

### - Tons Per Day)

2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023* 

### ROG Baseline Inventory 2 14.2 176.0 150.1 131.1 117.0 106.1 

### State Strategy Reductions N/A -14.0(1) -24.6 -20.2 -1 5.6 

## - 12.4 

### Adjustments to Baseline** -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2 -1.5



### 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023* 

### NOx Baseline Inventory 441.3 367.7 299.9 243.5 200.2 171.8 

### State Strategy Reductions N/A -33.6(2) -9 1.4 -65.3 -45.7 -33.5 

### Adjustments to Baseline** -14.7 -14.3 -13.4 -12.0 -10.4 -10.5



### Conformity 

### Budget 

## *** 427 320 196 167 145 128



## * 2023 budget is applicable to all future years beyond 2023. 

## ** Reductions from rules adopted prior to December, 2006 that are not reflected in EMFAC2007. 

## ***Rounded up to the nearest ton. (1) Originally noticed as -14.9tons ROG reduction; ROG conformity budget originally noticed as 161 tons (2) Originally noticed as -34.1 tons NOx reduction

### Attachment 

### 2

South Coast Air Basin Transportation Conformity Emission Budgets: 

### PM2.5 Baseline Based (AnnualAverage 

### - Tons Per Day)
2009 2012 

### ROG Baseline Inventory 196.2 162.6 State Strategy Reductions NIA NIA Adjustments to Baseline* -0.2 -0.5 

### Conformity Budget** 196 163

2009 2012 

### NOx Baseline Inventory 427.1 350.8 State StrategyReductions NIA NIA Adjustments to Baseline* -14.6 

## - 14.0



### Conformity Budget 

## ** 413 337

2009 2012 PM2.5 

### BaselineInventory 17.8 17.5 Re-entrained Road Dust (paved) 1 8.6 18.8 Re-entrained Road Dust (unpaved) 1.0 1 .O 

### Road Construction Dust 0.2 0.2 State Strategy Reductions NIA NIA Adjustments to Baseline* -0.2 -0.2 

# 0 ConformityBudget 

## ** 38 38 

## * Reductions from rules adopted prior to December, 2006 that are not reflected in EMFAC2007. 

## ** Rounded up to the nearest ton.

### Attachment

### 2 (cont.'d)

South Coast Air basin Transportation ConformityEmission Budgets: 8 

### Hour Ozone BaselineBased (Summer Planning 

### - Tons Per Day)*

2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 ROG 

### Baseline Inventory 214.2 176.0 150.1 131.1 117.0 

### State StrategyReductions NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA Adjustments to Baseline** -0.1 -0.4 -0.7 -1.0 -1.2

2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 

### NOx 

### Baseline Inventory 441.3 367.7 299.9 243.5 200.2 

### State StrategyReductions NIA NIA NIA NIA NIA Adjustments to Baseline** -14.7 -14.3 -13.4 -12.0 -10.4



### Conformity

### Budget 

## *** 427 354 287 232 190



## * No reductionsassumed for California's 2007 

### SIPon-road measures. 

## ** Reductions from rules adopted prior to December, 2006 that are not reflected in EMFAC2007. 

## *** Rounded up to the nearest ton.