1 Attachment 

Greg, 

Here’s the detailed spreadsheet and revised summary table. I think it is clear, but let us know if you have any 

questions.

Regards, 

Juanita

JUANITA M. HAYDEL| Senior Vice President | 703.934.3373 (o) | jhaydel@icfi.com | icfi.com

ICF INTERNATIONAL | 9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, Virginia 22031 | 703.934.3968 (f)

Connect with us on social media.

From: Gregory Nudd [mailto:Nudd.Gregory@epamail.epa.gov] 

Sent: Tuesday, April 03, 2012 7:29 PM 

To: Haydel, Juanita 

Cc: Geschiere, Aaron; Lee, Mark; Arunachalam, Sarav; Shankar, Uma 

RE: Point Source Inventory, Hawaii 2018 

Haydel, Juanita 

to: 

Gregory Nudd 

04/04/2012 01:25 PM 

Cc: 

"Geschiere, Aaron", "Lee, Mark", "Arunachalam, Sarav", "Shankar, Uma" 

Hide Details 

From: "Haydel, Juanita" <JHaydel@icfi.com>

To: Gregory Nudd/R9/USEPA/US@EPA 

Cc: "Geschiere, Aaron" <AGeschiere@icfi.com>, "Lee, Mark" <MLee@icfi.com>, 

"Arunachalam, Sarav" <sarav@email.unc.edu>, "Shankar, Uma" <ushankar@unc.edu>

History: This message has been replied to and forwarded. 

Hawaii Emissions Values_Revised_040412_FTC.xlsx

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Subject: Re: Point Source Inventory, Hawaii 2018

 

Thanks for the confirmation, Juanita. No need for the sensitivity analysis. I look forward to seeing the detailed 

tables. 

Greg 

From: "Haydel, Juanita" <JHaydel@icfi.com> 

To: Gregory Nudd/R9/USEPA/US@EPA 

Cc: "Shankar, Uma" <ushankar@unc.edu>, "Lee, Mark" <MLee@icfi.com>, "Arunachalam, Sarav" <sarav@email.unc.edu>, "Geschiere, Aaron" 

<AGeschiere@icfi.com> 

Date: 04/03/2012 04:22 PM 

Subject: Point Source Inventory, Hawaii 2018 

Gregg, 

 

Yes, we can send you the unit specific information and that’s how we have it set up – you’ll be able to see the change in 

GWh (and emissions) by plant. We did do the analysis by island recognizing they are isolated (and we ignored in effect the 

potential for this underground cable to tie some of them). And yes, it’s a couple or three oil plants that are not operated, 

and others have reduced output. I think one of these is quite large – the Waiua plant if I’m remembering. Now our 

algorithm is pretty simple, is not cost based, and does not account for reliability issues or load shape, so in fact under these 

conditions these plants could stay online for reliability purposes and generate some as load conditions require. But it is the 

case that if you look at what is required by the RPS and EE goals, you will get pretty substantial reductions in fossil-based 

emissions. 

 

We did assume a straight line path to the EE and RPS targets and did assume they would be met. The RPS does have interim 

milestones. I think for 2020 it’s 25% - I’ll have to double check that – it may be in the memo. I have not studied the law so 

I’m not sure how much meaning the interim targets are and what the penalty is for not meeting that, so yes, it could be 

that they could delay and ramp up near the end. Straight-line is the simplest, most transparent thing to assume. Some of 

the projects in there are speculative and not without controversy, so there definitely is not a firm picture yet as to how they 

will meet the targets. Note we also assumed each island had to meet the RPS although I believe they would have more 

flexibility that that –i.e., operating companies would need to meet the RPS. 

 

Note that given the generation-based approach we used, we can examine the sensitivity of the results to that straight-line 

assumption (and the EE target) without a huge effort if you’d like to do that. 

 

We did tweak a couple of numbers in this yesterday and I haven’t been able to look that over yet. Let me do that and will 

send you the detail and revised tables—that may be tomorrow your mid day or so if that is okay. The numbers haven’t 

changed substantially. 

 

Regards, 

Juanita 

 

 

JUANITA M. HAYDEL| Senior Vice President | 703.934.3373 (o) | jhaydel@icfi.com | icfi.com 

ICF INTERNATIONAL | 9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, Virginia 22031 | 703.934.3968 (f) 

Connect with us on social media.

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From: Gregory Nudd [mailto:Nudd.Gregory@epamail.epa.gov]

Sent: Tuesday, April 03, 2012 2:48 PM

To: Haydel, Juanita

Cc: Geschiere, Aaron; Lee, Mark; Arunachalam, Sarav; Shankar, Uma

Subject: Re: Point Source Inventory, Hawaii 2018 

 

Juanita, 

I was pretty surprised by the sharp reductions in SO2 emissions. I'd like to have some more details for Maui and 

Hawaii specifically. It looks like you are projecting significant capacity factor reductions in the existing oil-fired 

power plants. 

But first, am I correct in my understanding that the conservation and RPS targets to be met by 2030 and that your 

2108 projections assume that they will be met in a more or less linear fashion? That is, you are assuming that a 

proportional amount of conservation measures and renewables generation will be in place by 2018. Whereas, 

there is nothing in the statute that would prevent the utilities from back-loading most or all of the conservation 

measures and renewable generation into the last 5 years or so of the period. I'm not saying that your assumption 

is unreasonable, given the time you had to work on this, I'd just like to verify my understanding of the assumption.

It would help me understanding things better if you could provide the following details for Maui and the Big Island. 

Since the grids are isolated, it makes sense to look at things on an island-specific basis: 

Base Year electric generation 

2018 projected total electric generation

Where the generation was coming from in the base year (X-kWh from this plant, Y-kWh from that plant)

Where the generation is projected to come from in 2018 (projected generation and emissions by facility). 

Thanks much! Feel free to call if you'd like some clarification. 

Greg Nudd

Environmental Engineer

US EPA Region 9

Air Planning Office

415-947-4107 

From: "Haydel, Juanita" <JHaydel@icfi.com>

To: Gregory Nudd/R9/USEPA/US@EPA

Cc: "Shankar, Uma" <ushankar@unc.edu>, "Arunachalam, Sarav" <sarav@email.unc.edu>, "Lee, Mark" <MLee@icfi.com>, "Geschiere, Aaron" 

<AGeschiere@icfi.com>

Date: 03/31/2012 08:51 PM

Subject: Point Source Inventory, Hawaii 2018 

 

Greg, 

Please find attached the EUG/Point source inventory for Hawaii for 2018. The attached memo describes the 

approach we used to develop the estimates. Please let me know if you have any questions. 

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Regards, 

Juanita

Work Assignment: 5-12, Contract No: EP-D-07-102, Task No: 16.4

JUANITA M. HAYDEL| Senior Vice President | 703.934.3373 (o) | jhaydel@icfi.com | icfi.com

ICF INTERNATIONAL | 9300 Lee Highway, Fairfax, Virginia 22031 | 703.934.3968 (f)

Connect with us on social media.

 

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