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Long-Billed Curlew (Numenius americanus)

Rangewide Survey and Monitoring Guidelines

Stephanie L. Jones 

Division of Nongame Migratory Birds, USFWS, Region 6, 

PO Box 25486, Denver, CO 80225 

303-236-4409, E-mail: stephanie_jones@fws.gov 

Dr. Thomas R. Stanley 

Research Wildlife Biologist, USGS, Fort Collins Science Center 

2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg. C 

Fort Collins, CO 80526 

970-226-9360; E-mail: tom_stanley@usgs.gov 

Dr. Susan K. Skagen 

Research Wildlife Biologist, USGS, Fort Collins Science Center 

2150 Centre Avenue, Bldg. C 

Fort Collins, CO 80526 

970-226-9461, E-mail: susan_skagen@usgs.gov 

Roland L. Redmond 

Montana Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, University of Montana 

Missoula, MT 59812 

Photo by Bob Gress 
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Focal Taxon 

Long-billed Curlew 

(Numenius americanus) 

Breeding, migration and wintering 

ranges 

Breeding: Long-billed Curlews 

(LBCUs) are found in low densities 

in the Great Basin, Columbia River 

Basin, and the shortgrass prairie 

region of the Great Plains. 

Migration: Pacific coast and central 

U.S. 

Wintering: California coast south of Humboldt Bay, southeast Atlantic coast from South 

Carolina to central Florida, occasionally North Carolina, northern and central Mexico, Baja 

California, and the Gulf of Mexico. 

Background 

LBCUs are a species of special concern throughout much of their breeding range in 

North America, with both the U.S. and Canadian Shorebird Plans listing them as “Highly 

Imperiled” (Brown et al. 2001). LBCUs are also listed in the U.S. as a Bird of Conservation 

Concern, at the National level, within FWS Regions 1, 2, 4 and 6, and for many Bird 

Conservation Regions (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2002). This level of concern is due to 

apparent population declines, particularly in the shortgrass and mixed-grass prairie of the 

western Great Plains (Brown et al. 2001). Threats include habitat loss and fragmentation due to 
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agricultural conversion (cropland and tame pasture), encroachment of woody vegetation, and 

urban development. For details on LBCU ecology, management, and conservation, refer to 

Dugger and Dugger (2002). 

 Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for LBCUs presently includes 227 survey routes 

rangewide, with 187 of those routes in the United States. BBS trends (1996-2002) are negative 

throughout much of its range, although trends are statistically significant only in FWS Region 6 

(-0.2, P = 0.03) and FWS Region 1 (4.4, P = 0.01). 

 In general, species are considered adequately monitored by the BBS if the standard error 

(SE) of the estimated rangewide trend is < 0.90 and if there is no reason to believe that bias (e.g., 

roadside, detectability, & survey timing) is especially large (Bart and Francis In Prep.). Using 

BBS data, LBCUs have a SE of 1.10 (Bart and Frances In Prep.), and therefore the BBS does not 

adequately monitor LBCU trends. An increase in the number of BBS routes with LBCU could 

potentially lower the SE below the 0.90 threshold. However, since BBS routes are surveyed in 

June when LBCUs are largely inconspicuous (Gratto-Trevor, pers. comm.), this results in bias in 

BBS for LBCUs that an increase in the numbers of routes would not decrease. We believe this 

bias is substantial and that the BBS does not adequately reflect LBCUs trends. Our goal here is 

to design a monitoring scheme that provides estimates of population size and the data necessary 

to design a program to monitor trends in abundance rangewide. 

Objectives 

Objective 1 - Determine present LBCU distribution and population size rangewide during a twoyear survey. 

This information will be used for the development of management and conservation 

strategies, which will include the development of a monitoring plan after identifying populations 

or ecoregions of concern. At present, population size estimates are available for only a few areas 

(e.g. British Columbia, Alberta, and southeast Colorado). These estimates are derived from very 

different methods, with large variations in reliability. 
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Objective 2 – Develop a plan to monitor long-term trends in population size and distribution. 

Regional and rangewide trend estimates are available from the BBS from 1966 - 2002. 

However, since the reliability and bias associated with BBS data are unknown, LBCU may 

require an additional survey to monitor trends. 

Methods 

 This proposal is for a two-year survey for Objective 1, and development of an alternate 

monitoring survey in Objective 2. 

Objective 1: 

 The general approach will be to: 1) specify a spatial sampling frame covering the 

geographic range of LBCUs; 2) stratify sample units on the basis of factors thought to influence 

LBCU populations; 3) select a random sample of units from each stratum; 4) specify a unit for 

subsampling; and 5) collect data for population estimation. Under this nested, stratified random 

sampling design, adapted from Saunders (2001), it will be possible to estimate population sizes 

and error terms for the strata and geographic area covered by the sampling frame. 

Sampling frame: 

LBCUs need large, open (> 250 m wide), contiguous patches of suitable grassland and 

rangeland habitats, particularly large patches of native grasslands (e.g., Buchloe-Bouteloua

grassland) with a low vegetative profile for nesting. LBCUs rarely nest in seeded pastures, 

although they will use this habitat for other activities. Many other grassland types are used for 

nesting, and are considered suitable habitat. Close proximity to water is not critical for adults, at 

least not early in the breeding season. In southwest Idaho, water was within 5 - 10 km of the 

core nesting grounds during March and April (Redmond and Jenni 1986). Some considerations 

to reduce bias include that LBCUs have a broad but patchy distribution, may be semi-colonial, 

and generally nest in low densities (Dugger and Dugger 2002). 
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We will delineate the geographic range of LBCUs using GIS and combining land cover 

maps that identify potentially suitable nesting habitat (as described above), BBS data, and other 

data on LBCU occurrence (e.g. Breeding Bird Atlases). Land cover maps are available for the 

western United States at 30-m resolution from the National Land Cover Data 

(http://landcover.usgs.gov/nationallandcover.html), or at 1 km resolution for western North 

America from the USGS Land Cover Characteristics Database 

(http://edcdaac.usgs.gov/glcc/nadoc2_0.html). BBS data on LBCUs are available from the 

Patuxent Wildlife Research Center (http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.gov/bbs/). Townships falling 

within areas containing potentially suitable nesting habitat or where LBCUs historically have 

occurred will be considered the population of sample units that comprise the sampling frame. 

Stratification of sample units: 

The goal of stratification is to partition sample population, in this case the population of 

sample units (i.e., townships) comprising the sampling frame, into strata that are relatively 

homogeneous with respect to the variable being measured (i.e., population size). In the present 

case, we will use data from land cover maps, and possibly the BBS, to construct strata into which 

sample units can be placed a priori. One possible approach would be to mimic the scheme used 

by Saunders (2001), in which stratification was based on the percentage of native prairie and/or 

other suitable LBCU habitat in a township. An alternative approach would be to stratify on the 

basis of the existence of contiguous patches of grassland >250 m wide. We will consider these 

approaches and others that might better exploit the land cover and historical bird data available 

to us; it may be possible to post-stratify once we get on the ground and can determine what is 

really available. 

Selection of sample units: 

Sample units within each stratum will be selected using a simple random sampling 

approach (without replacement), where each unit has an equal probability of becoming part of 

the sample population. The number of sample units comprising the sample population will be 
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constrained by the number of personnel that can be hired and distances between selected sample 

units. For the strata and population estimation methods used by Saunders (2001), it was 

estimated that a total of 412 sample units would need to be sampled to detect a 20% change in 

the LBCU nesting population with a power of 90% (a desirable target). As Saunders rightfully 

points out, however, such a target is unrealistic for LBCUs. We will attempt to maximize the 

precision of our LBCU population estimates by sampling as many units as possible within a 

season, and by optimally allocating those units among strata using estimated variances and 

standard statistical formulae (e.g., Cochran 1977). We will use the strata-specific variance 

estimates reported by Saunders (2001), if appropriate for the strata we ultimately define, or will 

estimate strata-specific variances using count data from BBS routes in those strata. After the 

first year of data are collected, the optimal allocation of units among strata will be recomputed 

using actual strata-specific variance estimates. A new set of sample units will be selected for 

surveys in year 2 to maximize information on LBCU distribution and to improve occupancy and 

sightability models (see below). The second year will also be necessary to quantify year effects, 

such as amount of rainfall. 

Specification of subsampling units: 

Within each sample unit, a single 32-km route will be established using the criteria 

specified in Saunders (2001:4) and using suitable habitat in proportion to their availability, and 

points will be designated for sampling at 0.8-km intervals along the route (i.e., 40 points/route). 

Because any particular route represents only one of the many routes (and hence points) that 

could have been established, a route is best considered a subsample of size one from the sample 

unit. As such, it will not be possible (due to lack of replication) to use data from routes to 

estimate error terms for population size for sample units (i.e. error terms for population size can 

not be determined at the route level but data must be combined over many routes to determine 

population size and error terms). Moreover, because points comprising a route are not truly a 

random sample of the population of points existing in a sample unit, parameter estimates derived 

from routes may be biased. Because it is not practical or operationally feasible to randomly 
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sample points in a township, we must assume that parameter estimates obtained from a route are 

representative of the sample unit itself. We believe this assumption is reasonable because the 

area sampled by the route represents 21.8% of the area of the township itself (more if the actual 

search radius exceeds the minimum 400-m radius assumed), a fairly large percentage. 

Data collection on subsampling units: 

The objective of this study is to estimate the population size (N) of LBCUs. To 

accomplish this, two pieces of information are required: n, a random variable representing the 

number of LBCUs counted in an area of interest, and π , the probability of detecting a LBCU in 

an area of interest. Then, given the count data and detection probability, population size can be 

estimated as N = n/π . An important point to note here is that N = n only ifπ =1. That is, all 

LBCUs must be detected in an area of interest with 100% certainty for the count to equal the true 

population size. Anything less then perfect detection will result in a count n that is, to an 

unknown degree, a biased estimate of N. Consequently, it is essential in surveys where 

population size is the parameter of interest to conduct the survey in a manner that allows 

detection probability (π ) to be estimated. 

 In this study, count data from points along a route will be used to estimate the LBCU 

population size for the route, which as described above will be taken as the population estimate 

for the sample unit that contains the route. Routes will be surveyed in a manner coinciding with 

the relatively narrow time window (2-4 weeks) corresponding to the arrival and pre-incubation 

period of LBCUs, when males are most conspicuous in their aerial display flights (Redmond et 

al. 1981). Pilot data on Marbled Godwits (Limosa fedoa) and Willets (Catoptrophorus 

semipalmatus) indicate extremely low detectability rates during the incubation period, and preincubation surveys appear to be the most representative of how many were actually nesting in 

the area (Gratto-Trevor, pers. commun.). We believe that LBCUs behave similarly and LBCU 

surveys will be carried out during the pre-incubation period. At lower elevations and latitudes 

(e.g., north Texas and southwest Idaho) the survey period will begin in early March, whereas at 

higher elevations and latitudes (e.g., Montana's Centennial Valley), surveys will begin in early 
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May, and end 30 May in Canada. 

Routes will be surveyed by teams of two observers who will stop at points spaced 0.8-km 

apart to record all LBCU seen or heard within 5 minutes. Surveys will start 1⁄2 hour before 

sunrise and will continue for 4 - 5 hours. Routes will be placed on secondary roads and other 

rights-of-way, with parallel routes a minimum of 2-km apart. If no roads are located in a 

selected area, a 24-km off-road route will be selected. Data on LBCUs seen or heard at a point 

will be collected so that detection probabilities can be estimated from the count data. 

Specifically, at each stop there will be a primary observer and a secondary observer, and the 

individuals in these roles will alternate between stops. The primary observer will be responsible 

for detecting LBCUs by sight or sound, determining by laser rangefinder the distance band (0 - 

400 m, 400 - 800 m, >800 m) in which the LBCU occurs, and communicating this information to 

the secondary observer. The secondary observer will record the information, including the 1-

minute time interval in which each LBCU was detected, and will record all LBCUs and the 

distance band that were not detected by the primary observer. The time of detection will be 

based on the first observation, whether the first or second observer saw it. Collecting data in this 

manner will allow estimation of detection probabilities and population sizes using two distinctly 

different methods: the double-observer approach of Nichols et al. (2000) and the removal-model 

approach of Farnsworth et al. (2002). Furthermore, because the data will be collected by 

distance band, total area sampled along a route can be calculated so the population size estimate 

for the route can be converted to a density estimate. 

The detection probability (π ) can be decomposed into the product ψ p , whereψ is the 

probability a LBCU is present in an area and p is the probability a LBCU is detected in an area 

given it is present. In large-scale monitoring studies it is often of interest to construct a model 

for ψ using habitat or other covariates, so that model can be used to predict the probability an 

animal occupies a particular area based on habitat (or other covariates) alone. This "occupancy 

model" can then be used to adjust rangewide population size estimates. The model could also be 

used as planning tool for future monitoring activities, and to identify potentially important areas 

for management activities. It is common to model ψ using logistic regression; however, this 
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approach assumes that sample units are correctly classified as occupied or unoccupied. 

Unfortunately, when the conditional detection probability p is less than 1, this assumption is 

violated because there will exist occupied sample units that are classified as unoccupied because 

the LBCUs present went undetected. Modeling p as a function of weather, habitat, observer, or 

other covariates is likewise often of interest in monitoring studies. The resulting "sightability 

model" for p can then be used to identify the best times for surveying or to adjust population size 

estimates to account for variable sightability conditions. 

MacKenzie et al. (2002) offer a solution to the problem of estimating ψ when p < 1. 

They constructed a model that allows joint estimation of ψ and p, and allows these parameters to 

be modeled as functions of covariates. This allows the possibility of constructing a robust 

occupancy model for ψ as well as a sightability model for p, both of which can be exploited for 

planning, research, and management. In this study, assuming sufficient personnel resources and 

adequate travel funds, a small subset of units from our stratified random sample may be selected 

for multiple visits (approximately 5 visits/sample unit) so that ψ and p can be modeled using the 

MacKenzie et al. (2002) approach. Covariates for modeling ψ should be time-constant and sitespecific, and might include things such as % native grassland (grazed and ungrazed), % tame 

pasture, % cultivated (irrigated or dryland), % other dominant grassland and rangeland species 

present (e.g. cheat grass, Bromus secalinus ) and distance to other features (e.g., riparian, 

farmsteads, irrigation canals, industrial activity, gravel pits), distance and type of nearest water; 

and vegetation structure and composition. Covariates for modeling p will include things such as 

time of day, precipitation, wind speed, and observer. 

Statistical Analysis: 

 Population size and density estimates for sample units will be combined to obtain point 

and error estimates for strata and the entire geographic range using the standard formulae of 

sampling theory (Cochran 1977). If data can be obtained to estimate ψ and p under the 

MacKenzie et al. (2002) model, occupancy and sightability models will be constructed and used 
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to adjust point estimates. 

Objective 2: 

The general approach to accomplishing Objective 2 will be to use the information 

obtained from Objective 1 to determine the priority and need for continuing monitoring to 

promote the conservation of LBCU. The data gathered in the rangewide survey (in Objective 1) 

will be used to further evaluate the need for supplemental monitoring and the geographic 

priorities for this monitoring. After this evaluation, the data from Objective 1 could be used to 

design a long-term monitoring program. 

Implementation 

 Implementation of this survey will use existing resources, volunteers, and agency 

biologists, along with the new funding received to hire new personnel. Many state and federal 

biologists, in both the U.S. and Canada, have expressed an interest in cooperating with the 

project, and would be interested in conducting routes in their states and provinces. A minimum 

of four biologists will be needed to complete the surveys, coordinate the volunteers and state 

biologists, analyze the data, and complete the reports (Redmond and Jones 2002). This project 

was selected for implementation by the FWS Region 6 Science Support Team for funding in 

FY03/04 (Redmond and Jones 2002) and the survey will occur in 1 Mar – 30 May, 2004 and 

2005. 

 Many state and provincial natural resources agencies have expressed an interest in 

estimating LBCU population numbers for their state. We will work with them to establish the 

sample sizes required to achieve this goal, and will identify sample units in their jurisdiction that 

were not selected for the rangewide survey so they can survey those routes. Some volunteers, 

particularly in the more populous states, could be used for a number of surveys. In the event 

cooperators and volunteers are only able to collect count data from routes, estimated detection 

probabilities and sightability models from other routes could be used to adjust those data to yield 

population size estimates. 
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Acknowledgements 

We thank the many biologists that assisted us with the ideas and implementation of this study 

proposal including Brad Andres, Jon Bart, J. Scott Dieni, John Dinan, Suzanne Fellows, Susan 

Haig, Sandra Hagen, Bill Howe, Cheri Gratto-Trevor, Jeff Marks, Lew Oring, Fritz Prellwitz, 

Richard Quinlan, Christopher Rustay, and Sue Thomas. For reviews of previous versions, we 

thank Brad Andres, Jon Bart, J. Scott Dieni, Suzanne Fellows, David Klute, Don Paul, Rick 

Lanctot, Robert Russell, and Jason Woodward. We thank all the biologists and naturalists that 

sent us data on Long-billed Curlew locations and arrival dates. Thanks to Doug Backlund and 

Bob Gress for the photos and to BNA and Alan Poole for the range map. 

References 

Bart, J. and C. Francis. In prep. Quantitative Goals for Avian Monitoring Programs. Manuscript. 

Brown, S., C. Hickey, B. Harrington, and R. Gill (eds.). 2001. United States Shorebird 

Conservation Plan. Manomet Center for Conservation Sciences, Manomet, Massachusetts. 70 pp. 

 

Cochran, W.G. 1977. Sampling theory. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. New York.

Dugger, B.D. and K.M. Dugger. 2002. Long-billed Curlew (Numenius americanus). In Birds 

of North America, No. 628 (A. Poole and F.B. Gill, eds.). The Birds of North America, Inc., 

Philadelphia, PA. 

Farnsworth, G.L., K.H. Pollock, J.D. Nichols, T.R. Simons, J.E. Hines, and J.R. Sauer. 2002. A 

removal model for estimating detection probabilities from point-count surveys. Auk 119:414-

425. 

MacKenzie, D.I., J.D. Nichols, G.B. Lachman, S. Droege, J. A. Royle, and C.A. Langtimm. 
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2002. Estimating site occupancy rates when detection probabilities are less than one. Ecology 

83:2248-2255. 

Nichols, J.D., J.E. Hines, J.R. Sauer, F.W. Fallon, J.E. Fallon, and P.J. Heglund. 2000. A 

double-observer approach for estimating detection probability and abundance from point counts. 

Auk 117:393-408. 

Redmond, R. L. and S. L. Jones. 2002. Develop Long-Billed Curlew (Numenius americanus) 

Rangewide Monitoring Guidelines. FY 2003 Fish and Wildlife Science Support Proposal, FWS 

Region 6. 

 

Redmond, R. L. and D. A. Jenni. 1986. Population ecology of the Long-billed Curlew 

(Numenius americanus) in western Idaho. Auk 103: 755-767. 

Redmond, R.L., T.K. Bicak, and D.A. Jenni. 1981. An evaluation of breeding season census 

techniques for Long-billed Curlews (Numenius americanus). Stud. Avian Biol. 6: 197-201. 

Saunders, E. J. 2001. Population estimate and habitat associations of the Long-billed Curlew 

(Numenius americanus) in Alberta. Alberta Species at Risk Report No. 25. Edmonton, AB. 

http://www.abconservation.com/your_dollars_at_work/wildlife_fish/birds/project_details.asp?project=151 

U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service. 2002. Birds of Conservation Concern-2002. USDOI, Fish and 

Wildlife Service, Administrative Report, Arlington, VA. 

Photo by Doug Backlund