### 1 

### Technical Support Document: **Resource Adequacy and Reliability Analysis** 

**August 2015**

This document describes resource adequacy and reliability impacts of the final rule emission guidelines issued under section 111(d) of the Clean Air Act, also known as the Clean Power Plan

. As used here, the term resource adequacy is defined as the provision for adequate generating resources to meet projected load and generating reserve requirements in each power region 1 

### , while reliability includes the ability to deliver the resources to the loads , such that the overall power grid remains stable

.
It is important to recognize that the final rule provides multiple flexibilities that preserve the ability

of responsible authorities to maintain electric reliability, as well as a provision to ensure that electric reliability is adequately maintained in the case of extreme circumstances , amongst other changes to the final rule that will assist states and other authorities with ensuring adequate supplies of electricity and maintaining electric reliab i lity

. For more detail on how the final CPP addresses reliability, see Section VIII of the final rule preamble. The results presented in this document show that power s ystem impacts of the final rule on s ystem operations , under conditions preserving resource adequacy, are modest and manageable

. First, the final rule includes critical timing adjustments in response to comment a bout resource adequacy

and reliability. In particular, the start date for the first compliance period was moved from 2020 to 2022. In addition, building block 2 and building block 3 are both gradually phased in starting in 2022 to give EGUs additional time to make adjustments, including any investments needed for the purpose of ensuring resource adequacy and reliability

.
Second , as with the proposal, the final rule offers considerable flexibility to both states and EGUs. States are given broad latitude to design plans that fit their unique circumstances, including taking into account any resource adequacy

or reliability constraints they may face. One particularly important example of this latitude is that states are encouraged to implement

mass
-based or rate

-based plans that allow EGUs to take advantage of trading both within each state and across states. Moreover, states are given additional flexibility to manage any near
-term

1 As analyzed in this document, power regions correspond to aggregates of IPM regions corresponding to NERC assessment areas.

### 2



### resource adequacy

constraints by

taking advantage of averaging provisions d uring the interim multi

- year compliance period from 2022

- 2029.
Finally, the Reliability

Safety Valve (RSV) provisions in the final rule provide additional flexibilities and provisions that assure states can adequately manage any specific reliability chal lenges that may

arise.
In sum, states can choose different ways of implementing the rule guidelines to meet their targets while meeting their specific needs and maintaining electric reliability . For more detail on the RSV and other ways in which the how the final CPP addresses reliability, see Section VIII of the final rule preamble.
The results presented in this document further demonstrate, for the specific cases illustrated in the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA), that the implementation of this rule can be achieved without undermining resource adequacy or reliability . The focus of the analys is is on comparing two illustrative state p lan scenarios from the RIA to a base case (absent the rule requirements) that is assumed to be adequate and reliable. In this framework, the emphasis is on the incremental changes in the power s ystem that are projected to occur under the presence of the

r ule. 2 

### The EPA uses the Integrated Planning Model (IPM) to project likely future electricity market conditions with and without the proposed rule. 3



### IPM is a multi

-regional, dy namic, deterministic linear programming model of the U.S. electric power sector

. It provides forecasts of least cost capacity expansion, electricity dispatch, and emission control strategies while meeting energy demand and environmental, transmission, dispatch, and reliability

constraints

. The model is designed to reflect electricity markets as accurately as possible . The EPA uses the best available information from utilities, industry experts, gas and coal market experts, financial institutions, and government statistics as the basis for the detailed power sector modeling in IPM

. The model documentation provides additional

2 Both the base and policy cases start from input data on the expected state of the fleet of power plants in 2016 and assume certain planned retirements and additions happen by the end of 2015; the analysis focuses on the impacts of retirements that are projected by the IPM model in the 2020, 2025 and 2030. See the documentation of the NEEDS data base at epa.gov/powersectormodeling for information on what retirements and additions are assumed to occur by the end of 2015. 3 See final rule Regulatory Impact Analysis for more detail on the power sector impacts of the final CPP.

### 3



### information on the assumptions discussed here as well as all other model assumptions and inputs. 4



### IPM ’s least

- cost dispatch solution is designed to ensure generation resource adequacy, either by using existing resources or through the construction of new resources

. IPM addresses reliable delivery

of generation resources for the delivery of electricity

between the 64 IPM regions, based on current and planned transmission capacity, by setting limits to the ability to transfer power between regions using the bulk power transmission system

. Within each model region, IPM assumes that adequate transmission capacity exists to deliver any resources located in, or transferred to , the region

. This document focuss es on key regional results important to management of the power system. For a more complete presentation of the broad power sector impacts of the proposed rule, see the Regulatory Impact Analys is.

**Overview**

In the final rule, the EPA is establishing emission guidelines for states to use in developing plans to address greenhouse gas emissions from existing fossil fuel

- fired electric generating units

. Specifically, the EPA is proposing category

- specific performance rate s for CO 2 

### emissions from power pl ants , as well goals for states to use in developing plans to meet the guidelines

. See final rule preamble for more detail on the final CPP structure and rule requirements. This TSD uses the same scenario s and years of analys is contained in the RIA

. 5 

### The scenarios include a base case (no CPP), a rate

-based state plan scenario and a mass

-based state plan scenario

. For purposes of this resource adequacy and reliability

assessment, estimates and projections are taken from thos e same scenarios and years as shown in the RIA (2020, 2025, and 2030).



## CPP **Rate**

**- Based**  **Scenario s** 

4 Detailed information and documentation of EPA’s Base Case using IPM (v5.13), including all the underlying assumptions, data sources, and architecture parameters can be found on EPA’s website at: http://www.epa.gov/powersectormodeling/BaseCasev513.html 5 S e e Chapter 3 of the RIA for additional detail on the scenarios analyzed.

### 4



### Summary of Changes in Operational Capacity
Total operational capacity is lower in the CPP scenario, primarily from the reduced need for existing and new capacity as a result of increases in energy efficiency

. These increases in
energy efficiency

make possible increases in retirements compared to the base case

. Since most regions currently

have capacity

above their target reserve margins, most of these retirements are absorbe d by

a reduction in excess reserves in the early years

. For illustrative purposes, the 2025 projection period, the first period to fall entirely within the compliance period, is discussed first, followed b y discussion of 2020 and 2030. Operational generating capacity6 

### changes from the base case in 202 5 are summarized below:

Table 1

. Operational Capacity Summary

in 202 5 Base case operational capacity (MW) 1,0 37,223

Minus Retirements in CPP Rate Case: (

- ) Coal

- 22,984 (

- ) Oil

- Gas Steam

- 9,264 (

- ) Combustion Turbine

- 1,942 (

- ) Combined Cyc le

- 1,643 (

- ) Nuclear

- 1,128 (

- ) Less New Capacity

due to EE Reduction

- 12,626 Equals Policy

Case Operational Capacity 9 88,764 7



### Since the model must maintain adequate reserves in each region, a portion of the reduc ed operational capacity in the CPP rate based policy case is taken from reduced need for reserves compared to the base case

. In order to maintain resource adequacy in each region where existing

resources retire, the model relies on any excess reserve that are available from continuing to operate existing capacity, additions of new capacity, re duced total resource requirements from increases in energy

efficiency, and the ability to shift transmission among regions as the generating capacity

mix changes

. As the table shows, the reduced resource needs permit lower

6 Operational capacity is any existing, new or retrofitted capacity that is not retired. 7 Numbers in this table may not sum to numbers in Table A1 due to independent rounding and small classification differences between the base and policy cases.

### 5



### capacity additions even though there are substantial increases in retirements

. Each of these CPP rate based policy case changes is discussed further below.

**Reduction in Reserve Requirements and**  **Excess Reserves**
IPM uses a target reserve margin in each region 8 

### as the basis for determining how much capacity to keep operational in order to preserve resource adequacy

. IPM retires capacity if it is no longer needed to provide energy for load or to provide capacity to meet reserve margin during the planning horizon of the projections

. Since current regional reserves are generally higher than the target reserve margin for the region, and increased energy efficiency will reduce the need for
reserves, IPM may

retire reserve capacity in 20 2 5 if it is not economic to use it to maintain adequate reserve margins

. Existing resources may also be more expensive , compared to alternatives such as building new capacity or transferring capacity from another region

. As a result, many

of the plants that are projected to retire in 20 2 5 will not need to be replaced

. Because existing plants eventually retire in most regions, and IPM builds no more than what it needs to maintain a target reserve margin in each region, the actual reserve margins tend to approach the target reserve margins over time.

Table 1 above shows that operational generating capacity is reduced b y 48, 587 MW (4. 8 percent) nationwide in 20 2 5 under the policy

. 9 

### The majority of this reduction is the result of decreases in the reserve requirements from energy efficiency under the final rule ; in 202 5 new energy efficiency

under the final rule contributes 45,085 MW to reserve capacity 10 

### (see Table B 1 for regional detail)

. M oreover, these reductions are from energy efficiency

that is available in all hours, not just at peak, so it can substitute for existing or new baseload capacity

. A reduction of 4.7 percent in 202 5 will therefore have little overall impact , particularly given the length of time

8 Reserve margin targets are generally based on the NERC 2010 10 Year Assessments for the region, except in cases where there are more stringent state requirements or other exceptions. 9 Regio nal data on operational capacity is shown in Table A1 of the Appendix. 10 The reserve contribution to reserve capacity requirements from energy efficiency is determined by the reduced peak demand and the target reserve margin in each region. For example, if peak demand in reduced by 100 MW and the reserve margin percentage in a region is 15%, the reduction in reserve capacity requirements is 115MW.

### 6



### available to plan for any system changes

. Moreover, retirements are distributed throughout the power grid, so any impacts are expected to be small at the regional level

. 11


### Although there are substantial existing regional variations in reserve margin , IP M adjusts regional operating capacities in 20 2 5 to meet the specific target reserve margin in each region, through changes in the level of retirements, construction of new generating capacity, or transfers of capacity

among regions to meet the specific reserve margin in each region

. Each of these adjustments in the 202 5 projections is described below.
**Change s**  **in Retirements and New Capacity Additions**  **in the CPP Scenarios**  **12**



### The incremental retirements in the final rule case are shown above in Table 1; the 36,931 MW of retirements are in addition to 69,254MW of coal and 12,973MW of oil/gas retirements already occurring in the base case.
By 2025, the increased level of energy efficiency

in the CPP case , compared to the base

cas e, leads to lower levels of overall new capacity additions (shown regionally in Table A5). Renewable additions are approximately the same in both the base and policy cases , largely a result of reduced demand compared to the base case

. The largest decreases in new capacity are in NGCC (7,808MW) and CT (3,131MW). Although there can be local grid reliability issues in replacing some units , these are expected to be manageable within the normal reliability planning and management time frames provided b y the flexible resource options and time frames in the rule

. These retirements and additions in the projections are the result of economic planning for
energy and capac ity

needs modeled in the projections , they are not forced on individual units. In particular, new additions in a base case scenario that do not occur in the policy scenario projections might, in reality, be retained under a policy if local reliability

conditions rendered this the most appropriate choice. This rule does not prevent generation owners from shifting retirements and additions among specific sources to ensure reliability in such circumstances

.
**Reserve Transfers**

11 See maps of IPM regions and NERC Assessment Regions, and the table of target and projected reserve margins in the Appendix C

. IPM regions are based on the regions NERC uses for regional assessments

. These Assessment Regions are used for the Appendix tables in this document. 12 Retirement and additions in this section are all incremental to the base case in 2025 ; the MW values represent
mo del projections of responses to the imposition of the policy, not currently announced retirements or additions that are currently planned or under construction.

### 7



### In cases where it is economic to transfer reserves from a neighboring region , rather than supply reserves from within a region, IPM will transfer reserves, subject to summer and winter limits that are designed to ensure that these reserves can be transferred reliably

. The tran sfer of reserves can occur, for example, if a region retires capacity that was used in the base case to meet reserve requirements , but a neighboring region has lower cost reserves that are not needed for its own reserve requirements

. To examine these trans fers, the EPA analyz ed the change in net transfers from each region, where the net transfer for the base and policy cases is measured by the reserves sent to neighboring regions

. In these cases, a positive value signifies the reserve capacity sent to other regions is larger than the reserve capacity received from other regions (sending and receiving regions can be different), while a negative value signifies that the capacity received is larger than the capacity sent

. Thus, the value measure s the degree to which resources in the region were reserved for use b y other regions (positive value), or where the capacity to meet load in the region was served b y resources in other regions (negative value)

. In each case these reserve transfers represent the use of the transmission system on a firm basis for at least a season.
To look at the impact of the CPP case on transfers , the measure used was the change in the summer reserves sent in the policy case compare d to the base case

. To develop a relative measure of the impact of the policy, the change in reserves was measure d as a percentage of load in the sending region

. This percentage gives an indication of the significance of the policy for changes in the grid

. In general, the percentage changes in the final rule are below the changes in the proposed rule, and all are below 5%

. 13


### Using this measure, the largest percentage change s in reserve transfers are in the Northwest (4.3%), SERC

-North (

- 3.5%), and FRCC (3.1%). The change in the Northwest is attributable primarily to change in transfers from the Pacific Northwest IPM region to California, where an additional 2000MW are transferred to Northern California, including 1000MW shifted from Southern California (LADWP). The net change of 1,134(MW) occurs, in part, as a result of additional operating capacity made available by increased energy efficiency in the policy

case

13 See the Resource Adequacy and Reliability Analysis for the propose d rule. A level of 5% was us ed as a screen in that analysis; given the length of time to plan for compliance with this rule, a 5% shift is expected to be manageable within normal system planning timeframes. In the proposed rule TSD, there were three regions above the 5% threshold.

### 8



### compared to the base case. This shift does not indicate any reliability challenges, as the total
transfers of 3,499MW in the policy case remain substantially below the transfer limit of 4,200MW.
The SERC regions and FRCC have shifts around three percent, with some areas increasing net transfers and others decreasing. These areas also saw shifts in transfers in the modeling for the proposed rule, but the changes in this final rule have reduced these shifts to modest transfers compared to the proposal. In general, the shifts under the final rule show transfers from the Southeastern areas with greater natural gas resources available

– FRCC and SERC

- SE

– toward northern areas with greater amounts of coal

-- TVA and Kentucky

. These transfers in the modeling remain well below the interregional transfers limits and 3 percent or less of the regional load in each case, and it is reasonable to expect them to be manageable, if needed, given the length of time available.

**CPP Rate**

**- Based**  **Scenario in 2020 and 2030**
There are other model projection periods that include years that fall in the period for compliance with the rule. The 2020 projections include the years 2019 through 2022, so one of the years in the period falls in the compliance period. EPA examined the information for the rate scenario for 2020 corresponding to the rate scenario in 2025. This informati on is shown the tables in Appendix A , which correspond to the tables for the 2025 case in Appendix B . Since the projections are representative of the entire four ye ar period, it is difficult to draw firm conclusions with regard to impacts on reliability resulting from the rule. This is because most of the period is outside the compliance period of the final rule, and there can be no direct conflict with the rule except in the very last year of the projection period. The results can be compared below with the 2025 results for purposes of illustration.
The differences between 2020 and 2025 in the CPP rate scenario are driven by the fact that IPM modeling retires capacity from the start of the modeling period in 2016, based on projections that assume complete information about the future and precise economic planning. It thus assumes that capacity retires at the earliest possible moment that it becomes possible to do

so , so that excess reserves are used u p and reserve margins can fall to target levels earlier than expected in practice. Nevertheless, in 2020, seven regions maintain margins above their levels in

### 9



### 2025 (See Table A3). This is consistent with the lower level of overall retirements in 2020

compared to 2025 (24,567MW compare d to 36,961MW in 2025), so the modeling confirms that the any potential resource adequacy pressures from the final rule are not seen until the projections for 2025.

Results for the rate scenario in 2030 are contained in App endix C . Reserve margins in the policy case in 2030 are essentially unchanged (less than 0.5% difference in all regions) from 2025, reflecting the fact that most regions were already at their target margins in 2025 rate scenario. Base case margins decline from 2025 to 2030, as margins above targets are reduced, so that the base case and policy case overall national margins are less than 1 percent different (Table C 3). There continue to be more retirements in the policy case relative to the base case in 2030 (Incremental retirements of 41,009MW in 2030 compared to 36,961MW in 2025, an increase of 5,048 MW). These retirements are offset by a corresponding combination of new
energy efficiency

and changes in new capacity . In 2025, there were 12,626 MW fewer new capacity additions in the CPP case; in 2030 there were 16,964 MW fewer: a net decrease of an incremental 4,338 MW (over the base case) in the 2030 case compared to the comparable 2025 figure. However, the increase in the contribution of energy effic iency

to reserve margin capacity was considerably greater than the combined decrease in new capacity additions and increase in retirements in 2030: the contribution of new energy efficiency

to reserve margin in 2030 was 77,741 MW compared to 45,085 MW in 2025 (See Tables B1 and C1 in the Appendices) , an increase of 22,656 MW.
The generation mix in incremental capacity changes compared to 2025: compared to the base case there less NGCC capacity (7,808 MW less in 2025, 30,080 MW in 2030) and more solar (1,628 less in 2025, 19,970 more in 2030). Given the long planning horizon of 2030, there will be adequate time to plan for potential shifts in the mix of demand and supply resources as these evolve over time. None of these results suggest there will be reasons for concern over the management of resource adequacy



## CPP **Mass**

**- Base**  **d Scenario**  **s**

### 10



### The EPA also examined the mass scenario modeling results to identify differences with the rate scenario potential impacts . The results for the CPP mass

-based scenarios are contained in Appendices D through F for the projection ye ars 2020, 2025 and 2030. Thes e tables correspond to the tables for the CPP Rate

- Based scenarios in Appendices A through C.
As expected, rate and mass cases showed very similar patterns in total operating and reserve capacity, since the IPM model must serve the same loads and ensure the same reserve margins in each case

. In 2025, total operating capacity between rate and mass cases differs by less than one percent and regional operating capacities are within 5 percent except for the BASN regions, where the percentage difference is 8.6%, the result of retirement of a resource (coal) in Utah, which is offset b y increased transmission capacity transfers

. Reserve capacity and projected reserve margins for the mass scenario (Tables E2 and E 3) follow a pattern similar to operating capacity: totals are within 1% of the projections for the corresponding outputs rate scenario and regional reserve capacities are under 5 percent

.
Differences between the scenarios develop in the ty pes of capacity that are retired and in the amount and ty

pes of new capacity built in 202 5

. The mass scenario results show more incremental retirements of coal capacity (29,319 MW compared to 22,984 MW in the rate scenario ) and in Oil

- Gas capacity (10,421 MW compared to 9,264 MW). The mass scenario also

results in more new NGCC and CT capacity, and less new wind and solar capacity. The mass scenario still is projected to have a decrease in new capacity compared to the base case, but the decrease is only 9,971 MW compared to the 12,626 MW in the rate scenario. No reliability concerns are raised b y these differences. 14


### The patterns of transfers are also similar. In the mass scenario, there is somewhat more variation in net transfers than in the rate case. In particular there are two regions with shifts of more than 5% in the mass scenario: the Northwest and BASN, both in WECC. These two shifts are linked. The Northwest reserve transfers include the transfers in the rate scenario discussed above, plus additional transfers from the Northwest to BASN to compensate for the coal retirements in BASN discussed above. The two cases with the largest percentage shift examined above are reduced in magnitude

. These transfers in the mass scenario remain below the

14 For more detail on differences between these scenarios, including the specific scenarios modeled , the mo deling assumptions, and impacts, see the Regulatory Impact Analysis, Chapter 3.

### 11



### interregional transfer limits in the modeling and do not appear to present significant reliability related concerns.
The same general patterns noted here for 2025 are also present in 2020 and 2025: only minor variations in total operating capacity, somewhat higher fossil steam retirements, more NGCC and CT capacity

. These differences do not raise further issues of resource adequacy

. Details can be found in the Appendices.

### 12



### Appendix **A : Tables by IPM Region**  **for CPP**  **Rate**

**- Based**  **Scenario in 202 0** 
**(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year)**

**A1. Projected Operational Capacity**

**A2.**

**. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity** 

**A 3** 

**. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins** 

**A 4** 

**. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case** 
**A5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case** 

**A6. Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region** 

### 13



### A1. **Pr oje**  **cted O**  **pe ra**  **tio nal**  **Capaci ty**  **Yea r=**  **2020**

Al l Ge ne rati on Source s EE Cap aci ty Ove ral l Coal O nl y Re gi on Bas e Policy Contri buti on Change Bas e Policy Basi n (B ASN) 14, 448 14, 340 84 -2 5 5, 064 5, 244 De sert Southwe st (D SW) 42, 114 40, 826 296 -992 8, 380 8, 218 ERC OT 95, 496 95, 624 162 289 17, 937 17, 939 FRCC 56, 419 55, 755 88 -5 76 7, 479 7, 162 ISO-NE 32, 558 31, 167 262 -1,1 30 0 0 MA PP 9, 545 9, 114 7 -424 3, 007 2, 328 MI SO 122, 247 120, 021 958 -1,2 69 45, 045 42, 237 Northe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALN) 30, 690 28, 804 220 -1,667 71 71 Northwe st (NORW) 51, 014 48, 641 330 -2,043 2, 406 2, 354 NYISO 38, 484 36, 199 365 -1,9 21 0 68 PJM 183, 187 181, 901 1, 288 1 50, 144 49, 739 Ro ck ies( Ro ck ) 23, 250 22, 140 135 -9 76 9, 327 8, 365 SE RC- E 52, 103 52, 251 262 411 11, 045 10, 611 SE RC- N 47, 143 46, 949 138 -5 6 13, 722 12, 298 SE RC- SE 59, 679 57, 508 110 -2,061 14, 035 11, 864 SE RC- W 39, 074 38, 286 52 -7 37 4, 733 3, 418 Southe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALS) 40, 576 37, 823 358 -2,3 95 57 57 SPP 77, 768 76, 421 153 -1,195 22, 966 20, 372 Gran d To tal 1, 015, 797 993, 767 5, 267 -1 6, 763 215, 416 202, 344

### 14 

### A2 **. Su mme**  **r Pe**  **ak**

**L oa**  **ds a nd** **R es**  **er**

**ve C** **ap ac**  **it**

**y in 2020** 
**Pr oje**  **ct ed** **R es**  **er**

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s**

**As se**  **ssm en** **t Re**  **gion Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Ba**  **se Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Policy**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Ba se**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Policy** Ba si n (B ASN) 11, 953 11,880 13,926 13,567 Deser t S ou th we st

(D SW ) 29, 612 29,352 34,074 33,314 ER COT 73, 948 73,806 84,116 83,955 FR CC 44, 324 44,253 56,200 55,193 IS O-N E 26,475 26,248 30,446 30,185 MAPP 5, 330 5, 324 6, 603 6, 123 MI SO 90, 719 89,895 106, 505 104, 548 Nor th ern Ca lif

ornia (CA LN )

21, 282 21,090 25,399 24,193 Nor th we st ( NO RW) 25,414 25,175 39,507 34,859 NYI SO 30, 058 29,744 34,868 34,503 PJM 150, 553 149, 437 173, 738 172, 450 Rocki es (R oc k) 14, 156 14,042 17,609 16,654 SER C-E 42, 195 41,966 48,524 48,261 SER C-N 38, 518 38,398 44,296 44,158 SER C-S E 48, 110 48,014 55,327 55,217 SER C-W 29, 095 29,052 37,890 34,798 So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS )

28, 108 27,797 33,588 32,085 SPP 51, 995 51,865 63,790 60,946 **US T**  **ot al**  **761, 845**  **757, 338**  **906, 407**  **885, 008** 

### 15

**A3 . Su** **mma ry**  **of**

**T ar**  **ge t**  **an d Pr** 

**oje ct**  **ed R**  **es er** 

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s in 2020**  **Pr oje**  **ct ed**  **R es**  **er**

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s**

**NERC A**  **sse ssm** **en t**  **Re gion**  **Tar ge**  **t Re**  **se rve**  **Ma rg**  **in Ba**  **se C** **as e**  **Policy C as**  **e Policy %**  **Ab ove**  **Ma rg**  **in Policy** 

**Ch an** **ge f** 

**ro m**  **Ba se**  Basin (BASN) 12.60% 16.51% 14.21% 1.6% -2.3% Deser t So uthw est (DSW ) 13.50% 15.07% 13.50% 0.0% -1.6% ERC OT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0. 0% FRCC 19.25% 26.79% 24.72% 5.5% -2.1% ISO -NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MAPP 15.00% 23.87% 15.00% 0.0% -8.9% MISO 16.30% 17.40% 16.30% 0.0% -1.1% No rther n C alif or ni a (C ALN) 14.71% 19.35% 14.71% 0.0% -4.6% No rth west (NORW) 17.90% 31.61% 25.25% 7.4% -6.4% NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0. 0% PJ M 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0. 0% Rockies (Ro ck) 14.65% 24.39% 18.60% 3.9% -5.8% SERC -E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -W 15.00% 30.23% 19.78% 4.8% -1 0.5% So uthe rn C alif or ni a (C AL S) 15.14% 19.50% 15.42% 0.3% -4.1% SPP 13.60% 22.69% 17.51% 3.9% -5.2% Gr and Tota l 15.30% 18.98% 16.86% 1.6% -2.1%

### 16



### A4

**. Pol**  **ic y**  **Ca se**  **Re ti**  **re d Ca**  **paci ty Incre**  **me ntal**  **to the Bas**  **e Ca**  **se (**  **MW )**  **Yea r=**  **2020**

**CC Coa**  **l CT**  **NU OG**  **S te**  **am To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 180 -1 79 0 0 108 109 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 616 162 0 0 513 1, 290 ERCO T 0 0 0 0 0 0 FRCC 59 317 0 0 288 664 ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1, 725 1, 725 MA PP 0 679 0 0 0 679 MI SO 0 2, 822 0 0 0 2, 822 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 1, 898 0 0 1, 898 Northwe st (NO RW) 1, 465 52 0 867 0 2, 383 NY ISO 81 -68 0 0 1, 674 1, 687 PJM 0 408 0 0 29 437 Roc ki es( Rock ) 39 963 0 0 55 1, 057 SE RC- E 0 434 0 0 0 434 SE RC- N 0 1, 443 0 0 0 1, 443 SE RC- SE 0 2, 171 0 0 0 2, 171 SE RC- W -434 1, 328 0 0 -9 2 802 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 0 0 43 0 2, 440 2, 484 SPP -3 62 2, 619 0 0 226 2, 483 Gran d To ta l 1, 643 13, 149 1, 942 867 6, 966 24, 567

### 17



### A5

**. New** **C apaci**  **ty Pol ic** **y C ase**  **I ncre**  **me ntal**  **t o**  **Bas e**  **Ca se(M**  **W) Yea**  **r= 2020** 

**Re gi**  **on CC**  **CT Win**  **d Sol**  **ar Othe**  **r To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 0 0 0 0 0 0 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 0 0 3 0 0 3 ERCO T -1 96 0 323 0 0 127 FRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0 ISO-NE 0 0 334 0 0 334 MA PP 0 0 247 0 0 247 MI SO 320 0 -3 8 -6 305 581 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 12 0 0 12 Northwe st (NO RW) 0 0 10 0 0 10 NY ISO 0 0 -3 86 0 -2 13 -5 99 PJM 767 -1,692 175 12 -1 15 -8 52 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 0 0 -54 0 -54 SE RC- E 612 0 0 -29 0 583 SE RC- N 1, 203 0 3 0 23 1, 229 SE RC- SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 SE RC- W 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 0 0 -2 70 0 0 -2 70 SPP 0 0 1, 110 0 0 1, 110 Gran d To ta l 2, 705 -1,692 1, 523 -78 0 2, 459

### 18



### A6

**. Ne** **t R eser** **ve s**  **Se nt by NER**  **C As** **sessmen t R**  **eg io**  **n( MW**  **) in**  **2020**

NERCA ssessm en t Regi on Ba se Po lic y Cha ng e fr om Ba se to P ol ic y Cha ng e as

Pe rc en t o f S umme r Pe ak Ba si n (B ASN ) -1,772 -1,522 251 2. 1% Deser t S ou thwe st

(D SW ) 3,869 3,340 -529 -1. 8% ER COT -1,942 -1,942 0 0. 0% FR CC 0 342 342 0. 8% IS O-N E -1,823 -3,212 -1,388 -5. 2% MI SO -2,775 -3,249 -474 -0. 5% Nor th ern Ca lif

orni a (CA LN ) 0 -692 -692 -3. 3% Nor th we st (N OR W) 407 2,675 2, 268 8. 9% NYI SO 320 -1,303 -1,623 -5.4% PJM -4,614 -4,702 -88 -0. 1% Rocki es (R ock) 1,417 1,298 -118 -0. 8% SER C-E -981 -547 434 1. 0% SER C-N 1,502 1,435 -67 -0. 2% SER C-S E 3,800 1,739 -2,061 -4. 3% SER C-W 1,112 3,416 2, 304 7. 9% So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS ) -3,761 -4,884 -1,124 -4. 0% SPP 2,191 2,872 682 1. 3%

### 19



### Appendix **B : Tables by IPM Region**  **for CPP Rate**

**- Based Scenario in 202**  **5**
**(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year)**

**B 1. Projected Operational Capacity** 

**B2**

**. Summary of Summer Peak**  **Loads and Reserve Capacity**

**B 3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins** 

**B 4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case** 

**B 5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case** 

**B 6.**  **Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region**

### 20



### B1. **Pr oje**  **cted O**  **pe ra** **tio nal**  **Capaci ty**  **Yea r=**  **2025**

Al l Ge ne rati on Source s EE Cap aci ty Ove ral l Coal O nl y Re gi on Bas e Policy Contri buti on Change Bas e Policy Basi n (B ASN) 14, 293 13, 888 687 282 4, 802 4, 685 De sert Southwe st (D SW) 42, 265 40, 855 2, 300 890 8, 380 8, 096 ERC OT 99, 864 96, 751 3, 345 232 17, 937 17, 647 FRCC 56, 336 55, 672 2, 080 1, 417 7, 479 7, 162 ISO-NE 32, 685 31, 294 1, 644 252 0 0 MA PP 9, 627 8, 993 207 -428 3, 007 2, 190 MI SO 125, 625 118, 165 6, 127 -1,3 33 45, 036 39, 567 Northe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALN) 29, 389 27, 503 1, 321 -5 65 71 71 Northwe st (NORW) 51, 181 48, 711 2, 036 -434 2, 406 2, 354 NYISO 38, 484 36, 082 2, 173 -2 29 0 0 PJM 188, 212 179, 396 9, 367 551 50, 144 44, 546 Ro ck ies( Ro ck ) 23, 663 22, 284 1, 041 -3 39 9, 216 8, 363 SE RC- E 55, 904 52, 022 2, 556 -1,3 26 11, 045 9, 478 SE RC- N 50, 217 46, 755 2, 051 -1,4 11 13, 141 11, 557 SE RC- SE 57, 354 56, 571 2, 192 1, 409 11, 655 10, 871 SE RC- W 40, 012 37, 823 1, 069 -1,1 21 4, 733 3, 418 Southe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALS) 43, 405 39, 826 2, 159 -1,420 57 50 SPP 78, 704 75, 121 2, 733 -850 22, 966 19, 113 Gran d To tal 1, 037, 223 987, 713 45, 085 -4,425 212, 075 189, 169

### 21 

### B2 **. Su mme**  **r Pe**  **ak**

**L oa**  **ds a nd** **R es**  **er**

**ve C** **ap ac**  **it**

**y in 2025** 
**Pr oje**  **ct ed** **R es**  **er**

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s**

**As se**  **ssm en** **t Re**  **gion Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Ba**  **se Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Policy**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Ba se**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Policy** Ba si n (B ASN) 12,466 11,856 14,036 13,349 Deser t S ou th we st

(D SW ) 31, 887 29,861 36,192 33,892 ER COT 77, 606 74,665 88,276 84,932 FR CC 46, 355 44,611 55,279 53,199 IS O-N E 26, 701 25,272 30,706 29,063 MAPP 5, 539 5, 360 6, 370 6, 164 MI SO 93, 625 88,356 108, 885 102, 758 Nor th ern Ca lif

ornia (CA LN )

22, 305 21,155 25,592 24,301 Nor th we st ( NO RW) 26,489 24,955 36,672 33,098 NYI SO 30, 051 28,179 34,860 32,687 PJM 154, 841 146, 724 178, 686 169, 319 Rocki es (R oc k) 15, 223 14,315 17,676 16,412 SER C-E 44, 263 42,040 50,902 48,346 SER C-N 40,450 38,666 46,517 44,466 SER C-S E 50,430 48,524 57,994 55,802 SER C-W 30, 589 29,660 35,644 34,109 So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS )

29,473 27,605 34,006 31,922 SPP 54, 332 51,926 62,673 58,988 **US T**  **ot al**  **792, 624**  **753, 693**  **920, 969**  **872, 809** 

### 2 2



### B3 **. Su mma**  **ry**

**of T**  **ar ge**  **t an** **d Pr**

**oje ct**  **ed R**  **es er** 

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s in 2025**  **Pr oje**  **ct ed**  **R es**  **er**

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s**

**NERC A**  **sse ssm** **en t**  **Re gion**  **Tar ge**  **t Re**  **se rv** **e Ma**  **rg in**  **Ba se**  **C as**  **e Policy C** **as e**  **Policy % Ab**  **ove M**  **ar**

**gin** Ba sin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0. 0% Deser t So uthw est (DSW) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0. 0% ERC OT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0. 0% FRC C 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0. 0% ISO-NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0. 0% MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0. 0% MI SO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0. 0% Nor the rn C alif or ni a (C ALN) 14.71% 14.74% 14.87% 0.2% No rthw est (NORW) 17.90% 27.05% 25.71% 7. 8% NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0. 0% PJ M 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0. 0% Ro ckies (Ro ck) 14.65% 16.12% 14.65% 0. 0% SERC -E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0. 0% SERC -N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0. 0% SERC -SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0. 0% SERC -W 15.00% 16.52% 15.00% 0. 0% So uthe rn C

alif or ni a (C ALS) 15.14% 15.38% 15.64% 0. 5% SPP 13.60% 15.35% 13.60% 0. 0% Gr and Tot al 15.29% 16.19% 15.80% 0. 5%

### 23



### B4. P **ol ic** **y C ase**  **Re ti**  **re d**  **Ca paci**  **ty Incre me**  **ntal t**  **o the**  **Base C**  **ase (**  **MW) Yea**  **r= 2025** 

**CC Coa**  **l CT**  **NU OG**  **S te**  **am To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 180 118 0 0 108 405 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 616 284 0 0 513 1, 412 ERCO T 0 291 0 0 0 291 FRCC 59 317 0 0 288 664 ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1, 725 1, 725 MA PP 0 817 0 0 0 817 MI SO 0 5, 484 0 0 0 5, 484 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 1, 898 0 0 1, 898 Northwe st (NO RW) 1, 465 52 0 867 0 2, 383 NY ISO 81 0 0 261 1, 674 2, 016 PJM 0 5, 601 0 0 19 5, 620 Roc ki es( Rock ) 39 855 0 0 55 949 SE RC- E 0 1, 566 0 0 0 1, 566 SE RC- N 0 1, 603 0 0 0 1, 603 SE RC- SE 0 783 0 0 0 783 SE RC- W -434 1, 328 0 0 1, 309 2, 203 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 0 7 43 0 2, 514 2, 565 SPP -3 62 3, 878 0 0 1, 060 4, 576 Gran d To ta l 1, 643 22, 984 1, 942 1, 128 9, 264 36, 961

### 24



### B5. **N ew**  **C apaci**  **ty Pol ic** **y Case I**  **ncre me**  **nta l**  **to Base C**  **ase (MW)**  **Yea r=**  **2025 Re**  **gi on**  **CC CT**  **Win d**  **Sol ar**  **Othe r**  **To tal**  Basi n (BASN) 0 0 0 0 0 0 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 0 0 3 0 0 3 ERCO T -2,003 -1,142 323 0 0 -2,8 23 FRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0 ISO-NE 0 0 334 0 0 334 MA PP 0 0 182 0 0 182 MI SO -1,5 34 0 -404 -5 3 0 -1,9 91 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 12 0 0 12 Northwe st (NO RW) 0 0 10 0 -9 6 -8 6 NY ISO 0 0 -3 86 0 0 -3 86 PJM -3 82 -1,988 -696 -1 33 0 -3,1 99 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 0 0 -432 0 -432 SE RC- E -2,008 0 0 -3 08 0 -2,3 16 SE RC- N -1,881 0 3 0 0 -1,878 SE RC- SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 SE RC- W 0 0 0 0 0 0 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 0 0 -2 70 -706 -3 9 -1,0 15 SPP 0 0 965 4 0 969 Gran d To ta l -7,808 -3,1 31 75 -1,6 28 -1 35 -1 2, 626

### 25



### B6. **Ne t R**  **es er** **ve s**  **Se nt by NER**  **C As** **sessmen t R**  **eg ion(**  **MW) in 2025** 

NERCA ssessm en t Regi on Ba se Po lic y Cha ng e fr om Ba se to P ol ic y Cha ng e as

Pe rc en t o f S umme r Pe ak Ba si n (B ASN ) -2,052 -1,769 283 2. 3% Deser t S ou thwe st

(D SW ) 1,846 2,734 888 2. 8% ER COT -1,931 -1,942 -11 0. 0% FR CC 838 2,254 1, 417 3. 1% IS O-N E -2,009 -1,999 10 0. 0% MI SO -2,502 -4,017 -1,515 -1. 5% Nor th ern Ca lif

orni a (CA LN ) -1,490 -2,095 -606 -2. 7% Nor th we st (N OR W) 3,345 4,480 1, 134 4. 3% NYI SO 249 296 47 0. 2% PJM -6,877 -5,637 1, 240 0. 8% Rocki es (R ock) 1,419 1,619 201 1. 3% SER C-E -402 -1,492 -1,091 -2. 5% SER C-N 2,141 728 -1,413 -3. 5% SER C-S E -1,213 196 1, 409 2. 8% SER C-W 3,806 3,149 -657 -2. 1% So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS ) -3,309 -4,091 -782 -2. 7% SPP 3,631 3,059 -572 -1. 1%

### 26



### Appendix **C : Tables by IPM Region**  **for CPP Rate**

**- Based**  **Scenario in 203 0** 
**(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year)**

**C 1. Projected Operational Capacity** 

**C2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity** 

**C 3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserv**  **e Margins**

**C 4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case** 

**C 5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case** 

**C 6.**  **Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region**

### 27



### C1. Proje **ct ed** **O pe**  **ra tio**  **nal C**  **apac ity**  **Yea r=**  **2030**

Al l Ge ne rati on Source s EE Cap aci ty Ove ral l Coal O nl y Re gi on Bas e Policy Contri buti on Change Bas e Policy Basi n (B ASN) 14, 346 13, 942 1, 135 731 4, 802 4, 685 De sert Southwe st (D SW) 42, 265 40, 855 3, 911 2, 501 8, 380 8, 096 ERC OT 107, 231 111, 864 6, 856 11, 490 17, 937 17, 339 FRCC 61, 471 55, 847 4, 357 -1,2 67 7, 414 6, 325 ISO-NE 32, 688 31, 294 2, 518 1, 124 0 0 MA PP 9, 627 9, 322 464 159 3, 007 2, 190 MI SO 126, 164 119, 045 9, 389 2, 269 45, 036 39, 567 Northe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALN) 29, 389 27, 503 1, 976 90 71 71 Northwe st (NORW) 51, 415 49, 030 3, 171 786 2, 406 2, 354 NYISO 39, 032 35, 323 3, 220 -489 0 0 PJM 203, 408 185, 630 15, 258 -2,5 19 50, 129 43, 483 Ro ck ies( Ro ck ) 24, 105 22, 666 1, 777 337 9, 216 8, 363 SE RC- E 59, 039 53, 920 4, 304 -8 14 11, 045 7, 952 SE RC- N 52, 505 48, 091 3, 916 -498 13, 141 11, 084 SE RC- SE 60, 658 60, 265 4, 470 4, 076 11, 655 10, 692 SE RC- W 40, 602 40, 391 2, 247 2, 037 4, 733 3, 418 Southe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALS) 49, 260 44, 898 3, 238 -1,1 24 57 50 SPP 79, 238 74, 663 5, 534 958 22, 506 18, 653 Gran d To tal 1, 082, 444 1, 024, 551 77, 741 19, 847 211, 536 184, 322

### 28 

### C2 **. Su mme**  **r Pe**  **ak**

**L oa**  **ds a nd** **R es**  **er**

**ve C** **ap ac**  **it**

**y in 2030** 
**Pr oje**  **ct ed** **R es**  **er**

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s**

**As se**  **ssm en** **t Re**  **gion Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Ba**  **se Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Policy**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Ba se**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Policy** Ba si n (B ASN) 12, 961 11,953 14,594 13,459 Deser t S ou th we st

(D SW ) 34, 589 31,144 39,259 35,348 ER COT 82,455 76,428 93,793 86,936 FR CC 49, 145 45,491 58,606 54,248 IS O-N E 27,433 25,243 31,547 29,029 MAPP 5, 732 5, 329 6, 592 6, 128 MI SO 96,428 88,354 112, 145 102, 756 Nor th ern Ca lif

ornia (CA LN )

23, 372 21,650 26,810 24,834 Nor th we st ( NO RW) 27, 515 25,023 33,947 31,852 NYI SO 30, 694 27,918 35,605 32,385 PJM 160, 273 147, 051 184, 955 169, 696 Rocki es (R oc k) 16,419 14,869 18,824 17,047 SER C-E 46, 801 43,058 53,821 49,517 SER C-N 42, 204 38,799 48,534 44,619 SER C-S E 52, 944 49,057 60,886 56,416 SER C-W 32,436 30,482 37,301 35,054 So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS )

30, 929 28,127 35,684 32,494 SPP 57, 092 52,221 64,857 59,323 **US T**  **ot al**  **829, 421**  **762, 176**  **957, 760**  **881, 143** 

### 29

**C3 . Su** **mma ry**  **of**

**T ar**  **ge t**  **an d Pr** 

**oje ct**  **ed R**  **es er** 

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s in 2030**  **Pr oje**  **ct ed**  **R es**  **er**

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s**

**NERC A**  **sse ssm** **en t**  **Re gion**  **Tar ge**  **t Re**  **se rve**  **Ma rg**  **in Ba**  **se C** **as e**  **Policy C as**  **e Policy %**  **Ab ove**  **Ma rg**  **in Policy** 

**Ch an** **ge f** 

**ro m**  **Ba se**  Basin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0.0% 0. 0% Deser t So uthw est (DSW ) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0.0% 0. 0% ERC OT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0. 0% FRCC 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0.0% 0. 0% ISO -NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MISO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0.0% 0. 0% No rther n C alif or ni a (C ALN) 14.71% 14.71% 14.71% 0.0% 0. 0% No rth west (NORW) 17.90% 23.38% 25.07% 7.2% 1. 7% NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0. 0% PJ M 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0. 0% Rockies (Ro ck) 14.65% 14.65% 14.65% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -W 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% So uthe rn C alif or ni a (C AL S) 15.14% 15.37% 15.53% 0.4% 0.2% SPP 13.60% 13.60% 13.60% 0.0% 0. 0% Gr and Tota l 15.28% 15.47% 15.61% 0.3% 0. 1%

### 30



### C4**. Pol ic** **y C ase**  **Re ti**  **re d**  **Ca paci**  **ty Incre me**  **ntal t**  **o the**  **Base C**  **ase (**  **MW) Yea**  **r= 2030** 

**CC Coa**  **l CT**  **NU OG**  **S te**  **am To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 180 118 0 0 108 405 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 616 284 0 0 513 1, 412 ERCO T 0 600 0 0 0 600 FRCC 59 1, 089 0 0 288 1, 436 ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1, 725 1, 725 MA PP 0 817 0 0 0 817 MI SO 0 5, 484 0 0 0 5, 484 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 1, 898 0 0 1, 898 Northwe st (NO RW) 1, 465 52 0 867 0 2, 383 NY ISO 81 0 0 1 1, 674 1, 756 PJM 0 6, 652 0 -1 19 6, 669 Roc ki es( Rock ) 39 855 0 0 55 949 SE RC- E 0 3, 093 0 0 0 3, 093 SE RC- N 0 2, 076 0 0 0 2, 076 SE RC- SE 0 962 0 0 0 962 SE RC- W -434 1, 328 0 0 1, 309 2, 203 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 0 7 43 0 2, 514 2, 565 SPP -3 62 3, 878 0 0 1, 060 4, 576 Gran d To ta l 1, 643 27, 294 1, 942 867 9, 264 41, 009

### 31



### C5

**. New**  **C apaci**  **ty Pol ic** **y Case I**  **ncre me**  **nta l**  **to Base C**  **ase (MW)**  **Yea r=**  **2030 Re**  **gi on**  **CC CT**  **Win d**  **Sol ar**  **Othe r**  **To tal**  Basi n (BASN) 0 0 1 0 0 1 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 0 0 3 0 0 3 ERCO T -6,3 30 -4,182 323 15, 421 0 5, 232 FRCC -4,1 89 0 0 0 0 -4,1 89 ISO-NE 0 0 331 0 0 331 MA PP 0 0 497 0 15 511 MI SO -1,2 34 0 -3 30 -86 0 -1,650 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 12 0 0 12 Northwe st (NO RW) 0 0 -2 0 0 -2 NY ISO -1,5 67 0 -3 86 0 0 -1,9 53 PJM -6,1 79 -2,899 -8 64 -1,1 72 0 -1 1, 114 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 0 0 -5 29 37 -492 SE RC- E -1,8 38 0 0 -1 88 0 -2,0 26 SE RC- N -2,3 60 0 3 0 0 -2,3 57 SE RC- SE -3,3 04 0 0 3, 873 0 569 SE RC- W -5 89 0 0 2, 569 0 1, 979 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) -1,603 0 -2 70 79 -3 -1,797 SPP -887 0 859 4 0 -24 Gran d To ta l -3 0, 080 -7,081 177 19, 970 50 -1 6, 964

### 32



### C6

**. Ne** **t Re se**  **rve s**  **Se nt by NERC**  **As se**  **ssm en**  **t R eg**  **ion(MW )**  **in 2030** 

NERCA ssessm en t Regi on Ba se Po lic y Cha ng e fr om Ba se to P ol ic y Cha ng e as

Pe rc en t o f S umme r Pe ak Ba si n (B ASN ) -2,563 -1,826 738 5. 7% Deser t S ou thwe st

(D SW ) -1,245 1,269 2, 514 7. 3% ER COT -40 -389 -349 -0.4% FR CC 2,646 1,379 -1,267 -2. 6% IS O-N E -2,848 -1,949 900 3. 3% MI SO -5,473 -3,076 2, 397 2. 3% Nor th ern Ca lif

orni a (CA LN ) -2,709 -2,630 80 0. 3% Nor th we st (N OR W) 6,225 5,945 -279 -1. 0% NYI SO 26 -63 -90 -0. 3% PJM -5,123 -6,100 -977 -0. 6% Rocki es (R ock) 399 1,097 698 4. 3% SER C-E -506 -1,177 -670 -1.4% SER C-N 2,412 1,912 -500 -1. 2% SER C-S E -800 326 1, 126 2. 1% SER C-W 2,732 2,844 112 0. 3% So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS ) -2,124 -3,120 -997 -3. 2% SPP 1,933 2,271 337 0. 6%

### 33



### Appendix **D : Tables by IPM Region**  **for CPP Mass** 

**- Based Scenario in 2020** 
**(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year)**

**D 1. Projected Operational Capacity** 

**D2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity** 

**D 3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins** 

**D 4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case** 

**D 5**  **. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case**

**D 6.**  **Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region**

### 34



### D1 **. Pr oje**  **cted O**  **pe ra**  **tio nal**  **Capaci ty**  **Yea r=**  **2020**

Al l Ge ne rati on Source s EE Cap aci ty Ove ral l Coal O nl y Re gi on Bas e Policy Contri buti on Change Bas e Policy Basi n (B ASN) 14, 448 14, 475 84 111 5, 064 5, 244 De sert Southwe st (D SW) 42, 114 40, 168 296 -1,650 8, 380 7, 501 ERC OT 95, 496 95, 339 162 4 17, 937 17, 550 FRCC 56, 419 55, 636 88 -695 7, 479 7, 131 ISO-NE 32, 558 30, 383 262 -1,9 14 0 0 MA PP 9, 545 9, 022 7 -5 16 3, 007 2, 545 MI SO 122, 247 118, 757 958 -2,5 33 45, 045 39, 926 Northe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALN) 30, 690 28, 522 220 -1,948 71 71 Northwe st (NORW) 51, 014 49, 408 330 -1,2 76 2, 406 2, 354 NYISO 38, 484 36, 626 365 -1,494 0 0 PJM 183, 187 181, 488 1, 288 -4 11 50, 144 49, 784 Ro ck ies( Ro ck ) 23, 250 22, 246 135 -869 9, 327 8, 407 SE RC- E 52, 103 52, 109 262 269 11, 045 11, 176 SE RC- N 47, 143 47, 672 138 667 13, 722 12, 696 SE RC- SE 59, 679 57, 662 110 -1,907 14, 035 12, 018 SE RC- W 39, 074 38, 826 52 -196 4, 733 3, 918 Southe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALS) 40, 576 38, 137 358 -2,082 57 57 SPP 77, 768 75, 481 153 -2,1 35 22, 966 20, 139 Gran d To tal 1, 015, 797 991, 956 5, 267 -18, 575 215, 416 200, 515

### 35 

### D2 **. Su mme**  **r Pe**  **ak**

**L oa**  **ds a nd**  **Re se**  **rv e**  **Ca pa**  **cit y in**  **2020**
**Pr oje**  **ct ed** **R es**  **er**

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s**

**As se**  **ssm en** **t Re**  **gion Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Ba**  **se Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Policy**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Ba se**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Policy** Ba si n (B ASN) 11, 953 11,878 13,926 13,375 Deser t S ou th we st

(D SW ) 29, 612 29,352 34,074 33,314 ER COT 73, 948 73,806 84,116 83,955 FR CC 44, 324 44,253 56,200 55,045 IS O-N E 26,475 26,248 30,446 30,185 MAPP 5, 330 5, 324 6, 603 6, 123 MI SO 90, 719 89,895 106, 505 104, 548 Nor th ern Ca lif

ornia (CA LN )

21, 282 21,090 25,399 24,193 Nor th we st ( NO RW) 25,414 25,181 39,507 35,702 NYI SO 30, 058 29,744 34,868 34,503 PJM 150, 553 149, 437 173, 738 172, 450 Rocki es (R oc k) 14, 156 14,045 17,609 16,994 SER C-E 42, 195 41,966 48,524 48,261 SER C-N 38, 518 38,398 44,296 44,158 SER C-S E 48, 110 48,014 55,327 55,217 SER C-W 29, 095 29,053 37,890 35,696 So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS )

28, 108 27,797 33,588 32,053 SPP 51, 995 51,864 63,790 60,300 **US T**  **ot al**  **761, 845**  **757, 343**  **906, 407**  **886, 072** 

### 36

**D3 . Su** **mma ry**  **of**

**T ar**  **ge t**  **an d Pr** 

**oje ct**  **ed R**  **es er** 

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s in 2020**  **Pr oje**  **ct ed**  **R es**  **er**

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s**

**NERC A**  **sse ssm** **en t**  **Re gion**  **Tar ge**  **t Re**  **se rve**  **Ma rg**  **in Ba**  **se C** **as e**  **Policy C as**  **e Policy %**  **Ab ove**  **Ma rg**  **in Policy** 

**Ch an** **ge f** 

**ro m**  **Ba se**  Basin (BASN) 12.60% 16.51% 12.60% 0.0% -3.9% Deser t So uthw est (DSW ) 13.50% 15.07% 13.50% 0.0% -1.6% ERC OT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0. 0% FRCC 19.25% 26.79% 24.39% 5.1% -2.4% ISO -NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MAPP 15.00% 23.87% 15.00% 0.0% -8.9% MISO 16.30% 17.40% 16.30% 0.0% -1.1% No rther n C alif or ni a (C ALN) 14.71% 19.35% 14.71% 0.0% -4.6% No rth west (NORW) 17.90% 31.61% 28.79% 10.9% -2.8% NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0. 0% PJ M 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0. 0% Rockies (Ro ck) 14.65% 24.39% 21.00% 6.4% -3.4% SERC -E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -W 15.00% 30.23% 22.87% 7.9% -7.4% So uthe rn C alif or ni a (C AL S) 15.14% 19.50% 15.31% 0.2% -4.2% SPP 13.60% 22.69% 16.27% 2.7% -6.4% Gr and Tota l 15.30% 18.98% 17.00% 1.7% -2.0%

### 37



### D4. **P ol**  **ic y**  **Ca se**  **Re ti**  **re d Ca**  **paci ty Incre**  **me ntal**  **to the Bas**  **e Ca**  **se (**  **MW )**  **Yea r=**  **2020**

**CC Coa**  **l CT**  **NU OG**  **S te**  **am To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 43 -1 79 0 0 108 -2 8 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 553 881 0 0 513 1, 948 ERCO T 0 391 0 0 0 391 FRCC 148 348 0 0 288 784 ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1, 910 1, 910 MA PP 0 462 0 0 0 462 MI SO 0 5, 146 0 -1,1 12 0 4, 034 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 141 0 1, 898 0 0 2, 039 Northwe st (NO RW) 675 52 0 860 0 1, 588 NY ISO 81 0 0 0 1, 330 1, 411 PJM 0 363 0 0 377 740 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 921 0 0 0 921 SE RC- E 0 -1 32 0 0 0 -1 32 SE RC- N 0 1, 042 0 0 0 1, 042 SE RC- SE 0 2, 017 0 0 0 2, 017 SE RC- W -434 823 0 0 -9 2 297 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 2 0 75 0 2, 942 3, 019 SPP -2 06 2, 845 0 -5 54 98 2, 184 Gran d To ta l 1, 004 14, 981 1, 974 -806 7, 474 24, 627

### 38



### D5. **N ew** **C apaci**  **ty Pol ic** **y C ase**  **I ncre**  **me ntal**  **t o**  **Bas e**  **Ca se(M**  **W) Yea**  **r= 2020** 

**Re gi**  **on CC**  **CT Win**  **d Sol**  **ar Othe**  **r To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 0 0 -1 0 0 -1 ERCO T 233 0 -3 0 0 230 FRCC 0 0 0 0 0 0 ISO-NE 0 0 -2 65 0 0 -2 65 MA PP 0 0 -6 2 0 0 -6 2 MI SO 905 0 -688 -6 305 516 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 -1 9 0 -1 10 -1 28 Northwe st (NO RW) 0 0 -1 9 0 0 -1 9 NY ISO 0 0 -448 0 0 -448 PJM 1, 380 -1,797 -2 92 -1 6 -2 37 -9 62 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 0 0 -84 0 -84 SE RC- E 0 0 0 -1 25 0 -1 25 SE RC- N 1, 554 0 0 0 0 1, 554 SE RC- SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 SE RC- W 0 0 0 0 41 41 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 834 0 -2 55 0 0 580 SPP 0 0 -1 21 0 0 -1 21 Gran d To ta l 4, 906 -1,797 -2,1 72 -2 31 0 706

### 39



### D6. **Ne t R**  **eser ve**  **s Se**  **nt by NER C**  **As sessmen**  **t R eg**  **io n(**  **MW )**  **in 2020** 

NERCA ssessm en t Regi on Ba se Po lic y Cha ng e fr om Ba se to P ol ic y Cha ng e as

Pe rc en t o f S umme r Pe ak Ba si n (B ASN ) -1,772 -1,194 579 4. 8% Deser t S ou thwe st

(D SW ) 3,869 2,684 -1,185 -4. 0% ER COT -1,942 -1,942 0 0. 0% FR CC 0 371 371 0. 8% IS O-N E -1,823 -3,534 -1,710 -6. 5% MI SO -2,775 -3,958 -1,183 -1. 2% Nor th ern Ca lif

orni a (CA LN ) 0 -909 -909 -4. 3% Nor th we st (N OR W) 407 2,617 2, 210 8. 7% NYI SO 320 -906 -1,226 -4. 1% PJM -4,614 -4,697 -84 -0. 1% Rocki es (R ock) 1,417 1,091 -325 -2. 3% SER C-E -981 -616 365 0. 9% SER C-N 1,502 2,169 667 1. 7% SER C-S E 3,800 1,893 -1,907 -4. 0% SER C-W 1,112 3,043 1, 931 6. 6% So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS ) -3,761 -4,543 -782 -2. 8% SPP 2,191 3,440 1, 250 2.4%

### 40



### Appendix **E : Tables by IPM Region**  **for CPP Mass**

**- Based Scenario in 2020** 
**(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year)**

**E 1. Projected**  **Operational Capacity**

**E2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and Reserve Capacity** 

**E 3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins** 

**E 4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case** 

**E 5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case** 

**E 6.**  **Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region**

### 41



### E1 **. Proje ct**  **ed Ope**  **ra tio**  **nal Capac**  **ity Yea**  **r= 2025** 

Al l Ge ne rati on Source s EE Cap aci ty Ove ral l Coal O nl y Re gi on Bas e Policy Contri buti on Change Bas e Policy Basi n (B ASN) 14, 293 12, 687 687 -9 19 4, 802 3, 345 De sert Southwe st (D SW) 42, 265 40, 374 2, 300 409 8, 380 7, 501 ERC OT 99, 864 96, 691 3, 345 171 17, 937 16, 950 FRCC 56, 336 55, 647 2, 080 1, 391 7, 479 7, 131 ISO-NE 32, 685 30, 497 1, 644 -545 0 0 MA PP 9, 627 9, 028 207 -3 93 3, 007 2, 407 MI SO 125, 625 118, 290 6, 127 -1,209 45, 036 37, 169 Northe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALN) 29, 389 27, 278 1, 321 -791 71 17 Northwe st (NORW) 51, 181 48, 752 2, 036 -3 93 2, 406 1, 513 NYISO 38, 484 36, 517 2, 173 205 0 0 PJM 188, 212 178, 002 9, 367 -843 50, 144 43, 013 Ro ck ies( Ro ck ) 23, 663 21, 906 1, 041 -7 17 9, 216 7, 797 SE RC- E 55, 904 52, 622 2, 556 -7 27 11, 045 10, 907 SE RC- N 50, 217 48, 098 2, 051 -68 13, 141 11, 405 SE RC- SE 57, 354 56, 885 2, 192 1, 722 11, 655 11, 185 SE RC- W 40, 012 38, 007 1, 069 -9 36 4, 733 3, 918 Southe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALS) 43, 405 39, 745 2, 159 -1,501 57 57 SPP 78, 704 74, 286 2, 733 -1,685 22, 966 18, 522 Gran d To tal 1, 037, 223 985, 310 45, 085 -6,8 28 212, 075 182, 836

### 42 

### E2. Su **mme r**  **Pe ak** 

**L oa**  **ds a nd** **R es**  **er**

**ve C** **ap ac**  **it**

**y in 2025** 
**Pr oje**  **ct ed** **R es**  **er**

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s**

**As se**  **ssm en** **t Re**  **gion Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Ba**  **se Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Policy**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Ba se**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Policy** Ba si n (B ASN) 12,466 11,856 14,036 13,349 Deser t S ou th we st

(D SW ) 31, 887 29,861 36,192 33,892 ER COT 77, 606 74,665 88,276 84,932 FR CC 46, 355 44,611 55,279 53,199 IS O-N E 26, 701 25,272 30,706 29,063 MAPP 5, 539 5, 360 6, 370 6, 164 MI SO 93, 625 88,356 108, 885 102, 758 Nor th ern Ca lif

ornia (CA LN )

22, 305 21,155 25,592 24,301 Nor th we st ( NO RW) 26,489 24,909 36,672 32,084 NYI SO 30, 051 28,179 34,860 32,687 PJM 154, 841 146, 724 178, 686 169, 319 Rocki es (R oc k) 15, 223 14,315 17,676 16,412 SER C-E 44, 263 42,040 50,902 48,346 SER C-N 40,450 38,666 46,517 44,466 SER C-S E 50,430 48,524 57,994 55,802 SER C-W 30, 589 29,660 35,644 34,109 So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS )

29,473 27,604 34,006 31,897 SPP 54, 332 51,927 62,673 58,997 **US T**  **ot al**  **792, 624**  **753, 649**  **920, 969**  **871, 777** 

### 43

**E3 . Su** **mma ry**  **of**

**T ar**  **ge t**  **an d Pr** 

**oje ct**  **ed R**  **es er** 

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s in 2025**  **Pr oje**  **ct ed**  **R es**  **er**

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s**

**NERC A**  **sse ssm** **en t**  **Re gion**  **Tar ge**  **t Re**  **se rve**  **Ma rg**  **in Ba**  **se C** **as e**  **Policy C as**  **e Policy %**  **Ab ove**  **Ma rg**  **in Policy** 

**Ch an** **ge f** 

**ro m**  **Ba se**  Basin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0.0% 0. 0% Deser t So uthw est (DSW ) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0.0% 0. 0% ERC OT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0. 0% FRCC 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0.0% 0. 0% ISO -NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MISO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0.0% 0. 0% No rther n C alif or ni a (C ALN) 14.71% 14.74% 14.87% 0.2% 0. 1% No rth west (NORW) 17.90% 27.05% 25.96% 8.1% -1.1% NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0. 0% PJ M 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0. 0% Rockies (Ro ck) 14.65% 16.12% 14.65% 0.0% -1.5% SERC -E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -W 15.00% 16.52% 15.00% 0.0% -1.5% So uthe rn C alif or ni a (C AL S) 15.14% 15.38% 15.55% 0.4% 0.2% SPP 13.60% 15.35% 13.62% 0.0% -1.7% Gr and Tota l 15.29% 16.19% 15.67% 0.4% -0.5%

### 44



### E4

**. Pol**  **ic y Case**  **Re ti**  **re d Capa**  **ci ty Incre**  **me nta**  **l to the**  **Base C**  **ase (**  **MW )**  **Yea r=**  **2025**

**CC Coa**  **l CT**  **NU OG**  **S te**  **am To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 43 1, 458 0 0 108 1, 609 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 553 881 0 0 513 1, 948 ERCO T 0 991 0 0 0 991 FRCC 148 348 0 0 288 784 ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1, 910 1, 910 MA PP 0 600 0 0 0 600 MI SO 0 7, 895 0 -1,1 12 0 6, 783 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 141 54 1, 898 0 0 2, 093 Northwe st (NO RW) 675 893 0 860 0 2, 429 NY ISO 81 0 0 109 1, 330 1, 520 PJM 0 7, 134 0 0 367 7, 501 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 1, 421 0 0 0 1, 421 SE RC- E 0 137 0 0 0 137 SE RC- N 0 1, 753 0 0 0 1, 753 SE RC- SE 0 470 0 0 0 470 SE RC- W -434 823 0 0 1, 957 2, 346 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 2 0 75 0 3, 016 3, 093 SPP -2 06 4, 462 0 -5 54 932 4, 635 Gran d To ta l 1, 004 29, 319 1, 974 -697 10, 421 42, 021

### 45



### E5

**. Ne**  **w Capa ci**  **ty Pol ic** **y Ca se**  **I ncre**  **me ntal**  **to Base C**  **ase (M**  **W) Yea**  **r= 2025** 

**Re gi**  **on CC**  **CT Win**  **d Sol**  **ar Othe**  **r To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 0 0 3 0 0 3 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 0 0 55 0 0 55 ERCO T -5 2 -2,1 34 0 0 0 -2,1 85 FRCC 94 0 0 0 0 94 ISO-NE 0 0 -2 65 0 -1 3 -2 78 MA PP 0 0 0 0 0 0 MI SO -948 0 416 -48 0 -5 81 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 -1 9 0 0 -1 9 Northwe st (NO RW) 0 0 73 0 -7 3 0 NY ISO 0 0 -448 0 0 -448 PJM 1, 447 -2,094 -1,9 33 -1 33 0 -2,7 13 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 0 0 -3 75 37 -3 38 SE RC- E -2,6 20 0 0 -5 25 0 -3,145 SE RC- N -3 83 0 0 0 0 -3 83 SE RC- SE 0 0 0 0 0 0 SE RC- W 333 0 0 0 0 333 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 834 0 -2 55 -1,1 14 -3 2 -5 67 SPP 0 0 -6 6 -1 267 200 Gran d To ta l -1,2 95 -4,2 28 -2,439 -2,1 97 187 -9,9 71

### 46



### E6. **Ne t Re**  **se rve**  **s Se**  **nt by NERC As** **se ssm**  **en t R**  **eg ion(MW**  **) in**  **2025**

NERCA ssessm en t Regi on Ba se Po lic y Cha ng e fr om Ba se to P ol ic y Cha ng e as

Pe rc en t o f S umme r Pe ak Ba si n (B ASN ) -2,052 -2,971 -919 -7.4% Deser t S ou thwe st

(D SW ) 1,846 2,219 372 1. 2% ER COT -1,931 -1,760 172 0. 2% FR CC 838 2,229 1, 391 3. 0% IS O-N E -2,009 -2,345 -337 -1. 3% MI SO -2,502 -4,422 -1,920 -1. 9% Nor th ern Ca lif

orni a (CA LN ) -1,490 -2,298 -808 -3. 6% Nor th we st (N OR W) 3,345 5,486 2, 141 8. 1% NYI SO 249 834 585 1. 9% PJM -6,877 -6,098 779 0. 5% Rocki es (R ock) 1,419 1,175 -243 -1. 6% SER C-E -402 -727 -325 -0. 7% SER C-N 2,141 2,074 -68 -0. 2% SER C-S E -1,213 509 1, 722 3.4% SER C-W 3,806 3,330 -476 -1. 6% So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS ) -3,309 -3,860 -552 -1. 9% SPP 3,631 2,846 -785 -1.4%

### 47



### Appendix **F : Tables by IPM Region**  **for CPP Mass**

**- Based Scenario in 2020** 
**(Note: All Results Cumulative through Projection Year)**

**F 1. Projected Operational Capacity** 

**F2. Summary of Summer Peak Loads and R** **eserve Capacity**

**F 3. Summary of Target and Projected Reserve Margins** 

**F 4. Policy Case Retired Capacity Incremental to Base Case** 

**F 5. New Capacity in Policy Case Incremental to Base Case** 

**F 6.**  **Net Reserves Sent by NERC Assessment Region**

### 48



### F1. **Proje ct**  **ed Ope**  **ra tio**  **nal Capac**  **ity Yea**  **r= 2030** 

Al l Ge ne rati on Source s EE Cap aci ty Ove ral l Coal O nl y Re gi on Bas e Policy Contri buti on Change Bas e Policy Basi n (B ASN) 14, 346 13, 573 1, 135 361 4, 802 3, 172 De sert Southwe st (D SW) 42, 265 40, 844 3, 911 2, 490 8, 380 7, 115 ERC OT 107, 231 113, 686 6, 856 13, 312 17, 937 16, 619 FRCC 61, 471 57, 489 4, 357 375 7, 414 6, 324 ISO-NE 32, 688 30, 510 2, 518 340 0 0 MA PP 9, 627 9, 288 464 125 3, 007 2, 171 MI SO 126, 164 117, 707 9, 389 931 45, 036 35, 626 Northe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALN) 29, 389 27, 278 1, 976 -1 36 71 17 Northwe st (NORW) 51, 415 48, 834 3, 171 589 2, 406 1, 332 NYISO 39, 032 35, 605 3, 220 -207 0 0 PJM 203, 408 185, 441 15, 258 -2,709 50, 129 39, 667 Ro ck ies( Ro ck ) 24, 105 24, 184 1, 777 1, 855 9, 216 7, 657 SE RC- E 59, 039 53, 149 4, 304 -1,5 85 11, 045 10, 405 SE RC- N 52, 505 49, 374 3, 916 785 13, 141 10, 953 SE RC- SE 60, 658 56, 487 4, 470 298 11, 655 10, 221 SE RC- W 40, 602 38, 739 2, 247 385 4, 733 3, 918 Southe rn Cal ifo rn ia ( CALS) 49, 260 46, 137 3, 238 114 57 57 SPP 79, 238 75, 215 5, 534 1, 510 22, 506 18, 036 Gran d To tal 1, 082, 444 1, 023, 537 77, 741 18, 833 211, 536 173, 291

### 49



### F2. Su **mme r**  **Pe ak** 

**L oa**  **ds a nd**  **Re se**  **rv e**  **Ca pa**  **cit y in**  **2030**
**Pr oje**  **ct ed** **R es**  **er**

**ve M**  **ar gin** **s**

**As se**  **ssm en** **t Re**  **gion Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Ba**  **se Pe**  **ak**

**De ma**  **nd Policy**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Ba se**  **Re se**  **rv e** 

**Ca pa**  **cit y**  **Policy** Ba si n (B ASN) 12, 961 11, 953 14, 594 13,459 Deser t S ou th we st

(D SW) 34, 589 31, 144 39, 259 35,348 ER COT 82, 455 76, 428 93, 793 86,936 FR CC 49, 145 45, 491 58, 606 54,248 IS O-N E 27, 433 25, 243 31, 547 29,029 MAPP 5, 732 5, 329 6, 592 6, 128 MI SO 96, 428 88, 354 112, 145 102, 756 Nor th ern Ca lif

ornia (CA LN )

23, 372 21, 652 26, 810 24,867 Nor th we st ( NO RW) 27, 515 25, 057 33, 947 32,335 NYI SO 30, 694 27, 918 35, 605 32,385 PJM 160, 273 147, 051 184, 955 169, 696 Rocki es (R oc k) 16, 419 14, 869 18, 824 17,047 SER C-E 46, 801 43, 058 53, 821 49,517 SER C-N 42, 204 38, 799 48, 534 44,619 SER C-S E 52, 944 49, 057 60, 886 56,416 SER C-W 32, 436 30, 482 37, 301 35,054 So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS )

30, 929 28, 127 35, 684 32,494 SPP 57, 092 52, 245 64, 857 59,639 **US T**  **ot al**  **829, 421**  **762, 235**  **957, 760**  **881, 975** 

### 50

**F3 . Su** **mma ry**  **of**

**T ar**  **ge t**  **an d Pr** 

**oje ct**  **ed R**  **es er** 

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s in 2030**  **Pr oje**  **ct ed**  **R es**  **er**

**ve Ma**  **rg in** **s**

**NERC A**  **sse ssm** **en t**  **Re gion**  **Tar ge**  **t Re**  **se rve**  **Ma rg**  **in Ba**  **se C** **as e**  **Policy C as**  **e Policy %**  **Ab ove**  **Ma rg**  **in Policy** 

**Ch an** **ge f** 

**ro m**  **Ba se**  Basin (BASN) 12.60% 12.60% 12.60% 0.0% 0. 0% Deser t So uthw est (DSW ) 13.50% 13.50% 13.50% 0.0% 0. 0% ERC OT 13.75% 13.75% 13.75% 0.0% 0. 0% FRCC 19.25% 19.25% 19.25% 0.0% 0. 0% ISO -NE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MAPP 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% MISO 16.30% 16.30% 16.30% 0.0% 0. 0% No rther n C alif or ni a (C ALN) 14.71% 14.71% 14.85% 0.1% 0. 1% No rth west (NORW) 17.90% 23.38% 25.23% 7.3% 1. 9% NYISO 16.00% 16.00% 16.00% 0.0% 0. 0% PJ M 15.40% 15.40% 15.40% 0.0% 0. 0% Rockies (Ro ck) 14.65% 14.65% 14.65% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -E 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -N 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -SE 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% SERC -W 15.00% 15.00% 15.00% 0.0% 0. 0% So uthe rn C alif or ni a (C AL S) 15.14% 15.37% 15.53% 0.4% 0.2% SPP 13.60% 13.60% 14.15% 0.6% 0. 6% Gr and Tota l 15.28% 15.47% 15.71% 0.4% 0.2%

### 51



### F4

**. Pol**  **ic y C**  **ase Re**  **ti re**  **d Ca**  **paci ty Incre**  **me ntal**  **to the Bas**  **e Ca**  **se (**  **MW )**  **Yea r=**  **2030**

**CC Coa**  **l CT**  **NU OG**  **Ste am**  **To tal**  Basi n (BASN) 43 1, 630 0 0 108 1, 782 De se rt S outhwe st (D SW) 553 1, 267 0 0 513 2, 334 ERCOT 0 1, 321 0 0 0 1, 321 FRCC 148 1, 089 0 0 288 1, 525 ISO-NE 0 0 0 0 1, 910 1, 910 MA PP 0 836 0 0 0 836 MI SO 0 9, 437 0 -5 21 0 8, 916 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 141 54 1, 898 0 0 2, 093 Northwe st (NO RW) 675 1, 074 0 860 0 2, 610 NY ISO 81 0 0 1 1, 330 1, 412 PJM 0 10, 469 0 -1 367 10, 835 Roc ki es ( Roc k) 0 1, 561 0 0 0 1, 561 SE RC- E 0 639 0 0 0 639 SE RC- N 0 2, 205 0 0 0 2, 205 SE RC- SE 0 1, 433 0 0 0 1, 433 SE RC- W -434 823 0 0 1, 957 2, 346 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 2 0 75 0 3, 016 3, 093 SPP -2 06 4, 488 0 -5 54 932 4, 660 Gran d To tal 1, 004 38, 328 1, 974 -2 15 10, 421 51, 512

### 52



### F5

**. Ne**  **w Capa ci**  **ty Pol ic** **y Ca se**  **I ncre**  **me ntal**  **to Base C**  **ase (M**  **W) Yea**  **r= 2030** 

**Re gi**  **on CC**  **CT Win**  **d Sol**  **ar Othe**  **r To** **tal** Basi n (BASN) 479 0 6 523 0 1, 008 De se rt Southwe st (D SW ) 0 0 57 853 0 911 ERCO T -4,3 78 -5,1 73 0 17, 325 0 7, 773 FRCC -2,458 0 0 0 0 -2,458 ISO-NE 0 0 -2 68 0 0 -2 68 MA PP 0 0 497 0 0 497 MI SO -543 0 1, 054 -80 0 431 Northe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CAL N) 0 0 -1 9 0 0 -1 9 Northwe st (NO RW) 0 0 28 0 0 28 NY ISO -1,5 67 0 -448 0 0 -2,0 15 PJM -3 25 -3,004 -2,2 07 -1,602 0 -7,1 39 Roc ki es( Rock ) 0 0 0 1, 601 37 1, 638 SE RC- E -4,4 18 0 0 -8 33 0 -5,2 50 SE RC- N -943 0 0 0 0 -943 SE RC- SE -2,7 39 0 0 0 0 -2,7 39 SE RC- W 476 0 0 0 0 476 Southe rn C al ifo rn ia ( CALS) 117 0 -2 55 79 29 -3 0 SPP -5 05 0 859 -2 267 619 Gran d To ta l -1 6, 804 -8,1 77 -696 17, 864 334 -7,479

### 53



### F6. **Ne t R**  **eser ve**  **s Se**  **nt by NER C**  **As se**  **ssm en**  **t Re gi**  **on(M W)**  **in 2030** 

NERCA ssessm en t Regi on Ba se Po lic y Cha ng e fr om Ba se to P ol ic y Cha ng e as

Pe rc en t o f S umme r Pe ak Ba si n (B ASN ) -2,563 -2,563 1 0. 0% Deser t S ou thwe st

(D SW ) -1,245 631 1, 877 5.4% ER COT -40 260 301 0.4% FR CC 2,646 3,021 375 0. 8% IS O-N E -2,848 -2,282 567 2. 1% MI SO -5,473 -5,470 2 0. 0% Nor th ern Ca lif

orni a (CA LN ) -2,709 -2,864 -154 -0. 7% Nor th we st (N OR W) 6,225 5,246 -979 -3. 6% NYI SO 26 301 275 0. 9% PJM -5,123 -4,891 232 0. 1% Rocki es (R ock) 399 1,114 715 4.4% SER C-E -506 -1,455 -948 -2. 0% SER C-N 2,412 3,197 785 1. 9% SER C-S E -800 -503 298 0. 6% SER C-W 2,732 3,122 390 1. 2% So uthe rn Ca lif

orni a (CA LS ) -2,124 -1,859 264 0. 9% SPP 1,933 2,389 456 0. 8%

### 54 

### Appendix C: **Maps**
**C1. IPM Regions**

**C2.**

**. NERC Assessment Regions** 

### 55 

### C1: **IP M v5.13 Regions** 

### 56



# C2: **NERC Assessment Areas in Long Term Reliability Assessment.**

Source: NERC 2012 Long Term Reliability Assessment

### 57