11-i

CHAPTER 11. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

11.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 11-1

11.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE FORECASTED EFFICIENCY 

DISTRIBUTIONS, BALLAST STOCKS, AND AVERAGE EFFICIENCY ................. 11-1

11.2.1 Installed Ballast Stock........................................................................................... 11-2

11.2.2 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Stock ............................................................... 11-7

11.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS .................................................................................. 11-9

11.3.2 National Energy Savings Definition ..................................................................... 11-9

11.3.3 National Energy Savings Inputs.......................................................................... 11-10

11.3.3.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC) ........................................................ 11-10

11.3.3.2 Ballast Stock ........................................................................................ 11-10

11.3.3.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors ...................................................... 11-11

11.3.3.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning 

Systems ................................................................................................ 11-12

11.3.3.5 Rebound Rate ....................................................................................... 11-13

11.4 NET PRESENT VALUE ................................................................................................ 11-13

11.4.1 Net Present Value Definition .............................................................................. 11-13

11.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs .................................................................................... 11-14

11.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ................................................. 11-14

11.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings ................................................. 11-15

11.4.2.3 Discount Factor .................................................................................... 11-15

11.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS ........... 11-16

11.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary ...................... 11-16

11.5.2 National Energy Savings Results ........................................................................ 11-16

11.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis ................................................................................ 11-19

11.5.4 Net Present Value Results ................................................................................... 11-25

LIST OF TABLES

Table 11.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs ........................................................................... 11-10

Table 11.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors ..................................................................... 11-12

Table 11.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs .................................................................................... 11-14

Table 11.5.1. National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Inputs ..................................... 11-16

Table 11.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts Under the Existing, Shift 

Scenario (2014–2043) .................................................................................................. 11-17

Table 11.5.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts Under the Emerging, RollUp Scenario (2014–2043) ............................................................................................ 11-18

Table 11.5.4 Cumulative NPV Results for Ballasts Under the Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario and Emerging Technologies, Roll-up Scenarios (2014-2043) ............. 11-25

LIST OF FIGURES
11-ii

Figure 11.2.1 Product Class 1 – Instant-Start (IS) and Rapid-Start (RS) Ballasts That 

Operate Two 4-Foot Medium Bipin (MBP) Lamps (Commercial): Installed 

Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies Shift Scenario) ................................. 11-3

Figure 11.2.2 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps (Residential): Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario) ............................................................................................................... 11-3

Figure 11.2.3 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ..... 11-4

Figure 11.2.4 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot Slimline 

Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) ..... 11-4

Figure 11.2.5 Product Class 2 – Programmed-Start (PS) Ballasts That Operate Two 4-

Foot MBP Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario) ............................................................................................................... 11-5

Figure 11.2.6 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .................. 11-5

Figure 11.2.7 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot Miniature Bipin 

(MiniBP) Standard Output (SO) Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case 

Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario).......................................................................... 11-6

Figure 11.2.8 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP High 

Output (HO) Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario) ............................................................................................................... 11-6

Figure 11.2.9 Product Class 3 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot HO Lamps: 

Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) .................. 11-7

Figure 11.2.10 Product Class 5 – Ballasts That Operate Four 8-Foot HO Lamps in Cold 

Temperature Outdoor Signs: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) ........................................................................................ 11-7

Figure 11.2.11 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Ballast Stock, Emerging Technologies, 

Roll Scenario, 2014–2043 .............................................................................................. 11-8

Figure 11.2.12 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Ballast Stock, Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario, 2014–2043 ............................................................................................. 11-8

Figure 11.5.1 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps (Commercial): National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating 

Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 

Percent per Year ........................................................................................................... 11-20

Figure 11.5.2 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps (Residential): National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating 

Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 

Percent per Year ........................................................................................................... 11-20

Figure 11.5.3 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP 

Lamps: National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at 

TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ..... 11-20

Figure 11.5.4 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot Slimline 

Lamps: National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at 

TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ..... 11-21
11-iii

Figure 11.5.5 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ................ 11-21

Figure 11.5.6 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ................ 11-22

Figure 11.5.7 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP SO 

Lamps: National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at 

TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ..... 11-22

Figure 11.5.8 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP HO 

Lamps: National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at 

TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ..... 11-23

Figure 11.5.9 Product Class 3 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot HO Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year ................ 11-23

Figure 11.5.10 Product Class 5 – Ballasts That Operate Four 8-Foot HO Lamps in Cold 

Temperature Outdoor Signs: National Annual Total Installed Equipment and 

Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Discounted at 7 Percent per Year................................................................................. 11-24
11-1

CHAPTER 11. NATIONAL IMPACTS ANALYSIS

11.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter of the notice of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) technical support document 

(TSD) describes the method for estimating the national impacts of trial standard levels (TSLs) for 

analyzed fluorescent lamp ballasts (hereafter “ballasts”). Because ballasts are designed to operate 

fluorescent lamps, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) chose the most common fluorescent 

lamp used with each ballast to develop representative lamp-and-ballast systems. Fluorescent lamps 

will not be regulated under the proposed amended energy conservation standards for ballasts; 

however, the characteristics of complete lamp-and-ballast systems (e.g., energy consumption, 

installed cost) must be considered for estimating the national impacts of ballast TSLs. 

In the national impact analysis (NIA), DOE assessed the cumulative national energy 

savings (NES) and the cumulative national economic impacts of TSLs. DOE measured energy 

savings as the cumulative quads of energy a TSL is expected to save the nation. DOE measured 

economic impacts as the net present value (NPV) in dollars of total customer costs and savings 

expected to result from a TSL. The analysis period over which DOE calculated the NPV and 

NES is from 2014 to 2043. 

DOE determined both the NPV and NES for each TSL and each representative product 

class it selected in the engineering analysis (NOPR TSD chapter 5). In this rulemaking, DOE 

considered up to three TSLs for each of the representative ballast product classes. 

DOE performed all NIA calculations using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, available at 

www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballasts.html. 

Appendix 11A provides instructions for using the spreadsheet.

The following sections describe in detail the methodology and inputs for the NIA.

Several NIA inputs, including per-unit costs, per-unit energy consumption, and national 

shipments, are discussed in other analyses. In describing the inputs to the NIA, this chapter 

references those analyses and presents new information on installed stock. Section 11.2 discusses 

DOE’s ballast shipment forecasts by TSL, the installed stock of ballasts, and the mix of 

efficiencies of that stock. Section 11.3 discusses DOE’s calculation of national energy 

consumption in the base and standards cases, and the resulting difference in NES between these 

cases. Section 11.4 discusses the NPV calculation. Section 11.5 presents the NES and NPV 

results by representative product class. 

11.2 BASE-CASE AND STANDARDS-CASE FORECASTED EFFICIENCY 

DISTRIBUTIONS, BALLAST STOCKS, AND AVERAGE EFFICIENCY

The characteristics of DOE’s shipment forecasts (such as equipment costs and operating 

costs) and projected ballast stocks (such as average efficiency and energy consumption) are key 

aspects of DOE’s NES and NPV estimates. This section describes these key characteristics of 

stock and shipments as they relate to the NES and NPV. 
11-2

The projected distribution of ballast efficiencies shipped and ballast efficiencies in stock 

are key factors in determining the NPV. Two inputs to the NPV are the per-unit total installed 

cost and per-unit annual operating cost. The per-unit total installed cost often varies with the 

efficiency of ballasts shipped. Therefore, when higher efficiency ballasts are shipped, higher 

installed costs are often incurred. NOPR TSD chapter 8 describes how per-unit total installed 

costs vary as a function of efficiency for each lamp ballast. 

Per-unit annual energy consumption is a key input to the NPV (as an input to the per-unit 

operating cost) and NES. The per-unit annual energy consumption is a function of lamp-andballast system characteristics in the installed stock. The total installed stock of lamp-and-ballast 

systems is used to determine total annual energy consumption, a key input into the NES and 

NPV calculations. 

Also important to determining NES and NPV is the average efficiency of the lamp ballast 

stock. The engineering analysis (NOPR TSD chapter 5) discusses the relationship between lampand-ballast system design, system input power, and ballast efficiency. The energy use 

characterization (NOPR TSD chapter 6) describes how the per-unit energy consumption varies as 

a function of system input power and market sector application for each lamp-and-ballast system 

design. 

Sections 11.3.3 and 11.4.2 discuss inputs to calculation of the NES and NPV in further 

detail.

11.2.1 Installed Ballast Stock

The installed ballast stock in a given year is the total number of ballasts shipped that year 

and in prior years that are still operating. The NES model tracks the ballasts shipped each year, 

and ballasts are retired when they reach the end of their lifetime. From this information and the 

shipments forecasts presented in chapter 10, DOE established the installed ballast stock profile 

for all analyzed ballast product classes. Figure 11.2.1 through Figure 11.2.10 show these ballast

stocks in the base case for the existing technologies shift scenario. At TSL 3, the roll-up and shift 

scenarios are the same: both scenarios assume that the entire market moves to TSL 3, or the 

highest efficiency level available for product classes that do not have an available TSL 3 

efficiency level option. 

For most types of ballasts, installed stock increases over time, particularly in the existing 

technologies scenario. However, some ballast types experience a decline in stocks over the 

analysis period due to growing substitution for other ballast types, as shown in chapter 10. 
11-3

Figure 11.2.1 Product Class 1 – Instant-Start (IS) and Rapid-Start (RS) Ballasts That 

Operate Two 4-Foot Medium Bipin (MBP) Lamps (Commercial): Installed Ballast Stock 

(Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Figure 11.2.2 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Residential): Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

-

100 

200 

300 

400 

500 

600 

700 

800 

201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline/EL1

EL 2

EL 3

Baseline(T12)

-

100 

200 

300 

400 

500 

600 

700 

201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline/EL1 

EL 3

Baseline(T12)
11-4

 

Figure 11.2.3 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps:

Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Figure 11.2.4 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot Slimline 

Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

-

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline/EL2 

EL 3

-

2 

4 

6 

8 

10 

12 

20142016201820202022202420262028

20302032

20342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline/EL2 

EL3

Baseline/EL1 
11-5

Figure 11.2.5 Product Class 2 – Programmed-Start (PS) Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot 

MBP Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

Figure 11.2.6 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps:

Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline 

EL 2

EL 3

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

2014201620182020202220242026

20282030

203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline 

EL 1

EL3
11-6

Figure 11.2.7 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot Miniature Bipin 

(MiniBP) Standard Output (SO) Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Figure 11.2.8 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP High Output 

(HO) Lamps: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) 

-

100 

200 

300 

400 

500 

600 

700 

800 

201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline 

EL 1

EL 2

EL 3

-

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

120 

140 

160 

180 

201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline 

EL 1

EL 2

EL 3
11-7

Figure 11.2.9 Product Class 3 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot HO Lamps: 

Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario)

Figure 11.2.10 Product Class 5 – Ballasts That Operate Four 8-Foot HO Lamps in Cold 

Temperature Outdoor Signs: Installed Ballast Stock (Base Case Existing Technologies, 

Shift Scenario)

11.2.2 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Stock

As discussed earlier, the average efficiency of ballast stocks can be an indication of the 

energy consumption, and is an important input to both the NPV and NES calculations. Figure 

11.2.11 and Figure 11.2.12 present the average efficiency forecasts of ballast stocks (as 

represented by ballast efficiency) in the base case and standards case for both the existing 

-

200 

400 

600 

800 

1,000 

1,200 

201420162018202020222024202620282030203220342036203820402042

Thousands

Baseline 

EL1

Baseline/EL 2

EL3

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

90 

2014201620182020202220242026

2028

2030203220342036203820402042

Millions

Baseline 

EL 1
11-8

technologies/shift and emerging technologies/roll-up scenarios. Each figure presents the 

efficiencies at multiple TSLs. 

Figure 11.2.11 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Ballast Stock, Emerging Technologies, 

Roll-Up Scenario, 2014–2043 

Figure 11.2.12 Average Ballast Efficiency in the Ballast Stock, Existing Technologies, Shift 

Scenario, 2014–2043

85.00 

86.00 

87.00 

88.00 

89.00 

90.00 

91.00 

92.00 

93.00 

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Average BE

Base Case 

TSL 1

TSL 2

TSL 3

85.00 

86.00 

87.00 

88.00 

89.00 

90.00 

91.00 

92.00 

93.00 

2014201620182020202220242026202820302032203420362038204020422044

Base Case 

TSL 1

TSL 2

TSL 3
11-9

11.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

11.3.2 National Energy Savings Definition 

DOE calculated annual national energy savings as the difference in energy consumption 

by lamp-and-ballast systems between the base case (without new standards) and the standards 

case (with new standards). Positive values of NES correspond to net energy savings following 

standards implementation; i.e., national annual energy consumption (AEC) with standards is less 

than AEC in the base case.

NESt = (AEC ,baset − AECt,std ) HVAC ×× RR Eq. 11.1 

Where: 

NESt = national energy savings in year t, 

AEC = annual national energy consumption each year (at the source) in quadrillion 

British thermal units (quads), 

HVAC= heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC) factor, 

RR = rebound factor, equal to one minus the rebound rate, 

t = year in the forecast (e.g., 2014 to 2043), 

base = base case, and 

std = standards case.

Cumulative energy savings are the sum over a defined time period from the implementation of a 

standard forward (from 2014 to 2043) of the annual national energy savings multiplied by the 

HVAC interaction factor and rebound rate.

= ∑tNEScum NESt Eq. 11.2

Where: 

NEScum = cumulative national energy savings.

DOE calculated the AEC (in any year) by multiplying the number or stock of ballasts by 

the product of the annual unit energy consumption and the site-to-source conversion factor, 

shown by the following equation:

bd t

bd

t bdt AEC = ∑STOCK ×× srcUEC _ conv Eq. 11.3

Where: 

bd = ballast ID number,

STOCKbdt = stock of ballasts for a given design surviving in the year for which DOE 

calculated AEC,

UECbd = unit energy consumption (kWh per year), and
11-10

src_convt = time-dependent conversion factor to convert from site energy (kWh) to 

source energy (quads, Btu/kWh).

11.3.3 National Energy Savings Inputs 

Table 11.3.1 lists the inputs for the determination of NES.

Table 11.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs 

Input

Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)

Ballast Stock by Design (STOCK)

Site-to-Source Conversion Factor (src_conv)

Heating, Ventilation, Air Conditioning Factor (HVAC)

Rebound Rate (RR)

11.3.3.1 Unit Energy Consumption (UEC)

DOE presented the per-unit UEC for each lamp-and-ballast system design in the energy 

use characterization (NOPR TSD chapter 6). For the NES and NPV calculations, DOE used an 

average number of annual operating hours for each sector and ballast type in calculating the UEC 

of each lamp-and-ballast system design.

California Utilities and the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA) and Northeast 

Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) suggested that both individual ballast failure replacements 

and system installations for new construction/renovation could be normalized for light output at 

any given efficiency level. This could be accomplished through foreseeable ballast design 

options and/or lighting system modifications (e.g., number of lamps, lamp type, or fixture 

reflector). NEEA and NPCC contended that DOE could then simplify its analyses by applying 

normalized system input power throughout. (California Utilities, No. 30 at pp. 3-5; NEEA and 

NPCC, No. 32 at pp. 6-7)

In its preliminary analysis, DOE used both rated and normalized system input power in 

determining the annual unit energy consumption for the NIA. As in the life-cycle cost (LCC) 

analysis, ballast shipments for failure replacements were assigned rated system input power, and 

this assumption was applied across the entire 30-year analysis period. DOE agrees that the 

lighting system modifications noted by the California Utilities can have the practical effect of 

normalizing light output for individual replacement systems. Therefore, DOE believes that 

normalized system input power provides a reasonable basis for estimating future energy savings

and used it to generate NIA results. 

11.3.3.2 Ballast Stock 

The ballast stock in a given year is the total number of ballasts shipped in prior years that 

survive up to the given year. The NES spreadsheet model keeps track of the ballasts shipped 

each year. DOE discusses forecasted shipments for the base case and all standards cases in 

chapter 10. To generate the shipments that eventually compose the ballast stock, the shipments 

analysis incorporates one set of base-case scenarios and one set of standards-case scenarios that 
11-11

can affect shipments. The base-case scenarios, existing and emerging technologies, dictate the 

penetration of other lighting technologies, and therefore affect the total volume of ballast 

shipments and installed stock. The standards-case scenarios are composed of the roll-up and shift 

scenarios. These scenarios dictate the inputs to the market-share apportionments, and therefore 

affect the breakdown of the installed stock by ballast design from 2014 to 2043. 

These standards-case scenarios are compared to two separate base-case scenarios (existing 

and emerging technologies), resulting in four possible sets of results. The shift scenario generally 

results in higher energy savings than the roll-up scenario. 

11.3.3.3 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

The site-to-source conversion factor is the multiplier DOE used for converting siteenergy consumption into primary or source energy consumption. For electricity, the conversion 

factors vary over time due to projected changes in generation sources (i.e., the power plant types

projected to provide electricity to the country). For this rulemaking, DOE calculated annual 

average site-to-source conversion factors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling 

Systems (NEMS) that corresponds to the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual 

Energy Outlook 2010(AEO2010). Table 11.3.2 presents site-to-source factors used in the NES 

spreadsheet model. The average conversion factors vary over time, due to projected changes in 

electricity generation sources. 

Please note that DOE calculated two conversion factors for emerging technologies and 

existing technologies because these two scenarios have different energy savings patterns. 
11-12

Table 11.3.2 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

Year Site-to-Source 

Conversion Factor for 

Existing Technologies

Btu/kWh

Site-to-Source 

Conversion Factor for 

Emerging Technologies

Btu/kWh

2014 19,354 17,282 

2015 19,354 17,282 

2016 19,354 14,912 

2017 16,493 13,186 

2018 15,736 13,441 

2019 14,248 12,038 

2020 13,221 11,108 

2021 12,550 9,976 

2022 13,659 10,690 

2023 14,193 10,764 

2024 13,302 10,791 

2025 11,635 10,189 

2026 10,492 9,873 

2027 10,265 9,755 

2028 9,400 8,985 

2029 9,377 9,084 

2030 9,265 9,187 

2031 9,275 9,265 

2032 9,207 9,289 

2033 9,165 9,208 

2034 8,960 9,358 

2035 10,174 9,875 

2036 10,174 9,875 

2037 10,174 9,875 

2038 10,174 9,875 

2039 10,174 9,875 

2040 10,174 9,875 

2041 10,174 9,875 

2042 10,174 9,875 

2043 10,174 9,875 

11.3.3.4 Interactions with Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning Systems

Interactions HVAC systems in the commercial and industrial sectors are represented by 

an HVAC factor, as given in Eq. 10.3. The HVAC factor reflects the extent to which the energy 

savings from more efficient equipment are offset by increased demands placed on heating and 

cooling equipment in the presence of more efficient equipment. Typically this takes the form of 

increased efficiency being achieved through less energy wasted as heat, increasing the burden on 

HVAC equipment in winter months.

In the previous research (the 2000 Ballast Rule; 65 FR 56740; 10 CFR 430.23(m)(4)) 

DOE found that rebound rate is highly dependent on the composition of building stock. Updating 

the HVAC factor would be desirable, but in this rule higher level uncertainty with regard to 

energy savings comes from the emerging technologies influence. Therefore, an HVAC factor of 

1 was used in energy savings calculations. 
11-13

11.3.3.5 Rebound Rate

In its analysis, DOE considered the rebound effect that occurs after installation of energyefficient lighting equipment. Under economic theory, “rebound effect” refers to the tendency of a 

consumer to respond to the cost savings associated with more efficient equipment in a manner 

that actually leads to marginally greater product usage, thereby diminishing some portion of 

anticipated benefits related to improved efficiency. DOE examined a summary of the literature 

regarding the rebound effect in relation to lighting equipment.1

 Based on four studies, the 

summary estimated that for a 100-percent increase in energy efficiency, “take-back” or rebound 

values for residential lighting are between 5 and 12 percent of energy consumption savings. The 

summary estimated 0- to 2-percent rebound values for commercial and industrial lighting.

Therefore, in the calculation of national energy savings due to energy conservation standards on 

lighting, DOE calculated a rebound rate of 8.5 percent in the residential sector and 1 percent in 

the commercial and industrial sectors. 

However, the take-back in energy consumption associated with the rebound effect 

provides consumers with increased value (e.g., increased lighting hours, because the increased 

efficiency enables consumers to use their lighting equipment for longer periods of time). The 

impact on consumers is therefore the sum of the change in the cost of owning the lighting 

equipment (i.e., LCC) and the increased value of more lighting hours. DOE has not been able to 

monetize this increase in consumer value in the LCC analysis. If it were able to monetize the 

increased value to consumers of the rebound effect, this value would be equal to or greater than

the value of the foregone energy savings. For this analysis, DOE estimates that this value is equal

to the monetary value of the energy savings that would have occurred without the rebound effect. 

Therefore, while the assumed rebound rate affects the calculated energy savings from amended 

standards, it does not affect the calculated monetary value of those savings.

11.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

11.4.1 Net Present Value Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time series of costs and savings. The NPV is 

calculated as follows: 

NPV −= PVCPVS Eq. 11.4

Where: 

PVS = present value of operating cost savings, and

PVC = present value of increased total installed costs.

The PVS and PVC are determined according to the following expressions:

PVS ∑ ×= DFOCS tt Eq. 11.5

PVC ∑TIC ×= DFtt Eq. 11.6
11-14

Where: 

OCS = total annual operating cost savings, 

TIC = total annual installed cost increases, 

DF = discount factor, and 

t = year (PVS and PVC are summed over 2014–2043).

DOE determined the contributions to PVC and PVS for each year from the effective date 

of the standard, 2014 to 2043, discounted for the NOPR analysis to 2011. DOE calculated costs 

and savings as the difference between a standards case (i.e., with amended standards) and a base 

case (i.e., without amended standards). DOE calculated a discount factor from the discount rate 

and the number of years between the “present” (i.e., year to which the sum is being discounted) 

and the year in which the costs and savings occur. DOE calculated the NPV as the sum over time 

of the discounted net savings (which is equivalent to the approach shown in Eqs. 10.4 through 

10.6).

11.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs

Table 11.4.1 summarizes the inputs to the NPV calculation.

Table 11.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs

Input

Total Annual Installed Cost Increases (TICt)

Total Annual Operating Cost Savings (OCSt)

Discount Factor (DF)

Ballast Stock by Design (STOCK)

Ballast Shipments by Design (SHIP)

11.4.2.1 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases 

DOE calculated the increase in total annual installed costs as the difference between the 

total annual installed costs in the standards case minus those in the base case. For each case, the 

total annual installed costs were equal to the product of the shipments and per-unit installed cost 

(summed over each ballast design). 

( )

( )

,

,

∑

∑

× +

= × + −

bd

basebdt bd

bd

t bdt std bd

SHIP equipment price installing

TIC SHIP equipment price installing

On February 22, 2011, DOE published a Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 76 FR 

9696) stating that DOE may consider improving analysis by addressing equipment price trends. 

Consistent with the NODA, DOE examined historical producer price indices (PPIs) for 

fluorescent ballasts and found both positive and negative real price trends depending on the 

specific time period examined. Therefore, in the absence of a definitive trend, DOE assumes in 

its price forecasts for this NOPR that the real prices of fluorescent ballasts are constant in time 

and that fluorescent ballast prices will trend the same way as prices in the economy as a whole. 

DOE is aware that significant changes have occurred in both the regulatory environment and mix 
11-15

of fluorescent ballast technologies during this period that create analytical challenges for 

estimating longer-term product price trends from the product-specific PPI data. DOE performed 

price trends sensitivity calculations to examine the dependence of the analysis results on 

different analytical assumptions. A more detailed discussion of price trend modeling and 

calculations is provided in appendix 8A of the NOPR TSD.

11.4.2.2 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings 

As the LCC and payback period (PBP) analysis (NOPR TSD chapter 8) describes, DOE 

calculated total annual operating costs based on national average electricity prices. DOE 

calculated total annual operating cost savings as the difference between total annual operating 

costs in the base case minus those in the standards case. (The components of annual operating 

cost for lamp-and-ballast systems that are different between the base case and the standards case 

are the cost of electricity consumption and relamping costs.) 

 ( )

( )

, ,

, ,

∑

∑

× × +

= × × + −

bd

bdt std bd std t

bd

t basebdt bd base t

STOCK UEC electricity price relamping

OCS STOCK UEC electricity price relamping

Eq. 11.7

DOE used an average number of annual operating hours for each sector and ballast type 

in calculating the UEC of each lamp-and-ballast design. 

DOE used national average commercial electricity prices for commercial sector 4-foot 

MBP, 8-foot slimline, and 4-foot T5 MiniBP SO systems. DOE used national average industrial 

prices for the 8-foot recessed double contact (RDC) HO and 4-foot T5 MiniBP HO systems. For 

4-foot MBP systems in the residential sector, DOE used national average residential electricity 

prices for its analysis. DOE used AEO2010 to establish all electricity prices.

2, 3 Chapter 8 

provides the electricity price forecasts DOE used to calculate the NPV. 

11.4.2.3 Discount Factor 

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by the discount factor (DF) to calculate 

the present value. The following equation describes how to calculate the DF: 

( )( ) ptt DF r − 11 += Eq. 11.8

Where: 

r = discount rate,

t = year of the monetary value, and

tp = year in which the present value is being determined.

DOE estimated national impacts with both a 3-percent and a 7-percent real discount rate 

as the average real rate of return on investments in the U.S. economy. These discount rates were

used in accordance with the Office of Management and Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal 
11-16

agencies on the development of regulatory analysis, provided in OMB Circular A-4, section E, 

“Identifying and Measuring Benefits and Costs.”4 DOE defined the present year as 2011 for this 

NOPR analysis.

11.5 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS

The NES spreadsheet model provides estimates of the NES and NPV due to various 

TSLs. The inputs to the NES spreadsheet are discussed in sections 11.3.3 and 11.4.2. DOE 

generated the NES and NPV results using Microsoft Excelspreadsheets, accessible at 

http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/fluorescent_lamp_ballasts.

html. Appendix 11A provides instructions for using the spreadsheets. 

11.5.1 National Energy Savings and Net Present Value Input Summary

Table 11.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NES spreadsheet model. A brief description of 

the data is given for each input. 

Table 11.5.1. National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Inputs

Input Data Data Description

Shipments Annual shipments from the ballast shipment model. Historical shipments 

based on U.S. Census Bureau Current Industrial Reports data (NOPR TSD 

chapter 10).

Stock of Ballasts Established based on historical and projected ballast shipments, the service

life of ballasts, penetration of emerging technologies, growth rate, and 

substitution among product classes. 

Effective Date of Standard 2014.

Analysis Period 2014 to 2043.

Unit Energy Consumption (kWh/yr) Established in the energy use characterization (NOPR TSD chapter 6) by 

lamp-and-ballast design and sector.

Total Installed Cost Established in the markups analysis (NOPR TSD chapter 7) and the LCC 

analysis (NOPR TSD chapter 8) by lamp-and-ballast designs.

Electricity Price Forecast EIA forecasts (to 2035) from the AEO2010 and extrapolation for beyond 

2035 (NOPR TSD chapter 9).

Electricity Site-to-Source Conversion Conversion varies yearly and was generated by NEMS-BT (National 

Energy Modeling System–Building Technologies). Conversion factors 

beyond 2035 are extrapolated.

HVAC Interaction Savings Negligible.

Rebound Effect 1% of total energy savings in the commercial sector.

8.5% of total energy savings in the residential sector. 

Discount Rate 3% and 7% real.

Present Year Future costs and savings are discounted to 2011.

11.5.2 National Energy Savings Results 

The following section provides NES results for each TSL that DOE considered for 

ballasts. Results are cumulative to 2043 and are shown as primary energy savings measured in 

quads. As discussed earlier, DOE analyzed several shipment scenarios for ballasts. In this section 
11-17

DOE presents only upper and lower bound energy savings and NPV results (from the 

existing/shift and emerging/roll-up scenarios, respectively). 

Table 11.5.2 and Table 11.5.3 show the NES results under the existing technologies shift

scenario, which reflects the upper bound of energy savings, and the emerging technologies rollup scenario, which reflects the lower bound, respectively. Due to a larger reduction in the 

installed stock of ballasts affected by standards, the emerging technologies base-case forecast 

results in lower energy savings than the existing technologies base-case forecast. Finally, 

because in the shift scenario more consumers move to higher efficiency lamp-and-ballast 

systems than in the roll-up scenario, the shift scenario results in higher energy savings than the 

roll-up scenario.

For this NOPR, DOE analyzed efficiency levels that could be met by a sufficient diversity 

of commercially available ballasts. In addition, DOE considered an alternative scenario in which 

manufacturers are assumed to have the capability to redesign certain representative ballast types to 

be more efficient than the products currently available in the market (see appendix 5F of the NOPR 

TSD). This “advanced technology scenario” affects all representative ballast types in Product Class

1 (IS and RS ballasts). Appendix 11B presents NES results for the advanced technology scenario.

Table 11.5.2 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts Under the Existing, Shift 

Scenario (2014–2043) 

TSL Product Class Undiscounted Discounted at 

3%

Discounted at 

7%

1 IS and RS ballasts that operate 

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (commercial) 1.415 0.784 0.397

Two 4-foot MPB lamps (residential) 0.224 0.126 0.064

Four 4-foot MPB lamps 0 0 0

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0 0 0

PS ballasts that operate

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.189 0.111 0.062

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.448 0.246 0.123

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 0.366 0.194 0.094

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.200 0.113 0.061

Ballasts that operate

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.00033 0.00025 0.00018

Sign ballasts that operate

Four 8-foot HO lamps 0.900 0.545 0.307

Total 3.744 2.120 1.110

2 IS and RS ballasts that operate 

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (commercial) 1.416 0.784 0.398

Two 4-foot MPB lamps (residential) 0.229 0.128 0.066

Four 4-foot MPB lamps 0 0 0

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0.021 0.012 0.007

PS ballasts that operate

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.189 0.111 0.062

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.553 0.304 0.152

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 0.718 0.377 0.179

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.359 0.200 0.104
11-18

Ballasts that operate

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.00031 0.00024 0.00018

Sign ballasts that operate

Four 8-foot HO lamps 0.900 0.545 0.307

Total 4.385 2.462 1.275

3 IS and RS ballasts that operate 

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (commercial) 1.966 1.089 0.552

Two 4-foot MPB lamps (residential) 0.229 0.128 0.066

Four 4-foot MPB lamps 0.318 0.177 0.090

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0.021 0.013 0.007

PS ballasts that operate

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.216 0.126 0.070

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.553 0.304 0.152

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 1.524 0.796 0.373

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.523 0.289 0.148

Ballasts that operate

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.00058 0.00044 0.00031

Sign ballasts that operate

Four 8-foot HO lamps 0.900 0.545 0.307

Total 6.250 3.466 1.765

Table 11.5.3 Cumulative National Energy Savings for Ballasts Under the Emerging, RollUp Scenario (2014–2043) 

TSL Product Class Undiscounted Discounted at 

3%

Discounted at 

7%

1 IS and RS ballasts that operate 

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (commercial) 0.002 0.001 0.001

Two 4-foot MPB lamps (residential) 0.014 0.009 0.005

Four 4-foot MPB lamps 0 0 0

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0 0 0

PS ballasts that operate

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.091 0.056 0.033

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.222 0.128 0.068

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 0.184 0.107 0.059

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.187 0.104 0.055

Ballasts that operate

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.00028 0.00021 0.00015

Sign ballasts that operate

Four 8-foot HO lamps 0.681 0.415 0.235

Total 1.381 0.821 0.456

2 IS and RS ballasts that operate 

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (commercial) 0.679 0.397 0.215

Two 4-foot MPB lamps (residential) 0.214 0.118 0.060

Four 4-foot MPB lamps 0 0 0

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0.001 0.000 0.000

PS ballasts that operate

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.091 0.056 0.033

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.288 0.166 0.089

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 0.315 0.180 0.095

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.319 0.175 0.089

Ballasts that operate

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.00018 0.00014 0.00010
11-19

Sign ballasts that operate

Four 8-foot HO lamps 0.681 0.415 0.235

Total 2.588 1.508 0.816

3 IS and RS ballasts that operate 

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (commercial) 1.020 0.597 0.323

Two 4-foot MPB lamps (residential) 0.214 0.118 0.060

Four 4-foot MPB lamps 0.166 0.098 0.053

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0.020 0.011 0.006

PS ballasts that operate

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.107 0.066 0.038

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.288 0.166 0.089

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 0.712 0.398 0.205

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.491 0.267 0.134

Ballasts that operate

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.00048 0.00037 0.00026

Sign ballasts that operate

Four 8-foot HO lamps 0.681 0.415 0.235

Total 3.699 2.136 1.143

11.5.3 Net Present Value Analysis

The NPV calculation attempts to calculate the total monetary costs and benefits of the 

standard for all consumers of ballasts. This calculation relies primarily on two inputs: the NES 

calculations described in the previous section, which are translated into a decrease (or in some 

cases increase) in operating costs; and the increase (or in some cases decrease) in installed costs. 

This section graphs both elements of NPV over time. Figure 11.5.1 through Figure 

11.5.10 present the discounted annual total installed cost increases and annual operating cost 

savings at the national level using a 7-percent discount rate at TSL 3. Both annual total installed 

cost increases and annual operating costs savings accumulate from 2014 to 2043. The figures 

also present the NPV, which is the difference between cumulative annual discounted operating 

cost savings and the cumulative annual discounted total installed cost increases. 

-

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

350 

2014201720202023202620292032203520382041

Millions

PC 1 Operating cost 

savings

PC 1 Installed costs 

increase

PC 1 Total NPV
11-20

Figure 11.5.1 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Commercial): National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at 

TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

Figure 11.5.2 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps 

(Residential): National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at 

TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

Figure 11.5.3 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

Millions

PC 1 Operating cost 

savings

PC 1 Installed costs 

increase

PC 1 Total NPV

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

Millions

PC 1 Operating cost 

savings

PC 1 Installed costs 

increase

PC 1 Total NPV
11-21

Figure 11.5.4 Product Class 1 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot Slimline 

Lamps: National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 

(Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

Figure 11.5.5 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

-

1 

1 

2 

2 

3 

3 

4 

Millions

PC 1 Operating cost 

savings

PC 1 Installed costs 

increase

PC 1 Total NPV

-

5 

10 

15 

20 

25 

30 

35 

Millions

PC 2 Operating cost 

savings

PC 2 Installed costs 

increase

PC 2 Total NPV
11-22

Figure 11.5.6 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Four 4-Foot MBP Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

Figure 11.5.7 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP SO Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

80 

Millions

PC 2 Operating cost 

savings

PC 2 Installed costs 

increase

PC 2 Total NPV

-

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

2014201720202023202620292032203520382041

Millions

PC 2 Operating cost 

savings

PC 2 Installed costs 

increase

PC 2 Total NPV
11-23

Figure 11.5.8 Product Class 2 – PS Ballasts That Operate Two 4-Foot MiniBP HO Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

Figure 11.5.9 Product Class 3 – IS and RS Ballasts That Operate Two 8-Foot HO Lamps: 

National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing 

Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per Year

-

10 

20 

30 

40 

50 

60 

70 

Millions

PC 2 Operating cost 

savings

PC 2 Installed costs 

increase

PC 2 Total NPV

(1,000)

(500)

-

500 

1,000 

1,500 

2,000 

2,500 

2014201720202023202620292032203520382041

Thousands

PC 3 Operating cost 

savings

PC 3 Installed costs 

increase

PC 3 Total NPV
11-24

Figure 11.5.10 Product Class 5 – Ballasts That Operate Four 8-Foot HO Lamps in Cold 

Temperature Outdoor Signs: National Annual Total Installed Equipment and Operating 

Cost Savings at TSL 3 (Existing Technologies, Shift Scenario) Discounted at 7 Percent per 

Year

In most cases the operating cost savings, installed costs increases, and NPV all trend 

toward zero over time, reflecting the impacts of discounting.

NPV results are cumulative and shown as the discounted value of these savings in dollar 

terms. DOE used national averages for key inputs, such as electricity pricing and sector-specific 

point values for operating hours, in calculating operating cost savings and installed cost 

increases. Thus, the NPV results are discrete point values rather than a distribution of values as 

in the LCC and PBP analyses. 

The present value of increased total installed costs is the total installed cost increase (i.e., 

the difference between the standards case and base case in a given year), discounted to the 

present, and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluated the impact of standards (i.e., 

from the effective date of standards, 2014 to 2043).

Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with higher efficiency ballasts 

purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. DOE calculated total annual 

operating cost savings as the difference between total annual operating costs in the base case 

minus those in the standards case. Eq. 10.7 gives the total annual operating costs in each case. 

In general, the NPV results at each TSL largely reflect the LCC savings at the 

corresponding efficiency levels. As discussed in chapter 8 (LCC and PBP analyses), for most 

ballast purchasing events and most baseline ballast designs, increasing efficiency levels generally 

result in increased LCC savings. Due to the general cost-effectiveness of higher efficiency 

ballasts, the existing technologies base-case forecast (which increases the affected stock and 

(20)

-

20 

40 

60 

80 

100 

120 

140 

160 

2014201720202023202620292032203520382041

Millions

PC 5 Operating cost 

savings

PC 5 Installed costs 

increase

PC 5 Total NPV
11-25

shipments) and the shift scenario (which results in the shipment of more high-efficiency ballasts) 

represent the high-range scenario for NPV. 

11.5.4 Net Present Value Results

Table 11.5.4 lists the NPV results, including the existing technologies, shift scenario, and 

the emerging technologies roll-up scenario. NPV is presented at both 7- and 3-percent discount 

rates. 

As with NES, the NPV results for the advanced technology scenario are presented in 

Appendix 11B.

Table 11.5.4 Cumulative NPV Results for Ballasts Under the Existing Technologies, Shift 

Scenario and Emerging Technologies, Roll-up Scenarios (2014-2043) 

Net Present Value

billion 2009$

Existing

Technologies, Shift

Emerging

Technologies, Roll-Up

Trial 

Standard 

Level

Product Class and Ballast Type 

7 Percent

Discount 

Rate

3 Percent

Discount 

Rate

7 Percent

Discount 

Rate

3 Percent

Discount 

Rate

1 1 - IS and RS ballasts that operate:

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 

(commercial) 3.11 6.82 0.004 0.006

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (residential) 0.44 0.97 0.15 0.24

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0 0 0 0

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0 0 0 0

2 - PS ballasts that operate:

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.48 0.93 0.27 0.50

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.97 2.10 0.58 1.16

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 0.88 1.95 0.56 1.08

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.32 0.66 0.32 0.66

3 - IS and RS ballasts that operate:

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.02 0.03 0.001 0.001

5 - Ballasts that operate:

Four 8-foot HO lamps in cold 

temperature outdoor signs 2.72 5.12 2.33 4.27

Total 8.93 18.58 4.21 7.91

2 1 - IS and RS ballasts that operate:

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 

(commercial) 3.11 6.82 1.79 3.65

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (residential) 0.45 0.98 0.45 0.98

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0 0 0 0

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0.06 0.11 0.01 0.01

2 - PS ballasts that operate:
11-26

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.48 0.93 0.27 0.50

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 1.15 2.50 0.71 1.45

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 1.06 2.50 0.67 1.38

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.26 0.60 0.26 0.59

3 - IS and RS ballasts that operate:

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04

5 - Ballasts that operate:

Four 8-foot HO lamps in cold 

temperature outdoor signs 2.72 5.12 2.33 4.27

Total 9.31 19.62 6.51 12.88

3 1 - IS and RS ballasts that operate:

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 

(commercial) 4.52 9.84 2.84 5.73

Two 4-foot MBP lamps (residential) 0.45 0.98 0.45 0.98

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 0.44 1.02 0.28 0.62

Two 8-foot slimline lamps 0.06 0.12 0.06 0.12

2 - PS ballasts that operate:

Two 4-foot MBP lamps 0.53 1.04 0.31 0.58

Four 4-foot MBP lamps 1.15 2.50 0.71 1.45

Two 4-foot MiniBP SO lamps 1.31 3.42 0.88 2.07

Two 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps 0.25 0.63 0.25 0.63

3 - IS and RS ballasts that operate:

Two 8-foot HO lamps 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.04

5 - Ballasts that operate:

Four 8-foot HO lamps in cold 

temperature outdoor signs 2.72 5.12 2.33 4.27

Total 11.43 24.71 8.13 16.49
11-27

REFERENCES

1. Greening, L.A., D.L. Greene, and C. Difiglio. 2000. Energy Efficiency and Consumption–

The Rebound Effect: A Survey. Energy Policy. 28: pp. 389–401. 

2. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2009 with Projections to 2030. March 2009. (Last accessed February 28, 2011.) 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/aeoref_tab.html>. 

3. U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2009 with Projections to 2030. Updated reference case. April 2009. (Last accessed February 

28, 2011.) <http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html>.

4. Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-4. September 2003. Washington, D.C. 

<http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars/a004/a-4.pdf>.