WRAP Regional Modeling Center - Simulation Specifications 

Scenario Name: 2002 Planning Simulation version D

RMC Code: “Plan02d”

Date Specifications Prepared: 10/26/2007, Last revised 10/27/2008. 

Time Window for Modeling/Analysis: 

 Emissions modeling completed October 17, 2007 

 Air quality modeling November 2007 

 Analysis results January 2008 

 All Plan02d emissions files delivered to TSS October 22, 2007 

Description: The Plan02d case was the fourth and final iteration in the 2002 Planning Case typical-year 

emissions scenario. The Plan02d case includes major updates and corrections to the Plan02c emissions, as 

described in detail in the emission summary below. 

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Purpose/Objective: The objective of this model simulation is to compare modeled visibility with the PRP18a 

case and other future control strategies or sensitivity scenarios to evaluate the Uniform Rate of Progress (URP) 

at WRAP Class I Areas.

Expected Analysis Methods: Specific analysis methods will generally be determined based on the nature of 

the simulation and the stated purpose and objectives. These typically involve a number of standard postprocessing products used to elucidate relevant modeling results and analyses and aid in summarizing and 

interpreting the simulation results. For the present simulation these include: 

 Standard displays of spatial distribution of model predicted concentrations of relevant pollutants 

(Sulfate, Nitrate, PM, OC, EC, etc..) for various temporal periods (daily, monthly, seasonal and annual 

totals). 

 Spatial plots of differences between 2002 and 2018 PRP18a predictions . 

 Output files of SMOKE emissions and CMAQ air quality results to TSS. 

 SMOKE reports processed and uploaded to TSS. 

Input Data: 

Edit this text -- The Plan02d emissions data included data from the Plan 2002 version C (Plan02c) emissions 

and earlier emissions data that are described in pages 7-14 of the RMC 2006 annual report available at: 

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/reports/final/2006/WRAP-RMC_2006_report_FINAL.pdf 

The emissions data for Plan02c are available at: 

http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/qa_plan02c36.shtml

Emissions – emission data and QA found at: http://pah.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/qa_plan02d36.shtml
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The following emissions did not change from previous Plan02 simulations. 

 From Base02a 

o BEIS3 biogenic emissions (includes soil NO) 

o Windblown fugitive PM dust emissions – all components from WRAP WB Dust model 

o WRAP NH3 from WRAP NH3 model 

o Ontario, Canada point fires 

o Mexico road dust 

o CENRAP on-road mobile 

o Gulf of Mexico offshore point 

 From Plan02a 

o Eastern Pacific commercial shipping lanes 

o WRAP baseline wildfires 

o WRAP baseline wildland fire use 

 From Plan02c 

o WRAP baseline prescribed fires (natural and anthropogenic) 

o WRAP baseline agricultural fires 

o WRAP baseline non-federal rangeland fires 

 From PRP18a 

o Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic commercial shipping lanes. 

The following emissions sources were updated in the Plan02d simulation :

 Stationary Area 

o WRAP: 2002 inventory version September 14, 2007 

o CENRAP: included the area fire emissions in the stationary area sector (eliminated the area fire 

sector), using fire inventory data from the stationary area inventory, not the area fire inventory; 

updates to temporal and gridding data for fire sources; 2002 inventory version August 17, 2005; 

o VISTAS: included the area fire emissions in the stationary area sector (eliminated the area fire 

sector); 2002 version G inventory 

o MWRPO: 2002 version K inventory 

o MANE-VU: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

o Mexico: Phase III inventory and updates to gridding data 

o Canada: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

 Non-road Mobile 

o WRAP: New CA 2002 inventory only, see Plan02a for other WRAP states (annual and monthly) 

o CENRAP: new 2002 inventories (annual and monthly) 

o VISTAS: 2002 version G inventory (annual) 

o MWRPO: 2002 version K marine inventory update (annual and monthly) 

o MANE-VU: no inventory updates (see Plan02a) 

o Mexico: Phase III inventory and updates to gridding data (annual) 

o Canada: no inventory updates (see Plan02a) 

 On-road Mobile 

o WRAP: New CA 2002 inventory only; changes to the other WRAP states include the correction 

to the PEC and POA double counting error 

o CENRAP: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

o VISTAS: new 2002 activities and M6 scenario inputs 
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o MWRPO: new 2002 activities and M6 scenario inputs 

o MANE-VU: new 2002 activities and M6 scenario inputs 

o Mexico: Phase III inventory and updates to gridding data 

o Canada: no inventory updates (see Plan02a) 

 Road Dust (extracted from stationary area inventories) 

o PM2.5/PM10 ratio adjustments and county-level (US)/state-level (Mexico)/provincelevel(Canada) vegetative cover transport factors applied to all dust sources 

o WRAP: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

o CENRAP: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

o VISTAS: 2002 version G inventory 

o MWRPO: 2002 version K inventory 

o MANE-VU: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

o Mexico: no change (See Base02a) 

o Canada: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

 Fugitive Dust 

o PM2.5/PM10 ratio adjustments and county-level (US)/state-level (Mexico)/provincelevel(Canada) vegetative cover transport factors applied to all dust sources 

o WRAP: new inventory version September 14, 2007 

o CENRAP: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

o VISTAS: 2002 version G inventory 

o MWRPO: 2002 version K inventory 

o MANE-VU: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

o Mexico: Phase III inventory and updates to gridding data 

o Canada: no inventory updates (see Base02b) 

 Offshore Area, Gulf of Mexico 

o Removed shipping lane portion of the inventory to keep from double counting with the gridding 

shipping inventory 

o new non-shipping inventory from MMS 

 Gridded Offshore Shipping 

o Eastern Pacific: no change (see Plan02a) 

o Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic: Corbet/ENVIRON inventory 

 Point Fires 

o CENRAP: inventories same as Base02a, corrections to speciation profiles 

o VISTAS: 2002 version Base G2 inventory 

 WRAP Oil & Gas 

o Update 2002 inventory 

 Stationary Point 

o WRAP: updated inventory version September 14, 2007 

o CENRAP: updated inventory version March 30, 2007 

o VISTAS: 2002 version G inventory 

o MWRPO: 2002 version K inventory 

o MANE-VU: no inventory updates (see Plan02b) 

o Mexico: Phase III inventory 

o Canada: no inventory updates (see Plan02b) 

 Documentation on input data, model settings, and modeling/QA procedures provided through standard 

reporting products: Plan02d_Inventory_summary_v{mmddyy}.xls

o Simulation schedule and input files 

o Summary of inventory inputs to the simulation with descriptions of the changes to each input 
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 Error tracking and resolutions stored in the UNC Bugzilla database: 

http://bugz.unc.edu/show_bug.cgi?id=2433

Other Inputs and Model Settings

 Initial and Boundary Conditions based on natural GEOS-CHEM simulation 

 Model version, settings and configuration same as for 2002 Planning B 

 Time period simulated – annual, typical year, meteorology for 2002 used 

Results: 

Summary tables and maps

Table 1. Plan02d annual emissions summary by regions (tons/yr) 

Region CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5 PMC 

US 118445985 23059537 69635932 17091938 14791429 15616820 5102817 10553999

Total WRAP 29547611 4928961 22596168 1724327 1298993 4709074 1663673 3084295 

CENRAP 24661511 5670875 15446765 4521535 2679746 7248711 1737440 3665279 

VISTAS 30982474 5525732 20243047 4915103 4818926 2158333 968458 1123020 

MWRPO 15957483 3573701 5438921 3726750 3426658 551425 252148 180237 

MANE-VU 17127599 2583689 5789762 2204116 2314962 881871 414730 448859 

Canada 13981086 2917715 21298330 638601 2553365 2793906 748695 2045254 

Mexico 9838427 1737630 14441852 1438928 3143259 1175074 654952 520332 

Pacific 

Shipping 40868 524797 367468 149 280561 36352 35220 1132 

Atlantic/Gulf 

Shipping 30158 571769 12587 108 229651 63726 62756 971 

Total 260613201 51094407 175270831 36261554 35537551 35235292 11640887 21623377

Table 2. Plan02d WRAP total annual emissions by sector (tons/yr) 

Sector CO NOX VOC NH3 SO2 PM10 PM2_5 PMC 

Fires 8928013 202217 436714 45263 53856 726518 627618 119796 

Area 1268874 259990 1331075 24519 85117 213825 190665 23197 

Point 533870 897910 260247 780738 780738 147818 60424 105346 

Non Road 3917820 1005930 535025 734 67286 74322 69424 4898 

Onroad 12186508 1632549 1028968 55668 30253 50453 38902 11551 

Biogenic 2624814 286996 18197340 0 0 0 0 0 

WOG 46846 118573 439330 0 1182 0 0 0 

Road Dust 0 0 0 0 0 581980 63358 518630 

Fugitive Dust 0 0 0 0 0 915642 146387 769256 

Wind-Blown 

Dust 0 0 0 0 0 1962165 431676 1530489 

Offshore 

Platforms 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Offshore 

Shipping 40868 524797 367468 149 280561 36352 35220 1132 

Ag Ammonia 0 0 0 817256 0 0 0 0 

Total 29547611 4928961 22596168 1724327 1298993 4709074 1663673 3084295 
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Emissions Summary

The objective of emissions simulation Plan02d was to incorporate new emissions data and corrections to errors 

discovered during the QA/QC of previous WRAP-RMC emissions simulations to create a new planning year, 

annual 36-km grid resolution emissions dataset for air quality modeling. As summarized in the Input Data 

Emissions section of this specification sheet, we received 2002 Planning/Typical year inventories for the 

WRAP states and collected updated 2002 inventories for the rest of the U.S. We also obtained new 1999 

national inventories for Mexico. We combined these updated inventory data with both corrected and existing 

emissions data to develop the Plan02d emissions. Simulation Plan02d builds off of the previous simulation in 

the Planning 2002 series, simulation Plan02c. We will summarize simulation Plan02d by RPO, Canada, and 

Mexico in terms of new inventories, emissions data and modeling corrections, and emissions that we reused 

from previous simulations. This section will conclude with a discussion of the overall impacts of these changes 

on the emissions modeling results. 

The RMC received new data for the WRAP states and tribes that included 2002 planning inventories for the 

stationary area, stationary point, mobile, and oil and gas sectors. The stationary area and stationary point 

inventories included updates and corrections to several inventory records throughout the WRAP region. As with 

the rest of the WRAP emissions simulations, we did not include any Tribal area source inventories in simulation 

Plan02d, only Tribal point source inventories. The tribal area source emissions are not in the State inventories, 

they were developed with explicit FIPS codes for different reservations. The reason we have not included these 

data was because they are fairly small magnitude and would require a complete overhaul of the spatial 

surrogates that we have been using to allocate the emissions to the model grids. In addition to creating 

surrogates for the reservations included in the inventories, we would also need to exclude the tribal areas from 

the counties that they overlap. The mobile source inventory updates included new inventories for California 

on-road and non-road mobile sources only; the only changes to the non-California WRAP mobile sources 

included a correction to the on-road mobile processing (described below). We extracted fugitive dust PM 

emissions sources from the stationary area inventory using the list of sources consistent with simulation 

PRP18a. We expanded the list of sources in the stationary area inventory that we categorize as fugitive dust 

between the Plan02b/c series and Base18b simulations. The reason for categorizing these emissions as fugitive 

dust rather than leaving them as stationary area sources is to apply revised PM10/PM2.5 ratios and vegetative 

scavenging reduction factors to the PM emissions from dust sources. The result of using the expanded list of 

fugitive dust emissions sources was an increase in the PM emissions in the fugitive dust sector and a decrease in 

the PM emissions in the stationary area sector in simulation Plan02d relative to simulation Plan02c. The net 

result of the expanded dust list is an overall reduction of PM2.5 emissions through the application of scavenging 

factors to a larger number of sources. As with previous simulations the updated oil and gas inventories consisted 

of both area and point sources. The explicit WRAP oil and gas emissions sector contains only the area source 

oil and gas inventories. The point oil and gas sources are contained in the stationary point inventory. 

The rest of the changes to the WRAP emissions in simulation Plan02d resulted from corrections to modeling 

and data errors discovered since the completion of simulation Plan02c. We corrected errors in the WRAP onroad mobile and domain-wide road dust sectors that we discovered during the QA of simulation Base18b. We 

found that we were double counting primary elemental and organic carbon emissions from brake wear, tire 

wear, and resting-exhaust on-road mobile emissions processes. The net result of this correction was to decrease 

the PM2.5 emissions, specifically in the form of elemental and organic carbon, from the WRAP on-road mobile 

sources in simulation Plan02d relative to Plan02c. During the QA process for simulation Plan02d we discovered 

and corrected an incorrect setting in the SMOKE configuration for road dust sources. In previous simulations 

we assumed that the road dust inventories were developed as average weekday rather than as average day 

inventories (i.e. assuming a 5-day versus a 7-day week). SMOKE uses this information to normalize the 
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inventories to be in terms of an average day before calculating hourly emissions. By correcting this setting in 

simulation Plan02d we decreased the road dust emissions relative to simulation Base02b. The rest of the 

inventory sectors in the WRAP region remained unchanged in simulation Plan02d relative to Plan02c. We also 

made several updates and corrections to the emissions data for the other RPOs, Canada, and Mexico in 

simulation Plan02d. 

We incorporated updated 2002 inventories and some corrections for the non-WRAP, US sources in simulation 

Plan02d. We updated the stationary area, stationary point, on-road mobile, and non-road mobile inventories for 

several non-WRAP RPO’s. As the fugitive dust and road dust inventories are derived from the stationary area 

inventory, the updates to the stationary area inventories also impacted these emissions sectors. As with the 

WRAP inventories, we treated the fugitive and road dust inventories explicitly in order to apply revised 

PM10/PM2.5 ratios and vegetative scavenging reduction factors. We selected the fugitive dust sources from the 

stationary area inventory using the expanded list of sources that we applied for the WRAP states. The SMOKE 

configuration correction for treating the road dust inventories as average day rather than average weekday 

emissions applies also to the non-WRAP sources, including Mexico and Canada. We also eliminated the nonWRAP area-source fire sector, which included CENRAP and VISTAS fires that are inventoried at the countylevel and get modeled as area sources. We folded this category into the stationary area sector for simulation 

Plan02d; this change is consistent with the approach that we used for simulation PRP18a. For the point fire 

category we updated the VISTAS data to a new 2002 inventory and corrected errors in the application of 

speciation profiles to the fires in the CENRAP region. We also incorporated new anthropogenic and natural 

ammonia inventories for CENRAP in simulation Plan02d. In addition to these updates and corrections to 

sources in the continental U.S., we also updated the offshore, Canadian, and Mexican emissions in simulation 

Plan02d. 

We added a new source in commercial shipping lane emissions in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean 

and updated the Mexico and Canadian inventories in simulation Plan02d. We received a new gridded 

commercial shipping inventory that contained emissions for the Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Atlantic. We 

discarded the Pacific shipping lane emissions in this new inventory and combined the Pacific shipping lane 

emissions that we used in simulation PRP18a with the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic emissions from the new 

inventory. With the addition of the shipping lane inventory for the Gulf of Mexico, we modified the offshore 

area source inventory for this region by removing the shipping sources to keep from double counting these 

emissions. The area source Gulf of Mexico offshore shopping inventory is an updated version of these data 

from the Minerals Management Service; the Gulf of Mexico point source inventories remained unchanged. We 

also removed some shipping sources from the Canadian inventory to keep from double counting the offshore 

shipping emissions in the Pacific and Atlantic. Finally we used updated Phase III 1999 Mexican inventories that 

covered the entire country for all emissions sectors. Along with the updated inventories we used revised spatial 

surrogates developed from Shapefiles provided by Mexico’s Instituto Nacional de Ecología. We prepared the 

fugitive dust inventories for Canada and Mexico through the application of revised PM10/PM2.5 ratios and 

vegetative scavenging reduction factors in a manner consistent with the U.S. inventories. As the Phase III 

Mexican inventory did not contain road dust estimates, we used the same Mexican road dust inventory that we 

used in all previous modeling runs. The rest of the sources for Mexico and Canada, as well as the domain-wide 

biogenic emissions did not change in simulation Plan02a. 

A complete record of the quality assurance process for simulation Plan02d and a description of the differences 

in the results of Plan02d relative to Plan02c and PRP18a are documented in 

http://bugz.unc.edu/show_bug.cgi?id=2433. 

Overall the WRAP emissions on an annual basis (annual totals for all WRAP states) decreased for PM10, PM2.5, 

PMC, SO2, and VOC and increased for NOx, NH3, and CO for simulation Plan02d relative to simulation 

Plan02c. The most significant change in the PM emissions was a shift in the size distribution of point source 

emissions from the course to the fine mode, with a 17,752 ton/yr reduction in PMC being offset by a 14,458 
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ton/yr increase in PM2.5. The decreases in area source PM emissions were offset by the increase in fugitive dust 

PM emissions, the result of the expanded list of fugitive dust sources. The NOx emissions increases in 

simulation Plan02d relative to Plan02c were driven by sizeable emissions increases in the California on-road 

and non-road mobile inventories. The stationary area, point, and oil and gas sectors exhibited offsetting NOx

decreases in comparing the Plan02d and Plan02c simulations, but the combined decreases were smaller than the 

increases in California mobile NOx emissions. The SO2 reductions in simulation Plan02d relative to Plan02c 

were driven by combined reductions in the stationary area, point, non-road mobile, and oil and gas sectors. An 

8.3% increase in NH3 emissions from on-road mobile sources in California was offset by smaller decreases in 

the stationary area, point, and non-road mobile sectors. The stationary area sector contributed the largest VOC 

reductions, while the oil and gas sector experienced the largest VOC increases. The combined changes in VOC 

emissions amounted to less than a 0.1% in the overall WRAP VOC emissions. A large relative CO increase in 

the oil and gas sector (275%) relative to simulation Plan02c was still quite small compared to the an increase in 

CO emissions from on-road mobile sources in California. Overall the CO emissions for simulation Plan02d 

increased only 0.1% relative to simulation Plan02c. 

Compared to simulation PRP18a, the Plan02d WRAP emissions decreased for PM2.5, PMC, PM10, NH3, and 

VOC and increased for and NOx, SO2, and CO. The PM reductions were driven by the fugitive and road dust 

sectors. The NOx emissions increased as a result of the on-road mobile, non-road mobile, and stationary point 

sectors. These increases were offset slightly by NOx decreases in the stationary area and oil and gas sectors. The 

SO2 increases were driven by stationary point, on-road mobile, and non-road mobile sectors. A large CO 

increase in the on-road mobile sector was offset by decreases in the stationary area, stationary point, non-road 

mobile, and oil and gas sectors. Decreases in NH3 emissions were driven by the on-road mobile and stationary 

point sectors. Large decreases in VOC emissions from the oil and gas and stationary area sectors were offset by 

smaller increases in the on-road and non-road mobile sectors. 

Visibility Modeling Results 

The Plan02d case was the fourth and final iteration in the 2002 Planning Case typical-year emissions scenario. 

The objective of this model simulation is to compare modeled visibility with the PRP18a case and other future 

control strategies or sensitivity scenarios to evaluate the Uniform Rate of Progress (URP) at WRAP Class I 

Areas. 

Relevant Output Products: 

 Relevant model output products include daily, seasonal and annual spatial distributions of Regional 

Haze contributing pollutants. 

 In this report, the annual average model simulated concentrations are presented below, along with the 

changes compared to the Plan02c simulation. 

 Results of this simulation will be compared with the PRP18a simulation in the report on the PRP18a 

results. 

 Comparisons with other simulations as appropriate. 

Spatial plots showing the effect of changes in emissions for Plan02d compared to Plan02c are available at the 

RMC webpage: www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#plan02dvsplan02c. Both yearly average and 

monthly average are available. Spatial plots showing the effect of changes in emissions for Plan02d compared 

to PRP18a are available at: 

www.cert.ucr.edu/aqm/308/cmaq.shtml#prp18avsplan02d. 

 
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Summary of Key Findings

 

The largest changes in SOx emissions in Plan02d compared to Plan02c were outside the WRAP region, and 

Figure 1 (top) shows that these emissions changes had small effects on modeled sulfate within the WRAP 

states, although there were local areas in Wyoming with increase in sulfate. Annual average model 

concentrations of nitrate and ammonium increased in California by as much as 0.29 ug/m3 and 0.9 ug/m3, 

respectively. The Plan02 modeled concentrations of elemental and organic carbon and coarse mass mostly 

decreases compared to Plan02c, especially in the Pacific Northwest, although there were some areas were 

concentration increased in Plan02. 

The key findings for this simulation are the comparison to the Preliminary Reasonable Progress Version A 

(PRP18a) model simulation, and these are discussed in detail in the Run Specification Sheet for the PRP18a 

case available on the RMC webpage. 
Figure 1. Left panel shows annual average sulfate (top) and nitrate (bottom) CMAQ simulated concentrations 

for PRP18a. Right panel shows the change in concentration for PRP18a minus Plan02d. 

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Figure 2. Left panel shows annual average ammonium (top) and ozone (bottom) CMAQ simulated 

concentrations for PRP18a. Right panel shows the change in concentration for PRP18a minus Plan02d. 

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Figure 3. Left panel shows annual average elemental carbon (top) and organic carbon (bottom) CMAQ 

simulated concentrations for PRP18a. Right panel shows the change in concentration for PRP18a minus 

Plan02d. 

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Figure 4. Left panel shows annual average coarse matter (top) and total PM2.5 (bottom) CMAQ simulated 

concentrations for PRP18a. Right panel shows the change in concentration for PRP18a minus Plan02d. 

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