OCS Study 

MMS 96-0067 

Coastal Marine Institute 

Numerical Simulation of 

Gulf of Mexico Circulation under 

Present and Glacial Climatic Conditions 

U.S . Department of the Interior 

Minerals anagement Service 

Gulf of Mexico OCS Region 
OCS Study 

MMS 96-0067 

Coastal Marine Institute 

Numerical Simulation of 

Gulf of Mexico Circulation under 

Present and Glacial Climatic Conditions 

Authors 

Masamichi tnoue 

Susan E . Welsh 

Prepared under MMS Contract 

14-35-0001-30660-19908 

by 

Coastal Marine Institute 

Louisiana State University 

Baton Rouge, Louisiana 70803 

Published by 

U.S. Department of the Interior 

Minerals Management Service New Orleans 

Gulf of Mexico OCS Region March 1997 
111 

DISCLAIMER 

This report was prepared under contract between the Minerals Management 

Service (MMS) and Louisiana State University . This report has been technically 

reviewed by the MMS and approved for publication. Approval does not signify that the 

contents necessarily reflect the view and policies of the Service nor does mention of trade 

names or commercial products constitute endorsement or recommendation for use . It is, 

however, exempt from review and compliance with MMS editorial standards. 

REPORT AVAILABILITY 

Extra copies of the report may be obtained from the Public Information Office 

(MS 5034) at the following address : 

U.S . Department of the Interior 

Minerals Management Service 

Gulf of Mexico OCS Region 

Public Information Office (MS 5034) 

1201 Elmwood Park Boulevard 

New Orleans, Louisiana 70123-2394 

Telephone Number: (504) 736-2519 

1-800-200-GULF 

CITATION 

Suggested citation : 

Inoue, M. and S.E. Welsh. 1996 . Numerical simulation of Gulf of Mexico circulation 

under present and glacial climatic conditions . OCS Study MMS 96-0067. U.S . Dept. 

of the Interior, Minerals Management Service, Gulf of Mexico OCS Region, New 

Orleans, La. 146 pp . 
V 

PREFACE 

Recent increasing level of activity associated with offshore oil and gas exploration 

and production in the outer continental shelf and slope regions of the Gulf of Mexico 

(GOM) calls for a better understanding of the ocean environment and the need to assess 

various potential environmental effects of those activities . The MMS's interests in those 

regions resulted in the recently-funded oceanographic research programs specifically 

focused on those areas. This study represents one of those programs. 

The usefulness of numerical models to simulate ocean circulation has been 

recognized by paleoceanographers, and paleoceanographic modeling has become an 

important tool in understanding the past oceanographic conditions. Numerical models 

offer means to test and verify various hypotheses concerning the past oceanographic 

conditions. This is necessary in order to arrive at the most plausible scenario. 

Paleoceanography based on planktonic foraminiferal assemblages, oxygen isotopes and 

sedimentary geology has helped in determining some of the characteristics of the past 

oceanographic conditions . However, paleoceanographic modeling of the GOM has not 

been attempted to take advantage of the usefulness of the numerical models to test and 

verify various hypotheses. Circulation in the Gulf during the last glacial period is of 

great interest not only to paleoceanographers but also to the oil and gas industry. As 

exploration moves to the shelf edge and beyond, instability hazards posed by late 

Wisconsin deltas, as well as older deposits, must be understood. This has a strong 

relevance to the late Quaternary shelf-margin deltas which are primary indicators of the 

position of ancient shelf margins, and are important for predicting sand occurrence in that 

environment as well as farther downslope. 

In this project, we study circulation in the GOM under present and glacial climatic 

conditions by modeling not only the entire GOM but also a portion of the North Atlantic 

and the northwestern corner of the Caribbean. The first objective of this study is to 

examine the present circulation of the GOM. Then this model will be used to study the 

ocean circulation in the GOM during the last glacial period, for which a significant 

amount of supporting data is available. The objectives will be to study the effects of the 

atmospheric conditions and sea-level changes during the last lowstand of sea level on the 

general circulation in the Gulf with an emphasis on the Loop Current dynamics and the 

shelf-slope interaction. 

This study consitutes the Ph. D. dissertation research of Susan E. Welsh, who was 

awarded a Ph. D. degree in the Department of Geology & Geophysics at the Louisiana 

State University in August 1996. 
vii 

ABSTRACT 

The Gulf of Mexico is an ideal location for paleoceanographic study using a 

three-dimensional ocean circulation model because of the availability of data to verify the 

model for the present. A description of the Gulf of Mexico circulation during the last 

glacial maximum is beneficial in interpreting the distribution of glacial fauna and adds to 

the understanding of global climate change because the Gulf of Mexico is an important 

link in the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. The Florida Current originates in the Gulf of 

Mexico and contributes warm, salty water to the Gulf Stream. The Gulf Stream 

influences the climate of the North Atlantic and is a factor in the production of North 

Atlantic Deep Water, thus contributing to the global thermohaline circulation. 

The Modular Ocean Model is used with fine horizontal grid resolution to be truly 

eddy-resolving and with a high number of vertical levels to resolve the bottom 

topography. A unique method of forcing the inflow through the Yucatan Channel is 

developed that results in a realistic annual cycle in the volume transport and baroclinic 

shear of the Loop Current. Seasonally varying wind forcing and surface relaxation 

toward observed temperature and salinity fields are implemented. The present-day 

seasonal simulations were able to realistically reproduce many of the observed features of 

the general circulation as well as the formation, migration, and decay of Loop Current 

rings. The model deep circulation is dominated by large cyclones that are associated with 

the upper layer Loop Current rings. 

The model grid was then configured to represent the lowstand in sea level at 

18,000 years before present and the model was forced with glacial estimates of wind 

stress and surface temperature. The response of the model to different inflow conditions 

through the Yucatan Channel was tested . Volume transport of the Florida Current during 

the last glacial maximum that is lower than present is supported by glacial estimates of 

the volume transport of the North Atlantic gyre and by the results of a global ocean 

circulation model for the last glacial maximum. 
1X 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

PAGE 

LIST OF FIGURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi 

LIST OF TABLES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xvii 

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xix 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxi 

CHAPTER 

1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 

2 MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND VERIFICATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 

2 .1 Model Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 

2 .2 Model Simulations with Annual Mean Forcing . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 

3 PRESENT-DAY SIMULATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 

3 .1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 

3 .2 Model Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 

3 .3 General Circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 

3 .4 Loop Current Rings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 

3 .5 The Deep Circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 

4 LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM SIMULATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 

4 .1 Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 

4 .2 Model Description . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 

4.2 .1 Model Grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 

4.2 .2 Wind Forcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 

4.2 .3 Sea-Surface Temperature . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 

4.2 .4 Geostrophic Forcing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98 

4.3 High-Volume Transport Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 

4.3 .1 Loop Current Rings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99 

4.3 .2 General Circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 

4.4 Low-Volume Transport Case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 

4.4 .1 Loop Current Rings . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115 

4.4 .2 General Circulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 

4.5 Discussion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 
X 

PAGE 

CHAPTER 

5 SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 

5 .1 Present-Day Model Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 133 

5 .2 Last Glacial Maximum Model Simulation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134 

5 .3 Future Work . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 

APPENDICES 

A NUMERICAL MODEL FORMULATION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 

B MINIMUM INFLOW CONDITION FOR THE LGM 

SIMULATIONS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 
X1 

LIST OF FIGURES 

FIGURE PAGE 

1 The Gulf of Mexico model domain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 

2 The present-day simulation model grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 

3 Level 1 (37 .5 m) temperature (°C) and velocity (cm s') fields for 

the annual-mean forcing case with high viscosity (200 mZ s-') and 

diffusivity (100 mz s-') at model week 252 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 

4 Level 1 (37.5 m) temperature (°C) and velocity (cm s') fields for 

the annual-mean forcing case with low viscosity (75 M2 s-') and 

diffusivity (75 m2 s') at model week 252 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 

5 Time series of volume transport stream function (Sv) in the Florida 

Straits for the present-day seasonal forcing case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 

6 Four-year averages of the level 1 (37 .5 m) temperature field in the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing case 

for (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, and (d) Fall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 

7 Observed sea-surface temperature (°C) north of the Yucatan 

Peninsula during (a) May 14-20, 1969 and (b) September 8-21, 

1969 (from Ruiz Renteria 1979) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 

8 West-east vertical profiles of (a) temperature and (b) salinity for 

the present-day seasonal forcing case at model day 3240 (May) . . . . . . . . . . 24 

9 Contours of the average field of EOF mode 1 dynamic height 

(dyn cm) of the sea surface relative to 425 db (from Vazquez 

de la Cerda 1993) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 

10 Four-year averages of level 1 (37 .5 m) temperature and velocity 

fields in the western Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal 

forcing case in (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer and (d) Fall . . . . . . . . . . . 27 

11 Four-year averages of level 1 (37 .5 m) velocity magnitudes in 

the northwest Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing 

case for (a) Winter, (b) Spring, (c) Summer, and (d) Fall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 
X11 

FIGURE PACE 

12 Sequence of level 1 (37 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields 

in the eastern Gulf of Mexico at model days (a) 192, (b) 216, 

(c) 240, (d) 264, and (e) 288 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 

13 (a) Vertical cross-section of temperature through a ring and the 

Loop Current from the present-day seasonally forced model at day 

2250 (February) and (b) vertical temperature (°C) section through 

a ring and the the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico collected by 

the Nordic Wasa on January 7-8, 1984 (from SAIC 1986) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 

14 Vertical cross-section of salinity through a ring and the Loop 

Current from the present-day seasonal forcing model at model 

day 2250 (February) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 

15 Migration paths of 8 Loop Current rings generated in a 5-year 

simulation using the present-day seasonally forced model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 

16 Level 3 (187 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model at days (a) 120, (b) 144, 

(c) 168, (d) 192, (e) 216, and (f) 240 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 

17 Level 3 (187 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model at days (a) 432, (b) 456, 

(c) 480, (d) 504 and (e) 528 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 

18 Characteristic paths of warm rings in the western Gulf of Mexico 

and the position of warm ring centers obtained using GOES 

and NOAA satellite data for the periods of 1973-1984 (from 

Vukovich and Crissman 1986) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 

19 Temperature contours (°C) and velocity vectors (cm s') for the 

present-day seasonally forced model at day 2250 at (a) 37 .5 m, 

(b) 187 .5 m, (c) 1050 m, (d) 1350 m, and (e) 3450 m . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 

20 Seven-DLP stick vectors for the central Gulf of Mexico at 

1650 m and 2500 m (from Hamilton 1990) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 

21 Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model at days (a) 2040, (b) 2070, and (c) 2100 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 
X111 

FIGURE PAGE 

22 Seven-DLP stick vectors from Mooring G in the Gulf of 

Mexico at 1565 m, 2364 m, and 3174 m (from Hamilton 1990) . . . . . . . . . . . 72 

23 Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

central Gulf of Mexico far the present-day seasonally forced 

model at days (a) 2130, (b) 2160, (c) 2190, and (d) 2220 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73 

24 Model migration paths and days of observations for surface 

anticyclones 'A' and deep cyclones 'C' for rings (a) S 10, (b) S 11, 

(c)S12,and(d)513. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 

25 The last glacial maximum model grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 

26 Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) January wind stress field 

interpolated to 1/8° grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 

27 Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed using 

Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) January wind stress field . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 

28 Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) July wind stress field 

interpolated to 1/8° grid . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 

29 Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed 

using Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) July wind stress field . . . . . . . . . . . 88 

30 January wind stress for 18,000 years B.P. computed by Kutzbach 

and Guetter (1986) glacial atmospheric general circulation model . . . . . . . . 89 

31 Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed 

using Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) January glacial wind 

stress estimates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 

32 July wind stress for 18,000 years B.P. computed by Kutzbach 

and Guetter (1986) glacial atmospheric general circulation model . . . . . . . . 91 

33 Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed using 

Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) July glacial wind stress estimates . . . . . . . . . . 92 
XN 

FIGURE PACE 

34 Winter sea-surface temperature for the Gulf of Mexico from 

(a) Levitus seasonal mean climatology (1982) and (b) CLIMAP 

estimates (1976) for 18 years BY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94 

35 Summer sea-surface temperature for the Gulf of Mexico from 

(a) Levitus seasonal mean climatology (1982) and (b) CLIMAP 

estimates (1976) for 18 years BY . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 

36 Model migration paths of Loop Current rings H1-H6 during 

the four-year simulation of the LGM high transport case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 

37 Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM high 

transport case at model day 360 (November) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 103 

38 Vertical cross-section of salinity (ppt-35) from the LGM high 

transport case through (a) the Loop Current and ring H2 at model 

day 360 (November) and (b) ring H3 at model day 540 (May) . . . . . . . . . . 104 

39 Vertical cross-section of temperature (°C) from the LGM high 

transport case through ring H2 at day 360 (November) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106 

40 Level 1 (40 m) temperature field in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 

for the LGM high transport case at model day 630 (August) . . . . . . . . . . . . 107 

41 Time series of transport stream function (Sv) in the Florida 

Straits for the high transport case, model years 5-8 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 

42 Four-year average of level 1 (40 m) temperature (°C) and 

velocity (cm s') fields for the LGM high transport case in the 

western Gulf of Mexico during (a) Winter, (b) Spring, 

(c) Summer, and (d) Fall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 110 

43 Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM 

high transport case in the western Gulf of Mexico at model 

day 270 (August) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 

44 Time series of transport stream function (Sv) in the Florida 

Straits for the low transport case, model years 13-16 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 116 

45 Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM 

low transport case at model day 450 (February) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 
XV 

FIGURE PAGE 

46 Vertical cross-sections of (a) temperature and (b) salinity 

through ring L2 in the LGM low transport case at model day 

450 (February) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 119 

47 Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM 

low transport case in the eastern Gulf of Mexico at model day 

(a) 180 (May) and (b) 270 (August) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 

48 Sea-surface temperature (°C) for 18,000 years B.P. for (a) summer 

with an accuracy of f 1 .1 °C and (b) winter with an accuracy of 

X1 .3°C at an 80% confidence interval (from Brunner and Cooley 

1976) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 

49 Sea-surface salinity (ppt) for 18,000 years B.P. for (a) summer with 

an accuracy of X0.6%o and (b) winter with an accuracy of X0.5%0 

at an 80% confidence interval (from Brunner and Cooley 1976) . . . . . . . . . 124 

50 (a) Thickness (cm) of late Quaternary biostratigraphic zones Z, 

Y, and X, (b) areal distribution of the proportion of sand-size 

material in the Z, X and Y zones, and (c) accumulation rates 

(g/cm2/1000 yr) of silt and clay-size material in the Z, Y and X zones 

(from Brunner and Cooley 1976) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127 

51 Vertical profile of the annual average current speed (cm s') in 

the Florida Current at 82°W looking upstream for (a) year 10 of 

the present-day seasonally-forced simulation and (b) year 2 of 

the LGM low transport case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 

52 Sverdrup volume transport (Sv) for the North Atlantic computed 

using Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) wind stress field for 18,000 

years B.P . on a 7.5° longitude by 4 .4° latitude grid for (a) January 

and(b)July . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 
XVll 

LIST OF TABLES 

TALE PAGE 

1 Summary of all model simulations made in this study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 

2 Characteristics of model Loop Current rings for the present-day 

seasonal forcing case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 

3 Characteristics of model Loop Current rings for the LGM high 

transport case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 100 

4 Characteristics of model Loop Current rings for the LGM low 

transport case . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118 
X1X 

LIST OF ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 

The following acronyms may be used throughout this report : 

AVHRR Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer 

B.P. before present 

ka kiloannum or thousands of years before present 

CLIMAP Climate Long-Range Prediction and Mapping Project 

GOM Gulf of Mexico 

LC Loop Current 

LGM last glacial maximum 

NADW North Atlantic deep water 

R surface relaxation parameter 

SC shelfbreak current 

SST sea-surface temperature 

Sv sverdrup 

WBC western boundary current 
XXl 

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 

We would like to thank the Coastal Marine Institute at LSU that is funded by the 

Minerals Management Service for providing the necessary support of this project. We 

would also like to thank the Louisiana State University Board of Regents for providing 

the Graduate Fellowship for S. Welsh during the first four years of her Ph. D. program 

and the System Network Computing Center for the free usage of the IBM 3090 . Our 

gratitude goes to Dr. Kutzbach at the University of Wisconsin for providing wind data for 

the last glacial maximum. 

We would like to acknowledge all members of S . Welsh's graduate committee for 

their expertise on each of the different facets of the research: Dr. Sen Gupta in paleoceanography ; Dr. William Wiseman in physical oceanography ; Dr. Lui Chan in 

chemical oceanography ; Dr. S.A. Hsu in meteorology and Dr. Greg Stone in geography, 

and for their helpful comments on the dissertation . In this study we made an extensive 

use of a computer animation software produced by Mr. Lingsong Bi . Our acknowledgments are extended to Dr. Tony Sturges, the staff of the Dept. of Geology and Geophysics 

and of the Coastal Studies Institute, in particular Mr. David Wilensky. 
1 

CHAPTER 1 

INTRODUCTION 

Presently there is much interest in the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic 

Ocean during the last glacial maximum (LGM), approximately 18,000 years before 

present (B .P .) . The main focus of these studies has been to determine the volume flux of 

glacial North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), which may reflect changes in the intensity 

of the oceanic circulation (LeGrand and Wunsch 1995). This is part of an effort to piece 

together the past global circulation and understand the ocean-atmosphere response 

mechanisms to global climate change. Numerical models are useful in describing past 

environments by combining what we know about present-day environmental processes 

with data from the geologic record, which is incomplete and not a direct measurement of 

the ocean circulation . Although numerical models have been used to study the North 

Atlantic circulation during the LGM, the grid resolution has been too coarse to resolve 

the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) (Lautenschlager et al. 1992) or did not 

extend into the GOM (LeGrand and Wunsch 1995). The GOM is an important link in the 

circulation of the North Atlantic gyre because the Gulf Stream derives the bulk of its 

warm, salty water from the Florida Current, which flows from the GOM into the North 

Atlantic through the Florida Straits . Consequently the volume transport and source 

waters of the Florida Current can influence the climate and general circulation of the 

North Atlantic. 

The research presented here uses present-day boundary conditions to first develop 

and verify a primitive-equation numerical ocean model of the GOM. Some 

improvements of this study over other GOM modeling efforts are the eddy-resolving 

capability of the model, small grid size in the vertical and horizontal, low values for 

viscosity and diffusivity, and seasonal forcing. This present-day model can realistically 

simulate the upper-layer seasonal circulation in the GOM, the ring separation process of 

the Loop Current (LC), and LC ring characteristics . Detailed analysis of the lower layer 

temperature and velocity fields has also provided new insight into the deep circulation of 

the GOM. 

The model is then used to simulate the paleocirculation of the GOM during the 

LGM by adjusting the grid to represent the lowstand in sea level and applying boundary 

conditions for 18,000 years B.P . The goals of the LGM simulations are to test 

hypotheses regarding the volume transport into the GOM during the LGM and help 

interpret the distribution of glacial fauna in the western GOM. An application of the 

LGM model results is to estimate coastal currents during the lowstand in sea level when 

rivers deposited sediment directly on the outer shelf and slope (Morton and Price 1987), 

which is a factor in finding mineral resources. Another reason to describe the 

paleoceanographic conditions in the GOM is to provide information regarding the climate 

over the North American continent during the LGM because the warm surface waters of 

the GOM are an active region for cyclogenesis to occur (Hsu 1988). 
2 

The use of numerical models to study the present ocean circulation has increased 

in recent years and has contributed significantly to our understanding of various ocean 

processes. Numerical models also help in the design and interpretation of observational 

studies which are limited in either spatial resolution or geographic extent as well as 

temporal resolution or length of record . Once the model has been tested and validated, 

the output can be sampled and analyzed with a high degree of resolution to help interpret 

observations or develop further sampling strategies . In addition, the verified model can 

be used to study the response of the study area to different environmental conditions . 

Several numerical modeling studies have been made of the GOM using presentday environmental conditions. The two-layer model of H. Hurlburt and J.D. Thompson 

(1980) at the Naval Oceanographic Research and Development Activity (NORDA) has 

been useful in understanding LC ring separation dynamics. A major disadvantage of 

these models is their inability to adequately resolve bottom topography. The new 

generation of three-dimensional, primitive-equation, ocean circulation models allows for 

enhanced vertical and horizontal resolution, but also requires more powerful, high-speed 

computers (Cox 1984; Blumberg and Mellor 1987; Haidvogel et al. 1991). The Princeton 

model (Blumberg and Mellor 1987) has been useful in the study of GOM circulation (e .g . 

Oey 1995) . 

The GOM is an ideal basin for study using an eddy-resolving model due to the 

limited size of the domain and the dominance of the LC and rings shed by the LC . 

Sturges et al . (1993) used the Bryan-Cox model (Cox 1984) to study the GOM on a'/4-

degree grid with 12 vertical levels that also included the entire Caribbean and adjacent 

portions of the North Atlantic Ocean to force the flow through the Caribbean with a 

volume transport equal to the wind-driven transport of the North Atlantic Gyre. 

Although the model was able to reproduce some of the observed features of the LC and 

associated anticyclonic rings, the maximum transport through the Florida Straits was only 

18 Sv (1 Sverdrup = 106 m3~s-') compared to the 30 Sv that is observed. The difference 

can be accounted for by the Schmitz et al . (1992) estimate that the wind-driven 

component of the Florida Current represents only 55% of the total volume transport. 

The eddy-resolving numerical model of the GOM by Dietrich and Lin (1995) also 

extends outside of the GOM into the western Caribbean where the inflow is prescribed as 

a western boundary current with a fixed volume transport of 25 Sv. The horizontal grid 

resolution is 20 km and there are 16 levels in the vertical . The model does not include 

surface forcing or salinity effects . Many of the ring characteristics were close to the 

observed averages, such as swirl speed, westward migration speed, and period of ring 

separation. Although a goal of the Dietrich and Lin (1995) model was to describe the 

vertical structure of rings during the ring separation cycle, the vertical temperature 

distributions of the model rings and the ambient fluid are distinctly different from 

observations . 

This modeling project features essentially the same model as Sturges et al . (1993), 

but with a reduced horizontal domain that permits doubling the horizontal grid resolution 

to 1/8' (13 km). Resolution of the eddy dynamics is essential in the GOM, where 

anticyclonic rings shed from the LC carry heat and momentum to the western GOM, 
3 

thereby coupling the eastern and western basins and influencing the heat and salt budgets 

of the GOM (Elliot 1982). Rings also impact the local surface current patterns, climate 

and biological productivity . The length scale of the rings is determined by the Rossby 

radius of deformation, which is approximately 30-40 km for the first baroclinic mode 

(Emery et al . 1984). A minimum of two grid boxes is necessary per radius of 

deformation in order to simulate realistic rings, which will be satisfied on an 1/8-degree 

grid. In this study, the term 'rings' will always be used when referring to the anticyclonic, 

warm-core rings shed by the LC, and 'eddies' applies to any other cyclonic or anticyclonic 

circulation features. 

The verification of numerical models in the GOM has been possible because of 

the tremendous amount of observational data that is available and a small number of other 

modeling studies. Surface drifters (Lewis and Kirwan 1987), Advanced Very High 

Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data (Vukovich 1995) and NOAA satellite infrared 

images (Vukovich and Crissman 1986) have been used to study the dynamics and 

periodicity of the ring separation cycle. The structure and westward migration of the 

rings (Elliot 1982; Vukovich and Crissman 1986) and the interaction of the rings with 

the western wall of the GOM (Vidal et al . 1992 ; Indest 1992; Brooks 1984) have been 

described from hydrographic surveys, satellite images and drifters. Current meters and 

hydrographic surveys have been used to determine the general circulation (Molinari et al . 

1978) and the deep flow in the GOM (Hamilton 1990). 

Not all paleoceanographic modeling studies have included the model calibration 

phase using present-day conditions, which is difficult when there are large changes in the 

basin shape and size, as well as climate. Some modeling studies which were mainly used 

for hypothesis testing are the model simulation of the Cretaceous by Barron (1989) and 

the ocean circulation model for Pangaean time by Kutzbach et al . (1990) . A more recent 

modeling study of the mid-Cretaceous ocean circulation by Barron and Peterson (1990) 

used an adaptation by Semtner (1974) of the model code by Bryan (1969), which is the 

same model used in this study. The model had been tested using present-day conditions, 

and then a present-day control simulation was made with the model code adapted for the 

Cretaceous experiments (Baryon and Peterson 1990) . The paleoceanographic model was 

then used for sensitivity studies to determine the importance of bathymetry of the ocean 

basins, air temperature, and the affect of changing wind stress by varying continental 

elevation (Baryon and Peterson 1990). 

Paleoceanographic models that focus on the LGM are not subject to changes in 

continental locations, and are more conducive to verification using paleontological and 

sedimentological data. A numerical model used in the study of the Indian Ocean during 

glacial and interglacial conditions (Luther et al . 1990 ; Prell et al . 1990) was not only 

extensively tested for the present (Luther and O'Brien 1985), but model results for the 

interglacial conditions were verified by comparison with the distribution of planktonic 

foraminifera and estimated sea-surface temperature (SST) (Prell et al . 1990) . 

Lautenschlager et al . (1992) constructed a global ocean general circulation model 

for the LGM to test the ocean's response to forcing by glacial estimates of wind stress and 

fresh water flux computed using the atmospheric general circulation model of Kutzbach 
4 

and Guetter (1986). Testing and verification of the ocean model was reported in a 

previous paper (Maier-Reimer et al . 1991) and a 750-year model simulation was 

performed as a present-day control experiment for comparison with the LGM simulations 

(Lautenschlager et al . 1992). Model simulated SST was compared to LGM estimates and 

model distributions of Cd/Ca and S '3C were compared with data from deep-sea sediment 

cores . Although the model predicts intensification of Atlantic equatorial currents in 

response to stronger trade winds in the Atlantic (Prell et al . 1976), the westward flow in 

the Caribbean is reduced and the intensity of the Brazil Current is increased 

(Lautenschlager et al . 1992) . The model resolution is too coarse to resolve the circulation 

in the GOM, but the results for the LGM circulation study indicate a decrease in the 

inflow to the GOM from the Caribbean (Lautenschlager et al . 1992). This particular 

result had a large impact on the way in which the inflow into the GOM was prescribed in 

this modeling study. 

In this study the glacial-period simulations are made in exactly the same way as 

the present day, except with lowered sea level and with surface boundary conditions that 

reflect the climate of the LGM. The SST field is restored to Climate : Long-Range 

Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) data (CLIMAP Project Members 

1981) and the wind stress estimates are from the glacial atmospheric general circulation 

model of Kutzbach and Guetter (1986). Paleontological and sedimentological data for 

the GOM are used to estimate the validity of the LGM model simulations . The 

circulation of the upper layers is compared to the circulation inferred from the estimates 

of glacial temperature and salinity patterns made by Brunner and Cooley (1976). Vertical 

profiles of model velocity through the Florida Straits for the present and LGM 

simulations are compared to determine the likelihood of stronger bottom currents in the 

Florida Straits during the LGM as suggested by Brunner (1986). 

The research presented in this report is divided into two phases which have rather 

different purposes. The present-day simulations of the GOM will be of value to the GOM 

modeling community due to the realistic ring separation from the LC, the westward 

migration and decay of the rings, the seasonal cycle in the general circulation and new 

findings regarding the deep circulation in the GOM. Also the present-day model 

verification is necessary as a control run for modeling the LGM environment. The 

objectives of the paleoceanographic model simulations are to help interpret 

paleontological and sedimentological data from the geologic record, describe the 

circulation of the GOM during the LGM and test hypotheses regarding the volume 

transport of the Florida Current. The latter goal is important in describing the glacial 

climate and changes in the thermohaline circulation of the Atlantic Ocean. 

The numerical model history and configuration, the model development under 

annual mean forcing conditions, and results of the annual mean forcing case are described 

in Chapter 2. The model configuration, initial conditions, and model forcing for the 

present-day, seasonally-forced simulations are discussed in Chapter 3 . The results of the 

seasonal-forcing case and the model-data comparisons for the seasonal-forcing case are 

also presented in Chapter 3 . A discussion of the sea level lowstand during the LGM, and 

comparisons of the SST and wind stress fields over the GOM for the present-day and 
5 

LGM are presented in Chapter 4. The LGM model configuration, initial conditions, 

model forcing, model results and model-data comparisons are presented in Chapter 4. 

For reference, a summary of all model simulations covered in Chapters 2 through 4 is 

provided in Table l . The project summary and conclusions are presented in Chapter 5 . 

Details of the numerical model formulation are presented in Appendix A and an 

explanation of how the forcing for the LGM simulations was determined is presented in 

Appendix B . 
6 

Table 1 . Summary of all model simulations made in this study. 

Type of Simulation 

Length of Simulation 

weeks (years) Rings 

Present-day annual mean forcing 

High friction ' 

Spin-up 156 (3 .0) 

Production run 156 (3 .0) 10 

Parameter test with R=12 Z 96 (1 .8) 3 

Production run 60 (1 .2) 2 

Low friction 3 

Production run 120 (2.3) 4 

Total (11 .3) 

Present-day seasonal forcing 

Spin-up 154 (3 .0) 

Production run (upper layer study) 257 (5 .0) SO-S9 

Production run (deep layer study) 206 (3 .0) S9-S 13 

Total (11 .0) 

LGM high transport case 

Spin-up 206 (4 .0) 

Production run 206 (4 .0) HO-HS 

Total (8 .0) 

LGM low transport case 

Spin-up 206 (4.0) 

Production run 206 (4.0) LO-LS 

Total (8 .0) 

coefficients of viscosity and diffusivity are 200 mZ s' and 100 mZ s', respectively . 

2 R denotes relaxation time scale in weeks for surface boundary conditions. All 

model simulations used R=6 except the single case with R=12. 

3 coefficients of viscosity and diffusivity are 75 mz s' and 75 mz s-', respectively . 
CHAPTER 2 

MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND VERIFICATION 

2.1 Model Description 

The bathymetry of the GOM features several broad, gently sloping shelves, steep 

escarpments and relatively shallow sill depths in the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits 

(Figure 1) . The circulation in the GOM is dominated by the presence of the LC and the 

anti-cyclonic rings that are shed from the LC . The Modular Ocean Model (Pacanowski et 

al. 1991) is a three-dimensional primitive equation model that is able to simulate the 

effects of bottom topography as well as resolve eddy dynamics on a small enough grid, 

both of which are important in the GOM. The Modular Ocean Model directly evolved 

from the Bryan-Cox numerical ocean model (Bryan 1969; Cox 1984 ; Semtner 1986a,b). 

Modular Ocean Model version 1 .1, released in 1993, was used in this study. Details of 

the model physics and numerical formulation are presented in Appendix A. 

The structure and transport of the flow into the GOM through the Yucatan 

Channel are very important for realistic simulation of the LC. In order to keep the size of 

the model domain limited and achieve a realistic inflow condition, this model domain 

extends outside the GOM into a synthetic return flow region that links the Straits of 

Florida with the western Caribbean (Figure 2). The bathymetry in the return flow region 

was altered and smoothed to allow flow exiting the GOM to recirculate around Cuba and 

enter the GOM through the western Caribbean . Flow through the western Caribbean was 

forced to acquire the observed shear and geostrophic transport of the Caribbean Current 

along a north-south transect at 82.375°W. West of the geostrophic forcing region the 

flow could adjust naturally to the bathymetry and local wind forcing, which resulted in a 

realistic inflow condition through the Yucatan Channel. This method of forcing the 

inflow eliminated the need to include the entire North Atlantic, which can be very costly 

in terms of computer resources, especially for a small grid-size and high vertical 

resolution. Another benefit of allowing the flow to recirculate was to avoid the 

difficulties in implementing open boundaries, while allowing the model to pick the 

natural inflow conditions through the Yucatan Channel. 

The model grid was derived from the ETOPOS, 1/12°-resolution, world 

topography data set available from the National Ocean Data Center . The bathymetric 

values were interpolated to '/a° and then smoothed using three passes of a double Harming 

filter to prevent topographically-induced instabilities in the numerical solution. The 

model domain extends from 97.75°W to 72 .875°W and from 16.0°N to 30.875°N and has 

lateral dimensions of 200 by 120. There are 15 levels in the vertical with a maximum 

depth of 3600 m, which is approximately the deepest isobath in the GOM. It is preferable 

to use evenly-spaced levels in the vertical to reduce error in the finite difference 

formulation of the vertical velocity. Also it is desirable to have greater resolution near 

the surface for more accurate representation of the shelf bathymetry and to resolve the 

thermocline. Therefore, bimodal spacing of the vertical levels was chosen such that the 
8 

Louisiana 

30N ;r---='-t ' M 

Texas n .c. 

124 ` i`, ~N. 

C k ~ ~ `, r 

I 

" 3150 N.P.C . 

D.7. a 

Southern ~ 

9traila of Rosidi~~ /~/' 

- - _.. ....~.. ., ~ ~ ~ ~Cr 

20N -

Cam~eche Basin 1 Yucatan 

t ~Peainaula ' . 

-- . 

. 

9160. 

...

o 

.. ... ..... 

.. .. . 

Mexico j 

t t 

sow Bow 

Figure 1 . The Gulf of Mexico model domain. Depth contours in meters . 

stippled line represents observed coastline and geographic 

boundaries. 
9 

Figure 2 . The present-day simulation model grid. Solid lines represent 

model grid levels . Stippled line represents observed coastline 

and geographic boundaries 
10 

thickness of each of the upper four levels is 75 m and the lower 11 levels are each 300-m 

thick. 

The three-dimensional annual mean temperature and salinity fields used to 

initialize the annual-mean forcing case were derived from the Levitus Climatological 

Atlas of the World Ocean (Levitus 1982) . The original data is available on a 1 ° 

horizontal grid with 33 levels in the vertical . The vertical interpolation of the 

hydrographic data to model depths was performed using a cubic spline algorithm from 

IMSL (1989) and then an IMSL two-dimensional quadratic spline algorithm was used to 

interpolate laterally to 1/s° . 

Level 1 (vertically centered at a depth of 37 .5 m) temperature and salinity were 

restored to climatological means to prevent a drift. This surface boundary condition 

allows for surface heat and moisture fluxes, which should be close to real surface fluxes . 

A parameter study was performed to determine the optimum value for the surface 

relaxation time scale, R, for Newtonian restoration of the temperature and salinity fields . 

An initial value of R=6 weeks was used, which is common in this type of model (Sturges 

et al . 1993) and produced level 1 temperature and salinity fields that were in good 

agreement with the Levitus climatology. It is noted that R=6 weeks is close to the range 

of 25-40 days computed from observed climatology (Han 1984; Hirst and Godfrey 1993). 

The simulation was repeated with R=3 weeks, but it was immediately obvious that this 

value prevented the surface fields from evolving freely . Parallel 96-week simulations 

were made with values of R=6 weeks and R=12 weeks for comparison. Although the 

circulation at level 1 was essentially identical after 96 weeks for the two cases, the 

northern section of the GOM was gaining heat and the southern portions of the model 

were losing heat in the R=12 weeks case . Therefore the choice of R=6 weeks was used 

for all simulations. 

The surface wind stress field was derived from the Hellerman and Rosenstein 

(1983) normal monthly wind stress climatology. The global monthly mean wind stress 

values on 2° grid were calculated from over 35 million surface wind speed observations 

from 1870 to 1976 (Hellerman and Rosenstein 1983). The conversion from wind speed 

to wind stress is made using a quadratic bulk aerodynamic formulation, 

IT I°PCo(u2+v2), 

where ~ -c I is the modulus of the wind stress vector, p is the air density, u and v are the 

eastward and northward components of the wind and Co is the non-dimensional drag 

coefficient based on wind speed and air temperature minus sea temperature (Hellerman 

and Rosenstein 1983) . The original wind stress field was interpolated to 1/8' using the 

IMSL (1989) two-dimensional tensor product spline interpolant algorithm . For the 

annual mean forcing case, an annual average of the wind stress was applied over the 

entire GOM and in the Caribbean to the west of the-geostrophic forcing region only. 

The volume flux through the Yucatan Channel was controlled by adding an equal 

value of u-component of velocity to each grid point in the north-south and vertical 

directions within a longitudinal band centered at 82.375°W in the Caribbean. The desired 
11 

vertical shear was achieved by relaxing the temperature and salinity along this same 

vertical cross section to the observed values . A parameter study was performed to find 

the best value for the relaxation time scale for Newtonian restoration of the temperature 

and salinity fields to observations . The model was run with several values for the 

relaxation time scale ranging from 30 min to 12 weeks . The optimum value for the 

relaxation time scale for restoration of the vertical profiles of temperature and salinity 

fields to produce realistic geostrophic flow through the western Caribbean was six weeks. 

The temperature and salinity fields used for this purpose were also derived from the 

Levitus climatology. 

Quadratic friction was implemented and the coefficients of horizontal viscosity 

and diffusivity were AM 200 M2-S-' and AH 100 mZ~s-', respectively, for the initial runs 

with annual mean forcing. A value of 1 X 10-4 m2~s~' was used for both vertical viscosity 

and diffusivity for all simulations. These values for friction were within the range of 

values used in previous modeling studies that focus on the dynamics of the LC and rings 

(Hurlburt and Thompson 1980; Sturges et al . 1993 ; Oey 1995). Bottom stress is applied 

with a drag coefficient of CD =.001 . A parameter study was made to determine the largest 

possible time step that would result in a stable numerical solution. A 30-min timestep is 

used for all simulations . 

There were several indicators used to determine the stability of the model. The 

total kinetic energy averaged over the basin was monitored to determine if the model 

fields have come to equilibrium or were 'spun-up' . Also it was necessary to determine if 

the model was losing heat or salt, which could be assessed by monitoring the basin 

average of the absolute change in temperature and salinity . The volume averages of these 

three variables were plotted against time to detect any trend in the mean. The model 

equilibrium was assessed by evaluating the time series of each of these variables . 

2 .2 Model Simulations with Annual Mean Forcing 

The first set of model simulations featured annual mean forcing and was 

necessary to determine model stability and to make adjustments to many of the model 

parameters and the method of forcing the inflow . Approximately three years of model 

integration were necessary for the annual-mean forcing model to become sufficiently 

spun-up . Then more than eight years of model integration were made for analysis, 

totalling more than 11 years of model integration with annual-mean forcing (refer to 

Table 1) . All model integrations were performed on an IBM 3090 with vector 

capabilities . The average cpu time per time step was 4.3 s resulting in 21 hr of cpu time 

per model year of simulation . 

This modeling study used a target value of 28 Sv to represent the annual mean 

volume transport through the southern Straits of Florida. This volume transport was 

based on time series of current meter measurements and cable-based transport 

measurements across each of the various channels that feed the Florida Current. SAIC 

(1992) estimated the annual mean transport through the Florida Straits at 27°N to be 31 .1 

Sv and the combined annual mean transport through the Old Bahama Channel and the 
12 

Northwest Providence Channel to be 2 .8 Sv. Subtracting the combined transports 

through the Old Bahama Channel and the Northwest Providence Channel from the 

transport at 27°N results in an annual mean transport through the southern Straits of 

Florida equal 28 .3 Sv. The widely accepted value for the transport of the Florida Current 

at 24°N is 30 Sv (Schmitz et al . 1992), which includes the 1 .9 Sv flowing through the Old 

Bahama Channel measured by SAIC (1992) . 

Rings in the model separated from the LC with a constant ring-separation period 

of 30 weeks. This was somewhat shorter than the primary mode of 8-9 months observed 

by Sturges (1994) and also less than the primary mode of 9 months observed by 

Vukovich (1995), but well within the observed range of 6-17 months (Vukovich 1995). 

Both Vukovich (1995) and Sturges (1994) reported a secondary mode of 13-14 months, 

which was not reproduced in the model. This secondary mode is presumably forced by 

factors that are not included in the model . 

The process of ring separation in the initial simulations using high values of 

viscosity and diffusivity was similar to that described by Sturges et al . (1993) : " . . .a long 

gradual, process involving recirculation between the ring and the main flow for many 

weeks" . The temperature and velocity fields of the LC and a ring during the separation 

are presented in Figure 3 . The average diameter of the rings using annual mean forcing 

and high friction (AM= 200 m'-s-' and AH= 100 m'-s-') was approximately 416 km in 

diameter with swirl speeds up to 40 cm-s-1 in the eastern GOM, decreasing to 20 cm-s-' 

after 180 days. All rings followed the same migration path from east to west and merged 

with the western boundary flow along the Mexico Slope. The rings took approximately 

270 days to reach the western slope. The rings were then advected into the northwestern 

corner where they would slowly decay until the next ring moved into the same location. 

The signature of the older rings disappeared when the new ring took its place, and the 

average life span of an individual ring was on the order of 500 days. 

To improve the model, several test cases were performed to find the lowest 

reasonable values of viscosity and diffusivity that would generate more realistic eddy 

fields and continue to produce a numerically stable solution. A value of 75 m'-s-' was 

chosen for both viscosity and diffusivity for additional simulations with annual-mean 

forcing . This change in the friction had a great effect on the ring separation process and 

the westward migration of the rings. The LC became very unstable during the separation 

of a ring . Both the LC and the shed ring exhibited frontal waves and filaments along the 

outer boundaries from a time just before ring separation until after the ring was 

completely shed (Figure 4). Once the ring and the LC were moving away from each 

other, the frontal instabilities began to disappear. The rings no longer followed a 

predetermined path in the low friction simulations, although they did tend to move along 

two general paths . One path was just to the north of 24°N in the central GOM and the 

other was just to the south of 24°N. The maximum swirl speeds of the LC increased to 

over 100 cm-s-' and maximum swirl speeds of the rings in the eastern GOM increased-to 

over 70 cm-s-' in the low friction simulations. Lowering the friction resulted in LC and 

ring behavior that compared more favorably with observations . 
13 

o . . . . . 

f . 

r ~ \ .. . r 1 

S I ~ ~ 

~ r ~ ~ t 1 v 1 

~ 1 t 1 1 1 ~ i r r r r . r a ~. \ ~ / .~ 

--------- -- 

1 t ~ R --f --- 

t-f--

~ rt~, 

- 

_ f 

O.5OOE+O1 O.8OOE+02 

-y 

Ylplmum Vector Maximum Vector 

CASElOA WEEK = 252 .0 CONTOUR FROM 22.5 TO 27 BY .5 

DEPTH = 37.5M LEVEL = 1 

Figure 3 . Level 1 (37.5 m) temperature (°C) and velocity (cm-s-) fields for 

the annual-mean forcing case with high viscosity (200 m'-s-') and 

diffusivity (100 mZ~s-') at model week 252 . 
14 

- .  . 

v f .. -. r j > . ti . . 

r 

. .>> rr 

"~ " . .. _ . . . . m . ti~ .. ~ ~ 2 . e 

. . . . . . . Ln 

~u ~r 

w `\ ti ..._rr r .r . . ~ . . . . . . . 1 

a ~ f f . . . r 1 . . 

. . r ,~, . . . , . . 

- - - ~ .- F 

t~ . . . . . 

0.500E+0 1 0.102E+03 

-r 

1[tnimum Vector Yazimum Vector 

CASElOB WEAK = 252.0 CONTOUR FROM 22.5 TO 27 BY .5 

DEPTH = 37.5M LEVEL = 1 

Figure 4. Level 1 (37.5 m) temperature (°C) and velocity (cm-s-') fields for 

the annual-mean forcing case with low viscosity (75 m'-s-') and 

diffusivity (75 m'-s-1) at model week 252. 
15 

CHAPTER 3 

PRESENT-DAY SIMULATIONS 

3 .1 Introduction 

The initial model simulations using annual mean forcing were necessary to 

develop a method for forcing the GOM and confirm the stability of the model and its 

ability to reproduce observed circulation features. The next phase in the model 

development was to implement the annual cycle in the forcing by applying monthly wind 

forcing and a seasonally-varying surface boundary condition. Further verification of the 

model's ability to simulate GOM circulation was possible using seasonal forcing . The 

model output from the seasonal forcing simulations is also a source of data to learn about 

processes in the present-day GOM that we do not have sufficient observations to 

understand completely. The last, but very significant, reason for the seasonal forcing 

simulations was to serve as a basis for comparison for the final stage in the dissertation, 

which was to model the GOM under LGM environmental conditions . 

3 .2 Model Description 

The model configuration for the seasonal forcing simulations was exactly the 

same as for the initial annual-mean forcing simulations. The temperature, salinity, 

velocity, transport stream function and vorticity fields output from the low-friction, 

annual-mean forcing simulations were used to initialize the seasonal forcing simulations . 

The wind stress fields were derived from the Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) monthly 

wind stress climatology. The seasonal-mean SST and salinity fields were interpolated 

from the Levitus seasonal climatology (1982). The Levitus climatology defined the 

seasons according to the following grouping of the months: winter - February, March, 

April; spring - May, June, July ; summer - August, September, October; and fall -

November, December, January. In order for the climatological surface forcing to vary 

smoothly in time, both the monthly mean wind stress field and the seasonal mean 

temperature and salinity fields at level 1 were linearly interpolated. 

It was possible in the model to force a seasonal variation in the baroclinic shear 

of the inflow in the western Caribbean, therefore the temperature and salinity along the 

vertical transect centered at 82.375°W in the Caribbean were restored to the seasonal 

Levitus values . However, it was impractical to force seasonal changes in the volume 

transport, because the model was very sensitive to changes in the amount of ucomponent of velocity that is added along the north-south transect in the Caribbean. A 

minimum of one year of model spin-up time was needed for the model to adjust to small 

changes in the value of u added along 82.375°W. During spin-up, the added ucomponent of velocity is increased by very small increments until the target volume 

transport through the Yucatan Channel averaged over a year is achieved. Then the added 

value of u-component of velocity is kept constant over time for the production runs. 
16 

3 .3 General Circulation 

Under seasonal forcing the model transport through the southern Straits of Florida 

varies between 25 Sv and 31 Sv, with an average of 27 .71 Sv (Figure 5). It is assumed 

that the mean inflow through the Yucatan Channel must equal the mean outflow through 

the Florida Straits . Schott et al . (1988) reported that the transport in the northern Straits 

of Florida at 27°N varies from approximately 26 Sv to 33 Sv with the maximum 

occurring in July, which includes approximately 5 Sv entering through the Old Bahama 

Channel and the Northwest Providence Channel . SAIL (1992) observed maxima in the 

flow during December and May for the observation period December 1990 to November 

1991 in the northern Straits of Florida. From Figure 5, it can be seen that the transport 

through the Yucatan Straits varies annually in the seasonal forcing simulations with the 

maximum transport occurring in late spring or early summer. Molinari et al . (1978) 

reported that the maximum transport through the Yucatan Channel in the upper 500 m is 

in June and the mean transport and phases of the maximum transports through the 

Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits are the same. 

Upwelling is generated in the model along the northern coast of Yucatan in the 

vicinity of Cape Catoche, which is strongest in spring and weakest in summer (Figure 6) . 

This upwelling has been observed by Ruiz Renteria (1979) to always occur in spring, but 

only occur sometimes in the summer and to be very weak or non-existent during the 

remainder of the year (Figure 7). The cool water is brought onto the Yucatan Shelf by 

Ekman transport due to local wind and possibly from bottom friction induced by the 

bottom current (Ruiz Renteria 1979). This process occurs when the core of the Yucatan 

Current flows along the eastern edge of the bank. A vertical cross-section of temperature 

from the eastern Yucatan Coast illustrates that the model upwelling is also fed by the cool 

waters along the eastern slope of the Yucatan Peninsula (Figure 8). 

The observed circulation in the Campeche Bay features a semi-permanent 

cyclonic gyre that has an annual average geostrophic transport of approximately 3 Sv 

(Molinari et al . 1978; Vazquez de la Cerda 1993) (Figure 9). This seasonal gyre has its 

maximum geostrophic transport in fall and minimum transport in spring in response to 

seasonal changes in the local wind stress curl (Vazquez de la Cerda 1993). Molinari et al . 

(1978) reported that in the spring some flow separates from the Loop Current and moves 

west along the Campeche Bank into the Bay of Campeche . The model output features a 

well-developed cyclone in the Bay of Campeche in the fall and also flow enters the Bay 

of Campeche from the east over the Campeche Bank each spring (Figure 10). 

A seasonal cycle is also apparent in the western boundary current (WBC) 

generated by the model . The maximum velocities in the model-generated WBC occur in 

the late summer and weaken in winter (Figure 11). The model-simulated WBC remains 

weak from November through January and then begins to strengthen . Molinari et al . 

(1978) computed geostrophic transports for the upper 500 m from observed temperature 

and salinity fields on a 1 ° grid over the entire GOM. The transport in a persistent 

anticyclone in the western GOM had maxima in summer and winter (Molinari et al . 

1978), which agrees with the estimates made by Sturges and Blaha (1976) based on the 
17 

30 .5 

30 .0 

29 .5 II 

29 .0 

28 .5 ' 

28 .0 

N 

a 

O 27 .5 

w 

27 .0 'I 

26 .5 

26 .0 

25 .5 

25 .0 

24 .5 

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 

WEEKS 

Figure 5 . Time series of volume transport stream function (Sv) in the Florida 

Straits for the present-day seasonal forcing case. Model years 

4-11 . This data was processed with a 30-day running mean. 

The time axis begins with March 1 . 
18 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AT 37 .5 M 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR WINTER 

23.75N 

'B. 

aa .~s 

a 

e° 

H 

s 

O 

20 .125N O 

90 .375W 85.75W 

CONTOUR FROM 23 .5 TO 28 BY .25 UVI;pVGQl 

Figure 6a. Four-year averages of the level 1 (37.5 m) temperature field in the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing case 

for Winter. 
19 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AT 37.5 M 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SPRING 

23.75N 

.$ 

4 

0 e 

.oe 

e 1 

J 

m m 

OU 20.125N ~ v 

90.375W 85.75W 

CONTOUR FROM 22.25 TO 28.25 BY .25 UVRpVGQZ 

Figure 6b. Four-year averages of the level 1 (37.5 m) temperature field in the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing case 

for Spring . 
20 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AT 37.5 M 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SUMMER 

23.75N 

N 

P 

.$ 

Z5 0 0 

a 

/\ P 

V \/ 

O `S" 

N 

N 'sue 

25 '~ 

s 

o n 

N 

" O . O 

20 .125N I I ///vim\O/ 

90 .375W 85.75W 

CONTOUR FROM 23 TO 26.75 BY .25 UVHpVGQ3 

Figure 6c. Four-year averages of the level 1 (37.5 m) temperature field in the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing case 

for Summer. 
21 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AT 37 .5 M 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FALL 

23.75N 

\ ?6,?S 

'BB 

P~ Oe;fi 

m° 

hh" aQ 

N 

N 

N 

m 

m 

N 

h 

N 

P 

d 

O 

20 .125N I 

90.375W 85.75W 

CONTOUR FROM 24.5 TO 26.5 BY 25 UVHAVGQ4 

Figure 6d. Four-year averages of the level 1 (37.5 m) temperature field in the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing case 

for Fall . 
23 

2 . 

U" iS7" oo v r vv 

2 6 

27 \ 27 

A ~Incran ~ 26 

''Reel' 

-25 - 

24 28' 

:214 5 -2* 23 22 

25 1' 

" .` 

" 

. C$bo 

, . C,aloch ~ 

i 

PENINSUL,A ~ DE- YUC,ATA.N 

D 

1 

90° 89° 88° 87° 86° 

)3° 

22° 

2I° 

N 

N 

Figure 7a. Observed sea-surface temperature (°C) north of the Yucatan 

Peninsula during May 14-20, 1969 . 
23 

2i 

2 

CSy- CSC)- tS l - qb29 

29' " 28 

~1I8C1'8I1 2f8. 

'Reel' 

28 

Z5 , 

27-- "26 I ~ 

G'abo C$"' 28 

Pea. l'alkubul ~>=y l 

PENINSULA 1)E YUCATAN 100 

23° 

22° 

~90° 89° 88° 87° 86° 

210 

Figure 7b. Observed sea-surface temperature (°C) north of the Yucatan 

Peninsula during September 8-21, 1969 (from Ruiz Renteria 1979). w 
24 

TEMPERATURE TRANSECT (CELSIUS) AT 21 .000 N 

SEASOlA DAY = 3420.0 

37M 

112M 

187M 

262M 

25 

20 

20 

15 - 

1 

450M 

10 

750M 

86 .5W 86 .OtiV 85 .5W 

CONTOUR FROM 8 TO 26 BY 1 

Figure 8a. West-east vertical profile of temperature for the present-day 

seasonal forcing case on model day 3240 (May). 
25 

SALINI'T'Y TRANSECT (PPT - 35) AT 21 .000 N 

SEASOlA DAY = 3420 .0 

37M 

112M ~ X1.25 

187M 1 .25 

1.25 

262M 

1 .00 

.75 

450M 

x.50 

~-.25 

750M 

86 .5W 86.OW 85.5V 

CONTOUR FROM .05 TO 1 .35 BY .05 

Figure 8b. West-east vertical profile of salinity for the present-day 

seasonal forcing case on model day 3240 (May) . 
26 

95 

20 

-~ .2 _~ zoo 

Veracruz 

. ., 

----------- ------- 

, . M 

;, 20 

95 90 

G 

r 

Figure 9 . Contours of the average field of EOF mode 1 dynamic height 

(dyn~cm) of the sea surface relative to 425 db (from Vazquez 

de la Cerda 1993). 
27 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR WINTER AT LEVEL 1 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

iJVI3AVGQ1 " ~ ~ - - - 

2T .25 l 

. . . 1 1 

i - - - " i 1 

l 

/ ~ ~~~ \ L 1~~ / J 

t i 

l i t 

i 

_ ._ ._ rrr r r i ~ s - t 

-------------- 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -------- - - --- - - - - - 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

, ., . . . . . . . . . lip .  

. . . . . . . . i . . . . . ~ . ~ r 

i i . . . . . , ~ . . . / )~ . i 

. . . . 

96W 94W 92W 90W 88W 

O.OOOS+00 0.360E+02 CONTOUR FROM 19.75 TO 25.75 BY .25 -

lfiafmum Vector bf-f-um Vector 

Figure 10a. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) temperature and velocity 

fields in the western Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal 

forcing case in Winter. 
28 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-I) 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SPRING AT LEVEL 1 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

iTVHAVGQ2 i .~_--------- ~`--, . ~I 

/ 

t " " . ~ r ~ I 1 f f 1 1 % / 

~ r i t t I / 

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

- - - - - - - - - - - 

-- -- - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

- ~ za.rs 

. . , , , , . . . . . 23 .75 

. .--- 

98YP 94W 

CONTOUR FROM 21.5 TO 25.75 BY .25 

92W 90W 88W 

04008+00 0.380E+02 

1lfnlmum Vector M-t-um Vector 

Figure lOb. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) temperature and velocity 

fields in the western Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal 

forcing case in Spring. 
29 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SUMMER AT LEVEL 1 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVHAVGQ3 

- - - -- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

Ze 0, 

t ~ , . . . . . . , , . . . . . . i I f f t t t t 

~`~ . . . . . . . . ., ., . .~r ~ 

O 

" - - - - - ~ - 

. , . - - - - 

, . . . . . 

. . . . , . . 

n

. ai ; 

, . ~ ~ .s 

. . 

.  . , 

96W 94W 92W 

CONTOUR FROM 24.5 TO 28.5 BY .25 

o.ooaa+oa 

u1nimum Vector 

90W 88A 

0 .380E+02 

Maximum Vector 

Figure l Oc. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) temperature and velocity 

fields in the western Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal 

forcing case in Summer. 
30 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FALL AT LEVEL 1 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVHAVGQ4 

1 

. . ~ . . ---- ---- ---- 

. . . 

1.~ . . . ~ r I r 

. . ~ 1 

- --

I 

I f f 

- 

. ~ . . . ~ . r r r r ° r i ~ 

r \ ~ ~ - " " " ~ 1 I ins 

r r..-

~ ~ ~ . .~.-

li~ --~~-- 

1 - . . . . . . , . , . . ~ ~ . . . . . 

. . . 

.--- ~ .°- 

9ew 94vr 92w sow e8w 

O.O00E+00 0.380E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 23.25 TO 26.5 BY .25 

law-um Vwtor ll-1mum 

- 

Vector 

Figure lOd. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) temperature and velocity 

fields in the western Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal 

forcing case in Fall . 
31 

MAGNITUDE OF VELOCITY (CM S-1) AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR WINTER 

uvxavce i 

v (~ 

V 

28N Q 

a 20 

e 

m N 

26N 

v 

24N 

v 

22N O~ o O 

D 

0 0 

96VP 94W 92W 90W 

CONTOUR FROM 4 TO 28 BY 4 

Figure 11a. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) velocity magnitudes in 

the northwest Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing 

case for Winter. Hatched areas denote magnitudes greater than 24 cm-s-' . 
32 

MAGNITUDE OF VELOCITY (CM S-1) AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SPRING 

UVHAVGQ2 L-- 

o - o 

0 

28N 

ae 

ae 

V 

26N 

v 

24N 

G~ o e 

22N QU D 

0 

1 I 1 --r---T ~ i`-Q96W 94W 92W 90W 

CONTOUR FROM 4 TO 32 BY 4 

Figure 11b. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) velocity magnitudes in 

the northwest Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing 

case for Spring . Hatched areas denote magnitudes greater than 24 cm-s-' . 
33 

MAGNITUDE OF VELOCITY (CM S-1) AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SUMMER 

uvxavGqs 

28N 

29 26 

m h 

26N 

V 

tim 

24N 

O 

22N O o° . u-0 " o 

O-~ o0 o p o 

q~ O O 

" -VoO0 00 

96W 94W 92W 90W 

CONTOUR FROM 4 TO 36 BY 4 

Figure 11c. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) velocity magnitudes in 

the northwest Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing 

case for Summer. Hatched areas denote magnitudes greater than 24 cm-s-' . 
34 

MAGNITUDE OF VELOCITY (CM S-1) AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FAIL 

UVHAVGQ4 '--Lr 

28N 

f 

N 

o 

zsx 

e 

24N - O 

w 

22N 

96W 94W 92W 90W 

CONTOUR FROM 4 TO 24 BY 4 

Figure 11 d. Four-year averages of level 1 (37.5 m) velocity magnitudes in 

the northwest Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonal forcing 

case for Fall. Hatched areas denote magnitudes greater than 24 cm-s-' . 
35 

observed curl of the wind stress . Sturges (1994) concluded that the WBC, which is 

observed to have a maximum in July and a minimum in October is driven by the curl of 

the wind stress and Ekman pumping over the western GOM. 

A numerical modeling study was made by Oey (1995) to determine the relative 

importance of wind, rings, and bouyancy forcing from riverine flow on the cyclonic 

circulation on the Louisiana-Texas shelf region . The Princeton Model, which is a threedimensional, primitive-equation, ocean model, was used with a horizontal grid resolution 

of 20 km and 20 cells in the vertical . The model domain of Oey (1995) extended outside 

the GOM into the northwestern Caribbean to the south and eastward to the Bahama 

Islands for the purpose of prescribing natural inflow and outflow conditions for the GOM. 

This model also featured seasonal wind forcing and produced a WBC that was strongest 

in July and August following the maximum in negative wind stress curl from May to July 

(Oey 1995). 

A semi-permanent feature of these model results is the current that runs from the 

northwest corner of the GOM eastward along the shelf break toward the Mississippi Delta 

(see Figure 11). Oey (1995) also observed this current in his model results and referred 

to it as the shelf break current (SC). Oey (1995) noted that there is an increase in the 

transport of the SC from May through October. Since the transport of the SC continued 

to increase after the timing of the maximum transport of the WBC in the model, Oey 

(1995) concluded that the SC is partly forced by the WBC, partly by a change in the curl 

of the wind stress that occurs from September through October, and by the decay of rings 

in the northwest corner of the GOM. Molinari et al . (1978) also observed the SC and 

suggested that it may carry Texas Shelf water through the north central GOM and rejoin 

the LC. The process of entrainment of western GOM water by the LC via the SC is 

apparent in the model output. Transport of GOM waters on shore near the Mississippi 

Canyon by the SC is observed in this model output as well as in the model of Oey (1995) 

(see also Figure 11) . 

From current meter measurements, Cochrane and Kelly (1986) reported that 

currents off Freeport, Texas are northward in July, absent in June and August, and 

southward for the rest of the year. Currents on the south Texas shelf generated in the 

model by Oey (1995) were to the north in July and southward in October. This model 

produces southward flow over the south Texas shelf for most of the year with northward 

flow sometimes occurring briefly in spring or summer. 

The circulation on the Louisiana-Texas shelf is characterized by an elongated 

cyclone with currents flowing westward near shore and eastward on the outer shelf and 

shelf break that is present during all months except July and August (Cochrane and Kelly 

1986) . The currents along most of the Texas-Louisiana Shelf are primarily wind-driven 

(Cochrane and Kelly 1986), although the numerical model of Oey (1995) demonstrated 

that rings and bouyancy forcing also contribute to the total shelf transport. The model 

circulation on the Louisiana-Texas shelf was exactly opposite in direction to what was 

observed. Although a realistic SC flows eastward in the model, the flow along the outer 

shelf was westward and the flow near the coast was eastward. The inability of the model 

to simulate the Texas-Louisiana shelf circulation is mainly due to the coarse spatial 
36 

resolution of the Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) wind data, which is 2° x 2°, while the 

Texas-Louisiana shelf is less than two-degrees wide for most of its length . Another 

reason for the reverse circulation of the model on the Louisiana-Texas shelf is most likely 

due to the lack of buoyancy forcing that would be provided by the fresh water flux of the 

Mississippi River. Although the Levitus (1982) data is used for surface relaxation of 

temperature and salinity, the data set does include the inner shelf region west of the 

Mississippi Delta and the fresh water signal is not adequately represented. 

The model produces flow along the West Florida shelf that is southerly 

throughout the year, but in the vicinity of the Dry Tortugas, a semi-permanent gyre 

develops in response to the ring-separation cycle (Figure 12). When the LC is 

penetrating well into the GOM, a cold-core cyclonic gyre, Tortugas Gyre, forms to the 

east of the Dry Tortugas off the southern portion of the west Florida Shelf. After a ring 

has shed from the LC and the LC is reforming, this cyclonic gyre is forced eastward into 

the entrance to the southern Straits of Florida and disappears. This process was observed 

by Lee et al. (1995) and SAIC (1992) using a combination of moored current meters, 

shipboard hydrography, and satellite images of surface temperature fields . Lee et al. 

(1995) explained that the Tortugas gyre forms when the LC is well-formed in the eastern 

GOM and flow from the LC overshoots the southern Straits of Florida. The cold-core 

features are approximately 200 km in size and exist for time scales of about 100 days 

(Lee et al . 1995). SAIC (1992) noted that during the eastward advection of the Tortugas 

Gyre water is exchanged between the outer shelf and upper slope due to the the cyclonic 

rotation of the gyre . Also the Tortugas Gyre is responsible for deflecting the Florida 

Current to the south, which forces the Florida Current offshore when the gyre moves to 

the east (SAIC 1992) . Thus the Tortugas Gyre can affect the position of the Florida 

Current within the Florida Straits as well as the hydrography of the Florida Current . The 

Tortugas gyre generated in the model is also approximately 200 km in diameter when 

fully developed and persists over similar time scales as observed. 

3 .4 Loop Current Rings 

The process of shedding rings in the GOM is of major importance in the GOM. 

The variability in the LC itself as well as some of the variability in the circulation on the 

Yucatan and west Florida shelves is due to the separation of rings. The ring-separation 

process also has a large influence on the heat and salt budgets of the GOM and is 

responsible for coupling the circulation in the eastern and western portions of the GOM. 

It is necessary then that a numerical model of the GOM realistically simulate the ringseparation process and the westward migration of the LC rings. 

The formation of LC rings in the model appears similar to the following process 

described by Lewis and Kirwan (1987) : 

The classical concept of Loop Current processes is one 

in which part of the Gulf Stream at first flows directly from the 

Yucatan Straits to the Florida Straits. Within this flow field, insta- 
37 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 37.5M LEVEL = 1 DAY= 192 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

IIVHIY4-5 . . . . . . . . . . 

. . 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

`~6 ` , . . . . . 

. . . . ~ . . ` ` 

nr-. 

. . . . . , . . . . ~eI ~ , . . . . 

.--

, .,~ . . . .,tt t1 t \1~ ~~ ----

~ x-`26 ~ - - 

. . . . . . . , . _ ~ 1, 

. . . _ . '` ~ ~ . . 

--

. . .

. . . . . . . . i

. . . . 

. . . . .--_ . 

~it~~ ----- - - -- - 

1it~~  --- -- - - - 26 

90W 88W 86W 

CONTOUR FROM 23.6 TO 27.2 BY .4 

84W 

0.000E+00 

Yiaimum Vector 

82W 

0.983E+02 

31. 

Maximum Vector 

Figure 12a. Sequence of level 1 (37.5 m) temperature and velocity fields 

in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on model day 192 . 
38 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 37.5M LEVEL = 1 DAY= 216 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH1Y4-5 , . . . . . . 

~ I ~ . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

. . ~ ~ / i - ~ 

. . . . . . . . . . . 

-oi 

. . - - - - - - - - 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . 

~ 1 t . . . . 

- - - - - - - - - - 

- 

- 

90W 88W 86W 

CONTOUR FROM 24 TO 27 .2 BY .4 

841 

0.000E+00 

Minimum vector 

ezw 

O.B3BE+02 

u.~dm.vector 

Figure 12b. Sequence of level 1 (37 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields 

in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on model day 216. 
39 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 37 .5M LEVEL = 1 DAY= 240 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH1Y4-5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

. . . -~. .~ - - 

. . . . . ~ 1 1 . " . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

. _ . . . . 1 C 1 i - ~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . , . 

. . . . . . . . . . i / / / i - ~ . . . . . . . . . . . 

. . . . - - - - - - - - ^ . . . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . 1 

. . 

It b~ . ., ---- -- --- 

90W 88W 86W 

CONTOUR FROM 24 TO 27.2 BY .4 

84W 

0.000E+00 

ILinimum Vector 

82W 

0.748E+02 

Maximum Vector 

Figure 12c. Sequence of level 1 (37.5 m) temperature and velocity fields 

in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on model day 240. 
40 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 37 .5M LEVEL = 1 DAY= 264 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

r VH1, Y4-5 . 

. 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

. . . t f 1 . . ~ ~ , . . . . . . . . . . i 

. . . . . . . 

. . . . . . 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

tt<<~~ 

--- - 

foe 

----------- - - - 

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

- _--------- -- " 

90W 88W B61'P 

CONTOUR FROM 23 .6 TO 27.2 BY .4 

84W 

0.000E+00 

mi-Imum Vector 

82W 

0.747E+02 

Yazimum Vector 

Figure 12d. Sequence of level 1 (37.5 m) temperature and velocity fields 

in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on model day 264. 
41 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 37.5M LEVEL = 1 DAY= 288 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

UVHIY4-5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . : ' - 

. . . . . . 

~ i . 

. ~ ~\. ~. . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . 

J 

. . ~ r ~ ~ 

. . . 24 

I 

.-- 

. 

. . . 

1 , ' _ `\` o 

- - 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

20N 

90W 88W 86W 

CONTOUR FROM 22.8 TO 26 .8 BY .4 

84W 

0.000E+00 

1lfnimum Vector 

82yY 

0.793E+02 

Vector 

Figure 12e. Sequence of level 1 (37 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields 

in the eastern Gulf of Mexico on model day 288 . 
42 

bilities exist which result in meandering of the Loop Current 

(Hurlburt and Thompson 1980). As the sizes of the meanders 

increase and reach northward, it is generally believed that the 

flow field wraps back onto itself and 'shorts' across the stream of 

flow: Part of the flow would still go northward around the Loop 

Current extension, while the remainder of the flow would take 

the more direct, southerly route to the Florida Straits. 

The process of ring separation in the model is very gradual using high friction (AM 

= 200 M2-S- ' and AH = 100 mz~s-') and resembles the model results of Sturges et al . (1993), 

who state: "it is difficult to point to any specific time at which one can say that the ring 

has just 'separated"' . After friction was reduced (Am= AH = 75 mz~s-' ) in the annualmean forcing simulations, the ring separation could be described as a much more 

catastrophic event. Both the LC and semi-attached ring exhibit rapid boundary 

fluctuations just as the ring is about to separate . Immediately following separation, the 

rapid boundary fluctuations cease and the flow fields of the LC and the ring become 

smooth again. As the ring is separating, frontal waves propagate along the northern 

boundary of the LC from west to east from the northern extension of the LC out through 

the Florida Straits . The anticyclonic flow within the model LC strengthens just 

following ring separation. 

There are a great number of observations of individual rings from hydrographic 

surveys, current meter measurements, drifters, and satellite imagery. In comparison to 

observations, the model rings have reasonable lateral dimensions, vertical structure, swirl 

velocities (velocity about the ring center), translation speeds, migration paths, fine-scale 

boundary features, and life spans . Table 2 summarizes various model ring characteristics 

and compares them to observations . Some authors report swirl speeds in both the LC and 

rings that reach 200-300 cm-s-', although speeds under 200 cm-s-' are more representative . 

Swirl speeds for the model LC are generally under 130 cm-s-' and under 100 cm-s-' for the 

rings. This is partly due to the fact that peak velocities reported in the literature are 

observed at the surface and the level 1 (uppermost level) model velocities represent the 

mean for the upper 75 m of the water column. Also the model is forced with 

climatological forcing, i .e . surface wind stress and vertical hydrographic fields that are 

spatially averaged and vary smoothly in time. 

The model's ability to simulate the vertical structure of the rings correctly has an 

important bearing on its ability to simulate the heat and salt balances of the GOM. 

Although LC rings are of the warm-core type, observed rings and the model rings 

sometimes have cooler surface water at the center compared to the outer portions . Drifter 

analysis by Lewis and Kirwan (1987) indicates that the kernel of the ring water is 

entrained from the waters off the northwest coast of Cuba. Figure 13 compares the 

model temperature structure with hydrographic data collected by ships of opportunity for 

the Minerals Management Service (after SAIC 1986) . Note the divergence of the 

isotherms with depth in the LC and the rings below 450 m and the shape of the isotherms 

as they slope up from the ring to the LC . 
43 

Table 2 . Characteristics of model Loop Current rings for the present-day seasonal forcing 

case. 

Migration Time to Ring 

Ring Size ' Speed Wall 2 Lifespan Interaction 

(km) (km d-') (cm s') (days) (days) 

S1 350 6.33 7.33 168 432 merge 

S2 350 3.45 3.99 288 456 split 

S3 364 3.89 4.50 288 408 split 

S4 350 3.39 3.93 264 360 none 

S5 434 3.71 4.30 288 312 none 

S6 364 3.92 4.54 264 360 none 

S7 392 3.69 4.27 264 300 merge 

S8 364 4.69 5 .43 184 300 merge 

Mean 371 4.13 4 .78 251 366 

Std. dev. 29.0 0.97 0 .50 47 .8 60.8 

Observed Values: 

366 3 4 4 1 year 3 

300-400 5 5 5 

Approximate diameter in the eastern GOM. Measured by taking an average of the 

north-south and east-west dimensions of each ring . 

z Time to western wall is a visual estimate of the number of days that each ring took from 

just after separation to reach the outer shelf of the Mexico or Texas coast. The arrival 

of the ring at the western wall is characterized by some deformation of the ring, 

typically marked by a north-south elongation of the ring. 

3 Elliot (1982) 

4 Oey (1995) 

5 Vukovich and Crissman (1986) 
44 

TEMPERATURE TRANSECT (CELSIUS) AT 24 .875 N 

SEASOlA DAY = 2250 .0 

37M 

112M 

187M 

262M 

25 

20 20 20 

15 

\ X15 

1450M 

10 10 10 

1750M 

94 .OW 92.OW 90 .OW 86.OW ti6 .UW 04. 

CONTOUR FROM 6 TO 25 BY 1 

Figure 13a. Vertical cross-section of temperature through a ring and the 

Loop Current from the present-day seasonally forced model. 
45 

STATION 

m - a so m L,: !! ao m c~ c~ ~ w 

^ N M `r W O f- Co m - - N N N N N N 

0 

100 

200 

300 

c y- 400 

w 

500 

z 

a 

0 600 

700 

800 

0 

r, m CD m N N N l7 

=u ` n 

\1 

vim'-' I 5 

~-, 

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 

DISTANCE (KM) 

Figure 13b. Vertical temperature (°C) section through a ring and the the Loop 

Current in the Gulf of Mexico collected by the Nordic Wasa on 

January 7-8, 1984 (from SAIC 1986). 
46 

Observed rings in the eastern GOM are characterized by the high salinity 

maximum of 36 .6 ppt with a potential temperature of 22.5°C at 200 m (Elliot 1982) . This 

high salinity core represents Caribbean Subtropical Underwater (SUW) and is typically 

70-m thick. As the ring migrates westward, connective mixing causes the SUW to 

eventually be transformed into Gulf Common Water with a salinity of 36.5 ppt and 

potential temperature of 22 .5°C at 100 m (Elliot 1982). The degradation and shoaling of 

the high salinity core is illustrated in an east-west vertical cross-section through a ring in 

the central GOM and the LC in Figure 14. The salinity maxima in the model are 

somewhat less than observed because the vertical resolution of the model may be too 

coarse to resolve the salinity maximum. Also seasonally-averaged and spatially-averaged 

hydrographic data in the Caribbean are used to force the vertical shear of the 

Caribbean/Yucatan currents . 

During the 8 years of model simulation for the seasonal forcing case, there were 

13 complete ring migration paths. The model rings undergo shape transformation from 

initially elongated east-west to more circular or directed north-south as observed by 

Lewis and Kirwan (1987) using drifters to study the kinematics of ring separation. The 

model rings move westward with the observed average translation speed of 

approximately 4 km day-' while decreasing in lateral dimensions with time. Although 

each ring follows a unique migration path, the rings tend to follow one of three 

characteristic paths which are illustrated in Figure 15. The model migration paths are 

tracked by monitoring the position of the 21 .2°C isotherm at 187.5 m and are therefore 

continuous and not affected by seasonal surface heating and cooling. 

The characteristic path that is followed by the majority of the model rings is to the 

southwest, south of 24°N in the region 91°W to 93°W, and then westward. These rings 

may elongate, but do not split. They remain intact and eventually move northward along 

the western wall into the northwest corner . 

Rings that are at a latitude of 24°N between 91°W and 93°W typically split in a 

north-south direction. A portion of the ring moves directly into the northwest corner and 

the other portion continues to the southwest until it reaches the western wall and then 

moves northward into the northwest corner (Figure 16). 

When a model ring moves directly into the northwestern GOM, it is generally 

larger than average and partially merges with an older ring in the northwest corner. 

These partial mergings are very similar to those described for Kuroshio warm core rings 

by Yasuda (1995) . The partial mergings in the model and a model simulation of a larger 

ring merging with a smaller ring by Yasuda (1995) exhibit the following sequence : 1) a 

larger ring moving to the west and a smaller ring located to the northwest of it ; 2) 

exchange of fluid via streamers wrapping around each other; 3) movement of the smaller 

ring to the east along the northern perimeter of the larger ring; 4) splitting off of some or 

most of the younger ring to the south or east ; 4) the larger ring moving into the location 

formerly occupied by the smaller ring. A sequence of level 1 temperature and velocity 

fields illustrating a new ring merging with an old ring is presented (Figure 17). 

Vukovich and Crissman (1986) observed that rings follow three characteristic 

paths during westward migration (Figure 18) which are similar to the model ring 
47 

SALINITY TRANSECT (PPT - 35) AT 24.875 N 

SEASOlA DAY = 2250 .0 

37M 

u 

112M ~ 1 .25 

1 .25 125 

V 

187M - Hi.3as 

262M 

1 .00 1.00 

.75 .75 

1 .00 

450M 

.50 .50 

.50 

.25 

.25 .25 

750M 

0 

94 .OW 92.OW 90.OW 88 .OW 86.OW 84. 

CONTOUR FROM - .1 TO 1 .4 BY .05 

Figure 14 . Vertical cross-section of salinity through a ring and the Loop 

Current from the present-day seasonal forcing model at model 

day 2250 (February) . 
48 

M 

~1I r -

L 

r 

... 

187.5 (M) 

Figure 15 . Migration paths of 8 Loop Current rings generated in a 5-year 

simulation using the present-day seasonally forced model. 
49 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187 .5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 120 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH3Y4-5 

. , - - - 

. . 

- - 

. . . . . . ~f,. ~ ~ 

. . . ._ . ., .~ .- ~ ,// 

. . . r i i i i . . . . . 

. . i i . . . . . . . . . . . r 

96W 94W 92W 90W 98w 

0.000E+00 0 .418E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 -

ILfnimum Vector Ya~mum Vector 

Figure 16a. Level 3 (187 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 120. 
50 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 144 

UVH3Y4-5 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

-' ~ i --- 

fl/~ 

i 1 t - . . . . \ 1 1 r ~ i ~ , . 

1 ~ z, l 

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

i i i . . . 

. 

. . . . 

96W 94W 92W 90W 88W 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 

o.oooa+oo o.sao~ z 

Ytnimum vector Ks~-um Vector 

Figure 16b. Level 3 (187.5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 144. 
51 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-L) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 168 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH3Y4-5 

. . . . . . . . 

. . . , ~ 1 1 1 . . 

  , .   , . 

,, .     . . ./ 

. . . . . . . . . . 17 

96W 94W 92W 90W 88W 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 

o.ooos+ao o.7oas+oz 

Minimum Vector 1L-imum Vaotor 

Figure 16c. Level 3 (187.5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 168 . 
52 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187 .5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 192 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH3Y4-5 

. . . , . . 

-------------- 

- ------- .o - . . . . . . . . . . .,_ 

1 1 ,   .  . . . . 

. . . . . . .   . . . . . . . ... 

r 

I ~ ~ ~ ! " " ~ l \ . . . , . . . . . . . . . . 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

96W 94W 92W 90W 88VY 

O.OOOB+00 0.748E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 -

Yiaimum vector Yaimum Vector 

Figure 16d. Level 3 (187.5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 192. 
53 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 216 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

2oN 

UVH3Y4-5 

. . . . 

_ . . ~ . . . 

. . . , . 

f ill 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

ssw s4W azw Sow eew 

O.OOOS+00 O.B70E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 -

minimum Vector Yezimim Vector 

Figure 16e . Level 3 (187 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 216. 
54 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 240 

UVH3Y4-5 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

- . . . . , . .,, 

I . . . . ~ . . . . . . ~ r / I . . . . . ~ i 

96W 94W 92W 90W 881P 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 

o .ooas+oo o .eas~ z 

Minimum Vector 1[a~jmum Vector 

Figure 16f. Level 3 (187 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 240 
55 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCI'T'Y VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187 .5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 432 

26N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH3Y4-5 

. . . . . . . . 

li~ . . .~ . .,~~ . . . . . . . . . . .  

it . . ., .,_, . . . . . . . . . ., 

. . . _ . . '3 . . . . , , . . . . . . . , 

r ~ . . . . , , . , . ~ i 

l~/" 

~ ~ ~ . . . . . . , . . . 

. ., . . ._ . .~ lip, . . . . . . 

. _ , . , . _ . . ~ \ 1 ! ~ . . . . . . 

. . - - - . . . . _ . . . ~ \ / ! t ~ . . . . 

. . . . . 

96W 94W 92W 90W 88W 

0 .000E+00 0 .741E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 -

llinimum Vector Yazimum Vector 

Figure 17a. Level 3 (187.5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 432. 
56 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-i) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 456 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH3Y4-5 

} 1 ~ ~~ 1 1 ~ , , i ! ! ~ . . 

i . . . . _ , ~ t t ~ i . . . . . . . . . . - ~ r 

. .~i~r ~ t~ ., . . . . . . . . . ., 

i 1 ~ . . ~ 1 ~ ~ . . . . . . . , . . 

. . . . . . . . . 

. . _ . . . . . . ~ . ~ \ ~ ~._ r / / / ~ i . . . . 

96W 94W 92W 90W 8BW 

0 .000E+00 0.701E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 311 

Minimum Vector Yazimum Vector 

Figure 17b . Level 3 (187.5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 456. 
57 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-i) 

DEPTH = 187 .5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 480 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH3Y4-5 

. . , , 

. . . . 

. . , . ~ ~ ~ . 

Tl ~ ~J is/ ///+` 

I 

f 1 

. . . . . . i 1 ! / 1 . . . . . . . . . . . 

. _ . . ~ r t ~ t ~ / ~ . . , . , . . . . 

. . , . . . . - ~ \ \~ / / ~ . . . . 

96W 94W 92W 90W 88W 

O.OOOS+00 0.684E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 -

1liaimum Vector maximum Vector 

Figure 17c. Level 3 (187.5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 480. 
58 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 504 

UVH3Y4-5 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

. . , , . 

. , . ~ ~ , . 

i 

Jl1/ " ~~~'~ ~ r 

-~lll -- \l~----, .   .i~ . . 

11 ~ / ll~' ' 

. r . 

96W 94W 92W 90W 99W 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 

0.0008+00 0.440E+02 

Minimum Vector N.XLmim Vector 

Figure 17d. Level 3 (187 .5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 504. 
59 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-i) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY= 528 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

UVH3Y4-5 

. . 

. . , 

~ 

~ . . 

; 

. - . - . err 

~t . t~% 

_ . . s ~ t 1 l ! ' l l-'!v ~ l 

itti 

. . . . . . . 

96W 94W 92W 90W 88w 

0 .000E+00 0.428E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 22 BY .1 30 

Minimum Vector Vector 

Figure 17e. Level 3 (187.5 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 528. 
60 

cr- 

- ~- Js ~ 

2. 

' 

Z 

f 4 - 

yu a~ . au 

I 

I 

I I I ~ I I ~ I I I 

" . . " I " I I I 

i I I l 

~ 1=~ 

fi'°I I 

. ' 

o 

Figure 18. Characteristic paths of warm rings in the western Gulf of Mexico 

and the position of warm ring centers obtained using GOES 

and NOAA satellite data for the periods of 1973-1984 (from 

Vukovich and Crissman 1986) . 
61 

migration paths. Of the nine long-term paths observed, six rings followed path 1, which 

was the predominant path. Many of the drifter tracks presented in Indest (1992) also 

follow a southwesterly course before turning northward along the Texas-Mexico coast. 

The majority of the model rings followed a path similar to path 1 . Both of the 

characteristic migration paths 2 and 3 were based on only one long-term path and a 

number of isolated points (Vukovich and Crissman 1986). Only those model rings that 

split in the region of 24.5°N and 91 .5°W follow a path similar to path 2, although 

Vukovich and Crissman (1986) do not report that any of the observed rings split. The 

model rings that migrate westward and merge with an older ring already resident in the 

northwest corner follow a path that is between paths 2 and 3 . Some differences in the 

model migration paths and the observed paths are due to the monitoring of the model 

rings at 187 .5 m, because the of the tilt of the isotherms with depth. 

3 .5 The Deep Circulation 

Although many studies have been made of the upper layer circulation in the 

GOM, only a limited number of studies have been made of the deep circulation . The 

most recent observational study was made by Hamilton (1990) using moored current 

meters to make direct measurements of the currents below 1000 m. The current meter 

measurements were recorded at depths from 1000 m to 3 174 m in the eastern, central and 

western portions of the GOM between 24 .5°N and 27°N. Most of the current meter 

measure-ments reported in Hamilton (1990) are on the continental slope in the 

northwestern portion of the GOM and do not provide direct information about the deep 

circulation away from the continental slope and rise. 

Hamilton (1990) reported that low frequency fluctuations with periods greater 

than 10 days were propagating from east to west with a group speed of 9 km~day-' and 

that they had the characteristics of topographic Rossby waves. Hamilton (1990) also 

reported that the deep motions were travelling faster than the average westward 

migration speed of rings and he concluded that the deep motions were becoming 

progressively decoupled from the surface anticyclones . These deep motions are highly 

coherent in the vertical and exhibit bottom intensification (Hamilton 1990). Hoffman and 

Worley (1991) inferred from hydrographic data that, along with small circulation cells, 

there is a large cyclone in the deep western basin that opposes the upper layer circulation. 

The velocity fields generated by this model are remarkably similar to the 

observations . To begin with, the deep motions in the model are highly coherent with 

depth from between 1000 and 1500 m all the way to the bottom (Figure 19) and the 

maximum velocities in the model also become stronger as the bottom is approached. The 

model results indicate that there are large cyclones dominating the deep circulation and 

that the location of the upper layer anticyclones (rings) are related to the position of the 

deep cyclones. The maximum swirl speeds of the deep cyclones in the model range from 

10 cm s'' to 20.6 cm s' at 2550 m which is in agreement with velocities measured at 

mooring GG in the central basin at 1650 m and 2500 m (Figure 20 after Hamilton 1990). 
62 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 37.5M LEVEL = 1 DAY = 2250 

I 28N 

f 26N 

I 24N 

I 22N 

20N 

. p 

~ V \" / `f 

V O' t 

N ~ ~ ~ R \ ` ~ , I . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . b ~ . . . . . . . . . t t , 1 . 

. . 

.

.

.

. . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . _ . . . . . i 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . fir,  ., . 

. . . . . . ., . . . . . ~Iltr~~ . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . , . . . ~ 

" ~ "1 1 t ~ ,  

1 I t t c . 

94W 92W 90W 

CONTOUR FROM 20.8 TO 26 BY .4 

88W 

0.152E+00 

Minimum Vector 

86W 

0.109E+03 

-s 

Maximum Vector 

Figure 19a. Temperature contours (°C) and velocity vectors (cm s') for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 2250 at 37 .5 m. 
63 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 187.5M LEVEL = 3 DAY = 2250 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

. . ~ i ~ ~ . . . . . . - . , ~ ~ , . _ _ ~..r. . . _ - _ _ . . . , . 

-- . . . .  ~~~ ._ .r li . . . . 

0C 

. . l 

. . . . .

. . . . . .

. 

. . . . . .

.0 - . . . ~, , 

. .---

. . . . . . . FI ~ , . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . 

94W 92W 90W 88W 86W 

0220E+00 0.782E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 17 .6 TO 22 BY .4 10 

Minimum Vector 1(a-dmum Vector 

Figure 19b. Temperature contours (°C) and velocity vectors (cm s') for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 2250 at 187.5 m. 
64 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH =1050.OM LEVEL = 7 DAY = 2250 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

. . . . . . . . _ . . _- . - . .t ~ . 

4f 

IQ J, 

. . . . . _ . . . . . . . _ _ . _ ~ 1 

. . . . . . . . . . .,, . ~- .1. .-

, . . . . . . . . t 

. . . . . . . . . . t r 

. . . . . . . . . . . ~ r ~ ~ 

. . . . . . . . . . . . ~ r ~ . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ r r ~ . _ . 

94W 92W 90W 88W 66W 

CONTOUR FROM 3.8 TO 6.2 BY .2 

0.487E-01 0.221E+02 

-> 

Minimum Vector Maximum Vector 

Figure 19c. Temperature contours (°C) and velocity vectors (cm s') for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 2250 at 1050 m. 
65 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS ( 

DEPTH =1350 .OM LEVEL = 8 DAY = 2250 

CM S-1) 

28N . . . . . . . 

. . . . . . . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . 

. . 

~~3e 

- 

JJ 

26N . --- ._ . ., . . . . . . . . . _ . . I t~t~ 1 

c 

24N 

. ~ ~ r ~ . . . . . 

zzx 

. . - 

., . . . . . ., 

. . . . . . . . . . IJ 

t ~ 

20N 

, . . . . . . . . 

. . . . . . i t . . 

94W 92W 90W 88W 86W 

0.108E-01 0.117E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 4 TO 5.1 BY .05 

Minimum Vector Yazimum Vector 

Figure 19d. Temperature contours (°C) and velocity vectors (cm s'') for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 2250 at 1350 m. 
66 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°c) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM s-1) 

DEPTH =3450.OM LEVEL = 15 DAY = 2250 

128N 

126N 

124N 

122N 

20N 

r - " r ~ i " - ~ ~ \ \ \ 1 

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

. . . .'

. . 

., 

., . 

94W 92W 

CONTOUR FROM 4.108 TO 4.164 BY .004 

90W 88W 

0.850E-01 

Minimum Vector 

B6W 

0.187E+02 

Maxim- Vector 

Figure 19e. Temperature contours (°C) and velocity vectors (cm s') for the 

present-day seasonally forced model on day 2250 at 3450 m. 
GG4/S 1650m 

so 

o 

.2"0 

20 G C 5 2500m 

io 

o 

-io 

- :o 

~ . ~ . 

1oo 1eo 2ao 2.+o ' 30o 35o 4oo ,eo eoo No 

. . . ' ~- 

boo eeo 7oo 

MAY JUN .LT AUC !ET OCT NOV DEC JAN FE! MM APR MT JUN JLT RUC SE1 OCT Nov 

.uuw OATS wee lees 

oar IOD 1 " 4/1aIfe7 CENTRAL a" 7-Mr DEP alMdit l IEs 

Figure 20 . Seven-DLP stick vectors for the central Gulf of Mexico at 1650 m and 2500 m (from Hamilton 1990). 

~l 
68 

Detailed analysis of the model temperature and velocity fields has provided a 

complete picture of the formation and westward migration of the deep cyclones . 

Animations of the model velocity fields at 187.5m, 1650 m and 2550 m show that as the 

LC extends northward into the GOM during the ring-separation cycle, the deep 

circulation beneath the LC changes from anticyclonic to cyclonic (Figure 21). This 

change in circulation can also be observed in current meter records in the eastern GOM at 

depths of 1565 m, 2364 m, and 3174 m during the formation of two rings, labeled 'eddy 

B' and 'eddy C' (Figure 22 from Hamilton 1990). 

The deep cyclone that forms beneath the ring in the model is highly coherent in 

the vertical and 'feels' the bottom bathymetry. The 3450-m isobath for the GOM is 

separated into two closed basins, a small basin to the east and a larger basin in the central 

and western region of the GOM. There is a narrow passage below 3000 meters that 

connects the deepest portions of the eastern and central basins (see Figure 2). As the ring 

migrates over this passage, the deep cyclone becomes constricted in the north-south 

direction, as if it were squeezing through the passage. The temperature signal of the ring 

is coupled to the velocity signal down to at least 2550 m (Figure 23) . The influence of 

the bathymetry can also be seen on the temperature signal as it elongates east-west while 

passing over the narrow passage. Once inside the central basin, the deep cyclone reforms 

and strengthens . 

All deep cyclones observed in this study followed nearly the same westward 

migration path. The position of the upper layer anticyclone changes relative to the 

position of the deep cyclone. Initially the upper layer anticyclone is northwest of the 

deep cyclone, but the cyclone moves counterclockwise relative to the anticyclone until 

the anticyclone moves over the Mexico slope. The deep cyclone does not move up over 

the slope, but is trapped by the bottom bathymetry below 3300 meters and decays rapidly 

(Figure 24). Although some of the upper layer anticyclones split in the model, the deep 

cyclones associated with them did not split. The deep cyclones remained coupled with the 

portion of the rings that moved toward the southwest. 

This study suggests that the deep cyclone and surface anticyclone do not become 

decoupled as they migrate westward, but that they move relative to each other and that 

the deep cyclone appears to move faster than the surface anticyclone when measured at 

certain locations along the migration path. Because the deep cyclones all follow nearly 

the same path, it appears that they are guided by the bottom bathymetry, while factors 

controlling the migration paths of the surface anticyclone are more complex, and they do 

not appear to be dominated by the bottom bathymetry. 
69 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 2550.OM LEVEL =12 DAY=2040 

28N 

UVH12Y9 

. . . . . . . . ., . 

Y 

ir- 1 '~ //~ \» ~ 

-- - - ~ -~ r - . . 

r 

\t~il 1} l<<< 

24N r/ i " I \~--r tli~ 

/I I 

90w e8w 86w e4w 

0.000E+00 0.182E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 4.162 TO 4.19 BY .002 - 

Minimum Vector 1lazimum Vector 

Figure 21 a. Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model on day 2040 . 
70 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 2550 .OM LEVEL =12 DAY=2070 

28 

26 

24 

UVH12Y9 

N --

. . ., . . . , . .r --_

. . 

. . . . . . . . . ., . . . . 

. 

. . . . . ---- -- ~~ _ . . . .t 

, . . . . . . . . f~ . . .r i 

1. 

~\~1~-, . . . " 

.  . .~ . . . . . . . . 

0 . . . 

j~ - ., . . 

rr~~ ,ll 

-~-

i 

90w e8w 86w e4w 

O.OOOEt00 0 .15E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 4.166 TO 4.196 BY .002 - 30 

1[inimum Vector Maximum Vector 

Figure 21b. Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model on day 2070. 
71 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 2550.OM LEVEL =12 DAY=2100 

UVH12Y9 

28N 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . -- ~ , 

. . ° ' I !I 

j , . . ,, r,, . . . . . . . . _ . . ., ~ , __ 

. . . . . . . . . 

24N , . . . .~ . ., . . i 

. . ._  . . -- --, 

. . ., i 

. . . 

i 

90w e8w 86w e4w 

0.000E+00 0.149E+02 CONTOUR FROM 4.166 TO 4.2 BY .002 -> 

Minimum Vector YaTdmum Vector 

Figure 21c. Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

eastern Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model on day 2100 . 
Ow &L L G4 1565m 

-" - i/Ifr~`` --^ G5 2364m 

I Al AMC! 

p ~~-~ ~~\~ ^Y~ "'T ~G6 3174m 

w 

o 

-20 r 

-30 

Formation of Formation of 

eoo Eddy B Eddy C Position of Loop 

goo Current Front on 

zoo SOOP Transact 

o 

-~°° 

-goo 

2oo ryo 3oo 35o 4oo 4eo 5oo No eoo e5o 7oo M No 

MX !(1 OCT NOV DEC .Mw FE! MA MR MY AM AT AUG SET OCT NW DEC JAN Fm M 

.MINI DOTS ItN I!0! 1906 

MT 200 if 7/IVIlN WTER11 Q0.F 7-ply DEEP CIIMEMT! 

N 

Figure 22. Seven-DLP stick vectors from Mooring G in the eastern Gulf of Mexico at 1565 m, 2364 m, and 

3174 m. The periods of formation and shedding of rings Eddy B and Eddy C are indicated 

(from Hamilton 1990). 
73 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 2550.OM LEVEL =12 DAY=2130 

UVH12Y9 2BN 

. . 

. . .~-~r 

+ttr. " _~~~ ~ 

-- 

11 ~~ 

r /// 

`` 

24N 

ri i \,\ / 

~ ~ f ~1 

I 

90W 88W 86W 84W 

0 .000E+00 0 .828E+01 CONTOUR FROM 4.162 TO 4.196 BY .002 310 

Ylnimum Vector lla3dmum Vector 

Figure 23a. Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

central Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model on day 2130. 
74 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 2550.OM LEVEL =12 DAY=2160 

28N 

26N 

24N 

UVH12Y9 

. . .,_ 

----

~d,v~ 

- - ----------- 

.j 

~~//!! 111 . . . . Q 

// I 11\ i f ` 

i 

90w eew e6w e4w 

0.000E+00 0.110E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 4 .164 TO 4.19 BY .002 - 

Minimum Vector Ya3dmum Vector 

Figure 23b. Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

central Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model on day 2160. 
75 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 2550.OM LEVEL =12 DAY=2190 

28N 

26N 

24N 

UVH12Y10 

. . . . . . .~ >- ~~~ . 

r 

._ . . . . . . . . ., . . _ ., ._ .f Ji-~\ 1~ . ., 

----------- - 

" ~1 '1~c- " /~ ll . . . 

----- -- 

~ 

f t ~ t " \ \ 

rr j , ~l lJ'/ / l ~ ~ 

90W BBW 86W MW 

0.000E+00 0.134E+02 

CONTOUR FROM 4.164 TO 4.186 BY .002 30 

1Linimum Vector Maximum Vector 

Figure 23c. Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

central Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model on day 2190. 
76 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 2550.OM LEVEL =12 DAY=2220 

UVH12Y10 

28N 

. . 

. . . . . . . . . . . ., . . . . . . 

. . . . . . 

., 

/ 26N -r- --~~~------, . .- l/ -~\> 

t i>>~ ,l 

. .~ ~ . ._ . . . ._ . . . . . ~` ~ { ' jL 

., . . . --------- - -- ~ \~~ - " ! 1t 

, . .---------- - -- - 

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

1 ~ y ~ ` 1 \ 1 I , ` ' 

24N 

1~ i . . . . . 

,. - . , . 

90W 88W 88W 84W 

CONTOUR FROM 4.16 TO 4.184 BY .002 0.000E+00 0.188E+02 

1lfnimum Vector Maximum Vector 

Figure 23d. Level 12 (2550 m) temperature and velocity fields for the 

central Gulf of Mexico for the present-day seasonally forced 

model on day 2200. 
77 

330 A 

t 150 120 

1 A A 90 

180 A A 60 300 'A;! 270 L-L-~ ~ A 

210A\ 

360 A CC 

C 240 

-1

;"~ 

~ I A -C 

A 

330 300 

270 

3450 m 

187 .5 m 

37.5 m 

Figure 24a. Model migration paths and days of observations for surface 

anticyclones 'A' and deep cyclones 'C' for ring S 10. 
78 

- 

330 300 

A A 

'-mar 360 A-C 

390A 

420 A ~C 270 A A 

C 240 

C 

I 

A 

C 450 

I A / A 510 480 

600 570 p` 540 

3450 m 

187.5 m 

37.5 m 

Figure 24b. Model migration paths and days of observations for surface 

anticyclones 'A' and deep cyclones 'C' for ring S 11 . 
79 

540 510 

A A` 

570 A~ A450 

600 480 

A ~C 

C 

C C/ 

630 

660 690 

840 A 'C A 1 A 720 

810 780 750 

3450 m 

187.5 m 3~~5 m 

Figure 24c. Model migration paths and days of observations for surface 

anticyclones 'A' and deep cyclones 'C' for ring S 12. 
80 

- 

960 

-A 

930 p 

990 750 720 

A A 690 

780 

870 840 810 A\ '~x 

660 

900 -'---A A ~ A 

~ 

~ 

630 

1020 A--~-~ C C /C ~ 

7~~ I \ )1A 870 

990 A 930 96 ~ 900 

3450 m - 

187.5 m 37.5 m 

Figure 24d. Model migration paths and days of observations for surface 

anticyclones 'A' and deep cyclones 'C' for ring S 13 . 
81 

CHAPTER 4 

LAST GLACIAL MAXIMUM SIMULATIONS 

4.1 Introduction 

There are many unknowns in modeling the circulation of past oceans . Therefore 

model verification needs to be done using the present-day circulation. To develop a 

model of a past system, we assume that the physical processes in the model remained the 

same, although the boundary conditions may be quite different. The past boundary 

conditions to be used in the paleo-circulation models should incorporate as much correct 

information as possible so they will best represent the past environment. Configuring the 

present-day model of the GOM for glacial environmental conditions required a new 

model grid representing the lowstand in eustatic sea level and changes in the surface 

temperature forcing, wind forcing, and volume flux through the Yucatan Channel . 

Details of all the forcing fields are described in greater detail in the following section. 

4.2 Model Description 

4.2 .1 Model Grid 

The GOM may have experienced as many as four eustatic sea-level oscillations 

during the last 100,000 years (Morton and Price 1987). The last sea-level cycle began 

with the Middle-Wisconsin high sea level estimated at 50,000-30,000 years B.P. (Morton 

and Price 1987) . During the late Wisconsin glacial maximum, approximately 18,000 

years B.P ., sea level was at a lowstand and the Laurentide ice sheet over North America 

was at its greatest extent (Leventeer et al . 1982). Previous studies to determine relative 

sea-level change considered the biostratigraphy of planktonic foraminiferal assemblages 

from sediment cores, carbon and oxygen isotope analysis of sediment cores and seismic 

stratigraphy (Morton and Price 1987). The values of sea-level lowering for the GOM 

range from -140 m to -80 m (Bloom 1983). Suter et al . (1987) determined that sea level 

fell to the depth of the present shelf break (-120 to -130 m) by looking at buried fluvial 

systems and deltaic deposits at the shelf margin along the northern coast of the GOM. 

Fairbanks (1989) reported that sea level was 121f5 m below present during the 

LGM based on the Barbados sea level curve, which was constructed by measuring the 

radiocarbon age and depth below present sea level of the Caribbean reef-crest coral 

Acropora palmata. Fairbanks (1989) had to take into account the apparent age of the sea 

water at Barbados and the late Quaternary mean uplift of Barbados. Another coral, 

Porites asteroides, sampled at 124 m below present sea level was determined to be 

18,200 years old (Fairbanks 1989) . The sea level lowering of -124 m was chosen for this 

study, which is the same value estimated by Curray (1965) for the GOM. 

A new model grid was created to accommodate the drop in sea level. In order to 

continue using equally-spaced levels in the vertical, the number of levels had to be 
82 

increased from 15 to 16. The top 6 levels were changed from a thickness of 75 m to 80 m 

and the lower 10 levels remain 300-m thick. The total depth of the model grid is now 

3480 m, which extends the deepest depth to four meters below the present-day grid . The 

new grid is illustrated in Figure 25 in which the present-day coastline is indicated for 

comparison . Since the GOM features broad, gently sloping shelves, the surface area of 

the GOM is dramatically reduced. This drop in sea level causes the shelves to nearly 

disappear, which is important in terms of air-sea exchanges of heat, momentum and 

moisture as well as biological productivity and sediment transport. 

Although the numerical model code used in the present-day circulation study is 

used with few parameter changes, the viscosity and diffusivity had to be increased . Due 

to sea level lowering, the continental shelves essentially disappear in the LGM model 

grid and the upper six model levels, which are 80-m thick, impinge on the steep 

continental slope. The combination of high vertical resolution and steep topography 

causes topographically-induced numerical instabilities in the model . Although two 

additional passes of a double Harming filter were used in particularly steep regions of the 

model grid in the upper 400 m, the viscosity and diffusivity had to be increased to 100 

m2~s-' each. The LGM model friction is 33% higher than the present-day seasonal 

simulation. 

4.2 .2 Wind Forcing 

The wind stress estimates used to force the LGM simulations were derived from 

the atmospheric general circulation model of Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) . In their 

study, the community climate model of the National Center for Atmospheric Research 

was configured to represent glacial maximum through interglacial environmental 

conditions . Changes in the following orbital parameters were incorporated in their 

model : date of perihelion, axial tilt and eccentricity . The effects of ice sheets, land 

albedo, sea ice and SST were included in the model's lower boundary conditions . The 

surface temperature field was derived from CLIMAP and perpetual January and perpetual 

July conditions were simulated. Although the model uses spectral representation of the 

horizontal atmospheric fields at nine levels in the vertical, the model fields are 

transformed into rectilinear coordinates and made available on a 4 .4° by 7.5° grid in 

latitude and longitude, respectively . The glacial winds are interpolated to the model grid 

using an IMSL (1989) two-dimensional quadratic interpolation algorithm. 

The LGM wind stress estimates are very different from the present-day wind 

fields over the GOM. A comparison of the Sverdrup volume transport in the GOM 

computed using present-day and LGM wind stress estimates was made to predict how the 

circulation in the GOM might have changed based solely on differences in the wind 

fields . The present-day wind-driven circulation is discussed first and then the predicted 

wind-driven circulation for the LGM is described. 

The direction of the present-day winter wind stress is northeasterly over most of 

the GOM, except over the Campeche Basin where the winds are northerly (Figure 26). 

The magnitude of the winter wind stress is fairly uniform over most of the GOM with 
83 

30N 

.~ . ~ ' 

r ` ti 

~1 .`. j 

i 

1 

t 

~- 

_.._ 

LL-.r~ ' 

- _. .._ ...~. ~ 

i 

.. 

94w 80W 

Depths (m): 40 ., 1230., 3030. 

Figure 25. The last glacial maximum model grid . Solid lines represent 

model grid levels . Stippled line represents present-day 

observed coastline. 
84 

CONTOUR FROM .05 TO 1.1 BY .05 0.735E-01 0.110E+01 

DYNES ~ 

CM-2 Minimum Vector Maximum Vector 

Figure 26. Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) January wind stress field 

interpolated to 1/8° grid. 
85 

maximum values found over the southern Straits of Florida. The present-day Sverdrup 

volume transport for the GOM computed using the Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) 

January wind stress indicates potential for a weak western boundary current along the 

Texas coast of 4 .0 Sv and a broad return flow region over the entire northern GOM 

(Figure 27). There is also potential for a cyclonic gyre (1 .25 Sv) in the Campeche Basin. 

The present-day July wind field is characterized by mainly southeasterly winds in 

the northern GOM and easterly winds near the Yucatan peninsula and in the Campeche 

Bay (Figure 28). The strongest winds are in the northwestern GOM and very weak winds 

are observed over the northern part of the west Florida Shelf. The curl of the wind stress 

is greater in July and results in a stronger WBC from 21 °N to the northern boundary with 

maximum transport of 5 .75 Sv and a return flow region that reaches the west Florida shelf 

(Figure 29) . There is potential for a very weak cyclonic gyre ( .75 Sv) in the Campeche 

Basin. These Sverdrup volume transport calculations are in keeping with the findings of 

Sturges and Blaha (1976), Sturges (1994), and the present-day seasonal simulations 

discussed in the previous section. 

The LGM wind field computed by Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) is much stronger 

than the present and shows greater seasonal variability. The LGM winter wind field was 

characterized by northeasterly winds over the Yucatan Peninsula with a maximum 

magnitude of 1 .4 dynes~cm z along the western coast compared to .6 dynes-cm-2 for the 

present-day January wind field (Figure 30) . The potential existed for upwelling along the 

northern and western Yucatan coast. The westerlies were displaced southward during the 

LGM winter and the northern half of the glacial GOM is also subject to upwelling 

favorable winds. The Sverdrup volume transport computed with the LGM winter winds 

indicates that a strong WBC (8 Sv) originated in the Campeche Basin (Figure 31). 

Weaker zonal bands of anticyclonic circulation are predicted for the northern GOM, but 

no organized WBC is predicted for the northern half of the basin. 

The summer LGM wind field was similar in direction to the present-day wind 

stress field, but the magnitudes were much stronger (more than double in some areas) and 

the pattern of wind stress magnitude contrasts the present-day pattern (Figure 32). 

Easterly winds in the Campeche Bay during the present-day summer have a maximum 

magnitude of less than .7 dynes-CM-2 . During the LGM summer very strong northeasterly 

winds were present in the Campeche Bay with a maximum magnitude of nearly 1 .8 

dynes-cm z. The western Yucatan Coast was subject to more intense upwelling favorable 

winds in the LGM summer than during the LGM winter . There are very weak 

southeasterly winds over the present-day northeastern GOM for July, in contrast to very 

strong easterly winds during the LGM. During the LGM summer there was potential for 

a strong WBC to originate in the Campeche Basin, as in the LGM winter (Figure 33). 

The Sverdrup calculations predict a northern GOM characterized by alternating bands of 

cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation. 
86 

--- -o --------- - 

=-i'== 

-----` o - -- - --------------- - -- 

-4i1lS3~ii ti1-2 ~~~ =====-1__=:; - ;~ 

5~ 

r -4 

--- `, `, ,, 

'. 

-------- -4 _-- 

-2 -1 

~ ~ . . . . . . . . . . ~_J . .

. . 

--- --- -- 

. . . . . . . 

.. . 

CONTOUR FROM -5 .75 TO .75 BY .25 

SVERDRUPS 

Figure 27. Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed using 

Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) January wind stress field. 
87 

< < t  . . , 

. .35 

,-29_25 

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 

- - - - - - - - - - - - 

- - - - - - - - - - - - _ .50L 

. . , , , ~ -i - - - - - - - - - - - - 

~ .25 ~ ~ .50 _ ` - - - - 

- - - - - 

-.ate 

-+--- 

. . '\25~ - - -t 

- - - - - - - - - - - -

.75 

..- .- .-- " -~ "-- .6G 

CONTOUR FROM .05 TO 1 .15 BY .05 0.281E-01 0.118E+01 

Minimum Vector Marimum Vector 

DYNES ~ 

CM -2 

Figure 28. Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) July wind stress field 

interpolated to 1/8° grid. 
88 

______ _____ _ ~~--------------- .` - 

o --_:_=- 

__ 

~ . , 

-- ------- - ------------- - ----------- ---------------- - - -

------------- 

1 , ; `~ `1 

----- ------------------------ 

--- -- ---------- 

-, 

------------ 

- 

--- -, 

~~ 

\1 

---- - _-_'~ ----- -____ -_ -- - - --T 

CONTOUR FROM -4 TO 1 .25 BY .25 

SVERDRUPS 

Figure 29 . Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed 

using Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) July wind stress field. 
89 

CONTOUR FROM .1 TO 2.5 BY .1 0.100E-01 0254E+01 

Minimum Vector Maximum Vector 

DYNES ~ CM-Z 

Figure 30. January wind stress field for 18 ka computed by Kutzbach and 

Guetter (1985) glacial atmospheric general circulation model . 
90 

_- 

------------------- 

-o 

0 

_ _Z~~__ 

. . . . . . . . . . . . 

;SaJ i ~~ 

i-4~ 0 

~ 

\ 1 1 ,I 1 ` I 

,\ ~1 . I CONTOUR FROM -9.6 TO 0 BY .4 

SVERBRUPS 

Figure 31 . Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed 

using Kutzbach and Guetter (1985) January glacial wind 

stress estimates. 
91 

A. N. 

. . . . . . - - - - - - - -- ie 

- ' -. 5- 

- - 

_ 1-0 

1 .0 

5 

-.- 

r r r r i 

1 .5 

i . , 

.- .~ .~ .~ i . . . , . . .5 . . 

r r! ri ~~ e ----- 

.rsr .1 .~ .~ r i x .o. . . . . . . , 

/ 

CONTOUR FROM .3 TO 1 .8 BY .1 0.225E+00 0.185E+01 

Minimum Vector Ma-ximum Vector 

DYNES ~ 

CM-2 

Figure 32. July wind stress field for 18 ka computed by Kutzbach and 

Guetter (1985) glacial atmospheric general circulation model. 
92 

=-_====---=__-_-=------~ 

.~a 

._, .- -- ----^--------- t -' 

- 

0 

2.5 

2.5 

--~ 0 

5.0 2 .5 

_- 

Stf tlraf '7T~~3J-E ti ~? 

i 

l 

1 1 1 1 

I 1 , 1 I I ~ I ~ ; I I ~ I 

iO 1 

0 

V 

CONTOUR FROM -10 TO 6 BY .5 

SVERDRUPS 

Figure 33 . Sverdrup volume transport for the Gulf of Mexico computed 

using Kutzbach and Guetter (1985) July glacial wind 

stress estimates. 
93 

4.2 .3 Sea-Surface Temperature 

The CLIMAP SST for the LGM are used for the surface boundary condition on 

temperature. The CLIMAP data was created using sophisticated statistical techniques to 

infer glacial SST from abundance counts of fossil planktonic foraminifera found in the 

deep-sea sediments (CLIMAP 1981). These temperature estimates have been found by 

some authors to be too warm in the low latitudes (Rind and Peteet 1985), but the 

CLIMAP data is chosen for this study because it presently has the best spatial resolution 

and geographic coverage available for the GOM. The effect of using cooler SST values 

could also be analyzed using this numerical model, but the original CLIMAP values are 

used. 

The CLIMAP data is available on a 2° grid and then extrapolated to the model 

coastline and interpolated to 1/s° using the IMSL (1989) two-dimensional quadratic 

interpolation algorithm and smoothed using a Harming filter . Since the CLIMAP data 

represents true surface values, a constant was subtracted from each data point to compute 

the temperature field at the midpoint of the uppermost level (40 m) in the model. The 

constant was equal to the area-average decrease in temperature from the surface to 40 m 

for the Levitus data, which was 2 .0°C for summer and .7°C for winter. 

This next section compares the present-day and LGM estimates of SST in an 

effort to forecast differences in the surface circulation in the GOM that are related to 

lateral gradients in temperature. Both present and LGM winter temperature fields feature 

a north-south temperature gradient in the northern GOM that would result from 

wintertime atmospheric cooling (Figure 34). The maximum temperatures are nearly 5°C 

lower than present in the western Caribbean. Cooler temperatures along the eastern 

Yucatan Coast in both the present and LGM suggest upwelling along the western side of 

the Yucatan Current. The winter CLIMAP data has minimum temperatures less than 1 °C 

lower than the present in the western GOM, and a large anticyclonic gyre is indicated in 

the western GOM that is not indicated by the present SST field. 

The present-day and LGM summer SST fields are qualitatively similar (Figure 

35) . The temperature gradients are oriented more meridionally in the western and central 

Gulf in the summer than winter for both present and LGM. Although the present-day 

high temperatures are located on the extreme eastern and western boundaries of the 

GOM, the maximum temperatures in the LGM occur in the center of the large 

anticyclonic gyre in the western GOM. Both summer and winter CLIMAP SST fields 

indicate that there is a source of warm surface waters to the western GOM. It may be 

inferred from the gradient in temperature and salinity oriented toward the perimeter of the 

basin that a large anticyclonic circulation cell existed in the western basin. It is important 

to note that although the glacial temperature estimates represent a given season, the 

sampling interval within the sediment core can encompass a span of hundreds to 

thousands of years. The anticyclonic circulation inferred from the glacial estimates of 

temperature and salinity may not be due to a single persistent circulation feature, but 

could be due to a composite of smaller scale processes averaged over time. The seasonal 

averages presented in a later section are computed for only four years of model output . 
94 

LEVEL = 1 

..: - ., 

zz~5 

.s `"`1". 

~....+~ 

C\2 

22.5 I 

20,0 

z -- 

22.5 25 .0 

.. 

~`i. 

z 

o --

96W 92W 88W 84W 80W 

DEGREES CELCIUS CONTOUR FROM 17 .5 TO 28 BY .5 

Figure 34a. Winter sea-surface temperature for the Gulf of Mexico from 

Levitus seasonal mean climatology (1982) . 
95 

z 

z 

20 

1 

z 

---~ti--

..-- 

~ i 

o 

.. 

_--------=_ - ' -------~__-- -----------------

_ 

100W 96W 92W 88W 84W 80W 

DEGREES CELCIUS CONTOUR FROM 19 .25 TO 24.75 BY .25 

Figure 34b. Winter sea-surface temperature for the Gulf of Mexico from 

CLIMAP estimates (1976) for 18,000 years B.P. 
96 

LEVEL = 1 

28 .5 

z ---------------- 

28 .5 .' 

29.0 - lJ 

28 .5 

.~ 29 .5 '. 29.0 

C~2 29.0 

28 .5 28.5 29.0 

~q--

.

.

. 28 .0 . .' ` 29 .0 W-~~2 9.0~ 

O ------= -- ~ - -- - ----- - - -- - -- --- ---- --------i-- -- - - - --------- y f 

^ 

28 .5 z8 .5 I / 

29.0 

28.5 

.. 

96W 92W 88W 84W 80W 

DEGREES CELCIUS CONTOUR FROM 27 .4 TO 29 .9 BY .1 

Figure 35a. Summer sea-surface temperature for the Gulf of Mexico from 

Levitus seasonal mean climatology (1982) . 
97 

z C`7 ` 

~- v 

z 

00 

~, .5 '?-= 

... . 

z 

o ------------~-- ------~--"---------~=---- --------

.,.. 

100W 96W 92W 88W 84W 80W 

CONTOUR FROM 24.6 TO 28.1 BY .1 

Figure 35b. Summer sea-surface temperature for the Gulf of Mexico from 

CLIMAP estimates (1976) for 18,000 years B.P . 
98 

4 .2 .4 Geostrophic Forcing 

Forcing the inflow through the Yucatan Channel from the Caribbean is an integral 

part of this modeling study. The present-day inflow condition is based on measurements 

of the volume transport through the Florida Straits (SAIC 1992; Schott et al . 1988) and 

temperature-partitioning analysis of hydrographic data in the North Atlantic (Schmitz et 

al . 1992). The purpose for relaxing the temperature and salinities along a north-south 

vertical transect in the western Caribbean is to approximate the baroclinic shear 

corresponding to the observed geostrophic flow, and thus simulating the observed 

contributions of the individual water masses. 

Without direct estimates of the LGM volume transport through the Florida Straits 

or a quantitative model of the global thermohaline circulation during the LGM, how can 

the correct inflow condition be specified? This modeling study does not attempt to define 

an optimum inflow condition for the LGM . Instead, two extreme inflow conditions are 

assumed that represent minimum and maximum estimated volume transports through the 

Florida Straits during the LGM. The two inflow conditions used to force the model are 

based on the present-day observed transport of the Florida Current, the sources of the 

Florida Current, the present-day and LGM wind field and the change in sill depths and 

widths of the passages into the Caribbean. Details of the method used to derive the 

minimum inflow condition are presented in Appendix B . 

The LGM simulations are divided into two cases featuring the two extreme inflow 

conditions through the Yucatan Channel. The low transport case uses the minimum 

inflow condition based on the lower than present-day annual average wind-driven 

component of the Florida Current during the LGM (see Appendix B). The present-day 

annual average wind-driven component of the Florida Current is 17-18 Sv and annual 

average for the LGM is 12 Sv, which is a reduction of 33%. The minimum inflow 

condition is achieved by targeting the volume transport through the Yucatan Channel to 

attain an annual average equal to 67% of the annual mean volume transport of 28 Sv used 

in the present-day seasonal simulations. Therefore, the target annual mean volume 

transport through the Yucatan Channel in the LGM simulations for the low transport case 

is 19 Sv . 

The maximum inflow condition is set equal to the present-day annual mean 

transport of the Florida Current. This condition can be justified, although some previous 

studies suggested stronger inflow into the Caribbean (e .g ., Brunner and Cooley 1976; 

Brunner 1982; Brunner 1986) . The intensity of the LGM trade winds over the Atlantic 

was stronger than present, which would likely have resulted in a stronger equatorial 

current system. However, there is no evidence that volume transport into the Caribbean 

increased (Lautenschlager et al . 1992) . Due to the fall in sea level the sill depths of the 

passages were shallower and the passages were narrower, which would require much 

higher velocities through the passages to produce the same volume transport as present. 

The LGM high volume transport case uses the maximum inflow condition, which is 

achieved by setting the target annual mean volume transport through the Yucatan 

Channel to approximately 28 Sv . 
99 

4 .3 High-Volume Transport Case 

The amount of u-velocity added in the Caribbean was greatly increased in the 

high volume transport case because the cross-sectional area of forcing region and of the 

Yucatan Channel were smaller and larger velocities were required to produce a volume 

transport equal to the present-day model simulations. During the four years of model 

spin-up, an annual average volume transport of 28 .4 Sv through the Straits of Florida was 

achieved. This is slightly higher than the annual average of 27.71 Sv from the presentday simulation . 

4.3 .1 Loop Current Rings 

After 4 years of model spin-up, four years of model simulations were made with 

high transport and during this time there were eight rings shed by the LC, of which six 

entire life spans were observed (refer to Table 1) . Although the LC appears to be more 

constrained by the coastline in the LGM simulations, the process of ring separation is not 

much different than the present. The geographic location of the ring separations is the 

same, as well as the 30-week ring-separation period. These results seem reasonable since 

the bottom bathymetry below 124 m for the present-day is unchanged from the LGM 

bathymetry and the volume transport for the LGM high transport case is unchanged from 

the present-day simulations. 

Several characteristics of the six rings are summarized in Table 3. A comparison 

of Table 2 and Table 3 indicates that the LGM rings in the high-transport case are slightly 

smaller, slightly faster and have a slightly longer life span that the present-day rings. The 

migration paths of the LGM rings are somewhat different in the high-transport case, 

which may help explain the longer life spans. Of the six migration paths observed, there 

appeared to be only two main routes (Figure 36). The southerly route is very similar to 

the present-day migration path 1 and the northerly route is like the present-day migration 

path 3 . Both of the rings that followed the northerly route partially merged with rings 

that were already present in the northwest GOM, as occurs in the present-day simulation . 

Unlike the present-day case where all rings following migration path 2 were likely to 

split, the only ring to split in the high-transport case was following the northerly route. 

The fact that only one ring splits and that the timing and location of the event were 

different from the present-day case, may be partly influenced by the higher eddy viscosity 

in the LGM simulations. 

Once the rings reach the western wall in the LGM high transport simulations they 

all move along the Mexico slope into the northwest corner, but not as rapidly as in the 

present-day case. All rings decay in the northwest corner and none are advected eastward 

in the shelf break current as in the present-day case. Also no model rings decay over the 

Mexico slope as occurs in the present-day simulation . All these factors contribute to the 

longer life spans of the rings in the high-transport case of the LGM simulations . Since 

the rings have longer life spans and similar shedding frequency, there are more rings in 
100 

Table 3 . Characteristics of model Loop Current rings for the LGM high transport case . 

Migration Time to Ring 

Ring Size' Speed W. Wall2 Lifespan Interaction 

(km) (km d~') (cm s'') (days) (days) 

H1 360 4 .22 4.88 210 385 none 

H2 340 4 .24 4.90 231 483 none 

H3 340 3 .90 4.52 252 294 none 

H4 340 4 .55 5 .26 294 483 split 

H5 340 4 .18 4.84 294 315 none 

H6 376 4 .90 5 .68 168 315 merge 

H7 346 

Mean 349 4 .33 5 .01 242 380 

Std. dev. 14.0 0.35 0.40 49.2 86.1 

' Approximate diameter in the eastern GOM. Meaxured by taking an average of the 

north-south and east-west dimensions of each ring. 

z Time to western wall is a visual estimate of the number of days that each ring took from 

just after separation to reach the outer shelf of the Mexico or Texas coast. The arrival of 

the ring at the western wall is characterized by some deformation of the ring, typically 

marked by a north-south elongation of the ring. 
101 

_ 

6 4 6 

.- 

/2 

3 

5 

Figure 36. Model migration paths of Loop Current rings H1-H6 during 

the four-year simulation of the LGM high transport case. 
102 

the western GOM at one time than the present. The presence of the rings and the induced 

circulation associated with the rings, such as eddy-pairs, results in a western GOM 

characterized by more eddy activity than the present-day (Figure 37). 

It should be noted that the density shear of the LC is derived from forcing with 

the present-day hydrographic data, we therefore do not attempt to verify vertical structure 

of the LGM rings, for which no observations are available. However, the temporal 

changes in the vertical structure of the rings may be worth noting, since the surface wind 

stress during the LGM was much greater and presumably resulted in a deeper mixed 

layer. Vertical cross-sections through the centers of rings H2 and H3 show that the high 

salinity core is present in the LC at approximately 200-m depth, although it is less saline 

than present (Figure 38). The high salinity core of ring H3 degrades rapidly, which is 

accompanied by a flattening of the isohalines, and is almost gone by the time the ring 

reaches the central GOM (Figure 38). Vertical cross-sections of temperature through the 

centers of H2 and H3 show similar structure to present-day rings, although the isotherms 

in the upper 200 m flatten-out to a greater degree than observed today (Figure 39). 

4.3 .2 General Circulation 

The circulation in the eastern GOM during the LGM is dominated by the 

boundary fluctuations and ring separation process of the LC as occurs in the present-day 

GOM. As mentioned previously the LC behaved much like today and rings separate in 

approximately the same location with the same frequency. The more vigorous forcing for 

the high volume transport case resulted in higher velocities with depth in the Yucatan 

Current, LC and rings. Upwelling occurs along the eastern side of the Yucatan Peninsula 

as seen in the present-day simulations due to the strong velocities in the Yucatan Current 

impinging on the Yucatan Slope. The upwelling causes the western branch of the LC to 

be much cooler than the warmer surface waters of the central GOM during summer and 

can result in a ring that is cooler than the surrounding water at the surface (Figure 40) . 

The volume transport of the Florida Current ranges from 26.5 Sv to 30.5 Sv with 

a minimum in the summer and a maximum in the winter (Figure 41) . This seasonal 

fluctuation in volume transport is out of phase with the present-day cycle which has its 

maximum in June. 

The surface area of the eastern GOM was greatly diminished during the LGM 

because of the disappearance of the west Florida Shelf. The Dry Tortugas and Florida 

Keys become merged with the Florida Peninsula and the land boundary of Cuba is 

extended northward to create a relatively long and narrow southern Straits of Florida. 

The Tortugas gyre forms in the LGM simulation when the LC is fully extended as it does 

in the present-day simulation, but the narrowing of the southern Straits of Florida causes 

it to decay very rapidly after a ring has separated from the LC. The surface currents in 

the northeast GOM are weak and variable and appear to be strongly influenced by the 

boundary fluctuations in the LC. 

The western GOM exhibits the greatest changes in circulation compared to the 

present. As already noted, there is a greater degree of eddy activity, but there are some 
103 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 40.OM LEVEL = 1 DAY = 360 

zex . . . . . . . . . . 

26N 

~ f~f . r J ff-~\} } 

r~i gill ~ .~ 

24N 

` ~ - , ..- ~Y/l." - \ 

22N - 

r 

.. ... i . 

W

... ... .... ... 

" 

18N 

t ~ ,_ 23 

96W 94W 92W 9011 8811 981Y 84W 8211 

0.275E+00 0.110E+03 

CONTOUR FROM 21.25 TO 25 BY .25 

1(inimum Vector Maximum Vector 

Figure 37. Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM high 

transport case at model day 360 (November) . Ring H2 has just 

separated from the Loop Current. 
104 

SALINITY TRANSECT (PPT - 35) AT 25 .125 N 

LGM03 DAY = 360 .0 

40M 

120M 

200M 

280M 

360M 

440M 

630M 

930M 

1230M 

1530M 

1 .00 

1 .00 

.75 .75 ~-- 

.25 .50 

.50-' 

.25 

~.25 

0 

0 

0 

L-.041 

92.OW 90.OW 88.OW 86.OW 64.09 

CONTOUR FROM 0 TO 1.35 BY .05 

Figure 38a. Vertical cross-section of salinity (ppt-35) from the LGM high 

transport case through the Loop Current and ring H2 at model 

day 360 (November). 
105 

SALINITY TRANSECT (PPT - 35) AT 25 .625 N 

LGM03 DAY = 540.0 

40M 

120M 

200M 

280M 

360M 

440M 

630M 

930M 

1230M 

1530M 

D 

.75 

x.50 .50_ 

.75 

25 .25-

\ --- 

a - 0 

0 

L-.os~ 

92.OW 90.OW 88.OW 86 .OW 84.OW 

CONTOUR FROM 0 TO 1 .35 BY .05 

Figure 38b. Vertical cross-section of salinity (ppt-35) from the LGM high 

transport case through ring H3 on model day 540 (May) . 
106 

TEMPERATURE TRANSECT (CELSIUS) AT 25 .125 N 

LGM03 DAY = 360.0 

40M 

120M 

200M 

280M - 

360M 

15 

440M 15 15 

630M 

10 

10 10 

10 

930M 

1230M 5 

5 

1530M 

92 .OW 90.OW 88.OW 86.OW 84.OW 

CONTOUR FROM 5 TO 23 BY 1 

Figure 39. Vertical cross-section of temperature (°C) from the LGM high 

transport case through ring H2 at day 360 (November). 
107 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 40.OM LEVEL = 1 DAY = 630 

as 

2BN v - 

v ~- 

.8 V 

v 

28N 

a 

0 1, 

1y 

A \ 

l 0 

24N 

s 

C~ 

.e oaf 

^' . 

D 4 \ 

90V1 88A 88qf 84K 

CONTOUR FROM 23.7 TO 28.1 BY .1 

Figure 40. Level 1 (40 m) temperature field in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 

for the LGM high transport case at model day 630 (August). 
108 

29 .8 

29 .6 

29 .4 

29 .2 

4 

29 .0 

ze .s 

28 .6 

a 

0 28 .4 

w 

28 .2 

28 .0 

27 .8 

V 

27 .6 

27 .4 

27 .2 AVERAGE TRANSPORT = 28 .42 

27 .e 

e 2e 40 6e ee 1ee 120 14e 1ee 1e0 2ee 22e 

WEEKS 

Figure 41 . Time series of transport stream function (Sv) in the Florida Straits 

for the high transport case, model years 5-8 . This data was 

processed with a 30-day running mean. 
109 

significant changes in the wind-forced circulation also. Upwelling occurs on the western 

side of the Yucatan Peninsula where the direction of the wind is favorable for upwelling 

throughout the year, but the magnitude of wind stress is nearly twice as large for summer 

as winter (Figures 30 and 32). Although the upwelling is present throughout the year, it 

is weakest in spring, strengthens in summer and is strongest in fall (Figure 42). The 

tongue of upwelled water generally extends westward from the coast at approximately 

22°N where there is a change in the orientation of the coastline. The westward extent of 

the upwelled water is highly influenced by the eddy activity in the region . The upwelled 

waters can nearly reach the slope of Mexico if a ring is present in the western basin 

(Figure 43) or the tongue can be deflected southward into the Campeche Basin along the 

fronts of large anticyclonic eddies . 

Upwelling is also observed in the northwest GOM in winter along the western and 

northern edges of the permanent anticyclone (Figure 42) . Upwelling favorable winds are 

observed here in the winter only and the magnitude of the wind stress is only about onethird of that generated along the western Campeche Coast (Figure 30). 

The circulation in the Campeche Basin is characterized by mesoscale eddies over 

the central and eastern portion. There may be only one large anticyclonic eddy or as 

many as two anticyclones and two cyclones at one time. Although eddy pairs commonly 

occur, a large cyclone by itself is not observed in the model output. Northward currents 

flow along the western boundary of the Campeche basin at all times in agreement with 

the Sverdrup volume transport calculation for the LGM . 

A continuation of the northward current from the Campeche Basin into the 

northern GOM can occur in the LGM simulations, but does not exhibit a seasonal cycle. 

Both the timing and the location of the northern WBC with respect to the coast are 

variable and the northern WBC appears to be generated mainly by the addition of 

anticyclonic vorticity from the rings. A shelf break current occurs along the TexasLouisiana coast and also appears to be dependent on the contribution of anticyclonic 

vorticity from rings. 

The deep circulation in the high transport case is not significantly different than in 

the present-day simulations. The dominant feature of the deep circulation is the cyclonic 

gyre that forms beneath the LC as an eddy is being shed, which migrates westward along 

with the surface signature of the ring . The maximum velocities in the deeper layers are 

less than 20 cm-s-' as observed today, but are generally greater than 14 cm-s-' . Several 

smaller cyclones and anticyclones can be observed as well as the large cyclone. The deep 

motions are vertically coherent, although the depth at which this occurs is slightly deeper . 

4.4 Low-Volume Transport Case 

Lowering the volume transport through the Yucatan Channel was accomplished 

by gradually reducing the amount of u-component of velocity added in the Caribbean. 

Due to the sensitivity of the model to small adjustments in this method of forcing, four 

years of model spin-up time were needed to reach the new target volume transport. The 

annual mean volume transport for the low transport case is 18 .66 Sv through the southern 
110 

TEMPERATURE AND VELOCITY FIELDS AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR WINTER 

28N 

28N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

HIGH TRANSPORT CASE 

., ., 

\-! ill iii 

N 70 

r 

I r i . r / / / 

. . . , . . . . . ~ I 

. . . ~ ~ i 

UVHAVGQI 

98K 94W 92R 901 981Y 

aoooe+oa o.svas+o2 CONTOUR FROM 21 TO 23.75 BY 25 30 

MI-4-um Vector U.Ntmum Vector 

Figure 42a. Four-year average of level 1 (40 m) temperature (°C) and 

velocity (cm s') fields for the LGM high transport case in the 

western Gulf of Mexico during Winter. 
111 

TEMPERATURE AND VELOCITY FIELDS AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SPRING 

HIGH TRANSPORT CASE 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

~ - - - 

i r i s , . . . . t \ 

. . . . . . T 

is t ~ 

41 

r 

. . ~ i 

. , . , . . 

. . , . . , . 

. . , 

UVHAVGQ2 

98W 94X 92R 90W 88W 

0~000E+00 

CONTOUR FROM 23.7 TO 25.8 BY .1 

a~~E+~02 

ylnimum Vector 1lajmum Ysctor 

Figure 42b. Four-year average of level 1 (40 m) temperature (°C) and 

velocity (cm s') fields for the LGM high transport case in the 

western Gulf of Mexico during Spring . 
112 

TEMPERATURE AND VELOCITY FIELDS AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR SUMMER 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

HIGH TRANSPORT CASE 

i wvA-a~~- -- - - ------~ 

i 

~~/./ //i . . . . . . .iii i . . -- --- 

I 1 l ~ ~ i i i i i i i i i r r I 

AJ /~ . . . . . . 

. . i i i 

^,,~ . . . 

. . . 

. . . 

UVHAVGQ3 

98W 94W 92X 90W 881f 

CONTOUR FROM 24.2 TO 28.8 BY .2 O .OOOS+00 0.719E+02 

Minimum v.ocw y.imumv - 

..wr 

Figure 42c. Four-year average of level 1 (40 m) temperature (°C) and 

velocity (cm s') fields for the LGM high transport case in the 

western Gulf of Mexico during Summer. 
113 

TEMPERATURE AND VELOCITY FIELDS AT LEVEL 1 

SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR FALL 

zex 

28N 

24N 

22N 

20N 

HIGH TRANSPORT CASE 

,. _ . . _-

/-~ , 

1J/ \ \ \ 

, ., 

i ~ \ 1 / ~ r I I I , J . i . ~ ~ 

~. ~ i ~ ~. \ \ 1 1 

t ' l 1 - ~ ~ l 1 i 

2, . 

. . 

i 

. . _ ~ i 

UVFiAVGQ4 1 

98w 94X 92X 

O.OOOS+00 

CONTOUR FROM 22.9 TO 25 BY .1 W1.1-um vector 

90W 881f 

0.841E+02 

M-1-um v.ctr 

Figure 42d. Four-year average of level 1 (40 m) temperature (°C) and 

velocity (cm s') fields for the LGM high transport case in the 

western Gulf of Mexico during Fall . 
114 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-') 

DEPTH = 40 .OM LEVEL = 1 DAY = 270 

28N 

26N 

24N 

22N ~ 

20N 

t ~ t ~ ~ t l L ~ ~ - " i / / i 

1 

~i~= - \1 

~~~^ " lll 

'\- 1 \~-- 

98W 94W 92W 90W 

o.saas+oo 

CONTOUR FROM 23.5 TO 28.75 BY .25 wit-im m Y,at,, 

r 

881 

0.930s+ 

Y.~um v.otor 

Figure 43 . Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM 

high transport case in the western Gulf of Mexico at model 

day 270 (August). 
115 

Straits of Florida (Figure 44). The flow through the Caribbean in the high transport case 

is characterized by a well-defined, vigorous current parallel to the South American coast 

which turns northward along the eastern Yucatan coast (Figure 37). In the low flow case 

the inflow forms a broad, relatively weak current (Figure 45), and results in a LC that has 

narrower annulus. 

4.4 .1 Loop Current Rings 

The LC in the low transport case is weaker and narrower than in the high transport 

case . The rings separate in approximately the same location, but the LC reforms farther 

to the south after a ring has separated in the low transport case than in the high transport 

case or the present-day simulations. The characteristics of the low transport rings are 

summarized in Table 4. The low transport rings are only 4.3% smaller than the high 

transport case, while the change in volume transport was nearly one-third. Also the ring 

separation period was only reduced by nearly 7% from 30 weeks to 28 weeks. The 

westward translation speeds for the low transport and high transport cases are nearly 

identical. 

A significant effect of lowering the inflow volume transport was to reduce the 

velocities of both the LC and the rings at all depths. The maximum velocities in the LC 

for the high transport case were 100-120 cm-s-' compared with 80-100 cm-s-' in the low 

transport case. The maximum swirl speeds of the rings at level 1 (40 m) were typically 

70 cm-s-1 in the eastern GOM and 45-50 cm-s-1 in the central GOM for the high transport 

case. For the low transport case the maximum swirl speeds of the rings at level 1 were 

also 70 cm-s-1 in the eastern GOM, but they decreased quickly during westward migration 

and were typically 30-35 cm-s-' in the central GOM. At 200 m the maximum velocities in 

the low transport case compared with the high transport case were nearly 20 cm-s-' 

smaller, at 930 m they were reduced by nearly one-half and at 3330 m (the lowest level) 

they were reduced by more than one-third . 

The effects of lowering the inflow can also be seen in the vertical structure of the 

rings. The vertical structure of the low transport rings is quite different from both the 

present-day observations and the high transport case. Both the isohalines and isotherms 

are much flatter with depth and the divergence of the isotherms with depth is not as great 

in the low transport case (Figure 46) . 

The average life span of the low-transport rings is longer than the high-transport 

rings, which can be explained by the difference in their migration paths. The rings in the 

high transport case followed either a northern migration path or a southern. Each ring 

that followed the northern migration path, which has a shorter distance, quickly merged 

with an older ring that was already in the northwest corner . All rings in the low transport 

case followed the southern migration path and were observed to slowly decay in the 

northwest corner until another ring arrived. The average life span of 451 days for the low 

transport case is three months longer than the average life span of one year observed 

today . This may result from the fact that none of the rings in the low transport case 

interacted with other rings and each ring followed the longest observed migration path. 
116 

20 .4 

20 .2 

20 .0 

19 .8 

19 .6 

19 .4 

19 .2 

19 .e 

a 

18 .8 

0 

w 18 .6 

18 .4 

18 .2 

18 .0 

17 .8 

17 .6 

17 .4 

17 .2 AVERAGE TRANSPORT = 18 .66 

17 .e 

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 

WEEKS 

Figure 44. Time series of transport stream function (Sv) in the Florida 

Straits for the low transport case, model years 13-16 . This 

data was processed with a 30-day running mean. 
117 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-i) 

DEPTH = 40.OM LEVEL = 1 DAY = 450 

zerr 

2BN 

24N 

22N 

iex 

18N 

~-

. .~ . . . . 

1 f " ~" ~-"\, 1 ~ ~ . t / 

~ / r ~ 1 ! ! \ , ~ l i ~ f 1 / 

, ppo\t 

t ~ ~ " ~ r . _ `R ~ i 

----- __ -- --

- - 

- 

i 

... ... .. . .r : = . ." 

-- - -o --

_____ 

96W 94AT 92W 901f 

CONTOUR FROM 22 TO 27.5 BY .5 

88W 881I 841f eZW 

0.119E+00 0.958E+02 

Minimum Vector maximum Vector 

Figure 45. Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM 

low transport case at model day 450 (February) . 
118 

Table 4. Characteristics of model Loop Current rings for the LGM low transport case. 

Migration Time to Ring 

Ring Size ' Speed W. Wall Z Lifespan Interaction 

(km) (km d'') (cm s') (days) (days) 

S 1 320 4 .71 5 .45 180 483 none 

S2 320 4 .16 4.81 252 462 none 

S3 340 4.43 5 .12 180 441 none 

S4 290 4.13 4.78 180 498 none 

S5 360 4 .60 5 .32 180 482 none 

S6 310 4 .55 5 .27 231 371 none 

S7 393 3 .96 4.58 180 

Mean 333 4 .36 5 .05 198 456 

Std. Dev. 34.4 028 0.33 30.6 46.2 

Approximate diameter in the eastern GOM. Measured by taking an average of the 

north-south dimensions of each ring. 

Z Time to western wall is a visual estimate of the number of days that each ring took from 

just after separation to reach the outer shelf of the Mexico or Texas coast. The arrival 

of the ring at the western wall is characterized by some deformation of the ring, 

typically marked by a north-south elongation of the ring. 
119 

TEMPERATURE TRANSECT (CELSIUS) AT 24.875 N 

LGM04 DAY = 450.0 

40M 

120M 

200M 

280M 

360M 

440M 

630M 

15 

1\ \ 15 

.10 

10 

I \ i-1 

930M 

1230M 

1530M 

5 

5 

5 

92.OW 90.OW 88.OW 86.OW 84.01 

CONTOUR FROM 5 TO 26 BY 1 

Figure 46a. Vertical cross-section of temperature through ring L2 in the 

LGM low transport case on model day 450 (February) . 
120 

SALINITY TRANSECT (PPT - 35) AT 24.875 N 

LGM04 DAY = 450.0 

401 

1201 

2001v 

2801v 

360N 

440! 

63014 

930M 

1230M 

1530M 

1.25~ 

Hi.zie 

\\ 1.00 .75 

1 .00 

.50 .50 

.25 

.25 ~~ .25 

0 0 

0 

1- _-T I I 

92 .OW 90.OW 88 .OVP 86.OW 84.OW 

CONTOUR FROM 0 TO 1 .35 BY .05 

Figure 46b. Vertical cross-section of salinity through ring L2 in the LGM 

low transport case on model day 450 (February) . 
121 

4.4 .2 General Circulation 

Most of the general circulation features discussed in the high transport results 

section are not significantly different in the low transport case. A circulation change is 

observed in the eastern GOM which is related to the intensity of the LC. In the low 

transport case the LC is narrower, which places the eastern branch farther offshore and 

creates a larger region between the eastern edge of the LC and the west coast of Florida. 

A larger Tortugas Gyre is generated when the LC overshoots the entrance to the southern 

Straits of Florida and a current extends northward from the eastern side of the gyre along 

the west coast of Florida into the northeast corner (Figure 47). The deep circulation in 

the low transport case is similar to the high transport case, except that the overall 

velocities are smaller. 

4 .5 Discussion 

There are many similarities between the high transport and low transport cases in 

both the general circulation and the formation and structure of the rings. From the two 

simulations with different inflow conditions there is a common picture of a GOM during 

the LGM with a LC system and rings that behave nearly like those observed today, and 

circulation in the deep GOM that resembles the present-day simulations . The features 

that are present in the LGM simulation that are not observed today are a WBC originating 

in the Campeche Bay, upwelling off the western Yucatan Peninsula, upwelling in the 

northwestern GOM, increased eddy activity in the western GOM and variable or 

northward flow off the west coast of Florida. 

Brunner and Cooley (1976) and Brunner (1982) inferred the physical 

oceanographic conditions in the GOM during the LGM from the distribution of glacial 

fauna in deep sea cores. Both Brunner and Cooley (1976) and Brunner (1982) estimated 

surface temperature and salinities for 18,000 years B.P . using multivariate statistical 

analysis on counts of planktonic foraminifera from trigger core tops in the GOM and 

Atlantic Ocean. The LGM temperature pattern in the western GOM is similar in Brunner 

and Cooley (1976) (Figure 48) to the CLIMAP data (Figures 34b and 35b) used to force 

the LGM simulations. The maximum summer CLIMAP temperatures are only .3°C 

warmer in the western GOM than Brunner and Cooley (1976), and the difference in 

maximum winter temperatures is less than .4°C. The eastern GOM is characterized by a 

greater northward intrusion of the LC in summer and winter in Brunner (1982) than the 

CLIMAP data. Also the Brunner (1982) temperature estimates indicate a warmer LC 

than the CLIMAP data. 

All of these LGM temperature estimates suggest a single large gyre existed in the 

western GOM during both summer and winter, and the gyre is centered farther north and 

elongated more in the north-south direction in summer. Brunner and Cooley (1976) also 

present a gyre-like distribution of summer and winter salinities during the LGM, with the 

highest salinities near the margins and low values at the center of the gyre (Figure 49). 
122 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 40 .OM LEVEL = 1 DAY = 180 

. . V , ~~ . . 

zex ` ' ' ' ' ' 

r ~. \ 

1 ~ / 1 1 1 t 1 

i 

28N 

~I o 

24N ~ , ~ \ 2b V 

1 ~ ~ ~ / J " ~ ~s~s 

._ ..- 

- 

-- 

~ ~ ~ i . . . 0 

gow saw 8~W\ 84W 

0.825E+00 0.878E _ 

CONTOUR FROM 24.5 TO 28 BY .25 1(iaixnum Vector Ysrimuat Vector 

Figure 47a. Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM 

low transport casein the eastern Gulf of Mexico on model day 

180 (May). 
123 

TEMPERATURE CONTOURS (°C) AND VELOCITY VECTORS (CM S-1) 

DEPTH = 40 .OM LEVEL = 1 DAY = 270 

0 0 

m 

N 

e 

l 1 1 . . . . . _ . ~ t 

28N 

. . 

i 

i 

i 

24N 

a R 

~r~ f f ~ \ 

` ~ ~ ` ` ~~j 

90X 88X 8 \ ` 841f 

0.200E+00 0.886E+ 2 

CONTOUR FROM 24.1 TO 25.8 BY .1 yi-i-wn Vector M,-imum actor 

Figure 47b . Level 1 (40 m) temperature and velocity fields for the LGM 

low transport casein the eastern Gulf of Mexico on model day 

270 (August). 
124 

SUMMER TEMPERATURE rC) 

Iaooo rer 

PRECISION = 0.1'C 

.26.5 

2_S6 27.0*C 

" 279 

26,7 

" 27.1 

'2h6i 

-272 

25.9` 

" 26.8 

" 26.8 

\ - " 26.8 

WINTER TEMPERATURE ('C) 

Iepoo Yap 

PRECISION = 0.1'C 

. 20.6 

20-1-- .21D'C 

~ 22.1'" 

22.O~C 

20 .9 . 

21 .8 

"2ar, .zz.i 

` " 21 .1 ,217 , 

" 20.6' 

Figure 48. Sea-surface temperature (°C) for 18,000 years b.p . for (a) summer 

with an accuracy of f 1 .1 °C and (b) winter with an accuracy of 

f1 .3°C at an 80% confidence interval (from Brunner and Cooley . 

1976) . 

SUMAAER SALINTY 

Is= yap 

MKISION ± 0 05 Z 

WINTER SALL-41TY 

160W Yap 

RMCISION t Q03 Z 

370 --3702: 

U 

3&8.----362Z 

'5 

" 

'0 

36 .8 z 

8 

Z 

_X6Z 3 6*6 

Z 

36,8 36' 

6 ' 

_ 

368-' 

I 

, 

. , 36 .5 

- 

5 

A3 6.7 "----1&6Z 36,61- 67 1 

1 3&7 ; 

6L 

X8 33 *367 

8 

L 

6L 

. 

L . -3 3&7 7366 

36.7 7 36L6 

5 

3 

L 

9 

IL9 

8, 

3613\ 

9 

36LB . 

. 

X9 

X 

,. 

3676.8 367 

' .

0 

4-370 368~ 

6L8 

X8 3 33&7 6 

Figure 49. Sea-surface salinity (ppt) for 18,000 years b .p . for (a) summer with 

an accuracy of f0.6%o and (b) winter with an accuracy of f0.5%o 

at an 80% confidence interval (from Brunner and Cooley 1976). 
125 

Brunner and Cooley (1976) conclude that anticyclonic circulation must have existed in 

the western GOM during both summer and winter due to the density gradient indicated 

by the glacial temperature and salinity patterns. 

Brunner and Cooley (1976) propose that a large anticyclone existed in the western 

GOM due to an intensified LC resulting from increased volume transport and vertical 

shear of the Yucatan Current. Increased flow through the Yucatan Channel would have 

resulted from increased intensity of the equatorial Atlantic currents due to increased trade 

wind activity (Brunner and Cooley 1976). Brunner and Cooley (1976) offer the 

following models to explain the anticyclonic circulation in the western GOM: (1) 

circulation in the GOM that is the same as the present, but with denser waters, (2) an 

increase in the volume transport and vertical shear of the LC so it could extend farther 

into the eastern GOM and shed rings large enough to nearly fill the western basin, and (3) 

increase the volume transport of the LC even more than the second model, in which case 

it would: "intrude into the western basin in an immense anticyclonic flow, sweeping the 

periphery of the Gulf basin into the narrow Florida Straits to become a major component 

of the Gulf Stream" . 

The hypothesis of greater volume transport entering the GOM during the LGM 

than present was not tested using the LGM model . The consequence of increased 

transport of the LC on the circulation in the GOM as described by Brunner and Cooley 

(1976) is not supported by the rotating tank experiments on the circulation of the GOM 

by Ichiye (1972) . Ichiye (1972) performed a series of experiments whereby he increased 

the velocity and rotation speed of the inflow through the Yucatan Channel by varying the 

Rossby number and Reynolds number of the inflow. Results of only four of the 

experiments were discussed. Ichiye (1972) demonstrated that as the Rossby number and 

Reynolds number of the flow are increased, the region of influence of the LC and 

associated eddies will increase, but the direction of rotation may become cyclonic. The 

LC penetrated into the western GOM only for the case of relatively large values of 

Rossby number and Reynolds number, but the LC flowed counter-clockwise around the 

basin and the largest eddy that was generated north of the Yucatan Channel was cyclonic 

(Ichiye 1972) . 

The estimated temperature and salinity patterns for the LGM can be explained by 

a combination of physical oceanographic process generated by the LGM simulations. 

The temperature gradient extending southward from the center of the western gyre into 

the southern Campeche Basin can be produced by the upwelling off the western Yucatan 

Peninsula, which is strongest in winter and weak in summer. The WBC in the Campeche 

Bay is produced year round in the model as predicted by the Sverdrup volume transport 

calculations . The WBC has an east-west temperature gradient perpendicular to the 

direction of flow that frequently extends northward into the northwest GOM. The northsouth temperature gradient off the slope of northern Texas and Louisiana also is 

observed year-round. This is due to both the decay of rings and the coastal upwelling 

along the Texas-Louisiana coast that is a maximum in LGM winter . The temperature 

maximums near the center of the western basin may be explained by the warm-core rings 

which have longer residence times in the western GOM in the LGM simulations . There 
126 

is a large amount of eddy activity in the western GOM in the LGM simulations and 

closed contours of the western gyre are not a persistent feature. 

The intensity of the Florida Current during the late Quaternary is inferred from 

sedimentary analysis of piston cores made in the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of 

Florida by Brunner (1986) . The cores were divided into Ericson zones based on the 

presence or absence of Globorotalia menardii and Globoratalia inflata (Brunner 1986). 

The X and Z zones approximate the last interglacial and present interglacial respectively 

and the Y zone approximates the last glacial. 

In the central portion of the southern Straits of Florida at approximately 82°W, the 

channel is narrower than the eastern and western portions. Therefore, the axis of the 

current would be most confined by the channel in the central portion. The thickness of 

the biostratigraphic zone Y is much thicker than the biostratigraphic zone Z in the central 

portion of the Straits compared to the eastern and western portions (Figure SOa) . In this 

same section of the channel, the overall proportion of sand-size material is less in the Y 

zone than in the Z zone (Figure SOb) and the overall accumulation rates of silt and claysize material in the Y zone are more than in the Z zone (Figure SOc). According to 

Brunner (1986), all of these factors may indicate a reduction in flow rates in the southern 

Straits because : "sand and silt-rich facies occur in contourite drifts where bottom currents 

are most rapid or close to the sea floor" . 

Brunner (1986) offers an interpretation of the data that attempts to support the 

hypothesis of greater volume transport of LC system resulting from intensification of 

LGM global ocean circulation. Another interpretation of the sediment data in Figure 50 

could signify lower bottom current velocities in the central southern Straits during the 

LGM, which would be the result of lower volume transport of the LC . A comparison is 

made of the current speeds through a north-south vertical cross-section at 82°W in the 

southern Straits of Florida for the present-day seasonal simulation and the LGM low 

transport case (Figure 51). This comparison indicates that although the maximum 

velocities through the section are the same for the present-day simulation and the LGM 

low transport simulation, lower current speeds occur along the channel walls for the case 

with lower total transport. 

There is also some sedimentological evidence in support of lower volume 

transport of the flow entering the Yucatan Channel from the Caribbean during the LGM. 

Brunner (1984) looked at the biostratigraphy and sedimentology of 5 piston cores in the 

Yucatan Channel. Brunner (1984) found that the high sand content of the foraminiferal 

ooze found in the Yucatan Channel indicated current winnowing. Brunner (1984) 

reported that although foraminiferal sands can accumulate if the productivity of the 

surface waters is high, the net sedimentation rates decrease with increasing sand content 

in the Yucatan Channel . Brunner (1984) concluded that percent sand-size material is 

proportional to bottom current velocity in winnowed sediments and that cycles of current 

winnowing may be caused by changes in current transport in response to glacial cycles . 

Out of the 5 piston cores, the net sedimentation rate and percent of sand-size material for 

all of the Ericson zones of the Quaternary were only reported for core number 19 located 

at 23°46.4'N and 86°21 .5'W (Brunner 1984). The average sand content in core 19 (in 
127 

24 

2 i 

nary xe 

m 

d 

.0, ~, ~ua 0 t e m rr 

Z ZONE assemblage 

.o 

25 ~~ goo 

10 1. 28> 1* 0 ~-" 

S 28 

~ 1 053 ~~ 38 

. X95 0 75 20 

., . 93 0 53 t . .` 

45 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ~ . 

f $ 

1 

~\ '.~C U B A~ . 

*mixed 

oo . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .a . . 

Quaternary 

assemblage 

AA* 82° B< 

mixed 

'~ uaternary 

assemblage 

. "" . . 0 O % 

548 

0 

. . . . . . . . . . . . 7 

DO 000-1351e ~, ~~ 

~00 

>330 -1 " 

24' 

>177 

0 - 1 

>4~0 355 j 

~ 

X67 

0 

3100 0 ., 137 

X174 >158 

- 

. .

228 230 

. . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . '. : : ~C U 8 A. : : : : : : : : : : : : 

Y ZONE 

z 

24 

105 X140 

1 

mixed "" 

Quaternary 

assemblage 

~. . . . . . . : . b : . 

es° a 

X ZONE 

24' 

l 

. i mixed 

Quaternary 

assemblage 

11 : " 006 

250 

123 

270 148 120 

111 0 

: CUBA 

:C 

a z2 

'oo T 

110 

i * 

130 

. .

.~00' 

~ 

mixed o0 

Owternarr 

as semCtaqe 

Figure SOa. Thickness (cm) of late Quaternary biostratigraphic zones Z, 

Y, and X (from Brunner and Cooley 1976). 
128 

- i 

'' > eo % 

Z ZONE 25.8 

0k23.6~ 083.5 6.9 

1~ ~f 21 .2 

I 8.0 ~ 

13,2 23 .2I 

14 .6 0 15 .0 14 .6 r00, 0 0 16.7 55.t~5oo° 

0 

131 .7 14 .50 i 14,6 

52 .8 ~ '24-. 

y 20.1 I is 

. .r . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

23 .0 : : :CUBA ~ : : 

27 .1 

60 .7 27.5 " 1 0 `oo 

. . . . . . . ... . . . . . 

22 

16 A a' 82' so' 

2 

Zi 

22 

i 

Y ZONE 

e 

55a ,ooa1 

2e 

i ~: : : :a :-r-- i . 

zz 

86~ 84 . 82' 80° 

>80ro 

'ao T ~ 

X ZONE ,r 

21..50 83.5 

0 " 

v 

_~ 

At 

. 24' 

17.0 

55 .1 8

.0* 

13.0 

3°°~ 9.7~ 

10.4 

52.8 

N 013.2 

a ( ".5 

:?~vti.r. r 

CUBA 

1 

60.71 27.1 

" 

12 .5 :c : 

z . ° 

Figure SOb. Areal distribution of the proportion of sand-size material in the 

Z, X and Y zones (from Brunner and Cooley 1976). 
129 

z 

z~ 

00 . . , . . 

Z ZONE 

1,5 0.4 

01 0.5 f " t 

- - 

, " ,,3A rp 'oo0 5. : " 3.30 

~ 1 .2 ; 

2.3 

5.4 0, 3.2 

02.0 

0. 3* 

'O :CUBA 

`p . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . 

< 1 : : :'a' : 

zi 

8e 8a' 82 S0~ 

Y ZONE 

3.7 

0.2 1.7 

?O f 0 2s° 

"3.2 `~ 1,0 

1 .9 "

, 

~ ~ 0.7 

11 .4 a 2.1 '0 o 

r goo " ~ 0 4.. 

1 .5 2.2 

:.4 . . . . . . . . . . . r 

1 .0 C UBA 

< t .oo 

" : : 

. . 

. . 

a i , zo 86 84 82 80 

100 

c 

.. 

X ZONE 

2;- 130 

`~ . ." 

,"~ \00 

, 2i 

5 O 

2S 3.2 9 

' oo0 2.5 3 8.8 

. . 

. 2.2 . . . . . . . . 

. . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . : : : CUBA . . . 

. . . 2 O 

o° <1 ` ' C; 

:1 ~ : :

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2z 

Figure SOc. Accumulation rates (g/cm'/1000 yr) of silt and clay-size material 

in the Z, Y and X zones (from Brunner and Cooley 1976). 
130 

37M 

112M 

187M 

262M 

40 

31 

30 20 

~20 

450M 

750M 

1050M 

1350M -j--

23 .ON 23.5N 24 .ON 24.5N 

CONTOUR FROM 2.5 TO 57 .5 BY 2.5 

10 10 

50 

Figure S la. Vertical profile of the annual average current speed (cm-s-1) in 

the Florida Current at 82°W looking upstream for year 10 of 

the present-day seasonally-forced simulation . 
131 

40M 

120M 

200M 

280M 

360M 

440M 

50 

10 

10 

630M 

930M 

1230M -}-

23.ON 23.5N 24.ON 

CONTOUR FROM 2.5 TO 57.5 BY 2.5 

`30 

40 

20 30 

10 

_ 20 

Figure 51b . Vertical profile of the annual average current speed (cm-s-1) in 

the Florida Current at 82°W looking upstream for year 2 of 

the LGM low transport case . 
132 

percent) of each of the interglacial zones Z, X and V were 31 .8, 42.6 and 37 .5, 

respectively . The glacial zones Y and W had average sand contents (in percent) of 25 .4 

and 23 .9, respectively . These data clearly indicate higher sand content and presumably 

greater bottom current velocities during interglacial periods than during glacial periods in 

the Yucatan Channel, although Brunner's (1984) conclusion (not based on core 19 data) 

was the the opposite. 

The hypothesis of lower than present volume transport of the Florida Current is 

also in agreement with the paleoceanographic modeling study by Lautenschlager et al . 

(1992) as mentioned in Chapter 1 . A comparison of the global annual average of surface 

horizontal velocity using present-day boundary conditions (control run) and ice age 

boundary conditions is presented in Lautenschlager et al . (1992) . The intensity of the 

surface equatorial currents in the Atlantic are shown to increase, but a larger percentage 

of the flow is directed southward along the east coast of South America in the Brazil 

Current in the LGM simulation than control. The velocity vectors in the Caribbean and 

the eastern Gulf of Mexico are smaller in the LGM model results than in the control run, 

indicating weaker surface currents . 
133 

CHAPTER 5 

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 

5.1 Present-Day Model Simulation 

A numerical ocean model is developed for the study of the circulation in the GOM 

under present and past environmental conditions. The model is first initialized with 

present-day annual mean temperature and salinity fields and forced with annual mean 

wind stress in order to calibrate model parameters and test the method of forcing the 

model with geostrophic currents in the Caribbean. The annual cycle is then implemented 

through seasonally-varying surface boundary conditions and seasonal adjustment of the 

geostrophic forcing in the Caribbean . The seasonal variation of the volume transport of 

the LC is achieved through forcing the seasonal variation in the vertical shear of the 

Caribbean Current with observed climatological hydrographic data. Detailed analysis of 

the present-day seasonal simulations was made to satisfy the following objectives: (1) 

verify the ability of the model to produce realistic results, (2) learn more about the deep 

circulation in the GOM, which is not well understood, and (3) provide a basis for using 

the model to study circulation in the GOM during the LGM. 

The model is useful for simulating seasonal changes in certain circulation patterns 

in the GOM as well as the impact of rings on other features of the general circulation. 

Some of the observed physical oceanographic processes reproduced in the model output 

are the Catoche Tongue upwelling, Campeche Bay cyclone, seasonal cycle in the WBC, 

the shelf break current off Louisiana and Texas, southward flow on the west Florida Shelf 

and the Tortugas Gyre. The model results show very realistic simulation of ring 

formation, migration and decay. The model does not accurately reproduce the observed 

circulation on the Texas-Louisiana shelf. This is in part due to the rather coarse 

resolution of the wind data set used and also due to the lack of bouyancy forcing which is 

provided by the fresh water flux of the Mississippi River, which are significant factors in 

forcing the westward near shore currents along the Louisiana-Texas coast (Oey 1995). 

The model also exhibits a fixed ring-separation period of 30 weeks, which is slightly less 

than the primary mode of between eight and nine months (Sturges 1994 and Vukovich 

1995). 

To study the deep circulation the model temperature and velocity fields were 

saved every three days for three years of model time at four levels in the vertical . 

Computer animations were made at each level to provide a continuous description of the 

entire water column covering six complete ring life spans. Snapshots of the model 

temperature, salinity, velocity and transport stream function at every grid point were 

saved every three months for more detailed analysis of the vertical structure. The ability 

to look at the temperature and velocity of the entire water column with very fine temporal 

and spatial resolution has led to some new conclusions about the forcing mechanisms of 

the large cyclonic gyres that dominate the deep circulation. They have been described as 

expressions of topographic Rossby waves that may be excited during ring separation, but 
134 

are thought to become decoupled from the LC rings because they migrate westward at a 

greater speed than the surface rings (Hamilton 1990). One can observe a connection 

between the deep cyclones and the surface temperature signal of the rings in the model 

output and conclude that they migrate westward as a pair. Analysis of the deep 

circulation in the eastern GOM indicates that the deep cyclones are formed beneath the 

LC during the final stages of ring separation. The deep cyclones in the model appear 

restricted by the bathymetric contours to a narrow migration path, but the surface 

anticyclones follow three main paths similar to those observed by Vukovich and 

Crissman (1986) . 

5 .2 Last Glacial Maximum Model Simulation 

This paleoceanographic study is significant because it uses a small grid size in the 

horizontal and vertical within a limited model domain to be truly eddy-resolving . The 

LGM simulations for both the high and low transport cases produce a LC and ring 

separation process much like we observe today . Varying the volume transport of the LC 

during the LGM simulations resulted in variations in the size, migration paths and life 

spans of the rings. A change in the general circulation between the high and low 

transport cases is the development of a northward current in the low transport case off 

the west coast of Florida associated with the cyclonic circulation of the Tortugas Gyre. 

There are several significant differences between the present-day simulations and 

the LGM simulations in the western GOM that may explain the distribution of glacial 

fauna. A gyre-like pattern of temperature and salinity is estimated for both winter and 

summer during the LGM from statistical analysis on counts of glacial planktonic 

foraminifera in trigger-core tops in the western GOM (CLIMAP 1976 and Brunner and 

Cooley 1976). Temperatures and salinities were high in the center of the gyres and 

decreased toward the boundaries of the western basin. 

In the present-day western GOM a seasonal WBC, forced by the seasonal cycle in 

wind stress curl (Sturges 1993), is positioned along the northern half of the western 

boundary. A WBC is also generated in the LGM simulations, but it originates in the 

southern Campeche Basin, flows northward to at least 24°N, but frequently extends into 

the northwestern GOM. An east-west temperature gradient is associated with the WBC 

along most of its path. South of the Texas coast a persistent north-south temperature and 

salinity gradient is caused by the presence of rings that enter the northwest corner and 

eventually decay. Southward displacement of the westerlies during winter produces 

upwelling off south Texas and Louisiana and generates even cooler temperatures along 

the coast. 

The gradients in glacial temperature and salinity fields in the southern portion of 

the western gyre may also be explained by upwelling. Although wind direction over the 

western Yucatan Peninsula is favorable for upwelling year-round, the maximum in wind 

stress occurs in summer. A tongue of upwelled water extends westward from the 

western Yucatan Peninsula in late summer and can extend all the way across the western 

basin depending on the location of rings and other mesoscale eddies . The combination of 
135 

upwelling regimes, the WBC, and the longer residence times of the rings in the western 

GOM (especially in the low transport case) is consistent with the gyre distribution of 

glacial temperature and salinity in the western GOM. 

There is sedimentation data for both the Yucatan Channel and the southern Straits 

of Florida that appears to support the hypothesis of lower transport of the LC system 

during the LGM than the present. Overall accumulation of silt and clay-size sediment in 

the central portion of the southern Straits of Florida is greater for the LGM than for the 

present (Brunner 1986), which may indicate weaker bottom velocities in the Florida 

Current during the LGM than the present. Also a greater percent of sand-size material 

was observed in each of the interglacial zones, Z, X, and V than in the glacial zones Y 

and W in a piston core in the Yucatan Channel (Brunner 1984). Brunner (1984) assumed 

that the percent of sand-size material is proportional to bottom flow velocities, which 

may indicate weaker bottom current velocities through the Yucatan Channel during the 

LGM than the present. 

The model results for the LGM suggest that both the distribution of glacial fauna 

in the western GOM and sedimentation patterns in the southern Straits of Florida and the 

Yucatan Channel are consistent with lower than present volume transport of the LC 

system. These findings are in agreement with the LGM global ocean model results of 

Lautenschlager et al. (1992) . 

5.3 Future Work 

An updated version of the Modular Ocean Model was released in the summer of 

1995 that includes a free-surface boundary condition. The implementation of the freesurface may improve simulating ring dynamics and near-shore processes. Better vertical 

grid resolution on the Texas-Louisiana shelf and incorporation of fresh-water flux of the 

Mississippi River would improve the present-day simulation in that region . The LGM 

simulations would be improved by quantitative estimates of the inflow into the Caribbean 

during the LGM from both the North Atlantic and South Atlantic and subsequently an 

estimate of the glacial volume transport of the Florida Current. 
137 

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143 

APPENDIX A 

NUMERICAL MODEL FORMULATION 

The Modular Ocean Model is a three-dimensional primitive-equation ocean 

model. The ocean is assumed to be incompressible . In order to simplify the equations, 

the following approximations are made : thin shell approximation, hydrostatic 

assumption and the Boussinesq approximation. There are constant eddy viscosity 

coefficients, x and AH, and constant eddy diffusivity coefficients, ~i and A.. The variables 

are projected onto a spherical coordinate system with a, 0, X, (~, and z, used to represent 

the earth's radius, angular speed, latitude, longitude and height, respectively . The 

following seven equations are solved for u-, v-, and w-components of velocity, pressure 

p, density p, potential temperature T and salinity S: 

au uvtan(~ 1 ap au 

at ' Lu - a - ~ p acos4) ak + "' aZ z 

. AM [ V1u . ~ 1 - tanZ(0 ) u - 2 sink av ~ 

a Z a ZcosZ(D al 

av , Lv - u'tan(~ + fu _ - 1 ap + 

g 

~~v 

at a p ,a al 

AM [ V2v * ~ 

1 - tanZ(~) v + 2 sink au k 

a ZCosZ(~ ai 

ap P9 (3) 

i au i a(vcos(~) aw 

acos(~ az + acos4) a4~ + az ~ ' (4) 

z 

aT,LT=xaT .AHV2T , (S) at aZ Z 

as + Ls = K S + AHV2s , 

at aZ Z 

P = P (T~ S,P) 
144 

The additional forcing terms in the above equations are the advection operator, 

L(a) = 

1 a(ua) + 1 a(vacosc + a(wa) 

acos~ al acos4) a~ az 

the horizontal Laplacian operator, 

a - 

1 ~ a 1 

a( ~ 

cos(O) 

~ a

a 2 cosZ(~ c7 .12 a Zcos(O 4 > 

and the Coriolis parameter, 

f = 2 0 sink . 

The boundary conditions applied to the governing equations are: zero flux of 

momentum, heat and salt at the ocean bottom; wind stress and fluxes of heat and salt are 

prescribed at the surface ; no slip at the vertical walls; no flux of heat or salt at the vertical 

walls ; a rigid-lid at the surface (w=0 at z=0) ; and flow parallel to the slope at the ocean 

bottom . Due to the rigid-lid approximation, this version of the model can not be used to 

solve for sea-surface elevation and therefore does not contain tides . 

The finite-difference method was used to construct the model on a staggered grid 

referred to as the Arakawa B-grid or B scheme. This scheme was chosen over other 

arrangements of grid points because it works better with a high number of vertical levels 

and is better for the resolution of eddy dynamics (Semtner 1986a). The arrangement of 

grid points is such that the temperature, salinity, actual depth and transport stream 

function lie at the center of the grid box and velocity lies at the centers of the vertical 

edges. The vertical component of velocity is computed at the vertical interface between 

two grid boxes. 

The type of numerical solver implemented is the five-point conjugate gradient 

method, which is faster and more accurate than the successive over-relaxation method of 

the Bryan-Cox model (Pacanowski et al . 1991), while retaining its ability to work with 

steep gradients in bathymetry. 
145 

APPENDIX B 

MINIMUM INFLOW CONDITION FOR THE LGM SIMULATIONS 

The last glacial maximum simulations were designed to test the model's response 

to varying the inflow into the GOM. We first assume that the annual average volume 

transport into the GOM through the Yucatan Channel is equal to the outflow through the 

Florida Straits. We then tried to determine how much the inflow during the LGM may 

have differed from the present. Therefore it was necessary to evaluate the sources of the 

present-day Florida Current and the percent contributions of each of the sources, before 

we could predict how much the total flow may have changed. 

The widely accepted value for the total flow of the Florida Current at 24°N is 30 

Sv (Schmitz et al. 1992). The wind-driven component of the Florida Current can be 

estimated by computing the annual mean Sverdrup volume transport for the North 

Atlantic from present-day wind stress climatology . The annual mean Sverdrup volume 

transport at 24°N is 18 Sv computed using the Hellerman and Rosenstein (1983) wind 

stress climatology (Boning et al. 1991) . This value compares well with the estimate of 

17 Sv of wind-driven transport entering the Caribbean reported by Schmitz et al. (1992). 

Schmitz and Richardson (1991) estimate that the remaining 13 Sv or 45% of the total 

flow in the Florida Current is of South Atlantic origin to compensate for the crossequatorial transport of NADW. 

The Sverdrup volume transport calculation is repeated using the Kutzbach and 

Guetter (1986) LGM wind stress field for January and July (Figure 52). The maximum 

volume transport in the North Atlantic gyre in January is 23 .73 Sv at 24 .4°N, but less 

than 22 Sv could flow into the Caribbean east of Cuba (Figure 52a) at this latitude . The 

north Atlantic Gyre is shifted north in the summer (Figure 52b) and has a maximum 

Sverdrup volume transport of only 5 .5 Sv, but less than 2 Sv could enter the Caribbean 

east of Cuba. There is a very large seasonal difference in the volume transport of the 

North Atlantic gyre computed using the Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) wind stress 

estimates. As discussed in Chapter 3, it is not practical to directly force changes in the 

total transport produced by the inflow condition. Therefore the wind-driven component 

of the Florida Current for the LGM low transport simulations was set equal to the average 

of the maximum possible transports entering the Caribbean east of Cuba during January 

and July. This calculation produces an annual average wind-driven component of the 

Florida Current of 12 Sv, which is 1/a of the present-day value of 17-18 Sv. 

How much of the total transport of the Florida Current is represented by the winddriven flow during the LGM? Reliable quantitative estimates of the thermohaline 

circulation for the LGM are not yet available and it is not possible to determine how 

much South Atlantic water entered the Caribbean as cross-equatorial compensation flow 

of glacial NADW. This study assumes that the ratio of wind-driven transport to total 

transport of the Florida Current was the same during the LGM as today. Therefore the 

target volume transport of the low inflow condition is achieved by reducing the target 

volume transport of the present-day seasonal forcing case by 1/3 . 
146 

v 

- + +---- -----~---- - 

io 

-- ---; - 

io~' 

0 

- -------------------- 

--------- 

-------------- 

-- - 

. . . .. . .. . . _~_C___~- . ..

._T~~ 

- 

_ . .

. 

> ,r 

1 

` n_. 

1 

t 

CONTOUR FROM -22 TO 18 BY 2 

Figure 52a. Sverdrup volume transport (Sv) for the North Atlantic computed 

using Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) wind stress field for 18,000 

years B.P . on a 7.5° longitude by 4.4° latitude grid for January. 
147 

\ \ \ 1 

-ar.5 

., 

,- - _~ . . . . ,- - 

. . Q 

"~--i---'-' 

2.51 

---- -- 

0 

-- - - 

CONTOUR FROM -10 TO 4 BY .5 

Figure 52b. Sverdrup volume transport (Sv) for the North Atlantic computed 

using Kutzbach and Guetter (1986) wind stress field for 18,000 

years B.P . on a 7.5° longitude by 4.4° latitude grid for July. 
NT F y~ 'y The Department of the Interior Mission 

a`` p As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has responsibility for 

most of our nationally owned public lands and natural resources. This includes fostering sound use 

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, 9 

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