Colville River

Delta

Oliktok

Point

Pndhoe Bay

Tigvañak

Island

Prepared for

U.S. Department of Interior

Mineral Management Service

Alaska OCS Region

949 East 36th Street

Anchorage, Alaska 99508

Brnwntow

Point

30 0 30 60 120 150 Kilometers
U.S. Department of Interior

Mineral Management Service

Alaska OCS Region

949 East 36th Street

Anchorage, Alaska 99508

This study was funded, in part, by the U.S. Department of the Interior, Minerals Management

Service (MMS), through Intra-agency Agreement No. 16950 with the U.S. Department of

Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, Biological Resources Division, as part of the MMS Alaska

Environmental Studies Program.

January 2002

The opinions, findings, conclusions or recommendations expressed in this report or product are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect

the views of the Minerals Management Service, nor does the mention of trade names or commercial products constitute endorsement or

recommendation for use by the Federal Government.
U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, MBM National Technical Information Service

1011 E. Tudor Road 5285 PortRoyal Road

Anchorage, AK 99503 Springfield, VA 22161

Telephone: (907) 786-3443 Telephone: (800) 553-6847

SUGGESTED CITATION

Fischer, J. B., T. J. Tiplady, and W. W. Lamed. 2001. Monitoring Beaufort Sea waterfowl and

marine birds, aerial survey component. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Division of

Migratory Bird Management, Anchorage, Alaska. OCS study, MMS 2002-002.

11
Scoters 26

Glaucous Gull 28

Northern Pintail 30

Geese and Swans 32

Shorebirds 34

Pacific Loon 36

Red-throated Loon 38

Yellow-billed Loon 40

Bias Due to Changes in Survey Platform 42

Offshore Survey Results 43

Components of Variation in Offshore Distribution 43

Offshore Species Composition and Distribution 44

Long-tailed Duck 50

Common Eider 50

King Eider 50

Spectacled Eider 50

Scoters 51

Glaucous Gulls 51

Pacific Loon 51

Red-throated Jin 51

Yellow-billed Loon 52

111
iv
Table 27. Bird species observed during six Offshore surveys 47

Table 28. Number observed and percent composition of focal taxa 48

Table 29. Flock size of marine birds detected in Offshore surveys 50

v
Figure 27. Locations of Red-throated Loons during 12 Near-shore surveys 39

Figure 28. Locations of Yellow-billed Loons during 12 Near-shore surveys 41

Figure 29. Mean log density of Yellow-billed Loons among four Near-shore habitats 41

Figure 30. Percent composition of focal taxa observed during Offshore surveys 48

Figure 31. Number of individuals per taxa seen in each strata 49

Figure 32. Mean log density of Long-tailed Ducks among 8 strata in June, July, Aug 52

Figure 33. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Long-tailed Ducks 53

Figure 34. Mean log density of Long-tailed Ducks among 8 strata in 1999 vs. 2000 54

Figure 35. Mean log density of Common Eiders among 8 strata 55

Figure 36. Mean log density of Common Eiders among 8 strata in 1999 vs. 2000 55

Figure 37. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Common Eiders 56

Figure 38. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of King Eiders 57

Figure 39. Mean log density of King Eiders among 8 strata in June, July and August 58

Figure 40. Inter-seasonal differences in King Eiders in 1999 vs. 2000 58

Figure 41. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Spectacled Eiders 59

Figure 42. Mean log density of Scoters among 8 strata in June, July and August 60

Figure 43. Inter-seasonal differences in Scoters in 1999 vs. 2000 60

Figure 44. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Scoters 61

Figure 45. Mean log density of Glaucous Gulls among 8 strata in June, July, Aug 62

Figure 46. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Glaucous Gulls 63

Figure 47. inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Pacific Loons 64

vi
vi'

As an alternative to aerial surveys for evaluating effects of human activities, we suggest

measuring behavioral responses of individual birds to disturbances of known size and duration.

This direct measure could document immediate changes in distribution in a controlled setting.

This approach may also identify what activities have measurable effects and predict the potential

duration of these effects. Further, we suggest future surveys employ a sampling design that

includes systematic transects with random starting points to provide an unbiased sample of

multi-species distribution, abundance, and habitat preference.

KEY WORDS: Beaufort Sea; marine birds; sea ducks; lagoons; Long-tailed Duck; Clangula

hyemalis; Common Eider; Somateria mollissima; King Eider; Somateria spectabilis; Spectacled

Eider; Somateriafischeri; Northstar; aerial survey; OCS, offshore.

ix
x
protocol to collect density and distribution data on Long-tailed Ducks in 1999-2000 to compare

relative densities between an "industrial" and "contol" area. These areas were delineated in the

early 1 990s at a time when human activity was concentrated in the "industrial" area (Johnson

and Gazey 1992). In addition, we sought to identify the relationship between bird density and

human activity.

Although human disturbance may have indirect effects on marine birds, an oil spill could

directly expose birds to oil and cause mortality in some individuals of these species (Stehn and

Platte 2000). The probability and relative seventy of oil spill impacts on population status

depends on the temporal and spatial distribution of marine birds in the region. To understand

marine bird distribution in the region we expanded aerial surveys throughout the near-shore

environment between Oliktok Point and Brownlow Point.

The Near-shore aerial survey protocol provides a means to monitor trends and

distribution patterns of bird populations close to shore, but bird use of offshore waters is poorly

documented. Previous studies demonstrated that Spectacled Eiders (Somateriafischeri), a

threatened species, use offshore waters extensively (Petersen et al. 1999). Surveys in the

Canadian Beaufort Sea revealed that eiders used waters as far as 115 km from shore (Searing et

al. 1975). Thus, we designed an Offshore survey to delineate concentrations of eiders and other

marine birds that use waters within and beyond the barrier island lagoons between Cape Halkett

and Browniow Point. In contrast to the Near-shore survey that was designed to detect smallscale distribution patterns within the barrier island lagoons, the Offshore survey covered a much

1
2
Cap

Halkett

Otiktok Colville River Point Delta

Offshore

Prudhoe Bay

T

y'sI.

Tigvariak

Island Brownlow

Point

30 0 30 60 90 120 ISO Kilometers

Figure 1. Smdy area for Near-shore and Offshore marine bird surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska,

1999-2000.

3
23

25,

Prudhoe Bay

10 0 10 20 .30 40 50 Kilometers

Tigvariak

Island

Figure 2. Aerial survey transects in Industrial and Control areas, Beaufort Sea, Alaska.

4

Control

Brown low

Point

133

193

193

134,

182

ió

181

191

136

180

190

/ 301 202

/ 401 302 31

Oliktok 402 32

Point 33
Industrial

101' 201 102 301 202

401 302

Oliktok 402

Point

Central

33ir-,- 22

32 23

33 24

25 I co

/ 907 / 910 Prudhoe 913 906

909 63

912 'k- 133 915 V

10 0 10 20 30 40 50 Kilometers

Bay

905

901

Oil

914

/

Control

/

I / /

-IL-- I

/ 62

134 182

192

/ 6!

135' 60

181 136

191 180

190 Browniow

Point

Figure 3. Aerial survey transects in an expanded Near-shore survey. Sampling occurred in

four habitats among three areas.

5
Transects 60 and 136 were tnncated on 15 August 2000, due to fog. On that day, transect 60 was 5.75 km (2.3 km2) and transect

136 was 6.43 km (2.57 km2).

6

915 32.30 12.92

Control Near-shore Manne 60 13.63 5.45

61 12.43 4.97

62 12.83 5.13

63 14.38 5.75

Banier Island 133 16.73 6.69

134 13.85 5.54

135 14.35 5.74

136 15.90 6.36

Mid-lagoon 180 14.58 5.83

181 11.70 4.68

182 13.55 5.42

183 14.35 5.74

Mainland-Shoreline 190 16.45 6.58

191 13.48 5.39

192 17.33 6.93

193 18.90 7.56
2000

July 27-31

Aug. 31-Sept.

3

June 24-27

July 25-28

Aug. 25-30

Comnnder

7

45 180

L

TJ. Tiplady, R.M. Platte

W.W. Lamed, J. Stich

J.B. Fischer, A. Brackney

J.B. Fischer, DJ(. Marks

200 J.B. Fischer, D.K. Marks
Habitat(Area) term would be significant.

Similarly, Transects were nested within Habitat

and Area; thus, transects were considered within

the context of a particular Habitat in a specific

Area.

To compare Long-tailed Duck population

trends among the "Industrial" and "Control"

areas, we examined the p-value associated with

the Area*Year term. A significant Area*Year

term would indicate that trends in density

estimates were different between the "Industrial"

Transcct(Habiiat(Area))

T(H(A)) Residual

Ermc

YearTransect(Habitat(Area)) YT(H(A)) Residual

Ermc

th(Wave+l) W Residual

Error

Anova Model: th(Density+l) = Constant + D + A + AY + 11(A)

+ T(H(A)) + YT(H(A))

Ancova Model: th(Density+l)= Constant + D+ A + AY+ 11(A)

+YH(A) + T(H(A)) + YT(H(A)) + W

and "Control" areas.

To determine if Long-tailed Duck

densities were significantly related to human activities, we examined the p-value of the

Disturbance term in the ANOVA model. The Disturbance term was based on human activities

that we recorded on transect (boat traffic, low-level aircraft overflights [< 150 m], and landbased human activities [workers on land adjacent to transect]). We then applied an ordinal

Disturbance code to each transect for each survey (1= 0 occurrences, 2= 1-5 occurrences, 3= 5-

10 occurrences, 4= >10 occurrences; Johnson and Gazey 1992).

In accordance to MMS protocol (Johnson and Gazey 1992), these tests were re-assessed

using ANCOVA. The process was identical to the ANOVA, with the exception that the

8
(1992) and re-evaluated the inter-area trend comparisons.

Offshore Survey Methods

The Offshore survey was designed specifically to monitor Spectacled Eider use of nearshore and offshore waters. Accordingly, transects were established in 1999 within areas of

known Spectacled Eider presence as determined from telemetry studies (Petersen et al. 1999).

This area included 36 transects spanning from Cape Halkett to Bullen Point (Fig. 4, transects 1-

36). Given the need, however, to obtain distribution and abundance data for marine birds within

range of a potential oil spill (Stehn and Platte 2000), we extended coverage east to Brownlow

Point in 2000 with the addition of 7 transects (Fig. 4, transects 37-43). Unlike the Near-shore

survey, offshore transect lines ran perpendicular to shore for approximately 60 km. Due to

persistent fog on transects, we were unable to survey the northern extent of all transects during

eveiy flight; thus, the area (km2) surveyed varied between replicates (Tables 4,5). While on

transect we recorded bird observations within 200m of both sides of the aircraft. Transects were

spaced 5.4 km apart providing a 7.4% sample of the study area.

We completed 3 Offshore surveys in both 1999 and 2000. The surveys were conducted

at the end of June, July, and August in each year. This timing was planned to coincide with

estimated peaks of offshore abundance for local breeding Spectacled Eiders (i.e., exodus of

breeding males [late June], failed or non-breeding females [late July], and successful breeding

females with broods [late August]). Appropriate dates for surveying King (Somateria

spectabilis) and Common Eiders (S. mollisima) were expected to be similar.

9
10 D ?D :o 5) [ti 70 )

Figure 4. Offshore survey traflsects and strata, Beaufort Sea, Alaska, l99-2OOO, Strata are

indicaied with bold nuirthers. Strata: I- Harrison Bay Deep, 2- Industrial Deep, 3- Central Deep. 4-

Control Deep, 5- Harrison Bay Shallow, 6- Industrial Shallow, 7- central Shallow, 8- Control

Shalkw.

10

1slnd Browniow

Point
ASSESSiNG BIAS IN OFFSHORE SURVEYS

We assessed potential bias introduced from fluctuating altitude during Offshore surveys

in two ways. First we conducted a two-tailed t-test with Long-tailed Duck log density as the

independent variable and Altitude (45 m vs. 90 m) as a grouping variable. Second, we tested the

significance of an altitude term (45 m vs. 90 m) while controlling for all variables and covariates

in the "final model". This step provided a means to ask, given variability in density estimates

associated with temporal and spatial factors (Year, Month, Strata, etc.), did Survey Altitude

explain a significant proportion of variation?

Analysis and Presentation

Presentation of density estimates in figures and tables are reported in log transformed

format (Ln [density-i-i]) to correspond with existing MMS protocol (OCS-MMS 92-0060,

Johnson and Gazey 1992). This format allows the reader to distinguish the degree of statistical

significance of inter-area comparisons and distribution differences. Because these surveys were

aimed at detecting trends rather than abundance estimates, transformed density estimates provide

a reliable indicator of statistical differences. Readers can find actual counts and standard

densities for each survey in Appendices 1,2 and 4.

We used SYSTAT 7.0 (SYSTAT 1997) for statistical analysis in this report.

11
12

Stratum Totil 1%.3 154.3 194.8 207.2 182.3 180.0

Central Deep (3) lOd - 17.8 17.7 18.2 18.0 17.7

lId 12.5 17.1 15.2 16.8 16.9 16.9

12d 12.7 8.5 15.0 17.6 17.1 18.7

3d 18.6 20.1 17.3 17.8 6.5 18.0

4d 15.5 14.4 16.0 17.2 4.8 16.3

5d 8.4 15.1 14.2 15.1 4.4 15.1

6d 9.3 10.8 14.0 14.3 3.8 13.9

7d 5.2 12.5 16.9 13.6 2.4 13.4

Sd 2.3 13.5 16.4 14.6 1.9 14.5

9d 0.6 12.1 16.7 17.4 17.6 17.3

Stratum Totil 84.9 141.9 159.4 162.8 93.5 161.9

Control Deep (4) Id 24.2 18.9 18.6 19.9 7.6 19.4

2d 22.9 18.3 17.8 18.6 7.2 18.6

37d - - 23.0 11.2 7.9

38d 20.5 12.2 20.4

39d 21.2 11.0 21.3

40d 20.9 10.2 21.1

41d 20.9 9.5 21.1

42d 19.7 10.2 20.1

4311 - - 19.6 8.9 19.5

Stratum Total 47.1 37.3 36.3 184.4 88.0 169.5
13

6s 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7

7s 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6 10.6

Ss 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.6

9s 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4

Stratum Total 83.4 84.2 84.2 84.2 84.2 84.2

Control Shaflow (8) Is 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5

2s 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 37s - 0.9 0.9 0.9

38s 2.8 2.8 2.8

39s 2.7 2.7 2.7

40s 2.7 2.7 2.7

41s 2.9 2.9 2.9

42s 3.2 3.2 3.2

43s - 4.1 4.1 4.1

Stratum Total 12.6 12.6 12.6 31.8 31.8 31.8
I

Percent ice cover I Covariate (Arc-sine transformed)

Wave height (ft.) Wa Covariate (in transformed)

Wind speed (mph) Wi Cova-iate

14
activities were recorded in 1990-1991 and 1999-2000 (Table 8, Fig. 7, 8). Within the 24

transects used for analysis, potential disturbances occurred at a rate of 2.5 in Industrial transects

to every 1 on Control transects.

Figure 7. Total number of potential disturbances on transects during

Near-shore surveys, 1990-1991,1999-2000. Potential disturbances

included boats (all ni-ine vesse)s), aircraft (overflights <150 m), and

humans (workers on land adjacent to transects).

15

10

<0

hdustrial

I

o control

Figure 8. Average numbei of potential disturbances each year on

Industrial and Control transects. Potential disturbanees occurred at

a higher rate in the Industrial area during each ar of the study.

,dustriaI Central Control 1990 1991 1999 2000

1oo

Boat 280 o Arcraft

:eo I-kjriri

4o

C

2O

0z
'See table 2 for error tcrnls used to derive F- statistic

differed significantly (P = 0.002)

between the Control Area (5 = 3.76

0.27 95% Cl) and the Industrial - 6

area(=0.910.1995%C1).

Fourth, the significant interaction 5

term Year*Habitat(Area), indicated 4

that the Habitats within Areas varied -'

significantly between Years. For 3

example, density of Long-tailed

Ducks was relatively high in Barrier

Island habitat in the Control area

during the summer of 1990 but

() 

example, log densities in

Mainland Coastline habitat

decreased significantly in subsequent years (Fig. 9). Fifth, while densities of Long-tailed Ducks

varied among Area-Habitat strata, the significant term Transect(Habitat* Area) demonstrated that

density varied within these strata as well. Thus, Long-tailed Duck density in some transects was

consistently high relative to other transects in the same Area-Habitat strata. These fine-scale

16

(

1990 1991 1999 2000

Figure 9. Mean Jog density (± 95% Cl) of Long-tailed Ducks in Ranier

Island habitat vithin the Cornrol area was variable among yeaTs.
Near-shore Species Composition and Distribution

In 1999, we increased the range of marine bird sampling beyond transects sampled in

1990-1991 (Fig. 3). Unlike the previous section that reported results of a model designed

specifically to identify human related effects on Long-tailed Ducks, here we use data from the

expanded sampling area to describe the distribution of a suite of marine birds observed during 12

replicate surveys from 1999-2000.

We recorded 30 avian taxa during Near-shore surveys in 1999-2000 (Tables 9,10;

Appendices la-k). Among this diverse avifauna, Long-tailed Ducks comprised nearly 80% of all

birds counted in the Near-shore study area (Table 10, Fig. 10). Moreover, Long-tailed Ducks

were the predominant species in all four habitats sampled: Near-shore Marine- 58%, Barrier

Island- 83%, Mid-lagoon- 77%, Mainland Shoreline- 72%. When combined with Long-tailed

Ducks, other marine species such as Common Eiders (6%), Shorebirds (Charadriidae spp. and

17

Control 135 1 0 1 2

Conlrol 136 1 1 0 2

Control 182 2 0 0 2

Control 183 5 0 0 5

Control 190 2 0 0 2

Control 191 1 0 0 1 Control 192 7 0 2 9

Control 193 7 0 0 7
18

(

Black Brant 56 5 77 45 26 0 12 20 86 0 0 0

Northern Pintail 10 483 39 29 62 36 346 153 53 95 6 140

NortheinShoveler 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

Scaupspp. 90 1 0 0 0 61 0 0 12 1 5 0

CommonEider 452 667 510 1330 1089 1173 200 272 444 191 178 211

King Eider 41 97 50 2 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

Eiderspp. 29 0 88 0 0 46 5 * 26 71 172 15

Black Scoter 0 0 0 0 0 57 15 2 20 8 0 0

White-winged Scoter 2 0 0 2 0 0 72 0 8 0 10 2

Surf Scoter 148 311 0 52 11 2 30 36 4 63 246 116

Unidentified Scoterspp. 0 0 105 113 0 1 0 2 29 25 5 23

Lcig-tai1ed Duck 10492 13721 7726 3720 18317 2879 7298 2437 8763 2326 9726 4978

Red-breasted Mergansei 5 10 2 44 25 338 0 8 3 0 4 1 Shorebirdspp. 0 33 694 623 1794 135 86 1071 74 113 54 633

Jaegerspp. 0 0 6 6 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 0

Glaucous Gull 311 251 223 375 633 269 642 463 130 359 446 306

Sabme's Gull 0 1 42 0 0 0 2 1 0 12 4 0

ArcticTem 6 5 8 5 5 15 2 3 1 2 2 1 BIackGuiIIent 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Gyrfkon 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 CommonRaven 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Birds/survey 11904 15840 9748 6499 22075 5109 9102 4992 10108 3600 11136 6712
While Long-tailed Ducks were distributed

differently among Area-Habitat strata, densities varied

among transects within strata (Table 12) suggesting

subtle differences in distribution irrespective of

Habitat and Area. For example, densities were

significantly greater in transect 31 (5 = 4.04, ± 0.83

95% CI) than in the adjoining transect 23 (5 = 2.51, ±

0.68 95% CI) despite similar habitat, and location.

These small-scale differences may reflect microhabitat

differences such as prey availability, protection from poor weather, or possibly reduced

disturbance from human activities.

19

Northern Shoveler 1 0.001

ScaupSpp. 170 0.145

Common Eider 6717 5.748

King Eider 194 0.166

Eider Spp. 460 0394

Black Scoter 102 0.087

White-winged Scoter 96 0.082

Surf Scoter 1019 0.872

Unidentified Scoter Spp. 303 0.259

Lg-tai1ed Duck 92383 79.049

Red-breasted Merganser 440 0.376

Shorebird Spp. 5310 4.544

Jaeger Spp. 22 0.019

Glaucous Gull 4408 3.772

Sabines Gull 62 0.053

Arctic Tern 55 0.047

Black Guillemol 1 0.001

Gyrfalcon 1 0.001

Common Raven 20 0.017

Total 116868 100.00

Unidentified ScoterSpp. 20 4.0 1-100 15.15 5.94

Long-tailed Duck 2726 10.0 1-999 33.89 1.37

Red-breasted Merganser 31 4.0 1-130 14.19 4.94

Shorebird 182 10.0 1-400 29.18 4.02

Jaegar Spp. 15 1.0 1-3 1.47 0.17

Glaucous Gull 1509 1.0 1-80 2.92 0.16

Sabine's Gull II 1.2 1-40 5.64 3.47

Arctic Tern 29 1.0 1-15 1.90 0.48
20 

Central Central

907 2.15 913 0.84

908 3.30 914 0.25

909 3.55 915 1.46

3.00 0.85

Control Control

133 4.31 190 2.95

134 3.73 191 4.30

135 4.18 192 4.06

136 4.20 193 2.27

4.11 3.40

Mid-lagoon Near-shore Marine

Industrial Industrial

24 0.65 101 0.54

301 2.17 102 0.21

302 1.80 22 0.34

32 2.36 30 0.27

1.74 0.34

Central Central

910 0.60 904 0.04

911 0.13 905 0.76

912 0.41 906 0.51

0.38 0.44

Control Control

180 2.44 60 0.73

181 1.78 61 0.73

182 1.82 62 0.84

183 0.50 63 0.68

1.64 0.75
Figurc II. Lcaons of Long-tailed Ducks during 12 Near-shon surveys, 1999-2000.

U

-Ia9oon OI5

Figure 12. Mcan dnity { 5% CI) ot I.g-aikd

Duek among four ni-shr habat n ontroI, Ccntral.

and n tr-iaT ras, t)99-2OOO

21
22

1.65 0.38

Mid-lagoon

industhal

Near-shore Marine

fndustrial

24 0.09 101 0.28

301 0.00 102 0.00

302 0.00 22 0.34

32 0.12 30 0.27

0.05 0.22

Central Central

910 0.14 904 0.15

911 0.01 905 0.01

912 0.38 906 0.01

0.18 0.06

Control Control

180 0.06 60 0.48

181 0.21 61 0.57

182 0.54 62 0.17

183 0.45 63 0.00

031 0.30
Firc 13. Locations of Common Eidrs dwin 12 Near-shore survcys, 1'99-2000

pN1

P1-Ooan Coas

Figurc 14. Mcri log dst (9$% CII ofCommori ider

in1on otir ncar-horc hibitis in Control. Ccntra, 1r!d

ndrni1 res. J94'2OOO.

23
24

Industrial Industrial

24 0.00 101 0.0

301 0.00 102 0.00

302 0.00 22 0.00

32 0.00 30 0.28

0.00 0.08

Central Central

910 0.00 904 0.05

911 0.00 905 0.06

912 0.02 906 0.00

0.01 0.04

East East

180 0.00 60 0.00

181 0.05 61 0.02

182 0.00 62 0.00

183 0.00 63 0.00

0.01 0.00
Figuic I.. 1999

200D

25
26

Industrial Industrial

24 0.23 101 0.03

301 1.02 102 0.00

302 0.91 22 0.26

32 1.08 30 0.00

0.S1 0.07

Central Central

910 0.04 904 0.02

911 0.08 905 0.00

912 0.01 906 0.28

0.04 0.10

Cocflrol Control

180 0.00 60 0.00

181 0.07 61 0.00

182 0.16 62 0.03

183 0.00 63 0.00

0.06 0.01
20 Cl 20 40 Kilometers

Figure 16. Locations of Scoters during 12 Near-shore surveys, 1999-2000.

-. 15j -

+,' 1 - 0.5

,.

C C CC C C w C C D ' 0 W 0 n 0 too

S

toc)

S

tOO S

tOO

S

Barrier Is -Iagaon Coasthne r.rine

Figure 17 Mean log density (.95% CI) oiScoters among four

near-shore habitats in Control. Central. and Industrial areas.

1999-2000.

27
28

(

0.76 0.70

Mid-lagoon

Industrial

Near-Shore Marine

industrial

24 0.12 101 0.40

301 0.01 102 0.08

302 0.04 22 0.Og

32 0.05 30 0.07

0.06 0.16

Central Central

910 0.14 904 0.14

911 0.15 905 0.15

912 0.03 906 0.04

011 0.11

Control Control

180 0.65 60 0.15

181 0.14 61 0.05

182 0.08 62 0.09

183 0.06 63 0.01

0.23 0.08
20 40 Kilometers

Figure 18. Locations of Glaucous Gulls during 12 Near-shore surveys, 1999-2000.

C -c s C C C C C C =

= q, 0 = Wa = WO yOU yOU yOU S S S

Barrr . .Sj-Iaoon Ceasuine

S I.

- C C 0

rjfle

Figure 19. Mean log density (t95% (:1) of Glaucous

Gulls among four near-shore habitats in Control, Central.

and Industrial areas, 1999-2000.

29

20 0

C

-J

0
30

32 0.00 30 0.00

0.00 0.01

Central Central

910 0.00 904 0.04

911 0.00 905 0.01

912 0.00 906 0,00

0.00 0.02

Control Control

180 0.00 60 0.00

181 0.00 61 0.00

182 0.00 62 0.00

183 0.00 63 0.00

0.00 0.00
20 40 Kilometers

Figure 20. Locations of Northern Pintails during L2 Near-shore surveys, 1999-2000.

. -I----. . .--.---

Darner . Md-lagoon Coasthne rine

Figure 21- Mean log density (t 95% Cl) of Northern Pintails

among four near-shore habitats in Control. Central, and

Industrial areas. 1999-2000.

3!

20 0
32

Mid-lagoon Near-shore Marine

Industrial Industrial

24 0.00 101 0.00

301 0.00 102 0.00

302 0.00 22 0.11

32 0.00 30 0.00

0.00 0.03

Central Central

910 0.00 904 0.00

911 0.00 905 0.00

912 0.00 906 0.00

0.00 0.00

Control Control

180 0.00 60 0.11

181 0.00 61 0.00

182 0.00 62 0.00

183 0.00 63 0.00

0.00 0.03
20 40 Kilometers

Figure 22. Locations of Geese and Swans during 12 Near-shore surveys, 1999-2000.

-

t = 0 ' C C -g g C C C C QQ oç OjQ oc)c) VOL) OL)L) 0 S - S 2

Barrr s. Md-lagoon Coasttne Marine

Figure 23. Mean log density (r95% CI) of Geese and Swans

among four near-shore habitats in Control, Central, and

Induscrial areas, 1999-2000-

33

20 0

+ 0.5

C

-J 0
34

(

Mid-lagoon Near-shore Marine

Industrial Industrial

24 0.00 101 0.07

301 0.00 102 0.05

302 0.09 22 0.00

32 0.00 30 0.00

0.02 0.03

Central Central

910 0.00 904 0.03

911 0.00 905 0.00

912 0.02 906 000

0.01 0.01

Control Control

180 0.49 60 0.03

181 0.00 61 0.00

182 0.05 62 0.00

183 0.00 63 0.00

0.13 0.01
Figure 24. Loc0ons of Shorebirds during 12 Near-shore surveys. 1999-2000.

1.5 -

0.5 - r 0- -.-! ._..

Barrr a. ld-goon Coas1ie re

Figure 25. Mean log density (95% CI) of Shorebirds among four

near-shore Tiabdats in Canirol, Central, arid Iitdiistrial areas, 1999-

2000.

35
36 tt

302 0.20 22 0.04

32 0.26 30 0.09

0.20 0.09

Central Central

910 0.20 904 o.os (

911 0.10 905 0.21

912 0.08 906 0.13

0.13 0.14

Cocitrol Cocitrol

180 0.25 60 0.11

181 0.09 61 0.16

182 0.10 62 0.15

183 0.13 63 0.10 C 0.14 0.13
20 40 Kilometers

Point

Figure 26. Locations of Pacific Loons during 12 Near-shore surveys, 1999-2000.

37

20 0
38 (

24 0.02 101 0.00

301 0.04 102 0.01

302 0.00 22 0.07

32 0.01 30 0.05

0.02 0.03

Central Central

910 0.10 904 0.00

911 0.00 905 0.02

912 0.01 906 0.02

0.04 0.01

Control Control

180 0.06 60 0.04

181 0.00 61 0.00

182 0.00 62 0.03

183 0.00 63 0.00

0.02 0.02
20 40 Kilometers

Figure 27. Locations of Red-throated Loons during 12 Near-shore surveys, 1999-2000.

39

20 0
40

136 0.10 193 0.00

0.05 0.00

Mid-lagoon

industrial

Near-shore Marine

Industrial

24 0.05 101 0.01

301 0.00 102 0.00

302 0.04 22 0.00

32 0.01 30 0.00

0.03 0.00

Central Central

910 0.01 904 0.00

911 0.01 905 0.00

912 0.00 906 0.00

0.01 0.00

Control Control

180 0.01 60 0.00

181 0.00 61 0.00

182 0.03 62 0.00

183 0.00 63 0.02

0.01 0.01
+

I., C0C

C

-I

005

0

20 40 Kilometers

Pigure 28. Locations of Yellow-billed Loons during 12 Near-shore surveys, I 999-2000.

0.1 II f ._U

a c , a a cc th C 0 j 00 00 = 0 yOU oOO yOO DUO

.9 .E S .9 Barrier . Md-lagoon Coastline Princ

Figure 29. Mean log density (s95% Cl) of Yellow-billed Loons

among four near-shore habitats in Control. Central, and Industrial

areas, 1999-2000.

41

20 0
Nonetheless, the possibility that

Platform may have influenced

our results prompted us to treat

this factor as a nuisance

parameter, control for it in the

ANCOVA model and reassess

the hypotheses that were

designed to test for industry

effects. When we did this, the results of our inter-area trend comparisons and conelation

between human activity and bird distribution remained unchanged (Tables 7,23) indicating that

type of aircraft used was unimportant when evaluating the effects of human activities on Longtailed Ducks.

'See table 2 fcc error tern used to derive F- statistic

42

(

() 

Ln(Wave+1) 1 31.443 31.689 <0.001

Platfocm 1 6.959 7.013 0.008

Residual Irror 548 0.992
stage of the summer.

Although the stage of summer impacted distribution patterns of many marine birds, its

effect varied between years. For example, the Year*Month term was significant among King

Eiders, Scoters, and Red-throated and Yellow-billed Loons. Thus for these species, densities

varied by Month to varying extents in 1999 versus 2000. Similarly, the Year*Strata term was

significant among Common Eiders, Long-tailed Ducks, and Red-throated Loons (P < 0.05)

suggesting that these birds used strata differently between 1999-2000.

To better explain variability in density estimates in the offshore area, three covariates

were included in an ANCOVA model (Table 6). These covariates included Percent Ice Cover

(Arc-sine transformed), Wave Height (Log transfonned), and Wind Speed. These covariates

were negatively correlated with density of several species (Table 26). Thus, as Ice Cover, Wave

Height, and Wind Speed increased, bird density decreased. While these covariates explained a

significant portion of variability in density estimates of several taxa, their contribution was

relatively small. This is demonstrated by the similarity in R2 estimates (representing the

proportion of variability explained in a given model) in the ANOVA and ANCOVA models

(Table 24). For example, among Red-throated Loons, an equal proportion of variability was

accounted for in the two models. Similarly, among Glaucous Gulls and Yellow-billed Loons,

just 1% more of the variance was explained when covariates were introduced. Thus, with the

exception of models describing Pacific Loon density, whose R2 increased by 5% when covariates

were included, Ice Cover, Wave Height and Wind Speed had little effect on density estimates of

marine birds.

43
Common Eiders only represented 5% of all birds seen during the Offshore survey as a whole,

they represented 33% of birds in the Industrial Deep-water stratum.

44
45

StratumMonth 14 1.90 0.03

Error 448 0.29

All Loons Stratum 7 3.68 <0.01

Ln(waveht+1) 1 7.14 <0.01

Wind speed 1 10.32 <0.01

Arcsine%ice 1 18.56 <0.01

Stratum'Year 7 2.40 0.02

Error 455 0.21

Pacific Loon Month 2 10.17 <0.01

Wind speed 1 8.96 <0.01

Arcsine%ice 1 55.42 <0.01

Stratum'Month 14 3.08 <0.01

Stratum'Year 7 2.54 0.01

Error 447 0.20

Red4hroated Loon Year 1 5.30 0.02

Ln(waveht+I) 1 7.69 <0.01

Arc sine %ice 1 22.81 <0.01

Stratum'Month 14 1.90 0.02

Stratum'Year 7 3.10 <0.01

YcarMonth 2 5.31 <0.01

Stratum'YearMonth 14 2.44 <0.01

Error 432 0.21

Yellow-blUed Leon Stratum 7 3.91 <0.01

Month 2 3.41 0.03

Wind speed 1 6.27 0.01

YcarMonth 2 5.76 <0.01

Stratum'YearMonth 14 2.11 0.01

Error 446 0.18
46 (

StratumMonth 14 1.90 0.03

Error 448 0.29

AU Loons Stratum 7 3.68 <0.01

Ln(waveht+I) 1 7.14 <0.01

Wind speed 1 10.32 <0.01

Arc sine %icc I 18.56 <0.01

Stratum*Year 7 2.40 0.02

Error 455 0.21

Pacific Loon Month 2 10.17 <0.01

Wind speed I 8.96 <0.01

Aiv sine %ice 1 55.42 <0.01

SlratumMonth 14 3.08 <0.01

StratumYear 7 2.54 0.01

Error 447 0.20

Red-throated Loon Year 1 5.30 0.02

Ln(waveht+1) I 7.69 <0.01

Arcsine%icc 1 22.81 <0.01

StratumMonth 14 1.90 0.02

StratumYear 7 3.10 <0.01

YearMonth 2 5.31 <0.01

StratumYearMonth 14 2.44 <0.01

Error 432 0.21

Yellow-billed Loon Stratum 7 3.91 <0.01

Month 2 - 3.41 0.03

Wind speed 1 6.27 0.01

YearMonth 2 5.76 <0.01

StratumYcarMonth 14 2.11 0.01

En 446 0.18
47
10

0

27.6

44.2

70

c' cf

.c," .,, S

Figure 30. Percent composition of focal taxa observed during Offshore surveys, 1999-2000.

48

(

(

(

50

Cu 40
I

68

17 21 0,1,. CCC W

a- )- 0

55

49

Figure 31. Number of individuals per taxa seen in each strata. Eiders comprised the majority of sightings in

deep-water strata, while Long-tailed Ducks dominated the shallow-water strata. PALO- Pacific Loon, RTLORed-throated Loon, YBLO- Yellow-billed Loon, COEI- Common Eider, KIEI- King Eider, SPEI- Spectacled

Eider, SCOT- Scoter, LTDU- Long-tailed Duck, GLGU- Glaucous Gull.

.0

0z

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

320

5 1 0 141 30 0 20 62

CCC W I- a-COOD
pp

Red-throated Loon 50 1 1-4 1.3 0 1

Spectacled Eider 7 3 1-100 21.1 137 variation than the ANOVA model (Table

Yellow-billed Loon 22 1 1-3 1.2 0:1 24).

KING EIDER- King

Eiders were abundant in the Offshore survey. They were generally found in large flocks (Table

29). King Eiders were concentrated differently among the 8 strata with significantly higher

densities in the Deep-water Harrison Bay stratum (F7, = 8.284, P < 0.00 1). Like other species,

however, strata were used differently in each month (F14, = 4.757, P < 0.001; Fig. 38). For

example, densities in the Deep-water Harrison Bay stratum were disproportionately high in July,

a period when abundance of this species was elevated in all strata (F2, = 18.576, P < 0.001;

Fig. 39). Moreover, although densities were highest during July of both years of the study, the

magnitude of the difference was significantly greater in 1999 than 2000 (F2,6 3.531, P

0.03; Fig. 40).

SPECTACLED EIDER- Spectacled Eiders were uncommon in the Offshore

survey. Sightings were limited to seven flocks in 1999-2000. When seen, however, they

occurred in relatively large flocks (Table 29). Owing to the limited sightings of Spectacled

Eiders, little variation in density was explained using general linear models 2O5)

Regardless, the interaction term Stratum*Month*Replicate was marginally significant (F14,458 =

1.673, P = 0.058; Fig. 41) indicating that density of this species among strata was dependent

50

(
surveys (Figs. 47,48). While Pacific Loon densities as a whole remained relatively stable

between 1999-2000 (P> 0.05), a small-scale shift in distribution was noted between years (F7,7

= 2.538, P = 0.014). Specifically, densities of Pacific Loons in the Control Shallow-water

stratum were significantly lower in 2000 than in the preceding year (Fig. 49). Two covariates

explained 5% of the variation in Pacific Loon density. Percent Ice Cover (F1,47 = 55.42, P <

0.001) and Wind Speed (F1,7 = 8.959, P = 0.003) were both negatively related to density. That

is, Pacific Loon density increased when less ice was present and as winds decreased.

RED-THROATED LOON Similar to Pacific Loons, Red-throated Loons were

seen as singles, pairs or in small groups (Table 29). Although Red-throated Loons occurred in

all strata, overall densities were low. Densities within specific strata varied both by Month

(F14,432 = 1.902, P = 0.024) and by Year (F7,432 = 3.098, P = 0.003). For example, densities were

highest in the Deep-water strata during August surveys, whereas a greater proportion of Redthroated Loons were closer to shore in July (Figs. 50, 51). Similarly, Red-throated Loons used

the Control Shallow-water stratum to a far greater extent in 1999 than in 2000, whereas use of

other strata was consistent between years (Fig. 52). Two covariates helped explain variance in

Red-throated Loon densities. As with Pacific Loons, Red-throated Loons densities were lower in

areas with greater ice cover (F1,432 = 22.81, P < 0.001). Moreover, as Wave Height increased,

density estimates of Red-throated Loons decreased (F1,432 = 7.687, P = 0.006). While these

covariates were statistically significant, they only explained 1% of the variance.

51
Aigust 3

-JO

I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Figure 32. Mean log density (± SE) of Long-tailed Ducks

among 8 strata during June, July, and August, 1999-2000.

Strata: 1- Harrison Bay Deep, 2- Industrial Deep, 3- Central

Deep, 4- Control Deep, 5- Harrison Bay Shallow, 6- Industrial

Shallow, 7- Ceniral Shallow, 8- Control Shallow.

52
Figure 33. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Long-tailed Ducks during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska, 1999-

2000.

53
54
1.5

Cm

C

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Sirala

2000

I 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Strata

Figure 36. Mean log density (iSE) of Common Eiders among 8 strata1

1999-2000. Strata: 1- Harrison Bay Deep, 2- Industrial Deep, 3- Central

Deep, 4- Control Deep, 5- Harrison Bay Shallow, 6- Industrial Shallow,

7- Central Shallow, 8- Control Shallow.

55
Figure 37. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Common Elders during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska,

1999-2000.

56
Figure 38. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of King Eiders during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska,

1999-2000.

57
I +C

0.5

C

-J

0

C

.5

0

1999

Figure 40. Inter-seasonal differences in mean log

density (± SE) of King Eiders in 1999 and 2000.

58

(

June July Aigust

2000

June July Aigust
Figure 41. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Spectacled Eiders during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska,

1999-2000.

59
0.5

C

-J

0

1999

June July August

2000

June July August

Figure 43. Inter-seasonal differences in mean log

density (± SE) of Scoters in 1999 and 2000.

60
Figure 44. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Scoters during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska, 1999-2000.

61
0.75

0.5

0.25

-J 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Strata

Figure 45. Mean log density (iSE) of Glaucous Gulls among 8 strata during

June, July, and August 1999-2000. Strata: 1- Harrison Bay Deep, 2- Industrial

Deep, 3- Central Deep, 4- Control Deep, 5- Harrison Bay Shallow, 6-Industrial

Shallow, 7- Central Shallow, 8- Control Shallow.

62
Figure 46. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Glaucous Gulls during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska,

1999-2000.

63
Figure 47. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Pacific Loons during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea, Alaska,

1999-2000.

64
02

+C0V

C

- 0

02

+C0V

C

- 0

1999 -

-a -a,

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Strata

2000

-a

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Strata

Figure 49. Mean log density ( SE) of Pacific Loons among 8 strata, 1999-

2000. Strata: 1- Harrison Bay Deep, 2- Industrial Deep, 3- Central Deep, 4-

Control Deep, 5- Harrison Bay Shallow, 6- Industrial Shallow, 7- Central

Shallow, 8- Control Shallow.

65
Figure 50. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Red-throated Loons during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea,

Alaska, 1999-2000.

66
0

C

-J 0

1999

0.1 +C

V

C

-J 0

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Strata

2000 - I- I I . I

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Strata

Figure 52. Mean log density (± SE) of Red-throated Loons among 8 strata, 1999-

2000. Strata: 1- Harrison Bay Deep, 2- Industrial Deep, 3- Central Deep, 4-

Control Deep, 5- Harrison Bay Shallow, 6-Industrial Shallow, 7- Central

Shallow, 8- Control Shallow.

67

0.1 +
68
Figure 54. Inter-seasonal distribution patterns of Yellow-billed Loons during Offshore surveys, Beaufort Sea,

Alaska, 1999-2000.

69
(

(

(

Bias Due to Changes in Survey Altitude

We compared Long-tailed Duck densities estimated from surveys at two altitudes to test

for potential bias. We measured the effect of survey altitude in two ways. First we conducted a

two-tailed t-test with Long-tailed Duck log density as the independent variable and Altitude (300

ft vs. 150 ft) as a grouping variable. This test showed that difference in mean log density

obtained from the two altitudes was insignificant (t471 = -1.505, P = 0.133) suggesting that

Altitude did not bias density estimates. Second, to further verify this result, we found that

altitude did not contribute significantly to explanation of variance in Long-tailed Duck log

density estimates (Fi,o = 1.844, P = 0.175) when controlling for confounding variables. In

other words, the effect of survey altitude on densityestimation was insignificantgjven the

variation that can be attributed to Stratum, Month, Year, Stratum*Month, and Year*Stratum.

70
A second reason why human impacts may be difficult to detect is long-term changes in

habitat. Changes in availability of preferred habitat may influence shifts in Long-tailed Duck

distribution. Configuration of lagoons between 1906 and 1972 suggest a net landward migration

of barrier islands (Naidu et al. 1984). Moreover, some changes in barrier island structure can

occur in relatively short periods of time. For example, a severe arctic storm hit the islands on 10

August, 2000 influencing distribution of marine birds and altering the size of some barrier

islands (Flint et al. 2000).

Finally, human induced effects may not have been detected due to encroachment of

human activities throughout the "Control" area. Thus, this area is not truly a scientific control

because some limited development has occurred there. Seasonal camps in the "Control" area

have served as a base for biological studies in the Maguire Islands since 1999 (Flint et al. 2000).

A similar camp, however, was located in the "Industrial" area as well, thus these camps have not

caused a disproportionate increase of human activity in the "Control" area durmg the study

period.

Correlation between human activities and bird density is difficult to detect even if strong

effects exist, due to low power of the ANOVA and ANCOVA models (Johnson and Gazey

1992).

Detecting human disturbance effects on birds is difficult because density and distribution

is influenced by many variables, such as weather, season and locality. Moreover, disturbance

events in this study were not controlled in a rigid experimental design. Absence of a controlled

experiment can complicate attempts to identify the cause of change. For example, in an

71
y, y gy ()

and ANCOVA (0.75) models.

Possible Long-term Decline in Long-tailed Ducks

While results from this study concurred with nearly all terms and covariates reported by

Johnson and (iazey (1992), one important difference was a significant Year term, indicating that

Long-tailed Duck density in both the Industrial and Control areas declined significantly between

1990 and 2000. Johnson and Gazey (1992) noted an apparent downward Irend in 1991, but the

change was not significant at the alpha =O.05 level. Although the downward trend after 1991

was less pronounced than between 1990 and 1991, densities continued to decline in 1999 and

2000. This trend resulted in a significant Year term in this study, presumably due to the

expanded sampling period (four years) and relatively low intra-year variance.

Concurrent with this downward trend in Long-tailed Duck density was an apparent shift

in species composition within the near-shore study area. For example, Johnson and Gazey

(1992) reported that Long-tailed Ducks made up over 91%, on average, of the marine birds

sighted in the study area during the years 1977-1982, 1984, 1989-1991. The percentage,

however, began decreasing in 1984, when 97% of the birds detected were Long-tailed Ducks.

By 1991, the percentage had dropped to 87% (Johnson and Gazey 1992). Additional surveys in

1999 conducted by LGL Ltd. showed this percentage had dropped further to 84.5% (Noel et al.

2000). In this study we found slightly lower proportions of Long-tailed Ducks (1999- 8O%,

2000- 79%). While the statistical and biological significance of these numbers has not been

72
generally feed. This situation would result in lower density estimates because Long- tailed

Ducks dive for their food where they cannot be seen by survey crews, and because they would be

spread out throughout the mid-lagoon rather than concentrated along the barrier island transect

where they generally roost.

The difficulty in separating these various alternatives highlights the importance of

identifying the breeding locations of Long-tailed Ducks that molt in the central Beaufort Sea

lagoons. Plans are in place to put satellite radios on molting Long-tailed Ducks in 2002 to help

answer this question. Additionally, it is important to gain a better understanding of the effects of

breeding propensity on summer molting populations, and detect long-tenn shifts in activity

budgets.

Distribution Patterns in the Near-shore Survey

Long-tailed Ducks densities were high in Barrier Island habitat relative to other habitats

in the study area. The elevated density in this habitat, however, is likely influenced by the study

design and diurnal patterns of marine birds. For example, given the objective to monitor trends

in density between years, the study protocol specifies the importance of conducting surveys as

late in the day as possible in order to control for diurnal movement patterns (Johnson and Gazey

1992). Long-tailed Ducks have been shown to congregate in the lee of barrier islands in evening

(Johnson 1982, Flint and Lanctot, pers obs.) whereas they feed primarily on invertebrates in midlagoon habitat during midday (Johnson 1982, Craig et al. 1984). Thus, high densities of Long73
yy , 

to the diets of the three species of scoters (Savard et al. 1998, Brown and Fredrickson 1997,

Bordage and Savard 1995) and may influence the unique distribution of these species.

In contrast to the sea ducks, loons were distributed throughout all near-shore habitats.

Un'ike sea ducks, Loons do not use Beaufort lagoons as molting sites. Rather, near-shore waters

serve as important feeding locations during the critical chick-rearing period (Andres 1993).

Loons that were observed in lagoons, therefore, were likely foraging for fish to deliver to chicks

at inland sites. Our results matched those reported by Noel et al. (2000) who found that densities

of Pacific and Red-throated Loons were not significantly different between habitats. Yellowbilled Loon density, however, was slightly higher along barrier islands than in other habitats.

These differences in distribution patterns may reflect varying prey preferences of these three

Loon species.

Other species varied widely in their use of near-shore waters. For example, Glaucous

Gulls were ubiquitous along the Mainland Coastline and Barrier Islands. In these habitats,

Glaucous Gulls were generally roosting on the water's edge. Interestingly, Near-shore Marine

habitat was used to a relatively high extent in the "Control" area. In contrast, Glaucous Gulls

were conspicuously absent from Mid-lagoon habitat throughout the study area. Shorebirds too,

shared the barrier islands and mainland coastline. Shorebird sightings were variable, but when

detected, these birds were generally found in relatively large flocks along mudflats. Rarely were

Shorebirds seen in Mid-lagoon habitat. Similarly, Northern Pintails, and Geese and Swans also

74
(Hohman et al. 1992).

Another factor that explained some variation in distribution was the presence of ice. In

particular, densities of Pacific and Red-throated Loons, and Glaucous Gulls decreased as ice

cover increased. In contrast, densities of other species did not vary significantly with changes in

ice cover. Other researchers found that presence of ice was not helpful in explaining variability

in marine bird offshore distribution (Divoky 1979). Presumably, other components of variation

in this study were more important to distribution patterns, thus the effect of ice was not detected.

In this study, summer ice conditions varied between years, thus consistent patterns were difficult

to detect.

Offshore Migration Corridor

While densities of most marine birds were generally higher in nearshore areas, offshore

waters may provide an important migration corridor for eiders. In this study, densities of King

Eiders were greatest offshore during the July surveys, coinciding with the peak of post-breeding

molt migration (Johnson and Herter 1989). Johnson and Richardson (1982) using a combination

of aerial surveys, ground observations, and radar found that eiders may bypass the south-central

portion of the Beaufort Sea by migrating westward, north of the barrier islands. Similarly,

Peterson et al. (1999) found that post-breeding Spectacled Eiders migrated west, seaward of the

Beaufort Sea barner islands. Finally, an aerial survey of the Canadian Beaufort Sea showed

eiders used waters as far as 115 km from shore in July (Searing et al. 1975).

75
In contrast, our results indicate Harrison Bay had low densities of Long-tailed Ducks and

Common Eiders. By chance, survey transects in Harrison Bay did not intersect Thetis Island, the

single barrier island in Harrison Bay that has high concentrations of Long-tailed Ducks and

Common Eiders (Johnson 1984, Schamel 1974, Johnson 2000). Thus, our density estimates of

these two species are probably low in the Harrison Bay Shallow-water stratum.

Barrier Islands also had high marine bird densities, presumably because they provide

important habitat for many species. These results agree with previous studies that have shown

the afYmity of Long-tailed Ducks and other marine birds to barrier island habitat (Johnson 1982,

1984; Johnson and Gazey 1992). The benefit this habitat provides includes protection from wind

and rough water, and close proximity to abundant prey (Johnson 1982).

On a fine scale, several locations within the Beaufort lagoons stand out as particularly

important. The Barrier Island habitat adjacent to the Stockton Islands had consistently high

densities of Long-tailed Ducks and Common Eiders. Similarly, the Mainland Coastline between

Bullen Point and Point Thomson had surprisingly high densities of Long-tailed Ducks. Finally

Scoters showed a strong affinity to Mid-lagoon habitat throughout most of Simpson Lagoon.

Similar patterns were reported in these three areas by Noel et al. (2000) who conducted

comparable aerial surveys in 1999.

These four locations (Harrison Bay, Stockton Islands, Control Mainland Coastline, and

Simpson Mid-lagoon) appear to have consistently high concentrations of select marine birds.

Accordingly, care should be taken to minimize impacts of human activities in these areas.

76
The current Near-shore study design may be an effective way to monitor trends of Longtailed Duck density among specific areas, but it does not provide unbiased estimates of

abundance or habitat preference. For example, Mid-lagoon habitat is under-represented in the

current design (Noel et al. 2000), preventing reliable expansion of density estimates throughout

this habitat. Moreover, the northern edge of barrier islands is not sampled at all in the current

protocol. In addition, Near-shore survey results should not be misconstrued as demonstrating

habitat preference because timing and locations of sampling were not random.

If abundance estimates and a better understanding of habitat preference are deemed

important and necessary for multiple species using the Beaufort Sea, then a randomized sampling

design may be better suited than the current approach. Purely random transects, however, are

neither safe, logistically feasible, nor economical using an aerial platform. A better alternative

may be a stratified systematic survey with random starting points. With this approach, habitats

would be sampled in proportion to their size regardless of predetermined concentrations of

marine birds. This would provide researchers an unbiased estimate of population size.

Ideally, aerial survey protocols should standardize observers, conditions, survey platform,

and altitude. Standardization, however, is difficult due to uncontrolled weather, geography, and

logistics. For those reasons our aerial surveys were imperfect. While it is accepted that aerial

surveys, like any sampling method, include problems of bias and precision, the aerial platform

does provide an acceptable level of sampling for many management questions (Caughley 1977).

Certainly it is important to minimize potential sources of bias. In this study, the use of two types

of aircraft in the Near-shore survey, and variable altitude during the Offshore survey may have

77
other marine birds in an expanded near-shore area among 4 habitats from Oliktok Point to

Brownlow Point.

Although Long-tailed Ducks are abundant in the Beaufort Sea, Spectacled, King and

Common Eiders also comprise an important proportion of marine avifauna in the region. A poor

understanding of Eider distribution in the south-central Beaufort Sea prompted us to conduct an

Offshore survey in 1999 and 2000. This survey supplemented the existing protocol to sample

near- and off-shore waters for Eiders between Cape Halkett and Brownlow Point up to 60 km

offshore.

The specific objectives of this study were to:

Monitor Long-tailed Ducks and other species within and among "industrial" and

"control" areas using existing protocol (OCS-MMS 92-0060).

Use data from 1999-2000 and data collected by Johnson and Gazey (1992) in 1990-1991

to compare Long-tailed Duck population trends between "industrial" and "control" areas,

and to describe the relationship between distribution patterns and human activities.

Expand the Near-shore survey area to encompass habitats between the original

"industrial" and "control" areas, and sample Near-shore Marine habitat from Oliktok

Point to Brownlow Point to delineate small-scale distribution patterns of marine birds

throughout the expanded study area.

Correlate variation in marine bird populations with environmental factors, human

activities, and temporal and spatial variables.

78
and more varied study area, a broader sampling period (early, mid, and late summer) and fewer

replicates. Nonetheless, general patterns of marine bird distribution were documented. For

example, Common Eider densities were highest in shallow-water areas throughout the study

area, whereas King Eiders were generally found in large flocks in the deep waters of Harrison

Bay. Similarly, Spectacled Eiders were seen inlarge flocks in Harrison Bay. Unlike King

Eiders, however, Spectacled Eiders were uncommon. Offshore survey data also indicated that

Common Eider densities remained relatively stable through summer, while King and Spectacled

Eider densities peaked in July. The timing and location of King and Spectacled Eider

concentrations supports the idea that offshore waters provide a migration corridor for postbreeding Eiders. However, given the Offshore survey is limited to two years of data, it is

difficult to predict timing or routes of migrating birds.

The Near-shore and Offshore surveys indicated several areas that appear to be important

to marine birds. Harrison Bay, particularly the deep-water strata, supported the highest

concentrations of King and Spectacled Eiders. Moreover, this region was relatively important

for Scoters, and Red-throated and Yellow-billed Loons. Barrier Island habitat, too, had the

highest concentrations of Long-tailed Ducks and Common Eiders. In particular, Barrier Island

Habitat among the Stockton Islands had consistently high densities of these species. Although

Mainland Shoreline habitat typically had lower densities than Barrier Island habitat, the shoreline

between Bullen Point and Point Thomson supported high densities of Long-tailed Ducks relative

to other areas in this habitat. Finally, Scoters showed a strong affinity to Mid-lagoon habitat in

western Simpson Lagoon.

79
80
Brackney, A. W., and R. J. King. 1994. Aerial breeding pair surveys of the Arctic Coastal Plain

of Alaska, 1994. Unpubl. Rep. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird

Management, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Brackney, A. W., and R. J. King. 1995. Aerial breeding pair surveys of the Arctic Coastal Plain

of Alaska, 1994. Unpubl. Rep. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird

Management, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Brackney, A. W., and R. J. King. 1996. Aerial breeding pair surveys of the Arctic Coastal Plain

of Alaska, 1995. Unpubl. Rep. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird

Management, Fairbanks, Alaska.

Brown, P. W., and L. H. Fredrickson. 1997. White-winged Scoter (Melanittafusca). In A.

Poole and F. Gill, eds., The Birds of North America, No. 274. The Academy of Natural

Sciences, Philadelphia, and The American Ornithologists' Union, Washington, D.C.

Caughley, G. 1977. Sampling in aerial survey. Journal of Wildlife Management, 41: 605-615.

81
The status of sea ducks in the North Pacific Rim: towards their conservation and

management. Transactions of the fifty-ninth North American wildlife natural resources

conference, 59: 27-49.

Griffiths, W. B., and R. E. Dillinger. 1980. Beaufort Sea barrier island-lagoon ecological

process studies: Final report, Simpson Lagoon. Report by LGL for OCSEAP, NOAA

andBLM.

Harrison, C. 5. 1977. Seasonal distribution and abundance of marine birds. Part 2. Aerial

surveys of marine birds. In Environmental assessment of the Alaskan continental shelf.

Annual reports of Principal Investigators, March 1977, Vol. 3. Boulder, CO: NOAA 285-

593.

Hodges, J. I. 1993. Count- A simulation for learning to estimate wildlife numbers. Wildife (

Society Bulletin 21: 96-97.

Hobman, W. L., C. D. Ankney, and D. H. Gordon. 1992. Ecology and management of

postbreeding waterfowl. Pp. 128-189 in B. D.J. Batt, A. D. Afton, M. G. Anderson, C. D.

Ankney, D. H. Johnson, J. A. Kadlec, and G. L. Krapu, eds. Ecology and management of t

breeding waterfowl. Univ. of Minnesota Press, Minneapolis.

82
Kleinbaum, D. G., L. L. Kupper, and K. E. Muller. 1988. Applied regression analysis and other

multivariate methods, second ed. Duxbury Press, Belmont, California.

Lanctot, R. B., G. Spencer, and P. L. Flint. 2001. Evaluation of the Simpson Lagoon 3D

Seismic Survey (August 2001) on Long-tailed Ducks. Research proposal submitted to

BP Exploration (Alaska.) Inc.

Lamed, W. W., R. M. Platte, and R. A. Stehn. 2001. Eider breeding population survey, Arctic

Coastal Plain, Alaska, 1999-2000. Unpubl. Rep. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory

Bird Management, Soldotna, Alaska.

Mallek, E. J. 2001. Aerial breeding pair surveys of the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska- 2000.

Unpubl. Rep. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management, Fairbanks,

Alaska.

Mallek, E. J., and R. J. King. 2000. Aerial breeding pair surveys of the Arctic Coastal Plain of

Alaska, 1999. Unpubl. Rep. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management,

Fairbanks, Alaska.

83
Beaufort Sea: aircraft and ground observations in 1972 and 1974. Beaufort Sea

Technical Report 3b. Department of the Environment, Victoria, B.C. 257 pp.

Stehn, R. A. and R. M. Platte. 2000. Exposure of birds to assumed oil spills at the Liberty

Project. Unpubl. Rep. U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service, Migratory Bird Management,

Anchorage, Alaska.

SYSTAT. 1997. SYSTAT 7.0 for Windows. SPSS, Inc., Chicago.

Suydam, R. S., D. L. Dickson, J. B. Fadely, and L. T. Quakenbush. 2000. Population declines

of King and Common Eiders of the Beaufort Sea. Condor 102: 2 19-222.

US Army Corps of Engineers. 1999. Final environmental impact statement : Beaufort Sea oil and gas

development, Northstar Project. U.S. Army Engineer District, Alaska. (

USFWS. 1999. Population status and trends of sea ducks in Alaska. U.S. Fish and Wildlife

Service Report, Migratory Bird Management, Anchorage, Alaska.

84

913 28 88 0 0 0 15 40 0 0 25 34 0

914 0 0 0 0 0 7 20 5 0 0 0 0

915 37 294 95 0 28 3 45 35 210 14 74 31

Control

63 0 18 0 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 100 121 62 26 0 0 4 13 35 3 0 0 0 0 245

61 45 4 0 32 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 144

60 28 0 0 61 0 2 4 0 0 0 0 200

133 710 746 388 235 8587 246 727 485 565 112 254 314

134 368 1230 95 141 2452 217 521 15 515 10 261 253

135 572 1176 677 287 818 335 318 101 697 229 182 189

136 853 582 307 206 504 356 750 144 943 118 366 466

183 13 0 0 0 15 83 0 0 0 0 7 0

182 16 21 0 30 61 253 0 80 0 89 12 263

181 24 30 0 476 73 18 0 0 8 49 59 50

180 74 219 147 59 0 238 86 25 227 149 0 49

193 143 629 60 2 13 24 440 5 185 58 124 57

192 1099 1194 150 175 1427 49 913 349 573 98 738 371

191 887 1584 595 170 580 105 411 90 1342 332 249 352

190 310 1100 0 41 310 50 138 89 501 167 75 73

Total 10492 13721 7726 3720 18317 2879 7298 2437 8763 2326 9726 4978

86
9130I400020

0

00

0 914

0I000031500025 915 10

000001200005 63

000000000000 62

0

7

00000000120 61

0112

0

0

00080

6000 60

0100

0

00

0

0254004 133 72 82374 877 388 578 5238106 116 2130 134 170 38 14130 110

94

25237

426 135 3133

8424923

21613I4313 136

18

01012

60II2030 183

045106002000000 182

0620001002860IS 181

00012011000000 180

320000000000 193 20

000300160080 192

8

0

00004443009 191 13

6

001000190320 190

310

01

10

0014041 Total 452 667 510 1330 1089 1173 200 272 444 191 178 211 

87 

Control
0000000000000000 000

00 0 0 0 0 0 000 0 0 00 0 0 0 0 o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 000 0 0 0 00 0000000000000000 00

a

'.. '.. '.. '.. 

A

-000-0000000000 00 00000000000J0-00 00000000000000000 000000000000000 0000000000000000 00

00

0000000000000000 000000000000000000 00

00000
914 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

915 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Control

63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

135 0 0 5 75 0 55 0 0 0 0 0 0

136 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2

183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

182 8 0 0 0 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

181 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0

180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

193 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

192 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

191 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4

190 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 150 31) 105 167 11 60 117 40 86 96 26) 141

89
914 9 18 2 18 5 7 138 99 3 4 6 5

915 14 5 9 5 29 11 60 44 14 18 11 18

Control

63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

62 1 0 4 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 0

61 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 60 0 0 0 13 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

133 1 7 1 31 22 9 1 4 1 1 0 7 134 6 10 4 5 5 3 5 12 2 3 2 18

135 6 5 5 31 21 10 8 5 2 14 3 21

136 13 7 6 4 33 23 9 1 4 0 4 24

183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0

182 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 181 1 0 0 3 1 1 0 0 0 2 1 0

180 7 6 10 2 16 0 6 14 0 1 8 7 193 4 12 4 7 13 1 37 9 0 4 2 13

192 8 3 0 5 52 5 31 7 3 2 4 3

191 57 0 1 2 2 0 22 19 6 2 2 1 190 10 3 0 4 3 1 94 17 9 8 8 10

Total 311 251 223 375 633 269 642 463 130 359 446 306

90
913 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

914 0 220 0 4 0 0 0 80 0 0 0 75

915 0 5 0 25 0 0 27 6 0 0 0 12

Control

63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

135 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

136 10 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

181 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

193 0 156 0 0 12 0 0 12 0 1 0 35

192 0 0 0 0 8 16 0 8 0 0 0 0

191 0 5 2 0 8 18 165 6 0 3 3 0

190 0 2 4 0 0 0 137 41 28 5 3 2

Total 10 483 39 29 62 36 3.46 153 53 95 6 140

91
913 0 9 0 30 3 0 0 0 22 0 20 8

914 0 0 12 0 0 2 0 0 60 0 0 0

915 64 23 40 30 0 0 105 340 133 202 25 47

Coiflrol

63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 0 0 0 0 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

133 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

134 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

135 0 0 0 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6

136 0 0 0 27 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

181 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

180 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

193 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 22 18 0 17 35

192 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0

191 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 75

190 20 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Total 221 119 173 132 64 6 351 469 450 307 156 208

92
913 0 0 0 0 0 0 75 12 0 1 0 5

914 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 730 0 0 0 15

915 0 0 2 215 6 1 0 94 0 2 8 8

Control

63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0

133 0 0 0 0 360 0 0 0 15 10 20 33

134 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0

135 0 0 0 52 13 0 0 15 10 13 10 10

136 0 0 0 0 25 0 0 0 20 0 0 0

183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0

181 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

180 0 0 1 0 0 0 3 8 3 0 1 285

193 0 3 1 0 0 0 4 20 1 0 0 100

192 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

191 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 10 0 0 0 0

190 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 41 0 0 0 0

Total 0 33 694 623 1791 135 86 1071 74 113 54 633

93
-p,-00-00000000 p,00

0,I0-00,I0000000 t,I--Jp,000-0000--0 

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913 1 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 3 0

914 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

915 0 8 0 1 0 0 0 4 3 1 2 1 Control

63 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

62 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

61 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

60 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

133 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

134 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

135 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

136 0 0 7 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0

183 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

182 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

181 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

180 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 0

193 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

192 1 0 0 1 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 0

191 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 5 3 1 0 0

190 0 6 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 2 2

Total 11 26 18 9 8 26 1 17 13 6 26 4

95
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00- 00000000O00O000 

000 0000000N00000000 

000 00000000-00O00 

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00 000000000000000 N 

000 0000000000000000 0 

0 0000000000000000 

ON 000000000000000 0 

000 0000__00000000 

000 0O000-00000000 N
913 3.63 11.41 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.95 5.19 0.00 0.00 3.24 4.41 0.00

914 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.24 3.55 0.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

915 2.86 22.76 7.35 0.00 2.17 0.23 3.48 2.71 16.25 1.08 5.73 2.40

Control

63 0.00 3.13 0.00 0.00 1.22 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.39 21.04

62 5.07 0.00 0.00 0.78 2.53 6.82 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 47.76

61 9.05 0.80 0.00 6.44 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.97

60 5.14 0.00 0.00 11.19 0.00 0.37 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 36.70

133 106.13 111.51 58.00 35.13 1283.56 36.77 108.67 72.50 84.45 16.74 37.97 46.94

134 66.43 222.02 17.15 25.45 442.60 39.17 94.04 2.71 92.96 1.81 47.11 45.67

135 99.65 204.88 117.94 50.00 142.51 58.36 55.40 17.60 121.43 39.90 31.71 32.93

136 134.12 91.51 48.27 32.39 79.25 55.97 117.92 22.64 148.27 45.91 57.55 73.27

183 2.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.61 14.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 0.00

182 2.95 3.87 0.00 5.54 11.25 46.68 0.00 14.76 0.00 16.42 2.21 48.52

181 5.13 6.41 0.00 101.71 15.60 3.85 0.00 0.00 1.71 10.47 12.61 10.68

180 12.69 37.56 25.21 10.12 0.00 40.82 14.75 4.29 38.94 25.56 0.00 8.40

193 18.92 83.20 7.94 0.26 1.72 3.17 58.20 0.66 24.47 7.67 16.40 7.54

192 158.59 172.29 21.65 25.25 205.92 7.07 131.75 50.36 82.68 14.14 106.49 53.54

191 164.56 293.88 110.39 31.54 107.61 19.48 76.25 16.70 248.98 61.60 46.20 65.31

190 47.11 167.17 0.00 6.23 47.11 7.60 20.97 13.53 76.14 25.38 11.40 11.09

97
913 0.00 0.13 0.52 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

914 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 2.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.43

915 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.93 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39

Control (

63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

62 0.00 1.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.34 0.00

61 0.00 22.54 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.10 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 18.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.59 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.73

133 10.76 12.26 55.90 131.09 58.00 86.40 7.77 5.68 15.84 17.34 3.14 4.48

134 30.69 6.86 2.53 23.47 19.86 1.62 0.72 0.36 9.39 6.68 0.72 4.69 (

135 5.40 5.75 1.39 7.32 8.54 4.01 0.35 2.79 2.26 0.17 7.49 2.26

136 0.16 1.26 0.00 1.57 1.89 0.94 0.00 1.73 0.31 0.00 0.47 0.00

183 0.00 7.84 1.74 1.05 0.00 0.00 3.48 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

182 0.00 1.11 3.69 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 5.17 1.11 0.00 3.32

181 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.56 0.00 2.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

180 0.51 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

193 2.65 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.97 0.00 0.13 0.79 0.00 0.00 1.06 0.00 (

192 1.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.58 0.58 6.20 0.00 0.00 1.30

191 2.41 1.11 0.00 0.00 1.86 0.00 0.00 0.19 1.67 0.00 0.56 3.71

190 0.46 1.52 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.13 0.00 0.61 0.15

98
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912 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.10

913 1.56 0.52 0.65 1.43 15.82 1.69 1.04 2.20 0.26 4.54 3.11 1.95

914 1.60 3.19 0.35 3.19 0.89 1.24 24.47 17.55 0.53 0.71 1.06 0.89

915 1.08 0.39 0.70 0.39 2.24 0.85 4.64 3.41 1.08 1.39 0.85 1.39

63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

62 0.19 0.00 0.78 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00

61 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20

60 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.39 0.00 0.73 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

133 0.15 1.05 0.15 4.63 3.29 1.35 0.15 0.60 0.15 0.15 0.00 1.05

134 1.08 1.81 0.72 0.90 0.90 0.54 0.90 2.17 0.36 0.54 0.36 3.25

135 1.05 0.87 0.87 5.40 3.66 1.74 1.39 0.87 0.35 2.44 0.52 3.66

136 2.04 1.10 0.94 0.63 5.19 3.62 1.42 0.16 0.63 0.00 0.63 3.77

183 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.05 0.00

182 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.18 0.18

181 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.64 0.21 0.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.21 0.00

180 1.20 1.03 1.72 034 2.74 0.00 1.03 2.40 0.00 0.17 1.37 1.20

193 0.53 1.59 0.53 0.93 1.72 0.13 4.89 1.19 0.00 0.53 0.26 1.72

192 1.15 0.43 0.00 0.72 7.50 0.72 4.47 1.01 0.43 0.29 0.58 0.43

191 10.58 0.00 0.19 0.37 0.37 0.00 4.08 3.53 1.11 0.37 0.37 0.19

190 1.52 0.46 0.00 0.61 0.46 0.15 14.29 2.58 1.37 1.22 1.22 1.52

101

Control
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00-c000-0000 000
912 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.20 0.00

913 0.13 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.39

914 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

915 0.31 0.70 0.08 0.00 0.23 0.23 0.15 0.00 0.39 0.15 0.23 0.31

63 0.00 0.52 0.17 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

62 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.19 0.39 0.58 1.36 0.00 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.19

61 0.40 0.20 0.00 0.40 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.20

60 0.18 0.37 0.00 0.18 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.00 0.00

133 0.00 0.45 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

134 0.00 0.36 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.54 0.00 0.36 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00

135 0.00 0.52 0.17 0.17 0.35 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

136 0.16 0.00 0.31 0.63 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.16

183 0.87 0.00 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.00

182 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.55

181 0.43 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.00 0.00

180 0.00 0.00 0.51 0.00 5.32 0.00 0.17 0.34 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.00

193 0.13 1.06 0.13 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.00 0.26 0.26 0.40 0.00 0.26

192 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.29 0.29 1.01

191 0.19 0.00 0.56 0.37 0.37 0.19 0.56 0.74 0.56 0.19 0.56 0.19

190 0.15 0.46 0.15 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.15 0.46 0.00 0.30

105

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914 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.81 1.51 0.63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

915 1.35 3.17 2.12 0.00 1.15 0.21 1.50 1.31 2.85 0.73 1.91 1.22

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63 0.00 1.42 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.91 3.09

62 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.58 1.26 2.06 0.46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.89

61 2.31 0.59 0.00 2.01 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.40

60 1.81 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.31 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.63

133 4.67 4.72 4.08 3.59 7.16 3.63 4.70 4.30 4.45 2.88 3.66 3.87

134 4.21 5.41 2.90 3.28 6.09 3.69 4.55 1.31 4.54 1.03 3.87 3.84

135 4.61 5.33 4.78 3.93 4.97 4.08 4.03 2.92 4.81 3.71 3.49 3.52

136 4.91 4.53 3.90 3.51 4.39 4.04 4.78 3.16 5.01 3.85 4.07 4.31

183 1.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.28 2.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00

182 1.37 1.58 0.00 1.88 2.51 3.86 0.00 2.76 0.00 2.86 1.17 3.90

181 1.81 2.00 0.00 4.63 2.81 1.58 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.44 2.61 2.46

180 2.62 3.65 3.27 2.41 0.00 3.73 2.76 1.67 3.69 3.28 0.00 2.24

193 2.99 4.43 2.19 0.23 1.00 1.43 4.08 0.51 3.24 2.16 2.86 2.14

192 5.07 5.15 3.12 3.27 5.33 2.09 4.89 3.94 4.43 2.72 4.68 4.00

191 5.11 5.69 4.71 3.48 4.69 3.02 4.35 2.87 532 4.14 3.85 4.19

190 3.87 5.12 0.00 1.98 3.87 2.15 3.09 2.68 4.35 3.27 2.52 2.49

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915 0.57 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.66 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33

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63 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

62 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.21 0.00

61 0.00 3.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.84 0.79 0.00 0.00 0.00

60 0.00 2.96 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.72 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.55

133 2.46 2.58 4.04 4.88 4.08 4.47 2.17 1.90 2.82 2.91 1.42 1.70

134 3.46 2.06 1.26 3.20 3.04 0.96 0.54 0.31 2.34 2.04 0.54 1.74

135 1.86 1.91 0.87 2.12 2.26 1.61 0.30 1.33 1.18 0.16 2.14 1.18

136 0.15 0.81 0.00 0.94 1.06 0.66 0.00 1.00 0.27 0.00 0.39 0.00

183 0.00 2.18 1.01 0.72 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

182 0.00 0.75 1.55 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 1.82 0.75 0.00 1.46

181 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.27 0.00 1.21 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

180 0.42 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

193 1.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.12 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00

192 0.77 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.46 0.46 1.97 0.00 0.00 0.83

191 1.23 0.75 0.00 0.00 1.05 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.98 0.00 0.44 1.55

190 0.38 0.92 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.14 0.00 0.47 0.14

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62 0.18 0.00 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00

61 0.00 0.47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.18

60 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.22 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

133 0.14 0.72 0.14 1.73 1.46 0.85 0.14 0.47 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.72

134 0.73 1.03 0.54 0.64 0.64 0.43 0.64 1.15 0.31 0.43 0.31 1.45

135 0.fl 0.63 0.63 1.86 1.54 1.01 0.87 0.63 0.30 1.24 0.42 1.54

136 1.11 0.74 0.66 0.49 1.82 1.53 0.88 0.15 0.49 0.00 0.49 1.56

183 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.72 0.00

182 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 0.17 0.17

181 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.19 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 036 0.19 0.00

180 0.79 0.71 1.00 0.29 1.32 0.00 0.71 1.22 0.00 0.16 0.86 0.79

193 0.42 0.95 0.42 0.66 1.00 0.12 1.77 0.78 0.00 0.42 0.23 1.00

192 0.77 0.36 0.00 0.54 2.14 0.54 1.70 0.70 0.36 0.25 0.46 0.36

191 2.45 0.00 0.17 032 0.32 0.00 1.63 1.51 0.75 0.32 0.32 0.17

190 0.92 0.38 0.00 0.47 0.38 0.14 2.73 1.28 0.86 0.80 0.80 0.92

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63 0.00 0.42 0.16 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00

62 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.18 0.33 0.46 0.86 0.00 0.18 0.00 0.00 0.18

61 0.34 0.18 0.00 0.34 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.18 0.34 0.00 0.00 0.18

60 0.17 0.31 0.00 0.17 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.00 0.00 0.00

133 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

134 0.00 0.31 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.43 0.00 0.31 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00

135 0.00 0.42 0.16 0.16 0.30 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

136 0.15 0.00 0.27 0.49 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 0.15

183 0.63 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.00

182 0.00 0.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.55 0.00 0.00 0.44

181 0.36 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 0.00 0.00 0.00

180 0.00 0.00 0.42 0.00 1.84 0.00 0.16 0.29 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.00

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191 0.17 0.00 0.44 0.32 0.32 0.17 0.44 0.56 0.44 0.17 0.44 0.17

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