## 20 09 Projection Inventory

and

2009 PM2.5 Emissions Inventory Attainment Demonstration

f

or the

Northern New Jersey PM2.5 SIP

Technical Support Document

June 6 , 201 12 

## PREFACE

This document is to support EPA's evaluation of the 2 0 09 projecti on modeling inventories and inventory

attainment demonstration included in New Jersey’s PM2.5 State Implementation Plan (SIP) for t he Northern

New Jersey (NNJ) portion of the PM2.5 nonattainment area

. The NNJ area consists of the following counties:

Berge n, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset and Union. The intended

effect of this action is to evaluate inventory components required by the Clean Air Act ( CAA ) which result in

emission reductions that will help contribute to attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for

PM2.5 . This document contains a detailed review of the New Jersey ’s submittal. Among the topics discussed

below are: background

, riteria for approval and EPA ’ s final recommendation.



## BACKGROUN D

Emission Inventory Requirements and Inventory Attainment Demonstration

States are required under the Section 172 (c) of the CAA to develop emissions inventories of point, area, and

mobile sources for their attainment demonstrations. These inventories provide a detailed accounting of all

emissions and emissions sources by precursor or pollutant. In addition, inventories are used to model air quality

to demonstrate that attainment of the NAAQS can be met by the deadline, which

, in this case

, is for the 1 997

PM2.5 NAAQS. Emissions reporting requirements for PM2.5 are given in the EPA published document

Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze

Regulations , (EPA

– 454/R

– 99

– 006). This guidance was updated in November 2005 (EPA

– 454/R

– 05

– 001).

In accordance with November 2005 guidance, the PM2.5 implementation rule required states to submit

inventory information on directly emitted PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors and any additional inventory

information ne eded to support an attainment demonstration (where applicable).

Also i n accordance with Section 172 (c) of the CAA and with the PM2.5 implementation rule, the attainment

plan submitted by the State for the NNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area should include: 1) emission inventories for

the plan’s base year (2002) and projection year (2009) and an attainment demonstration

, 2) The attainment

demonstration should include (a) technical analyses that locate, identify, and quantify sources of emissions

contributing to violations of the 1997 annual [and/or daily] PM2.5 NAAQS

, (b) analyses of future

- year

emissions reductions and air

- quality improvements expected to result from national and local air pollution

control programs

, and (c) adopted emission

- reduction measures w ith schedules for implementation.

The 2009 Projection Inventory and I nventory and 2009 Inventory Attainment Demonstration3 The State is required to include in the PM2.5 SIP 1) 2002 base year inventory, 2) 2009 projection inventories

and 3) a 2009 inven tory attainment demonstration. T he SIPs must demonstrate that the 2002 base year

inventory

, projected t o 20 09 with growth

, include control measures and rules that are adequate to provide for the

timely attainment in reducing emissions from pollutants the contribute PM2.5 nonattainment in order to reach

20 09 attainment inventory emission levels.

There are general and specific components for an acceptable 20 09 projection inventor y and inventory attainment

demonstration . In general, the State must submit a revision to its SIP and the aforementioned components must

meet certain minimum requirements for reporting by source category. Specifically, the source requirements are

detailed below.

A review process is used to determine that all components of the pro jection inventories and inventory

attainment demonstration are present. The review also evaluates the level of supporting documentation

provided by the State and assesses whether the emissions were developed according to current EPA or

acceptable alternat ive guidance.



## CRITERIA FOR APPROVAL

Projection and Inventory Attainment Demonstration

There are several points that the projection inventories and i nventory attainment demonstration must adequately

address. For the projection inventories and inventory attainment demonstration to be acceptable they must pass

the following acceptance criteria:

1. W ere the 20 09 projection inventories developed in accordance with the procedures outlined EPA’s

latest guidance 1,3,4,6,7 ?

2. Were the Plans developed in accorda nce with EPA’s latest guidance for Growth Factors,

Projections, and Control Strategies for R easonable Progress Goal Plans 1,3,4,6,7 ?

DETAILED ACTION AND EVALUATION

This portion of the report contains a discussion and summary of the review conducted by EPA for the 20 09

projection inventories and inventory attainment demonstration

.4 

### Section 1: 2002 BASE YEAR INVENTORY

Calculation of 2002 Base Year Emission Inventory

The reader is referred to Region 2’s document entitled New Jersey State 2002 Base Ye ar Inventory SIP

Technical Support Documentation for details on the approval of New Jersey ’s 2002 base year inventory

. EPA

proposed to approve New Jersey’s 2002 Base Year inventories on May 9, 2006, (71 FR 26895) and approved

the emission inventories on J uly 10, 2006 (71 FR 38770). The reader is referred to these rulemakings for

additional information concerning the emission inventories and EPA’s approval.

Table 1 below shows the revised 2002 modeling base year PM2.5, NO

x and SO2 emission inventories f or the

Northern New Jersey PM2.5 nonattainment area

.

T able 1

2002 Northern New Jersey PM2.5 Modeling Base Year Inventory ( in Tons/ Year )

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 2,790 8,636 2,824 1,547 15,797

NO X 34,432 18,428 42 ,661 102,997 198,518

SO X 37,750 6,242 6,654 2,244 52,8 905 

## Section 2: Calculation of 2009 Projection Year Emission Inventories

A projection of 2002 PM2.5, NOx, and SO 2 anthropogenic emissions to 20 09 is required to determine the

emission reductions nee ded for inventory attainment demonstration

. The 20 09 projection year emission

inventories are calculated by multiplying the 2002 base year inventory by factors which estimate growth from

2002 to 20 09 . A specific growth factor for each source type in th e inventory is required since sources typically

grow at different rates.

Projection Methodology

Major Point Sources

Electric Generat ing Unit s (EGU)

For the major point source category, the projected emissions inventories were first calculated by estimating

growth in each source category. As appropriate

, the 2002 emissions inventory was used as the base for applying

factors to account for inventory growth. The point source inventory was grow n from the 200 2 in ventory to 20 09

for each facility using growth factors utilized in IPM model to forecast growth based on the following

variables/factors : electric demand ; natural gas, oil and coal supply forecasts; pollution control and performance ;

capacity cost and perf ormance

, and replacement of older less efficient and polluting power plants with newer

more efficient units to meet future growth and state b y sta t e NOx and SOx caps.

T he reader is referred to Section 5 .2.2.2.2 and Appendix B5 of NJDEP S IP Revision for th e Attainment and

Maintenance of the Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS , dated March 24, 2010

. This document provides further

details and references on how projections were performed.

Non

- Electric Generating Units ( Non

- EGU s )

For the major point source category , the projected emissions inventories were first calculated by estimating

growth in each source category. As appropriate, the 2002 emissions inventory was used as the base for applying

factors to account for inventory growth. The point source inventory w as grown from the 2002 inventory to 20 09

for each facility based on source classification codes using growth factors generated from EPA’s Economic

Growth Analysis System (EGAS) version 5 .0

, United States Department of Energy’s (USDOE) Annual Energy

Outlook Projections (AEO) 2005, state supplied population and empl o yment data, where appropriate.

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS , dated March 24,2010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2009,

2012 and 2009 for Non

- EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE

- VU Region, Final Report

, dated February 2007 . Th ese document s provide further details and references on how projections were6 perfo rmed.

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey ’s methodology for projecting point sources to be

acceptable.

Area Sources

For the area source category, New Jersey projected emissions from 2002 to 2009 using growth factors from

USDOE AEO 200 7 , state supplied population and employment data, where appropriate.

This is in accordance with EPA ’ s recommended growth indicators for projecting e missions for area source

categories as outlined in EPA Guidance. 1,3,4,6,7

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS , dated March 24,2010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2009,

2012 and 2018 for Non

- EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE

- VU Region, Final Report

, dated February 2007

. Th ese document s provide further details and references on how projections were

performed.

Since t hese methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6, 7 EPA finds New Jersey ’s methodology for projecting area sources to be

acceptable.

Non

- Road Mobile Sources

Non

- road vehicle equipment emissions were projected from 2002 to 20 09 using the EPA’s National Mobile

Inventory Model (NMIM) 2 005 . N MIM 2005 contains growth factors, which are based on the historical trends

in nonroad equipment activity. This model was use to calc ulate past and future emission inventories for all

nonroad equipment categories except commercial marine vessels, locomotives and aircrafts. Emissions were

determined on a monthly basis and combined to provide annual emission estimates

.

Aircrafts , Locomo tives and Commercial Marine Vessels (CMV)

Aircraft , l ocomotives and CMV emissions were projected based on combined growth and control factors from

USEPA Clean Air Interstate Rule ( CAIR ) by determining the level of emissions and their associated ratios

bet ween 2002 base and 2025 projection year. From this point, the State determin e d the ratio of emissions

between 2002 and 2009 projection year using linear interpolation. The ratio s between 2002 and 2009 were7 determined and then multiplied by the 2002 base year to determine 2009 projection year emissions.

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS , dated March , 2010 010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2 009,

2012 and 2018 for Non

- EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE

- VU Region, Final Report

, dated February 2007

. Th ese document s provide further details and references on how projections were

performed.

Since these methodologies and growt h indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6, 7 EPA finds New Jersey ’s methodology for projecting non

- road mobile sources to

be acceptable.

Onroad Mobile Sources

For the onroad mobile source categor y, the primary indicator and tool for developing on

- road mobile growth

and expected emissions are vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and US EPA ’ s mobile emissions model Mobile 6.2.03

(Mobile6 .2 ) . The 20 09 pollutant emission factors were generated by Mobile 6 .2 ( with the associated controlled

measures applied

, w h ere appropriate) and applied to the monthly V MT projections provided by the State

. Month l y emissions were then combined to develop annual emission estimates.

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS , dated March 24, 2010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2009,

2012 and 2018 for Non

- EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE

- VU Region, Fi nal Report

, dated February 2007

. This document provides further details and references on how projections were performed.

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined

in EPA Guidance, 1,3, 4,6, 7 EPA finds New Jersey ’s methodology for projecting on

- road mobile sources to be

acceptable.

Table 2 A show s the 20 09 projection emission inventories controlled after 2002 using the aforementioned

growth indicators/methodologies for the NNJ PM2.5 nonat tainment area

. Table 2B show s the 2002

- 20 09

emission control measures for the NNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area

.8 Table 2 A

200 9 Northern New Jersey PM2.5 Modeling Projection Year Inventory (Controlled)

( in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 3,169 8,332 2,295 956 14,752

NO X 13,378 16,502 33,714 50,097 113,69 1

SO X 18,616 6,208 1,530 457 26,811910 Table 2B

PM NOx SO2

PM2.5 Control Measure Summary

Sector Attainment

2009

Modeling Control

Measure s Not

Captured in the

2009 Regional

Modeling Attainment

(2009)

Contingency

Federal Residential Woodstove NSPS Area X X X

Federal Energy Conservation Standards for New Federal

Commercial and Multi

- Family High

- Rise Residential

Buildings and New Feder al Low

- Rise Residential

Buildings Area X

Federal Nonroad Diesel Engines Nonroad X X X X

Federal Large Industrial Spark

- Ignition Engines over 19 kW Nonroad X X

Federal Recreational Vehicles (includes snowmobiles, off

highway motorcycles, and all

- terrain vehicles) Nonroad X X

Federal Diesel Marine Engines over 37 kW Nonroad X X X

Federal Phase 2 Standards for Small Spark

- Ignition

Handheld Engines at or below 19 kW Nonroad X X

Federal Phase 2 Standards for New Nonroad Spark

- Ignitio n

Nonhandheld Engines at or below 19 kW Nonroad X X

Federal New Nonroad Engine Standards Nonroad X X X X11 Federal Locomotive Engines and Marine Compression

Ignition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder Nonroad X X X X

Federal Tier 1 Vehicle Program Onroad X X X

Federal National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) Onroad X X X

Federal Tier 2 Vehicle Program/Low Sulfur Fuels Onroad X X X X

Federal Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle (HDDV) Defeat Device

Settlement Onroad X X

Federal Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle (HDDV) Engine

Standards Onroad X X X X

Federal Acid Rain Point X X X

Federal USEPA MACT Standards including Industrial

Boiler/Process Heater MACT Point X X

Federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) Point X X X

Federal Re finery Consent Decrees (Sunoco, Valero, and

ConocoPhillips) Point X X X

Federal Refinery Consent Decrees (Sunoco, Valero) Point X a X a X X

New Jersey Smoke Management Area X

New Jersey Nonroad Motor Vehicle Control Programs (Fleet

turnover 20 10) Nonroad X X X X

New Jersey Ports Nonroad X

New Jersey New Jersey Heavy Duty Diesel Rules Including

"Not

- To

- Exceed" (NTE) Requirements Onroad X X X

New Jersey On

- Board Diagnostics (OBD)

– (I/M) Program for

Gasoline Vehicles Onroad X X

New Jersey New Jersey Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Program Onroad X X12 New Jersey Onroad Motor Vehicle Control Programs (Fleet

turnover 2010) Onroad X X X X

New Jersey Diesel Idling Rule Changes Onroad X X

New Jersey Diesel Smoke (I/M Cutpoint) R ule Changes Onroad X

New Jersey NO

x Budget Program (SIP Call) Point X X

New Jersey ICI Boiler Rule 2009 b Point X X

New Jersey Controls from EGU Consent Decrees (PSE&G

Mercer) Point X X X X

New Jersey Controls from EGU Consent Decrees ( PSE&G

Hudson NO

x ) Point X X X X

New Jersey Nonattainment New Source Review (NNSR) Point X

New Jersey Asphalt Production Plants Rule Point X X

New Jersey Glass Manufacturing Point X

New Jersey High Electric Demand Day (HEDD) Program Poi nt X

New Jersey #6 Fuel Oil

- Fired Boilers Point X

New Jersey Stationary Diesel Engines Point X

New Jersey Case by Case NO

x Emission Limit Determinations

(FSELs/AELs) Point X

New Jersey Municipal Waste Combustors (Incinerators) NO

x

p ortion Point X X

New Jersey Municipal Waste Combustors (Incinerators) PM

portion Point X

New Jersey Refinery Rules (FCCUs, Flares, Process Heaters,

and Boilers) Point X

New Jersey Controls from EGU Consent Decrees (PSE&G

Hudson SO 2 ) Point X X

New Jersey NO

x RACT Rule 2006 (portion not modeled) Point X X13 New Jersey ICI Boiler Rule 2009 (portion not modeled) Point X X

New Jersey NO

x RACT Rule (2006) Point and

Area X X

New Jersey Fugitive Dust at Stationary Sources Point an d

Area X

New Jersey Low Sulfur Distillate and Residual Fuel Strategies Point and

Area X1415 

## Section 3: 200 9 Inventory Attainment Demonstration

Section 3A: Inventory Attainment Demonstration Requirements 1,2,3,4,5,6,7

1. For the NNJ area

, PM2.5 pollutant precursors’ annual emissions should be projected from the 2002 base

to the future 20 09 year . Provide summary of emissions for point, area, nonroad and onroad mobile

sources.

2. State must provide a demonstration which shows that the 2002 base proj ected to 20 09 ( with growth and

controls) will reach 20 09 controlled emission levels. Provide summary of emissions for point, area,

nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources.

3. Provide an explanation on how the 20 09 point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mob ile source

projection inventories are developed.

Section 3 B: How New Jersey Meets the Criteria for t he 2009 Inventory Attainment Demonstration

• For the New Jersey

, PM2.5 annual emissions should be projected from the 2002 base to the future

20 09 year. P rovide summary of emissions for point, area, nonroad and onroad mobile sources.

Sections 1 and 2, provide detailed answer s to these questions. New Jersey has satisfied the criteria for 2002

base year projected to 20 09 ( c ontrolled) projection inventory re quirements.

• State must provide a demonstration which shows that the 2002 base projected to 20 09 ( with

growth and controls) will reach 20 09 controlled emission levels. Provide summary of emissions for

point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources.

Sections 1 and 2, provide deta iled answers to these questions. New Jersey has satisfied the criteria for 2002

base year projected to 20 09 (controlled) projection inventory requirements.

• Provide an explanation on how the 20 09 point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile source

projection inventories are developed.

Sections 1 and 2, provide detailed answers to these questions. New Jersey has satisfied the criteria for 2002

base year projected to 20 09 (controlled) projection inventory requirements.16 E mission Inventory Guidance Documents

1 Emission Inventory Improvement Program guidance document titled Volume X, Emission Projections

, dated

December 1999

2 Draft Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for PM2.5 SIPs , dated August 2010

3 Guidance for Growth Factor s, Projections, and Control Strategies for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans

, dated March 1993

4 Guidance on the Post

- 1996 Rate of Progress Plan and Attainment Demonstration , dated January 1994

5 Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze

Regulation , dated August 2005

6 EPA’s follow

- up memo “ 8

- Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards Implementation

- Reasonable

Further Progress (RFP) , dated August 2006

7 Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstration Attainment of Air Quality Goals for

Ozone, PM2.5 and Regional Haze , dated April 2007