PARTS PER BILLION

-57-
EXHIBIT 29

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR
ALTERNATIVE STRINGENCY LEVELS
WITH 100% PARTICIPATION AND A CH3CC13 FREEZE:
90% REDUCTION; 95% REDUCTION; 97% REDUCTION; 100% REDUCTION

2.0
18 4

16 4

0.2 4
04 4
06 4
08 4

-1.0 T T T
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Assumptions;
o Reductions simulated in place of the 50% Protocol Reduction.
o 100% Global Participation.

o CH3CC13 use frozen at 1986 levels in 1989.

o Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050,

90%

95%
97%

100%


EXHIBIT B-44
100 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 Ccl4 cCH3CCl3 H: 4211 H-130

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 866.4 6.2 5.0
2000 191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 992.9 9.9 5.8
2005 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 1123.4 14.8 6.9
2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0 4 2.2 0 1271.0 19.7 B.4
2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 0 0 35 +0 1438.1 24.2 9.9
2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0 0 3 ~0 = 1627.0 29.0 11.3
2025 9.5 3.3 407.0 0 0 .0 0 1840.9 33.6 13.1
2030 0 0 460.4 0 0 .0 0 = 2082.8 38.9 15.

2035 -0 0 520.9 0 «0 0 ~0 2356.5 45.0 17.3
2040 «0 0 589.4 0 0 0 -0 2666.1 52.0 20.

2045 +0 0 666.9 0 0 0 -0 = 3016.5 60.2 23.4
2050 0 +0 754.5 0 0 0 0 3412.9 69.6 27.4
2055 0 0 815.1 0 0 .0 “0 3412.9 78.7 30.5
2060 0 0 852.2 0 0 0 -0 3412.9 86.7 33.1
2065 0 0 875.5 10 .0 .0 0 3412.9 93.9 35.3
2070 0 0 879.1 +0 0 0 «0 3412.9 99.4 37.3
2075 .0 0 879.1 0 .0 .0 -0 3412.9 100.2 38.8
2080 0 0 879.1 0 .0 a) ~0 3412.9 100.8 39.6
2085 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 20 3412.9 100.8 40.3
2090 a) 0 879.1 0 0 +0 -0 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2095 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 -0 3412.9 100.8 40.5

2100 0 -0 879.1 0 0 0 +0 3412.9 100.8 40.5


-25-

phaseouts would reduce the size of the increases in chlorine by about 2 ppbv
by 2100. Even with 100 percent participation, however, the chlorine levels
increase from current values

Exhibit 29 displays the estimated chlorine levels for the case when
CH3CC13 is assumed to be frozen at 1986 levels starting in 1989. When
compared to Exhibit 28, this exhibit shows that the continued growth in
CH3CC13 contributed to the continued increase in chlorine relative to current
levels over the long term. By virtually phasing out the CFCs and freezing
CH3CC13 at 1986 levels, chlorine increases are kept below 1 ppbv by 2100.

These results, however, do not include two factors that may increase
future chlorine levels. As discussed in the previous sections, ozone-
depleting compounds may be substituted for foregone CFCs. Exhibit 30 shows
that "“one-for-two" substitution may increase the estimated chlorine levels
somewhat. 27 Similarly, Exhibit 31 shows the implications of both substitution
and continued growth in compound use following 2050.28 Even with 100 percent
global compliance, the assumptions of continued growth and "one-for-two"
compound substitution combine to result in estimated chlorine increases by
2100 for the four stringency levels.

Of interest is that a tradeoff between stringency and substitution
exists. For example, Exhibit 32 shows that the 90 percent reduction with one-
to-five substitution yields approximately the same chlorine increases as a 100

percent reduction with a one-to-three or one-to-2.5 substitution. The

27 as discussed in previous sections, the substitute is assumed to have
the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22. Also, "“one-for-two" substitution
is considered to be an upper bound for likely future substitution.

28 Assuming 100 percent compliance, the continued growth after 2050
affects only the use of HCFC-22 (which is not controlled) and the level of
substitutes used. Continued growth after 2050 results in larger amounts of
substitutes being used after 2050.


Cc-2

This appendix presents estimates of ozone depletion for several emission
and trace gas scenarios. The model used to estimate ozone depletion is
described in Connell (1986) and EPA (1987). In light of the recent findings
of the Ozone Trends Panel (1988), ozone depletion estimates based on results
from 1-D models are called into question. Consequently, the ozone depletion
estimates presented here may be considerable underestimates of potential near
term depletion.

Exhibit C-1 displays estimated ozone depletion for the following three
scenarios: No Controls; Protocol; and True Global Freeze. The No Controls
scenario assumes that compound use will grow at an annual average rate of 2.8
percent per year through 2050, followed by no growth. As shown in the
exhibit, such unconstrained growth is expected to lead to significant
depletion. The Protocol and True Global Freeze scenarios are estimated to
result in much less depletion, although as is indicated in the exhibit by the
arrows, the values for these cases may be underestimated. The Protocol
scenario has the following participation assumptions: U.S. participation; 94
percent of other developed nations; and 65 percent of developing nations. The
True Global Freeze scenario assumes that all chlorine-containing compounds are
frozen in 1989 at their 1986 levels, and that 100 percent global participation
is achieved.

The ozone depletion estimates are influenced not only by emissions of
chlorine-containing compounds, but also by the future concentrations of key
greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide (C02); nitrous oxide (N20); and methane
(CH4). Although the chlorine concentrations in the Protocol and True Global

Freeze scenarios are increasing through 2100, the ozone depletion expected


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-70

B-76

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-14 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFE-115 CCl4  CH3CCL3 H-1214 H-1304
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8
176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9

91.6 89.1 280.3 0 4 2.2 0 664.0 19.7 B.4
60.4 36.6 317.8 0 0 5 0 664.0 24.2 9.9
16.0 17.8 359.7 0 0 3 0 664.0 29.0 11.3
9.5 3.3 407.0 -0 0 0 0 664.0 33.6 13.1
-0 0 460.4 0 0 0 0 664.0 38.9 15.1
0 0 520.9 -0 0 0 -0 664.0 45.0 17.3
-0 0 589.4 0 0 +0 -0 664.0 52.0 20.1
0 0 666.9 0 +0 0 0 664.0 60.2 23.4
0 0 754.5 0 0 0 0 664.0 69.6 27.4
0 0 815.1 -0 0 0 0 664.0 78.7 30.5
0 0 852.2 0 -0 -0 0 664.0 86.7 33.1
0 0 875.5 .0 0 0 +0 664.0 93.9 35.3
0 0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 99.4 37.3
0 .0 879.1 0 0 +0 0 664.0 100.2 38.8
.0 0 879.1 0 0 0 -0 664.0 100.8 39.6
0 .0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.3
0 0 879.1 .0 -0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
0 0 879.1 -0 0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
0 0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5


FUTURE CONCENTRATIONS OF STRATOSPHERIC
CHLORINE AND BROMINE

by

John S. Hoffman
Director, Division of Global Change
Office of Air and Radiation
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

and

Michael J. Gibbs

July 1988


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075

2080
2085

2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-40

100 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cola CH3CCL3 H-4214 H-1301
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8
359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 6.2 5.0
216.0 272.8 206.1 42.4 5.4 5.8 34.1 992.9 9.9 5.8
211.9 223.5 245.4 40.0 3.7 4.2 31.7 1123.4 14.8 6.9
155.8 164.1 280.3 26.5 2.4 2.8 18.9 = 1271.0 19.7 8.4
133.0 126.5 317.8 28.0 2.3 1.3 20.0 1438.1 24.2 9.9

97.3 117.3 359.7 29.6 2.4 1.2 21.2 1627.0 29.0 11.3
98.2 114.2 407.0 31.3 2.6 1.4 22.5 1840.9 33.6 13.1
97.4 118.7 460.4 33.1 2.7 1.1 23.8 2082.8 38.9 15.

103.2 125.8 520.9 34.9 2.9 1.2 25.2 © 2356.5 45.0 17.3
109.3 133.3 589.4 36.9 3.0 1.3 26.7 2666.1 52.0 20.1
115.8 141.3 666.9 39.0 3.2 1.4 28.3 3016.5 60.2 23.4
122.7 149.7 754.5 41.3 3.4 1.4 30.0 3412.9 69.6 27.4
124.4 152.4 815.1 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 3412.9 78.7 30.5
125.8 154.0 852.2 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 3412.9 86.7 33.1
126.8 155.4 875.5 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 93.9 35.3

127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 99.4 37.3
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 100.2 38.8
127.5 155.7 879.1 3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 100.8 39.6
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 100.8 40.3
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 100.8 40.5
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 100.8 40.5
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 3412.9 100.8 40.5


A-2

This appendix presents the concentrations model used to evaluate the
potential increases in stratospheric inorganic chlorine levels, Clx. The
method is taken from Connell (1986) and is based on a simplified
representation of the exponential decay of abundances of each compound. The
rate of decay is defined by an estimate of each compound’s lifetime.

Of note is that the method recognizes that each of the compounds has
slightly different "efficiencies" with which its chlorine can perturb
stratospheric ozone. The greater a compound’s efficiency, the larger the
impact its chlorine will have on stratospheric ozone. For example, HCFC-22
dissociates (and consequently injects its chlorine) at a different altitude
than does CFC-11. Therefore, its chlorine is less efficient at depleting
stratospheric ozone. The estimates of chlorine abundances produced by this
method adjust for these relative efficiencies so that the total change in
chlorine abundances summed across the compounds is a consistent measure of the
potential impact on stratospheric ozone.

The estimates of changes in Clx from 1985 levels are driven by the
following data:

° Emissions: the emissions for each of the scenarios
examined are presented in Appendix B.

° Lifetimes: the “e-folding" lifetimes of each of the
compounds is presented in Exhibit 1 of the main text.
These lifetimes (taken from Connell, 1986) were evaluated
from a series of 1-D model runs with total column ozone
depletions of around 10 percent (Connell 1986, p.5).
Lower levels of depletion would result in higher estimates
of the lifetimes, and consequently higher estimates of
Clx. This downward bias in the estimates of Clx exists
for the Protocol scenario examined in the main text, and
the scenarios in which Clx is stabilized.

° Conversion Factors: the factors that convert emissions
(in millions of kilograms) into abundances of Clx are
presented in Exhibit 1 of the main text. These conversion
factors reflect the number of chlorine atoms per molecule,
the molecular weight of the molecule, the relative
efficiency of the compound's chlorine at depleting ozone,


APPENDIX C


Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

B-52:

B-53:

B-54:

B-55:

B-56:

B-57:

B-58:

B-59:

B-60:

B-61:

B-62:

B-6

EXHIBIT B-1 (Continued)
LIST OF EXHIBITS IN APPENDIX B

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1

95 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1

97 Percent. Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1998
- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

95 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1998
- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1998
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1998
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998
- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

95 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1


-15-
Although CH3CC13 is relatively more important in the Protocol scenario as
compared with the No Controls scenario, the actual Clx contribution from the
compound is the same for the two cases; the increased relative importance of
CH3CC13 in the Protocol scenario is due to reductions in the contributions of
the other compounds. As shown in the exhibit, under the Protocol assumptions,
the contribution of CH3CC13 to Clx levels (e.g., about 35 percent in 2075)
could become more important than the contribution of CFC-11 or CFC-12 (about
25 percent each in 2075).

Exhibit 11 shows the relative contribution from each compound for the
True Global Freeze scenario (in this scenario the use of all the compounds is
frozen). As shown in the exhibit, CFCs 11, 12, and 113 grow in importance due
to their relatively long lifetimes. CH3CC13 and HCFC-22, with their short
lifetimes, become relatively less important.!’ The other CFCs (CFC-114 and
CFC-115) make relatively little contribution despite their long lifetimes
because of their small levels of emissions.

Exhibit 12 shows the relative contribution across the compounds for the
Protocol scenario with CH3CC13 frozen at 1986 levels starting in 1989. As
expected, the relative contribution of CH3CC13 is reduced significantly.

It should be emphasized that neither HCFC-22 nor CH3CC13 grow faster in
the above analyses due to the Protocol restrictions on CFC-11, CFC-12, or CFC-

113. This assumption is relaxed below.

17 of note is that a key factor that will influence the future chlorine
contributions of the partially-halogenated compounds is the future level of
the OH radical in the troposphere. The OH radical is primarily responsible
for the oxidation of the partially-halogenated compounds in the troposphere,
thereby keeping their lifetimes short and their chlorine contributions low.
The OH radical is itself influenced by many factors, including methane (CH4)
and carbon monoxide (CO) levels. If CH4 and CO increase beyond levels now
contemplated, or if their effects on the OH radical are greater than now
believed, then the lifetimes of the partially-halogenated compounds (such as
CH3CC13) would increase and their contributions of chlorine to the
stratosphere would also increase.


EXHIBIT B-49
90 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 = 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.1
2000 213.3 271.0 206.1 49.4 5.7 5.9 34.7 664.0 9.9 5.8 422.5
2005 201.1 216.9 245.4 43.3 3.8 4.4 29.4 664.0 14.8 6.9 575.3
2010 126.5 134.5 280.3 23.2 1.9 2.8 10.8 664.0 19.7 8.4 765.3
2015 98.0 88.2 317.8 23.2 1.6 1.3 10.8 664.0 24.2 9.9 923.3
2020 58.9 71.3 359.7 23.2 1.6 1.1 10.8 664.0 29.0 11.3 1085.7
2025 52.9 58.6 407.0 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 33.6 13.1 1246.3
2030 44.5 55.6 460.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 38.9 15.1 1423.0
2035 44.5 55.6 520.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 45.0 17.3 1616.6
2040 44.5 55.6 589.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 52.0 20.1 1835.6
2045 44.5, 55.6 666.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 60.2 23.4 2083.4
2050 44.5 55.6 754.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 69.6 27.4 2363.8
2055 44.5 55.6 815.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 78.7 30.5 2452.0
2060 44.5, 55.6 852.2 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 86.7 33.1 2507.1
2065 44.5 55.6 875.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 93.9 35.3 2553.0
2070 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 99.4 37.3 2576.1
2075 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.2 38.8 2576.

2080 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 39.6 2576.1
2085 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.3 2576.

2090 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5 2576.

2095 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5 2576.1
2100 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5 2576.

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-61

EXHIBIT B-55

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998)

Globat Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 -H-1211 H-1301 suBsT *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 197.8 253.5 206.1 34.8 5.0 5.7 29.0 664.0 9.9 5.8 175.6
2005 183.7 192.6 245.4 29.1 2.9 4.0 23.7 664.0 14.8 6.9 238.5
2010 102.0 102.7 280.3 7.0 0.8 2.4 3.2 664.0 19.7 8.4 317.4
2015 71.7 52.1 317.8 7.0 0.5 0.7 3.2 664.0 24.2 9.9 381.8
2020 28.9 33.8 359.7 7.0 0.5 0.5 3.2 664.0 29.0 11.3 447.8
2025 22.5 19.9 407.0 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 33.6 13.1 512.3
2030 13.4 16.7 460.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 38.9 15.1 583.2
2035 13.4 16.7 520.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 45.0 17.3 660.6
2040 13.4 16.7 589.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 52.0 20.1 748.2
2045 13.4 16.7 666.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 60.2 23.4 847.4
2050 13.4 16.7 754.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 69.6 27.4 959.5
2055 13.4 16.7 815.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 78.7 30.5 994.8
2060 13.4 16.7 852.2 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 86.7 33.1 1016.8
2065 13.4 16.7 875.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 93.9 35.3 1035.2
2070 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 99.4 37.3 1044.4
2075 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.2 38.8 1044.4
2080 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 39.6 1044.4
2085 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.3 1044.4
2090 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5 1044.4
2095 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5 1044.4
2100 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5 1044.4

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


APPENDIX B

EMISSIONS SCENARIOS


-30-

EXHIBIT 2

COMPOUND LIFETIMES AND CONVERSION FACTORS

Compound Lifetime? Conversion Factor
CFC-11 76.5 years 1.363 x 10-4
CFC-12 138.8 years 0.761 x 1074
CFC-113 91.7 years 0.945 x 10-4
CFC-114 185.0 years 0.372 x 1074
CFG-115 380.0 years 0.102 x 10-4
HCFC-22 22.0 years 0.285 x 10-4
cH3CC13 8.3 years 1.466 x 1074
cols 67.1 years 1.709 x 10-4
Halon 1211 12.9 years 3.31 x 10-2
Halon 1301 100.9 years 3.68 x 10-2

a The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the

compounds will remain in the atmosphere. The lifetimes are "e-
folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period of one lifetime
has elapsed, the remaining level in the atmosphere is 1/e or about
37 percent of the original value.

b For the compounds other than the halons, the conversion factors
convert millions of kilograms of emissions into ppbv of Clx, and
adjust for the relative efficiencies of the various compounds in
supplying ozone-depleting chlorine to the stratosphere. The
conversion factors for halons convert millions of kilograms of
emissions into atmospheric abundances in pptv for each compound.

Source: Connell (1986).


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015,
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055

2060
2065

2070
2075

2080
2085

2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-24

B-30

100 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1990)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-114 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4  CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
80.2 153.4 122.2 0 3.1 5.4 0 738.1 2.7 2.3
67.2 27.8 165.4 .0 0 3.2 0 866.4 2.7 1.9
65.1 42.4 206.1 0 0 2.3 0 992.9 3.1 1.7
71.5 63.4 245.4 0 A) 1.7 0 1123.4 4.5 1.6
+0 0 280.3 -0 0 0 0 1271.0 5 1.8
0 0 317.8 -0 0 +0 -0 1438.1 6 8
0 0 359.7 -0 0 0 -0 1627.0 0 8
0 0 407.0 -0 0 .0 0 1840.9 0 9
0 0 460.4 0 0 .0 ~0 2082.8 0 0
0 0 520.9 0 0 0 «0 2356.5 0 0
+0 0 589.4 -0 0 0 0 2666.1 a) -0
0 0 666.9 0 0 0 -0 3016.5 0 -0
+0 0 754.5 .0 0 -0 0 3412.9 0 .0
0 0 815.1 0 0 0 -0 3412.9 +0 0
+0 0 852.2 0 0 0 20 3412.9 0 +0
-0 0 875.5 0 0 0 ~0 3412.9 0 0
0 0 879.1 a) 0 0 0 3412.9 0 0
-0 0 879.1 0 0 0 ~0 3412.9 0 «0
0 0 879.1 -0 0 0 20 3412.9 0 0
0 0 879.1 0 0 0 -0 3412.9 0 0
0 0 879.1 -0 -0 0 -0 3412.9 0 a)
0 +0 879.1 0 0 a) 0 3412.9 0 0
0 0 879.1 -0 -0 0 0 3412.9 0 0


CH3CCI3
ccl4
CFC-115
CFC-114
CFC-113
HCFC-22
CFC-12

CFC-11

Assumptions:

No Controls:

37-
EXHIBIT 9

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMPOUNDS TO
INCREASES IN Clx: NO CONTROLS SCENARIO

PERCENT OF Clx

120

100 -—

80 --

60 -—

40

20, --

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Change in
Clx (ppb):

1.5 6.8 16.3 28.5 37.8

Steady State Increase in Clx (ppbv): 71.5

Compound use grows at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent

from 1985 to 2050, with no growth thereafter.



-62-
EXHIBIT 34

CUMULATIVE CHLORINE CONTRIBUTION BY 2100
FOR ALTERNATIVE PHASE-OUT TIMES

(Values are differences from the 1998 timing value which is set to 0.)

Cumulative Clx Contribution
by 2100 relative to
1998 Phase-Out

(ppbv) 45
10 F
5 -
C (0.0)

0 ; |

5 if

-15 C
1990 1993 1996 1998 2003 2008
Phase- Phase- Phase- Phase- Phase- Phase-
Out Out Out Out Out Out

Ass tio:

o 100% reduction in CFCs.
o 100% global participation
o CH3CC13 freeze in 1989 at 1986 levels,

o Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


EXHIBIT B-69
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1996)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cols CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.4 641.3 3.3 3.8
1995 351.7 4240.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
2000 181.6 178.4 206.1 28.7 3.1 4.9 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8
2005 169.2 176.6 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.5 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9
2010 83.7 71.8 280.3 .0 0 1.8 0 664.0 19.7 8.4
2015 20.2 23.8 317.8 0 0 “4 0 664.0 24.2 9.9
2020 14.7 16.2 359.7 0 .0 .2 0 664.0 29.0 11.3
2025 0 .0 407.0 -0 0 -0 0 664.0 33.6 13.1
2030 0 0 460.4 0 0 0 0 664.0 38.9 15.1
2035 -0 0 520.9 -0 0 .0 .0 664.0 45.0 17.3
2040 0 0 589.4 0 0 -0 0 664.0 52.0 20.1
2045 0 -0 666.9 0 0 -0 -0 664.0 60.2 23.4
2050 -0 0 754.5 0 0 0 0 664.0 69.6 27.4
2055 .0 .0 815.1 -0 0 0 -0 664.0 78.7 30.5
2060 0 0 852.2 0 -0 0 -0 664.0 86.7 33.1
2065 .0 0 875.5 0 .0 0 .0 664.0 93.9 35.3
2070 -0 -0 879.1 .0 0 0 -0 664.0 99.4 37.3
2075 0 0 879.1 -0 0 0 0 664.0 100.2 38.8
2080 .0 .0 879.1 .0 .0 0 -0 664.0 100.8 39.6
2085 .0 0 879.1 0 -0 -0 0 664.0 100.8 40.3
2090 0 -0 879.1 ti) 0 -0 -0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2095 .0 -0 879.1 .0 -0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2100 0 0 879.1 to) 0 .0 +0 664.0 100.8 40.5


33-
EXHIBIT 5

SIMULATED CHLORINE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM CFC-11 AND CFC-12
FROM HYPOTHETICAL ONE-YEAR OF EMISSIONS OF 300 MILLION KILOGRAMS

Parts Per Billion
0.04

0.03. fF

0.02. --

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 «110 120

Chlorine contributions over time computed based on the lifetimes and
conversion factors presented in Exhibit 2 and the model described in Appendix

A.



APPENDIX A

CONCENTRATIONS MODEL


B31

EXHIBIT B-25

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCI3 Freeze (1990)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cct4 ck3ccl3 = H- 1211 H-1304

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 116.9 186.4 122.2 13.6 4.2 5.5 11.4 615.7 2.8 2.4
1995 115.3 82.0 165.4 18.5 1.6 3.6 14.2 627.5 3.0 2.1
2000 123.4 112.2 206.1 23.8 1.9 2.8 16.9 639.4 3.8 2.0
2005 136.1 141.3 245.4 25.1 2.0 2.4 17.9 645.8 5.6 2.0
2010 76.1 92.1 280.3 26.5 2.2 og 18.9 652.8 2.5 2.3
2015 81.6 99.4 317.8 28.0 2.3 1.0 20.0 660.5 3.0 1.5
2020 86.9 105.7 359.7 29.6 2.4 1.0 21.2 668.9 2.7 1.5
2025 92.0 112.0 407.0 31.3 2.6 4.1 22.5 678.0 3.0 1.6
2030 97.4 118.7 460.4 33.1 2.7 11 23.8 687.9 3.2 oD
2035 103.2 125.8 520.9 34.9 2.9 1.2 25.2 698.8 3.4 9
2040 109.3 133.3 589.4 36.9 3.0 1.3 26.7 710.6 3.6 1.0
2045 115.8 141.3 666.9 39.0 3.2 1.4 28.3 723.5 3.9 1.1
2050 = 122.7 149.7 754.5 41.3 3.4 1.4 30.0 737.6 4.2 1.2
2055 124.4 152.4 815.1 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 737.6 4.4 1.2
2060 «125.8 154.0 852.2 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 737.6 4.6 1.3
2065 126.8 155.4 875.5 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 4.8 1.3
2070 9=127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 4.9 1.4
2075 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
2080 = 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
2085 = 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
2090 = 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
2095 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
2100 = 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-47

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC- 44 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cCl4 CH3CCL3 H- 1211 H- 1301
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
197.8 253.5 206.1 34.8 5.0 5.7 29.0 664.0 9.9 5.8
183.7 192.6 245.4 29.1 2.9 4.0 23.7 664.0 14.8 6.9
102.0 102.7 280.3 7.0 8 2.4 3.2 664.0 19.7 8.4

71.7 52.1 317.8 7.0 ) .7 3.2 664.0 24.2 9.9
28.9 33.8 359.7 7.0 35 5 3.2 664.0 29.0 11.3
22.5 19.9 407.0 7.0 5 3 3.2 664.0 33.6 13.1
13.4 16.7 460.4 7.0 “5 3 3.2 664.0 38.9 15.

13.4 16.7 520.9 7.0 35 3 3.2 664.0 45.0 17.3
13.4 16.7 589.4 7.0 5 3 3.2 664.0 52.0 20.

13.4 16.7 666.9 7.0 5 3 3.2 664.0 60.2 23.4
13.4 16.7 754.5 7.0 5 3 3.2 664.0 69.6 27.4
13.4 16.7 815.1 7.0 35 3 3.2 664.0 78.7 30.5
13.4 16.7 852.2 7.0 5 3 3.2 664.0 86.7 33.1
13.4 16.7 875.5 7.0 35 3 3.2 664.0 93.9 35.3
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 35 3 3.2 664.0 99.4 37.3
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 35 3 3.2 664.0 100.2 38.8
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 5 3 3.2 664.0 100.8 39.6
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 ) 3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.3
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 5 3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 35 3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 35 3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5


-43-
EXHIBIT 15

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMPOUNDS TO
INCREASES IN Clx: PROTOCOL WITH 100% GLOBAL PARTICIPATION

PERCENT OF Clx
120
CH3CCI3 |
ccl4 100 [
cro-115 80 F—
CFC-114. 60 ;—-
CFC-113. 40 [-
HCFC-22 99 [-
CFC-12 0
Micros i
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Change in
. . 1
Che (ppb 12 29 45 57 6

Steady State Increase in Clx (ppbv): 7.4

Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.



B14

EXHIBIT 8-8
Protocol: Participation Scenario D
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccol4 = CH3CCL3) = H-1211 H+ 1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 866.4 5.6 4.3
2000 302.1 371.4 206.1 130.5 10.0 6.9 67.2 992.9 8.1 4.7
2005 300.6 355.8 245.4 124.7 8.9 6.2 61.9 1123.4 11.5 5.2
2010 = 266.3 315.8 280.3 116.1 8.0 5.3 53.9 1271.0 14.3 5.8
2015 248.1 294.6 317.8 116.1 7.9 4.6 53.9 1438.1 14.4 6.2
2020 = 230.1 285.4 359.7 116.1 7.9 4.5 53.9 1627.0 15.4 6.1
2025 226.2 279.4 407.0 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 1840.9 15.1 6.3
2030 © 222.6 278.2 460.4 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 2082.8 15.1 6.1
2035 222.6 278.2 520.9 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 2356.5 15.1 5.9
2040 222.6 278.2 589.4 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 2666.1 15.0 5.9
2045 222.6 278.2 666.9 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3016.5 15.0 5.9
2050 9222.6 278.2 754.5 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.9 6.0
2055 222.6 278.2 815.1 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.9 6.0
2060 222.6 278.2 852.2 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.8 6.1
2065 = 222.6 278.2 875.5 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.8 6.1
2070 222.6 278.2 879.1 116.4 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.8 6.1
2075 = 222.6 278.2 879.1 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.8 6.1
2080 222.6 278.2 879.1 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.7 6.1
2085 222.6 278.2 879.1 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.7 6.1
2090 = 222.6 278.2 879.1 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.7 6.1
2095 = 222.6 278.2 879.1 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.7 6.1

2100 222.6 278.2 879.1 116.1 7.9 4.4 53.9 3412.9 14.7 6.1


-8-
Montreal Protocol; growth in compound use among the non-participants; growth
in methyl chloroform use; and extent to which partially-halogenated compounds

are substituted for foregone CFCs. These factors are discussed more fully

below.

In the baseline scenario the average annual growth rate in demand for
products and services that would use CFCs, if they were available, is
approximately 4.0 percent from 1986 to 2000, and 2.5 percent from 2000 to
2050, for an average rate of 2.8 percent from 1986 to 2050 (based on
preliminary data, growth in the U.S. from 1985 to 1987 has averaged 11.3
percent per year, ITC 1988). It is assumed that production is constant
following 2050.

It should be noted that the conclusions of the analysis are not overly
sensitive to the baseline emissions assumptions. The baseline scenario is
merely a convenient case that is used as a basis for comparison with other

cases. It is reasonable to consider the range of scenarios examined here as

wi ” nar

For purposes of evaluating compliance with the Montreal Protocol,
global use is divided into six regions: U.S.; USSR and Other East Bloc; Other
Developed Nations (i.e., Europe, Japan, Australia and New Zealand); China and
India; Developing Nations I (i.e., developing nations with relatively higher
levels of per capita CFC use); and Developing Nations II (i.e., developing
nations with relatively lower levels of per capita CFC use) (see EPA 1988,
Chapter 4). Each region is simulated to participate in the Protocol to

various extents: the U.S. is assumed to participate; the USSR and the Other

Developed Nations are assumed to achieve 94 percent participation; and

6 This assumption of constant production after 2050 is relaxed below in
some scenarios to evaluate its implications for Clx and halon levels.


PROLOGUE

The recently completed Summary of the Ozone Trends Panel Report
provides new information about recent trends in global ozone levels. It
suggests that ozone depletion in certain seasons and at certain latitudes may
be larger than predicted by current atmospheric models and that "the observed
changes may be due wholly, or in part, to the increased atmospheric abundance
of trace gases, primarily chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs)."

Atmospheric scientists are attempting to understand and model the
mechanisms that have produced ozone declines. Such improvements in
understanding and models would allow for more accurate assessments of future
risks of ozone depletion.

This report presents a method for evaluating risks that avoids the
uncertainties currently involved in linking atmospheric chlorine and bromine
levels and projected ozone depletion. Instead, it relates rates of emissions
to stratospheric levels of chlorine and bromine. Because chlorine and bromine
concentrations ultimately determine risk, this approach, although imperfect
aids in assessing the potential risk of additional ozone depletion. Using
this approach, potential changes to the current levels of chlorine and bromine
that could occur under various emission scenarios, including the Montreal
Protocol, are projected along with the relative contribution of different
chemicals (e.g., CFC-11; CFC-12; CFC-113; methyl chloroform; HCFC-22, etc.) to
these changes. The report also examines the reductions in potential ozone
depleters needed in order to stabilize the atmosphere at current levels of
chlorine and bromine. Finally, the chlorine levels associated with various
changes in the coverage, timing, and stringency of the Montreal Protocol are
projected.

FINDINGS

1. Based on reductions required under the Montreal Protocol and assuming
substantial global participation, chlorine and bromine levels will
increase substantially from current levels.

o By 2075, even with 100 percent global participation in the
Protocol, chlorine abundance is projected to grow by a factor of
three to over 8 ppbv from current levels of about 2.7 ppbv,
assuming methyl chloroform emissions grow.

o If methyl chloroform emissions do not grow, either due to global
agreement on emission restrictions or due to a lack of demand,
chlorine levels would still grow to over 6 ppbv by 2075, even
with 100 percent participation in the Montreal Protocol.

o Because of long atmospheric residence times and transport delays
to the stratosphere, stratospheric chlorine levels will continue
to grow for about 6-8 years even if emissions were totally
eliminated.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

B-77

EXHIBIT B-71

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (2003)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cola CH3CCL3 H-1211 H- 130)
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
351.7 424.5 165.4 180.2 43.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
368.7 446.6 206.1 191.5 13.2 7.6 91.6 664.0 9.9 5.8
197.7 259.5 245.4 23.0 4.1 5.5 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9
172.1 174.0 280.3 23.0 2.4 3.5 21.3 664.0 19.7 8.4

81.2 86.6 317.8 +0 4 2.1 .0 664.0 24.2 9.9
58.2 33.2 359.7 0 0 4 .0 664.0 29.0 11.3
13.7 16.9 407.0 +0 0 3 .0 664.0 33.6 13.
9.5 3.3 460.4 0 0 0 0 664.0 38.9 15.
0 0 520.9 0 0 0 0 664.0 45.0 17.3
+0 .0 589.4 0 0 0 0 664.0 52.0 20.
0 -0 666.9 0 0 0 .0 664.0 60.2 23.4
-0 .0 754.5 0 0 +0 .0 664.0 69.6 27.4
+0 0 815.1 +0 -0 0 .0 664.0 78.7 30.5
-0 .0 852.2 0 0 0 .0 664.0 86.7 33.1
0 0 875.5 0 0 0 0 664.0 93.9 35.3
0 .0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 99.4 37.3
-0 0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 100.2 38.8
.0 0 879.1 -0 +0 0 +0 664.0 100.8 39.6
.0 0 879.4 0 0 0 -0 664.0 100.8 40.3
.0 .0 879.1 -0 -0 a) 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
0 0 879.4 .0 20 .0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
.0 .0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5


-40-
EXHIBIT 12

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMPOUNDS TO
INCREASE IN Clx: PROTOCOL WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE

PE CENT OF Cix
[7] cxsccis
ESky ccia 100 f-
[7] cFe-115 gg LL
CFC-114 r
60 +
EE crc-113 [.
. 40
I$ HeFc-22
CFC-12 = 20 |-
MB cree [
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Change in 2 7
Cx (ppb): 6 3. 47 5.5

Steady State increase in Clx (ppbv): 8.0

Assumptions:

Protocol with CH3CC13 Freeze: U.S. participation; 94 percent participation in
other developed nations; 65 percent participation in
developing nations. Use of compounds not covered by the
Protocol grows at the rates in the No Controls scenario.
Growth rates among non-participants are reduced. Baseline
compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


APPENDIX B


EXHIBIT B-3

Protocol

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CEC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 Ccl4 CH3CCl3 H-1241 H-1301
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 5.6 44
2000 321.5 392.8 206.1 140.6 10.6 7.0 73.1 992.9 8.3 4.8
2005 330.3 390.4 245.4 138.2 9.8 6.4 70.6 1123.4 11.7 5.3
2010 309.9 367.9 280.3 134.0 9.4 5.7 66.5 1271.0 14.7 6.0
2015 298.5 356.8 317.8 135.5 9.4 5.2 67.6 1438.1 15.2 6.4
2020 287.4 355.8 359.7 137.1 9.5 5.1 68.8 1627.0 16.4 6.4
2025 290.0 358.3 407.0 138.8 9.7 5.1 70.1 1840.9 16.5 6.6
2030 293.1 364.1 460.4 140.6 9.8 5.2 71.4 2082.8 16.9 6.6
2035 298.9 371.2 520.9 142.5 10.0 5.3 72.8 2356.5 17.2 6.5
2040 305.0 378.7 589.4 144.4 10.2 5.3 74.3 2666.1 17.6 6.6
2045 311.5 386.7 666.9 146.5 10.4 5.4 75.9 3016.5 18.0 6.8
2050 318.3 395.2 754.5 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.5 7.0
2055 = 320.1 397.8 815.1 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.9 7.2
2060 321.4 399.5 852.2 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.3 7.3
2065 322.5 400.8 875.5 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.6 7.4
2070 «= 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.5
2075 = 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 = 3412.9 19.9 7.6
2080 =323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6
2085 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6
2090 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 = 3412.9 19.9 7.6
2095 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 = 3412.9 19.9 7.6

2100 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6


United States Office of Air and Radiation EPA 400/1-88/005
Environmental Protection Washington D.C. 20460 August 1988

Agency

Future Concentrations of
Stratospheric Chlorine and
Bromine



B-35

EXHIBIT B-29
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 1:5 Substitution (1990)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3) =-H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0

1990 116.9 186.4 122.2 13.6 4.2 5.5 11.4 615.7 2.8 2.4 115.9
1995 115.3 82.0 165.4 18.5 1.6 3.6 14.2 627.5 3.0 2.1 179.6
2000 123.4 112.2 206.1 23.8 1.9 2.8 16.9 639.4 3.8 2.0 218.7
2005 136.1 1461.3 245.4 25.1 2.0 2.4 17.9 645.8 5.6 2.0 258.2
2010 76.1 92.1 280.3 26.5 2.2 0.9 18.9 652.8 2.5 2.3 324.7
2015 81.6 99.4 317.8 28.0 2.3 1.0 20.0 660.5 3.0 1.5 370.3
2020 86.9 105.7 359.7 29.6 2.4 1.0 21.2 668.9 2.7 1.5 421.8
2025 92.0 112.0 407.0 31.3 2.6 1.7 22.5 678.0 3.0 1.6 480.0
2030 97.4 118.7 460.4 33.1 2.7 4.4 23.8 687.9 3.2 0.9 546.0
2035 103.2 125.8 520.9 34.9 2.9 1.2 25.2 698.8 3.4 0.9 620.9
2040 109.3 133.3 589.4 36.9 3.0 1.3 26.7 710.6 3.6 1.0 705.7
2045 115.8 141.3 666.9 39.0 3.2 1.4 28.3 723.5 3.9 1.1 802.0
2050 122.7 149.7 754.5 41.3 3.4 1.4 30.0 737.6 4.2 1.2 911.0
2055 124.4 152.4 815.1 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 737.6 4.4 1.2 945.5
2060 125.8 154.0 852.2 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 737.6 4.6 1.3, 966.9
2065 126.8 155.4 875.5 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 4.8 1.3, 984.8
2070 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 4.9 1.4 993.8
2075 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4 993.8
2080 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4 993.8
2085 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4 993.8
2090 127.5 155.7 9 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4 993.8
2095 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4 993.8
2100 127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4 993.8

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


EXHIBIT B-52
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.1
2000 191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8 446.

2005 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 605.1
2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.0 664.0 19.7 8.4 805.5

2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 664.0 24.2 9.9 967.9
2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 664.0 29.0 11.3 1133.9
2025 9.5 3.3 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 33.6 13.1 1295.6
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 38.9 15.1 1473.1
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 45.0 17.3 1666.7
2040 0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 52.0 20.1 1885.6
2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 60.2 23.4 2133.5
2050 0.0 -0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 69.6 27.4 2413.8
2055 0.0 0.0 815.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 78.7 30.5 2502.1
2060 0.0 0.0 852.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 86.7 33.1 2557.2
2065 0.0 0.0 875.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 93.9 35.3 2603.

2070 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 99.4 37.3 2626.2
2075 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.2 38.8 2626.2
2080 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 39.6 2626.2
2085 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.3 2626.2
2090 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.5 2626.2
2095 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.5 2626.2
2100 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.5 2626.2

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page
Acknowledgements di
Prologue 1
Findings 1
1. Introduction ...... 06... cece eee ent eens 4
wl The Concept and Meaning of Stabilization .. 5
1.2 Report Organization ... 6
2 Methods 2.0... icine eee eens 7
2.1 Emissions Scenarios ........ ccc eect terete eens 7
2.2 The Effects of Chemical Lifetimes on Chlorine

Contributions 2.2.0... . eee ee teens 9
3. Evaluation of the Montreal Protocol ........... 6c eee eee eens 13
3.1 Potential Future Clx Levels ........ 0... cece ete eee ee 13
3.2 Impact of Participation Assumptions 16
3.3 Impact of Substitution Assumptions vee. 16
3.4 Impact of Post-2050 Growth Assumptions .........-.....00008 18
3.5 Potential Future Halon Levels ........... 0c cece eee eee eee 19
4. Reduction Scenarios to Stabilize Clx and Halon Levels ............ 20
al Identification of Necessary Reductions .............. seeee 20

4.2 Impact of Substitution and Post-2050 Growth Assumptions
on Stabilization ..............--. beeen eee 21
4.3 Potential Future Halon Levels ...... rn? 23
5. Implications of a Virtual Phaseout of CFCs for Chlorine Levels ... 24
5.1 Virtual Phaseouts in 1998 ............ Settee eee eee eee 24
5.2 Speeding up or Delaying the Phaseout .............0 eee cease 26
6. SUMMALTY - oe en teen nee ee 27
29
Appendix A: Concentrations Model ........ 20. eee cece eee eee A-1
Appendix B: Emissions Scenarios ......... 6. ee cece eee ee eee eee B-1
Appendix C: Ozone Depletion Estimates ....... 2.00605 cece cece e nee Cc-1


B-36

EXHIBIT B-30
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1990)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3) =H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0

1990 80.2 153.4 122.2 0.0 3.1 5.4 0.0 606.6 2.7 2.3 129.8
1995 67.2 27.8 165.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 606.6 2.7 1. 200.1
2000 65.1 42.4 206.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 606.6 3.1 1.7 244.3
2005 71.5 63.4 245.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 606.6 4.5 1.6 286.7
2010 0.0 0.0 280.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.5 1.8 358.3
2015 0.0 0.0 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.6 0.8 406.5
2020 0.0 0.0 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.8 460.3
2025 0.0 0.0 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.9 520.8
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 589.2
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 666.7
2040 0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 754.3
2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 853.4
2050 0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 965.5
2055 0.0 0.0 815.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1000.8
2060 0.0 0.0 852.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1022.9
2065 0.0 0.0 875.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1041.2
2070 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1050.5
2075 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1050.5
2080 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1050.5
2085 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1050.5
2090 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1050.5
2095 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1050.5
2100 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1050.5

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


EXHIBITS


B-16

EXHIBIT B-10

Protocol: Participation Scenario E

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

Crc-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cel4 = CHBCCL3 —H- 1214 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 360.5 430.8 165.4 184.9 14.0 7.3 94.4 866.4 5.6 4.4
2000 326.7 399.3 206.1 142.5 10.8 7.0 74.9 992.9 8.3 4.8
2005 = 341.7 404.7 245.4 142.1 10.2 6.5 74.3 1123.4 11.8 5.3
2010 = 330.0 393.0 280.3 140.7 10.0 5.9 72.7 = 1271.0 14.9 6.0
2015 322.0 387.5 317.8 142.9 10.2 5.4 74.5 1438.1 15.4 6.5
2020 314.6 391.3 359.7 145.2 10.4 5.4 76.3 1627.0 16.8 6.5
2025 320.9 398.8 407.0 147.6 10.6 5.5 78.3 1840.9 17.2 6.8
2030 = 327.8 408.7 460.4 150.2 10.9 5.6 80.3 2082.8 17.8 6.8
2035 = 336.7 419.8 520.9 152.9 14.1 5.7 82.5 2356.5 18.3 6.8
2040 = 346.1 431.5 589.4 155.8 11.4 5.8 84.9 2666.1 18.9 7.0
2045 356.1 444.0 666.9 158.8 11.7 5.9 87.4 3016.5 19.6 7.2
2050 366.7 457.2 754.5 162.1 12.0 6.1 90.0 3412.9 20.4 7.5
2055 369.4 461.4 815.1 162.1 12.0 6.1 90.0 3412.9 21.1 7.8
2060 «371.5 464.0 852.2 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 21.8 8.0
2065 373.1 466.0 875.5 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.3 8.1
2070 374.1 466.7 879.1 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.7 8.3
2075 374.1 466.7 879.1 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.7 8.4
2080 «374.1 466.7 879.1 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.8 8.4
2085 = 374.1 466.7 879.1 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.8 8.5
2090 374.1 466.7 879.1 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.8 8.5
2095 374.1 466.7 879.1 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.8 8.5

2100 374.1 466.7 879.1 162.1 12.0 6.2 90.0 3412.9 22.8 8.5


B-11

EXHIBIT B-5

Protocol with CH3CCL3 Freeze

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cols CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 364.4 440.9 122.2 202.6 15.7 6.9 103.9 643.3 3.3 3.8
1995 359.6 429.9 165.4 184.8 13.9 7.3 93.1 667.8 5.6 4.4
2000 = 321.6 393.1 206.1 140.8 10.6 7.0 72.3 681.7 8.3 4.8
2005 9330.4 390.8 245.4 138.4 9.8 6.4 69.9 688.1 11.7 5.3
2010 «310.1 368.2 280.3 134.2 9.4 5.7 65.7 695.2 14.7 6.0
2015 298.7 357.1 317.8 135.7 9.4 5.2 66.9 702.8 15.2 6.4
2020 287.6 356.1 359.7 137.3 9.6 5.1 68.0 711.2 16.4 6.4
2025 290.2 358.6 407.0 139.0 9.7 5.1 69.3 720.3 16.5 6.6
2030 9293.3 364.5 460.4 140.8 9.9 5.2 70.6 730.2 16.9 6.6
2035 299.1 371.5 520.9 142.7 10.0 5.3 72.1 741.1 17.2 6.5
2040 305.2 379.1 589.4 144.6 10.2 5.3 73.6 752.9 17.6 6.6
2045 311.7 387.0 666.9 146.7 10.4 5.4 75.2 765.8 18.0 6.8
2050 «318.5 395.5 754.5 149.0 10.6 5.5 76.9 779.9 18.5 7.0
2055 320.3 398.2 815.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 18.9 7.2
2060 321.6 399.8 852.2 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.3 7.3
2065 = 322.7 401.1 875.5 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.6 7.4
2070 =323.4 401.5 879.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.9 7.5
2075 323.4 401.5 879.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.9 7.6
2080 = 323.4 401.5 879.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.9 7.6
2085 323.4 401.5 879.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.9 7.6
2090 =323.4 401.5 879.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.9 7.6
2095 = 323.4 401.5 879.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.9 7.6

2100 = 323.4 401.5 879.1 149.0 10.6 5.6 76.9 779.9 19.9 7.6


12-
chlorine contributions over time relative to CFC-11, CH3CC13 emissions present

near-term risks from near-term emissions. (Other short-lived compounds should

similarly by examined.) Therefore, in evaluating ozone-depletion risks based
on Clx contribution, one must make judgments about relative concern to be
placed on the potential for near-term depletion.

By changing the radiative properties of the atmosphere, CFC emissions
also warm the Earth's surface. By limiting the use and emissions of the
fully-halogenated CFCs, the Montreal Protocol is expected to reduce the
contribution of these compounds to this "greenhouse effect" by about 80
percent by 2100. This estimate is based on the assumption that currently-
anticipated control options are used to reduce CFC use and emissions.

However, if the mix of CFC use among compounds shifts significantly,
the resulting greenhouse impact could be significantly different because the
compounds have different impacts on global warming. As shown in Exhibit 7,
the relative greenhouse impacts of the various compounds differ over time for
equal amounts of emissions, and the relative impacts of the compounds with the
longer lifetimes are quite high.

As allowed under the Montreal Protocol, the use of the various CFCs can
be traded off at rates that are defined by estimates of their steady-state
relative ozone-depleting potentials. For example, about 1.7 kilograms of CFC-
115 can be traded off for 1.0 kilograms of CFC-11. If this theoretically
permissible tradeoff were to occur between all the controlled CFCs and CFC-115
(a highly unlikely event), the expected CFC contribution to the greenhouse
effect would almost double as compared to the standard Protocol scenario by
2100. Recognizing that the framers of the Protocol were "conscious of the

potential climate effects of [CFC] emissions," this analysis indicates that


PARTS PER BILLION

-52-
EXHIBIT 24

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx ASSUMING POST-2050 GROWTH
AND ALTERNATIVE SUBSTITUTION ASSUMPTIONS:
100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE;
100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE AND 100% PARTICIPATION

5.0

404

Less Than 100% Participation

3.0 4

2.0 5

1.0

0.0

lo Substitute

1.0 T T T T T
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Three lines are displayed for each of the two cases. The rates of
substitution are 1:2 -- one kilogram of a substitute for each two kilograms of
CFC-11 and CFC-12 foregone; and 1:5 -- one kilogram of a substitute for each
five kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 foregone. The substitute is assumed to
have the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22. Growth in use after 2050 is

assumed to be 2.5 percent per year.


B-23

EXHIBIT B-17
Protocol: 1:5 Substitution Scenario
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8 15.5
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 5.6 4.4 61.3
2000 321.5 392.8 206.1 140.6 10.6 7.0 73.1 992.9 8.3 4.8 123.0
2005 330.3 390.4 245.4 138.2 9.8 6.4 70.6 1123.4 11.7 5.3 169.6
2010 309.9 367.9 280.3 134.0 9.4 5.7 66.5 1271.0 14.7 6.0 222.8
2015 298.5 356.8 317.8 135.5 9.4 5.2 67.6 1438.1 15.2 6.4 275.5
2020 287.4 355.8 359.7 137.1 9.5 5.1 68.8 1627.0 16.4 6.4 331.7
2025 290.0 358.3 407.0 138.8 9.7 5.1 70.1 1840.9 16.5 6.6 391.1
2030 293.1 364.1 460.4 140.6 9.8 5.2 71.4 2082.8 16.9 6.6 457.8
5.3
5.3
5.4

2035 298.9 371.2 520.9 142.5 10.0 72.8 2356.5 17.2 6.5 532.6
2040 305.0 378.7 589.4 144.4 10.2 74.3 2666.1 17.6 6.6 617.5
2045 311.5 386.7 666.9 146.5 10.4 75.9 3016.5 18.0 6.8 713.7

2050 318.3 395.2 754.5 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.5 7.0 822.8
2055 320.1 397.8 815.1 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.9 7.2 857.3
2060 321.4 399.5 852.2 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.3 7.3 878.7
2065 322.5 400.8 875.5 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.6 7.4 896.6
2070 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.5 905.6

2075 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 905.6
2080 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 905.6
2085 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 905.6
2090 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 905.6
2095 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 905.6
2100 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 905.6

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


This appendix presents the global emissions of potential ozone depleting
substances for the scenarios examined in the main text. All global emissions
are presented in millions of kilograms. Exhibit B-1 shows the list of

exhibits
chemical
chemical
22. The
which is
sections

in this Appendix. The scenarios that consider the effects of a
substitute show an extra column to reflect these emissions. The
substitute is modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-
scenarios discussed in Section 5 maintain the Protocol structure
indicated in the exhibit titles. All exhibits reference the relevant
in the main text. These emissions scenarios are similar to the

scenarios analyzed in EPA (1988). Note that the scenarios examined in Section
5 (Exhibits B-37 to B-72) do not reflect controls on the halon compounds


-34-
EXHIBIT 6

RELATIVE CHLORINE CONTRIBUTION OVER TIME FROM EACH COMPOUND FOR
HYPOTHETICAL ONE-YEAR EMISSIONS OF 300 MILLION KILOGRAMS

(Values are relative to CFC-11 which is set to 1.0)

Chlorine Contribution

Helative toCFC-11 1.4

(CFC-11 = 1.0) L
woe cc CFC-12
J CFC-11
1
i CFC-113
08
|
06 CFC-114
oF
L. CFC-115
o2
lr ee HCFC-22
0 po a _

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 «110-120

Chlorine contributions over time computed based on the lifetimes and
conversion factors presented in Exhibit 2 and the model described in Appendix
A.



PARTS PER TRILLION

-46-
EXHIBIT 18

SIMULATED INCREASE IN HALON LEVELS:
NO CONTROLS AND PROTOCOL SCENARIOS

70.0

60.0 5 No Controls:
Halon 1301

50.0 +

No Controls:
Halon 1211

40.0 5

30.0 4

20.0 4

10.0 4 Protocol: Halon 1211

0.0 T TMT ——T
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Assumptions:

© Protocol Participation: U.S. participation; 94% of other
developed nations; 65% of developing nations.

o Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065

2070
2075

2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-38

95 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cel4 = CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8
359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 6.2 5.0
226.6 284.8 206.1 52.2 6.0 5.9 38.0 992.9 9.9 5.8
223.7 240.2 245.4 49.8 4.3 4.4 35.6 9 1123.4 14.8 6.9
171.2 184.5 280.3 37.3 3.1 3.1 23.7 1271.0 19.7 B.4
149.6 149.6 317.8 38.8 3.0 1.7 24.8 = 1438.1 24.2 9.9
116.3 141.1 359.7 40.4 3.1 1.6 26.0 1627.0 29.0 11.3
17.4 138.6 407.0 42.0 3.3 1.5 27.2 1840.9 33.6 13.1
117.0 143.2 460.4 43.8 3.4 1.6 28.6 2082.8 38.9 15.

122.8 150.3 520.9 45.7 3.6 1.6 30.0 2356.5 45.0 17.3
128.9 157.8 589.4 47.7 3.8 1.7 31.5 2666.1 52.0 20.

135.4 165.8 666.9 49.8 3.9 1.8 33.1 3016.5 60.2 23.4
142.2 174.3 754.5 52.0 4.1 1.9 34.8 3412.9 69.6 27.4
144.0 176.9 815.1 52.0 4.2 1.9 34.8 3412.9 78.7 30.5
145.3 178.6 852.2 52.0 4.2 1.9 34.8 3412.9 86.7 33.1
146.4 179.9 875.5 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 93.9 35.3
147.1 180.3 879.1 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 99.4 37.3
147.1 180.3 879.1 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 100.2 38.8
147.1 180.3 879.1 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 100.8 39.6
147.1 180.3 879.1 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 100.8 40.3
147.1 180.3 879.1 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5
147.1 180.3 879.1 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5
147.1 180.3 879.1 52.0 4.2 2.0 34.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5


PARTS PER BILLION

-51
EXHIBIT 23
SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR ALTERNATIVE SUBSTITUTION ASSUMPTIONS:

100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CCL3 FREEZE;
100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE AND 100% PARTICIPATION

3.0

2.55

20-4 Less Than 100% Participation

0.5 4

0.0

-0.5 5

-1.0 —T
1985 2005

T T T T
2025 2045 2065 2085

Three lines are displayed for each of the two cases. One line is based on the
assumption that no ozone-depleting compounds are substituted for the
controlled compounds. The other two lines are for a range of substitution
assumptions. The substitute is assumed to have the atmospheric
characteristics of HCFC-22. Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant

after 2050.


B-65

EXHIBIT B-59

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 suBsT *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 351.7 9 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.

2000 197.8 253.5 206.1 34.8 5.0 5.7 29.0 664.0 9.9 5.8 439.0
2005 183.7 192.6 245.4 29.1 2.9 4.0 23.7 664.0 14.8 6.9 596.2
2010 102.0 102.7 280.3 7.0 0.8 2.4 3.2 664.0 19.7 8.4 793.2
2015 71.7 52.1 317.8 7.0 0.5 0.7 3.2 664.0 24.2 9.9 954.5
2020 28.9 33.8 359.7 7.0 0.5 0.5 3.2 664.0 29.0 11.3°-1119.5
2025 22.5 19.9 407.0 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 33.6 13.1 1280.8
2030 13.4 16.7 460.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 38.9 15.1 1458.0
2035 13.4 16.7 520.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 45.0 17.3 1651.6
2040 13.4 16.7 589.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 52.0 20.1 1870.6
2045 13.4 16.7 666.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 60.2 23.4 2118.4
2050 13.4 16.7 754.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 69.6 27.4 2398.8
2055 13.4 16.7 853.6 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 80.2 31.7 2715.9
2060 13.4 16.7 965.8 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 92.0 36.4 3074.8
2065 13.4 16.7 1092.7 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 105.2 41.7 3480.9
2070 13.4 16.7 1236.3 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 119.9 47.6 3940.3
2075 13.4 16.7 1398.8 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 135.7 54.1 4460.0
2080 13.4 16.7 1582.6 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 153.6 61.4 5048.0
2085 13.4 16.7 1790.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 173.8 69.7 5713.4
2090 13.4 16.7 2025.8 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 196.7 78.9 6466.2
2095 13.4 16.7 2292.0 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 222.5 89.2 7317.8
2100 13.4 16.7 2593.2 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 251.8 101.0 8281.4

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


PARTS PER BILLION

-47-
EXHIBIT 19

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx:

PROTOCOL; 90% REDUCTION; 90% REDUCTION WITH 100% PARTICIPATION;

100% REDUCTION WITH 100% PARTICIPATION

9.0

8.0 4

7.0 4

6.0 4

5.0 5

3.0 4

2.0

1.0

90% Reduction with
Less Than 100% Participation

90% Reduction with
100% Participation

100% Reduction with
100% Participation

0.0
1985

Assumptions:

°

T T T
2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Participation in Protocol and 90 percent reduction scenarios:
U.S. participation; 94 percent of developed nations; 65 percent of

developing nations.

90 percent and 100 percent reductions are simulated in 1990.

Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

B-38:

B-39:

B-40:

B-41:

B-42:

B-43:

B-44:

B-45:

B-46:

B-47:

B-48:

B-49:

B-50:

B-51:

B-5

EXHIBIT B-1 (Continued)
LIST OF EXHIBITS IN APPENDIX B

95 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998 -- Protocol Structure):
Section 5.1

97 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998 -- Protocol Structure):
Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998 -- Protocol Structure):
Section 5.1

90 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998 --
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

95 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998 --
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

97 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998 --
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1998 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

95 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1998 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1998 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1998 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1

95 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998 -- Protocol
Structure): Section 5.1


B-15

EXHIBIT B-9
Protocol: Participation Scenario D'
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 COl4 CH3CCl3 H-1211 = K- 1304

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.7 439.5 122.2 201.6 15.7 6.9 103.4 641.3 3.3 3.8
1995 351.8 421.8 165.4 180.5 13.7 7.2 90.7 660.9 5.6 4.3
2000 =302.2 371.7 206.1 130.7 10.0 6.9 66.4 664.0 8.1 4.7
2005 300.8 356.2 245.4 124.9 8.9 6.2 61.1 664.0 11.5 5.2
2010 266.5 316.2 280.3 116.3 8.0 5.3 53.1 664.0 14.3 5.8
2015 = 248.3 294.9 317.8 116.3 7.9 4.6 53.1 664.0 14.4 6.2
2020 «6230.3 285.7 359.7 116.3 7.9 4.5 53.1 664.0 15.4 6.1
2025 = 226.3 279.8 407.0 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.1 664.0 15.1 6.3
2030 222.8 278.5 460.4 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.1 664.0 15.1 6.1
2035 = 222.8 278.5 520.9 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.1 664.0 15.1 5.9
2040 222.8 278.5 589.4 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.1 664.0 15.0 5.9
2065 222.8 278.5 666.9 116.3 7.9 44 53.1 664.0 15.0 5.9
2050 222.8 278.5 754.5 116.3 7.9 4h 53.2 664.0 14.9 6.0
2055 = 222.8 278.5 815.1 116.3 7.9 44 53.2 664.0 14.9 6.0
2060 «222.8 278.5 852.2 116.3 7.9 4h 53.2 664.0 14.8 6.1
2065 = 222.8 278.5 875.5 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.2 664.0 14.8 6.1
2070 «222.8 278.5 879.1 116.3 7.9 4G 53.2 664.0 14.8 6.1
2075 = 222.8 278.5 879.1 116.3 7.9 4h 53.2 664.0 14.8 6.1
2080 222.8 278.5 879.1 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.2 664.0 14.7 6.1
2085 222.8 278.5 879.1 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.2 664.0 14.7 6.1
2090 «222.8 278.5 879.1 116.3 7.9 4.4 53.2 664.0 14.7 6.1
2095 = 222.8 278.5 879.1 116.3 7.9 44 53.2 664.0 14.7 6.1
2100 222.8 278.5 879.1 116.3 7.9 44 53.2 664.0 14.7 6.1


-41

EXHIBIT 13

RANGE OF PROTOCOL PARTICIPATION ASSUMPTIONS EXAMINED@

Participation

Scenario Developed Nations Developing Nations Comments

A 94% 65% Standard Assumptions

B 100% 65% Higher than standard
assumptions

c 100% 85% Higher than standard
assumptions

D 100% 100% Higher than standard
assumptions

D’ 100% 100% Higher than standard
assumptions

E 94% 40% Lower than standard
assumptions

F 75% 65% Lower than standard
assumptions

G 60% 65% Lower than standard
assumptions

H 75% 40% Lower than standard
assumptions

re 66% 66% Lower than standard

assumptions

a Unless noted otherwise, 100% U.S. participation is assumed.

b Includes CH3CC13 freeze along with Protocol requirements.

c Assumes 66% global participation, including the U.S.


B-56

EXHIBIT B-50
95 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)
CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 suBsT *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 47 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0

1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 = 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.

2000 202.2 258.5 206.1 38.9 5.2 5.7 30.7 664.0 9.9 5.8 434.3
2005 188.7 199.6 245.4 33.2 3.2 4.1 25.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 590.2
2010 109.0 111.8 280.3 11.6 1.1 2.5 5.4 664.0 19.7 8.4 785.4
2015 79.2 62.4 317.8 11.6 0.8 0.9 5.4 664.0 24.2 9.9 945.6
2020 37.4 44.5 359.7 11.6 0.8 0.7 5.4 664.0 29.0 11.3) 1109.9
2025 31.2 31.0 407.0 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 33.6 13.1 1270.9
2030 22.3 27.8 460.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 38.9 15.1 1448.0
2035 22.3 27.8 520.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 45.0 17.3 1641.6
2040 22.3 27.8 589.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 52.0 20.1 1860.6
2045 22.3 27.8 666.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 60.2 23.4 2108.4
2050 22.3 27.8 = 754.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 69.6 27.4 2388.8
2055 22.3 27.8 815.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 78.7 30.5 2477.0
2060 22.3 27.8 852.2 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 86.7 33.1 2532.1
2065 22.3 27.8 875.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 93.9 35.3 2578.0
2070 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 99.4 37.3 2601.

2075 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.2 38.8 2601.1
2080 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 39.6 2601.

2085 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.3 2601.

2090 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5 2601.1
2095 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5 2601.1
2100 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5 2601.

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-40

EXHIBIT 8-34

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCI3 Freeze and Post-2050 Growth with 1:5 Substitution

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 Cols CH3CCL3 = HH- 1211 H-1301 suBsT *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 116.9 186.4 122.2 13.6 4.2 5.5 11.4 615.7 2.8 2.4 115.9
1995 115.3 82.0 165.4 18.5 1.6 3.6 14.2 627.5 3.0 2.1 179.6
2000 123.4 112.2 206.1 23.8 1.9 2.8 16.9 639.4 3.8 2.0 218.7
2005 136.1 141.3 245.4 25.1 2.0 2.4 17.9 645.8 5.6 2.0 258.2
2010 76.1 92.1 280.3 26.5 2.2 0.9 18.9 652.8 2.5 2.3 324.7
2015 81.6 99.4 317.8 28.0 2.3 1.0 20.0 660.5 3.0 1.5 370.3
2020 86.9 105.7 359.7 29.6 2.4 1.0 21.2 668.9 2.7 1.5 421.8
2025 92.0 112.0 407.0 31.3 2.6 1.1 22.5 678.0 3.0 1.6 480.0
2030 97.4 118.7 460.4 33.1 2.7 1.1 23.8 687.9 3.2 0.9 546.0
2035 103.2 125.8 520.9 34.9 2.9 1.2 25.2 698.8 3.4 0.9 620.9
2040 109.3 133.3 589.4 36.9 3.0 1.3 26.7 710.6 3.6 1.0 705.7
2045 115.8 141.3 666.9 39.0 3.2 1.4 28.3 723.5 3.9 1.1 802.0
2050 122.7 149.7 754.5 41.3 3.4 1.4 30.0 737.6 4.2 1.2 911.0
2055 129.9 158.7 853.6 43.6 3.6 1.5 31.8 752.9 4.5 1.3 1034.7
2060 137.7 168.2 965.8 46.1 3.8 1.6 33.7 769.7 4.8 1.3 1174.8
2065 145.8 178.3 1092.7 48.8 4.1 1.7 35.7 788.0 5.1 1.4 1333.5
2070 154.5 189.0 1236.3 51.5 4.3 1.8 37.9 808.0 5.4 1.5 1513.4
2075 163.7 200.4 1398.8 54.5 4.6 1.9 40.1 829.9 5.7 1.6 1717.2
2080 173.5 212.4 1582.6 57.6 4.8 2.0 42.6 853.7 6.1 1.7 1948.0
2085 183.8 225.2 1790.5 60.9 5.1 2.2 45.1 879.8 6.4 1.8 2209.6
2090 194.8 238.8 2025.8 64.5 5.4 2.3 47.8 908.3 6.8 2.0 2505.8
2095 206.4 253.2 2292.0 68.2 5.8 2.4 50.7 939.4 7.2 2.1 2841.2
2100 218.8 268.4 2593.2 72.1 6.1 2.6 53.7 973.4 7.6 2.2 3221.1

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095,
2100

EXHIBIT B-43

B49

97 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-114 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4 = CH3CCL3 H-1214 H- 130
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 866.4 6.2 5.0
197.8 253.5 206.1 34.8 5.0 5.7 29.0 992.9 9.9 5.8
183.7 192.6 245.4 29.1 2.9 4.0 23.7 1123.4 14.8 6.9
102.0 102.7 280.3 7.0 8 2.4 3.2. 1271.0 19.7 8.4

71.7 52.1 317.8 7.0 ) .7 3.2 1438.1 24.2 9.9
28.9 33.8 359.7 7.0 5 5 3.2 1627.0 29.0 11.3
22.5 19.9 407.0 7.0 35 3 3.2 1840.9 33.6 13.1
13.4 16.7 460.4 7.0 5 3 3.2 2082.8 38.9 15.

13.4 16.7 520.9 7.0 5 3 3.2 2356.5 45.0 17.3
13.4 16.7 589.4 7.0 5 3 3.2 2666.1 52.0 20.1
13.4 16.7 666.9 7.0 5 3 3.2 3016.5 60.2 23.4
13.4 16.7 754.5 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 69.6 27.4
13.4 16.7 815.1 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 78.7 30.5
13.4 16.7 852.2 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 86.7 33.

13.4 16.7 875.5 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 93.9 35.3
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 99.4 37.3
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 100.2 38.8
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 100.8 39.6
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 5 3 3.2 3412.9 100.8 40.3
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 35 3 3.2 3412.9 100.8 40.5
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 ) 3 3.2 3412.9 100.8 40.5
13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 ) 3 3.2 3412.9 100.8 40.5


EXHIBIT B-48
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cct4  cCH3cct3 H-1214 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
2000 «191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8
2005 = 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9
2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0 4 2.2 -0 664.0 19.7 8.4
2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 -0 0 5 .0 664.0 24.2 9.9
2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0 0 3 0 664.0 29.0 11.3
2025 9.5 3.3 407.0 to) 0 .0 .0 664.0 33.6 13.1
2030 0 0 460.4 0 .0 0 -0 664.0 38.9 15.1
2035 0 0 520.9 0 0 0 +0 664.0 45.0 17.3
2040 .0 0 589.4 0 0 0 0 664.0 52.0 20.1
2045 0 0 666.9 0 0 0 0 664.0 60.2 23.4
2050 .0 0 754.5 .0 0 0 .0 664.0 69.6 27.4
2055 0 0 815.1 0 0 0 a) 664.0 78.7 30.5
2060 0 0 852.2 0 0 0 0 664.0 86.7 33.1
2065 0 0 875.5 0 -0 0 0 664.0 93.9 35.3
2070 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 .0 664.0 99.4 35.3
2075 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 -0 664.0 100.2 38.8
2080 0 -0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 100.8 39.6
2085 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 20 664.0 100.8 40.3
2090 0 a) 879.1 0 0 0 «0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2095 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 +0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2100 .0 0 879.1 -0 0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5


EXHIBIT B-72
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (2008)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFe-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 col4 = CH3CCL3. H-1211 H- 1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
1995 351.7 420.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
2000 368.7 446.6 206.1 191.5 13.2 7.6 91.6 664.0 9.9 5.8
2005 «375.3 460.0 245.4 185.8 12.7 7.5 86.3 664.0 14.8 6.9
2010 193.6 251.3 280.3 23.0 4.0 5.1 21.3 664.0 19.7 8.4
2015 161.7 171.5 317.8 23.0 2.4 3.4 21.3 664.0 24.2 9.9
2020 79.0 83.2 359.7 0 4 2.1 -0 664.0 29.0 11.3
2025 55.8 32.6 407.0 0 0 4 0 664.0 33.6 13.1
2030 13.7 16.9 460.4 0 0 3 ti) 664.0 38.9 15.1
2035 9.5 3.3 520.9 0 -0 -0 .0 664.0 45.0 17.3
2040 0 0 589.4 0 0 0 0 664.0 52.0 20.1
2045 0 -0 666.9 -0 0 0 +0 664.0 60.2 23.4
2050 0 0 754.5 0 0 0 0 664.0 69.6 27.4
2055 0 0 815.1 0 0 .0 -0 664.0 78.7 30.5
2060 0 0 852.2 0 0 0 0 664.0 86.7 33.1
2065 +0 0 875.5 0 0 0 0 664.0 93.9 35.3
2070 0 -0 879.1 -0 +0 0 0 664.0 99.4 37.3
2075 0 .0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 100.2 38.8
2080 0 .0 879.1 0 +0 0 0 664.0 100.8 39.6
2085 -0 0 879.1 0 -0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.3
2090 0 0 879.1 0 -0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2095 0 0 879.1 0 0 -0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2100 0 0 879.1 0 a) 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5


c-3
from these scenarios is declining by 2100 due to increasing concentrations of
these greenhouse gases, and their associated global warming. If the
concentrations of these gases are lower than currently expected, either due to
less than expected growth in emissions or due to international agreements to
limit emissions in order to reduce future levels of greenhouse warming, then
the expected amount of ozone depletion would be higher than the levels shown
in Exhibit C-1.

Exhibit C-2 shows estimates of ozone depletion with alternative
assumptions about future concentrations of the greenhouse gases. The Low
Trace Gas Scenario assumes that concentrations grow more slowly than currently
expected. The 2°C Scenario assumes that the greenhouse gas concentrations
will be controlled sufficiently so that equilibrium global warming is limited
toe 2°C by 2075. As shown in the exhibit, the alternative trace gas
assumptions have a significant influence on the estimates of ozone depletion

over the long term.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS*

We would like to thank Rossana Florez and Brian Hicks of ICF
Incorporated for their assistance in making computer runs in preparation of
this paper.

In addition, we would like to thank all the reviewers who helped to
improve the paper through their comments. In particular, we are grateful to
the following reviewers: Dan Albriton; Peter Connell; Hugh Farber; Paul
Fraser; Michael Harris; Mack McFarland; Michael Oppenheimer; F. Sherwood
Rowland; Richard Stolarski; and Nien Dak Sze.

Finally, we would like to thank the EPA Science Advisory Board

Committee on Stratospheric Ozone for their review of the model that was used
to prepare this report.

* Michael Gibbs is Vice President of ICF Incorporated and is employed in the
ICF office in Universal City, California.

ii


EXHIBIT B-66

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:3 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CHBCCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 26.9
1995, 351.7 0 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 4107.4
2000 191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8 297.4

2005 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 403.4
2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.0 664.0 19.7 8.4 537.0
2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 664.0 24.2 9.9 645.2
2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 664.0 29.0 11.3 755.9
2025 9.5 3.3 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 33.6 13.1 863.7
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 38.9 15.1 982.0
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 45.0 47.3 191141
2040 0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 52.0 20.1 1257.

2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 60.2 23.4 1422.3
2050 0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 69.6 27.4 1609.2
2055 0.0 0.0 853.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 80.2 31.7 1820.6
2060 0.0 0.0 965.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 92.0 36.4 2059.9
2065 0.0 0.0 1092.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 105.2 41.7 2330.6
2070 0.0 0.0 1236.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 119.9 47.6 2636.9
2075 0.0 0.0 1398.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 135.7 54.1 2983.4
2080 0.0 0.0 1582.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 153.6 61.4 3375.4
2085 0.0 0.0 1790.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 173.8 69.7 3819.0
2090 0.0 0.0 2025.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 196.7 78.9 4320.8
2095, 0.0 0.0 2292.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 222.5 89.2 4888.6
2100 0.0 0.0 2593.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 251.8 101.0 5531.0

*

Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


8-33

EXHIBIT B-27
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and Post-2050 Growth (1990)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

Crc-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CClL4 = CH3CCL3 H-1211 H- 130)

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 116.9 186.4 122.2 13.6 4.2 5.5 11.4 615.7 2.8 2.4
1995 115.3 82.0 165.4 18.5 1.6 3.6 14.2 627.5 3.0 2.1
2000 «123.4 112.2 206.1 23.8 1.9 2.8 16.9 639.4 3.8 2.0
2005 136.1 141.3 245.4 25.1 2.0 2.4 17.9 645.8 5.6 2.0
2010 76.1 92.1 280.3 26.5 2.2 9 18.9 652.8 2.5 2.3
2015 81.6 99.4 317.8 28.0 2.3 1.0 20.0 660.5 3.0 1.5
2020 86.9 105.7 359.7 29.6 2.4 1.0 21.2 668.9 2.7 1.5
2025 92.0 112.0 407.0 31.3 2.6 1.4 22.5 678.0 3.0 1.6
2030 97.4 118.7 460.4 33.1 2.7 1.4 23.8 687.9 3.2 oD
2035 103.2 125.8 520.9 34.9 2.9 1.2 25.2 698.8 3.4 2
2040 109.3 133.3 589.4 36.9 3.0 1.3 26.7 710.6 3.6 1.0
2045 115.8 141.3 666.9 39.0 3.2 1.4 28.3 723.5 3.9 1.

2050 «122.7 149.7 754.5 41.3 3.4 1.4 30.0 737.6 4.2 1.2
2055 129.9 158.7 853.6 43.6 3.6 1.5 31.8 752.9 4.5 1.3
2060 137.7 168.2 965.8 46.1 3.8 1.6 33.7 769.7 4.8 1.3
2065 145.8 178.3 1092.7 48.8 4.1 1.7 35.7 788.0 5.1 1.4
2070 = 154.5 189.0 1236.3 51.5 4.3 1.8 37.9 808.0 5.4 1.5
2075 163.7 200.4 1398.8 54.5 4.6 1.9 40.1 829.9 5.7 1.6
2080 173.5 212.4 1582.6 57.6 4.8 2. 42.6 853.7 6.1 1.7
2085 183.8 225.2 1790.5 60.9 5.1 2.2 45.1 879.8 6.4 1.8
2090 194.8 238.8 2025.8 64.5 5.4 2.3 47.8 908.3 6.8 2.0
2095 206.4 253.2 2292.0 68.2 5.8 2.4 50.7 939.4 7.2 2.1
2100 «218.8 268.4 2593.2 72.1 6.1 2.6 53.7 973.4 7.6 2.2


APPENDIX A


PARTS PER BILLION

-50-
EXHIBIT 22
SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR ALTERNATIVE POST-2050 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS:

100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE;
100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE AND 100% PARTICIPATION

3.0

2.5 7

Post-2050 Growth
2.0 + 1

15 4

1.0

Less Than 100% Participation

0.5

00 Post-2050 Growth

100% Participation

No Growth After 205:

T
2085

Two lines are displayed for each of the two cases. One line for each is based
on the assumption that baseline compound use stops growing in 2050. The
second line assumes that baseline compound growth continues from 2050 to 2100
at a rate of 2.5 percent per year. As anticipated, higher levels of Clx are
simulated by 2100 when compound use continues to grow beyond 2050.


B-28

EXHIBIT B-22

90 Percent Reduction Scenario (1990)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4 cu3cci3 = H-1211 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 140.0 209.9 122.2 31.9 5.3 5.6 20.1 738.1 2.8 2.5
1995 141.2 117.6 165.4 37.9 2.9 4.0 22.8 866.4 3.2 2.3
2000 151.2 149.5 206.1 44.2 3.2 3.4 25.4 992.9 4.2 2.2
2005 165.5 179.8 245.4 45.6 3.3 3.0 26.4 1123.4 6.1 2.3
2010) 111.7 135.5 280.3 47.0 3.5 1.6 27.4 1271.0 3.5 2.6
2015 117.0 142.9 317.8 48.5 3.6 1.7 28.5 1438.1 4d 1.9
2020 «122.2 149.1 359.7 50.1 3.7 1.8 29.7 1627.0 4.0 2.0
2025 127.3 155.4 407.0 51.8 3.9 1.8 31.0 1840.9 44 2.2
2030 = 132.7 162.1 460.4 53.5 4.0 1.9 32.3 2082.8 4.7 1.5
2035 138.5 169.2 520.9 55.4 4.2 2.0 33.7 2356.5 5.1 1.6
2040 144.6 176.7 589.4 57.4 4.4 2.0 35.2 2666.1 5.5 1.7
20465 151.1 184.7 666.9 59.5 4.5 2.1 36.8 3016.5 6.0 1.9
2050 = 158.0 193.1 754.5 61.7 4.7 2.2 38.5 3412.9 6.5 2.0
2055 = 159.7 195.8 815.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 7.0 2.1
2060 «161.1 197.5 852.2 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 7.4 2.2
2065 = 162.1 198.8 875.5 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 7.8 2.3
2070 = 162.8 199.2 879.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 8.0 2.4
2075 = 162.8 199.2 879.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 8.0 2.5
2080 = 162.8 199.2 879.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 8.1 2.5
2085 = 162.8 199.2 879.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 8.1 2.5
2090 = 162.8 199.2 879.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 8.1 2.5
2095 = 162.8 199.2 879.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 8.1 2.5

2100 = 162.8 199.2 879.1 61.7 4.8 2.3 38.5 3412.9 8.1 2.5


-26-
implication of this tradeoff is that increasing the stringency of the phaseout
from 90 percent to 100 percent would allow the use of HCFC-22-like substitutes
to be approximately doubled. In other words, by giving up about 125 million
kilograms of CFCs 11, 12 and 113 annually, an additional 235 million kilograms
of substitutes could be used in the year 2000 without increasing Clx levels.
By the year 2050 an additional 870 million kilograms of substitutes could be
used annually without increasing Clx levels.

This analysis indicates that within the Protocol framework, increases
in chlorine levels can be kept to relatively low levels if the following is
achieved: almost 100 percent participation; no future growth in CH3CC13
emissions; low rate of substitution of other ozone-depleting compounds (i.e.,
the HCFCs) ;29 and movement out of all fully-halogenated ozone-depleting
compounds over the long term in order to prevent long term growth in demand.

5.2 Speeding up or Delaying the Phaseout

The timing of the phaseout will influence the trajectory of chlorine
levels over time. Delays will allow additional emissions to increase chlorine
levels. The increased levels will persist over time, increasing the risk of
ozone depletion.

To assess the implications of changing the timing of the phaseout a 100
percent phaseout with 100 percent participation and a CH3CC13 freeze was
examined starting in six different years: 1990; 1993; 1996; 1998; 2003; and
2008. The general Protocol framework was maintained. As shown in Exhibit 33,
the estimated chlorine levels for the six cases vary significantly by 2015.

The differences among the cases persist for decades. In fact, delaying a full

29 as discussed above, even the low rate of substitution allows for
significant increases in the use of these substitutes.


-22-
used for the standard Protocol evaluation. In this case the assumption of
continued growth after 2050 results in simulated increases in Clx levels of
about 2.4 ppbv by 2100 instead of 1.5 ppbv.

The bottom two lines on the exhibit show the case of 100 percent
reduction in the fully-halogenated CFCs, a freeze on CH3CC13, with 100 percent
global participation. In this case the assumption of continued growth in use
after 2050 results in the Clx levels rebounding so that by 2100 the levels are
increasing, although the levels remain below the 1985 simulated values.

Exhibit 23 displays simulated levels of Clx assuming that one kilogram
of a substitute compound is used for each two or five kilograms of CFC-11 and
CFC-12 that are foregone. As above, it is assumed that the substitute has the
atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22 (i.e., about 1/20 the depleting
potential of CFC-11). The substitutions result in modest increases in the
simulated Clx values. In the 100 percent global participation scenario, the
1:5 substitution results in an increase in simulated Clx levels of about 0.4
ppbv by 2100 relative to the no-substitute scenario.

Exhibit 24 displays the implications of having both continued growth
after 2050 and the use of chlorine-bearing substitute compounds. As above, a
substitute with the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22 is assumed for two
levels of substitution. Also, growth after 2050 continues at 2.5 percent per
year. As shown in the exhibit, the combined effect of substitution and
continued growth could result in increased chlorine levels even under
stringent restrictions. Exhibit 24 may present the restrictions most likely
to be necessary to stabilize Clx at current levels: a phaseout of the fully-
halogenated compounds; a freeze in CH3CC13 use at current levels; and

conservative use (e.g., about 1:5 substitution) of partially-halogenated


B-32

EXHIBIT B-26
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1990)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4 = CH3CCL3 =H 1211 H-1304

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 47 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 80.2 153.4 122.2 0 3.1 5.4 +0 606.6 2.7 2.3
1995 67.2 27.8 165.4 10 0 3.2 0 606.6 2.7 1.9
2000 65.1 42.4 206.1 0 0 2.3 -0 606.6 3.1 1.7
2005 71.5 63.4 245.4 0 0 1.7 0 606.6 4.5 1.6
2010 +0 0 280.3 0 0 -0 0 606.6 ) 1.8
2015 0 0 317.8 0 0 0 +0 606.6 6 8
2020 0 0 359.7 0 0 0 +0 606.6 0 8
2025 0 0 407.0 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 o
2030 +0 0 460.4 0 0 0 .0 606.6 0 0
2035 0 0 520.9 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2040 0 0 589.4 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2045 -0 0 666.9 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2050 0 0 754.5 0 0 -0 0 606.6 0 0
2055 0 6 815.1 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2060 0 0 852.2 0 0 +0 .0 606.6 0 0
2065 0 0 875.5 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2070 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2075 0 +0 879.1 +0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2080 0 0 879.1 a) 0 0 0 606.6 +0 0
2085 0 0 879.1 0 +0 0 0 606.6 0 a)
2090 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 a) 606.6 0 0
2095 -0 +0 879.1 +0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2100 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0


-32-
EXHIBIT 4

SIMULATED CHLORINE CONTRIBUTION FROM CFC-11 AND CFC-12
FROM HYPOTHETICAL CONSTANT EMISSIONS OF 300 MILLION KG PER YEAR

Parts Per Billion
25

CFC-11

CFC-12

0.5 }-

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Chlorine contributions over time computed based on the lifetimes and
conversion factors presented in Exhibit 2 and the model described in Appendix
A.


EXHIBIT B-36

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and Post-2050 Growth
and 1:5 Substitution

1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cct4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1304 suBsT *
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
80.2 153.4 122.2 0.0 3.1 5.4 0.0 606.6 2.7 2.3 129.8
67.2 27.8 «165.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 606.6 2.7 1.9 200.
65.1 42.4 206.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 606.6 3.1 1.7 244.3
71.5 63.4 245.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 606.6 4.5 1.6 286.7
0.0 0.0 280.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.5 1.8 358.3
0.0 0.0 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.6 0.8 406.5
0.0 0.0 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.8 460.3
0.0 0.0 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.9 520.8
0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 589.2
0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 666.7
0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 754.3
0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 853.4
0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 965.5
0.0 0.0 853.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1092.4
0.0 0.0 965.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1235.9
0.0 0.0 1092.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1398.4
0.0 0.0 1236.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1582.
0.0 0.0 1398.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1790.0
0.0 0.0 1582.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2025.2
0.0 0.0 1790.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2291.4
0.0 0.0 2025.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2592.5
0.0 0.0 2292.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2933.1
0.0 0.0 2593.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 3318.6

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-63

EXHIBIT B-57

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2
Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 354.7 421.5 165.4 = 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.

2000 213.3 271.0 206.1 49.1 5.7 5.9 34.7 664.0 9.9 5.8 422.5
2005 201.1 216.9 245.4 43.3 3.8 4.4 29.4 664.0 14.8 6.9 575.3
2010 126.5 134.5 280.3 23.2 1.9 2.8 10.8 664.0 19.7 8.4 765.3
2015 98.0 88.2 317.8 23.2 1.6 1.3 10.8 664.0 24.2 9.9 923.3
2020 58.9 71.3 359.7 23.2 1.6 1.1 10.8 664.0 29.0 11.3 1085.7
2025 52.9 58.6 407.0 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 33.6 13.1 1246.3
2030 44.5 55.6 460.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 38.9 15.1 1423.0
2035 44.5 55.6 520.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 45.0 17.3 1616.6
2040 44.5 55.6 589.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 52.0 20.1 1835.6
2045 445 55.6 666.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 60.2 23.4 2083.4
2050 44.5 55.6 754.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 69.6 27.4 2363.8
2055 44.5, 55.6 853.6 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 80.2 31.7 2680.9
2060 44.5, 55.6 965.8 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 92.0 36.4 3039.8
2065 44.5 55.6 1092.7 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 105.2 41.7 3445.9
2070 44.5 55.6 1236.3 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 119.9 47.6 3905.3
2075 44.5 55.6 1398.8 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 135.7 54.1 4425.0
2080 44.5 55.6 1582.6 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 153.6 61.4 5013.0
2085 44.5 55.6 1790.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 173.8 69.7 5698.4
2090 44.5 55.6 2025.8 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 196.7 78.9 6431.2
2095 44.5 55.6 2292.0 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 222.5 89.2 7282.8
2100 44.5 55.6 2593.2 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 251.8 101.0 8246.4

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


PARTS PER BILLION

-56-

EXHIBIT 28

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR ALTERNATIVE STRINGENCY LEVELS

WITH 100% GLOBAL PARTICIPATION:

90% REDUCTION; 95% REDUCTION; 97% REDUCTION; 100% REDUCTION

4.0

3.5 4

0.0
1985

T TT T T TT
2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Assumptions:

°

°

°

Reductions simulated in place of the 50% Protocol Reduction.

100% global participation.

Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.

90%

95%
97%

¢ 100%


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

B-39

EXHIBIT 8-33,

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and Post-2050 Growth with 1:2 Substitution

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl4 CH3CCL3) = -H- 1211 H-1301 SUBST *
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
116.9 186.4 122.2 13.6 4.2 5.5 11.4 615.7 2.8 2.4 289.8
115.3 82.0 165.4 18.5 1.6 3.6 14.2 627.5 3.0 2.1 449.0
123.4 112.2 206.1 23.8 1.9 2.8 16.9 639.4 3.8 2.0 546.8
136.1 141.3 245.4 25.1 2.0 2.4 17.9 645.8 5.6 2.0 645.6

76.1 92.1 280.3 26.5 2.2 0.9 18.9 652.8 2.5 2.3 811.7
81.6 99.4 317.8 28.0 2.3 1.0 20.0 660.5 3.0 1.5 925.9
86.9 105.7 359.7 29.6 2.4 1.0 21.2 668.9 2.7 1.5 1054.5
92.0 112.0 407.0 31.3 2.6 1.1 22.5 678.0 3.0 1.6 1200.0
97.4 118.7 460.4 33.1 2.7 Pa 23.8 687.9 3.2 0.9 1365.0
103.2 125.8 520.9 34.9 2.9 1.2 25.2 698.8 3.4 0.9 1552.2
109.3 133.3 589.4 36.9 3.0 1.3 26.7 710.6 3.6 1.0 1764.4
115.8 141.3 666.9 39.0 3.2 1.4 28.3 723.5 3.9 1.1 2004.4
122.7 149.7 754.5 41.3 3.4 1.4 30.0 737.6 4.2 1.2 2277.6
129.9 158.7 853.6 43.6 3.6 1.5 31.8 752.9 4.5 1.3 2586.6
137.7 168.2 965.8 46.1 3.8 1.6 33.7 769.7 4.8 1.3 2936.9
145.8 178.3 1092.7 48.8 4.4 1.7 35.7 788.0 5.1 1.4 3333.9
154.5 189.0 1236.3 51.5 4.3 1.8 37.9 808.0 5.4 1.5 3783.6
163.7 200.4 1398.9 54.5 4.6 1.9 40.1 829.9 5.7 1.6 4293.0
173.5 212.4 1582.6 57.6 4.8 2.0 42.6 853.7 6.1 1.7 4870.

183.8 225.2 1790.5 60.9 5.1 2.2 45.1 879.8 6.4 1.8 5524.0
194.8 238.8 2025.8 64.5 5.4 2.3 47.8 908.3 6.8 2.0 6264.4
206.4 253.2 2292.0 68.2 5.8 2.4 50.7 939.4 7.2 2.1 7103.1
218.8 268.4 2593.2 72.1 6.4 2.6 53.7 973.4 7.6 2.2 8052.8

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


EXHIBIT B-1

LIST OF EXHIBITS IN APPENDIX B

Exhibit B-2: No Controls: Section 2.1
Exhibit B-3: Protocol: Section 3.1
Exhibit B-4: True Global Freeze: Section 3.1

Exhibit B-5: Protocol with CH3CC13 Freeze: Section 3.1

Exhibit B-6: Protocol: Participation Scenario B: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-7: Protocol: Participation Scenario C: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-8: Protocol: Participation Scenario D: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-9: Protocol: Participation Scenario D’: Section 3.2

Exhibit B-10: Protocol: Particiaption Scenario E: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-11: Protocol: Participation Scenario F: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-12: Protocol: Participation Scenario G: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-13: Protocol: Participation Scenario H: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-14: Protocol: Participation Scenario I: Section 3.2
Exhibit B-15: Protocol: 1:1 Substitution Scenario: Section 3.3
Exhibit B-16: Protocol: 1:2 Substitution Scenario: Section 3.3
Exhibit B-17: Protocol: 1:5 Substitution Scenario: Section 3.3
Exhibit B-18: Protocol: 1:10 Substitution Scenario: Section 3.3
Exhibit B-19: Protocol: 1:1* Substitution Scenario: Section 3.3
Exhibit B-20: No Controls: 2.5 Percent Growth after 2050: Section 3.4
Exhibit B-21: Protocol: 2.5 Percent Growth After 2050: Section 3.4
Exhibit B-22: 90 Percent Reduction Scenario (1990): Section 4.1

Exhibit B-23: 90 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1990):
Section 4.1


-28-
future chlorine levels would be relatively small. The timing of a phaseout
affects both the magnitude of the Clx increase and the time required for Clx

levels to decline back to 1985 values.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

Protocol:

B-21

EXHIBIT B-15

1:1 Substitution Scenario

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 -1211 Hz1301 SUBST *
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8 77.7
359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 5.6 4.4 306.3
321.5 392.8 206.1 140.6 10.6 7.0 73.1 992.9 8.3 4.8 614.9
330.3 390.4 245.4 138.2 9.8 6.4 70.6 1123.4 1.7 5.3 847.9
309.9 367.9 280.3 134.0 9.4 5.7 66.5 1271.0 14.7 6.0 1113.8
298.5 356.8 317.8 135.5 9.4 5.2 67.6 1438.1 15.2 6.4 1377.4
287.4 355.8 359.7 137.1 9.5 5.1 68.8 1627.0 16.4 6.4 1658.4
290.0 358-3 407.0 138.8 9.7 5.1 70.1 1840.9 16.5 6.6 1955.7
293.1 364.1 460.4 140.6 9.8 5.2 71.4 2082.8 16.9 6.6 2288.9
298.9 371.2 520.9 142.5 10.0 5.3 72.8 2356.5 17.2 6.5 2663.2
305.0 378.7 589.4 144.4 10.2 5.3 74.3 2666.1 17.6 6.6 3087.6
311.5 386.7 666.9 146.5 10.4 5.4 75.9 3016.5 18.0 6.8 3568.7
318.3 395.2 754.5 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.5 7.0 4114.1
320.1 397.8 815.1 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.9 7.2 4286.3
321.4 399.5 852.2 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.3 7.3 4393.4
322.5 400-8 875.5 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.6 7.4 4482.8
323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.5 4527.9
323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 4527.9
323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 4527.9
323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 4527.9
323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 4527.9
323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 4527.9
323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 4527.9

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


-9-

Developing Nations are assumed to achieve 65 percent participation (see EPA
1988 for a discussion of the participation assumptions).’ Alternative
participation assumptions are explored below.

2.2 The Effects of Chemical Lifetimes on Chlorine Contributions

The emissions of the compounds are translated into Clx and halon levels
using atmospheric lifetimes and conversion factors for each compound (see
Exhibit 2). The lifetimes indicate how long the chlorine associated with the
compounds will remain in the atmosphere .® As shown in the exhibit, the
lifetimes of the compounds vary from about 8 years (CH3CC13) to 380 years
(CFC-115). For the compounds other than the halons, the conversion factors
convert emissions in millions of kilograms into ppbv of Clx and adjust for the
relative efficiencies of the various compounds in supplying ozone-depleting
chlorine to the stratosphere. The conversion factors for the halons convert
millions of kilograms of emissions into atmospheric abundances in pptv for
each compound. Also used is a mixing time of 3.5 years to simulate the time
needed for the emissions to rise into the stratosphere.

Note that the chlorine contribution of Halon 1211 is not counted in the

Clx levels reported below. Because halons are treated separately in the

7 The basis for these participation estimates includes participation in
the Protocol process to date and judgments about the current receptiveness of
nations to the Protocol. Alternative judgments are possible, and are tested
below. Of note is that the non-participants are assumed to experience reduced
use of the compounds in response to the development (by the participants) of
technologies that do not rely on ozone depleters (see EPA 1988, Appendix C).
For the years following 2000, the non-participants in the USSR, East Bloc, and
other developed nations are assumed to experience 37.5 percent of their
baseline growth rate, or about 0.94 percent growth per year. In developing
nations it is assumed that non-participants experience 50 percent of their
baseline growth rate, or about 1.25 percent per year.

8 the lifetimes are "e-folding" lifetimes, meaning that after the period
of one lifetime has elapsed, the remaining level in the atmosphere is 1/e or
about 37 percent of the original value. See Appendix A for a description of
the model used to compute atmospheric levels


Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

B-24:

B-25:

B-26:

B-27:

B-28:

B-29:

B-30:

B-31:

B-32:

B-33:

B-34:

B-35:

B-36:

B-37:

B-4

EXHIBIT B-1 (Continued)

LIST OF EXHIBITS IN APPENDIX B

100 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1990):

Section 4.1
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze
Participation (1990): Section 4.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze
Growth (1990): Section 4.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze

Participation and Post-2050 Growth (1990):

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze
(1990): Section 4.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze

Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1990):

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze
(1990): Section 4.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze

Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1990):

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze
and 1:2 Substitution (1990): Section 4.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze
and 1:5 Substitution (1990): Section 4.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze

(1990): Section 4.1

and 100 Percent

and Post-2050

and 100 Percent
Section 4.2

and 1:5 Substitution

and 100 Percent
Section 4.2

and 1:2 Substitution

and 100 Percent
Section 4.2

and Post-2050 Growth

and Post-2050 Growth

and 100 Percent

Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1990):

Section 4.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze

and 100 Percent

Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1990):

Section 4.2

90 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998 -- Protocol Structure):

Section 5.1


EXHIBIT B-4
True Global Freeze
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4 CH3CCL3 -H-1211 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1

1990 348.7 415.3 116.2 180.3 15.2 7.4 96.6 606.6 3.1 3.5

1995 373.7 424.3 137.6 180.3 14.4 8.1 96.6 606.6 4.6 4.5

2000 §=6399.7 460.4 152.6 180.3 14.4 9.0 96.6 606.6 6.4 5.4
2005 426.5 495.7 163.0 180.3 14.4 9.5 96.6 606.6 8.9 6.3
2010 424.9 488.4 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.1 7.2
2015 424.7 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 7.6
2020 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.0
2025 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.4
2030 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2035 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2040 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2045 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2050 «424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2055 = 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2060 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2065 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2070 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2075 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2080 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2085 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2090 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3
2095 = 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3

2100 424.6 488.7 159.1 180.3 14.4 9.9 96.6 606.6 9.3 8.3


-5-
climate-induced shifts in atmospheric dynamics threaten stratospheric ozone,

chlorine and bromine are inadequate measures of the potential risk of ozone

depletion. 3

1.1 The Concept and Meaning of Stabilization

The concept of stabilizing current chlorine and bromine levels as a
means of preventing additional ozone depletion, or the risk of depletion, has
received widespread attention. In particular, public references are
frequently made to an 85 percent reduction in CFC-12 which is required in
order to stabilize the chlorine contribution from that compound.

While stabilizing chlorine and bromine from all chemical sources should
stabilize the risk of further ozone depletions in the absence of other
chemical or dynamical changes (i.e., assuming all other factors remain
unchanged), emphasis must be placed on the inclusion of all industrial sources
of these ozone-depleting chemicals. As is shown below, the potential chlorine
contributions from non-regulated compounds (e.g., methyl chloroform, HCFC-22)
must be considered in order to achieve the goal of stabilizing chlorine and
bromine levels. The risk of additional ozone depletion is a function of
increases in the levels of chlorine and bromine from regulated and non-
regulated compounds alike. Thus, while an 85 percent reduction is sufficient

to stabilize chlorine levels from one compound (i.e., CFC-12), it is not

3 one reviewer also noted that the chlorine and bromine values estimated
using the algorithm used in this analysis cannot be a perfect measure of ozone
depletion risk because the algorithm is based on results of 1-D models in
which the downward and poleward transport of chlorine (and bromine) are
ignored. To the extent that some compounds contribute relatively more
chlorine (or bromine) to latitudes and altitudes of high ozone, simple
chlorine (and bromine) estimates will not reflect precisely the relative or
absolute ozone depletion potential of different compounds. Investigations are
currently under way to evaluate the implications of the simplifying
assumptions used in this analysis for estimates of the relative risks
associated with the contributions of chlorine from each of the compounds.


B-38

EXHIBIT B-32
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1990)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 = H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 80.2 153.4 122.2 0.0 3.1 5.4 0.0 606.6 2.7 2.3 324.6
1995 67.2 27.8 165.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 606.6 2.7 4.9 500.2
2000 65.1 42.4 206.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 606.6 3.1 1.7 610.9
2005 71.5 63.4 245.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 606.6 4.5 1.6 716.9
2010 0.0 0.0 280.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.5 1.8 895.8
2015 0.0 0.0 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.6 0.8 1016.4
2020 0.0 0.0 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.8 1150.8
2025 0.0 0.0 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.9 1302.0
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1473.1
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1666.7
2040 0.0 , 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 + 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1885.6
2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2133.5
2050 0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2413.8
2055 0.0 0.0 815.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2502.1
2060 0.0 0.0 852.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2557.2
2065 0.0 0.0 875.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2603.1
2070 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2626.2
2075 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2626.2
2080 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2626.2
2085 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2626.2
2090 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2626.2
2095 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2626.2
2100 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2626.2

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-8

EXHIBIT B-2
Wo Controls

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 col4 cH3ccl3 =H-1211 H-1301
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 401.1 481.7 122.2 241.9 17.5 7.9 118.7 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 491.6 603.7 165.4 304.5 21.3 9.3 140.3 866.4 6.2 5.0
2000 586.7 742.5 206.1 371.9 24.4 11.5 162.0 992.9 9.9 5.8
2005 689.0 879.6 245.4 420.7 27.7 13.5 183.3 1123.4 14.8 6.9
2010 787.6 1004.0 280.3 476.0 31.3 15.4 207.4 1271.0 19.7 8.4
2015 893.0 1139.7 317.8 538.6 35.4 17.5 234.6 1438.1 24.2 9.9
2020 1011.0 1290.6 359.7 609.3 40.1 19.8 265.5 1627.0 29.0 11.3
2025 1143.8 1460.2 407.0 689.4 45.4 22.4 300.3 1840.9 33.6 13.1
2030 1294.1 1652.0 460.4 780.0 51.3 25.3 339.8 2082.8 38.9 15.1

2035 1464.2 1869.1 520.9 882.5 58.1 28.6 384.5 2356.5 45.0 17.3
2040 1656.6 2114.7 589.4 998.4 65.7 32.4 435.0 2666.1 52.0 20.1
2045 1874.3 2392.6 666.9 1129.6 74.3 36.7 492.1 3016.5 60.2 23.4
2050 2120.6 2707.0 754.5 1278.1 84.1 41.5 556.8 3412.9 69.6 27.4
2055 2193.7 2810.5 815.1 1278.1 85.2 44.8 556.8 3412.9 78.7 30.5
2060 2252.3 2862.0 852.2 1278.1 85.2 46.9 556.8 3412.9 86.7 33.

2065 2300.8 2905.3 875.5 1278.1 85.2 48.2 556.8 3412.9 93.9 35.3
2070 2332.4 2919.9 879.1 1278.1 85.2 48.3 556.8 3412.9 99.4 37.3
2075 2332.4 2919.9 879.1 1278.1 85.2 48.3 556.8 3412.9 100.2 38.8
2080 2332.4 2919.9 879.1 1278.1 85.2 48.3 556.8 3412.9 100.8 39.6
2085 2332.4 2919.9 879.1 1278.1 85.2 48.3 556.8 3412.9 100.8 40.3
2090 2332.4 2919.9 879.1 1278.1 85.2 48.3 556.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2095 2332.4 2919.9 879.1 1278.1 85.2 48.3 556.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2100 2332.4 2919.9 879.1 1278.1 85.2 48.3 556.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5


B-34

EXHIBIT B-28
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 and 100 Percent Partipation and Post-2050 Growth (1990)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-41 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 col4 cH3cct3 H-1211 H-13014

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 80.2 153.4 122.2 0 3.1 5.4 0 606.6 2.7 2.3
1995 67.2 27.8 165.4 -0 0 3.2 0 606.6 2.7 1.9
2000 65.1 42.4 206.1 0 0 2.3 0 606.6 3.1 1.7
2005 71.5 63.4 245.4 0 +0 1.7 0 606.6 4.5 1.6
2010 0 0 280.3 -0 0 a) 0 606.6 5 1.8
2015 0 0 317.8 -0 0 0 0 606.6 6 8
2020 0 .0 359.7 .0 .0 0 0 606.6 0 a)
2025 0 -0 407.0 0 .0 0 0 606.6 0 a
2030 0 0 460.4 0 .0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2035 0 0 520.9 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2040 0 0 589.4 0 .0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2045 -0 0 666.9 0 +0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2050 0 .0 754.5 0 -0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2055 0 0 853.6 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2060 0 0 965.8 0 .0 0 0 606.6 a) 0
2065 0 +0 = 1092.7 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2070 0 -0 1236.3 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2075 0 0 1398.8 a) 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2080 0 0 1582.6 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 -0
2085 0 ~0 = 1790.5 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2090 0 0 = 2025.8 0 0 0 0 606.6 0 0
2095 0 -0 2292.0 0 +0 a) 0 606.6 0 0

2100 0 0 2593.2 0 +0 0 0 606.6 0 0


EXHIBIT B-13

Protocol: Participation Scenario 4

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 col4 CH3CCl3 = H- 1211 H-130.

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 369.6 445.2 122.2 205.8 15.9 6.9 106.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 380.5 450.5 165.4 197.2 14.6 7.4 100.2 866.4 5.7 4h
2000 «6364.7 438.3 206.1 166.1 12.0 7.3 85.6 992.9 8.5 4.9
2005 = =385.0 451.2 245.4 167.4 11.5 6.9 85.8 1123.4 12.2 5.5
2010 379.3 446.7 280.3 167.7 1105 6.4 85.0 1271.0 15.5 6.2
2015 377.5 448.3 317.8 171.7 11.7 6.0 87.6 1438.1 16.5 7
2020 375.9 456.9 359.7 175.9 12.0 6.1 90.3 1627.0 18.1 6.8
2025 386.3 468.7 407.0 180.4 12.3 6.2 93.2 1840.9 18.7 7.2
2030 397.5 483.2 460.4 185.1 12.7 6.4 96.2 2082.8 19.5 7.3
2035 410.8 499.1 520.9 190.0 13.0 6.5 99.4 2356.5 20.3 7.3
2040 424.9 515.9 589.4 195.2 13.4 6.7 102.8 2666.1 24.1 7.6
2045 = 439.8 533.7 666.9 200.7 13.8 6.9 106.4 3016.5 22.1 7.9
2050 455.5 552.5 754.5 206.5 14.3 7.0 110.2 3412.9 23.2 8.3
2055, 459.6 558.4 815.1 206.5 14.3 7.2 110.2 3412.9 24.2 8.6
2060 462.7 562.0 852.2 206.5 14.3 7.2 110.2 3412.9 25.1 8.9
2065 465.1 565.0 875.5 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 25.8 9.1
2070 = 466.6 565.8 879.1 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 26.3 9.3
2075 466.6 565.8 879.1 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 26.4 9.4
2080 466.6 565.8 879.1 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 26.4 9.5
2085 466.6 565.8 879.1 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 26.4 9.5
2090 466.6 565.8 879.1 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 26.4 9.5
2095 466.6 565.8 879.1 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 26.4 9.5

2100 466.6 565.8 879.1 206.5 14.3 7.3 110.2 3412.9 26.4 9.5


PARTS PER BILLION

-58-

EXHIBIT 30

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR ALTERNATIVE STRINGENCY LEVELS AND

SUBSTITUTION ASSUMPTIONS WITH 100% GLOBAL PARTICIPATION
AND A CH3CC13 FREEZE:

90% REDUCTION; 95% REDUCTION; 97% REDUCTION; 100% REDUCTION

3.0

24-4
22-4
2.0
1.8
16
14

1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

1:2 Substitution

95%
97%

95%
97%

100%

0.0

T T T
2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Assumptions:

°

°

Reductions simulated in place of the 50% Protocol Reduction.
100% Global Participation.
CH3CC13 freeze at 1986 levels in 1989.

Substitute assumed to have the atmospheric characteristics of .
HCFC-22.

Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


PARTS PER TRILLION

-54-

EXHIBIT 26

SIMULATED HALON 1211 ABUNDANCES:
90% REDUCTION; 90% REDUCTION AND 100% PARTICIPATION;
100% REDUCTION AND 100% PARTICIPATION

3.0
2.5 7
2.0 5
S0% Reductionwith ==
154 Less Than 100% Participation
10 4
90% Reduction with
05 4 100% Participation
0.0 ———
100% Reduction with
100% Participation
0.5 5
-1.0 EEE SL 1 a
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Halon 1211 is assumed to be released slowly over 30 years after it is placed
in fire extinguishers. Most of the emissions occur within the first 20 years
after charging. Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


18-

of 1.0 ppbv by 2100. The more likely scenarios of 1:5 and 1:10 indicate less

of an increase in Clx, with 1:5 producing an increase of an additional 0.4
ppbv by 2100.29

3.4 Impact of Post-2050 Growth Assumptions

The above analyses assumes that the use of all the analyzed compounds

levels out in 2050. In fact, assuming that the world's population and economy

continue to grow beyond 2050 may imply continued growth in the demand for
products and services that would use these compounds if available. Exhibit 17
displays simulated Clx levels for the No Controls and Protocol cases under the
standard assumption of no growth following 2050, and under an alternative
assumption of continued 2.5 percent annual growth following 2050. In the
Protocol Post-2050 Growth case, continued growth occurs among non-
participants and for non-controlled compounds.

As shown in the exhibit, continued growth results in substantially
higher Clx levels. In particular, one sees in the exhibit that the modest
extent of leveling out of Clx that occurs in the long run in the Protocol case
is in fact driven by the assumption of no growth in demand following 2050.
When this assumption is relaxed, it appears as though the Protocol would allow
higher long term Clx increases.

3.5 Potential Future Halon Levels

Exhibit 18 presents estimates of potential future halon levels for the

No Controls and Protocol scenarios. Although Halon 1301 emissions are modeled

to be less than the Halon 1211 emissions (see Appendix B), the Halon 1301

20 analysis in EPA (1988) indicates that the potential for substitution
of ozone-depleting compounds for CFC-11 and CFC-12 is relatively small, on the
order of 1:5 or 1:10. Because HFC-134a (which may substitute for CFC-12) does
not have any ozone-depleting chlorine, a 1:1 ratio of substitution with
chlorine-bearing compounds is very unlikely even if there were no other
control options and even if future use of substitutes were not moderated due
to increased costs relative to currently-used CFCs.


-45-
EXHIBIT 17

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx: NO CONTROLS AND PROTOCOL
WITH ALTERNATIVE POST-2050 GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS

mo — —— —
oo 4
50.04
é No Contos:
4 Post 2050 Growth,
a 40 4
Fd
m et
&
ge ‘No Contols
&
g
é
204
004
a
004 : 1 oe
1985 2005 2025 2045 20005 2085
Wo . j
130 4
20 4
04
Protocol:
1004 Post-2050 Growth
§ 904
a so
5
10 4
& Foren
Bp 604
2 504
&
404
30 4
20 4
104
oo

1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

o Protocol Participation: U.S. participation; 94% of other
developed nations; 65% of developing nations.

o Baseline compound use grows by 2.5 percent per year after 2050


PARTS PER BILLION

-49-

EXHIBIT 21

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx:
PROTOCOL; 100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE;
100% REDUCTION WITH CH3CC13 FREEZE AND 100% PARTICIPATION

90

8.0 4

5.0 4

4.0 4

Protocol

100% Reduction with CH3CCI3 Freeze
and Less Than 100% Participation

0.0
100% Reduction with CH3CCI3 Freeze PF |

and 100% Participation

-1.0 7

T T
1985 2005 2025

Assumptions:

o Protocol participation: U.S. participation; 94% of developed

T T T
2045 2065 2085

nations; 65% of developing nations.

o 100% reduction in the fully-halogenated CFCs and the CH3CC13

freeze are simulated in 1990.

o Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

Exhibit

B-63:

B-64:

B-65:

B-66:

B-67:

B-68:

B-69:

B-70:

B-71:

B-72:

EXHIBIT B-1 (Continued)
LIST OF EXHIBITS IN APPENDIX B

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998
Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998
- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2.5 Substitution (1998
-- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation and Post-2050 Growth and 1:3 Substitution (1998
- Protocol Structure): Section 5.1

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1990 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1993 -- Prtocol Structure): Section 5.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1996 -- Protocol Structure) Section 5.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (1998 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (2003 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.2

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC13 Freeze and 100 Percent
Participation (2008 -- Protocol Structure): Section 5.2


B-69

EXHIBIT B-63

97 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3  H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 197.8 253.5 206.1 34.8 5.0 5.7 29.0 664.0 9.9 5.8 175.6
2005 183.7 192.6 245.4 29.1 2.9 4.0 23.7 664.0 14.8 6.9 238.5
2010 102.0 102.7 280.3 7.0 0.8 2.4 3.2 664.0 19.7 8.4 317.4
2015 71.7 52.1 317.8 7.0 0.5 0.7 3.2 664.0 24.2 9.9 381.8
2020 28.9 33.8 359.7 7.0 0.5 0.5 3.2 664.0 29.0 11.3 447.8
2025 22.5 19.9 407.0 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 33.6 13.1 512.3
2030 13.4 16.7 460.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 38.9 15.1 583.2
2035 13.4 16.7 520.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 45.0 17.3 660.6
2040 13.4 16.7 589.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 52.0 20.1 748.2
2045 13.4 16.7 666.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 60.2 23.4 847.4
2050 13.4 16.7 9 754.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 69.6 27.4 959.5
2055 13.4 16.7 853.6 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 80.2 31.7 1086.4
2060 13.4 16.7 965.8 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 92.0 36.4 1229.9
2065 13.4 16.7 1092.7 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 105.2 41.7 1392.3
2070 13.4 16.7 1236.3 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 119.9 47.6 1576.

2075 13.4 16.7 1398.8 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 135.7 54.1 1784.0
2080 13.4 16.7 1582.6 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 153.6 61.4 2019.2
2085 13.4 16.7 1790.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 173.8 69.7 2285.4
2090 13.4 16.7 2025.8 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 196.7 78.9 2586.5
2095 13.4 16.7 2292.0 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 222.5 89.2 2927.1
2100 13.4 16.7 2593.2 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 251.8 101.0 3312.6

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-62

EXHIBIT B-56
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8 178.4
2005 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 242.0

2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.0 664.0 19.7 8.4 322.2
2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 664.0 24.2 9.9 387.1
2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 664.0 29.0 14.3 453.6
2025 9.5 3.3 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 33.6 13.1 518.2
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 38.9 15.1 589.2
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 45.0 17.3 666.7
2040 0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 52.0 20.1 754.3
2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 60.2 23.4 853.4
2050 0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 69.6 27.4 965.5
2055 0.0 0.0 815.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 78.7 30.5 1000.8
2060 0.0 0.0 852.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 86.7 33.1 1022.9
2065 0.0 0.0 875.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 93.9 35.3 1041.2
2070 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 99.4 37.3 1050.5
2075 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.2 38.8 1050.5
2080 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 39.6 1050.5
2085 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.3 1050.5
2090 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.5 1050.5
2095 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.5 1050.5
2100 0.0 0.0 879.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 100.8 40.5 1050.5

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


13-

the tradeoffs among compounds allowable under the Protocol could
unintentionally worsen the greenhouse impacts of the CFCs.
3. EVALUATION OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL

3.1 Potential Future Clx Levels

By agreeing to and implementing the Montreal Protocol, the nations of
the world are altering the future trajectory of Clx levels. Exhibit 8
presents a graph of changes in Clx for three scenarios of emissions: No
Controls; 11 Protocol; 12 and a True Global Freeze. The No Controls scenario
shows large increases in Clx by 2100. The Protocol (under standard
participation and growth assumptions) and True Global Freeze scenarios show
approximately the same Clx increases (about 6.7 to 7.6 ppbv by 2100).13 The
True Global Freeze scenario assumes that the use of all the chlorine
containing compounds (including HCFC-22 and methyl chloroform) is frozen at
1986 levels starting in 1990, and that 100 percent participation is achieved
worldwide. An alternative formulation of the Protocol, in which methyl
chloroform is also assumed to be frozen at 1986 levels, shows less of an
increase in Clx over the long term, 14

Note that even by 2100 the Clx values in the Protocol and True Global

Freeze scenario have not stabilized. Despite having constant emissions for

11 as described above, the No Controls scenario assumes average annual
growth in use of 2.8 percent from 1985 to 2050 and no growth thereafter.

12 the Montreal Protocol calls for a limit on the use of CFC-11, -12,
113, -114 and 115 at 1986 levels starting in 1989, a 20 percent reduction
from 1986 levels in 1993, and a 50 percent reduction from 1986 levels in 1998.
It also calls for a limit on halon use at 1986 levels starting in 1992.

13 The chlorine values are increases in Clx relative to current levels of
about 2.7 ppbv. Total Clx levels in 2100 are simulated to be about 9.4 to
10.3 ppbv for these two scenarios

14 Methyl chloroform may be frozen due to international agreement to
limit emissions or due to a lack of demand. At least one reviewer associated
with a chemical manufacturer considered methyl chloroform growth to be unlikely


B-64

EXHIBIT B-58

95 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.
2000 202.2 258.5 206.1 38.9 5.2 5.7 30.7 664.0 9.9 5.8 434.3

2005 188.7 199.6 245.4 33.2 3.2 4.1 25.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 590.2
2010 109.0 111.8 280.3 11.6 1.1 2.5 5.4 664.0 19.7 8.4 785.4
2015 79.2 62.4 317.8 11.6 0.8 0.9 5.4 664.0 24.2 9.9 945.6
2020 37.4 44.5 359.7 11.6 0.8 0.7 5.4 664.0 29.0 11.3, 1109.9
2025 31.2 31.0 407.0 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 33.6 13.1 1270.9
2030 22.3 27.8 460.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 38.9 15.1 1448.0
2035 22.3 27.8 520.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 45.0 17.3 1641.6
2040 22.3 27.8 589.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 52.0 20.1 1860.6
2045 22.3 27.8 666.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 60.2 23.4 2108.4
2050 22.3 27.8 754.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 69.6 27.4 2388.8
2055 22.3 27.8 853.6 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 80.2 31.7 2705.9
2060 22.3 27.8 965.8 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 92.0 36.4 3064.8
2065 22.3 27.8 1092.7 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 105.2 41.7 3470.9
2070 22.3 27.8 1236.3 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 119.9 47.6 3930.3
2075 22.3 27.8 1398.8 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 135.7 54.1 4450.0
2080 22.3 27.8 1582.6 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 153.6 61.4 5038.0
2085 22.3 27.8 1790.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 173.8 69.7 5703.4
2090 22.3 27.8 2025.8 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 196.7 78.9 6456.2
2095 22.3 27.8 2292.0 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 222.5 89.2 7307.8
2100 22.3 27.8 2593.2 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 251.8 101.0 8271.4

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


PARTS PER TRILLION

-53-
EXHIBIT 25
SIMULATED HALON 1301 ABUNDANCES:

90% REDUCTION; 90% REDUCTION AND 100% PARTICIPATION;
100% REDUCTION AND 100% PARTICIPATION

6.0

5.0 5 90% Reduction with
Less Than 100% Participation

4.0 +

3.0 4
90% Reduction with
100% Participation

2.0 4

1.0 4 "oo
100% Reduction with

100% Participation

T T T
1985 2005 2025 2065 2085

Halon 1301 is assumed to be released slowly over 40 years after it is placed
in fire extinguishing systems. Most of the emissions occur within the first
25 years after charging. Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant

after 2050.


-2-

2. An immediate 100 percent reduction in the use of all fully-halogenated
compounds and a freeze in methyl chloroform would be needed to
essentially stabilize chlorine and halon atmospheric abundances at
current levels during the next 100 years.

3. Future chlorine growth has several sources.

o In our "standard" evaluation! of the impact of the Protocol,
chlorine-containing chemicals not covered by the Protocol
account for about 40 percent of the projected growth in
stratospheric chlorine levels by 2075 (assuming methyl
chloroform use grows as projected by some analysts).

o Emissions from non-participant nations are projected to account
for about 15 percent of the chlorine growth in the standard
protocol scenario.

o About 45 percent of projected chlorine growth in the standard
Protocol scenario stems from allowed use of controlled compounds
under that agreement.

o For the scenarios in which methyl chloroform grows, it accounts
for over 80 percent of the growth in chlorine levels associated
with substances not covered by the Protocol. If its emissions
do not grow from current levels, methyl chloroform's
contribution would be much lower.

4. The projected levels of chlorine under the Montreal Protocol are
influenced by the extent to which the use of partially-halogenated
compounds increases as they substitute for the foregone CFCs covered by
the Protocol.

o Under worst case assumptions -- HCFC-22 (or other compounds such
as HCFC-141b, -142b, or 123)2 substitute one-for-two for all the
CFC-11 and CFC-12 foregone -- chlorine concentrations could

increase by about an additional 1.0 ppbv by 2100 due to the
increased use of these substitutes.

1 Our standard evaluation of the Protocol includes: 100 percent U.S,
participation; 94 percent participation among other developed nations; 65
percent participation among developing nations; reduced growth in compound use
among non-participants; no growth in compound use after 2050.

2 sHCFC" stands for "hydrochlorofluorocarbon," i.e., chlorofuorocarbon
with a hydrogen atom. The hydrogen atom reduces the amount of chlorine
transported to the stratosphere by increasing the oxidation rate in the lower
atmosphere.


A-6
EXHIBIT A-2
CONTRIBUTION OF PRE-1985 EMISSIONS TO
POST-1985 CHANGES IN Clx

Change in

Clx

Year (ppbv)
1985 0.000
1990 0.045
1995 -0.079
2000 -0.206
2005 -0.316
2015 -0.495
2020 -0.571
2025 -0.641
2030 -0.706
2035 -0.767
2040 -0.823
2045 -0.876
2050 -0.926
2055 -0.973
2060 -1.017
2065 -1.059
2070 -1.098
2075 -1.135

Source: Connell (1986).


-27-
phaseout from 1998 to 2008 increases the maximum chlorine level by about 0.7
ppbv and delays the decline back to 1985 levels by about 70 years.

Because the differences among the cases persist for many years, the
differences in the cumulative amount of chlorine contributed over time is a
useful measure for evaluating the implications of the alternative timings
Exhibit 34 shows the differences in the cumulative amount of chlorine increase
estimated for 1985 to 2100, relative to a timing of 1998. As shown, moving
the phaseout up to 1990 reduces the cumulative contribution by over 11.5 ppbv.
Delaying the phaseout to 2008 increases the cumulative contribution by over
about 12.5 ppbv. Over this range the chlorine response is approximately
linear to changes in the timing of the phaseout.

Of note is that the general magnitude of the effect of timing on the
cumulative chlorine contribution is not overly sensitive to assumptions about
CH3CC13 growth or participation. Increasing participation tends to increase
the importance of the timing of the phaseout
6. SUMMARY

Very large increases in Clx and halon abundances would have been
expected if the use and emissions of chlorine-containing compounds and halons
had been allowed to increase without limit. The provisions of the Montreal
Protocol will reduce the amount of the increase significantly, but will not
keep the levels of Clx and halons in the stratosphere from increasing.
Significant additional reductions in emissions are required to keep the levels
from increasing, possibly including a complete phaseout of the fully-
halogenated compounds and a freeze on methyl chloroform. The rate of
substitution with partially-halogenated chlorine-containing compounds will
also influence future chlorine levels. If substitution is limited to key

uses, and if emissions are contained, the impact of these substitutes on


A-4
adjusted for the number of bromine and/or chlorine atoms, or their relative
efficiencies at perturbing stratospheric ozone. Also, the contributions of
historical halon emissions to future changes in abundances from 1985 are

assumed to be zero.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-67

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC(3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1990)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 _H-1211 = 130
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
148.3 212.8 122.2 17.3 5.1 5.5 21.4 641.3 3.3 3.8
154.2 128.1 165.4 24.7 3.0 3.8 26.1 660.9 6.2 5.0
79.1 75.1 206.1 -0 6 2.9 -0 664.0 9.9 5.8
81.1 71.4 265.4 -0 .0 1.9 :0 664.0 16.8 6.9
18.5 21.3 280.3 -0 -0 4 +0 664.0 19.7 8.4
15.3 18.3 317.8 -0 -0 22 -0 664.0 26.2 9.9
a) -0 359.7 .0 -0 -0 +0 664.0 29.0 11.3
-0 -0 407.0 +0 0 .0 -0 664.0 33.6 13.1
a) +0 460.4 -0 -0 -0 -0 664.0 38.9 15.1
-0 -0 520.9 .0 -0 .0 -0 664.0 45.0 17.3
-0 10 589.4 -0 -0 -0 -0 664.0 52.0 20.1
-0 :0 666.9 -0 -0 -0 -0 664.0 60.2 23.4
20 <0 754.5 .0 .0 -0 -0 664.0 69.6 27.4
-0 <0 815.1 +0 -0 -0 +0 664.0 78.7 30.5
-0 -0 852.2 .0 .0 0 20 664.0 86.7 33.1
.0 <0 875.5 -0 -0 -0 -0 664.0 93.9 35.3
-0 20 879.1 -0 -0 .0 -0 664.0 99.4 37.3
.0 -0 879.1 -0 -0 -0 -0 664.0 100.2 38.8
-0 -0 879.1 -0 -0 -0 -0 664.0 100.8 39.6
.0 -0 879.1 .0 -0 20 <0 664.0 100.8 40.3
.0 20 879.1 -0 -0 -0 -0 664.0 100.8 40.5
0 <0 879.1 -0 -0 -0 +0 664.0 100.8 40.5
.0 20 879.1 -0 -0 -0 +0 664.0 100.8 40.5


PARTS PER BILLION

-61-
EXHIBIT 33
SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR ALTERNATIVE

PHASE-OUT TIMING ASSUMPTIONS:
1990; 1993; 1996; 1998; 2003; AND 2008

2.5 4

1.0 —
1985

Assumptions:

°
°
°

°

sas OO SO a eT
2005 2025 2045 2065 2085 2105 2125 2145 2165

100% reduction in CFCs.
100% global participation.
CH3CC13 freeze in 1989 at 1986 levels.

Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


-20-
flattens out in response to the Protocol requirements. Despite these

characteristics, the Protocol requirements do not reduce the abundance of
Halon 1211 to its 1985 levels over the next 50 years.
4. REDUCTION SCENARIOS TO STABILIZE Clx AND HALON LEVELS

4.1 Identification of Necessary Reductions

Scenarios more stringent than the Protocol would be needed to stabilize

Clx and halon abundances at 1985 levels. Several scenarios were examined to

evaluate what controls would be needed. First, the Protocol reduction of 50

percent (a freeze for halons) was replaced with a reduction of 90 percent, and
the timing of the reduction was moved from 1998 (1992 for halons) to 1990. As
shown in Exhibit 19, under the standard Protocol participation assumptions,
this scenario results in over a 4 ppbv increase in Clx by 2100. If the global
participation in the reduction is increased to 100 percent, the Clx increment
is held to about 2 ppbv by 2100, and is no longer increasing at that time. If
the reduction was increased to 100 percent (i.e., full phase out of the fully-
halogenated CFCs by 1990) with 100 percent participation, the increment in the
Clx level would be limited to about 1.5 ppbv and would be declining by 2100.
As shown in Exhibit 20, CH3CC13 is the primary compound contributing to the
increases in the Clx levels relative to the 1985 value in this 100 percent

Reduction scenario. 23

23 also shown in Exhibit 20 are negative contributions to Clx increases
from several compounds. The negative values indicate that although overall
Clx levels increased relative to 1985 values, the Clx associated with those
compounds decreased. For example, in Exhibit 20 the contribution from CC14 is
shown as negative. This occurs because the simulated emissions are less than
the level necessary to keep the CC14 contribution to Clx constant at its 1985
level, and the change in Clx associated with CC14 is consequently negative,
This negative change for Clx (associated with CC14) divided by the positive
overall change in Clx across all the compounds results in a negative
contribution for CC14 being reported in the exhibit.


-35-
EXHIBIT 7

RELATIVE GREENHOUSE IMPACTS OVER TIME FROM EACH COMPOUND FOR
HYPOTHETICAL ONE-YEAR EMISSIONS OF 300 MILLION KILOGRAMS

(Values are relative to CFC-11 which is set to 1.0)

4
i ti CFC-115
Direct Radiative |
Forcing Relative
to CFC-11
3 oF CFC-12
HALON 1301
2b
CFC-114
CFC113
re CFC-11
CCi4
L
CH3CCI3 HCFC-22
0 1 r 1 1 A r z

1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120

Relative greenhouse impacts are computed based on the "direct radiative
forcing” provided by the compounds. This value is a function of the extent to
which the compounds absorb certain wavelengths of light and the atmospheric
abundances of the compounds. The absorption characteristics are based on
analysis in EPA (1987) for CFC-11, CFC-12, HCFC-22, CH3CC13, CC14 and Halon
1301. Estimates for CFCs 113, 114, and 115 are based on the assumption that
the parameters are the average of the values for CFC-11 and CFC-12.


c-5
EXHIBIT C-2

SIMULATED GLOBAL AVERAGE TOTAL COLUMN OZONE DEPLETION:
PROTOCOL SCENARIO WITH ALTERNATIVE TRACE GAS ASSUMPTIONS

oo
10-4
Protocol: Baseline Case
= 204
f
a -30 4 Protocol: Low Trace Gas
&
2
g
& 404
6 ,
504 Protocol: 2 C Warming Limit
60-4
70 T T T T T
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085
Assumptions:

Protocol:

U.S. participation; 94 percent participation in other developed
nations; 65 percent participation in developing nations. Use of
compounds not covered by the Protocol grows at the rates in the No
Controls scenario. Growth rates among non-participants are reduced
to 37.5 percent (developed nations) and 50 percent (developing
nations) of their baseline values. Compound use assumed constant
after 2050.

Other Trace Gases:

°

Base Scenario: CH4 grows at 0.017 ppm/year; N20 grows at 0.2
percent/year; C02 grows at the 50th percentile rate reported by the
NAS (about 0.6 percent/year).

Low Scenario: CH4 grows at 0.01275 ppm/year (75 percent of the
base scenario value); N20 grows at 0.15 percent/year; CO2 grows at
the 25th percentile rate reported by NAS (about 0.4 percent/year).

2°C Warming Limited: Assuming a 3°C climate sensitivity to doubled
C02, trace gas growth is limited so that projected equilibrium
warming equals 2°C by 2075. Average rates of growth from 1985 to
2075 are: CH4: 0.24 percent/year; N20: 0.06 percent/year; C02:
0.15 percent/year.

Arrows indicate that ozone depletion estimates may be underestimated.


PARTS PER BILLION

-55-

EXHIBIT 27

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR ALTERNATIVE
STRINGENCY LEVELS:
90% REDUCTION; 95% REDUCTION; 97% REDUCTION; 100% REDUCTION

Assumption:
oO

°

Reductions simulated in place of the 50% Protocol Reduction,

U.S. participation; 94% participation among other developed
nations; 65% participation among developing nations.

Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.

90%

95%
97%

100%


-23-

replacement compounds. 25

Of note is that even this conservative rate of
substitution (1:5) allows for significant increases in the use of HCFC-22-like
compounds in the future. The 1:5 substitution assumption allows for nearly
4.0 percent annual growth of these compounds through 2100, or nearly and 80-
fold increase over current levels.

4.3 Potential Future Halon Levels

Similarly large reductions in use are required to stabilize halon
abundances. Exhibit 25 displays estimates of Halon 1301 for 90 percent and
100 percent reductions. Even with 100 percent reduction in use by 1990,
levels are simulated to remain above current values through 2100. Of note,
however, is that this analysis does not assume significant recovery of Halon
1301 in existing systems. If these amounts were substantially recovered (and
not emitted) Halon 1301 levels could decline.

Exhibit 26 displays similar estimates for Halon 1211. Because Halon
1211 has a relatively short atmospheric lifetime, its atmospheric levels
respond quickly to reduced emissions. As in the analysis of Halon 1301,
increased recovery activity is not presumed.
5. IMPLICATIONS OF A VIRTUAL PHASEOUT OF CFCs FOR CHLORINE LEVELS

The previous sections have examined the potential future levels of
stratospheric chlorine that may be associated with the Montreal Protocol and
the emissions reductions required in 1990 in order to stabilize chlorine
levels at current values. This section assesses the implications of virtual
phaseouts of CFC compounds that could be achieved within the Protocol
framework and time frame. Unlike the previous section which evaluated large

reductions starting in 1990, this section builds upon the current Protocol

25 The conservative use of the substitutes could be achieved by:
agreements to limit use; the use of efficacious containment technologies;
and/or the use of non-chlorine-containing compounds and technologies as substitutes


B-71

EXHIBIT B-65

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2.5 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 suBsT *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 32.3
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 = 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 128.8
2000 191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8 356.8
2005 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 484.

2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.0 664.0 19.7 8.4 644.4
2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 664.0 24.2 9.9 774.3
2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 664.0 29.0 11.3 907.

2025 9.5 3.3 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 33.6 13.1 1036.5
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 38.9 15.1 1178.4
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 45.0 17.3, 1333.3
2040 0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 52.0 20.1 1508.5
2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 60.2 23.4 1706.8
2050 0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 69.6 27.4 1931.0
2055 0.0 0.0 853.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 80.2 31.7 2184.8
2060 0.0 0.0 965.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 92.0 36.4 2471.9
2065 0.0 0.0 1092.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 105.2 41.7 2796.7
2070 0.0 0.0 1236.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 119.9 47.6 3164.2
2075 0.0 0.0 1398.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 135.7 54.1 3580.0
2080 0.0 0.0 1582.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 153.6 61.4 4050.4
2085 0.0 0.0 1790.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 173.8 69.7 4582.8
2090 0.0 0.0 2025.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 196.7 78.9 5185.0
2095 0.0 0.0 2292.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 222.5 89.2 5866.3
2100 0.0 0.0 2593.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 251.8 101.0 6637.2

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

Protocol:

B-17

EXHIBIT B-11

Participation Scenario F

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CClL4 = CH3CCL3. H-4211 H-130
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
369.6 445.2 122.2 205.8 15.9 6.9 106.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
379.5 449.2 165.4 196.8 14.5 7.4 99.8 866.4 5.7 4G
359.5 431.8 206.1 164.2 11.8 7.3 83.8 992.9 8.5 4.9
373.5 437.0 245.4 163.5 11.1 6.8 82.1 1123.4 12.1 5.4
359.2 421.6 280.3 161.0 10.8 6.2 78.8 1271.0 15.3 6.2
354.1 417.6 317.8 164.4 10.9 5.8 80.8 1438.1 16.2 6.6
348.8 421.4 359.7 167.9 11.2 5.8 82.8 1627.0 17.7 6.7
355.4 428.2 407.0 171.6 11.4 5.8 85.0 1840.9 18.0 7.0
362.8 438.7 460.4 175.5 11.7 6.0 87.3 2082.8 18.6 7.0
373.0 450.6 520.9 179.5 11.9 6.1 89.7 2356.5 19.2 7.0
383.8 463.1 589.4 183.9 12.2 6.2 92.3 2666.1 19.8 7.2
395.2 476.4 666.9 188.4 12.5 6.3 95.0 3016.5 20.5 7.5
407.2 490.4 754.5 193.1 12.9 6.5 97.9 3412.9 21.3 7.8
410.3 494.8 815.1 193.1 12.9 6.6 97.9 3412.9 22.0 8.0
412.7 497.5 852.2 193.1 12.9 6.6 97.9 3412.9 22.6 8.2
44S 499.7 875.5 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.1 8.4
415.7 500.4 879.1 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.5 8.5
415.7 500.4 879.1 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.5 8.6
415.7 500.4 879.1 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.6 8.6
415.7 500.4 879.1 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.6 8.7
415.7 500.4 879.1 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.6 8.7
415.7 500.4 879.1 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.6 8.7
415.7 500.4 879.1 193.1 12.9 6.7 97.9 3412.9 23.6 8.7


PARTS PER BILLION

-42-
EXHIBIT 14

SIMULATED INCREASES IN C1x
FOR ALTERNATIVE PROTOCOL PARTICIPATION ASSUMPTIONS

120 -

11.0

1

10.0

1

9.0 4
8.0

10 4
6.0 4
5.0 4

40 4

|: 66% Participation

H
F
E
A: Standard Protocol
B
Cc
D

: 100% Participation

D': 100% Participation
and CH3CCI3 Freeze

0.0 T T T T t
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Participation Scenario Definitions:

Steady State

Scenario Developed Nations Developing Nations Clx Increase#
A 94% 65% Standard Assumption 10.2

B 100% 65% Higher Assumption 9.4

c 100% 85% - Higher Assumption 8.2

D and D’ 100% 1008 Higher Assumption? 7.4 and 5.1
E 94% 40% Lower Assumption 11.6

FE 75% 65% Lower Assumption 12.8

G 60% 65% - Lower Assumption 14.8

H 75% 40% - Lower Assumption 14.2

I 66% 66% - Lower ‘Assumption 16.4

a Increase over current level of about 2.7 ppbv.

b D' includes a freeze on CH3CC13.


EXHIBIT B-6
Protocol: Participation Scenario B
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl4 = CH3CCL3 «= H- 1211 HH 130

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 353.1 423.3 165.4 180.7 13.7 7.2 92.1 866.4 5.6 4.3
2000 309.5 380.5 206.1 133.2 10.3 6.9 69.7 992.9 8.2 4.7
2005 «=—316.6 375.8 245.4 130.2 9.4 6.3 67.0 1123.4 11.6 5.3
2010 294.4 350.9 280.3 125.5 8.9 5.5 62.6 1271.0 14.5 5.9
2015 281.0 337.6 317.8 126.4 8.9 5.0 63.5 1438.1 14.8 6.3
2020 268.1 335.1 359.7 127.4 9.0 49 64.4 1627.0 16.0 6.3
2025 269.3 336.2 407.0 128.4 9.2 49 65.4 1840.9 16.0 6.5
2030 271.1 340.6 460.4 129.6 9.3 4.9 66.4 2082.8 16.3 6.4
2035 9 275.5 346.2 520.9 130.7 9.4 5.0 67.5 2356.5 16.6 6.3
2040 280.1 352.1 589.4 132.0 9.5 5.1 68.7 2666.1 16.9 6.4
2045 = 285.0 358.4 666.9 133.3 9.7 5.1 69.9 3016.5 17.2 6.6
2050 = 290.3, 365.1 754.5 134.8 9.8 5.2 71.2 3412.9 17.6 6.8
2055 291.6 367.2 815.1 134.8 9.8 5.2 71.2 3412.9 18.0 6.9
2060 292.6 368.5 852.2 134.8 9.8 5.2 71.2 © 3412.9 18.3 7.0
2065 293.4 369.5 875.5 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 3412.9 18.5 7.1
2070 =293.9 369.9 879.1 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 3412.9 18.7 7.2
2075 293.9 369.9 879.1 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 3412.9 18.7 7.2
2080 = 293.9 369.9 879.1 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 3412.9 18.8 7.3
2085 «293.9 369.9 879.1 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 3412.9 18.8 7.3
2090 = 293.9 369.9 879.1 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 © 3412.9 18.8 7.3
2095 = 293.9 369.9 879.1 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 3412.9 18.8 7.3

2100 = 293.9 369.9 879.1 134.8 9.8 5.3 71.2 0 3412.9 18.8 7.3


PARTS PER BILLION

-60-
EXHIBIT 32

SIMULATED INCREASE IN Clx: THE TRADEOFF BETWEEN
PHASEOUT STRINGENCY AND PARTIALLY-HALOGENATED COMPOUND SUBSTITUTION

3.0
28 4
2.6 -]
24 -
224
2.0 4

184

90% Reduction with

16 4 1:5 Substitution

14 4
124
10 4
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2

100% Reduction with
1:3 Substitution

100% Reduction with
1:2.5 Substitution

0.0

1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

A 90% reduction with 100% participation, CH3CC13 freeze, Post-2050 growth, and
1:5 substitution yields approximately the same chlorine increases as a 100%
reduction with 1:3 or 1:2.5 substitution.

.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

Protocol:

B-13

EXHIBIT B-7

Participation Scenario C

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

Crc-114 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4 = cH3cClL3) =H 1211 H- 130.
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
352.3 422.3 165.4 180.4 13.7 7.2 91.8 866.4 5.6 4.3
305.3 375.3 206.1 131.6 10.1 6.9 68.3 992.9 8.2 4.7
307.5 364.4 245.4 127.1 9.1 6.2 64.1 1123.4 11.5 5.2
278.3 330.9 280.3 120.1 8.4 5.4 57.7 1271.0 14.4 5.8
262.2 313.0 317.8 120.5 8.3 4.7 58.0 1438.1 14.6 6.2
246.4 306.7 359.7 121.0 8.4 4.7 58.4 1627.0 15.7 6.2
244.7 303.8 407.0 121.4 8.4 4.6 58.8 1840.9 15.5 6.4
243.4 304.9 460.4 121.9 8.5 4.6 59.3 2082.8 15.6 6.2
245.2 307.3 520.9 122.4 8.5 4.6 59.7 2356.5 15.7 6.1
247.2 309.9 589.4 122.9 8.6 4.7 60.2 2666.1 15.8 6.1
249.3 312.6 666.9 123.5 8.6 4.7 60.8 3016.5 15.9 6.2
251.6 315.4 754.5 124.1 8.7 4.7 61.3 3412.9 16.1 6.3
252.2 316.3 815.1 1246.1 8.7 4.7 61.3 3412.9 16.2 6.4
252.6 316.9 852.2 1246.1 8.7 4.7 61.3 3412.9 16.3 6.5
253.0 317.3 875.5 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.4 6.5
253.2 317.5 879.1 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.5 6.6
253.2 317.5 879.1 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.5 6.6
253.2 317.5 879.1 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.5 6.6
253.2 317.5 879.1 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.5 6.6
253.2 317.5 879.1 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.5 6.6
253.2 317.5 879.1 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.5 6.6
253.2 317.5 879.1 124.1 8.7 4.8 61.3 3412.9 16.5 6.6


CFC-11

CFC-12

EXHIBIT B-42

95 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115

363.8
439.4
421.5
258.5
199.6
111.8
62.4
44.5
31.0
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8
27.8

73.8
122.2
165.4
206.1
245.4
280.3
317.8
359.7
407.0
460.4
520.9
589.4
666.9
754.5
815.1
852.2
875.5
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1
879.1

180.2
38.9
33.2
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6
11.6

cct4 = cH3cCl3 =H-1211 = H#- 1301

4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
6.9 104.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
7.2 91.6 866.4 6.2 5.0
5.7 30.7 992.9 9.9 5.8
4.1 25.3 1123.4 14.8 6.9
2.5 5.4 1271.0 19.7 8.4
9 5.4 1438.1 24.2 9.9
7 5.4 1627.0 29.0 11.3
4 5.4 1840.9 33.6 13.1
4 5.4 2082.8 38.9 15.1
4 5.4 2356.5 45.0 17.3
A 5.4 2666.1 52.0 20.1
4 5.4 3016.5 60.2 23.4
4 5.4 3412.9 69.6 27.4
A 5.4 3412.9 78.7 30.5
4 5.4 3412.9 86.7 33.1
4 5.4 3412.9 93.9 35.3
4 5.4 3412.9 99.4 37.3
4 5.4 3412.9 100.2 38.8
4 5.4 3412.9 100.8 39.6
4 5.4 3412.9 100.8 40.3
4 5.4 3412.9 100.8 40.5
4 5.4 3412.9 100.8 40.5
4 5.4 3412.9 100.8 40.5


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035,
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-45

B-51

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CClL4 CH3CCL3 H-12114 H- 1301
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
213.3 271.0 206.1 49.7 5.7 5.9 34.7 664.0 9.9 5.8
201.1 216.9 245.4 43.3 3.8 44 29.4 664.0 14.8 6.9
126.5 134.5 280.3 23.2 1.9 2.8 10.8 664.0 19.7 8.4

98.0 88.2 317.8 23.2 1.6 1. 10.8 664.0 24.2 9.9
58.9 71.3 359.7 23.2 1.6 1.1 10.8 664.0 29.0 11.3
52.9 58.6 407.0 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 33.6 13.1
44.5 55.6 460.4 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 38.9 15.

44.5 55.6 520.9 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 45.0 17.3
44.5 55.6 589.4 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 52.0 20.

44.5 55.6 666.9 23.2 1.6 G 10.8 664.0 60.2 23.4
44.5 55.6 754.5 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 69.6 27.4
44.5 55.6 815.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 78.7 30.5
44.5 55.6 852.2 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 86.7 33.

44.5 55.6 875.5 23.2 1.6 Go 10.8 664.0 93.9 35.3
44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 99.4 37.3
44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 100.2 38.8
44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 oD 10.8 664.0 100.8 39.6
44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.3
44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 go 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5
44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9D 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5
44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5


-29-

EXHIBIT 1

CONCEP (UAL DIAGRAM OF THE CONCENTRATION MODEL

Released Atomic Chlorine

Stratospheric Concentrations of the Molecules

Stratosphere

wan | ML. _____Troposphere-Stratosphere Exchange
Tropopause (rrr -
e ° e
ee

.
e 0° ee ° Tropospheric Concentrations of the Molecules

q Alternative Emissions Scenarios

Troposphere

Earth's Surface

The concentrations model is based on results from a one-dimensional model of
the atmosphere. As a one-dimensional analysis, the analysis reflects vertical
transport only; latitudinal and longitudinal dependent effects are not
considered.

The analysis begins with alternative emissions scenarios based on a variety of
assumptions. The emissions are translated into tropospheric concentrations of
the compounds. The tropospheric concentrations in any year are a function of
additions (due to emissions) and losses (due to transport to the
stratosphere). The transport to the stratosphere is modeled using an
exponential time constant of 3.5 years. This implies that 3.5 years after an
emission takes place, about 63 percent of it has reached the stratosphere.

In the stratosphere the molecules are broken down by solar radiation and
release chlorine. The stratospheric concentrations of the molecules are
adjusted for the relative amounts of ozone-depleting chlorine atoms supplied
to the stratosphere.


C-4
EXHIBIT C-1

SIMULATED GLOBAL AVERAGE TOTAL COLUMN OZONE DEPLETION:
NO CONTROLS; PROTOCOL; AND TRUE GLOBAL FREEZE

True Global Freeze

i)
9% —_——— = a 3
TV VD pave Y
“10.0 4
&
g -200 4
a
a
i No Controls
a 300+
8g
6
-40.0 4
500 T T T T T
1985, 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085
Assumptions:
No Controls: Compound use grows at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent
from 1985 to 2050, with no growth thereafter.
Protocol: U.S. participation; 94 percent participation in other developed

nations; 65 percent participation in developing nations. Use
of compounds not covered by the Protocol grows at the rates in
the No Controls scenario. Growth rates among non-participants
are reduced to 37.5 percent (developed nations) and 50 percent
(developing nations) of their baseline values.

True Global Freeze: The use of all chlorine-containing compounds is frozen at
1986 levels starting in 1990, and 100 percent participation is

achieved worldwide.
Other Trace Gases: CH4 grows at 0.017 ppm/year; N20 grows at 0.2
percent/year; CO2 grows at the 50th percentile rate reported by
the NAS (about 0.6 percent/year).

Arrows indicate that ozone depletion estimates may be underestimated.


2. METHODS

Future chlorine (Clx) and bromine concentrations depend primarily on
future CFC and halon emissions and their atmospheric fate.“ Scenarios of
emissions are analyzed based on estimates of current and projected future use
of chlorine and bromine containing compounds under various assumptions.
Compounds examined include CFCs (CFC-11, 12, 22, 113, 114, and 115), methyl
chloroform (CH3CC13), carbon tetrachloride (CC14), and halons (Halon 1211 and
Halon 1301).5 A parameterized model (presented in Appendix A) is used to
estimate chlorine and bromine concentrations for this wide range of emissions
scenarios. While not considering all the factors that influence Clx and halon
levels (e.g., the impact of ozone depletion on atmospheric lifetimes is
omitted), the model provides a useful first order approximation (UNEP 1987).
Exhibit 1 shows a conceptual diagram of the model (interested readers should
consult the appendix for details).

2.1 Emissions Scenarios

In this analysis, the middle scenario of CFC and halon use and
emissions reported in EPA (1988) is used as a baseline "No Controls" scenario.
This scenario is based on updated 1986 and 1987 data. Appendix B shows the
global emissions in this scenario and the other scenarios analyzed. The

following factors are varied in the scenarios: rate of participation in the

4 tt is assumed in this analysis that natural sources of chlorine and
bromine remain unchanged. The contribution from natural sources
is therefore ignored in computing changes in Clx and bromine from current levels

5 Halon 1211 includes not only chlorine but bromine as well; Halon 1301
includes bromine (but no chlorine) Bromine is believed to pose risks to
stratospheric ozone (WMO 1986). Halon 2402, which is included in the
Protocol, is not assessed due to lack of data. The contribution of compounds
like HCFC-141b are included later in the analyses by assuming that such
partially-halogenated chlorine-containing compounds have the atmospheric
characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-66

EXHIBIT B-60

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:2 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985, 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.1
2000 191.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8 446.1

2005 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 605.1
2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.0 664.0 19.7 8.4 805.5
2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 664.0 24.2 9.9 967.9

2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 664.0 29.0 11.3 1133.9
2025 9.5 3.3 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 33.6 13.1 1295.6
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 38.9 15.1 1473.1
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 45.0 17.3 1666.7
2040 0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 52.0 20.1 1885.6
2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 60.2 23.4 2133.5
2050 0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0- 664.0 69.6 27.4 2413.8
2055 0.0 0.0 853.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 80.2 31.7 2731.0
2060 0.0 0.0 965.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 92.0 36.4 3089.9
2065 0.0 0.0 1092.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 105.2 41.7 3495.9
2070 0.0 0.0 1236.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 119.9 47.6 3955.3
2075 0.0 0.0 1398.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 135.7 54.1 4475.1
2080 0.0 0.0 1582.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 153.6 61.4 5063.1
2085 0.0 0.0 1790.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 173.8 69.7 5728.5
2090 0.0 0.0 2025.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 196.7 78.9 6481.2
2095 0.0 0.0 2292.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 222.5 89.2 7332.9
2100 0.0 0.0 2593.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 251.8 101.0 8296.5

* Ppartially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-74

EXHIBIT B-68
100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1993)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cct4 CH3ccL3 = H-1211 H- 1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
1995 171.8 218.5 165.4 24.7 5.0 5.2 26.1 660.9 6.2 5.0
2000 169.4 167.9 206.1 28.7 3.1 4.0 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8
2005 95.5 97.2 245.4 0 5 2.6 0 664.0 14.8 6.9
2010 70.6 38.7 280.3 0 0 5 te) 664.0 19.7 8.4
2015 17.8 21.0 317.8 0 -0 3 -0 664.0 24.2 9.9
2020 11.9 4.2 359.7 0 -0 0 0 664.0 29.0 11.3
2025 0 -0 407.0 0 0 .0 td) 664.0 33.6 13.1
2030 0 -0 460.4 0 0 0 -0 664.0 38.9 15.1
2035 -0 0 520.9 0 0 .0 -0 664.0 45.0 17.3
2040 0 0 589.4 0 0 -0 -0 664.0 52.0 20.1
2045 0 0 666.9 0 0 0 0 664.0 60.2 23.4
2050 -0 -0 754.5 0 0 -0 -0 664.0 69.6 27.4
2055 0 0 815.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 78.7 30.5
2060 to) 0 852.2 0 .0 .0 .0 664.0 86.7 33.1
2065 +0 0 875.5 0 0 -0 .0 664.0 93.9 35.3
2070 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 -0 664.0 99.4 37.3
2075 0 0 879.1 0 a) 0 0 664.0 100.2 38.8
2080 0 -0 879.1 0 .0 0 .0 664.0 100.8 39.6
2085 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.3
2090 0 0 879.1 .0 .0 0 0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2095 0 0 879.1 .0 0 .0 -0 664.0 100.8 40.5
2100 0 0 879.1 0 0 0 -0 664.0 100.8 40.5


APPENDIX C

OZONE DEPLETION ESTIMATES


-44-

EXHIBIT 16

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx: ALTERNATIVE SUBSTITUTION ASSUMPTIONS

PARTS PER BILLION

Ho

10.0 4

9.0

8.0

70

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

10

0.0

1

4

11
4

1:2

15
1:10
Protocol

1985

T T T T
2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Scenario Definitions:

°

1:1 -- Add one kilogram of the substitute for each
kilogram of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced;

1:2 -- Add one kilogram of the substitute for each two
kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced;

1:5 -- Add one kilogram of the substitute for each five
kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced;

1:10 -- Add one kilogram of the substitute for each 10
kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced; and

1:1* -- Add one kilogram of the substitute for each
kilogram of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-114 and CFC-115
reduced.

It is assumed that the substitute has the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-
22, or about 1/20 the ozone-depleting potential of CFC-11. Baseline compound
use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


-6-
sufficient for stabilizing total chlorine levels if the production and use of
non-regulated chlorine-contributing compounds are considered.

One other caveat is needed with regard to stabilization. As suggested
by the Summary of the Ozone Trends Panel Report, if the ozone layer has
already begun to deplete at current atmospheric levels of chlorine and
bromine, stabilizing the contribution of chlorine or bromine from various
chemicals would not reverse past depletion. Furthermore, to the extent that
global ozone depletion is occurring due to dilution from the Antarctic ozone
hole, stabilizing chlorine at current levels would not completely prevent the
occurrence of future depletion associated with continued dilution from the
existing hole. At this time, only preliminary estimates have been made of the
ultimate dilution that will be associated with the current hole. There may be
some additional hemispheric or global depletion still to come from the current
hole. Therefore, the global ozone layer may already be committed to a
residual amount of depletion at current levels of chlorine and bromine which
has not yet had time to occur.

1.2 Report Organization

Section 2 of this analysis discusses the methods used to estimate
chlorine and bromine levels. Section 3 focuses on assessing the chlorine and
bromine levels associated with the Montreal Protocol and their dependency on
various assumptions about participation, substitution, and emissions after
2050. This section also addresses the question of the effect of widespread
substitution of HCFC-22 or other partially-halogenated compounds. Section 4
focuses on determining the level of controls that would be necessary to
stabilize the abundance of chlorine and bromine. Section 5 examines the

effects on chlorine of different reduction stringencies and timings.


-38-
EXHIBIT 10

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMPOUNDS TO
INCREASES IN Clx: PROTOCOL SCENARIO

PERCENT OF Clx
120

[__] cxaccis L
Begg ccis 100 f—
(J cre-115 gg [LL

CFC-114
60 |

E22 crc-113 L
Hcrc-22 40 f—
CFC12 20 [|-

MM crc 0

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Change in

; 68 76
Clx (ppb): 32 5.2

Steady State Increase in Clx (ppbv): 10.2

Assumptions:

Protocol: U.S. participation; 94 percent participation in other
developed nations; 65 percent participation in developing
nations. Use of compounds not covered by the Protocol grows
at the rates in the No Controls scenario. Growth rates among
non-participants are reduced. Baseline compound use is
assumed to be constant after 2050.


B-47

EXHIBIT B-41

90 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 Ccl4 CH3CCL3 =H 1211 H- 1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 362.6 © 439.4 = 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995, 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 866.4 6.2 5.0
2000 213.3 271.0 © 206.1 49.4 5.7 5.9 34.7 992.9 9.9 5.8
2005 201.1 216.9 245.4 43.3 3.8 4.4 29.4 1123.4 14.8 6.9
2010 126.5 134.5 280.3 23.2 1.9 2.8 10.8 1271.0 19.7 8.4
2015 98.0 88.2 317.8 23.2 1.6 1.3 10.8 1438.1 24.2 9.9
2020 58.9 71.3 359.7 23.2 1.6 11 10.8 1627.0 29.0 11.3
2025 52.9 58.6 407.0 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 1840.9 33.6 13.1
2030 44.5 55.6 460.4 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 2082.8 38.9 15.4
2035 44.5 55.6 520.9 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 2356.5 45.0 17.3
2040 44.5 55.6 589.4 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 2666.1 52.0 20.1
2045 44.5 55.6 666.9 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3016.5 60.2 23.4
2050 44.5 55.6 754.5 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 69.6 27.4
2055 44.5 55.6 815.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 78.7 30.5
2060 44.5 55.6 852.2 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 86.7 33.1
2065 44.5 55.6 875.5 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 93.9 35.3
2070 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 o 10.8 3412.9 99.4 37.3
2075 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 100.2 38.8
2080 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 100.8 39.6
2085 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 o 10.8 3412.9 100.8 40.3
2090 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2095 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2100 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 9 10.8 3412.9 100.8 40.5


-19-
concentrations are higher due to the compound’s longer atmospheric lifetime.
The potential role of halons in ozone depletion remains somewhat uncertain.
Based on analyses by Connell (1986) with a 1-D model, the following general
rules of thumb describe the ozone-depleting potential of the compounds:

o based on atmospheric concentrations, 20 pptv of Halon 1211 is as

effective at depleting stratospheric ozone as is 40 pptv of Halon-
1301;21 and
° at moderate levels of Clx abundance (e.g., on the order of 10
ppbv), 20 pptv of Halon 1211 is about as effective as 1 ppbv of Clx
at depleting stratospheric ozone.
Based on these rough rules of thumb, the combined halon concentrations in 2100
in the No Controls scenario shown in Exhibit 18 may result in about the same
level of ozone depletion as 3 ppbv of Clx. This assessment is very rough, but
is provided to put the impact of halons on ozone into context.

Due to the long atmospheric lifetime of Halon 1301, the freeze in use
required under the Protocol is not sufficient to stabilize its atmospheric
concentration. The fact that Halon 1301 is simulated to be stored in fire
extinguishing systems which will result in emissions for many years also
contributes to the continued increase in atmospheric concentrations shown in
Exhibit 18.

Exhibit 18 also shows estimates for Halon 1211. Because Halon 1211 has

a relatively short atmospheric lifetime, and because Halon 1211 fire

extinguishers are simulated to have shorter lives, the abundance of Halon 1211

21 Although on a concentration basis (i.e., in terms of ppbv) Halon 1211
is more potent than Halon 1301 at depleting ozone, on a mass basis (i.e., in
terms of millions of kilograms of emissions) the reverse is true. The
increased potency of Halon 1301 relative to Halon 1211 on a mass basis is due
to the compound's longer lifetime which results in substantially higher
concentrations for equivalent levels of emissions.

22 The relationship between Clx and ozone depletion varies depending on
the Clx abundance and the concentrations of other trace gases (C02, N20, and
CH4) .


14-

about 100 years under the True Global Freeze scenario, the Clx levels continue

to increase slowly. The compounds with the longest lifetimes (CFCs 11, 12,
113, 114, and 115; CC14) have yet to achieve a steady-state level by this
time, whereas the compounds with short lifetimes (HCFC-22, CH3CC13) have

achieved a steady-state level. Although an increase in Clx of about 6.7 ppbv
is achieved for this scenario by 2100, the eventual steady-state increase
(which will take hundreds of years to approach) is 9.9 ppbv, with CFC-11 and
CFC-12 accounting for about 7.9 ppbv of the increase, 15

Exhibits 9 to 12 show the simulated increases in Clx values over time,
the percent of the increase in Clx associated with each compound, and the
equilibrium increase in Clx over 1985 values associated with the final level
of emissions simulated. As shown in Exhibit 9, CFCs 11, 12 and 113 account
for most of the Clx increases over time in the No Controls scenario (over 70
percent). CH3CC13 is initially significant (see the year 2000), but declines
over time in relative importance while the importance of CC14 increases. The
other compounds (CFCs 114 and 115 and HCFC-22) have a negligible relative
contribution.

Exhibit 10 shows the contribution by compound for the Protocol
scenario. In this scenario the importance of the controlled compounds

decreases over time, while the relative importance of CH3CC13 increases

significantly, and the importance of HCFC-22 increases only slightly. 16

15 For readers familiar with ozone-depletion estimates from 1-D models
Appendix C shows several cases of projected depletion. These cases show
various emission scenarios for ozone-depleting compounds as well as scenarios
for methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide concentrations. These
projections of ozone depletion based on a 1-D model now appear to be
inconsistent with monitored changes in ozone, thereby calling into question
the adequacy of these models for projecting future changes in ozone.

16 Although CC14 is not controlled directly, CC14 emissions are assumed
to decline as the use of CFC-11 and CFC-12 declines because the primary source
of CC14 emissions is during the production of these CFCs.


3-

Under more realistic substitution assumptions of one-to-five for
foregone CFC-11 and CFC-12, chlorine levels would be increased
by about an additional 0.4 ppbv by 2100, an amount which is
about 10 percent of the increase associated with the continued
use of the fully-halogenated compounds covered under the
Protocol.

Bromine levels will grow under the Montreal Protocol.

°

Current abundances are on the order of 1 pptv for Halon 1211 and
Halon 1301.

By 2075 Halon 1211 is projected to grow to about 6 pptv, and
Halon 1301 is projected to grow to nearly 13 pptv.

Additional reductions of the fully-halogenated compounds would reduce
future chlorine and bromine levels substantially.

°

The reductions in chlorine levels will depend on the speed and
magnitude of the emissions reductions. The difference between
peak chlorine levels between a 100 percent phaseout by 1990 and
a 95 percent phaseout by 1998 (with 100 percent participation
and a freeze on methyl chloroform emissions) would be 0.8 ppbv.
The slower and less stringent phasedown would result in chlorine
levels in excess of the peak level from the faster, more
stringent phasedown for over 50 years.

To stabilize chlorine abundances at current levels would require
a 100 percent phaseout of the fully-halogenated compounds with
100 percent participation globally, at least a freeze on methyl
chloroform use, and substitution of partially-halogenated
compounds at relatively conservative rates. These relatively
conservative rates of substitution would nonetheless allow HCFC-
22-like compounds to grow at nearly 4.0 percent per year, to
nearly 80 times current HCFC-22 use levels by 2100. There would
be a trade off between the ability to use increasing amounts of
partially-halogenated substitutes and methyl chloroform.

To stabilize bromine levels requires about a 100 percent
phaseout of Halon 1301, and 90 to 100 percent phaseout of Halon
1211, with 100 percent participation.


B-59

EXHIBIT B-53
90 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3. 363.8 «= 73.8 «150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 106.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 213.3 271.0 206.1 49.1 5.7 5.9 34.7 664.0 9.9 5.8 169.0
2005 = 201.1 216.9 245.4 43.3 3.8 4.4 29.6 664.0 14.8 6.9 230.1
2010 126.5 134.5 280.3 23.2 1.9 2.8 10.8 664.0 19.7 8.4 306.1
2015 98.0 88.2 317.8 23.2 1.6 1.3 10.8 664.0 24.2 9.9 369.3
2020 58.9 71.3 359.7 23.2 1.6 1.1 10.8 664.0 29.0 11.3 434.3
2025 52.9 58.6 407.0 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 33.6 13.1 498.5
2030 44.5 95.6 460.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 38.9 15.1 569.2
2035 44.5 55.6 520.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 45.0 17.3 646.6
2040 44.5 55.6 589.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 52.0 20.1 734.2
2045 44.5 55.6 666.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 60.2 23.4 833.4
2050 44.5 95.6 754.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 69.6 27.4 945.5
2055 44.5 55.6 815.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 78.7 30.5 980.8
2060 44.5 55.6 852.2 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 86.7 33.1 1002.8
2065 44.5 55.6 875.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 93.9 35.3 1021.2
2070 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 99.4 = 37.3 1030.4
2075 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.2 = 38.8 1030.4
2080 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 39.6 1030.4
2085 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.3 1030.4
2090 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5 1030.4
2095 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 40.5 1030.4
2100 44.5 55.6 879.1 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 100.8 = 40.5 1030.4

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22,

B-37

EXHIBIT B-31

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 1:2 Substitution (1990)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3) = -H-1211 H-130
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.
116.9 186.4 = 122.2 13.6 4.2 5.5, 11.4 615.7 2.8 2.4
115.3 82.0 165.4 18.5 1.6 3.6 14.2 627.5 3.0 2.
123.4 112.2 206.1 23.8 1.9 2.8 16.9 639.4 3.8 2.0
136.1 141.3 245.4 25.1 2.0 2.4 17.9 645.8 5.6 2.0

76.1 92.1 280.3 26.5 2.2 0.9 18.9 652.8 2.5 2.3
81.6 99.4 317.8 28.0 2.3 1.0 20.0 660.5 3.0 4.5
86.9 105.7 359.7 29.6 2.4 1.0 21.2 668.9 2.7 1.5
92.0 112.0 407.0 31.3 2.6 1.1 22.5 678.0 3.0 1.6
97.4 118.7 460.4 33.1 2.7 1.1 23.8 687.9 3.2 0.9
103.2 125.8 520.9 34.9 2.9 1.2 25.2 698.8 3.4 0.9
109.3 133.3 589.4 36.9 3.0 1.3 26.7 710.6 3.6 1.0
115.8 141.3 666.9 39.0 3.2 1.4 28.3 723.5 3.9 1.1
122.7 149.7 754.5 41.3 3.4 1.4 30.0 737.6 4.2 1.2
124.46 152.4 815.1 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 737.6 4.4 1.2
125.8 154.0 852.2 41.3 3.4 1.5 30.0 737.6 4.6 1.3
126.8 155.4 875.5 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 4.8 1.3
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 4.9 1.4
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4
127.5 155.7 879.1 41.3 3.4 1.6 30.0 737.6 5.0 1.4

modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.

123,

SUBST *

0.0
289.8
449.0
546.8
645.6
811.7
925.9
1054.5
1200.0
1365.0
1552.2
1764.4
2004.9
2277.6
2363.7
2417.3
2462.0
2484.6
2484.6
2484.6
2484.6
2484.6
2484.6
2484.6

141b, 142b)


A-3

and a factor combining the column number density of the
atmosphere, the surface area of the earth, and Avogadro's
number (see Connell 1986, p.5). The values used to
compute the conversion factors are shown in Exhibit A-1.
As shown in the exhibit, the relative efficiencies for the
compounds vary from 0.288 for CFC-115 to 1.20 for CCl4.

° Mixing time: the time constant for mixing a surface-

released tracer completely in the atmosphere and
stratosphere is estimated at 3.5 years.

° Clx from Historical Emissions: the algorithm estimates
changes in Clx from levels in 1985. The contribution of

historical emissions to these changes was estimated by
Connell (1986) and is presented in Exhibit A-2. As shown
in the exhibit, the contribution is initially positive,
reflecting the mixing in of emissions prior to 1985. Over
the long term the contribution becomes negative,
reflecting the decay of the atmospheric abundance
associated with emissions prior to 1985.
Given these values, the contribution of each compound to changes in
Clx in year t relative to 1985 levels is computed as:
t
(te te rT.
Clx(t,j) — CF(j) * = emissions(j) * e (t-D)/LG) (ef iat )
ie1

where:

Clx(t,j) = the change in Clx in year t (relative to 1985) associated
with emissions of compound j;
CF(j) = conversion factor for compound j;
L(j) = atmospheric lifetime of compound i:
MT = mixing time.
To compute the total change in Clx in year t, the contributions from each of

the compounds is summed, and added to the change in Clx associated with pre-

1985 emissions.

This general method is also used for computing halon abundances.

However, the halon abundances are of the entire molecules, and are not


-24-
schedule of reductions. The implications of requiring deeper reductions in
1998 is examined, followed by an evaluation of the effects of speeding up or

delaying the required reductions.
5.1 Virtual Phaseouts in 1998

The following factors were varied in examining the implications of

virtual phaseouts:

° tringency of the aseout: 90 percent; 95 percent; 97 percent;
and 100 percent.

o Participation: standard participation assumptions2© and 100
percent global participation.

o Methyl chloroform growth: methyl chloroform use and emissions grow
in the future and methyl chloroform use is frozen at 1986 levels
either due to international agreement or due to a lack of demand.

o Substitution: ozone-depleting substitutes for foregone CFCs were
assumed to range from no substitutes to one kilogram for each two
kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 foregone.

° Long Term Growth. Compound use was assumed to have no growth
following 2050 and was assumed to have continued growth at 2.5
percent per year following 2050.

While varyirig these factors, the basic structure of the phased Protocol
reductions was maintained. The 50 percent reduction required in 1998 was
replaced with the more stringent reductions of 90, 95, 97, and 100 percent.
The special allowances for developing nations and nations with planned
expansions of production were also maintained.

Exhibit 27 displays the estimated chlorine values for the four

stringency levels assuming standard (i.e., less than 100 percent)
participation and growth in CH3CC13. As shown in the exhibit, even with these

stringent phaseouts, chlorine levels may increase on the order of 4 ppbv to 5

ppbv by 2100. Exhibit 28 shows that 100 percent participation in such

26 Standard participation assumptions are: U.S participation; 94
percent participation among other developed nations including the USSR and
East Bloc nations; and 65 percent participation among developing nations.


B-70

EXHIBIT B-64

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CC\3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3) = -H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0

1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995, 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 199.1 246.0 206.1 28.7 4.7 5.6 26.6 664.0 9.9 5.8 178.4
2005 176.2 182.2 245.4 23.0 2.5 3.9 21.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 242.0
2010 91.6 89.1 280.3 0.0 0.4 2.2 0.0 664.0 19.7 8.4 322.2
2015 60.4 36.6 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 664.0 24.2 9.9 387.

2020 16.0 17.8 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 664.0 29.0 11.3. 453.6
2025 9.5 3.3, 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 33.6 13.1 518.2
2030 0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 38.9 15.1 589.2
2035 0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 45.0 17.3 666.7
2040 0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 52.0 20.1 754.3
2045 0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 60.2 23.4 853.4
2050 0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 69.6 27.4 965.5
2055 0.0 0.0 853.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 80.2 31.7 1092.4
2060 0.0 0.0 965.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 92.0 36.4 1235.9
2065 0.0 0.0 1092.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 105.2 41.7 1398.4
2070 0.0 0.0 1236.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 119.9 47.6 1582.

2075 0.0 0.0 1398.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 135.7 54.1 1790.0
2080 0.0 0.0 1582.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 153.6 61.4 2025.2
2085 0.0 0.0 1790.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 173.8 69.7 2291.4
2090 0.0 0.0 2025.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 196.7 78.9 2592.5
2095 0.0 0.0 2292.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 222.5 89.2 2933.1
2100 0.0 0.0 2593.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 664.0 251.8 101.0 3318.6

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


10-
Protocol and contribute primarily bromine, halon abundances are reported
separately.

To assess the extent to which emissions result in increases in Clx
levels, the current Clx and halon levels associated with these compounds are
required.? As shown in Exhibit 3, the anthropogenic-related Clx levels
estimated with the model (totalling about 2.7 ppbv across the compounds
included in the model) are similar to those estimated by Connell and Wuebbles

(1986) and reported by WMO (1986) . 10 Also shown are halon levels.

Based on the estimated values of the compound lifetimes and conversion
factors, the level of emissions that would maintain the Clx and halon
abundances at their 1985 simulated values can be computed. At these estimated
levels of emissions, the decline in Clx and halon levels due to natural
atmospheric removal processes would be exactly balanced by additional
emissions. Exhibit 3 shows the levels of emissions that are consistent with
stabilizing the chlorine contribution from each compound. These emissions are
much smaller than the estimated 1985 levels of global emissions (also shown in
Exhibit 3), indicating that reductions in emissions are required in order to
stabilize the Clx and halon levels from individual compounds at their 1985
values. Total chlorine can also be stabilized by cutting back some compounds
more and others less than is shown in Exhibit 3; in fact, it would make little
sense to stabilize total chlorine by stabilizing each compound's individual
contribution. The estimates of changes in Clx and halon levels reported below

are computed using the 1985 values as base values.

9 The background level of Clx from other sources is assumed to remain
constant, and is consequently not considered in this analysis. The abundance
of halons comes solely from human sources, although there are other sources of
bromine in the atmosphere (see WMO 1986).

10 These estimates do not include the naturally occurring chlorine from
CH3C1.


B-68

EXHIBIT B-62

95 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 = 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 202.2 258.5 206.1 38.9 5.2 5.7 30.7 664.0 9.9 5.8 173.7
2005 188.7 199.6 245.4 33.2 3.2 4.1 25.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 236.1
2010 109.0 111.8 280.3 11.6 1.1 2.5 5.4 664.0 19.7 8.4 314.2
0.8
8

2015 79.2 62.4 317.8 11.6 - 0.9 5.4 664.0 24.2 9.9 378.2
2020 37.4 44.5 359.7 11.6 . 0.7 5.4 664.0 29.0 11.3 443.9
2025 31.2 31.0 407.0 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 33.6 13.1 508.4
2030 22.3 27.8 460.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 38.9 15.1 579.2
2035 22.3 27.8 520.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 45.0 17.3 656.6
2040 22.3 27.8 589.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 52.0 20.1 744.2
2045 22.3 27.8 666.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 60.2 23.4 843.4
2050 22.3 27.8 754.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 69.6 27.4 955.5
2055 22.3 27.8 853.6 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 80.2 31.7 1082.4
2060 22.3 27.8 965.8 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 92.0 36.4 1225.9
2065 22.3 27.8 1092.7 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 105.2 41.7 1388.3
2070 22.3 27.8 1236.3 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 119.9 47.6 1572.

2075 22.3 27.8 1398.8 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 135.7 54.1 1780.0
2080 22.3 27.8 1582.6 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 153.6 61.4 2015.2
2085 22.3 27.8 1790.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 173.8 69.7 2281.4
2090 22.3 27.8 2025.8 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 196.7 78.9 2582.5
2095 22.3 27.8 2292.0 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 222.5 89.2 2923.1
2100 22.3 27.8 2593.2 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 251.8 101.0 3308.6

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


EXHIBITS


B-25

EXHIBIT B-19
Protocol 1:1* Substitiution Scenario
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 suBsT *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8 118.9
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 5.6 4.4 435.6
2000 321.5 392.8 206.1 140.6 10.6 7.0 73.1 992.9 8.3 4.8 864.5
2005 330.3 390.4 245.4 138.2 9.8 6.4 70.6 1123.4 11.7 5.3 1155.4
2010 309.9 367.9 280.3 134.0 9.4 5.7 66.5 1271.0 14.7 6.0 1487.4

2015 298.5 356.8 317.8 135.5 9.4 5.2 67.6 1438.1 15.2 6.4 1818.8
2020 287.4 355.8 359.7 137.1 9.5 5.1 68.8 1627.0 16.4 6.4 2175.9
2025 290.0 358.3 407.0 138.8 9.7 5.1 70.1 1840.9 16.5 6.6 2559.3
2030 293.1 364.1 460.4 140.6 9.8 5.2 71.4 2082.8 16.9 6.6 2989.9
2035 298.9 371.2 520.9 142.5 10.0 5.3 72.8 2356.5 17.2 6.5 3474.6
2040 305.0 378.7 589.4 144.4 10.2 5.3 74.3 2666.1 17.6 6.6 4024.2
2045 311.5 386.7 666.9 146.5 10.4 5.4 75.9 3016.5 18.0 6.8 4647.0
2050 318.3 395.2 754.5 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.5 7.0 5352.9
2055 320.1 397.8 815.1 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.9 7.2 5529.5
2060 321.4 399.5 852.2 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.3 7.3 5638.6
2065 322.5 400.8 875.5 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.6 7.4 5729.3
2070 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.5 5774.5
2075 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 5774.5
2080 323.2 401.2 9 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 5774.5
2085 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 5774.5
2090 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 5774.5
2095 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 5774.5
2100 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 5774.5

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-67

EXHIBIT B-61

90 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Parti
and Post-2050 Growth and 1:5 Substitution (1998)

pation

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995, 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 213.3 271.0 206.1 49.4 5.7 5.9 34.7 664.0 9.9 5.8 169.0
2005 201.1 216.9 245.4 43.3 3.8 4.4 29.4 664.0 14.8 6.9 230.1
2010 126.5 134.5 280.3 23.2 1.9 2.8 10.8 664.0 19.7 8.4 306.1
2015 98.0 88.2 317.8 23.2 1.6 1.3 10.8 664.0 24.2 9.9 369.3
2020 58.9 71.3 359.7 23.2 1.6 1.1 10.8 664.0 29.0 11.3 434.3
2025 52.9 58.6 407.0 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 33.6 13.1 498.5
2030 44.5 55.6 460.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 38.9 15.1 569.2
2035 44.5 55.6 520.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 45.0 17.3 646.6
2040 44.5 55.6 589.4 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 52.0 20.1 734.2
2045 44.5 55.6 666.9 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 60.2 23.4 833.4
2050 44.5 55.6 754.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 69.6 27.4 945.5
2055 44.5 55.6 853.6 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 80.2 31.7 1072.4
2060 44.5 55.6 965.8 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 92.0 36.4 1215.9
2065 44.5 55.6 1092.7 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 105.2 41.7 1378.3
2070 44.5 55.6 1236.3 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 119.9 47.6 1562.1
2075 44.5 55.6 1398.8 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 135.7 54.1 1770.0
2080 44.5 55.6 1582.6 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 153.6 61.4 2005.2
2085 44.5 55.6 1790.5 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 173.8 69.7 2271.4
2090 44.5 55.6 2025.8 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 196.7 78.9 2572.5
2095 44.5 55.6 2292.0 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 222.5 89.2 2913.1
2100 44.5 55.6 2593.2 23.2 1.6 0.9 10.8 664.0 251.8 101.0 3298.6

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


EXHIBIT B-12
Protocol: Participation Scenario
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cCl4 CH3CCL3 = -H- 1211 H-1304

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 373.8 448.6 122.2 208.4 16.0 6.9 107.4 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 395.3 464.8 165.4 206.5 15.0 7.5 104.4 866.4 5.7 4.5
2000 = 389.5 462.5 206.1 182.8 12.7 7.5 92.3 992.9 8.7 5.0
2005 407.7 473.7 245.4 183.4 12.2 7.2 91.2 1123.4 12.4 5.6
2010 398.1 464.0 280.3 182.4 11.9 6.6 88.5 1271.0 15.8 6.3
2015 397.9 465.6 317.8 187.2 12.1 6.3 91.1 1438.1 17.0 6.8
2020 «397.2 473.2 359.7 192.2 12.4 6.3 93.9 1627.0 18.7 7.0
2025 407.1 483.4 407.0 197.5 12.8 6.4 96.8 1840.9 19.2 7.3
2030 417.8 497.5, 460.4 203.0 13.1 6.6 99.9 2082.8 20.0 7.4
2035 431.6 513.2 520.9 208.8 13.5 6.7 103.1 2356.5 20.7 7.4
2060 446.1 529.8 589.4 215.0 13.9 6.9 106.5 2666.1 21.5 7.7
2045 461.3 547.2 666.9 221.4 14.3 7.1 110.1 3016.5 22.5 8.0
2050 477.4 565.6 754.5 228.2 14.7 7.2 113.8 3412.9 23.5 8.4
2055 481.5 571.4 815.1 228.2 14.8 7.4 113.8 3412.9 24.4 8.7
2060 «484.7 575.0 852.2 228.2 14.8 7.4 113.8 3412.9 25.2 8.9
2065 = 487.2 577.8 875.5 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 3412.9 25.9 9.1
2070 488.7 578.7 879.1 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 3412.9 26.4 9.3
2075 488.7 578.7 879.1 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 3412.9 26.4 9.4
2080 = 488.7 578.7 879.1 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 © 3412.9 26.5 9.5
2085 488.7 578.7 879.1 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 3412.9 26.5 9.5
2090 488.7 578.7 879.1 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 3412.9 26.5 9.5
2095 488.7 578.7 879.1 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 3412.9 26.5 9.5

2100 488.7 578.7 879.1 228.2 14.8 7.5 113.8 3412.9 26.5 9.5


11

The difference in the compounds’ atmospheric lifetimes have important
implications for the relative contributions that the compounds make to
chlorine levels over time. For example, it has been estimated that CFC-11 and
CFC-12 have approximately the same ozone-depleting potential on a mass basis.
This implies that at constant and equal levels of emissions, each of the
compounds would contribute the same amount of chlorine to the stratosphere
once steady-state conditions were achieved.

However, because the two compounds have different lifetimes, steady-
state conditions are not achieved at the same rate for each. Additionally,
because the lifetimes are very long for each compound and because atmospheric
conditions are not near steady state given current levels of emissions, it
will take many decades before steady state conditions are approached.
Therefore, as shown in Exhibit 4, the contributions of chlorine from CFC-11
and CFC-12 would not be equal over the next 50 years from equal annual
emissions of 300 million kilograms per year.

The differences in contributions of chlorine between these two
compounds is emphasized in Exhibit 5 which shows the contribution over time
from a single year of emissions of 300 million kilograms. Initially, CFC-11
contributes significantly more chlorine. Because CFC-12 has a longer
lifetime, its contribution declines more slowly over time, and after about 100
years its contribution exceeds the contribution from CFC-11. Exhibit 6 shows
the contribution of each of the compounds relative to the CFC-11 contribution
on a year-by-year basis. As expected, the relative contributions of CH3CC13
and HCFC-22 decline rapidly due to their short lifetimes. However, to the
extent that one is concerned about near-term increases in Clx on the order of
1.0 2.0 ppbv, near-term increases in CH3CC13 emissions must be considered

carefully. Although the compounds with longer lifetimes show increasing


B-24

EXHIBIT B-18
Protocol: 1:10 Substitution Scenario
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8 7.8
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 5.6 4.4 30.6
2000 321.5 392.8 206.1 140.6 10.6 7.0 73.1 992.9 8.3 4.8 61.5

2005 330.3 390.4 245.4 138.2 9.8 6.4 70.6 1123.4 11.7 5.3 84.8
2010 309.9 367.9 280.3 134.0 9.4 5.7 66.5 1271.0 14.7 6.0 117.4
2015 298.5 356.8 317.8 135.5 9.4 5.2 67.6 1638.1 15.2 6.4 137.7
2020 287.4 355.8 359.7 137.1 9.5 5.1 68.8 1627.0 16.4 6.4 165.8
2025 290.0 358.3 407.0 138.8 9.7 5.1 70.1 1840.9 16.5 6.6 195.6
2030 293.1 364.1 460.4 140.6 9.8 5.2 71.4 2082.8 16.9 6.6 228.9
2035 298.9 371.2 520.9 142.5 10.0 5.3 72.8 2356.5 17.2 6.5 266.3
2040 305.0 378.7 589.4 144.4 10.2 5.3 74.3 2666.1 17.6 6.6 308.8
2045 311.5 386.7 666.9 146.5 10.4 5.4 75.9 3016.5 18.0 6.8 356.9

2050 318.3 395.2 754.5 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.5 7.0 411.4
2055 320.1 397.8 815.1 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.9 7.2 428.6
2060 321.4 399.5 852.2 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.3 7.3 439.3

2065 322.5 400.8 875.5 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.6 7.4 448.3
2070 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.5 452.8
2075 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 452.8
2080 323.2 401.2 9 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 452.8
2085 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 452.8
2090 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 452.8
2095 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 452.8
2100 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 452.8

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

EXHIBIT B-23

B-29

90 Percent Reduction with 100 Percent Participation (1990)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115

CFC-14 cFc-12
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5
106.4 179.5 122.2 19.5
96.3 66.9 165.4 20.7
96.1 83.5 206.1 21.8
104.4 105.9 245.4 21.8
39.5 48.1 280.3 21.8
39.3 48.1 317.8 21.8
39.2 48.0 359.7 21.8
39.2 48.0 407.0 21.8
39.2 48.0 460.4 21.8
39.2 48.0 520.9 21.8
39.2 48.0 589.4 21.8
39.2 48.0 666.9 21.8
39.2 48.0 754.5 21.8
39.2 48.0 815.1 21.8
39.2 48.0 852.2 21.8
39.2 48.0 875.5 21.8
39.2 48.0 879.1 21.8
39.2 48.0 879.1 21.8
39.2 48.0 879.1 21.8
39.2 48.0 879.1 21.8
39.2 48.0 879.1 21.8
39.2 48.0 879.1 21.8
39.2 48.0 879.1 21.8

14.3
4.3
1.4
1.4

RRRRR RRR RRR RRR RRR RRR

4.7
5.5
3.6
2.9
2.4

9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4
9.4

CH3CCL3
813.8
738.1
866.4
992.9

1123.4
1271.0
1438.1
1627.0
1840.9
2082.8
2356.5
2666.1
3016.5
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9
3412.9



B-45

EXHIBIT B-39

97 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998)

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4 = =CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 6.2 5.0
2000 = 222.3 280.0 206.1 48.3 5.8 5.9 36.5 992.9 9.9 5.8
2005 219.0 233.5 245.4 45.9 4.0 4G 34.0 1123.4 14.8 6.9
2010 165.0 176.3 280.3 33.0 2.8 2.9 21.8 1271.0 19.7 8.4
2015 142.9 140.3 317.8 34.5 2.7 1.5 22.9 1438.1 24.2 9.9
2020 108.7 131.6 359.7 36.1 2.8 1.4 24.1 1627.0 29.0 11.3
2025 109.7 128.8 407.0 37.7 3.0 1.3 25.3 1840.9 33.6 13.1
2030 6109.2 133.4 460.4 39.5 3.1 1.4 26.7 2082.8 38.9 15.1
2035 114.9 140.5 520.9 41.4 3.3 1.5 28.1 2356.5 45.0 17.3
2040 «121.1 148.0 589.4 43.4 3.5 1.5 29.6 2666.1 52.0 20.1
2045 127.5 156.0 666.9 45.5 3.7 1.6 31.2 3016.5 60.2 23.4
2050 = 134.4 164.5 754.5 47.7 3.8 1.7 32.9 3412.9 69.6 27.4
2055 136.1 167.1 815.1 47.7 3.9 1.7 32.9 3412.9 78.7 30.5
2060 137.5 168.8 852.2 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 86.7 33.1
2065 138.6 170.1 875.5 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 93.9 35.3
2070 8139.2 170.5 879.1 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 99.4 37.3
2075 139.2 170.5 879.1 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 100.2 38.8
2080 «139.2 170.5 879.1 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 100.8 39.6
2085 139.2 170.5 879.1 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 100.8 40.3
2090 = 139.2 170.5 879.1 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2095 139.2 170.5 879.1 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2100 = 139.2 170.5 879.1 47.7 3.9 1.8 32.9 3412.9 100.8 40.5


-63-

REFERENCES
Connell (1986), "A Parameterized Numerical Fit to Total Column Ozone Changes
Calculated by the LLNL 1-D Model of the Troposphere and Stratosphere,"
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California.
Connell and Wuebbles (1986), Ozone Puturbat in the L_One -Dimensiona:
Model - Calculated Effects of Projected Trends in CFC’ CH4, CO2 O_ and
Halons Over 90 Years, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore

California.

EPA (1987), Assessing t) i of Trace Gases That Can Modify the
Stratosphere, Washington, D.C., EPA 400/1-87/001.

EPA (1988), Regulatory Impact Analysis; Protection of Stratospheric Ozone,
Washington, D.C.

ITC (1988), “Synthetic Organic Chemicals," ITC, Washington, D.C.

UNEP (1987), "Ad Hoc Scientific Meeting to Compare Model-Generated Assessments
of Ozone Layer Change for Various Strategies for CFC Control," April 1987.

WMO (1986), Atmospheric Ozone 1985, NASA, Washington, D.C.


A-5

EXHIBIT A-1

CONVERSION FACTOR COMPUTATION DATA

Molecular Relative Conversion
Compound #C1/Molecule4 Weight Efficiency Factor
cell 3 be Li 1363x104
CFG-12 2 120.9 0.84 0.761x10°4
CFC-22 1 86.5 0.45 0.285x1074
CFC-113 3 187.4 1.078 0.945x1074
CFC-114 2 170.9 0.58 0.372x10~4
CFC-115 1 154.5 0.288 0.102x10~4
CFC14 4 153.8 1.20 1.709x1074
CH3CC13 3 133.4 1.19 1.466x1074

a/ #C1/Molecule = number of chlorine atoms per molecule.

b/ For each compound, the conversion factor is computed as:
5.477x1073 * (#C1/Molecule) / Molecular Weight * Relative

Efficiency.

Source: Connell (1986)


-16-
3.2 Impact of Participation Assumptions
The importance of the international participation assumptions in the
Protocol Clx estimates is assessed by evaluating alternative sets of

participation assumptions, listed in Exhibit 13. In addition to the standard

assumption of 94 percent participation among non-U.S. developed nations and 65
percent participation among developing nations, poth higher (up to 100
percent) and lower (down to 60 percent for developed nations and down to 40
percent for developing nations) participation scenarios are examined. The
results are displayed in Exhibit 14.

As shown in Exhibit 14, even with 100 percent global participation
(Participation Scenario D), the Protocol requirements do not maintain Clx
levels at their 1985 values. Assuming that CH3CC13 does not grow (Scenario
D'), Clx increases by nearly 4 ppbv by 2100 (with 100 percent participation)
which is approximately 2 ppbv less than Scenario D. Exhibit 15 shows that
CH3CC13 accounts for nearly 40 percent of the increase in Clx by 2100 under
the Scenario D assumptions. The scenarios with lower participation rates show
larger increases in Clx.

3.3 Impact of Substitution Assumptions

In the previous sections it is assumed that as the Protocol
requirements are implemented and CFC and halon use is reduced, demand for
other ozone-depleting compounds is not affected. In fact, other ozone-
depleting compounds (HCFC-22 and CH3CC13 for example) will be substituted for
the controlled CFCs. These other compounds could, therefore, contribute to
increasing levels of Clx over time.

To evaluate the potential contributions of Clx from these substitute
compounds, five scenarios were analyzed in which a range of assumptions about

the quantity of substitutions was examined. Furthermore, it was assumed that


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

Wo Controls:

EXHIBIT B-20

B-26

2.5 percent Growth After 2050

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

cFC-14 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cCl4 = =CH3CCL3 =H 1291 H+ 1301
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
401.1 481.7 122.2 240.9 18.0 7.4 118.7 738.1 3.3 3.8
491.6 603.7 165.4 304.5 21.3 9.3 140.3 866.4 6.2 5.0
586.7 742.5 206.1 371.9 24.4 11.5 162.0 992.9 9.9 5.8
689.0 879.6 245.4 420.7 27.7 13.5 183.3 1123.4 14.8 6.9
787.6 1004.0 280.3 476.0 31.3 15.4 207.4 1271.0 19.7 8.4
893.0 1139.7 317.8 538.6 35.4 17.5 234.6 1438.1 24.2 9.9

1011.0 1290.6 359.7 609.3 40.1 19.8 265.5 1627.0 29.0 11.3

1143.8 1460.2 407.0 689.4 45.4 22.4 300.3 1840.9 33.6 13.1

1294.1 1652.0 460.4 780.0 51.3 25.3 339.8 2082.8 38.9 15.1

1464.2 1869.1 520.9 882.5 58.1 28.6 384.5 2356.5 45.0 17.3

1656.6 2114.7 589.4 998.4 65.7 32.4 435.0 2666.1 52.0 20.1

1874.3 2392.6 666.9 1129.6 74.3 36.7 492.1 3016.5 60.2 23.4

2120.6 2707.0 754.5 1278.1 84.1 41.5 556.8 3412.9 69.6 27.4

2399.2 3062.7 853.6 1446.0 95.2 46.9 630.0 3861.3 80.2 31.7

2714.5 3465.2 965.8 1636.0 107.7 53.1 712.8 4368.7 92.0 36.4

3071.2 3920.6 1092.7 1851.0 121.8 60.1 806.4 4942.8 105.2 41.7

3474.8 4435.8 1236.3 2094.3 137.8 68.0 912.4 5592.3 119.9 47.6

3931.4 5018.7 1398.8 2369.5 155.9 76.9 1032.3 6327.1 135.7 54.1

4448.0 5678.1 1582.6 2680.9 176.4 87.0 1167.9 7158.6 153.6 61.4

5032.6 6424.3 1790.5 3033.1 199.6 98.5 1321.4 8099.3 173.8 69.7

5693.9 7268.5 2025.8 3431.7 225.8 111.4 1495.1 9163.5 196.7 78.9

6442.1 8223.6 2292.0 3882.7 255.5 126.1 1691.5  10367.7 222.5 89.2

7288.6 9304.3 2593.2 4392.8 289.1 142.6 1913.8 11730.3 251.8 101.0


-21

Because the investigations above indicate that CH3CC13 may become an
important relative contributor to Clx levels in the future (and because some
industrial reviewers indicated that they beleived that the demand for CH3CC13
may not grow), a scenario of freezing this compound at 1986 levels in 1990 was
investigated. Exhibit 21 shows the simulated increases in Clx associated with
the 100 percent reduction in the fully-halogenated CFCs along with the freeze
in CH3CC13. The increase in Clx is limited to under 1.5 ppbv assuming
participation similar to the participation used to model the Protocol. If 100
percent participation is assumed, Clx levels are simulated to decrease by 2100
by about 0.6 ppbv. By that time, the contribution of chlorine from all
compounds is less than the loss rate from stratosphere. In this scenario, the
Clx associated with all the compounds except CH3CC13 (which is frozen) and
HCFC-22 (which is not controlled) is simulated to decline. Unlike the other
scenarios examined, this scenario, which includes a freeze on CH3CC13 (but
does not include potential HCFC substitutes), stabilizes or reduces Clx
abundances.

4.2 Impact of Substitution and Post-2050 Growth Assumptions on
Stabilization

The long term outlook for Clx levels is influenced by the substitution
of ozone-depleting compounds for controlled compounds and by the assumption
that baseline compound use does not grow after 2050. Exhibit 22 shows the
implications of assuming that the baseline demand for products and services
that would use CFCs continues to grow at 2.5 percent per year from 2050 to
2100.24 The top two lines show the case of a 100 percent reduction in fully-

halogenated CFCs and a freeze on CH3CC13, assuming the participation rates

24 Under these baseline assumptions, compound use grows by 2.5 percent
per year after 2050. As described above, non-participants’ use of controlled
substances is reduced relative to these baseline assumptions when use limits
are simulated.


-48-
EXHIBIT 20

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMPOUNDS TO
INCREASES IN Clx: 100% REDUCTION WITH 100% PARTICIPATION

PERCENT OF Clix
200
[J cusccis a
BSey ccia 150 -—
[J cFe-115 499 JL
[E22] cFe-114 i
50
By crc-113 L
. 0
IX HCFC-22 [_ kK
CFC-12 50
WM ocro-1 -100
2000 2025 2050 2075 2100
Change in
Cx (ppb): 0.6 0.8 1.4 18 17

Steady State Increase in Clix (ppbv): 0.7

Assumptions:

o 100 percent reduction in the fully-halogenated CFCs is simulated
in 1990, with 100 percent global participation.

o Negative contribution indicates reduced levels of Clx associated
with those compounds.

o Baseline compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


B-22

EXHIBIT B-16
Protocol: 1:2 Substitution Scenario
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 = -H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8 38.8
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 5.6 4.4 153.2
2000 321.5 392.8 206.1 140.6 10.6 7.0 73.1 992.9 8.3 4.8 307.5
2005 330.3 390.4 245.4 138.2 9.8 6.4 70.6 1123.4 11.7 5.3 424.0
2010 309.9 367.9 280.3 134.0 9.4 5.7 66.5 1271.0 14.7 6.0 556.9
2015 298.5 356.8 317.8 135.5 9.4 5.2 67.6 1438.1 15.2 6.4 688.7
2020 287.4 355.8 359.7 137.1 9.5 5.1 68.8 1627.0 16.4 6.4 829.2
2025 290.0 358.3 407.0 138.8 9.7 5.1 70.1 1840.9 16.5 | 6.6 977.9
2030 293.1 364.1 460.4 140.6 9.8 5.2 71.4 2082.8 16.9 6.6 1144.5
2035 298.9 371.2 $20.9 142.5 10.0 5.3 72.8 2356.5 17.2 6.5 1331.6
2040 305.0 378.7 589.4 144.4 10.2 5.3 74.3 2666.1 17.6 6.6 1543.8
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.6
5

2045 311.5 386.7 666.9 = 146.5 10.4 75.9 3016.5 18.0 6.8 1784.4
2050 318.3 395.2 754.5 148.8 10.6 77.6 3412.9 18.5 7.0 2057.

2055 320.1 397.8 815.1 148.8 10.6 77.6 3412.9 18.9 7.2 2143.2
2060 321.4 399.5 852.2 148.8 10.6 77.6 3412.9 19.3 7.3 2196.7
2065 322.5 400.8 875.5 148.8 10.6 . 77.6 3412.9 19.6 7.4 2241.4
2070 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.5 2264.0
2075 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 2264.0
2080 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 2264.0
2085 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 2264.0
2090 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 2264.0
2095 323.2 401.2 = 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 2264.0
2100 323.2 401.2 879.1 148.8 10.6 5.6 77.6 3412.9 19.9 7.6 2264.0

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


31-
EXHIBIT 3
SIMULATED 1985 Clx AND HALON LEVELS

1985 Anthropogenic Clx Levels (ppbv)@

Stabilizing Estimated
Connell/ Emissions 1985 Emissions
Compound TaM> Wuebbles® wot (108 kgye® (108 kg)
CFC-11 0.68 0.63 0.6 67.2 (76%) 278
CFC-12 0.63 0.76 0.64 61.1 (83%) 364
CFC-113 0.10 0.10 0.11 1.5 (99%) 150
CFC-114 0.01 NR NR 1.0 (93%) 14
CFC-115 <0.01 NR <0.01 <0.1 (98%) 5
HCFC-22 0.01 0.04 0.05 22.0 (69%) 74
CH3CC13 0.57 0.41 0.4 575.0 (29%) 813f
cC14 0.67 0.65 0.64 60.9 (30%) 87
TOTAL 2.68 2.59 NR soot “>
1985 HALON Levels (pptv)
Stabilizing Estimated
Connell/ Emissions 1985 Emissions
Compound TAM Wuebbles wMo (108 kgye (108 kg)
Halon 1211 0.20 0.0 1.2 0.5 (64%) 1.4
Halon 1301 0.40 0.0 1.0 0.1 (95%) 2.0

NR = Not reported

a Anthropogenic sources only. Does not include natural chlorine from
CH3C1.

b Current values of chlorine exceed the 1985 values.

c Computed by multiplying the surface mole fraction by the number of atoms
per molecule.

d Values reported here computed by multiplying compound abundance values
reported in WMO (1986) by the number of chlorine atoms in the compound
molecule.

e "Stabilizing emissions" is the level of emissions that is estimated to

result in constant Clx (or halon) levels at the IAM-simulated values.
Estimates based on data developed in Connell (1986). Values in
parentheses are percent reductions from 1985 emissions.

£ Estimated 1985 production. Annual CH3CC13 production has varied
significantly from year-to-year. Estimated 1986 production is
approximately 600 million kilograms.

Sources: Connell and Wuebbles (1986), WMO (1986).


B-60

EXHIBIT B-54
95 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:5 Substitution (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 suBsT *
1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 16.2
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 64.4
2000 202.2 258.5 206.1 38.9 5.2 5.7 30.7 664.0 99 5.8 173.7
2005 188.7 199.6 245.4 33.2 3.2 4.1 25.3 664.0 14.8 6.9 236.1

2010 109.0 111.8 280.3 11.6 41 2.5 5.4 664.0 19.7 8.4 314.2
2015 79.2 62.4 317.8 11.6 0.8 0.9 5.4 664.0 24.2 9.9 378.2
2020 37.4 44.5 359.7 11.6 0.8 0.7 5.4 664.0 29.0 11.3, 443.9
2025 31.2 31.0 407.0 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 33.6 13.1 508.4
2030 22.3 27.8 460.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 38.9 15.1 579.2
2035 22.3 27.8 520.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 45.0 17.3 656.6
2040 22.3 27.8 589.4 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 52.0 20.1 744.2
2045 22.3 27.8 666.9 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 60.2 23.4 843.4
2050 22.3 27.8 754.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 69.6 27.4 955.5
2055 22.3 27.8 815.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 78.7 30.5 990.8
2060 22.3 27.8 852.2 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 86.7 33.1 1012.8
2065 22.3 27.8 875.5 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 93.9 35.3 1031.2
2070 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 99.4 37.3 1040.4
2075 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.2 38.8 1040.4
2080 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 39.6 1040.4
2085 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.3 1040.4
2090 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5 1040.4
2095 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5 1040.4
2100 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 0.8 0.4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5 1040.4

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


17-
the substituted compounds have the same atmospheric characteristics as HCFC-
22, or about 1/20 the depletion potential of crc-11.18
The five substitution scenarios are as follows:

o 1:1 -- Add one kilogram of the chemical substitute for each
kilogram of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced;

° 1:2 -- Add one kilogram of the chemical substitute for each two
kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced;

° 1:5 -- Add one kilogram of the chemical substitute for each five
kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced;

° 1:10 -- Add one kilogram of the chemical substitute for each 10
kilograms of CFC-11 and CFC-12 reduced; and

° 1:1* -- Add one kilogram of the chemical substitute for each
kilogram of CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, CFC-114 and CFC-115 reduced.

Exhibit 16 displays the results of these five scenarios, along with the
standard assumption of no substitution (i.e., the Protocol scenario).

As shown in Exhibit 16, substitution results in increased Clx levels.
The 1:1 and 1:1* substitutions, which must be considered as unrealistically
high due to the numerous opportunities for reducing CFC use without using

19 results in an increase in Clx of

ozone-depleting compounds as substitutes,
about 3 ppbv over the standard assumption by 2100. The 1:2 substitution

assumption, a more realistic worst case, results in an increase on the order

18 other partially-halogenated chlorine containing compounds under
consideration as substitutes include: HCFC-142b; HCFC-123; HCFC-141b; and
HCFC-124. Each of these compounds has an ozone depletion potential of the
same magnitude as HCFC-22. In addition, compounds containing no chlorine are
being considered as substitutes, such as HFC-134a. To the extent that any of
the widely-used partially-halogenated substitutes have significantly different
characteristics than HCFC-22, additional analyses may be required to assess
their implications for chlorine levels.

19 Epa (1988) describes a series of control options for reducing CFC use.
Major control options that do not include ozone-depleting chemicals include:
product substitutes for many foam-blowing applications; non-chlorinated
chemical substitutes in solvent applications; recycling of used CFCs in
refrigeration and air conditioning applications; and HFC-134a as a chemical
substitute in refrigeration and air conditioning applications.


PARTS PER BILLION

-59-
EXHIBIT 31

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx FOR ALTERNATIVE STRINGENCY LEVELS
AND SUBSTITUTION ASSUMPTIONS WITH 100% GLOBAL PARTICIPATION,
A CH3CC13 FREEZE, AND POST-2050 GROWTH:

90% REDUCTION; 95% REDUCTION; 97% REDUCTION; 100% REDUCTION

40
90%

3.5 4
95%
97%

100%

1:2 Substitution

90%

95%
97%
100%

T T T
2025 2045 2065 2085

Assumptions:

o Reductions simulated in place of the 50% Protocol Reduction.

o 100% global participation.
o CH3CC13 freeze at 1986 levels in 1989.

Substitute assumed to have the atmospheric characteristics of
HCFG-22.

o Baseline compound use continues to grow at 2.5% per year after
2050.


EXHIBIT B-51
97 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and 1:2 Substitution (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCL4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8 40.4
1995 351.7 9 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0 161.1
2000 197.8 253.5 206.1 34.8 5.0 5.7 29.0 664.0 9.9 5.8 439.0
2005 183.7 192.6 245.4 29.4 2.9 4.0 23.7 664.0 14.8 6.9 596.2
2010 102.0 102.7 280.3 7.0 0.8 2.4 3.2 664.0 19.7 8.4 793.5
2015 71.7 52.1 317.8 7.0 0.5 0.7 3.2 664.0 24.2 9.9 954.5
2020 28.9 33.8 359.7 7.0 0.5 0.5 3.2 664.0 29.0 11.3 1119.5
2025 22.5 19.9 407.0 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 33.6 13.1 1280.8
2030 13.4 16.7 460.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 38.9 15.1 1458.0
2035 13.4 16.7 520.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 45.0 17.3 1651.6
2040 13.4 16.7 589.4 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 52.0 20.1 1870.6
2045 13.4 16.7 666.9 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 60.2 23.4 2118.4
2050 13.4 16.7 754.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 69.6 27.4 2398.8
2055, 13.4 16.7 815.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 78.7 30.5 2437.0
2060 13.4 16.7 852.2 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 86.7 33.1 2542.1
2065 13.4 16.7 875.5 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 93.9 35.3. 2588.0
2070 13.4 16.7 = 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 99.4 37.3 2611.1
2075 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.2 38.8 2611.1
2080 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 39.6 2611.1
2085 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.3 2611.1
2090 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5 2611.1
2095 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5 2611.1
2100 13.4 16.7 879.1 7.0 0.5 0.3 3.2 664.0 100.8 40.5 2611.

* Partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


EXHIBIT B-35

100 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation and Post-2050 Growth
and 1:2 Substitution

1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055
2060
2065
2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 CCl4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301 SUBST *
278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1 0.0
80.2 153.4 122.2 0.0 3.1 5.4 0.0 606.6 2.7 2.3 324.6
67.2 27.8 165.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 606.6 2.7 1.9 500.2
65.1 42.4 206.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 606.6 3.1 1.7 610.9
71.5 63.4 245.4 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 606.6 4.5 1.6 716.9
0.0 0.0 280.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.5 1.8 895.8
0.0 0.0 317.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.6 0.8 1016.4
0.0 0.0 359.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.8 1150.8
0.0 0.0 407.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.9 1302.0
0.0 0.0 460.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1473,
0.0 0.0 520.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1666.7
0.0 0.0 589.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 1885.6
0.0 0.0 666.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2133.5
0.0 0.0 754.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2413.8
0.0 0.0 853.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 2731.0
0.0 0.0 965.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 3089.9
0.0 0.0 1092.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 3495.9
0.0 0.0 1236.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 3955.3
0.0 0.0 1398.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 4475,
0.0 0.0 1582.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 5063.1
0.0 0.0 1790.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 5728.5
0.0 0.0 2025.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 6481.2
0.0 0.0 2292.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 7332.9
0.0 0.0 2593.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 606.6 0.0 0.0 8296.5

* partially-halogenated chlorine-containing chemical substitutes (such as HCFCs 22, 123, 141b, 142b)
modeled using the atmospheric characteristics of HCFC-22.


B-43

EXHIBIT B-37
90 Percent Reduction Scenario (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 ccl4 CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 6.2 5.0
2000 = 237.1 296.8 206.1 62.1 6.5 6.0 41.9 992.9 9.9 5.8
2005 =. 235.6 256.9 245.4 59.7 4.9 4.7 39.5 1123.4 14.8 6.9
2010 = 186.6 204.8 280.3 48.0 3.8 3.3 28.4 1271.0 19.7 8.4
2015 166.1 172.6 317.8 49.5 3.7 2.1 29.6 1438.1 24.2 9.9
2020 135.3 165.0 359.7 51.1 3.8 2.0 30.7 1627.0 29.0 11.3
2025 136.6 163.0 407.0 52.8 4.0 1.9 32.0 1840.9 33.6 13.

2030 = 136.6 167.8 460.4 54.6 4.1 2.0 33.3 2082.8 38.9 15.

2035 142.3 174.9 520.9 56.4 4.3 2.0 34.8 2356.5 45.0 17.3
2040 = 148.4 182.4 589.4 58.4 4.5 2.1 36.3 2666.1 52.0 20.

2045 154.9 190.4 666.9 60.5 4.7 2.2 37.9 3016.5 60.2 23.4
2050 = 161.8 198.8 754.5 62.8 4.8 2.3 39.5 3412.9 69.6 27.4
2055 163.5 201.5 815.1 62.8 49 2.3 39.5 3412.9 78.7 30.5
2060 «164.9 203.1 852.2 62.8 4.9 2.3 39.5 3412.9 86.7 33.1
2065 166.0 204.4 875.5 62.8 4.9 2.4 39.5 3412.9 93.9 35.3
2070 «166.6 204.8 879.1 62.8 4.9 2.4 39.5 3412.9 99.4 37.3
2075 166.6 204.8 879.1 62.8 4.9 2.4 39.5 3412.9 100.2 38.8
2080 166.6 204.8 879.1 62.8 4.9 2.4 39.5 3412.9 100.8 39.6
2085 = 166.6 204.8 879.1 62.8 49 2.4 39.5 3412.9 100.8 40.3
2090 = 166.6 204.8 879.1 62.8 49 2.4 39.5 3412.9 100.8 40.5
2095 = 166.6 204.8 879.1 62.8 4.9 2.4 39.5 3412.9 100.8 40.5

2100 = 166.6 204.8 879.1 62.8 4D 2.4 39.5 3412.9 100.8 40.5


-4-

1. INTRODUCTION
The recent Summary of the Ozone Trends Panel Report suggests that

current atmospheric models may be underpredicting the amount of depletion for
a given increase in atmospheric chlorine. The ability of models to project
future depletion has been called into question. This analysis does not seek
to address this problem -- that is, it does not focus on determining how the
models should be modified to better depict the quantitative relationship among
atmospheric levels of chlorine and bromine, and stratospheric ozone.

Instead, the goals of this report are to:

1. assess how atmospheric levels of chlorine and bromine will change
over time under the Montreal Protocol;

2. assess the emissions reductions necessary to stabilize the
abundances of chlorine and bromine;

3. assess the relative contribution of different compounds to future
increases in atmospheric levels of chlorine and bromine;

4. assess the potential contribution of partially-halogenated
compounds such as HCFC-22, in contributing to future increases in
chlorine levels; and

5. assess how atmospheric levels of chlorine and bromine may change
with different coverage and stringency requirements in the Montreal
Protocol.

The merit of examining the potential for future ozone depletion by
examining future levels of chlorine and bromine stems from the fact that
chlorine and bromine abundances are currently thought to be the primary
determinants of the risk of ozone depletion. Consequently, information about
the abundances of chlorine and bromine can be of use to the decision making
process without making final and certain conclusions about the quantitative

relationship between their abundances and ozone depletion. Of course, to the

extent that other chemicals, for example, NO, from high speed airplanes, or


1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
2055

2060
2065

2070
2075
2080
2085
2090
2095
2100

Protocol:

EXHIBIT B-14

Participation Scenario I

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-145

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22

278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5
375.7 453.7 122.2 214.8
399.3 483.4 165.4 222.5
396.2 494.7 206.1 210.3
417.1 514.3 245.4 212.7
441.5 507.8 280.3 213.4
414.9 512.7 317.8 220.2
417.3 523.6 359.7 227.3
428.4 536.9 407.0 234.7
440.4 554.2 460.4 242.6
455.4 573.3 520.9 250.8
471.3 593.4 589.4 259.4
488.0 614.5 666.9 268.5
505.6 636.8 754.5 278.0
511.1 644.2 815.1 278.0
515.3 648.0 852.2 278.0
518.7 651.0 875.5 278.0
520.7 652.0 879.1 278.0
520.7 652.0 879.1 278.0
520.7 652.0 879.1 278.0
520.7 652.0 879.1 278.0
520.7 652.0 879.1 278.0
520.7 652.0 879.1 278.0
520.7 652.0 879.1 278.0

14.3
16.4
16.3
14.8
14.5
14.4
14.7
15.2
15.7
16.2
16.8
17.4
18.0
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.7

4.7
7.1
7.9
8.4
8.5
8.3
8.1
8.3
8.5
8.8
9.1
9.4
9.7
10.1
10.3
10.4
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5
10.5

ccl4  CH3CCL3 H-1211 H-1304
87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
109.1 738.1 3.3 3.8
108.2 866.4 5.8 4.5
98.5 992.9 8.7 5.1
97.7 1123.4 12.5 5.7
95.4 1271.0 15.9 6.5
98.5 1438.1 17.2 7.1
101.7 1627.0 18.9 7.4
105.1 1840.9 19.5 7.8
108.7 2082.8 20.4 8.0
112.4 2356.5 21.2 8.2
116.4 2666.1 22.1 8.5
120.5 3016.5 23.1 9.0
124.9 3412.9 24.2 9.5
124.9 3412.9 25.3 9.9
124.9 3412.9 26.1 10.2
124.9 3412.9 26.9 10.5
124.9 3412.9 27.4 10.7
124.9 3412.9 27.5 10.9
124.9 3412.9 27.6 11.0
124.9 3412.9 27.6 4101
124.9 3412.9 27.6 W41
124.9 3412.9 27.6 11.1
124.9 3412.9 27.6 W161


-36-
EXHIBIT 8

SIMULATED INCREASES IN Clx:
NO CONTROLS; PROTOCOL; AND TRUE GLOBAL FREEZE

40.0 ——

35.04

30.0 4

25.04

20.0 +}

PARTS PER BILLION

15.0 4

10.04
Protocol

5.04

Protocol with CH3CCI3 Freeze

1 True Global Freg ic)

0.0 T T T
1985 2005 2025 2045 2065 2085

Assumptions:

No Controls: Compound use grows at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent
from 1985 to 2050, with no growth thereafter.

Protocol: U.S. participation; 94 percent participation in other
developed nations; 65 percent participation in developing
nations. Use of compounds not covered by the Protocol grows
at the rates in the No Controls scenario. Growth rates among
non-participants are reduced to 37.5 percent (developed
nations) and 50 percent (developing nations) of their baseline
values. Steady state increase in Clx is 10.2 ppbv.

True Global Freeze: The use of all chlorine-containing compounds is frozen at
1986 levels starting in 1990, and 100 percent participation is
achieved worldwide. Steady state increase in Clx is 9.9 ppbv.

Protocol with CH3CC13 Freeze: Same as Protocol assumptions, plus a freeze on
CH3CC13 use starting in 1989. Steady state increase in Clx is
8.0 ppbv.

Baseline Compound use is assumed to be constant after 2050.


B-52

EXHIBIT B-46
95 Percent Reduction with CH3CCL3 Freeze and 100 Percent Participation (1998)
Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cols = CH3CCL3. H-1211 H- 4301

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.1
1990 362.6 439.4 122.2 201.4 15.7 6.9 104.1 641.3 3.3 3.8
1995 351.7 421.5 165.4 180.2 13.7 7.2 91.6 660.9 6.2 5.0
2000 202.2 258.5 206.1 38.9 5.2 5.7 30.7 664.0 9.9 5.8
2005 = =188.7 199.6 245.4 33.2 3.2 4.1 25.3 664.0 14.8 6.9
2010 109.0 111.8 280.3 11.6 1.1 2.5 5.4 664.0 19.7 8.4
2015 79.2 62.4 317.8 11.6 8 9 5.4 664.0 24.2 9.9
2020 37.4 44.5 359.7 11.6 8 7 5.4 664.0 29.0 11.3
2025 31.2 31.0 407.0 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 33.6 13.4
2030 22.3 27.8 460.4 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 38.9 15.1
2035 22.3 27.8 520.9 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 45.0 17.3
2040 22.3 27.8 589.4 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 52.0 20.1
2045 22.3 27.8 666.9 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 60.2 23.4
2050 22.3 27.8 754.5 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 69.6 27.4
2055 22.3 27.8 815.1 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 78.7 30.5
2060 22.3 27.8 852.2 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 86.7 33.1
2065 22.3 27.8 875.5 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 93.9 35.3
2070 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 8 A 5.4 664.0 99.4 37.3
2075 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 100.2 38.8
2080 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 100.8 39.6
2085 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.3
2090 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5
2095 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5

2100 22.3 27.8 879.1 11.6 8 4 5.4 664.0 100.8 40.5


EXHIBIT B-21

Protocol: 2.5 Percent Growth After 2050

Global Emissions (Millions of Kilograms)

CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 CFC-113 CFC-114 CFC-115 cet CH3Ccl3 = H-1211—H- 130.

1985 278.3 363.8 73.8 150.5 14.3 4.7 87.4 813.8 1.4 2.

1990 364.3 440.8 122.2 202.5 15.7 6.9 104.6 738.1 3.3 3.8
1995 359.5 429.5 165.4 184.6 13.9 7.3 94.0 866.4 5.6 44
2000 «321.5 392.8 206.1 140.6 10.6 7.0 73.1 992.9 8.3 4.8
2005 = =330.3 390.4 245.4 138.2 9.8 6.4 70.6 1123.4 11.7 5.3
2010 309.9 367.9 280.3 134.0 9.4 5.7 66.5 1271.0 14.7 6.0
2015 298.5 356.8 317.8 135.5 9.4 5.2 67.6 1438.1 15.2 6.4
2020 287.4 355.8 359.7 137.1 9.5 5.1 68.8 1627.0 16.4 6.4
2025 290.0 358.3 407.0 138.8 9.7 5.1 70.1 1840.9 16.5 6.6
2030 293.1 364.1 460.4 140.6 9.8 5.2 71.4 2082.8 16.9 6.6
2035 298.9 371.2 520.9 142.5 10.0 5.3 72.8 2356.5 17.2 6.5
2040 305.0 378.7 589.4 144.4 10.2 5.3 74.3 2666.1 17.6 6.6
2045 311.5 386.7 666.9 146.5 10.4 5.4 75.9 3016.5 18.0 6.8
2050 «318.3 395.2 754.5 148.8 10.6 5.5 77.6 3412.9 18.5 7.0
2055 = 325.6 404.1 853.6 151.1 10.8 5.6 79.4 3861.3 19.0 7.2
2060 333.3 413.6 965.8 153.6 11.0 5.7 81.3 4368.7 19.6 7.4
2065 = 341.5 423.7 1092.7 156.3 11.2 5.8 83.3 4942.8 20.2 7.6
2070 350.2 434.4 1236.3 159.1 11.4 5.9 85.5 5592.3 20.8 7.8
2075 359.4 445.8 1398.8 162.0 14.7 6.0 87.7 6327.1 21.5 8.1
2080 369.1 457.8 1582.6 165.1 12.0 6.1 90.2 7158.6 22.3 8.3
2085 379.5 470.6 1790.5 168.5 12.3 6.2 92.7 8099.3 23.2 8.6
2090 =390.5 484.2 2025.8 172.0 12.6 6.3 95.4 9163.5 24.1 8.8
2095 402.1 498.6 2292.0 175.7 12.9 6.5 98.3 10367.7 25.1 %

2100 414.4 513.9 2593.2 179.6 13.2 6.6 101.3 11730.3 26.2 9.4


39-
EXHIBIT 11

RELATIVE CONTRIBUTION OF THE COMPOUNDS TO
INCREASES IN Clx: TRUE GLOBAL FREEZE

PERCENT OF Cix

120
[-_] cuacci3 L
BSsy ccia 100
[7] cFe115 gg [LL
[7] cre-114 7
60 }—
Hs crc-113 L.
HeFc-22 4° [7
CFC-12 20 f—
MB Ocro-11 o L

2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

Change in
Che (ppb. 2 34 4.6 58 67

Steady State Increase in Clx (ppbv): 9.9

Assumptions:

True Global Freeze:

The use of all chlorine-containing compounds is frozen at
1986 levels starting in 1990, and 100 percent
participation is achieved worldwide.