The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports: 

A Focus on Leisure Travelers who need a Visa to enter the United States

by Maksim Belenkiy 

Office of Competition and Economic Analysis 

November 2012 

Manufacturing and Services Economics Briefs are produced by the Office of Competition and Economic Analysis of 

the International Trade Administration’s Manufacturing and Services unit. A complete list of reports, along with 

links to other trade data and analysis, is available at www.trade.gov/mas/ian. 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

ii The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012

Acknowledgments 

I would like to thank Ron Erdmann, Richard Champley and Claudia Wolfe from the 

Office of Travel and Tourism Industries; Gary Sheaffer and Brooke Moppert from the 

Department of State; Praveen Dixit, Joseph Flynn, Stefan Osborne and David Riker for helpful 

discussions; and Brandon Thurner for excellent research assistance. In addition, I would like to 

thank the Office of Travel and Tourism Industries for access to the 2009 Survey of International 

Air Travelers, which made this analysis possible.
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The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports iii 

Contents 

Acknowledgments........................................................................................................................... ii

Contents ......................................................................................................................................... iii

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ v

1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

2. Share of U.S. Services Exports to Nonresident Air Travelers Who Require a Visa .................. 3

2.1.Data on Inbound Overseas International Travel .................................................................. 3

2.2.Share of All Visa-Required Air Travelers ........................................................................... 4

2.3.Share of U.S. Travel Services Exports to All Visa-Required Nonresident Air Travelers ... 6

3. Implications of the Estimates ..................................................................................................... 7

4. Conclusion .................................................................................................................................. 8

Appendix A. List of Countries and VWP Participation in 2009 ..................................................... 9

Appendix B. Visa Waiver Program Eligibility Requirements ...................................................... 11

Appendix C. Robustness of Travel Expenditure Calculations ...................................................... 13

Appendix D. Population Weights in the SIAT Data ..................................................................... 15

Tables 

Table 1 - Fractions and Counts of Arrivals by Purpose Type and Visa Program in 2009 ............. 5

Table 2 - Total Counts of Visa-Required and Visa-Free Overseas Arrivals by Travel Purpose in 

2009................................................................................................................................................. 6

Table 3 - Total Expenditures of Visa-Required and Visa-Free Overseas Arrivals by Travel Type 

in 2009 ............................................................................................................................................ 7

Table C1 - Travel Receipts and Share of Travelers by Purpose of Visit Matched From BEA and 

I-94 Counts.................................................................................................................................... 13

Table C2 - Total Expenditures Based on Population Shares of Visa-Required and Visa-Free 

Overseas Arrivals by Travel Type ................................................................................................ 14

 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

iv The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012

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International Trade Administration 

The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports v 

Executive Summary 

The travel and tourism industry plays an important role in achieving the National Export 

Initiative goal of doubling exports by the end of 2014. In fact, the President’s Export Council 

and the President’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council both highlight the benefits of this sector 

and make recommendations to increase the number of visitors to the United States. Furthermore, 

the President on January 19, 2012, signed Executive Order 13597, Establishing Visa and Foreign 

Visitor Processing Goals and the Task Force On Travel Competitiveness. 

In 2011, 63 million international visitors to the United States accounted for a total of 

$153 billion in travel and tourism exports, 25 percent of total U.S. services exports. These 

expenditures are one of the largest categories of U.S. services exports with leisure travelers being 

the largest consumers of travel services. Visitors to the United States fall into two categories: 

those that need a visa to enter and those that do not. Over the past 10 years, travel expenditures 

of visitors who need a visa to enter the United States have increased by 13 percent. According to 

the 2009 Survey of International Air Travelers, the average duration of leisure trips for visitors to 

the United States who need a visa is nearly five nights longer that for visa-free visitors. In this 

brief, we assess the contribution of overseas leisure travelers (except those from Canada and 

Mexico by land) that need a visa to enter the United States because this group can play an 

important role in growing exports in U.S. travel services. 

Based on the 2009 Survey of International Air Travelers, we find: 

 The expenditure share of all overseas travelers who need a visa to enter the United States 

is 47 percent, with most of that share coming from leisure travelers. 

 If the number of overseas leisure travelers that require a visa could be increased by 10 

percent, aggregate leisure expenditures would be increased by 4.6 percent or by $1.25 

billion. 

 For the National Export Initiative priority countries Brazil, China, and India, a 10 percent 

increase in leisure visitors would increase travel expenditures by $344 million. 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

vi The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012

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The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 1 

1. Introduction 

Despite the recent global recession, international travel flows have remained high. 

According to the United Nations World Tourism Organization, there were a total of 880 million 

world-wide travelers in 2009, and 940 million in 2010. Within the Americas, the United States 

remains the top destination. Globally, the United States has been the second most popular 

destination for the past two years. Nevertheless, there is significant room to grow exports in 

travel services by increasing the U.S. share of international travelers. 

The travel and tourism industry plays an important role in achieving the National Export 

Initiative goal of doubling exports by the end of 2014. In fact, the President’s Export Council 

and the President’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council both highlight the benefits of this sector 

and make recommendations to increase the number of visitors to the United States. Furthermore, 

the President on January 19, 2012, signed Executive Order 13597, Establishing Visa and Foreign 

Visitor Processing Goals and the Task Force On Travel Competitiveness.1

In 2011, 63 million international visitors to the United States accounted for a total of 

$153 billion in travel and tourism exports, or 25 percent of total U.S. services exports.2

 Spending 

in the U.S. (travel receipts) totaled $116 billion and passenger fare receipts (spending on U.S. 

carriers) were $37 billion. Overseas travelers (excluding Canadians and Mexicans by land) to the 

United States totaled 27.9 million visitors who spent a total of $120 billion, $90 billion of which 

was for travel receipts and $30 billion on airfare receipts. These expenditures are one of the 

largest categories of U.S. services exports with leisure travelers being the largest consumers of 

travel services. 

Visitors to the United States fall into two categories: those that need a visa to enter and 

those that do not. Over the past 10 years, travel expenditures of visitors who need a visa to enter 

the United States have increased by 13 percent. According to the 2009 Survey of International 

Air Travelers (SIAT), the average duration of leisure trips for visitors to the United States who 

need a visa is nearly five nights longer that for visa-free visitors. In this brief, we assess the 

 

1

 Federal Register, Vol. 77, No. 15, January 24, 2012, pp. 3373-75. 

2 Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Visitation to the United States: A Statistical Summary of 

U.S. Visitation (2011) (Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Administration, 2011). 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

2 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

contribution of overseas leisure travelers (except those from Canada and Mexico by land) that 

need a visa to enter the United States because this group can play an important role in growing 

exports in U.S. travel services. 

For calculating travel expenditures it is necessary to carefully account for shares of visarequired and visa-free travelers. For example, some residents of non-Visa Waiver Program 

(VWP) countries hold passports from VWP countries and can travel to the United States visafree. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) regulates the Visa Waiver Program, a 

program under which citizens from participating countries do not require visas for short-term (90 

day) leisure travel to the United States.3 Currently, 36 countries participate in the VWP, and most 

of the participating countries are developed market economies.4 While only 20 percent of the 

countries represented by visitors to the United States are VWP counties, they account for 40 

percent of all non-Canadian arrivals. This implies that 60 percent of non-Canadian international 

travelers require a visa to enter to the United States.5

We use individual responses by overseas travelers from the Survey of International Air 

Travelers in 2009 to identify visa-required travelers and examine growth in U.S. travel service 

exports for leisure travelers. We do this in three steps. First, we calculate the fraction of visarequired business and leisure travelers from each country, based on their country of citizenship 

(regardless of whether the individual has already been issued a visa or needs a new issuance).6

Second, we use this fraction to calculate separate dollar amounts of travel expenditures by visarequired travelers from each country of residence and total dollar amounts of travel expenditures 

 

3

Legislation created the VWP in 1986 as a pilot program; subsequent legislation in 2000 modified many of its 

requirements and made it a permanent program. 

4

 See Appendix A for a list of all VWP countries. 

5

 Many travelers from VWP countries still require a visa because they are residents, but not citizens, of those 

countries. As long as a citizen of a VWP country meets eligibility requirement, including that the business or leisure 

visit not exceed 90 days, the traveler may enter the United States without a visa. The VWP eligibility guidelines still 

require that a resident of the VWP country obtain a visa if he or she is not a citizen of that country. For example, if 

an Australian resident is an Algerian citizen, he or she must have a visa to enter the United States. In addition, 

regardless of citizenship status, all non-American and non-Canadian travelers require a visa if the duration of their 

stay exceeds 90 days, or the purpose of travel is not tourism or temporary business. See Appendix B for VWP 

detailed eligibility requirements that are specified by law. 

6

 Visas are generally issued for multiple trips and can be valid for years. Around 11 percent of international arrivals 

use a visa obtained within the same year as the trip. This analysis includes repeat visitors who have multi-year 

visas. For example, visas that are issued for non-immigrant travelers from Brazil are valid for 10 years. 
International Trade Administration 

The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 3 

for all countries by the purpose of the visit. Finally, we use the actual expenditures of visarequired leisure travelers to calculate the increase in exports of U.S. travel services resulting 

from a 10 percent increase of these travelers.7

 This calculation provides an estimate of the 

potential growth of U.S. travel and tourism exports because we do not directly observe the 

expenditures of additional visa-required travelers. 

2. Share of U.S. Services Exports to Nonresident Air Travelers Who 

Require a Visa 

2.1. Data on Inbound Overseas International Travel 

We focus on the expenditures of nonresident air travelers who visited the United States in 

2009, because we have detailed information about this group from individual responses to the 

Survey of International Air Travelers (SIAT). The SIAT is a primary research program that 

gathers statistical data about air passenger travelers to and from the United States. It is used to 

calculate aggregate arrivals and travel expenditure values by each country to construct official 

government statistics on travel and tourism trends. The U.S. Department of Commerce estimates 

that air travelers accounted for 57.1 percent of all nonresident arrivals in 2009 and 68.3 percent 

of all non-Canadian, nonresident arrivals.8

A unique feature of the individual-level records from this survey is that each air traveler 

is asked to separately state his or her country of residence and citizenship.9 The SIAT files, to be 

consistent with the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s I-94 data, provide a weight for each 

respondent.10 The survey responses of the visitors who do not reside in the United States are 

weighted to match the aggregated I-94 arrival records to adjust for over- and under sampling in 

 

7

 10 percent is the growth rate in volume of international travelers between 2009 and 2010. 

8

 Office of Travel and Tourism Industries, International Visitation to the United States: A Statistical Summary of 

U.S. Arrivals (2009). 

9

 Non-citizens are required to do so also on the DHS I-94/W, ESTA. 

10 I-94 is a form denoting the Arrival-Departure Record of particular foreigners used by U.S. Customs and Border 

Protection. Form I-94 must be completed at the time of entry to the United States by foreign citizens that are being 

admitted into the United States in a nonimmigrant visa status. 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

4 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

the SIAT.11 Although the matching is based on an individual’s country of residence, the 

weighted SIAT data can also be used to calculate aggregate arrivals by country of citizenship. 

2.2. Share of All Visa-Required Air Travelers 

The SIAT dataset does not indicate whether individual respondents required visas. 

However, we observe the respondent’s country of citizenship (as well as his or her country of 

residence), and with this information, we can infer which air travelers required a visa.12 We 

classify each traveler in the 2009 SIAT as either requiring or not requiring a visa. Travelers who 

did not require a visa are either citizens of the United States or Canada, or citizens of countries 

that participate in the VWP and stay fewer than 90 days.13 Note that this implies that residents of 

non-VWP countries that have VWP citizenship are assumed to travel visa-free (and that residents 

of VWP countries who have non-VWP citizenship must have a visa). 

In our analysis, we consider two groups of nonresident air travelers: business and leisure. 

These two groups accounted for 95 percent of all nonresident air travelers. The business group 

includes nonresident air travelers who reported that the main purpose of their trip was business/ 

professional, or convention/conference/trade show. The leisure group includes nonresident air 

travelers who reported that their main purpose was leisure, recreation, holidays, sightseeing, or 

visiting friends or relatives. Table 1 reports the fraction of all nonresident arrivals by purpose of 

travel. 

We present these fractions for the top 25 countries in each VWP category (participant or 

nonparticipant). The average share of leisure travelers from VWP countries (74 percent) is higher 

than the share from non-VWP countries (67 percent). For example, by comparing the top five 

countries by total arrivals from each category, we observe that 78 percent of German travelers 

were leisure travelers as compared to 47 percent Indian travelers. The patterns are similar for 

 

11 The weights in the SIAT data are constructed by CIC Research Inc. For convenience, we provide the details on 

how CIC constructs the weights in Appendix D. 

12 However, some travelers from VWP countries still choose to travel to the United States on a visa. For example, a 

visitor may want to extend his/her stay in the United States beyond the 90 days allowed under the VWP. Since the 

number of travelers who stay longer than 90 days is small, for purposes of this analysis, we assume all travelers with 

VWP passports visit the United States visa-free. 

13 An eligible traveler under the VWP must meet many additional requirements. In the SIAT data, we observe only 

the duration of stay of each responding traveler. 
International Trade Administration 

The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 5 

other countries. Interestingly, the average share of business travelers from VWP is 26 percent, 

compared to 33 percent from non-VWP countries. 

Table 1 - Fractions and Counts of Arrivals by Purpose Type and Visa Program in 2009 

Country 

VWP 

Country 

Non-VWP 

Business Leisure Total Business Leisure Total 

United Kingdom 0.19 0.81 3,678,847 Mexico (air) 0.32 0.68 1,511,181

Japan 0.14 0.86 2,843,800 Brazil 0.23 0.77 871,721

Germany 0.22 0.78 1,574,905 India 0.53 0.47 498,780

France 0.18 0.82 1,083,456 Venezuela 0.12 0.88 491,504

Italy 0.22 0.78 716,327 China 0.56 0.44 473,266

South Korea 0.33 0.67 668,027 Colombia 0.23 0.77 409,582

Australia 0.17 0.83 654,053 Argentina 0.22 0.78 346,476

Spain 0.15 0.85 564,107 Israel 0.29 0.71 291,666

Netherlands 0.23 0.77 510,758 Taiwan 0.46 0.54 224,361

Ireland 0.16 0.84 397,396 Dominican Rep. 0.58 0.42 216,944

Switzerland 0.27 0.73 332,838 Bahamas 0.26 0.74 194,613

Sweden 0.26 0.74 314,884 Guatemala 0.27 0.73 182,216

Denmark 0.23 0.77 235,688 Jamaica 0.26 0.74 176,734

Belgium 0.31 0.69 233,499 Ecuador 0.21 0.79 163,964

Norway 0.27 0.73 186,811 Peru 0.16 0.84 154,649

Austria 0.23 0.77 151,541 Costa Rica 0.53 0.47 154,528

New Zealand 0.34 0.66 114,685 Philippines 0.29 0.71 151,375

Finland 0.25 0.75 109,114 Russia 0.34 0.66 140,189

Singapore 0.53 0.47 101,017 Trinidad 0.27 0.73 134,082

Portugal 0.29 0.71 67,107 Chile 0.51 0.49 122,197

Czech Republic 0.43 0.57 60,829 El Salvador 0.50 0.50 120,077

Greece 0.22 0.78 54,505 Honduras 0.23 0.77 112,616

Hungary 0.20 0.80 45,374 Poland 0.19 0.81 109,468

Iceland 0.30 0.70 27,714 Panama 0.44 0.56 107,651

Slovenia 0.29 0.71 17,726 Hong Kong 0.32 0.68 106,641

Average 0.26 0.74 0.33 0.67

Note: Totals reported are a sum of business and leisure travelers for the respective countries. 

Source: Authors’ calculations. 

Next, we estimate the shares of nonresident business and leisure travelers who require 

visas. To calculate this estimate, we divide the counts of visa-required travelers by the sum of 

counts of visa-required and visa-free travelers in the group. These estimates are presented in 

Table 2. 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

6 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

Table 2 - Total Counts of Visa-Required and Visa-Free Overseas Arrivals by Travel 

Purpose in 2009 

155 Countries Business Leisure 

No Visa Visa No Visa Visa 

Total 3,139,373 2,799,972 12,254,571 5,652,816 

Visa share 47 percent 32 percent 

Visa share total 35 percent 

Source: Authors’ calculations. 

In 2009, 47 percent of all nonresident business air travelers required visas. For 

nonresident leisure air travelers, 32 percent required visas. While the total share of visa-required 

travelers is 35 percent, this share varies significantly depending on the country of residence, 

whether the country participates in the VWP, and whether the travelers were American citizens. 

For example, the total share of visa-required travelers from Brazil, China and India exceeded 90 

percent. 

2.3. Share of U.S. Travel Services Exports to All Visa-Required 

Nonresident Air Travelers 

Our next step is to compute the dollar value and shares of travel expenditures by visarequired travelers. To obtain the dollar value of travel expenditures, we follow the methodology 

of calculating annual travel receipts implemented by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).14

First, we calculate average travel expenditures in the United States per air traveler by country of 

residence and by purpose of visit. Next, we multiply these travel expenditures by I-94 counts of 

travelers by country that are reported by DHS. Finally, we calculate the share of total 

expenditures from nonresident overseas air travelers in each group who require visas by using 

our estimate of the share of travelers who required a visa and the per capita expenditures within 

each group. Overall, the expenditure share for visitors (excluding Canada) that need a visa is 47 

percent. For business travelers who need a visa it is 51 percent, and for leisure travelers who 

need a visa it is 46 percent.15 These estimates are presented in Table 3. 

 

14 BEA reports total travel receipts regardless of purpose of travel and visa requirements. 

15 See Appendix C for a robustness check that compares the travel expenditure calculations that are based on SIAT 

with travel receipts statistics from BEA. 
International Trade Administration 

The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 7 

Table 3 - Total Expenditures of Visa-Required and Visa-Free Overseas Arrivals by Travel 

Type in 2009 

155 Countries Business Leisure 

No Visa Visa No Visa Visa 

Total $4,216,670,505 $4,425,400,205 $31,285,051,243 $26,606,541,239

Shares 49 percent 51 percent 54 percent 46 percent 

Visa share total 47 percent 

Source: Authors’ calculations. 

3.Implications of the Estimates 

We use the expenditure shares to calculate the change in U.S. travel services exports if 

the number of visa-required travelers increased. There is a basic mathematical relationship 

between the growth rate in overall U.S. travel and tourism exports to nonresident air travelers 

and the growth rate of each of the components. The growth rate of total exports is a share 

weighted average of the growth rates of the components: 

ሻݏݐݎ݋݌ݔܧ ݐ݊݁݊݋݌݉݋ܥ∆% ൈ ݐ݊݁݊݋݌݉݋ܥ ݂݋ ݁ݎ݄ܵܽሺ ෍ൌ ݏݐݎ݋݌ݔܧ ݈ܽݐ݋ܶ∆% 

We find that a substantial fraction of air travelers who visited the United States in 2009 

required a visa. When we separate the air travelers by the main purpose of their visit, 47 percent 

of business and 32 percent of leisure travelers required a visa. Using the same data, we find that 

47 percent of all travel expenditures come from visa-required air travelers, with most of that 

share coming from leisure travelers. An increase in the number of these travelers can potentially 

increase total travel and tourism exports in proportion to the expenditure shares.16 During 2010, 

the growth rate in total number of leisure travelers was 10 percent. Using that rate as an 

illustration and applying the above formula, we find that increasing overseas leisure travelers that 

require a visa by 10 percent would increase aggregate leisure travel expenditures by 4.6 percent 

or by $1.25 billion. 

 

16 An increase in travel expenditure can come from a larger volume of travelers or from an increase in spending on 

travel services by existing travelers. We do not distinguish between the alternatives in this brief. 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

8 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

We apply the formula to quantify the change in exports in travel services for air travelers 

for the NEI priority countries of Brazil, China, and India. Over 90 percent of travelers from those 

countries are required to obtain a visa to enter the United States. We estimate that leisure visitors 

from Brazil, China and India spent nearly $2.4 billon, $796 million and $655 million, 

respectively, on U.S. travel services. We find that increasing leisure travelers by 10 percent 

would increase the aggregate travel and tourism expenditures for Brazil, China, and India by 

$213 million, $72 million, and $59 million, respectively, or by a total of $344 million. 

4. Conclusion 

Using individual-level data from the SIAT, this brief calculates the fraction of air 

travelers who need a visa to enter the United States and the benefits of expanding the number of 

these travelers. It is not possible to predict the dollar costs of expanding visa services to 

accommodate this potential increase in demand without specifying the details of the changes. 

However, it is straightforward to determine what share of current U.S. travel and tourism exports 

are linked to visa-required visitors and thereby gauge the potential benefits in the form of 

increased U.S. services exports, which we estimate could be over $1 billion. We also find that 

U.S. services exports can benefit significantly from an increase volume of travelers from the 

three NEI priority countries of Brazil, China and India, which we estimate could be over $300 

million. 

The large share of expenditures on travel services by visa-required travelers suggests that 

an increase in the number of such travelers has the potential to significantly increase U.S. 

services exports and, in the process, significantly boost the U.S. travel industry. This could be 

achieved through encouraging holders of multi-year visas to make repeat trips and expanding the 

number of first-time visitors, or a combination of these factors. 

 
International Trade Administration 

The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 9 

Appendix A. List of Countries and VWP Participation in 2009 

Country of Residence VWP Country of Residence VWP 

Afghanistan no Ethiopia no

Albania no Finland yes

Algeria no Fr.Polynesia no

Andorra yes France yes

Angola no French Guiana no

Anguilla no Gabon no

Antigua & Barbuda no Gambia no

Argentina no Georgia no

Armenia no Germany yes

Aruba no Ghana no

Australia yes Gibraltar no

Austria yes Greece yes

Azerbaijan no Grenada no

Bahamas no Guadeloupe no

Bahrain no Guatemala no

Bangladesh no Guinea no

Barbados no Guyana no

Belarus no Haiti no

Belgium yes Honduras no

Belize no Hong Kong no

Benin no Hungary yes

Bermuda no Iceland yes

Bolivia no India no

Bosnia/Herzegovina no Indonesia no

Botswana no Iran no

Brazil no Iraq no

Brit Virgin Is. no Ireland yes

Brunei yes Israel no

Bulgaria no Italy yes

Burma/Myanmar no Ivory Coast no

Burundi no Jamaica no

Cameroon no Japan yes

Cayman Is. no Jordan no

Chad no Kampuchea/Cambodia no

Chile no Kazakhstan no

China, Peoples Rep. no Kenya no

Colombia no Korea, South yes

Congo no Kyrgyzstan no

Cook Is. no Kuwait no

Costa Rica no Laos no

Croatia no Latvia yes

Curacao no Lebanon no

Cyprus no Lesotho no

Czech Republic yes Liberia no

Denmark yes Lichtenstein yes

Dominica no Lithuania yes

Dominican Rep no Luxembourg yes

Ecuador no Macao/Macau no

Egypt no Macedonia no

El Salvador no Malawi no

Equatorial Guinea no Malaysia no

Estonia yes Maldives no
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

10 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

Country of Residence VWP Country of Residence VWP 

Malta yes Sri Lanka no

Mauritania no St Eustatius/Statia no

Mexico no St Kitts no

Moldova no St Lucia no

Monaco yes St Martin no

Mongolia no St Vincent no

Montenegro no Sudan no

Morocco no Suriname no

Mozambique no Swaziland no

Namibia no Sweden yes

Nepal no Switzerland yes

Netherlands yes Syria no

Netherlands Antilles no Taiwan no

Nevis no Tajikistan no

New Zealand yes Tanzania no

Nicaragua no Thailand no

Niger no Togo no

Nigeria no Tonga no

Norway yes Trinidad & Tobago no

Okinawa/Ryukyu Is. no Tunisia no

Oman no Turkey no

Pakistan no Turks & Caicos no

Palau no Uganda no

Panama no Ukraine no

Paraguay no UAE no

Peru no United Kingdom yes

Philippines no Burkina Faso no

Poland no Uruguay no

Portugal yes Uzbekistan no

Qatar no Venezuela no

Reunion Is. no Vietnam no

Romania no Western Samoa no

Russia no Yemen no

Rwanda no Zaire no

San Marino yes Zambia no

Rwanda no Zimbabwe no

San Marino yes 

Saudi Arabia no 

Senegal no 

Serbia no 

Sierra Leone no 

Singapore yes 

Slovakia yes 

Slovenia yes 

Somalia no 

South Africa no 

Spain yes 

Source: U.S. Department State 
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The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 11 

Appendix B. Visa Waiver Program Eligibility Requirements 

By law, travelers seeking to enter the United States under the VWP must meet the following 

requirements, provided that the travelers are citizens of VWP countries:17

 Travelers have received an authorization to travel under the VWP through the Electronic 

System for Travel Authorization. 

 They present the appropriate type of passport valid for six months past their expected stay in 

the United States (unless country-specific agreements provide exemptions). This requirement 

is in addition to other passport requirements for all categories of passports—regular, 

diplomatic, and official—when travelers are seeking to enter the United States for business or 

tourist purposes for a maximum of 90 days. 

 The purpose of their stay in the United States is leisure (WT) or business (visitor [WB] visa) 

for 90 days or fewer of travel. (If in doubt, travelers should check with the nearest U.S. 

embassy or consulate to verify that what they plan to do is considered leisure or business.) 

Transit through the United States is generally permitted. 

 Foreign media representatives planning to engage in that vocation in the United States are not 

eligible for VWP travel because the purpose of their stay does not qualify as business. These 

professionals must obtain a nonimmigrant media (I) visa. Travelers planning to work or study 

cannot travel on the VWP, and they must obtain the appropriate visa to travel to the United 

States. 

 If arriving by air or sea, travelers are traveling on an approved carrier and have a return trip 

ticket to any foreign destination. 

 They can demonstrate the intent to stay 90 days or fewer in the United States and have 

sufficient funds to support themselves while in the United States. 

 VWP travelers who have been admitted under the VWP and who make a short trip to Canada, 

Mexico, or an adjacent island generally can be readmitted to the United States under the VWP 

for the balance of their original admission period. 

 

 

17 The U.S. Department of State, “Visa Waiver Program,” 

http://travel.state.gov/visa/temp/without/without_1990.html. 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

12 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

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The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 13 

Appendix C. Robustness of Travel Expenditure Calculations 

We checked the robustness of our travel expenditure estimates using travel receipts 

values that are reported by BEA and detailed counts of travelers by visa type from I-94 

departure/arrivals records for 2009. For all countries, we have counts of business and leisure 

travelers who required a visa (B1, B2) or entered the United States under VWP. However, BEA 

officially reports travel receipts for only 33 countries and aggregated regions. We match the 

counts of travelers by travel purpose with travel receipts by aggregating counts for each region. 

Table C1 reports travel receipts and fractions of visa required and VWP business and leisure 

travelers from the matched data sets for the top twenty countries by travel receipts value. 

Table C1 - Travel Receipts and Share of Travelers by Purpose of Visit Matched From BEA 

and I-94 Counts 

Country/Region 

Travel Receipts 

(in millions) 

Business Leisure 

No Visa Visa No Visa Visa 

Japan $9,495 7.33% 0.18% 64.63% 0.23% 

United Kingdom $8,884 11.15% 0.54% 85.63% 1.68% 

Other South America $7,082 0.01% 14.90% 0.21% 82.44%

Mexico $5,991 0.00% 8.21% 0.05% 89.89%

Germany $4,479 14.51% 0.60% 80.73% 1.37% 

Other Europe $3,868 7.96% 8.82% 49.48% 30.77%

Other Western Hemisphere $3,331 1.12% 10.10% 2.64% 81.96%

Brazil $3,318 0.01% 12.56% 0.30% 84.74%

France $3,193 11.86% 0.55% 83.94% 1.35% 

Australia $2,974 12.74% 0.62% 83.58% 1.89% 

China $2,755 0.01% 30.55% 0.04% 47.54%

India $2,577 0.01% 24.71% 0.02% 62.12%

Korea $2,552 3.93% 11.72% 30.08% 28.93%

Italy $2,190 10.99% 0.85% 84.43% 1.71% 

Venezuela $1,740 0.03% 10.33% 0.84% 86.53%

Spain $1,596 8.46% 0.53% 87.44% 1.33% 

Netherlands $1,282 16.11% 0.51% 81.07% 0.99% 

Other Africa $1,225 0.04% 21.91% 0.56% 68.09%

Source: BEA and Author’s Calculations. 

We calculate the travel expenditures for each group of travelers by multiplying total 

travel receipts and shares of travelers by visa requirements. The caveat to this calculation is that 

it assumes that travel expenditures are equally distributed. In contrast, the SIAT data allow us to 
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

14 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

directly calculate the expenditure shares of travelers, because we observe expenditure value for 

each traveler. Table C2 reports the values of travel expenditure by travel purpose and visa type 

based on the population shares. 

Table C2 - Total Expenditures Based on Population Shares of Visa-Required and VisaFree Overseas Arrivals by Travel Type 

33 Countries/Regions Business Leisure 

No Visa Visa No Visa Visa 

Total $4,830,722,622 $6,572,135,199 $33,677,873,026 $29,744,133,326

Shares 42 percent 58 percent 53 percent 47 percent 

Visa share total 49 percent 

Source: Authors’ calculations. 

While total dollar value expenditures are slightly higher using BEA travel receipts, the 

expenditure shares of travelers by travel purpose and visa requirements are generally consistent 

with the respective expenditure shares we obtained using SIAT.18 Specifically, the difference 

between the two estimates in shares of expenditure by leisure travelers who required a visa is less 

than one percent. We focus on the expenditure shares calculated from the SIAT data. 

 

 

18 BEA has internal methodology to adjust travel expenditures. 
International Trade Administration 

The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 15 

Appendix D. Population Weights in the SIAT Data 

In the SIAT data, a responding traveler with a known country of citizenship is considered to be a 

“representative” traveler for that country. For example, if the population weight on a respondent 

from Brazil is 50, then that weight indicates that the respondent represents 50 travelers from 

Brazil with the same individual characteristics. By totaling all population weights, we can obtain 

the aggregate number of arrivals from any country. 

To match the individual level data with an aggregate arrivals data by country of residence (I-94), 

CIC Research Inc. uses the following methodology to calculate the population weights:19

The estimation of Non-Resident international air travel activity is a multi-step 

expansion process of the ITA-TI In-Flight Survey of International Air Travelers 

(IFS) data. There are a series of data preparation steps performed prior to 

initiating the expansion procedures outlined below. These initial steps take the 

raw data file through the creation of the working database, computer editing, and 

outlier analysis. A discussion of these steps will not be presented in this 

document. 

The primary activity for the expansion process is contained in several computer 

programs that are run in sequence. The Immigration and Naturalization Service 

(INS) Form I-94 data containing summarized port of entry by country of 

residence information is used as control totals during the expansion process of the 

International Air Travelers Non-Resident database. The I-94 data is received from 

the U.S. Department of Commerce on a quarterly basis. 

Step 1: Initial Survey Expansion

This step accounts for the children traveling with each responding adult. The 

initial expansion factor is one, unless children are a part of the travel party. The 

composition of the travel party is taken from the IFS data. If children are present, 

the initial expansion factor has a value greater than one. The exact value of the 

factor is dependent on the number of children and adults in the party. The formula 

for the initial expansion factor can be expressed as follows: 

 Initial expansion = 1 + (children count/adult count) 

 

19 The following steps are reprinted from “Description of Expansion Procedures for Estimating Non-Resident and 

Resident International Travel Activity”, CIC Research, 1999
Manufacturing and Services Economics Brief No. 9 

16 The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports – November 2012 

Step 2: I-94 Data Conversion

This step converts the codes in the I-94 data to compatible codes that have been 

predefined for the In-Flight Survey of International Air Travelers. The effected 

variables are the country of residence and port of entry. 

Control totals from the I-94 data are generated at this time. The control total is a 

summation of the count of non-residents for each port by country of residence and 

is used throughout the expansion process. 

Step 3: Summarize Survey Data

The IFS data using the country of residence and port of entry codes is summarized 

during this step. First, the I-94 data and the IFS are merged by country code and 

port of entry code. The resulting file contains the summarized counts from the I94 data and the count of responses from the IFS, by country of residence and port 

of entry. The merged data is compared with the control total to ensure it matches. 

Step 4: Divide In-Flight Survey of International Air Travelers Survey Data

Next, the file containing the summarized I-94 and IFS data is sorted, processed 

and divided into three different classifications. 

1) Records that contain both the I-94 count, the Survey of 

International Air Travelers count, and country of residence and 

U.S. port of entry codes. (The majority of the data.) 

2) Records that have missing country of residence or U.S. port of 

entry codes in the IFS data. (No match with the I-94 data.) 

3) Records that hold I-94 data, for a country of residence and a U.S. 

port of entry but have no corresponding IFS data. (No match with 

the IFS data.) 

Of the three record classifications identified, the last two types require further 

explanation. 

Type two records do not have a matching pair of country of residence and port of 

entry codes with the I-94 data. Therefore, initial expansion generated for the 

number of adults and children is reset to zero so they will not be added into the 

control total. 

The type three records are derived from the I-94 data and do not have any 

corresponding matches in the IFS data. A new “dummy” record is generated 

containing a final expansion factor, country of residence, and port of entry. This 
International Trade Administration 

The Potential for Growing U.S. Travel and Tourism Exports 17 

ensures the summation of the final expansion by country of residence and port of 

entry will equal the I-94 control total. 

The total of the three sections will match the I-94 control total by country of 

residence and U.S. port of entry. 

Step 5: Sort and Merge Data—Create Final Expansion

In this step, the Non-Resident file is read and sorted by the country of residence 

and port of entry. 

The initial expansion values in the IFS file are summarized by country of 

residence and port of entry. This value will be used to proportion the I-94 

expansion by the number of adults and children. 

A respondent’s final expansion value is created by taking the proportion of the 

respondent’s initial expansion value to the sum of all initial expansion values (by 

country of residence and port of entry) multiplied by the I-94 totals by country of 

residence and port of entry. The calculation appears as follows: 

 final expansion = ((initial expansion/sum of initial expansion) * I-94 

count) 

The total of the final expansion value for all records in the Survey of International 

Air Travelers database will equal the I-94 control total. 

Step 6: Create Comparison Table

The final step is run to check the I-94 table “Port of Entry by Country of 

Residence (Air Mode Only)” against the expanded estimate values in the IFS 

database. The results are shown in a cross tabulation table by world region and 

port of entry. The sum of the overseas visitors and the Mexican Air visitors from 

the IFS will equal the I-94 table control total. 
About the Office of 

Competition and Economic Analysis

The Office of Competition and Economic Analysis (OCEA) is part of the 

International Trade Administration’s Manufacturing and Services unit and provides 

industry and policy decision makers with information on the impacts of economic 

and regulatory policies on U.S. manufacturing and services industries. OCEA’s 

specialists perform in-depth industry analysis on the effects of domestic and foreign 

policy developments on U.S. business competitiveness. For more information, or to 

access other OCEA reports, visit www.trade.gov/mas/ian or contact the office at 

(202) 482-5145.

The International Trade Administration’s mission is to create prosperity by strengthening 

the competitiveness of U.S. industry, by promoting trade and investment, and by ensuring 

fair trade and compliance with trade laws and agreements.