PROCEEDINGS OF THE 

INTERNATIONAL CENTENNIAL

. MPOSIUM OF THE 

U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROFESSIONAL PAPFR 1193
Cover: Earthrise An astronaut's view of Planet Earth, across the heavily cratered far side of the Moon. 

The geologically dynamic Earth contrasts sharply with the inertness of its nearest neighbor. Apollo 11. 

NASA photograph no. 69 HC 905.

A

B D

Title Page: A, View looking southeast at an early stage of the eruption of Eldfell volcano on the island of Heimaey 

in the volcanic archipelago of Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland. In this oblique aerial photograph taken in late 

January 1973, tephra falls and lava flows have already begun to bury or to burn buildings in the eastern 

part of the fishing port of Vestmannaeyjar. Approximately one-third of the town was destroyed by the 

time the eruption ceased in early July 1973. Photograph credit: Landvernd, Reykjavik, Iceland. 

Photographer: Sigurjon Einarsson (no. 9 in the slide set "Myndun og Motun Landsins," Skyggnur 

Landverndar 2). B, Poverty intensifies geologic disasters. In this village, all the adobe structures were 

destroyed by the 1976 Guatemala earthquake, whereas more modern structures showed little damage. 

Photograph by Samuel Bonis, Institute Geografico Nacional, Guatemala. C, Drought in northeastern 

Brazil. Photograph by Gordon Gahan, National Geographic Society. D, Guajiro Indians harvesting 

sun-dried salt at Manaure, Colombia the last unmechanized flats of the national salt industry. 

Photograph by Loren Mclntyre, National Geographic Society. E, Laying an oil pipeline in Colombia. 

Photograph by Loren Mclntyre, National Geographic Society. F, The first geothermal well on Federal 

land, at Geysers geothermal field, northern California.

UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE : 1982
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UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 

JAMES G. WATT, Secretary

GEOLOGICAL SURVEY 

Dallas L. Peck, Director

Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data

Main entry under title:

Resources for the twenty-first century.

(Geological Survey professional paper ; 1193)

Bibliography: p.

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 19.16:1193

1. Earth sciences - Congresses. 2. Natural resources-Congresses. I. Whitmore, Frank C. II. Williams, M. E. (Mary Ellen),

1939- . III. United States Geological Survey. IV. Series. 

QE1.R184 550 81-607839 AACR2

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, 

U.S. Government Printing Office 

Washington, D.C. 20402
Foreword

In observance of its hundredth-year anniversary, the United States Geological 

Survey sponsored the International Centennial Symposium: Resources for the 

Twenty-first Century, held at its National 

Center in Reston, Virginia, between October 14 and 19, 1979. Papers were presented by fifty-six invited speakers from 

twenty-four countries and nine international agencies. In the course of the Symposium sessions, invited discussion leaders 

presented their comments, which were 

followed by discussion from the floor.

The concept of an international symposium was enthusiastically supported by 

Director H. William Mena.d. The Symposium program was defied, and the 

speakers were selected, by the International Activities Committee of the 

Geological Survey, under the chairmanship of John A. Reinemund with the

guidance of Assistant Director James R. 

Balsley. Each speaker was assigned a subject, but was free to develop it as seemed 

appropriate. Thus the papers presented 

here reflect a wide variety of approaches 

and points of view and, not surprisingly, 

some differences of opinion.

The formal comments of the discussion 

leaders were prepared after reading advance copies of the papers. In addition to 

these, we present transcripts of panel 

discussions and discussions from the 

floor. The latter have been edited to give 

continuity and to emphasize the most pertinent points. These transcriptions have 

been read by their authors after editing.

In preparing the papers for publication it 

has been necessary, of course, to introduce 

some formality into their organization. We 

have, however, tried to retain the individuality of expression and the atmosphere of informal exchange of information that prevailed during the 

Symposium.

We are grateful to the speakers for their 

contributions, which add up to a broad 

and thoughtful look at the resource problems that face us. The task of many 

authors was made more difficult by our request that their papers be presented in 

English, and we thank them for their 

gracious acceptance of this.

We thank George Cohee, George Ericksen, Walter Hays, Delia Laura, Charles 

Masters, and Morris Thompson for technical review of papers in their fields of 

specialization. We are indebted to Patrice 

LaLiberte, who has contributed her 

knowledge at all stages of the work, from 

copy editing to book design.

Frank C. Whitmore, Jr. 

Mary Ellen Williams 

Editors

Foreword iii
TABLE OF CONTENTS

SCOPE OF EARTH-SCIENCE CHALLENGES FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY 

The International Centennial Symposium: Background and Objectives 2

Frank C. Whitmore, Jr.

Welcoming Remarks: Interdependence of Nations and the Influence of Resources Estimates 

on Government Policy 3

H. William Menard

Figure 1 Petroleum reserves and national policy 4

2 Crude oil discovered in the United States per foot of exploratory drilling, 1860-1971 6

3 Hubbert versus Zapp forecasts and consequences 7

4 History, forecasts, and random drilling models 7

5 Success rate as a function of new field size 8

6 Size distribution of oil fields 9

Greetings from the National Academy of Sciences 11

Philip Handler

Major Challenges and Opportunities for National Geoscience Programs 

A Brazilian Viewpoint 15

J. R. de Andrade Ramos

Mineral Resources for the Twenty-first Century: Challenges and Opportunities 

An Indonesian Viewpoint 19

Soetaryo Sigit

Figure 1 Map of the Republic of Indonesia superimposed on the map of the United States of America 23

Table 1 Production of main mineral commodities in Indonesia 26

2 Revenues from Indonesian minerals export compared with Indonesian export totals 27

Discussion 29

D. J. McLaren 

Pierre Laffitte

iv Resources for the Twenty-first Century
PROBLEMS AND REQUIREMENTS FOR IDENTIFYING, EXPLORING, AND 

DEVELOPING RESOURCES

Selected Resources Problems of Underdeveloped Nations, and Suggested Solutions 33

Samuel Bonis

Figure 1 Village struck by 1976 Guatemala earthquake 33

2 1976 Guatemala earthquake properly constructed village schoolhouse was not damaged 34

3 1976 Guatemala earthquake widespread destruction of adobe houses; modern construction did 

not collapse 34

4 1974 eruption of Volcan Fuego, Guatemala 36

5 Karst in northern Guatemala, tropical rain forest 37

The Outlook from Korea on Resources for the Twenty-first Century 38

Byung Koo Hyun

Figure 1 Supply and demand of metallic minerals in Korea, 1965-1978 38

2 Trends of energy supply and demand in Korea, 1962-1978 39

3 Growth rate of Korea's GNP and industrial development, 1955-1975 39

4 Estimated major mineral resources in Korea, as of December 1978 39

5 Estimated nonmetallic mineral resources in Korea, as of December 1978 39

6 Topographic map of Korea 41

Discussion 44

W. C. Overstreet

Figure 1 Devastated village on fault break of 1976 Guatemala earthquake 45

An Overview of Problems and Requirements for Identifying, Exploring, and Developing 

Resources The Outlook from Venezuela 46

Henrique J. Lavie

Figure 1 Sedimentary basins of the natural gas and coal reserves in Venezuela 47

Problems and Requirements for Identifying, Exploring, and Developing Resources The 

Outlook from Egypt 52

G. A. Moustafa

Figure 1 Relief map of Egypt 53

2 Geologic map of Egypt 54

3 Resources map of Egypt 57

Discussion and Comments from the Floor 58

C. Guillemin 

Samuel Bonis 

Y. Shimazaki

Contents v
OPPORTUNITIES AND PERSPECTIVES IN SURVEYING, MAPPING, AND CARTOGRAPHY

Surveying: Status and Further Development 61

Eliz Lundin and Carl-Olof Ternryd

Figure 1 The observer as a record keeper 62

2A The observer in direct sound contact with the record keeper 63

2B The position of the plotted point can immediately be compared graphically with the theoretical 

	position 63

3 Sound recording of the field data recording on sound tape cassette tape recorder connected to 

	headset 64

4 Recording on sound tape via the telecommunications network 65

5 Radio transmission of data 66

6 Data storage on cassette tape 67

7 Datastack connected to HP 9820 67

8/4 Semi-automatic systems surveying unit with connected datastack 68

SB AGA Geodat 120 connections 69

9 Semi-automatic system, Wild TC 1 70

10/4 Semi-automatic system, Kern El/2 71

10.fi The Kern DM501 and a datastack attached to the Kern electronic theodolite 71

11 Semi-automatic system, Zeiss Elta-2 and the manual registration system Elta-4 72

12^4 Geodimeter 710 connected via a cable to a desk top computer and an XY plotter 73

\2B A specially made boat equipped with instrumentation for measuring seismic reflections within

	predetermined alignments 73 

13 Geodimeter 710 connected to a desk top computer via coded radio communication 74

Discussion 76 

Willis F. Roberts

Cartography Today 77

J. A. Villasana L.

Discussion 79

Lewis John Harris

Satellite Data Systems 82

G. Konecny

Figure 1 Digitally processed Landsat scene of the Washington, D.C. (U.S.A.) area magnified to about 

1:200,000 84

2 Equivalent image (see fig. 1) from Skylab with increased resolution 85

3 Landsat scene microscopic enlargement to 1:25,000 processed to limit on the laser recorder 85

4 Same scene (see fig. 3) at 1:25,000 from Skylab 85

5 Image of Cape Canaveral, Florida (U.S.A.) demonstrates relatively higher resolution achieved by 

Landsat 3 86

vi Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Satellite Data Systems Continued

Figure 6 Seasat radar image of Lake Geneva, Switzerland (portion at scale of 1:500,000) 86

7 Enlargement of a superior Goodyear GEMO 1,000 aircraft radar image of Phoenix, Arizona 

(U.S.A.) (at 1:160,000) 86

8 Enlargement of the Phoenix, Arizona, image to about 1:30,000 87

9 Radar image of Mont Blanc region 87

Table 1 Meteorological satellites 83

2 Land observation satellites 83

3 U.S. military reconnaissance satellites 83

4 History of manned missions: space photography of the Earth since 1965 84

5 U.S. remote sensing programs from space 87

6 Other countries' remote sensing programs from space 88

7 European Space Agency remote sensing programs from space 88

8 Spacelab camera mission 88

9 Microwave experiment for Spacelab mission 88

10 European Space Agency plans for earth resources programs 88

1 1 The Atlas program 89

12 Performance specifications for the Atlas program 89

Discussion 91 

F. J. Doyle

Opportunities and Perspectives in Digital Mapping and Automated Cartography 92

J. M. Zarzycki

Figure 1 Feature attributes as classified by the Canadian Topographic Survey 93

2 Classification of map features in digital topographic data base system 94

3 Wild B-8 with interactive digiting and editing unit 95

4 Operator console of Gestalt Photomapper GPM-2 95

5 Interactive cartographic editing station 96

Discussion 97 

Ernst Spiess

Panel Discussion 98

CHALLENGES AND PROBLEMS CONCERNING ENERGY RESOURCES 

Sufficient Energy Raw Materials for Everyone? 104

F. Bender

Figure 1 Estimates of world fossil energy resources 105

2 World distribution of fossil energy resources and reserves 106

3 Regional distribution of fossil energy fuels 107

Contents vii
Sufficient Energy Raw Materials for Everyone? Continued

Figure 4 World coal resources and reserves 107

5 World coal production from 1950 to 2000 108

6 World oil reserves, and annual and cumulative production from 1950 to 1978 108

7 Regional distribution of world oil resources and reserves 109

8 Regional distribution of world natural gas resources and reserves 110

9 Estimates of world oil shale and tar sand resources 111

10 Estimates of world uranium resources 112

11 Uranium production 1950 to 1978 (market economies and developing countries) 112

12 Geothermal energy figure for 1978 and projections for 2000 113

Table 1 Global resources and reserves of fossil fuels as estimated for the 1980 World Energy Conference 106 

2 Regional distribution of fossil fuels 106

An International View of Nuclear Raw Materials (Uranium) 115 

J. Cameron

Figure 1 Growth of reasonably assured uranium resources from 1965 to 1979 116

2 Technical assistance provided by IAEA to developing countries from 1959 through 1979 118

3 Organization of INTURGEO data files 120

4 lUREP-selected developing countries with good potential for uranium 124

Table 1 Estimates of WOCA uranium as reasonably assured resources, as of mid-1979 117

2 Estimated additional resources of WOCA uranium as expected occurrences, as of mid-1979 117

3 Speculative uranium resources listed by continent, excluding People's Republic of China and the 

eastern part of USSR 122

4 Speculative world uranium resources listed by category 122

Discussion 132

H. S. Alpan 

V. E. McKelvey

Problems of Energy Development in India During the Twenty-first Century 135 

T. N. Basu

Figure 1 Location of major workable coal and lignite fields of India 136

2 Sedimentary basins of India 137

3 Hydroelectric resources 139

Table 1 Known quantities of nonrenewable and renewable commercial energy sources in India, 1978 135

2 Estimated hydroelectric potential of India by region 138

3 Production figures for commercial energy in India, from 1973 to 2000 141

4 Estimates of nonrenewable resources available in India for the 21st century 142

World Oil Resources: Their Assessment and Potential for the Twenty-first Century 145 

Michel Grenon

Figure 1 Potential world oil production curve 145

2 Comparison of reserves and resources 146

3 Estimates of world oil resources 1946 1978 146

4 Evolution of estimates of ultimate world oil resources 147

5 Source relationships between oil resources estimates 148

viii Resources for the Twenty-first Century
World Oil Resources: Their Assessment and Potential for the 

Twenty-first Century Continued

Figure 6 Main findings of the WEC-DELPHI study 1977 148

7 Analysis of answers to DELPHI 149

8 World oil resources remaining to be produced (DELPHI) 149

9 Ultimate oil recovery in U.S.A. and Canada 149

10 Regional distribution of DELPHI estimates 150

11 Fossil fuel reserves and resources 150

12 Estimate of heavy crude and tar sand reserves 151

13 Lloydminster-area heavy oils 151

14 Known oil shale resources of the world land areas 151

15 Estimates of oil shale resources by country 152

16 The three paths to costly oil 152

17 World rig activity (excluding socialist areas) in 1978 153

18 Number of rigs by regions and by estimated size 153

19 Free world total exploratory well completions 153

20 World oil supply curve, according to DELPHI (1977) 154

Discussion 157

Bernardo F. Grossling

Comments from the Floor 158

The Growing Oil Scarcity and the Challenge of Future Discoveries 159 

Ahmed Zaki Yamani

CHALLENGES AND PROBLEMS CONCERNING MINERAL RESOURCES 

Organizing a National Assessment of Mineral Resources 163

Carlos Ruiz F.

Mineral Industry of Pakistan 168

S. A. Bilgrami

Figure 1 Map of Pakistan showing known mineral deposits of economic importance 170

2 Geological map of Pakistan 176

3 Index map of Pakistan showing mineral deposits of probable economic significance 177

Table 1 Proven reserves of minerals in Pakistan as of 1970 168

2 Production of selected minerals from 1971-72 to 1977-78 169

3 Principal minerals exported 169

4 Selected analyses of barite 171

5 Chemical composition of Pakistani chromites selected to show range of composition 172

6 Chemical composition of Pakistani coals 172

Discussion 179

C. Nishiwaki

C. W. Sweetwood

Contents ix
Preliminary Study of Mineral Resources of Latin America 183

G. P. Salas

Table 1 Production of metallic minerals in Latin America for 1976, 1977, or 1978 184

2 Production of nonmetallic minerals in Latin America for 1976, 1977, or 1978 186

3 Metallic mineral reserves in Latin America for 1978 188

4 Nonmetallic mineral reserves in Latin America for 1978 188

5 Mines in Latin America producing more than 150,000 tons of ore per year 190

Exploring and Evaluating Seabed Resources: The Experience of the Committee for Coordination of Joint Prospecting for Mineral Resources in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP) 192

A. Johannas

Table 1 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration in East Asia before 1965 193

2 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Republic of Korea 194

3 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Indonesia 194

4 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Japan 195

5 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Kampuchea 195

6 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Malaysia 195

7 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Thailand 196

8 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, The Philippines 196

9 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Viet-Nam 196

Discussion 201

R. N. Richmond, Jr. 

£. Davin

World Nonfuel Mineral Supply: The Outlook as We Approach the Twenty-first Century 203

John D. Morgan

Figure 1 World production figures for steel, cement, copper, and aluminum 204 

2 Melting points of various elements 206

Table 1 World production of iron, steel, aluminum, and copper in 1978 203

2 Twelve major nonfuel minerals 205

3 1978 U.S. consumption of metals whose corrosion resistance is a major factor in their selection by 

industry 206

4 Basic stockpile materials in the United States 208

5 Comparison of world cumulative primary mineral demand forecasts, 1976 2000, with world 

identified recoverable mineral reserves 209

x Resources for the Twenty-first Century
WA TER AND PEOPLE

Philippine Water Resources Policies: An Appraisal 213

Angel A. Alejandrino

The Legal and Administrative Implications of the Hydrological Cycle and Water-related 

Resources Facing the Twenty-first Century 218

Guillermo J. Cano

Droughts and Floods 223

J. P. Bruce

Figure 1 Prairie provinces of Canada 224

2 Location of studies of the Souris, Qu'Appelle, and Okanagan River basins 226

3 The Mackenzie River basin 228

4 Example of a flood-plain map 229

Panel Discussion 231

GEOLOGIC HAZARDS

Earthquake Hazards, and Requirements for Their Mitigation in the Andean Region 239 

A. A. Giesecke

Figure 1 Preliminary map of earthquakes in Peru from 1471 to 1974 241

2 Seismic map of Peru, locating events from 1900 to 1976 242

3 Seismic zoning map of Peru 243

4 Area seismic risk predictions for the Department of Lima in Peru 245

5 View of part of the upthrust visible for about 800 meters along the Huaytapallana fault 246

6 Rock displacement visible after the 1969 Huaytapallana earthquake in Peru 246

An Earthquake Research Programme in Turkey 248

Nezihi Canitez

Figure 1 Earthquake damage in eastern Turkey 248

2 Locations of earthquake epicenters in Turkey 250

3 Morphology of the North Anatolian and Caldiran faults 252

4 Location map of the seismic instrumentation in Turkey 254

Contents xi
Volcano Hazards Lessons Learned in the Eastern Caribbean 256 

Richard S. Fiske

Figure 1 Oblique aerial view of the summit of La Soufriere, Guadeloupe, August 1976 256

2 Street scene of the totally evacuated capital city of Basse Terre, Guadeloupe, August 1976 257

3 Vertical eruption cloud from the summit of Soufriere volcano, St. Vincent, April 22, 1979 258

4 River valley on west slope of Soufriere, St. Vincent, that was devastated by the repeated passage 

of hot avalanches and mud flows 259

The International, Multidisciplinary Approach to Earthquake Hazard Reduction 261 

Robert E. Wallace

Assessment of Earthquake Prediction in Seismic Hazard Reduction Problems 263 

Keichi Kasahara

Figure 1 Seismic events and prediction success 263

2 Disastrous earthquakes and loss of lives from earthquake hazards in Japan 264

3 Population in Tokyo, Japan, since 1850 264

4 Annual budgets for earthquake prediction work in Japan 265

5 The merit factor £ as a function of pi, p2 , l/L, andf/L 265

Urban Development in Relation to Earthquakes, Landslides, and Unstable Ground 266 

I. L. Nersesov and F. F. Aptikaev

Figure 1 Some earthquake characteristics versus magnitude 267

2 A, General seismic zoning map of central Asia (intensity zones); B, Detailed seismic zoning map 

of southeast part of central Asia (seismogenic faults) 268

3 Expected predominant period of acceleration for California earthquakes 269

4 Maximum intensities experienced throughout the 48 conterminous States of the United States 

from 1928 through 1973 270

5 Preliminary map of expected horizontal acceleration for the 48 conterminous States of the United 

States 271

Geologic Hazards and Man 273 

John R. Rapp

Panel Discussion 274

xii Resources for the Twenty-first Century
GEOLOGIC FACTORS AND THE ENVIRONMENT

Environmental Problems and Geoscientific International Cooperation 277 

Martin O. C. Kursten

Construction Materials and Ground Water: Important Subjects for Applied Geological 

Research in Developing Countries 280

B. P. Hageman

Figure 1 A simplified example of a geological pattern in a coastal plain 280 

2 A schematic profile in the same area 281

Application of Earth Sciences to Land-use Problems in the United States with Emphasis on 

the Role of the U.S. Geological Survey 283

Donald R. Nichols

Environmental Mapping in India 292

M. V. N. Murthy

Figure 1 Map of India with Sikkim, Bhutan, Jammu, and Kashmir 293

The Australian Approach to Environmental Mapping 298

C. S. Christian

Figure 1 Map showing major areas of agriculture and managed forests in Australia 298

2 Some land surface evolution sequences (diagrammatic) 303

3 Central Australian landscape (diagrammatic) 304

4 A typical sequence of land systems in the lowlands of the Alligator River region, Northern Territory, Australia 306

5 Brock's Creek foothill land system, Northern Territory, Australia 306

6 Baker land system, Northern Territory, Australia 307

7 Cyperus land system, Northern Territory, Australia 308

8 Stereo pair of photographs of the Cully I, Effington I, and Levee land systems in the Alligator 

River region, Northern Territory, Australia 309

Contents xiii
Sidelooking Airborne Radar as a Tool for Natural Resources Mapping The Brazilian Approach 317

O. Bittencourt

Figure 1 Natural resources mapping sequence and methods 317

2 Radar image and infra-red aerial photo taken simultaneously 318

3 Tertiary and Quaternary cover in radar image 319

4 A complex area to be mapped 320

5 Different types of major units of vegetation in the Amazon region 321

6 Emphasis on the relief is one of the advantages of the radar image 321

7 Main physiographic aspects of an area of 240,000 square kilometers 322

8 Clearing opened to allow the technicians to make field observations in inaccessible regions 322

9 The use of helicopters turned out to be the only way to reach inaccessible localities 323

10 Indian house in Amazon region 323

11 Knowledge of the Indian customs helped in suggesting how to live in harmony with the forest 323

12 Portion of radar image to be compared with the thematic maps in figures 13-18 324

13 Geological map of the area of figure 12 324

14 Geomorphological map of the area of figure 12 324

15 Soil map of the area of figure 12 324

16 Suitability for agriculture map of the area of figure 12 325

17 Phytoecological (vegetation) map of the area of figure 12 325

18 Potential land use map of the area of figure 12 325

19 Circular structures mapped in Amazon 326

20 Circular structure (carbonatite) discovered during the mapping survey 327

21 Circular structure associated with a graben shown by radar image 327

22 Geomorphologic units of the Amazon based on RADAM survey 328

23 Potential timber exploration map of Amazon 329

24 Very unstable area where dense forest lies over sandy soil 330

25 Areas of unstable ecosystems that require preservation 331

26 Natural "shoulders" that can be used if a dam must be constructed in this area 332

27 Areas of great risk of erosion (plateau border) 332

28 Comparison between radar image and magnetometric map 333

29 Accessibility map 333

30 Planimetric information overprinted on radar image 334

Comments from the Floor 336 

PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE 

New Opportunities for Geologists 339

Philip H. Abelson

Figure 1 Regional map showing site of dive by the submersible Alvin in March 1979 339 

Earth History as Moral Science 343

R. Triimpy

xiv Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The usual standards for the U.S. Geological 

Survey Professional Paper series have been 

modified to accommodate the variety of styles 

used by the participants in this symposium.

Contents xv
xvi Resources for the Twenty-first Century
World: Political / Erde: Politisch / Mundo: Politico 

Monde: Politique / Mundo: Politico

Map showing countries represented by speakers and delegations 

at International Centennial Symposium, United States Geological 

Survey. Adapted from Political World Map (Robinson projection), copyright by Rand McNally & Company, R. L. 80-Y-70.
Scope of Earth-Science Challenges for 

the Twenty-first Century

The International Centennial Symposium: 

Background and Objectives

Frank C. Whitmore, Jr.

U.S. Geological Survey

Welcome to the United States Geological Survey. We 

are happy that you have come to help us celebrate our hundredth year, for it is your presence that gives this occasion 

more than a mere symbolic meaning.

As Geological Surveys go, we are not ancient; many of 

you represent organizations that are older than ours. But 

the hundred years of our existence have been among the 

most challenging and unsettling in all of history, not least 

in the changing relations or changing of awareness of 

relations between Man and his Earth.

The United States Geological Survey was founded because of the desire of our people to know what the lands of 

our West were like. The motivation was pragmatic; we 

were an expanding Nation that foresaw the need for 

knowledge of agricultural land and mineral products as 

well as of the topography of country to be traversed by 

road and rail. The methods of survey were not new: the 

USGS was an extension of earlier Government surveys, 

which in turn drew on the experience of the older surveys 

of Europe, and upon our own State Surveys, many of 

which predate the USGS.

In the past century, the Survey's activities have, naturally, changed with the interests and needs of our country. We have gone from exploration to detailed mapping, 

from simple to complex analytical procedures; we study 

commodities unheard of a century ago. An important part 

of our work today deals with our environment: our effect 

upon it and its effect on us. We are proud that for us this is 

no new concern: our second Director, John Wesley 

Powell, was similarly aware of the environment, often to 

the point of enraging his opponents and this still goes on, 

I'm sure. But Powell, though a prophet, was limited in 

scope to his own country. Earlier in our history, as in the 

Wilkes Expedition of 1838-1842, the United States had 

undertaken exploration outside our borders. But the opening of our West to settlement, and our ignorance of that

vast area, dictated that the new Geological Survey concentrate its efforts within the United States. The little-known 

West had already produced gold and silver, and the impetus to further mineral exploration was great.

In the developing countries at that time, of which the 

United States was one, there was a tendency to regard 

resources as limitless; all we had to do was find them.

In the last hundred years, by contrast, we have become 

aware of the finite nature of our resources and of the 

degree to which the world environment affects us all 

without regard for national boundaries. Thus, interdependence became the theme for this symposium. 

Earth scientists must furnish the information on which 

planning for the future depends. Our interdependence is 

thus intellectual: we must share our ideas, which gain value 

because they have been developed under such widely different conditions and in so many parts of the world.

In this symposium we will look into the future together 

through the eyes of experienced and thoughtful speakers. 

It is our hope that the papers presented will form the basis 

for discussion both formal and informal, not only this 

week but in future, as we face the Twenty-first Century 

together.

We all owe thanks to John A. Reinemund, and the International Activities Committee of the U.S. Geological 

Survey, for originating and organizing this program.

Frank C. Whitmore, Jr. 

U.S. Geological Survey 

National Museum of

Natural History, E-501 

Smithsonian Institution 

Washington, D.C. 20560

2 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Welcoming Remarks: Interdependence of 

Nations and the Influence of Resources 

Estimates on Government Policy

H. William Menard

Director, United States Geological Survey

It is my pleasure as Director to welcome you to this International Centennial Symposium, and to express the 

hope that all of you will find your stay both pleasant and 

productive. My 14,000 associates and I are delighted and 

highly honored that you have come here from all parts of 

the world to attend this symposium convened in observance of the U.S. Geological Survey's one hundred years of 

probing the mysteries of this small planet that we all share. 

We are glad you can be with us!

By my count, we have 44 countries on six continents 

represented here this morning. You are delegates of more 

than 3,000 million people living on 37 million square miles 

(96 million square kilometers) of the Earth's crust. The 

dimensions of our discussions are thus truly global in 

scope; the topics we shall address transcend the boundaries 

and concerns of individual states. Shared knowledge and 

cooperative action will be required to solve the common 

problems that beset us as we contemplate the demands that 

will be made upon the earth sciences in the coming century.

The notion of interdependence in scientific matters is 

not new. No individual or nation has a monopoly of scientific truth on any subject, and for centuries the exchange of 

knowledge among scientists living in all parts of the world 

has been one of the great unifying forces of civilization. 

Thus the U.S. Geological Survey has from its very beginning entertained an active interest in earth science matters 

throughout the world, as evidenced by the innumerable exchanges between our scientists and their contemporaries in 

other countries through correspondence, visits, meetings, 

and the flow of literature.

In recent years we have institutionalized many of our 

relationships with scientists and scientific groups in other 

countries on a government-to-government basis, so that we 

now have agreements of one sort or another covering our 

services to more than a hundred countries. Some of these 

relationships have continued to flourish long after the occasion that brought them into being has faded into history. 

They have done so in part because of the demonstrated 

benefits that accrued to all parties to such arrangements, 

and lately, I submit, because of a gathering sense of apprehension over the continued availability of mineral 

resources that plainly will be needed by the world's growing human community.

That human community to which we all belong has 

grown from 2,500 million in 1950 to 4,200 million 

today an increase of 70 percent. But of much more 

significance, the material demands of our community have 

grown even faster. World trade has increased by 570 percent; world energy production has increased more than 

five-fold on a tonnage basis; the value of manufactures, 

mostly of mineral origin, is today more than ten times 

what it was in 1950; and real prices of raw materials have 

been rising since the middle of the last decade.

These numbers have a sinister look about them. But 

the world has repeatedly been frightened before by the 

specter of scarcity, particularly in the case of exhaustible 

resources, only to discover its forebodings to be groundless 

as shortages regularly gave way to surpluses just when it 

appeared that only lean years lay ahead. Still, there remains the troubling reality that minerals are finite, coupled 

with the knowledge that in the 35 years since the close of 

World War II man has consumed more minerals than in all 

his previous history. The outlook is for continued increases 

in demand while we are having difficulties in supplying current requirements. Thus intense interest has focused on the 

future prospects of many mineral commodities. Specifically we are interested in knowing how much of each commodity we may plausibly expect beyond the supplies that 

are presently visible as proved or economically producible 

reserves. More to the point, we need to know how much is 

likely to be available under specified economic and technical conditions, both from known subeconomic sources

Interdependence of Nations 3
and from sources yet to be discovered. We also need to 

have some indication of the confidence with which such 

estimates are made.

The answers to these questions are firmly embedded in 

a complicated matrix of economic, technological, political, 

legal, and logistical conditions that require the application 

of a broad range of professional skills to obtain a proper 

understanding and evaluation. Geology is only one of 

these contributing disciplines, but its role is critical. The 

entire process begins with the geological estimate of 

resources in place and the geological interpretation of the 

nature and circumstances of their occurrence. Until 

something is known about the magnitude and quality of a 

mineral resource, and where and how it might be found, 

no useful calculation can be made as to the amount that 

may eventually become available for use, the rate at which 

it can be produced, or what its cost and value may be.

As I have already mentioned, attempts to estimate the 

extent of undiscovered mineral resources have been made 

from time to time by a variety of methods, many of which 

ranked somewhere between tea leaves and Tarot cards in 

their effectiveness as forecasting tools. Until recently these 

predictive deficiencies have not mattered greatly because 

the prevailing market condition for most commodities 

most of the time has been one of surplus. Thus the conclusion expressed by the U.S. Geological Survey's Chief 

Geologist in 1920 that crude oil production in this country 

would probably never reach as much as 450 million barrels 

(60 million tonnes) annually was quickly mooted because 

with a yield of 472 million barrels (65 million tonnes) production handily exceeded that figure in the very next year 

(White, 1920).

But the signs of scarcity have now been with us long 

enough to warrant serious attempts to ascertain the remaining stocks of the world's mineral resources the 

energy minerals in particular. We need to do this because 

governments tend to formulate policies based on perceptions about the relative abundance of vital resources. 

These policies aim at forcing or inducing specific events to 

happen in regard to exploration for particular resources, 

substitution of one material for another, conservation and 

re-use, and other actions that can have profound impacts 

on resource costs, life styles, and the physical environment not to mention the relationships between the 

government and its citizens. The policies can be only as 

good as the perceptions on which they are based, and the 

perceptions in turn can be only as good as the estimates of 

resource availability and cost from which they are formed.

The history of oil development in the United States 

provides a number of examples of how varying perceptions 

about the state of the nation's oil reserves have 

guided and misguided national policy toward oil for 

the past seventy-five years (fig. 1).

Pre-Embargo

Naval Petroleum Reserves

Oil Import 

Quotas

Domestic

Allowables

/ "Acute Unlimited" Perceptions,' Shortages Reserves

of Reserves' Ahead

Post Embargo

Acute \ 

Shortages j 

-* Ahead /

 Actual Reserves

-Offshore and Alaska 

Onshore 48

1860 1900

Figure 1 Petroleum reserves and national policy.

The first noticeable perception, formed in the early 

years of the present century, was the familiar one of looming shortages. It was induced by a combination of factors, 

including the boom-and-bust cycle of individual field production, the lack of credible data on how much oil remained and where it might be found, and the visibly rising 

demand for oil as a source of heat and power. This period 

of apprehension lasted for about 15 years from 1908, 

when it was widely publicized at a White House conference 

of State Governors called by President Theodore Roosevelt (1908, p. 7-8) until after 1920, by which time the 

petroleum industry began to find so much oil that the 

prophets of doom were eventually drowned in the surplus 

that accumulated. But during this interval it appeared that 

no one outside the petroleum industry (which knew better) 

could bring himself to believe that the nation's oil supplies 

could possibly last for more than a few more years.

Meanwhile, unbeknown to anyone at the time because 

data were then unavailable, reserves obtained as the difference between cumulative discoveries and cumulative 

production continued to rise briskly; paradoxically, the 

higher they rose the gloomier became the forecasts of the 

estimators. And small wonder, for the true extent of the oil 

that would ultimately be found in the already-discovered 

fields would not, and could not, be known for many years. 

Contemporary estimates (1920 to 1940) were made before 

subsequent drilling extended field limits and found new 

pools within existing limits, and before new technology 

vastly increased the recoverable fraction of oil in the 

ground. Estimators naturally fell far short of crediting the 

fields then known with the full potential they would later

4 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
develop. It was not until relatively recently with the 

benefit of many years of history that it became possible 

to know, for example, that ultimately recoverable oil from 

fields discovered by 1920 exceeded cumulative production 

to that point by 30,000 million barrels (4,100 million 

tonnes) and that accordingly a "reserve," partly actual but 

mostly potential, had thereby been created. This level was 

about 70 times the volume of oil actually produced in 1920.

But, with the valor of ignorance, government policy 

reflected the pessimism of the estimators. Even as the hidden reserves of oil continued to grow, the Federal government set aside four large areas of public lands to be maintained as petroleum reserves for the use of the Navy in the 

period of expected scarcity (fig. 1). In 1912 Naval 

Petroleum Reserves Numbers 1 and 2 were created in 

California; in 1915, Reserve Number 3 in Wyoming; in 

1923, Reserve Number 4 in Alaska; on April 5, 1976 

(Public Law 94-258, U.S. 94th Congress), Reserve Number 

4 was designated the National Petroleum Reserve in 

Alaska (NPRA). On June 1, 1977 it was transferred by the 

Congress from the Department of the Navy to the Department of the Interior for exploration, appraisal, and 

development. During these same years, U.S. tax laws were 

amended to provide incentives to explore for new reserves, 

permitting, for example, the deduction of a percentage of 

gross income as an allowance for depletion and the expensing of intangible drilling costs. American oil companies 

were also encouraged to go abroad in their search for new 

supplies in other parts of the world. The result was that by 

1930 oil was in surplus everywhere and the principal oilproducing states found it expedient to adopt a system of 

market sharing among oil producers. This system was 

based on allowable production rates for each well, along 

with other measures aimed at stabilizing prices and preventing physical and economic waste.

Despite these attempts to control production, the oil 

glut prevailed, subsidized ironically by the percentage 

depletion allowance and by the drilling and production 

regulations that encouraged the acquisition of excessive 

productive capacity even more than the addition of new 

reserves. This was the situation until well into World War 

II, when the greatly expanded demand for petroleum products finally ate away the surplus. It was quickly restored by 

renewed exploration and development following the war, 

and the difficulty was soon compounded by the appearance of large volumes of low-priced oil on the world 

market, much of it from the vast newly-opened fields of 

the Middle East.

Once again the country was awash in surplus oil, and 

the State allocations imposed on domestic production were 

supplemented in 1959 by Federal quotas levied on oil imports. In the name of national security, it was argued, the 

Nation could not afford to become excessively dependent

on foreign oil. Better to protect the market for high cost oil 

produced at home and thus preserve a vigorous industry 

that could be depended upon to supply all future needs 

from the vast undiscovered resources yet to be tapped in 

our own country.

Even as this argument was being made, however, the 

premises on which it was based were steadily eroding. Production had begun to outpace discoveries by 1941, and 

reserves, defined earlier as the difference between the two, 

had begun a long decline that was not publicly recognized 

until 1970, when domestic production reached capacity 

and thereafter began to decline. The State-imposed allocations disappeared, as did oil import quotas, and three years 

later the shock of the Arab oil embargo, combined with the 

obvious and growing shortages of both domestic oil and 

gas, finally brought public perception back full circle to the 

apprehensions of shortage that had been widespread a half 

century before.

Thus, for better or worse, national policy toward 

mineral resources is shaped by estimates that must be made 

of quantities that can neither be seen nor measured, and 

much confusion has resulted from the fact that these 

estimates by highly respected professionals in the field frequently disagree by wide margins. Often these divergent 

conclusions can be reconciled by painstaking analysis, but 

generally not in terms that are especially useful in resolving 

the controversy or contributing much to public 

understanding of the differences.

One such imbroglio was the long-standing disagreement between the estimates of undiscovered petroleum 

potentials published by various U.S. Geological Survey 

scientists and those of Dr. M. King Hubbert, an acknowledged authority on petroleum matters. Ironically, Hubbert 

came to work for the Survey at the peak of the controversy 

between him and that agency, and continued in its employ 

until his retirement 13 years later. All the while he 

vigorously promoted his model and method against a succession of estimates made by his associates.

Hubbert's model hypothesized that the production and 

discovery history of an exhaustible resource such as 

petroleum roughly approximates a logistic curve, rising exponentially from zero to a peak, and thereafter declining 

exponentially back to zero. The path of this curve can be 

calculated once sufficient history has been acquired, and 

future production and discovery rates can be ascertained 

for every succeeding year to exhaustion. Ultimate production can be determined by measuring the area under the 

curve, and future discoveries can be ascertained by subtracting past production and current reserves from the 

total (Hubbert, 1962). The Hubbert model thus purports 

to include all factors technological, economic, social, 

and political that bear upon oil discovery and production 

through the complete cycle, from beginning to end.

Interdependence of Nations 5
The study done by Hubbert in 1962 for the National 

Academy of Sciences led him to conclude that approximately 175,000 million barrels (24,000 million tonnes) of 

crude oil would ultimately be produced from the United 

States and its continental shelves (excluding Alaska). Of 

this total, 99,000 million barrels (13,500 million tonnes) 

had already been discovered, leaving 76,000 million barrels 

(10,500 million tonnes) to be found in the future (Hubbert, 

1962, p. 72). A second model, developed in 1967 as a corollary to the first, described the rise and fall of crude oil 

discoveries per unit of exploratory drilling over the history 

of the petroleum industry in the lower 48 States of the 

United States (Hubbert, 1967). Figure 2 depicts the widely 

varying success rates experienced between 1860 and 1971.

The models of all the other Geological Survey scientists (except for the most recent study by Miller and others, 

1975) were patterned in one way or another after the 

hypothesis advanced by A.D. Zapp (1961). He related the 

volume of oil that would ultimately be discovered to the 

amount of drilling that would be necessary to test the entire area of the United States that is covered with sedimentary rock. This unpublished report to the National Research Council dealt only with the 1,860,000 square miles 

(4,560,000 square kilometers) of such rock in the United 

States and its continental shelves, exclusive of Alaska. 

Zapp estimated that some 5,000 million feet (1,525 million 

meters) of exploratory drilling would be required to test 

the area of sedimentary rock to an average density of 1 well 

for each 2 square miles (5.2 square kilometers). He further 

estimated that by 1960 some 130,000 million barrels 

(17,800 million tonnes) of crude oil had been discovered by 

a total of 1,100 million feet (335 million meters) of ex400- 

350- 

300- 

250- 

200- 

150- 

100- 

50-

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 

Cumulative Exploratory Footage (10& ft)

Figure 2 Crude oil discovered in the United States per foot of 

exploratory drilling, 1860-1971. (Success rates are given for only 

the lower 48 States.)

ploratory drilling completed as of that date, indicating that 

an average of 118 barrels per foot (53 tonnes per meter) 

had been discovered during the first hundred years of exploratory drilling in the United States. At this rate, drilling 

the full 5,000 million feet (1,525 million meters) could be 

expected to discover a total of 590,000 million barrels 

(81,000 million tonnes) of crude oil. According to Zapp's 

calculations, 300,000 million barrels (41,000 million 

tonnes) of those 590,000 million barrels would be economically recoverable and an additional 290,000 million barrels 

(40,000 million tonnes) were classified as submarginal 

under technological and economic conditions then existing 

(Hendricks, 1965).

Subtracting the 130,000 million barrels (17,800 million 

tonnes) already discovered from Zapp's 300,000 million 

total for economically recoverable oil left 170,000 million 

barrels (23,200 million tonnes) remaining to be discovered 

and produced in the future. Calculated on the assumption 

that the undrilled portions of the United States would 

prove equally as productive as the drilled areas, this 

amount was a multiple of the 76,000 million barrels 

(10,500 million tonnes) that Hubbert subsequently considered as remaining in the same area when he based his 

1962 study on calculations of exponentially declining 

discovery rates.

Figure 3 compares the two predicted discovery rates 

with each other and with the subsequent experience of the 

petroleum industry. Later modifications of Zapp's estimates and methodology made by Geological Survey scientists V.E. McKelvey and D.C. Duncan in 1963 and T.A. 

Hendricks in 1965 (which included Alaska) resulted in 

predictions of 200,000 and 300,000 million barrels (27,400 

and 41,000 million tonnes) of undiscovered recoverable 

crude oil, respectively (Hendricks, 1965). A later estimate 

made by S.P. Schweinfurth yielded a total (as of 1970) of 

350,000 million barrels (48,000 tonnes) of undiscovered 

recoverable petroleum resources. This revised estimate included figures on both the crude oil and natural gas liquids 

remaining to be found in the conterminous United States 

and their margins out to a water depth of 2,500 meters 

(Theobald and others, 1972). By March 26, 1974, the 

Survey had retreated substantially from Schweinfurth's 

high figure, giving a range of 145,000 to 290,000 million 

barrels (20,000 to 40,000 million tonnes) for undiscovered 

petroleum liquids yet to be found in the United States and 

its continental margins to a water depth of 200 meters 

(Department of the Interior, news release). The following 

year the Survey abandoned the Zapp approach and released the results of a systematic basin-by-basin assessment 

of recoverable oil content which further reduced the figures 

for undiscovered recoverable crude oil in the 48 conterminous States and their continental margins to a range of 

36,000 to 81,000 million barrels (4,900 and 11,000 million 

tonnes), with a mean value of 55,000 million barrels (7,500 

million tonnes) (Miller and others, 1975).

6 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
1960

Actual Discovery Rate

1977

Zapp(1961)

1 2 

Cumulative Exploratory Footage (h) x 109 ft

Figure 3 Hubbert vs. Zapp forecasts and consequences.

For all their differences, Hubbert's predictions and the 

divergent estimates of other Survey scientists have this 

much in common: both were concerned with gross 

amounts of recoverable oil believed to be contained in 

sedimentary rock in the area defined in the estimates. 

Neither dealt with the distribution of the oil by field size, 

or, except by implication, with the efficiency of the search 

effort directed to its discovery. Some worthwhile insights 

may be gained from analyses of these two factors.

Figure 4 presents a comparison of petroleum industry 

discovery experience with a random search under certain 

hypothetical conditions focusing on giant oil fields found 

in the onshore portion of the 48 conterminous United 

States. A giant field is determined in the United States to 

mean containing at least 100 million barrels (13.7 million 

tonnes) of ultimately recoverable oil. On figure 4, 

discovery success is plotted as an expression of the area of 

giant fields found per unit of exploration delineated in increments of 100,000,000 feet (30,500,000 meters) of exploratory drilling and named Hubbert Units after King 

Hubbert, who first devised these convenient units of 

measurement.

For the purpose of the exercise, the historical data on 

giant field discoveries were organized chronologically, so 

that the area of giant fields actually found could be ascertained for each successive Hubbert Unit. This was done 

throughout the full sequence of 14 units totalling 1,400 

million feet (427 million meters) that were drilled between 

1860 and the end of the series in 1963.

The heavy black line in figure 4 depicts actual 

discovery experience, while the shaded area represents the 

envelope formed by the results of ten computer simulations of random drilling over the same area as that actually 

prospected by the petroleum industry. Except for the first 

two Hubbert Units, the record of the industry and that of 

the random searches reveal similar patterns of discovery 

success. To this basic model are added varying assumptions about additional amounts of oil which might exist in 

the search area over and above the amount actually discovered. These values are represented by the four generally 

parallel lines near the top right-hand area in the figure. The 

values given are estimates for total undiscovered oil, projected from results obtained for giant fields and assuming 

that since giant-field discoveries have contained 58 percent 

of total oil found in the past, they will continue to do so in 

the future. Taking the bottom parallel line, for example, 

assume that 10,000 million barrels (1,370 million tonnes) 

of oil remained undiscovered at the end of the 14th Hubbert Unit. If 58 percent of this oil was contained in giant 

fields, a random drilling program would have discovered 

more area of giant fields than the industry actually did in 

each Hubbert Unit. The initial difference, say at the 4th 

Hubbert Unit, is relatively small: the random search would 

have discovered not quite twice as much area as industry. 

As the search proceeds, however, and as the number of remaining giant fields is reduced by discoveries, the difference widens rapidly so that the random search from 

Hubbert Units 9 to 12 would be at least twenty times as 

successful as the industry's record. If the remaining undiscovered oil were as much as 100,000 million barrels

100,000 -n

10,000.

1000-

100-

10-

Assuming 58% of Undiscovered Oil 

in Giant Fields

\100 x 1Q9 Barrels Undiscovered 

50x109

HISTORICAL 

SUCCESSES

Envelope

of Ten Random

Drilling Tests

7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

Hubbert Units

Figure 4 History, forecasts, and random drilling models. (In 

the United States, a giant field is defined as one containing at least 

100 million barrels of ultimately recoverable oil.)

Interdependence of Nations 7
(13,700 million tonnes), the random search would be some 

200 times as successful as the industry experience.

Since blind chance appears to do so much better than 

directed choice, one is tempted to conclude either that the 

giant fields implied by the postulated reserves do not exist, 

or that the industry is systemically looking for them in the 

wrong places. If the latter, then there must be social, 

political, and economic factors that counterbalance the industry's demonstrated technical capability for locating 

hydrocarbon traps. One conclusion that could be drawn 

from such a balance of influences is that the net effect of 

all professional effort comes to zero.

One reason (besides common sense) for believing that 

economic factors enter into exploration decisions is the differing discovery rates for different sized fields. Figure 5 

shows the varying discovery success rates for different 

sized fields expressed as the number of oil and gas fields 

discovered per 10 million feet (3.05 million meters) on new 

field wildcat drilling; that is, drilling directed at finding 

discrete new fields rather than at discovering new reserves 

in existing ones. The size classifications are those adopted 

by the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, 

which has recorded annual discoveries of each class since 

1945. (Discoveries are reported annually under "North 

American Developments," usually in the August issue of 

the AAPG Bulletin.) Class A fields are those expected to 

produce more than 50 million barrels (6.8 million tonnes) 

or 300,000 million cubic feet of gas (8,570 million cubic 

meters). Class B through Class E fields trend downward in 

capacity with Class E fields believed to contain less than 1 

million barrels (135,000 tonnes) of oil or 6,000 million 

cubic feet (170 million cubic meters) of gas. In figure 5, the 

discovery rate charted for each field class reveals its own 

pattern of behavior. The rates for A and B, the two largest 

classes, have declined irregularly since 1945, and steeply 

since 1971. The Class C field rate has declined at a somewhat lesser rate, while the decline in discovery rates of the 

two smallest classes has actually been reversed since 1970.

The discovery rates for the three largest classes follow 

the conventional pattern for exhaustible resources: each 

discovery removes one target from the search area, thereby 

reducing the chances for additional discoveries by one. 

Where the universe is already small, as it is in the case of 

the larger deposits, a few years of successful exploration 

depletes the number of available targets fairly rapidly. This 

depletion is reflected in relatively steep declines in exploratory success. Even the small classes of fields show this 

characteristic decline over long periods, but the rate is 

much slower because of the much larger population to be 

depleted.

The turnaround in 1970 reflects an external factor, 

presumably economics. By this time, the domestic surplus 

of oil and gas had given way to shortage, and prices for 

both oil and gas had begun to rise gradually at first, but

300

100

o> ro Q. o

Is

8.2

V) U.

5

0.1

1950 1960 1970 1980

Figure 5 Success rate as a function of new field size. (Oil and 

gas discovery rates are shown for the entire United States.)

then in an increasing tempo until the rocketing rise in 1974. 

Newly discovered oil began to sell for three times its 

previous (1970) wellhead value, and gas could bring ten 

times the price it commanded a few years earlier. The 

result was that a lot of wildcat wells that would otherwise 

have been plugged and abandoned as failures became 

worth completing. Thus each "re-activated" completion 

added a new field discovery in one of the two smallest 

classes.

Figure 6A presents another aspect of the distribution 

of total reserves by field size. The five areas selected all 

show a characteristic normal distribution: the greatest 

number of fields tends to clump about the middle of the 

size range for each category. For example, in the United 

States, where the size of fields ranges from the insignificant to the single 10,000-million-barrel (1,370-milliontonne) Prudhoe Bay field, the largest grouping of fields is 

that between 100,000 and 1,000,000 barrels (13,700 and 

137,000 tonnes) (area 2, fig. 6A). The limits at the high end 

are determined by geography and geology: these conspire 

to keep the number of very large fields to a few hundred

8 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
© World Giants 

© United States

Denver-Julesburg Basin

Montana

Ventura Pools

i i i i i i i

1 10 102 103 10<

i i r

108 109 101 010"

Field Size, Barrels

1010 _

109_

107 _ 

106 _ 

1Q5_ 

10 4 _ 

103 _ 

102 _ 

10

1

»»** Price

1 10 102 103 1Q4 1Q5 106 1Q7 1Q8 109 1Q10

Field Size, Barrels

Figure 6 Size distribution of oil fields. A, Distribution of 

reserves by field size. B, Effect of price on number and size of 

producing fields.

(area 1, fig. 6A). The limits at the low end are set by 

economics. There are innumerable small pockets of oil and 

gas throughout the world, and how many become oil and 

gas fields is determined largely by price. The logarithmic 

scale (fig. 65) shows this progression schematically.

It is almost an article of faith in the petroleum community that total reserves are a function of large fields. 

This has been true of the United States and it continues to 

be true of the world at large. But the future of oil discovery 

and production in the drilled-up interior of the contiguous 

48 States will increasingly be a function of small field 

discoveries, made at steadily increasing cost up to the 

point where other energy sources displace domestic oil and 

gas in the market. This suggests that most of the remaining 

recoverable oil and gas in this area will not be found in 

large fields, and that estimates of future discoveries based 

on the history of large field contributions have not taken 

this new fact into account.

It must be borne in mind that the history of petroleum 

discovery and production in the United States has been 

dominated by the occurrence and contributions of giant

fields, which account for nearly 60 percent of all oil found 

and recovered in this country (Halbouty, 1970). The 

record, then, is the record of a mere handful (less than 300) 

out of more than 25,000 fields ranging in content from 

10,000 million barrels (1,370 million tonnes) down to a few 

thousand. What the Hubbert model shows most clearly is 

the path traced by the petroleum industry as it proceeded 

to deplete, almost to exhaustion, this small population of 

highly lucrative targets. This was done under economic 

and technological conditions that were themselves shaped 

by the way in which these large concentrations of 

petroleum wealth were distributed.

To recapitulate: the Hubbert model is significant less 

for what it says about the amount of ultimate recovery 

than for what it says about the rate at which the petroleum 

resources of the United States will be found and produced, 

because when rate is recognized as the governing factor in 

discovery and production the value of the volume available 

for ultimate recovery ceases to be open-ended. Recovery 

becomes sensitive to economics and technology. For the 

Hubbert model the cycle ends at the point where the projection of historic economic and technological conditions 

against the diminishing numbers of the larger classes of 

fields reduces the return on new ventures to zero.

In contrast, Zapp and his successors deal only with the 

amount of resources postulated to be discoverable by 

specified amounts of exploration effort, arbitrarily supplying recovery factors as needed to obtain estimates of the 

recoverable portion. But these models speak not at all to 

the rate at which these resources will in fact be exploited, 

the time interval over which they become available, or the 

shape of the curve that describes the progress of future 

petroleum discovery and production. They are essentially 

open-ended not only as to time, but with regard to the 

economic and technological conditions assumed for them 

as well.

Thus, in the context of sharply rising real prices for oil 

and gas to levels never remotely approached so far in the 

20th Century, it now becomes possible to envision a greatly 

extended tail to the classic discovery-production curve 

under which the small contributions of many small fields 

over many years add to totals that are large in the aggregate. With an extraordinary commitment of time and 

effort, whose plausibility is suggested by the rapidly 

escalating costs, not just of oil, but of all forms of energy, 

the volume of oil ultimately found and produced in the 

United States now and in the 21st Century may eventually 

approach the predictions of Zapp and his colleagues. But it 

will take a long, long time!

Thus, national policy toward mineral resources has 

been and will continue to be dependent upon estimates of 

remaining recoverable supplies. National oil policy is only 

one facet of this many-sided problem of how nations, 

separately and in concert, can most effectively deal with 

their rising resource requirements. Policy toward breeder

Interdependence of Nations 9
reactor development depends, among other considerations, upon our assessment of the future supply of 

uranium. Is there enough to last at projected rates of consumption, until safe and acceptable breeders can be put into operation? The answer will influence both the pace of 

breeder development and the relative balance between coal 

and nuclear energy as sources of electric power. Similarly, 

national policy toward the resources of the deep sea floor 

must first consider what they are, where they are, and how 

their value compares with similar resources onshore. 

Research and development policy aimed at bringing high 

cost energy substitutes to market must continually take account of the potential remaining in conventional resources.

Crude and uncertain as they may be, mineral resource 

estimates are essential ingredients of national policy. There 

are no substitutes available, and the only responsible action one can take toward them is to continue the pursuit of 

knowledge that will bring each successive estimate closer to 

the truth. It is to this goal that the efforts of the U.S. 

Geological Survey have been dedicated throughout the 

first century of its existence, and I can think of no more 

worthy cause to absorb its energies in the second.

REFERENCES CITED

Hendricks, T. A., 1965, Resources of oil, gas, and natural gas 

liquids in the United States and the world: U.S. Geological 

Survey Circular 522, p. 2.

Hubbert, M. K., 1962, Energy resources, a report to the Committee on Natural Resources: National Academy of Sciences 

National Research Council, Washington, D.C., Publication 

1000-D.

 1967, Degree of advancement in petroleum exploration 

in the United States: American Association Petroleum 

Geologists Bulletin, v. 51, no. 11, p. 2207-2227.

Miller, B. M., and others, 1975, Geological estimates of undiscovered recoverable oil and gas resources in the United 

States: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 725, p. 29.

Roosevelt, T., 1908, Opening address by the President of the 

United States to a conference of Governors in the White 

House, May 13-15, 1908: Proceedings, p. 7-8, Washington, 

D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office.

Theobald, P. K., Schweinfurth, S. P., and Duncan, D. C., 1972, 

Energy resources of the United States: U.S. Geological 

Survey Circular 650, p. 7.

White, D., 1920, Petroleum resources of the world: p. 1-22 in 

Annals of American Academy of Political and Social 

Science, Publication No. 1468, p. 1-22.

Zapp, A. D., 1961, Unpublished report to Natural Resources 

Committee of the National Research Council: Washington, 

D.C.

Halbouty, M. T., 1970, Giant oil and gas fields in the United H. W. Menard

States, in Geology of giant petroleum fields: American U.S. Geological Survey

Association Petroleum Geologists, Memoir no. 14, p. 91. Reston, Virginia 22092

10 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Greetings from the National Academy of 

Sciences

Philip Handler 1

President, National Academy of Sciences 

Washington, D.C.

I bring greetings to the United States Geological 

Survey from the National Academy of Sciences and congratulate both the Academy and the Survey on our mutual 

success over this past century.

I try never to be a poseur, although the nature of my 

current post is such that I frequently find myself affecting 

expertise in areas concerning which I know almost next to 

nothing. I will not do that to you this morning. You are the 

earth scientists, I am not. I am a biochemist.

Accordingly, I would like to say just a few words 

which may put our mutual efforts into a kind of perspective. Most of the history of science proceeded along a 

rather leisurely path. It was not very expensive; it involved 

relatively few people. It consumed very little in the way of 

resources. Slowly, it changed its character. World War I 

made the first big difference. Until that time, it had never 

been thought that the pursuit of science, in and of itself, is 

a responsibility of a nation-state. There were scientific 

enterprises already in being, such as the U.S. Geological 

Survey, for specific and relatively narrowly conceived purposes. But until World War I the idea had never been 

seriously considered that accumulation of scientific 

understanding of the natural world, of itself, is a formal 

responsibility of the state.

World War I somewhat changed that. It was the first 

technical war and nations began to think in some what different terms. But it was World War II that genuinely gave 

impetus to the scientific enterprise of the world as we now 

know it.

For the United States, our credo was expressed in a 

small volume called "Science, the Endless Frontier," by 

Vannevar Bush (1960). For the first time, it was clearly 

stated that the accumulation of scientific understanding is 

worthy of support with public funds and that the principal 

reason for so doing is a shared belief that inevitably, as a 

consequence of the accumulation of scientific understanding, there would inure to the benefit of the nation increased military security, improved agriculture, an expanded economy, and a generally enhanced daily life. This 

nation accepted that credo; the formal event was creation 

of the National Science Foundation but the philosophy

Deceased December 29, 1981.

was distributed over the entire governmental structure, including the U.S. Department of the Interior and the 

Geological Survey.

Modern science was the phoenix that rose out of the 

ashes of World War II. Since the United States emerged 

from that war essentially unscathed in fact, richer and 

stronger than before, while the rest of the industrialized 

world was recovering from World War II the United 

States obtained a giant step ahead into the era of modern 

science. By about 1959, American science comprised twothirds to three-quarters of world science, measured in 

terms of numbers of people involved and resources 

brought to bear. But that was the peak.

From that time forward, the other nations of the 

world began to develop their own scientific enterprises, 

doing so in their own styles based on their cultural traditions, so that no two nations do it quite the same way. By 

now science in the United States constitutes something of 

the order of one-third of world science taken across the 

board, measured again in terms of numbers of people involved and the resources brought to bear. Western Europe 

plus Japan comprise a second third and, in a general way, 

the Soviet Union and the other socialist nations of Eastern 

Europe are most of the other third, with China, Brazil, 

Mexico, India and other developing nations just coming on 

the scene in a major way. The American role will subside 

still further as a fraction of the total, not because our 

endeavor will decrease over the long run, but because of 

the continuing growth of world science. These developments alone would not have been troublesome to United 

States science, but other more recent developments give us 

cause for concern.

The credo stated by Bush and his colleagues has certainly been demonstrated to be well justified. Research in 

the years since World War II has expanded our knowledge 

of what man is and of the universe in which we find ourselves in a way that remains mind-boggling to those of us 

whose memories span that period. Surely, in the field of 

your interest, developments with respect to continental 

drift and plate tectonics stamp the last two decades as an 

era apart in the history of earth science. Recently gained 

understanding of living cells, of genetic mechanisms, and 

early approaches to understanding the nature of the brain

Greetings from National Academy of Sciences 11
again stamp this as a unique period. The chemists have 

changed the world in that they can manufacture practically 

any conceivable chemical compound at will, providing the 

earth scientists will give them the raw materials. The 

physicists have given us the basis, through solid state 

physics, of microelectronics and of the modern computer, 

which may yet prove to be the greatest transformation in 

human history since the appearance of language.

Unfortunately we still bear one other legacy of World 

War II. Nuclear weaponry remains on the front pages of 

our newspapers and remains the overriding single problem 

of the era in which we live. That too is a problem that is 

not remote from the earth sciences that must provide the 

mineral resources necessary for such a program.

All in all, the success of the scientific venture for two 

decades has indeed lived up to all of its promises except in 

one degree. It has indeed expanded the economy, it has improved material aspects of the quality of life in a way we 

never knew before. It has increased agricultural productivity in a way we could never previously have imagined. 

As a result of this scientific advance, perhaps the most 

dramatic statistic describing the change in the United 

States in living memory is the fact that when the population of the United States was 100 million, the agricultural 

labor force was 14 million, and that now, when the population of the United States has grown to be 200 million, the 

agricultural labor force has become 4 million. No other set 

of numbers so dramatically describes the social transformation of American society.

We went along rather happily with all this, until in recent times the tone began to change. The shared belief that 

the support of science and what it makes possible is inevitably in the national interest has begun to erode. It has 

begun to erode because of a series of episodes which, one 

after another, begin to gnaw away at public faith: the 

DC-10, Love Canal, Three Mile Island, allegations of the 

carcinogenicity of almost everything we use. These, one 

after another, have begun to bother the American public 

and, with a small time delay, the citizens of other nations 

as well. The public begins to wonder whether, at the other 

end of this road on which science has set society, there is 

benefit or catastrophe. Under those circumstances, it may 

well turn out that public willingness to support these 

shared endeavors will diminish. Perhaps we have already 

seen the beginning of this trend. It began in Fiscal 1967 in 

the United States when, for the first time, appropriations 

in the support of science generally leveled off. That support declined until 3 years ago when across the board the 

decline was about 20 percent in purchasing power from 

what it had been in 1967. Thanks to special efforts by 

Presidents Ford and Carter, we had started to turn that 

around but then, as in the rest of the economy, inflation 

took its toll and despite those efforts we have not really 

recovered.

Indeed, we have fallen back considerably in this 

general enterprise for a set of reasons that most of you will 

recognize. The simplest of these is the fact that since 1967, 

the size of the American scientific community has doubled. 

We were producing scientists at a rate that increased the 

scientific population by about 8 percent per year. Since 

1967, therefore, we have more or less doubled our 

numbers. That generates a kind of pressure on the system: 

all these scientists want scientific jobs and all want to do 

science.

The intrinsic costs of doing science have risen at a rate 

that nobody can estimate. I always say "about 5 percent 

per year," as if I know; I haven't the faintest idea of the intrinsic rate at which the costs of doing science necessarily 

escalate. It has to do with our increasing sophistication and 

the increasing cost of instrumentation required for the 

kind of science we would like to do tomorrow as compared 

to what we did yesterday. The rate of cost rise is surely not 

insubstantial. As the enterprise has grown, whether science 

be done in a Federal agency, a university, or an industry, 

the associated overhead costs keep rising. They eat into the 

bottom line of the money that is appropriated in the name 

of research.

These three factors the size of the scientific population, the intrinsic costs of doing science, and the overhead 

structure together have very much eroded what is really 

feasible with the amount of money that is available to the 

American scientific community. That is very, very trying 

because, at the same time, the challenges have actually increased and the opportunities are even more inviting; the 

identifiable problems are, perhaps, more serious than ever.

Within the realms of earth sciences, I need not tell you 

what the challenges and the opportunities are; they are obviously enormous. Plate tectonics has revealed much, but 

not quite enough. It explains in a general way why one 

class of earthquakes should happen, but it does not really 

tell you yet exactly where it will happen or when it will happen. But the present level of understanding does make you 

feel good in that when an earthquake happens you will 

understand it to some degree. It has provided some basis 

for understanding of ore body formation but not quite 

enough; it has not yet given you the predictive power you 

would like to have. So it does not tell you exactly where to 

drill for what. When you are successful, even on a random 

drilling basis, Bill (Dr. Menard), you will feel better about 

having found it because you will pretend that you 

understood why it was there. But if we continue, if there is 

a sufficient interest and if sufficient effort is put into 

understanding ore body formation, then surely in due 

course predictive power will increase.

Our understanding of continental drift has improved 

enormously as a result of the improved drilling capability 

which has been provided in recent years, particularly by 

the travels of the Glomar Challenger. I know that you will

12 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
continue to improve on drilling technology and give the 

earth sciences a whole raft of new scientific capabilities if 

the country will pay for them and if we put in place the institutional structure that is necessary but is now completely 

missing.

The most powerful tools will be seismographs, new 

seismic techniques which are just being born, new drilling 

capability, the Glomar Explorer being the first in that line, 

and of course a whole series of space-based platforms. 

These platforms will enable us to make all sorts of examinations of the Earth from its outer stratosphere all the 

way back into deep earth, using all sorts of new techniques 

which are just being born: laser ranging, acoustical ranging 

for the deep ocean, long-line microwave interferometry, 

base-line interferometry, diverse electro-optical devices, 

and silicon-charge devices which will provide, in effect, a 

new type of camera which will go directly into the computer with its information rather than going through 

photographic techniques on the way. All of these will 

marvelously enhance the ability of the earth sciences to 

understand that object which is the center of our interests, 

the Earth from its outermost regions down into its core.

If all of that is successful, we will be better able to find 

minerals that we require, better able to predict earthquakes 

one day; we will understand our role in the long-term 

climate process, something which we must do in the very 

near future if we are to develop sensible policies with 

respect to the use of energy within this and all other nations. The opportunities are there, the new tools will be 

available. Whether or not American society and other 

societies will provide those tools is a political question and 

not a scientific question.

I confess that until recently I have been rather disturbed by the erosion of public faith about which I have 

spoken because of my understanding of the political 

climate in which we now live, and the awareness that the 

enormous inflation hurts scientific enterprises as it hurts 

everything else. I would have been content if one way or 

another we could cajole the American people and their 

Congress into supporting science at a constant rate and 

constant dollars and wait for a better day, as it were. I 

thought that would be doing very well. We have not succeeded in doing that but I would have settled. At this 

point, I am unwilling to settle.

As we now see tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, 

the importance of dealing with the problems before us that 

require scientific understanding looms ever larger in many 

ways. This nation's monetary problems and its inflation 

problem have roots in the technical nature of our 

economy, the resource base and how it relates to the rest of 

the world, at least in some way.

Our military security has changed. We have produced 

one trillion dollars' worth of weaponry since World War 

II. We have gone from the moment when the worst that the

Japanese could do to the U.S.A. was to destroy a fleet at 

Pearl Harbor, to a time when the nation is so vulnerable 

that it can be completely destroyed in about 15 minutes. 

Hardly a rational outcome for the expenditure of a trillion 

dollars.

The vulnerability of the United States is not merely 

related to weapons; it results also from the geopolitics of 

the Earth and the very complex world in which we live. The 

United States was a very special place in the history of 

human beings. Thanks to the Constitution, amazingly, this 

really has been a democracy; the ideal of liberty was more 

real in the United States than any place else in the history 

of human beings. After World War II, we grafted on to 

that structure the remarkable scientific venture which excited the imagination of human beings, taught us more 

about ourselves and our universe than one could have 

dreamed that we would learn within our own lifetimes, and 

fulfilled the prophecies and more of "Science, the 

Endless Frontier." Suddenly it is all terribly vulnerable.

The United States must deliberately set out to recapture its place in the world view. But we can no longer simply buy it. We cannot do it by military means because no 

nation will ever be allowed aggrandizing military ventures 

any more. We have to go back to recapturing the imagination of human beings the world over. We have learned how 

to do that in the past. We did it gloriously for twenty years 

after World War II. We can do it again. And science is the 

means.

We have the resource base. We have the largest trained 

scientific manpower base in the world. To be sure, we will 

have to compete with the sophisticated manpower of all 

the other nations. I do not expect us to be first in 

everything; what is important is the extent to which science 

and its applications can continue to take our society in the 

directions that Vannevar Bush promised. It is absolutely 

imperative that we continue to make an all-out try.

The resources that we must ask for are small in terms 

of the fraction of the GNP that is required. We can easily 

afford it if the people of the United States have the will. 

Nothing else will retain the position of the United States on 

the world scene and nothing will preserve our own selfimage as to who we are and what we think we are. That's 

an enormous challenge. It is one which I know you will 

share and one which you will gladly take up. You will have 

a lot of company but you will have to join me in persuading the Congress and the people of the United States 

that it is worthwhile. They have begun to walk away. They 

think that we made promises we could not keep, that we 

exaggerated and that much that we have offered has turned 

to ashes in their mouths. But that is exaggerated hyperbole 

offered by disaffected persons and that then becomes grist 

for the mills of the news media.

We have had problems, we have had very real problems. In the total scheme of things they are small problems, not large problems. They must not be allowed to

Greetings from National Academy of Sciences 13
loom quite so large. The mote in the eye should not be REFERENCE CITED 

mistaken for being disease; it is only a mote in the eye. We 

have problems which we can manage. We have resources 

we can yet find. We have resources we can share with the

rest of the planet while other peoples share their resources _ , . nf . _ . , , .

.., _,. . c . . A , Bush, Vannevar, 1960, Science, the endless frontier; a report to with us. Science remains, as far as I can make out, the

most powerful tool that our civilization has developed to the President on a Pro^ram for postwar scientific research

mitigate the condition of man. It behooves us to use it. (J"Jy 1945): Washington, National Science Foundation, 220

Thank you. p.

14 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Major Challenges and Opportunities for 

National Ceoscience Programs — 

A Brazilian Viewpoint

J. R. de Andrade Ramos

President, Companhia de Pesquisa de Recursos Minerals, Brazil

These are days of high significance to the world of 

geology. This Centennial meeting in honor of the United 

States Geological Survey brings us to one of the greater international geological science organizations, if not the 

greatest. Its achievements are grand and its technical staff 

is, doubtless, among the world's leaders in their specialties.

For us, as Brazilians, this date evokes gratitude for 

some important experiences. We should not forget that our 

country is highly indebted to the U.S. Geological Survey 

for knowledge of its own geology. In the early 194()'s, 

Brazil was, practically speaking, in the earliest stages of 

development in the geological science. We did not even 

have one school of geology. The few earth science professionals we had were graduated from the only mining 

engineering school of our country. Our lack of exchange 

with more developed countries and the absence of budget 

resources almost condemned us to a state of stagnation in 

the field of the geological sciences.

During this time the influence of the U.S. Geological 

Survey began in Brazil, as a consequence of mutual efforts 

at resource development during World War II. At that 

time, the first discoveries of tantalite, columbite, beryl, 

and scheelite were made in northeastern Brazil; all these 

being minerals of strategic importance, essential to wartime industry. With many of the traditional European and 

Asian supply sites in the hands of the enemy, this region 

became the target of an intense prospecting effort for those 

minerals. The first U.S. Geological Survey missions to 

Brazil date from that time. Outstanding among those 

associated with USGS work was William Drumm 

Johnston, Jr. He was responsible for teaching and guiding 

several Brazilian mining engineers who today hold important positions on the Brazilian mineral scene.

USGS SERVICE TO SCIENCE IN BRAZIL

After the war, except for a short interruption, the U.S. 

Geological Survey intensified its activities with doubled enthusiasm. We want to emphasize the meaning of these 

Survey activities. It was neither a matter of commercial interest to guarantee the supply of cheap raw materials to 

American industry nor a case of political influence. It was, 

fundamentally, the pure scientific and technical interest of

an organization engaged in the advancement of geology in 

a still underdeveloped country. The main effort was always 

directed toward the training of Brazilian professionals so 

that, in the future, they could themselves conduct the work 

related to mineral prospecting.

The list of jobs done by the USGS in Brazil is very long 

indeed. A recent survey shows that 153 USGS professionals have worked on many Brazilian projects since 

1942. We should like to mention a few of them and the 

following projects: the survey of the "Quadrilatero Ferrifero," State of Minas Gerais, today the Brazilian iron ore 

producer, undertaken by the team of Joel B. Pomerene, 

Garn A.Rynearson, Joseph O'Rourke, Philip W. Guild, J. 

E. Gair, Norman Herz and others and led by John Dorr; 

execution of the "Bahla Project" whose objective was the 

geological mapping and evaluation of the mineral 

resources of the State of Bahia, staffed by Richard W. 

Lewis, Jr., and Ray H. Hagell; the pioneer uranium prospecting surveys carried out by Max G. White, Gene E. 

Tolbert, J. J. Matzko, Helmuth Wedow, Charles J. Pierson, Donald Haynes and others; execution of the 

"Tungsten Project," an integrated investigation of the 

scheelite producing area in northeastern Brazil; survey of 

the nickel deposit of Niquelandia, State of Goias, by 

William T. Pecora; the establishment of the Mineral 

Analysis laboratory (Laboratorio de Analises 

Minerals LAMIN) of the Mineral Resources Prospecting 

Company (Companhia de Pesquisa de Recursos 

Minerals CPRM). This complex job, involving the choice 

and installation of equipment and personnel training in the 

United States, was done by Albert P. Marranzino. Other 

projects include the investigations of the geology of the 

Maranhao Basin by Donald F. Campbell; the installation 

of regional laboratories at Goiania as a preliminary project 

of the Center for Mineral Technology, operated by 

CPRM; a broad program of assistance to the National 

Department for Water Resources and Electrical Energy 

(Departamento Nacional de Aguas e Energia Electrica DNAEE) involving the organization and improvement of the services of these agencies, and several other 

projects carried out by Don C. Perkins, William F. Curds, 

Woodrow W. Evett and Leonard E. Snell. There were also 

USGS training programs in both the United States and

Brazilian Geoscience Programs 15
Brazil for the DNPM and CPRM staff; the magnificent 

job performed by Francis X. Lopez, which gave our 

geologic cartography an extraordinary headstart by training several of our professionals to use this important 

geologic tool; and the invaluable support of the USGS to 

the first five Brazilian schools of geology. We should not 

forget Professor J. T. Stark, who taught in Sao Paulo and 

Recife; Max L. Troyer, Stuart L. Schoff, Harris G. Rodis, 

William B. Sinclair, and T. W. Offield who conducted 

support missions to the Government's Northeast Development Agency (Superintendencia do Desenvolvimento do 

Nordeste SUDENE) that is responsible for the social and 

economic development of our country's poorest region; 

and Mackenzie Gordon, Jr., who made the first coal 

studies in Brazil. As supervisors of all these activities, 

besides Max G. White and Albert A. Marranzino, we 

should like to mention Alfred J. Bodenlos and S. Anthony 

Stanin, who also performed technical jobs of the highest 

standards, including Bodenlos' investigations of magnesite 

in Bahia. Finally, one cannot forget those in charge of the 

coordination of this work, especially John A. Reinemund, 

head of the Office of International Geology, and George 

Ericksen and Alfred Chidester, former heads of the 

Branch of Latin American and African Geology.

THE FUTURE OF GEOLOGY IN BRAZIL

It is worthwhile to emphasize the contributions of the 

U.S. Geological Survey to Brazilian geology, because they 

improved our geologists' knowledge and gave them the 

self-confidence needed to face the great challenges of the 

future that are the topic of this symposium and of this 

paper.

Now, mineral problems present several aspects. On the 

one hand, it can be seen that for many ores the best mines 

have been quickly exhausted due to increased consumption. Thus, there is a continuing need for ever more 

sophisticated and advanced techniques of prospecting, 

mining and ore dressing. So it is necessary to find new 

mines, which are often located in more remote and inaccessible areas, at greater depths, have lower grade ores, 

and involve increasingly complex mining techniques and 

ore dressing methods sometimes not yet fully developed.

On the other hand, we have financial problems, too. 

Today, budgets for great mining projects amount to hundreds of millions in dollars. Now, when most other enterprises in fields of human activity also require such large expenditures, the competition for the limited amount of 

funding available is very strong indeed. Therefore the indebtedness of major mining companies, even the great 

multinational firms, rises every year. State participation, 

sometimes requested by private businessmen themselves 

because of insufficient proper funds, grows continually 

even in the Western world. As a matter of fact, we know 

that in order to carry out very large projects in recent

years, it has become necessary to have joint ventures by 

many multinational companies supported by a pool of international banking organizations.

Then we have to consider how to address the political 

risks. In countries with different ideological and political 

trends, private enterprises are often subject to expropriation, frequently without adequate refund. The shortage of 

funds and technology, especially in the Third World, has 

also caused many problems in countries where the multinationals were at work.

As a consequence of government intervention, the free 

market economy is not functioning as it did in the past. It is 

not unusual for some governments to enter specific ore 

markets in order to sell their new materials at privileged 

prices, resulting in the well-known practice of "dumping" 

that solves their need for capital. This action, naturally, 

disturbs the pricing of mineral commodities and requires 

private companies to adopt different ways of conducting 

their affairs since they cannot compete against such 

practices.

In our opinion, another great challenge for a mining 

community is how to change the very attitude of certain 

branches of government toward mineral prospecting and 

resources exploitation. Especially in relation to prospecting that is very difficult. The main difficulty for resource 

development in a country like Brazil is how to convince 

government organizations to appropriate sufficient funds 

for achieving successful mineral programs. Usually, economists, accountants, and similarly-oriented officials are 

not receptive to budget proposals for projects with exceptional risks and long capital-return periods. Moreover, 

public opinion is largely negative about mining operations. 

For example, it is often alleged that mining is one of the 

major causes of pollution and environmental problems. 

We must face a task of considerable magnitude if we are to 

change the public view of mining.

We also believe that the more developed countries 

should understand our legitimate concerns in the Third 

World for ways to process and export raw materials at a 

more sophisticated level of beneficiation and refinement 

that will increase their exchange value. In these times of 

growing social tensions, all should work to reduce the gap 

between rich and poor, industrial and nonindustrial, developed and underdeveloped countries. This would also 

benefit the already developed countries. One of the 

quickest ways to do this is to increase the per-capita income of a developing country by promoting its industries 

with its own natural resources.

BRAZIL OFFERS FINANCIAL INCENTIVES TO 

FOREIGN INVESTORS

In Brazil, our government, aware of the gigantic task 

ahead of it, feels that there is room enough for active participation in development by the state, by the multina16 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
tionals, and by Brazil's own private companies. Therefore, 

as strong as state enterprises may appear, Brazilian laws do 

accept and encourage the presence of foreign companies in 

the mining industry.

Until recently, major restraints limited the participation of foreign private industries only in oil and nuclear 

minerals exploration, because prospecting and mining activities for these commodities were state monopolies. Recent legal modifications have changed matters as concerns 

oil. PETROBRAS is allowed to sign "sharing contracts" with 

developers who can make open bids for some of the promising areas revealed by previous work. These areas are then 

investigated by the successful bidder who is entitled to 

receive, in case of discovery, a share of the oil found and 

produced.

The law that created NUCLEBRAS also allows participation in joint ventures for prospecting and mining nuclear 

ores. Some of these types of association are already in 

operation.

BRAZIL'S GEOLOGICAL FRONTIERS

Brazil is known as one of the last geological frontiers 

on our planet. It is one of the few countries in the world 

where it is still possible to find outcrops of great dimensions that contain high grade ores. Our Amazon region has 

a vast not-yet-fully explored area where we hope to achieve 

sizeable results.

The energy crisis torments the world including Brazil, 

which especially needs mineral fuels, either liquid or solid. 

Today our daily oil production of 172,000 barrels amounts 

to less than 15 percent of our 1.1 million-barrel per day 

needs. However, due mainly to recent offshore discoveries, 

we hope to produce about 500,000 barrels per day by 

1985-about 350,000 of that from the coastal waters of 

Campos, north of Rio de Janeiro.

Great advances have been made in the search for coal, 

and our present reserves amount to 14 billion tons. Present 

production is on the order of 5 million tons yearly and a 

great effort is under way to increase this to 27 million tons 

a year. On the one hand, this will certainly require much 

financing, but, on the other hand, the mining companies 

involved will have many profitable opportunities.

IMPROVED PRODUCTION AHEAD FOR ENERGY 

FUELS

Brazil intends to overcome, or at least to reduce 

significantly, its energy crisis. It is common knowledge 

that the Brazilian Government is engaged in a program to 

produce alcohol as a fuel and thus to provide a 170,000 

barrel per day oil equivalent by 1985. With the production 

of an equal amount of oil equivalent from coal and with 

the projected increase of oil production to 500,000 barrels 

per day, Brazil will be able to produce about 50 percent of 

its needs in mineral fuels even though oil consumption will

range from about 1.6 to 1.7 million barrels per day by 

1985. This will considerably improve our trade balance, as 

oil is, by far, our main import.

The outlook for uranium is also promising. As a result 

of prodigious exploration efforts in recent years, our 

uranium reserves jumped to an estimated 198,000 tons of 

U3 O8 concentrate, putting Brazil in 5th place in the world. 

And these reserves will tend to increase in the near future. 

It is very important to mention that these ores are associated with alkaline rocks, granites, migmatites, 

metaconglomerates, sandstones, and carbonatites.

Next year, the first Brazilian uranium mine will start 

operation with an initial production equivalent to 500 tons 

a year of yellow cake. This may soon be doubled. A complex of 3 nuclear plants with 3.2 million kW power was 

nearing completion in 1979. The first plant, producing 

about 626,000 kW, is scheduled for operation in 1981. In 

this program, Brazil is incorporating up-to-date technology related chiefly to the nuclear fuel cycle.

Our position is also very good in aluminum. Today, 

we still import some aluminum; however, that will change 

shortly. Our bauxite reserves amount to 3.9 billion tons, 

located mainly in the Amazon region, where the hydroelectric potential is approximately 100 million kilowatts. For 

the whole country, this potential is estimated to be about 

209 billion kilowatts, but only 24 million kilowatts are produced today. Thus, Brazil may well become an important 

world aluminum exporter. Our government is now installing two integrated projects: the one, ALUNORTE, for 

alumina production with a capacity of 1.6 million tons per 

year; the other, ALBRAS, for aluminum itself with a capacity of 320,000 tons per year. Situated in the 

neighborhood of Belem, the hub of the Amazon region, 

both projects are joint ventures with Japanese companies. 

In addition, a third, the Trombetas project, will soon start 

to export bauxite. This project is a joint venture between 

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, the state-owned company, 

and several foreign enterprises.

Until now, if we spoke about Brazilian mining we 

referred only to iron ore. In fact, Brazil was once called a 

"one-ore country," which indicates our great dependence 

upon this ore. Today, iron continues to be responsible for 

92 percent of our mineral exports, and recently the 

Brazilian Government initiated the Carajas Project, the 

biggest mining project in the world. With an investment of 

about 2.3 billion dollars including an 887-kilometer 

railroad, it involves the establishment of a gigantic iron 

mine with an 18-billion-ton reserve. As a whole, Brazil is 

estimated to have a reserve of about 70 billion tons of iron 

ore.

It is important to mention that Brazil is currently 

responsible for 25 percent of the world's iron ore trade; 

some years ago we had only 4 percent. These figures indicate the importance of Brazil as a raw material supplier.

Brazilian Geoscience Programs 17
It can also be said that we have or approach self sufficiency in many other important minerals, such as 

cassiterite, with fairly large reserves in Rondonia, Amazon 

region, and in the State of Goias. These reserves may increase substantially. Brazil is also potentially a tin exporter. Manganese also represents an important export 

item since we have significant reserves in the Amapa Territory (estimated at 30 million tons) and at Urucum in 

Mato Grosso State. Brazil is the world's greatest producer 

of niobium with large reserves at Araxa, in the State of 

Minas Gerais. Tungsten also plays a valuable role in our 

economy; significant scheelite deposits are found in northeastern Brazil.

Base metals, however, represent one of our greatest 

challenges. The search for copper, one of our most expensive imports, has not yet revealed significant reserves. 

Another Brazilian problem is the scarcity of sulphur. The 

first known ore deposit was only discovered in 1978 and is 

still being evaluated.

Geological sciences present several fascinating 

challenges, especially where research depends on techniques that are not yet well developed. For example, exploration of the bottom of the sea will require tremendous efforts by geologists. Economic problems, no doubt, are also 

some of the reasons that ocean mining has not yet been 

completely explored. Investigations on the bottom of the 

sea have been and are more expensive than those on the 

land, and the mining of marine ores will certainly be much 

more expensive than of underground ores. However, the 

exhaustion of the best surface mines will reduce the differential in these investments and thus contribute to an increase in the exploration of the mineral resources of the 

seas.

Brazil has made a significant effort in this new field 

through such target projects as the first systematic survey 

of the continental shelf. Besides being the most promising 

area for oil, our continental shelf presents great geological 

possibilities for sulphur a mineral resource now totally 

imported.

PROMISING TECHNOLOGICAL RESEARCH

Another field of interest with great possibilities is the 

technological research related to reducing both the cost of 

mineral processing and the energy consumption which it

requires. Lower processing costs will also help offset the 

high costs resulting from the processing of lower grade 

ores.

This Centennial year for the U.S. Geological Survey 

also marks the inauguration, in Rio de Janeiro, of our 

Centre do Tecnologia Mineral or CETEM. Operated by the 

technical staff of CPRM, this mineral technology center 

performs a wide range of activities, including technological 

research on the treatment of Brazilian ores. Although 

Brazil has many similar institutions performing some of 

the same activities, CETEM brings together the human and 

material resources that will establish it as one of the best 

institutions of its kind in the world.

Brazilian mining, which is predominantly open pit, 

uses up-to-date equipment such as drag lines, large shovels 

and trucks. Efforts are made to satisfy ecological imbalances; however, no major problems have appeared on 

this subject thus far.

In this fortunate epoch for the mining world, we, the 

working scientists, are glad to express our message of faith 

and confidence in the geological sciences to which we 

dedicate our lives. With formidable problems and difficulties to be solved, the future holds much work for us. 

However, as long as organizations such as the United 

States Geological Survey and its technical staff exists, as 

long as there is such an organization with integrity in its 

purpose and methods of action, the world may be confident that all the challenges confronted in the geological 

field will be met and conquered.

There is no doubt that professional understanding 

among earth scientists from different nations, working 

together to discover new sources of the mineral resources 

vital for mankind's survival, will provide a better 

understanding among all people. That is what we all want.

J. R. de Andrade Ramos

President

Companhia de Pesquisa de Recursos Minerals

Avenida Pasteur, 404-3

Praia Vermelha

Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil 22.292

18 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Mineral Resources for the 

Twenty-first Century: 

Challenges and Opportunities 

An Indonesian Viewpoint

Soetaryo Sigit

Department of Mines and Energy 

Jakarta, Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Today, as never before in history, mankind seems to 

be most concerned about resources for the future. This is 

particularly true with regard to mineral resources, which 

are unrenewable and which are playing an ever-increasing 

role in world affairs. Mineral development has become an 

essential factor in economic and industrial development, 

not only for the developed countries but for the developing 

countries as well.

In the past, especially after the end of the Second 

World War, great worry has been expressed by people in 

various circles at various times, about raw-material shortages in general and higher costs of minerals in particular. 

Until the early 1970s, people did not anticipate the expected shortages, but since the oil crisis in 1973, the 

possibility of the world facing an oil shortage in the near 

future has become all too real for many people in the industrialized countries. Today, most of us will agree that, 

except for oil, fears about shortages of supplies of minerals 

in the near intermediate future are groundless. We see 

nothing in the record to support the view that in 25 to 30 

years' time the world will be threatened by real shortages of 

minerals.

The paradox of mineral resources is that, with well 

designed resources management and planning, mineral exploitation tends to increase ore reserves rather than 

diminish them. In some cases, ore reserves grew even faster 

than consumption. For example, according to available 

statistics, in the period between 1950 and 1970, world 

reserves of copper, nickel, iron ore, and bauxite have 

grown by more than two to five times.

Potentially available resources for most minerals are 

more than adequate. Continuing advances in exploration 

and mining techniques will undoubtedly open up ways to 

develop and to market many hitherto uneconomic mineral 

deposits. New technologies in ore dressing, metallurgy,

and recycling have already dramatically improved the supply situation of many metals.

Indeed, from a global point of view, there is no reason 

to fear that the world will be running out of supplies of 

basic mineral commodities. But on an individual country 

basis, the picture certainly looks a lot different, especially 

if we take the case of the resource-poor countries that are 

advanced industrially, such as Japan. In these countries, 

"effective depletion" of a number of traditional domestic 

mineral resources has already taken place. To sustain their 

industries, these countries already have to rely heavily on 

the importation of mineral raw materials from other countries. In fact, a clear shift of major mineral production 

away from the developed to the developing countries 

started about two decades ago, and this trend, obviously, 

is not reversible.

Actually, the whole of the Earth's crust is a huge 

storehouse of minerals. It contains enormous amounts of 

minerals and mineral-bearing materials. Mineral deposits 

are not evenly distributed around the Earth, but their 

distribution is not random: it follows orderly patterns 

related to the geologic history of the Earth's crust. Thus 

unusual abundances of certain metallic mineral deposits 

occur in the so-called metallogenic provinces in some parts 

of the world.

Probably, from a global viewpoint, the Western industrialized countries, the developing countries, and the 

countries of the Eastern bloc share the world's mineral 

resources in rough proportion to their respective 

geographical areas. But within each group of countries, the 

regional distribution of minerals is very uneven. There are 

great regional differences between the "haves" and the 

"have nots." Some countries like Canada, the USA, the 

USSR, and Australia are indeed very rich in mineral 

resources; but no country in the world is actually selfsufficient in all minerals.

Indonesian Mineral Resources 19
Since modern civilization cannot sustain itself without 

metals, fuels, and other materials that are extracted from a 

wide range of minerals, this uneven distribution of 

minerals in the Earth's crust leads to interdependence of 

countries and of various parts of the world, in meeting 

each other's needs.

This brings us to the problem of mineral resources 

development in the developing countries. Indeed, one cannot discuss mineral resources on a global scale without 

taking into account the resources potential of the developing countries, for at least two reasons. First, the fact that 

until now we knew very little about existing global 

resources pertains in particular to the situation in the 

developing countries. Second, as briefly mentioned before, 

in the last twenty years there has been a clear shift of major 

mineral production away from the developed to the 

developing countries of the world.

Many developing countries are richly endowed with a 

variety of mineral resources, and within these last thirty 

years, some of them have become very significant mineral 

raw-material producers. Unfortunately lacking other 

economic resources, most of them today are depending too 

heavily on the export of only one or two mineral commodities to sustain their economies.

The developing countries in general face more or less 

the same set of problems in developing their mineral 

resources. Obviously, the most difficult problems are how 

initially to obtain risk financing for mineral exploration 

and, once the economic feasibility of a project is proved, 

how to gain access to the international market and, finally, 

how to obtain stable and equitable prices for the product.

Today, most, if not all, mineral commodities produced in many developing countries are needed by the industries of the developed countries. At this stage in world 

affairs, one can say that the primary objective of the 

developed nations is a dependable source of mineral raw 

material, while the primary objective of the developing nations is the maximization of benefits from their mineral 

resources.

Competition for low cost sources of minerals will certainly intensify in the future among a growing number of 

industrialized nations. Unless the problems of mineral 

resources development in developing countries are resolved, and a mineral resources inventory can be made on 

a global scale, the world could prematurely face serious 

mineral demand-supply imbalances. These are now mankind's great challenges: first, to obtain the know-how and 

technology to develop the resources of the Earth to meet 

present and future demands for all; and second, to find a 

new pattern for development, which is rational and acceptable to both the consuming developed countries and to the 

producing developing countries.

FUTURE SUPPLY OF MINERAL RAW MATERIALS

Economic expansion and rapid development of 

natural resources in general, and of minerals in particular, 

are both likely to continue at an accelerated pace over the 

next few decades. Most probably, during the remainder of 

this century, man will use nearly as much of the Earth's 

mineral resources as he has during the whole previous 

course of human evolution.

For certain basic mineral commodities, effective 

depletion of presently known reserves in some major producing countries is already becoming visible. For future 

mineral resources development, advances in science and 

technology will certainly be important on a global scale. 

However, emerging economic and socio-political factors 

are not always conducive to mineral resources development in various parts of the world.

Thus, it is obvious that the problem of mineral supply 

adequacy for the world in the 21st Century does not merely 

involve technological and economic/financing aspects. 

New or future socio-political attitudes and actions, 

resulting in changing development patterns, might be even 

more decisive in determining the levels of future mineral 

development prospects.

Let us now try to elaborate a little bit on the various 

aspects of the problem.

Technological Aspects

Technological and scientific developments could alter 

the outlook for minerals from time to time. Advances in 

mining and mineral extraction technology are opening up 

the way to market many hitherto uneconomic mineral 

deposits. That is, technological development may bring 

what was formerly in a marginal or submarginal grade to a 

mineable grade. Marketing possibilities for ores mined 

from formerly submarginal deposits are presently improving because of steadily increasing demands created by 

general industrial development.

On the exploration side, we have no doubt that science 

and technology will aid in the discovery of new sources of 

minerals. The discoveries may be due to better inventory 

techniques, better instrumentation, better exploration concepts or better methodology, or from a combination of all 

these factors.

Among the various geoscientific methods used in combination in mineral exploration, probably the technological advancements in geochemical and geophysical 

methods are of primary importance. The main purpose of 

further developing these methods should be to accelerate 

regional prospecting campaigns over vast areas, especially 

in remote parts of the world, and to increase depth 

penetration. In addition to these, further improvement in 

remote sensing techniques will speed up mapping and ex20 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
ploration work in general, especially in far distant regions 

of the globe that are inaccessible for conventional terrestrial survey work.

Knowledge of the Earth's mineral resources has increased considerably during the past decade. There is no 

doubt that, with today's accelerated advances in science 

and technology, it will increase at an even faster rate in the 

future.

Last but not least, the operation of any modern 

mineral industry is energy intensive. Because of substantial 

price increases in these last six years, energy becomes a particular concern for mineral development undertakings. 

Both the availability and cost of energy can be decisive for 

the location of future processing facilities. As such, 

energy-saving technology in mining is of great significance 

for new mineral ventures.

Economic and Financing Aspects

It is to be anticipated that up to the end of this century, consumption growth rates for certain minerals will 

remain high and depletion of existing reserves will lead 

man to search for new resources. According to some 

estimates, every year about 5 percent of existing world production capacity is coming to an end because of exhausted 

reserves. Only increased new finds will make it possible to 

satisfy the world demand for mineral raw material in the 

decades to come. Since the easy mines have been found, 

mineral prospects for the future are either those with lower 

mineral content or those located in more difficult regions 

of the world.

The shift in mineral development toward lower grade 

minerals means that most future exploitation and extraction 

of minerals will have to be done on a large scale and will 

become even more energy intensive. All this means that 

larger investment capital will be needed to search for new 

mineral prospects and to establish new production facilities. 

Consequently, one can reasonably expect that the relative 

cost of mineral raw materials will show some increases in the 

future, in spite of technological improvements and increased 

efficiency in the production process.

Another problem faced by the mineral industry today is 

the problem of financing exploration and production ventures in the developing countries. Major mineral prospects 

for the future are most probably located in the still underdeveloped parts of the world. Historically, mineral development has been stimulated by the concept of profit, and in 

the past, practically all mineral development in several parts 

of the world outside the Eastern bloc was conducted by 

foreign, privately owned companies. These companies 

generally operated on the basis of traditional concession 

agreements. They provided all the capital and know-how 

and managed and directed the enterprise. Today, this practice is changing very fast in the developing countries all over 

the world as a result of rapidly growing strong feelings of 

"economic nationalism." On the one hand, increased hostgovernment control or majority local ownership makes it no 

longer attractive for private companies to spend risk capital 

for mineral exploration and investment. Thus, the traditional flow of foreign private capital for the development of 

indigenous mineral resources in many developing countries 

cannot be expected to continue. On the other hand, it is 

unrealistic to expect developing countries to have large 

amounts of scarce capital to spend in risky undertakings like 

mineral exploration.

In many cases economic nationalism has resulted in 

direct or indirect involvement of host country government 

in the ownership of production facilities or in the operation of the enterprise. In the past two decades many 

developing countries have succeeded in formulating new 

policies and entering into partnerships with private foreign 

companies to undertake mineral development on the basis 

of special contractual arrangements. It has to be noted, 

however, that for many others, both host countries and 

private companies, it may still take some time before this 

new form of partnership in mineral ventures is acceptable.

As a result of this changing situation, movements of 

private funds in the mineral sector have become rather 

limited. For example, private capital will not, as in the 

past, respond readily to market demands for particular 

minerals. This may result in price fluctuations or acute 

shortages in the supply of certain critical minerals. Such 

unhealthy situations will affect the industrialized consuming developed countries as well as the producing 

developing countries.

Political Aspects

For many developing countries, mineral resources 

development plays a dominant role in the advancement of 

the national economy. Since mineral resources are finite, 

they should be regarded as a part of each nation's heritage. 

Thus it has become a principle that it is the responsibility 

of the state to safeguard and control mineral resources 

developments for the maximum benefit of the people.

Each country has the right to determine the use of its 

mineral resources. Against this background, many 

developing countries have in the 1970s applied policies that 

exercise their sovereignty over their mineral resources. 

Although in practice there can be great variations as to the 

application of these policies, in general these all lead to 

greater involvement of the host governments in mineral 

development undertakings. The result has been expanded 

government participation in the ownership of mineral 

resources development enterprises or an expanded government role in the overall management of those enterprises.

Indonesian Mineral Resources 21
Mineral developments in the developing countries in the 

1970s have clearly shown the irreversible trend of increasing host-government or local participation in new mining 

ventures. Such trends have placed relations between the 

foreign companies and the host governments or nationals 

of these developing countries on a new basis.

In some countries where governments do not pursue a 

policy of complete national ownership or majority control 

of mineral resources ventures, foreign private companies 

may still retain partial or full control over their operations. 

But in these cases, the governments concerned have taken 

the necessary steps to ensure that the private companies are 

operated in a manner consistent with the host country's 

development priorities.

Another political aspect of mineral resources development is related to the fact that minerals are not equally 

distributed among countries and continents. This may lead 

to minerals becoming a potential basis for national and international dispute. Changes in conditions of demand and 

supply may thus give rise to problems arising from political 

instability and dislocation. And last but not least, there is 

always a danger that critical minerals in short supply could 

be used by the producing country or countries as political 

weapons in international relations.

THE INDONESIAN EXPERIENCE

The way each country goes about its mineral resources 

development is not to be separated from its historic 

background and its political and economic interest. To 

enable the reader to appreciate our viewpoint on problems 

of future mineral supply adequacy, it might be worthwhile 

to elaborate a little bit on the Indonesian experience. The 

following is a brief review of Indonesia's mineral potential, 

its development policy, and the performance of 

Indonesia's mineral industry.

Geography of the Indonesian Archipelago

Indonesia, a former colony of the Netherlands, 

declared its independence in August 1945. It was not until 

1950, however, that its sovereignty was actually established 

over the whole territory of the former Netherlands East Indies. Thereafter, for about 15 years the country went 

through various political upheavals, which hampered 

overall economic development. This situation continued 

until 1966, when at last national stability was attained after 

the great political upheaval in 1965.

Like many other developing countries in the world, Indonesia today faces the typical economic problems and 

challenges associated with its growth and it is not 

superfluous to say that Indonesia's problems are commensurate with its geography and the size of its population.

The territory of the Republic of Indonesia, which include parts of the continental Sunda and Sahul shelves and

adjacent rise, covers a total area of about seven million 

square kilometers. It occupies approximately 4 percent of 

the Earth's surface, and consists of 1.9 million sq. km of 

land area, 1.9 million sq. km of continental shelf, 2.7 

million sq. km of continental slope and rise, and 0.4 

million sq. km of abyssal plains. Superimposed on the map 

of the United States of America, the western and eastern 

boundaries of Indonesia would respectively reach across 

the lower 48 States and a considerable distance into the 

Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (fig. 1). Laid over the map of 

Europe, the distance between the extreme western and 

eastern edges of the Indonesian archipelago would extend 

from London to Moscow.

The Indonesian archipelago consists of more than 

13,500 islands, of which perhaps 6,000 are inhabited by 

people. The whole archipelago lies within the tropics and is 

characterized by high temperatures, high humidity, and 

abundant rains in the greater part of the territory. Located 

on the crossroad between two continents, Asia and 

Australia, and two oceans, the Pacific and the Indian, this 

archipelago occupies a strategic position on the map of the 

world. As such it is astride and commands sea routes that 

are among the most heavily travelled in the world.

Indonesia is the world's fifth most populous nation. 

Its total population was estimated at 135 million in 1977, 

of which about two-thirds live in Java. This makes the 

island of Java, an area the size of New York State, one of 

the most densely populated areas on Earth. Many of the 

other islands of Indonesia, including Sumatra, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Irian Jaya, the smaller Sunda Islands and 

the Moluccas, are underpopulated.

Indonesia's population is young and is growing rapidly. Nearly one-third of the people are under ten years of 

age and two-thirds are under 30. In the 1974-79 period, the 

population growth was about 2.3 percent per year. For the 

next five years, 1980 to 1985, this growth rate is expected 

to decrease to 2.0 percent per year. Indonesia's large 

population is a valuable reservoir of low cost labour, and 

may become a big asset for future development. There are 

120 ethnic groups living throughout the Indonesian archipelago, which give our country great cultural diversity 

but also great developmental differences ranging as they 

do from the Stone Age culture of central Irian Jaya to the 

modern society of metropolitan Jakarta.

In terms of gross national product, Indonesia at present is still one of the poorest nations in Southeast Asia, but 

being a resources-rich country, it certainly has the potential for self-sustaining economic development. The Indonesian archipelago is a large storehouse of a variety of 

natural resources. In addition to oil and gas, the country's 

mineral resources include tin, nickel, coal, bauxite, copper, and other minerals of lesser importance. Tropical 

timber is found in abundance, and the seas surrounding 

many of the islands also abound with fish. Indonesia's soil

22 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
APPROXIMATE SCALE

Figure 1 Map of the Republic of Indonesia superimposed on the map of the United States of America.

is well suited for growing rice, rubber, coffee, palm oil, 

sugar, tea, and spices. In fact, Indonesia is still basically an 

agricultural country, although in these last five years oil 

has become the single most important source of export 

earnings and government revenue.

Mineral Development Policy

From the outbreak of the Pacific war in 1941 until 

1966-67 no systematic mineral exploration of significance 

had ever been carried out in Indonesia. Although there has 

always been great interest in Indonesia's mineral potential, 

economic and political conditions at that time were not 

conducive to private undertakings, and the exploration activities undertaken by the Government or State enterprises 

were limited to certain projects or targets.

In the late 1950s, Indonesia's mineral production, except for oil and gas, was fully in Government hands. Only 

the old mines, previously operated by the Dutch, were producing, and by the early 1960s, most of these were 

operating under very difficult conditions. There was hardly any additional investment for replacement or rehabilitation, and an all-time low in performance was recorded in 

1966 for most existing mines.

After the great political changeover in 1966, it was immediately recognized that Indonesia needed to allow 

private foreign capital to participate in the development of 

the country's mineral resources. Thus the Foreign Capital 

Investment Law was promulgated in 1967, followed by the 

issuance of a new Mining Law in the same year. New 

economic policies were adopted by the government, which 

brought about relaxation of rules and regulations pertaining to taxation and foreign exchange control. Gradual improvements of the business environment and favourable 

market conditions resulted in a relatively quick recovery of 

the existing mineral industry. Meanwhile, foreign private 

companies responded favourably to Indonesia's invitation 

to undertake mineral exploration and development in 

various parts of the country.

Steady growth and expanding activity took place in the 

mineral sector, in particular during the period from 1967 

to 1974. The oil crisis in 1973 and the succeeding 

worldwide economic recession have somewhat retarded 

this growth and expansion until now, but in general, longterm development prospects remain bright.

So far it can be said that the performance of the Indonesian mineral industry during the last ten years has 

been sufficiently encouraging. A great deal of the progress 

achieved and the new development begun since 1967 are 

due to foreign private-capital participation in the industry.

Indonesian Mineral Resources 23
An important underlying factor, of course, is the fact that 

Indonesia is a politically stable country. Indeed the importance of political stability for mineral investment cannot be 

overstated. Because of its very nature, the mineral industry 

is very sensitive to socio-political changes, especially where 

private foreign capital is involved.

It is to be anticipated that Indonesia will continue to 

depend on the supply of foreign capital to assess and to 

develop its mineral potentials, maybe until well beyond the 

end of this century. This does not, however, mean that the 

development of the indigenous resources will be left completely in the hands of foreign private parties and that the 

government is only interested in collecting royalties and 

taxes from profitable ventures without taking any risk. In 

the early days of foreign investment in mining, the main 

emphasis was indeed given to production and foreign exchange earning. But shifting national priorities since then 

have entailed shifts in development strategies also.

Foremost among the contributions expected from 

foreign companies engaged in mineral development in Indonesia today are the opening of new development centres 

in regions outside Java, the creation of employment opportunities, the training and advancement of professional 

and managerial capabilities of Indonesian nationals, and 

the maximum utilization of domestically produced goods 

and services. For its part, the government will induce 

foreign companies to engage in domestic processing so that 

in the long run the development of mineral projects will 

strengthen the domestic industrial base. Indeed, the importance of transferring know-how and technology through 

foreign capital participation in the extractive industry cannot be overstated. Indonesia realizes that without properly 

trained people of its own, it will never be able to translate 

capital flow into meaningful development programmes.

In brief, foreign private investment should not be 

motivated by profit only; it must also fulfill a complementary role in the developmental processes of the country. 

The Indonesian government believes that foreign private 

investment in the mineral industry can continue to make a 

substantial contribution to national development.

Indonesia's Five-Year Development Plans

Started in 1969, Indonesia's series of five-year 

development plans emphasizes rehabilitation of the 

nation's economy as a major objective. The first Five-Year 

Development Plan gave high priority to agricultural production, improved irrigation facilities, and improved 

transportation systems.

The second Five-Year Development Plan (1974 to 

1979) put special emphasis on improving living standards 

by stressing agricultural and food production. Specific objectives included the provision of adequate food and 

clothing, greater employment opportunities, expanded

development of the country's infrastructure, and promotion of social welfare aims.

Indonesia's third Five-Year Development Plan (1979 

to 1984) commenced on April 1, 1979. Its three fundamental policy objectives are (a) more equitable distribution of 

development gains, income and opportunities, (b) 

economic growth, and (c) national stability.

During the period from 1979/80 to 1983/84, Indonesia's export policy will be geared to diversification by 

both products and markets. Diversification of commodities will aim at reducing economic dependence on oil 

and natural gas, which now account for about two-thirds 

of our total export value. Growth of gross oil-export earnings during the third Five-Year Plan is expected to be considerably less than during the second. This will be partly 

due to increased domestic consumption and to an anticipated low rate of production increase. As a result of the 

implementation of this new export policy, oil export earnings by 1981/82 are expected to be overtaken by non-oil 

commodities. In the mineral sector, a substantial increase 

in non-oil exports in the future is to be expected from 

nickel products, and also from tin and aluminum metals. 

At the end of the third Five-Year Development, the mining 

sector (including oil and gas) is projected to account for 

15.9 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The goal for real GDP growth is set at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent while the annual growth rates of 

the various sectors in the Indonesian economy during the 

period 1979/80 to 1983/84 are expected to be as follows: 

agriculture, 3.5 percent; mining (including oil and gas), 4.0 

percent; industry, 11.0 percent; construction, 9.0 percent; 

transportation and communication, 10.0 percent; and the 

remaining sectors of the economy, 8.0 percent. With 

regard to population growth, this is expected to slow down 

from 2.3 percent per annum in the second Five-Year 

Development period to 2.0 percent in the third Five-Year 

Plan.

Mineral Resources Potential and Development

The mineral extraction industry in Indonesia is already 

a very substantial foreign exchange earner for the national 

economy in spite of the fact that systematic mineral exploration has so far only been undertaken in a relatively 

small part of the country.

Until now only about 25 percent of a total land area of 

more than 1.9 million sq. kilometers has been mapped 

geologically in some detail. The remaining area has only 

been roughly surveyed, and certain parts are, practically 

speaking, still "terra incognita." Surveys and explorations 

in the offshore regions started only in the late 1960s, but 

since then have continued at an accelerating pace, encouraged by substantial oil and gas finds in some offshore 

areas.

24 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
From a geological point of view the Indonesian archipelago is a very complex region of the Earth's crust. The 

Indonesian island arcs represent three interlacing orogenic 

belts, namely, the Alpine-Sunda (Tethys) Mountain 

System, the East-Asiatic System (representing part of the 

Circum-Pacific System), and the Circum-Australian 

System.

In the light of modern plate-tectonic theory, the Indonesian archipelago is seen as an area of interaction 

among three major crustal elements: the East Indian 

Ocean-Australian Plate, the Pacific Plate, and the Eurasian Plate.

The geological evolution of the archipelago occurred 

during long stable periods of sedimentation interrupted by 

more dynamic periods of mountain building and igneous 

activities, and was accompanied by metamorphism, contact metasomatism, replacement, supergene enrichment, 

and weathering processes. In the long geological history of 

the country these processes have created favourable environments and conditions for economic mineral formation and accumulation. From an exploration point of view, 

Indonesia undoubtedly is very interesting and attractive, 

and indeed there are reasons to believe that this country 

must possess more diverse mineral wealth than has actually 

been discovered. But so far, it has only been established 

that Indonesia's sizeable mineral potential of regional importance consists of oil and gas, tin, lateritic nickel, bauxite, copper, and coal.

Oil and Natural Gas: Exploration for oil in Indonesia 

dates from 1871 in West Java, and from 1883 in North 

Sumatra when the first successful production well was 

drilled there. Since then Indonesia's oil industry has 

developed steadily, interrupted only by the war in the 

Pacific. However, development activities did slow down in 

the early 1960s, but since 1966 there has been a great expansion of petroleum exploration efforts, especially in the 

offshore areas. Most oil in Indonesia is produced from 

sands and sandstones of Miocene and Pliocene age at 

relatively shallow depths, ranging in most fields from 500 

to 1,600 meters. The offshore exploration efforts in the 

last ten years have resulted in discoveries of new oil and gas 

fields and have greatly increased the knowledge and 

understanding of the geology of those areas. The greater 

part of Indonesia's offshore region could be classified as 

continental shelf with an average water depth of less than 

200 meters. Most oil prospects are found in Tertiary 

sediments, deposited in shallow marine or deltaic environments, generally in gently folded geological structures. Indonesia's crude oil is typically light, and low in 

sulphur content. The well-known Minas crude, from the 

Minas field in central Sumatra, which is representative of 

most Indonesian crude, has an API gravity of 34.5 degrees 

at 60° F with a sulphur content of between 0.06 percent 

and 0.10 percent in weight. With an average daily production of 1.6 million barrels in 1978 (1.7 million barrels in 

1977), Indonesia today ranks twelfth among world oil producers. Offshore oil production, started only in 1971, accounted for 33.4 percent of Indonesia's total production in 

1978.

Of great significance besides oil is the development of 

natural gas. In 1971 and 1972, large natural gas reserves 

were discovered in the northern part of Sumatra and in 

eastern Kalimantan. This led to the establishment of gas 

liquefaction plants and, since 1977, to the export of LNG 

from Indonesia to Japan. At present the domestic use of 

natural gas is relatively limited, but significant increases in 

the near future are to be anticipated as a result of our national energy resource diversification program.

Tin: In the hard mineral sector, tin has always been Indonesia's foremost mineral commodity. The stable condition of the existing tin industry and the country's tin 

reserves potential make it very likely that by 1982 or 1983 

Indonesia may become the world's second largest tin producer, behind Malaysia.

The Indonesian tin belt, about 1,000 kilometers long 

and covering the tin islands of Bangka and Belitung, and 

those of the Riau-Lingga archipelago, forms only a 

southward continuation of the world's most potential tin 

belt, which extends from South China, through Burma, 

Thailand, and Malaysia, to Indonesia. At present, twothirds of this rich tin belt in the Indonesian territory is 

below sea level. Offshore surveys have revealed that the 

shallow sea surrounding the tin islands conceals an aureole 

of submerged tin-bearing river valleys.

Present exploitation of tin in Indonesia is almost entirely limited to secondary deposits on land and shallow 

deposits in the near-shore areas. But substantial reserves 

have been proved, onshore as well as offshore, including 

primary deposits in some of the tin islands and deposits in 

the deeper parts of the offshore areas.

Nickel: Lateritic nickel ores and nickeliferous iron 

laterites are widespread in the southeastern part of the 

island of Sulawesi and in several small islands in the northern Moluccas in the eastern part of the archipelago. These 

deposits of nickel-bearing laterites are the result of the 

weathering process of extensive masses of peridotite and 

serpentinite.

Until 1976 Indonesia produced only high-grade ore for 

export to Japan for further processing. Since the completion of two new nickel processing plants, Indonesia exports, besides nickel ore, ferronickel (since 1976) and 

nickelmatte (since 1978). With the potential additional 

production of nickel metal from a third processing plant 

now (1979) in the final planning stage, Indonesian nickel 

production could reach 100,000 tons a year in the 1980s. 

That will put Indonesia in third place among the free 

world's nickel producers, behind Canada and New

Indonesian Mineral Resources 25
Caledonia. These estimates represent about 11 percent of 

the free world nickel production projected for 1985.

Bauxite: Bauxite deposits of the lateritic type are 

widespread in various islands of the western part of the Indonesian archipelago. The ore occurs as concretions in 

clays formed through weathering of intermediate igneous 

and aluminum-rich metamorphic rocks. The concretionary 

bauxite is composed of the mineral gibbsite, with goethite 

and silica impurities, which determine its quality.

Reserves of high grade exportable bauxite are limited 

to the island of Bintan, but extensive deposits of lower 

grade bauxite are to be found in many parts of western 

Kalimantan and in some islands of the Riau-Lingga archipelago. At present Indonesia has no domestic processing plant and is exporting its bauxite to Japan. But plans 

are underway to establish a refining plant for processing 

indigenous lower grade bauxite into alumina for metal production at the Asahan Aluminum Smelter now under construction in North Sumatra.

Copper: Indications of copper mineralization are 

widespread in several islands of the Indonesian archipelago. Most of the occurrences, however, are small 

vein-type deposits of no economic importance. Of interest 

are the high grade copper deposits in central Irian Jaya, in 

which Indonesia's only copper mine is located. In northern 

Sulawesi indications have been found of extensive 

porphyry-type copper mineralization. From a geological 

point of view, similar mineralization can be expected in 

other regions in the eastern part of the archipelago.

Coal: Coal bearing sediments, ranging in age from 

Permo-Carboniferous to Pliocene, are quite widespread 

throughout the Indonesian archipelago. Coal deposits of 

economic significance, however, are confined to the Tertiary sediments in the western part of Indonesia, on the 

islands of Sumatra and Kalimantan. Eocene coals are 

found in nonmarine sediments deposited in intermontane 

basins, while Late Tertiary coals occur in the regressive sequence of the Neogene back-deep basins and, in the case of 

coal deposits in eastern Kalimantan, also in deltaic basins.

The Eocene coals are limited to extent, but they are 

generally more intensely coalified; these coals are hard, 

black, and lustrous, and resemble bituminous coals of preTertiary age. The Late Tertiary coals are extensively 

distributed, but they are in general of lower rank; unless 

locally coalified by intrusive igneous activity, these coals 

are essentially lignites with moisure content of 40 percent 

and higher.

From existing documentation on the principal coal 

deposits in Sumatra and Kalimantan, one can infer 

reserves of hard black coal and lignitic black coal in 

Sumatra and Kalimantan respectively amounting to 200 

million and 100 million metric tons. Estimates of possible 

and probable coal reserves, consisting mainly of lignitic

hard coal and lignites, range from 10 to more than 15 

billion tons for Sumatra, and in excess of 500 million tons 

for Kalimantan.

So far, coal plays only a negligible role in the national 

economy, but it has the potential to become Indonesia's 

major source of energy in the years to come. Although export prospects are rather limited, coal, if used domestically 

as an alternative to oil for primary energy generation, 

could maintain and enhance the role of oil as a foreign exchange earner for Indonesia.

Mineral Development, 1966 to 1978: Unfavorable 

political and economic conditions had caused a steady 

decline of the Indonesian mineral industry from the late 

1950s until about 1966-67, but new life has been injected 

into the practically stagnant industry with the big 

changeover in the Government's economic development 

policy since 1967. As briefly mentioned before, the promulgation in 1967 of both the new Mining Law and the 

Foreign Capital Investment Law was of great significance 

to the mineral industry. On the basis of new partnerships 

known as "contract of work" and "production sharing" 

agreements between the Government or State enterprise 

and foreign private companies, a considerable number of 

new projects have been started.

At present the Indonesian mineral industry produces 

oil and gas, tin, nickel, copper, bauxite, coal, gold and 

silver, manganese, iron sand concentrate, natural asphalt, 

and a wide range of non-metallic minerals and rocks for 

the domestic market. The growth of Indonesia's mineral 

industry within the last ten years is very obvious, especially 

when compared with the situation in 1966 (see table 1).

Table 1 Production of main mineral commodities in Indonesia 

[All commodities are given in tons except where noted]

COMMODITY

Petroleum (barrels)

Natural gas (MCF) _

LNG (m3 )

Tin _ _

Coal _ _

Gold (kg) _ _ .

Silver (kg) _ _

Nickel ore

Ferronickel

Nickelmatte

Iron sand

Natural asphalt

1966

. _ 176,481,097

12,782

701,223

319,829

128

6,867

787

. _ 117,402

13,905

1978

596,698,420

820,130,292

8,094,026

27,409

1,007,746

180,933

264,180

254

2,506

5,889

1,256,450

19,733

5,729

233,341

162,000

Source: Department of Mines and Energy, Jakarta, Indonesia.

Among the most significant achievements of the industry 

in the 1970s are the opening of new prospects and the 

establishment of new projects that are producing new commodities like copper concentrate (since 1972), ferronickel

26 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
(since 1976), nickelmatte (since 1977) and LNG (since 

1977). Oil production has increased considerably, and with 

the increase of crude prices since the end of 1973, oil export has become the country's main source of foreign exchange revenue. In 1978, export of Indonesia's mineral 

products, including oil and gas, had a total value of more 

than US $7,936 billion or 71.5 percent of the country's 

total export, which amounted to US $11,093 billion (see 

table 2).

Table 2 Revenues from Indonesian minerals export compared 

with Indonesian export totals, in U.S. dollars 

[Compared percentages of the whole are given in parentheses 

below the dollar amounts]

COMMODITY

Oil and gas

Other minerals

Minerals totals

Export totals _

Source: Department of Mines and Energy,

1966

$217,314,494

(31.2) 

40,892,111

(5.9) 

258,206,605

(37.1) 

$695,962,000

Jakarta, Indonesia.

1978

$ 7,474,923,121

(67.4) 

461,157,627

(4.1) 

7,936,080,748

(71.5) 

$11,093,000,000

National Geoscience Programme: As mentioned 

before, a great deal of the progress and the new 

developments in the Indonesian mineral industry since 

1967 have been brought about by foreign private capital. It 

is to be anticipated that foreign capital will continue to 

play a dominant role in the development of Indonesia's 

mineral potential, maybe until well beyond the end of this 

century into the 21st Century.

Shortage of capital to develop indigenous mineral 

resources is a common problem among developing countries. But apart from the problem of financing, all 

resources-rich developing countries like Indonesia should 

endeavour within the shortest time possible to attain 

technical and scientific capability in order to assess their 

own resources potentials. To leave this matter forever in 

the hands of foreign private parties is certainly against the 

national interest.

The setting up of a clear, well defined and realistic national geoscience programme, including manpower training and institutional development, is a prerequisite for a 

country like Indonesia if it is to become self-sufficient and 

self-reliant in resources assessment. Since the late 1950s, 

Indonesia has gradually built up its capability to undertake 

its own geoscience programme which includes systematic 

geologic mapping and various aspects of applied geology 

such as mineral inventory, land use and engineering 

geology, water-resources development planning, inventory 

of geothermal potential, prevention of calamities caused 

by natural hazards like volcanic eruptions, landslides, 

earthquakes and the like.

In the past, it was not easy to secure the necessary 

understanding and subsequent budget appropriations for 

basic geoscience programmes like systematic geologic mapping, marine geology, regional gravity and magnetic 

surveys, and other fundamental investigations. Part of the 

reason that the Government had shown "little interest" in 

the implementation of national geoscience programmes 

was indeed budget constraints and different overriding national priorities. However, as an insider I have to admit 

that another part of the reason was that geoscience programmes usually tend to sound too "scientific," and that 

most geologists and geophysicists have difficulties in communicating the results of their work to the general public in 

a reasonably comprehensible way. This deficiency should 

be corrected if geoscience programmes in general are to 

succeed in developing countries.

It has been our happy experience in Indonesia that 

both the understanding and support of politicians and 

government authorities for geoscience programmes in 

general and for geology and mineral exploration in particular have grown rapidly within these last few years. 

Substantial assistance in geology and mining has also been 

extended to Indonesia by various agencies of friendly 

countries, in particular by the U.S. Geological Survey and 

the U.S. Bureau of Mines, and by various international 

organizations.

In accepting foreign assistance, Indonesia puts great 

emphasis on training and transfer of know-how, because, 

as I mentioned before, without properly trained people of 

our own, this country will never be able to translate capital 

flow into meaningful development programmes. Indonesia's present capability for carrying out its own national geoscience programmes is reflected in the current 

status of various mapping, surveys and resources inventory 

activities, carried out by the Indonesian Geological Survey 

and other national agencies.

CONCLUSIONS

Rapid and accelerated development of mineral 

resources is likely to continue worldwide until the end of 

the 20th Century. On a global scale, potentially available 

resources for most basic mineral commodities seem to be 

more than adequate to meet mankind's ever-increasing demand. Nevertheless, there are reasons for mankind to 

worry about regional problems of temporary but recurring 

mineral supply shortages due to political and socioeconomic factors.

As a result of rapid effective depletion of known 

mineral resources in many developed countries within this 

century, major mineral developments are shifting away 

from the developed to the less developed parts of the 

world. Considering the question of future mineral supply 

adequacy, two major problems come to the foreground. In 

the first place, more efficient technology is required to 

develop lower grade mineral deposits. In the second place, 

to open up resources in the underdeveloped parts of the

Indonesian Mineral Resources 27
world, a new pattern for mineral resources development is 

needed, which is acceptable to both the producing developing countries and to the consuming developed countries.

Unless the problem of initiating mineral development 

in developing countries is resolved and unless mineral 

resources inventory can be made on a global scale, the 

world could prematurely face serious mineral demandsupply imbalances before the end of this century. 

Resources development aid extended to the developing 

countries should be oriented toward manpower training 

and institutional development in order to make these countries self-sufficient and self-reliant in assessing their own 

resources as soon as possible. But we also have to realize 

that problems of mineral development involve not only 

technological and economic matters but also political 

factors, which in many cases can override other 

considerations.

The Indonesian experience has clearly shown that 

regardless of a country's mineral potential, more than

anything else, it is the government's political philosophy 

and attitude which ultimately determine the levels and 

possibilities of mineral development. Hence, future 

mineral supply adequacy will likely be influenced less by 

the physical scarcity of resources than by human or 

political factors. It is in the interest of both the developed 

and the developing nations that they cooperate more closely and genuinely to undertake mineral resources development on a world-wide basis. The danger of imminent 

resources depletion should not lead mankind to scramble 

for scarce resources or to make war, but rather to search 

jointly for new resources in a genuine spirit of 

cooperation.

Soetaryo Sigit 

Secretary General 

Department of Mines and Energy 

18, Jalan Merdeka Selatan 

Jakarta, Indonesia

28 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

D. J. McLaren

Director General 

Geological Survey of Canada

The papers we have just heard emphasize two principles that will become increasingly important as the world 

considers resource availability for the next 100 years:

1. The inequality of distribution of energy and 

mineral resources on a worldwide scale, and

2. The trend, already apparent, that as resource 

depletion advances in the more developed areas of 

Earth, mankind will turn increasingly to areas 

now occupied by developing nations and to the 

oceans.

The first principle forces interdependence for resources on 

all of us. The second requires an adjustment and an 

understanding between the old and the new resource rich 

areas of the world.

The great debate currently raging in the many public 

forums established by international agencies has been concerned with how to strike a balance between the old and 

the new, the developed and the developing, in regard to the 

transfer of money, goods, and expertise in return for 

resources. By loan, by gift, by political influence, by tough 

economic bargaining? The particular stage of economic 

development that a country has reached has a strong influence on the method preferred.

The papers we have heard illustrate two approaches to 

the problem. The minimal approach would be to allow 

foreign exploration, extraction, and export in return for 

rent and royalties, and this was perhaps the dominant 

system in the past the so-called colonial era. With increasing recognition of the value of natural resources to 

national economies, this approach has become unacceptable. New systems of economic sharing have developed, 

followed by subsequent ownership of the means of production accompanied by education and training to the extent 

that the resource-rich country may ultimately assume full 

control of the development of its own resources. Such 

evolution may follow many routes, and we shall probably 

hear about some of them during this week. A point made 

here is that economic nationalism should be coupled with 

an accurate knowledge of the resource base of a nation if 

practical benefits are to flow from realistic national 

policies. This is in fact frequently ignored by the politician 

in both the developed and developing worlds, and by some 

major international agencies. Dr. Ramos tells of the difficulty of impressing Government with the necessity to appropriate sufficient funds to undertake prospecting and 

development. This point is made equally strongly by Dr. 

Sigit who rightly points out that it is a government's 

political philosophy and attitude that ultimately determines the levels and possibilities of mineral development. 

A knowledge of the physical resource base, however, in 

relation to the world market, can be a very important factor in influencing political decision.

A national geoscience program should have at least 

three main components:

1. Long-term activities including a core geological 

mapping program and research;

2. Short-term activities including airborne surveys 

and photogeological interpretation to obtain basic 

geological information on unknown areas in the 

shortest time possible; and,

3. A capability to do detailed geophysical, geological, and geochemical work on small areas with 

mineral potential.

This is a tall order in a country without its own exploration industry and, perhaps, with only a developing 

Geological Survey or its equivalent. There is, nevertheless, 

a rich source of information and interpretation that may 

be tapped by enlightened regulation. This source is to ensure full disclosure of all geoscience and technical data acquired during exploration and production, including 

substantiated reserve figures of the resource being extracted. Building on this, an administration can control 

and encourage development from a knowledge base, and 

establish a policy on supply rate for home consumption 

and export. Knowledge will be needed from the start, and 

may be considered of equal importance to royalty 

payments and taxation. Such knowledge might precede the 

development of an exploration industry within the country, and might well accelerate such a development.

In the time available it is scarcely possible for me to 

illustrate this in any detail with an example from my own 

country, but briefly, in the late 1940s the Province of 

Alberta, at that time surely a developing region, led the 

world in regulation of information flowing from a successful exploration program for oil by multinational companies. Judicious timed release of information derived 

from drilling, and public access to cores and samples, 

resulted in accelerated discovery and development. I would

Discussion 29
emphasize that this kind of stimulation can only be done 

with in-house competence in the earth sciences and not 

only competence in mineral economics and engineering.

Finally, I should like to refer to the fact that in addition to the necessary efforts that must be made in 

establishing an earth science base within a country, there 

are forces at work in the world beyond those of bilateral or 

multilateral aid or purely economic stimulus. There is a 

reservoir of scientific competence that can work 

disinterestedly. This is made up of those for whom 

research has a social as well as a scientific goal. I should 

particularly like to mention the remarkable achievement of 

AGID (Association of Geoscientists for International 

Development). In the short time they have existed, they 

have demonstrated the reality of this surge of enthusiasm 

in developing and developed countries by earth scientists 

who are concerned that their science should be utilized for 

the betterment of man. From my own experience, and as 

an example, I should like to mention two or three projects 

within the International Geological Correlation Programme that have an important bearing on resource 

development in the two regions we have heard about. Project 32 on "Stratigraphic Correlations between Sedimentary Basins in the ESCAP Region" counts Indonesia as an 

active participant and beneficiary. This project sets out to 

describe the sedimentary basins of a vast region, correlate

them and examine the controls of mineral and chemical 

distributions, particularly hydrocarbons. Similarly, Project 42 on "Upper Paleozoic of South America and its 

Boundaries," under Brazilian leadership, attempts to 

establish adequate correlation for Upper Paleozoic sequences in the Andean area and the intracratonic basins of 

South America and West Africa. These are examples of 

geological coooperation on a large scale. In addition, two 

general projects of paramount value should be mentioned: 

98 "Standards for Computer Applications in Resource 

Studies" and 143 "Remote Sensing and Mineral Exploration". These are only four projects out of over 60 in IGCP, 

that are carried out by scientists all over the world, in 

developed and developing countries, with the motivation 

that they are interested in the problems involved, and the 

belief in the need for collaboration and technology transfer 

within their chosen fields. Let us not forget that this third 

and powerful scientific force in the world is capable of 

playing an important role in the understanding of global 

resources waiting to be tapped.

D. J. McLaren 

Director General 

Geological Survey of Canada 

Energy, Mines and Resources Canada 

601 Booth Street 

Ottawa, Canada K1A OE8

30 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

Pierre Laffitte

Ecole Nationale Superieure, France

Mineral resources policy is different in France because 

there are fewer mineral resources now than before. 

Mineral resource policy should be structured on an international basis, but each country wants to develop its own. 

This policy is dependent upon the scale of the national 

mining industry, and the ratio of supply to demand. If 

there is a big demand for minerals and no resources, the 

policy will be different than in the case when most 

resources are exported.

In France, our mineral resource policy focuses on the 

following items:

1. Reduction of demand (example oil and energy 

policy).

2. Development of some new technologies using less 

mineral resources.

3. Encouragement of surveying in order to find new 

resources.

4. Establishment of training programs and developing new scientific and technologic skills.

Number four is the most important of the mineral resource 

policies. People need to be trained, not only specialists but 

also people in administration and politics. This training 

should include all the sciences, not just earth science.

Private companies invest where they want to (Canada 

and Australia for example). They are not as likely to invest 

in developing countries. This is a problem that must be 

solved between the individual mining company and the 

government.

Pierre Laffitte

Ingenieur General des Mines

Directeur

de PEcole Nationale Superieure des Mines de Paris 

60, BD Saint-Michel 

75272 Paris Cedex 06, France

Discussion 31

Problems and Requirements for 

Identifying, Exploring, and Developing 

Resources

Selected Resources Problems of 

Underdeveloped Nations, and Suggested 

Solutions

Samuel Bonis

Institute Geografico Nacional, Guatemala

INTRODUCTION

The resource problems of small, underdeveloped nations are so great that it is difficult to talk of basic science 

when death is so omnipresent. Thus, a person who is interested in basic science finds himself at professional 

meetings repeatedly preaching about the practical human 

effects of what we are or are not doing with the resultant 

risk of being stigmatized as a politician, not a geologist. 

But when we talk about resources in a poverty-level society, we are dealing with daily problems of actual existence; it is a life and death matter. It is difficult indeed 

for a conscientious geologist to escape this pervasive reality. Even an all-encompassing geologic event like the 1976 

Guatemala earthquake disaster can be reduced to these 

terms: most of the 23,000 deaths were caused by poverty, 

not by the earthquake. Prosperous people living in seismicresistant structures survived; poor people living in adobe 

huts did not (figs. 1-3). The world geoscientific community, which responded magnificently to the crisis, was 

shocked by the death toll, and it was attracted by the 

dramatic geologic phenomena, but it was not conscious of 

the fact that geology is selective with its curses as well as its 

blessings.

. Seismic subsurface survey in Belize: vehicles carrying vibrators. 

Photograph by Michael E. Long, National Geographic Society.

Figure 1 Poverty accents geologic disasters. In this village 

struck by the 1976 Guatemala earthquake, 100 percent of the 

adobe structures were destroyed.

Underdeveloped Nations Resource Problems and Solutions 33
The resource problems of underdeveloped nations 

must be approached on a long range, systematic basis. If 

there were simple, rapid solutions they would most likely 

have been found already. Hit or miss solutions, such as a 

sudden major mineral discovery, are not probable, and 

even then do not necessarily lead to national prosperity. 

This leads us to the most important resource of all 

people.

People—The Most Important Factor in Development

The single most important factor inhibiting resource 

development, in Guatemala as in most developing countries, is the lack of trained professionals working on the 

problems. The arduous field work required, without any 

compensating financial reward above that of the more 

"civilized" professions, has restricted field workers to a 

dedicated, or eccentric, few.

For priorities to have significance they must be developed, at least in part, by the participants: those who will 

carry out the plans and will be affected by their success or 

failure. If national governments, and their societies, decide 

that geology is sufficiently important, they will devise the 

appropriate incentives to produce and retain capable 

geologists. Although money is not the only means of 

reward, it is probably the easiest and quickest. A possible 

incentive would be to increase per diem field allowances to 

a level that would significantly augment the base salary, 

thus yielding an attractive total income. In this way it 

could not be claimed that salary increases were going only 

to a favored group. It would be obvious, rather, that just 

rewards are to be given to stimulate the greatest sacrifice, 

for in our developing countries all recognize that field 

work is indeed a sacrifice.

Once we have even a few capable, seasoned geoscientists we are in a position to discuss needs and priorities with 

our more experienced foreign colleagues. With a small 

nucleus of capable local professionals, sometimes with 

only one dedicated person, there is much that a country 

can do with the help of foreign geological assistance. 

Without such a local nucleus, benefits tend to be transitory 

and not necessarily directed at the country's needs.

Figure 2 Not one window of this properly constructed village 

schoolhouse was damaged as a result of the 1976 Guatemala 

earthquake.

Furthermore, without a capable local core of technicians, governments often feel themselves at the mercy of 

the foreign experts who come to develop their resources. 

Although this feeling has been more than justified 

historically, it can also produce a defensiveness that is 

completely counterproductive. Only with its own competent, trustworthy representatives can a country's national 

interests be truly protected on a flexible professional basis 

in the "give and take" necessary in resource undertakings. 

Otherwise, constant suspicion as to motives, engendered 

by ignorance, passes from the realm of caution to one 

dominated by an atmosphere of increased frustration, 

delay, expense, and wasted effort.

Figure 3 The 1976 Guatemala earthquake caused widespread 

destruction of adobe houses. Modern construction at upper right 

did not collapse. The village plaza was used for emergency housing and international rescue teams.

Of course, resource development projects must be 

carefully watched to safeguard national interests. Usually 

this has been done by retaining private foreign consultants, 

but they are often not completely trusted, and ofttimes 

they themselves are not appropriate for the special local 

situations. Their technical approaches have evolved from 

growth, schooling, and experience in research and applied 

sciences in more developed environments; consequently 

they tend to apply sophisticated criteria not suitable for 

completely raw situations. Experienced local technicians 

are more likely to be confided in and to make decisions 

based on the long term interests of their own country.

I have repeatedly used the terms "capable" and "experienced" in mentioning local professionals. This is essential. No matter how backward a nation, its government 

eventually shrewdly takes the measure of its professionals.

34 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Government officials may come to us for grave public pronouncements on everyday natural phenomena or minor 

isolated events such as landslides, volcanic eruptions, and 

small earthquakes, but when really important things are involved, such as money (not necessarily lives), they do not 

confide in us. They have not been impressed by our professional abilities. And frankly, they are inherently dubious 

of the abilities of any scientist willing to work for government pay scales and conditions.

Only by proving our productivity and earning the 

recognition of our foreign colleagues will we be able to ask 

our own governments to respect us.

I think that external influence can also be critical in 

developing a country's own geoscientists. Making the 

training of nationals as professionals an essential part of 

international projects, not just giving lip service to 

counterpart participation, will awaken the governments of 

the underdeveloped world to the need for their own geoscientists. If promised counterpart scientists are not effectively forthcoming, the entire project ought to be reconsidered and perhaps retailored so as to be within the scope 

of participating local professionals. Foreign teams are also 

often able to augment local per diem scales and thus make 

field work more attractive.

Another direct potential source of geoscientists has 

been the contractual obligation of foreign companies to 

give scholarships in selected fields. Unfortunately, even 

with the added attraction of higher future salaries with 

foreign companies, very few students have chosen geology. 

Again, that darn field work!

A great impetus has been given to the geosciences in 

Guatemala by the insistence of world funding institutions 

on including geologic studies as part of large civil projects. 

Prior to and other than this, geology has been ignored. 

Because of this foreign initiative, the Guatemalan governmental electrification institution now has geotechnical 

departments and pays considerably higher wages than the 

regular government scale in order to attract geologists.

A part-way step to relieving our professional manpower crisis would be the more frequent use of those consultants who are available in our country and other 

developing nations, instead of automatically turning to the 

industrialized countries for them. In the developing world 

there is a small reservoir of capable geoscientists that is 

neglected because of prejudice. Use of these people would 

stimulate the geosciences in our countries by providing opportunity commensurate with ability and would give firm 

proof that we are indeed capable of producing first-rate 

geoscientists.

SYSTEMATIC GEOLOGIC MAPPING-A PRIORITY 

FOR UNDERDEVELOPED COUNTRIES

As an initial and continuing resource project for our 

countries, systematic geologic quadrangle mapping at

scales suitable to outcrop and accessibility, perhaps at 

1:50,000, is a practical and essential step. Almost all geoscientific endeavor proceeds from this basis. It is an excellent training ground in science, logistics, and administration for all of us. It gives us a familiarity with the 

country, its resources possibilities, and its resources needs. 

With a geologic map in hand we do not feel so overwhelmed, the problems are not so unknown, not so forbidding. We have a starting place and we can make definite 

plans, no matter what the project. Geologic maps are of 

immense psychological as well as practical value and give 

immediate returns in terms of time and money as well. 

Because of constantly changing industrial requirements 

and economics we never know entirely what is or will be 

important in the earth sciences. Thus, the most complete 

geologic map possible under the circumstances seems to offer the best means of evaluating what we have and how we 

can prepare for the future.

Geologic mapping is a flexible thing especially suited 

to our countries. It can be done by one qualified person or 

by an entire well-staffed geologic survey. Furthermore, by 

providing minimal but dependable support, we can attract 

foreign graduate students and professors to help us do 

systematic mapping. On this basis, Guatemala already has 

an extraordinarily successful mapping program. We feel 

that we have proved the possibility of doing something, 

even with the most limited means, as long as the desire 

exists.

We must remind you all that operationally we exist on 

the most elementary plane. Our daily battle is for a jeep, 

for gasoline, for subsistence-level per diem in the field. The 

increased cost of motor fuel has made the situation even 

more critical. Governments often do not translate their 

much publicized desire for resource development into 

liberal provision for the most meager requirements of field 

work. But government and higher level officials do respond to budget requests for satellite and airborne imagery 

because, despite all caveats, they look upon these techniques as a short-cut to rapid resources development and a 

most welcome substitute for distasteful field work. That is 

why, when we are approached with large proposals for expensive, advanced technology we usually mutter something 

to the effect that we would be happy to settle for a jeep.

BASIC DATA COLLECTION

An enormous amount of resource work has been done 

in all our countries, of which no record is readily available 

and much of which is irretrievably lost. This includes publications, reports, maps and physical data such as samples, 

cores, and well cuttings. Before it is all lost, this information must be compiled, catalogued, and made easily 

available in the form of published bibliographies and 

reference collections.

Other types of essential data can be relatively cheaply 

gathered and presented on maps, or computerized and

Underdeveloped Nations Resource Problems and Solutions 35
stored for appropriate retrieval. This includes locations 

and inventories of mines and prospects, oil wells, water 

wells, fumaroles, springs, potential hydroelectric, irrigation, and water supply schemes, construction and roadbuilding materials, seismic records, earthquake and volcanic eruption histories, and anything else of potential economic interest.

Most grievous to mention is the failure to publicize or 

make locally available the results of investigations by international missions. The irresponsible handling and storage 

of these reports by local institutions is equally regrettable.

Some types of data must be routinely gathered over 

long time spans or must depend on instrumentation that is 

routinely kept operational for unforeseen moments. These 

require greater effort and expenditure, but the potential 

benefits are so great that they are easily justified. In 

Guatemala's case, I immediately think of fumarole 

temperatures and compositions for geothermal energy, 

and strong-motion instruments such as accelerographs for 

seismic engineering. The latter information, or the lack of 

it, has assumed enormous significance these days. With the 

disastrous Guatemala earthquake fresh in our minds, 

much attention is now being given to seismic resistance in 

dam building projects valued in the hundreds of millions 

of dollars. But there is very little solid information to work 

with; no accelerograph records were obtained during the 

earthquake. Thus, many extra millions are being poured 

into seismic resistant design, without any firm basis for the 

assumed accelerations. Accelerograph records would have 

been of incalculable value.

Figure 4 The 1974 eruption of Volcan Fuego, Guatemala. 

Studies of volcanic effects on agriculture would be of great importance to developing countries in volcanic areas.

BASIC RESOURCE NEEDS IN ALL SOCIETIES

There are certain resource needs that are so basic 

and yet appear so easily satisfied to most of us that we tend 

to ignore them. Perhaps the most important of these is 

water. Incalculable human energy, health, wealth, and 

even life are lost directly because of inadequate water supplies. Certainly we must devote greater efforts in this direction. The relief of elemental human misery is priceless.

Petroleum costs have risen so dramatically that energy 

resources have become an urgent priority. Previously 

uneconomical or high risk sources of energy have suddenly 

become attractive. Because of their high costs and high 

risks these undertakings more than ever also demand more 

extensive and intensive geoscientific investigation. 

Petroleum exploration merits almost any reasonable effort 

and usually gets adequate attention. Other fuels require 

more concentrated effort. Hydroelectricity especially requires the most risky of geological decisions, as we are 

forced into more complicated dam and tunnel sites. Cement and fertilizer are two other basic needs that we tend 

to ignore until we have shortages, at which time they 

become crippling needs.

Geologic hazards directly affect our resources situation. The seismic threat is all pervasive, but we tend to 

ignore it except for seismic-resistant design in high cost 

construction, and, of course, for internationally financed 

projects. There is a desperate need for appropriate seismic 

zoning and seismic-resistant building materials. Most such 

seismic design depends upon continual geoscientific investigations.

The volcanic eruption threat is generally exaggerated 

in our underdeveloped countries if one considers it in relation to the normal attrition rates due to poverty. The real 

threats are the mud flows and floods that follow eruptions, 

destroying crops, roads and bridges, thus creating food 

shortages and driving up the price of produce. For people 

already living a marginal existence, any minor increase in 

food costs can be catastrophic. Thus, what is greatly required in volcanic studies is a better understanding of the 

behavior and control of mud flows and river floods. The 

quantitative effects of ash eruptions on crops, and 

agricultural ways of benefiting from the ash, is another 

area of investigation promising enormous benefits that 

would counterbalance many times over our property losses 

from volcanic eruptions (fig. 4).

REGIONAL AND COOPERATIVE RESEARCH

So many of the resources problems of developing nations are similar that they merit direct cooperative attack 

as a unit and in the region of their source, so that the 

special social, economic, and climatic conditions of 

developing countries can be appropriately related to this 

geology. Earthquake, volcanic, and geothermal problems 

of the Circum-Pacific and Caribbean belts come to mind

36 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
immediately as other logical regional-geological groupings 

for cooperative effort.

The Association of Geoscientists for International 

Development (ACID) has been stimulating this concept 

recently by, among other things, sponsoring a tin 

workshop in Malaysia and a minerals symposium in 

Venezuela. The workshop included geologists from 

Thailand, Nigeria, and Bolivia, and the symposium on 

Mineral Exploration Techniques in Tropical Rain Forest 

Regions was held in Caracas. The success of both these 

group-oriented efforts has led AGID to propose the formation of an International Geoscience Research Institute 

for the development of mineral exploration techniques in 

tropical rain forest regions. It is pointed out that the 

tropical areas contain large Precambrian shield areas with 

high mineral potential but that they lag far behind the 

northern shield areas in commercial development. This difference can be attributed partly to extreme climatic influences that require novel exploration techniques and 

partly to other non-geologic factors, but the basic geologic 

potential is present. Such regional problems should be attacked on their own terms, for the benefit of each region's 

own people, something that we in tropical countries cannot 

currently expect from research that is oriented to the needs 

of the developed nations and the northern regions (fig. 5).

The AGID initiative should be vigorously supported 

not only for its intrinsic worthiness, but as an example of 

novel attempts to resolve the special and life-deciding 

resource problems of developing nations.

MAJOR CONCLUSIONS FOR THE TWENTY-FIRST 

CENTURY

1. For now and for the Twenty-first Century, the 

highest priority in the resources situation of 

underdeveloped nations is to find ways to increase 

the number of competent local geoscientists. 

Much increased field allowances and foreign 

pressure will help.

2. Systematic quadrangle geologic mapping provides 

the basis for all other work and is feasible for all 

developing countries.

3. Basic data collection and compilation is essential 

and feasible for all developing countries.

4. Water investigation must receive greater attention 

in the underdeveloped countries.

5. Research tailored to the special needs of developing nations is imperative. The International Geoscience Research Institute, proposed by AGID, 

for the development of mineral exploration techniques in tropical rain forest regions, is an effort 

in that direction, and should be supported.

Samuel Bonis

Institute Geografico Nacional

Division de Geologia

Av. las Americas 5-76, Zona 13

Guatemala City

Guatemala, C.A.

.« -rfiV^mf* •*.\f *** < ». 

Figure 5 Karst in northern Guatemala. Special exploration approaches must be developed for tropical rain forest regions.

Underdeveloped Nations Resource Problems and Solutions 37
The Outlook from Korea on Resources 

for the 21st Century

Byung Koo Hyun

Korea Research Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources

I am very much honored to be present at this centenary 

celebration of the U.S. Geological Survey, and I am 

pleased to speak about the expected resource problems for 

the 21st Century as seen from the Korean point of view.

MINERAL RESOURCES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Like some other countries, Korea now faces a serious 

shortage of fuel and of some mineral resources a shortage that has been intensified by the high economic growth 

achieved in the last two decades.

Basically, resource problems are largely a matter of 

supply and demand. For example, when there is a small demand, generally the problem does not arise. That was our 

situation in the 1950s when the economic policy of Korea 

was directed toward stabilization rather than growth, with 

stress on reestablishing the industrial facilities that had 

been destroyed and damaged during the Korean War.

The prewar industrial structure of Korea was very 

backward and, through the 1960s, consisted mostly of 

small-scale light industry that produced only everyday 

necessities, mainly for domestic use. Accordingly, the demand for raw materials was generally small. Industry 

relied solely upon coal and hydroelectric power for energy, 

and the country was self-sufficient in firewood, charcoal, 

hay, coal and the like for household use.

In fact Korea's demand for minerals, metallic and 

nonmetallic, was so small at that time that almost all her 

production of mineral resources, except anthracite coal, 

was exported. This export of mineral resources continued 

to the end of the 1960s. These included tungsten, iron, copper, lead, and zinc ores in the metallic groups, together 

with kaolin and small quantities of silica in the nonmetallic 

group. In the present situation it is indeed ironical to recall 

that Korea, with her meagre natural resources, once relied 

heavily upon the export of these minerals as a way to earn 

foreign exchange.

After a notable economic setback between 1957 and 

1960, a major change in economic policy was called for, 

and in the 1960s there was a big shift from stabilization to 

high economic growth through industrialization. The immediate effect of this new policy was to transform the 

existing light industry through expansion and 

technological innovation. Manufacturing particularly 

began to show marked growth far beyond that of other industrial sectors.

Subsequently, in the latter half of the 1960s the cement 

industry showed a great upsurge, and in the early 1970s the 

boom in the construction and electronics industries began. 

The changeover from coal to oil for railroad fuel in the 

early 1960s, coupled with later increases in road transport, 

and the general expansion of industrial facilities, were 

major factors contributing to a sudden increased demand 

for petroleum.

Korea's resource problems first became evident when 

her oil imports increased dramatically in the early 1970s; 

the situation became worse after the 1973 oil crisis. Also, a 

swift upturn in production in both the heavy and chemical 

industries naturally caused a greatly increased demand for 

industrial raw materials.

EXPLANATION 

•Demand ———Supply

Figure 1 Supply and demand of metallic minerals in Korea, 

1965-1978.

Figure 1 illustrates both supply and demand for iron, 

copper and lead ores from 1965 through 1978. Almost all 

iron ore production was exported until 1973, when a 

tremendous increase in demand occurred. As of 1978 

Korea's domestic production met only 14.2 percent of that 

demand. Copper ore figures indicate a self-reliant trend up 

to 1969; but in 1970 and especially after 1975 there was 

such a sharp rise in demand, that, since 1978, 99.34 percent 

of the demand has had to be met with imports. Lead ore 

also shows a great increase in demand after 1972. 

Although in this case domestic production is still a little 

ahead of demand, the gap between supply and demand is 

narrowing.

38 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The trends of energy supply and demand can be seen 

in figure 2. The energy import rate was 9.4 percent in 1962, 

51.2 percent in 1971, and 66.8 percent in 1978 in which 

year petroleum accounted for 61.2 percent of that total. 

Nuclear generated power was introduced in Korea in 1978, 

and it now supplies 1.6 percent of our total energy demand.

iOii> Biturmrtows Coal, 

: and Nuolear Povveri

Figure 2 Trends of energy supply and demand in Korea, 1962- 

1978. [Increasing rate of total energy demand: 7.9 percent; GNP growth 

rate: 9.3 percent]

The growth of Korea's gross national product and of 

its industrial development during the 1960s and 1970s are 

compared instructively in figure 3 with those of the 1950s. 

Primary industry, including agriculture, fisheries, and 

forestry, showed an average increase of 4.4 percent while 

other industry showed an average increase of 13.5 percent. 

All told, our GNP has increased 12 percent on the average. 

This reveals the close interrelationship between economic 

development and the resource problems.

Figure 3 Growth rate of Korea's GNP and industrial development, 1955-1975.

It should be noted here that during the build-up stage, 

Korea's heavy industry changed from a labor-intensive to a 

resources-consuming type.

As we stated earlier, resources problems arise when demand exceeds supply. This in turn involves consideration 

of another important factor, that domestic supply 

capability is directly related to the availability of resources.

Available Mineral Resources in Korea

Reserves of various major minerals in Korea (as of 

December 1978) are shown in figure 4. First among the fuel 

minerals is anthracite coal with proved deposits of approximately 1.5 million metric tons. Although short of the projected total domestic demand, this supply of coal may last 

for about another 30 years at current production levels. 

The uranium ore available in Korea is of a low grade (0.04 

percent U3O8 ), and the known deposits are estimated to be 

approximately 20 million metric tons. If, in the future, the 

technological and economic problems associated with its 

development can be solved, the domestic demand for 

uranium could be met to some extent.

Fuel Minerals

1500

1000

500

Anthracite

(0.04%)

Metallic Minerals

150 -

100

Figure 4 Estimated major mineral resources in Korea, as of December 1978.

Current estimates of available metallic mineral 

resources are: 126 million metric tons of iron ore (35.6 percent Fe); 14.2 million metric tons of copper ore (15 percent 

Cu); 17.4 million metric tons of lead and zinc ore (6.5 percent Pb + Zn); 26 million metric tons of tungsten ore (0.5 

percent WO3 ); and 1.5 million metric tons of molybdenum 

ores (0.5 percent MoS2 ). Of these, however, only lead and 

zinc can now be produced in sufficient quantities.

Turning to the group of nonmetallic minerals (fig. 5), 

the available resources are estimated to be: 6.6 million 

metric tons of graphite (3 percent fixed carbon); 38.8 

million metric tons of kaolin; 49.5 million metric tons of

2500

500

250

stone Sand btcne pnyliite

Kaolin Graphite

Figure 5 Estimated nonmetallic mineral resources in Korea, as 

of December 1978.

Korean Resources 39
pyrophyllite (28 SK [Seger Cone Test]); 2.5 billion metric 

tons of limestone (51 percent CaO), 250 million metric tons 

of silica stone (98 percent SiO2); and 499.6 million metric 

tons of silica sand (85 percent SiO2 ). At present these 

resources are ample for our requirements and may be adequate for domestic demands for tens of years to come.

Except for nonmetallic minerals, Korea's natural 

resources are quite meagre, and it is fairly evident that, 

unless significant progress is made in locating large-scale 

deep-lying mineral deposits, Korea will have no choice but 

to remain a resources-importing country. Many of the advanced industrialized countries face the same prospect.

IMPACT OF THE OIL CRISIS ON KOREA

The 1973 oil crisis has had a great impact on the 

modern world's industrial systems. In fact, possibly no 

other single event has caused such world-wide economic 

turmoil. The aftermath has kept us particularly aware of 

the limits and the preciousness of resources in general, and 

serves as a warning to us to be very careful in planning 

future development.

In spite of the adverse effects of the 1973 oil crisis, 

Korea has maintained her economic growth above 10 percent by sharing out the oil price hikes amongst all sectors 

of industry, and by ensuring overall public cooperation. 

Fortunately Korean industry was still largely laborintensive in 1973, and thus minimally dependent upon oil 

supplies. Korea was lucky enough to go through the subsequent economic turmoil without great difficulty. However, 

the rapid development of heavy industry, with its requirements for energy and minerals, and our people's 

changing life styles resulted in greatly increased demands 

for raw materials. The resulting difficulties in acquiring 

necessary oil and minerals made responsible Koreans 

realize that an adequate supply of resources was the key to 

further economic development. So in January 1978 the 

Korean Government created its Ministry of Energy and 

Resources.

Korea is now developing alternative energy sources to 

oil, encouraging the use of available domestic resources, 

making long-term plans for the importation of raw 

materials. By the year 2000, plans call for Korea's nuclear 

energy plants to furnish approximately 23 percent of the 

nation's total energy demand. Development of solar energy 

systems for home use, and planning of tidal power 

systems, are also being actively boosted. However, their 

contribution to the total energy requirement may be 

relatively insignificant.

MEASURES TO REDUCE THE RESOURCES 

PROBLEMS

Expansion of Exploration and Development Activities

The geological distribution and structure of Korea are 

complicated and, coupled with the rugged terrain, create

difficulties for mineral exploration. Furthermore, the 

small scale and irregular nature of discovered ore bodies 

greatly restrict mechanized mining. And, like other densely 

populated countries, we also face the additional problem 

that agricultural and urban land shortages generally confine mining to the mountainous areas (fig. 6).

With all this, Korea is trying hard to improve both its 

exploration methods and the development of its mineral 

resources. In the first place, efforts are being made to 

enhance the level of scientific studies on the genesis of the 

mineral deposits and to master modern geophysical and 

geochemical exploration techniques. Efforts should also be 

made to expand basic studies in geoscience in general, but 

our present staff and budget constraints permit neither. As 

conditions permit, these studies will be pushed forward. 

Also, as a means for rapid surveying of the national territory, airborne geophysical exploration is going to be conducted systematically, together with the utilization of 

remote sensing data.

All these techniques are being applied not only on 

land, but also in exploration in the near offshore areas. 

Such efforts will next be extended to the continental 

shelves. As soon as these are all well in hand and employing the latest technology, we will turn to the exploration of 

overseas resources. As a step further, we hope to have opportunities to participate in international cooperative 

surveys of the deep sea and the polar zones.

However, development of our deep-lying resources 

demands increasing attention because most of the mines in 

Korea are not open pits, but lie deep underground. Thus 

mining requires a high degree of technology and safety 

precautions for operation. The latter is difficult and lowers 

productivity. Recently too, with living standards rising and 

job opportunities increasing in both manufacturing and 

construction, it is becoming difficult to persuade men to 

work in mines with bad working conditions. Therefore 

highly mechanized mining is urgently called for. This 

employment situation is particularly true in coal mines at 

present, but it will soon spread to the deep metallic mines 

as well.

Industrial hazards due to resources development are 

not yet serious in Korea. Sometimes, of course, examples 

of these are a landslide or an inrush of underground water 

in some of the coal mining areas. This kind of trouble is 

brought to the attention of mining engineers so that solutions can be devised. Wastes from metallic ores are being 

put to good use by civil engineers in construction projects. 

Nevertheless, because of continuing resources development, we are going to face industrial hazards or nuisances 

that run counter to people's awareness of the need for 

nature preservation. These two conflicting matters raise 

problems that have to be worked out.

Figure 6 Topographic map of Korea. ^

40 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
South Korea

Internal administrative

boundary

* Naoona!cap*al 

O Internal adm«n«stratwe

capital

Rairoad 

Road

EMTAT1ON 

NOT «CCES«*R(LV AUTHORITATIVE

Korean Resources 41
Effective Utilization of Resources

I want to touch now on three ways of effective conservation of resources that are conducive to providing shortor long-term solutions to the scarcity of resources.

First, savings by cutting back on the use of resources 

can be increased. Like many other countries, Korea is 

already practicing such economies as a short-term 

measure. Examples include turning out one light in each 

home, controls on heating and cooling systems, no fuel 

deliveries over the weekend, and suspension of nighttime 

sports games. These are now general practices in Korea. 

For the long term, ideas and plans are being envisaged and 

developed in order to reorganize the high-energyconsuming industrial structure into a low-energy consumption or oil substitute type.

Second, recovery or recycling of used resources can be 

increased. Korea was experienced in the post-war period in 

the collection and reuse of waste products. Improved 

reutilization of industrial wastes could be of much help in 

our efforts toward resources conservation if it is more 

systematized on a larger scale. This would also help reduce 

industrial hazards.

Third, I can cite the development of not-yet-used 

resources. The chemical elements in use by the end of the 

19th Century numbered only 22, but scientific technology 

and industry increased that number to 71 by 1970, for a 

223 percent increase. Many of the elements used in recent 

years are rare elements, and low-grade ores of rare 

elements are expected to be used much more in the years to 

come. In addition, major resources that, until recently, 

have been derived from high-grade ores can now be utilized with low-grade ones because of advances in related 

technology. Therefore, further developments in large-scale 

ore dressing and refining technology for low-grade minerals will open the possibility for efficient uses of large 

amounts of hitherto uneconomical resources. Therefore, 

in the face of an unknown world to come, we geoscientists 

should use present trends to predict our mineral potential 

for the future. We should also assist in improving development and refining methods for the most efficient processing of available minerals.

Increase in International Cooperation in Relation to 

Resources

I should like to speak of international cooperation in 

solving resources problems. International cooperation has 

two aspects the economical and the technical. Regarding 

technical cooperation, it can be briefly noted here that 

technical levels in the geosciences vary from country to 

country. Besides, the so-called resource nationalism which 

emerged before and after the oil crisis leads countries to explore and develop their own resources independently and 

with their own national capabilities.

Technical cooperation would be good for furthering 

mutual understanding between the nations. Korea has 

technical cooperation programs with such countries as the 

United States, England, West Germany, France, Australia, and Japan. As for cooperation with neighbouring 

countries in the field of geoscience, Korea is a member of 

the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the 

Pacific (ESCAP), under United Nations' sponsorship. Two 

standing geoscientific organizations under ESCAP are the 

Committee for Coordination of Joint Prospecting for 

Mineral Resources in Asian Offshore Area (CCOP) and 

the Regional Mineral Resources Development Center 

(RMRDC). Through these organizations we are exchanging 

geoscientific information on the land and continental 

shelves as well as on technology. Joint surveys are also 

conducted from time to time.

Korea and Japan have recently initiated a joint continental shelf oil development project; this is a good example of an undertaking of mutual interest to the two countries. It is a project that is productive not only because of 

the opportunity for technical and economic cooperation, 

but also because it offers a way to work out possible 

resource disputes between the two adjacent countries. Such 

cooperation should narrow technical gaps between the 

countries in a short time and also accelerate the solution of 

their common problems. International cooperation in the 

economic sector should aim at overcoming supply-demand 

difficulties. Resource markets have so far been based upon 

the resources-exporting countries; some major world 

enterprises should in the future be structured so as to give 

resources-importing countries the opportunity to actively 

participate in them. Solutions should, first of all, be 

sought rationally within the framework of current economic cooperation and always with mutual interests 

foremost. Accordingly, regional cooperation systems like 

the European Economic Community should first be developed and then, within such structures, efforts should be 

made to solve the resource problems.

I would like to make a few remarks about the Korea 

Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources (KIGAM), 

which is a corporate body inaugurated in 1976. KIGAM is a 

government-financed institute engaged in surveys, exploration, development, and processing of mineral resources. It 

also performs basic studies in the geosciences. As a geoscience research organization unique in Korea, KIGAM 

most closely resembles the Bureau de Recherches geologiques et minieres (BRGM) of France.

Geoscience had long been comparatively ignored as a 

field of science in Korea, but recently, with the emergence 

of resource problems, it has fortunately begun to be important. But at present, we are lacking in competent geoscientists in Korea and trying hard to get highly qualified 

earth scientists to carry out our various missions. We are 

also making efforts to modernize all our research equipment and facilities. With all this scheduled for achievement

42 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
in the near future, I hope and am sure that we Korean geo- obligations and I, as one of them, am happy and proud to 

scientists will be able to contribute to the advancement of shoulder a part of those common burdens, 

not only Korea but also the whole world.

Insofar as all these efforts can only bear fruit in common endeavors and mutual understanding and coopera- pyu -f t ° yU

tion among the nations, our future days will either be KoTeaResearch Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources 

bright or dark. On this critical matter of prosperity or (KIGAM) 

poverty the wisdom of mankind will be tested. 219-5, Garibong-dong

Finally, in this grave and critical problem of resources Youngdeungpo-gu 

we geoscientists have tremendous responsibilities and Seoul, Korea 150-06

Korean Resources 43
Discussion

W. C. Overstreet

U.S. Geological Survey, Retired

In expressing appreciation to Dr. Bonis and Director 

Hyun for their presentations of Guatemalan and Korean 

perspectives of problems and requirements for identifying, 

exploring, and developing mineral resources for the future, 

and before commencing discussion, it is appropriate to 

comment briefly on these views.

One speaker opened with the solemn observation that 

resources in an underdeveloped country represent the slim 

margin between life and death, which is not an abstraction 

easily to be ignored by geoscientists. Indeed, acquaintance 

with this problem in its various forms imbues this symposium. The other speaker closed by observing that the 

quality of the future depends on the results of common 

endeavors, mutual understanding, and cooperation among 

nations, and that upon this critical matter mankind will be 

tested in its wisdom. Those closing remarks identify the 

various national and international political processes as 

controlling factors in man's utilization of the great 

technical advances already achieved in identifying, exploring, and developing resources. Future trends in political 

awareness may not be as predictable as the nearly exponential rise in the technology of mineral exploration and exploitation; hence, the geologic profession needs to continue to alert appropriate administrative bodies to the 

human needs and technical significance of advances in 

science that improve our ability to identify, explore, and 

develop geologic resources.

Common points made by both speakers recognize the 

need to improve the training of geologic staff, thus 

upgrading their influence in their own countries, and to 

conduct research in basic geology, including general 

geologic mapping. In one paper, a forceful plea is made 

for the support of simple procedures and equipment, but 

both speakers see the need for improvements in methods of 

mineral exploration, particularly for those deposits that 

are concealed and have thus escaped detection. Such concealed deposits will become the major source for future 

discoveries of mineral raw materials throughout the world. 

The search for concealed deposits can be expected to involve particularly the integrated use of advances in conceptualization and modeling of ore deposits and improvements in geophysical and geochemical exploration as 

well as the remote sensing of mineral deposits. Happily, 

the problem of source is perceived, and the methods of 

searching for and development of mineral resources are 

constantly improving. In particular, the exploration 

geochemists are investigating methods of anomaly 

enhancement to develop procedures for use in the Arctic 

and in the arid or humid tropics where, as one speaker 

showed, the problems of mineral exploration are particularly intractable.

W. C. Overstreet

900 E. Garcia Street

Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501

44 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Figure 1 This small Guatemalan village, located on the fault break of the 1976 earthquake, is almost completely devastated. Ground 

fractures can be seen in the lower center of the photograph. (Photograph by S. Bonis).

Discussion 45
An Overview of Problems and Requirements for 

Identifying, Exploring, and Developing 

Resources —The Outlook from Venezuela

Henrique J. Lavie

Ministerio de Energia y Minas

Direccion General Sectorial de Minas y Ceologia, Venezuela

INTRODUCTION

Venezuela is well known for its oil resources and its active membership in OPEC. Unfortunately, little information concerning the efforts and results of the exploration 

of the other mineral resources of Venezuela is available 

outside Venezuela.

In this report, I will attempt to summarize the information that we now have about energy and other mineral 

resources, giving special emphasis to the latter. This will 

permit an overall review of the problems that have been encountered in the exploration, evaluation, and development 

of the mineral resources of Venezuela.

In the field of energy resources, I will briefly consider 

oil and gas, and hydroelectric power, which are relatively 

well known, and will describe more fully coal, geothermal 

energy, and radioactive minerals, which are less well 

known outside Venezuela. Non-energy minerals of 

Venezuela will be described and attention will be given to 

the identification of the principal problems and requirements that have to be faced in the complex task of inventorying the potential of such minerals in Venezuela.

ENERGY RESOURCES 

Oil and Gas

Venezuela has nationalized its oil industry, 

establishing four main operating companies under a 

holding company, plus an exploration unit. Technological 

assistance contracts have been arranged with former concessionaires. Exploration, development, and marketing 

programs are prepared periodically by the operating companies for presentation to the holding company. These 

programs are subject to approval by the Ministry of 

Energy and Mines, the policy-making organization of the 

Venezuelan government. The Minister of Energy and 

Mines is also the government representative in the holding 

company and acts as chairman of the directive council. 

Policies concerning exploration, evaluation, and development of oil and gas are established by the Ministry of 

Energy and Mines in light of the best interest of the country and subject to its international agreements.

The petroleum potential of Venezuela, as estimated by 

the Ministry of Energy and Mines in December 1978, is as 

follows:

Proven reserves ______ 18,279,382,000 barrels

Semi-proven reserves ____ 8,440,135,000 barrels

Non-proven reserves ____ 7,706,107,000 barrels

Total _______ 34,425,624,000 barrels

This estimate does not include petroleum in the Orinoco 

Oil Belt, possible offshore petroleum, and petroleum in 

non-traditional areas or sources such as tar sands and 

asphaltites. The Ministry of Energy and Mines has 

estimated natural gas reserves of Venezuela as follows:

Associated gas ____________ 40.3 x 10 12 ft3 

Non-associated gas _________ 1.6xl012 ft3

Total ____________ 41.9xl012 ft3

Non-official estimates of total gas resources, issued by the 

Ministry of Energy and Mines, are on the order of 

175 xlO12 cubic feet.

It is not necessary to discuss exploration problems 

faced by the oil industry of Venezuela, since they are the 

same as in the rest of the world. Offshore exploration, 

based on the latest and most advanced technology, has 

begun recently. Heavy-crude processing technology, 

secondary recovery, and changes in refining standards are 

some of the most important recent goals set for the 

petroleum industry of Venezuela.

Coal

Because of the large oil and natural gas reserves, the 

development of coal resources in Venezuela is of low 

priority. However, the efficiency of an energy policy of a 

nation requires the development and coordination of all its 

energy resources, and Venezuela has large coal resources 

that should be developed as a means of diversifying its 

energy base.

46 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Three coal basins are known in Venezuela: Los Andes, 

Naricual, and Zulia (fig. 1). The only coal production in 

Venezuela is from deposits in the Los Andes basin, the 

most important of which are near Lobatera, State of 

Tachira, which yield more than 95 percent of present 

domestic production. The cement factory of Tachira purchases most of this coal. Yearly production is 60,000 

metric tons with proven reserves of 3 million metric tons, 

and the potential is estimated to exceed 20 million metric 

tons. The coal is suitable for mixing with imported coals 

for a variety of uses and for coke for some metallurgical 

processes. The Santo Domingo mine, which produces 

steam coal, is also in the State of Tachira. It has estimated 

reserves of 200 million metric tons. Coal near Rubio, State 

of Tachira, is of better quality and appears to be sufficient 

in quantity for mine development. This deposit is presently 

being evaluated.

Studies now underway in the Naricual basin indicate 

reserves of 14 million metric tons of coal and a total potential resource of 60 million tons. A regional governmental

corporation, CORPORIENTE, has taken out a concession of 

4,500 hectares in this basin with the expectation of opening 

a mine having the capacity to produce 250,000-300,000 

metric tons of coal per year. The coal may be used as fuel 

for local consumption and for production of electrometallurgical coke. According to existing evidence, coal 

in the Naricual basin extends for about 200 km, and total 

resources of the basin are estimated to be many times that 

of the Naricual area.

The Zulia coal basin, in western Venezuela, has large 

resources of high-grade coal. CORPOZULIA, a regional 

governmental corporation, was recently granted an 

8,250-hectare concession in this basin between the 

Guasare, Socuy, and Cachiri Rivers. Drilling on 600 hectares of this concession shows reserves of 161 million 

metric tons of coal and indicated reserves of 3,670 million 

tons. The planned yearly production from deposits here 

will be sufficient to supply a 2,000-megawatt steam power 

plant and to yield blast furnace coke for production of 5 

million metric tons of steel.

Figure 1 Sedimentary basins of the natural gas and coal reserves in Venezuela (Source: Carta Semanal, Volume XX N° 25, 1977).

EXPLANATION

PROVEN GAS RESERVES 

POTENTIAL GAS RESERVES 

SEDIMENTARY BASINS AND SUB-BASINS 

KNOWN CARBONIFEROUS ZONES

Venezuelan Resources 47
Coal also is known to occur in other regions of 

Venezuela as follows: 

Eastern Venezuela:

1. An area of 50,000 hectares south of Pariaguanhas 

several coal beds having an accumulated thickness 

of 30 meters.

2. An area of 120,000 hectares north of the Orinoco 

River has several coal beds with an accumulated 

thickness of 50 meters.

3. An area of 20,000 hectares along the junction of 

the States of Anzoategui and Monagas has coal 

beds with accumulated thickness varying from 2 

to 50 meters. Another 20,000 hectare area between 

these two states has coal beds with an accumulated 

thickness of about 45 meters.

4. Other coal-bearing areas about which little is 

known include the Naricual sub-basin, 

Quebrad6n, Parapara, Ortiz, Cara River, 

Taguay, Altagracia de Orituco, and Fila Maestra.

Western Venezuela:

The following geological formations in western 

Venezuela are known to contain coal beds:

1. Los Ranchos and Palmarito formations, State of 

Zulia

2. Isnotu and Palmarito formations, State of 

Tachira

3. Urumaco, Cerro Pelado and Agua Clara formations, States of Merida, Trujillo, Barinas, Portuguesa, and Falc6n.

Solar Energy and Wind Power

Solar energy is a feasible energy source in Venezuela, 

particularly for heating in the colder regions of the country, for heating of water throughout the country, and 

finally for obtaining pure drinking water.

Solar energy and wind power are potentially of great 

importance to rural regions of Venezuela, where installation of electric, irrigation, and potable water systems are 

economically unfavorable. The solar energy and wind 

power potential of several rural regions have been studied, 

with results as follows:

Falcon _______

Tablazo ______

Orchila Island _ 

Me"rida _______

Barcelona ____

Barquisimeto _ 

Ciudad Bolivar

Radiation 

(cal/cm2 day)

532

488

506

481

540

460

Wind (km/hr)

20

20.3

21.5

12.9

These data are based on measurements during the last 

twenty years and represent reliable information for the implementation of solar or wind power systems. Furthermore, it is estimated that the meteorological conditions of 

other islands in the federal territories are similar to those 

of Orchila Island, and that the use of solar and wind power 

are economically favorable at present.

Production of drinking water on the Caribbean 

Islands of Venezuela by solar energy could be of particular 

importance. For example, on Orchila Island, a desalinization plant of approximately 4,000 meters2 , powered by 

solar energy, would produce 8,000 liters of distilled water 

per day. Wind power might also be used on these islands 

for generation of electricity and for pumping of water. 

Solar energy could also supply photovoltaic electricity to 

installations such as navigation lights, radio systems, relay 

stations and residences.

Geothermal Energy

Venezuela offers geologically favorable areas for the 

installation of geothermal facilities for industrial use. Until 

the present, however, there has been no evaluation of the 

magnitude of the potential for geothermal energy.

For convenience of discussion, Venezuela is divided 

into three main geothermal regions; eastern, central, and 

western. The western region is an extension of the orogenic 

belt whereas the eastern and central regions are associated 

with the south border of the Caribbean Plate. The eastern 

region includes areas in the State of Sucre and the northern 

part of the State of Monagas. Geothermal systems in these 

areas are associated with large faults, related to the convergent margin of the Caribbean Tectonic Plate and the 

South American Tectonic Plate. Among these are the El 

Pilar and the San Francisco Faults. The western region is 

characterized by Cenozoic tectonism and active structural 

systems such as the Bocono Fault. The central region is 

dominated by block-fault structures of Cenozoic age, such 

as the Lake of Valencia graben and the Villa de Cur a 

allochthonous block.

In addition to the above-mentioned regions, thermal 

anomalies occur in the margins of the petroliferous basins 

of Barinas, Apure, and Maturin. High thermal gradients 

have been found in oil wells drilled in these basins. They 

require further study as possible sources of energy for 

recovery of heavy crudes.

Of the forty-seven geothermal fields proven by drilling 

up to 1977, approximately 56 percent are associated with 

Quaternary volcanic rocks, 21 percent with block-fault 

structures in highly seismic regions without Quaternary 

volcanic rocks, and 13 percent are away from seismic and 

volcanic zones.

In 1974-75, the first steps were taken to evaluate the 

country's geothermal resources by a group of experts from 

the Ministry of Mines and Hydrocarbons (now the 

Ministry of Energy and Mines) and the Compania 

Anomina de Administration y Fomento Electrico

48 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
(Venezuela) (CADAFE), with the cooperation of national and 

international advisors. The evaluation included geological, 

geophysical, and geochemical field studies and interpretation of the results of these studies and of previous 

geological and geophysical studies that had been carried 

out for a variety of reasons.

As of 1979, there was sufficient information available 

to initiate a feasibility study for geothermal exploration as 

conceived by the Latin American Organization of Energy 

(OLADE). The main objective of this program was to 

establish at the national level the availability of geothermal 

fluids for industrial use. Ongoing studies of geothermal 

resources are expected to supply the data needed to 

evaluate the geothermal energy potential by 1982. These 

studies will lead to evaluating some 12,500 square 

kilometers, which include the El Pilar-Casanay zone where 

some surveying has already been done. The continuation 

of the survey in the western and central regions will depend 

on the results obtained in the eastern region.

According to present understanding of the geology of 

the eastern region, the following steps could be accomplished in one year:

1. Compilation, analysis, and interpretation of the 

region's geological, geophysical, geochemical, 

hydrometeorological, and hydrological information

2. Inventory of thermal manifestations

3. Reinterpretation and reevaluation of all existing 

geological and geophysical studies

Once these preliminary investigations are completed, the 

following studies will be carried out in the eastern region:

1. Preparation of thermal gradient maps

2. Installation of microseismic monitors

3. Preparation of detailed technical-structural maps

4. Carry out gravimetric-magnetic surveys

5. Carry out geoelectric surveys

6. Interpret the hydrologic balances of basins

7. Carry out hydrogeochemistry studies

8. Evaluate feasibility phase with the participation 

of national and international experts

9. Drill at least three deep exploration wells

10. Make a preliminary evaluation of geothermal 

fields

11. Identify areas having the best potential for 

exploitation

Radioactive Minerals

The search for radioactive minerals in Venezuela dates 

back to 1950, when the Direccion de Geologia first carried 

out exploration with the cooperation of the U.S. Atomic 

Energy Commission. Later in the sixties, additional exploration was carried out and some locations of interest 

were defined. The situation of the uranium world market

and national priorities halted the exploration programs at 

that time. In the seventies, an integrated areal survey, 

which included radiometric surveys, was made for most of 

Venezuela. The energy crisis in 1973 and the renewed interest in nuclear resources brought about new plans for 

organizing a systematic survey of radioactive minerals of 

Venezuela. An office was established to be responsible for 

nuclear energy and the Direccion de Geologia and the Raw 

Materials Division of CONAN were designated as the agencies responsible for exploration for radioactive minerals.

The Direccion de Geologia and CONAN have identified 

several sites as environments for accumulations of radioactive minerals, as follows: (1) Triassic-Jurassic rocks in the 

Andean Cordillera and Perija Sierra; (2) phosphate rocks 

of the Upper Cretaceous; (3) conglomerates and sandstones of the Precambrian Roraima Group; and (4) certain 

Precambrian granites.

Thorium has been found in Amazon Territory, in the 

area of Cerro Impacto where a carbonatite is covered by a 

lateritic capping rich in iron, thorium, niobium, base 

metals, and rare earths.

In conclusion, trace amounts of radioactive minerals 

have been found in a variety of geologic environments in 

Venezuela, but not enough work has been done to define 

the economic potential of these minerals. The lack of 

trained personnel and technology for evaluating 

anomalous areas has inhibited the evaluation of radioactive minerals.

Requirements for Most Effective Development of Energy 

Resources in Venezuela

The following factors should be considered in the 

development of Venezuela's energy resources:

1. The production rates of oil and gas should be 

determined by requirements for internal use and 

the need of export dollars for industrial development.

2. Conservation practices should be aimed at prolongation of oil and natural gas production to give 

the maximum time to develop alternative energy 

sources.

3. The development of energy resources such as coal, 

nuclear and other non-conventional energy resources of Venezuela will require acquisition of 

knowledge and technologies not yet utilized in the 

country and training of engineers and workers in 

the application of new technology.

4. The development of basic industries such as iron 

and steel production and electric power generation 

should be accelerated as a base for industrial development of Venezuela.

5. Coal should be utilized in the industrialization of 

Venezuela as fuel, for steam power electric generation, and for manufacture of siderurgical coke.

Venezuelan Resources 49
Metallic and Nonmetallic Mineral Resources

Systematic geological exploration and prospecting for 

metallic and nonmetallic minerals has produced a large 

number of geological maps that are basic to current and 

future exploration programs. Large-scale aerial surveys 

and remote sensing techniques have been utilized to explore areas of difficult access in the remote jungle and 

mountainous parts of the country. Crews of the Direccion 

de Geologia, operating from base camps in remote areas 

and base offices in the larger cities, have been able to complete a preliminary evaluation of the mineral resources and 

to locate many potential mineral deposits in areas where 

such deposits had previously not been known. Only the 

most important mineral deposits can be mentioned here. 

Some of these deposits are being exploited, others are in 

the feasibility study stage, and others are at the stage of 

preliminary exploration.

Venezuela's most important metallic mineral resource 

is iron ore, and current reserves stand at 2,059 million tons 

of ore having 60 percent Fe2 O3 . All known deposits are in 

ferruginous quartzites in the Precambrian shields of 

Estado Bolivar. The industry, which originally was under 

control of the U.S. Steel Company and the Bethlehem 

Steel Company, is now operated by a national company 

called Ferrominera.

Venezuela produced 410,535,534 metric tons of iron ore 

between 1950 and 1977. Of this production, 387,749,776 tons 

were exported, with the United States leading the market with 

71 percent of the total and the rest going mainly to European 

markets. The growing iron industry of Venezuela has 

consumed only 3 percent of total production.

Bauxite recently has been discovered in Venezuela as 

the result of a major systematic exploration program of the 

Direccion de Geologia. Since Venezuela has tremendous 

hydroelectric potential, it has been a goal to locate bauxite 

in sufficient quantity to support a strong aluminum industry. The systematic survey of the Guayana Shield and 

the exhaustive studies of the lateritization processes of the 

tropics finally paid off with the discovery of several areas 

with potentially commercial bauxite deposits. Studies now 

underway will evaluate size and grade of these deposits.

The most favorable bauxite areas are in the lateritized 

peneplain on the Precambrian Parguaza Granite in the 

eastern part of the State of Bolivar. Preliminary studies indicated the existence of at least one large deposit of commercial bauxite. Preliminary evaluation by the Corporaci6n Venezolana de Guayana indicates reserves of 500 

million tons of bauxite suitable for the Bayer process. 

Feasibility studies for production of aluminum from this 

bauxite are now underway. Other localities in the Guayana 

Shield have high-alumina laterites, which are another 

possible source of aluminum.

Gold and diamonds are known to occur in the Precambrian Guayana Shield. For example, many gold-bearing 

quartz veins occur in the lava flows of the Pastora Formation near El Callao, Turneremo, and the El Dorado area in 

the southeastern part of the State of Bolivar. Also, the 

lower basal conglomerate of the Roraima Formation contains gold that is liberated during erosion and is concentrated in placer deposits of streams draining areas where 

this conglomerate is exposed. Between 1955 and 1977, an 

average of 1 million grams of gold were produced yearly 

from such placer deposits.

A project has been completed by the Ministry of 

Energy and Mines to start production of gold in 1980 by 

the state-owned Minerven Company from an estimated 

2 1/2 million tons of ore with an average of 12 grams Au per 

ton. Individual operators plan to start operating small 

mines in the same area. The potential of the gold in this 

area is now being tested by the Direccion de Geologia to 

provide basic information for large-scale development.

Alluvial deposits in the State of Bolivar have yielded 

excellent quality diamonds. Diamond mining now being 

carried out is primitive, and monitoring and control of 

production by the government is difficult. In 1977, recorded diamond production was valued at 107 million 

bolivars in fiscal revenues, equivalent to 10.4 percent of 

the recorded value of diamonds produced. The government, conscious of the potential of diamonds, has started a 

large-scale program with two goals: (1) to control indiscriminate exploitation of alluvial deposits; and (2) to 

locate the primary sources (kimberlite pipes) of the 

diamonds.

In general, the aforementioned minerals (iron, 

diamonds, gold, and coal) made up the total value of 

Venezuela's mine production in 1977, which amounted to 

1,036 million bolivars, of which 88 percent was iron ore.

Several other types of metallic and nonmetallic 

mineral deposits exist in Venezuela. Reserves of lateritic 

nickel at Loma de Hierro are on the order of 57 million 

tons of an average of 1.5 percent nickel. A polymetallic 

base metal deposit at Bailadores in the Andean region of 

western Venezuela contains significant resources of copper, lead, and zinc. Alkaline intrusive complexes in the 

southern part of the Amazon Territory contain tin and 

other heavy minerals. Titanium has been identified in the 

metamorphic complex near San Quintin in the northcentral part of Venezuela. Phosphates, gypsum, magnesite, kaolin, barite, and industrial minerals such as 

limestone, sand, and others are in many parts of the country. One of the most promising discoveries is the carbonatite complex of Cerro Impacto in the Amazon Territory. This carbonatite complex is a possible source of 

radioactive minerals.

50 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
PROBLEMS OF EXPLORATION AND DEVELOPMENT

Private capital is not prone to invest money in mining 

ventures in Venezuela for the following reasons:

1. Obsolete mining laws

2. Lack of definitions in certain mining policies

3. More favorable environments for investments in 

other areas of the economy of the country

4. Lack of mining tradition on a small scale

5. An oil-influenced economic environment that 

prevents or minimizes other activities

Tropical rain forest covers approximately 23 million 

km2 of the Earth's surface between the Tropic of Cancer to 

the north of the Equator and the Tropic of Capricorn to 

the south. The main regions of tropical jungle cover are the 

Amazon Basin, Central America, West Central Africa, 

and the Indonesia/Southeast Asian region. The countries 

in this region are, for the most part, poor and underdeveloped, each with a generally low per capita income. 

The economy of these countries is supported chiefly by 

primitive agricultural activities and, in a few cases, the exploitation of raw materials.

Geologically speaking these areas are distinguished by 

vast extensions of Precambrian shields and post-Paleozoic 

folded sedimentary rocks and associated plutonic and volcanic rocks. Precambrian shield areas, both within and 

outside the area of tropical rain forests, currently are the 

sources of most of the nickel, titanium, and cobalt consumed by the industrialized nations and contribute more 

than 60 percent of the iron ore, most of the uranium and 

platinum, 75 percent of the gold, more than 30 percent of 

the manganese, 25 percent of the copper, and substantial 

proportions of the molybdenum, tin, tungsten, bismuth, 

and arsenic. On the other hand, the post-Paleozoic folded 

rocks with their igneous association (both volcanic and 

plutonic) have shown significant mineral potential in the 

Andes and in southeast Asia.

Considering that most mineral production from 

Precambrian shields and post-Paleozoic rocks is from outside the tropical rain forest areas, one may conclude that: 

(1) tropical rain forest areas are still essentially unexplored, 

and (2) the mineral potential of these regions may be 

similar to equivalent geological areas in other climatic environments. The main reason for less mineral exploration 

in tropical rain forest areas is that such exploration is difficult and expensive. Some of the factors inhibiting exploration in tropical rain forests are as follows:

1. Paucity of geological information.

2. Inaccessibility due to dense forest cover.

3. Deep lateritic soils obscure the geology and 

mineral deposits.

4. Exploration equipment has to withstand severe 

conditions of humidity and temperature, thus requiring special protection.

5. Shortage of professionals experienced in exploration in tropical rain forest environments.

6. Exploration requires establishment of complex 

operation centers to support field crews at costs 

that may be excessive for countries with weak 

economies.

7. The lack of economic development in most of 

these countries makes it almost impossible to 

carry out the long-term mineral exploration program that is needed for a proper evaluation of the 

mineral potential.

8. Raw materials prices established by multinational 

companies do not stimulate less-developed countries, whose mineral production responds to international requirements, to invest in mining ventures that may not be profitable or stable enough 

to justify the high costs of operations and the 

transfer of technology.

Problems associated with mineral exploration in 

tropical rain forest areas have been identified and openly 

discussed in the United Nations preparatory meetings in 

1963 and 1970 (Bangkok and Ceylon University), by the 

Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and by the Association of Geoscientists for 

International Development (AGID) in 1977 (Caracas). At 

the last meeting the countries with tropical rain forest areas 

reiterated the multiple problems and frustrations in 

mineral exploration. It became clear that little progress has 

been made in research and exploration during these last 

years, despite the fact that the problem areas had been 

clearly identified.

Henrique J. Lavie

Director

Direccion General Sectional de Minas y Geologia

Ministerio de Energfa y Minas

Torre Norte, Piso 27

Centre Simon Bolivar

Caracas, Venezuela

Venezuelan Resources 51
Problems and Requirements for 

Identifying, Exploring, and Developing 

Resources —The Outlook from Egypt

G. A. Moustafa

Chairman, Geological Survey and Mining Authority of Egypt

LOCATION AND GEOGRAPHICAL BACKGROUND

Egypt is located on the northeast corner of Africa, 

overlooking the Mediterranean Sea and with a coast that 

stretches approximately 1,000 kilometers in an east-west 

direction (fig. 1). To the east, the Red Sea bounds the 

country, trending nearly northwest-southeast. Again, here 

the coast is almost 1,000 kilometers in length; thus giving 

Egypt a total area of approximately one million square 

kilometers, or 3 percent of the total area of Africa. Lying 

on the boundary line between the cooler temperate and the 

hotter tropical belts of the Earth's surface, Egypt forms an 

integral part of the great African Sahara.

Through the wilderness of the Sahara flows the great 

river Nile, giving fertility to the desert and attracting people to live on its banks. The shape of the Nile Valley is 

usually compared with the lotus, the linear slot-like Upper 

Egypt being the stem, the Faiyum Oasis to the west the 

bud, the broad fan-like delta of Lower Egypt the flower. 

Its great river, the Nile, debouches its water northwards 

into the Mediterranean Sea.

To historians, Egypt is largely restricted to the Nile 

Valley that has been the scene of human activity through 

so many centuries.

To geologists, the Egypt of most importance is that 

vast desert area of one million square kilometers lying on 

both sides of the valley. This desert stretches from the 

Mediterranean on the north to the desolate regions of 

northern Sudan in the south, from the Great Sand Sea near 

the Libyan borders to the Levant on the northeast and the 

Red Sea on the east.

To archaeologists, Egypt means both the valley and 

the desert. The desert shows clear evidence of having been 

occupied in prehistoric times by nomadic hunters and temporary settlers, and the valley has great monuments of 

rural civilizations that flourished from 5,000 years ago.

Exploitation of minerals started very early in Egyptian 

history; the Pharaohs' men roved the deserts searching for 

valuable minerals, especially gold and gemstones. Nearly 

every gold-bearing quartz vein was investigated by the old 

Egyptians, not only in the Eastern Desert but also in the 

Sudanese desert to the south. Those ancients were talented 

enough to look for these minerals in their suitable

metallogenic provinces. They even searched the minor outcrops of igneous-metamorphic complex of the Western 

Desert of Egypt and they were able to locate the precious 

stones in the quartz veins (south of Dungul Oasis) deep inside this desert.

Of this whole Egypt, the Nile Valley is a mere incident, 

covering 3.5 percent of the country's total area and 

measuring 35,000 square kilometers. It is really a thin 

wedge driven into the heart of the desolate Sahara.

The Nile divides Egypt into two distinct geomorphic 

provinces, the Eastern Desert and the Western Desert.

The Eastern Desert, with its igneous and metamorphic 

complex of rocks (fig. 2), is made famous by its rugged 

mountains along the Red Sea Coast and by the spectacular 

external drainage system whose wadis empty either into the 

Nile or into the Red Sea.

A bird's eye view of the Eastern Desert of Egypt best 

takes in all that is worth seeing in this desert and in the 

Sinai. From the highest pinnacles of wooded Elba (1,437 

m) on the extreme southeastern or Sudanese corner of 

Egypt, the eye travels over the desert north of the bold 

peaks of Gebel Farayid (1,363 m) on the Tropic of Cancer. 

On their northern horizons lies the rose-red whaleback of 

Gebel Hamata (1,978 m) and beyond it the small jagged 

peak of Abu Tiyur (1,099 m) near Quseir. Little Abu Tiyur 

looks humbly north towards the vast Shayeb (2,187 m), the 

highest hill in this desert, where the view ranges over 320 

kilometers from the loop in the Nile at Qena to chapelcrowned Gebel Katherina (2,641 m) in Sinai. In turn, 

Katherina overlooks flat-topped Gebel Egma (1,920 m), 

and Egma looks north to Gebel Halal (890 m) which looms 

over the green hills of Hebron.

The Western Desert, unlike the Eastern Desert, is a 

dead flat country. Save that it has a few green oases, it is 

one of the most desolate parts of the Earth. This desert of 

mostly low plateaus (300 to 400 meters) attains its greatest 

altitude in the extreme southwestern corner of the country 

at Gebel Uweinate (1,895 m) and on the Gilf Kebir plateau 

(1,100 m) to its northeast. Passing the Gilf, the country 

flattens down, until it abuts against a vertical cliff of 

limestone, clays, and sandstone. Here, the two major oases 

of southern Egypt are located; Dakhla to the west and

52 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Kharga to the east. Between them the biggest phosphate 

reserves of Egypt are found at Abu Tartur.

North of the bounding scarp, which rises 500 meters, 

the nearly endless country extends as far as one can see. 

Farafra Oasis lies more than 200 meters north of Dakhla 

while the nearly oval-shaped depression of Bahariya Oasis 

is another 150 kilometers northwest. Again, the bounding 

scarps of these two oases form the northern plateau of the 

Western Desert that stretches about 300 kilometers to the 

Mediterranean Sea. The Qattara, the largest depression of 

all that desert, is located in this plateau. Its area is 18,000

Figure 1 Relief map of Egypt.

square kilometers and its lowest point is 134 meters below 

sea level and, surprisingly, it apparently came to the attention of the civilized world only in 1926. Southwest of this 

depression, several smaller ones are found, with Siwa 

Oasis the largest of them.

Faiyum, with an area of 1,700 square kilometers, is a 

usurped oasis of the desert. Although it mostly lies several 

tens of meters below sea level, it is generally considered a 

part of the Nile Valley because it depends mostly on Nile 

waters to irrigate its fields. Its canal, Bahr Youssef, connects the Faiyum depression with the Nile on the river's left 

bank.

0 50 100 150 200 KILOMETERS 

!,,.,! 1 I I

Egyptian Resources 53
STATUS OF THE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF EGYPT

Established in 1896, the Geological Survey of Egypt 

has had an active role, particularly in the deserts of Egypt.

Almost 65 percent of the area of the country has been 

mapped at 1:50,000 scale while the rest has been regionally 

surveyed with smaller scales.

The Geological Survey of Egypt now has several 

operating divisions, including geological mapping by aerial 

photography and other conventional methods; exploration 

for minerals by geochemical and geophysical methods; 

drilling and mining investigations of ore deposits;

Figure 2 Geologic map of Egypt.

chemical, mineralogical and ore dressing laboratories; and 

a special mining design office that sets up complete working projects for the exploitation of mines. Quarters for the 

newly established documentation centre are now being 

built in order to expand the services of the library. We also 

have a maintenance garage for more than 600 vehicles and 

workshops for repairing cars, drilling machines, compressors, and other equipment.

The Geological Museum also belongs to G.S.E. This is 

not only an exhibit place but includes the macro-, micro-, 

and vertebrate palaeontological laboratories. The earth 

scientists working for the Geological Survey of Egypt total 

400, of whom 250 are active in the desert.

oooooooo

.OOoOOOOO 

\OOo<OOOOO

'ooooooo o

/ooooooooooooooooo 

ooooooo QO oooooo oooooo^ 

/r'ooooooooo

3-J O 0 O\AO O O O O\O O

oooooooo 

o o o o o 

o o o o

O o 

0 O

Geological Survey of Egypt, 1979

0 50 100 150 200 KILOMETERS

linil I I I

54 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Tom

EXPLANATION

Sabkha 

Sand Dunes 

Nile Alluvium

Undifferent iated Quaternary

Includes Older Nile Deposits, playa deposits,

raised beaches and corals of Red Sea Coast.

Oligo - Miocene

Includes gravel spreads west of Nile between 

Minia - Faiyum and Bahariya Oasis.

-Tm-To

TV

Te

Tp

Ku

Kn

Tr

Pz

Pr

Includes gravels and elastics above the Eocene 

rocks, the evaporites and elastics along

the Red Sea and Mediterranean Coasts, and

Pliocene limestone above the proper Miocene

beds.

Extrusive rocks

Mostly of Tertiary age, some of the Occurrences

in Gulf of Suez are of Mesozoic age whereas

some in Nubian Desert are of Quaternary age.

Eocene

Includes thick marine limestone with chert and

clay beds covering many parts in south Egypt

and extending northward up to latitude 30°N

approximately.

Paleocene

Represented by reefal carbonate with clays in

the south, more marine carbonate in the north.

Upper Cretaceous

Includes the Duwi Phosphate, the Dakhla shale

in south, marine carbonates in the north.

Nubia Sandstone

A clastic unit defined by a suite of Lithobiostratigraphic units, exposed mainly in south Egypt.

Undifferentiated Cretaceous

Includes elastics with rare carbonates below the

Upper Cretaceous in south Egypt and Bahariya

Oasis, carbonate beds at El Galalas, Sinai and

Wadi Oepa

Jurassic

Includes marine beds in north Egypt and elastics

in the south west.

Triassic

A carbonate/clastic section exposed at Arif El Naga,

Undifferentiated Paleozoic

Includes mainly clastic section exposed in Sinai,

Gulf of Suez and Uweinat area.

Undifferentiated Precambrian

CHIEF MINERAL RESOURCES OF EGYPT 

[October 1979]

The chief mineral resources currently in production in

Egypt include:

 Iron ore deposits of Bahariya Oasis amount to 

about 300 million tons. The ore is mainly goethite 

and hematite; its average thickness is 9 meters 

while its iron content averages 52 percent. At present, production is 1.2 million tons annually.

 Kaolin deposits, in the Kalabsha area, in the 

southern part of the Western Desert, are estimated 

to have reserves amounting to 16.5 million tons. 

Al2Os content is 32 percent, and the thickness of 

the bed is about 5.0 meters. Annual production is 

20,000 tons.

 Phosphate deposits along the Red Sea Coast between Safaga and Quseir are estimated to be 

reserves of about 50 million tons. The thickness of 

the minable beds is about one meter, with a 

tricalcium phosphate content of 65 percent. Annual production is about 130,000 tons.

 Phosphate deposits in the Nile Valley, between Idfu and Esna, have reserves estimated at over 100 

million tons. The tricalcium phosphate (TCP) content is 64 percent, and the thickness of the minable 

beds averages one meter. Annual production is 

about 150,000 tons.

Development of other phosphate rock deposits is 

underway, including those in the Hamrawein area on the 

Red Sea Coast, where the reserves are estimated at almost 

50 million tons, and at Abu Tartur, where one of Egypt's 

biggest phosphate fields has been recently discovered. The 

G.S.E. is doing extensive geological exploration work 

there since it is charged with evaluating the reserves, 

estimated at more than one thousand million tons, and the 

quality of the ore at about 65 percent TCP.

The coal and carbonaceous shales in Sinai are other 

major deposits whose development and exploitation will 

soon be dealt with by the government. Our first coal mine 

was ready just before the 1967 war, and we hope greatly to 

extend it. The estimated reserves amount to 40 million tons 

in the Safa Mine alone. The tantalum-niobium deposits 

found in the granite of the Eastern Desert have been the 

subject of extensive studies during the last decade. In the 

Abu Dabbab area 48 million tons are estimated, with the 

percentage of tantalum at 2,740 ppm (parts per million) 

and the niobium at 1,140 ppm. In the Nuweibi District 82 

million tons were estimated, with 9,100 ppm niobium 

content.

The nepheline syenite of Gebel Abu Khruq in the 

southern part of the Eastern Desert is a potential raw 

material source for alumina and cement. The alumina content averages 20 percent, and the estimated reserves are 

about 28 million tons.

The ilmenite minerals occurring at Abu Ghalga are 

estimated at about 40 million tons, with 36 percent TiO2. 

Gypsum is present extensively along the Red Sea coast 

while potassium is known to be present in the subsurface 

of the Gulf of Suez. These and other mineral deposits show 

promise of economic value, and merit further prospection 

and investigation.

Other than the above mentioned mineral deposits, we 

also have some minable deposits of talc, asbestos, vermiculite, barite, chromite, and manganese.

Egyptian Resources 55
Limestone, clays, dolomite, and gypsum are quarried 

extensively for use in the cement industry and also for 

building material.

Small mineral deposits are also valuable domestically 

and vital to the developing economy of the country. These 

lesser deposits include the cassiterite at Igla and Abu Dabbab; the copper at Umm Samiuki; the gold in several occurrences at Muweilha, Fawakhir, and Barramiya; the lead 

and zinc of Umm Gheig; the chromite of Abu Pahr, and 

many other occurrences. Perhaps their crucial importance 

lies in their location in the Eastern Desert of Egypt where 

the industrial infrastructure for exploitation of minerals is 

already present: roads, harbours, mining centers, desalination plants, and miners. So, even though these deposits are 

of limited occurrence, their presence contiguous to each 

other renders their development a profitable target.

It might be worth mentioning here that in 1978 the 

total production of the quarries, mines, and evaporite 

operations (mainly sodium chloride) amounted to 

30,417,214 Egyptian pounds (fig. 3). At the top of the list 

with a revenue value of almost 15 million Egyptian pounds 

were the phosphates and iron ores from the mines. Next in 

importance were the sands, limestones, and gravels from 

the quarries. They contributed approximately 11.5 million 

Egyptian pounds to the national budget. Evaporites accounted for only 4 million pounds of the mining industry 

in earnings in Egypt.

GEOLOGICAL MAPPING

Another ongoing activity of the G.S.E. is the 

geological mapping of the country. Almost 65 percent of 

the total area of the country has been mapped to 1:50,000 

scale using aerial photographs.

One sheet of another series, NG 36 at a 1:1,000,000 

scale, was published in 1979. This International Map of the 

World (IMW) series map represents one-sixth of the total 

land area of Egypt, and by 1985 the other five sheets are 

scheduled for publication at the same scale.

Under the auspices of the U.S. Agency for International Development a joint project of our Survey and the 

U.S. Geological Survey has already resulted in the publication of two central Egypt quadrangles (the Qena and 

Aswan sheet) in another series. Produced at a 1:500,000 

scale, each base map is a computer-enhanced Landsat image and is printed as a black and white halftone. The 

geologic tints are surprinted by 3-color process.

QUATERNARY RESEARCH PROGRAMS

One important result stemming from our recent mapping activity is that we have found old branches of the 

Nile, which are now completely silted up and covered by 

recent wash and drifted sands.

During its early geologic history, the Nile wandered 

over the country in the south of Egypt. The river detoured 

around many obstacles in its path, such as granites and

other igneous rocks. For example, the wadi east of Aswan 

includes Nile silts, an indication that the river once occupied a channel east of its present path. Again, to the 

northwest of Aswan, west of Kom Ombo, the area is extensively covered by Nile silt. It seems that the river looped 

east of Aswan to avoid granitic obstacles there, heading 

westwards and fanning out, in the area west of Kom Ombo, before continuing its northerly path once again.

The importance of such areas is paramount now that 

the government is searching for areas along and near the 

Nile that are suitable for reclamation. The water in Lake 

Nasser rises 60 meters higher than before the Aswan High 

Dam was built. This also increases the area of land that can 

be reclaimed, and geologists are now busy looking for such 

land and similar "old channel" conditions along the river's 

course.

Thus Quaternary studies have lately gained much importance and more joint research programs are underway 

between Egyptian and American scientists.

The work in southern Egypt (especially in the Western 

Desert), by Fred Wendorf and his colleagues from 

Southern Methodist University of Dallas, Texas, has laid 

down the foundation of a chrono-stratigraphic succession 

for the Quaternary. Professor Vance Haynes, from the 

University of Arizona at Tucson, has been active in the 

study of geomorphic patterns of the features in our 

Western Desert.

The achievements of these two scientists and many 

others have resulted in the delineation of areas with extensive mud pans and other deposits of Quaternary age in the 

south of Egypt. Also a major part of these studies has been 

directed to the analysis and age determination of 

underground water in the south. It has become clear that 

this water is a fossil type, 35,000 years old. Water from 

some wells gave younger ages, such as 4,000 B.C., that indicate there were recent torrents over the present arid 

areas.

All this research has broadened our knowledge of the 

raw materials available for construction purposes. These 

include sand, gravel, and clay that are much needed, 

especially near the populous Nile Valley.

JOINT RESEARCH PROGRAMS WITH FOREIGN 

INSTITUTES AND COUNTRIES

Another type of cooperation between American and 

Egyptian scientists is found in the work of Elwyn Simons, 

of Duke University, on the vertebrate fossils of the Faiyiim 

area, some 80 kilometers southwest of Cairo. The fossils 

collected from the area are of Upper Eocene to Oligocene 

age, and prove that the Faiyum is the largest graveyard for 

vertebrates of this time-span in Africa.

Cooperation with neighbouring countries is two-fold. 

Besides lending many of our geologists, engineers, and

Figure 3 Resources map of Egypt. ^

56 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
technicians to most of the surrounding and many of the 

African countries, the G.S.E. is also active in executing 

geological works in some of these countries. In Libya, for 

instance, and for a period of four years, Egyptian 

geologists mapped four sheets at a scale of 1:250,000, an 

area of approximately 60,000 square kilometers.

With the Sudan Geological Survey there is a good 

cooperative program for surveying and exploring the 

mineral wealth in an area covered by four degrees of 

latitude along the borders, two in each country. Also there

is a joint committee of all the countries overlooking the 

Red Sea, including the Saudis, the Sudanese, and the 

Egyptians, which convenes for discussion of matters of 

common interest.

G. A. Moustafa

The Egyptian Geological Survey and Mining Authority

3, Salah Salem Street Abbassiya

Cairo, Egypt

 Iron

•*• Manganese 

a Jlmenite 

.... Black Sands

MAIN DEPOSITS IN A.R.E. 

o Copper And Zinc as Marble 

• Gold = Clay And Kaolin 

» Coal IP Gypsum 

m Phosphate A Niobium , Tantalum

Geological Survey of Egypt, 1979

100 200 KILOMETERS 

I i I

Nepheline Syenite 

'Asphaltic Road

Egyptian Resources 57
Discussion and Comments from the Floor

C. Guillemin (France): There are two 

kinds of developing countries: those that 

are rich, and those that can become rich.

Before identifying resources and 

before exploring and being able to exploit 

this kind of resource, there are two 

statements that should be made:

1. Geology, until further distribution of raw materials, does not 

possess equality. A preliminary 

effort of world organizations 

should be to establish a Geological Survey for the developing 

countries, who are actually with 

no knowledge of their possibilities. Perhaps we could do 

something like what the 

petroleum men did in finding oil 

for the world.

2. Another effort should be to have 

people who are able to do the 

survey work, from mapping to 

the discovery of the deposit. We 

must have mining geologists who 

are aware of what is needed in 

developing countries. 

All of our systems of technological 

thinking and training are based on our 

ideas of exponential goals and exponential 

waste. Do we have to bring this to the 

whole world, while a new type of civilization, not yet defined, is yet to come?

An example is the small mining 

system: in developing countries they are 

using the same system that was used in 

Europe during the middle of the last century. Continuing rising cost of energy, 

especially important for mining operations, must cause us to think to the future 

of the large mine with its extra expense of 

energy. We must look toward a new kind 

of small mining system. In France we have 

many deposits with 5,000-20,000 tons of 

lead, copper, and so on of high grade. We 

can imagine a system of mining where 

waste is avoided, and more men than 

machines are employed. It is better to 

have miners than unemployed.

S. Bonis (Guatemala): There is a contrast between Egypt and Venezuela (countries of the two speakers). Egypt is a 

desert environment with no water. 

Venezuela has an excess of water with its 

tropical rain forests. There are also

similarities. Both countries are meeting 

the need for research and development. In 

Egypt this especially applies to water 

resources.

I would like to ask Dr. Lavie for a 

brief history of development in 

Venezuela, and to relate it to the steps 

toward nationalization. Would Venezuela 

have been so bold as to take steps toward 

nationalization if they didn't have this 

group of excellent technicians?

H. Lavie (Venezuela): We would not 

have been able to do this unless we had 

been properly prepared, at least to understand what we were getting into. Our 

Geological Survey is 30 years old, people 

were prepared at American universities 

and slowly the groups grew. They kept in 

constant contact with international cooperative projects.

Speaker unidentified: You can have 

what are called "mining centers" to 

allocate minerals promptly. This would be 

of benefit to the developing country 

because this will teach the people at a very 

rapid rate. You will not have to wait 10 

years for a return. However, if you have a 

huge deposit you cannot have small scale 

mining.

D. Rao (India): India has a peculiar 

problem with 630 million people. A 

population explosion will cause India to 

have 880 million people by the next century. Despite this overpopulation, India 

uses less metals than other countries.

The world has to depend on geoscientists. The basic metals must be available. If there is no technology, metals 

cannot be exploited. Technological considerations rather than economics will 

have to be taken into account in the 

future. There is a need to mine the mineral 

resources as they occur in nature, but we 

should not mine them in such a way as to 

leave nothing for the future.

Oil imports last year in India 

outstripped the value of all the minerals 

(iron, etc.). Therefore, when we go to the 

21st Century we must know how our engineers and scientists will answer the energy 

crisis what are the priorities, etc. We will 

have iron ore, manganese, chromite. We 

had no phosphate deposits in 1960 but today have located deposits in the Precambrian.

P.W. Guild (USGS): Until now the 

supplies of mineral raw materials available 

to the world would not have been significantly less if the profession of geology 

did not exist. By and large, geologists have 

studied ore deposits found by somebody 

else. This will not be the case in the future; 

without good science we are not going to 

find the hidden ores that will be needed 

when the bodies being mined now are exhausted. In a sense we have had a free ride 

for 150-200 years, but the time is coming 

when we must pay our dues.

The unequal distribution of mineral 

resources is well known. Some underdeveloped countries are mineral rich; 

others, apparently mineral poor. Still 

other countries have already essentially 

exhausted their deposits discoverable by 

conventional methods. However, I submit 

that in terms of human history all the 

easily found deposits will be exhausted 

and that in the 21st Century we are all 

going to be more or less on equal footing. 

Technological ability to utilize those 

resources we will have, and human institutions that will permit us to divide them in 

some kind of an equitable manner, will be 

absolutely necessary. Technical training 

such as that offered by the Association of 

Geoscientists for International Development (AGIO) in methods for exploring 

areas of rain forest, among others, will 

help.

Y. Shimazaki (Japan): Problems: 

Guatemala has an extreme shortage of 

competent personnel and needs an improved infrastructure for scientific work. 

Korea has a shortage of mineral resources 

to support industrial growth.

The following conclusions were 

reached in Bonis' talk:

1. Developing countries need 

capable local personnel.

2. They need systematic mapping, 

data collection, and compilation.

3. More attention should be paid to 

water resources.

4. Research should be tailored to the 

needs of the country. 

These are applicable to all countries in

58 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
varying degrees whether the country is 

developing or developed.

I fully agree with both Bonis and 

Hyun that the basic strategy for attacking 

the problems cited by both of them should 

be to train competent geoscientists. Also 

research concerning exploration methods 

under an unfavourable environment, such 

as extremely arid conditions, tropical rain 

forests, deeply buried blind deposits is a 

matter of urgency.

The most efficient means of tackling 

these problems is through cooperation of 

interested parties of various countries and 

international organizations. In Asia, aside 

from international cooperation under bilateral arrangements, multilateral 

cooperation is conducted very actively. 

Particularly, the activities of the bodies 

affiliated with the United Nations 

Economic and Social Commission for 

Asia and Pacific (ESCAP), namely, the 

Committee for Coordination of Joint 

Prospecting for Mineral Resources in 

Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP), the Committee for Coordination of Joint Prospecting for Mineral Resources in the 

South Pacific (CCOP/SOPAC), the Regional 

Mineral Resources Developing Centre 

(RMRDC), and the Southeast Asia Tin 

Research and Development Centre 

(SEATRAD), are noteworthy.

All of the above are dependent on 

funds. International monetary organizations such as the United Nations Revolving Fund for Natural Resources Exploration are becoming more actively involved 

in financing mineral exploration projects.

T. Thimmaiah (India): It is difficult 

to get funds from the government to do 

survey work and at the same time to 

develop mineral resources.

We are trying to cooperate with other 

countries in training geoscientists.

I am surprised that in South America 

and other places they cannot earmark certain amounts for development of natural 

resources. If you don't, it is difficult to 

build a nation. India has been independent for 10 years and has been developing 

during that time. We get funds from

government and recognize the need to 

plan to develop natural resources.

Besides the Geological Survey of India there are corporations in India that 

have great responsibility in locating the 

mineral deposits in the country. There is 

cooperation between the central (Federal) 

and state governments. State government 

looks to the Federal Government for 

assistance (technical as well as other). 

Minerals cannot be exported directly from 

states to other countries; they must go 

through the central (Federal) government.

There is always a conflict between 

developing and underdeveloped countries. 

The underdeveloped countries often feel 

that they are exploited. Developed countries have to look out for the mineral 

resources of underdeveloped ones. 

Cooperation means coming to the aid of 

the underdeveloped. As an example, 

Africa is capable of producing many 

metals. We say we want to help, but do 

not come forward. India is in a position to 

help others now.

Discussion 59
^\IJT v *x i v, v

:"^/%^ -

V,

*&.

«* t

>>•

RADAM map. Detail of an experimental map printed during Projeto RADAMBRASIL. The sidelooking airborne radar images were 

computer-enhanced by USGS staff, who also gave cartographic and special technical training to the Federal and commercial map 

makers who have developed the screenless process for regular use in Brazil.

60 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Opportunities and Perspectives in 

Surveying, Mapping, and Cartography

Surveying: Status and Further Development

Eliz Lundin, Chief Engineer, and Carl-Olof Ternryd, Dr. Director General

National Road Administration, Sweden

INTRODUCTION

Surveying or applied geodesy is the part of geodesy required for measuring and mapping limited areas of the surface of the Earth, and for the calculations required for 

such operations. There exists an interaction for geodetic 

measurements between accuracy, geometry and method of 

surveying, where

Accuracy = the standard error for the location

of a point in space;

Geometry = the relative position between the 

point to be located and the 

known geodetic points (reference 

points) which are used for location; and

Method of = the choice of surveying equipment 

surveying as well as its total application

(method).

The relation between accuracy, geometry and method

of surveying is called the triangular relation of surveying.

The following discussion deals with methods of

surveying and with instrumentation and registration of

field data.

The development of surveying has been rapid and advanced during the last 10 to 15 years. The introduction of 

electronic instruments for the measurement of angles and 

distances has rationalized and facilitated field work, and 

the development of different tools for calculation and plotting has also had an important impact on the whole profession. The development of the technique and methods 

of surveying has now come to such a level that we can 

regard surveying and photogrammetry as two methods 

complementing each other. In many cases there are requests for filling the photogrammetric gaps and in many 

cases, i.e., for engineering measurements, field surveying

is more practical and rational than the photogrammetric 

technique.

During the development of the tools and technique for 

field surveying, the recording of the measured data has 

been the weakest link in the chain. Using modulated light 

beams for measuring distances, and microcircuits for 

measuring angles, has meant a tremendous step forward, 

but, in the data-recording operation, human error in the 

form of wrong reading, wrong notation and wrong punching has become a limiting factor. We have made a lot of investigations for controlling this factor and all the investigations have clearly shown that, with conventional recording 

technique, it is very difficult to improve the quality by 

diminishing the influence of the human factor. The 

development during recent years of tools and technique for 

recording the surveying data is therefore very interesting 

and important.

Another weak point of the field surveying technique is 

the procedure of checking and correcting the measured 

data when surveying is going on out in the field. It is 

always an expensive procedure to go back a second time 

for checking and amending as the costs of manpower and 

travel are generally high. It is therefore important to check 

the quality and the completeness of the data before the 

surveying team leaves the area.

Recent developments in surveying have also had an 

impact on the education and training of personnel for 

fieldwork, as the available equipment is much more complex than the theodolite and the tape, and as it also gives 

opportunities for more advanced methods of measuring 

and calculation than before. It is important for an optimal 

result that the operators have a good knowledge of the advantages and disadvantages of the different available 

techniques and instruments.

Surveying: Status and Development 61
The development of improved surveying techniques 

has also had an important impact on industry, where 

surveying is essential to the siting and layout of structures. 

The limits on tolerances in surveying have become stronger 

as industrial technology has developed. This fact concerns 

not only traditional civil engineering operations but also, 

for example, highly technical, closely designed structures 

such as nuclear power plants. The siting and layout of the 

reactors, turbines and other parts of a nuclear plant impose requirements that are very advanced and important. 

When discussing the future of surveying it is therefore important also to consider siting and layout techniques.

RECORDING OF MEASURED DATA

The knowledge or supposition that the input data are 

not always altogether reliable has, as a rule, meant that 

computation programs have been provided with a number 

of numerical and graphical tolerances and reasonability 

checks, in the hope of discovering and reducing the 

number of errors, which can have a damaging and expensive influence on the results. We must assume that even if 

technical development goes very fast, not all surveying instruments will be provided with completely automatic 

recording in the immediate future. There are many reasons 

behind this statement, generally operational, personnel 

and economic ones. The entire procedure of recording and 

documentation must therefore be taken into account.

I stated earlier that recording of the measured data has 

been the weakest link in the surveying procedure. Let us 

therefore take a little look at what is going on now in the 

effort to strengthen this link. The following recording 

methods are listed in order of increased reliability:

1. Keeping records

2. Sound-recording of field data

3. Radio transmission of data

4. Data storage on cassette tape

5. Data storage in a datastack

6. Semi-automatic systems

7. Total stations

The choice of the actual method of documentation 

must be adapted to the special tasks, personnel, available 

data routines, and other factors applicable to each particular case. The method of collecting data has a direct influence on the computer programs, forms, data communication, punching routines, and archive storage.

Keeping Records

The Observer as a Record Keeper (fig. 1): This method 

involves a reduction in capacity and in concentration. If 

the measurements are noted on white paper in sunlight, 

there is also a risk of dazzling. As a result, the possibility 

of carrying out correct alignments and readings is reduced 

considerably.

Figure 1 The observer as record keeper. Even if the control 

screw is located on the left-hand side of the instrument, the 

observer adjusts it with the right hand since his left hand is 

holding the record. Obviously the concentration needed to carry 

out a high-precision measurement suffers from this uncomfortable work posture and the data collected may have a poorer 

quality than would be the case if another recording method were 

used.

The Observer in Direct Sound Contact with the 

Record Keeper: The observer makes readings which he 

passes on orally to the record keeper, who is within hearing 

distance of the station. At best, the numerical values are 

repeated while the observer checks the scales simultaneously and can verify the correctness of the values. Unfortunately, this method of recording can seldom be maintained for long, since it is extremely time-consuming and 

tiring. The result is either that it is dropped or else that 

those concerned no longer react to what is said, whether it 

be correct or incorrect. The record keeper is much influenced by what is going on around him. If the environment is distracting, with traffic noise or radio communication, and if other audible and visible changes take place 

within the vicinity, there is a considerable risk that incorrect entries will be made.

During a close study of field records and sound tapes, 

the causes of erroneous entries were roughly sorted. The 

causes of the errors are grouped below in order of frequency:

1. Noise interference from traffic

2. Disturbing conversations exchanged at the station

3. Visible disturbances or tiredness

4. Interruption by radio communication

62 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The Record Keeper Keys in the Data in a Desk Top 

Computer (figs. 2A and 2B): With this method the input 

data are controlled both numerically and graphically in the 

field. Survey values and results can be stored either on the 

printed list or on cassette tape.

The Observer in Radio Contact with the Record 

Keeper: In some cases, field circumstances make it impossible for the record keeper to be located within direct 

hearing distance of the observer. It may also be practical to 

carry out the recording in an undisturbed environment or 

indoors in poor weather and to receive the data from the 

observer via a two-way radio. The observer can pass on the 

survey data in a calm conversational tone without shouting 

and becoming stressed even if there is considerable traffic 

noise in the vicinity of the station. This technique can be 

supplemented by having the record keeper carry out certain calculations and can, consequently, be used both for 

surveying and for laying out construction work. In other 

words, a base station is established from which the values 

can be transmitted to and from the field personnel.

Sound-Recording Field Data

Recording on Sound Tape: Free-standing Tape 

Recorder: Instead of writing records and thus losing the 

original (i.e., the voice of the observer), recordings can 

suitably be made on a free-standing cassette tape recorder.

Figure 2A Instead of writing the survey data in a record, they 

are keyed in directly and are processed in a desk top calculator. 

The input data and the numerical results are printed out on a list 

and the points that have been calculated are reproduced 

graphically on the plotter table.

Figure IE The position of the plotted point (+) can immediately be compared graphically with the theoretical position (o).

X- 84.0

X= 83.O

Jf

Surveying: Status and Development 63
Connection box 

with switch and 

signal lamp

2 - way radio

Cassette tape recorder

Figure 3 A specially manufactured connection box makes it possible to interrupt the radio communication and have the sound 

transmitted directly for recording on a cassette tape. In both cases the same microphone is used. The operator can monitor the sound 

during the tape recording to assure that contact has been established with the cassette tape recorder.

64 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The most important advantages offered by recording on 

sound tape are that a repeatable original becomes available, and that the costs required for a record keeper are 

saved. Storage space is also reduced. In most cases, the 

cassette tapes are reused after the data calculations have 

been approved and finally presented.

According to advertising information, values can be 

read in eight times faster on sound tape than they can be 

documented in writing following dictation. The smaller 

types of tape recorder, which can easily be protected 

against cold and rain, are the most suitable for use in the 

field. The microphone must be screened in windy weather 

if the recording is not to be marred by disturbances.

Recording on Sound Tape: Cassette Tape Recorder 

Connected to Headset (fig. 3): The most rational method 

of using an electronic-distance-measuring (EDM) instrument is when a large number of objects is to be measured 

or located from the same station. The long measurement 

ranges of these instruments often mean that measurements 

are carried out at distances which oblige the observer and 

the prisma carrier to work out of hearing range of each 

other. The conversations involved must, in this case, be 

transmitted via a two-way radio.

In many cases, it is also necessary to carry out calculations with the aid of a calculator during ongoing surveying 

work. This gives rise to a difficult situation since a surveying instrument, a radio, a calculator and a record must be 

handled at the same time. One way of solving the problem 

is to equip the observer with a two-way radio which can be 

located anywhere or can be carried in a harness on the 

observer's back. The radio is connected to a headset with 

speech control, which in turn, is provided with an extra 

connection for a tape recorder. This will mean that the 

tape recorder can also be located in a suitable position.

The observer can now work freely with both hands 

while communicating via the microphone with the prisma 

carrier in the field and can switch over to recording survey 

data on cassette tapes when entering values in the record. 

This arrangement means that the radio can be located so 

that the best transmission and reception conditions are obtained, using special aerial equipment if necessary. The 

tape recorder can be protected by means of a suitable cover 

on rainy and cold days. Since the tape recorder has small 

dimensions, though using a standard cassette, it can often 

be placed in a pocket in the observer's outer clothing. A red 

signal lamp indicates that the contact is closed to the tape 

recorder and the monitoring facility provides further confirmation that the system is functioning satisfactorily. If 

the monitoring function is broken off, this means that the 

end of the tape has been reached.

Recording on Sound Tape via the Telecommunication 

Network (fig. 4): This procedure can also be used in conjunction with written records, but in this case the survey 

values must be read in orally.

Compartment for 

recording cassette

Tone transmitter

Figure 4 The reports can be made directly from the survey station in the field via relay stations to an office where the survey 

data are recorded on the speech recording tape. The data are 

stored there for later punching and processing. If recordings have 

been made on cassette tapes in the field, the contents can be 

transmitted to a subscriber with a speech recording unit by using 

the ordinary loudspeaker of the tape recorder to transmit the 

sound by telephone to the recording unit.

When the tapes that have been recorded in this manner 

are punched out, a playback machine of the SONY type 

should be used. Since this machine uses cassette tapes, the 

speech recording must either be made directly on a tape of 

this type or must be transferred to a cassette tape by connecting a conventional tape recorder to the speech recording device.

The increased spread and use of mobile telephones 

and of radio stations for mobile, stationary and portable 

use means that constantly improving facilities are available 

for rapidly reaching localities with punching and computer 

resources. The reports can be made directly from the 

survey station in the field via relay stations to an 

office where the survey data are recorded on speechrecording tape and are stored there for later punching and 

processing.

If recordings have been made on cassette tapes in the 

field, the contents can be transmitted to a subscriber with a

Surveying: Status and Development 65
speech recording unit by using the ordinary loudspeaker of 

the tape recorder to transmit the sound by telephone to the 

recording unit. It should be noted in conjunction with this 

that the best sound reproduction will be obtained if the 

telephone receiver is upright and the tape recorder is 

located approximately 100 mm from the receiver.

Radio Transmission of Data

By radio transmission of data is meant that encoded, 

electronic signals sent out from a measuring instrument or 

a calculator are broadcast for interpretation and processing at the receiving end. The technology behind this type of 

data transmission has been thoroughly researched in connection with major projects such as space research. Until 

now, the efforts made to apply the method for geodetic 

purposes have been mainly concerned with recording

Measuring

. DM play

-6-I-6-;*J

- . »

Interface

\

J

>

i

Datastack

* — *-* — **—

Modem

T(

• I

iI

Radio

ASC ll-code

Modem

Measuring 

unit

xy-plotter 

Desk-top computer

External display

Read out and 

Check unit

Figure 5 Principle sketch showing the dataflow between the measuring unit, datastack, and the desk top computer. In practice, an 

electronic measuring instrument radiates coded survey data to a computer located in an office building or in a car. Calculations, data 

storage, and mapping can then take place at the rate at which the information flows in via the receiver. Setting out data can be sent 

back to the datastack and be presented on the external display on the read-out unit.

66 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
signals from surveying satellites for determining the positions of points on the surface of the Earth.

In the case of the Geodimeter 700/710, this system 

means that the BCD encoded measurement signals from 

the instrument are broadcast ASCII-encoded in serial 

form, and that the signals are converted to a code which 

the computer in question can read on the receiving end 

(fig. 5).

In practice, the main instrument standing on a station 

in the field can broadcast survey data to a computer 

located in an office building or some other sheltered place 

with access to a main connection. Calculations, data 

storage and entries can then take place at the rate at which 

the information flows in via the receiver. Just as encoded 

signals can be broadcast from the surveying instrument to 

the computer station, it is also possible to transmit signals 

from the computer back to the instrument in the field.

be better when data are keyed in than is the case when data 

are written since the unreliable punching operation and the 

interpretation of the handwriting concerned will be avoided in future. Another point is that a cold, shivering hand 

finds it easier to depress a key than to form a legible digit.

The basic philosophy behind the use of cassettes as 

data carriers should be that data can be taken from central 

computers for recording on cassette tapes which can be 

used in desk and field computers. The opposite must also 

be fully possible, i.e., it must be possible to transfer data 

recorded on cassette tapes in the field to a larger ADP 

system for processing. A procedure of this type means that 

there is little chance of distorting the data en route from 

the design stage to the practical use of the values in the 

construction stage (fig. 6). The surveying values can also 

be keyed in and stored directly in a desk top computer 

equipped with a cassette tape station.

Data Storage on Cassette Tape

Cassette tapes have, to an increased extent, taken over 

the part played by punched tapes in modern dataprocessing routines. Cassette tapes are used as program 

and data carriers in most types of desk-top computers and 

mini-computers.

One of the features involved in both writing records 

and keying in data via a key-set is that the original is lost, 

i.e., the observer's voice is not recorded and cannot, consequently, be later used for checking the values noted against 

the source. We may, however, assume that reliability will

Cassette tape of 

standard format 

\

Display with 

12 digits

Key for controlling 

program recording 

tape

Key sets

Connection of tape station 

or teleprinter

Key for transferring 

program to calculator 

storage

Figure 6 Data storage on cassette tape with the aid of a 

calculator of type Compucorp 326 with a Compucorp 393 cassette 

tape station. This equipment, which is battery-powered, can be 

used in the field if it is protected against cold and rain. It is used 

there as a calculator, data bank, and data collector.

Data Storage in a Datastack

A datastack consists of a storage unit (RAM) in which 

data can be stored in sequence. The surveying values are 

entered in numbered registers via a key-set which contains

DATASTACK CONNECTED 

TO HP 9820

Figure 7 The datastack has a wide field of applications for 

transmitting data among various types of desk top computers and 

terminals.

Surveying: Status and Development 67
Figure 8A The datastack is used as an electronic field memory book where the actual distance and vertical angle are automatically 

stored. Other information is keyed in manually.

68 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Tape

recorder Cassette

Telephone lines

Computer

Data terminal

H

Tape 

demodulator

Figure SB AGA Geodat 120 connections.

Surveying: Status and Development 69
digits and code keys. A microprocessor and an internal 

programme memory (PROM) make the datastack 

programmable to the customer's requirements.

The display can be used to read off what is documented in the stack. Direct addressing can be used for 

searching in the registers. There are also facilities for stepping forwards or backwards from a position at a slow or 

rapid pace. When data are keyed in, a journal can be kept 

indicating the registers in which certain main data have 

been inserted so as to facilitate searching through the 

material in conjunction with subsequent checks and corrections. The main data can be broken down by survey station, section number, time and other categories. The key 

set and special instrument functions can be designed and 

programmed so that the datastack can be adapted for any 

specific purpose.

The content of the datastack can be transferred when 

convenient to a cassette tape or into the memory of a desk 

top computer. The data can also be sent by ordinary 

telephone lines via modem to a central computer.

The development trend seems to be that datastacks 

will be used as free-standing electronic field books (fig. 7) 

or as built-in components, or can be temporarily adapted 

to electronic surveying units.

The datastack will probably have replaced the written 

record to a considerable extent during the coming years, 

and the interest in this technique among instrument 

manufacturers is obvious.

Semi-Automatic Systems

Most systems for collecting and storing surveying data 

have some elements of manual processing involved. Semiautomatic systems mean, in the geodetic sector, that the 

surveying instrument is equipped with electronics for 

automatic scanning of horizontal and vertical angles and 

for recording of the slope distance. There can also be a 

combination of these three values where two or one of the 

sets of surveying data must be noted or keyed in manually 

on some data collector. The actual information is transmitted to some check unit where the values are also 

presented on a display before they are stored on a tape or 

in a datastack.

The manufacturers of surveying instruments have, in 

recent years, developed semi-automatic equipment. Some 

of the products are presented in the following text and in 

the figures.

Geodimeter 120 and Geodat 120: When the Geodat 

120 is connected to the Geodimeter 120 we can make 

automatic recordings of vertical angle and slope distance 

while the horizontal angle has to be keyed in via the 

keyboard of the Geodat 120 (fig. &4). The Geodat 120 can 

also be connected to the Geodimeter 700/710; then all 

three measured values are automatically stored (fig. 8E).

Wild Tachymat TC1: In the Wild electronic reduction tachymeter TC1 the registration of the measured 

values is automatically made on a cassette tape station attached to the top of the surveying unit. Additional data are 

keyed in via the built-in keyboard (fig. 9). A microprocessor controls the automatic angle and distance 

measurements and computes horizontal distance, height 

difference and coordinates.

Magnetic tape cassette for 

automatic recording of 

measured values and 

manually entered data 

from the key-set

Displays for presenting 5 

pairs of values according 

to switch position

Keyboard for giving commands and for entering 

data and code numbers

Figure 9 Semi-automatic system, Wild TC1.

Kern Electronic Tachymeter, El and E2: The Kern 

electronic tachymeter is a combination of an electronic 

theodolite and a distance meter (Kern DM501) (fig. 10^4). 

By adding a recording device (Kern R32 or R48) to the electronic tachymeter it is possible to register and store the 

automatically measured data: horizontal direction, vertical 

angle, and slope distance. These data, together with 

general keyed-in information, can be directly fed into the 

built-in computer for evaluation.

A microprocessor in the theodolite controls the 

measuring process and sends the measured values to the 

recording unit. It also automatically computes horizontal

70 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
DM 501 Electronic Theodolite

Figure WA Semi-automatic system, Kern El/2.

Recording Unit Computer

Figure IOB The Kern DM501 and a datastack attached to the Kern electronic theodolite. All measurement data are automatically 

stored in the datastack, while other information is keyed in manually. In the left figure the electronic theodolite is adapted only for 

automatic registration of angle measurement.

Surveying: Status and Development 71
D Elta2

"MEM" data memory

Elta 4/SIV

1

4

en

UT

Automatic 

recording

Manual recording 

with electronic 

Field Book REC 100

I i

e.g. coordinates for 

setting out

Examples

Digital Printer

Storage on disk, tape, cassette, 

____discette, paper tape___

Desk calculator 

Minicomputer

EDP Terminal

Telecommunication

Figure 11 Semi-automatic system, Zeiss Elta-2 and the manual registration system Elta-4.

£ E - £l°

15 c o ra IE""

C C (/) E Q- <u CD •- CD O

72 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
GEODIMETER 700/710

CHECK AND READ 

OUT UNIT

INTERFACE

HP 9820 

PRINTED LIST

XY-PLOTTER

Figure 12 A, Geodimeter 710 connected via a cable to a desk 

top computer and an XY-plotter. The computer operator is 

responsible for controlling the function of the geodimeter and 

computer. He also communicates with the boat by radio. The 

alignments and each of the measured positions of the boat are 

mapped on the plotter. Printed out on the list are the input and 

the output data in the form of point number, X, Y, and Z coordinates and the perpendicular deviation from the theoretical 

alignments. B, A specially made boat equipped with instrumentation for measuring seismic reflexions within predetermined 

alignments. Computer operator communicates with boat by 

radio.

distance and height difference. Stored data can be recalled 

and presented on the display.

The recording unit acts as a terminal which transfers 

the stored data to the computer either directly or via a 

telephone line (fig. 105).

Electronic Tachymeter Zeiss Elta-2 and Elta-4 (fig. 

11): In the self-reducing tachymeter Zeiss Elta-2 all the 

components are built-in and form one unit free from connecting cables. The registration of the measured values is 

made in a datastack plugged into the electronic theodolite. 

Microprocessors steer the measuring process and computer 

data according to a selected program. Previously recorded 

data can be recalled and displayed. Moreover, the datastack (MEM) can be loaded at home as an electronic coordinate register. In conjunction with the layout program in

the PROG program slide-in unit, this allows laying out by 

coordinates.

The interface between the Elta-2-MEM and the data 

processing center is the DAC-100 data converter, programmable data output of which allows adaption to existing systems.

Total Stations

A total station can be arranged in two ways. The 

signals can be transmitted either via a cable (fig. 12/4) or 

by coded radio signals (figs. \2B and 13). The data from 

the surveying unit are automatically registered and transmitted via a cable or by radio transmission to a computer 

provided with a plotting device. The computer transforms 

the data and the result can be stored in different ways and

Surveying: Status and Development 73
also graphically accounted for on the plotter. The plotting 

serves as a good check of the completeness of the 

surveying.

In practical application, the surveying instrument 

standing on a station in the field can broadcast surveying 

data to a computer located in an office building or in some 

other sheltered place. The calculation, data storage and 

plotting can then take place at the rate at which the data 

comes in via the receiver.

Before the surveyor leaves the station the completeness 

and the quality of the data can be effectively controlled. 

This possibility of getting a graphic display of the result of 

the surveying while being in the field, or close to it, is 

especially useful in surveying for civil engineering purposes 

over limited areas, as for road interchanges, measuring 

cross-profiles, or for industrial plants. It is also important 

when field surveying is used for filling photogrammetric 

gaps, as in measuring of digital terrain models.

In the near future we will probably have small desktop computers with built-in screens, which can present 

both alpha-numeric values and graphic results. The picture 

on the screen can be saved by print-out on paper.

Modem HP 9825 Monophone

Z Geodimeter 710

Measuring 

instrument

Display

-6-1-6- *——>

—— »

Interface

]

i 

t

L

Datastack

4 —————————————— 

————————————— »

Modem

l

i

r

i

Radio

External display

ead out and check unit

Datastack i^HM^^^M^B^^^MMM^M

Interface

Figure 13 Geodimeter 710 connected to a desk top computer via coded radio communication. The two mobile radio stations use the 

frequency 439,850 MHz. The datastack is programmed to steer the operations in both directions.

74 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
SUMMARY OF AUTOMATION TRENDS

The most important result of the development of the 

recording of surveying data, which I have briefly described 

above, concerns the good possibilities of limiting the influence of the human factor on surveying technique. The 

possibilities of increasing the quality of the result and the 

completeness of the data are essentially better because of 

this development.

The instrument manufacturers seem to have understood this fact, and the trend of development goes in the 

direction of better recording for instruments without 

automation as well as for automated ones. We must keep 

in mind that it is not always necessary or possible to use the 

most advanced instrument for all types of surveying. It is, 

however, most necessary and important that there be correct recording of the data from measurements using the 

simpler instruments. The possibilities of strengthening the 

weakest link of the surveying chain are thus good. The 

development of automatic calculation goes on very rapidly 

and the trend toward stronger small computers or calculators is encouraging. The combination of fieldwork and 

calculation provides improved possibilities for advanced 

and economic solutions of the surveying problems. With

new technical developments, there are many cases where 

field surveying is an excellent substitute for the 

photogrammetric technique.

The improvement of surveying instruments has an impact on the organization of the work and also influences 

the education and training of the personnel. Education in 

the basics of surveying is still very important maybe more 

than before as the great range of instruments and 

methods that is available today gives the surveyor many 

good possibilities of choosing the optimal method for the 

actual object. Today there are also good facilities available 

to train personnel in using the new technique. As an example the videotop can be mentioned. This tool for training 

means that the student can get the training easily and correctly with instruction adjusted for his background and 

ability.

Presented by:

Carl-Olof Ternryd

Statens Vagverk

Pack

S-102 20

Stockholm 12, Sweden

Surveying: Status and Development 75
Discussion

Willis F. Roberts

Executive Director, Land Registration and Information Service, New Brunswick, Canada

I think Carl has appropriately outlined the advances in 

instrumentation over the past 20 years and has zeroed in on 

the weakest links. As he pointed out, the weak links are the 

system of recording of the data and the human factor involved. Now, the human factor is very difficult to rate but 

he has pointed out the need for better trained personnel. 

We are now moving a bit from technicians towards professional people because these people must not only be technically trained in instrument operations, but they must 

know the theory behind each instrument. When Dr. 

Ternryd said that the weakest link is recording the information, was he talking directly about interactive graphics 

or graphical presentation or synthesis of data on an on-line 

basis? A person has to have the knowledge of which system 

to use. I'd like you to bear those two points in mind when 

we come to the discussion period.

I'd like also for you to look at it in a practical way and 

realize that you must have an information base available to 

start with. Think, how good are your geodetic values in

North America, and what have you in secondary control? 

You know, the worst thing you can have is wrong information and if you start with wrong information it does little 

good to have all the instrumentation in the world. It only 

leads to what we always did in North America and I think 

we're still doing it it's oversurveying. You must have 

good information to use interactive graphics or a synthesis 

of the field actions on an on-line basis.

I'd like you to ask questions. Do we have the basic information and knowledge to move into this field? If not, 

how do we move into it? The field is here, the instrumentation is here, and the modeling or interactive graphics to 

support it are here along with software that is readily 

available.

Willis F. Roberts

President, LRIS International Corporation

P.O. Box 55555

Fredericton, New Brunswick

Canada E3B 6C2

76 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Cartography Today

J. Alberto Villasana L

Director-General, DETENAL, Mexico

INTRODUCTION

Cartography as a discipline is attractive, inspiring, and 

stimulating attractive because it is work that provides opportunities for development and planning, inspiring 

because each case offers different regional characteristics 

which in turn demand different approaches, and stimulating because of the methods and techniques currently 

available for each particular project. If this were not true, 

probably many of us would not be here.

Without disregarding past achievements, we may say 

that the information systems collecting, processing and 

distribution have been highly impacted by technology in 

recent years. Cartography, which has a very special need 

for information, has not escaped this situation.

Since the early days when nomadic tribes hunted for 

food, people have had to know their own location, direction, and distance with respect to other people, resources, 

and phenomena. This fundamental need for information is 

still valid in our time, and it is this need that is the essence 

of cartography. Technology is the result of man's need to 

solve his problems more easily, with better coverage, or in 

more detail.

NEW CARTOGRAPHIC SYSTEMS

Practically all the cartographic work done between the 

2nd Century B.C. and the first part of this 20th Century 

has entailed angle and (or) direct tape measurements. Since 

the 1950s, electronic distance-measurement equipment, 

satellites (both active and passive), and various inertial 

positioning systems have been developed and marketed for 

cartographic information gathering. There are still many 

countries that are considering incorporating such systems 

in their normal procedures, and while this is taking place, 

some of the systems will become obsolete. In the labs there 

is already new equipment for leveling; the global positioning system is almost operational; and experiments with 

very long base lines are offering good prospects. Unfortunately many countries cannot keep pace economically 

with these technological advances.

Most cartographic compilation in our day is done by 

photogrammetric techniques. Today, all major aerial 

survey agencies utilize black-and-white, natural-color, and 

false-color photography, along with modern techniques of 

automatic processing, electronic control of contrast, and

so on. Probably these changes are difficult to realize 

because we have lived with them; but if we were to look 

back just 30 years, when the continental program was 

underway, we would see that in those days, with no trouble, 1:40,000 images were obtained and used to produce 

1:500,000 maps. Today, images at scales of 1:80,000 or 

even smaller are used to compile maps at a scale of 

1:20,000. Obviously the metric quality and the optical 

resolution of modern cameras are improving.

Aerial triangulation is a good example of how man 

devotes his efforts to cut down hard work. In 25 years, we 

have jumped from stereotemplets and graphic adjustment 

to a fully analytical process with bundle reconstruction and 

simultaneous space resections. Blocks of 500 models based 

on 40 points are not unusual, and results in terms of accuracy are so good that many agencies are now considering 

the process to densify the geodetic nets.

IMPACT OF COMPUTERS

Many of the achievements have been made possible by 

the revolutionary development of modern computers 

which have been part of the cartographic arsenal for some 

time. These machines, whether used for memory or processing, are the only capital goods whose price has 

decreased a trend that will probably continue in the near 

future.

For many years map compilation, sometimes accomplished by pen-and-ink drafting and at other times by 

scribing, has been a labor-intensive handwork operation 

which has made it slow and expensive. Some applications 

in which a great amount of data is handled, such as aerial 

triangulation, cadastral surveys, or highway design, made 

feasible the use of electronic recording devices. Once the 

advantages of these devices were recognized, their use 

spread to other fields, and designs were improved using 

new electronic encoders for digitizing. In turn, this opened 

the door for direct interface with computers for direct 

processing of output information and control of some 

functions of the photogrammetric instruments. This was 

the beginning of the era of analytical plotters. With this 

automation of the photogrammetric process, information 

was provided in a suitable form for data banks or 

automatic editing.

Since the 1950s, scribing has been the preferred 

method of preparing separates for multicolor map printing. In the past we saw changes only in the materials used.

Cartography Today 77
Only in recent years have we been able to obtain numerical 

information from plotters and thus to enjoy the benefits of 

interactive graphic systems. The storage, editing, and film 

plotting operations are now done with a high degree of 

automation, while human assistance is reserved for supervision, and correction of the final draft through the use of 

interactive display terminals.

With time, map editing will become more automated. 

This does not mean that we can work without the human 

being; on the contrary, each day we need personnel with 

better training. What will happen is that our map production capacity will expand, enabling us to meet the information requirements of our countries.

NEED FOR CARTOGRAPHIC PROGRAMS

Many countries have acute needs for food, housing, 

and energy sources, just to mention some of the most 

repeated problems. The solution to these urgent problems 

demands other types of cartographic information, in addition to topography. Resources inventories, dynamics of 

the environment, and land use are some of the programs 

that cartographic agencies are sponsoring. The production 

of thematic maps has greatly increased in recent years and 

their use in these programs has been highly beneficial.

We already have considerable experience in the human 

interpretation of aerial photographs; in fact, many maps 

have been produced using this technique. Now we also 

have available remote sensing data from airplanes and 

satellites which, with wide coverage and repeatability, 

lends itself to synoptic studies of regions or even entire 

countries. But there is still not a clear philosophy in regard 

to data processing. In most cases the information, which 

originally is in numerical form, is converted to a pseudocolor photographic image, probably to make use of the 

visual interpretation capability.

Even in cases where interactive processing systems are 

available, most of the effort for automatic interpretation 

has been based on spectral identification. Not much research has taken place using repeatability and almost none 

in form recognition, although form recognition is the basic 

concept used in identification. For example, there is 

nothing in this lecture room that we could not identify if 

shown such a form only in black and white. The implications for speeding up and improving features in mapping 

are obvious, of course.

There is much yet to be done in the field of remote 

sensing, but the results that we are already getting make it 

a useful tool.

With all this technology available one would think that 

the world would be surveyed and resurveyed quite often; 

unfortunately, this is not so. If we look at two popular 

scales for national series, medium scales (1:50,000 to 

1:100,000) or smaller (1:250,000 to 1:500,000), we find that

only 30 and 65 percent of the world, respectively, are 

surveyed. If we take into account accuracy or updating, 

these percentages drop to even lower levels. It makes us 

think, as cartographers, that our jobs are assured for many 

decades, but for others there is a more obvious problem affecting cartographic activities.

CARTOGRAPHY IN UNDERDEVELOPED 

COUNTRIES

The range of underdevelopment in the different countries is quite broad. In many cases, the capital investment 

necessary to establish a cartographic agency and to make it 

operational is either very limited or unavailable.

It may sound strange to us, but there are still countries where national series are done by means of planetable surveys a way in which thousands of people can be 

gainfully employed instead of becoming unemployment 

statistics. Thus automation is not always acceptable in 

these countries: first, because of the labor-force situation; 

and second, because there is no capital for equipment 

purchases.

Frequently too, in these underdeveloped countries, the 

young technicians trained in foreign countries return to 

find unsuitable economic conditions at their sponsoring 

agencies. Sometimes they then go to work in private enterprises, where salaries are likely to be higher, and, in many 

other cases, they emigrate to more developed countries 

offering better opportunities.

Actually these problems and attitudes are not primary. 

They only reflect the main cause, and that is the low priority given by many governments to cartographic programs. 

Many of the mapping projects that get started are undertaken only as prerequisites to specific construction or 

development plans. With this type of policy, important 

projects are often delayed until basic surveys have been 

finished. The desirable alternative is to have the information in advance, not only to avoid delays, but more importantly to be sure that the solutions chosen are the best ones.

It is necessary that political authorities become aware 

that good planning can only be done with good information and, in many cases, cartography is a substantial part 

of that required information.

J. Alberto Villasana L. 

Director General

DETENAL

San Antonio Abad 124, P.B.

Mexico 8, D.F.

Mexico

78 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

Lewis John Harris

Royal Engineers (Retired)

INTRODUCTION

At the beginning of my remarks, I am glad to have the 

opportunity on the centenary of the United States 

Geological Survey of saluting its distinguished past and of 

offering my best wishes for its future.

I had the good fortune to meet Director-General 

Villasana at an international conference on this site in 

1976, and learned that our views on national topographical mapping, as far as our talks went, were in agreement. Therefore, I did not anticipate any differing views 

from him today. And I was not wrong. I shall develop a 

few points of his. My comments are directed towards the 

general question of achieving the right national policy, and 

the task of undertaking national mapping within the context of this seminar which is concerned with surveying, 

mapping, and cartography its opportunities and perspectives in a world of shrinking resources and increasing environmental problems.

The primary consideration is to decide the purpose of 

the endeavor. And since the U.S. Geological Survey has 

been so involved with topographical mapping and cartographic presentation throughout its history, in the interest of time I shall mainly discuss these two aspects 

against the background of Villasana's paper.

MAPS IN A MODERN SOCIETY

The uses of topographic maps are manifold. They are 

used for land navigation; for the development of 

resources; for good administration; for scientific studies 

and operations; for constructional works; for search and 

rescue; for internal security, safeguarding the right of people and property; for national defense; for social, industrial, recreational and private needs; and for planning 

for the future.

Maps are an essential requirement of a modern society. At this time, when information systems are in our 

thoughts, it is advisable that we regard the map, the cartographic product, as a means of communicating information; and it is also worth emphasizing that the map is more 

than the presentation of all the individual features, for it 

enables the reader, to obtain visually a synthesis of the 

features, and to make deductions from that cartographic 

synthesis, which would not be apparent from the study of 

the features individually and successively, or in list form.

The essential of good topographical cartography is a 

sufficient content of interpreted data which is accurately 

located, up-to-date, and easily readable by all. The artist, 

Whistler, one-time cartographic draftsman in the Coast 

Survey, has described the need for the right selection and 

the proper presentation in another context with the following words:

Nature contains the elements, in colour and form, of 

all pictures, as the keyboard contains the notes of all 

music. But the artist is born to pick, and choose, and 

group with science, these elements that the result may 

be beautiful as the musician gathers his notes and 

forms his chords, until he brings from chaos glorious 

harmony. To say to the painter that Nature is to be 

taken as she is, is to say to the player, that he may sit 

on the piano!

So it is in the compilation and presentation of maps.

Modern society by the complexity of its structure, and 

by the multiplicity of its demands, has augmented the content of maps; has given rise to an expanding range of 

thematic maps and overlays which are based on 

topographical maps and which give the additional information required by special users; and has directed attention towards the urgent need for adequate urban maps.

So the future seems to require that the generalized 

maps of medium scales be more informative; and that the 

urban maps of large scale be produced in a more orderly 

and plentiful manner. These requirements will have an influence on the mapping policies of a country, as we enter 

the age of computerised mapping, and on the degree of 

cooperation between map production centers at the different levels of jurisdiction or government. 

Automated Cartography

Modern technology has offered computerised methods 

to facilitate the production of topographical and thematic 

maps, and to record and store the relevant digital data for 

subsequent retrieval, analysis, transmission, and usage. 

We must be masters of these methods, and not the slaves 

of the technology.

I believe it to be important as we move into the digital 

mapping era to take a holistic view of mapmaking; to 

maintain the close interrelationship between geodesy, 

photogrammetry, cartography, and map presentation giving each its full consideration; to recognise and accommodate the current development and deployment of information and graphical systems based on approximate and

Discussion 79
occasional geographical referencing, which may otherwise 

retard and undermine the establishment of homogeneous, 

comprehensive, and flexible computerised information 

systems for the use of all users; to review the accuracies of 

maps, the scales of mapping, the cost of mapmaking, and 

the production procedures; and to undertake the appropriate mapping of the urban areas.

Moreover, in the development of topographical information systems, a major interest will be the structuring of 

the data and the arrangement of the data in their hierarchies and associations. In this regard, the geometric pattern of linear features, clearly seen in medium scale 

topographical maps, can be the skeleton on which is arranged the complete topographical anatomy of the 

environment.

The cartographer, using the term in its broadest sense 

as mapmaker, needs to adapt modern technology and in 

particular computerised technology to the cartographic 

profession, not for innovation's sake but to serve the user 

and ultimately the payer (tax or private) more efficiently 

and more economically.

Automation in cartography has produced several 

trends:

 It has moved the focus of attention for deciding 

map accuracy away from the cartographic drafting 

and presentation, and directed the focus of attention on the practical accuracies achieved by the 

photogrammetric operator and surveyor.

 It has augmented the possible content and usage of 

maps and map data.

 It has suggested a practical separation of map production between the basic topographical data and 

the other data of a supplementary topographical or 

thematic kind in order to achieve more economical 

products.

 It has generated a possible reappraisal of the choice 

of map scale for a particular need.

 It has emphasized the requirement for an overall or 

holistic view to be taken of mapmaking.

 It has necessitated a continuous and critical assessment of the costs and responsibilities of production.

There is another reason for careful management. 

The attraction of instant maps may cause a lowering of 

cartographic standards of presentation, and may overemphasize the needs of particular specialisms, often governmental, at the expense of the general map user. Such 

happenings should be detected early, and contained to ensure overall progress.

Let us not permit the technology to debase the art of 

cartography. Automated cartography need not make

Philistines of us. On the contrary, the promise of more 

refined drafting of higher accuracy should provide greater 

scope for the exercise of the science and art of cartography. It is to be hoped that the opportunity for such 

advancement will be seized.

Digital Cartographic Data

The general requirements of maps for road building 

have not altered in the change from traditional mapping to 

digital mapping. The examination of the topography, the 

preliminary siting of the road, the calculation of earthworks, the final siting and the setting-out are still required. 

However digital mapping has these advantages:

 It can produce graphical maps which are more accurate at a selected scale by reason of the more accurate machine-drafting.

 It can display all or enlarged portions of the map 

on display screens, on which tentative siting can be 

quickly superimposed for consideration and assessment.

 It can present on demand the coordinate data and 

other textual data of areas of interest shown on the 

display screen for the calculation of distances, 

areas, volumes of earthworks, etc., and for administrative information.

As with maps produced in the traditional era, the 

digital maps of an area which are available will be dependent on the value of the area or on the potential value of 

the area after development. The scale of the map and the 

accuracy and resolution of the digital data will decide the 

fineness of depiction of the roads and of the other cartographic features.

For example, the United States and Canada in their 

national topographic map production are working at the 

medium scales of 1:24,000 and 1:50,000, respectively. 

These are generalised scales, and the depiction of the roads 

is generalised. In the large-scale maps produced of urban 

areas, say at the scale of 1:1,000, the major features of a 

road are not generalised in the depiction, which differs appreciably from the depiction at the medium scales even 

after allowing for the change of scale. "With generalisation 

art enters into cartography."

It is also worth noting that using the set of digital data 

appropriate to the largest scale to produce the large- and 

medium-scale maps, say from 1:1,000 to 1:125,000, by 

automated cartography, will not only require the data to 

cover the area, but will also require certain editorial corrections to be made on the generalisation of the features, 

beyond the deletion and smoothing of features. As yet,

80 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
these editorial corrections are most economically and effectively done by manual intervention on the proof copy or 

display screen.

Different agencies, offices and firms, public and 

private, are likely to become experts at the different map 

scales, and many banks or stores or bases of cartographic 

digital data will be created at the medium and at the large 

scales. As with maps, the digital data will have their range 

of uses depending upon their accuracy and resolution. Further data of interest to specialist users can be added if the 

data are of the appropriate accuracy. Many digital systems 

are likely to be created working at the same scale or accuracy, and also at other scales or accuracies. The exchange of data between such systems is a necessary aim to 

make the maximum and most economical use of the data

collected. Common standards are therefore necessary for 

the definition of cartographic features and for the coding, 

structure and arrangement of digital data to enable the exchange of digital data after further processing where 

necessary.

Lewis John Harris 

Royal Engineers, Retired 

P.O. Box 22129 

Knoxville, Tennessee 37922

Discussion 81
Satellite Data Systems

G. Konecny

Institute of Photogrammetry, University of Hannover

Representative to the U.S. Geological Survey Centennial, for the European Space Agency as 

Chairman of the Metric Camera Working Group

INTRODUCTION

As a member of the European surveying and mapping 

community, who has been asked to represent the European 

Space Agency at this meeting, I feel greatly honoured to 

help to celebrate the United States Geological Survey's 

one-hundredth anniversary and this for two reasons: First, 

the Geological Survey represents one of the largest mapping organizations in the world. We have discussed the 

status of surveying and mapping and its increasing progress and efficiency by modern technology, which only now 

makes it possible to map countries as large as continents in 

sufficient detail. The U.S. Geological Survey is one of the 

few organizations which have already proved that this is 

possible. Second, the Geological Survey in cooperation 

with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration is managing the Earth Resources Observation Program by satellites, which by no means is only an American 

program, but which is appreciated the world over, and has 

given the U.S. Geological Survey international recognition 

for its contributions in many disciplines.

It is not the applications of a satellite program to these 

disciplines that we are primarily concerned about in this 

session, but its suitability to gather map data. When I am 

to talk about satellite data systems I have a relatively short 

history to review. It only dates back 22 years when the 

Soviet Union launched Sputnik in 1957. In the meantime 

about 1,000 satellites have been launched by the United 

States alone including over 350 by NASA and about 

1,400 by the Soviet Union. We remember well the 

achievements of both these nations in exploring the moon 

and our planets.

It is only relatively recently that other nations have 

ventured to enter space technology, establishing their own 

space programs. But this decision has been largely based 

on the experiences and the success of the space programs in 

the U.S.A. and the USSR.

The formation of the European Space Agency (ESA) 

was accomplished in 1974. It is based on the conviction 

that the countries of Europe do not have the resources to 

start their individual space programs, but that they can afford a joint program if they pool their resources.

In planning their own space program the countries of 

Europe have the advantage that they can concentrate on 

those space applications which have already been found to 

be indispensable in the U.S. and the USSR programs.

Applications which have so far become practical concern the following types of satellites:

1. Weather satellites, which today permit tracing 

weather conditions all around the globe.

2. Communications satellites, which have vastly improved intercontinental telephone connections 

and which make it possible to transmit live television programs around the globe.

3. Navigational satellites, which now permit the 

worldwide positioning of ships and planes. They 

have even revolutionized geodetic control survey 

techniques for developing countries.

4. Reconnaissance satellites, which are of indisputable military interest.

5. Satellites to explore geophysical parameters such 

as the contour of the Earth and its gravity 

distribution, the Earth magnetic field, or the 

parameters of the atmosphere.

6. Earth observation satellites, which give new data 

to a multitude of disciplines: on the topography of 

the Earth, geologic phenomena, the distribution 

and the state of vegetation, the cultivation of soil, 

the settled areas, the state of the oceans and coasts 

and the record of catastrophic events by flood, 

storms and fires.

IMAGE-GENERATING SATELLITES

Within this session on perspectives in surveying, mapping and cartography, we should restrict ourselves to 

satellite missions which are able to generate images for 

evaluation and interpretation. These are

1. The weather satellites.

2. The automatically operating Earth-resources 

satellites.

3. The reconnaissance satellites.

4. The manned orbital missions permitting Earth 

photography.

82 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The weather satellites (table 1) were the first application satellites. The Kosmos series of the USSR and the 

TIROS series of the U.S.A. delivered space photographs 

of the Earth as early as 1960. The European Space Agency 

has operated its first meteorological satellite, Meteosat, 

since 1977. Meteosat is a geostationary satellite placed at a 

height of 36,000 km. It is one of the five such satellites 

planned in the international Global Atmospheric Research 

Program (GARP). Together with the U.S. Geostationary 

Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) and the 

Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS), it 

is part of the global weather watch.

Table 1 Meteorological satellites

OPERATIONAL ORBITAL 

NAME AND COUNTRY PERIOD ALTITUDE

SPATIAL 

RESOLUTION

TIROS 1-10, 

U.S.A. _____ 1960-1965 700 km

ESS A 1-9, 

U.S.A. _ 1966-1969 1,500 km

NOAA Series, 

U.S.A. _____ 1970- 1,500 km

Kosmos 1-92 

USSR ______ 1959-1965 250 km

Kosmos-226 

USSR ______ 1965-1969 600 km

Meteor Series

USSR ______ 1970-

3.5 km w/vidicon 

camera (visible)

3.5 km w/vidicon

camera

(visible and APT)

0.9km

(visible and thermal)

film capsule 

Vidicon and IR 

Vidicon, IR and APT

GOES 

U.S.A. 35,800 km

Meteosat 

ESA _______ 1977- 36,000 km

GMS 

Japan

It contains a rotating imaging radiometer capable of 

generating images in 3 bands:

1. The visible and photographic infrared (0.4 to 1.1 

m).

2. The water vapour band (5.7 to 7.1 m).

3. The thermal (10.5 to 12.5 m).

Each picture contains 2,500 x 2,500 elements giving a 

picture element size of 5 km. The analysis of the images 

received every half hour to derive wind vectors for weather 

forecasting is done at the ESOC Center in Darmstadt. 

Meteosat has been the first goal achieved in the European 

Earth Observation Program from space.

Concerning the second group of satellite imaging 

systems, the Earth-resources satellites (table 2), the European countries like the countries of Latin America, 

Africa, or Asia have had the benefit of obtaining imagery from the American Earth-observation satellites, progressing from Nimbus to Landsat to Seasat.

Table 2 U.S. land observation satellites

NAME

OPERATIONAL 

PERIOD

ORBITAL 

ALTITUDE RESOLUTION

Nimbus 1-6 ____ 1964- 1,000 km Vidicon 1 km 

IR-scanner 8 km

ATS 1-4 ______ 1966-68 35,800 km color

Landsat 1 _____ 1972-78 919 km

Landsat 2 _____ 1975- 919 km 

Landsat 3 _____ 1978- 919 km

Seasat 1 ______ 1978- 790 km

pixel size 79 m 

4 channels

pixel size 79 m 

4 channels 

or

pixel size 30 m 

1 channel

pixel size 35 m 

radar X-band

The advantage of Landsat is primarily the relatively 

high resolution in the 4 visible-near infrared bands. A pixel 

size of 79 x 79 m is obtainable of nearly every place on 

Earth every 18 days, if not covered by clouds. To talk 

about Landsat at the U.S. Geological Survey means carrying water to the ocean. Here is just an example: we use its 

digital processing capability, as other nations have, for 

land use mapping combined with a topographical map.

The European Space Agency operates its own satellite 

data reception and distribution network Earthnet. Within 

the Earthnet network the Italian station Fucino receives 

Landsat data while Seasat data are received by the British 

station Oakhanger and Nimbus data by the French station 

Mannion.

Seasat was of particular interest to cloud-covered 

Europe, but after about 100 days it ceased to operate its 

X-band imaging radar, which was capable of providing a 

100-km-wide image strip from its 790 km height at a 20° 

inclination with 25 m pixels. The biggest problem with 

Seasat data is still that of data processing. To process the 

coherent radar data, available in holographic form, extensive digital filtering operations are required; so far this is 

not possible in a fast and economic manner.

Very little is known in Europe about the capability of 

military reconnaissance satellites (table 3) operating with 

cameras and film retrieval systems. Nevertheless we are 

convinced that they presently can produce the highest 

quality imagery from space.

Table 3 U.S. military reconnaissance satellites

NAME

OPERATIONAL 

PERIOD

ESTIMATED

ORBITAL SPATIAL 

ALTITUDE RESOLUTION

SAMOS 1-80

MIDAS _____

Big Bird ________

film camera,

c = 90 cm

visible, IR, UV,

c = 90cm

film camera,

c=1.8 m

1962-1972

1967-

1973-

150 km

30,000 km

geostationary

150 km

15 m

7

1-2 m

Satellite Data Systems 83
Table 4 History of manned missions space photography of the Earth since 1965

MISSION AND YEAR

Gemini 4-7

(1965) 

Gemini 10-12

(1966)

Apollo 7

(1968) 

Apollo 9

(1969) 

Skylab (S190A)

(1973) 

Skylab (S190B)

(1973) 

SOYUZ 22-30

CAMERA TYPE

Hasselblad, C. Zeiss-Optik

Maurer

R220 Maurer

Hasselblad, C. Zeiss-Optik

ITEK

ETC Action

MKF-6, Jena

ORBITAL 

ALTITUDE

200 km 

200 km 

225-420 km 

192-496 km 

435 km 

435 km 

250 km

FOCAL LENGTH

80 mm 

80 mm 

80 mm 

80 mm 

152 mm 

460 mm 

125 mm

FILM FORMAT

5.7x5.7 

5.7x5.7 

5.7x5.7 

5.7x5.7 

5.7x5.7 

11.5x11. 

5.5x8.1

cm 

cm 

cm 

cm 

cm 

5 cm 

cm

RESOLUTION

20 Ip/mm 

20 Ip/mm 

35 Ip/mm 

35 Ip/mm 

29 Ip/mm 

25 Ip/mm 

80 Ip/mm

GROUND 

RESOLUTION

125 m 

125 m 

70 m 

70 m 

99 m 

38 m 

25 m

Manned orbital photography missions (table 4) on the 

other hand, such as those from Gemini, Apollo, and particularly Skylab, have given imagery that may be utilized to 

compare space photography with scanning and other 

automatic imaging systems.

The first photographic images from space, made 

available by the United States to many countries, were able 

to demonstrate what later automatic image acquisition 

systems with scanners such as Landsats 1, 2, and 3 were 

able to achieve from 1972 onward. The Landsat program 

has especially made the countries of the world aware of the 

potential of space imagery for the purposes of thematic 

mapping of features such as vegetation, hydrology, and 

land use. It was soon realized, however, that the Landsats 

1 and 2 spatial resolution whether of 79 m pixel size, or 

with Landsat 3 of 30 m pixel size, is much too coarse for 

reliable mapping to the standards of a topographic map.

Both the U.S.A. and the USSR have demonstrated 

with improved camera systems in the missions Skylab 

(1973) and Soyuz (since 1976) that photographic resolutions between 25 and 40 m (corresponding to pixel sizes of 

about 10 to 15 m) could be reached. These cameras were 

photogrammetrically calibrated and they possessed imagemotion compensation. The drawback of these space 

photography missions was that the missions were of 

relatively short duration, covering only isolated parts of 

the globe. Moreover, the formats of the images were not 

usable in standard photogrammetric plotting equipment. 

For that reason the capabilities of space photography 

could not be fully demonstrated to the mapping community throughout the world.

SATELLITE DATA FOR MAPPING

I cannot show images to be taken in the future, but I 

can show a few American examples, which help us find a 

viewpoint for a person engaged in mapping.

Most countries used Landsat images in analog form 

for photographic interpretation of geographical,

Figure 1 Digitally processed Landsat scene of the Washington, 

D.C. (U.S.A.) area magnified to about 1:200,000.

TM9& *$n! »i*Pl% - - ' ^^Vfh-^

84 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
geological, hydrological, biological, or agricultural 

regional phenomena.

Much better interpretation results were achieved in 

multispectral classification of terrain features utilizing the 

4 spectral channels of Landsat data in digital form. While 

digital treatment of Landsat data was demonstrated to be 

superior in every respect to analog interpretation, it was 

realized at the same time that digital processing of Landsat 

data is very time-consuming and very costly. For that 

reason all received Landsat images cannot be digitally 

processed at the moment to give optimal interpretation 

results.

At the same time the detectability of an object is 

limited to about 2.5 times the pixel size. Therefore Landsats 1 and 2 images are able to resolve objects with sufficient contrast with certainty only if they are at least 200 m 

in size. Figures 1 through 5 demonstrate this.

Figure 2 Equivalent image (see fig. 1) from Skylab with increased resolution.

Figure 3 Landsat scene microscopic enlargement to 1:25,000 

processed to limit on the laser recorder.

Figure 4 Same scene (see fig. 3) at 1:25,000 from Skylab.

Satellite Data Systems 85
•ir-sfe*»«%

Figure 5 This image of Cape Canaveral, Florida (U.S.A.), 

demonstrates the relatively higher resolution achieved by Landsat 

3. It is, however, not yet comparable to camera resolution of 

Skylab.

Figure 6 Seasat radar image of Lake Geneva, Switzerland (portion at scale of 1:500,000).

Figure 7 Enlargement of a superior Goodyear GEMO 1,000 aircraft radar image of Phoenix, Arizona (U.S.A.) (1:160,000).

Reproductions in figures 6 through 9 demonstrate the 

capabilities but also the deficiencies of the radar imaging 

currently operational.

86 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
^ Figure 8 Phoenix, Arizona, radar image (fig. 7) to about 

1:30,000, shows that enlarging the scale of radar reflection images 

does not necessarily give better resolution.

Since many thematic and especially the topographic requirements call for detection of objects of a few meters in 

size only, future Earth-resources satellites (see tables 5 to 

12) will be designed to achieve smaller pixel sizes. In the 

United States Landsat D is being designed for a pixel size 

of 30 m. Likewise France has decided on a pixel size of 10 

to 30 m for the SPOT satellite. The U.S. proposals for the 

Stereosat satellite (15 m) of the European Space Agency 

(LASS and COMS, 30 m) and of Japan call for higher 

resolution than Landsats 1 and 2.

Table 5 U.S. remote sensing programs from space_________

Basic support programs Specifications and capabilities

1. Space Shuttle ________ Reusable transporter.

2. TDRSS ____________. Worldwide satellite communication system via geostationary

3. Multimission modular 

spacecraft _________

satellites.

Various spacecraft.

Figure 9 The high displacements of the Seasat image due to 

topography in Europe's Mont Blanc region render this radar 

image almost useless for a geographical reference.

Systems under construction

1. Landsat D, 1982 ______ Thematic mapper:

6 bands: 0.42-2.35 m,

pixel size 30 m 

1 band: 10-12.5 m,

pixel size 120 m 

85 Mbit/second data rate

via TDRSS.

2. Shuttle Experiments

a. Large-format camera _ Orbit: 296 km circular

30 cm focal length 

23 x 46 cm format 

2,400-photo spool capacity, 

b. Seasat radar _______ (X and L band). 

Planned systems

1. Mapsat (USGS) _______ Normal and convergent stereo

1 band, pixel size 10 m

2 bands, pixel size 20 m 

45 Mbit/second data rate 

Orbit: 900 km circular.

2. Stereosat _______________

(Jet Propulsion 

Laboratory)

3. Multimission modular 

spacecraft with largeformat camera.

Convergent stereo

3 diode arrays

Pixel size 15 m. 

Operational life 6-9 months

Parking orbit: 900 km

Mission orbit: 250 km.

Satellite Data Systems 87
Table 6 Other countries' remote sensing programs from space

under construction

under construction

and planned:

for 1983

for 1987

planned

USSR (Interkosmos)

Soyuz ______________________ MKF.6

France:

SPOT on ARIANE _________________________

20 m pixel size 2 bands

10 m pixel size panchromatic

250 images storage

Japan ______________________________________________

MOS (Marine Observation Satellite) 

50 m pixel size, visible and thermal 

LOS (Land Observation Satellite) 

30 m pixel size

People's Republic of China ________________________

Program of the Jen Hsi-Min Space 

Technology Institute

Table 7 European Space Agency remote sensing programs

from space _____

A. Basic support programs

1. Construction of Spacelab (by ERNO) for multipurpose use in Space Shuttle, the 

retrievable NASA space transporter

2. Construction of European rocket Ariane 

B. Systems under construction

1. Spacelab 1 Experiment

photogrammetric camera Zeiss RMK 30/23:

3 films = 1,650 photos 

mission duration 1 week 

start up: April 18, 1982

2. Spacelab 1 Experiment

microwave remote sensing models of operation: 

a. microwave scatterometer 

b. passive thermal sensor 

_____c. imaging radar in X-bands 25 m pixels, image width 9 km__________________

Table 8 Spacelab camera-mission

Camera type:

Orbit:

Film load:

Film evaluation by:

Modified Zeiss 30/23 

h = 250 km, i = 57°, 8 days 

3 rolls, 1,650 exposures 

IGN & CNES (France) 

IFAG & DFVLR (Germany) 

University of Milan 

University of Hannover

Table 9 Microwave experiment for Spacelab mission

[Joint construction project by Dornier of France and DFVLR 

of Germany]___________________________

Synthetic aperture radar

X-band ____________ 9.6 GHz 

Antenna inclination ___ 45°

Sensitivity ___________ 1 db

Dynamic range _______ -30 db to + 10 db

Resolution __________ 100 x 100 m

(25 X 25 m required)

Table 10 European Space Agency plans for Earth-resources 

programs

1. LASS (Land Applications Satellite System) 

a. 30 m pixel diode array (6 channels) 

b. 60 m pixel scanner (refl.IR) (2 channels) 

c. 120 m pixel thermal scanner (2 channels) 

d. 100 m pixel synthetic aperture radar

2. COMSS (Coastal Ocean Monitoring Satellite System)

a. ocean color scanner (7 channels, narrow spectral bands): f. Chlorophyll; visible 5; thermal 2 

b. synthetic aperture radar 30 m pixel 

c. microwave radiometer

3. Atlas program (see table 12)

under study in Federal Republic of Germany: camera in space

One of the limiting factors to the achievement of the 

desired resolution suitable for topographic mapping is the 

data transmission rate. In a Landsat image 3,200 image 

elements are digitized every 50 m along the scan (yielding 

an equivalent pixel size of 79 m) with 8-bit gray level information for each of the 4 spectral channels. With one scan 

every 79 m with a velocity of 7.7 km/sec, a total of 97 

scans must be made per second. To transmit these a data 

rate of 10 Mbit/sec is required.

For Landsat D a data rate of 84 Mbit/sec will be necessary. The present technological limit is 200 Mbit/sec, 

disregarding cost considerations. To reach the potential of 

current photography achievable with photogrammetric 

cameras, however, a data rate of 900 Mbit/sec would be 

required. During the next decade it does not appear to be 

feasible to reach this rate economically. Space photography therefore surpasses the capabilities of automatic sensors to provide data to solve cartographic problems at 

medium and small scales.

PLANNED AND SUGGESTED SPACE 

PHOTOGRAPHY MISSIONS

As surveys of world mapping progress published in 

"World Cartography" (no. XIV) indicate, current mapping 

methods utilizing aerial photography are progressing too 

slowly. That progress not only is a function of the area to 

be mapped but also relates to the number of photographs 

to be utilized for mapping. Systematic photographic coverage from space leads to utilization of far fewer photographs and to far fewer control requirements, and should 

therefore lead to a faster progress in mapping.

Requirements that can be achieved for this space 

photography are as follows:

1. A sufficient resolution to detect all objects of interest.

2. A specified positional accuracy commensurate 

with mapping standards.

3. A specified elevation accuracy commensurate with

mapping standards.

These requirements vary for the different mapping 

scales and for different types of terrain. Based on these 

specific requirements a suitable space mapping system 

utilizing photographic cameras can be designed. The Institute of Photogrammetry at the University of Hannover, 

in collaboration with the German Space Agency (DFVLR), 

is engaged in a study of a suitable space photographic 

system in the so-called "Atlas Program." The technical 

realization of the project is being studied by the ERNO 

Company.

The Atlas Program is composed of three phases: 

Phase A: Utilization of a standard mapping camera 

in space to acquire photographic imagery 

from a low orbit out of a pressurized 

manned cabin.

88 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Table 11 The Atlas program

[Atlas A is under construction; B is under discussion; C is planned]

Atlas A

Zeiss RMK 30/23 in Spacelab 1 for 1982 _______________ manned Spacelab module with 3 cassettes: 1,650 photos

Atlas B

Alternatives (a or b or c):

a. RMK 30/23 with image-motion compensation __________ pressure container on shuttle palette 

b. RMK 60/23 with IMC ________________________ pressure container on shuttle palette with large magazine 

c. TRb 60/24 with IMC ________________________ manned Spacelab module 

23 x 11.5 cm format.

Atlas C

New development alternatives (a or b or c): 

a. c = 30 cm _________ 23 x 23 cm format 

b. c = 60 cm _________ 23x23 cm format 

c. c = 75 cm _________ 18 x 18 cm format

pressure container on freeflyer with large magazine 

large magazine

Table 12 Performance specifications for the Atlas program

ORBITAL ALTITUDE

OPTICAL FOCAL 

LENGTH FILM FORMAT PHOTO AREA OPTICAL RESOLUTION B/W

OPTICAL RESOLUTION 

COLOR IR

Atlas A Mission

250km 205 mm 23 x 23 cm 189x189 km 40 Ip/mm 21 m 254 Ip/mm 33 m

Atlas B Mission

250km 

250km 

250km

153 mm 

305 mm 

610 mm

23x23 cm 

23 x 23 cm 

23 x 23 cm

380x380 km 

189x189 km 

95x95 km

100 Ip/mm 16 m 

70 Ip/mm 12 m 

60 Ip/mm 7 m

50 Ip/mm 32 m 

35 Ip/mm 24 m 

30 Ip/mm 14 m

Atlas C Mission

516km 

480km 

360km 

360km

750mm 

610 mm 

610 mm 

305 mm

18x18 cm 

23 x 23 cm 

23x23 cm 

23 x 23 cm

380x380 km 

189x189 km 

95x95 km 

380x380 km

60 Ip/mm 12 m 

60 Ip/mm 13 m 

60 Ip/mm 10 m 

70 Ip/mm 17 m

30 Ip/mm 24 m 

30 Ip/mm 26 m 

30 Ip/mm 20 m 

35 Ip/mm 34 m

Phase B: Use of an improved camera (optics image 

motion compensation) from a pressurized 

unmanned container. 

Phase C: Use of the container in a free-flying

retrievable unmanned satellite. 

While phase B and C are at the proposal stage, phase 

A will be realized as an experiment during the first European Spacelab mission now scheduled to be carried into orbit in the NASA Space Shuttle Program in April 1982.

SPACELAB 1 METRIC CAMERA EXPERIMENT

The government of the Federal Republic of Germany 

has placed at the disposal of the European Space Agency a 

Carl Zeiss, Oberkochen, RMK 30/23 photogrammetric 

mapping camera, which has been modified at a European 

space facility to meet space requirements. While the experiment is funded by the government of the Federal Republic 

of Germany, the DFVLR is responsible for procurement and 

engineering carried out by Zeiss, ERNO, MBB and Kaiser 

Trethe to operate the camera electronically by ground 

commands and to accommodate it in the Spacelab module. 

ESA takes care of setting up the experiment proposal.

The response to announcement of the experiment was 

overwhelming. Over 100 institutions in all continents have

expressed a worldwide interest in experimenting with the 

imagery. Based on these proposals a time table for areas to 

be photographed has been drawn up, subject to cloud 

cover conditions permitting photography.

Altogether, 3 film magazines with a total of 1,650 

photographs can be exposed. In order to select the most 

suitable film types a joint cooperative test has been carried 

out utilizing high-altitude photography involving aircraft 

of the Institut Geographique National (IGN) France and 

the DFVLR. In the evaluation, the French Agencies CNES 

and IGN, the German agencies DFVLR and IFAG, as well 

as the Universities of Milano and Hannover, were involved. The tests are being carried out this fall (1979). 

They have already indicated that a photographic resolution 

of about 20 m (corresponding to a pixel size of 8 m) can be 

reached from Spacelab 1 utilizing black-and-white film. 

Infrared false-color films yield slightly lower, but still acceptable, resolutions, while the color films available cannot be recommended.

The photographs will be taken with 80 percent or 60 

percent overlap. The proposals have indicated that the images will be subject to a wide range of investigations and 

methods ranging from topographic to thematic mapping in 

various disciplines such as geography, geology, forestry, 

land-use planning, agriculture, hydrology, coastal

Satellite Data Systems 89
engineering, and oceanography. Concerning the methods 

to be used, all known mapping techniques are included: 

aerial triangulation, analog mapping, the use of analog 

plotters, rectification, orthophotomapping, and standard 

photointerpretation.

The experiments should give a clear indication over a 

wide area of the world as to whether further steps of the 

Atlas program should be pursued and with how much 

energy.

SUMMARY

There is a documented, urgent need for mapping on a 

worldwide basis for resource and social development. 

Present mapping techniques have been able to provide the 

required maps only in developed or in densely populated 

regions. However, a large part of the world still lacks such 

maps even at small scales. Present mapping techniques 

have been vastly improved but they are still not capable of 

providing the required maps in the next few decades. 

Satellite imagery from photogrammetric cameras offers a 

promising alternative, if resolution and geometric accuracy 

requirements can be met. Even where maps already exist 

there is a constant need to revise these maps. Also, satellite 

imagery may considerably accelerate the speed of updating

those existing maps. For these reasons, a mapping camera 

has been placed on Spacelab 1 in order to demonstrate the 

possible advantages of mapping from space photography. 

If the experiment is successful a further development of a 

free-flying, serviceable satellite carrying a mapping camera 

is foreseen for the mid-1980s. This camera should contain 

a magazine carrying film for several thousands of 

photographs and, under control of weather satellite information, should be able to cover almost the total land area 

of the world in a few months' time. Careful estimates indicate that space photographing operations should be 

more economical and less time-consuming than mapping 

by aerial photography or even by automatic data acquisition systems, should such cameras become available at 

higher resolutions in the 1990s.

G. Konecny

Institut fur Photogrammetrie

Technische Universitat Hannover

Neinburger Str. 1

D-3000 Hannover, W. Germany

90 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

F. J. Doyle

Acting Chief, EROS Program, U.S. Geological Survey

A real joy for a professor is to see the success of his 

students; in no case is this better exemplified for me than 

by Gottfried Konecny, who has established an international reputation in photogrammetry and general comprehension of surveying and mapping matters. A brief 

comment on the wealth of material that Gottfried has 

presented is difficult.

There are two points, however, that I can make. One is 

the relative applicability of the telemetered data systems 

and the photographic film systems operating from space. I 

think it's quite clear that the photographic technology 

operating on film is at a much lower level than that required for telemetered satellite data. There is an 

anomalous situation where the film systems on the one 

hand can produce much higher resolution and more of the 

kinds of cultural information that we need for base mapping. In general such base-map information is not required 

in a very urgent time frame, and is therefore amenable to a 

system which can return data weeks or even months after it 

is collected. The telemetered data systems on the other 

hand operate at a much lower resolution but require a 

higher level of technology to determine the time-variant information which is critical for management of the Earth's 

natural resources. I don't see any real competition between 

these two kinds of approaches; they are both essential, and 

both should be implemented.

The other point that seemed to me to come out from 

Gottfried's discussion is the variety of systems which are 

being proposed or being implemented by the various countries. One of the primary characteristics of satellites is, of 

course, that they all operate on a worldwide basis. 

Everybody's satellite can cover the whole Earth. The 

systems which we have seen in Gottfried's paper being built 

by the United States, by the European Space Agency, by 

Japan, and by the USSR have a great deal of similarity in 

terms of spectral bands, ground resolution, and potential 

coverage patterns. It seems to me that one of the primary 

things that we need to get on with is to establish cooperation in these programs rather than competition, so that the 

systems of one country can complement the activities of 

another. There are many other things that I'd like to say 

about this, but I'm going to hold those until the panel 

discussion afterward.

F. J. Doyle 

Topographic Division 

Mail Stop 516 

U.S. Geological Survey 

Reston, Virginia 22092

Discussion 91
Opportunities and Perspectives in Digital 

Mapping and Automated Cartography

J. M. Zarzycki

Director, Topographical Survey 

Department of Energy, Mines and Resources 

Ottawa, Canada

INTRODUCTION

It is generally accepted that accurate and up-to-date 

terrain information is the foundation of orderly exploration and management of natural resources and the planning of urban centres, transportation routes, preservation 

of environment, and a host of other activities related to 

man's exploits on Earth. Since the beginning of civilization 

the map or plan has been, and still remains today, the most 

common method of portraying terrain information. Cartographic conventions have evolved over the centuries 

from an artistic portrayal of the terrain to a more technical 

or scientific representation of the Earth's surface. Today 

an increasing number of users demand terrain data in 

digital form in addition to, or in place of, the traditional 

graphics.

The developments in the last decade in computer technology, particularly in the field of computer graphics, have 

opened new vistas to those engaged in providing and 

managing terrain information. These developments have 

far-reaching implications, with effects on the storage, 

display and use of topographic information that are not 

yet fully appreciated.

In the traditional approach, the graphic manuscript or 

the reproduction negatives are the principal archival 

storage of the terrain information. In digital mapping the 

graphic manuscript is replaced by a digital data file, and 

the graphic data base is replaced by a topographic digital 

data base.

Digital mapping technology has the potential to greatly facilitate the use of terrain data by many other professions that are employing geo-referencing principles for the 

presentation and analysis of their own data, and are overlaying information peculiar to their disciplines upon a 

topographic map (or a skeleton of it) to display an almost 

infinite variety of themes. The use of "digital maps" in 

engineering applications is increasing steadily.

We now have the technology to create digital topographic data banks and data bases. But the degree of 

usefulness of digital terrain information and consequently 

the economic benefits of digital mapping will depend, to a 

large extent, on the degree of sophistication of the classification system of topographic features, an efficient 

reference system of all data and a file structure that provides for extensive data base management operations. Simple digitizing and encoding of terrain data for subsequent 

drawing by a computer-assisted drafting table will not 

satisfy the needs of most users of digital data. The system 

must not only provide capabilities to satisfy general cartographic data processing but must be capable of providing the base for geographically-referenced information 

systems. However, we must be cognizant of the fact that, 

despite great advances in digital mapping technology and 

data base management systems during the last decade, we 

have not yet reached the stage where the computer can efficiently provide answers to all questions related to the information contained in a digital data base. A human looking 

at a map immediately perceives the spatial relations between features but the computer performs dismally in this 

area and the associated computer costs are often extremely 

high.

COMPONENTS OF A DIGITAL MAPPING SYSTEM

Any digital mapping system consists of three basic 

components:

1. The data base management system.

2. The data input or data collection system.

3. The data output system.

The Data Base Management System

The data base management system is the most critical 

element of the total system. Its structure and sophistication 

will determine the degree of usefulness of the collected 

data. The structure and composition of data base management systems are being vigorously discussed and

92 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
thoroughly investigated by senior officers of many national mapping programs, and I think it fair to say no consensus has as yet been reached. It is an adventurous person 

who attempts to describe the ultimate management system, 

so I will limit myself to describing briefly the data base 

structure employed at Topographical Survey of Canada. 

But before I begin, I would like to make the distinction 

between data bank and data base.

A digital data bank is a collection of data stored in 

files, which can be accessed and retrieved in an orderly 

manner. Just as books might be withdrawn from or replaced in a library by using the catalogue shelf number or 

book number, so can an item (e.g., a given contour) or file 

(e.g., file of all contours) be accessed or retrieved in a 

digital data bank. The action in both cases is independent 

from the intended use of the information contained in the 

book or in the digital file. It is a process of simple retrieval 

of information and there is no facility to relate information contained in files to each other or to answer questions 

about this relationship (i.e., number of houses above certain elevation).

On the other hand, a digital data base contains, in addition to the files, functions for the user to define in terms 

of a logical model the data elements and the particular 

association between these elements. The data base system, 

by means of appropriate software, accesses the data and 

brings them into association to fulfill the user's requirements, or to provide the answer to the question the 

user has asked.

The operation is similar to putting a question to a 

researcher in a library. The researcher would get the data 

from the books and bring them together for study to 

enable the question to be answered.

The access paths in a digital data bank and a data base 

are not the same. In the digital data bank the access paths 

are the file and the physical organization of the files. It is 

basically a file management operation. In the digital data 

base, however, the access paths within the computer 

system and storage are defined by the user's model for 

bringing the relevant or selected data into association. 

Since it is not feasible to foresee all possible applications of 

digital data, the data are collected without prior knowledge 

of all their subsequent possible uses. Therefore, data must 

be collected and stored in such a manner that their eventual 

use is not tied specifically to a single application, but is 

available for a variety of applications.

The Canadian Topographic Digital Data Base 

Management System: The digital topographic data base 

system of the Canadian Topographical Survey is feature 

oriented. To simplify the storage and management of the 

very large amounts of data required for mapping, an efficient means of referencing the data is necessary. The cartographic features are organized on the basis of map 

sheets, each of which will correspond to a file in a digital

system. The sum total of the individual map sheet files 

constitutes a file system. At the file system level of data 

handling, there is a capability of data storage, data access 

and data retrieval, based on the knowledge of data content 

and data organization of the files. Each feature is classified 

according to its cartographic definition, i.e., roads, 

bridges, houses, contours, etc., and may be divided into as 

many segments as the user wishes. A feature (fig. 1) may 

have associated with it a number of attributes or characteristics; for example, a contour may be described in terms 

of its height, location (on land, ice or glacier) and type 

(normal, depression, approximate, auxiliary); a road in 

terms of its name, road type or construction, and so on.

FEATURE = CONTOUR n

HEIGHT =

WHERE

Numeric

Land

Icefield

Snowf ield

Glacier

 1

TYPE Normal

Depression

Approximate

Approximate Depression

Auxiliary

Auxiliary Depression

Figure 1 Feature attributes as classified by the Canadian 

Topographical Survey.

Each feature entity is described by a different set of attribute values that make the feature unique. Retrieval of 

any feature may be based on attribute values. The basis for 

all cartographic features is their position on the Earth's 

surface. Therefore, each feature is defined in terms of its 

Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates. Textual information, such as names, is also included in the 

data base, but cannot be used for retrieval as this is 

unstructured information. Features of like type are 

grouped into classes and the classes are grouped to form a 

map (fig. 2).

Data Input System

The input to a topographical cartographic data base 

comes basically from two sources:

1. Digitization of existing graphics.

2. Direct digitization from air photography on a 

photogrammetric instrument.

The choice between one or the other method depends 

very much on local conditions and requirements. A county 

which has accurate up-to-date maps at different scales

Digital Mapping and Automated Cartography 93
MAP

class class class class

feature feature

segment segment

- Formatted Data 

(Attributes)

- Textual Data (Toponymy)

- Coordinate Data

- External Reference Data 

(Association Between 

Features or Segments)

- Cartographic Data

MAP FILE

Figure 2 Classification of map features in digital topographic 

data base system of the Canadian Topographical Survey.

would most likely opt for digitizing of existing graphics by 

employing manual digitizers, semi-automatic line following such as the one developed by Laser-Scan of the United 

Kingdom, or Raster-Scan techniques.

The last two have made considerable progress during 

the last few years. The development of interactive (manmachine) graphic data collection and editing systems 

makes the digitization on photogrammetric instruments a 

practical proposition. It gives the stereoplotter operator 

unrestricted access to the digital data of the stereomodel he 

is compiling and of the surrounding stereomodels compiled by him or others (fig. 3). The operator may view 

these models at any scale on a CRT (cathode ray tube) and 

perform any necessary corrections or editing. He can tie in 

adjacent stereomodels and perform any required function 

on the digital data that he normally would on a penciled 

manuscript in the graphical compilation mode.

Instruments such as the Gestalt Photomapper 2 (fig. 4) 

generate a dense grid of terrain elevations which can form 

a part of a digital topographic data base.

Data Output System

Digital data offer the possibility of producing on demand an unlimited variety of outputs. However, in order 

to harness the full power offered to us by digital 

technology, we must re-examine our practices, concepts 

and traditions surrounding the cartographic conventions 

which were designed to a large degree to accommodate the 

abilities and limitations of the human draftsman. We must

revise cartographic specifications to take full advantage of 

computer-assisted drafting systems and not attempt to 

make the computer slavishly duplicate human operations. 

However, we must not lose sight of the basic objective of 

making a map, that is to portray the terrain with clarity 

and fidelity in accordance with the needs of today's map 

users.

Since the geometric accuracy of terrain data is contained in the digital data, the positional accuracy of the 

graphics could be of secondary importance. One can 

foresee that future maps will be printed and distributed in 

a different manner than today. The production of printing 

plates directly from digital representation files would 

eliminate most if not all of the photo-mechanical processes. Organizations or even individuals could interrogate 

regional digital topographic data bases and view a map 

display on a CRT in their office or at home. They may 

even have the ability to produce the map of their interest in 

monochrome or in colour. The technology to accomplish 

this is now available.

SOME IMPLICATIONS OF DIGITAL TOPOGRAPHIC 

DATA BASES

The accuracy of the topographic data acquired by 

graphical mapmaking methods and then subsequently 

digitized is always constrained by the compilation scale. 

However, this is not the case when terrain data are digitized directly in the stereoplotter. Whereas in the traditional 

mapping process the original graphic manuscript compiled 

photogrammetrically at a given scale is the limiting factor 

governing the accuracy of topographic data, in digital map 

compilation the accuracy of the data is limited only by the 

scale of the photography, and the visual acuity and manual 

dexterity of the photogrammetric operator. The accuracy 

of the digital data is independent of map scale. There is no 

displacement of features to avoid crowding and no slippage of the scribing tool in following a different line. The 

digital data are always of higher accuracy than the resulting graphics. Thus maps at several scales can be automatically drawn from the same photogrammetrically obtained digital data to graphic accuracies that are standard 

for each scale.

When we speak of a map at a given scale we intuitively 

form a mental concept as to the accuracy and content of 

terrain information portrayed on that map. However, in 

terms of digital data, "scale" becomes meaningless. We 

have to develop and get used to a new concept applicable 

to the digital environment, which would be equivalent to 

the concept of "scale" in the graphical environment. This 

new concept would include standards of geometric accuracy, precision and level of topographical content of 

digital data. For example, at the lowest level of content a 

road may be defined by its centre line. At a higher level the

94 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Figure 3 Wild B-8 with interactive digiting and editing unit.

Figure 4 Operator console of Gestalt Photomapper GPM-2.

Digital Mapping and Automated Cartography 95
Figure 5 Interactive cartographic editing station.

road could become a "host feature" defined by the lines 

demarcating the sidewalk, shoulders, ditches and right of 

way.

Traditionally terrain elevation is represented by contours. This type of relief depiction is well understood by 

most map readers, but for computer applications the relief 

is best represented by a digital elevation model. It could be 

then argued that the digital topographic data base should 

contain digital elevation model (DEM) information and 

not contours. Contours at different intervals could be 

automatically generated on demand from the OEM's.

In digital mapping two basic types of digital files 

should be considered:

1. Position file.

2. Representation file.

The position file contains edited and checked data collected directly in digital form on a photogrammetric instrument or from large-scale plans where the position and 

shape of features is not distorted by cartographic representation. In this file all topographical features are recorded 

in their true geographical position without regard to cartographic symbolization.

The representation file is created by the cartographer 

for each scale of map from the position file. A computerassisted interactive cartographic system permits the cartographer to displace or delete features (fig. 5), select appropriate symbols, and then issue appropriate commands 

for the automatic drafting of colour separation negatives.

On the surface it would appear that the creation of the 

position and representation files could be accomplished independently by the photogrammetrist and the cartographer without reference to one another. This, 

however, is not the case. The classification and referencing 

of topographic features, and the coding and organization 

of the digital files at the data collection stage, has an enormous influence on the software required for the cartographic treatment of the data. In fact, the classification 

and referencing governs the efficiency of the cartographic 

phases of map production and the whole data base structure. Therefore, development and operation of a digital 

mapping system which includes computer-driven negative 

scribing must be a joint effort of the photogrammetristtopographer and the cartographer. The computer scientist 

is naturally an important member of the team, but he must 

remain subservient to the mapmaker.

The successful application of a digital mapping system 

in production depends not only on a thorough engineering development of the system, but to a large extent on 

clearly defined operational procedures and standards. Any 

deviation, however small, may render data useless, cause 

software systems to crash, or require costly manual 

intervention.

J. M. Zarzycki

Director

Topographic Survey

Surveys and Mapping Branch

Energy, Mines, and Resources Canada

615 Booth Street

Ottawa, Ontario, Canada K1A OE9

96 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

Ernst Spiess

Head, Cartographic Institute

Eidgenossische Technische Hochschule, Zurich, Switzerland

I would like to consider the notion of scale in digital 

mapping. "Digital data files no longer have any scale." 

This statement is not acceptable in this absolute form. 

Scale remains a relative notion. One of the great merits of 

digital map files is that the same geometric data can be 

used in a variety of different map products.

The situation of computer-assisted cartography is a 

desperate one at the moment. Hopefully it will not be so 

desperate in the near future. There are considerable moves 

towards joint efforts to improve the situation, e.g., by 

exchanging experience in data structuring and feature 

standardization.

Benefits of computer-aided techniques in cartography 

are manifold. There is a large field of overlap and connection between traditional techniques and these new tools. 

The use of the computer forces one to tackle all graphic 

representation problems more logically and the results are 

more consistent maps. Also computer-assisted techniques 

in cartography are still closely tied to reproduction procedures. The U.S. Geological Survey has always been a 

leader in this field.

E. Spiess

Cartographic Institute 

ETH-Honggerberg 

CH-8093 Zurich, Switzerland

Discussion 97
Panel Discussion

Rupert Southard (USGS): We will 

now invite questions from the audience.

Lauro Sodre Neto (Brazil): Professor 

Ternryd, you talked about tacheometry 

and telemetry and showed us the latest 

developments in instrumentation and 

techniques. I would like to ask you if you 

have notice of any research going on 

towards the end of modifying the initial 

input from the optical system to an electronics system or even acoustical system as 

we did in fire-control instruments where 

the directors and range finders of optical 

type were replaced by electronic or 

acoustic equipment.

Carl Ternryd (Sweden): Maybe I 

have misunderstood your question, but as 

far as I understood it I cannot answer it.

Rupert Southard: Does anyone else 

on the panel think he can handle that 

question?

Ernst Spiess (Switzerland): If I 

understood correctly it was a question on 

whether acoustical principles and electronic principles could replace the optical 

ones. My own feeling would be that the 

acoustical principles would work fine in 

water; however, not in air. As far as the 

optical systems are concerned, also in the 

pointing, an optical device would be of a 

better directional quality than an electronic system. When it comes to distance 

measurement of course it is quite clear 

that the difference is not too large between the two.

H. J. Vojacek (Australia): I have a 

question for Dr. Zarzycki. If you have all 

your data in digital form and you have 

output at, say, 1:250,000, how do you 

overcome the generalization problem? 

Also, how do you maintain the geomorphological character of contours?

J. M. Zarzycki (Canada): I do not 

believe that in the foreseeable future we 

will have effective and economical software to accomplish generalization by 

computer. The way we do generalization 

is through interactive graphics. A cartographer will display on a CRT the 

original file as collected by the 

photogrammetrist and then will amend 

this file for each of the scales required 

employing an interactive graphic process. 

We cannot eliminate human judgment. 

Even the simplest operation of generalization done by computer is quite expensive 

and not reliable. As far as the contours 

are concerned, if the contours were compiled in a stereoplotter, their geomorphological character can be easily maintained in this process. If the contours are 

derived from a digital elevation model, 

then you may have problems in certain 

areas, particularly in flat areas and where 

contours enter drainage. The cartographer can make the necessary correction to contours employing interactive 

graphic procedures.

A. P. Colvocoresses (USGS): This 

question is basically for Mr. Zarzycki but 

perhaps for the other members of the 

panel also. To what extent is digital image 

information such as Landsat being incorporated into the so-called digital data 

bases which are basically, as I understand 

it, the digitization of line work? If you see 

a change in open water, urbanization, or 

land use or vegetation, what steps are being taken to incorporate that data directly 

into your data base or data bank?

J. M. Zarzycki: So far we have not 

done anything about incorporating digital 

data from Landsat into our data base. 

The data which we have in the digital 

topographic data base are basically line 

features and the data from Landsat give 

digital image information.

Ernst Spiess: There has been research 

work done in Germany in generalizing 

linear data and apparently there were 

many problems. The first thesis, for instance, just concluded in finding out how 

7 high houses all in one row could be 

reduced to 3 houses all in one row, also on 

a wider road. As Dr. Zarzycki has said, 

you can have some programs which lead 

you a certain way along with generalization, but from a certain moment on, at the 

present stage of sophistication of the programs, you have to switch over to interactive techniques. How this goes on is a very 

difficult problem, mainly a storage problem. We found out that in many instances 

it is not ideal to store data in digital form. 

It is much better to produce a good output 

overlay and when you need it again you 

just play it back in the raster system. 

There was research work done also to 

switch over for generalization from line or 

vector systems to raster systems. It is a

real challenge to determine when each of 

these different techniques (vector mode, 

raster mode) gives you an advantage.

A European group has done research 

on how to revise maps. All of you are 

aware of the common revision procedures 

by photogrammetric means, or by orthophotos, and one of the big problems we 

found was that change detection is a major problem. If some houses disappear 

that is much more difficult to detect than 

all the additional houses you have to put 

in your map. There I see some hope from 

the raster image side. Whether Landsat is 

the correct answer to this problem of 

revising large scale maps there I would 

have quite a different opinion at the present moment.

Fred Doyle (USGS): I would like to 

comment also on the incorporation of 

digital image information into digital 

files. The Earth's land mass is about 

1012m2 . If you were to make a digital image file for the entire land mass of the 

Earth at the pixel resolution on the order 

of 10 meters, it would require 10' 2 pixels. 

About 50 bits are required to document a 

pixel in three spectral bands, giving a total 

of 5xl013 bits. The largest available 

digital storage device can hold about 10 12 

bits. Thus fifty of those storage devices 

would be required in order to record the 

entire land mass of the earth at a reasonable resolution and put it into a digital 

file. It would take about four months to 

transfer the file from storage to the computer. I think it is much more reasonable 

to do the type of land-cover classification 

that Landsat has proven very good at doing and then to outline that information 

and store only the outlines and not the 

total digital file.

Lauro Sodre Neto: Brigadier Harris, I 

would ask if there is a possibility of considering simultaneously topographic information, geological information, and 

even jurisdictional information when 

designing a new road. It should be possible in digital mapping, I think.

Lewis Harris (United Kingdom): The 

general requirements from maps for road 

building have not altered in the change 

from traditional mapping to digital mapping. The examination of the topography, 

the preliminary siting of the road, the

98 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
calculation of earthworks, the final siting 

and the setting-out are still required. 

However digital mapping can:

 produce graphical maps which are 

more accurate at a selected scale 

by reason of the more accurate 

machine-drafting;

 display all or enlarged portions of 

the map on display screens, on 

which tentative sitings can be 

quickly superimposed for consideration and assessment; and

 present on demand the coordinate 

data and other textual data of 

areas of interest shown on the 

display screen for the calculation 

of distances, areas, volumes of 

earthworks, etc., and for geological, soil, cadastral, and administrative information. 

As with maps in the traditional era, 

the digital maps of an area which are 

available will be dependent on the value of 

the area or on the potential value of the 

area after development. The scale of the 

map and the accuracy and resolution of 

the digital data will decide the fineness of 

depiction of the roads and of the other 

cartographic features.

For example, the United States and 

Canada in their national topographic map 

production are working at the medium 

scales of 1:24,000 and 1:50,000, respectively. These are generalised scales, and 

the depiction of the roads is generalised. 

In the large scale maps produced of urban 

areas, say at the scale of 1:1,000, the major features of a road are not generalised 

in the depiction, which differs appreciably 

from the depiction at the medium scales 

even after allowing for the change of 

scale. "With generalisation art enters into 

cartography."

It is also worth noting that using the 

set of digital data appropriate to the 

largest scale to produce the large and 

medium scale maps, say from 1:1,000 to 

1:250,000, by automated cartography will 

not only require the data to cover the 

area, but will also require certain editorial 

corrections to be made on the generalisation of the features, beyond the deletion 

and smoothing of features. As yet, these 

editorial corrections are most economically and effectively done by manual intervention on the proof copy or display 

screen.

Different agencies, offices, and 

firms, public and private, are likely to

become experts at the different map 

scales, and many banks or stores or bases 

of cartographic digital data will be created 

at the medium and at the large scales. As 

with maps, the digital data will have their 

range of uses depending upon their accuracy and resolution. Further data of interest to specialist users of the types you 

mention, both numerical and textual, 

such as geological, cadastral, and jurisdictional, can be added to the digital data 

base and displayed or presented when requested in the required units or areas, provided the digital data base is suitably 

structured, and provided that the data are 

of the appropriate resolution and accuracy. The team responsible for such 

development should consist of members 

of a high professional quality and should 

be well balanced in their combined expertise. The cost-effectiveness of the digital 

data base system will be their major concern. Many digital systems are likely to be 

created working at the same scale or accuracy, and also at other scales or accuracies. The exchange of data between 

such systems is a necessary aim to make 

the maximum and most economical use of 

the data collected. Common standards are 

therefore necessary for the definition of 

cartographic features and for the structure and arrangement of digital data to 

enable the exchange of digital data after 

"translating" by computer-processing into 

an intermediate common standard where 

necessary.

Carl Ternryd: I have quite a long experience in trying to develop the application of digital terrain models to road 

design and road planning. We have discussed how to design such a digital model 

in different layers; one of the layers 

should be the topography, others should 

be the geology, jurisdictions, and so on. 

From the technical and scientific points of 

view there are no problems. You can 

always get in as much as you like in a 

model, but the problem is how to get it 

out again, and how to use it. One must 

keep in mind when designing roads that it 

is not an equation; it is a compromise between different interests; the environment, the economy, the political point of 

view and so on. My recommendation is to 

take it easy if you are going to use it in the 

practical application. And I think that it is 

better to have the basic information first 

and then add more or less manually the 

other information. From a scientific point

of view it is a very interesting approach 

but using it in practice is something else.

Clifton Fry (USGS): I have a general 

question for the panel dealing with occupational definitions. In your country, 

are you satisified with the current occupational definitions? Is there any on-going 

activity to update occupational definitions 

based on advancing technology?

Carl Ternryd: In Sweden, the status 

of the surveyor has always been a little bit 

questionable. It has been regarded more 

as a technician than an engineering profession. Today this is changing, I think 

because in this field the development of 

electronics and so on has come in with extremely high power. Now the status of the 

profession of surveyor is equal to the 

status of the profession of the civil 

engineer.

Willis Roberts (Canada): If we look 

back 25 years or so I would say that 

almost all surveyors in Canada were 

technicians and treated that way by the 

civil engineers and the foresters. We have 

made massive advances in education as 

well as in technology. The turning point 

was the creation of the Survey Engineering Department at the University of New 

Brunswick, under the direction of Dr. 

Konecny. Starting this fall, we now have 

four universities in Canada offering 

graduate and post-graduate courses in 

survey engineering. The graduates have 

been accepted by the professional engineering association in Canada and are 

eligible for registration as professional 

engineers. With that advancement in the 

professional field and the establishment of 

institutes of technology that are training 

technologists and technicians, there has 

been considerable progress in improving 

the professional status and the image of 

surveying and mapping in Canada.

J. M. Zarzycki: I'd like to comment 

on technicians, since most of the comment 

has been about professionals. In terms of 

Civil Service in Canada, we have a somewhat "Balkanized" system of classification. There are many job classifications 

performing surveying and mapping functions. In my organization, persons working as photogrammetric operators, cartographers, draftspersons, editors, and 

map checkers belong to the "drafting" 

category. They are grouped together with 

mechanical, civil or other engineering 

draftspersons. We are taking a new look 

at the job classifications with a view to

Panel Discussion 99
devising a uniform system more suited to 

the surveying and mapping field. The 

need to interchange cartographers and 

photogrammetrists, particularly when 

new digital techniques are applied, makes 

the change in classifications more urgent. 

We have trained many cartographers to be 

photogrammetric operators. We are now 

developing new classification standards at 

the technical level for a topographical 

technician or technologist with different 

levels of competence. These people will be 

required to be proficient in photogrammetry and cartography with some knowledge of computers and field surveys. This 

will give us well-rounded technicians who 

can move from one area to another, as 

necessary. Our staff seem to like this approach because they see more opportunities for advancement and more diversified work.

Gottfried Konecny (Germany): May I

say something from the viewpoint of the 

country that has had actually defined 

survey professions for at least 100 years. 

There now exists a surveying and mapping 

community of professionals in the Federal 

Republic of Germany, of a size of about 

6,000 persons, so there is no question of 

recognition. But despite that relatively accepted standard, I think there are some 

new aspects which are now being considered within these professions. There is 

an increasing concern about landinformation systems and the surveyor 

feels responsible for this field. On the 

other hand, he sees that he does not have 

the possibility of a total access to the information, nor is it established that he 

should actually maintain this information, 

so there is the updating question. The 

surveyor tends to limit his problem to 

cadastral information, but he is pressured 

also from other sides to accept more than 

he perhaps can handle. The same is true 

on the mapping side; there is the open 

question of where remote sensing fits in. 

What role should the mapper and the 

photogrammetrist take within remote sensing? I think he should play in both of 

these. It simply points out that the 

established traditions are becoming wider 

in their scope and that surveyors would 

like to cooperate on a broader basis with 

other professions.

Carl Ternryd: I'd like to make an 

amendment to what I said. I think that 

respect for the surveyor's profession is 

increasing as the requirements from industry development on control measurements and other measurements are increasing. They cannot do without this 

profession. I think that adds a great deal 

of respect to the surveyor profession, so 

we should not only talk about topographic information but also about other 

information and other measurements.

Ernst Spiess: Switzerland is a small 

country. We educate about sixty engineers, thirty technicians, one hundred and 

thirty apprentices and only eight cartographers annually. That gives a general 

background. The development in terms of 

what these people should be able to do is 

apparently the same as in the Federal 

Republic of Germany and in Sweden. 

Especially from the viewpoint of cartography we have seen that our surveyors 

are able to handle the necessities of using 

this modern equipment. There are some 

kinds of application engineers in the field 

who very much like to tackle new problems but when it comes to production they 

try to give it over to the technicians. They 

say all this is now an established technique, you go on and digitize; and they are 

looking for new items to do. I think it is a 

good attitude but it will have some effect 

on the way we will have to educate our 

people and where we will get people.

Alberto Villasana (DETENAL, 

Mexico): As you know, in Mexico we 

don't have much tradition in this field. We 

started ten years ago, which is nothing 

compared with your century of life. But 

we more or less know what salary has to 

be given to a good technician and I think 

we can always find a definition of this job 

that matches that salary.

Rupert Southard: I think it is important to comment on the situation here in 

the United States. There is some confusion, at least on the definition of surveyor 

versus the definition of cartographer and 

where the functions they are now performing may overlap. There are efforts 

being made on the part of the Civil Service 

Commission to come forward with a new 

set of standards for cartographers. These 

standards would at least bring the cartographer series into this century in terms 

of requirements for educational background and experience that one needs to 

function these days. The new requirements include particularly the addition of computer science and mathematical background to the former classical 

cartographer capability which was

perhaps more in the geographic or smallscale-mapping spectrum. But the confusion still exists; it exists right here in this 

agency and we need to do something 

about it. Mr. Fry is chairman of a committee for the American Congress on 

Surveying and Mapping on position classification and statistics. It needs to proceed 

and it needs to dispel the argument between cartographers and surveyors over 

whose work is more important. This must 

be worked out because the work of both 

or either is extremely important to solve 

many problems of this country.

Robert Lyddan (retired, USGS): 

Rupert Southard has outlined for you the 

concern we have had here in this organization and in this country on these terms. I 

attended three United Nations conferences on cartography for Asia and the 

Far East spread over a period of about a 

decade and I noticed that at those 

meetings there was confusion and concern 

as to what the term "cartography" really 

meant. At the last meeting I attended, 

which was in Bangkok, the representative 

of the International Hydrographic Organization insisted that something that was 

being written should read "cartography 

and hydrography." He obviously felt that 

hydrography would otherwise not be sure 

of being included. The geodesists then 

said let us write it "cartography and 

geodesy." This kind of debate and confusion prevailed much of the time, and it 

was suggested near the end of the meeting 

that the United Nations group take 

another look at the term "cartography" 

and redefine it or emphasize more fully 

and clearly what the term really should 

cover. I am not sure that anything is being 

done, although it was agreed at that time 

that thought would be given to it.

My suggestion is that those of you 

who will be attending the next meeting, or 

those of you who are otherwise interested 

in this question, find out what is being 

done by the United Nations staff group in 

this connection. You might have an opportunity to influence what this term "cartography" means and how well and soon it 

will be established not only in this country 

but in others.

Rupert Southard: Some of us have 

just returned from a conference in Mexico, the Second United Nations Cartographic Conference for the Americas, 

where that question is still being debated, 

with no more light being cast on it than

100 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
before. Some brilliant statements of position are being made. At Mexico City last 

month we had Professor Ormeling, president of the International Cartographic 

Association, and he explained to us 

without any doubt remaining what cartographers are and what they are not. The 

United Nations staff under Mr. 

Christopher seemed to hold to a looser 

and less encompassing definition that 

everything that has to do with mapping in 

any way is cartography, and that includes 

ground survey conducted for the purpose 

of making maps. Those conferences include a lot of input on geodesy, as well. It 

may be that it is more important for us to 

understand the differences and what the 

range of those differences may be. The 

study that Dr. Richard Dahlberg is doing 

with the support of ACSM and ASP and 

the Geological Survey on an inventory of 

courses in the mapping sciences will shed 

more light on all of this than any amount 

of conjecture on our part. The people 

who do the kind of work we do are coming from schools of engineering, schools 

of forestry, schools of geology, and particularly these days, they are coming from 

geography curricula again. Mappers by 

the dozens, hundreds even, are coming 

from the geography curricula which are 

being expanded and deepened to take care 

of that requirement. So I think the United 

Nations is not going to help us solve that 

problem; it is going to have to be solved 

here at home.

Lewis Harris: In this relatively small 

profession which has been weakened by 

its tendency to fragment into smaller 

specialisms, the professional in mapmaking should be educated in an exact science 

and then needs to have a basic grounding 

in the specialisms of geodesy, cartography 

including the graphic arts, and photogrammetry to ensure a balanced approach; to adjust to changing technologies; and to satisfy the new demands 

made on the profession. Experiences in 

World War II emphasize the need for the 

broad approach and the overall view, and 

exposed the danger of professional executives being limited in their perspective 

to one of the specialisms.

A distinction should be made between the professional and the technician. 

Nevertheless, the high quality and competence of the technician on production 

work in each of these specialisms should 

be recognised and be fully used to obtain

efficient, economical, and maximum production. But the professional should have 

more than proficiency in techniques. The 

new university courses must guard against 

being limited in this way, for the courses 

would then be more appropriately taught 

in technical colleges. The professional 

takes his place alongside the other professionals in society; should have an understanding of the rightful place of the mapmaking profession in society not only for 

the good of the profession but also for the 

good of society; and have the future of the 

profession in keeping. Beyond being able 

to undertake the current types of work, 

professionals should be prepared to match 

their products with the usages, to augment 

the usages, and to accept future changes 

in requirements, in technology, and in 

conditions. Some professionals may, after 

their first years of experience, concentrate 

on one of the specialisms for which they 

have an aptitude and liking, but the majority of this small profession should remain flexible to meet the needs of 

management, production, and changing 

technologies.

The establishment of a postgraduate 

Institute of Geodetic and Cartographic 

Sciences for advanced and interdisciplinary studies, for research and 

development, for cultivating independent 

and responsible opinion, and for indoctrinating professionals in mid-career in 

new technological ideas and processes, is 

increasingly favored as the pace of 

advancing technology accelerates. A very 

high quality of staff is necessary in such 

an institute, and the concentration of the 

best talent in one suitably located national 

centre is indicated. The choice of title, it 

will be noted, avoids the use of the term 

"survey" which is not sufficiently specific 

and cannot be readily translated into 

other languages without some qualification. "Cartographic Sciences" would suffice if the broad definition of cartography 

is used Ptolemy's Geographer. As this 

definition is not generally adopted at present in North America, the title has been 

expanded to Geodetic and Cartographic 

Sciences. "Cartographic and Geodetic 

Sciences" would be equally acceptable.

H.J. Vojacek: As a past president of 

the Australian Institute of Cartographers 

may I just add the views of the Australian. 

In Australia we do have cartographers and 

we do have surveyors and we do have 

photogrammetrists and at the moment the

position is that if you are a photogrammetrist you can also be a cartographer. If 

you are a surveyor you can also be a cartographer. But if you are a cartographer 

you cannot be a surveyor or a photogrammetrist. And all the cartographers feel 

that this is somewhat not fair. So, at all 

meetings or federal council meetings of 

the Australian Institute of Cartographers 

we always have as an agenda item: "Cartography, what is cartography?" We also 

had a visit by Professor Ormeling and he 

enlightened us on what is cartography and 

what is not cartography. That was all very 

nice but when he left you know nobody 

believed it. As he said, "I will set this all 

right in Europe and in Australia not 

everything is upside down." So we do it 

differently anyway. At the moment we do 

have the same problems. They are trying 

to define cartography and what is a cartographer although we know what a 

photogrammetrist is or a surveyor. There 

are moves afoot to establish an institute 

that is all-embracing which we might call a 

mapping institute but I am sure we are a 

long way off. In the meantime we don't 

really know what a cartographer is, 

although we have an Institute of Cartographers.

Ted Albert (USGS): I wonder if the 

panel knows of any research being done in 

structuring of cartographic or spatial 

data, the data that we are talking about 

digitizing? I mean logically structuring 

them in a computer file. We have a 

tendency to take this kind of data and list 

it sequentially or put a meaningful 

number before it and that is all. Is 

anybody looking at new and perhaps 

esoteric or mathematical approaches to 

restructuring this kind of data so that it 

can be better related to other kinds of 

data: geologic, hydrologic, and so on? In 

addition, is there any pertinent research 

that anybody really is enthusiastic about 

in the area of mass storage?

J.M. Zarzycki: Substantial research 

is being undertaken in this very difficult 

field. I could provide the names of individuals involved in this research.

Gottfried Konecny: There is presently an effort going on in the Federal 

Republic of Germany to put the entire 

cadastre, not only the information on the 

owners, parcels, and rights, but also the 

boundaries, onto a computer system. It 

goes into the millions of parcels that need 

to be recorded. The software for this is in

Panel Discussion 101
the design stage and one expects within a 

number of years, 3 or 4, to have test software available to handle this sort of thing. 

I can not give you detailed information, 

but this committee has regular publications in Germany where such questions 

are addressed.

Ernst Spiess: Again I might illuminate the situation a little bit from 

Switzerland, a small country where land 

surveyors are distributed in about 250 

private offices. You can imagine that, 

having evolved in such a decentralized 

way, this system somehow interferes now 

with the necessity of centralizing data. In 

our university there is some research on 

what you can do on a small landinformation system which will suit such a 

local survey. Apparently there are some 

possibilities but the big problems of 

course are: by what national organization 

you could back up such a small system; 

how you get your information from one 

body to the other; and how to update continuously. This goes under the general 

term of land-information system and 

there is quite a lot of current literature on 

this subject.

Carl Ternryd: In Sweden there is a lot 

of effort going on to try to provide a data 

bank concerning real estate parcels with 

different kinds of information overlaid 

upon each other. According to my experience concerning data banks, this is the

most effective way of wasting money if 

you do not know what you are doing, if 

you are not careful, and if you are not 

conservative when building it up. So our 

experience in Sweden is very good but expensive.

Willis Roberts: I was in Sweden 

about 3 or 4 years ago with Carl and a few 

others looking at their data bank information and our own. The European cadastres have been established for a hundred 

years as mechanical file systems and what 

they are trying to do is automate them in a 

digital form. We are looking at it totally 

differently in North America in that we do 

not have a cadastre. We have no ownership maps or plans like theirs. Our assessment records, which are about 40 percent 

accurate, are about the best we have in a 

lot of places in North America. Fifty to 

sixty percent of North America does not 

even have that. So we have an opportunity 

here; we can grasp it and this is what they 

are trying to do at Guelph University.

The idea is to set up a system that can 

be efficient and to this end I have been 

hammering at the cartographers quite a 

bit. We have got to cut across their structure of filing and their digital mapping. It 

is not worth anything to be able to call out 

map sheet so and so and all the contours 

on it, or print one contour of unknown 

location. What we want to operate with is 

in a unit basis: parcel base or even a

breakdown of the parcel in the units of 

use. We do not want their structured file 

of going through it and then putting four 

models all together into one map sheet or 

grouping it some way with a code number 

and a menu. We have got to break that 

structured file so we can pick out what we 

want on a unit basis and that is a most difficult problem. We have been playing with 

it now for 3 years and we have all the 

cadastres on a unit basis. But to relate that 

to a topographic map and to geology and 

hydrology and climatology and the other 

basic seven factors that becomes a different issue.

Carl Ternryd: I would like to make a 

little amendment to what I said. In my job 

I get questions about the building up of 

the data bank system and so on and I 

always tell them the following: "It is very 

easy to build up the structure to get the information in but that is not the interest. 

The interest is how to get the data out 

again, how to use them. That is the most 

important thing: before starting to get 

them in, you must know how to get them 

out."

Rupert Southard: I think that is a 

good place to stop. We must know how to 

get them out. I want to thank the panel 

very much on behalf of the Geological 

Survey for the superb contribution you 

have made to the celebration of our 

centennial.

Coal-laden barges on the Monongahela River in southern Pennsylvania, bound for a generating station shown in the background emitting steam. Photograph courtesy of Conoco, Inc.

102 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Challenges and Problems 

Concerning Energy Resources
Sufficient Energy Raw Materials for Everyone?

F. Bender

President, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Federal Republic of Germany

UNDISPUTED FACTS

It is commonplace knowledge that the availability of 

mineral resources is of great importance to the economy of 

a nation and that the resources themselves are finite and 

not regenerable. It is evidently quite normal human 

behaviour that such commonplace knowledge is realized 

by the public and by those responsible in the state as well as 

in trade and industry only when it is already too late or 

almost too late for the necessary measures.

However that may be, everybody talks meanwhile 

about energy raw materials, and that is little wonder. Efforts to secure supplies of energy raw materials have never 

before reached the present dimension. This is due to four 

undisputed facts:

1. the increase in price of petroleum, natural gas, 

and uranium;

2. the uneven regional distribution of energy raw 

materials;

3. the political and economic opportunities benefitting countries that have energy raw materials;

4. the political and economic risks to the countries 

dependent on the import of energy raw materials.

For many raw materials, "supply and demand" has 

largely lost its function as a price-regulating mechanism. 

The spread and growth of cartels and oligopolies and a 

worldwide trend to nationalization of the raw materials industry are clear indications of this evolution. This may be 

deplored or welcomed according to one's point of view, 

but to overlook these facts of life and not take them into 

consideration could become costly.

CONTROVERSIAL FINDINGS

So far, we have dealt with commonplace facts. Let us 

now turn to some very controversial views about global 

reserves and supplies of natural resources. According to 

"Limits of Growth" (Club of Rome, 1972), "With the present rate of growth in consumption most of the currently 

important and non-renewable natural resources will be extremely expensive in a hundred years, even with optimistic 

assumptions about deposits to be discovered, technical 

progress, recycling, and the use of suitable substitutes." 

This and similar subsequent studies not only provoked 

overdue reflections by the public about the finite character 

of mineral resources but also summoned up prophets 

foretelling the impending end of the industrialized countries, which would result from the presumably foreseeable 

exhaustion of important natural resources. Alarmingly 

short "life-times" were calculated for numerous raw 

materials and a "doomsday syndrome" spread among 

consumers.

It is obvious that these considerations have not taken 

properly into account either the knowledge of the geologist 

or his ignorance, as the case may be, of the actual natural 

resources potential of the Earth. No one has yet been able 

to even approximately quantify global resources, except 

perhaps the potential of recoverable oil. There, due to intensive and enormously expensive efforts, we do have an 

approximate conception, possibly correct within 

plus/minus 400 billion tee (metric tons of coal equivalent 

based on 7,000 kcal/kg). However, no one has any idea 

about the potential of metallic and nonmetallic resources; 

and with respect to the potential of solid and nuclear fuels, 

there are only vague conceptions. The reason for this deficiency is the fact that the Earth's crust has been explored 

only surficially so far, and even this superficially. If one 

were to compile a geological map for a depth of only 300 

meters below the surface, on a global basis many millions 

of square kilometers would remain blank, because the 

geological situation at this depth is largely unknown. There 

are, however, no compelling geological reasons why the 

reserves potential of mineral ores and also of nuclear 

energy resources would not be increased by exploration at 

depths of 300 meters below the surface, using presently 

available or yet to be developed methods. There are also no 

reasons why those reserves would not be increased considerably by exploration down to 600 meters, perhaps by a 

factor of three in comparison to the presently known 

potential.

In view of these considerations, the "doomsday syndrome" is not quite understandable. In addition, 

pessimistic observers of the natural resources supply situation are inclined to overlook the fact that 30 years ago, the 

same as today, the demonstrated commercially recoverable 

reserves corresponded in each case to 20 to 200 times the 

annual production. In other words, in spite of a considerable increase in production it has always been possible 

to discover and develop sufficient new reserves to maintain 

the same proportion. There are also no geological reasons 

for the assumption that this will change basically in the 

next 30 years except for hydrocarbons whose "static lifetime" will in all probability only diminish in the future.

104 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
THE ENERGY RAW MATERIALS RESOURCES 

OF TODAY

So far we have regarded the global raw materials 

resources situation which was controversial, is controversial, and will so remain until geologists succeed in precisely 

quantifying the raw materials resources of the Earth. This 

will probably take another 100 years or more and will certainly keep several generations of geoscientists fully 

occupied.

I would like to attempt to give a general account of the 

present state of knowledge on energy resources. Of course 

I am quite aware of the fact that the quoted figures may be 

suspect. They can only be based on the evaluation of information and data currently available.

A great deal of misunderstanding on the resources 

situation is due to the existence of different classification 

criteria. What one author classifies as "proven", 

"economic" or "hypothetic" is not necessarily the same for 

the other. The classification system commonly used by the

U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines is 

called the McKelvey Box. In this well-known system, the 

large box represents the resources, and within this box a 

much smaller one represents the reserves, or that part of 

the resources which is demonstrated and recoverable according to current economic conditions. For global 

assessments, this classification system involves some difficulties since economic conditions vary considerably from 

one country to the other. Nevertheless, based on information collected for the 1980 World Energy Conference 

(WEC) in Munich, we estimate the total world fossil 

energy resources at about 12,000 billion tons of coal 

equivalent, of which some 930 billion tons of coal 

equivalent are currently classed as reserves (fig. 1). This is 

less than 10 percent of the resources! The present annual 

world primary energy consumption is around 10 billion 

tons of coal equivalent. Provided there is no increase in 

consumption and no standstill in exploration and technology, these identified fossil fuel reserves alone could 

satisfy demand for almost a century.

IDENTIFIED

Proved Probable

UNDISCOVERED

Possible HYPOTHETICAL 

(in known districts)

SPECULATIVE 

(in undiscovered districts)

-U-R-C-E-S

<\\\\\\\\\\\\

12.000^

Degree of geological certainty

Figure 1 Estimates of world fossil energy resources. [Of the terms identifying economic reserves, "proved" equals "measured," "probable" equals "indicated," and "possible" equals "inferred." The direction of the arrow at the bottom left indicates increasing degree of 

geologic certainty; quantities are reckoned according to the USGS/USBM classification system in billions of tons of coal equivalent 

(109 tee).]

Sufficient Energy Raw Materials 105
Distribution of Fossil Fuels as Resources and Reserves

The resources and reserves are distributed among the 

different fossil fuels according to our Institute calculations, as illustrated in figure 2 and compared in table 1. 

The dominant role of coal is demonstrated by the fact that 

it makes up about 85 percent of the world's fossil fuel 

resources and about 68 percent of the reserves. The 

planned economies or East bloc countries, including the 

People's Republic of China, have the biggest share of fossil 

energy resources. They are followed by the market 

economies (the industrialized countries of the Western 

World), with the developing countries, such as Brazil, 

Iran, and Mexico, in third place. Their regional distribution is compared in table 2 and illustrated in figure 3.

Nuclear fuels are classified in market economies and in 

most developing countries according to production costs. 

Together these countries have about 4.3 million tons of 

uranium recoverable up to a price of $130/kg U. We estimate that the planned economies have reserves in the same 

category of about 2 million tons, which is naturally a

Table 1 Global resources and reserves of fossil fuels as 

estimated for the 1980 World Energy Conference (from 

WEC study)

Table 2 Regional distribution of fossil fuels

RESOURCES

Coal

Oil/natural gas

Oil shale/tar sand _

Estimated totals __

10' tee

10,125 

647 

'1,080

11,852

Percent

85

6 

9

100

RESERVES

10« tee

636 

214 

2 84

934

Percent

88 

23 

9

100

Oil shale with an oil content of more than 40 liters per ton of rock. 

'• Economic recoverability still in question.

RESOURCES RESERVES

Planned economies ____ 

Market economies ____ 

Developing countries _

Total

10' tee

6,790 

4,190

872

11,852

Percent

57 

35 

8

100

109 tee

316 

400 

218

934

Percent

34 

43 

23

100

rough guess. This amounts to a total of 6.3 million tons of 

world uranium reserves. These reserves represent an energy 

equivalent of about 100 billion tons of coal equivalent 

when used in today's reactors, which only use about 1 percent of the theoretical energy content. It is estimated that 

in this category of nuclear fuels about one to two times this 

amount can still be found. In addition there are large 

quantities of low-grade ores with less than 0.1 percent 

uranium. Thorium reserves amount to approximately 4 

million tons at present.

Let us next take a look at individual fossil energy 

sources, beginning with coal, which is by far the largest 

reservoir of fossil fuel.

Coal: Bituminous coal and subbituminous coal, including lignite, together rank as the most abundant fossil 

fuel, and the distribution of the deposits is rather well 

known. Prospective areas can be defined quite well. This is 

demonstrated by the fact that estimations of coal resources 

have not varied very much over the last decades. Entirely 

unknown major coal deposits can hardly be expected.

Coal estimating is characterized by a huge difference 

between figures for resources and those for reserves (fig. 

4). Total coal resources, according to World Energy ConOIL*

NATURAL 

GAS

TAR SAND/ 

OIL SHALE

84i RESERVES

Figure 2 World distribution of fossil energy resources and reserves. (Fuel quantities are estimated in billions of tons of coal 

equivalent.)

106 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
EXPLANATION 

X!0 9 tce = RESOURCES x 10 9 tee- RESERVES

Figure 3 Regional distribution of fossil energy fuels. (Both resources and reserves are estimated in billions of tons of coal equivalent.)

Total: 10,125

640 ^/recoverable reserves,/'

hypothetical

7065

identified 

3060

Figure 4 World coal resources and reserves. (Quantities are 

estimated in billions of tons of coal equivalent.)

ference data, are believed to represent about 10,125 billion 

tons of coal equivalent, of which 1,900 billion tons of coal 

equivalent are subbituminous coal, including lignite. 

Mobil Oil Company (1979) has estimated resources at 

10,000 billion tons of coal equivalent, while the estimate of

11,716 billion tons of coal equivalent by the International 

Institute for Applied Systems Analysis is somewhat higher 

than the WEC value.

About one-third, or 3,060 billion tons of coal 

equivalent, of this 10,125 billion (the WEC tee total) is 

identified resources, meaning specific bodies explored by 

drilling and mine measurements. The remaining two-thirds 

of the resources are hypothetical, to be confirmed by exploration. Of the identified resources, again only about 

one-third or 1,130 billion tons of coal equivalent form the 

present reserve-base for mining. Taking into account the 

inevitable losses in mining, about 640 billion tons of coal 

equivalent are presently classed as recoverable reserves. 

Around 95 percent of coal resources are concentrated in 

ten countries. Reserves, however, are more widely 

distributed.

In 1977 world coal production was 2,988 million tons 

of coal equivalent, of which 2,538 million tons of coal 

equivalent was bituminous coal and 450 million tons of 

coal equivalent was subbituminous coal (fig. 5). Over the 

last ten years, the average annual increase in coal production has been 1.2 percent. With this annual increase factored in, present production could be continued for almost 

100 years with the present reserves in the case of 

bituminous coal alone and for around 130 years with subbituminous coal.

Oil: While not the most abundant fossil fuel, oil is for 

many countries by far the most important energy base. In 

most industrialized countries it constitutes more than 50

Sufficient Energy Raw Materials 107
10 9 tce

7n 

6- 

5-

4- 

3-

2 " 1.53

1 -I

Cumulative Production 

1860-1977: 136 X 1Q 9 tC6

5.65

3.80

2.99

2.30 _

1950 1960 1970 1977 1985 2000

Figure 5 World coal production from 1950 to 2000. (After 1977, figures represent estimates by Bergbauforschung GmbH.; 

quantities are calculated in billions of tons of coal equivalent.)

109 t 3.06

160 n

140-

120-

100-

80-

60-

40-

20-

ANNUAL PRODUCTION

0.52

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1978

OIL RESERVES AND CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION

EXPLANATION

CUMULATIVE PRODUCTION 

RESERVES

40.1

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1978 

Figure 6 World oil reserves and annual and cumulative production from 1950 to 1978. (Quantities are 

calculated in billions of tons of coal equivalent.)

108 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
percent of the energy supply, and many other countries 

rely on it almost entirely. Several recent studies indicate 

that supply might fall short of demand in the 1980s, if the 

present rise in consumption continues. These include: 

"Energy Prospects to 1985" (Organization for Economic 

Cooperation and Development), "Energy-Global Prospects 1985 to 2000" (Workshop for Alternative Energy 

Strategies), and reports by Exxon, Caltex, Shell, Mobil, 

and the CIA, as well as the study "World Energy Resources 

1985 to 2020" made by the Conservation Commission for 

the 1980 World Energy Conference. This shortfall is supposed to occur even if all the OPEC countries produce at 

full capacity; they do not, as we all had the opportunity to 

learn at the beginning of 1979.

Estimation of the total amount of recoverable oil in 

the world has been attempted by many different authors. 

Older evaluations have proved to be far too low. For example, in 1920 the entire recoverable oil resources of the 

Earth were estimated at 5.9 billion tons. Meanwhile, actual 

cumulative oil production is almost 55 billion tons and 

another 90 billion tons of proven reserves have been 

demonstrated (fig. 6).

The majority of estimates during the last 15 years lie 

between 200 and 300 billion tons of recoverable oil, with 

some evaluations approaching 500 billion tons. Several

estimation methods have been used, including the amount 

of oil per volume of prospective basins, statistical probability, and basin analysis worldwide.

We estimate the total recoverable oil resources at 260 

billion tons, based on a recovery factor of 40 percent or 

650 billion tons of oil in place (Exxon and Shell estimate 

about 570 billion tons). Of this amount, about 90 billion 

tons are currently classed as proven reserves. These figures 

can be considered to be realistic in their order of magnitude because of the intensive petroleum exploration of 

the last few decades, which has significantly improved 

knowledge about prospective basins of the world and has 

allowed recognition of regularities in the regional distribution of petroleum fields. One important uncertainty remains: the possible prospectivity of the continental 

margins. The regional distribution of petroleum deposits is 

much more uneven than for coal. The Middle East with 

around 55 percent of proven reserves and around 35 percent of total recoverable resources is an unmatched 

phenomenon, a fact that understandably has a negative influence on worldwide availability (fig. 7).

World oil production was 3.048 billion tons in 1977; it 

increased only slightly to 3.055 billion tons in 1978. 

Theoretically, this level could be maintained with proven 

reserves for just over 30 years and with production of total

EXPLANATION 

RESOURCES | RESERVES

Estimated Resources: Proven Reserves:

650x109 t oil in place 90x109 t 

(recoverable 260 x 109 t)

Figure 7 Regional distribution of world oil resources and reserves. (Quantities are calculated in billions of tons of coal equivalent.)

Sufficient Energy Raw Materials 109
recoverable resources could be maintained for almost 100 

years. If an annual production increase of 4 percent is 

assumed, these periods are reduced to around 20 to 40 

years, respectively. Reserves in the last several decades 

have usually been equivalent to about thirty years of production. In spite of large production increases, additional 

new reserves were found to maintain this ratio. In 1976, 

the discovery rate of about 2 billion tons was lower than 

the year's production for the first time. New discoveries 

and especially higher evaluation of reserves in some existing fields, notably in Saudi Arabia, were responsible for 

the fact that in 1977 the reserve additions were bigger than 

the loss through production. This trend has continued, 

especially due to the finds in Mexico. According to Exxon 

(1979), new finds of more than 4 billion tons in 1978 more 

than made up for a production of 3.056 billion tons.

Natural gas: The use of gas in significant quantities 

began much later than that of oil and is restricted to fewer 

countries. Although consumption is expanding rapidly, 

considerable amounts of associated gas are still flared at 

some producing oil wells.

We estimate the total recoverable natural gas resources, including associated gas, at about 227 trillion 

cubic meters. Of this amount, 65 trillion m3 are classed as 

reserves and 162 trillion m3 are at present undiscovered 

resources. Ruhrgas (1978) and Mobil (1979) place gas

resources somewhat higher (230 and 300 trillion m3 , 

respectively) than the WEC value that we have used. The 

1979 figures of Shell and Exxon reserves are also higher 

(73.5 and 71.2 trillion m3 , respectively).

The regional distribution of natural gas resources is 

more even than in the case of oil; the planned economies 

play a leading role with 38 percent of the reserves and 32 

percent of total recoverable resources (fig. 8).

Excluding flared and reinjected gas, net world production of natural gas in 1978 was about 1.435 trillion cubic 

meters. This means a static lifetime of around 50 years for 

the reserves and about 160 years for the total recoverable 

resources. If annual production increases of 4 percent are 

assumed, these life-spans will be reduced to around 30 and 

50 years, respectively.

Oil shales and tar sands: Oil shales and tar sands represent huge hydrocarbon resources and have received increased attention, but despite technological and economic 

efforts, development is proceeding slower than originally 

planned and they are at present still of little importance as 

an energy source.

Recoverable oil in oil shale resources is estimated at 

450 billion tons if only shales with more than 40 liters of oil 

per ton of rock are considered. Of this amount, 60 billion 

tons of oil are currently rated as "economically recoverable

rvh ^. _ V t

' <&, Far East

EXPLANATION 

RESOURCES B RESERVES

Estimated Resources: 

227 x 10 12 m 3

Proven Reserves:

65 x 10 12 m 3

Figure 8 Regional distribution of world natural gas resources and reserves. (Quantities are calculated in trillions of cubic meters.) 

110 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
OIL SHALE

at a crude oil price of approx. $ 25 /bbl

economically recoverable TAR SAND

at a crude oil price of approx. $ 25 bbl 

economically recoverable

iium t

60

295

Annual Production: 

—40 million tons

Annual Production 

~ 10 million tons

Figure 9 Estimates of world oil shale and tar sand resources. (Only shales containing more than 40 liters of oil per ton of rock are included in these figures; quantities are calculated in billions of tons of oil.)

resources" and could probably be transformed into reserves when the crude oil price reaches about $25 per barrel. The total oil resources in tar sands are estimated at 

about 295 billion tons, of which 29 billion tons are classed 

as reserves (fig. 9).

Shale oil production of some importance took place in 

1976 in the Soviet Union and in China: the combined production is believed to be about 40 million tons of oil per 

year. Tar sands production in Canada reached about 9.5 

million tons in 1978, mainly because of the increased production in the new Syncrude mine.

Nuclear fuels: Ten years ago, the energy planners saw 

nuclear energy as the way out of the difficulties in the 

energy supply. Rational calculations supported this assumption. The last few years have shown, however, that 

the irrational aspect of human behaviour must be included 

in such considerations.

The market economy countries plus developing countries have about 3.16 million metric tons "reasonably 

assured" uranium resources, plus "estimated additional 

reserves," recoverable at a price up to $80 per kilogram of 

uranium ( = $30/lb U3 O8 ). An additional 1.5 million tons 

is available in the range from $80 to $130 per kilogram of 

uranium ( = $30-$50/lb U3O8 ), a total of 4.3 million tons. 

We estimate the reserves of the planned economies in this 

category at 2 million tons, giving a total of 6.3 million tons

of world reserves, which is equal to around 100 billion tons 

of coal equivalent, if used in today's reactors (fig. 10).

Hypothetical uranium resources recoverable at a price 

up to $130 per kilogram of uranium are thought to be in 

the range of 7 to 15 million tons. The basis for this is 

"World Uranium Potential," an international evaluation 

of prospective, but little explored, areas (International 

Uranium Resources Evaluation Project, Paris, 1978). In 

addition, the so-called low-grade ores (phosphorites, euxinic shales, and certain granites with contents of 50 to 300 

parts per million) are believed to contain between 40 and 

50 million tons. The oceans with an average of 3 parts per 

billion are estimated to contain 4,500 million tons of 

uranium. Known thorium resources, which could partly 

replace uranium in a high-temperature reactor, are estimated at about 4 million tons.

In 1978, uranium production in the market economy 

countries and developing countries was approximately 

33,000 metric tons (fig. 11). Their current production 

capacity is around 45,000 metric tons per year. Should the 

planned global expansion of the utilization of nuclear 

energy be realized which at the moment seems questionable all known uranium reserves today would be used 

up by the year 2000. Consequently, uranium exploration 

has been intensified in order to find and develop new 

resources.

Sufficient Energy Raw Materials 111
13.3-21.3 Miot / \ .

(recoverable up to $ 1307 kg U )

proven reserves^

6.3 Miot hypothetical II 7-15 Miot

planned 2

economies ' ^

market

economies ^

. HUH K/i 

developing ,,

countries

•I'.0

llfllllltl

iot

.3iiiiiiiiiii 

o t

market economies + 

developing countries

- production 1978 : 33,0001

-cum.- until 1978: 533,0001

URANIUM 

metr. t

30,000 -

20,000 -

10,000 -

1950

; ; LOW GRADE ORESf

( Shales, Granites, Phosphates)

4^40-50'Miot

Oceans: 4500 X 10 9 t

Figure 10 Estimates of world uranium resources. (Quantities 

are given in millions of metric tons.)

4 Figure 11 Uranium production 1950 to 1978 for the market 

economies and developing countries. (Quantities are given in 

metric tons.)

Geothermal energy: Since the availability of energy 

resources is limited for geological and other reasons, the 

big hunt for the so-called alternative energy sources also 

intensified with the oil price escalation. Solar-, wind-, tideand geothermal energy receive much attention. Only 

geothermal energy will be touched on here. It represents an 

almost unlimited energy potential, but its present utilization is still only of minor importance. The installed 

geothermal electricity capacity amounts to 1,500 megawatts in 20 power plants, the nonelectrical utilization 

amounts to about 6,500 megawatts (fig. 12). At present, 

the utilization of geothermal energy is limited to volcanic 

or tectonically active zones with natural occurrences of hot 

water or steam.

The so-called "hot dry rock technology," being 

developed mainly at Los Alamos in the United States, 

opens new perspectives for the future use of geothermal 

energy. The idea is to create a fracture system in deep112 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
1978

1500 MW (electric; 20 power plants) 

6500 " (non electric, mainly heating) 

8000 MW

2000

Figure 12 Geothermal energy figure for 1978 and projections for 2000. [Quantities are given in megawatts (MW).]

seated rocks where temperatures exceed 150° C. Water is 

pumped into this fracture zone through one well and 

is taken out through a second well after it has been 

heated. Tests so far have been promising. The advantage 

of exploiting hot dry rock is mainly that many more prospective areas are available, and therefore, geothermal 

plants could be constructed closer to places where such 

energy is consumed.

DIFFICULT FORECASTS

Forecasts on the possible proportions of the future 

energy supply contributed by the individual energy sources 

can be made from the figures given above. Since all such 

forecasts have proven to be incorrect after ten years at the 

latest, usually within two years, I wish to quote an old

Chinese proverb for you: "To prophesy is extremely difficult, especially with respect to the future." So I want to 

venture from our present situation only as far as the beginning of the 21st Century, although this symposium is called 

"Resources for the 21st Century." In the last twenty years 

of the 20th Century there will already be enough difficulties providing for the supply of energy.

After taking into account the total of global energy 

resources and assessing that part of these resources which 

are convertible into reserves in the foreseeable future, the 

following can be projected for the period up to 1985:

1. Oil production may perhaps still rise to a certain 

extent, maybe up to 3.5 billion tons per year but 

its relative share of energy consumption will 

definitely decrease;

Sufficient Energy Raw Materials 113
2. the absolute, as well as the relative, contribution 

of natural gas to the energy supply can increase;

3. the favorable resources situation for coal permits 

its extensive utilization;

4. the reserve situation for uranium allows an increasing use of nuclear energy;

5. the contribution of oil shales and tar sands as well 

as of geothermal energy sources will remain 

limited.

Projections for world energy supply in the period from 

1985 to 2000:

1. Production of oil, possibly also of natural gas, 

will have peaked;

2. coal, together with nuclear fuels, must provide the 

main share of the increase in energy consumption; 

there will be new ways of using coal, for example, 

by gasification in combination with hightemperature reactors;

3. hydrocarbons from oil shales and tar sands will 

become available on a larger scale;

4. there will be a rising contribution of alternative

energy sources, such as geothermal energy; 

Projections for world energy supply in the period 

beyond the year 2000:

1. Production of oil and gas and their importance as 

energy sources will rapidly decline further, but not 

their use as raw material for the petrochemical industry;

2. production of oil from oil shale and tar sands 

resources will now be mobilized on a large scale;

3. coal and nuclear energy will now satisfy the largest 

share of the demand. New reactor types with 

greater efficiency such as the fast breeder and the 

high-temperature reactor will allow the use of lowgrade ores;

4. alternative energy sources will supply a substantial 

part of the demand.

It is clear that all fossil and nuclear fuels will be needed 

in order to avoid supply crises in the decades ahead, on the 

assumption that the energy demand will rise further and 

that the estimations of the resources situation are correct. 

Even so, all possibilities for using alternative energy 

sources, such as geothermal, must be developed rapidly 

because of the fast rising costs for exploration and exploitation of conventional resources.

SOLVABLE PROBLEMS

Our quantitative assessment of world energy resources 

on the basis of the present state of geoscience knowledge 

may be correct to within plus/minus 30 percent. Within 2, 

5, or 50 years, we will know those quantities better. But 

with the present state of knowledge one statement can 

already be made now: energy raw materials are not becoming scarcer because their physical existence in the

Earth's crust will come to an end within a few decades. The 

same is true for oil, although only if it is also recovered 

from oil shales and tar sands. After all, assuming an increase in demand of 4 percent, the demonstrated 

recoverable crude oil reserves will suffice for about 

another 20 years, and if one includes the inferred quantities, even for about 40 years. Taking the same increase in 

demand as a basis, the hydrocarbons contained in the 

presently known oil shales and tar sands may extend this 

lifetime considerably. Assuming a growth rate of 4 percent, presently known coal reserves will suffice for another 

57 years, and the presently demonstrated uranium reserves 

(current price: $130/kg U) will suffice for another 

50 years. Geothermal energy reserves are practically 

inexhaustable.

Nature has not yet confronted mankind with a 

foreseeable time limit for the physical existence of energy 

resources. Consequently, the problems of the supply of 

energy resources for everyone are theoretically solvable. 

Whether this is also true practically depends on all of us in 

the world. Whether rational and cooperative or emotional 

and egoistic behaviour will prevail among nations is a 

question whose answer will indisputably have a decisive influence on the future of mankind.

SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS

Logically, the further development of the lifetime of 

energy resources this is, the identification of further 

resources and the conversion of resources into 

reserves has become a task of supreme importance for all 

of us, especially for geoscientists.

The end of mankind is certainly not imminent because 

of the end of the physical existence of the energy resources 

as foretold by the "doomsday" prophets. Nobody has yet 

succeeded in definitely quantifying energy resources. This 

precision is still many years away. However, efforts to explore the Earth's crust should be considerably increased so 

as to know in more detail the raw materials, including 

energy resources, that are contained in it, and to improve 

their exploitation. Only facts can be used to curb the 

rapidly spreading and politically more and more dangerous 

hysteria about energy resources facts that are substantiated by geoscientific findings and not by more or less 

disputable analyses and forecasts. Only then can the question "Sufficient raw materials for everybody?" be 

answered definitely and positively.

F. Bender

President

Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources

Postfach 510153

Stilleweg 2

D-3000 Hannover 51, F. R. Germany

114 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
An International View of Nuclear Raw Materials 

(Uranium)

J. Cameron1

International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria

In response to the assigned topic, "An International 

View of Nuclear Raw Materials," one should obviously 

begin by defining from exactly where that view is taken. In 

this case, the viewpoint is from within the Secretariat of 

the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the 

subject is restricted to uranium.

The concept of the IAEA was inspired by President 

Eisenhower's significant speech to the United Nations 

General Assembly on 8th December 1953, the significant 

quotation being: "I therefore make the following proposals. The governments principally involved, to the extent 

permitted by elementary prudence, should begin now and 

continue to make joint contributions from their stockpiles 

of normal uranium and fissionable materials to an international atomic energy agency. We would expect that such an 

agency would be set up under the aegis of the United Nations." Subsequently, the International Atomic Energy 

Agency came into being on 29 July 1957.

The IAEA is an autonomous member of the United 

Nations family of organizations with its own programme 

approved by a Board of Governors and its own budget 

financed by contributions from 110 Member States. Its 

main objectives are to "seek to accelerate and enlarge the 

contributions of atomic energy to peace, health and prosperity throughout the world * * * and to provide 

assistance to Member States * * * that is not used to further any military purpose." With headquarters in Vienna, 

Austria, it has a total staff of about 1,500 persons and its 

annual budget is currently about 76 million dollars.

The IAEA, from its relative youth of 22 years, therefore greets and offers its respects and good wishes to the 

United States Geological Survey on this, the occasion of its 

100th anniversary celebration. The opportunity is also 

taken for noting some of the interests which the two 

organizations have in common: for example, the development of nuclear techniques in mineral exploration, the use 

of isotopes in hydrological surveys, the use of satellite 

imagery in geological data, and bilateral and international 

technical assistance to developing countries in relevant 

geological subjects. However, the strongest common interest is perhaps in nuclear raw materials, the subject of 

this paper, and primarily in uranium in the context of national and international requirements, especially for the 

21st Century.

1 Deceased April 2, 1980.

PART I: SOURCES OF INFORMATION ON 

NUCLEAR RAW MATERIALS

IAEA Activities Concerning Uranium

Among the many concerns of IAEA are world 

uranium resource estimates and all matters relating to the 

geology, exploration, development, and production of 

uranium in all its Member States. It also administers 

technical assistance aid programmes that assist developing 

countries in any of these matters.

The IAEA staff group dealing with uranium subjects 

is small, being only part of a Section in one of the Divisions of the Department of Technical Operations, itself 

one of five Departments in the Agency. The work of the 

uranium group follows two main channels, (a) General 

Divisional Programmes and (b) Technical Assistance.

The general divisional programmes are mainly fulfilled in the encouragement of information interchange by 

organizing scientific meetings and by publishing their proceedings for the benefit of all Member States. A list of the 

proceedings of meetings and technical reports published by 

the uranium group in the last ten years is given in Annex I. 

(See the appendix to this chapter.)

In addition to the meetings and publications arranged 

within IAEA's general divisional programme, much of the 

information gathered and disseminated is done through 

cooperation with other organizations, most notably the 

Nuclear Energy Agency of the Organization for Economic 

Cooperation and Development (OECD). With headquarters in Paris, France, the NBA has only 22 Member States, 

all of them industrial countries. Thus, mainly through 

cooperation with IAEA, the Nuclear Energy Agency 

(NBA) obtains access without difficulty to information 

from many of the important uranium countries in the 

world.

There are, at present, four permanent joint 

NBA/IAEA committees on uranium subjects:

1. Working Party on Uranium Resources, Production and Demand.

2. Steering Group on Uranium Resources.

3. Group of Experts on Research and Development 

in Uranium Exploration Techniques.

4. Working Group on Uranium Extraction.

Nuclear Raw Materials 115
In addition, a Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements is supported by IAEA's Economic Section in 

the Division of Nuclear Power and Reactors and not by the 

uranium group, because it is mainly concerned with reactor strategies, nuclear fuel inventories, and the like, rather 

than with resource estimates, exploration, or extraction.

All these groups are staffed by experts nominated by 

their own Governments which are Member States of one or 

both of the two Agencies.

Other fruitful international cooperation takes place 

with the United Nations Development Programme 

(UNDP), the United Nations Centre for Natural 

Resources, Energy and Transport (CNRET), International 

Institute of Advanced Systems Analysis (IIASA), Commission of the European Communities (CEC), The Uranium 

Institute, International Geological Correlation Programme (IGCP), and on a direct basis with uranium 

organizations in Member States such as the Department of 

Energy and the Geological Survey in the United States.

Uranium Resources, Production and Demand Reports

Since 1965 the NEA and the IAEA have been responsible for publishing the so-called "Red Book" reports that 

are entitled "Uranium Resources, Production and Demand," roughly at two-year intervals (OECD, Paris). 

These reports are generally accepted as the most 

authoritative statements presently existing on these subjects in the World Outside Centrally Planned Economies 

Area (WOCA).

At the beginning of each two-year exercise or cycle, 

the permanent NEA/IAEA joint Working Party and the 

permanent NEA/IAEA joint Steering Group together 

issue a questionnaire (revised at the beginning of each biennial exercise) to all the Member States of both Agencies 

who are known to have any interest in uranium. [These 

joint committees consist of representatives appointed by 

Member States which produce and (or) consume radium.] 

After the completed questionnaires are received, a joint 

Working Party meeting is convened to which representatives of the countries returning questionnaires are now 

invited. This expanded, entire Working Party then reviews 

relevant resource definitions, cost ranges, availability, constraints on exploration and production, demand, additional sources of supply and the resource estimates. Each 

national representative is a full member of the joint Working Party and may be asked by the other members to explain or defend the figures submitted by his country. The 

views expressed at this international discussion are consolidated by the scientific secretaries of the two agencies into a draft text which is normally reviewed at least once at 

other meetings of the entire NEA/IAEA Working Party 

and of the NEA/IAEA Steering Group.

The number of countries reporting uranium resource 

figures to the Working Party has risen from 20 initially in 

1965 to 32 in 1979. Similarly countries reporting uranium

production have risen from 9 in 1969 to 15 in 1979. The 

resource estimates for 1979 are given in tables 1 and 2. 

Figure 1 shows the changes in estimated resource figures 

over the last 14 years.

OTHERS*

GABON

NIGER

ALGERIA 

FRANCE

AUSTRALIA

—— SOUTH AFRICA

—— CANADA

Jan Jan Jan

* Other designates: Argentina, Brazil, Central African Empire, 

People's Republic of the Congo, Denmark (Greenland), Federal 

Republic of Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Morocco, 

Portugal, Spain, Yugoslavia, Zaire.

Source: NEA/IAEA Joint Working Party on Uranium

Resources.

Figure 1 Growth in market-economy and developing countries 

of reasonably assured uranium resources from 1965 to 1979. 

[Quantities of ore are shown in metric tonnes for the following 

production cost categories: 1965, 1967, 1970 at $10/lb U3O8 

($26/kg U), 1975 at $15Ab U3O8 ($39/kg U) and 1977 and 1979 

(projected) at $30/lb U3O8 ($80/kg U); resources for 1979 are 

projected. Namibia's reserves are distinguished from South 

Africa's in the reporting period indicated.]

It must be emphasized that these reports are the result 

of voluntary cooperation and while the figures may be 

challenged by other members of the joint Working Party 

and may have to be explained or defended by the national 

representative, it is ultimately each Government's approved figures which are accepted and published.

The Working Party also concerns itself with additional 

sources of supply such as higher cost uranium, by-product 

uranium, and very low-grade uranium resources.

116 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Table 1 Estimates of WOCA uranium as reasonably assured 

resources, as of mid-1979 

[Quantities are given in 1,000 tonnes U]

COST RANGE IN 1979 U.S

WOCA 

COUNTRY

Algeria

Argentina

Australia

Austria

Bolivia

Botswana

Brazil

Canada

Central African Empire

Chile

Denmark

Egypt

Finland

France

Gabon

Germany, Federal Republic of

India

Italy

Japan

Korea, Republic of ___________________ 

Madagascar

Mexico

Namibia

Niger _____

Philippines

Portugal

Somalia

South Africa

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

United Kingdom

U.S.A.

Yugoslavia

Zaire

Total

Total (rounded)

<$80/kgU 

(reserves)

28 

23 

290 

1.8

0

87.5 

172 

18 

0 

0

0 

0 

39.6 

20 

4

29.8 

0 

7.7 

0 

0 

6

117 

160 

.3 

6.7 

0 

247

9.8 

0 

2.4 

0 

531 

4.5 

1.8

1,807.9

1,800

$80-130/kg U 

(other assured 

resources)

0 

5.1 

9 

0 

0 

.4

0

17 

0 

0

27

0

2.7 

15.7 

0 

.5

0 

1.2 

0 

4.4 

0 

0

16 

0 

0 

1.5 

4.6 

114

0 

301 

1.5 

0 

192 

2.0 

0

745.6

750

. DOLLARS

Total recoverable 

resources up to 

$130/kg U

28 

28.1 

229 

1.8 

0 

.4

87.5 

189 

18 

0

27

0

2.7 

55.3 

20 

4.5

29.8 

1.2 

7.7 

4.4 

0 

6

133 

160 

.3 

8.2 

4.6 

391

9.8 

301 

3.9 

0 

723 

6.5 

1.8

2,553.5

2,550

The International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project 

Steering Group on Uranium Resources (IUREP)

Apart from jointly guiding the "Red Book" exercises, 

the main task of the Steering Group in recent years has 

been to carry out the International Uranium Resource 

Evaluation Project (IUREP). Recognizing that the "Red 

Book" exercises did not constitute complete appraisals of 

the world's uranium resources, the joint Steering Group 

undertook a follow-up study "to better define the possible 

extent and location of further undiscovered uranium 

resources, referred to as 'Speculative Resources' exploitable at costs less than U.S. $130/kg U."

In contrast to the "Red Book" exercises, this IUREP 

Phase I evaluation of Speculative Resources did not rely on 

Government estimates and submissions but on evaluations 

arising from bibliographic studies by a group of approximately 30 international consultants. Their work was in 

turn evaluated, finalized and endorsed by the 14 members 

of the joint Steering Group. In December 1978 it was copublished by NEA/IAEA as "World Uranium Potential: 

An International Evaluation" (OECD, Paris).

Group of Experts (R&D) in Uranium Exploration Techniques

In 1976 a Group of Experts was set up as one of the 

permanent NEA/IAEA Committees. Composed of technical representatives from 12 Member States and International Organizations interested in, and actively involved in, 

research and development in uranium exploration techniques, the Group recommended that a series of workshops be convened to select subjects for collaborative 

research and development. These workshops were to 

enable experts to exchange information on the state of current research, and to identify areas or sectors in which international cooperation in research and development could 

be expected to lead to the early discovery of new uranium 

deposits. Proposals were formulated and workshop subjects were selected so as to further international collaboration in four major sectors:

1. Dissemination of existing knowledge, 

a. Exploration case histories.

Table 2 Estimated additional resources of WOCA uranium as 

expected occurrences, as of mid-1979 

[Quantities are given in 1,000 tonnes U; figures for Canada 

are from STI/PUB/148 (Vienna, 1966); for Austria, Bolivia, 

Gabon, Madagascar, the Philippines, Yugoslavia, and Zaire 

are from STI/PUB/198 (Buenos Aires, 1968); for Mexico 

from STI/PUB/227 (Vienna, 1970); all other figures are from 

the Joint NEA/IAEA Working Party on Uranium (Paris, 

1977) and additional information up to mid-1979.]

COST RANGE IN 1979 U.S.

WOCA 

COUNTRY

Algeria

Argentina

Australia

Austria

Bolivia

Botswana

Brazil

Canada

Central African Empire

Chile

Denmark

Egypt

Finland

France

Gabon

Germany, Federal Republic of

India

Italy

Japan

Korea, Republic of

Madagascar

Mexico

Namibia

Niger

Philippines

Portugal

Somalia 

South Africa

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

United Kingdom

U.S.A.

Yugoslavia

Zaire

Total

Total (rounded)

<$80/kgU $80-130/kgU 

(other additional 

(reserves) resources)

0 

3.8 

47 

0 

0 

0

106.3 

404 

0 

5.1 

0

0 

0 

26.2

5 

7

.9 

0 

0 

0 

0 

2.4

30 

53 

0 

2.5 

0 

54

8.5 

0 

0 

0 

742 

5 

1.7

1,504.4

1,500

5.5 

5.3 

6 

0 

.5 

0

0 

302 

0 

0 

16

5 

.5 

20 

5 

.5

22.8 

2 

0 

0 

2 

0

23 

0 

0 

0 

2.4 

85

0 

3 

0 

7.4 

393 

15.5 

0

922.4

920

DOLLARS

Total recoverable 

resources up to 

$130/kg U

5.5 

9.1 

53 

0 

.5 

0

106.3 

706 

0 

5.1 

16

5 

.5 

46.2 

10

7.5

23.7 

2 

0 

0 

2 

2.4

53 

53 

0 

2.5 

2.4 

139

8.5 

3 

0 

7.4 

1,135 

20.5 

1.7

2,426.8

2,420

Nuclear Raw Materials 117
2. Improvement of data quality.

b. Measurement of natural gamma radiation, 

c. Data handling and interpretation, 

d. Instrument technology.

3. Identification of potentially productive regions, 

e. Uranium provinces, 

f. Rock geochemistry, 

g. Uranium deposit genesis, 

h. Airborne radiometrics in mountainous areas, 

i. Uranium favourability by mineral analysis.

4. Discovery of concealed mineralization, 

j. Borehole logging, 

k. Gases in uranium exploration.

1. Subsurface geophysical exploration, 

m. Biogeochemistry.

Seven of the workshops had been held as of October 

1979, and project proposals were formulated for international cooperation and for jointly funded research and 

development. The first proposal on Exploration Case 

Histories culminated at a meeting in Vienna where documented case histories were presented on at least twenty 

major deposits that were discovered and explored within 

the last twenty years. They will be co-published by 

NEA/IAEA. It is hoped that the other projects will 

be eventually fulfilled through similar international 

collaboration.

TECHNICAL ASSISTANCE PROVIDED 1959-1979

COUNTRY

AFGHANISTAN

ARGENTINA

BANGLADESH

BOLIVIA

BRAZIL

BURMA

CAMEROON

CHAD

CHILE

ECUADOR

EGYPT

ETHIOPIA

GHANA

GREECE

GUATEMALA

INDIA

INDONESIA

IRAQ

KENYA

KOREA

LIBYA

MADAGASCAR

MEXICO

MOROCCO

NICARAGUA

NIGERIA

PAKISTAN

PARAGUAY

PERU

PHILIPPINES

PORTUGAL

SAUDI ARABIA

SOMALI

SRI LANKA

SUDAN

THAILAND

TUNISIA

TURKEY

UGANDA

URUGUAY

VENEZUELA

YUGOSLAVIA

ZAMBIA

EXPERTS ON DUTY 

EACH YEAR

1959

t

1

1960

EE(

PRl=j:

put:

t=

«C5

t==

12

1961

==)

iM*

=|PR

=^PR

=1

OPB

PH£

OA

p=3PR

13

1962

EEt

==)OP

t==

JPR

<=t

t=fc>A

EE(=

11

1963

==)

OP^r

^^PR

*>« t

."_...

t=

=»

8

1964

=4

M f=

1=

=^OA

PR

1=1

OAfc

t=

9

1965

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OR PROJECTS 

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Figure 2 Summary of technical assistance in uranium provided by IAEA to developing countries from 1959 through 1979.

118 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
IAEA Technical Assistance to Developing Countries in 

Uranium Exploration, Development and Production

The fourth permanent NBA/IAEA Committee serves 

as the Working Group on Uranium Extraction. All 

Member States of the Agency are eligible for technical 

assistance provided under the Regular Programme and 

both Member and non-Member States are eligible for 

assistance from the Agency under the United Nations 

Development Programme funding, provided that they are 

economically developing and are members of the United 

Nations or of the specialized agencies. The IAEA advises 

governments on uranium exploration, development and 

production programmes and provides field experts and 

equipment and training to their nationals who are professionals and technicians.

Figure 2 summarizes the IAEA technical assistance 

programme in uranium subjects from 1959 to the present. 

The first, a single-expert mission, was to Burma in late 

1959, and since that time IAEA has fielded approximately 

140 separate projects in 45 countries, engaging 162 field experts and including 7 large-scale UNDP financed projects 

with teams of experts. To support these projects, equipment worth U.S. $2,668,400 has been supplied.

At the end of each project the chief field expert must 

write a report of his activities, with recommendations to 

the recipient Government for further action. These reports 

are the exclusive property of the host government, but 

governments are asked to de-restrict the reports and make 

them available to other IAEA Member States after a 

period of three months. Thus these reports are usually also 

available to IAEA staff as information for the international data base on world uranium geology, exploration and development that is being assembled at IAEA 

headquarters.

International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation Project

As set up separately by IAEA at an organizing Conference in Washington in October 1977, Working Group 

No. 1 of the International Nuclear Fuel Cycle Evaluation 

Project had among its responsibilities the estimation of 

needs for nuclear energy and the related needs for and 

availability of uranium. Sub-Group B (Nuclear Fuel 

Resources) of INFCE Working Group No. 1 was closely 

linked with the joint committee studies undertaken by the 

NEA/IAEA Working Party and Steering Group on 

uranium resources. But in addition to assessing the 

available information on uranium resources Sub-Group B 

gave greater emphasis to high-cost, low-grade resources as 

possible future sources of uranium.

INTernational URanium GEOlogy Information System 

(INTURGEO)

Both through the various advisory and technical aid 

programmes outlined above, and through many other

direct contacts with uranium geologists in Member State 

governments, with geologists in international organizations, and with geologists in industry, the IAEA has acquired a large collection of maps, technical papers, reports 

and news clippings about uranium all over the world. The 

global scale of such a mass of information mandated a 

computer data base able to store and disseminate the essentials of this information to all Member States.

Accordingly, the International Uranium Geology Information System (INTURGEO) was designed in April 1978 

by four leading science information experts, including one 

from the U.S. Geological Survey. Implemented in 

February 1979, INTURGEO is stored on discs of an IBM 

model 370-3350 computer and is maintained by ADABAS, a 

commercial data management system. The organization of 

INTURGEO reflects IAEA's five-fold approach to uranium 

resource analysis, since it consists of five specialized data 

files:

The Regional Reference File or RRF systematically 

stores information on the geology of a region so that the 

characteristics favourable to uranium mineralization can 

be determined. Other pertinent data on the region are also 

stored in this file.

Exploration Activity File or EAF contains the data 

that characterize the uranium exploration for a specific 

region, so that the uranium favourability of the region and 

need for further exploration can be assessed.

Deposit/Occurrence File or DOF stores those 

geological data that characterize uranium ore deposits or 

occurrences so that deposits can be compared and 

classified. The IAEA wishes particularly to acknowledge 

the consulting service of Virginia Byers of the U.S. 

Geological Survey, who acted as consultant and incorporated data on the principal uranium deposits of the 

world that had been collected by the USGS over the last 

several years. As a result the DOF now contains 325 

records.

International Summary File or ISF summarizes 

uranium information on a country or political region. This 

includes a country's uranium resources and its known attitude toward uranium resource development.

Ore Processing File or OPF is presently being 

developed.

Except for OPF, the system is fully operative, 

although with a limited amount of data at present. (The 

main components of the first four files are shown in figure 

3.) In a paper read at the IIASAmeeting held at Laxenburg, 

Austria, in July 1979, Linda Trocki and Maurice Hansen 

of the IAEA staff provided a description of INTURGEO for 

the Conference on Systems Aspects of Energy and 

Minerals Resources. The conference was sponsored by the 

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. 

Eventually, INTURGEO will cover world uranium geology,

Nuclear Raw Materials 119
INTURGEO

INFORMATION SYSTEM

ID Number

Region Name

Centroid

Admin. 

Jurisdiction

Size

Region Type

U Resources

Level of

Exploration

Geologic 

Envi ronment

Maps

References

Recorder

ID Number

Area Name

Centroid

Admin. 

Jurisdiction

Size

Level of

Exploration

Rxploration 

Detail

Maps

References

Recorder

ID Number

Deposit Name

Centroid

Admin. 

Jurisdiction

Owner/operator

Mill Name

Commodities

U Resources

U Production

Discovery

Geology 

of Host

Regional 

Geology

Deposit Type

Mineralogy

Deposit 

Geometry

Maps

References

Recorder

ID Number

Country

Centroid

Admin. 

Jurisdiction

Size

U Resources

U Production

U Geology 

of Country

Geographical 

Statistics

Kxp./kining 

Organizations

U Law/Attitudes

References

Recorder

Figure 3 Organization of four of INTURGEO's five data files 

illustrate similarities of information. (Items occurring on the same 

line have similar structures.)

exploration, resources, and production so that information application for atomic energy uses can and will be as 

diverse as the users. The most obvious application is simply the collection, systematic storage, and retrieval of vast 

amounts of geologic data. World-wide dissemination of 

uranium resource information is another application of 

high priority in IAEA. INTURGEO will also provide users 

with a rapid method for intelligent resource appraisal. In 

summary, the five-fold INTURGEO approach to world 

uranium resources data is unique and the possibilities for 

scientific and economic applications are unlimited.

With the support of its Member States, the IAEA will 

maintain the most complete uranium geology file in existence, available to participants for the cost of a timesharing terminal and a telephone call. Up to now the project has been supported by IUREP and thus indirectly by the 

U.S. Department of Energy, but it will require a steady 

source of other funding, such as contributions from more 

Member States, to ensure technical stability and maintenance of the data bank. It is a pleasure to acknowledge a 

pledge of financial support from the U.S. Geological

Survey, but additional funding will still be required. 

Besides giving such financial support, the scientific support of Member States will be of great help in coding and 

verifying data on their own countries.

PART II: SOME CONSIDERATIONS TOWARD 

THE 21ST CENTURY

Uranium Demand

Any forward view of the uranium exploration and 

production industry, international or national, will be 

determined by uranium demand both in the latter part of 

this century and in the 21st Century. In fact, any planning 

for the future is first of all related to the overall world 

energy demand and the mix of fuels necessary to meet that 

demand. The world energy demand in the next century will 

be dependent on a large and complex number of factors 

such as predicted population growth, economic growth, 

technology related to the supply and utilization of all fuels, 

resource availability, environmental considerations, health 

and safety, national and international policies, and war 

and peace. As these factors are undeniably interdependent, 

the problem of predicting overall energy demand and the 

mix of fuels making up that demand is obviously extremely 

complex.

Energy utilization in the latter part of this century and 

in the 21st Century could follow an almost infinite number 

of options within very wide boundaries related to the extremes of either total economic collapse or of buoyant 

growth.

Taking a reasonable view of the future as from 

mid-1979 it would seem that nuclear power must play some 

significant role in the future energy scenario, even though 

the amount will depend on world economic growth and all 

the other factors mentioned above.

At the present time, the consensus of experts involved 

in forecasts is that any attempt to specify the most probable level of installed nuclear capacity for the long term is 

virtually impossible. The best that can be done is to try to 

establish the most probable high and low limits, while 

allowing that the actual capacity is most likely to lie between them. But installed nuclear capacity may even prove 

to be outside that predicted range.

Many experts, including those in the Joint 

NBA/IAEA Working Party on Nuclear Fuel Cycle Requirements, in the International Nuclear Fuel Cycle 

Evaluation project, in the International Energy Agency, 

and in the World Energy Conference have predicted a 

nuclear capacity range of 1,000 to 1,800 gigawatts electric 

(GWe) in the year 2000 and a much higher range for the 

year 2025. These experts based their predictions mainly on 

responses obtained from questionnaires sent to national 

authorities.

120 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
In the period before the year 2000, predictions for 

reactor mixes and fuel cycle strategies are based on national replies to questionnaires and while reliable to that 

extent nevertheless cover a very wide range for lifetime 

uranium requirements for reactors committed through the 

year 2000. Estimates range from 2.9 million tonnes of 

uranium at the low end to 8.4 million tonnes of uranium at 

the high end.

For the period after the year 2000, the picture is not at 

all clear either. The experts had to view the situation from 

the standpoint of current and future technology, such as 

fast breeder reactors with 100 percent high uranium utilization, in order to quantify high and low uranium requirements. The cumulative net demand for uranium up to the 

year 2025 has been estimated to be between 3.60 million 

tonnes of uranium at the low end and 12.00 million tonnes 

of uranium at the high end. However, if the lifetime requirements for committed reactors up to the year 2017 is 

included that is, eight years before the start-up of the 

reactors the range is from 4.00 to 20.00 million tonnes 

uranium.

The uranium requirements from the present up to 

some point near the middle of the 21st Century will, most 

probably, fall within this range, and it would be difficult to 

assume that any one point in this range is inherently more 

likely than any other. Furthermore, few expert assessments 

have attempted to make predictions of nuclear power 

beyond the year 2017 or 2025 for lifetime reactor commitments, but it seems improbable that reactor commitment and installment would come to an abrupt end on 

those dates. Some substantial demand for uranium would 

seem to be a reasonable assumption for the rest of the century in addition to that required by reactors committed up 

to the year 2025.

It is thus the author's view that the uranium geologists 

and the uranium exploration and development industry in 

the countries of the World Outside the Centrally Planned 

Economies Area (WOCA) should be setting a target for 

discovery, exploration, and development of 20 million 

tonnes of uranium as they approach the start of the 21st 

Century, despite the fact that this figure could be considered to be at the high end of the expected demand range. 

I realize that fulfillment is likely to be very difficult and it 

may therefore be all the more important and prudent to 

keep this target figure of 20 million tonnes U in the 

forefront of the planning by this and the next generations 

of geologists and explorationists.

Uranium Supply

Tables 1 and 2 summarize the WOCA uranium 

resources as of mid-1979. The reasonably assured 

resources (Reserves) (table 1) available at a cost less than 

U.S. $80/kg U in 1979 amount to approximately 1.80

million tonnes of uranium as estimated from the figures 

published by the Joint NEA/IAEA Working Party on 

Uranium Resources, Production and Demand (1977) plus 

additional information available up to mid-1979. In addition, the Reasonably Assured Resources within the cost 

range of U.S. $80 to $130/kg U amount to 0.75 million 

tonnes of uranium, making a total of 2.55 million 

recoverable tonnes up to the limiting cost of $130/kg U.

Over and above this reasonably assured supply, the 

Estimated Additional Resources up to the limiting cost of 

U.S. $130/kg U total 2.42 million tonnes of uranium (table 

2). However, the definition of estimated additional resources states that this refers to uranium that is expected to 

occur, mostly on the basis of direct geological evidence in 

extensions of well-explored deposits, little explored 

deposits and undiscovered deposits believed to exist along 

a well-defined geological trend with known deposits. In 

other words, estimated additional resources are subject to 

confirmation by exploration.

If the target of 20 million tonnes uranium for the next 

century is acceptable, then there are at present only 1.80 

million tonnes, or 2.55 million tonnes if higher costs are 

acceptable, to set against it at the present time. All the difference, 17.45 to 18.20 million tonnes, is dependent on 

future exploration.

There is no doubt that additional, as yet undiscovered 

uranium resources will be identified and brought into use 

some time in the future. But we must ask, is it reasonable 

to predict that resources of an order of magnitude of 17.5 

to 18.20 million tonnes of conventional type, relatively 

low-cost uranium resources, can be found in the unexplored or incompletely explored parts of the WOCA 

countries?

Meanwhile, lower grade, higher-cost resources are being 

identified. For example, it is calculated that 15.0 million 

tonnes of uranium occur in the world's marine phosphate 

deposits and in shales, granites, and other disseminated 

deposits. These subeconomic reserves could be exploited 

technically if demand generates a price that would make 

them commercially attractive to the mining industry.

Thus, the nuclear power industry and the uranium industry face a twofold question as the 21st Century approaches. Should support be given to geologists and explorationists to help them find conventional type low-cost 

uranium in unexplored areas over the world? Or should 

support be given to chemists, mill technologists, and 

engineers to ensure uranium supplies from such known 

sources as phosphates, black shales, granites, and sea 

water? For geologists there is no doubt that the first half of 

the question posits the more attractive option, although it 

would be prudent to give some emphasis to research on 

recovery of uranium from low grade sources, as eventually 

they may have to make an important contribution 

especially in the next century.

Nuclear Raw Materials 121
International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project

With this as background, the Joint NEA/IAEA Steering Group on Uranium Resources launched the International Uranium Resources Evaluation Project (IUREP) in 

early 1977 to better define the possible extent and location 

of further undiscovered uranium resources exploitable at 

costs less than U.S. $130/kg U (in 1979 dollars) which were 

called "Speculative Resources." Speculative Resources 

refers to uranium, in addition to Estimated Additional 

Resources, that is thought to exist mostly on the basis of 

indirect evidence and geological extrapolations, in deposits 

discoverable with existing exploration techniques. Deposits 

envisaged in this category can generally be specified only as 

located somewhere within a given region of geological 

trend.

As the term implies, the existence and size of such 

resources are highly speculative. In Phase I of the IUREP 

project completed in June 1978, studies of 185 countries 

covered general geography, geology in relation to potentially favourable uranium bearing areas, past exploration, 

uranium occurrences, past production, present states of 

exploration, and the potential for new discoveries. For 

each of these 185 countries, a judgement was made of the 

order of magnitude of their additional potential. To 

facilitate the process of judging the relative favour ability 

of each country's uranium potential, the Steering Group 

devised a ranking scheme: low, moderate, moderate to 

high, high, high to very high, and very high. For the purpose of obtaining an aggregate measure of this potential, 

the Group also applied ranges of tonnages to the rankings. 

The Speculative Resources derived by this method for the 

world excluding the People's Republic of China and the 

eastern part of the USSR, and for continental divisions, 

are shown in table 3. This 1978 report was summarized in 

the NEA/IAEA publication "World Uranium Potential" 

(1978) which is available from OECD, Paris.

Table 3 Speculative uranium resources listed by continent, excluding People's Republic of China and the eastern part 

of USSR

[The potential shown here is "Estimated Total Potential" and 

includes an element for "Reasonably Assured Resources" and 

"Estimated Additional Resources" although those data were 

not available in 1978 to the Steering Group.]

] CONTINENT ' Africa

North America _

South America and Central 

America

Asia and Far East _

Australia and Oceania _

Western Europe _ _ _

Total .

Eastern Europe, USSR, People's 

Republic of China _

NUMBER OF S 

COUNTRIES

51

3

41

41

18

23

111

8

PECULATIVE RESOURCES 

(IN MILLION TONNES U)

1.2 4.0

2.1- 3.6

.7- 1.9

.2- 1.0

2.0- 3.0

.3- 1.3

6.5-14.8

3.3- 7.3

These IUREP totals are not meant to indicate ultimate 

resources of uranium since the Steering Group's perspective was restricted by current knowledge which is in turn 

severely limited in many areas of the world. For this reason 

judgements of Speculative Resources may change as cumulative geological knowledge increases. It is important also 

to emphasize that even if these Speculative Resources exist, 

as presumed, there is no guarantee that the resources will 

be discovered or if discovered that they can be made 

available. The estimates imply nothing about discoverability or availability. It is essential that the tonnages of 

Speculative Resources should not, under any circumstances, be used for nuclear power programme planning 

purposes. They should be viewed as a qualitative measure 

of the present state of geological knowledge and simply 

be regarded as both a target for future exploration efforts 

and a guide for establishing priorities for subsequent 

evaluations.

From these figures it may be assumed that even if the 

high "Speculative Resources" totals could eventually be 

converted to Reserves and this may be a very wild 

assumption it would still leave a considerable gap between that and the stated target of 20 million tonnes 

uranium for the 21st Century. Either the geologists of the 

future must do better than the IUREP estimates or from 20 

to 30 percent of the stated target should come from higher 

cost low-grade sources.

In addition to aggregating the Speculative Resource 

tonnages by continents, the 185 WOCA countries were 

also grouped from highest (I) to the lowest potential (V), 

depending on how the Steering Group viewed their future 

potential for uranium resources. The 8 countries in the 

Centrally Planned Economy Area (USSR, People's 

Republic of China, and Eastern Europe) were simply listed 

together as Group VI. Figures for speculative resources in 

that group may be considered mainly conjectural. (See 

table 4.)

Group I, with the highest Speculative Resource potential of between 5.1 and 9.9 million tonnes uranium, is 

formed by the 20 countries whose geological potential is 

undoubtedly good and where exploration is obviously to

Table 4 Speculative world uranium resources listed by category

[Categories I to V includes the WOCA Countries; category VI 

includes the USSR, the People's Republic of China, and 6 

countries in Eastern Europe.]

NUMBER OF SPECULATIVE RESOURCES 

CATEGORY COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TONNES U)

I _

II __

III _ _ _

IV _______

V

VI _

Totals

20 

11 

26

43 

77 

8

185

5.1- 9.9 

1.0- 3.0 

.4- 1.4 

.0- .4 

.0- .1 

3.3- 7.3

9.8-22.1

122 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
be encouraged. But in these, international assistance is unnecessary or inappropriate as the exploration is well 

directed, intensive, and likely to continue to be so. This 

category includes Australia, Canada, France, Federal 

Republic of Germany, Italy, Namibia, Niger, South 

Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States 

of America.

Group II, with the second highest potential of between

1.0 and 3.0 million tonnes uranium, consists of 11 countries with good geological potential, but where exploration 

is presently inadequate. These all warrant further exploration and evaluation. They are Algeria, Angola, Argentina, 

Brazil, India, Libya, Mali, Mexico, Somalia, Zaire and 

Zambia.

Group III consists of 26 countries whose geologic 

potential is similar to that of Group II but whose 

speculative potential is considered to be less than in Group

11 for a total ranging from 0.4 to 1.4 million tonnes of 

uranium. Bolivia, Botswana, Cameroon, Central African 

Republic, Chad, Colombia, Congo, Ethiopia, Gabon, Indonesia, and Madagascar are among those assigned to this 

group.

Group IV consists of 43 countries considered to have 

limited potential but some geological interest which may 

warrant international assistance in uranium exploration. 

The total speculative potential assigned to this group was 0 

to 0.4 million tonnes uranium. Countries such as 

Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, Liberia, Paraguay, 

Uruguay, and the two Yemens were assigned to this 

category.

Group V includes 77 countries that are considered to 

have a very small potential for the discovery of uranium 

and were assigned in aggregate a range from 0 to 0.1 

million tonnes uranium. Such countries as Bahrain, Benin, 

Fiji, Lebanon, Luxembourg, Nepal, Qatar, Timor, and 

Upper Volta are included in this category.

Group VI consists of 6 non-WOCA countries of 

Eastern Europe, and the USSR and the People's Republic 

of China. No comment can be made on these 8 countries, 

except that they were tentatively assigned speculative 

uranium resources in a range from 9.8 to 22.1 million 

tonnes.

The selection and categorizing of the 185 WOCA 

countries (Groups I to V) was not influenced by any 

political or access situation nor on whether they are advanced industrial countries or developing countries. The 

only matters considered were their geological potential for 

further uranium resources and their exploration capability 

and history.

Clearly the greatest future potential lies in the 

Category I countries. These are the countries which 

already contain 90 percent of the world's Reasonably 

Assured Resources and Estimated Additional Resources;

therefore the IUREP group may have been somewhat biased 

by the extent of the existing information on uranium 

resources. Nevertheless it was and is felt that the greatest 

promise for additional uranium lies in these countries and 

that the exploration problem is likely to be adequately 

taken care of by Government organizations and private industry acting on the spur of demand and price incentives. 

However, these are also the countries where depletion 

and exhaustion of deposits will first occur. There is also 

the possibility that the IUREP estimates are wrong and that 

the highest Speculative Resources do not occur in the 

Group I countries. For these reasons it is very important 

that the Group II and Group III countries receive adequate 

exploration attention at the earliest possible date so that 

they can make their contribution to world uranium supply 

in the 21st Century. The following very brief summaries of 

the 37 developing countries in Group II and III are 

therefore presented to give small glimpses of the geological 

potential and the exploration requirements which, if 

fulfilled, might make a contribution to the uranium 

resources of the 21st Century (fig. 4).

Information Summaries on IUREP Selected 

Developing Countries

Group II and III Countries with Good Uranium 

Potential

Algeria is believed to have moderate to high uranium 

potential. Additional uranium-bearing veins could be 

discovered in the Precambrian rocks of the Hoggar and, 

possibly, in the Eglab (Reguibat) massif. Large areas of 

Tassili Series and also continental Cretaceous sediments, 

outcropping around the fringes of the Hoggar and Eglab 

massifs and in the Tindouf syncline, probably have 

uranium potential. A stratiform deposit, which is being 

evaluated at the present time, has been discovered at the 

base of the Tassili on the southern side of the Hoggar.

Angola has moderate to high uranium potential. Proterozoic unconformity deposits could be present in the 

middle Proterozoic Oendolongo Series. The Bembe System 

is probably a correlative of the cupriferous and 

uraniferous Katanga Group of Zaire and Zambia. Karroo, 

Cretaceous and Tertiary (Kalahari sands) continental 

sediments are present in the interior of Angola. Calcrete 

uranium development is possible within the Kalahari 

sands. Uranium mineralization could be associated with 

known carbonatites.

Argentina is considered to have a high potential for 

additional uranium resources. The majority of the known 

uranium deposits in Argentina occur in Permian and 

Cretaceous sediments especially in Mendoza Province. Exploration to date suggests that such sediments, which are

Nuclear Raw Materials 123
Figure 4 lUREP-selected developing countries 

with good potential for uranium. (Speculative 

potential estimated to be between 1,400,000 and 

4,400,000 tonnes uranium.)

exposed in many areas in the Cordillera of western Argentina, are the most promising for the discovery of new 

deposits.

The Comisi6n Nacional de Energia Atomica (CNEA) 

is actively exploring, initially by aerial radiometric surveys, 

many areas of the Cordillera but much potentially favourable ground remains to be covered.

Bolivia is thought to have a moderate potential for additional uranium resources. Although no uranium reserves 

are credited to Bolivia, there are geologic possibilities for 

several types of deposits. Large areas of eastern Bolivia are 

underlain by Precambrian rocks of the Guapore massif 

and these should be investigated for the presence of quartzpebble or Proterozoic unconformity-related deposits.

In addition, vein occurrences are known in the Central 

Cordillera and many radiometric anomalies have been 

detected within the Tertiary sedimentary succession in the 

Altiplano. The Tertiary volcanics in the Altiplano are also 

attractive targets for further study.

The Comisi6n Boliviana de Energia Nuclear (COBOEN) 

has been active in several areas together with outside agencies, in particular with Azienda Generale Italiana Petroli 

(AGIP).

Botswana has moderate to high uranium potential as 

most of the exposed sedimentary and metamorphic environments are geologically capable, including the 

Transvaal and Waterberg Supergroups, which could have 

quartz-pebble conglomerate uranium deposits; the late 

Proterozoic platform sediments of northwestern 

Botswana; the Karroo Series, in which uranium occurrences are known; and the Kalahari sands, where both 

sandstone uranium and "Yeelirrie-type" calcrete deposits 

could have been formed. Some uranium occurrences are 

known both in the Karroo and in Kalahari calcrete.

Brazil has a high to very high potential for additional 

uranium resources. The area of Brazil is large and its 

geology is favourable in various places for every known

124 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
0 UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS

type of uranium deposit. Significant uranium deposits 

have been found in sediments of the Parana Basin, and this 

huge basin should be prospected further. Several occurrences of uranium associated with quartz-pebble conglomerates are known and, although none of these are 

economically viable deposits, the potential for such 

deposits exists within the Precambrian shield areas. 

Uranium is also known in the form of disseminated and 

vein occurrences in the Precambrian rocks of the Serido 

geosyncline. The similarities of this area in Brazil to that 

containing the Rosasing deposit in Namibia is most encouraging. The full potential of the recently discovered 

Itataia phosphate-uranium occurrences in the south has yet 

to be realized. While a very considerable national and 

bilateral effort is being undertaken, the country is so vast 

and the geology of such favourable potential that much 

ground remains to be covered.

Burundi and Rwanda have both been assigned to 

moderate uranium potential. A UNDP airborne survey in

1963 detected between 70 and 80 anomalies in the two 

countries. A random survey over the Tertiary rift valley 

sediments found high radioactivity at the contact of these 

sediments and basement rocks just north of Lake 

Tanganyika in Burundi. Further to the north in Rwanda, 

radioactive water has been found in springs along the same 

alignment. In the extreme southeast of Burundi, a relatively small area of upper Proterozoic~platform sediments 

merits attention to determine if they are "Copper Belt" 

facies and, if so, to examine them for reduced zones or 

faults.

Cameroon is thought to have a moderate potential for 

the discovery of uranium resources. Uraninite occurs at 

Goble in northern Cameroon as thin coatings on fault 

planes and fractures at a Precambrian syenite-schist contact. The middle Proterozoic Lower Dja Series, which has 

been correlated with the uraniferous Francevillian Series of 

Gabon, is present in the southern part of the country. 

Cretaceous continental sediments (Garoua sandstones) are

Nuclear Raw Materials 125
exposed in the northern part of the country (uranium occurrences are known in the Cretaceous of Niger). The belt 

of "Younger Granites" (Tertiary?) could have uranium 

potential. In fact, a UNDP project is evaluating a recent 

vein uranium discovery in one of these "Younger Granites" 

in southwestern Chad. The intrusive straddles the ChadCameroon boundary.

The Central African Republic is thought to have a 

moderate potential for additional uranium resources. The 

Bakouma deposits in this country are unusual, if not 

unique, and probably the best hope for finding additional 

uranium in the Central African Republic would be under 

similar geological conditions in the south-central part of 

the country. The possibility also exists for finding 

unconformity-related deposits near or at the contact of upper Proterozoic and older Precambrian rocks. The several 

areas of Cretaceous and Tertiary continental sediments are 

also prospective for uranium.

Chad is believed to have a moderate uranium potential. Precambrian rocks are present in the Tibesti massif in 

the northwestern part of the country; in the east-central 

part of Chad; and in the south. Lower Palaeozoic sandstones (Tassili Series?) rest upon Precambrian in the 

Tibesti area. Stratiform uranium occurrences are present 

at the base of the Tassili Series on the south side of the 

Hoggar massif of Algeria. Recently discovered uranium 

occurrences in southwestern Chad, in veins cutting a 

"Younger Granite" (Tertiary?), are being evaluated at the 

present time. Continental Cretaceous and Tertiary 

sediments outcrop in the southern part of the country and 

dip northward into the subsurface of the Chad Basin.

Colombia has a moderate potential for uranium resources. There are numerous unpublished reports on 

uranium occurrences in Colombia which are catalogued in 

libraries in Bogota. Large areas of Colombia have not been 

mapped. This is particularly true of the eastern part of the 

country which is underlain by Precambrian rocks of the 

Guyana massif, which must be regarded as an area of good 

potential for uranium deposits. The Santander and Garzon 

massifs of the Cordillera Oriental are areas which contain 

uranium occurrences in veins and may also contain disseminated and, possibly, Proterozoic unconformityrelated deposits. Areas of the Cordillera Central should 

also be examined as they may also contain vein or 

disseminated deposits. Mesozoic sediments in the Cordillera Central and the Cordillera Oriental have some 

potential for sandstone uranium deposits.

The Institute de Asuntos Nucleares (IAN) is working 

together with MINATOME and Empresa Nacional del Uranio 

S.A. of Spain (ENUSA) in prospecting central and northeast 

Colombia. Other companies have also explored in Colombia but no data are available.

Congo has no known uranium resources but is thought 

to have moderate uranium potential. The middle Proterozoic Mayumbe System is a possible correlative of the 

Francevillian Series of Gabon, in which several uranium 

deposits have been discovered and are in production. The 

West Congo System of upper Proterozoic age is an 

equivalent of the Katanga Group of Zaire and Zambia, 

which is notable for the Copper Belt mines and some 

uranium occurrences. In fact, in western Zaire, immediately to the south of the West Congo System outcrops in 

Congo near Mindouli, small deposits of copper, lead, zinc, 

arsenopyrite and uranium are known. The continental 

sandstones of the coastal plain region are all prospective 

for uranium.

Ethiopia appears to have moderate uranium potential 

even though no uranium occurrences are known. The 

country has not been adequately explored, even in a 

preliminary manner. The Wadera Group (middle Proterozoic?), consisting of arkoses and shales with subordinate quartzites, was deposited in a shallow basinal environment unconformably on a basement of para- and 

orthogneiss and metamorphosed granites. Geosynclinal 

zones and the Mozambique mobile belt subsequently 

developed on the above-described basement during the upper Proterozoic and possibly the lower Palaeozoic. Major 

unconformities exist within the Proterozoic and also there 

are numerous fracture zones and carbonaceous and 

graphitic sequences. These conditions could be conducive 

to the formation of uranium deposits. The Adigrat Sandstone is a possible partial correlative of the Karroo of 

southern Africa, and radioactivity of 3 or 4 times 

background has been noted locally. The Upper Cretaceous 

partially continental Jesomma Sandstone of the eastern 

Ogaden is prospective for uranium. A search should be 

made for "gypcrete" uranium deposits in southeastern 

Ethiopia similar to the secondary uranium deposits of the 

Mudugh Province of Somalia.

Gabon has a moderate to high uranium potential. 

Several sandstone uranium ore bodies have been discovered in the middle Proterozoic Francevillian Series of 

the Franceville Basin, which are in production and, 

possibly, there are more to be discovered. The upper Proterozoic West Congo and Noya Systems should also have 

potential for uranium as they are generally correlative with 

the Katanga Series of Zambia and Zaire and the Damara 

of Namibia and Botswana. The continental or marginal 

marine sequences of the coastal basin of Gabon are 

favorable for uranium.

Ghana has a moderate possibility for the discovery of 

uranium resources. Sandstone uranium deposits could be 

present in the Tarkwaian System of the intracratonic 

Voltaian Basin. The Tarkwaian System consists of 

fluviatile, deltaic, marginal marine and lacustrine clastic 

sediments, including arkosic sands, and was deposited on a 

dissected basement. Pyrite has been observed and uranium 

anomalies in stream water (up to 180 ppb) have been found

126 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
along the Voltaian scarp. Another prospective area, in 

which uranium veins might be found, is the contact zone 

between the West African Craton and the KatanganDamaran mobile zone.

India has a high potential for additional uranium 

resources. In peninsular India, the Indian Shield contains 

known viable deposits of uranium: some areas have not as 

yet been explored, so a potential for extending known 

deposits and discovering new ones exists, particularly 

disseminations in sheared metamorphic rocks, but also 

perhaps quartz-pebble conglomerate deposits. Basins of 

Gondwana continental sediments and some of later age 

resting on the Shield have shown some promise particularly the Upper Cretaceous of Meghalaya and are a 

favourable environment for sandstone deposits. Perhaps 

the most favourable and certainly the most extensive strata 

in which such deposits may be found are those of the 

Siwalik System, which outcrop in the Sub-Himalaya Belt 

(Himalaya Front Range). Calcrete deposits may be present 

in the deserts of northwest India.

Indonesia is regarded as favorable for uranium 

deposits on the larger islands of Sumatra, Java, and 

western Kalimantan and possibly also on Timor, 

Bangka, and Billiton (Belitung). The sedimentary rocks 

throughout the geological column are marine except in 

much of Sumatra (especially the central and western 

parts), central and western Java, and southeastern 

Kalimantan, where coal and lignite deposits occur in some 

Tertiary strata. These should be investigated for lignitic or 

sandstone uranium deposits. In the mobile belts of the 

larger islands mentioned above, carbonaceous shales and 

other strata are invaded by granites, and uranium-bearing 

disseminated deposits or veins may occur in or near the 

granite bodies.

Libya has moderate to high uranium potential. There 

are two extensive basins in southern Libya, the Murzuk 

and Kufrah Basins, which contain continental facies ranging in age from Cambrian through Cretaceous. For example, continental Carboniferous sediments, similar to the 

uraniferous Carboniferous of Niger (to the south), are 

located on the flanks of the Murzuk Basin.

Madagascar has a moderate potential for the discovery 

of additional uranium resources. Such uranium would 

probably be discovered in the Antsirabe area in the 

Neogene lacustrine basin; in the Fort Dauphin area 

(uranotherianite); and in the Karroo sedimentary areas of 

the west and northwestern parts of the country.

Mali probably has moderate uranium potential. It 

could occur in veins similar to the Algerian vein deposits of 

the Hoggar (Ahaggar) in the Adrar des Iforas region of 

northeastern Mali. It is also possible that uranium could be 

found in the continental clastic facies of the CambroOrdovician, Carboniferous and Cretaceous Systems. 

There are large areas underlain by such rocks. A stratiform

occurrence of uranium has been discovered on the south 

side of the Hoggar massif in Algeria at the base of the 

Cambro-Ordovician Tassili Series, and also in Cretaceous 

continental sandstones at Azelik in Niger.

Mexico has a moderate to high potential for additional 

uranium resources. The known uranium deposits occur in 

Mexico as dissemination and fracture fillings in volcanic 

rocks, at the eastern edge of the Sierra Madre Occidental, 

and in sandstone beds of the Gulf Coastal Plain. Large 

areas of Mexico are covered by acid volcanic rocks and 

these should be examined for further deposits of the 

disseminated type. Also, in addition to the continental 

sediments of the Pacific Gulf Coast, marginal marine and 

continental sediments occur in many of the states of 

Mexico and these should be studied, especially as many of 

them are spatially related to good source rocks.

Uranium exploration has been in progress in Mexico 

since 1957 and activity has recently been substantially 

increased. The Institute Nacional de Energia Nuclear 

(INEN), which is responsible for all exploration, is active 

in many areas, in particular the states of Tamaulipas and 

Chihuahua. The geology is favourable and the areas so 

large that increased exploration is justified.

Morocco is thought to have moderate uranium potential. Prospecting was carried out in the country first by the 

Commission d'Energie Atomique (CEA) and later by 

SOMAREM (a joint Moroccan-French-American company) 

beginning in 1946 and terminating in 1956. Pitchblende occurrences were discovered at Azegour in 1949 and uranium 

mineralization has been discovered in various granites. 

Several Hercynian granitic intrusions of the Atlas are considered to be "fertile" (uraniferous). Radioactivity was 

noted in association with cobalt ores at Bou Azzer. 

Uranium mineralization occurs in the Permian formations 

at Beni Maden, apparently associated with lead, zinc, and 

copper. Upper Jurassic sandstones of the Middle and High 

Atlas regions are anomalously radioactive locally. 

Uranium is also present in the marine phosphate deposits 

of Morocco.

Mozambique has a moderate potential for the 

discovery of uranium resources. Refractory uranium 

minerals are abundant in Precambrian rocks but it is 

doubtful if much uranium could be recovered from such 

sources. The occurrences suggest, however, that the 

Precambrian is somewhat "fertile" and that vein or 

unconformity-related uranium occurrences could have 

been formed within the country under the proper geological conditions. A good possibility for finding uranium 

is in the Karroo Series in the western part of Mozambique, 

where the stratigraphic successions seem quite similar to 

the Karroo of South Africa, Zambia, and Madagascar in 

which there are numerous uranium occurrences.

Nigeria probably has moderate potential for the 

discovery of uranium resources. Past exploration by the

Nuclear Raw Materials 127
United Kingdom found pyrochlore occurrences in granite 

in Kano Province and in the Jos Plateau. It should be 

noted, however, that these are refractory in nature. A 

private company conducted airborne radiometric surveys 

in the Sokoto Basin and found some anomalies. No information is available concerning follow-up work. The 

"Younger Granites" which intrude the Precambrian, and 

the Jurassic (?) alkaline ring dike complexes seem to be 

uraniferous (up to 120 ppm). Vein occurrences associated 

with these "Younger Granites" are being explored in Chad 

at the present time. Cretaceous continental sediments are 

present in the eastern and northwestern parts of the country. Uranium occurrences are known at Azelik in Niger in 

the same sequences.

Pakistan has a moderate potential for additional 

uranium resources. The most favourable environment in 

Pakistan for the formation of uranium deposits is in the 

sandstones, siltstones, and conglomerates (with some interbedded clays) of the Siwalik System. These beds are 

traced across the northern part of the Indus Basin, and 

down its west side, almost to Karachi. The age ranges from 

upper Miocene to Pleistocene. Similar beds of equivalent 

age occur in the Makran Coast Range. In northern 

Pakistan, Carboniferous "Karakorum" shales outcrop extensively. These carbonaceous shales may bear syngenetic 

uranium deposits similar to those of the Alum shales of 

Scandinavia, or, where invaded by granitic rocks, vein or 

disseminated deposits might be induced.

Peru has a moderate potential for additional uranium 

resources. There are no known uranium deposits in Peru 

but this is probably a result of the low level of exploration 

activity and the limited knowledge of the geology of the 

country. Uranium does occur in association with exploitable deposits of silver, copper, lead, and zinc that are 

already being mined. The Mesozoic continental sediments, 

in particular those of the sub-Andean belt, together with 

Permian sediments along the Maranon-MantaroApurimac-Urubamba geanticline and the Tertiary red bed 

sediments of the sub-Andean region appear to be 

favourable hosts for uranium deposits. There is also some 

potential for disseminated and vein deposits in the Cordillera Oriental and along the eastern slopes of the Andes.

An initial three- to five-year plan has been begun in 

order to define the sedimentary areas most favourable for 

uranium exploration. The IAEA is participating in this 

programme.

Saudi Arabia has a moderate potential for uranium 

resources. In the Arabian Shield area of Saudi Arabia, 

disseminations in granitic and syenitic rocks are the most 

likely types of uranium deposits to be found particularly 

in pegmatitic facies, or in carbonatites and fenites 

associated with alkaline or peralkaline rocks, where they

may be associated with niobium. The Phanerozoic succession is almost entirely marine, except for a few, mainly 

thin, nonmarine beds in the Permo-Triassic.

The areas mapped as Nubian sandstones might also be 

looked at, unless the arid conditions there preclude the 

possibility of mining and milling. Also, the Neogene 

deposits, especially in northeastern Saudi Arabia, may 

contain favourable continental beds; the less arid parts of 

desert basins should be investigated for possibility of 

uraniferous calcrete deposits.

Somalia is thought to have moderate uranium potential. The Bur area may have some possibilities for finding 

additional uranium deposits but it should be realized that 

the uranium minerals discovered to date are refractory in 

nature. Nevertheless, the best possible region for finding 

additional uranium deposits is probably the Mudugh 

which is underlain by favourable rocks of the Merca 

Series. Carnotite deposits are present in "calcrete-type" 

deposits in this Series. Much of the Mudugh Plateau is 

unexplored.

Sudan probably has a moderate possibility for finding 

uranium resources. At present, several international companies are engaged in uranium exploration, and uranium 

minerals (torbernite and uraninite) have been identified in 

Precambrian schists and conglomerate. There are 

numerous similar areas of granitic intrusions into schist in 

Sudan. Another favourable geologic environment would 

be that of the younger granite and syenite intrusives which 

exhibit ring structure. Occurrences of uranium have been 

found recently in Chad in veins cutting Tertiary "Younger 

Granites." The continental Nubian sandstones, which 

cover the northwestern part of the country, certainly are 

prospective for uranium.

Thailand has a moderate potential for uranium 

resources. The continental beds of Jurassic, and possibly 

Cretaceous, age of the Khorat Group, which is exposed 

mainly in the Khorat Plateau of northeast Thailand, appear to be the most favourable rocks for uranium deposits. 

In the southern part of peninsular Thailand there are at 

least eight basins containing lignite-bearing continental 

beds of the Tertiary Krabi Group. Source rocks of these 

sediments are probably, in part at least, gneisses and 

granites. Some of the latter are tin and tungsten bearing; 

some are anomalously radioactive so that the Tertiary 

strata should be favourable for lignitic or sandstone 

deposits, or both.

Turkey has a moderate potential for additional 

uranium resources. To date all uranium resources have 

been found in Tertiary rocks, mainly in Neogene sandstones, but also some in Eocene basal conglomerate and in 

volcanics. Numerous anomalies have been found in these, 

and in plutonic and metamorphic rocks. Past exploration

128 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
achievements should be reviewed for the purpose of 

developing a new plan for further assessment of the 

uranium potential for Turkey.

Uganda is considered to have moderate uranium 

potential. Based on the general geology of the country, it is 

thought that its southwestern part, which contains Proterozoic arenites and Mesozoic-Cenozoic volcanics and 

sediments, is the most favourable for the occurrence of 

uranium. This supposition is supported also by the fact 

that most of the radioactive anomalies found in Uganda 

are located in that region.

Venezuela has a moderate to high potential for 

uranium resources. There are no known uranium deposits 

in Venezuela, but the Precambrian rocks there, which have 

been little studied, are considered to be very interesting 

with, in particular, the possibility for discovering Proterozoic unconformity-related deposits below the Roraima 

Series. The geologic conditions above and below the subRoraima unconformity are very similar to those found in 

northern Saskatchewan, Canada, and in the Northern Territory of Australia. The Guyana massif may also contain 

economic deposits of uranium in quartz-pebble conglomerates. In addition, there is a more limited potential 

for sandstone, disseminated, and vein uranium deposits in 

the Andean areas.

Zaire is rated as having a high uranium potential. 

Uranium occurrences are known in the upper Proterozoic 

platform sediments of Katanga in the Copper Belt and 

were worked at the famous Shinkolobwe Mine. Correlatives of the middle Proterozoic uraniferous Francevillian Series of Gabon are known in Zaire. Mesozoic continental clastic sediments of the Congo Basin are thought 

to have uranium potential and the same can be inferred 

regarding the Tertiary Kalahari sands.

Zambia is believed to have a moderate to high potential for discovering additional uranium resources. Such 

resources could be found in the Katanga and Karroo 

Systems where uranium occurrences are already known. In 

the Kalahari sands both sandstone uranium deposits and 

uraniferous calcrete deposits could be found.

Zimbabwe-Rhodesia is considered to have a moderate 

potential for the discovery of uranium resources. The principal area of interest would be the northwestern one-third 

of the country, to some extent in the upper Proterozoic 

low-grade metamorphosed Lomagundi "Copper Belt 

Type" platform sediments, but more particularly in the extensive areas of poorly exposed Karroo sediments.

Factors Affecting Future Nuclear Development

First, it is important to repeat that, for those countries 

listed as having Speculative Resources of uranium, there is

no guarantee that these resources will be discovered or, if 

discovered, that they can be made available. Serious constraints may well arise on many fronts.

Restriction of access to the favourable areas for the 

purpose of exploration may come about in many ways. 

Some governments have not yet formulated a uranium 

development policy and are unsure of how to negotiate 

with international mining organizations. Governments 

that do have plans for their own nuclear power programmes are often unwilling to open their country to exploration by developers from the advanced countries until 

their own uranium needs are guaranteed. In both instances, inaction can delay the realization of the full potential of some favourable ground. Geographic constraints 

are also very great in many countries. Desert conditions 

clearly exercise grave constraints on exploration and 

development, but they can be overcome if the predicted 

rewards are progressively confirmed, as has been shown in 

Arlit, Niger. Tropical jungle or rain forest conditions are 

even more difficult to overcome and in both desert and 

jungle the time required for exploration and development 

is very much greater than it is in regions with more accessible and milder terrain. Inadequacies in uranium exploration techniques and the lack of trained manpower in many 

countries will be an obvious and serious constraint for 

many years. Conflicts in land use where discoveries have 

been already made is an obvious problem, not only in 

developing countries but in other countries where such 

constraints, publicized by environmental groups, have 

delayed systematic and well programmed development. 

The incentive to explore will be strongly influenced by the 

forecasts of market prices for uranium. Although showing 

a spectacular rise between 1974 and 1976, uranium prices 

have since levelled off, so that in the last two years the rate 

of rise of uranium prices has not matched the world inflation rate. If this continues, it will be an increasing constraint on exploration.

Many areas favourable for uranium discoveries are 

obviously in developing countries, many of which do not 

have the resources to adequately evaluate their potential. 

Compared to the more industrialized countries, the extent 

of exploration effort in most developing countries is very 

small. Increased assistance to such countries for the 

development of uranium resources should contribute to 

their economic development. Increased international and 

bilateral cooperation between industrially advanced countries and developing countries, and the encouragement of 

investment by industrial companies or by joint ventures, 

would enhance the exploration and production of uranium 

resources in the developing countries. Such actions would 

also contribute to the mutual satisfaction of the power requirements of both developed and developing countries in 

the 21st Century.

Nuclear Raw Materials 129
Another factor that should be considered as the 21st 

Century approaches is that at present approximately 85 

percent of the world's Reasonably Assured and Estimated 

Additional Resources of uranium are in Australia, 

Canada, France (and French controlled sources), South 

Africa and the United States of America. Therefore, unless 

there is the international and bilateral cooperation 

necessary for finding and proving resources in developing 

countries, knowledge of reserves may remain incomplete 

because these countries also have very high Speculative 

Resources. In any case, the power-energy world political 

situation in the 21st Century, based on uranium-nuclear 

power, might well be very different from that of today, 

based, as it is, largely on petroleum.

CONCLUSIONS: URANIUM FOR THE 

21ST CENTURY

It is assumed that the total cumulative world demand 

for uranium to the middle of the 21st Century will be up to 

a maximum of 20 million tonnes. At the present time an 

apparent deficit, beyond known resources, of some 17 to 

18 million tonnes exists; this might be the target for the 

world's geologists and explorationists as the 21st Century 

approaches.

Thus, two principal lines of policy seem to be indicated: (1) intensification of the search for new conventional type, low-cost uranium deposits in geologically 

favourable areas of the world and (2) concentration on 

developing economically acceptable technology for 

extracting uranium from the known low-grade uranium 

sources.

The Phase I IUREP study indicates that substantial 

areas in both the industrialized and the developing countries are geologically favourable for making new discoveries of uranium deposits. Therefore, despite the many 

technical, economic, and political constraints that presently exist, the top priority must be given to exploration, 

and much of it should be done in developing countries. Exploration lead times are so great that action is required 

immediately.

The total world power-energy requirements up to the 

middle of the 21st Century are, however, so great that it 

would also be prudent to give considerable emphasis to 

research and development of improved processes for the 

recovery of uranium from low-grade sources.

Based on the evidence of the past record of both 

geologists and mineral recovery technologists there is every 

reason to be hopeful that the target for the 21st Century 

can be achieved provided that, starting immediately, sufficient effort and expenditure are employed.

REFERENCES

NEA (OECD)/IAEA, 1977, Uranium Resources, Production 

and Demand: OECD, Paris, December 1977.

NEA (OECD)/IAEA, 1978, World Uranium Potential, An International Evaluation: OECD, Paris, December 1978.

Trocki, L., and Hansen, M.V., 1979, A Description of the 

IAEA's Uranium Geology Information System: HASA Conference on Systems Aspects of Energy and Mineral 

Resources, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, July 1979.

130 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
ANNEX I

List of IAEA publications relevant to uranium subjects

(1) PROCESSING OF LOW-GRADE URANIUM ORES 

Panel Proceedings Series-STI/PUB/148 

Proceedings of a Panel held in Vienna in 1966

(2) NUCLEAR TECHNIQUES AND MINERAL RESOURCES 

Proceedings Series-STI/PUB/198 

Proceedings of a Symposium held in Buenos Aires in 

1968

(3) URANIUM EXPLORATION GEOLOGY

Panel Proceedings Series - STI/PUB/277 

Proceedings of a Panel held in Vienna in 1970

(4) THE RECOVERY OF URANIUM

Proceedings Series - STI/PUB/262

Proceedings of a Symposium held in Sao Paulo in 1970

(5) URANIUM EXPLORATION METHODS

Panel Proceedings Series -STI/PUB/334 

Proceedings of a Panel held in Vienna in 1972

(6) RADON IN URANIUM MINING

Panel Proceedings Series-STI/PUB/391

Proceedings of a Panel held in Washington, D.C. in

1973

(7) FORMATION OF URANIUM ORE DEPOSITS 

Proceedings Series -STI/PUB/374 

Proceedings of a Symposium held in Athens in 1974

(8) RECOMMENDED INSTRUMENTATION FOR URANIUM AND 

THORIUM EXPLORATION

Technical Reports Series No. 158-STI/DOC/10/158

(9) THE OKLO PHENOMENON

Proceedings Series - STI/PUB/405

Proceedings of a Symposium held in Libreville in 1975

(10) URANIUM ORE PROCESSING

Panel Proceedings Series-STI/PUB/453 

Proceedings of an Advisory Group Meeting held in 

Washington, D.C. in 1975

(11) RECOGNITION AND EVALUATION OF URANIFEROUS AREAS 

Panel Proceedings Series-STI/PUB/450 

Proceedings of a Technical Committee Meeting held in 

Vienna in 1975

(12) EXPLORATION FOR URANIUM ORE DEPOSITS 

Proceedings Series - STI/PUB/434 

Proceedings of a Symposium held in Vienna in 1976

(13) RADIOMETRIC REPORTING METHODS AND CALIBRATION IN 

URANIUM EXPLORATION

Technical Reports Series No. 174-STI/DOC/10/174

(14) DISCUSSIONS OF THE URANIUM GEOLOGY WORKING GROUPS

Technical Reports Series No. 183

Proceedings of discussions held in Sydney (IGC) in 1976

(15) GAMMA-RAY SURVEYS IN URANIUM EXPLORATION 

Technical Report Series No. 186

(16) EVALUATION OF URANIUM RESOURCES

Panel Proceedings Series - STI/PUB/507 

Proceedings of an Advisory Group Meeting held in 

Rome in 1976

(17) GEOLOGY AND EXPLORATION OF URANIUM DEPOSITS IN 

AFRICA

Panel Proceedings Series-STI/PUB/509 

Proceedings of meeting held in Lusaka, Zambia, 

November 1977 (in press)

(18) URANIUM GEOLOGY OF LATIN AMERICA 

Panel Proceedings Series

Proceedings of meeting held in Lima, Peru, December 

1978 (in press)

(19) URANIUM ORE RESERVE ESTIMATION MANUAL 

Technical Report Series (in press)

Nuclear Raw Materials 131
Discussion

H. S. Alpan

Interregional Adviser, United Nations Division of Natural Resources and Energy, Department 

of Technical Cooperation for Development

As former General Director of the Mineral Research 

and Exploration Institute of Turkey (MTA), I should like 

to congratulate the United States Geological Survey personnel on the Centenary of the Geological Survey. In taking this opportunity, I should like also to thank you for the 

technical assistance of the USGS to the MTA during the 

last 20 years in providing consultancies and training programmes and for the assistance in the establishment of new 

sections and in the strengthening of the organization. This 

cooperation between the two organizations also has 

created a good friendship among the personnel of each. On 

this very happy occasion I should like to wish all the people 

of the U.S. Geological Survey good luck and success for 

the future.

With regard to the technical papers, I should also like 

to congratulate Mr. Bender and Mr. Cameron on the excellent presentations of their very interesting papers which 

I enjoyed hearing.

There is a great need for natural resources in the 

future, that is to say, in the 21st Century. Yet I believe that 

if we consider the whole world with regard to natural 

resources exploration, we have literally only scratched the 

surface of the Earth. In fact, most areas have been only 

superficially surveyed. We not only have to know the 

Earth's surface but we also have to explore in depth from 

the surface of the Earth, that is, down to 1,000 meters.

Geologic prospecting and exploration are difficult in 

many parts of the Earth. Some areas are covered by sea, 

lakes, swamps, forests, or thick vegetation; some areas are 

very broken up by tectonic forces and, in some cases, this 

rough terrain handicaps exploration work. For instance, 

most of eastern Turkey is covered by a lava layer about 80 

m (200 ft) thick, which currently prevents mineral 

prospecting and exploration. Therefore, in general, there is 

a need for improved exploration techniques and methods 

and for larger equipment and more sensitive instrumentation. Then more thorough prospecting and exploration of 

our natural resources could proceed under varying 

conditions.

Controversy always surrounds calculations of world 

resources based on figures from our present information 

collection systems. In order to maintain cumulative data 

for evaluation and thus produce sound and reliable information, it is essential that a world-wide Data Center be 

established. At such a Center it would be possible to collect 

all available scientific information, such as geological and

geophysical data. Then digital commodity maps, such as a 

world oil map, a world coal map, or a world uranium map 

could be prepared by evaluating all the geoscience data 

stored in the computer systems. It might be possible to indicate new geologically favourable areas on these maps by 

interpretation of statistical data. Possibly this sound information and these digital commodity maps could also serve 

for making long-term national programming, as well as indicating national or international investment possibilities 

for states or private enterprises. Such maps could be revised about every 5 years for that purpose. World-wide 

cooperation in free collection of data is, of course, requisite for the success of such a Geodata Center.

Coal: With resources of 12,000 billion tons, coal seems 

to be the world's most promising energy resource for the 

next century and may meet world demands for the next 100 

to 130 years. However, there is still a lot of work to be 

done to prove these resources and also to discover new coal 

or lignite resources in lesser known parts of the Earth, 

especially to explore underground coal or lignite seams. As 

coal and lignite are the most plentiful of the known 

resources, it is important to make full use of coal. That in 

turn means that technology for the utilization of coal by 

gasification and liquefaction becomes very important. 

That is to say, many coal projects and new investments and 

much drilling equipment is needed.

Oil: The present known world oil reserves of 260 

billion tons of recoverable resources, of which 90 million 

tons have been proven, are just about enough for the next 

20 to 40 years. The discovery of new oil fields, therefore, is 

the most important aspect of work that geoscientists can 

do now for the world's future. There is always a tendency 

to explore in the vicinity of well-known oil producing 

areas. Although that is normal procedure in this type of exploration, I feel that it is time to try to discover new oil 

fields outside the well-known onshore and offshore areas 

by using the most advanced exploration technology and 

geoscience.

The industrial world and all mankind are facing 

serious energy shortages. It is therefore necessary for all 

nations to combine their efforts and to cooperate in the 

discovery of new oil fields. In this respect, a broader 

outlook, complete cooperation, and civilized understanding are essential. We have to consider not only one nation's 

need but those of all mankind.

132 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Geothermal Energy: The present geothermal energy 

contribution of 1,500 MW of electricity and 6,500 MW 

equivalent of nonelectricity is insignificant. We must 

assume that there is hidden potential energy stored 

underground and we must use improved methodology and 

technology to study and identify such hidden energy 

sources, including possibilities in the volcanic areas. In this 

respect, volcanology studies may prove useful. Also, dry 

hot rock technology should be pursued.

Uranium: Based on differing figures, known world 

uranium reserves are said to range from 2.25 to 6 million 

tons. Assuming the larger identification is correct, the projected world demand for 23 million tons in the 21st Century leaves a 17-million-ton gap. If we then consider that 

only about 3 million tons of uranium have been discovered 

in the past 30 or 40 years, we may assume that it will be 

very difficult to close the demand-supply gap perhaps 

almost impossible. However, it is also possible to make 

new discoveries in the less known areas. Years ago, there 

was a gold rush and, according to my interpretation, there 

was also a uranium rush in 1940 and again in the 1950s. 

Now what we need is another uranium rush in the coming 

years.

I feel that some national governments do not give high 

priority to uranium exploration; first, because they do not 

have a programme for nuclear power plants; second, 

because they consider uranium a strategic commodity and 

not a commercial commodity that will meet the immediate 

economic needs of the country and, third, because some of 

these countries lack professional workers and equipment.

In the case of the question put forward by Mr. 

Cameron, that is, whether we should concentrate our efforts only on the discovery of new uranium resources or 

whether we should confine ourselves only to up-grading 

the already known low-grade ores, I should like to say that 

we are not in a position to make choices. We should explore and discover new ore deposits as well as evaluate the 

known low-grade uranium resources.

To achieve the aim of closing the foreseen gap, it is 

necessary:

1. To draw the attention of the governments to the 

importance of uranium exploration and training;

2. To give high priority to long-term national exploration programmes;

3. To prepare training programmes for national professionals;

4. To ensure cooperation for the exchange and collection of information amongst nations and international organizations;

5. To further the improvement of exploration 

technology and to introduce new and more precise 

instruments for the detection and evaluation of 

deeper zones;

6. To promote extensive technological research for 

the concentration and evaluation of low-grade 

uranium ores by the International Atomic Energy 

Agency or by countries having advanced 

technology or to establish an entirely new international research center specifically for this purpose.

With regard to nuclear energy sources, it is, of course, 

also necessary to consider thorium resources. The improvement of reactor building technology and the introduction of fast breeders may open the way for the introduction and use of thorium in nuclear-energy production, thus possibly closing the nuclear fuel gap. Thorium 

exploration and evaluation, in this respect, should not be 

neglected.

Conclusion: In closing, I should like to point out, once 

again, that there are of course potential resources but, 

also, that a tremendous task lies ahead for us to identify 

these resources and to make them recoverable, proven 

reserves. In addition we must discover new resources and 

reserves. To evaluate what nature provides for us is, 

therefore, an urgent matter of time, money, skill, effort 

and close cooperation amongst nations and international 

organizations. There is plenty of work, not only for 

geologists, but also for all geoscientists who will be required to accomplish this great task of putting the potential resources of nature into the service of mankind.

H. S. Alpan

Interregional Adviser

Division of Natural Resources and Energy

Department of Technical Cooperation for Development

1 United Nations Plaza, Room DC 866

New York, New York 10017

Discussion 133
Discussion

V. E. McKelvey

U.S. Geological Survey

Let me begin by thanking Dr. Bender and Dr. 

Cameron for their kind remarks about the U.S. Geological 

Survey and especially for their comprehensive and 

authoritative analyses of their respective subjects. Both 

speakers have submitted much longer and more detailed 

papers for publication in the proceedings of this symposium than could be presented here. We thank them on 

the one hand for making the fuller versions available for 

the record and on the other hand for their good efforts in 

summarizing their salient points here today.

I sympathize with the great uncertainties expressed by 

Dr. Cameron with respect to the projections as to future 

demand for uranium. Not only are there ordinary uncertainties encountered in making forecasts of future consumption and these are difficult enough but there are 

two others that are extraordinary. The first relates to the 

public's appraisal of the risks associated with nuclear 

energy, posing the very real question as to whether or not 

the public will wish or permit any significant production of 

nuclear energy, regardless of what may be the shortage 

from other sources. The second question is an extension of 

the first, namely will the breeder reactor which holds the 

potential for a many-fold increase in the fuel value of 

uranium be judged safe enough for development, and if 

so can it be brought into commercial use in time to effect a 

significant reduction in the demand for uranium ore. 

Depending on the outcome of these uncertainties, the 

future demand for uranium might be less than the high 

forecast, but I am inclined to agree with Dr. Cameron that 

it is prudent for geologists to assume that the opposite will 

be true and to take the high demand forecast as a target for 

exploration. Inasmuch as geologic research and exploration costs are usually only a small fraction of development 

and production costs, such an assumption will not be costly to the public if it proves unwarranted.

Although the gap between known, recoverable 

uranium resources and the high forecast of cumulative demand to the middle of the next century is huge - calling for 

the discovery of about 6 to 9 times as much ore as is now 

known I am impressed that uranium geologists have been 

able to identify as targets for exploration speculative 

resources several times larger than those already known. 

For many minerals the most imaginative estimates of undiscovered resources fall into a much lower ratio with 

respect to known deposits. The demand for uranium, 

however, is still relatively new compared to many other

minerals and perhaps exploration targets are easier to identify for uranium than for minerals long sought after. This 

is supported by Ralph Erickson's estimate based on the 

crustal abundance method that I suggested some years 

ago that world potential recoverable resources of 

uranium may be on the order of 90 million tons. Dr. 

Cameron stressed that the speculative estimates he 

reported should not be used for planning purposes and 

even more caution is called for in the use of the estimate 

based on crustal abundance. What is significant is that 

there are reasonable bases for suggesting that undiscovered 

minable deposits remain to be found and that further exploration is worthwhile.

This observation also applies to all of the fossil fuels 

and to geothermal energy, as Dr. Bender has indicated. 

Even with respect to petroleum, which, as Dr. Bender indicated, is a more fully explored resource than most 

others, undiscovered resources have a potential that 

justifies exploration. And, as the recent discoveries in 

Mexico show, in some areas the undiscovered potential 

may prove to be larger than can be "guesstimated" now. As 

earth scientists, we can see both challenge and opportunity 

for years to come in adding to usable resources through 

research and exploration. But we cannot think that success 

in our efforts alone will satisfy future world needs for 

energy. Dr. Bender has pointed out how much more quickly our fossil fuels will be depleted if consumption grows at 

4 percent annually instead of remaining at present rates. I 

like to put this in even more dramatic terms by pointing 

out that a billion-year supply of anything, if used at present rates, would be exhausted in a mere 584 years if used 

instead at only a 3 percent rate of annual increase. Clearly, 

help in meeting our energy needs for the future must come 

also from other sources, in particular from the development of the means to achieve more efficient and conservative use of energy, to use other forms of energy that are 

now beyond economic reach, and to stabilize world population. Nevertheless, research and exploration do have 

major contributions to make in meeting future needs for 

resources if they are vigorously pursued.

V. E. McKelvey

510 Runnymeade Road

St. Cloud, Florida 32769

134 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Problems of Energy Development in India 

During the 21st Century

T. N. Basu

Chief of Geology and Drilling, Central Mine Planning and Design Institute, Ltd., India

INTRODUCTION

It has been estimated that man has consumed about 18 

quintillions of energy (Q = 2.93xl014 kWh = 2.52x 1017 

kcal) from the 1st Century A.D. until the middle of the 

20th Century and that half of this energy has been used 

during the last 100 years alone (Kashkari, 1975). 

Moreover, it has been estimated that the total energy requirements of the world will accelerate to 100 Q during the 

next century (Majumdar, 1979).

Independently, a United Nations Committee has estimated that the known reserves of energy are only on the 

order of 24 Q. Even taking into account the possible, probable, marginal, and submarginal fuels, the world's total 

energy resources may not exceed 50 Q. It is, therefore, evident that man will run short of conventional energy fuels 

by the middle of the next century.

The current energy crisis has, therefore, been a blessing in disguise for the world community as a whole. It has 

afforded an unique opportunity for individual nations to 

have a closer look at indigenous resources as well as to 

assess and harness any new energy sources that may substitute for fossil fuels. There is a growing realisation that 

the future of mankind will depend, not on one or two 

energy sources, but on a "basket" of them. Energy is 

available everywhere in a variety of forms, and sooner or 

later it should be possible to exploit that variety in a manner suited to the needs of all people.

It is in this context that we present an outline of 

India's energy resources and the problems and challenges 

of the energy situation that we will meet in the next 

century.

AVAILABILITY OF ENERGY RESOURCES

Commercial Energy

India is among the few countries in the world that is 

endowed with coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear fissionable 

material and hydel (hydroelectric) potential. The presently 

known quantity of commercial energy sources is given in 

table 1.

Coal: Estimates of the resource position indicate that 

coal will make a significant contribution not only to our 

growing needs for direct energy but also to the gas,

Table 1 Known quantities of nonrenewable and renewable 

commercial energy sources in India, 1978 

[Indian coal has an average heat value of 5,000 kilocalories 

per kilogram.]

RESOURCE PROVED

Nonrenewable 

Coal (metric tonnes) _ 26,300 

Lignite 

(metric tonnes) _ 1,870 

Oil (metric tonnes) __ 1,500 

Natural gas 

(billion m3 )

Nuclear 

(billion kWh)

Renewable 

Hydel (billion kWh) _ _____

ESTIMATED 

POTENTIAL TOTAL

85,500 111,800

230 2,100 

4,700 6,200

6,500

2,200,000

___ 700

COAL EQUIVi ALENT IN 

M. TONNES

) 112,850 

12,400 

11,700

2,200,000

700

chemical, and metallurgical industries. The major 

workable coal deposits occur in two stratigraphic horizons: 

(1) the Lower Gondwanas of Permian age, and (2) the coal 

and lignite deposits of Tertiary age (fig. 1). About 97 percent of the reserves occur in the Gondwana deposits of 

peninsular India.

A 1978 estimate (India, Geological Survey) puts the 

resources at 114 billion tonnes of coal and lignite in seams 

more than 0.5 metres thick, occurring to a depth of 1,200 

metres. Of this, a total reserve resource of 88,527 million 

tonnes has been estimated in seams 1.2 metres or more in 

thickness, occurring to a depth of 600 metres, which are 

currently regarded as workable. Of these 88,527 million 

tonnes, only 30 percent is under the "proved" category 

(Geological Survey of India, 1971). The balance will have 

to be established for exploitation by further exploration.

Oil and Gas: Sedimentary basins occupy an area of 

about 1.4 million square kilometres (about 42 percent of 

India's total land area). Additionally, the offshore 

sedimentary basins have an area of 0.32 million square 

kilometres with a water cover to 200 metres deep (fig. 2). 

Altogether the prospective areas in the basins occupy 1.0 

million square kilometres onshore and 0.32 million square 

kilometres offshore.

Prasad's 1977 studies indicate that the undiscovered 

resources in place are on the order of 6.20 billion tonnes of 

oil and 6,500 billion cubic metres of gas, equivalent to 6.50 

billion tonnes of oil. Including the offshore areas, 59 percent of the potential occurs in the western part of the country, 38 percent in the eastern part, and 3 percent in the

Energy Development in India 135
34° —

32° -

30° —

76°

PERMIAN (Lower Gondwana)

1. Damodar Valley

2. Koel Valley

3. Sone Valley

4. Mahanadi Valley

5. Godavary Valley 

a. Wardha Valley 

b. Singareni area

6. Satpura Basin

7. Rajmahal

8. Deogarh Hazaribagh Group

9. Darjeeling and N.E.F.A.

EOCENE (coal fields)

10. Garo Hills

11. Khasi Jaintia Hills

12. Mikir Hills

13. Jammu

EOCENE (lignite fields)

14. Rajasthan Palana 15. Gujarat (Kutch)

OLIGOCENE THROUGH PLEISTOCENE

16. Upper Assam 17. Neyveli Lignite 18. Kashmir Lignite

Figure 1 Location of major workable coal and lignite deposits in India.

136 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
fe A NG L A DESH.)'.^ OIMP'HAL

<££ r'

^ \5/

92°

| | - - - - PRECAMBRIANBASEMCNT TECTONISED

SEDIMENTS

EXPLANATION

I- ••."•'! OFF SHORE] &ASINS KNOWN TO BE HYDROCARBON

- - - - BASINS OF INDETERMINATE PROSPECTS

- — — — BASINS NOT KNOWN TO HAVE 

GENERATED HYDROCARBONS

|| | || OFFSHORE] BASINS KNOWN TO HAVE GENERATED 

? HYDROCARBONS BUT COMMERCIALLY

[SI ON LAND J NOT YET ESTABLISHED

Figure 2 Onshore and offshore sedimentary basins of India.

BEARING ON A COMMERCIAL SCALE

BATHYMETRIC CONTOURS 

IMPORTANT DRILLED WELLS 

OIL GAS FIELDS

Energy Development in India 137
northern part. The prognostic recoverable reserves are, 

however, estimated at 1.5 billion tonnes of oil and 4,500 

billion cubic metres of gas. Of this, the location of nearly 

0.5 billion tonnes has been established so far. The present 

annual production of oil is about .011 billion tonnes. So 

far as gas is concerned, recoverable reserves amounting to 

160 billion cubic metres have been established. Of this, 

about 15 billion cubic metres of gas have been produced so 

far. The current production of gas is on the order of about 

2.6 billion cubic metres of which about 40 percent is flared.

Nuclear Energy: Reasonably assured uranium reserves 

in India are on the order of 22,000 tonnes U3O8 with an additional inferred reserve of 24,000 tonnes U3O8 . Besides, 

there are thorium reserves of about 0.45 million tonnes, 

which are the largest in the world. The presently known 

proved and inferred reserves of uranium would support 

only 10,000 megawatts of installed nuclear capacity for 30 

years, based on the current type of nuclear reactors. If fast 

breeder reactors are operating by the turn of the century, 

the potentially available energy from the presently known 

proved and inferred reserves of uranium would increase 

substantially to support 1,000,000 megawatts of installed 

capacity for 30 years (yielding energy amounting to 

200 xlO3 billion kilowatt hours of electricity) and that 

from the thorium reserves would be practically unlimited 

generating electricity to the amount of 2.0xlO6 billion 

kilowatt hours (Fuel Policy Committee, 1974). The currently installed nuclear capacity is about 640 megawatts 

annually.

Hydroelectric Power: Based on a 1953-58 survey, 

India's total hydroelectric potential was estimated at 41,155 

megawatts at 60 percent load factor (Fuel Policy Committee, 1974). This potential is distributed in the different 

regions of the country as shown in figure 3 and table 2.

Table 2 Estimated hydroelectric potential of India by region

REGION I

Eastern

Northern

Western

Southern _

Northeastern _

Total __

MW AT 60% 

.OAD FACTOR

2,694

10,731

7,189

8,097

12,464

41,155

BILLION

kWh

14.2

56.4

37.8

42.6

65.4

216.4

PERCENT OF 

TOTAL POTENTIAL

6.5

26.1

17.4

19.7

30.3

100.0

There is scope for possible upward revision of the 

potential in the Himalayan area (region 2, table 2). In fact, 

investigations carried out by some of the Northern States 

have shown that the potential is likely to be much higher. 

Moreover, the "seasonal" energy potential that would be 

available largely at the sites of the multi-purpose projects 

in peninsular India has not been included in the above 

estimate. In view of these additional factors, a later 

estimate puts the potential at 80,000 megawatts at 60 percent load factor (Parik, 1976). Of this, only about 11 percent (9,000 megawatts) has been developed and capacity 

for another 5,600 megawatts is under development. Thus a

total potential of 14,600 megawatts is likely to be 

developed by the end of the Sixth Plan Period (1982-83).

Noncommercial Sources of Energy

Over 75 percent of India's population lives in villages 

where enormous quantities of firewood, vegetable waste, 

and cow dung are burnt for the supply of domestic energy. 

(The rural energy economy is also largely nonmonetised.) 

Even today about half of the total energy consumed in the 

country comes from such sources. This undisciplined fuel 

consumption brings in its trail indiscriminate deforestation 

that leads in turn to the removal of precious top 

soil along with large quantities of plant food and to the 

silting of river beds and storage reservoirs. It deprives the 

soil of valuable organic manure as well.

Firewood: About 23 percent of India's land mass is 

forestland: less than the desired goal of 33 percent. The 

estimated potential of wood is not more than 2,000 million 

tonnes. The reckless use of this free forest wealth by the 

rural population for domestic energy requirements has not 

only created a serious ecological imbalance but has also set 

in motion the process of desertification. This hazardous 

trend must be checked, and to achieve this objective it is 

essential that social forestry be adopted on a wide scale, as 

recommended by the National Commission on 

Agriculture.

Cow Dung: With a large cattle population (230 million 

head as per 1966 census), cow dung is an important potential source of energy for the production of both improved 

fuel in the form of bio-gas, and as fertilizer. The estimated 

annual production of dry dung was 170 million tonnes in 

1966 which increased to 324 million tonnes in 1975-76. The 

present estimated production of dry dung is on the order of 

350 million tonnes per annum (equivalent to 1,750 million 

tonnes of wet dung). This is capable of generating 70 

billion cubic metres of gas annually in bio-gas processing 

plants. Even if only 25 percent of this is really available 

(keeping in view the limitation of collection and 

utilisation), the potential gas generation could be on the 

order of 17.5 billion cubic metres. This is equivalent to 9.6 

billion cubic metres of natural gas. With higher utilisation 

of cow dung, the actual potential would be much higher.

Vegetable Waste (Bagasse): This includes sawdust, 

paddy husk, coconut shells, dry leaves, and other vegetable 

refuse. There is not likely to be any constraint in its 

availability in view of the projected increase in our 

agricultural output. Its consumption as fuel was about 38 

million tonnes in 1970-71. Plant residues from the biomass 

such as bagasse, which is widely used as fuel, can be even 

better utilized, both in the domestic and in the industrial 

sectors at sugar mills, for instance. About 14 percent of 

all sugar cane that is crushed in India is produced as 

bagasse, and its availability as fuel was estimated at 14 

million tonnes in 1973-74.

138 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
A x.^'

\

EXPLANATION

HYDRO CONCENTRATION

RIVERS

INTER-NATIONAL BOUNDARY

INTER-STATE BOUNDARY

I N D I A N

Figure 3 Distribution of hydroelectric resources of India by region.

Energy Development in India 139
Nonconventional Sources of Energy

These sources include solar energy, geothermal 

energy, tidal power, and windmills. Such resources are 

either renewable or virtually inexhaustible and are nonconventional in the sense that they are not yet in 

widespread commercial use.

Solar Energy: In a tropical country like India where 

the SUB sMnes brilliantly for nearly 300 days in the year, 

the harnessing of solar energy has tremendous potential. 

The average intensity of solar radiation received on the 

ground in India is some 600 calories per square centimetre 

per day or about 10 billion kilowatt hours per square 

kilometre per year. This works out to an energy delivery 

equal to 2.5 million kilowatt hours per square kilometre 

per day. Even with only 10 percent efficiency of conversion 

to electricity, this would mean that each square kilometre 

would yield 0.25 million kilowatt hours per day. Total 

generation of electricity in 1979-80 is expected to be on the 

order of 112 billion kilowatt hours. Conceivably this could 

be generated from solar energy received in an area of about 

1,120 square kilometres, that is about 0.035 percent of 

India's total land area of 3.2 million square kilometres. 

The potential is, therefore, enormous.

Solar energy can be either (1) harnessed directly as 

thermal energy, or (2) converted to electricity through the 

photovoltaic process, or (3) converted to biomass as fuel 

by stimulating biological processes. Significant developments have already taken place in all these areas. Applications of solar energy include water heating, desalinization 

of sea water, food drying, cooking, manufacture of salt, 

energizing of solar cells, refrigeration, air conditioning, 

water pumping, and conversion through plants into liquid 

and solid transportable fuels.

Geothermal Energy: Hot springs, which are sources of 

geothermal energy, occur in four regions of the country. 

But out of a total of 253 springs, only 103 have a 

temperature above 37° C. Although the total power 

generation potential is negligible, some of the sources are 

in advantageous localities, as in the northwest in the northern latitudes. This geothermal potential cannot possibly be 

ignored in the northwest, but it will not, however, have any 

impact on the nation's overall energy requirement.

Tidal Power: Despite the fact that India has a very 

long coastline, there is potential for power generation in 

only three areas, where the tidal range exceeds about 5 

metres. The total potential may not exceed about 1,000 

megawatts and the actual energy that can be exploited 

economically would be much less. Therefore, this also will 

not have any significant impact on our overall energy 

requirement.

Windmills: Extensive windmill data available in the 

Indian Meteorological Department from over 400 

meteorological stations indicate that such mills can be installed in certain parts of the country where wind speeds

over 10 kilometres per hour are prevalent; for example in 

parts of the coastal regions, Rajasthan, Gujarat, 

Maharashtra and Karnataka. Studies at Hindustan 

Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) indicate that 10,000 kilowatt 

hours of electricity can be generated annually at stations 

with an annual mean wind speed of 13 to 17 kilometres per 

hour (Krishnan, 1976). Those with wind speeds of 9.5 to 

12.5 kilometres per hour and 6.5 to 9.5 kilometres per hour 

are estimated as likely to generate 8,000 kilowatt hours and 

4,500 kilowatt hours a year respectively. Today, the wind 

power used is insignificant compared to that from other 

conventional energy sources. Windmills can become a 

significant source of pollution-free energy production in 

rural India, particularly in the tracts where there is a potential for development of water pumping systems for irrigation. So far the problems of cost and energy storage have 

prevented full-scale development of wind power.

Chemical Sources

A major thrust in research and development efforts 

has been directed toward assessing the potential in 

chemical sources of energy, particularly of those that could 

lead to reduced dependence on petroleum products like 

motor gasoline, high speed diesel oil (HSDO), and 

kerosene. Nonconventional sources of energy are also 

being evaluated. The potential R&D areas that have been 

identified are

1. Battery-powered vehicle (initially based on leadacid battery technology)

2. Development of fuel cells for rural electrification 

including

a. The sodium sulphur battery 

b. The metal air cell 

c. The H2O2 cell 

d. The lithium cell

PLANNING FOR PRODUCTION OF COMMERCIAL 

ENERGY UP TO THE YEAR 2000

Long-term forecasting of energy requirements is beset 

with difficulties, and besides, such a forecast is not likely 

to be accurate because of unforeseen circumstances 

political, economic, or social. However, an attempt has 

been made to forecast the likely requirements for commercial energy up to the year 2000. No attempt has been made 

to forecast non-commercial energy requirements by 2000 

A.D. in view of the possibility that any production rise in 

this sphere is not likely and may even come down with the 

passage of time as conventional sources penetrate the rural 

sector.

Figures on the actual production of commercial energy 

in 1973-74 and 1978-79 and the production programme 

envisaged up to the year 2000 are based on formal and informal estimates, as shown in table 3.

140 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Table 3 Production figures for commercial energy in India, 

1973 to 2000

[Oil and gas production in the first year column is given only 

for the 1973 calendar year and the hydel and lignite figures for 

1978-79 are provisional.]

SOURCES

Coal (M.T.)

Lignite (M.T.)

Oil (M.T.)

Gas (billion m3 )

Hydel (billion kWh)

Nuclear (billion kWh) __

1973-74

77.87

3.3

7.2

1.6

29.0

2.4

1978-79

102.06

3.9

11.0

2.6

48.0

3.2

1982-83

150.00

6.5

16.5

11.2

77.0

8.2

1987-88

208.00

10.7

22.0

15.8

89.0

8.8

1999-2000

370.00

12.0

30.0

43.6

105.0

10.5

Coal: The Working Group on Coal and Lignite, constituted by the Government of India in 1978, has estimated 

the requirement of coal up to 1987-88 and, keeping in view 

the latest trend in production, the figures have recently 

been modified to some extent. It is expected that a large 

number of projects now under construction and in which 

investment has been or is being made will yield good results 

and a high level of growth by the end of the Sixth Plan, 

that is, by 1982-83. During the Seventh Plan, the growth 

rate is likely to be less spectacular and may not exceed 7 

percent against a little more than 10 percent during the 

Sixth Plan period. With a growing economic base and 

because of difficulty in providing staff for technical infrastructure, a growth rate of 5 percent has been presumed 

during the period 1987-88 to 2000 A.D. The estimate of 

coal production thus arrived at broadly agrees with the 

estimates prepared by other authorities on the subject.

The growth rate for India has been forecast at 3.8 percent by the end of this century in "World Energy 

Resources, 1985-2020" (Petres and Schilling, 1978), and 

for the World as a whole at 2.1 percent during the first 20 

years of the 21st Century. Keeping in view the efficient 

utilisation, the conservation, and the large investments 

that are required, the same growth rate of 2 percent has 

been assumed for the development of Indian coal resources 

during the next century.

Oil: Without any change in present energy policy and 

assuming a high economic growth rate, India's total requirement of oil will be on the order of 90 million tonnes 

by 2000 A.D. Assuming that 30 million tonnes of domestic 

oil will be available, the imports will be on the order of 60 

million tonnes. This will be a serious burden to the national exchequer (Rs. 1,60,000 million) assuming that present costs double by the end of the century. The country 

cannot possibly afford to spend so much in foreign exchange for oil imports. A short-term plan for oil production from already established reserves is in effect now, and 

it is expected that India's oil production will reach a level 

of 24 million tonnes in the early nineties and may reach 

about 30 million tonnes by the end of the century, thus 

limiting consumption to a level of 60 million tonnes. Keeping in view the prognostic reserves (which are still to be 

established), production may have to be pegged downward 

at a level of 30 million tonnes during the next century. So 

far as natural gas is concerned, it is proposed to raise the

present production of 2.6 billion cubic metres to as high as 

44 billion cubic metres by the end of the century. But this 

forecast for the future is, in fact, less an estimate of production and more a projection of needs. The prognostic 

reserves of gas onshore in Gujarat and Assam, in association with oil in Bombay High, and of free natural gas in 

offshore Bassein are so large that it should be possible to 

use gas for some of the purposes for which oil products 

like LPG, kerosene, fuel oil, and maybe naphtha are 

presently used. Substitution of gas for oil is proposed in 3 

stages; 25 percent by 1982-83, 30 percent by 1987-88, and 

44 percent by the year 2000. This could be achieved if concerted efforts are made from now on to work out a strategy 

for exploration and exploitation of this resource. Prognostic reserves of oil and gas suggest that the levels of production of oil and (or) gas mentioned above should be 

achievable. However, large investments are required for 

exploration, exploitation, and distribution. The alternative 

to this importing oil and oil products would mean a 

severe drain on our foreign exchange reserves. Apart from 

this, the question of availability from outside sources may 

pose a serious threat to India's economy.

Hydroelectric Power: At the beginning of India's Sixth 

Plan in April 1978, installed hydroelectric capacity was 

more than 9,000 megawatts and considering the projects 

already under execution, this capacity is likely to be little 

higher than 14,600 megawatts by the end of 1982-83. Furthermore, considering the fact that hydroelectric projects 

have long gestation periods and require heavy investments, 

it may not be possible to create capacities of more than 

16,000 to 17,000 megawatts by 1987-88 and 20,000 

megawatts by 2000 A.D. Additionally, a large hydroelectric potential exists in the northeastern region of the country, which is also earthquake prone and has a low load factor. On this basis, the availability of power from 

hydroelectric sources has been cautiously estimated.

Nuclear Energy: As outlined in the 1978-83 Draft Five 

Year Plan, nuclear capacity will be increased to 1,565 

megawatts by 1982-83 from the present level of 640 

megawatts (India, Government Publication, 1978). 

However, considering present difficulties with such 

technological problems as radiation leakage from the 

generating plants and nuclear waste disposal, nuclear 

capacity may be developed to only 2,000 megawatts by 

2000 A.D.

RESOURCES AVAILABLE AT THE BEGINNING OF 

THE 21st CENTURY

Considering the present potential of India's various 

nonrenewable resources and the probable consumption 

rate during the remaining years of the 20th Century, the 

resources available at the beginning of the 21st Century are 

estimated in the quantities indicated in table 4.

Energy Development in India 141
Table 4 Estimates of nonrenewable resources available in India 

for the 21st Century

[Coal, lignite, and oil are figured in millions of tonnes; 

natural gas in billions of cubic metres. Recovery has been 

assumed as follows: coal at 50 percent; lignite at 90 percent 

(opencast only); oil at 25 percent; gas at 70 percent.]

NONRENEWABLE 

RESOURCE

Coal _ _ .

Lignite _ _

Oil _ _

Natural Gas

TOTAL AS OF 

1979

. _ 111,800

2,100

6,200

6,500

DEPLETION 

BY 2000

9,789

225

2,340

628

BALANCE 

AS OF 2000

102,011

1,875

3,860

5,872

Estimates on both the availability and consumption of 

resources have been prepared with a bias for the 21st Century. That is, a very conservative estimate for consumption 

during the 21st Century has been assumed, while a very 

liberal view as to availability of existing resources has been 

taken. Even on the basis of these assumptions, India's coal 

resources may not last beyond the '60s of the 21st Century, 

although the prevailing and widely-held view is that such 

resources will last for about 200 years, especially for noncoking coals. Similarly, we think that oil resources are 

likely to be exhausted by the end of the first quarter of the 

century, but that gas resources may see us through the middle of the next century. The estimates are rough and the 

duration of supply may vary, depending on the rates of 

production and consumption, but the fact remains that 

these resources will be exhausted well within the 21st Century. This, therefore, highlights the need for an aggressive 

and sustained programme to develop alternative renewable 

sources of energy so that these can be widely used by the 

time the fossil fuel resources will have been largely 

exhausted.

PROBLEMS AND CHALLENGES OF ENERGY 

DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 21st CENTURY

Since energy is essential for society's sustained growth, 

demand has been rising rapidly in developing countries like 

India. However, if the present trend continues of placing 

more reliance on conventional energy, that is, the 

nonrenewable resources and higher consumption rates 

are pursued, these resources are not likely to last beyond 

the first quarter of the next century. Even with a nominal 

growth rate of 2 percent or so in the next century, our 

resources are likely to be exhausted by the 2060s. The 

magnitude of the problem in terms of conventional energy 

has to be realised, therefore, and appropriate steps have to 

be initiated without delay in order to meet the challenges of 

the 21st Century. A strategy must also be evolved for better energy management. Briefly, action is called for in the 

following areas:

1. Promote efficient development and rational use of 

finite resources and intensive search for additional 

resources other than those known presently;

2. enhance recovery percentages of the fossil fuels by 

resorting to improved technology;

3. conserve the nonrenewable resources by resorting 

to efficient exploitation and utilisation as well as 

by inter-fuel substitutions and by restricting use of 

conventional fuels to "key" sectors that cannot do 

without them;

4. develop new technology for efficient and 

economic utilisation of nuclear resources;

5. maximize our hydroelectric potential, which is a 

renewable form of conventional energy;

6. carry out intensive research and development 

work for economic commercialisation of major 

nonconventional energy sources and interlink 

these with the other forms of energy; and

7. make efficient and rational use of the noncommercial forms of energy.

By adopting some of the above measures, it will be 

possible to extend the economic life of the nonrenewable 

forms of energy. The time gained in this process must then 

be fully utilised to develop the nonconventional sources of 

energy. In this context, it may be mentioned that "although 

calendar-wise there might appear to be a great deal of time 

for this transition, technology-wise there probably is not. 

Research and development of nonconventional energy 

sources must be greatly expanded and accelerated; even if 

practical new energy sources become available before being needed, it will be far better to have them in reserve 

ready for use than to be too late" (Partridge, 1978). It 

should, therefore, be obvious that mankind will have to 

rely more on the nonconventional than on the conventional sources of energy and must opt for an efficient and 

rational use of noncommercial sources. This is particularly 

important for India since 75 percent of the population lives 

in villages and relies primarily on noncommercial energy 

for cooking and heating.

In order to develop a successful strategy for the 21st 

Century, no time should be lost in deciding the priorities, 

charting a course, and making hard decisions. For India 

and other developing countries, the following measures are 

strongly recommended:

1. Hydroelectric power, a major renewable conventional resource, should be tapped to the maximum 

in order to conserve the nonrenewable fossil fuels. 

Latest estimates placed hydel potential at 80,000 

megawatts (with 60 percent load factor). Of this, 

only about 9,000 megawatts have been tapped so 

far.

2. Noncommercial energy sources, such as firewood, 

cow dung, and vegetable waste, should be used 

efficiently and rationally for maximum fuel efficiency. The reckless use of our forest wealth to 

meet the domestic energy requirements of the 

rural population should be stopped. Moreover, 

abundant cow dung has immense potential for increased efficiency if it is processed in bio-gas

142 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
plants. Not only can it generate clean fuel, but the 

residue can be used as fertilizer. About one-fourth 

of the dung is itself consumed in the generating 

process, but there is about 20 percent more usable 

heat from the gas than is obtained by direct burning. The gas thus produced can be used both for 

cooking and lighting and has the added advantages of hygienic operation, absence of smoke and 

soot, convenience in burning, and as its 

byproduct, a rich fertilizer. There are about 

575,000 villages in the country and only about 

45,000 bio-gas plants operating today (Commerce, 1977). There is, therefore, a tremendous 

potential for development. Studies have indicated 

that community-size bio-gas plants would make 

processed cow dung our least expensive renewable 

source of energy.

3. Development of "energy plantations" on a large 

scale should be established, particularly for the 

fast growing plant species suitable for biomass 

conversion by anaerobic digestion, fermentation, 

and other biochemical processes. Biomass production of liquid and gaseous fuels, such as ethanol 

and methane could also constitute an important 

fuel source for a developing country. Sugar cane, 

an unusually high yield plant, holds a lot of potential in this regard. For instance, India, like Brazil, 

could go a long way toward reducing gasoline consumption significantly with an aggressive programme of ethanol production from sugar cane.

4. Amongst nonconventional sources, solar energy is 

the only promising source for supplementing the 

world's energy demands indefinitely. Unlike the 

finite fossil fuels, solar energy will be available for 

all time to come. This is a highly attractive 

primary source because it is available, clean, 

socially acceptable, and pollution-free. Thus solar 

energy holds immense possibilities for both lowtemperature and medium-to-high temperature applications. Low-temperature thermal conversion 

techniques are now fairly well developed and can 

be introduced in the rural sector to provide energy 

for cooking, lighting, hot water, and possibly 

for irrigation. The applicability of solar energy for 

medium- to high-temperature use in the industrial 

sector should be given the highest priority with the 

objective of eliminating dependence on the conventional sources. A technological breakthrough 

in cost reduction would have a profound impact 

on the energy needs of the 21st Century.

5. Other nonconventional energy sources like tidal, 

wind, geothermal, and chemical power should be 

harnessed to the maximum and utilised in suitable 

sectors of the economy.

6. Hydrogen, the commonest of all elements, has the 

highest energy content on a pound-for-pound 

basis of any of the fuels. It holds out immense 

prospects as a replacement for oil and natural gas 

because it can be transported by pipelines, potentially stored cheaply for years in a gaseous form or 

more expensively stored in liquid form. Hydrogen 

can be produced by thermochemical means, by 

photolysis, or by electrolysis. Moreover, solar 

energy systems "can be designed for the production of hydrogen as well as for electricity. It has 

been recently reported that hydrogen can be 

phased into energy systems of the world in a manner compatible with existing technologies and 

used to provide virtually all the needs of industrialised societies (including air-transport)" (Auer 

and others, 1978). As a universal potential source 

of energy, hydrogen will play a significant role in 

the world's future, and appropriate R&D efforts 

should be geared up right now.

7. Economic production of fusion power is one of 

the most challenging scientific and technological 

endeavours of our time. The basic nuclear fuel in 

the fusion reaction is deuterium, an isotope of 

hydrogen, which is available in sea water. The 

energy required to separate deuterium atoms from 

sea water is small and negligible compared to the 

energy released by fusion. One gram of deuterium 

can yield 10,000 kilowatt hours of energy or about 

10 million times the energy released by burning 

one gram of fossil fuel (Mathew, 1977). If this 

same fusion reaction (which releases vast amounts 

of energy in a hydrogen bomb) can be controlled, 

virtually unlimited energy can be obtained. 

Research and development work is going on in 

many institutions all over the world, and extensive 

efforts are also underway to provide the scientific/engineering base that will make the concept 

commercially viable. Furthermore, it is reported 

that vigorous and adequately funded programmes 

could bring thermonuclear fusion to the 

laboratory-reactor stage by the 1990s. The pace 

must be accelerated so that 50 years from today in 

2030, fusion power will flow into every home.

CONCLUSION

The very fact that the oil resources are likely to be exhausted by the 2020s, and the seemingly large resources of 

coal and of gas as well by the 2060s, poses a formidable 

challenge for those meeting the energy needs of the next 

century. Apart from large scale exploration that will 

establish the potential resources of the fossil fuels as early

Energy Development in India 143
as possible, all conceivable steps must be taken for conservation, efficient utilisation, interfuel substitution, improvement in mineable recovery, and development of new 

technology, in order to stretch the life of the world's fossil 

fuels. It would appear also that other forms of energy like 

solar, biomass, bio-gas, and the rest will have to play a 

significant role in meeting energy demands during the next 

century, in addition to nuclear reactors (including fast 

breeder reactors) and hydroelectric plants. Windmills and 

tidal and geothermal power should also be developed 

wherever feasible. It is imperative, moreover, that these 

newer sources be in wide use before or by the time fossil 

sources will have been largely exhausted. It must be 

remembered that any new technology, which can be 

developed commercially and made economically, environmentally and socially attractive, takes a very long 

time to make any worthwhile penetration into the energy 

scenario. Therefore, all steps, including R&D, must be 

initiated right now in order to develop and (or) perfect 

commercially viable new technologies that will give 

renewable energy sources a significant role by the end of 

this century. The matter needs concerted action by all concerned. We can ill afford to have the luxury of a casual 

approach.

Energy, which is vital to the well-being and prosperity 

of all mankind, should be treated on a global basis. It is, 

therefore, important that all the world work together for 

the sound development and use of energy. It is suggested 

that new technologies developed and (or) being developed 

by the advanced nations for the commercial use of 

renewable energy sources should be made available freely 

to the developing nations so as to facilitate selection and 

adoption of the technologies best suited to them.

Acknowledgement

The author takes this opportunity to thank Dr. B. P. 

Guha, Economist-in-Charge, Mr. B. L. Ahuja, Financial 

Planner, and Mr. B. B. P. Shrivastava, Superintending 

Geologist, CMPDI, for their constructive suggestions and 

all-round assistance in the preparation of this paper. 

Thanks are also due to Mr. N. Ahmad, Geologist, and Mr. 

C. Rao, Statistical Assistant, CMPDI, for their valuable 

cooperation. The author is grateful to Mr. A. N. Banerjee,

Chairman-cum-Managing Director, CMPDI, for his kind 

permission to present this paper at the International 

Centennial Symposium on "Resources for the Twenty-first 

Century." The views expressed in this paper are the 

author's own and are not necessarily those of CMPDI.

REFERENCES

Auer, P. L., Bos, P. B., Robberts, V. W., and Gough, W. C., 

1978, Unconventional energy resources, world energy 

resources-1985-2020: I.P.C. Science and Technology 

Press.

Commerce (annual), 1978: p. 7.

India, Geological Survey, 1978, Total reserves of coal in India in 

seams 0.5 m. and above in thickness.

India, Geological Survey, Indian standard procedure for coal 

reserve estimation: Memoir, Geological Survey of India, vol. 

88, p. 488.

India, Government Publication, 1978, Draft Five Year Plan, 

1978-1983: Government of India Publication, p. 166.

India, Government Publication, 1974, Report of the Fuel Policy 

Committee: p. 27-29.

Kashkari, C., 1975, Energy: Resources, demand and conservation, with special reference to India: Tata McGraw-Hill 

Publishing Company, Ltd., p. 8.

Krishnan, A., 1976, A case for wind power utilisation: Commerce 

(annual), p. 105-109.

Majumdar, A. K., 1979, Solar Energy II: Statesman (Delhi edition), 30th June.

Mathew, M. V., 1977, The ultimate solution: Harnessing thermonuclear fusion: Span, July, p. 40.

Parik, K., 1976, Energy (Second India Studies): Macmillan Company of India Ltd., p. 40.

Partridge, J. W., 1978, Presidential Address, World Energy Conference: I.P.C. Science and Technology Press, p. XV.

Petres, W., and Schilling, H. D., 1978, World energy resources, 

1985-2020: I.P.C. Science and Technology Press, p. 74-75.

Prasad, N. B., 1977, Future of the growth of oil production industry in India: Commerce (annual), p. 75-79.

T. N. Basu

Chief of Geology and Drilling

Central Mine Planning and Design Institute Ltd.

Gondwana Place

Ranchi-834 008 (Bihar) India

144 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
World Oil Resources: Their Assessment and 

Potential for the 21st Century

Michel Grenon '

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

Oil has acquired a dominant position with respect to 

the world energy supply. This is not due to its long term 

abundance prospects. It is because of the outstanding ease 

of its utilization, and also because of an exceptional low 

cost of production owing to exceptional geological and 

political conditions. In fact, these conditions, which led to 

the post-World War II oil boom, were restricted to a small 

region (2 percent of the world's surface area) and to a mere 

decade, the 1960s: an instant in human history.

So the reality looks like this: our civilization depends 

heavily on oil. Because of the difficulties and the time 

needed to shift to other energy sources, it is of the utmost 

importance that we assess how long the oil era will or can 

last. This paper expresses a few thoughts on the subject.

Before analyzing oil resources assessments and potential for the 21st Century, we would like to put forthcoming 

estimates in a special perspective: How much oil or liquid 

fuels will, or would, we need? This is indeed not an easy 

question. In trying to answer it, we are confronted with a 

great many uncertainties. First of all, we should know how 

many people will be on Earth 50 or 100 years from now, 

and what their life-style will be like. Although the whole 

problem is a fascinating one, we are in fact concerned here 

mainly with the specific aspect mentioned above: How 

much oil, or liquid fuels, could be needed? Basic assumptions which we have made at IIASA in order to attempt to 

give a preliminary answer are: first, that the world population will be stabilized (say, at less than 12 billion people or 

3 times the present level; possibly between 7 and 9 billion 

people); second, that energy needs also be stabilized, or increasing very slowly (this is in contrast with some other 

forecasts of ever increasing energy demand); and third, 

that oil and other liquid fuels will be reserved for transportation (there will be a limit to the number of cars and 

potential mileage), petrochemicals (but other raw 

materials, such as coal or biomass, will compete), and 

development phase of the Less Developed Countries.

It is often mentioned that "oil must be reserved for 

transportation and petrochemicals." In fact, with a progressive shift to the supply of heavier crudes, it is not clear 

what the maximum yield of light or intermediate products 

could be.

All in all, we came to a consumption figure of between 

3 and 5 billion tons of oil per year. This seems a reasonable

1 Part of this work has been performed with the support of the Electric Power Research Institute.

value. However, more of other liquid fuels (synfuels) could 

be produced and consumed because of their convenience 

or preference for them. Curiously, this consumption figure 

is also an often quoted maximum for world oil production 

supposed to occur in the 1990's (the Central Intelligence 

Agency of the United States, the Workshop on Alternative 

Energy Strategies) and in most oil companies' studies as 

shown in figure 1.

109 tons 

7-

6- 

5- 

4- 

3- 

2f

ULTIMATELY RECOVERABLE RESOURCES 

(CONVENTIONAL OIL ONLY) 300-109 tons

MODIFIED DELPHI

l_ 1 V I I U IU n L. U I L. F'^^-.^'^'^^^-^

mmzzm

1975 1985 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070

Figure 1 Potential world oil production curve, in billions of 

tons.

Our point of view for looking at the oil resources and 

(or) liquid fuels is thus to consider how long resources 

could allow a plateau of oil production and consumption 

to continue (fig. 1) and, in view of potential resources, 

what should possibly be done to maintain such a level of 

production. In other words, we challenge the bell-shaped 

production curve shown in figure 1.

ASSESSMENTS OF CONVENTIONAL WORLD OIL 

RESOURCES

We do not have good tools with which to tackle our 

problems. Unfortunately, world oil resources are very 

poorly known. Because so many important energy policy 

decisions are founded on so fragile a basis, it is important 

to understand why and, hopefully, to aim to correct this 

uncomfortable situation to make the poorly known wellknown.

We have emphasized, as shown in figure 2, some of 

the differences between reserves and resources that can 

help us to understand better why we know so little about 

resources. Generally, the interest in reserves has been very 

great, but there was, until recently, little or no interest in 

resources. The time horizon for reserves is between 10 and

World Oil Resources: Assessment and Potential 145
RESERVES RESOURCES

Interest in ______ Great

Time horizon ___ 

Economic aspect

10-30 years 

Must be profitable

Estimated by ____ Industry

Data

Methods

More or less reliable, 

conservative, 

"proprietary," 

and exploitationoriented

Industrial work 

(expensive): 

exploration, 

drilling, and 

measurements

None in the past, now

emerging

Long or very long term 

Non-profitable today,

"science-fiction"

technology 

Member of industry or

government

(institutions) 

Uncertain or

speculative, but

scientifically

oriented

Paper or computer 

work: "geological", 

"historical"

Figure 2 Reserves compared to resources.

30 years, and for resources it is long or very long term. 

What we, at IIASA, call the long or very long term is at least 

from 20 to 50 years after the year 2000, say until the year 

2050 or even later, clearly into the 21st Century.

From the economic point of view, reserves must be 

"profitable". This is a very important point because, in 

fact, we have not redefined, since the oil crisis of 1973, the 

meaning of the word "profitable". Is a reserve "profitable 

for industry" (which was essentially the case up to now)? Is 

a reserve "profitable for a country"? This question can 

have a big influence on the revision of our estimates of 

reserves and (or) resources. Traditionally and by definition, resources are either not profitable or are unknown, 

and estimates even sometimes rely on what industry calls 

"science-fiction technology," that is, technologies still to be 

developed and matured. However, the border line between 

reserves and resources is sometimes very thin. For instance, if the British Government were to change its taxation policy only slightly and find it "profitable" to do so, 

so-called "marginal reserves" (currently in the 50 to 100 

million barrels range) would become commercially 

producible.

Estimates of reserves are generally made by industry 

(they are its daily bread). Estimates of resources have been 

made by members of the industry (most often on a hobby 

basis, because it is not their main occupation) or by 

government or scientific institutions. It follows that 

estimates of reserves are more or less reliable, conservative, proprietary, and exploitation oriented. Methods of 

obtaining these data are expensive and include exploration 

and drilling. On the other hand, resource estimates are 

uncertain or speculative, more theoretically oriented, and 

based on paper work, now also on computer work.

If we look at these many differences, I think that we 

already understand why the reserves are much better 

known than the resources. Starting from this point of 

view, we at IIASA have devoted much attention to the 

various world oil resources assessments and have tried to

understand them better. A summary of our studies was 

first presented at the meeting of the American Association 

of Petroleum Geologists in Houston, Texas, April 1-4, 

1979.

Some lists of world oil resources assessments during 

the past 25 or 30 years have been published. We have also 

made our own list of these mostly well-known estimates 

(fig. 3). We have listed only the results we have been able 

to find in published papers, because sometimes reference is 

made to an estimate we are not able to document. Our 

tabulation gives the name of the estimator and his company, which is an often underestimated factor. Where applicable, we have also put the estimate for the United 

States. When two values are given with a slash it is because 

the estimator himself has given two values. For instance, 

Weeks has generally calculated two values, for "primary"

ESTIMATOR, 

AFFILIATION, 

AND YEAR

ESTIMATE OF 

TOTAL BARRELS

U.S.

PART OF 

TOTAL

U.S.

PART OF 

PERCENT

Duce

(ARAMCO, 1946)___ 500 100 20

Pogue

(N.A., 1946)______ 615 

Weeks

(JERSEY, 1948) ____ 617 

Levorsen

(STANFORD, 1949)_ 1,635

Weeks

(JERSEY, 1949) ____ 1,015 

Weeks

(JERSEY, 1958) ____ 1,500/3,000* 240 16

Weeks

(N.A., 1959)______ 2,000/3,500* 270/460* 14

Hendricks

(USGS, 1965)______ 1,984/2,480* 320/400* 16

Weeks

(WEEKS, 1968) ____ 2,200/3,550* 

Hubbert

(USGS, 1969)______ (1,350-2,000)**

Moody

(MOBIL, 1970)____ 1,800

Warman

(B.P., 1971) ______ (1,200-2,000)**

Weeks

(WEEKS, 1971) ____ 2,290/3,490*

Jodry

(SUN, 1972)______ 1,952 190 10

Odell

(UNIV, 1973)______ 4,000

Kirby, Adams

(B.P., 1974)______ (1,600-2,000)**

Moody

(MOODY, 1975) ____ (1,705-2,030-2,505)** 242 12

95 percent 5 percent 

Grossling

(USGS, 1976)______ (1,960-2,200-3,000-5,600)** 182-250** 8

Klemme

(WEEKS, 1976)____ 1,600 

Parent, Linden

(Institute of Gas

Technology,

1977) __________ 2,000 

DELPHI

(Desprairies) (Institut

francais du

Petrole, 1977) _____ 2,200/2,500** 

Moody

(MOODY, 1978) ____ 2,030 300 15 

Nehring

(RAND [CIA], 1979) __ _____(1,700-2,300)**___________________^

* Estimator gives primary, then secondary values. 

** Estimator gives range, sometimes with a mean value.

Figure 3 Major published estimates of world oil resources. 

(Barrels are calculated in billions.)

146 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
and "secondary" recovery respectively. Values in brackets 

correspond to a range of values, sometimes with a mean 

value. Altogether, there have been about two dozen 

estimates since 1946.

Some experts have used similar tables to analyze 

potential trends of world oil resources estimates. Odell 

(1973) for instance, has made a curve, which is wellknown, of the linear regression of the estimates, and has 

shown that the estimates generally increased with time. In 

addition, it is possible to see from such graphs, even adding the most recent estimates, that the uncertainty or, one 

might say, the spreading of the estimates did not decrease 

with time. In fact, if we take all the values listed in figure 3, 

the picture appears as shown in figure 4. Even if many 

values tend to increase, it is in fact difficult to draw a 

regression line through the estimates. At best, there appears to be a magic line or "magic figure" of 2,000 billion 

barrels, at which many of the estimates are "knocking."

Analyzing these various estimates after a careful 

reading of the documents, we can summarize thus:

In 1947, there was the introduction of estimates of offshore oil which first boosted the estimates (Pratt, 1947; 

Levorsen, 1949).

In 1958, Weeks introduced the first estimate of broad 

regional distribution.

In 1962, Hubbert introduced the first "estimate of 

estimates."

In 1965, Hendricks estimated "discoverable" oil inplace.

109 bbl 

40004-

3000

2000 

EXPLANATION

• WEEKS

• MOODY

A DELPHI (MEANS)

• OTHERS

I RANGE OF ESTIMATES

5600 

t 

I 

I

- m

• 

•

• • 

•

#

4__I__

• I Vi"

V /

•

1 — 1— 1 — I — 1 1 1 — 1— 1 — 1 — _ ———— —

1000 •-

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Figure 4 Evolution of estimates of ultimate world oil resources. 

(Barrels are calculated in billions.)

In 1969, analyzing previous estimates, Hubbert stated 

that the uncertainty of world estimates was between 1,350 

and 2,000 billion barrels.

In 1970, Moody stressed the importance of giant and 

super giant fields.

In 1975, Moody published what remains one of the 

best (and most influential) estimates, and introduced probability distribution.

In 1977, the extremely important DELPHI study was 

issued (Desprairies, 1977).

In 1978, Nehring was the first to disclose the method 

and the data used to perform an estimate.

Concerning the study by Nehring, it is worth pointing 

out that previous estimates were, in fact, calling mostly 

upon our "faith," because if the method was, at best, suggested, the data used to arrive at the estimates were never 

cited. Here we refer to world estimates and not estimates 

for the United States, for which the situation was different. This means that from the scientific point of view, it 

was not possible to check whether world assessments were 

good or not.

As a next step, it is interesting to investigate the 

relative independence of these various estimates. 

Levorsen's, for instance, is not independent because he 

combined those of Pogue (1946) and of Weeks (1948), and 

added the offshore estimate of Pratt (1947). Weeks has 

made a lot of estimates but, of course, they are mere revisions and are not independent of each other. Hendricks 

was apparently independent. Hubbert, as we mentioned, 

made the first "estimate of estimates." This last process has 

more or less continued until the present day. To cut short 

this long story, figure 5 summarizes, using the horizontal 

axis for independent estimates and arrows for connections, 

a thirty-year period, from 1946 to 1976, for which we have 

found about six independent world oil resource estimates.

Then, in 1977, the very important DELPHI study by 

Pierre Desprairies of the French Petroleum Institute was 

published. It was prepared for the Conservation Commission of the World Energy Conference held September 

1977. More than forty experts were consulted: 27 answered 

the first set of questions, 22 of them confirmed or revised 

their answers in the second round. We can, however, question, by referring to the above, whether all of these 22 

estimates are really complete, independent estimates.

Figure 6 summarizes the main findings of the 

DELPHI study. Ultimate world oil resources remaining to 

be produced (to which must be added 300 billion barrels of 

past cumulative production, to make these figures comparable with others given previously) would be 1,900 

billion barrels, excluding deep offshore and polar areas, 

and 2,200 billion barrels if these are included, assuming the 

recovery rate were raised from today's average 25 percent 

to about 40 percent at the end of the century. (In fact, the

World Oil Resources: Assessment and Potential 147
1946 

1947 

1948

1949

1950

1951

19531952 13W1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965-

1966

1967

1968-

1969 

1970-

1971

1972

1973 

1974- 

1975-

1976'

•

•

.

'

'

,_ 

I r (PRATT)

! I DUCEX. *V POGUE 

I X I 

1 >V 1

| LEVORSEN » WEtKS

,

WE

WE

i i

KS

;KS

HENDRICKS

1 | WEEKS

-i 1

j ~^ r

, HUBBERT 1 

|_ J MOODY 

'^^/ ~ \~ -------

WARMAN WEEKS 1

J&_ \

ODELL ^ \ 

KIRKBY-ADAMS \ , , 

\ MOODY

JODRY

KLEMME

1977 

1978-

PARENT-LINDEN

Figure 5 Source relationships between oil resources estimates.

Ultimate world oil resources 

remaining to be produced 

("consensus")

1.900X109 bbl(260Gt)

or

2.200X 109 bbl (300 Gt) including 

deep-offshore and polar areas

 45 percent offshore

 Recovery increasing from present 25 percent to 40 percent in the year 

2000

 Increasing contribution of enhanced recovery: 55 percent of gross 

increase in 2000

 slowing down of annual rate of growth of reserves: Back to 

20xl09 bbl/yrin2000___________________________

Figure 6 Main findings of the WEC-DELPHi study published 

for the 1977 Conference.

limits imposed on the study were the year 2020 and a production cost of less than $20 per barrel, in 1976 dollars.) 

These are the values proposed by the estimator. The 

DELPHI study also concluded that the increasing contribution of enhanced recovery would account for 50 percent of 

the gross increase in the year 2000. By that year, the annual 

rate of growth of reserves would slow down to 20 billion 

barrels per year.

It is interesting to look at the degree of consensus. In 

the following paragraphs, we use billion metric tons of oil, 

which were the original units of the DELPHI study, instead 

of billions of barrels. In figure 7, the 27 "first" answers are 

plotted each respondent number appearing on the vertical scale and his corresponding individual estimate on the 

horizontal scale. It may be seen that the answers, in fact, 

cover a broad range, from about 170 billion to 750 billion

tons (the latter is an average for the 550 to 950-billion-ton 

range). It is interesting to remark that, even when extreme 

estimates are eliminated, the estimates of the consensus 

group (fig. 7), show some appreciable disagreement on the 

potential future role of deep offshore and polar areas. 

Figure 8 shows another way of presenting the same results.

Finally, in relation to our IIASA studies to assess potential future world oil production, it is interesting to try to 

establish values on regional distributions of world oil 

resources according to the DELPHI study experts. Figure 9 

shows, in a similar fashion to figure 8, the answers for 

North America. We find the known phenomenon of the 

broad ranges of estimates (answers re-converted to billion 

barrels in figures 8 and 9). And figure 10 shows for major 

regions the minimum estimates, the maximum estimates 

and the averages for the totality of answers from the experts, or only for the answers of the "consensus" in the 

global range of 200 to 300 billion tons. The 1975 Moody 

values and the 1978 Nehring values fall into the same 

ranges, and more especially into the consensus ranges. 

However, this no longer applies to the range of estimates, 

generally and understandably much broader if all the 

answers are taken into account. But even in the consensus 

range, and although agreement on the global value is plus 

or minus 20 percent, there is no clear convergence of 

estimates at the regional level. The ratios between higher 

and lower values in the 200 to 300 Gt range vary from 2 to 

4. Estimates of socialist countries, which do not publish 

statistics, are difficult to evaluate. For the Middle East, the 

factor of 2 represents a very big difference of 80 billion 

tons, which is roughly equivalent to present known world 

reserves. The highest disagreement of opinion among the 

experts is related to deep offshore and polar areas. It is fair 

to say that the DELPHI study in fact occurred about at the 

turning point: concerning deep offshore, the original optimism of the mid-1970s has now been succeeded by an (exaggerated?) pessimism.

This is where we stand with regional estimates for 

world oil resources and the material with which we are 

working. It seems appropriate to say that, from the scientific point of view, our knowledge is very, very poor.

ASSESSMENTS OF WORLD UNCONVENTIONAL 

OIL RESOURCES

We can assess estimates of unconventional oil 

resources in the world by saying that the situation is still 

much worse than for conventional oil resources.

True, there are some very large deposits, more or less 

well known and curiously, located on the "oil ring" 

described by Nehring (1978) (Athabasca Tar Sands, Colorado Oil Shales, Orinoco Heavy Crudes). The aggregate 

in-the-ground resources of these very large deposits are 

considerable, at least 800 billion tons, of which about 150

148 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
EXPLANATION

CONVENTIONAL OIL 

— — TOTAL

550-950

300 350 400 450 500 

ESTIMATE OF OIL PRODUCTION, IN BILLION METRIC TONS

650

Figure 7 Analysis of answers to DELPHI questions. Shaded area: 18 answers regarded by Desprairies (1977) as representing a consensus. Values on the left are figures without polar and offshore areas, where applicable; values on the right include polar and offshore 

areas.

LESS THAN

300-109 t

OR 2200 • 109 bbl

NUMBER OF 

ANSWERS

8--

27 ANSWERS

18 IN RANGE 200-300 Gt

500- 

950

I±L

300 400 500 600

BILLION METRIC TONS OF OIL

700

1000 1500 2200 3000 3700 4400 

BILLION BARRELS

800

5100 5800

ALL ANSWERS 

"MAJORITY" ANSWERS

Figure 8 World oil resources remaining to be produced (DELPHI 

study). Vertical scale: number of answers for the various ranges 

of the horizontal scale; shaded area: 18 answers regarded by 

Desprairies (1977) as representing a consensus.

billion tons are presently considered to be recoverable (fig. 

11), which has to be compared to the 900 billion tons of

150 200 250 300 350400 450 500 

109 bbl

Figure 9 Ultimate oil recovery in United States and Canada 

(DELPHI study). (Estimates are calculated in billions of barrels.)

conventional oil originally in place, if we accept the 

DELPHI values. But our main concern is to answer this 

question: what may possibly exist at a global level beyond 

these huge deposits; that is, what is the potential regional

World Oil Resources: Assessment and Potential 149
RANGE PROJECTED IN 

ALL VALUES

VALUES

"IN CONSENSUS" 

200-300 Gt RANGE*

MINI- MAXI- AVER- MINI- MAXI- AVERMUM MUM AGE MUM MUM AGE

Socialist countries

U.S.A. and Canada _ _

Middle East and North Africa 

Africa South of Sahara

Western Europe

Latin America

East and South Asia (includes 

Japan, Australia, and 

New Zealand)

Deep offshore and polar 

regions

77

6

54. 

?

5

7

5

0

1

7

,8

7

9

5

96.3

50

300 

40

22

55

30

230

54

78

109. 

11

11

77

15

38

9

5

.1 

3

7

9

1

7

40.3

15.6

76

4

5

12.5

6

0

83

45

156

13.4

22

36.9

25

50

54

76

101.

8

11

70

13

71

9

1

.9

8

1

9

6

7

*Of the 18 values in the 200 to 300 Gt Range, four do not give details 

by regions.

Figure 10 Regional distribution of DELPHI estimates. (Figures 

are calculated in gigatons.)

distribution of these unconventional oil resources? 

Because of a lack of economic interest until now (let us 

recall: reserves must be profitable), very little effort has 

been made to assess these unconventional resources in 

most countries.

As we showed at our 1976 IIASA-UNITAR Conference 

on the "Future Supply of Nature-Made Petroleum and 

Gas", sources of global data are generally very few and 

very old (Barnea and others, 1977). Contrary to what was 

expected, the first United Nations sponsored Conference 

on Heavy Crudes and Tar Sands held at Edmonton, Alberta in 1979 (United Nations Institute for Training and 

Research, 1981) did not really improve the data situation.

Most improvements were related to Canada and, to a lesser 

extent, to the United States and Venezuela. Many of us, in 

the energy community, had expected that a serious reassessment would get started after the 1973-74 oil crisis. 

Apparently (we will come back to this matter later) and unfortunately, this did not happen, except in the three abovementioned countries plus, possibly, in a very few other 

places.

That is why the International Institute for Applied 

Systems Analysis has launched its own survey of unconventional oil resources, through questionnaires and interviews. Our study is about midway so that it is premature 

to present final results and (or) conclusions. However, 

some of our progress will be reported.

Heavy Crudes and Tar Sands

At the already-mentioned international conference in 

Edmonton, Meyer and Dietzman of the U.S. Geological 

Survey presented a global estimate of resources and 

possibly recoverable reserves of heavy crudes and tar sands 

(fig. 12). Recovery rates for tar sands were generally very 

conservatively estimated at 10 percent or less (paper given 

in June 1979).

We, at IIASA, consider these figures somewhat 

misleading inasmuch as they aggregate rather good 

data for Canada, the U.S.A., and Central America 

(essentially Venezuela) with poor to very poor data for 

the other regions.

9 a s a SB

848 GTep

,., • r • • 1 1 • ,,,

425 GTep 

Technically 

economically 

recoverable 

reserves

Coal

400 GTep

Resources

in situ

—Recoverable — 

reserves 50 GTep

Oil Shale

400 GTep

Resources

in situ

Recoverable

reserves

100 GTep

Tar Sand & 

Heavy Oils

276 GTep

138 GTep

Ultimately

recoverable

resources

Natural Gas

Minimum 

Maximum

300 GTep 

Ultimately 

recoverable

resources

Proved 

reserves

Conventional 

Oil

Figure 11 Fossil fuel reserves and resources. (Estimates are given in billions of tons; GTep = 

gigatonnes (billions of tons) of oil equivalent.)

150 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
MEDIUM HEAVY 

CRUDE OILS CRUDE OILS DEPOSITS' 

20<°API<25 "API < 20

TOTAL

Canada

U.S.A.

Middle America

South America

Europe

Africa

Middle East

USSR/Asia

Total

119

2,271

108

8,376

154

4,197

32,759

660

48,664

69

2,254

331

5,654

734

89

3,528

97

12,747

333,010

2,512

100,012

175

16

435,731

333,198

7,057

439

114,033

6

4,461

36,287

773

497,122

 In this table Meyer uses the word "deposits" to refer to crude oil which does not occur in 

conventional reservoirs.

Figure 12 Estimate of heavy crude and tar sand reserves (106 

barrels) (from Meyer and Dietzman, 1979).

It is interesting to point out that, in known areas and 

the ones, in fact, where knowledge has increased further, 

there has generally been an increase in the estimates.

Athabasca tar sands: 627 billion barrels estimated in 

1976 (Canada, Ministry of Energy, Mines, and Resources, 

1977); 869 billion barrels estimated in 1979 by Mossop and 

others (Alberta Research Council) who referred to a 1978 

study by Outtrim and Evans.

Lloydminster (Alberta) heavy crudes: Two probabilistic estimates, one for 1976 and one for 1979, are 

shown in figure 13. See also McCrossan and others (1979).

100r—

50

EXPLANATION

—— 1976 estimate of oil in 

place in Alberte and 

Saskatchewan. 

(Source: Oil Sands 

and Heavy Oils: The 

Prospects: Ceneda 

EMR Report EP 77-2)

—— 1979 estimete of oil in 

drilled and mepped 

arees. Alberta 

(Source: McCrossan 

end others, 1979)

— — 1979 speculation on oil 

in Alberte, including 

unexplored areas. 

(Source: McCrossan 

end others, 1979)

20 25 30 40 50 60 

OIL IN PLACE (BILLION BARRELS)

70 75

Geological Survey of Canada

Figure 13 Lloydminster-area heavy oils.

California tar sands: Estimates have increased from 

270-323 million barrels in 1965 (Ball Associates, 

Monograph 12) to 966 million barrels in 1979 (Hallmark 

paper given at International Conference, Edmonton) 

through the addition of new deposits, not including two 

large but conjectural deposits.

Utah tar sands: Estimates have grown from 2.0-4.3 

billion barrels in 1965 (Ball Associates, Monograph 12) to 

22.4-29.2 billion barrels in 1979 (Ritzma, 1974 and 1979).

An important question is, of course: Can this upward 

revising be expected to be a general phenomenon? That is, 

were deposits very conservatively estimated in the past 

(sometimes, a long time ago, as much as a few decades)

and will more recent and better assessments upgrade them? 

It is premature, and unfortunately not possible, to give a 

definite answer to this question. However, three examples 

outside North America, among the few we have at hand, 

give some preliminary information.

In Madagascar, an unpublished 1954 British 

Petroleum study (Kent, 1954) that was used in Meyer and 

Dietzman's 1979 assessment had estimated tar sand 

resources at 1.79 billion barrels; but a 1962 survey by Andrianasolo and others for the Malagasy Oil Company arrived at a possible estimate of 22 billion barrels or 3 billion 

tons.

For Italy, the 1979 Meyer and Dietzman estimate 

referred to 50 million tons (about 360 million barrels) of 

recoverable heavy oil. The most recent Azienda Generale 

Italiana Petroli (AGIP) assessment by Dalla Casa and 

others mentions 350 million tons of heavy oil originally in 

place in developed fields and 1,200 million tons in 

discovered but not yet developed fields. Assuming a lowrecovery factor of 10 percent because of technical difficulties, this represents about 155 million tons or 1,100 

billion barrels of recoverable oil.

For Peru, based on previous estimates, Meyer and 

Dietzman reported 60 million barrels of recoverable 

reserves. But at the Edmonton International Conference, 

A. A. Pardo (Petroleos del Peru) mentioned that in-place 

reserves of heavy crudes for the Maranon Basin are 

estimated at 1,500 million barrels. A low 10 percent 

recovery rate would yield 150 million barrels.

The few examples cited above illustrate, if at all 

necessary, the difficulties but also the potential for evolution of such reserves and resources estimates of heavy 

crudes and tar sands.

Oil Shales

World oil-shale resources were given by J. R. Donnell 

(1977) at the 1976 IIASA-UNITAR Conference, as shown in 

figures 14 and 15. In fact, most of these data originate 

from the excellent 1965 U.S. Geological Survey Circular 

523 by Duncan and Swanson, itself a collection of old to 

very old data. The various tables by Meyer, Duncan,

CONTINENTS

RECOVERABLE

UNDER PRESENT MARGINAL AND 

CONDITIONS SUBMARGINAL

Africa _ _

Asia

Australia and New Zealand _________ 

Europe _ _ _ _

North America

South America

10

24

30

80

50

90

84

1

46

2,120

750

Total 190 3,091

Source: By J. R. Donnell; modified from Duncan and Swanson.

Figure 14 Known oil shale resources of the world land areas 

(billions of barrels).

World Oil Resources: Assessment and Potential 151
SMALL RESOURCES MEDIUM RESOURCES LARGE RESOURCES

Chile

Turkey

Austria _ _

Malagasy

Poland

10«m3

3

3

7

3

3

106 tons

1

4

6

10' barrels

18.9 

18.9 

44.0 

18.9 

18.9

106 barrels

8 

32

48

South Africa

Argentina

Australia

Bulgaria _

Spain

Luxembourg __

Thailand

Yugoslavia _ _

Morocco

106m3

20 

60 

40 

20 

40 

70 

110 

40 

130 

30

106 tons

74

106 barrels

125.8 

377.4 

251.6 

125.8 

251.6 

440.3 

691.9 

251.6 

817.7 

188.7

106 barrels

592

West Germany _ 

Burma

Brazil

Canada

People's Republic 

of China

Zaire Kinshasa _

TT C A

Italy (Sicily) _

Sweden _ _

ITCCT?

106 m! 106 barrels

320 2,012.8 

320 2,012.8 

127,320 800,842.8 

7,000 44,030.0

4,430 27,864.7 

16,000 100,640.0 

250,000 2,000,220.0 

160 1,006.4 

5,600 35,224.0 

400 2,516.0 

17,000 112,591.0

Figure 15 Estimates of oil shale resources by country.

Swanson, Donnell, and others are, in fact, the first tentative assessments of the global existence and (or) 

availability of unconventional oil.

Our HASA survey permits an additional perspective; 

continuing again with a few examples:

In France, in 1954 there were 440 million barrels of 

known oil shale resources according to J. R. Donnell 

(1977). A three-year study (1974-1978) by R. Breton and 

others (1978) included 35 core drillings over a broad area 

east of Paris plus 10 core drillings in a selected area within 

that broad area. The broad area survey indicated about 

seven billion barrels, and the intensive survey of the 

smaller area identified more than 400 million barrels with 

contents between 40 and 100 liters of oil per ton of rock 

(restricted to an overburden ratio of about 2).

In Morocco, Duncan and Swanson (1965) gave no oil 

shale estimate; but in 1974, A. K. Matveyev estimated 

about 600 million barrels. Today, known resources are 

estimated at 1.6 billion barrels and total resources can 

possibly reach 5 billion barrels, according to recent HAS A 

survey findings.

In contrast to these two important upward revisions, 

our survey has also revealed downward revisions, such as 

for Italy, the United Kingdom, and New Zealand. The 

final figure for Italy is not yet known, but it is foreseen, on 

the basis of the HASA survey, that it will be lower than the

previous figure of 35 billion barrels. For Great Britain, 

where data are most uncertain, and interest is very low, a 

pilot study in the Kimmeridge Clay apparently downgrades 

occurrences. For New Zealand, no figures are available, 

but a statement, based on 20 core drillings, reports that 

resources are smaller than previously estimated and are of 

no economic importance (personal commun., IIASA 

Survey).

Most studies indicate that at present there is little or no 

interest in oil shale resources. In fact, it is clear that most if 

not all the deposits are relatively smaller and of a lesser oil 

content than the Colorado oil shale deposits, and that 

probably no effort will be made elsewhere before the 

United States really begins to exploit their huge oil shale 

reserves, apart maybe from the special case of Brazil.

THE THREE PATHS TO COSTLY OIL

There is no doubt that the cost of oil (we are not 

speaking here of its sale price!) shows a rising trend 

regardless of what production route is followed. We summarize this in figure 16.

The first path is the historical one: the oil industry, 

especially onshore, shifts production progressively from 

supergiant and giant fields to medium-size fields and, 

finally, to small fields. The supergiants or fields larger

GIANT FIELD MEDIUM FIELDS

(5-109 bbl) 

(700-106 t)

(500 

(70

106 bbl) 

106 t)

50 

(7

106 bbl) 

106 t)

ON-SHORE OFF-SHORE

SMALL FIELDS

(5-106 bbl) 

(0,7 -106 t)

DEEP-OFFSHORE

"GOOD" OIL 

(80-25° API)

DIFFICULT OIL 

(25-10° API)

•"BAD" OIL

(10-7° API, TAR SANDS) 

KEROGEN, OIL SHALES)

Figure 16 The three paths to costly oil.

152 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
U.S.A. __________ 2,219 Venezuela 41 Burma

Canada 

Mexico _ 

Algeria _ 

Argentina 

Indonesia 

Brazil _ 

Iran _____

241 India ____________ 40

174 United Kingdom ______ 34

101 Iraq _____________ 29

73 Libya 

61

20 Japan ____________ 14

Abu Dhabi _________ 19 Malaysia __________ 13

Peru _____________ 19 Turkey ___________ 13

Trinidad __________ 19 Italy 12

Germany __________ 25

54 Saudi Arabia ________ 24

53 Yugoslavia _________ 22

28 Nigeria ___________ 18 Austria ___________ 11

Netherlands _________ 17

Syria _____________ 17

Egypt ____________ 15

Australia __________ 10

Colombia __________ 10

Pakistan __________ 10

Figure 17 Summary of world rig activity in 1978 (excluding socialist areas), given as number of rigs by country. Besides the 3,456 rigs 

listed, another 30 countries have from 1 to 9 rigs, for a total of 120.

14000 +

Oil rigs 

by region

North America ' _

Latin America _

Europe

Middle East

Africa

Asia

South Pacific

Total

Number 

operating

2,460

402

142

193

182

186

13

3,578

Prospective Areas in 

square miles 

by Grossling (1976) by Ivanhoe

4,421,400 

4,804,600 

1,394,000 

1,344,800 

5,034,590

1,819,300

1 Includes United States and Canada but not Mexico. Total number of rigs by region does not 

necessarily agree with enumeration by country.

Figure 18 Number of rigs by regions and by estimated size.

than 700 million tons or 5 billion barrels were eagerly 

searched for all over the world and the giants, those larger 

than 70 million tons or 500 million barrels, were both the 

most profitable, and still account for more than 70 percent 

of world oil production.

Small fields already account for 15 percent of United 

States production. It is sometimes argued that this could 

only happen in the United States because of the special 

situation where the wealth underground belongs to the 

owner of the surface: thousands and thousands of farmers 

have taken the risk; a few became millionaires. This only 

means that in other countries if the same result is to be 

achieved other or new types of incentives will have to be 

found. We are confident that, since it will take a long time 

before a substitute for oil is found, these incentives will indeed be developed. Nationalized oil companies will probably be the first to benefit from them.

A review of world petroleum history makes clear that 

there is an enormous variation in the size of drilling 

efforts, as brilliantly shown by B. F. Grossling in his article, "Window on Oil" (1976). Regarding the prospects for 

finding more oil, we at IIASA agree qualitatively with 

Grossling, but not "quantitatively" in the sense that we 

find him somewhat optimistic. But we are convinced that 

there is still a lot of oil to be found.

Curiously, it is interesting but somewhat disappointing to see how the Western World has reacted to the 

1973-74 crisis. This is illustrated by the data for rig activity 

(figs. 17 and 18) and for exploratory drilling completions 

(fig. 19). Two conclusions can be drawn: (1) There is a continuous and even increasing difference between drilling 

by the United States and Canada on the one hand and the

12000 •

10000 •

8000 •

6000 •

4000 •

2000

USA

CANADA

LATIN AMERICA

EASTERN HEMISPHERE

1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 

Figure 19 Free world total exploratory well completions.

rest of the Western World on the other hand: and (2) only 

the United States and Canada have dramatically increased 

their search for oil and gas since the oil crisis.

From the DELPHI study, a tentative supply curve can 

be drawn for the 300 billion tons of oil remaining to be 

produced (fig. 20). Incidentally, a similar curve was mentioned by Shell representatives in a May 9, 1979 lecture by 

K. R. Williams. This means that a good part, about twothirds of these 300 billion tons of oil, was considered to be 

producible at less than $12 per barrel (in 1976 dollars), 

with corresponding investments of less than $10,000 per 

barrel per day capacity. Let us recall that the greater part 

of oil today (in 1979) is still produced at costs probably not 

higher than $2 per barrel per day.

World Oil Resources: Assessment and Potential 153
300-

BILLIOIM 

TOIMIMES

200--

100.-

108.109t

or

36%

78.109t

or

26%

144.109t

or 

38%

10 15 

1976$/bbl

20

Figure 20 World oil supply curve, according to DELPHI study 

(1977).

For these reasons, we think that, on a global basis, this 

path will remain the preferred one in coming decades, and 

will probably be used reasonably far into the 21st Century. 

It can provide sufficient time taking into account that 

world consumption and (or) production of oil will increase 

much slower than previously forecast for a timely 

penetration of unconventional oil into the market, provided a few countries pave the way; for example, the 

United States with the Synfuel program and Canada with 

tar sands.

The second, or offshore path, began with a 

technological extension of onshore exploration and production, and was further encouraged for political reasons. 

The North Sea was especially suitable for offshore 

development because of its highly appealing political 

stability. Here the most impressive technological progress 

has been achieved. Unfortunately, the progress has been 

accompanied by parallel and dramatic cost increases 

($10,000 to $12,000 per barrel per day capacity). 

Moreover, there is some disappointment with U.S. Atlantic offshore explorations, for instance with regard to the 

Baltimore Canyon. This, together with discouraging 

results up to now in deep offshore areas, has somewhat 

slowed down the race to deeper and deeper water, and has 

led some experts to revise downward their previous hopes

for deep offshore potential. Higher and higher costs are 

obvious, but the resources if any are elusive. Curiously, 

this path is counter to the first: because of increasing costs, 

unfortunately, going deeper and deeper obliges oil 

operators to concentrate only on the biggest deposits. That 

means that giant fields are needed for normal offshore 

production (as mentioned above for North Sea "marginal" 

fields) and probably that supergiants are needed for deep 

offshore production, unless new production methods are 

developed.

The third path would be from "good oil" to "bad oil" 

(oil shales) passing through "difficult oil" (heavy crudes 

and tar sands). Such a production evolution is highly 

technology-dependent and will really occur if it occurs at 

all as a result of a political determination and only in a 

few countries at first. These few countries, including 

presumably Canada and the United States, have the double 

incentive of high oil consumption and imports and of owning the largest deposits presently known. They also have 

the advantage of possessing oil producers competent at the 

highest technological levels. A problem whose solution is 

not yet clear, but which could be highly important at the 

world level, is to understand whether path 3 will resemble 

path 1 or path 2 as far as sizes of deposits are concerned. 

Because of the immature state of development of the 

technology of "difficult" and "bad" oil, it is hard to anticipate whether only large to very large deposits will be 

producible or whether small deposits will also be producible, possibly through different methods. With our present 

knowledge, investments for path 3 are the highest among 

the various steps of the three paths: for example, $25,000 

to $30,000 per barrel per day capacity for new tar sand 

projects in Alberta.

These very high capital costs (for production from tar 

sands, deep offshore, oil shales, etc.) and the huge size of 

deposits and (or) production facilities point to a necessary 

and permanent role for major oil companies, with the hope 

that the necessary steps will be taken to encourage them, or 

simply to keep them alive.

CONCLUSION

We are hopeful that the necessary amounts of liquid 

fuels can be produced, according to our curve proposed in 

figure 1, with a progressive and well-planned penetration of unconventional oil. (We do not underestimate the 

possible role of liquids from coal, but this question is outside the scope of this paper.)

Two final comments by way of conclusion: 

1. The three paths that lead to costly oil also lead, in 

fact, to a new dimension in oil history, because of 

the dramatic increases not only in costs in monetary 

value but also in costs of natural (and human) 

resources. Impacts on, and requirements for, other

154 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
natural (and human) resources will become greater 

and greater for producing these new sources of 

energy. So much so, in fact, that energy resources 

can no longer be considered in isolation from other 

resources such as water, land, materials, and manpower, these same resources being discussed during 

this U.S. Geological Survey Centennial Symposium. To understand these systems aspects better, we have developed the WELMM approach 

(Water, Energy, Land, Materials and Manpower) 

at IIASA and summarized our opinion in the slogan: 

Man does not consume energy, but WELMMITE. A 

lot remains to be done to achieve a better 

understanding in this direction. 

2. Much will depend on what will happen in the next 

decade in North America. If the North Americans 

are successful, their efforts will open the way to 

new resources, not only for North America, but all 

over the world. It is with some melancholy that I 

must confess that Western Europe, the region 

depending the most on oil and, unfortunately, on 

imported oil, has restricted itself to a wait-and-see 

position.

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

I should like to thank especially Jean Michel Merzeau, 

of IIASA, for his very efficient help on unconventional oil 

resources with the preliminary results of the survey he is 

performing and for stimulating advice and discussions.

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and Co., 120 p.

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presented at First International Conference on the Future of 

Heavy Crude and Tar Sands, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, 

June 4-12, 1979.

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heavy crude oils. Paper presented at First International Conference on the Future of Heavy Crude and Tar Sands, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, June 4-12, 1979.

Moody, J. D., 1978, Hydrocarbon resources and related problems. Presented at the Interciencia/SEPC Symposium on 

energy and development in the Americas, Guaraja, Brazil, 

March 13-17, 1978.

World Oil Resources: Assessment and Potential 155
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may exceed 1,500 billion barrels. World Oil, September, p. 

47.

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fields of North America, in Geology of giant petroleum 

fields: American Association of Petroleum Geologists 

Memoir 14, p. 8-18.

Mossop, G. D., Kramers, J. W., Flach, P. D., and Rottenfusser, 

B. A., 1979, Geology of Alberta's oil sands and heavy oil 

deposits. Paper presented at First International Conference 

on the Future of Heavy Crude and Tar Sands, Edmonton, 

Alberta, Canada, June 4-12, 1979.

Nehring, R., 1978, Giant oil fields and world oil resources. 

Prepared for the Central Intelligence Agency. R-2284-CIA: 

Santa Monica, Calif., Rand Corporation, 162 p.

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Journal (London), vol. 139, pt. 3, p. 436-454.

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their evaluation, in Redford, D. A., and Winestock, A. G., 

eds., The oil sands of Canada-Venezuela: Canadian Institute 

of Mining and Metallurgy, Special Volume no. 17, p. 36-66.

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Peru. Paper presented at First International Conference on 

the Future of Heavy Crude and Tar Sands, Edmonton, 

Alberta, Canada, June 4-12, 1979.

Parent, J. D., and Linden, H. R., 1977, A survey of United States 

and total world production, proved reserves and remaining 

recoverable resources of fossil fuels and uranium as of 

December 31, 1975: Chicago, Institute of Gas Technology.

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623-632.

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Association of Petroleum Geologists Bulletin, vol. 32, no. 4, 

p. 657-672.

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oil-impregnated sands in energy resources of the Uinta Basin: 

Utah Geological Association Publication 4, p. 60.

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Geological and Mineral Survey Map 47, 1:1,000,000, 2 

sheets.

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future of heavy crude oils and tar sands: Mining Informational Services, McGraw-Hill, 915 p.

Warman, H. R., 1971, Why explore for oil and where? APEA 

(Australian Petroleum Exploration Association) Journal, 

vol. 11, pt. 1, p. 9-13.

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petroleum fields: American Association of Petroleum 

Geologists Bulletin, vol. 32, no. 6, p. 1094.

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Association of Petroleum Geologists, 1,348 p.

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Engineer, August, p. A24-A31.

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Industry, vol. 3, no. 6, p. 43-51.

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London, Applied Science Publishers.

Williams, K. R., 1979, Future Availability of Hydrocarbon Fuels. 

Lecture presented at the European Nuclear Conference, May 

9, 1979, Hamburg, Federal Republic of Germany.

Michel Grenon

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis

A-2361 Laxenburg

Schloss Laxenburg, Austria

156 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

Bernardo F. Grossling

Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.

First of all, I would like to congratulate Dr. Grenon 

for his candid critique of the various estimates that have 

been proposed for world petroleum resources. In his 

paper, he refers often to consensus points of view. As it 

turns out, he has developed a consensus of consensuses. 

Now I will highlight some of the points made in that paper.

His starting point is how critically important are the 

remaining world petroleum resources, because to reach the 

energy alternatives of the 21st Century, we will need those 

oil resources for the remainder of this century and the early 

part of the next. If that oil is not available, we simply will 

not reach the 21st Century.

The paper gives a useful estimate of the annual 

amount of oil that will be needed for the next several 

decades to sustain the world economy, before the other 

energy alternatives are able to make an important contribution. The estimate is three to four billion tons of oil 

per year.

In the paper Grenon further states that only Nehring 

had disclosed the method used in making the estimates, 

which is not exact. For instance, both Hendricks and 

Grossling, and perhaps others, have also disclosed in full 

their estimation methods and the supporting data.

The paper traces the interrelationships of the various 

estimates, and shows that most of them are not independent. To display these relationships, family trees of 

estimates are presented. It can be seen that there are few 

"ancestors"; rather, most of the estimates are "cousins."

When examining the numerical range of the various 

estimates one is struck by how widespread they are. Also, 

no definite time trend is apparent the data show neither 

an increase nor a decrease of the world estimates as a function of the time when the estimate was released. Moreover,

the spread of the data does not appear to decrease with 

time. Thus from that point of view the latest estimates do 

not appear to be closer to the truth than the earliest were.

Commenting on the methods and data which have 

been used, he terms the existing knowledge to be "very, 

very poor." I would suggest that we change it to "very, 

very, very poor."

Dr. Grenon outlines three patterns that future oil 

developments could follow: (1) trend to heavier oils, (2) 

trend to smaller fields, and (3) trend to offshore fields. I 

have a reservation with respect to the trend to smaller 

fields. It does not seem to me that the majority of the giant 

fields have already been discovered in the world. Rather, it 

would appear that the greater number of the giant fields, 

scattered over the world's prospective petroleum area, are 

yet to be found.

I agree with Dr. Grenon's skepticism about current 

estimates of world petroleum resources. One should question the apparent sole reliance or bias of decision makers 

toward conventional or consensus views. The amount of 

petroleum we will finally obtain is what worldwide exploratory efforts are able to ultimately get, and not a socalled "expected value," based on current perceptions. The 

underlying uncertainty function of these methods of 

estimation is really unknown. Because of these considerations I feel we should prefer to continue scanning the full 

range of the published estimates, as Dr. Grenon has done.

Bernardo F. Grossling 

Inter-American Development Bank 

801 17th Street 

Annex A Room 603 

Washington, D.C. 20577

Discussion 157
Comments from the Floor

H. W. Menard (U.S. Geological 

Survey): There is no way to define a scientific prediction system. It is rather striking 

that there is not an enormous range in the 

estimate of undiscovered oil. That is 

because there is rather general agreement 

as to how much oil remains to be 

discovered in Alaska and the continental 

shelves. We have detailed information 

from oil countries. The more information 

you have, the wider the range of 

estimates.

M. Grenon (International Institute 

for Applied Systems Analysis): Price is 

one of the crucial parameters. Unconventional natural gas could become competitive, but at the same time a lot of conventional natural gas has been put on the

market. We delay on unconventional 

natural gas because it is much more expensive. There is a trend of OPEC to 

always increase the oil price. New countries are now entering the oil price increase 

game. Egypt has been exploring for the 

last few years and along with Mexico is 

now producing oil on the market. India is 

another example of another country that 

cannot afford to pay high prices for oil 

and therefore will start exploration. Between $20 and $25 per barrel means a lot 

of oil can come on the market and many 

people will not be able to buy it.

E. Bittner (Office of Resources, U.S. 

Department of State): On the question of 

whether one can bring oil onto the market 

if it only goes up high enough, one has to 

consider the energy cost of bringing in difficult oil. In Venezuela with heavy oil, 

with today's technology it costs more 

energy in terms of a barrel of oil than one 

would get from a barrel of oil. In addition 

to a price, we must consider an energy 

balance. The technology is a restraint.

M. Grenon: We have created such an 

energy imbalance. If you look at oil shale 

in the United States, the balance is still 

very positive. We are now studying about 

when the balance will become negative if 

you go to decreasing content. Oil shale 

still maintains a positive balance. If you 

consider water pumping power, the 

energy balance is negative, but the 

economical balance is positive. You have 

to look at the economic balance as well as 

the energy balance.

158 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The Growing Oil Scarcity and the Challenge of 

Future Discoveries

Ahmed Zaki Yamani

Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources 

Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The world price of gold has, over the last four months, 

increased from $240 an ounce to more than $400, showing 

a rise of 67 per cent. If this latter price is compared to a 

base price of $35 per ounce which existed immediately 

prior to the first devaluation of the U.S. dollar in 1971, the 

resulting percentage increase would be more than 1,000 per 

cent. Over the same two periods of comparison, the 

average price of oil (or black gold) has gone up by 38 per 

cent and 775 per cent respectively, a rise considerably 

lower than that of gold. The reason put forward by the 

press for this dramatic rise in the price of gold is the growing distrust of individuals in world currency markets as 

well as their reaction to the prospects of high inflation and 

recession in world economies.

Apart from what the press and other media say about 

gold, people buy gold as a store of value for protection 

against future hazards. They also buy it for its utility as 

jewelry, and here it has an intrinsic value to them as individuals. But for the economy at large, buying gold is an 

investment with a very low return. Its contribution to productivity and GNP growth is almost nil except for a few 

countries who control its world production. Nonetheless, 

people at all levels tend to accept a price increase of gold as 

a fact of life. There is little dispute between nations as to 

whether such an increase is exorbitant or normal. There is 

even less dispute as to whether its price is controlled by a 

few sellers who stand to reap huge profits from its sale at 

times of high prices.

When it comes to oil, it is an entirely different story. It 

is a well-known fact that its discovery, its reserves and production, its utilisation and trade attract the greatest interest and controversy among all sorts of people including 

in particular economists, politicians, journalists and 

academicians; and the reason for this should not escape 

our notice. Unlike gold, oil productivity is in contrast immeasurable, for it is involved in almost every phase of 

human activity, by day and night, at factory and at home, 

in motion and at rest. It is not an overstatement to say with 

confidence that it is the geologist and then the driller, who, 

by discovering it, have paved the way for this all-pervasive 

contribution to the advancement of mankind. We in Saudi 

Arabia do pay tribute to those teams of American 

geologists and drillers who, armed with the best of

technology and a zest for achievement, have been instrumental in the well-timed discovery of our giant oil 

fields. They have also contributed a great deal towards the 

exploration and development of mineral resources now 

under way. Although it is premature at this stage to 

evaluate our mineral potential in a precise manner, we do 

hope that by the turn of this century we may assume an effective role in world trade of other minerals like that 

played by oil. After these great discoveries were established, the management and disposal of those resources 

were transferred by geologists and their trade partners to 

the business managers and their associates in both the 

private and public sectors. I hope that these other 

categories of human beings will perform as good a task as 

did the geologist, who in our world of irrational conflict 

today has become the real unknown soldier.

As far as oil is concerned, it should be inscribed in the 

annals of history that the greatest contribution made was 

that of the geologist. Undaunted by inhospitable climates 

of prospective areas, be they the hot deserts laden with 

awkward sand storms, or the cold and icy polar areas extremely hazardous to health, the geologist has struggled, 

finding the huge reservoirs that contain this precious 

hydrocarbon liquid needed by man to preserve and enrich 

world civilisation. Hundreds of billions of barrels have 

been found so far. However man, in his quest for a better 

life, has, since the inception of oil discoveries during the 

19th Century, used up about 427 billion barrels out of a 

worldwide discovered recoverable reserve of 1,120 billion 

barrels, i.e., about 38 per cent.

The geologist, more than anyone else, knows how 

many years current world reserves will last if the world 

continues to consume oil at existing levels, and how many 

fewer years they would last if higher rates of consumption 

were necessary to maintain higher economic growth. He, 

more than anyone else, knows how much oil is ultimately 

available for recovery from conventional fields and from 

those that may be discovered elsewhere in the next ten to 

twenty years. I hope that as geologists your outlook on the 

future is optimistic, because my own is grim indeed. I do 

not have to repeat the same numerical prognosis which I 

have so many times introduced before audiences as 

distinguished as yours, in order to prove my point. Suffice

The Growing Oil Scarcity 159
at this stage to cite some figures that depict the dramatic, if 

not wasteful, rise in world consumption on a disaggregated 

basis during the last ten years. The American individual on 

average consumed 3.2 tonnes of oil in 1968. In 1978 he 

raised his consumption to 4.1 tonnes, reflecting a rise of 

almost nine-tenths of one tonne or 284 American gallons. 

His consumption of total primary energy including oil during the same period went up from 7.74 tonnes (of oil 

equivalent) to 8.73 tonnes, a rise of almost one tonne. But 

while, as I have already demonstrated, per capita consumption of oil increased by nine-tenths of one tonne, 

average consumption of all other sources of energy increased at the same time by only one-tenth of one tonne of 

oil equivalent.

Per capita consumption of oil in Western Europe went 

up from 1.45 tonnes in 1968 to 1.87 tonnes in 1978, a rise 

of 0.42 tonnes, or 132 US gallons. Average primary energy 

consumption including oil increased from 2.65 tonnes of 

oil equivalent to 3.25 tonnes of oil equivalent, i.e., a rise of 

six-tenths of one tonne. Again, the greatest part of this rise 

in energy consumption, or 70 per cent, was accounted for 

by oil. Per capita consumption of oil in Japan grew over 

the same period from 1.35 tonnes to 2.32 tonnes, reflecting 

a rise of about one tonne or 315 US gallons, whereas per 

capita consumption of primary energy, including oil, increased from 2.1 tonnes to 3.2 tonnes of oil equivalent. 

Once more it is evident that the greatest part of such 

growth or 90 per cent was accounted for by oil.

Although per capita consumption in the less developed 

countries in much lower than that of the industrialised 

countries, much of the growth in energy consumption has 

stemmed also from oil and its derivatives. Per capita consumption of oil in the Middle East and South America 

went up from 0.45 and 0.46 tonnes in 1968 to 0.85 and 0.62 

tonnes in 1978 respectively. In Asia and Africa, per capita 

consumption of oil is the lowest in the world. It grew 

however from 24 and 35 US gallons in 1968 to 44 and 45 

US gallons in 1978 respectively.

In the Sino-Soviet bloc, per capita consumption of 

primary energy went up from 1 tonne in 1968 to 1.65 

tonnes of oil equivalent in 1978, whereas that of oil had 

risen from 0.26 tonnes to 0.56 tonnes respectively, accounting for 47 per cent of total energy growth from all 

sources.

Thus the rise in per capita consumption of oil in the 

USA between 1968 and 1978 was greater than the absolute 

level of per capita consumption of oil in the Middle East in 

1978. The rise in per capita consumption of oil in the USA 

over the last ten years was more than six times the absolute 

level of per capita consumption of Asia and Africa in 1978. 

These figures highlight four important facts:

1. The consumption by many industrialised countries of much more than their fair share of world 

energy supplies.

2. The continued reliance by all world communities 

on oil as a major source of energy, during the last 

ten years.

3. The need to expedite the rate of finding new 

reserves, and to improve the rate of recovery of oil 

in place.

4. The necessity to rationalise the use of oil.

It is a well-known fact that the declining price of oil in 

real terms over the twenty-year period 1950 1970 was 

responsible for the stagnation of drilling activity in the 

USA and many other areas with good prospects for oil. 

Only new areas where unusually prolific reserves existed 

such as Libya and Abu Dhabi could have been developed 

under these circumstances. The disincentive entailed in the 

then prevailing low price of oil was more than offset by the 

prolific nature of those oil fields themselves, a Godbequeathed attribute. There, the high cost of exploration 

and development was counterbalanced by the low unit cost 

of production resulting from the exceptionally high production rates per well. But even prolific fields have their 

own limitations. The world still needed more oil than those 

fields could produce. Once again, the law of supply and 

demand had, out of necessity, manifested itself as a market 

force after being obscured over a long period of artifical 

suppression. In early 1971, the long-term downward trend 

in the world price of oil was finally reversed and prices had 

commenced their upward course, following the application 

of the Tehran Agreement reached in February that year 

between the oil producing countries and the oil companies. 

Thus, geological and drilling activities elsewhere were 

given a fresh impetus as a result of the changing economics 

of utilisation. But the real momentum was provided when 

the oil prices were substantially raised in 1973 and 1974. 

Drilling activities worldwide have picked up discernibly 

following those price increases. In the United States, which 

accounts for the largest part of world drilling, the number 

of wells drilled since 1974 has about doubled. In 1978 

alone, they increased by 13 per cent. Many oil and gas 

fields with sizeable reserves were discovered in the lower 48 

States. Development of oil fields in Alaska, the North Sea, 

and Mexico was greatly intensified and the salutary effect 

on the world economy of such development is well 

recognised. It remains to be seen, however, whether this 

new trend will be sustained or thwarted by similar disincentives as those which prevailed in the nineteen-fifties and 

nineteen-sixties. The rate of drilling in the United States 

for 1979 is expected to decrease by 5 percent from that of 

1978, following an average rate of growth of 12.6 per cent 

obtained over the previous five-year period. I hope that 

this reduced rate does not mark the beginning of a new cycle of lethargy in drilling activity as a reflection of the new 

surge in world inflation, which would erode the benefits

160 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
arising from higher oil prices. World oil resources are 

finite. The amount of oil reserves discovered so far 

represents about 60 per cent of the world total. In order to 

locate the remaining 40 per cent, great effort will have to 

be exerted mainly by the geologist, in co-operation with the 

industrialist and the petroleum engineer, to overcome the 

formidable obstacles that lie ahead. But although the main 

task of discovery is that of the geologist, others should also 

create the suitable climate for him to function efficiently. 

Market conditions should be coherently restructured 

in such a way as to permit a reasonable degree of predictability, and to ensure stable conditions of investment for 

the planners, as well as the manufacturers of necessary 

equipment and new technologies. This is an essential concomitant to geological and drilling activities. The problem 

of finding more reserves, and new supplies for that matter, 

is more of a geological and economic one rather than of a 

political nature. Nonetheless, it seems that certain quarters 

find it expedient to project the problem in a political 

framework and consequently call for a political solution. 

The so-called political solution cannot increase world oil 

reserves by one single barrel. On the contrary, it will have 

the effect of reducing supplies by impeding the development of reserves. The problem is simply geological and 

economic, and can only be alleviated through geological 

and economic solutions. An effective measure through 

which reserves can more immediately be increased is to 

promote ways and means of enhanced recovery systems. 

Oil recovery methods applicable at present allow only 

about 30 per cent of the oil in place to be produced, leaving 

70 per cent of this precious liquid in the ground. I am of 

the opinion that geologists in close co-operation with 

petroleum engineers can, if given the necessary incentives, 

devise new methods of recovering an additional 10 to 20

per cent of the oil on top of the 30 per cent now extracted. 

By doing so, world reserves could be augmented by no less 

than 200 to 400 billion barrels. Thus, the life expectancy of 

world recoverable reserves may be extended by about 10 to 

20 years.

World oil exports are determined by three factors: the 

rate of world consumption, the rate of reserve discovery or 

additions, and the price. Under all circumstances exporters 

have in the past done their best to provide the world with 

its requirements on a long-term basis. They have done so at 

times when the price of oil was extremely low, when it was 

increased, and also when it declined in real terms. Apart 

from a certain amount of oil reserves that may be termed 

or declared as "National Reserve" and thereby apportioned 

for the consumption needs of future generations in the 

producing countries, the bulk of our reserves will ultimately be earmarked for export to the importing countries. 

Additions to our reserves are therefore looked upon simply 

as an automatic means of increasing supplies to the importing countries. Reduction or stagnation of those reserves 

means lesser availability to the consumer. Whilst the price 

of oil can go up, it can fall in real terms. Whatever effect 

pricing has in determining supplies, the deciding factor, 

ultimately, is the actual amount of oil reserves in existence. 

For under conditions of diminishing reserves, no matter 

how high the price will be, it will certainly fail to induce additional supplies simply because the producing capacity is 

not there. The role of price as a stimulus to additional 

discoveries, and also as a determinant of base-load supplies will, however, continue to be effective. But the major 

roles in determining future incremental supplies in an adequate manner will be those of the consumer and the 

geologist, the first by rationalising his consumption, the 

second by discovering more reserves.

The Growing Oil Scarcity 161
uers-eei 18013-30 IW074-30

R SUN EL43 RZ863 l88-i?992-fl-I-N-D-2L NRSP

Peruvian Andes (upper right) and coastal plain (lower left), 320 km southeast of Lima. The potential for discovery of new mineral 

deposits in the Andes is excellent. Approximate scale 1:1,000,000. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Landsat image 

1645-14255, April 29, 1974.

162 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Challenges and Problems Concerning 

Mineral Resources

Organizing a National Assessment of Mineral 

Resources

Carlos Ruiz F.

Regional Manager, Minera Unionoil Chile, Ltda.

INTRODUCTION

I am pleased to have this opportunity to address the 

U.S. Geological Survey on its one-hundredth anniversary. 

We in Chile are especially grateful to the Survey, since its 

technical cooperation was material in the creation of the 

Chilean Geological Survey in 1957. Also, I am grateful for 

the invitation to participate in this symposium on 

Resources for the Twenty-first Century. I hope that my 

contribution will be of some value for the organization of 

mineral assessments in developing countries.

ORGANIZING A NATIONAL ASSESSMENT OF 

MINERAL RESOURCES

Assessment of the mineral resources of a country involves the evaluation or estimation of its ultimate mineral 

resources, and, therefore, requires an estimation of both 

identified resources and undiscovered resources. Whereas 

the identified resources can be assessed with an acceptable 

degree of accuracy, the evaluation of potential or undiscovered resources is controversial, because it is based on 

speculative concepts and on more or less incomplete data 

of the geological environments of the mineral deposits. In 

spite of this uncertainty, it is worthwhile to evaluate the 

potential of yet-to-be discovered resources as an approximation that can be progressively refined as knowledge of 

the mineral deposits and their geologic settings becomes 

more complete.

The importance of an assessment of potential mineral 

resources is twofold, on one hand for the country itself, 

because this knowledge is essential for planning long range 

mining programs, and on the other hand for the world as a

whole, because no country is self-sufficient in the minerals 

needed for economic development. In all phases of 

development industrial, agricultural, social minerals 

are the basic elements on which everything else is 

dependent.

The development and organization of an entity 

devoted to the national assessment of mineral resources is 

the subject of this presentation. I believe that the most effective entity for this purpose is a national geological 

survey that not only carries out direct studies of mineral 

deposits but also undertakes geological, geochemical, and 

geophysical mapping to establish the environment of the 

deposits and to locate new deposits.

An evaluation of the mineral potential of a nation requires basic knowledge as to the types, distribution, and 

environments of known mineral deposits, which underpin 

any estimates of the total resource potential of the national 

mineral resources. In discussing such an evaluation I 

would like to use our Chilean experiences as example, 

bringing to your attention the methods used in the assessment of some of our key mineral resources. I also would 

like to discuss some of the problems of organizing a national geological survey in a developing country, which is a 

prerequisite for the assessment of the mineral resource 

potential. Again this discussion is based on my own experiences with creation of the Institute de Investigaciones 

Geol6gicas de Chile (Chilean Geological Survey).

Without any doubt, the basic geologic knowledge of 

the country is fundamental to the assessment of its mineral 

resources. The most effective way of gaining this 

knowledge is by systematic geological mapping at medium 

to small scales such as 1:50,000, 1:100,000, and 1:250,000,

National Assessment of Mineral Resources 163
the last scale to be used in areas where previous mapping is 

scant or absent, the condition of most developing countries 

until the past 2 or 3 decades. Larger scale quadrangle 

maps, at scales of 1:25,000 or greater, such as those now 

being produced in North America and Europe, are a 

luxury that few of the developing countries can afford. 

When geologic mapping has progressed to the point that 

the major stratigraphic, structural, and plutonic elements 

are recognized, it is desirable to compile (with additional 

small-scale mapping as required) a small-scale national 

geologic map. In Chile, we found it possible to prepare 

such a map at the scale of 1:1,000,000 after only about 10 

years of systematic larger scale mapping.

Inasmuch as only part of the country was covered by 

larger scale maps, it was necessary to augment the data in 

these maps with reconnaissance mapping and extrapolating of geologic information to unmapped areas. 

Photogeologic interpretation of aerial photographs was 

essential to such extrapolation. Satellite images, which 

have been available since the early 1970s, have proven to 

be of invaluable assistance in interpretative geological 

mapping. Aerial photographs are particularly useful 

because they give a relatively detailed view of the geology, 

whereas the satellite images give a broader picture of the 

regional distribution of the larger geologic units which 

commonly are masked by details shown in the larger scale 

photographs.

In this way it is possible to construct a national geologic 

map that, although surely having many inaccuracies in a 

first issue, will prove to be very useful and can be progressively refined, as more geologic information becomes 

available.

With a national geologic map completed, a second 

phase of investigations, directed toward mineral resources 

assessment, is preparation of a metallogenic map showing 

the locations and types of known mineral deposits on a 

simplified geologic map. Such a map gives a birdseye view 

of the different types of deposits as well as the interrelation 

of mineral deposits and the geologic environment. This 

map may serve to identify targets for mineral exploration, 

for example, areas lacking mineral deposits in belts or lines 

of abundant deposits, and for estimating the potential for 

undiscovered mineral deposits.

Preparation of a metallogenic map requires study and 

compilation of available information about the known 

mineral deposits, including significant occurrences that do 

not presently constitute economic mineral deposits. Information about each deposit may be compiled on specially 

designed cards that can be used either to develop a computer file wherein the various parameters may be evaluated 

or can be manipulated by less sophisticated mechanical 

methods. The following data concerning each deposit are 

essential:

1. Accurate geographic location, including elevation 

above sea level.

2. Host rock or rocks, including lithology, structure, 

and age. If the deposit is associated with an intrusive body, it is advisable to obtain chemical 

analyses and radiometric ages of the igneous rock 

in this body.

3. Morphology and attitude cf the deposit does it 

occur as a vein, manto, stockwork, dissemination, 

or massive ore body; what is the strike and dip; is 

it related to folds, faults, or bedding in stratified 

rocks.

4. Types and distribution of hydrothermal alteration.

5. Mineral paragenesis and zoning of both hypogene 

and supergene mineralization.

6. Size and extent of the deposit available information about resources and reserves should be noted 

as well as historical data about production, which 

together give an idea of total quantity of ore present before mining began.

7. Genesis of the ore deposit, which may be determined by making comparison with similar though 

better-known deposits.

In a country such as Chile, which has had a long 

history of mining, a large part of the information about 

mineral deposits can be obtained from available mine 

reports. However, even here considerable effort must be 

directed to field checking this information and to reconnaissance investigation of deposits for which data are not 

available.

Once the desired information about the known 

mineral deposits is obtained, the next step is to plot the 

mineral deposits and occurrences on the national geologic 

base map, either on transparent overlays or directly on the 

map. For most developing nations, map scales of 

1:1,000,000 or 1:2,000,000 are appropriate. However, in 

Chile we found the scale of 1:1,000,000 to be the best for 

the national metallogenic map. The geologic base map 

should preferably be a simplified version of the national 

geologic map. Such a map is prepared by grouping of 

geologic units that apparently provided similar favorable 

metallogenic environments as well as those that were unfavorable or that represent post-mineral cover. The 

geologic base map should also show major tectonic 

features, especially those having obvious relation to 

mineral deposits.

Map symbols representing the mineral deposits should 

be designed in such a way as to show, as clearly as possible, 

the main characteristics of the deposit, such as

1. Most important metal or metals contained.

164 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
2. Size and morphologic type of deposit.

3. Type and age of host rock.

4. Age of the mineralization.

5. Probable genetic type of deposit, be it epigenetic, 

syngenetic, contact metamorphic, lateritic, 

evaporitic, placer, or other.

The final step in preparing a metallogenic map consists 

of the grouping and delineation of the mineral deposits into metallogenic provinces or mineral belts. The designation 

of these metallogenic units is accomplished by grouping 

deposits according to dominant metal or metals, genetic 

types, paragenesis and minor metal associations, age of 

mineralization, and age of host rock. Once these 

metallogenic units have been delineated, their limits may 

be traced on the overlays. The simplified geologic map 

showing mineral localities designated by informal symbols, 

and overlays showing mineral or metallogenic provinces, 

constitutes the metallogenic map of a country. Such maps 

should be periodically refined as new information about 

mineral deposits and regional geology becomes available.

The metallogenic map constitutes the fundamental 

document for the assessment of the mineral resources of 

the country, especially for the evaluation of the so-called 

undiscovered or potential resources. Nevertheless, in order 

to have a better basis for evaluation of these resources, it is 

advisable to complement the metallogenic map with 

regional geophysical and geochemical surveys, which 

might indicate more specifically the probable existence of 

undiscovered deposits between known mineral districts or 

clusters of deposits.

Climatic conditions must be considered in the evaluation of the undiscovered resources of a country. For example, the existence of lateritic deposits depends on tropical 

climate, whereas supergene deposits of base and precious 

metals are most prevalent in areas of arid to semi-arid 

climate, and evaporites are characteristic of areas having 

an arid climate.

Geomorphologic studies are important to resource 

evaluation. They may give a clue to areas favourable for 

the preservation of secondary enriched zones over primary 

sulphide deposits or for accumulation and preservation of 

placer deposits.

The other component of the national mineral resource 

potential, identified resources, includes reserves and 

resources of both economic and subeconomic materials. 

The quantification of mineral resources, that is, the determination of cutoff grades and reserves, is generally made 

by mining companies rather than by national geological 

surveys. However, this information is critical to an accurate national mineral resource evaluation, and it should 

be made available to the national geological survey or 

other entity responsible for the evaluation. Such proprietary company data can be utilized in the resource 

evaluation without disclosing the source or the mines to 

which they refer. Not only are these data essential to 

evaluating the deposits and districts to which they apply 

but also to less known though similar deposits and 

districts.

By using information about reserves and resources obtained from the mining companies together with that obtained by analysis of metallogenic maps, it has been possible to make a preliminary assessment of some mineral 

resources of Chile. A good example is copper contained in 

the porphyry copper deposits, which probably account for 

more than 90 percent of the Chilean copper resources.

Most of the porphyry copper deposits of Chile are 

distributed in a narrow longitudinal belt located on the 

western slope of the high Andes at altitudes between 1,000 

and 4,500 m. This belt extends from the Chile-Peru border 

in the north, at latitude 18° S, southward to approximately 

latitude 39° S, a length of about 2,300 km. Porphyry copper deposits in actual or past exploitation are Chuquicamata, El Teniente, El Salvador, Potrerillos, Andina, 

Disputada, and Andacollo. Two of the three largest copper 

deposits of the world (the third being the Bingham deposit 

in central western United States) are El Teniente and Chuquicamata, each containing several thousands of millions 

of tons of ore and an estimated several million tons of contained copper. In addition to these deposits that have been 

exploited there are many other porphyry copper deposits in 

the belt that are in various stages of exploration. These include the deposits at Mocha, Cerro Colorado, Quebrada 

Blanca, El Abra, Pampa Norte, and Los Pelambres. Most 

of the deposits, other than El Teniente and Chuquicamata, 

probably have less than 5 million tons of contained copper.

The size and shape of the El Teniente and Chuquicamata ore bodies can be used to estimate the vertical 

extents of the deposits and the amount of material stripped 

by erosion. These parameters can then be applied to less 

well-known porphyry copper deposits to assist in 

estimating their size and depth of mineralization. The ore 

body at Chuquicamata is oval-shaped, being 3,600 m long 

and having a maximum width of 800 m. Exploration has 

demonstrated that the vertical extent of mineralization is 

more than 1,000 meters. At El Teniente, the ore body is 

roughly circular, with diameters varying between 1,500 

and 2,500 m, and the known vertical extension is more 

than 1,200 m. Lowell and Guilbert (1970) reported that 

porphyry copper columns may have vertical extents of as 

much as 3,000 m. Considering the size of El Teniente and 

Chuquicamata, it would seem that the original ore bodies 

had at least this maximum vertical dimension, and it may 

be estimated that the erosion levels in these are between the 

middle and uppermost parts of the porphyry copper 

column.

National Assessment of Mineral Resources 165
The host rocks of the porphyries are of Mesozoic to 

Tertiary age. Post-mineral volcanic and sedimentary rocks 

of Late Tertiary and Quaternary age, which extend over 

part of the area occupied by the main porphyry copper 

belt, undoubtedly cover some deposits that, like the known 

deposit, had previously been exposed by erosion. In the 

northern half of the porphyry copper belt between 40 percent and 70 percent of the area is covered by the postmineral rocks, and about 40 percent of the entire belt is 

covered by post-mineral rocks.

The copper resources contained in most of the known 

porphyry copper deposits and prospects of Chile have been 

calculated on the basis of information provided by the 

largest operating porphyry copper mines, by geologists in 

charge of exploration at developing mines, and by geologic 

reports of several prospects. The results are as follows:

Reserves or identified economic resources

Demonstrated ________________ 6,012,000,000 tons of ore. 

Inferred ___________________ 3,253,000,000 tons of ore.

The average grade of the reserves (identified resources) is 

1.02 percent Cu, and therefore the fine copper contained is 

approximately 94,500,000 tons.

Identified paramarginal and submarginal resources

Paramarginal: 1,970,000,000 tons of ore, average grade 0.51 percent Cu. 

Submarginal: 4,625,000,000 tons of ore, average grade 0.24 percent Cu.

The fine copper contained in these resources is estimated at 

20,900,000 tons.

In addition to these identified resources, the copper 

companies have estimated hypothetical resources in the 

vicinity of or at depth in the operating mines at 

4,500,000,000 tons of ore, of 0.76 percent Cu, containing 

some 34,200,000 tons of fine copper.

Estimation of the resources within the remaining area 

in the porphyry copper belt is more difficult. In view of the 

fact that the belt is far from having been completely prospected, it is likely that many deposits remain to be found. 

The resources in these deposits may be classified as 

hypothetical. As stated above, 40 percent of the area of the 

belt is covered by post-mineral rocks, and it is probable 

that approximately the same percentage of the total copper 

resource of Chile remains in undiscovered buried deposits. 

On the other hand, part of these undiscovered deposits 

may have an overburden too thick for them to be 

economically exploited at this time. Of the remaining 60 

percent of the porphyry copper belt, where pre-mineral 

rocks are exposed, it may be estimated that more than half 

has not been adequately prospected.

In accordance with this reasoning, the resources computed for the known deposits, about 150 million tons of 

fine copper, are in approximately one-third of the area of

the porphyry copper belt. This tonnage figure is believed to 

be conservative. If the deposits in the remainder of the porphyry copper belt, including areas covered by post-mineral 

rocks and those inadequately exposed (including blind 

deposits not exposed by erosion) it is likely that total 

resources are at least three times the identified resources. 

Therefore, it is estimated that the resources of the Chilean 

porphyry copper belt are approximately 450 million tons 

of contained copper, of which 100 million tons are 

reserves.

ORGANIZATION OF A NATIONAL GEOLOGICAL 

SURVEY

As the final part of this presentation, I would like to 

mention the challenges and problems encountered in the 

creation of a national geological survey.

Without doubt, the most difficult obstacle is the lack 

of understanding by governments and by the public of the 

important contributions that such an entity can make to 

economic development. Because developing countries have 

so many urgent problems whose solution requires funding 

from the national budget, it is difficult to convince 

authorities to support a national geological survey whose 

impact is long term in contrast to, for example, social 

reforms that may have an immediate impact on the well being of the people. The only way to alleviate this difficulty is 

through a long and patient campaign to explain to the 

authorities that a national geological survey can provide 

the basic resource data essential to long-term planning and 

economic development of the nation.

Another problem, commonly encountered in developing nations, is the proliferation of small geological organizations that dissipate energy and funds that would be more effective in a single organization. It is therefore necessary to 

demonstrate to the authorities that a centralized national 

geologic survey is the most effective type of organization for 

undertaking a mineral resource evaluation.

Government authorities must also be convinced that a 

major objective of a national geological survey is 

systematic geologic mapping of the country. Such mapping 

is fundamental to all types of geological, geophysical, and 

geochemical mapping, to mineral resource investigations, 

and to studies of natural hazards such as earthquakes and 

landslides.

NEED FOR GEOLOGIC EDUCATION

Finally, it may be said that a problem often encountered in developing countries is the lack of welltrained geologists. It is here that technical cooperation between the developed and developing nations can be most 

effective, as was the case in Chile. In fact, between 1954

166 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
and 1966, a technical cooperation program between the 

U.S. Geological Survey and the Government of Chile, 

under the auspices of the technical aid program of the 

Government of the United States, led to the formation of 

the Institute de Investigaciones Geol6gicas, the first national geological survey of Chile. A broad program of 

geologic investigations was developed and high-level work 

standard established. A major part of the effort of the 

U.S. Geological Survey was in the training of Chilean 

geologists, both in Chile through demonstration geologic 

mapping and in the United States through university level 

post-graduate study.

REFERENCES

Lowell, J. D. and Guilbert, J. M., 1970, Lateral and vertical 

alteration-mineralization zoning in porphyry ore deposits: 

Economic Geology, v. 65, p. 373-408.

Ruiz F., Carlos, 1977, Copper reserves and potential copper 

resources in the porphyry copper metallogenic province of 

Chile, in Marois, Maurice, ed., Towards a plan of actions for 

mankind: Pergamon Press, p. 15-20.

Carlos Ruiz F.

Minera Utah de Chile Inc.

Clasificador 11 Correo 10 Santiago, Chile

National Assessment of Mineral Resources 167
Mineral Industry of Pakistan

S.A. Bilgrami

Resource Development Corporation, Pakistan

INTRODUCTION

The unique position of Pakistan between the Indian 

shield or plate in the east, the Eurasian mass in the north 

and the Iran-Afghanistan microcontinent in the west 

makes for a fascinating geological province in which there 

has been considerable interest during the decade since the 

plate tectonic theory was first defined. In 1960, the Hunting Survey Corporation Ltd., Canada, mapped the 

geology of the southern part of Pakistan at 1:250,000 scale 

and described its geology in some detail. In 1964, the 

Geological Survey of Pakistan published a geological map 

of Pakistan at the scale of 1:2,000,000. However, at this 

time, interpretation of geological features was based on 

geosynclinal theory. Subsequently, when plate tectonics 

replaced geosynclinal theory as a working model, the 

geologic and tectonic position of Pakistan generated new 

interest, particularly with respect to the country's potential 

in mineral resources.

Very broadly Pakistan can be divided into Baluchistan 

in the west and northwest and Indus plains in the east; the 

two areas are separated by an approximately north-south 

trending calcareous zone designated as the Indus Basin, 

which is also called the main axial belt of Pakistan. The 

northern mountain zone lies north of this axial belt. The 

Baluchistan Basin is mainly underlain by arenaceous and 

volcano-sedimentary rocks with large masses of 

calcalkaline volcanics and intrusives. On the basis of the 

Ispikan conglomerate of Tertiary age and the sino-diorite 

ophiolitic complexes of Ras Koh, the Baluchistan basin has 

been sub-divided into the following secondary belts:

a. South Mekran belt arenaceous zone lying south 

of Ispikan conglomerate.

b. North Mekran belt arenaceous zone lying north 

of Ispikan conglomerate up to Ras Koh complex.

c. Ras Koh belt composed of sino-diorite and 

ophiolitic complexes.

d. Chagai belt lies north of Ras Koh belt and is composed of calcalkaline volcanic and intrusive rocks 

with porphyry copper deposits and an intervening 

basin of volcano-sedimentary rocks designated as 

the Dalbandin synclinorium.

The ophiolitic complexes are largely confined to the 

northern and western part of the main axial belt.

The main axial belt representing the Indus basin is 

divided into the Kirthar, Sulaiman and Kohat-Pothwar

Provinces. The mountain zone north of Kohat-Pothwar is 

underlain by igneous, metamorphic and mafic intrusive 

rocks of Tertiary age and metamorphic and sedimentary 

rocks of Precambrian to Tertiary age.

The central axial belt, which unequally divides 

Pakistan lengthwise, is a complex anticlinorium that 

started to develop some time during the Cretaceous. Some 

of the major ophiolites of Pakistan occur on the western 

flank of this belt near Las Bela, Muslimbagh, Fort 

Sandeman (Zhob) and Waziristan. The Ras Koh belt, 

Chagai district, again west of the axial belt, consists 

primarily of calcalkaline magmatic rocks with subordinate 

ophiolites and volcanics ranging in age from Cretaceous to 

Miocene(?).

Powell (1979, p. 5) envisages three stages in the tectonic development of Pakistan: (1) Rapid northward 

movement of India from Late Cretaceous to early Eocene; 

(2) small counterclockwise rotation of India during the 

Eocene; and (3) slower northward movement from the 

Oligocene to the present. He also envisages two convergence zones: a northern one, the Alburz-Hindukush 

and a southern one, the Zagros (Central Iran)-Chitral 

zone. It is generally considered that the ophiolites along 

the central axial belt were emplaced during the Cretaceous 

when India was rapidly moving toward the north.

Only ten years ago Pakistan was considered to be a 

country possessing industrial mineral resources only. Table 

1, which gives estimates of mineral reserves as of the end of 

1970, is inaccurate and incomplete. For example, chromite 

reserves have been grossly exaggerated as there is no real 

basis for many of the reserve estimates.

Table 1 Proven reserves of minerals in Pakistan as of 1970 

______(unit: millions of tons)__________________

Barite ________________

Celestite ______________

China clay ____________

Chromite _____________

Coal _________________

Fire clay ______________

Limestone and dolomite 

Magnesite ____________

Marble _______________

Gypsum and anhydrite _ 

Iron ore (mostly low grade).

.__________ 1.99

__________ .30

.__________ 6.13

.__________ 3.00

.__________ 442.00

.__________ 17.00

.__________ 45,000.00

.__________ 5.00

.__________ very large

.__________ 2,020.00

.__________ 500.00

Rock salt _______________________ over 1,000.00

Sulphur _______________________ .125

Vermiculite ______________________ 11.50

168 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Intensified geological investigations during the last 

two decades, particularly since the discovery of the 

Saindak Porphyry Copper deposits in the early 1960s, have 

demonstrated that Pakistan has a sizeable potential for 

metallic minerals, particularly copper, lead, zinc, 

molybdenum, silver and perhaps tin. After a brief review 

of the existing mineral industry in the country, I propose to 

discuss the mineral potential of Pakistan as it appears 

today. It should be pointed out that due to a lack of detailed knowledge of the geology of the country the ideas 

presented here are not well documented.

At present 15 mineral commodities are being mined in 

Pakistan. Of these, five are being exported (tables 2 and 3). 

As can be seen the total mineral production of the country 

is small and the contribution to the earning of foreign exchange rather insignificant. The mineral industry receives 

only about 0.5 percent of the annual development plan 

allocations and its contribution to the GNP is of the same 

order. This, of course, does not include contributions of 

mineral-based industries such as cement, ceramics, glass 

and fertilizer.

Krinj (fig. 1), about 13 miles north of Chitral town, where 

stibnite occurs in quartz veins in Palaeozoic slates 150-300 

ft below their contact with overlying Cretaceous limestone. 

The maximum thickness of the veins is about 4 ft. Ore is 

extracted by small inclined workings along the veins. Annual production is 150-250 tons. Hand-sorted ore contains 

about 20 percent Sb. The ore is roasted at a small plant 

near the mine to convert the Sb2S3 to Sb2O3 . Another 

deposit at Avirath Gol, about 5 mi west of Krinj, consists 

of veins of boulangerite as much as 3 ft thick at the contact 

between Palaeozoic slate and Cretaceous limestone. The 

veins are irregular, and only a few hundred tons of ore 

containing as much as 40 g of gold and 75 g of silver per 

ton has been extracted. Total reserves at both these 

deposits probably are not more than a few thousand tons.

Stibnite-bearing quartz veins have been reported from 

Qila Abdullah (fig. 1) as occurring in the hanging walls of 

faults cutting slates of probable Oligocene-Miocene age. 

About 50 tons of ore reportedly have been mined. Reserves 

have not been estimated. Similar occurrences reported in 

the surrounding areas have not been studied.

MINERAL OCCURRENCES OF PAKISTAN

Antimony

Mining of antimony ores containing stibnite (Sb2S3 ) 

and boulangerite (Pb5 Sb4Sii) has only been carried out in 

the Lutkho area of Chitral State. The oldest mine is at

Barite

Only small scale mining of barite is being done in 

Pakistan and annual production during the past decade 

has ranged between 1,800 and 16,400 tons per year (table 

2). About a dozen occurrences of barite have been described in the literature (Ahmed, 1969, p. 55-60) but only 

the major deposits are described here.

Table 2 Production of selected minerals from 1971-72 to 1977-78 (unit: thousands of tons)

1975-76 1976-77 1977-78

Aragonite/marble ______________ 15 31 25 35 34

Barite _____________________ 1.80 1.9 7.15 15.606 16.414

Celestite____________________ 2.58 1.15 9.57 2.70 NA

Chromite _____________________ 34 18 12 8.0 9.47

Coal ______________________ 1,255 1,204 1,108 1,113 1,164

Dolomite ___________________ NA NA .356 .270 .274

Fireclay____________________ 22 19 41 39 50.471

Gypsum ____________________ 22 132 299 287 175.02

Limestone ___________________ 2,628 2,846 3,249 4,927 4,184

Fullers earth _________________ 13 16 20 12 11.15

Magnesite ___________________ 1.03 2.504 2.660 1.245 4.288

Rock salt ___________________ 358 354 427 336 610

Soapstone __________________ 4.225 6.239 5.314 __ 7.596 7.84

NA Not available.

Table 3 Principal minerals exported (quantity in tons; value in thousands of Rs.)

1974-75 1975-76 

________________________________________Quantity_________Value_________Quantity_________Value_________Quantity______________

Marble/aragonite _______________ 1,357 1,451.8 232.7 285.5 100 178.2

Marble, grey _________________ 54 89.8 89.4 94.3 188 169.7

Marble, onyx _________________ 8,461 9,865.4 1,407.2 1,969.9 6,624 12,783.1

Limestone, unworked ____________ 2 2.2 568.0 224.0 414 319.3

Sandstone and porphyry stone _______ 1,213 149.9

Rock salt ___________________ 2,118 915.4 4,189.2 911.5 7,904 1,214.0

Chromium ores and concentrates _______ 26,690 9,398.7 15,536.4 9,488.7______23,991______9,543.5

Total _________________ 38,682 21,723.3 22,022.9 12,973.9 40,434 24,357.7

Source: Pakistan Statistics Division.

Value

Mineral Industry of Pakistan 169
60° 62°

38°

36'

34'

32'

30°

28°

26 C

24°

64° 66° 68° 70° 72° 74° 76° 78°

K A S H M I R

ISAMABAD

A

0 50 100 150 200 Miles

EXPLANATION

ANTIMONY _(. MAGNESITE 

BARITE A MARBLE 

COPPER D GYPSUM 

CHROMITE j_ ROCK SALT 

COAL Jf VERMICULITE

170 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Three barite deposits occurring in the Khuzdar area 

are the Monar Talar deposit, the Shekhran hills deposit, 

and the Bankhri deposit. The Monar Talar deposit is exposed along the foot of the Monar hills about 3 mi SSE. of 

the Gunga village (latitude 26°46'N.; longitude 66°31'E.). 

The barite is interbedded with limestone and is generally 

impure. Thickness of the barite varies from 10 to 20 ft at 

the southern end of the deposit to about 50 ft at the northern end. The deposit is about 4,000 feet long. Reserves 

estimated to an arbitrary depth of 100 ft are 850,000 tons 

(Hunting, 1960, p. 409). The Shekhran hills deposit, about 

12 mi W. of Khuzdar and 1-1/2 mi NE. of Shekhran hills, 

is in an area noted for lead mining about a century ago. 

The barite occurs as replacement of a 2-ft bed of sandy 

limestone of Jurassic age. The deposit has a strike length 

of 60 ft, and it exhibits characteristics suggesting that it 

may be at the same stratigraphic horizon as the Monar 

Talar deposit. The Bankhri deposit consists of a vein 100 ft 

long and 3-9 ft wide, which strikes N. 28° E., and is in 

quartzitic rock of Jurassic age. The deposit is being exploited and more than 2,000 tons of ore, the amount of the 

original reserve estimate, has already been mined.

Klinger and Ahmad (1967) described the Khuzdar 

deposits as occurring in the Zidi formation of Jurassic age. 

The barite occurs as a series of tabular lenses parallel to 

and confined to the lower thinly bedded limestone. The 

footwall rock appears to have been leached, silicified and 

oxidised (Klinger and Ahmad, 1967, p. 10). At places this 

altered rock is more than 100 ft in thickness. The barite 

zone is about 4,500 ft long, and barite lenses in the zone 

are 10-80 ft thick and 270-1,200 ft long. Typical analyses 

are given in table 4, sample Ba-1 and Ba-2. Reserves are 

estimated to be about 1.3 million tons.

Table 4 Selected analyses of barite

WEIGHT PERCENT

SAMPLE NO. BaSO4 SiO2

Ba-1 91.86 2.48

Ba-2 95.92 1.84

PR-45 88.42 2.55

PR-47 92.76 1.91

A12O, CaCO4 j

2.73 0.98

.02 .49

5.78

2.64

Fe203

0.02

.03

.15

.09

MgO

1.63

.67

Sp.gr.

4.21 

4.35

Ba-1, Ba-2 — Barite sample from Khuzdar area. 

PR-45, PR-47 -Barite sample from Kohala area.

Source: Ahmed 1969, p. 57 and 59.

The Kundi barite deposits (latitude 26°24' N.; 

longitude 66°36' E.), also in the Khuzdar area, are concordant replacement bodies in folded fossiliferous limestone 

of Jurassic age. The limestone unit is exposed for 1,800 ft 

but barite is confined to the western one-third of the area. 

Five beds of limestone, 1-5 ft thick, have been partially 

replaced by barite. Grades are estimated to be 30-98 percent of BaSO4 . According to Klinger and Richards (1967, 

p. 36), reserves to a depth of 25 ft are 14,000 tons.

In the north of Pakistan the most important barite 

deposit is that of Kohala (fig. 1) occurring as dilation veins 

and lenses in Hazara slates of Precambrian age(?). The 

barite occurs as coarse-grained aggregates of interlocking 

crystals and is quite pure. The deposits now being exploited are estimated to contain 30,000 tons of ore. Typical 

analyses of the ore are given in table 4, sample nos. PR-45 

and PR-47.

Chromite

Alpine type chromite deposits are widely distributed in 

Pakistan (fig. 1). In the north, lenses and at places veins of 

chromite associated with dunite, harzburgite and pyroxenite are found at several localities in the Malkand district. 

The chromite here is of variable grade (table 5, samples 

31-34), and the deposits are mostly small, none containing 

more than 3,000-4,000 tons. An interesting feature of the 

deposits is the range of chemical composition wherein 

some of the ore is actually chromian magnetite (Cr2O3 as 

low as 8 percent and a Cr/Fe ratio of 1:11.5). Another 

locality in north Pakistan (not shown on map) is at 

Waziristan (approx. 33° N., 70° E.) where small lenses 

(containing not more than a few hundred tons) of high 

grade chromite (48 percent Cr2O3 , Cr/Fe ratio of 3:1) have 

been found in a terrain having extensive outcrops of 

ultramafic rocks. Small lenses of refractory grade chromite 

also have been mined in an area 10-12 mi north of Fort 

Sandeman (now Zhob) but here again no significant 

deposit has been found. The chromite in this area is usually 

high in alumina (table 5, samples 29-30).

The largest and best developed chromite deposits occur south of Muslimbagh (formerly Hindubagh) where 

chromite has been mined since 1903. The chromite occurs

Figure 1 Index map of Pakistan showing the principal mineral occurrences.

Explanation

Meting-Jhimpir; 3, Khost-Sharigh-Harnai; 4, Mach; 5, Sor Range-Degari; 6, Makerwal; 7, Salt Range. Copper Deposits: Saindak Porphyry Copper. Gypsum and anhydrite deposits: 1, Hyderabad area; 

2, Saidu Wali; 3, Dera Ghazi Khan; 4, Spin Tangi; 5, Khattan; 6, Chamalang; 7, Barkhan; 8, Kohat; 9, Daudkhel. Magnesite deposits: 1, Sakhakot; 2, Zizha; 3, Nasai; 4, Spin Kan; 5, Sra Salawat; 6, 

Karka; 7, Loya na Pani; 8, Baran Lak; 9, Sinchi Bent. Marble deposits: 1, Khyber Agency; 2, Mardan District; 3, Nowshera; 4, Chagai; 5, Braudadbad. Rock salt deposits: 1, Jatta; 2, Karak; 3, Bhadur 

Khel; 4, Kalabagh; 5, Warcha; 6, Khewra. Vermiculite deposits: 1, Kalat Division; 2, Mohamand Agency; 3, Swat State; 4, Chagai.

Mineral Industry of Pakistan 171
Table 5 Chemical composition of Pakistani chromites selected to show range of composition, expressed in weight percent

Cr2 03

A12 03

Fe2O3 '

TiO2

V2 05

FeO _

NeO

MgO

MnO

CaO _

Si02 _

Total

Cr/Fe

1

58.1

11.8

2.97

.37

.06

11.4

ND

14.6

ND

.06

.52

99.88

3.44

2

58.7

11.8

2.97

.30

.08

11.53

ND

14.5

ND

.05

.24

100.17

3.45

3

59.1

10.2

4.16

.26

.07

10.46

ND

15.2

ND

.05

.21

99.71

3.47

8

56.1

12.7

3.20

.21

.06

13.60

.16

13.9

.18

.07

.38

100.56

2.84

17

57.7

10.7

3.84

.22

.05

13.35

ND

13.0

.09

.08

.22

99.25

2.86

20

52.5

14.9

4.95

.30

.08

12.10

ND

14.50

.19

.08

.28

99.88

2.65

21

53 9

15.1

3.36

.43

.12

13.19

.10

13.80

.02

.08

.15

100.43

2.77

25

57.0

10.7

4.35

.29

.10

13.60

ND

13.10

ND

.24

.42

100.30

2.71

29

44.7

21.0

4.7

.23

ND

13.1

.18

15.3

.19

ND

.55

100.00

2.15

30

44.8

21.3

4.7

.23

ND

13.30

.22

14.80

.18

.08

.39

99.21

2.13

31

34.27

10.32

5.33

.12

ND

13.38

ND

34.78

.05

.96

ND

99.81

1.57

32

35.21

24.08

5.71

.07

0.06

13.03

.10

21.51

.03

.17

ND

99.81

1.62

33

41.51

12.67

4.32

.10

.04

14.93

.11

25.01

.05

.79

ND

99.53

1.84

34

7.94

5.38

57.16

.29

.01

24.22

ND

3.61

ND

ND

.42

99.03

.87

1 Total iron determined as FeO.

No. 1-30 Zhob Valley Chromites (Bilgrami, 1968, table 1, p. 142). 

No. 31, 32 Samples from quarries 1.3 and 1.5 miles northwest of Landi Raud Banda 

Harichard areas, respectively.

ND Not determined.

No. 33 Sample from Quarry 1.5 miles southwest of Sakhakot, Harichard area.

No. 34 Sample from chromite dump at Takht-e-Bhai Railway Station.

in lenses, pods, veins, and bands (Bilgrami, 1961, 1964, 

1968; Ahmed 1969). It is generally friable. Annual production has averaged about 20,000 tons a year, the maximum 

being 39,000 tons. Since most of this chromite is exported, 

the production has varied with international demand, and 

the current level of production is only about 10,000 tons a 

year. High grade metallurgical chromite (Cr2Os, 48 percent; Cr/Fe ratio of 3:1) as well as medium grade chromite 

(40-46 percent, Cr/Fe ratio of 2.6:1) are being produced. 

Typical ore grades are shown in table 5, samples 1-25.

Smaller chromite deposits, mostly high grade, have 

also been worked at Khanozai, about 35 miles northeast of 

Quetta (fig. 1). These deposits are smaller than those of the 

Muslimbagh area. Scattered occurrences of chromite, 

found in the Chagai district, at Kharan, and in the BelaKhuzdar area (26-28 N., 67 E.), have not had any significant production. Reserves at Kharan are estimated to be 

20,000 tons.

Coal

All Pakistani coals are lignitic to sub-bituminous and 

of early Tertiary age. Coal deposits of the Punjab and 

Baluchistan have been affected by erogenic movements, 

and coal beds in these areas have been folded, faulted and 

in places squeezed into lenses. Coal seams range in 

thickness from a few inches to several feet. Most of the 

coals are non-coking and are high in ash, volatiles, and

sulphur. They crumble to powder on drying and are liable 

to spontaneous combustion. The chemical composition of 

the coals is highly variable, not only within the same coal 

field but also within the same coal bed, from one area to 

another. Selected analyses from various coal fields are 

shown in table 6. The seven major coal fields of Pakistan 

are described briefly.

The Lakhra coal field (fig. 1), which extends over an 

area of more than 150 sq. mi, has 3 lignitic coal beds of 

Paleocene age. The coal-bearing formations have been 

folded into an open anticline in which beds on the flanks 

dip less than 10°. The main coal bed is 2.5 to 12 ft thick 

and extends through an area as much as 12 mi long and 5 

mi wide. It lies 150 feet below the surface. The other two 

beds are much thinner (9 in to 2 ft) although the coal is of 

the same quality as that in the main bed. Reserves are 

estimated to be 2,540 million tons of which 160 million 

tons are proven reserves. The chemical composition of coal 

from this field is given in table 6.

The Meting-Jhimpir coal field (fig. 1) extends over an 

area of more than 350 sq. mi, where two coal seams occur 

in sedimentary rocks of Paleocene age that have been subjected to minor faulting. The seams are 9 in to 4 ft thick 

and occur at depths of 50-120 feet below the surface. The 

coal is lignitic and characterised at places by a resin content 

as high as 0.5 percent. Analyses of coals from this area are 

shown in table 6. Reserves are estimated at more than 30 

million tons.

Table 6 Chemical composition of Pakistani coals. Source: from Ahmed, 1969, p. 173-176.

NO.

1

?,

3 

4

5

6

7

COAL FIELD

Meting Jhimpir coal field

Khost-Sharigh-Harnai coal field _____

Sor Range-Degari coal field

Makerwal coal field

Salt Range coal field

MOISTURE

PERCENT

31.8-35.7

15.4-29.8

4.0-11.4 

7.1-12.1

15.9-18.7

4.2- 6.8

3.2- 7.6

VOLATILE 

MATTER 

PERCENT

28.0 0.9

29.8-39.8

34.8-45.3 

34.5 39.4

33.5-39.6

37.1-44.9

26.3 38.8

FIXEDCARBON 

PERCENT

26.8 30.0

31.0-36.3

25.3-43.6 

32.4 41.5

36.0 42.0

36.0-46.0

29.8-44.8

ASH

PERCENT

7.4 10.5

8.2-14.6

9.3-34.8 

9.6 20.3

3.0-13.0

7.0 21.0

12.3 37.7

SULPHUR

PERCENT

3.3- 6.0

3.4- 7.4

5.0- 7.1

3.2 7.4

.5- 5.6

4.0 5.6

3.5-10.7

CALORIFIC

VALUE 

(BTU)

7,010 7,660

7,400- 9,800

8,500-12,400 

9,200 10,300

9,000-11,000

9,500-11,850

7,100 11,100

172 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The Khost-Sharigh-Harnai coal field (fig. 1), which 

extends over an area of more than 300 sq. mi, has three 

workable seams ranging in thickness from a few inches to 8 

ft. The coal bearing formations trend northwest and crop 

out intermittently along a ridge for a distance of about 35 

mi. The coal beds at places dip steeply and have been 

faulted. The coal, which is bituminous, is characterised by 

high volatile matter, has washable ash, and possesses coking properties. Analyses of coal from this field are shown 

in table 6. Reserves are estimated to be more than 40 

million tons.

The Mach coal field (fig. 1) extends over an area of 16 

sq. mi and has three workable coal seams as much as 4 ft 

thick. The coals are in strongly folded and at places faulted 

sedimentary rocks of Eocene age. The coal is of inferior 

quality, having intercalations of shale and a high sulphur 

content. On drying, it crumbles easily to powder and is 

liable to spontaneous combustion. Analyses are shown in 

table 6. Reserves are estimated to be 2 million tons to a 

workable depth of 150 feet.

The Sor Range-Degari coal field (fig. 1) is ten miles 

north of Quetta and covers an area of about 20 sq. mi. The 

coalbearing sedimentary rocks are of Eocene age, and the 

coal beds crop out in the western parts of a syncline that 

has been cut by a fault of large displacement. The beds 

generally dip at angles of more than 45°. The coal is of 

sub-bituminous grade, has comparatively low ash and 

sulphur (table 6), and large-size lumps can be extracted. 

Systematic development of this coal field has been undertaken by several private and public-sector companies. 

Estimated reserves to depth of 2,000 ft down dip are more 

than 20 million tons, although the actual reserves may be 

several times this amount.

The Makerwal-Gullakhel coal field (fig. 1) is located 

about 8 mi west of Kalabagh (longitude 32°55' N., latitude 

71°32' E.), and extends over an area of about 10 sq. mi. A 

single coal bed in the area occurs in an anticline that has 

been locally faulted. The western part of the anticline is 

less disturbed and the strata on this limb dip at angles of 

about 30°. The coal is blocky, and mining yields lump coal 

that is sold at a premium. It is high in volatiles, ash, and 

sulphur (table 6). Reserves of all categories are estimated at 

about 20 million tons.

The Salt Range coal field (fig. 1) is about 100 sq. mi in 

area, extending from 15 mi northeast of Khewra to about 

20 mi north of Khushab. The coal beds occur in folded 

Patala shales of early Eocene age overlain by Sakesar 

limestone. The coal crops out in bold scarps at the edge of 

a plateau. Only one coal bed, ranging in thickness from a 

few inches to 5 ft, is being worked. The coal is of highvolatile bituminous grade, having high ash and sulphur 

content and being liable to spontaneous combustion. 

Analyses of coals from this field are shown in table 6. 

Reserves are estimated at 100 million tons.

In addition to the above coal fields, there are more 

than 15 other smaller fields being worked in Pakistan. 

However, the interest in coal mining in these fields is 

limited because most of the coal is used for firing of brick 

kilns, and demand is small. Use in thermal power plants, 

such as that which the government plans to construct at 

Lakhra, may greatly increase the demand for Pakistani 

coal.

Copper

Even though copper deposits have been reported to occur widely in Pakistan, the recently discovered porphyry 

copper deposits in the Sulphide Valley near Fort Saindak 

(fig. 1) offer the best potential for development.

Sulphide Valley is a shallow north-northwest trending 

depression between latitudes 29° 14' and 29°18'30" N. and 

longitudes 61°35'40" and 61°37' E. The valley intersects the 

northwest trending Mirjawa mountain range near its junction with the sand-covered desert plain that extends to the 

border with Afghanistan. The Fort Saindak area was the 

site of volcanic activity during Paleocene to Oligocene time 

and is marked by a belt (Chagai belt) of widespread 

calcalkaline stocks about 300 mi long in an east-west direction, about 85 mi in maximum width. Several porphyrycopper type deposits have been found in this belt in 

Pakistan and its extension into Iran where the large Sar 

Chashmah copper deposits occur.

The Saindak region is underlain by volcanic rocks, 

sedimentary rocks consisting chiefly of marine shales, and 

fluviatile or deltaic siltstones and sandstones. These rocks 

are intruded by stocks of tonalite, granodiorite and 

adamellite of Oligocene age. Sulphide Valley is traversed 

by the east trending Saindak fault, to the south of which is 

a zone of potassic alteration in an area of siltstone and 

subordinate shale, sandstone, and tuff of the Amalaf formation of Oligocene age. These rocks have been intruded 

by porphyry stocks. The alteration zone contains abundant 

pyrite from which the name Sulphide Valley is taken. This 

alteration extends northward across the fault where it has 

affected agglomerate and tuff in the lower part of the 

Eocene Saindak formation. A local cap of volcanic rocks 

west of the alteration zone is interpreted as an erosional 

remnant of a stratovolcano with which the Saindak alteration zone is genetically related. Much of this stratovolcano 

was removed, probably in Pleistocene time, resulting in the 

development of a pediment on the Saindak alteration zone. 

This produced an area of subdued relief, called Sulphide 

Valley, bordered by prominent ridges of propylitized 

pyrite-free rock.

The three mineralized zones near Fort Saindak, .the 

North, South, and East copper ore bodies, are associated 

with three stocks of tonalite porphyry. The three stocks 

measure 3,000 x 600 ft, 2,500 x 600 ft and 3,000 x 1,200 ft, 

respectively. The stocks possess well defined oval to

Mineral Industry of Pakistan 173
elongate forms and near-vertical walls, but their contacts 

are marked by many dikes and irregular offshoots that 

have intruded the wall rock. Swarms of near-vertical dikes, 

as much as 40 ft wide, are seen in these contact zones. The 

three ore bodies have been hydrothermally altered, having 

central greyish potassium silicate zones in which are most 

of the copper values and which are distinct from the surrounding white quartz-sericite zone. The North and South 

ore bodies have gold and silver values associated with tourmaline veins that cut the tonalite stocks. Also, there is a 

molybdenum-rich halo around the main copper zone. The 

ore bodies also contain significant amounts of pyrite and 

magnetite. The proven reserves in the three ore bodies are:

Cut-off grade A verage grade

North _

South _

East

Total

(percent Cu)

0.25

.25

.25

(percent Cu) 

0.44

.426

.334

(million tons)

28

111

773

412

Gypsum and Anhydrite

Pakistan possesses large resources of gypsum and 

anhydrite (table 1); only the few most important deposits 

may be mentioned here.

One of the largest deposits is in the Dera Ghazi Khan 

hills (fig. 1), which form a part of the Sulaiman Ranges. 

The deposit consists of layers of gypsum as much as 25 ft 

thick and several miles long. The Saidu Wali deposits (fig. 

1), though not being exploited at present, are part of a 

45-500-ft-thick gypsum-bearing sedimentary sequence. 

Reserves of high-grade gypsum are estimated to be at least 

10 million tons.

Gypsum beds 5-140 ft thick crop out in east trending 

linear ridges in a belt 20 miles wide south of Kohat (fig. 1). 

These beds generally overlie massive rock salt and are in 

turn overlain by red clays of Eocene age. An average of 20 

chemical analyses of the gypsum shows the following: 

30.0-32.2 percent CaO, 38.0-46.0 percent SO3 , and 

17.0-20.0 percent H2O. Reserves are estimated to be 5 

million tons.

The Spin Tangi (fig. 1) gypsum deposits in the Sibi 

district of Baluchistan consist of gypsum beds as much as 7 

ft thick in a sequence of green shales and Nummulitic 

limestone of Eocene age. The chemical composition is 

similar to that of the Kohat area, and reserves to a depth of 

50 ft are estimated to be 0.4 million tons.

The Chamalang gypsum deposit in the Loralai district 

is 7 miles southeast of Chamalang village. Thirteen beds of 

gypsum as much as 50 ft thick, separated by inter bedded 

shale and limestone, have been mapped. Reserves to a 

depth of 100 ft are estimated at 7 million tons.

White and grey gypsum associated with bituminous oil 

shale as much as 200 ft thick and red marl and rock salt

beds as much as 800 ft thick occur in the Punjab saline 

series. The lower part of this series is as much as 750 ft 

thick and consists of anhydrite, dolomite, and red 

variegated gypsiferous clay. Reserves of gypsum in the 

Punjab have been estimated at more than 28 million tons. 

Detailed geological investigations, including drilling, 

in the Daudkhel area have proved gypsum and anhydrite 

reserves of over 55 million tons.

Limestone and Dolomite

Pakistan has practically inexhaustible, widely 

distributed resources of limestone and dolomite. Estimated 

reserves in exposed deposits are at least 45,000 million 

tons.

Magnesite

The best known, though not the largest, magnesite 

deposits are those at Nasai (fig. 1) about 20 mi east of 

Muslimbagh in the Zhob district. Cryptocrystalline, milkywhite magnesite veins associated with serpentinized dunite 

occur in a dike about 1,500 ft long and as much as 40 ft 

wide. Many similar though smaller deposits occur in the 

nearby area. Analysis of typical magnesite gives 45.38 percent MgO, 0.38 percent SiO2 , 1.72 percent CaO, 1.4 percent Fe2O3 , and loss on ignition 51.15 percent. The 

magnesite formed by alteration of ultramafic rocks as indicated by fragments of these rocks. Reserves for the area 

are estimated to be 60,000 tons.

Another magnesite deposit near the village of 

Sakhakot consists of irregular veins and lenses of 

magnesite in grey dolomitic limestone of the Abbotabad 

Formation. Steeply dipping veins of magnesite are supposed to have been formed by hydrothermal replacement 

of dolomite or dolomitic limestone. The MgO content 

ranges from 44.9 to 46.7 percent. Probable and possible 

reserves of this grade have been estimated at 1.5 and more 

than 11.0 million tons, respectively.

Marble

Pakistan possesses very large resources of marble, 

which have been classified into three types: (a) crystalline 

calcitic or dolomitic rock, (b) partially crystallized compact limestone, the principal commercial marble, and (c) 

travertine deposits (Ahmed, 1969, p. 117). Only the most 

important deposits are mentioned here.

Deposits of white, pink, grey, and banded marble are 

being worked in the Mullagori area of Khyber Agency (fig. 

1). Two deposits worked are near the Shahidmina and 

Kambela Khawai villages. They are 100-2,000 ft thick and 

the outcrops extend over a strike length of about 2 mi. The 

marble, though jointed, can be extracted in large blocks. 

Reserves are estimated to be in excess of 200 million cubic 

feet.

174 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
High-quality white marble is being worked at Ghundai 

Tarako (latitude 34° 13' N.; longitude 72°25' E.), in Swabi 

Tehsil. Reserves are estimated to be more than 100 million 

cubic feet.

Pink marble with criss-crossing veins of white calcite 

and brownish streaks of ferruginous material is being 

worked at Nowshera village (fig. 1) on the banks of the 

Kabul River. Large blocks can be extracted and reserves 

are estimated at several million cubic feet.

White marble of good quality is found in hills of Bala 

Kot near Naran (34°54' N., 73°39' E.). The marble is not 

being worked due to high cost of transport but reserves are 

several thousand million cubic feet.

High-quality light to dark green travertine onyx is being mined extensively in the Chagai district (fig. 1) and 

marketed under the trade names of aragonite and travertine. The best known localities are Zard Kan, Patkok, 

Juhlli, Butak, Tozghi, Zeh, and Mushkichah (Ahmed, 

1969, p. 120). Most deposits occur in terrace-like spring 

deposits forming small hills. Typical deposits are at Juhlli 

where three terraces 900x100x15 ft, 1,400x40x12 ft, 

and 30x100x10 ft are being worked. The travertine is 

generally interbedded with volcanic ash. Light and dark 

green onyx, cut by veins of brown or yellow ferruginous 

material, is common. Pale green onyx without veins and 

which is translucent in slabs as much as one-half inch 

thick, is found sparingly. The total reserves in the Chagai 

district have not been estimated, although studies indicate 

reserves of several hundred million cubic feet.

Rock Salt

Rock salt is one of the most important mineral commodities of Pakistan, and the quantity of salt available in 

near surface deposits is probably the world's largest. Production of salt during 1971-1978 has been between 336,000 

and 610,000 tons per year (table 2).

The salt deposits of Pakistan are too numerous to be 

considered in their entirety and, therefore, only the most 

important deposits will be briefly described.

The best known salt deposits are those in the Khewra 

area (fig. 1) of the Salt Range, which have been the subject 

of study for almost 100 years; and yet details of age, mode 

of formation, and reserves are far from settled. These 

deposits are in the 2,000-ft-thick Lower Saline Marl 

Member of the Punjab Saline series. The salt is in an irregular dome that has been faulted at a number of places. 

A major north trending fault marks the western limit of 

the salt mines. Seven salt bands or seams are present, three 

in an upper group and four in a lower group. The two 

groups are separated by a 100-ft-thick zone of interbedded 

thin salt layers and marl. The upper group of salt seams, 

called the Buggy complex, consists of the following, from 

top to bottom:

1. North Buggy salt seam, 25-600 ft thick

2. Buggy seam, 150-600 ft thick

3. Sujjawal seam, 60-70 ft thick

At the western end of the present workings the Buggy and 

Sujjawal seams join to form a single seam 270 ft thick. The 

lower group, called the Pharwala complex, consists of the 

following seams from top to bottom:

1. Upper Pharwala seam, 35 — 50 ft thick

2. Middle Pharwala seam, 60 ft thick

3. South Pharwala seam, 45 ft thick

4. Low level tunnel seam, 60 ft thick 

The estimated reserves are in excess of 600 million tons.

The other important salt producing area of the Salt 

Range is Warcha (fig. 1) near a village of that name in 

Sargodah division. Five seams having an aggregate 

thickness of 93-154 ft are present. The seams are separated 

by beds of marl ranging in thickness from 6 in. to 30 ft. 

Reserves are estimated to be over 2 million tons.

The Kalabagh deposits (fig. 1), also part of the Punjab 

Saline Series, are the third most important salt deposits 

that have been developed in Pakistan. Individual seams as 

much as 40 ft thick are located on the Lun Wahan, a 

tributary of the Indus river. The seams are thinner than in 

Khewra, are contorted and lenticular, and dip at steep 

angles. Reserves are in excess of one millon tons.

Salt deposits at Jatta-Bahadur Khel and Karak, in the 

Kohat district, extend over an area of more than 2,000 sq. 

mi. The salt is confined to the Salt Marl Series of early 

Eocene age, which is overlain by a sequence of gypsum and 

bituminous shale. At Bahadur Khel the exposed salt bed is 

350 ft thick whereas at Jatta and Karak it is 100 ft or more 

thick. No estimates of reserves have been made, but at 

least several hundred million tons of salt are present.

Vermiculite

The largest vermiculite deposit is that of the Doki 

River area in Chagai district (fig. 1). The vermiculite here 

is considered to have formed by contact metamorphism of 

basaltic lavas near the Garrok-Sargahr-Osaphi stock and 

related diorite and aplite dikes. The vermiculite formed as 

an alteration product of biotite (Bakr, 1962). Exfoliation 

tests by the Overseas Geological Survey, London, gave the 

following results:

Temperature of test: 775° C. 

Original thickness, inches: 0.06-0.08. 

Final thickness, inches: 0.6-0,7,

Reserves of coarse grained (in books 3/4 x 1-1/2 in) 

vermiculite are estimated at 11 million tons to a depth of 

100ft.

Mineral Industry of Pakistan 175
MINERAL POTENTIAL OF PAKISTAN

Mineral exploration in Pakistan has been viewed in the 

past on a non-genetic model and, as such, the exploration 

efforts were conducted not according to metallogenic environments but according to the distribution of intrusive 

bodies and volcanic rocks. Only recently was it realised 

that a systematic approach to exploration through study of 

known mineral deposits and search for similar deposits in 

well-defined metallogenic provinces or belts might prove 

more fruitful. Shcheglov (1969) first attempted to delineate 

metallogenic provinces of Pakistan on the basis of 

geological environments. In his model he tried to explain 

the chromite, mercury, antimony, copper, molybdenum, 

and gold mineralisation on the basis of the then prevalent 

geosynclinal theory. He recognised the following three ore 

provinces:

1. Chromite belt of the Baluchistan geosyncline.

2. Mercury-antimony belt in the Pishin-Makran 

geosynclinal trough.

3. Copper-molybdenum belt associated with the median massif of the Chagai district.

Unfortunately, the porphyry copper deposits at Saindak, 

the manto-type copper deposit at Talaruk, and the zincsilver Kuroko-type deposit at Makki cannot be adequately 

explained by Shcheglov's model.

Sillitoe (1978, 1979) presented a preliminary plate tectonic model and recognised metallogenic environments in 

Pakistan, excluding the Himalayan region. These environments are characteristic of specific areas, as shown in 

figure 2, which may be considered as target areas for exploration of distinct types of mineral deposits. Subsequently, I suggested that the island arc subduction zone environment be subdivided and that six metallogenic environments be recognized (fig. 2), as follows: 

1. Ophiolite:

a. Ultramafic rocks with chromite are found in 

subduction and collision zones in the 

Muslimbagh-Fort Sandeman-Waziristan and 

Ras Koh areas. The bulk of the ultramafic 

rocks are tectonically deformed and show a 

high degree of alteration. At their base is a 

garnet amphibolite zone that probably 

formed during emplacement, 

b. Ultramafic rocks also are associated with an 

island arc zone in the Bela-Khuzdar area. As 

compared to the subduction and collision 

zones mentioned above, the ultramafic rocks 

here are less altered and chromite ore bodies 

generally contain less olivine and serpentine. 

Chemically, the chromites of both zones are 

similar.

Ore deposits associated with the ophiolitic environment include podiform chromite deposits 

(fig. 1), volcanogenic massive sulphide deposits

Figure 2 Geological map of Pakistan showing areas occupied 

by environments of (1) ophiolite (la, ultramafic rocks in subduction and collision zones; Ib, ultramafic rocks associated with 

island-arc zones), (2) continental shelf, (3) calcalkaline magmatic 

arc, (4) Island arc, (5) area of Chaman intracontinental transform 

fault (F), and (6) Late Cenozoic molasse basin.

(fig. 3), and stratiform manganese deposits. All of 

Pakistan's chromite deposits of economic importance occur in this environment, and it is believed 

that the potential for discovery of significant 

massive sulphide deposits is good.

2. Continental shelf:

During Jurassic time a sequence of rocks was 

deposited on the continental shelf of old Gondwanaland. This sequence, now exposed in the area 

delineated in figure 2, contains barite and fluorite 

deposits (fig. 1). Furthermore, it is believed that 

these shelf carbonates may contain additional 

barite and fluorite deposits as well as Mississippi 

Valley type lead and zinc deposits.

3. Calcalkaline magmatic arc:

Andean-type calcalkaline rocks were emplaced by 

northward subduction and continental collision in 

westernmost Pakistan (fig. 2). Several porphyry 

copper deposits have been found in this region as 

shown in figure 3. Iron deposits of contact 

metasomatic or volcanogenic origin also occur in 

this region.

4. Island arc:

The island arc environment (fig. 2) is characterized by an assemblage of predominantly dacitic or 

rarely andesitic volcaniclastic rocks deposited 

under shallow marine conditions. Associated with 

these rocks are massive sulphide deposits of the 

Kuroko type which contain lead, zinc, copper (fig. 

3), as well as manto and vein-type copper deposits

176 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
62C 66C 68C 70C 72C 76 C

China /

\

V

•-4.

frSri Ldnkq

)Chitral

Peshawar • K A S H M I R

'KX^ >>"' >^- • •""""'

\°Saindak J?l 3

1 R b U \

EXPLANATION

0 50 100 150 200miles

Porphyry copper

1 Koh-e-Dalil

2 Ziarat Pir Sultan

3Dasht-e-Kain

U Kabul Koh 

Copper - Lead -Zinc 

Massive Sulphide

Uranium

• 5 Massive Sulphide 

Associated with 

Ophiolites

A 6 Mississippi Valley 

Type Zinc Silver

A 7 Mississippi Valley 

Type Galena-Zinc

A 8 Mississippi Valley 

Type Fluorite

38C

36{

32C

30C

28C

26C

Figure 3 Index map of Pakistan showing mineral deposits of probable economic significance.

Mineral Industry of Pakistan 177
and porphyry copper deposits such as those near 

Saindak (fig. 1). Bauxite and nickeliferous 

laterites, derived from weathering of the volcanic 

rocks, also are present.

5. Chaman intercontinental transform fault:

Vein-type antimony deposits (fig. 1), associated 

with the Chaman transform fault, evidently 

formed during mid-to-late Cenozoic dynamothermal metamorphism.

6. Late Cenozoic molasse basin:

Sandstone-type uranium deposits occur in a late 

Cenozoic molasse basin that developed during the 

Himalayan uplift. Uranium has been found at 

only one locality (fig. 1), in Dera Ghazi Khan, but 

it is believed that the potential for discovery of exploitable uranium deposits elsewhere in the 

molasse basin is good.

The above metallogenic model is largely the same as 

presented by Sillitoe (1978) and gives an idea of the mineral 

potential of Pakistan. A number of alteration zones, which 

are favourable sites for porphyry copper deposits, have 

been identified by Schmidt (1974) and Sillitoe (1978). Investigations by the Resource Development Corporation 

and Geological Survey of Pakistan indicate that Dasht-eKain and Koh-e-Delil might prove to be porphyry copper 

deposits of economic importance. Similarly, prospects for 

discovery of Mississippi Valley type lead-zinc and silver 

deposits near Khuzdar (fig. 3) and fluorite and barite 

deposits in the shelf carbonate area (fig. 2) are fairly good.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

I am indebted to Waheeduddin Ahmed, Shahid Noor 

Khan, and Zaki Ahmed for a critical reading of the manuscript and many valuable suggestions for its improvement.

REFERENCES

Ahmed, Z., 1969, Directory of mineral deposits of Pakistan: 

Geological Survey of Pakistan, Records, v. 15, pt. 3, 220 p.

Bakr, M. A., 1962, Vermiculite deposits in the Doki River Area, 

Western Ras Koh Range, Kalat Division, West Pakistan: 

Geological Survey of Pakistan, Records, v. 9, pt. 1,7 p.

Bakr, M. A., and Jackson, R. O., 1964, Geological map of 

Pakistan (1:2,000,000): Geological Survey of Pakistan, 

Quetta.

Bilgrami, S. A., 1961, Distribution of Cu, Ni, Co, V, and Cr in 

the rocks of the Hindubagh Igneous Complex, Zhob Valley, 

West Pakistan: Geological Society of America Bulletin 72, p. 

1729-1738.

————1964, The regional distribution of chemically different 

chromites from Zhob Valley, West Pakistan: Geological 

Bulletin of Punjab University, v. 4, p. 1-16.

————1968, Geology and chemical mineralogy of the Zhob

valley chromite deposits, West Pakistan: American

Mineralogist, v. 54, p. 134-148. 

Hunting Survey Corporation, 1960, Reconnaissance geology of

part of West Pakistan: Toronto, Government of Canada,

550 p. 

Klinger, F. L., and Ahmad, M. I., 1967, Barite deposits near

Khuzdar, Kalat Division, West Pakistan: Geological Survey

of Pakistan, Report (unpublished). 

Klinger, F. L., and Richards, R. L., 1967, Barite in Pakistan:

Geological Survey of Pakistan, Report (unpublished), 68 p. 

Powell, C. McA., 1979, A speculative tectonic history of Pakistan

and surroundings: Some constraints from Indian Ocean, in

Farah, A., and De Jong Kees, A., 1979, Geodynamics of

Pakistan: Geological Survey of Pakistan, p. 5-24. 

Schmidt, R. G., 1974, The use of ERTS-1 images in search for

large sulphide deposits in the Chagai district, Pakistan: U.S.

Department of Commerce National Technical Information

Service E74-10726, p. 38, Interim Rept. Pk. 50, 63 p. 

Shcheglov, A. D., 1969, The main features of endogenous

metallogeny of the southern part of West Pakistan:

Geological Survey of Pakistan, Memoirs, v. 7, 12 p. 

Sillitoe, R. H., 1978, Metallogenic evolution of a collisional

mountain belt in Pakistan: A preliminary analysis: Journal

of the Geological Society (London), v. 135, p. 377-387. 

————1979, Speculation on Himalayan metallogeny based on

evidence from Pakistan, in Farah, A., and De Jong Kees, A.,

1979, Geodynamics of Pakistan: Geological Survey of

Pakistan, p. 167-179.

S. A. Bilgrami

Resource Development Corp., Ltd.

9th Floor, Sheikh Sultan Trust Bldg.

Beaumont Rd.

Karachi 4, Pakistan

178 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

C. Nishiwaki

President, Institute for International Mineral Resources Development, Japan

It is my honor to be here to celebrate the Centennial 

Anniversary of the U.S. Geological Survey and I am happy 

to be given a chance to talk here at its symposium.

Listening to many discussions from the first day and 

to papers today, I felt that hardrock geologists can feel a 

little easier about the long-term availability of metal and 

non-metal resources than can softrock geologists who are 

mostly concerned with non-renewable fuel resources.

I shall comment a little on more naive geological matters rather than on complex and difficult discussions of 

geopolitics and economics. After all this is the thing I can 

do best.

Carlos Ruiz emphasized the importance of a National 

Geological Survey in the assessment of mineral resources. 

Considering the mineral resources of Chile, he estimated 

450 million tons of copper to exist there in known and yetto-be-discovered deposits. I accept this estimate as a 

general round figure—a quantity that could supply world 

needs of virgin copper at the present rate of consumption 

for about fifty years if our recycled copper can be increased to 30 percent or more of total consumption. Probably this figure will be refined and revised slightly in the 

future. There are sections of abundance and paucity in the 

porphyry-copper belt of Chile. Ingr. Ruiz pointed out that 

about 40 percent of the belt is covered by post-mineral 

younger volcanic rocks and unconsolidated sediments. 

Tectonic control of these irregularly rich and poor zones is 

a very interesting and challenging subject for investigation. 

I also hope that search for other mineral commodities will 

be emphasized in order to get rid of a largely monomineral Chilean economy. I wonder if there are many signs 

of mineral resources in the southern part of Chile?

Dr. Bilgrami's paper emphasizes the optimistic 

outlook for the discovery of significant new mineral 

deposits in Pakistan, as a result of reinterpretation of its 

geotectonic history in the light of the plate tectonic theory. 

For example, in the early stage of mineral exploration now 

being carried out, it is apparent that deposits of many 

types and of many mineral commodities are juxtaposed in 

the Chagai magmatic belt of the Lut-Helnand-Makram 

microcontinent and also on the eastern side of the Chaman 

intracontinental transform fault. In the Chagai belt, where 

we have porphyry copper deposits and Kuroko-type 

massive sulphide deposits, I wonder if there is any international geologic cooperation among Pakistan, Iran, and

Afghanistan. The area along the Chaman fault includes 

podiform chromites, massive sulphides, and Mississippi 

Valley type lead-zinc deposits. The explanation for their 

genesis and zoned proximity is fascinating. The occurrence 

of auriferous antimony in a quartz vein is also interesting 

and seems to warrant more study because of the gold. It 

could be a small but a rich mine.

The area between the State of Peshawar and the 

Karakoram Mountains should have an abundance of early 

Tertiary felsic to intermediate igneous intrusions. It would 

be very exciting to know what kind of metallogenesis has 

taken place at this most typical collision of plates, involving underthrusting of the Gondwanic subcontinent against 

Eurasia. I feel especially the importance of this area 

because of knowing the metallogenesis of the Chagai zone 

as a part of a microcontinent that collided against the 

Eurasian continent.

Indeed, it can be said that Pakistan holds one of the 

keys for solving many of the geotectonic problems pertaining to metallogenesis and resources development in the 

next century.

As Ingr. Ruiz pointed out, one of the delicate problems is the role of a National Geological Survey in mineral 

exploration. Without positive results such as discoveries of 

mineral deposits early in the exploration program, government authorities tend to lose interest in the organization 

with a resultant loss in financing. In Pakistan, the 

Resources Development Corporation was created to 

alleviate problems of this type. Such a corporation, which 

may depend entirely on government financing or joint 

government and industry financing, can utilize geological 

information furnished by the National Geological Survey 

to guide exploration programs that are beyond the financial capability of the Geological Survey.

Finally, as Ingr. Ruiz pointed out, one of the most important factors determining the success of a national program of mineral exploration is the training of the people 

who will carry it out. Such training must at a minimum include a college undergraduate education on top of the 

broad base of elementary to middle school education as 

well as on-the-job professional training and self-education. 

Additional graduate-school education is necessary, in addition to special practical training. Style and method of 

education have to be fitted to the country's social and 

economic style and condition. I have been managing a

Discussion 179
unique school in Japan to provide higher-level specialized C. Nishiwaki

training to people who are concerned with mineral explora- President

, , T . , . , Institute for International Mineral Resources Development tion and development. I am interested in learning about 1650 _ 3 , Kamiide, Fujinomiya-shi

other training programs of this kind. Shizuoka-ken, 418-02, Japan

180 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

C. W. Sweetwood

Regional Resources Officer, Department of State

Ingr. Ruiz gave an excellent description of the mineral 

wealth of Chile, terminating by citing the obstacles that he 

foresees in his own country: he stressed government 

obstacles. This is something that is not known to any of us 

but is critically important to all of us.

Dr. Bilgrami, although not actually going into that 

line of thought, did the same. He gave us an excellent 

description of the small deposits of Pakistan as we know 

them now, of chromite, antimony, and the rather large, 

and what could become important, coal deposits of that 

country. Earlier the country was purely an industrialmineral producer. Now they are beginning to take advantage of the changes that they are beginning to see. This includes government obstacles.

We also should consider the problems and challenges 

of the minerals economist and his role in the geological and 

marketing field; the challenges to the producer and exporter of a given mineral commodity, the importers of the 

commodities, and finally the policy makers themselves. 

We have seen many changes, and will see many more. Ten 

years ago we would look at a mineral deposit and it would 

not be ore. It is ore today. These are now resources because 

of changes. Marketability of ores has changed dramatically in the last ten years, but this is something we must 

consider in every bit of work to do. Cost increases go into 

the determination of whether a resource is a resource, or 

whether it can be marketed.

Geologists and mineral specialists have played a secondary role in government planning until recent years, but 

now this has changed. It has changed very dramatically in 

certain countries, but probably the change is one that has 

disturbed almost all of you, because I think all of you at 

one time or another have been involved in this change. 

That is where you can take in your mind a resource, convert it into an exploitation, and then find that the 

economic/commercial considerations are subordinated to 

political considerations —a dangerous, dangerous thing. It 

means that the geologist, the mineral economist, the planner who has mining and minerals background and experience, need to play a far more important role in their 

government than they have been given the opportunity to 

do in the past.

Policy makers are now beginning to see the vast importance of the minerals industry and are turning more

and more to the geologist to say, "please help me, guide 

me, advise me." I would like to hope that you yourselves 

could take this aggressive, reactionary role and be of help. 

We need to keep in mind that all countries' needs and 

demands are different. What we need, therefore, would be 

a balanced policy of maintaining the resources, conserving 

the resources, but exploiting those resources to the limit 

that is possible for your own country. Don't cannibalize or 

over-exploit a given resource or mine, but certainly don't 

overlook it either. Don't put it into a reserve that no one 

can see an early return on. In other words, your own 

government would consider whether you wanted that 

resource for domestic use, or whether you want it for export only, or both. This is very important.

A drive is always at hand to develop self-sufficiency in 

mineral commodities. I submit that this is not necessary. I 

feel very strongly that some countries have gone too 

strongly toward the self-sufficiency desire. What I do feel 

is that minerals trade is important, where you sell a commodity you have and buy in return, not with the effort 

specifically of developing a mineral self-sufficiency in one 

commodity, whether it be chromite or manganese, or copper or salt.

Dr. Bilgrami made an interesting point. The mineral 

industry of Pakistan today contributes about six-tenths of 

1 percent to the gross national product, a low percentage 

but not altogether unusual. The unusual might be the other 

way, somewhere in the range of 15-20 percent. Such an example would be South America's mineral industry that 

contributes this amount to its gross national product. In 

many countries, mineral industry contributes in the range 

of 8-10-12 percent of their gross national product.

There is a vast gap that exists here that can be filled up 

to varying degrees by the developing countries in 

reassessments of your resources and in your efforts to 

move into a world market. The world market is a very unsympathetic, a very impersonal, a very erratic, and certainly a very complex form. It is a dangerous area; it exists, 

however.

It is not sufficient to develop only the resources of a 

country; they have to be marketed in this unrelenting, 

vicious thing we call the world market. On an individual 

basis, country by country, mine by mine, resource by 

resource, minerals can be used as a tool in the creation of a

Discussion 181
balanced long-range trade policy suitable to each in- C. W. Sweetwood

dividual country and to the extent to which it can con- Re8ional Resourfs American Consulate/Johannesburg 

tribute to the world market. In this area the challenges are Department of State

very great, and I think exciting. Washington, D.C. 20520

182 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Preliminary Study of Mineral Resources of Latin 

America

G. P. Salas

Director General, Consejo de Recursos Minerales, Mexico

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this work is to analyze the position of 

Latin America's mineral industry, not only to learn of its 

contribution to international mineral markets, but also as 

a contribution to world markets in the future. A common 

concern of Latin American countries is the necessity of increasing exploration and development programs in order 

to best utilize natural resources, especially minerals, to aid 

in industrialization and raising the standard of living of the 

people.

The past two decades have witnessed an explosion of 

geological information in Latin America and the development of sophisticated mineral exploration programs that 

have led to discoveries of major new mineral deposits in 

many countries. During this time many of the countries 

have prepared national geologic maps, and most countries 

having a significant mineral industry also have 

metallogenic maps. New geologic maps of South America 

and the Caribbean have been published. Metallogenic 

maps for South America and North America (including 

Central America and the Caribbean Islands) are in final 

stages of completion, and will be published in the next year 

or two. Information provided by all these maps has proven 

to be of invaluable assistance to mineral exploration programs and will continue to assist exploration during the remainder of this century.

MINERAL RESOURCES AND PRODUCTION IN 

LATIN AMERICA

There is no integral up-to-date source of information 

regarding mineral resources in Latin America. As a consequence, the information about production (tables 1 and 2) 

and reserves (tables 3 and 4) has been compiled from 

several sources as shown on the tables. The information in 

the tables is that which is available for 27 nations in Latin 

America. Other small nations in the Caribbean are not included because they either do not have recorded mineral 

production or production figures were not available.

Of the 27 Latin American countries reported, only 

Mexico with a production of 33 mineral commodities and 

Brazil with 37 show an adequate base of metallic and 

nonmetallic minerals required for economic and industrial

development. Other countries such as Argentina, Bolivia, 

Chile, and Peru have the resources for a more diversified 

mineral industry but for various reasons now import some 

of the mineral commodities that could be produced locally. 

Among metallic minerals, 16 countries produce gold; 

12 countries produce silver, and Mexico and Peru, both 

with annual production of more than 1,500 tons of fine 

silver are the major producers, Chile, which produced 226 

tons of silver in 1976, is third and Bolivia which produced 

183 tons in 1977, is fourth (table 1); copper is produced by 

7 countries of which Chile, Peru, and Mexico are the 

major producers. The largest quantities of iron ore are 

produced by Brazil, Venezuela, and Chile, but Mexico and 

Peru also have significant production. Chile is the major 

producer of molybdenum, recovered as a by-product of 

porphyry copper mines, but Mexico and Peru, which are 

expanding copper production also are increasing recovery 

of by-product molybdenum from operating copper 

deposits and from new deposits.

Of the nonmetallic minerals listed in table 2, salt, gypsum, and sulfur are produced by the largest number of 

countries. Brazil and Mexico produce the widest variety of 

nonmetallic minerals. Actually, Mexico produces 29 

nonmetallic minerals rather than 17 as reported by the 

U.S. Bureau of Mines in its Commodity Profiles for 

1978-79 (U.S. Bureau of Mines, 1980).

As can be seen in tables 3 and 4, information about 

reserves of minerals in Latin America is scanty, and in 

some cases the reserve figures indicate an order of 

magnitude of reserves rather than measured or estimated 

reserves. Although many of the reserve figures cited in 

these tables are not as accurate as one would wish, they are 

of value because they indicate the distribution of some of 

the major mineral commodities. Reserves of some metallic 

mineral commodities are as follows:

1. Iron —Reserves of iron ore in Brazil are 

estimated at 16.3 billion metric tons, and in 

Venezuela 1.3 billion metric tons. Both countries 

are net exporters. Mexico, with approximately 

159 million metric tons of iron metal content, is 

self-sufficient, but intensive exploration underway should lead to new discoveries that will increase reserves.

Mineral Resources of Latin America 183
2. Lead —The principal resources of lead in Latin 

America are in Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Bolivia, 

and Argentina. Brazil has reserves of 2.3 million 

metric tons of lead whereas those of Mexico are 

estimated to be 5 million metric tons and those of 

Peru are 4 million metric tons of lead.

3. Manganese—Reserves of manganese in Brazil 

have been estimated to be 39.64 million tons 

whereas Mexico has only 0.6 million metric tons 

and Chile 0.4 million metric tons.

4. Mercury —Mexico is the only Latin American 

country now producing mercury. In 1978, mercury reserves in Mexico were estimated to be 261 

million flasks of 76 pounds each.

5. Tin —Bolivia has an estimated reserve of tin of 

980,000 metric tons, Brazil 600,000 metric tons, 

Argentina 5,000 metric tons, and Mexico 2,000 

metric tons. It is expected that significant new tin

deposits will be found in Brazil, and Mexico is 

launching an all-out exploration campaign for 

tin.

6. Silver—Many countries produce silver, but 

reserve estimates are available only for Mexico 

and Peru, which are 950,000 and 609,996 troy 

ounces of silver, respectively.

Distribution and reserves of some of the nonmetallic 

minerals are as follows:

1. Asbestos—No reserves of asbestos are listed in 

table 3, but Mexico has recently blocked out six 

million tons of 12 percent cross-fiber chrysotile, 

and more than 100,000,000 tons of slip fiber. 

Recently, Colombia has reported large resources 

of chrysotile, and will soon start production of 

refined chrysotile in a 20,000-ton-per-year capacity plant.

Table 1 Production of metallic minerals' in Latin America for 1976, 1977 or 1978 

[Quantities are given in thousand metric tons, except as noted.]

Antimony

Arsenic

Beryl ore (tons)

Bismuth (tons)

Cadmium

Chromite

Cobalt

Columbium

Copper

Gold (kg)

Ilmenite

Iron

Lead

Lithium (tons)

Manganese

Mercury (tons)

Molybdenum (tons)

Nickel

Platinum (kg)

Rare earths

Rhenium (kg)

Rutile

Selenium (tons)

Silver (tons)

Tantalum (tons)

Tellurium (tons)

Thorium

Tin (tons)

Tungsten (tons)

Uranium (tons)

Vanadium (tons)

Yttrium (tons)

Zinc

1 Metal content. Ilmenite in

2 Less than 1 ,000 tons.

3 Less than 1 ton.

\RGENTINW

3°

(2)

373'

160'

40'

31'

373'

54'

(3)

600'

82-

40'

40'

concentrates:

BOLIVIA BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIA COSTA CUBA DOMINICAN ECUADOR

RICA REPUBLIC

14°

368°

638°

305" 31'

1'

4h 8"

2' 1,061° 3'

896' 5,700' 4,017' 9,264' 298' _ 12,870' 361'

5'

89,412° 7,649" 237'

23' 48" 2'

54°

12' 1,088° 24'

11,853"

6" 36° 24'

777°

200'

105'

16°

183" 7' 226' 3' 28' 1'

68°

P

30,000° 7,000°

2,993° 1,134°

861°

23°

60" 47" 5'

manganese in ore for Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and Peru. • 1978

* 1977

< 1976

184 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
2. Barite —The largest known deposits of barite are 

in Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. Brazil has reserves 

of 3,629,000 tons. Reserves of barite in Mexico, 

including recently discovered deposits that have 

not yet been fully explored, are estimated at 

more than 40 million metric tons. Significant 

barite deposits also occur in Argentina and 

Chile, but reserve data for these countries are not 

available.

3. Bauxite —Brazil has an estimated reserve of 2.5 

billion metric tons of bauxite whereas Guyana 

has 1 billion, Jamaica 2 billion, and Surinam 480 

million metric tons. Haiti also has sizeable 

reserves. Haiti and Jamaica are not listed in the 

mineral commodity profiles for 1978-79 (U.S. 

Bureau of Mines, 1980). Recent discoveries in 

Venezuela suggest that this country may also 

have large bauxite reserves.

4. Bentonite—Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru 

have produced bentonite, largely for internal 

use. Estimated reserves of bentonite in Mexico 

are 1,270,000 metric tons; reserves of bentonite 

in the other countries are not known. Other 

countries in Central and South America probably have exploitable bentonite deposits and 

total resources of bentonite in Latin America are 

probably large.

5. Coal-Brazil, Chile, Peru, Venezuela, and Colombia produce relatively small quantities of coal 

at present, and reserve data for these countries is 

incomplete and at best can be considered as, 

rough estimates only. Reserves are as follows: 

Brazil, more than 20 million tons; Chile, more 

than 11 million tons; Colombia, more than 300 

million tons; Mexico, 1.6 billion tons; Peru, 1 

million tons; and Venezuela, 200 million tons.

EL GUATEMALA GUYANA HONDURAS MEXICO NICARAGUA 

SALVADOR

l e _ 2°s°

978°

PERU

(2)\ e

544'

(2)

SURINAM VENEZUELA

3' 87°

93' 487' 71' 6,283°

3,556°

18' 170°

188°

6°

76°

80"

5 c 92c 1>579.

73°

234°

1' 25' 245°

(2) 336°

2,359' 2,511' 1' 451'

4,021* 11,288'

1' 190°

2'

455"

18°

6' 1,555°

12'

273'

14' 570°

Sources: UNO/ECLA, Economic Study for Latin America, 1977.

U.S. Bureau of Mines, Minerals Yearbook, 1976; Mineral Commodity Summaries, 1979. 

Ministerio das Minas e Energia do Brasil, Balance Mineral e Brasileiro, 1978. 

CRM, Anuario Estadistico de la Mineria Mexicana, Mexico, 1978.

Mineral Resources of Latin America 185
Table 2 Production of nonmetallic minerals 1 in Latin America for 1976, 1977 or 1978 

[Quantities are given in thousand metric tons, except as noted.]

ARGENTINA BOLIVIA CHILE COLOMBIA COSTA 

RICA

CUBA DOMINICAN ECUADOR EL GUATEMALA 

REPUBLIC SALVADOR

Asbestos

Barite

Bauxite (dry)

Bentonite

Boron

Coal (bituminous)

Diamond (kg)

Diatomite

Feldspar

Fluorspar

Fuller's earth

Graphite

Gypsum

Lime

Magnesite

Mica (tons)

Phosphate rock 

(P2 05 ) ______

Potash

Quartz

Salt

Saltpeter _

Sodium sulfate

Strontium

Sulfur

1'

40'

115'

100"

615'

15'

60'

40'

554' 1'

3,443'

l c

1,200'

36"

1'

46' 15'

92" 

54' 

1,000° 

119'

2,902' 

11'

109' 

64'

7'

384' 

5,442" 

141" 

2,000"

1996

181" 

2,199'

25'

17'

27° 

1,165'

120'

725"

15'

428' 

565" 

13"

13" 

47'

' Includes silicon and silicon materials. 

2 Coal run of the mine.

3'

516'

1<

3,266'

1'

30' _ 30'

199' 85' 127' 1' 6' 13'

2'

41'

15' _ 16'

893' 20' 40' 11'

33' 28' 6'

• 1978

' 1977 

• 1976

6. Fluorspar, feldspar, and diatomite —Mexico, the

world's major producer of fluorspar, has 

reserves of at least 35.3 million tons. Mexico also 

produces feldspar and diatomite, and estimated 

reserves of these substances are 3.02 million tons 

and 1.18 million tons, respectively. These 

mineral commodities exist in other Latin 

American countries but reserve data are not 10. 

available.

7. Magnesite — Reserves of magnesite in Brazil are 

estimated at 136 million tons. Mexico is beginning to produce magnesite from deposits in an 

ophiolitic sequence that have estimated reserves 

of 185,000 tons.

8. Phosphate rock —Only small amounts of 

phosphate rock are produced in Latin America. 

Brazil has estimated reserves of 199,000 metric 

tons whereas Mexico has proven reserves of 800 11. 

million tons and potential resources of several 

billion tons, chiefly in the recently discovered 

phosphatic beach sands on the Pacific coast of 

the Baja California Peninsula and phosphoric 

rocks of mid-Miocene age on the Baja California 

Gulf coast north of La Paz City.

9. Quartz —Brazil has a potential reserve of 1.8

million tons of high-purity crystalline quartz 12. 

suitable for the manufacture of optical glass,

whereas Mexico has reserves of more than 4.26 

million tons of high-purity quartz sands suitable 

for the manufacture of glass and chemicals. 

Many other countries have quartzite, sandstone, 

and quartz sands suitable for window and bottle 

glass, and some of them undoubtedly have highpurity materials suitable for special glasses. 

Salt —Large resources of rock salt exist in Colombia, Chile, Bolivia, Argentina, and Mexico. 

In addition, large quantities of salt occur in 

brines of salt pans in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, 

and Peru. Salt is recovered from seawater in 

Mexico, which is the world's largest producer of 

such salt, and in Ecuador, Peru, and other countries in Latin America. Reserve data for salt 

resources of these countries are not available, but 

supplies are virtually inexhaustable. 

Sodium sulfate —Large resources of sodium 

sulfate exist in brines in salt pans in Argentina, 

Bolivia, Chile, and Mexico. In addition, Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile have recoverable sodium 

sulfate in the saline crusts of salt pans. The 

Chilean nitrate deposits contain an estimated 200 

million tons of recoverable sodium sulfate (written commun., George E. Ericksen, 1980). 

Strontium —Mexico is the world's largest producer of strontium which is mined as the mineral

186 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
GUYANA HAITI HONDURAS JAMAICA MEXICO NICARAGUA PANAMA PARAGUAY PERU SURINAM URUGUAY VENEZUELA

23"

3,000" 660' _ 11,400"

34"

6,755" 2

22"

127"

960"

39°

52°

1' 289' 1,757" 15'

76"

401"

322"

532" '

31' 5,635° 14' 13'

240"

33°

1,817°

290"

5,000" 39'

27°

89'

35'

17'

4' 1'

16C 350' 171'

4'

80'

304' 300'

16' 2' 90'

celestite, for which reserves are estimated at 

about 1 million metric tons.

13. Sulfur —Large deposits of sulfur associated with 

salt domes exist in Mexico, which is one of the 

largest producers of sulfur in the world. 

Estimated reserves in these deposits are 90 

million tons. Smaller deposits of native sulfur 

associated with modern volcanoes in Mexico, 

Central America, and the Andean countries, including Argentina, of South America. Reserve 

data for these deposits are not available.

PROGRESS OF THE LATIN AMERICAN MINING 

INDUSTRY AND ITS IMPORTANCE IN 

WORLD PRODUCTION

Prior to 1975, the value of Latin American metallic 

mineral production was equivalent to approximately 25 

percent of total world production. In later years, Latin 

America's share has decreased because of two principal 

factors: (1) Canada, Australia, South Africa, and other 

countries of the African continent have opened large new 

mines for iron, copper, nickel, and other metals, and (2) 

political and economic problems in some countries have inhibited development of new mines. Currently, conditions 

have improved, and it is expected that the early 1980's will 

see a large increase in mineral production in Latin

America. For example, production of large volume commodities such as bauxite is expected to begin in Brazil and 

Venezuela, and production in Guyana should increase. 

Colombia and Venezuela plan major increases in coal production. Mexico has recently increased iron and steel production to 7 million tons per year, with accompanying increase of production of iron ore and coal. Opening the La 

Caridad copper deposit will probably increase copper production in Mexico from 75,000 metric tons per year to 

150,000 tons per year in the early 1980's.

Nonmetallic minerals and coal will show marked increases in the 1980's. New cement plants are being constructed in Latin American countries, and large increases 

in production of limestone and gypsum may be expected in 

the 1980's. Phosphate production of Mexico, utilizing the 

recently discovered Baja California deposits, will certainly 

be increased by several hundred thousand tons per year. 

Production of phosphate rock should also begin in Colombia, Peru, and Argentina in the 1980's. Mexico will begin 

to produce potash at the rate of about 100,000 tons per 

year in 1982. Argentina can be expected to increase coal 

production from approximately 1.5 million tons in 1978 to 

3.5 million tons in 1981. It is likely that Colombia will 

become one of the major coal exporters in the 1980's. 

Mexico will increase barite production from approximately 

150,000 tons per year to 850,000 tons by 1981. Production 

of the strontium ore, celestite, will probably increase in the

Mineral Resources of Latin America 187
Table 3 Metallic mineral reserves (metal content) in Latin America for 1978 

[Quantities are given in thousand metric tons, except as noted.]

ARGENTINA BOLIVIA

Antimony 367

Bismuth _ 14

Cadmium

Chromite

Columbium (Nb2O5 )

Copper

Iron ore

Lead

Lithium

Manganese

Mercury (76-lb flasks)

Molybdenum

Nickel

Platinum (thousand t. oz)

Rare earths

Rhenium

Rutile (TiO2 )

Selenium

Silver (thousand t. oz)

Tantalum

Tellurium

Thorium

Tin _ 5 980

Tungsten 39

Uranium

Vanadium

Yttrium

Zinc _

Zirconium and hafnium

BRAZIL

1,190

8,165

625

16,329,000

2,359

39,643

417

318

55,000

3

54

600

18

2

4,536

CHILE COLOMBIA CUBA DOMINICAN MEXICO 1 REPUBLIC

218

5

14

97,069 25,000

159,000

5,000

1,270

408 600

261,074

2,449 90

816 3,084 998

1,000

1,179

100

39 5

950,000

2

20

225

136

4,000

2

PERU VENEZUELA

63

5

31,751

1,270,000

4,000

227

181

13

609,996

3

7,000

Estimated by Consejo de Recursos Minerales, Mexico.

Table 4 Nonmetallic mineral reserves in Latin America for 1978

[Quantities are given in thousand metric tons, except as noted.]

ARGENTINA BOLIVIA BRAZIL

Barite _ 3,629

Bauxite _ 2,500

Boron2 _ 9,072 9,072

Feldspar

Fluorspar 726 816

Magnesite _ _ 136,078

Phosphate rock (P2O3 )

Potash (K2O)

Salt _

Sulfur

CHILE GUYANA JAMAICA MEXICO1 PERU SURINAM

14,000 3,629

1,000 2,000 _ 490

1,270

9,072 10,000 9,072

1,000,000

1,180

3,020

35,380

320

1,418

1 14,062

363

185

800,000

9,072

4,258

141,056

365

90,000

Estimated by Consejo de Recursos Minerales, Mexico. 

• 20% boron (potential).

188 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
early 1980's from 35,000 tons per year to more than 60,000 

tons per year. The demand for bentonite for drilling muds 

in Mexico is expected to increase greatly due to requirements of the Mexican oil industry, and it is expected 

that production of bentonite in Mexico will increase to 2 

million tons per year or more during the early 1980's.

The advantage of an increase in mineral production in 

semi-industrialized countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, 

and Mexico, is that on the one hand export of minerals 

gains foreign exchange and on the other utilization of 

minerals by local industry creates new jobs and investment 

opportunities. Requirements for electrical power will grow 

and new hydroelectric, thermoelectric, and nuclear power 

plants will have to be built in the 1980's.

When speaking of growth in the mineral industry of 

Latin America, one must consider the variations in the international mineral market. The rule of supply-anddemand is certain to continue. Thus, an effort must be 

made in Latin America to increase internal consumption 

by industries that utilize the minerals in the manufacturing 

of products for local consumption and for export. Such is 

the case of Mexico where rapid industrialization during the 

past 2 or 3 decades has changed the situation from one in 

which nearly all mineral commodities (except construction 

materials) were exported to the present when 65 percent of 

the total mineral production is consumed by local industry. 

Diversification of local industry requires the search for 

new minerals that can be produced locally and reduce imports. For instance, Mexico is a consumer of nickel, 

chrome, titanium, tin, asbestos, ceramic talc, potassium, 

bauxite, and alumina, all of which must now be imported. 

It would be of great economic benefit if at least part of 

these minerals could be supplied from local sources.

TECHNOLOGIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE MINING 

INDUSTRY IN LATIN AMERICA

The mining industry may be divided into tfrree 

categories: large, medium and small scale operations. 

However, parameters for classification vary radically. A 

small mine in Canada might be a large one in Latin 

America, a large gold mine might be one producing a few 

hundred tons of ore per day wherein a large copper mine is 

generally considered to be one producing tens of thousands 

of tons of ore per day. Nevertheless, a scale is needed as a 

means of comparing sizes of mining operations. The Mining Magazine (January, 1978, p. 52), shows a table wherein 

mines in Central and South America are placed in five 

categories according to annual productions as follows: 

150,000-300,000, 300,000-500,000, 500,000-1 million, 1-3 

million, and greater than 3 million tons per year. In most

Latin American countries, a medium-size operation probably would be one having a production of 60,000-450,000 

tons of ore per year, a small operation would produce less 

than 60,000 tons of ore per year, and a large operation 

would produce more than 450,000 tons of ore per year.

Table 5 lists numbers of medium- to large-scale mining 

operations in Latin America. A minimum size for a 

medium-scale operation was taken at 150,000 tons of ore 

per year because reliable data about production from 

smaller mines is lacking. As can be seen, Brazil has 35 

medium to large open pit operations, Chile 12, Mexico 9 

and Jamaica and Peru, 7 each. Other countries have less 

than 7, and some, like Nicaragua, do not have any. Brazil 

has the greatest number of large open-pit mines, 10 of 

which have capacities greater than 3 million tons of ore per 

year and 11 others have capacities of 1-3 million tons per 

year. Table 5 also shows that Bolivia, Mexico, and Peru 

have the largest number of medium-size underground 

mines, most of which produce 150,000-300,000 tons per 

year. Mexico and Peru have 5 and 9 operations, respectively, producing 300,000-500,000 tons per year. The 

largest underground mines are in Chile, where 3 mines 

have capacities greater than 3 million tons of ore per year. 

No published statistics are available for the large number 

of small-scale mining operations having capacities of less 

than 60,000 tons per year. Mines of this size are popular 

and widespread in Latin America. They are labor intensive 

operations that promote local economic development by 

furnishing work to local inhabitants. The Small Scale Mining UNITAR Meeting, held in Mexico in November 1978, 

revealed that there are more than 12,000 small mines in the 

world. In Mexico, for example, small mines account for 

more than 20 percent of the total mineral productions of 

the country.

A large part of the large mines of the world were 

discovered by a prospector who started small-scale mining; 

in some cases progressive increases in production led to 

large-scale production, in others, large companies purchased the properties and financed large-scale operations. 

Thus, Latin American countries should foster and 

stimulate small scale mining, with the expectation that 

some small mines will reveal large ore bodies that can be 

exploited on a large scale.

From a financial point of view, small mines require 

small capital, and the cost of labor per capita is much less 

than it is for larger mining operations. Financing is much 

easier to obtain than it is when hundreds of millions of 

dollars are needed to open a large mine. Furthermore, 

because small mines may be spread widely throughout a 

country, some in nearly uninhabited areas, they stimulate 

economic and social development.

Mineral Resources of Latin America 189
Table 5 Mines in Latin America producing more than 150,000 tons of ore per year

TOTAL 150,000 TO

300,000 

TON/YEAR

300,000 TO

500,000 

TON/YEAR

500,000 TO 

1 MILLION 

TON/YEAR

1 MILLION TO 

3 MILLION 

TON/YEAR

GREATER THAN 

3 MILLION 

TON/YEAR

OPEN PIT

Argentina ___________________

'Bolivia ______________________

'Brazil ______________ 35 7 4 3 11 10

Chile________________ 12 1 __ 1 7 3

Colombia____________ 1 _ _ 1

Cuba ______________ 4 2 2

Dominican Republic ______ 3 _ _ _ 2 1

Guatemala ___________ 1 _ _ _ 1

Guyana _____________ 2 ______ 1 1

Haiti_______________ 1 1

Honduras ___________________

Jamaica _____________ 7 2 2 3

'Mexico ______________ 91 1 __ 6 1

Nicaragua ___________________

'Peru _______________ 7 1 1 __ 1 4 

Surinam _____________ 3 _ _ _ 2 1 

Venezuela ____________ 4 _ _ _ 2 2

_______Total ___________89_________10__________8__________8_________35__________28____

___________________________________________________________________________UNDERGROUND______________________________________________

Argentina ____________ 3 1 1 1 __ 

'Bolivia ______________ 16 3 11 1 1 

'Brazil _______________ 4 2 1 1

Chile_______________ 

Colombia____________________

711 — 23

Cuba _______________________

Dominican Republic __________

Guatemala ___________________

Guyana _____________________

Haiti_______________ 1 1

Honduras ____________ 1 _ 1

Jamaica _____________________

'Mexico ______________ 17 6 5 6

Nicaragua ____________ 2 2 

'Peru _______________ 18 4 9 4 1

Surinam _____________________

Venezuela ___________ 

________Total ___________69________20_________29_________12__________5__________3____

*An estimated 16,000 mines in the world produce less than 150,000 tons per year. Countries marked with an asterisk (*) are those where small mines represent an important part of the mining 

industry.

Source: Mining Magazine, January 1978.

THE FUTURE OF THE MINING INDUSTRY IN 

LATIN AMERICA

Based on parameters set forth above and because of 

intensive on-going exploration in many of the countries, 

the future of mining in Latin America looks bright. The 

Mining Magazine (1978, p. 65-68) mentions the planned 

development of 99 major new mines and expansion of 

existing mines in Latin America. Among these are 3 major 

projects in Argentina, 14 in Bolivia, 37 in Brazil, 2 in Colombia, 2 in Costa Rica, 1 in Cuba, 8 in Chile, 1 in the 

Dominican Republic, 1 in Ecuador, 1 in Guatemala, 1 in 

Guyana, 1 in Honduras, 1 in Jamaica, 14 in Mexico, 3 in 

Panama, 1 in Paraguay, 14 in Peru, 1 in Surinam, and 6 in 

Venezuela. Although most of these projects involve capital 

investment of less than 100 million dollars, at least 37 involve investments of 500 million dollars or more. Of the

total new mines, 32 will be open pit and the remainder will 

be underground operations.

The potential for discovery of new mineral deposits in 

Latin America is excellent. For example, only about 5 percent of Mexico has been adequately prospected, and it is 

estimated that 1.5 million km2 requires reconnaissance exploration and that about half this area will be found to 

have a significant mineral potential. Because of tropical 

forest cover and inaccessibility, the mineral potential of a 

large percentage of Central America is unknown. Much of 

Central America has a geological environment similar to 

that of the Sierra Madre Occidental of Mexico, and like the 

Sierra Madre Occidental should have many exploitable 

mineral deposits. The Andes Mountains of South America 

contain many and varied mineral deposits, and represent 

one of the world's richest mineral provinces. The potential 

for discovery of new mineral deposits in the Andes is ex190 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
cellent and it is likely that such new deposits and known 

but as yet undeveloped deposits contain many times the 

quantities of metal and other mineral commodities as do 

developed deposits. The eastern and southeastern part of 

Venezuela, the north and northwestern parts of Brazil, and 

Surinam have enormous potentials for discovery of new 

mineral deposits. However, inaccessibility, jungle cover, 

and deep weathering make exploration of these regions difficult and costly. Paraguay's eastern territory, where coal 

and copper deposits are known, has a good potential for 

mineral discovery. Argentina has undertaken extensive 

mineral exploration programs during the past two decades 

and many new deposits, most notably large porphyry copper deposits, have been found. Continued exploration 

should prove to be fruitful and it is expected that by the 

end of this century Argentina will join the select group of 

major mining countries.

CONCLUSIONS

The future of the mining industry in Latin America is 

bright, and it may be concluded that an increasing percentage of the mineral commodities produced will be utilized by local industry. However, because the potential 

mineral resources of Latin America are so vast, this region 

will continue to furnish a significant part of the world's 

needs for mineral raw materials for many future generations. It may be expected that costs of the mineral raw 

materials will rise and that in the future mineral prices will

more nearly reflect their abundance and long-term 

availability than they do today. Although Latin America 

has a great variety of mineral commodities, those which 

show best potential for long-term production (excluding 

construction materials and industrial minerals that 

primarily will be utilized locally) include the following: 

copper, molybdenum, lead, zinc, tin, tungsten, gold, 

silver, antimony, arsenic, bismuth, nickel, iron ore, 

manganese, rare-earth metals, cadmium, lithium, bauxite, 

boron, asbestos, diamonds, phosphate rock, and sulfur. In 

addition, Mexico, Argentina, and perhaps Peru have huge 

oil and gas potentials that have only recently been 

recognized. Colombia has huge resources of bituminous 

coal.

REFERENCES

Anuario Mineral Brasileiro, 1978, Ministerio das Minas e

Energia: Departamento Nacional da Producao Mineral,

Brasilia, ano VII, p. 1-320. 

Mineral Commodity Profiles, 1978-79: MCP Series prepared by

Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of Interior, Washington,

D.C. 

The Mining Magazine, 1978, Mining Activity in the Western

World: v. 140, no. 1, p. 52, 65-68.

G. P. Salas

Director General

Consejo de Recursos Minerales

Ninos Heroes 130

Mexico 7, D.F.

Mexico

Mineral Resources of Latin America 191
Exploring and Evaluating Seabed Resources: 

The Experience of the Committee for 

Co-ordination of Joint Prospecting for Mineral 

Resources in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP)

A. Johannas

Project Manager/Co-ordinator United Nations Development Program 

Regional Offshore Prospecting in East Asia

INTRODUCTION

This paper deals with exploration and evaluation of 

seabed resources as well as with the unique experience of 

the Committee for Co-ordination of Joint Prospecting for 

Mineral Resources in Asian Offshore Areas (CCOP) in its 

cooperation with both developed and developing countries 

of East Asia and with United Nations bodies and other international scientific and professional organizations in the 

assessment of the offshore minerals of the region. Under 

the aegis of the United Nations Economic Commission for 

Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP, formerly called ECAFE or 

Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East) there 

has been a strong geological and mining program, giving 

impetus to regional cooperation in the field of mineralresource exploration and development. It is within this 

context that a proposal was made in 1964 to establish a coordinating committee for offshore prospecting in East 

Asia, an idea fostered by the realization that although East 

Asia was an important mineral producer on land, its offshore mineral wealth was little known. Offshore exploration for petroleum was meager except for that in wellestablished offshore fields of East Malaysia and Japan 

(table 1). In the meantime, offshore oil had been 

discovered in other parts of the world, pointing up the 

growing potential of offshore oil and gas. It was obvious 

that East Asia, with its vast shelf areas, needed more attention. It also was evident that offshore exploration is an expensive venture, which would be a burden for individual 

countries of East Asia. By pooling resources and cooperating in exploration of offshore areas between two or 

more countries, exploration would be much cheaper and 

more efficient. Starting with four countries, Japan, 

Republic of Korea, Republic of China (Taiwan) and the 

Philippines, CCOP was established in 1966. Since then its 

membership has grown to 12 countries, including the People's Republic of China which joined CCOP in 1979. The 

area of interest now covers all of East Asia and its bordering seas, that is to say the countries of Indonesia, China,

Japan, Kampuchea, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Papua 

New Guinea, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Trust 

Territory of the Pacific Islands, and the Socialist Republic 

of Viet Nam. This region has a unique tectonic setting and 

a high potential for mineral resources discovery and 

development. As a result of the success of the CCOP 

cooperative projects in East Asia a second CCOP cooperation project in the South Pacific was established in 1972. 

Most of the countries in the South Pacific have become 

members of this project.

MODE OF OPERATION OF CCOP

The CCOP sponsors an annual meeting held in a different member country each year. Although each member 

country is represented by one permanent representative on 

the CCOP Committee, attendance at Committee meetings 

includes representatives of all national agencies participating in the CCOP program. These representatives 

usually are chiefly from national geological surveys, 

bureaus of mines, universities, and other geological 

research institutions, and from national oil, tin, and other 

mining enterprises. As a consequence, the participants of 

the meetings represent a cross section of the geological 

community of participating countries.

In its operations, CCOP is assisted by a Technical Advisory Group consisting of experts mostly from developed 

countries but also from the United Nations, and from 

other international scientific and professional organizations. Developed countries supporting the CCOP at the 

present time are Australia, France, Japan, the 

Netherlands, the United Kingdom, U.S.A., Federal 

Republic of Germany, Norway, Switzerland, and USSR. 

These countries are the cooperating countries of CCOP. 

Therefore, these countries and the member countries make 

up a cooperative group of 22 nations. As in the case of the 

member countries, the cooperating countries have multiagency involvement with participation of national 

geological surveys and other geological institutions.

192 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Table 1 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration in East Asia before 1965

I960 1961 1965

Indonesia: 

Drilling operations

Geophysics (km) _

Contract area

Companies

Japan: 

Drilling operations

Companies _

Malaysia-Brunei: 

Drilling operations

Discoveries _

Metres drilled

Companies

The Philippines: 

Drilling operations

Seismic (km)

Magnetic (km)

Gravity (km)

Cambodia

Korea

Viet Nam _

Thailand _

400

31

12 22 222222

1 56834

1 gas

2,133 10,972 14,152 20,073 7,953 9,458

33 33 333334

_ _ 4,264 785 _ 2,871

6,720 _ 23

300

Among the international scientific and professional organizations involved in the programmes of CCOP are: the 

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC), the 

Circum-Pacific Council on Energy and Mineral Resources, 

the East-West Center (Honolulu), the International Union 

of Geological Sciences (IUGS), with its programs and committees such as the International Geological Correlation 

Programme (IGCP), Committee on Storage, Automatic 

Processing, and Retrieval of Geologic Data (COGEODATA), 

Commission of the Geological Map of the World 

(CGMW), Commission for Marine Geology (CMG), 

United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural 

Organization (UNESCO), United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), International Programme of Ocean Drilling (IPOD), International Decade for Ocean Exploration 

(IDOE), Inter-Union Commission on Geodynamics (ICG), 

United Nations Co-operative Coastal Zones Studies, and 

the three other regional bodies of ESCAP concerned with 

mineral resources, CCOP cooperative project in the South 

Pacific (CCOP/SOPAC), Regional Mineral Resources 

Development Centre (RMRDC), and the Southeast Asia Tin 

and Development (SEATRAD) Centre.

From its inception in 1966 until 1972, the ESCAP 

Mineral Resources Section served as secretariat to CCOP 

and organized its meetings. Since 1972, UNDP has supported CCOP through its project of Regional Offshore 

Prospecting in East Asia and now serves as the technical 

bureau that carries out the program of CCOP. The UNDP 

support for the period 1978-1981 is currently equivalent to

US $3,000,000, of which $2,000,000 is from OPEC Special 

Funds. This support enables CCOP to maintain a permanent project office staffed by a Project Manager and professional experts such as a senior marine geologist, a senior 

marine geophysicist, and a petroleum geologist as well as 

support personnel such as an editor and an administrative 

officer who serves CCOP in the execution of its programs. 

Other professional staff members are provided by the 

developed cooperating countries on a non-reimbursable 

basis. At present, these include a principal marine 

geologist from U.S.A., a geophysicist from Japan, a 

specialist on pre-Tertiary geology from France and 

hopefully in 1980, a Quaternary geologist from the 

Netherlands. In the future, we hope that specialists from 

the member countries of CCOP will serve at the Project 

Office within the framework of Technical Cooperation 

Among Developing Countries-United Nations (TCDC).

In short, it can be said that within CCOP there is interaction between professionals in government, university, 

and industry in the member countries with professionals in 

the scientific community of the developed countries and international organizations resulting in formulating of practical programmes within the framework of CCOP.

CCOP's SURVEYS 1966-1972

The period of 1966-1972 can be considered as the 

pioneering period of CCOP. Prior to 1966 CCOP was little 

concerned with offshore exploration except for isolated

Seabed Resources 193
projects such as one in Japan (magnetitic sand, coal, and 

petroleum and natural gas), small areas of east-central 

Sumatra (petroleum and natural gas), and tin mining in Indonesia and southern Thailand. The most important 

CCOP programs during this period were several successive 

geological and geophysical surveys. CCOP's first undertaking in 1966 was a continuous marine seismic profiling 

survey with magnetic recording along the southeastern 

coast of the Republic of Korea. While the results of that 

survey were not encouraging, the interest of the Government of Korea was stimulated to search for hydrocarbons 

in offshore areas (table 2). A subsequent geological survey 

in the East China Sea and the Yellow Sea by the RV F. V. 

Hunt was carried out by the U.S. Naval Oceanographic 

Office and Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with 

support from the Japan Petroleum Development Corporation and the Geological Survey of Korea. This was followed by over 40,000 line-km aeromagnetic surveys of an 

area of over 200,000 square km in the Yellow Sea, East 

China Sea, and the Korea Strait by the U.S. Oceanographic Office, Bundensanstalt fur Bodenforschung 

(FRG), and the Geological Survey of Korea. These surveys 

enhanced our knowledge of these marine areas, and subsequently private industry has undertaken exploration programs in these areas. In 1969, another survey was carried 

out by the U.S. Oceanographic Office and Woods Hole

Oceanographic Institution in the South China Sea and the 

Gulf of Thailand. In 1971, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, with the participation of the U.K. Institute of Geological Sciences, carried out about 7,400 linekm of geophysical traverses, including 6,000 line-km of 

seismic profiles and magnetic and gravity surveys in the 

Japan Sea and the adjacent continental shelf. In the Philippines, the oil industry was active until the early 1960's 

when major foreign companies closed their operations and 

local companies exhausted their working capital. Interest 

in oil exploration was renewed after an aeromagnetic 

survey, consisting of 25,000 line-km of aeromagnetic 

traverse over a 136,000-square-km offshore area in the 

Palawan-Sulu Sea Region, was carried out by the U.S. 

Naval Oceanographic Office, the Bundesanstalt fur 

Bodenforschung, and the Philippines Bureau of Mines. 

Renewed exploration by the oil companies led to the 

discovery of the Nido offshore field of Palawan and subsequently to the first oil production in the Philippines. Other 

surveys included: (1) shipborne magnetometer and sonic 

profiling for heavy detrital minerals off the west coast of 

Korea by the Federal Republic of Germany and the Geological Survey of Korea; (2) 1,600 line-km of magnetic profiling and collection of 18 bottom samples over the Sunda 

Shelf between Kalimantan and peninsular Malaysia by the 

Tokyo University of Fisheries and UNESCO; (3) a geologic,

Table 2 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Republic of Korea

Drilling: 

Exploration total

Discoveries

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km)

Magnetic (km)

Gravity (km)

Concessions: 

Area, sq. km x 1,000

Number

Operators _

1966 1967 1968 1969

6,000

6,000 40,000

81.7

2

1

1970

1,300

1,300

341.6

7

4

1971 1972

0

0

5,290

341.6 341.6

7 7

4 4

1973

4

0

5,650

5,299

4,574

341.6

7

4

1974

0

0

588

299.7

7

4

1975

1

1

0

0

0

229.7

7

4

Table 3 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Indonesia

1966

Drilling: 

Exploration wells

Declared discovery

Metres drilled

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km)

Magnetic (km) 96,643

Gravity (km)

Sharing Contracts

Area, sq. km x 10* ___ _____ 

Total operators

1967 1968

8

15,209

51,799

2,500

7 18

.39 1.68 

5

1969

24

3

33,556

97,237

150

25

2.04 

13

1970

58

5

11,520

62,492

10,131

10,169

32

2.08 

18

1971

85

5

157,025

63,592

27,050

20,200

35

2.86 

20

1972

67

8

131,575

35,687

1,170

36

2.23 

20

1973

82

11

163,547

45,213

10,611

1,791

34

1.74 

20

1974

102

15

207,314

38,999

2,536

715

31

1.23 

21

1975

27

0

44,193

12,242*

35

1.22

22

: To May 1975.

194 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
sparker and seismic refraction survey in the area east of 

peninsular Malaysia and near Natuna Island by the Imperial College of London, the Indonesia Hydrographic Office, the University of Malaya, and UNESCO.

Although the amount of work during this period was 

not as much as that after 1972 within the IDOE/SEATAR 

(International Decade of Ocean Exploration/Studies of 

East Asia Tectonics and Resources) program, these surveys 

were important because of their pioneering nature and the 

impetus that they gave to offshore exploration, as shown

by tables 2 through 9. Increased knowledge of these marine 

areas attracted industry's interest, and increased activities 

led to discoveries of new oil fields. Offshore oil is important throughout Malaysia, but Indonesia has emerged as a 

major offshore producer.

Recently discovered oil and gas are being developed in 

Thailand and the Philippines. A gas field in the Gulf of 

Thailand is now under development; gas from that field 

may become available in 1981. Production of oil from the 

field near Palawan Island, the Philippines began in 1979.

Table 4 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Japan

1966 1967 1968

Drilling: 

Exploration wells 4 5 3

Discoveries 2 gas

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km) _ 6.2* 1.7*

Magnetic (km) _ 1.7*

Gravity (km) _ 1.8*

Permits: 

Area, sq. km x 1,000 _ na 61 73 

Companies 2 3 4

* Field party months.

Table 5 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975,

1966 1967 1968

Drilling: 

Wildcats

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km) _

CCOP combine (km) _ __ __ ____

Concessions: 

Area, sq. km x 1,000 _ __ __ ____ 

Total leases _

Operators

Table 6 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975,

1966 1967 1968

Drilling: 

Exploration totals 9 12 17

Discoveries 3 oil 1 oil na

Metres drilled 27,566 31,308 na

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km) 644 1,600

6* 11.9* 5*

Magnetic (km) _ 1,300

Gravity (km) _ _

Concessions: 

Area, sq. km x 1,000 _ 190.1 197.9 347.2 

Operators 5 5 7

1969 1970

na

9,879 6,554

19,738

7,760

213 261 

6 8

Kampuchea

1969 1970

2,880

2,000 __

40 40 

1 1

1 1

, Malaysia

1969 1970

24 47

na

+ Shell 

76,513 24,433

4,680 4,996

39*

4,500

1*

347.2 340.0 

7 7

1971

7

1 oil

6,140

400

3,070

309 

10

1971

40 

1

1

1971

23

3 oil

1 gas 

+ Shell 

29,390

9,975

3,300

0

258.0 

8

1972

10

1 oil

1 gas 

10,247

550

550

600 

9

1972

1

20 

1

1

1972

+ Shell 

20

3

+ Shell 

40,403

12,798

0

0

258.0 

8

1973

8

1 oil

8,282

11,585

5,856

943 

12

1973

2,159

37 

2

2

1973

+ Shell

25

3 oil

+ Shell 

28,249

9,968

+ Shell

12,872

0

204.7 

8

1974

5

1 gas

35.5* 6.6*

7*

943 

14

1974

2

1,794

37 

2

2

1974

32

2

+ Brunei

78,777

14,685

0

0

202.8 

8

1975

3

6 + *

943 

14

1975

0

0

0

37 

2

2

1975

7*

202.8 

8

Field party months.

Seabed Resources 195
Table 7 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Thailand

1966

Drilling: 

Exploration total

Discoveries

Metres drilled

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km)

Magnetic (km)

Gravity (km)

Concessions: 

Area, sq. km x 1,000

Number

Operators

1967 1968 1969

11,686 11,552

2,413

( Awaiting

1970 1971

1

0

5,392

6,310 1,670

59,533

265.3

12

9

1972

3

1

5,355

11,473

4,124

4,124

218.2

11

9

1973

5

15,688

12,615

1,228

1,228

218.2

11

9

1974

12

4

35,596

25,472

308.2

14

11

1975

4

1

308.2

14

11

Table 8 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, The Philippines

Drilling: 

Exploration

Metres drilled

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km)

Magnetic (km)

Gravity (km)

1966 1967 1968 1969

960 _ 1,500

22,500

1970

786

4,200

1971

2

4,395

11,803

10,000

1972 1973

3

7,129

5,000 6*

1974

3

9,992

2,100 +

1975

4 +

Concessions: 

Area, sq km x 1,000 . Number _______. 

Operators _____.

12,962 49,403 62,598 63,788

1799

1 7 10 11

Field party months.

Table 9 Offshore hydrocarbon exploration 1966 to 1975, Viet-Nam

1966

Drilling: 

Exploration total

Discoveries

Metres drilled _

Geophysics: 

Seismic (km) _

Gravity (km) _

Concessions: 

Area, sq. km x 1,000

Number

Operators

1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973

657 4,000 8,406 _ 4,800

140 4,000

58.3

8

4

1974

2

1

5,689

22,032

84.2

13

8

1975

4

1

4,000

na

84.2

13

8

THE JOINT CCOP-IOC PROGRAM FOR STUDIES OF 

EAST ASIA TECTONICS AND RESOURCES

As previously mentioned, the period prior to 1972 was 

the pioneering period of CCOP and when oil exploration 

by industry began to grow, CCOP's pioneering role 

diminished, and it became necessary to search for other 

viable activities. One proposal was for CCOP to become 

involved in studies related to the program of the International Decade of Ocean Exploration (IDOE). This project 

was originally proposed by President Lyndon Johnson of 

the U.S.A. in 1968 and later endorsed by various entities in 

the United Nations. Its basic objective was to encourage

international cooperation in research, of mutual benefit to 

all countries, into resources in and under the sea. As a consequence, during the 1972 session of CCOP, held in 

Bandung, Indonesia, a group of scientists formulated the 

research proposal entitled "Tectonic Development of East 

and South East Asia and its relation to Metalliferous Ore 

and Hydrocarbon Genesis." This project paper was submitted to the IDOE office and copies were sent to the International Oceanographic Commission (IOC) and the 

Scientific Committee on Ocean Research (SCOR), where it 

received an enthusiastic response. A workshop on 

"Metallogenesis and Tectonic Patterns in East and South 

East Asia" was held in Bangkok in September 1973 to

196 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
discuss research proposals. Some ninety scientists attended, 50 percent of whom were from government 

organizations, equally divided between developed and 

developing countries, 30 percent from universities and 

research institutes, and 20 percent from industry. Twelve 

countries and 3 U.N. organizations participated. A major 

feature of the workshop was the international character 

and diversity of project proposals and of the discussions. 

The workshop dealt with five major topics: tectonics, 

geophysics, sedimentary processes, metallogenesis, and 

petrogenesis. In addition, heat flow and maturation of 

hydrocarbons were discussed from the viewpoint of current knowledge and investigations. Project proposals in 

these fields were discussed in this context.

It was agreed that investigations in metallogenesis and 

tectonics should be carried out along specific transects, as 

follows:

1. Burma-northern Thailand transect.

2. Andaman Sea-southern Thailand transect.

3. Sumatra-Malay Peninsula-Sunda Shelf 

transect.

4. Timor-Banda Sea transect.

5. Northern Philippines transect.

6. Southwest Japan-Korean Peninsula transect. 

These transects are in areas of major plate interaction and 

each cuts across an arc-trench system and adjacent basins 

and continental areas. The results from study of individual 

transects could be coordinated to give a comprehensive 

multidisciplinary picture of this fascinating portion of the 

Earth's crust.

The IDOE/SEATAR program is one of the most successful programs in which CCOP has been involved. The 

results of the workshop, which were published in a book 

entitled "Metallogenesis, Hydrocarbons and Tectonic Patterns in Eastern Asia," have become the basis for the planning of scientific programs aimed at solving specific problems. Member countries are carrying out geological and 

geophysical studies on land, using their own funds and 

facilities, and they are cooperating with developed countries in the offshore investigations. Geoscientists from the 

member countries of CCOP have had the opportunity to 

join cruises of research ships owned and operated by institutions of the developed countries. Some of these 

surveys involved 2 or 3 ships as was the case with that in 

the Banda Sea, which was made by the MV Thomas 

Washington, the MV Atlantis II of the U.S.A., and the Indonesian ship MV Kelapa.

The U.S.A. has been the principal contributor to the 

program through the IDOE Program of the National 

Science Foundation, carried out by the Scripps Institute of 

Oceanography (SIO), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and the Lamont-Doherty Geological 

Observatory (LOGO). In addition to the U.S.A., the

Federal Republic of Germany (Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe), Japan, the United 

Kingdom, and Australia have participated in the program.

OFFSHORE EXPLORATION FOR TIN AND OTHER 

DETRITAL MINERALS, AND STUDIES OF 

QUATERNARY GEOLOGY

CCOP's interests in mineral exploration have not been 

confined to petroleum and natural gas, although the work 

in these fields has attracted the greatest public attention. 

Exploration for offshore detrital minerals also has been an 

important phase of CCOP work. Three of the CCOP 

member countries are among the largest tin producers of 

the world. Their combined production is more than 60 percent of total world production. Offshore tin mining was 

important in Thailand and Indonesia before 1966, and the 

tin potential of the offshore areas of Thailand, Malaysia 

and Indonesia is known to be great. Cooperation among 

the countries in the assessment of the tin resources is essential. During annual sessions of CCOP, progress in exploration and application of new techniques used in exploration 

of offshore tin have been discussed. Two surveys were 

notable: A survey of tin along the west and east coasts of 

peninsular Malaysia in 1974, carried out under the Dutch 

assistance program, and a survey of tin in the offshore 

areas between Malaysia and Indonesia in 1976, carried out 

with the assistance of the Federal Republic of Germany. In 

1979, a follow-up survey of the 1976 survey of an area west 

of Port Dickson, west of peninsular Malaysia was begun. 

This survey involves detailed geophysical studies followed 

by drilling. Since 1978, the Project Office of CCOP has acquired shallow marine geophysical equipment consisting of 

a seismic reflection profiling system, a side-scan sonar 

system, a marine magnetometer, a recording base-station 

magnetometer-gradiometer, a dual frequency pinger 

system, a marine geophysical refraction system, and a 

navigation system. This equipment can be used in the exploration for offshore tin and other detrital heavy 

minerals, for building materials, and for studies of Quaternary geology and engineering geology. It can be used in national surveys where a given country provides a ship and its 

crew and most of the professional and technical staff, 

while CCOP provides the equipment and services of one or 

two professional geophysicists.

The first survey in this program was carried out by the 

Thai Department of Mineral Resources in April 1979. A 

preliminary interpretation of the results indicated the existence of at least one potentially commercial tin bearing 

area, and other areas that warrant drilling. It was recommended that 129 holes be drilled in the area covered by the 

survey. This drilling will be carried out by Thailand with 

the support of UNDP funds for Thailand making it an example of linkage of a UNDP regional project with a 

UNDP country project.

Seabed Resources 197
In addition to tin, other detrital heavy minerals, such 

as ilmenite, monazite, zircon, rutile, and tantalitecolumbite are known to occur in East and Southeast Asia, 

and have been recovered in Malaysia and Thailand as a 

byproduct of tin mining. Beach deposits of titaniferous 

magnetite have been exploited in Japan and the Philippines. Alluvial gold has long been produced in the 

Republic of Korea, where also exploration for and 

recovery of small amounts of ilmenite, zircon, and 

monazite have been made. CCOP's program for exploration of offshore detrital heavy minerals has been undertaken with the assistance of experts provided by Australia.

It is generally recognized that knowledge of Quaternary geology is important to the understanding of the 

distribution of detrital tin and other heavy detrital 

minerals, to determination of ground-water supplies, to 

evaluation of construction materials, and to problems in 

engineering geology. CCOP studies in Quaternary 

geology, planned to start in 1980, will be carried out with 

the assistances of a geologist provided by the Government 

of the Netherlands.

TRAINING IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

The rapid expansion of national programs for exploration and development of offshore resources by CCOP 

member countries has required training of many new scientists and engineers in these countries. Whereas basic 

geologic training is generally available throughout the 

region, facilities for specialized training in such fields as 

geophysics, mathematical geology, geochemistry, and data 

manipulation were found to be inadequate. CCOP has 

sought to provide training by organization of special 

seminars and workshops, which resulted from recommendations at the annual meetings. For example, a seminar on 

petroleum data collection, storage, and retrieval was held 

at Bandung, Indonesia in April 1976. This seminar was intended to be a preparatory phase in the establishment of 

national petroleum data storage/retrieval centers and sample repositories. Another seminar/workshop on interpretation of satellite imagery for the East-Asia IDOE transect 

was held in Bangkok in 1976. The meeting was organized 

by the CCOP project office and conducted by an expert 

from the U.S. Geological Survey with the assistance of the 

Thai Department of Mineral Resources. Geochemical 

processes are important to the understanding of hydrocarbon genesis, particularly the variable complex geochemical 

processes that characterize distinct marine and nonmarine 

basins. To gain an understanding of these processes, a 

seminar sponsored by CCOP and the ASEAN (Association 

of South East Nations) Council on Petroleum (ASCOPE) on 

the generation and maturation of hydrocarbons in 

sedimentary basins was held in Manila in 1977. The 

Federal Republic of Germany, France, and the United 

Kingdom provided experts to participate in this seminar.

The member governments of CCOP have long recognized 

that reliable assessment of their undiscovered national 

petroleum resources, as well as production capacities and 

life spans of the proven reserves, were critical factors in 

determining long-term national economic and development plans and setting yearly budgetary allocations and 

development targets. Based on this, a workshop on the 

methodology for assessment of undiscovered hydrocarbon 

resources was held at Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, in March 

1980.

The workshops sponsored by CCOP have shown that 

the success of a seminar or workshop depends upon factors 

such as interdisciplinary mixes, types of institutions and 

countries participating, relevancy to economic development of the region, and nature of the technical and scientific topics. A major objective has been the organization of 

workshops sufficiently advanced to attract participation of 

experts from the developed countries.

In the field of training, the Japanese Government has 

contributed by providing an annual course in offshore prospecting during 12 consecutive years. A field training 

course in methods and techniques for drilling of nearshore 

unconsolidated formations and placer deposits was given 

by the Netherlands. Participants from Indonesia, 

Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand attended this 

course. On-board training has also been given to participants of CCOP member countries on offshore survey 

cruises.

Within the CCOP programs, substantial amounts of 

new geological data on continental shelves of East Asia 

have been obtained and the results published by the 

technical documentation program. Four types of publications are issued: CCOP Technical Bulletins (vol. 1-12), 

Reports of CCOP sessions (once a year), CCOP Newsletters, and CCOP Special Publications.

PRESENT AND FUTURE PROGRAMS OF CCOP

Based on the recommendation of the second CCOP-IOC 

(Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission) 

workshop on IDOE/SEATAR, this program will continue 

into the 1980's. It will also become part of the regional program of IOC in the Western Pacific (WESTPAC) which in 

addition to geologic and geophysical studies also carries 

out studies in physical oceanography and marine biology.

Future hydrocarbon resource programs of CCOP will 

include the following: (1) acquisition, storage, and 

retrieval of petroleum data; (2) stratigraphic correlation 

and regional basin studies; (3) heat-flow measurements 

and geothermal gradient studies as related to generation 

and maturation of hydrocarbons; and (4) study of preTertiary petroleum potentials in East Asia. During its annual sessions since 1973, CCOP has repeatedly stressed the 

importance of establishing national centers for acquisition 

and interpretation of proprietary petroleum data and of

198 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
well cuttings and cores. It was recognized that enormous 

amounts of valuable data about exploration and development had been collected by the petroleum industry in the 

CCOP member countries during the past decade. The total 

cost for petroleum exploration and development in the 

CCOP region has been more than US $1,000 million, and 

additional data is being collected at an accelerated rate as 

the pace of petroleum exploration has accelerated in 

response to discoveries during the past decade. The Committee on Storage and Automatic Processing of Geologic 

Data (COGEODATA) of the International Union of 

Geological Sciences (IUGS) assisted CCOP in assessing the 

needs of the member countries in the field of petroleumdata acquisition, storage, and retrieval, and recommendations were made for establishing systems similar to those 

now in use in North America and Europe. In the future 

CCOP will endeavor to strengthen national petroleumdata facilities and to establish regional data-acquisition 

programs.

Based on available information about occurrences of 

hydrocarbons in East Asia, it is felt that there is a need to 

assemble, evaluate, and publish about the character and 

distribution of oil and gas fields in that area. It has been 

decided that information about oil and gas in the CCOP 

area will be assembled in a series of basin study reports, 

which will include stratigraphic correlation charts and 

cross sections. These reports will emphasize the occurrence 

and distribution of oil and gas, as well as the geometry, 

structure, and stratigraphy of the basins. Eventually, the 

regional information will be published in an atlas of 

geology and hydrocarbon resources of the CCOP region.

With the assistance of the United States and Japan, a 

continuing program of heat-flow measurements and 

studies of thermal conductivity has been carried out in 

several member countries of CCOP. A seminar on 

hydrocarbon generation and maturation was held in 

September 1977. A follow-up seminar on heat-flow and 

geothermal gradient studies as related to generation and 

maturation of hydrocarbons has been proposed. The 

presence of hydrocarbons in pre-Tertiary sedimentary sequences in the CCOP member countries now appears 

unlikely, but there is a need to make additional studies of 

these older rocks before they can be eliminated as potential 

reservoirs of oil and gas. It was therefore decided to continue and intensify the CCOP program for study of preTertiary sequences, probably with the assistance of an expert provided by the Government of France.

Future investigations of offshore tin and other detrital 

heavy minerals and construction materials, as well as 

studies related to coastal engineering and Quaternary 

geology, should include the following: (1) exploration for 

offshore deposits of tin and other detrital heavy minerals; 

(2) the search for offshore construction materials; (3) nearshore and offshore engineering and route surveys; and (4) 

regional geological studies of unconsolidated Quaternary

sediments in relation to the above investigations and to investigations of ground-water supplies. As previously noted 

these studies will utilize CCOP's recently acquired 

geophysical equipment. The investigations will consist of 

successive surveys in individual member countries. In addition, a fact-finding mission will be organized to plan a 

regional Quaternary geology center to be attached to an existing organization in one of the CCOP member countries.

Other investigations and research relevant to CCOP 

activities will include participation in Project Magnet, the 

use of specific techniques such as remote sensing, 

radiometric dating, and others.

Preparation of geologic maps of the sea-floor and continental margin of Eastern Asia will become a new program of CCOP. At the request of the Commission of the 

Geological Map of the World (CGMW), CCOP has agreed 

to be responsible for the compilation of these maps at the 

scale of 1 to 5 million. Work will be conducted in cooperation with, complementary to, and as an extension of 

several related studies: International Decade of Ocean Exploration (IDOE), study of Quaternary geology of broad 

shelf areas and the Circum-Pacific Map Project. In the 

field of marine environment, a project will be initiated in 

cooperation with United Nations Environment Program 

(UNEP).

Consulting services, training of technical personnel, 

publication of a Technical Bulletin, Proceedings of Annual 

Sessions, and a Newsletter will continue as part of the 

CCOP effort. An East Asian offshore training center is 

planned. It will have the following main objectives: (1) 

training of drillers in techniques of operation of offshore 

drilling rigs, (2) training of deep-sea divers, (3) upgrading 

of personnel through specialized courses on drilling and 

production, and (4) training of local instructors.

ASSESSMENT OF CCOP ACHIEVEMENTS

CCOP is one of the most successful regional programs 

of the Economic Commission for Asia and the Pacific 

(ESCAP) and the United Nations Development Program.

Success of CCOP programs may be attributed to the 

following:

1. Offshore investigations are more susceptible to 

regional or international cooperation than are onshore country-by-country investigations.

2. Offshore investigations are expensive and require 

sophisticated equipment. By sharing resources as 

under CCOP programs, the member countries acquire data at a fraction of the cost for a singlecountry program.

3. Although limited in area, which is an advantage in 

management, the region is one of great geological 

interest, and has potentially large offshore 

hydrocarbon and detrital mineral resources.

Seabed Resources 199
4. Projects have been planned to yield information tention and contribution to the program. I am hopeful that

that will be of direct aid in exploration and CCOP will continue to be a success, and to make contribudevelopment of mineral resources. dons to international understanding for the benefit of all

5. The involvement of competent and dedicated per- mankind, 

sonnel from member and cooperating countries of

CCOP, from the United Nations and other inter- A T ,

,..,,. , „ . . . A. Jonannas national scientific and professional organizations. project Manager/Co-ordinator

In conclusion I would like to say that the establish- UNDP Regional Offshore Prospecting in East Asia

ment of manageable practical programs geared to na- c/0 ESCAP

tional, regional, and international needs has awakened the Sala Santitham

interest of many people and has attracted international at- Bangkok 2, Thailand

200 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Discussion

R. N. Richmond

Director of Mineral Development, Fiji

The main theme for this centennial celebration is a 

thought provoking symposium entitled "Resources for the 

21st Century." In my short discussion I hope to tie the 

papers we have heard about present-day problems with the 

resources for the future.

First of all, an underlying theme of many of the papers 

is the interdependence of all countries on resources which 

exist in other countries. We have also heard that much of 

the mineral resources in developed countries have already 

been found, mined, and exhausted, and that a significant 

amount of resources could exist in developing countries 

where exploration has been lagging behind because of lack 

of expertise and capital.

The paper by G. P. Salas is a call for systematic 

geologic mapping in all countries and the need for mineral 

exploration in order to improve the balance of payments 

situation and employment opportunities in each country. 

A useful call is for promotion of small scale mining as a 

stepping stone to the establishment of much larger mines 

which can be so common in the area. It is important to 

note that if private enterprise will not come in to explore, 

developing countries can now apply for the United Nations 

revolving fund or World Bank funds to carry out their own 

exploration programs, and to pay for infrastructure costs 

if necessary. Such funding is becoming more easily 

available and may soon herald a new era of more direct 

state participation in mineral exploration efforts. It is also 

interesting to note that vast areas of South America are 

grossly unexplored, and the South American metallogenic 

maps show that the area has great potential for the 

development of many more metallic and nonmetallic 

mines, whicli could result in South America becoming an 

important industrial giant.

The paper by Dr. Johannas shows us an excellent example of a successful international cooperative program 

over a wide area of land and sea and involving many countries. One of the strengths of this program is that it emphasizes interdependence and similarity in geology to improve the exploration potential of the whole region. The 

program pools together the resources, expertise and 

facilities in the region so that exploration can be efficiently 

carried out on a regional basis without duplicating expensive facilities and equipment. This is the type of successful 

model which is worth emulating if our various developing 

regional groups hope to find and develop their resources 

quickly.

As Dr. Johannas has already pointed out, the developing island states of the South Pacific have now also formed 

their own offshore prospecting body called Committee for

Co-ordination of Joint Prospecting in South Pacific Offshore Areas, with CCOP/SOPAC as its acronym. 

CCOP/SOPAC is also looking for resources for the present as 

well as the future—with the emphasis on petroleum potential, detrital minerals such as tin, and construction 

materials.

To those of you who raise your eyebrows at the mention of petroleum possibilities in the South Pacific it may 

be interesting to learn that CCOP/SOPAC has just concluded 

a very successful symposium entitled "Petroleum Potential 

in Island Arcs, Small Ocean Basins, Submerged Margins, 

and Related Areas." One of the lessons that came out of 

this symposium is that explorationists need to look at the 

basic requirements of source rocks, heat, and maturation, 

reservoir rocks such as reefs, migration, and traps in light 

of plate tectonics concepts —and they may be surprised to 

learn that many areas they had previously written off as 

non-prospective may actually have enormous potential for 

petroleum.

Much of the emphasis of the CCOP/SOPAC programs is 

on deep sea resources such as manganese nodules and 

phosphorites. And the discussions in this symposium make 

it increasingly obvious that during the 21st Century it will 

become necessary to exploit the mineral resources of the 

sea bed.

We have heard repeatedly during the symposium that 

resources are finite, and also in discussion that the major 

consumption of resources is in the developed countries. 

One has to wonder how much of the resources are being 

consumed today for essentials of life rather than in simply 

indulging in excessive luxuries of life. Is mankind really 

capable of making sensible decisions on rational use of 

natural resources to maximize their utility for public 

benefit —an example here could be the preferential use of 

petroleum for petrochemicals rather than motor fuel, and 

power supply.

The experience of the U.S. Geological Survey in its 

first 100 years and the tools it has perfected such as interpretation of ERTS imagery augurs well for the future. We 

hope that rational decisions by mankind on the use of 

resources during this century will not leave too many problems for Mother Earth when it comes of age in the 21st 

Century.

R. N. Richmond 

Director of Mineral Development 

Mineral Resources Division 

Private Mail Bag, G.P.O. 

Suva, Fiji

Discussion 201
Discussion

E. Davin

National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.

The Committee for Co-ordination of Joint Prospecting for Mineral Resources in Asian Offshore Areas 

(CCOP), despite its title of coordinating committee, is not 

a clearinghouse or place to exchange information. It is an 

operational organization that defines its own problems, 

seeks solutions, and turns to the more developed countries 

for advice and assistance when necessary. Scientists from 

the CCOP member countries meet on an annual basis with 

their counterparts from the advisor countries to devise 

plans for uncovering and exploiting the resource potential 

of offshore areas in East Asia.

This spirit of cooperation served as a basis for a largescale, coordinated research project —Studies in East Asia 

Tectonics and Resources (SEATAR). East Asia, from Japan 

to Korea, south and west through the Banda Arc, the Indonesian Archipelago and Andaman Sea to the Bengal 

Fan, has long served geologists as a testing ground for 

theories of island arc evolution and mountain building 

processes. The area has not been investigated, however, 

since the development of plate tectonics theory and with 

modern geophysical/geochemical research tools.

A full understanding of the processes along active converging margins, a subject of primary interest to academic 

scientists, plus the need for countries in East Asia to fully 

develop their resource potentials, were both answered by 

this coordinated program of research. The association of 

mineral deposits and hydrocarbon accumulations with the

plate margins was quickly recognized when the plate tectonics theory first emerged. Efforts to understand the processes, however, have proved elusive. SEATAR is a major 

effort to come to grips with this problem. Approximately 

sixteen scientists from seven United States academic institutions did extensive field work, both offshore and onshore from 1975-1980. Final field work will be completed 

in 1981. The results will be evaluated in a series of 

workshops during 1981-82. Publication of interim results 

by SEATAR principal investigators has already been 

substantial. The exact nature of the plate tectonic processes that are responsible for mineral deposits and 

hydrocarbon accumulation must still be demonstrated. In 

another project along the East Pacific Rise at 21° N., 

however, a dramatic breakthrough was achieved in 1978. 

Here, scientists in manned deep-diving submersibles 

observed massive sulfides forming along the flanks of an 

active spreading center. These sulfides, rich in copper, 

nickel, and even silver are believed to be the first step in the 

formation of this major ore forming deposit.

E. Davin

Program Manager 

National Science Foundation 

1800 G Street, NW 

Room 606 

Washington, D.C. 20550

202 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
World Nonfuel Mineral Supply: The Outlook as 

We Approach the Twenty-first Century

John D. Morgan, Jr.

Chief Staff Officer, Bureau of Mines, Washington, D.C.

Agriculture and mineral production are the basic 

sources of new wealth. They are interdependent in that 

each helps the other to grow and similar in that adequate 

supplies of water are essential to both. Thoughtful people 

have always speculated about future adequacy of food and 

water supplies and often have taken prudent steps to improve them. Millennia ago, Joseph interpreted the 

Pharaoh's dream as foretelling that seven years of famine 

would follow seven years of great plenty. Forewarned, 

Egypt promptly implemented a grain stockpiling program.

People have also long been conscious of the important 

role of mineral materials. After initially using naturally 

shaped stones, man later perfected the art of pounding and 

flaking them for improved performance in various uses. 

Sunbaked clay products were followed by those baked in 

fire. Lime from limestone, plaster from gypsum, mortar 

from both, and natural mineral colors were all used in construction long ago. Asphalt was used as a cementing and 

water-proofing material.

Trading of minerals has been important from the 

earliest times. Salt and amber followed definite trade 

routes. The tin of Cornwall in England was important to 

the Phoenician bronze-makers of the eastern Mediterranean. Ancient Chinese bronzes display sophisticated 

alloying and casting techniques. Zambesi gold led the early 

Egyptians to circumnavigate the African continent, and 

Aztec and Inca gold and silver funded the Spanish empire. 

World production and use of materials have increased 

sharply in recent decades, as illustrated for four major 

commodities in figure 1. Except for a few large-bulk, lowvalue minerals such as sand and gravel, most minerals are 

now produced not just to meet local or even national uses, 

but also to participate as appropriate in international 

trade. Only a few cents per pound can move mineral commodities physically in the major markets of the world, 

while ownership can often be changed by mail, telephone, 

or telex for even less. Currently about two-fifths of the 

world's iron ore, bauxite, alumina, and copper and about 

one-fifth of the world's steel and aluminum move in world 

trade. Table 1 shows how these materials move from area 

to area at various stages from mine to user. Many other 

mineral materials from diverse geographic sources are used 

in more or less direct proportion to these major mineral 

materials; for example, the ferroalloys used in steel, including manganese, chromium, nickel, molybdenum,

Table 1 World production of iron, steel, aluminum, and copper 

in 1978

[Quantities are given in millions of metric tons; those marked 

by an asterisk (*) are estimates.]

IRON AND STEEL

United States _ 

Canada

Latin America _ 

Western Europe 

USSR

Other Comecon 

China, People's 

Republic of _ 

Japan

Other Asia

Australia, 

New Zealand _ 

Africa

Total

ALUMINUM 

CONTENT

United States _ 

Canada _______ 

Latin America _ 

Western Europe 

USSR

Other Comecon 

China, People's 

Republic of _ 

Japan

Other Asia

Australia, 

New Zealand _ 

Africa _________

Total

COPPER 

CONTENT

United States _ 

Canada

Latin America _ 

Western Europe 

USSR _______ 

Other Comecon 

China, People's 

Republic of _ 

Japan

Other Asia

Australia, 

New Zealand, 

Papua New 

Guinea

Africa

Total

PRODUCTION 

OF IRON 

IN ORES

51

27

75 

34 

142

4 

32

30

56 

33

484

PRODUCTION 

IN BAUXITE 

(ESTIMATE)

0.4 

0 

4.9 

1.1

.8

1.3

.3 

0

.7

4.9 

3.1

17.5

MINE 

PRODUCTION

1.4 

.6

1.5 

.2 

.8 

.5

.1 

.1

.4

.4

1.4

7.4

CONSUMPTION 

OF 

SCRAP

75* 

8

10 

70 

60

32

8 

39

7

3

4

316

PRODUCTION 

IN ALUMINA 

(ESTIMATE)

3.2

.6

2.1 

2.1 

1.4

1.0

.3 

.9

.3

3.5 

.3

15.7

SMELTER 

PRODUCTION

1.3

.5

1.3 

.6

.8 

.5

.1 

.9

.1

.2

1.3

7.6

PRODUCTION 

RAW 

STEEL

124 

15

24 

160 

151

64

31* 

102

24

8 

9

712

PRODUCTION 

OF PRIMARY 

METAL

4.4

1.0

.4 

3.4 

1.7

.6

.3 

1.1

.5

.4 

.3

14.1

REFINERY 

PRODUCTION

1.9 

.5

1.0

1.3 

1.2 

.6

.2 

1.0

.1

.2

.9

8.9

ESTIMATED 

CONSUMPTION 

OF RAW STEEL 

EQUIVALENT

149 

13

30

139 

149

65

37 

66

40

6

13

707

CONSUMPTION 

OF PRIMARY 

METAL 

(ESTIMATE)

4.9

.4

.6 

3.6 

1.6

.7

.3 

1.6

.6

.2 

.1

14.6

CONSUMPTION

2.2

.3

.4 

2.6 

1.2

.7

.2 

1.2

.2

.1

.1

9.2

World Nonfuel Mineral Supply 203
WORLD STEEL PRODUCTION

EST '7% OF WORLD

WORLD CEMENT PRODUCTION

O

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 '7

j~ -i)' „ OF WORLD

1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 '78

WORLD REFINED COPPER PRODUCTION

EST 20% OF WORLD

1975 1978

50 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1978

WORLD PRIMARY ALUMINUM METAL PRODUCTION

EST. 31 % OF WORLD

Figure 1 World production figures for 4 major commodities, 1950 to 1978. 

204 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
tungsten, and vanadium. Table 2 provides additional 

details of world consumption and production for twelve 

major mineral materials.

Table 2 Twelve major nonfuel minerals

NET IMPORT RELIANCE, AS PERCENTAGE OF CONSUMPTION IN 1977

Asbestos

Bauxite

Chromium _____ 

Cobalt

Copper

Iron ore

Lead

Manganese ____ 

Nickel

Phosphate

Silver

Zinc

U.S.A.

85

91

91

97

13

48

13

98 

70

0

36

57

EEC

90

97

100 

100

100

82

76

100 

100

99

93

91

JAPAN

98

100

98 

100

97

100

78

99 

100

100

71

74

COMECON

1

28

2 

68

4

5

3

3 

13

23

10

9

MAJOR MINERAL CONSUMERS, AS PERCENTAGE OF WORLD CONSUMPTION IN

1977

Asbestos _________ 

Aluminum

Chromium

Cobalt

Copper

Iron ore

Lead

Manganese

Nickel

Phosphate

Silver

Zinc

U.S.A.

11

33

16

28

22

18

22

13

22

19

32

17

USSR

34 

12

17

16

14

28

14

29

19

18

12

16

JAPAN

6 

10

7

18

13

18

6

12

15

3

13

12

F.R. 

GERMANY

7 

6

7

8

8

8

6

8

8

3

9

6

OTHERS

42 

39

53

30

43

28

52

38

36

59

34

49

MAJOR MINERAL PRODUCERS, AS PERCENTAGE OF WORLD PRODUCTION IN 1977

Asbestos ___ USSR, 46; Canada, 29; South Africa, 7; U.S.A., 2; Others, 16

Bauxite____ Australia, 31; Guinea, 15; Jamaica. 14; U.S.A., 2; Others, 38

Chromium __ South Africa, 34; USSR, 26; Albania, 9; Southern Rhodesia, 7; U.S.A., 0;

	Others, 24

Cobalt ____ Zaire, 36; New Caledonia, 14; Australia, 12; Zambia, 8; U.S.A., 0; Others, 30

Copper ____ U.S.A., 18; Chile, 14; USSR, 12; Canada, 10; Others, 46

Iron ore ___ USSR, 28; Australia, 11; Brazil, 10; Canada, 7; U.S.A., 7; Others, 37

Lead _____ U.S.A., 16; USSR, 15; Australia, 13; Canada, 8; Others, 48

Manganese _ USSR, 35; South Africa, 24; Gabon, 11; Australia, 8; U.S.A., 0; Others, 2

Nickel _____ Canada, 30; USSR, 21; New Caledonia, 14; U.S.A., 2; Others, 33

Phosphate __ U.S.A., 41; USSR, 21; Morocco, 15; Others, 23

Silver _____ Mexico, 14; USSR, 14; Canada, 13; U.S.A., 12; Others, 47

Zinc _____ Canada, 21; USSR, 12; Australia, 8; U.S.A., 7; Others, 52

DEMAND CONSIDERATIONS

We cannot foretell the future by mere extrapolation of 

historical trends. Instead, estimates of future demand must 

be based upon known and foreseeable specific end-use applications, taking into account commodity interrelationships, including feasible substitutes and alternates. Many 

key mineral commodities are used in more or less direct 

proportion to steel production. Accordingly, the growth of 

world steel production is an important key to the future. 

Bureau of Mines' forecasts point to a world raw steel production in the year 2000 of some 1,200 million metric tons, 

of which the United States is projected to produce about 

180 million metric tons.

As an illustration of possible changes in use, consider 

the U.S. automotive industry which now consumes about 

26 percent of iron and steel, 16 percent of aluminum, 12 

percent of copper, 69 percent of lead (15 percent in 

gasoline and 54 percent in other uses), 34 percent of zinc, 

and 40 percent of platinum-group metals. In recent years 

automobile weights have been reduced by as much as 1,000 

pounds to improve fuel efficiency, and further reductions 

are in prospect. A leading automotive manufacturer predicted that by 1985 net weights could be in the area of 

2,700 to 2,800 pounds —a reduction of about 15 percent 

from 1978 weights. Aluminum, magnesium, plastics, and 

fiber glass are being given increasing attention as 

substitutes for the traditional 2,500 pounds of steel in an 

automobile. Special steel products such as coated and 

high-strength, low-alloy (HSLA) steels also are expected to 

be used increasingly in motor vehicles in the next few 

years. The United States, with a population of 220 million, 

now has over 140 million motor vehicles in service—the 

equivalent of over 2 years of total U.S. steel production.

Escalating growth in the use of plastics illustrates how 

a new mineral-based material can limit use of more traditional ones. Plastics are largely mineral-based materials in 

that about 2 pounds of petroleum yield 1 pound of 

plastics. In 1978, 17 million short tons of plastics were used 

in the United States, up from only 1 million short tons 

three decades ago. Current annual consumption of plastics 

is approaching twice the combined tonnages of aluminum, 

copper, lead, and zinc. With a specific gravity in the 

vicinity of 1, the annual volume of new plastics consumed 

is approaching the volume of steel. No wonder that major 

metal firms are diversifying not only into other metals but 

also into plastics.

Programs to improve energy supplies and utilization 

can be expected to have major impacts upon such materials 

as chromium, cobalt, columbium, molybdenum, nickel, 

platinum, tantalum, and titanium. Resistance to high 

temperatures, corrosion, and erosion is of particular importance in energy-related applications (table 3). The efficiency of thermodynamic processes is enhanced by increased temperature differentials, and the number of 

elements with high melting points is very limited (fig. 2). 

Coal gasification, coal liquefaction, magnetohydrodynamics, nuclear fission, and fusion can be expected to 

make unprecedented demands upon special-property 

mineral materials. Even electric power generation in conventional steam power plants will make unprecedented 

demands upon special-property materials if air quality 

regulations are to be realized. At present in the United 

States nearly 500 million tons of coal are being burned annually by electric utilities, and about 43 percent of our electricity is derived from coal. At least 15 tons of air are required to burn a ton of coal. If vigorous stack gas cleanup 

is to become a reality, 8 billion tons of hot corrosive gases 

will have to be handled in the process.

World Nonfuel Mineral Supply 205
Table 3 1978 U.S. consumption of metals whose corrosion resistance is a major factor in their selection by industry

[H.T., high temperature; st, short ton; mt, metric ton; W indicates data withheld to maintain a company's proprietary information.]

Metal

Nickel

Zirconium, metal and all 

Titanium, metal _

Titanium, nonmetal

Chromium

Cadmium

Zinc

Tin

Gold_

Columbium

Platinum group _

Rare earths (REO)

Silver

Copper

Cobalt

Iron oxide pigments

Molybdenum

Tantalum

Magnesium

Hafnium

Total 

consumption

oy

Thorium (ThO2), nonenergy _____ 

Aluminum

Indium

Lead

Beryllium

Manganese

Source: Bureau of Mines, 

F

MORE EFFICIENT USE OF 

ENERGY REQUIRES IMPROVED < 

HIGH TEMPERATURE ALLOYS

THE MELTING POINT OF 

IRON 2800°F(1538°C)ON 

WHICH STEEL METALLURGY —— 

IS BASED

COMMONLY USED 

METALS GENERALLY 

HAVE LOW MELTING ^ 

POINTS

Figure 2 Melting po 

points above iron i 

temperatures (Source:

July 23, 197

mRENHEIT 

7000°—

6000°— 

5000°-!

, 4000°—

3000°— 

- —— — *^

2000°-^ 

1000°-^

°~?

ints of 

md ma 

Bureau

232,000 st 

4,000 st 

20,000 st 

509,000 st 

590,000 st 

4,500 mt 

1,140,500 mt 

61,500 mt 

4,738,000 toz 

7,099,000 Ib 

2,259,558 toz 

18,500 st 

160,210,000 toz 

2,480,000 st 

18,870,000 Ib 

226,500 st 

67,724,000 Ib 

1,772,000 Ib 

109,000 st 

56,000 Ib 

35 st 

6,011,000 st 

W 

1,333,000 mt 

188 st 

1,415,000 st

9.

\

all 

or 

ofl

CELSIUS

Percent 

Use type where corrosion resistance is major factor Quantity of total

alloying 37 percent, H.T. ox. res. 32 percent, plating 16 percent 197,000 85 

alloying, chemical resistance 3,400 85 

metal products 65 percent, alloying 10 percent 16,000 80 

coatings 260,000 51 

alloying 58 percent, coatings and plating 4 percent 366,000 62 

plating 40 percent, coatings 13 percent 2,400 53 

galvanizing 40 percent, coatings and sacrificial 2 percent 480,000 42 

plating, tinning 22,500 37 

plating, alloying, coating, cladding 1,660,000 35 

alloying, H.T. oxidation resistance 2,400,000 34 

alloying, chemical and H.T. resistance 678,000 30 

alloying 5,500 30 

alloying 41,743,000 26 

alloying and plumbing 620,000 25 

alloying, H.T. oxidation resistance 4,299,000 23 

coatings (primers and undercoatings) 50,000 22 

alloying, coatings 13,500,000 20 

alloying, cladding, H.T. ox. res. 320,000 18 

alloying, sacrificial 16,000 15 

alloying 6,000 11 

alloying 4 11 

alloying, coatings, cladding 600,000 10 

coatings W 10 

coatings and plating 6 percent, cable covering 1 percent 93,000 7 

alloying 9 5 

alloying, cladding 55,000 4

SUPPLY CONSIDERATIONS

\

In many parts of the world rugged terrain, hostile 

-3500° CARBorj physical climates, and often hostile politicoeconomic

TUNGSTEN ,. ..... , ,, 11, f

climates inhibit exploration for and development of

RHENIUM

- 30000 OSMIUM TANTALUM mineral resources. Fortunately, some of the most populous 

: regions are also large in area; thus there is the promise that 

MOLYBDENUM improved standards of living may be possible in Asia with 

r 2500° COLUMBIUM IROUM * present population of nearly 2.5 billion people but an 

I H°FRNIUM RUTHENIUM &&• of 44 million square kilometers, in Africa with over 

I 2000o 0.4 billion people but an area of 30 million square 

I CHROMIUM VANADIUM ZIRCONIUM kilometers, and in Latin America with over 0.3 billion peoTHORIUM PJ^UM TITANIUM pje but an ^^^ of ^ million square kilometers. In com-

~ -.c^n PALLADIUM THULIUM SCANDIUM . iir-in 1 tJX-J -15000 IRorj COBALT NICKEL parison, the United States has already found extensive 

- BERYLLIUM MArjGArjESE mineral deposits in its 9 million square kilometers, but 

" innno URXWIUM COPPER GOLD even so, far more needs to be done to investigate our

— 1 UUOU SILVER

I mineral resources on land, on the continental shelves, and

ALUMINUM MAGNESIUM jj^ fHC dfiCD SCclS 

— 500°

- TMCD Once mineral deposits of economic significance are 

- TM found, there are possibilities of improved technology to 

\~° MERCURY permit treating lower grades of ore and to recover ac- 

/ cessory minerals. For example, for many years, the U.S. 

Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Mines have 

known elements with melting helped to discover and to assess numerous domestic 

metals that melt at lower chromium deposits. The Bureau produced acceptable 

vlines, April 1, 1979). chrome concentrates from domestic deposits as well as ac206 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
ceptable ferrochromium, chromium metal, chromite 

refractories, and chromium chemicals. Consequently, 

presently submarginal deposits could become sources of 

supply at some future time. Current Bureau research includes recovering chromium, nickel, and cobalt from 

laterite deposits and also from flue dusts, plating wastes, 

and other residues.

In many regions escalating energy costs will increase 

the costs of mining, beneficiating, smelting, and refining 

mineral materials. Nevertheless, while many presently industrialized nations are experiencing energy shocks caused 

by escalating prices for fuels, they should not overlook 

that the cost of producing petroleum in Arabia is reportedly only about $0.50 per barrel and that such 

petroleum production is accompanied by major quantities 

of natural gas, which are currently being flared. Consequently, in the Middle East there are prospects of greatly 

increased materials production, including direct reduction 

of metals, electrodeposition using electricity generated by 

gas engines, and production of petrochemicals and 

plastics. Further, there are still many favorable sites in the 

world for both high-head and low-head hydroelectric 

development where, if political stability could be ensured, 

major mineral-material producing complexes could be 

created.

There are also many possibilities for making use of 

currently known waste materials. For example, in the 

United States we are now burning about 500 million tons 

of utility coal containing about 13 percent ash —which 

yields over 50 million tons of coal ash annually. Fly ash is 

typically vesicular, porous, and glassy in nature, with 

many trace elements. Mineralogically the major crystalline 

components, upon annealing, are mullite, magnetite, and 

quartz, with minor amounts of hematite and anhydrite. A 

typical concentrated fly ash contains about 10 percent iron 

oxide and 2 percent carbon; the remaining 88 percent is a 

mullite-quartz-anhydrite mixture. If only half of the 50 

million tons per year of ash were beneficiated it would 

represent over 250,000 tons of iron ore, not to mention 

large amounts of carbon, mostly flake. Small amounts of 

fly ash are currently being used in pozzolan cement and in 

such construction products as bricks and sintered aggregates. But what about a refractory aggregate from a 

mullite-rich fraction? A castable mix? A raw material for 

Portland cement? Or possibly a source of alumina? 

Similarly, we now treat about 400 million tons per year of 

copper concentrates containing 0.5 percent copper. What 

multiple nonmetallic minerals are present in the 99.5 percent that is now rejected onto tailings piles and into slime 

pounds, but that could be used in ceramic flowsheets? 

These concepts deserve thoughtful consideration in 

mineral supply programs which must also be concerned

with energy and the environment. Already significant 

quantities of several metals are being effectively recycled. 

The use of flywheels to deliver power to offset sudden 

increases in load is accepted practice in machinery design, 

and the use of surge bins is standard practice in materials 

handling. Expanding such analogies to national economies 

points to the desirability of maintaining larger than normal 

working inventories to deal with unexpected interferences 

with normal supplies such as may be occasioned by 

politicoeconomic disruptions or natural disasters such as 

earthquakes, landslides, hurricanes, and floods. However, 

escalating costs and higher interest rates in recent years 

have tended to discourage the private sector from maintaining large inventories. Ever since 1939 the United States 

has been committed to a policy of stockpiling strategic and 

critical materials for defense purposes. At present 93 

materials are on the U.S. stockpile list (table 4), of which 

79 are metals and minerals. The value of the materials in 

the U.S. stockpile is about $11 billion, the greatest part attributable to metals and minerals. However, by law "the 

purpose of the stockpile is to serve the interest of national 

defense only and is not to be used for economic or 

budgetary purposes." Other countries, including Germany, 

France, and Japan, either have or are considering stockpiling programs to protect against interruptions of supply. 

Tax incentives for the maintenance of larger than normal 

working inventories have been in effect in Sweden for a 

number of years. In the Swedish system a large proportion 

of the acquisition costs of raw materials can be written-off 

in computing taxable income for the year in which 

materials are acquired, in contrast to current U.S. practice, 

which limits deduction of raw material costs to the year in 

which materials are actually used in manufacturing. The 

wide variety of materials in use (for example, "chromium" 

can be metallurgical, chemical, or refractory ores from 

many sources; high-, medium-, or low-carbon ferrochromium; exothermic or electrolytic chromium metal; 

sodium bichromate; etc.) would seem to commend some 

such device as the Swedish system, which moreover tends 

to permit informed judgments by numerous buyers and 

sellers, rather than direct market intervention by government entities.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATIONS

We are now encountering increasing concerns with the 

role of trace or fugitive elements, compounds, and particulates in possible air, water, and land pollution, and the 

synergistic effects thereof on the symbiotic relationships 

that have developed over time. We really know very little 

of the distribution of the naturally occurring elements and 

their millions of compounds at parts-per-million or partsper-billion levels. In fact, it is only in recent years that, for

World Nonfuel Mineral Supply 207
Table 4 Basic stockpile materials in the United States

1. Alumina

2. Aluminum

3. Aluminum oxide, abrasive 

grain

4. Aluminum oxide, fused, 

crude

5. Antimony

6. Asbestos, amosite

7. Asbestos, chrysotile

8. Bauxite, metal grade, 

Jamaica

9. Bauxite, metal grade, 

Surinam

10. Bauxite, refractory

11. Beryl ore (11 percent BeO)

12. Beryllium copper master alloy

13. Beryllium metal

14. Bismuth

15. Cadmium

16. Castor oil, sebacic acid

17. Chromite, chemical grade ore

18. Chromite, metallurgical grade 

ore

19. Chromite, refractory grade 

ore

20. Chromium, ferro, high 

carbon

21. Chromium, ferro, low carbon

22. Chromium, ferro, silicon

23. Chromium, metal

24. Cobalt

25. Columbium carbide powder

26. Columbium concentrates

27. Columbium, ferro

28. Columbium, metal

29. Copper

30. Cordage fibers, abaca

31. Cordage fibers, sisal

32. Diamond dies, small

33. Diamond, industrial, crushing 

bort

34. Diamond, industrial, stones

35. Feathers and down

36. Fluorspar, acid grade

37. Fluorspar, metallurgical 

grade

38. Graphite, natural —Ceylon, 

amorphous lump

39. Graphite, natural —Malagasy, 

crystalline

40. Graphite, natural —other than 

Ceylon and Malagasy

41. Iodine

42. Jewel bearings

43. Lead

44. Manganese, battery grade, 

natural ore

45. Manganese, battery grade, 

synthetic dioxide

46. Manganese ore, chemical 

grade

47. Manganese ore, metallurgical 

grade

48. Manganese, ferro, high 

carbon

49. Manganese, ferro, low 

carbon

50. Manganese, ferro, medium 

carbon

51. Manganese, ferro, silicon

52. Manganese, metal, electrolytic

53. Mercury

54. Mica, muscovite block, 

stained and better

55. Mica, muscovite film, first 

and second qualities

56. Mica, muscovite splittings

57. Mica, phlogopite block

58. Mica, phlogopite splittings

59. Molybdenum disulphide

60. Molybdenum, ferro

61. Nickel

62. Opium, gum

63. Opium, salt

64. Platinum group metals, 

iridium

65. Platinum group metals, 

palladium

66. Platinum group metals, 

platinum

67. Pyrethrum

68. Quartz crystals

69. Quinidine

70. Quinine

71. Rubber

72. Rutile

73. Sapphire and ruby

74. Shellac

75. Silicon carbide, crude

76. Silver (fine)

77. Talc, steatite block and lump

78. Tantalum carbide powder

79. Tantalum metal

80. Tantalum minerals

81. Thorium nitrate

82. Tin

83. Titanium sponge

84. Tungsten carbide powder

85. Tungsten, ferro

86. Tungsten, metal powder

87. Tungsten ores and concentrates

88. Vanadium, ferro

89. Vanadium pentoxide

90. Vegetable tannin extract, 

chestnut

91. Vegetable tannin extract, 

quebracho

92. Vegetable tannin extract, 

wattle

93. Zinc

Source: "Stockpile report to the Congress, April 1979," from the Federal Preparedness Agency.

most materials, we have been able to make such 

measurements with these degrees of precision. Very little is 

known of the ranges of tolerance by plants, animals, and 

man of individual elements and compounds, to say 

nothing of their effects in various possible combinations 

and permutations. We need to know far more about the 

natural distribution of elements and compounds in the 

rocks, soils, waters, air, flora, and fauna of the Earth, and 

we also need to know far more about the precise distribution of elements and compounds in each phase of the 

mineral processing cycle. If we do not greatly increase our 

efforts in this direction, we will continuously encounter 

unanticipated threats to mineral development as new 

discoveries are made in the effluents of the mineral sector 

of the economy. "Zero discharge" for most materials at 

parts-per-million or parts-per-billion levels will be exceedingly difficult if not impossible to obtain. Fortunately, 

a major increase in research on the distribution of the trace 

or fugitive elements, compounds, and particulates should 

have important direct benefits in contributing not only to 

the search for new mineral deposits but also to a better 

understanding of the forces that have been, that are, and 

that will continue to be at work in the evolution of the 

Earth itself.

SUPPLY/DEMAND OUTLOOK TO YEAR 2000 A.D.

Detailed Bureau of Mines forecasts to the year 2000 

(table 5) show that presently known world reserves of most 

mineral materials should be adequate to meet world 

demands over the next two decades and that for many 

minerals the United States itself is in a favorable position. 

At this time world deficits are foreseen only for asbestos, 

bismuth, fluorine, germanium, graphite, indium, mercury, 

sheet mica, silver, sulfur, and zinc. However, in making 

such assessments as these, the dynamic nature of estimates 

of demand, reserves, and resources must be kept in mind. 

Unforeseen uses may stimulate demand, new discoveries 

may enlarge both reserves and resources, and restrictive actions may move presently proved reserves back into the 

subeconomic resource category. However, if we continue 

to encourage research and education covering the processes by which raw rocks are converted to materials and 

energy to satisfy mankind's needs, and if we also continue 

to maintain politicoeconomic systems that encourage 

mineral exploration and development along with conservation and recycling, increased material standards of living 

should clearly be possible, even as world population 

increases.

208 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Table 5 Comparison of world cumulative primary mineral demand forecasts, 1976 to 2000, with world identified recoverable mineral 

reserves.

[Totals may not add due to rounding; A indicates reserves adequate; NA indicates data not available; Vindicates data withheld because of 

company confidentiality.]

UNITS OF MEASURE:

C.F. cubic feet KG 

FL flask (76 pounds) LB

kilogram 

pounds (avoirdupois)

PRIMARY MINERAL 

DEMAND FORECASTS

Commodity and quantity

United 

States

Rest of 

World World

L.T. long ton (2,240 pounds) 

M.T. metric ton (2,204.6 pounds)

1976 MINERAL 

RESERVES

United 

States

Rest of 

World World

S.T. short ton (2,000 pounds) 

T. oz. troy ounce (1.09714 avoirdupois 

ounces)

RATIO OF RECOVERABLE RESERVES 

TO CUMULATIVE DEMAND

United 

States

Rest of 

World World

METALS AND MINERAL FORMING ELEMENTS

Aluminum (million S.T.)

Antimony (thousand S.T.)

Arsenic (thousand S.T.)

Beryllium (thousand S.T.)

Bismuth (million LB)

Boron (million S.T.)

Bromine (million LB)

Cadmium (thousand S.T.)

Cesium (thousand LB)

Chlorine (million S.T.)

Chromium (million S.T.)

Cobalt (million LB)

Columbium (million LB)

Copper (million S.T.)

Fluorine (million S.T.)

Gallium (thousand KG)

Germanium (thousand LB )

Gold (million T. oz)

Hafnium (S.T.)

Indium (million T. oz)

Iodine (million LB)

Iron in ore (billion S.T.)

Lead (million S.T.)

Lithium (thousand S.T.)

Magnesium (million S.T.) 1

Manganese (million S.T.)

Mercury (thousand FL)

Molybdenum (billion LB)

Nickel (million S.T.)

Nitrogen -fixed (million S.T.)

Nitrogen — elemental (million S.T.) ____ 

Palladium (million T. oz)

Platinum (million T. oz)

Rare earths and Yttrium 

(thousand S.T.)2

Rhenium (thousand LB)

Rhodium (million T. oz)

Rubidium (thousand LB)

Scandium (KG)

Selenium (million LB)

Silicon (thousand S.T.)

Silver (million T. oz)

Strontium (thousand S.T.)

Sulfur (million L.T.)

Tantalum (million LB)

Tellurium (million LB)

Thallium (thousand LB)

Thorium (thousand S.T.)

Tin (thousand M.T.)

Titanium (million S.T.) 1

Tungsten (million LB)

Vanadium (thousand S.T.)

Zinc (million S.T.)

Zirconium (million S.T.) 1

275

907 

W 

9

80

5

9,296 

216 

1,780 

419 

18 

698

322 

62 

26 

450 

1,517 

200

1,220 

23 

280 

3 

28 

153

44 

42 

1,330 

3 

7 

500

608 

20

22

541 

193

2

61

258 

40 

21,000 

4,200 

439

400 

64 

10 

39 

2 

1,160

22 

721 

470 

39 

3

682 

1,669 

720 

6 

203 

11

9,699

477 

1,950 

722 

69 

2,030

972 

256 

69 

230 

3,920 

954

1,090 

32 

660 

18 

99 

107

158 

348 

4,740 

7 

20 

1,540

720 

65 

66

425 

113 

3

45 

238 

67 

76,000 

7,216 

239

1,460 

45 

6 

73 

3 

5,440

59

2,210 

890

162

7

958 

2,576 

W 

15 

283 

16

18,995 

693

3,730 

1,141

87 

2,728

1,294 

318 

95 

680 

5,437 

1,154

2,310 

56 

940 

20 

127 

260

202 

390 

6,070 

10

27 

2,040

1,328 

85 

88

966 

306

5

106 

496 

107 

97,000 

11,416 

678

1,860 

109 

15 

112 

5 

6,600

81 

2,931 

1,360 

201 

11

10 

120 

400

28 

20

22

A

220

A 

<.l

93 

3 

1,000 

900 

110

A 

10 

530 

4 

28 

410

A

410 

8 

<.l 

A

A 

<.l 

<.l

5,050 

2,600 

<.l

A 

74 

A 

1,510

205

19

192 

140 

40

31 

275 

115 

24 

6

5,600 

4,620 

2,700 

391 

164 

67

A 

540 

218,000 

A 

829 

3,300

22,000 

410 

34 

A 

3,100 

1,105

A

41 

5,220 

99 

108

NA

A 

1,800 

4,800 

12 

60 

A

A 

194 

297

2,680 

4,400 

17

2,100 

A 

298 

A

4,590 

1,155

1,495 

130 

82 

1,008 

640 

9,960

303 

3,925 

10,500 

142 

16

5,610 

4,740 

3,100 

419 

184 

89

A 

760 

218,000 

A 

829 

3,300

22,000 

503 

37 

A 

4,000 

1,215

A 

51 

5,750 

103 

136 

NA

A 

1,800 

5,210 

20 

60 

A

A 

194

297

7,730 

7,000 

17

2,100 

A 

372 

A 

6,100 

1,155

1,700 

130 

101 

1,200 

780 

10,000

334 

4,200 

10,600 

166

22

<.l 

.1 

W 

3.1 

.3 

4.4

>10:1 

1.0

A 

<.l

1.5 

.1 

2.2 

.6 

.6

>10:1 

.4 

1.8 

1.5 

1.0 

2.8

>10:1

.3 

2.9 

<.l 

>10:1

>10:1

9.3 

>10:1

>10:1 

1.9 

>10:1

.4

.5

1.9

4.9 

>10:1 

.1

1.4 

.4 

.2 

.6 

2.0

8.2 

2.8

3.8 

>10:1 

.8 

6.1

>10:1 

1.1 

A 

A 

>10:1 

1.6

22.6 

1.6 

.5 

>10:1 

.8 

1.2

>10:1 

1.3 

7.9 

5.6 

1.1 

NA

>10:1 

5.2 

1.0 

1.8 

2.9 

>10:1

>10:1 

3.0

4.5

6.3 

10:1 

5.9

>10:1 

>10:1 

4.5 

>10:1 

.6 

4.8

1.0 

2.9 

>10:1 

>10:1 

>10:1 

1.8

5.1 

1.8 

>10:1 

.9 

2.0

5.8

1.8 

W 

>10:1 

.7 

5.6

>10:1 

1.1 

A 

A 

9.5 

1.2

17.0 

1.6 

.4 

>10:1 

.7 

1.1

>10:1 

.9 

6.0 

5.1 

1.1 

NA

>10:1 

4.6 

.9 

2.1 

2.2 

>10:1

>10:1

2.3 

3.4

8.0 

10:1 

3.3

>10:1 

>10:1

3.5 

>10:1 

.5 

1.7

.9 

1.2 

6.6 

>10:1 

>10:1 

1.5

4.1 

1.4 

7.8 

.8 

2.0

Data include metal content in metallic and nonmetallic commodities. Contains rare-earth oxides (REO).

World Nonfuel Mineral Supply 209
Table 5 Comparison of world cumulative primary mineral demand forecasts, 1976 to 2000, with world identified recoverable mineral 

reserves — Continued

[Totals may not add due to rounding; A indicates reserves adequate; NA indicates data not available; Vindicates data withheld because of 

company confidentiality.]

UNITS OF MEASURE:

C.F. cubic feet KG 

FL flask (76 pounds) LB

kilogram 

pounds (avoirdupois)

PRIMARY MINERAL 

DEMAND FORECASTS

Commodity and quantity

United 

States

Rest of 

World World

L.T. long ton (2,240 pounds) 

M.T. metric ton (2,204.6 pounds)

1976 MINERAL 

RESERVES

United 

States

Rest of 

World World

S.T. short ton (2,000 pounds) 

T. oz. troy ounce (1.09714 avoirdupois 

ounces)

RATIO OR RECOVERABLE RESERVES 

TO CUMULATIVE DEMAND

United 

States

Rest of 

World World

NONMETALLIC MINERAL

Asbestos (million S.T.) _

Barite (million S.T.)

Clays (billion S.T.)

Corundum (thousand S.T.) _ _

Diatomite (million S.T.) _

Feldspar (million S.T.)

Garnet (thousand S.T.)

Graphite (million S.T.)

Gypsum (million S.T.) _

Kyanite (million S.T.)

Lime (million S.T.)

Mica— scrap and flake 

(thousand S.T.)

Mica— sheet (thousand LB) __

Peat (million S.T.) _

Perlite (million S.T.)

Phosphate rock (million M.T.) _______ 

Potash (million S.T.)

Pumice (million S.T.)

Salt (million S.T.)

Sand and gravel 

(billion S.T.) __

17 

50 

3 

24 

19

31 

613 

2 

636 

W

646

4,000 

70,200 

55 

22

966 

213 

169 

1,460

25

184 

99 

15 

361 

50

103 

418 

11 

1,072 

15

3,011

3,500 

429,000 

7,300 

51

2,971 

827 

545 

4,170

NA

201 

149 

18 

385 

70

134 

1,031 

13 

2,338 

W

3,657

7,500 

499,200

7,355 

73

3,937 

1,039 

714 

5,630

NA

4 

65 

A

600

600 

700

500 

30

A

A 

<.l 

10,000 

200

3,500 

200 

1,250 

A

A

92 

135 

A 

A 

1,400

400 

1,540 

10 

1,780 

70

A

A 

365,000 

40,000 

810

22,232 

13,030 

815 

A

A

96 

200 

A 

A 

2,000

1,000 

2,240 

10 

2,280 

100

A

A 

365,000 

50,000 

1,010

25,732 

12,230 

2,065 

A

A

0.2 

1.3 

>10:1

>10:1

19.4 

1.1

.8 

W

A 

>10:1

>10:1 

9.0

3.6 

.9

7.4 

A

A

0.5 

1.4 

>10:1 

>10:1 

>10:1

3.9 

3.7 

.9 

1.1

4.7

A

>10:1 

.9 

5.5 

>10:1

7.5 

>10:1 

1.5 

A

A

0.5 

1.3 

>10:1 

>10:1 

>10:1

7.5 

2.2 

.8 

1.0 

W

A

>10:1 

.7 

6.8 

>10:1

6.5 

>10:1 

2.9 

A

A

Soda ash (million S.T.)

Stone -crushed (billion S.T.)

Stone— dimension (million S.T.)

Talc (million S.T.)

Vermiculite (million S.T.) _

COMMERCIAL GASES

Argon (million S.T.) _ _

Helium (billion C.F.)

Oxygen (million S.T.)

230

29

27

35

10

14

23

800

605

225

1,025

190

9

10

NA

1,500

835

254

1,052

225

19

24

NA

2,300

A

A

A

150

100

A

3 149

A

A

A

A

180

90

A

NA

A

A

A

A

330

190

A

NA

A

> 10:1

> 10:1

> 10:1

4.3

10.0

>10:1

6.5

> 10:1

> 10:1

> 10:1

1.0

10.0

>10:1

NA

>10:1

> 10:1

> 10:1

10:1

1.5

10.0

>10:1

NA

10:1

3 Does not include 38 billion cubic feet in storage. 

Source: Bureau of Mines, 1979

John D. Morgan, Jr.

Chief Staff Officer

U.S. Bureau of Mines

Room 1038, Columbia Plaza Office Building

2401 E Street, NW

Washington, D.C. 20241

210 Resources for the Twenty-first Century

Water and People

Portion of Los Angeles Owens River Aqueduct crossing the 

desert. Photograph by Department of Water and Power, City of 

Los Angeles.

212 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Philippine Water Resources Policies 

An Appraisal

Angel A. Alejandrino

Executive Director

National Water Resources Council

The Philippines

In the Philippines, as in many countries, water policies 

have evolved over a long period of time. When the water 

supplies are abundant and the needs of the people are few, 

the policies are just as simple. As the population grows, 

competition for water resources becomes significant and 

more policy statements are issued. Some tend to be more 

sophisticated.

Policy statements are found in the various laws passed 

by the legislature, in the executive orders of the President, 

and in the resolutions and regulations of implementing 

agencies. Some are not even articulated but have been accepted because of common practice, tradition, and common sense.

The Philippines, by nature, is endowed with abundant 

water resources. Its average annual rainfall is about 2,500 

millimeters. Dependable supply from rivers is estimated at 

about 700 million cubic meters per day. This is more than 

twice the needs of the whole country for the next twenty 

years. Groundwater reservoirs are found extensively in the 

plains where most of the people live.

In spite of these facts, there is an increasing competition in the development of water resources. What was once 

considered an unlimited natural resource is now becoming 

a scarce commodity in some areas. The increased pace of 

development of the country in the early 1970's has made it 

necessary for government to regulate the water resources 

sector.

Among the major acts taken are the articulation of 

basic water policies, the codification of all water laws, and 

the creation of an independent agency to formulate the 

guidelines to implement the laws and policies on water 

resources development and management. All of these actions are based on the fundamental concept that all waters, 

like all other natural resources, belong to the State. This 

was first expressed in the 1935 Constitution and again in 

the 1973 Constitution of the Philippines.

The National Water Resources Council was created in 

1974 not only for the various activities on policy issues but 

mainly for the broader purpose of coordinating and integrating all activities in water resources. The codification 

of more than 50 pieces of legislation dealing with various

aspects of water resources resulted in the promulgation of 

the Water Code of the Philippines of 1976.

The report concerns the policies on water resources as 

established and practiced today (1979). It is an appraisal of 

the institutional framework, the development strategies, as 

well as the financing aspects. The primary objective is to be 

able to draw some conclusions which will serve as basic inputs for future policy decisions.

INSTITUTIONAL FRAMEWORK

The authority and responsibility for the control, conservation, protection, development and regulation of the 

utilization of the water resources of the country belong to 

the State. This is accomplished by the creation of various 

government offices which undertake a very large majority of the water resources programs and projects in the 

country.

Private entities, however, may also engage in water 

resources activities subject to the rules and regulations 

prescribed by the State. A very important requirement, applicable to all persons and entities, is the need for a permit 

from the National Water Resources Council to use the 

waters of the State.

The government organizations may be generally 

characterized in three ways. One way is on the particular 

aspect of water resources for which the agency is responsible. In this manner, there are the offices dealing mainly 

with each of the sectors of the water supply, irrigation, 

hydropower, navigation, pollution, watershed management, etc. The exceptions to this are the Councils and 

Development Authorities whose major role is to coordinate the efforts of the specialized implementing agencies.

A second method is on the source of operational funds 

of the agency and for this there are two groups. The first 

group consists of the various Ministries, Bureaus and other 

offices whose operational expenditures come from general 

revenues or taxation. The other group is composed of the 

government-owned corporations which are revenuegenerating because of the services that they provide. In the 

latter group belong the agencies on water supply, irrigation 

and hydropower.

Philippine Water Resources Policies 213
Another way of classifying the agencies is on their 

respective geographical areas of responsibility or coverage. 

Thus, there are national, regional, and local agencies.

For purposes of administrative supervision, all water 

resources agencies are placed under 12 of the more than 20 

executive ministries of the national government. In the 

case of the government-owned corporations, councils and 

development authorities, supervision is only exercised at 

the policy level. This is generally effected by appointing the 

Head of the Ministry as the Chairman of the Board of 

Directors of the agency that is being supervised. Needless 

to say, the Ministries exercise direct line supervision, 

authority and control over the respective bureaus and 

other offices under them.

These organizational differences lead to inevitable 

consequences. There is a natural tendency for each agency 

to look only after its own targets with little or no consideration to the needs of the other agencies. This makes it 

absolutely necessary to have an effective coordinating 

mechanism.

At the national level, the National Economic and 

Development Authority coordinates the activities of all 

sectors. The particular sector on water resources is coordinated by the National Water Resources Council. For 

regional activities, there are the regional development 

councils and authorities.

Government corporations, in general, have a greater 

flexibility in their operations as compared to other government agencies. For one thing, they do not have to compete 

directly with other agencies for a share of the annual 

budget of the national government for operational expenditures. The expenditures are provided from their revenues 

as well as from their corporate funds.

In case a corporation decides to increase its level of activities, it has the option to request an increase in 

capitalization, to issue bonds, or to resort to local or 

foreign borrowings. While the capitalization is allocated 

from the national budget, any amount not used during the 

year is retained as part of the corporate funds. For the 

other agencies, savings in expenditures over that which is 

budgeted are reverted to the general funds. This will form 

a part of the available funds for competition among all 

agencies in the next annual budgetary cycle.

With regard to personnel, actions and decisions are 

vested in the Board of Directors or in the Head of the Corporation. All of them are aware of the particular needs of 

their organization.

In other offices, personnel actions and decisions are 

subject to the checks and balances of other executive agencies such as the Civil Service Commission, the Ministry of 

the Budget, and the Commission on Audit. Sometimes the 

peculiar needs of the water resources sector are not fully 

appreciated.

One such instance is in the salary scale of corporate 

organizations which is very much higher than that of other 

offices. This has existed for many years and it was only 

recently that a policy has been made to standardize the 

salary scale of all government agencies. Its implementation, however, has been slow so the tendency of the 

technical personnel to gravitate to the government corporations as well as to private agencies still exists.

As stated earlier, the bulk of water resources projects 

are undertaken by the government agencies. For this purpose, planning and programming are done in-house by the 

agencies. In many instances, detailed engineering and construction are entrusted to private industry. This arrangement of involving the private sector to the largest extent 

possible is in line with the national strategy.

A critical problem is on operation and maintenance, 

which government generally undertakes, especially for the 

small water resources systems. To alleviate the situation, 

the government has recently encouraged the formation of 

water consumer associations or cooperatives to be responsible for the operation and maintenance of the systems that 

are turned over to them after completion.

Thus, Irrigation Service Associations and Rural 

Waterworks Associations are being formed with the 

assistance of the government agencies. Assistance is usually provided in the areas of institutional development, 

engineering, financing, and training.

In spite of the many agencies, there are certain aspects 

of water resources development which are not being addressed sufficiently. An example is rural water supply; 

another example is the water data system.

For these, and other similar cases, the approach has 

been to organize Task Forces to solve the immediate problems at hand. In addition, pilot projects are undertaken 

with the end in view of arriving at a recommendation for a 

more permanent solution.

DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY

The current Philippine Development Plan, 1978-1987, 

outlines the national targets and strategies in attaining an 

improved quality of life for every Filipino. It indicates a 

massive effort to provide for the basic needs of the majority of the population and to promote their economic and 

social well-being.

Among the various development goals of the country, 

the following are related to the water resources sector:

1. Improvement of the living standards of the poor

2. Attainment of self-sufficiency in food

3. Greater self-reliance in energy

4. Proper management of the environment

5. Increased development of lagging regions 

One of the basic thrusts of the government to attain 

these goals is the improvement of the level and quality of

214 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
water supply services. At present, less than half of the 

country's population have reasonable access to public 

water supply systems. In the rural areas where 70 percent 

of the population live, only a third are covered by public 

water services. The rest of the population get their water 

supply from individual or private sources such as shallow 

wells, many of which are easily susceptible to contamination or pollution.

The water supply program aims to increase the public 

water supply coverage to about 85 percent of the population by 1987. In the implementation of the program, three 

levels of service are developed depending upon technical, 

economic, organizational, and financial considerations.

The first level is a point source such as a protected well 

or spring in which the users would have to fetch their water 

from the source. A second level includes a distribution 

system with a number of courtyard faucets, each faucet 

serving about 4 to 6 households. These two levels of services are generally appropriate for the rural areas. The 

third level consists of individual household connections 

from the water supply system. This is generally adopted 

for urban areas.

To attain self-sufficiency in food as well as to promote 

the economic well-being of the farmers, irrigation is a very 

important factor. Actually, the efforts to intensify the construction of irrigation projects started several years ago. 

Rice being the main crop, it requires a large amount of 

water and accounts for about 80 percent of all water 

withdrawals in the country.

This year the country has attained self-sufficiency in 

rice. The irrigation program is a continuing one, however, 

in order to keep pace with a growing demand as well as to 

provide a buffer stock in case of crop failures. By 1987, 

about 70 percent of the arable land of the country will have 

irrigation facilities.

Hydropower provides about 5 percent of the energy 

requirements of the country today. It is envisioned that by 

1987 the share of hydropower will be about double the 

present level. Estimates show that only about 20 percent of 

the total hydropower potential has been developed thus 

far.

Some of the potential hydropower project sites can 

avail themselves of the natural gradient of the river to 

develop the required head. The others require a high dam 

with a large reservoir. Such projects, however, are so 

capital intensive with long gestation periods that it will 

take some time to put them on-stream.

The bulk of flood control activities is concentrated in 

Metro Manila where the incidence of floods results in extensive damage to property and sometimes loss of lives. 

Plans were completed a long time ago but these have been 

implemented only recently.

All of the flood protection measures planned all over 

the country employ structural devices such as dikes, channel improvements, and detention reservoirs. With the creation of a new Ministry of Human Settlements and the 

emerging concepts of land reform, it is envisioned that 

non-structural measures would play a significant role in 

reducing the damages from floods.

The conservation and protection of water resources 

and watersheds is also a major concern of the government. 

In this regard, however, trade-offs with the development 

needs of a growing population are inevitable.

Many of the regulatory measures, though effective, 

are relatively new and recent. This makes it difficult to impose them on existing practices and activities without 

serious social and economic dislocations. It is a major 

challenge that will require sustained efforts to achieve an 

acceptable balance in the development and management of 

the water resources of the country.

In the selection of water resource projects, consideration is given to the depressed and deprived regions which 

have lagged behind in development compared to other 

regions. For some, the integrated area development 

strategy is adopted.

This consists of providing a package of complementary projects such as rural water supply, irrigation, improved farm-to-market roads, health centers and other 

social services. Since the implementation of individual 

projects is undertaken by different agencies, the coordination for the delivery of the package of projects is entrusted 

to the regional development council or authority or to a 

lead agency chosen from among the various implementing 

agencies.

The lead agency concept is also employed for multipurpose projects. In fact, it is a requirement that all water 

resources development projects shall be undertaken on a 

multi-purpose concept using the river basin, or closely 

related basin, approach. Single-purpose projects are only 

implemented if they can be incorporated into the contemplated basin-wide development program.

Although economies of scale favor the prosecution of 

large multi-purpose projects, time constraints and the 

pressing needs of the rural areas necessitate the consideration of smaller projects. Many of these projects are undertaken by the citizens themselves with the assistance of the 

government agencies.

FINANCING ASPECTS OF WATER DEVELOPMENT

The financing of water resources development projects 

of the government is through general revenues, government bonds, local and foreign borrowings, and corporate 

funds. For each of the revenue-generating sectors like 

water supply, irrigation, and hydropower, the levels of expenditures are decided upon by their respective Corporation's Board of Directors. The levels for each corporation 

depend upon the amount of its capitalization, borrowing 

ceiling, and revenue generated.

Philippine Water Resources Policies 215
In the case of the other projects, the levels of expenditures are included in the annual national budget which is 

passed upon by the legislature. These levels are generally 

governed by the priorities as set forth in the Philippine 

Development Plan, the general revenues to be expected, 

and the borrowing capacity of the national government.

Under this arrangement the programs on water supply, irrigation, and hydropower are able to respond more 

expeditiously to the changing demands of the population. 

Current levels of expenditures in these programs reflect the 

high priority given to them as well as to the whole water 

resources sector in general.

It is a national policy that identifiable beneficiaries of 

water resources development projects shall bear an 

equitable share of repayment costs commensurate with the 

beneficial use derived from the project. The only identifiable beneficiaries are those provided with services on 

water supply, irrigation, and hydropower.

Urban water supply and hydropower projects are 

designed for full cost recovery. The tariff rates to consumers of these services are structured so as to include the 

costs of amortization, operations, maintenance, and a 

nominal rate of return. As government corporations, the 

rate of return is limited to about 12 percent.

The beneficiaries of rural water supply and irrigation 

projects in general have a limited capacity to pay the total 

cost of services. In view of this, the national government 

provides some degree of subsidy in the form of grants, 

lower interest rates, and engineering and technical services. 

The costs of operation and maintenance, however, are fully accounted for in determining the tariff rates for these 

services.

There is no uniform policy at the moment on the extent of subsidy for rural water supply. It varies from about 

10 percent to full subsidy, depending on the agency that is 

implementing the project.

The trend, however, is to adopt a maximum of 90 percent as a grant for the first level of rural water supply service. This is in line with the basic-needs commitment of the 

government. The remaining 10 percent is an equity contribution of the local water-works association to indicate 

its commitment for the project.

For the second level of service, it is envisioned to require also a 10 percent local equity. The remaining 90 percent is provided as a loan, with an annual interest of not 

more than 4 percent, repayable in 15 to 20 years. In all 

cases the level of service that is adopted, as well as the 

design of the system, is intended to be within the capability 

of the consumers to pay.

In irrigation projects, 10 percent is provided as a 

grant, 70 percent is a loan which is repaid without interest, 

and the remaining 20 percent is a loan that is repaid with 

an annual interest of 6 percent. The repayment period 

varies from 10 to 25 years.

The irrigation associations are encouraged to furnish 

the right of way, labor, and materials that they can supply. 

As an incentive, the reduction in cost due to the items furnished by the association is applied on that part of the total 

cost to be repaid with interest at 6 percent per annum.

Flood control, drainage, watershed management, and 

other water resources projects, in which the beneficiaries 

are the residents of the community as a whole, are fully 

funded by the national government. There have been questions on why residents of flood-free regions should subsidize the costs of protecting flood-prone areas. On the 

other hand, it is pointed out that the major foodproducing areas as well as a large number of businesses are 

located in the low-lying lands. Any reduction in flood 

losses redounds to the benefit of the whole country. At 

present, however, there are no plans to impose higher 

levies in the flood-prone areas.

In the case of data collection, training and research, it 

is generally agreed that continuing programs for these activities must be maintained since they are indispensable 

components of water resources development. When there 

are shortfalls in expected revenues, however, these are the 

programs which are expendable in comparison with other 

development projects.

One method that has been adopted to insure a 

minimum level of activities is the setting up of trust funds 

in which only the earnings are programmed for expenditures. This provides a significant addition to the annual 

budgetary allocation of the agencies in charge of data collection, training, and research.

THE OUTLOOK

The preceding discussions provided an overview of 

the basic water resources policies of the Philippines. 

These have been mainly centered on the organizational 

concepts, the priorities in development, and the economic 

considerations.

The manner of creating government agencies, each 

with a limited area of responsibility, has resulted in the 

proliferation of many institutions. Although these agencies 

have a certain degree of autonomy, the existence of an effective coordinating mechanism makes the system 

workable.

A corporate structure for government agencies provides operational advantages over the regular bureaus and 

offices. Efforts are being exerted, however, to achieve a 

harmonious balance in programs and projects for the 

whole water resources sector.

In the development of water resources, priorities are 

expected to be responsive to the changing demands for 

water which generally occur under developing conditions. 

With a limited number of project sites available and in the

216 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
interest of maximizing the benefits, multi-purpose projects such time that a sufficient study has been made to render a

on an integrated area development concept are preferred, policy decision. There exists a need, however, to pursue

While it has been traditional to rely on the government more vigorously the implementation of current policies

to undertake the myriad activities in water resources which, after all, is the main reason for their pronouncement, 

development and management, the trend is to involve the

community and private industry in many aspects. In some A d A Alej andrino

instances public participation is long and tedious but the Executive Director

benefits derived are worthwhile. National Water Resources Council

In general, the basic water policies are adequate in u.P.P.O Box 37

relation to the development requirements of the country. Diliman, Quezon City

Gaps, if there are any, are solved in an ad hoc manner until Metro-Manila, The Philippines 3004

Philippine Water Resources Policies 217
The Legal and Administrative Implications of 

the Hydrological Cycle and Water-related 

Resources Facing the Twenty-first Century

Guillermo J. Cano

Honorary President of the International Association for Water Law, 

President of the International Water Resources Association, Argentina

THE "QUID" FOR EFFICIENT WATER LAW AND 

ADMINISTRATION IS THE RECOGNITION OF THE 

UNITY OF THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE

It might seem almost offensive to the scientists and experts gathered at this Centennial Symposium to be reminded that water continually follows a cycle, and that 

said cycle constitutes a unity, with the only exception—slightly significant from the quantitative point of 

view —of connate or confined waters. Thus, the fact that 

waters can be either in the atmosphere, or on the ground 

surface, or underground is just a mere circumstance, 

always temporary.

Human acts or deeds interfere with or interrupt this 

cycle, regardless of any of those states in which water is 

found, thus affecting the subsequent locations through 

which water would pass, given normal circumstances. This 

fact holds particularly true in the case of local hydrological 

subcycles, which, as a whole, make up the overall hydrological cycle. However, we, both lawmakers and lawyers, 

have disregarded this law of Nature.

Nature's law of the unity and perpetuity of the 

hydrological cycle does not distinguish or separate, either, 

between sea water and fresh water, because the former, 

when it evaporates and passes to the atmosphere, leaves 

behind its salts in the sea, retrieving these salts later on 

when the water returns to the sea, either directly, as rain 

water, or via runoff over the firm land in rivers.

People, however, have made a clearcut separation, 

through legal rules, first between sea waters and those 

which are not such, devoting Maritime Law to sea waters 

and the so-called Water Law to the others. And, subsequently, they made a further discrimination when they 

separately legislated on surface and underground waters, 

giving a different legal treatment to each of them.

The separation between Maritime Law and Water Law 

took place because the former mainly deals with only one 

of the uses of water (that is, navigation), rather than with 

water itself, whereas Water Law, which deals with fresh 

waters, encompasses many different uses —municipal, 

domestic, agricultural, industrial, for energy generation, 

and the like.

Since uses of sea water and of the sea bed have greatly 

increased (fishing, mineral and oil exploitation of the sea 

bottom, recreation purposes, tidal energy, and so forth) 

and since now it is necessary to protect said waters from 

the resulting pollution, it has become evident that we need 

to unify and consolidate both branches of legal science 

(Cano, 1976a). This is particularly necessary and urgent in 

connection with coastal and estuarine waters where it is 

difficult to draw a line separating sea waters from continental waters (Sewell, 1976; International Association for 

Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 27). I believe that in 

the 21st Century a single Water Law will govern both sea, 

coastal, and continental waters.

As for the different legal treatment given by human 

laws to surface and underground waters, this fact is not 

due, in this case, so much to the great variety of 

uses —which almost always are the same for both kinds of 

waters — as to the different techniques for abstraction and 

utilization of them. However, when giving these waters 

separate legal treatments, as well as by administering them 

also separately, we have neglected the unity of the 

hydrological cycle, as well as the influence that the handling of surface waters exerts over underground ones and 

vice versa. There are already some modern laws that attempt to remedy such error [Israel Water Law of August 3, 

1959; Peru Water Law of July 24, 1969; Colombia, Code 

on the Renewable Natural Resources and Environment 

Protection, 1974, Art. 77; International Association for 

Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 1.16 (b)]. I believe 

that in the 21st Century an integrated and joint legal and 

administrative treatment of both kinds of waters will be 

widespread.

Furthermore, I believe that atmospheric waters should 

also be dealt with by this combined treatment. Some countries already have legislation on these waters (U.S. Advisory Committee on Weather Control, 1958, 1:23, 2:211; 

Cano, 1976b, 1:99), and their legal regulation in the international field has also been dealt with (Taubenfeld, 1967; 

Moses and Cor bridge, 1967). But it is advisable to reach 

the goal of legislating on and administering all of them 

together, considered as a whole; that is, surface (sea and 

continental), underground, and atmospheric waters. I have

218 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
encouraged this approach in the past, discussing the 

drawbacks that arise when human laws disregard, deviate 

from, or try to twist Nature's laws [International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 16 (b), 29 

(par. 25-27), 32; Cano, 1979a, p. 671.

FACTORS OF CHANGE IN WATER LAW AS THE 

20th CENTURY ENDS

Water Law is as old as civilization: we can find signs 

of it in the "Laws of Manu" and in the pre-Pharaonic 

Egypt (Cano, 1943, p. 36-41). Until the 19th Century, 

Water Law was use-oriented; that is, there were separate 

laws dealing with municipal use, river navigation, irrigation, and the like (Cano, 1976a, par. 23; 1978, p. 98). This 

approach remained virtually unchanged until the beginning of the 20th Century.

But in the 20th Century, Water Law underwent deep 

conceptual changes and it became resource-oriented 

because it became comprehensive of all uses and problems 

related to water. It was at that time that Water Codes and 

General Water Laws appeared (Cano, 1967; International 

Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 7). 

Such a change of approach was brought about by several 

factors, including new technologies, water shortages, environmental problems, energy problems, the need to use 

international water resources, and various water-related 

emergencies.

New Technologies

With the building of large reservoirs and the ensuing 

techniques for water storage, waters began to be 

distributed not according to the runoff but according to 

the supply of stored waters, or else through a combination 

of both. This, in turn, caused a change in the regime of 

water rights (Spain, Direction General de Obras 

Hidraulicas, 1976; Cano, 1979b, art. 340-343).

The introduction of new techniques for the multiple 

use of a single water source made compulsory the apportionment of priorities among different uses, both for the 

allocation of said uses and for the pertinent charges to the 

different users (United Nations, 1970; Cano, 1967, par. 4; 

International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 3).

The remarkable increase in the power and degree of intervention of public authorities in the management of 

waters resulted not only in an increase of governmental 

control but even in the transfer to public or State ownership of certain categories of waters that had traditionally 

been considered private property (International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 14). The need 

to use technologies or financial resources not available to 

private citizens was one of the factors contributing to this 

change.

The need to jointly use and manage water with other 

resources, either natural or not, as a result of their mutual 

interdependence led to the implementation of the technique of multiple means for multiple uses (International 

Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendations 2, 5, 

22; Cano, 1978, p. 194, 237, 248; Cano, 1979a, p. 43; 

White, 1969, p. 34, 36).

Water Shortages

The population explosion and the considerable progress of agricultural, mining, and industrial technologies, 

which geometrically increased the demand for water thus 

making it increasingly scanty on an individual basis, forced 

the adoption of more stringent legal rules dealing with the 

allocation of said water and a more efficient use of such 

water as well. All this also encouraged water recycling (International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 16).

Environmental Problems

These two same factors—the population explosion 

and the progress of technologies — also had an influence on 

the quality of water, polluting it, making it unfit for new 

uses, and thus diminishing the quality of human life itself, 

and, consequently, making compulsory the adoption of 

rules for the prevention and correction of pollution (International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendations 41, 42).

Population implosion—that is, the large-scale emigration of country peoples to large cities — caused a change in 

the pattern of water uses and forced a reapportionment of 

uses and priorities. It has been said that today such reapportionment of uses is more important than the original 

allocation of water rights (Radosevich, 1976).

The new occurrences or the worsening of other factors 

causing environmental degradation and related to the uses 

of water, such as erosion, siltation, eutrophication, floods 

or droughts, and the like, were the determinants for the 

adoption of legal rules aimed at preventing these harmful 

effects of water use (International Association for Water 

Law, 1976, Recommendation 43; Cano, 1979b, art. 

287-301).

Energy Problems

The energy crisis, which has not yet been perceived 

world-wide as an actual fact, but whose partial effects have 

already been foreseen due to the political factors at work, 

has also led to a greater water use or consumption — 

hydroelectric power generation, cooling systems in nuclear 

plants, and the like. Consequently, new legal rules have 

had to be adopted, thus aiming for a more efficient use of 

those water resources with energy-generation potential 

(Cano, 1979a, p. 191).

Legal Implications of the Hydrological Cycle 219
The Need for International Water Resources

There is an increasingly urgent need to use both the 

surface and underground waters of international river 

basins because the waters of the purely national river 

basins are already fully utilized. This also has led to a considerable increase in the body of international Water Law,' 

although the desirable levels of utilization have not been 

reached yet.

Emergencies

The increasingly frequent occurrences of water-related 

emergencies, such as droughts and floods, point to the 

need to establish legal acknowledgement of said situations 

and then to adopt ad hoc legislation (Hayton, 1977; United 

Nations, 1976; Cano, 1979b, art. 101-108).

All the foregoing legislative trends have been dealt 

with by several international conferences, followed by 

publication of the pertinent recommendations as follows: 

International Conferences on Water Law and Administration: First Conference, Mendoza, Argentina, 1968, recorded in Annales Juris Aquarium I (AJA I); Second Conference, Caracas, Venezuela, 1976, International Association for Water Law (AJA II and Asociacion Internacional 

de Derecho de Aguas II [AIDA II, Recommendations 

48-52); Second International Conference on Global Water 

Law Systems, Valencia, Spain, 1975 (report published 

1976); and United Nations Water Conference, Mar del 

Plata, Argentina, 1977 (U.N. Doc. E/70.29).

CHALLENGES POSED BY THE 21st CENTURY

For Water Lawmakers

I am not an expert in "futurology" and I do not have a 

crystal ball either. But, both water law and water management require extreme caution so as not to fall into the 

hands of quacks. I do not mean to critize the experts in 

resource prediction but only those self-styled "futurologists" who lack the essential scientific background.

However, it is not necessary to be a clairvoyant to 

foretell that the aforementioned world problems, stemming especially from multiple use, severe shortages, 

population pressures, environmental and energy constraints, and serious emergencies, will be the problems with 

which water lawmakers and water administrators will be 

concerned in the 21st Century. And some of these problems deserve a brief comment, which I wish to make here 

in connection with the general subject of this Centennial 

Symposium.

' Those interested in recent developments should consult reports on the rules of the International Law Association, particularly for the conferences on "non-maritime" water at Helsinki 

(52nd Conference, 1966), at New York (55th Conference, 1972), at New Delhi (56th Conference, 

1974), and at Madrid (58th Conference, 1976). Recommendations 48, 50, and 52 by the Second 

Water Law Conference (1976) of the International Association for Water Law should also be 

reviewed. Other legal developments are well documented in various reports, particularly in 

paragraphs 50 and 90-93 of the United Nations Water Conference at Mar del Plata (1977) and by 

Cano in the proceedings of the Fourth World Congress on Water Resources at Mexico City (1979).

New technologies must not be accepted and implemented without prior consideration of their ethical implications, as well as their adaptability to the needs of the 

particular physical and human environment where they are 

to be applied. In this sense, Water Law can adopt precautionary safeguards (International Association for Water 

Law, 1976, Recommendation 29; Cano, 1977, par. 55). 

This moral concern encompasses our duties towards future 

generations and the stance of the mass-consumption society as regards said duties. For instance, the act of irreversibly removing water from the hydrological cycle to use it 

for secondary oil recovery in oilfields can pose a problem 

of this kind.

Each sector of the population that benefits from a 

given use of water (even from a single source) must pay for 

it when multiple uses are involved (International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 37; Cano, 

1967). But in every particular use of a water source there is 

also the built-in benefit for the population at large, and the 

latter must pay for it through general taxes. It is necessary 

to clearly draw the line between such payments on account 

of indirect benefits, and the subvention with public funds 

of given sectors of users. Such financial support is not 

necessarily to be banned; furthermore, it will sometimes be 

essential. But, in that case, it must be clearly designated as 

such (Cano, 1979b, art. 67-74).

In the 21st Century it will be fundamental that the use 

of all waters be either in the public domain or under 

governmental control (International Association for Water 

Law, 1976, Recommendations 1, 14, 30; Cano, 1977, par. 

61). This is so because no water use, not even a single use 

by a single individual, fails to have an effect on or to involve the community as a whole — and here I would like to 

paraphrase John Donne who reminded us that when the 

bell tolls for one human being, it tolls for the whole of 

mankind. This control is not opposed to solutions such as 

placing water rights on the market (Chile, Decree-Law 

2603, April 18, 1979) in order to expedite the re-allocation 

of uses or to remove stored waters from public domain in 

order to place them on the market (Cano, 1979b, art. 20, 

340).

Taking into account their mutual interdependence the 

simultaneous, integrated, and joint legal treatment of all 

natural resources, including water resources (Pinchot, 

1947), appeared for the first time in the Code on the 

Renewable Natural Resources and Environment Protection of Colombia (1974, Decree 2811; see also Cano, 

1975-1976, and Venezuela, Organic Law of the Environment, 1976). A similar approach is about to be implemented in other countries and I think that, in the 21st 

Century, this will be a generalized methodology (Cano, 

1979b, art. 340-343). This is one of the multiple means 

that was upheld earlier by Gilbert White (1969) for 

American water management (see also Cano, 1977, par. 

41-42). As for the other natural resources that interact

220 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
with water resources —as I have already mentioned—the 

soil and the land, the atmosphere, flora and fauna, and ore 

deposits are the main ones.

Perfecting of techniques for water pricing, not only as 

a means of distributing charges fairly but also as a tool for 

the encouragement of an efficient use, will also be a rule in 

the 21st Century (International Association for Water 

Law, 1976, Recommendation 35). People must become 

aware of the fact that the use of water is no longer a gift 

from Heaven, which, apart from being free-of-charge, also 

entitles the user to squander it or to debase its quality.

The application of the "polluter pays" principle will 

become generalized in the 21st Century, not only as an 

ethical rule that conditions individual behaviour, but also 

as a political principle that fights imprudent leniency and 

the lukewarm attitudes of governments and individuals 

towards preventive actions that forestall environmental 

pollution (International Association for Water Law, 1976, 

Recommendation 9; Cano, 1977, par. 66, and 1978, p. 

136-146).

It is not possible to be indulgent with or to encourage a 

commercial competition based on careless practices that 

further environmental impairment when said competition 

is backed up by complacent authorities who pretend not to 

see such environmental impairment so long as either production or export trade is promoted.

The international community, either through 

worldwide or regional organizations, will need to remove 

those legal and institutional obstacles that enable some 

countries to offer resistance to a full development of the 

water resources shared with other countries, or when said 

countries attempt to use such water resources for their sole 

advantage, or, even if shared, through unilateral decisions 

(International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendations 48, 50, 52). 2 Examples and experiences of successful shared or coordinated water utilization must be 

widely cited and highlighted in order to define courses of 

action and goals.

Furthermore, a legal and institutional organization 

that can anticipate emergencies and be ready to deal with 

them before they arise, will contribute to more efficient, 

more economical actions when it is necessary to cope with 

actual emergencies (Hayton, 1977; United Nations, 1976; 

Cano, 1979b, art. 101-108).

From the legal point of view, the combined use of surface, underground, and atmospheric waters can be based 

on the fact that water rights grant the right to use a given 

flow or volume of water, but without referring that flow or 

volume to a pre-determined source (Israel, Water Law of 

August 3, 1959). Thus, the authorities in charge of water 

administration will be empowered to decide that said

volume will be taken from a given surface course, or from 

underground aquifers, or else from already-used and 

treated waters, or from all these sources at the same time. 

Said authorities will also be entitled to establish that, in 

order to determine said water volume, rainfall must also be 

computed [International Association for Water Law, 

1976, Recommendation 5; Peru, Water Law of 1969, Art.

2 These considerations are further addressed in the rules that were issued by the International Law Association (1973, 1975, 1977). See also Cano (1977, par. 46-48), United Nations 

(1977, par. 90-93).

For Water Administrators

In many countries and states the administration of the 

diversion and distribution of waters has been entrusted to 

several public agencies or organizations which can differentiate among the waters, according to the way said 

waters are to be used; that is, for municipal services, or irrigation, or power generation, or the like (Cano, 1976b, p. 

156). Generally, the administration of quality control of 

waters is entrusted to those entities that are also in charge 

of health matters. Finally, there are countries where surface, underground, and coastal waters are all administered 

by different agencies. However, there are a few recent exceptions to this uncoordinated scattering of the activities 

of public agencies (Venezuela, Organic Law of 1976, art. 

36; Cano, 1978, p. 287-307). France, for instance, has 

unified both the quantitative and qualitative administrations, with successful results (Law of 16 December 1974).

The 21st Century must witness the unified administration of all water resources and of all water uses and harmful effects, including administration of quality control. 

The organization in charge of this will be resource-oriented 

rather than use-oriented [International Association for 

Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 13 (c), 33; Cano, 

1978, p. 277-285; Cano, 1977, par. 52],

Even more effective would be the concentration by a 

nation of the administration of all water resources and 

other related resources in a single organization or agency, 

as was done in Venezuela's Organic Law of 28 December 

1976 (art. 36). This had also been recommended by the 

Second Conference of the International Association for 

Water Law at Caracas in 1976, which proposed setting up 

an environment-oriented administration (International 

Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendation 2).

Another trend that seems likely to be further stressed 

in the 21st Century is operational administration organized 

by water basins or water regions. This is in keeping with 

planning made on a national basis (International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendations 14, 32, 35; 

Spain, Direcci6n General de Obras Hidraulicas, 1976; 

Cano, 1977, par. 68) coinciding with the strengthening of 

local governments (Uribe Vargas and Godoy, 1974).

It can also be forecast that there will be a considerable 

increase in the participation of water users or their consumer organizations, in both the policy making and the 

direct administration of the final stages of the process of

Legal Implications of the Hydrological Cycle 221
water distribution or related services (International 

Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendations 11, 

15 (c), 36, 43 (a); Cano, 1977, par. 16-18).

REFERENCES CITED

Cano, G. J., 1943, Estudios de derecho de aguas: Mendoza, 

Argentina, V. Abeledo, 280 p.

————1967, National water laws and administrations as elements of water development, in Water for peace: 

Washington, D.C., U.S. Government Printing Office, v. 5, 

p. 3.

————1975-1976, Comprehensive environmental legislation, in 

Mattes, M. A., ed., Environmental policy and law: 

Lausanne, Elsevier Sequoia S. A., v. 1, p. 177.

————1976a, Historical and geographical evolution of water law 

and its role in the management and development of water 

resources: International Conference on Global Water Law 

Systems, Valencia, Spain, 1975, Proceedings: Fort Collins, 

Colorado State University, par. 2.1.

————1976b, Derecho, politica y administracion de aguas: 

Institute Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnica Hi'dricas. IncythInela, Mendoza, Argentina. Also reproduced in United Nations, Proceedings of the Interregional Seminar on Water 

Resources Administration, 1976: New York, Doc. 

DP/UN/INT-70-371, p. 84ff.

————1977, Water law and legislation: How to use them to obtain optimum results from water resources. United Nations 

Doc. E/Conf. 70/A.l. Reprinted in Water development and 

management: New York, Pergamon Press, v. 1, p. 328.

————1978, Derecho, politica y administracion ambientales: 

Buenos Aires, Depalma, 352 p.

————1979a, Recursos naturales y energia: Buenos Aires, Ed.

Feye.

-1979b, Proyecto de cddigo de los recursos naturales de

Corrientes: Corrientes.

Hayton, R. D., 1977, Contingency planning and drought: Doc. 

CONFAGUA/C. 14.27, Mar del Plata.

International Association for Water Law, 1976, Recommendations of the Caracas Conference on Water Law and Administration: Caracas, Annales Juris Aquarum II, 3 v.

International Law Association, 1973, Report on the 55th Conference-New York 1972: London, p. xiv and 22.

____1975, Report on the 56th Conference-New Delhi 

1974: London, p. 47.

————1977, Report on the 57th Conference—Madrid 1976:

London.

Moses, R. J., and Corbridge, J. N., 1967, Legal structures for international supervision of weather modification techniques,

in Water for peace: Washington, D.C., U.S. Government

Printing Office, v. 2, p. 410. 

Pinchot, Gifford, 1947, Breaking new ground: New York, Harcourt Brace, 522 p. 

Radosevich, George, 1976, The international conference on

global water systems in review: Caracas, Annales Juris

Aquarum II, v. 1, p. 5. 

Sewell, W. D., 1976, Planning challenges in the management of

coastal zone water resources: Caracas, Annales Juris

Aquarum II, v. 2, p. 567. 

Spain, Direcci6n General de Obras Hidrdulicas, 1976, Conferencia international sobre las organizaciones para la gesti6n

autonoma del uso del agua, Zaragoza. 

Taubenfeld, H. J., 1967, Weather modification and control:

Some international legal implications: California Law

Review, v. 55, p. 493. 

United Nations, 1970, Integrated river basin development: New

York, 80 p.

————1976, Prevention et attenuation des catastrophes, v. 2: UN 

Doc. CONFAGUA/C 14.27, New York.

————1977, Report of the United Nations water conference, New

York, 1977: UN Doc. E/Conf. 70/29. 

Uribe Vargas, Diego, and Godoy, Horacio (publishers), 1974,

Politica mundial siglo XXI: Fundaci6n para la Nueva

Democracia, Bogota, Colombia. 

U.S. Advisory Committee on Weather Control, 1958, Final

report, 2 volumes: Washington, D.C., U.S. Government

Printing Office, 454 p. 

White, Gilbert, 1969, Strategies of American water management:

Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 155 p.

Guillermo J. Cano

President

International Water Resources Association

Arenales 2040, piso 7-B

1124 Buenos Aires, Argentina

222 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Droughts and Floods

J. P. Bruce

Assistant Deputy Minister 

Environmental Management Service 

Environment Canada

It is a great pleasure to have the opportunity of helping 

to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the U.S. Geological 

Survey. This organization has for years been a world 

leader in geology, mapping, and water science. We all owe 

this agency a great debt. In my comments on droughts and 

floods, I will concentrate on human responses to these 

phenomena and public policies. But fundamental to such 

policies are reliable maps, water measurements, and 

understanding that only comes through well-founded 

research efforts. We almost take these for granted now in 

many parts of the world and this is due in no small measure 

to the scientific leadership of the U.S. Geological Survey.

Those of us who were trained in the natural sciences 

tend to think of floods and droughts as phenomena of 

nature. However, floods are disasters only when man's activities make them so, and droughts fill the headlines only 

where man is using as much water as is normally available, 

or more.

The real problems of droughts and floods arise 

because of man's inadequate adjustments to these natural 

occurrences. If the climatologists are right, and we can expect some decades of greater extremes of weather, we had 

better begin thinking through more clearly the possible 

range of man's adjustments to floods and droughts and put 

in place the policies and program options most appropriate 

to the region or country concerned.

To contribute to the consideration of useful options, I 

will draw largely on our experience in Canada and on some 

in the U.S.A., and comment on both successes and failures 

of public policies, or lack of them, in adjusting to droughts 

and floods.

In terms of precipitation, much of Canada's north is 

desert —a very cold desert, mind you. But population 

pressures are light and the Eskimo and other peoples have, 

over many years, made very intelligent adjustments to the 

very low water supply—10 inches (25.4 cm) per square 

mile. The adjustments make the exceptional year of low 

snowfall or rain not a serious drought problem, unless conditions decimate or drive away migratory caribou or ducks 

or polar bears or other wildlife on which most native 

groups still depend. In cases like this, the people 

themselves sometimes become migratory and follow the

game, or join their coastal brethren and use the resources 

of the sea.

However, in southern Canada, on the Great Plains 

which we share with north-central U.S.A., periods of low 

precipitation are a different matter altogether. World-wide 

and national demand for grain crops has spurred 

agricultural development and an associated infrastructure 

of cities and transportation networks in this region. In its 

driest part, it has a mean annual precipitation of less than 

11 inches (28 cm). Here is where droughts are felt most 

acutely in Canada.

This region, like many other parts of the world, is 

under real pressure to produce for present and future 

residents, and for "export" earnings, many products from 

farm, ground, and factory which require more water than 

currently available. The increasing demand for water in 

some of these regions seriously outstrips the supply, and 

government water policies for these areas are under careful 

scrutiny.

One type of public policy has, so far, been most effective in the southern Canadian Prairies. That is the undertaking by government or private interests of small water 

projects—deeper farm and community wells, 180,000 

dugouts and farm ponds constructed, improved summerfallowing practices, planting of shelterbelts of drought 

resistant trees and so on. The federal government, through 

the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration, undertook or subsidized much of this work after the disastrous 

drought of the 1930s. More recently, provincial governments in Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba have also 

participated actively in this type of program. These kinds 

of activities have been intensified again during and following the "mini-drought" of 1976 and 1977. They can provide 

a valuable cushion at least for short dry periods such as 

this.

A second type of public policy, the construction of 

large water projects, has been notably less successful or has 

been of greatest value for reasons other than those of the 

original plan. For example, the last major water project on 

the Canadian Prairies, the Gardiner Dam and Lake 

Diefenbaker reservoir, was completed in 1967 at a cost of 

130 million dollars. It provides an interesting and very recent case history. Its main initial justification was the 

potential irrigation of 500,000 acres of land. Its actual use

Droughts and Floods 223
now is almost exclusively for power production and urbanmunicipal water supply. Only 31,000 acres are presently 

being irrigated from this reservoir, with interest growing 

only slowly among the farming community. Nevertheless, 

we are extremely lucky to have the reserve capacity of the 

Lake Diefenbaker reservoir now and in the future, but its 

use was certainly not according to plan. Large 

developments of this sort are rare nowadays, since only 

very small portions of the water resource in this region remain uncommitted to various uses.

The third type of public policy affecting the impact of 

droughts relates to responses to the problem of pressures 

for secondary and tertiary developments attracted to or required by increasing agricultural activity through irrigation 

or other means. In the southern Prairie Provinces of 

Canada, an expanding food processing industry, coal and 

hydrocarbon extraction and processing, potash mining and 

processing, and growing municipalities, all need more 

water both directly and indirectly, for electric power production by hydropower or thermal-power plants. Indeed, 

in the 1976-77 drought, the greatest economic impact was 

not in agricultural crop losses, although these were 

substantial, but in the loss of energy production due to low 

river flows. It is estimated that replacement electrical 

energy cost about $100 million. About $20 million extra 

was spent on forest fire fighting.

Pressures are therefore growing for supplementing 

water supplies by diversions from northward flowing river 

systems in Canada to the more arid southern Prairies. This 

poses the classic policy dilemma—do you take the water to 

the people, or try to get the people to move to the water? 

Recently, as a first step to try to come to grips with assessing the need for major water diversions to the southern 

Prairies, the federal-provincial Prairie Provinces Water 

Board has launched a comprehensive water demand study 

which will be completed in 1982 (fig. 1).

An environmental view of the water resource is gaining increasing acceptance and will make future major

Figure 1 Prairie provinces of Canada. The area of frequent 

drought is indicated by the hachured triangle; the area of occasional drought (Dust Bowl of the 1930s) is printed in orange. The 

Saskatchewan-Nelson drainage system is printed in green.

224 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
inter-basin water diversions less acceptable, especially to 

donor regions. The formerly held concept of "wasted" 

water finds no place in this environmental view. Every 

river system, even if largely unused by man, supports an 

ecosystem including fish, wildlife and plants, and forms 

part of a larger ecosystem. There is a legitimate fear, for 

example, that diversion of waters from northward flowing 

streams into the water-short southern provinces will 

change the salinity and thus the ice conditions of the Arctic 

sea, by reducing fresh water discharges. This, in turn, it is 

thought, could trigger a major climatic change.

An example drawn from the U.S.A. may illustrate the 

policy dilemma more starkly. The rapid and intensive 

development of irrigation in the Texas-Oklahoma High 

Plains area in the last two decades is a clear example of the 

rate at which resource development can occur. The 

estimated overdraft of ground water resources of 10,400 

million imperial gallons per day has already made its impact felt. A major study program is underway to find alternative water supplies.

This development illustrates the short-term attractiveness of irrigation even in the face of the lack of a longterm assured supply. With farm and irrigation investments 

in place, and many people committed to this land, 

pressures to find other water sources will be great. 

However, we must ask if the real social and economic costs 

of meeting this future water need had been considered, 

would the irrigation-dependent area have been developed 

so intensively?

A major factor in making some regions more drought 

susceptible is artificially low prices for water and for 

energy to pump it. As the most accessible and easily 

developed water resources were used up, prices had to rise. 

This natural process was masked by the way relatively 

cheap energy in the 1940-1970 period allowed us to overcome the higher basic costs of development and transport. 

Meanwhile, all of this became anchored in an affluent style 

of life, wastage, and a set of expectations which is unequalled in history. To name but one example: Canadians 

have benefited from the low prices and the convenience of 

fresh farm produce in our winter that past water 

developments and pricing policies in the United States have 

made possible. We are every bit as dependent as are U.S. 

citizens on California's Imperial Valley salad bowl. Even in 

season, Canadian-grown produce has difficulty competing—in Canada—because of the subsidies involved in 

these massive water developments to the south and the 

present relatively low costs of transportation and energy.

However, the era of cheap energy for pumping water 

and transporting products is rapidly ending in North 

America, and with it the era of cheap water.

A study of the Oldman River basin in southern 

Alberta completed in 1978 illustrates a somewhat new

perspective on water resources. The Oldman River study 

dealt mainly with irrigation which now consumes 93 percent of the water in that basin and has great potential for 

expansion. Instead of relying on the development of new 

storage facilities alone, considerable attention was paid to 

increasing the efficiency of use of presently available supplies. A $200 million canal and head works improvement 

program by the government of Alberta and similar efforts 

by the federal government on its irrigation projects in the 

basin are directed towards this end.

The need to consider carefully the future availability 

and allocation of water implies the great value of comprehensive water planning on a large basin or regional 

basis. Some very successful comprehensive river basin 

plans have been developed under Canada Water Act programs north of the border, for the Souris River Basin, the 

Qu'Appelle, and the Okanagan within the dry sections of 

western Canada (fig. 2). These have provided valuable 

blueprints for drought-proofing through better control of 

available supplies and balanced allocation and conservation of the resource for a long-term sustained economy. In 

the Okanagan study, for example, the public participation 

program led to acceptance of a low to medium economic 

growth option and made unnecessary a proposed costly 

diversion of water from a more northerly basin.

There are three policy guidelines concerning major 

inter-basin diversions which may be inferred from these examples. Firstly, the environmental implications of major 

diversions, both in the donor region and the region receiving additional waters must be carefully reviewed —in the 

broadest possible ecosystem context. Secondly, development and water policies for a region must stress long-term 

stability based on sustained supplies and productivity, 

rather than on maximum short-term production. Thirdly, 

long-term planning of water and related resources on a 

large river basin or regional basis is essential to wise decisions on water management.

Droughts, in the sense of periods of low water supplies, will continue to affect man's activities, but judicious 

selection of policies, and borrowing from experience of 

others, can improve man's adjustments to these natural 

phenomena.

Floods present quite a different problem in adaptation. The first thing that must be recognized is that floods 

are part of the natural balance and are thus often valuable. 

It is when man and river compete for the use of floodplains 

that disasters occur.

We all know of the benefits to agriculture that have 

been conferred by the annual floods of rivers like the Nile. 

Let me cite a less well known example of the beneficial effects of floods —on the Mackenzie River —the only river in 

Canada with a recorded flow on one occasion greater than 

1 million cubic feet per second.

Droughts and Floods 225
PACIFIC DRAINAGE

B Yukon System 

Fraser System 

S.'_\ Columbia System 

f~J Other major basins 

F~_ Pacific Seaboard 

Total

NELSON SYSTEM 

LAKE WINNIPEG 

REJ^______

Assimbpine

otAPifut

DRAINAGE BASINS

——•————— Ocean Drainage Areas

Internal Drainage Area 

ArtrfECta'ty Diverted Dramage Area 

Glaciers

Lambert Conformal Conic Projection Standard Parallels 496 N. and 77° N. 

THE NATIONAL ATLAS OF CANADA

226 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
i

r ~ — ,

Superior

Huron

Mictugan

Great Bear

Great Slave

Erte

Winnipeg

Ontario

Athabasca

Reindeer

Winmpegos

Nipigon

Manitoba

i *fncluci<ng isia

:. -___

1 1

rr" 34"s6

*4

- '

MAJOR LAKES

TOTAL AB£A*

isquarem

31.700 .

?3,000

22.300

9910

7.340

s.

nan

AREA* 

IN CANADA

«»)

ti.too

13,900

JZ100

10500

•3.960

9.390

3,880

3.100

2570

2.100

1,870

1.790

MAJOR DIVERSIONS '

AREA IN SO M!

j Nechako

i Lak« St Joseph 

j Oqoki

J Long Lake

Megiscano (Gouin)

Lac Casse (Pipmuacan)

5.400

4,750 

5.S60

I.6SO

263

153

HUDSON BAY DRAINAGE

v

»v IB Neiso

AREA

CANADA

nSyslom 360.OOD

IN bQ Ml

USA

57.300

B

churctiiil 108 600 

Iheion System 89 , 1 00

i j " ! Other major basins ^t349Q

\^ I" j Hudson Bay snd 399210

—

f

Si Lawrence System

i Olfie* major baitm 

Atlantic Seaboard 

Total

120290

204710

586 wo

0 100 '200 SCO MILES

M——,——————

0 100 200 300 KILOMETERS

The Mackenzie drains nearly 700,000 square miles and 

has a number of major tributaries, most importantly the 

Peace, the Slave, the Athabasca, and the Liard (fig. 3).

The lower Mackenzie Valley sustains a population of 

7,000 Indians, Inuit and whites who, even at 68° North, 

grow some of their own vegetables, cut trees for fuel and 

construction, and fish and hunt in the remarkably productive Mackenzie Delta. The way of life is delicately balanced 

with the natural cycles. The major life-renewing event of 

the year is the spring breakup and flood.

In the lower Mackenzie, breakup proceeds at a faster 

rate than in the surrounding countryside, due to silt-laden 

waters flooding over frozen surfaces which darken in color 

and absorb more insolation, hastening the melt. The 

physical action of spring floodwaters in lifting up, breaking and moving to seaward the winter accumulation of ice 

is instrumental in causing a rapid increase in local air 

temperatures. This meso-climatic effect advances the start 

of the spring growing season in the Mackenzie Valley and 

Delta, in relation to the surrounding area, providing those 

extra degree days needed for growing essential plants.

The dynamic interaction of flooding and sedimentation shapes the surface of floodplains and deltas and is 

reflected in the distribution of successional plant communities. The existing species and patterns of vegetation 

are dependent upon the deposition of sediments resulting 

from the spring flood. In turn, the migratory waterfowl 

and other wildlife depend on the equisetum and other 

protein-rich species which grow because of the spring 

flood.

The primary cause of early breakup of the lower 

Mackenzie River and the major source of sediments is the 

Liard River tributary. Some initial planning has been 

undertaken for hydro-electric development on the Liard 

River —to store spring flood waters for power generation.

Some have claimed flood control benefits for the 

lower Mackenzie from such a project. And it is true that 

reducing and delaying the spring flood would prevent 

damage to wharves, some communities, and perhaps the 

oil and gas drilling rigs that now dot the region. But this 

would be at the expense of a way of life built on the 

beneficial microclimatic, sedimentation, and floodwater 

effects created by the spring floods.

Recognizing both the beneficial effects of spring 

floods in many river valleys of the country and also 

recognizing that floods become disasters only when man 

competes for the floodplain, the Canadian government 

adopted in 1975 a new Flood Damage Reduction program. 

Note —not a flood reduction program, but a damage 

reduction program.

Figure 2 Location of studies of the Souris, Qu'Appelle, and 

Okanagan River basins.

Droughts and Floods 227
Figure 3 The Mackenzie River basin.

The strategy is to first get ahead of the problem of 

ever-increasing development in floodplains and everincreasing liability for damages by individuals and governments. To this end, the cornerstone of the Flood Damage 

Reduction program is a series of federal-provincial 

agreements to map and delineate the floodplains of all 

significant communities and their suburbs (fig. 4). On the 

basis of these maps, the two senior governments, federal 

and provincial, jointly and formally "designate" the 

floodplains. Once designated, the federal government will 

not build and will not provide loans or mortgage funds for 

new buildings which are not adequately floodproofed. Nor 

will they provide any disaster assistance to those 

developers who have proceeded to construct in the 

floodplain after the designation has taken place. The provinces on their part also do not build or support building in 

the designated area. They also zone or ask their 

municipalities to zone the floodplains for use for nonflood susceptible activities—such as parks and natural 

areas. In these ways we are preventing future encroachment on the floodplains.

The 100-year flood was adopted as a national standard 

for this program but provinces are allowed to adopt a more 

restrictive criterion if they wish. A two-zone policy is also

allowed for when necessary—a central zone where no encroachment will be allowed and a broader area where 

flood-proofed buildings are permitted.

The Flood Damage Reduction agreements with the 

provinces also recognize the need to take action where 

there are existing flood vulnerable areas. In these cases, the 

governments agree to investigate all options to find the 

most cost-effective damage reduction solution which can 

include letting some flooding occur. In some areas this has 

involved structural solutions such as building dykes or 

floodways, and in others, flood-proofing and (or) removal 

of buildings to another site.

On other occasions, when describing this program, I 

have been told "that may be fine for Canada which has a 

small population and lots of land, but it would never work 

in my country." I guess that there is some truth in this—but 

I would point out that this policy is followed in the regions 

of metropolitan Toronto and Montreal where 50 x 100 

feet house building lots range in price from $20,000 to 

$100,000 and population density is as high as 550 persons

LEGENDE

Normal Water Surface 

Surface normals de I'eau

1:20 Year Inundation 

1:20 Armee d'inondation

1:1OO Year Inundation 

1:100 Annee d'inondation

1973 Flood Level .............

Niveau d'inondation 1973

Centeriine Stream Channel...............

Ligne mediane du lit de la riviere

Miles from Reversing Falls 

Milles des chutes reversing

Miles from Mouth of Tributary 

Milles de I'embouchure du tributaire

—X—«

DIRECTION GENERALE DES EAUX INTERIEURES

MINISTERE DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT

NOVA SCOTIA HALIFAX NOUVELLE ECOSSE

APRIL/AVRIL 1974

WATER RESOURCES BRANCH. NEW BRUNSWICK 

DEPARTMENT OF FISHERIES AND ENVIRONMENT. FR6DEFHCTON. N B

DIRECTION DES RESSOURCES EN EAU.

MINISTERE DES PECHERIES ET DE L'ENVIRDNNEMENT OU

NOUVEAU-BRUNSWICK. FREDERICTON. N.B

KEY MAP LIEU DE LA CARTE

228 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
per acre. In these cities, the value of recreational parks 

along the river and lake fronts, set aside by floodplain zoning, is just beginning to be realized. In short, it seems to me 

that there are rather few parts of the world where some 

adaptation of these policies would not be valuable.

The thread that runs through my remarks today will 

now be obvious to all of you. In the recent past we tried to 

tame natural phenomena. In hindsight, we can recognize 

that over-exploitation of a limited water resource only 

leads to drought disasters or possible environmental

disasters associated with major inter-basin water diversions. We know that flood damages simply increase in 

magnitude in spite of flood control works if some restraint 

is not exercised on man's use of floodplains.

So we still face the problems of how best to reduce the 

human suffering and economic disasters that result from 

floods and droughts. The examples I have discussed suggest that, by and large, programs based on the idea of 

"taming" nature have usually failed. Development of intensive agriculture in water-short areas eventually results in

Canada 

Inland

FLOOD HAZARD MAP

FREDERICTON AREA. NEW BRUNSWICK

CARTE DU RISQUE D'lNONDATION

REGION DE FREDERICTON. NOUVEAU-BRUNSWICK

PRODUCED 6V THE INLAND WATERS DIRECTORATE 

PRINTED BY THE SURVEYS AND MAPPING BRANCH 

DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY. MINES AND RESOURCES OTTAWA 1975 2 MILES

I I 

1 2

CONTOURS

5 foot interval below elevation 100 feet 

25 foot interval above elevation 100 feet 

Elevations in Feet above Mean Sea Level

North American Datum 1927 

Transverse Mercator Projection

1

3 KILOMETERS

Figure 4 Example of a flood-plain map.

Droughts and Floods 229
devastating drought damages. Upstream flood control 

dams have often given a sense of false security to 

downstream communities, which have then been seriously 

damaged in floods exceeding the storage capacities of 

upstream reservoirs.

On the other hand, where agricultural and other water 

uses are in reasonable balance with long-term supplies, 

local water and soil conservation practices can buffer 

drought effects —at least for short droughts. Prevention 

and removal of flood hazards from the floodplain reduce 

flood damage and provide for recreational breathing space 

in cities and suburbs.

There is a clear lesson here. We must turn away from 

policies which put man against nature —which are based on 

overcoming the force of natural phenomena like droughts 

and floods. Rather, we must move consciously to choose 

those policies and programs based on man's harmonious 

adaptation to nature.

J. P. Bruce

Assistant Deputy Minister 

Atmospheric Environment 

Environment Canada 

Ottawa, Canada K1A OH3

230 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Panel Discussion

Joseph Cragwall (USGS): Thank you 

very much, Mr. Bruce, for that very 

enlightening overview of Canadian policy 

and programs that gives emphasis to living 

and adapting to nature. I take this opportunity, as part of the chairmanship this 

afternoon, to thank these three speakers 

for their very excellent presentations.

Philip Cohen (USGS): It is indeed a 

pleasure to participate in the program. I 

would like to introduce an additional 

member of our panel: He is Dr. Dean 

Freeman Peterson. Dr. Peterson is a prominent educator who spent a long and 

illustrious career at Colorado State 

University and Utah State University. He 

retired in 1976 and joined the United 

States Agency for International Development. At the present time he is with USAID 

as chief of the Office of Agriculture. Dr. 

Peterson is sitting immediately to the right 

of Joe Cragwall. I think we were indeed 

fortunate with respect to the three 

speakers whom we heard this afternoon. 

Among the three of them, in my view at 

least, they were able to discuss virtually all 

ramifications of man and his interaction 

with the hydrologic cycle. Dr. Alejandrino 

focused in large part on the institutional 

relations as manifested by the situation 

in the Philippines; institutional relations 

between man and the hydrologic cycle. 

Dr. Cano gave us a detailed overview 

of the legal interactions between man 

and the hydrologic cycle. Mr. Bruce 

talked about some of the structural and 

non-structural interactions between man 

and the hydrologic cycle, especially with 

regard to hydrologic extremes. It was also 

interesting to note that, as is not often the 

case, there was no major emphasis during 

the presentations on the scientific problems associated with managing water resources of the world. This, I am sure, is 

not related to the fact that scientific problems do not exist. They do exist and will 

continue to exist and require solutions. 

However, in large part our emphasis reflects the social perspectives of water, the 

emergence of water as a scarce commodity, one which man has chosen to handle in 

a way which is almost unique with respect 

to the mineral resources of the world, and 

that, by and large, developing nations and 

developed nations have chosen to manage

water as a commodity owned by the 

general public and managed for the good 

of the general public. The law of supply 

and demand generally is not applied. By 

that I mean, water is not treated as a free 

market commodity, and yet economic 

constraints and economic opportunities 

must be brought to bear in terms of 

managing our water resources. I think the 

presentations that we heard were provocative. They lend themselves to indepth analysis, and I hope that you will 

inquire of our speakers and comment on 

any of the areas that are of interest to you. 

Dean Peterson (USAID): It is a great 

pleasure to participate in the Centennial 

of the Geological Survey. It is almost half 

of a centennial since I had one of my first 

jobs as a junior engineer for the USGS 

back in 1937, so it is like home to be here. 

It is always a great pleasure to see old 

friends. Jim Bruce I have known for a 

number of years; I have known and admired Dr. Cano's work for more than a 

decade. I have followed with interest the 

water resources development programs in 

the Philippines. It seems to me that the 

Philippines has done a very sophisticated 

job in developing their water resources 

policy based on the idea of ownership by 

the public or ownership by the States. In 

some of the United States' Western States 

we assert that the water is owned by the 

public; in others, it is dedicated to the 

public and held by the State as trustee for 

its use. The difference between State 

ownership and trusteeship for the public is 

something that appears to be very significant to me. Perhaps there are legal connotations about which Dr. Cano will comment. I was interested, too, in the apparent high effectiveness of the "Water 

Resources Council," or the comparable 

overview body in the Philippine situation. 

They seem to have done a better job of 

coordinating there than we have with our 

own Water Resources Council, which is 

the coordinative mechanism here in the 

United States. I am not sure why that is. 

There are probably several reasons: (1) the 

Philippines has a stronger federal system, 

perhaps, with less responsibility on the 

provinces in contrast to the States, and (2) 

in the United States the Geological Survey 

and the Bureau of Reclamation were well

established before the WRC was started; 

this may have placed the WRC at a disadvantage. The maturity in the Philippines 

of approaching such things as nonstructural measures, conservation of 

watersheds and so on, is very commendable. The role of financing, the two 

threads of financing, by making available 

credit and private financing so that things 

happen in water resources is a very good 

development tool which we in USAID like 

very much to use. In considering financing, there is always the question of what is 

the social benefit, what kind of subsidy is 

desirable for society. We try to approach 

the question through the benefit-cost ratio 

by including some tangible allowances for 

some of the real social costs. I would be 

interested in knowing whether there is a 

standard procedure for determining 

benefit-cost ratios in the Philippines comparable to the "Principles and Standards" 

of the United States. Another thing I 

would be interested in knowing is about 

water quality and how water quality is integrated into planning and policy in the 

Philippines. Again in the United States we 

have not done very well in getting water 

quality integrated into overall water 

policy. For example, water-quality investments are not subject to our Principles 

and Standards for Evaluation of Water 

Resources, as are irrigation, navigation, 

and so on. I was very much interested, 

too, in the comments about the use of 

cooperatives in developing irrigation projects. This is also an area of interest to my 

agency, USAID, because we find that in 

many developing countries there is a social 

or an institutional vacuum between the 

engineers and hydrologists who design the 

dam and the farmer who is trying to make 

a living. There just do not seem to be institutions to get the agricultural information to him and the water from the reservoir down where he needs it. I think the 

Philippines, as I understand it, has done 

quite well in recognizing and filling this institutional vacuum.

Dr. Cano's talk, I thought, was 

fascinating —a very comprehensive 

analysis and a very clear-cut one. Looking 

to the 21st Century, I certainly agree with 

the nine points that he made regarding the 

issues which the lawyers will have to deal

Panel Discussion 231
with, and again the issues which those 

who administer water programs would 

need to worry about in that century. It 

was very incisive to divide the presentation 

between the legal universe and the administrative universe. We who have 

worked in the water field in the United 

States know that the laws and the administration do not always pull together 

as teams.

Mr. Bruce's talk on floods and 

droughts, I thought, was very appropriate 

and raised some very interesting points. I 

am still not sure that developing countries 

in the tropical areas, the drought-prone 

areas that are monsoon-fed like western 

India, and the Sahara region in Africa, 

face quite the same problems, however. In 

at least the case of southern Asia, the people are in place on the drought-prone 

lands, and they must use the water 

resources that they can capture in the 

good years and somehow bridge the gaps 

during the drought years. They cannot afford not to use those good-year resources 

as efficiently as they possibly can, 

primarily for food production because the 

resource situation is so tight. Your approach to flood controls, I thought, was a 

fascinating one. I think it is one of the 

more mature ideas that I have heard. You 

did not mention anything about flood insurance. In the United States, you will 

recall, we got into mandatory flood insurance, as one of the means for flood 

damage reduction. I do not know if this is 

a part of your mix or whether your idea of 

flood-proofing is a substitute for it. One 

other point I would like to raise is the 

question of mining ground water. Jim 

Bruce referred to the high plains of Texas, 

and maybe if we had had the right kinds 

of policies and the right kinds of legal 

tools, we would not have started to mine 

this water. I guess I can hypothesize an 

adversary view to that whether I believe it 

or not. In mining coal or oil we create 

demands, the resources disappear, and 

somehow we go ahead; so I wonder what 

parameters one should try to use; what 

criteria society ought to try to use in 

resolving ground-water mining policies. 

Another issue that I did not hear much 

discussion on was the use of ground water 

as a drought relief measure, and what 

kinds of administrative and legal tools 

could be developed so that the groundwater supply is not overexploited in the 

good years to the point where it is not 

available for use as drought relief in the

bad years. I did not study the last drought 

and how we managed it in detail, but 

drawing down ground water was a very 

helpful tool in helping to get through the 

drought.

Philip Cohen: I would now ask that 

each of the speakers respond in kind to 

Dean's comments and questions and ask 

the members of the audience to please join 

in and participate.

Angel Alejandrino (The Philippines):

Dr. Peterson had, I think, two questions 

regarding my presentation. I would 

paraphrase one as: What is the extent of 

the subsidy that is being given to the rural 

water-supply sector and the irrigation sector? Actually, I had them in my paper but 

because of time constraints I did not mention them, since maybe I considered them 

too detailed. Now since it has been asked I 

can say that we have no uniform policy on 

the extent of subsidy for rural water supply. It varies from 10 per cent to full subsidy depending upon the agency that is implementing the project. If you will 

remember, I mentioned that we have 

many agencies implementing projects. 

The plan, however, is to adopt a maximum of 90 percent as a grant for what we

call the first level of rural water supply 

service. This is a point source such as a 

well or a spring in which the users go to 

the source to fetch their water. This is in 

line with the basic-needs commitment of 

the government. The remaining 10 percent 

is an equity contribution of the local water 

well association to indicate its commitment for the project. Of course, operation 

and maintenance would be mainly 

shouldered by the Rural Water Works 

Association.

For the second level of service for 

rural water supply, we have a distribution 

system having a number of faucets, each 

servicing about 4 to 6 houses. We also envision requiring a 10 percent local equity. 

The remaining 90 percent is provided as a 

loan, with an annual interest of not more 

than 4 percent, repayable in 15 to 20 

years. The tariff structure of the various 

consumers is designed to recover all these 

costs. Of course, the 4 percent interest is 

highly subsidized.

For some irrigation projects, 10 percent is provided as a grant. It seems that 

this is a trend. Seventy percent is a loan 

that is repaid with an annual interest of 6 

percent. The repayment period varies 

from 10 to 25 years. That is the extent of

subsidy. Now the irrigation associations 

are encouraged to furnish the right of 

way, labor and materials that they can 

supply. As an incentive, the reduction in 

cost due to the items furnished by the 

association is applied to that part of the 

total cost to be repaid with interest at 6 

percent per annum. I hope that answers 

your questions.

With regard to water quality policy, 

this is only recent. It is easy enough to impose water quality standards for industries 

or even for the large state projects. For 

that matter we also have environmental 

assessments on parts of our big water 

resources projects. As far as pollution is 

concerned, domestic pollution is the 

greatest problem. In the rural areas, for 

instance, disposal of wastes and waste 

water is very hard to control. In the first 

place, we cannot give them clean water so 

it is very difficult to control their dirty 

water.

George Davis (USGS): I have a question for Dr. Alejandrino. You stated that 

in the Philippines, the water is owned by 

the State. Dean Peterson commented that 

in several of our Western States there is a 

similar doctrine of ownership by the people in the State. It seems to me what really 

counts is the right to use the water. Now 

in the Philippines, by using water, does 

the water user then establish property 

rights for that use?

Angel Alejandrino: We use the appropriation doctrine. In other words, 

anybody that wants to use water has to 

apply to the State for the use of that 

water, and this is controlled by the State.

George Davis: So then it becomes a 

property right, does it not?

Angel Alejandrino: No, we have 

moved away from what we call water 

right. In other words, the State reserves 

the right to withdraw the permit to use 

water for greater beneficial use; of course, 

with proper compensation, like providing 

substitute water. Take the case where individual irrigators have drawn water individually from, for example, a stream. If 

it can be shown that the government's 

larger project will result in greater 

beneficial use, the government can provide substitute water for these individual 

irrigators and withdraw the individual 

permits.

George Davis: But with compensation?

Angel Alejandrino: Yes, with compensation.

232 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Philip Cohen: Dr. Cano, would you 

care to respond to Dr. Peterson's comments?

Guillermo Cano (International Water 

Resources Association): Well, he says he 

agrees with me; I have no comments. But 

I would like to comment on the subject of 

property. This problem can be solved in 

different ways. One way is used in the 

eastern United States with the Riparian 

Rights System. Here the right to use water 

is a natural right of the landowner. In 

some cases this pertains only to riparians, 

and then there is not public ownership of 

the water. A second way is the "concession system" under which the users receive 

a concession by grant, i.e., for agriculture, as in my country. There the water 

rights granted are attached to the land and 

the men who won these water rights cannot sell the land separate from the water 

rights. I think this system worked well 

when dealing with long-term agricultural 

enterprise, for instance, growing 

vineyards or fruit orchards or that kind of 

agriculture which needs heavy long-term 

investments, not agriculture on a yearlong basis. This system worked well to 

protect the individual's initiative to promote this kind of agriculture. I said during 

my lecture that the need to reassign water 

rights has now appeared. For instance, the 

immigration of rural population to cities 

has required the people to use water rights 

for municipal supply that were originally 

assigned for irrigation (agricultural use). 

The use of the water is thus changed. I 

mentioned that the government of Chile 

passed a law just a few months ago (April 

1979). They have had the system where 

the water right is tied with the land ownership; now they have changed the law to 

allow the water rights to be put on the 

market. In the free market the economic 

system will allow the use to be changed. 

This means that the landowner who has 

water rights for irrigation can sell his 

rights to somebody who wishes to use 

them, for example, for industry, or to 

somebody wishing to use the land for 

human habitation. I do not know what 

the outcome of the Chilean solution, 

which is a very new one, will be. I cannot 

speak about the results because the law 

dates only from last April, but I do think 

it is one way to find a solution to the need 

to reassign the uses of the water. I would 

also like to comment that this is the first 

time in my life, as a lawyer, that other 

people say that they agree with me!

Philip Cohen: Thank you very much. 

. . . Mr. Bruce.

James Bruce (Canada): Yes, Dean 

Peterson raised three points that I would 

like to address. One is the question of 

whether drought-proofing methods would 

work in economically developing parts of 

the world. I really do not have enough experience in such areas to answer that question, but I would say one thing and that is 

that if major development, depending on 

a water resource, is allowed to take place 

in an area and the water supply required 

exceeds the average annual water supply 

in that region, then I think you are going 

to be in deep trouble at some stage. If use 

does not exceed the average annual supply 

including recharge to ground water, you 

can get through the dry periods by the 

kind of legal and administrative arrangements that Dean was suggesting, by 

allowing a greater ground-water withdrawal in the dry periods to cover up the 

water shortage. That is what we have been 

doing in many parts of Canada. If we 

allow developments to take place which 

use more than the average annual water 

supply, I think we are eventually in for a 

serious drought problem in that location.

We talk about mining ground water. 

It seems to me there is a great difference 

between mining gold or other metals and 

mining ground water. In mining gold, at 

least what happens in my country is when 

they run out of gold, the guys who are doing the mining pack up and leave. But 

when you have a water development or an 

agricultural development or a municipal 

development that takes place based on 

mining of ground water, those people 

want to stay and they want to get their 

water from somewhere else when their 

ground water runs out. This is the big difference and this is why I think that it is not 

wise to build an economy based on mined 

ground water.

Dean also asked about whether 

Canada used flood insurance as part of 

the mix in dealing with floods, and the 

answer is no. We have considered flood 

insurance as a possibility, and looked very 

carefully at the experience of the United 

States. We finally decided that flood insurance could not work without government subsidy, and we thought also that 

flood insurance provided very little incentive for people in the flood plain to floodproof their own homes or to get out of the 

flood plain. In fact it provides a disincentive. There's a benefit to be gained with 

flood insurance by just staying in the 

flood plain; a subsidized benefit. So that 

in fact, we reviewed the experience in the 

United States with flood insurance and 

consciously decided not to include it in 

our mix of policies.

Philip Cohen: Are there any further 

questions or comments from the audience?

Lauro Sodre-Neto (Brazil): I would 

like to know if you have some information on salinization of large reservoirs. We 

have this problem in Brazil.

Philip Cohen: Is there anyone on the 

panel who would like to respond? The 

question concerns salinization of surface 

water reservoirs. Any experience with increased salinity in surface water reservoirs?

James Bruce: Well, certainly we have 

had similar experiences, some reservoirs 

showing increased salinity over the years, 

and of course, also increased sedimentation. One of the reasons why I was not advocating large reservoirs was partly 

because of that experience. On the other 

hand, if you have a fairly large annual 

flow through the reservoir, the problem 

does not appear to be a very severe one, 

but if you do not have a large flow 

through the reservoir it certainly can result 

in evaporation losses concentrating the 

salts in the reservoir. But we have very 

much less experience in this than the 

United States, and I would suspect that 

Joe Cragwall or Dean Peterson could explain more fully.

Joseph Cragwall: What troubles me 

is the increasing salinity in the reservoir. 

One can rationalize that that can be a 

problem in our Western States, but those 

reservoirs were authorized and built to 

supply irrigation water which leaches the 

soil, which increases the salinity in the 

river systems, and that is where our problem has been, not in the reservoirs.

S. Limaye (India): I have a question 

regarding the enactment of ground-water 

law. In some of the developing nations at 

present there is no ground-water law. At 

present these developing nations really do 

not have very much knowledge about the 

ground-water law patterns, geology, etc. 

Without ground-water law even a poor 

farmer with a small plot of land, say two 

acres, will dig a well to irrigate even this 

small plot. Would you recommend that 

these countries enact a ground-water law?

Panel Discussion 233
Guillermo Cano: The privateproperty aspect of ground water does not 

mean that the owner is free to do what he 

wants. I will use an example, concerning 

land use. If you buy a piece of land in a 

city and you wish to build a building, you 

need a permit. This is a land use of private 

property and you need a permit and also 

you must follow some regulations 

concerning the quality of the building. 

The same legal solution applies to the use 

of private underground water. The power 

of government policy is enough to put 

conditions on the use of private property. 

In the same way, you have a speed limit 

for your car on the highway; it is the same 

kind of restriction. It is not necessary to 

have public ownership of the underground water to have administrative 

conditions or restrictions. Even if the 

government does not wish to declare the 

underground water for public ownership, 

it has the means to control its use through 

the exercise of police power by limiting 

the capacity of pumps, or limiting the 

time of use. There are many countries that 

do that, in indirect ways. For instance, using a system of differential fares for the 

electricity used: when the consumption exceeds a certain amount, the fare can be 

raised. There are many ways, i.e., the protection of the wells through prohibition of 

other wells within a certain distance. In 

any case, the permit even for the landowner to build a well or drill, can be subjected to technical conditions or can be 

subjected to the duty of reporting to the 

administration about the geological structure, and also about the level of the water 

table and many other things. For me, the 

ideal is to achieve public ownership of the 

underground water, and to use a system 

of granting concessions to use those 

waters. Some new legislation does that, 

excluding from public control only the 

wells dug solely for domestic use. When 

they say "domestic use," they mean only 

for food or house needs, not for any 

agricultural production. Under this new 

legislation that kind of use of the aquifer 

does not need a permit, but in the other 

cases a permit is mandatory.

Vincent E. McKelvey (USGS): About 

twenty years ago, in trying to figure out 

the cost of the total water used in the 

United States, I hit upon a method for 

figuring out the cost of water used on 

rain-fed cropland as well as for 

silviculture. Rain water is bought and sold 

except that it is bought and sold with the

land and with the product. I will not explain that any further. But a very interesting thing came out of that study, and 

that is the enormous range in the price of 

water. Let us say that, when water is sold 

as a commodity, the price very closely 

reflects the actual cost of bringing the 

water to that point for its use. At the time 

of the study, about 1959, the cost of water 

for domestic use in the United States 

averaged about $98 an acre-foot. The cost 

of water for industrial use was about $8 or 

$8.50 an acre-foot. For irrigation, it was 

averaging about $3, as I recall; and for 

rain-fed cropland, I estimated it was 

worth an average of about $1 an acrefoot, and about 25 cents an acre-foot in 

silviculture. So there was an enormous 

range in the market value of the raw commodity. All of the value-adding steps 

taken to prepare water for use represent 

costs involved and reflect the user's willingness to pay for them. At any rate, 

when I finished that tabulation, the whole 

history of Owens Valley [Calif.] immediately became clear to me. In a market 

economy such as we have in the United 

States it is possible for a particular group 

of users who are able to pay a lot more for 

water than another group of users to 

readily acquire the water rights and make 

a decision about water use that may have 

a tremendous effect on a whole range of 

activities in a given region as, indeed, the 

people of Los Angeles had with respect to 

water use in much of California. I'd just 

like to ask — perhaps this is a question for 

Ambassador Cano —the extent to which 

regional planning the world over is taking 

into account problems of water use in the 

development of major water-using projects. Planning for the use of water over a 

major region would seem to involve people with omniscience that it's hard to imagine that they might always have, but I'm 

curious about the extent to which over the 

world there are patterns developing, either 

by legislation or practice, related to planning water use region-wide.

Guillermo Cano: To reply I will use 

an example. A good example is the system 

adopted by the French ten years ago, 

depending upon what we call regional 

planning. In the matter of water, I think 

regional planning means river basin planning or planning for a group of river 

basins. As you may know, the French 

government divided the country into eight 

basin regions, principally basins of the 

main rivers. For each basin, they created

two organizations. One is a financial 

agency and the other is a technical agency. 

Both have direct participation by the local 

people involved. When I say local people, 

I refer to representatives of municipalities 

and representatives of Chambers of Commerce, and also the national government. 

The French pay taxes for use of water, the 

proceeds being used only for water works. 

They tax not only the consumptive uses 

but also the use of water to produce 

hydroelectricity, which is taxed by 

volume. This taxation has nothing to do 

with the cost of storage or diversion of the 

water. This means that this tax is not an 

element of the cost of use or diversion, or 

storage: it represents the value of the 

water. Separately they also tax the use of 

water courses for return flows of wastewater. This is a different taxation. They 

use the pollution taxation to induce the 

people to treat the water before returning 

it. The proceeds of both these taxes are 

administered by the financial agency of 

each basin. The money collected is apportioned through a budget to 3- or 4-year 

programs. They use the money in different ways. The minor part is for direct 

construction by the basin agency of treatment works. Another part is used to give 

loans at low interest. They give loans not 

only to municipalities but also to private 

industries. The third part is used to give 

nonreimbursable subsidies. They manage 

this financial system mainly through 

agreements with sectors of industry. Take 

for example the pulp industry; they make 

an agreement with the entire pulp industry 

in France thereby avoiding unfair competition among the members of that industry. In that way, they can speak of 

regional planning on the different uses of 

the water. They do cost analyses of the 

total expenditures to apportion them 

among the different categories of uses. I 

think that the French experience has been 

successful. They, in eight years, have 

abated pollution by 50 percent, and they 

are going ahead with that plan. The other 

tool they use is tax exemption. This means 

that the industry, or the municipality 

which does its own treatment, is exempted 

from taxes. Thus they are promoting 

private initiative through tax exemption. 

Delia Laura (USGS): I would like to 

make a comment on a statement that Dr. 

Cano made concerning water rights; not 

just ground-water rights (which is the context in which it was phrased in Dr. 

Limaye's question) but also surface-water

234 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
rights. Dr. Cano's recommendation is that 

if a ground-water right system or groundwater law has not been instituted, a state 

or a nation would be wise to consider 

possibly taking all waters and making 

them the property of the state or nation 

and then having a system of permits for 

distribution. I think that this is the conclusion that all of us must logically reach. 

However, I think one of the things we 

must keep in mind is the social, political, 

and economic system in which this kind of 

law will operate.

I would like to point out a problem, 

for which I have no simple solution: it is 

the problem of "baksheesh." That is, what 

is actually paid to get the right? We know 

that in some places we may set the price of 

a permit as low as 25 cents, but it may cost 

a person two, three, or four hundred 

dollars in payments, crossing the right 

palm, to get that 25-cent right. We pay a 

sophisticated "baksheesh" in our country. 

For instance, we pay "baksheesh" to the 

system. Not to bribe an individual, 

although that may happen too, but to get 

ourselves a very good lawyer. It is a very 

different way of paying "baksheesh," so 

to speak. In the developing countries, as 

well as in the United States, where we do 

not have sufficient ground-water and 

surface-water law, I think whenever we 

talk about a system of permits, we must 

be aware of the additional ramifications 

that the permit itself may introduce. It is 

similar to "the rich get richer" —"the rich 

get the water right."

I wanted to point this out as a problem to be aware of in initiating these 

systems. I do not think there is a simple 

solution. A lot may be achieved, however, 

by carefully planning the organization, 

administration, and enforcement of the 

system so as to minimize the inequities.

Philip Cohen: I will try to summarize 

if I may. I think the main thrust of Delia's 

point was, although she does not find 

fault with the concept of government 

developing a permitting system for 

developing and managing surface and 

ground waters, that, depending upon the 

social and economic environment, such a 

system may impose undue hardships in 

some cultures. She pointed out, for example, that the cost of applying for a permit 

and going through the process may 

become inordinately expensive, whereas 

in other areas it may be fairly simple. She 

also indicated that in the United States 

where there are matters to be litigated,

there are certain costs associated with who 

can hire the best attorney. She agrees with 

the general concept but she is concerned 

about the methods of implementation depending upon the social, political, and 

economic environment.

Guillermo Cano: I do not think the 

cost to apply for a permit needs to be expensive. That depends on the requirements asked of the applicant. But 

how can the government know how much 

water has been used if it does not know 

who uses the water? The United Nations 

had a program in my province in Argentina under which they made a water 

balance study of the aquifer in the region. 

In this region of one million acres of irrigated land, thirty percent of the total 

water used was ground water. They 

discovered that there was a deficit of three 

cubic meters per second between the 

recharge and the use. The level of the 

water was going down. The farmers, 

owners of the wells, objected that every 

year they needed to deepen the well two or 

three meters. I am not proposing a complicated system of hiring lawyers and 

engineers. This can be made simple. I 

think in water-short areas, there is a need 

of government control because if not, 

what would happen is the primacy of a 

Far West law. The man who has the most 

powerful pump is the winner (not the gun, 

the pump). And then somebody must put 

order on that. If you look at the history of 

the development of ground water in many 

countries you will see a first period in 

which the government promoted more use 

of ground water. Then they established a 

system of protected rights for the first 

drillers. That means that a second driller 

cannot harm the availability of water to 

the first in chronological order. This was 

good when there was more water than 

people with a need. But now there are 

more people than water. This system of 

chronological priorities no longer works 

because if the government tried to enforce 

it we would have a revolution; we would 

have a war, a civil war. When time of 

shortage of water comes, somebody must 

put in force the system of rationing. That 

is my answer. I make it very clear that I, in 

my country, am a member of a conservative party, not on the other side.

I would like to address this question 

to Mr. Bruce. I am encouraged by the 

concept that water belongs to all the people. But in both Canada and the United 

States there are many instances where

private interests win out: pollution, acid 

rains, the water table dropping, and there 

are many instances where private corporations right now are holding the upper 

hand as far as control of our water usage 

is concerned. Is it your perception, Mr. 

Bruce, that Canada, through its Federal 

government, has more control over its 

water resources than the United States, 

and secondly, do you feel that both countries should have more Federal control 

over the use of the water than is now exercised through the Federal governments?

James Bruce: I suspect, though it is 

hard to document, that the Federal 

government in the United States has more 

authority and more power in water matters than the Federal government in 

Canada. For one thing our provinces are 

much larger than the U.S. States geographically, and therefore are able to, 

within their boundaries, manage the water 

resources reasonably well, if they have a 

mind to do so. In the Canadian Federal 

government we try to focus on things of a 

transboundary nature. That is, to make 

sure that what a province does, doesn't 

hopelessly louse up what the next province 

or the United States could do, or vice 

versa. The basic responsibility for the 

local management of water resources in 

Canada rests with the provinces, and that 

is the way our constitution is written. I do 

not think that that is necessarily a bad 

thing. I think it is important that the 

Federal governments in both countries 

establish standards to ensure that one 

jurisdiction does not hurt another 

jurisdiction; for example, establishing national standards relating to pollution control problems so that pollution havens do 

not develop among the States and provinces. In some cases, I think, we have to 

take a very strong hand in management of 

toxic chemicals because, in fact, the only 

way you can reasonably control many of 

the toxic chemicals that get into our water 

systems is through control of the products 

used and either manufactured or imported 

into a country. So, there are a number of 

important roles that the Federal agencies 

have to play. I have a very strong feeling 

that, within those guidelines and within 

those roles, the provinces and the States 

should play an important role, or the important role, in local allocation of water 

and in dealing with the local requirements 

of municipalities and industries. I certainly think that in many cases our record 

is not good in both countries in reducing

Panel Discussion 235
or controlling the pollution from industries. Certainly the acid rain problem is 

going to be a very severe one before we are 

through, and having listened, in a previous talk, to the problem of the volume 

of gases that will have to be dealt with in 

the stacks, I think it is not going to be an 

easy problem to solve. I do not know 

whether that answers your question.

O. Milton Hackett (USGS): I would 

like to suggest to Jim Bruce that probably 

Canada is in a substantially better situation, not because of having more control,

but because of the antecedent conditions, 

which, in this country, by the time the 

problems are recognized by the public, are 

really quite out of hand at some places. 

The measures that have to be taken are 

very unpalatable, and I think you in 

Canada have had some chance to reflect 

on what has happened here and have 

taken advantage of our experience.

James Bruce: I think that is very true. 

Our population pressures have not 

developed as early as yours did and I think 

we have, through good cooperation with

organizations like the U.S. Geological 

Survey, been able to learn from your experiences and tried to take advantage of 

them. I am not sure how wisely we have 

done so, but we have tried.

Philip Cohen: Are there any other 

comments or questions? If not, I would 

like to take this opportunity to thank our 

speakers, our discussant, Dean Peterson, 

our Chairman, Joe Cragwall, and all of 

you for coming and helping us celebrate 

our Centennial and for participating in 

this Symposium.

236 Resources for the Twenty-first Century

Geologic Hazards

Mount St. Helens, Washington. May 1980. 

238 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Earthquake Hazards, and Requirements for 

Their Mitigation in the Andean Region

A. A. Giesecke

Director

Centro Regional de Sismologia para America del Sur, Peru

INTRODUCTION

As requested, I present some comments on the 

challenges, problems and requirements for assessment of 

earthquake hazards in developing countries in general and 

Peru in particular. Although damaging earthquakes occur 

several times each year throughout the Andean region and 

many of them have been catastrophes that killed thousands 

of people, caused great property loss, and delayed social 

and economic development, there has been a surprising 

lack of concern on the part of both the populations and 

governments involved. Public awareness is limited to the 

acknowledgment that a problem exists but in no way is this 

awareness translated into preventive action, despite frequent small and not so small tremors that are continuously 

reminding us that earthquake hazard is an ever-present and 

not an improbable occurrence.

After each major disaster, urgent priority action is 

taken to cope with the emergency, and there is nation-wide 

concern and mobilization to do all that can be done to provide relief for the victims. This is followed by the 

rehabilitation and reconstruction phases. Such relief activity quickly erases from the minds of the authorities, and of 

the people themselves, whatever thoughts they may have 

had as to the causes of the problem and the measures that 

should be given high priority in order to mitigate effects 

another time. Even the sequence of fairly strong aftershocks, which is characteristic of most large earthquakes, 

does little to concentrate attention on the importance of 

earthquake hazard studies. Perception of the danger from 

the earthquake itself and from its secondary effects is high 

in the stricken area immediately after the disaster but this 

is all forgotten not many months later. For instance, people will usually rebuild on the very same site where a recurring avalanche is bound to cause damage in the not too distant future. Indeed, there is no evidence that perception of 

earthquake hazards increases in regions near a devastated 

area—even within the same country.

During the years following a major earthquake, the 

rehabilitation and reconstruction efforts, which are often

carried out with substantial aid from other countries, 

become projects that are generally implemented without 

much thought for the earthquake problems of the future. 

Frequently such reconstruction affords a seldom-found 

opportunity to build highways, new buildings, and public 

facilities, in "forgotten" areas of a country, but much of 

this work is done on the basis of expediency and political 

considerations rather than by taking into account longterm measures to reduce to a minimum an area's vulnerability to earthquakes.

But the situation is improving. Although not enough is 

being done to assess earthquake hazards or to implement 

appropriate programs for hazard reduction, at least most 

countries in the Andean region are becoming increasingly 

involved in research projects to evaluate seismic hazard 

and to reduce risk.

Significant progress has been made in studies of 

historical seismicity, a very important part of earthquake 

analysis. Descriptions of earthquake occurrences and 

shock effects can be found in archives dating back to the 

beginning of the sixteenth century, with some passing 

references to events of the late fifteenth century. Investigators from several countries have published impressive catalogues with such data but additional information is still to be located. It is a slow and painstaking process and the descriptive material must be converted so as to 

approximate contemporary magnitude and intensity 

measures and epicentral locations. Work is also underway 

on the re-analysis of old seismograms, the recalculation of 

parameters, and the compilation of comprehensive seismic 

catalogues.

PROJECT SISAN

Proposed in 1973, the pilot study of Seismicity in the 

Andes, known as SISAN, was approved and funded by the 

Organization of American States. The OAS provided US 

$65,000 to^the Regional Center for Seismology for South 

America (CERESIS), so that I could carry out Project SISAN

Andean Earthquake Hazards 239
in Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru and produce 

preliminary seismo-tectonic and seismic risk maps. It was 

necessary to collect and catalogue data pertinent to the 

seismic history-hypocenters, earthquake magnitudes, and 

observed intensities, as well as any available information 

on active faults, particularly of the Quaternary period, and 

on avalanches, landslides, ground failures, and other 

geological evidence of earthquake activity. With the project nearing completion, more than thirty thousand seismic 

events have now been identified and the resulting data 

processed. Moreover, historical sources from more than 

five centuries have been examined, and relevant information from the year 1471 through 1977 has been compiled. 

Thus, on the basis of both reported damage and geological 

evidence, preliminary maps have already been produced.

Figure 1 shows a hazard map of shock intensity for 

Peru. Available archives and modern records were used to 

identify these earthquakes and to determine corresponding 

intensities according to the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Kornik 

Scale (MSK). The locations plotted on this preliminary 

map are points of maximum intensity and not the epicentral coordinates. The intensities were estimated from 

reports of damage, mainly to similar one-story houses, and 

from geological evidence, in order to represent, as nearly 

as possible, comparable average severity of ground shaking for the location most seriously affected by a given 

earthquake.

The size of the circles on the map indicates MSK intensities according to the scale shown. For intensities VIII or 

greater, the date of the event is placed within the respective 

circle; for intensity VII events, the date is next to the circle; 

and, for events of intensity VI or less, the numbers either 

inside or next to the circles indicate the number of events, 

and these events are not dated.

In Ecuador and southern Colombia the earthquake 

events are associated with volcanic activity; northward the 

record of intraplate events continues to Merida in 

Venezuela. The hypocenters are shallow for this region except for the Bucaramanga area, in which the events occur 

at depths of about 165 km. The largest events shown for 

Peru, intensity IX, correspond to the Quiches earthquake 

of 1946, which had a measurable fault displacement of 

about 3 meters, and the two Huaytapallana (coordinates: 

75.1 W. longitude, 11.9 S. latitude) shocks of 1969 which 

caused a vertical shift of 60 cm first and then of 1.70 m. 

The high earthquake intensities associated with active 

faults in Quiches, Cuzco, Moyobamba, and Huaytapallana are noticeable. The seismicity in Bolivia is relatively low.

Figure 2 is a seismic map of Peru showing known 

events for the period 1900-1976, showing epicenters, 

magnitudes, and depth of foci, based on instrumental data 

recorded since the beginning of the 20th Century. This type 

of map is also available for the other SISAN countries but it

does not portray the earthquake hazard as clearly as do the 

shock intensity maps.

Most SISAN countries also have seismic zoning maps 

similar to that shown for Peru in figure 3. Peru has 

adopted three zones. The formula for the horizontal force 

H includes a Z factor of 1.0 for zone 1, 0.7 for zone 2, and 

0.3 for zone 3. There are relatively few records from 

strong-motion instruments that can be used for design purposes throughout the Andean countries. In the past thirty 

years fewer than 20 accelerograms have been obtained in 

Peru, mostly at one site in Lima. Attenuation curves for 

maximum acceleration were estimated and compared with 

similar curves obtained elsewhere. This appears to show 

that South American shocks excite higher acceleration 

than did shocks in other areas . Taking into account 

the source mechanisms, fault dimensions, and other 

parameters obtained from data for 1900 to 1973, 

seismogenic areas in Peru have been delimited. Thus, 

seismic risk is estimated by the attenuation curves and the 

seismogenic zones that are in part derived from them.

In figure 4, a map made for the Department of Lima, 

Peru, shows maximum accelerations expected with an 80 

percent probability that they will not be exceeded in a 

50-year period. Earthquake maps of this type have been 

produced for many areas throughout the region. Another 

factor that is being taken into account for urban areas is 

soil response. Seismic microzonation, by various methods, 

is progressing at an increasing pace in several large cities.

PROJECT SISRA

A more ambitious project called Seismicity and 

Seismic Risk in the Andean Region (SISRA) will involve all 

the CERESIS countries in South America. With objectives 

somewhat similar to SISAN, Project SISRA was submitted 

for funding early in 1979 to the Office of Foreign Disaster 

Assistance of the Agency for International Development 

of the U.S. State Department. It is our understanding that 

the project will be adequately supported by OFDA/AID. 

SISRA is devoted to seismic risk evaluation. This means 

construction of data banks for seismic, geological and 

geodetic information, and improved hypocentral 

parameters; technical education and training; upgrading of 

existing seismological stations and the installation of new 

ones; and the implementation of a seismic net with satellite 

relay on a continental scale, using the GOES satellite. 

SISRA was scheduled to begin in 1980 and be complete in 

1985.

IMMEDIATE AND LONG-RANGE BENEFITS OF

SISAN

Project SISAN has been a very worthwhile exercise 

because its tangible results are of immediate application. It 

has also been an invaluable experience in bringing out the

240 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
2°S

82° 78°

6°S

10° S

14° S

18° S

EXPLANATION

SCALE OF INTENSITY— DIAMETER

ll

VI VII VIII IX X XI

DEPTH DF FDCUS, IN KILOMETERS 

O 0-70 Q 70-200

INTENSITY 6 MSK, NUMBER OF OCCURRENCES: 2 

INTENSITY 7 MSK, NUMBER DF OCCURRENCES: 9

INTENSITY^SMSK, YEAR OF OCCURRENCE

X-N 1T4T < 

QJS2S ,

0 100 200 KILOMETERS 

I.I I

Figure 1 Preliminary map of earthquakes in Peru, plotted according to points of maximum intensity, from 1471 to 1974. [Intensities 

are estimated on the Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik scale (MSK); dates are given for events of intensity VII or greater; sizes of circles are 

proportionate to intensities. Data source: Project SISAN.]

Andean Earthquake Hazards 241
79° 77°

EDUCATION SECTOR 

GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE OF PERU

SCIENTIFIC DIRECTORATE OF SEISMOLOGY

SEISMIC MAP OF PERU

PERIOD: 1900-1976

BASE: PHYSICAL-POLITICAL MAP COMPILED BY 

INSTITUTE OF MILITARY GEOGRAPHY

18° - 0 100 KILOMETERS

Figure 2 Seismic map of Peru, locating events from 1900 to 1976. (Epicenters, magnitudes, and depths of focus for plotted seismic 

events are based on instrumental data.)

242 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
COLOMBIA

E C U A D 0 R

B R A S I L

EDUCATION SECTOR

GEOPHYSICAL INSTITUTE OF PERU

SCIENTIFIC DIRECTORATE OF SEISMOLOGY

ZONE 1 LOW INTENSITY

ZONE 2 MEDIUM INTENSITY

ZONE 3 HIGH INTENSITY

200 300 KILOMETERS 

I

12°

14°

18°

Figure 3 Seismic zoning map of Peru. (The formula for the horizontal force H includes a Z factor of 1.0 for zone 1, of 0.7 for zone 2, 

and of 0.3 for zone 3.)

Andean Earthquake Hazards 243
difficulties that we must overcome to meet expected earthquake prediction goals, this despite the fact that our institutions are very much understaffed and the principal investigators appointed to SISAN have never had as much 

time as they should to devote to the project. Moreover, institutions within the same country do not work together 

easily; counterpart funds are always insufficient and are 

not always provided on a timely basis; all other urgent 

matters took precedence over SISAN—these and similar 

obstacles were and are constraints on this or any project of 

this nature.

In addition to projects like SISAN and SISRA, which require significant national commitment as well as matching 

funds from outside, important basic research relevant to 

the assessment of earthquake hazards is also underway. 

Most such effort is due to the initiative of foreign investigators under the auspices of their home institutions. 

Usually there is no significant participation by our local 

scientists, although locals are involved with aspects of 

logistic support. Often, in the past, data from such projects has not even been shared with our local institutions. 

An example is the Narino Project (1973), which was 

designed to study crustal structure from seismic refraction 

data and was carried out in southern Colombia and northern Ecuador. It was carried out by the Institute Geofisico 

de los Andes Colombianos, the Institute Geofisico del 

Peru, the Carnegie Institution of Washington, the University of Wisconsin, the University of Texas at Dallas, the 

University of Hawaii, the University of Washington, 

Seattle, and the Institut fur Geophysik of Kiel University. 

Other projects, similar to Narino, have also been completed in central Colombia and southern Peru and Bolivia, 

with shotpoints offshore, or in fairly deep lakes, or by 

using large mining explosions. These have involved 

the Universities of Wisconsin, Texas, Oregon, and 

Washington, the Hawaii Institute of Geophysics, the 

Carnegie Institution, the Institute Geofisico del Peru, the 

Institute Geofisico Arequipa, and the Institute Geofisico 

de Bolivia. Some of the results of these projects have been 

reported in the literature but a considerable amount of 

data is still to be processed and interpreted, although years 

have elapsed since the field work was done. Nevertheless, 

such research was and indeed is important. Other recent 

projects are as follows:

1. A collaborative project was begun in 1976 by the 

Institute Geofisico del Peru and the Department 

of Terrestrial Magnetism of the Carnegie Institution of Washington. Together, Peruvian and 

American geoscientists looked for a shallow 

aseismic region near the coast and studied in detail 

the form of the Benioff zone in the region between 

12 and 16 degrees south latitude and between 72 

and 77 degrees west longitude. They are correlating this form with an interface in the region

that is determined by the conversion of nearvertical shear waves. The region is also characterized by the existence of an electrical conductivity 

anomaly. Observations and data analysis are nearing completion.

2. Beginning in June 1980, scientists from the 

Massachusetts Institute of Technology (in the 

United States) and the Centre National de la 

Recherche Scientifique (in France) joined scientists of the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP) in 

a long-range study of both shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes beneath Peru. One of 

their goals is to understand the active deformation 

of the Earth's crust that creates the Andes. They 

hope it will thus be possible to define the depth, 

orientation, and type of faulting resulting from 

the process. A second goal is to determine the configuration of the intermediate-depth seismic zone. 

As a result, we should gain a better understanding 

of how the Andean crust deforms, how the Nazca 

plate is subducted beneath Peru, and how to place 

constraints on earthquake hazards in Peru. MIT 

and CNRS plan to work on these problems for 

several years, and the data obtained by each team 

of earth scientists will be made available to all the 

others.

3. Another new joint project relates to neotectonics, 

especially since the mechanisms responsible for 

deformation are associated with strong seismic activity. The general objective of this new two-year 

project is to gain knowledge that will lead to a better understanding of the processes that originate 

seismic activity. Specialists from Office de la 

Recherche Scientifique et Technique Outre-Mer 

(ORSTOM) of France will work with ours in the 

Geophysical Institute of Peru.

4. At present we are also discussing participation 

with the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space 

Administration in their Geodynamics Program, 

which seeks to apply space methods and technology to advance our understanding of earth 

dynamics because a successful earthquake prediction system must be based on a very good comprehension of tectonic processes. It is proposed to 

locate mobile stations Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) and Laser Ranging at several 

sites, arranged in five or six profiles and running 

from the coast over the Andes to the eastern 

plains, from Ecuador to Chile.

5. In cooperation with Canadian scientists from the 

Universities of Alberta and New Brunswick, a 

small geodetic net has been set up across the 

Huaytapallana fault, which is visible at the 

ground surface for 800 meters (fig. 5). The net has

244 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
^>z \\ j-r-o*5 \ \\ c (( 0.^oT.^ - „,.\\J\\

14° —

Figure 4 Area seismic risk predictions for the Department of Lima in Peru: Expected maximum accelerations as located, with an 80- 

percent probability of not being exceeded in a 50-year period.

Andean Earthquake Hazards 245
Figure 5 View of part of the upthrust visible for about 800 

meters along the Huaytapallana fault, which runs from the locality of Cosmos (Junin) about 16 km to the SE in Peru.

been remeasured periodically during the past six 

years, and as yet there is no evidence of movement. In figure 6 it is possible to observe the rock 

displacement which took place during the 1969 

Huaytapallana earthquakes. This would substantiate the propositions that ground acceleration of 

1.0 G and greater does occur in the fault-break 

zones. Similar small nets are being set up in other 

locations in Peru and other countries. 

Research of the sort described in the above examples is 

to be found in several of our countries. It requires a fairly 

large budget, good equipment, laboratories, computing 

facilities, and qualified scientists. So we must encourage 

our foreign friends to continue such work in our countries, 

since it will be some years before we ourselves can allocate 

significant funds for the sole support of such basic science. 

At the same time we must produce a sufficient number of 

qualified geophysicists, seismologists, and geologists of 

our own, who have the same academic preparation and

Figure 6 Rock displacement visible after the 1969 Huaytapallana earthquake in Peru (measured at intensity XI MSK).

246 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
know-how as their foreign colleagues and are able to fully 

understand the objectives of a research project. Then they 

can participate actively and benefit from what they learn 

and relate it to the earthquake hazard and prediction 

capability needed in our countries.

Projects with regional objectives, such as SISAN and 

SISRA, are of more immediate relevance to hazard evaluation than is basic research. On a national scale, high priority should be given to projects such as the estimation of 

seismic risk in relation to huge dams and nuclear power 

plants, earthquake triggered landslides, expansive soils, liquefaction, tsunamis, and other secondary effects that are 

often difficult or even impossible to foresee and evaluate. 

Proper land-use planning from a seismic hazard point of 

view is recognized as an important way to reduce the 

hazard level, but there is really no general implementation 

of rational policies to this effect.

Civil Defense National Committees have been 

established in most South American countries for many 

years. These institutions are doing a very important and 

necessary job with regard to several kinds of hazards. In 

Peru, the National Civil Defense Committee appointed a 

scientific advisory group drawn from other government 

agencies. Without a budget, this group depends on the 

voluntary contributions of people employed elsewhere. 

Despite such a constraint the group has done some interesting work, for example, on the evaluation of the 

"physical factor" with regard to the hazard potential. This 

project includes investigations in the fields of external 

geodynamics, such as landslides, mudflows, subsidence, 

rock fall, liquefaction, inundation, tsunamis, and sand 

migration, and of internal geodynamics, such as earthquakes and volcanism. Effects of rainfall, electrical

storms, freezes, ocean currents, droughts, pollution and 

other man-made hazards are also included. This is, of 

course, a very ambitious project and one that will take 

many years to complete but, at least, it is an effort that 

makes a few people aware of the general problem.

Defensa Civil has also sponsored a project to determine the impact on the city of Lima of a destructive earthquake of intensity IX, estimating the probable damages, as 

a percentage of the value of the property, to different 

building types and to public utilities: water supply, sewage, 

power, transportation, and communications. Secondary 

effects such as tsunamis and fire have also been estimated. 

The study concludes that a seismic event slightly stronger 

than the events of 1940 and 1974 would have catastrophic 

consequences. Much has still to be done, but this effort 

and the other hazard-assessment activities that I have 

described illustrate the fact that, in countries like Peru, 

people are becoming more knowledgeable and more aware 

of what should be done to reduce the damage potential. 

But there is still much to be done to adopt and to enforce 

official policy that will translate earthquake-hazard assessment into appropriate action for the protection of people's 

lives and the reduction of property damage.

A. A. Giesecke

Director

Centre Regional de Sismologia para America del Sur

Av. Arenales 431-of. 702

Apartado: 3747

Lima 100, Peru

Andean Earthquake Hazards 247
An Earthquake Research Programme in Turkey

Nezihi Canitez

Faculty of Mining Engineers —Division of Geophysics, 

Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

INTRODUCTION

Turkey is one of the seismically most active continental regions in the world. The rate of recurrence for destructive earthquakes in Turkey is about 1.1 per year. In addition to contemporary data, we have historical records 

going back 2,000 years. For example, at least 14 destructive earthquakes have occurred in Niksar, a town on the 

North Anatolian Fault, during its long history. Again, 

Erzincan has been completely destroyed five times by the 

worst of the 23 destructive earthquakes that have occurred 

in that region of east central Turkey where 150,000 people 

have lost their lives. Millions of people in Turkey live with 

a significant risk to their lives and property from earthquakes; that is to say, 22 percent of the population live in 

first-degree earthquake regions, 29 percent in seconddegree earthquake regions, and 25 percent in third-degree 

earthquake regions. Thus, only a very small percentage of 

the Turkish people can ignore the earthquake hazard. 

Most people occupy buildings that were not designed to be 

earthquake resistant, and most of these buildings could 

collapse in an earthquake with major losses of life. 

According to official figures, 65,000 deaths were due to 

earthquakes between 1900 and 1977. Today, 25 percent of 

our industrial centers are located in the first-degree earthquake regions, and 49 percent in the second-degree earthquake regions. Figure 1 shows earthquake damage after 

the November 24, 1976, Caldiran (Ms = 7.3, 4,000 deaths) 

and August 16, 1966, Varto (Ms = 6.9, 2,500 deaths) earthquakes. The toll of an earthquake in Turkey or in any 

developing country is much higher than in a developed 

country, and, as a result, earthquake prediction studies are 

a much more important undertaking in developing countries than in the developed countries.

Earthquake prediction is still in a research and experimental stage. However, theory and experience are advanced enough to justify confidence that an expanded 

prediction capability can be achieved. The need for more 

data on responses to earthquake prediction should already 

be obvious, and much can be learned from carefully 

planned monitoring of responses to actual predictions of 

earthquake.

Turkey, with a well-known active plate boundary and 

very high seismic activity produced by different kinds of 

source mechanisms, is an ideal place to test the monitoring 

of the known physical precursory phenomena. Because of 

its higher seismic activity and correspondingly higher

hazards to life and property, the starting point for earthquake prediction in Turkey is the North Anatolian fault 

zone, along which the European and Anatolian plates 

move transcurrently. The area offers many opportunities 

to monitor such parameters as the aseismic creep along the 

well-exposed fault trace, the high microearthquake activity 

(averaging 5 events per day), and water level changes in 

established observational water wells, as well as the opportunity to make geodetic measurements at the preestablished net. Another particularly important reason for 

selecting this area to test precursory phenomena is the 

seismic gaps that exist in several parts of the fault zone 

(Toksoz and others, 1979).

Current and planned earthquake prediction programs 

in Turkey are sponsored mainly by the Mineral Research 

and Exploration Institute of Turkey (M.T.A.), a sister 

organization of the U.S. Geological Survey.

SEISMICITY OF TURKEY

The seismicity of Turkey demonstrates several aspects 

of the plate tectonics theory exceptionally well in certain 

parts of the country. In the north, seismic activity is 

associated with the slip of the North Anatolian transform 

fault, which is quite similar to the San Andreas Fault, having also a well exposed fault trace, creep, and predominantly righthanded motion. The East Anatolian 

transform fault connects the North Anatolian Fault and 

the Dead Sea rift to form a triple junction at Karliova in 

east central Turkey. The East Anatolian Fault shows 

sinistral motion while the Anatolian Plate moves westwards. In the southeast there is a major thrust zone. In 

western Turkey, however, seismic activity is associated 

primarily with normal faulting. Figure 2 shows the earthquake epicenters in Turkey.

The North Anatolian Fault seems to have episodes of 

seismic unrest, separated in time by quiescent periods of 

about 150 years (Ambraseys, 1970). Now, during this most 

recent cycle the style of seismicity of this fault zone is 

similar to the behavior of the San Andreas Fault in 

California. The unstationary character of earthquake occurrences along the fault zone still exists in this last cycle, 

with relatively high activity between 1850 and 1900, a quiet 

period from 1910 until 1939, and an active period from 

1940 to the present (Toksoz and others, 1979).

Using the data from 1900 to 1971, Alptekin (1973) has 

studied frequency-magnitude relations in Turkey. He first

248 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
considered Turkey and the surrounding areas as a single 

region, then subdivided the area into thirteen subregions. 

His division was based on the space distribution of earthquakes and on the major tectonic lines.

A comparison of the frequency-magnitude relations 

indicates higher b-values for the eastern and the western 

parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone. Seismic risk 

estimates based on these frequency-magnitude relations indicate higher seismic risk due to larger earthquakes in the 

central part of the North Anatolian Fault Zone than in the 

relatively more active eastern and western sections. Two 

possible earthquake gaps on the North Anatolian Fault 

(between longitudes 29°-30° E. and 42°-43° E.) have been 

indicated by Toksoz and others (1979).

The earthquake epicenters on the northeast side of the 

eastern segment of the North Anatolian Fault are quite 

scattered (fig. 2). Aerial photographs and surface mapping 

show that the general trend of the faulting in this area is 

parallel to the North Anatolian Fault, and there exist some 

visible foldings indicating a NE. to SW. compression 

(Saroglu of M.T.A., personal commun.; Sengor, 1979; 

Sengor and Canitez, 1979; Sengor and Kidd, 1979).

An earthquake with magnitude Ms -7.3 hit the 

Caldiran area on November 24, 1976, and caused more 

than 4,000 deaths. The surface faulting accompanying this 

event was parallel to the North Anatolian Fault with a 

strike direction of about N. 70° W. at the western part, 

and N. 135° E. at the eastern part of the fault (Arpat and

Figure 1 Earthquake damage in eastern Turkey. A, School building collapsed after August 16, 1966 earthquake. B, A collapsed 

building at Karliova, near the junction of the North Anatolian and East Anatolian faults. The building was located right on the fault. 

C, A view of November 24, 1976 Caldiran earthquake. D, 3-m right-handed offset after Caldiran earthquake. Photographs by Ihsan 

Ketin.

Earthquake Research in Turkey 249
— 35°

Figure 2 Locations of earthquake epicenters in Turkey (map compiled by Aydogan Boray of the M.T.A. Institute of Turkey).

others, 1977; Toksoz and others, 1977). Figure ID shows 

the 3-m right-handed offset of the fault. The stress drop 

calculated from the static parameters of the fault is higher 

than that of some other strike-slip faults (Toksoz and 

others, 1977; Toksoz and others, 1979).

A microearthquake study undertaken by the M.T.A. 

Institute in this area indicates that the three other en 

echelon faults (Tutak, Hasantimur Golii, and Balik Golii 

faults) are also very active (Aktimur and others, 1979). 

This active faulting and high stress accumulation support 

the idea that this part of Turkey might be a potential area 

for another strong earthquake. Taking into account the 

length of the seismic gap, Toksoz and others (1979) expect 

a magnitude 7 earthquake, with a rather speculative assessment because of the limited knowledge of geology, tectonics, and seismic history of the area.

The strike-slip faults north of Lake Van in southeast 

Turkey in general are regarded as the elements of the convergent regime of the Turkish-Iranian plateau and not as 

the continuation of the North Anatolian Fault (Sengor and 

Kidd, 1979; Sengor and Canitez, 1979) though some interpretations exist favoring the idea that they are the translation of the North Anatolian Fault to the northeast (Toksoz 

and others, 1979).

Another important seismic region in Turkey is the East 

Anatolian Fault. This fault starts from the village of 

Karliova in the north, forms a triple junction with the

North Anatolian Fault, and continues in a southwesterly 

direction up to the Hatay rift valley in the south, which is a 

roughly NNE.-striking narrow graben located at the northern end of the Dead Sea rift. The East Anatolian Fault is 

located within the Tauride tectonic unit and cuts the unit 

with a low angle. In the southern part, it is almost parallel 

to the border folds and the southern Taurus boundary 

thrust.

Very little is known about the age and offset of the 

fault. Presently available data indicate that the fault 

started moving during medial Miocene (probably Burdigalian) time, perhaps at the same time that the North 

Anatolian Fault was developed (Dewey, 1977; Sengor, 

1979).

Distribution of earthquake epicenters (fig. 2) and 

displacements in the Quaternary sequences observed in the 

field and from aerial photographs (Arpat and Saroglu, 

1972, 1975) reflect the recent movements of the East 

Anatolian Fault. Present-day seismic activity of the fault is 

not as high as that of the North Anatolian Fault. However, 

historical and archeological data indicate that the East 

Anatolian Fault and the fault zone south of it were very active in the past (Ambraseys, 1970, 1971; Arpat and 

Saroglu, 1972).

A microearthquake study was undertaken by the 

Technical University of Istanbul with collaboration of the 

M.T.A. Institute at a dam site on the Firat River at

250 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Karakaya, near the East Anatolian Fault. Since a part of 

the dammed-up lake will be on the fault, it was decided to 

monitor microearthquake activity before the impounding 

of the dam. The study showed that the microearthquake 

activity was as high as 5 events a day (Ercan, 1979).

The source mechanisms of earthquakes are consistent 

with the observed left-handed displacement of the East 

Anatolian Fault (McKenzie, 1978; Biiyiikasikoglu, 1979). 

In southern Turkey, near the Adana Basin and around the 

junction of the fault with the Hatay Rift, the source 

mechanisms of earthquakes are predominantly tensile in 

character as is to be expected from the geometry of the 

faults and plate tectonics of the area (Alptekin and Ezen, 

1978; Biiyiikasikoglu, 1979).

South of the East Anatolian Fault there is another 

seismic area partly covering the Bitlis Suture zone. The 

earthquake activity in this region is mainly associated with 

the Southern Taurus Boundary Thrust. A destructive 

earthquake in this area occurred at Lice on September 6, 

1975 (Ms = 6.7, 2,400 deaths). The source mechanism of 

this earthquake was thrust faulting with left-handed strike 

component, which is quite similar to the San Fernando 

earthquake (Nabelek and Toksoz, 1978).

Earthquake activity in western Turkey is quite high. 

Generally speaking, the seismic activity in this area is 

mainly controlled by the extensional regime in the Aegean 

area. However, the complicated geometry of the faulting 

in this area and the interaction between adjoining 

microplates create a complicated strain pattern, and, as a 

result, we observe strike-slip faulting at the two western 

strands of the North Anatolian Fault, normal faulting at 

the Marmara and Menderes graben systems, and thrust 

faulting in southwestern Turkey (McKenzie, 1972, 1978; 

Canitez and Ucer, 1967; Dewey and §engor, 1979; 

Alptekin, 1973).

For a better understanding of the present-day tectonics 

of Turkey and surrounding areas, closer attention has to 

be given to the North Anatolian Fault Zone. It is likely that 

we can thus collect more beneficial data to understand the 

nature of deformation of the plates in the Eastern Mediterranean area. A brief summary of the evolution and morphology of this fault therefore follows.

Evolution and Morphology of the North Anatolian Fault

A tectonic boundary coincident with the present North 

Anatolian Fault was recognized early in the 20th century 

(Nowack, 1928; Salomon-Calvi, 1936, 1940), but it was interpreted as an integral part of the erogenic structure in 

Turkey. Based on his previous experience in the Central 

Alps and Corsica, Salomon-Calvi viewed it as the suture 

zone along which the converging Eurasian and Gondwanan continental elements had been apposed during the 

Alpine orogeny.

Ketin (1948) was the first one to recognize the strikeslip nature of the entire structure. He synthesized the

results of the field work carried out on earthquakes that 

had occurred on the fault between 1939 and 1948. He 

remarked that the entire Anatolian block south of the fault 

was rifting westwards with respect to the regions north 

of it.

Since the beginning of the 1960s, numerous studies, 

both geological and geophysical, have been undertaken to 

understand the present structure, the behavior, and the 

geological evolution of the North Anatolian Fault.

The North Anatolian Fault is a long and narrow, dextral strike-slip fault zone that extends from the Gulf of 

Saros in the west to the vicinity of the village of Karliova in 

the east. Thus defined, it has a length of about 1,300 

kilometers.

Morphologically, the North Anatolian Fault is extremely well-defined for the largest part of its course as a 

narrow "rift." The fault zone exhibits numerous cut-off, 

offset and dammed stream valleys, sag ponds, island-like 

hills within major stream valleys following the rift zone of 

the fault, and springs with associated travertine deposits. 

In the rift zone, the country rock is extremely crushed and 

mixed (Ketin, 1957, 1969; Alien, 1969; Wallace, 1968; 

Sengor, 1979; Seymen, 1975; Ambraseys, 1970). The 

photographs in figure 3 show the morphological character 

of the fault zone.

Until the 1970s, the scarcity of field data on the 

general geology of the North Anatolian Fault Zone was the 

primary cause of the wide disagreement among various 

workers as to the age and cumulative offset of the fault. 

Blumenthal (1945) viewed the structure as "Cratogenic," 

which implies a post-orogenic time of origin. In 1948, 

Ketin emphasized that the North Anatolian Fault had 

nothing to do with the erogenic structure of Turkey, but 

instead, was a young, post-orogenic element ruptured during the Neogene. Pavoni (1961) argued that the fault must 

have originated during the early Tertiary and probably has 

an offset on the order of 350 to 400 kilometers. However, 

the succeeding field work not only fully confirmed Ketin's 

original estimate with respect to the age of the structure, 

but also showed that Pavoni's offset estimate was too 

large. Ketin (1976) indicates that before the medial 

Miocene, at least the morphological expression of the fault 

did not exist. The geological data presently available 

bracket the age of initiation of the fault between the Burdigalian and the Pliocene (Abdiisselamoglu, 1959; Dewey 

and others, 1973; Erinc, 1973; Seymen, 1975; Tatar, 1975; 

Bergougnan, 1976; Ketin, 1976).

Although a Neogene age, bracketed between the Burdigalian and the Pliocene, seems well-established for the 

entire structure, we still lack the very detailed observations 

needed to see whether different segments of the fault are of 

the same age or whether they began their activity at different times.

Earthquake Research in Turkey 251
Figure 3 Morphology of the North Anatolian and Caldiran faults. A, Typical fault morphology at the Melen Creek Valley along the 

North Anatolian Fault Zone. B, North Anatolian Fault near Resadiye. Rift morphology accompanying the hot water springs and 

travertine deposits which are seen in many parts of the fault. C, Rift morphology within metamorphic series in Kizilirmak Valley, south 

of Kargi. D, Central part of the Caldiran fault reactivated in 1976 earthquake. Photographs by Ihsan Ketin.

The North Anatolian Fault is one of a large number of 

big strike-slip faults that strike at low angles to the 

segments of the orogenic system in which they are located. 

Such faults seem to have originated late with respect to the 

compressional deformation that largely shaped the orogen. 

The genesis of these structures is viewed as an integral part 

of the process of continental collision (McKenzie, 1972; 

Molnar and Tapponnier, 1975; Sengor, 1976; Dewey, 

1977). For the specific case of the North and East 

Anatolian Faults, McKenzie (1972) and Dewey and Sengor 

(1979) suggested that the medial Miocene collision of 

Arabia with Eurasia caused crustal thickening, as a result 

of north-south shortening, in eastern Anatolia. The 

Anatolian plate was thus squeezed out along the two 

newly-generated plate boundaries, the North and East 

Anatolian Faults, so as to consume the subductable 

oceanic lithosphere of the eastern Mediterranean along the 

Hellenic Trench.

In conclusion, we can say that the North Anatolian 

Fault is one element in the complicated "incomplete" collision system of the eastern Mediterranean and that its 

evolution has progressed in time in harmony with the 

related structures that surround it.

RESEARCH PROGRAM ON EARTHQUAKE 

PREDICTION IN TURKEY

The human and economic losses due to earthquakes 

are particularly serious in the developing countries. The increase in population and the tendency towards urban concentration may increase the toll of future earthquakes.

The population growth in the developing countries has 

caused a very rapid expansion of towns and a considerable 

proliferation of large urban areas, the growth of which is 

neither planned nor controlled. This phenomenon is causing and perhaps will continue to cause increasingly severe 

human and economic losses.

252 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
First Phase

The widespread concern aroused by such destructive 

earthquakes as those in Lice in 1975 (Ms = 6.7, 2,400 

deaths) and in Van Province in 1976 (Ms = 7.3, 4,000 

deaths) led to the mobilization of Turkish institutions for 

earthquake prediction studies. Organizational meetings 

were sponsored by the Scientific and Technical Research 

Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), and were attended by 

representatives of universities, ministries, observatories, 

and the Mineral Research and Exploration Institute 

(M.T.A.). The M.T.A. was chosen as the lead agency for 

earthquake prediction and given the primary responsibility 

for all field operations.

The program was organized to include:

1. Detailed geological mapping of active fault zones;

2. Monitoring of microearthquakes;

3. Ground deformation measurements; and

4. Collection of earthquake statistics to prepare a 

data base for risk analysis and to locate seismic 

gaps along major fault lines.

An extensive program for the mapping of the active fault 

zones has already been started by the Department of Basic 

Research of the M.T.A. Institute. Studies involving 

fieldwork, space images, air-photos, and microearthquake 

studies have led to the discovery of active faults that had 

not been recognized before. One such example is the rightlateral, strike-slip fault named the "Tutak Fault." It was 

found to be similar to the Caldiran earthquake fault on the 

basis of such features as sense of motion, direction, and 

length. The Tutak and Caldiran Faults constitute an en 

echelon system whose third member is the Balik Golii Fault 

located at the north of the Caldiran Fault, 50 kilometers 

away.

The most complicated and important part of eastern 

Turkey has already been mapped with Landsat imagery 

and fieldwork. This mapping covers mainly the junction 

of the North and the East Anatolian Faults and the area 

extending up to the Iranian border and will be published soon (F. Saroglu of the M.T.A., personal 

communication).

The M.T.A. Institute has sponsored fieldwork by 

universities in monitoring microearthquakes along the 

North and the East Anatolian Faults. Monitoring of 

seismicity using a small portable array between 1975 and 

1977 indicated that, on the average, there were about 5 

local earthquakes per day along the North and the East 

Anatolian Faults.

Ground deformation along major fault zones and 

anomalous tilts prior to some earthquakes have been 

observed (Johnston and Mortensen, 1974; Johnston and 

others, 1975; Rikitake, 1974, 1976; Thatcher, 1976; Savage 

and others, 1973; Castle and others, 1976). With the collaboration of the M.T.A. Institute and the Technical 

University of Istanbul, two bore-hole type tiltmeters have

been installed on the Menderes graben in western Turkey, 

Well-documented creep has been observed along the North 

Anatolian Fault at Ismetpa§a (lat 40.8° N., long 32.7° E.) 

(Geotimes, 1972). There is also some evidence of creep further west, near 32° E.

In order to make reliable estimates of the time, place, 

and magnitude of future earthquakes, an ultimate prediction system has to be based on well-understood physical 

principles. Particularly a basic understanding of the tectonic process is required to achieve a practical earthquake 

prediction capability. This requires detailed observations 

regarding the nature of the contemporary movements of 

the plates, the nature of their deformation, and the 

changes of strain field with time near a given plate boundary by repeated surveys of a network established for these 

purposes. Some seismic markers were placed by the 

M.T.A. Institute around the North and East Anatolian 

Faults, and in western Anatolia as well, to initiate conventional geodetic surveying. This effort starts this year 

(1979).

Repeated surveying of small networks using conventional techniques gives us detailed and quite accurate information about the near-field deformation of the Earth's 

crust. However, for information about global-scale deformation, long base line measurements are necessary. Conventional geodetic techniques are not accurate enough for 

this purpose. The North Anatolian Fault is a logical candidate, along with the San Andreas Fault of California and 

the Alpine Fault of New Zealand, for large scale investigations of the lateral motions of plates across the faults. 

Space technology is the most suitable means to achieve this 

goal. It is both the most economical and practical means, 

since it does not require extensive road networks and active 

continuous measurements. For example, passive ground 

networks of reflectors can be integrated with satelliteborne lasers. To that end, the European Space Agency is 

presently formulating a program for the application of 

space technology to measurements of the North Anatolian 

Fault (ESA, 1979).

One important point in geodetic measurements is the 

continuity of the program, and in general, developing 

countries have experienced difficulties in sustaining continuous measurements. However, the use of mobile stations within an international program could be most 

helpful in overcoming these difficulties.

Second Phase

The second phase of prediction studies in Turkey was 

started this year 1979 within the framework of a research 

project sponsored by the U.S. Geological Survey, and 

under the leadership of Dr. Mehmet Nafi Toksoz of the 

Massachusetts Institute of Technology. The program is 

carried out as a cooperative project by M.I.T. with the 

M.T.A. Institute and two Turkish universities (Istanbul

Earthquake Research in Turkey 253
Technical University and Karadeniz Technical University). 

The instruments are provided by the U.S. Geological 

Survey. The M.T.A. Institute provides the sites, local 

logistical and labor support for installation, and assumes 

the responsibility for routine operation and maintenance. 

The project will include the following work:

1. Installation of short and long period seismic stations in eastern and southern Turkey;

2. Installation of a relatively dense network for a 

detailed study of seismicity and possible earthquake precursors at the western segment of the 

North Anatolian Fault;

3. Ground tilt measurements in western Anatolia;

4. Creep measurements along the North Anatolian 

fault zone; and

5. Monitoring water level changes in water wells.

An eight-station network of portable instruments has 

been in operation along the western segment of the North 

Anatolian Fault since July 1979. There are 20 short period 

seismic stations operating in the Marmara region, including those of Kandilli Observatory (fig. 4). One seismic 

station, with both short and long period instruments, has 

already been installed at Trabzon, in northeastern Turkey. 

The second station of this type will be located at Adana, 

near the junction of the East Anatolian Fault with the 

Dead Sea Rift. The site preparation of this station is finished and the instruments are scheduled for installation 

this autumn (November 1979).

- 35°

30' 40° 45°

Figure 4 Location map of seismic instrumentation in Turkey. 

Dark circles designate permanent seismic stations; small open 

circles, portable seismographs; T, tiltmeter sites; bars, creep 

meter sites.

Because the developing countries are hampered by 

both inexperience and severe economic problems, international and (or) bilateral cooperation are necessary if they 

are to begin useful earthquake prediction studies. Thus the 

cooperative program between the U.S. Geological Survey 

and the M.T.A. Institute of Turkey, which was started this 

year, will not only initiate prediction studies in our country, but it will also supply more input to world knowledge 

of earthquake prediction. We are sure also that this program will encourage additional physical measurements by 

the Turkish scientific groups.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

It was a great honor for me to be invited to the celebration of the centennial of the U.S. Geological Survey. I 

thank Professor Ihsan Ketin for providing me with some 

slides for the oral presentation. I am grateful to Dr. M. 

Nafi Toksoz for critical discussions. This work was partly 

supported by the U.S. Geological Survey under Contract 

#14-08-0001-16887.

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Nezihi Canitez 

Istanbul Technical University 

Faculty of Mining Engineers 

Division of Geophysics 

Tesvikiye, Istanbul, Turkey

Earthquake Research in Turkey 255
Volcano Hazards —Lessons Learned in the 

Eastern Caribbean

Richard S. Fiske

Director, National Museum of Natural History 

The Smithsonian Institution 

Washington, D.C.

INTRODUCTION

Active volcanoes and earthquakes threaten the lives 

and property of people in many parts of the world. Scientists in numerous countries have intensified efforts to 

understand and predict these phenomena, but much additional work needs to be done. Two aspects of the volcano 

hazard, those relating to the adequacy of baseline 

geophysical data and the interactions among scientists and 

members of the press corps, can be brought into somewhat 

sharper focus by considering, very briefly, two recent eruptions in the eastern Caribbean —on Guadeloupe in 1976 

and on St. Vincent in 1979. The lessons learned as a result 

of these experiences are pertinent not only to volcanologists but to earthquake specialists as well.

The habitat of active volcanoes around the world is 

very much the same as that of destructive earthquakes. If 

plotted on a world map, most volcanoes and epicenters of 

earthquakes occur in rather narrow zones or bands that 

coincide with the boundaries between the giant plates or 

slabs of lithosphere that, according to the theory of plate 

tectonics, are slowly moving over the Earth's surface. 

Specifically, most earthquakes and volcanoes are clustered 

in places where these plates are being created and moving 

away from each other (such as along the mid-ocean ridges) 

and in places where these plates collide and override (such 

as along the "circle of fire" that rims the Pacific Ocean). 

Significantly, places where lithospheric plates slide laterally past each other, such as along the San Andreas fault 

in California, are places where large earthquakes can be 

expected, but where there is little or no volcanic activity.

Focusing more closely on the eastern Caribbean, volcanoes that have erupted within the past few hundred 

years, or within the recent geologic past, form a gently 

curving necklace-like array extending from Saba in the 

north to Grenada in the south. At depth, the lithospheric 

plate underlying the central Atlantic Ocean is slowly 

descending beneath the Caribbean plate, and this process, 

called subduction, results in partial melting of rock at 

depth. This melt rises buoyantly to the surface, producing 

the volcanic activity that is so characteristic of island arcs, 

such as the one lying along the eastern margin of the Caribbean Sea.

Looking at the same map of the eastern Caribbean in a 

somewhat different way, it is possible to appreciate one 

important difference between the hazards posed by 

volcanoes and earthquakes. Volcanoes occur as discrete 

entities, virtual dots on a map, and the location of the 

hazard is considerably constrained. Land use planning and 

strategies for evacuation can therefore be developed in the 

context of the specific areas that might at some time be exposed to danger. Hazardous earthquakes, on the other 

hand, can originate anywhere beneath a wide band extending along the Lesser Antilles, and therefore the hazard 

posed by earthquakes in this area, and in similar areas 

around the world, is much more pervasive. In a sense, 

therefore, volcano hazards can be dealt with more 

straightforwardly, because we already know where future 

hazards are likely to occur.

What is the nature of the volcanic hazard in the Lesser 

Antilles? In brief, volcanoes such as Soufriere, on St. Vincent, and Mont Pelee, on Martinique, are amongst the 

most dangerous in the world. The lavas that they emit are 

fairly viscous and contain significant amounts of water 

vapor and other dissolved gases. These characteristics tend 

to cause extraordinary build-ups of pressure within the 

volcanoes' underground plumbing systems, leading to explosive eruptions at the surface.

The most infamous eruption in the Lesser Antilles in 

historic time took place in May 1902 on the French island 

of Martinique. Mont Pelee, which rises just to the northeast of the city of St. Pierre, erupted violently and sent 

avalanches of searing hot gases and debris pouring down 

the slopes of the volcano. The edge of one of these avalanches swept across St. Pierre, killing all but one of the 

town's 29,000 inhabitants in a matter of seconds. The two 

volcano crises of the 1970s, which are the chief focus of 

this brief report, can better be appreciated by keeping in 

mind that the memory of the St. Pierre catastrophe has not 

been forgotten by the people of the Lesser Antilles.

CRISIS ON GUADELOUPE, 1976

The first volcanic crisis of the 1970s took place at La 

Soufriere volcano on the French island of Guadeloupe.

256 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Abnormal counts of local earthquakes began to be recorded in mid- and late 1975, and by the spring of 1976 the 

volcano had been the site of many hundreds of small earthquakes. In early July, steam and ash burst from the 

summit of the volcano accompanied by numerous felt 

earthquakes, and even the most sanguine of the local inhabitants knew that they were dealing with a highly 

unstable volcano. By mid-August 1976, steam and ash 

were erupting almost continuously from the summit of the 

volcano and hundreds, or even thousands, of local earthquakes were recorded each day (fig. 1). Fearing the worst 

and, of course, remembering the fate of St. Pierre on 

another French island in 1902, and having inadequate 

baseline data upon which to make accurate predictions, 

civil authorities ordered the evacuation of all 72,000 people 

living on the slopes of the volcano — including all of those 

inhabiting the capital city of Basse Terre (fig. 2).

Figure 1 Oblique aerial view of the summit of La Soufriere, 

Guadeloupe, August 1976. Plume of vapor and ash boils from the 

summit of the volcano; the villages and towns that can be seen in 

the background were totally evacuated during the crisis.

Figure 2 Street scene of the totally evacuated capital city of 

Basse Terre, Guadeloupe, August 1976. The smoldering summit 

of La Soufriere rises just to the east of the city.

The evacuation, once implemented, rapidly became a 

nightmare. The much feared eruption never did occur, and 

the tens of thousands of evacuees became more and more 

restless as the weeks and months dragged on. After three 

and a half months of costly disruption to the people and 

economy of the island, the French government assembled 

an ad hoc Comite Scientifique Internationale sur la 

Soufriere, to help decide whether or not the volcano continued to pose a hazard. Because there was such controversy amongst the French scientific community as to 

whether the volcano was ever really dangerous, and 

whether the evacuation was justified in the first place, the 

government of France invited six non-French scientists to 

serve on this Comite—two from Italy, two from the United 

States (then Massachusetts Institute of Technology professor Frank Press and myself), and one each from Iceland 

and Japan. The Comite determined in mid-November 1976 

that the volcano appeared not to pose as great a hazard as 

it did a few months earlier, and that with increased

Volcano Hazards 257
monitoring possible future outbursts could be anticipated. 

Once this determination was received by the French 

government an end to the evacuation was ordered, and life 

gradually returned to normal on Guadeloupe.

To my way of thinking, the crucial issue at La 

Soufriere in 1976 was that there was an inadequate data 

base of scientific information upon which to assess the 

ongoing activity. In mid-1976 the volcano was obviously in 

a restless state, with steam and ash pouring from its summit and thousands of local earthquakes originating within 

several kilometers of the surface. But the network of 

seismometers was not sufficient to document any upward 

migration of earthquake foci that might have taken place. 

Furthermore, prior to the climax of the crisis, there had 

been no baseline measurements, which would be necessary 

to detect changes in shape of the volcano (deformation 

studies of the type developed at the U.S. Geological 

Survey's Hawaiian Volcano Observatory) or the configuration of the local magnetic field. Thus, there was considerable uncertainty as to what the volcano was going to 

do, and, in this air of uncertainty and apprehension, the 

most conservative course of action was followed — total 

evacuation.

CRISIS ON ST. VINCENT, 1979

Few people would have dreamed that a second volcano 

crisis would arise in the Lesser Antilles in the 1970s. 

Another volcano, also named Soufriere, thundered to life 

on April 12, 1979, on the island of St. Vincent, about 300 

kilometers south of Guadeloupe. Despite the similarities in 

the names of these volcanoes, there were important differences between the crises on Guadeloupe and St. Vincent. At St. Vincent, a fairly good set of baseline 

geophysical data was in hand before the eruption began. 

The temperature of the water in the crater lake at the summit of the volcano had been monitored at regular intervals, 

and telltale increases of several degrees during the summer 

and fall of 1978 suggested that something abnormal was 

developing. Two stations designed to detect possible deformation of the volcano (utilizing the "dry tilt" technique 

first developed by U.S. Geological Survey scientists) were 

established two years before the eruption, and repeat 

measurements at these stations indeed indicated that the 

volcano was swelling, possibly as a prelude to a future 

eruption. Finally, and undoubtedly most important, 

seismometers were in continuous operation on and near 

the volcano, and the signals from these instruments were 

telemetered to Trinidad so that they could be observed and 

interpreted in real time by scientists of the Seismic 

Research Unit of the University of the West Indies.

Not only was there better understanding of 

geophysical changes that were taking place at Soufriere, 

St. Vincent, but there was no doubt that the volcano had 

entered a dangerous phase by the early morning hours of

Figure 3 Vertical eruption cloud rises into the early morning sky 

from the summit of Soufriere volcano, St. Vincent, April 22, 

1979. The profile of the volcano, as seen in the left center of the 

photograph, rises to an altitude of about 1 kilometer above sea 

level. The eruption cloud, therefore, is at this point about 6 

kilometers in altitude; the cloud eventually rose to an altitude of 

15 kilometers.

April 12, 1979 (fig. 3). Powerful vertical explosions sent 

clouds of ash and vapor to altitudes of more than 18 

kilometers, and avalanches of debris, much smaller than

258 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
those that destroyed parts of Martinique in 1902, swept 

down valleys on the east and west slopes of the volcano. At 

the outset of the crisis, there was no time for an official 

evacuation order from civil authorities — the volcano itself 

provided an alarm, and most of the 22,000 people living in 

exposed areas evacuated themselves within a few hours. 

The government of St. Vincent enforced this evacuation 

for several weeks, permitting people to enter the hazardous 

areas only during daylight hours to tend or retrieve 

livestock and to remove other valuable possessions (fig. 4).

Figure 4 River valley on west slope of Soufriere, St. Vincent, 

that was devastated by the repeated passage of hot avalanches and 

mud flows. The scouring action of the mud flows deepened the 

floor of the valley about 30 meters. Photo taken in June 1979.

The hazardous phase of the St. Vincent eruption lasted 

for about two and a half weeks, during which a series of 

powerful vertical explosions punctuated periods of 

volcanic "restlessness," characterized by thousands of local 

earthquakes and many hundreds of small explosions. During this period, the one scientific team, made up chiefly of 

researchers from the University of the West Indies (located

in St. Augustine, Trinidad) provided the local government 

with daily reports, both orally and in written form, on the 

status of the volcano. This team constituted the only 

source of scientific information, and therefore it became 

the single focal point for detailed knowledge of the ongoing event. Members of the press corps were prohibited 

from travelling into the evacuated zone (where a temporary volcano observatory had been established), and 

therefore there was very limited contact between scientists 

and the press. The press received daily briefings from 

government officials, which consisted essentially of information digested from the daily reports provided by the 

scientific team. Only one reporter insisted strongly that he 

be permitted to interview scientists on the scene within the 

evacuated area so that he could get his own story. The 

government, however, insisted that there should be only 

one channel of information flowing from scientists to 

government to press, and, therefore, this particularly aggressive reporter, not wanting to adhere to this policy, was 

summarily deported from the island.

After the series of large explosions ceased, the lava 

began to extrude quietly to the floor of the summit crater, 

the government gradually relaxed the evacuation restrictions, and by early June life had essentially returned to 

normal on St. Vincent. During the summer, the government and the scientific team kept in close contact in the 

event that the situation were to suddenly worsen. It never 

did, and the rate at which the lava was quietly erupted 

gradually diminished and ceased altogether by October 

1979.

SOME COMPARISONS

It is interesting and instructive to compare aspects of 

these two eruptions —La Soufriere, Guadeloupe, 1976 and 

Soufriere, St. Vincent, 1979. Despite the fact that both of 

these volcanoes occur along the same island arc (or, to put 

it another way, they both are the result of the collision between the Atlantic and Caribbean lithospheric plates), the 

nature of the activity at these two volcanoes was 

dramatically different. The 1976 activity at La Soufriere, 

Guadeloupe, had been classified as phreatic—consisting 

entirely of the emission of steam and other gases without 

the eruption of new lava. At times, these gases jetted forth 

with such violence that fragments of older and altered rock 

from the interior of the volcano were torn free and swept 

high into the air, giving rise to the ash that was showered 

over the surrounding countryside. Large explosions, much 

feared during the summer of 1976, never occurred. In contrast, the 1979 activity at Soufriere, St. Vincent, was clearly more violent, more dangerous, and resulted in fairly 

large quantities of new lava being erupted at the surface.

Even though the 1976 activity on Guadeloupe appeared to be more dangerous than it actually was, the 

paucity of baseline scientific data on Guadeloupe

Volcano Hazards 259
prevented this fact from being appreciated at the time. To 

further complicate the situation, there were differing scientific opinions being expressed on Guadeloupe during the 

summer of 1976, again resulting in large part from the inadequacy of the available data base. Finally, members of 

the press corps were permitted almost unlimited contact 

with groups of disagreeing scientists and, at times, these 

disagreements themselves became the "news" rather than 

what was actually happening at the volcano. In St. Vincent, on the other hand, scientists and the press communicated with each other only via the central government, and from all indications the government did an 

entirely adequate job of making information available on 

a timely basis to the media.

In conclusion, earthquakes and volcanoes threaten 

millions of people, especially those living in regions near 

the boundaries of lithospheric plates. In the eastern Caribbean in the 1970s two volcano crises took place in the context of limited baseline data. One of these (at La Soufriere, 

Guadeloupe) appeared to pose a dire threat, but never did 

erupt as expected; the other (Soufriere, St. Vincent) 

erupted violently and clearly posed a threat to the nearby

population. On Guadeloupe, members of the press corps 

had unlimited access to the various scientific teams, and 

the disagreements amongst the scientists were broadcast 

worldwide. On St. Vincent, the press and the scientific 

team did not communicate directly, and the single narrative of the eruption provided by the scientists was 

dispersed by the media in a far more orderly manner.

Scientists concerned with predicting earthquakes 

might be well advised to familiarize themselves with the 

lessons learned in the eastern Caribbean during the 1970s, 

especially those related to the availability of baseline data 

and the interface between scientists and the media, as they 

address the much more challenging problems posed by 

earthquake prediction.

Richard S. Fiske

Director

National Museum of Natural History

Room 421

Smithsonian Institution

Washington, D.C. 20560

260 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
The International, Multidisciplinary Approach to 

Earthquake Hazard Reduction

Robert E. Wallace

U.S. Geological Survey

I have been asked to comment on the preceding talks 

by Drs. Giesecke and Canitez. j)r Giesecke decried the 

lack of national commitment and of political and administrative action in regard to the earthquake problem. 

This seems to be a problem that we who are concerned 

about earthquakes have in common with the mineral 

specialists, the cartographers and the hydrologists, who 

each in turn, over the past few days, have voiced their concern about the lack of public attention given to severe 

natural resources and environmental problems facing the 

world. On the other hand, I was impressed with the international cooperation reported by Dr. Giesecke. A group of 

countries in South America have developed a cooperative 

earthquake hazard reduction program, and Japan and the 

United States have helped.

Dr. Canitez reported on the development of a 

technologically advanced earthquake program in Turkey. I 

have watched with great gratification the growth of a 

center of excellence at the Mineral Research and Exploration Institute of Turkey (MTA), previously under the 

direction of Dr. S. Alpan and more recently under Dr. 

Canitez. With the help of Turkish studies of the North 

Anatolian fault in Turkey, we should hasten our 

understanding of the San Andreas fault in California 

because the North Anatolian fault, very analogous to the 

San Andreas fault, has produced far more large earthquakes in recent decades than has the San Andreas.

Dr. Canitez emphasized the human and economic 

problems brought on by earthquakes, and the potential importance of earthquake prediction, especially to less 

developed countries. I will comment more fully on that 

thesis in one moment.

We continue to be reminded of the hazard of living 

with earthquakes — a hazard shared by many, many countries. For example, our colleagues in the People's Republic 

of China estimated that the casualties in the Tangshan 

earthquake of 1976 reached 240,000. Earthquakes can inflict the most sudden and concentrated disasters of all 

natural events.

The worldwide nature of the earthquake threat has 

stimulated an extremely free and rapid exchange of information, technology, and methods, and a true sense of 

cooperation throughout the world. The fact that the common cause is essentially nonpolitical no doubt enhances 

this international cooperation.

The methods of earthquake hazard reduction can be 

categorized into two main approaches: (1) postdisaster 

response, and (2) preventive measures. I shall comment 

briefly on preventive methods, as they hold much promise 

for reducing the hazard in the future.

In the past 50 years, technological advances in 

earthquake-resistant engineering design and construction 

practice have become sophisticated and today represent 

our first line of defense against earthquakes. But other 

defenses are emerging. Defensive use of land (a form of 

land-use planning) and earthquake prediction are two that 

are in their infancy. In only a few places in the world is the 

adverse behavior of land during earthquakes considered in 

planning urban areas. As one example, California State 

law requires that special studies be made when structures 

for human occupancy are to be built near active earthquake faults. The logic is that to build astride an active 

fault is ridiculous when by moving a few tens of meters, 

the hazard of shearing by surface faulting can largely be 

avoided.

Earthquake prediction has been evolving for about a 

decade as a topic for credible research. In the People's 

Republic of China, however, tens of thousands of lives 

have already been saved by successful earthquake predictions. In the Soviet Union, successful predictions also have 

been achieved; Japan is making rapid advances in earthquake prediction; and a major research effort is underway 

in the United States. When earthquake prediction becomes 

operational, it can be a powerful alternative to engineering 

and land use in our defense against earthquakes. In the less 

developed countries neither earthquake-resistant design 

and construction nor land-use planning may provide full 

or satisfactory protection. Materials for earthquakeresistant construction may be either unavailable or 

economically unobtainable in many areas of different 

countries. Even in the most technologically developed 

areas, structures built during past decades and centuries 

are not necessarily safe from earthquakes. In the city of 

Los Angeles there are approximately ten thousand 

buildings that likely will collapse in a great earthquake, 

and all structures built to standards now out of date can be

Earthquake Hazard Reduction 261
considered unsafe to some degree. No economy can consider retroactive measures on so massive a scale as complete rebuilding; even the most hazardous buildings are 

difficult to phase out because of economic and social constraints.

Earthquake predictions, that will permit evacuation of 

hazardous buildings (not evacuation of cities, may I emphasize) for a short period of time, can provide an adequate means of safeguarding lives in many situations. 

Although highly accurate prediction is still only a dream, I 

believe it is a realistic hope and, to my mind, an extremely 

worthy goal.

Another powerful measure, though perhaps to be 

claimed by the engineers, is one more nearly to be classed 

as a sociological or communications approach; that is, the 

improved education of the laborer and craftsman in 

elementary earthquake-resistant techniques of construction. As an example, the common failure of brick and 

masonry work around the world during earthquakes 

causes many casualties. My engineer friends point out that 

the simple techniques of applying mortar to bricks can 

vastly affect the strength of a brick wall. If all bricklayers 

and masons were to use good mortar, if they were to 

moisten their bricks properly, and if they were to apply 

mortar to the vertical ends as well as the horizontal flats of 

bricks rather than chinking the vertical holes later, their 

walls would be stronger. Perhaps more lives would be 

saved by improving indigenous masonry work than by all 

the advanced-technology methods combined. A list of

other simple techniques for making structures more 

earthquake-resistant could be presented. Even in more advanced countries, where codes, standards, and designs are 

good and materials are available, the system often fails in 

the execution phase.

During the past decade a real sense of international 

cooperation has grown in our mutual defense against 

earthquakes, and close cooperation among extremely 

diverse disciplines has become a growing practice. 

Engineers, seismologists, geologists, sociologists, politicians, and financiers are at last learning each other's 

languages, are communicating freely, and have a sense of 

joint dedication toward solving the earthquake problem. 

Those of us who are engaged in earthquake studies still 

have many technical problems to solve, but I would be 

gratified if history records our most important contribution as one small demonstration of how international and 

multidisciplinary cooperation can enhance mankind's 

problem-solving ability.

Indeed, without far greater international cooperation 

and without the full application of all the scientific and 

social understanding we can muster in common service to 

mankind, mankind may not survive the 21st Century.

R. Wallace

U.S. Geological Survey, MS 77 

345 Middlefield Road 

Menlo Park, California 94025

262 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Assessment of Earthquake Prediction in Seismic 

Hazard Reduction Problems

Keichi Kasahara

Earthquake Research Institute 

University of Tokyo, Japan

It is really a pleasure for me to have participated in this 

symposium for the Centennial of the U.S. Geological 

Survey.

Last Tuesday, Dr. Bender compared the resources 

problem to an interesting comic picture, in which three 

men on a drifting raft are consuming their raft logs as fuel. 

Taking this analogy, I would propose to add to his picture 

a storm approaching the raft to illustrate the relation of 

geological hazards to the natural resources problem. Once 

a geological hazard such as an earthquake happens, it will 

take a vast amount of wealth, prosperity, and even human 

lives away from us. It is really a catastrophic consumption 

of stock resources, and, in this respect, hazard reduction 

provides us with a counter approach to saving of the 

limited resources of the world. I would like to review, in 

the following, an approach to assessment of hazard reduction, taking earthquake prediction research as an example.

A prediction seismologist may be compared to a baseball player in a batter's box. He should not swing his bat at 

any false ball, but he should swing and hit every nice 

(strike) ball. This analogy suggests that predictions of 

earthquakes must be scored with respect to two categories, 

i.e., the hit and alarm rates. The symbols M, m, and Fin 

figure 1 denote number (or frequency) of the earthquakes 

to be alarmed, to be successfully predicted, and to issue an

alarm, respectively. Then, the hit rate/?! and alarm rate/?a 

are defined as

(1)

If pi =p2 = 1, then our prediction is perfect.

Another quantity to be introduced is the merit factor 

of earthquake prediction which Utsu (1977) defined as

ML

l_ L f 

L Pi L

Figure 1 Seismic events and prediction success. M, events to be 

alarmed; F, alarm issued; and m, successful prediction.

where, we take the following notations:

L, seismic hazard without prediction per event;

/, seismic hazard per event, when properly 

predicted;

/, cost of imminent treatment after prediction 

per event;

C, total cost of prediction work for a certain 

period of time; and,

c, C/ML.

For the sake of simplicity, we have assumed a uniform size 

of events, in the above. The total loss will amount to ML if 

we have no prediction, and to Ff+ ml+ C, if we succeed in 

prediction. Briefly, Fris the difference of possible losses in 

these two cases relative to that without prediction. By use 

of (1), we may obtain the last expression in (2), which permits us to deal with the losses only in a relative manner, 

i.e., l/L andf/L. If we assume p2 =PI = 1 (perfect prediction), then the merit factor in this case E0 is

E0 =l-(l+f)/L-c (3) 

and the following inequality may be derived from it:

-oo<F<F0 <l (4)

Practically, pi and p2 are related to one another. In a 

cautious (pessimistic) prediction program, we may improve PI (— 1) at the expense of p2 (—0). In an optimistic 

prediction program, on the other hand, /?2 — 1, but p\ —0. 

Qualitatively, therefore, the merit factor F will be lost if 

we take either of the extreme attitudes for prediction 

research (Utsu, 1977).

Earthquake Prediction 263
Suppose E is below zero, then our prediction program 

is useless, or even harmful. Precise evaluation of E is apparently difficult at the moment, but we may develop some 

more discussion, in reference to the records of hazards in 

the past and a guess of prediction costs. Figure 2 illustrates 

the frequency per century of disastrous earthquakes in 

Japan since 1000 A.D. Statistical homogeneity is generally 

questionable over such a long duration of time. Yet, the 

frequency of extremely large earthquakes in the main 

islands (excluding Hokkaido) suggests fairly uniform 

seismicity during this period, counting one or two events 

per century during this period on an average (see the 

shadowed column in the middle part of figure 2). In other 

words, the recent increase of frequency of smaller earthquakes (top figure) is principally attributed to urban 

development. This effect may be noticed in the statistics of 

loss of lives (bottom figure), which shows an accelerated 

increase of life loss from earthquake hazards in the recent 

centuries. Further details of the statistics (not shown in the 

figure) show us a notable trend: that tsunamis and collapsing of houses were the predominant causes of life loss in 

early centuries, but death in fire has been the principal 

cause in the recent two centuries.

Explosive increase of potential disaster in big cities 

may be a consequence of the heavy concentration of 

population there. Figure 3 illustrates the population in 

Tokyo from 1850 to the present time. We have three major

100 -

50

DISASTROUS EARTHQUAKES IN JAPAN

M> 5.5

1000

101-

1500

M> 7.7

2000

1000

200,000

LLI CC

o <

£§100,000

1500 

LOSS OF LIVES

2000

1000 1500 

YEAR

2000

Figure 2 Disastrous earthquakes and loss of lives from earthquake hazards in Japan.

seismic hazards during this period, in 1855, 1894 and 1923, 

respectively, where the last event caused about 145,000 

deaths (including missing) out of a population of four 

million. At present, Tokyo's population is almost twelve 

million (even more, including those of the adjacent cities), 

so that a simple calculation suggests that the loss would be 

tripled, if a similar event recurred now. Our situation is apparently much worse, since the fragility of a modern city 

must be taken into account. It is easy to imagine that a 

tremendous amount of damage will occur both in human 

lives and property in the next catastrophe, unless efficient 

countermeasures are provided before the potential 

disaster.

1850 1900 1950

Figure 3 Population in Tokyo, Japan. Major disastrous earthquakes are indicated by arrows, where M is the magnitude and 

numerals in brackets represent loss of lives in the respective event.

Figure 4 is a summary of annual budget for Japanese 

prediction research since 1965. After the previous three 

phases, we entered into the fourth five-year phase, last 

year, where an annual budget of about 40 million dollars is 

being proposed. In our strategy, our efforts for making 

predictional observations are concentrated into several 

regions, which occupy about 20 percent of the Japanese 

land area. Precise estimate of the total expenses for prediction is of course difficult, at the moment. If a very rough 

guess is allowed, then we estimate for the next ten years the 

total cost of prediction research at about half a billion 

dollars. The cost would be several billion dollars, if the 

budget is ten times as high as the said level. Even in the latter case, the cost of prediction research is still only a fraction of a percent of the seismic loss in the 1923 event, after 

conversion to the present price index.

Let us avoid the difficulty of absolute estimates of 

seismic losses and prediction costs, and study the assessment in a relative manner. Figure 5 refers to eq. (2) and 

shows the merit factor in the l/L versus f/L domain with 

Pi and p2 being fixed. The shadowed space showing 

negative values of E is eliminated from discussion.

Little is known about these four parameters l/L, f/L, 

Pi t and p2 . Only a slight clue for estimating the hit and

264 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
10

<ca.$40 million Proposed r~ —r~"

i 

I

I

1965 1970 1975 1980

Figure 4 Annual budgets for earthquake prediction work in 

Japan, 1965-1980.

PfO.I p2=0.2 I/I

Figure 5 The merit factor £ as a function ofpi,p2 , l/L and//L 

(c is assumed as 0).

alarm rates is provided in retrospect by evaluating the 

statistics of anomalous events which preceded appreciable 

earthquakes in the past (Kasahara, 1980). So far as the 

Japanese leveling work is concerned, the frequency of 

meaningful preseismic land uplifts is only a fraction of that 

of anomalous land uplifts which were detected by leveling. 

This score suggests that the hit rate p\ by this single technique may be about 0.1. The ratio of the frequency of 

seismic events with preseismic land uplift to that of

disastrous earthquakes seems similar to the above score. 

From these considerations, p\ and p2 are provisionally 

taken as 0.1 and 0.2 respectively, although these rates may 

be improved by operating dense observational networks of 

various geophysical instruments to define the anomalies 

and taking cross-correlation of anomalies in various data 

channels. In the present case, therefore, a likely figure of E 

is 0.1 or so, if l/L and f/L are 0.1 and 0.04, respectively, 

where c = 0 is assumed.

The above model of prediction assessment is an oversimplification. Yet I shall be pleased if it provides a basis 

for examining the merit and limitation of earthquake 

prediction in hazard reduction problems. Some may 

criticize my above guesses of parameter values as too optimistic, and some, as too pessimistic. I would like to leave 

the final evaluation to your own judgement.

The prediction of geological hazards is doubtless an 

old and ever-new target for scientists. I recall a short note 

by L. H. Adams (1947). He pointed out origins of earthquakes (precisely, deep-focus earthquakes) as one of the 

unsolved fundamental problems of geophysics. Seismology has made notable progress since that time, and the 

mechanism of earthquake occurrence is known much better, so far as shallow origins are concerned. Now we can 

draw a fairly realistic picture of a seismic source, but the 

prediction of the earthquake occurrence is still far on the 

horizon in seismology. Several countries started their 

respective projects of earthquake prediction about ten 

years ago, indicating an ambitious effort by mankind to 

reach a new frontier. The way to the horizon is far and 

uneven, but I expect that our steps will continue and we 

will be successful someday in the near future.

REFERENCES

Adams, L. H., 1947, Some unsolved problems of geophysics: 

Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, v. 28, p. 

673-679.

Kasahara, K., 1980, Earthquake Mechanics: Cambridge, Cambridge University Press (in press).

Utsu, T., 1977, Probability in earthquake prediction: Zisin, Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan, v. 30, p. 179-185 

(in Japanese).

Keichi Kasahara 

Earthquake Research Institute 

University of Tokoyo 

Bunkyo-ku 

Tokyo, Japan 113

Earthquake Prediction 265
Urban Development in Relation to Earthquakes, 

Landslides, and Unstable Ground

I. L. Nersesov and F. F. Aptikaev

Institute of Physics of the Earth, USSR

At the beginning of this century the population of this 

globe was 1.6 billion. By the end of the century it is 

estimated that the population will reach 6 to 7 billion. 

Urban areas are growing especially rapidly. Whereas in 

1900 about 10 percent of the people in the world lived in 

urban areas, by the year 2000 half of these will live in 

cities. Even now, in many developed countries, urban inhabitants make up about three-quarters of the population.

Coincident with this trend toward urban population 

growth, we also observe a more rapid development of large 

cities. This phenomenon occurs in every climatic zone and 

in countries at different levels of development. From 1960 

to 1970, the number of cities in the tropics with populations of more than 1 million grew from 4 to 14. During the 

same period in the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics, the 

number of cities with more than 1 million inhabitants grew 

from 4 to 10, and by 1980 that number will increase to 22.

This includes not only the simple growth of preexisting 

cities and towns, but also the establishment of completely 

new urban areas. So, in the Soviet Union every year more 

than 20 new towns come into being; half of them are in 

previously uninhabited areas. The same tendency is 

observed in other countries.

Towns, transport lines, and industrial complexes take 

away from agriculture enormous areas, amounting to 

millions of hectares per year. During recent times areas 

under development of different kinds have been redoubling each 15 years. In many cases this development of new 

lands occurs spontaneously, often without necessary 

geological investigations.

Naturally, urban growth is more intensive in areas 

with the greatest increase in population, generally between 

40 degrees North and South latitude. Almost threequarters of the world's population lives in this region. And 

in this same area, geological processes are the most active. 

Thus, geologic hazards such as earthquakes, landslides, 

and mud flows annually account for serious losses of life 

and property.

It sounds paradoxical, but recent technical developments are actually capable of increasing geologic hazards if 

they are not properly applied. In fact, every year man's interference with nature increases. Already, the large-scale 

production and burning of fuel, the subsequent pollution 

of the atmosphere, the constant reduction of forest areas,

the modification of rivers and lakes as well as subsoil 

waters, which are in turn connected with the enormous 

consumption of fresh water for agriculture and industry, 

and other of man's activities have adversely affected 

geological processes. The mining industry is developing 

one and a half times faster than other branches of industry. According to estimates by experts, disturbances 

caused by opencut mining can affect an area up to ten 

times larger than the area of quarry operation itself, 

changing the hydrological regime and natural geochemical 

processes, depositing erosion products, and otherwise 

altering the landscape. Dumps and waste heaps are not 

carefully monitored, they can give rise to landslides that 

endanger neighbouring settlements. It is sufficient to 

remember the tragic case of Aberfan in South Wales. 

Likewise, demands for fresh water and for energy have 

caused a sharp rise in the number of large dams. Dam 

heights continue to increase and reservoir volumes continue to grow. Naturally, dams are erected in the places 

with large reserves of energy, mainly in mountainous 

regions where geologic hazards are high. Besides natural 

geologic hazards it is necessary to take into account the 

possibility of manmade earthquakes, connected with the 

impounding of the reservoir itself. Unfortunately, destruction has resulted from such earthquakes. The enormous 

potential danger of the failure of a large dam for 

downstream towns can scarcely be exaggerated. Moreover, 

building and development in highland areas can disturb 

slope stability, thus causing rockfalls and landslides. Often 

these phenomena are observed not only in highland 

regions, but also near rivers, lakes and coastal areas.

To reduce the losses due to geologic hazards it is 

necessary to plan future population expansion in regions 

chosen for this purpose. First, they should be areas with 

low geologic hazards, and second, areas of little use for 

agriculture. It is vital that we provide the legislation 

necessary to ensure that both the estimation of geologic 

hazards and the consideration of suitability are included in 

the development of new lands set aside for civil and industrial construction. In the Soviet Union legislation for 

protecting lands and the environment has been issued during the past 10 years to pursue just these goals —land 

recultivation after mining exploitation, control of water 

pollution, protection against soil erosion, and the development of lands useless for agriculture.

266 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
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Figure 1 Some earthquake characteristics versus magnitude 

(M): A, Maximum and mean intensity (I). B, Area (in km2) 

shaken at different levels of intensity (I). C, Maximum monetary 

loss, in dollars. D, Maximum loss of lives.

Of all geologic hazards, earthquakes can cause the 

greatest loss of life and the largest property damage. Some 

numbers can illustrate this. Landslides affecting an area of 

one square kilometre are considered serious. However, an 

earthquake with magnitude M = 7.5 on the Richter scale 

(not the largest possible) can destroy an area of as much as 

one thousand square kilometres —an area large enough to 

include a city with a population of several million. Thus 

the rapid spread of population in active earthquake belts 

has resulted in the presence of more settlements near zones 

in which destructive earthquakes may occur. Not only are 

the direct effects of seismic vibration most serious in such 

built-up areas but so also are the secondary geological 

phenomena—rockfalls, landslides, soil subsidence and soil 

liquefaction.

Earthquake hazard is especially great in large urban 

areas where there is not only a high concentration of structures and goods, but where the disruption of the normal 

course of the urban economy—water supply, gas lines, 

electricity, telephone lines, computer systems —can also 

provoke additional economic problems.

In figure 1 we have plotted some of the summary data 

on hazards in order to assess the possible strongest effects 

of earthquakes according to the following factors: (A) intensity versus magnitude (mean and maximum values); (B) 

areas shaken at different levels of intensity (mean values), 

(Q monetary losses; and (D) loss of lives (maximum 

values). Maximum estimates correspond to the effects 

observed during the five most severe earthquakes in each 

magnitude range. According to these data, the lives lost 

during the strongest earthquake could reach up to one 

million. This estimate is based upon the most unfavourable 

conditions: (1) demographic (high population density); (2) 

social (low level of economic development resulting in nonantiseismic construction), and (3) geological (unconsolidated substrate, location relative to active faults). For 

earthquakes greater than magnitude 5.5 an increase of one 

magnitude unit causes a tenfold increase in the number of 

fatalities; however, equivalent decreases in fatalities for 

earthquakes of magnitude less than 4.5 are not observed as 

a rule. Antiseismic construction could reduce these 

estimates of lives lost by a factor of ten. In urban areas 

each fatality is accompanied by about one million dollars 

loss to the economy. Furthermore, the growing concentration of material values in large cities will in the future increase both the absolute and relative values of monetary 

losses when geological catastrophes occur. The relatively 

rare occurrence of the strongest geological catastrophes, 

especially seismic ones, and the use of mean values in loss 

estimates, can result in underestimation of geologic 

hazards.

First and foremost, these examples clearly illustrate 

the practical necessity for estimates of the seismic hazard 

for new lands, and for estimates of accompanying 

geological phenomena before civil and industrial construction. The wide complex of geological and geophysical 

methods used in seismic zoning indicates the breadth and 

importance of this technique. Seismic zoning includes 

estimating the danger not only from vibration but from 

other geological phenomena as well—creep, landslides, 

snow slides, flash floods, and soil deformation.

Seismic zoning as a complex geological-geophysical 

method has been under development in the Soviet Union 

since 1930 (Seismic Zoning of the USSR, 1978 [trans. 

1980]). The earliest seismic zoning maps were made at a 

scale of 1:2.5 million. This scale is still being used. Every 

10 to 15 years these maps are revised on the basis of new 

experimental data and further development of the zoning 

method. In addition to seismic intensity estimates, maps 

that were completed in 1978 include possible strong earthquake zones, probability of different magnitudes, and the 

mean isoseismal lines for large earthquakes. These maps 

show the isoseismal areas up to intensity 9 (fig. 2A). 

Higher intensities may occur in source zones and these 

areas should be excluded from areas for development (fig. 

2B). As general seismic danger estimates our general 

seismic zoning maps receive government approval and are 

the legislative basis for all planning, design and building 

organizations of the State.

Urban Development and Earthquakes 267
Figure 2 ^4, General seismic zoning map of Central Asia showing intensity zones. B, Detailed seismic zoning map of southeast part of 

Central Asia showing seismogenic faults.

In the Soviet Union, legal codes regulate detailed investigations of local conditions: engineering geology; local 

tectonics; geodetic estimates of small scale crustal deformation; hydrogeology; soil characteristics and their influence on seismic vibration. Investigations of this kind are 

called "seismic microzonation."

268 Resources for the Twenty-first Century

However, in many cases of civil and industrial development, general zoning cannot answer questions about 

geologic hazards with the required accuracy, nor can 

microzonation, which provides information on a small 

area of only local interest. For these reasons special 

methods for more detailed estimations of geologic hazards
are being developed. This large-scale detailing is necessary 

for large hydrotechnical projects, nuclear power plants, 

urban design, and long-term planning of new land developments. This new direction in planning is called "detailed 

seismic zoning."

Thus, engineering seismology investigations for 

specific building sites naturally separate into two 

types — detailed seismic zoning and seismic microzonation. 

The first is aimed at investigation of seismic events, the 

second at the influence of local conditions upon seismic effects. While microzonation in the Soviet Union already has 

a long tradition, detailed seismic zoning work has only 

begun. Currently a special commission is developing 

recommendations to implement this technique.

The basic principles of detailed seismic zoning are

1. For seismically active areas detailed seismic zoning is obligatory and is based on data plotted on 

the general seismic zoning map.

2. Maps of detailed seismic zoning are overlaid on 

topographic base maps with scales from 1:200,000 

up to 1:1,000,000. Engineering geology maps may 

be more detailed. The mapping scale depends on 

the level of hazard. The size of the mapped area 

depends on specific conditions, but as a rule a 

mapped area will include a radius of 50 to 100 

kilometers from the building site.

3. Selection of the building site and estimation of 

possible seismic forces affecting this site are made 

on the basis of both detailed seismic zoning and 

microzonation. Site selection is also based on 

estimates of geologic hazards of non-vibration 

character.

Detailed seismic zoning is carried out by using different scientific methods to obtain the needed data. Those 

data are then examined in an integrated fashion, and on 

this basis, the final conclusions — including earthquake 

predictions if possible —are drawn about the geologic 

hazards of the region.

Seismological methods, both macroseismic and instrumental, are used to determine the distribution of events 

in time and space, the nature of focal mechanism, the maximum magnitude and intensity, the wave attenuation and 

estimates of the probable characteristics of seismic 

motions.

Geological methods are used to estimate the places of 

possible earthquakes, their magnitude and focal mechanism, and to determine places unfavourable for use 

because of geological conditions.

Engineering geology is used to identify locations with 

high geologic hazards, such as landslides and rockfalls, 

and to estimate the specific effect upon construction of 

materials beneath the site.

Correlations between seismic activity and geophysical 

parameters are used to find the places of possible earthquake origin. In addition, geophysical methods are used to 

investigate geological structures.

EXPLANATION

\ 

O - 2 V - 3

-4

Figure 3 Expected predominant period of acceleration for 

California earthquakes: 1. Solid circle, high sensitivity station. 2. 

Open circle, strong motion station. 3. Solid line, isoline of 

periods. 4. Dashed line, main faults.

Urban Development and Earthquakes 269
0 100 200 300 400 500 STATUTE MILES 

III I

I I 

100 200 300 400 NAUTICAL MILES

Figure 4 Maximum intensities experienced through the 48 conterminous States of the United States from 1928 through 1973 (from R. 

J. Brazee, 1976).

Geodetic observations are used to estimate recent 

crustal movements and the tectonic strain field.

Finally, the basic results of detailed seismic zoning investigations are summarized on four types of maps, which 

must show the probability ranking of all the mapped 

values:

1. Tectonic map showing the various seismogenic 

structures and epicentral areas.

2. Engineering geology map.

3. Map of expected seismic intensity.

4. Map of expected seismic motion characteristics.

In addition to these final maps, working maps compiled during a detailed investigation show different 

geological and geophysical characteristics of the area such 

as its geomorphology, epicenters, and isoseismal lines of 

former earthquakes. Working maps show the basic data 

used in preparing the final zoning maps.

Within the bounds of joint Soviet-American work on 

earthquake prediction we have together studied the 

development of detailed seismic zoning and have investigated methods for quantitative estimation of seismic 

motion. The essence of this latter approach is its assessment of quantitative characteristics in specific places, 

using both instrumental records of strong and weak local 

earthquakes and those of distant shocks (Aptikaev and 

others, 1976, 1979).

As an example we show some results for California. 

Figure 3 is a map of predominant periods of acceleration 

during local earthquakes in California. Any other 

parameters of strong motion, such as peak amplitude or 

relative duration, could be mapped in the same manner. By 

comparing a map of general seismic zoning with a map of 

quantitative characteristics it is possible to see clearly some 

difference in motion within the same intensity zones. Such

270 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
125° 115° 105'

25'

115'

Figure 5 Preliminary map of expected horizontal acceleration (expressed as percent of gravity) in rock with 90 percent probability of 

not being exceeded in fifty years. Maximum acceleration within the 60 percent contour along the San Andreas and Garlock faults in 

California is 80 percent of gravity (using the attenuation curves of Schnabel and Seed, 1973). The 48 conterminous States of the United 

States (from S. T. Algermissen and D. M. Perkins, 1976).

knowledge of seismic motion characteristics allows engineers to take into account local peculiarities of vibration 

and to choose for designs employing the most earthquakeresistant construction methods. We have so far described 

in a general way the seismic zoning methods used in the 

Soviet Union.

The American school of seismology, geology, 

geophysics and earthquake engineering has made valuable 

contributions to methods of earthquake-hazard estimation. Most zoning maps in the United States, just as in the 

Soviet Union, show the expected seismic intensity (fig. 4). 

These maps are usually based on historic data and on fault 

tectonics (fig. 5). U.S. microzonation includes mapping of 

the existing or potential geologic hazards at a given location and of the ground amplification factor. To estimate 

quantitative characteristics of seismic motion the United 

States has also developed the world's best strong-motion 

array.

The U.S. Government initiated and has supported 

major research in earthquake-hazard estimation and earthquake prediction. At the time of its passage, the enabling

Field Act was a great event, and not only for America. By 

1978 Congress had also approved the Earthquake Hazard 

Reduction Program. Generally speaking, this program is 

similar to the Soviet national program. It further indicates 

that such programs are the only true way to solve this 

dangerous problem and thus save thousands of lives.

REFERENCES CITED

Algermissen, S. T., and Perkins, D. M., 1976, A probabilistic 

estimate of maximum acceleration in rock in the contiguous 

United States: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

76-416.

Aptikaev, F. F., Gladysheva, G. S., Iton, Dzh., and Nersesov,

1. L., 1979, Sviaz' parametrov seismicheskikh kolebanii pri 

sil'nykh i sliabykh zemletriaseniiakh [Connection of 

parameters of seismic vibrations for strong and weak earthquakes]: Sb. sov.-amer. rabot po prognozu zemletriasenii, t.

2.. kn.2.

Aptikaev, F. F., Iton, Dzh., Nikolaev, A. V., and Sedova, E. N., 

1979, Korelliatsiia parametrov seismicheskikh kolebanii pri 

mestnykh i udalennykh zemletriaseniiakh [The correlation of

Urban Development and Earthquakes 271
parameters of seismic vibration for local and remote earthquakes]: Sb. sov.-amer. rabot po prognozu zemletriasenii, 

t.2, kn.2.

Aptikaev, F. F., Matthiesen, R. B., Negmatullaev, S. Kh., 

Nersesov, I. L., Rojahn, C., and Uelles R. E., 1976, 

Prognoz seismicheskogo dvizhenie grunta [Forecasting 

seismic movement of the Earth. A collection of SovietAmerican works on earthquake prediction]: Sb sov.-amer. 

rabot po prognozu zemletriasenii, t.l, kn. 2., DushanbeMoskva, Izd. Donish.

Brazee, R. J., 1976, Final report on analysis of earthquake intensities with respect to attenuation, magnitude and rate of 

recurrence: NOAA Technical Memorandum EDS NGSDS, 

Boulder, Colorado.

Schnabel, P. D., and Seed, H. B., 1973, Acceleration in rock for 

earthquakes in the Western United States: Seismological 

Society of America Bulletin, v. 63, p. 501-516.

Seismicheskoe raionirovanie SSSR, Izd. Nauka moskva, 1978, 

[Seismic Zoning of the USSR (translated from Russian). 

Jerusalem, 1980.]

Presented by:

I. L. Nersesov

Institute of Physics of the Earth

Academy of Science, USSR

B. Bruzinskaya 10

Moscow D242, USSR

272 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Geologic Hazards and Man

John R. Rapp

U.S. Geological Survey

In contrast to the sensationalism and spectacle of a 

sudden and rare event such as a volcanic eruption or earthquake, the slower type of hazard, such as a ground subsidence, usually results from phenomena that proceed 

without publicity, especially in the early phases. It occurs 

very slowly over a long period of time or involves such a 

small area that few are affected by it. However, increasing 

development of water, oil, gas and minerals to meet the 

needs of a progressively more industrialized world has increased the interest in the land subsidence that often results 

from such development. This interest was reflected in such 

meetings as the Second International Symposium of Land 

Subsidence held at Anaheim, California, in 1976. In contrast to the natural event such as the eruption or the quake, 

subsidence can be related to or caused by man's activities. 

This distinction—natural or manmade—is used primarily 

for the purpose of discussion, because the causes (natural 

or man) are becoming more and more interrelated.

Land subsidence is the sinking of the land surface 

resulting from such causes as withdrawal of water, oil or 

gas, dewatering of organic deposits, hydrocompaction, 

removal of material by mining, and collapse in carbonate 

rock areas.

Because of the large land areas involved, subsidence 

resulting from removal of water, oil, and gas is best 

known. More areas are being affected by development of 

these supplies, and in addition, through instrumentation, 

we are being made more aware of the increasing number of 

areas affected. Some of the more notable areas are San 

Joaquin Valley and Long Beach in California, U.S.A.; 

Mexico City, Mexico; Bangkok, Thailand; and Venice, 

Italy.

Caving that occurs in mined areas is in response to 

removal of rock or minerals without subsequent replacement. The subsidence may occur as a planned event as

mining progresses, or it may occur haphazardly as collapse 

following mining, when the overburden support fails due 

either to natural causes or to man's activities. Although 

karst conditions (solution openings) in carbonate rocks 

may be common in an area, and some caving may occur 

naturally, many of man's activities such as construction 

and agriculture can trigger collapse. Considerable progress 

is being made in detecting and avoiding these hazardous 

features using geophysical, remote sensing, and other 

techniques.

Although subsidence causes considerable property 

damage and loss, it can be put to beneficial use by development of intentional, controlled subsidence. For example, 

surface reservoirs can thus be constructed for storage of 

water for municipal, industrial, and recreational purposes. 

Underground cavities may serve as subsurface storage 

facilities.

Techniques are being developed for determining 

accurately the amount of subsidence and for predicting 

subsidence under varying conditions. These techniques 

provide options for avoiding, reducing, or otherwise 

controlling the effects. Similarly, progress in the development of prediction techniques for natural hazards is encouraging. Hopefully, through these various kinds of 

techniques, we will continue to move forward not only in 

developing a warning system for evacuation but also in actually controlling to some extent the magnitude of these 

events by methods such as recharge or discharge of fluid.

John R. Rapp 

5121 Swift Court 

Fairfax, Virginia 22030

Geologic Hazards and Man 273
Panel Discussion

R. Wesson (USGS): Dr. Fiske suggested that in the case of St. Vincent, the 

situation was handled in a more orderly 

fashion because a smaller group of scientists was involved. The extent to which information can be controlled depends not 

only on having just a small group, but certainly on political and societal conditions 

in various countries.

In the case of Southern California 

there is no way to control the number of 

scientists viewing an earthquake. I pose 

the question to the panel, how should information be handled in this era where we 

are moving toward earthquake prediction, 

but we don't have the routine capability to 

predict an earthquake? How open should 

we be with the public in saying what we do 

know and don't know?

R. Fiske (Smithsonian Institution): It

is far easier to control information on 

small tropical islands than in Southern 

California. The scientists on St. Vincent 

transmitted information only to the 

government, not to the media. By having 

good communications with only one focal 

point, I think that the situation was handled very well. Haven't they set up an 

orderly reporting process in California?

R. Wallace (USGS): Yes and no. The 

system is intricate. We are told by our 

sociologist friends that if there is not a

constant flow of information from 

reliable sources, the vacuum will tend to 

be filled by rumors. How to release complex information and to express the inadequate state of our knowledge is of continuing concern. The media tend to select 

only certain parts of the full story, commonly the sensational or controversial 

parts. Earth scientists are delighted that 

sociologists have entered the earthquake 

field to study the response of people to 

news. These studies should help guide us 

so that we can serve society better.

K. Kasahara (Japan): The role of 

journalism in this matter is doubtless important; therefore our scientists have continued their effort to gain the journalists' 

confidence and to insure a moderate 

response to critical seismic information. 

In this respect, the Coordinating Committee for Earthquake Prediction is used to 

release the necessary data promptly to the 

press, so that they may understand and 

report correctly the points of the Committee's announcement. Thus the three essential groups —scientists, governmental 

staffs, and journalists —are developing a 

basis for successful cooperation in this 

field.

A. Giesecke (Peru): There are problems that arise in the prediction of 

tsunamis. You can tell what is going to

happen from something that is known. If 

you have an earthquake causing the 

tsunami then you can predict the time. It 

is much more certain. The Civic Alert 

Warning System [in Peru] has been in 

existence for many years and is being used 

continually. Seismologists turn information over to the navy to get ships offshore, 

etc. Unless you carefully control information going out to the public, you can start 

a needless evacuation. It happened to 

them in the port of Callao. They do not 

have absolutely free press, but there is no 

censorship in the area of earthquakes. 

They give more credibility to psychic interpretation than scientific.

I. L. Nersesov (USSR): The possibility of prediction is not too advanced. 

There is little experience in this complicated problem.

R. Wesson: It is relatively easy to 

arouse people concerning earthquakes 

and volcanic eruptions because they are 

sudden and rare events. There are many 

geologic hazards that over the long run 

may cause quite significant economic 

losses. Examples of this would be landslides, ground subsidence, expansive soils.

Because of the sensationalism associated with these rare but very publicityprone events, are we placing enough emphasis on some of the slower-type 

hazards?

274 Resources for the Twenty-first Century

Geologic Factors and the Environment

£1^1-381 EI42-0BI EI42-38I

__tEi^i-ee EH i-38) Ei42-eei £1*2-301

86FEB74 C S2S-56/EJ4I-57 N S25-54/E142-04 OSS R SUN EL48 R28W ]B9-785^-N-l-N-D-2L NR5R CRTS E-i563-23536-^ 01

Cooper Creek, Queensland, Australia: Landsat image during wet season showing creek in flood. Used for classification of terrain types 

on basis of vegetation and topography.

276 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Environmental Problems and Geoscientific 

International Cooperation

Martin O. C. Kursten

Director, Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe 

Federal Republic of Germany

DEFINITION

Environment can be defined as the equilibrium of 

natural conditions surrounding and including man. 

Anything that affects this balance is regarded as an environmental problem.

Environmental problems can be man-made, such as 

the effects of large-scale mining and industrialization, but 

they can also be of natural origin, such as geohazards or 

certain types of changes in climate or sea-level.

It is interesting to note that the awareness of environmental problems is much more pronounced in industrialized regions of the world than in the developing 

countries. In a sense, the consciousness of the environment 

is at least partly typical of societies living in a state of luxury and achievement. This, however, is quite understandable, since there is little room for concern about environmental problems in societies where the three basic 

needs of mankind are missing: food, shelter, and clothing. 

These thoughts could lead us to the conclusion that at least 

for the moment environmental considerations can be put 

aside when the development of the Third World is concerned—and frequently, they are.

All the same, scientists and politicians alike share a 

responsibility for the future of mankind, and, therefore, 

wherever a development is initiated it should be analyzed 

not only with regard to its immediate economic effect but 

also with regard to its long-term environmental implications. If we really want developed societies in the world, 

and this inevitably means industrialized, technically 

developed societies, then we must foresee their course of 

development and try to avoid mistakes which have been 

made and are apparent in today's world. This, in my view, 

is the reason why we should and must consider the environmental aspects in geoscientific international cooperation.

REGIONAL AND SCIENTIFIC ASPECTS

The set of environmental problems which we encounter in the world depends to a large degree on the type 

of climate and on the surface configuration. We only need 

to follow the geographers' well-known systematic division.

In this context, only brief examples of environmental 

problems typical for individual climate zones can be given:

The jungle areas of the humid tropics are particularly 

sensitive to deforestation. Only one year is needed to completely leach out the soil of a deforested tropic region and 

remove all organic particles from it. It takes years to 

recuperate. The extraordinary speed of the leaching process in the tropics is a fact of which economic geologists 

must be intensely aware when planning new mining sites in 

such regions. The geographic factors to which most of us 

have become used in the temperate regions cannot be 

transferred to the tropics. The special dynamics and the 

speed of natural processes in the humid tropics cannot be 

overemphasised. Unfortunately our professional training 

pays little attention to this problem as yet.

The semi-arid regions are affected much more than the 

rest of the world by even the slightest variations in rainfall. 

They are, indeed, marginal habitats of man. Everything 

which can influence the amount of rainfall is of vital importance in these regions, and any dynamic environmental 

system in which rainfall is one of the components has a 

basic environmental impact. Excessive use of firewood, 

changes in the agricultural system, large-scale mining 

operations, especially those producing dust and thereby 

changing the reflection index of the surroundings, all are 

potential triggers influencing the amount and the distribution of rainfall. Once set into motion, the system can move 

for a long time and take in very large areas before it 

becomes stable again by reaching a new balance. Impressive examples of this are known from the Sahel Zone.

Environmental problems in temperate regions, where 

most of the industrialized countries are located, are wellknown to all of us. Probably the most serious problems 

here are not the localized ones, threatening for instance the 

recreational value of a particular landscape or a specific 

animal species, but the global ones resulting from the 

large-scale use of fossil fuels. The effects of even the 

slightest change in the composition of the atmosphere, 

especially its CO2 and O2 contents, will be felt worldwide 

and they are bound to have very severe impacts if the scientific forecasts are correct.

Some very important regions have one thing in common: they are not inhabited by man. These are the oceans,

Environmental Problems and International Cooperation 277
the arctic regions, the deserts and very high-altitude mountain ranges. They deserve special attention since their role 

in the environmental dynamics is essentially one of 

stabilization, filtration and purification.

These examples may suffice for emphasising the particular importance of the climatic and regional background 

to the environment.

There is another type of environmental concern, 

which —so to speak —comes from within the environment: 

the wide range of geohazards. Geohazards have had a 

greater destructive impact on man than all the other types 

of environmental dangers together. I must emphasise the 

tense "have had." The various types of geohazards are well 

known: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, landslides, 

flooding. Of these, earthquakes and volcanic eruptions 

cannot be prevented or controlled to a significant degree. 

Great efforts are being made, however, in unravelling and 

understanding their genesis and thereby helping to accurately forecast these disasters. Accurate forecasting is 

the best way to minimize their consequences. Great progress has been made in this direction and major efforts are 

still underway. The investigations along the San Andreas 

Fault employing drilling programs and structural and 

geophysical studies are an impressive example. The success 

of Chinese geologists in accurately forecasting a major 

earthquake, in at least one instance, has proved that there 

are valid tools and methods available. They are far from 

perfection and completeness as yet, as we all know. But 

even the limited progress is a challenge to the geoscientific 

community, a challenge with good prospects for success.

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION

International geoscientific projects are being initiated 

worldwide at an increasing rate. The great majority of 

them are concerned with the application of geoscientific 

tools to development. Accordingly, the majority of these 

projects are in countries of the Third World. Prospecting 

and exploring for minerals, fossil fuels, and water in 

hitherto unknown and developing regions is the aim of 

most of these projects. To a lesser extent, projects aimed at 

geotechnical safety are also being undertaken, such as 

geoscientific studies in connection with foundation work 

for large structures, road, railway and harbour construction. Environmental studies are few and far apart. The increasing number, size, and complexity of international 

geoscientific projects make it desirable —or even imperative—to pay more attention to these problems.

Probably one of the best-known examples of an international geoscientific effort aimed at preserving evidence 

of cultural heritage was the Abu Simbel project. Few people of that time spoke of the environment, but the project 

clearly served an environmental goal. The driving force 

behind it was the common responsibility of man towards

culture and history. The success of the project also paid 

tribute to the men who initiated and executed it.

The great majority of projects, however, serve more 

practical goals of immediate economic interest. It is only 

too often that these immediate economic interests override 

the more cautious and considerate approach. Environmental consequences are being overlooked or neglected. 

Mostly, this is by no means due to willful neglect. It is just 

the consequence of a rather narrow-minded approach. 

Broader and long-term aspects are underrepresented and 

all of us have a lot to learn about how to include them in 

our planning. There are many published examples of unexpected environmental damage due to human activity, and 

the more we learn about them, the better for our own 

work. To give you a recent example from Germany: for 

many years, some cement works in Germany have added 

wastes from the Meggen zinc mine to their raw-materials 

feed because they had found that it improved the reactions 

in their rotary kilns. Nobody suspected any harm until by 

chance it was found that in the vicinity of these cement 

works an unusually and even dangerously high concentration of thallium had developed. The culprit was finally 

discovered by a painstaking search for the source of this 

dangerous element: the ores from Meggen contain about 

300 ppm thallium as opposed to a normal background of 1 

to 2 ppm. In the reactions in the rotary kiln the thallium 

was set free in gaseous form and constituted 3 percent of 

the gases emitted from the kilns. This thallium was then 

precipitated in the area around the cement works. After 

the damage had been discovered, large quantities of 

vegetables and other agricultural products had to be 

destroyed. The exact processes and reactions of the 

thallium in this case are still not completely known. This is 

a good example of how environmental problems can 

develop, and it is by learning that we can prevent them in 

the future — learning beyond the immediate goals and 

aspects of a project. Case histories are the best teachers.

It is important to develop an understanding of environmental problems in all scientists. Environmental considerations must become an integral part of project planning and execution. At this point, however, I should inject 

a note of warning: sometimes, environmental concern 

leads its promoters to overreaction. The real skill consists 

in balancing the various interests contained in a given 

project.

I feel that there is a difference between the environmental threat of a municipal waste-dump and the 

possible impact connected with the final storage of radioactive wastes. The treatment and management of the latter 

can clearly be considered as one of the major challenges to 

all scientists. It is interesting to note that the degree of 

public concern about the final storage of radioactive 

wastes varies considerably from one country to the next, 

and the differences are apparent not only between in278 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
dustrialized and developing countries but also among the 

industrialized countries themselves. This may have several 

reasons, but one aspect of the picture is certainly the way 

in which these matters are handled by the politicians. It appears that in a climate of patiently consistent and open information policy and free discussion there are much better 

chances for achieving a balance of views than where there 

is suspicion of secrecy, or of only partial release of information. We as geoscientists should accept this challenge by 

openly stating what is known to us already and where further research is needed before the question of safety can 

finally be answered. And, again, I am convinced that international cooperation in geoscientific research not only 

helps in speeding up the solution of scientific problems but 

also and at the same time with no extra cost serves the 

goals of technology transfer, mutual motivation and 

education.

Finally, I want to make a plea for intensified geoscientific research on an international basis aimed at

understanding the above-mentioned geohazards. Here 

concerted efforts of the international geoscientific community are a necessity in order to answer the challenge. 

There are few research areas where scientific progress can 

be of more benefit to the lives of so many people. I am 

convinced that by the year 2000 the processes governing 

geohazards will be largely understood and that ways and 

means can be found to better forecast these events. There 

is a need for more international geoscientific programs 

dealing with environmental problems on a multilateral and 

bilateral basis than are in operation at present.

Martin O. C. Kursten

Direktor und Professor

Bundesanstalt fur Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe

D-3000 Hannover 51 (Buchholz)

Postfach 510153

Federal Republic of Germany

Environmental Problems and International Cooperation 279
Construction Materials and Ground Water: 

Important Subjects for Applied Geological 

Research in Developing Countries

B. P. Hageman

Director

Geological Survey of the Netherlands

A major part of the development potential of a country, and this applies particularly to the developing countries, is the optimal use of natural resources. Traditionally, 

this means useful minerals and (or) raw materials for 

energy (coal, gas, oil). These resources determine to a great 

extent a certain but not necessarily a permanent level of 

prosperity.

Another type of natural resources may, however, contribute to a more balanced minimum level of existence. 

These resources include raw materials for housing, ground 

water for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes, 

and also areas and locations that can be earmarked for 

specific agricultural or industrial purposes.

In view of the nature of the deposits in question, 

mainly the "soft rocks," attention must be primarily focused on delta, river, estuarine, and coastal areas. As a 

rule, such areas are the centers of development and prosperity as a result of their favorable connections with the 

sea and with the hinterland, their fertility, the presence of 

ground water, and a level topography, which make them 

potentially suitable for connecting roads and cause them to 

become prime areas of settlement. This means also a rapidly developing economic infrastructure with a high 

population density, increasing density of industrial plants 

and other structures, and thus a large demand on the 

ground water potential and a heavy demand for surface 

materials such as sand, gravel and clay for construction. 

Because of the resulting ground-water draw-down, excavation, and construction, the soft-rock complex, with its 

water circulation partly fed from the surface, is extremely 

vulnerable to pollution.

During initial development, sufficient material will be 

available and areas for building can be easily indicated. 

This may produce, however, a trend which can be corrected or rectified only at great expense and with advanced 

techniques. The problems could have been avoided by 

planning based on geological patterns. As an example, 

delta areas generally have a poor carrying capacity as foundation for structures. A geological study may reveal a 

number of covered former riverbeds, filled with sand (figs. 

1 and 2). These sandy tracts are ideally suited for roads,

with low cost for construction and maintenance. The same 

sandy tracts may widen towards the coast, thus offering 

much better possibilities for building than the interjacent 

clayey or peaty areas (fig. 1).

On the other hand, such sandy tracts, when intersecting the coastline, may cause sliding down of sea 

defenses by scouring, unless the danger is recognized in 

time and adequate measures can be taken. This shows the

EXPLANATION

...-....

::::;:;;:: FOSSJI gullies

Recent gullies

Profile N-S

Coastal structures

Figure 1 A simplified example of a geological pattern in a 

coastal plain.

280 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
close relation between geological and soil mechanics 

aspects (fig. 1, sectors a).

Because of low stands of the sea during the preceding 

glacials —10,000 years ago the sea level was about 60 

meters lower than today—the erosion base was lower and 

subsequently in many cases coarse material was accumulated in lower river courses and coastal plains. 

Therefore in many sedimentary coastal plains, these coarse 

deposits with high bearing capacity are to be found at 

depths from 5 to 25 meters below the present surface. In 

such coastal plains this layer mostly forms the base for pilings for buildings and other structures. However, the surface of this layer is irregular either by origin or by later 

marine erosion, sometimes with differences in elevation of 

ten meters or more over short distances (fig. 2). This again 

makes a great difference in suitability of locations from the 

point of view of construction difficulties, of the amount of 

concrete to be used, and of total costs —all related to 

physical characteristics as shown by geological patterns —a 

form of natural resources.

By an efficient and justified use of natural patterns, 

risks can be avoided, the repair of which requires expert 

knowledge that may not be available for many, many 

years.

The rapidly growing demand for building materials 

should preferably be met by local supplies. Because of the 

specific requirements for sand for mortar, concrete, or 

other industrial purposes, sand deposits meeting these requirements are likely to be scarce. These must be located 

and evaluated, and they should be kept accessible, in order 

to prevent their becoming unavailable by being covered by 

buildings, roads, canals, or other structures, and to avoid 

their being used for other lower-priority purposes, such as 

land fill and grade improvements at construction sites.

The same considerations can be applied to gravel and 

clay.

For ground water, it is important for hydrologists and 

geologists to determine the distribution pattern and 

amount of available water in order to exercise resource 

management directed toward continuity without adversely 

affecting the availability of water to those who need it. It is 

a fairy tale that lowering a pipe into the ground solves the 

problems of water supply, even if in some low "soft rock" 

areas water might be produced by this method.

Drawing water as a rule causes a forced movement of 

water in the subsoil to replenish the withdrawn quantities. 

This movement may be either vertical or lateral. A vertical 

movement may cause a lowering of ground-water level and 

subsequently a drying-up. Lateral movement may attract 

water of poor quality, e.g., sea water or badly polluted 

water from distant intake areas. Finally, salt water from 

greater depths may be attracted by vertical and (or) lateral 

movement.

0 -rEXPLANATION 

* Sand-filled fossil gully

8# Peat

]|fl Clay

V Sandy clay

?7o Late glacial deposit (sands)

Recent river

Late glacial surface

Figure 2 A schematic profile in the same area.

It should be realized that a subterranean basin, once 

polluted, remains practically unusable forever. For this 

reason it is imperative to handle water reservoirs with expert geological knowledge.

To make the best use of available water supplies, particularly when these are scarce, the better water should be 

primarily used for consumption, whereas water of poorer 

quality may satisfy the demand for industrial and other 

purposes.

In order to protect the ground water against pollution 

by human activities, the pattern of ground-water movement should be known and the intake areas should be protected against defilement.

It is self-evident that agricultural techniques should be 

adapted to an efficient management of ground-water supplies. Withdrawal of water, coincident with agricultural 

development, causes a lowering of the ground-water level 

that may have serious consequences for agricultural activities. For this reason, a well-considered development of 

agricultural techniques must be integrated in the total 

management of available water supplies.

In summary, it can be stated that delta areas, lower 

coastal areas and lower courses of rivers, all of which are 

mostly "soft rock" areas, contain a considerable supply of

Construction Materials and Ground Water 281
natural resources, consisting of raw materials (sand, specialized, alien techniques, and an ever-threatening loss 

gravel, clay) and the vitally important ground water. of human lives.

In addition, the above-mentioned areas should have 

clearly defined optimum localities for certain settlements, 

for roadways, harbors, and dikes, thus enabling man to 

build simpler, cheaper, and longer lasting structures. ' ' ge

Proper geological knowledge provides the essential infor- Qa, Survey of the Netherlands

mation for efficient construction and for avoiding possible Rijks Qeologische Dienst

calamities. Neglecting the possibilities offered by nature Spaarne 17

means the loss of prosperity. Neglecting the above infor- Postbus 157

mation is to choose to be increasingly dependent on highly Haarlem, The Netherlands

282 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Application of Earth Sciences to Land-use 

Problems in the United States with Emphasis on 

the Role of the U.S. Geological Survey

Donald R. Nichols

U.S. Geological Survey

"There is one final problem that is in itself not primarily of a scientific character, but is as difficult and important as the others— 

namely, the problem of communicating the results of our work to the 

public in a way that they can be understood and used.

"Taking a hard look at the work of the Geological Survey several 

months ago, I suddenly realized that the maps and reports of which we 

have been so proud— and justly I think—have been released in a form 

in which they are understandable only by other earth scientists.

"Little wonder that insufficient use has been made of our results by 

land users and land-use planners, and little wonder that the general 

public lack understanding of fundamental resource and environmental problems." (McKelvey, 1972)

INTRODUCTION

In setting the theme for her history of the U.S. 

Geological Survey (USGS), Minerals, Lands, and Geology 

for the Common Defence and General Welfare: Volume 1, 

Before 1879, Mary C. Rabbitt noted that

more than 2,000 years ago, a wise man, foretelling in 

one sense Lyell's thesis that geological processes of the 

past were the same as those now in operation, said: 

"Generations come and generations go, while the 

Earth endures forever. The sun rises and the sun goes 

down; back it returns to its place and rises there again. 

The wind blows south, the wind blows north, round 

and round it goes and returns full circle. All streams 

run into the sea, yet the sea never overflows; back to 

the place from which the streams ran they return to 

run again. * * * What has happened will happen again, 

and what has been done will be done again, and there 

is nothing new under the sun."

She goes on to say that "It has been said many times that 

history repeats itself. It only seems to repeat because there 

is a kind of uniformitarianism in human nature. Today we

know more than the men of old, and we have new problems and new ways of solving problems, but human reactions to problems have not changed" (Rabbitt, 1979, p. 5 

and 6).

I hope to show that while this theme is probably pertinent, at least for the applications of the earth sciences prior 

to 1879, it is less pertinent to the last 100 years and is far 

less so today. Although I will allude to a number of possible reasons for what I regard as a real change in human 

reactions to problems — severe depletion of energy resources, population growth and accompanying overuse of 

land, and a greater need for awareness of and concern for 

the constraints of our environment — I make no pretense of 

knowing which one, or ones, are the true cause. Nor do I 

mean to suggest that this change was abrupt, has been 

completed, or may not reverse itself in part. However, I do 

feel that humans are gradually evolving to a greater use of 

the earth sciences to reduce their suffering and to try to 

achieve a better balance with their environment. And I 

think we can attribute some real degree of that change to a 

greater knowledge of the Earth and to the efforts of earth 

scientists to interact more with people and to seek direct 

applications of their science to human problems.

Earth Sciences and Land Use 283
A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON EARTH 

SCIENCE APPLICATIONS

In reading Mrs. Rabbitt's history of the role of the 

earth sciences, the major application of geology to human 

problems in the United States prior to 1879 was largely 

limited to the identification and development of mineral 

and energy resources. There were a few exceptions, however, such as the concern of Michael Tuomey in the 

mid-1840's over the wasteful methods of developing 

mineral resources.

Tuomey apparently was also concerned about the need 

to preserve forests in mining districts. But it remained to 

George P. Marsh in 1864, as the "fountainhead of the conservation movement," to point out "that man was fast 

making the Earth uninhabitable by wanton destruction, 

waste, and neglect; he expressed the hope that geologic, 

hydrographic, and topographic surveys would supply the 

facts from which the interaction between man and nature 

might profitably be determined" (Rabbitt, 1979, p. 5). 

Marsh was joined by a number of earth scientists, notably 

Arnold Hague, J. D. Whitney, W. A. Ashburner, and F. 

V. Hayden, in providing the scientific rationale and 

fighting for designation of the Yellowstone area as a National Park. It was this effort that resulted in legislation 

which Gifford Pinchot much later claimed was "the beginning and basis of our whole National Forest system" 

(Manning, 1967, p. 164).

But perhaps it was John Wesley Powell who set the 

stage for modern applications for land use by claiming that 

"The aim of science in the West should be to prepare the 

way for settlements by classifying the land according to environmental possibilities, and the land laws should make 

this possible" (Dupree, 1957, p. 202). Although Powell was 

sharply rebuffed by the Congress in his attempt to have 

science determine the suitability of lands for irrigation as a 

basis for decisions on the development of the West, his efforts stimulated the later concept of Federal responsibility 

for such development and the formation of the Reclamation Survey in the USGS and subsequently as a separate 

Bureau. It was Powell who, as second Director, expanded 

the area of USGS responsibility to include the entire 

United States and initiated the first cooperative arrangement with States—to share the cost with Massachusetts of 

a map to follow the style of the National Survey (Dupree, 

1957, p. 213).

EARLY APPLICATIONS IN USGS

After Powell's resignation in 1894, the USGS returned 

to a greater emphasis on basic research and particularly on 

economic geology and water resources. Nevertheless, the 

research was "largely practical" as demonstrated by Alfred 

H. Brooks, who constructed charts to show that in 1890 

less than 1 percent of USGS publications involved applied

geology; in 1910, 98 percent of the publications were in this 

field (Manning, 1967, p. 225). For example, it was during 

C. D. Walcott's directorship that the first of a series of 

geologic and hydrologic folios of urban areas was published (e.g., Darton and Keith, 1901). The early folio 

series, published between 1894 and 1940, covered many of 

the largest metropolitan areas, including Washington, 

D.C., Chicago, and New York. Most of them, however, 

concentrated largely on basic geologic mapping, generally 

at a scale of 1:250,000; they provided little interpretation 

of data directed to the solution of land-use or environmental problems.

World War I brought a new and, until then, a unique 

application of geology in the United States — military 

geology. "In 1917, with the entry of the United States into 

the war, a geologic section of the American Expeditionary 

Force was formed under the command of Colonel A. H. 

Brooks of the U.S. Geological Survey" (Whitmore, 1954, 

p. 212). It was a small section attached to field armies for 

direct consulting services, largely involving recommendations of procedures to be followed in mining and countermining and the resolution of drainage problems attendant 

to trench warfare. The Survey's geologists were also 

heavily involved in assessing the availability of "war 

materials" and its topographers were assigned to support a 

mapping program drawn up by the Army's General Staff 

(U.S. Geological Survey, 1974, p. 18). The first major 

organizational commitment to applications other than 

resource development took place in World War II, when as 

many as 180 geologists of the USGS were assigned directly 

to a Branch of Military Geology or indirectly in support of 

military operations, largely to intelligence work (Whitmore, 1954, p. 213). Such support, which continued 

beyond the Korean War, emphasized the prediction of 

geologic conditions in inaccessible areas and their effect on 

possible military operations — an analysis of the effect of 

slope and surface materials on trafficability, location of 

construction materials, foundation conditions, water supply, construction of roads and airfields, and underground 

installations.

THE BASIS FOR PRESENT DAY APPLICATIONS

Urban Growth

With the return to peace, the energies of the United 

States were turned to construction of large developments, 

particularly in urban areas where many people had moved 

during the war and where many of the members of the 

armed services relocated. The development of large earthmoving equipment during the war provided the means for 

rapidly remolding the land surface for housing, shopping 

centers, and construction of the largest highway network 

in the world. Such development, occurring so rapidly, 

however, resulted in a myriad of problems, many of which

284 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
remain today. First was the need to locate sand, gravel, cement materials, crushed rock, and other construction 

materials to meet the heavy demand. Second was the construction of buildings and roads in geologically sensitive 

areas without regard for the geologic constraints or with 

the misapprehension that the existing technology could 

engineer for the problems. Third was the impact of increased demand on limited water supplies in many areas 

and the effects of development on the quality of surface 

and subsurface water. Fourth was the rapid exhaustion or 

preemption of readily available sources of construction 

materials. And last was the impact such heavy and rapid 

growth had on limited energy and mineral resources. The 

earth-science community responded to this rapid growth 

largely by a rapid expansion in the fields of petroleum 

geology and engineering geology.

The second major organizational commitment of the 

USGS to applications came when the U.S. Geological 

Survey established its Engineering Geology Branch in 

1948, concentrating at first on river basin studies and then 

on the location of sand and gravel deposits. A forerunner 

of these and subsequent applications was the publication in 

1953 of the Hollidaysburg quadrangle, Pennsylvania (U.S. 

Geological Survey, Engineering and Ground Water 

Branches). This pioneering work clearly demonstrated how 

interpretation of general purpose geologic maps could be 

applied to determining foundation and excavation conditions, water supply, the location of construction materials, 

and site selection for engineering works. This set the pattern for a series of projects in urban areas throughout the 

United States —Boston, Massachusetts; Washington, 

D.C.; Great Falls, Montana; Rapid City, South Dakota; 

Omaha-Council Bluffs, Nebraska-Iowa; Salt Lake City, 

Utah; Denver and Pueblo, Colorado; Seattle, Washington; 

San Francisco-Oakland, San Mateo-Palo Alto, and Los 

Angeles, California; Anchorage, Alaska; Knoxville, Tennessee; and Portland, Oregon. Although these projects 

were designed to provide large-scale maps (1:62,500 or 

larger) interpreted for engineers, each was concerned with 

other urban land-use problems. The products were intended to provide general background for more detailed 

site investigations and to encourage, by example, the 

greater use of engineering geology in urban areas (McGill, 

1964, p. 4).

In the mid '60s, a number of factors led to a change 

in emphasis of the work in the USGS and greatly stimulated related work in other parts of the earth-sciences 

community.

Geologic Hazards

A series of geologic events in the 1950's and early 

1960's emphasized the need to identify areas subject to 

geologic hazards and to increase our ability to deal with 

them either through refined engineering practices or

through wiser land-use planning and management. The explosive population growth in Los Angeles after World War 

II involved greatly increased residential development in 

hillside areas, which comprise about 60 percent of the city; 

at least two-thirds of that development occurred in the 

1950's (McGill, 1964, p. 2). A sequence of heavy rains in 

1952,1958, and 1962 resulted in severe erosion, settlement, 

and landsliding in many parts of the city, and losses were 

heavy (Yelverton, 1971, p. 76-77). These events triggered 

the adoption by the Los Angeles City Council of increasingly stringent grading codes in 1952 and again in 1962 and 

the termination of landslide insurance on hillside lots by 

the insurance industry in 1958.

The 1964 Alaska earthquake, followed by the 1971 

San Fernando earthquake, brought home to the present 

generation the tremendous forces of the Earth and the 

vulnerability of man and his structures to these forces. It 

also brought home to many geologists that the responsibility for the utility of their science is not discharged with 

the publication of a map or report. This became appallingly apparent following the Alaskan earthquake, which 

destroyed and severely damaged many structures located in 

areas delineated in a 1959 USGS Bulletin as landslides, 

slumps, or flows and prone to future failure (Miller and 

Dobrovolny, 1959). It also resulted in many geologists 

becoming involved with the reconstruction planning teams 

that recommended significant land-use changes, including 

relocation of the town of Valdez. The San Fernando earthquake also caused much damage in areas that had, or 

could have, been delineated as subject to ground failure. 

Although not mapped as such, "previous subsurface investigations revealed a ground water anomaly along the 

trend of the * * * San Fernando fault that could reasonably 

have been interpreted as a very young fault" (U.S. 

Geological Survey, 1971).

Even though much of the impetus to lessen hazard 

losses began before the earthquake, the San Fernando 

earthquake resulted in the introduction, with the involvement of many geologists, and passage of numerous bills in 

the California Legislature that have greatly increased the 

application of geology to engineering and land-use decisions. These included the seismic safety element, strong 

motion instrumentation, school siting, building records, 

hospital safety, dam safety, and Alquist-Priolo geologic 

hazards (Special Studies Zone) bills (Nichols, 1974b).

The Environmental Movement

Much of the stimulus for a great surge in the application of earth-science information was the environmental 

movement in the United States during the mid to late 

1960's that culminated in the passage of the National Environmental Policy Act by Congress in 1969 (Nichols, 

1975, p. 11, 12). This act directs all agencies of the Federal

Earth Sciences and Land Use 285
Government to "identify and develop methods and procedures which will ensure that presently unquantified environmental amenities and values are given appropriate 

consideration in decisionmaking along with economic and 

technical considerations." The most widely distributed 

publication by the USGS — "A procedure for evaluating environmental impacts" —was prepared to help guide the 

preparation of environmental impact statements (Leopold 

and others, 1971). But the National Environmental Policy 

Act was not alone. A 1973 study by the Library of Congress showed that 23 Federal departments and agencies 

were administering programs which impact on land-use 

policy and (or) planning, including at least 112 Federal 

land-oriented programs (General Accounting Office, 1977, 

p. 10). Although many related to economic and commercial development, air quality, and social benefits, more 

than half of these programs and the enabling environmental legislation required earth-science information, especially hydrologic data, for effective implementation. As 

one consequence of the environmental movement, the 

water-resources activities in the USGS have grown 

substantially and are closely geared to State and local 

government programs.

At the same time, State governments were passing a 

similar array of legislation requiring contributions from 

the earth-science community for implementation — environmental protection, coastal zone management, 

powerplant siting, defining areas of critical concern, 

resource management, mined land reclamation, water 

quality control, and seismic safety are but a few examples.

In addition to this impressive array of legislation, individuals in many other disciplines had become aware of 

the contributions geology and hydrology could make to a 

better life style in America. A particularly effective advocate was lan McHarg in his now classic book, "Design 

With Nature," which showed how environmental planning 

must involve earth-science information along with data 

more traditionally used by planners as a basis for comprehensive physical planning (McHarg, 1969). At the same 

time, professional groups such as the American Society of 

Civil Engineers, the Soil Science Society of America and 

the American Society of Agronomy (Bartelli, 1966), the 

Department of Agriculture (U.S. Department of Agriculture and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban 

Development, 1968) and others were urging parallel 

efforts.

I do not mean to imply from this discussion that the 

earth-science community sat back until forced to respond 

to legislative pressures and leadership from other 

disciplines. The geologic profession has had its own effective groups and spokesmen in Peter Flawn (1970), John 

Frye (1967), Bob Legget (1973), John McGill (1964), and 

the Association of Engineering Geologists (U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and the Department of the Interior, 1971).

RESPONSE BY THE EARTH-SCIENCE COMMUNITY

State Geological Surveys

Many State geological surveys were early advocates of 

applying earth sciences to land-use problems and were active in the design of innovative maps and reports. For example, the Illinois Geological Survey initiated an "Environmental Geology Notes" publication series in 1965 in 

which a wide range of both urban and rural land-use problems are addressed. Two of the early reports in that 

series —"An application of geologic information to land 

use in the Chicago metropolitan region" (Hackett, 1966) 

and "Geology for planning in McHenry County" (Hackett 

and McComas, 1969) —are especially noteworthy.

In 1968, the Kansas State Geological Survey began 

publication of abstracts and notes of interest in its "Environmental Geology Digest" series as a means of fostering 

communication between geologists and other earth scientists concerned with man's use of the physical environment. They also developed a method for incorporating environmental information in the planning process in any 

region by using a prototype area for data gathering and 

mapping (Hilpman and Stewart, 1968). A few selected examples from other States include

• Alabama—Environmental geology as an aid to 

growth and development in Lauderdale, Colbert 

and Franklin Counties, Alabama (Moser and 

Hyde, 1974).

• California—Urban geology; Master plan for 

California (Alfors and others, 1973).

• Colorado —The Governor's conference on environmental geology (Colorado Geological Survey, 

1970).

• Connecticut—Use of natural resource data in land 

and water planning (Hill and Thomas, 1972).

• Iowa—Resource development, land- and water-use 

management, eleven-county region, south-central 

Iowa (Iowa Geological Survey, 1973).

• Missouri—Environmental geology in town and 

country (Hayes and Vineyard, 1969).

• North Dakota—Environmental geology and North 

Dakota (Arndt, 1972).

• Oregon —Land-use geology of western Curry 

County, Oregon (Beaulieu and Hughes, 1976).

• Tennessee—Environmental geology summary of 

the Kingston Springs quadrangle, Tennessee 

(Miller, 1973).

• Texas—Approaches to environmental geology 

(Wermund, ed., 1974).

Local Government

Local government also played a role, albeit a more 

limited one. In an analysis of geology and the conduct of

286 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
local government in the United States, Jim Pendleton 

(1978, p. 7) notes that "Unfortunately, very few local 

governments have incorporated geological data in their 

land-use planning without Federal or State participation." 

This conclusion appears to be based largely on his survey 

of State and local geological agencies, which found only 25 

local governmental geological programs in the United 

States—18 of these being in California and 3 in Colorado. 

In only 6 States was it determined that local governments 

had geological staffs (Pendleton, 1978, p. 22). Although a 

number of individuals with training or degrees in geology 

work for local government, and undoubtedly were not 

counted in Pendleton's survey, it is unlikely that many of 

them function primarily as geologists. His survey also does 

not recognize the quite extensive use in some communities 

of geologic consultants both for capital improvement projects and for planning and plan implementation. In a few 

jurisdictions, notably in California, towns and cities 

received geologic assistance from higher government 

levels. For example, geologists with the county of Los 

Angeles were "contracted" by a number of jurisdictions in 

the county to assist in the preparation of safety and seismic 

safety elements of their general plans. In a talk to a group 

of planners several years ago, I noted the seeming inconsistency of some public opposition to the hiring of even 

one geologist on the staff of local government where they 

commonly employ as many as 40 planners and, in some 

jurisdictions, even more (Nichols, 1974a, p. 83).

Assuming that each community with a population of 

25,000 people or more could or should employ one or more 

geologists, Pendleton projected a potential market for between 972 and 1,894 qualified geological practitioners 

(1978, p. 203). He urges the geological profession to encourage the use of geology in the daily conduct of local 

government —a policy the USGS has long advocated. In 

fact, in cooperation with the Washington Division of 

Geology and Earth Resources, the USGS in 1979 began 

sponsorship of a geologist "circuit rider" program in which 

a geologist from the State makes scheduled trips to three 

counties in Washington to advise and assist county governments on geologic problems.

U.S. Geological Survey

As indicated earlier, the USGS has played a major role 

in applying earth sciences to land-use problems. In 1967, 

the then Director, William T. Pecora, initiated an analysis 

of USGS urban programs to evaluate how they might be 

redesigned to better support the needs for earth-science information in urban and urbanizing areas. As a result, two 

new programs were initiated in 1967 —one dealing with 

urban hydrology and one with land resource analysis. 

These were later largely incorporated into an Urban Area 

Studies (UAS) program proposed to Congress in 1970. The 

pilot study for this effort was begun January 1, 1970, in

the nine-county San Francisco Bay area in cooperation 

with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (U.S. Department of the Interior and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, 1971). Other 

urban areas in which studies were undertaken included the 

Connecticut Valley, the Greater Pittsburgh region, the 

Baltimore-Washington corridor, Fairfax County, Virginia, 

the Colorado Front Range urban corridor, the TucsonPhoenix area, and the Puget Sound region.

One of the purposes of the urban-area studies was to 

prepare as many earth-science related products as possible 

that might be of significance to urban and regional 

development and planning and to evaluate the effectiveness of each. These studies have resulted in more than 

600 maps and reports that deal with a wide range of land 

development problems associated with both geologic and 

hydrologic hazards, resource development, and engineering constraints. Although many of these are technical 

reports that serve as a basis for other more refined interpretations intended for planners and public officials, most 

are presented in formats and language that can be 

understood by the intelligent layman.

The reports range from relatively simple basic-data 

maps, such as geologic maps, maps showing active faults, 

margins of marshlands, or boundaries of water and sewer 

service areas, to more sophisticated interpretive reports 

dealing with topics such as regional slope stability and 

water-quality management. Other products include maps 

showing flood-prone areas, archeological sites, and landslides; maps identifying erosional and depositional provinces; reports on topics such as criteria for hydrologic 

design of storm-drainage facilities, benthic faunal surveys, 

climatography, and pollution potential of land-based 

waste disposal.

Two reports illustrate the scope and intent of the 

urban area studies. One is a study titled "Quantitative 

land-capability analysis" (Laird and others, 1979) which 

was prepared under contract with the Association of Bay 

Area Governments (ABAG), a regional planning agency, 

as a part of the San Francisco Bay region study. It 

describes a method of evaluating land-use proposals by 

estimating the costs that are related to overcoming geologic 

and hydrologic constraints. Although the method is still 

being tested, it appears flexible enough to be adapted to 

other regions where geologic and hydrologic problems are 

important to land-use decisions.

The other report is titled, "Nature To Be Commanded 

..." (Robinson and Spieker, 1978), which is the first half 

of a quotation attributed to Sir Francis Bacon — "Nature to 

be commanded must be obeyed." By now, I hope, you may 

have had a chance to see this report which uses six examples across the United States to demonstrate some of 

the ways that earth-science information can be applied effectively to urban planning and decisionmaking.

Earth Sciences and Land Use 287
An evaluation of the San Francisco Bay Region Environment and Resource Planning Study (SFBRS) (Arthur 

D. Little, Inc., 1975, p. 5-3, 5-4), conducted on contract 

for the Department of Housing and Urban Development 

(HUD), found that the program has

• "Raised the level of consciousness about natural 

hazards in the user community.

• Begun to bridge the communication gap and improve information transfer among scientists, planners, and decisionmakers.

• Developed new, more detailed earth-science data 

for a complex geological area larger than Connecticut.

• Expanded the focus and content of earth-science 

studies in other urban areas of the nation.

• Strongly influenced the organizational structure of 

USGS, making it more responsive to data application needs of others.

• Strengthened the environmental requirements of 

and responses to HUD programs in the Bay Area.

• Improved the capability of ABAG in environmental assessment, regional planning, and decisionmaking.

• Improved the capability of county and local planning agencies to perform environmental 

assessments and land use planning, and to prepare 

codes and ordinances.

• Experimented with new methods of data presentation and begun the development of a common 

language among scientists, planners, and users of 

resources."

The report provided a number of recommendations 

for maps and reports remaining to be completed and for 

future studies, such as

• "certain cartographic design improvements,

• reference direct applications to land-use ordinances and legislation,

• reports and maps should include a "how-to-use-it" 

section,

• increase publicity upon the release of reports,

• prepare an illustrated manual about the project informing the reader about earth sciences as a subject, about the implications of hazards and risks, 

and about the availability of alternative course of 

action [Author's note: Such a "manual" is now in 

press],

• explore preparation of model land-use ordinances 

based on the earth-science problems experienced in 

the Bay Area,

• transfer similar programs to other regions" (p. 5-9 

to 5-11).

A much more in-depth study on the use of the earthscience products of SFBRS by W. J. Kockelman is now 

underway. Kockelman, in interviews with 99 cities (1975),

8 counties (1976), and 7 selected regional agencies in the 

Bay area (1979), found that

• "Three-fourths of the cities, all 8 counties, and all 7 

regional agencies had planning staffs who were 

familiar with or had made use of SFBRS products.

• More than half of the cities, all 8 counties, and all 7 

regional agencies had planning documents that 

referenced SFBRS products.

• Eighty to ninety percent of the almost 100 SFBRS 

products were used at least once and one was used 

67 times for various city, county, and regional 

planning activities.

• The most widely used map products were smallscale, covered a wide area, and dealt with hazards.

• To ensure more effective use of earth-science information, future studies should include: (1) monitoring and analyzing new State and Federal laws or 

regulations and emerging critical issues so as to anticipate and respond to regional earth-science information needs; (2) creating a users' advisory 

committee to help identify critical issues and needs; 

(3) providing engineering interpretations and landand water-use capability ratings to make earthscience information more readily usable; (4) giving 

priority to areas impacted by development; (5) providing earth-science information at the larger scale 

and greater detail commonly used and needed by 

regional agencies; (6) releasing earth-science information faster and according to a formal distribution pattern; and (7) providing educational, advisory, and review services in connection with any 

earth-science information product designed for 

planners and decisionmakers" (Kockelman, 1979, 

p. 3).

The study by Arthur D. Little, Inc., (1975, p. 93) concluded that

• "We firmly believe that the works accomplished 

thus far by SFBRS should be continued and that the 

momentum generated should not be abandoned. 

Much remains to be done to strengthen the fledgling impact of earth sciences in land use and environmental planning decisions. We do not wish to 

sound like Cassandras, but the consequences of 

not following through can be more costly—in 

terms of dollars, lives, and resources wasted—than 

the costs of fulfilling the potential of this concept. 

However, for the full potential to be realized, 

whether in the San Francisco region or elsewhere,

the concept needs more institutional commitment * * * »

That need had already been recognized by the USGS 

when then Director Vincent E. McKelvey formed the Office of Land Information and Analysis (LIA) in 1975. LIA 

was created to

"provide the information needed to evaluate alternative uses of the land and provide a sound basis for 

decisions on land use. LIA's function is to link the core

288 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
disciplines of the Survey's separate divisions to produce reports and maps designed especially to be readily 

understandable and usable by planners and decisionmakers having little or no training in the earth 

sciences. It marks the Survey's recognition of the 

peculiar needs of land-use planners and resource 

managers, and it serves as a model for the broader, less 

compartmented kind of organization the Survey must 

expect to become" (Menard, 1979, p. 2).

The five programs in LIA include the Earth Sciences 

Applications (ESA) Program, the Earth Resources Observation Systems (EROS) Program, the Geography Program, the Resources and Land Investigations (RALI) 

Program and the Environmental Impact Analysis (EIA) 

Program.

The ESA Program, incorporating urban area studies 

and land resource analysis, was established to direct and 

coordinate multidisciplinary Survey projects specially concerned with disseminating earth-sciences information to 

land-resource decisionmakers in readily usable forms. The 

program's objectives are threefold: (1) to interpret, 

demonstrate, and encourage the use of earth-science information for land-resource decisionmaking through specially 

designed projects and interaction with, and technical 

assistance to, users; (2) to stimulate development of 

multidisciplinary studies in the Survey through coordination and integration of activities; (3) to serve as the focal 

point within the Survey for multidisciplinary studies in 

support of the work of other Federal, State, and local 

agencies.

The EROS Program, a Department of the Interior 

program administered by the Geological Survey, was 

created in 1966 to apply remote-sensing techniques to the 

inventory, monitoring, and management of resources. To 

meet its primary objective, the EROS Program conducts 

research and training in the interpretation and application 

of remotely sensed data and provides remotely sensed data 

for purchase by scientists, resource planners and 

managers, and the public.

Although the USGS had a Division of Geography as 

early as 1881 (Manning, 1967, p. 94), the position of Chief 

Geographer was unfilled for many years and it was not until 1968 that what is now called the Geography Program 

was defined. Currently one of that Program's principal objectives is to provide land-use and land-cover maps of the 

entire United States at a scale of 1:250,000. Such maps, updated periodically and supported by geographic research 

and by evolving technologies for digitization of spatially 

related data and for information retrieval and analysis, are 

intended to assist planners and managers by determining 

changes in land-use patterns and their environmental 

effects.

The RALI Program, established in 1972 by Secretarial 

Order 2743 as a Department of the Interior program administered by the Geological Survey, is designed to provide 

a mechanism to improve technical communications between the collectors of natural-resource information and 

the users of such information for planning. RALI coordinates, conducts, and (or) funds studies and provides services to resource planners in those instances where both a 

multidisciplinary perspective and an extensive multibureau 

interaction are indicated. These studies and services include: (1) the development and case study applications of 

planning methods and technologies in areas such as coal

development, mine reclamation, and onshore impacts of 

OCS development; (2) the dissemination of information in 

forms usable by planners and decision makers; (3) the conduct of workshops and other educational activities; and 

(4) the provision of technical assistance to State and local planning agencies by the Department of the Interior 

Programs.

In response to the National Environmental Policy Act 

of 1969, the U.S. Geological Survey has been responsible 

for preparing statements on the environmental impacts of 

decisions regarding the exploration, development, and 

production of mineral and energy resources from public 

lands. The USGS also provides technical information for 

and reviews of environmental impact statements prepared 

by other agencies. This activity was formalized organizationally under the Environmental Impact Analysis (EIA) 

Program in 1975 when an effort was also initiated to support research on the problems involved in collecting and 

presenting environmental data.

The experiences gained in attempting to achieve the 

objectives of these programs have recently been summarized by T. F. Bates (1979, p. 28 and 29). Bates concludes 

that

"If earth-science information is to be applied nationwide to the solution of land resource problems, the entire earth-science community must mobilize to achieve 

what LIA has attempted to do with its projects:

• Create nationwide awareness of earth-science information needs and uses.

• Provide specialized, technical information in a 

form and language understandable to the intelligent citizen.

• Engage in the educational, advisory, and review 

services necessary to assist the public and its 

representatives in making effective use of that information.

In striving toward these objectives, many approaches are needed; some will succeed better than 

others. However, all will require establishing intimate working relations by every possible means 

of communication and interaction between the two 

"communities" involved—the earth scientists and 

the land resource planners and decisionmakers 

throughout the Nation" (p. 28, 29).

Earth Sciences and Land Use 289
APPLICATIONS IN THE FUTURE

The consequences of environmental and related 

legislation over the past decade are to require increasing 

numbers of geologic site studies in support of development 

projects, thus placing much of the burden for earth-science 

applications on developers, both private and public. 

Nevertheless, there remains a major need for independently derived, readily understandable earth-science information for decisionmakers in order to assess the merits of 

proposed developments. In the past, such information, 

where provided, was through packaged interpretive maps 

and reports or from poorly trained interpreters of basic 

earth-science data. I would expect in the future that there 

will be a much greater direct participation by geologists 

and by planners with better training and understanding of 

the significance and application of earth-science information in the decisionmaking process at all levels of government. In both cases, I would expect an increased demand 

for basic geologic mapping and sophisticated interpretive 

information—a demand that would far exceed the very 

limited use today of earth sciences in land-use decisions in 

the United States.

The continuing population growth and the impacts 

such growth has on the environment point to the need for. 

basic research on man's effect on the environment. An outstanding example is the need to locate suitable repositories 

for human by-products, including septic tank effluents, 

other household wastes, toxic industrial wastes, and 

radioactive substances, and to isolate these wastes so as not 

to impact fragile geologic and hydrologic environments.

And finally, the world energy crisis requires that earth 

scientists play a major role not only in the location of new 

energy resources but in devising innovative ways of 

developing them so as to minimize environmental impacts. 

The USGS now has such programs dealing with the environmental impacts of offshore oil development, surface 

mining of coal, mined-land reclamation, geothermal 

development, siting of nuclear power plants, disposal of 

radioactive wastes, and hydrologic and geologic consequences of synthetic fuels development. Such programs 

make their greatest contribution when they are conducted 

in advance of the need for information and do not serve to 

hinder or prolong the development process.

But energy resources are not the only nonrenewable 

resources being depleted. As a Nation, we can expect other 

serious shortages in the not-too-distant future. In a stateof-the-art review of the application of earth-science information in urban land-use planning, Spangle and others 

(1976, p. 13) point to the need for broad, national policies 

to guide State and local jurisdictions which make the principal land-use decisions related to resource development 

on private lands. They rightly point out that "Planning 

and regulatory authority are dispersed; costs and 

benefits —both environmental and economic — fall unevenly on different jurisdictions and communities; and 

mechanisms for resolving basic conflicts over whether or 

not to develop a particular resource are lacking." It remains to the earth scientist to take Vince McKelvey's words 

to heart and to articulate these and other concerns, not to 

fellow scientists, but to those who make decisions.

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geology: Master Plan for California: California Division of 

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Flawn, P. T., 1970, Environmental geology; conservation, landuse planning, and resource management: New York, 

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in town and country: Missouri Geological Survey and Water 

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290 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
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35 p.

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region, California: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 

76-547, 186 p. 

-1979, Use of U.S. Geological Survey earth-science prod-

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79-221, 173 p. 

Laird, R. T., Perkins, J. B., Bainbridge, D. A., Baker, J. B.,

Boyd, R. T., Huntsman, Daniel, Staub, P. E., and Zucker,

M. B., 1979, Quantitative land capability analysis: U.S.

Geological Survey Professional Paper 945, 115 p. 

Legget, R. F., 1973, Cities and geology: New York, McGrawHill, 624 p. 

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93 p. 

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Donald R. Nichols 

U.S. Geological Survey 

Mail Stop 903-Room 259 

Box 25046 

Denver, Colorado 80225

Earth Sciences and Land Use 291
Environmental Mapping in India

M. V. N. Murthy

Geological Survey of India

"Earth provides for enough to satisfy every man's need, not every man's greed."

MAHATMA GANDHI

INTRODUCTION

The emergence of Man as a geological agent has come 

into focus during the last few decades, leading to a direct 

responsibility on the part of earth scientists to evaluate this 

sphere of environmental change and to suggest remedial 

measures that are conformable with the intrinsic natural 

characteristics of the various geological formations and 

geomorphological units constituting the significant environmental domain. The rapidly proliferating population 

and the demand for utilisation of our finite natural 

resources, including soil and water, have made such studies 

crucial.

In the Indian context, the Geological Survey of India 

initiated environmental geological studies in 1970, with the 

launching of two major projects, involving the floodinfested Brahmaputra Basin in Assam and the rapidly 

growing urban complex of the twin cities of HyderabadSecunderabad in Andhra Pradesh (fig. 1).

ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY OF THE GANGABRAHMAPUTRA BASIN

The high priority, multi-disciplinary project in the 

Lower Brahmaputra Basin was completed in 1972, followed by a symposium and a report (Balasundaram, 1977). 

The studies included geomorphological mapping of the 

fluvial regions of some of the Himalayan tributaries of the 

Brahmaputra after they debouch into the plains, and 

hydrogeological and geotechnical investigations of these 

tributaries as well as some geotechnical investigations in 

their upper reaches. The studies were carried out over large 

tracts of the basin using aerial photographs and 

topographic maps on the one-inch scale. The studies, 

representing the first attempt of its kind by the Geological 

Survey of India, led to delineation of three different surfaces at successively different levels. The oldest —also the 

highest —surface is the most oxidised and pedogenised; it 

developed during late Quaternary and Holocene time. The 

hydrogeological studies significantly revealed the increments to surface flow from ground-water sources. The

second phase of these studies, undertaken during 1977-79, 

saw the completion of such studies in Lower Assam and 

parts of northern West Bengal, encompassing the 

Brahmaputra and its south bank fluvial features. During 

the second phase, ERTS imagery (bands 5 and 7) was used 

to identify lineaments, geomorphic features and changes in 

river courses. The most important aspect of the work has 

been the use of sequential aerial photographs and 

topographic map sheets to understand the changes which 

have taken place in the fluvial system in response to earthquakes, including the major earthquakes of 1897,1934 and 

1950.

The studies, along with the maps generated, have led 

to some major conclusions on the geological and geomorphological evolution of the basin and also in regard to certain significant trends in the fluvial regime focussing on environmental geology. The geomorphological maps showing the different surfaces, with unique soil characteristics, 

can also be converted into maps depicting land use, with 

inputs of some additional pedological information. These 

studies are now being extended to Upper Assam.

Some studies on Quaternary geology and its effect on 

land use have been carried out in West Bengal, in the tracts 

where the Hooghly, a distributary of the Ganges, has been 

active. Since fluvial processes and geomorphological 

features in the basins of the Ganges and Brahmaputra have 

many features in common, it is expected that a unified programme encompassing the entire Ganga-Brahmaputra 

basin will evolve in the near future, utilising the 

methodology already worked out both in Assam and in 

parts of Western Uttar Pradesh. Such a programme will 

lead to the generation of valuable information and landuse maps that will provide data on crucial areas that need 

to be tackled for ultimate flood protection and catchment 

conservation by means of afforestation, river training, 

identification of spill basins and other means of water conservation. Studies on various fluvial tracts are also being 

carried out by the Geological Survey of India in other parts 

of the country.

292 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
_,t^-U. S. S. RT^

INDIA

with Sikkim, Bhutan, Jammu and Kashmir

National capital £Si^'"-°»KV State or Union c***«ar*5rm"'\c Territory boundary C^T^H?

r~——vc_//^ ^rTvi»««.>AJr< 

11^-^

\ »tw 100 200 300 400 Miles

0 100 200 300 400 Kilometers

MADHYA PRADESH

AHARASHTRA

•Secunderabad 

yderabad \ ST Viahakhapatnam

Figure 1 Map of India, including Sikkim, Bhutan, Jammu, and Kashmir.

Environmental Mapping in India 293
ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY OF 

THE INDIAN COAST

In the important sphere of coastal problems, the India 

Institute of Technology, Kharagpur, has carried out 

studies on the coastal erosion of the West Bengal beach 

areas, while the Geological Survey of India has been investigating various coastal areas where such problems have 

been posed by the port authorities. Significant contributions have also been made by the Andhra University in the 

field of coastal studies in the Eastern seaboard in the 

Krishna and Godavari deltaic areas.

ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY OF 

CITIES AND TOWNS

The project for environmental appraisal of the twin 

cities of Hyderabad-Secunderabad in 1970 marked the 

Geological Survey of India's entry into the vital sector of 

evaluation of urban-growth problems and of providing the 

basic terrain information for rational planning. Largescale maps, depicting geological, geomorphological, 

geotechnical, pedological and hydrogeological features of 

the cities and their environs were prepared, in collaboration with the Central Groundwater Board and the concerned State Government agencies. This exercise helped 

the State Government in the planning process. In fact after 

the first phase was completed in 1975, the Urban Development Authority got interested after an inter-disciplinary 

workshop discussed the results.

As the project area is located in the Peninsular Shield 

of India, in granitic terrain, hammer seismic traverses have 

helped in the delineation of the soil cover. This programme 

is now being targeted for completion in 1982. Based on the 

approach adopted in this investigation, the Geological 

Survey of India initiated similar studies for the Delhi 

capital region, the important port complex of Vishakapatnam, the increasingly important urban-cum-industrial centres of Bangalore (capital of Karnataka) and Jaipur 

(capital of Rajasthan) and the pilgrimage centre of AjmerPushkar in Rajasthan. However, the work in many of 

these areas was not as comprehensive as that in the 

Hyderabad-Secunderabad complex.

In the case of Vishakapatnam, aerial photos have been 

used for geomorphological mapping by the Andhra 

University and geological mapping by the Geological 

Survey of India, in addition to topographic maps, satellite 

imagery and field checks. Interesting neotectonic activity 

could be discerned. A workshop organised this year (1979), 

"On Integrated Resource Evaluation for Vishakapatnam 

Urban Growth Centre," based on these studies, focused attention on various problems of development and also indicated the help that such maps can render in rational 

growth planning for this vital urban region.

As in the case of Hyderabad-Secunderabad, Bangalore 

is also located in the crystalline rocky terrain of the Indian

Shield, with a rolling topography and thin soil cover. The 

investigations included geotechnical and hydrogeological 

evaluation aided by hammer seismic traverses to depict the 

depths to bedrock.

The investigation for Jaipur City and its agglomeration limits was carried out during 1977-79. Located in the 

fringe of the Indian arid zone, the tract shows the presence 

of the Precambrian metamorphites with erosion surfaces 

forming inselbergs and hill ranges, the urban areas being 

located on dominantly aeolian sand dunes and restricted 

fluvial deposits. As in Assam, these alluvial/aeolian surfaces form geomorphological units of stratigraphic 

significance, with varying degrees of oxidation and consolidation and slope, vital in evaluating the desirable land 

use for each unit. The investigations included hammerseismic and resistivity surveys, hydrogeological evaluation 

and a total environmental appraisal that included suggestions for conservation, alterations of land use, and selection of possible new growth centres in the rural hinterland. 

The map also depicted areas where afforestation, soil conservation, dune stabilisation and change of quarrying sites 

are called for. The Ajmer-Pushkar area, an important 

pilgrimage centre for both Hindus and Muslims, about 120 

kilometers from Jaipur, was also studied. The data and 

maps enabled the suggestion of alternative sites for urban 

growth and of measures for flood control and relief of 

drainage congestion. In both these cases, dialogues with 

the State Government are leading to a gradual acceptance 

of the suggestions made and their incorporation in the 

regional plans.

ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY OF 

MINING PROJECTS

Some pilot studies have been undertaken by the 

Geological Survey of India in selected mining belts (both 

polymetallic copper-lead-zinc deposits and rock 

phosphate) of Rajasthan, where the dispersal of toxic 

pollutants in the soil-water system, disposal of tailings and 

mine waste, and other effects of mining are being studied 

through geological and geomorphological evaluation, including geochemical analysis. The mines development 

agencies belonging to Public Sector Undertaking are showing interest in such programmes.

REGIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGICAL 

STUDIES

The concept approach and experience gained during 

the urban appraisal of Hyderabad-Secunderabad led to the 

initiation of a regional multi-disciplinary project "OPERATION ANANTAPUR" for the district of Anantapur in Andhra 

Pradesh in 1975. The district was chosen because it had 

already been covered by the Indian Agricultural Research 

Institute's soil survey, had complete aerial photo coverage, 

and was one of the Indian districts selected for develop294 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
ment through World Bank financing. It also had a fair 

geological data base. The first phase of the studies, with 

collaboration between the Geological Survey of India and 

several other State and Central Government agencies, was 

completed in 1977; further work is in progress. The maps 

have been prepared on the basis of the administrative units 

of the State Government, the district and tehsil, although, 

scientifically, the basin concept was kept in view. To ensure the completion of the necessary maps for at least one 

such unit, the Anantapur tehsil was selected. The work was 

completed and all relevant maps printed in the Geological 

Survey of India Map Printing Press; these maps, released 

for the first time at this Symposium, together with a 

Bulletin (Raju and others, 1979), form a landmark in environmental geology in India.

The following maps are included: geological, geomorphological, hydrogeological (arranged by sub-basin), 

pedological, geotechnical and mineral resources. The 

Bulletin accompanying the maps gives considerable detail 

and many more derivative maps with additional information. The studies were based on interpretation of aerial 

photographs, with the various terrain features transferred 

to topographic maps and then field checked. Geophysical 

work was carried out in limited areas. ERTS imagery was 

invaluable in identifying lineaments that were tested for 

their water potential.

The Anantapur district is located in the Precambrian 

crystalline shield of South India which consists mainly of 

gneisses. The area also has schists (meta-sediments and 

meta-volcanics) and granulites and is riddled with 

numerous dolerite dykes. The northwestern part of the 

area is a part of the mid-Proterozoic Cuddapah Basin with 

quartzites, dolomitic limestones and shales. Most of the 

area has a very thin unconsolidated cover of a few metres; 

the exciting discovery of a lineament, about 110 km long, 

with a relatively thicker veneer of unconsolidated material 

(more than 30 metres) led to the yield of potable water 

sources after drilling by the State Government on the basis 

of the Geological Survey of India's recommendations. This 

was a turning point for this drought-affected area. This 

also confirms the possible use of lineaments as indicators 

of deep fracture zones with good water potential. Many 

other suggestions that evolved from these studies are 

leading to the development of pastures and forests.

In the wake of the Anantapur programme, similar 

studies have been taken up in the Dharamapuri district in 

Tamil Nadu (half of this area has been completed), one of 

the declared drought-prone areas of the country. Similarly, 

geomorphological mapping by the Geological Survey of 

India has been completed for the Cannanore district of 

Kerala, the Union Territory of Goa and some other areas 

of the country. These are being followed up by the 

preparation of other thematic and derivative maps. The 

Geological Survey of India has also been participating in 

the environmental studies for the backward district of

Chandrapura in Maharashtra, a project initiated by the 

India Institute of Technology of Powai (Bombay), where 

several types of maps are being prepared. In the Indian 

arid zone of Rajasthan, considerable geomorphological 

mapping has resulted in identification of areas prone to 

salinisation and waterlogging, zones susceptible to sand 

movement, and the impact of adverse land use on the 

fragile desert land-water system. Regional maps are being 

prepared that depict not only the lithology and landforms but also a suggested land-use pattern for proper 

environmental management.

ORGANISATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY 

STUDIES IN THE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF INDIA

Thus the decade commencing with 1970 has been the 

stage of inception of systematic environmental geology in 

the Geological Survey of India with a multidisciplinary approach and with emphasis on the preparation of various 

types of thematic maps. With the basic organisational 

setup in the Geological Survey of India and its logistic support, it was possible for the Survey to break new ground in 

this field, as a lead agency as a part of its chartered responsibilities. Besides the Engineering Geology Divisions 

already existing since 1945, the Geological Survey of India 

set up Quaternary Geology Cells in its various regional offices in 1973. In 1974, full-fledged Quaternary Geology 

Divisions were formed in five regions, besides a Desert 

Geology Division at Jaipur. The gradual realisation of the 

essentiality of geomorphological mapping for both 

Quaternary studies and environmental appraisal led to the 

reconstitution of all these Divisions, as Quaternary 

Geology, Geomorphology and Environmental Geology 

Divisions, for the six regions of the Geological Survey of 

India, covering the entire country, in 1976. With the 

realisation that environmental problems and their solution 

will need different types of work, with a multidisciplined 

team approach, a further step was taken in 1979 to set up 

special Divisions for Environmental Geology in three of 

the regions. At present, there is a small nucleus of 

geologists (a few dozen) who have gathered experience in 

various aspects of environmental geology in the diverse terrains of the country. Environmental maps of the types 

prepared for Anantapur and those that are being attempted for other terrains are bringing the Geological 

Survey of India's work into focus with the various 

developmental agencies of the different State administrations and the relevant Central agencies. It would be correct 

to record that the 1970-79 decade has been a phase of experimentation with different terrains, various ideas and 

approaches by the Geological Survey of India. It is indeed 

satisfying that these have evolved as we went along, problems tackled as they were faced, with noticeable impact on 

the various developmental agencies that are in charge of 

implementation.

Environmental Mapping in India 295
THE GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF INDIA AND 

ENVIRONMENTAL GEOLOGY, 1970-79

From the experience gathered in the Geological Survey 

of India, so far the following points emerge:

1. The major problems of India at its present state of

development are

a. to introduce better land use, based on a more 

intimate understanding of the soil, geomorphological and geological characteristics of 

various units of a terrain, that also reflect the 

climatic situation;

b. to arrest the process of extensive soil erosion 

that is fast depleting this invaluable and wellnigh irreplaceable resource, which is linked up 

with

c. proliferation of floods and acceleration of 

desertification as a result of wrong use of land 

and soil;

d. to rationalise and check the rapid growth of 

urban sprawls, beyond the carrying and cleansing capacity of the terrain, with related problems of hinterland resources development and 

equitable rural development, to reverse the 

rapid migration of people from rural to urban 

centres.

It is hoped that simultaneous mapping of 

urban areas and the surrounding rural regions 

for planned development will eventually help 

the Government to stimulate a balanced and 

complementary growth between the two sectors.

e. to ensure that environmental mapping and 

appraisal is a built-in part of all mining and 

engineering activities affecting natural 

resources and the terrain.

2. Undoubtedly, such maps as have been attempted 

in some of the areas discussed will be based 

primarily on a geological and geomorphological 

evaluation of the terrain. This naturally will cause 

the Geological Survey of India to play a major 

role in making this successful and also in ensuring 

that the problem will be viewed in its totality.

3. Experience gathered shows that maps of various 

types have to be prepared with the cooperation 

and involvement of diverse agencies having the 

requisite specialisation and capability. Collection 

of various types of terrain information will have 

to be geared up to remove the vital information 

gaps of the present day, such as information on 

the trace elements of various soil types in most 

areas.

4. The increasing utilisation of information from 

aerial photographs and satellite imagery (with its

enlargement and enhancement technique), besides 

the modern topographic maps. This will mean increasing involvement of the Survey of India and 

National Remote Sensing Agency.

5. In order to make the published documents 

readable and usable, there is need for continued 

dialogue with the State Government agencies and 

other user agencies, not only after the maps are 

ready, but during the field work stage, so that the 

investigators are able to appreciate the problems 

from the user's viewpoint. In a culture which is 

primarily statistics-oriented, it is essential to make 

the users aware of the problems, their cause and 

the value of cartographic depiction. This dialogue 

must be extended to other levels of planning and 

administration to make the policy and funding 

agencies take cognisance of the value of such programmes. In the words of Brown and Fisher 

(1975, p. 27, 28), "the environmental map is a 

common language and vehicle which can bring 

together the many divergent specialists and allow 

their collective contribution to be simultaneously 

focussed on a problem. * * * The derivative 

map is a means of translating basic geology into a 

form that can be utilized by a wide variety of persons interested in the environment and its proper 

exploitation and conservation."

6. The Indian scientific community, especially those 

connected with the earth sciences, has a crucial 

role to play in the preparation and proper evaluation of maps and data, to make rational suggestions to the State Governments, which are at present largely deprived of this valuable data bank to 

draw on for their policy decisions in the field of 

regional planning. This alone can ensure a developmental strategy that will not initiate or 

aggravate environmental hazards.

FUTURE STRATEGY FOR ENVIRONMENTAL 

GEOLOGY IN INDIA

The work so far done in India, and particularly by the 

Geological Survey of India, has brought into focus the 

magnitude of environmental problems, their diversity, and 

also the positive role that earth scientists can play in providing the fundamental map as an information base to 

resolve these issues and rationalise overall development of 

the country. The various pilot studies have also helped in 

evolving a strategy and approach towards the investigations. Once the value of such maps and information is 

realised by the administration in the States, the Geological 

Survey of India will be faced with requests for such programmes on a massive scale. In fact, the publication and 

distribution of the Anantapur series will probably be the 

triggering factor for such a situation. Even at this stage,

296 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
various State Governments have started favourably reacting to such activities by the Geological Survey of India. 

In order to tackle expeditiously the anticipated work 

load and the magnitude of the problems, a two-pronged 

strategy will be called for:

1. Carry out detailed studies along the lines already 

discussed in critical and priority terrains indicated 

by the State Governments, by strengthening the 

Geological Survey of India setup for such studies.

2. Initiate an immediate programme for broad 

geomorphic mapping of the entire country, with 

extensive use of satellite imagery from the ERTS 

and other projects. Together with the available 

regional maps, such geomorphic maps will make 

possible the classification of the entire terrain into 

broad units that will form the basis of land use, 

and will allow changes in pattern to be made as 

necessary. These maps will be an invaluable tool, 

not only for rational planning but also for selecting critical zones for environmental management 

and monitoring.

Utilisation of satellite imagery will include 

visual interpretation of multispectral, black and 

white Landsat imagery, the RBV pictures from 

Landsat 3, enhanced by the use of positivenegative film, sandwiches and colour renditions 

through additive colour viewers. Photographic 

enlargements to a 1:250,000 scale will also be very 

valuable in demarcating the regionally significant 

geological and geomorphic units. In the second 

stage, panchromatic air photographs and digital 

enhancement of satellite multi-spectral imagery 

will allow refinements to be made in interpretation 

and mapping. Obviously, the use of repetitive 

imagery interpretation and aerial photography 

will also be most useful for monitoring morphological changes of significance in both arid 

and fluvial regimes, consequent to floods and 

aeolian activity.

The Earth station to receive Landsat pictures 

is already set up in India, which will help in this 

sphere of activities. Furthermore, there is a strong 

ground-truth organisational base available in the 

country to back up such remote-sensing exercises, 

by way of verification and follow-up. With improvement in remote-sensing technology, it is expected that such a large scale environmental mapping programme will receive adequate support. 

The strategy for the Twenty-first Century in India, insofar as rational utilisation of the fast dwindling resources, 

especially soil and water, is concerned, will largely depend 

on the availability of such thematic and regional maps

before the turn of the century. Not only is it a question of 

preparing the maps but also of publishing them in the 

language of the user, if necessary in many regional 

languages, to enable the permeation of this knowledge of 

the environment down to the grassroots level of the people.

Obviously, the task is vast and the Geological Survey 

of India alone cannot tackle it, especially in view of the 

other strategic responsibilities that it is vested with. Nevertheless, it is mandatory that the Geological Survey of India 

retain its leadership in this vital field of the present and 

future by performing as the lead agency and also by keeping the overall environmental perspective in its purview, 

assisting other agencies, especially those in the States, to 

carry out many of the detailed studies.

Environmental problems, as commonly understood, 

lay emphasis on pollution of water and air. The more subtle, but equally vital, pollution, using this term to mean 

"degradation," will not be obvious except through the 

preparation of various types of environmental maps as 

outlined in this paper. The manifestation of proliferating 

floods, soil erosion, and desertification, often a consequence of injudicious land exploitation and degradation, is 

already overtaking India's economic development. Therefore it is no overstatement to stress the immediate necessity 

of providing the country with environmental maps to 

enable proper planning so that a prosperous, selfsufficient, self-reliant India will emerge in the Twenty-first 

Century. The task is great, but not impossible. The task is 

urgent; it is later than we think!

REFERENCES

Balasundaram, M. S., ed., 1977, Contributions to geomorphology and geohydrology of the Brahmaputra Valley: 

Geological Survey of India Miscellaneous Publication no. 

32, p. 1-291 (for restricted use only).

Brown, L. F., Jr., and Fisher, W. L., 1975, An approach to environmental geology, in Betz, Frederick, Jr., ed., Environmental geology: Benchmark Papers in Geology No. 25, 

Stroudsburg, Pennsylvania, Dowden, Hutchinson, and 

Ross, p. 24-29.

Raju, K. C. C., Kareemuddin, M., and Prabhakara Rao, P., 

1979, Operation Anantapur: Geological Survey of India 

Miscellaneous Publication no. 47, p. 1-57.

M. V. N. Murthy 

Deputy Director General 

A.M.S.E. Wing 

Geological Survey of India 

6/1, South Public Square 

Basavangudi 

Bangalore 560 004 India

Environmental Mapping in India 297
The Australian Approach to Environmental 

Mapping

C. S. Christian

Australia

INTRODUCTION

Because of Australia's size and wide range of natural 

resources, its environmental mapping encompasses a great 

variety of activities. In this paper I will discuss two kinds 

of environmental mapping in Australia: the mapping of 

some of the more significant individual components of 

the natural resource base and the mapping of resource 

environments as entities.

The major individual resource components relevant to 

the theme of this centennial conference are climate, 

geology and minerals, water, soil, and vegetation. Each 

can be represented in qualitative or quantitative terms or 

by some interpretative or use function and can thus be 

presented in a series of thematic maps. These maps will be 

discussed only insofar as they indicate a particular 

Australian requirement or method.

Mapping the resource environment involves the subdivision of the Earth's surface into areas that are either sufficiently similar to be treated alike or sufficiently dissimilar 

to require separate attention at the scale that has been 

selected as appropriate.

One approach is the ecological mapping of vegetation 

which is taken to express a response to, and therefore a 

reflection of, the environment as a whole. This is the 

ecosystem approach as developed by Costin (1954). 

However, this and the many subsequent vegetation studies 

have not yet been generally applied to Australian environmental mapping and assessment, so vegetation mapping as such will only be mentioned under thematic 

mapping.

The resource environment can also be expressed in 

terms" of land areas having distinctive physical and 

ecological characteristics. We will later examine a method 

of land resource mapping developed in Australia for this. 

It has been applied widely in Australia and other countries. 

Associated land-assessment methods will not be discussed.

The Australian continent is about the same size 

(7,686,810 sq. km) as the 48 contiguous States of the 

United States, but has only about 7 percent of their 

population (13,100,000 in 1970). The number of trained 

personnel available to map resources is correspondingly 

smaller. Further, because of the distribution of rain fall, 

water resources, and the more productive soils, the population is concentrated mainly in the southern, eastern, and

southwestern margins of the continent. About 80 percent 

of the continent is arid, semiarid, or dry hot tropical country. Its natural biological productivity is low; its mineral 

wealth is generally unknown. This large, sparsely 

populated section has always been a challenge to 

Australian initiative to know, understand, utilize and 

manage (fig. 1). It is not surprising therefore that 

Australian approaches often tend towards broadscale 

assessment. Such a tendency is reflected, for instance, in 

the many early attempts to assess continental land use 

potentials by developing generalized climatic indices that 

subdivided the continent into a number of distinctive zones 

(Davidson, 1934; Prescott, 1934, 1949). There has always 

been the need to seek useful, if imperfect, conclusions 

from limited data, by using limited numbers of personnel 

as efficiently as possible.

While staff limitations persist, our increasing need for 

more definitive information about environment management in the developing areas has led to the modification 

or evolution of methods designed to produce more 

quantitative and explicit geographical data.

EXPLANATION

Areas managed for forestry 

production

Areas of dryland agriculture 

(mainly winter cereals)

Figure 1 Map showing major areas of agriculture and managed 

forests in Australia, and the possible inland limits based on 

seasonal water regime (after Nix, 1978).

298 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Australia is mainly a flat country with limited areas of 

higher relief in the south and east and a small part of the 

centre. Geological ages range from Archaean to the 

Quaternary, and climate from the hot dry tropics in the 

north where rainfall is restricted to a few summer months, 

to the cool temperate south where rainfall is mostly confined to the winter. These factors, plus the near concentric 

distribution of rainfall and water resources, and the random distribution of minerals, have resulted in a wide range 

of natural biophysical resource environments, and in varying degrees of resource utilization. Utilization ranges 

downward from the highly developed rural areas in the 

better rainfall zones to completely undeveloped areas in 

the interior and northwest.

Constitutionally, the responsibilities for terrestrial 

natural resources in Australia lie with the individual States, 

except for those areas within Commonwealth Territories. 

However, the Federal Government does have specific 

responsibilities in defence, the marine environment, and 

meteorology, as well as general responsibilities for national 

development policy. A wide range of survey and mapping 

activities at the regional and local level, for administration, 

project, and operational purposes are performed by 

numerous State authorities such as those concerned with 

lands and survey, geology and mines, agriculture and soil 

conservation, water, forestry, national parks and wildlife, 

planning, conservation and environmental control, and 

local government. In addition, numerous disciplinary 

groups in research, education, museums, and private 

enterprise organisations contribute to the total mapping 

effort.

We will restrict our discussion to mapping at the continental scale and to special techniques. Continental scale 

mapping is mostly done by our Federal agencies in collaboration with the States. State and Federal information 

are coordinated through a number of National Councils or 

Committees.

The emphasis on reconstruction and development in 

the post-1945 period resulted in a substantial acceleration 

in the study, survey, and mapping of natural economic 

resources, especially in the less developed parts of the continent. In the last decade or so, other aspects of the environment have been receiving attention. For example, 

there has been a growing concern about conservation of 

wilderness and reference areas, the initiation of an 

ecological survey of Australia, more activity in the survey 

and study of natural biological resources, such as the International Biological Program (IBP) concerned with plant 

communities (Specht and others, 1974), and attention to 

the establishment of environmental statistical indicators. 

In due course these will all influence the mapping 

programs.

Currently, at the Federal level, the major bodies concerned with mapping are the Division of National Mapping

and the Bureau of Mineral Resources (BMR), Geology and 

Geophysics, both in the Department of National Development; the Royal Australian Survey Corps; various divisions of the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial 

Research Organization (CSIRO); the Bureau of 

Meteorology; and the Environment Division of the 

Department of Science. The Bureau of Statistics and the 

Department of Primary Industry have related specialist 

roles.

TOPOGRAPHIC MAPPING

For all environmental mapping purposes an accurate 

base map is essential. Topographic maps are produced by 

the Division of National Mapping, by the Royal Australian 

Survey Corps, and by each of the States. Close coordination is achieved through the National Mapping Council, 

which is composed of representatives of each mapping organization. The Director of National Mapping is 

Chairman.

In general, the Division of National Mapping undertakes mapping at scales of 1:250,000 and 1:100,000, the 

Royal Australian Survey Corps at 1:250,000, 1:100,000 

and 1:50,000, and the States at 1:50,000 and larger.

A major contribution towards all post-1945 mapping 

was the organization by the Division of complete coverage 

of the continent by black and white aerial photography at a 

scale initially of 1:50,000 and later of 1:84,000. This was 

completed in 1965. Complete coverage of planimetric 

maps was then compiled at photo scale. This series, 

published at 1:250,000, was completed by 1968.

Currently a 1:100,000 map series is being produced for 

the more densely populated and special interest areas, and 

orthophoto maps for other areas, both series having 

20-metre contours. At the same time the 1:250,000 series is 

being revised with more detail and 50-metre contours.

Two activities have contributed to the accuracy of the 

present mapping: geodetic surveys made between 1965 and 

1966 that used electronic magnetic distance measuring 

equipment to cover the continent, and a levelling program 

completed between 1961 and 1971.

THEMATIC MAPS

The Division of National Mapping publishes an annual Bulletin that records thematic maps produced each 

year throughout Australia. The Division is also involved in 

producing thematic maps: information from a variety of 

sources is compiled in map form by the Division. Maps are 

produced at a variety of scales, from 1:5,000,000 to larger 

scales. Of special significance is the Atlas of Australian 

Resources of which two series have already been published; a third is in progress. Maps produced so far concern 

the biophysical environment, including climate, geology, 

geophysics, landforms, land classification, land use, 

minerals and mining, forestry, fish and fisheries,

Environmental Mapping in Australia 299
agriculture, nature conservation, soils, vegetation, water 

resources and population. All Atlas maps are accompanied 

by a handbook giving general information about the theme 

mapped and describing the methodology used. The following paragraphs describe special features of some of these 

monothematic maps.

Climate

The Bureau of Meteorology is currently producing a 

Climatic Atlas of Australia at a scale of 1:12,500,000.

General climatic maps are prepared and published by 

the Division of National Mapping from information supplied by the Bureau. Apart from a wide range of standard 

climatic presentations, interpretative maps for various 

other practical uses are required. For instance, current 

maps significant to both agriculture and engineering illustrate the variation in seasonal water balance for different 

parts of the continent. Others depict the range of human 

comfort conditions and the energy requirements for adequate heating or cooling of the indoor environment. 

Because of the variability of rainfall and other factors in 

the Australian environment, climatic maps are often based 

on median and percentile values rather than on means and 

standard deviations.

Water Resources and Hydrology

Through the efforts of the Australian Water 

Resources Council, established in 1963, and with financial 

assistance from the Federal Government, there has been a 

substantial expansion of recording networks and of 

research programs. Data from this increased effort are 

presented in reports and publications of the Council, such 

as Australia's Water Resources (1975), produced by the 

Department of National Resources, and in maps prepared 

by the Division of National Mapping. These include maps 

showing surface and underground water resources, water 

quality and water use. The surface-water map depicts 

zones having different average runoff, expressed in water 

depth. It also indicates the annual discharges for selected 

major streams. A related map of special importance in the 

Australian scene shows the variation in surface runoff in 

different parts of the continent and in different seasons, 

using 10 and 90 percentile values.

Considering its large area, the number of instrumented 

basins in Australia is small compared with many countries. 

For this reason the Council initiated a study of 100 basins, 

selected according to principles of landscape analysis and 

climatic characteristics to represent the range of conditions 

prevailing on the continent. It was hoped that such a study 

would permit extrapolation from instrumented to noninstrumented basins on the basis of comparable physical 

and biological characteristics, thus extending the value of 

the existing network. A mathematical model developed to

relate runoff to rainfall and catchment characteristics is 

currently being subjected to sensitivity tests.

About 45 percent of Australia is covered by smooth 

plains that have a very different hydrology from the 

steeper coastal catchments with more consistent rainfall. 

So a special study was established to determine appropriate 

methods of collection and analysis of data for arid and 

semiarid catchments of low relief. A map depicting an 

ecological classification of those smooth arid plainlands 

was prepared for the special study and published by 

National Mapping at a scale of 1:5,000,000.

Vegetation

A vegetation map: At a scale of 1:6,000,000, this map 

was compiled for the Atlas of Australian Resources by J. 

A. Carnahan (1973) from numerous vegetation survey 

sources. It provides information on the distribution of 

vegetation types that are based on structural forms differentiated by their taller and lower strata. It indicates the 

typical genus or family of the upper stratum and, where 

the top canopy cover is less than 10 percent, that of the 

lower stratum also. Maps of forestry resources, grazing 

lands, and pastures have also been produced.

A new floristic map of Australia: Prepared by Professor N. C. W. Beadle of the University of New England, 

in New South Wales, this new vegetation map is nearing 

completion and should be published in the near future 

(personnal commun.).

Australian Biological Resources Study: Sponsored by 

the Environment Division of the Commonwealth Department of Science and Environment, this study has the goal 

of recording and collating available information on flora 

and fauna and relevant environment data. Currently it is 

encouraging, and in part supporting, preparation of a 

uniform series of vegetation maps of Australia at a scale of 

1:1,000,000. So far a classification system based on structure has been defined. The study is also concerned with 

mapping the distribution of plant and animal species. Current mapping of fauna in Australia is largely restricted to 

the recorded distributions of individual species. A book 

with maps showing the distribution of birds has already 

been published (Busby and Davies, 1977).

Soils

Both for resettlement and for agricultural development, soils information was widely sought in the post-1945 

period of economic reconstruction. Numerous soil surveys 

were conducted in many parts of the country. Other 

surveys, such as the broader land resource surveys and 

ecosystem and vegetation studies, also collected soils information. However» it was difficult to collate this information because of the lack of uniformity of soil classification 

and description. Northcote (1960) made a major advance 

in his development of a factual key for the field identifica300 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
tion and description of soils. Following a great deal of collating effort and the collaboration of many soil surveyors, 

as well as additional field and photo interpretation study, 

an extremely useful soil map of Australia was produced 

with one uniform classification system.

The map is at a scale of 1:2,000,000 and its ten sheets 

cover the continent (Northcote, 1960-68). The map depicts 

different soil landscapes, each area representing an 

association of soils whose dominant soil is nominated. An 

accompanying handbook describes all the soils in each 

map unit and gives information on lithology and topography and the soils associated with different parts of the 

terrain. To some extent the map represents the type of land 

system map that is described later in this paper. However, 

the amount of information about the landscape, other 

than soils, is limited and there is no biological information 

on vegetation, for example.

Land Use

A new land use map at the scale of 1:5,000,000 is nearing completion by our National Mapping Division. It 

depicts type and density of livestock, crops produced at 

low, medium and high intensity, urban settlements with 

populations about 2,000, larger mine sites, managed 

forests, and national parks. Based on 1976 agricultural 

census data, the map provides information on a Local 

Government Authority area basis. Visual interpretation of 

small-scale Landsat imagery is used to delineate the 

distribution of pastures and crop areas within these areas.

Geology and Mineral Resources

The importance of geological and mineral mapping to 

Australia is shown by the success in discovering mineral 

and energy resources in the last 20 years. Minerals now 

represent 30 percent of the country's total exports, and oil 

discoveries currently supply 70 percent of the nation's 

needs. Australia is self-sufficient in major minerals, except 

petroleum, sulphur, and phosphate. It has over one-fifth 

of the Western World's low-cost uranium reserves; it is the 

largest exporter of lead and iron ore, the third largest exporter of coal, bauxite, and rutile, and the sixth largest 

exporter of unrefined copper.

The recognition of any country's mineral and energy 

potential is dependent on an awareness of its geological 

framework and on abundant information for studying and 

interpreting geological history and structure. Therefore, 

the starting point in any systematic search for mineral and 

energy resources is a systematic geological and geophysical 

map series and comprehensive data bank. Our accurate 

base map series was prepared, assembled, and interpreted 

by the Bureau of Mineral Resources and the State 

Geological Surveys, with input from and application by 

many companies and institutions.

In a large continent such as Australia one can expect to 

find a range of geological conditions with differing tectonic and metallogenic domains having characteristics that 

indicate the presence of mineral and energy resources. Furthermore, with fairly sparse vegetation cover over most of 

the continent, and modest urban development largely 

restricted to coastal areas, some types of exploration are 

straightforward.

But against this, mineral resources exploration also 

presents some problems. Geological mapping advances depend very much on the number of geologists per unit area. 

Australia has about 3,000 geologists and less than 500 

geophysicists, compared with about ten times this number 

in the United States.

Other factors inhibiting exploration are the vast areas 

of superficial sediments and the relatively flat landscape 

resulting from the lack of major Tertiary tectonics. In 

general, rock exposures are not as prevalent or as fresh as 

in some other continents. This means that geological 

deductions and models need to be applied frequently to 

find "blind" or non-outcropping ore bodies. Also, because 

of low rainfall and deep weathering from past climates, 

large areas have a blanket of saline groundwaters that play 

havoc with some geophysical techniques.

On the other hand, these generally old land surfaces 

have produced a diverse and valuable assortment of 

supergene concentrations as well as conditions unfavourable to electrical geophysics. The detrital beach 

sands, the deep leads of gold and tin, the superficial concentrations of bauxite and gypsum are of obvious 

supergene origin. More complex and, in some instances, 

perhaps more remote supergene events have led to 

enrichments which form secondary copper bodies, 

manganese ores, nickel laterites, some uranium deposits, 

and the widespread and thick iron ore deposits.

The Bureau of Mineral Resources and the State 

Geological Surveys have completed regional geological 

maps for 95 percent of the continent at a scale of 

1:250,000. Since this phase of field work was made possible by aerial photography after 1946, about 540 such map 

sheets have been produced for the onshore continent, and 

a further 245 sheets for the offshore continental margin.

Modern photogeological methods and multidisciplinary approaches are emphasized, along with integrated laboratory and field investigations. Not only is use 

made of palaeontology, petrology and mineralogy, chemistry and geochemistry (rock, soil and stream), and geochronology, but geophysical techniques are also an integral 

part of problem solving.

A large part of the BMR geophysical effort has been 

devoted to completing the systematic gravity and magnetic 

survey of Australia, including the continental shelf. Complete gravity coverage of at least one station per 130 square 

kilometres is available, and 70 percent of Australia is

Environmental Mapping in Australia 301
covered by aeromagnetic maps. All the oil-prospective 

land areas and offshore basin extensions have aeromagnetic coverage. Systematic recordings of seismicity and 

crustal structure measurements are now underway for the 

whole of Australia.

Prior to 1953, oil exploration of Australia had been 

sporadic and not very successful, a commonly held opinion 

being that, in general, the Australian continent was too old 

to have produced oil. Exploration was spurred by the first 

significant, although not commercially important, flow of 

oil in 1953 from an Australian well at Rough Range No. 1 

in Western Australia.

A very significant impact on oil exploration resulted 

from the petroleum subsidy scheme introduced by the 

Commonwealth Government in 1957. It was very successful in encouraging exploration in the 1960-70 decade 

during which most of Australia's oil and gas discoveries 

were made. Its success was due not only to direct financial 

contributions, but also to additional expenditures by industry and because large amounts of exploration data were 

made available publicly within a short period.

BMR and CSIRO research findings in airborne 

geophysical techniques have been widely adopted by mining companies for their nickel and uranium exploration. 

Results from ground method research have also been 

applied successfully in metalliferous provinces.

Reconnaissance marine surveys were begun in 1965 

with gravity, magnetic, and seismic measurements being 

made simultaneously at a ship speed of 10 knots and a line 

spacing of 15 km. The whole continental shelf to a depth 

of about 2,000 metres has been largely mapped, and most 

of the continental slope to about 4,000 metres has been 

covered at 40-km line spacing. The total area covered is 6 

million square kilometres.

Continental coverage by black-and-white aerial 

photography, as a basis for plotting field observations and 

for compiling base maps, has been essential to the 

post-1945 systematic geological program. Over the complex geological provinces, colour photography is used at a 

scale of 1:25,000 for the more detailed metalliferous 

studies.

To solve the problems of mapping a large area with a 

relatively small population, Australia seeks to make full 

use of remote sensing technology. Research is being conducted into the effectiveness of various aircraft and 

spacecraft remote sensing methods, including Landsat, 

Skylab and SLAR, for mineral and petroleum exploration 

in the Australian environment. It has been found that 

Landsat imagery complements the use of aerial 

photography in regional studies. It can provide new information about some previously unrecognized structures 

depicted by lineaments, extension of previously known 

structures, and the joining of discontinuous lineaments in 

areas of sparse outcrops. In some areas a broad indication

of various rock distributions and structure may be obtained. In turn, this new information can lead to fresh 

ideas about the whole geological framework. But, so far, 

Landsat imagery has not proved to be a substitute for conventional aerial photography coupled with careful and 

extensive field mapping.

LAND RESOURCE SURVEYS

Apart from making Australia largely self supporting 

in most food and other rural products, the agricultural and 

pastoral industries have long been Australia's major source 

of overseas income. Thus interest has always been great in 

land for development purposes. On top of this there has 

also been interest in Australia's unique flora and fauna and 

the land habitats that they occupy.

Land System Surveys

The most distinctively Australian method of land 

resource survey and mapping is the land system approach, 

also known as the integrated land resource survey method 

because it involves the simultaneous study in an integrated 

program of many land features by a team of investigators—including a geomorphologist, a soil scientist, 

and a botanist-ecologist, along with other scientists, 

according to circumstances.

The land system method is described in detail by 

Christian and Stewart (1953), by Christian (1958), and by 

Christian and Stewart (1968). Its relationship to other concepts is discussed in the 1968 reference, in Davis (1969), in 

Gibbons and Haans (1976), and in Oilier (1977).

The systems approach was first developed in 1946 to 

meet a practical need for mapping and broadly evaluating, 

for various purposes, large areas (50,000 to 350,000 sq. 

km) of virtually undeveloped country in Northern 

Australia in as short a time as possible.

In these studies the word "land" is used to refer to the 

total complex of all observable and non-observable, 

physical and biological attributes of a site, including those 

above and below as well as those at or on the surface 

(Christian and Stewart, 1953, 1968). Thus land is seen as 

an entity, not as something determined by one or a few 

observable features.

While one or another component of this complex may 

have a dominating influence on land use at certain locations, more often it is the combination of several or many 

factors that determines the quality of land, the purposes 

for which it might be used, and the problems or limitations 

it may present. Not all factors can be identified by visual 

inspection and the importance of some may not become 

evident until land has been actually used for a particular 

purpose. Furthermore, understanding the geographic and 

topographic disposition of different kinds of land can be

302 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
of considerable importance, for instance, in respect to 

drainage, erosion, accessibility, transport, markets, and 

the like.

The traditional methods of mapping individual components of the environment were not adequate for the purpose, partly because they were too time consuming and 

partly because the conventional classifications alone were 

not satisfactory for broad regional assessments. For speed 

of operation a method was needed which mapped areas of 

land as entities, describing the many features, but without 

taking time to map these features individually.

Australia's land system approach therefore subdivides 

landscape into areas which are inherently similar or inherently dissimilar, thus providing a permanent framework for sampling and applying any kind of information 

or inquiry relevant to the nature of land. More detailed information from subsequent studies may also be entered 

handily in this framework.

This land system mapping method is based on the 

recognition and interpretation of the tonal and stereoscopic patterns revealed in air photos which have been or 

can be independently verified by field examination of corresponding areas on the land surface. Assumptions concerning similarity of different areas depend partly on 

comparison of the observable features of each part of the 

landscape —particularly topography, soils and vegetation—and partly on their occurrence within major 

geological and geomorphological subdivisions of the landscape. The latter are identified by combined air photo 

examination and ground observations. The landscape is 

subdivided into a hierarchical system of units. The more 

complex ones are mapped; the simpler ones within them 

are described.

The land system concept: The following quotations 

explain the reasoning underlying the concept (Christian, 

1958):

"The concept visualises that each part of the land 

surface is the end product of an evolution governed by 

parent geological material, geomorphological processes, past and present climates and time. During this 

period the land surface has been shaped to existing 

land forms, each developing in the process its own 

hydrological features, soil mantle, vegetation communities, animal populations, and range of microenvironments. [See figs. 2 and 3.]

"Where such parts of the land surface can be identified as having a similar genesis and can be described 

similarly in terms of the major inherent features of 

consequence to land use —namely topography, soils, 

vegetation and climate — they are regarded as being 

members of the same land unit. * * * The common 

genesis of the various occurrences of one land unit also 

implies that they may be similar in many respects additional to those most easily observed, and this is likely

AIR PHOTO PATTERNS

till

PRESENT LAND SURFACES

CURRENT AND RECENT CLIMATIC, GEOMORPHIC, 

AND BIOLOGICAL INTERACTIONS

I I I

MAJOR GEOMORPHIC DIVISIONS 

IDENTIFIABLE AT SURFACE

J_____I_____L

BRANCHES INDICATE GEOMORPHIC EVENTS AND PROCESSES PRODUCING 

NEW MATERIALS, STRUCTURES AND LAND SURFACES

PROCESSES = TECTONIC ACTIVITY, VOLCANISM, EROSION, 

DEPOSITION, WEATHERING AND PROFILE 

CHANGE UNDER DIFFERENT CLIMATIC 

CONDITIONS

Figure 2 Some land surface evolution sequences (diagrammatic). Branches indicate geomorphic events and processes 

producing new materials, structures and land surfaces. Processes 

are tectonic activity, volcanism, erosion, deposition, weathering, 

and profile change under different climatic conditions.

to be expressed in the technical problems associated 

with land use development."

The land system has been defined as "an area, or 

group of areas, throughout which there is a recurring pattern of topography, soils and vegetation" (Christian and 

Stewart, 1953). The land units are the topographic 

elements constituting the pattern: each topographic unit 

has a restricted array of soils and vegetation. These units 

represent the smallest areas requiring specific management 

or planning decisions at the chosen scale of the survey.

The term "land system" was adopted because it connotes the occurrence of the land units within distinctive 

landscape patterns. It also had other connotations, particularly that the various factors composing the land surface were in a constant state of interaction, that is in a 

dynamic, and not a static, state. Thus any induced change, 

such as clearing for agriculture, could be expected to have 

repercussions throughout the system. Further, "Land 

Systems" may be recognized as Simple, Complex or Compound.

Environmental Mapping in Australia 303
Rock exposures

Hills Piedmonts, scarps, 

foot slopes

Unconsolidated sediments

Flood outs, 

lateritic plains

Regional water table

Sand plain Playa/ 

salina

Sandstone P . , Limestone-. . Conglomerate Plutonic rocks ohale Sandstone

Figure 3 Central Australian landscape (diagrammatic) (After M. F. Fleming, unpublished).

Shale

"A Simple Land System is a group of closely related 

topographic units, usually small in number, that have 

arisen as the products of a common geomorphological 

phenomenon. The topographic units thus constitute a 

geographically associated series and are directly and 

consequentially related to one another. A Complex 

Land System is a group of intermixed and related Simple Land Systems. A Compound Land System is a 

group of land systems enclosed within the one boundary for convenience in mapping.

"A land system can be continuous or discontinuous, 

providing it does not extend over too wide a climatic 

range. A boundary may be somewhat arbitrary where 

there is a broad transition zone. Boundaries frequently, but not always, coincide with geological 

boundaries. Geomorphic processes are more important than the basic geological material, although the 

two are obviously related. A land system may comprise several geological groups that have lost their surface identity as the result of a dominating geomorphic 

influence. On the other hand, several land systems 

may occur within one geological group as a result of 

different geomorphic influences.

"If a pattern of a land system is adequately sampled 

and described, and the boundaries of the system can be 

defined, then the broad potentialities of the area occupied by any system can be determined without investigating the whole area in detail. An approach of 

this nature enables the work of survey and appraisal to 

proceed at a much greater pace than could be done by 

standard traverses" (Christian and Stewart, 1953).

In many places man himself has been a factor in determining the present nature of land, in some instances to 

such an extent that these man-made effects may be regarded as a persistent feature of the land unit. Where the effects are of only a partial nature it may be necessary to seek 

remnants of undisturbed areas to describe the land unit, or 

to make a further subdivision into used and unused areas.

Other factors may alter the appearance of the landscape either erratically or seasonally, and can complicate 

the interpretation of the photo image, as for example, fire, 

seasonal rainfall, and floods. A low order of correlation 

between environmental components may reduce the precision of extrapolation from a limited number of sample 

sites. Bleeker and Speight (1978) report on variable soils in 

a high-rainfall, hilly area in New Guinea. Austin (1978) 

found it necessary to describe vegetation in terms of 

toposequences in a survey of that part of temperate coastal 

New South Wales where altitude and aspect have a marked 

influence on floristics. Dense climatic climax vegetation 

may also make photointerpretation of geomorphic 

features difficult.

304 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
In addition to providing a basis for the delineation of 

areas that warrant priority attention for further study, 

whether for development or nondevelopment purposes, 

the land unit-land system concept also can contribute to 

the understanding of the geography of soils, of the ecology 

of plants and animals (Christian, 1969), and of vegetation 

classification. Oilier (1977) claims that a soil survey of 

Uganda, which took 12 man-years to produce before air 

photos were available, could have been done better in less 

time had a subsequently published land system map been 

available. Myers and Parker (1975) found that the increase 

in rabbit populations after rain, their decrease in dry seasons and the location of dry season refuges varied in different land systems. Coaldrake (1961) discusses and uses the 

concept of integrated land environment in vegetation 

studies.

Methodology: Details of the methodology of land 

system surveys are given in the papers quoted, in reports of 

numerous surveys conducted by CSIRO and published in 

that organization's Land Research Series, and in the 

reports of surveys published by State organizations, such 

as the Technical Bulletins of the Division of Land Utilization, Queensland, and the various reports on public lands 

by the Victoria Soil Conservation Authority.

The general sequence of operations for a land system 

survey by an interdisciplinary group follows:

1. Study available information, maps, reports, and 

data.

2. Delineate on air photos, at scales of 1:50,000 to 

1:80,000, all major features including discernible 

geomorphological divisions and all distinctive and 

consistent tonal patterns within them (preliminary 

land systems). Make preliminary interpretation of 

patterns with respect to geology, geomorphology 

and vegetation. Full use is made of stereoscopy in 

this process.

3. Plan series of field traverses to sample all types of 

areas delineated on air photos.

4. Examine biophysical features of sample sites and 

along traverses. This is done by the group of 

specialists concurrently who confirm or correct 

preliminary photo interpretations of geomorphic 

divisions and land systems, record observations, 

and collect rock, soil, and vegetation samples. The 

classification methods for each attribute are those 

normally adopted by the discipline concerned.

5. Discuss as a group the boundaries of areas having 

different geomorphic origins, the validity and 

content of land systems, and other classification 

conclusions.

6. Collaborate in office revision of photo interpretation and in final delineation of land systems 

surveyed by interdisciplinary group; each 

specialist will compile land system and land unit

descriptions, based on field data and information 

from samples.

7. Prepare geomorphological and land system maps; 

collate scientific data, such as vegetation ecology; 

produce generalized maps of individual components such as soils and vegetation as extrapolated from land system mapping.

8. Publish final report on the land system.

The land systems are illustrated by topographic cross 

sections (figs. 4 and 5), block diagrams (fig. 6), plans (fig. 

7), or stereo pairs of photos (fig. 8). Land units are indicated on each. Each land system illustration carries a 

brief description of its geomorphology, geology, climate, 

resources and land use, and for each land unit within it, 

there is an estimate of the proportion of the land system 

that unit occupies as well as information on its landforms, 

soils, vegetation, and any special aspects such as drainage.

The reports of land system surveys contain a general 

historical and descriptive account of the region, a description of techniques used, a discussion of land systems and 

land units, regional accounts of geology, geomorphology, 

hydrology, soils, vegetation, resources, present land use, 

and capability assessments.

Land system surveys can be and are conducted at different scales, which are dependent upon the size of the area 

being surveyed, the time available, and the purpose and 

urgency of the land planners. The air photo scales commonly used range from 1:50,000 to 1:84,000, the same 

scales that are used for national planimetric map production; but larger scales are also used. With a very small scale 

it may not be possible to identify simple land systems. At a 

very large scale, photo patterns tend to become diffused 

and difficult to recognize. The scale of mapping is in part a 

matter of choice but at the usual scale of available 

photography, map scales of 1:250,000 to 1:1,000,000 are 

appropriate.

To a large extent the method of interpretation is flexible in scale, with respect to both land systems and land 

units. Thus complex land systems may be mapped in a very 

broadscale survey and their land unit descriptions will be 

correspondingly "crowded" or complex. At a more intense 

mapping level these same complex land units may 

themselves be seen as discrete entities and be mapped as 

simple land systems. The simpler land units within the now 

simple land systems are then identified and described in 

more detail. However, at a very large scale the objectives 

of a system survey can and more often may be such specific 

landscape attributes as slope or soil. Hence specialist-type 

or thematic surveys may then be more appropriate.

It is desirable that land system data be as quantitative 

and as precise as possible. However, when very large areas 

are being surveyed, time usually imposes limitations on the 

amount of data that can be collected. For such areas a very 

broad reconnaissance is required first and detailed data are

Environmental Mapping in Australia 305
FORMED ON

ROCK 

SURFACES

Coarse 

sandy 

soils

Cully

Loamy

soils on

fresh

rock

Bend

UNDULATING TERTIARY PLAIN

DISSECTED

Thin

lateritic

soils

Jay

TERTIARY 

SURFACE

Gravelly

lateritic

soils

Kay

DISSECTED

TO ANCIENT

BEDROCK

Lateritic 

soils

Knifehandle

SAND 

COVERED

Deep sandy 

red earths

Queue

31 A 1 |\| ^

l_ AA 1 IM

\RTIALLY

SSECTED

.ateritic

soils ,

forest

?£^^:f^-r

rfers Hut

DISSECTED

TO ANCIENT

BEDROCK,

PROMINENT

STRIKE

Gravelly

skeletal

soils

•N^__^_

Kysto

DISSECTED

TO

MESOZOIC

SEDIMENTS

Skeletal

and sandy

soils

Flood -plain

subregion

Kosher

Figure 4 A typical sequence of land systems (name at bottom of each column) in the lowlands of the Alligator River Region, Northern Territory, Australia.

BROCK'S CREEK FOOTHILL LAND SYSTEM

TOPOGRAPHY

VEGETATION

CROSS SECTION

RELATIVE AREAS

SOILS

GEOMORPHOLOGY 

and 

GEOLOGY

Margin of adjacent 

Brock's Creek 

undulating 

land system

Parkland and 

"orchard" type 

vegetation

"Acid" alluvial 

and yellow 

podsolic soils

Quaternary alluvium 

and metamorphics. 

Undulating 

topography

Creek with associated 

flat liable to 

seasonal flooding

Parkland, sparse 

fringing community 

along creek

Small

"Acid" 

alluvial soil

Shallow Quaternary 

alluvia

Low hills

Mixed open forest

Large

Gravelly yellow podsolic soil, minor areas of 

stony amphibolite red soil

Elevated backbone country with steeply folded 

metamorphics of Brock's Creek group. Some 

amphibolite sills. Erosion still active

Margin of 

adjacent 

Brock's Creek Ridge 

land system

Mixed and 

deciduous 

open forest

/

"Acid" alluvial and 

gravelly or stony 

skeletal soils

Steep slopes 

on steeply folded 

metamorphics. 

Erosion still active

Figure 5 Cross section and characteristics of Brock's Creek foothill land system, Northern Territory, Australia. Only the two central 

columns apply to Brock's Creek foothill land system. The outer columns indicate which other land systems adjoin Brock's Creek 

(Christian and Stewart, 1953).

306 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
R^rpigSandstone, quartzite, |x x xl r \ I— — -I Siltstone and f i i i I Chert and \t&i&-}&\ ' , L xx ^ Greywacke |— — —1 , -i. . ~i~i~i u . -i. . ^'•"'•••"greywacke sandstone f ^ _ '————' greywacke siltstone '———' cherty siltstone

H^u^^l Amphibolite boooJ Colluvium |^- -^[ Alluvium

Unit

1

2

3

4

5

6

Area and 

Distribution

35% 

Throughout

30% 

Throughout

1 S 0/ I-5 ,0

Throughout

10% 

Throughout

5% MaryMcKinlay 

area

5% 

Chiefly in 

south and 

south-west

Geomorphology

Sandstone, greywacke, greywacke 

sandstone and siltstone, and quartzite hills and strike ridges: 50-200 

ft high, slopes to 60%, stony to 

rocky, much outcrop; gullying, 

diffuse wash

Siltstone and weathered sandstone 

hills: 40-70 ft high, gentle convex 

summits or narrow strike crests 

with up to 25% outcrop, linear to 

convex hill slopes to 30%, even 

stony to gravelly regolith up to 

2 ft deep; minor gullying, diffuse 

wash

Colluvial wash slopes at foot of 

units 1, 2, and 6: linear to gently 

concave, up to 600 yd wide, slopes 

to 5% ; up to 5 ft of sandy to silty 

colluvium with ^ in. even veneer of 

fine gravel and siltstone flakes over 

bevelled rock ; minor laterite benches 2 ft high, 20 yd wide, 10 ft above 

unit 4; scalding, minor gullying

Alluvial flats: less than 200 yd 

wide, slopes to 2%, channels up to 

30 ft wide, ill defined or incised 

through 4-5 ft sandy or loamy 

alluvium into rock; local outcrops, 

river laterite

Chert and cherty siltstone hills: 

70-100 ft high; convex summits 

above 20-30% linear slopes; 6-12 

in. angular scree up to 2 ft deep; 

rare outcrop ; dissection by closely 

spaced, sharply incised, V-shaped 

gullies up to 60 ft deep, 150 ft 

apart, with side slopes to 50%

Hills of varied lithologies, especially dolerites and amphibolites: 

50-150 ft high, smoothly convex, 

bevelled or irregular summits, 

benched, linear or convex slopes 

up to 40%; stony to rocky; frequent outcrop; gullying, sheet 

wash, eluviation, and basal sapping

Soils

Skeletal soils and outcrop

Skeletal soils and outcrop, rare 

red sandy Cahill soils, and shallow 

Munmarlary yellow-red sand to 

clay; gradational soils associated 

with lateritized outcrop

Skeletal soils, shallow grey Cullen 

soils, and rare Cahill soils as in 

unit 2

Skeletal soils (colluvium), with 

minor Elliott (yellow sand to clay, 

hard-setting)

Skeletal soils

Skeletal soils, stony krasnozems on 

amphibolite (not described), and 

Cahill soils as in units 2 and 3

Vegetation

Woodland, height 30 ft, visibility 

200 yd, eucalypts over tall or midheight grass (E. dichromophloia, E. 

miniata, E. bleeseri, E. tectifica, E. 

terminalis, Livistona, Petalostigma, 

Cochlospermum, Ampelocissus, Terminalia ferdinandiana, Grevillea 

heliosperma, Heteropogon triticeus, 

annual Sorghum, Themeda, Chrysopogon)

Flats grassland or open savannah 

(Eriachne burkittii, Themeda, scattered E. alba, E. polycarpd); channels sometimes fringed with Pandanus and non-eucalypts

Woodland, height 25 ft, visibility 

250 yd, eucalypts over tall or midheight grass (E. alba, E. dichromophloia, E. clavigera, E. tectifica, 

Xanthostemon, Cochlospermum, 

Petalostigma, Grevillea heliosperma, 

Heteropogon triticeus, annual Sorghum, Themeda, Chrysopogon)

As for unit 1

Figure 6 Baker land system, Northern Territory, Australia (Story and others, 1969). [Baker land system (965 sq. miles, 51 observations): Dissected uplands and isolated strike ridges of greywacke, sandstone, and siltstone mainly in the south and west of the area; 

skeletal soils and outcrop with minor sandy red and yellow gradational soils; woodland (evergreen or semideciduous eucalypt).]

Environmental Mapping in Australia 307
needed only where land use capability justifies closer attention. It is more economical therefore to restrict detailed 

data collection to a second stage specialist-type survey of 

selected areas either by a land-unit or a single-component 

survey method.

In the early surveys of Australia, much detailed information was lost by using generalized descriptions of land 

systems and land units. The trend in more recent surveys 

has been to store much of the information from individual 

observations in forms that permit easy retrieval and 

analysis. The availability of high-speed digital and analog 

computers over the last 30 years has contributed to this 

technical improvement.

Modifications and derivatives of the land system approach: The land system survey and mapping method has 

been in use in Australia for over 30 years and during that 

time its application has been extended far beyond its 

original purpose and to a wide range of mapping scales. As 

is to be expected, various modifications and adaptations 

have been introduced for particular purposes.

Several trends are evident. The original surveys were 

designed for large areas of undeveloped country. Many 

subsequent surveys have had to be adapted to regions 

where present land use is a major influence and also where 

more immediate decisions on land matters have to be made 

at the local level. Data collection therefore has had to meet

1 mile 

| Kay land system and its derivatives

Unit

1

2

3

4

Area and 

Distribution

75% 

Mainly 

southern 

half

15% 

Mainly 

northern 

half

5% 

Trending 

south to 

north at 

broad 

intervals

S<V 3 /o 

Southern 

margins next 

to Kay land 

system anct 

its 

derivatives

Geomorphology

Higher, seasonally dry plains: 

slopes 0-3-0-8%, elevation 10-40 

ft, relief to 4 ft; occasional shallow 

pans and buffalo wallows; freshwater clays over estuarine clays, in 

places with subfossil gastropods 

(Turritella spp.) ; 2-4 miles, in places 

up to 6 miles wide; flooded 3-6 

months to depths up to 1 ft, rapid 

drying once rains cease ; very slow 

aggradation ; rare subparallel dunes 

up to 4 ft high with slopes to 5%, 

minor levees

Low, ill-drained, seasonally tidal 

plains; similar to unit 1 of Copeman land system

Main channels: up to J mile wide 

and 30 ft deep; minor tributaries 

up to 6 ft deep and 40 ft wide, over 

\ mile apart; bed-load of silt and 

clay; lower reaches tidal in dry 

season

Up to 400 yd wide, slopes to 0 • 8% ; 

elevation c. 30-45 ft; freshwater 

clays over buried sands and ironstone gravels derived from adjacent 

deeply weathered lowlands ; minor 

channels and billabongs up to 6 ft 

deep and 50 ft wide; rare gilgai 

areas, puffs 3—4 ft across, 6-12 in. 

amplitude

Soils

Black cracking carbonate rich 

clays (Carmor) near old channels 

and higher areas: Wildman (clays 

over gleyed muds) in lower sites; 

Adelaide (self-mulching) soils on 

old levees ; minor Cairncurry (gypsic clays) on former swamp sites; 

minor dune sands

Predominantly Wildman soils and 

organic clays (Dashwood) in wet 

sites. Carpentaria saline clays near 

areas of tidal influence

Acid to neutral clays over sands 

or rock (Counamoul)

Vegetation

Sedge land, dense robust sedges up 

to 2 ft with occasional scattered or 

patchy Sesbania, rarely dense midheight grassland (Ischaemum) ; 

dunes, mixed scrub over short grass 

(Acacia, Pandanus, Ficus, Canarium)

Herbaceous swamp vegetation as 

for unit 1 of Copeman land system

Open water, or herbaceous swamp 

vegetation rooted in mud or floating; occasional clumps of Barringtonia or Melaleuca cajaputi and 

M. leiicadendron

Sedge land: fine sedges up to 12 in., 

scattered Melaleuca argentea, or E. 

papuana, Panicum trachyrachis in 

gilgai depressions, Heteropogon 

contortus on rises; low-lying areas, 

herbaceous swamp vegetation as 

for unit 1 of Copeman land system

Figure 7 Cyperus land system, Northern Territory, Australia (Story and others, 1969). [Cyperus land system (1,225 sq. miles, 26 

observations): Seasonally flooded coastal plains, freshwater clays over estuarine clays, north of area; black cracking clays over mainly 

calcic estuarine muds; sedge land.]

308 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
such requirements, but this has also been accompanied by 

greater amounts of information available from prior 

studies of geology, soils, and vegetation.

A hierarchy of landscape subdivisions has been retained although subdivision names may have been changed 

where subsequent surveys identified specific needs. In 

general, the land system or its equivalent remains the 

major mapping unit in Australia.

In land system surveys of developed country, where 

survey areas are usually smaller and where data more 

closely relevant to immediate local land use and management decisions have been required, a finer, more uniform 

landscape unit has been introduced into the hierarchy. A 

general trend has also been to prescribe the limits of each 

landscape unit in the hierarchy more precisely.

With increased experience, survey techniques have 

become more efficient, the sampling more systematic, the 

data collection more detailed and precise for each land attribute, especially at the land unit level, and we have 

adopted improved data storage and retrieval systems.

The study of morphogenesis tends to be less emphasized and is replaced by direct measurement of terrain 

characteristics. However, the morphogenetic implications 

remain an inherent characteristic of the procedures, and 

mapping usually takes note of geomorphic divisions. More 

interpretation of processes is made in order to understand 

either land deterioration or land stability. In areas where 

large-scale information is required for defined objectives,

the land system subdivision becomes less significant. Then 

land resource surveyors are more concerned with specific 

landscape components, such as soils or vegetation; they 

adopt classification systems appropriate to these components, rather than to the landscape as a whole.

Because of this methodological flexibility, the subdivisions adopted in different surveys are not always comparable, but we are trying to reconcile these differences.

Two other developments are noteworthy. One is the 

application of the same general principles to the mapping 

of regions for land use planning, but mainly by using and 

aggregating existing information, with a minimal amount 

of new data acquisition. This was done in the survey of 

South Australia that we discuss later. The other development is the recognition of a need to relate biophysical information to the existing land area boundaries imposed by 

socioeconomic decisions, such as land tenure boundaries, 

rather than to natural boundaries alone. This is important 

partly because available statistics relate to these boundaries 

and also because these areas are the units to which information is applied in planning and management.

Some areas originally mapped as complex and compound land systems have been resurveyed at a larger scale 

into simpler land systems. The land system survey was initially seen as the first stage in a sequence of events in land 

appraisal. It was envisaged that, after the initial identification by the reconnaissance survey of the important parts of 

a region, specialist-type studies or surveys would be made

Figure 8 Stereo pair of photographs of the Cully I (Cu), Effington I (Ef) and Levee (Le) land systems in the Alligator River region, 

Northern Territory, Australia (Story and others, 1976). (The air photographs in figure 8 are Crown Copyright and have been reproduced by courtesy of the Director, Division of National Mapping, Department of National Development, Canberra, Australia.)

Environmental Mapping in Australia 309
in selected areas, to map and assess specific resources in 

detail (Christian and Stewart, 1968). This procedure has 

been followed in principle more closely in the Northern 

Territory than elsewhere. Following the survey of the 

Katherine-Darwin region, research stations were established in the Tipperary land system and near Darwin. Following some years of research, land unit surveys were conducted in a number of areas which had previously been 

mapped at the land system level (Aldrick and Robinson, 

1972; Fogarty and Wood, 1978). These land unit surveys 

are at scales ranging from 1:10,000 to 1:100,000, and provide much more detailed information of direct value to 

both rural and urban land users. Their purposes range 

from pastoral and agricultural planning, through erosion 

assessment and wildlife habitat studies, to urban planning.

Other modifications of the land survey system are 

described below:

1. In Western Australia, the survey of the Gascoyne 

Catchment was made for the purpose of assessing soil erosion and the degree of degradation of rangelands (Wilcox 

and McKinnon, 1972). The mapping unit was called the 

"rangeland type." In most instances rangeland types were 

identical to land systems, but in some instances geology 

and soil differences were obscured by the vegetation 

response and a rangeland type overlapped land systems. In 

other instances, one land system was divided into two 

rangeland types. Payne, Kubicki and Wilcox (1974) report 

on the use of a land system survey of the West Kimberley 

area for assessing range condition, and Kubicki and Beer 

(1973) describe the re-survey of parts of the north 

Kimberley for assessing the suitability of land for pasture 

improvement.

In areas closer to socioeconomic development, surveys 

tend to be of a landform-soil type, or to be based on some 

other specific attribute.

2. Most of Queensland has been covered by some form 

of land system mapping. Surveys of extensive pastoral 

areas have been made in Western Queensland at a map 

scale of 1:250,000. These conform to the general land 

system-land unit concept, but mapping is done in greater 

detail than for earlier surveys and includes mapping land 

units where feasible. Sampling is arranged systematically 

within land system boundaries and also to establish relationships between adjacent land systems. Checks are made 

to test sampling bias.

The above-mentioned surveys are characterised by improvements in data acquisition, storage and retrieval and 

by investigating each land attribute in considerable detail.

Land systems are grouped into land zones on the basis 

of similarity in physiography, soils, vegetation and 

geomorphic development. Landsat imagery for different 

growth periods is used to examine regional variability. It 

assists both differentiation and mapping.

Emphasis is placed on the collection of data for land 

unit descriptions because of their importance as units of 

land management. The survey reports include much of the 

original information on each landscape attribute. Further, 

survey data are permanently stored on microfile.

These survey reports include extensive information on 

these Western Arid regions in addition to the biophysical 

data, with discussions of resources and problems of a kind 

which have direct relevance to land management (Department of Primary Industries, 1974, 1978).

Similar surveys are conducted in the mixed agricultural and grazing areas at a larger scale with more intensive field sampling. Map scales range from 1:50,000 to 

1:250,000. In intensive agricultural areas, surveyors usually employ reconnaissance survey methods but are concerned more particularly with soils. An alternative technique is to sample key areas intensively and to extrapolate from them.

In coastal areas where operational information is required, surveys are made at the land unit or site scale but 

data may be grouped into land systems for general use.

3. In central Queensland, three adjacent areas of the 

Fitzroy region previously surveyed by CSIRO were reexamined by Gunn and Nix (1977). Because they had been 

surveyed separately, and because of the procedural flexibility inherent in the system-unit concept, it was difficult to 

collate similarly-named units of these three surveys for applied land-use purposes. In the three original surveys a 

total of 120 land systems and 863 land units had been 

recorded; many of the described land units were of a complex type. The 863 land units were reclassified according to 

type of land surface, subdivided by terrain type (landform, 

relief, and slope), landform element (position on slope), 

soil, and vegetation. This produced 142 simple land units, 

many of which recur in numerous of the 120 land systems. 

They were regrouped into 19 geomorphic categories for 

regional mapping purposes.

Next, the proportion of each land system occupied by 

the relevant land units was determined. A small index map 

for each land unit located it in the study area, and appropriate shading indicated whether it occupied more than 

40 percent, 10 to 39 percent, or less than 10 percent of the 

land system in which it was represented.

The Fitzroy example draws attention to the desirability 

of standardizing the scale of subdivisions and of developing correlation procedures, at least between closely related 

surveys, where data are to be used directly for land use 

planning. In the three Queensland survey areas referred to, 

common elements of geomorphological history were 

largely responsible for the structural similarities that the 

reappraisal revealed; and because these were important 

similarities, the need arose for collective planning.

There is a degree of subjective judgement involved in 

recognizing dividing points between land units. It is attrac310 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
tive to consider the adoption of the parametric approach 

for this purpose. This may be appropriate at large scales 

but it is an approach dependent on additional information 

such as precise contour data, which is not usually available 

in areas where extensive land system surveys are appropriate. Landscape mapping is still required in order to 

show the spatial relationship of the parameters selected for 

study. The time required for such intensive study is also an 

important limiting factor. Decisions also have to be made 

on how much detail is to be acquired in the initial survey 

and how much is to be left to be acquired, for selected 

areas, in a subsequent specialist survey.

4. In eastern coastal Queensland, the land system-land 

unit concept was used for a comprehensive study of the 

ecological subdivision of the lowlands area. This 

ecosystem study is reported by Coaldrake (1961).

5. In Victoria, a relatively intensively developed State, 

land system surveys have been used for a variety of purposes. They are a viable and useful part of mapping and 

appraisal procedures for planning and land use decisions, 

and about two-thirds of the State has been or is being 

mapped. Land system information is applied in numerous 

ways including land capability ratings, and for determining 

reserve areas of crown land to be set aside for conservation, or other purposes. Here the land system is the mapping unit used. A broader unit, the land zone, is an aggregation of land systems with some common features of 

land form, geological material, and climate. It corresponds 

more or less to a geomorphic division or category (see item 

3 above). The land system is divided into areas termed land 

components, roughly equivalent to simple land units. Simple and complex land components are recognised. Soil and 

vegetation toposequences are identified in order to help explain ecological relationships. The various landscape units 

are defined in terms of degree of uniformity or variability 

of geology, landform, soil and native vegetation.

Land systems are illustrated by block diagrams that 

identify the land components. Given in tabular form, land 

system descriptions include general data on climate, 

geology, and topography, with more detailed information 

for each component, including landform, slope, native 

vegetation, and soil. Present land uses are listed, as well as 

information specifically related to soil deterioration, such 

as critical land features, processes, and forms. These land 

system surveys are published either by the Soil Conservation Authority in a Technical Communication series (as 

no. 12, Nicholson, 1978) or by the Land Conservation 

Council of Victoria in reports of regional land studies for 

multi-land use purposes.

To identify and briefly describe land systems, a 

numerical system has been adopted. Each major land attribute is classified on a numerical scale in which each 

number defines the attribute. For example, there are 8 

numerical classes for average annual rainfall, 5 for

geological age, 4 for surface rocks or sediments, 7 for 

average altitude, and 6 for land forms. Identifying the appropriate class for each attribute yields a five-digit 

numerical description which classifies the land system. 

Should different land systems have identical five-digit 

descriptions, they are further distinguished by an additional digit.

6. In the Western District area, the New South Wales 

Soil Conservation Service has a program of land system 

mapping that occupies about half of the State. About onequarter of the whole State has now been mapped. Mapping 

is usually done first on individual leases, such as the 

livestock grazing properties (ranches). The primary objective is to obtain information on topography, soils and 

vegetation, and soil erosion and range condition, for land 

management purposes. Supplemented by additional air 

photo interpretation, the individual lease surveys are then 

aggregated into standard map sheet areas. In more intensively developed areas in the eastern part of New South 

Wales, the land system survey is usually replaced by a more 

detailed soil survey.

7. In Tasmania, the first stage of a land system mapping program for the State has just been concluded 

(Richley, 1979). The method conforms closely to that used 

in Victoria. (See item 5 of this listing.)

8. For recording terrain data for engineering purposes, 

an interesting adaptation of the same principles is that by 

the CSIRO Division of Applied Geomechanics (Grant, 1973, 

1974; Grant and Finlayson, 1978). The terms used are terrain pattern, terrain unit, and terrain component. While 

these terms correspond in concept very closely to land 

system, land unit, and site, they are defined within narrower limits of variation. A numerical system is used for 

identification and the kinds of data to be acquired for terrain analysis are prescribed. Precise instructions are given 

on procedures.

9. Two studies initiated by CSIRO were designed to examine the development of new technologies. One is a study 

of the environments of South Australia (Laut and others, 

1977) and the other a study on the south coast of New 

South Wales (Austin and Cocks, 1978).

ENVIRONMENTS OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA

At the request of the then Commonwealth Department 

of Environment and Conservation in 1975, the CSIRO 

initiated a feasibility study in South Australia to devise and 

demonstrate a methodology for an ecological survey of 

Australia and to assess the suitability of Landsat imagery 

for the purpose. The pilot study was extended to the whole 

State, an area of about 900,000 square kilometres. Completed in a two-year period, the study attempts to provide a 

consistent level of information throughout the State (Laut 

and others, 1977).

Environmental Mapping in Australia 311
The approach, a modified integrated reconnaissance 

survey, depended largely on the compilation and mapping 

of existing information, using Landsat imagery as a base 

map. A large-to-small environmental hierarchy was arranged by province, region, association, and unit.

The State of South Australia was first divided into 8 

provinces, mainly on a geographic basis. Below the province level, increasingly detailed information was given for 

region, association, and unit. Environmental units were 

defined primarily by geomorphic criteria. Associations are 

aggregates of environmental units. Regions consist of 

groups of associations. At each level, definitions include, 

as appropriate, such factors as landforms, climate, native 

vegetation, land use, ground water, surface water, soil, 

and cultural features.

The following account of the mapping procedure is 

taken from Laut and others (1977):

"Mapping is based on LANDSAT imagery. For each 

subject mapping is a compilation exercise wherever 

previously published research is available, but it also 

involves interpretation of LANDSAT imagery both to 

identify boundaries used by previous researchers, frequently at different scales and levels of generalization, 

and to extrapolate these to wider areas and to identify 

pattern boundaries not associated with previous research. Field work was generally limited to checking 

data rather than acquiring new data, although there 

were numerous occasions when new data were obtained during field checking, especially in the north of 

the State.

"In practice, for each environmental province, team 

members compiled previous research data, undertook 

reconnaissance field work, and interpreted LANDSAT 

imagery to prepare a map for each subject. Boundaries 

were examined, modified, extended or rejected by 

common consent until a set of environmental boundaries proved satisfactory to all disciplines. The environmental association delineated in this way usually 

represented distinctive patterns on LANDSAT imagery. 

The environmental units within each association were 

identified and described but not mapped.

"Experiment indicated that black and white LANDSAT 

imagery could be used readily for pattern recognition 

as if it were a pseudo air photo mosaic, from scales of 

1:1 million to approximately 1:200,000. * * * Two 

scales of mapping were adopted; 1:250,000 for those 

provinces in the agricultural areas and 1:1 million for 

the pastoral and sparsely settled areas."

THE SOUTH COAST SURVEY, NEW SOUTH WALES

This study area of about 6,000 square kilometres centred on one Local Government Authority area or Shire in 

New South Wales and adjacent parts of Shires to the north 

and south. It includes farmlands and grazing areas, national park reserves, and areas of forest and fishing industries. Increasing pressure for recreational use from 

nearby regions results in the area's urbanisation and land 

subdivision, particularly near the coast. The survey was an 

experimental study of a mapping methodology that could 

provide environmental information about the resources of 

the area for "a rational basis for planning decisions on a 

wide variety of land uses." In this respect it differed from 

many former reconnaissance surveys that did not aim to be 

so explicit about planning information at the local level 

(Austin and Cocks, 1978).

The survey was a study of both biophysical features 

and socioeconomic aspects within a framework of land 

boundaries already established for social and administrative purposes, or imposed by distinctive 

biophysical features. Within these constraints, the survey 

set out to determine the various land use options for each 

area and to demonstrate how to select a preferred use. The 

study included fauna, and intertidal and sub-littoral zones, 

as well as terrestrial areas and water bodies.

The region was first divided into "Functional 

Districts" on the basis of gross geological, relief, and land 

use characteristics. For each district, all occurrences of the 

smallest identifiable uniform photo patterns were 

delineated on air photos. Termed "unique mapping areas" 

(UMA), these correspond to simple land systems. Fifteen 

lithologic and twelve terrain types were identified. Each 

UMA was also subdivided into "Functional Units" or areas 

of land with boundaries determined either by former land 

tenure or by land use zoning decisions. The study aimed at 

providing information about each of the 3,854 Functional 

Units that were identified and mapped.

"Facets" (simple land units or sites) were determined 

by subdividing landforms into simple, uniform sectors. 

They were identified from 1:250,000 maps with 10-m contours or from air photos. Individual facets were not 

mapped but fifty broad facet types were identified and included 12 kinds of erosional terrains, 7 of coastal rock, 15 

of depositional terrains, and 16 of water bodies. Many 

were further qualified according to lithology and terrain 

type, increasing the number to 311. Additional types had 

to be created for special, usually small, situations such as a 

beach type facet in a coastal functional unit. These raised 

the total to 504 facets.

Facets were described in terms of landform, lithology, 

aspect, rockiness, soils, and vegetation. Descriptions were 

prepared with information from 693 sample sites and from 

topographic maps. The number of sample sites was allocated to the Functional Districts in proportion to each 

District's size, complexity, and "importance." The distribution of sample sites within each district was calculated on 

the basis of the uniqueness and extent of different types of 

UMAs within each District. The samples were finally 

located in the UMAs subjectively according to their landscape pattern and accessibility.

312 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Although there was a general correlation between 

facet type and soil and other attributes, there was a 

geographic range in the occurrence of a given facet due to 

climatic and other factors. An idealized description or 

paradigm was constructed for each facet type unless 

known variants were present.

The Functional Unit was the mapping unit. Each 

belonged to a given lithologic and terrain type, although in 

some circumstances a Functional Unit had two terrain 

types represented. Each such Functional Unit contained 

from one to 11 facets and was given a biophysical description based on the idealized descriptions of the facets present and their relative proportions.

The large volume of data associated with 800 UMAs 

and 3,854 Functional Units required an appropriate computer data storage, retrieval, and analysis system. This 

consisted of a map system and a Functional Unit attribute 

system, with intercommunication to facilitate presentation 

of data search results. Within the map base the graphic 

elements are points, lines, and regions, but only the last, 

expressed as Functional Units, were used in this exercise. 

The attribute base stores information compatible with the 

Functional Units.

It is possible to retrieve data from the attribute base to 

answer complex questions about the distribution of 150 attribute characteristics with respect to the 3,854 Functional 

Units. Information can be delivered either in tabular or in 

cartographic form, and the mapping system incorporates a 

number of advanced concepts including file storage, line 

deletion and addition, and various map search procedures. 

It gives considerable flexibility to the manner in which map 

data can be analysed and used.

However, maps produced by the computer system 

depict the facet paradigms and do not necessarily indicate 

the precise biophysical attributes of an individual unit on 

the map, although the Functional Unit data bank can be 

updated as more information is obtained.

Compared with most other comprehensive land resource surveys, this study was restricted to a relatively 

small area. It was conducted at a much more intensive 

scale by a larger number of investigators and was more 

comprehensive and collected more explicit information 

than traditional surveys do. It also utilised a systematic 

sampling procedure; facet analysis of the landscape was 

possible because 10-metre contour maps had already been 

made of this region. Computer storage and data processing 

was essential. To a degree this storage replaces the permanent framework of mapped land types of the early land 

system surveys. Primarily an experiment, the study was expensive for Australia. Whether this high-technology approach can be applied as a routine for other Shires remains 

to be seen. Subsequent efforts have been made to adapt the 

technology to the minimal time, resources, and limited 

skills of staff available for planning exercises by local and

regional governments. The information is of more value to 

and is more easily accessible to regional planners and 

researchers than it is to individual land users.

Using the study's attribute information as a guide, 

specialist surveys, or at least examinations, would still 

probably be necessary at the level of the Functional Unit 

for local land use management purposes. But the hightechnology approach could have direct application to areas 

of intensive development such as planned growth centres 

intended to stimulate regional development.

OTHER SPECIAL LAND RESOURCE STUDIES

An Inventory of Coastal Lands

Coastal lands have a special importance in Australia. 

Apart from defence and customs matters, they are subject 

to a variety of land use conflicts arising from demands for 

urban development, recreation, rutile mining, forestry, 

conservation, and Aboriginal rights. CSIRO is conducting 

an inventory of the coastal zone, which is defined generally 

either as the area extending inshore for 3 km from the high 

tide mark or to the landward boundary of the marine, 

estuarine, or wind-blown deposits formed in the last few 

thousand years. Where mangroves occur their seaward 

boundaries are included.

At the "continental" scale of 1:1,000,000, these coastal 

lands cover a map strip a few millimetres wide and over 30 

metres long. Such maps are therefore not satisfactory for 

storing and presenting data for the coastal strip as a whole.

Using computer-stored information, a system for spot 

sampling each 3 km was developed. First, successive 

10-kilometre sections around the coast were numbered 

consecutively. Then, the inner boundaries, and section 

limits separated by lines orthogonal to the coast, were 

marked on 1:84,000 air photos. A grid of points, spaced 

one per 3 km, was next marked on these photos with a circle 3 mm in diameter around each. Geology, landform, 

vegetation and land use data from both published information and from photo interpretation were then recorded for 

each encircled area. The nature of the coastline for each 

10-kilometre strip was then defined. A file of soil data for 

each section stated the proportion of soil types delineated 

in the Atlas of Australian Soils. Another file contains the 

population for each section.

These data files are linked to a mapping subroutine so 

as to produce a simple map of occurrence of any nominated type of coastal land recorded in the system. Information is given down to the level of the 10-kilometre sections 

(R. W. Galloway, personal commun.).

Wetland Survey

A feasibility study was made of the practicability of 

surveying the wetlands of Australia (Paijmans, 1978). To

Environmental Mapping in Australia 313
define the problem, classification systems and reconnaissance surveys were reviewed, and it was found that we 

needed a system appropriate to the wide range of 

Australian conditions that often include a considerable 

seasonal fluctuation in water level. Therefore, a pilot study 

of 200,000 square kilometres in northwestern New South 

Wales is being made by CSIRO and the New South Wales 

National Park and Wildlife Survey. The joint project involves a study of plant ecology and water-bird habitats and 

will classify and map the wetlands of the area.

Australian Biophysical Regions

At the request of the Department of Urban and 

Regional Development, the CSIRO (Laut and others, 1975) 

made a study of the regionalisation of Australian 

biophysical environments and their distributions on the 

continent. The continent was divided into major climatic 

zones, and the catchment area was chosen as the basic unit 

of information subdivision and storage. Information was 

derived from existing compilation maps for terrain and 

lithology, soils, vegetation, and climate. Catchment areas 

were also grouped according to similarity of attributes, 

landform and lithology, soils and vegetation type and 

structure, using numeric codes. The results are presented in 

a four-part map of the continent at a scale of 1:250,000 

and in a catalogue summarising the soil, topography, and 

vegetation information which characterises the 300 

biophysical regions which were mapped.

The Australian Environmental Statistics Programme

In order to establish a framework for an environmental statistics program that will help in dealing with the 

pressures on the environment that arise from human activity, or from environmental conditions themselves, it was 

necessary to subdivide the continent into regions. This provides a spatial base for the organisation of statistics. CSIRO 

and the Environment Division of the Department of 

Science are now defining a set of these "environmental" 

regions based on aggregations of adjacent local government areas with similar environmental characteristics. 

Land use, climate, geology, and natural vegetation are the 

characteristics used for aggregation. These environmental 

boundaries do not always conform to biophysical boundaries (K. McHenry, personal commun.). Unlike the 

biophysical regions described earlier, this program has to 

take into account both the areal basis on which statistics 

are gathered and the administrative boundaries within 

which information is used.

Satellite Imagery and Data

Several references have been made earlier to the use of 

Landsat imagery for Australian mapping. Some further 

comments are appropriate, although the full scope of

Landsat use cannot be explored. In the past, its use was inhibited by uncertainty of coverage, delays in obtaining 

imagery, and the poor quality of some imagery. The last 

problem has been largely overcome by CSIRO'S development in its Division of Mineral Physics of an effective 

computer enhancement program. The problems of delay 

and coverage as of 1979 should be diminished in 1980 when 

Australia's own data receiving station will be operating.

So far Landsat imaging has not replaced conventional 

stereoscopic photography for small scale mapping; 

however, it has proved to be an important complement. 

The largest area for which Landsat has been used is the 

South Australia survey already described. There its imagery served successfully as a base map and reference, the 

survey depending very largely on the use of established 

data, but Landsat permitted checks and extrapolations to 

be made. Robinove (1979) has tested the feasibility of producing a land system map from Landsat data by using contrast stretching of images to make them more easily interpreted visually, and by digital classification of data into 

distinct spectral classes. The digitally classified map so 

produced corresponds to the general geographic patterns 

of many land systems mapped in semiarid Western 

Queensland. Thus it was concluded that the digital mapping of terrain, preceding field work, could act as a guide 

to field sampling and to detailed terrain unit description as 

well as for measuring the location and extent of each unit. 

Woodward (personal commun.) has similarly found close 

correlation between patterns identified on Landsat imagery and land systems previously mapped in Central 

Australia.

Landsat imagery has been used successfully for a 

number of specific mapping and monitoring exercises, and 

many experimental and operational target studies by 

research and private organisations are now in progress. 

Many of these were reviewed in the Landsat 79 Conference 

held in Sydney in May 1979. Honey (1978) had already 

reported its use for soil erosion monitoring, identification 

of rangeland vegetation types, surface water and wetland 

studies, animal habitat studies, forest condition mapping, 

and observation of the effects of water buffalo on the 

forest and flood plains of the South Alligator River region 

in the Northern Territory.

Clearly the technique has an important role in the study 

of time dependent changes, such as biological responses to 

season or to landscape interferences, and wherever unambiguous signatures can be identified for specific attributes 

either from imagery or by data processing.

Simpson and Perry (1979) found in a study of severe 

floods in Northern Australia that Landsat imagery provided an excellent record of the distribution of both clear 

and silty flood waters and, coupled with data from aerial 

observation, provided information on water movement 

and its geomorphic implications that could not be obtained

314 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
from aerial observation alone, or from dry season aerial 

photographs, or topographic maps.

Currey also reports (in Honey, 1978) its use in conjunction with aerial photography for flood mapping and 

the identification of flood prone areas.

With respect to its use for geological and mineral exploration, we have previously mentioned its value as a 

complement to traditional mapping from aerial photography. Huntington (1979) states that "It does demand a basic 

understanding of the physical characteristics of the data 

and above all an appreciation of how geology, 'sensu lato', 

is expressed in the landforms, soils and vegetation of an 

area of study" and that "The practical use of Landsat 

variously involves photogeological interpretation, digital 

image enhancement, data integration and multispectral 

classification more or less in order of increasing complexity and possibly decreasing cost effectiveness."

It is evident that Landsat information is another tool 

for environmental mapping whose full scope will only appear after much more research and investigation.

Other satellites give greater coverages, at shorter intervals, for similar processing costs, but they provide poorer 

resolution. Their possible contributions to small scale 

mapping of special targets have not been adequately explored so far.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The author wishes to express his thanks to many 

friends in the State and Commonwealth Authorities who 

have supplied information and material on current mapping activities in Australia.

REFERENCES

Aldrick, J. M., and Robinson, C. S., 1972, Report on the land 

units of the Katherine-Douglas Area, N.T. 1970: Land Conservation Series No. 1. Northern Territory Administration, 

Darwin, Northern Territory.

Austin, M. P., 1978, Vegetation, in Austin, M. P., and Cocks, K. 

D., eds., Land use on the south coast of New South Wales, 

v. 2: CSIRO Australia.

Austin, M. P., and Cocks, K. D., eds., 1978, Land use on the 

south coast of New South Wales, v. 1: CSIRO Australia.

Bleeker, P., and Speight, J. G., 1978, Soil-landform relationships 

at two localities in Papua New Guinea: Geoderma, v. 21, p. 

183-198.

Busby, J. R., and Davies, S. J. J., 1977, Distribution of birds on 

the Australian mainland: Dr. D. L. Seventy's maps: 

Australian Biological Resources Study (CSIRO).

Carnahan, J. A., 1973, Natural vegetation: Atlas of Australian 

Resources, Second Series, Department of National 

Resources, Canberra.

Christian, C. S., 1958, The concept of land units and land system: 

9th Pacific Science Congress, 1957, Proceedings, v. 20, p. 

74-81.

————1969, Habitat manipulation, pt. 1. Regional surveys for 

habitat studies, in F. B. Golley and H. K. Buechner, eds., A 

practical guide to the study of the productivity of large herbivores: Oxford, Blackwell Scientific Publications.

Christian, C. S., and Stewart, G. A., 1953, General report on 

survey of Katherine-Darwin region, 1946: CSIRO Australia 

Land Resources Series No. 1.

———1968, Methodology of integrated surveys, in Aerial surveys 

and integrated studies: Proceedings of Toulouse Conference, 

1964, p. 233-280 (UNESCO, Paris).

Coaldrake, J. E., 1961, Ecosystem of the coastal lowlands, 

southern Queensland: CSIRO Australia Bulletin 283.

Costin, A. B., 1954, The ecosystems of the Monaro region of 

New South Wales: Soil Conservation Series, New South 

Wales Government Printer, Sydney.

Davidson, J., 1934, The monthly precipitation-evaporation ratio 

in Australia as determined by saturation deficit: Transactions 

of the Royal Society, South Australia, v. 58, p. 33.

Davis, C. M., 1969, A study of the land type: Department of 

Geography, University of Michigan.

Department of Primary Industries, 1974, Western Arid region, 

land use study, pt. I: Queensland, Division of Land Utilisation Technical Bulletin no. 12.

————1978, Western Arid region, land use study, pt. IV:

Queensland, Division of Land Utilisation Technical Bulletin

no. 23. 

Fogarty, Peter, and Wood, Blair, 1978, The land resources of

Larapinta valley and the Undoolya area, Alice Springs: Land

Conservation Section, Darwin. 

Gibbons, F. R., and Haans, J. C. F. M., 1976, Soil survey papers,

no. 11: Netherlands Soil Survey Institute, Wageningen. 

Grant, K., 1973, The PUCE programme for terrain evaluation for

engineering purposes. I. Principles: CSIRO Australia Division

Applied Geomechanics Technical Paper no. 15.

————1974, The PUCE programme for terrain evaluation for 

engineering purposes. II. Procedures for terrain classification: CSIRO Australia Division Applied Geomechanics 

Technical Paper no. 19.

Grant, K., and Finlayson, A. A., 1978, The assessment and 

evaluation of geotechnical resources in urban or regional environments: Engineering Geology, v. 12, no. 3, p. 219-293.

Gunn, R. H., and Nix, H. A., 1977, Land units of the Fitzroy 

region, Queensland: CSIRO Australia Land Resources Series 

no. 39.

Honey, F. R., 1978, Monitoring changes in resources by satellite, 

in Hallsworth, E. G., and Woodcock, J. T., eds., Land and 

water resources of Australia: Australia Academy Technical 

Sciences, Victoria, Australia.

Huntington, J. F., 1979, The geological use of LANDSAT imagery 

in mineral exploration and mapping in Australia: LANDSAT 

79 Conference, Sydney, Australia.

Kubicki, A., and Beer, J., 1973, A survey of land suitable for 

Townsville stylo in the North Kimberly of W.A.: Department of Agriculture, Western Australia.

Laut, P., Heyligers, P. C., Keig, Gael, Loftier, E., Margules, C., 

and Scott, R. M., 1977, Environments of South Australia. 

Handbook: CSIRO Australia Division of Land Use Resources.

Laut, P., Margules, C., and Nix, H. A., 1975, Australian 

biophysical regions: Australia Government Publication 

Series, Canberra.

Environmental Mapping in Australia 315
Myers, K., and Parker, B. S., 1975, A study of the biology of the 

wild rabbit in climatically different regions in eastern 

Australia. VI: Australia Wildlife Resources 2, p. 11-32.

Nicholson, B. M., 1978, A study of land in the Gippsland Lake 

area: Soil Conservation Authority, Victoria, Australia, 

Technical Communication 12.

Nix, H. A., 1978, Land resources: Area suitable for agriculture, 

in Hallsworth, E. G., and Woodcock, J. T., eds., Land and 

water resources of Australia: Australia Academy Technical 

Sciences, Victoria, Australia.

Northcote, K. H., 1960, A factual key for the recognition of 

Australian soils: CSIRO Australia Division of Soils Rep. 4/60.

————ed., 1960/1968, Atlas of Australian soils: CSIRO and 

Melbourne University Press.

Oilier, C. D., 1977, Terrain classification, methods, applications 

and principles, in Hails, J. R., ed., Applied Geomorphology: 

New York, Elsevier Science Publishing Co.

Paijmans, K., 1978, Feasibility report on a National wetland 

survey: CSIRO Australia Division of Land Use Resources 

Technical Memorandum 78/6.

Payne, A. L., Kubicki, A., and Wilcox, D. G., 1974, Range condition guides for the West Kimberley area, Western 

Australia: Department of Agriculture, Western Australia.

Prescott, J. A., 1934, Single value climatic factors: Transactions 

of the Royal Society, South Australia, v. 58, p. 48.

————1949, Climatic expressions and generalized climatic zones 

in relation to soils and vegetation: Specialist Conferences in 

Agriculture, Adelaide and Canberra, Proceedings.

Richley, L. R., 1979, Land systems of Tasmania: Department of 

Agriculture, Tasmania.

Robinove, C. J., 1979, Integrated terrain mapping with digital 

LANDSAT images in Queensland, Australia: Washington, 

D.C., U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1102.

Simpson, C. J., and Perry, W. J., 1979, The application of 

LANDSAT in regional geological investigations: Landsat 79 

Conference, Sydney, Australia.

Specht, R. L., Roe, R. E., and Broughton, V. H., 1974, Conservation of major plant communities in Australia and Papua 

New Guinea: Australian Journal of Botany Supplement 

Series no. 7.

Story, M. A., Williams, M. A. J., Hooper, A. D. L., O'Ferrall, 

R. E., and McAlpine, J. R., 1969, Lands of the AdelaideAlligator area, Northern Territory: CSIRO, Australia, Land 

Resources Series no. 25.

Story, R., Galloway, R. W., McAlpine, J. R., Aldrick, J. M., 

and Williams, M. A. J., 1976, Lands of the Alligator River 

area: CSIRO, Australia, Land Resources Series no. 38.

Wilcox, D. G., and McKinnon, E. A., 1972, A report on the condition of the Gascoyne catchment: Department of 

Agriculture, Western Australia, and Department of Lands 

and Survey, Western Australia.

C. S. Christian

#6 Baudin Street

Forrest, Australian Capital Territory

Australia 2603

316 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Sidelooking Airborne Radar as a Tool for 

Natural Resources Mapping — 

The Brazilian Approach

O. Bittencourt

Chief, Projeto Radambrasil-Sede

Departamento Nacional da Producao Mineral, Brazil

First, I would like to thank the U.S. Geological Survey 

for the honor of receiving an invitation to participate in 

this symposium. I am going to talk about some aspects of 

the use of Sidelooking airborne radar in the mapping of 

natural resources, principally in the Amazon environment.

When mapping natural resources in the Amazon environment, it is necessary to produce information for the 

legislators regarding resource distribution and potential in 

order to achieve the best use of the land. But at this point, 

to furnish this kind of basic information you have to go 

through different kinds of maps —soil maps, geologic

NOT RENEWABLE

maps, climate maps, and so on. To produce these maps we 

have to acquire some basic information concerning 

nonrenewable resources (geology), and renewable 

resources — climate, soil, relief, and vegetation (fig. 1). 

Most of this information is collected by field work that is 

indicated in the middle columns of figure 1. The columns 

indicate how to obtain the necessary information by means 

of sensors, field work, or laboratory studies. As one can 

see, most of the basic information can be obtained from 

field work and some of it from laboratory studies. Some 

information, relating to relief, comes directly from the 

sensor.

GEOLOGY

INFORMATION

LITHOLOGY

STRATIGRAPHY

STRUCTURE

MACRO

MICRO

CHEMICAL ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS

SEDIMENTOLOGICAL 

ANALYSIS

SOURCES

0

•

•

•

3 3

•

r^ METALLOGENETI-

^iTFrTDNirAI MAP

^ 1 HYDROGEOLOGI1 CAL MAP

RENEWABLE

CLIMATE

O

s

VEGETATION

PRECIPITATION QUANTITY

TION

TEMPERATURE

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION

CLASSIFICATION

MORPHOLOGY

COLOR

TEXTURE

STRUCTURE

DEEPNESS

CHEMICAL COMPOUND

PHYSICAL COMPOUND

ALTITUDE

LANDFORMS

DISSECTION ENERGY

STABILITY

DRAINAGE

ECOLOGICAL REGIONS 

(PHYSIONOMYI

STRUCTURE

FORESTAL INVENTORY

•

•

•

•

•

•

BOTANICAL IDENTIFICATION

CARTOG RAPHY

•

•

•

.

——— ^^CLIMATDLDGICAL 

———— \^\ MAPS

S SOILS MAP

^\l GEOMORPHOLO-

| PHYTOGEOGRAix. PHICAL MAP 

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LOCALIZATION

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———— IX\ HYDROLOGICAL 1 _______ 

———— ^^ RESOURCES MAPI ——————

' ———— |X\> AGRICULTURAL 

———— ^^ SUITABILITY MAP

———— ^x. EXPLOITABILITY

Figure 1 Natural resources mapping sequence and methods.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 317
The great advantage of any sensor, in our case radar, 

is that it is a precise indicator of where you should make 

your field observations and the possibility of the extrapolation of that information.

The aspect of radar which led us to use it is its capability of penetrating fog, smog, clouds and light rain. 

Figure 2 shows an example of an aerial photograph taken 

with infrared film simultaneously with the radar survey. 

The cloud cover was penetrated by the radar in the 

Amazon environment.

Mapping natural resources with radar follows the 

same conventional method of mapping as with other sensors; that is, interpretation, field work, re-interpretation, 

and final reports and maps. For example, there is one very 

homogeneous area that represents 10 percent of the 

Amazon (500,000 square kilometers). With limited sampling you can extrapolate for the rest of the area and produce a reliable classification of the land features (fig. 3). 

Other areas have very complex geology or climate that produce very complex soils and vegetation. For such areas, it 

takes longer to produce land classification of the same 

reliability (fig. 4). Though these are very complex areas, 

and not homogeneous, it demonstrates one of the advantages of radar: it gives you a general idea as to where you 

have to do most of your field work.

After the entire area of the Amazon was surveyed by 

radar, it became easy to separate what is forest from what 

is not forest (fig. 5). The forested area is located on the 

middle and bottom of the figure and the savanna on the 

middle top.

Another aspect of the radar system is the emphasis on 

relief. On the left (fig. 6) a radar image is enlarged to the 

same scale as the aerial photograph on the right. The difference in visible relief is easily seen.

Figure 2 Radar image (left) and infra-red aerial photo (right) taken simultaneously showing the penetrability of radar radiation 

through the clouds.

318 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
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Morphology

Composition

Color

Texture

Structure

Depth

Chemical

Physical

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Landforms

Dissection Energy

Stability

Drainage

Ecological Regions

Structure

Forest Inventory

Botanical Identification

Localization

Toponymy

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Figure 3 Tertiary and Quaternary cover as they appear in radar image. A very simple area for regional mapping; with few samples it 

is possible to "map" large areas.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 319
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Morphology

Composition

Color

Texture

Structure

Depth

Chemical

Physical

Altitude

Landforms

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Stability

Drainage

Ecological Regions

Structure

Forest Inventory

Botanical Identification

Localization

Toponymy

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Figure 4 A complex area to be mapped. Here a greater number of field missions is necessary to obtain the same reliable level of information of figure 3.

320 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
>- 

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Micro

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Temperature

Evapotranspiration

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Depth

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Toponymy

Obtained by

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Figure 5 In the Amazon region the different types of major units of vegetation are clearly seen. On the middle top there is a savanna, 

contrasting with the dense forest on the rest of the photo.

I

Figure 6 Emphasis on relief is one of the advantages of the radar image. On the left, a portion of the radar 

image was enlarged to the same scale as B-W infra-red to the right.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 321
Figure 7 The possibility of visualization of large areas helps the understanding of the whole region. Here an area of 240,000 sq. km 

shows its main physiographic aspects.

The synoptic view that can be obtained with radar 

facilitates the understanding of the region as a whole. In 

figure 7 we see an area of 240,000 square kilometers, and 

the principal aspects of the region that are reflected by the 

relief are easily identified.

Because field study was necessary and most of the 

areas were inaccessible by land, we had to use helicopters. 

There was a very intensive use of them in order to open 

clearings in the places preselected by the technicians for 

field examination. More than 3,000 clearings had to be 

opened during the seven-year job, in addition to the missions along the rivers and the few existing roads (fig. 8). A 

specialized team trained for forest survival went down 

from the helicopter by rope to open the clearing (fig. 9). 

That was a one- or two-day job. On the following day 

geologists, pedologists, forest engineers, geomorphologists, ecologists, and so on, joined them and made 

their observations.

Now, in order to recommend the best use of Amazon 

land we had to know the way of life of the natives who live 

there (figs. 10 and 11). We learned about their customs, 

their views, why they do not get malaria, why they do not

have more than three children, why they do not allow the 

community to become larger and larger. How do they live 

in equilibrium with the Amazon environment? This helps a 

lot in recommending new settlement in the Amazon.

Figure 8 Clearing opened to allow the technicians to make field 

observations in inaccessible regions.

322 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Figure 9 The use of helicopters turned out to be the only way to Figure 10 Indian house in the Amazon region, 

reach inaccessible localities.

Figure 11 Knowledge of Indian customs helped in suggesting how to live in harmony with the forest.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 323
Another very useful aspect of radar imagery is the 

possibility of the user being able to compare the maps produced from it with the radar image. The user can differentiate what is a known fact or reliable data from what is interpretation or extrapolation. In the image shown in figure 

12, some aspects of the relief can be seen that are reflected

Figure 12 Portion of radar image to be compared with the 

thematic maps, figs. 13-18.

in the maps made from this image. The circular structure 

in the central part of figure 12 is immediately identified on 

the geological maps, geomorphological maps, soil maps, 

soil capability maps, vegetation maps, and potential land 

use maps (figs. 13-18). Thus, if the user has the maps and 

also can have the original image he can more easily judge 

what can or can not be trusted on the maps.

Figure 13 Geological map of the area of figure 12.

Figure 14 Geomorphological map of the area of figure 12. Figure 15 Soil map of the area of figure 12.

324 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Figure 16 Suitability for agriculture map of the area of figure 12. Figure 17 Phytoecological (vegetation) map of the area of figure 12.

Hi, Ul

,CC02

Figure 18 Potential land use map of the area of figure 12.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 325
One of the most unexpected phenomena in the geology 

of the Amazon was the number of circular structures 

found in the mapping. At least 200 of them were located 

and claims have been filed for most of them. Figure 19 

shows the location of some of the circular structures. The 

colors represent the different rock types. Figure 20 is an example of how these structures appear in the radar imagery. 

The structure shown on figure 20 contains important 

amounts of cerium, niobium, thorium, and zinc, and is 

supposed to be a carbonatite.

Figure 21 shows a very interesting structure on the 

border of a big graben; it was unknown before the radar 

image came out.

MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY 

NATIONAL DEPARTMENT OF MINERAL PRODUCTION

MAP SHOWING LOCATION OF

CIRCULAR STRUCTURES IN AMAZONIA

IDENTIFIED FOR THE RADAM PROJECT

BY INTERPRETATION OF RADAR

IMAGES AND FIELD WORK

EXPLANATION

Circular 

Structures

* Not yet sampled

* Anatectic and

palingenic

granites 

Subvolcanic

cratogenic

granites 

Nepheline syenites

* Alkaline 

ultrabasics

* Alkaline syenites

h.

Figure 19 Circular structures mapped in Amazon. Different colors mean different geochemical characteristics.

326 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
^ft^3fc3iP«&Vja&& i

- w- -

~ * -

Figure 20 Circular structure discovered during the mapping Figure 21 Circular structure associated with a graben shown by

survey. This particular one turned out to be a carbonatite. It is 5 radar image for the first time. The structure is 5 kilometers in

kilometers in diameter. diameter.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 327
As a final result of the job in the Amazon, maps of its 

natural resources were prepared. The area that has already 

been published corresponds to 4 million square kilometers. 

Figure 22 shows the geomorphological units that were 

grouped in the map and represents the distribution of the 

main relief forms.

Timber resource maps (fig. 23) represent vegetation 

groups with differential amounts of timber. The total 

amount of Amazonian timber was estimated at 10 billion 

cubic meters.

Conservation is one of the most important items of 

natural resources exploitation. Areas like the one shown in 

figure 24 have to be preserved. Here a very dense and rich

forest is underlain by a sandy soil. No more nutrients are 

present here. If this forest were cut down no other vegetation like this would grow, and erosion would degrade the 

terrain rapidly. A lot of environmental problems occur all 

over the Amazon. The unstable equilibrium must be maintained in the regions under these conditions; therefore 

those areas with unstable ecosystems are proposed for protection as national forests, national parks, and so on. 

Forty or fifty percent have been proposed for preservation 

because they present ecological problems (fig. 25).

Figure 22 Geomorphologic units of the Amazon based on 

RADAM survey.

MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY 

NATIONAL DEPARTMENT OF MINERAL PRODUCTION

EXPLANATION 

Schematic Divisions of Relief 

High elevated plains 23.5%

Dissected elevated plains 29.0% 

Smooth surfaces 12.0% 

Coastal plain 2.2% 

Fluvial plain 6.4% 

Depressions 26.9% 

AREA TOTAL 4,316,960 KM2

RADAMBRASIL PROJECT

500 

i I

1000 KILOMETERS

328 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY 

NATIONAL DEPARTMENT OF MINERAL PRODUCTION

EXPLANATION

POTENTIAL TIMBER ZONE 

IN THE TROPICAL FOREST

REGION OF DENSE FOREST 

£1 Up to 100m3/hectare

HJ From 100 to 200m3 /hectare 

JH Above 200m3/hectare

REGION OF OPEN FOREST 

HI Up to lOOmVhectare

BB From 100 to 150m3/hectare

OTHER TYPES OF VEGETATION 

_ Savanna, steppe, scrub

RADAMBRASIL PROJECT

0 500

I i i i i I

1000 KILOMETERS

Figure 23 Potential timber exploration map of Amazon. 

Resource Mapping in Brazil 329
Figure 24 Very unstable area that must be preserved where a dense forest lies over a sandy soil area. 

330 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
MINISTRY OF MINES AND ENERGY 

NATIONAL DEPARTMENT OF MINERAL PRODUCTION

CONSERVATION OF NATURE

0 500 

I i i i I 1

1000 KILOMETERS 

_1

EXPLANATION

PROTECTED

I. GURIPI

II. CAXIUANA

III. GOROTIRE

IV. TUMUCUMAQUE

V. TAPAJOS

VI. AMAZONIA

VII. MUNDURUCANIA 

VIII. PARIMA

IX. RIO NEGRO

X. JARU

PROPOSALS

1. PNAC LENCOIS MARANHENSES

2. REBIO RIO BACURI

3. REBIO RIO MEARIM

4. PNAC VEREDAO

5. PNAC MESAS DE CAROLINA

6. FLONA BACAJA-ITACAIUNAS

7. REBIO CAMPOS DO MOJU

8. REBIO CAMPOS DO ANAUERA

9. REBIO LAGO PIRATUBA

10. PNAC CABO ORANGE

11. FLONA AMAPA

12. REBIO RIO MAPAONI

13. PNAC PARINTINS

14. FLONA TROMBETAS

15. REBIO RIO POANA

16. PNAC LAGO CARACARANA

17. PNAC PEDRA PINTADA

18. REBIO MONTE RORAIMA

19. PNAC PARIMA PACARAIMA

20. FLONA RORAIMA

21. FLONA SERRA MER

22. PNAC PICO DA NEBLINA

23. PNAC RIO NEGRO

24. FLONA RIO SOLIMOES

25. REBIO SERRA DOS TRES IRMAOS

26. REBIO SERRA DO DOPIANE

27. FLONA SUL DO ACRE

28. FLONA ALTO VALE DO JURUA

AREA MAPPED-4,300,000 km2 

CONSERVATION OF NATURE-30%

»«•*'•;. Protected Units 150,000 km2 

„_ National Forests 145,000 km2

^•| Parks and Equivalent Reserves 147,000 km

^TM (Preservation for scientific inquiry)

-Conditioned utilization to specific studies

700,000 km2 

Permanent Preservation (Forest Code)

300,000 km2

Figure 25 Areas of unstable ecosystems that require preservation.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 331
Radar imagery has also been used for other purposes 

in order to help in the exploration for natural resources. 

Figure 26 is an instructive example of the use of radar in 

the location of dam sites for hydroelectric power plants. It 

is easy to identify the two natural "shoulders" that should 

be linked by a dam in order to build a reservoir.

Radar imagery has also been used in selecting the best 

routes for road construction. One should never recommend building a road on the edge of the plateau shown in 

the right half of figure 27, because of accelerated erosion. 

This is precisely why the existing road should never have 

been built.

The use of geophysical maps enlarged to the same 

scale as the radar helps to locate anomalies (fig. 28).

Some attempts have been made to print information 

directly over the imagery. This is a kind of accessibility 

map (fig. 29). The green represents forested areas, and the 

white indicates parks. The topography is seen very easily; 

one can identify the flat terrain and so on.

In another field of research we are trying to print all 

planimetric information directly over the radar image (fig.

5 10 KILOMETERS 

I

Figure 26 Natural "shoulders" that can be used if a dam must 

be constructed in this area.

Figure 27 Areas of great risk of erosion (plateau border). Note 

road skirting edge of dissected area.

30). This is being done with the collaboration of the U.S. 

Geological Survey staff, specifically Francis Lopez and 

E. W. Vickers. Additional test maps will be made to determine what area tint design is best to print over the radar 

maps to clearly show thematic data without detracting 

from the details of the terrain.

Some research is being done to combine radar and 

Landsat images. The research is in the beginning stages 

and, although the first results are not good, they are very 

promising. The main idea is to combine the advantages of 

the relief of the radar with the spectrum given by Landsat.

The Amazon region represents 60 percent of Brazilian 

territory. The challenge we are facing now is how to 

transform this huge natural resource area into actual 

benefit for all, while keeping in mind that man has to be a 

builder and not a spoiler of nature.

O. Bittencourt

Chief, Projeto Radambrasil-Sede

Rua Pernambuco, 4-Pituba

40000-Salvador-Bahia

Brazil

10 KILOMETERS

332 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
i-?:vifc-;»

Figure 28 Comparison between radar image (right) and 

magnetometric map (left) showing the similarity between the 

geologic structures.

Figure 29 Accessibility map. The relief is easily seen and it is not difficult to separate the flat from the hilly terrain. Green areas mean 

dense forest cover contrasting with the savannas and parks represented by the white color.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 333
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334 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
FOLHA SD.21-Z-C

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Figure 30 Planimetric information overprinted on radar image.

Resource Mapping in Brazil 335
Comments from the Floor

J. Balsley (USGS): I would like to ask 

our guest from Australia if your maps are 

now available for distribution? How 

many geologists know of their existence? 

Have they been listed in the bibliographic 

indices?

C. Christian (Australia): The land 

system maps are produced in a series 

called "Land Research Series" by CSIRO 

for its surveys. The State authorities such 

as the Western Australia and Queensland 

Departments of Agriculture, the State 

Soils Conservation Commissions, etc., all 

produce maps —but not from just one 

source. They have been distributed quite 

widely.

L. Sodre (Brazil): How long have you 

been using the wonderful, elaborate 

method in Australia? How does it work in 

practice?

C. Christian: The work started in 

1946, with 27,000 square miles being completed in that first year. Maps were produced in 1947. That was a rapid survey 

and none has since been completed so 

quickly. Work has been continuing since 

by CSIRO or the State Departments. The 

method has also been used quite widely in 

Africa, Asia, and parts of South America.

J. Balsley: Has it resulted in improvement?

C. Christian: CSIRO being a Federal 

government authority has no responsibility for the next stage of implementation. That depends on the government of 

the State. In the case of the Northern Territory, detailed follow-up work proceeded. There was a research station set 

up and agriculture research done, and 

subsequently land unit surveys in areas to 

apply those results. In Victoria, surveys 

were started by the Soil Conservation 

Commission primarily for soil conservation purposes. The results have been applied directly to State land use planning 

and used for surveying of grazing and 

livestock lands and determining safe 

carrying capacities and management programs. Queensland has used it similarly. 

Western Australia has a rehabilitation 

program for overgrazed areas and plans 

for pasture improvement. These are some 

examples only. Its application has been 

varied but it has been very wide.

J. Jones (USGS): What interface is 

there between the geologists, the soils 

scientists, and the soils engineers to control the very severe problem of soil erosion 

and also to utilize the soils in the country's 

best interest?

M.V.N. Murthy (India): In the 

district work that the Geological Survey 

of India undertook, fortunately for us, 

the district had already been soil mapped. 

They then interacted with the scientists 

who had worked on it and their geologists 

and geomorphologists established a 

dialogue with them. Open discussion and 

interaction occurred. The Geological 

Survey does not do any soil mapping but 

we have close interaction.

O. Bittencourt (Brazil): In our country, soils maps are made just for agricultural purposes. Some geologists do soil 

surveys for engineering.

K. Minden (USGS): What do you 

foresee as the main land uses that you 

recommend in the Amazon area of Brazil 

in the next ten years?

O. Bittencourt: Forestry. There are 

10 billion cubic meters of timber. On an 

average of 50 dollars per cubic meter, 

Brazil has 500 billion dollars' worth of 

timber. There will be a serious ecological 

problem when they cut down the trees. 

What they are doing is a kind of 

zoning — categorizing vegetable oil exploration, tree resources for alcohol, 

mineral prospects. Fish is a very 

underdeveloped resource in the Amazon. 

Mining is already a reality.

F. Lopez (USGS): You suggest that 

some areas are very poor in soil and 

therefore have to be reserved. Are your 

recommendations going to be acted upon 

or is there a law that assures that the area 

won't be touched — or will this be debated 

in Congress or by various interests?

O. Bittencourt: No. We just make 

recommendations for the legislators. 

There are many agencies in charge of 

these different aspects. The Brazilian Institute for Forest Development is in 

charge of the national parks and forests. 

The biggest problems now are the companies who are in there right now. They 

just do not take anything into consideration. They just cut the timber down.

F. Lopez: There is no law that 

prevents them from doing this?

O. Bittencourt: There are too many 

laws — that's the problem.

D. McLaren (Canada): In regard to 

Dr. Kursten's very interesting definition of 

the environment, has he noticed 

something that appears to be a law in my 

country? There seems to be an inverse 

relationship between concern for the environment and the number of people 

around. The area where I live seems to 

matter very much less than that land occupied by the polar bear. Can it be that in 

virgin country we have a better opportunity of insuring that we don't make the 

same mistakes that we have already made 

in our cities?

M. Kursten (Federal Republic of Germany): First, your observation is true. 

The less people, the larger the land, the 

less the environmental questions will be of 

concern. In developing a region of the 

country today we should pay attention to 

what will be the long-term effects, according to our bad experiences we have had in 

the industrialized regions.

B. Hageman (The Netherlands): In 

respect to McLaren's question, I think it is 

rather dangerous when a country does not 

pay attention to the environment. When 

you are trying to build an infrastructure, 

which becomes rich at a certain moment, 

which is not based on such a consideration, it is lost forever. We know it in the 

Netherlands. It is one of the worst infrastructures costing a lot of money every 

day. I think that that kind of money can 

be saved in the developing countries from 

the beginning, basing the infrastructure 

on geologic considerations. It should start 

today, not tomorrow.

T. N. Basu (India): The problems of 

developing countries, insofar as environmental control is concerned, are 

somewhat different. We use 45-50 percent 

of the total energy as non-commercial in 

the form of vegetable waste and cow 

dung. Unless we can find an alternate 

source, we are making deforestation with 

resultant soil erosion leading to floods 

causing great problems; all this is done to 

meet the rural needs of energy which is absolutely non-monetized today.

336 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
L. Sodre: In regard to the developed 

versus the underdeveloped countries, 

everyone is in different stages of 

development—even the United States and 

Europe. There are different problems but 

of different natures. We should consider 

development in different steps. Deforestation, pollution—we should learn from 

others who are having these problems.

J. Balsley: There are areas in the 

United States that are less developed than

many parts of the world (northern Maine 

and Alaska). I think that the theme of this 

whole conference is that there is a great 

unanimity of the need to bring the information to the people who make decisions. 

We are going to publish the proceedings 

of this conference and I am personally 

going to do everything that I can to have a 

short version prepared so that we can each 

take it back to our own legislators and 

hope to get the word to them. We all agree 

and have a common feeling that there is

much information that can be brought to 

the attention of the people who make the 

decisions, whether it is the engineers 

building the roads in the wrong place or 

whatever. We've got to get the word back 

to the people who make the decisions. We 

will do everything we can from this conference to summarize that feeling into a 

short, we hope simple, presentation that 

the non-scientist can understand. It is the 

decision makers in our own countries who 

have not gotten the message.

Comments from the Floor 337
Prospects for the Future

The Glomar Explorer. Photograph courtesy of Terry Edgar, U.S. 

Geological Survey.

338 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
New Opportunities for Geologists

Philip H. Abelson

Editor, Science Magazine 

Washington, D.C.

It is a privilege to participate in this great occasion, 

celebrating the Centennial of the United States Geological 

Survey. The presence of distinguished geologists from 

many lands attests to the respect and affection that all of 

us hold for this institution. During the past hundred years, 

it has been a leader in the development of geology, both in 

the United States and in many other countries.

Today, the USGS, as well as world geology in general, 

faces new tasks and new opportunities. Demands for new 

sources of energy and raw materials have come at a time 

when the easy-to-discover resources have already been 

found. Geologists must probe more avidly and effectively 

than ever before. They must find means of discovering 

hitherto hidden reserves of oil, gas, and mineral deposits. 

Fortunately, a large number of tools have been created or 

will soon become available, that will enable geologists to 

obtain the kinds of information they need to aid them in 

discovering resources and attaining a better understanding 

of the Earth and the processes that have brought it to its 

present state.

This afternoon I will discuss some recent developments and describe some tools for providing better insights. I will begin by talking about discoveries at the East 

Pacific Rise, then speak about a prospective drilling ship 

that is likely to be a successor to the Glomar Challenger. I 

will point to achievements and prospects for reflection 

seismometry. I will then turn briefly to discussion of the 

prospective impact of advances in data processing, 

storage, and retrieval.

A most remarkable recent set of observations by the 

submersibles, Cyana and Alvin, at the East Pacific Rise 

has provided insight with respect to mechanisms of ore formation. At latitude 21 °, fluid with a temperature of 400° C 

emerges from an undersea ridge. This is above the critical 

temperature of water, but the ridge lies 2,500 meters 

beneath the surface and the pressure of about 250 atmospheres is above the critical pressure (fig. 1).

Figure 1 Regional map showing site of dive by the submersible 

Alvin in March 1979 to explore vents on the East Pacific Rise 

(figure courtesy NSF; caption courtesy of IUGS, Episodes, v. 

1979, no. 4).

Near the sea floor vents are massive sulfide deposits. 

Elements present include iron, zinc, lead, copper, silver, 

gold, and platinum. If the sulfides were present in quantity 

on land, the deposit would constitute a very valuable ore 

body.

New Opportunities for Geologists 339
It seems evident that very hot sea water under pressure 

is an effective agent for mobilizing transition elements 

from silicates and that sulfides are soluble in the fluid. 

Already James Bischoff of the U.S. Geological Survey has 

come up with an interesting explanation for what is occurring. He has applied laboratory data developed by Professor Heinrich Holland and co-workers at Harvard 

University. Bischoff points out that at 400° C and 450 atmospheres, the solubility of sphalerite is about 35 orders of 

magnitude greater than it is at 400° C and 250 atmospheres. At 450 atmospheres the fluid has a density approaching 0.8, while at 250 atmospheres the density is only 

about 0.25. Bischoff believes that sea water penetrates to a 

depth of 2 kilometers below the sea floor to the vicinity of 

a magma chamber. There it attains its elevated temperature and is under a pressure of 450 atmospheres. The hot 

water dissolves some silica and liberates trace-metal cations. Sulfide is obtained in part from reduction of sulfate 

in sea water by ferrous silicates and in part from sulfides in 

basalt.

Bischoff does not mention the important variable, pH, 

which is influenced by the nature of the host rock. At 

elevated temperatures the pH tends to be lowered and this 

would lead to a lower activity of doubly ionized sulfur. In 

addition, the ionization constants for dissociation of H2S 

may be quite different in water, depending on pressure and 

temperature. Thus, there is much we still do not know 

about the mechanisms involved. Information obtained at 

the East Pacific Rise is not directly transferable to ore formation involving, for example, granitic rocks. However, 

the observation that hot water under pressure is a 

remarkable solvent opens the door to new concepts of ore 

formation.

We can expect that other explanations will be offered 

for the sea bottom sulfides at the East Pacific Rise. We can 

look forward to intensive interaction between field observations and laboratory experiments and to further crucial 

discoveries by observers on Cyana and Alvin. In consequence, within a few years a markedly improved understanding of ore-forming processes should be attained.

During the past 12 years, the Glomar Challenger has 

probed much of the ocean floors outside the Arctic. Some 

750 holes have been drilled at 500 sites. All sediments examined have been no older than Jurassic. The younger 

rocks have been found at the midocean ridges and older 

ones distant from them. The Deep Sea Drilling Program 

has made many other discoveries but, while a tremendous 

success, has been forced to avoid some important areas, 

particularly ocean margins where sediments are likely to 

contain gas and oil.

A proposal is now being considered at high U.S. levels 

to equip an existing larger ship with risers and blowout 

preventers. This ship would have the capability of reaching 

depths 11,000 feet below sea level. The length of the riser 

would be 4,000 meters. Since the ocean margins contain

about half of the world's volume of sedimentary rocks the 

renovated ship, the Glomar Explorer, could be expected to 

provide information leading to development of important 

petroleum reserves. One function of the drilling ship would 

be to provide "ground truth" that would interact very 

favorably with new and future powerful tools of seismic exploration. Another potential result of the exploration would 

be discovery of ore deposits. Studies of the ocean margins 

could be expected to provide valuable insights to geologists 

concerning the origin and evolution of continents.

Drilling would not be confined to the margins. The 

ship would have the capability of drilling deep into the 

floor of the oceans. It would also be expected to examine 

the ocean ridges and to obtain from them information 

about mechanisms of ore formation.

Until a few years ago, knowledge about the subsurface 

geology of the United States was limited largely to information obtained in drilling for oil in sedimentary basins. 

But during the last few years a program has been supported that is probing the Earth to a depth of 30 to 70 

kilometers. The equipment being used was originally 

developed by Continental Oil Company for oil exploration. A group of university scientists led by Professor Jack 

Oliver of Cornell has applied it to deeper strata.

The equipment, which bears the trade name Vibroseis, 

is designed to observe reflected sound waves with frequencies of 8 to 30 hertz vibrators. An array of 96 stations, each 

with 24 geophones, forms the observing network. The data 

thus obtained are processed by computers. The consortium 

of universities called Cocorp has made nine major 

traverses of important geological features, such as the 

uplift at Wind River in Wyoming.

Perhaps the most important advance has been made in 

studies of the eastern United States. In 1978 Cocorp completed a traverse extending from the Valley and Ridge 

Province of Tennessee to the contact between the Piedmont and Coastal Plain in Georgia. The results proved the 

presence of sedimentary rocks beneath crystalline rocks. 

The observations together with some made by the U.S. 

Geological Survey show that there has been large-scale 

overthrusting of the Paleozoic continental margin of the 

proto-Atlantic. Overthrusting may have been 260 

kilometers horizontally. Apparently the overthrusting has 

involved a very large area and the sediments that have been 

covered are a potential source of substantial amounts of 

natural gas.

During the past year I made 2-day visits to 16 leading 

industrial research and development laboratories of this 

country, including leaders in electronics such as IBM, Bell 

Laboratories, General Electric, Texas Instruments, 

Hewlett-Packard, and Xerox. I was shown advances in 

microelectronics and instrumentation, some of which have 

not yet been publicly announced. New and more powerful 

tools will become available for all branches of earth 

sciences.

340 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Basically, what is happening is a continuing rapid increase in capabilities for computation and information 

storage. In addition, there have been created far more efficient methods of design and fabrication of special 

microelectronic circuits. These new types of circuits are being used in conjunction with instrumentation to give it 

enhanced capabilities. For example, I saw a spectrophotometer capable of measuring the entire spectrum 

from 2,000 to 8,000 angstroms in 1 second. The equipment 

includes a microcomputer with a memory that can store 

known spectra and compare them to the absorption caused 

by a complex mixture of elements. Results are stored in the 

computer but can be displayed on a screen or printed out. 

This equipment will become especially useful in the 

analysis of trace elements.

At Texas Instruments, which owns Geophysical Services, I was briefed on their new development and procedures in reflection seismometry. The equipment incorporates advances in microelectronics and in computational 

capability. They have expanded the number of geophones 

in an array to as many as 1,024 and are contemplating as 

many as 3,000. In addition, they utilize closely spaced 

traverses and thus accumulate an enormous amount of 

detailed data. Using such procedures, one can obtain 

greatly improved resolution and information about the 

nature of the different strata involved. They can 

distinguish, as examples, between gas-sand, gas-oil, shale, 

and limestone.

The observational data are processed by a computer 

with enormous computational capabilities. It can incorporate ground truth from existing wells. In any event, the 

final result is equivalent to well logs. Three-dimensional information can be presented on a screen. That is, geologists 

can examine sections at any angle to the horizontal or 

vertical.

An item in the Oil and Gas Journal for August 6 of 

this year [1979] has given a practical example of the power 

of the new equipment. The article describes the discovery 

of a gas field in the Gulf of Siam that contains 1.3 trillion 

cubic feet proved, 5.9 trillion proved and probable. The 

field is in a hinge line area characterized by complex 

faulting that controls hydrocarbon entrapment. The concessions involved had previously been owned and explored 

by Tenneco and British Petroleum. Using older methods of 

seismic exploration, they had failed to discover the 

reserves. The new three-dimensional methods of exploration involved towing a string of 250 geophones on 130 

lines, 100 meters apart. Following processing of the information, four wells were drilled with 100 percent success. 

The first well flowed at a rate of 62 million cubic feet per 

day plus 1,129 barrels per day of condensate. Other wells 

cut faults within 20 feet of predicted depths and flowed 

nearly comparable amounts of gas and condensate. The 

owners of the concession are sufficiently confident in the 

seismic data that they feel they can proceed with planning

the development of the field with a minimum of further exploratory wells.

The usefulness of this type of equipment will not be 

confined to exploration for oil and gas. R. J. Graebner of 

Geophysical Services is naturally enthusiastic about additional applications of the three-dimensional equipment. 

He believes that it will have important roles in both coal 

and mineral exploration and development.

Some of the tools and developments arising out of 

electronics are predictable, but still in the future. You are 

all familiar with results that have been obtained with 

remote sensing imagery, including side-looking radar and 

Landsat satellites. Further increases in capabilities of such 

equipment are on their way.

The Landsat-D satellite that is scheduled for late 1981 

will include additional sensors using the wavelengths 2.2 

and 1.6 microns in addition to the channels used earlier. 

The 2.2 micron spectral scan will facilitate mapping of 

limonite-bearing rocks and groups of minerals associated 

with hydrothermal alternations.

Equipment has been proposed for the Space Shuttle 

designed to look at fairly narrow spectral bands in the 

wavelength region 0.4 to 2.5 microns. A total of ten spectral bands is contemplated.

Another opportunity involves the use of thermal infrared techniques employing sensors for 8 to 14 micron 

radiation. One looks at diurnal heating and cooling. From 

the spectral emissivity, one can distinguish silicate from 

nonsilicate rocks.

Improvements in information storage and retrieval 

will come as a most welcome development to geologists 

and all scientists. We are faced with an enormous proliferation of facts and literature. The quantity is so great as 

to be disheartening. Yet it constitutes an enormous 

resource if it can be selectively retrieved and presented. 

Developments are occurring that portend a revolution in 

data analysis and retrieval.

In the United States a number of organizations, both 

governmental and commercial, are moving to place vast 

quantities of information in electronic storage. For example, at Science magazine, we were recently approached by a 

company that proposed to store the complete text of the 

magazine. They even plan to begin with issues 4 years 

back. Customers for this material are corporations engaged in research and development who can afford to pay.

Another example involves Science magazine as a user 

of electronically-stored material. We have a computer terminal that allows us to tap into the world's biomedical 

literature. The compiler of it is the National Library of 

Medicine. We can quickly locate desired material through 

use of key words.

Some earth scientists have been aware of opportunities 

for applying electronic storage and retrieval to geology, 

and are enthusiastic about its potential usefulness.

New Opportunities for Geologists 341
Consider, for example, the problems faced by an earth 

scientist wishing to make comparisons of the chemical 

analyses of rocks. A tremendous amount of information 

exists but the more than 100,000 analyses are scattered 

among many thousands of volumes of journals. Even if 

the information were gathered together and printed in 

books, all the data, including rock type, location, age, 

mineralogy, methods of analysis, trace elements, and other 

pertinent information, would occupy a bookshelf perhaps 

2 meters long. Such a data bank would still be unmanageable. But suppose all the information were stored 

in an electronic memory. A computer could then be used to 

do any kind of sorting of the analyses. For example, one 

could ask the computer to prepare a list of all Miocene 

basalts possessing 3 percent or more titanium. Many other 

sets of sorting criteria could be employed.

Preparation of this new information resource 'is just 

beginning. The work will require efforts of many people in 

many countries. It is fitting, therefore, that the effort 

which is headed by Felix Chayes of the Geophysical 

Laboratory in Washington is being conducted as a project 

of the International Geological Correlation Program.

Another potential tool, but one that is some distance 

from achievement, is to place the world's geological maps 

in electronic storage. There now exist all the techniques for 

accomplishing the deed, and for subsequent display of 

colored maps on video screens. Hard copies could be obtained from the stored information.

One of the advantages of electronic storage of information is, of course, the relatively instantaneous availability of a selected piece of information, whether it is a 

map or a chemical analysis. The major advantage, though,

lies in the ease and speed with which one can sort the data 

and, if desired, make comparisons among selected classes 

of data or other kinds of manipulations.

At the moment, these potentialities are some distance 

away, and they can be expensive, given today's level of 

electronic technology. However, costs of memory and 

computation have been decreasing rapidly and prospects 

are good for a continuation of this trend. Furthermore, as 

interested earth scientists become more proficient with 

computers, they will develop improved methods of making 

the cogent kinds of data available.

In the short time available, I could only touch lightly 

on a few of the developments that will affect geology in the 

years ahead. The methods by which geologists examine the 

Earth will increase to include new tools. Particularly 

helpful will be opportunities to see the crust in three 

dimensions and the development of new knowledge concerning ocean margins, the genesis of ore deposits, and the 

evolution of continents. As geologists help fill great needs 

of society, they will also enjoy participating in exciting 

developments at the frontiers of knowledge.

Philip H. Abelson

Editor

Science Magazine

1515 Massachusetts Avenue, N.W.

Room 211

Washington, D.C. 20005

342 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
Earth History as Moral Science

R. Triimpy

President, International Union of Geological Sciences

Swiss and professors share one detestable habit —their 

moralizing attitude. Being thus doubly afflicted, I can, of 

course, not resist from indulging in this vice.

My intention is to speak up for the historical side of 

geology, for the side that gives its unique flavor to our 

science, with its glorious uncertainties which are so exciting 

to the mind and so difficult to explain to companies, to 

ministries, to students, and to our fellow citizens at large. 

There is some tendency to play down the importance of 

historical geology, to consider it as an old-fashioned and 

almost obsolete branch of the earth sciences and to 

minimize its role in teaching curricula. In some ways, this 

is understandable, as some of the greatest progress in 

geology in the last decades has come from its nonhistorical branches, such as geophysics and physical 

chemistry. But geology is more than physical chemistry applied to the Earth (and even more than physical chemistry 

plus spherical trigonometry). It is our task to integrate the 

findings on the present state of the Earth into their 

historical context. The present is the key to the past, but 

the past is also the key to the present and, hopefully, to the 

future. This of course leads up to the age-old question of 

uniformitarianism. Physical laws have not changed in the 

course of time; the same will hold for most physical constants. But we realize of course more and more that boundary conditions have changed in a very drastic manner, and 

that the present moment of Earth history is a rather exceptional one. These changes, some of them of cyclical and 

others of irreversible nature, have affected all geological 

and biological events. The simple extrapolation of presentday conditions fails to account for a large number of 

geological features. Local and global changes in the 

geothermal regime of the Earth are certainly among those 

that will have had the most significant effects. One of the 

challenges of the coming years, and one which has enormous impact on the study of economic deposits, is the 

more reliable determination of ancient geothermal gradients. On a recently published metamorphic map of the 

Canadian Shield, no symbol for high pressure/low 

temperature metamorphism occurs —no blueschist is 

found in this vast expanse of Precambrian rocks — whereas 

half of California and half of Japan are blue.

In the biological approach, the timing of geological 

events becomes of prime importance. We must have more 

reliable information on the contemporaneity and succession of geological phenomena, for instance on the question

whether crustal movements are really synchronous in 

various parts of a chain or even in different parts of the 

world.

If you allow me just one reference to my native Alpine 

playground: we are now fairly sure that the European rift 

system started to open precisely at the same time when the 

rate of crustal shortening in the Alps was at its maximum. 

The constant refining and standardization of the 

stratigraphical scale is not a mere academic exercise, but an 

essential prerequisite for answering such questions.

The same is true for transgressions and regressions of 

the sea. Great progress has been made in recent years, 

especially through the application of seismic stratigraphy, 

in unravelling the interplay between world-wide eustatic 

fluctuations and local influences, and again the economic 

implications are encouraging. But these preliminary results 

have to be calibrated more closely and their correlation 

with other events has to be examined.

Paleo-oceanography is on the way to becoming one of 

the most fascinating subjects of the geological sciences. 

Changes in the general regime of the oceans have had fundamental effects not only on the character of sedimentation but also on the development of life. It may or may not 

be a coincidence that the largest phosphate deposits were 

formed at times that also correspond to crises of biological 

evolution—near the Precambrian-Cambrian boundary, in 

the upper Permian and near the Cretaceous-Tertiary 

boundary.

Plate tectonics has given a tremendous boost to 

geological thinking and has at last provided a coherent 

model for the history of the Earth—certainly back to the 

mid-Permian, when the present cycle began, almost certainly back to the late Precambrian or, as some people 

believe, even further back. Plate tectonics has now come of 

age; it has become sadder but wiser —sadder in the old 

English sense, i.e. more earnest. We are beginning to 

realize that the simple and convincing original model 

works well enough for Atlantic-type oceans and for 

Circumpacific-type fold belts, but much less so for the 

Alpine-Himalayan belts, for the areas with intermediate 

types of crustal structure, including the Gulf of Mexico, 

and that it fails to account for most features of intracontinental deformations. There are also some troubling facts 

of regional geology, such as the apparent lack of an active 

plate boundary between northeastern Asia and northwestern North America.

Earth History as Moral Science 343
The lateral variations in the mantle —below oceans, 

margins, young and old foldbelts and cratons — appear to 

be much more considerable than was supposed. In some 

areas, even the concept of lithosphere is becoming elusive.

One cannot reasonably doubt the basic truths of plate 

tectonics, especially after the overwhelming proofs 

brought back from the deep-sea drilling cruises. But the 

theory of plate tectonics is still imperfect, and a number of 

complex mechanisms, which have been overlooked or even 

banned in the enthusiasms in the long-overdue breakthrough of mobilism, will have to be considered.

Oceanization, whatever that may mean, is a concept 

which appeals very much to me but not to many of my 

friends. The dogma of the absolute rigidity of plates, 

especially continental ones, is becoming more and more 

doubtful. More attention will have to be paid to the 

dynamics of continents, where after all most of us live and 

draw our resources from.

The heuristic value of plate tectonics is only beginning 

to emerge. Only a relatively small number of economic 

deposits, especially porphyry coppers and metals linked to 

the ophiolite suite, have hitherto been discovered by conscious reasoning along plate tectonics lines. The task of 

linking the very unequal distribution of resources is far 

from complete. As to natural hazards, the plate tectonics 

theory has been very successful in analyzing, and hopefully 

soon predicting, earthquakes in the Circumpacific belt. 

The latitudinal foldbelt and the interiors of the great continents, especially Asia, seem to obey less simple rules.

One of the inherent dangers, not only of plate, tectonics but of any successful model, lies in the readiness of 

scientists to apply the model to cases of which the basic 

facts are badly known. Models should be modified to fit 

the observations, and not vice versa. Jargon is another pitfall, and every so often the coining of a term will be a 

useful substitute for understanding. Here, the historical 

aspect of our interpretation can teach us humility and a 

healthy scepticism. Nobody, not even a white, male, francophile, liberal, Protestant-raised agnostic of advanced 

age and stable income can be perfectly objective; the 

utmost we can do is to become aware of our own bias.

The moral lesson of Earth history lies of course partly 

in its staggering duration. Everyone has one's own favorite 

device for reducing geological time to comprehensible 

dimensions. My personal favorite is one that I published a 

few years ago, and in which we simply take one second as 

equivalent to one year. Human lifetime thus lasts for one 

minute or a little longer. Our count-up begins at midnight 

of New Year's Eve, 1979.

On this scale, nuclear energy started twenty seconds 

ago, the use of petroleum products, two minutes ago. 

Fossil fuels were burnt fifteen minutes ago, and the water 

mill is about half an hour old. What is called history, that 

is, writing and the tradition of names such as King 

Lugalzaggesi of Eridu, date from 10:30 P.M. Mining

started at 9:00 P.M., but fire had already been used for 

much longer —since Christmas. Homo appeared in late 

November, preceded by his cousin Australopithecus in 

mid-November. Mammals are known from 1972, vertebrates from 1965, metazoa from the late 1950s, and 

eucaryotes from the mid 1940s. Life already existed in 

1880, and the origin of the Earth goes back to 1831. This 

period, the time of King Louis Philippe and of President 

Monroe, may appear hazy and far away to us; but we also 

know very little about Archaean dynamics and geochemistry.

Apart from the miracle of evolution itself, one of the 

remarkable facts is the stability of the complex equilibrium 

which has allowed the development of life. Of the multiple 

crises which have affected our planet, none has hitherto 

been able to wipe out life, or even the eucaryotes with their 

delicate genetic mechanism. Only in these days has one 

species acquired the potential to destroy itself and all 

others.

The moral lesson again is humility and responsibility. 

Discouragement is widespread, and progress is considered 

a dirty word in these days. Nevertheless, in the last one and 

a half hours of their existence, human beings have done a 

number of marvelous things, along with some pretty foul 

ones. They should be given the chance of lasting another 

hour or so. Under this aspect, the question of resources 

takes a different and less rosy color.

It is almost preposteous to admit a moderate degree of 

sceptical optimism in these days, where an energy, resources, environmental, food and sheer numbers crisis of 

humanity appears inevitable. Apart from the fact that 

despair is no very effective working hypothesis, the reasons 

for this little spark of optimism lie in the capacity for rapid 

advance of technology and in the first, still feeble signs of a 

global conscience.

The tasks ahead are formidable. Geologists alone will 

certainly not be able to solve them, but every one of us can 

make infinitesimal contributions. Development of new 

techniques and new ways of thinking for improved discovery, assessment and management of finite and 

renewable resources is one aspect; closely linked to it is the 

need to make the concerns of the geological community intelligible to the decision-makers at all levels, in the last instance to the people.

The other aspect is the rise of a feeling of planetary 

responsibility which has been brought home to many of us 

by looking at the photographs of the Earth seen from 

space. But here, we need to examine ourselves very closely. 

A patronizing attitude is deeply ingrained in many of us 

scientists from industrialized countries. We have to learn 

from the scientists in developing countries themselves what 

their real needs are, in the way of direct cooperation and 

especially in the way of training. The people of these countries must themselves decide on the balance they want to 

strike between the preservation of their environment and

344 Resources for the Twenty-first Century
industrialization, between conservation and exploitation 

of reserves. The sacrifices that certainly lie ahead of us 

should not be borne in the first line by the poor—meaning 

both poor countries and poor people in poor and rich 

countries.

In the foregoing enumeration—very incomplete and 

limited to the time aspect of geology—you may find many 

areas of concern to the scientific commissions of the International Union of Geologic Sciences, of the International 

Geological Correlation Program (with UNESCO), of the 

Geodynamics Program (with the International Union of 

Geology and Geophysics) and of a new inter-union program that is now under study. We try to make geologists 

from many countries share the excitement along the 

moving frontiers of the science and the responsibility of 

bringing a little relief to some of the problems of mankind. 

IUGS is a very small organization operating on a tiny 

budget, and must limit itself to the task of bringing

geologists together. Its only chance of achieving a small 

part of its aims lies in enlisting the help of international 

agencies and especially of the much stronger national 

bodies. The U.S. Geological Survey has contributed in a 

remarkable way to these aims, and on entering its second 

century it is well-equipped to continue playing a leading 

role both in the adventure and in the commitment of earth 

scientists.

R. Triimpy

President, International Union of Geological Sciences

Geologisches Institut

ETH-Zentrum

CH-8092

Zurich, Switzerland

Earth History as Moral Science 345