### 10

- D

- i APPENDIX 10

- D. EFFICIENCY TREND SEN SITIVITY ANALYSIS FO R SPLIT

SYSTEM CENTRAL AIR C ONDITIONER REPLACEME NT UNITS

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10

- D.1 EFFICIENCY TREND

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- D

- 1

10

- D.2 NES AND NPV RESULTS

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- D

- 4

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10

- D.1.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs, Sensitivity Case

.......... 10

- D

- 3

Table 10

- D.2.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NES

Resu lts from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector,

Sensitivity Case

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- D

- 4

Table 10

- D.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners : Cumulative National NPV

Results from 2016

- 2045, Sensitivity Case

................................ ............... 10

- D

- 4

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10

- D.1.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted ‘Default’ Efficiency

Trends for the Base Case and Standards Cases

................................ ....... 10

- D

- 1

Figure 10

- D.1.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

SEER

- based Historical SWEFs and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for

the Base Cas e and Standards Cases, Sensitivity Case

............................. 10

- D

- 2

### 10

- D

- 1 APPENDIX 10

- D. EFFICIENCY TREND SEN SITIVITY ANALYSIS FOR SPLIT

SYSTEM CENTRAL AIR C ONDITIONER REPLACEME NT UNITS

10

- D.1 EFFICIENCY TREND

As described in Chapter 10, section 10.2.1.2 describing forecasted efficiency trends for

central air conditioners, DOE’s approach for forecasting the efficiencies of split system central

air conditioner coil

- only replacement units assumed that few consumers would choose to

purchase units at 15 SEER and above due to the very large additional cost to install a furnace fan

kit . As a result, market shares of products with efficiencies of 15 SEER and greater were held

constant or frozen. Figure 10.D.1 shows the resulting base case and standards case efficiency

trends , referred to as the ‘default’ efficiency trends, that result from the above method of

forecasting efficiency.

Figure 10

- D.1.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only

Replacement Units: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs

and Forecasted ‘Default’ Efficiency Trends for the

Base Case and Standards Cases

Because the above method of forecasting air conditioner efficiency results in froz en

market shares of products with efficiencies of 15 SEER and greater, DOE investigated an

efficiency trend sensitivity for split system central air conditioner coil

- only replacement units

that allows migration of products to 15 SEER and above. For the ba se case efficiency trend, this

method allows product to migrate from lower to higher efficiency levels at a rate consistent with

the ‘default’ efficiency trends with one exception; product migration from efficiency levels 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

YearSWEF (SEER) Base Case

CSL 1: 13.5 SEER

CSL 2: 14 SEER

CSL 3: 14.5 SEER

CSL 4: 15 SEER

CSL 5: 15.5 SEER

CSL 6: 16 SEER

CSL 7: 16.5 SEER

CSL 8: 17 SEER

CSL 9: 18 SEER

### 10

- D

- 2 below 15 SEER to efficiency levels equal to or above 15 SEER occurs at a rate that is 80% less

than the ‘default’ trend. The lower rate of migration is based on the high hurdle costs of

adopting products with efficiencies of 15 SEER and above.

To develop standards case forecasted SWEFs, DOE developed growth trends for the

candidate standard levels by first “rolling up” product market shares below the candidate

standard level to the candidate standard level in the year that standards become effective (i.e.,

2016). For th e 13.5 and 14.0 SEER candidate standard levels, products were allowed to migrate

to the 14.5 SEER efficiency level but DOE froze the market shares of products with efficiencies

of 15 SEER and greater to equal those under the base case. For all other candi date standard

levels, market shares of products above the given candidate standard level were frozen at those

market shares under the base case.

Figure 10.D.2 shows the resulting base case and standards case efficiency trends for the

sensitivity case, i.e., the case that allows product migration to efficiency levels greater than and

equal to 15 SEER.

Figure 10

- D.1.2 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only

Replacement Units: SEER

- based Historical SWEFs

and Forecasted Efficiency Trends for the Base Case

and Standards Cases, Sensitivity Case 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045SEER Base

SEER

13.5

SEER 14

SEER

14.5

SEER 15

SEER

15.5

SEER 16

SEER

16.5

SEER 17

SEER 18

### 10

- D

- 3 Table 10

- D.1 .1 provides the forecasted efficiency distribution for the base case (without

standards) for split system coil

- only replacement units. The table clearly indicates how the

market shares of product efficiencie s change over time under the sensitivity case.

Table 10

- D.1.1 Split System Central Air Conditioner, Coil

- Only Replacement Units:

Base Case Efficiency Distributions and SWEFs, Sensitivity Case

Year Market Shares by SEER Level

SWEF 13 13.5 14 14.5 15 15.5 16 16.5 17 18

2016 24.6% 48.2% 4.1% 7.4% 5.9% 2.1% 7.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 13.80

2017 20.2% 44.0% 12.0% 7.9% 6.0% 1.9% 6.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 13.88

2018 16.6% 39.7% 17.8% 9.8% 6.0% 1.8% 5.5% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% 13.96

2019 13.6% 35.5% 21.7% 12.6% 6.2% 1.7% 4.8% 3.1% 0.8% 0.1% 14.04

2020 11.1% 31.6% 24.2% 16.1% 6.4% 1.6% 4.2% 3.4% 1.2% 0.2% 14.11

2021 9.1% 27.9% 25.5% 19.9% 6.7% 1.5% 3.8% 3.5% 1.6% 0.4% 14.19

2022 7.5% 24.5% 26.0% 23.8% 7.2% 1.5% 3.4% 3.6% 1.9% 0.7% 14.26

2023 6.1% 21.4% 25.7% 27.6% 7.8% 1.5% 3.0% 3.5% 2.2% 1.1% 14.33

2024 5.0% 18.7% 24.9% 31.2% 8.5% 1.5% 2.7% 3.4% 2.5% 1.5% 14.39

2025 4.1% 16.2% 23.8% 34.6% 9.3% 1.5% 2.5% 3.3% 2.6% 1.9% 14.46

2026 3.4% 14.1% 22.4% 37.6% 10.2% 1.6% 2.3% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 14.51

2027 2.8% 12.1% 20.9% 40.3% 11.2% 1.7% 2.2% 3.0% 2.8% 2.9% 14.57

2028 2.3% 10.4% 19.3% 42.6% 12.3% 1.8% 2.1% 2.9% 2.9% 3.4% 14.62

2029 1.9% 9.0% 17.7% 44.6% 13.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.9% 14.67

2030 1.5% 7.7% 16.2% 46.2% 14.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% 4.4% 14.72

2031 1.3% 6.6% 14.6% 47.4% 15.6% 2.2% 2.0% 2.5% 2.8% 4.9% 14.77

2032 1.0% 5.6% 13.2% 48.3% 16.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% 2.8% 5.4% 14.81

2033 0.8% 4.8% 11.8% 49.0% 17.9% 2.5% 2.1% 2.4% 2.7% 5.9% 14.85

2034 0.7% 4.1% 10.6% 49.3% 19.0% 2.7% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 6.4% 14.89

2035 0.6% 3.5% 9.4% 49.5% 20.1% 2.9% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 6.9% 14.93

2036 0.5% 3.0% 8.3% 49.4% 21.2% 3.1% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 7.4% 14.96

2037 0.4% 2.5% 7.4% 49.1% 22.2% 3.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 7.8% 15.00

2038 0.3% 2.1% 6.5% 48.6% 23.2% 3.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% 8.3% 15.03

2039 0.3% 1.8% 5.7% 48.1% 24.1% 3.7% 2.8% 2.4% 2.4% 8.7% 15.06

2040 0.2% 1.5% 5.0% 47.4% 24.9% 3.9% 3.0% 2.5% 2.4% 9.1% 15.10

2041 0.2% 1.3% 4.4% 46.6% 25.7% 4.1% 3.2% 2.6% 2.4% 9.6% 15.13

2042 0.1% 1.1% 3.8% 45.7% 26.5% 4.3% 3.3% 2.7% 2.5% 10.0% 15.16

2043 0.1% 0.9% 3.3% 44.7% 27.2% 4.5% 3.5% 2.8% 2.5% 10.5% 15.19

2044 0.1% 0.8% 2.9% 43.7% 27.8% 4.7% 3.7% 2.9% 2.6% 10.9% 15.22

2045 0.1% 0.6% 2.5% 42.6% 28.4% 4.8% 3.9% 3.1% 2.6% 11.4% 15.25

### 10

- D

- 4 10

- D.2 NES AND NPV RESULTS

Table 10.D.2 .1 show s the national energy savings for the T SLs analyzed for split system

central air conditioner s for the residential and commercial sector for the sensitivity case

. The

table provides the breakdown of the NES for coil

- only units and blower coil units.

Table 10

- D.2.1 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NES Results

from 2016

- 2045, Residential and Commercial Sector , Sensitivity Case

TSL NES (quads)

Total* Coil

- Only Blower Coil

1 0.097 0. 08 1 0.01 7

2a 0. 09 7 0. 081 0.017

2b 0. 097 0. 081 0.017

3a 0. 316 0. 270 0.04 6

3b 0. 316 0. 270 0.04 6

4a 0.351 0.302 0.049

4b 0.351 0.303 0.049

5 0.316 0.270 0.046

6 1.245 1.113 0.133

7 5.838 5.109 0.729

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NES.



### Table 10.D. 2.2 provides the NPV for the TSLs analyzed for split system central air

conditioners for the residential and commercial sector using a three percent and seven percent

real discount rate, respectively. The table provides the breakdown of the NPV for coil

- only units

and blower coil units.

Table 10

- D.2.2 Split System Central Air Conditioners: Cumulative National NPV Results

from 2016

- 2045 , Sensitivity Case

TSL NPV @ 3% Discount Rate * (bill 2009$) NPV @ 7% Discount Rate (bill 2009$)

Total* Coil

- Only Blower Coil Total* Coil

- Only Blower Coil

1 0.3 5 0.3 0 0.05 0. 08 0.0 7 0.01

2a 0.35 0.30 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.01

2b 0.35 0.30 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.01

3a 2.14 1.92 0.22 0.77 0.71 0.0 6

3b 2.14 1.92 0.22 0.77 0.71 0.0 6

4a 2.37 2.14 0.24 0.87 0.80 0.07

4b 2.38 2.14 0.24 0.88 0.80 0.07

5 2.14 1.92 0.22 0.77 0.71 0.0 6

6 (5.55) (5.98) 0.44 (4.49) (4.58) 0.09

7 (64.54) (61.82) (2.7 2 ) (39.66) (37.51) (2.14)

* Reflects analysis conducted at national level. Regional values do not necessarily add up to national NPV.