2009 Projection Inventory 

and

2009 PM2.5 Emissions Inventory Attainment Demonstration

for the

Northern New Jersey PM2.5 SIP

Technical Support Document 

June 6, 2011
2

PREFACE

This document is to support EPA's evaluation of the 2009 projection modeling inventories and inventory 

attainment demonstration included in New Jersey’s PM2.5 State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Northern 

New Jersey (NNJ) portion of the PM2.5 nonattainment area. The NNJ area consists of the following counties: 

Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Passaic, Somerset and Union. The intended 

effect of this action is to evaluate inventory components required by the Clean Air Act (CAA) which result in 

emission reductions that will help contribute to attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for

PM2.5. This document contains a detailed review of the New Jersey’s submittal. Among the topics discussed 

below are: background, riteria for approval and EPA’s final recommendation.

BACKGROUND

Emission Inventory Requirements and Inventory Attainment Demonstration

States are required under the Section 172 (c) of the CAA to develop emissions inventories of point, area, and 

mobile sources for their attainment demonstrations. These inventories provide a detailed accounting of all 

emissions and emissions sources by precursor or pollutant. In addition, inventories are used to model air quality 

to demonstrate that attainment of the NAAQS can be met by the deadline, which, in this case, is for the 1997 

PM2.5 NAAQS. Emissions reporting requirements for PM2.5 are given in the EPA published document

Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze

Regulations, (EPA–454/R–99–006). This guidance was updated in November 2005 (EPA–454/R–05–001).

In accordance with November 2005 guidance, the PM2.5 implementation rule required states to submit 

inventory information on directly emitted PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors and any additional inventory 

information needed to support an attainment demonstration (where applicable).

Also in accordance with Section 172 (c) of the CAA and with the PM2.5 implementation rule, the attainment 

plan submitted by the State for the NNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area should include: 1) emission inventories for 

the plan’s base year (2002) and projection year (2009) and an attainment demonstration, 2) The attainment 

demonstration should include (a) technical analyses that locate, identify, and quantify sources of emissions 

contributing to violations of the 1997 annual [and/or daily] PM2.5 NAAQS, (b) analyses of future-year 

emissions reductions and air-quality improvements expected to result from national and local air pollution 

control programs, and (c) adopted emission-reduction measures with schedules for implementation. 

The 2009 Projection Inventory and Inventory and 2009 Inventory Attainment Demonstration
3

The State is required to include in the PM2.5 SIP 1) 2002 base year inventory, 2) 2009 projection inventories

and 3) a 2009 inventory attainment demonstration. The SIPs must demonstrate that the 2002 base year 

inventory, projected to 2009 with growth, include control measures and rules that are adequate to provide for the 

timely attainment in reducing emissions from pollutants the contribute PM2.5 nonattainment in order to reach 

2009 attainment inventory emission levels.

There are general and specific components for an acceptable 2009 projection inventory and inventory attainment 

demonstration. In general, the State must submit a revision to its SIP and the aforementioned components must 

meet certain minimum requirements for reporting by source category. Specifically, the source requirements are 

detailed below.

A review process is used to determine that all components of the projection inventories and inventory 

attainment demonstration are present. The review also evaluates the level of supporting documentation 

provided by the State and assesses whether the emissions were developed according to current EPA or 

acceptable alternative guidance. 

CRITERIA FOR APPROVAL

Projection and Inventory Attainment Demonstration

There are several points that the projection inventories and inventory attainment demonstration must adequately 

address. For the projection inventories and inventory attainment demonstration to be acceptable they must pass 

the following acceptance criteria: 

1. Were the 2009 projection inventories developed in accordance with the procedures outlined EPA’s 

latest guidance 1,3,4,6,7?

2. Were the Plans developed in accordance with EPA’s latest guidance for Growth Factors, 

Projections, and Control Strategies for Reasonable Progress Goal Plans 1,3,4,6,7? 

DETAILED ACTION AND EVALUATION

This portion of the report contains a discussion and summary of the review conducted by EPA for the 2009

projection inventories and inventory attainment demonstration.
4

Section 1: 2002 BASE YEAR INVENTORY

Calculation of 2002 Base Year Emission Inventory

The reader is referred to Region 2’s document entitled New Jersey State 2002 Base Year Inventory SIP 

Technical Support Documentation for details on the approval of New Jersey’s 2002 base year inventory. EPA 

proposed to approve New Jersey’s 2002 Base Year inventories on May 9, 2006, (71 FR 26895) and approved 

the emission inventories on July 10, 2006 (71 FR 38770). The reader is referred to these rulemakings for 

additional information concerning the emission inventories and EPA’s approval. 

Table 1 below shows the revised 2002 modeling base year PM2.5, NOx and SO2 emission inventories for the 

Northern New Jersey PM2.5 nonattainment area.

Table 1

2002 Northern New Jersey PM2.5 Modeling Base Year Inventory (in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM 2.5 2,790 8,636 2,824 1,547 15,797

NOX 34,432 18,428 42,661 102,997 198,518

SOX 37,750 6,242 6,654 2,244 52,890
5

Section 2: Calculation of 2009 Projection Year Emission Inventories

A projection of 2002 PM2.5, NOx, and SO2 anthropogenic emissions to 2009 is required to determine the 

emission reductions needed for inventory attainment demonstration. The 2009 projection year emission 

inventories are calculated by multiplying the 2002 base year inventory by factors which estimate growth from 

2002 to 2009. A specific growth factor for each source type in the inventory is required since sources typically 

grow at different rates. 

Projection Methodology

Major Point Sources

Electric Generating Units (EGU)

For the major point source category, the projected emissions inventories were first calculated by estimating

growth in each source category. As appropriate, the 2002 emissions inventory was used as the base for applying 

factors to account for inventory growth. The point source inventory was grown from the 2002 inventory to 2009

for each facility using growth factors utilized in IPM model to forecast growth based on the following 

variables/factors: electric demand; natural gas, oil and coal supply forecasts; pollution control and performance;

capacity cost and performance, and replacement of older less efficient and polluting power plants with newer 

more efficient units to meet future growth and state by state NOx and SOx caps.

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 and Appendix B5 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and 

Maintenance of the Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS, dated March 24,2010. This document provides further 

details and references on how projections were performed. 

Non-Electric Generating Units (Non-EGUs)

For the major point source category, the projected emissions inventories were first calculated by estimating 

growth in each source category. As appropriate, the 2002 emissions inventory was used as the base for applying 

factors to account for inventory growth. The point source inventory was grown from the 2002 inventory to 2009

for each facility based on source classification codes using growth factors generated from EPA’s Economic 

Growth Analysis System (EGAS) version 5.0, United States Department of Energy’s (USDOE) Annual Energy 

Outlook Projections (AEO) 2005, state supplied population and employment data, where appropriate. 

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the 

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS, dated March 24,2010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2009, 

2012 and 2009 for Non-EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE-VU Region, Final Report, 

dated February 2007. These documents provide further details and references on how projections were 
6

performed. 

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined 

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7EPA finds New Jersey’s methodology for projecting point sources to be 

acceptable.

Area Sources

For the area source category, New Jersey projected emissions from 2002 to 2009 using growth factors from 

USDOE AEO 2007, state supplied population and employment data, where appropriate. 

This is in accordance with EPA’s recommended growth indicators for projecting emissions for area source 

categories as outlined in EPA Guidance. 1,3,4,6,7 

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the 

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS, dated March 24,2010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2009, 

2012 and 2018 for Non-EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE-VU Region, Final Report, 

dated February 2007. These documents provide further details and references on how projections were 

performed. 

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined 

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey’s methodology for projecting area sources to be 

acceptable.

Non-Road Mobile Sources

Non-road vehicle equipment emissions were projected from 2002 to 2009 using the EPA’s National Mobile 

Inventory Model (NMIM) 2005. NMIM 2005 contains growth factors, which are based on the historical trends 

in nonroad equipment activity. This model was use to calculate past and future emission inventories for all 

nonroad equipment categories except commercial marine vessels, locomotives and aircrafts. Emissions were 

determined on a monthly basis and combined to provide annual emission estimates.

Aircrafts, Locomotives and Commercial Marine Vessels (CMV)

Aircraft, locomotives and CMV emissions were projected based on combined growth and control factors from 

USEPA Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) by determining the level of emissions and their associated ratios

between 2002 base and 2025 projection year. From this point, the State determined the ratio of emissions 

between 2002 and 2009 projection year using linear interpolation. The ratios between 2002 and 2009 were 
7

determined and then multiplied by the 2002 base year to determine 2009 projection year emissions.

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the 

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS, dated March, 2010010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2009, 

2012 and 2018 for Non-EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE-VU Region, Final Report, 

dated February 2007. These documents provide further details and references on how projections were 

performed. 

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined 

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey’s methodology for projecting non-road mobile sources to 

be acceptable.

Onroad Mobile Sources

For the onroad mobile source category, the primary indicator and tool for developing on-road mobile growth 

and expected emissions are vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and US EPA’s mobile emissions model Mobile 6.2.03 

(Mobile6.2). The 2009 pollutant emission factors were generated by Mobile6.2 (with the associated controlled 

measures applied, where appropriate) and applied to the monthly VMT projections provided by the State. 

Monthly emissions were then combined to develop annual emission estimates.

The reader is referred to Section 5.2.2.2.2 of NJDEP SIP Revision for the Attainment and Maintenance of the 

Fine Particulate PM2.5 NAAQS, dated March 24, 2010 and Development of Emissions Projections for 2009, 

2012 and 2018 for Non-EGU Point, Area and Nonroad Mobile Sources in the MANE-VU Region, Final Report, 

dated February 2007. This document provides further details and references on how projections were performed. 

Since these methodologies and growth indicators are some of the preferred growth indicators to use as outlined 

in EPA Guidance, 1,3,4,6,7 EPA finds New Jersey’s methodology for projecting on-road mobile sources to be 

acceptable.

Table 2A shows the 2009 projection emission inventories controlled after 2002 using the aforementioned 

growth indicators/methodologies for the NNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area. Table 2B shows the 2002-2009

emission control measures for the NNJ PM2.5 nonattainment area.
8

Table 2A

2009 Northern New Jersey PM2.5 Modeling Projection Year Inventory (Controlled)

(in Tons/Year)

Pollutant Point Area Nonroad Mobile Onroad Mobile Total

PM2.5 3,169 8,332 2,295 956 14,752

NOX 13,378 16,502 33,714 50,097 113,691

SOX 18,616 6,208 1,530 457 26,811
9
10

Table 2B

PM NOx SO2

PM2.5 Control Measure Summary

Sector Attainment 

2009 

Modeling

Control 

Measures Not 

Captured in the 

2009 Regional 

Modeling

Attainment 

(2009) 

Contingency

Federal Residential Woodstove NSPS Area X X X

Federal Energy Conservation Standards for New Federal 

Commercial and Multi-Family High-Rise Residential 

Buildings and New Federal Low-Rise Residential 

Buildings

Area X

Federal Nonroad Diesel Engines Nonroad X X X X

Federal Large Industrial Spark-Ignition Engines over 19 kW Nonroad X X

Federal Recreational Vehicles (includes snowmobiles, offhighway motorcycles, and all-terrain vehicles)Nonroad X X

Federal Diesel Marine Engines over 37 kW Nonroad X X X

Federal Phase 2 Standards for Small Spark-Ignition 

Handheld Engines at or below 19 kW

Nonroad X X

Federal Phase 2 Standards for New Nonroad Spark-Ignition 

Nonhandheld Engines at or below 19 kW

Nonroad X X

Federal New Nonroad Engine Standards Nonroad X X X X
11

Federal Locomotive Engines and Marine CompressionIgnition Engines Less Than 30 Liters per Cylinder Nonroad X X X X

Federal Tier 1 Vehicle Program Onroad X X X

Federal National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV) Onroad X X X

Federal Tier 2 Vehicle Program/Low Sulfur Fuels Onroad X X X X

Federal Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle (HDDV) Defeat Device 

Settlement

Onroad X X

Federal Heavy Duty Diesel Vehicle (HDDV) Engine 

Standards

Onroad X X X X

Federal Acid Rain Point X X X

Federal USEPA MACT Standards including Industrial 

Boiler/Process Heater MACT

Point X X

Federal Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) Point X X X

Federal Refinery Consent Decrees (Sunoco, Valero, and 

ConocoPhillips)

Point X X X

Federal Refinery Consent Decrees (Sunoco, Valero) Point X a X a X X

New Jersey Smoke Management Area X

New Jersey Nonroad Motor Vehicle Control Programs (Fleet 

turnover 2010)

Nonroad X X X X

New Jersey Ports Nonroad X

New Jersey New Jersey Heavy Duty Diesel Rules Including 

"Not-To-Exceed" (NTE) Requirements

Onroad X X X

New Jersey On-Board Diagnostics (OBD) – (I/M) Program for 

Gasoline Vehicles

Onroad X X

New Jersey New Jersey Low Emission Vehicle (LEV) Program Onroad X X
12

New Jersey Onroad Motor Vehicle Control Programs (Fleet 

turnover 2010)

Onroad X X X X

New Jersey Diesel Idling Rule Changes Onroad X X

New Jersey Diesel Smoke (I/M Cutpoint) Rule Changes Onroad X

New Jersey NOx Budget Program (SIP Call) Point X X

New Jersey ICI Boiler Rule 2009 b Point X X

New Jersey Controls from EGU Consent Decrees (PSE&G 

Mercer)

Point X X X X

New Jersey Controls from EGU Consent Decrees (PSE&G 

Hudson NOx)

Point X X X X

New Jersey Nonattainment New Source Review (NNSR) Point X

New Jersey Asphalt Production Plants Rule Point X X

New Jersey Glass Manufacturing Point X

New Jersey High Electric Demand Day (HEDD) Program Point X

New Jersey #6 Fuel Oil-Fired Boilers Point X

New Jersey Stationary Diesel Engines Point X

New Jersey Case by Case NOx Emission Limit Determinations 

(FSELs/AELs)

Point X

New Jersey Municipal Waste Combustors (Incinerators) NOx

portion

Point X X

New Jersey Municipal Waste Combustors (Incinerators) PM 

portion

Point X

New Jersey Refinery Rules (FCCUs, Flares, Process Heaters, 

and Boilers)

Point X

New Jersey Controls from EGU Consent Decrees (PSE&G 

Hudson SO2)

Point X X

New Jersey NOx RACT Rule 2006 (portion not modeled) Point X X
13

New Jersey ICI Boiler Rule 2009 (portion not modeled) Point X X

New Jersey NOx RACT Rule (2006) Point and 

Area

X X

New Jersey Fugitive Dust at Stationary Sources Point and 

Area

X

New Jersey Low Sulfur Distillate and Residual Fuel Strategies Point and 

Area

X
14
15

Section 3: 2009 Inventory Attainment Demonstration

Section 3A: Inventory Attainment Demonstration Requirements1,2,3,4,5,6,7

1. For the NNJ area, PM2.5 pollutant precursors’ annual emissions should be projected from the 2002 base 

to the future 2009 year. Provide summary of emissions for point, area, nonroad and onroad mobile 

sources.

2. State must provide a demonstration which shows that the 2002 base projected to 2009 (with growth and 

controls) will reach 2009 controlled emission levels. Provide summary of emissions for point, area, 

nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources.

3. Provide an explanation on how the 2009 point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile source 

projection inventories are developed.

Section 3B: How New Jersey Meets the Criteria for the 2009 Inventory Attainment Demonstration

• For the New Jersey, PM2.5 annual emissions should be projected from the 2002 base to the future 

2009 year. Provide summary of emissions for point, area, nonroad and onroad mobile sources.

Sections 1 and 2, provide detailed answers to these questions. New Jersey has satisfied the criteria for 2002 

base year projected to 2009 (controlled) projection inventory requirements.

• State must provide a demonstration which shows that the 2002 base projected to 2009 (with 

growth and controls) will reach 2009 controlled emission levels. Provide summary of emissions for 

point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile sources.

Sections 1 and 2, provide detailed answers to these questions. New Jersey has satisfied the criteria for 2002 

base year projected to 2009 (controlled) projection inventory requirements.

• Provide an explanation on how the 2009 point, area, nonroad mobile and onroad mobile source 

projection inventories are developed.

Sections 1 and 2, provide detailed answers to these questions. New Jersey has satisfied the criteria for 2002 

base year projected to 2009 (controlled) projection inventory requirements.
16

Emission Inventory Guidance Documents

1

Emission Inventory Improvement Program guidance document titled Volume X, Emission Projections, dated 

December 1999 

2

Draft Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for PM2.5 SIPs, dated August 2010

3

Guidance for Growth Factors, Projections, and Control Strategies for the 15 Percent Rate of Progress Plans, 

dated March 1993

4

Guidance on the Post-1996 Rate of Progress Plan and Attainment Demonstration, dated January 1994

5

Emission Inventory Guidance for Implementation of ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze 

Regulation, dated August 2005

6

EPA’s follow-up memo “8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards Implementation-Reasonable 

Further Progress (RFP), dated August 2006

7

Guidance on the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstration Attainment of Air Quality Goals for 

Ozone, PM2.5 and Regional Haze, dated April 2007