Recidivism Among Federal Offenders: 

A Comprehensive Overview

UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION
UNITED STATES SENTENCING COMMISSION

ONE COLUMBUS CIRCLE,N.E.

WASHINGTON, DC 20002

WWW.USSC.GOV

Patti B. Saris

Chair

Charles R. Breyer

Vice Chair

Dabney L. Friedrich

Commissioner

Rachel E. Barkow

Commissioner

William H. Pryor, Jr.

Commissioner

Michelle Morales

Ex Officio

J. Patricia Wilson Smoot

Ex Officio

Kenneth P. Cohen

Staff Director

Glenn R. Schmitt

Director

Office of Research and Data

March 2016
Kim Steven Hunt, Ph.D

Senior Research Associate

Robert Dumville

Research Associate

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PART I INTRODUCTION 2

PART II SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS 4

PART III DESCRIPTION OF METHODOLOGY AND STUDY GROUP 6

Defining and Measuring Recidivism 7

Methodology 8

The Study Group 9

PART IV DETAILED RECIDIVISM FINDINGS 14

General Recidivism Rates 15

Most Serious Recidivism Offense 17

Recidivism and Criminal History 18

Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense 20

Recidivism and Sentences Imposed 22

Recidivism and Offender Characteristics 23

PART V CONCLUSION 26

ENDNOTES 28

APPENDIX 34

i

PART 

I

Introduction
The United States Sentencing Commission1 began studying recidivism 

shortly after the enactment of the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984 (SRA). 2 Past 

studies, together with ongoing multi-year research on this subject, advance the 

Commission’s mission to conduct research on sentencing issues related to the 

purposes of sentencing set forth in the SRA.3 Recidivism information is central 

to three of the primary purposes of punishment as described in the SRA – 

specific deterrence, incapacitation, and rehabilitation – purposes which focus on 

prevention of future crimes through correctional intervention.4 Information 

about recidivism also is relevant to the Commission’s obligation to formulate 

sentencing policy that “reflect[s], to the extent practicable, advancements in 

knowledge of human behavior as it relates to the sentencing process.”5 

Considerations of recidivism by federal offenders were central to the 

Commission’s initial work, as it chose to develop the Guidelines Manual’s 

criminal history provisions in significant part on offenders’ risk of reoffending.6 

The Commission’s 2004 report, Measuring Recidivism, served as a “performance 

review” of the predictive ability of these provisions, i.e., the predictive statistical 

power of the criminal history measure to reflect subsequent recidivism among 

federal offenders. That report concluded that these provisions largely 

succeeded in predicting subsequent risk of reoffending.7 Two additional 

Commission reports in that same period further investigated federal offender 

recidivism and reviewed features of the federal sentencing guidelines.8 Two 

later publications examined recidivism by federal offenders sentenced under 

the guidelines for child pornography and crack cocaine.9 

Recent developments have refocused the Commission’s interest on the 

recidivism of federal offenders, particularly the recent public attention on the 

size of the federal prison population and the cost of incarceration.10 Well over 

1.5 million offenders have been sentenced under the federal sentencing 

guidelines since their inception in 1987. In recent years, approximately 80,000 

offenders have been sentenced each year for federal felonies and Class A (nonpetty) misdemeanor offenses.11 Nine out of ten of those federal offenders today 

receive sentences of imprisonment, while one out of ten is sentenced to 

probation.12 The federal prison population today is slightly under two hundred 

thousand inmates13 (which is around one-eighth of the total prison and jail 

population in the United States).14 As these numbers have grown, courts and 

correctional officials have sought greater information about reoffending. 

Recidivism information has recently been used in decisions by the Commission 

to reduce the periods of incarceration established for certain offenders through 

retroactive application of sentence reductions in the guidelines.15 And changes 

in the sentencing guidelines at the policy level have a significant effect on the 

imposition of individual sentences.16 It is in this policy climate that the 

Commission has begun its multi-year study of recidivism by federal offenders.

The Commission’s current recidivism research substantially expands 

on the scope of previous Commission recidivism projects. In addition to a 

different set of offenders – U.S. citizen federal offenders released in 2005 – the 

current study group (25,431 offenders) is much larger than those in previous 

Commission studies. A larger study group provides the opportunity to develop 

statistically useful conclusions about many subgroups of federal offenders, 

including those sentenced under different provisions in the guidelines. This is 

the first report on the results of the Commission’s study of the recidivism of the 

federal offenders released during this time period. 

This report provides a broad overview of key findings from the United States Sentencing Commission’s study of recidivism of federal offenders. The Commission 

studied offenders who were either released from federal prison after serving a sentence of imprisonment or placed on a term of probation in 2005. Nearly half (49.3%) 

of such offenders were rearrested within eight years for either a new crime or for some other violation of the condition of their probation or release conditions. This 

report discusses the Commission’s recidivism research project and provides many additional findings from that project. In the future, the Commission will release 

additional publications discussing specific topics concerning recidivism of federal offenders. 

Page 3
PART II

Summary of Key Findings
The key findings of the Commission’s study are:

• Over an eight year follow-up period, almost one-half of federal offenders

released in 2005 (49.3%) were rearrested for a new crime or rearrested

for a violation of supervision conditions.

• Almost one-third (31.7%) of the offenders were also reconvicted, and

one-quarter (24.6%) of the offenders were reincarcerated over the

same study period.

• Offenders released from incarceration in 2005 had a rearrest rate of 52.5

percent, while offenders released directly to a probationary sentence

had a rearrest rate of 35.1 percent.

• Of those offenders who recidivated, most did so within the first two years

of the eight year follow-up period. The median time to rearrest was 21

months.

• About one-fourth of those rearrested had an assault rearrest as their

most serious charge over the study period. Other common most serious

offenses were drug trafficking, larceny, and public order offenses.

• A federal offender’s criminal history was closely correlated with

recidivism rates. Rearrest rates range from 30.2 percent for offenders

with zero total criminal history points to 80.1 percent of offenders in the

highest Criminal History Category, VI. Each additional criminal history

point was generally associated with a greater likelihood of

recidivism.

• A federal offender’s age at time of release into the community was also

closely associated with differences in recidivism rates. Offenders

released prior to age 21 had the highest rearrest rate, 67.6 percent, while

offenders over sixty years old at the time of release had a recidivism rate

of 16.0 percent.

• Other factors, including offense type and educational level, were

associated with differing rates of recidivism but less so than age and

criminal history.

More detailed findings are contained below in Part IV.

Recidivism Study Offenders

The offenders studied in this project are 25,431 federal offenders who:

• are citizens;

• re-entered the community during 2005 after discharging their sentence of incarceration or by commencing a term of probation in 2005;

• have valid FBI numbers which could be located in criminal history repositories (in at least one state, the District of Columbia, or federal records);

• are not reported dead, escaped, or detained, and

• have a pre-sentence investigation report that was submitted to the Commission with a federal sentence that was not vacated.

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PART III

Description of Methodology and Study Group
Defining and Measuring Recidivism

Recidivism “refers to a person’s relapse into criminal behavior, often 

after the person receives sanctions or undergoes intervention for a previous 

crime.”17 Recidivism measures can provide policy makers with information 

regarding the relative threat to public safety posed by various types of 

offenders, and the effectiveness of public safety initiatives in (1) deterring crime 

and (2) rehabilitating or incapacitating offenders.18 Recidivism measures are 

used by numerous public safety agencies to measure performance and inform 

policy decisions and practices on issues such as pretrial detention, prisoner 

classification and programming, and offender supervision in the community.19

Recidivism is typically measured by criminal acts that resulted in the

rearrest, reconviction, and/or reincarceration of the offender over a specified 

period of time.20 These are the three recidivism measures used in this report. 

Providing multiple measures of recidivism allows users to select the 

performance measure best suited to their outcome of interest.21 

Rearrest classifies a person as a recidivist if he or she has been 

arrested for a new crime after being released into the community directly on 

probation or after serving a term of imprisonment. Rearrest also includes 

arrests for alleged violations of supervised release, probation, or state parole.22 

The number of rearrests in the Commission’s analysis is based on the number of 

unique arrest dates, regardless of the number of individual charges arising from 

a single arrest event. Thus, if an offender was arrested on a single occasion for 

both driving under the influence and possession of cocaine, that arrest date 

would constitute a single rearrest event. 

Reconviction classifies a person as a recidivist if an arrest resulted in a 

subsequent court conviction. Violations and revocations of supervision are not 

included in reconvictions since no formal prosecution occurred. 

Reincarceration classifies a person as a recidivist if a conviction or 

revocation resulted in a prison or jail sentence as punishment. The 

reincarceration measure counts offenders who were reported returned to the 

Federal Bureau of Prisons, state prison, or local jail for any term of 

incarceration.

For example, many rearrests do not ultimately result in a reconviction 

or reincarceration for reasons relating to procedural safeguards (e.g., the 

suppression of evidence for an unconstitutional search or seizure), lack of 

sufficient evidence to convict or revoke, and prosecutorial or judicial resource 

limitations. To the extent that the rearrest event is an accurate indicator of 

relapse into criminal behavior, excluding events due to non-conviction or nonincarceration will result in underestimation of recidivism. Even using the least 

restrictive measure, rearrest, does not count the full extent of offender 

recidivism, as many crimes go unreported to police or, if reported, do not result 

in an arrest. For these reasons, no measure is perfect, and reporting several 

measures provides a more complete and nuanced picture of reoffending.23 The 

three measures overlap in some areas – meaning all offenders who were 

reconvicted or reincarcerated also were necessarily rearrested, too. Some 

offenders who were reconvicted, however, were not reincarcerated. Generally 

speaking, however, the measure of rearrest is larger than the measure of 

reconviction, which in turn is larger than the measure of reincarceration.

Two principal research choices can affect the relative magnitude of 

recidivism as measured in any study: first, which events are being included as 

evidence of reversion to criminal behavior; and second, over what time period 

these events are counted. The period of time over which events are counted 

following release into the community is the “follow-up period.” Recidivism 

analysis begins with a starting event, such as release from prison into the 

community, and may have one or more subsequent events, such as arrests, 

recorded before the close of the follow-up period. In some studies, follow-up

periods may be quite short, for example six months. Other studies follow 

offenders in the community for substantially longer periods, which may extend 

to several years. The longer the follow-up period, the higher the reported 

recidivism rate, because some offenders who did not recidivate within the first 

year of release recidivate in the second year, and other offenders who did not 

recidivate during the first two years recidivated thereafter. Longer follow-up 

periods are in this sense less restrictive, and come closer to estimating true rate 

of desistance from crime. 

The Commission selected an eight year follow-up period for its 

research. The Commission also considered all recidivism events (including 

felonies, misdemeanors, and “technical” violations of the conditions of 

supervision) except the Commission excluded minor traffic offenses. In this 

report and accompanying appendices, the Commission will include findings 

using all three measures: rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration. The 

measures of rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration are reported as the 

percentage of offenders who recidivated by that measure. As noted, those 

measures overlap in some areas.

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This report provides additional important information regarding the 

recidivism of federal offenders. First, the Commission reports the time to the 

first recidivism event for those offenders who recidivated. Studying the timing 

of recidivism can help understand the process of desistance, as some offenders 

may be able to remain in the community for a considerable time before 

recidivating, while others recidivate very quickly. The Commission also reports 

the median number of recidivism events for those who recidivated, again using 

the three recidivism measures. With a follow-up period of eight years, many 

offenders recidivate more than once. Knowing how often they recidivate and 

for what crimes can provide important information to policymakers. Finally, 

the Commission reports the most serious post-release event for those who 

recidivated, as some crimes represent greater harm to society than others.

This report presents the findings of a much larger group of offenders 

than previous Commission reports, due largely to recent technological advances 

described below that make this possible. As with previous Commission reports, 

the present multi-year study of recidivism of federal offenders seeks not only to 

describe recidivism results generally, but also to relate these results to current 

sentencing policy questions as may be appropriate in light of the information 

obtained.

Two other recent recidivism reports are particularly relevant to the 

present Commission study, although differing with respect to follow-up period 

and in some other ways. First, the Bureau of Justice Statistics of the U.S. 

Department of Justice began issuing reports on recidivism among prisoners 

released from state prisons in the 1980s with Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 

1983, and recently issued Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: 

Patterns from 2005 to 2010.24 Among state prisoners released in 2005, 67.8 

percent of released prisoners were arrested for a new crime within three years, 

and 76.6 percent were arrested within five years. Many prisoners (36.8%) who 

were arrested during the five-year period were arrested within the first six 

months, and 56.7 percent were arrested by the end of the first year. 

Second, the Office of Probation and Pretrial Services of the 

Administrative Office of the U.S. Courts (AO) sponsored a report in 2012 on the 

recidivism of federal offenders prepared by Abt Associates. The AO study, 

Recidivism of Federal Offenders on Federal Community Supervision,25 also 

followed federal offenders released into the community in fiscal year 2005. The 

AO found that 38 percent of offenders recidivated within five years, including 

24 percent who were re-arrested for a new crime and 13 percent who were 

revoked from probation or supervised release. Unlike the Commission’s 

present research, the AO study excluded most public order offenses from 

criminal acts counted in its recidivism measure. The report also examined how 

recidivism rates varied with the presence of various offender risk (e.g., 

substance abuse issues) and protective (e.g., positive social support) factors.

Methodology 

Technological advances have allowed the Commission to examine all 

U.S. citizen federal offenders released in 2005 who meet the study criteria 

discussed below, greatly expanding the number of federal offender records 

analyzed over past Commission analysis. Following a practice pioneered by the 

Bureau of Justice Statistics,26 the Commission entered into a data sharing 

agreement with the FBI’s Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Division 

and the Administrative Office of the United States Courts to provide the 

Commission with electronic access to criminal history records (i.e., RAP sheets) 

through the CJIS’s Interstate Identification Index (III). The CJIS’s III allows 

authorized agencies to determine whether any repository has criminal history 

records on an individual. Results received over this system provide an 

individual’s criminal history record maintained by all U.S. states, the District of 

Columbia, and federal agencies. Once automated records were obtained, the 

Commission went through an extensive process to standardize offense 

descriptions across all reporting agencies, because states use a variety of statespecific text descriptions and other citations to report the type of offense. 

Disposition information received from law enforcement agencies and courts 

was also standardized. 

Using an automated software program that analyzed and classified 

offender criminal records, the Commission identified and processed the 

criminal records of more than 35,000 offenders who had a valid FBI number in 

either Commission or Bureau of Prisons records and were released during the 

study period, which included primarily calendar year 2005 but was extended 

before and after this year to expand the sample for certain groups. To be 

included in the final cohort, study subjects must have been federal offenders:

• who are citizens;

• who re-entered the community after discharging their sentences of

incarceration or by commencing a term of probation in 2005;27

• whose pre-sentence investigation report was submitted to the

Commission;

• who have valid FBI numbers which could be located in criminal history

repositories (in at least one of the 50 states, DC, or federal records);

and

Page 8
• who were not reported dead, escaped, or detained; and

• whose federal sentence was not vacated.

The Commission examined all offenses committed by the offenders in 

the study group and ranked the offenses in order of seriousness. In general, the 

Commission followed a widely accepted ranking scheme used by the Bureau of 

Justice Statistics in prior recidivism research.28 The ranking generally begins 

with the most serious violent crimes, proceeds to less serious violent crimes, 

next ranking property, drug, and public order crimes. The exception to this 

general pattern is that the Commission ranked drug trafficking just below 

violent crimes and above all property crimes.

The study expands on previous Commission practice in another sense. 

This study cohort was tracked in the community for eight years, compared to 

previous follow-up periods that ranged from two to five years. Because the risk 

of re-offending may extend for long periods after release into the community, 

longer follow-up periods may reveal recidivism that would otherwise be 

undetected. The longer period may also provide insight into offenders with 

multiple recidivism incidents, or periods of activity and inactivity. 

The Study Group 

This report examines 25,431 offenders who were released into the 

community (either from federal prison or on to probation) in calendar year 

2005 and met all of the above criteria. The advantages of this large study group 

are substantial. Having several thousand offenders allows more precise 

estimates of recidivism rates across different subgroups. For example, there are 

4,664 female offenders in this study, and 1,048 released offenders were older 

than sixty years of age.

Offender Demographics

Male offenders constituted more than four of every five (81.7%) 

offenders in this study. White offenders were the largest group (43.7%), 

followed by Black (33.9%), Hispanic (17.8%), and Other Race (4.6%).

The median age at time of sentencing was 33 years for offenders in this 

study. The median age at release was 36 years. However, over four percent of 

offenders were released into the community after age sixty. Regarding the 

highest education level attained by released offenders, about one-third (34.3%) 

did not complete high school, while most (65.7%) completed at least high 

school, including some offenders (7.5%) who were college graduates.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 1. 

Demographic Characteristics of Recidivism Study Offenders

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Federal Offense Type and Criminal History

Over two in five (41.7%) federal offenders released in 2005 and 

included in this study group were released after receiving a conviction for a 

federal offense of drug trafficking. Other federal offenses which were common 

to this study group are fraud (13.6%); unlawful receipt, possession, or 

transportation of firearms (12.8%); robbery (4.3%); larceny (3.9%); and 

immigration29 (3.5%). All other offenses constituted the remaining 20. 3 

percent.

An offender’s prior criminal record is an important consideration at 

sentencing. Offenders sentenced in the federal system usually receive criminal 

history points for each prior sentence based on the number and severity of past 

criminal conduct. For example, each prior sentence of imprisonment exceeding 

one year and one month generally receives three points. In addition to points 

for prior sentences, if the defendant committed the federal offense while under 

any criminal justice sentence, such as probation, two additional points are 

added. Some prior sentences are not counted because of staleness, their minor 

nature, or other reasons.30 The total number of criminal history points 

determine the Criminal History Category (I-VI) to which the offender is assigned 

for the purpose of determine the sentencing guideline range. 

Criminal History Category (CHC) I comprises 53.6 percent of the study 

group, and is assigned to offenders with zero or one criminal history point, the 

lowest or least serious level of past criminal conduct. In contrast, 7.6 percent of 

offenders in this study were assigned to CHC VI (13 or more criminal history 

points), indicating the highest or most serious level of past criminal conduct.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 2. 

Offense Types and Criminal History Scores of Recidivism Study Offenders

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Sentences Originally Imposed

The offenders in this study were sentenced for their instant federal 

offenses between 1990 and 2005. About one-quarter of offenders were 

sentenced before 2002 while about three-quarters of offenders were sentenced 

before 2005. Of all the offenders in the study, over three-quarters (77.8%) were 

sentenced before the Supreme Court’s January 12, 2005 decision in United 

States v. Booker,31 which held that the sentencing guidelines were advisory only.

At their original sentencings for their instant federal offenses, 14.1

percent of the offenders in the study group were sentenced to probation only 

(i.e., probation with no condition of confinement); 4.7 percent were sentenced 

to probation with a condition of confinement; 3.9 percent were sentenced to a 

“split” sentence of imprisonment to be followed by a non-prison alternative 

confinement; and 77.4 percent were sentenced to a term of imprisonment 

only.32 Because the vast majority of offenders who received probation with a 

condition of confinement served that period of confinement in home detention 

or in a halfway house rather than in a jail or prison,33 such offenders will be 

analyzed together with offenders who received probation without a condition of 

confinement. Furthermore, because offenders who received “split” sentences 

received a median term of imprisonment of 5 months, those offenders will be 

analyzed together with offenders who received sentences of imprisonment only. 

Therefore, for ease of analysis and presentation, the discussion of recidivism 

rates of the study group by sentence type that appear in Recidivism and 

Sentences Imposed below will consider only the following two34 larger groups of 

offenders: (1) offenders who received a probationary sentence, regardless of 

whether it had a condition of confinement (18.8 percent of the study group), or 

(2) offenders who received a sentence of imprisonment, regardless of whether 

it was a “split” sentence or a sentence of imprisonment only (81.2 percent of the 

study group).35 

The median length of imprisonment for all released offenders was 37 

months; however, one-tenth (12.3%) of the offenders received a sentence of ten 

years or more. 

A term of supervised release may be ordered to follow any term of 

imprisonment, and must be ordered if required by statute.36 The most common 

length of supervised release ordered at sentencing (54.0%) was three years. 

One-quarter (25.2%) of released offenders were ordered to serve five years or 

more of supervised release, including 0.6 percent ordered to serve ten years or 

more. Because the study follow-up period was eight years, and the typical 

length of supervision was not more than three years, most offenders completed 

their term of supervision, and were no longer on supervision for much of the 

follow-up period. 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 3. 

Sentences Imposed on Recidivism Study Offenders

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It is important to note that most sentenced offenders released during 

the study period, with the exception of most probationers, were sentenced prior 

to the Booker decision37 that rendered the federal sentencing guidelines 

“effectively advisory.”38 The impact of this decision, as reported in the 

Commission’s Report on the Continuing Impact of U.S. v. Booker on Federal 

Sentencing, is that “the rates of non-government sponsored below range 

sentences have increased in most districts.”39 Three-quarters (77.8%) of 

offenders discussed in this study were sentenced before Booker. 

Although the study group was released several years ago, this group is 

generally well-matched to citizen offenders sentenced in 2014. Both the study 

group and citizen offenders sentenced in 2014 are predominantly male (81.7% 

and 81.2%, respectively). White offenders are the most numerous 

race/ethnicity group, 43.7 percent for the study group and 38.1 percent for the 

2014 sentenced offenders. Black offenders (33.9% for the study group and 

32.7% for the 2014 sentenced offenders, respectively) and Hispanic offenders 

(17.8% and 23.4%, respectively) are sufficiently well-matched. The median age 

at sentencing for the study group (33 years old) is close to the median for 2014 

sentenced citizens (35 years old). 

The Criminal History Categories are also well-matched. CHC I is the 

most common category for both groups, 53.7 percent for the study group and 

46.8 percent for 2014 sentenced offenders. Conviction for a federal offense of 

drug trafficking is the most common offense, 41.7 percent of the study group 

and 36.4 percent for the 2014 sentenced group. Offenses involving firearms 

(12.8% and 17.0%, respectively) and fraud (13.6% and 14.2%, respectively) are 

also well-matched. Given these similarities, it is reasonable to assume that the 

recidivism findings available from the study group analysis are relevant to 

currently sentenced offenders. 

Page 12
Page 13
PART IV

Detailed Recidivism Findings
General Recidivism Rates

As mentioned earlier, this report uses three different measures of 

recidivism—rearrest, reconviction, and reincarceration.

Rearrest

Almost one-half of offenders released in 2005 (49.3%) were rearrested 

for a new crime or for an alleged violation of the conditions of their supervision 

over the eight year follow-up period. The median time to rearrest was 21 

months, meaning that for one-half of the offenders rearrest occurred in less 

than two years following their initial release from prison or placement on 

probation. Among those who recidivated, the median number of rearrest 

events (events occurring on separate days) was two, but 21.2 percent of 

recidivist offenders were rearrested five times or more. When considering only 

the “most serious” offense committed by those who were rearrested, the most 

serious event that was most prevalent was assault. About one-fourth (23.3%) 

of those rearrested had an assault rearrest as their most serious charge over the 

study period. Other common “most serious” offenses were other public order 

(15.5%), drug trafficking (11.5%), and larceny (7.7%).

Reconviction 

Almost one-third (31.7%) of offenders were reconvicted over the study 

period. Most offenders who were reconvicted were reconvicted once. The 

median time to reconviction, as measured from the date of the arrest that led to 

the reconviction, was 30 months. About one-fourth (23.9%) of those 

reconvicted had an assault conviction as their most serious charge over the 

study period. Other common most serious offenses were drug trafficking 

(13.5%), other public order (8.7%), and larceny (8.5%).

Reincarceration

One-quarter (24.6%) of offenders were reincarcerated over the study 

period. Most offenders who were reincarcerated were reincarcerated once. 

The median time to arrest for the offense that led to reincarceration was 29 

months. More offenders (23.8%) were reincarcerated for an assault crime as 

their most serious offense than for any other offense. Other common most 

serious offenses were drug trafficking (14.5%), other public order (8.4%), and 

larceny (7.8%).

Comparison to State Prisoners

Compared to a cohort of state prisoners released into the community in 

2005 and tracked by the Bureau of Justice Statistics, federal offenders had a 

lower recidivism rate. BJS found that 76.6 percent of offenders released from 

state prison were rearrested within five years. The Commission, using a 

comparable five year follow-up period and including only federal offenders 

released from prison (i.e., excluding those sentenced to probation or a fineonly), found the recidivism rate for these federal offenders was 44.9 percent.40 

Using reconviction as the measure of recidivism, BJS found that 55.4 

percent of state offenders had an arrest within five years that led to a 

conviction. The reconviction rate for federal offenders over the same length of 

time was 26.0 percent. When recidivism is measured by reincarceration, BJS 

found a 28.2 recidivism rate for state offenders within five years that led to an 

incarceration, compared to 20.7 percent of the federal offenders in the 

Commission’s study.

Table 1. 

Overview of Recidivism Study Findings

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Time to First Recidivism Event

The measure of the time to first recidivism event can be useful in 

distinguishing offenders who recidivate early from those who eventually 

recidivate, but are apparently crime-free for a longer interval. Tracking the 

length of time to failure can also help policymakers determine an appropriate 

period of supervision after the release from prison, for example by extending 

supervision through the peak crime-prone interval.41 Time from release to first 

arrest is shown for all rearrests, reconvictions, and reincarcerations. 

During the first year following release into the community, 16.6 percent 

of the offenders in the Commission’s study were rearrested for the first time. 

Each subsequent year fewer people were rearrested for the first time than in 

the previous year, going out to year seven. For example, 10.5 percent of the 

total were rearrested in the second year, and 6.6 percent of the total were 

rearrested in the third year. An additional 1.8 percent of offenders who were 

not previously arrested were rearrested in the eighth year, as demonstrated 

below.

Figure 4.

Time to First Rearrest of Recidivism Study Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. The reconviction and reconfinement lines indicate time to first arrest that led to a conviction and time to first arrest that led to a confinement, respectively.

Table 2. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05.

Page 16
Most Serious Recidivism Offense

The Commission ranked new offenses in order of seriousness for those 

who reoffended. When considering only the “most serious” post-release offense 

committed by those who were rearrested, assault was the most prevalent.

About one-fourth (23.3%) of those rearrested had an assault rearrest as their 

most serious post-release event over the study period. Other common “most 

serious” offenses were public order (15.5%), drug trafficking (11.5%), and 

larceny (7.7%).

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 5. 

Recidivism Study Offenders by Most Serious Recidivism Offense

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Recidivism and Criminal History

The relationship between prior criminal record and recidivism has 

been recognized by the Commission since its inception in the mid-1980s, as 

discussed in Chapter Four of the Guidelines Manual.42 Empirical research 

assessing correlates of recidivism and criminal career behavior was consulted 

in formulating the criminal history scoring system43 and recent research 

confirms this relationship.44 The previously referenced Commission study, 

Measuring Recidivism (2004), confirmed that Chapter Four’s criminal history 

provisions were working as designed, and recidivism rates rise as criminal 

history points increase and as Criminal History Categories increase. The 

present analysis confirms that these criminal history provisions continue to 

work as designed.

An offender’s total criminal history points, which determines the CHC 

to which the offender is assigned for the purpose of calculating the sentencing 

range under the guidelines, is designed in part to reflect recidivism potential. In 

order “to protect the public from further crimes of the particular defendant, the 

likelihood of recidivism and future criminal behavior must be considered.”45 

Fully consistent with its previous recidivism studies, the Commission’s present 

study found that recidivism rates are most closely correlated with total criminal 

history points. For example, 30.2 percent of offenders with zero total criminal 

history points were rearrested within eight years, compared to 81.5 percent of 

offenders with more than 10 total criminal history points. In fact, each 

additional criminal history point is generally associated with a greater 

likelihood of recidivism. For example, the rearrest rate of offenders with three 

total criminal history points is 52.7 percent, compared to 59.4 percent for four

point offenders. This pattern continues even at higher total points, with

rearrest rates ranging from 71.1 percent (seven point offenders), 74.0 percent 

(eight point offenders), and 76.1 percent (nine point offenders).46

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 6. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Points

Page 18
Because an offender’s criminal history score determines the CHC to 

which he or she is assigned, recidivism rates are also correlated with the CHC. 

That is, the higher the CHC (a result of more prior crimes and/or more serious 

crimes), the higher the recidivism rate. Rearrest rates ranged from a low of 33.8 

percent for those in CHC I to a high of 80.1 percent for those in CHC VI. 

Other guideline provisions that account for an offender’s prior crimes 

also serve as good predictors of future recidivism. For example, offenders 

designated under the guidelines as career offenders47 and armed career 

criminals48 receive substantially increased sentences because 

they are repeat offenders with serious criminal backgrounds. These offenders 

have substantially higher recidivism rates than other offenders in the study 

group. In fact, those two groups of offenders have the highest recidivism rates 

of any group in this report. Taken together, these offenders had a rearrest rate 

of 69.5 percent, compared to a rearrest rate of 48.7 percent for all other 

offenders.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 7A. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Criminal History Category

Figure 7B.

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study 

Offenders by Career Offender/Armed 

Career Criminal Status

Page 19
Recidivism and an Offender’s Federal Offense

The Commission did not find a strong correlation between the severity 

of the offender’s federal offense conduct, as determined under the sentencing 

guidelines, and future recidivism. Under the guidelines, the seriousness of an 

offender’s federal crime is measured by a final offense level score ranging from 

one to 43. There is not a strong correspondence between final offense level and 

recidivism. For example, offenders whose federal offense was assigned to the 

lowest final offense levels (one through eight) had a rearrest rate of 45.2 

percent, almost the same rearrest rate as those assigned the highest 

final offense levels of 31 through 43 (45.7%). It should be noted, however, that 

the offense levels in the federal sentencing guidelines were intended to reflect 

multiple purposes of punishment, including just punishment and general 

deterrence (which are unrelated to offender recidivism).49

Although the specific numerical offense severity determined under the 

sentencing guidelines appears to not be correlated with recidivism, the type of 

crime the offender committed does have some correlation with the risk of 

future crime. Offenders whose federal offense involved firearms were most 

likely to be rearrested (68.3%), followed by those arrested for robbery (67.3%), 

immigration (55.7%), drug trafficking (49.9%), larceny (44.4%), other (42.0%), 

and fraud (34.2%). 

Offenders who received an enhanced sentence for a weapon, either 

through a conviction under 18 U.S.C. § 924(c) or by application of a specific 

offense characteristic in the guidelines for having a weapon present during 

commission of a crime,50 had higher recidivism rates than other offenders. 

Offenders with such a weapon enhancement had a rearrest rate of 55.4 percent, 

compared to 48.6 percent for all other offenders.

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 8. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Final Offense Level and Federal Offense Type

Page 20
Offenders who were organizers, leaders, managers, or supervisors of an 

offense received an aggravating role adjustment of 2, 3, or 4 levels51 under the 

guidelines, increasing their total offense level. Those with such an aggravating 

role adjustment were less likely to recidivate than other offenders. Those 

receiving no adjustment (93.6 percent of all offenders in the study) had a 

rearrest rate of 50.2 percent. However, those receiving aggravating role 

adjustments had recidivism rates of: 37.3 percent (two level increase); 35.6 

percent (three level increase); and 33.7 percent (four level increase).

Offenders who were found to have a minor or minimal role in an 

offense received a mitigating role adjustment of 2, 3, or 4 levels52 under the 

guidelines, decreasing their total offense level. Offenders in the study with such 

a mitigating role adjustment (10.6% of all offenders) were somewhat less likely 

to recidivate than other offenders. Those receiving no adjustment had a 

rearrest rate of 49.7 percent. However, those receiving mitigating role 

adjustments had recidivism rates of: 47.2 percent (two level decrease); 37.5 

percent (three level decrease); and 43.6 percent (four level decrease).

An offender who demonstrates acceptance of responsibility for his 

offense can receive a reduction in offense level of 2 or 3 levels.53 The vast 

majority of all offenders in the Commission’s study (90.7%) received a 

reduction in their guideline range for acceptance of responsibility. Such an 

adjustment was not associated with lower recidivism rates. Offenders with no 

adjustment under §3E1.1 had a rearrest rate of 46.3 percent. Offenders who 

received a two-level decrease had a rearrest rate of 46.6 percent, and those with 

a three level decrease were higher still (50.9%).

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 9.

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Selected Guideline Characteristics

Page 21
Recidivism and Sentences Imposed 

Recidivism rates differ according to the type of sentence imposed. As 

previously noted, 81.2 percent of the study group were sentenced to some 

amount of imprisonment. These offenders had the highest rate of rearrest, 52.5 

percent. Conversely, offenders sentenced to probationary sentences (18.8 

percent of the study group) had a rearrest rate of 35.1 percent.54

Offenders with shorter lengths of imprisonment generally had lower 

recidivism rates. For instance, offenders with sentences of imprisonment of 

fewer than six months had the lowest rearrest rate at 37.5 percent, followed by 

offenders with sentences from six to 11 months (50.8 percent), and 12 to fewer 

than 24 months (50.8%). Conversely, the highest recidivism rates are generally 

found among offenders with longer sentences. Those with sentences from 60 

months to fewer than 120 months had the highest rate (55.5%), followed 

closely by those with 24 to fewer than 60 months (54.0%), and 120 months or 

more (51.8%).55

The correlation between sentence type and length and recidivism is 

not, of course, entirely a coincidence. The guidelines are intended, in part, to 

incapacitate offenders whose criminal records indicate a greater risk of future 

criminality. Those with prison sentences are incapacitated in a manner that 

those receiving no term of incarceration are not, and those receiving longer 

terms of incarceration as a result of their higher CHCs are also at greater risk of 

recidivism than those receiving no incarceration or a shorter period of 

incarceration who generally had lower CHCs. 

The most common length of supervised release imposed for those 

offenders who received terms of supervised release to follow their terms of 

imprisonment was 36 months. Offenders ordered to serve a term of supervised 

release of three years were the majority of offenders, and this group had the 

highest rearrest rate, 55.4 percent. The lowest rearrest rate was found among 

offenders serving a term of supervised release of ten years or more (42.7%), 

and the second lowest rate occurred with offenders serving two year terms 

(46.8%).

Figure 10.

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Federal Sentences Originally Imposed

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Page 22
Recidivism and Offender Characteristics 

Studies have repeatedly shown that older offenders at sentencing are at 

lower risk for reoffending, and the Commission’s research confirms these 

findings.56 Offenders sentenced when younger than twenty-one had a 71.1 

percent rearrest rate, compared to 14.0 percent of offenders who are sentenced 

after age sixty.

Age at release also is associated with different rates of recidivism. 

Those released into the community who were below age twenty-one had the 

highest rearrest rate, 67.6 percent. Conversely, those oldest at age of release, 

over sixty years old, had the lowest recidivism rate, 16.0 percent. For each age 

grouping shown below, the older the age group, the lower the rearrest rate. The 

same pattern holds for reconviction and reincarceration.

Figure 11. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Age at Sentencing and Release

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Page 23
Male offenders (52.2%) were rearrested at higher rates than females 

(36.4%). 

Eight years after release into the community, Black offenders had been 

arrested at the highest rates (59.1%), followed by Other Race (49.4%), Hispanic 

(49.1%), and White (41.7%) offenders. However, the apparent relationship 

between race/ethnicity and recidivism is much less pronounced if the prior 

criminal history of these offenders is also examined. For offenders assigned to 

higher CHCs, recidivism results are similar, regardless of race or ethnicity. 

Rearrest rates for White, Black, and Hispanic offenders in CHC IV are 69.7 

percent, 77.6 percent, and 75.4 percent, respectively. At CHC V for the same 

three groups, the rearrest rates are 75.6, 78.5, and 79.9 percent, respectively. At 

CHC VI for the same three groups, the rearrest rates are 77.1, 82.4, and 79.3 

percent, respectively. Much of the difference in overall recidivism rates appears 

to be the result of the differing proportion of Black offenders in CHC I (38.9%), 

compared to White offenders (59.7%) and Hispanic offenders (62.2%).

Education levels are also associated with different rates of recidivism. 

Offenders with less than a high school diploma had the highest recidivism rates 

(60.4%), followed by high school graduates (50.7%) and those with some 

college (39.3%). College graduates had the lowest rates (19.1%). 

SOURCE: U.S. Sentencing Commission’s 2005 Recidivism Release Cohort Datafile, RECID05. Of the 25,431 cases in this study, the Commission excluded cases from this analysis that were missing information necessary to perform the analysis.

Figure 12. 

Rearrest Rates for Recidivism Study Offenders by Selected Demographic Characteristics

Page 24
Page 25
PART 

V

Conclusion
Conclusion

The study of recidivism by federal offenders directly relates to multiple 

statutory purposes of punishment as set forth in the Sentencing Reform Act of 

1984. Using automated criminal history data, the Commission tracked 25,431 

federal offenders who either discharged a federal prison sentence or 

commenced a term of probation in 2005 during an eight-year follow-up period. 

The Commission found that almost one-half of these federal offenders who 

reentered the community in 2005 (49.3%) were rearrested for a new crime or 

rearrested for a violation of supervision conditions during the follow-up period. 

The Commission found that, consistent with existing research,57 two 

factors – offenders’ criminal histories and their ages at the time of release into 

the community – were most closely associated with differences in recidivism 

rates. Younger offenders recidivated at significantly higher rates than older 

offenders, and offenders with more extensive criminal histories recidivated at 

significantly higher rates than offenders with lesser criminal histories. 

Regarding criminal history in particular, the Commission found that an 

offenders’ total criminal history points, as determined under Chapter Four of 

the Commission’s Guidelines Manual, were closely correlated with recidivism 

rates. 

Other factors, including educational achievement and offense type, also 

were associated with differences in recidivism rates, but less so than age and 

criminal history. Certain factors related to provisions in Chapters Two and 

Three of the Guidelines Manual – including adjustments in an offender’s offense 

level as well as the total offense level – were not associated with differences in 

rates of recidivism. However, unlike Chapter Four’s provisions – which were 

based in large part on recidivism data – the guideline’s offense level 

computations are based on several purposes of punishment, some of which are 

unrelated to recidivism, including general deterrence and retributivist 

concerns. 

In the coming months, the Commission will issue additional reports 

based on its recidivism study.

Page 27
ENDNOTES
1

 The United States Sentencing Commission (“Commission”) is an independent agency in the judicial branch of government. Established by the Sentencing Reform Act of 1984, 

its principal purposes are (1) to establish sentencing policies and practices for the federal courts, including guidelines regarding the appropriate form and severity of punishment for 

offenders convicted of federal crimes; (2) to advise and assist Congress, the federal judiciary, and the executive branch in the development of effective and efficient crime policy; 

and (3) to collect, analyze, research, and distribute a broad array of information on federal crime and sentencing issues. See 28 U.S.C. §§ 995(a)(14), (15), (20).

2

 See U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT ON THE INITIAL SENTENCING GUIDELINES AND POLICY STATEMENTS 41-44 (1987), 

http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/guidelines-manual/1987/manual-pdf/1987_Supplementary_Report_Initial_Sentencing_Guidelines.pdf (hereinafter SUPPLEMENTARY 

REPORT); see also U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, RECIDIVISM AMONG OFFENDERS RECEIVING RETROACTIVE SENTENCE REDUCTIONS: THE 2007 CRACK COCAINE AMENDMENT 

(2014), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-projects-andsurveys/miscellaneous/20140527_Recidivism_2007_Crack_Cocaine_Amendment.pdf (hereinafter CRACK COCAINE RECIDIVISM REPORT); U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, REPORT TO 

CONGRESS: FEDERAL CHILD PORNOGRAPHY OFFENSES 293-310 (2012), HTTP://WWW.USSC.GOV/SITES/DEFAULT/FILES/PDF/NEWS/CONGRESSIONAL-TESTIMONY-AND-REPORTS/SEXOFFENSE-TOPICS/201212-FEDERAL-CHILD-PORNOGRAPHY-OFFENSES/FULL_REPORT_TO_CONGRESS.PDF (hereinafter CHILD PORNOGRAPHY REPORT); U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, A

COMPARISON OF THE FEDERAL SENTENCING GUIDELINES CRIMINAL HISTORY CATEGORY AND THE U.S. PAROLE COMMISSION SALIENT FACTOR SCORE (2005), 

http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-publications/2005/20050104_Recidivism_Salient_Factor_Computation.pdf (hereinafter SALIENT 

FACTOR SCORE); U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, RECIDIVISM AND THE “FIRST OFFENDER” (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/researchpublications/2004/200405_Recidivism_First_Offender.pdf (hereinafter FIRST OFFENDER); U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, MEASURING RECIDIVISM: THE CRIMINAL HISTORY 

COMPUTATION OF THE FEDERAL SENTENCING GUIDELINES (2004), http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/researchpublications/2004/200405_Recidivism_Criminal_History.pdf (hereinafter MEASURING RECIDIVISM).

3

 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(2)(C).

4

 The SRA provides that:

The court, in determining the particular sentence to be imposed, shall consider. . . the need for the sentence imposed— 

(A) to reflect the seriousness of the offense, to promote respect for the law, and to provide just punishment for the offense; 

(B) to afford adequate deterrence to criminal conduct; 

(C) to protect the public from further crimes of the defendant; and 

(D) to provide the defendant with needed educational or vocational training, medical care, or other correctional treatment in the most effective manner.

Id.; see also 28 U.S.C. § 991(b) (“[T]he United States Sentencing Commission [shall] establish sentencing policies and practices for the Federal criminal justice system that . . . 

assure the meeting of the purposes of sentencing as set forth in section 3553(a)(2) of title 18, United States Code.”). The SRA requires courts and the Commission to consider both 

general and specific deterrence. See United States v. Martin, 455 F.3d 1227, 1240 (11th Cir. 2006).

5

 28 U.S.C. § 991(b)(2).

6

 See SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT, supra note 2, at 41-44.

Page 29
7

 See MEASURING RECIDIVISM, supra note 2.

8

 See generally SALIENT FACTOR SCORE, supra note 2; FIRST OFFENDER, supra note 2. 

9

 See CRACK COCAINE RECIDIVISM REPORT, supra note 2; CHILD PORNOGRAPHY REPORT, supra note 2, at 293-310.

10 See, e.g., Final Priorities for Amendment Cycle, 79 FED. REG. 49378, 49379 (Aug. 20, 2014) (“Pursuant to 28 U.S.C. § 994(g), the Commission intends to consider the issue of 

reducing costs of incarceration and overcapacity of prisons, to the extent it is relevant to any identified priority.”).

11 See, e.g., U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, ANNUAL REPORT: FISCAL YEAR 2014, A-5 (2014).

12 Courtney Semisch, U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, ALTERNATIVE SENTENCING IN THE FEDERAL CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM (2015), 

http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/research-projects-and-surveys/alternatives/20150617_Alternatives.pdf.

13 FEDERAL BUREAU OF PRISONS, Statistics, https://web.archive.org/web/20160211120327/https://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/population_statistics.jsp (Feb. 11, 2016) (reporting 

195,730 inmates, including 44,362 non-citizens). 

14 BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, PRISONERS IN 2014, http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p14.pdf (1,561,500 state prisoners as of 2014).

15 See USSG, App’x C, amend. 782 (“Reason for Amendment”) (in voting to apply an amendment to the drug-trafficking guidelines that reduced offense levels for many 

offenders, the Commission noted that it “was informed by its studies that compared recidivism rates for offenders who were released early as a result of retroactive application of 

the Commission’s 2007 crack cocaine amendment with a control group of offenders who served their full terms of imprisonment”). 

16 Judges are required to apply the federal sentencing guidelines, now “advisory” guidelines following United States v. Booker, 543 U.S. 220 (2005), before deciding what 

sentence to impose and these guidelines continue to have a significant policy effect on federal sentencing. See, e.g., Peugh v. United States, 133 S. Ct. 2072, 2084 (2013) 

(“[C]onsiderable empirical evidence indicat[es] that the Sentencing Guidelines have the intended effect of influencing the sentences imposed by judges.”).

17 See NAT’L INST. OF JUSTICE, Recidivism, https://web.archive.org/web/20160120175242/http://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/welcome.aspx (Jan. 20, 2016). 

18 See MICHAEL D. MALTZ, RECIDIVISM 7-20 (2001); see also Ryan King & Brian Elderboom, Improving Recidivism as a Performance Measure, URBAN INSTITUTE (2014), 

https://www.bja.gov/Publications/UI-ImprovingRecidivism.pdf. 

19 See, e.g., Christopher T. Lowenkamp, Marie VanNostrand, and Alexander Holsinger, INVESTIGATING THE IMPACT OF PRETRIAL DETENTION ON SENTENCING OUTCOMES (2013), 

http://pretrialnola.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Investigating-the-Impact-of-Pretrial-Detention-on-Sentencing-Outcomes-2013.pdf; Elizabeth 

Drake, Steve Aos, and Marna Miller, Evidence Based Public Policy Options to Reduce Crime and Criminal Justice Costs: Implications in Washington State, in 4 VICTIMS AND 

OFFENDERS 170-96 (2009); NAT’L RESEARCH COUNCIL, PAROLE, DESISTANCE FROM CRIME, AND COMMUNITY INTEGRATION, 19-31 (2008). 

20 Recidivism, supra note 18 (“[R]ecidivism is measured by rearrest, reconviction or return to prison.”); See also, NAT’L INST. OF JUSTICE, Measuring Recidivism, 

https://web.archive.org/web/20160129195540/http://www.nij.gov/topics/corrections/recidivism/pages/measuring.aspx (Jan. 29, 2016) (“The timing of recidivism is key not only to 

its measurement but also to understanding the processes underlying the effects of sanctions and interventions with respect to the propensity of the individual to commit crime.”) 

21 See MALTZ, supra note 18, at 20-21, 28-29, 55-58; Improving Recidivism as a Performance Measure, supra note 19.

Page 30
22 Arrests for alleged violations of probation, supervised release, or state parole (as well as actual revocations of any these types of supervision) were counted as rearrests. 

Revocations were not counted as reconvictions because the offenders were not convicted of a new offense (even if the basis for revocation was a “new law violation”). Offenders 

whose terms of supervision were revoked and who were sentenced to imprisonment were treated as reincarcerations.

23 See MALTZ, supra note 18; Improving Recidivism as a Performance Measure, supra note 18. 

24 Matthew Durose, Alexia Cooper, and Howard Snyder, BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005: Patterns from 2005 to 2010

(2014) (hereinafter Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005), http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf. 

25 William Rhodes, et al., ABT ASSOCIATES, Recidivism of Offenders on Federal Community Supervision (2012), https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/bjs/grants/241018.pdf. 

26 Recidivism of Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005, supra note 24 (discussing the methodology employed by BJS for collecting and processing criminal records for 

recidivism research). The Bureau of Justice Statistics is the United States' primary source for criminal justice statistics, including statistics on crime, criminal offenders, victims of 

crime, and the operation of justice systems at all levels of government. See http://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=abu. Appendix B of this report discusses the procedures employed 

by the Commission.

27 All of the federal offenders who re-entered the community after discharging their sentences of incarceration had served those sentences continuously from the time of the 

imposition of the sentences until the time of the offenders’ re-entry in 2005. None of the offenders released from their sentences of incarceration in 2005 had previously been 

returned to prison upon revocation of probation or supervised release terms imposed in connection with their instant federal offenses of conviction. 

28 See Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005, supra note 24. 

29 Immigration crimes committed by citizens are most commonly sentenced under USSG §2L1.1 (alien smuggling) rather than USSG §2L1.2 (illegal reentry).

30 See generally USSG §§4A1.1; 4A1.2. 

31 543 U.S. 220 (2005).

32 These four different sentence types correspond to the four “Zones” (A-D) in the Sentencing Table in the Guidelines Manual. See USSG, Ch. 5, Pt. A (Sentencing Table); see 

also USSG §§5B1.1 & 5C1.1 (setting forth the sentencing options for Zones A-D). Zone A authorizes probation only; Zone B authorizes probation with a condition of 

confinement; Zone C authorizes a “split” sentence of imprisonment and community confinement (e.g., home detention or a halfway house); and Zone D authorizes sentences of 

imprisonment only. See USSG §§5B1.1 & 5C1.1.

33 Of the offenders who received a Zone B sentence of probation with a condition of confinement, only 0.9 percent served the confinement in a jail or prison. The remainder 

served their confinement in home detention or in community confinement such as a halfway house. 

34 The small percentage of offenders who received a fine only (65 members of the study group) are excluded from the analysis.

35 Imprisonment sentences are sentences to a term of confinement in the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) with or without a sentence to community confinement or probation to 

follow (as a condition of supervised release pursuant to USSG §5C1.1(c)(2) or (d)(2)). Probation sentences may include either a period of community confinement. The term 

alternative confinement refers to a period of confinement in a location other than a BOP facility, usually home detention or a halfway house.

 Typically, federal offenders sentenced to terms of imprisonment of less than one year serve their sentences in a local jail or detention center rather than a federal prison. See

FED. BUREAU OF PRISONS, LEGAL RESOURCE GUIDE TO THE FEDERAL BUREAU OF PRISONS, 2014, 10 (2014), 

Page 31
https://www.bop.gov/resources/pdfs/legal_guide.pdf (“The BOP will often contract with a local jail or detention center to house an inmate sentenced to a term of one year or 

less.”). Regardless of whether a federal offender served his or her sentence in a jail or prison, that sentence will be deemed a “sentence of imprisonment” for the analyses that 

follow.

36 U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, FEDERAL OFFENDERS SENTENCED TO SUPERVISED RELEASE 4-9 (2010).

37 Booker, 543 U.S. 220.

38 Id. at 245.

39 U.S. SENTENCING COMM’N, REPORT ON THE CONTINUING IMPACT OF U.S. V. BOOKER ON FEDERAL SENTENCING 7 (2012). 

40 See Prisoners Released in 30 States in 2005, supra note 24. The inmates released from 30 state prisons in 2005 included in the BJS study differ from the population released 

from federal prison that same year in several respects. A quarter (25.7 percent) of released state inmates had a violent commitment offense compared to only 6.8 percent of 

inmates released from federal prison. State offenders were more likely to be under 40 (68.5 percent) and male (89.3 percent) than the federal offenders (60.1 percent under age 40 

and 85.9 percent male). The BJS study also included non-U.S. citizens, a category of offender excluded from the Commission’s study.

41 The National Advisory Commission on Criminal Justice Standards and Goals recommends a three year follow-up period, but recognizes this as “an arbitrary figure.” NATIONAL 

ADVISORY COMMISSION ON CRIMINAL JUSTICE STANDARDS AND GOALS, CORRECTIONS 529 (1973) 

42 See USSG, Ch.4, Pt.A, intro. comment.

43 See SUPPLEMENTARY REPORT, supra note 2, at 41-44.

44 See RHODES, supra note 25 at 12; Alfred Blumstein, David P. Farrington, and Soumyo Moitra, CRIME AND JUSTICE: A REVIEW OF RESEARCH 216 (1985), 

Delinquency Careers: Innocents, Desisters, and Persisters. In two major cohort studies, the recidivism probability of youthful offenders rose with successive involvements with 

law enforcement; Paul Gendreau, Tracy Little, and Claire Goggin, Criminology, (2008), A Meta-Analysis Of The Predictors Of Adult Offender Recidivism: What Works! at 575. A 

meta-analysis of 131 studies found the strongest predictors of recidivism included criminogenic needs, criminal history, social achievement, age/gender/race, and family factors.

45 USSG, Ch.4, Pt.A, intro. comment.

46 This group falls within CHC IV.

47 Career Offenders are persons who commit a crime of violence or drug trafficking crime after being convicted of two prior felony drug trafficking or crime of violence offenses. 

See USSG §4B1.1. 

48 Armed Career Criminals are persons subject to an enhanced sentence under the provisions of 18 U.S.C. § 924(e). USSG §4B1.4.

49 See, e.g., USSG §2H4.1, comment (backg’d) (1995) (“For purposes of deterrence and just punishment, the minimum base offense level is 15.”). 

50 See, e.g., USSG §2D1.1(b)(1).

51 USSG §3B1.1.

Page 32
52 USSG §3B1.2.

53 USSG §3E1.1.

54 A more detailed analysis of offenders based on the type of sentence imposed – see supra note 32 (discussing the four types of sentences that correspond to Zones A-D of the 

Sentencing Table) – is as follows: Offenders who received probation only had a rearrest rate of 34.5 percent; offenders who received probation with a condition of confinement 

had a rearrest rate of 36.9 percent; offenders who received a “split” sentence had a rearrest rate of 37.2 percent; and offenders who received a sentence of imprisonment only had a 

rearrest rate of 53.3 percent. 

55 4,870 cases with zero months of imprisonment ordered were excluded.

56 See GENDREAU, Supra note 44 at 575; David P. Farrington, Age and Crime, in Crime and Justice: An Annual Review of Research Vol. 7 (Michael Tonry and Norval Morris, 

eds., 1986); Jeffery T. Ulmer and Darrell Steffensmeier, The Age and Crime Relationship: Social Variation, Social Explanations in The Nurture versus Biosocial Debate in 

Criminology 378 (K. Beaver, B. Boutwell, and J.C. Barnes, eds., 2014). “It is now a truism that age is one of the strongest factors associated with criminal behavior.”

57 See GENDREAU, supra note 44 at 575.

Page 33
APPENDIX A-1 

Rearrest Rates Across Selected Variables
Rearrest Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Total 25,431 12,527 49.3%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 13,581 4,594 33.8%

CHC II 3,084 1,674 54.3%

CHC III 3,616 2,288 63.3%

CHC IV 1,996 1,490 74.7%

CHC V 1,121 872 77.8%

CHC VI 1,923 1,541 80.1%

Criminal History Points

0 10,600 3,196 30.2%

1 2,973 1,394 46.9%

2 1,251 701 56.0%

3 1,838 969 52.7%

4 1,361 809 59.4%

5 1,041 659 63.3%

6 1,277 853 66.8%

7 693 493 71.1%

8 741 548 74.0%

9 708 539 76.1%

10 463 358 77.3%

More than 10 2,400 1,956 81.5%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal Status

No Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 24,798 12,087 48.7%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 633 440 69.5%

Criminal History

Appendix A-1
Rearrest Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Final Offense Level 

1 to 8 3,020 1,364 45.2%

9 to 10 1,598 679 42.5%

11 to 12 1,972 1,023 51.9%

13 to 16 3,981 1,949 49.0%

17 to 21 5,283 2,783 52.7%

22 to 25 3,676 1,945 52.9%

26 to 30 3,214 1,538 47.9%

31 to 43 2,580 1,180 45.7%

Federal Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 10,591 5,288 49.9%

Firearms 3,244 2,216 68.3%

Fraud 3,450 1,181 34.2%

Robbery 1,100 740 67.3%

Larceny 994 441 44.4%

Immigration 891 496 55.7%

All Other 5,159 2,165 42.0%

Offense Level and Offense Type

Appendix A-1
Rearrest Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 22,932 11,143 48.6%

Weapon Enhancement 2,499 1,384 55.4%

Aggravating Role

No Adjustment 23,789 11,931 50.2%

+2 Levels 872 325 37.3%

+3 Levels 315 112 35.6%

+4 Levels 439 148 33.7%

Mitigating Role

No Adjustment 22,726 11,287 49.7%

-2 Levels 2,010 948 47.2%

-3 Levels 232 87 37.5%

-4 Levels 447 195 43.6%

Acceptance of Responsibility

No Adjustment 2,372 1,099 46.3%

-2 Levels 7,297 3,403 46.6%

-3 Levels 15,723 8,003 50.9%

Offense Characteristics

Appendix A-1
Rearrest Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Sentence Type

Probation Only 4,754 1,670 35.1%

Prison Only 20,575 10,810 52.5%

Length of Sentence

1,048 393 37.5%

762 387 50.8%

3,655 1,857 50.8%

8,023 4,334 54.0%

4,552 2,525 55.5%

Up to 6 Months 

6 to 11 Months 

12 to 23 Months 

24 to 59 Months 

60 to 119 Months 

120 Months or More 2,521 1,306 51.8%

Sentence Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 15,680 7,881 50.3%

Above Range 197 117 59.4%

5K1.1 Departure 5,112 2,430 47.5%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 520 261 50.2%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 2,134 964 45.2%

Length of Supervised Release

No Supervised Release 121 60 49.6%

Less than 2 Years 627 307 49.0%

2 Years 1,736 813 46.8%

3 Years 11,097 6,149 55.4%

4 Years 1,793 864 48.2%

5 to 9 Years 5,068 2,559 50.5%

10 or More Years 124 53 42.7%

Sentences Imposed

Appendix A-1
Rearrest Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Age at Sentencing 

Younger than 21 1,226 872 71.1%

21 to 25 4,737 3,105 65.6%

26 to 30 4,746 2,755 58.1%

31 to 35 3,895 1,984 50.9%

36 to 40 3,347 1,587 47.4%

41 to 50 4,569 1,639 35.9%

51 to 60 2,125 462 21.7%

Older than 60 741 104 14.0%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 398 269 67.6%

21 to 25 2,986 1,984 66.4%

26 to 30 4,325 2,692 62.2%

31 to 35 4,584 2,533 55.3%

36 to 40 3,762 1,834 48.8%

41 to 50 5,551 2,353 42.4%

51 to 60 2,732 675 24.7%

Older than 60 1,048 168 16.0%

Gender

Male 20,758 10,825 52.2%

Female 4,664 1,696 36.4%

Race/Ethnicity

White 11,099 4,628 41.7%

Black 8,617 5,089 59.1%

Hispanic 4,512 2,213 49.1%

Other 1,179 582 49.4%

Level of Education

Less than High School 8,656 5,230 60.4%

High School Graduate 9,324 4,724 50.7%

Some College 5,409 2,126 39.3%

College Graduate 1,884 359 19.1%

Offender Characteristics

Appendix A-1
APPENDIX A-2 

Reconviction Rates Across Selected Variables
Reconviction Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Total 25,431 8,062 31.7%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 13,581 2,701 19.9%

CHC II 3,084 1,019 33.0%

CHC III 3,616 1,494 41.3%

CHC IV 1,996 1,030 51.6%

CHC V 1,121 634 56.6%

CHC VI 1,923 1,140 59.3%

Criminal History Points

0 10,600 1,844 17.4%

1 2,973 856 28.8%

2 1,251 432 34.5%

3 1,838 587 31.9%

4 1,361 530 38.9%

5 1,041 435 41.8%

6 1,277 543 42.5%

7 693 320 46.2%

8 741 385 52.0%

9 708 377 53.3%

10 463 246 53.1%

More than 10 2,400 1,473 61.4%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal Status

No Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 24,798 7,761 31.3%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 633 301 47.6%

Criminal History

Appendix A-2
Reconviction Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Final Offense Level 

1 to 8 3,020 898 29.7%

9 to 10 1,598 437 27.4%

11 to 12 1,972 688 34.9%

13 to 16 3,981 1,291 32.4%

17 to 21 5,283 1,843 34.9%

22 to 25 3,676 1,217 33.1%

26 to 30 3,214 943 29.3%

31 to 43 2,580 704 27.3%

Federal Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 10,591 3,259 30.8%

Firearms 3,244 1,541 47.5%

Fraud 3,450 731 21.2%

Robbery 1,100 501 45.6%

Larceny 994 296 29.8%

Immigration 891 336 37.7%

All Other 5,159 1,398 27.1%

Offense Level and Offense Type

Appendix A-2
Reconviction Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 22,932 7,177 31.3%

Weapon Enhancement 2,499 885 35.4%

Aggravating Role

No Adjustment 23,789 7,704 32.4%

+2 Levels 872 204 23.4%

+3 Levels 315 68 21.6%

+4 Levels 439 81 18.5%

Mitigating Role

No Adjustment 22,276 7,298 32.1%

-2 Levels 2,010 587 29.2%

-3 Levels 232 47 20.3%

-4 Levels 447 125 28.0%

Acceptance of Responsibility

No Adjustment 2,372 661 27.9%

-2 Levels 7,297 2,244 30.8%

-3 Levels 15,723 5,143 32.7%

Offense Characteristics

Appendix A-2
Reconviction Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Sentence Type

Probation Only 4,754 1,028 21.6%

Prison Only 20,575 7,007 34.1%

Length of Sentence

1,048 246 23.5%

762 243 31.9%

3,655 1,239 33.9%

8,023 2,840 35.4%

4,552 1,613 35.4%

Up to 6 Months 

6 to 11 Months 

12 to 23 Months 

24 to 59 Months 

60 to 119 Months 

120 Months or More 2,521 819 32.5%

Sentence Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 15,680 5,115 32.6%

Above Range 197 88 44.7%

5K1.1 Departure 5,112 1,526 29.9%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 520 168 32.3%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 2,134 602 28.2%

Length of Supervised Release

No Supervised Release 121 41 33.9%

Less than 2 Years 627 188 30.0%

2 Years 1,736 533 30.7%

3 Years 11,097 4,130 37.2%

4 Years 1,793 524 29.2%

5 to 9 Years 5,068 1,558 30.7%

10 or More Years 124 30 24.2%

Sentences Imposed

Appendix A-2
Reconviction Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Age at Sentencing 

Younger than 21 1,226 635 51.8%

21 to 25 4,737 2,128 44.9%

26 to 30 4,746 1,764 37.2%

31 to 35 3,895 1,290 33.1%

36 to 40 3,347 989 29.6%

41 to 50 4,569 931 20.4%

51 to 60 2,125 253 11.9%

Older than 60 741 59 8.0%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 398 193 48.5%

21 to 25 2,986 1,424 47.7%

26 to 30 4,325 1,779 41.1%

31 to 35 4,584 1,614 35.2%

36 to 40 3,762 1,151 30.6%

41 to 50 5,551 1,428 25.7%

51 to 60 2,732 366 13.4%

Older than 60 1,048 94 9.0%

Gender

Male 20,758 7,022 33.8%

Female 4,664 1,035 22.2%

Race/Ethnicity

White 11,099 2,999 27.0%

Black 8,617 3,237 37.6%

Hispanic 4,512 1,409 31.2%

Other 1,179 408 34.6%

Level of Education

Less than High School 8,656 3,484 40.3%

High School Graduate 9,324 3,041 32.6%

Some College 5,409 1,279 23.7%

College Graduate 1,884 196 10.4%

Offender Characteristics

Appendix A-2
APPENDIX A-3 

Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables
Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Total 25,431 6,266 24.6%

Criminal History Category

CHC I 13,581 1,897 14.0%

CHC II 3,084 737 23.9%

CHC III 3,616 1,189 32.9%

CHC IV 1,996 868 43.5%

CHC V 1,121 554 49.4%

CHC V 1,923 986 51.3%

Criminal History Points

0 10,600 1,296 12.2%

1 2,973 600 20.2%

2 1,251 303 24.2%

3 1,838 434 23.6%

4 1,361 401 29.5%

5 1,041 355 34.1%

6 1,277 442 34.6%

7 693 263 38.0%

8 741 322 43.5%

9 708 326 46.1%

10 463 215 46.4%

More than 10 2,400 1,281 53.4%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal Status

No Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 24,798 6,012 24.2%

Career Offender/Armed Career Criminal 633 254 40.1%

Criminal History

Appendix A-3
Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Final Offense Level 

1 to 8 3,020 631 20.9%

9 to 10 1,598 320 20.0%

11 to 12 1,972 536 27.2%

13 to 16 3,981 1,034 26.0%

17 to 21 5,283 1,488 28.2%

22 to 25 3,676 934 25.4%

26 to 30 3,214 744 23.2%

31 to 43 2,580 546 21.2%

Federal Offense Type

Drug Trafficking 10,591 2,475 23.4%

Firearms 3,244 1,258 38.8%

Fraud 3,450 514 14.9%

Robbery 1,100 443 40.3%

Larceny 994 225 22.6%

Immigration 891 272 30.5%

All Other 5,159 1,079 20.9%

Offense Level and Offense Type

Appendix A-3
Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Weapon Enhancement

No Weapon Enhancement 22,932 5,550 24.2%

Weapon Enhancement 2,499 716 28.7%

Aggravating Role

No Adjustment 23,789 5,994 25.2%

+2 Levels 872 154 17.7%

+3 Levels 315 46 14.6%

+4 Levels 439 67 15.3%

Mitigating Role

No Adjustment 22,276 5,693 25.1%

-2 Levels 2,010 442 22.0%

-3 Levels 232 34 14.7%

-4 Levels 447 92 20.6%

Acceptance of Responsibility

No Adjustment 2,372 524 22.1%

-2 Levels 7,297 1,664 22.8%

-3 Levels 15,723 4,066 25.9%

Offense Characteristics

Appendix A-3
Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Sentence Type

Probation 4,754 624 13.1%

Prison 20,575 5,620 27.3%

Length of Sentence

1,048 169 16.1%

762 180 23.6%

3,655 1,015 27.8%

8,023 2,293 28.6%

4,552 1,283 28.2%

Up to 6 Months 

6 to 11 Months 

12 to 23 Months 

24 to 59 Months 

60 to 119 Months 

120 Months or More 2,521 676 26.8%

Sentence Relative to the Guideline Range

Within Range 15,680 4,021 25.6%

Above Range 197 83 42.1%

5K1.1 Departure 5,112 1,132 22.1%

Other Government Sponsored Below Range 520 137 26.4%

Non-Government Sponsored Below Range 2,134 460 21.6%

Length of Supervised Release

No Supervised Release 121 35 28.9%

Less than 2 Years 627 144 23.0%

2 Years 1,736 421 24.3%

3 Years 11,097 3,361 30.3%

4 Years 1,793 396 22.1%

5 to 9 Years 5,068 1,242 24.5%

10 or More Years 124 19 15.3%

Sentences Imposed

Appendix A-3
Reincarceration Rates Across Selected Variables

Total N %

Age at Sentencing 

Younger than 21 1,226 528 43.1%

21 to 25 4,737 1,679 35.4%

26 to 30 4,746 1,382 29.1%

31 to 35 3,895 994 25.5%

36 to 40 3,347 738 22.1%

41 to 50 4,569 707 15.5%

51 to 60 2,125 187 8.8%

Older than 60 741 42 5.7%

Age at Release

Younger than 21 398 142 35.7%

21 to 25 2,986 1,137 38.1%

26 to 30 4,325 1,392 32.2%

31 to 35 4,584 1,246 27.2%

36 to 40 3,762 882 23.4%

41 to 50 5,551 1,108 20.0%

51 to 60 2,732 281 10.3%

Older than 60 1,048 69 6.6%

Gender

Male 20,758 5,560 26.8%

Female 4,664 703 15.1%

Race/Ethnicity

White 11,099 2,266 20.4%

Black 8,617 2,531 29.4%

Hispanic 4,512 1,111 24.6%

Other 1,179 351 29.8%

Level of Education

Less than High School 8,656 2,809 32.5%

High School Graduate 9,324 2,344 25.1%

Some College 5,409 929 17.2%

College Graduate 1,884 134 7.1%

Offender Characteristics

Appendix A-3
APPENDIX B 

Data Collection and Analysis Process
Appendix B: Overview

Previous Commission recidivism studies required manual coding of 

criminal records from state and federal criminal history records (i.e., RAP 

sheets). This project has used technological advances to greatly expand the 

number of federal offender records analyzed as compared to previous 

Commission studies by collecting RAP sheets electronically. This appendix 

describes this data collection and analysis process.

The Commission entered into a data sharing agreement with the FBI’s 

Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) Division and the Administrative 

Office of the United States Courts (AO) to provide the Commission with secure 

electronic access to criminal history records through the CJIS’s Interstate 

Identification Index (III) and the International Justice and Public Safety Network 

(NLETS). Results received using this system provide an individual’s criminal 

history record maintained by all U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and federal 

agencies.1 Once automated records were obtained, the Commission went 

through an extensive process to organize and standardize offense and court 

disposition descriptions across all reporting agencies with the assistance of 

NORC at the University of Chicago (NORC). The resulting database contained 

30,182 offenders who had valid identifying information and were released 

during the study period, which included primarily calendar year 2005 (25,431 

offenders) but was extended before and after this year to expand the sample for 

certain subgroups of offenders (4,751 offenders). This process, described 

below, began in 2014 and the database was completed in August 2015. 

Collecting the Study Group from Commission and Other Records

Identifying information, including FBI numbers required by the NLETS 

system, was collected on 36,007 offenders from Commission, Federal Bureau of 

Prisons (BOP), and AO sources. The primary study cohort includes all federal 

offenders who were either released from federal prison after serving a sentence 

of imprisonment or were placed on probation in 2005. For offenders released 

from prison, the BOP provided release dates, identifying information, some 

reincarceration information, and other relevant information which allowed the 

Commission to identify offenders who could not be reliably studied (e.g., those 

who died while incarcerated). For offenders placed on probation, the AO 

provided identifying information, some revocation information, and other 

relevant information (e.g., death while under supervision).

Criminal history records were also drawn for two secondary offender 

groups for inclusion in possible future studies. The first group selected for 

additional collection was citizen offenders sentenced under USSG §4B1.1 

(Career Offenders) and §4B1.4 (Armed Career Criminals) re-entering the 

community in calendar years 2004 and 2006 (in addition to those already 

included in the 2005 cohort). The second group included additional citizen 

offenders whose guideline calculations placed them in Zones B or C of the 

Sentencing Table.2 In addition to those offenders in Zones B and C who 

reentered during the 2005 study period, these additional offenders expanded 

the reentry period to include those reentering the community from May 1, 2003 

(beginning of the PROTECT Act period)3 through calendar year 2006. The 

purpose of expanding the initial study group in this way was to increase the 

number of offenders eligible for probation or a shorter incarcerative sentence.

Processing the Criminal Records

Following a practice pioneered by the U.S. Department of Justice’s 

Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS),4 the Commission entered into a data sharing 

agreement with the FBI’s CJIS Division and the Administrative Office of the 

United States Courts to provide the Commission with electronic access to 

criminal history records through the CJIS’s Interstate Identification Index (III) 

using secure data exchange, which protected these confidential records from 

inadvertent disclosure. The CJIS’s III allows authorized agencies to determine 

whether any federal or state repository has criminal history records on an 

individual. When an offender’s records were found, each central criminal 

records repository, responding to III requests over the NLETS network, 

provided the records via the Administrative Office’s Access to Law Enforcement 

System (ATLAS) secure interface to the Commission. As a result, offender 

criminal history records were collected from all state and federal agencies in 

which those records resided.

The ATLAS system returns the literal text in the RAP sheets in the 

format in which the original records appear: dates of criminal justice system 

actions (e.g., arrests); offense categories which indicate the charges in the 

terminology used by that agency (e.g., text strings or numeric categories); 

subsequent action tied to arrest charges (e.g., charges filed by prosecutors, 

court findings of guilt, etc.); and sentencing and corrections information. All of 

these records are subject to availability from the originating source. 

Appendix B
The ATLAS system also “parses” records from RAP sheets received 

from all the states, the District of Columbia, and federal agencies. Parsing 

records involves organizing key data elements into logical components: sorting 

into separate criminal justice system stages (arrest, court, and correctional 

events); organizing all records by date; and linking related elements (such as 

court action taken in response to an arrest) into a single cycle. Key data 

elements include offender identifiers, dates of key actions (such as arrests and 

convictions), the criminal charges, and outcomes such as convictions and 

sentencing information. The parsing process collates the multi-state records 

into a uniform structure, regardless of the state, and produces a database for all 

individuals with a valid FBI number who were found in one or more 

repositories across the country. 

The initial extraction process began in September 2014 and was 

completed in April 2015. Commission staff examined the raw RAP sheet 

information and compared it to the parsed records, looking for missing or 

erroneous translation of information from its raw form to the parsed record. 

This step is important because criminal history record repositories are 

continually updating and improving their information systems in ways that 

change the location or format of key text strings, making software written for an 

earlier computer platform obsolete for purposes of accurately parsing the data 

in its intended format and detail. Commission staff worked with ATLAS staff to 

resolve possible issues in about one-half of the repositories, and as a result 

records for several state repositories had to be reprocessed after changes to the 

parsing procedures. In April 2015, this process was complete.

Standardizing the Criminal Records

Following the collection of the RAP sheet records on study group 

offenders, the Commission contracted with NORC to consolidate all records on 

each offender, organize the records chronologically, and remove duplicative or 

extraneous material.5 Minor traffic offenses (e.g., speeding) were removed, but 

serious traffic-related offenses (e.g., driving while intoxicated) were not 

removed from the analysis. Following these preliminary process steps, NORC 

researched state and federal criminal codes and repository data definitions to 

assign each unique state offense and disposition description to a single uniform 

description. This step was needed because criminal records repositories are 

primarily designed to store their records in ways that accurately reflect the 

requirements of each state or federal repository, such as the criminal code for 

that jurisdiction. As a result, any two repositories are likely to use many unique 

text strings to indicate the nature of the criminal charges and actions taken in 

response to those charges. Each jurisdiction’s information was standardized by 

NORC for national-level analysis that reflected common definitions.

Using research on each repository, NORC created separate offense 

“crosswalks” for every state and the District of Columbia, as well as a separate 

crosswalk for federal repository records. These crosswalks translate any given 

jurisdiction’s arrest and court records into standardized arrest and court codes. 

Through this standardization, all records, regardless of originating source, were 

brought into a common framework.

Within each arrest and court cycle, arrest and disposition of charges 

were categorized using standardized coding which generally follows the BJS 

model.6 A charge severity index was created which incorporates both criminal 

law classification (e.g., felony or misdemeanor) and offense severity. Offense 

severity was first separated into four broad categories (violent, property, drug, 

and public order), and then into 16 major arrest charge codes7 and 98 detailed 

arrest charge codes used by BJS.8 The charge severity index ranks murder of a 

public officer as the most serious charge, followed by 26 other detailed violent 

charge codes. These detailed violent charge codes are followed in order of 

severity by five drug trafficking, 16 property, 10 other drug, and 40 public order 

detailed charge codes. Additionally, court events are coded for charge 

disposition. After ordering, each charge is assigned a sequence number, and the 

top three for each event are retained.

Finally, by assembling all federal and state records, the database 

provides a complete criminal record for all individuals for which valid records 

could be found, across any jurisdiction maintaining data on that individual. 

After the receipt of data from NORC, the Commission again reviewed all records 

for completeness and questionable entries. From the 36,007 offender records 

initially processed through ATLAS, 1,812 records were eliminated for reasons 

including apparent death during the study period, missing criminal history 

records, and missing or suspect information as to United States citizenship. 

Additionally, 4,013 offenders were released from BOP on detainer, which 

ordinarily indicates transfer of custody to state court or transfer to a state 

correctional facility following completion of their federal sentence. These 

detained offenders were not released into the community during the study 

period, and their whereabouts are not recorded in the data; therefore, they 

were also withheld from the study. Over thirty thousand (30,182) usable 

records remained for analysis.

Appendix B
1 Of the 262,284 arrest records processed for 2005 releases, these records were almost entirely U.S. state and federal records. However, also included are 345 (0.1%) territorial 

(non-federal) arrests provided by U.S. territories, primarily by Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

2 The guidelines sentencing table provides sentencing ranges based on an offender’s offense level and Criminal History Category. See USSG, Ch.5 Pt.A. The offense level is 

calculated using offense specific aggravating and mitigating factors prescribed by the guidelines. See USSG §1B1.1(a)(1)-(5). The Criminal History Category is based on the 

recency and severity of an offender’s prior sentences and supervision status. See USSG §4A1.1. The sentencing range is determined by “[t]he intersection of the Offense Level 

and Criminal History Category” on the sentencing table. USSG, Ch.5 Pt.A, comment. (n.1). The sentencing table is subdivided into four zones (A, B, C, and D) that determine 

confinement options for each sentencing range. Zone B authorizes probation with condition of community confinement (e.g., home detention) and Zone C authorizes a “split” 

sentence of imprisonment and community confinement. USSG §§5B1.1(a)(2), 5C1.1(d)(2).

3

 In 2003, Congress enacted the Prosecutorial Remedies and Other Tools to end the Exploitation of Children Today Act (“the PROTECT Act”), Pub. L. No. 108-21 (2003), which 

restricted the use of departures by sentencing courts and changed the appellate standard of review for cases in which departures were imposed. The PROTECT Act restricted the 

availability of departures. The PROTECT Act period began May 1, 2003.

4

 See MATTHEW DUROSE, ALEXIA COOPER & HOWARD SNYDER, BUREAU OF JUSTICE STATISTICS, RECIDIVISM OF PRISONERS RELEASED IN 30 STATES IN 2005: PATTERNS FROM

2005 TO 2010 (2014) (hereinafter PRISONERS RELEASED IN 30 STATES IN 2005), http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/rprts05p0510.pdf. 

5

 Instances of arrest or sentencing that appeared to be duplicates of existing events were removed by NORC. Certain administrative records were removed after review of each 

state’s procedures demonstrated that some entries were likely to be either reports of non-offending contact with law enforcement (e.g., registration as a sex offender) or other 

information that pertained to the offender but was not a criminal justice event. Some states included historical data within cycles which caused issues with correct parsing of 

criminal history information; in these cases, the first court disposition for that cycle was retained and all others removed. Arrest entries that occurred outside of the eight-year 

follow-up period were removed from the datafiles and were not used to ascertain recidivism.

6

 See PRISONERS RELEASED IN 30 STATES IN 2005, supra note 4, at 22. 

7

 The major arrest charge codes, as ranked by the Commission beginning with the most serious, were homicide, rape or sexual assault, robbery, assault, other violent offense, drug 

trafficking, burglary, larceny, motor vehicle theft, fraud, other property offense, drug possession, other drug offense, weapons offense (e.g., unlawful sale, etc.), driving under the 

influence, and other public order offense. 

8

 However, unlike the BJS major and detailed charge code rankings, the Commission chose to rank drug trafficking offenses immediately behind violent offenses in order of 

severity.

Appendix B