CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 10­1

10.2 OVERVIEW OF EQUIPMENT CLASSES AND MARKET SHARE ........................... 10­2

10.3 SHIPMENTS MODEL EQUATIONS ............................................................................. 10­3

10.3.1 Mathematical Formulation of the Shipments Model ......................................... 10­4

10.3.2 Stock Events....................................................................................................... 10­4

10.4 DATA INPUTS ................................................................................................................ 10­6

10.4.1 Historical Shipments.......................................................................................... 10­6

10.4.2 Historical Shipped Units.................................................................................... 10­6

10.4.3 Hotel/Motel, Health Care, and Small Office Space and Market Saturation ...... 10­7

10.5 RESULTS ....................................................................................................................... 10­11

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Market Segments for the U.S. PTAC and PTHP Market in the Year 2000....... 10­3

Table 10.4.1 Historical Shipments (Units Shipped) of PTAC and PTHP Equipment by

Cooling Capacity and Year................................................................................ 10­7

Table 10.4.2 Baseline Square Footage of New Construction Forecasts by Census

Division and Building Type for PTACs and PTHPS (Millions of Square

Feet) ................................................................................................................... 10­8

Table 10.4.3 Historical Percentage of Shipped Units by Equipment class for PTAC and

PTHP Equipment (2005).................................................................................... 10­9

Table 10.4.4 Estimated Replacement Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP

Equipment in the Year 2000 ............................................................................ 10­10

Table 10.4.5 Estimated New Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP Equipment in the

Year 2000......................................................................................................... 10­10

Table 10.4.6 Estimated Stock of PTAC and PTHP Units and Replacement Sales in the

Year 2000......................................................................................................... 10­11

Table 10.5.1 Forecasted Shipments for PTAC and PTHP Equipment, Base Case for

Selected Years.................................................................................................. 10­11

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.1.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments ModelError! Bookmark not defined.

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CHAPTER 10. SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

Shipments estimates for packaged terminal air conditioners (PTACs) and packaged

terminal heat pumps (PTHPs) are a necessary input to the national energy savings (NES) and net

present value (NPV) calculations and the manufacturer impacts analysis (MIA). This chapter

describes the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s methodology for projecting annual shipments

and presents results.

The shipments model is a description of PTAC and PTHP equipment stock flows as a

function of year and age. No coupling is assumed between equipment categories, so the

equations describe each type of equipment independently. In other words, DOE has not found

evidence of equipment switching between equipment classes for PTACs and PTHPs.

The shipments model results are driven primarily by historical shipments data for each of

four equipment classes of PTACs and PTHPs under consideration. The flow chart presented in

Figure 10.1.1 outlines the structure of the shipments model. The shipments model is in a

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet format that is accessible on the Internet at:

http://www.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/packaged_ac_hp.html.

NEMS Bldg

Construction Forecast

ARI Estimate of

Shipments (2005)

Initial Replacement

Shipments

Initial Shipments to New

Construction

Initial Equipment Stock

Estimated Lifetime

of Equipment Stock

Shipments to New

Construction

Replacement

Shipments

Total

Shipments By

Equipment

Class and

Capacity

% Shipments by

Equipment Class and

Capacity (2005)

Equipment

Stock by

Equipment

NEMS Bldg

Construction Forecast

ARI Estimate of

Shipments (2005)

Initial Replacement

Shipments

Initial Shipments to New

Construction

Initial Equipment Stock

Estimated Lifetime

of Equipment Stock

Shipments to New

Construction

Replacement

Shipments

Total

Shipments By

Equipment

Class and

Capacity

% Shipments by

Equipment Class and

Capacity (2005)

Equipment

Stock by

Equipment

Class andClass and

CapacityCapacity

Figure 10.1.1 Flow Chart Showing Inputs to the Shipments Model

DOE developed shipments forecasts by accounting for: (1) the growth in the building

stock of hotel/motel, health care and office buildings that are the primary end users of PTACs

and PTHPs; (2) market segments; (3) equipment retirements; and (4) equipment ages.

The shipments model assumes that, in each year, each existing PTAC or PTHP either

ages by one year or breaks down, and that equipment that breaks down is replaced. In addition,

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
new equipment can be shipped into new commercial building floor space, and old equipment can

be removed through demolitions. Historical shipments are critical to the development of the

shipments model, since DOE used the historical data to calibrate the model. DOE’s primary

source of historical data for shipments of PTACs and PTHPs was the shipment data provided by

the Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI). ARI provided DOE with shipments data

for 10 years (1997­2006), which allowed DOE to allocate sales of equipment to the different

equipment classes.

Initial stocks of equipment by equipment classes are calculated from industry­supplied

data on replacements and new shipments and assumed equipment lifetimes based on industry1 supplied data in a report by Ducker Worldwide . Because the non­standard size units are sold

only for replacements of existing units, all shipments to new construction are standard size units.

The forecast of shipments to new construction is driven by a forecast of new construction of

lodging and small office space from the Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s National

Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The sales to new construction are added by vintage to the

existing stock, and as each vintage slowly retires, it is replaced, generating a demand for

replacement shipments. The existing equipment stock, both standard and non­standard, retires

slowly, and beginning in 2013, is assumed not to be fully replaced as the stock of buildings using

this equipment slowly leaves the inventory. Each year, each of the three components of stock is

updated with retirements, replacements, and new additions.

Further, Chapter 11, national impact analysis of this Technical Support Document (TSD),

discusses how to access the shipments model spreadsheet and other related spreadsheets, and

appendix F provides basic instructions for using them. The rest of this chapter explains the

shipments model in more detail. Section 10.3 presents the mathematical formulation of the

model, section 10.4 describes the data inputs to the model, and section 10.5 presents the results

for different amended energy­conservation standard level scenarios.

The amended energy conservation standards for PTACs and PTHPs will set the minimum

equipment efficiency in terms of energy efficiency ratio (EER) and coefficient of performance

(COP) for all equipment within an equipment class. DOE conducted shipments forecasts for all

of the trial standard levels (TSLs) for which NES and NPV are required. DOE is considering

seven TSLs for each of the six equipment classes analyzed. Refer to chapter 9 of the TSD for

detail discussion on TSL selection.

10.2 OVERVIEW OF EQUIPMENT CLASSES AND MARKET SHARE

DOE defined four equipment categories for PTACs and PTHPs: 1) standard size PTACs,

2) standard size PTHPs, 3) non­standard size PTACs, 4) and non­standard size PTHPs. Standard

size equipment has wall sleeve dimensions greater than or equal to16 inches high, or greater than

or equal to 42 inches wide. Non­standard size equipment has wall sleeve dimensions less than

16 inches high and less than 42 inches wide. The standard size PTAC and PTHP equipment

classes are further divided into two categories each: large­capacity (i.e., cooling capacity greater

than or equal to 10,000 Btu/h) and small­capacity (i.e., cooling capacity less than 10,000 Btu/h).

Each category is characterized by a representative unit at 12,000 Btu/h and 9,000 Btu/h,

respectively. This results in a total of six representative units to be analyzed. See Chapter 3 of

the TSD for details.

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
Ducker Worldwide divides PTAC and PTHP equipment into several market segments.

Table 10.2.1 gives the approximate size of these market segments for the year 2000.

Table 10.2.1 Market Segments for the U.S. PTAC and PTHP Market in the Year 2000

Standard Size Units Non­Standard Size Units

New Installations 98,000 0

Replacementa 390,000 44,000

Total 488,000 44,000

Source: Ducker Worldwide (2001)

Market data in Table 10.2.1 indicates that standard size units comprise about 92 percent

of the total market, with non­standard size units sharing the remaining 8 percent of the total

market. Furthermore, about 80 percent of standard size units are used for the replacement

b market and 20 percent for the new construction installation. Non­standard units are

manufactured and sold to replace existing units that were installed at sleeve sizes different from

the common industry standard sleeve dimension (i.e., 42 inches wide and 16 inches high)

adopted in 1985.

Overall sales of PTAC and PTHP equipment were growing at the rate of about

6.6 percent per year for standard size units and at almost 11.1 percent for non­standard size units

1 during the first few years after 2000. Future non­standard size unit sales growth is limited by the

number of units installed before 1985, so rapid growth in annual replacements of non­standard

size units should eventually decline to near zero as the pre­1985 built buildings are renovated or

demolished. Future replacement sales of standard size units are limited by the total existing

number installed and their age distribution.

10.3 SHIPMENTS MODEL EQUATIONS

This section begins with a definition of the different PTAC and PTHP equipment stock

categories. DOE formulated the equations as updates of the distribution of stock in year (t) as a

function of age (a) to year (t+1). Then DOE presented the different purchase decisions and, in

the following section, provided a description of the data sources. DOE used a calculation of

existing stock and the average age of the equipment as a basis for calculating replacement sales.

Then, DOE subtracted replacement sales from historical total sales statistics to calculate the new

sales of PTAC and PTHP equipment. DOE forecasted new sales as a function of new

construction of hotel/motel, health care and office space. Sales of new and replacement

equipment are recorded by the year sold, and each annual vintage is depreciated over the

a Standard size units are sometimes used to retrofit buildings that did not originally have standard size units. DOE

believes that this is a relatively rare occurrence, and assumes that changing PTAC sleeve sizes generally does not

happen. Thus, replacements are assumed to be the same size as the equipment they replace.

b In the context of this rulemaking analysis, “replacement” units are those used to replace an existing unit that has

worn out or failed. Most of the units in the replacement market are standard sleeve size units. Ducker refers to nonstandard size units as “specialty” units because of their relatively narrow market application, and ASHRAE refers to

them as “replacement” units, in part because they are sold only as replacements in legacy applications where the

original unit had a non­standard sleeve size. In this analysis these are described as “non­standard” units.

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
estimated equipment life. Sales in each year are allocated to the four equipment classes and

representative units in proportion to their relative historical sales.

10.3.1 Mathematical Formulation of the Shipments Model

DOE uses two PTAC and PTHP equipment stock categories. The category U0(t,a) is the

stock of existing units. Available information suggests that all units have had normal repairs that

do not affect the lifetime of the equipment.

PTAC and PTHP equipment lifetime can range from 1 to as many as 20 years. Based on

discussions with industry experts and available literature reviews, DOE used a typical equipment

life of 10 years for this analysis (see chapter 8 for further details). Also, available information

suggests that the initial existing stock of equipment is assumed to have an average age of five

years, based on the ten­year lifetime of a unit of equipment, and annual replacements going back

10 years. The total stock of age a in a given year t is represented by

U(t,a) = U0 (t,a) Eq. 10.1

and the average age of the stock in year t is defined as

StockAge(t) = ∑aU(t, a) x a / ∑(U( t,a)) Eq. 10.2

where:

U(t,a) = total stock of age a in a given year t

U0 (t,a) = stock of existing units

StockAge(t) = average age of stock in year t

a = age of stock in years

t = year.

The shipments of new stock in a given year are Uship(t). By definition, the age of the

equipment is zero in the year that it is shipped, so that Uship(t) = U(t,0).

10.3.2 Stock Events

In the transition from year t to year t+1, two things could happen to the stock of PTAC

and PTHP equipment:

• existing equipment could break or be removed during a building renovation and be

replaced, or

• the stock could simply age by one year.

In the model, early replacements (i.e., existing equipment that is replaced before the end

of its useful life) are not considered, and all broken equipment are assumed to be replaced. The

following sections present the equations used to represent each possible event.

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
10.3.2.1 Replacing Equipment

DOE determined the probability that units of PTAC and PTHP equipment of average age

a from initial stock U0 will break or will be replaced using a known function PB0(a)=0.07, based

on a Weibull statistical distribution of retirements with a 10­year average life and maximum life

of 20 years. Similarly, the probability that equipment of age a from stock U1 will break is given

by a Weibull function PB1(a), with scale parameter of 10.2 and shape parameter of 2, truncated

at 20 years. These probabilities do not depend on the model year t. DOE defines the quantities

of replaced equipment as

UB(t, a) = PB0(a) x UB0(t,a) Eq. 10.3

where:

UB0(t,a) = stock of existing units

PB0(a) = probability that stock of existing units will break, or will be replaced

U0(t,a) = stock of existing units

a = average age of stock in years

t = year.

All broken units (or units removed during store renovations) are assumed to be replaced.

10.3.2.2 New Equipment

New PTAC and PTHP equipment will be purchased to replace the units described above.

In addition, new PTAC and PTHP equipment will be purchased to install in newly constructed

buildings. Available information suggests that the purchase of new PTAC and PTHP equipment

that would go into new buildings is driven by the rate of construction of hotels/motels, health

care facilities, and office floor space.

By definition:

EFS (t+1) = EFS(t) + NFS (t) – DFS(t) Eq. 10.4

where:

EFS(t) = the square footage of existing hotel/motel, health care, and office floor space in

year t

NFS(t) = the square footage of new hotel/motel, health care, and office floor space added

in year t (described in section 10.4.3)

DFS(t) = the square footage of existing hotel/motel, health care and office floor space

demolished in year t (described in section 10.4.3).

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
The number of PTAC and PTHP units going into new buildings is

UN(t) = UN(0) x A0 x NFS(t)/ NFS(0) Eq. 10.5

where:

UN(t) = the number of units going into new buildings in year t

A0 = an overall scale factor which accounts for the number of units covered by the

standard which are not used in all commercial building types. The default value

for A0 is 1.0, and values of 0.5 and 1.5 are used for sensitivity testing.

DOE has no information on the variation in the market saturation of PTAC and PTHP

equipment by building type or over time. Therefore, in the model, the purchase of new

equipment is driven by the construction of new floor space, and broken or removed equipment is

replaced on a one­for­one basis.

10.4 DATA INPUTS

10.4.1 Historical Shipments

Historical shipments are necessary to calibrate the shipments model to the existing

market. DOE’s primary source of historical data for shipments of PTAC and PTHP equipment

2

was the shipment data provided by the Air­Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI).

ARI’s shipment data was broken out by specific PTAC and PTHP equipment class for 10 years

(1997­2006), which allowed DOE to allocate sales of equipment to equipment classes. In

addition, DOE used the Ducker Worldwide market study primarily to supplement the ARI

shipment data.

Within each of the equipment classes, the shipments data are disaggregated into detailed

equipment and capacity ranges using the ARI shipment data. The Ducker Worldwide shipment

data are defined in a way that allowed DOE to disaggregate the ARI shipment ranges and

equipment categories into the equipment classes identified for this rulemaking.

10.4.2 Historical Shipped Units

Historical shipments data provide by ARI depict the annual amount of PTAC and PTHP

equipment capacity introduced into the marketplace. DOE converted shipped units to percent of

shipped units for use in the shipments model, to establish the PTAC and PTHP equipment

market share attributed to each equipment class. The market share calculation and its use in

forecasting shipments are explained in section 10.4.3.2. DOE used the Ducker Worldwide and

ARI shipment data to derive shipped units in each equipment class.

Table 10.4.1 presents the historical shipments of all PTAC and PTHP equipment by

cooling capacity ranges and the year of shipment.

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
Table 10.4.1 Historical Shipments (Units Shipped) of PTAC and PTHP Equipment by

Cooling Capacity and Year

Cooling

Capacity

(Thousand

Btu/h)

Year of Shipment*

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006**

PTAC

7.0 &

Under 17,100 17,965 17,134 14,633 15,655 14,278 13,019 18,780 19,359 22,861

7.1–10.0 89,064 93,250 89,492 74,767 71,111 68,193 72,877 81,906 91,989 104,234

10.1–13.0 95,065 97,233 92,039 86,002 83,268 86,516 88,076 100,123 112,853 121,682

13.1–16.0 40,309 44,532 45,057 43,834 42,077 46,332 46,271 47,630 52,350 55,902

16.1 &

Over 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ­

Subtotal 241,538 252,980 243,722 219,236 212,111 215,319 220,243 248,439 276,551 304,680

7.0 &

Under 11,898 15,763 15,116 10,935 10,345 9,374 9,994 10,656 14,455 15,900

7.1–10.0 78,666 89,556 78,953 66,826 65,214 63,446 63,827 71,756 73,287 89,742

PTHP 10.1–13.0 67,451 74,600 73,764 66,680 63,236 62,844 65,146 70,559 74,973 81,316

13.1–16.0 34,004 37,692 41,682 38,465 36,923 38,181 39,570 44,229 44,459 48,313

16.1 &

Over 0 0 0 2 0 0 77 0 153 ­

Subtotals 192,019 217,611 209,515 182,908 175,718 173,845 178,614 197,200 207,327 235,271

Total (ARI) 433,557 470,591 453,237 402,144 387,829 389,164 398,857 445,639 483,878 539,951

* Source: ARI.

** For the year 2006, ARI reported shipments through October. The table values have been adjusted to a 12­month

basis.

10.4.3 Hotel/Motel, Health Care, and Small Office Space and Market Saturation

The amount of commercial building floor space is the main driver for PTAC and PTHP

equipment shipments and is one of the basic inputs into the shipments model. As discussed in

section 10.3.2, the model divides commercial building floor space into two components: new

construction floor space (NFS) and existing building floor space (EFS).

For this analysis, commercial square footage with PTAC and PTHP equipment refers to

both new and existing stock of commercial buildings.

10.4.3.1 New Construction Floor Space

DOE took the projected floor space construction after the year 2003 from the National

Energy Modeling System (NEMS) projection published in the Annual Energy Outlook 2006

3 (AEO 2006). AEO 2006 lists the projections for years 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030

(see Table 10.4.2). For unlisted years in this range, DOE derived NFS data by linear

interpolation of the existing years. Beyond 2030, DOE extrapolated NFS from the 10­year trend

of NEMS projected data between 2020 and 2030.

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
Table 10.4.2 Baseline Square Footage of New Construction Forecasts by Census Division

and Building Type for PTACs and PTHPS (Millions of Square Feet)

Census Building Year of Construction

Division Type 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

New Hotel/Motel 5.686 4.786 5.406 5.78 6.657 7.523 8.459

England Health Care 2.284 2.544 2.573 2.884 3.235 3.694 3.87

Small Office 6.318 5.904 6.184 6.342 6.771 7.221 7.577

Subtotal 14.288 13.234 14.163 15.006 16.663 18.438 19.906

Mid Atlantic Hotel/Motel 8.644 4.791 7.863 7.527 8.353 8.465 9.204

Health Care 7.53 8.004 8.629 8.772 9.241 9.778 10.477

Small Office 6.334 5.586 6.707 6.651 7.046 7.445 7.868

Subtotal 22.508 18.381 23.199 22.95 24.64 25.688 27.549

East North Hotel/Motel 26.82 17.735 20.825 20.998 22.102 23.179 24.311

Central Health Care 12.837 11.666 11.175 11.327 11.558 11.989 12.436

Small Office 18.522 14.012 15.73 15.782 16.552 17.321 18.089

Subtotal 58.179 43.413 47.73 48.107 50.212 52.489 54.836

West North Hotel/Motel 7.176 5.468 6.211 6.304 7.052 7.067 7.64

Central Health Care 6.543 5.75 4.644 4.643 4.593 4.549 4.524

Small Office 16.862 11.707 11.923 12.21 12.69 13.169 13.832

Subtotal 30.581 22.925 22.778 23.157 24.335 24.785 25.996

South Hotel/Motel 35.609 27.419 30.433 30.873 33.697 36.627 39.405

Atlantic Health Care 13.384 12.648 14.475 15.285 16.217 17.42 18.681

Small Office 42.845 33.049 43.219 43.512 49.576 54.867 61.301

Subtotal 91.838 73.116 88.127 89.67 99.49 108.914 119.387

East South Hotel/Motel 18.175 7.675 17.741 17.641 17.455 22.443 23.859

Central Health Care 3.082 3.223 3.323 3.516 3.718 3.914 4.113

Small Office 10.75 9.519 8.013 8.103 9.605 10.602 11.172

Subtotal 32.007 20.417 29.077 29.26 30.778 36.959 39.144

West South Hotel/Motel 12.821 8.137 9.061 8.598 9.479 11.024 11.993

Central Health Care 8.724 8.813 9.606 10.493 11.961 13.416 15.39

Small Office 22.937 12.299 13.002 13.042 13.363 13.813 14.648

Subtotal 44.482 29.249 31.669 32.133 34.803 38.253 42.031

Mountain Hotel/Motel 31.253 29.133 32.009 33.624 42.31 48.969 56.581

Health Care 5.647 5.254 5.009 5.532 6.342 7.168 8.051

Small Office 22.238 11.153 11.807 13.143 14.752 16.396 17.898

Subtotal 59.138 45.54 48.825 52.299 63.404 72.533 82.53

Pacific Hotel/Motel 26.281 23.766 26.902 30.318 32.935 36.016 39.596

Health Care 7.769 8.916 6.068 8.962 8.211 9.554 9.856

Small Office 32.307 17.925 18.008 19.133 19.378 20.677 21.327

Subtotal 66.357 50.607 50.978 58.413 60.524 66.247 70.779

Total Hotel/Motel 172.465 128.91 156.451 161.663 180.04 201.313 221.048

Health Care 67.8 66.818 65.502 71.414 75.076 81.482 87.398

Small Office 179.113 121.154 134.593 137.918 149.733 161.511 173.712

Grand Total 419.378 316.882 356.546 370.995 404.849 444.306 482.158

New

Construction

Index (2005

= 1.000

1.323 1.000 1.125 1.171 1.278 1.402 1.522

Source: AEO 2006.3

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
The total of new space conditioning capacity is the estimated total shipments in units for

2006, multiplied by an index of new construction of square feet of the relevant commercial

building space for each future year, divided by its 2006 value. The average rate of change in the

construction index between 2020 and 2030 (i.e., 1.7 percent) is used to project forward after

2030 until 2042, the last year in which PTAC and PTHP units are added. All existing PTACs

and PTHPs are presumed to be replaced by a unit of the same equipment class and capacity (but

not necessarily the same efficiency, since improved efficiency is possible during replacement) if

it fails or is removed during a renovation. If the building is removed, the PTAC or PTHP is not

replaced.

10.4.3.2 Market Shipments

DOE used the above shipments data to estimate the market shipments in year t of each

PTAC and PTHP equipment class y, MKTSHIP(t,y), defined in terms of units shipped for both

new and replacement markets. DOE assumed that the percent of shipments in each equipment

class is constant over time and the lifetime of each equipment class is the same (10 years), so the

ratio of shipments to a class is indicative of the market share for that class, MKT(y). DOE

estimated the MKT(y) for a particular equipment class to be a constant value equal to the average

of the yearly percent historical shipments to that class. These percentages are reported in

Table 10.4.3.

MKTSHIP(t,y) = MKT(y) x (UN(t) + UB(t)) Eq. 10.6

where:

MKTSHIP(t,y) = total market shipments of equipment class y in year t,

MKT(y) = percentage of total market shipments of equipment class y,

UN(t) = total shipments to new buildings in year t,

UB(t) = total replacement shipments in year t.

Table 10.4.3 Historical Percentage of Shipped Units by Equipment class for PTAC and

PTHP Equipment (2005)

Representative Equipment

and Cooling Capacity Description Percentage of

Shipped Units

Standard Size PTAC

9,000 Btu/h

Includes all standard size PTAC units with cooling capacities

less than 10,000 Btu/h 19.7%

Standard Size PTAC

12,000 Btu/h

Includes all standard size PTAC units with cooling capacities

greater than or equal to 10,000 Btu/h 29.0% 

Standard Size PTHP

9,000 Btu/h

Includes all standard size PTHP units with cooling capacities less

than 10,000 Btu/h 15.4% 

Standard Size PTHP

12,000 Btu/h

Includes all standard size PTHP units with cooling capacities

greater than or equal to 10,000 Btu/h 21.0% 

Non­Standard Size PTAC

11,000 Btu/h

Includes all cooling capacities of non­standard­size PTAC units 8.5%

Non­Standard Size PTHP

11,000 Btu/h

Includes all cooling capacities of non­standard­size PTHP units 6.4%

Total 100%

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
Sources: ARI and Ducker Worldwide, Inc. and 2000 Screening Analysis comments. c

DOE estimated total sales by adding replacement sales to new sales in each year. Taking

the year 2000 as a baseline year and noting that 80 percent of the year 2000 market for standard

size PTAC and PTHP equipment was for replacement of existing units, DOE estimated the total

1 number of units for each equipment class that were replacing equipment. DOE assumed that

new units last an average of 10 years and that the average age of the existing stock is 5 years

(half of an average lifetime). DOE set up an inventory accounting scheme to keep track of

required replacements through the life of the buildings and the aging of new units as they are

added to the inventory each year.

Ducker provides breakdowns of sales of standard size PTAC and PTHP equipment for

1 the year 2000 by cooling capacity. Derived from the ARI shipment data for the year 2000 and

the Ducker report, Table 10.4.4 shows the number of sales by cooling capacity and type of

standard size PTAC unit in 2000. Subtracting out hydronic units, a niche market whose sales are

assumed to be replacement sales and constant over time, these adjusted percentages (shown in

Table 10.4.5) are applied to total sales of new units.

Table 10.4.4 Estimated Replacement Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP Equipment

in the Year 2000

Type of Unit

Equipment Capacity

7,000 Btu/h 9,000 Btu/h 12,000 Btu/h 15,000 Btu/h Total Sales

PTAC 11,575 59,141 68,028 34,673 173,416

PTHP 8,748 53,461 53,344 30,774 146,326

Hydronic 132 673 774 395 1,973

Total 19,497 107,425 116,309 62,474 305,705

Source: ARI data, adjusted by percentages reported by Ducker 2000.

Table 10.4.5 Estimated New Sales of Standard Size PTAC and PTHP Equipment in the

Year 2000

Type of Unit

Equipment Capacity

7,000 Btu/h 9,000 Btu/h 12,000 Btu/h 15,000 Btu/h Total

PTAC 2,133 10,128 10,756 4,735 27,752

PTHP 2,033 12,230 15,427 8,965 38,655

Total 4,166 22,358 26,182 13,700 66,407

Source: ARI data, adjusted by percentages reported by Ducker 2000.

A Weibull distribution with an average age of 10 years for the stock of PTAC and PTHP

equipment would retire approximately eight percent of the PTAC and PTHP equipment stock

annually. That is, replacement sales would equal about eight percent of the existing stock. This

means that the 305,705 replacements of standard size units in the year 2000 (Table 10.4.4)

corresponds to about 3.82 million total existing standard size units (Table 10.4.6) in the market.

In addition, there are 44,000 non­standard size units shown in Table 10.2.1 that are being used to

1 replace stock that was estimated to be 15 to 25 years old in the year 2000. In this case, the

hotels/motels and other businesses are likely replacing more than one year’s equipment failures

as part of property refurbishment and upgrade. This assumption is supported by the fact that the

Refer to DOE’s Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Screening Analysis for EPACT­Covered

Commercial HVAC and Water­Heating Equipment Screening Analysis. April, 2000.

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
rapid growth in non­standard size unit replacement sales (11.1 percent per year) began in about

1997, when the stock would have been 12 to 22 years old. At that time, annual equipment

failures would have average 3.3 percent per year and are known to have been about 30,000 units

per year. If the 1997 sales was replacement of failures only, then the total number of units in the

stock would have been about 900,000. If 3.3 percent is used as the average failure rate, then the

stock of non­standard units would have been 900,000 units (Table 10.4.6). With 3 years of

catch­up, by the year 2000, an extra 25,000 units would have been purchased (14,000 in the year

2000 since Ducker estimates a total of 44,000 non­standard size sales in that year), which would

have made the non­standard size stock average age younger by about one year compared with

1997, but would not have increased the size of the stock. Table 10.4.6 provides the resulting

stock estimates and replacement sales for the year 2000.

Table 10.4.6 Estimated Stock of PTAC and PTHP Units and Replacement Sales in the

Year 2000

Stock (Units) Annual Replacement Sales (Units)

Standard Size Units 3,821,300 305,700

Non­standard Size Units 900,000 30,000

Non­standard Size Units N/A 14,000 (Catch­up sales)

Total 4,721,300 349,700

10.5 RESULTS

Table 10.5.1 shows the forecasted shipments for PTAC and PTHP equipment classes for

the base case efficiency level as listed in ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1­1999 for selected

years from 2012 to 2042. As equipment purchase price increases with efficiency, a drop in

shipments is expected. Although there is a provision in the shipments analysis spreadsheet for a

change in shipments as the trial standard level increases (and the equipment becomes more

expensive), DOE had no information with which to calibrate such a relationship. Therefore, for

the NOPR analysis, DOE assumed that total shipments do not change with trial standard levels.

Table 10.5.1 also shows the cumulative shipments for PTAC and PTHP equipment from 2012 to

2042.

Table 10.5.1 Forecasted Shipments for PTAC and PTHP Equipment, Base Case for

Selected Years

Equipment

Thousands of Units Shipped by Year and Equipment Class

2012 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2042

Cumulative

Shipments

(2012­2042)

Standard Size

PTACs 242 249 266 286 307 333 361 373 9,256

Standard Size

PTHPs 181 186 199 214 230 249 270 279 6,918

Non­Standard

Size PTACs 17 16 15 13 12 11 10 9 398

Non­Standard

Size PTHPs 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 300

Total 453 464 490 522 558 600 648 668 16,873

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EERE-2007-BT-STD-0012 COMMENT 02
REFERENCES

1. Ducker Worldwide. 2001. 2000 U.S. Market for Residential and Specialty Air

Conditioning: PTAC (Packaged Terminal Air Conditioning). HVAC0002. Final Report,

March 2001. Ducker Industrial Standards, 6905 Telegraph Road Suite 300, Bloomfield

Hills, Michigan 48301.

2. Air­Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute, 4100 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 200, Arlington,

Virginia 22203, U.S.A.

3. EIA (Energy Information Administration). 2006. Annual Energy Outlook 2006.

DOE/EIA­0383(2006). U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration,

Washington D.C.

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