June 2014 ncj 245959

U.S. Department of Justice

Office of Justice Programs

Bureau of Justice Statistics

BJS

Special Report

Janet L. Lauritsen, Ph.D., BJS Visiting Fellow, and Nicole White, Ph.D., University of Missouri – St. Louis

Seasonal Patterns in Criminal 

Victimization Trends

Introduction

Seasonal patterns exist when similar fluctuations in the 

victimization rates tend to recur each year during the same 

season. Seasonal patterns are a long-standing topic in both 

popular and scholarly literatures on crime and show how 

environmental factors, such as temperature changes and 

daylight hours, might be associated with crime throughout 

the year. Seasonal patterns also are examined to learn 

whether routine activity patterns, such as those associated 

with the beginning and end of the school year, are associated 

with variations in crime throughout the year.

This report examines seasonal patterns in violent and 

household property victimization in the United States from 

1993 to 2010. It describes seasonal patterns for household 

property victimization (burglary, motor vehicle theft, and 

household larceny) and types of violence (rape and sexual 

assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault). 

Trends in other forms of violence, including intimate partner 

violence, victimizations involving weapons, and those 

resulting in injury, also are examined to determine the extent 

to which seasonal fluctuations exist. 

For household property crimes, the victimization data 

indicate that there are seasonal patterns in household 

burglary and larceny, with higher rates in the summer and 

lower rates during other seasons of the year. Motor vehicle 

thefts do not exhibit the same seasonal patterns. 

For violent victimizations, seasonal patterns also vary 

depending on the type of crime. Rape and sexual assault 

rates and aggravated assault rates are higher in the summer 

than in most other seasons. In comparison, simple assault 

rates are higher in the fall than in other seasons, and robbery 

victimization rates show no seasonal patterns. Intimate 

partner violence exhibits regular seasonal fluctuations with 

rates highest during the summer and lowest during the 

winter. Rates of violence involving weapons and violence 

resulting in serious injury are higher in the summer than in 

the winter and spring seasons; however, the fall rates are not 

significantly different from the summer rates.

Highlights

 When seasonal variations in household property 

victimization were found, the differences between the 

highest and lowest seasonal rates were less than 11%. 

 Seasonal patterns existed in household larceny and burglary 

victimization rates. Rates of these household crimes tended 

to be higher in the summer than during other seasons of 

the year.

 Though rates of motor vehicle theft tended to be lower 

in the spring than in the summer, there were few regular 

differences between summer, fall, and winter rates.

 When seasonal variations were found for violent 

victimization, the differences between the rates of the 

highest and lowest season were less than 12%.

 Aggravated assault rates were higher during the summer 

than during the winter, spring, and fall. In comparison, 

simple assault rates were higher during the fall than during 

other seasons of the year.

 Robbery rates did not exhibit seasonal variations.

 Rape and sexual assault victimization rates tended to be 

higher during the summer than during the fall and winter.

 Rates of intimate partner violence were higher during the 

summer than during the winter, spring, and fall.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 2

Prior BJS Research on Seasonality

BJS has previously examined seasonal patterns in 

selected types of victimization using monthly data from 

1973 to 1977 from the National Crime Survey (NCS), the 

predecessor of the National Crime Victimization Survey 

(NCVS).1 Earlier research examined some of the same types 

of victimizations assessed in this report. 

The previous report found notable seasonal fluctuations 

in household larceny and burglary, and rates were 

highest during the summer months. Seasonal differences 

were also found for motor vehicle theft and for assault 

victimization. For these crimes, the differences between 

the summer and winter month rates were relatively 

smaller than those found for household burglary and 

larceny. The earlier findings for these types of victimization 

are similar to the patterns shown in this report; however, 

the magnitude of the seasonal differences were somewhat 

larger from 1973 to 1977 than from 1993 to 2010. During 

the earlier period, burglaries were about 26% less frequent 

in the winter than in the summer, while in the more recent 

period, the winter versus summer difference in burglary 

was about 11%. No significant seasonal fluctuations were 

found for robbery in either study. 

1

Crime and Seasonality: National Crime Survey Report, NCJ 64818, 

BJS web, May 1980.

The data in this report were developed from the Bureau 

of Justice Statistics’ (BJS) National Crime Victimization 

Survey (NCVS), which annually collects information on 

nonfatal victimizations against persons age 12 or older 

from a nationally representative sample of U.S. households. 

The data included crimes reported and not reported to the 

police from 1993 to 2010. Asking the victim in which month 

the incident occurred makes it possible to assess how the 

risk for victimization varies throughout the year. For each 

of the crime types, differences in the rates are compared 

across the four seasons of the year. Winter rates are based 

on victimizations that occur in December, January, and 

February; spring rates occur in March, April, and May; 

summer rates occur in June, July, and August; and fall rates 

occur in September, October, and November. Seasonal 

patterns in the 1993 to 2010 trends exist when statistical 

analyses reveal periodic fluctuations in the rates, which tend 

to recur each year during the same season See Methodology

for a description of the statistical analysis used in this report. 

BJS Visiting Fellows 

The BJS Visiting Fellows program is intended to facilitate 

collaboration between academic scholars and government 

researchers in survey methodology, statistics, economics, 

and social sciences. Visiting Fellows have the unique 

opportunity to address substantive, methodological, and 

analytic issues relevant to BJS programs, and to further 

knowledge and understanding of criminal justice systems 

operation. Fellows conduct research at BJS or at their 

home site, use BJS data and facilities, and interact with BJS 

staff. Pending available funding, the program is normally 

conducted each year through a competitive solicitation. 

Applicants are limited to senior-level social science 

researchers or statisticians in the fields of statistics, survey 

methodology, mathematics, criminology, demography, 

economics, behavioral science, and other related fields. 

They must have an established research record in their 

field, have considerable expertise in their area of proposed 

research, and be willing to commit a substantial portion of 

their time (typically 6 to 18 months) to undertake analyses 

of existing BJS data. In addition, they must produce a 

report that both summarizes their analyses and meets 

BJS publication and data quality standards. For further 

information, see http://www.bjs.gov/content/fellows.cfm.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 3

Table 1

Average percent difference in seasonal rate of household 

victimization, by type of crime, 1993–2010

Total property 

crime

Household 

burglary

Motor 

vehicle theft

Household 

larceny

Winter -6.9%* -10.5%* -2.2% -6.4%*

Spring -8.0* -8.8* -5.6* -8.0*

Summer ~ ~ ~ ~

Fall -3.1* -5.9* 0 -2.7*

Note: See appendix table 1 for regression coefficients and standard errors.

*Difference is statistically significant (p < .05, two-tail test). 

~Highest rate season used for percentage comparisons.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 

1993–2010.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 households

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 1

Seasonal rates of household property victimization, 1993–2010

Seasonal patterns in household 

property victimization

Total household property victimization

Rates of total household property victimization include 

burglary, motor vehicle theft, and household larceny. 

Differences in the total household property victimization 

rates across winter, spring, summer, and fall exhibited 

recurrent seasonal patterns (figure 1). In all of the years 

except 1995, rates of household property victimization 

appeared highest in summer and lowest in either winter or 

spring. Statistical analysis of the seasonal rates indicates that 

they were higher in the summer than in the other seasons 

of the year (table 1). Compared to summer rates, household 

property victimization rates were an average of about 

7% lower in winter, 8% lower in spring, and 3% lower in fall. 

Therefore, the difference between rates in the summer and 

other seasons was relatively small. 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 4

0

5

10

15

20

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 households

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 2

Seasonal rates of burglary, 1993–2010

Burglary

Household burglary exhibited seasonal patterns, with rates 

of victimization typically highest in summer and lowest in 

winter or spring (figure 2). In all but 3 years (1999, 2005, 

and 2008), rates of burglary appeared2 highest in summer. 

In some years, spring rates of burglary were lower than 

winter rates. On average, household burglary rates were 

approximately 11% lower in winter, 9% lower in spring, and 

about 6% lower in fall than in summer. Among household 

property crimes, burglary showed the largest average 

difference (11%) between the peak (summer) and trough 

(winter) seasonal rates. 2The term "appeared" refers to within year seasonal variations in point 

estimates that are not statistically different.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 5

0

2

4

6

8

10

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 households

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 3

Seasonal rates of motor vehicle theft, 1993–2010

Motor vehicle theft

Compared to other household property crimes, rates of 

motor vehicle theft showed limited amounts of seasonal 

variation from 1993 to 2010 (figure 3). In approximately 

half of the years, motor vehicle theft appeared highest in the 

summer, while in other years it appeared higher during the 

fall. The lowest rates of motor vehicle theft seemed to be in 

the spring, though this was not always the case. Statistical 

analysis confirmed the lack of seasonality in motor vehicle 

theft and revealed that the differences between summer, fall, 

and winter rates were not statistically significant. However, 

spring rates were significantly lower than summer rates 

of motor vehicle theft, with spring rates on average about 

6% lower than summer rates.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 6

0

20

40

60

80

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 households

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 4

Seasonal rates of household larceny, 1993–2010

Household larceny

Rates of household larceny showed some consistent seasonal 

fluctuations throughout the 1993 to 2010 period (figure 4). 

Household larceny typically appeared highest in the 

summer, though in some years (such as 1994 to 1996), fall 

rates appeared equal to or slightly higher than the summer 

rates. Like burglary, household larceny rates also appeared to 

be lowest in the spring or winter. Statistical analyses revealed 

seasonality in household larceny. Compared to summer 

rates, household larceny rates were about 6% lower in the 

winter, 8% lower in spring, and about 3% lower in fall. 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 7

0

5

10

15

20

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 5

Seasonal rates of total violent victimization, 1993–2010

Table 2

Average percent difference in seasonal rate of violent 

victimization, by type of crime, 1993–2010

Total 

violence

Serious 

violence

Rape/sexual 

assault Robbery

Aggravated 

assault

Simple 

assault

Winter -4.4%* -5.6%* -9.0%* -2.5% -6.9%* -5.6%*

Spring -3.4* -4.7* -6.0 -1.9 -6.0* -4.7*

Summer -1.8 ~ ~ -0.6 ~ -5.0*

Fall ~ -3.2* -10.4* ~ -3.6* ~

Note: See appendix table 2 for regression coefficients and standard errors. 

*Difference is statistically significant (p < .05, two-tail test). 

~Highest rate season used for percentage comparisons.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 

1993–2010.

Seasonal patterns in violent 

victimization

Total violent victimization

Summary indicators and specific types of violence were 

examined to assess the seasonal patterns for violent 

victimization. Total violent victimization includes rape 

and sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple 

assault. Differences in the total violent victimization rates 

across the winter, spring, summer, and fall exhibited some 

recurrent seasonal patterns from 1993 to 2010 (figure 5). 

However, these patterns were different from those observed 

for household property victimization. 

In most years, rates of violence appeared highest in the 

fall and lowest in the winter, though this was not always 

the case. On average, statistical analysis indicated that the 

rates were higher in the fall than in the winter and spring 

and that summer rates were statistically similar to rates of 

violence during the fall (table 2). Though the differences 

between the fall rates of violence and the winter and spring 

rates were statistically significant, the seasonal variations 

were small. On average, rates of violence during the fall were 

about 4% higher than winter rates and about 3% higher than 

spring rates.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 8

0

2

4

6

8

10

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010. 

Figure 6

Seasonal rates of serious violent victimization, 1993–2010

Serious violent victimization

Serious violent victimization rates, which include rape 

and sexual assault, robbery, and aggravated assault, varied 

significantly across the seasons in ways that differed from 

those for total violent victimization (figure 6). Statistical 

analysis of seasonal rates showed that serious violence was 

significantly higher during the summer than during the 

winter, spring, and fall seasons. Winter rates of serious 

violence were approximately 6% lower on average than 

summer rates of serious violence, and rates for spring 

(5% lower) and fall (3% lower) were also lower than summer 

rates. Because serious violent victimization excluded simple 

assault, the differences between the seasonal patterns for 

total and serious violent victimization indicate a unique 

seasonal pattern for simple assault victimization compared 

to other types of violence.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 9

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 7

Seasonal rates of rape and sexual assault, 1993–2010

Rape and sexual assault

When trends in specific types of violent crime were 

examined separately, differences in seasonal patterns 

emerged. Rape and sexual assault rates exhibited some 

regular fluctuation across some of the seasons; however, 

the patterns did not indicate a single peak season, as the 

differences between the summer and spring rates were not 

statistically significant (figure 7). Winter and fall rates of 

rape and sexual assault tended to be lower than summer 

rates, but they were not significantly lower than spring rates. 

From 1993 to 2010, winter rates of rape and sexual assault 

were approximately 9% lower on average than summer rates, 

and fall rates were about 10% lower than summer rates. 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 10

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 8

Seasonal rates of robbery, 1993–2010

Robbery

Unlike the other types of violent crime, robbery did not 

exhibit seasonal fluctuations from year to year (figure 8). 

Robbery victimization rates were statistically similar during 

winter, spring, summer, and fall. This similarity in seasonal 

rates indicates that the periodic fluctuations that were 

observed in the rates did not usually recur each year during 

the same season. 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 11

0

1

2

3

4

5

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 9

Seasonal aggravated assault rates, 1993–2010

Aggravated assault

Seasonal patterns in aggravated assault were statistically 

significant and most comparable to those shown for serious 

violent victimization (figure 9). This was because aggravated 

assault rates were higher than the rates for the other serious 

violence crime types (rape and sexual assault and robbery). 

In over half of the years, aggravated assault appeared to peak 

in the summer. Likewise, the seasonality analysis indicated 

that aggravated assault rates were significantly higher during 

the summer than during the winter, spring, and fall seasons. 

More specifically, winter rates of aggravated assault were 

about 7% lower on average than summer rates, and rates for 

spring (6% lower) and fall (4% lower) were also lower than 

summer rates. 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 12

0

2

4

6

8

10

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 10

Seasonal rates of simple assault, 1993–2010

Simple assault

As suggested by the differences in the seasonal patterns 

for total violence and serious violent victimization, simple 

assault rates exhibited a unique pattern of seasonality 

(figure 10). Unlike any other type of violent victimization, 

simple assault rates were highest in the fall. On average, 

winter rates of simple assault were nearly 6% lower than 

fall rates, while spring and summer rates were about 5% 

lower than fall rates. This unique seasonal pattern for simple 

assault was due to the experiences of youth ages 12 to 17 

whose victimization experiences exhibited distinct seasonal 

patterns compared to adults (see textbox on page 13). 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 13

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Age 12–17

Age 18 and older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 11

Seasonal rates of simple assault for youth and adults, 1993–2010

Seasonal patterns in simple assault differed for youth and adults

Simple assault victimization rates were higher among youth ages 12 to 17 than among adults age 18 and older and 

exhibited different peak and trough seasons (figure 11). Simple assault rates among youth were lowest during the summer 

when the school year ended, and highest in the fall when the school year began. Adult rates of simple assault exhibited 

relatively less seasonal fluctuation and were highest in the summer.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 14

0.0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2.0

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 12

Seasonal rates of intimate partner violence, 1993–2010

Table 3

Average percent difference in the seasonal rate of violent 

victimization involving intimate partners, weapon use, and 

injury, 1993–2010

Intimate partner 

violence

Serious violence 

involving weapons

Serious violence 

resulting in injury

Winter -11.5%* -5.7%* -6.7**

Spring -5.8* -4.7* -6.7*

Summer ~ ~ ~

Fall -9.0* -3.2 -5.6

Note: See appendix table 3 for regression coefficients and standard errors.

*Difference is statistically significant (p < .05, two-tail test). 

~Highest rate season used for percentage comparisons.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 

1993–2010.

Intimate partner violence

To assess the degree of regular seasonal fluctuations in 

intimate partner violence, rates of all types of violent 

victimization in which the victim reported that the offender 

was a current or ex-spouse, or a current or ex-boyfriend 

or girlfriend, were examined. Seasonal rates of intimate 

partner violence appeared to peak in the summer in more 

than half of the years (figure 12). Statistical analysis of the 

intimate partner violence rates indicated that there were 

seasonal differences between summer rates and the rates 

for other seasons (table 3). Compared to the summer, 

intimate partner violence was about 12% lower in the winter, 

6% lower in the spring, and 9% lower in the fall (table 3). 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 15

0

2

4

6

8

10

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 13

Seasonal rates of serious violent crime involving weapons, 1993–2010

Serious violence involving weapons

Rates of serious violence involving weapons also exhibited 

some statistically significant patterns of seasonal variation 

(figure 13). Violence involving weapon use tended to be 

higher during the summer than during the winter and 

spring. On average, winter rates of this type of violence 

were approximately 6% lower than summer rates, while 

spring rates were about 5% lower than summer rates. The 

differences between the summer and fall rates were not large 

enough across the years to be statistically significant.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 16

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Summer '10

Winter '10

Summer '09

Winter '09

Summer '08

Winter '08

Summer '07

Winter '07

Summer '06

Winter '06

Summer '05

Winter '05

Summer '04

Winter '04

Summer '03

Winter '03

Summer '02

Winter '02

Summer '01

Winter '01

Summer '00

Winter '00

Summer '99

Winter '99

Summer '98

Winter '98

Summer '97

Winter '97

Summer '96

Winter '96

Summer '95

Winter '95

Summer '94

Winter '94

Summer '93

Winter '93

Per 1,000 persons age 12 or older

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Figure 14

Seasonal rates of serious violent crime resulting in injury, 1993–2010

Serious violence resulting in injury

Seasonal patterns in rates of serious violent victimization 

resulting in injury were comparable to those found for 

serious violence involving weapons (figure 14). Violent 

victimizations resulting in serious injury tended to occur at 

higher rates during the summer than during the winter and 

spring. Winter and spring rates of serious violence resulting 

in injury were about 7% lower than summer rates. Although 

fall rates were also somewhat lower on average than summer 

rates, these differences were not statistically significant. 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 17

Summary

With the exception of robbery, each of the violent and 

household property crimes exhibited a pattern of recurrent 

seasonal fluctuations in their trends from 1993 to 2010. 

The most common pattern for household property crimes 

was that victimization occurred at higher rates during 

the summer than during other seasons. Motor vehicle 

theft rates exhibited less regular seasonal fluctuation than 

household burglary and larceny. While summer rates of 

motor vehicle theft were higher than spring rates, they 

were not significantly different from winter and fall rates. 

Across each type of household property victimization, the 

fluctuations between the seasonal peak and trough rates are 

less than 11%. In comparison, the variations in the annual 

victimization rates from 1993 to 2010 were much larger. 

For example, the household property victimization rate 

declined 62% from 318.9 per 1,000 households in 1993 to 

120.2 per 1,000 households in 2010.3 Therefore, the variation 

in household victimization rates across the years was larger 

than the seasonal fluctuations within the calendar year.

For violent crimes, the most common pattern showed that 

victimization rates were higher during the summer than 

during other seasons of the year. However, this pattern 

had two important exceptions. First, unlike any other type 

of violence, robbery rates exhibited no regular seasonal 

variation over time. Second, simple assault rates were higher 

in the fall than in the winter, spring, and summer. These 

findings indicating little seasonality in robbery and peak 

rates of simple assault in the fall were similar to those found 

in prior BJS research based on victimization data from the 

mid-1970s.4

Intimate partner violence rates were higher during the 

summer than during other seasons of the year. This pattern 

was more similar to the seasonal variations found for serious 

violence than for simple assault victimization. Trends in 

assault resulting in serious injury and assault involving 

weapons also indicated that summer rates were higher than 

the rates in other seasons; however, the differences between 

fall and summer rates in these types of violence were not 

statistically significant. When seasonal differences in various 

types of violence were found, the magnitude of the difference 

between the peak and trough rates was 12% or less. Like 

household property crime, variations in the annual violent 

victimization rates from 1993 to 2010 were larger. The 

violent victimization rate declined 70% from 49.9 per 1,000 

persons age 12 or older in 1993 to 14.9 per 1,000 in 2010, 

varying more from 1993 to 2010 than across the seasons of 

the year.5

3

Criminal Victimization, 2010, NCJ 235508, BJS web, September 2011. 4Crime and Seasonality: National Crime Survey Report, NCJ 64818, BJS web, 

May 1980.

5Criminal Victimization, 2010, NCJ 235508, BJS web, September 2011.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 18

Methodology

Survey coverage

The National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) is an 

annual data collection conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau 

for the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). The NCVS is a 

self-report survey in which interviewed persons are asked 

about the number and characteristics of victimizations they 

they experienced during the prior 6 months. The NCVS 

collects information on nonfatal personal crimes (rape or 

sexual assault, robbery, aggravated and simple assault, and 

personal larceny) and household property crimes (burglary, 

motor vehicle theft, and other theft) both reported and not 

reported to police. In addition to providing annual-level and 

change estimates on criminal victimization, the NCVS is 

the primary source of information on the nature of criminal 

victimization incidents. Survey respondents provide 

information about themselves (such as age, sex, race and 

ethnicity, marital status, education level, and income) and 

whether they experienced a victimization. The survey also 

collects information about the offender in each victimization 

incident (such as age, race and ethnicity, sex, and victim–

offender relationship), characteristics of the crime (including 

time and place, use of weapons, nature of injury, and 

economic consequences), whether the crime was reported to 

police, reasons why the crime was or was not reported, and 

experiences with the criminal justice system.

The NCVS is administered to persons age 12 or older from 

a nationally representative sample of households in the 

United States. The NCVS defines a household as a group of 

members who all reside at a sampled address. Persons are 

considered household members when the sampled address is 

their usual place of residence at the time of the interview and 

when they have no usual place of residence elsewhere. Once 

selected, households remain in the sample for 3 years, and 

eligible persons in these households are interviewed every 

6 months for a total of seven interviews. New households 

rotate into the sample on an ongoing basis to replace 

outgoing households that have been in the sample for the 

3-year period. The sample includes persons living in group 

quarters, such as dormitories, rooming houses, and religious 

group dwellings, and excludes persons living in military 

barracks and institutional settings, such as correctional or 

hospital facilities, and homeless shelters. (For more detail, 

see Survey Methodology in Criminal Victimization in the 

United States, 2008, NCJ 231173, BJS web, May 2011.) 

Nonresponse and weighting adjustments

In 2010, about 41,000 households and 73,300 individuals age 

12 or older were interviewed for the NCVS. Each household 

was interviewed twice during the year. The response rate 

was 92.3% of households and 87.5% of eligible individuals. 

Victimizations that occurred outside of the U.S. were 

excluded from this report. 

Estimates in this report use data from the 1993 to 2010 

NCVS data files. These files can be weighted to produce 

annual estimates of victimization for persons age 12 or older 

living in U.S. households. Because the NCVS relies on a 

sample rather than a census of the entire U.S. population, 

weights are designed to inflate sample point estimates to 

known population totals and to compensate for survey 

nonresponse and other aspects of the sample design.

The NCVS data files include both person and household 

weights. Person weights provide an estimate of the 

population represented by each person in the sample. 

Household weights provide an estimate of the U.S. 

household population represented by each household in the 

sample. After proper adjustment, both household and person 

weights are also typically used to form the denominator in 

calculations of crime rates.

Victimization weights used in this analysis account for 

the number of persons present during an incident. Highfrequency repeat victimizations (or series victimizations) 

are handled differently in this report than in recent BJS 

victimization reports because they present a special problem 

for seasonality analysis. Series victimizations are similar in 

type but occur with such frequency that a victim is unable 

to recall each individual event or describe each event in 

detail. Survey procedures allow NCVS interviewers to 

identify and classify these similar victimizations as series 

victimizations and to collect detailed information on only 

the most recent incident in the series. Because the month 

in which a victimization occurred is recorded only for the 

most recent incident, series victimizations are treated as 

a single victimization. The percentage of victimizations 

reported as series victimizations declined from 1993 to 

2010. In 2010, series incidents accounted for about 1% 

of household property victimizations and about 3% of 

violent victimizations.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 19

Methodological changes to the NCVS in 2006

Methodological changes implemented in 2006 may have 

affected the crime estimates for that year to such an extent 

that they are not comparable to estimates from other years. 

Evaluation of 2007 and later data from the NCVS conducted 

by BJS and the Census Bureau found a high degree of 

confidence that estimates for 2007, 2008, 2009, and 2010 are 

consistent with and comparable to estimates for 2005 and 

previous years. The reports, Criminal Victimization, 2006, 

NCJ 219413, December 2007; Criminal Victimization, 2007, 

NCJ 224390, December 2008; Criminal Victimization, 2008, 

NCJ 227777, September 2009; Criminal Victimization, 2009, 

NCJ 231327, October 2010; and Criminal Victimization, 

2010, NCJ 235508, September 2011, are available on the 

BJS website.

Estimating and analyzing seasonal victimization rates

Victims’ reports of the month in which the incident 

occurred are used to estimate seasonal rates of victimization. 

Seasons of the year are defined according to the month in 

which the season begins. Therefore, winter rates include in 

December, January, and February incidents; spring rates 

include March, April, and May incidents; summer rates 

include June, July, and August incidents; and fall rates 

include September, October, and November incidents. The 

1993 to 2010 seasonal victimization rates include incidents 

occurring from December 1992 through November 2010. 

Seasonal household property victimization rates are 

estimated by dividing the weighted number of incidents 

by the weighted number of households and multiplying by 

1,000. Violent victimization rates are estimated by dividing 

the weighted number of incidents by the weighted number 

of persons age 12 and older and multiplying by 1,000. 

Sampling weights are used in all population estimates.

The NCVS has three important design features that 

reduce potential errors in measuring the month in which 

victimization occurred. First, the relatively short 6-month 

reference period reduces the chances that victims will forget 

the incident, underreport victimizations, and attribute 

incidents to the wrong month. Second, the bounding 

procedure provides a reference point for respondents 

about previously reported incidents, and thereby reduces 

telescoping and minimizes error in assigning dates to 

incidents. Third, the rotating panel structure of the survey 

is designed so that data are collected from respondents in 

each month of the year. This minimizes recency bias errors 

in reporting the dates of incidents, which may occur if the 

survey was administered only once during a fixed period 

each year.

The extent and statistical significance of seasonal patterns in 

household property victimization and violent victimization 

are estimated by developing regression models that 

decompose each of the victimization trends into three 

components: the long-term trend, seasonal variation 

around that trend, and error. To ensure that the results are 

robust, two regression-based approaches were used along 

with various sensitivity tests. For each analysis, variables 

representing the seasons of the year were regressed on each 

victimization trend to estimate the difference between the 

peak seasonal rate and the rates in the other seasons. 

The first approach estimated ordinary least squares 

regression models for each victimization series and included 

year fixed effects to account for the long-term trend. 

The degree of autocorrelation in the error structure was 

estimated using Breusch-Godfrey tests for up to four lagged 

periods. For victimization series in which autocorrelated 

error was present, a lagged indicator was found to remove 

the autocorrelation. In a few instances, autocorrelated errors 

persisted despite a variety of lag specifications; therefore, 

Newey-West standard errors were estimated to take into 

account the potential influences of autocorrelation and 

heteroskedasticity in the error structure. 

The second approach re-estimated the regression models 

for each victimization series using first differences in rates 

to examine whether the seasonality results were replicated 

when the models accounted for possible stochastic 

nonstationarity in the trends. Autocorrelated errors were 

similarly assessed and handled in the first-difference models 

and the conclusions about the statistical significance of each 

of the seasonal coefficients were replicated in these results. 

Stationarity in the victimization trends in levels and first 

differences was examined using Dickey-Fuller and PhilipsPerron tests. 

Additional diagnostic tests were performed to ensure 

that the models, and therefore estimates of the seasonal 

differences, fit the observed seasonal rates. These included 

visual inspections of observed and predicted trends and 

model-fit improvement F-tests that compared the results 

based on long-term trends to those based on long-term 

trends plus seasonal variations. Further details about this 

statistical process using the burglary trend as an illustration 

are shown in appendix table 4.

The results from the series of regression models shown in 

this report are presented in levels and converted to relative 

percentage differences because this information provides a 

more intuitive interpretation of the magnitude of seasonal 

variation relative to the average rate across the time period. 

These percentages are obtained by comparing the coefficient 

for each season against the estimated comparison rate 

(typically the summer) represented by the constant. The 

regression results that resulted in the percentages are shown 

in appendix tables 1–4. 
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 20

Appendix table 1

Results of regression analyses of seasonal patterns in 

household property crime victimization, by type of property 

crime, 1993–2010

Total property Motor vehicle

Crime Burglary Theft Larceny

Winter -5.91 (0.79)* -1.71 (0.25)* -0.11 (0.07) -4.10 (0.64)*

Spring -6.88 (0.71)* -1.44 (0.23)* -0.28 (0.07)* -5.15 (0.59)*

Summer ~ ~ ~ ~

Fall -2.69 (0.68)* -0.96 (0.25)* 0.00 (0.08) -1.74 (0.59)*

Constant 85.75 (1.98) 16.31 (0.78) 5.00 (0.15) 64.43 (1.49)

Note: All constants are statistically significant (p < .05, two-tail test). Standard 

errors are shown in parentheses. 

~Comparison season (season with highest average rate).

 *Seasonal rate is significantly different from the summer rate (p < .05, two-tail 

test).

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 

1993–2010.

Appendix table 2

Results of regression analyses of seasonal patterns in violent victimization, by type of crime, 1993–2010

Total violence Serious violence Rape/sexual assault Robbery Aggravated assault Simple assault

Winter -0.62 (0.21)* -0.31 (0.09)* -0.06 (0.03)* -0.04 (0.05) -0.23 (0.06)* -0.48 (0.16)*

Spring -0.48 (0.16)* -0.26 (0.09)* -0.04 (.03) -0.03 (0.05) -0.20 (0.06)* -0.40 (0.11)*

Summer -0.25 (0.20) ~ ~ -0.01 (0.05) ~ -0.43 (0.15)*

Fall ~ -0.18 (0.09)* -0.07 (0.03)* ~ -0.12 (0.06)* ~

Constant 13.98 (0.61) 5.57 (0.19) 0.67 (0.07) 1.59 (0.08) 3.31 (0.15) 8.59 (0.45)

Note: All constants are statistically significant (p < .05, two-tail test). Standard errors are shown in parentheses.

~Comparison season (season with highest average rate).

*Seasonal rate is significantly different from the comparison rate (p < .05, two-tail test).

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 1993–2010.

Appendix table 3

Results of regression analyses of seasonal patterns in violent 

victimization involving intimate partners, weapon use, and 

injury, 1993–2010

Intimate partner 

violence

Serious violence 

involving weapons

Serious violence 

resulting in injury

Winter -0.18 (0.05)* -0.23 (0.08)* -0.12 (0.04)*

Spring -0.09 (0.04)* -0.19 (0.07)* -0.12 (0.04)*

Summer ~ ~ ~

Fall -0.14 (0.04)* -0.13 (0.07) -0.10 (0.05)

Constant 1.56 (0.11) 4.04 (0.13) 1.78 (0.11)

Note: All constants are statistically significant (p < .05, two-tail test). Standard 

errors are shown in parentheses. 

~Comparison season (season with highest average rate).

*Seasonal rate is significantly different from the summer rate (p < .05, two-tail 

test).

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 

1993–2010.
Seasonal patterns in Criminal Victimization Trends | June 2014 21

Appendix table 4

Expanded detail of regression model results for seasonal 

burglary rates, 1994–2010

OLS Model 1 OLS Model 2

First differences 

model

Variable b s.e.b b s.e.b b s.e.b

Winter - - -1.71 0.25* -1.94 0.20*

Spring - - -1.44 0.23* -1.56 0.17*

Fall - - -0.96 0.25* -0.84 0.17*

1994 -1.33 1.39 -1.33 0.92 - -

1995 -3.16 1.18* -3.16 0.72* - -

1996 -3.33 1.12* -3.33 0.71* - -

1997 -4.16 1.06* -4.16 0.71* - -

1998 -5.69 1.05* -5.69 0.77* - -

1999 -6.72 1.09* -6.72 0.73* - -

2000 -7.53 1.06* -7.53 0.79* - -

2001 -8.00 1.06* -8.00 0.73* - -

2002 -8.11 1.08* -8.11 0.72* - -

2003 -7.78 1.11* -7.78 0.70* - -

2004 -7.81 1.08* -7.81 0.69* - -

2005 -7.48 1.10* -7.48 0.79* - -

2006 -7.88 1.10* -7.88 0.71* - -

2007 -8.66 1.03* -8.66 0.76* - -

2008 -8.50 1.09* -8.50 0.75* - -

2009 -9.02 1.20* -9.02 0.74* - -

2010 -9.18 1.11* -9.18 0.72* - -

Constanta 15.28 1.03* 16.31 0.78* -0.12 0.10

R2 0.91 0.96 0.61

Note: Breusch-Godfrey test for autocorrelation, not significant (lag 1). DickeyFuller and Phillips-Perron tests show burglary trends are not stationary. 

Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests show burglary trends are stationary in first 

differences.

*p < .05 (two-tail test).

a

Omitted year is 1993.

Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics, National Crime Victimization Survey, 

1993–2010.
Office of Justice Programs

Innovation • Partnerships • Safer Neighborhoods

www.ojp.usdoj.gov

The Bureau of Justice Statistics, located in the Office of Justice Programs, 

U.S. Department of Justice, collects, analyzes, and disseminates statistical 

information on crime, criminal offenders, victims of crime, and the operation 

of justice systems at all levels of government. William J. Sabol is acting director.

This report was written and verified by Janet L. Lauritsen and Nicole White, 

University of Missouri - St. Louis. Lynn Langton assisted with verification.

Jill Thomas edited the report. Barbara Quinn produced the report.

June 2014, NCJ 245959