U.S. Fire Administration

The Seasonal Nature 

of Fires 

January 2005 
FA–236 

January 2005 

United States Fire Administration/National Fire Data Center 

The Seasonal Nature of Fires


Department of Homeland Security 

Federal Emergency Management Agency 

United States Fire Administration 

National Fire Data Center 
U.S. Fire Administration Mission Statement

As an entity of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the mission of the United States 

Fire Administration is to reduce life and economic losses due to fire and related emergencies 

through leadership, advocacy, coordination, and support. We serve the Nation independently, in 

coordination with other Federal agencies and in partnership with fire protection and emergency 

service communities. With a commitment to excellence, we provide public education, training, 

technology, and data initiatives. 

On March 1, 2003, FEMA became part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. FEMA’s 

continuing mission within the new department is to lead the effort to prepare the Nation for all 

hazards and effectively manage Federal response and recovery efforts following any national incident. FEMA also initiates proactive mitigation activities, trains first responders, and manages the 

Citizen Corps, the National Flood Insurance Program, and the U.S. Fire Administration. 
CONTENTS


List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi


List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . vi


The Seasonal Nature of Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 
 1 

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 
 1


Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1


Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2


Adjusted Percentages . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3


Seasonal Fire Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3


Winter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5


Spring . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7


Summer . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8


Fall . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8


Holiday Fire Profile . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8


Independence Day . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8


Halloween and “Devil’s Night“ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12


Thanksgiving . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14


Winter Holiday Season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15


Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19


v 
LIST OF FIGURES 

1. Two-Year Daily Average of All Fire Incidents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 

2. Daily Fire Incidence for Outside, Vehicle, and Structure Fires . . . . . 4 

3. Fire Causes by Season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 

4. Daily Incidence of Structure Heating Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 

5. Incidence of Outside Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7 

6. Fires With Natural Cause . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 

7. Fires Caused by Open Flame . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 

8. Causes of Independence Day Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 

9. Causes of Halloween Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 

10. October and November Incendiary and Suspicious Structure Fires 13 

11. Incendiary and Suspicious Structure Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 

12. Causes of Christmas Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 

13. Fires Caused by Candles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 

14. Causes of New Year’s Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 

LIST OF TABLES 

1. Daily Incidence of Fires by Month and Season . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 

2. Relative Increase in Number of Reported Incidents 

by Selected Incident Type for July 4 and 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 

3. Loss Measures Per Fire for Independence Day Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 

4. Loss Measures for Devil’s Night and Halloween Fires . . . . . . . . . . . 14 

5. Loss Measures for All Thanksgiving Day Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 

6. Loss Measures for Thanksgiving Day Residential Structure Fires . . . 15 

7. Increase in Structure Open Flame Fires for Selected Holidays . . . . . 16 

8. Loss Measures for Winter Holiday Fires: December 1–January 7 . . . 16 

9. Christmas Tree Fires in December and Early January . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 

10. Christmas Cooking Fires . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 

vi 
_________________________ 

THE SEASONAL NATURE OF FIRES 

Executive Summary 

As weather and human activities change with the seasons of the year, so does the incidence, 

causes and severity of fires. Cold winter weather increases indoor activities and the need for 

heating, which brings about the peak period of heating structure fires. Daily fire incidence is at 

its highest in the spring. Spring is characterized by an increase in outside fires and a decrease in 

fires related to heating. The increase in outside spring fires is in large part due to the increase in 

tree, grass, and brush fires. Summer fires reflect an increase of incendiary and suspicious fires, 

fires associated with fireworks and natural fires caused by lightning strikes. These fires are a 

reflection of the change to warmer weather and the consequent increase in both outside activities and dry natural vegetation. Fire incidence is at its lowest in the fall. In fall, there is a decrease 

in outside fires, an increase in heating−related structure fires and the peak period of cooking 

fires. The incidence of vehicle fires is relatively constant throughout the year, as are their causes. 

The incidence of daily fires increases during and around four holiday periods: Independence Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and the winter holiday period that includes Christmas 

and New Year’s. More fires are reported on July 4th than any other day of the year. Brush and 

outside fires increase substantially due to family outings and the misuse of fireworks. On Halloween, and the night before, incendiary and suspicious structure fires are about 60 percent 

more frequent than on an average day. As might be expected, cooking fires increase on both 

Thanksgiving and Christmas days, but drop below average on the following days. In addition to 

Christmas, the winter holidays include Hanukkah, Kwanzaa, and New Year’s. During this 

period, structure fires increase and the dollar loss per fire is 34 percent greater than normal, due 

largely to the decorative use of Christmas trees, other combustible materials such as wrapping 

paper, and candles. Alcohol may also play a contributing role in the increase in holiday fires. 

Introduction 

Nearly 1.7 million fires in the United States during 2002 claimed 3,380 lives, injured 

18,425 people, and destroyed over $10 billion in property.1 Incendiary and suspicious acts 

(including arson), cooking and carelessness with open flames are the leading causes of fires.2 

These causes have a common thread: human activity and human error. As such, most of these 

fires were likely preventable. 

Many activities that influence fire incidence change with the season of the year. In the win− 

ter, the need for heating increases. Hot, dry weather affects wildland areas and creates fire− 

prone situations. Warm weather tends to bring people and their behaviors outdoors. Behaviors 

also change as people participate in various holiday customs and traditions. At some holidays, 

decorations in the home increase the load of combustible material. The use of candles and extra 

1Fire Loss in the United States 2002, National Fire Protection Association. 

2National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS), U.S. Fire Administration, 2001–2002 average. 

1 
_________________________ 

electric lighting may be used to celebrate other events. Fireworks are part of Fourth of July and 

other celebrations. As part of seasonal celebrations, people may prepare and cook elaborate 

meals. People also travel more, leaving some homes unoccupied while other homes increase in 

occupancy. 

Any of these behaviors can affect both the incidence and the severity of fires. By under− 

standing the nature and scope of seasonal fires, public education and other fire−related programs can be specifically targeted at these seasonal fire problems. 

This report first explores fire patterns by each season of the year; both the changes in incidence and the causes of fire are discussed. The report then focuses on the changes in fire profiles 

around four seasonal holidays: Independence Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas. 

These holidays were chosen because of their striking changes in fire patterns. 

Methods 

The findings in this report are based primarily on evaluation of two years of National Fire 

Incident Reporting System (NFIRS) fire incident data (2001–2002).3 NFIRS is a voluntary data 

collection system administered by the United States Fire Administration (USFA), a division of 

the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). In 2002, 13,894 fire departments in 49 

states submitted data to NFIRS. The participating fire departments include career, volunteer, 

and combination departments that serve communities ranging from rural hamlets to the largest 

cities. Participation in NFIRS is voluntary, so fire incidents that are reported may not reflect all of 

a department’s activity. Also, information that is recorded for an incident is not required to be 

complete. Nevertheless, each year of NFIRS data contains between 600,000 and 800,000 

records, each representing a separate fire report. This makes NFIRS the largest fire database in 

the world. 

The data used in this report were averaged over 2001 and 2002. Two years of data were used 

to smooth out fluctuations or anomalies that may arise in any single year. These fluctuations 

may be caused by any of a number of factors, such as climatological effects (e.g., a cold winter, a 

dry summer), changes in demographics (e.g., increasing or decreasing population), or changes 

in reporting. 

A second resource used in compiling the data is the annual National Fire Protection Association (NFPA) survey of municipal fire departments. Each year, the NFPA receives about 3,000 

responses to their survey. Departments are randomly selected, with the sampling stratified by 

size of the community that participated. The NFPA extrapolates statistics from the survey to estimate total annual fire loss in the United States. These statistics include total dollar loss, injuries, 

fatalities, and fire incidence. Applying the percentage of reported loss from an NFIRS category 

to the total loss estimated by the NFPA provides an estimate of the national loss for a specific 

category of fire incidents. This procedure was used in this study to estimate fire incidence, total 

dollar loss, and casualties and is the accepted methodology for fire−related data analyses. 

3At the writing of this report, NFIRS is continuing to transition from Version 4.1 to 5.0. Some Version 4.1 data elements do not 

convert directly to Version 5.0, therefore only incidents reported in Version 5.0 were used in this report. Additionally, mutual 

aid records were excluded from analysis. The seasonal analysis is based on over 685,000 Version 5.0 incidents, or 57 percent 

of all reported fire incidents during 2001 and 2002. 

2 
_________________________ 

Adjusted Percentages 

In making national estimates, the unknowns in the database should not be ignored. The 

approach taken in this report is to provide an “adjusted” percentage that is computed using 

only those incidents for which the cause was provided. In effect, this distributes the fires for 

which the cause is unknown in the same proportion as the fires for which the cause is known, 

which may or may not be approximately right. 

Seasonal Fire Profile 

For purposes of this report, winter is defined as the months of January through March, 

spring as April through June, summer as July through September and fall as October through 

December. Seasons are not as specific nor as easily defined as other fire factors. Climatic 

changes associated with seasons are not well bounded. Although defined by calendar dates of 

solstices and equinoxes, seasons actually blend into one another and produce climates that differ by area of the country. Yearly weather changes affect the seasonal variations and flow as well 

as human activities. Nevertheless, even with some blurring, seasons do have characteristic fire 

profile tendencies. These characteristics may be the result of climatic changes in concert with 

seasonal differences in human activities. 

Average temperatures in 2001 and 2002 were the sixth and fourteenth warmest years on 

record, respectively, for the United States. Globally, 2001 was the second warmest year on 

record. During November 2001, two−thirds of the country was considered “very warm,” 

within the top ten percent of recorded temperatures for that month. From 1999 through 2001 

the country experienced below average precipitation levels. The states most affected were 

along the coasts (Maine had its driest year on record) while states from the upper Midwest 

southward along the Mississippi River Valley received above normal precipitation. From January through October 2001, 15 to 20 percent of the country experienced long term drought 

considered to be extreme or severe. The 2001–2002 winter season was the ninth warmest on 

record, and particularly warm in the Northwest. Summer 2002 was tied for the third warmest 

in 108 years, although temperatures cooled toward historic averages in the fall. During 2002 

drought conditions generally improved in the eastern U.S., although the drought worsened in 

much of the western half of the country and the central and southern Great Lakes.4 

Averaged over 2 years, the seasonal nature of fire becomes more evident (Figure 1). For 

example, the number of fires in winter is much less than summer. Some interesting spikes on 

particular days were evident; the highest by far is July 4. Forty−five percent of reported annual 

fires were outside fires, so much of the overall seasonal fire pattern not surprisingly is a result of 

the variation in outside fires. Daily incidence of outside fires were most numerous in the 

spring, structure fires increase in the colder months, and vehicle fires were fairly constant 

throughout the year (Figure 2). Because vehicle fires show only a slight seasonal variation in 

incidence and cause of fire, the focus of this report is primarily on outside fires and structure 

fires. 

4National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center Web site 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov. 

3 
4


0 

2000 

4000 

6000 

8000 

10000 

12000 

14000 

Figure 1. Two−Year Daily Average of All Fire Incidents 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Incidents 

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1 Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

0 

2000 

4000 

6000 

8000 

10000 

Incidents 

Structure 

Outdoor/Other 

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1 Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

Figure 2. Daily Fire Incidence for Outside, Vehicle, and Structure Fires 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Vehicle 
On average, spring finds heightened fire incidence with a seasonal average of nearly 5,000 

fires each day (Table 1). The increase in fires begins in the late winter and continues through 

the summer. Winter fires, even with the extra amount associated with residential heating, 

occur less often (4,548 fires each day) because of the drop in outside fires and vehicle fires. 

Summer fires, including the spike in fires during the July 4th festivities, rank second in incidence, or 4,932 fires per day. Fire incidence is at its lowest in the fall at 4,285 incidents each day, 

a 14 percent decrease from the spring. 

Table 1. Daily Incidence of Fires by Month and Season 

(estimated average 2001–2002) 

Season Month Daily Average Daily Seasonal 

Average 

Winter January 

February 

March 

4,203 

4,604 

4,842 

4,548 

Spring April 

May 

June 

5,291 

4,787 

4,886 

4,986 

Summer July 

August 

September 

5,683 

4,897 

4,191 

4,932 

Fall October 

November 

December 

4,103 

4,664 

4,101 

4,285 

Over the year, incendiary and suspicious fires were the most common cause of fire. They 

account for 22 percent of all fires on average (Figure 3). Incendiary and suspicious fires were 

proportionally lower in the fall and winter than in the spring and summer, and were the lead 

cause in each season except fall. Cooking increases substantially in the fall, due in part to holiday cooking, and is the second leading cause of fires in all other seasons. 

Winter 

In the winter, structure fires increase, although total fires decrease. A substantial portion of 

the structure fire increase is caused by heating fires (Figure 4). In an average year, heating is the 

cause of 17 percent of structure fires; however, during the winter, heating fires jump to 27 

percent of structure fires. Heating fires were concentrated in late fall through mid winter 

(December–February) during winter holidays and the coldest months. Since colder temperatures result in longer operating time for heating equipment, there is more opportunity for that 

equipment to cause a fire. 

Winter also sees an increase in outside fires caused by open flame−fires ignited by matches, 

open fires (including campfires), and embers. In fact, open flame is the second leading cause of 

outside winter fires, after incendiary or suspicious fires, possibly the by−product of fires initially lighted for warmth. 

5 
0 5 10 15 20 25 

Incendiary/Suspicious 

Children Playing 

Smoking 

Heating 

Cooking 

Electrical Distribution 

Appliances 

Open Flame 

Other Heat 

Other Equipment 

Exposure 

Natural 

Percent 

Winter Spring Summer Fall

0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 

Yearly Average % 

Figure 3. Fire Causes by Season 

(Average 2001–2002) 

Seasonal % 

0 

200 

400 

600 

800 

1000 

Incidents 

Figure 4. Daily Incidence of Structure Heating Fires 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1 Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

6

7

Spring

Spring is the season with the highest daily average of fires. This peak is largely due to an

increase in outside fires—especially tree, brush, and grass fires (Figure 5). This increase is generally because relative humidity tends to be lower, winds tend to be higher, and, because leaves

are still off trees or just beginning to bud, sunlight can directly reach the ground to both warm

and dry surface fuels (such as the previous fall’s leaves).5 Such conditions are favorable for the

ignition of dry grass and brush. Although the timing of these conditions may vary from region

to region, spring has the highest average daily incidence of outdoor fires, a 17 percent increase

over the average. About 30 percent of the reported tree, brush, and grass fires occur within

these 3 months.

Incendiary and suspicious fires also peak in the spring. This peak is not surprising as 55

percent of overall incendiary and suspicious fires were outside fires. Heating fires decline in

structures in spring, as expected, while cooking fires begin to increase. Wildland fires—the

subset of tree, brush, and grass fires that occur in Wildland areas—increase to about 44 fires

per day in the spring.6 Incidents

Figure 5. Incidence of Outside Fires

(Estimated Average 2001–2002)

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

All outdoor

Trees, brush

_________________________

5Virginia Department of Forestry, http://www.dof.virginia.gov/fire/va−fire−history.shtml accessed December 2004.

6Wildland fires are identified as NFIRS Incident Type 140–143 and Property Use 669. These are forests with and without

logging operations. They include wildlife preserves; timber tracts used to plant, replant, and conserve forests; and timber

and log piles in forests. Wildland fires do not include fires in sawmills operating in the forest.
_________________________ 

Summer 

The predictable peak of fires around July 4 is due to an increase in grass and brush fires 

ignited by fireworks. Many fires set by fireworks go unreported, so the peak is undoubtedly 

much sharper than shown in Figure 5. Following this holiday, summer fire incidence steadily 

declines. Fires caused by natural phenomenon (Figure 6) follow a similar pattern of increasing 

incidence during summer. Lightning strikes are highest in the summer, which is often the 

cause of natural fires. The dangers from summer lightning are compounded with potentially 

dry conditions and high temperatures that contribute to the rapid spread of wildfire during the 

summer and early fall. 

Figure 7 shows the estimated daily incidence of all fires caused by open flame. This 

includes fires started by matches, lighters, embers, and torches.7 Contrary to popular belief, 

the incidence of outside fires caused by open flame is lower during the summer than the winter 

and spring. The decline begins in the summer and continues through the fall. The reduction of 

open flame fires in the summer is countered by the increase in fires caused by natural phenomena, other heat sources, and other equipment. 

Incendiary/suspicious is the leading cause of summer fires, causing nearly one quarter of 

all fires. Cooking is the leading cause of structure fires in the summer and the second leading 

cause of fires overall. Children playing fires peak in summer. Heating fires account for only 6 

percent of summer structure fires, but the reduction in heating fires is offset by increases in 

nearly all other causes. 

Fall 

Fire incidence is at its lowest level in the fall months. The weather is still mild, so structure 

heating has not become a dominant factor. Cooking is the leading cause of both structure fires 

and fires overall during the fall; incendiary and suspicious fires were the leading cause of outside fires. Outside fires decline in the fall, reaching their lowest point in the late fall. The proportion of fires caused by open flame increases in the fall from its summer low. 

Holiday Fire Profile 

The incidence of daily fires increase during and around four nationally celebrated holidays. 

This section details the 2−year average of loss data surrounding these holidays and explores the 

reasons for the increase in fires. 

Independence Day 

In all years studied, Independence Day has more incidents reported in NFIRS than any 

other day of the year (see Figure 1). The number of incidents in the NFIRS database associated 

7The cause “open flame” is a residual category that includes fires started by torches, matches, lighters, candles, open fires 

(e.g., campfires, bonfires, warning flares, rubbish fires, open trash burners, open incinerators, outdoor fireplaces), hot 

embers, ashes, and rekindles. Open flame fires are not associated with fires caused by arson, children playing, smoking, 

heating, cooking, electrical distribution, or appliances. 

8 
0 

100 

200 

300 

400 

500 

600 

700 

800 

900 

Incidents 

Figure 6. Fires With Natural Cause 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1 Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

0 

200 

400 

600 

800 

1000 

1200 

1400 

Incidents 

Figure 7. Fires Caused by Open Flame 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1 Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

9

_________________________ 

with July 4 and July 5 were 2.4 times the average daily number of incidents on other days of the 

year (Table 2). Brush and outside fire incidents were nearly four times higher during this holiday than on the average day. Structure fires increase on July 4 and July 5th as well. As would be 

expected, fireworks were responsible for a considerable portion of the increase in fire incidence on Independence Day. In fact, 31 percent of the total annual number of fireworks−related 

fires occur on July 4 and 5. As shown in Table 3, however, these fires individually were less 

severe than fires generally, with lower average dollar loss per fire, less than half of the injuries 

and one third the deaths per fire. 

Table 2. Relative Increase in Number of Reported Incidents 

by Selected Incident Type for July 4 and 5 

(ratio of total for July 4 and 5 to total for average day) 

Relative Increase 

Year All Incidents Fireworks Structures Outside Fires 

2001 2.4 58.4 1.3 3.9 

2002 2.4 55.1 1.3 3.7 

Table 3. Loss Measures Per Fire for Independence Day Fires 

(average 2001–2002) 

Loss Measure Average Day July 4 and 5 (per day) 

Dollar Loss/Incident 

12.7 5.90 

2.5 0.79 

$6,245 $3,581 

Injuries/1,000 Incidents 

Fatalities/1,000 Incidents 

Although losses per fire incident were not high, the sheer volume of incidents on July 4 and 

5 results in an increase in the total number of casualties. Each year, between 8,000 and 9,000 

individuals require emergency room treatment for fireworks−related injuries. Many other fireworks injuries are treated at home. Based on a survey of hospitals, the U.S. Consumer Product 

Safety Commission (CPSC) estimated 9,500 injuries from fireworks in 2001 and 8,800 in 

2002.8 The CPSC reports that approximately 5,700 of these injuries occurred during the 

month of July in both years. Many burn and fire injuries, particularly those that result from 

fireworks, do not appear in the NFIRS database. Instead, only injuries that result from a fire to 

which the local fire department responds is reported to NFIRS. As a result, if an individual is 

injured with fireworks but no fire requiring a fire department response occurs, the incident 

will not appear in fire incident data, even if the fire department was the emergency medical 

service (EMS) first responder. Thus, the fire injury data understate the true magnitude of the 

problem. 

Total annual dollar loss for fires on July 4 and 5 is estimated to be at least $77 million for 

both property loss and loss of contents. 

8Greene, Michael A. and James Joholske, 2000 Fireworks Annual Report: Fireworks−Related Deaths, Emergency Department 

Treated Injuries, and Enforcement Activities During 2002, U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, June 2003. 

10 
Fireworks are not the only cause of Independence Day fires. Independence Day is a traditional opportunity to engage in outdoor activities, such as family picnics. Many brush and 

other outside fires result from the misuse of heat of ignition, which includes abandoned and 

discarded materials, inadequate control of an open fire, and children playing with the heat 

source. Activities that require the use of an open flame are particular culprits—the lighting of 

barbecues, the match used to light fireworks, improperly discarded charcoal ashes, or children 

playing with heat sources (perhaps fireworks or grilling materials). 

The causes of fires on July 4 and 5 differ in several important areas from the rest of the year 

(Figure 8). The proportion of fires caused by other heat, fires of incendiary and suspicious 

origin and fires caused by children playing were substantially higher on July 4 than both the 

summer and the annual averages. (Fireworks fires are classified under “other heat, ember, and 

spark”; hence, the dramatic increase in that category.) Independence Day injuries can be 

reduced with proper supervision of children and preventing them from gaining access to lighters, matches, and other dangerous items, including fireworks. Because children tend to emulate adults, adults should apply safe practices while cooking outdoors and handling legal fireworks. 

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 

Other Heat 

Incendiary/Suspicious 

Cooking 

Open Flame 

Natural 

Smoking 

Exposure 

Children Playing 

Appliances 

Electrical Distribution 

Heating 

Other Equipment 

Figure 8. Causes of Independence Day Fires 

(Average 2001–2002) 

Percent 

Summer 

July 4–5 

There is no clear explanation for the proportional increase of incendiary and suspicious 

fires on Independence Day; perhaps excesses of celebrating and the opportunity for vandalism 

and mischief contribute to the increase. Regardless of the root cause, these data serve as a warning that fireworks−related fires or other Independence Day fires are not all accidental. In fact, of 

11 
the more than 6,600 incendiary and suspicious fires on July 4 and 5, the form of heat of ignition was fireworks 32 percent of the time and matches 21 percent of the time. Twenty eight 

percent of the incendiary and suspicious fires on these dates had wood or paper as the type of 

material first ignited, 19 percent were fabric or textiles, 15 percent were natural products (e.g., 

grass, leaves, hay, straw, tobacco, rubber, grain, coal). 

Halloween and “Devil’s Night” 

Halloween, including the so−called “Devil’s Night” the night before, is another holiday 

when fires spike, although considerably less sharply than the July 4 peak. This is true for both 

outside and structure fires. As Halloween has been typically associated with activities and cultural icons related to mischief, it is not surprising to find that the origin of many of these fires is 

suspicious or incendiary (Figure 9). 

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 

Incendiary/Suspicious 

Cooking 

Open Flame 

Heating 

Other Heat 

Exposure 

Smoking 

Appliances 

Natural 

Electrical Distribution 

Other Equipment 

Children Playing 

Figure 9. Causes of Halloween Fires 

(Average 2001–2002) 

Percent 

Halloween 

Fall 

The day and night of Devil’s Night (October 30) had a 59 percent increase and Halloween 

(October 31) had a 63 percent increase in the daily occurrence of incendiary or suspicious 

structure fires (Figure 10) for October and November. As seen in Figure 11, the peak in incendiary and suspicious structure fires on Halloween is slightly lower than the peak on July 5th but 

higher than New Year’s Day. Though Devil’s Night arson fires occur more frequently than other 

nights, the trend has decreased from previous years. Public awareness of Devil’s Night has 

played a role in this reduction of arson. 

12 
0 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

Incidents 

Oct 1Oct 8Oct 15Oct 22Oct 29Nov 5Nov 12Nov 19Nov 26 

October and November Incendiary and Suspicious Structure Fires 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Figure 10. 

0 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

300 

Incidents 

Incendiary and Suspicious Structure Fires 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1 Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

Figure 11. 

13

_________________________ 

In Detroit, where the problem was especially severe in the 1990’s, a special effort has been 

made over several years to combat the incidence of arson on Devil’s Night. Police and city 

officials credit a nearly decade−old program called Angel’s Night for the turnaround in arson 

activity. The city involved the community in activities such as securing or removing abandoned 

buildings, vehicles, and other possible targets of arson (e.g., discarded mattresses, trash). 

Detroit citizens established neighborhood watch patrols to report suspicious activity around 

the city on October 29, 30, and 31. The city provides flashing yellow lights to some watch 

groups that patrol via automobile. Detroit, along with several other municipalities, established 

a curfew for juveniles on October 29, 30, and 31. Curfew legislation has been credited with 

helping to reduce the arson problem over the 3−day period.9 

Because Devil’s Night and Halloween arson is often targeted at abandoned buildings and 

vacant lots the estimated dollar property loss per fire is less than the average fire during the rest 

of the year. Fire−related injuries and fatalities per day were higher than the annual (Table 4). The 

total fire loss for the 2 nights is estimated to total $56 million. These fires were estimated to 

injure 136 people and kill about 27. 

Table 4. Loss Measures for Devil’s Night and Halloween Fires 

(average 2001–2002) 

Loss Measure Average Day Oct. 30–Nov. 1 (per day) 

Dollar Loss/Fire $5,360 

12.7 

2.5

$6,245 

Injuries/1,000 Fires 14.4 

Fatalities/1,000 Fires 3.1 

Thanksgiving 

For many, the family dinner is the highlight of the Thanksgiving holiday.10 As may be 

expected, the extensive cooking on Thanksgiving results in numerous cooking−related fires. 

Indeed, cooking fires peak on Thanksgiving. About 5,200 Thanksgiving Day fires require a fire 

department response, cause $21 million in property losses, and result in about 51 injuries and 

11 fatalities. Of these fires, cooking is the cause in more than 2,200 incidents, or about 43 

percent of all fires. Thanksgiving Day fires were less destructive than average day fires, with 32 

percent less dollar loss per incident. Injuries and fatalities per fire were slightly below average 

(Table 5). 

Table 5. Loss Measures for All Thanksgiving Day Fires 

(average 2001–2002) 

Loss Measure Average Thanksgiving Day 

Dollar Loss/Fire 

12.7 

2.5 2.4 

$6,245 $4,249 

Injuries/1,000 Fires 11.1 

Fatalities/1,000 Fires

9“Detroit Neighbors Stamp Out Devil’s Night Fires,” October 31, 2000, http://www.apbnews.com, accessed November 

2000. 

10The Thanksgiving Days analyzed in this report were Nov. 22, 2001 and Nov. 28, 2002. 

14 
It is particularly important to analyze residential structure fires on Thanksgiving, as many 

families spend the holiday in their home or in the home of a friend or family member. Cooking 

is the leading cause of residential structure fires on Thanksgiving, followed by heating and 

open flame. Ovens and cooking ranges were the leading type of equipment involved in 

Thanksgiving Day residential structure fires. Thanksgiving Day residential structure fires were 

also less damaging and cause fewer casualties than residential structure fires on other days 

(Table 6). 

Table 6. Loss Measures for Thanksgiving Day Residential Structure Fires 

(average 2001–2002) 

Loss Measure Average Thanksgiving Day 

Dollar Loss/Fire $8,054 

35.8 22.9 

6.9 5.7 

$13,188 

Injuries/1,000 Fires 

Fatalities/1,000 Fires

Vehicle fires on Thanksgiving substantially decrease. Over the two years studied, the incidence of vehicle fires on Thanksgiving Day decreased 33 percent as compared to the year− 

round daily average. This may be an indication of reduced vehicle travel on Thanksgiving Day 

itself. 

Winter Holiday Season 

The winter holiday season is defined here as being from December 1 to January 7. The winter holiday season exists during a time of elevated risk for winter heating fires and contains 

several holidays—Hanukkah, Christmas, Kwanzaa, and New Year’s—each with the potential 

to change the profile of fire incidence and cause. Many people begin the celebration of the 

season by decorating their home with seasonal garlands, electric lights, candles, banners, or 

displays. Probably the most popular addition for the holiday season, and as fire hazard, is the 

Christmas tree. It may ignite easily, especially if dried out, it burns vigorously, and it often is 

positioned in such a way to allow rapid fire spread to other combustible materials in the house. 

The lights on the tree and proximity to fireplaces add to the danger, along with discarded gift 

wrapping. The use of candles for decorative or religious purposes also increases during this 

period. 

Christmas and New Year’s experienced a substantial increase in structure fires caused by 

open flame compared to the average day (Table 7). Thanksgiving also had a relative increase in 

open flame fires although not as pronounced. This increase may be related to the use of candles 

in seasonal displays. 

15 
Table 7. Increase in Structure Open Flame Fires for Selected Holidays 

(average 2001–2002) 

Date Relative Increase 

Average Day 1.0 

New Year’s Day 2.1 

Halloween 1.0 

Thanksgiving 1.3 

Christmas 2.4 

Winter holiday fires were more severe than the average fire during the year across all loss 

measures (Table 8). Christmas tree and other decoration fires were substantially more damaging—injuries per fire were twice as high as the average winter holiday fire, fatalities per fire 

were five times greater and the dollar loss per fire was over three times the winter holiday average. This is indicative of the potential rapid spread of a tree or decoration fire. The rate of 

Christmas tree fires per day was higher in the last half of December than the first half, and then 

declined during the first week of January (Table 9). 

Table 8. Loss Measures for Winter Holiday Fires: December 1–January 7 

(average 2001–2002) 

All Winter Christmas Tree and Loss Measure Average Holiday Fires Decoration Fires 

Dollar Loss/Fire $6,245 $7,783 $27,259 

Injuries/1,000 Fires 12.7 15.9 39.0 

Fatalities/1,000 Fires 2.5 4.2 21.3 

Table 9. Christmas Tree Fires in December and Early January 

(average 2001–2002) 

Period Christmas Tree Fires/Day 

December 1–14 32.7 

December 15–31 46.2 

January 1–7 42.1 

Similar to Thanksgiving Day, there is an increased incidence of cooking fires on Christmas 

Eve and Christmas Day, while December 26 has fewer cooking fires than an average day of the 

year (Table 10). Again like Thanksgiving, the incidence of vehicle fires decreases on Christmas. 

Over the 2−year period, vehicle fires decreased 36 percent on Christmas Day compared to the 

year−round daily average. 

Table 10. Christmas Cooking Fires 

(average 2001–2002) 

Date Relative Increase 

Average Day 1.0 

December 24 1.4 

December 25 1.8 

December 26 0.9 

16 
The incidence of fires caused by cooking, heating, and open flame (Figure 12 and Table 5) 

increases during this period. This is not surprising due to holiday cooking and the more prevalent use of home fireplaces, displays, and decorations involving candles (Figure 13). The daily 

incidence of candle−started fires nearly quadruples on Christmas Day. One dangerous scenario 

is that wrappings are thrown near a fireplace, embers fall on the paper, and the Christmas tree 

or other nearby flammables ignite. 

0 5 10 15 20 25 

Cooking 

Heating 

Open Flame 

Incendiary/Suspicious 

Other Heat 

Exposure 

Smoking 

Appliances 

Electrical Distribution 

Other Equipment 

Natural 

Children Playing 

(Average 2001–2002) 

Percent 

Christmas 

Figure 12. Causes of Christmas Fires 

Holiday Season 

The total average dollar loss for December 24, 25, and 26 is nearly $92 million. These 

losses are the result of an estimated 12,600 fires requiring a fire department response. These 

fires are estimated to result in an average of 205 injuries and 34 fatalities. The use of alcohol and 

other substances may certainly play a role in increasing fire incidence during the winter holiday 

season. This is especially true with New Year’s Eve fires, as New Year’s Eve is widely celebrated 

with higher−than−usual consumption of alcohol. Like Christmas, the fire losses due to New 

Year’s celebrations are high. 

On December 31 and January 1, there are 55 fatalities and 160 injuries resulting from fire, 

and property loss is also estimated to be $92 million. Cooking is the leading cause of fires on 

New Year’s Eve and heating is the leading cause of New Year’s Day fires (Figure 14). Incendiary 

or suspicious fires account for 19 percent of fires on New Year’s Eve and decrease to 17 percent 

of fires on New Year’s Day, slightly below the proportion for an average holiday day. 

17 
0 

50 

100 

150 

200 

250 

Incidents 

Fires Caused by Candles 

(Estimated Average 2001–2002) 

Jan 1Jan 15Jan 29Feb 12Feb 26Mar 11Mar 25Apr 8Apr 22May 6May 20Jun 3Jun 17Jul 1 Jul 15Jul 29Aug 12Aug 26Sep 9Sep 23Oct 7Oct 21Nov 4Nov 18Dec 2Dec 16Dec 30

Figure 13. 

0 5 10 15 20 25 

Heating 

Incendiary/Suspicious 

Other Heat 

Cooking 

Open Flame 

Exposure 

Smoking 

Appliances 

Electrical Distribution 

Other Equipment 

Children Playing 

Natural 

Causes of New Year’s Fires 

(Average 2001–2002) 

Percent 

Figure 14. 

Holiday Season Average 

New Year’s Eve 

New Year’s Day 

18

Conclusion 

Armed with an understanding of the nature and scope of seasonal fires, the fire service has 

the opportunity to plan and implement specific public education, fire prevention, and other 

fire−related programs that address seasonal changes in fire incidence. Communities are 

encouraged to analyze their own seasonal and holiday fire incidence to determine how prevention initiatives and programs could best be targeted. It appears that much of the seasonality of 

fires is due to common behaviors and causes that are repeated each year. These repetitive causes 

and behaviors are candidates for clearly targeted prevention initiatives and programs. Locally as 

well as nationally, these initiatives and programs could have a major impact on the reduction of 

fire incidence. 

19