1 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov The Parker Ranch installation in Hawaii 

# BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM

Distribution Transformers Energy Conservation Program LBNL Staff on behalf of U.S. Department of Energy Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy



## November 30, 20112 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Draft **Life**

**- Cycle Cost, Payback Period and National Impacts Analysis**  **Results for Medium Voltage Liquid**

**- Immersed Transformers**  **Based on 2010 Material Prices**

Prepared for the Medium Voltage Distribution Transformers Negotiated Rulemaking Working Group

November 30, 2011

**Contents**

• Engineering Results for Design Lines 1 - 5

• Life

- Cycle Cost Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• Payback Period Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• National Impacts Results by TSL for Equipment Classes 1 & 2 

# Contents3 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 1: Engineering Results

$1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000 $3,500 $4,000

99.00% 99.10% 99.20% 99.30% 99.40% 99.50% 99.60%Manufacturer Selling Price ($)

Efficiency at 50% Load, Temperature Corrected M5_CuAl_dgw_sh M3_AlAl_dgw_sh M3_CuAl_dgw_sh M2_AlAl_dgw_sh M2_CuAl_dgw_sh ZDMH_AlAl_dgw_sh ZDMH_CuCu_dgw_sh SA1_AlAl_dgw_sh SA1_CuCu_dgw_sh
CSLs CSL 0 2007 FR CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 64 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 2: Engineering Results

$500 $1,000 $1,500 $2,000 $2,500 $3,000

98.80% 98.90% 99.00% 99.10% 99.20% 99.30% 99.40% 99.50% 99.60%Manufacturer Selling Price ($)

Efficiency at 50% Load, Temperature Corrected M5_CuAl_dgw_sh M4_AlAl_dgw_sh M4_CuAl_dgw_sh M3_AlAl_dgw_sh M3_CuAl_dgw_sh M2_AlAl_dgw_sh M2_CuAl_dgw_sh ZDMH_AlAl_dgw_sh ZDMH_CuCu_dgw_sh SA1_AlAl_dgw_co SA1_CuCu_dgw_co
CSLs CSL 0 2007 FR CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 75 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 3: Engineering Results

$

- $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $25,000

99.40% 99.45% 99.50% 99.55% 99.60% 99.65% 99.70% 99.75% 99.80%Manufacturer Selling Price ($)

Efficiency at 50% Load, Temperature Corrected M5_CuAl_dgw_sh M4_AlAl_dgw_sh M4_CuAl_dgw_sh M3_AlAl_dgw_sh M3_CuAl_dgw_sh M2_AlAl_dgw_sh M2_CuAl_dgw_sh ZDMH_AlAl_dgw_sh ZDMH_CuCu_dgw_sh SA1_AlAl_dgw_co SA1_CuCu_dgw_sh SA1_CuCu_dgw_co
CSLs CSL 0 2007 FR CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 76 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 4: Engineering Results

$2,500 $3,500 $4,500 $5,500 $6,500 $7,500 $8,500 $9,500 $10,500 $11,500

99.00% 99.10% 99.20% 99.30% 99.40% 99.50% 99.60% 99.70%Manufacturer Selling Price ($)

Efficiency at 50% Load, Temperature Corrected M5_CuAl_dgw_5leg M3_AlAl_dgw_5leg M3_CuAl_dgw_5leg M2_AlAl_dgw_5leg M2_CuAl_dgw_5leg ZDMH_AlAl_dgw_5leg ZDMH_CuCu_dgw_5leg SA1_AlAl_dgw_5leg SA1_CuCu_dgw_5leg
CSLs CSL 0 2007 FR CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 77 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 5: Engineering Results

$15,000 $25,000 $35,000 $45,000 $55,000 $65,000

99.40% 99.45% 99.50% 99.55% 99.60% 99.65% 99.70% 99.75%Manufacturer Selling Price ($)

Efficiency at 50% Load, Temperature Corrected M4_CuAl_dgw_5leg M3_AlAl_dgw_5leg M3_CuAl_dgw_5leg M2_AlAl_dgw_5leg M2_CuAl_dgw_5leg ZDMH_AlAl_dgw_5leg ZDMH_CuCu_dgw_5leg SA1_AlAl_dgw_5leg SA1_CuCu_dgw_5leg
CSLs CSL 0 2007 FR CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 68 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 1 LCC Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Efficiency (%) 99.16% 99.22% 99.25% 99.31% 99.42% 99.50% Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 53.70% 3.70% 3.70% 5.80% 9.80% 47.60% Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 0.10% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 46.20% 96.20% 96.20% 94.20% 90.20% 52.40% Mean LCC Savings ($) 79 715 715 616 741 172 Median LCC Savings ($) -25 724 724 620 687 35

- 1500 - 1000

- 500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6**Average LCC Savings ($)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 1 Average LCC Savings Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average9 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 2 LCC Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Efficiency (%) 99.00% 99.07% 99.11% 99.18% 99.31% 99.41% 99.46% Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 21.00% 21.10% 28.90% 31.10% 51.80% 72.70% 83.70% Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 79.00% 78.90% 71.10% 68.90% 48.20% 27.30% 16.30% Mean LCC Savings ($) 250 104 -130 -182 -378 -628 -860 Median LCC Savings ($) 324 319 254 222 -27 -324 -580

- 4000 - 3500 - 3000 - 2500 - 2000 - 1500 - 1000

- 500 0 500 1000 1500

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7**Average LCC Savings ($)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 2 Average LCC Savings Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average10 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 3 LCC Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Efficiency (%) 99.48% 99.51% 99.54% 99.57% 99.61% 99.69% 99.73% Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 11.60% 9.30% 4.60% 4.10% 4.60% 9.80% 27.00% Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 1.10% 1.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 87.30% 89.60% 95.40% 95.90% 95.40% 90.20% 73.00% Mean LCC Savings ($) 3163 4378 5255 5612 6531 6702 3955 Median LCC Savings ($) 2507 4469 5305 5576 6670 6453 3193

- 4000 - 2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7**Average LCC Savings ($)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 3 Average LCC Savings Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average11 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 4 LCC Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Efficiency (%) 99.16% 99.22% 99.25% 99.31% 99.42% 99.50% 99.60% Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 1.20% 2.80% 2.80% 2.70% 2.30% 4.60% 25.10% Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 1.00% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 97.80% 96.20% 96.20% 96.30% 97.40% 95.40% 69.10% Mean LCC Savings ($) 1122 3536.9 3536.9 3544.7 3654.3 3629 1907 Median LCC Savings ($) 896 3597.4 3597.4 3597.4 3710.6 3463 1527

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7**Average LCC Savings ($)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 4 Average LCC Savings Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average12 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 5 LCC Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Efficiency (%) 99.48% 99.51% 99.54% 99.57% 99.61% 99.69% Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 14.60% 9.60% 7.20% 6.10% 8.70% 42.40% Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 85.20% 90.40% 92.80% 93.90% 91.30% 57.60% Mean LCC Savings ($) 9819 12108 12860 13566 13053 2525 Median LCC Savings ($) 9648 12287 12900 13273 12739 2190

- 30000 - 20000 - 10000 0 10000 20000 30000

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6**Average LCC Savings ($)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 5 Average LCC Savings Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average13 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 1 PBP Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mean Payback (Years) 29.2 7.2 7.2 9.4 10.9 18.8 Median Payback (Years) 18.5 6.9 6.9 9.0 10.5 17.8 Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 88.60% 99.90% 99.90% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 11.40% 0.10% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% Mean Retail Cost ($) 2,382 2,490 2,490 2,597 2,853 3,402 Mean Installation Costs ($) 2,228 2,271 2,271 2,344 2,414 2,606 Mean Operating Costs ($) 212 162 162 158 136 129 Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 345 496 496 676 1,002 1,742 Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 22 71 71 75 97 104 Payback of Average Transformer 15.9 7.0 7.0 9.0 10.3 16.7

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6**Average Payback Period (years)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line1 Average Payback Period Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average14 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 2 PBP Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Payback (Years) 11.5 15.3 21.3 22.8 27.2 31.4 34.6 Median Payback (Years) 5.4 7.1 9.2 11.2 17.3 22.8 26.9 Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 96.20% 99.50% 99.50% 99.60% 99.50% 99.60% 99.60% Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 3.80% 0.50% 0.50% 0.40% 0.50% 0.40% 0.40% Mean Retail Cost ($) 1,465 1,509 1,560 1,629 1,884 2,091 2,612 Mean Installation Costs ($) 1782 2019 2254 2338 2513 2665 2462 Mean Operating Costs ($) 110 102 100 95 83 78 73 Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 232 512 799 952 1,382 1,741 2,059 Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 30 37 39 45 56 61 66 Payback of Average Transformer 7.8 13.8 20.3 21.4 24.7 28.3 31.2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7**Average Payback Period (years)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 2 Average Payback Period Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average15 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 3 PBP Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Payback (Years) 5.1 4.3 5.2 5.2 6.1 10.3 16.7 Median Payback (Years) 3.1 2.6 3.7 3.9 4.7 7.9 13.4 Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 93.20% 96.40% 99.90% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 99.50% Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 6.80% 3.60% 0.10% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.50% Mean Retail Cost ($) 9,008 9,139 9,716 9,863 10,488 12,764 16,269 Mean Installation Costs ($) 4,243 4,252 4,371 4,402 4,524 4,997 5,680 Mean Operating Costs ($) 1,128 1,044 965 938 855 714 650 Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 763 904 1,599 1,777 2,524 5,273 9,461 Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 249 333 413 439 522 664 728 Payback of Average Transformer 3.1 2.7 3.9 4.0 4.8 7.9 13.0

0 5 10 15 20 25

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7**Average Payback Period (years)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 3 Average Payback Period Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average16 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 4 PBP Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean Payback (Years) 2.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.9 7.8 14.7 Median Payback (Years) 2.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.5 7.2 14.0 Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 98.70% 98.40% 98.40% 98.60% 99.70% 100.00% 94.20% Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 1.30% 1.60% 1.60% 1.40% 0.30% 0.00% 0.00% Mean Retail Cost ($) 6,031 6,553 6,553 6,562 6,655 7,752 10,737 Mean Installation Costs ($) 4,042 4,181 4,181 4,180 4,221 4,581 4,709 Mean Operating Costs ($) 668 486 486 485 472 402 336 Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 185 846 846 854 988 2,445 5,561 Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 77 260 260 261 273 343 415 Payback of Average Transformer 2.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.6 7.1 13.4

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6 EL 7**Average Payback Period (years)**

**Efficiency Level** Design Line 4 Average Payback Period Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median

average17 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Design Line 5 PBP Results

Efficiency Level 1 2 3 4 5 6 Mean Payback (Years) 5.3 5.4 6.6 7.1 9.2 18.6 Median Payback (Years) 3.2 3.5 5.1 5.8 7.9 16.7 Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 91.20% 96.70% 99.10% 99.80% 100.00% 100.00% Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 8.80% 3.30% 0.90% 0.20% 0.00% 0.00% Mean Retail Cost ($) 29,078 29,605 31,424 32,543 36,055 57,368 Mean Installation Costs ($) 8,516 8,636 8,875 9,032 9,497 9,835 Mean Operating Costs ($) 3,423 3,262 3,106 2,996 2,804 2,186 Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 2,293 2,940 4,998 6,274 10,250 31,902 Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 671 832 987 1,098 1,290 1,907 Payback of Average Transformer 3.4 3.5 5.1 5.7 7.9 16.7

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 EL 5 EL 6**Average Payback Period (years)**

**Efficiency Level** 

### Design Line 5 Average Payback Period Average; Median; Box 25%

- 75%; Whisker 5%

- 95% median
average18 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

### Equipment Class (EC) 1 **EC 2**
**DL1 DL2**  **DL3 DL4**  **DL5**
**TSL1** EL 5 EL 1 EL 6 EL 5 EL 4 **TSL2** EL 6 EL 2 EL 7 EL 7 EL 6 **TSL3** EL 3 EL 3 EL 3 EL 3 EL 5 **TSL4** EL 3 EL 1 EL 3 EL 2 EL 2 **TSL5** EL 4 EL 3 EL 4 EL 3 EL 4 **TSL6** EL 6 EL 7 EL 7 EL 7 EL 6 

# Proposed Trial Standard Levels and Mapping of TSLs to ELs

The following draft Trial Standard Levels are presented for discussion.
Draft Trial Standard Levels (TSLs) Description 1. Minimum LCC / Max NPV 2. Max Energy Savings with positive (or near zero) NPV at 3% discount rate 3. 30% Reduction in Operating Costs 4. Materials constraint (greatest LCC Savings with M3 steel available as a design option) 5. Materials constraint plus (gap

- fill between TSL 4 and TSL 6) 6. Maximum Technology19 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# National Impacts Results for MV Liquid

Immersed, by Trial Standard Level

Summary Results by TSL for Liquid

- Immersed Transformers



# Draft Trial Standard Levels (TSLs) Description 1. Minimum LCC / Max NPV 2. Max Energy Savings with positive (or near zero) NPV at 3% discount rate 3. 30% Reduction in Operating Costs 4. Materials constraint (greatest LCC Savings with M3 steel available as a design option) 5. Materials constraint plus (gap

- fill between TSL 4 and TSL 6) 6. Maximum Technology Trial Standard Level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 1.95 1.94 1.92 1.94 1.95 1.94 1.91 Equipment Cost ($Billions) 65.16 -8.48 -25.63 -13.81 -5.67 -13.14 -41.42 Operating Cost Savings ($Billions) 78.12 22.56 32.33 23.88 18.71 22.83 38.88 Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 1.46 2.25 1.57 1.15 1.48 2.78 Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 14.09 6.699 10.07 13.04 9.70 -2.54 Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 2.85 -3.07 0.51 3.17 0.55 -9.2520 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Summary Results by TSL for Equipment Class 1 

# National Impacts Results for MV Liquid

Immersed, by Trial Standard Level

Summary Results by TSL for Equipment Class 2 Trial Standard Level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.79 0.79 Equipment Cost ($Billions) 45.01 -5.63 -10.88 -9.86 -3.98 -10.41 -26.68 Operating Cost Savings ($Billions) 39.29 11.61 13.64 11.88 9.78 12.14 20.19 Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.76 0.92 0.78 0.61 0.80 1.46 Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 5.99 2.76 2.02 5.80 1.73 -6.48 Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.81 -1.30 -1.27 1.13 -1.48 -7.48

Trial Standard Level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 1.15 1.15 1.13 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.13 Equipment Cost ($Billions) 20.14 -2.85 -14.75 -3.95 -1.69 -2.73 -14.75 Operating Cost Savings ($Billions) 38.82 10.95 18.69 12.00 8.93 10.69 18.69 Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.70 1.32 0.79 0.54 0.68 1.32 Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 8.10 3.94 8.05 7.23 7.97 3.94 Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 2.04 -1.77 1.78 2.04 2.03 -1.7721 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# National Impacts Results for MV Liquid

- Immersed, by Efficiency Level

Summary Results by Efficiency Level for Liquid

- Immersed Transformers

Efficiency Level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 1.95 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.91 Equipment Cost ($Billions) 65.16 -4.38 -8.56 -12.19 -14.71 -21.47 -35.31 -41.42 Operating Cost ($ Billions) 78.12 11.79 20.16 21.82 24.00 29.69 36.69 38.88 Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.71 1.26 1.40 1.57 2.04 2.61 2.78 Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 7.41 11.598 9.63 9.29 8.22 1.38 -2.54 Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 1.61 2.12 0.745 0.09 -1.727 -6.77 -9.2522 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov 

# Summary Results by EL for Equipment Class 1 

# National Impacts Results for MV Liquid

- Immersed, by Efficiency Level

Summary Results by E L for Equipment Class 2 Efficiency Level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 Equipment Cost ($Billions) 45.01 -3.50 -6.87 -9.86 -11.98 -17.39 -23.33 -26.68 Operating Cost ($ Billions) 39.29 7.00 11.23 11.88 13.30 17.43 19.22 20.19 Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.44 0.72 0.78 0.89 1.23 1.38 1.46 Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 3.50 4.36 2.02 1.31 0.04 -4.11 -6.48 Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.46 0.08 -1.27 -1.95 -3.52 -6.06 -7.48

Efficiency Level Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Transformer Shipments 2015

- 2044 (Billion KVA) 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.13 1.13 Equipment Cost ($Billions) 20.14 -0.89 -1.69 -2.33 -2.73 -4.08 -11.98 -14.75 Operating Cost ($ Billions) 38.82 4.79 8.93 9.94 10.71 12.26 17.48 18.69 Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.26 0.54 0.62 0.68 0.81 1.23 1.32 Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 3.91 7.23 7.61 7.98 8.18 5.50 3.94 Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 1.15 2.04 2.02 2.03 1.79 -0.71 -1.77