Toward More Resilient Futures:

Putting Foresight Into Practice

Highlights from the Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) 

0D\ 2013 
Join the SFI Community

FEMA is but one member of the emergency management community. The Strategic 

Foresight Initiative (SFI) exists due to the participation of a diverse network of more than 

900 individuals from across the United States and the international community. Since 2010 

SFI has engaged all levels of government, non-profits, businesses, and individuals. The SFI 

community spans a broad range of fields and disciplines, and includes both emergency 

management professionals and members of the general public. 

FEMA is dedicated to creating space for collaboration and dialogue around the future of 

disaster management and our community’s future strategic needs. To this end, SFI has and 

will continue to use various media, virtual collaboration tools, and in-person meetings or 

conferences to promote engagement. 

We invite you to get involved or deepen your engagement with SFI. For more information 

and materials, check out our website: 

www.fema.gov/strategic-planning-analysis-spa-division/strategic-foresight-initiative 

We rely on the community to identify new ideas, highlight examples of future-looking best 

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Contents Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Note from David Kaufman, 

FEMA Associate Administrator for Policy, Program Analysis, 

and International Affairs

Launched in 2010, SFI is a 

transformative, community-wide 

effort to create an enduring 

foresight capability. SFI seeks to 

catalyze two outcomes: 

• an emergency management 

community positioned and 

prepared for whatever 

challenges the future holds, 

• a common sense of direction 

and urgency, to drive action 

toward meeting our shared 

future needs—starting today. 

Recap of 2012 & + 

A Look Ahead

4 – Review of Major SFI 2012 

Activities and Accomplishments.............Page 32 

5 – Outlook for SFI in 2013.........................Page 35 

Features + 

1 – Sustaining Foresight.................................Page 1

2 – Future Strategic Needs in Practice..........Page 12

3 – Big Issues. Strong Leaders. Bold Action. Page 23

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) May 2013 

This document builds on the foundation of last year’s capstone Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) report. 

In the Crisis Response and Disaster Resilience 2030 report, SFI established a framework for foresight: 

deepening our understanding of the forces driving change in emergency management (EM) and 

delivering insights into the capabilities, tools, and partnerships needed for success in the future.

With Toward More Resilient Futures, we take another step forward as we seek to apply our collective 

foresight toward more resilient futures. This step moves us beyond the analytical world of process and 

“theory” toward the real world of practice. And this focus on practical applications is the cornerstone of 

this document—distilled into the three parts of the Features. Each Feature has a specific aim.

• Sustaining Foresight: to spark future-thinking and discussion about recent key trends, and what they 

may signal for America over the coming years – Page 1

• Future Strategic Needs in Practice: to spotlight efforts from the Whole Community that exemplify 

how we can develop the capabilities, tools, and partnerships to meet our future needs – Page 12

• Big Issues. Strong Leaders. Bold Action: to inspire our community into action by profiling innovators 

working to solve big problems and make our Nation more resilient – Page 23 

The document closes with a brief recap of SFI’s recent work and an outlook for what’s next. We hope that 

you have fun with this document, and get engaged or deepen your involvement with this project.

About SFI

• Analysis of key emerging themes

• Research highlights from SFI Issue Papers

• Ten anecdotes from the field: examples of 

independent efforts that fulfill strategic needs 

and help make our Nation more resilient

• Seven profiles from the Whole Community: 

innovators discuss the future and share ideas 

that can lead us toward greater resilience

Appendix ..................................Page 37 

Image courtesy of Flickr user Stuck in Customs

Image courtesy of NASA/Marshall Space Flight Center
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Feature Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Overview of this Feature

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In this Feature...

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight | Page 1

This feature seeks to spark future-thinking and discussion about key trends, and what they may signal 

for America in the coming years. It uses a tool called scenario planning, a common method used by 

organizations like the U.S. National Intelligence Council. By considering a broad range of alternative 

possibilities for the future, scenario planning helps account for the unpredictability of real life. Instead of 

simply assuming that there’s one “most likely” future, we should critically assess how an uncertain 

future may play out in many different ways. We do this by analyzing a wide spectrum of drivers like 

technology and socio-economic factors, drivers that may fundamentally change the way the world 

works. Understanding what our future needs will be requires us to stretch our imaginations and explore 

the underlying forces of change—seeking to be more prepared, regardless of how the future unfolds.

In Feature 1, we packaged this scenario planning analysis into a narrative approach to make it more 

interesting and accessible. We offer four themes covering the following dimensions: Economic, 

Environmental, Technological, and Security. These themes draw from, but are not themselves the five 

scenario “worlds” SFI used in our 20-year assessment of the future environment (see notes). They are

not FEMA policy or official positions. They are simply plausible dynamics the Whole Community 

may need to contend with in the future. Within each theme are two storylines that are structured like a 

“devil’s advocate” argument, where we imagine how various converging trends may play out to change 

the future of disaster management. In the end, we hope to spark long-term and innovative thinking as to 

how the Whole Community can better prepare for emerging challenges and opportunities.

1 – Sustaining 

Foresight

In Crisis Response and Disaster 

Resilience 2030, SFI identified 

nine major drivers of change 

shaping our strategic 

environment. The themes in this 

Feature capture key elements of 

all nine SFI drivers.

The analysis here draws upon a 

robust scenario-building exercise 

developed as part of the SFI 

process. For more detail about 

the development of the “emerging 

themes,” visit Appendix A; for 

references, visit Appendix C.

Notes

Image courtesy of www.stockfreeimages.com

For further reading, click on any of the over 100 

hyperlinks in this section to explore relevant and 

accessible source materials

• Analysis of emerging themes ...........Page 2

• Research highlights from SFI

Issue Papers................................Page 10
The brighter side places the United States on the cusp of a technological and industrial 

renaissance. Advances in information technology and social networks will combine with 

American ingenuity to transform business, government, and society at-large. The recent 

financial crisis and recession, while deeply painful, is considered more of a temporary 

phenomenon. The economy is moving toward a sustainable recovery. The United States 

still draws the world’s top talent to its universities, remains a hub for innovation, and 

promotes a top-tier competitiveness environment for business. "Big data" drives smarter 

decisions and uncovers new value in existing businesses. The economics of globalization 

are starting to shift, making America a place in which to invest and produce again. 

On the darker end, while the economy is bouncing back from the financial crisis, there 

are concerns that the current challenges are deep and structural. Gone are the 

economic dynamics that underpinned vast improvements in living standards in the 

United States between World War II and the 1970s. And in a globalized, interconnected 

world, there is no substitute for the “rising tide” of a dynamic U.S. economy. Some 

experts argue we’ve consumed most of the “low-hanging fruit” that’s enabled our longterm growth. American stock markets may be surging, but unemployment remains at 

historically high levels. Concerns remain over high debt, middle-class job security, weak 

GDP growth, and fewer booming industries. The wild cards of potential financial market 

volatility, a Eurozone breakup, and other global shocks only worsen the downside risks. 

key trends

The American Revival 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 2

vs key trends

The Great Stagnation 

Driving innovation Silicon Valley remains the world’s mecca and 

benchmark for innovation—having mastered the “startup ecosystem.” 

America is a leader in producing cutting-edge breakthroughs. Major 

companies like Apple and Google are only the best-known of an expanding pack of 

dynamic U.S. firms. The culture of innovation is spreading to government, boosting 

the efficacy of public services. In addition, automation and advances in manufacturing 

are shifting competitive advantages back to the United States, with substantial spillover benefits across the entire economy—particularly in old Rust Belt areas once 

seen as irreversibly in decline. 

Hardening inequality Many measures reveal a growing gap 

between the so-called haves and have-nots: concentration of income at 

the top, high levels of youth unemployment, and growing gaps in life

expectancy between the rich and poor, among many others. A stagnant economy and 

political gridlock tend to reinforce these disparities. Lack of long-term investment in 

health services and education will only exacerbate these trends. Long-lasting 

inequality can seriously increase social risks that may heighten the vulnerability of

communities to disasters, particularly for groups who lack “emergency” resources. 

Slow job recoveries The last three economic recoveries have 

produced historically lower job growth—raising questions about the longerterm economic landscape. Technology, automation, and competition from

abroad have displaced many American jobs. Our education system is struggling to fill 

the “skills gap” in many sectors. Technology appears to be booming, but unlike 

traditional manufacturing and many service industries, this sector does not create 

enough jobs to rebuild the middle class. 

Taming the deficit Leading economists assert that improving 

underlying conditions in the U.S. economy, led by a resurgent housing 

market and gains in the labor market, indicate a likely acceleration in 

economic growth in 2013. Sustained growth can help shrink deficits and make the 

national debt manageable again. There’s hope this can ultimately lead to expansive 

thinking. And ultimately action about big national challenges like education, 

healthcare, critical infrastructure, global competitiveness, and the environment. 

ECONOMY

The U.S. economy may be at a major inflection point—with our future prospects

 playing out along two starkly different yet interconnected narratives.

Background image courtesy of Logan Lindquist Background image courtesy of Deviant Art user KittenKiss
• More of the U.S. population would be vulnerable to disasters if the 

Nation undergoes a prolonged period of slow growth characterized by strained 

fiscal resources and reduced social services. This may lower community resilience, 

which means that when disasters do occur, their impacts are felt disproportionately 

among a larger population—resulting in prolonged disaster recoveries. 

• Slow growth would exacerbate debt and deficit pressures on the economy and 

in turn feed a national sense of limitation—leaving little scope for bold new projects. 

A tough job market would force more workers to rely on part-time or contract work 

with minimal benefits. Fewer citizens would be able to volunteer in key public 

service activities. Under chronic fiscal pressures, U.S. infrastructure would continue 

to decay, “patch-and-repair” practices would prevail over large-scale improvements, 

and managers at all levels would operate with scarce resources. 

implications for government and emergency management implications for government and emergency management

vs • Strong, sustained economic growth would ease fiscal pressures at all levels 

of government, enabling policymakers to tackle big-ticket problems like infrastructure 

in an integrated fashion. Adopting solutions that address safety, efficiency, and 

environmental considerations all at once. As a beacon for global talent and ambition, 

the United States would continue to provide a healthy climate for innovative thinking 

and entrepreneurial risk-taking. Rising immigration would boost the tax-base and the 

population pyramid, but cities may struggle to expand services for new immigrants. 

• Over time, fiscal reform, job recovery, and stable growth would free up 

resources for new hires, equipment purchases, and investment in capabilities. While 

officials may gain scope to plan for big projects related to infrastructure and disaster 

resilience, government would need to compete to attract technical talent. The growth 

of technology and consumer applications raise the public’s expectations of 

government. New housing patterns and urban growth may present fresh challenges for 

emergency managers, as they attempt to serve immigrant populations that are less 

connected with traditional outreach channels. 

takeaways

Interoperability is likely to be even more important when it comes to 

sharing capital goods, systems, and people in this highly interdependent 

environment. There is a heightened risk of environmental disaster if regulatory 

constraints are eased or if enforcement is diminished. There is likely a strong need 

to revisit post-disaster planning to ensure that response and recovery goals are 

realistic. This is especially true given the potential for lower resilience in 

communities and among a greater number of Americans vulnerable to disaster. 

takeaways

Inter-agency cooperation is likely to be essential, pushing officials to 

come together to better serve the needs of the community throughout all phases of 

disasters. This may involve partnering with community organizations trusted by hardto-reach immigrant populations. Fiscally, there is a risk that recent gains made in costefficiency and regional resource-sharing may backslide. A growing economy may again 

lead to development in high-risk or resource-scarce regions.

Pent-up capacity A future flood of investments from companies with 

strong cashflows may help unleash a new cycle of economic growth and 

create demand for workers. The housing market is rebounding; consumers 

have shed a lot of debt and are spending again. The resulting rise in government 

coffers may enable the delivery of essential services and improve the business 

environment. Together, these forces could spark a resurgence of economic activity. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 3

underlying structures of resilience, such as healthcare and essential social services. 

These constraints further delay long-term investment in critical infrastructure projects. 

Money problems The struggling economy has further squeezed

budgets across all levels of government. Austere fiscal conditions are likely 

to extend into the foreseeable future. This could have serious impacts on the 

critical infrastructure to education investment. The Nation must work on systemic

challenges together in order to resolve persistent issues to resolve persistent issues, 

including disaster-specific ones like misguided incentives that encourage development in 

hazardous areas and contribute to “repeat loss events.” The fear is that we may seed the 

next crises with delayed action and band-aid solutions. 

The end of big thinking There are real consequences to the 

partisanship of our political system. It is increasingly difficult to garner the 

consensus needed to pursue essential government projects, from critical 

including government. Success of public-private partnerships and competitive grant 

programs like the Department of Education’s Race to the Top point to innovative ways

to deliver essential services, even through tougher times. 

Resourcefulness The tightened budget environment has driven 

greater efficiency and focus on performance and outcomes. This shift is 

driving action that achieves “more with less” throughout all sectors, 
While severe weather remains a major threat, opposing dynamics propel the United 

States to make the best of a difficult situation. Recovery efforts in New York and New 

Jersey after Hurricane Sandy, for example, were buoyed by improved remote-sensing

data and new technology that sped up the distribution of relief funds. The wide-spread 

damage from Hurricane Sandy forced government to seriously focus on adaptation 

planning and reducing risk exposure. Relatedly, research shows that growing first-hand 

experience with extreme weather impacts increases public support for climate action. 

While weather and climate are not synonymous, the public continues to link the two 

ideas, complicating outreach efforts. Meanwhile, states, cities, and businesses are 

instituting collaborative efforts to tackle climate change adaptation and improve 

mitigation. This path, therefore, has silver-linings: the challenges posed by climate 

change encourage collective, cost-effective actions, which bolster disaster resilience. 

Considering the environmental landscape, two forces are combining to increase the 

Nation’s risks to natural hazards. First, the frequency of extreme weather is 

accelerating, with events like Hurricane Sandy threatening to become the norm. 

Secondly, fiscal pressure and political gridlock has resulted in piece-meal action to 

mitigate future risks and adapt to the growing dangers. Meanwhile, critical 

infrastructure is undermined by extreme weather and overburdened by increased use. 

Insurance companies are increasingly pulling out of risky areas, leaving the public to 

address the increased risk. This trajectory points to higher vulnerability for the Nation, 

unless we move now to take substantive preventive and adaptive action. 

key trends

Making Lemonade 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 4

vs key trends

Out of the Frying Pan 

Unforeseen accelerations 2012 was the warmest year ever

recorded in the contiguous United States since the first weather records 

began in 1895. In summer 2012, Arctic sea ice shrunk to its smallest 

extent on record, melting at a much faster rate than scientists anticipated. In the future, 

melting permafrost and thinning ice are expected to further accelerate warming by 

mechanisms and magnitudes that are difficult to predict with scientific models. This 

raises concerns that climate models underestimated the rate of warming and sea-level 

rise observed to date, raising prospects that climate change impacts will be felt faster. 

No drive to act At the 2012 climate meeting in Doha, Qatar, 

negotiators were unable to forge an emissions reduction agreement that 

would keep global temperature increases below 2°C—a threshold that 

most climate scientists believe is on the outer bounds of “safe” warming. Without 

meaningful action to reduce emissions today, scientists believe impacts will increase 

in magnitude over the medium and long-term, with temperatures potentially reaching 

4-6°C by the end of this century. 

expected to initially increase crop yields in North America (with strong variations). In 

the long run, food production may suffer from shifts in temperature and rainfall. 

Emissions in the sensitive Arctic may further accelerate the rate of melting and 

warming, especially with added pressures from burning oil and gas uncovered in the 

region. But for now, these momentary positive impacts are being exploited. 

(Momentary) positives Melting sea ice opened new Arctic shipping 

routes and enabled extraction of useful minerals and oil deposits. Changes 

like increased atmospheric CO2 and a decline in the number of frost days 

Catalyzing events Hurricane Sandy, the worst U.S. drought in a halfcentury, and the 2012 Colorado wildfires brought new attention to the topic 

of climate change. In the same vein that public opinion shifts with growing 

exposure to severe weather, recent events demonstrated the need to further embrace 

a more forward-looking and adaptive position. The drive to implement an integrated 

approach to reducing risk exposure now influences rebuilding decisions for housing 

and infrastructure. Relatedly, the modeling and management of risk is changing, and 

stronger design standards are being developed. 

ENVIRONMENT

The forces of global environmental change are expected to bring major challenges and new opportunities to the United States. 

How we choose to cope with them may well be the biggest unknown we face. 

Background image courtesy of Flickr user grongar 
 The acceleration in warming and melting rates are indicators that 

warrant better preparation for and mitigation of extreme events. Storm surge, 

flooding, and heat wave threats, in particular, require costly, large-scale and longterm infrastructure improvements now. But scientific uncertainty combined with 

relatively low public concern may make it difficult to prepare and plan. 

 More housing development in increasingly risky areas, combined 

with the reduction in private insurance services, would seriously impact individual 

and community resilience. After disasters, government faces immense pressure to 

step in and provide assistance. As a result, certain areas prone to disaster have 

historically been buffered by federal insurance programs and post-disaster relief 

and rebuilding funds. With the anticipated increase in the frequency and magnitude 

of extreme events, policies, programs and decision-making that limit risk and 

exposure prior to a hazardous event will become even more important. 

implications for government and emergency management

implications for government and emergency management

vs

 Weather is not synonymous with climate, as scientists often remind us. 

With individual weather events as the basis for climate change concern, there is a 

risk that public commitment to action could turn to apathy if weather patterns 

change. This “recency effect” can complicate public outreach and activity because it 

may dilute consideration of the complexity and uncertainty inherent in the science of 

climate change. While a lot of national adaptation measures are driven from the top, 

resulting from federal action or mandates, cities and states will continue to play a 

big, and possibly leading role. Emergency managers at all levels may be called 

upon to support grassroots efforts adapt to climate change. 

 Increased traffic in the Arctic represents a range of new challenges. The 

resource-richness of the region attracts energy exploration, and economic factors 

attract new commercial passage. But harsh weather conditions, floating ice, and 

lack of communications and rescue infrastructure impose new risks on both people 

and the environment. Managing environmental catastrophes or emergency 

operations are likely to be daunting tasks.

takeaways

The growing consensus is that current harsh weather conditions will likely 

worsen, and that warming and sea-level rise estimates are conservative. Integrating 

and further institutionalizing catastrophic planning efforts, like FEMA’s ‘Maximum of 

Maximums’ initiative, across the Whole Community can be a great starting point. 

Updating local building standards and codes to higher standards of resilience are just 

a few examples of good risk management. A critical reexamination of the policies and 

incentives that subsidize settlement in dangerous areas is also needed. 

takeaways

If public support for climate adaptation waivers, multi-faceted solutions 

will be needed. With the mounting impacts of harsher, potentially more frequent severe 

weather, such solutions should contribute to both climate resilience and other national 

goals (e.g., a more modern, efficient infrastructure). As the Arctic becomes a more 

economically active area, ensuring safety and resilience in these physically 

challenging environments requires better planning for more robust disaster 

management infrastructure. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 5

In many ways, the U.S. power grid may be the most fragile. Events like 2012’s 

derecho storm that left 1.2 million in the Washington, DC-area without power during a 

heat wave highlight the growing risks to infrastructure from more extreme weather. 

Critical infrastructure Beyond risks from events like hurricanes, our 

18 critical infrastructure sectors are also vulnerable to other environmental 

changes, especially heat waves—the deadliest domestic natural hazard. 

Increasing exposure Homeowners’ growing desire for access to 

natural amenities has led to more development in areas with more 

exposure to extreme events (coastlines, wildland-urban interface). This 

negatively impacts the insurance industry—a key component of individual resilience. 

As companies seek to limit their risk, they’re seeing more homes as uninsurable. As 

extreme events become more frequent, individuals, communities, and governments 

are forced to manage the complex trade-offs regarding the increased risk exposure. 

Green sprouts The growing success of new initiatives built around 

“green” products in countries like China and India has gathered 

international attention. Meanwhile, homegrown local, state, and industrylevel programs to curb emissions domestically have begun to show that the economic 

impact of greenhouse gas mitigation could, in fact, be positive. These successes 

fortify arguments for broader-scale climate change action, and put pressure on 

businesses and policymakers to keep up with international competition. 

to take bold action—responding proactively to degrading infrastructure, the exposure 

of vulnerable populations, and other issues often ignored until after a hazard event. 

Fruitful collaboration U.S. cities are playing leadership roles in 

climate change mitigation and adaptation, producing many meaningful 

collaborations. These initiatives provide the groundwork for public officials 
With the speed of product development and adoption, new technology is changing and 

redefining how we live and work more than ever. In the developed world, advances have 

turned mobile phones into always-on, hand-held personal computers—the iPhone is 

100 times faster and 12,000 times cheaper than the world’s best supercomputer from the 

1970s. In developing countries, mobile technology has spurred huge innovations. And 

transformed entire industries like banking and given communication access to millions. 

And these advances, highlighting just one sector, only scratch the surface of what’s 

possible. Experts believe we are in the midst of the next industrial revolution that will 

fundamentally change who makes things, how, and where. The resulting business 

models, tools, and capabilities may have many disaster management benefits. 

Technical advancement is typically looked upon favorably, especially in the United 

States. But the pace of technological change today may be counter-productive, both 

economically and socially. It raises serious concerns related to privacy, power, and 

inequality. It also forces us through rounds of creative destruction, often without drastic 

improvements in living standards, and with wide-ranging impacts. For instance, Wall

Street software glitches can measure in the millions in just seconds. Is it possible that 

technology, by adding speed and complexity to our environment, may actually be making 

things fundamentally less secure and stable? If so, how do we respond? With 

facial detection technology spreading and even government data now held “in the cloud,” 

it is becoming increasingly difficult (and costly) for individuals to opt-out of this hyperconnected system. 

Technical Difficulties 

key trends vs key trends

Technotopia 

New business models “Crowdfunding” platforms like Kickstarter and 

Neighbor.ly are democratizing forces in both business and government—

helping to launch new products or services and fund community projects. 

This opens completely new ways to fundraise, enabling individuals to directly support 

projects they care about. In 2012, the Kickstarter community pledged $99.3 million for 

projects or about ten percent of all seed investment in the United States. Moreover, the 

broader move toward “crowdsourcing” of all kinds signals a major shift in how we work

and the way people interact with organizations (even helping to tackle diseases). 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 6

Privacy and data (in)security Online “cloud storage” services 

grew exponentially by creating new uses for data and offering convenient, 

anywhere access. However, common security measures are flawed, 

offering multiple points of entry for hackers and thieves. Recent data breaches exposed 

the underlying vulnerability of these measures, which fuel entire black markets in stolen 

data. Meanwhile, companies legally collect, buy, and sell detailed information about 

their users. Cyber-crime is now one of the most lucrative forms of criminal activity, and 

the risk of identity theft is a serious issue affecting individuals, businesses, and 

government. 

Data, data everywhere Big data and social networking redefined how 

we think about and manage information. The meteoric growth in the 

collection of data creates new insights and applications. In just one example 

of how analytics can inform real-world decisions, candidates in the 2012 presidential 

election mined voter data to pitch personalized campaigns (micro-targeting) and mobilize 

voters. The Red Cross aggregates data from social media like Twitter and Facebook to 

aid disaster response efforts directly. Some of the hype may fade, but the impacts—like 

improved planning, business intelligence, and situational awareness—indicate big things 

are on the horizon. 

consumers, and even governments. The platforms they offer—suites of services and 

apps that operate on smartphones and tablets—are like “walled gardens,” making it 

difficult for consumers to move content between products, and locking consumers into 

long-term dependency. Moreover, patent wars between technology firms threaten to 

stifle innovation and competition, ultimately hurting the consumer and industry. 

Walled gardens Tech giants like Apple and Google are now ubiquitous

—they provide the remote controls for many people’s digital lives. But 

critics fear that their size and power may become a problem for 

TECHNOLOGY

Technological innovation continues to accelerate—working its way into much of our lives. 

We may benefit greatly from new tools, but troubling trends reveal that a world awash in technology also presents downsides.
implications for government and emergency management implications for government and emergency management

vs

jewelry, even body parts. Printing services offer custom-manufacture of pre-designed 

products, and home-based printers download files from the web that can be turned 

into real objects. Synthetic biologists and biohackers are designing and building whole 

new biological parts, organisms and systems. The Maker Movement aims to 

decentralize and compress the idea of “just in time production,” putting more power in 

the hands of consumers. This idea could redefine the manufacturing process, 

fundamentally change our economy, and enable people to create on-the-fly solutions

to issues encountered during emergency response and recovery. 

The Maker Movement The Makers, a technological subset of the DIY 

movement, are changing the way all kinds of things are produced. 3-D 

printers can now generate everything from custom tools, to hearing aids, 

The Digital Divide The falling cost of consumer electronics has 

made technology more accessible to the poor, but in other ways the 

digital divide persists. Mobile technology has allowed some low-income

people to access the internet, but broadband access still lags behind in many poor 

and rural areas, hampering economic growth and possibly exacerbating underlying 

inequalities. Likewise, the speed of change and the growing level of technical 

sophistication represents a significant barrier to entry for seniors, about half of 

whom don’t use email or the internet at all. For the seniors who are active online, 

many fall victim to novel cyber crimes like phishing schemes and other online fraud. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 7

takeaways takeaways

• These tools and platforms offer new opportunities for government 

and emergency managers to engage with communities, target services, and 

improve efficiency. For instance, non-traditional public-service organizations like 

Code for America are helping government at all levels work better by leveraging 

technical expertise and the power of the internet. Also, online platforms have been 

developed by survivors and organizations to aid communities in disaster 

preparedness and recovery (see pages 14 and 16). 

• The role of social media in shaping the public’s experience with disasters 

is growing—connecting people in new ways. For instance, one Hurricane Sandy 

survivor reportedly received $10,000 in crowfunded donations for recovery efforts in 

her neighborhood. While the benefits of quick and easy post-disaster funding are 

clear, this direct connection bypasses traditional aid organizations and networks. 

This may complicate how funds are tracked and distributed—with areas in greatest 

need not always benefiting. 

The increasing openness inspired by today’s technological innovations 

means that there’s a great need to make better use of a broad swath of new 

information, systems, and processes. Decentralized and collaborative ways of 

producing and communicating may prove threatening to existing, hierarchical 

structures (perhaps even those in emergency management). Overall, managers are 

likely to be forced to use a variety of platforms while balancing the risk of new 

options with “tried-and-true” methods of getting things done. 

• Harnessing quickly-evolving technology applications has been a 

perpetual challenge for government and other large institutions, especially those 

that struggle with underperforming legacy systems. The speed of technology 

creates a digital divide of sorts between public and private sectors. However, as 

government seeks out new capabilities, groups that are digitally disconnected may 

pose an increasing outreach challenge, forcing managers to operate along both 

digital and analog capacities in order to reach the Whole Community. This could be 

resource-intensive and make the operating environment more complex. 

• The U.S. government is courting several big tech companies to 

provide cloud computing services services. However, questions about individual

data security and protection persist. Among other things, a breach of government

data has the potential to greatly undermine public trust. Nonetheless, growing 

technological advances will continue to raise the question about what gets done “inhouse” versus contracted out. This places greater pressure on decision-makers to 

balance costs, internal capabilities, and dependence on outsourced services. 

Being digitally disconnected is a big issue for senior citizens and other 

vulnerable populations. Thus, it is good practice to maintain various outreach 

methods and avoid overreliance on the newest forms of technology—special, nondigital efforts will likely be required to reach some of these groups. Meanwhile, data 

security and privacy issues are likely to remain a top concern. It’s important to take 

the long view about privacy issues, especially when applying emerging technologies 

to disaster situations—where people are most vulnerable and exposed. 
While novel dangers often steal the spotlight, traditional threats have hardly 

disappeared. Far from “old news,” nation-state conflicts, geopolitical instability, and 

the threat of pandemic outbreak are interwoven with the new security considerations 

that have characterized the early 21st century. For instance, independent hacking

attacks or the exposure of secret data can have diplomatic or defense-related fallout. 

Cyber weapons may be used by states against one another, adding new dimensions 

to otherwise traditional conflicts. The contemporary context of globally integrated 

markets and communications systems heightens the complexity and consequences 

of conventional hazards. To ensure the safety, security, and resilience of our Nation, 

we cannot overlook them. 

key trends

Threats, Reloaded 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 8

vs

key trends

Fears of a New Age 

Since 9/11, the United States has focused intensely on homeland security, emphasizing the dangers of “unconventional threats.” Meanwhile, conventional threats like nation-state conflicts still loom large...and may be on the rise.

Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure In a hyper-connected 

world, cyber threats to government and society are real and pervasive. In 

2012, then Defense Secretary Leon Panetta talked of the possibility of 

“a cyber-Pearl Harbor.” Security experts warn especially of rising threats to critical 

infrastructure, including power plants, water systems, energy pipelines, transportation 

systems and financial networks. While the U.S. government is developing policies 

and practices to mitigate cyber-threats, including guidelines to help private firms 

responsible for managing critical infrastructure nodes, some argue it’s not enough. 

Environmental hazards Man-made environmental threats are a 

large and unsettling unknown, especially those related to biotechnology. 

Critics fear that engineered plants or animals could destabilize 

ecosystems and disrupt global food supplies. Extensive research in bioengineering 

may increase the probability of an accidental (or intentional) release of a destructive 

bioengineered agent. Others argue that other sources of risk may include drilling 

processes like hydraulic “fracking,” which uses up large amounts of clean water and 

may carry other environmental consequences. 

other factors, including the demand for energy, food, and water resources. How such 

tensions play out in the future is unclear. Even seemingly dated issues, like territorial 

disputes (e.g., in the South China Sea) are potential flashpoints for U.S. allies. The 

prospect of war is terrifying given the lethality of modern warfare and the increasing 

availability of both conventional nuclear weapons and tools of asymmetric warfare. 

Nation-state conflicts The end of the Cold War, 9/11, and other 

factors shifted attention away from conventional state-on-state conflicts. 

A return of those kinds of tensions is plausible. “Natural Security” involves 

Fragile states Economic and political turbulence over the last few 

years has destabilized many parts of the world. Global and regional 

institutions stuggled to fully contain or manage border and civil conflicts, with 

Syria being the most vivid recent example. Instability can spill over across regions. 

Potential disruption in the Middle East remains a heightened risk due to existing or 

aspirational possession of nuclear armaments. Closer to home in the Western 

Hemisphere, drugs, violence, poverty, and political instability pose ongoing risks. Given 

the interconnectedness of trade and political relationships in the region, the United 

States is not able to isolate itself from these pressures. 

SECURITY

Background image courtesy of Daniel Foster 

As the world grows more complex so do the threats to life, safety, and security. Since 

the 9/11 terror attacks, the world has shifted focus to 21st century “unconventional” 

threats. NATO, for example, established an Office of Unconventional Threats; security 

experts argue that the likeliest and most dangerous future security challenges will be 

unconventional. While some threats arise from technological advances, the upsurge in 

mass shootings that has gripped the Nation over the last year shows the destruction 

possible with relatively low-tech but highly lethal tools purchased legally on the free 

market. Moreover, terrorists today have a wide range of tools at their disposal. To cope 

with gaps in our ability to manage these dangers—whether from global governance or 

intelligence sharing—our security focus has turned to these emergent challenges. 
• Scientific and technical knowledge are key to successful management 

of unconventional threats. This means that to stay ahead of potential adversaries, 

government—and its partners in industry and academia—must be at the forefront of 

science and technology. In some cases, social sciences (e.g., geography, social 

psychology) may be as important as so-called “hard” science in the development of 

strong emergency communications and community-response actions. 

• Unconventional threats often require innovative responses, as the 

disciplines of law enforcement, intelligence, homeland security, and emergency 

management are learning. Employing cybersecurity professionals and undercover 

agents, for instance, have been fruitful ways to discover new vulnerabilities. The 

structures we put in place today to deal with these challenges will likely endure well 

into the future; rigid and inflexible systems may be costly. 

implications for government and emergency management

implications for government and emergency management

vs

• Pandemic planning needs to be well thought-out, but not overly 

complex. The implications of an actual event need to be understood and response 

plans well-rehearsed. Public health officials and emergency planners say that 

pandemic crises could last months, not weeks. They could have pervasive societal 

effects, with up to 40 percent of workers affected at a time, in any affected 

community. And this doesn’t even factor in the economic effects. The CDC 

estimates even a typical flu-season outbreak costs employers over $10 billion, just 

in direct doctor and hospital visits alone. Planning considerations include 

stockpiling of essential supplies, protocols for sharing healthcare resources, and 

supporting emergency responders and their families. 

• With unpredicatable volatility abroad, domestic resources could be 

diverted to address international issues and be unavailable to aid in domestic 

emergency efforts. Likewise, global threats requiring new U.S. military build-ups 

could delay or disrupt investments in competing domestic programs, like those 

earmarked for desperately-needed infrastructure improvements. 

takeaways

The new dynamics of emerging threats raise the need to improve 

knowledge-sharing and exchange between emergency managers and scientific and 

technical communities. Similarly, new training, equipment, technology, and facilities 

are also key. Inter-disciplinary and jurisdictional collaboration, especially with law 

enforcement, is likely to be a top priority. Such collaboration may help identify unique 

threats, like areas of risk to mass shootings (e.g., schools), establish emergency 

plans, and educate the public about how to respond to a range of emergencies. 

takeaways

Given the potential impact from conventional threats, there may be a 

critical need for plans that reinforce local disaster response and resilience amidst 

competing resource demands. Collaboration between emergency managers and 

public health officials would be key to evaluate and strengthen existing public health 

capacities in preparation for a pandemic or nuclear exposure event. The underlying 

assumption should be not if, but when, a pandemic strikes. Meanwhile, greater 

humanitarian demands abroad may increase the need for international emergency 

management services and coordination, including resources from the United States. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 9

outbreak, the H5N1 flu scare of 2008, and the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010 had 

international implications. Health officials worry about another strain transmittable 

from human-to-human that may have catastrophic consequences, both in terms of 

infectiousness and lethality. In 2012, two cases from abroad surfaced a previously 

unrecorded coronavirus. Meanwhile, infections like “mad cow disease” are a potent 

reminder that pandemics can also attack via the food supply. 

Pandemics Perhaps the oldest human threat, pandemics are now 

back to the fore. The ease of transmission and contagion has accelerated 

with global commerce, transportation, and supply chains. The 2003 SARS 

facilities, military installations, and dense concentrations of people. Weapons could 

include explosives (from conventional to nuclear), electronics, nanotechnology, or 

pathogens directed against the U.S. population or food and water supplies. 

Catastrophic terrorism More than a decade after the 9/11 terror 

attacks, terrorism remains a risk to the United States . Innumerable potential 

targets include ports, utilities, dams, mass transit, air transit, bio-research 

Mass shootings 2012 was a bad year for mass shootings in the 

United States—highlighting a distressing trend. The Nation has suffered 

62 mass shootings since 1982, with 25 of these occurring since 2006. 

Seven attacks happened in 2012 alone. The 2012 tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary 

in Connecticut reminds us of the domestic threat of mass shootings, and how it can 

strike anywhere, targeting even the most vulnerable and defenseless. 
Community Capacity & Emergency Management

Forthcoming 

No matter their size, location or purpose, all human communities 

share at least one thing: their susceptibility to disasters, both 

natural and manmade. In the context of disaster resilience, what 

often separates communities is their community capacity to 

respond to and recover from such incidents. Yet, this issue is 

largely missing as a crucial element of planning and 

preparedness. The FEMA SFI team developed an issue paper 

that explored the effects, interconnections, and implications of 

communities’ social capacity as it relates to disaster resilience. 

Our research highlights various dynamics about this complex 

issue that matter for emergency managers, including: 

 Recovery from disasters is both a physical and social 

process. It involves the restoration of social and economic 

activities as well as the repair of the built environment. 

 Community context plays an important part in 

understanding social capacity. Cities, towns and villages 

develop in response to economic opportunity and the human 

propensity for cooperation—and these realities need to be 

accounted for in our planning and response efforts. 

 Government policies shape disaster planning efforts. Do 

current policies and programs address social capacity and 

emergency management in potentially hazardous areas to 

help ensure the resiliency of the community? 

ISSUE PAPER ABSTRACT

Community capacity is 

an amalgam of various 

factors such as geography, 

demographics, politics, and 

policies that can affect a 

community’s ability to cope 

and adapt. 

SFI will soon publish this issue paper. A link 

will be posted on the SFI website to enable 

our community to dive deeper into this issue. 

With more than 50 references, the paper 

includes a wealth of additional resources. 


"	
#%'$$

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 10

research highlights 
Risk Management & Insurance

Forthcoming 

Over the past three decades, North America has seen a fivefold 

increase in losses from weather-related natural disasters. 

According to Munich Re, North America accounted for $510 billion 

of insured losses from weather-related catastrophes between 

1980 and 2011, or 69 percent of the global total. While insurance 

is the most common tool used to address risks associated with 

disasters, statistics for the United States show that many 

individuals and businesses still do not have risk insurance. That 

leaves millions of dollars in uninsured losses that must be 

covered by an “insurer of last resort.” Currently, that burden falls 

on the Federal government. 

The FEMA SFI team developed an issue paper that explored 

existing insurance tools. The paper highlights various issues that 

matter to emergency managers, including: 

 Decisions on whether to insure against certain risks affect 

emergency management planning and response. If 

homeowners choose not to insure against floods, the 

government’s costs for disaster assistance can rise. 

 The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), which 

currently covers about 5.6 millions households and 

businesses for a total of $1.25 trillion in exposure, faces 

regulatory crossroads. Reform efforts that aim to deal with 

the program’s existing debt burden and long-term solvency 

confront several trade-offs among four key public policy goals: 

charging premium rates that reflect risks, limiting ad hoc 

federal spending on disaster relief assistance, encouraging 

broad participation in the program, and encouraging private 

markets to provide flood insurance. 

 Emergency managers should remain focused on the 

community’s threats and hazards. They should also remain 

conscious of the current insurance environment, which will 

greatly affect a community’s ability to recover, following an 

incident. 

ISSUE PAPER ABSTRACT

Through federal insurance 

programs and direct aid, the 

US government takes 

responsibility for a large 

amount of catastrophic loss 

coverage. For the years 1989 

through 2008, federal 

disaster spending covered 

45% of total catastrophic 

losses. 

SFI will soon publish this issue 

paper. A link will be posted on the 

SFI website to enable our 

community to dive deeper into this 

issue. With more than 50 

references, the paper includes a 

wealth of additional resources. 


#&$%%

 


Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Sustaining Foresight| Page 11

research highlights 
 

+ 

+ 

Feature Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Overview of this Feature

+ 

In this Feature...

 Ten anecdotes from the field: 

examples of independent efforts 

that fulfill strategic needs and help 

make our Nation more resilient........Page 13

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 12

The aim of this Feature is to spotlight efforts from the Whole Community that exemplify how 

individuals, organizations, and governments can develop the capabilities, tools, and partnerships to meet 

our future needs. Two key factors explain how these 10 anecdotes demonstrate our needs in practice. 

First, SFI developed 15 strategic needs that identify requirements for success across a range of futures 

(see Appendix B for details). These 15 strategic needs—grouped into Essential Capabilities, Innovative 

Models and Tools, and Dynamic Partnerships—serve as guideposts to inform our planning, investments, 

and actions so that we can deal with the changing demands of the future operating environment. A core 

part of SFI is to seek and promote success stories of real world applications of these strategic needs. 

Second, the 10 anecdotes captured here are independent efforts that emerged organically—because 

people and organizations sought to deliver better solutions to existing challenges. They represent a 

diverse spectrum of organizations and causes—from non-profits to education and disaster response. We 

believe they are models that can be leveraged, replicated, or scaled to help move us toward more 

resilient futures. Each offers concrete outcomes sought or achieved as well as key success factors.

The 10 captured here were developed largely in response to a call for anecdotes sent via the monthly SFI 

newsletter. Most were identified through networking and knowledge-sharing sessions; a few by FEMA 

representatives following disaster response and recovery operations. We invite our wider community to 

engage with us and spotlight more cases of future strategic needs in practice. 

2 – Future 

Strategic 

Needs in 

Practice

References to any specific 

non-Government products, 

entities, or services do not 

constitute or imply an 

endorsement by the Federal 

Emergency Management 

Agency (FEMA), the 

Department of Homeland 

Security (DHS), or the United 

States. The views and opinions 

expressed by individuals 

quoted in this document do not 

necessarily represent the 

views of FEMA, DHS, or the 

United States.

Notes

Image courtesy of Lee Krohn Photography/Manchester Vol. Fire Department
The Community Resilience Pilot was initiated to empower 

communities to become more resilient in the face of 

disaster. By engaging with and supporting community 

networks in emergency preparedness, the Red Cross 

moves beyond its traditional role of preparedness educator 

to foster community connections and capacity-building. The 

aim is to increase cross-sector collaboration under nonemergency circumstances, so that when a disaster occurs, 

communities are better prepared. The resulting partnerships 

and systems also benefit response and recovery efforts. The 

Asian American Network was created as a part of this pilot. 

THE BACKSTORY The American Red Cross:

Community Resilience Pilot 

Connecting local organizations and 

resources to improve community resilience 

and meet the needs of each community. 

THE CHALLENGE

The Asian American Network was created to help overcome 

language barriers and cultural differences that hampered 

Biloxi, Mississippi’s ability to respond, recover, and build 

resilience in the face of disaster. The network held cultural 

competency trainings, which created the impetus for a new, 

community-driven network initiated by the Biloxi Fire 

Department (BFD) to build trust between first responders 

and non-English speaking communities. The network has 

reached over 1,400 community members and includes the 

BFD and a Hispanic American network. It serves to break 

down cultural barriers between first responders and their 

community to get people help when they need it most. 

THE PROJECT 

 multi-organizational collaboration in region to provide 

cultural competency training, delivered to over 130 people 

 spin-off network launched by BFD to build trust and 

resilience among various non-English speaking groups 

 preparedness events provided to more than 1,400 people 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

 Community-led action by various local 

minority groups & stakeholders 

 Neutral broker to facilitate community 

collaboration 

 Making assessments with community input 

to identify concerns & needs 

 Collaboration across agencies to convene 

well-attended trainings 

 Strong connections developed between 

Red Cross, communities & first responders 

The Community Resilience Pilot supports various 

capabilities to help communities deal with future 

challenges, including these strategic needs: 

#1 – Develop capabilities to address dynamic 

population shifts 

#9 – Plan around shared interests for maximum 

use of EM capabilities 

#12 – Empower individuals & communities to play 

a greater role throughout all phases of disasters 

 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 13

Jacqueline Yannacci, Director, Community Resilience: jacqueline.yannacci@redcross.org | 

202.303.6724 | redcross.org

CONTACT 

INFO:

Image courtesy of the American Red Cross 
Recovers.org:

Community-powered disaster recovery 

Chief Operating Officer, Chris Kuryak: chris@recovers.org | 512.632.5144 | recovers.org

Provide residents and local organizations 

with simple tools that leverage existing 

community skills and resources to build 

greater disaster resilience. 

THE CHALLENGE

After a tornado ripped through Monson, MA in the summer of 

2011, the small town got a taste of community-powered, hightech recovery. Sisters Morgan and Caitria O’Neill quickly 

realized that the aid organizations swooping in to the area 

could not leverage spontaneous volunteers, could not gather 

donation items, and could not stay long-term. Local 

organizers, on the other hand, could effectively utilize these 

resources for the immediate and long-term recovery. In 

response, the two created a locally-managed system for 

volunteer, donation and case management, enabling a faster, 

cheaper recovery in Monson. 

THE BACKSTORY 

Recovers.org is a community software platform that 

organizes volunteers, donations and information at the local 

level. Used primarily as a preparedness tool, the system 

helps residents map their neighborhoods and gives 

emergency management a detailed view of preparedness 

levels across the area. Multiple organizations can 

collaborate, volunteers can sign up and release liability 

remotely, donors can list resources rather than dropping 

them off, and those with needs can easily and privately 

request help from all relevant agencies at once. 

THE PROJECT 

 better coordinated and more effective volunteer efforts (via 

volunteer management tools) 

 organized database and mapping of resources and 

community needs (case management features) 

 centralized information hub for community updates and 

situational awareness 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

 Scaling startup with philanthropic support 

(backed by Knight Enterprise Fund, MIT Ideas 

Competition, Code for America) 

 Focusing on capacity building for enduring 

impact 

 Developing a user-friendly interface 

 Designing lightweight toolkits tailored to the 

needs of individual communities 

Recovers.org is an effective tool that provides a 

platform for communities to form partnerships, 

which helps address these strategic needs: 

#5 – Leverage volunteer capabilities across all 

EM phases 

#9 – Plan around shared interests for maximum 

use of EM capabilities 

#11 – Influence development of emerging, EMrelevant technologies 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 14

CONTACT 

INFO:
Alaska Community Rebuilding:

A Whole Community Effort 

Ben Curran, Chief, Voluntary Agency and Donations Coordination Section, FEMA: 

ben.curran@dhs.gov | 202.212.1074 

Rebuild the small town of Eagle and Eagle 

Village after flooding that destroyed and 

damaged homes and critical infrastructure. 

THE CHALLENGE

In May 2009, unseasonably warm temperatures and the 

breakup of an ice jam on Alaska's Yukon River sent massive 

floating ice chunks into the small town of Eagle, a rural 

community located along the U.S.-Canada border. Eagle 

Village, a tiny tribal settlement dating back prior to European 

exploration, was virtually destroyed. In the town of Eagle 

many homes, buildings and roads near the river were 

severely damaged. President Obama declared the Yukon 

River flooding part of a national disaster on June 11, 2009. 

Rebuilding damaged homes, buildings and critical 

infrastructure in these rural Alaska communities was a 

Whole Community effort. 

THE BACKSTORY 

In the immediate aftermath of the flood, individuals and 

businesses in Fairbanks, AK, donated over 10,000 lbs of 

relief supplies. Faith-based voluntary organizations including 

the Mennonite Disaster Service and Samaritan's Purse 

provided building materials and labor to ensure residents 

had safe and secure housing before winter. Nearby tribal 

councils donated food and supplies. Alaska Voluntary 

Organizations Active in Disaster provided support in locating, 

organizing and transporting donations to the Eagle 

communities, and FEMA provided grants to fund building 

supplies and voluntary agency travel for the recovery effort. 

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers provided technical 

assistance for operations. 

THE PROJECT 

 an approach for sharing and marshaling resources in 

an extremely remote context 

 a model for how to empower communities and 

individuals to improve disaster resilience 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

 Collaborating across sectors and leveraging 

disparate resources for shared goals 

 Incorporating tribal, faith-based & secular 

voluntary agency services 

 Sharing of regional & sub-regional assets, 

infrastructure, & logistics capabilities 

 Involving individuals, neighborhoods, tribal 

organizations & communities 

The rebuilding efforts of Eagle and Eagle Village 

support the following strategic needs: 

#5 – Leverage volunteer capabilities across all 

EM phases 

#7 – Employ alternative surge models 

#13 – Proactively engage business in all EM 

phases, especially policy development 

#15 – Enable access to military capabilities to 

augment capacity as needed 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 15

CONTACT 

INFO:

Image courtesy of Ben Brennan/FEMA 
The Community and Regional Resilience Institute is a 

collaborative effort funded by DHS and FEMA. Headed 

by the not-for-profit Meridian Institute, the Community 

Resilience System (CRS) was developed over 18 

months. The CRS combines the insights of over 200 

scholars, community leaders, and business executives 

with practical experience in a number of US 

communities. Its purpose is to provide an immediately 

useable approach to assess, measure, improve, and 

reward community resilience. The system is currently 

being piloted in seven communities across the United 

States. 

THE BACKSTORY Community and Regional Resilience Institute: 

The Community Resilience System (CRS) 

Help the Whole Community facilitate, track, 

and measure a disaster response and 

recovery action plan. 

THE CHALLENGE

A key feature of the CRS is a web-based software that 

guides a community and its champions through a 

process to improve resilience, provides access to the 

resources in user-friendly formats, and documents the 

results of the community’s actions. It leads the 

community through the creation of innovative social 

networks and encourages use of all forms of 

communication at every step. The CRS is based on the 

recognition that cross-sector collaboration improves 

resilience, and channels of communication must be open 

and strong within the community prior to a crisis. 

THE PROJECT 

çç 

 assistance for communities to find and use the tools and 

processes that support development of essential EM 

capabilities across the Whole Community 

 national recognition of locally created EM capabilities and 

processes 

THE OUTCOMES 

Warren Edwards, Executive Director: warren@resilientus.org | 865.382.7125 | 

resilientus.org

 Engaging & activating all parts of communities 

 Recognizing the connections & 

interdependencies within communities 

 Generating interest & enthusiasm among the 

non-governmental parts of communities, 

particularly the non-profit sector 

 Drawing upon experience & expertise across 

different sectors & fields 

By helping the Whole Community develop 

resilience-enhancing action plans, CRS 

addresses several strategic needs, especially: 

#2 – Practice omni-directional knowledge sharing 

#6 – Adopt risk management tools to manage 

complex event consequences 

#12 – Empower individuals & communities to play 

a greater role throughout all phases of disasters 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

THE TAKEAWAYS

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 16

CONTACT 

INFO:
Canada-United States Cooperation:

Action Plan for Critical Infrastructure 

Gregory Solecki, Calgary Emergency Management Agency (CEMA): 

greg.solecki@calgary.ca | 403.268.8802 | publicsafety.gc.ca/prg/ns/ci/cci-eng.aspx

Facilitate cross-border cooperation in 

preventing and responding to emergencies 

THE CHALLENGE

In addition to critical energy, supply, and transportation 

networks, the Canada-United States border region is 

home to many key infrastructure components including 

refineries, nuclear facilities, and large manufacturing 

operations. This interconnectedness means that impacts 

from disruptions can and do span international 

jurisdictions. As a result, Canada and the U.S. have 

recently agreed to promote a more integrated approach to 

critical infrastructure resilience. The Canada-U.S. Action 

Plan establishes a framework for both nations to respond 

jointly to emerging threats and work together to protect 

communities. 

THE BACKSTORY 

The Action Plan strengthens the safety and security of 

Canada and the United States by establishing the basis 

on which the two countries may help one another. During 

or after an emergency, for example, the countries may 

share supplies and equipment, emergency personnel, or 

expert support. As a direct result of the Action Plan, water 

sector representatives from Canada and the United States 

agreed to use a single online portal, the WaterISAC, 

where members can share lessons learned and best 

practices. By promoting cooperation like this, the Action 

Plan allows both countries to more effectively address a 

range of cross-border critical infrastructure issues and 

work together to improve resilience. 

THE PROJECT 

 a comprehensive cross-border approach to critical 

infrastructure resilience 

 an integrated and collaborative approach to manage 

critical infrastructure protection issues 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

 Identifying specific deliverables to support joint 

critical infrastructure objectives 

 Providing a framework for Canada & the 

United States to better manage risks 

 Strengthening the resiliency of critical 

infrastructure in both countries 

 Supporting regional cross-border relations by 

promoting awareness of common critical 

infrastructure issues 

By facilitating cross-border cooperation, the 

Action Plan for Critical Infrastructure directly 

addresses the following SFI strategic needs: 

#8 – Establish flexible frameworks for 

collaboration 

#10 – Remediate vulnerabilities across EM 

supply chains & critical infrastructure 

#14 – Intensify disaster-response collaboration & 

planning with Canada and Mexico 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 17

CONTACT 

INFO:

Image courtesy of Flickr user US Mission Canada 
ISC was founded in 1991 by former Vermont Governor 

Madeleine Kunin and her planning director George 

Hamilton. ISC is a Vermont-based, global nonprofit 

organization partnering with communities around the world 

to develop the tools and skills needed to inspire active 

citizenship, protect the environment, and take on climate 

change. ISC has led 90 projects in 25 countries and 

currently works in the United States, China, Serbia, and 

India. Some key U.S. regional projects include the Western 

Adaptation Alliance and the Southeast Florida Climate 

Compact, helping local leaders tackle climate issues. 

THE BACKSTORY Institute for Sustainable Communities (ISC):

The Resilient Vermont Project 

Stephanie Rust, D.C. Office Director: srust@iscvt.org | 202.777.7544 | iscvt.org

Build upon successful ongoing initiatives to 

help Vermont prepare for, respond to, and 

bounce back from future natural disasters.

THE CHALLENGE

The Resilient Vermont Project sets out to make the State a 

model of community, economic, and environmental 

resilience. In collaboration with Vermont’s Governor, state 

agencies, and local organizations, the 18-month project 

(which which began in October 2012) will accelerate the 

transition from disaster recovery from Tropical Storm Irene 

to long-term resilience. The goal is to forge more coherent 

and comprehensive approaches to climate adaptation and 

resilience by bringing together stakeholders across many 

sectors, and building an action-oriented roadmap to achieve 

long-term impacts. 

THE PROJECT 

 an inventory of ongoing efforts to bolster resilience 

 a common vision of resilience for Vermont 

 an action agenda including policy, infrastructure and 

governance improvements 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

 Partnering across organizational & 

jurisdictional boundaries 

 Focusing on enduring capacity building 

 Incorporating measures of economic, 

environmental & social resilience 

 Drawing from expertise, experience and 

influence of all partners 

 Gaining buy in & support from both 

community leaders & high-profile officials 

 Securing funds from diverse sources—

including non-profits, grants, & philanthropy 

This work supports various capabilities needed 

to be resilient in the face of future challenges, 

while addressing these strategic needs: 

#4 – Build a shared EM future vision with 

appropriate plans & contingencies 

#5 – Leverage volunteer capabilities across all 

EM phases 

#12 – Empower individuals & communities to 

play a greater role throughout all phases of 

disasters 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 18

CONTACT 

INFO:

Image courtesy of Lee Krohn Photography/Manchester Vol. Fire Department 
One of the program’s required courses, covering 

organizational theory, decided to apply strategic foresight in 

the classroom. Using publically-available SFI documents, 

students were asked to explore future trajectories in 

emergency management. The main objective was to show 

them how organizational structures can be adapted to better 

meet the needs of our changing world. The final exam 

asked students to: summarize how SFI might lead to a more 

proactive approach to emergency management, discuss 

theories and concepts that could facilitate greater resilience, 

and assess the organizational changes needed. 

California State University Long Beach: 

CSULB using SFI in the Classroom 

Integrate SFI and strategic thinking about 

the future of emergency management into 

the curriculum of a Master’s degree 

program. 

THE CHALLENGE

THE BACKSTORY 

CSULB offers a Master of Science in Emergency Service 

Administration. The program’s students tend to be early to 

mid-career professionals from emergency services, health, 

business and the military. As such, their experience brings 

richness to their pursuit of scholarship and leadership, as 

well as a desire for addressing the limitations and needs 

observed in the field. Equipping the students with an 

understanding of the changing physical and social world, 

and preparing them to meet complex challenges is central. 

SFI provided well-developed material to test students’ 

aptitude in strategic planning and change management. 

THE PROJECT 

 a model for how to integrate SFI into higher education 

 understanding of changes needed in local communities and 

agencies to implement SFI strategic needs 

 insights into how the field may need to manage future 

change drivers of change to promote greater resilience 

THE OUTCOMES 

Instructors: Shirley Feldmann-Jensen, RN MPH: shirley.jensen@csulb.edu | 

562.985.7489 | Dr. Steven Jensen: sjensen@csulb.edu | 562.900.4532 

 Prompting students to explore how SFI might 

lead to a more proactive approach to 

emergency management 

 Accounting for & integrating trends from many 

diverse fields into coursework 

 Using scenario-based approaches to assess 

alternative futures & potential opportunities 

 Understanding that the 15 SFI strategic needs 

require a more proactive culture 

The integration of SFI into the CSULB Master’s in 

Emergency Service Administration addresses these 

strategic needs: 

#3 – Infuse EM practices & skills across the entire 

educational experience 

#4 – Build a shared EM future vision with 

appropriate plans & contingencies 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

THE TAKEAWAYS

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 19

CONTACT 

INFO:

Image courtesy of Wikipedia user Buchanan-Hermit 
Financial support can be used to draw attention to important 

issues, and to both inspire and reward innovation. In 

response to the continuing threat to communities from 

terrorist attacks and natural disasters, in September, FEMA 

and the Rockefeller Foundation established the 2012 

Community Resilience Innovation Challenge. The program 

is designed to encourage communities to develop a 

collective, local ability to withstand the initial impacts of 

disaster events, respond quickly, and recover and rebuild 

the community to an enhanced level of resiliency. It will 

support both existing initiatives and new collaborations. 

THE BACKSTORY The 2012 Challenge:

Inspiring Community Innovation & Resilience 

Encourage local communities to engage in 

creative activities that enhance disaster 

resilience. 

THE CHALLENGE

The 2012 Challenge program will support a broad range of 

creative activities and may include organizing resources, 

partnerships, and leadership activities among small 

neighborhood groups, civic or faith-based organizations, 

private sector entities, or educational institutions. Selected 

projects will be funded up to $35,000. The funding for this 

opportunity is provided by the Rockefeller Foundation in 

cooperation with FEMA. The grant is being administered by 

the Los Angeles Emergency Preparedness Foundation. At 

the close of the initial application period, over 2,000 award 

applications were submitted. Awards were announced on 

May 7, 2013 (details available at resiliencechallenge.org). 

THE PROJECT 

§ innovative ideas to enhance community resilience 

§ collaboration with community stakeholders 

§ sustainable and repeatable processes and approaches 

that can be used by other communities 

§ support for community-based disaster resilience projects 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

§ Providing support for innovative thinking 

at the grassroots level 

§ Bringing residents together to confront 

local problems & to expand opportunities 

§ Assisting with catalyzing newly formed 

networks, groups or institutions that 

come together specifically to design & 

test innovative approaches to community 

resilience 

Opening the emergency management system to 

the Whole Community through innovation 

competitions addresses these strategic needs: 

#3 – Infuse EM practices and skills across the 

entire educational experience 

#4 – Build a shared EM future vision with 

appropriate plans & contingencies 

#12 – Empower individuals & communities to 

play a greater role throughout all phases of 

disasters 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 20

Brent Woodworth, LAEPF: brent.woodworth@laepf.org | 818.585.5995 

David Ashley, FEMA: david.ashley@dhs.gov | 202.646.2971 | resiliencechallenge.org

CONTACT 

INFO:

Image courtesy of Flickr user 2day929 
Islamic Relief USA was founded in California in 1993. It 

strives to alleviate suffering, hunger, illiteracy, and diseases 

worldwide regardless of color, race, religion, or creed, and to 

provide aid in a compassionate and dignified manner. In 

2011, IRUSA developed the Disaster Assistance Response 

Team (DART) program. As DART team members, IRUSA 

volunteers from around the country attend Red Cross and 

FEMA training in post-disaster aid work. Trainings cover 

everything from first aid, to sheltering, to post-disaster relief 

registration. Once certified, these trained volunteers can be 

mobilized rapidly when a disaster strikes. 

THE BACKSTORY Islamic Relief USA:

Disaster Assistance Response Team 

THE ISSUE

In 2012, IRUSA trained and certified over 600 volunteers as 

DART team members, and deployed DART teams to six 

different disasters. With Hurricane Sandy nearing landfall, a 

DART team of 20 members mobilized to New Jersey to help 

with relief efforts. Staff and volunteers provided shelter 

management services to over 600 people at two separate 

hurricane shelters on the campus of Rutgers University. In 

addition, IRUSA worked in cooperation with a group from the 

church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints to help affected 

homeowners tear out flooring and drywall from their flooded 

homes in preparation for reconstruction. 

THE PROJECT 

 over 600 trained and certified rapid response disaster 

relief volunteers, located across the country 

 a model for collaboration between multiple faith-based 

organizations and relief/recovery agencies 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 21

Abed Ayoub, Chief Executive Officer: aayoub@irusa.org| 703.370.7202 | 

irusa.org/disasterresponse/

IRUSA’s Hurricane Sandy relief efforts support 

these strategic needs: 

#2 – Practice omni-directional knowledge sharing 

#5 – Leverage volunteer capabilities across all 

EM phases 

#7 – Employ alternative surge models 

# 9 – Plan around shared interests for maximum 

use of EM capabilities 

 Collaborating with multiple faith-based 

voluntary agencies 

 Developing cross-sectional partnerships for 

training & certification 

 Establishing a framework for training prior to 

disaster impact, allowing for rapid deployment 

 Focusing on youth volunteer recruitment 

Provide rapid deployment of relief supplies 

and aid to survivors of Hurricane Sandy in 

Staten Island. 

CONTACT 

INFO:
The International Association of Emergency Managers 

(IAEM), was formed in 1952 as the National Civil Defense 

Council. A non-profit professional organization now 

comprised of over 5,000 members worldwide, the IAEM 

sponsors a certification program in Emergency 

Management, publishes a monthly newsletter, and hosts an 

annual conference. The Universities & Colleges Caucus 

(UCC) of the IAEM was formed to provide emergency 

managers from higher education institutions a national and 

international voice to ensure the needs of campus 

communities are being addressed by government and 

industry officials. 

THE BACKSTORY Universities & Colleges Caucus:

International Association of Emergency Managers 

Improve information-sharing between 

higher education emergency management 

agencies. 

THE ISSUE

In preparing for, responding to, recovering from, and 

mitigating the impacts of disasters, college and university 

campuses have unique needs and capabilities. In addition to 

providing a forum for those in the academic community to 

share information about all aspects of the disaster planning 

process via listserv, blog, and social media, the UCC also 

engages directly with emergency management officials at 

multiple levels. For example, in 2012 the UCC created a site 

on the DHS First Responder Communities of Practice to 

enable members to share confidential reports, exercise 

documents, incident after-action reports and more on a 

secure web portal. 

THE PROJECT 

 a robust multimedia system for information sharing to 

improve on-campus resilience 

 a secure database managed by individual users 

 networking and mentoring support for members 

THE OUTCOMES 

THE TAKEAWAYS

By improving information-sharing in a higher 

education context, the IAEM-UCC efforts address 

these strategic needs: 

#2 – Practice omni-directional knowledge-sharing 

#3 – Infuse emergency management practices & 

skills across the entire educational experience 

#4 – Build a shared EM future vision with 

appropriate plans & contingencies 

SUCCESS FACTORS SFI STRATEGIC NEEDS 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Future Strategic Needs in Practice | Page 22

Andre LeDuc, Caucus Chair: leduc@uoregon.edu | 541.346.5833 | 

iaem.com/committees/College/index.htm

CONTACT 

INFO:

 Leveraging opportunities created by major 

planned campus events (e.g., football 

games) to incorporate emergency 

management exercises and training 

 Building new, interdisciplinary networks 

within larger organizational frameworks 

(IAEM) 

 Coordinating committee meetings around 

broader networking opportunities 

Image courtesy of www.iaem.com 
 

+ 

+ 

Feature Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Overview of this Feature

+ 

In this Feature...

 Seven profiles from the Whole 

Community: innovators discuss 

the future and share ideas that 

can lead us toward greater 

resilience..........................................Page 24

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Issues. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 23

3 – Big Issues. 

Strong 

Leaders. 

Bold Action.

The aim of this Feature is to inspire our community into action by profiling innovators working to solve 

big issues and make our Nation more resilient. A key piece of the Whole Community approach to 

emergency management is the recognition that government-centric efforts cannot fully meet the 

challenges posed by disasters. Scattered throughout the Whole Community are many individuals who 

are innately innovative and interested in delivering better solutions that improve how our Nation 

manages disasters.

By profiling innovators from the Whole Community, we recognize the extraordinary contributions that 

individuals make to enhance our national resilience. Whether it’s by improving government collaboration, 

developing better business services, or serving the unique needs of their communities, these 

innovators are undoubtedly leaders—taking bold action to solve big-ticket issues. We applaud their work 

and passion, and hope their stories and ideas resonate with others across the EM community. 

These seven profiles were developed either through edited phone interviews or through written 

submissions during email exchanges with members of the SFI team. The individuals identified in this 

Feature are not, of course, representative of all the innovation taking place throughout the Whole 

Community. Rather, they are but a small sampling that we hope can inspire broader and deeper action 

around disaster resilience. They were identified by SFI from its networking and research efforts 

supporting this document. We invite our wider community to engage with us and help us spotlight other 

innovators. 

Image courtesy of Bob McMillan/FEMA 

References to any specific 

non-Government products, 

entities, or services do not 

constitute or imply an 

endorsement by the Federal 

Emergency Management 

Agency (FEMA), the 

Department of Homeland 

Security (DHS), or the United 

States. The views and opinions 

expressed by individuals 

quoted in this document do not 

necessarily represent the 

views of FEMA, DHS, or the 

United States.

Notes

Volunteers from CARD display tools they’ve developed (p.27) 
Michael McDaniel

Q: What does the 

future of disaster 

resilience look like 

to you? 

Q: What is the biggest 

disaster resilience 

problem you are trying 

to solve? Why does it 

matter? 



I believe the future of disaster response will be 

transformed in several areas: shelter, communication, and 

power distribution. Advances in power storage will make 

our fragile centralized power grids much more resilient in 

the coming years. Soon, technology will allow social media 

streams to be tamed, converting them into powerful 

replacements for the Emergency Alert System. Innovative 

design work, typically only applied within the private 

sector, will move into the public sector to drive new 

solutions to old problems such as mass housing. 

Q: What do you want to 

inspire others to 

do? What is your “call to 

action” to the Whole 

Community?

I want people to look beyond the known and have the 

courage to try new ideas. Innovation is NOT born from 

risk mitigation. True innovation is the direct result of 

people who are willing to give the crazy idea, person, or 

product a chance. Innovative solutions require bravery 

more than any other thing. To advance things for the 

greater good, we must be willing to be brave, bold, and 

perhaps even a little crazy ourselves. Well, at least crazy 

enough to think that we can actually change things for the 

betterment of all. 

Designer, Inventor, Hacker

michaelmcdaniel.com 

Michael, the principal designer at Frog, is a social-impact entrepreneur “obsessed 

with creating meaningful design in order to make this world a better place.” 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 24

I am working to solve the “housing gap” – basically the 

lack of housing options immediately following a disaster 

up to 90 days post-disaster. Currently there are no shelter 

systems that can be stored and transported efficiently, 

erected in just minutes, then reused over and over again. 

Shelter is one of the most basic of human needs, yet it is 

rarely addressed in an adequate manner following most 

disasters.
Richard Ruge 

Q: What does the 

future of disaster 

resilience look like 

to you? 

Q: What is the biggest 

disaster resilience 

problem you are trying 

to solve? Why does it 

matter? 



Q: What do you want to 

inspire others to 

do? What is your “call to 

action” to the Whole 

Community?

We call this cultural shift the ROSE Initiative - Reflecting 

on Safety in Emergencies. This is a great adventure 

teeming with joy, power and magic. As the shift occurs 

solutions will wondrously appear in which we were not 

previously conscious, alliances will be made, partnerships 

formed, lifelong friendships forged in not only families, 

neighborhoods and communities, but in cultures, religions, 

nations. This is our planet - we all have a role to play. 

To inspire others to reflect and awaken to our innate 

responsibility to take care of each other, our families, our 

neighborhoods, our community. We all have a deep 

yearning for safety and security. We all want to be 

respected and cared for. We all want to care for others 

and to make a meaningful difference, to participate, to be 

leaders. We must recognize that emergency 

management can never be all things to all people in the 

aftermath of a disaster, that true safety and resiliency lies 

in the awakened and empowered community. 

Chairperson

DP4VP - Disaster Preparedness for Vulnerable Populations 

sonoma-county.org/health/meetings/dp4vp.asp

Richard has worked in the field of disabilities since 1972. The organization he 

founded, DP4VP, promotes community empowerment and self-sufficiency in the 

face of disasters through networking, workshops, materials, and engagement. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 25

If as many people as possible are going to survive future 

disasters, what is needed is the awakening of an 

international cultural shift from dependency on others to 

individual, to communal, to planetary self-sufficiency. As a 

culture we tragically believe that disaster preparedness is 

really someone else’s job. We repeatedly react to 

disasters, rather than reflect on our innate responsibility to 

prepare, which in reality is as necessary as brushing our 

teeth, buckling our seat belts and refraining from drinking 

and driving.

Image courtesy of Richard Ruge 
Caitria O’Neill 

Q: What does the 

future of disaster 

resilience look like 

to you? 

Q: What is the biggest 

disaster resilience 

problem you are trying 

to solve? Why does it 

matter? 



Q: What do you want to 

inspire others to 

do? What is your “call to 

action” to the Whole 

Community?

I believe that harnessing the incredible power of mutual 

aid is possible in the near future of disaster resilience. In 

every community, after every disaster, we see 

communities come together and meet local needs with 

locally reported resources. With something as simple as a 

common toolkit, we can build the community 

preparedness and recovery efforts into emergency 

planning. 

My call to action is pretty simple. Organizational systems 

need to be put in place before a disaster. If you are trying 

to teach people a new system in a disaster zone, it is too 

late to do so efficiently. Resilience planning everywhere 

should include a focus on providing residents with tools to 

get involved more actively with preparedness and 

recovery. 

Co-founder & CEO

Recovers.org 

recovers.org

After an EF3 tornado struck her hometown of Monson, Massachusetts, Caitria and 

her team developed recovers.org, a recovery software framework that can be 

deployed before a disaster to prepare communities (see anecdote on p.14). 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 26

Our focus is creating a system that connects city and 

emergency managers to the rest of the community, 

before a disaster. By providing common tools for local 

churches, nonprofits, and residents to use for 

preparedness and recovery, we can help the city 

contain and quantify those efforts.
Ana-Marie Jones 

Q: What does the 

future of disaster 

resilience look like 

to you? 

Q: What is the biggest 

disaster resilience 

problem you are trying 

to solve? Why does it 

matter? 



Q: What do you want to 

inspire others to 

do? What is your “call to 

action” to the Whole 

Community?

In the future, readiness will not be measured by binders and 

plans, nor will resilience and readiness be framed around 

‘disasters.’ Readiness and resilience will be woven into 

everyday habits and behaviors, so that our everyday 

brilliance becomes our disaster resilience. In the future, we 

will invest the time, treasure and talents of our community in 

building our individual and collective capacity to solve 

problems, mobilize our assets to achieve goals, and we will 

build strong, united communities—where all people can 

survive, thrive and prosper in the face of disasters and any 

other challenges we face. 

I want to inspire everyone to embrace their inner 

MacGyver, to awaken their secret superhero, and band 

together to say no to fear, threat, bureaucracy and 

everything else that divides us and leaves us feeling 

vulnerable. Rather than merely saying “I’ve got a kit,” be 

proud to say “I’ve got your back!” Use whatever talent or 

ability you have to build stronger, more united, truly 

resilient communities. Every talent counts, every skill has a 

place in building unity and resilience. Walk this world 

feeling confident and safe—and pass it on. 

Executive Director

CARD - Collaborating Agencies Responding to Disasters 

CARDcanhelp.org

A nonprofit agency based in Oakland, CA and created in the wake of the 1989 Loma 

Prieta earthquake, CARD’s "Prepare to Prosper" fear-free, alternative preparedness 

programs provide customized emergency tools and services to nonprofits, faith 

agencies and others serving Access and Functional Needs (AFN) communities. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 27

Despite all the evidence proving that fear-based 

approaches do not create sustainable behavior change, 

as a nation we have spent decades using the threat of 

impending disaster as the backbone of preparedness 

messaging. These traditional approaches create 

unintended consequences, hurt emergency services 

agencies, waste valuable resources, and leave us 

unprepared. We are missing enormous opportunities to 

transform the health, wealth and resilience of our nation. 

Image courtesy of @CARDcanhelp 
Joanne Drummond 

Q: What does the 

future of disaster 

resilience look like 

to you? 

Q: What is the biggest 

disaster resilience 

problem you are trying 

to solve? Why does it 

matter? 



Q: What do you want to 

inspire others to 

do? What is your “call to 

action” to the Whole 

Community?

Many groups have missions that align with ours in one way 

or another and finding these critical intersections provides 

for mutual benefits. Where we have been able to find willing 

partners, our results have been remarkable. There is no 

point in creating a community fuel break, for instance, if 

there is not a commitment to maintain it. There will never be 

enough grant money to solve our issue—vegetation is 

growing every day! The future of disaster resilience in my 

mind means meeting multiple objectives across 

jurisdictional and community boundaries with sustainability 

of the objective at the top of mind. 

I want to inspire others to see the hazard that is present 

and work to establish a fire resilient landscape. We should 

be able to have a natural fire—from a lightning strike for 

instance—and have it be a positive impact in terms of our 

natural resources, not catastrophic. My call to action is to 

educate the community in order to have them understand 

what needs to be done and invest in their property for the 

greater good of our entire community and the environment 

we all treasure. 

Executive Director

Fire Safe Council of Nevada County, CA 

areyoufiresafe.com

In the foothills and mountains of the Sierra Nevada, Joanne works with multiple 

sectors of the Whole Community to reduce community vulnerability to wildfire 

hazard. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 28

Our mission is catastrophic wildfire mitigation. We 

recognize that fire is a natural part of our ecosystem, but 

due to the unnatural accumulation of vegetation as fuel to 

wildfire, our watersheds cannot withstand a wildfire 

without devastating effects. It is important because our 

community is embedded in the forest, and more and more 

people are leaving urbanized areas for the wildlands and 

a rural way of life. Catastrophic wildfire is devastating to 

our forestland, wildlife habitat, watersheds, air quality and 

threatens homes and lives.
Jase Wilson 

Q: What does the 

future of disaster 

resilience look like 

to you? 

Q: What is the biggest 

disaster resilience 

problem you are trying 

to solve? Why does it 

matter? 



Q: What do you want to 

inspire others to 

do? What is your “call to 

action” to the Whole 

Community?

Founder & CEO

Neighbor.ly

An MIT graduate in urban planning, Jase created a civic-oriented crowdfunding 

website to help people invest in places and civic projects they care about, and to 

help cities greenlight tough projects—while saving money on capital. These kinds 

of civic-minded tools can also support efforts that improve disaster resilience. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 29

With extreme weather becoming more frequent due to 

climate change, crowdfunding allows for people to get 

involved in a wide variety of public projects, from helping 

with disaster recovery, to building resiliency, to promoting 

climate change adaptation and mitigation. Neighbor.ly 

facilitates collaboration between individuals, communities, 

government, and the private sector to design and fund 

any number of projects like storm shelters, wetland 

restoration, or green infrastructure. 

D.I.Y. – Do It Yourself. Government is not just this big entity 

out there—it’s something you can interact with, you can 

work with, and you can initiate change yourself. The Internet 

has opened up so many possibilities, and now’s as good a 

time as any—don’t wait on an agency to step in save the 

day! By saying Do It Yourself, I’m not saying we should 

abandon government, but rather, we should help the 

government help us. It’s a powerful idea that can lead to an 

improved quality of life for everyone. D.I.Y. 

The future is a world where people participate in 

manifesting their own resilience. Where communities band 

together to slow the pace of climate change by investing in 

green infrastructure, and by funding and building their own 

wind turbines, solar arrays, and alternative modes of 

transport. Where people are empowered to imagine, design 

and fund thousands of little interventions, that together 

make a big difference. In this future, the civic project is 

humanized – people want to use it, take care of it, and 

advocate for it. That’s the true cake of crowdfunding. The 

money is all icing. The cake is the buy-in from the people. 
Kristin Pierre 

Q: What does the 

future of disaster 

resilience look like 

to you? 

Q: What is the biggest 

disaster resilience 

problem you are trying 

to solve? Why does it 

matter? 



Q: What do you want to 

inspire others to 

do? What is your “call to 

action” to the Whole 

Community?

Program Manager, EPA

Economy, Energy, and the Environment (E3) 

e3.gov

Kristin is one of the leaders behind E3: a multi-agency initiative dedicated to supporting manufacturing leadership. It is 

an innovative approach to inter-agency collaboration and private sector integration. While not explicitly disasterfocused, the outcomes achieved by E3 support the underlying pillars of disaster resilience. 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Big Problems. Strong Leaders. Bold Action.| Page 30

In an era of reduced budgets and a slowly recovering 

economy, the Federal government should be finding ways 

to innovate and reinvent itself. We need to look at all 

opportunities to improve how we serve the American people 

and support our economy. A more dynamic government 

would enhance disaster resilience. We could do this by 

expanding on the E3 model—creating a mechanism for 

government, private, philanthropic and non-profit 

stakeholders that have the same common agenda to come 

together to learn and leverage each others’ resources and 

expertise. 

While not set up to address disaster resilience directly, the 

structure and purpose of our program apply to nearly all 

government agencies. E3 is designed to bring together the 

many technical services of the Federal government into a 

stronger and more coherent package for the private sector. 

All the agencies involved in E3 have a common agenda: to 

help manufacturers thrive, reduce their environmental 

impact, and stay in the US—and specifically in their 

communities. By working together to bring our services 

under one umbrella, we are able to break down silos, 

provide comprehensive service offerings, and empower local 

communities to design solutions that make sense for them. 

Ask "why not?" first! Innovation in a large organization like a 

Federal agency is difficult. But difficulty should not be a 

barrier to action. The E3 team took the challenge of 

innovating a solution to a problem. We asked “Why not?” 

and that set us off an a journey of discovery and success. 

You have to challenge the status quo and take a risk or 

nothing ever changes. Our “call to action” needs to be to 

act. Move the ball forward! 
 + 

+ 

Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Overview of this Section

+ 

In this section...

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Recap & Outlook | Page 31

Recap of 2012

& 

A Look Ahead

The aim of this section is to provide context for how, building on the foundation of its work since 2010, SFI 

has transitioned toward a focus on practical applications for foresight. It also gives an overview of where 

SFI is headed in 2013 and beyond.

The Recap of 2012 covers key SFI activities from the past year and spotlights notable accomplishments. 

The Look Ahead distills onto one page SFI’s trajectory for 2013 and beyond, summarizing the major 

areas of work that will structure and guide how we plan to bring our body of knowledge into practice.

SFI is coordinated by FEMA in conjunction with the emergency management community writ large. We 

owe much to the pioneering work of the U.S. Coast Guard’s Project Evergreen. Project Evergreen

provided a scenario planning foundation, which SFI expanded and oriented around disaster management. 

Over the past years, SFI has deepened these intra-departmental roots, continuing to collaborate with 

USCG and engaging with broader foresight efforts under the DHS umbrella. In particular, SFI provided 

substantial contributions to DHS efforts to characterize the current and future strategic environment 

leading up to the development of the next Quadrennial Homeland Security Review (QHSR). Intradepartmental collaboration around strategic foresight will continue to be a key part of SFI moving ahead.

 Review of Major SFI 2012 Activities and 

Accomplishments...........................Page 32

 Outlook for SFI in 2013....................Page 35

Image courtesy of Flickr user Stuck in Customs

Image courtesy of Flickr user d_pham
Recap Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Recap | Page 32

SFI’s work is the product of a Whole Community effort, aimed at driving our Nation toward more resilient 

futures. It is only possible with the participation of a diverse network of more than 900 professionals from 

across the United States, spanning many fields and disciplines, as well as our international colleagues. 

This SFI Highlights document serves as an important launchpad as we set out to move beyond the 

world of analysis and theory toward the real world of practice. But before looking ahead to SFI’s plan for 

2013 and beyond, it’s important to reflect on how we’ve transitioned toward this focus on practical 

applications, and spotlight the key activities from 2012 that put us on this trajectory (see timeline). 

The broader context of SFI

Launched in 2010, SFI is a transformative, community-wide effort to create an enduring foresight 

capability. Its fundamental purpose is to advance strategic planning and thinking about the future, to 

prepare the community both for emerging challenges and the key opportunities presented by our 

changing environment. A critical and enduring element of this foresight capability is to continuously 

assess and understand the factors driving change in our world. Our analysis is oriented toward gaining 

insights about how these drivers of change will impact the emergency management field in the United 

States over the next 20 years (with our latest analysis of key near-term trends captured in Feature 1, 

Pages 1-11). We believe that thinking more broadly, rigorously, and over a longer timeframe will help us:

 Hedge against uncertainty

 Avoid strategic surprises

 Promote information sharing across disciplines and organizations

 Understand what changes may affect the future of emergency and disaster management, and 

their impacts and implications 

 Prepare and plan to more effectively operate in our future environment 

Our work from 2010-2011 established the foundation for SFI. Although we’ve always strived for SFI to

help practitioners in the real world, as with many “futures” projects, the starting point is closer to the 

analytic world of process and theory. The foundation for SFI was set through 3 key parts: 

1. Building the analytic process

2. Identifying the 9 critical SFI drivers of change most significantly influencing our collective 

futures in emergency management (see Appendix A) 

3. Broadening awareness about SFI and our findings through engagement with the Whole 

Community 

This work—including intensive scenario-planning workshops and outreach activities with practitioners 

and experts—culminated with our capstone Crisis Response and Disaster Resilience in 2030 report 

issued in January 2012. 

Recap of SFI in 2012

Our efforts throughout 2012 centered on bringing to life the contents of our capstone report. This meant 

broadening awareness about and engagement with SFI, as well as sparking discussion and catalyzing 

action around the emergency management community’s future strategic needs. The result of our 

activities and experiences, which influenced the design and content of the 3 Features contained in this 

document, brought us a step closer toward developing immediately practical applications for our 

collective foresight. We learned that our work to date provides a solid body of knowledge about our 

changing strategic environment and what it means for disaster management. But more guidance, 

support, and tools are needed to help make SFI truly actionable—a focus that shaped this document 

and that we’ll carry through 2013 and beyond. The timeline to the left provides a summary of the major 

activities and accomplishments from 2012 that brought us to this point.

As a major component of SFI in 2012, much of our efforts were dedicated to creating space for 

collaboration and dialogue around the future of disaster management and our community’s future 

strategic needs. To this end, we have and will continue to use various media, virtual collaboration tools, 

and in-person meetings or conferences to promote engagement. In 2012, SFI hosted 5 webinars that 

drew an average of 85 participants during each session (next page). We also participated in 26 events

with groups and organizations across FEMA and emergency management community.

JAN

Annual International 

Disaster Conference 

& Exposition

MAR

Annual Transportation & Infrastructure 

Convention

FEB

FEMA National 

Advisory Council (NAC)

SFI contributes to DHS’s 

strategic planning 

process, including work 

on the Current Strategic 

Environment 

APR

National Science & 

Technology Council, 

Infrastructure SubCommittee Meeting 

Naval Post-Graduate 

School uses SFI in 

experiential strategic 

planning seminars 

MAY

National Science &

Technology Council, 

Disaster Reduction 

Sub-Committee Meeting 

Annual Voluntary 

Organizations Active 

in Disaster (VOAD) 

Conference

National Homeland 

Security Conference, 

Urban Areas Security 

Initiative

National Homeland 

Security Consortium

National Association of 

Amateur Radio publishes 

implications of SFI 

findings for members 

SFI Engagement & Outcomes

Event Key Accomplishment

The Strategic Foresight Initiative 
Recap Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Recap | Page 33

Crisis Response & Disaster Resilience in 2030 January 26

The January 26, 2012 webinar featured David Kaufman, Associate 

Administrator of Policy, Program Analysis, and International Affairs in a 

discussion about the SFI findings presented in the Crisis Response 

and Disaster Resilience 2030 report. Key topics included:

 Discussion of the 9 critical SFI drivers of change

 An overview of the 15 future strategic needs

 A glimpse of a strategically-prepared emergency 

management community in 2030 

The 5 Essential Capabilities June 5

The June 5, 2012 webinar focused on the 5 strategic needs classified as "Essential Capabilities." Ms. 

Regina Moran, Director Youth Preparedness Programs at FEMA and Mr. Albert H. Fluman from the 

Emergency Management Institute (EMI) discussed the role and contributions of their programs and 

initiatives. 

Innovative Models & Tools August 26

The August 26, 2012 webinar focused on the 6 strategic needs 

classified as "Innovative Models and Tools." Dr. Sophia Liu, 

Mendenhall postdoctoral research fellow at the U.S. Geological Survey 

(USGS), discussed the opportunities and challenges with integrating 

official and crowdsourced crisis information based on the evolutionary 

developments in the field of crisis mapping. 

The FEMA External Affairs Digital Communications team presented 

FEMA’s perspective on the current and anticipated use of social media 

platforms for emergency and disaster communication tools.

 

Dynamic Partnerships, Part I September 26

The September 26, 2012 webinar covered the 4 strategic needs classified as “Dynamic Partnerships.” 

Jacqueline Yannacci, Community Resilience Program Manager at the American Red Cross National 

Headquarters discussed the Community Resilience Strategy and pilot projects. Daniel Hahn, Santa Rosa 

County Plans Chief, discussed the Escarosa Business Continuity Initiative that is working with the 

business community enhance disaster resiliency and continuity.

Dynamic Partnerships, Part II October 24

The October 24, 2012 webinar also covered the 4 Dynamic 

Partnerships strategic needs. Jeanie Moore, Senior Advisor for FEMA’s 

Private Sector Division of the Office of External Affairs discussed the 

Agency’s efforts to engage the private sector throughout the spectrum 

of emergency management. Kevin M. Burr, Program Specialist with the 

National Disaster Recovery Planning Division introduced the National 

Disaster Recovery Framework (NDRF) and how its core principles 

advance our future strategic needs.

 

JUL

FEMA National 

Advisory Council (NAC)

Annual Natural 

Hazards Research 

& Applications 

Workshop

U.S. Northern 

Command Conference: 

“Building Resilience 

Through Public-Private 

Partnership”

SFI collaborates with the 

FEMA Youth 

Preparedness Division & 

Community Emergency 

Response Teams 

(CERT) to integrate 

futures-thinking into 

communications 

SFI contributes to DHS 

work on the Future 

Strategic Environment

Annual Emergency 

Management in Higher 

Education Conference, 

Emer. Mgmt. Institute 

Germany Federal 

Ministry of Interior, 

Civil Protection and 

Disaster Response

European Union 

FOCUS (Foresight 

Security Scenarios) 

Transatlantic Wkshp

NASA & U.S. Army 

Corps of Engineers 

Inter-Agency Forum on 

Climate Change 

Adaptation & Impacts 

SFI 2012 Webinars SFI incorporates 

long-range planning 

language into the 

Presidential Policy 

Directive-8 

MAY JUN

Visit the SFI website for more information about past and future SFI webinar events. 
FEMA National 

Preparedness 

Symposium 

SFI leads Futures 

Exercise at FEMA Sr. 

Leadership Offsite

AUG

Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Recap | Page 34

During a Senior Leadership Offsite on August 9, 

2012, 40 FEMA officials participated in a 

discussion-based SFI-led futures exercise. The

exercise included the FEMA Administrator and 

Deputy Administrator, the Regional Administrators, 

and Component leadership from across the 

Agency. The exercise was designed to analyze 

major cross-cutting challenges, questions, issues, 

and opportunities with respect to FEMA operations, 

business practices, and the Agency’s mission to 

ensure the Nation’s resilience in the face of future 

disasters.

The discussions were structured around a pair of 

“vignettes” that described two alternative futures set 

in the year 2025. The vignettes were informed by 

ongoing SFI work involving long-term trend/driver 

analysis and scenario planning. The exercise was 

designed to accomplish the following three objectives:

1. Explore a range of strategic challenges and opportunities for FEMA 

2. Distill the most significant issues and questions that are critical to FEMA’s future operating 

environment

3. Outline strategic guidance to shape Agency strategy and planning and inform development of 

FEMA’s next Strategic Plan and the Agency’s input into the DHS Quadrennial Homeland 

Security Review (QHSR)

High-level Takeaways

Senior Leadership provided insights and guidance around these three key themes:

1. Strategic-level issues that describe characteristics likely to significantly shape the future 

operating environment. The issues—increasing fiscal constraints, major community-level 

changes, rising social inequalities, and new/unfamiliar risks—at first blush may not appear 

directly related to core FEMA missions. But they are in fact intrinsically connected to the Nation's 

resilience. Together, these four strategic-level issues offer a compelling backdrop for the 

Agency’s planning and strategy efforts—a lens from Senior Leadership that can help shape 

discussions about strategic priorities, resourcing decisions, and actions over the medium and 

long term. 

2. Organizational-level issues that provide FEMA with three overarching principles that should 

guide FEMA’s direction over the medium and long term. FEMA has ample influence and 

authority to leverage these principles—strengthen private sector roles and relationships, take 

Whole Community emergency management to the next level, and effectively manage FEMA’s 

mission space—to continuously adapt and improve the delivery of emergency management 

service to face future challenges. 

3. Ground-level issues that offer potential strategies that will help FEMA and the Whole 

Community enhance national preparedness and resilience in the face of disruptive change. With 

the benefit of a robust understanding of emerging issues and future requirements, FEMA can 

confidently identify strategic investments that will enable its future success, including building 

stronger analytic capabilities, ensuring a high-caliber workforce, embracing technology, and 

innovating to solve funding challenges.

Featured Key Accomplishment: Futures Exercise 

OCT

American Red Cross 

Preparedness 

Academy 

InterAgency Board

FEMA National 

Advisory Council (NAC)

International Assn of 

Emergency Managers 

(IAEM) Meeting 

FEMA Federal 

Preparedness 

Coordinators Meeting

Conference Board of 

Canada, Council on 

Emergency Mgmt 

Wilson Center Event: 

Grassroots to Gov’t in 

Disaster Mgmt 

SEP JUL

SFI inspires new 

course offered by 

FEMA’s EMI: 

Emergency Mgmt. for 

the 21st Century (E682)

SFI informs FEMA’s 

input into DHS QHSR

Recap

Multi-Nat’l Community 

Resilience Working 

Group

NATO, Civil Emrgncy 

Planning Committee 

DEC
 

Outlook Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Outlook | Page 35 

As SFI continues into its fourth year, we build on our progress to date and forge ahead to make SFI continuously more 

practical and actionable. Research and analysis; outreach and engagement; and strategy formulation and planning will 

remain the backbone of this foresight initiative. Our focus now will be increasingly directed toward bringing these elements 

and our body of knowledge into practice.

To this end, we’ve developed an SFI Strategy Map (see below) to structure and guide how we make this happen. Clearly 

defined at the top is our strategic focus for 2013 and beyond: Enabling FEMA and the Whole Community to Put Foresight 

Into Practice. All of our efforts will be oriented to achieve outcomes that serve this focus on practical applications. Our 

primary buckets of work, or workstreams, are organized around four strategic goals, which are to: 

1. Advance FEMA and the Whole Community’s knowledge of future trends and drivers of change

2. Actively use and promote foresight in FEMA planning and decision-making processes 

3. Identify and support regional-to-local applications of strategic foresight

4. Provide tools to facilitate use of foresight across the Whole Community 

In order to sustain foresight for FEMA and the Whole Community, the foundation of our work is based on continually looking 

into the future, understanding what is driving change in our world, and gaining insights about what it means for our Nation’s 

resilience (Goal 1). One product of this workstream, the synthesis of our trends analysis and research highlights, is captured 

in Feature 1. Voices of inspiration and innovation—of individuals working to turn breakthrough ideas into action—are profiled 

in Feature 3. A key part of putting such knowledge to use is to integrate it into the development of FEMA strategy, policy, 

programming, and operations (Goal 2). The SFI-led exercise conducted at the FEMA Senior Leadership Offsite in August 

2012 (see p. 34) is one example of this goal in action. 

Perhaps SFI’s greatest contribution to the Whole Community is to spotlight on-the-ground applications of the 15 strategic 

needs (Goal 3). We believe such examples—like the 10 showcased in Feature 2—serve as potential models of future 

capabilities, tools, and partnerships needed to enhance national resilience in the face of whatever unfolds in the future. 

Putting all of these pieces together, the critical link in building our collective capacity to develop and sustain strategic 

foresight is the provision of easy-to-use tools and processes (Goal 4). Developing these tools—like exercise development 

toolkits used at the Senior Leadership Offsite or templates for using trends analyses in planning sessions —and making them 

widely accessible is essential to help individuals and organizations put foresight into practice. As we work toward building 

more resilient futures, SFI’s work through 2013 will be guided by these four strategic goals.

SFI Strategy Map: 

 Provide tools to facilitate 

use of foresight across 

FEMA and the Whole 

Community 

 

Foundation 

for Sustaining 

Foresight: 

Outcome that 

Delivers 

Value: 

Strategic 

Focus: 

Advancing Knowledge of Future Trends and Drivers 

 Environmental scanning 

& trends analysis 

 Knowledge-sharing 

forums 

 Inter-disciplinary 

networks 

On-the-ground 

Applications 

Value Proposition to FEMA and the Whole Community 

 Collaboration w/ 

subject matter experts 

FEMA Planning 

& Decisions 

 Actively use and promote 

foresight in FEMA 

planning and decisionmaking processes 

Foresight 

Tools 

 An emergency management community that is better positioned 

and prepared for whatever challenges and opportunities the future holds 

Enabling FEMA and the Whole Community to Put Foresight into Practice 

Four SFI Strategic Goals 

2 3 4

1

 Identify and support 

applications of foresight, 

especially at regionalto-local levels 

Workstreams

to Create 

Value: 

SFI Outlook for 2013 and Beyond 

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI)
 

Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) | Page 36 

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+ 

+ 

Toward More Resilient Futures: SFI Highlights

+ In this part...

Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) Appendices | Page 37 

Appendices

Appendix A – Sustaining Foresight...........Page 38 

Appendix B – The 15 SFI Strategic Needs...Page 40

Appendix C – Research References..........Page 41 

 The 9 SFI drivers in Feature 1

 Full descriptions and context for all 15 

SFI Strategic Needs

 Links to publically-accessible resources 

that informed the analysis behind 

Feature 1

Overview of this Section

The SFI Highlights was designed as a user-centric document, focused on delivering the most readable 

and essential content right up front. Each section of the document offers only brief explanations behind 

the material and the thinking that went into producing it. Only the bottom-line information the reader needs 

to understand each piece. As a result, some important context and linkage between the content of this 

document and the broader work of SFI were glossed over. 

The three appendices presented here bridge this gap—they bring together, into one document, the most 

critical resources from previous SFI work that contributed to the content of the SFI Highlights. 

 Appendix A provides an overview of the framework behind our analysis of the “recent emerging trends” 

and describes how the 9 SFI drivers play into the narratives of Feature 1 – Page 38 

 Appendix B provides more details about 15 SFI Strategic Needs referenced in the 10 anecdotes in 

Feature 2. The 15 Strategic Needs serve as guideposts to inform our planning, investments, and 

actions so that we can deal with the changing demands of the future operating environment – Page 40

 Appendix C provides the live hyperlinks behind the underlined text in Feature 1, which link to the 

research used in our trends analysis – Page 41 
Appendix A 

Appendix A: Sustaining Foresight | Page 38 

In an age of increasing complexity and uncertainty, there are many forces of change, or “drivers,” reshaping our world. In Feature 1 – 

Sustaining Foresight, we’ve synthesized our analysis of these change-drivers and our future strategic environment into (what is hopefully) 

engaging narratives. These narratives are built around 4 vignettes that each contain a pair of “recent emerging trends.” The dueling, yet 

interconnected themes tease out how various trends may play out over the coming years and, if they roughly follow the patterns of any given 

storyline, how they may ultimately drive us down very different paths. We believed that this approach to reflecting on recent events offered the 

most dynamic—and perhaps most memorable—way to provoke our community to think critically about the future. This appendix puts this 

framework and the background of our analysis into the broader context of Strategic Foresight Initiative and describes how the 9 SFI drivers play 

into the narratives of Feature 1.

Analytic Foundation for SFI

As a part of SFI’s scenario planning and trends analysis, SFI employs an analytical approach used commonly by organizations such as the 

U.S. National Intelligence Council to identify macro-level factors that have significant influence in the world. These macro-level factors fall into 

five dimensions—Social, Technological, Environmental, Economic, and Political (STEEP). Using this STEEP approach, the SFI community of 

practitioners and subject matter experts identified 9 major drivers of change (categorized along the 5 STEEP dimensions as shown in the 

diagram below) that will likely have the most significant influence on disaster management in the U.S. over the next 20 years.

The potential changes will likely complicate the 

future emergency management environment, 

significantly alter how members of our 

community perform their jobs in the future, and 

require creative, and collaborative thinking and 

action. 

Framework for Analysis of Feature 1

Rather than look individually across these nine 

drivers to see what new things we could learn 

about our future strategic environment, we 

explored different ways to assess the interplay of 

these drivers in the real world. From our 

literature review and expert elicitation, we 

recognized the most influential recent trends 

ended up clustering around dominant themes. 

And frequently the themes reflected big 

theories—like the Great Stagnation of the U.S. 

economy—put forward by thought leaders in

recent years. So what we ended up with were 

four vignettes—focused on the Economic, 

Environmental, Technological, and Security 

dimensions—that offered the most concise yet 

comprehensive and balanced look into our 

immediate planning horizon. Nonetheless, the 

four vignettes are not intended to be exhaustive 

of all the possible trends and implications that 

affect emergency and disaster management. It is 

likely that some key trends or implications didn’t 

receive enough mention, or were left off entirely. 

And that’s where we turn to the broader 

community—for your input and perspective. We 

hope that this offers a starting point for deeper 

dialogue and analysis.

Sustaining Foresight
 

Appendix A 

Appendix A: Sustaining Foresight | Page 39 

How the 9 SFI Drivers Played Out in Feature 1

Similarly, as the table below describes, the 9 SFI drivers helped form the analytical structure of the four vignettes depicted in Feature 1 – 

Sustaining Foresight. All of the drivers are represented in the vignettes in some respect. The following four drivers, however, play very 

prominent roles in shaping the themes: 

 Government Budgets is a prominent feature of the vignette category Economy.

 Climate Change is dealt with head-on in the Environment vignettes.

 The Technology Innovation and Dependency Driver is explored in the two vignettes related to the Technology vignette. 

 Evolving Terrorist Threat is captured in the Security section, particularly the theme labeled Fears of a New Age. 

Important elements of each of the other five SFI drivers are sprinkled throughout each of the eight vignettes, thus providing broad and deep 

driver coverage. In all, the original nine SFI drivers continue to inform SFI team thinking about categories of threats and challenges facing the 

Whole Community. 

SFI Driver Elaboration in Vignettes 

Changing Role of the 

Individual

An affluent and fast-paced society driven by competitive forces and technological innovation could weaken 

community bonds—and even national identity. See American Revival (Pages 2-3).Technology has broken 

down hierarchical barriers to engagement and enabled individuals to play a greater role in shaping society. 

See Technotopia (Pages 6-7).

Climate Change What if recent harsh weather is not a fluke and once-a-century storms occur much more frequently? See 

Out of the Frying Pan (Pages 4-5). Reasonable steps can be taken now to both optimize climate change 

preparedness and simultaneously deal with other critical national challenges. See Making Lemonade 

(Pages 4-5).

Critical Infrastructure Prolonged economic stagnation and fiscal pressures put infrastructure renewal at serious risk. See The 

Great Stagnation (Pages 2-3). Meanwhile, are our health system and emergency services up to the 

challenge of a global pandemic? See Threats, Reloaded (Pages 8-9).

Evolving Terrorist 

Threat

Is the terror threat waning, merely in pause mode or simply changing? Cyberspace may be the next major 

terror venue. The Sandy Hook school shootings shed light on another terrifying dimension. See Fears of a 

New Age (Pages 8-9). 

Global 

Interdependencies

In a highly integrated world, there is no insulation from nation-state conflicts, civil and regional instabilities, 

or age-old threats like pandemics. See Threats, Reloaded (Pages 8-9). While the global economy remains 

deeply interconnected, new dimensions are reversing older trends like outsourcing—giving new life to 

domestic industries and national efforts. See The American Revival (Pages 3-4). 

Government Budgets U.S. fiscal developments will have big and complex impacts on emergency management plans and 

operations – at all levels of government. See both American Revival and Great Stagnation (both on Pages 

3-4). 

Technological 

Innovation and 

Dependency

Technological innovation is spawning revolutionary new means of production—like 3-D printing—and whole 

new business models built on social media and “crowdsourcing.” See Technotopia (Pages 6-7). But social 

interests and government services may not benefit, as tech giants seek to lock-in customers into their 

proprietary “ecosystems.” See Technical Difficulties (Pages 6-7).

Universal Access to 

and Use of Information

Will the benefits of the emerging high-tech era be shared equally? See Technical Difficulties (Pages 6-7). 

And how can emergency managers leapfrog ahead of legacy information systems and processes to reap 

the upside of “big data?” See Technotopia (Pages 6-7). 

US Demographic 

Shifts

Demographic considerations touch on all facets of emergency and disaster management. An aging 

population can be a more vulnerable and often a more isolated one. See Technical Difficulties (Pages 6-7). 

And harsh weather events of the last two years illustrate the complex risks and costs associated with 

coastal over-development. See Frying Pan (Pages 4-5).
 

Appendix B 

Appendix B: 15 Strategic Needs | Page 40

The 15 SFI Strategic Needs resulted from a 2011 scenario-planning workshop. Representatives from FEMA, along with a diverse set of 

disaster management professionals, analyzed the strategic implications of five very different and plausible future operating environments 

(“scenarios”). The 15 Strategic Needs described below are the essential common elements of those implications. As such, they provide reliable 

guidance for a range of decisions with long-term, strategic implications, which emergency managers face on a regular basis. In other words, 

emergency managers can confidently embrace these strategic needs today, knowing that they have been rigorously evaluated in the context of 

hypothetical, but realistic, future worlds.

SFI Strategic Needs Future Context for Strategic Needs Essential Capabilities

1 Develop capabilities to address 

dynamic population shifts 

Emergency managers will be faced with complex demographics shifts as the U.S. 

population increases, ages, and becomes more culturally and linguistically diverse. 

2 

Practice omni-directional 

knowledge sharing 

The proliferation of information from all sources intensifies the need to make 

emergency management information useful and accessible. The public’s role as an 

information source will be vital. 

3 Infuse EM practices & skills 

across the entire educational 

experience 

In an expectedly tight fiscal environment, schools will be critically important channels 

for promoting sound prevention practices, especially in the face of complex threats, like 

pandemics. 

4 

Build a shared EM future vision 

with appropriate plans & 

contingencies 

The SFI scenarios depict increasingly complex, rapidly changing worlds. Emergency 

managers will have to collaboratively explore innovative solutions as it prepares for the 

future.

5 

Leverage volunteer capabilities 

across all EM phases 

Emergency and disaster management resources, especially personnel, are apt to be 

stretched in future operating environments marked by tight budgets and/or more 

frequent national emergencies. 

Innovative Models & Tools

6 Adopt new risk management tools 

to manage complex event 

consequences 

Current risk management tools and processes are already outdated. For one, current 

risk management models do not account for climate change impacts we are 

experiencing today. 

7 Employ alternative surge models Chronic fiscal pressures require new approaches and models for marshaling resources 

to deal with the possibility of more frequent and complex emergencies. 

8 

Promote EM inter-operability 

across all boundaries 

Emergency managers will likely have to do more with few resources. Resource-sharing 

arrangements across jurisdictions—equipment, personnel, know-how, etc.—are

essential.

9 Plan around shared interests for 

maximum use of EM capabilities 

Current regional planning approaches are limited. Planners need to look beyond shortterm concerns and narrow stovepipes and capitalize on opportunities for collaboration. 

10 

Remediate vulnerabilities across 

EM supply chains and critical 

infrastructure 

Global and national supply chains for emergency management may be vulnerable to 

infrastructure degradation, interruptions in foreign trade, cyber attacks, and changes in 

warehousing and logistics practices. 

Dynamic Partnerships

11 

Influence development of 

emerging, EM-relevant 

technologies 

Technology will become an even more essential element across emergency and 

disaster mission functions—information management, communications, sensing, 

transportation & logistics, and much more. 

12 Empower individuals & 

communities to play a greater role 

throughout all phases of disasters 

Resource constrains and reduced government capacity challenge individuals and 

communities to assume greater responsibility for emergency planning and response. 

13 Proactively engage business in all 

EM phases, especially policy 

development 

Strong private sector partnerships will be essential, especially in policy and planning. 

Business leads in many critical technologies and processes, such as data management 

and logistics. 

14 Intensify disaster-response 

collaboration with Canada and 

Mexico 

US shares many interests with Canada and Mexico are growing around immigration, 

border security, drought, water management, disease surveillance, and critical 

infrastructure. Potential for fruitful collaboration and win-win solutions abound.

15 

Enable access to military 

capabilities to augment capacity 

as needed

Complex emergency and disaster situations, including WMDs and cyber-attacks, 

provide merit for broader access to the military for both surge capacity and specialized 

skill sets. 

The 15 SFI Strategic Needs 
Appendix C 

Appendix C: Research References | Page 41

All of the underlined text in Feature 1 – Sustaining Foresight, between Pages 2-9, contained live links to the research used in our trends 

analysis. The links refer readers to accessible materials (not gated behind pay walls) that come from popular and credible media sources. That 

includes magazine articles, TED presentations, blog pieces, as well as a few academic references. We organized the links to mirror the content 

in Feature 1. Not all of the links embedded in Feature 1 are included in the list below; we pulled out the most significant ones that support the 

defining characteristics of each theme. Long links have been shortened using the goo.gl tool to make them easier to input manually. 

The American Revival The U.S. still draws the world’s top talent to its universities, remains a hub for innovation, and promotes a 

top-tier competiveness environment for business (Universities, US News: http://goo.gl/osvlO; Competitiveness, World Economic 

Forum: http://goo.gl/p3WjK) The economics of globalization are starting to shift, making America a place in which to invest and 

produce again (See The Atlantic: http://goo.gl/047Uc).

Taming the deficit – Leading economists assert that improving underlying conditions in the U.S. economy, led by resurgent 

housing market and gains in the labor market, indicate a likely acceleration in economic growth in 2013. This growth can help

shrink deficits and make the national debt manageable again. 

! Acceleration of economic growth in 2013, The Conference Board: http://goo.gl/w5uZj 

! Outlook for sustained U.S. growth over medium term, The Conference Board: http://goo.gl/Aa30A 

Driving innovation – Having mastered the “startup ecosystem”, Silicon Valley remains the world’s mecca and a benchmark 

for innovation (See: Visually infographic - http://visual.ly/why-startups-fail). The culture of innovation is spreading to 

government, boosting the efficacy of public services. 

! “Startup ecosystem” and innovation, AOL Tech: http://goo.gl/T5H3R 

! Culture of innovation in public service, PBS News Hour: http://goo.gl/1akwp 

! Government OpenData initiative, Data.Gov: http://www.data.gov 

Resourcefulness – The tightened budget environment has driven greater efficiency and focus on performance and 

outcomes. This shift may result in producing “more with less” throughout all sectors, including government. 

! Performance- and outcome-driven government, Performance.Gov: http://goo.gl/7rKFz 

! Culture shift toward outcome-based performance, Department of Homeland Security: http://goo.gl/6yBgA 

! Innovative funding models like the Race to the Top program, Center for American Progress: http://goo.gl/G2DKy 

Pent-up capacity – A future flood of investments from companies with strong cashflows will help unleash a new cycle of 

economic growth and create demand for workers. 

! Companies have cash, potential to invest, National Public Radio: http://goo.gl/tMNJ0 

The Great Stagnation Some experts argue we’ve consumed most of the “low-hanging fruit” that enabled our country’s long-term 

growth, (See The Economist: http://goo.gl/pbyvQ). Concerns remain over high debt, middle-class job security, weak GDP growth, 

and fewer booming industries (See The Atlantic: http://goo.gl/qUaBW). 

Slower job recovery – The last three economic recoveries have produced historically low job growth—raising questions 

about the longer-term economic landscape. 

! Slower job recoveries, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: http://goo.gl/96z60

! Skills “gap” in many sectors, Brookings Institution: http://goo.gl/MYRWp 

! Historic patterns of U.S. economic growth, VOX, Centre for Economic Policy Research: http://goo.gl/6wmXn

Hardening inequality – Many measures reveal a growing gap between the so-called haves, and have-nots, including 

concentration of income at the top, high levels of youth unemployment, growing gaps in life expectancy between the rich and 

poor. 

Research References

Economy Theme

Links were active as of 4/2013
Appendix C 

Appendix C: Research References | Page 42

! Income inequality, Bloomberg Business Week: http://goo.gl/sgax4

! Youth unemployment, Financial Times: http://www.ft.com/indepth/youth-unemployment

! Life-expectancy gap between rich and poor, The National Bureau of Economic Research: http://goo.gl/90XcG 

Money problems – The struggling economy has further squeezed budgets across all levels of government, and austere fiscal 

conditions are likely to extend into the foreseeable future. 

! Budget squeeze, International Monetary Fund: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2012/wp12184.pdf 

! 20-50 year budget projections, the Congressional Budget Office: http://1.usa.gov/OEtWts 

The end of big thinking – There are real consequences to the partisanship of our political system. It is increasingly to garner 

the consensus needed to pursue essential government projects. The fear is that we may seed the next crisis with delayed

action and band-aid solutions.

! Implications of government inaction, American Enterprise Institute: http://goo.gl/sNs5q 

! Systemic challenges, Mostly Economics blog: http://goo.gl/z77ak 

! The next crisis, Quartz new media magazine: http://goo.gl/SChKy 

Out of the Frying Pan This trajectory points to higher vulnerability for a the Nation, unless we move now to take substantive 

preventative and adaptive actions. 

Unforeseen accelerations – Arctic sea ice shrunk to its smallest extent on record in 2012, which was the warmest year ever 

recorded in the contiguous United States. These accelerations in warming and melting are occurring at a faster rate than most

scientists anticipated. 

! 2012 State of the Climate, NOAA: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/ 

! Arctic sea ice melting, New York Times: http://goo.gl/949wu 

! Climate models have underestimated warming, melting, and sea-level rise, Science: http://goo.gl/ZCVX4 

No drive to act – At the 2012 climate meeting in Doha, Qatar, negotiators were unable to forge an emissions reduction 

agreement that would keep global temperature increases below 2°C – a threshold that most climate scientists believe is the 

outer bound of “safe” warming. Without meaningful action to reduce emissions, impacts may increase in magnitude over the 

medium and long-term as warming reaches 4-6°C by the end of this century. 

! Factors influencing public concern for climate change, Harvard Shorenstein Center: http://goo.gl/DL0Lo

! Is it possible to limit warming to 2°C?, United Nations Environment Program: http://goo.gl/5xfsp 

! What rate of warming can be expected?, Price Waterhouse Coopers: http://goo.gl/n8s7Q 

Critical infrastructure – Our 18 critical infrastructure sectors are vulnerable to various environmental changes. The U.S. 

power grid is especially vulnerable to an increase in heatwaves, the deadliest natural hazard in the United States. 

! Critical infrastructure sectors are vulnerable, DHS: http://www.dhs.gov/critical-infrastructure-sectors 

! U.S. power grid may be the most fragile aspect of U.S. infrastructure, Public Radio International: http://goo.gl/T37eR 

Increasing exposure – The increase in population growth located in areas exposed to extreme events has affected the 

insurance industry. Some companies have pulled out of dangerous areas, putting pressure on the public to manage the 

increased risk faced by these areas. 

! Population growth in the wildland-urban interface, Journal of Rural Studies: http://goo.gl/68DDs 

! As premiums rise, Florida senior citizens consider going without insurance, Tampa Bay Times: http://goo.gl/tdDce 

! The National Flood Insurance Program overview for Congress, Congressional Research Service: http://goo.gl/4X5RF

! New York Times discussion about the role of public funding in vulnerable places: http://goo.gl/ckAV8

Environment Theme 
Appendix C 

Appendix C: Research References | Page 43 

Making Lemonade Opposing dynamics propel the U.S. to make the best of a difficult situation. New technologies aid in response 

and recovery efforts (See FEMA: http://fema.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html), and extreme events have forced government to 

seriously focus on adaptation planning and reducing risk exposure. In the wake of events like Sandy, public support for climate 

action is growing, and states, cities, and businesses are collaborating on adaptation and mitigation initiatives.

(Momentary) positives – Melting sea ice has opened new Arctic shipping routes and enabled extraction of useful minerals 

and oil deposits. Crop yields in certain areas of North America are expected to rise initially, before decreasing due to 

precipitation and temperature shifts. Emissions from increased transportation in the sensitive Arctic may accelerate warming 

and melting, and burning of oil and gas uncovered in the Arctic will contribute to the carbon cycle. For now, however, these 

positive impacts are being exploited.

! Increased crop yields expected, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://goo.gl/9PYxR 

! Thawing Arctic opens new shipping routes, The Guardian: http://goo.gl/6QjPx 

Catalyzing events – Hurricane Sandy, the worst U.S. drought in a half-century, and the 2012 Colorado wildfires have brought 

new attention to the topic of climate change. Emergency managers have begun to implement an integrated approach to 

reducing risk exposure. Meanwhile the modeling and management of risk is changing and stronger design standards are 

being developed.

! Public opinion on climate change influenced by recent events, Associated Press-GfK: http://goo.gl/bDV3v 

! Stronger design standards, FEMA: http://www.fema.gov/residential-coastal-construction 

Fruitful collaboration – Cities in the U.S. have taken leadership roles in climate change mitigation and adaptation, producing 

meaningful collaborations. 

! PlaNYC, City of New York: http://www.nyc.gov/html/planyc2030/html/theplan/climate-change.shtml 

! City of Boston Climate Action Plan, City of Boston: http://goo.gl/KBMji 

! MIT’s Science Impact Collaborative: http://web.mit.edu/dusp/epp/music/ 

Green sprouts – The growing success of new initiatives built around green products in countries like China and India has 

gathered international attention. Meanwhile, homegrown local, state, and industry-level programs to curb emissions in the 

U.S. have begun to yield evidence that the economic impact of greenhouse gas mitigation could in fact, be positive. These 

successes fortify arguments for broader-scale action on climate change. 

! Local, state, industry initiatives, Mother Jones: http://goo.gl/erdc7, NYT: http://goo.gl/ACM1c, EPA: http://goo.gl/cqPJ6 

! Arguments for promoting competitiveness in the clean energy market, C-SPAN: http://goo.gl/8WbG1 

Technotopia With the speed of product development and adoption, new technology is changing and defining how we live and 

work more than ever (See MIT Technology Review: http://goo.gl/QY2eD). Mobile technologies in particular have spurred 

innovation and granted communication access to millions worldwide (See The Guardian: http://goo.gl/8Q9w0). Experts believe we 

are in the midst of the next industrial revolution (See The Wilson Center: http://goo.gl/MChmw) – one that will change who makes 

things, how and where.

New business models – “Crowdfunding” platforms like Kickstarter and Neighbor.ly are democratizing forces in both business 

and government. In 2012, the Kickstarter community pledged about ten percent of all seed investment in the U.S. The 

broader move toward “crowdsourcing” of all kinds signals a major shift in how we work, solve problems, and interact with 

organizations – including government. 

! Crowdfunding and Kickstarter, MIT Technology Review, http://goo.gl/PIhsF 

! Crowdfunding Superstorm Sandy, National Public Radio: http://goo.gl/K0tgW 

! Neighbor.ly civic crowdfunding platform: http://neighbor.ly/ (also see Innovator Profile on p.29) 

! Crowdsourcing DNA sequencing for diseases, Nature: http://goo.gl/BnG64 

! How technology is changing the nature of work, Institute for the Future: http://goo.gl/4TW7Y 

! How Code for America is reinventing government, Mashable: http://goo.gl/aHLxK

Technology Theme 
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Appendix C: Research References | Page 44 

Data, data everywhere – Big data and social networking redefined how we think about and manage information (See The 

Economist: http://www.economist.com/node/15557443). The meteoric growth in the collection of data creates new insights 

and applications.

! 2012 candidates mine voter data, MIT Technology Review: http://goo.gl/YJuhl, ABC News: http://goo.gl/hxPhn 

! Red Cross Digital Operations Center uses social media to help during disasters, iRevolution: http://goo.gl/zvQyQ 

The Maker Movement – The Makers, a technological subset of the DIY movement, are changing the way all kinds of things 

are produced, and may even change our economy (See Time Magazine: http://goo.gl/Gi9rr). 3-D printers can now generate 

everything from custom tools, to hearing aids, jewelry, even body parts. Printing services offer custom-manufacture of predesigned products, and home-based printers download files from the web that can be turned into real objects. Synthetic 

biologists and biohackers are designing and building whole new biological parts, organisms, and systems. This idea could 

redefine the manufacturing process, fundamentally change our economy, and enable people to create on-the-fly solutions to 

issues like emergency response and recovery.

! 3-D printers, Bloomberg Business Week: http://goo.gl/7d8ho, The Inquisitr: http://goo.gl/BJCrr

! 3-D printing services, Shapeways: http://www.shapeways.com/, Sculpteo: http://www.sculpteo.com/, Redeye: 

http://redeyeondemand.com/, i.materialise: http://i.materialise.com/

! Synthetic biology and biohacking, Synthetic Biology Project: http://goo.gl/GLSzx, BBC News: http://goo.gl/dIAgu, 

Nature: http://goo.gl/C7Ftl

! Micro hydropower generator made after the earthquake in Japan, Thingiverse: http://www.thingiverse.com/thing:34813 

Technical Difficulties-Technical advancement is typically looked upon favorably, especially in the United States. But the pace of 

technological change today may be counter-productive, both economically and socially. It raises serious concerns related to 

privacy, power, and inequality. It forces us through rounds of creative destruction, without drastic improvements in living 

standards. It’s possible that technology, with the speed and complexity of our environment, may actually be making things 

fundamentally less secure and stable (See the Journal of Risk Analysis and Crisis Response: http://goo.gl/HwGoW). 

Privacy and data (in)security – Online “cloud storage” services grew exponentially by creating new uses for data and 

offering convenient, anywhere access. However, common security measures (like passwords) are flawed, offering multiple 

points of entry for hackers and thieves. Meanwhile, companies legally collect, buy, and sell detailed information about their

users. Cyber-crime is now one of the most lucrative forms of criminal activity, and the risk of identity theft is a serious issue 

affecting individuals, businesses, and government.

! Vulnerability of common security measures, Wired Magazine: http://goo.gl/5UXlx, NPR: http://goo.gl/mTOUX 

! Companies collect, buy, and sell data, The Wall Street Journal: http://goo.gl/IgJBm, NYT: http://goo.gl/zuzBV

! Privacy concerns with “big data,” The New York Times: http://goo.gl/M5y1b 

Walled Gardens –Tech giants like Apple and Google are now ubiquitous – they provide “the remote control for many 

people’s digital lives.” But critics fear that their size and power may become a problem for consumers, and even governments.

! Concerns about the internet giants, The Economist: http://goo.gl/OWsvU, The New York Times: http://goo.gl/GofhQ 

! Patent wars, The New York Times: http://goo.gl/pjwti 

The Digital Divide – The falling cost of consumer electronics has made technology more accessible, but in other ways the 

digital divide persists. 

! Mobile technology allows more low-income people access to the internet, Pew Research Center: http://goo.gl/Ze7Zd 

! Broadband access lags behind in poor and rural areas, exacerbates inequality, Wired Magazine: http://goo.gl/TM9kl 

! Senior citizens online are more likely to face online fraud, Center for Retirement Research: http://goo.gl/4RftV 

Fears of a New Age – As the world grows more complex, so do the threats to life, safety, and security. Since the 9/11 terror 

attacks, the world has shifted focus to 21st century “unconventional” threats, which experts argue will be the likeliest and most 

dangerous future security challenges (See Strategic Studies Institute: http://goo.gl/YJDML). There is a wide range of means by 

which harm could be done – from digital, to the very low-tech (See Senate Transcript: http://goo.gl/3rvj1). 

Security Theme 
Appendix C 

Appendix C: Research References | Page 45 

Cyber attacks on critical infrastructure – In a hyper-connected world, cyber threats to government and society are real and 

pervasive. Security experts warm especially of rising threats to critical infrastructure, including power plants, water systems, 

energy pipelines, transportation systems and financial networks. The U.S. government is developing policies and practices to 

mitigate cyber threats, but some argue it’s not enough.

! Then-Defense Secretary Leon Panetta speaks of “a cyber Pearl Harbor,” New York Times: http://goo.gl/ZBL1V 

! U.S. mitigates cyber-threats, Wall Street Journal: http://goo.gl/XgIm5, U.S. Department of Defense: http://goo.gl/7Hrba 

Environmental hazards – Man-made environmental threats are a large and unsettling unknown, especially those related to 

biotechnology. Critics fear that engineered plants or animals could destabilize ecosystems and disrupt global food supplies. 

Bioengineering research may increase the probability of the release of a destructive bioengineered agent. Other sources of 

risk include drilling processes like hydraulic “fracking,” which uses up large amounts of clean water and may carry other 

environmental consequences. 

! Genetically-engineered species may pose risks, Science Daily: http://goo.gl/ubLM6, The Guardian: http://goo.gl/GT9Gb 

! Personalized bio-weapons could be used for assassination, The Atlantic: http://goo.gl/Jgn1I 

! Scientists raise concerns about impact of hydraulic “fracking,” Science Daily: http://goo.gl/gkbsw, MIT Technology 

Review: http://goo.gl/kHI7v 

Catastrophic terrorism – More than a decade after the 9/11 terror attacks, terrorism remains a risk to the United States. 

Innumerable potential targets include the food system, ports, utilities, dams, mass transit, bio-research facilities, military 

installations, the air transit network, and other dense concentrations of people. Weapons range from explosives to 

nanotechnology. 

! U.S. power grid is “inherently vulnerable,” The National Academies: http://goo.gl/N67rs 

! Amtrak remains vulnerable to terrorist attack, NBC Southern California: http://goo.gl/L2Zu7 

! FBI briefing on agroterrorism, Federal Bureau of Investigation: http://goo.gl/0ZuCz 

Mass shootings – 2012 was a bad year for mass shootings in the U.S. – highlighting a distressing trend of growing gun 

violence. The. U.S. has suffered 62 mass shootings since 1982, with 25 of these occurring since 2006, and 7 happening in 

2012 alone. The 2012 tragedy at Sandy Hook Elementary in Connecticut reminds us that large-scale violence can strike 

anywhere, targeting even the most vulnerable and defenseless.

! A Guide to Mass Shootings in America, Mother Jones: http://goo.gl/r51XW 

Threats, Reloaded While novel dangers steal the spotlight, traditional threats have hardly disappeared. Far from “old news,” 

nation-state conflicts, geopolitical instability, and the threat of pandemic outbreak are interwoven with the new security issues that 

have characterized the early 21st century. For instance, independent hacking attacks or the exposure of secret data can have 

diplomatic or defense-related fallout (See Reuters: http://goo.gl/rKrgC, and NPR: http://goo.gl/WDpRW). Cyber weapons may be 

used by states against one another, adding new dimensions to otherwise traditional conflicts (See: http://goo.gl/1wbJC). 

Nation-state conflicts – The end of the Cold War, 9/11 and other factors have shifted attention away from conventional 

state-on-state conflicts. A return of those kinds of tensions is plausible. Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons continues to be 

a concern, while “natural security” risks play out worldwide. Even seemingly dated issues, like territorial disputes (e.g. the 

South China Sea) are potential flashpoints for U.S. allies. 

! Trends Report 2030, the National Intelligence Council: http://goo.gl/DDJqn 

! Overview of “natural security” issues, Center for a New American Security: http://www.cnas.org/naturalsecurity 

! Tensions in the South China Sea, The Atlantic: http://goo.gl/jMWV3 

Fragile states –Economic and political turbulence over the last few years has destabilized many parts of the world. Global 

and regional institutions failed to fully contain or manage border and civil conflicts, Syria being the most vivid example. 

Instability can spill over across regions. Potential disruption in the Middle East remains a heightened risk due to existing or 

aspirational possession of nuclear armaments. Closer to home in the Western Hemisphere, drugs, violence, poverty, and 

political instability pose ongoing risks. 

! The regional implications of the Syrian crisis, Middle East Institute: http://goo.gl/JXRz1 

! Partnership between the U.S. and Mexico to fight organized crime, U.S. State Dept: http://www.state.gov/j/inl/merida/
 

Appendix C 

Appendix C: Research References | Page 46 

Pandemics – Perhaps the oldest human threat, pandemics are now back to the fore. The ease of transmission and contagion 

has accelerated with global commerce, transportation, and supply chains. The 2003 SARS outbreak, the H5N1 scare of 2008, 

and the H1N1 pandemic of 2009-2010 had international implications. Health officials worry about another strain of H5N1 “bird 

flu” transmittable from human-to-human that may have catastrophic consequences. In 2012, two cases surfaced outside of 

the U.S. of a previously unrecorded coronavirus. Meanwhile, infections such as BSE or “mad cow disease” are a reminder 

that pandemics can also attack via the food supply.

! World map of 2009 H1N1 infections, World Health Organization: http://goo.gl/2c5Zw 

! Paper published describing how to make a strain of H5N1 transmittable to humans, NY Times: http://goo.gl/SIe3c 

! New coronavirus found in the Arabian peninsula, NPR: http://goo.gl/bhZ5n 

! CDC recommendations for employers on fighting the flu in the workplace: http://goo.gl/ZqR6w 

! Preparing for a major pandemic flu outbreak, King County Public Health: http://vimeo.com/48042619