Highlights from the Strategic Foresight Initiative: 2013-2014 

2013-2014 Highlights

This Highlights document shares key accomplishments of FEMA’s Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) under its four strategic 

goals, and provides an overview of where SFI is headed in the coming years. SFI’s goals are to: 

1. Advance knowledge of future trends and drivers; 

2. Actively use and promote foresight in FEMA decision making; 

3. Identify and support applications of foresight; and

4. Provide information and tools to promote the use of foresight across the whole community.

About FEMA’s Strategic Foresight Initiative

Launched in 2010, SFI is an effort to create an enduring foresight capability across the emergency management community. Its 

fundamental purpose is to advance strategic planning and thinking about the future, to prepare communities for both the 

emerging challenges and the key opportunities that our changing environment presents. 

FEMA’s SFI has comprised three main phases: Environmental Scanning through research, scoping workshops, identification of 

drivers, and subject matter expert input; Scenario Planning involving evaluating existing or customizing new scenarios, 

workshops and the identification of strategic needs; and Advancing and Sustaining Foresight including expanding and sharing 

research, aligning findings to strategies, and engaging stakeholders. 

Environmental 

Scanning

Scenario 

Planning

Advancing & 

Sustaining Foresight

Image: Wildland fire crews get ready for shift change at the Incident Command Post for the 2012 High Park Fire near Fort Collins, CO. 

Source: FEMA Photo Library. 1 
 

SFI 2013-2014 Highlights

SFI 2010 – 2012 Recap

2010

2011

From 2010-2011, FEMA established the foundation for SFI (environmental scanning), built 

the analytic process; identified the nine critical SFI drivers of change most significantly 

influencing the future of emergency management (scenario planning); and broadened 

awareness about SFI and its findings through engagement with the whole community 

(advancing and sustaining foresight). 

2012

In 2012, FEMA’s efforts centered on bringing to life the contents of the capstone report, Crisis 

Response and Disaster Resilience 2030

Toward More Resilient Futures 

, sparking discussion and catalyzing action around the 

emergency management community’s future strategic needs. The result of these activities and 

experience was the report that explored practical applications 

of foresight by the whole community.

SFI 2013-2014

This Highlights provides progress updates on all four SFI strategic goals. 

Value Proposition for FEMA and the Whole Community

An emergency management community that is better positioned 

and prepared for whatever challenges and opportunities the future holds

Four SFI Strategic Goals:

2. FEMA Decision Making

Actively use and promote 

foresight in FEMA 

decision-making 

3. Applications of 

Foresight

Identify and support 

applications of foresight

The links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government entities, 

organizations, or services.

4. Foresight 

Tools

Provide information and tools 

to promote the use of 

foresight across the whole 

community

1. Advancing Knowledge of Future Trends and Drivers

Environmental scanning 

& trends analysis

Knowledge-sharing 

forums

Collaboration with subject 

matter experts

Inter-disciplinary 

networks

2 
.

3 

SFI 2013-2014 Highlights

GOAL: Applications of Foresight

2013-2014 Key Accomplishments

GOAL: Identify and support applications of foresight

“Putting Foresight into 

Practice,” which featured a discussion with whole community panelists who 

were spotlighted in the 

In June 2013, the FEMA SFI team hosted a webinar: 

Toward More Resilient Futures report. The discussion 

explored the future of disaster resilience and how a long-range perspective 

can help us develop the capabilities, tools, and partnerships to solve 

problems – today, and in the future. 

Panelists shared innovative problem solving and collaboration methods 

including computer software programs that enable community members to 

connect before disasters and a crowdfunding website that helps 

communities fund projects that improve disaster resilience. 

In August 2013, the Australasian Fire And Emergency Service Authorities Council (AFAC) invited SFI to 

present the keynote address at their conference Shaping Tomorrow Together. The conference promoted 

emergency services collaboration between partners from the education, health, business and research sectors, 

and all levels of government. FEMA’s Deputy Associate Administrator for the Office of Policy and Program 

Analysis shared anecdotes of successful efforts addressing strategic needs such as the group of volunteers who 

organized themselves to help survivors of the 2010/2011 floods in Queensland, Australia. 

The World Futures Society invited SFI to present at their WorldFuture 2013 Conference session “New 

Frontiers in Public Sector Foresight”. During the conference FEMA’s SFI approach and tools were shared with 

other U.S. Federal agencies interested in and already practicing foresight. SFI was recognized as a 

transformative effort in the area of emergency and disaster management. 

GOAL: Provide information and tools to promote the use of 

foresight across the whole community

The Baltimore Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI) incorporated SFI into the 

development of their strategic plan. In creating their strategy, they reviewed the 15 SFI 

strategic needs and considered how these could impact their work in the Baltimore area in 

the future. These strategic needs will serve as guideposts to inform the UASI’s future 

planning, investments, and actions so that they can deal with the changing demands of the 

future operating environment. 

For more information on how the Baltimore UASI applied SFI concepts, read the full case 

study on the SFI website

The links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government entities, 

organizations, or services.

Page 3 
SFI Moving Forward

4 

SFI 2013-2014 Highlights

Continued from Page 3

In the past two years, SFI has been featured in several prominent publications including the Homeland Security 

Digital Library, New Security Beat, and EmergencyManagement.com. Other emergency management 

communities have also promoted SFI, such as the Mississippi Coalition for Citizens with Disabilities, which 

shares SFI updates with its stakeholders. 

In the spring of 2014, SFI shared its methodology, successes, best practices, and 

lessons learned at a Nordic Workshop on Strategic Foresight in Stockholm, 

Sweden with emergency management representatives from Sweden, Denmark, 

Norway, and Finland. The workshop included collective brainstorming and 

discussions on key factors driving change in the world, how those changes will affect 

the future operating environment of emergency management, and the respective 

challenges and impacts on societal security in the Nordic countries. A similar 

discussion occurred with participants from the Institute for National Defense and 

Security Policy Studies at the Swedish National Defense College.

SFI informed development of the

GOAL: Actively use and promote foresight in FEMA decisionmaking 

The links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government entities, 

organizations, or services.

2014-2018 FEMA Strategic Plan. Prior to identification of the Plan’s objectives 

and strategies, FEMA senior leaders and strategic planners participated in an SFI workshop to consider how 

current and future forces of change might affect the strategic landscape in which FEMA must function. This was a 

critical step to the Plan’s development because it enabled FEMA leaders and staff to think long term and take a 

holistic approach to shaping the Agency’s strategic direction. 

As part of the Strategic Plan’s development, FEMA leadership 

assembled staff from across the Agency to brainstorm fresh ideas for 

how to make FEMA a more effective agency in the future. Staff were 

assigned to challenge teams responsible for particular focus areas such 

as technology and the workforce. After teams brainstormed initial ideas, 

SFI “what-if frameworks” were used to stress-test the ideas for 

practicality. 

The “what-if frameworks” brought together relevant SFI elements 

(drivers, scenarios, research) as operational models within which to test 

the teams’ ideas. This exercise and analysis helped validate key 

elements of the future state ideas; put a spotlight on problems, 

inconsistencies, and gaps; and also illuminated different methods for 

execution of the ideas. The result was a more robust set of final 

recommendations that factored in a wider range of change drivers and 

implications. The final recommendations informed the final objectives 

and strategies within the 2014-2018 FEMA Strategic Plan. 
SFI 2013-2014 Highlights

GOAL: Advance knowledge of future trends and drivers

GOAL: Foresight Tools

In the past few years SFI has focused on this goal of advancing knowledge of future trends and drivers. The 

initiative began with research and workshops with subject matter experts to understand what the key trends and 

drivers are that impact our current and future emergency management environment. This information was 

aggregated and shared in the form of several webinars throughout 2013, driver research papers, and reports 

posted on the SFI website. 

Additionally, several articles and blog posts have featured discussion of SFI and future trends and drivers 

impacting emergency management, including an article on the U.S. Resilience System website and a blog 

post on FirstResponder.gov

SFI Going Forward

Going forward, FEMA’s SFI team will continue making progress on all four of its strategic goals. The near term 

focus will continue to be providing information and tools to promote the use of foresight across the whole 

community. In early 2015, the SFI website will be updated with several new SFI Toolbox resources including a 

foresight activity and a foresight workshop how-to guide.

As always, we value your input and encourage you to share ideas and anecdotes of how SFI concepts help 

your work to build preparedness for disasters. Please contact us with any questions, comments, or ideas at 

FEMA-OPPA-SFI@fema.gov and be sure to check the SFI website for updates in the coming months. 

. 

The links provided are for reference only. FEMA does not endorse any non-government entities, 

organizations, or services.

Flooded homes and closed roads in Bound Brook, New Jersey, after Hurricane Irene. Source: FEMA Photo Library.