## Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# Introduction Bryan Berringer (bryan.berringer@ee.doe.gov) U.S. Department ofEnergy 

## U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners 6 

## and Heat Pumps o September 12, 2001 I ' 

## Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# Introduction Bryan Berringer (bryan.berringer@ee.doe.gov) 

# u.s. Department ofEnergy 

# u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and HeatPumps

. September 12,2001 ." "-.) a a "-.) . I

a a (Jl "-.) a

# t 

# Energy Policy & Conservation if Act (EPCA) Ruirements EPCA, Pub. L. 94-163, as amended by the Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT), Pub. L. 102-486, establishes energy efficiency standards for certain commercial heating and air conditioning equipment which includes commercial unitary air conditioners and heat pumps The efficiency requirements in the statute correspond to the levels in ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1 as in effect on October 24, 1992 Ifthe efficiency levels in ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 are amended, the Secretary ofEnergy must establish an amended standard for such equipment at the new ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 minimum level, unless (s)he determines, through a rulemaking supported by clear and convincing evidence, that a more stringent standard is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified and would result in significant additional energy conservation. EPCA section 342 (a)(6)(A), 42 U.S.C. 6313 (a)(6)(A) 

# Energy Policy & 

# Conservation Act**(EP£9~)~~~quirements** • EPCA, Pub. L. 94-163, as amended bythe Energy Policy Act of 1992 (EPACT), Pub. L. 102-486, establishes energy efficiency standards for certain commercial heating and air conditioning equipment which includes commercial unitary air conditioners and heat pumps • The efficiency requirements in the statute correspond to the levels in ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1 as in effect on October 24, 1992 • Ifthe efficiency levels in ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 are amended, the Secretary ofEnergy must establish an amended standard for such equipment at the new ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 minimum level, unless (s)he determines, through a rulemaking supported by clear and convincing evidence, that a more stringent standard is technologically feasible and economicallyjustified and would result in significant additional energy conservation. EPCA section 342 (a)(6)(A), 42 U.S.C. 6313 (a)(6)(A) 1

# EPCA Requirements (Con't) * Small and Large Commercial Package Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment are covered products. §342 EPCA set the initial standards. §342(a) Product Category/Product Subcategory Efficiency Level EPCA ASHRAE 90.1-1999 Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment/ >65 kBtu/h and <135 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central AC, HP EER: 8.9 EER: 10.3, COP: 3 COP: 3.2 Large Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment/ 2 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central AC EER: 8.5 EER: 9.7 2 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central HP EER: 8.5 EER: 9.3, COP: 2.9 COP: 3.1 2 

# EPCA Requirements 

# (Con't)

____________ !P.!.**!!lIs~,.:. ~~** . .iJf.;'.p.\':.:':.,.... ":" 

## • Small and Large Commercial Package Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment are coveredproducts. §342 • EPCA set 

## the initial standards. §342(a) Product Category/Product Subcategory Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment!**~** 65 kBtu/h and <135 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central AC, HP Large Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment!**~** 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, CentralAC**~** 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central HP Efficiency Level EPCA ASHRAE 90.1-1999 EER: 8.9 COP: 3 EER: 8.5 EER: 8.5 EER: 10.3, COP: 3.2 EER: 9.7 EER: 9.3, COP: 2.9 COP: 3.1
2

# Rulemaking Status FY 2000 - Assigned a high priority January 12, 2001 - Federal Register notice 

## announced DOE would evaluate whether standards higher than ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 arejustified May 2001 - National Energy Policy (NEP) 

## report recommended support for the appliance standards program for covered products, setting higher standards where technologically feasible and economicallyjustified 3 

## • FY 2000 - Assigned a high priority , • January 12, 2001 - Federal Register notice announced DOE would·evaluate whether standards higher than ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 arejustified

I •• 

## May 2001 - National Energy Policy (NEP) report recommended support for the appliance standards program for coveredproducts, setting higher standards where technologically feasible and economicallyjustified 3

# Standards Setting Process hial , 

# Timeline July 2001 Stakeholder Participation Pror Activitiest -. '

Figure 1. Principal procedural steps in the commercial unitary air-conditioner and heat pump standards sauemakntting

4 1989 1992 1999q 201 02 00 0020 Figure 1.Prin~~~~,cipAl prcdrlsesI'h omrca ntr i-odtoe 1989 

# Standards Setting Process Timeline July 2001 Stakeholder Participation 

# '.**prl?~·A.~!iJil~~i:f·;-;** 

# ',.,**s;fiii;j~1i~I~~~~J~~~»~~(~·~.~~I~~a~'~~ l(---~**  1992 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 Figure 1. Principal procedural steps Inthe commercial unitary air-conditioner and heat pump standards setting process 4

# Analytical Framework Commercial Unitary A/C and HP Approaches Key-Inputs Analysis Key-Outputs inoustry Rem=_i . [' i ian r mnsn/ Preduce

_ Market & Technology

, ua ltlv Airit-.lde Ml /Fim nenta - r . . Assessment Terf-,Do n Analysis gnujivm il Praote n .. Pirtslla M, __ Eienit ta

_ al I LhI IScreening Analysis A=PuRi neni Siaban Modaels - _L Mandacturing e| 1 E,.iq.dr~trwd t i j E- 5 ffi'cimfl^f ance ftI_ Engineering , . - ........--- Analyss

_

rI I-----L Empoy^men F|NA LR ULlE EnCTjsis , 5 ; i ,; M intensn>«JScnviecCaat £ ' Modelsu ; * priceshJ-est-J-- . :Lifrycle Cost and Payback , Lfc.. NOttxti

1 . ij |___inaaitbn e«ai ! 5^ . , . Ena«yi« ng, Esrec __ j E i - I . ____ * tNt PrFCent VYlee* Hitelorichb snt, Oe I Etitcii Impats Analysis Froduct saturtion i * Eiciency *VoluntryinHittives j distribution f ANOPR _i . . T . Revised Engineering, LCC., ~ and NES Analyses - . 1 :,' i . ! i

- * Pya¢ac( CIS tbuen : ~ i O1 ~-ah IcsCi Consumere Oisl c j i OBno gfaphlcs _

-nrrorIpacts i 5 ; i -- -- -:--: : :::::Manuftictur Prices a -- ' ' ....-... .....-- ........-.....-....... .. , .. : .... Manufacturer hirnd yCas-o..w with Un inlct Averages :
.. . __ . .... Impact Analysis C~

o s l s *t Standan1 Levl Cases, * Effidency Diasrution for all Cases Utlii1oadfactcrt ·. . . .. *... Utility Impacts | UtIhy RevenueLossm Emosson rates.." (NEMS) , Environmental Emissions Analysis (NEMS--

Employment

Impacts .. NOPR , I FINAL RULE Revised Analysis

_ 

# Analytical Framework

Commercial Unitary Ale 

## and HP Approaches

Effx:jmcv:lntl Mprti'''' "f..Jj i j , , i Q.

:0**~ ~**  ''III Key-Inputs

## ~M~Nt~m~Sy~NDYuu__________

## ~__

## ~_t_-U_:~~I ...

## ~__

## ~.. Emed ECC"ss**~**r·········_···_·····: i._.___.. ; I 

### : I Analysis Market & TeclYloiogy Assessment Screening Analysis

# J Key-Outputs

• Pe'jboc:ll Ilisbil>Ullan , • Ue-cyde OISII1IlutiorI

..En "'VI .......IIS • Net Pr..... nt V ....es fsrcq"l**~** , .. M"'od..,d"'.'--____________ -+-+---i-__... :.**Shipmen~** ...**:c::e,~~;;~::::::**

### ..**~** 

### .. • Hililaricll1l1;pmenls '.'**Elftcjen~** " • Pa'jb.c:11 • Proca.oCl s-lIIrllion , : -, • Vc&lnteryinijiatiYH ! dislllDullon . i ANOPR

NOPR FINAL RULE Revised Engineering, LCC. '--__**and_N_E_s_t.,...~-na-lys_es---·**..-·--·l
• Pa)IlaCk Clmbutlon**DJ~--~~--~---·~u~~~~~~~·S®~~~~.**

t Revised Analysis , , :**~CaSh-towwif'l ~** 

, Emissions ., - -

# Discussion Topics Market and Technology Assessment

- Product Classes

- Baseline 

## Screening Analysis Engineering Analysis

- Equipment Efficiency and Cost Analysis

- Building Energy Use and Electric Load Shape 

### Characterization 

# Discussion Topics

.... 1IiiIiiiiii.... _______ ..**~** .. .**,~;,.~i:'~,o;m.;··'::··;:'?,'** .. ' '. ' 

## • Market and Technology Assessment

,


### - Product Classes

- Baseline 

## • Screening Analysis ' •.Engineering Analysis

• ' I 

### - Equipment Efficiency and Cost Analysis

- Building Energy Use and Electric Load Shape Characterization

6

# Discussion Topics (Cont'd) Other Analyses

- Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

- Consumer Sub-group Analysis

- National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis

- Manufacturer Impact Analysis

- Employment Impact Analysis

- Utility Impact Analysis

- Environmental Analysis

7 

# Discussion Topics (Cont'd)

. ...• '1 .•..:....**"ftf:l:·~~:tr~"~"?~:r·;:; ~**  ..:.[.' : :'>;" : .....: ..' . 

## • Other Analyses

- Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

- Consumer Sub-group Analysis

- National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis

- Manufacturer Impact Analysis

- Employment Impact Analysis

- Utility Impact Analysis

- Environmental Analysis

7

# *i; Next Steps
Srl. iT.H..:.... :,.:... - . 

## * Workshop comments (due 10/12/01) * Data collection * Determine whether to adopt ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 levels or initiate a standards rulemaking

- Possible rulemaking schedule * ANOPR (01/03) * NOPR (01/04) * Final Rule (08/04) , I

I " 

# Next Steps**~** • .'. .,"..:.." 1, •**~** •**~~7::·;·::.~:·:·~·.~.:->:.·** : .. 

## • Workshop comments (due 10/12/01) 

## • Datacollection • Determine whether to adopt ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 levels or initiate a standards rulemaking

- Possible rulemaking schedule • ANOPR'(Ol/03) • NOPR (01/04) • Final Rule (08/04)

8Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

- • • ••**~I.** ':,: " \ 

## MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

, . , 

## Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) .Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001

### Market Assessment

· '3! Overview The information collected during the Market and Technology Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses. Screening Analysis Market and Technology National Energy Savings Assessment

_______ 

### Manufacturer Impact Analysis Firms and industry structure Product characteristics Historical shipments Non-regulatory incentives Regional differences

ItI.B. Market Assessent 083001 Market Assessment Overview The information collected during the Market and Technology Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses. Market and Technology Assessment ScreeningAnalysis National Energy Savings ManufacturerImpact Analysis Firms and industry structure Product characteristics Historical shipments Non-regulatory incentives Regional differences

III.B. Market Alless8nt 083001Market Assessment Information Sources The Department is currently gathering information from the 

### The Department is currently gathering information from the following sources: US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey, 1992, 1995, and 1999 Product Technical and Sales Literature US Census Current Industrial Reports SEC 10-K Annual Reports ARI Statistical Profile, 2000 ARI Large Unitary Products Directory California Energy Commission database 

### What additionalsourcesshouldthe Department consider? Are thestakeholders willingtoprovidemore detailed information?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 , , Market Assessment Information Sources The Department is currently gathering information from the following sources: US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey, 1992, 1995, and 1999 Product Technical and Sales Literature US Census Current Industrial Reports SEC 10-K Annual Reports ARI Statistical Profile, 2000 ARI Large Unitary Products Directory California Energy Commission database What additionalsources should the Department consider? Are the stakeholders willing to provide more detailed information?

III.B. Market Aallllent 083001 2

### ·- Market Assessment Specific Topics The market assessment raises several important questions. 

### * Shouldthe Department considerregional differences in product distribution, use, orinstallation? If so, which ones? * Whatassumptions regarding the impact ofnon-regulatory initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE 90.1-1999, Energy Star, utility rebates) should DOE use inthe analysis? * Are there any impending changes inthe market ofwhich the Department shouldbe aware?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 Market Assessment Specific Topics The market assessment raises several important questions.
• Should the Departmentconsiderregional differences in product distribution,· use, orinstallation? Ifso, which ones? • What assumptions regarding the impact ofnon-regulatory initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE90. 1-1999, Energy Star, utility rebates) should DOE use in the analysis? • Are there. anyimpending changes in the market ofwhich the Departmentshouldbe aware?

III.B. Market AII... ent 083001 3i j Product Classes Ah r Proposed Product Classes 

### Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be established in order to accommodate differences in product efficiency and to preserve consumer utility. * Are the following classes appropriate?

- AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr)

- AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr)

- Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr)

- Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) 

### * Are additional classes warranted based on unique features thatimpact energy use (e.g. heat recovery) or utility(e.g. dehumidification)?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 Product Classes Proposed Product Classes Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be established in order to accommodate differences in product efficiency and to preserve consumer utility_ • Are the following classes appropriate?



### • AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) .Are additional classes warrantedbasedon unique features thatimpactenergy use (e.g. heat recovery) or utility(e.g. dehumidification)?

III.B. Market Assallent 083001 4Ep Baseline Models 5: rOverview 

### The Department defines baseline model characteristics to serve as the basis,forthe analysis.

* Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features * Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency product ineach product class * Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are intended to represent the "typical" product

111.B. Market Assesent 083001 " , Baseline Models Overview The Department defi,nes baseline model characteristics to serve as the basis'for the analysis.

• Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features • Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency product in each product class 

### • Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are intended to represent the ''typical'' product

III.B. Merket AII.llant 083001 5Overview ,~~~ Basel~;~P~·F~;:~"ine M..odls: 

### Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests using the following characteristics to define baseline air conditioners and heat pumps forthe analysis. Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems) <1 35kBtu/hr: >=1 35kBtu/hr: 7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP 8.0 IPLV 8.0 IPLV single compressor dual compressors 

### * Are these features/levels appropriate? Shouldotherfeatures be added? * Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed within a class? * Should comparable analysis be performed forotherproduct types (e.g. splitsystems, or systems without integralgas heat)? III.B. Market Asessent 083001 Baseline Models Overview Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests using the following characteristics to define baseline air conditioners and heat pumps for the analysis. Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems) <135kBtu/hr: 7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 8.0IPLV single compressor >=135kBtu/hr: 15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP B.O IPLV dual compressors • Are these features/levels appropriate? Shouldother features be added? • Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed within a class? • Should comparable analysis be performed for otherproduct types (e.g. splitsystems, orsystems without integralgas heat)?
III.B. Market Aaoellent 083001 6,I- I.-.^ Backup slides

,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ slidesBaseline Models Product Capacity (Input Rating) 

### Covera4- ie6iciency range varies considerably by cap '.u co-and manufacturer.



### -~ Should this cause ,Uni~,·; %.-_--..~-the Department to DirectorWnter200 relyless on actual

All commercial unitary - equipment shown. III.B. Market Assessent 083001 l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ , I Baseline Models Product Capacity (Input Rating) iency range varies considerably by ca

EER

,Source: ARI Large

Unitary Equipment DirectoryWinter 2000 All commercial unitary equipment shown. d manufacturer.

I I Should this cause the Department to rely less on actual I equipment data and I more on modeling?

III.B. Market Aaaellent 083001 8

### j-p, Baseline Models J Product Efficiency 

### IOnly afew manufacturers produce splitsystems >= 135kBTU/hr,



### and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER. ' I
- .,......... /L

,,..,./., -, . . - .. : .. - - ...



### . 7A/.



### /./X/0.---:---. _..-... ----.. . . ..... ...--... -- , Is this relatively 

### low efficiency limit due to

8 5 b.7 

### consider

## these ~~~~~~~~~~tDirectory Winter 2000ehiaor 

### -----. · How should 

# nthe

8.59.1~~~ ~10 

### consider these 03001 9 Source: ARI Large EER 9.3 ~ .~ UnitaryEquipment 9.5 Directory Winter 2000 9.6 9.8 11I.B. Market Assessnt 083001**~Baseline** Modeis

. Product Efficiency

## .rI;i~-(J1=:~~:,~

# .. .**.""AEg,~:,,_g~~_:__** ... un ..... I Only a few manufacturers produce split systems >= 135kBTU/hr, :and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER.

8.5 8.7 "'1-'·,. 8.9 9 9.2 Source: ARI Large EER Unitary Equipment DirectoryWinter 2000 

### •



### •

9.5 9.6 10 III.B. Market Alsellent 083001 Is this relatively low efficiency limit due to technical or market factors? How should the Department consider these factors in this rulemaking?

9

### Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# Screening Analysis David Winiarski (david.winiarski@pnl. gov) 

### Pacific Northwest National Laboratory U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 

### Commercial Air**Condition~rs** 

### and Heat Pumps 

# Screening Analysis David Winiarski (david.winiarski@pnl.gov) 

### Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 

## u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001-g 

### Screening Analysis Overview The Screening Analysis is used to eliminate from further analysis those options or efficiency levels that are not sufficiently developed or have characteristics that make them technologically unsuitable for consideration in the rulemaking. Finaldesign options includedmustsatisfy the following criteria. Technological feasibility Practicability to manufacture, install, and service Impacts on health or safety Impacts on product utility or availability

II1-C- 2 Screening Analysis Overview

'" .' : I' . ,. f:>**'~~'.** ,0 ! # The Screening Analysis is used to eliminate from further analysis those options or efficiency levels that are not

.sufficiently developed or have characteristics that make them

technologically unsuitable for consideration in the rulemaking. Final design options includedmustsatisfy thefollowing criteria: Technological feasibility Practicability to manufacture, install, and service Impacts on healt,h or safety Impacts on product utility or availability

UI-C- 2

# ZN Screening Analysis 

### Do1 DOE Requests for Stakeholder Input Should the Department considerother factors in developing its list ofpotential design options? For example, shouldincreases inEER be limitedby the latentheat removal capability ofthe equipment in order to make the productsuitable for high humidityareas ofthe country? What assumptions shouldthe Department make regarding design forspecific capacities ofequipment? Howshould the Department address capacitycontrol measures? Are there other technologychoices thatshouldbe added to those listedin the framework document III-C- 3 , ' Screening Analysis'

. 

### DOE Requests for Stakeholder Input
"., .. ,". • Should.the Departmentconsiderotherfactors in developing its list ofpotential design options? For example, should increases in EER be limited by the latent heat removal capability ofthe**eq~ipment** in orderto make the productsuitable for high humidityareas ofthe country? .• What assumptions should the Department make regarding
,. design forspecific capacities ofequipment? How should the ., Departmentaddress capacity control measures? • Are there othertechnology choices that should be added to those lis'ted in the framework document III-C- 3ft


# BACKUP SLIDES Screening Analysis

III-C- 4 

## BACKUP SLIDES

Screening Analysis

, ,

III-C· 4' . Screening Analysis Initial Technology Choice Considerations Evaporator and condenser coils with * Air-foil or backward-curved larger heat-exchanger area * centrifugal fans * 'o "Deep coil" or micro-channel * Synchronous (toothed) belts or evaporator coils coils direct drive fans * * Inverter-driven, variable-speed
· Low pressure-loss filters and Low pressur s findoor or condenser compressors cooling coils c High-efficiency propeller condenser * High efficiency motors * fans * High efficiency compressors, e.g. * High-side solenoid valve or scrolls or "twin-single" technology * discharge line check-valve to '.' Multiple compressors * minimize pressure equalization * Inverter-driven, variable-speed * Heat-pipes (for high latent loads)* compressors* * Double-skin, high-albedo cabinets* * Thermal expansion valves (TXV) * Sub-coolers

· Electronic expansion valves Demand-controlled ventilation strategy * * Currently used in commercial unitaryand/or splitAC/HP products III-C- 5 Screening Analysis Initial Technology Choice Considerations 

### • Evaporator and condenser coils with 

## • Air-foil or backward-curved larger**heat~exchanger** area * centrifugal fans * CJ) "Deep coil" or micro-channel • Synchronous (toothed) belts or evaporator coils direct drive fans * Low pressure-loss filters and • Inverter-driven, variable-speed 

### • cooling coils * indoor or condenser compressors • High-efficiency propeller condenser 

### • High efficiency motors * fans 

## • High efficiency compressors, e.g. 

### • High-side solenoid valve or scrolls or "twin-single" technology * discharge line check-valve to '

# .. Multiple compressors * minimize pressure equalization 

### • Inverter-driven! variable-speed • Heat-pipes (for high latent loads) * compressors * • Double-skin, high-albedo cabinets * 

### • Thermal expansion valves (TXV) * • Sub-coolers 

### • Electronic expansion valves • Demand-controlled ventilation strategy * * Currently used in commercial unitary and/or split AC/HP products III-C- 53 

### '~ 

### Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# ENGINEERING ANALYSIS Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# ENGINEERING ANALYSIS Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. 

## u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001lb Engineering Analysis ,wS Overview 

### The Engineering Analysis defines the relationship between equipment cost and equipment efficiencyfor use in downstream analyses.

o / Consumer Life-Cycle Cost 

### ,= /y~ ^^^ ~* 

### ·Manufacturer Impact '01.-Employment Impact 

### , , , * Employment Impact Product Efficiency

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001 Engineering Analysis Overview The Engineering Analysis defines the relationship between equipment cost and equipment efficiency for use in downstream analyses.



### .... en o o c: o .- 

### .... o ::J "C o**~** a.. Product Efficiency 1" . II**~** Ii •**'i~'** ,,: d II:**:~jl ~I:**  ;1,: . 'I! 1 .1:.**~,:** \1; ;It**ii'~** ,II. ;,1 I""**~~ ~**  'I ,.**"~I'** II' ,. '. I.**~** • I l... I •**~j!** . I**I~** ,j. •**-~** :**~;p** 1 I:, ",**~** .: •**I~. ~**  •**~r ~**  I' . t " • If. ".. • 

# •

• Consumer Life-Cycle Cost • Manufacturer Impact • Employment Impact

111.0. Eng Analysis 083001i Engineering Analysis Characteristics _I w . - r ! ........... :,-~,~-: -...'~r'~:; : " ::.......; DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in the analysis possess certain characteristics.

®Credible

- based on acceptable estimation techniques

- incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources * Transparent

- publicly accessible

- protects proprietary information 

### * Specific

- sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation

- a single set of cost-efficiency estimates

- quantified uncertainties 

### * Timely

- available prior to scheduled deadlines
IIID. Eng Analysis 083001 Engineering Analysis Chpracteristics

.**~. ..~.**  ',.,-.;' DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in the analysis possess certain characteristics..

• Credible

- based on acceptable estimation techniques

- incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources • Transparent

- publicly accessible

- protects proprietary information • Specific

- sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation - a single set of cost-efficiency estimates

- quantified uncertainties • Timely

- available prior to scheduled deadlines
111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 2Engineering Analysis Sources of Efficiency Data There are several potential sources of efficiency/performance information, when applied to commercial air conditioners. Primary advantage ... disadvantage Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of Detailed data is often / performance data the most sensitive 

### Testing/Rating Objective near only accessible concentrated near only a few efficiency levels 

### Technical Literature Freely available Inconsisent topical 

## J coverage 

### ,Engineering Estimates Efficient Scope depends on Engineering Estimates Efficient personnel availability Questionable 

### Simulation Modeling Flexible applicabilityfor larger equipment 

### Prototyping Direct observation Resource intensive 

# V

/. Can provide direct insight into performance offuture equipment undermore stringent standards 1I.D.EngAnalysis 083001 3 Engineering Analysis SOl!Jrces of Efficiency Data There are several potential sources of efficiency/performance information, when applied to commercial air conditioners. Primary advantage ... disadvantage Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of Detailed data is often performance data the most sensitive

. Testing/Rating Objective and Products are concentrated near only accessible a few efficiency levels Technical Literature Freely available Inconsisent topical coverage ',Engineering Estimates Efficient Scope depends on personnel availability Simulation Modeling Flexible Questionable applicability for larger equipment Prototyping Direct observation Resource intensive

. j. Can provide direct Insight Intoperformance offuture V equipment undermore stringentstandards 111.0. Eng Analysis 08300I 

# J J J J J
3Engineering Analysis Sources of Manufacturing Cost Data Similarly, there are several potential sources of manufacturing cost data each with advantages and disadvantages. Primary advantage ... disadvantage 

### Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of cost Detailed data is often and market info sensitive 

### Teardown Analysis/ Direct product Products concentrated observation near only afew 

### Engineering Evaluation efficiency levels 

### List Prices Readily accessible Indicates overall value, wholesale prices not efficiency-related cost 

### Public Data (e.g. Census) Freely available Highly aggregated

Can provide directinsight into future costs under more stringent standards III.D. Eng Analysis 083001 Engineering Analysis SQurces' of Manufacturing Cost Data Similarly, there are several potential sources of manufacturing cost

.data each with advantages and disadvantages. Primary advantage . D • disadvantage ·Manufacturers and Suppliers Teardown Analysis/

. Engineering Evaluation

.. , List Prices Public Data (e.g. Census) Direct source of cost and market info Direct product observation Readily accessible wholesale prices Freely available .; Can provi(le direct Insightinto future costs under more stringentstandards Detailed data Is often sensitive Products concentrated . I near only a few y efficiency levels Indicates overall value, not efficiency-related cost Highly aggregated

111.0. Eng Analysis 083001 4~'-. Engineering Analysis .: Proposed Approach Based on the Department's past experience using approaches such as the Design Option and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to combine data sources forthis rulemaking.

· Gather publicly available information on cost, price, and performance * Work with manufacturers to obtain design data for appropriate equipment samples and perform a cost estimate based on that data * Conduct computer simulations and perform engineering estimates to supplement the design data * Obtain reviews by stakeholders * Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty Based on theiradvantages anddisadvantages, are allthese stepsnecessary, orare others warranted?

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001 Engineering Analysis Proposed Approach Based on the Department's past experience using approaches such as the Design Option and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to

.combine data sources for this rulemaking. • Gather publicly available information on cost, price, and performance • Work with manufacturers to obtain design data for appropriate equipment samples and perform a cost estimate based on that data • Conduct computer simulations and perform engineering estimates to supplement the design data • Obtain reviews by stakeholders • Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty Basedon theiradvantages and disadvantages, are aI/these steps necessary, orare others warranted?

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300I 5

### '. Engineering Analysis Questions Related to Proposed Approach _ B~B .~,,,:i~? t?3:.';'" :-: - : Depending on which approach we take, there are some questions to be answered.



### · Whatrole shouldmanufacturers andotherstakeholders have in providing data andreviewing assumptions, methods and results? * Whatperformance modeling tools shouldbe used, ifany?

- PUREZ -- formerly referred to as MODCON (Oak Ridge National Laboratory simulation model)

- HPSIM (National Institute of Standards and Technology simulation model)

- ACMODEL (Ray W. Herrick Laboratories, Purdue University simulation model)

- Spreadsheets (based on engineering expertise) 

### * Ifwe draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines should we use for reconciling them and integrating them into a single set of cost-efficiency data? * How should the Department consider improvements that impact part-load efficiency (e.g. IPLV) but not EER? Il.D. Eng Analysis 083001

# ~**~~** Engineering Analysis 

# "**~J\** Questions Related to Proposed Approach 

## ,**~~1rI**

_ ..... ______ IIIUJ2iJd .....**i¥!~."'iiifJ~,'3'~;;'t.,;;<~~~!:~:~;':.,,;** : Depending on which approach we take, there are some questions to be answered. • What role'should manufacturers andotherstakeholders have in , providing data andreviewing assumptions, methods andresults?

• What,performance modeling tools shouldbe used, ifany?

- PUREZ -- formerly referred to as MODCON (Oak Ridge National Laboratory simulation model)

- HPSIM (National Institute of Standards and Technology simulation model) , , " - ACMODEL (Ray W. Herrick Laboratories, Purdue University simulation model)

- Spreadsheets (based on engineering expertise) • If we draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines should we' use for reconciling them and integrating them into a single set of cost-efficiency data? '. How should the Department consider improvements that impact part-load efficiency (e.g. IPLV) but not EER? I 111.0. Eng Analysis 08300\ 6l ' ~Retail Price and Installation Cost 

### l .. Overview Retail prices and installation costs at various efficiency levels are needed to estimate consumer life cycle costs. 

### Retail Price 

### Installation CLife 

### Cycle CostAnalysis Cost * How willstandards impact equipmentprice, installation cost (and maintenance/service costs)? * Whatare the drawbacks, ifany, ofinferring equipment retail prices byapplying a series ofmarkups to ourproduction cost estimates? * Given that the equipmentprice isjustone component ofthe price ofthe installedsystem, is itlikelythatinformation gathered through asurveycouldhelp determine retailprices ormarkups? III.D. EngAnalysis 083001 Retail Price and Installation Cost

. Overview Retail prices and installation costs at various efficiency levels are needed to estimate consumer life cycle costs.



### • I '



### • • Retail Price Installation Cost Life Cycle CostAnalysis How willstandards impact equipmentprice, installation cost (and maintenance/service costs)? What are the drawbacks, ifany, ofinferring equipment retail prices byapplying

### a series ofmarkups to ourproduction cost estimates? Given that the equipmentprice isjust one component ofthe price ofthe installedsystem, is it likely thatinformation gathered through a surveycouldhelp determine retail-prices ormarkups? 111.0. Eng Analysis 08300I 7

### Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# Building Energy Use & Electric Load Shape Characterization David Winiarski (david.winiarski@pnl.gov) 

### Pacific Northwest National Laboratory U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 

### Commercial Air Conditioners 

### and Heat Pumps 

# Building Energy Use & 

# Electric Load Shape Characterization I>avid VViniarski (david.winiarski@pnl.gov) 

### Pacific Northwest National Laboratory**U.S~** DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001e' , Building Energy Use and Load Shape

Ad Characterization Overview 'if __~ I~eA~P~391~'p-~_ ~ ",,- ':-. · The purpose ofthe building energy use and load shape characterization analysis is to assess the energy and peak demand savings potential of different equipment efficiencies across the range ofcommercial building types and climate zones. 

## 5 5Development and Characterizmulation of Equipment Load Building Stock: Profiles Possible Sources Building Prototypes CBECS, MAISY (Possible Tools: Utility/Industry data BLAST, Demand Profildines Energy Plus) Demand Profiles k.F
Time III-D-2- 2 Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization Overview The purpose ofthe. building energy use and load shape characterization analysis is to assess the energy and peak demand savings,potential of different equipment efficiencies across the range ofcommercial building types and climate zones.

Characterization of Building Stock: Possible Sources CBECS, MAISY Utility/Industry data**~** ... 

# . gr. I ./ 

# '\ Development and Simulation of Building Prototypes (Possible Tools: 

# / BLAST, DOE2.1 E, Energy Plus) 

# '\ /

>. Ol
..... Q) c W \. Equipment Load Profiles & Whole Building Demand**Profile~**

Time 111-0-2- 2Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization Request for Stakeholder Input 

### The Departmentseeks stakeholderinputon the tools and othersourcesof dataconcerningU.S. commercialbuilding stock characteristics for energy-related modeling purposes. Doyou agreewith the use of these tools? What otherdatasourcescouldstakeholdersmake available to bettercharacterizebuildingstockusingthese unitary equipment(e.g. regional productshippingdata, utility customersurveys, orothersurvey data)?

III-D-2- 3 Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization Request for Stakeholder Input 

### The Departmentseeks stakeholder input on the tools and othersources of data concerning U.S. commercial building stock characteristics for energy-relatedmodelingpurposes. Do you agree with the use of these tools? What otherdata sources couldstakeholders make available
, to better characterize buildingstock usingthese unitary equipment (e.g. regionalproductshippingdata, utility customersurveys, orothersurvey data)?
I1I-D-2- 3

# i; Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization .b Request for Stakeholder Input 

### Specific Modeling Concerns

- Buildings with commercial unitary AC and HPs are likely to use economizers that provide cooling independent ofthe efficiency ofthe equipment. What assumptionsshouldbe made in modelingthe equipmentregarding the use of,and control strategyappliedto, economizers? -Commercial unitary AC and HPs may be oversized to allow for growth, which affects the run time, energy performance, and latent heat removal capability. Whatassumptionsshould be made abouthow equipmentis sizedin orderto addressit correctlyin the analysis from both an energy and firstcost impact? III-D-2- 4 .' I Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization Request for Stakeholder Input

II Specific Modeling Concerns

- Buildings with commercial unitary AC and HPs are likely to use economizers that provide cooling independent ofthe efficiency ofthe equipment. What assumptions shouldbe made in modeling the equipment regarding the use of, and control strategy applied to, economizers? Commercial unitary AC and HPs may be oversized to allow for growth, which affects the run time, energy perfonnance, and latent heat removal capability. What assumptions should be mqde about how equipment is sized in order to address it correctly in the analysisfrom both an energy and first cost impact? III-D-2- 4

### yK Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization ji Request for Stakeholder Input 

### Specific Modeling Concerns

- Due to the varied ductwork designs for various commercial buildings the fan static pressures will vary significantly.

What assumptionsshouldbe made regardingtypicalduct designs in orderto effectively accountforfanenergy use? 

### -Supply fans on commercial unitary AC and HPs generally operate continuously when the building is occupied to provide ventilation air. Howshouldenergy use ofthesupply fans operatingonly when ventilationis required(ratherthan

heatingorcooling)be excluded from (orincorporated with) the energy use of the heatingandcoolingequipment? III-D-2- 5 Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization. Request for Stakeholder Input

" '........ ':'" • Specific Modeling Concerns

- Due to the varied ductwork designs for various commercial buildings the fan static pressures will vary significantly. 

### What assumptionsshouldbe made regarding typical duct designs in order to effectively account/or fan energy use?

- Supply fans on commercial unitary AC and HPs generally operate continuously when the building is occupied to provide ventilation air. 

### How shouldenergy use of the supply fans operating only when ventilation is required (rather than

heating or cooling) be excludedfrom (or incorporatedwith) the energy use of the heating andcooling equipment? III-D-2- 5

## Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

-. X... .' r,,.. ~r ~Z"- ... '~' :: · :::.-.... , 

# Life Cycle CostAnalysis James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

## U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 , . 

## Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# Life Cycle CostAnalysis James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence BerkeleyNational·Laboratory 

## U.s. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary AirConditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Purpose Analyze "the savings in operating costs throughout the average life ofthe covered product in the type (or class) compared to any increase in the price of, or in the initial charges for, or maintenance expenses of, the covered products which are likely to result from the imposition ofstandards." (§325 (0)(2)(B)(i)(II)) [EPCA]
III.E. 1 I

### .

.. 

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Purpose

• . ,.' ,ro'"." 'l.:-"**1'"~~.~~·~/:~;.!~'i::.~:;::;**.;".' .,' . 

## • Analyze "the savings in operating costs throughout the average life ofthe covered product in the type (or class)**compare~** 

## to any increase inthe price of, orin the initial charges for, or maintenance expenses of, the.

. coveredproducts which are likely to result

• I 

## from the imposition ofstandards." (§325 (O)(2)(B)(i)(II)) [EPCA]
lILE.l

## . . Life Cycle Cost is the Sum ofInitial Cost and Lifetime Operating Costs

. Cumulative Cash Flow (undiscounted) L~*T~P_ TNr~ 4T~ $ ~I *Life Cycle Cost (discounted) WLCC 

### =I | $ 5 Initial stalled cost 

## N[O/(l+r) t

## ] where

- IC- Initial installed cost



## - 

## O= Annual operating expense

- r= Discount rate

- 

### t= years (sum over IC equipment lifetime) Years ProductLife II.E.2 

## Life Cycle Cost is the Sum

.ofInitial Cost and Lifetime Operating Costs

. 

# · Lee = 

# Ie + L[O/(l

## +r)t] 

## ·where

- Ie = 

### Initial installed cost - 0 = 

### Annual operating expense - r 

## =Discount rate - t = 

### years (sum over equipment lifetime) 

### Ie $ - _._ - ••• ·PM ••••_. • ••• ",' • • _ _. • _ •••••••••• _._._ •••• 

### I mJ Cwnclative Cash Flow**(unclli,c-~~ted)** .. ! 

### I • Life Cycle Cost (discOlmted) I 

### oInitial mstalled cost

- .- - -- - _ ..... _. --- - ,-",.... -

Product Life

- - - - - ..- _..,.. " -.' -- -' Years III.E.2fIf. ~Life 

## Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders

· Are the proposedapproachesreasonable? 

## * Shouldregionalvariationsin climateandenergy pricebe analyzedinANOPR stageorlater

(NOPR)? * Are theproposeddatasourcesreasonable? * Shouldequipmentlifetimes dependon operating hours, climate, orotherapplication-specific variables? Shouldlifetimes be thesame forall productclasses?
III.E.3 

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

## DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders
• Are theproposedapproaches reasonable? • Should regional variations in climate andenergy price be analyzed inANOPRstage or later

(NOPR)? • "Are theproposeddata sources reasonable? • Should equipment lifetimes depend on operating hours, climate, or otherapplication-specific variables? Should lifetimes be the same for all product classes?
III.EJ

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# iiy Inputs (1) Installed Cost: The price paid for an air conditioner or heat pump, including installation 

# Possible data sources

- Current or recent purchase prices

- Calculated from manufacturer costs plus markups (manufacturer, dealer, distributor, contractor) plus sales tax and installation cost
III.E.4 

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Inputs (1)

• I.**,...,;~.** .\' j'"**~ ~.~~:Y':~~.':':~.ii:"'::'"**  J.....**~ .~;.**  

## • Installed Cost: The price paid for an air conditioner orheatpump, including installation 

## . • Possible data sources

- Current or recent purchaseprices

- Calculated from manufacturer costs plus markups (manufacturer, dealer, distributor, contractor) plus sales tax and installation cost
III.EA-J 

## ^ 

# 'Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# '| 

# EInputs (2) Operating Expenses:

- Energy and maintenance costs

- Lifetime ofthe air conditioner or heat pump

- Discount rate (for calculating present value offuture operating expenses) 

# Possible approach and data sources

- Annual energy consumption by air conditioner or heat pump (derived from CBECS, other commercially available 'data sets and/or simulations)

- Current and forecasted regional energy price trends (from EIA/AEO) applied to marginal prices

- Gather and analyze data on lifetimes, discount rates

- 

### Survey ofcommercial tariffs and utility marginal costs III.E.5 

## Life Cycle CostAnalysis: 

# Inputs (2)

.... iiiiiiii... _________ .•.**·.~~~iff~~"·\~~~':r~:·:~~····:::·~:/:·** ":, .' 

## • Operating Expenses:

- Energy and maintenance costs

- Lifetime ofthe air conditioner orheat pump
_. Discount rate (for calculating present value offuture operating expenses) 

## • Possible approach and data sources

- Annual energy consumption by air conditioner or heat pump (derived from CBECS, other commercially available 'data sets and/or simulations)

- Current and forecasted regional energyprice trends (from EIAIAEO) applied to marginal prices

- Gather and analyze data on lifetimes, discount rates , - Survey ofcommercial tariffs and utility·marginal costs III.E.5

## 3t:' ~ 

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# | Illustrative LCCs for Generic Options A range ofefficiencies will I be analyzed and compared to U a!.. 

### E Operating 

### andmaintenance costs 1baseln. I Installed costs 

### baseline. In this example, 3 options have reduced operating costs

- Option 1= lower LCC -Option 2 = lowest LCC, but higher installed costs

- Option 3 = higher LCC and . . highest installed costs Baseline Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Efficiency Options III.E.6 

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

## Illustrative LCCs for Generic Options • A**rang~** 

### ofefficiencies will be'analyzed and compared to baseline. 

# • In this example, 3 options have reduced operating costs

- Option 1

### =lower

### Lee '

, ' ,-, Option 2 = lowest 

### Lee, but higher installed costs Option 3 

### =higher 

### Lee and highest installed costs

.. -.... - - --- H -- ,-, 'I o Operating and maintenance costsl I • Installed costs I

---.1,·-· , ,----.i..,,--.- -·......_ ..1 I I

Baseline Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 Efficiency Options

. .- -- - -.-- .... ...--_. .... . - ..... ...._----_...-......__........ III.E.6

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Analyze Variability and Uncertainty Objectives:

- Analyze variability among applications and operating conditions (e.g., climate, building characteristics, operation, electricity prices)



## - Rigorous treatment ofuncertainty 

# Technical Approach:

- Use commercially available software

- Use distributions for each input, not point estimates

- Public access via Web, training
III.E.7 

## Life Cycle CostAnalysis: 

## Analyze Variability andUncertainty

. ..: .',y... "Ii"·.. !t>**.~** 

## • Objectives: ,- Analyze variability among applications and operating conditions (e.g., climate, building characteristics, operation, electricityprices)



## - Rigorous treatment ofuncertainty 

## • Technical Approach: , - Use commercially available software

- Use distributions for each input, not point estimates

- Public access via Web, training

III.E.7

## ||' Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Analysis Issues Whose Perspective

- Owner

- User 

# Demand Charges

- Highly variable 

# Utility Deregulation

- Future developments

- Price impacts
III.E.8 

### Life Cycle CostAnalysis: 

## Analysis Issues • Whose Perspective

- Owner

- User 

## • Demand Charges

- Highly variable 

## ,. Utility Deregulation

- Future developments

- Price impacts .,- . '.**:.~;** .' . "', . ":,.

III.E.8

## e» ~Life 

## Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Results Summarize Results for Each Possible Efficiency Improvement

- Average (or median) LCC savings

- Percent ofconsumers with net savings or with net costs 

# Importance analysis

- Identify key inputs that contribute most to uncertainty or variability
III.E.9 

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Results • Summarize Results for Each Possible Efficiency Improvement

- Average (or median) LCC savings

- Percent ofconsumers with net savings orwith net costs

I '. 

## Importance analysis

- Identify key inputs that contribute most to uncertainty orvariability
III.E.9

# BACKUP SLIDES Life Cycle Cost Analysis • "" ".' • • ':,' " ••**'~'** j**~** 

## BACKUP SLIDES Life Cycle Cost Analysis

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Uncertainty and Variability Identify key sources ofuncertainty and variability

- Uncertainty: incomplete information

- Variability: range ofvalues 

## Estimate input ranges rather than point values

- Minimum, likeliest, maximum values 

## Conduct scenario ("what-if') analysis Simulate over input ranges Express output as ranges

- Summarize with percent ofconsumers having lower life 

## cycle cost III.E. 1 

## Life Cycle'Cost Analysis: 

# Uncertainty and Variability

•• ",'J" ........ ' • 

## • Identify key sources ofuncertainty and variability

- Uncertainty: incomplete information

- Variability: range ofvalues 

## • Estimate input ranges rather thanpoint values

- Minimum, likeliest, maximum values 

## '.' Conduct scenario ("what-if') analysis·

•**Simula~e** 

## over input ranges • ,Express output as ranges

- Summarize with percent ofconsumers having lower life cycle cost III.E.II

## 'g ~ Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

# Simulation Method Select one building from sample population

- Use weighted sampling (to represent appropriate fraction oftotal population)

- Actual monthly energy bills

- Estimate annual energy consumption by air conditioner or heat pump 

## Calculate price ofenergy

- Calculate marginal price for electricity

- Apply time trends to estimate future prices 

## Sample given uncertainties

- Manufacturers' costs, markups, lifetime, discount rate 

## Calculate LCC III.E. 12 

## Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

## Simulation Method • Select one building from samplepopulation

- Use weighted sampling (to represent appropriate fraction

. oftotal population)

- Actual monthly energy bills

- Estimate annual energy consumption

### by air conditioner orheat pump 

## • Calculateprice ofenergy

- Calculate marginal price for electricity

- Apply time trends to estimate future prices 

## • Sample given uncertainties

- Manufacturers' costs, markups, lifetime, discount rate 

## • Calculate 

# Lee III.E. J2

# Process for making models transparent and robust Make models as simple as possible Make copies ofmodels accessible to public

- On Internet

- Available from US DOE or contractor 

## Make models easy to use

- Graphical user interface, option menus

- Develop documentation 

## Provide training

- Central location (e.g., public workshop)

- On-site at stakeholder location

- Computer link or videoconference III.E. 13 · , 

## Process for 

## making models 

## transparent and robust

, • ;." .........: J.,.A, 

## • Make models as simple as possible • Make copies ofmodels accessible to public

- On Internet

- Available from US DOE or contractor 

## • Make models easy to use

- Graphical user interface, option menus

- Develop documentation 

## • Provide training

- Central location (e.g., public workshop)

- On-site at stakeholder location

- Computer link or videoconference III.E.I3

# Consumer Subgroup Analysis James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

## DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 

# Consumer Subgroup Analysis James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence BerkeleyNational Laboratory 

## DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001

## Excerpt from "Principles for the Analysis ofImpacts on Consumers" ,,m. ; m.ffF:?.:..;.'> *'- " 

## "The Department will use regional analysis and sensitivity analysis tools, as appropriate, to evaluate the potential distribution ofimpacts of candidate standards levels on consumers. The Department will consider impacts on significant segments ofsociety in determining standards levels. Where there are significant negative impacts on identifiable subgroups, DOE will consider the efficacy ofvoluntary approaches as a means to achieve potential energy savings."

Appendix A to Subpart C ofPart 430, Code ofFederal Regulations; 61 FR 36981, 86-871 (July 15, 1996) III.F.I 

## 'Excerpt from "Principles for the Analysis ofImpacts on Consumers" • "TheDepartment will use regional analysis and sensitiyity analysis tools, as appropriate, to evaluate the potential distribution ofimpacts of candidate standards levels on consumers. The
, 

## Department'will consider impacts on significant segments ofsociety in determining standards levels. Where there are significantnegative ,. impacts on identifiable subgroups, DOE will consider the efficacy ofvoluntary approaches as a means to achieve potential energy savings."

, Appendix A to Subpart C ofPart430, Code ofFederal Regulations; 61 FR 36981,86-871 (July 15, 1996) III.F.1

# LCC Subgroup Analysis: COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS: where disproportionate impacts from standards may occur, some subgroups may be analyzed. What subgroups should be considered for commercial unitary air conditioners and heat pumps? (e.g., owner-occupant, tenantleased, public sector etc.) III.F.2 

# LCC Subgroup Analysis:

• COM·M·ERCIAL PRODUCTS: where
I 

## disproportionate impacts from standards may occur, some subgroups may be analyzed..

I e. 

## What subgroups shouldbe considered for commercial unitary air conditioners and heat pumps? (e.g., owner-occupant, tenantleased, public sector etc.)
III.F.2

# NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

### U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat 

### Pumps September 12, 2001 

# NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

# u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12,2001.11 National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

# Overview Energy consumption for commercial space cooling by equipment class will be calculated for a base case and standards cases The difference between base case consumption and consumption in each standards case represents energy savings Results will be reported in physical units (kwh site energy) (quadrillion Btus source energy) and economic units (dollars) for each year and cumulatively The period ofanalysis is from start date ofstandard to about 30 years later (ca. 2040) III.G. I National Energy Saving and Net PresentValue Analysis: 

## Overview

•**~** • r. ", .'**~** .'to: ''; 

### • Energy consumption for commercial space cooling by

.equipment class will be calculated for a base case and

standards cases • The difference between base case consumption and consumption in each standards case represents energy

. 

### saVIngs • Results will be reportedinphysical units (kwh 

### site energy) (quadrillion Btus source energy) and economic units (dollars) for each year and cumulatively • The period ofanalysis is from start date ofstandard to ,about 30 years later (ca. 2040) III.O. INational Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

# Methods for Forecasting Shipments Extrapolate from time series

- No explicit accounting for number ofbuildings, percent 

### owning equipment, changes in installed cost or operating expense 

## Forecast using accounting model

- New buildings and percent by equipment type

- Replacement as function ofequipment lifetime 

## Consider impacts ofexisting non-regulatory efforts on base case efficiencies in future years. III.G.2 National Energy'Saving andNet Present Value Analysis: 

## Methods for Forecasting Shipments
• Extrapolate from time series -' No explicit accounting for number ofbuildings, percent owning equipment, changes in installed cost or operating expense 

## . • Forecast using accounting model

- New buildings andpercentby equipment type

- Replacement as function ofequipment lifetime 

## • Consider impacts ofexisting non-regulatory

. efforts onbase case efficiencies infuture years. III.G.2National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

# DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders on Shipments What otherapproachesshouldthe Departmentconsiderto establishthe forecasts forbasecase andstandards cases?

What informationsources for pastshipment databy efficiency level areavailable?

What existingnon-regulatoryinitiatives shouldbe consideredin the base case?
III.G.3 National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

## DOE Requests 

# Input from Stakeholders on Shipments

.. . ...•.. "t '-r-" ..**~~1~:;::P~.:::.·~;:;·~~:~fr··€<'~;:·** :r' 

## • What otherapproaches should the Depa.rtment consider to establish the '. forecastsfor base case andstandards cases? • What information sources forpastshipment

. data by efficiency level are available? • What existing non-regulatory initiatives should be considered in the base case?
III.G.3

### i|^ National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

## Consumer Economic Factors Operating Operating Expenses Depend on expenses: typically thousands of o

### AC or HP aEquipment capacity dollars per building * Climate * Energy prices per year * Building loads and usage 

### Purchase Pese . tPurchase Expenses Depend on 

### expenses: typically thousands of thousan *ACor HP * Equipment capacity dollars per * 

### Location * Split or Single Package 

### installation · New or Replacement Construction III.G.4 

### National Energy Saving andNet Present Value Analysis: 

## Consumer Economic Factors • Operating expenses: typically thousands of dollars per building 

### peryear • Purchase expenses: typically thousands of dollars per installation Operating Expenses Depend on • AC or HP 0 

### Equipment capacity • Climate • Energy prices . • Building loads andusage 

### Purchase Expenses Depend on •

AC orHP • Equipment capacity • Location • Split or Single Package • New or Replacement Construction III.GA

### National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

## Equipment Class Distribution Chart at right shows0 : ?-:?: ,':,' : * SplitSystems 

### estimated equipment 1600 

### shipped tonnage from 1400 Single Packa 

### census -data(1997) 

## a> : l 

### DOE 

### Needs to ' 1200 

### 'I.G. determine shipments c 

### - 

### to building type and 

## n o . . region for national : - ' 

### . V) 400 ". 

### energy savings 

### analysis 200 AC 65-135 HP 65-135 AC 135-240 HP 135-240 III.G.5 / 

### National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

## Equipment Class Distribution
• Chart at right 

### shows 'estimated e'quipment shipped tonnage from census 'data (1997) • DOE

### Needs to determine shipments to building

### type and 

### region for national • 

### energy savIngs analysis . . . '. .' .;',::" ).- 1800 1600 . 1400 >- ... m .. 'u- t: 1200 ," . . C'G 0< . a. f- . cu "C 1000 Ot: "C**~** 800·. Q) ::l '. a. Co 0 600· 

## .-**~**.t:fen - 4001':."..<••,••••. , 200 o • Split Systems 1m Single Package

.....

AC 65·135 HP 65-135 AC 135-240 HP 135-240 III.G.5¥':~ National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

# 3 

# tMethod: Net Present Value (NPV) For each year analyzed, calculate the difference in installed costs and operating costs between the base case and each standards case Discount future values to the present

- Include operating costs over lifetime ofequipment purchased 

## Sum over years to get NPV

- Ifpresent value ofsavings exceeds costs, NPV is positive.

- Ifpresent value ofcosts exceeds savings, NPV is negative.
III.G.6 National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis:



## Method:Net Present Value (NPV)

••**.~.** 10·, •• ••**r.~ ~**  ., • 

## • For each,year analyzed, calculate the difference in

I 

## installed costs and operating costs between the base

case and each standards case • Discount future values to the present , - Include operating**~osts** 

### over lifetime ofequipment purchased

• I 

## Sum over years to get NPV

- Ifpresent value ofsavings exceeds costs, NPV is positive.

- If**pres~nt** 

### value ofcosts exceeds savings, NPV is negative.

III.G.6~~- S l Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

# MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 • I Commercial Air Conditioners and HeatPumps 

## MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS Mark Kendall (kendall.mark@adlittle.com) Arthur D. Little, Inc. U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001S:* Manufacturer Impact Analysis To explore the economic and competitive issues, the Manufacturer Impact Analysis (MIA) asks several questions.

· Whatimpacts willstandards have on...

- Industry cash flows and netpresent value?

- Product flow through distribution channels?

- Manufacturing capacity?

- Industry employment levels?

- Competition? * Whatproducts orsubgroups may beparticularlysensitive to impacts of newstandards? * What otherregulations contribute to a cumulative regulatory burden on manufacturers, and what is theircombined impact? * Should the Department consider other topics beside competition, employment, capacity utilization and cumulative burden?
1 Manufacturer Impact Analysis

. '. Ioj:." ",,1: To expl'ore the economic and competitive issues, the Manufacturer Impact Analysis (MIA) asks several questions. • What impacts will standards have on...

- Industiycash flows andnetpresent value?

- Product flow through distribution channels?

- Manufacturing capacity?

- Industry employmentlevels?

- Competition? • Whatproducts orsubgroups maybe particularlysensitive to impacts of newstandards? • What otherregulations contribute to a cumulative regulatory burden on manufacturers, and what is'theircombined impact? • Should the Departmentconsiderother topics beside competition, employment, capacity utilization and cumulative burden?
1

# EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

### U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 · ...'**~** :. _**if·~·** 

## EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

# u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12,2001Employment Impact Analysis:



### . 

# Both Direct and Indirect Employment 

# A• IImpacts Occur Direct employment impacts are estimated in the manufacturer impact analysis Indirect employment impacts occur from

- Shifting consumer expenditures among goods (substitution effect)

- Changing equipment and energy costs (income effect)

111.I.I . , Employment Impact Analysis: 

## Both Direct and Indirect Employment Impacts Occur**??~t\:!r.:**. .:**'!~'$~:~.:b}"'~ ">':~:'::',**  ;':.. :-":" 

## • Direct employment impacts are estimated in the manufacturer impact analysis • Indirect employment impacts occur from

- Shifting consumer expenditures among goods (substitution effect)

- Changing equipment and energy costs (income effect)

IlLLl

### Employment Impact Analysis: 

# DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders Whatmethods shouldbe usedto estimate employment impacts?

111.1.2 . I Employment Impact Analysis: 

# "1." .DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders
• What methods shouldbe usedto estimate employment impacts?

IILl.2

# UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

### U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 , ' • '.'**~'.** .,..••**~**•••**~.** 1"**~** 

## UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (lEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando L,awrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

### ·U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and

, 

### Heat Pumps September 12, 2001

### Utility Impact Analysis: 

# PURPOSE AND METHOD PURPOSE

- Estimate effects on electricity suppliers ofreduced energy sales due to new energy efficiency standards 

## METHOD uses NEMS-BRS

- Integrated model ofU.S. energy sector, including supply and demand

- Publicly available model, with forecast through 2020 * extrapolate beyond 2020

- Current basis: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001 * will update model when EIA does (usually annually) 11.J.I Utility Impact Analysis: 

## PURPOSE AND METHOD

• •**~'f.** " :. 'O'}"**~:'** 

## • PURPOSE

- Estimate effects on electricity suppliers ofreduced energy sales due to new energy efficiency standards 

## • METHOD uses NEMS-BRS

- Integrated model of

# u.s. energy sector, including supply and demand

- Publicly available model, with forecast through 2020 • extrapolate beyond 2020

- Current basis: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001 • will update model when EIA does (usually annually) IlLJ.}

### Utility Impact Analysis: 

# INPUTS Annual energy consumption and savings for commercial unitary air conditioners and heat pumps from National Energy Saving spreadsheet All other inputs from EIA

III.J.2 Utility ImpactAnalysis: 

## INPUTS

, 

## • Annual energy consumption and savings for commercial unitary air conditioners and heatpumps from National Energy Saving spreadsheet • All other inputs from EIA

111.1.2

### Utility Impact Analysis: 

# METHOD and OUTPUT METHOD

- NEMS-BRS balances all supply and demand given 

## savings from new energy efficiency standard OUTPUT

- Change in energy sales and price by fuel type 

## (electricity, gas, oil) by region

- Change in mix ofelectricity generation



## - Change in new capacity construction III.J.3 Utility Impact Analysis: 

## METHOD and OUTPUT ·'MET'HOD

- NEMS-BRS balances all supply and demand given savings from new energy efficiency standard 

## • OUTPUT " - Change in energy sales and price by fuel type (electricity, gas, oil) byregion

- Change in mix ofelectricity generation , - Change innew capacity construction 111.1.3

### Utility Impact Analysis: 

# DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders -soI., .':;. I . ::i.:? :',: -.... 

# Shouldwe considerusingalternative methods to NEMSfor conductingthe utility impactsanalysis?

III.J.4 Utility Impact Analysis: 

## DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders

. " '. .. ".....**~**...**~~** '. 

## • Shouldwe consider usingalternative methods to NEMS for conducting the utility impacts analysis?

III.JA

# ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

### U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12, 2001 · 

## '. ". • •• i \ ......... . 

## ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS James E. McMahon (JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) Ernest Orlando Lawrence BerkeleyNational Laboratory 

# u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps September 12,2001Environmental Impact Analysis: 

# PURPOSE and METHOD PURPOSE

- Estimate impacts from new energy efficiency 

## standards 

## METHOD

- NEMS-BRS model

III.K. 1 Environmental Impact Analysis: 

## PURPOSE and METHOD • PURPOSE

- Estimate impacts from new energy efficiency standards 

## • METHOD

- NEMS-BRS model

III.K.l

### Environmental Impact Analysis: 

# OUTPUT Impacts from new energy efficiency standards on

- Quantities ofU.S. emissions ofcarbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from energy supply systems

- Trading price ofSO2

III.K.2 Environmental Impact Analysis: 

## OUTPUT

. ,_; .:·..;··,·1.··.... 

## •**I~pacts** 

## from new energy efficiency standards on

, ' 

### - Quantities ofU.S. emissions ofcarbon dioxide (C02) 

### and nitrogen oxides.(NOx) from energy supply systems

- Tradingprice of

## S02

III.K.2Environmental Impact Analysis: 

# DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders Are thereany otherenvironmentalfactors

theDepartment shouldconsider? If so, whatadditional analyticalmethods areappropriate foraddressingthem?

III.K.3 Environmental Impact Analysis: 

## DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders

. :. -,".... ,.. ",- 

## • Are 

# th,ere any other environmental/actors the Departmentshouldconsider? • If 

# SO, whatadditional analytical methods are appropriate/oraddressing them?

, '

IILK.3