SFI Strategic

Foresight Initiative

Crisis Response 

and Disaster Resilience 2030:

Forging Strategic Action in an Age of Uncertainty

Progress Report Highlighting the 2010-2011 Insights 

of the Strategic Foresight Initiative

January 2012
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The Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) project was coordinated by FEMA in conjunction with the emergency 

management community writ large. The views expressed in this report are a synthesis of the work and 

learning of all involved.

A special thanks to the United States Coast Guard for use of their work with scenario planning. USCG made 

available its newly developed Project Evergreen scenarios as a resource for the SFI to expand upon.
SFI Strategic

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MESSAGE FROM THE FEMA OFFICE OF POLICY AND PROGRAM 

ANALYSIS DIRECTOR

The emergency management community faces a future with challenges likely to be far different from 

those we confront today. Powerful drivers of change such as globalization, technological development, 

and the changing roles of individuals in society have real potential to reshape the context within which 

we will operate. Addressing these transformations will be challenging; confronting the complexity that 

arises from the interaction of multiple drivers – such as demographic shifts, technology, environmental 

changes, and economic uncertainty – will require entirely new approaches, tools, and capabilities. 

Public safety, public security, and disaster management organizations have already taken some steps to 

address these emerging challenges. However, the increasing pace and complexity of change calls for 

inclusive engagement and action so that we can proactively plan for and address shifting trends 

together, as a community of practice. To do this requires the emergency management community to

establish and maintain a foresight capability. Foresight does not promote a singular vision or 

prediction. Instead, it considers a broad spectrum of plausible outcomes to help inform decisionmaking under uncertain conditions. 

The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) established the Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) 

to address this need. This initiative has brought together a wide cross-section of the emergency 

management community to explore key future issues, trends and other factors, and to work through

their implications. Working collaboratively and with urgency, we are beginning to understand the full 

range of changes we could encounter and the nature of our future needs; and we can begin to execute a 

shared agenda for action.

This report presents the findings from foresight efforts thus far, including: uncertainties that define and 

drive the future environment; strategic needs and gaps our community will have to address; a look into 

the emergency management community of 2030; and finally, suggested next steps for the community to 

prepare for the future. The strategic needs in particular – grouped into Essential Capabilities, 

Innovative Models and Tools, and Dynamic Partnerships – are intended as a catalyst for leaders

throughout the emergency management community to prepare themselves and the Nation for the 

challenges and opportunities the future holds.

The products of this foresight initiative are offered as a starting point for dialogue and active 

consideration throughout the emergency management community. The thoughts and ideas presented 

in this report do not encompass all of the nuances and situations we will meet in the future. Rather, 

they offer a foundation for developing a shared understanding of potential future challenges and how,

working together, we may address these challenges. 

The work of the SFI is not possible without the participation of many dedicated professionals from 

across the United States, spanning many fields and disciplines, as well as our international colleagues. 

These contributions have already generated tremendous knowledge and insight, and will carry this 

work forward to meet our shared future demands. 

David J. Kaufman

Director, FEMA Office of Policy and Program Analysis
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TABLE OF CONTENTS 

Message from the FEMA Office of Policy and Program Analysis Director.......................................... i

List of Acronyms and Definitions....................................................................................................................iv

I. Introduction to the Strategic Foresight Initiative ..............................................................................1

Overview and Purpose .................................................................................................................................................. 1

A Guidepost to Understanding Our Future Landscape .................................................................................... 2

The SFI Process and Report Structure.................................................................................................................... 3

II. Exploring Forces of Change.........................................................................................................................6

Social and Technological Drivers .............................................................................................................................. 7

Environmental Driver.................................................................................................................................................... 8

Economic and Political Drivers.................................................................................................................................. 9

III. Identifying Strategic Needs...................................................................................................................... 11

The SFI Scenario Workshop......................................................................................................................................12

Essential Capabilities ...................................................................................................................................................13

Innovative Models & Tools ........................................................................................................................................15

Dynamic Partnerships .................................................................................................................................................18

IV. A Future Glimpse into Emergency Management.............................................................................. 21

Essential Capabilities in 2030 ..................................................................................................................................21

Innovative Models and Tools in 2030...................................................................................................................22

Dynamic Partnerships in 2030 ................................................................................................................................22

V. The Way Forward........................................................................................................................................ 24

Appendix A–The SFI Process .......................................................................................................................... 26

Environmental Scanning ............................................................................................................................................26

Scenario Planning..........................................................................................................................................................29

Advancing and Sustaining Strategic Foresight..................................................................................................31

Appendix B–SFI Drivers ................................................................................................................................... 32

Social and Technological Drivers:...........................................................................................................................32

Environmental Driver:.................................................................................................................................................33

Economic and Political Drivers:...............................................................................................................................33

Appendix C – SFI Participating Organizations.......................................................................................... 35
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LIST OF ACRONYMS AND DEFINITIONS 

DHS United States Department of Homeland Security

DNI United States Director of National Intelligence

Driver Forces of change that will individually and collectively shape 

the future environment in unpredictable ways 

Emergency 

Management

The field of practice responsible for preparing for, preventing, 

protecting against, mitigating the effects of, responding to, and 

recovering from all threats and hazards. 

Emergency 

Management 

Community

The broad community of practice involved in emergency

management. This community includes, but is not limited to the 

following: traditional state, local, federal, and tribal emergency 

managers; those in public security, public health, and public 

safety agencies; first responders; public works; business partners; 

non-governmental organizations (NGOs); federal agencies with 

equities in emergency management; and academicians who have 

studied or published on the topic of emergency management. 

FEMA Federal Emergency Management Agency 

NGO Non-Governmental Organization 

NIC United States National Intelligence Council 

Strategic Action Those actions taken to meet future strategic needs 

SFI Strategic Foresight Initiative

Strategic Need The capabilities, tools, partnerships, and other resources

emergency managers would need to be successful in future 

operating environments 

USCG United States Coast Guard
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I. INTRODUCTION TO THE STRATEGIC FORESIGHT INITIATIVE

Overview and Purpose

As the emergency management community1 looks toward 2030, one thing is certain – the world 

will not look the same as it does today. Shifting demographics and the rate of technological 

innovation will challenge the way we plan and communicate with the public. Constraints on 

spending at all levels—federal, state, local, and tribal—are forcing and will continue to force us to 

rethink what activities we can truly afford to do and how to build partnerships to accomplish our 

objectives. At the same time, more frequent and more intense storms will present operational 

challenges and complexities. Any of these issues alone would challenge some current emergency 

management policies and procedures. In combination, these and other forces of change produce a 

difficult, highly uncertain future, the complexity of which will test the ability of the emergency 

management community to execute our mission. Exploring the nature of such future challenges can 

help us take actions to improve our Nation’s resilience and adaptability.

Launched in 2010, the Strategic Foresight Initiative (SFI) is a transformative, community-wide 

effort to create an enduring foresight capability. It is intended to advance strategic planning and 

thinking about the future, to prepare the community both for emerging challenges and for the key 

opportunities presented by our changing environment. Its core focus is to understand the factors 

driving change in our world, and to analyze how they will impact the emergency management field 

in the United States over the next 20 years. Thinking more broadly, rigorously, and over a longer 

timeframe will help us:

• Hedge against uncertainty;

• Avoid strategic surprises;

• Promote information sharing across disciplines and organizations; 

• Understand what changes could affect emergency management; and

• Prepare and plan to more effectively operate in our future environment. 

Fundamentally, the SFI seeks two outcomes: (1) an emergency management community prepared 

for whatever challenges the future holds; and (2) a common sense of direction and urgency, to drive 

action toward meeting our shared future needs—starting today. Achieving these objectives will 

require ongoing conversations among diverse stakeholders, the creation of a common sense of

 

1 Emergency Management: The field of practice responsible for preparing for, preventing, protecting against, 

mitigating the effects of, responding to, and recovering from all threats and hazards.

Emergency Management Community: The broad community of practice involved in emergency management. This 

community includes, but is not limited to the following: traditional state, local, federal, and tribal emergency managers; 

those in public security, public health, and public safety agencies; first responders; public works; business partners; nongovernmental organizations (NGOs); federal agencies with equities in emergency management; and academicians who 

have studied or published on the topic of emergency management. 
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awareness, and leadership throughout the community to make the needed changes to prepare our 

Nation for the future.

This report is intended to provide planners and managers with insights that can shape a range of 

critical decisions, starting today. Such decisions—which can be made in advance of disasters—

include improving prioritization of resources and investments, managing new and unfamiliar risks, 

forging new partnerships, and understanding emerging legal and regulatory hurdles. 

A Guidepost to Understanding Our Future Landscape 

The SFI explored forces of change (i.e., drivers), plausible future operating conditions, challenges,

and opportunities, and was designed to identify what the emergency management community 

would need to be successful, regardless of what the future holds. Throughout the process, as we 

gained more knowledge and discussed ideas and thoughts, we continued to ask: How has our view 

of the future changed? Have we missed anything critical? What are the secondary and tertiary

implications of what we have found? What have been significant and recurring ideas time and 

again? Pondering these questions resulted in a number of insights, high-level observations to 

inform and guide decision-makers in the more immediate term. These insights are a set of 

recurring themes or conditions that we should consider as we build actions to meet our future 

needs. They are not intended as predictions of how the future will unfold; rather, they are intended 

to serve as a lens through which to view our future landscape and the actions we as a community 

will need to take to be successful. 

As stated throughout this document, the emergency management community faces increasing 

complexity and decreasing predictability in its operating environment. Complexity will take the 

form of more incidents, new and unfamiliar threats, more information to analyze (possibly with less 

time to process it), new players and participants, sophisticated technologies, and exceedingly high 

public expectations. This combination will create a vastly different landscape for risk assessment 

and operational planning. Pressure to perform in this environment will be extraordinary.

One of the major areas of uncertainty surrounds the evolving needs of at-risk populations. As U.S. 

demographics change, we will have to plan to serve increasing numbers of elderly and limited and 

non-English speaking citizens; the possibility of massive numbers of pandemic victims; physically 

isolated populations (by choice, or because of some form of disaster); technology have-nots; 

migratory populations inside and outside our borders; and large numbers of homeless or destitute 

people, among others. It will be crucial to engage these communities as future challenges strain our 

community’s resources and capabilities. 

Future resource constraints are seemingly unavoidable, at least for the foreseeable future. 

Whether they are induced by an increased need for services, a reduced capability or capacity to 

deliver services, or both, we will be faced with limited funding for emergency management. These 

constraints will push service providers to find creative ways to deal with shortfalls. This underlines
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the need for innovative new surge models, new partnerships, and sustained community efforts to 

ensure interoperability of personnel, equipment, systems, and functions. 

Inevitably, in this kind of environment, individuals, families, neighborhoods, communities, and 

the private sector will likely play an increasingly active role in meeting emergency management 

needs. The public’s ability and desire to self-organize will grow, as the role of the individual, access 

to information, and technology all evolve.

Meanwhile, disparities in fiscal resources and in access to advanced technology, to know-how, 

to skilled personnel, etc. will have to be anticipated and effectively managed. Wealthier states with 

stronger infrastructure and better-educated populations will be in a more advantageous position to 

deal with disasters and emergencies than poorer ones. 

The nation will benefit from expansive thinking about these issues. Our global relationships 

contain both important challenges (e.g., supply chain risks) and opportunities (e.g., partnerships, 

force multipliers, and new approaches). Indeed, beyond U.S. experience, there is a large and 

growing body of global best practices from which we can learn and benefit.

Finally, the importance of trust – between the public and government – cannot be overstated, 

especially since belief in large institutions, including government, has been shifting to social 

networks and alternative sources of loyalty. This shift poses real challenges to emergency

management, especially in the face of changing political expectations and greater public awareness 

of government limitations. Since trust is so essential to successful outcomes in disasters and 

emergencies, we must look for opportunities to build and strengthen public trust. Frequently the 

best pathway for doing so lies in ever wider and deeper channels of public participation.

Recognizing these observations and the complexities they present, we have the opportunity to 

create roadmaps for the development of realistic capabilities, models, tools, and partnerships to

fulfill our future needs. 

The SFI Process and Report Structure 

The SFI adopted a rigorous approach to thinking about future needs for emergency management

(Appendix A documents the full extent of the SFI process). This report represents the most 

comprehensive analysis to date of the future outlook facing those in our community of practice. 

Based on the outputs of a robust and collaborative futures-planning process, the report provides a 

framework for understanding how the operating environment for emergency management is apt to 

change in the coming decades. 

This report covers key SFI findings to date:

• An examination of the forces of change shaping the emergency management world;

• An identification of vital and compelling strategic needs suggested by exploration of 

alternative emergency management scenarios; and
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• An image of future emergency management capacities and capabilities—if we are 

successful in meeting the challenges the future will present.

An initial review of current news, social science, and technology literature helped identify an 

expansive range of important trends and drivers that would shape the future operating 

environment. This foundation was followed by in-depth discussions with thought leaders on key

trends, and multiple structured stakeholder engagement sessions with many representatives of the 

emergency management community. The results of this work are described in Section II.

A singular, isolated focus on drivers, however, would not yield a complete picture of future 

emergency management conditions. The effects of drought over the next five years, for example, 

are easier to project than a more uncertain 20-year timeframe. Technological solutions, such as 

desalinization, could be the solution to droughts. Or, alternatively, the crisis could be exacerbated 

by extreme fiscal distress. Both possibilities are plausible and must be considered. 

To deal with the complexities and uncertainties inherent in any future outlook, the SFI used 

scenario planning to provide a framework for deeper exploration. Built on the driver analysis, 

scenario planning allowed the community to examine various driver cross-impacts and imagine the 

influence unknown variables could have on future operating environments. While not intended to 

be predictive of what the future holds, scenario planning offers a robust structure for thinking 

about alternative—and plausible—future operating environments. 

Section III highlights the scenarios developed for the SFI exercise to consider an expansive range of 

social, political, economic, regulatory, environmental, and technological conditions in the future. 

This section also synthesizes the results of an in-depth exploration of the strategic implications of 

the five SFI scenarios—ultimately identifying 15 strategic needs for the emergency management 

community. These strategic needs identify what the emergency management community would 

need to be successful in future environments – needs that should inform priorities, investments and 

decisions on the part of emergency managers. 

Section IV helps to illustrate how the identified strategic needs translate into practice by imagining

the emergency management community of the future in 2030—playing out a storyline of the 

community that succeeded in meeting those 15 strategic needs. Finally, Section V provides an 

outlook of the way forward, outlining ideas for SFI activities in 2012 and beyond. 

The findings in this report capture the results of an extensive community-wide effort that has 

benefited from the contributions of more than 800 professionals, academics, and interested parties 

from all layers of the public and private sector. As you read this report, consider it a framework for 

understanding how the operating environment for emergency management is apt to change over 

the next few decades. Although we have begun addressing our future needs, our progress is not 

enough. We must do more. To build a more resilient, adaptive and proactive emergency 
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management community, we must approach the future with urgency, and we must increase our 

pace of change. We hope that this report fosters the necessary conversations and ideas to do just 

that. 
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Changing Role of the Individual

Universal Access to and Use of Information Technological Innovation and Dependency

U.S. Demographics Climate Change

Global Interdependencies/ Globalization

Government Budgets

Critical Infrastructure

Evolving Terrorist Threat

Social and Technological Drivers Environmental Driver Economic and Political Drivers Primary Connections within Social/Technological or Economic/Political Drivers Interconnections across STEEP Drivers

Legend

SFI Drivers Interconnection Map

II. EXPLORING FORCES OF CHANGE 

Today’s strategic environment is defined by, among other characteristics, borderless and 

unconventional threats, global challenges, and long-term trends. In an age of increasing complexity

and uncertainty, there are many forces of change, or “drivers,” reshaping our world. To begin 

exploring what drivers could most significantly shape the future of emergency management, the SFI 

employed an analytical 

framework used commonly by 

organizations such as the U.S. 

National Intelligence Council

(NIC), to identify macro-level 

factors that have significant 

influence in the world. These 

factors fall into five dimensions –

Social, Technological, 

Environmental, Economic, and 

Political (STEEP). Changes in 

these dimensions will complicate

the future emergency

management environment, 

significantly alter how members 

of the emergency management 

community perform our jobs in 

the future, and require creative 

and collaborative thinking and 

action. 

Representatives from across the 

emergency management 

community participated in the SFI 

effort to examine a wide spectrum of forces of change, and to date have identified nine key drivers 

that are particularly influential. Research2, subject matter expertise, and rigorous scenarioplanning methods highlight that these nine drivers will individually and collectively shape the 

future in unpredictable ways, creating an increasingly complex world full of new challenges and 

opportunities. This section represents the SFI’s synthesized analysis of these nine drivers’ potential 

impacts.

 

2 The majority of the driver research in Section II comes from the SFI driver papers (links found in Appendix 

B) and is therefore not cited. Research not found in the SFI driver papers is otherwise footnoted in this 

report. 

Figure 1: SFI drivers interconnection map
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Social and Technological Drivers 

Major social and technological trends—specifically, Universal Access to and Use of Information, 

Technological Innovation and Dependency, the Changing Role of the Individual, and Shifting U.S. 

Demographics—will have profound impacts on the future. Rapid innovations in technology are 

transforming media and communication, altering how people interact with each other and relate to 

society and institutions. While emergency managers will have new capabilities in the future, the 

people who rely on their services will have different needs and expectations, requiring new 

pathways for engaging diverse communities and building greater resilience to disasters throughout 

the Nation. 

The pace of technological change—from 

biotechnology and nanotechnology to 

information and communication 

technology—is accelerating and affecting 

nearly every facet of life. Smart phones, 

high-speed internet, and “cloud” 

computing, to name only a few examples, 

are transforming how people do 

business, communicate, and carry out 

essential services such as health care. 

But the increased pervasiveness of 

technology is exposing new risks: 

dependence on computer systems to 

manage operations in multiple sectors, 

such as water, telecommunications, and 

transportation infrastructure, increases 

systemic vulnerabilities, including the 

threat of cyber-attacks.

Furthermore, technological innovation and the public’s evolving expectations of government are 

fundamentally altering how individuals interact with society—leading to a redefinition of 

community. It is increasingly clear that there are many different kinds of communities, including 

communities of place, interest, belief, and circumstance, which can exist both geographically and 

virtually. Along with the changing profile of communities, new tools empower the public to play a 

greater role in identifying “what matters” and producing content themselves. In addition, evolving 

patterns of information flow have changed the role of the media and modes of information 

exchange. The explosion of social media and personal communications technology will continue to 

increase real-time access and delivery of information. Public access to “raw” data sources, such as 

Data.gov, expands the possibilities of how existing information can be used, and increases 

expectations of government transparency. 

Figure 2. Population by Race and Ethnicity, 

Actual and Projected: 1960, 2005 and 2050
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Woodstock, Vt., September 4, 2011 -- Tropical storm Irene caved in 

many roads after dropping more than 11 inches of rain. This caused 

floods which destroyed much of Vermont's infrastructure. Photo by 

Wendell A. Davis Jr.

The U.S. population is growing, aging significantly, and becoming more ethnically diverse. These 

are transformative trends: by 2025, as immigration continues to fuel the majority of population 

growth (with foreign-born residents projected to reach historic highs of roughly 15 percent of the 

population3), nearly 1 in 5 Americans will be older than 65. Moreover, people are residing in more 

densely populated urban and coastal areas. Higher concentrations of people and assets in these 

areas (with over 200 million in “metro areas” and 87 million living along U.S. coastlines) may 

increase the Nation’s vulnerability to impacts from severe weather.

Environmental Driver 

While there are various environmental stressors that deeply affect society, such as pollution, 

ecosystem degradation and resource depletion, and diminishing fresh water supplies, Climate 

Change is the major environmental force 

confronting the emergency management

community in the United States. Climate 

change impacts are expected to increase 

the severity, frequency, or scale of 

extreme weather events, droughts, floods, 

sea-level rise, precipitation patterns, and 

the spread of life-threatening diseases. 

The most visible impacts will likely result 

from an increase in the magnitude and 

frequency of natural disasters, which will 

affect the resilience of local communities 

and the operational demands placed on 

emergency management systems. 

Climate change can affect core emergency

management mission areas and our longterm vision of reducing physical and 

economic loss from disasters in three primary ways: (1) impacts on mitigation, preparedness, 

response, and recovery operations, (2) resiliency of critical infrastructure and various emergency 

assets; and (3) triggering indirect impacts—population displacement, migration, public health risks 

among them—that increase mission risks. 

 

3

Population projections of immigrant families and foreign-born residents are provided by a 2008 Pew 

Research Center report, “U.S. population projections 2005-2050.” 

Source: http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85.pdf

Figure 3. Woodstock, VT, September 4, 2011
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Figure 4: Christchurch, New Zealand, February 25, 2011

Christchurch, New Zealand, February 25, 2011 -- Tim Manning, left, 

Deputy Administrator for Protection and National Preparedness at the 

Federal Emergency Management Agency, inspecting earthquake 

damage in Christchurch. Manning was in Christchurch attending a U.S.-

N.Z. Partnership Forum when the earthquake struck. FEMA/U.S. 

Embassy-New Zealand/Janine Burns

Economic and Political Drivers 

The environment in which we operate is 

increasingly defined by countervailing 

economic and political forces: continuing 

globalization, increasing

interdependencies in governance 

institutions and business, and limited 

economic growth in the industrialized 

world that are constraining government 

budgets and creating resource limitations. 

In this environment, as businesses and 

governments rely on interlinked global 

supply chains, critical infrastructure in 

the U.S. is deteriorating, and the global 

balance of power is shifting toward 

“emerging markets.” Compounding these 

drivers is the evolving terrorist threat: 

terrorist organizations continue to plot 

attacks while inciting and radicalizing 

small groups and individuals to target 

America, its interests, aspirations, and 

way of life. Collectively, these four key economic and political drivers—Global 

Interdependencies/Globalization, Government Budgets, Critical Infrastructure, and the Evolving 

Terrorist Threat—will have significant impacts on the future of emergency management. 

In recent decades, economic growth in developing countries has lifted millions out of poverty while 

creating new global interdependencies based on trade and commerce. Although improved living 

standards in some places may yield greater community resilience to disasters, inadequate 

institutional capacity in other places, and deepening regional ties, may result in greater demand for 

U.S. assistance in international disaster relief. Moreover, America’s reliance on an increasingly 

vulnerable global supply chain and shifting international power dynamics may also mean that 

catastrophes abroad have a greater impact domestically. The availability of technological and 

scientific knowledge has the potential to transform both terrorist and counterterrorist capabilities. 

Global terrorist organizations are adopting new tactics (e.g., cyber terrorism), while the threat of 

homegrown terrorist activity continues to grow. This is compounded by near- and medium-term 

economic forecasts that show serious budget constraints at all levels of government. Diminished 

resources, increasing health care costs, and the costs of retirement benefits will have direct and 

indirect impacts at all levels of government for years to come. In the private and public sectors, 

aging transportation, communication, energy, and health care infrastructure pose significant 

threats and are in danger of failing over the next 20 years. Collapsing bridges, bursting water 

mains, cascading brownouts from a fragile power grid, and overburdened health and medical 
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systems are all examples of this well-documented situation. Without reliable infrastructure in 

place, protection, response, and recovery operations may suffer. 

Developing a broad and comprehensive understanding of these drivers of change provides a 

foundation for knowing what the emergency management community needs to do to address 

emerging challenges or take advantage of opportunities. While these nine drivers are not the only 

potential forces of change, any one of them alone may challenge some emergency management 

policies and procedures. In combination, these and other significant developments may converge 

to trigger dramatic change, which would likely test the readiness and resilience of the emergency

management system as it exists today. 
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III. IDENTIFYING STRATEGIC NEEDS 

It is important to appreciate that while each driver can be a catalyst for change by itself, much of its 

transformative impact on how we live and work will come from intersections with other drivers. 

Scenario planning offered the SFI the opportunity to play out varying driver conditions – and driver 

cross-impacts – in alternative operating “worlds,” allowing for a range of driver effects and impacts

to be explored. This in turn allowed for the identification of strategic needs – the capabilities, tools, 

partnerships, etc. the emergency management community would need to successfully fulfill its

mission no matter how the future transpires.

The SFI used a set of five distinct scenarios that allowed the nine identified drivers in Section II to 

be fully characterized in all their complexity and uncertain future end-states. This set of scenarios 

addressed a wide variety of conditions which these drivers could present to us, both individually 

and in concert. 

As depicted in the table below, for example, in the “Bet on the Wrong Horse” scenario, the trend 

toward extreme weather has stalled, suggesting a possible end to climate change. But the U.S. has 

already invested significant resources to deal with global warming and is now suffering substantial 

economic consequences. On the other end of the climate spectrum, in a different scenario, 

“Quantum Leap,” the U.S. (and much of the world) has been hard hit by extreme weather and 

climatic conditions. Technological solutions have mitigated the worst effects, but not completely, 

and not evenly across the nation. 

Similarly, the “Treading Water” scenario presents a U.S. economy in its worst shape since the Great 

Depression. Families and communities are experiencing significant and prolonged decline in living 

standards while the U.S. has become much more isolationist. The economic situation is not quite so 

dire in the “Dude, Where’s My Sovereignty” scenario, but the nation has still not addressed longterm fiscal challenges, and the U.S. has lost its global competitiveness. In contrast, in the “Dragon 

vs. Tiger” scenario the U.S. once again boasts a relatively strong, vibrant and globally-integrated 

economy. In this scenario the U.S. has made up for many lost years of deleveraging. Instead of debt 

and jobs, as in other scenarios, the major political concerns in “Dragon vs. Tiger” surround the 

rising potential for nuclear confrontation between Asia’s two rising powers. 

The table below provides a sample of how each scenario addressed the range of drivers. 

Appendix A includes high-level narrative descriptions of each scenario world. 
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SELECT SFI SCENARIO CHARACTERISTICS 

(abbreviated list)

Scenario

Scenario 

Characteristic 

Quantum Leap Bet on the 

Wrong Horse Dragon vs Tiger Treading Water Dude, Where’s MySovereignty?

US Economy Strong, vibrant, 

dynamic

Lethargic, in and 

out of recessions

Strong rebound after 

a period of decline 

and 

Worst since Great 

Depression

Lagging peer 

competitors

Climate & 

Weather

Extreme events 

more frequent 

Stabilizing; climate 

change possibly 

reversed

Steady state trend in 

climate change

Worsening trend, 

with more 

extreme weather

More severe 

storms, droughts 

and flooding. 

Infrastructure Bleeding-edge 

modernization 

underway

Mixed; transport 

lags global trends

Highly advanced, 

with embedded IT 

and security 

Seriously 

degraded

General decline; 

pay-per-use is 

widespread

States & Localities Relatively strong, 

but with pockets of 

distress

Rural areas hit by 

population shifts 

to urban areas

Recovering after 

massive federal bailouts

Extreme fiscal 

vulnerability with 

paring of fed help

States very 

powerful but 

prospects vary

Major Threat 

Areas

Climate change 

effects, technology in 

wrong hands

Cyber-security, 

chronic fiscal 

pressures

Potential for nuclear 

conflict abroad; 

complacency 

Pandemics, 

poverty, limited 

public resources

Underfunded 

entitlements; 

foreign influence; 

weak federal

leadership

THE SFI SCENARIO WORKSHOP

In July 2011 a representative group of nearly 60 members of the emergency management 

community participated in a unique four-day scenario workshop. During this exercise, each 

participant was immersed in one of the five SFI scenarios. The job of each group was to understand 

threats, challenges, and opportunities its scenario world contained, and from this analysis draft a 

set of strategic needs that would be important for the emergency management community to 

address in that particular scenario. The strategic needs generated by all five groups were 

compared and evaluated to determine which strategic needs applied across all scenario worlds. 

The SFI Scenario Workshop yielded a set of 15 common strategic needs that applied across all five 

scenario worlds – capacities, capabilities or enabling prerequisites the community would need to be 

successful in the future, no matter how the future actually turned out. Three high-level categories 

of needs emerged in extensive post-workshop analysis: (1) Essential Capabilities the community 

will need to build or enhance in order to meet future challenges; (2) Innovative Models and Tools

emergency managers will need to optimize resources, anticipate events, or deal with complex 

and/or unprecedented problems; and (3) Dynamic Partnerships that will need to be formed or 

strengthened to meet surge requirements or to absorb critical new skills and capabilities. 

The 15 common strategic needs, organized by category, are described below.
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ESSENTIAL CAPABILITIES

Through the SFI process we have learned that blisteringly rapid change and complexity will define 

the emergency management environment over the next few decades. Even demographics, here in 

the U.S. traditionally one of the more slow-moving and predictable trends, could be subject to 

sudden and unpredictable lurches, in the face of climate change, pandemic outbreaks, refugee 

surges or some other factor not even considered today. Meanwhile, new service challenges are 

arising as government agencies – from Washington down to the smallest towns – wrestle with new 

responsibilities and extremely challenging fiscal conditions. All of this is playing out in a data-rich 

but often knowledge-poor environment, where nearly everyone is an information consumer, 

contributor, and critic. 

Not surprisingly, these dynamics will drive demand for new, augmented, or otherwise different 

emergency management capabilities. Several of the suggested capabilities highlighted during the 

July 2011 SFI scenario workshop are explained below. 

1. Develop emergency management capabilities to address dynamic and unprecedented shifts 

in local and regional population characteristics and migratory flows. Among other things, this 

could include building multi-lingual proficiencies and understanding risks associated with both 

heavily populated coastal areas and urban centers and more remote locations where new population 

centers are forming. This will require close dialogue with community leaders to better understand 

local needs, including new vulnerable populations and emergency operating challenges related to 

issues like aging infrastructure. And it will mean involving traditionally underrepresented 

populations in planning and service delivery. 

Why this need? Emergency managers will be faced with complex demographics shifts as the United 

States’ population increases, ages, and becomes more culturally and linguistically diverse. New 

challenges will arise from migrations within the U.S., possibly because of environmental issues and 

changes in regional climates. There will also be changes in the size and nature of traditionally 

underrepresented and elusive populations, including the extremely poor; the homeless; those 

volunteering to live “off the grid”; refugees from disasters; and victims of pandemics. 

2. Practice omni-directional knowledge sharing. This means employing all relevant forums, 

networks (including sensitive and classified), and technologies so that information created and 

distributed by government remains relevant to the public in complex information and media 

environments. And it will mean staying abreast of the rapidly evolving world of social networks and 

knowing how to leverage their power and influence.

Why this need? The proliferation of information from all sources (including private sector and social 

media) intensifies the need to make emergency management information and knowledge useful and 
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accessible. Advanced tools to collect, analyze and disseminate information represent potentially 

valuable new tools for emergency managers. As information flows become more widely distributed, 

the connectivity of networks will be significantly more important than any single hierarchical 

solution. And the public’s role as an information source will be vital. 

3. Infuse emergency management principles and life skills across the entire educational 

experience to empower individuals to assume more responsibility. This means continuing to 

build emergency management awareness, from K through 12, with community-tailored curricula 

shaped by the local environment. It is about communicating the importance of partnering with 

individuals and community organizations to build self-reliance and individual initiative. 

Why this need? Future operating environments may well be characterized by significant decline in 

governmental resources for emergency management. Such fiscal constraints could tempt emergency

managers to pull back from community engagement, which would widen the gap that already exists. 

Instead, it will be important to use the fiscal environment as an opportunity to reinvent and innovate. 

Schools and youth programs will be critically important channels, especially in creating awareness of 

new and unfamiliar threats such as pandemics or cyber attacks.

4. Build a shared vision for the emergency management community of the future and a culture 

that embraces forward thinking to anticipate emerging challenges and develops appropriate 

plans and contingencies. This might include building “futures” knowledge and insights into 

operational and leadership training, examining and adopting global best practices, or exploring the 

development of an emergency management academy that has a foresight component. 

Why this need? The SFI scenarios depict increasingly complex, rapidly changing worlds – even for 

economically troubled and less technologically vibrant scenarios. Since current operational strategies 

and plans may not be applicable in the future, the emergency management community will have to 

deliberately explore future issues as it prepares for the challenges that face our community.
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North Sioux City, S.D., June 12, 2011 -- These Upward Bound 

students from Rosebud and Pine Ridge, SD communities are 

filling sandbags for residents to use in an effort to prevent 

damage from along the Missouri River.

Figure 5: North Sioux City, S.D., June 12, 2011

5. Leverage volunteer capabilities across all 

emergency management phases. This need is 

about creatively incorporating volunteers into our 

operating models – and dealing with the non-trivial 

risks involved, particularly in supervision, training, 

and liability. Technology may come to play an 

important role in volunteer organization and 

training.

Why this need? Emergency management resources, 

especially personnel, are apt to be stretched in 

future operating environments marked by tight 

budgets and/or more frequent national 

emergencies. In some cases, skill gaps may become

more pronounced, and alternative staffing models 

will become important. How might we further 

incorporate volunteers into our operating models? What limitations must we understand to mitigate 

undue risk exposure? Further, even though it is already used to mobilize communities, how can we

better use technology to inform and organize volunteers? 

INNOVATIVE MODELS & TOOLS

Foresight tells us that the future will challenge us to be even more inventive in our thinking about 

the tools and solutions we will need to be successful. For one, we expect that the future operating 

environment will be characterized by more frequent emergency events, many of which will be 

simultaneous. In addition, these events are apt to have more far-reaching impacts, simply because 

the world is more complex, networked, and interdependent. Combined with aging infrastructure, 

potential supply chain risks, and technological advancements, our environment becomes even more 

difficult to navigate. Thus, we will need to employ, and in some cases develop, new and improved 

models and tools to successfully meet our critical missions. 

SFI scenario workshop participants identified tremendous opportunities in the Innovative Models 

& Tools category. Related Strategic Needs that proved effective across scenario worlds are 

explained below.

6. Adopt new risk management tools and processes in order to manage cascading 

consequences of interactions among infrastructure and all hazards. Emergency managers will 

need advanced modeling and tools to prospectively assess and manage risks related to climate, 

power, transport, telecommunications, and water, among other domains. Additionally, 
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understanding and remediating potential points of catastrophic failure will be important. And as 

populations shift we will have to plan more appropriately to provide services to the public. 

Why this need? Current risk management tools and processes already are outdated. For example, our 

risk management models are typically retrospective and do not account for climate change impacts 

we are experiencing today. If climate change is exacerbated, we will be even further behind the curve, 

our mitigation efforts will prove insufficient, and our response and recovery operations will suffer. 

The risks of aging infrastructure due to budget pressures, political and jurisdictional conflicts, and 

potential failures to initiate or sustain the long-term investments required also will challenge us in the 

future. Aging infrastructure also represents a highly interconnected form of risk, with many 

secondary and tertiary risks to populations during and following emergency situations. 

7. Employ alternative surge models to meet the challenging confluences of social, 

technological, environmental, economic, and political factors and conditions. This could include 

regional and sub-regional sharing of assets, infrastructure, and logistics capabilities. Considering new 

staffing models that include greater volunteer, private sector, non-governmental organization, and 

armed forces support also could help meet this need. 

Why this need? Acute and possibly chronic fiscal pressure could create highly challenging deficits in 

emergency management resources relative to needs, and public safety and emergency management 

practitioners could see reduced funding at all levels. Possible offsetting factors, such as technology, 

could be an important force multiplier in some situations. However, all of this suggests the need for 

new approaches and models for marshaling resources to deal with the possibility of more frequent 

and more complex emergency situations.

8. Establish flexible frameworks that optimize emergency management inter-operability

across all boundaries, because of increasing jurisdictional and technological complexities. 

These include, but are not limited to, medical professional licensures, communication and messaging, 

equipment training, and security standards. This could require comprehensive frameworks to 

remediate; engaging the public and private sectors will be important to ensure we are meeting 

differing communities’ needs. 

Why this need? The future operating environment will challenge individual emergency management 

entities to accomplish more with fewer of their own resources. This underlines the importance of 

resource-sharing arrangements across jurisdictions, especially during emergency situations. In 2011, 

doctors and nurses cannot cross state lines to help in emergencies unless a governor declares a state 

of emergency. Obstacles to many other forms of interoperability, including security, law enforcement, 

and technology, to include our hemispheric partners, will be magnified unless there is reform in this 

area.
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Greensburg, Kan., June 29, 2011 -- This 10-turbine wind farm 

supplies enough clean electricity to power all the homes, 

businesses, and municipal facilities in Greensburg. The city is 

rebuilding after an EF-5 tornado destroyed 95 percent of the 

structures. Steve Zumwalt FEMA

9. Plan and coordinate around shared interests and interdependencies to exercise the entire 

range of emergency management capabilities. This will require effective leadership, which can 

come from multiple sources, aligning strategies and operations across sectors, and using tools such as 

models, scenarios, and simulations as learning opportunities to tease out stress points and gaps and 

address them. 

Why this need? The future may challenge our community with chronic resource constraints at times 

of rising demands for emergency management services. Current regional approaches are limited. 

Planners need to be motivated and empowered to look beyond short-term concerns and narrow 

stovepipes and recognize opportunities for collaboration around shared interests.

10. Remediate hidden vulnerabilities in critical 

supplies – from water to energy to medical 

products –to offset threats to the full scope of 

emergency management activities. Having an 

understanding of supply chain vulnerabilities of all 

supplies, not just commodities, would benefit the 

emergency management community when 

considering future supply lines. Further, 

developing contingencies in anticipation of both 

global and local supply challenges is in our best 

interest. 

Why this need? Future availability of important 

emergency supplies cannot be assured. Global and 

national supply chains, some of which have 

limited capacity to begin with, may be vulnerable to infrastructure degradation, interruptions in 

foreign trade, and cyber attacks, and they are undergoing radical structural changes in warehousing 

demand signaling and logistics. Water, especially in drought-stricken areas of the country, may not be 

available in sufficient amounts to fully support emergency management missions. Climate change 

may negatively affect access to power and energy; so may man-made problems, such as foreign 

conflicts and trade embargoes. 

Figure 6: Greensburg, Kansas, June 29, 2011
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11. Influence the development of emerging technologies that advance emergency management

capabilities. This will require sustained dialogue between the emergency management and 

technology communities. We will have to help technologists understand the technological 

requirements of emergency managers so that appropriate technologies can be developed. Ensuring 

technological interoperability with our stakeholders as technology evolves will also be a critical 

consideration. 

Why this need? Technology will become a more important element in future emergency management 

mission execution, from information management to communications, to sensing, to transportation 

and logistics, and much more. In fact, there is a case to be made that technology will be even more 

important in tight budget environments. This argues not just for proactive technology adoption, but 

actually getting out ahead and influencing the development of products that have emergency

management applications.

DYNAMIC PARTNERSHIPS

Partnerships are and will continue to be critical to the future of emergency management. For this 

community, partnerships are not merely standard operating procedures – they are essential. In an 

environment of fiscal constraints and changing government roles and responsibilities, the 

partnership imperative must rise to a whole new level, involving new associations, broader and 

deeper interactions, and immense fluidity. 

It begins with individuals and communities. Working with communities to understand their needs,

and where emergency managers can empower and assist, is a shift in approach, but it is necessary. 

Further, as we look to the future, businesses will continue to serve as a core member of the 

emergency management team, and they will be crucial to successful service delivery. We also will 

need to engage our international partners, in particular Canada and Mexico, around several shared 

interests, including border security, immigration, water management, and disease surveillance. 

And our partnership with the U.S. Armed Forces as we respond to and recover from complex 

disaster situations will benefit our collective efforts. 

Strengthening (and, in some cases, building) these partnerships will be important to meeting 

longer-term strategic needs, as further explained below. 

12. Empower individuals, neighborhoods, and communities to play a greater role throughout 

all phases of disasters. We know that regardless of the situation, the public will be involved, as first 

responders, as eyewitnesses, providing updates, serving as information nodes, or relaying critical 

information to authorities. Engagement with communities offers an opportunity to partner with 

individuals and organizations in life-saving and life-sustaining actions to strengthen their role in 

emergency management. The question is whether the emergency management community will 
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Providence, R.I., April 23, 2010 -- This advertising space, now 

being used for the FEMA phone number and web site, was 

donated on four digital billboards in Rhode Island to run PSAs 

on FEMA registration information. This is the digital sign along 

Route 10 in Cranston. Photo: Michael Rieger/FEMA

succeed in building a constructive relationship with the public to empower them as a full partner in 

realizing mission success. 

Why this need? There are real shifts underway in how people are processing information and how 

and where they will produce and consume it in the future. Additionally, there are corresponding

shifts in the nature of trust, with public trust placed less in large organizations and increasingly in social 

networks. Along with these changes, the SFI scenarios depict a range of U.S. economic futures with 

spending constraints – especially over the next decade – as a repeated theme. Inevitably this will 

mean changes in how government services are delivered before, during, and after an emergency or 

disaster event. Understanding how to empower communities and individuals in new and different 

ways holds a critical key to enhancing our ability to achieve successful emergency management 

outcomes in the future; it also challenges our current public engagement approaches and 

expectations. 

13. Proactively engage business in all 

emergency management phases and solicit its 

contribution to policy development, in light of

the critical nature of private sector 

capabilities. We already engage the private 

sector in much of what we do. Moving forward, 

promoting further collaboration, cooperation, and 

appropriately close relationships between the 

private sector and the emergency management 

community will be vital. We will have to consider 

what legal and regulatory frameworks we will 

need in order to avoid conflicts of interest, since 

furthering our partnership with the private sector 

is a necessary element of serving the public in the 

future. 

Why this need? The private sector meets the public’s needs every day. With close to 90% of the labor 

force and tremendous specialized capabilities, the private sector is a key partner before, during, and 

after disasters. This partnership will become increasingly important in the future. Working in 

concert with the private sector, rather than competing with it, the public sector has an opportunity to 

further enable private sector resources and capabilities to assist in recovery efforts and resiliencebuilding throughout communities. Engaging the private sector in policy development is also 

important so that the private sector has the appropriate frameworks in place to work effectively and 

cooperatively with the public sector to address issues of mutual concern. 

Figure 7: Providence, R.I., April 23, 2010
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14. Intensify disaster-response collaboration and planning with Canada and Mexico, 

recognizing scope for both national and local actions. Sharing critical emergency management 

information is a start to building collaborative cross-border relationships. As we do this, engaging the 

State Department and other authorities to ensure we have the appropriate agreements and 

frameworks in place will be important in the effort to intensify these relationships. 

Why this need? Emergencies and disasters do not respect national boundaries. A number of the SFI 

scenarios anticipated the need for significantly closer U.S. collaboration with Canada and Mexico 

around several shared emergency management interest areas, including immigration, border 

security, drought and water management, disease surveillance, trade and commerce, and critical 

infrastructure. The scenarios made a strong case for anticipatory action to ensure the highest levels 

of cooperation are in place before actual emergencies or disasters occur.

15. Foster increased collaboration to ensure appropriate use of the military to provide 

specialized capabilities or to augment capacity in complex, overwhelming disaster incidents. 

This includes building on ties that already exist with respect to existing state and National Guard 

relationships. Strengthening dialogue between the military and local communities to coordinate 

resources and to foster trust and understanding will also be important. This is not uncharted 

territory, per se, but a new era of closer collaboration will be necessary. 

Why this need? The SFI scenario discussions covered a range of complex emergency situations 

including weapons of mass destruction (WMDs), cyber attacks, and the potential need for 

quarantining pandemic victims showing up on U.S. shores. Responding to such threats will require 

scale, as well as specialized skills, some of which are within the purview of U.S. armed forces. If the 

U.S. reduces its global military footprint, the armed forces may be more available for domestic 

missions, including emergency management.

The strategic needs developed during the SFI scenario workshop process provide specifics into what 

we, as a community, should focus on in the coming decades to operate successfully in an evolving 

environment. These needs, like the drivers, are open to interpretation beyond the scenario 

workshop, and are not the exclusive set of needs we will have moving forward. However, they do 

provide a path we can follow as we begin to develop actions to meet all of our future needs. 

Envisioning the emergency management enterprise of the future, as we do in Section IV, will help

bring life to the strategic needs and what we might do now to begin meeting them. 
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IV. A FUTURE GLIMPSE INTO EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 

The foresight process the SFI used systematically explored a range of plausible future scenarios and 

developed a set of common strategic needs that remain relevant no matter how the future unfolds. 

If one assumes for the moment that the emergency management community meets these needs, the 

future emergency management environment will look very different indeed. This section provides 

a glimpse of what the emergency management enterprise of 2030 might look like and how it might 

be mobilized to meet the identified strategic needs – essential capabilities it has developed, 

innovative models and tools it uses, and dynamic relationships and partnerships it has formed. 

ESSENTIAL CAPABILITIES IN 2030

Emergency management professionals adopt emerging information and media channels to ensure 

an appropriate presence on new social media outlets. The emergency management community 

continuously pulls information from appropriate social networks, especially local discussions, and 

local internet news sources (e.g., Patch.com circa 2011) while simultaneously using these networks 

to push news and information out prior to and during disasters and emergencies. Emergency

managers have access to private sector data and sensor networks relevant to their missions. They 

can locate, for example, remote populations that otherwise might not be identified. There are 

strong “need to share” protocols and memoranda of understanding (MOA) with all levels of 

government, especially federal authorities, and across national boundaries.

Volunteers serve in both operational and support emergency management roles. Databases contain 

pre-approved rosters of volunteer emergency management personnel with skills/qualifications. 

There is a de facto “professionalization” of volunteer corps with opportunities for advanced 

training, certification, and granting of appropriate authorities (medical, law enforcement, etc.). The 

emergency management community is leveraging the surge in baby boom retirement by creating 

meaningful volunteer opportunities, including important support roles (e.g., legal, communications, 

advocacy). For short-term response situations, the emergency management community is capable 

of providing quick and effective on-site/on-the-job training. 

The education community has embraced emergency management as a focus of elementary and 

secondary education, similar to efforts in the last half of the 20th century around fire safety and 

prevention, personal safety, and safe driving. Elementary school children practice hands-on 

emergency management exercises. By high school graduation, each student can accurately identify 

numerous potential emergency situations and appropriate responses. Special training packages 

exist for each geographic region, focusing on major local threats such as tornadoes, hurricanes, 

floods, earthquakes, and forest fires. 
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INNOVATIVE MODELS AND TOOLS IN 2030

A spirit of practical cooperation pervades emergency management leadership. States and 

municipalities have significantly fewer exclusive resources; emergency management people and 

assets are shared across borders to an unprecedented degree – and this includes some 

international jurisdictions (i.e., Canada and Mexico). This leads to well-defined, clear cross-border 

activity procedures and protocols, so that there is no question about access at the time of an 

emergency. There are new models for conducting emergency surge operations that take into 

account that there are far fewer redundancies in the nation’s total national response and recovery 

assets. Credentials/qualifications of emergency management personnel are accepted across the U.S.

(or at least within designated regions); personnel are more mobile. 

The emergency management community has improved technological capabilities. Among them are 

risk-management and risk assessment tools that account for dynamic changes in hazard risks, such 

as climate change on flooding levels, and that anticipate interrelated and cascading effects of 

simultaneous multiple disasters and/or complex events. Emergency management planners take 

seriously a range of plausible multiple-event “scenarios,” and they model the consequences of 

failure in one key infrastructure area for other key sectors (e.g., transportation, electricity, 

telecommunications, water, emergency services). As a result, vulnerable nodes are identified and 

rectified prior to an emergency or a disaster. An important feature of this is continual and 

sophisticated environmental scanning to understand the consequences of new and unfamiliar risks. 

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) and robots provide powerful search and rescue capabilities. 

Pandemic sensors offer early warning of disease outbreaks. The emergency management 

community enjoys collaborative relationships with the technology community and even influences 

the development of emergency management applications. To make all this possible, coordination 

among emergency managers and a common set of standards to maximize interoperability and asset 

sharing has been incorporated into normal operations. 

DYNAMIC PARTNERSHIPS IN 2030

Individuals and community institutions are further empowered and routinely contribute to 

emergency management. Local collective action is widespread as individuals and organizations 

(both formal and informal) assist in service delivery, survivor care, and community rebuilding 

efforts. Emergency management programs connect to communities through the social, economic, 

and political structures that are part of daily life. Public service announcements and communitybased organizations articulate and continually reinforce what households should do across an 

appropriately wide range of short- and long-term situations, including natural disasters, WMD, 

terror events, disease outbreaks, and prolonged droughts and other environmental disasters. 
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The emergency management community shares information with and gathers information from 

multiple media. In some cases, the emergency management community provides multilingual 

outreach to community groups and fraternal and faith-based organizations. In other cases, 

emergency managers and volunteers attend virtual neighborhood meetings as participants to learn 

what communities are doing. The emergency management community is active in social networks 

both as a producer and consumer of information. 

The private sector contribution to emergency management has greatly expanded. Business leaders 

contribute actively to policy and planning activities, and participate in important emergency

management boards and task forces. Emergency managers tap into private sector sensor nets (e.g., 

closed-circuit television cameras, and environmental and health sensors). Accomplished business 

professionals with emergency management-relevant skills (logistics, technology management, etc.) 

share their knowledge through special emergency management fellowships. Private sector 

volunteers are organized and trained to help during emergencies. To avoid legal and ethical 

problems, guidelines for private sector involvement in emergency management are well-defined, 

thus incentivizing expanded business roles and new forms of public-private cooperation. This 

includes small business at local community levels, as well as large, national enterprises.

Additionally, response models now reflect expanded use of National Guard (or state-sanctioned) 

forces and access to their facilities, equipment and technical skill sets. The availability of National 

Guard resources is more reliable as the U.S. reduces or is less expansive in its foreign military 

commitments. Emergency management personnel are trained to use military assets that are 

appropriate for emergency situations. Likewise, military personnel participate in routine 

emergency training exercises. 
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V. THE WAY FORWARD

The findings from the SFI process to date are as diverse as the communities that the SFI represents. 

The SFI cannot – nor did it ever intend to – provide detailed roadmaps for action. Each constituent 

community may decide what, from this large (and expanding) body of knowledge, is applicable to 

their region or community and what could be explored and acted upon. The strategic needs are 

useful catalysts for discerning priority areas for action, even if the first step on any single strategic 

need is a meaningful conversation with concerned stakeholders on how best to move forward on 

specific initiatives. 

To meet its potential, the SFI must both actively engage new issues that will shape or affect 

emergency management, and expand participation in SFI research, dialogues, workshops, and other 

forums. Remaining alert to innovative new ideas and practices, and bringing foresight into the

mainstream in our field, would greatly benefit the emergency management community. 

A key part of the SFI mission is to advance a culture of “futures thinking” within the emergency 

management community that produces tangible benefits for the community. By revisiting and 

refining our collective understanding of the future and our needs, and through building a shared 

sense of direction and urgency to meet those needs, we set ourselves on a dynamic path. The SFI 

will continue to engage the emergency management community and those it serves, both in-person 

and virtually, to continue research on important trends and drivers, and to explore policy and 

planning options and implications. 

Since early 2010 the SFI work has uncovered insights that challenge, refine, and in many cases 

validate current discussions occurring throughout the emergency management community. 

Fortunately, some have already begun taking actions to meet the needs of future environments, and 

a broad cross-section of the emergency management community has been engaged to raise 

awareness and understanding of what the future could hold. However, we can and must do more 

today in order to set a positive trajectory for our community in meeting future needs. While the 

exact future form of the SFI will evolve over time, it will involve several key components including:

Refreshing and expanding the research to explore new and compelling questions and 

ideas;

Developing useful products to distribute throughout the community (e.g., reports and 

trend analyses); 

Aligning strategies and planning selected actions to meet future needs; and 

Continuing to engage stakeholders to broaden the SFI community and build on existing 

collaboration. 
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The SFI is a work in progress and not intended to serve as the final word on what the future will 

hold, what we will face, or how to approach pending changes. The process has, however, provided 

an opportunity to engage the broad emergency management community and ask: “Is what we are 

doing now sufficient to meet our future needs?” and “How might we change our approaches and 

mindsets?” Additionally, the SFI process highlights the need to expand this discussion further, 

throughout the whole emergency management community – beyond disciplines and across sectors 

– to enable the collaboration that produces effective emergency management outcomes today and 

in the future. 

To get involved in the SFI, send an email to FEMA-OPPA-SFI@fema.gov and request to be included 

in the SFI Community. You will receive access to updated newsletters and SFI events. You also will 

be informed about new materials and blog postings and are invited to respond and engage in the 

discussion. 

Visit our Web site to learn about the SFI, read the driver research papers, and see our blog section if 

you are interested in commenting on our work -

http://www.fema.gov/about/programs/oppa/strategic_foresight_initiative.shtm
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APPENDIX A–THE SFI PROCESS

The SFI Process consists of three primary steps: Environmental Scanning, Scenario Planning, and 

Advancing and Sustaining Foresight. The diagram below depicts the corresponding activities for 

each step. 

Environmental Scanning

Initial Research

The process began in December 2009 when the SFI engaged emergency management community 

stakeholders to fashion a research agenda of factors that will drive and shape the future 

environment. The SFI team began this initial research and literature analysis by reviewing several 

future methodologies and literature on broad topic areas that could shape the future. These areas 

included sociology and demographics, politics, technology, climate change, economics, security and 

terrorism. 

The literature review included the following:

“Global Trends 2025” – the National Intelligence Council

“Project Horizon” – Various US Government Agencies

“Project Evergreen” – US Coast Guard

“Energy Scenarios to 2050” – Shell Oil Company

“Forces That Will Shape America’s Future” – Government Accountability Office

“15 Global Challenges” – The Millennium Project

“ Joint Operating Environment” – US Joint Forces Command

“QHSR “Security Environment” – Department of Homeland Security

National Intelligence Strategy “Strategic Environment” – Office of the Director of 

National Intelligence

“Global Strategic Assessment 2009” – Institute for National Strategic Studies

IDENTIFY

DRAFT

DRIVERS

Accelerator/

Derailer

Workshops

Expert

Outreach

Topical

Webinars/

Concalls

Initial

Research

Scoping 

Workshop DRIVERS DEFINED

ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING SCENARIO PLANNING ADVANCING & SUSTAINING FORESIGHT

SFI

Scenario

Workshop

ID

Strategic

Needs

Evaluate

Existing

Scenarios

Customize

Scenarios STRATEGIC NEEDS DEFINED

Align

Strategies

Expand and

Share

Research

Engage

Stakeholders
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To gain additional insights and opinions on these topic areas, the SFI team conducted individual 

and group discussions with subject matter experts to substantiate the initial research and to 

broaden the SFI’s focus. The SFI team’s research, review and consultation on the issues identified 

as shaping the future led to a clearer understanding of the stakeholders the SFI would need to 

engage. These stakeholders are considered to be the “Emergency Management Community.” This 

community includes, but is not limited to, the following: traditional state, local, federal, and tribal 

emergency managers; those in public security, public health, and public safety agencies; first 

responders; public works; business partners; non-governmental organizations (NGOs); federal 

agencies with equities in emergency management; and academicians who have studied or 

published on the topic of emergency management. 

Scoping Workshop

Based on the initial research and literature review, in April 2010 the SFI team held a Scoping 

Workshop in Washington, DC to identify, define, and refine key issues and drivers that may affect 

the future of emergency management. To obtain a wide cross-section of perspectives and expertise, 

workshop participants included 30 persons encompassing the spectrum of the Emergency 

Management Community. The efforts of this workshop led to the identification of nine drivers 

likely to shape change and significantly affect the field of emergency management over the next 

fifteen to twenty years. 

The nine drivers identified at the Scoping Workshop are detailed in Appendix B.

Outreach, Workshops, Webinars

Through outreach and engagement efforts, the SFI team built an SFI community of nearly 800 

individuals. The nine drivers became the focus of the community’s work. Dialogue on the drivers 

was conducted through conference calls, webinars, additional workshops, and an online discussion. 

These discussions created greater understanding of how the drivers might evolve and interact to 

shape the future environment. 

2010 – 2011 Workshops 

The workshops either attended or hosted by the SFI to further inform SFI research and outreach 

efforts include:

Inter-Agency Board (IAB) – Strategic Planning Sub-Group (October 2010; 

February 2011; May 2011): The IAB is a voluntary collaborative panel of emergency 

preparedness and response practitioners from a wide array of professional disciplines 

that represent all levels of government and the voluntary sector. The SFI team first 

engaged the IAB Strategic Planning Sub-Group (SPSG) in October 2010 to provide a 

project overview. In ensuing meetings held in February 2011 and May 2011, the SFI 

team provided project updates and sought insights used to customize scenarios for the 

SFI Scenario Workshop held in July 2011. 
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National Defense University, Washington, DC (February 15, 2011): FEMA, in 

conjunction with the National Defense University, convened 13 subject matter experts 

for a full-day workshop to discuss trends that are shaping how individuals relate to 

society. The experts included government officials, first responders, and academics. 

They provided their perspectives about the trends affecting individuals, research about 

changes in our society, and actions to consider in response to those changes. 

Young Professionals Workshops, Washington, DC (February 22 & 28, 2011): To 

obtain input to the SFI from a broader age range of individuals, the SFI team held two 

workshops to gain insights from young professionals. Approximately 25 persons, 

mainly working in the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and FEMA, participated 

in the workshops. Information gathered from these workshops informed the 

customization of scenarios for the SFI Scenario Workshop. 

FOCUS Symposium, Brussels, Belgium (May 2011): The Center for European Security 

Studies invited the SFI team to give a presentation at its FOCUS Symposium. Through 

the FOCUS Project, the European Union (EU) seeks input from stakeholders from within 

and beyond the EU on the employment of foresight as a tool to address EU security 

needs and challenges. The SFI team provided an overview of SFI and explained how 

engaging in foresight to understand trends can prepare us to get ahead of those trends 

before they become “strategic surprises.”

Actionable Foresight Work Program, National Defense University, Washington, DC 

(May – July 2011): Team members attended a series of workshops at NDU on 

Actionable Foresight and Anticipatory Governance hosted by The Project on Forward 

Engagement. At these events, representatives from government and academia met to 

discuss proposals to institutionalize foresight in governance in order to detect trends 

that may affect our society. Governments could then use that knowledge to create 

policies to address challenges. 

Driver Research Papers Fiscal Year 2010 - 2011

The SFI team combined information gleaned from outreach activities with additional research on 

the drivers and created research papers on each of the nine driver topics. To ensure maximum 

dissemination and spur additional discussion, the papers were posted on the SFI Website and the 

FEMA Blog where they can be viewed and downloaded by both specialists and the public at large. 

The driver paper synopses and Web links are located in Appendix B of this report. 
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Scenario Planning

Scenario planning is used by both government and the private sector to investigate possible futures 

and to integrate appropriate actions into strategic and operational planning. The SFI used scenario 

planning to help participants extend their analytical understanding of the future and to assist them 

in examining a range of plausible future operating conditions. This examination helped to guide 

relevant policy and actions for the participants. The US Coast Guard has engaged in scenario 

planning since 1998 and made available its newly developed Project Evergreen scenarios as a 

resource for the SFI. The SFI used these scenarios as a baseline, integrated them with the 18 months 

of research and community input, and produced five SFI-relevant scenarios or “worlds” that more 

closely mirror the drivers and uncertainties of the future operating environment. These scenarios 

were used in the first SFI Scenario Workshop in July 2011.

SFI Scenario Workshop, Washington, DC (July 2011)

The purpose of this workshop was to explore confluences of the nine drivers among the five 

plausible future worlds and use them to determine what the future may hold and how we can 

prepare to meet future challenges. The SFI workshop scenarios were detailed, systematically 

developed descriptions of operating environments that emergency management might face over 

the next fifteen to twenty years. Each participant was assigned to one of the five worlds. The nearly 

60 workshop participants were instructed to use their judgment and expertise to address 

emergency management needs and concerns in the world to which they were assigned. Their 

efforts ultimately resulted in the identification of 15 stress-tested strategic needs divided into three 

categories: (1) Essential Capabilities the community will need to build or enhance; (2) Innovative 

Models and Tools emergency managers will need to create or utilize; and (3) Dynamic Partnerships 

that will need to be formed or strengthened. 
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SFI Scenario Worlds Synopses

In Bet on the Wrong Horse, a decade-long cycle of extreme weather prompted widespread 

acceptance that anthropogenic (human-caused) dramatic climate changes were occurring. 

New data suggests the previous climate-warming trend has in fact stopped. Expected coastal 

erosion and rapid sea-level rise has not come to pass. After massive investment in renewable 

energy sources and climate engineering, many speculate as to whether the U.S. has bet on 

the wrong horse. Although this bet has led to improvements in pollution and spurred 

research and development, the U.S. economy is bobbing in and out of recessions. 

In Dragon vs. Tiger, the U.S. is a good place to live and work. Every day the media focuses on 

the continuing tensions between China and India, which, although troubling, has not yet 

erupted into open conflict. The U.S. has certainly benefitted - the U.S. economy has 

rebounded and is moderately strong, we are once again the global leader in technology and 

attracting business. But lurking beneath what is in many respects a positive world for the U.S. 

is the risk of complacency.

In Dude, Where’s My Sovereignty the U.S. is a gloomy place. An endless series of 

incompetent and uncompromising governments failed to arrive at anything comprehensive to 

fund the Baby Boom retirements and maintain fiscal sanity. Our global influence has waned, 

and because the federal government is seen as ineffectual and underfunded, states do many 

things that used to be strictly federal responsibility. All are worse off than they were a few 

decades ago. Globally, international business elites and a few countries exert influence to 

avoid seemingly inevitable resource-extraction anarchy in the global commons. 

In Quantum Leap, the U.S. is enjoying a renaissance. A technological revolution fostered by 

aggressive public-private investment has given the U.S. bleeding-edge advantages in 

computing, nanotechnology, smart materials, and robotics. But it’s not all upside. The world 

struggles with the increasingly destructive effects of global climate change. Oil-producing 

economies will soon be on the brink of collapse, a globally networked “elite” appears to enjoy 

superior political and economic advantages, and cybercrime and intellectual property theft 

are rampant. No one knows where this brave new cyber world will lead, but for now 

Americans are enjoying the best economy since the 1990s. 

In Treading Water the U.S. is very much a changed country as it deals with long-term 

stagnation bordering on depression. Unemployment is chronically high, and meaningful 

recovery does not appear imminent. It is a time of self-reliance and community focus. The 

nation has grown notably more insulated and pragmatic in global affairs, yet relations with 

Mexico and Canada have never been more important. A series of deadly pandemics has 

swept the globe and reinforced rising protectionist and isolationist sentiments. Military 

spending in the U.S. has been scaled back. U.S. homeland security roles have been 

increasingly redefined around disease management, border security and emergency 

response. Environmental regulations have been mostly shelved, in this austere national 

setting.
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Advancing and Sustaining Strategic Foresight

The hope is the emergency management community will employ the 15 strategic needs to inform 

how we move forward as a community. Since April 2010, the SFI has focused on understanding 

who or what could shape the future of emergency management, and on identifying our strategic 

needs as we face this complex and uncertain future. While the exact future form of the SFI will 

evolve, it will involve several key components, including:

Refreshing and expanding the research to explore new and compelling questions 

and ideas;

Developing useful products to distribute throughout the community (e.g., reports 

and trend analyses); 

Aligning strategies and planning selected actions to meet future needs; and 

Continuing to engage stakeholders to broaden the SFI community and build on 

existing collaboration. 

To help accomplish the bulleted activities listed above, the SFI team has reached out to members of 

the emergency management community since the July 2011 SFI Scenario workshop. We are 

engaging the community to “socialize” the SFI findings, gather feedback and reactions, identify 

questions and issues to examine in future research, and explore ways to utilize current work. Prior 

to publication of this report, the team shared SFI findings with the following groups at conferences 

and workshops they have hosted: 

Local, State, Tribal, and Federal Preparedness Task Force (September 2011)

The National Advisory Council (September 2011)

National Association of Emergency Managers (October 2011)

Inter-Agency Board (November 2011)

International Association of Emergency Managers (November 2011)

George Washington University Homeland Security Policy Institute (December 2011)
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APPENDIX B–SFI DRIVERS

The SFI team combined information gleaned from outreach activities with additional research on 

the drivers and created research papers on each of the nine driver topics. To ensure maximum 

dissemination and spur additional discussion, the papers were posted on the SFI website and the 

FEMA Blog where they could be viewed and downloaded by both specialists and the public at large. 

Direct links to each of the driver papers are listed below each driver description:

Social and Technological Drivers:

Technological Innovation and Dependency. The pace of growth of new technologies—from 

biotechnology and nanotechnology to information and communication technology—is 

accelerating, and affecting nearly every facet of life. Smartphones, high-speed Internet, and 

“cloud” computing, to name only a few examples, are transforming business, how people 

communicate, and essential services such as health care. Conversely, the ubiquity of 

technology is exposing new risks: dependence on computer systems to manage operations 

in multiple sectors, such as water, telecommunications, and transportation infrastructure, 

increases vulnerabilities, including the threat of cyber attacks. 

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/technology_dev_%20paper.pdf

Changing Role of the Individual. Technological innovation and the public’s evolving 

expectations of government could lead to a redefinition of community beyond geography 

and nationality, fundamentally changing how individuals interact with society. New tools 

have empowered the public to play a greater role in identifying “what matters” (e.g., by 

broadcasting news stories through their networks) and producing content themselves (e.g., 

eyewitness videos captured on cell phones). Social networks, rather than traditional 

institutions or experts, are becoming more trusted and influential in peoples’ daily lives.

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/changing_role_individual.pdf

Universal Access to and Use of Information. Evolving patterns of information flow have 

changed the role of the media and modes of information exchange. The explosion of social 

media and personal communications technology will continue to increase real-time access 

and delivery of information. Public access to “raw” data sources, such as Data.gov, expands

the possibilities of how existing information can be used, and increases expectations of

government transparency. The volume of available information, however, is creating a 

“data deluge” and making it difficult for individuals to filter and know what is important. 

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/universal_access_paper_051011.pdf

U.S. Demographics Shifts. The U.S. population is growing, aging significantly and becoming 

more ethnically diverse. These are transformative trends: by 2025, as immigration 

continues to fuel the majority of population growth, nearly 1 in 5 Americans will be older 
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than 65. People are residing in more densely populated urban and coastal areas, which may 

be more vulnerable to impacts from severe weather. These trends will create new medical, 

cultural, and linguistic challenges that affect critical planning, response, and recovery 

functions across the fields of emergency management.

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/demography_%20paper_051011.pdf

Environmental Driver:

Climate Change. Per the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) study on the 

implications of climate change in the United States: coastal areas will be at risk due to rising 

sea levels and more intense storms; domestic and global water resources will be stressed; 

there will be new threats to human health; and wild land fire threats will increase and shift 

to previously unaffected areas. Aging critical infrastructure and increased urban 

populations could exacerbate climate change challenges, while mass migration due to

climate issues, increased conflict, and shifts in disease patterns are potential international 

effects of climate change.

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/climate_change_paper.pdf

Economic and Political Drivers:

Global Interdependencies / Globalization. In recent decades, globalization has improved 

international socioeconomic conditions while creating new global interdependencies that 

will influence emergency management. While improved living standards may yield greater 

community resilience to disasters, inadequate institutional capacity and deepening regional 

ties may result in greater demand for U.S. assistance in international disaster relief. 

Moreover, America’s reliance on an increasingly vulnerable global supply chain and shifting 

international power dynamics may also mean that catastrophes abroad have a greater 

impact domestically.

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/global_interdependencies.pdf

Government Budgets. Near- and medium-term forecasts show serious constraints for state, 

local, and federal budgets. Even over the long term, state and municipal budgets are 

projected to require significant realignment to better contain costs/spending and increase 

revenues. Diminished resources, increasing health care costs, and the costs of retirement 

benefits will likely impact emergency managers directly and indirectly at all levels of 

government for years to come, raising questions about the role of federal, state, local, and 

tribal entities in emergency management. 

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/government_budgets_paper.pdf

Critical Infrastructure. Aging transportation, communication, energy and health care 

infrastructure pose significant threats and are in danger of failing over the next 15-20 years. 

Collapsing bridges, bursting water mains, cascading brownouts from a fragile power grid, 
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and overburdened health and medical systems are all examples of this well documented 

situation. Without reliable infrastructure in place, protection, response, and recovery 

operations may suffer. 

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/critical_infrastructure_paper.pdf

Evolving Terrorist Threat. The availability of technological and scientific knowledge has the 

potential to transform both terrorist and counterterrorist capabilities. The rapidly evolving 

information environment, meanwhile, continues to create avenues for individuals and small 

groups to seek out and associate with extremists. Global terrorist organizations are 

adopting new tactics (e.g., cyber terrorism), while the threat of homegrown terrorist 

activity continues to grow. The changing dynamics of national and international security 

will affect the Nation’s safety, prosperity, and resilience. 

http://www.fema.gov/pdf/about/programs/oppa/evolving_terrorist_threat.pdf
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APPENDIX C – SFI PARTICIPATING ORGANIZATIONS

The organizations listed below were represented during at least one SFI workshop conducted from 

March 2010-September 2011 and/or during individual interviews that explored the impacts and 

implications of the nine identified drivers on the emergency management community. This is not 

an exhaustive list of all individuals and organizations that have participated in SFI to date. 

American Public Works Association

Arizona State University 

Arlington County (VA) Office of Emergency 

Management

Arlington County Virginia

Association of State and Territorial Health 

Officials

Bellevue, WA Fire Department

Big City Emergency Managers, Inc. 

Brandon University – Canada

Buncombe County (NC) Health Department

Business Executives for National Security 

California Polytechnic State University

Center for European Union Security Studies

Center for National Policy

Center for Strategic and International Studies

Community and Regional Resilience Institute

Cunningham (CO) Fire Protection District

Disaster Research Center 

Disaster Resilience Leadership Academy, 

Tulane University

Disasters Roundtable, The National 

Academies

District of Columbia Homeland Security and 

Emergency Management Agency

Elmira College

Emergency Management Academy of New 

Zealand

Emergency Management Magazine

Exponent

Federal Bureau of Investigation

Federal Emergency Management Agency 

Frederick County (MD) Division of 

Emergency Management

Frederick County (MD) Sheriff's Office

George Mason University Center for 

Transportation and Economic Development

George Washington University

Georgetown University 

Gloucester County (NJ) Office of Emergency 

Management

Homeland Security Institute

Howard County Maryland

Incident

Indiana Department of Homeland Security 

Inter-Agency Board

International Association of Chiefs of Police 

International Association of Emergency 

Managers

Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency 

Management Division 

Islamic Relief USA

Jacksonville State University

Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency 

Management

Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department 

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Massachusetts Institute of Technology 

Methodist University

National Academies of Science

National Association of City and County 

Health Officials 

National Association of Counties

National Association of Development 

Organizations

National Association of Home Builders

National Baptist Convention, USA Inc.

National Conference of State Legislatures

National Defense University 

National Disability Rights Network

National Disaster Management Institute, 

Korea

National Emergency Management Association

National Governors Association

National Guard Bureau

National Intelligence Council 

National League of Cities

National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration 
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National Science Foundation

National Sheriffs’ Association

New York City Fire Dept

Newton Emergency Management

North Dakota State University

Oregon Emergency Management Agency

Pennsylvania Emergency Management 

Agency 

Pennsylvania State University

Pennsylvania State University – Harrisburg 

Pew Research Center

Prospect Heights (IL) Fire Protection District

Pueblo of Tesuque Tribe

State of Wisconsin, Department of Military 

Affairs

STG International

Target Corporation

The Brookings Institution

The Jewish Federations of North America

The National Advisory Council 

U. S. Capitol Police

U. S. Census Bureau

U.S. Conference of Mayors

U.S. Department of Defense 

U.S. Department of Health and Human 

Services

U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

U.S. Department of Transportation

United State Coast Guard

United States Air Force

University of Colorado – Boulder 

University of Delaware

University of Houston 

University of Maryland Baltimore County

University of Maryland University College

University of North Carolina at Pembroke 

University of Oklahoma

University of Richmond

University of South Florida 

Witt & Associates