10-i

CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1

10.1.1 Alternative Scenarios..................................................................................................... 10-1

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENCIES FOR BASE AND STANDARDS CASES .............. 10-2

10.2.1 Method and Assumptions .............................................................................................. 10-2

10.2.1.1 Base Case Efficiencies................................................................................. 10-2

10.2.1.2 Standards Case Efficiencies......................................................................... 10-4

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ............................................................................. 10-12

10.3.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................... 10-12

10.3.2 Inputs............................................................................................................................ 10-13

10.3.2.1 Shipments................................................................................................... 10-13

10.3.2.2 Equipment Stock........................................................................................ 10-14

10.3.2.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ...................................................... 10-14

10.3.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption...................................................... 10-16

10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors............................................................ 10-16

10.3.2.6 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Factors................................................................. 10-17

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................................. 10-17

10.4.1 Definition ..................................................................................................................... 10-17

10.4.2 Inputs............................................................................................................................ 10-19

10.4.2.1 Average Annual Installed Price ................................................................. 10-19

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit................................................... 10-21

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Product Cost..................................................... 10-21

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost ................................................... 10-22

10.4.2.5 Discount Factor.......................................................................................... 10-22

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs............................................................................... 10-23

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings........................................................................... 10-23

10.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS......................................................................................... 10-23

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs....................................................................................................... 10-23

10.5.2 Annual Costs and Savings ........................................................................................... 10-24

10.6 NES AND NPV RESULTS BY ENERGY EFFICIENCY LEVEL ........................... 10-25

10.6.1 National Energy Savings Results by Energy Efficiency Level ................................... 10-25

10.6.2 Consumer Net Present Value Results by Energy Efficiency Level............................. 10-27

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Cooled Cabinets........................ 10-2

Table 10.2.2 Base Case Efficiency Level Distribution for Non-Compressor 

Refrigerators ...................................................................................................... 10-3

Table 10.2.3 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Ice Makers................................. 10-3

Table 10.2.4 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Hybrid Refrigeration 

Products.............................................................................................................. 10-4

Table 10.2.5 Cooled Cabinets: Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases........................ 10-5
10-ii

Table 10.2.6 Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinets (CC-1): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases ................................................................................................. 10-6

Table 10.2.7 Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinets (CC-2): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases ................................................................................................. 10-7

Table 10.2.8 Non-Compressor Refrigerators (NCR): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases ................................................................................................. 10-7

Table 10.2.9 Thermoelectric Refrigerators (NCR-1): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases ................................................................................................. 10-8

Table 10.2.10 Absorption Refrigeration Products (NCR-2): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases ................................................................................................. 10-8

Table 10.2.11 Portable Ice Makers (IM-P): Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases...... 10-9

Table 10.2.12 Non-Portable Ice Makers, Cooled-Storage (IM-C): Efficiency 

Distributions for Standards Cases...................................................................... 10-9

Table 10.2.13 Non-Portable Ice Makers, Uncooled-Storage (IM-U): Efficiency 

Distributions for Standards Cases.................................................................... 10-10

Table 10.2.14 Standard-Size Built-In Hybrid All-Refrigerator (H-3A-BI): Efficiency 

Distributions for Standards Cases.................................................................... 10-10

Table 10.2.15 Compact Hybrid All-Refrigerator with Manual Defrost (H-11A): 

Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases.................................................. 10-11

Table 10.2.16 Compact Hybrid All-Refrigerator with Automatic Defrost (H-13A): 

Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases.................................................. 10-11

Table 10.2.17 Standard-Size Built-In Hybrid Freezer (H-9I-BI): Efficiency Distributions 

for Standards Cases.......................................................................................... 10-12

Table 10.3.1 Cooled Cabinets: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for 

Base and Standards Cases................................................................................ 10-14

Table 10.3.2 Non-Compressor Refrigerators: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases....................................... 10-15

Table 10.3.3 Ice Makers: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Energy Consumption 

for Base and Standards Cases.......................................................................... 10-15

Table 10.3.4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products: Shipment-Weighted Average Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases.................................................... 10-16

Table 10.4.1 Cooled Cabinets: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and 

Standards Cases ............................................................................................... 10-20

Table 10.4.2 Non-Compressor Refrigerators: Weighted Average Installed Price for 

Base and Standards Cases................................................................................ 10-20

Table 10.4.3 Ice Makers: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and Standards 

Cases................................................................................................................ 10-21

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculation of National Energy Savings and Net Present Value...... 10-24

Table 10.6.1 Cooled Cabinets: Cumulative National Energy Savings Full-Fuel-Cycle 

Results in Quads .............................................................................................. 10-26

Table 10.6.2 Non-Compressor Refrigerators Cumulative National Energy Savings FullFuel-Cycle Results in Quads............................................................................ 10-26

Table 10.6.3 Ice Makers: Cumulative National Energy Savings Full-Fuel-Cycle Results 

in Quads........................................................................................................... 10-27
10-iii

Table 10.6.4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products: Cumulative National Energy Savings FullFuel-Cycle Results in Quads............................................................................ 10-27

Table 10.6.5 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets, 

3-Percent Discount Rate .................................................................................. 10-28

Table 10.6.6 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets, 

7-Percent Discount Rate .................................................................................. 10-29

Table 10.6.7 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non-Compressor 

Thermoelectric Refrigerators, 3-Percent Discount Rate.................................. 10-29

Table 10.6.8 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non-Compressor 

Refrigerators, 7-Percent Discount Rate ........................................................... 10-30

Table 10.6.9 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers, 3-

Percent Discount Rate...................................................................................... 10-30

Table 10.6.10 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers, 7-

Percent Discount Rate...................................................................................... 10-31

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.5.1 Non-Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in 

Operating Cost for Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC-1) at 

Efficiency Level 5............................................................................................ 10-25
10-1

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This chapter describes the method the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used to conduct 

a national impacts analysis (NIA) of each standard level for miscellaneous refrigeration products. 

DOE evaluated the following impacts: (1) national energy savings (NES) attributable to each 

possible standard, (2) monetary value of those energy savings to consumers of the considered 

products, (3) increased total installed cost of the products because of standards, and (4) net 

present value (NPV) of energy savings (the difference between the value of energy savings and 

increased total installed cost).

DOE determined both the NES and NPV for all the efficiency levels (ELs) considered for 

miscellaneous refrigeration products. DOE performed all calculations for each considered 

product using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet.

http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/71. The 

spreadsheets combine the calculations for determining the NES and NPV for each considered 

product with input from the appropriate shipments model. Details and instructions for using the 

NIA model are provided in appendix 10A.

Chapter 9 provides a detailed description of the shipments models that DOE used to 

forecast future purchases of the considered products. Chapter 9 includes a description of the 

sensitivity of shipments to total installed cost and operating cost, and how DOE captured those 

sensitivities within the NIA model. 

In its preliminary analysis, DOE studied nine different product classes in detail as 

described in chapter 3 of this technical support document (TSD). However, efficiency cost 

curves were not available for all hybrid refrigeration products; DOE only evaluated the NES of 

those products and did not include them in the NPV analysis. To estimate the national impacts of 

potential standards for other product classes (cooled cabinets, non-compressor refrigerators, and

three types of ice makers) considered in this rulemaking, DOE applied the product cost and 

annual energy consumption estimation to each product class considered in this analysis.

10.1.1 Alternative Scenarios

The results in this chapter were calculated using selected inputs from the Reference case 

in the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 2014 (AEO2014).1

DOE also calculated NIA results using inputs from the High Economic Growth case and the Low 

Economic Growth case in AEO2014. These results can be viewed in the NIA spreadsheet by 

selecting the high or low growth economic scenario.
10-2

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENCIES FOR BASE AND STANDARDS CASES

A key factor in estimating NES and NPV is the trend in energy efficiency forecasted for 

the base case (without new standards) and each of the standards cases. In calculating the NES, 

per-unit annual energy consumption is a direct function of product efficiency. For the NPV, two 

inputs depend on efficiency. The first input, the per-unit total installed cost, is a direct function 

of efficiency. The per-unit annual operating cost, because it is a function of the per-unit annual 

consumption, is indirectly dependent on product efficiency. This section describes the method 

DOE used to forecast the energy efficiency distribution of the considered products under the base 

case and each of the potential standards cases. 

10.2.1 Method and Assumptions

10.2.1.1 Base Case Efficiencies

Table 10.2.1 to Table 10.2.4 show the base case distribution of ELs for each product 

class, using data calculated in chapter 7.a Note that the maximum efficiency level for each 

product class represents the max tech level (for cooled cabinets, non-compressor refrigerators

and hybrid refrigeration products) or maximum EL tested (for ice makers).

Table 10.2.1 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Cooled Cabinets 

Efficiency level % of CECequivalent 

energy use

CC: Cooled 

Cabinets

CC-1: Vapor 

Compression 

Cooled Cabinets

(15%)

CC-2: 

Thermoelectric 

Cooled Cabinets

(85%)

EL0 267 6.0% 0.0% 7.1%

EL1 200 10.9% 0.0% 12.8%

EL2 160 22.6% 0.0% 26.6%

EL3 130 18.8% 0.0% 22.1%

EL4 100 19.2% 16.7% 19.6%

EL5 90 9.2% 34.7% 4.7%

EL6 80 10.2% 27.8% 7.1%

EL7 70 1.7% 11.1% 0.0%

EL8 60 1.5% 9.7% 0.0%

EL9 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL10 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL11 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

 

a The CC-2 product category is referred to as Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinets in the following tables. The costefficiency curve for CC-2 uses thermoelectric cooling at baseline and vapor compression technology at efficiency 

levels 5 through 11. See chapter 5 for more information.
10-3

Table 10.2.2 Base Case Efficiency Level Distribution for Non-Compressor Refrigerators

Efficiency level % of 

baseline 

energy use

NCR: Noncompression 

refrigerators

NCR-1: 

Thermoelectric 

Refrigerators 

(90.5%)

NCR-2: 

Absorption 

Refrigerators 

(9.5%)

EL0 100 95.6% 100% 0%

EL1 95 4.4% 0.0% 100%

EL2 90 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL3 85 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL4 80 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL5 75 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL6 70 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL7 65 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL8 64 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Table 10.2.3 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Ice Makers

Efficiency level

IM-P: Portable Ice 

Maker

IM-C: Non-Portable 

Ice Maker, cooled 

storage

IM-U: Non-Portable 

Ice Maker, uncooled 

storage

% of 

baseline 

energy 

use

Market 

share

% of 

baseline 

energy 

use

Market 

share

% of 

baseline 

energy 

use

Market 

share

EL0 100 50.0% 100 50.0% 100 50.0%

EL1 90 0.0% 95 0.0% 95 0.0%

EL2 80 0.0% 90 0.0% 90 0.0%

EL3 70 0.0% 85 0.0% 85 0.0%

EL4 60 0.0% 80 0.0% 80 0.0%

EL5 50 0.0% 75 0.0% 75 0.0%

EL6 40 0.0% 74 50.0% 70 0.0%

EL7 35 50.0% 65 0.0%

EL8 63 50.0%
10-4

Table 10.2.4 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Hybrid Refrigeration Products

Efficiency 

Level

H-3A-BI: Standardsize, built-in hybrid 

all-refrigerators

H-11A: Compact, 

manual defrost 

hybrid allrefrigerators

H-13A: Compact, 

auto defrost hybrid 

all-refrigerators

H-9I-BI: Standardsize, built-in hybrid 

freezers

% of 2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use

Market 

Share

%

% of 2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use

Market 

Share

%

% of 2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use

Market 

Share

%

% of 2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use

Market 

Share

%

EL0 160 80.0% 160 43.0% 160 40.0% 100 0.0%

EL1 130 20.0% 130 57.0% 130 60.0% 95 0.0%

EL2 100 0.0% 100 0.0% 100 0.0% 90 0.0%

EL3 90 0.0% 90 0.0% 90 0.0% 85 60.0%

EL4 85 0.0% 80 0.0% 80 0.0% 80 40.0%

EL5 70 0.0% 70 0.0%

EL6 60 0.0% 60 0.0%

EL7 55 0.0% 55 0.0%

10.2.1.2 Standards Case Efficiencies

In the absence of other data, DOE assumed that the standard case distribution of 

efficiency levels remains static in the future. Table 10.2.5 through Table 10.2.17 show the 

efficiency distributions that DOE used for the miscellaneous refrigeration product classes under 

each standards case. The tables include the shipment-weighted energy use factor (SWEUF) 

associated with each standards case.
10-5

Table 10.2.5 Cooled Cabinets: Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

CECequivalent

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EL0 (-140) 2.67 6.0 - - - - - - - - - - -

EL1 (-100) 2.00 10.8 16.8 - - - - - - - - - -

EL2 (-60) 1.60 22.6 22.6 39.4 - - - - - - - - -

EL3 (-30) 1.30 18.8 18.8 18.8 58.2 - - - - - - - -

EL4 (0) 1.00 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 77.4 - - - - - - -

EL5 (10) 0.90 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 86.6 - - - - - -

EL6 (20) 0.80 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 96.8 - - - - -

EL7 (30) 0.70 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 98.5 - - - -

EL8 (40) 0.60 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 100.0 - - -

EL9 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL10 (60) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL11 (68) 0.32 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.36 1.32 1.25 1.13 0.96 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32
10-6

Table 10.2.6 Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinets (CC-1): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

CECequivalent

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EL0 (-140) 2.67 0.0 - - - - - - - - - - -

EL1 (-100) 2.00 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - - -

EL2 (-60) 1.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - - -

EL3 (-30) 1.30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - - - - - - - -

EL4 (0) 1.00 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 - - - - - - -

EL5 (10) 0.90 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 51.4 - - - - - -

EL6 (20) 0.80 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 79.2 - - - - -

EL7 (30) 0.70 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 90.3 - - - -

EL8 (40) 0.60 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 100.0 - - -

EL9 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL10 (60) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL11 (68) 0.32 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.77 0.69 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32
10-7

Table 10.2.7 Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinets (CC-2): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

CECequivalent

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EL0 (-140) 2.67 7.1 - - - - - - - - - - -

EL1 (-100) 2.00 12.8 19.9 - - - - - - - - - -

EL2 (-60) 1.60 26.6 26.6 46.5 - - - - - - - - -

EL3 (-30) 1.30 22.1 22.1 22.1 68.6 - - - - - - - -

EL4 (0) 1.00 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 88.2 - - - - - - -

EL5 (10) 0.90 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 92.9 - - - - - -

EL6 (20) 0.80 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 100.0 - - - - -

EL7 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - -

EL8 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - -

EL9 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL10 (60) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL11 (68) 0.32 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.45 1.41 1.33 1.19 0.98 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Table 10.2.8 Non-Compressor Refrigerators (NCR): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

baseline 

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 90.5 - - - - - - - -

EL1 (5) 0.95 9.5 100.0 - - - - - - -

EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - - -

EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - -

EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - -

EL6 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL8 (36) 0.64 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64
10-8

Table 10.2.9 Thermoelectric Refrigerators (NCR-1): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

baseline 

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 100.0 - - - - - - - -

EL1 (5) 0.95 0.0 100.0 - - - - - - -

EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - - -

EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - -

EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - -

EL6 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL8 (36) 0.64 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Table 10.2.10 Absorption Refrigeration Products (NCR-2): Efficiency Distributions for 

Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

baseline 

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 0.0 - - - - - - - -

EL1 (5) 0.95 100.0 100.0 - - - - - - -

EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - - -

EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - -

EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - -

EL6 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL8 (36) 0.64 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64
10-9

Table 10.2.11 Portable Ice Makers (IM-P): Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

baseline 

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EL0 (0) 1.00 50.0 - - - - - - -

EL1 (10) 0.90 0.0 50.0 - - - - - -

EL2 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - - - -

EL3 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - - -

EL4 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - -

EL5 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - -

EL6 (60) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 -

EL7 (65) 0.35 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.67 0.62 0.57 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.37 0.35

Table 10.2.12 Non-Portable Ice Makers, Cooled-Storage (IM-C): Efficiency Distributions 

for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

baseline 

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6

EL0 (0) 1.00 50.0 - - - - - -

EL1 (5) 0.95 0.0 50.0 - - - - -

EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - - -

EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - -

EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 -

EL6 (26) 0.74 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.75
10-10

Table 10.2.13 Non-Portable Ice Makers, Uncooled-Storage (IM-U): Efficiency Distributions 

for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

baseline 

energy 

use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 50.0 - - - - - - - -

EL1 (5) 0.95 0.0 50.0 - - - - - - -

EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - - - - -

EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - - -

EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - - -

EL6 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 - -

EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 -

EL8 (37) 0.63 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.63

Table 10.2.14 Standard-Size Built-In Hybrid All-Refrigerator (H-3A-BI): Efficiency 

Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4

EL0 (-60) 1.60 80.0 - - - -

EL1 (-30) 1.30 20.0 100.0 - - -

EL2 (0) 1.00 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL3 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL4 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.54 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.85
10-11

Table 10.2.15 Compact Hybrid All-Refrigerator with Manual Defrost (H-11A): Efficiency 

Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EL0 (-60) 1.60 43.0 - - - - - - -

EL1 (-30) 1.30 57.0 100.0 - - - - - -

EL2 (0) 1.00 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - -

EL3 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - -

EL5 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL6 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL7 (45) 0.55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.43 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.55

Table 10.2.16 Compact Hybrid All-Refrigerator with Automatic Defrost (H-13A): 

Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EL0 (-60) 1.60 40.0 - - - - - - -

EL1 (-30) 1.30 60.0 100.0 - - - - - -

EL2 (0) 1.00 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - - -

EL3 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - - -

EL5 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 - -

EL6 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 -

EL7 (45) 0.55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.42 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.55
10-12

Table 10.2.17 Standard-Size Built-In Hybrid Freezer (H-9I-BI): Efficiency Distributions 

for Standards Cases

Efficiency 

Level (% 

less than 

2014 

refrigerator 

standard

energy use)

Energy 

Use 

Factor

Market Share %

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4

EL0 (0) 1.00 0.0 - - - -

EL1 (5) 0.95 0.0 0.0 - - -

EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 - -

EL3 (15) 0.85 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 -

EL4 (20) 0.80 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.80

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

DOE calculated the national energy savings associated with the difference between the 

base case and the case associated with each potential standard for the miscellaneous refrigeration 

products considered herein. DOE calculated cumulative energy savings throughout the forecast 

period, which extends from 2021 to 2050.

10.3.1 Definition 

The following equation shows that DOE calculated annual NES as the difference between 

two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case. Positive values of

NES represent energy savings (that is, national annual energy consumption (AEC) under a 

standard is less than in the base case).

STD

_

BASE NESy = AEC AEC

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of annual national energy savings throughout the 

forecast period, which extends from the assumed effective date of new standards (2021) to 30 

years after that date (through 2050). 

DOE calculated the national annual site energy consumption by multiplying the number 

or stock of each product class (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (UEC; also by 

vintage). The calculation of national annual energy consumption is represented by the following 

equation.
10-13

y = ∑ V ×UECV AEC STOCK

DOE defined the quantities for the above expressions as follows.

AEC = national annual energy consumption each year in quadrillion British thermal units 

(quads), summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCKV,

NES = annual national energy savings (quads),

STOCKV = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in the year for which 

DOE calculated annual energy consumption,

UECV = annual energy consumption per product in kilowatt-hours (kWh),

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit, and 

y = year in the forecast.

Electricity consumption is converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by 

applying a time-dependent conversion factor.

The stock of a product depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the product. As 

described in chapter 9, DOE projected product shipments under the base case and the standards 

cases. DOE projected that shipments under the standards cases would be slightly lower than 

under the base case, because DOE believes that the higher purchase cost of more-efficient 

products would cause some consumers to forego purchasing new products.

To avoid including savings attributable to shipments displaced because of standards, 

DOE used the projected standards-case shipments and, in turn, the standards-case stock, to 

calculate the annual energy consumption for the base case.

10.3.2 Inputs 

The inputs to the calculation of NES are:

• shipments;

• product stock (STOCKV);

• annual energy consumption per unit (UEC);

• national annual energy consumption (AEC); and

• site-to-source conversion factor (src_conv).

10.3.2.1 Shipments

DOE forecasted shipments of each considered product class under the base case and all 

standards cases. Several factors affect forecasted shipments, including purchase cost, operating 

cost, and household income. As noted earlier, the increased cost of more-efficient products 

causes some consumers to forego buying the products. Consequently, shipments forecasted 
10-14

under the standards cases are lower than under the base case. The method DOE used to calculate 

and generate the shipments forecasts for each considered product class is described in detail in 

chapter 9, Shipments Analysis.

10.3.2.2 Equipment Stock

The equipment stock in a given year is the number of products shipped from earlier years 

that survive in that year. The NIA model tracks the number of units shipped each year. DOE

assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of 

survival as a function of years since purchase is the survival function. Chapter 8 provides 

additional details on the survival functions that DOE used for each product.

10.3.2.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

DOE used the SWEUFs presented in section 10.2 for the base case and standards cases, 

along with the data on annual energy consumption presented in chapters 7 and 8, to estimate the 

shipment-weighted average annual per-unit energy consumption under the base and each 

standards case. The average annual per-unit energy consumption for each product category is 

shown in Table 10.3.1 through Table 10.3.4.

Table 10.3.1 Cooled Cabinets: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base 

and Standards Cases

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Cooled Cabinets

SWEUF 1.36 1.32 1.25 1.13 0.96 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. 

Energy 

Use (kWh)

336 326 309 280 237 218 196 173 148 124 99 79

Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC-1)

SWEUF 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.77 0.69 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. 

Energy 

Use (kWh)

223 223 223 223 223 218 205 184 160 133 106 85

Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinet (CC-2)

SWEUF 1.45 1.41 1.33 1.19 0.98 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. 

Energy 

Use (kWh)

354 343 323 290 239 218 195 171 146 122 98 78

SWEUF = shipment-weighted energy use factor
10-15

Table 10.3.2 Non-Compressor Refrigerators: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual 

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Non-Compressor Refrigerators

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 669 638 605 571 538 504 470 437 430

Thermoelectric Refrigerator (NCR-1)

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 672 638 605 571 538 504 470 437 430

Absorption Refrigeration Product (NCR-2)

SWEUF 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 638 638 605 571 538 504 470 437 430

Table 10.3.3 Ice Makers: Shipment-Weighted Average Annual Energy Consumption for 

Base and Standards Cases

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Portable Ice Maker (IM-P)

SWEUF 0.67 0.62 0.57 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.37 0.35 -

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 173 160 147 134 121 109 96 89 -

Non-Portable Ice Maker, cooled storage (IM-C)

SWEUF 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.75 - -

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 482 468 454 440 426 413 411 - -

Non-Portable Ice Maker, uncooled storage (IM-U)

SWEUF 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.63

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 873 847 820 793 766 739 712 685 672

SWEUF = shipment-weighted energy use factor
10-16

Table 10.3.4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products: Shipment-Weighted Average Energy 

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

H-3A-BI

SWEUF 1.54 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.85 - - -

Avg. Energy 

Use (kWh) 517 437 336 302 286 - - -

H-11A

SWEUF 1.43 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.55

Avg. Energy 

Use (kWh) 364 331 254 229 204 178 153 140

H-13A

SWEUF 1.42 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.55

Avg. Energy 

Use (kWh) 442 405 312 280 249 218 187 171

H-9I-BI

SWEUF 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.80 - - -

Avg. Energy 

Use (kWh) 415 415 415 415 400 - - -

SWEUF = shipment-weighted energy use factor

10.3.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption

The national annual energy consumption (AEC) is the product of the annual energy 

consumption per unit and the number of units of each vintage. This method of calculation 

accounts for differences in unit energy consumption from year to year. In determining national 

annual energy consumption, DOE first calculated annual energy consumption at the site, then 

applied a site-to-source conversion factor and a full-fuel-cycle energy factor, described in section 

10.3.2.5 and section 10.3.2.6, to calculate primary energy consumption. 

10.3.2.5 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors

In determining national annual energy consumption, DOE initially calculated the annual 

energy consumption at the site (for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the household or 

establishment). It then used site energy consumption to calculate primary (source) energy 

consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the 

generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. The site-to-source conversion factor is a 

multiplicative factor used to convert site energy consumption into primary or source energy 

consumption, expressed in quads (quadrillion Btu). DOE used annual site-to-source conversion 
10-17

factors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)b that corresponds 

to AEO2014. The factors are marginal values, which represent the response of the system to an 

incremental decrease in consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors change over time in 

response to projected changes in generation sources (i.e., the types of power plants projected to 

provide electricity to the Nation). The values derived from the AEO2014 NEMS end in 2040. 

DOE assumed that conversion factors remain at the 2040 values throughout the rest of the 

forecast.

10.3.2.6 Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Factors

The full-fuel-cycle (FFC) measures point-of-use (site) energy; the energy losses 

associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; and the energy 

consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. To calculate 

the FFC by incorporating the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or 

distributing primary fuels, referred to as upstream activities, DOE developed FFC multipliers 

using the data and projections generated by the NEMS used for AEO 2014. The AEO 2014

provides extensive information about the energy system, including projections of future oil, 

natural gas, and coal supplies; energy use for oil and gas field and refinery operations; and fuel 

consumption and emissions related to electric power production. This information can help 

define a set of parameters that represents the energy intensity of energy production. 

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

DOE calculated the NPV of the increased product cost and reduced operating cost 

associated with the difference between the base case and each potential standards case for the 

considered miscellaneous refrigeration products. 

10.4.1 Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time-series of costs and savings. The NPV is 

described by the equation:

NPV PVS PVC _ =

 

b For more information on NEMS, please refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information 

Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2000, 

DOE/EIA-0581(2000), March 2000. EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the 

model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications and 

the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE refers to the model by 

the name NEMS-BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been 

performed). NEMS-BT was previously called NEMS-BRS.
10-18

Where:

PVS = present value of savings in operating cost, and 

PVC = present value of increased total product cost to consumers. 

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions.

PVS = ∑OCSy× DFy

PVC = ∑TICy× DFy

Where:

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the product 

stock, STOCKV,

TIC = total annual increases in product cost each year summed over years of the product 

shipments, SHIPy,

DF = discount factor in each year, and 

y = year in the forecast.

DOE calculated the total annual consumer savings in operating cost by multiplying the 

number or stock of a given product class (by vintage) by its per-unit operating cost savings (also 

by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual increases in consumer product cost by multiplying 

the number or shipments of the given product class (by vintage) by its per-unit increase in 

consumer product cost (also by vintage). The calculation of total annual operating cost savings 

and total annual product cost increases is represented by the following equations.

OCSy = ∑STOCKV ×UOCSV

TICy = ∑SHIPy

×UTICy

Where:

STOCKV = stock of products of vintage V that survive in the year for which DOE calculated 

annual energy consumption,

UOCSV = annual per-unit savings in operating cost,

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit,

SHIPy = shipments of products in year y, and

UTICy = annual per-unit increase in installed product cost in year y.

DOE determined the total increased product cost for each year from the effective date of 

a potential standard to 2050. It determined the present value of operating cost savings for each 

year from the effective date of the standard to the year when all units purchased by 2050 have 
10-19

been retired. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between a standards case and a 

base case without new standards. 

DOE developed a discount factor from the national discount rate and the number of years 

between the present (i.e., year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the

costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

10.4.2 Inputs

The inputs to calculation of the NPV are: 

• average annual product cost;

• average annual savings in operating cost;

• total annual increases in product cost;

• total annual savings in operating cost; 

• discount factor;

• present value of costs; and

• present value of savings.

The increase in total annual product cost is equal to the annual change in the average 

annual product cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the 

shipments forecasted in the standards case. As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not 

calculate total annual product costs using base-case shipments. To avoid including savings due to 

displaced shipments (by consumers deciding not to buy higher-cost products), DOE used the 

standards-case projection of shipments and, in turn, the standards-case stock, to calculate product 

costs.

The total annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in annual operating cost 

(difference between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments

forecasted in the standards case.

10.4.2.1 Average Annual Installed Price

The average annual installed price is directly dependent on efficiency. DOE therefore 

used the efficiency distributions presented in section 10.2.1.2 for the base case and each 

standards case, along with the product costs at various ELs (presented in chapter 8), to estimate

the weighted average annual installed price under the base and standards cases. As mentioned in 

the introduction, there is no robust incremental cost estimation available for hybrid refrigeration 

products; hence, the weighted average annual installed price at each EL was only developed for 

cooled cabinets and ice makers. The average annual installed price for each product category is 

shown in Table 10.4-1 and Table 10.4-2.
10-20

Table 10.4.1 Cooled Cabinets: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and Standards 

Cases

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Cooled Cabinets

SWEUF 1.36 1.32 1.25 1.13 0.96 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. Installed 

Price (2013$) 347 349 351 356 363 368 386 407 425 443 531 615

Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC-1)

SWEUF 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.77 0.69 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. Installed 

Price (2013$) 587 587 587 587 587 589 596 610 630 652 761 866

Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinet (CC-2)

SWEUF 1.45 1.41 1.33 1.19 0.98 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. Installed 

Price (2013$) 299 302 305 312 322 326 346 369 386 404 487 568

Table 10.4.2 Non-Compressor Refrigerators: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base 

and Standards Cases

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Non-Compressor Refrigerators

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Installed Price 

(2013$) 165 165 165 166 177 185 185 197 207

Thermoelectric Refrigerator (NCR-1)

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Installed Price 

(2013$) 165 165 165 166 177 185 185 197 207

Absorption Refrigeration Product (NCR-2)

SWEUF 0.95 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Installed Price 

(2013$) 165 165 165 165 177 185 185 197 207
10-21

Table 10.4.3 Ice Makers: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and Standards Cases

Base 

Case

Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Portable Ice Maker (IM-P)

SWEUF 0.67 0.62 0.57 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.37 0.35 -

Avg. Installed Price (2013$) 212 212 213 214 215 216 216 217 -

Non-Portable Ice Maker, cooled storage (IM-C)

SWEUF 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.75 - -

Avg. Installed Price (2013$) 1,119 1,120 1,122 1,124 1,126 1,128 1,128 - -

Non-Portable Ice Maker, uncooled storage (IM-U)

SWEUF 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.63

Avg. Installed Price (2013$) 1,119 1,121 1,123 1,125 1,127 1,129 1,131 1,133 1,134 

SWEUF = shipment-weighted energy use factor

As discussed in chapter 8, the historical price data specific to miscellaneous refrigeration 

product are not available to obtain. Hence, for this preliminary analysis for miscellaneous 

refrigeration products, DOE applied constant price assumption as the default product price trend

to project the prices of miscellaneous refrigeration products sold in each year in the forecast 

period (2021-2050). For each type of miscellaneous refrigeration product, DOE also applied the 

same constant price trend to project prices for each product class at each considered EL. To 

investigate the impact of different equipment price projections on the consumer net present value 

(NPV) for different efficiency levels, DOE also considered two alternative price trends. Details 

on how these alternative price trends were developed are documented in Appendix 10-B which 

also presents the results of the sensitivity analysis.

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

The average annual operating cost includes the costs for energy, repair, and maintenance. 

As described in chapter 8, for all the considered products DOE assumed that potential standards 

would produce no increase in maintenance or repair costs. For all the considered products, 

therefore, DOE determined the per-unit annual savings in operating cost based only on the 

savings in energy costs attributable to a standard. DOE determined the per-unit annual savings in 

operating cost by multiplying the per-unit annual savings in energy consumption developed for 

each product class by the appropriate energy price. As described in chapter 8, DOE forecasted 

energy prices based on EIA’s AEO 2014.

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Product Cost 

The total annual increase in product cost for any given standards case is the product of 

the average cost increase per unit due to the standard and the number of units of each vintage 

shipped. This method accounts for differences in product cost from year to year. The equation 
10-22

for determining the total annual increase in product cost for a given standards case, which was 

shown in section 10.4.1, is repeated here.

TICy = ∑SHIPy×UTICy

As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not calculate total annual product costs 

using base-case shipments. To avoid including savings due to displaced shipments (by 

consumers deciding not to buy higher-cost products), DOE used the standards-case projection of 

shipments and, in turn, the standards-case stock, to calculate product costs.

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost 

The total annual savings in operating cost for any given standards case is the product of 

the annual savings in operating cost per unit attributable to the standard and the number of units 

of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in annual savings in operating cost from 

year to year. The equation for determining the total annual savings in operating cost for a given 

standards case, which was presented in section 10.4.1, is repeated here. 

OCS = ∑STOCKV ×UOCSV

10.4.2.5 Discount Factor

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the 

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation:

( y yp ) _

( r )

DF

1+

1 =

Where:

r = discount rate, 

y = year in which the monetary value exists, and 

yP = year in which the present value is being determined.

Although DOE used consumer discount rates to determine the life-cycle cost of 

miscellaneous refrigeration products (chapter 8), it used national discount rates to calculate 

national NPV. DOE estimated NPV using both a 3-percent and a 7-percent real discount rate, in 

accordance with the Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the 

development of regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring 

Benefits and Costs.

2 DOE defined the present year as 2014.
10-23

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

The present value of increased product costs is the annual total cost increase in each year 

(the difference between a standards case and the base case), discounted to the present and 

summed throughout the period in which DOE is considering the installation of products 

(2021through 2050). DOE calculated annual increases in installed cost as the difference in total 

product cost for new appliances purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the 

standards case.

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

The present value of savings in operating cost is the annual savings on operating cost (the 

difference between the base case and a standards case), discounted to the present and summed 

from the effective date to the time when the last unit installed in 2050 is retired from service.

Savings are decreases in operating cost associated with the higher energy efficiency of products 

purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost 

are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a 

particular year.

10.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS 

The NIA model produces estimates of the NES and NPV attributable to a given 

efficiency level. The inputs to the NIA model were discussed in sections 10.3.2 (inputs to NES) 

and 10.4.2 (inputs to NPV). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel 

spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet 

<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/71> 

Details on the spreadsheet and instructions for using it are provided in appendix 10A.

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

Table 10.5.1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model. 
10-24

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculation of National Energy Savings and Net Present Value

Input Description

Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model. (See chapter 9.)

Compliance date of standard 2021.

Base-case forecasted efficiencies See section 10.2.

Standards-case efficiencies See section 10.2.

Annual energy consumption per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of SWEUF. 

(See section 10.3.2.3.)

Total installed cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of the 

efficiency distribution. (See section 10.4.2.1.)

Energy cost per unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of annual 

energy consumption per unit and energy prices. (See chapter 8 

for energy prices.)

Repair and maintenance costs per unit Average repair and maintenance costs were drawn from a 

survey study (See chapter 8 for operating cost inputs)

Forecast of energy prices Energy prices: EIA AEO2014 forecasts (to 2040) and 

extrapolation thereafter. (See chapter 8.)

Site-to-source conversion factor A time-series conversion factor that includes electric 

generation, transmission, and distribution losses. Conversion, 

which changes yearly, is generated by DOE-EIA’s NEMS* 

program.

Full-fuel-cycle energy factor A time-series factor that measures the energy consumed 

in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing 

primary fuels.

Discount rates 3% and 7% real.

Present year Future expenses are discounted to 2014.

* Chapter 15, Utility Impact Analysis, provides more detail on the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).

10.5.2 Annual Costs and Savings

Figure 10.5-1 illustrates the basic inputs to the calculation of net present value (NPV) by 

showing the non-discounted annual increases in product cost and annual savings in operating 

cost at the national level for efficiency level 5 for product class CC-1 (vapor compression cooled 

cabinet). The figure also shows the net savings, which is the difference between the savings and 

costs for each year. The annual increase in product cost is the total cost for products purchased 

each year in the forecast period. The annual savings in operating cost applies to products

operating in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted 

savings and cumulative annual discounted costs. Figure 10.5-1 shows, as an example, nondiscounted annual increases in installed cost and savings in operating cost for product class CC-1

at efficiency level 5; DOE could create figures like Figure 10.5-1 for each of the considered 

efficiency levels for each product class.
10-25

Figure 10.5.1 Non-Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in Operating 

Cost for Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC-1) at Efficiency Level 5

10.6 NES AND NPV RESULTS BY ENERGY EFFICIENCY LEVEL

10.6.1 National Energy Savings Results by Energy Efficiency Level

This section provides the cumulative national energy savings full-fuel-cycle results that 

DOE calculated for each of the ELs analyzed for miscellaneous refrigeration products.
10-26

Table 10.6.1 Cooled Cabinets: Cumulative National Energy Savings Full-Fuel-Cycle 

Results in Quads

Efficiency Level Cooled Cabinet

Vapor 

Compressions 

Cooled Cabinet

Thermoelectric 

Cooled Cabinet

CC CC-1 CC-2

1 0.052 0.000 0.052

2 0.139 0.000 0.139

3 0.292 0.000 0.292

4 0.518 0.000 0.518

5 0.618 0.004 0.614

6 0.733 0.017 0.716

7 0.852 0.031 0.821

8 0.976 0.050 0.926

9 1.102 0.071 1.031

10 1.199 0.090 1.109

11 1.266 0.104 1.162

Table 10.6.2 Non-Compressor Refrigerators Cumulative National Energy Savings FullFuel-Cycle Results in Quads

Efficiency Level

Non-Compressor 

Refrigerator

Thermoelectric 

Refrigerator

Absorption 

Refrigerator

NCR NCR-1 NCR-2

1 0.063 0.063 0.000

2 0.134 0.126 0.008

3 0.204 0.189 0.016

4 0.275 0.252 0.023

5 0.346 0.314 0.031

6 0.416 0.377 0.039

7 0.487 0.440 0.047

8 0.501 0.453 0.048
10-27

Table 10.6.3 Ice Makers: Cumulative National Energy Savings Full-Fuel-Cycle Results in 

Quads

Efficiency Level

Portable Ice Maker Non-Portable Ice

Maker, cooled storage

Non-Portable Ice

Maker, uncooled 

storage

IM-P IM-C IM-U

1 0.012 0.001 0.008

2 0.024 0.003 0.017

3 0.036 0.004 0.025

4 0.048 0.006 0.033

5 0.059 0.007 0.042

6 0.071 0.008 0.050

7 0.077 0.058

8 0.062

Table 10.6.4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products: Cumulative National Energy Savings FullFuel-Cycle Results in Quads

Efficiency 

Level

Standard-Size 

Built-In 

RefrigeratorCooled Cabinet

Compact 

RefrigeratorCooled Cabinet 

with Manual 

Defrost

Compact 

RefrigeratorCooled Cabinet 

with Automatic 

Defrost

Standard-Size 

Built-In 

Freezer-Cooled 

Cabinet

H3A-BI H11A H13A H9I-BI

1 0.019 0.003 0.014 0.000

2 0.043 0.010 0.048 0.000

3 0.051 0.012 0.059 0.000

4 0.055 0.015 0.071 0.001

5 0.017 0.082

6 0.019 0.093

7 0.020 0.099

10.6.2 Consumer Net Present Value Results by Energy Efficiency Level

Table 10.6.5 through Table 10.6.10 show the cumulative NPV associated with each of the 

considered ELs for each group of miscellaneous refrigeration products, except for hybrid 

refrigeration products due to the reasons mentioned previously. Results in Table 10.6.5 , Table 

10.6.7 and Table 10.6.9 are shown as the discounted dollar value using a 3 percent discount rate, 

and results in Table 10.6.6, Table 10.6.8 and Table 10.6.10 are shown as the discounted dollar 

value of the net savings using a 7 percent discount rate. The results here reflect the default 
10-28

constant price index factor for product costs in 2021, which assumes the product costs remain the 

same as in 2012.

Table 10.6.5 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets, 3-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Cooled Cabinet

Vapor 

Compression 

Cooled Cabinet

Thermoelectric 

Cooled Cabinet

CC CC-1 CC-2

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.278 0.000 0.278

2 0.743 0.000 0.743

3 1.559 0.000 1.559

4 2.762 0.000 2.762

5 3.278 0.000 3.278

6 3.026 0.019 3.007

7 2.629 0.016 2.613

8 2.485 -0.024 2.509

9 2.337 -0.068 2.405

10 -1.953 -0.889 -1.064

11 -5.985 -1.664 -4.320
10-29

Table 10.6.6 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets, 7-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Cooled Cabinet

Vapor 

Compression 

Cooled Cabinet

Thermoelectric 

Cooled Cabinet

CC CC-1 CC-2

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.118 0.000 0.118

2 0.315 0.000 0.315

3 0.661 0.000 0.661

4 1.171 0.000 1.171

5 1.388 -0.001 1.390

6 1.226 0.004 1.222

7 0.989 -0.003 0.992

8 0.875 -0.029 0.904

9 0.758 -0.058 0.816

10 -1.367 -0.465 -0.902

11 -3.345 -0.846 -2.499

Table 10.6.7 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non-Compressor 

Thermoelectric Refrigerators, 3-Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level

Non-Compressor 

Refrigerator

Thermoelectric 

Refrigerator Absorption 

Refrigerator

NCR NCR-1 NCR-2

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.470 0.470 0.000

2 0.997 0.939 0.058

3 1.525 1.409 0.116

4 1.779 1.635 0.144

5 2.125 1.943 0.182

6 2.649 2.409 0.240

7 2.891 2.625 0.266

8 2.759 2.507 0.252
10-30

Table 10.6.8 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non-Compressor 

Refrigerators, 7-Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level

Non-Compressor 

Refrigerator

Thermoelectric 

Refrigerator Absorption 

Refrigerator

NCR NCR-1 NCR-2

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.208 0.208 0.000

2 0.441 0.416 0.026

3 0.675 0.624 0.051

4 0.775 0.712 0.062

5 0.920 0.841 0.078

6 1.151 1.047 0.104

7 1.245 1.131 0.114

8 1.175 1.069 0.106

Table 10.6.9 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers, 3-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level

Portable Ice Maker Non-Portable Ice

Maker, cooled storage

Non-Portable Ice

Maker, uncooled 

storage

IM-P IM-C IM-U

billion 2013 dollars

1 0.082 0.009 0.056

2 0.163 0.018 0.111

3 0.245 0.027 0.167

4 0.327 0.036 0.222

5 0.408 0.044 0.278

6 0.490 0.045 0.334

7 0.533 0.389

8 0.417
10-31

Table 10.6.10 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers, 7-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level

Portable Ice Maker Non-Portable Ice

Maker, cooled storage

Non-Portable Ice

Maker, uncooled 

storage

IM-P IM-C IM-U

billion 2013 dollars

1 0.036 0.004 0.024

2 0.072 0.008 0.049

3 0.107 0.012 0.073

4 0.143 0.015 0.097

5 0.179 0.019 0.122

6 0.215 0.020 0.146

7 0.234 0.170

8 0.182
10-32

REFERENCES

 1 U.S. Department of Energy–Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 

2010 with Projections to 2035. April 2010. U.S. DOE–EIA: Washington, D.C. DOE/EIA0383(2010).

2 Office of Management and Budget. OMB Circular A-4, Regulatory Analysis. 2003. OMB: 

Washington, D.C. September 17, 2003. 

<http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars_a004_a-4>

<http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/regpol/circular-a-4_regulatoryimpact-analysis-a-primer.pdf>