10-i 

### CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

................................ ................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 1

10.1.1 Alternative Scenarios

................................ ................................ ................................ ..... 10

- 1

10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENC IES FOR BASE AND STA NDARDS CASES

.............. 10

- 2

10.2.1 Method and Assumptions

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- 2

10.2.1.1 Base Case Efficiencies

................................ ................................ ................. 10

- 2

10.2.1.2 Standards Case Efficiencies

................................ ................................ ......... 10

- 4

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

................................ ................................ ............. 10

- 12

10.3.1 Definition

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 10

- 12

10.3.2 Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 10

- 13

10.3.2.1 Shipments

................................ ................................ ................................ ... 10

- 13

10.3.2.2 Equipment Stock

................................ ................................ ........................ 10

- 14

10.3.2.3 Annual Energy Consum ption per Unit

................................ ...................... 10

- 14

10.3.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption

................................ ...................... 10

- 16

10.3.2.5 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factors

................................ ............................ 10

- 16

10.3.2.6 Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Factors

................................ ................................ . 10

- 17

10.4 NET PRES ENT VALUE

................................ ................................ ............................. 10

- 17

10.4.1 Definition

................................ ................................ ................................ ..................... 10

- 17

10.4.2 Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ ............................ 10

- 19

10.4.2.1 Average Annual Installed Price

................................ ................................ . 10

- 19

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

................................ ................... 10

- 21

10.4 .2.3 Total Annual Increases in Product Cost

................................ ..................... 10

- 21

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost

................................ ................... 10

- 22

10.4.2.5 Discount Factor

................................ ................................ .......................... 10

- 22

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

................................ ................................ ............... 10

- 23

10.4.2.7 Present Valu e of Savings

................................ ................................ ........... 10

- 23

10.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS

................................ ................................ ......................... 10

- 23

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

................................ ................................ ................................ ....... 10

- 23

10.5.2 Annual Costs and Savings

................................ ................................ ........................... 10

- 24

10.6 NES AND NPV RESU LTS BY ENERGY EFFICI ENCY LEVEL

........................... 10

- 25

10.6.1 National Energy Savings Results by Energy Efficiency Level

................................ ... 10

- 25

10.6.2 Consumer Net Present Value Results by Energy Efficiency Level

............................. 10

- 27

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10.2.1 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Cooled Cabinets

........................ 10

- 2

Table 10.2.2 Base Case Efficiency Level Distribution for Non

- Compressor

Refrigerators

................................ ................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 3

Table 10.2.3 Base C ase Efficiency Level Distributions for Ice Makers

................................ . 10

- 3

Table 10.2.4 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Hybrid Refrigeration

Products

................................ ................................ ................................ .............. 10

- 4

Table 10.2.5 Cooled Cabinets: Efficiency Distributions for St andards Cases

........................ 10

- 510-ii 

### Table 10.2.6 Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinets (CC

- 1): Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 6

Table 10.2.7 Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinets (CC

- 2): Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 7

Table 10.2.8 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators (NCR): Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 7

Table 10.2.9 Thermoelectric Refrigerators (NCR

- 1): Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 8

Table 10.2.10 Absorption Refrigeration Products (NCR

- 2): Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................................ . 10

- 8

Table 10.2.11 Portable Ice Makers (IM

- P): Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

...... 10

- 9

Table 10.2.12 Non

- Por table Ice Makers, Cooled

- Storage (IM

- C): Efficiency

Distributions for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ...... 10

- 9

Table 10.2.13 Non

- Portable Ice Makers, Uncooled

- Storage (IM

- U): Efficiency

Distributions for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ .... 10

- 10

Table 10.2.14 Standard

- Size Bui lt

- In Hybrid All

- Refrigerator (H

- 3A

- BI) : Efficiency

Distributions for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ .... 10

- 10

Table 10.2.15 Compact Hybrid All

- Refriger ator with Manual Defrost (H

- 11A) :

Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

................................ .................. 10

- 11

Table 10.2.16 Compact Hybrid All

- Refrigerator with Automatic Defrost (H

- 13A) :

Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

................................ .................. 10

- 11

Table 10.2.17 Standard

- Size Built

- In Hybrid Freezer (H

- 9I

- BI) : Efficiency Distributions

for Standards Cases

................................ ................................ .......................... 10

- 12

Table 10.3.1 Cooled Cabinets: Shi pment

- Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for

Base and Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 14

Table 10.3.2 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators: Shipment

- Weigh ted Average Annual

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases

................................ ....... 10

- 15

Table 10.3.3 Ice Makers: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual E nergy Consumption

for Base and Standards Cases

................................ ................................ .......... 10

- 15

Table 10.3.4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products: Shipment

- Weighted Average Energy

Co nsumption for Base and Standards Cases

................................ .................... 10

- 16

Table 10.4.1 Cooled Cabinets: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and

Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ............................... 10

- 20

Table 10.4.2 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators: Weighted Average Installed Price for

Base and Standards Cases

................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 20

Table 10.4.3 Ice Makers: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and Standards

Cases

................................ ................................ ................................ ................ 10

- 21

Table 10.5.1 Inputs to Calculation of National Energy Savings and Net Present Value

...... 10

- 24

Table 10.6.1 Cooled Cabinets: Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

- Fuel

- Cycle

Results in Quads

................................ ................................ .............................. 10

- 26

Table 10.6.2 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

Fuel

- Cycle Results in Quads

................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 26

Table 10.6.3 Ice Makers: Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Results

in Quads

................................ ................................ ................................ ........... 10

- 2710-iii 

### Table 10.6.4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products: Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

Fuel

- Cycle Results in Quads

................................ ................................ ............ 10

- 27

Table 10.6.5 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets,

3

- Percent Discount Rate

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 28

Table 10.6.6 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets,

7

- Percent Discount Rate

................................ ................................ .................. 10

- 29

Table 10.6.7 Cumulative N et Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non

- Compressor

Thermoelectric Refrigerators, 3

- Percent Discount Rate

................................ .. 10

- 29

Table 10.6.8 Cu mulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non

- Compressor

Refrigerators, 7

- Percent Discount Rate

................................ ........................... 10

- 30

Table 10.6.9 Cumulati ve Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers, 3

-

Percent Discount Rate

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 30

Table 10.6.10 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers, 7

-

Percent Discount Rate

................................ ................................ ...................... 10

- 31

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 10.5.1 Non

- Discounted Annual I ncreases in Installed Cost and Savings in

Operating Cost for Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC

- 1) at

Efficiency Level 5

................................ ................................ ............................ 10

- 2510-1 

### CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANAL YSIS

10.1 INTRODUCTION

This c hapter describes the method the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) used to conduct

a national impacts analysis (NIA) of each standard level for miscellaneous refrigeration products.

DOE evaluated the following impacts: (1) national energy savings (NES) attributable to each

possible standard, (2) monetary value of those energy savings to consumers of the considered

products, (3) increased total installed cost o f the products because of standards, and (4) net

present value (NPV) of energy savings (the difference between the value of energy savings and

increased total installed cost).

DOE determin ed both the NES and NPV for all the efficiency levels (ELs) consi dered for

miscellaneous refrigeration products. DOE performed all calculations for each considered

pro duct using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet

. http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/71

. The

spreadsheets combine the calculations for determining the NES and NPV for each considered

product with input from the appropriate s hipme nts model. Details and instructions for using the

NIA model are provided in a ppendix 10 A.

Chapter 9 provides a detailed description of the shipments models that DOE used to

forecast future purchases of the considered products. Chapter 9 includes a desc ription of the

sensitivity of shipments to total installed cost and operating cost, and how DOE captured those

sensitivities within the NIA model.

In its preliminary analysis, DOE studied nine different product classes in detail as

described in c hapter 3 of this technical support document (TSD)

. However, efficiency cost

curve s w ere not available for all hybrid refrigeration products; DOE only evaluated the NES of

those products and did not include them in the NPV analysis

. To estimate the national impact s of

potential standards for other product classes (cooled cabinets , non

- compressor refrigerators, and

three types of ice makers) considered in this rulemaking, DOE applied the product cost and

annual energy consumption estimation to each product class con sidered in this analysis.

10.1.1 Alternative Scenarios

The results in this chapter were calculated using selected inputs from the Reference case

in the Energy Information Administration ’s (EIA’s) Annual Energy Outlook 201 4 ( AEO201 4 ). 1



### DOE also calculated NIA results using inputs from the High Economic Growth case and the Low

Economic Growth case in AEO201 4

. These results can be viewed in the NIA spreadsheet by

selecting the high or low growth economic scenario

.10-2 

### 10.2 FORECASTED EFFICIENC IES FOR BASE AND STANDAR DS CASES

A key factor in estimating NES and NPV is the trend in energy efficiency forecasted for

the base case (without new standards) and each of the standards cases. In calculating the NES,

per

- unit annual energy consumption is a dir ect function of product efficiency. For the NPV, two

inputs depend on efficiency. The first input, the per

- unit total installed cost, is a direct function

of efficiency. The per

- unit annual operating cost, because it is a function of the per

- unit annual

co nsumption, is indirectly dependent on product efficiency. This section describes the method

DOE used to forecast the energy efficienc y distribution of the considered products under the base

case and each of the potential standards cases

.

10.2.1 Method and Assump tions

10.2.1.1 Base Case Efficiencies

Table 10.2

. 1 to Table 10.2

. 4 show the base case distribution of ELs for each product

class , using data calculated in c hapter 7. a 

### Note that the maximum efficiency level for each

product class represents the max tech level (for cooled cabinets , non

- compressor refrigerators

and hybrid refrigeration products) or maximum EL tested (for ice makers).

Table 10.2

. 1 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Cooled Cabinets

Efficiency level % of CEC

equivalent

energy use CC: Cooled

Cabinets CC

- 1: Vapor

Compression

Cooled Cabinets

(1 5 %) CC

- 2:

Thermoelectric

Cooled Cabinets

( 85 %)

EL0 2 67 6.0% 0.0% 7.1%

EL1 200 10.9% 0.0% 12.8%

EL2 160 22.6% 0.0% 26.6%

EL3 130 18.8% 0.0% 22.1%

EL4 100 19.2% 16.7% 19.6%

EL5 90 9.2% 34.7% 4.7%

EL6 8 0 10.2% 27.8% 7.1%

EL7 70 1.7% 11.1% 0.0%

EL8 60 1.5% 9.7% 0.0%

EL9 50 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL10 40 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL11 32 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

a The CC

- 2 product category is referred to as Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinets in the following tables. The cost

efficiency curve for CC

- 2 uses thermoelectric cooling at baseline and vapor compression technology at efficiency

levels 5 through 11. See chapter 5 for more information.10-3 

### Table 10.2

. 2 Base Case Efficiency Level Distribution for Non

- Compressor Refrigerators

Efficiency level % of

baseline

energy use NCR: Non

compression

refrigerators NCR

- 1:

Thermoelectric

Refrigerators

(90.5%) NCR

- 2:

Absorption

Refrigerators

(9.5%)

EL0 100 95.6 % 100 % 0 %

EL1 95 4.4 % 0.0 % 100 %

EL2 90 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL3 85 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL4 80 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL5 75 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL6 70 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL7 65 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

EL8 64 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

T 

### able 10.2

. 3 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Ice Makers

Efficiency level IM

- P: Portable Ice

Maker IM

- C: Non

- Portable

Ice Maker

, cooled

storage IM

- U: Non

- Portable

Ice Maker , uncooled

storage

% of

baseline

energy

use Market

share % of

baseline

energy

use Market

share % of

baseline

energy

use Market

share

EL0 100 50.0% 100 50.0% 100 50.0%

EL1 90 0.0% 95 0.0% 95 0.0%

EL2 80 0.0% 90 0.0% 90 0.0%

EL3 70 0.0% 85 0.0% 85 0.0%

EL4 60 0.0% 80 0.0% 80 0.0%

EL5 50 0.0% 75 0.0% 75 0.0%

EL6 40 0.0% 74 50.0% 70 0.0%

EL7 35 50.0% 65 0.0%

EL8 63 50.0%10-4 

### Table 10.2

. 4 Base Case Efficiency Level Distributions for Hybrid Refrigeration Products

Efficiency

L evel H

- 3A

- BI : Standard

size, built

- in hybrid

all

- refrigerators H

- 11A : Compact,

manual defrost

hybrid all

refrigerators H

- 13A: Compact,

auto defrost hybrid

all

- refrigerators H

- 9I

- BI: Standard

size, built

- in hybrid

freezers

% of 2014

refrigerator

standard

e nergy u se Market

Share

% % of 2014

refrigerator

standard

e nergy u se Market

Share

% % of 2014

refrigerator

standard

e nergy u se Market

Share

% % of 2014

refrigerator

standard

e nergy u se Market

Share

%

EL0 160 80.0 % 160 43.0% 160 40.0% 100 0.0%

EL1 130 20.0 % 130 57.0% 130 60.0% 95 0.0%

EL2 100 0.0% 100 0.0% 100 0.0% 9 0 0.0%

EL3 90 0.0% 90 0.0% 90 0.0% 85 60.0%

EL4 85 0.0% 8 0 0.0% 80 0.0% 80 40.0%

EL5 70 0.0% 70 0.0%

EL6 60 0.0% 60 0.0%

EL7 55 0.0% 55 0.0%



### 10.2.1.2 Standards C ase Efficiencies

In the absence of other data, DOE assum ed that the standard case distribution of

efficiency levels remains static in the future

. Table 10.2

. 5 through Table 10.2

. 17 show the

efficiency distributions that DOE used for the miscellaneous refrigeration product classes under

each standards case. The tables include the shipment

- weighted energy use factor (SWEUF)

associated with each standards case

.10-5 

### Table 10.2

. 5 Cooled Cabinets: Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

CEC

equivalent

energy

use) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EL0 (

- 140) 2. 67 6 .0

- - - - - - - - - - - EL1 (

- 100) 2.00 10.8 16.8

- - - - - - - - - - EL2 (

- 60) 1.60 22.6 22.6 39.4

- - - - - - - - - EL3 (

- 30) 1.30 18.8 18.8 18.8 58.2

- - - - - - - -

EL4 (0) 1.00 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.2 77.4

- - - - - - - EL5 (10) 0.90 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 9.2 86.6

- - - - - - EL6 (20) 0.80 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.2 96.8

- - - - - EL7 (30) 0.70 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 98.5

- - - - EL8 (40) 0.60 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 100.0

- - - EL9 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL10 (60) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL11 (68) 0.32 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1. 36 1.32 1.25 1.13 0.96 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.3210-6 

### Table 10.2

. 6 Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinets (CC

- 1): Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

CEC

equivalent

energy

use) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EL0 (

- 140) 2. 67 0.0

- - - - - - - - - - - EL1 (

- 100) 2.00 0.0 0.0

- - - - - - - - - - EL2 (

- 60) 1.60 0.0 0.0 0.0

- - - - - - - - - EL3 (

- 30) 1.30 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

- - - - - - - -

EL4 (0) 1.00 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.7

- - - - - - - EL5 (10) 0.90 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 34.7 51.4

- - - - - - EL6 (20) 0.80 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 79.2

- - - - - EL7 (30) 0.70 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 11.1 90.3

- - - - EL8 (40) 0.60 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 100.0

- - - EL9 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL10 (60) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL11 (68) 0.32 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.77 0.69 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.3210-7 

### Table 10.2

. 7 Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinets (CC

- 2) : Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

CEC

equivalent

energy

use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

EL0 (

- 140) 2. 67 7.1

- - - - - - - - - - - EL1 (

- 100) 2.00 12.8 19.9

- - - - - - - - - - EL2 (

- 60) 1.60 26.6 26.6 46.5

- - - - - - - - - EL3 (

- 30) 1.30 22.1 22.1 22.1 68.6

- - - - - - - -

EL4 (0) 1.00 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.6 88.2

- - - - - - - EL5 (10) 0.90 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 92.9

- - - - - - EL6 (20) 0. 80 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.1 100.0

- - - - - EL7 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - EL8 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - EL9 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL10 (60) 0.40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL11 (68) 0.32 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1. 4 5 1.41 1.33 1.19 0.98 0.89 0.80 0. 70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32



### Table 10.2

. 8 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators ( NCR ): Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

baseline

energy

use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 90.5

- - - - - - - - EL1 (5) 0.95 9.5 100.0

- - - - - - - EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - - EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - EL6 (30) 0. 70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL8 (36) 0.64 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.6410-8 

### Table 10.2

. 9 Thermoelectric Refrigerators ( NCR

- 1 ) : Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

baseline

energy

use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 100.0

- - - - - - - - EL1 (5) 0.95 0.0 100.0

- - - - - - - EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - - EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - EL6 (30) 0. 70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL8 (36) 0.64 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64



### Table 10.2

. 10 Absorption Refrigeration Products ( NCR

- 2 ) : Efficiency Distributions for

Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

baseline

energy

use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 0.0

- - - - - - - - EL1 (5) 0.95 100 .0 100.0

- - - - - - - EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - - EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - EL6 (30) 0. 70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL8 (36) 0.64 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0. 95 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.6410-9 

### Table 10.2

. 11 Portable Ice Makers (IM

- P) : Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

baseline

energy

use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EL 0 (0) 1.00 50.0

- - - - - - - EL1 (10) 0.90 0.0 50.0

- - - - - - EL2 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - - - - EL3 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - - - EL4 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - - EL5 (50) 0.50 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - EL6 (60) 0. 40 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- EL7 (65) 0.35 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 5 0.0 100 .0

SWEUF 0. 67 0. 62 0. 57 0. 52 0. 47 0. 42 0. 37 0. 3 5



### Table 10.2

. 12 Non

- Portable Ice Makers, Cooled

- Storage (IM

- C) : Efficiency Distributions

for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

baseline

energy

use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6

EL 0 ( 0) 1.00 50.0

- - - - - - EL1 (5) 0.95 0.0 5 0.0

- - - - - EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 5 0.0

- - - - EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0

- - - EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0

- - EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 0.0

- EL6 (26) 0. 74 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.87 0. 8 5 0.82 0. 80 0.77 0. 7 5 0.7 510-10 

### Table 10.2

. 13 Non

- Portable Ice Makers, Uncooled

- Storage (IM

- U ) : Efficiency Distributions

for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

baseline

energy

use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

EL0 (0) 1.00 50.0

- - - - - - - - EL1 (5) 0.95 0.0 50.0

- - - - - - - EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - - - - - EL3 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - - - - EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - - -

EL5 (25) 0.75 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - - EL6 (30) 0. 70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- - EL7 (35) 0.65 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0

- EL8 (37) 0.63 50.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 5 0.0 50.0 100.0

SWEUF 0. 81 0.7 9 0.76 0. 7 4 0.71 0.6 9 0. 66 0. 6 4 0. 6 3



### Table 10.2

. 14 Standard

- Size Built

- I n Hybrid All

- Refrigerator ( H

- 3A

- BI ) : Efficiency

Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

2014

refrigerator

standard

energy use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4

EL0 (

- 60) 1.60 80 .0

- - - - EL1 (

- 30) 1.30 20 .0 100.0

- - -

EL2 (0) 1.00 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL3 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL4 (15) 0.85 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1. 54 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.8510-11 

### Table 10.2

. 15 Compact Hybrid All

- Refrigerator with Manual Defrost ( H

- 11A) : Efficiency

Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

2014

refrigerator

standard

energy use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EL0 (

- 60) 1.60 43.0

- - - - - - - EL1 (

- 30) 1.30 57.0 100.0

- - - - - -

EL2 (0) 1.00 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - EL3 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - -

EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - EL5 (30) 0.7 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL6 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL7 (45) 0.55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.4 3 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.7 0 0.60 0.55



### Table 10.2

. 16 Compact Hybrid All

- Refrigerator with Automatic Defrost (H

- 13A) :

Efficiency Distributions for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

2014

refrigerator

standard

energy use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

EL0 (

- 60) 1.60 4 0 .0

- - - - - - - EL1 (

- 30) 1.30 60 .0 100.0

- - - - - -

EL2 (0) 1.00 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - - EL3 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - - - EL4 (20) 0.80 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - -

EL5 (30) 0.70 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- - EL6 (40) 0.60 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

- EL7 (45) 0.55 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 1.42 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.5510-12 

### Table 10.2

. 17 Standard

- Size Built

- In Hybrid Freezer ( H

- 9I

- BI ) : Efficiency Distributions

for Standards Cases

Efficiency

Level (%

less than

2014

refrigerator

standard

energy use ) Energy

Use

Factor Market Share %

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4

EL0 (0) 1.00 0 .0

- - - - EL1 (5) 0.95 0 .0 0.0

- - - EL2 (10) 0.90 0.0 0.0 0.0

- - EL3 (15) 0.85 6 0.0 6 0.0 6 0.0 60.0

- EL4 (20) 0.80 4 0.0 4 0.0 4 0.0 4 0.0 100.0

SWEUF 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.80



### 10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVI NGS

DOE calculated the national energy savings associated with the difference between the

base case and the case associated with each potential standard for the miscellaneous refrigeration

products considered herein. DOE calculated cumulative energy savings th roughout the forecast

period, which extends from 20 2 1 to 20 50

.

10.3.1 Definition

The following equation shows that DOE calculated annual NES as the difference between

two projections: a base case (without new standards) and a standards case. Positive values of

NES represent energy savings (that is, national annual energy consumption (AEC) under a

standard is less than in the base case).

STD _ BASE y 

### AEC AEC NES

=

Cumulative energy savings are the sum of annual national energy savings throughout the

forecast period, which extends from the assumed effective date of new standards (20 2 1) to 30

years after that date ( through 20 50 ).

DOE calculated the national annual site energy consumption by multiplying the number

or stock of each product class (by vintage) by its unit energy consumption (UEC; also by

vintage). The calculation of national annual energy consumption is represented by the following

equation.10-13 

# ∑ × = V V y 

### UEC STOCK AEC

DOE defined the quantities for the above expressions as follows.

AEC = national annual energy consumption each year in quadrillion British thermal units

(quads), summed over vintages of the product stock, STOCK V 

### , NES

= annual national energy savings (quads)

, STOCK V 

### = stock of product (millions of units) of vintage V that survive in t he year for which

DOE calculated annual energy consumption

, UEC V 

### = annual energy consumption per product in kilowatt

- hours (kWh)

, V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit

, and

y = year in the forecast.

Electricity consumption is converted from site energy to source energy (quads) by

applying a time

- dependent conversion factor.

The stock of a product depends on annual shipments and the lifetime of the product. As

described in chapter 9, DOE projected product shipments under the b ase case and the standards

cases. DOE projected that shipments under the standards cases would be slightly lower than

under the base case, because DOE believes that the higher purchase cost of more

- efficient

products would cause some consumers to forego pu rchasing new products.

To avoid including savings attributable to shipments displaced because of standards,

DOE used the projected standards

- case shipments and, in turn, the standards

- case stock, to

calculate the annual energy consumption for the base c ase.

10.3.2 Inputs

The inputs to the calculation of NES are:

• s hipments;

• product stock ( STOCK V 

### );

• annual energy consumption per unit ( UE C );

• national annual energy consumption ( AEC ); and

• site

- to

- source conversion factor ( src_conv ).

10.3.2.1 Shipments

DOE forecasted shipments of each considered product class under the base case and all

standards cases. Several factors affect forecasted shipments, including purchase cost

, operating

cost, and household income. As noted earlier, the increased cost of more

- efficient produ cts

causes some consumers to forego buying the products. Consequently, shipments forecasted10-14 

### under the standards cases are lower than under the base case. The method DOE used to calculate

and generate the shipments forecasts for each considered product clas s is described in detail in

c hapter 9, Shipments Analysis.

10.3.2.2 Equipment Stock

The equipment stock in a given year is the number of products shipped from earlier years

that survive in th at year. The NIA model track s the number of units shipped each year . DOE

assumes that products have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of

survival as a function of years since purchase is the survival function. Chapter 8 provides

additional details on the survival functions that DOE used for eac h product

.

10.3.2.3 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit

DOE used the SWEUFs presented in section 10.2 for the base case and standards cases,

along with the data on annual en ergy consumption presented in chapters 7 and 8, to estimate the

shipment

- weighted average annual per

- unit energy consumption under the base and each

standards case. The average annual per

- unit energy consumption for each product category is

shown in Table 10.3

. 1 through Table 10.3

. 4

.

Table 10.3

. 1 Cooled Cabinets : Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Energy Use for Base

and Standards Cases

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Cooled Cabinets

SWEUF 1. 36 1.32 1.25 1.13 0.96 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32



### Avg.

Energy

Use (kWh) 336 326 309 280 237 218 196 173 148 124 99 79

Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC

- 1)

SWEUF 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.77 0.69 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32



### Avg.

Energy

Use (kWh) 223 223 223 223 223 218 205 184 160 133 106 85

Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinet (CC

- 2)

SWEUF 1. 45 1.41 1.33 1.19 0.98 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32



### Avg.

Energy

Use (kWh) 35 4 343 32 3 290 239 218 195 171 146 122 98 78

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor10-15 

### Table 10.3

. 2 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators: Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual

Energy Consumption for Base and Standards Cases

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8



### Non

- Compressor Refrigerators

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 

### 669 638 605 571 538 504 470 437 430

Thermoelectric Refrigerator (NCR

- 1)

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 

### 672 638 605 571 538 504 470 437 430

Absorption Refrigeration Product (NCR

- 2)

SWEUF 0. 95 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 

### 638 638 605 571 538 504 470 437 430

Table 10.3

. 3 Ice Makers : Shipment

- Weighted Average Annual Energy Consumption for

Base and Standards Cases

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Portable Ice Maker (IM

- P)

SWEUF 

### 0.67 0.62 0.57 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.37 0.35

-

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 

### 173 160 147 134 121 109 96 89

-

Non

- Portable Ice Maker

, cooled storage ( IM

- C )

SWEUF 

### 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.75

- -

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 

### 482 468 454 440 426 413 411

- -

Non

- Portable Ice Maker

, uncooled storage (IM

- U)

SWEUF 

### 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.63

Avg. Energy Use (kWh) 

### 873 847 820 793 766 739 712 685 672

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor10-16 

### Table 10.3

. 4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products : Shipment

- Weighted Average Energy

Consumption for Base and Standards Cases

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

H

- 3A

- BI

SWEUF 1.54 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.85

- - - Avg. Energy

Use (kWh) 517 437 336 302 286

- - -

H

- 11A

SWEUF 

### 1.43 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.55

Avg. Energy

Use (kWh) 364 331 254 229 204 178 153 140

H

- 13A

SWEUF 1.42 1.30 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.55

Avg. Energy

Use (kWh) 442 405 312 280 249 218 187 171

H

- 9I

- BI

SWEUF 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.83 0.80

- - - Avg. Energy

Use (kWh) 415 41 5 415 415 400

- - -

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor



### 10.3.2.4 National Annual Energy Consumption

The national annual energy consumption (AEC) is the product of the annual energy

consumption per unit and the number of units of each vintage. This method of calculation

accounts for d ifferences in unit energy consumption from year to year. In determining national

annual energy consumption, DOE first calculated annual energy consumption at the site

, then

applied a site

- to

- source conversion factor and a full

- fuel

- cycle energy factor , des cribed in section

10.3.2.5 and section 10.3.2.6 , to calculate primary e nergy consumption.

10.3.2.5 Site

- to

- Source Conversion Factors

In determining national annual energy consumption, DOE initially calculated the annual

energy consumption at the site (for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the household or

establishment). I t then used site energy consumption to calculate primary (source) energy

consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for losses associated with the

generation, transmission, and distribution of electrici ty

. Th e site

- to

- source conversion factor i s a

multiplicative factor used to convert site energy consumption into primary or source energy

consumption, expressed in quads (quadrillion Btu). DOE used annual site

- to

- source conversion10-17 

### factors based on the version of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) b 

### that corresponds

to AEO201 4 . The factors are marginal values, which represent the response of the system to an

incremental decrease in consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors change over time in

response to projected changes in generation sources ( i.e., the types of power plants projected to

provide electricity to the Nation ). The values derived from the AEO2014 NEMS end in 2040

. DOE assumed that conversion factors remain at the 2040 values throughout the rest of the

forecas t.

10.3.2.6 Fu ll

- Fuel

- Cycle Energy Factors

The full

- fuel

- cycle (FFC) measures point

- of

- use (site) energy; the energy losses

associated with generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; and the energy

consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing primary fuels. To calculate

the FFC by incorporating the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and transporting or

distributing primary fuels, referred to as upstream activities, DOE developed FFC multipliers

using the data and projectio ns generated by the NEMS used for AEO 2014 . The AEO 2014

provides extensive information about the energy system, including projections of future oil,

natural gas, and coal supplies; energy use for oil and gas field and refinery operations; and fuel

consump tion and emissions related to electric power production. This information can help

define a set of parameters that represents the energy intensity of energy production.

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE

DOE calculated the NPV of the increased product cost and reduced op erating cost

associated with the difference between the base case and each potential standards case for the

considered miscellaneous refrigeration products.

10.4.1 Definition

The NPV is the value in the present of a time

- series of costs and savings. The NPV is

described by the equation:



### PVC PVS NPV

_ 

### =

b For more information on NEMS, please refer to the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information

Administration documentation. A useful summary is National Energ y Modeling System: An Overview 2000

, DOE/EIA

- 0581(2000), March 2000. EIA approves use of the name NEMS to describe only an official version of the

model without any modification to code or data. Because this analysis entails some minor code modifications a nd

the model is run under various policy scenarios that are variations on EIA assumptions, DOE refers to the model by

the name NEMS

- BT (BT is DOE’s Building Technologies Program, under whose aegis this work has been

performed). NEMS

- BT was previously calle d NEMS

- BRS.10-18 

### Where:

PVS

= present value of savings in operating cost, and

PVC

= present value of increased total product cost to consumers.

DOE determined the PVS and PVC according to the following expressions.



# ∑

y y 

### DF OCS PVS × =



# ∑

y y 

### DF TIC PVC × =



### Where:

OCS = total annual savings in operating cost each year summed over vintages of the product

stock, STOCK V 

### , TIC = total annual increases in produc t cost each year summed over years of the product

shipme nts, S HIP

y 

### , DF = discount factor in each year

, and

y = year in the forecast.

DOE calculated the total annual consumer savings in operating cost by multiplying the

number or stock of a given product class (by vintage) by its per

- unit operating cost savings (also

by vintage). DOE calculated the total annual increases in consumer product cost by multiplying

the number or shipments of the given product class (by v intage) by its per

- unit increase in

consumer produc t cost (also by vintage). The calculation of total annual operating cost savings

and total annual produc t cost increases is represented by the following equations.



# ∑

V V y 

### UOCS STOCK OCS × =



# ∑

y y y 

### UTIC SHIP TIC × =



### Where:

STOCK V 

### = stock of product s of vintage V that survive in the year for which DOE calculated

annual energy consumption,

UOCS V 

### = annual per

- unit savings in operating cost,

V = year in which the product was purchased as a new unit

, SHIP

y 

### = shipments of products in year y

, and

UTIC

y 

### = annual per

- unit increase in installed product cost in year y

.

DOE determined the total inc reased product cost for each year from the effective date of

a potential standard to 20 50 . It determined the present value of operating cost savings fo r each

year from the effective date of the standard to the year when all units purchased by 20 50 have10-19 

### been retired. DOE calculated costs and savings as the difference between a standards case and a

base case without new standards.

DOE develop ed a discou nt factor from the national discount rate and the number of years

between the present ( i.e. , year to which the sum is being discounted) and the year in which the

costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum over time of the discounted net savings.

10.4.2 Inputs

T he inputs to calculation of the NPV are:

• a verage annual product cost;

• average annual sav ings in operating cost ;

• total annual increases in product cost;

• total annual savings in operating cost;

• discount factor;

• present value of costs; and

• present value of savings.

The increase in total annual product cost is equal to the annual change in the average

annual product cost (difference between base case and standards case) multiplied by the

shipments forecasted in the standards case. As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not

calculate total annual product costs using base

- case shipments. To avoid including savings due to

displaced shipments (by consumers deciding not to buy higher

- cost products), DOE used the

standards

- case projection of shipments and, in turn, the standards

- case stock, to calculate product

costs.

The total annual savings in operating cost are equal to the change in annual operating cost

(difference between base case and standards case) per unit multiplied by the shipments

forecasted in the standards case.

10.4.2.1 Average Annual Installed Price

The average annual installed price is directly dependent on efficiency. DOE therefore

used the efficiency distributions presented in section 10.2.1.2 for the base case and each

standards case, along with the product costs at various EL s ( presented in chapter 8), to estimate

the weighted average annual installed price under the base and standards cases

. As menti oned in

the introduction, there is no robust incremental cost estimation available for hybrid refrigeration

products; hence, the weighted average annual installed price at each EL was only developed for

cooled cabinets and ice makers. The average annual installed price for each product category is

shown in Table 10.4

- 1 and Table 10.4

- 2

.10-20 

### Table 10.4

. 1 Cooled Cabinets : Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and Standards

Case s

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Cooled Cabinets

SWEUF 1. 36 1.32 1.25 1.13 0.96 0.88 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. Installed

Price (201 3 $) 347 349 351 356 363 368 386 407 425 443 531 615

Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC

- 1)

SWEUF 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.84 0.82 0.77 0.69 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. Installed

Price ( 2013$ ) 587 587 587 587 587 589 596 610 630 652 761 866

Thermoelectric Cooled Cabinet (CC

- 2)

SWEUF 1. 45 1.41 1.33 1.19 0.98 0.89 0.80 0.70 0.60 0.50 0.40 0.32

Avg. Installed

Price ( 2013$ ) 299 302 305 312 322 326 346 369 386 404 487 568



### Table 10.4

. 2 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators: Weighted Average Installed Price for Base

and Standards Cases

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8



### Non

- Compressor Refrigerators

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Installed Price

( 2013$ ) 165 165 165 166 177 185 185 197 207



### Thermoelectric Refrigerator (NCR

- 1)

SWEUF 1.00 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Installed Price

( 2013$ ) 165 165 165 166 177 185 185 197 207



### Absorption Refrigeration Product (NCR

- 2)

SWEUF 0. 95 0.95 0.90 0.85 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.64

Avg. Installed Price

( 2013$ ) 165 165 165 165 177 185 185 197 20710-21 

### Table 10.4

. 3 Ice Maker s : Weighted Average Installed Price for Base and Standards Cases

Base

Case Standard at Efficiency Level:

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Portable Ice Maker ( IM

- P )

SWEUF 0.67 0.62 0.57 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.37 0.35



### -

Avg. Installed Price ( 2013$ ) 212 212 213 214 215 216 216 217

-

Non

- Portable Ice Maker

, cooled storage ( IM

- C )

SWEUF 0.87 0.85 0.82 0.80 0.77 0.75 0.75

- -

Avg. Installed Price ( 2013$ ) 1,119 1,120 1,122 1,124 1,126 1,128 1,128

- -

Non

- Portable Ice Maker

, uncooled storage (IM

- U)

SWEUF 0.81 0.79 0.76 0.74 0.71 0.69 0.66 0.64 0.63

Avg. Installed Price ( 2013$ ) 1,119 1,121 1,123 1,125 1,127 1,129 1,131 1,133 1,134

SWEUF = shipment

- weighted energy use factor



### As discussed in chapter 8, the historical price data specific to miscellaneous refrigeration

product are not available to obtain. Hence, f or this preliminary analysis for miscellaneous

refrigeration products , DOE applied constant price assumption as the default product price trend

to project the prices of miscellaneous refrigeration products sold in each year in the forecast

period ( 2021

- 2050 ). For each type of miscellaneous refrigeration product, DOE also applied the

same constant price trend to project prices for each product class at each considered EL

. To

investigate the impact of different equipment price projections on the consumer net present value

(NPV) for different efficiency levels, DOE also considered two alternative price trends. Details

on how these alternative price trends were developed are documented in A ppendix 10

- B which

also presents the results of the sensitivity analysis.

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit

The average annual operating cost includes the costs for energy, repair, and maintenance.

As described in chapter 8, for all the considered pr oducts DOE assumed that potential standards

would produce no increase in maintenance or repair costs. For all the considered products,

therefore, DOE determined the per

- unit annual savings in operating cost based only on the

savings in energy costs attribu table to a standard. DOE determined the per

- unit annual savings in

operating cost by multiplying the per

- unit annual savings in energy consumption developed for

each product class by the appropriate energy price. As described in chapter 8, DOE forecasted

e nergy prices based on EIA’s AEO 201 4

.

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Increases in Product Cost

The total annual increase in product cost for any given standards case is the product of

the average cost increase per unit due to the standard and the number of units of each vintage

shipped. This method accounts for differences in product cost from year to year. The equation10-22 

### for determining the total annual increase in product cost for a given standards case, which was

shown in section 10.4.1, is repeated here.



# ∑

y y y 

### UTIC SHIP TIC × =



### As with the calculation of the NES, DOE did not calculate total annual product costs

using base

- case shipments. To avoid including savings due to displaced shipments (by

consumers deciding not to buy higher

- cost products), DOE used the standards

- case projection of

shipments and, in turn, the standards

- case stock, to calculate product costs.

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Savings in Operating Cost

The total annual savings in operating cost for any given standards case is the product of

the annual sa vings in operating cost per unit attributable to the standard and the number of units

of each vintage. This method accounts for differences in annual savings in operating cost from

year to year. The equation for determining the total annual savings in oper ating cost for a given

standards case, which was presented in section 10.4.1, is repeated here.



# ∑

V V 

### UOCS STOCK OCS × =



### 10.4.2.5 Discount Factor

DOE multiplied monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the

present value. The discount fact or (DF) is described by the equation:

) yp y (

_ 

### ) r ( DF

+ 1 1

=



### Where:

r = discount rate,

y = year in which the monetary value exists, and

y

P 

### = year in which the present value is being determined.

Although DOE used consumer discount rates to determine t he life

- cycle cost of

miscellaneous refrigeration products (chapter 8), it used national discount rates to calculate

national NPV. DOE estimated NPV using both a 3

- percent and a 7

- percent real discount rate, in

accordance with the Office of Management and Budget’s guidance to Federal agencies on the

development of regulatory analysis, particularly section E therein: Identifying and Measuring

Benefits and Costs

. 2 

### DOE defined the present year as 20 14

.10-23 

### 10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs

The pres ent value of increased product costs is the annual total cost increase in each year

(the difference between a standards case and the base case), discounted to the present and

summed throughout the period in which DOE is considering the installation of prod ucts

( 2021 through 2050 ). DOE calculated annual increases in installed cost as the difference in total

product cost for new appliances purchased each year, multiplied by the shipments in the

standards case.

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings

The present value of sav ings in operating cost is the annual savings on operating cost (the

difference between the base case and a standards case), discounted to the present and summed

from the effective date to the time when the last unit installed in 2050 is retired from servic e.

Savings are decreases in operating cost associated with the higher energy efficiency of products

purchased in the standards case compared to the base case. Total annual savings in operating cost

are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage that survive in a

particular year.

10.5 NES AND NPV RESULTS

The NIA model produces estimates of the NES and NPV attributable to a given

efficiency level. The inputs to the NIA model were discussed in sections 10.3.2 ( inputs to NES)

and 10.4.2 ( inputs to NPV ). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a Microsoft Excel

spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet

< http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/71 >

Details on the spreadsheet and instructions for using it are provided in appendix 10 A

.

10.5.1 Summary of Inputs

Table 10.5

. 1 summarizes the inputs to the NIA model

.10-24 

### Table 10.5

. 1 Inputs to Calculation of National Energy Savings and Net Present Value

Input Description

Shipments Annual shipments from shipments model. (See chapter 9.)

Compliance date of standard 20 21

.

Base

- case forecasted efficiencies See section 10.2.

Standards

- case efficiencies See section 10.2.

Annual energy consumption per unit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of SWEUF.

(See section 10.3.2. 3 .)

Total installed cost per unit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of the

efficiency distribution. (See section 10.4.2.1.)

Energy cost per unit Annual weighted

- average values are a function of annual

e nergy consumption per unit and energy prices. (See chapter 8

for energy prices.)

Repair and maintenance costs per unit Average repair and maintenance costs were drawn from a

survey study (See chapter 8 for operating cost inputs)

Forecast of energy prices Energy prices: EIA AEO20 14 forecasts (to 20 40 ) and

extrapolation thereafter. (See chapter 8.)

S ite

- to

- source conversion factor A time

- series conversion factor that includes electric

generation, transmission, and distribution losses. Conversion,

which changes yearly, is generated by DOE

- EIA’s NEMS*

program.

Full

- fuel

- cycle energy factor 

### A time

- series factor that measures the energy consumed

in extracting, processing, and transporting or distributing

primary fuels.

Discount rates 3% and 7% real.

Present year Future expenses are discounted to 20 14

.

* Chapter 15 , Utility Impact Analysis, provides more detail on the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS).



### 10.5.2 Annual Costs and Savings

Figure 10.5

- 1 illustrates the basic inputs to the calculation of net present value (NPV) by

showing the non

- discounted annual increases in product cost and annual savings in operating

cost at the national level for efficiency level 5 for product class CC

- 1 ( vapor compression cooled

cabinet ). The figure also shows the net savings, which is the difference between the savings and

costs for each year. The annual increase in product cost is the tota l cost for pr oducts purchased

each year in the forecast period. The annual savings in operating cost applies to products

operating in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted

savings and cumulative annual discounted costs. Figure 10.5

- 1 shows, as an example, non

discounted annual increases in installed cost and savings in operating cost for product class CC

- 1

at efficiency level 5; DOE could cre ate figures like Figure 10.5

- 1 for each of the considered

efficiency levels for each product class

.10-25 

### Figure 10.5

. 1 Non

- Discounted Annual Increases in Installed Cost and Savings in Operating

Cost for Vapor Compression Cooled Cabinet (CC

- 1) at Efficiency Level 5

10.6 NES AND NPV RESULTS BY ENERGY EFFICIENCY LEVEL

10.6.1 National Energy Savings Results by Energy Efficiency Level

Thi s section provides the cumulative national energy savings full

- fuel

- cycle results that

DOE calculated for each of the ELs analyzed for miscellaneous refrigeration products.10-26 

### Table 10.6

. 1 Cooled Cabinets : Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

- Fuel

- Cycle

Results in Quads

Efficiency Level Cooled Cabinet Vapor

Compressions

Cooled Cabinet Thermoelectric

Cooled Cabinet

CC CC

- 1 CC

- 2

1 0.052 0.000 0.052

2 0.139 0.000 0.139

3 0.292 0.000 0.292

4 0.518 0.000 0.518

5 0.618 0.004 0.614

6 0.733 0.017 0.716

7 0.852 0.031 0.821

8 0.976 0.050 0.926

9 1.102 0.071 1.031

10 1.199 0.090 1.109

11 1.266 0.104 1.162

T 

### able 10.6

. 2 Non

- Compressor Refrigerators Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

Fuel

- Cycle Results in Quads

Efficiency Level Non

- Compressor

Refrigerator Thermoelectric

Refrigerator Absorption

Refrigerat or

NCR NCR

- 1 NCR

- 2

1 0.063 0.063 0.000

2 0.134 0.126 0.008

3 0.204 0.189 0.016

4 0.275 0.252 0.023

5 0.346 0.314 0.031

6 0.416 0.377 0.039

7 0.487 0.440 0.047

8 0.501 0.453 0.04810-27 

### Table 10.6

. 3 Ice Makers : Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

- Fuel

- Cycle Results in

Quads

Efficiency Level Portable Ice Maker Non

- Portable Ice

M aker, cooled storage Non

- Portable Ice

M aker, uncooled

storage

IM

- P IM

- C IM

- U

1 

### 0.012 0.001 0.008

2 

### 0.024 0.003 0.017

3 

### 0.036 0.004 0.025

4 

### 0.048 0.006 0.033

5 

### 0.059 0.007 0.042

6 

### 0.071 0.008 0.050

7 

### 0.077 0.058

8 

### 0.062

Table 10.6

. 4 Hybrid Refrigeration Products : Cumulative National Energy Savings Full

Fuel

- Cycle Results in Quads

Efficiency

Level Standard

- Size

Built

- In

Refrigerator

Cooled Cabinet Compact

Refrigerator

Cooled Cabinet

with Manual

Defrost Compact

Refrigerator

Cooled Cabinet

with Automatic

Defrost Standard

- Size

Built

- In

Freezer

- Cooled

Cabinet

H3A

- BI H11A H13A H9I

- BI

1 

### 0.019 0.003 0.014 0.000

2 

### 0.043 0.010 0.048 0.000

3 

### 0.051 0.012 0.059 0.000

4 

### 0.055 0.015 0.071 0.001

5 

### 0.017 0.082

6 

### 0.019 0.093

7 

### 0.020 0.099

10.6.2 C onsumer Net Present Value Results by Energy Efficiency Level

Table 10.6

. 5 through Table 10.6

. 10 show the cumulative NPV associated with each of the

considered ELs for each gro up of miscellaneous refrigeration products , except for hybrid

refrigeration products due to the reasons mentioned previously

. Results in Table 10.6

. 5

, Table

10.6

. 7 and Table 10.6

. 9 are shown as the discounted dollar value using a 3 percent discount rate,

and results in Table 10.6

. 6

, Table 10.6

. 8 and Table 10.6

. 10 are shown as the discounted dollar

value of the net savings using a 7 percent discount rate

. The results here reflect the default10-28 

### constant price index factor for product costs in 2021 , which assumes the product costs remain the

same as in 2012

.

Table 10.6

. 5 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets , 3

-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Cooled Cabinet Vapor

Compression

Cooled Cabinet Thermoelectric

Cooled Cabinet

CC CC

- 1 CC

- 2

Billion 201 3 dollars

1 

### 0.278 0.000 0.278

2 

### 0.743 0.000 0.743

3 

### 1.559 0.000 1.559

4 

### 2.762 0.000 2.762

5 

### 3.278 0.000 3.278

6 

### 3.026 0.019 3.007

7 

### 2.629 0.016 2.613

8 

### 2.485

- 0.024 2.509

9 

### 2.337

- 0.068 2.405

10



### - 1.953

- 0.889

- 1.064

11



### - 5.985

- 1.664

- 4.32010-29 

### Table 10.6

. 6 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Cooled Cabinets , 7

-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Cooled Cabinet Vapor

Compression

Cooled Cabinet Thermoelectric

Cooled Cabinet

CC CC

- 1 CC

- 2

Billion 201 3 dollars

1 0.118 0.000 0.118

2 0.315 0.000 0.315

3 0.661 0.000 0.661

4 1.171 0.000 1.171

5 1.388

- 0.001 1.390

6 1.226 0.004 1.222

7 0.989

- 0.003 0.992

8 0.875

- 0.029 0.904

9 0.758

- 0.058 0.816

10

- 1.367

- 0.465

- 0.902

11

- 3.345

- 0.846

- 2.499

Table 10.6

. 7 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non

- Compressor

Thermoelectric Refrigerators, 3

- Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Non

- Compressor

Refrigerator Thermoelectric

Refrigerator Absorption

Refrigerat or

NCR NCR

- 1 NCR

- 2

Billion 201 3 dollars

1 0.470 0.470 0.000

2 0.997 0.939 0.058

3 1.525 1.409 0.116

4 1.779 1.635 0.144

5 2.125 1.943 0.182

6 2.649 2.409 0.240

7 2.891 2.625 0.266

8 2.759 2.507 0.25210-30 

### Table 10.6

. 8 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Non

- Compressor

Refrigerators, 7

- Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Non

- Compressor

Refrigerator Thermoelectric

Refrigerator Absorption

Refrigerat or

NCR NCR

- 1 NCR

- 2

Billion 2013 dollars

1 0.208 0.208 0.000

2 0.441 0.416 0.026

3 0.675 0.624 0.051

4 0.775 0.712 0.062

5 0.920 0.841 0.078

6 1.151 1.047 0.104

7 1.245 1.131 0.114

8 1.175 1.069 0.106

Table 10.6

. 9 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers , 3

-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Portable Ice Maker Non

- Portable Ice

M aker, cooled storage Non

- Portable Ice

M aker, uncooled

storage

IM

- P IM

- C IM

- U

billion 2013 dollars

1 

### 0.082 0.009 0.056

2 

### 0.163 0.018 0.111

3 

### 0.245 0.027 0.167

4 

### 0.327 0.036 0.222

5 

### 0.408 0.044 0.278

6 

### 0.490 0.045 0.334

7 

### 0.533 0.389

8 

### 0.41710-31 

### Table 10.6

. 10 Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Ice Makers , 7

-

Percent Discount Rate

Efficiency Level Portable Ice Maker Non

- Portable Ice

M aker, cooled storage Non

- Portable Ice

M aker, uncooled

storage

IM

- P IM

- C IM

- U

billion 2013 dollars

1 

### 0.036 0.004 0.024

2 

### 0.072 0.008 0.049

3 

### 0.107 0.012 0.073

4 

### 0.143 0.015 0.097

5 

### 0.179 0.019 0.122

6 

### 0.215 0.020 0.146

7 

### 0.234 0.170

8 

### 0.18210-32 

### REFERENCES

1 

### U.S. Department of Energy

– Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook

20 10 with Projections to 203 5 . April 2010. U.S. DOE

– EIA: Washington, D

. C

. DOE/EIA

0383( 2010 ).

2 

### Off ice of Management and Budget. OMB Circular A

- 4, Regulatory Analysis

. 2003. OMB:

Washington, D .C. September 17, 2003.

< http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars_a004_a

- 4 >

< http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/inforeg/regpol/circular

- a

- 4_regulatory

impact

- analysis

- a

- primer.pdf >