ERNEST ORLANDO LAWRENCE

BERKELEY NATIONAL LABORATORY

ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT DIVISION, ENERGY ANALYSIS PROGRAM

I CYCLOTRON ROAD, MS 90-4000 BERKELEY, CA 94720

To: Kyle Pitsor and Lake Coulson, NEMA

From: Barbara Atkinson, Diane Fisher, Jiang Lin and Isaac Turiel, LBNL

Re: Response to questions from NEMA

Date: May 20, 1996

Question 1: The data in Tables B.4 through B.6 represent the system shares for three fixture

types for existing buildings in 1992. Note that system shares are weighted by lamp lumen output

and luminaire CU. They are derived from Xenergy audits performed in the years 1990 - 1995, as

described in the draft report on page B-19. These audits are assumed to represent the existing

stock in the COMMEND base year (1992).

The existing building stock changes each year as old equipment is retired , system conversions are

performed, new buildings are added and old buildings are demolished . Tables I and 2 show the

resulting system shares for existing commercial and industrial sector buildings, respectively, for

the period 1995 - 2030 in five year intervals.

The data in Tables B.8 through B. 10 represent the system shares for three fixture types in new

buildings in 1993. These system shares change each year until the year 2000, after which they

remain constant. (LBNL does not have predictions of the ballast or lamp market mix after the

year 2000.) The system shares for 1993 and 2000 are derived from the ballast and lamp market

shares analyzed by the Lighting Research Institute for those years; see page B-22. The

COMMEND model is then calibrated so that the system shares projected for the year 2000 match

those calculated from the LRI data. The equations used in that calibration also produce shares for

the years between 1993 and 2000. The resulting system shares for the years 1993, 1995 and 2000

are shown in Table 3.

Question 2: Throughout the analysis period, when a fluorescent ballast reaches the end of its

useful life, the model assumes that it is replaced by a ballast of the same type (following typical

practice). The exception is when that ballast type is no longer available on the market. This

occurs in the base case in 1991 when the standard magnetic ballast is no longer permitted by the

NAECA standards; when this ballast dies it is replaced by an energy-efficient magnetic ballast. In

the efficiency scenarios, certain ballasts are no longer available; when a ballast of this type dies it

is replaced by the ballast with the next-highest efficiency level.

Question 3: The conversion rates are 5.5 % per year for 4-foot systems, 2.5 % per year for 8-

foot systems, and 7.5 % per year for 8-foot HO systems. These rates remain the same throughout

the analysis period, and they apply to the remaining stock. In other words, in the first year

(1993), 5.5 % of 4-foot magnetic ballasts with T12 lamps are converted to electronic ballasts with

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
T8 lamps, the next year 5.5 % of the remaining T12/magnetic systems are converted, etc.

The system conversion rates were developed during calibration of the model. Using 1992 as the

base year, a forecast for 1993 was performed. Then system conversion rates were used so that

the 1993 predicted ballast shipment data agreed reasonably well with NEMA's estimates for 1993

ballast shipments.

Question 4: One does not expect total shipments to track floor space because shipments are a

result of three factors; they are replacements, system conversions and new construction. What is

expected however (and does occur), is that shipments for new construction should follow floor

space projections. Figure 1 shows ballast sales follow floor space projections for new

construction.

Although floor space growth tends to increase the number of ballasts installed, the shift from

magnetic to electronic ballasts reduces the number of ballasts needed for the same space due to

two factors. The primary effect occurs because the number of lamps per ballast changes: in 3-

and 4-lamp fixtures, two magnetic ballasts are replaced by a single 3- or 4-lamp electronic ballast.

Secondarily, in new buildings, the electronic ballasts are more efficacious, allowing fewer system

to provide the same illuminance. The model assumes that fixture spacing in new buildings is, on

average, flexible enough to accommodate this.

The effect from conversions described in the paragraph above is greater in the early years, when a

larger absolute number of magnetic ballasts are available for conversion. This causes fewer ballast

shipments in these years.

It is also worth noting that the ballast installations reported in Table 5.8 are secondary outputs of

the COMMEND model. They do not directly affect the energy consumption results of the model.

Note that the lighting central energy equation in section B.3.2 does not contain equipment counts;

the number of systems of each type is calculated by COMMEND in the following manner. Given

the other model inputs in the lighting central energy equation (section B.3.2), and the delivered

lumen shares for each system, the model calculates the number of systems necessary to produce

the annual kWh energy consumption from the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 used in the

calibration. The number of ballasts in each system is then used to calculate the overall number of

ballasts reported in Table B.8.

Question 5:

Tables 4 and 5 show market shares for ballast shipments in 1994, 1995 and 2000. Table 4 shows

the market shares in the same format as in Table 4.22. Table 5 shows market shares separately for

4 foot, 8 foot and 8 foot HO systems.

Question 6:

Installed ballasts are not obtained through sampling or a survey. We have calculated installed

ballasts in two ways: one is through COMMEND output and the other is through use of the

Xenergy database. The COMMEND estimation gives 568 million ballasts ( 485 commercial and

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
83 industrial) in the building stock in 1992. Figure 2 shows total ballast stock over the period

1992-2030. Note that ballast stock is not an input in COMMEND and does not directly affect

energy use estimates.

Using the Xenergy database, we estimated that there are 651 million ballasts installed ( 558

commercial and 93 industrial) in 1992. These results were not used as input to the CO MMEND

model.

Question 7:

We are investigating a question that was added to the original list on May 17th during a

conversation between Isaac Turiel and Bob Wisbey. It concerns Table 5.6 which shows EUIs for

the commercial and industrial sectors. For the commercial sector, EUIs are seen to increase

slightly in later years. This is unexpected. It should be noted that EUIs are not an input to

COMMEND.

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
TABLE 1.

system Shares within Fixture Type:

Average Share M

Commercial Sector

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

4-Foot Fixture

SMAG/F40T12 20.7 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG/F40T12/ES 21.1 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG/F40T12 12.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CCUT/F40T12 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC/F40T12 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG/F40T12/ES 13.1 15.1 5.3 3.1 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.8

CCUT/F40T12/ES 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC/F40T12/ES 1.5 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

EMAG/F40T12/ ES/RE 0.0 24.8 32.8 31.5 28.2 1 25.3 22.8 20.7

CCUT/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

ELEC/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 1.9 4.2 5.6 6.5 7.1 7.6 8.0

EMAG/F32T8 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.3 2.4

CCUT/F32T8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC/F32T8/RS 4.3 6.9 8.0 8.6 9.0 9.4 9.7 9.9

ELEC/F32T8/IS 24.1 39.1 45.2 48.3 50.8 52.9 54.6 56.1

Total FL4 100.0 100.0 98.7 99.9 99.9 99.9 100.0 100.0

8-Foot Fixture

SMAG8/2F96T12 35.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG8/2F96T12/ES 21.3 17.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8/2F96T12 17.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8/2F96T12/ES 14.5 50.8 53.0 46.6 40.7 35.4 31.3 28.1

EMAG8/2F96T12/RE 2.1 8.7 8.9 7.8 6.7 5.8 5.1 4.6

ELEC8/2F96T12 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8/2F96T12/ES 7.9 20.6 30.6 39.1 46.1 51.5 55.8 59.1

ELEC8/2F96T12/RE 0.3 1.9 3.9 5.4 6.3 7.1 7.7 8.1

Total FL8 100.0 100.0 100.0 98.8 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.9

8-Foot High Output Fixture

SMAG8/2F96T12/HO 27.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG8/2F96T12/HO/ES 25.2 9.9 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8/2F96T12/HO 11.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8 /2F96T12/HO/ES 4.5 19.5 24.9 26.2 19.7 15.4 12.3 10.3

EMAG8/2F96T12/HO/RE 7.3 26.4 17.5 6.0 4.6 3.3 2.5 2.1

CCUT8/2F96T12/HO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CCUT8/2F96T12/HO/ES 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

CCUT8/2F96T12/HO/RE 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO/ES 21.3 41.7 51.6 62.1 69.6 74.1 77.0 78.9

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO/RE 0.6 1.7 3.3 4.7 5.8 7.0 7.9 8.6

Total FL8 HO 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.1 99.8 99.9 99.9 100.0

SMAG = Standard Magnetic EMAG = Energy-Efficient Magnetic

CCUT = Cathode Cutout ELEC = Electronic

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
TABLE 2.

industrial Sector

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

4-Foot Fixture

SMAG/F4OT12 23.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG/F40T12/ES 24.5 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG/F40T12 12.8 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CCUT/F40T12 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC/F40T12 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG/F40T12/ES 17.8 19.3 7.6 4.2 3.7 3.8 3.4 3.4

CCUT/F40T12/ES 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC/F40T12/ES 1.7 1.9 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4

EMAG/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 30.9 46.7 47.2 44.9 42.2 39.9 37.4

CCUT/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

ELEC/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 1.1 2.7 3.2 3.5 3.8 4.1 4.4

EMAG/F32T8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9

CCUT/F32T8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC/F32T8/RS 2.8 5.4 6.3 6.7 7.0 7.3 7.7 8.0

ELEC/F32T8/IS 15.9 30.5 35.3 37.6 39.6 41.5 43.4 45.2

Total FL4 100.0 100.0 99.7 99.7 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.9

8-Foot Fixture

SMAG8/2F96T12 39.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG8/2F96T12/ES 21.4 22.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8/2F96T12 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8 /2F96T12/ES 12.9 49.8 57.8 49.0 41.8 36.2 31.8 28.3

E4AG8/2196T12/RE 1.6 9.3 11.2 9.1 7.7 6.6 5.8 5.1

ELEC8/2F96T12 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8/2F96T12/ES 6.7 17.2 27.0 35.9 43.5 49.5 54.2 57.8

ELEC8/2F96T12/RE 0.1 1.4 3.6 5.6 6.7 7.4 8.0 8.5

Total FL8 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.6 99.6 99.7 99.7 99.7

8-Foot High output F ixture

SMAG8/2F96T12/HO 21.6 0 . 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG8/2F96T12/ HO/ES 28 .4 4.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8 /2F96T12/HO 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMA38/2F96T12/HO/ES 6.4 24.0 28.3 29.2 21.3 16.6 13.6 11.7

EMAG8/2F96T12/ H0/RE 7.4 28.2 17.4 4.5 3.6 2.7 2.3 1.9

CCUT8/2F96T12/HO 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

CCUT8/2F96T12/ HO/ES 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

CCUT8/2F96T12/HO/RE 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO/ES 22.7 42.0 50.3 61.3 69.3 739. 76.7 78.5

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO/RE 0.2 1.1 3.3 4.6 5.5 6 .5 7.2 7.7

Total FL8 HO 100.0 100.0 100.0 99.6 99.8 99.9 99.9 99.9

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
TABLE 3.

mt re within Fixture Tylpe:

New Construction Sherew

1993 1995 2000

4-Foot Fixture

SMAG/F40T12 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG/F40T12/ES 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG/F40T12 32.3 12.8 0.0

CCUT/F40T12 0.7 0.3 0.0

ELEC/F40T12 11.0 4.6 0.0

EMAG/F40T12/ES 17.6 16.7 1.0

CCUT/F40T12/ES 0.4 0.3 0.0

ELEC/F40T12/ES 6.0 5.9 1.0

EMAG/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 0.0 7.8

CCUT/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 0.0 0.2

ELEC/F40T12/ES/RE 0.0 0.0 10.9

EMAG/F32T8 3.9 5.1 3.9

CCUT/F32T8 0.1 0.1 0.1

ELEC/F32T8/RS 4.2 8.1 11.3

ELEC/F32T8/YS 23.8 46.0 64.0

Total FL4 100.0 100.0 100.0

8-Foot Fixture

SMAG8/2F96T12 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAGB/2F96T12/ES 0.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8 /2F96T12 78.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8 /2F96T12/ES 5.0 40.8 35.4

EMAG8/2F96T12/RE 1.0 6.4 5.1

ELEC8/2F96T12 15.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8/2F96T12/ES 1.0 47.6 53.5

ELEC8/2F96T12/RE 0.0 5.2 6.1

Total FL8 100.0 100.0 100.0

8-Foot High Output Fixture

SMAG8/2F96T12/HO 0.0 0.0 0.0

SMAG8/2F96T12/ HO/ES 0 .0 0.0 0.0

EMAGS/2F96T12/HO 75.0 0.0 0.0

EMAG8/2F96T12/HO/ES 0.0 8.3 36.7

EMAG8/2F96T12/HO/RE 0.0 58.9 4.0

CCUTS/2F96T12/HO 0.0 0.0 0.0

CCUT8/2F96T12/HO/ES 0.0 0.2 0.7

CCUT8/2F96T12/HO/RE 0.0 1.2 0.1

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO 25.0 0.0 0.0

ELEC8 /2F96T12/HO/ES 0.0 11.9 52.6

ELEC8/2F96T12/HO/RE 0.0 19.6 6.0

Total FL8 HO 100.0 100.0 100.0

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
TABLE 4-

Ballast Market Share by Lamp/Ballast System (ref: Table 4.22)

19941 1995 2000

Magnetic Electronic Magnetic Electronic Mag netic Electroni

1 Lamp F40T12 4.3% 0.4% 4.3% 0.3% 3.8% 0.4%

2 Lamp F40T12 20.9% 1.5% 21.3%I 1.3% 20.1% 1.0%

3 Lamp F40T12 3.8% 0.6% 3.6% 0.5% 3.0% 0.6%

4 Lamp F40T12 13.8% 1.2% 3.8%I 1.0% 13.1% 1.0%1.

2 Lamp F96T12 9.9% 2.3% 11.8%1 2.8% 11.8% 3.7%

2 Lames F96T121HO 1.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.2% 1.6% 0.7%

I Lamp F32T8 0.3% 18.7% 0.3% 18.7% 0.3% 18.3%

2 Lamp F32T8 0,4-/. F 3.8% 0.4%I 3.9% 0.5% 4.2%

3 Lamp F32T8 0.1% 4.2% 0.2% 1 4. 0.2% 5.5%

4 Lamp F32T8 0.1% 11.1% 0.1% 11.0% 0.1% 9.9%0

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
TABLE 5.

Ballast Market Share by [.a allast System ref: Table 4.22)

M etic Electronic Magnetic I Electronic Mastic Electronic

4-Foot T12

1 La F40T12 5.0% 0.5% 5.0°/®1 0.4%1 4.6% 0.4%

2 Lamp F40T12 24.5% 1.8% 25.0%1 1.5% 24.5% 1.3%

3 Lamp F40T12 4.4% 0.7% 4.2%1 0.6% 3.7% 0.7%

4 Lam F40T12 16.2% 1.5% 16.2%1 1.2% 16.0% 1.3%

4-Foot T8

1 Lamp F32T8 0.3% 21.9% 0.3% 21.9% 0.4% 22.3%

2 Lamp F32T8 0.4% 4.4% 0.5%1 4.6% 0.6°/a 5.1%

3 Lamp F32T8 0.2% 5.0% 0.2%1 5.4% 0.2% 6.7%

4 Lamp F32T8 0.1% 13.0% 0.1%) 12.9% 0.2% 12.1%

8-Foot

2 Lamp F96T12 80.9% 19.1% 76.3% 23.3% 76.3% 23.7%

8-Foot/HO

2 Later F96T12/HO{ 51.0%1 49.0%1 55.0%1 45.0% 68.8% 31.2%

FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
I

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FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C
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FLUORESCENT LAMP BALLASTS WORKSHOP JUNE 20, 1996 COMMENT 0C