Future Trends and 

US National Security

Lt Col John T. Ackerman, PhD, Editor

USAF, Retired

Col Kathleen Mahoney-Norris, PhD, Editor

USAFR, Retired

Air University Press

Air Force Research Institute

Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama

January 2015
ii

Project Editor

Belinda L. Bazinet

Copy Editor

Sandi D. Davis

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Future trends and US national security / Lt Col John T. 

Ackerman, PhD, editor, USAF, Retired ; Col Kathleeen 

Mahoney-Norris, PhD, editor, USAFR, Retired.

 pages cm

 Includes bibliographical references and index.

 ISBN 978-1-58566-242-5

 1. National security—United States—Forecasting.

 2. Military art and science—Forecasting. 3. Twenty-first 

century—Forecasts. I. Ackerman, John T., 1956– II. MahoneyNorris, Kathleen. 

 UA23.F885 2014

 355’.033073—dc23

 2014016190

Published by Air University Press in January 2015

Disclaimer

Opinions, conclusions, and recommendations expressed 

or implied within are solely those of the authors and do 

not necessarily represent the official policy or position of 

the organizations with which they are associated or the 

views of the Air Force Research Institute, Air University, 

United States Air Force, Department of Defense, or any 

other US government agency. Cleared for public release: 

distribution unlimited.

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Air Force Research Institute
Contents

List of Illustrations v

About the Authors vii

Preface xi

1 Introduction 1

Dr. John T. Ackerman and Dr. Kathleen Mahoney-Norris

2 “Mercenarizing” the US Government 11

Maj Kelvin S. Fan

3 Western Europe’s Future Role in US 

International Relations 39

Lt Col Kelly L. Varitz

4 Accounting for Human Information Processing 71

Lt Col Lourdes M. Duvall

5 Arctic Security: An Adaptive Approach for 

 a Changing Climate 97

Lt Col Christopher S. Kean and Cdr David C. Kneale

6 Catastrophe on the Horizon: Future Effects 

 of Orbital Space Debris 141

Lt Col Jack Donahue

7 Waste to Watts and Water 163

Lt Col Amanda S. Birch

8 How to Fuel the Future of Airpower 193

Maj Yvonne Carrico Gurnick

9 Conclusion 213

Dr. John T. Ackerman and Dr. Kathleen Mahoney-Norris

iii
iv

 Appendix A Isotherm Arctic Map 219

 Appendix B Sea Ice Melting 221

 Appendix C Indigenous Arctic Populations 223

 Appendix D Ilulissat Declaration 225

 Appendix E Maritime Jurisdiction and

 Boundaries in the Arctic Region 227

 Appendix F Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea 229

 Appendix G Applications and Collaboration

 Partners 231

 Appendix H Microbial Fuel Cell Relevance Tree 233

 Appendix I Competing and Complementary 

 Microbial Fuel Cell Technologies

 Biofuels and Biomass 235

 Appendix J Key Microbial Fuel Cell Capabilities

 and Challenges 237

 Appendix K Basic Cost Analysis 239

 Appendix L Microbial Fuel Cells 243

 Appendix M Tech Sheet 245

Abbreviations 249

Bibliography 253

Index 283

CONTENTS
v

Illustrations

Figure

 2.1 Singer’s “tip of the spear” 14

 2.2 PMC personnel in USCENTCOM 23

 3.1 Regional fertility rates 40

 3.2 Changes in working-age populations 42

 3.3 Demographic trends affecting Western Europe 43

 3.4 EU energy dependency 44

 3.5 Scenario thinking process 46

 3.6 Example scenario matrix 47

 3.7 Scenario matrix for possible futures for Western Europe 57

 6.1 Scenario framework example 146

 6.2 Complete scenario framework 154

 7.1 Microbial fuel cell technology overview 173

 8.1 Crude oil imports to the United States 196

 8.2 Aviation fuel traits 201

 8.3 Performance analysis 201

 8.4 Compatibility analysis 205

 8.5 Carbon and cost analysis 206

 8.6 Source analysis 207

 8.7 Storage and transport analysis 207

 8.8 Summary of analysis 208

CONTENTS
vi

Table

4.1 Attributes of humans and machines 74

 5.1 Criteria Matrixs 129

 5.2 Criteria Shortcomings 131

CONTENTS
vii

About the Authors

Lt Col John T. Ackerman, PhD, USAF, retired, is an assistant 

professor of Political Science at Ashford University. Before this new 

position, he was an associate professor of national security studies 

at the USAF’s Air Command and Staff College (ACSC) and the International Security Studies course director for the ACSC Department 

of Distance Learning. A retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, Dr. 

Ackerman has held assignments in intercontinental ballistic missile 

operations and training and has taught professional military education courses to both company grade and field grade officers. Dr. 

Ackerman holds a PhD in political science from the University of 

Alabama and master’s degrees in political science, military operational art and science, and information systems management. His 

research efforts have included exploration into the relationships 

between sustainability and security, the international relations implications of global climate change, and the impact of selected strategic 

trends on national security. Dr. Ackerman is published in multiple journals, including Technology, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Air 

and Space Power Journal, Joint Forces Quarterly, and Journal of 

Peace Research. 

Lt Col Amanda S. Birch, USAFR, is the commander (individual 

mobilization augmentee), 4th Civil Engineer Squadron, Seymour 

Johnson AFB, North Carolina. Colonel Birch is a distinguished 

graduate of the USAF Academy, where she earned bachelor of science 

degrees in mechanical engineering and engineering sciences with a 

French minor. She holds a master of science degree in mechanical 

engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology where 

she was a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow. 

She earned a master of military operational art and science as a 

distinguished graduate of ACSC. Colonel Birch is also a distinguished graduate of Squadron Officer School and a licensed professional engineer. Her previous assignments include expeditionary 

engineering at the Air Staff and Air Forces Central Command; civil 

engineer operations flight commander at Andrews AFB, Maryland; 

chief of base development at Elmendorf AFB, Alaska; and executive 

officer at the Air Force Research Laboratory Munitions Directorate, 

Eglin AFB, Florida.
viii

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

Lt Col Jack Donahue, USAF, is currently assigned as a systems 

acquisition manager with the US Special Operations Command, 

MacDill AFB, Florida. He has served in several space acquisition 

positions, including the Education with Industry Program at Honeywell Space Systems, Inc., Clearwater, Florida, as a member of the 

Space Guidance and Navigation Product Qualification Development Team. He also served as the Delta IV mission manager for the 

first operational, largest-ever Air Force heavy-lift rocket mission 

worth $800 million at the Headquarters Space and Missiles Center, 

Los Angeles AFB, California. Colonel Donahue holds a bachelor’s 

degree in aviation management from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical 

University, a master’s degree in human resources development from 

Webster University, and a master’s degree in military operational 

art and science from ACSC.

Lt Col Lourdes M. Duvall, USAF, is the commander, 6th Intelligence Squadron, Osan AB, Republic of Korea. Colonel Duvall is a 

distinguished graduate of the USAF Academy, where she earned a 

bachelor of science degree in political science. She holds a master’s 

degree in public policy from Harvard University’s Kennedy School 

of Government and a master of military operational art and science 

degree as a distinguished graduate of ACSC. Her previous assignments include unit, wing, numbered air force, Air Staff, and Joint 

Staff positions, as well as serving on the faculty of ACSC in the Department of International Security and Military Studies.

Maj Kelvin S. Fan, Singapore Air Force, was awarded the Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) overseas scholarship and read economics 

at Cambridge University. He went on to graduate with a master’s 

degree in international and developmental economics from Yale 

University. He is a ground-based air defense officer by training and 

has also attended the Air Defense Artillery School in Fort Bliss, 

Texas. His other published articles include “Will China Attack Taiwan” 

and “Social Capital: Cultivating This Vital Element for the 3rd Generation SAF” in the SAF’s Pointer magazine.

Maj Yvonne Carrico Gurnick, USAF, retired, served in the Air 

Force from 1998 to 2009 as a C-130 pilot. Her master’s thesis, “The 

USAF and Alternative Jet Fuel: How to Fuel the Future of Airpower,” was born out of an interest in aviation as well as the environmental, political, and military implications of US dependence 
ix

ABOUT THE AUTHORS

on petroleum. She was honored to receive both the Future Trends 

Studies Research Award and the Lieutenant General John M. 

Nowak Award for Logistics from Air University (AU) in 2009. Ms. 

Gurnick currently lives in Clovis, New Mexico, with her husband.

Lt Col Christopher S. Kean, USAF, is the commander of Detachment 10, Training Support Squadron, for Air Combat Command. He is a senior navigator and flies as an electronic warfare 

officer aboard the RC-135S Cobra Ball, operating out of Offutt AFB, 

Nebraska. Colonel Kean holds a bachelor of science in engineering 

sciences from the USAF Academy, a master of arts in French language, literature, and civilization from Middlebury College, and a 

master of arts in military operational art and science from AU. He 

has served as an exchange officer to the Canadian Forces School of 

Aerospace Studies in Winnipeg, Manitoba, where he was the chief 

of Electronic Warfare Training, and taught French to cadets at the 

USAF Academy, achieving the academic rank of assistant professor. 

Colonel Kean has served, flown, and commanded aerial reconnaissance missions worldwide and is a distinguished graduate of ACSC.

Cdr David C. Kneale, US Navy Reserve, began his military officer 

and naval aviator career as an instructor pilot flying the P-3C based 

at Naval Air Station (NAS) Whidbey Island, Washington, followed 

by a tour as an instructor pilot at NAS Pensacola, Florida, flying the 

T-34C. After a brief stint as an airline pilot and selected reservist, he 

joined the Navy Reserve’s full-time support program. Upon completion of a tour in the C-130T based at NAS Washington, he received his master’s degree via the Air Force’s ACSC 2008–9 inresidence program, during which time this research was conducted. 

He has since served at US Central Command in Tampa, Florida, 

and is currently assigned to US Africa Command in Stuttgart, Germany, 

where he has served as a Joint Operations Center operations officer 

and as a member of the combatant commander’s special staff. He 

hails from South Onondaga, New York, and earned his commission 

and a bachelor of science degree in mechanical engineering from 

the Rochester Institute of Technology in New York.

Col Kathleen Mahoney-Norris, PhD, US Air Force Reserve 

(USAFR), retired, is a professor of national security studies at 

ACSC and currently directs the research program for ACSC’s accredited online master’s degree. She is an international relations 
x

specialist with a PhD in international studies from the University of 

Denver. Her research and teaching interests focus on national security 

issues, civil-military relations, military education, democratization 

and human rights, and Latin American security issues. Dr. MahoneyNorris’s latest publication is Human Security in a Borderless World. 

She has also coedited Democratization and the Protection of Human 

Rights: Challenges and Contradictions, along with various journal 

articles and book chapters. Dr. Mahoney-Norris retired from the 

Air Force Reserve with over 26 years of service as an intelligence 

officer and political-military affairs officer. She is a graduate of the 

National War College with a master of science degree in national 

security strategy.

Lt Col Kelly L. Varitz, USAF, is deputy chair for operations for 

ACSC Distance Learning at Maxwell AFB, Alabama. She assists in 

managing distance learning operations supporting over 11,000 

nonresident ACSC students worldwide. Colonel Varitz integrates 

technical innovations to improve professional military education 

for midcareer officers and civilians. She also acts as an adjunct instructor, advising resident students conducting master’s-level air, 

space and cyberspace power studies. Colonel Varitz entered the Air 

Force in June 1993 and served in various positions in the communications computer systems career field. In 1996 she entered the 

officer corps and has served in a variety of command and control 

and communications information positions at squadron, headquarters, agency, and joint levels. She has deployed in support of 

Operations Southern Watch, Desert Fox, Enduring Freedom, and 

Iraqi Freedom.

ABOUT THE AUTHORS
xi

Preface

The study of the future is always a work in progress as the forecasts and prognostications are never entirely correct or valid.1

 Constant adjustments and refinements to ongoing investigations and 

even new inquiries into fresh and previously undetected topics are 

an integral component of future studies. Nevertheless, the study of 

the future is critical as it helps prepare us for uncertainties, revealing potential challenges not identified before the analytical effort 

began. This type of analysis is particularly valuable when it comes 

to assessing challenges to national security.

The collection of papers in this book represents an effort to address 

a number of current and future trends that have national and international security implications, some of which could adversely affect US 

national security. In fact, the recent report from the National Intelligence Council (NIC), Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, underscores several trends that the authors in this anthology analyze. For 

example, our book includes a chapter that discusses two potential game 

changers from the NIC report—the “governance gap” and the “role of 

the United States”—and evaluates the US government’s use of mercenaries.1Additionally, the chapter scrutinizes an NIC megatrend involving demographic patterns and their potential to create a “demographic 

arc of instability” in western Europe.2

 Another chapter investigates the 

ramifications of the megatrend of “individual empowerment” in complex military command and control environments.3

 Furthermore, 

three chapters evaluate a combination of the NIC megatrend of the 

“food, water, energy nexus” with select game-changing new technologies.4

 Finally, another chapter investigates potentially game-changing 

new technologies in the space realm.5

The authors are military professionals from the United States 

and its allies. They completed their research while students at ACSC 

in either the in-residence or the online master’s degree program.

The student authors come from the US Air Force, the US Navy, 

and the US Army. In addition, an international officer from Singapore contributed a chapter.

These essays were written by Air Command and Staff College students in academic year 2009–2010. They reflect the events and conditions that were current at 

that time.
xii

PREFACE

The editors’ purpose in publishing this diverse analysis is threefold. First, the book would be an excellent reader for any of the 

professional military education schools throughout the Department of Defense and for civilian institutions that offer securityfocused courses. It could be employed extensively in various international security, international relations, war and politics, defense 

policy, military history, war fighting, and, naturally, futures-oriented 

courses. Second, the book is a vehicle to present the top-level 

scholarship produced by ACSC students (and other AU scholars) 

to a wider community; in fact, several of the projects here have won 

research awards. The editors’ third objective in producing this work 

is to stimulate research and discussion of future studies and global 

security issues. The prospect for US national security depends upon 

the type of insightful and far-reaching investigation and analysis 

offered here by the best and the brightest military officers.

Notes

All notes appear in shortened form. For full details, see the appropriate entry in 

the bibliography.

1. NIC, Global Trends 2030, ii, 48–58, and 98–106.

2. Ibid., ii, 20–29, and 98–106.

3. Ibid., ii, 8–14.

4. Ibid., ii, 30–37, and 83–97.

5. Ibid.
Chapter 1

Introduction

Dr. John T. Ackerman and Dr. Kathleen Mahoney-Norris

The study of the future is difficult and dynamic but extraordinarily 

valuable. Multiple forces have significant influences over how the 

future unfolds. Political, social, economic, technological, environmental, and military trends create enormous pressures that drive the 

patterns and currents that shape the future. Even as our world has 

become more complex, the study of the future has become sophisticated, and new methodologies have evolved to help examine, innovate, and evaluate both potential futures and the decisions that will 

impact these futures.1

 Unsurprisingly, some of the new futures 

research methods are highly quantitative while others are wholly 

qualitative. Yet all of the research methods share the same goal of 

expanding what we know about the present to help us understand 

what the future may bring.

The Air Command and Staff College (ACSC) student master’s 

research theses in this book are thoughtful, credible, and, in several 

cases, award-winning attempts to develop future visions. These creative 

future visions offer insights into long-range strategies, policies, and 

plans that will augment and prepare US national security policy for a 

spectrum of uncertain futures. Optimally, these future trends papers 

will essentially “enhance anticipatory consciousness,” and their true 

value will be measured not by how accurate they are but by their 

“usefulness in planning and opening minds to consider new possibilities and changing the policy agenda.”2

 Clearly, the purpose of 

these papers is to help us make better decisions today by enabling us 

to “anticipate opportunities and threats and consider how to address 

them. And strategically it is better to anticipate, rather than just 

respond to change.”3

This volume contains seven ACSC student theses that employ a 

variety of respected futures research methods. Each paper explains 

the method chosen and why it was chosen. Methodologies vary from 

impact analysis to scenario-planning processes to relevance tree 

analysis. All of the papers address a key theme, examining how 

emerging trends will affect the security of the United States and/or 
2 │ INTRODUCTION

our allies. Additionally, a few basic philosophical assumptions that 

permeate most futures research underpin all these cases:

1. You cannot know the future, but a range of possible futures can 

be known.

2. The likelihood of a future event or condition can be changed by 

policy, and policy consequences can be forecasted.

3. Gradations of foreknowledge and probabilities can be made; we 

can be more certain about the sunrise than about the rise of the 

stock market.

4. No single method should be trusted; hence, cross-referencing 

methods improve foresight.

5. Humans will have more influence on the future than they did in 

the past.4

Futures research is part art and part scientific research. Gen John 

Shaud, USAF, retired, former director of the Air Force Research Institute, wrote that “the inherent difficulty of anticipating the future does 

not negate the need to understand the trends that are shaping and 

influencing it. Failing to look forward may prove more detrimental 

than an inaccurate prediction. This is particularly true for the Air 

Force, with its strong ties to technological developments.”5

The important images of the future crafted by the researchers in 

this text can help us deal with the complexity and speed of change 

that render precise decision making more and more difficult. The 

futuristic images offered give us a glimpse into what may be possible 

and desirable and, most importantly, should serve as a catalyst for an 

enhanced security dialogue on how we should prepare for the plausible 

and desirable. 

All of the papers are the product of environmental scanning, which 

has been described as “the practice of searching both the internal and 

external environments of an organization, looking for threats, opportunities, and early warning signs.”6

 We offer a short synopsis of each 

chapter below to spark the reader’s interest and to ignite dialogue on 

the selected research topic. 

Chapter 2 begins the discussion with a topic that has a long, wellstudied, and fascinating history but, simultaneously, a less clear 

future. Historically, mercenaries have been, and continue to be, integral 

to traditional war fighting. The “outsourcing” of combat capability 
INTRODUCTION │ 3

goes hand in hand with the outsourcing of combat support activities 

such as military research and development, combat equipment production, and even food support services. In the United States, defense 

contractors such as Boeing, General Dynamics, and Halliburton have 

financially benefited from recent efforts to privatize many military 

processes. However, a new trend is the development of the modernday private military company (PMC).

The new PMCs have business goals that include not only the more 

traditional development of peacetime-centric hardware/support 

products but also combat equipment, training, and lethal combat 

services. Not surprisingly, the largest employer of PMCs in the world 

is the US government (USG), which has been outsourcing a variety of 

combat requirements. This has resulted in what Maj Kelvin S. Fan 

describes as the “mercenarizing” of the USG.

Fan applies impact analysis research methods to examine the current 

and future growth of mercenaries into a global business phenomenon. He approaches this impact analysis from a unique angle as he 

does not investigate the cost-effectiveness, lethality, or overall legality 

of modern PMCs. Instead, he qualitatively investigates the potential 

effect PMCs are having—and could continue to have—on US national 

security. He adopts a position that if the new PMCs serving the USG 

are left unregulated, they will have a negative effect not only on the 

ability of the US security establishment to attain critical defense strategy 

objectives but also on the US ability to promote freedom abroad, 

establish justice and human dignity, and support the spread of democracy internationally.

Fan supports his thesis with three main arguments. First, he admits 

that military privatization is not new but demonstrates that the overall scale and scope are growing briskly. The new PMCs are providing 

more lethal combat services than ever before. Second, as the scale 

and scope of military privatization have increased, many unforeseen 

second- and third-order consequences that could harm key longterm US strategic security goals—and perhaps ultimately overall 

military effectiveness––have also increased. Last, Fan contends that 

the ongoing lack of clear regulatory policies, operational transparency, and firm lines of accountability concurrent with the expansion 

of PMCs into more domestic and international security realms will 

certainly hinder and eventually degrade US national security objectives.

In chapter 3, Lt Col Kelly L. Varitz asks how changes in Western 

Europe’s population and energy security will affect US-European 
4 │ INTRODUCTION

foreign relations. This is her starting point as she scrutinizes the 

impact of increasing energy insecurity on an aging European society. 

Specifically, Varitz explores the dynamics of the “graying” of Western 

Europe’s population and how this change in demographics affects 

jobs, migration, security, and energy demands. Using scenario-planning 

analysis, she identifies key critical trends that currently and/or potentially influence domestic and foreign relations with our Western 

European allies. These evolving trends are the demand for inexpensive 

sources of energy and the integration of migrant populations from 

outside Western Europe into the societies of their new homelands in 

Europe. Varitz’s innovative application of the scenario process enables 

her to envision four plausible futures: (1) the future’s so bright we 

gotta wear shades, (2) we didn’t start the fire, (3) just can’t get enough, 

and (4) it’s the end of the world as we know it.

In each scenario she provides an imaginative and engrossing story 

of what that particular impending Western European future could look 

like. For example, a hypothetical speech by a European prime minister, 

a fictional letter from a German pensioners’ lobby group to the president of Germany, an imagined Wikipedia entry about French economic 

challenges in 2020, and a superbly crafted fictitious blog by a Muslim 

extremist group are all used to generate plausible images of the social, 

economic, and political environment of a demographically and energychallenged Western Europe. All of the captivating scenarios should 

drive debate and foster new ideas over how the future of Western 

Europe could alter international relations and US national security.

In chapter 4, Lt Col Lourdes M. Duvall explores a future trend 

closer to home for US military professionals—the cognitive evolution 

of situational awareness. Her research is an outgrowth of the rapid 

change in military information technology. Particularly, the US Air 

Force is expanding key information technology networks, harnessing 

more sensors, and employing greater computing processing power to 

link, evaluate, and display exponentially more data. Simultaneously, 

the challenges of human-system assimilation become more demanding and complex, such as when decision makers are separated by time 

and/or space from the initial sources of information via automated 

fusion processes.

As Duvall explains, “Removing decision makers from the sources 

of information . . . , if not approached with an understanding of how 

humans form mental representation, could be a limiting factor to 

achieving SA [situational awareness].” This awareness is ultimately 
INTRODUCTION │ 5

critical to success on future battlefields. The abundance of available 

data points and shrinking time lines for making critical decisions 

may force decision makers to use more personal mental shortcuts. 

Thus, they may potentially inject predictable biases into the process 

that could degrade the overall quality of decision making. Human 

cognition lies at the heart of these critical decision-making activities 

that contribute to situational awareness.

In her detailed research, Duvall offers an intriguing hypothesis 

that emphasizing these human dimensions of information processing 

and decision making would greatly enhance prospective USAF command and control (C2) efforts. She asserts that impending C2 operations will be dominated by a demand for more computer support for 

ever-increasing, rapid decision making. Duvall’s research draws from 

illustrative empirical examples of the activities of today’s Joint Forces 

air component commander (JFACC) and the hundreds to thousands 

of personnel engaged in air operations centers (AOC) around the 

globe. Specifically, she sketches the strengths and weaknesses of human 

cognitive knowledge and underscores how improved understanding 

of the principles of human-system interaction affects USAF C2 

operations both positively and negatively. Duvall aptly concludes 

that if the United States is to “maintain and expand our advantage in 

C2, the human aspects of information processing, decision making, 

and human-system interaction must be understood and integrated in 

the USAF C2 vision.”

Chapter 5 moves the focus to the heatedly contested Arctic region. 

The last frontier for exploration on the surface of the planet has been 

the polar regions. These forbidding and unknown areas have only 

recently been reconnoitered by scientists and civilian tourists. Many 

of the polar ecosystems are still underexamined and pristine, but 

that could soon change. Global warming is quickly expanding both 

the temporal and spatial domains that can be safely traversed within 

both poles. In particular, the rapidly changing Arctic ecosystem has 

obvious international repercussions.

Lt Col Christopher S. Kean and CDR David C. Kneale investigate 

the changes occurring in the Arctic region and identify future geopolitical and national security implications of the warming polar environment. Specifically, they note that actions by the Arctic nations to 

claim newly developable natural resources and take advantage of 

freshly exposed sea lanes are having international security consequences 

and are worthy of extensive study. They further seek to ascertain the 
6 │ INTRODUCTION

effect these changes can have on US national security and extrapolate 

potential courses of action that would enhance US national security as 

the transformation of the Arctic evolves. Their objective is to identify 

“solutions to mitigate threats to US national security while balancing 

economic rights and environmental responsibilities.”

Their research process revolves around investigating the environmental, economic, political, and scientific aspects of the changes 

occurring in the Arctic. Kean and Kneale establish a solid analytical 

foundation of contextual factors and conduct an options analysis 

process, comparing current and potential Arctic policies. They next 

measure the efficacy of the options against certain key criteria. The 

evaluation criteria also incorporate many of the most important contextual factors identified during the research process. Their investigation concludes that successful future strategic Arctic policies must 

(1) peacefully resolve territorial sovereignty issues and promote free 

trade economics, (2) mitigate risks to human and environmental 

security in the region and around the globe, (3) provide a long-term 

solution to the sustainable development of the Arctic, and (4) include 

a mechanism for enforcing and monitoring compliance.

The authors evaluate three potential national Arctic strategies 

against the criteria above and find all to be incomplete to address future 

changes. As a result, Kean and Kneale formulate their own creative 

recommendations for a new Arctic national strategy that can bolster 

US national security and meet the strategic policy evaluation end state.

In chapter 6, Lt Col Jack Donahue expands the discussion above 

and beyond terra firma into the spatial milieu surrounding our planet 

as he explores the recent, rapid development of the near-Earth space 

environment. Daily, thousands of satellites used for a variety of commercial and military purposes circle our planet. Satellites now provide 

essential services in such diverse domains as national/international 

communications; Internet access; global navigation; military intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance; transnational commerce/

banking/finance; and worldwide environmental monitoring. Many 

of these services are taken for granted, but today these conveniences 

face a significant threat that is growing exponentially every year.

Keenly aware of the resulting vulnerability to our society’s infrastructure, Donahue thoroughly investigates one aspect of the issue. 

He is legitimately concerned that the accumulation of over 300,000 

small objects (chips of paint or specks of metal), 10,000 objects longer 

than five inches, and over 900 active satellites in orbit around the 
INTRODUCTION │ 7

earth creates the potential for a major disaster in the near future. A 

collision between an active satellite, an orbiting spacecraft, or the International Space Station and one of these objects traveling at approximately 11,000 miles per hour could have catastrophic consequences.

Donahue’s research into this potential threat to life, global commerce, and US national security exposes some interesting trends that 

could determine how the United States effectively deals with the challenge of orbiting space debris. He examines several factors that influence future space development, including space technology innovations, cyberspace vulnerabilities augmented by space vulnerabilities, 

global economic forces, and potential natural disasters. Donahue 

synthesizes these various critical trends, concluding that evolutionary 

or revolutionary advances in space technologies and the probability 

of future space/cyberspace conflict can be the most influential forces 

on how/if the United States overcomes the challenges created by the 

growing amount of space debris. Using these driving forces as a starting 

point for consideration, Donahue crafts four plausible scenarios that 

could impact US national security in the very near future, identifies 

the strategic implications of each scenario, and postulates conceivable comprehensive responses to address security repercussions.

In chapter 7, Lt Col Amanda S. Birch skillfully analyzes trends 

involving two ubiquitous and irreplaceable natural resources and 

succinctly addresses the security implications of the trends. She 

points out that fuel and clean water are the lifeblood of modern society 

and particularly of modern armed forces. No military of today can 

ignore or fail to plan for sufficient logistical supplies of fuel or fresh 

water and expect tactical, operational, or strategic success. Undoubtedly, 

the most advanced militaries are extraordinarily dependent on low 

energy efficiency, fossil-fuel-powered ships, tracked and wheeled 

vehicles, and jet-powered aircraft. All of these vehicles require 

enormous amounts of nonrenewable fuel to effectively and efficiently 

accomplish their missions.

Birch understands the enormous logistical requirements of an agile 

combat force in the twenty-first century and researches one of the 

most difficult challenges facing all combat support planners. How 

can future combat and support forces untether themselves from vulnerable supply lines and infrastructure networks? To this crucial 

question, she precisely applies relevance-tree research methodology, 

investigating the developmental status and utility of microbial fuel 

cell (MFC) technology for Department of Defense (DOD) use in 
8 │ INTRODUCTION

modern austere operational environments. Birch scrutinizes key 

technological, social, industrial, and political nodal links to ascertain 

current and future capabilities and challenges to MFC deployment. 

She also surveys critical nodal links, such as the standing of basic 

MFC research, military utility of MFCs, organizational resistance to 

change, MFC industry standards, and MFC industry tax constraints, 

among others. Birch also examines the development stage of other 

technologies relevant to MFC production, determining the overall 

maturity level of this emerging new technology. She evaluates these 

factors to determine how they would impact research, development, 

and deployment of MFCs across a broad spectrum of uses and users. 

For instance, she inspects the efficacy of MFCs for homeland security 

missions and for use in domestic and international disaster response. 

Paradoxically, Birch’s findings not only span current and future US 

military logistical requirements but also expand into international 

relations and foreign assistance domains. Overall, she finds broad applicability of capabilities that could make MFCs a force multiplier in 

both military and diplomatic applications.

While Birch’s intriguing chapter investigates an alternative energy 

technology that has tactical, operational, and strategic security implications, chapter 8 provides an equally stimulating investigation into 

alternative energy sources that has national and specifically Air 

Force–wide tactical, operational, and strategic security ramifications. 

Maj Yvonne Gurnick documents that the future reliability of fossilfuel sources and their global supply are diminishing rapidly and that, 

as a result, the dependability of these energy sources is fraught with 

uncertainties. The ensuing economic, technological, and military 

security concerns have raised the issue of energy sustainment to the 

highest levels of national security deliberations. Of note, the United 

States is the largest consumer of fossil fuels in the world; the DOD is 

the largest fossil-fuel consumer in the US government, and the USAF 

is the largest consumer in the DOD. Additionally, recent price volatility 

for oil and natural gas supplies creates huge repercussions for DOD 

and USAF operational budgets. Clearly, future energy insecurity is an 

impending national security challenge.

In partial response to this challenge, Gurnick thoroughly investigates three alternative fuels that may meet the USAF’s aviation fuel 

requirements. She examines natural-gas-to-liquid (GTL), coal-to-liquid 

(CTL), and biofuel-from-algae technologies with an eye to their ability 

to replace current aviation fuels. She evaluates the alternative fuels 
INTRODUCTION │ 9

across six critical aviation fuel characteristics to determine their suitability: performance capabilities, energy content, compatibility (with 

all USAF aircraft), low cost/low carbon manufacturing, source (renewable and sustainable), and storage/transport requirements. While all 

three of the alternative fuels meet the necessary performance, energy 

content, compatibility, storage, and transport requirements, not all 

measure up in other essential evaluation categories. Gurnick’s conclusions and recommendations offer a clear path to greater energy 

security, especially in relation to the roles and functions the USAF 

provides in support of US national security.

Topics in this text are as varied as the methodologies and range 

from how we will fight in the near future, to where there will be conflict, to how we will process information about the conflict. The 

methodologies employed vary from impact analysis to scenarios of 

plausible futures. The conclusions are also unique, provocative, and 

insightful. As will become evident, the intent of this edited collection 

on future trends is to stimulate more discussion, dialogue, and research. 

Many Air Force officers are in the enviable position of possessing the 

technical expertise and intellectual skills to advance this research, 

especially when having the advantage of pursuing professional military 

education. We hope that this outstanding selection of research projects 

will stimulate enhanced situational awareness—especially the type 

of substantive thinking necessary to succeed in an uncertain future.

Notes

1. Glenn, “Introduction to the Futures Research Methods Series,” 3.

2. Ibid., 4.

3. Ibid.

4. Ibid., 6.

5. Shaud, Air Force Strategic Study 2020–2030, 2.

6. Gordon and Glenn, “Environmental Scanning,” 1.

Chapter 2

“Mercenarizing” the US Government

Maj Kelvin S. Fan

The use of mercenaries to fight wars is an age-old tradition. Military outsourcing of research and development (R&D), hardware production, and support services to private companies such as Boeing 

and Halliburton is also not a new concept. What is a fundamentally 

new trend, however, is the evolution of the mercenary into the modernday private military company (PMC), which now provides not only 

peacetime-focused hardware and support services but also wartimefocused combat training and lethal combat services. Currently, the 

biggest employer of PMCs is the US government (USG); the resultant 

phenomenon in which PMCs are increasingly relied on in scale (i.e., 

value/number of resources), in scope (i.e., range/type of services), 

and for their lethal combat services is termed the “mercenarizing” of 

the USG.

Mercenaries have always engendered a certain fascination that has 

continued into their modern-day evolution into PMCs. Over the 

years, this fascination has spawned several Hollywood movies, a deluge 

of literature by academic scholars and fictional writers, as well as 

numerous online discussion forums. More recently, the phenomenal 

growth of the PMC industry into a $100 billion annual behemoth, the 

increasing use of PMCs in the ongoing global war on terrorism, and 

the congressional hearings into Blackwater (the controversial PMC) 

have pushed PMCs into the forefront of political debate.1

 In turn, the 

subject has evolved into a more probing questioning of the true effectiveness and impacts of PMCs.

A significant amount of literature on PMC effectiveness already 

exists, primarily focused on the cost-efficiency, legal, ethical, regulatory, and governance aspects.2

 The traditional story of the post–Cold 

War peace dividend, the privatization revolution, and the changing 

nature of war has led to smaller standing militaries and a greater reliance on outsourcing military capabilities to PMCs.3

 Therefore, military privatization or outsourcing has been argued for primarily as a 

cost-efficient strategy, allowing the US military to concentrate on being 
12 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

the spearhead while PMCs focused on the supporting back-end shaft 

of the spear.

However, this traditional argument does not fully account for the 

dual trends of increased reliance on and the privatizing of lethal 

combat services to PMCs. This study adopts a nontraditional approach 

and attempts a qualitative evaluation of the effect of PMCs on US 

national security in terms of achieving defense strategy objectives; 

promoting freedom, justice, and human dignity; as well as advancing 

and leading democracy. At the core of this study is the underlying 

idea that, if left unregulated, the trend of USG reliance on PMCs will 

enrich the private sector but weaken US national security by degrading US long-term and strategic war-fighting capability, discrediting 

the US stand on justice and human rights, and undermining US international credibility for democracy promotion.

Three key arguments support this thesis. First, while military 

privatization is not a new phenomenon, recent trends point toward a 

fundamental shift similar to mercenarizing where PMCs are increasingly relied on in scale, in scope, and for their lethal combat 

capabilities. Second, while privatization of military functions to 

PMCs can enhance the capabilities of the USG across the range of 

military operations (ROMO), second-order repercussions could 

blunt US long-term and strategic military effectiveness. Third, without an appropriate regulatory framework for greater transparency 

and clearer accountability for PMCs, as well as a comprehensive information campaign, the continued mercenarizing of the USG risks 

enriching the private sector at the expense of the United States’ 

national security interests.

This study provides the background on the definition, evolution, 

scale, and scope of PMCs, as well as on the issues that have been 

raised with regard to their use. It uses an evaluation methodology 

based on available US national security documents to assess the impact 

of the PMC industry. For greater granularity, this study uses case 

studies from the past two decades, including Blackwater’s Nisour 

Square incident and Paravant’s irresponsible actions. The study then 

makes policy recommendations and draws conclusions. By contributing to the growing body of research on PMCs, this study aims to 

provide insights for policy makers in determining how to best regulate PMCs.
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 13

Defining Private Military Companies

Dr. Christopher Kinsey, a noted security specialist, observes that 

categorizing the private military industry is difficult because the 

companies often provide a diverse range of services, catering to a 

range of customers.4

 Indeed, this has resulted in PMCs being called 

defense contractors, private military firms, private security companies, 

private military contractors, security contractors, military consultants, and so on. However, regardless of terminology, these entities 

are essentially private, profit-driven companies that provide military 

and security services to clients, often regardless of nationality. As 

such, the term PMC is used here to encompass any private company 

that provides military-related hardware and/or services that could 

range from support functions such as logistics to frontline operations 

to lethal combat services.

Peter Singer, a Brookings Institution senior fellow, helps provide 

greater understanding of and granularity to the functions of PMCs 

through his “tip of the spear” representation (fig. 2.1).5

 He states that 

PMCs can be seen as military providers, military consultant firms, and 

military support firms, depending largely on the level of lethality provided and the proximity to the combat front lines.6

 Comprising about 

5 percent of all PMCs, military providers such as Blackwater (rebranded as Academi), Executive Outcomes, and Sandline International 

typically engage in frontline tactical operations and actual fighting.7

Military consulting firms like MPRI (now Engility), Vinnell, and 

Armorgroup usually do not operate in the front lines but “provide advisory and training services integral to the operations,” while military 

support firms like Kellogg Brown and Root (KBR) provide nonlethal 

services that include technical support, logistics, and transportation.8

PMCs—The Corporate Evolution of Mercenaries

The evolution of the legitimacy of mercenaries has behaved like a 

pendulum, swinging from general acceptance before the nineteenth 

century to one of abhorrence during the mid-twentieth century before swinging back to one of political acceptance of PMCs from the 

late twentieth century onwards. This evolution of mercenaries into 

the modern-day PMC can be illustrated in three broad stages.
14 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

Military

Provider

Implementation/

Command

Advisory

and Training

Non-lethal Aid

and Assistance

Military

Consultant

Firms

Military

Support

Firms

BATTLESPACE

Figure 2.1. Singer’s “tip of the spear.” (Reprinted from Peter Singer, Corporate Warriors: The Rise of the Privatized Military Industry [Ithaca, NY: 

Cornell University Press, 2003], 93.)

The first stage, spanning from ancient times until the nineteenth 

century, was characterized by the accepted norm of paying private 

foreign soldiers to fight a nation’s war. These private soldiers were 

generically called mercenaries and usually held no loyalty to any nation 

but rather sold their services to the highest bidder. The second stage, 

from the nineteenth century until the mid-twentieth century, saw the 

confluence of “bureaucratization, politicization and industrialization.” This convergence transformed war so that only a nation-state 

could mobilize the entire population and take complete advantage of 

the destructive power of modern weapons, thus leaving little opportunity for mercenary forces to participate.9

 Nationalism was dominant in this stage and culminated in the development of the Geneva 

Conventions classifying mercenaries as unlawful combatants.10

From the late twentieth century onwards, the pendulum has swung 

back to the point where hiring private soldiers is again politically and 

socially acceptable. This third stage is notable for the corporatization 

of the mercenary trade. Indeed, many, including Singer, see the 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 15

emergence of PMCs as the corporate evolution of mercenaries. This 

stage is also defined by the increased scale and scope of PMCs’ involvement in both conventional and irregular conflicts across the 

globe, notably Sierra Leone, Angola, the Balkans, Iraq, and Afghanistan.

The Growing Scale and Scope of PMCs

The growth in scale and scope of PMCs in the past two decades has 

been nothing short of phenomenal. No longer perceived in the same unsavory mold as mercenaries, PMCs are now legally constituted private 

companies generally accepted as important components of a nation’s 

fighting force. From constituting only about 1 to 2 percent of US forces in 

Operation Desert Storm, PMCs contributed 10 percent of the fighting 

force in Yugoslavia in 1999. They were estimated to comprise more than 

50 percent of all US forces in Operation Iraqi Freedom.11 From being 

involved in only 15 conflicts from 1950 to 1989, PMCs now operate globally in almost every form of conflict and have increased their involvement to about 80 conflicts from 1990 to 2000.12 From being the individual mercenary soldier of the past who was motivated by cash, PMCs are 

now business-minded entities being awarded multimillion-dollar contracts (for example, Blackwater’s $320 million deal from the State 

Department in 2004).13

Perhaps the most remarkable is the increasing trend for PMCs to 

move beyond providing peacetime-focused functions of logistics, 

consultancy services, and hardware production to providing wartimefocused functions of combat training assistance and lethal combat 

services—responsibilities that the nation’s military services have traditionally monopolized. The classic example is Executive Outcomes, 

which in the 1990s garnered much publicity for its use of lethal combat 

capabilities to quell the civil unrest in Sierra Leone.14 In Iraq, more 

than 13,000 PMC personnel, or 11 percent of the total PMC strength, 

were involved in “direct tactical assistance,” manifested in numerous 

shooting incidents involving PMC personnel.15 PMCs are now fundamentally different from the mercenaries in the past in terms of 

legitimacy, scale, and scope. What remains consistent, however, is the 

underlying motivation of selling military services for profit.

The USG has embraced the growth of PMCs more than any other 

country’s government, as evidenced by Dr. Nicholas Dew and Lt Col 

Bryan Hudgen’s findings that the PMC industry is a “50 percent US” 

phenomenon.16 Security scholar David Isenberg further highlights 
16 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

that while the Department of Defense (DOD) and Department of 

State are the primary users of PMCs, the entire USG, including the 

intelligence agencies and homeland security and energy departments, 

relies heavily on them.17 From 1994 to 2002, the DOD awarded $300 

billion in contracts to US-based PMCs.18 The scale of this privatization has increased, with Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) scholars Dr. Sam Perlo-Freeman and Elisabeth Skons 

indicating that the DOD awarded contracts for about $113.4 billion 

in 2006 to “companies whose services to the DOD appear to be wholly 

or mostly military.”19 It is no surprise that the key beneficiary is the 

PMC industry, with Kinsey noting that several leading PMCs saw 

their stock prices outperform the benchmark indices after the September 

11 attacks.20 As such, what seems to be happening is the mercenarizing 

of the USG in that it increasingly relies on PMCs in scale and scope 

and for their direct and lethal combat services. This trend has 

definitely enriched the private sector, and the question now is 

whether it has also benefited the United States.

Understanding the Rise of the PMC Industry

Attributing the phenomenal rise of the PMC industry to any single 

factor is futile. Instead, the confluence of several factors led to its 

growth. First, the post–Cold War peace dividend, coupled with increasing economic opportunities, led to a winding down of large 

standing militaries and the mismatch of resources to the US grand 

strategy.21 Second, the rise of market-based approaches with promises 

of cost efficiencies led to a privatization revolution that favored the 

outsourcing of governmental functions. Third, the changing nature 

of war—as the revolution in military affairs (RMA) and rise of insurgencies illustrate—led to an expansion of the military’s roles and thus 

greater demand for specialized support from PMCs.

The huge drawdown of standing militaries across the world is one 

of the most obvious trends that resulted from the end of the Cold 

War. As British journalist Tony Geraghty notes, the major powers 

downsized their military strength from 6,873,000 in 1990 to 3,283,000 

in 1997, flooding the private sector with a huge supply of ex-military 

personnel.22 However, the significant downsizing in the US military 

was not accompanied by a concomitant reduction in US military 

demands. Instead, the United States continued its “Cold War 

missions in Europe and Asia” and, ironically, seemed to intensify its 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 17

operations tempo with involvement in Iraq, Kosovo, and the Balkans 

in the 1990s.23 This huge mismatch between the demands of US 

grand strategy and the lack of supporting public resources fostered 

an environment for PMCs to “fill the gap between geopolitical goals 

and public means.”24

The end of the Cold War also coincided with the privatization 

movement, which “provided the logic, legitimacy and models for the 

entrance of markets” into the traditional state domain of military 

services.25 The privatization of military logistics is not a new phenomenon (e.g., George Washington’s Continental Army relied on 

support from various private firms and individuals), but the privatization in the late twentieth century was marked by the emergence of 

large modern corporations that increasingly undertook a wider range 

of military functions.26 In the 1980s and ’90s, the United Kingdom 

privatized the national armaments industry and outsourced military 

pilot training.27 In 1991 former US defense secretary Dick Cheney 

commissioned Brown and Root (later renamed KBR) to produce a 

report examining the benefits of increased privatization of military 

support services such as housing, food, and laundry.28 Those findings 

set the foundation for privatizing regular military functions to PMCs 

and dovetailed into a 1995 Defense Science Board report suggesting 

that the Pentagon could save the United States $12 billion annually if 

it privatized all support functions except actual combat.29

As the privatization of military services gained traction, the Pentagon’s contracted workforce exceeded its own civilian employees for 

the first time in 2001.30 Further testimony to the heavy reliance on 

privatization came when Cheney, then chairman of Halliburton, 

mentioned that “the first person to greet our soldiers as they arrive in 

the Balkans, and the last one to wave goodbye is one of our [Halliburton] 

employees.”31 The privatization revolution has therefore created “a 

greater acceptance of outsourcing of government activities to the 

private sector,” thus legitimizing the PMC industry.32

The changing nature of warfare in the past few decades has also 

played an increasingly important role in sustaining the rise of PMCs. 

First, former defense secretary Donald Rumsfeld, a strong RMA 

advocate, instituted a strategy to transform the US military into a 

lean outfit that relied heavily on technology and information superiority for its asymmetric advantages. However, as Kinsey mentions, 

“maintaining this sophisticated technology requires a level of expertise beyond that which is taught in the military.”33 Essentially, the 
18 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

move toward high technology and information dominance indirectly 

created a demand for complex technical expertise and logistical support that have been best filled by PMCs.34

Second, the changing nature of warfare, as evidenced by the insurgencies in Iraq and Afghanistan, has shown that irregular warfare 

will likely be the focus in the future. The nature of irregular warfare is 

such that specialized skills like country experts, linguists, bodyguards, and desert guides are required to support US personnel. 

Counterinsurgency operations also require huge security forces to 

protect against guerrilla and terrorist attacks, as well as trainers to 

enhance the capabilities of the host nation. More nimble than bureaucratic militaries, PMCs have been faster in adapting to provide such 

specialized services in counterinsurgencies, as evidenced by the 

180,000 PMC personnel in Iraq in 2007 compared to just 160,000 US 

troops.35 As such, it can be argued that the changing focus toward 

irregular warfare indirectly increased the demands for specialized 

skills from PMCs.

Looking ahead, the trends of the US strategy-resource mismatch, 

privatization, and the changing nature of warfare show no significant 

signs of abating. First, the United States continues to be involved 

heavily in Iraq and Afghanistan, but Iran and North Korea are already 

emerging to be the next hot spots. The demands on the United States 

and its military are therefore unlikely to ease. Second, while the idea 

of privatization might have lost some luster given the partial nationalization of banks in 2008–9, the fundamental idea of a lean government and a strong private economy still holds firm among the general 

public. Third, while al-Qaeda has been largely disrupted, trannational terrorism and insurgencies are likely to be threats for a long 

time given the protean nature of terrorists and the numerous weak 

and failing states. Fourth, PMCs are “the new reality, not only in foreign 

policy in the twenty-first century, but also of war fighting.”36 Indeed, 

the public has become so accustomed to minimal troop loss that 

some security commentators argue that PMCs will increasingly be 

used in the future to mitigate the public’s concern about national 

military troop losses.37 However, while the trends point toward the 

continued reliance on and growth of PMCs, Pres. Barack Obama decided 

to make the PMC industry more transparent and accountable, as evidenced by the congressional hearings on Blackwater and the PMC 

industry as a whole. How his actions might impact the PMC industry 

in the future remains to be seen.
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 19

Concerns Surrounding PMCs

The phenomenal growth of PMCs and burgeoning reliance on 

them to provide military services to governments have spawned several 

studies. Issues often discussed include the cost effectiveness, legal 

ambiguity, and ethical debates surrounding PMCs. Military privatization advocates “contend that the private sector is more cost-effective 

than the public sector.”38 While several reports, such as the 1995 

Defense Science Board report, claim that privatization will yield tremendous savings, a survey of literature reveals that a preponderance 

of commentators such as Isenberg, Perlo-Freeman, and Skons are unwilling to accept wholeheartedly the claim that “outsourcing brings 

greater efficiency and lower cost.”39 Specifically, Perlo-Freeman and 

Skons use the economics theory to argue that privatization benefits 

accrue with “meaningful competition, a clear perception of requirements by the contracting authority, and effective monitoring and 

oversight by the client.”40 They contend that outsourcing to PMCs 

might not yield the expected gains because the PMC industry is dominated by a few major players with a general lack of contract oversight 

staff.41 In a similar vein, Kinsey highlights that the privatization argument only works when there is transparent, competitive bidding of 

contracts; however, studies show that only 40 percent of outsourcing 

contracts are subject to open, competitive bidding.42 The cost-effectiveness 

benefits of PMCs are therefore contentious at best.

Another controversial issue is the legal ambiguity of PMCs. As 

Kinsey notes, “The very narrow definition of mercenary found in the 

1977 Additional Protocols I and II to Article 47 of the Geneva Convention (1949) and the International Convention against the Recruitment, 

Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries (1989) have made it easy 

for mercenaries, let alone PMCs, to avoid meeting the full criteria of 

the definition and thus prosecution.”43 PMC personnel are not treated 

as unlawful combatants, but are they afforded the same legal protection and subjected to prosecution as regular soldiers in a nation’s 

military? Illustrating this ambiguity, Perlo-Freeman and Skons reveal 

that “the US Congressional Research Service found in 2007 that some 

contractors operating for the US Departments of Defense or State in 

Iraq—which had been granted immunity from prosecution in Iraqi 

courts—might not come under the jurisdiction of US civil or military 

courts.”44 The growth of PMCs has clearly outpaced the accompanying 
20 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

legal interpretation, and this legal ambiguity has plagued the treatment of several PMC infractions.

A third set of concerns questions the ethical aspects of using PMCs. 

The traditional notion has been that only nation-states “have the exclusive legitimacy to exercise violence.”45 Therefore, security commentator 

Herbert Wulf argues that rampant outsourcing to PMCs threatens the 

state’s monopoly on sanctioned violence and could lead to ethical and 

accountability issues.46 It can also be argued that using PMCs to meet 

the United States’ grand strategy is essentially circumventing the 

citizenry’s desires as manifested in the publicly approved size and resources of the military. The fundamental question here is, how ethical 

is it for governments to privatize the use of violence to profit-driven 

PMCs that are not as accountable to the public?

The Evaluation Methodology

The earlier literature review has shown that several academics 

have raised controversial issues regarding the use of PMCs: Are they 

cost effective? Are they accountable? What are their legal statuses? 

What are the ethical impacts of using PMCs? Despite the many years 

of using PMCs, the House Committee on Oversight and Government 

Reform delineated in a February 2007 congressional hearing that 

“there has been no comprehensive assessment of the quality of the 

work done by private security contractors.”47 In this regard, the study 

lays no claim to be comprehensive but seeks to develop a macroevaluation framework that assesses the PMC industry’s repercussions 

for US national security. After all, national security is what Clausewitz 

would argue that all military action should contribute toward. To this 

end, this section develops a set of national security criteria based on 

the objectives stated in the 2006 National Security Strategy (NSS) and 

the DOD’s 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and evaluates 

the PMC industry against it.

The NSS emphasizes the twin pillars of promoting “freedom, justice, and human dignity” and promoting and leading a “community 

of democracies.”48 To support this, the 2010 QDR highlights the four 

priority defense strategy objectives: to “prevail in today’s wars, prevent and deter conflict, prepare to defeat adversaries and succeed in a 

wide range of contingencies, and preserve and enhance the All-Volunteer 

Force.”49 These two documents provide an excellent reference point 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 21

for developing a set of criteria against which the performance of the 

military and, by extension, the PMC industry can be evaluated. Synthesizing these two strategic documents, this paper proposes three broad 

criteria for measuring the performance of PMCs: the ability to achieve 

defense strategy objectives; promote freedom, justice, and human 

dignity; and promote and lead democracy.

Evaluation Criterion 1: Ability to Achieve Defense Strategy 

Objectives

The ability to achieve or support the QDR’s objectives is a critical 

measure of performance as they contribute directly to military victory 

and help “defend and advance [US] national interests.”50 Therefore, 

the PMC industry will be evaluated against the four stated defense 

strategy objectives.

First, the PMC industry will be evaluated against its ability to prevail in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, especially in counterinsurgency, stability, and counterterrorism operations. Well-documented 

case studies, such as Paravant’s 2009 civilian shootings and Blackwater’s 

2004 Fallujah incident, are used to provide granularity for this evaluation. The key question here is, have PMCs contributed toward mission 

success in Iraq and Afghanistan at both the tactical and strategic levels?

Second, the PMC industry will be measured against its ability to 

prevent and deter conflict. As part of a multipronged approach, the 

2010 QDR highlights that US deterrence “remains grounded in land, 

air, and naval forces capable of fighting limited and large-scale conflicts” and that there is a need to enhance partners’ security capacity 

through foreign internal defense (FID).51 To this end the key question 

is, have PMCs enhanced the deterrence capabilities of the United 

States and her allies?

Third, the PMC industry will be evaluated against its ability to “defeat adversaries and succeed in a wide range of contingencies.”52 The 

2010 QDR suggests that when deterrence fails, the DOD might need 

to deal with challenges ranging from conventional wars to counterterrorism, counterinsurgency and stability, reconstruction, and disaster 

relief operations. This chapter reviews the PMC industry’s contributions in current conflicts as well as its past performance in Sierra Leone 

and Angola to answer the question, how effective are PMCs across 

the ROMO?
22 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

Fourth, the PMC industry will be evaluated against its ability to 

“preserve and enhance the all-volunteer force.”53 The 2010 QDR seeks 

to preserve “the long-term viability of the all-volunteer force” and 

will “require policies that sustain the rotation base” and “provide care 

for our people.”54 This document assesses the role PMCs play in 

bridging the resource-demand gap that has emerged in the post–

Cold War era and answers the question, how do PMCs preserve and 

enhance the all-volunteer force in both the short and long term?

Evaluation Criterion 2: Ability to Promote Freedom, Justice, and 

Human Dignity

A key objective of the NSS is to end tyranny by promoting freedom, justice, and human dignity. As noted by Richard Fontaine and 

Dr. John Nagl, scholars from the Center for a New American Society, 

the Iraqis and Afghans do not differentiate between actions conducted by US military personnel or by PMC personnel.55 For all 

intents and purposes, these actions are perceived to have originated 

from the USG. The insight is that PMC personnel can behave like 

“strategic corporals” where their actions can affect US national security 

directly and indirectly. Indeed, civilian casualties caused by PMCs 

could “anger the very people the coalition is to protect, fuel the insurgent’s propaganda machine,” and portray the coalition as ignoring 

human dignity and freedom.56 Blackwater’s Nisour Square incident 

illustrates the impact of civilian casualties and the legal ambiguity of 

PMCs as well as helping answer the question, do PMCs behave as 

“benevolently” as the USG with regard to freedom, justice, and 

human dignity?

Evaluation Criterion 3: Ability to Promote and Lead Democracy

The second pillar of the NSS is to promote and lead a growing 

community of democracies. To do so, the United States needs to 

maintain and enhance its international credibility and reputation as a 

desirable democracy. As Isenberg states, “Constitutionalism, transparency and public consent are features common to democracy.”57 US 

international credibility and reputation can therefore be affected by 

the perceived accountability of the actions of PMCs and of the USG, 

as well as by the transparency and regulatory framework of the PMC 

industry. In this regard, DynCorp’s involvement in Plan Colombia is 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 23

used to answer the question, does the PMC industry enhance US international credibility and reputation for democracy promotion?

Evaluating the PMC Industry

Tactical and Short-Term Successes but Strategic and Long-Term 

Concerns

A key question when determining the ability to achieve defense 

strategy objectives is whether PMCs have helped the United States 

prevail in the current conflicts. According to Kinsey and Fontaine 

and Nagl, the ratio of US military troops to PMC personnel has fallen 

steadily from about 50:1 during the first Gulf war to 10:1 during the 

Balkans conflict and about 1:1 in the current conflicts.58 The third 

quarter 2009 US Central Command (USCENTCOM) contractor 

census report shows that 199,706 and 73,968 PMC personnel in Iraq 

and Afghanistan, respectively, were performing a wide range of functions (fig. 2.2).59 Therefore, at the macro level, PMCs appear to be 

heavily relied upon as a critical component of the total fighting force.

Total

Contractors

US Citizens Third Country

Nationals

Local/Host

Country

Nationals

Iraq only

Afghanistan

only

Other

USCENTCOM

locations

USCENTCOM

area of

operations

119,706

73,968

50,061

243,735

31,541

10,036

9,381

50,958

56,125

11,806

35,053

102,984

32,040

51,126

5,627

89,793

Figure 2.2. PMC personnel in USCENTCOM. (Reprinted from DOD, USCENTCOM 3rd Quarter Contractor Census Report [Washington, DC: 

DOD, June 2009]).
24 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

At the micro level, PMCs have registered a track record of mission 

successes and accomplishments. Blackwater, despite being one of the 

most controversial PMCs, has conducted over 16,000 private security 

detail operations without losing a protected principal in either theater, 

successfully worked with US Marines to defend the Coalition Provisional Authority infrastructure in Najaf against a Shia uprising, and 

saved several Marines using its private medical evacuation helicopters.60

PMCs such as DynCorp and Vinnell have demonstrated their 

value in the important mission of FID, training the 62,000-strong 

Afghan police (at a cost of $1.1 billion) and the Iraqi army, respectively.61 The largest PMC in theater, KBR, has also successfully established and supplied the in-theater bases that US and allied troops 

depend greatly on.

There is no doubt about the contributions of PMCs to the current 

conflicts at the tactical level. However, an increasing number of PMC 

missteps threaten to hinder the ability to prevail at the strategic level. 

Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Carl Levin and Gen 

Stanley McChrystal correctly emphasize that the key to prevailing in 

both wars is to win the support, hearts, and minds of the people, and 

one way of doing so is to involve the locals in the rebuilding of their 

nation. However, as foreign policy expert Allison Stanger notes, “Democratization required Iraqization, yet contractors steered clear of hiring 

Iraqi nationals.” This strategic mistake will likely inhibit a selfsustaining prosperous nation.62

In addition, irresponsible PMC conduct can also adversely affect 

US foreign policy. “In the fight against the Taliban, the perception of 

Afghans is crucial,” and any civilian casualty caused by irresponsible 

PMC personnel is likely to erode public support and hinder victory.63

The following case study of Paravant clearly illustrates how irresponsible actions by PMC personnel could harm US national security interests and foreign policy by exacerbating the insurgency and fostering anti-American sentiment.

Case Study 1: Paravant in Afghanistan

On 5 May 2009, Justin Cannon and Christopher Drotleff, two men working 

for Paravant in Afghanistan, fired their weapons, killing two Afghan civilians 

and injuring a third. Then-CSTC-A commanding general Richard Formic 

said that it appeared that the contractor personnel involved had violated alcohol 

consumption policies, were not authorized to possess weapons, violated use of 

force rules, and violated movement control policies. According to the Department 

of Justice prosecutors, the 5 May 2009 shooting caused diplomatic difficulties 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 25

for United States Department representatives in Afghanistan and impacted 

the national security interests of the United States. According to one media 

report, the shooting turned an entire neighborhood against the US presence 

and quoted a local elder as saying, “If they keep killing civilians, I’m sure some 

Afghans will decide to become insurgents.”64

While irresponsible PMC actions can undermine US strategic 

objectives and foreign policy, PMCs can also alter the strategic course 

of the war, endanger US troops, and undermine coalition cohesion, 

as illustrated by the 2004 Fallujah incident. As the House Committee 

on Oversight and Government Reform highlighted, “The Fallujah incident 

was highly publicized and had a significant impact on the course of 

the war in Iraq.”65 Many academics see the insurgent’s attack on the 

Blackwater personnel as a trap where the United States took the bait 

and then retaliated strongly with a widespread military assault, resulting 

in the “bloodiest month for US troops and civilians.”66 The USG’s 

strong response in Fallujah incurred “much casualties and political 

cost,” created more anti-American sentiment, and caused the British 

government to have “deep misgivings” over the US strategy.67

Case Study 2: Blackwater in Fallujah

On 31 March 2004, four Americans working as private security personnel for 

Blackwater, all of whom were military veterans, were ambushed and killed in 

Fallujah while on a protection mission. Their tragic deaths became a turning 

point in public opinion about the war and directly resulted in a major US 

military offensive, which is known as the First Battle of Fallujah. Twentyseven American soldiers and over 800 insurgents and Iraqi citizens died in 

that battle, and military observers believe it helped fuel an escalation of 

the insurgency.68

PMC missteps undoubtedly get more media attention than their 

successes. However, the Paravant and Blackwater case studies clearly 

demonstrate that any misstep can undermine the achievement of US 

strategic objectives. Therefore, in prevailing in the current conflicts, 

PMCs have been tactically successful but strategically inhibitive.

The second question that must be answered is whether PMCs help 

in deterring conflicts. Deterrence is almost impossible to prove, but 

“deterrence is a product of effective capability.” Evidence shows that 

PMCs have substantially increased the capabilities of both the United 

States and its allies.69 First, the PMC industry has always been heavily 

involved and relied upon to enhance the logistics, R&D, and hardware production of US air, land, sea, nuclear, space, and cyber capabilities. Second, the PMC industry increasingly serves as a reserve 
26 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

force that can be flexibly called upon to boost the numbers and capabilities of the standing US military. Indeed, the USCENTCOM report 

highlights that PMCs have boosted the USG’s strength by over 

243,000 in just the USCENTCOM area.70 Third, the PMC industry 

has greatly improved the security capacity and deterrence capabilities 

of US allies through numerous FID operations. For example, it was 

MPRI’s training and modernization of the US-backed Croatian military in the 1990s that enabled the Croats to force the Serbs to the 

negotiating table.71 Therefore, the PMC industry does seem to contribute positively to effective capability and deterrence.

The third question is whether PMCs assist the USG in defeating 

adversaries across the ROMO. The scope and scale of PMCs are “unprecedented in US history” and demonstrate that the PMC industry 

is a critical component of the USG’s total force.72 Indeed, PMCs are 

involved in the full spectrum of operations and have assisted the USG 

in a wide range of missions including major combat, counterinsurgencies, counterterrorism, support, disaster relief, and counterdrug operations.73 Fontaine and Nagl also state that without PMCs, 

the “US cannot engage in hostilities or in reconstruction and stabilization operations.”74

With regard to reconstruction and stabilization operations, PMCs 

have demonstrated immense value by involvement in everything—

training of security forces, rebuilding roads, managing internally displaced personnel, and rescuing people from disaster regions. For example, 

while better known for its combat capabilities, Blackwater performed 

admirably in disaster relief operations in the aftermath of Hurricane 

Katrina. Further, while humanitarian and disaster relief demands 

have increased, the personnel strength of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) has paradoxically fallen from 17,500 

at its peak to slightly above 1,000, according to recent statistics, with 

PMCs undertaking much of the slack.75

In the area of counterinsurgencies, PMCs have not only demonstrated implicit value in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars but have also 

solved several previous counterinsurgency conflicts in timely fashion, 

such as the restoration of state power in Sierra Leone and Angola.76

Case Study 3: Executive Outcomes in Angola and Sandline in Sierra Leone

Executive Outcomes (EO) was founded in 1989 by Eben Barlow, a former assistant commander of the 32nd Battalion of the South African Defense Force 

(SADF). EO provided five services: strategic and tactical military advisory 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 27

services; an array of sophisticated military training packages in land, sea, and 

air warfare; peacekeeping or “persuasion” services; advice to armed forces on 

weapon selection and acquisition; and paramilitary services. Training packages 

covered the realm from basic infantry training to armored warfare specialties 

to parachute ops. In Angola, EO’s combat capabilities were demonstrated in 

March 1993 when they launched a commando assault that successfully seized 

the Soyo oil installation from the National Union for the Total Independence 

of Angola (UNITA) rebels. However, when EO withdrew, the Angolan army 

lost the oil installation back to the UNITA rebels. Singer therefore concluded 

that EO provided the Angolan army with crucial military expertise and played 

a “determinate role” in ending the war.

In 1995, EO was engaged to fight the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) rebels 

and reestablish the government’s control over the economically productive 

parts in Sierra Leone. Within eight months, EO achieved its military objectives, successfully forced the rebel RUF leader to negotiate for peace, and restored peace to the region. Sierra Leone, however, did not retain EO to train 

up its paramilitary forces, and when EO left, the RUF rebels launched another 

coup. This led to the hiring of Sandline International, which performed the 

same missions as EO and successfully ended the coup.77

No one can predict how and when the Iraq and Afghanistan counterinsurgencies will end and therefore the determinate effectiveness of 

PMCs for those conflicts. However, from Blackwater in New Orleans 

to EO in Angola to Sandline in Sierra Leone, history does seem to 

show that PMCs can be a significant force multiplier for the USG 

across the ROMO.

A fourth question is whether PMCs preserve and enhance the allvolunteer force. In the short term, PMC advocates emphasize that 

PMCs enhance the all-volunteer force by boosting the total fighting 

strength of the USG, thereby allowing a more sustainable deployment 

and rotation cycle for national troops. Indeed, the absence of the 

243,000 PMC personnel in the CENTCOM area is not only likely to 

impair the USG’s operational capability but also to undermine its sustainable deployment cycle and require more than the announced 

surge of 50,000 US troops into Afghanistan.

However, PMC critics stress that PMCs could erode the war-fighting 

capability of the USG in the long term by undermining recruitment, 

retention, and the national prestige of serving in the USG. First, Kinsey 

and CNN executive producer Suzanne Simons have pointed out an 

emerging trend of PMCs poaching personnel from the US military 

and intelligence communities.78 This is hardly surprising given that 

PMC personnel could be paid about four times that of an equivalent 
28 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

soldier in the US military.79 The poaching situation in the United 

Kingdom got so bad that the elite Special Air Service (SAS) had to 

allow its soldiers to exit temporarily to earn money at PMCs before 

returning to the SAS.80 The US Special Operations Command has 

identified “loss of qualified personnel to security companies as a 

problem in maintaining its strength.”81 Indeed, most of Blackwater’s 

personnel—including Cofer Black, the ex-director of the Central 

Intelligence Agency (CIA) Counterterrorist Center—were poached 

from both the military and the CIA.82 Poaching from the intelligence 

community in the 1990s also caused the intelligence agencies to lose 

“core capability in some cases by as much as 40 percent.”83

As academic Deborah Kidwell indicates, the unequal economic advantages between national militaries and PMCs “can be extremely detrimental to soldier morale and decrease the prestige of national military service.”84 Therefore, while the PMC industry can enhance the 

all-volunteer force by allowing a more sustainable deployment cycle in 

the short term, the longer-term risks are the hollowing out of the USG 

and the undermining of the prestige of the all-volunteer force.

Isolated PMC Missteps Undermine Freedom, Justice, and Human 

Dignity

Fontaine and Nagl emphasize that “most private contractors appear to make a positive contribution, and to be honest, patriotic, and 

dedicated to the mission at hand.”85 However, it takes just one PMC 

transgression, accentuated by the CNN effect and the insurgents’ propaganda machine, to undermine all the positive contributions. Indeed, several media reports have often painted a poor performance of 

PMCs regarding civilian casualties and human rights. As the Times

highlighted, PMC personnel “are supposed to obey the same rules as 

the military in warning civilian motorists not to approach convoys. . . . 

Protecting convoys requires split-second decision-making. Scores of 

Iraqi civilians have been killed and injured by mistake.”86

Several other documented case studies involving civilian casualties also seem to point to improper PMC conduct. The 2007 congressional hearings on Blackwater concluded that its personnel “shoot 

first and sometimes kill and then ask the questions,” firing first in 84 

percent of its incidents.87 Investigations into the Paravant shootings 

of May 2009 reveal that the Paravant personnel had criminal records 

and “abysmal military records,” which included “assault, insubordinate 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 29

conduct, absence without leave, [and] failure to obey order or regulation.”88 Stanger reports that PMC personnel performing the sensitive 

job of interrogation are being implicated in the human rights violations in Abu Ghraib.89 In the eyes of the local people, the collective 

impact of such damaging publicity is that the United States has lost 

much credibility in intervening to end tyranny.

Of greater concern is the local population’s perception that despite 

these civilian casualties and infractions, justice does not get served. 

The treatment of Blackwater personnel involved in the 2007 Nisour 

Square incident best illustrates this controversy.

Case Study 4: Blackwater in Nisour Square

On 16 September 2007, Blackwater guards shot and killed 17 Iraqi civilians in 

Nisour Square, Baghdad. This occurred while Blackwater personnel were escorting a US State Department convoy en route to a meeting in western Baghdad. 

Blackwater personnel claimed that they were ambushed and thus responded 

lawfully with gunfire. However, the Iraqi authorities concluded that the Blackwater personnel fired on the civilians without provocation. While the Iraqi 

authorities wanted to try the case in Iraq, the US House, on 4 October 2007, 

passed a bill making all PMC personnel in combat zones subject to the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act and thus prosecution by US courts. In 

December 2008, five Blackwater personnel were therefore indicted in the 

United States on manslaughter and weapons charges accusing them of killing 

and injuring unarmed civilians. Charges were initially dropped in January 

2010 due to a technicality but a US appeals court reinstated the criminal 

charges and the case is still under adjudication.90

Not surprisingly, the Nisour Square incident created much antiAmerican sentiment and greatly discredited the US justice system. 

The apparent nonchalant attitude toward human rights and civilian 

casualties, as well as the seemingly above-the-law treatment received 

by PMCs, has not only outraged the people whom the coalition is trying 

to win over but has also undermined the credibility of the US justice 

system that the USG wants to promote in Iraq. Therefore, while the 

majority of PMC actions have contributed positively to the mission 

and are largely well intentioned, just one PMC misstep undermines 

the promotion of freedom, justice, and human dignity.

Accountability and Transparency Issues Undermine US 

International Credibility

The accountability of PMCs and the USG is often called into question 

because PMCs are inherently profit motivated and act as an additional 
30 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

layer between the government and the public. While the USG is accountable to the public and national interests via Congress and the Constitution, PMCs are private entities that must account for shareholders’ 

interests. PMC personnel are also not in the chain of command and 

hence not subject to the same discipline that governs national 

troops.91 As Singer reveals, while national soldiers are prevented from 

desertion, treason, and revolt by a combination of patriotism and a 

fear of prosecution, PMC infractions constitute only a breakage of a 

commercial contract.92 The alignment of privately accountable PMCs 

to national interests is therefore not straightforward.

More concerning is that by privatizing military functions to publicly 

unaccountable PMCs, the USG is essentially circumventing “timetested congressional and public reviews that are integral to the democratic system” of accountability in government.93 The use of DynCorp 

in Plan Colombia illustrates such questionable government actions.

Case Study 5: DynCorp in Plan Colombia

In the late 1990s, the United States initiated Plan Colombia, a war on drugs in 

Colombia. Given the controversy, Congress placed restrictions on the type of 

operations the US forces could be involved in and restricted the United States 

to help only Colombian units that were free of human rights violations. A 

manifestation of the restrictions was that US forces could only conduct counternarcotics operations and could not be involved in counterinsurgency operations. While DynCorp was engaged officially to provide pilot training and 

technical support to the Columbian National Police, Singer highlights that 

DynCorp was reportedly engaged in aerial reconnaissance, combat advisory 

roles for the Colombian military, and counterinsurgency operations against 

rebels. He therefore asserted that DynCorp was “utilized as an alternative way 

to circumvent” policy restrictions and has no oversight from Congress.94

Apart from accountability issues, the PMC industry also does not 

measure well against the transparency criteria. Isenberg reports that 

only 40 percent of PMC contracts were open to competitive bidding, 

attributing this to warfare’s characteristics of “secrecy, heavy time 

constraints and the imperative of victory.”95 Perlo-Freeman and Skons 

support this and state that the resultant anticompetitive nature of the 

PMC industry can lead to “corruption capture” whereby the USG 

overpays for PMC services.96 For example, the US Army privatized 

certain military base services in Bosnia and was billed by a PMC for 

116 personnel despite the Army’s own calculations showing that 66 

personnel would have sufficed.97 It is not surprising that several 

PMCs are currently under investigation for fraud (e.g., the Custer 
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 31

Battles PMC “for cheating the US government out of tens of millions 

of dollars”).98

The shortage and quality of contract oversight personnel in the 

military appear to have fostered and exacerbated this lack of transparency. As Fontaine and Nagl note, the number and prestige of contract supervisory jobs in the DOD have fallen over the years.99 The 

downsizing of the USAID’s staff strength, despite rising demands, has 

also led to a shortage of regulatory and contract oversight personnel.100

The irony is that a PMC, Aegis, had to be awarded a $293 million 

contract to oversee and coordinate the other 60 PMCs in Iraq.101 As a 

result, for the first three years of the Iraq War, the USG had no accurate count of the number of PMC personnel involved.102 Fortunately, 

deliberate steps such as the appointments of special inspector generals 

in Iraq and Afghanistan were taken to enhance the audit process and 

address the lack of transparency in the PMC industry.103

The US key national strategic goal is to promote and lead the growing number of democracies. However, the apparent absence of the 

two key democracy tenets of accountability and transparency, coupled 

with the perceived lack of justice, is likely to undermine the international credibility and reputation of the United States to lead and 

promote democracy.

Policy Recommendations

The evaluation reveals that PMCs have a strong record of mission 

success and can be a significant force multiplier for the USG. However, the analysis also shows that the trend of mercenarizing the USG, 

if left unchecked, could adversely undermine US national security 

objectives, long-term war-fighting capability, and international credibility. An appropriate regulatory framework to retain the benefits of 

PMCs while mitigating the potential downsides is recommended.

Enhance Accountability and Transparency through Greater 

Regulation

The exercise of sanctioned violence on the battlefield is inherently 

a governmental responsibility that impacts national security and 

public interests. Privatizing military functions to PMCs should be 

regulated in a similar manner to the regulation of essential services 

like electricity production and water supply. Regulation should be 
32 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

done to enhance accountability and transparency as well as to help 

quell concerns that PMC infractions could undermine US national 

security objectives and international credibility.

First, the USG could address the accountability issues by clarifying 

the legal status of PMCs. The military tried to clarify the legal status of 

PMCs through the Military Extraterritorial Jurisdiction Act, but Fontaine 

and Nagl argue that the act is hardly used because the scope of its 

jurisdiction is ambiguous and the practical application difficult.104

Given that the actions of PMC personnel are indistinguishable from 

those of a uniformed soldier, this study regards PMC personnel as 

agents of the US military and thus recommends a review of the applicability of the Uniform Code of Military Justice to PMC personnel.

Second, the USG could instill greater transparency within the 

PMC industry by reviewing its contract oversight capabilities. Competitive bidding ensures that privatization yields cost efficiencies and 

prevents complacency and corruption capture. The USG could review 

its open, competitive bidding process and award no-bid contracts 

only under extenuating circumstances. In addition, transparency 

requires a proper vetting process regarding the quality of PMCs engaged 

by the USG. The numerous congressional hearings reveal that some 

PMCs foster a trigger-happy culture and fall “well short of any reasonable standard for vetting personnel.”105 In this regard, the recommendation is to enhance the USG’s contract oversight, supervisory, and 

audit capabilities by creating a “white and black” list of reputable and 

discredited PMCs.

Foster PMCs as a Supplement and not a Competitor to the USG

The PMC industry is a significant force multiplier in the short 

term, but it is now important to clarify the PMC industry’s long-term 

role in the total force. First, the USG could review the contracting 

relationship with the PMC industry. Specifically, the USG could insert 

a noncompete clause within the contract awarded to prevent PMCs 

from poaching USG personnel. This is similar to what the UK’s Ministry 

of Defence did when it told the PMCs in Iraq not to recruit serving 

soldiers.106 The USG could also encourage PMCs to hire Iraqi and 

Afghan locals instead to boost the local economy, reduce the recruitment pool for insurgents, and portray the USG as genuinely wanting 

to help the local people.
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 33

Second, to ensure the sustainability of its war-fighting capability, 

the USG must ensure that PMCs only supplement and do not take 

over capabilities critical to US national security. Specifically, the 

PMC’s expanding share of the force mix is of concern, especially 

given that Singer’s studies show Brown and Root provided US forces 

in the Balkans with a full “100 percent of food, hazard material handling, 

and maintenance for tactical and nontactical vehicles.”107 Fortunately, 

the 2010 QDR realizes the government’s overreliance on PMCs and 

will now “work to reduce the number of support service contractors, 

thereby helping to establish a balanced workforce that appropriately 

aligns functions to the public and private sector.”108 The recommendation is to review the role of PMCs with an aim of fostering PMCs 

as a sustainable supplement and not a competitor to the USG.

Implement a Comprehensive Information Campaign

Just as the CNN effect can exacerbate the missteps of PMCs, a wellcrafted information campaign can also enhance the PMC industry’s 

positive contributions and reputation. Coupled with greater regulation of the PMC industry, an information campaign should aim to 

prevent the pendulum from swinging back to where PMCs are seen 

as money-grubbing, trigger-happy mercenaries. Thus, the recommendation is to implement an information campaign highlighting 

the positive value of PMCs in improving the welfare of the local population, rectifying the half myths of PMCs’ nondemocratic behaviors, 

and rebranding the PMC industry as a responsible and integral part 

of the total USG force.

Conclusion

Kinsey correctly observes that there “is nothing unique about the 

privatization of violence.”109 Therefore, this study’s focus has been the 

emerging trend of mercenarizing the USG, where the USG increasingly relies on PMCs in terms of scale and scope and for their lethal 

combat services. This trend has manifested in PMC personnel outnumbering US troops in Iraq, as well as PMCs providing virtually 100 

percent of all US base services (e.g., water, food, waste management), 

being awarded multimillion-dollar global contracts, supplying the 

USG with a wide range of military services across the ROMO, and 

increasingly being placed in positions where the actual firing of 
34 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

weapons occurs. By itself, this trend is not concerning except that 

now it appears to be enriching the PMC industry at the expense of US 

national security.

There is no doubt that PMCs can contribute positively to the USG, 

but the long-term and strategic effects of the unregulated PMC industry now appear questionable. Senator Levin noted that “even one 

irresponsible act by contractor personnel can hurt the mission and 

put our troops in harm’s way”; and the House Committee said that 

“Blackwater’s missteps in Iraq are going to hurt us badly” by “creating 

resentment among Iraqis.”110 Such observations motivated this study, 

coupled with the fact that “Iraq was a dream contract for . . . mak[ing] 

millions” (e.g., Halliburton was awarded contracts totaling $13.5 billion 

for the Iraq war).111 This study developed three broad evaluation criteria 

to measure the PMC industry’s impact on US national security, 

namely the ability to achieve defense strategy objectives; promote 

freedom, justice, and human dignity; and promote and lead democracy. Based on these criteria, this study has the following findings:

• Tactical and short-term successes but strategic and long-term concerns. While PMCs are generally effective at tactical-level missions 

and enable a sustainable deployment cycle by boosting the USG’s 

total strength, their infractions, especially with civilian casualties, 

have undermined support at the strategic level. PMC poaching 

practices can potentially hollow out the USG in the long term.

• Isolated PMC missteps undermine freedom, justice, and human dignity. While the majority of PMCs are well intentioned and contribute 

positively, it takes just one highly publicized PMC misstep to damage 

the advancement of freedom, justice, and human dignity. In reality, 

several highly publicized PMC missteps—exacerbated by the perceived nonprosecution of PMCs—greatly discredit the US notion 

and promotion of justice.

• Accountability and transparency issues undermine US international 

credibility. While PMCs are legitimate private corporations providing goods and services in a marketplace, the lack of regulation creates 

accountability and transparency issues. In particular, the legal ambiguity of PMCs, the accountability of the USG, and the noncompetitive nature of PMC contracts undermine the United States’ international reputation and credibility to promote and lead democracy.
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 35

Singer advocates that “as long as war exists, so will a demand for 

military expertise.”112 Indeed, the PMC industry appears to be here to 

stay as an integral nonstate actor for the USG. Thus, rather than turning back the clock, this study proposes three broad policies to retain 

the benefits of PMCs while mitigating their downsides. Specifically, 

the USG should regulate the PMC industry for greater transparency 

and accountability, foster it as a supplement and not a competitor to 

the USG, and implement a comprehensive information campaign. In 

this regard, recent moves by Congress to investigate the impact of 

PMCs, by the DOD to reestablish a right balance with PMCs, and by 

the Obama administration to improve the quality of supervisory staff 

are a step in the right direction.113

This study has found that the USG’s increasing reliance on PMCs 

is concerning. If left unregulated, this trend of mercenarizing the 

USG is likely to be a boon for private military companies but a bane 

for national security, especially in the long term. Moving forward, it 

is imperative to comprehensively review the USG-PMC relationship 

and to incorporate an appropriate regulatory framework that better 

aligns the PMC industry with US national security interests.

Notes

1. Scahill, Blackwater, 41.

2. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 3.

3. Ibid., 5.

4. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 9.

5. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 93.

6. Ibid.

7. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 5.

8. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 95–97.

9. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 42.

10. UN General Assembly, Resolution 44/34, “International Convention against 

the Recruitment, Use, Financing and Training of Mercenaries.”

11. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 94.

12. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 12–13.

13. Scahill, Blackwater, 165–66.

14. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 114–15.

15. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 8.

16. Dew and Hudgens, “Evolving Private Military Sector,” 9.

17. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 7.

18. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 15.

19. Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private Military Services Industry, 8.

20. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 108.
36 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

21. Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private Military Services Industry, 22.

22. Geraghty, Soldiers of Fortune, 5.

23. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 22.

24. Ibid., 5.

25. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 49.

26. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 6.

27. Krahmann, “Controlling Private Military Companies,” 5–6.

28. Scahill, Blackwater, 28.

29. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 19.

30. Ibid.

31. Kidwell, Public War, Private Fight?, 30.

32. Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private Military Services Industry, 3.

33. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 95–96.

34. Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private Military Services Industry, 3.

35. Stanger, One Nation under Contract, 84.

36. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 11.

37. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 96.

38. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 23.

39. Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private Military Services Industry, 14.

40. Ibid., 15.

41. Ibid.

42. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 23.

43. Ibid., 134.

44. Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private Military Services Industry, 14.

45. Ibid., 13.

46. Wulf, Internationalizing and Privatizing, 169–70.

47. Iraqi Reconstruction: Reliance on Private Military Contractors and Status Report, 33.

48. Bush, National Security Strategy, ii.

49. US DOD, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, v.

50. Ibid.

51. Ibid., 14.

52. Ibid., 15–16.

53. Ibid.

54. Ibid.

55. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 17.

56. McFeely, Balancing Kinetic Effects, 17.

57. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 44.

58. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 94; and Fontaine and Nagl, 

“Contractors in American Conflicts,” 7.

59. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 8–9.

60. O’Brien, “Private Military Companies,” 43.

61. Geraghty, Soldiers of Fortune, 245; and Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private 

Military Services Industry, 11.

62. Stanger, One Nation under Contract, 104.

63. Levin, “Opening Statement.”

64. Ibid.

65. Iraqi Reconstruction: Reliance on Private Military Contractors and Status Report, 33.
“MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT │ 37

66. Geraghty, Soldiers of Fortune, 189–90.

67. Ibid.

68. Iraqi Reconstruction: Reliance on Private Military Contractors and Status Report, 5.

69. US DOD, 21st Century Air Force, 9.

70. US DOD, USCENTCOM 3rd Quarter Contractor Census Report.

71. Stanger, One Nation under Contract, 93.

72. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 7.

73. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 109.

74. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 5.

75. Ibid., 10.

76. Burge, “Effectiveness and Efficiencies,” 8.

77. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 102, 104, 108, 110, and 114–15.

78. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 107.

79. Kidwell, Public War, Private Fight?, 54–55.

80. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 324.

81. Elsea and Serafino, Private Security Contractors in Iraq, 26.

82. Simons, Master of War, 57–61 and 152–54.

83. Ibid., 157.

84. Kidwell, Public War, Private Fight?, 54–55.

85. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 17.

86. Richard Beeston and Catherine Philip, “Security Guards Investigated over 

‘Iraq Shootings’ Videos,” Times (London), 1 December 2005. 

87. Blackwater USA: Hearing before the Committee on Oversight and Government 

Reform, 20–21.

88. Levin, “Opening Statement.” 

89. Stanger, One Nation under Contract, 100.

90. Ryan Devereaux, “Blackwater Guards Lose Bid to Appeal Charges in Iraqi Civilian 

Shooting Case,” Guardian, 5 June 2012, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jun/05/

blackwater-guards-lose-appeal-iraq-shooting.

91. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 14.

92. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 159–65.

93. Ibid., 212.

94. Ibid., 208.

95. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 24.

96. Perlo-Freeman and Skons, Private Military Services Industry, 15.

97. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 156.

98. Stanger, One Nation under Contract, 3.

99. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 10.

100. Ibid.

101. Geraghty, Soldiers of Fortune, 237.

102. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 29.

103. Ibid., 12.

104. Fontaine and Nagl, “Contractors in American Conflicts,” 15.

105. Levin, “Opening Statement.”

106. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 107.

107. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 145.

108. DOD, Quadrennial Defense Review Report, xiii.
38 │ “MERCENARIZING” THE US GOVERNMENT

109. Kinsey, Corporate Soldiers and International Security, 157.

110. Levin, “Opening Statement”; and Blackwater USA: Hearing before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, 3.

111. Geraghty, Soldiers of Fortune, 210, 334.

112. Singer, Corporate Warriors, 230.

113. Isenberg, Private Military Contractors, 15–16.
Chapter 3

Western Europe’s Future Role in US 

International Relations

Lt Col Kelly L. Varitz

Major changes in demographics have identifiable and predictable 

consequences for countries around the globe. Demographers have 

distinguished key trends that, if they continue according to projection, could cause shifts in the geopolitical climate. Trends of potential 

concern are population declines, aging populations, and ethnic diasporas due to migration. These shifts will contribute to a reshaping of 

the global landscape over the next several decades.1

 They also have 

intrinsic links to national security as they are tied to a country’s resources and therefore affect its ability to create economic wealth and 

political and military strength.2

The United States and its allies face challenges associated with 

these demographic factors because of the consequences for key elements of national power—economic, political, and military.3

 Consequently, these issues merit further study as they are poised to impact 

relationships between the United States and its allies—specifically, 

US partnerships with its longtime allies in Western Europe.

Issues and Background

During the global exploration and colonization era, the growth in 

a country’s population directly influenced its political strength. Large 

boons in a country’s population correlated to past periods of global 

expansionism and economic growth—population had a major role in 

the geopolitics of power. This factor favored Western Europe for 

about 500 years, ending around 1940.4

 However, much of Western 

Europe is no longer experiencing high levels of population growth; 

many projections expect this trend to continue. Population growth 

requires a replacement rate of more than two children born to every 

woman.5

 Recent research indicates that fertility rates for Western Europe 

are between 1.5 and 2.1—depending on the country—with most of 

Western Europe experiencing numbers closer to 1.5 (fig. 3.1).6
40 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Figure 3.1. Regional fertility rates. (Reprinted from Population Reference 

Bureau, “World Population Highlights: Key Findings from PRB’s 2008 

World Population Data Sheet,” Population Bulletin 63, no. 3 [September 

2008], 1, http://www.prb.org/pdf08/63.3highlights.pdf.)

The failure of Western Europe to reach replacement rate indicates 

the potential for a future decline in overall population. This alone 

isn’t Western Europe’s only distressing demographic trend. As Peter 

Peterson states in his 1999 Foreign Affairs article on the global aging 

crisis, “Global life expectancy has grown more in the last fifty years 

than over the previous five thousand.”7

 Many consider this as a positive trend, and from a personal perspective, this may indeed be true.

However, when examined from a regional or governmental point 

of view, that is not necessarily the case. Globally, life expectancy since 

World War II has increased from age 45 to 65.8

 In the most developed 

nations of the world, life expectancy is projected to increase from age 

77 today to around age 85 at midcentury.9

 Western Europe is, of 

course, included in the figures for the developed world. The life expectancy numbers in some Western European countries are already 

higher than the overall developed world average: Italy–79 years, 

France–78, and Germany–77.4.10 The increase in the number of the 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 41

elderly that naturally comes about with greater life expectancy can 

bring with it social and economic strain. Those specifics are discussed 

later, but it is important to introduce life expectancy as a demographic 

trend because of its links to what many demographers see as Western 

Europe’s most challenging demographic trend—population aging.

Population decline and increased life expectancy taken individually 

may not be cause for much concern, but most of Western Europe is 

facing both of these issues. They create one looming problem when 

brought together.11 Increased life expectancy automatically causes an 

aging population, but falling population levels coupled with this rise 

in longevity bring about a much more rapid transformation in population age structures and growth rates.12 This “hyperaging” is occurring in much of Western Europe, where by 2050 the proportion of the 

population that is age 65 and above will increase from the current 19 

percent to 28 percent. Of the Western European countries, Germany, 

France, Great Britain, and Italy are projected to experience the most 

rapid growth rates in this demographic group.13

When examining aging population numbers, it is crucial to understand not only the percentage of the elderly but also the ratio of the 

working-age population (those persons aged 15–64) as compared to 

the elderly population (65 and older, who can draw on pension plans). 

This ratio is the nexus of the social and economic stress that aging 

populations create. Currently, the ratio of the working population to 

the elderly in the developed world is 4:1. Over the next 50 years, this 

is expected to drop to 2:1 or even lower for some countries in Western 

Europe.14 Figure 3.2 represents this trend graphically by showing the 

2050 projection of the working-age population for various countries 

as compared to the 2000 ratio.

Migration is another trend to watch when analyzing the demographic climate of Western Europe. Western Europe attracts over one 

million immigrants annually, contributing to its overall foreign-born 

population of 65 million.15 Many of Western Europe’s immigrants 

come from Muslim countries in sub-Saharan Africa.16 Migrants are 

leaving sub-Saharan Africa due to the effects of a population explosion in the region that is expected to continue into the next decade. 

Because of a drastic reduction in infant and child mortality rates, 

sub-Saharan Africa’s population is projected to increase by half by 

2025, creating a large youth bulge.17 The region does not have the 

economic vitality to support such a boom, so its youth are looking to 

Europe for better opportunities.
42 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

300

250

200

150

100

50

0 Western

Europe

United

Kingdom

Japan United

States

France Germany Italy Canada

MILLIONS Working-age population (15-64) 65+ population

2000 2050

Figure 3.2. Changes in working-age populations. (Reprinted from Central 

Intelligence Agency [CIA], Long-Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geopolitical Landscape [Washington, DC: CIA, July 2001], 

https://www.cia.gov/library/reports/general-reports-1/Demo_Trends

_For_Web.pdf.)

Migration of large ethnic groups from their traditional homeland to a 

region with a much different ethnic or religious makeup can create diasporas. This is characteristic of what is occurring and expected to continue to occur between sub-Saharan Africa and Western Europe. The 

phenomenon can bring social unrest as two or more cultures work to 

cohabit the region. However, if managed correctly, it has the potential to 

mitigate Western Europe’s aging population challenges.

Figure 3.3 is a geographical representation of the prominent demographic trends around the globe and provides a good summation of the 

previously discussed trends affecting Western Europe. Its depiction of the 

global nature of demographic trends illustrates their interconnectedness 

and, therefore, why they are geopolitical forces of change.

Although significant in analyzing the future of Western Europe, 

demographic trends aren’t the only challenges that will affect the geopolitical map of the region. Despite its declining population, the region 

will need more energy resources as its indigenous energy supplies dwindle 

(fig. 3.4).18 Energy dependency is defined as a situation where net imports as a percentage of gross consumption are robustly positive. All 

Western European countries are energy dependent with the exception of 

Denmark, and all dependent countries except the Netherlands and Italy 

showed an increased level of dependency from 2007 to 2008.19

Russia is Western Europe’s biggest source of natural gas, oil, and 

coal, supplying about 44 percent of its total energy consumption.20 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 43

Figure 3.3. Demographic trends affecting Western Europe. (Reprinted from 

CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends: Reshaping the Geo-political 

Landscape [Washington, DC: CIA, July 2001], https://www.cia.gov/library

/reports /general-reports-1/Demo_Trends_For_Web.pdf.)

Natural gas comprises around 25 percent of the energy consumed, making 

its secure supply a prime concern for Western European nations.21 

Western Europe is one of the dominant markets for Russian natural gas 

exports.22 Due to the interdependent nature of Western Europe’s and 

Russia’s energy relationship, it has typically been marked by stability and 

cooperation. However, recent events have brought this relationship 

into question.

Russia stopped natural gas supplies to the Ukraine and Georgia in 

an attempt to exert political influence in 2006. Some Western European countries saw this as a warning of Russia’s willingness to use its 

energy resources as a political weapon to gain power in the region.23

To compound this issue, the Russian natural gas pipeline system runs 

through many European and central Asian states, creating an interconnection among all of the countries in the region. Therefore, an 

energy dispute in one region could disrupt energy supplies in another. The geopolitical climate is altered when the potential of partnerships develops between nations that would not normally align. This 

was demonstrated in 2007 when natural gas supplies from Russia to 

Western Europe were disrupted when Russia terminated natural gas 

supplies to Belarus because of a dispute over prices and pipeline access.24

Unless mitigated by factors such as reductions in natural gas dependency 

or increases in domestic production, the codependent relationship 
44 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

between Russia and Western Europe is expected to continue and 

could even grow more crucial as Western Europe’s reliance on natural 

gas increases.

EU-27 2007

2008 Euro area

BE

BG

CZ

DK

DE

EE

IE

EL

ES

FR

IT

CV

LV

LT

LU

HU

NL

AT

PL

PT

RO

SI

SK

FI

SE

UK

-30 -10 10 30 50 70 90 110

Figure 3.4. EU [European Union] energy dependency. (Reprinted from 

Rita Keenan and Antigone Gikas, Statistical Aspects of the Energy 

Economy in 2008 [Luxembourg: Eurostat: Statistics in Focus, 55/2009].) 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 45

Research Question

The principal question this research serves to answer is how 

Western Europe’s future demographic and energy trends will affect its national security and, thereby, its relationship and global 

partnership with the United States. Western Europe faces coming 

challenges with the potential to negatively affect the region’s security. Many of the states in the region display demographic and energy dependency trends that could strain economies and challenge 

social climates.

Research Method

What is the best way to answer the research question presented? 

How do researchers even begin to answer questions about the future? 

The complex, unstable nature of prospective events makes answering questions about the future difficult. Without a structured 

methodology for examining the future, answers to questions can 

be ambiguous and present themselves as a researcher’s best guess. 

A proper approach requires more than analyzing data and making 

predictions about what the future might look like. That is where 

scenario planning (also called scenario thinking) comes into play. 

Scenario planning assists researchers in ordering and framing 

complex future problems and allows them to develop plausible accounts of how relevant external forces might interact to create 

challenges and opportunities for businesses or, in the case of this 

study, nation-states.25

Global Business Network (GBN) is a pioneer in the evolution of 

scenario planning. Although its scenario planning is geared for 

nonprofit organizations, GBN states throughout its literature the 

utility of this tool for other public- and private-sector institutions. 

GBN’s publication What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits presents scenario planning as a disciplined way to ask “what 

if?” by creating “stories about how the future might unfold” and 

“provocative and plausible stories about diverse ways in which relevant issues outside our organizations might evolve.”26 These 

“stories” form the basis for the scenario-planning process.
46 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

The scenario-planning process has five core steps: orient, explore, synthesize, act, and monitor (fig. 3.5). These phases are described below.

FOCUS

• Interviews

• Focal Issue

REPERCEPTION

• Scenario Framework

• Scenario Stories

IN SIGHT

• Implications

• Options

FORESIGHT

• Early Indicators

• Warning System DYNAMICS

• Uncertainties

• Certainties

ORIENT

EXPLORE

SYNTHESIZE

ACT

MONITOR

GBN Scenario Thinking Process

Figure 3.5. Scenario thinking process. (Reprinted from GBN, “Why 

Scenarios?,” http://www.gbn.com/about/scenario_planning.php.)

Phase 1: Orient

Clarify the issues by learning more about the challenges facing an 

organization. Next, take what is learned about the challenges and 

frame the focal question to be answered. The focal question should 

have a time frame associated with it to focus the process. GBN recommends slow-changing trends such as societal issues (e.g., aging and 

migration) that have longer time frames.27 This paper applies this process by first providing the background on the challenges facing Western 

Europe. This background led to the research question, how will Western 

Europe’s future demographic and energy trends affect its national 

security and, thereby, its relationship and global partnership with the 

United States? The time frame for this question is 2030 as most of the 

research material forecasts trends leading up to 2030 or after.
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 47

Phase 2: Explore

Examine the information from the orient phase to explore the 

“driving forces” that form the focal question. Driving forces are 

“forces of change outside the organization that will shape future 

dynamics in predictable and unpredictable ways.”28 Driving forces 

are either “predetermined”—highly likely to develop in a known 

direction, or “uncertainties”—important but unpredictable in how 

they will develop.29

Phase 3: Synthesize

Start with prioritizing the driving forces according to the degree of 

importance to the focal question and the degree of uncertainty of the 

driving forces. The goal is to identify the driving forces that are most 

important to the focal question and the most uncertain. These driving forces are “critical uncertainties” and will be the foundation of the 

scenarios.30 The next step is to use the critical uncertainties to develop 

a scenario framework by thinking of each critical uncertainty along 

an axis with the range of extremes of each uncertainty at each end of 

the axis. Next, by crossing the two axes, form a framework. The intersection of each axis creates a possible scenario. This is a scenario matrix 

and is used to further develop and explore the scenarios (fig. 3.6).31

After the matrix is developed, transform each identified scenario into 

a short narrative, beginning in the present and ending in the future.32

More Government

Weak

Economy

Strong

Economy

Less Government

Figure 3.6. Example scenario matrix. (Reprinted from Diana Scearce 

and Katherine Fulton, What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits, Emeryville, CA: Global Business Network [GBN], 2004.)
48 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Phase 4: Act

Use the scenarios developed in phase 3 to inform action. Assuming this scenario is the future, what actions can be taken to prepare? 

The answers to this question are the scenario implications. Use the 

implications to highlight strategic choices that an organization may 

need to make. These are the building blocks of a strategic agenda—a 

set of strategic priorities that help organizations meet long-term 

goals.33 This paper does not fully address this phase as it is meant to 

identify possible problems that could affect US national security and 

not to suggest solutions to these problems.

Phase 5: Monitor

Identify mechanisms that will track changes in the environment so 

organizations can identify changes and adapt strategy accordingly. 

Devise a monitoring system to track “leading indicators”—signs of 

potentially significant change—to specify if a particular scenario is 

beginning to unfold.34 This study uses the possible Western European 

strategies discussed earlier as key indicators the United States should 

consider as they may demonstrate signs of changes in Western Europe 

that could initiate a shift in the relationship between the two regions.

Analysis

This study introduces the demographic and energy issues facing 

Western Europe and provides a context in which to consider the significance of these issues. The major demographics trends of focus are 

population aging—as a factor of population decline and increased life 

expectancy—and migration. The major energy trend to consider is 

Western Europe’s dependence on Russia for a significant portion of 

its oil and natural gas needs. Key driving forces are uncovered that 

form the basis of the scenarios.

Population Aging

The current global aging phenomenon is a fundamental demographic shift with no parallel in human history.35 According to aging 

experts Alan Pifer and Lydia Bronte, the impact of global aging will 

be at least as powerful as any of the “great economic and social movements of the past.”36 In 1950 no nation in the world had a median age 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 49

higher than 36. Now, 16 countries in Western Europe have a median 

age of 40, and by 2050 six are projected to have a median age over 50.

This trend is not limited to Western Europe; it will also be prevalent in the developed countries of East Asia and in Eastern Europe 

and Russia.37 On a global scale, aging populations may cause a slowdown in economic growth in the developed world and a rearranging 

of the geopolitical order as the economic output of the developed 

world shrinks as a percentage of the world total. In 1950 six of the 12 

most populous countries were developed; by 2050 the United States 

will be the only developed country in the 12 most populous.38 For 

individual countries, the most serious impact of aging will be its fiscal 

cost. According to projections by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, public spending on pensions and health benefits in 

developed countries could grow from an average of 11 percent of 

gross domestic product (GDP) to upwards of 23 percent—five times 

greater than the typical developed country currently spends on 

national defense.39

Along with these fiscal costs come greater expenses to individuals 

and societies overall. As the developed world is aging, its populations 

are also shrinking, meaning that by the time the aging projections 

begin to unfold, the number of workers in the population will have 

declined. Fewer workers will mean fewer resources available to contribute to pension and health care programs, leading to an unprecedented economic burden on working-age populations.40 This burden 

could bring serious dangers that manifest in various ways throughout 

societies, including destabilizing swings in interest rates, steep tax 

hikes, and deep benefit cuts.41

In the years following World War II, many developed countries 

began to expand their public pension programs and evolve them to 

“pay-as-you-go systems.”42 This worked well when the number of 

retirees was small and the number of workers was growing, but as the 

numbers of elderly dramatically increase and the numbers of workers 

decline, these systems will be put to the ultimate test. Pension plans 

and other retirement benefit systems not designed to provide the additional payout that global aging will require will be strained and may 

even break under the added pressure. The pressure to keep up with 

the added expenditure of growing pension and health care programs 

will create mounting debt in countries with aging populations.43 This 

added debt could be mitigated by raising interest rates and taxes on 

the working population.
50 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

Less manpower in the labor force also means slower improvement 

in living standards. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and 

Development (OECD) estimates that the cumulative effect of a 

decrease in labor will reduce the living standard of Japan by 25 percent and that of EU countries by 18 percent by 2050.44 With this 

added pressure, the young, working-age population may see the 

responsibility to “pay for” the elderly as an unwanted millstone, 

especially when it hits home in the form of higher taxes, larger interest 

rates, and a lower standard of living. The working-age population’s 

perceived encumbrance of paying for the elderly at the expense of its 

own quality of life could strain the relationship between the two 

groups. This stress may be exacerbated as elderly groups gain a larger 

voice in national politics due to the increase in their numbers. The 

political power of the elderly is already rising in Europe with the influence of senior-sponsored labor unions and political parties that 

adopt pro-retiree platforms.45 The question future-trends researchers 

are asking is, with ever more electoral power in the hands of the 

elderly, what will motivate political leaders to act on behalf of the 

future of the young?46 There likely isn’t a stronger indicator of a 

potential rift between the young and old than the truth behind 

that question.

In addition to these economic and social impacts, aging countries 

will find it increasingly difficult to maintain strong militaries. Not 

only will aging countries have less of their GDP to devote to national 

defense, they will also have a smaller manpower pool from which to 

draw their military strength. With the number of military service-age 

youth expected to decline in most developed countries, militaries will 

be hard-pressed to maintain force levels—even more so if small 

families are not willing to send their children to war.47

Most countries in Western Europe will have fertility rates between 

1.5 to 2.1 children for every woman. Since that is below replacement 

level, populations are expected to decline. The percentage of the population over age 65 is expected to increase from around 19 percent to 28 

percent across Europe with the Western European countries of Germany, Italy, and the United Kingdom increasing the most. Western 

Europe’s population decline coupled with its aging population will 

result in a worker-to-elderly ratio of 2:1, down from its current 4:1 

ratio. As demonstrated by the general global aging impacts, these 

demographic trends are poised to cause serious issues inside

Western Europe.
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 51

The overwhelming set of issues Western Europe faces as its population ages creates at least two main problems it must tackle: how to 

support the elderly population and where to find the labor force to 

continue contributing to the economy.48 These issues point to the primary driving force related to the focal question of how demographic 

trends will affect Western Europe’s national security. That main driving force is the proportion of elderly to the working population. According to demographers, this trend is nearly a foregone conclusion. 

Barring any unforeseen catastrophes such as natural disasters or pandemics, the number of the elderly certainly will not change between 

now and 2030 since that segment of the population has already been 

born. Most demographers do not believe Western Europe can reduce 

its population decline, and any successful initiatives to do so would 

take much longer than the 2030 time frame covered by this research.49

These factors are ranked high in importance and low in uncertainty. 

Therefore, they qualify as a driving force.

Migration

Currently, an estimated 40 million people live outside their native 

countries.50 This migration trend is expected to increase over the next 

10 to 20 years, especially from developing states to the developed 

world. Migration already accounts for over 70 percent of the total 

share of population growth in developed countries, an increase of 45 

percent since 1990.51 The migration of people from underdeveloped 

to developed countries is often spurred by the lure of higher living 

standards, generous welfare systems, and good educational opportunities. This is illustrated in the current and projected future migration 

patterns from sub-Saharan Africa to Western Europe, where large 

numbers of migrants are fleeing countries with no infrastructure to 

support their booming populations and heading to countries where 

they believe opportunities are better.

According to the US Joint Forces Command’s (USJFCOM) Joint 

Operating Environment 2008, “Such migrations disrupt patterns of 

culture, politics and economics and in most cases carry with them 

the potential of further dislocations and troubles.”52 Large influxes of 

immigrants to regions ethnically and religiously different from their 

parent countries have the potential to strain economies, generate 

violence, and cause political upheaval in host nations.53 Given that a 

large number of immigrants are coming from countries ethnically 
52 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

and religiously different from the majority of Western Europeans, the 

substantial increase in immigrants could rapidly change the cultural 

balance. For example, foreigners are projected to make up 30 percent 

of Germany’s total population by 2030. This kind of change in the 

cultural makeup of a country has the potential to cause instability for 

several reasons.

Most countries in Europe (including Western Europe) have historically been ethnically and religiously homogeneous. Their populations 

traditionally desire to maintain their cultural identity and are less 

likely to intermingle and intermarry with immigrants. Thus, migrant 

populations are separated, creating a “second class” of people without 

access to the economic advantages of the “first class.” This formula 

fuels xenophobic backlash from native populations and creates anger 

among the immigrant populations.54

Also, a flood of immigrants from developed countries will initially 

overload the host nation’s infrastructure and resources.55 As native 

populations begin to feel this strain in their homes, they will become 

increasingly resistant to immigration and immigrants, further polarizing the native population and immigrant groups. This phenomenon 

could especially impact Western Europe as it will already be facing 

economic issues from funding the government programs required to 

support its aging populations. The additional drain on resources 

caused by migration could further damage already stretched economies.

Migration, however, can have positive effects, especially by helping 

solve the problems of aging populations in the developed world. The 

OECD predicts that the labor force in the developing world will double 

by 2025, while developed countries like those in Western Europe will 

require more workers to add to their dwindling working-age population.56 Migration could provide a substantial working class, forming a 

tax and consumer base for Western Europe’s aging societies. This tax 

base could help pay for the pension and health care programs for the 

elderly.57 However, if Western Europe chooses to use migration to alleviate problems brought about by aging populations, it must consider 

that the number of immigrants required by many countries to support retirees would far exceed immigration levels of the past decade.58

For example, to support its retirees, Germany would have to boost 

immigration to record levels through 2050, above the 1 million 

caused by German reunification in 1990.59

Given the considerable potential to mitigate Western Europe’s 

most looming problem, the issue Western European governments 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 53

should examine is how they can properly manage immigration so 

their migrant populations will help offset the effects of their aging 

populations. Managing immigration involves many different governmental actions, including developing immigration policies, work 

permit procedures, citizenship laws, and integration strategies. The 

issue of immigration integration is the focus of this study because of 

its potential to cause most of the negative economic and societal factors 

if improperly managed. This is especially true given the large number 

of immigrants it will take to support the growing number of Western 

European retirees.

The proper integration of immigrants is the driving force behind the 

focal question of how demographic trends will affect Western Europe’s 

national security. It is high in importance and in uncertainty as it is not 

apparent how well Western European governments will manage the 

integration of their immigrants into Western European societies.

Western European countries are currently taking different approaches to immigrant integration with varied levels of success. 

France has adopted an assimilation approach whereby immigrants 

are integrated as individuals as opposed to members of an ethnic 

minority community. This has led to isolated ethnic populations that 

are frequently relegated to ghetto-type environments that have become breeding grounds for antisocial behavior.60 The Dutch have experienced similar results from their multicultural approach to immigrant integration. In their approach, immigrants belonging to 

minority groups are integrated with full respect to their cultural and 

religious differences. Critics blame the Dutch version for the creation 

of parallel societies that fail to recognize and capitalize upon commonalities between ethnic and religious groups but instead magnify 

differences and polarize population groups.61 The British have also 

used a multicultural approach for minority group integration but 

have taken steps to ensure that minority groups have the opportunity 

for economic advancement, particularly into the middle class. They 

have seen some success in this approach, but recent evidence shows 

that extremist groups, which seek to play on the differences among 

minority populations and create division between these populations 

and society at large, are beginning to find recruits from universities 

attended by the offspring of integrated middle-class immigrants.62

The question of how to best integrate immigrants into host-nation 

societies has no easy answers. Integration efforts are most likely to 

succeed when immigrants feel they have a stake in the success or failure 
54 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

of their host society. How to most effectively achieve this in historically homogeneous societies like Western Europe remains a challenge. It is clear from the terrorist attacks in London and 

Madrid—where evidence indicates the terrorists involved were 

homegrown—that the proper integration of immigrants is not only 

an economic issue but also a national security concern.

Continued terrorist attacks in Western Europe could bring an outcry for increased investment in military forces. Also, if the frequency 

and intensity of terrorist attacks increase, Western European governments may respond to them not as localized, internal security issues 

but on an international scale.63 The challenge will then be fielding the 

forces necessary to conduct international military operations. On the 

one hand, migration could bring a larger pool from which to draw a 

military force. On the other hand, this new pool of recruits could resist 

fighting for a country it isn’t culturally connected with. In addition, as 

minority groups grow in number, they will garner a larger voice in 

the political systems of host countries. Minority groups may use this 

increased political influence to affect the foreign policy decisions of 

the host nation. They likely will not support host-nation foreign policy 

actions seen as attacking their own ethnic or religious groups, even if 

those groups reside outside the host or parent country. 

Given the positive and negative effects of migration, Western Europe 

will face tough challenges as its governments decide how to handle 

the flow of immigrants the region will face in the future. Handled 

properly, migrants can be an answer to some of the problems of aging 

populations. Handled improperly, migrants can add additional burdens to already strained societies.

Energy Dependence

Global energy demands are on the rise. By 2030 energy demands 

are expected to be 50 percent greater than today. Meeting this demand 

would require the addition of about 1.4 million barrels per day of 

energy resources every year.64 Fossil fuels such as oil, coal, and natural 

gas will remain the dominant source of energy in the coming decades. 

Projections indicate that the discovery of new petroleum and gas 

fields sufficient to meet this demand is unlikely.65 This indicates major 

energy challenges in the future as the world faces energy shortfalls. 

The effects of these challenges are hard to predict but will likely shape 

the prospects for growth in both developing and developed countries 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 55

and intensify unresolved political and social tensions among opponents and allies.66

As the availability of energy resources begins to shrink, countries 

will experience greater stress due to scarcity of resources. Countries 

will be forced to preserve their access to energy supplies as they may 

be deemed necessary for domestic stability and nation-state survival. 

This could lead to conflict over resources—war or a buildup in armed 

forces that could increase regional tensions. Diplomatically, it could 

mean a reshuffling of alliances and partnerships that may alter relationships among longtime friendly countries.67 It is this latter phenomenon 

that is poised to affect future US and Western European relations.

Europe is projected to remain dependent on Russia for its energy 

(primarily natural gas) into and likely past 2025.68 Recent events have 

raised doubts as to the security of Russia’s energy supply into Western 

Europe. At a minimum, this concern will cause Western Europe to 

watch the actions of Russia more closely. Since Russia’s natural gas 

companies are nationalized, they are directly tied to the national 

security decision making of the country, increasing the likelihood 

that Russia will use its energy resources for political purposes. This 

creates a dangerous situation for Western Europe. The potential exists 

for Russia to leverage Western Europe’s energy dependency to exert 

pressure on Western European governments to set foreign policy 

favorable to Russia.69 In addition, since Russia has a veritable monopoly 

on gas supplies from central Asia into Western Europe, it can dictate 

the cost of natural gas, meaning Western Europe will likely continue 

to pay a high price for its natural gas needs.70 This could further degrade 

Western European economies already under stress due to an aging 

population and a potentially large influx of immigrants.

If the Russian energy supply is perceived to be too unstable, Western 

Europe may be forced to look elsewhere for its natural gas needs. One 

potential source is Iran, whose natural gas reserves are second only to 

Russia.71 Such a partnership would give Iran tremendous diplomatic 

leverage as one ominous example illustrates. Western Europe has 

partnered with the United States in an attempt to thwart Iran’s efforts 

to develop nuclear weapons. An energy partnership between Western 

Europe and Iran could significantly hamper that effort, especially if it 

involved Britain and France; both countries have veto rights in the 

United Nations Security Council.72

Given the possible effects discussed, Western Europe’s dependency 

on Russia for its energy needs is the driving factor linked to the focal 
56 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

question of how demographic trends will affect Western Europe’s 

national security. It is high in importance because of the potential 

effects on Western Europe’s national security and economy. Thus far, 

Western Europe’s efforts to decrease Russian energy dependency 

have fallen short of success.73 That it will maintain some level of dependency on Russia for energy needs is certain—how much is uncertain. 

It is this level of dependence that will drive the effects discussed earlier. 

Therefore, the driving force is ranked high in uncertainty.

Previously, this chapter presented the ways in which future demographic and energy trends could affect the geopolitical environment 

of Western Europe and introduced the driving factors that will be the 

basis of the scenarios used to describe the possible futures for Western 

Europe as it deals with the challenges of these trends. Next, this chapter 

covers four future scenarios for Western Europe regarding aging 

populations, migration, and energy dependency.

Four Futures for Western Europe

Three driving forces related to the focal question of this study were 

previously identified: (1) the proportion of the elderly to the working 

class population, (2) the integration of migrants into Western European societies, and (3) the level of dependency of Western Europe on 

Russia for energy needs. Two of the three driving forces—proper integration of migrants into societies and the level of dependency on 

Russia for energy needs—were ranked as high in importance and in 

uncertainty. According to scenario planning guidance, these driving 

forces should be labeled as critical uncertainties and used to develop 

effective scenarios for future planning.74 These two critical uncertainties will be combined to form the axes of a scenario matrix; each of 

the scenarios presented later will represent one of the quadrants of 

the scenario matrix (fig. 3.7).

The driving force of the proportion of elderly to the working class 

population was ranked high in importance but low in uncertainty 

because most researchers are convinced Western Europe’s population 

will continue to age at the rates predicted. Researchers are certain 

Western Europe’s native population will continue to decline. Migration has the potential to improve the elderly-to-worker ratio, but that 

will be addressed through the immigration integration driving factor.
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 57

Low Energy

Dependence

WellIntegrated

Migrant

Population

High Energy

Dependence

Poorly

Integrated

Migrant

Population United and Energy

Dependent

Just Can’t Get Enough

United and Energy

Independence

Future’s So Bright We

Gotta Wear Shades

Divided and Energy

Independent

We Didn’t Start the Fire

Divided and Energy

Dependent

It’s the End of the World

as We Know It

1 2

3 4

Figure 3.7. Scenario matrix for possible futures for Western Europe.

Scenario 1: United and Energy Independent—Future’s So Bright 

We Gotta Wear Shades

Good immigrant integration, low energy dependence. More than 20 

years ago, futurists were making dire predictions concerning the 

health and welfare of Western Europe. They predicted major economic and social turmoil due to hyperaging, energy challenges, and 

large immigrant populations. Today, in the year 2030, those futurists 

are eating crow, as their dire predictions have not materialized. In 

fact, most countries in Western Europe have turned their demographic and energy challenges into opportunities: their economies 

have flourished, and their societies are strong. As Western Europe’s 

population expectedly aged, the governments of Western Europe 

worked diligently to mitigate the economic problems brought about 

by the graying of societies. They capitalized on the growing immigrant population, providing viable opportunities to contribute to society and improve their quality of life. Recognizing the dangers of 

remaining overly dependent on Russia for oil and natural gas, Western European governments promoted initiatives to wean their countries off their reliance on fossil fuels and worked to diversify supply 

sources for remaining fossil-fuel needs. Great Britain, in particular, 
58 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

achieved remarkable success, as portrayed in excerpts from its prime 

minister’s address to the British Parliament. Gavin Nasser, the son of 

immigrant parents, is Britain’s current prime minister.

My fellow parliamentarians, it is with great honour that I address you today 

on the state of this grand nation of ours. As you know all too well, the past 

decades were challenging ones for Great Britain. We faced an economy burdened by the costs of an aging population and a diminishing workforce and 

further weakened by the need for massive government subsidies to ease the 

effects of increases in natural gas and oil prices. Our citizens suffered greatly 

because of this downturn in our economy. Our elderly saw cuts in their pensions and health care. Unemployment was at an all time high. Natural gas and 

oil shortages and price hikes put additional strain on nearly every member of 

our society.

Great Britain was headed for its darkest days. However, as they always do, the 

people of Britain faced these challenges with the fighting spirit ever present in 

this great country of ours. We were determined to conquer the challenges 

before us and emerge a stronger, more vibrant nation. And conquer those 

challenges we did!

Thanks to Britain’s determined citizens and the great leadership of those who 

came before me, Britain is on the road not only to recovery but to becoming 

an even stronger nation and a larger presence in the international community. 

Under the banner of liberty, civic duty, and fairness to all, the British people 

stood together to contribute to the rebuilding of society. No matter the class, 

colour, or creed, citizens threw aside their prejudices and xenophobia and 

worked hard to preserve the British way of life. Through sacrifice and hard 

work we were able to reduce our dependency on oil and natural gas by creating 

viable, renewable energy alternatives affordable to all. We made energy conservation more than a slogan; it is now a British way of life. The parliament 

achieved its goal of getting Britain out from under the shadow of Russian energy 

dependence by seeking strong energy partnerships with other countries. We 

have been especially successful in developing energy partnerships with governments in sub-Saharan Africa and now receive a substantial portion of our 

remaining energy needs from this region—a region particularly important to 

many of our citizens as they, their parents, or grandparents emigrated from 

many of the countries there.

Speaking of our immigrants . . . I commend our immigrant population for 

their commitment to Great Britain. Despite their short history in this country, 

our immigrants have become integral members of society. Many continue to 

hold much necessary jobs in the service industry, while others have started 

businesses of their own. Still many more are filling shortages in the medical 

and teaching fields. In our public schools and universities, it’s impossible to 

tell recent immigrant children from the children of those who have been in 

Britain for generations; all play and study together with no care of race, religion, 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 59

or country of origin. Thanks to the contributions of our immigrants, Britain’s 

economy has continued to grow.

Our elderly citizens have also carried much of the burden for our society. Facing 

cuts in pensions and health care, many have remained in the workforce, adding much-needed revenue to our economy. We have recently been able to return pensions and health benefits to the levels before the cuts. Now, many of 

our elderly are enjoying their much-earned retirement. I have great admiration for all of our citizens and thank them immensely for their sacrifice and 

hard work.

I promise you that, as leader of this parliament, I will continue the efforts of 

those before me. I will work hard to further strengthen our economy. I will 

strive to preserve the national unity we have worked so hard to build. Together, 

we, the citizens of Great Britain, will carry this country into the bright future we 

have all worked so diligently to ensure. I very much look forward to continuing 

to serve as your prime minister.

Scenario 2: Divided and Energy Independent—We Didn’t Start 

the Fire

Poor immigrant integration, low energy dependence. It is the year 

2030, and Western European countries continue to face challenges. 

The population has aged. Almost 30 percent of the population is over 

the age of 65 and eligible to collect on pension plans and health care 

benefits promised to them by their governments. However, many 

aren’t collecting at the rates expected due to the inability of their governments to fully fund the benefits programs. This is causing hardship 

for the elderly populations. Many are working past what was once 

considered retirement age, and many are forced to go without needed 

medical care and prescription drugs. Families are unable to care for 

their aging parents and grandparents because of the additional taxes 

the government has levied on individuals and private businesses to 

assist in stimulating economies. The economies of Western Europe 

are further burdened by the need to provide welfare support to large 

immigrant populations that cannot find employment beyond minimum wage and that live in government-provided housing in ghetto 

sections of the larger cities.

Western European governments have been successful in easing the 

dependence on Russia for natural gas and oil supplies by reducing 

their dependence on nonrenewable energy sources and partnering 

with additional countries to import the fossil fuels still needed. This 

has brought down energy costs to the consumer, but the people have 
60 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

not seen the benefits as governments have raised taxes on oil and 

natural gas to help fund programs for the elderly.

Immigrant groups increasingly lobby governments for more welfare assistance, mostly to no avail. This is creating a feeling of disenfranchisement among immigrants, leading to protests—some becoming violent—in major cities across Western Europe. The elderly 

are also becoming more and more dissatisfied with their living conditions. They have formed large lobby groups as vehicles to continue 

pressuring Western European governments to increase funding of 

pension and health care programs. Some governments are choosing 

to increase retirement benefit funding, but it comes at the expense of 

other government programs such as national defense. Below is an 

open letter to the president of Germany as published by the Englishlanguage Deutsche Welle, a German online news repository. It was 

written by the leader of a particularly large and influential pensioners’ 

lobby group.

Dear President von Hindenburg,

I’m writing to you on behalf of the elderly citizens of Germany.

As you well know, we are in dire straits. We’re suffering and dying at the hands 

of your government. During the past several years we’ve sat idly by while your 

government pours taxpayer money into the ghettos of Frankfurt, Berlin, and 

Hamburg to support the foreigners who are unwilling to work while we, 

who’ve given the best years of our lives working for our country, can’t collect 

the benefits we’ve rightfully earned.

We watch our friends and relatives suffer every day, making inhumane decisions between paying for medical treatment or buying food. We watch as their 

medical care is rationed, leaving them in severe pain while they slowly die of 

curable diseases. We see their families emotionally wrecked as your government’s overtaxation has rendered them financially incapable of helping their 

dying mothers and fathers.

We appreciate your government’s recent efforts to ease the effects of Germany’s 

overdependence on Russia for oil and gas. This showed promise in lowering 

our soaring natural gas costs and relieving our suffering. As I’m sure you 

remember, the winter of 2026 was especially bad for us. We lost many of our 

friends and neighbors who couldn’t afford to heat their homes, as they succumbed to the extremely frigid temperatures during the coldest winter in 

Germany’s recorded history. With these memories fresh in our minds, we 

saw your new energy plan as a shining light in a sea of darkness, only now 

to have that light extinguished by increased government taxes on natural gas 

and oil—taxes you use to fund more programs to help the foreigners who do 

nothing to help themselves or us.
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 61

As if all of that were not enough, we’re forced to endure violence in our neighborhoods with little protection from the police. Foreigners riot in our streets, 

damaging our property and threatening us with brutality. We fear for our lives 

as they prey on our weakened state. Instead of our government helping us, 

they show pity on those who inflict fear and violence by calling them “disenfranchised youth.” How about us, the “disenfranchised elderly”? Where is the 

government in our time of need?

Now your government is contemplating providing military assistance to the 

United States for its war in Yemen. We want as much as anyone to see Germany’s relationship with the United States remain strong, but at what cost? 

More suffering and death for Germany’s elderly? There are far too many problems inside Germany to commit ourselves to the dilemmas of others.

We understand you have tough decisions to make, but is it too much to ask for 

the loyal citizens of Germany to be taken care of in the manner in which their 

government promised? We’re not asking for something for nothing or more 

than we deserve, as so many in this country are. We simply want the right to 

live in peace and with dignity.

We can no longer endure this terrible treatment. We represent the largest voting population in the country. We’ve been energized and mobilized by your 

government’s unfair treatment. We will now take action.

I assure you that the pensioners of Germany are united in their resolve to 

make you and your government pay for the pain and suffering you’ve inflicted 

upon us.

Remember, President von Hindenburg, we didn’t start this fire. It was started 

by the failed policies of you and your government and stoked by the laziness 

and disloyalty of the “disenfranchised youth.”

Your day of judgment is here.

Sincerely,

Ada Vanderbon

President, Sozialverband VdK

Scenario 3: United and Energy Dependent—Just Can’t Get Enough

Good immigrant integration, high energy dependence. It is a new 

decade in Western Europe—2030. In recent years the region has experienced a large influx of immigrants, many coming from countries 

in sub-Saharan Africa where populations continue to explode. Western 

European governments have had decades of experience with immigrant populations, learning many lessons from integration policies of 

the past. Most of the Western European countries have been successful in integrating their immigrant populations, making immigrants 
62 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

productive members of society. Immigrants contribute to the economic growth of the country by working in all sectors of society, operating private businesses, and holding government jobs. Their children 

attend the same public and private schools as those of nonimmigrants, and they actively participate in local civic and political organizations. Generally, immigrants feel they have a stake in society and 

believe they are well represented by the local and central governments of their host countries.

With a larger pool of workers, Western European countries are 

able to continue providing pensioners with the social benefits they 

expect. Although the increase in taxpayers brought about by the influx of immigrants has not eliminated the economic impact of population aging, it has mitigated it enough to stabilize Western European 

economies. The elderly pension plans and health benefits are not straining the region’s economies to the extent some futurists had predicted.

However, one issue Western Europe still faces is dependence on 

Russia for energy needs. All Western European countries except 

Denmark remain energy dependent, and most still rely on Russia to 

fulfill a significant percentage of their oil and natural gas needs.75 Due 

to the relatively stable nature of most of the economies of Western 

Europe, governments have been able to provide government subsidies to offset the high costs of natural gas resulting from Russian energy companies’ recent price increases. Western European governments have engaged with Russia regarding the recent price hikes, but 

thus far the Russian government has been reluctant to do anything 

about the issue. Current Russian rhetoric indicates additional price 

hikes may be likely if Western Europe continues to oppose Russian 

initiatives in the United Nations. The following excerpt is from a 2030 

Wikipedia entry, “French Economy in the 2020s and Beyond”:

Ahmed Buchez from the Union pour un Mouvement Populaire party was appointed prime minister of France in 2020 after the dismissal of his predecessor, Jacques Fabius, from the Front National Party due to a public uprising 

over their anti-immigrant policies. Buchez entered office in the midst of a 

period of widespread social and political unrest. The years 2019 and early 

2020 were marked with several social movements by migrant groups fighting 

for improved working conditions, better compensation, and more leeway in 

extending working visas and applying for citizenship. Elderly interest groups 

were lobbying the French government to repeal the earlier cuts in the rates of 

payment for senior citizen pension and health care plans. The French economy 

was on a downturn; GDP had dropped to its lowest level since the global economic crisis of 2009, and budget deficits were at an all-time high.
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 63

Upon his appointment, Ahmed Buchez and his Union pour un Mouvement 

Populaire party undertook several governmental reforms to address the issues 

of the nation. Most notable were his efforts to speak to the situation faced by 

the large number of immigrants present in France. Buchez worked to undo 

many of the divisive immigrant policies of the Front National Party, engaging 

in negotiations with leaders representing the major ethnic and religious immigrant groups in France. He reinvigorated the Law of Equal Opportunities

implemented in 2006 to prevent discrimination in the workplace. He also 

worked with many French corporations and businesses on instituting hiring 

practices that would bring more immigrant workers into their workforces. 

Initiatives such as this significantly lowered unemployment in immigrant 

communities and drastically reduced the number of immigrants receiving 

state welfare payments.

With a stable job base in place, Buchez reinstituted worker visa programs in 

an endeavor to recruit additional immigrant workers to fill shortages in the 

French labour market. He also relaxed the restrictions on family reunification, 

allowing the families of many migrant workers to join them in France. By the 

latter part of the 2020s, many of Buchez’s immigrant initiatives began to show 

an effect on France’s economy. With migrant workers easing the shortages in 

the French labour markets, more revenue was available to the government to 

curb the deficit and fund elderly pension and health care programs. The 

French GDP was again on the rise.

Where does this leave France now as it enters the new decade? With the economy on an upswing, the French parliament has now turned its attention to 

tackling the problem of energy dependence. Many of the energy policies of 

the 2020s have fallen short of reducing France’s dependency on Russia for oil 

and natural gas. Now, with a healthier economy, the French government has 

instituted an initiative program promoting the development of renewable energy 

and energy conservation solutions to decrease French citizens’ reliance on 

fossil fuels. It has also begun negotiation with governments in sub-Saharan 

Africa to develop energy trading partnerships in hopes of diversifying France’s 

nonrenewable energy supply network. How much these efforts will succeed is 

yet to be seen, but what is certain is France’s overdependence on Russia for 

energy can’t be ignored.

As it stands now, in 2030, it seems as if France just can’t get enough of Russia’s 

oil and natural gas. Russia understands this all too well. The Russian nationalized 

oil company, Gazprom, raised French natural gas prices in February 2030. 

Although the Russian government has denied the accusation, it is widely believed that the increase in natural gas prices was an attempt to pressure the 

French government to vote with Russia in favor of the UN resolution against 

US military action in Yemen. The French government was able to provide 

subsidies to the French natural gas distributors to deflect the effects of the 

increase in prices to the consumer, but further moves such as this by Russia 

are poised to impact the recent growth in the French economy. It is also 

unclear how this move will affect Russian/French diplomatic relations. French 
64 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

president Jean-Pierre Masur is expected to visit Russia in the summer of 2030 

to discuss this and other political concerns.

Although the future looks promising for further growth in the French economy, 

more work is to be done to bring it back to its pre-2020 levels, and additional disruptions like the recent energy disputes with Russia will only prolong this effort.

Scenario 4: Divided and Energy Dependent—It’s the End of the 

World as We Know It

Poor immigrant integration, high energy dependence. The decade 

has not been a good one for Western Europe. The once powerful region is now in desperate decline—economies are in ruins, and societies are in disorder. With over 30 percent of the population of most 

countries over the age of 65 and a worker-to-elderly ratio of 2:1, 

Western European governments are straining to fund pension programs for the elderly. Some countries have decided to cut funding; 

others have not. Those governments that have not are struggling to 

keep their economies afloat. Those who have cut funding are seeing 

their elderly populations suffer from inadequate health care, hunger, 

and poverty. Immigrants have flocked to Western Europe from Africa. Most Western European governments initially welcomed the 

immigrants because they saw them as a pool of workers whose taxes 

could mitigate the economic effects of their hyperaging populations. 

However, with little immigration control and large numbers of immigrants entering the region, countries are finding it difficult to integrate immigrants into mainstream society.

Despite government programs to assist with integration, most immigrants remain separated from the native populations. They live in 

separate neighborhoods, and their children attend mostly separate 

schools. Many immigrants hold jobs in the service sector where they 

earn less than the average native citizen. There is little immigrant representation in local and state governments, leaving immigrants feeling increasingly disenfranchised and hopeless. There is a tremendous 

rift between the native population and recent immigrants, especially 

between the elderly and the immigrant population as the elderly become increasingly agitated by the perceived lack of contribution of 

the immigrants. It is not uncommon to witness violent protests in 

many major Western European cities. Some cities have also experienced terrorist attacks. Added to the social and economic troubles 

facing Western Europe are the challenges surrounding its continued 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 65

dependence on Russia for oil and natural gas. The Russian energy 

company Gazprom has acquired majority stakes in energy companies throughout Europe and owns the preponderance of natural gas 

pipelines supplying Western Europe. The company is now in the position to almost fully control the volume and price of natural gas entering 

Western European countries. As Gazprom is owned and controlled 

by the Russian government, it can and has been used as an instrument of Russian national power. Below is an entry found on the blog 

site of a Muslim extremist group recently uncovered by Centro Nacional de Inteligencia, Spain’s central intelligence service. Muslim extremists are actively recruiting members from Spain’s growing disenfranchised immigrant population.

First, I commend my Muslim brothers for their bravery in undertaking the 

recent Islamic liberation attacks in Madrid and Barcelona. These attacks were 

tremendous, far dwarfing the Madrid bombings of 2004. The death and destruction caused by these attacks brought fear to the hearts of Spaniards and 

dread to infidels around the globe. My Muslim brothers’ continued commitment to the cause of jihad is to be admired by Muslims the world over.

For years now, we have been subjugated by the secular government of Spain, 

forced to live among infidels who call themselves Christians but behave like 

beasts. These materialistic, sexually immoral animals treat us as dogs. We’re forced 

to take jobs serving these infidels just to earn enough money to feed ourselves and 

our families while they live in their palaces filled to the top with excess.

I’m happy to report, my friends, that this situation will not last for long. The 

end is near for Spain. Not only are our Muslim brothers’ brave actions causing 

the collapse of this illegitimate state, it is also eroding on its very own. The 

infidels are tearing down their own nation from the inside. Their love of 

money and riches is proving to be their doom. Their government has long 

focused on providing more than necessary for its people. Now their government can no longer provide, and their old are starving, their young are fighting, and their society is in disarray.

God has also handed us another victory. He has caused Spain great pain and 

suffering at the hand of its former enemy, Russia. Spain is being squashed 

under Russia’s mighty hammer as Russia deprives it of the natural gas and oil 

that is its lifeblood. Now the infidel citizens are suffering, and their government is spending its treasures to keep them alive. Spain has gone to Russia on 

its knees begging for mercy, but Russia has not backed down. Isn’t it a great 

day when one infidel nation wreaks havoc on another, and we, devoted Muslims, can stand by and watch?

With the permission of Allah, Spain will continue to bleed itself into bankruptcy, and its citizens will get a taste of the poverty and despair we’ve tasted 

in this country for decades.
66 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

My Muslim brothers, the winds of change have come to free us from oppression. We can capitalize on the failings of the Spanish government. It is weak, 

and its people are vulnerable; now is the time for us to rally. I urge you to join 

with me and the rest of your Muslim brothers in the fight against the Spanish 

infidels. In accordance with the teachings of the great Sayyid Qutb, violence 

will be our means to transform this infidel society. When we are finished, it 

will be the end of the world as the infidels know it, and we will once again live 

as respectful Muslims.

May peace and God’s mercy be upon you.

Conclusions and Recommendations

Summary of Findings

This paper describes future demographic and energy trends facing 

Western Europe and presents scenarios depicting how the convergence of these issues might affect the region. Of these trends, energy 

dependency is likely to have the least impact. However, even if Western Europe “fixes” its energy dependency issues with Russia, it will 

still have large challenges to deal with as its population ages.

There is almost no chance that the global age shift will not happen 

or will be reversed. Anyone who will be over the age of 45 in the year 

2050 has already been born.76 The factor that could change is the 

number of young people that will be present in aging societies—the 

number of people that have yet to be born. However, most demographers are confident of the population projections for the developed 

world. If the actual numbers were to be higher than currently projected, demographers don’t believe they’ll increase enough between 

now and 2030 to make a marked impact on the age structures. Therefore, without another source of workers, the worker-to-elderly ratios 

predicted for the countries of Western Europe are still destined to be 

as small as demographers’ projections.

As the scenarios depict, one of the biggest issues with hyperaging 

societies is the economic impact of “paying for” the elderly population. 

In immigration, Western Europe has potential help with this problem. 

Immigrants could represent the pool of workers Western European 

countries need to positively change their worker-to-elderly ratio and 

thereby provide an additional source of government revenue. That 

leaves migration as a credible mitigating factor to the problem of the 

worker-to-elderly ratio. How successfully that potential pool of workers 
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 67

can be utilized will partially depend on how well Western European 

governments are able to properly integrate immigrant populations.

Obviously, the most desirable of the scenarios presented is 

scenario 1—the “perfect world.” Scenario 3 is the next most desirable 

as Western European countries have addressed their most serious 

problem: mitigating the economic effect of their aging populations.

US Implications

Why should the United States care about the demographic and energy 

issues facing Western Europe? The results of the demographic and 

energy trends will have varying effects on Western Europe’s relationship with the United States. On one hand, if these future demographic 

and energy trends drain Western European economies and, consequentially, their GDPs fall, countries will find it increasingly difficult 

to fund the militaries necessary to assist with US military actions 

around the globe. A small military force would mean Western Europe 

would focus inward on territorial integrity or on small expeditionary 

operations on the Western European periphery. 77 On the other hand, 

even if GDPs are not significantly reduced, a shift in the ethnic and 

religious makeup of Western European countries could produce a 

change in political focus and greater resistances to engage in military 

actions—especially those that are not popular with growing immigrant groups with increasing domestic political influence.

Willingness to engage in global operations could also be diminished by a continuing overdependence on Russian energy supplies, 

diverting the attention of Western European countries to Russian 

political interests versus those of the United States. In both of these 

cases, national will more than military force size will determine the 

Western European decision to engage in political or military actions 

outside their immediate borders.78 Whether a small military force or 

lack of national will is the cause for Western Europe’s absence, the 

United States will pay a hefty price. Either situation would be disastrous 

to historically strong US/Western European alliances, leaving the 

United States to find other allies or go it alone in combating conditions detrimental to its national security.

This study does not present solutions to Western Europe’s demographic and energy problems. In that respect, it stops at the “act” 

phase of the scenario planning model; it offers no suggestions for 

action or scenario implications. This study instead presents the problems 
68 │ WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS

facing Western Europe and their possible impacts on US national security to generate thought and discussion on the matter. It is a starting 

point for strategic thinkers as they look at possible challenges the 

United States will face in the future. It is a vehicle for spurring creative thought about how to tackle issues surrounding future trends 

that may seem distant but that, if not discussed and analyzed now, 

will sneak up on leaders before they have a chance to even plan to act.

Notes

1. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 6.

2. Sciubba, “Defense Implication of Demographic Trends,” 121.

3. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 4.

4. Murawiec and Adamson, Demography and Security, 14.

5. CIA, “Country Comparison.”

6. Population Reference Bureau, “World Population Highlights,” 1.

7. Peterson, “Gray Dawn,” 2.

8. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 22.

9. United Nations, World Population Prospects, xi.

10. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 22.

11. Jackson and Howe, Graying of Great Powers, 1.

12. Ibid.

13. Jackson and Strauss, Geopolitics of World Population Change.

14. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 8.

15. National Intelligence Council (NIC), Global Trends 2025, 24.

16. Ibid.

17. Ibid.

18. Cohen, “Russia and the European Union,” 380.

19. Keenan and Gikas, Statistical Aspects of the Energy Economy, 4.

20. Ibid., 2.

21. Ibid.

22. European Commission, “EU-Russia Energy Relations.”

23. Smith, Russian Energy Pressure, 1.

24. Ibid.

25. Global Business Network (GBN), “Why Scenarios?”

26. Scearce, Fulton, and GBN, What If?, 7.

27. Ibid., 24–26.

28. GBN, “Why Scenarios?”

29. Ibid.

30. Scearce, Fulton, and GBN, What If?, 27–28.

31. Ibid., 28–29.

32. Ibid., 29–30.

33. Ibid., 30–31.

34. GBN, “Why Scenarios?”

35. Jackson and Howe, Graying of the Great Powers, 2.
WESTERN EUROPE’S FUTURE ROLE IN US INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS │ 69

36. Ibid.

37. Ibid.

38. Jackson, Global Retirement Crisis, 3.

39. Ibid.

40. Peterson, “Gray Dawn,” 2.

41. Jackson, Global Retirement Crisis, 6.

42. Ibid., 10.

43. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 27.

44. Ibid., 25.

45. Peterson, “Gray Dawn,” 7.

46. Ibid.

47. Jackson and Howe, Graying of the Great Powers, 12.

48. McCarthy, World Population Shifts, 18–19.

49. Jackson and Howe, Graying of the Great Powers, 3.

50. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 43.

51. Ibid., 42.

52. USJFCOM, Joint Operating Environment 2008, 13.

53. Geokas, “European Union,” 358.

54. Galvin, “Changing Face of Europe,” 53.

55. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 52.

56. Ibid., 43.

57. Ibid., 42.

58. Ibid., 51.

59. Ibid.

60. Sendagorta, “Jihad in Europe,” 65.

61. Ibid.

62. Ibid., 63.

63. USJFCOM, Joint Operating Environment 2008, 46–47.

64. USJFCOM, Joint Operating Environment 2010, 24.

65. Ibid., 29.

66. Ibid.

67. NIC, Global Trends 2025, x.

68. Ibid., 33.

69. Smith, Russian Energy Pressure.

70. Ibid.

71. Andrés Cala, “Isolated, Iran Offers to Supply Europe with Natural Gas,” New 

York Times, 6 November 2009.

72. Ibid.

73. Ibid.

74. Scearce, Fulton, and GBN, What If?, 27.

75. Keenan and Gikas, Statistical Aspects of the Energy Economy, 4.

76. Jackson and Howe, Graying of the Great Powers, 3.

77. CIA, Long-Term Global Demographic Trends, 86.

78. USJFCOM, Joint Operating Environment 2008, 24–25.

Chapter 4

Accounting for Human Information Processing

Lt Col Lourdes M. Duvall

The Air Force is the gold standard of command and control 

of air and space forces. We do that better than anyone in the 

world, but we’re not satisfied. We’re always trying to make it 

faster, better, more accurate and more flexible.

—Lt Gen Ronald E. Keys

Former Commander

Air Combat Command

Effective command and control (C2) of air and space forces is essential for maintaining a decisive advantage over any adversary.1

 Remarkable improvements in C2, “the processes and systems the commander uses to develop the strategy, to plan operations, to control 

execution, and to assess the effects in crisis or combat,” have occurred 

in the last 15 years.2

 Nevertheless, Air Force leadership continues to 

emphasize a need for drastic improvements in the coming years.3

 Key 

characteristics of future US Air Force C2 include integration of unprecedented amounts of information to produce tailored visual depictions of the battlespace, drastic reductions in decision time lines, 

and a focus on creating and assessing operational effects.4

This research proposes that USAF C2 operations would benefit 

from greater emphasis on the human aspects of information processing and decision making. This emphasis will be particularly critical in 

a future where C2 operations are characterized by increasing computer 

support, with the objective of rapid decision making and a focus on 

operational effects.

Airmen, whether the joint force air component commander 

(JFACC) or one of the thousands working in air and space operations 

centers (AOC) today, remain at the core of operational C2 decision 

processes. Therefore, human cognitive strengths and limitations and 

the principles of human-system interaction affect C2 operations. To 

maintain and expand our advantage in C2, the human aspects of 
72 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

information processing, decision making, and human-system interaction must be understood and integrated in the USAF C2 vision.

The recommendations made are not revolutionary. However, the 

improvements in operational decision making that would result are 

worth pursuing. As in other fields that emphasize extensive study of 

human-system interactions, such as aviation, medicine, and space 

operations, the stakes can be extremely high in C2. Operational mistakes 

can be a matter of life or death. They also quickly can have strategic 

ramifications that might preclude the United States from achieving 

its national objectives.

Future USAF C2 Capabilities

Understanding the desired capabilities for USAF C2 at the macro 

level is an important first step in assessing different approaches to 

achieving them. USAF vision documents and Air Force leaders consistently mention a number of desired capabilities for future C2 operations. They include providing tailored visual access to unprecedented 

amounts of battlespace information to provide predictive and common 

situational awareness (SA), enabling drastic reductions in decision 

time lines, and focusing on achievement and assessment of desired effects. Department of Defense, joint, and other service documents, such 

as Joint Vision 2020, the Office of the Secretary of Defense’s The Implementation of Network-Centric Warfare, and the Navy’s FORCEnet 

concept of operations (CONOPS), repeat similar themes.5

The US Air Force Space and C4ISR [Command, Control, Communication, Computer, Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance] 

Capabilities CONOPS—one of seven USAF-level capability CONOPS 

developed to define the conduct of current and future air and space 

operations—lists the following needed C2 capabilities among 16 

high-level requirements:

•  Locate, identify, track, and observe friendly, enemy, nonfriendly,

and nonaligned forces/actors anywhere/anytime in near real time.

•  Provide the right information to the right decision maker, at the

right time, in actionable format.

•  Assess global conditions and events.

•  Establish and maintain battlespace situational awareness.
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 73

•  Provide routine and dynamic battle management.6

The Air Force Transformation Flight Plan 2004 similarly identifies a 

“real time picture of the battlespace” and “predictive battlespace awareness” as transformational capabilities required by the Air Force to execute its CONOPS.7

 The plan cites current deficiencies in battlespace 

awareness, integration of rapidly expanding data streams, and accuracy 

of the real-time picture of the battlespace.8

 As commander of Air Force 

Materiel Command, Gen Gregory S. Martin described a need for “unprecedented battlespace visualization” and the ability to “understand 

the battlespace at a touch of a screen” to create effects in near real time.9

This desire for future C2 to operate within tighter decision time 

lines is reflected in many sources.10 Air Force Doctrine Document 

(AFDD) 2-5, Information Operations, provides a clear statement of 

this objective:

The Air Force goal is to leverage this [information] technology to achieve air, 

space, and information superiority and to be able to operate in a faster decision cycle (decision superiority) than the adversary. Decision superiority is a 

competitive advantage, enabled by an ongoing situational awareness, that allows commanders and their forces to make better-informed decisions and 

implement them faster than their adversaries can react. Decision superiority 

is about improving our ability to observe, orient, decide, and act (OODA 

loop) faster and more effectively than the adversary.11

Gen John Jumper, former Air Force chief of staff, provides a succinct version of the time compression objective, stating, “The day is 

coming . . . when the kill chain will be reliably and consistently compressed to minutes instead of hours or days, and when the sum of all 

our sensor, command and control, and information capabilities will 

be a cursor on the target and steel on the enemy.”12

Finally, the concept of effects-based operations (EBO) is central to 

the USAF discussion of future C2. The focus of EBO is “to design 

campaign actions based on desired national security outcomes rather 

than merely attacking targets to destroy adversary forces. The goal is 

to understand the effect that is desired in the battlespace and then 

create that effect more efficiently and effectively.”13 To this end, EBO 

focuses more on an adversary’s behavior than physical attributes. 

This requires extensive knowledge of an adversary’s will, the enemy’s 

values, and the dynamic perception of the conflict.14

In summary, key components of the Air Force vision for enhancing 

C2 are creating improved, shared, and tailored battlespace awareness 

using unprecedented amounts of information, significantly reducing 
74 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

the decision cycle time relative to the adversary, and focusing efforts to 

achieve desired operational and strategic effects.

Analogs in a Digital World

Machines don’t fight wars. Terrain doesn’t fight wars. Humans 

fight wars. You must get into the mind of humans. That is 

where the battles are won.

—Col John Boyd

Military Strategist

Underlying the vision for future Air Force C2 is the reality that 

information technology will play an ever-increasing role, as it will in 

almost every conceivable area of military operations. To accomplish 

the mission and win wars, Airmen will engage in two-way interactions with systems. Understanding the complementary nature of 

people and computer systems and accounting for human informationprocessing capabilities are prerequisites for designing useful systems 

that help people make better decisions. Key aspects of the design include determining the right coordination space between humans and 

technology as well as designing intuitive user interfaces to the system, 

including system layout, display, and controls. The fields of human 

factors and human-computer interaction have a critical role to play in 

future C2 systems.15 Consider a list of positive attributes of humans 

and machines developed by Donald A. Norman (table 4.1).

Table 4.1. Attributes of humans and machines

People Machines

Creative Precise

Compliant Orderly

Attentive to change Undistractible

Resourceful Unemotional

 Logical

Adapted from Donald A. Norman, The Invisible Computer (Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, 1998), 160.
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 75

The characteristics of machines—information technology—allow 

for the collection, processing, storage, dissemination, and quick and 

accurate analysis of immense amounts of data, enhanced by the ability 

to network systems across the globe for even greater combined power. 

Machines have enabled the mapping of the human genome, provided 

near-instantaneous access to the contents of the Library of Congress, 

and transformed modern warfare as demonstrated in Operations 

Enduring Freedom and Iraqi Freedom.

Yet for all of the wonders of technology, machines have not been 

able to replicate the incredible capability of the human brain. Our 

combined sensory abilities—how we think about objects and people 

and how we plan actions—are uniquely human.16 Wickens and Hollands 

said that the basic model of human information processing serves as 

a road map to highlight the amazing abilities and predictable limitations relevant to C2.17

The model depicts five major stages of human information processing: sensory processing, perception, cognition and memory, 

response selection, and execution. These roughly equate to John 

Boyd’s theories of the OODA loop, with perception, cognition, and 

memory being components of orientation.18

The first stage, sensory processing, involves how information and 

events get to our brain through our senses. The second, perception, is 

where meaning is given to the raw sensory data. It involves a combination of what is often called “bottom-up processing” driven by the 

sensory input and “top-down processing” based on inputs from longterm memory on what events are expected. The third stage, cognition 

and memory, involves the complex realms of reasoning and understanding. The fourth, response selection, is decision making. The final 

stage is execution of the selected action. Feedback, attention, and 

metacognition play important roles throughout the process. Feedback represents the idea that the results of the executed actions will, 

at some point, be sensed and perceived. Attention is the supply of 

mental resources available. Finally, metacognition is the overall 

“awareness of one’s own knowledge, effort, and thought processes.”19

The mind shows remarkable abilities for information processing, 

adapted over generations, to function in our environment. For example, 

we are able to sense small changes in our surroundings. We can also 

focus on what our mind perceives as the most important sensory inputs and block out an amazing amount of “noise” that can be selectively sampled if needed. We have the ability to pull, consciously and 
76 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

unconsciously, from complex mental models in our memory to form 

quick, creative conclusions about new inputs. Furthermore, we have 

the aptitude to select responses and execute them based on a few 

critical pieces of information without the need to process all cues 

from our environment.

For most of daily life, the power behind our incredible human information processing goes unnoticed. Our day is a series of innumerable 

OODA loops. We seem to unconsciously navigate through traffic, 

make judgments about people’s intentions, avoid dangerous situations, participate in complex social relations, and add countless mental 

representations to our memory.

Yet times when our information processes fail us often make headlines: aviation accidents, medical misdiagnoses, and industrial accidents. The human information-processing system, for all of its power, 

consistently demonstrates certain limitations. While usually of no concern, they have the potential for catastrophic consequences. These 

limitations need to be understood to enable effective C2, as they must 

for other high-risk activities, such as aviation, medicine, and industry. 

The following is a small sample of limitations found in the first four 

stages of information processing and their potential impact on C2.

From the start, sensory processing has distinctive limits. The visual 

system has sensitivity limits for contrasts and color.20 For example, 

these limitations determine whether icons on a map display show up 

as a blob or as distinct objects. The auditory system has limits in processing speech and noise, influencing how we perceive sounds and 

whether a sound effectively transmits information.21 How far can 

someone talk across an AOC floor and expect that the message will 

be heard? When should a system use an alarm to signal receipt of 

important data? These questions require designers to account for 

auditory limitations. As Wickens explains, each sensory modality appears to have particular strengths and weaknesses, and collectively 

the ensemble nicely compensates for the collective weakness of each 

sensory channel alone. Clever designers can capitalize on strengths 

and avoid weaknesses in rendering the sensory information available 

to the higher brain center for perception, interpretation, decision 

making, and further processing.22

Stepping through the information-processing model to perception, 

we find that the limitations to human attention directly influence perception. People have an imperfect ability to share attention between 

multiple cues. We are susceptible to distractions; our attention 
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 77

preference is toward an abrupt, distinct stimulus (an alarm or a 

flash) over less prominent cues.

In commercial aviation, selective attention is recognized as playing 

a considerable role in the greatest cause of fatal accidents—controlled 

flight into terrain. This has led to a number of compensating system 

design initiatives.23 In C2, another information-rich environment, 

the impact of attention limitations might not be as evident but can be 

as great. C2 systems design, to the same extent as cockpit design, requires deliberate accommodations for selective attention.

Experience also plays a role in perception. Individual experiences 

can lead operators to “see” different things from the same display/

environment. Humans sample the environment based on where they 

expect to find information. People show a preference for sources personally attributed as having the greatest value.24 Given the same cues, 

the perception and therefore the decisions and actions of experts and 

novices may significantly differ.

How information is presented or displayed is also extremely important for perception. People give some cues, such as information at 

the top of a display, stark contrasts, or an alarm, more perceptual 

weight even if that cue is not the most important. Edward Tufte provides compelling research and examples of how the data presentation 

method can influence how data is perceived and interpreted.25 His 

analysis of the ill-fated space shuttle Challenger launch shows that the 

correlation between cold weather and O-ring failure could be depicted 

in a variety of ways. Tragically, the methods NASA scientists used 

were poorly designed, and decision makers did not accurately perceive the danger.26

Practically speaking, the immense effort to collect, process, fuse, 

and display information may be of little benefit if the decision maker 

does not notice or pay attention to the information as it is presented 

or misses key data relationships. Of equal concern, the C2 environment of the future might provide such rich data presentation that 

operators might not accurately perceive that their display environment is showing only a subset of the information desired for a decision. For example, a textual human intelligence report or situation 

report from a ground unit may be more difficult to display than an 

electronic collection or video feed, yet it might have greater value for 

a decision. Critical information such as enemy morale, intentions, 

and fatigue are difficult to display yet are extremely important for 
78 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

EBO. Without purposeful study and accommodation of C2 perception, we might fly right into the mountain.

Cognition and memory also present limitations. Working memory 

is used to take in new information and update hypotheses.27 How 

much information can be maintained in working memory, its capacity 

limit, is well documented at seven plus or minus two pieces of information.28 For example, when an operator must manually transfer 

geocoordinates from one system to another, limitations of working 

memory are at play. Verbal and spatial items are only held in working 

memory for a limited time and can be easily lost if attention is diverted 

to another task. Unaccounted for, these constraints can cause data 

interpretation or input error or extend task time lines if an operator 

must reacquire the information.

Long-term memory is the storage center that provides the background knowledge to sort and evaluate new information and form 

hypotheses for decisions. Different experts describe the organization 

as associative networks, conceptual models, cognitive maps, schema, 

and mental representations.29 At a basic level, humans store items 

with related items and generate mental models about how they expect 

things to relate to one another.

There are a number of implications for C2 design related to longterm memory. Understanding the role of long-term memory is essential in the design of decision and memory aids. It is also important 

for SA since much understanding of current and future events is 

based on prior experiences stored in long-term memory. Norman 

also discusses the value of creating conceptual models for systems 

consistent with existing mental representations.30 Ideally, the conceptual model is understandable enough that the user should be able to 

discover how to use a system with little need for training or manuals 

and feel suitably in control of the operation.31

Response selection is central to any discussion about C2. While 

some C2 decisions are a result of a slow and deliberate process, a great 

many need to be made quickly. Many of the characteristics of future 

C2 closely resemble features of naturalistic decision making: an uncertain, dynamic environment; a lot of information with rapidly 

changing situational cues; time constraints or time stress; a high degree 

of risk; and multiple persons involved in the decision.32 For this kind 

of response selection in particular, people often rely on powerful and 

efficient mental shortcuts—heuristics—to make decisions. In general, 

these shortcuts provide huge advantages for quick decision making, 
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 79

particularly for experts drawing from broad experiences. They are 

able to quickly relate the current situation to past experiences to 

make a decision. However, as with other adaptive strengths in our 

information processing, heuristics have downfalls, or biases. These 

biases can lead to poor decisions, particularly when the uniqueness 

of the current situation is underestimated. The dynamic nature of 

warfare is ripe for the use of heuristics; therefore, an understanding 

of biases is essential.

People often create a hypothesis based on the first cues received 

and tend to stick to or “anchor” on the hypothesis supported by initial 

evidence. People then pay less attention to later cues, despite possibly 

being more relevant.33 In general, people more easily retrieve hypotheses 

that they considered recently or have considered frequently. If something easily comes to mind, it is common and therefore thought to be 

a good hypothesis.34 People often relate a current situation to past 

situations because a pattern of cues is similar and thus overlook differences in the situations.35 Additionally, they tend to be overconfident in their selected hypothesis and less likely to seek out evidence for alternative hypotheses or prepare for the chance that they 

are wrong.36 Finally, people tend to seek out confirming evidence for 

their working hypothesis, discount contradictory evidence, and fail 

to evaluate the absence of cues.37 Studies show this bias is more severe 

in high-stress situations where the mental workload is demanding.38

C2 systems must account for common biases through data presentation, decision aids, and training. Many demonstrated “debiasing” 

techniques could have great utility, including prompts to generate 

counterreasons to a working hypothesis, aids that highlight new information that conflicts or disconfirms earlier information/hypotheses, 

and tools that help identify and maintain awareness of unknowns and 

assumptions.39 For example, the concept of a common operational 

picture depicting all relevant information known about enemy, 

friendly, and neutral parties should be augmented by a complementary display that depicts the most critical unknowns to keep this information prominent during decision making.

In the past, a discussion of the stages of human information processing was mainly theory. Now science is quickly adding quantitative evidence to these theories. Cognitive research using advanced 

technologies, such as functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), 

is providing hard evidence on how the mind works. For example, an 
80 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

MRI can depict differences in the brain activity of a novice versus an 

expert performing the same task.40

Research is providing greater insight into the relation between visual 

and language processing, the interplay between components of working memory, and the characteristics of decision making under time 

constraints and different levels of uncertainty. As discussed earlier, each 

of these has relevance for C2.

To achieve its vision for C2, the USAF will need to harness both 

the power of machines and the human mind. The latter requires a 

commitment to account for the human component in system design 

and operations. Experts in the fields of human factors and humancomputer interaction will be invaluable for future C2 systems. 

Humans have remarkable minds and bring unmatchable attributes to 

C2, particularly for effects-based analysis and assessment. “People 

excel at perception, at creativity, at the ability to go beyond the information given, making sense of otherwise chaotic events. . . . This ability 

to put together a sensible, coherent image of the world in the face of 

limited evidence allows us to anticipate and predict events.”41 The 

challenge is to take advantage of human cognitive strengths, mitigate 

the limitations, and mesh human information processing with technology to get the most out of both.

Status Check on USAF C2 Efforts

The USAF has achieved great advances in C2 in the past 15 years. 

One measure indicative of the increased ability to conduct flexible 

and adaptive C2 operations is the percentage of sorties that received 

their targets or had their targets changed after launch during contingency operations. This percentage has steadily grown from 20 percent during Operation Desert Storm, to 43 percent during Operation 

Allied Force, to 80 percent during Operation Enduring Freedom, and 

to an estimated 90 percent during Operation Iraqi Freedom.42 Air 

Force leadership emphasis on the operational level of war in recent 

years has advanced C2, leading to the designation of the AOC as a 

weapon system in 2000 and the development of standard C2 tactics, 

techniques, and procedures and numerous new training standards 

for C2 operations.

Nevertheless, there is much work to be done, particularly with optimizing the human-system interaction component of C2 operations. 
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 81

The 2000 USAF Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) study on C2 supports more attention to this area: “Arguably, there is no other warfighting function where human-system interface (HSI) is more important than in C2 because of the volume, complexity, importance, 

and time-critical nature of C2 decision making.”43 The report cites 

the overall lack of attention and resources devoted to this important 

area, provides a number of specific recommendations, and concludes, 

“Unless these human-related issues can be resolved satisfactorily, 

there is little hope that the other corrective measures cited in this report will have the desired impact.”44

In 2004 the Air Force chief of staff, General Jumper, told a story 

suggesting that many of the SAB concerns about HSI deficiencies remain valid.

If you walked into an Air Operation Center today . . . you’ll see somebody sitting there with three work stations in front of them. You say “why do you have 

the three screens in front of you?” “Well I need to get this information off of 

this one, I enter it into this one over here, and that will give me information I 

have to enter into the third one.”

“Why don’t you have them all together?” “Well of course this company makes 

this software, this company has this one, and this company has this one.”

“Why don’t you make it so that it serves your needs?” “Well hell, I don’t know. 

Can we do that?”45

Snapshots from other perspectives of today’s C2, particularly the 

AOC system development, integration, and operational employment, 

point to systemic shortfalls in emphasizing the human cognitive 

component of C2 operations.

The system program office for the AOC used to reside in the Operational C2 Support Group at Electronic Security Command (now the 

Air Force Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance Agency). Its 

operations tempo matched that of most operational units. It fielded 

Falconer AOCs around the world and successfully worked critical 

wartime improvements. However, according to the AOC Pacific Air 

Force program manager, five years after the SAB report a procedure 

has yet to be set up for considering human factors or HSI issues 

throughout the AOC acquisition process. Program managers have no 

requirement for training on human factors or HSI. HSI expertise is 

sought out in special cases where there is an obvious problem but is 

not routinely consulted.46
82 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

At Langley AFB, another part of the Operational C2 Systems 

Group brings in the applications developed by other programs and 

integrates these independently developed systems into the AOC 

baseline. As of March 2005, the group focused on ensuring that the 

disparate systems work together within the AOC from a technical, 

engineering perspective. Little time or expertise is available to explore 

human factor considerations for specific applications, crew positions, 

or teams during systems integration.47 This lack of HSI emphasis 

might improve when the Air Force hires a lead integration contractor 

for the AOC in the coming year. However, without Air Force leadership support of more HSI research, the daunting technical challenges 

of system integration will continue to overshadow the less tangible 

human-system integration challenges.

Human-systems interface and cognitive considerations are not 

stressed in Air Force guidance for the floor plan and layout of new 

AOCs. According to Air Force Operational Tactics, Techniques, and 

Procedures (AFOTTP) 2-3.2, Air and Space Operations Center, the 

C4I system manager is responsible to the joint air operations center 

(JAOC) director to “ensure the systems are set up and operating in a 

manner that meets operational needs.”48 A JAOC operator, as knowledgeable as a JAOC systems user, mans this position. Considerations 

listed in the AFOTTP for designing the floor plan include classification requirements, available workspace, and number of personnel in 

each team/division.49 There is no mention of a need to consider human 

factors issues, nor is there any reference to experts in the Air Force 

available to provide guidance on human factors or HSI considerations.

The experiences of individuals who have served in AOCs highlight 

both the great advances in C2 within the past five years as well as 

persistent challenges of information overload, poor system design, 

and lack of attention to HSI considerations. Individuals working in 

AOCs today have near-real-time access to significantly more information sources than five years ago.50 Among these are Blue Force 

Tracker, providing positional data on friendly ground forces, and a 

proliferation of feeds from unmanned reconnaissance systems such 

as the Predator system.51 Additionally, advances in information technology, such as voice collaboration over the InfoWorkSpace collaborative tool, widely networked online chat tools, and controls that allow 

for single keyboard/mouse entry to multiple screens, have dramatically 

improved collaboration and information management capabilities.52
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 83

Nevertheless, evidence that the AOC would benefit from accentuating the human aspects of information processing and decision 

making abounds. A member of the special operations liaison element 

(SOLE) working in current operations during Operation Iraqi Freedom recalls that tasks included directly obtaining and inputting data 

related to emerging calls for fire and intelligence, surveillance, and 

reconnaissance taskings from seven different functional programs 

and two chat systems, each with a separate window display. These 

programs resided on two systems with two computer screens for display. On average, the member was responsible for monitoring 21 active 

chat sessions, both internal and external to the AOC, and two radio 

nets. Verbal communication “over the shoulder” with another operator who had a theater battle management core system, the primary 

AOC subsystem, provided other critical data. The task load also included many time-consuming processes prone to human error, such 

as the need to cut and paste chats from one chat program to the other 

for information dissemination, resulting in information overload.

Some remedies to basic HSI issues were available but largely unknown to operators. For example, there was no system or trained operator for programming key words—such as “troops in contact”—

where the chat program would set the specific screen to “blink red” 

when the key words were used. This user fix, provided to the operator 

days into major operations, proved to be potentially lifesaving.53

Other HSI remedies would require a system-level fix. Three-dimensional 

(3-D) audio could assist in discriminating between radio calls by 

making radio output “appear” to be coming from different directions. 

Using color and size variations to better highlight symbology on map 

displays could also be beneficial. For example, using slightly different 

colors and sizes for ground unit symbology could help to discriminate between units of different sizes or composition.

Promising efforts are under way. The Air Force Research Lab 

(AFRL) Human Effectiveness Directorate has programs examining 

cognitive architectures, visualization tools, and system interfaces for 

C2. A representative from AFRL with an HSI-related PhD is currently 

assigned to the C2 Battlelab. A smaller C2 program, the Battle Control 

System, which has replaced the control and reporting center, recently 

incorporated a number of HSI technologies, such as 3-D audio.54 As 

part of the new system’s development process, human factors experts 

made extensive operator observations during Joint Expeditionary 
84 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

Force Experiment 2004 to assess the performance of individuals and 

teams using the new system and to isolate HSI issues.55

However, the findings of the 2000 SAB still resonate: “Performance 

of some C2 systems is limited by counter-intuitive computer programs, unnecessary complex or error-prone procedures, excessive 

operator workload, labor-intensive training, and proliferation of local 

fixes or workarounds.”56 There is substantial room for improving the 

way USAF C2 systems account for the cognitive domain. The volume 

of information, speed of decisions, and desire for greater fidelity in 

linking means to ends are increasing within C2. The entire humanmachine system needs to be optimized to ensure we maintain our 

decision advantage. Improving C2 performance will require greater 

use of processes, tools, and technologies that deliberately account for 

human information processing and HSI.

Accounting for the Human Cognitive Domain

To expand our advantage in C2, the human aspects of information 

processing, decision making, and human-system interaction need to 

play a more central role in Air Force C2 from system design to operational use. While not a panacea, the processes, tools, and technologies 

currently available to assist in accounting for this human dimension offer 

insight into the potential of an approach that redefines how technology 

and people can best interact to make a more effective C2 system.

A necessary starting point is a human-centered development process for all USAF C2 systems. A number of models describe this type 

of process from requirements enhancement, design, development, 

and testing through fielding.57 Each model includes a systemic and 

structured approach to address HSI and human factors considerations throughout the process. As advocated by the SAB, “a structured, systems engineering approach, comparable to that employed 

routinely in the development of HSI for combat aircraft, should be 

applied in the acquisition and modernization of future C2 systems.”58

Human-centered system engineering approaches share many 

common characteristics. Each begins with an early and persistent focus 

on the user, his or her tasks, and output goals, all in the context of his 

or her work environment. Starting with user analysis, characteristics 

such as age, familiarity with similar systems, and experience are 

among the factors included in a typical operator profile.59 For example, 
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 85

the user profile for the director of combat operations in an AOC will 

be substantially different from the profile for the senior intelligence 

duty officer or an airspace management technician.60 This user analysis 

drives tailored interfaces for each group and influences the requirement for decision support systems.

Task analysis is another critical part of human-centered design. It 

includes the study of how users currently perform their tasks, workflow and information requirements, the decision-making process, 

and the underlying goals of the activity.61 A variety of well-documented 

techniques for collecting and analyzing task data are available.62

These range from observations and interviews to detailed analysis of 

how a user would perform a specific system design task.63 Task data—

particularly analysis of decision processes—is a critical input 

throughout the system engineering process.

Another important element to human-centered design is an iterative design process. This involves extensive up-front design work on 

developing and evaluating conceptual models before moving to the 

design of detailed user interfaces. By using paper mock-ups or other 

prototypes of high-level design concepts, users and designers can 

evaluate various alternatives and eliminate major usability problems 

early on. A good example is the design work done by the US Strategic 

Command (USSTRATCOM) C2 modernization team in 2001–2 

while developing a state-of-the-art video display system in the 

USSTRATCOM commander’s situation room. The team and user 

groups evaluated—with mock-ups and limited prototypes—over 30 

design concepts before they arrived at the selected design.64

In a human-centered approach, the focus is not on automating 

tasks. Rather, it is on determining the best cooperation between humans 

and technology for given tasks, acknowledging the importance of 

creating a consistent conceptual model for users, and explicitly 

addressing usability and human-computer interaction factors to 

achieve the specific performance goals. User feedback and expert observation continue throughout the process and real-world operational 

use to inform system upgrades and modifications.

Fortunately, a growing toolbox is available to help address usability 

and HSI factors. For example, cognitive architectures are an increasingly promising tool for quantitative predictions of some aspects of 

HSI. Michael Byrne defines cognitive architecture as “a broad theory of 

human cognition based on a wide selection of human experimental 

data and implemented as a running computer simulation.”65 Susan 
86 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

Chipman and David Kieras describe the term as referring to “the 

(relatively) fixed features of the human information processing system, 

the basic characteristics of the typical human operator.”66

According to Chipman, manager of the Cognitive Science Program at the Office of Naval Research, recent advances in cognitive 

science research have led to the development of computational 

cognitive architecture theories that are “making it possible to make 

precise quantitative predictions about human performance in quite 

complex situations.”67 Cognitive architectures can be compared to an 

aerospace engineer’s use of computer simulations to represent the 

quantitative theory of aerodynamics. Engineers can run a design 

through computational fluid dynamic models instead of only wind 

tunnels.68 Similarly, cognitive architectures provide repeatable, quantitative predictions about human performance and information processing that in the past was applied to the design of systems by observations, intuition, and experience.

Current cognitive architectures can model some aspects of human 

information processing such as sensory interaction with computer 

displays, capacity limits of working memory, memory retrieval, and 

motor control.69 “It is possible to use model predictions instead of 

user testing for a large fraction of the system design effort,” Dr. Chipman 

said.70 Based on predictions of cognitive workload, designers can revise 

interfaces or select different interface alternatives, enhancing usability 

before building prototypes for a system. For time-sensitive decision 

tasks, cognitive models help identify both human and design limitations that can effect achieving desired time goals.

Cognitive architectures have a number of specific limitations. Currently, they are best at modeling “the relatively simple forms of perception and motor action that are typically involved in interacting 

with computer displays and computer input devices, as opposed to 

the full complexity of perception and action in the natural world.”71

The architectures, consisting of hard-to-use, complex software, 

require development efforts to connect models with each new interface and good knowledge of the tasks to be performed.72 Fortunately, 

researchers are making progress and are using the latest cognitive research to build more comprehensive models.73

Another set of tools with great application for USAF C2 systems 

includes measures and methodologies to assess SA and decision processes. SA is our perception of elements in the environment, 

comprehension of their meaning, and projection of their status in 
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 87

the future.74 The vision for USAF C2 cites requirements for battlespace 

SA and predictive battlespace awareness. Research suggests that “situational awareness is one of the most important components of effective decision making.”75 However, one of the ironies of automation is 

that it can lead to reduced SA—exactly the opposite of the desires for 

USAF C2. Wickens et al. state that “people are better aware of the 

dynamic state of processes in which they are active participants.”76 A 

person who is out of the loop while technology collects, processes, 

and analyzes information without human intervention and is then 

provided a recommendation for action might not have the requisite 

SA to make an appropriate and timely decision. There is a tradeoff 

between the benefits of automation in terms of speed and reduced 

workload and the potential degradation in SA required for decision 

making. Similarly, there are tradeoffs between reducing information 

overload through data presentation of fused information and providing requisite access to raw data that can influence SA. As described in 

the Navy FORCEnet concept, “while an information-processing 

capability is necessary so that commanders do not need to wade 

through seas of mostly unimportant data, commanders must not be 

isolated from the data level. They must have direct access to the raw 

data as needed because they often base their understanding on a few 

key pieces of information.”77

Also related to SA is metacognition—a person’s understanding of 

what he or she does not know and the limitations of his or her thought 

processes. Studies have shown that when the sum of the knowable 

information is not apparent, people often overestimate the amount of 

relevant information they have obtained. This situation can lead to an 

inflated assessment of confidence level in their analysis or SA.78 Providing a realistic sense of uncertainty is essential for decision making.

Determining how C2 systems can enhance SA and allow operators 

to accurately assess their level of uncertainty requires a study of operators in their environment. It involves gauging how much SA they 

have at a given point in time, how SA evolves over time, and how SA 

deviates from the known ground truth or that of an expert.79 Dr. Valerie 

Gawron, an expert in SA assessment, provides a description of a 

number of measurement tools in the Human Performance Measures 

Handbook. Many were developed to measure pilot or aircrew SA in 

flight; however, they can be generalized to other systems.80

Basic SA tools combined with advanced data capture and retrieval 

instruments and with analysis methodologies, such as process tracing, 
88 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

can help account for how SA evolves over time and how automated 

processes affect it.81 Process tracing uses multiple data collection 

methods at various stages of the decision process in either a realistic 

exercise or operational setting.82 Observations of decision makers’ or 

analysts’ actions, communications, and decisions, along with data 

captures of what information is potentially available to them for decisions, are used to characterize their SA and decision processes. One 

of the great benefits of this approach is that it helps assess the contributions of both technological and human aspects to SA and decision 

making. In an AFRL-sponsored study, a process-tracing methodology 

provided significant insight into how intelligence analysts dealt with 

data overload in a time-constrained environment.83 Potential sources 

for poor SA, such as information overload, or inadequate display 

design can be isolated using process tracing.

As in aviation, tools that evaluate operator SA and decision processes under realistic conditions can help with C2 system design. 

These tools aid critical trade-off decisions among automation, SA, 

and focus training.

Finally, USAF C2 can exploit new areas of technological development to improve HSI and decision making. These range from controls and displays to visualization tools to decision support systems. 

The 2000 USAF SAB assessed 34 HSI technologies for potential 

USAF C2 applications and concluded that the Air Force “has not fully 

exploited HSI technologies, automation, and decision support tools 

that are available or under development for other applications.”84

Four of the most promising areas SAB and HSI experts identify include information visualization, untethered computing, decision 

support systems, and system recording capability.

Advances in computing have opened up new opportunities to 

augment our cognitive ability through information visualization, 

exploiting our visual strengths to understand increasing amounts of 

information. Successful information visualization can present large 

amounts of data tailored to a real task or problem and also allows users 

to get to desired specifics without being overwhelmed.85 Examples of 

powerful information visualization tools, such as SmartMoney’s 

“Map of the Market,” demonstrate the power of creative information 

visualization in a task that requires interpretation of large amounts of 

data.86 Numerous AOC tasks—such as target development, airspace 

deconfliction, and assessment—would benefit from imaginative approaches to information visualization to augment the spreadsheets 
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 89

and maps used today. Since the format of the presentation of information has such an influence on understanding, technologies that 

provide the ability to display data/information in various formats, 

such as net diagrams, trees, 3-D, tables, or maps, can provide opportunities to better understand the information and critical relationships.

As the amount of available information grows, C2 tasks will increasingly benefit from tailored information visualization tools that 

provide an overview of data, enable dynamic queries, allow easy 

zoom on specific areas and filter data, and provide details on demand.87 Visualization works because it increases human memory 

and processing resources, reduces search requirements by presenting 

large amounts of data in a small space, enhances detection of patterns, and offers greater exploration of data relationships.88

C2 organizations could also significantly benefit from the use of 

untethered computers and/or transportable credentials for certain 

duty positions. The convergence of a number of technological advances—

such as those in semiconductor power, mobile communications, and 

miniature displays—has led to the development of powerful untethered 

or wearable computers.89 For example, these systems would allow individuals to move to different areas of the AOC to collaborate with 

other teams while maintaining access to their system displays, databases, and other information sources and staying in communication 

with other groups. The systems could allow decision makers dynamic 

interaction with information displays or provide for speech or other 

input to systems.90 Evaluations of various wearable computers show 

significant time savings for a variety of tasks where immediate access 

to data on the move is required.91 Security considerations may hamper 

widespread use of this technology, but a risk/benefit analysis is 

needed. Additionally, technologies such as multilevel security thin 

clients that accept a common access card for user authentication, 

tailoring the system to the specific user’s profile, may provide a similar 

effect in terms of mobility and access to data without the security 

concerns.92 Both technologies provide advantages for collaboration 

and continual access to data sources.

Decision support systems enable cooperative problem solving and 

decision making by taking advantage of the strengths of each. Simple 

decision support systems can provide a “flag” to focus attention or 

alert decision makers to critical events, such as the “flash red” chat 

window.93 More advanced systems, such as the Pilot’s Associate project, 

a joint effort of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency 
90 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

(DARPA) and the US Air Force, have demonstrated an ability to significantly augment and enhance human judgment in a time-urgent, 

high-stakes environment of combat aviation.94 The US Navy Space 

and Naval Warfare Systems Center–San Diego has extensive experience 

designing decision support systems for a variety of C2 tasks, most 

recently under the Tactical Decision Making under Stress (TADMUS), 

Command 21, and USSTRATCOM Knowledge Wall programs.95 Decision support tools developed for TADMUS have resulted in better SA 

and reductions in decision errors in antiair warfare missions.96

Decision support systems designed with an understanding of human 

performance and the decision-making process greatly enhance C2 in 

terms of efficiency (time) and decision quality. The systems can alert 

decision makers to possible biases in decision processes, conduct information management to support decision needs, and act on behalf 

of the user when authorized. They will provide much of the foundation needed to achieve the USAF C2 vision.

Another useful technology is a system recording capability to 

“provide the AOC with the ‘performance instrumentation’ that is 

similar to that used to characterize and improve the performance of 

test aircraft.”97 Technologies exist to record screen captures of AOC 

displays and index them with time-matched database captures and 

other related decision information. These technologies are essential 

for the process-tracing methodology and SA assessment. The USAF 

SAB envisioned numerous other excellent uses for these technologies, 

in that “such a system could be used for briefings, debriefings, crew 

changeover, post-mission effectiveness assessment, requirements 

definition, training, experimentation, and development of decisionsupport tools.”98

If the USAF chooses to pursue a more human-centered approach 

for C2, it will not be in uncharted territory. At its disposal are wellestablished processes, exciting tools based on the latest psychological 

research, and commercially available technologies. Within the Air 

Force, many of the processes and tools discussed are used in the development of combat aircraft. Within the larger C2 community are 

exciting efforts sponsored by DARPA, the US Navy, and AFRL relevant to future USAF C2 challenges.

Clearly, the limits to our understanding of human information 

processing as well as of information technology will remain barriers 

to achieving optimum HSI. However, enough is known and available 
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 91

to be of value to other high-stake endeavors. These processes, tools, 

and technologies should be applied more systematically to USAF C2.

Conclusion

While changes in the information environment have led 

some to focus solely on the contribution of information 

superiority to command and control, it is equally necessary 

to understand the complete realm of command and control 

decision making, the nature of organizational collaboration, 

and especially, the “human in the loop.”

—Chairman of the Joint

Chiefs of Staff

Joint Vision 2020

The science behind our understanding of how the human mind 

works is growing rapidly. In How the Mind Works, Steven Pinker 

describes how dozens of mysteries of the mind “have recently been 

upgraded to problems” because, while we may not know the solution, 

we now have greater insight and know what we are looking for.99

Numerous areas, such as aviation and medicine, have a history of 

practical application of cognitive research to system design and engineering with an emphasis on human-system interaction.

There is a growing need for USAF C2 to join other high-risk endeavors and apply cognitive research more consistently, from system 

design to actual operations. Achieving predictive and tailored SA, 

drastic reductions in decision time lines, and decisive EBO will 

clearly require incredible contributions from advanced technologies. 

However, in the end, decision superiority occurs in the minds of people. 

A great challenge is to create a C2 system that deliberately teams humans with technology to play on the strengths and to cover the weaknesses of each. It is not clear that the Air Force is currently positioned 

to meet this challenge.

Many of the 2000 SAB recommendations related to HSI remain 

open. The Air Force has not adopted a structured engineering approach 

that accounts for HSI at all stages of C2 acquisition processes. The ties 

between laboratory-based theoretical research and operationally relevant problems, particularly in the AOC, appear weak. The use of 

HSI-related technologies, such as advanced visualization tools and 
92 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

decision support systems, is limited. Data overload is a real and growing issue.

As the Air Force expands its networks, obtains more sensors, and 

harnesses greater computing processing power to fuse, analyze, and 

display data, the issues of HSI become more complex. Removing decision makers from the sources of information through automated 

fusion—if not approached with an understanding of how humans 

form mental representations—could be a limiting factor to achieving 

SA. Faster decision time lines may drive people to rely more on mental 

shortcuts, introducing predictable biases that influence the quality of 

decision making. Rich data presentation environments could mask a 

lack of information on critical cues for effects-based operations, such 

as our adversary’s behavior, intent, and motivations.

Accounting for the human aspects of information processing and 

decision making in C2 presents unique challenges. The AOC is a conglomeration of hundreds of positions, a myriad of tasks, dozens of 

systems, and a wide range of experience levels. It is not a cradle-tograve program with extensive influence over initial system design 

where HSI considerations can have the greatest benefit. The AOC 

integrates systems developed by other programs and does not have 

in-house expertise to adequately address human factors or HSI considerations. It also does not have the long-standing institutional infrastructure to supports HSI, unlike aviation systems engineering. 

While not nearly as bounded a challenge as examining aircrew and 

aircraft interactions, the AOC is arguably equally important.

This paper concludes that even small improvements in the application of human factors and HSI principles can matter. An HSI expert 

observing the decision needs of the SOLE liaison may have identified 

the simple decision support system fix during a workup exercise, 

helping to create more specific chat procedures. Greater awareness 

within the AOC program office and among C2 operators of the research efforts of DARPA, the Office of Naval Research, AFRL, and 

commercially available technologies could generate imaginative ideas 

for near-term practical applications in USAF C2. Any efforts that deliberately tie human factors expertise and laboratory-based research 

to current C2 operations and system development are likely to have 

payoffs. Human factors and HSI should not be an afterthought.
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 93

Notes

1. Joint Publication (JP) 3-30, Command and Control, I-1; and Air Force Doctrine Document (AFDD) 2, Organization and Employment of Aerospace Power, 5.

2. USAF Scientific Advisory Board (SAB), Report on Air Force Command and 

Control, vol. 2, 1-2. 

3. Jumper, “Future Force”; Martin, address to the Air Force Association (AFA); 

and Martin, address to the AFA Policy Forum.

4. US Air Force Space and C4ISR Capabilities CONOPS, 10–11; and Department 

of the Air Force, US Air Force Transformation Flight Plan, 45.

5. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Vision 2020, 10–13, 28–29; DOD, 

Implementation of Network-Centric Warfare, 8–10; and Department of the Navy, 

FORCEnet, 2, 7, 11–19.

6. US Air Force Space and C4ISR Capabilities CONOPS, 10–11.

7. Department of the Air Force, US Air Force Transformation Flight Plan, 45.

8. Ibid., 54.

9. Martin, address to the AFA; and Martin, command briefing, slides.

10. DOD, Implementation of Network-Centric Warfare, 9; and US Air Force Space 

and C4ISR Capabilities CONOPS, II, 1, 4.

11. AFDD 2-5, Information Operations, 1.

12. Jumper, “Chief ’s Sight Picture.”

13. Department of the Air Force, US Air Force Transformation Flight Plan, 6–7.

14. AFDD 2, “Operations and Organization,” 16.

15. The field of human factors is generally defined in broad terms as a subset of 

engineering with a focus on “system design, accounting for those factors, psychological and physical, that are properties of the human component” (Wickens, Lee, 

and Becker, Introduction to Human Factors Engineering, 6). Human-computer interaction is a multidisciplinary field incorporating research and theories from computer science, psychology, anthropology, education, design, engineering, math, and 

physics concerned with the design, operation, and evaluation of user interfaces to 

ensure technology is usable, universal, and useful for human needs (Jacko and Sears, 

Human-Computer Interaction Handbook, xvi, 19).

16. Pinker, How the Mind Works, 5.

17. Wickens and Hollands, Engineering Psychology and Human Performance, 11, 295.

18. Fadok, “John Boyd and John Warden,” 16.

19. Wickens and Hollands, Engineering Psychology and Human Performance, 297.

20. Wickens et al., Introduction to Human Factors Engineering, 69–73.

21. Ibid., 91.

22. Ibid., 119.

23. Ibid., 123.

24. Wickens and Hollands, Engineering Psychology and Human Performance, 69–70.

25. Tufte, Visual Explanations.

26. Ibid., 38–53.

27. Wickens et al., Introduction to Human Factors Engineering, 128–29.

28. Ibid., 129.

29. Ibid., 136; Norman, Invisible Computer, 173; and Pinker, How the Mind 

Works, 85–88.
94 │ ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING

30. Norman, Invisible Computer, 154.

31. Ibid., 180.

32. Wickens et al., Introduction to Human Factors Engineering, 162.

33. Ibid., 165. These biases are referred to as the anchoring heuristic and cognitive 

tunneling, respectively.

34. Ibid., 166. This bias is called the availability heuristic.

35. Ibid. This bias is called representativeness/analogies.

36. Ibid. This bias is referred to as overconfidence.

37. Ibid., 167; and Schrag, “First Impressions Matter,” 37–83.

38. Wickens et al., Introduction to Human Factors Engineering. Greater detail on all 

of the biases discussed can be found in Gilovich, Griffin, and Kahneman, Heuristics 

and Biases.

39. Neustadt and May, Thinking in Time, 273–75.

40. Chipman and Kieras, “Operator Centered Design,” 20; and St. John et al., 

“Overview of the DARPA [Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency].”

41. Norman, Invisible Computer, 136.

42. Department of the Air Force, US Air Force Transformation Flight Plan, 54.

43. USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 1, 51.

44. Ibid., 54.

45. Jumper, “Future Force.”

46. Maj Dwayne Gardner, AOC Weapon System Program Office, interview by 

the author, 8 April 2005.

47. Maj Thomas Gill, ESC/RC, interview by the author, 7 February 2005.

48. Air Force Operational Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (AFOTTP) 2-3.2, 

Air and Space Operations Center, 2.7–2.8.

49. Ibid.

50. Maj Daniel Simpson, interview by the author, 20 March 2005; Maj Jill Bergovoy, 

interview by the author, 15 April 2005; and personal experience of the author.

51. Tiboni and French, “Blue Force Tracking.”

52. Simpson, interview.

53. Ibid.

54. Bergovoy, interview.

55. Garrambone, Goodman, and Hughes, “Battle Control Center,” 2–5.

56. USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 1, 51.

57. Norman, Invisible Computer, 184; Mayhew, “Requirements Specification,” 

915; and USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 1, 52.

58. USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 1, 52.

59. Mayhew, “Requirements Specification,” 914.

60. AFOTTP 2-3.2, Air and Space Operations Center, 4-95, 5-6, 6-5.

61. Redish and Wixon, “Task Analysis,” 935.

62. Wickens et al., Introduction to Human Factors Engineering, 41; and Redish 

and Wixon, “Task Analysis,” 928–34.

63. Chipman and Kieras, “Operator Centered Design,” 9–10; and Redish and 

Wixon, “Task Analysis,” 923.

64. Hinckley, interview.

65. Byrne, “Cognitive Architecture,” 98.

66. Chipman and Kieras, “Operator Centered Design,” 3.
ACCOUNTING FOR HUMAN INFORMATION PROCESSING │ 95

67. Ibid., 5.

68. Byrne, “Cognitive Architecture,” 99.

69. Ibid., 104–15; and Chipman and Kieras, “Operator Centered Design,” 2–7. 

Byrne and Chipman and Kieras provide details on the most prominent cognitive 

architectures in use today: SOAR [State, Operator and Result], EPIC [ExecutiveProcess/Interactive Control], and ACT-R [Adaptive Control of Thought—Rational].

70. Chipman and Kieras, “Operator Centered Design,” 9.

71. Ibid., 18.

72. Byrne, “Cognitive Architecture,” 115.

73. Ibid.

74. Wickens et al., Introduction to Human Factors Engineering, 143; and Gawron, 

Human Performance Measures Handbook, 155.

75. Wickens and Hollands, Engineering Psychology, 298.

76. Wickens et al., Introduction to Human Factors Engineering, 427.

77. Department of the Navy, FORCEnet, 25.

78. Patterson, Roth, and Woods, “Aiding the Intelligence Analyst,” 27.

79. Miller and Shattuck, “Process Model of Situated Cognition,” 3.

80. Gawron, Human Performance Measures Handbook, 155–67.

81. Miller and Shattuck, “Process Model of Situated Cognition,” 7.

82. Ibid.

83. Patterson, Roth, and Woods, “Aiding the Intelligence Analyst.”

84. USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 1, 52.

85. Merholz, “Information Visualization,” 43.

86. Card, “Information Visualization,” 547–49; and Merholz, “Information Visualization,” 42.

87. Card, “Information Visualization,” 547.

88. Ibid., 552.

89. Siewiorek and Smailagic, “User-Centered Interdisciplinary Design,” 636.

90. USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 2, 5-23.

91. Siewiorek and Smailagic, “User-Centered Interdisciplinary Design,” 652–54.

92. Gardner, interview.

93. USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 2, 5-23.

94. Smith and Geddes, “Cognitive Systems Engineering,” 666–70.

95. San Diego Knowledge Management and Decision Support.

96. Moore et al., “Understanding and Improving Knowledge,” 8.

97. USAF SAB, Report on Air Force Command and Control, vol. 2, 5-24.

98. Ibid.

99. Pinker, How the Mind Works, ix.

Chapter 5

Arctic Security: An Adaptive

Approach for a Changing Climate

Lt Col Christopher S. Kean and Cdr David C. Kneale

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most 

intelligent; it is the one that is most adaptable to change.

—Charles Darwin

Overview

Climate change in the Arctic potentially can create severe, longlasting impacts on global security. As a result, warming Arctic waters 

present new challenges to US national security interests that can be 

categorized into three main areas: (1) heightened sovereignty disputes over access to natural resources, commercial shipping routes, 

and increased military presence; (2) environmental security resulting 

from changing ecosystems; and (3) human security of indigenous 

Arctic cultures and members of the global community due to changing migration patterns. Faced with new resource challenges from climate 

change, human and animal populations will be forced to adapt, migrate, or face extinction. These three main concerns are inherently 

interdependent and tied to the interplay of national interests in 

energy, economy, and environment.

What exactly has changed in the Arctic? A steadily changing natural 

climate has brought a daunting duality of resource competition and 

environmental concern. A report from a conference on the Arctic at 

the National Defense University (NDU) states, “Climate change is 

gradually uncovering an Arctic which stands at the crossroads of development and risk.”1

 The challenge facing the United States as a 

world leader is how to harness the uncertain future of the Arctic as a 

possible turning point. Therefore, the strategic outlook for US 

national security needs to consider both the current political and 

natural environment with caution for the sustainable future. Past 

paradigms of political realism and classical economics may not best 
98 │ ARcTIC SECURITY

fit the sustainable development of the Arctic, making traditional 

sovereignty and resource interests secondary to more important security 

concerns. Instead, the shared natural environment and its understanding through the scientific community may be the new drivers to 

shape the political response to climate change. The United States 

must reprioritize its long-term security interests to achieve a sustainable Arctic strategy.

Current US Strategy

The 2006 National Security Strategy (NSS) outlines a basic backbone to a strategy for the Arctic: “We choose leadership over isolationism, and the pursuit of free and fair trade and open markets over 

protectionism. We choose to deal with challenges now rather than 

leaving them for future generations.”2

 The NSS also specifically mentions the need to “engage the opportunities and confront the challenges of globalization.”3

 Essentially this means that “many of the 

problems we face . . . reach across borders.”4

 The Bush administration 

said, “Effective multinational efforts are essential to solve these problems. Yet history has shown that only when we do our part will others 

do theirs. America must continue to lead.”5

 These statements imply 

that an effective Arctic strategy is one that the United States does not 

pursue alone. More importantly, the changing natural and political 

environment presents a timely stage for the United States to embrace 

a leadership role to ensure responsible actions by Arctic nations.

Regarding the Arctic, however, current US engagement policies do 

not follow the guidance articulated in the NSS. Two key examples of 

this are the failure of the United States to ratify the United Nations 

Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the Kyoto Protocol 

for greenhouse gas emissions. On 12 January 2009, during his final 

days in office, Pres. George W. Bush released a new Arctic Region Policy, 

replacing the one from 1994. The new policy emphasizes the need to 

protect US resource interests in the Arctic and identify new areas for 

international cooperation. In the Obama administration, the United 

States can lead on issues involving the changing climate in the Arctic 

derived from a perception of newfound American “soft power” 

appeal.6

 In addition, a more liberal-minded Congress may be more 

apt to adopt the administration’s spirit of change in general and, 

therefore, more actively pursue a sustainable multilateral Arctic strategy. 

A US decision to lead peaceful multinational efforts in the region 
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 99

could also bolster this soft power. If it is true, as stated in the NDU 

report, that “policy initiatives in the next 5–10 years will disproportionately influence US strategic posture in the Arctic over the next 

half century,”7

 the Arctic should be a high priority for the Obama 

administration. As suggested in the current NSS, the United States 

must face these challenges now.

Research Methodology

The NDU report highlighted that the biggest challenge in the region 

is that the United States has “so far excluded itself from an emerging 

international framework designed to manage the anticipated 

changes.”8

 The report recommends three possible options for US policy 

makers with varying degrees of multilateral cooperation:

1. Retain current levels of low international involvement (status quo).

2. Pursue “limited enhancement” to US security strategy through 

more cooperation and specific articulation of US national interests.

3. Pursue “enhanced engagement,” which outlines short- and 

long-term actions to engage in the region.9

This research is, in large part, a calculated response to the report, 

as it explores the impact of these three options on US security. The 

research method used is the problem/solution method. The problem 

examined is how US national strategy should address the uncertain 

future geopolitical environment in the warming waters of the Arctic. 

This study explores solutions to mitigate threats to US national security while balancing economic rights and environmental responsibilities, both of which are in the interests of US strategy for future 

involvement in the Arctic. More specifically, the research process revealed four criteria for comparing potential solutions. US Arctic 

strategy must

1. peacefully resolve territorial sovereignty issues and promote 

free trade economics,

2. mitigate risks to human and environmental security in the region 

and around the globe,

3. provide a long-term solution to the sustainable development of 

the Arctic, and

4. include a mechanism for enforcement and monitoring compliance.
100 │ ARcTIC SECURITY

This paper is organized into four main areas: natural environment, 

economics, politics, and science. The research explores these interrelated subjects as they are assessed in the context of US national 

security and relevance to Arctic strategy. Next, an options analysis 

compares the three basic options from the NDU report using the criteria 

for success. An additional analysis compares current US Arctic 

Region Policy and the 1994 policy using the same criteria. Lastly, the 

author makes overall conclusions and recommendations.

Natural Environment

Perhaps indicative of the challenge to fostering true international 

cooperation in the Arctic, the very definition of “Arctic” is still subject to debate. The region around the earth’s North Pole bounded by 

the Arctic Circle is the most widely accepted definition. The Arctic 

Circle circumscribes the earth through the eight “Arctic nations” of 

Russia, Finland, Sweden, Norway, Iceland, Denmark (Greenland), 

Canada, and the United States. Defined as the southernmost latitude 

that experiences the phenomena of midnight sun and polar night, the 

Arctic Circle defines a definite geophysical boundary. However, other 

boundaries are recognized based on ecology and climate, for example 

the 10° Celsius (C) (50° Fahrenheit [F]) July isotherm (appendix A). 

This climatologic definition roughly corresponds to the ecological 

boundary formed by the Arctic tree line. Until recently, this defined 

where life transitioned from more temperate sub-Arctic plants and 

animals to the treeless frozen tundra and polar ice cap with their 

unique and delicate Arctic life forms.

As global warming pushes temperate species steadily northward, 

the size of the Arctic is decreasing.10 Effectively, the Arctic climate 

and the Arctic species that thrive within it are being steadily pushed 

off the planet. It was precisely this realization that prompted former 

US interior secretary Dirk Kempthorne to announce in May 2008 

that “the drastic loss of Arctic sea ice had forced him to list the polar 

bear as an endangered species because their populations could collapse within a few decades.”11

The most dominating physical feature of the Arctic is the Arctic 

Ocean. Geologically unique, it is commonly recognized as the smallest 

and shallowest of the world’s oceans. However, oceanographers define 

it as a “mediterranean” sea, defined in oceanographic terms as “a mostly 
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 101

enclosed sea that has limited exchange of deep water with outer oceans 

and where the water circulation is dominated by salinity and temperature differences rather than winds.”12 Other dissenters see it as the 

northernmost lobe of a single world ocean. While “Arctic Sea” may be 

a more geologically accurate term, to avoid confusion this research will 

use the term Arctic Ocean.

Sea Change

A sea change is taking place in the Arctic, both literally and figuratively, with profound geologic, climatic, economic, commercial, environmental, and political implications. The Arctic Ocean is largely 

covered by sea ice a majority of the year. Melting induced by global 

warming has increased the extent to which it is ice free, particularly 

in the summer months. Earth’s climate varies gradually over long 

periods of time with cooling and warming periods evidenced by cyclical 

glacial formation and retreat. However, without including a component for human-induced variations, climate models cannot account 

for the rapid pace of Arctic sea ice melting.13 This human warming 

component is due to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels 

from human activity such as fossil fuel (oil, coal, and natural gas) usage 

and deforestation.14

September 2007 witnessed a new record minimum Arctic summer 

ice cover of just 4.3 million square kilometers, which was 39 percent 

below the long-term average from 1979 to 2000.15 This was nearly 

repeated again in September 2008 with just 4.7 million square kilometers of ice cover.16 Professor Wieslaw Maslowski, a researcher from 

the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterrey, California, believes the 

pace of melting has quickened to the point where the Arctic could be 

ice free in the summer as soon as 2013.17 Presciently, his prediction 

was made prior to the drastic new record minimum set in 2007 using 

data from 1979 to 2004.

The Arctic is warming at a significantly faster rate than the rest of 

the planet. According to the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental 

Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “The warming in the last 30 years 

is widespread over the globe, and is greatest at higher northern 

latitudes. . . . Average arctic temperatures have been increasing at almost twice the rate of the rest of the world in the past 100 years.”18

Scientists believe one reason for this uneven warming has to do with 

Arctic albedo, which refers to how well a surface reflects solar energy. 
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Snow-covered ice reflects roughly 90 percent of solar energy. As snow 

and sea ice melt, the darker ocean left behind reflects just 6 percent of 

this energy, absorbing 94 percent into the water.19 This solar absorption causes ocean water to warm, melting more ice, exposing additional ocean surface to solar absorption, and thus creating a selfreinforcing melting cycle commonly known as an “albedo feedback loop.”

A similar feedback loop is believed to occur on land as the Arctic 

tree line slowly advances northward and the darker trees absorb more 

solar energy than the snow-covered tundra they replace. Further still, 

as permafrost thaws, large amounts of carbon dioxide and methane 

trapped in the permafrost are released into the atmosphere, producing yet another feedback that increases warming and thaws more 

permafrost. In this way, it is believed that the Arctic has been acting 

as a “heat sink” for a warming world.

The melting of sea ice and warming of frigid Arctic waters absorb 

a tremendous amount of heat energy, which has had a mitigating effect on the rise of heat globally. Predictions of this sea-ice heat sink 

disappearing in the summer foretell a future where rates of global 

temperature rise may increase sharply. Dr. Mark Serreze, a geographer 

at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, has stated, “We could think 

of the Arctic as the refrigerator of the northern hemisphere climate 

system. What we are doing by getting rid of that sea ice is radically 

changing the nature of that refrigerator. We are making it much less 

efficient. But everything is connected together so what happens up 

there eventually influences what happens in other parts of the globe.”20

The profound changes occurring in the Arctic Ocean could have 

catastrophic effects on global climate by affecting a mechanism 

known as thermohaline circulation. Thermohaline circulation refers 

to the ocean temperature and salinity variations that help drive the 

conveyor of ocean currents. Ocean currents play a critical role in determining regional and global weather patterns. A radically changed 

ice-free Arctic, coupled with runoff from a thawing Greenland ice 

sheet, could alter the current temperature and salinity balance of the 

North Atlantic Ocean enough to slow or even collapse the thermohaline circulation.21 The effects would be rapid, global, and catastrophic. 

Estimates are that England and northwestern Europe would be most 

affected, becoming colder, drier, and windier, much like Siberia.22

This scenario is not as unlikely as it sounds. Climatic records obtained 

through Greenland ice core samples indicate at least eight abrupt 

cooling episodes documented in the geological record going back 
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730,000 years. The most recent event occurred 8,200 years ago, lasted 

for roughly 100 years, and resulted in an average annual temperature 

decrease in Greenland of 5° F.23 By historical standards, this was a 

relatively minor event and more likely involved just a slowing of 

ocean circulation. More dramatically, roughly 12,700 years ago, an 

event known as the Younger Dryas appears to have been precipitated 

by a total collapse of thermohaline circulation. The effects were much 

more severe, with a cooling of over 27° F in Greenland that lasted 

over 1,000 years.24

Geologically speaking these are recent events, yet modern human 

civilization has never been subjected to weather conditions so persistently disruptive. Dr. Robie Macdonald, a leading Canadian oceanographer who has worked with the IPCC, worries, “The Arctic really 

can feed back into the global climate system. You know what happens 

when you get feedbacks—you get surprises and we don’t like surprises.”25 Clearly, mankind would be ill-advised to assume that global 

warming will progress gradually. Changes in the Arctic could have 

profound effects upon the earth’s climates and the creatures depending on those climates for survival.

Climate Change Impacts in the Arctic

The effects of global warming are becoming increasingly difficult 

for scientists to disprove. To put it in perspective, the earth’s surface 

temperature has increased approximately 1.4° F in the last 150 years 

and as much as 5° F in certain areas, such as the Arctic region.26 More 

pertinent to the issue, though, is the rapidity of the current temperature increases; most recent scientific studies on Arctic melting highlight that earlier models were much too conservative. In fact, an April 

2007 news release from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reported that “September ice actually declined at a 

rate of about 7.8 percent per decade during the 1953–2006 period.”27

This was contrasted with earlier model projections from the IPCC 

that showed a 2.5 percent average decline per decade for this time 

period (appendix B).

The NCAR news release emphasized that “the shrinking of summertime ice is about 30 years ahead of the climate model projections. As 

a result, the Arctic could be seasonally free of sea ice earlier than the 

IPCC-projected timeframe of any time from 2050 to well beyond 

2100.”28 More recently, within the Global Environment Outlook: Envi-
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ronment for Development (GEO-4) report, the IPCC revealed observations showing an average decline of 8.9 percent per decade.29 The 

point is that the global climate is changing more rapidly than anticipated, particularly in the Arctic. As a result, the warming climate in 

the Arctic is drastically altering the stability of the Arctic’s natural 

environment, as indicated in the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), an international effort of hundreds of scientists assisted 

by the knowledge of indigenous people:

The increasingly rapid rate of recent climate change poses new challenges to 

the resilience of arctic life. In addition to the impacts of climate change, many 

other stresses brought about by human activities are simultaneously affecting 

life in the Arctic, including air and water contamination, overfishing, increasing levels of ultraviolet radiation due to ozone depletion, habitat alteration 

and pollution due to resource extraction, and increasing pressure on land and 

resources related to the growing human population in the region. The sum of 

these factors threatens to overwhelm the adaptive capacity of some arctic 

populations and ecosystems.30

The key findings of the ACIA are based on a moderate scenario of 

warming. Nonetheless, these findings highlight the urgency of acting 

now to prevent or slow potentially irreversible impacts. Beyond the 

realization that changes are occurring rapidly in the region, a key 

finding is that “Arctic warming and its impacts have worldwide implications.”31 These implications are diverse, ranging from the multiplying 

effect of the albedo feedback loop to rising global sea levels and alteration of 

biodiversity and migratory habits. Perhaps an area often neglected by 

business-minded opportunists is the fact that thawing ground will 

disrupt existing infrastructure and prospective building projects like 

pipelines, airports, roads, industrial complexes, and so forth. The 

findings further discuss the cultural and economic disruptions in indigenous communities, an issue that underscores the need to integrate indigenous inputs into evolving Arctic policies. Overall, the 

ACIA states, “Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people 

and ecosystems,” and “the total impact is greater than the sum of its 

parts.”32

These impacts on natural systems and societies are not mutually 

exclusive; in fact, the opposite is true. When it comes to climate 

change, the Arctic is the epicenter. Those who understand this are 

raising the loudest alarms for action, but the general public is quickly 

gaining awareness. The GEO-4 report explains that the “polar regions 

influence major environmental processes, and have direct impacts on 
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global biodiversity and human well-being.”33 This is why headlines 

like “Arctic Sea Ice at Lowest Recorded Level Ever” and “Arctic Land 

Grabs Could Cause Eco-Disaster” have become so commonplace in 

scientific journals and mainstream media.34

One expert in this field is Dr. James Hansen, director of the NASA 

Goddard Institute for Space Studies and adjunct professor of earth 

and environmental sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute. 

In his opinion, “the greatest threat of climate change for human beings . . . 

lies in the potential destabilization of the massive ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica.”35 This would represent an irreversible consequence of climate change. The ACIA reported that melting of the 

Greenland ice sheet increased 16 percent from 1979 to 2002, when it 

broke all previous records.36 Hansen argues that we have reached the 

“critical tipping point” and that “we have at most ten years—not ten 

years to decide upon action, but ten years to alter fundamentally the 

trajectory of global greenhouse emissions.”37 This decision is of such 

magnitude that it will impact future generations, escalating the priority of adapting to climate change.

Recent IPCC reports demonstrate how the Arctic is a prime example 

of the challenges of adaptation: “Arctic human communities are already adapting to climate change, but both external and internal 

stressors challenge their adaptive capacities. Despite the resilience 

shown historically by Arctic indigenous communities, some traditional ways of life are being threatened and substantial investments 

are needed to adapt or re-locate physical structures and communities.”38 As Hansen predicts, “If human beings follow a business-as-usual 

course, continuing to exploit fossil fuel resources without reducing 

carbon emissions or capturing and sequestering them before they 

warm the atmosphere, the eventual effects on climate change and life 

may be comparable to those at the time of mass extinctions.”39 National 

security, therefore, is becoming subordinate to global security.

Economics

Economic policy decisions made in the near term will have lasting impacts on the sustainable development of the Arctic. Safe, secure, and responsible development in the Arctic demands cooperation, not competition.
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Resources

Scientists have long suspected that the Arctic Ocean holds significant quantities of hydrocarbon and mineral deposits including oil, 

natural gas, gold, platinum, lead, magnesium, nickel, and zinc. Until 

recently, however, low energy prices and prohibitive costs of extraction effectively limited exploration in the extreme Arctic environment. Recently, climate change and energy scarcity have combined in 

a kind of “perfect storm” to alter the age-old Arctic economic paradigm. Rapidly receding sea ice and higher energy prices are eroding 

the historical impediments to development. Exploiting these resources is becoming increasingly viable economically as the likelihood of positive financial returns and accessibility both improve.

The undiscovered hydrocarbon resources locked away beneath the 

ice are thought to be substantial. The 2008 Circum-Arctic Resource 

Appraisal (CARA) from the US Geological Survey (USGS) estimates 

that “90 billion barrels of oil, 1,669 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, 

and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids may remain to be found 

in the Arctic, of which approximately 84 percent is expected to occur 

in offshore areas.”40 Similarly, the USGS and the Norwegian company 

StatoilHydro estimate that the Arctic holds as much as 25 percent of 

the world’s remaining undiscovered oil and gas deposits.41 Estimates 

of the dollar value of these resources run into the trillions. These are 

the best attempts to estimate what lies beneath the Arctic Ocean seabed, about which less is known than the surface of Mars.42 The CARA

report acknowledges this limitation: “Because of the sparse seismic 

and drilling data in much of the Arctic, the usual tools and techniques 

used in USGS resource assessments, such as discovery process modeling, prospect delineation, and deposit simulation, were not generally 

applicable. Therefore, the CARA relied on a probabilistic methodology 

of geological analysis and analog modeling.”43 Regardless of the actual 

quantity of hydrocarbon resources beneath the Arctic, deciding 

where to drill would be just the beginning of a difficult process in a 

foreboding environment:

Drilling and extracting oil in deep, ice-covered waters, thousands of miles 

from any tanker port, poses enormous technical challenges. Special equipment and highly trained crews must be brought in and protected in a harsh 

environment. Thousands of engineering and technical hurdles must be overcome simply to bring the oil to the surface—to say nothing of building the 

thousands of miles of pipeline that must be laid to get the oil to market. What 
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is more, according to some geologists, once oil companies finally do tap into 

the Arctic, the formations are far more likely to hold gas than oil.44

A twisted kind of triple irony exists in regard to the Arctic’s suspected energy riches. First, as Arctic ice recedes, it increases access to 

more of the culprits that precipitated the melting in the first place—

fossil fuels. Secondly, for mankind to avoid a worst-case climate 

change scenario, a “bridge” fuel is needed to minimize carbon emissions in the near-term while transitioning to a long-term, sustainable, carbon-free energy economy—natural gas.45 Lastly, governments seeking national security may have merging interests with 

energy companies and environmentalists, as the negative effects of 

climate change become increasingly dramatic. Environmentalists, a 

group that could grow to include a vast majority of humanity, will 

demand their energy from cleaner sources, including natural gas. Energy 

companies will respond in kind by transitioning to these less carbonintensive forms of energy. Governments attempting to ensure national 

security will find it increasingly difficult and expensive to unilaterally 

provide this fundamental governmental function as global environmental security rapidly deteriorates.

To avoid this scenario, visionary governments must recognize that 

climate change has altered the existing national security paradigm. 

Long-term national security has become unattainable through unilateral action; multilateral effort to mitigate the effects of climate 

change will be essential. Wise governments will adopt policies that 

encourage transition away from carbon-intensive energy sources and 

build the international frameworks to achieve the required global response. In the Arctic, governments must build the apparatus now to 

maximize this collaboration while minimizing environmental damage.

Commerce

The retreat of Arctic sea ice could have dramatic near-term effects 

upon global commerce. The Arctic sea routes, sought in vain by nineteenth century explorers, are opening up. Specifically, maritime 

shortcuts known as the Northwest Passage (over North America) and 

the Northern Sea Route (over Eurasia) are fast becoming realities. 

The Northwest Passage first opened in 2007; in 2008 both passages 

were ice free simultaneously for the first time in recorded history.46

The implications of this are profound. As shipping shortcuts, they 

could reduce ocean distances by thousands of miles, saving days of 
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travel time and potentially a great deal of money. Use of the Northern 

Sea Route would reduce the distance between Japan (Yokohama) and 

Europe (Rotterdam) from 11,200 nautical miles (nm) to only 6,500 

nm.47 It would also avoid the time-consuming and politically tumultuous chokepoints of the Strait of Malacca and Suez Canal. The 

Northwest Passage would reduce a voyage from Seattle to Rotterdam 

from 9,000 nm to 7,000 nm, saving additional time and money by 

avoiding the Panama Canal’s delays and fees.48 Even greater benefits 

could be realized by megaships that are too large to use the Panama 

and Suez Canals and currently make the long treks around the Cape 

of Good Hope and Cape Horn. Some are merrily predicting a future 

that can only be described as a panacea of trans-Arctic transportation bliss:

Trans-Arctic shipping will become commercially viable and begin on a large 

scale. In an age of just-in-time delivery, and with increasing fuel costs eating 

into the profits of shipping companies, reducing long-haul sailing distances by 

as much as 40 percent could usher in a new phase of globalization. Arctic 

routes would force further competition between the Panama and Suez Canals, 

thereby reducing current canal tolls; shipping chokepoints such as the Strait of 

Malacca would no longer dictate global shipping patterns; and Arctic seaways 

would allow for greater international economic integration. When the ice recedes enough, likely within this decade, a marine highway directly over the 

North Pole will materialize. Such a route, which would most likely run 

between Iceland and Alaska’s Dutch Harbor, would connect shipping megaports in the North Atlantic with those in the North Pacific.49

Significant obstacles will have to be overcome, however, before this 

rosy future can be realized. First, Arctic ice retreat may not make 

transportation any easier in the near term. As thick multiyear ice 

breaks off from high polar regions, seemingly ice-free areas are likely 

to remain too dangerous for passage by non-ice-capable ships for 

years to come. Second, the myriad of critical support facilities and 

capabilities needed for safe oceanic transit are currently nonexistent 

in the Arctic Ocean. Current inadequacies include search and rescue, 

traffic management, vessel tracking, solid and liquid waste disposal, 

harbors of refuge for ships in danger, notices to mariners system, and 

training for captains and crews of these vessels.50 Additionally, highly 

skilled “ice pilots” will likely require special training and certification 

for particularly harrowing sections of the Northwest Passage. Furthermore, codes and methods of code enforcement for more rigorous 

ship design are needed to ensure that vessels transiting the Arctic 

have thicker hulls, more powerful engines, and special navigation 

equipment. Lastly, environmental disasters such as oil spills will have 
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dramatically more severe and long-lasting negative effects in the delicate Arctic environment. Likewise, aggressive spill response capabilities will be of critical importance. As stated in the Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy (AEPS):

The Arctic is one of the areas most vulnerable to adverse impacts from chronic 

and acute oil pollution. This is due to physical environmental conditions such 

as low temperature, periods with little or no light, ice cover, etc. Low temperatures lead to reduced evaporation of the more volatile, toxic oil components. 

Dark, cold winters in the Arctic lead to reduced ultraviolet radiation and biological decomposition of oil. In areas of drift ice, oil dispersal caused by wave 

action is also reduced. Oil in iced areas will be trapped between ice floes or 

under the ice, and only partly transported to the ice surface. These factors result in a generally slower decomposition of oil in the Arctic than in temperate 

regions. The period in which a particular oil spill can be harmful to wildlife is 

thus comparatively longer in the Arctic.51

The private sector has recognized the potential commercial boom 

that Arctic shipping could provide. Billions of dollars are being invested to develop fleets of Arctic tankers with cutting-edge, “doubleacting” ship designs that can sail bow first through open water and 

then turn around and proceed stern first to break through ice.52 The 

US Arctic Research Commission (USARC) anticipates that “as Arctic 

seaways become a reliable venue for global trade, the number of iceclass ships, currently around 7,800, will likely grow from 4.5 percent 

of the world’s shipping fleet to 10 percent. . . . Indeed, an accessible 

Arctic Ocean also means new or expanded routes for the US military 

sealift to move assets from one part of the world to another.”53

Tourism is also on the rise as cruise ships are venturing farther north 

every year. Greater coordination by Arctic nations will be needed in the 

future to ensure that tourism policies help minimize impacts on environmental degradation.54 Furthermore, governments must mobilize 

now to meet these future challenges in terms of safe shipping:

Research, policies, and coordinated investment in infrastructure 

will ensure safe, secure, and reliable Arctic shipping. Under the principle of freedom of navigation, global shipping can come to our doorstep whether we invite it or not. Whether you envision the Arctic 

Ocean as a new seaway, for trans-Arctic shipping, competitive with 

the Panama and Suez Canals, or only foresee an expansion of the current shipping in and out of the Arctic, the time to prepare is now.55

As stated by former assistant secretary of state Daniel S. Sullivan, 

“Having a safe, secure, and reliable Arctic shipping regime is vital to 
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the proper development of Arctic resources, especially now given the 

extent of Arctic ice retreat. . . . We can have such a regime only 

through cooperation, not competition among Arctic Nations.”56

Politics

Politics remains one of the greatest obstacles to a sustainable national 

strategy for the Arctic. Nonetheless, several conventions and frameworks 

exist to help regulate behavior and enforce agreements on Arctic concerns, including the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and various 

organizations, such as the Arctic Council and the International Maritime 

Organization. With the proper focus, much progress can be made 

through cooperative politics among Arctic nations.

Psyche of Arctic Nations

Of the eight Arctic nations, only the five bordering the Arctic 

Ocean make up the “coastal states.” These include Russia, Norway, 

Canada, Denmark, and the United States. Of these, the United States 

has shown the least interest toward the Arctic.57 The United States 

became an Arctic nation in 1867 after purchasing Alaska from Russia 

for $7.2 million, or less than two cents per acre.58 Just two years after 

the Civil War, many Americans failed to see wisdom in the transaction. Opponents of the deal viewed Alaska as a distant, useless piece 

of land, nicknaming it “Seward’s Folly” and “Seward’s Icebox” after 

then–secretary of state William Seward, who championed the deal.59

Many Americans view Alaska as a remote place that merits little attention, despite it becoming the 49th state in 1959. Most Americans, 

by and large, consider the United States a bicoastal nation, while in 

reality there are four coasts—East Coast, West Coast, Gulf Coast, and 

the 1,000-mile Arctic Coast.

An exception to this pervasive American disregard for Alaska has 

long been the US military. In 1935, Brig Gen Billy Mitchell recognized Alaska’s strategic potential, dubbing it “the most strategic place 

in the world.”60 World War II saw a massive military buildup in 

Alaska. By 1943, 152,000 out of 233,000 people living in Alaska were 

members of the US armed forces. Though the postwar population 

would drop to 99,000 in 1946, Cold War military expenditures 

quickly pushed it back up to 138,000 by 1950.61 Alaska gave the 

United States a clear strategic advantage over the Soviets throughout 
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the Cold War. Close to the USSR and distant from the continental 

United States, Alaska provided a priceless offensive and defensive 

buffer for ballistic missiles and ballistic missile warning systems. 

Alaska’s remoteness, previously viewed as a liability, made it a prized 

strategic possession. Today, the Air Force’s decision to station one of 

its newest aircraft in Alaska is no coincidence; C-17s were recently 

relocated to Elmendorf AFB in Anchorage. According to Lt Col Dave 

Alamand, commander of Elmendorf ’s 517th Airlift Squadron, C-17s 

“can reach any critical point in the world in less than 10 hours,” including Germany in only eight hours by flying over the North Pole.62

Surprising to some, this is roughly the same flight time to Germany 

as from bases on the US East Coast. In addition to this strategic lift 

capability, Alaska is one of just two locations outside the continental 

United States to host the Air Force’s top-of-the-line fighter, the F-22A 

Raptor.63 The military is not the only organization to recognize Alaska’s 

importance, however.

Since the early twentieth century, energy companies have been 

interested in Alaska for its oil and natural gas reserves. However, the 

costs of transportation kept production limited until two key events 

occurred. First, in 1967 North America’s largest known oil field was 

discovered in Prudhoe Bay on Alaska’s Arctic North Slope. Second, 

the Arab oil embargo in 1973 provided the cost incentive and political 

environment necessary to overcome hurdles of native land claims 

and environmentalist objections to approve building the trans-Alaskan 

oil pipeline. The pipeline, which enables oil from the North Slope to 

be pumped to the ice-free port of Valdez, was completed in 1977 at a 

cost of over $8 billion and has since transported over 15 billion barrels 

of oil.64

Clearly, Alaska remains vital to US national security both militarily 

and economically. Despite this, most Americans still view Alaska as 

an icy and distant land with not much to offer but energy and polar 

bears. This mentality has been hardened by the highly publicized 

political debates between energy companies and environmentalists 

over drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), a 

19-million-acre refuge on the Arctic Coast estimated by the USGS to 

hold between 5.7 and 16 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil.65

This amount would optimistically provide two years of America’s energy needs at the current annual usage rate of roughly 7.5 billion barrels 

of oil.66 ANWR’s potential resources, though not insignificant, are not 

a sustainable solution to America’s long-term energy dependency woes.
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Russia and Canada, the two coastal states with the largest amount 

of Arctic coastline, have deeply grounded national psyches as Arctic 

nations. Russians consider that a majority of the Arctic belongs to 

them. They believe the Lomonosov Ridge, an underwater Arctic 

mountain range thought to connect Siberia and Greenland, to be an 

extension of their continental shelf and thus have laid claim to 

460,000 square miles of the Arctic including the North Pole.67 In August 2007 celebrated Russian polar explorer Arthur Chilingarov declared, “The Arctic is ours and we should manifest our presence” after 

placing a titanium Russian flag on the North Pole seabed 13,200 feet 

beneath the frozen surface.68 The flag-planting mission was more 

than just a publicity stunt. It involved a nuclear-powered icebreaker 

and a research vessel with two mini submarines on a mapping expedition of the Arctic continental shelf in hopes of bolstering Russia’s 

2001 continental-shelf extension claim. The UN Commission on the 

Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS) denied that claim, pending 

further geologic evidence. In fact, more recent Canadian scientific 

mapping from March 2009 suggests that the North Pole may belong 

to Denmark.69

Canadians too have a deeply ingrained sense of Arctic ownership. 

Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper has declared, “Canada has 

a choice when it comes to defending our sovereignty over the Arctic, 

we either use it or lose it. And make no mistake; this government intends to use it.”70 The Harper administration’s new Canada First Defence Strategy makes repeated mention of the Arctic: “Canadian 

Forces must have the capacity to exercise control over and defend 

Canada’s sovereignty in the Arctic” and to “conduct daily domestic 

and continental operations, including in the Arctic and through 

NORAD [North American Aerospace Defense Command].”71 Canada 

has backed up this rhetoric with plans to open a new cold-weather 

military training center, acquire six to eight new Arctic/offshore patrol 

ships, and homeport them at a new deepwater Arctic port. Satellites, 

advanced radars, and remotely piloted vehicles are also being procured to “ensure the constant monitoring of Canada’s territory and 

air and maritime approaches, including in the Arctic, in order to detect threats to Canadian security as early as possible.”72 Compare this 

to the National Security Strategy, National Defense Strategy, and National 

Military Strategy of the United States, none of which mentions Alaska 

or NORAD. In fact, the single mention of the Arctic is found in the 

National Defense Strategy, but only when referencing Russia’s resurgence.73
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 113

Also part of the Canadian psyche is a strong spirit of cooperation 

with the United States in the mutual defense of North America. Canada 

First has a repeated theme of being “a strong and reliable partner in 

the defence of North America in cooperation with the United States, 

Canada’s closest ally. Given our common defence and security requirements, it is in Canada’s strategic interest to remain a reliable 

partner in the defence of the continent.”74 Canada and the United 

States share the longest nonmilitarized border in the world and more 

than half a trillion dollars of annual trade.75 The two nations have an 

extensive history of peacefully resolving differences and working bilaterally for mutual benefit. Examples are too many to list, but both 

nations must work together to resolve their ongoing disagreement 

over the Northwest Passage.

Canada views this fabled waterway through the Canadian Arctic 

“Archipelago” as internal waters, while the United States and a majority 

of the international community see it as an international strait, and 

thus the right of innocent passage should apply. This divide may result from Canada’s self-image as an Arctic nation and America’s selfimage as the universal defender of the high seas, ensuring freedom of 

navigation for all nations. This deeply rooted sentiment dates back as 

early as 1801 when the nascent US Navy defeated the Barbary pirates 

who were controlling access to the Mediterranean Sea.76 The United 

States and Canada should be aware of the passions on both sides of 

this issue as they work toward a peaceful solution.

According to the NDU report, one of the greatest challenges in the 

Arctic is that the United States “simply doesn’t understand we are an 

Arctic Nation. We’re a landowner in the Arctic with unique obligations, environmentally and strategically.”77 Today, the US Navy is as 

powerful as that of the next 17 largest navies combined, yet the United 

States has only one operable Arctic icebreaker.78 In contrast, Russia 

has 18 icebreakers, of which seven are nuclear powered and capable 

of breaking through ice twice as thick as the US diesel-powered icebreaker.79 US government officials have recognized that this deficiency of icebreaker capabilities has begun to limit US operations in 

the polar regions. This includes Alaska governor Sarah Palin, USARC 

chairman Meade Treadwell, and recent commanders of US Northern 

Command, US Transportation Command, and US Pacific Command.80 As a case in point, USNS Gianella recently required a rescue 

from a leased Swedish icebreaker, after having spent 50 hours in pack 

ice.81 On a positive note, this rescue could indicate the type of future 
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cooperation that could become the norm for Arctic nations operating in the challenging polar environment.

The Scandinavian countries (Norway, Denmark, and Sweden) 

have traditionally viewed the Arctic holistically, especially in terms of 

environmental and indigenous factors. The psyches of Denmark and 

Norway as coastal Arctic nations are particularly relevant. For Denmark, 

this is because of its extended claims through Greenland. Once again 

indicating that America has historically lacked a strategic interest in 

the region, the United States ceded portions of disputed Greenland 

territory to Denmark in 1917. This settled claims resulting from 

American expeditions by Robert Peary in the late 1800s. Instead, the 

United States purchased the Danish Virgin Islands, which it considered 

a more strategic acquisition. More recently, Danish crown prince 

Frederik Andre Henrik Christian has outwardly demonstrated interest 

and concern for the Arctic. For example, he participated in the Sirius 

2000 expedition, a 2,795-kilometer dog-sledge journey in northern 

Greenland from Qaanaq to Daneborg, showing his commitment to 

understanding the region and its indigenous peoples.82

Understanding indigenous cultures is a key piece to the psyche of 

Arctic nations. The region contains a multitude of different indigenous groups spanning territory held by each Arctic nation (appendix 

C). According to Dr. Natalia Loukacheva of the Munk Center for International Studies in Toronto, “The evolving security perspective in 

Greenland and Nunavut is formed by the Inuit tradition which demands cooperation and peaceful conflict resolution rather than military actions.”83 Danish foreign policy emphasizes the key areas of 

common security, democracy and human rights, economic and social 

development, and the environment.84 Environmental security, defined by the Danes as “the reasonable assurance of protection against 

threats to national well-being . . . associated with environmental 

damage,” stands as a unifying concept for Greenland and Denmark 

even in light of possible future independence of Greenland.85

Norwegian security policy in the Arctic can be understood historically by its bilateral disputes with Russia, particularly over national 

interests in Svalbard, and its commitment to the “extended security” 

concept. Former foreign minister of Norway, Bjørn Tore Godal, summarized this post–Cold War Norwegian concept as follows: “Our security rests on many more pillars than the military. This is what the 

concept of extended security is all about. . . . Our security today cannot be attended to by military means alone. A comprehensive and 
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composite number of security challenges demand a much broader set 

of political and institutional measures.”86 Late Norwegian foreign 

minister Johan Jørgen Holst also spoke of a grander “common security” concept: “The most pressing challenges in the Arctic are not 

confined to military issues, but include also environmental problems, 

management and utilization of natural resources, and jurisdictional 

issues. The end of the Cold War has eliminated many of the obstacles 

to a common security approach to the challenges of the Arctic.”87

Finally, the Norwegian Government’s High North Strategy spells out 

specific areas of emphasis in the Arctic today. These themes are the 

backbone of this strategy: leadership of international efforts for building knowledge and capacity; stewardship to the natural environment, 

resources, and wildlife; strengthening cooperation, on a people-topeople basis and internationally, with Russia in particular; safeguarding the livelihoods, traditions, and cultures of indigenous peoples; 

and overall value creation through the appropriate framework, education, utilization, and management. The strategy also clearly articulates where Norway will stand on Arctic issues:

The last large wilderness-like areas in our part of the world are to be found in 

the High North. The natural environment and cultural heritage of the region 

together make up a unique heritage that must be protected for future generations. This is why the environment and natural resources in the north must be 

protected against pollution and over-harvesting. It is also important to prevent developments from causing damage to the environment, and to prevent 

wear and tear and disturbance from increased traffic.88

International Frameworks

There is growing international interest in the framework of future 

Arctic governance. Arctic nations have increasingly articulated their 

respective economic stakes in the region’s untapped resources in order 

to delineate the boundaries of territorial claims before new discoveries 

are realized. At the same time, the international community has 

expressed the need to cooperate in responsible environmental management of the fragile resources in the Arctic. Despite calls for new international frameworks in the Arctic, existing frameworks are well 

established. The new paradigm of Arctic governance may simply be 

to implement these frameworks with environmental cooperation 

in mind.
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Harkening back to the days of colonial imperialism and the glory 

days of Sputnik, Russia’s symbolic flag planting sparked a wave of 

sensationalist literature ripe with Wild West imagery of a “lawless 

Arctic Gold Rush” with nations making an “armed mad dash” to 

“carve up” resources. Similar to Sputnik, the act may have served as 

a wake-up call for the United States. “In spite of the exaggerated 

coverage, many were pleased the Russian ‘media stunt’ had reminded the US it was an Arctic nation with an important stake in 

the region.”89

Contrary to these portrayals of chaos, the process of submitting 

territorial claims to the UN has thus far been deliberate and orderly. 

Norway submitted its claim in 2006; Canada and Denmark are gathering the data to submit their claims prior to their submission deadlines of 2013 and 2014 respectively. “In fact, the international community has maintained a relatively collegial atmosphere of negotiation 

in the region based on an effective framework of bilateral and multilateral agreements,” according to an NDU report.90 This is not to say 

that there are not any territorial disputes, however. In fact, six such 

disputes are known to exist, and three involve the United States.

US/Canadian disputes involve how to legally define the Northwest 

Passage and the demarcation of a 100-square-mile portion of the 

maritime border in the Beaufort Sea. The United States has also not 

resolved a disagreement with Russia over the status of an 

18,000-square-mile area of the Chukchi Sea.91 Canada has a dispute 

with Denmark over the status of Hans Island, located in the Nares 

Strait, between Canada’s Ellesmere Island and Greenland. Russia and 

Norway have yet to resolve their maritime boundary in the Barents 

Sea, and Norway and Denmark have a similar disagreement in the 

East Greenland Rift Basin.92

A perfect historical analogy for resolving sovereignty disputes in 

the Arctic does not exist. Nonetheless, despite the unique characteristics of the Arctic Ocean, UNCLOS provides an important piece of a 

suitable international framework to resolve territorial issues and regulate commerce: 

The convention provides mechanisms for states to settle boundary disputes 

and submit claims for additional resources beyond their exclusive economic 

zones. Furthermore, UNCLOS sets aside the resources in the high seas as the 

common heritage of humankind, it allows states bordering ice-covered waters 

to enforce more stringent environmental regulations, and it defines which 
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seaways are the sovereign possessions of states and which international passages are open to unfettered navigation.93

Written in large part by the United States with its own national 

interests in mind, this comprehensive international law has not been 

ratified by the US Senate due to concerns over yielding US sovereignty. 

A small group of senators has been able to stall the ratification process for about 15 years by keeping it tied up in committee and preventing a full vote on the Senate floor. When former US secretary of 

state Hillary Clinton was asked if ratifying UNCLOS would be a priority for the State Department, she responded emphatically, “Yes it 

will, because it’s way overdue.”94 Coalter G. Lathrop, president of 

Sovereign Geographics, counters predictions of chaos:

There exists a comprehensive legal regime that defines the rights and obligations of states in, over, and under the world’s oceans. It comes complete with 

customary rules, framework and subsidiary conventions, and dispute-settlement 

mechanisms and institutions. It applies to the Arctic Ocean. Whether such a 

regime stinks of world government or rings of international cooperation, it is 

far from a “legal vacuum.” . . . If the Arctic descends into anarchy, it will be 

despite the rules that are already in place.95

Presently, Arctic governance is formed by UNCLOS, along with 

the International Maritime Organization (IMO) and the Arctic 

Council. In this regime, the five coastal states have the primary responsibility for managing activities in the region, including both development and environmental protection. On 28 May 2008, representatives meeting in Ilulissat, Greenland, adopted the Ilulissat 

Declaration of the Five Arctic States (appendix D). The declaration 

reaffirmed the responsibilities and challenges faced by the coastal 

states under the established legal regime. It also recognized the right 

of other states to participate in development and protection under 

the provisions of international law and through the IMO, the Arctic 

Council, and other relevant international forums. Furthermore, it 

specifically stated that there is “no need to develop a new comprehensive international legal regime to govern the Arctic Ocean.”96 As such, 

it recognizes the effectiveness of, and pledges a commitment to, the 

frameworks already in place. Likewise, it rejects the notion of an alternative regime for the Arctic Ocean as contrary to the existing and 

effective frameworks.

Maritime governance can be dated back to the first international 

treaty adopted in 1914, following the Titanic disaster of 1912. This 

treaty, the International Convention for the Safety of Life at Seas, is still 
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the most important treaty for maritime safety today.97 The IMO was 

established in 1948, following the foundation of the UN. The IMO’s 

main task has been to “develop and maintain a comprehensive regulatory framework for shipping and its remit today includes safety, environmental concerns, legal matters, technical co-operation, maritime security and the efficiency of shipping.”98 The mission statement 

of the IMO emphasizes cooperation and preparedness for maritime 

accidents, including distress and safety communications, search and 

rescue, and oil pollution response.

Arctic governance also has deep roots in the AEPS of 1991, an 

initiative of Finland signed by all eight Arctic nations. The broad recognition of the strategy is that “only through careful stewardship by 

Arctic countries and Arctic peoples can environmental damage and 

degradation be prevented. These are the challenges which must be 

taken up in order to secure our common future.”99 The AEPS identified many areas of emphasis still direly needed in a sustainable strategy 

today, including scientific cooperation, assessment of environmental 

impacts, pollution control measures, and a commitment to international implementation.100 It also established programs to foster this 

future cooperation: Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme; 

Protection of the Marine Environment in the Arctic; Emergency Prevention, Preparedness, and Response in the Arctic; and Conservation 

of Arctic Flora and Fauna.

Building on this strategy, the Arctic Council has been a strongly 

influential intergovernmental forum since its establishment in 1996 

by the Ottawa Declaration. It serves as a “means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the Arctic States, with 

the involvement of the Arctic Indigenous communities and other 

Arctic inhabitants on common Arctic issues, in particular issues of 

sustainable development and environmental protection in the Arctic.”101

It includes all members of the eight Arctic nations and currently has 

six indigenous organizations as permanent participants. In addition, 

the council offers observer status to non-Arctic states, as well as other 

intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations that have a 

stake in its purpose. Denmark took over the two-year rotating Arctic 

Council chairmanship role from Norway in April 2009. This rotation 

does not indicate a change in major focus areas of the council over 

the long term. The Norwegian, Danish, and Swedish chairmanships, 

spanning from 2006 to 2012, have cohesively identified common objectives in the Arctic, including following up on the ACIA report for 
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climate change findings; improving the integration of resource management for sustainability and environmental protection; enhancing 

relations with the international Arctic science community, to include 

the massive International Polar Year project; improving the living 

conditions of local indigenous peoples; and continual assessment of 

its progress and international processes.102

One example of the effective use of established international processes is the close cooperation in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore. The agreement resulting from the Jakarta Initiative provides a 

recent model for a multilateral approach relevant to the Arctic sea 

routes. Over a two-day meeting in Jakarta ending on 8 September 

2005, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore launched a joint effort with 

the IMO, which respects the integrity of UNCLOS and directly promotes sustainable development and environmental protection. During 

opening remarks to the session, Efthimios Mitropoulos, secretarygeneral of the IMO, spoke of a global imperative of the safety and 

security in the straits, and affirmed that genuine progress could be 

made without delay using existing international frameworks:

Today and tomorrow we will take stock of existing agreements and endeavour 

to reach convergence on the perception of likely threats to the safety of navigation 

in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore and, subsequently, identify the actions 

necessary to contribute to the building of confidence among the various 

stakeholders to address the demands of safety, security and environmental 

protection throughout while, at the same time, respecting the sovereignty and 

territorial integrity of the three littoral States and the relevant provisions of 

international law, in particular the United Nations Convention on the Law of 

the Sea.103

A key piece of the initiative in Jakarta is the “Eye in the Sky” program that established combined maritime patrol to ensure continuous 

coverage over the 805-kilometer Straits of Malacca. At the meeting in 

Jakarta, Col Suryo Wiranto, assistant chief of operations for Western 

Fleet Command of the Indonesian navy, stated that “this multilateral 

initiative will help optimize air surveillance of the participating countries by providing intelligence and information aimed at enhancing 

the immediate action of the naval patrolling units along the Malacca 

Straits.”104 According to Mitropoulos, this combined force is critical 

to building capacity for monitoring the straits, as a shared responsibility, for threats like piracy, armed robbery, and terrorism. It also 

enhances training to prevent or suppress unlawful acts and enacts 
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cooperation in the areas of search and rescue and response to marine 

pollution incidents.

Overall, the Jakarta model stands as an international precedent for 

employing existing frameworks for better control of the seas and 

management of environmental risks. Again, Mitropoulos emphasized that “nowadays, safety, security, and environmental protection 

are, within the maritime domain and the work of the IMO, intertwined and inseparable.”105 As he further explains, the pathway to 

success is paved by a spirit that recognizes the need to work cooperatively: “For I am convinced that it is only through working together 

that we will be able to better address the multi-faceted and interconnected challenges and threats confronting our world nowadays and 

achieve progress in all areas of concern such as those that brought us 

here in Jakarta.”106 James Kraska, oceans policy adviser for international 

negotiations on the joint staff in Washington, DC, agrees that 

UNCLOS and the IMO are crucial pieces to a comprehensive package of international agreements necessary to regulate the Northwest 

Passage in the Canadian Arctic. He views the Malacca Straits model 

as ideal for the environmentally sensitive strait that is gradually becoming more accessible. In his words, “In the era of globalization, the 

multilateral successes in the Straits of Malacca and Singapore provide 

a framework for promoting Canada’s goals of preserving the fragile 

Arctic environment, maintaining maritime domain awareness in 

Arctic waters and exercising appropriate jurisdiction and oversight 

over the Northwest Passage.”107

Shifting Emphasis

Despite an apparently clear path to success in the Arctic, much 

progress is needed to ensure cohesive politics. Perhaps the most significant impact of climate change awareness stemming from the Arctic 

is a shift in viewing the world as an interconnected global community. 

Politically, in the words of Dr. John Ackerman, “the consequences of 

global warming could initiate replacement of the dominant international relations paradigm.”108 At the current crossroads of the international community, it seems that the tendency has been for a traditional response. Here is a case in point: Discover magazine released 

the top 100 scientific discoveries from 2008, listing the melting Arctic 

as its number five story. Ironically, the focus of the story is not that 

sea-ice coverage last year was one-third smaller than the 1979–2000 
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average, but that new sovereignty maps have been proposed.109 Specifically, the story highlights that the International Boundaries Research Unit at Durham University in England “produced an online 

map of the Arctic maritime jurisdictions and boundaries that in a 

mere three days had been downloaded more than 42,000 times” 

(appendix E ).110

The NDU report, while discussing the US strategic climate, lists 

American priorities in this order: security, economics, and environment.111 The common mind-set consistently places environmental 

concerns second or third in line, rather than in the same first-tier 

category of security interests, on par with sovereign territorial claims 

and balance of power politics. This was the prevalent American 

strategic position under the Bush administration. Simply recognizing that climate change exists does not mitigate its consequences. Until 

the strategic communication at the national level places environmental 

security in line with national security, each individual nation will 

continue contributing to, and suffering from, the impacts of climate 

change in the Arctic.

President Bush released National Security Presidential Directive 

(NSPD) 66, Arctic Region Policy, on 12 January 2009. This effectively 

“updated” the existing US policy on the Arctic dating back to Presidential Decision Directive 26 from 1994. The six principal objectives 

in the Arctic region remain unchanged with the new policy, with the 

exception of referring to “homeland security needs” instead of “postCold War national security.”112 The clear undertone in the new policy, 

however, is one of national sovereignty and control of potential resources and future Arctic exploitation. This appears to be a conscious 

shift away from the 1994 policy, which spoke of an “atmosphere of 

openness and cooperation with Russia” and “unprecedented opportunities for collaboration among all eight Arctic Nations on environmental protection, environmentally sustainable development, concerns of indigenous peoples and scientific research.”113

The push for international cooperation on the Arctic has been 

driven not just by those nations with sovereignty claims, but by others 

who see the issue from an environmental aspect. Their stakes are 

clear: the entire global community in the broadest sense consists of 

“Arctic nations” when coupling the fragility of the natural environment with the global impacts of climate change. In December 2008 

the UN held a conference on climate change in Poland, where there 

was an aura of great expectations for the 15th conference of the UN 
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Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to be held in 

Copenhagen in December 2009. On the website for Conference of 

the Parties, Michael von Bülow says it is a matter of urgency for the 

members to come to a clear direction and appropriate burden sharing 

to put plans into action from the conference. He writes, “From a historical point of view, the UN Climate Conference in Copenhagen is 

one of the most significant gatherings ever. The world has precious 

little time to reach an agreement which will secure the future habitability of the planet.”114 He places the event higher in magnitude than 

the peace accords after the world’s greatest wars as they were of only 

temporary impact. In contrast, “Copenhagen will be dealing with 

something fundamental to life on Earth: the stability of the biosphere.”115

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon highlighted the importance 

of cooperation during his opening statement in Poland, stating, “Today we need a global solidarity on climate change, the defining challenge of our era.”116 His speech came across as a call to arms by the 

UN to face the challenge of climate change. A fundamental aspect of 

his speech was that much success could be created by facing this challenge in conjunction with the failing global economy. In his words, 

“These crises present us with a great opportunity—an opportunity to 

address both challenges simultaneously. . . . An investment that fights 

climate change creates millions of green jobs and spurs green growth. 

We need a Green New Deal.”117 He praised the efforts of countries 

already embracing the spirit of the new green economy: green development conferences like those held in Qatar and Warsaw, investments in green energies like Denmark and even China, and active 

green economies like Brazil. “We must keep climate change at the top 

of our national agendas,” he stated.118 Furthermore, he said the world 

looks for leadership from the European Union (EU) and the United 

States, speaking with great optimism on the “incoming administration’s plan to put alternative energy, environmentalism and climate 

change at the very center of America’s definition of national security, 

economic recovery, and prosperity.”119

The response of the EU and the United States to calls for cooperation like those expressed by Ban Ki-moon has been one of reciprocity. 

The EU wants to do its part, and the United States has begun to set 

the stage for bold action and clear statements as the world leader on 

the issue. János Herman, principal advisor for regional cooperation 

of the European Commission, states that the EU is a “natural and 

legitimate player” in the Arctic based on its members with Arctic 
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claims, its proximity to the Arctic Circle, and its strategic relationship 

with the United States, Canada, and Russia.120 The commission’s core 

objectives in the Arctic are (1) the protection and preservation of its 

environment, (2) the sustainable husbandry of its resources, and (3) 

the development of its governance.121 The general outlook in these 

three objectives, from the EU point of view, is to mitigate the effects 

of climate change, exploit resources with caution, and build on existing governance provided by UNCLOS.122 Among the steps for improved governance is a push for EU observer status on the Arctic 

Council, with hopes to gain a seat at the table for discussion on Arctic 

development and to ensure that “exploration or exploitation activities 

would be carried out in accordance with the highest environmental 

standards.”123 The sustainable use of the region’s resources is of highest 

concern for the EU according to Oda Helen Sletnes, ambassador and 

head of the mission of Norway for the EU. She uses the analogy of the 

“canary in the coal mine” to describe the Arctic because it warns the 

rest of the world of the looming dangers of climate change.124

The United States has begun speaking with increased commitment 

to working as a world leader on the current global problems of climate 

change and the suffering economy. The Obama administration has 

echoed the spirit of Ban Ki-moon in official speeches, in the selection 

of its highly influential positions, and in its first policy actions. During 

his inaugural address, the president spoke of the need to navigate the 

icy waters ahead, referring to the tough times and hard choices ahead 

for the United States. He specifically talked about building a new green 

economy with climate change mitigation in mind.125

Likewise, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton highlighted America’s 

lead on this issue as a high priority when she addressed a crowd welcoming the appointment of Todd Stern as a new special envoy for 

climate change:

As should be evident by now, the President and I believe that American 

leadership is essential to meeting the challenges of the 21st century. And chief 

among those is the complex, urgent, and global threat of climate change. From 

rapidly rising temperatures to melting arctic icecaps, from lower crop yields to 

dying forests, from unforgiving hurricanes to unrelenting droughts, we have 

no shortage of evidence that our world is facing a climate crisis. And let’s be 

clear. A world in crisis goes well beyond the air we breathe, the food we eat, 

the water we drink. It is at once an environmental, economic, energy and 

national security issue with grave implications for America’s and the world’s 

future.126
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Indicative of the political commitment to this problem, Stern then 

addressed the same crowd and spoke of the opportunity of “transforming the global economy.”127 He stated, “We need partnerships 

and joint ventures among countries, collaborations between governments and the private sector, new technology and new financing. 

And we will need, above all, political will.”128

The president also sent a strong message by appointing Dr. Steven 

Chu, Nobel-Prize-winning physicist, as the US secretary of energy. 

Clearly, the administration plans to remain true to its promise to base 

response to climate change and efforts to build a green economy on 

sound science. At the same time, the political will to act was demonstrated by raising the federal corporate average-fuel-economy standards to encourage incentives for improving fuel efficiency in American vehicles. This legislation replaces standards that have been 

effectively frozen at 1986 levels. This is part of the administration’s 

strategy to “Deploy the Cheapest, Cleanest, Fastest Energy Source—

Energy Efficiency.”129

Ackerman’s suggestion that a political paradigm shift could be 

spurred by climate change may be unattainable in a timely manner 

without strong political will. This shift also requires a change to an 

ecologically based economy that is not only necessary for America’s 

security, but also for global security. Furthermore, this shift requires 

a broader awareness of human impacts on the world around us. Professor Simon Dalby of Carleton University suggests that we now exist 

in an “Anthropocene” geological period where human interactions 

with the environment produce ecological disruptions and vulnerabilities that outweigh nature’s ability to absorb them and heal itself.130

“Thus,” he states, “security planning needs to emphasize the importance of reducing the total throughput of materials and energy in the 

biosphere to limit disruptions while simultaneously building resilience and habits of international cooperation into human societies to 

better cope when disaster strikes.”131 He depicts the harsh reality that 

faces the human security of all nations based on scientific evidence 

suggesting the prospect of “peak oil,” the interconnectedness of the 

earth’s biosphere, and the corollary impacts on global economics and 

politics. In addition, he suggests a fresh look on mitigation efforts 

and the preservation ethos traditionally flagged as “environmentalism.” He suggests that “adapting to new ecological circumstances . . . 

is not about parks and protection; it is about changing the modes of 
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production and consumption to reduce total ecological throughput 

in the biosphere for sustainable human existence.”132

This suggests that a paradigm shift has monumental implications 

for policy makers charged with developing an appropriate national 

strategy in the Arctic. Dalby emphasizes that while “state-based politics 

and spaces are appropriate paradigms for the human side of environmental matters . . . political leaders must move from mitigation and 

regulation after the fact to thinking seriously about design and construction of artifacts, technologies, and societies that minimize ecological throughput.”133 He lays out a new framework for a global environmental security that must (1) decrease ecological disruptions, (2) 

refocus military capabilities on providing short-notice aid and assistance, and (3) “extend the habits and institutions of international cooperation so that aid and trade—rather than confrontation and conflict—

are the responses to ecological disruptions.”134 A better understanding 

of the biosphere system through natural science drives sound policy, as 

the two are inextricably linked.

Science

Collaboration harvests its benefits from differences in perspectives, knowledge and approaches, solving problems 

while at the same time offering benefits to all those involved 

in the process.

—Zinaida Fadeeva

United Nations University

The theory of climate change comes from the successful observations of numerous international programs of scientific study. The importance of science driving policy for climate change appears rather 

obvious. The need for continued research programs is clear, but what 

may be less easy to coalesce is the extent of scientific efforts and information sharing across national and international organizations. A 

strong national strategy for the Arctic should incorporate the collaborative spirit seen in the international scientific community. Furthermore, the national effort should merge military and civilian assets for 

synergistic response to climate change.
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International

The International Polar Year (IPY) is a prime example of this collaborative spirit to understand regional changes and global links. The 

fourth IPY, covering two full annual cycles, spanned from March 

2007 to March 2009 and involved over 200 projects with thousands of 

scientists from more than 60 nations using state-of-the-art technologies to explore physical, biological, and social research topics in both 

the Arctic and Antarctic.135 Among the urgencies of the IPY are the 

changing snow and ice, rising sea levels, permafrost degradation, and 

health challenges of northern people. These studies represent an 

enormous effort. According to the International Council for Science 

and the World Meteorological Organization, the IPY is “one of the 

most ambitious coordinated international science programmes ever 

attempted.”136 These studies are not blind natural science efforts because the IPY recognizes the relationship between the physical and 

social sciences. The opportunity to draw the proper conclusions from 

the studies is assisted by these mutual efforts. The IPY describes the 

spirit of discovery and the scope of science as follows:

Many scientific frontiers in the polar regions are at the intersection of disciplines, and progress will be achieved not only through the use of new observational techniques, but also by the interdisciplinary cross-analysis of existing 

databases, taking advantage of outstanding strides made recently in computing capability and communication on the Internet. New polar scientific advances will occur on a tremendous range of spatial scales, from the previously 

inaccessible realms of the genome to vast areas of the Earth’s crust beneath the 

ice and polar oceans.137

Interagency

Scientific collaboration at the national level is also not without 

precedent. US programs dedicated to the Arctic continue to make 

headway in understanding the Arctic problem. For example, USARC 

was established in 1984 by the Arctic Research and Policy Act. Its 

seven commissioners report to the president and Congress on goals 

and priorities for the US Arctic Research Program. The program is 

coordinated by the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee 

and chaired by the National Science Foundation (NSF) director.138 In 

conjunction with the IPY, USARC helped develop an Arctic observation network (AON), a system of atmospheric, land- and oceanbased monitoring capabilities designed to advance Arctic environmental observations. AON data, in addition to furthering the efforts 
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of the IPY, enables the US government interagency initiative to “get a 

handle on the wide-ranging series and rapid changes occurring in the 

Arctic.”139 This initiative is aptly called the Study of Environmental 

Arctic Change.

US interagency efforts have had varying degrees of success in information sharing, but interagency use of assets and methods is inevitable. One such effort was the cooperation of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) with Medea, a program initiated in 1991 by 

then–Senator Al Gore. Medea scientists worked to study trends in 

environmental science—such as global warming and the condition of 

polar ice caps—while benefiting from some of the data collected from 

CIA satellites, aircraft, ships and sonar arrays. The intent of this information-sharing program was to declassify certain information 

gathered for military intelligence purposes to use it for science. According to Dr. Jeffrey Richelson in Scientific American, “Never before 

has the intelligence community worked with a group of scientists 

outside the government with the kind of scale, trust and intimacy 

that will be required if the scientists are to make the fullest use of the 

government data and assets.”140

Information sharing helps tackle two main pillars of the scientific 

method: the ability to replicate findings and to verify their validity 

through experimentation and observation. Skeptics of sharing classified information are concerned about the sensitivity of national security capabilities and data sets and question the usefulness of information declassified too late in the game for scientists to benefit. The 

overall experience of the Medea program was mutually beneficial since 

Medea scientists helped intelligence community analysts to process 

and fuse data from multispectral inputs. For example, their methods 

were crucial to understanding the effects of a series of oil spills in the 

Komi region of Russia and of Russia’s chemical weapons disposal in the 

Arctic.141 Other critics who feared that environmental observations 

would overwhelm shared intelligence assets have been disproven by 

the Medea experience, where “environmental collection effort occupies 

less than 1 percent of the time of reconnaissance satellites.”142

Options Comparison

The NDU report, The Arctic Circle: Development and Risk, lays out 

three potential options for a national Arctic strategy without recom-
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mending a best course of action. While the report suggests a lower 

risk for each successive option, the implications of individual components are assessed here. Option 1 is “status quo”: retain current levels 

of an international framework. This is considered a high-risk option 

because of the expanding Arctic mission area, insufficient Arctic infrastructure, and unsatisfied diplomatic agreements.143 Option 2 is 

labeled as “limited enhancement” and is assessed as a medium-risk 

option with the following steps:

•  Ratify UNCLOS.

•  Articulate an Arctic Strategy which positively defines US interests

and priorities.

•  Arm theUSCGC Healy (sole US ice-breaker) for defensive purposes.

•  Create an Arctic combatant command able to manage and lobby

for DOD assets in the region.

•  Initiate a DOD working group to assessthe feasibility of improving

US Navy Arctic operations.

•  Act to resolve border disputes with the Russian Federation and

Canada on a bilateral basis.

•  Develop a plan to safeguard the Bering Strait (the future transArctic gateway for shipping).

•  Review plans for establishing a base on Little Diomede Island

[in the Bering Strait off the Alaskan coast] or improving Kivalina Lagoon [slightly further north in the Kotzebue Sound].144

(See appendix F for map.)

Finally, option 3 lays out a presumably low-risk option with the 

following priorities:

Short Term

•  Ratify UNCLOS.

•  Submit US claims for extended territorial boundary.

•  Conduct a comprehensive DOD reviewofArctic exigency plans.

•  Establish an interagency working group on Arctic scenarios.

Long Term

•  Improve, upgrade, and expand the American icebreaker fleet

(but begin process now).
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•  Review feasibility of a new Arctic combatant commander.

•  Act to resolve border disputes with Russia and Canada.

•  Begin fundraising campaign for US infrastructure improvements that will also serve Arctic clients (i.e., improved “ports of 

refuge,” navigation and communication satellites, search and 

rescue operations, cartographical measurements, etc.) 

•  Arctic armaments treaty that restricts weapons in the region.145

The following analysis illustratively compares these options and 

their components with the research criteria, namely that the optimal 

strategy must:

1. Peacefully resolve territorial sovereignty issues and promote 

free trade economics.

2. Mitigate risks to human and environmental security in the region 

and around the globe.

3. Provide a long-term solution to the sustainable development of 

the Arctic.

4. Include a mechanism for enforcement and monitoring compliance.

The matrix summarizes the viability of these options with respect 

to the criteria (table 5.1). A traffic-light analogy expresses the quality 

of each option. Note that only options 2 and 3 receive a “green light” 

assessment. Overall, none of the three options constitute an acceptable comprehensive strategy.

Table 5.1 Criterion Matrix

Criterion Option 1 Option 2 Option 3

1 Red Yellow Green

2 Yellow Yellow Yellow

3 Red Red Yellow

4 Yellow Green Yellow

Overall Red Yellow Yellow

The first criterion is to peacefully resolve sovereignty issues and 

promote free trade. While progressing from option 1 to option 3, the 

strategy becomes more viable. Current policy is insufficient due to the 

unacceptable ambiguity over US claims and existing disputes with Russia 

and Canada. With ratification of UNCLOS in option 2, however, the 
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United States would legitimize its claims under international law and 

would gain leverage in negotiation with other nations that have ratified 

the convention. Under option 3, there is more substantial support to 

meet the first criterion because it recommends submitting US claims for 

its extended boundary. Scientific evidence and ocean mapping efforts 

could provide empirical data required to substantiate these claims and 

make sovereignty resolution more objective.

None of the options successfully meet criterion 2 for environmental 

security because the NDU report acknowledges the climate change 

problem but falls short of suggesting strategy options that incorporate 

steps to mitigate it. Since no option discusses how to protect the Arctic’s 

fragile environment or consider the social and human welfare impacts of 

capitalizing on new resource and transit opportunities, a new option 

should address this core issue. Effectively, the status quo is just as good 

for this criterion since no new approaches are offered. A newly articulated strategy should emphasize environmental security as a high priority. 

The suggestion of a nonmilitarized Arctic, though respectable, is actually 

irrelevant and possibly even counterproductive to safeguarding the Arctic 

and controlling harmful interactions from an enforcement point of view.

Again, the options fall short with criterion 3, which is to provide longterm sustainability. Option 1 represents the worst option in some respects since it does not allow the United States to lawfully claim its offshore resources. Ratification of UNCLOS, on the other hand, only begins 

the process of exercising economic options from a traditional point of 

view. This step would need to be incorporated into an adaptive economy 

that benefits from activities like ecotourism and port services rather than 

oil drilling and mineral extraction. Long-term sustainability could be 

more at risk if these endeavors are not approached with measured caution. Option 3 suggests improvements to the icebreaker fleet and infrastructure projects, which could be positive steps toward sustainability.

Finally, the enforcing and monitoring criterion, a capstone to the 

other three criteria, is perhaps the greatest challenge of all due to the 

substantial size of the region and the potentially competing interests of 

state and nonstate actors. Military assets would probably play a significant role in this regard, giving teeth to international agreements and providing the best observation and response capabilities. Better monitoring 

could be achieved through satellite assets as proposed in option 3, but the 

suggestion to restrict weapons in the Arctic takes enforcement agencies 

out of the picture if those not in compliance with international law 

choose to arm themselves. Assets like the US Coast Guard cutter Healy
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 131

and proposed basing in the islands and lagoons of northern Alaska could 

provide the required leverage for proper enforcement. Because option 2 

suggests arming the Healy for defensive purposes, it receives the highest 

mark for this criterion.

Arctic Policy Comparison

Beyond the options proposed by the NDU report, the Arctic Region 

Policy, released 12 January 2009 by President Bush, has shortcomings 

when matched against the proposed criteria (table 5.2). In fact, this revision of the 1994 United States Policy on the Arctic and Antarctic Regions

seems to regress in the fundamental area of environmental security. It 

appears the new policy was a final effort of the Bush administration to 

boldly state that the United States is an Arctic nation with rightful claims 

to offshore resources and the Northwest Passage. However, the new policy 

strikes out the idea of “openness and cooperation with Russia” and “environmentally sustainable development.”146 On a positive note, the 2009 

policy endorses continued international scientific cooperation and states 

that “Arctic environmental research, monitoring, and vulnerability assessments are top priorities.”147 The policy recognizes that the “Arctic environment is unique and changing” and that additional stressors to its 

environment have “potentially serious consequences for Arctic communities and ecosystems.”148 It directs the Senate to promptly ratify UNCLOS,

which would help resolve territorial disputes and “give the United States 

a seat at the table when the rights that are vital to our interests are debated 

and interpreted.”149

Table 5.2. Criterion Shortcomings

Criterion 1994

policy

2009

policy

1 Red Green

2 Green Yellow

3 Green Red

4 Yellow Yellow

Overall Yellow Yellow

The downside of the 2009 policy lies in the sustainable development 

criterion as it ignores the new Arctic paradigm by intentionally placing higher emphasis on potential energy resources and traditional 
132 │ ARcTIC SECURITY

national security interests over global security. When referring to 

economic issues, it seeks to use cooperative mechanisms with other 

nations mainly because “most known oil and gas resources are located outside of United States jurisdiction.”150 Furthermore, it denies 

the possibility of an expanded role of the Arctic Council, suggesting 

that it “not be transformed into a formal international organization, 

particularly one with assessed contributions.”151 This misses a key 

step in achieving a three-prong Arctic strategy, as proposed by Scott 

Borgerson, international affairs fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. His first two steps are effectively accomplished with the new 

policy. He suggested that President Bush make a final attempt to pass 

UNCLOS through the Senate and to unilaterally update its Arctic 

policy.152 However, the updated policy makes no mention of ramping 

up US Coast Guard icebreaker capabilities.

Finally, the third prong of investing real diplomacy in the Arctic is 

unfulfilled. Borgerson’s suggestion to empower the Arctic Council by 

creating a security institution of Arctic nations has merit. The 2009 

Arctic Region Policy acknowledges long-standing boundary issues 

with Canada and Russia without offering diplomatic efforts for better 

cooperation.

Conclusion

Collaborative approaches require that countries and citizens 

choose their strategic decisions considering those of others, in 

such a way that the system’s solution reaches the optimum.

—Rodrigo Lozano

Cardiff University

Achieving an adaptive national strategy for the Arctic poses a fundamental challenge to the United States. Such a strategy demands 

awareness of the dire environmental signals from climate change observations in the Arctic region and around the planet. A business-asusual approach fails to ensure future US security because impacts 

observed in the Arctic are intrinsically linked with the rest of the 

global biosphere as one interconnected system. The conclusions of 

this research support the idea that there are holes in both the current 

US Arctic policy and recent proposals from the NDU conference on 
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 133

Arctic climate change. The recommendations below bridge the gap 

for a sustainable, responsible Arctic strategy.

Findings

The findings indicate the need for a new national security paradigm due to the global consequences of climate change if the United 

States continues on the traditional course of competition for resources and fossil fuel energy. The melting Arctic has brought increased interest in the region’s resources—especially oil and natural 

gas reserves—despite the complications of their extraction and the 

questionable long-term benefit of their use. Prospective commercial 

use of the Northwest Passage and Northern Sea Route to dramatically 

reduce shipping distances is also desirable from the traditional point 

of view. However, the negative impacts on Arctic people and ecosystems may outweigh the benefits of newfound shortcuts and port 

economies. Furthermore, the nature of climate change impacts on 

the global environment may make the movement of certain goods 

irrelevant as major shifts occur in local resources, agriculture, and 

human health.

On a positive note, the research also revealed that significant international frameworks are firmly established in both the political and 

scientific arenas. Scientific understanding of climate change through 

studies by organizations such as the Arctic Council and the UNFCCC 

provides awareness to facilitate the current discussion for political 

change. Most nations have officially accepted the idea of global warming and are working under the agreement of the Kyoto Protocol to 

decrease greenhouse gas emissions. Collaboration has been most significant in the international scientific community, to include major 

projects like the recent IPY for improving Arctic observations. For 

resolving territorial disputes and standardizing maritime law, UNCLOS 

provides a proven universal framework that is relevant in the Arctic.

The options analysis compared three possible strategic approaches 

proposed by the NDU report against four criteria. Of these, only criteria 

1 and 4 are met, meriting a “green light” assessment. Criterion 1, 

peaceful resolution of sovereignty disputes and promotion of free 

trade, is satisfied through the recommendation to ratify UNCLOS 

and submit territorial claims to the CLCS. The fact that all other Arctic 

nations have already taken this step enhances the potential for resolving US disputes in the Arctic. Criterion 4, providing a monitoring 
134 │ ARcTIC SECURITY

and enforcement mechanism, is satisfied through the recommendation to provide capable military assets and basing options in the Arctic, 

including more US icebreakers.

A look at the 2009 US Arctic region policies shows that criteria 2 

and 3 were actually best addressed under the 1994 version. This is 

mainly because the environmental concerns and spirit of cooperation, especially in the case of Russia, were paramount in that policy. 

The biggest concerns of the newer policy are the clear message of 

heightened national security in the region and the desire to claim and 

exploit hydrocarbon energy reserves.

Recommendations

The most appropriate national strategy for the Arctic is to pursue a 

combination of the status quo with enhanced capabilities and frameworks. The context of the new presidential administration provides a 

tremendous opportunity to make the right choices for climate change, 

at a time when the world sees itself at a critical decision point for 

sustainability. This national Arctic strategy could be summarized by 

three overriding themes for the United States: (1) homeland security, 

(2) being a good neighbor, and (3) world leadership.153 Together, 

these themes produce a layered effect that is palatable for national 

security advocates, while leveraging the globalization and environmental security concepts that have become virtually indivisible from 

national security in the modern world.

Unilaterally, the United States should foster a true homeland security 

mind-set that incorporates environmental security concerns with 

national security assets. The United States should continue with collaborative scientific programs through the NSF and USARC while 

promoting interagency information and asset sharing through Medea. 

The United States should ratify UNCLOS, continue the process of 

Arctic geological surveying and ocean-floor mapping, and promptly 

submit the scientific evidence of its territorial claims to the CLCS. 

Through responsible time-sharing of intelligence satellites, more specific collection requirements should be addressed for key Arctic climate change indicators and environmental disaster monitoring. The 

US Coast Guard should immediately acquire a polar-capable icebreaker 

fleet, expanded to include armed, Arctic-capable ships that can provide 

enforcement and port protection services.
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 135

Bilaterally, the United States should continue its strong relationship with Canada and work more openly with Russia to find common 

ground on Arctic sovereignty disputes in the spirit of cooperation 

and environmental protection. The United States should work with 

Canada to strengthen a common continental defense and combine 

Coast Guard training exercises with a focus on controlling transit of 

the Northwest Passage, responding to oil spills, and conducting 

search and rescue operations in the Arctic environment. The United 

States and Canada should also expand NORAD mission sets to include routine Arctic monitoring from the sea, air, and space. An 

equivalent arrangement should be established with Russia emphasizing improved cooperation in Arctic scientific research. A more levelheaded diplomacy with Russia should emphasize shared responsibilities to track toxic pollutants in the ocean, reduce greenhouse gas 

emissions, and respond to environmental disasters.

The United States should set the example of a climate change conscience by reshaping its energy infrastructure into a greener, more 

responsible one. It should continue international efforts that study 

and respond to climate change and encourage multilateral talks that 

address environmental security. The United States should influence 

the Arctic Council to accept members of the EU in observatory status 

to voice environmental concerns and provide useful data and research methodologies. It should reverse its current Arctic Region Policy

in two main areas: propose expanding the role of the Arctic Council 

to an enforcing organization, and express the importance of increased 

cautiousness with Arctic drilling.

An expanded Arctic Council is the proper venue for improved Arctic 

governance. The Arctic Council was founded on sound principles from 

the AEPS that are relevant to a sustainable Arctic strategy. A strong 

cooperative working relationship for issues in the region is wellestablished through the council, and the ability to reach consensus on 

future governance in the Arctic is most promising with this framework. 

Models like the Jakarta Initiative and the Ilulissat Declaration confirm 

that continued governance in accordance with the IMO and UNCLOS 

is sufficient to regulate sovereignty and basic behavior in the Arctic. 

The Arctic Council should provide the specific oversight for responsibilities in protecting the Arctic environment and ensure safe and secure transit of vessels through the northern sea lines.

The concept of creating a new political alliance or adopting a new 

military geographic combatant commander (GCC) specific for the re-
136 │ ARcTIC SECURITY

gion, as suggested in the NDU report, seems unnecessary and possibly 

counterproductive. It is true that the United States will need to determine jurisdiction for the GCC overlap in the Arctic, with the US European, Pacific, and Northern Commands currently sharing responsibilities in the Arctic. Nonetheless, the United States should pursue 

more military cooperation with other Arctic nations to ensure common security in the region. A standing multinational force comprised 

of equitably shared resources should be established and mutually 

trained to ensure compliance of Arctic agreements and protect the region. A combined force, acting as an arm of the Arctic Council, would 

promote sharing military assets and information to better monitor, assess, and respond to human and environmental emergencies. It would 

also ensure gap coverage by time-sharing with mutually responsible 

nations, such as the successful efforts in the Straits of Malacca.

The United States should be the first to suggest a temporary moratorium on drilling in the Arctic. This would set the tone for the international community and give clear guidelines on scientific support 

for suspected impacts over the long term. This moratorium period 

should heavily focus on international collaborative research to include inputs from indigenous peoples on economic, social, and environmental impacts of energy exploitation in the Arctic.

Finally, the Obama administration should rewrite the current NSS. 

The 2006 NSS is founded on two pillars: (1) promoting freedom, justice, and human dignity; and (2) confronting the challenges of our 

time by leading a growing community of democracies.154 A new pillar 

should reflect the urgency of responding to climate change, increasing general awareness of the impacts in the Arctic. It should incorporate the same spirit of leadership, collaboration, and stewardship expressed throughout this study. This third pillar of the NSS would 

express values of leading the world in a spirit of collaboration for a 

common environmental security and stewardship of a sustainable 

planet. We will lead by actively pursuing cleaner energy sources and 

protecting fragile ecosystems like those in the Arctic. America will 

work with other nations to improve the scientific understanding of 

our interconnected biosphere and ensure safe, secure, and responsible transit on our oceans.

Notes

1. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 3.

2. Bush, National Security Strategy, 3.
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 137

3. Ibid., 47.

4. Ibid., 3.

5. Ibid.

6. Nye, Paradox of American Power, 8–12.

7. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 3.

8. Ibid., 11.

9. Ibid., 11–12.

10. Hansen, “Threat to the Planet,” section 1.

11. Marian Wilkinson, “Voyage into the Arctic as Summer Ice Vanishes,” Sydney 

Morning Herald, 4 August 2008, http://www.smh.com.au/news/environment/ a-voyageinto-the-great-arctic-meltdown/2008/08/03/1217701855502.html.

12. Tomczak and Godfrey, Regional Oceanography, 83.

13. Collins et al., “Physical Science behind Climate Change,” 69.

14. Ibid., 66.

15. NOAA, Arctic Report Card 2008, 7.

16. Ibid.

17. Wilkinson, “Voyage into the Arctic,” 2.

18. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group I, Technical 

Summary, 37.

19. NSIDC, “Education Center.”

20. Wilkinson, “Voyage into the Arctic,” 2.

21. Schwartz and Randall, Abrupt Climate Change Scenario, 9.

22. Ibid., 12.

23. Ibid., 6.

24. Ibid.

25. Wilkinson, “Voyage into the Arctic,” 2.

26. Farrar, Global Warming, 7.

27. NCAR, “Arctic Ice Retreating.”

28. Ibid.

29. UNEP, Global Environment Outlook, 279.

30. ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, 5.

31. Ibid., 10.

32. Ibid., 11.

33. UNEP, Global Environment Outlook, 199.

34. “Arctic Sea Ice at Lowest Recorded Level Ever,” ScienceDaily, 16 September 

2008, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/09/080915162428.htm; and Westly, 

“Arctic Land Grabs.”

35. Hansen, “Threat to the Planet,” section 2.

36. ACIA, Impacts of a Warming Arctic, 3.

37. Hansen, “Threat to the Planet,” section 4.

38. IPCC Assessment Report 4, Climate Change 2007, 15.

39. Ibid.

40. USGS, Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal, 1.

41. Borgerson, “Arctic Meltdown,” 67.

42. Ibid., 67.

43. USGS, Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal, 1.

44. Roberts, End of Oil, 64.
138 │ ARcTIC SECURITY

45. Ibid., 313–14.

46. International Ice Charting Working Group, “National Ice Services Advise.”

47. Borgerson, “Arctic Meltdown,” 69.

48. Ibid.

49. Ibid., 70.

50. Ibid., 76.

51. Arctic Environment Protection Strategy (AEPS), 14.

52. Ibid., 71.

53. USARC, “Congress Hears Needs.”

54. Dhanapala, “Arctic Security Problems,” 12.

55. Ibid.

56. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 7.

57. Ibid., 3.

58. Gislason, “Brief History of Alaska.”

59. Ibid.

60. Schanz, “Strategic Alaska,” 49.

61. Gislason, “Brief History of Alaska.”

62. Schanz, “Strategic Alaska,” 49.

63. Ibid.

64. RDC, “Alaska’s Oil and Gas Industry.”

65. USGS, Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, 4.

66. Roberts, End of Oil, 155.

67. Scott G. Borgerson, “An Ice Cold War,” New York Times, 8 August 2008, 

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/08/08/opinion/08borgerson.html?_

r=2&oref=slogin.

68. Ibid.

69. “North Pole May Belong to Denmark.”

70. Ibid.

71. Department of National Defence (DND), Canada First, 3, 8.

72. Ibid., 7.

73. DOD, National Defense Strategy, 4.

74. DND, Canada First, 8.

75. Scott G. Borgerson, “No Time for Chest Thumping,” International Herald 

Tribune, 9 September 2007, http://www.cfr.org/publication/14169/no_time_for_

chest_thumping.html. 

76. US Department of State, “Barbary Wars.”

77. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 6.

78. Borgerson, “No Time for Chest Thumping.”

79. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 9.

80. Renuart, Memorandum.

81. Ibid.

82. “Crown Prince’s Background.”

83. Loukacheva, “Security Challenges and Legal Capacity,” 3.

84. Østreng, National Security and International Cooperation, 233.

85. Ibid.

86. Ibid., 136.

87. Ibid.
ARcTIC SECURITY │ 139

88. Norwegian Government’s High North Strategy, 45.

89. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 6.

90. Ibid.

91. Russell, “Carpe DIEM,” 97.

92. Borgerson, “Arctic Meltdown,” 74.

93. Ibid., 72.

94. US Senate, Secretary of State Confirmation.

95. Lathrop, Letter to the Editor.

96. Ilulissat Declaration, 1.

97. International Maritime Organization (IMO), “Introduction to IMO.”

98. Ibid.

99. AEPS, 7.

100. Ibid., 2.

101. Arctic Council, “About Arctic Council.”

102. Arctic Council, “Norwegian, Danish, Swedish Common Objectives.”

103. Mitropoulos, Opening Remarks for Jakarta.

104. Yusoff, “Eye-in-the-Sky.”

105. Mitropoulos, Opening Remarks.

106. Ibid.

107. Kraska, “Law of the Sea Convention,” 281.

108. Ackerman, Global Climate Change, xvi.

109. Gosnell, “Top 100 Stories of 2008,” 26.

110. Ibid.

111. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 7.

112. Bush, Arctic Region Policy, 2; and Clinton, Presidential Decision Directive/

NSC-26, 2.

113. Clinton, Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-26, 2.

114. Bülow, “Countdown to Copenhagen.”

115. Ibid.

116. Ki-Moon, Opening Statement, 4.

117. Ibid., 1–2.

118. Ibid., 3.

119. Ibid., 2.

120. “EU and the Arctic.”

121. Ibid.

122. Ibid.

123. “Environment Pushes EU.”

124. “EU and the Arctic.”

125. Obama, Inaugural Address.

126. US Department of State, Announcement of Appointment.

127. Ibid.

128. Ibid.

129. White House, “The Agenda.”

130. Dalby, “Ecology, Security, and Change,” 155.

131. Ibid.

132. Ibid., 159.

133. Ibid., 161.
140 │ ARcTIC SECURITY

134. Ibid., 162.

135. “About IPY.”

136. Scope of Science for IPY 2007–2008, 1.

137. Ibid, 11–12.

138. Treadwell, Is America Prepared?, 1.

139. National Science Foundation, “Fact Sheet: The Arctic Observation Network (AON).”

140. Richelson, “Scientists in Black.”

141. Ibid.

142. Ibid.

143. NDU, “Arctic Circle,” 11.

144. Ibid., 11–12.

145. Ibid., 12.

146. Clinton, Presidential Decision Directive/NSC-26, 2.

147. Bush, Arctic Region Policy, 9.

148. Ibid., 8.

149. Ibid., 4.

150. Ibid., 8.

151. Ibid., 4.

152. Borgerson, “Russia’s Other Front.”

153. Maj Kevin B. Ferdinand, Canadian Forces, ACSC instructor, interview by 

the author, 28 January 2009.

154. Bush, NSS, ii.
Chapter 6

Catastrophe on the Horizon: Future

Effects of Orbital Space Debris

Lt Col Jack Donahue

Orbital Space Debris Defined

Orbital space debris can be defined as dead satellites, discarded 

rocket parts, or simply flecks of paint or other small objects orbiting 

the earth. It is simply space “junk,” but junk that can be extremely 

dangerous to space assets. Most of the debris concerns are associated 

with satellites and manned space missions in low Earth orbit (LEO). 

LEO extends out to about 5,000 kilometers (km) from the earth’s 

equator.1

 There are two other bands of orbits that contain satellites. 

The first, geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO), is the outermost band 

and extends out to approximately 35,888 km. The second is the medium 

Earth orbit (MEO), which is located between LEO and GEO in the 

approximate range of 10,000 to 20,000 km. Typically, satellites in 

GEO and MEO are shielded (hardened) from the harmful effects of 

space, such as radiation, and are more resilient.2

 However, there are 

roughly 300,000 small objects that are too small to be tracked (4 millimeters [mm] in size) but large enough to do potential harm to any 

object they could strike, given the enormous speeds of collision implied by orbiting objects.3

 Nevertheless, the current debris population 

in the LEO region has reached the point where the environment is 

unstable and collisions are becoming the most dominant debrisgenerating mechanism.4

Of the nearly 100,000 pieces of debris larger than a marble in orbit, 

those at altitudes above 1,000 km will remain in orbit for centuries, 

and those above 1,500 km will remain for millennia.5

 Currently, there 

are approximately 900 active satellites in Earth orbit and roughly 

10,000 pieces of space debris longer than five inches traveling at approximately 11,000 miles per hour. Even a small piece of debris that 

is less than one-half inch is capable of doing serious damage, like depressurizing a spacecraft (exposing the crew to decompression sickness 

from lowering of environmental pressure).6

 A space launch can potentially create more space debris from pieces of the rocket or from 
142 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

the satellite being put into orbit. If any of these pieces come into contact with an active space asset, it could not only be catastrophic for 

the asset but also result in adversely affecting television, cell phones, 

Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, national security, intelligence (reconnaissance and imaging), and weather forecasting.

Research Questions and Thesis

The main question of this research is, Should the United States 

have an increased concern about orbital space debris? The supporting 

question is, If so, what futures could result from the driving forces 

and effects of this debris?

Space debris continues to accumulate every year, and this trend 

should be alarming. Therefore, this research paper’s thesis is that if 

the United States does not resolve the orbital space debris problem, it 

will lead to a catastrophic collision between debris and satellites or 

manned spaceflight missions that will in turn adversely impact global 

communications, the economy, safety (danger to space crew), or US 

national security.

Research Purpose

This research brings some much-needed attention to the growing 

problem of space debris and highlights the driving forces behind the 

orbital space debris problem. An examination into the effects debris 

may have in the future sheds some light on the situation and puts into 

perspective how serious this issue has become and what impact it 

could have on our society and the world. This research is intended to 

identify some potential futures as a result of orbital debris and highlight potential solutions for consideration. Hopefully, this will spark 

some debate, and policy or legislative changes can be considered to 

avoid a potential space catastrophe in the near future.

Background Information

Today, spacecraft follow a carefully synchronized orbit using signals 

from ground controllers, who track known objects, to avoid the 

debris.7

 Countless man-hours and millions of dollars are spent cata-
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 143

loging space debris to prevent disastrous collisions with US space assets. Space operators do this by getting a rough fix on the trajectory of 

debris and craft from the US Air Force (US Space Surveillance Network [SSN], managed by US Strategic Command), which provides 

radar data on spacecraft trajectories.8

 As the amount of orbital debris 

continues to rise, operators find it increasingly difficult to monitor all 

the objects.

Previous Space Debris Incidents

Monitoring objects in space is only part of the answer. The sheer 

volume of space debris will soon make it difficult to maneuver spacecraft without risking an accident.9

 In fact, there have already been 

numerous logged incidents with orbital debris. For example, in 1983, 

a paint speck only 0.2 mm in diameter made a 4 mm dent in the 

Challenger space shuttle’s windshield.10 In September 1991 a space 

shuttle mission was interrupted to allow the shuttle Discovery to 

avoid debris from a decaying Soviet-era satellite.11 In July 1996 the 

first recorded orbital collision occurred between a discarded rocket 

stage and a French spy satellite, damaging the satellite’s stabilization 

system and sending it tumbling, although it was able to recover.12 On 

12 March 2009 debris came alarmingly close to the International 

Space Station, forcing crew members to take refuge inside a Russianbuilt Soyuz lifeboat.13

Studies have shown that operational spacecraft infrequently collide with other objects. These collisions increase over time as the 

small fragment population increases; this could prove to be mission 

ending for the spacecraft.14 Without the United States taking steps to 

remove orbital debris, collisions resulting in the destruction of spacecraft could create clouds of new debris objects, compounding the 

problem and raising the probability of new collisions.15

Reducing and Clearing Orbital Debris

Scientists and space agencies around the world are working to come 

up with ideas for clearing orbital debris. One idea is to use robotic trash 

collectors that push large pieces of junk through the atmosphere where 

they mostly burn up in Earth’s atmosphere before hitting the ground.16

However, fuel expenses for these trash collectors might be too costly.17

Other ideas include attaching electrodynamic tethers to new satellites 
144 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

or fitting satellites with aerobrakes so that at the end of their mission, 

they can enter Earth’s atmosphere and burn up harmlessly.18

Others are considering various ways of reducing orbital debris 

proliferation, in particular, preventing the production of orbital debris in LEO. These ideas include various international space policies, 

treaties, and agreements between the United States and other countries that would ban tests in space that produce debris. In addition, 

satellites could be hardened before being launched into space, making 

them less vulnerable to the harsh environments of space. This would 

significantly increase their chance of survival from a debris collision.

Methodology

Scenarios enable new ideas about the future to take root 

and spread across an organization—helping to overcome 

the inertia and denial that can so easily make the future a 

dangerous place.

—Eamon Kelly

CEO of GBN

Description of Scearce and Fulton’s Scenario-Thinking Model 

with Five Phases

Scenarios show how the future might unfold for our organizations, 

our issues, our nations, and even our world.19 Scenarios are not predictions; they are stories about diverse ways in which relevant issues 

might evolve, such as future political environments, social attitudes, 

regulations, and the strength of the economies.20 They are designed to 

stretch our thinking about the opportunities and threats that the future 

may hold, as we weigh them carefully when making short- and longterm strategic decisions.21 Done well, scenarios are mediums where 

great change can be envisioned and actualized.22 Scenario thinking is 

a process through which scenarios are developed and used to inform 

strategy.23 After that process is complete, scenario thinking becomes 

a posture toward the world—a way of thinking about and managing 

change and exploring the future so the world might be better prepared.24

A scenario-based methodology will be used to examine this thesis, 

guided by the scenario-thinking approach described in What If? The 

Art of Scenario Thinking for Non-Profits by Diana Scearce and Katherine 
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 145

Fulton of the Global Business Network (GBN). Scearce and Fulton’s 

scenario-thinking model consists of five phases: orient, explore, synthesize, act, and monitor.

Phase One: Orient. The orient phase clarifies the focal issue at 

stake and uses that issue as an orienting device throughout the remaining four phases. The process begins by learning more about the 

challenges that a particular organization, community, or nation faces 

and understanding the underlying assumptions about the nature of 

those challenges and how they will play in the future.25 Typically, the 

most effective way to understand these assumptions is to ask key 

stakeholders questions through structured interviews. However, the 

assumptions for this research paper will be generated from a variety 

of books, journals, scholarly periodicals, websites, and magazines.

The focal issue for this research is a catastrophic collision from 

orbital space debris. This phase also includes establishing a time 

frame for the possible futures. Most scenarios that are developed to 

inform strategy look five to 10 years into the future.26 The time frame 

should always reflect how rapidly the issue in question is likely to 

change.27 Currently, the volume of space debris will soon make it difficult to maneuver spacecraft without risking an accident; therefore, 

it will not be necessary to look too far into the future. Thus, the year 

2015 was selected for the possible futures.

Phase Two: Explore. The explore phase consists of examining the 

issue in greater depth and identifying the “driving forces” that could 

shape the focal issue (catastrophic collision from orbital space debris). Driving forces are the changes outside normal control that will 

shape future dynamics in both predictable and unpredictable ways.28

Driving forces include factors and shifts in the environment such as 

social, technological, economical, environmental, and political 

changes. These forces can be either predetermined elements or 

uncertainties.29 Predetermined elements are forces of change that are 

relatively certain over a given future time frame, and uncertainties 

are unpredicted driving forces.30

Phase Three: Synthesize. In the synthesize phase researchers synthesize and combine the driving forces to create scenarios.31 Likely, 

individuals have identified several driving forces, but some are not as 

important as others. Therefore, phase three is a narrowing phase in 

which one will cull and refine the driving forces to just a handful.32

The synthesize phase contains three elements: (1) Select the critical 

uncertainties from the driving forces that were classified by importance 
146 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

and degree of uncertainty. (2) Construct the scenario framework using each critical uncertainty as an axis for a two-dimensional matrix, 

with the range of uncertainty representing the polar extremes of each 

axis (fig. 6.1). Each quadrant of the matrix will represent a possible 

scenario or a potential future. (3) Create a short, distinctive, yet descriptive name for each notional future (based on the synthesis of the 

two poles that comprise that quadrant), and write a brief supporting 

narrative.

Abundance

Scarcity

Individualism

Heterogeneity

Community

Homogeneity

Tech-Connected Pluralism Americana

A world in which

prosperity is driven by

technological advances.

Survival of the Fittest

A world of competition for

scarce resources,

entrepreneurship, and

self-reliance.

A world in which

nationalism and patriotism

are the dominant values.

Community Bonds

A world of US isolationism

and a strong anti-American

sentiment globally.

Cultural values and impact of demographics shifts Resources

Figure 6.1. Scenario framework example. (Adapted from Diane 

Scearce and Katherine Fulton, What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking 

for Non-Profits [Emeryville, CA: GBN, 2004]: 37).

Phase Four: Act. In phase four researchers use scenarios to inform and inspire action.33 The act phase consists of developing scenario implications and a strategic agenda. Imagine living in each scenario, learning how to prepare if the scenario is the future, and asking 

what actions are needed to avoid or mitigate a negative scenario. The 

answers to this question are the scenario implications.34 The patterns 

and insights that emerge from the scenario implications are the building blocks of the strategic agenda—the set of strategic priorities that 

help make progress on the long-term goals.35 The predetermined elements identified during the scenario development process can be used 

to decide if any of them figure prominently in the strategic agenda.36

Phase Five: Monitor. The last phase identifies specific warning 

signals or other leading indicators that could forecast the emerging 
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 147

reality of a particular future and monitors them. Leading indicators 

are signs of potential or significant change and can be obvious or 

subtle.37 Leading indicators can serve as powerful signals to adapt 

strategy to the changing environment.38 Once identified, strategies 

can be put in place to respond to the emerging reality.39

Method Justification

In order to gain more insight into ideas of how to handle the debris 

problem, along with the driving forces and effects of debris over the 

next five years, I describe four future scenarios based on consequences of orbital space debris in the year 2015. These scenarios are 

not predictions of the future; they simply analyze the challenges and 

potential solutions to the orbital debris dilemma that the United 

States must consider to protect our vital space assets.

Application of Scenario Five-Phase Model 

Orient Phase

The orient phase clarifies the focal issue at stake and uses that issue 

as an orienting device throughout the remaining four phases. The focal 

issue of this paper is a catastrophic collision from orbital space debris 

in the year 2015. To better understand the situation, the issue must be 

characterized based on the challenges, facts, and assumptions associated with orbital space debris—the launching of satellites and the 

subsequent abandonment at end of life have been major contributors 

to the growth of orbital debris in LEO. Explosions of satellites (either 

by accident or by design) have also made a significant contribution to 

the current orbital debris situation.

Orbital debris concerns have captured the attention of nations 

worldwide. Thus, there are several international programs studying 

orbital debris through testing and modeling of space asset impacts 

and the debris environment. This has led to cooperation in the study 

of space debris through the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination 

Committee (IADC) and the United Nations (UN).40 Studies have 

shown that orbital debris in LEO continues to grow at a rate of approximately 5 percent annually.41 At that rate LEO will be so saturated 

with debris in the near future that the threat to space assets will be 

overwhelming.
148 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

One study that shows this alarming trend is the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) long-term debris environment model called Legend. The Legend model looks at projected 

future launch traffic based on historical data and sources of debris. 

The sources of debris include spent upper stages and spacecraft, missionrelated debris (MRD) released during spacecraft deployment or operations, explosion and collision fragments, and sodium potassium 

droplets that have been tracked since the 1990s (caused by Soviet 

space vehicle’s nuclear reactor ejections through the 1980s).42 The 

model also uses the industry-standard Monte Carlo simulation 

method due to the statistical nature of future collision events. Some 

interesting assumptions can be made about the future of orbital debris based on the results of Legend. First, collisions between objects 

larger than 10 centimeters (cm) will increase from the current average of approximately 1.4 times per year to an average rate of 5.3 times 

per year by 2035, which is an increase of about 9.5 percent per year. 

Second, “collisions between small objects (<10 cm) and large objects 

(>10 cm) average nearly 95 percent of all events.”43 Of those events 

about 98 percent are noncatastrophic.44 The modeling evidence presents an argument that “the statistics for catastrophic collision events 

are low in the historical period.”45 However, the catastrophic collision 

events begin to increase to an average of 5 percent by the end of the 

study period.46 The chance of one catastrophic event should be a 

cause for concern, but “even a non-catastrophic impact on an operational spacecraft could compromise a mission.”47

Explore Phase

The explore phase examines the issue of catastrophic collision of 

orbital debris in greater depth and determines the driving forces over 

the next five years. These forces can be predetermined elements or 

uncertainties.

The predetermined elements (relative certainties in the future) of 

orbital debris are that (1) launches will continue to occur worldwide, 

adding to the debris problem, and (2) current international space law 

will remain in effect for the foreseeable future.

Currently, the United States is the undisputed leader in space operations, averaging approximately 30 launches per year.48 Even with 

the cutbacks in manned missions, the “US will continue to launch 

assets in space at its current pace in order to replace or upgrade aging 
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 149

satellites due to the US’s growing reliance on space assets in LEO for 

ocean reconnaissance, weather forecasting, communications, and 

ground imaging.”49 Russia, the world’s second space power, is launching satellites at an impressive rate, averaging more than 25 launches 

per year.50 China (averaging six launches per year), Japan (averaging 

one to two launches per year), and the European Space Agency (averaging 10 launches per year) are expected to maintain or slightly increase their launch rates.51 Other active space programs such as Canada, 

India, Israel, Thailand, South Korea, North Korea, Brazil, Argentina, 

Australia, Spain, and Ukraine are expected to slightly increase their 

current sporadic launch rates.52

International regulations continue to exist and are refined for 

space. Current international space law relevant to orbital space debris, such as the Limited Test Ban Treaty of 1963, will remain in effect 

for the near future. This treaty bans the testing of nuclear weapons in 

the atmosphere, in outer space, and underwater.53 Therefore, states 

will not conduct nuclear weapon tests or other nuclear explosions 

in outer space or assist/encourage others to conduct such tests or 

explosions.54

The next space law currently in effect is the UN’s Outer Space 

Treaty of 1967, which establishes basic legal principles and prohibitions related to space.55 There are five main articles of this treaty related to orbital space debris. The first is Article IV, which states that 

“nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction may not be 

placed in orbit, installed on celestial bodies, or stationed in space in 

any other manner.”56 The second is Article VI, which says that states 

are responsible for all governmental and private space activities and 

are required to supervise and regulate private activities.57 The third is 

Article VII, which says that states are internationally liable for damage to states (and their citizens) caused by their own space objects 

(including privately owned ones).58 The fourth, Article VIII, says that 

states retain jurisdiction and control over space objects in space or on 

celestial bodies.59 The fifth and final article is Article IX, which says 

that states are required to conduct international consultations before 

proceeding with activities that would cause potentially harmful interference with activities of other parties.60 This article also says that 

states must carry out their own use and exploration of space in a way 

that avoids harmful contamination of outer space, the moon, and 

other celestial bodies, as well as avoiding the introduction of extrater-
150 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

restrial matter that could adversely affect the environment of the 

earth.61

Another treaty that is related to orbital space debris is the Antiballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty (1972) between the United States and the 

Soviet Union. This treaty prohibits the development, testing, or deployment of space-based ABM systems or the systems’ components.62

The next space law applicable to orbital space debris is the Liability 

Convention of 1972, which makes a launching state liable for damage 

by its space object to people and property on Earth, its atmosphere, 

or to another state’s space object.63 The last space law applicable to 

orbital space debris is the Convention on Registration of 1974. This 

law requires a party to maintain a registry of all objects launched into 

Earth orbit or beyond, and the information on orbital parameters 

and general function of the object must be furnished to the UN as 

soon as practical.64

There are numerous uncertainties (unpredictable forces) in store 

for the world over the next five years. Those concerning orbital debris 

are (1) technology, (2) exploitation of space vulnerabilities via cyberspace, (3) economic developments, and (4) natural disasters.

Currently, the configuration of global space technologies and assets is highly desirable from a US perspective.65 The United States 

relies heavily on space assets for a myriad of capabilities. Some have 

voiced worries that the United States will lose its lead as the global 

innovator in technology or that an enemy could make technological 

leaps that would give it significant advantages.66 That is possible, but 

by no means a foregone conclusion.67 However, one thing is clear: 

“technology will proliferate.”68

Space technology has become increasingly available to any country 

or multinational corporation with the ability to fund the research or 

acquire the technology and place it in orbit.69 The increasing proliferation of launch and satellite capabilities, as well as the development 

of antisatellite (ASAT) capabilities, has begun to level the playing 

field.70 Technological advances in kinetic-energy weapons by adversaries could cause structural damage by impacting the target with 

one or more high-speed masses, by ground- or air-based directedenergy weapons never getting close to their target, and by nuclear 

weapons detonating at an empty point in space, potentially putting 

our space assets at risk in the near future.71 Kinetic-energy weapons 

are of growing concern. For example, in 2007 China successfully 

tested a direct-ascent, kinetic-kill ASAT vehicle that destroyed an in-
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 151

active Chinese weather satellite. This test generated thousands of 

pieces of space debris that threatened many operational spacecraft.72

Another kinetic-energy weapon is microsatellites (microsats). 

Currently, at least 40 countries have demonstrated some ability to design, build, launch, and operate microsats.73 Microsats can maneuver 

to observe and disrupt operations of orbiting assets and may soon be 

capable of harassing or destroying larger satellites at virtually any 

altitude.74 Because these satellites are so small, they may not be easily 

detectable as part of a payload or when maneuvering in space.

Directed-energy weapons are laser, radio frequency, and particle 

beam weapons. Lasers operate by delivering energy onto the surface 

of the target. Gradual or rapid absorption of this energy leads to several 

forms of thermal damage.75 Radio frequency (RF) weapons such as 

the high-power microwave have either ground- or space-based RF 

emitters that fire an intense burst of radio energy at a satellite, disabling electronic components.76 Nuclear weapons are perhaps the 

technology of most concern to US space assets. Some argue, though, 

that adversaries would not use nuclear weapons in space out of fear of 

retaliation.77 Others say, “What better way to use nuclear weapons 

than to destroy a key military capability of an enemy country without 

killing any of its population?”78 Regardless of the arguments, a nuclear 

detonation would have three huge environmental effects in space: 

electromagnetic pulse (EMP), transient nuclear radiation, and thermal 

radiation.79

EMP from a nuclear detonation will induce potentially damaging 

voltages and currents in unprotected electronic circuits and components, virtually rendering space assets inoperative.80 Increased radiation from such a detonation would also have profound effects on the 

space environment. This would severely damage nearby orbiting satellites, 

reducing the lifetime of satellites in LEO from years to months or less 

and making satellite operations futile for many months.81 The risk of 

this potential threat is significant. To execute this mission, all one 

needs is a rocket and a simple nuclear device.82 Iran, North Korea, 

Iraq, and Pakistan possess missiles that could carry warheads to the 

necessary altitudes to perform such missions.83 Technological advances 

in adversary weaponry are certainly hard to predict even in the near 

term. However, if this weaponry matures and is successfully used, it 

will create additional space debris from the orbiting satellites being 

rendered inoperative (space junk), which will become potential hazards 

to other satellites.
152 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

Another unpredictable driving force is adversary exploitation of 

space vulnerabilities via the cyber domain. Through cyberspace, 

enemies (both state and nonstate actors) will target industry, academia, government, and the military in the air, land, maritime, and 

space domains.84 One of the easiest ways to disrupt, deny, degrade, or 

destroy the utility of space assets is to attack or sabotage the associated ground segments through cyberspace.85 The ground segments 

includes telemetering, tracking, and commanding space assets and 

space-launch functions. Ground stations are an extremely critical 

piece of a satellite’s continued operation. However, many satellite 

tracking and control stations are lightly guarded, and many satellite 

communications, launch, data reception, and control facilities are described in numerous open-source materials, making the ground segment 

extremely vulnerable to cyber attack.86 An attack on a fixed-ground 

facility can stop data transmission, render launch facilities unusable, 

and prevent control of satellites.87 A single incident or a small number 

of incidents could significantly impact space systems for years.88

The next unpredictable driving force is economic developments. 

The recent economic downturn has been felt worldwide, but the US 

dollar is still the primary unit of international trade, allowing for borrowing at relatively low rates of interest.89 However, the increased 

trend of borrowing creates uncertainty about the ability of the United 

States to repay the ever-growing debt and the future of the US dollar.90

Plus, any lending stop would push the dollar down and drive inflation and interest rates up.91 This dynamic could encourage the establishment of new reserve currencies as global economic actors search 

for alternatives to the dollar.92 These changes in global economic conditions could have important implications for global security. The 

changes could decrease the United States’ purchasing power and the 

ability to allocate resources, especially for defense purposes, causing 

power shifts around the world that could adversely affect global 

stability. Considering these economic challenges and the relatively 

high cost of launching satellites, this could impact requests for space 

services worldwide and potentially slow the rate of newly generated 

orbital debris.

The last unpredictable driving force is natural disasters. If largescale hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, or other natural disasters 

occur in the United States, particularly when the nation’s economy is 

in a fragile state and US military bases or key civilian infrastructure 

is affected, these disasters could adversely impact US security.93 Areas 
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 153

of the United States where there is great potential to suffer large-scale 

effects are the hurricane-prone areas of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts 

and the earthquake zones on the West Coast.94 These two areas also 

happen to be the locations where the majority of US space launches 

occur at Vandenberg AFB, California, and Cape Canaveral AFS, 

Florida. If a natural disaster occurred in these two areas, the United 

States could be forced to rely on other countries to provide launch 

services. Also, if any of these natural disasters were to occur at any of 

the satellite tracking and control stations located throughout the 

world, they would disrupt communications with active satellites, 

forcing the United States to switch to an alternate station. However, 

due to the loss of satellite control, other space assets in close proximity 

could be at risk of a potential collision with that satellite.

Synthesize Phase

The synthesize phase combines the driving forces to create scenarios. 

Two driving forces—the most important and most uncertain to the 

focal issue of a catastrophic collision from orbital space debris in the 

year 2015—must be selected. These two driving forces are technology 

and future conflicts. These critical uncertainties are placed on two 

separate axes called “axes of extremes representing a continuum of 

possibilities ranging between two extremes.”95 These two axes are 

then crossed to create a rough scenario framework, which can be 

used to explore the four possible scenarios for the future.96 Each 

quadrant of the matrix represents a possible scenario or a potential 

future.

Next, a short, distinctive yet descriptive name for each notional 

future is created, and a brief scenario narrative is provided for each. 

The four future scenarios are (1) enemy of mine, (2) space Pearl Harbor, (3) eyes wide shut, and (4) lost in space in the year 2015 (fig. 6.2).

“Enemy of mine” is an adversary’s deliberate attack on space assets 

using kinetic- or directed-energy weapons. This scenario is driven by 

an adversary’s advanced technical ability to launch an ASAT or a microsat (such as a space mine) into space to destroy or disable a satellite. It 

is also driven by an adversary’s advanced ability to use a ground- or 

air-based system from a distance (such as a laser) to disable a satellite.

If an adversary is willing to use these weapons in a sneak attack and 

wants to remain somewhat hidden, there is a high probability that he 

or she would also be willing to conduct other attacks, such as cyber, 
154 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

in the same way. In this scenario, the use of these weapons renders 

the targeted satellites inoperative, resulting in another piece of orbital 

debris that puts other operational satellites at risk.

High

Low

More Less 

Enemy of Mine Eyes Wide Shut

A deliberate attack on

space assets using

kinetic or directed-energy

weapons, creating elds

of space debris.

Space Pearl Harbor

A deliberate nuclear

detonations in space by

an adversary.

A deliberate cyber attack

against space assets

which could lead to the

generation of space

collisions.

Lost in Space

An inadvertent collision

with a space asset from

orbital space debris.

Adversary Space Tech Advances

Probability of Exploring Vulnerabilities via Cyber

Figure 6.2. Complete scenario framework. (Adapted from Diane Scearce 

and Katherine Fulton, What If? The Art of Scenario Thinking for Nonprofits [Emeryville, CA: Global Business Network, 2004]: 72.)

“Space Pearl Harbor” is a deliberate nuclear detonation in space by 

an adversary (such as North Korea or Iran). This type of future is 

driven by the adversary’s technical ability to possess a nuclear weapon 

and a missile to carry it and the ability to remotely detonate the device. Even though several countries possess these capabilities independently, technological advances in systems engineering are required to pull all the capabilities together to be successful. This 

scenario would not only wipe out nearby satellites from the blast and 

radiation, but also create huge amounts of additional orbital debris, 

increasing the likelihood of catastrophic collisions with other space 

assets. Since the United States has numerous nuclear detection satellites orbiting the earth, the adversary’s location would likely be readily 

identified before satellites were rendered inoperative. Therefore, considering that an adversary is willing to launch an attack of such magnitude, this adversary is not worried about conducting sneak attacks 

and is unlikely to wage a cyber attack.

“Eyes wide shut” involves an adversary’s deliberate cyber attack 

against space assets, specifically ground stations. This scenario is 
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 155

driven by an adversary’s high probability to conduct cyber attacks. 

Because many countries have developed these capabilities, space 

technology advances are not required to conduct such an attack. 

Some countries even have “hackers that routinely probe DOD networks and computers.”97 In this scenario, communication to satellites 

and data transmission from the satellites to the ground stations are 

completely severed. Without the communication link, satellite control is lost, and the satellites become large masses of hurling orbital 

debris, putting other satellites at risk of a collision.

“Lost in space” is an inadvertent collision of a space asset with one 

of the thousands of pieces of existing orbital debris. This scenario is 

very real, and because it is attributed to the current debris situation, 

it isn’t driven by either adversary technological advances or the probability of cyber attacks. The ISS has had several documented near 

misses with space junk. In each instance the ISS was maneuvered out 

of harm’s way to avoid the objects. However, this scenario features a 

direct hit. A small piece of debris (no more than 20 mm in diameter) 

is detected without time to instruct the ISS to take evasive measures. 

The debris, traveling at about 10 times the speed of a rifle bullet, 

strikes the ISS, creating a massive hole in the huge structure. The collision is so severe that it knocks out the on-board communication 

and life support system, and the ISS is sent tumbling out of control. 

The ISS and crew are lost.

Act Phase

The act phase identifies the scenario implications and a strategic 

agenda (a set of priorities to help make progress on long-term goals). 

What would it be like living in one of these scenarios? Is there anything one could do to avoid or mitigate these scenarios for the future? 

The answers to the first question identify scenario implications in 

global communication, the economy, safety, and US national security. 

The answers to the second question identify a strategic agenda in 

order to mitigate the orbital debris problem.

The world has become increasingly reliant on satellites to provide 

information for such uses as communications, Internet access, navigation, military surveillance, environmental research, and banking. 

A loss of one or several satellites that facilitate these services (from a 

deliberate act by an adversary) could affect nearly everyone on the 

planet, especially if it was a nuclear detonation in space. The first im-
156 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

plication is the disruption of global communications. People would 

not be able to communicate via cell phones or the Internet. The world 

banking industry would shut down, crippling an already fragile 

economy. US and coalition military forces around the world would 

not have the ability to use space assets for surveillance and GPS navigation to track friendly forces or target/destroy enemy forces, leaving 

US and coalition forces vulnerable to attack and potential fratricide. 

In fact, a similar situation on a much smaller scale already occurred 

when a single satellite, Galaxy IV, lost its bearing in 1998.98 Forty-five 

million people, including hospital personnel, were disconnected 

from their paging service.99 Also, local affiliates of media such as 

National Public Radio ceased broadcasting; Reuters was unable to 

send wire stories to media outlets; and Chinese Television Network 

couldn’t transmit any of their news feeds.100 Automated teller machines experienced service interruptions, as did credit card systems 

at gas stations and grocery stores.101

A second implication deals with world safety. As in the scenario 

“Lost in space,” the loss of a costly space asset (the ISS) and the death 

of an international crew would be devastating to all countries affected. 

The threat of this particular incident is very real. In fact, the preliminary results of a recent NASA risk assessment of the decommissioned 

space shuttle put the risk of a manned spaceflight mission into perspective. The study concluded that “space debris accounts for 11 out 

of 20 of the most likely scenarios that could lead to the loss of another 

shuttle.”102 Another safety issue of concern, which could be the result 

of any of the four stated scenarios, is the reentry of space debris into 

the atmosphere and its possible impact on Earth. Over the years, the 

world has, fortunately, not had any major incidents, primarily due to 

the fact that large amounts of debris burn up harmlessly in the earth’s 

atmosphere before impact. However, the possibility remains, especially with the growing amount of debris in LEO.

The third implication is the effect on US national security. Imagine 

the potential ramifications from scenarios “enemy of mine” or “eyes 

wide shut” “if space debris destroyed an early-warning satellite of an 

adversary nuclear-armed nation.”103 The United States may not get 

any advanced warning of a launched nuclear attack against us or our 

allies.

What strategic agenda should be prescribed to avoid or mitigate 

the possible scenarios for the future and implications from orbital 

debris? Author Michael O’Hanlon offers up some very good sugges-
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 157

tions. These include (1) hardening and defending US satellites, (2) 

improving space monitoring, and (3) providing backup/alternatives 

to satellite capabilities. In addition to these strategies, the United 

States must continue to work with other countries to come up with 

solutions for clearing and reducing the proliferation of orbital debris.

First, hardening and defending US satellites would “require the 

continued hardening against nuclear effects, and where practical, 

more satellites should employ radio transmission frequencies and 

signal strengths capable of penetrating a nuclear disturbed atmosphere.”104 These measures ensure at least minimum levels of bandwidth shortly after a nuclear attack.105 LEO satellites should also have 

sensors to detect laser illuminations and other attack mechanisms, as 

well as the means to temporarily protect themselves against such attacks through shutter controls, which would shield their optics.106

Second, improved space monitoring would allow the United States 

“to know if its satellites are under attack or likely soon to be under attack.”107 Sensors could trigger the deployment of shields or other protective measures against certain types of threats, such as lasers.108 They 

could also allow ways for a satellite to identify approaching microsats 

in order to maneuver away from a kinetic or explosive attack.109

Third, backup satellite capabilities would allow the United States to 

have “some additional satellite capability in its inventory at all times, 

together with the ability to launch and make operational such satellites quickly to mitigate vulnerabilities to ASAT weapons.”110 Alternative satellite capabilities, especially from a military standpoint, would 

be a good idea as well. Numerous airborne assets, such as those for 

imaging, signals intelligence, targeting, guidance, and communications, should be part of the force inventory.111 Fiber-optic lines and 

undersea lines should be retained in many regions of the world to 

permit high-volume intercontinental communications even if satellites are lost.112 Naval fleets, ground-force units, and aircraft should 

retain the ability to communicate internally through line-of-sight 

and airborne techniques to function as single entities if satellites are 

disrupted.113

Finally, the United States must continue partnering with other 

countries to implement solutions to reduce and prevent orbital 

debris. There are several potential ideas, such as using robotic trash 

collectors or attaching electrodynamic tethers to new satellites so that 

when they reach the end of their mission, they can be sent into Earth’s 

atmosphere to burn up. A UK technology to clear clouds of debris in 
158 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

LEO was introduced to the world on 26 March 2010. Scientists have 

designed and engineered a 3-kilogram miniature satellite fitted with 

a solar sail, called CubeSail.

114 CubeSail can be fitted to satellites or 

launch vehicles being sent into orbit and can be deployed to de-orbit 

assets at the end of their mission.115

Also, the United States and other countries must reach more space 

policies, treaties, and agreements to ban tests in space that produce 

debris and mandate the hardening of satellites being launched into 

space. Recent international cooperation has shown some very promising steps toward making this a reality. The formation of the IADC 

between the United States, the European Space Agency, the National 

Space Development Agency of Japan, the Russian Federal Space 

Agency, and space agencies from Britain, France, India, Germany, 

Italy, and the Ukraine has certainly promoted an awareness of the 

orbital debris problem. This group began making presentations to the 

UN Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS) in 

1997.116 Several technical debris mitigation guidelines were submitted 

to COPUOS in 2002 and officially endorsed by the UN General 

Assembly in 2007.117 However, the endorsement wasn’t legally binding, so implementation of debris-mitigation guidelines still lies in the 

hands of the different nations’ governments.118 Therefore, there is 

much work yet to be done in this area.

Monitor Phase

The monitor phase identifies the specific warning signals or other 

leading indicators that could forecast whether or not a future scenario is about to unfold. Unfortunately, the warning signs and leading indicators for a potential catastrophic collision between orbital 

debris and space assets are already upon us. The numerous recorded 

debris collision incidents, coupled with the expected increase in 

future launch rates, are very alarming. Also, the increasing availability 

of space technology to adversary countries and the rise in cyber conflicts, coupled with the current vulnerabilities of US space assets, 

could be a recipe for a catastrophe within the next five years. China’s 

successful ASAT test in 2007 and the ISS near-miss collision with 

debris in 2009 are certainly two big wake-up calls to the world that 

now is the time to do something about the orbital debris situation.
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 159

Conclusion

The warning signs and leading indicators for a catastrophic collision between orbital debris and satellites or manned spaceflight missions are all around us. If significant strides are not made within the 

next five years to clear and remove orbital debris, a loss of satellites 

and the death of space crews could be the result. Furthermore, if 

something isn’t done to better protect space assets now, it could lead 

to adversaries exploiting vulnerabilities through various kinetic, 

nuclear, and cyber attacks, causing satellites to become inoperative. 

This would lead to the generation of new debris, which would further 

compound the orbital debris problem. The effects of this would be felt 

worldwide with the disruption of communications, Internet access, 

navigation, military surveillance, environmental research, and the 

banking industry. The best way to avoid these consequences is to continue to harden satellites, improve space monitoring, and develop 

backups/alternatives to satellite capabilities. As mentioned, the 

United States must also continue to partner with other countries to 

implement solutions of clearing and reducing the proliferation of orbital debris. The world can change the potential alarming future of a 

catastrophic collision from orbital debris. The time to act is now.

Notes

1. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 30.

2. Ibid., 69.

3. Ibid., 42.

4. Liou and Johnson, “Risks in Space,” 340.

5. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 42.

6. Robson, “Calling Occupants of Interplanetary Craft,” 24.

7. Ibid.

8. Ibid.

9. Ibid.

10. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 42.

11. Ibid., 24.

12. Ibid.

13. Malik, “Debris Scare,” 12.

14. Krisko, “Predicted Growth of the Low-Earth Orbit,” 983–84.

15. Robson, “Calling Occupants of Interplanetary Craft,” 24.

16. Than, “Orbital Cleanup,” 30.

17. Ibid.

18. Ibid.
160 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

19. Scearce and Fulton, What If?, 7.

20. Ibid.

21. Ibid.

22. Ibid.

23. Ibid., 8.

24. Ibid.

25. Ibid., 24.

26. Ibid., 25.

27. Ibid.

28. Ibid., 27.

29. Ibid.

30. Ibid.

31. Ibid.

32. Ibid.

33. Ibid., 30.

34. Ibid.

35. Ibid., 31.

36. Ibid.

37. Ibid., 33.

38. Ibid.

39. Ibid.

40. Krisko, “Predicted Growth of the Low-Earth Orbit,” 975.

41. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 42.

42. Krisko, “Predicted Growth of the Low-Earth Orbit,” 976.

43. Ibid., 981.

44. Ibid.

45. Ibid., 982.

46. Ibid.

47. Ibid., 983.

48. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 53.

49. Ibid., 51.

50. Ibid., 53.

51. Ibid., 54–57.

52. Ibid., 57–58.

53. AU-18, Space Primer, 57.

54. Ibid., 57.

55. Frey, “Defense of Space Assets,” 76.

56. AU-18, Space Primer, 57.

57. Ibid.

58. Ibid.

59. Ibid.

60. Ibid.

61. Ibid.

62. Ibid., 58.

63. Ibid.

64. Ibid.

65. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 62.
CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON │ 161

66. JOE 2010: Joint Operating Environment, 54.

67. Ibid.

68. Ibid., 55.

69. Ibid., 36.

70. Ibid.

71. AU-18, Space Primer, 276–79.

72. Ibid., 276–77.

73. Ibid., 277.

74. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 65.

75. AU-18, Space Primer, 277.

76. Ibid., 278.

77. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 67.

78. Ibid.

79. AU-18, Space Primer, 279.

80. Ibid., 280.

81. Ibid.

82. Ibid.

83. Ibid.

84. JOE 2010, Joint Operating Environment, 36.

85. AU-18, Space Primer, 273.

86. Ibid., 274.

87. Ibid.

88. Ibid.

89. JOE 2010, Joint Operating Environment, 19.

90. Ibid.

91. Ibid.

92. Ibid., 20.

93. Ibid., 33.

94. Ibid.

95. Scearce and Fulton, What If?, 28.

96. Ibid.

97. AU-18, Space Primer, 274.

98. David, “Clutter Above,” 33.

99. Ibid.

100. Ibid.

101. Ibid., 33–34.

102. Ibid., 33.

103. Ibid., 34.

104. O’Hanlon, Neither Space Wars nor Sanctuary, 123.

105. Ibid.

106. Ibid.

107. Ibid.

108. Ibid.

109. Ibid., 124.

110. Ibid., 128.

111. Ibid., 129.

112. Ibid., 129–30.
162 │ CATASTROPHE ON THE HORIZON

113. Ibid., 130.

114. Wheeler, Mission to Clear Dangerous Debris, 1.

115. Ibid.

116. Black and Butt, “Growing Threat of Space Debris,” 2.

117. Ibid.

118. Ibid.
Chapter 7

Waste to Watts and Water

Lt Col Amanda S. Birch

The year is 2030. At a major US expeditionary base, the power grid 

has failed, and limited fuel is available for purchase. Water reservoirs 

are nearly empty, and now fear is spreading that militants have contaminated available water resources. Health concerns take center stage 

as the sewage treatment plant and waste disposal systems stop working. 

Thankfully, the USAF has a powerful weapon that can save the day. 

After 20 years of research and development, the microbial fuel cell 

(MFC) gives expeditionary and home station commanders a capability 

to produce clean energy and clean water while using only wastewater 

and other organic wastes as fuel.

The USAF should invest in MFC research because this technology 

gives life to sustainable facilities decoupled from the infrastructure 

network, a key capability for national security in the 2030 environment. MFC capabilities, however, will not find success via research 

and development (R&D) investment alone. The USAF must collaborate within the Department of Defense (DOD) and beyond while 

taking a holistic systems approach to bring MFC capability to fruition. A successful strategy for MFCs will address not only the technological barriers but also the key social, industrial, and political hurdles 

that will bring about significant monetary and resource savings for 

the USAF.

The research methodology applied to capture all of these potential 

hurdles in MFC technology is the relevance tree. According to a report 

from The Futures Group International, this analytic technique ensures comprehensive exploration of a problem by breaking the system 

into increasingly smaller subsystems. The aim is to break the problem 

into enough detail so that the issues can be resolved by exploring 

potential options at key nodes.1

Relevance tree methodology is a natural fit to explore future development and use of MFC technology. It allows consideration of a larger 

context than mere technical feasibility. Books such as Megamistakes: 

Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change and Forecasting: 

An Appraisal for Policy Makers and Planners make it clear that 
164 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

technological feasibility alone plays only a small part in adoption of 

new technologies; social, industrial, political, and economic factors 

often have the decisive role.2

For a current example of why this system’s approach is important to 

emerging technology analysis, look no further than biofuels. The European Union (EU) did not analyze biofuels using a systems approach 

prior to policy decisions. The EU issued policy “to replace 10 percent of 

transport fuel with biofuels . . . by 2020,” but this “green” idea furthered 

global warming, deforestation, and food and water shortages.3

 If a relevance tree methodology had been applied to biofuels, the EU might 

have avoided a costly and embarrassing policy decision.

The relevance tree research methodology drives the structure of 

this chapter. First, the relevancy of MFCs is established for airpower, 

national security, the 2030 environment, and applications outside 

primary DOD interest. After relevancy is established, the chapter 

explores the concept of self-contained facilities. Since MFCs are a key 

capability that could enable self-contained facilities, the technology is 

explained from a technological perspective and then analyzed along 

with other significant issues surrounding the technology using the 

relevance tree. Once the relevance tree is defined, key-node analysis 

in the technological, social, industrial, and political realms facilitates 

conclusions about the feasibility of a strategic plan to enable this 

capability to enhance US national security by the year 2030.

Who Cares?

The problem that MFCs address is defined by looking at their relevancy. Relevancy is first described in terms of air, space, and cyber 

power. Next, the research looks at the broader relevancy to national 

security, the 2030 environment, and beyond the DOD.

Relevancy to Air, Space, and Cyber Power

Facilities have evolved from mere shelters to force projection platforms and command centers (such as the AN/USQ-163 Falconer Air 

and Space Operations Center weapon system) and will be critical to 

air, space, and cyber power as long as humans are involved with force 

projection.4

 What demands will be placed on future facilities as we 

enter the cyber age and beyond? Since current facilities must last at 

least 67 years, USAF leaders must define a strategic capabilities plan 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 165

for future facilities that approaches the facility life cycle but is flexible 

enough to meet intermediate requirements.5

One capability the USAF will require in future facilities is the ability to operate apart from the infrastructure network and line of communications (LOC) in a clean and efficient manner, both in an expeditionary environment and within the United States. Today’s facilities 

tie to a power grid, a water distribution system, and a wastewater 

disposal network, creating key nodes of vulnerability in both the 

physical and cyber realms.6

 Facility locations are limited to areas with 

developed infrastructure that exists or that must be built. What if a 

single technology could eliminate infrastructure dependency for all 

three of these services? MFCs hold this promise.

The MFC promise for the USAF extends beyond infrastructure 

decoupling both abroad and at home. For expeditionary facilities, 

airlift requirements are reduced for light, transportable, reusable, maneuverable cities that do not require heavy equipment to build, infrastructure to support, or fuels to sustain. Today’s mobile electric power 

(MEP), for example, “requires . . . up to 4,000 gallons per day of fuel 

sustainment, placing a severe burden on an already stressed air fleet.”7

MFC technology’s potential to reduce airlift requirements and build 

operating bases in any environment relates to the strategic principle 

of agility, as defined by the National Military Strategy (NMS).8

 Additionally, fuel moving through ground LOCs creates exploitable vulnerabilities to equipment, supplies, and personnel that would be 

mitigated if facilities required less or no fuel and water to operate. For 

facilities in a homeland defense posture (which all USAF facilities 

must expect), decentralized utilities shift risks away from vulnerable 

physical and cyber infrastructure nodes, eliminating critical targets 

for the enemy. This is important because the first national military 

objective defined in the NMS is to protect the United States, and the 

National Strategy for Combating Terrorism calls for “defense of potential targets of attack” to include critical infrastructure such as energy 

and water.9

 Furthermore, the synergy of using the same MFC technology at home and abroad will reduce craftsmen’s training requirements while increasing their competence.

As a final note on MFC relevancy to the USAF, I narrowed the 

scope of this research to facility applications, but MFC significance is 

not limited to facilities alone. MFCs could be used in any application 

that requires clean energy, clean water, or organic waste disposal. 

Some obvious benefits beyond facilities include power for micro air 
166 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

vehicles; power for space assets; clean water, power, and waste treatment for aircraft latrines; power for ground vehicles; and clean, low 

heat signature generators for flight-line use.10

Relevancy to National Security beyond Air, Space, and Cyber 

Power

While the link between MFCs and air, space, and cyber power is 

clear, it is even more important to understand the broader link to US 

national security. This link will be discussed under four main topics: 

(1) reducing natural resource consumption, (2) eliminating spark 

points for world conflicts, (3) prioritizing stability, security, transition, and reconstruction (SSTR) operations, and (4) accomplishing 

tasks outlined in the National Security Strategy (NSS).

Reducing energy consumption and natural resource dependency 

is a national security issue. The Whole Building Design Guide Sustainable Committee notes that “with America’s supply of fossil fuel 

dwindling [and] concerns for energy supply security increasing, . . . it 

is essential to find ways to reduce load, increase efficiency, and utilize 

renewable fuel resources in federal facilities.”11 Lt Col John Amidon 

agrees: “The current world energy situation poses a national threat 

unparalleled in 225 years . . . [and] meeting this dilemma with a technical solution plays on America’s greatest strengths, those of the inventor and the innovator.”12 The president codified this concern about 

natural resource dependency for both energy and water in Executive 

Order 13423, which requires agencies to reduce energy use by 3 percent a year (or 30 percent total) by 2015 and to reduce water consumption by 2 percent a year (or 20 percent total) by 2015.13 The 

president launched goals that are even more aggressive in December 

2007 by signing the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.14

Considering that buildings in the United States consume 68 percent 

of electricity, facilities are a logical target to reduce natural resource 

dependency.15 Former secretary of the Air Force Michael Wynn 

agrees with these goals: “The reliance on imported oil continues to 

threaten the economic, financial, and physical security of the nation 

while the use of domestic fossil fuels contributes to nationwide pollution problems. The Air Force believes that development of renewable 

energy sources for facility energy is one important element of our 

comprehensive strategy.”16 The DOD also understands the link of energy 

to national security and to the military instrument of power. The Defense 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 167

Science Board expressed this in a report linking fuel efficiency to six 

principles of war: surprise, mass, efficiency, maneuver, security, and 

simplicity.17 A 2007 poll conducted for the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy shows that 63 percent of Americans also 

agreed that energy is a national security issue by confirming that energy 

issues threaten the United States more than terrorists.18 In summary, 

natural resource consumption is a national security concern acknowledged by the president, confirmed by the USAF, and linked to the 

principles of war. Facilities are a logical starting point for reducing 

resource consumption.

While the focus of this research is on US national security, technologies that reduce water and energy dependency could contribute 

to a reduction in armed conflicts throughout the world—conflicts 

that the United States often attempts to resolve. Since water and energy resources spark conflicts, alternative solutions to obtaining these 

natural resources would prevent conflicts.19 Three examples come to 

mind. First, in the Future Capabilities Game 2007 (FG07), the scenario’s conflict concerned natural resources. If the natural resources 

were available through MFCs or other technologies, could the conflict have been prevented? The second example concerns the peaceful 

split of the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993. Could the “velvet 

divorce” that resulted in peace and good governance have occurred if 

resources such as oil or water were at stake?20 The final example is the 

Jordan River Basin, which includes Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, 

and the West Bank. Since 1948, 18 “extensive war acts causing deaths, 

dislocation, or high strategic costs” and dozens more hostile acts have 

occurred in this region.21 Would these conflicts be less likely to start 

or be more likely candidates for peaceful resolution if water resources 

were available through a technological breakthrough? Critics find 

that natural resource availability will not be a panacea for conflicts 

that also have deeper cultural roots. These examples establish the argument that water and energy resource availability, enabled by MFCs or 

other technologies, could contribute to future world stability by offering diplomats a tool to pursue a better state of peace.

The third link of MFCs to national security is in the growing priority 

of SSTR operations. Today such missions are not in vogue with the 

USAF’s institutional infatuation with technology.22 However, for the 

future, MFCs will provide capability that will be useful in all four 

quadrants of military challenges shown in the 2006 Quadrennial 

Defense Review (QDR)—irregular, catastrophic, disruptive, and 
168 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

traditional challenges.23 Additionally, MFCs will provide capabilities that are essential to all six operation plan phases as described 

in Joint Publication (JP) 3-0, Joint Operations.

24 The broad applicability of MFC capability allows this technology to fill a niche 

outside the “seize and dominate” phases and traditional security 

challenges where USAF technological innovation attention is typically focused.

MFC technology moves the USAF toward the 2005 DOD Directive 

(DODD) 3000.05, Military Support, which states, “Stability operations 

are a core US military mission. . . . They shall be given priority comparable to combat operations.”25 Since stability is key to transferring 

power to civil authorities, and since facility and infrastructure construction are a large component of stability, the United States could 

use MFC technology to expedite this transition in areas with damaged or absent infrastructure. New USAF irregular warfare doctrine 

acknowledges this mission by a call to civil engineers to perform it.26

Another stabilization role the US military performs is humanitarian 

relief. “Humanitarian relief has long been recognized as a mission of 

the American armed forces,” and the massive response to the “most 

destructive tsunami ever recorded” in Indonesia in 2004 is an example 

of the need for a capability to produce clean drinking water in the 

absence of operational infrastructure.27

Whether the military likes to acknowledge this aspect of its mission or not, SSTR operations are a core mission. While assigned to 

Iraq, Army captain John Prior captured the sentiment that is prevalent in today’s writing on SSTR and counterinsurgency efforts: “‘Infrastructure is the key now,’ Prior said more than once. ‘If these people 

have electricity, water, food, the basics of life, they’re less likely to attack.’ 

Sewage, Prior realized, was the front line of nation-building.”28 The 

infrastructure provided by US military teams paves the way for winning the hearts and minds of the indigenous population by meeting 

its basic needs, which in turn adds legitimacy to stressed governments after war or disaster. In short, MFC technology adds capability 

across all phases of war and all types of challenges.

Using the military instrument of power (IOP) for nation building 

is a possibility based on DODD 3000.05, but the NSS links infrastructure development efforts to two essential strategic tasks that leverage 

the diplomatic and economic IOPs as well. The two essential tasks 

outlined in the NSS that relate to MFC technology are (1) to “ignite a 

new era of global economic growth through free markets and free 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 169

trade,” which includes “secure, clean energy development,” and (2) to 

“expand the circle of development by opening societies and building 

the infrastructure of democracy.”29 The US Department of State 

(DOS) could support both objectives by helping developing nations 

become stable democracies using technology such as MFCs that enable 

modular, cost-effective, resource-savvy, low-maintenance, infrastructurefree facilities, especially in remote and impoverished areas. Furthermore, using MFC technology in impoverished areas provides clean 

water, combats disease, and helps states integrate impoverished nations 

lacking infrastructure into the global economy.30 Nongovernmental 

organizations (NGO) could use MFCs in a similar manner to further 

these NSS objectives, but they could also use the technology as a 

baseline for establishing or supporting refugee camps or humanitarian relief efforts. The DOS and NGOs could use MFC technologies 

to accomplish essential strategic tasks specified in the NSS.

To recap, MFCs could enhance national security beyond air, space, 

and cyber power in four ways: (1) reducing natural resource consumption, (2) eliminating world conflict spark points, (3) prioritizing 

SSTR operations, and (4) accomplishing essential tasks outlined in 

the NSS.

Relevancy to the 2030 Environment

The relevancy of MFC technology for air, space, and cyber power, 

and the larger national security context in today’s environment, is 

evident, but that relevancy will grow even more as we approach the 

year 2030. MFCs will be a key defense capability regardless of which 

future threat dominates in 2030. Four main threat scenarios could 

depict the 2030 environment, and each of these scenarios needs MFC 

technology to enable national security. If the United States faces a 

conventional, major-theater enemy in 2030, MFCs will be needed to 

enable expeditionary and homeland facilities from which to project 

traditional air, space, and cyber power. If the terrorist threat to the 

homeland dominates in 2030, MFCs will be needed to eliminate key 

nodes of vulnerability in the homeland infrastructure (such as the 

power grid, water, and wastewater systems). If counterinsurgencies, 

small wars, and humanitarian crises (such as those faced over the 

past 50 years in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan) characterize the 

next century, MFCs will be needed to provide critical infrastructure 

to “win hearts and minds” and legitimize nascent governments. If 
170 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

energy and water shortages or environmental concerns are the biggest national security concern in 2030, MFCs will be needed to provide green power and clean water.31 No matter which scenario strategic planners assume is most important for 2030, MFCs could reduce 

the probability of strategic surprise if R&D investment begins now.32

The argument that follows looks more closely at the fourth scenario—

water and energy resource shortages. Steven Schnaars, a marketing 

professor who specializes in future technologies, observes that “forecasters are imprisoned by their times.”33 Humans tend to look at today’s crisis and project it into the future. Conventional threats, terrorism, small wars, insurgencies, and humanitarian crises are today’s 

discernable threats covered extensively in the literature and the Air 

Command and Staff College curriculum. Energy and water resource 

shortages are tomorrow’s strategic threats that are often overlooked, 

creating strategic risk.

Energy will continue to be a concern in 2030. In 2007 the US Department of Energy (DOE) forecasted international power demand 

to double by 2030.34 Today’s energy crisis is well-recognized and built 

into future national security strategy.35 Projects to reduce consumption and to transition to green power sources are under way. The projected crisis for power, then, is not likely to be quantity and sources, 

but availability.

Today’s facilities depend on a power grid that has both physical 

vulnerabilities (enemy actions, natural disasters, and demand saturation) and cyber vulnerabilities (control software). Distributing the 

network into smaller pieces reduces risk, with an ultimate goal of individual self-contained facilities with collocated production and consumption. Besides reducing risk, after initial capital investment, 

power costs would drop since 30 percent of most electric bills is for 

transmission costs, and 10 percent of electricity is lost in transmission.36 Self-contained facilities would be more likely to survive physical 

or cyber terror attacks as well as natural disasters.37 Consumers could 

also reduce vulnerability to brownouts that threaten productivity and 

the economy.38 Self-contained facilities address the nonavailability threat.

Water availability will be a bigger natural resource crisis in 2030 

than decision makers grasp today. Planning failures for this emerging 

shortage will result in a strategic surprise, forcing crisis action or 

emergency responses that will divert attention from the USAF’s main 

goals.39 A potential water shortage in 2030 is well documented, and 

the USAF must prepare for it today. Water shortage forecasts are 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 171

available, for those willing to heed them, in future scenarios, futurists’ 

predictions, and mainstream media.

Four credible future scenario projects highlight a future shortage 

of water. First, the United Nations (UN) Millennium Project scenarios 

lend credibility to the prediction of a global water shortage in the 

2030 time frame. In its product 2007 State of the Future, “providing 

sufficient clean water for everyone, without conflict” is one of the “15 

Global Challenges” that need to be addressed “to improve prospects 

for humanity.”40 These futurists observe that today “more than 1 billion people do not have access to safe drinking water” and that “by 

2025, 1.8 billion people could be living in water-scarce areas desperate 

enough for mass migrations, and another 3 billion could live in waterstressed areas.”41 They also note that “80 percent of diseases in the 

developing world are water-related. Many are due to poor management of human excreta. About 2.6 billion people lack adequate sanitation.”42 MFCs would address the water and sanitation challenges 

forecast by the UN Millennium Project.

Second, the Nobel Prize–winning Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change predicts that by 2020 as many as 250 million Africans could experience water stress.43 Third, Air Force planners looking at 2025 scenarios also expect future water shortages. The King 

Khan scenario predicts that “clean drinking water [will be] scarce and 

competition over water rights [will] become a source of conflict in 

Africa and Southwest Asia.”44 Finally, FG07 also reflects this same 

natural resource shortage. Future water shortages consistently appear 

in strategic planning scenarios.

Individual futurists also agree about the scarcity of future water. 

Peter von Stackelberg highlights the need for future water technology 

by predicting that “water is becoming increasingly scarce. . . . By 

2025, about 3.4 billion people will live in regions that are defined by 

the UN as water-scarce.”45 The Futurist May 2008 magazine cover 

claims that “global demand for water has tripled in the past half century.” The article’s author expects this trend to continue and projects 

that since 70 percent of water consumption is for agriculture, water 

shortages will also lead to food shortages.46 Professional futurists 

expect to see a water crisis by 2030.

Even popular media, which are generally not future focused, are 

reporting on the likelihood of water scarcity in 2030. The government estimates that, beginning in 2009, the demand for water will 

outstrip supply in La Paz-El Alto, Peru.47 Even more surprising, the 
172 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

predicted water shortage in 2030 is not limited to places outside of 

the United States. Lake Meade, the main water source for Phoenix 

and Las Vegas, “has a 50 percent chance of becoming unusable by 

2021.”48 Both cities host military bases threatened by the absence of 

water. The threat of a water shortage is on the horizon, not just in the 

Middle East but also in the Western Hemisphere.

Natural resources will be scarce in 2030, and networked infrastructure will carry unnecessary risks. Scenario planners, futurists, 

and popular media have issued the warnings—water and energy 

shortages will characterize the world, including the United States, in 

2030. Sustainable technologies that minimize natural resource losses 

while producing beneficial by-products will be necessary to project 

air, space, and cyberspace power, regardless of the most likely threat.

Relevancy beyond the Department of Defense

While this research focuses on the applicability of MFCs to national 

security through the military IOP, MFCs also enable the diplomatic 

and economic IOPs. Understanding the larger impact of this technology 

allows the USAF to identify R&D partners. This study also paints a 

picture of how important MFCs could become for 2030. The figure in 

appendix G shows application and benefit areas.

Understanding Microbial Fuel Cell Technology

With the relevancy of the research established, this section explains 

MFC technology. First, the research explores the self-contained 

facilities concept and how MFCs enable it. Next, an overview of MFC 

components and their interaction provides a foundation for further 

analysis. Additionally, a short section addresses what MFCs are not. 

Finally, with technical details in hand, the last section summarizes 

the technology’s maturity.

Self-Contained Facilities Concept

The genesis of this research is the self-contained facilities concept. 

A self-contained facility moves services and connections from outside infrastructure into the footprint of the building. Examples of infrastructure that facilities connect to include electricity, natural gas, 

water, wastewater, solid sanitary waste disposal, and roads. Ideally, 

self-contained facilities would also include self-maintenance, or at 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 173

least self-monitoring, capabilities such as remotely adjustable climate 

controls, self-repairing wall and roof materials, and drain clearing 

capabilities. Furthermore, self-contained facilities should be light, 

reconfigurable, reusable, and maneuverable cities that do not require 

heavy equipment such as bulldozers and well-drilling rigs to build or 

sustain. These facilities leave no footprint when moved.

Since the topic of self-contained facilities is broad, this research 

focuses on the one technology that offers the most capability toward 

self-contained facilities—MFCs. MFCs are the most promising technology to explore for the self-contained facilities concept because 

they fold in several infrastructure and LOC dependencies—power, 

water, wastewater treatment, and waste disposal. For 2030’s threats, 

self-contained facilities enabled by MFCs can reduce infrastructure 

and LOC vulnerabilities for facilities at home and abroad.

Microbial Fuel Cell Technology Overview

An overview of MFC technology is the starting point for exploring 

what MFCs can provide and the best way to move toward that goal. A 

brief study of figure 7.1 offers the best way to gain a basic understanding of MFC technology. Following the pictorial overview is a summary of how MFCs work as well as a description of the salient technology components for a more in-depth understanding of MFCs.

Figure 7.1. Microbial fuel cell technology overview
174 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

One type of biological fuel cell, the MFC, uses living microbes as a 

catalyst for an electrochemical reaction that can convert waste to power 

and water.49 Microbes metabolize waste products in a process that frees 

electrons. This idea is not new. Wastewater treatment plants use microbes to degrade organic matter. The new twist is capturing released 

electrons as power. “Normally the electrons power . . . the bacterial 

cells. However, by depriving the bacteria of oxygen . . . the electrons can 

be wrested . . . and used to power a circuit.”50 Wastewater is cleaned, as 

it is in wastewater treatment plants today, and the by-products of the 

reaction are clean water and power.51 With this understanding, the 

stage is set to discuss the primary components.

Fuel. Fuel is the substrate in which the microbes act. Examples of fuels 

for MFCs include wastewater such as gray water, black water, and storm 

water; kitchen scraps; industrial waste streams; agricultural waste 

streams; sugars such as glucose, fructose, lactose, and mamose; algae; or 

any other type of carbon-rich waste product such as wood, paper, or 

plastic.52 The ideal mixture of the substrate is a key investigation area.53

Electrodes. Microbial fuel cells have an anode and a cathode. Flow 

of electrons between these two electrodes through an external resistance yields power. Electrode materials dictate how well electron transport can occur.54 Electrode surface area also governs waste processing 

speed and power output density.55

Catalysts. Catalysts start the electrochemical reaction. They are 

necessary at both electrodes. A traditional fuel cell uses platinum as 

the catalyst, but in MFCs, “bacteria on the anode . . . can act as the 

catalyst instead.”56 The catalyst governs the reaction speed at both 

electrodes and therefore becomes a variable that dictates the speed of 

power and clean water production.57 A robust mixture of microbes, 

such as Geobacter and Shewanella, in the anode chamber catalyzes 

the reaction and allows for fuel flexibility.58 Several microbiologists 

are studying the genetic engineering involved with optimizing microbes 

for MFCs.59

Membrane. A membrane separates the two electrodes and allows 

protons to pass from the anode to the cathode. It also allows anions 

to pass from the cathode to the anode. This proton exchange creates 

a potential across the two electrodes that pulls electrons from the anode 

to the cathode, thus generating electricity. The protons then combine 

with the oxygen at the cathode to produce water. Proper design of the 

membrane is important because this exchange controls the potential 

available across the electrodes (which equates to power) and the rate at 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 175

which the reactions can occur at both electrodes.60 Membranes are a current research topic, and recent publications suggest that Nafion membranes should be replaced with a nanoporous filter or “fast proton conducting ceramic membranes” to optimize power output and reliability.61

Electron Transport. Mediators help move electrons in the anodic 

chamber to the electrode so that they may be captured to produce electricity. Many MFC publications report supplementing the solution 

around the anode with mediators that are toxic chemicals, such as 

methylene blue.62 Microbes, however, synthesize and excrete mediators 

as they “breathe.”63 This natural method of transporting electrons to the 

anode, often referred to as a mediatorless MFC, allows electrons to be 

passed to the anode via direct contact between the microbe and the 

electrode surface. Two examples of mediatorless electron transfer appear in the MFC literature—nanowires and biofilms. Nanowires are 

hairlike appendages that bacteria use to move electrons to the electrode 

surface.64 Biofilms enable electron transport by orienting cell surfaces 

so that the electron-transporting proteins are a certain distance from 

the electrode, allowing electron hopping.65 Biofilms coat the anode and 

grow on a carbon-based fiber.66

What Microbial Fuel Cells Are Not

With these main components defined, it is now possible to refine 

the definition of MFCs by understanding what their technology is 

not. Since many competing and complementary alternative energy 

projects are in the spotlight, it is important to understand what differentiates these technologies. Some technologies that should not be 

confused with MFCs are biofuels and biomass, hydrogen fuel cells,

protein- or enzyme-based fuel cells, solar power, wind power, and 

desalination plants. A brief explanation of these technologies is included in appendix I. Future MFC applications will likely be coupled 

with some of these complementary energy and water technologies to 

build fully self-contained facilities.

Microbial electrolysis cells (MEC), on the other hand, are a type of 

MFC, but they are not the focus of this research. MECs use an additional small voltage input (which could be provided by another MFC) 

to drive hydrogen production at the cathode. This hydrogen then 

drives a traditional fuel cell. MECs are more complex than the basic 

MFC idea explored here. Dr. Bruce Logan’s group at Pennsylvania 

State University is researching this conceptualization.67
176 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

Technology Maturity

With a basic understanding of the concept of MFCs, how mature 

is the technology? Using MFCs on a large scale to dispose of wastewater, to clean water, and to generate electricity is a futuristic idea. 

Dr. Glenn Johnson, an MFC expert at the Air Force Research Laboratory, assessed MFC technology readiness level (TRL) as “two,” which 

means that the basic concept or idea has just been formed.68 In Johnson’s 

assessment, in 10 years leaders will talk about MFCs as frequently as 

they discuss ethanol today.69 Derek Lovley, an MFC researcher at the 

University of Massachusetts–Amherst, puts it this way: “One way to 

think of this technology is that it is currently at the state of development that solar power was 20 to 30 years ago—the principle has been 

shown, but there is a lot of work to do before this is widely used.”70

MFC technology is still in its formative stages—the perfect time for 

the USAF to envision future uses for this emerging technology and 

shape the research to meet that vision.

Microbial Fuel Cell Relevance Tree: A Systems 

Analysis Framework

With a basic understanding of MFC relevancy and technology, 

analysis is now appropriate. MFCs could make a significant contribution toward self-contained facilities, but how could they contribute 

and what must be addressed to achieve it? To answer these questions, 

this research used a relevance-tree systems analysis. The relevance 

tree was first defined and then analyzed at key nodes. From this analysis, 

some capabilities and limitations emerged. Finally, a brief cost analysis 

showed the practical feasibility of implementing MFCs.

Defining the Microbial Fuel Cell Relevance Tree

A relevance tree breaks the problem into successively smaller parts 

so that individual issues can be identified and addressed. A graphical 

representation of this research is presented in appendix G and shows 

what it will take to move MFC technology from concept to capability.

Key-Node Analysis

The MFC relevance tree is a detailed, systematic sketch that captures 

the salient concerns surrounding MFC R&D and implementation. 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 177

Because the tree has over 100 branches, this research cannot detail 

concerns at each node. The key-node analysis, therefore, seeks to 

highlight the most important nodes that leaders must address to 

advance MFC technology. This analysis looks at four tree branches: 

technological, social, industrial, and political challenges.

Key Technological Nodes. The first of these branches has three 

main categories: basic science, engineering, and military suitability. 

This analysis highlights the biggest challenges in each of these areas.

Basic science challenges exist for all the major MFC components: 

fuels, electrodes, catalysts, membranes, and electron transport. Fuel 

mixtures and sources must be determined.71 Electrode size, shape, 

and materials must be optimized.72 Catalytic microbes must be better 

understood to determine power output limits and optimal mixtures 

for fuel flexibility.73 Nanotechnology breakthroughs will enable highintegrity membranes that transport protons quickly without fouling.74 For electron transport, hairlike structures on the microbe surface that form nanowires must be investigated.75 Finally, microbiologists 

must advance biofilms to learn the mixtures, the inoculation methods, 

and the best materials to grow microbial catalysts.76

Beyond these challenges, engineering issues must be identified 

early and addressed in parallel with the basic science. Configuration 

issues such as modularity and stacking, energy storage, and coupling 

with other power- and water-generation equipment must be considered 

now.77 Manufacture will also bring challenges. Scaling laboratory 

experiments up to full-size systems capable of producing hundreds 

of thousands of watts of power and thousands of gallons of water will 

likely be problematic.78 Mass manufacturing nanomembranes will 

also chart new territory. Of course, manufacturing puzzles are solvable if the physics are possible, but they may drive costs, size, or 

weight of the final product.

The final technological branch is military suitability. Like any biological system, microbes are fragile. On the positive side, they can 

thrive in a broad range of environments and can adapt to any niche 

over time.79 They exist in permanently frozen lakes (though water 

flow stops in frozen conditions) and in high-temperature sea vents.80

On the negative side, living organisms may not have a shelf life and 

may require lead time to form productive populations.81 If addressed 

early in R&D, a procedure could be developed for “seed” generation. 

For example, inoculums could be introduced and could begin colonizing the system en route to an expeditionary location. Simple work-
178 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

arounds exist for the first few hours or days until the systems are fully 

operational and stable. For more details about the technological challenges, see appendix H.

Key Social Nodes. The “social” aspect is the second branch that 

leaders must consider to advance the MFC concept. The three key 

social nodes are operational transparency, resistance to change, and cost.

The first key social node is operational transparency. In facilities, 

technologies that do not require occupants to change their lifestyle or 

business model will be most successful, so MFCs designed to be compatible with today’s facilities are more likely to see widespread adoption.82 For example, it would be easier to design technologies that 

capture household organic waste than it would be to train a whole 

society to feed sorted kitchen scraps into a basement MFC. Others 

might resist the change if they knew their toilet water was cleaned 

and recycled to their kitchen sink. Of course that is what happens 

today, but it is at a distant treatment plant rather than in the crawl 

space at home.

Operational transparency is related to the second key node—social 

willingness to change. In The End of Oil, Paul Roberts asserts that the 

success in hybrid vehicles sales might be an indicator of social readiness to accept revolutionary technologies that decrease dependence 

on traditional energy sources.83 But social trends related to automobiles 

do not translate into a desire for change in American homes and 

businesses. Among other reasons, Americans change vehicles more 

frequently than homes.84

Second, modifying facilities built to last 100 years or more is different from changing features and infrastructure for vehicles that are 

replaced at least an order of magnitude more frequently. Roberts’s 

book captures this idea: “If the auto industry is ripe for an efficiency 

revolution, it’s not clear whether that revolution can spread to other 

sectors . . . . Industrial nations currently waste an extraordinary 

amount of energy through poorly designed homes, office buildings, 

and factories—all of which could be redesigned for dramatic energy 

savings. Yet the daunting and hugely expensive task of reengineering 

such large pieces of infrastructure will require more than the kind of 

snappy ad campaign that has worked for hybrid cars.”85

Beyond operational transparency and social willingness to change, 

MFCs will not see widespread adoption unless the advantages outweigh the costs. Even if two concepts provide the same service for the 

same cost, human habit will choose the old over the new. Slow adop-
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 179

tion of photovoltaics is an example of consumers deciding that advantages do not yet outweigh costs.86 Yet a deliberate or subconscious 

cost-benefit analysis is influenced by politics. For instance, government regulations implementing child-restraint seats and fire alarms 

changed the cost-benefit analysis because breaking the law is now a 

cost.87 The same could become true for MFCs if policies on security, 

energy, or water change.

While social inertia is daunting, change is always possible. This 

change might even be easier in the civilian sector than within government bureaucracy. The question is whether incentives are needed to 

change the cost-benefit equation to bring the idea to reality in the 

desired time frame.

Key Industrial Nodes. The third branch necessary to advancing 

the MFC concept is industry. Many industrial factors could affect 

MFC adoption and widespread use. This analysis considers two main 

industries: construction and utility. The construction industry, which 

accounts for 20 percent of the American economy, does not embrace 

innovation.88 The United States Green Building Council (USGBC) 

states that “the building industry is characterized by relatively slow 

rates of innovation due to its size, diversity, fragmentation, and low 

investments in research.”89 In Megamistakes, technological change 

expert Steven Schnaars suggests that a precedent for lack of innovation may mean “leaders are napping.”90 This reflects lack of government interest, investment, incentive, and century-long facility life 

spans.91 The utility industry may show similar resistance to adopting 

new sustainable technologies. Infrastructure such as high-voltage 

transmission lines, buried power lines, waterlines, and sewage pipes 

are costly investments that utility companies will not abandon 

quickly. However, the right incentives could allow innovative companies and municipalities to gracefully bridge a transition that could 

last as long as half a century. With the right leaders, R&D investment, 

and incentives, new technologies will be adopted.

Key Political Nodes. The final branch of the relevance tree to be 

analyzed is the political branch. Government investment, regulations, standards, taxes, and subsidies could all impact MFC success 

either positively or negatively. In fact, politicians wield the most 

power in shaping social and industrial demand for this capability. 

They even hold power over technology development since most academic R&D is funded through the government. If USAF leaders want 
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MFCs for the future, the political machine must be a primary point of 

engagement. Specific recommendations follow in the conclusion.

Microbial Fuel Cell Key Capabilities and Challenges

The application relevance tree and the key node analysis of the 

MFC relevance tree provide the framework to systematically investigate 

MFCs. Throughout this research, capabilities and challenges of MFCs 

have emerged. Some key MFC capabilities and challenges from a 

USAF perspective are shown in appendix J.

Basic Cost Analysis

MFC capabilities and limitations are clear, but will it cost too much 

to replace, build, operate, and maintain MFC facilities? No! Appendix 

K provides some estimates for a 1,100-person base. This section investigates how operational cost savings would quickly pay for capital 

investments, briefly explores maintenance and operations requirements, and, finally, highlights a few benefits that are difficult to translate into dollars.

Operations costs will quickly pay for capital investments. According to this research’s calculations, organic waste has the potential to 

provide up to 25 percent of the power at an expeditionary base. While 

it is still uncertain how much of this potential energy MFCs could 

capture (alone or in combination with other technologies), scientists 

are optimistic that the technology would be much more efficient than 

combustion engines that peak at about 50 percent efficiency.92 If 

MFCs and complementary technologies could capture 90 percent of 

the potential energy available (energy efficiencies have already been 

recorded at 65 percent and electron capture efficiencies at 96 percent), 

they could replace one of the four MEP-12 generators during a 

1,100-person deployment.93 This would save $69,000 per day in fuel 

and fuel delivery costs at a single 1,100-person location (see appendix 

K for details). Translated into major theater operations, during a 

150,000-person deployment, MFCs could save as much as $50 million each day. The capital costs of an MFC (even if double the cost of 

today’s generators) would quickly be recouped because of the reduced 

fuel requirements.

As a first step, if only the shower and latrine units became selfcontained (power for lights, hot water, and water pump) using their 

own black water and gray water, the USAF would still save $2,500 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 181

per day at a single 1,100-person base. On top of these fuel cost benefits, the USAF would be able to capture and recycle 15,000 gallons of water each day at a 1,100-person installation. Even if MFCs 

cannot turn 90 percent of the potential energy of organic waste 

into energy, and even if significant R&D investments and capital 

costs are required, it is clear that the USAF would benefit from 

reduced costs and increased capabilities.

Maintenance would be less as well. Microbial fuel cells do not 

have moving parts like gas-fired generators. Maintenance requirements would be similar to today’s sewage treatment plants. Primary 

maintenance tasks include filter cleaning and periodic electrode replacement. Pumping sewage from expeditionary latrines and transporting it to the sewage treatment location could be eliminated, 

cutting maintenance hours, reducing truck traffic and inspections 

at base entries, and improving quality of life for both residents and 

craftsmen. Furthermore, personnel would not have to maintain fuel 

levels in storage bladders or bury as much infrastructure. Overall, 

maintenance requirements would be similar to or less than existing 

systems.

Beyond the cost savings, decision makers must also account for 

other benefits not reflected in this basic cost estimate. Because of 

the reduced airlift requirements for fuel and water, some mobility 

aircraft could be freed for other missions. Additionally, ground 

LOCs would become less burdened, minimizing improvised-explosive-device risk to personnel, equipment, and supplies. Similar 

benefits in reduced shipping requirements would ease the demand 

on sea LOC throughput as well. Although reduced LOC demand 

from a risk perspective is not quantitatively calculated here, the potential to save lives and assets by reducing fuel and water demands 

during combat has merit.

This systems analysis quantified MFC capability and identified 

major obstacles in bringing MFC technology online. After building 

a relevance tree as an analysis framework, key technological, social, 

industrial, and political nodes emerged. Understanding these 

key factors resulted in conclusions about capabilities and limitations. 

After quantifying potential capabilities and limitations, a basic cost 

analysis revealed that MFCs could yield savings of up to $50 million 

per day in operating costs for a major theater deployment.
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Conclusions

This research began by asking if the USAF should invest in MFCs. 

To answer this question, this research explored “who cares,” explained 

the technical aspects of MFCs, and used relevance tree methodology 

to analyze capabilities, limitations, obstacles, and costs. With this 

analysis, the conclusion emerges: yes, the USAF should invest in 

MFC R&D, but investment alone is insufficient. This section explains 

this conclusion by discussing MFCs for self-contained facilities, strategy 

suggestions, and future research.

Microbial Fuel Cells—The Grail for Green, Self-Contained 

Facilities?

MFCs hold great promise to meet future waste disposal, water, and 

power requirements with significant cost savings, but they are a component required for success—not a panacea for all self-contained facility 

needs. MFCs are primarily a wastewater treatment capability and will 

likely meet 100 percent of that requirement. The fundamental capability that distinguishes MFCs from other sustainable facilities technologies is their ability to process sewage, kitchen scraps, and storm 

water for sanitary waste disposal and to restore water to potable quality. 

It is a bonus that MFCs also provide potable water and power as 

chemical reaction by-products.

While MFCs are likely to meet 100 percent of the waste disposal 

requirements, expecting MFCs to meet 100 percent of facility power 

and water requirements is unrealistic.94 For power and water, MFCs 

must be coupled with demand reduction through both technology 

and conservation efforts. Roberts predicts that “no matter what energy 

technologies we end up using twenty or thirty years from now, we 

still won’t have enough energy for everyone if we haven’t found ways 

to use much less of it. Efficiency remains our greatest hope.”95 Even 

with increased efficiencies, MFC power densities will not meet forecasted power demand alone. MFCs may meet only 25 percent of full 

power requirements, so MFC technology should be coupled with 

other sustainable power sources such as hydrogen fuel cells, solar 

power, wind, and thermal technologies.96 These are promising energy 

sources with capability gaps that MFCs could fill (e.g., to produce 

hydrogen at night, on cloudy days, on low-wind days, or in places 

where thermal technologies are not viable).
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 183

For water supplies, MFCs can capture and recycle water, but the 

by-products of the chemical reaction will not produce large quantities 

of water itself. The main water benefit of MFCs is the ability to recapture 

the 70 percent of water used that now moves into the sewage treatment process and evaporates (in an expeditionary setting).97 The water 

cleansing and reaction by-product capabilities must be augmented by 

tapping industrial waste streams or through water collection technologies such as rainwater and dew harvesting.98

MFCs are not a silver bullet, but they will fill gaps in existing sustainable technologies, and they provide power, water, and waste treatment while enabling self-contained facilities.

Strategy Recommendations and Future Research

Though MFCs cannot meet 100 percent of power and water requirements, they can augment production and dispose of all wastes 

while filling gaps in other power and water technologies. In light of 

the relevance-tree analysis, this section recommends strategy and future 

research to address technological, social, industrial, political, and 

business case considerations.

Technological Considerations. First, leaders must decide to invest 

in facility research and development, including MFCs. The USGBC 

highlights that “the design, construction, and operation of buildings 

account for 20 percent of US economic activity and more than 40 

percent of energy used, . . . yet far less than 1 percent of the federal 

research budget is allocated to buildings.”99

Next, the USAF must develop a road map for MFC technology to 

vector the R&D funds. The road map should include basic science 

milestones, but it should also outline envisioned systems, manufacturing techniques, and schemes for components working together up 

to the level of complete self-contained facilities. For example, if a target 

is expeditionary self-contained facilities, all component technologies 

such as MFCs, solar power, rainwater collection, and self-monitoring/

self-maintaining systems must be identified, investigated, integrated, 

and set as deliverables. Deliverable interim milestones, such as an expeditionary self-contained shower and latrine facility by 2015, must 

be incorporated into the plan as well. Often systems engineering and 

manufacturing challenges are as difficult as basic science. Early conceptualization could identify the toughest obstacles that could be 

addressed in parallel with the basic science development to optimize 
184 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

research time and dollars. Appendix H is a starting point for science, 

systems integration, manufacturing, and military suitability challenges that should be addressed in the road map.

In addition to the road map, the technology investment strategy 

should be collaborative. Collaboration must first begin with the pursuit of academic partners by the USAF and the DOD, but it should 

ultimately become a cross-agency plan since this technology has the 

potential to contribute to areas of interest beyond the DOD. The 

DOD has initiated several notable energy projects, but no unified, 

concerted effort exists yet across the services.100

The technology strategy and future research recommendations are 

(1) USAF R&D investment in MFC technologies, (2) development of 

a road map to spend those investment dollars, and (3) improvement 

of a collaborative technology approach.

Social Considerations. The social barriers to widespread use of 

MFCs are perhaps the most vexing challenges from the perspective of 

a USAF engineer.101 Yet the impediments must be addressed because 

“enabling the rapid adaptation of new energy technologies to civilian 

use is required for the Nation’s long-term physical and economic 

security.”102 Scientists and engineers can solve the technology problem, 

but if society does not adopt the technology, costs will increase, 

homeland security benefits will not be realized, and synergies between 

expeditionary and permanent facilities will be lost. Social obstacles 

must be the subject of further investigation. The USAF must hire outside expertise (like psychologists, consumer and marketing experts, 

or futurists) or rely on collaborative partners like the DOE to gauge 

the magnitude of social challenges that might occur, possible solutions, and their impact on national security goals.

Industrial Considerations. This research identified many industrial challenges in bringing MFCs to fruition; however, with a deliberate 

plan, these obstacles are surmountable. Incentives are powerful 

change agents, and specific recommendations should be the focus of 

future research. A good starting point for this research might be lessons learned from ethanol infrastructure.103

Political Considerations. First, policy makers must deliberately 

decide if a free market can effectively shape the future energy and 

water economy or if government intervention is necessary to protect 

the economy and ultimately national security. In The End of Oil, Roberts 

argues that a free-market economy could bring about a new energy 

economy if energy prices gradually increase, but he worries that 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 185

world events could lead to catastrophic spikes in oil prices.104 He says 

that “improving efficiency . . . must begin in the political sphere with 

a new consensus by policy makers that the energy system must 

change in fundamental ways—and, above all, real leadership to ensure 

that such change actually happens.”105 One of the primary functions 

of government is to provide collective security for the nation. Risks in 

today’s energy volatility suggest that government intervention may 

be necessary. Ultimately, policy makers must decide if, when, and 

how to intervene, but the important thing is that they make an intentional decision to intervene or not intervene, rather than simply falling back to a default position resulting from indecision.

Second, policies must not dissuade military decision makers from 

doing the right thing when it comes to energy and water. Wing commanders, for example, see new technologies as risks without rewards 

since operational savings are not realized at the installation level. 

Furthermore, incentives such as tax credits or renewable energy 

credits penalize the government since no benefits can be gained. 

Scott Buchanan, in his article “Energy and Force Transformation,” 

says that “the Services, combatant commanders, research laboratories, and other major DOD organizations should be allowed to keep 

a portion of the savings from innovative initiatives in material, procedures, and doctrine that significantly enhance energy efficiency.”106

The USAF should engage its attorneys and policy makers to find creative 

incentives that reward decision makers for taking sensible risks to 

implement microbial fuel cell technologies.

Beyond these two primary political recommendations, future research should investigate policies that could jeopardize or enhance 

bringing MFCs to fruition. Specific areas that should be addressed 

are investment policies and levels, incentives, regulations, standards, 

taxes, and subsidies. This future research should specifically consider 

how decisions in these areas directly and indirectly affect the social, 

industrial, technological, and government realms.

Business Case. No investment strategy or policy decision is complete without a supporting business case. This research included only 

a cursory cost analysis focusing on an 1,100-person expeditionary 

base, which clearly showed the advantages of MFCs for remote and 

expeditionary facilities. Future research should expand this business 

case, especially for permanent facilities that would require more extensive investments to update building systems to accommodate 
186 │ WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER

MFC technologies and would have less organic waste (as a percentage 

of power required) on hand from which to generate power.

Summary

National security planners cannot know the exact threats for 2030, 

but the environment could be characterized by conventional, major 

theater threats; terrorist threats; small wars, insurgencies, and humanitarian disasters; or water and energy resource shortages. Which of 

these threats dominate the 2030 environment is irrelevant; they all 

require the capabilities that MFCs provide—distributed, secure, and 

sustainable power, water, and waste/wastewater treatment. MFCs are 

a guaranteed investment for the future. They are a flexible technology 

capable of enabling effects across the entire range of military operations, and, as a bonus, they will also quickly pay for themselves.

The USAF should invest in MFC research because this technology 

allows development of self-contained facilities decoupled from the 

infrastructure network, a key capability for national security in the 

2030 environment. The USAF must develop facility energy, water, 

and wastewater capabilities to ensure future combat effectiveness of 

air, space, and cyberspace forces that rely heavily upon facilities. 

Leaders cannot assume that these enablers will be available in the 

future; they must plan for them. However, an MFC investment strategy 

must include more than R&D funds. The USAF must pursue a collaborative approach that addresses not only the technological barriers 

at the scientific and systems-integration level but also the key social, 

industrial, and political hurdles as well. Our national security depends 

on it.

Notes

1. This research methodology is described in detail in Futures Group International, “Relevance Tree and Morphological Analysis.”

2. Schnaars, Megamistakes, and Ascher, Forecasting.

3. “Biofuels May Threaten Environment”; Harrabin, “EU Rethinks Biofuels 

Guidelines”; Biello, “Biofuels Are Bad for Feeding People”; and Rosenthal, “Biofuels 

Deemed a Greenhouse Threat.”

4. Joint Publication (JP) 1-02, Department of Defense Dictionary of Military and 

Associated Terms, defines facility as “a real property entity consisting of one or more 

of the following: a building, a structure, a utility system, pavement, and underlying 

land.” Throughout the rest of this paper, however, facility will refer to just the building 
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 187

or structure while infrastructure will refer to the utility systems and pavement. The 

2007 Air Force Handbook explains that the “AN/USQ-163 Falconer Air and Space 

Operations Center Weapon System (AOC-WS) is the senior element of the Theater 

Air Control System. The joint force air component commander /combined forces air 

component commander uses the system for planning, executing, and assessing 

theater-wide air and space operations. The AOC-WS . . . disseminates tasking orders, 

executes day-to-day peacetime and combat air and space operations, and provides 

rapid reaction to immediate situations by exercising positive control of friendly 

forces.” The AOC-WS occupies approximately 70,000 square feet of space where 

1,000 to 2,000 people work. US Air Force, Air Force Handbook 2007, 64–65.

5. DuBois, Defense Installations Strategic Plan, 8.

6. The Whole Building Design Guide Sustainable Committee explains in “Optimize Energy Use” that “increased security of energy supply and distribution systems 

have become an important component of national security after the 9/11 terrorist 

attacks. Today, power generation is still mostly handled by massive centralized 

plants, which are inevitable targets, and electricity moves on vulnerable lines.” The 

vulnerability of infrastructure to attack in the cyber realm was confirmed by the 

Department of Homeland Defense and is reported in Meserve, “Sources.”

7. “Logistics Fuel Reformer/Processor.”

8. “Agility is the ability to rapidly deploy, employ, sustain and redeploy capabilities 

in geographically separated and environmentally diverse regions.” Myers, National 

Military Strategy, 6.

9. Facilities will increase in importance as force-projection platforms for space, 

cyberspace, remotely piloted vehicles, and long-range bombers operate from facilities 

that are not near the battlefield. Myers, National Military Strategy, 8; and Bush, 

National Strategy for Combating Terrorism, 13.

10. The Army has already developed fuel cells (but not MFCs) for silent, lowheat signature generators. Holcomb et al., “Energy Savings for Silent CampTM Hybrid 

Technologies,” 134–37. Other examples of the low-heat-signature capability of fuel 

cells abound in the literature, including Lambert, “Fuel Cells.”

11. Whole Building Design Guide Sustainable Committee, “Optimize Energy Use.”

12. Amidon, “A ‘Manhattan Project’ for Energy,” 76.

13. Bush, Executive Order 13423, Strengthening Federal Environmental, Energy, 

and Transportation Management.

14. “The Lighting Efficiency Mandate will phase out the use of incandescent light 

bulbs by 2014, and improve lighting efficiency by more than 70 percent by 2020. . . . The 

Federal Government Operations Mandate will reduce the energy consumption of Federal 

Government facilities 30 percent by 2015. Additionally, all new Federal buildings will 

be carbon-neutral by 2030.” See “Fact Sheet: Increasing Our Energy Security.”

15. Whole Building Design Guide Sustainable Committee, “Optimize Energy Use.”

16. US Air Force, “U.S. Air Force Renewable Energy Program,” 3.

17. Defense Science Board Task Force, More Capable Warfighting, 10.

18. Glenn, Worldwide Emerging Environmental Issues, 7.

19. For evidence that resources are a source of conflict, see “The Dark Side of 

Natural Resources”; Abbott, Rogers, and Sloboda, Beyond Terror, chap. 3; Klare, Resource 

Wars; and Renner, Anatomy of Resource Wars.

20. Morrison and Conway, Kiss, Bow or Shake Hands, 121.
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21. Yoffe, “Basins at Risk,” 71.

22. Carl Builder asserts that the altar of worship for the USAF is technology and that 

the enchantment with technological marvels, especially flying machines, characterizes 

USAF culture. Builder, Masks of War, 19.

23. Rumsfeld, Quadrennial Defense Review Report; and National Defense Strategy, 

2–3. This array of four challenges—traditional, irregular, catastrophic, and disruptive—

originally appeared in this document.

24. The six plan phases are shape, deter, seize the initiative, dominate, stabilize, 

and enable civil authority. JP 3-0, Joint Operations, iv-26.

25. DOD Directive 3000.05, Military Support, 19.

26. Air Force Doctrine Document 2-3, Irregular Warfare, 42–43.

27. Elleman, Waves of Hope, v.

28. Packer, “Letter from Baghdad”; and Meserve, “Sources.”

29. Bush, National Security Strategy, 25–27, 31–34.

30. Logan, “Energy Diversity Brings Stability,” 5161. Logan said that “modern 

wastewater treatments have accomplished more to protect human health and our 

environment than perhaps any single technology.”

31. For a thorough analysis of environmental threats to national security and a 

sustainable security strategy, see Ackerman, “Climate Change,” 56–96.

32. In a white paper, Gen T. Michael Moseley emphasizes that future fights will not 

be the same as today’s fights and that the USAF must look ahead to make proper assumptions about the future to avoid unnecessary risk. Moseley, Nation’s Guardians, 9.

33. Schnaars, Megamistakes, 63.

34. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2007, 61.

35. See, for instance, National Energy Policy Group, National Energy Policy.

36. Amidon, briefing, subject: “Needed Now,” slide 44.

37. Ibid.

38. Many power systems “have become overburdened in recent years, illustrated 

by the California energy brownouts in 2001.” US Green Building Council, Building 

Momentum, 10.

39. Martino, “Technological Forecasting,” 14.

40. Glenn and Gordon, 2007 State of the Future, 10.

41. Ibid., 14.

42. Ibid.

43. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007, 11.

44. Engelbrecht et al., Alternate Futures for 2025, 76.

45. Water technology is one of 12 technologies highlighted by von Stackelberg as 

essential to the future in “Future of Universal Water.”

46. Brown, “Draining Our Future,” 16–22.

47. “Loss of Andes Glaciers Threatens Water Supply.”

48. Barnett and Pierce, “When Will Lake Mead Go Dry?” and Felicity Barringer, 

“Lake Mead Could Be within a Few Years of Going Dry, Study Finds,” New York 

Times, 13 February 2008. http://www.nytimes.com/.

49. The other type of biological fuel cell is an enzyme or protein fuel cell. These 

are explained in appendix I.

50. Biever, “Plugging into the Power of Sewage.”
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 189

51. Wastewater treatment efficiency will be less than current wastewater treatment plants because energy that would normally allow the microbes to metabolize 

more of the waste is being captured to produce electricity. Logan et al., “Microbial 

Fuel Cells,” 5189.

52. Rodrigo et al., “Production of Electricity,” 198–204; “Project to Turn Beer 

Wastewater into Power,” Fuel Cells Bulletin 2007, no. 7 (2007): 11; Yokoyama et al., 

“Treatment of Cow-Waste Slurry,” 634–38; Catal et al., “Electricity Production from 

Twelve Monosaccharides,” 196; Rabaey et al., “Microbial Fuel Cell Capable of Converting Glucose,” 2915–21; and Hatcher, “New Sources of Biomass Feed Stocks.”

53. The maximum power density from MFC fuel found to date is one kilowatt of 

power per cubic meter of waste. Fan, Hu, and Liu, “Enhanced Coulombic Efficiency,” 348.

54. Logan et al., “Graphite Fiber Brush Anodes,” 3341.

55. Top power output based on electrode surface area is 5.8 watts per square 

meter. Rosenbaum et al., “Interfacing Electrocatalysis and Biocatalysis,” 6810–13.

56. Angenent, “Microbial Fuel Cells Turn on the Juice.”

57. Microbes are typically not used at the cathode, but the cathodic catalyst is 

still an important variable in power and water output. See Cheng, Liu, and Logan, 

“Increased Performance of Single-Chamber Microbial Fuel Cells,” 364–69; and You 

et al., “A Microbial Fuel Cell Using Permanganate,” 2721–34.

58. Lovley, “Bug Juice,” 501–2.

59. Biffinger et al., “Biofilm Enhanced Miniature Microbial Fuel Cell”; and Logan 

and Regan, “Electricity-Producing Bacterial Communities,” 517.

60. Proton exchange is governed by the surface area of the anode and the membrane. 

Oh and Logan, “Proton Exchange Membrane,” 162.

61. Biffinger et al., “Diversifying Biological Fuel Cell Designs,” 1672–79; and Tsui 

and Wiesner, “Fast Proton Conducting Ceramic Membranes,” 79–93.

62. Walker and Walker, Biological Fuel Cell, 10.

63. Many microbes synthesize and excrete soluble redox-active molecules to enable 

anaerobic respiration. Stams et al., “Exocellular Electron Transfer,” 371.

64. Gorby et al., “Electrically Conductive Bacterial Nanowires,” 11358–63; and 

Reguera et al., “Extracellular Electron Transfer,” 1098–101.

65. Biffinger et al., “Biofilm Enhanced Miniature Microbial Fuel Cell.”

66. Angenent, “Microbial Fuel Cells Turn on the Juice.”

67. For a nontechnical explanation of this concept, see Logan, “Microbial Electrolysis Cell Research.” For a recent scientific publication on this configuration, see 

Cheng and Logan, “Sustainable and Efficient Biohydrogen Production.”

68. TRL is a measure of the maturity of an emerging or desired technology. See 

Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Science and Technology, Technology Readiness 

Assessment (TRA) Deskbook, ES-1, III-1–III-3; and Johnson, “Microbial Fuel Cell for 

Remote Power Generation,” 5. The TRA Deskbook also observes that in TRL 2 “invention begins. Once basic principles are observed, practical applications can be invented. Applications are speculative, and there may be no proof or detailed analysis 

to support the assumptions. Examples are limited to analytic studies.” 3–14.

69. Glenn R. Johnson and Robert Diltz, discussion with the author during visit 

to the Air Force Research Laboratory, Tyndall AFB, FL, 6 February 2008.

70. Biever, “Plugging into the Power of Sewage.”
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71. For a summary of different fuel sources matched with different microbes, see 

Kim, Chang, and Gadd, “Challenges in Microbial Fuel Cell Development,” 487.

72. The “short diffusion lengths and high surface-area-to-chamber volume ratio 

utilized in the mini-MFC enhanced power density when compared to output from 

similar macroscopic MFCs.” Ringeisen et al., “High Power Density,” 2629. For cross 

section and area matter, see Ringeisen, Ray, and Little, “A Miniature Microbial Fuel 

Cell,” 591. Angenent is studying “anode-cathode shapes, surfaces areas and distances 

to both increase power and reduce the resistance in the system so that less power is 

lost as it runs.” “Fuel Cell Generates Electricity,” 3.

73. Many microbes may still be awaiting discovery. Lovley, “Bug Juice,” 506.

74. Biotechnology and nanotechnology are closely linked for MFC research. For 

example, see Morozan et al., “Biocompatibility Microorganisms,” 1797–803.

75. For a visual depiction of biological nanowires from pili, see fig. 4 in Gorby et 

al., “Electrically Conductive Bacterial Nanowires,” 11361.

76. “Power Boosted 10-Fold,” 7; Rabaey et al., “Microbial Ecology Meets Electrochemistry,” 9. Rabaey et al. note that “multiple populations within microbial communities can co-operate to achieve energy generation”; Ghangrekar and Shinde, 

“Microbial Fuel Cell,” 8; and Logan et al., “Microbial Fuel Cells,” 5184.

77. Aelterman et al., “Continuous Electricity Generation,” 3388–94.

78. MFCs show promise in the lab, but substantial additional optimization will 

be required for large-scale electricity production. Lovley, “Microbial Fuel Cells,” 327.

79. Rittmann et al., “Vista for Microbial Ecology,” 1102. “The numbers of different 

microbial strains are enormous—de facto infinity. Furthermore, only a tiny fraction 

of the strains have been cultured and characterized. Second, microorganisms can 

evolve rapidly.”

80. Johnson and Diltz, discussion.

81. “Electricity generation in a MFC was obtained after a short acclimatization 

period of less than 10 days.” Of course, this is only the beginning of MFC research, 

so these numbers could go down. See figure 2 in Rodrigo et al., “Production of Electricity,” 200.

82. Schnaars, Megamistakes, 117.

83. An Internal Revenue Service report indicates that Toyota alone has sold 

more than 60,000 hybrid vehicles in the United States, ending a federal tax credit 

incentive program for purchasing that company’s hybrid vehicles. “2008 Hybrids 

Certified as Tax Credit”; and Roberts, End of Oil, 338–39.

84. The average American driver purchases a new vehicle every three to five 

years. Jones, “What Is a Hybrid Vehicle?”

85. Roberts, End of Oil, 338–39.

86. Schnaars, Megamistakes, 118.

87. Ibid., 121.

88. United States Green Building Council, Building Momentum, 4.

89. Ibid., 17.

90. Schnaars, Megamistakes, 153.

91. A lasting effect of the Cold War was a diversion of funds and intellectual talent 

away from “civil research and development and into military programmes.” Abbott, 

Rogers, and Sloboda, Beyond Terror, 59.

92. Lindeburg, Mechanical Engineering Reference Manual, 29-11.
WASTE TO WATTS AND WATER │ 191

93. Energy efficiency measures how much of the energy input can be converted 

to output. Rabaey et al., “Microbial Fuel Cell Capable of Converting Glucose,” 1533. 

The Coulombic efficiency measurement indicates how many of the electrons produced in the anodic chamber can be captured by the electrodes. Rabaey et al., “Tubular 

Microbial Fuel Cells,” 8077.

94. “Electricity generation from wastewater will not by itself solve the need for 

power in the U.S. The energy in human, animal, and food-processing wastewater 

alone can provide at most only 5% of our current electricity needs and thus a small 

percentage of our total energy use. MFCs are just one part of a needed transition to 

a more diverse and stable energy portfolio.” Logan, “Energy Diversity Brings Stability,” 5161.

95. Roberts, End of Oil, 338.

96. See estimate calculations in appendix K, “Basic Cost Analysis”; and for potential synergistic technologies, see appendix I, “Competing and Complementary Microbial Fuel Cell Technologies.”

97. See estimates calculated in appendix K.

98. Simonite, “Dew-Harvesting ‘Web.’ ”

99. United States Green Building Council, Building Momentum, 2.

100. James, “Sierra Bravo.”

101. Even experienced forecasters find social trends the most difficult aspect of 

future technologies to predict. Schnaars, Megamistakes, 100.

102. Buchanan, “Energy and Force Transformation,” 54.

103. Johnson and Diltz, discussion.

104. Roberts, End of Oil, 340.

105. Ibid., 339.

106. Buchanan, “Energy and Force Transformation,” 53–54.

Chapter 8

How to Fuel the Future of Airpower

Maj Yvonne Carrico Gurnick

Throughout history, energy has been the limiting factor in 

all military operations, whether it was Roman armies foraging 

for supplies, or General George S. Patton running out of fuel 

as he dashed across France, or the long military buildup in 

Desert Storm. The situation today is little different.

—Dr. Doug Kirkpatrick

Biofuels Program Manager

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

Oil’s status as a cheap and plentiful resource and use as a primary 

fuel source across the globe have remained unchallenged for over a 

century. Only within the past few decades, amid increasing signs 

that the era of endless oil may be coming to a close, has the search 

for an alternative fuel gained momentum. This quest is especially 

significant for the United States. As the world’s largest oil consumer, 

the United States uses over 20 million barrels of oil per day—an 

amount nearly three times that of the second largest consumer, 

China.1

This situation entails two fundamental problems. First, oil is a 

finite resource. As wells run dry, finding new oil reserves to satisfy 

the world’s demand becomes increasingly difficult. Second, the 

United States cannot support its demand for oil with the present 

domestic supply as it imports nearly 60 percent of the oil needed to 

keep the country running.2

 This environment not only leads to 

problems on the domestic front (such as the recent climb in cost for 

a gallon of unleaded fuel) but also spells trouble for the US military, 

which must grapple with how to keep all of its vehicles supplied 

with fuel. The US Air Force consumes 73 percent of the oil used annually by the military and thus is particularly affected.3

 Amid decreasing stability in the Middle East and increasing volatility in the 

oil market, the United States is progressively more concerned about 
194 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

its dependence on oil and is becoming more involved in the search 

for an alternative fuel.

Unfortunately, the solution for aviation will take more than simply replacing oil with one of the other fuels available. Oil has many 

traits that make it a good fuel: stability, high energy density, and, 

until recently, a cheap and plentiful supply. Aircraft fuel is even more 

exacting, requiring thermal stability, a below-zero freeze point, a 

high energy-to-mass ratio, and a high flash point to avoid the danger 

of fire. Many of the alternative fuels being developed for cars, trucks, 

and other ground-based vehicles do not meet the stringent demands 

required of aviation fuels.

Two areas of alternative fuel research show promise for use in 

aviation. The first is synthetic fuels, created by converting a solid 

feedstock first into a gas and then into a liquid. The three synthetic 

fuels being explored are coal to liquid (CTL), natural gas to liquid 

(GTL), and biomass to liquid (BTL).4

 The second area of research 

starting to gain momentum in aviation is biofuels. Four alternative 

biofuels are being explored: biodiesel, biobutanol, ethanol, and algaeproduced oils.5

 The prospects for all of these fuels will be further 

discussed.

In addition to cost and performance, environmental concerns 

continue to play a larger role in the alternative fuels debate. One aspect is the desire to find a renewable source of fuel. Developing another fuel on a nonrenewable source such as petroleum does little 

good, for even the most abundant nonrenewable resource will eventually run out. A second factor is the desire to reduce the carbon 

dioxide emissions created in the production and use of a fuel. It is for 

this reason that synthetic fuels have been put on hold—their production creates more carbon dioxide than today’s oil refineries.6

 This 

fuel will remain sidelined until the environmental impact of its production can be resolved.

Within the military, the Air Force has taken the lead in the research and development of an alternative aviation fuel. Because the 

Air Force devotes more of its budget and has a greater need for jet 

fuel than the other services, it has the most to gain or lose by finding 

a suitable alternative. Once validated by the Air Force, any alternative 

fuel can be used across the Department of Defense. This paper focuses 

on the Air Force’s role in finding an alternative.

Questions that must be addressed are which alternative fuels are 

now (or soon to be) available that can meet the Air Force’s aviation 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 195

fuel needs, and what aviation fuel options the Air Force should pursue that would be consistent with national security objectives. This 

paper describes two types of alternative aviation fuel available now 

with high prospects for success: coal- or natural-gas-based liquid 

fuel and biofuels created from algae. This paper maintains that CTL 

and GTL fuels should be exploited today to alleviate our immediate 

dependence on foreign oil; however, the Air Force should focus on 

biofuels derived from algae to permanently replace oil-based fuels.

Fischer-Tropsch (FT) fuels are the best alternative for aviation 

today. The Air Force is testing a blended synthetic GTL fuel in 

various aircraft, and this fuel has proven to be compatible with current 

jet fuel specifications and performance requirements. Moreover, 

the United States is believed to hold the greatest share of recoverable coal in the world.7

 Tapping into such a large domestic resource 

would improve dependability as well as alleviate many of the national 

security concerns regarding oil. However, these fuels are only a 

temporary solution, primarily because they are nonrenewable and 

do not meet performance specifications unless they are blended 

with traditional aviation fuel.

Biofuels, especially biofuels from algae, are poised to become the 

jet fuel of tomorrow. In contrast to FT fuels, biofuels would replace 

oil-based jet fuels completely (not as a blend) and offer the best 

prospects for meeting environmental concerns. While the research 

into this fuel is promising, scientists believe that large-scale production of biofuel from algae is still five to 10 years away.8

 The Air 

Force is on the right path pursuing an alternative aviation fuel in 

both FT fuels and biofuel since both of these options will provide 

an alternative to oil for today and tomorrow.

This paper uses an evaluation framework to identify and assess 

three of the alternative jet fuels under development. The next section describes how oil-based fuel became the fuel of choice and the 

specific traits oil exhibits that make it a good choice for aviation. 

Subsequent sections discuss which alternative fuels are available 

and being researched today, focusing on the most promising alternative fuels—coal- and natural-gas-based liquid fuels and biofuels 

synthesized from algae. Based on predetermined evaluation criteria, the potential benefits and shortcomings of these fuels are discussed, culminating in a recommendation on what course of action 

is best for the Air Force.
196 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

Historical Background of Aviation Fuels

US dependence on foreign oil is not a recent occurrence, and 

America’s reliance on imported oil has steadily increased since the 

1950s (fig. 8.1). The recent fluctuations in oil and gas prices are one 

aspect of this dependence. Although media coverage focuses on the 

commercial side of these price changes, the US military must also 

adjust its budget and spending to accommodate any increase in fuel 

costs. For the Air Force, every 1 percent rise in the price of jet fuel 

means an increase of approximately $23 million in annual fuel costs.9

These price fluctuations impact budget planning, considering that in 

2006 the Air Force spent 82 percent (or $5.8 billion) of its energy 

budget on aviation fuel alone.10

400,000

300,000

200,000

100,000

0

Thousand Barrels

U.S. Imports of Crude Oil

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Figure 8.1. Crude oil imports to the United States. (Adapted from

US Energy Information Administration [EIA], “US Imports of Crude 

Oil,” accessed 6 February 2009, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/

mcrimus1m.htm.)

Unlike the automobile, jet aircraft have used an oil-based fuel from 

their inception. Although alternative fuels have been considered over 

the years, previous alternatives could never match up to petroleum’s 

combination of performance, energy content, availability, and price. 

At times, alternative fuels were used out of necessity, such as during 

World War I when illuminating kerosene (typically used for wick 

lamps) was used due to the short supply of gasoline.11 The military 

first published specifications for aviation fuel in 1944, beginning with 

the kerosene fuel named JP-1.12 After World War II the Air Force began 

experimenting with fuel mixtures called wide-cut fuels, which became 

JP-2, JP-3, and JP-4. These fuels are considered wide cut because they 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 197

contain a mixture of various types of kerosene with other flammable 

liquids and were developed to increase the availability of jet fuel in 

case of shortages (such as in times of war).13 However, these wide-cut 

fuels could never match the performance of pure kerosene. The Air 

Force began to move away from wide-cut fuels in the 1970s with the 

introduction of JP-8.14 While several specifications of jet fuel are 

available today, the most prevalent is JP-8 and its commercial equivalent, Jet-A. These fuels are the benchmark for aviation; however, recent increases in cost have prompted both commercial and military 

aviation to look for an alternative.

The commercial airline industry may be motivated by cost to find 

an alternative, but for the military, cost is only one facet of the problem. 

Since the United States cannot feed its demand for oil domestically, it 

must import the majority of its oil from other countries—essentially 

exporting control over the fuel necessary to power the military. This 

lack of control over a primary energy source is a national security issue, 

one that requires intervention on all levels. A dependable and preferably domestic source of fuel is imperative for the Air Force to fly, 

fight, and win today’s and tomorrow’s wars. The future of American 

air superiority depends in part on the creation and implementation 

of a viable alternative jet fuel.

Another consideration is the continued availability of oil. As the 

demand for oil rises globally, supply will begin to fall short, leading to 

higher prices and increased conflict over this finite resource. How 

much longer oil will remain a viable American energy source is one 

of the most controversial questions being asked in the ongoing national 

dialogue on energy. The truth is that no one can accurately predict 

when demand will overtake supply; this issue is subject to constant 

speculation since the amount of oil still awaiting discovery is unknown.

The debate centers around a concept called peak oil—essentially 

the moment in time when half of the earth’s supply of oil has been 

extracted.15 Some geologists believe this point has already been 

reached, while others think it could still be decades away. However, 

once this point in time has passed, the diminishing supply of oil will 

make the remaining quantity increasingly difficult to find and extract. 

Whether or not peak oil has been reached, the volume of oil being 

discovered annually has been in decline since the 1960s, and existing 

fields are producing up to 8 percent less oil each year.16 Waiting until 

the supply of oil is exhausted is not an option when a stable and 

secure future for the United States is at stake.
198 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

Discussion of Alternative Fuels

Alternative fuels are the way of the future, and aviation is no exception. Interest in alternative fuels is not new; in fact, both synthetic 

fuels and biofuels have periodically been researched and developed, 

and both alternatives are currently produced commercially, at least in 

small amounts. This section will focus on the development of synthetic fuels and biofuels and their promise as an alternative aviation 

fuel today. Since the Air Force is investigating both of these options, 

the state of military research will also be discussed.

Synthetic Fuels

Synthetic fuels offer the best alternative to oil today, and their ability 

to augment oil in blended fuel can immediately reduce the demand 

for oil in aviation by up to 50 percent. Synthetic fuels got their start in 

World War II, when Germany developed what is known as the FT 

process to create synthetic fuel from coal due to its lack of domestic 

or importable crude oil.17 In simple terms, the FT process begins by 

combusting a carbon-based starting material to produce a gas. This 

gas is then fed into a reactor where it is mixed with various catalysts 

to produce a synthetic crude oil. This synthetic crude oil can then be 

refined and processed using the same systems used today for natural 

crude oil.18

Synthetic fuel production is currently limited to three primary 

feedstocks: CTL, GTL, and BTL.19 These fuels can be used with minor 

or no modifications to today’s aircraft engines and can be distributed 

using the existing fuel infrastructure. The FT process also yields identical fuel regardless of the starting material, meaning that fuels created 

from different feedstocks can easily be blended together.20

As of this writing, only one commercial-scale facility produces 

aviation fuel using FT CTL production methods. This facility, operated by the South African company Sasol, produces around 150,000 

barrels of synthetic fuel a day.21 In the United States, the Syntroleum 

Company has recently begun production of GTL fuel from natural gas.22

The Air Force’s goal is to certify all of its aircraft on a 50/50 blend 

of JP-8 and synthetic fuel with an additional goal of flying half of the 

fleet on blend fuel by 2016.23 The Air Force has already certified the 

B-52 and C-17 to use GTL synthetic fuel and completed testing on 

the B-1B, F-15, F-22, and KC-135.24 Testing included the aerial refueling 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 199

of an F-22 by a KC-135 as well as the flight of an F-15E at Mach 2.2.25

So far, the test flights have used Syntroleum’s natural gas–based fuel. 

However, the Air Force intends to test a coal-derived fuel later.26

One of the major obstacles standing in the way of full-fledged production of FT fuels is legislation passed under the Clean Air Act of 

2007. Section 526 prohibits any government agency from spending 

taxpayer money on a fuel that emits more carbon dioxide than current fuels either during production or use.27 Although FT fuels burn 

cleaner than their petroleum-based alternatives, their production 

yields up to twice as much carbon dioxide as compared to the production of JP-8.28 This means that until the technology to capture or 

sequester carbon dioxide is improved (and the price of such technology 

is lowered), facilities to produce FT fuels cannot be built, and the 

government cannot purchase these fuels. This manufacturing problem is the biggest drawback to FT fuels. Nevertheless, these fuels have 

many traits that make them an appealing alternative for aviation fuel, 

and one that could be available today.

Biofuels

Biofuels are poised to become the alternative fuel of the future, and 

recent research indicates that algae possess the highest potential of 

any biofuel to date. Research into liquid biofuels goes back to the 

1900s when the biofuel ethanol was used in the first Model T.29 However, once large supplies of crude oil were discovered in Texas and 

Pennsylvania, biofuels fell out of favor with automakers, and gasoline 

became the cheaper fuel of choice.30

Three types of biofuels (defined as generations) are being explored. 

First-generation biofuels are the most common and include ethanol, 

biomass fuels, and biodiesel. These fuels are developed from any crop 

with a high sugar or starch content or from plant-based oils.31 These 

fuels are not ideal for mass production since they compete directly 

with food crops for land and water.

The second generation of biofuel, called “cellulosic ethanol,” comes 

from fibrous plant waste such as stems, leaves, or wood.32 Unfortunately, the process for turning this plant waste into fuel, plus the 

amount of waste that would be required to meet our fuel needs, limits 

the value of this fuel.

The third generation, and the one showing the most promise, is 

fuel derived from algae. The idea of using algae as a fuel source is not 
200 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

new; in fact, the US Energy Department researched producing transportation fuel from algae in 1978. Unfortunately, this research was 

abandoned in 1996 with the conclusion that the cost of biofuel from 

algae would never be competitive with petroleum (which at that time 

was only $20 per barrel).33 However, with increases in the price of oil 

and better technology for oil extraction, today oil from algae holds 

the most potential as a replacement for petroleum.

Biofuel from algae is a completely different fuel than its generation 

one and two counterparts. Generation one and two biofuels are created 

by processing the starches or sugars of plants (or plant waste) to make 

an ethanol-based fuel. In contrast, biofuel from algae is processed 

from the oil produced by microalgae organisms. These oils are lipids 

and triglycerides similar to what is in vegetable oil and are processed 

into a kerosene-type (not ethanol based) fuel.34 This difference allows 

biofuel from algae to be used for more complex fuels, such as those 

required for aviation.

While the pursuit of synthetic fuels seems to be on hold, the Air 

Force is increasing its interest in biofuels. Recently, the Air Force announced its intention to acquire two types of biofuel for testing in Air 

Force aircraft, with the initial goal of certifying both types of fuel for 

use as a 50/50 blend by 2013.35 The Air Force is not the only agency 

working to find an alternative aviation fuel; both Virgin Atlantic and 

Boeing are jointly researching the use of biofuels in commercial aviation.36 Additionally, the Commercial Aviation Alternative Fuels Initiative was created in 2006 to work with organizations such as the 

Federal Aviation Administration and to research potential alternative 

fuels for commercial aviation, including biofuels.37

There is no single answer to this problem; however, it is clear that 

both the Air Force and commercial airlines need to develop substitutes for oil-based jet fuel—alternative fuel development and production are keys to future national security and economic stability.

Methodology and Explanation of Evaluation Criteria

Many traits have made oil the fuel of choice for aviation. Covering 

all of these qualities would be impractical; therefore, this paper focuses 

on six traits of oil-based fuels that any alternative must meet or exceed: 

performance capabilities, energy content, compatibility, low cost/low 

carbon, source, and storage/transport requirements (fig. 8.2). Although 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 201

JP-8 is used as the baseline for comparison, Jet-A (the commercial fuel 

of choice) is nearly identical and shares the same qualities as far as the 

examined traits are concerned.

• Viscosity, flash point, freeze point, thermal stability

• Mass and volume of fuel compared to energy available

• “Drop-in” ready for current aircraft engines

• Low cost and low carbon, environmentally friendly

• Sustainability of production, renewable versus nonrenewable,

 competition with food production resources

• Production to distribution, fuel safety

Performance

Capabilities

Energy

Content

Compatibility

Dual C’s

Source

Storage and 

Transportation

Figure 8.2. Aviation fuel traits

Performance

The first trait, and arguably the most important, is that any alternative fuel must match the performance capabilities of JP-8. While 

many factors encompass a fuel’s performance capability, this paper 

analyzes four traits to determine any alternative fuel’s suitability (fig. 8.3).

Viscosity

Flash Point

Freezing Point

Thermal

Stability

GTL CTL Biofuel from

Algae

Figure 8.3. Performance analysis

√ = meets or exceeds requirements

≈ = partially meets requirements

Χ = does not meet requirements

Note: Performance standards for biofuel from algae have an asterisk to indicate 

this is the desired performance capability; this fuel is tested to verify results.
202 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

Viscosity. Viscosity is a liquid’s amount of resistance to flow under 

pressure; this property increases as temperature decreases. If viscosity 

is too high, an engine cannot be relit in flight; therefore, an upper 

limit is specified for jet fuel.38 The maximum viscosity for JP-8 is 8.00 

centistokes at -20° Celsius (C).39

Flash point. Flash point is the lowest temperature at which a fuel’s 

vapors will ignite. Due to handling and ground safety concerns, a 

minimum flash point of 38° C (100° Fahrenheit [F]) is specified for 

jet fuel.40

Freezing point. The freezing point for jet fuel is measured by determining the temperature at which the last solid crystal melts; therefore, 

this limit is much higher than the temperature at which it will completely solidify.41 The maximum freezing point for jet fuel is -40° C.42

Thermal stability. The thermal stability measurement indicates a 

fuel’s ability to absorb heat from other engine components (act as a 

heat sink) without breaking down into gums or particles that build 

up on engine components. Fuels are tested under extreme conditions 

to measure this property since it can take hundreds of hours of normal 

operation to determine inadequate thermal stability.43 JP-8 is currently rated at 325° F for thermal stability.44

Energy Content

The second trait is energy content, as the primary purpose of any 

fuel is to provide a source of energy for power. Typically, this energy 

is released by breaking the bonds between carbon and hydrogen molecules within the fuel.45 Fuel is measured for both gravimetric (mass or 

specific energy) and volumetric energy content, and it is desirable to 

have a low mass/volume compared to energy content.46 This is important because any fuel with lower energy content would either 

require more fuel (more weight, decreased payload) or result in less 

range than an aircraft fueled with JP-8.

Compatibility

The third trait is the ability to use any new fuel in existing aircraft 

without changing engine or fuel system components or altering dayto-day operations. These fuels are classified as “drop-in,” meaning 

they are interchangeable as well as mixable with today’s aviation fuel.47
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 203

Low Cost / Low Carbon

The fourth requirement is actually two traits whose importance is 

intertwined. Cdr Jeffrey Eggers, in his journal article “The Fuel Gauge 

of National Security,” calls this requirement “the dual C’s: low cost 

and low carbon.”48 To succeed, a fuel must be similar in cost to and 

more environmentally friendly (less carbon emissions over the entire 

life cycle) than JP-8. Researchers estimate that to be competitive with 

current fuel costs, any replacement fuel needs to meet a two-to-three

-dollars-per-gallon price frame. Fuel is required to have lower carbon 

emissions in accordance with the 2007 Energy Independence and 

Security Act. A provision within this law prohibits any government 

agency from purchasing an alternative fuel whose creation and/or 

use emits more greenhouse gases than conventional fuels.49

Source

The fifth trait of an alternative fuel is its source. Considerations 

pertaining to a fuel’s source include whether production is sustainable, whether the resource is renewable or nonrenewable, and 

whether the fuel source competes with land or water resources used 

for food production.

Storage and Transport

Finally, the last traits that are important for any alternative fuel to meet 

are storage and transport requirements. These include requirements 

such as getting the fuel from production to distribution to aircraft and 

ensuring that the fuel is safe for ground personnel to work with.

Evaluation Results and Analysis

In this section, I analyze each of the three alternative fuels according to the six traits. Because GTL and CTL are created using the FT 

process, they are nearly identical fuels with the exception of their 

source (natural gas or coal, respectively). Both synthetic and biofuel 

aviation fuels are being developed using the current characteristics of 

JP-8. The closer they match these specifications, the more likely they 

will be adopted for use. With that in mind, the first three areas of 

evaluation (performance, energy content, compatibility) do not deviate 

far from the standards set by JP-8. It is in the last three areas (low 
204 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

cost/carbon, source, storage and transport) that the strengths and 

weaknesses of these future fuels can be determined. The initial production cost of these fuels is not being considered as a factor for the 

cost analysis portion of this paper. It would be unfair to compare 

these initial costs with the established mass-production costs of petroleum. The cost portion of this analysis assumes that once massproduced, these fuels must be in the price range of two to three dollars 

per gallon to be competitive with the price of oil at approximately $90 

a barrel.

Performance

The performance standards for synthetic fuels as well as biofuels 

are very close to those for JP-8. Measurements have shown that FT 

fuels (CTL and GTL) perform better overall than petroleum and that 

they have a higher flash point (less likely to catch fire on the ground), 

lower freezing point (can withstand colder temperatures), and better 

thermal stability (can handle more heat before breaking down).50

One problem with FT fuels is that they contain no aromatics. While 

aromatic-free fuel is cleaner burning, these compounds allow the 

seals and gaskets in an aircraft’s fuel system to swell and prevent fuel 

leaks.51 Since FT fuels have only been used as a blend with conventional fuel, the lack of aromatics has not been a problem. If FT fuels 

are used alone, additives that simulate the role of aromatics should be 

included during the refining process. Such measures do not affect the 

performance of FT fuels and only ensure that engine and fuel system 

components continue to operate as they do with JP-8.

Less data exists about the performance capabilities of biofuels, although there are reports that the DARPA has recently manufactured 

a fuel identical to JP-8 using algae as the feedstock.52 In the past, biofuels have not enjoyed much support in aviation due to their tendency to freeze close to 0° C and insufficient thermal stability. Initial 

research on biofuels developed from algae indicates that these problems 

have been solved and that a fuel matching the performance specifications of JP-8 (without blending) is possible with these biofuels.53

Energy Content

Second to performance, energy content is a critical factor for any 

replacement fuel. FT fuels are similar to jet fuel in energy content 

(the slightly higher gravimetric content and slightly lower volumetric 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 205

content do not affect performance).54 Biofuels typically do not have 

the same energy content of JP-8, falling between 10 to 50 percent 

short of jet fuel energy content.55 The reason lies in the atomic structure of each fuel. Biofuels contain more oxygen bonds than their synthetic and petroleum counterparts, and unlike carbon and hydrogen 

bonds, these bonds yield no energy when broken.56 Biofuel from algae 

shows more promise in this area since the oil from algae appears to be 

more similar to crude oil than what is typically extracted from a biofuel feedstock.

Compatibility

Both FT fuels and biofuel from algae are being developed so that 

they are drop-in ready and can immediately replace current aviation 

fuels (fig. 8.4). As discussed above, if FT fuels are used, aromatics 

must be added to avoid leaks from engine components. It is unclear if 

biofuel from algae would also require the addition of aromatics.

“Drop-in” ready √ √ √ *

GTL CTL Biofuel from

Algae

Figure 8.4. Compatibility analysis

√ = meets or exceeds requirements

≈ = partially meets requirements 

Χ = does not meet requirements

Low Cost/Low Carbon

The dual requirements of cost and carbon are at present the Achilles heel of alternative fuels. Both FT fuels and biofuels have certain 

limitations that may prevent the commercial marketplace from accepting them as alternative fuels (fig. 8.5). The cost to build a single 

FT refining facility is from $2 to $4 billion dollars, not including the 

additional costs for carbon capture and sequestration.57 To produce 

enough biofuel from algae to meet today’s aviation fuel demands 

would cost from $74 billion to $2.5 trillion (depending on what 

method is eventually selected to extract the oil from the algae).58

While these amounts may seem astronomical, once mass-produced 

FT fuels and biofuels can likely compete with oil priced above $75 a 

barrel.59 Because biofuels from algae have only been produced in 
206 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

small amounts and algae growth and extraction methods are still being 

developed, it is not possible to determine whether or not biofuel from 

algae can be competitively priced.

$3 or less per gallon

Equal or less CO2

GTL CTL Biofuel from

Algae

Figure 8.5. Carbon and cost analysis 

√ = meets or exceeds requirements

≈ = partially meets requirements

Χ = does not meet requirements

The carbon problem must also be addressed before committing to 

any alternative fuel choice. The European Union (EU) has proposed 

adding aviation emissions to existing mandatory cap-and-trade 

guidelines (where an airline would be responsible for purchasing carbon 

offsets based on the amount of carbon dioxide released); however, 

many non-EU commercial carriers are fighting this plan.60 In the 

United States, Congress proposes to regulate the carbon dioxide standards for fuel producers instead of targeting the airlines directly.61 In 

either case, carbon emissions may soon become a larger player in the 

cost of any aviation fuel.

FT fuels fail regarding environmental concerns due to the carbon 

dioxide released during their manufacture. While the prospects for 

carbon capture and sequestration are promising, this technology will 

add to the final cost of these fuels. On the other hand, biofuels not 

only produce 60 to 80 percent less carbon dioxide over their entire 

life cycle, they also feed on carbon dioxide and could be used to decrease carbon dioxide output from power plants and refineries.62

Source

Biofuels also outpace FT fuels when the source is considered (fig. 8.6). 

Both natural gas and coal are nonrenewable sources of fuel that will run 

out over time, much like oil. Although both coal and natural gas are sustainable today, once the US domestic supplies are exhausted, an alternative source would be required. However, biofuels are both renewable 

and sustainable. The supply of oil is limited only by our capacity to grow 

and harvest algae. Previously it was thought that the area required to 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 207

grow enough algae to satisfy demand would be impractical. (In 2008 the 

Boeing company estimated that nearly 1 million square kilometers—an 

area the size of Belgium—would be required.63) However, scientists discovered that algae is a very flexible material and is able to grow and reproduce in sunlit tubes, below ground in total darkness, and in saltwater 

or sewage treatment facilities.64 Another benefit is that algae do not compete directly with food or water resources like some other biofuels. It is 

this wide range of possibilities that scientists hope to exploit as they determine the best method of growing and harvesting oil from algae.

Renewable

Sustainable

GTL CTL Biofuel from

Algae

Figure 8.6. Source analysis 

√ = meets or exceeds requirements

≈ = partially meets requirements

Χ = does not meet requirements

Storage and Transport

In all of the tests completed to date, both synthetic fuels and biofuels 

have met or exceeded the storage and transportation safety requirements that conventional fuels must meet. Moreover, once synthetic fuels 

or biofuels leave the refineries, they can be transported using the same 

network already established for petroleum products (fig. 8.7). Due to 

their similarities to jet fuel, both synthetic and biojet fuel can also be 

mixed with conventional aviation fuel in blends, such as the 50/50 JP-8 

and GTL fuels undergoing certification by the US Air Force.65

Safe to Store

Safe to Transport

Able to use

current Infrastructure

GTL CTL Biofuel from

Algae

Figure 8.7. Storage and transport analysis

√ = meets or exceeds requirements

≈ = partially meets requirements

Χ = does not meet requirements
208 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

Summary of Analysis

The summary chart (fig. 8.8) shows that biofuel from algae holds 

clear advantages over FT fuels in terms of low carbon emissions, renewability, and sustainability. The only relative advantage of FT fuels 

is that they may be cheaper than biofuel from algae; however, this 

benefit may vanish once the costs for carbon capture and sequestration are factored in. All three fuels meet performance, energy content, and operability requirements for use in both military and commercial aircraft. In addition, all of these fuels can be stored and 

transported using the current petroleum infrastructure. Finally, the 

four areas that are marginal for FT fuels (cost, carbon, renewable, and 

sustainable) are also marginal for oil. The one advantage FT fuels, 

especially CTL fuels, have over oil is the source: the EIA estimates 

that the United States has more recoverable coal than any other nation, 

and as a region, North America is second only to eastern Europe (including Russia).66

Performance

Energy Content

Compatibility

Low Cost

Low Carbon

Renewable

Sustainable

Storage/Transport

GTL CTL Biofuel from

Algae

Figure 8.8. Summary of analysis

√ = meets or exceeds requirements

≈ = partially meets requirements

Χ = does not meet requirements

There is one further area to discuss when evaluating these fuels—

time. While biofuels appear to be the ideal petroleum replacement, 

we are just beginning to understand their production and development. The US Energy Department believes that lowering the price of 

fuel from algae to a competitive level will take from five to 10 more 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 209

years; increasing levels of production to meet demand could take 

even longer.67 FT fuels are capable of being produced today, but compliance with the emissions standards set by the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act will take time to develop and implement. One 

of the biggest barriers to alternative fuels in aviation is that despite 

their capabilities and benefits, neither of these fuels are ready to take 

the place of oil today.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Oil, once plentiful and cheap, has become an unpredictable resource that can no longer be depended upon as the primary energy 

source for the world. In the United States, finding a domestic source 

of fuel is essential for economic and national security concerns. Today, the search for an alternative energy supply has expanded to include aviation. Although aircraft have used oil-based fuels from the 

beginning, the technology and motivation to develop an alternative 

aviation fuel are finally at hand.

The three alternatives showing the most promise for aviation are 

CTL, GTL, and biofuels from algae. Analyzing these fuels and comparing their common traits with those of JP-8 show that both synthetics and biofuel from algae meet or exceed the performance specifications expected of jet fuel. In addition, none of the fuels examined 

requires changes to aircraft engine components or the storage and 

transport methods already in place for aviation fuel. However, CTL 

and GTL face the same problem as oil in that they are nonrenewable 

and nonsustainable; additionally, they have a higher carbon dioxide 

footprint than does oil. Biofuels are low carbon, renewable, and sustainable but may require at least another decade before they are ready 

for commercial production.

The Air Force has been working to develop an alternative fuel for 

military aviation and until recently was focusing solely on FT fuels 

developed from coal or natural gas. However, the spotlight on the 

high carbon levels associated with the production of these fuels has 

halted the fuels’ development, at least temporarily. Furthermore, the 

recent advances in developing biofuel from algae have garnered the 

military’s attention, and plans to test this fuel are in the works. The 

Air Force must now decide which option is better: investing in the 
210 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

carbon capture technology required to bring FT fuels on line or remaining dependent on oil and placing all bets on biofuel from algae.

If the Air Force continues to pursue FT fuels, a higher initial investment will be required to cover the extra costs associated with carbon 

capture. As oil prices decrease, justifying this additional cost will become more difficult for the Air Force and commercial airlines. However, the long-term benefits of investing in FT fuels outweigh these 

initial costs, especially if the price of oil skyrockets. If the Air Force 

does not pursue FT fuels, oil will remain the only source of aircraft 

fuel for at least the next decade. With the volatility of today’s oil market, 

it is impossible to calculate the costs of having no alternative to oil for 

another 10 years.

By continuing to pursue biofuels, the Air Force will increase the 

potential for moving completely away from oil-based aviation fuel. 

However, making this happen will take time and money. If the Air 

Force does not pursue biofuels, it will fall behind the alternative-fuels 

power curve; the civilian sector will continue to pursue these and 

other alternative aviation fuels. However, military involvement in 

biofuels means increased investment, higher product demand, and 

typically more stringent testing. Commercial airlines may not have 

the motivation or capital to develop biofuels without the investment 

and support of the military.

I recommend that the Air Force continue to pursue both FT fuels 

and biofuel from algae. While the initial costs of FT fuels may be 

high, these fuels are ready to be produced at a commercial level and 

can immediately decrease the oil required for jet fuel by 50 percent. 

Since these fuels have been certified for use in commercial aircraft, 

partnerships between the military and commercial airlines could 

help diffuse the initial costs of getting FT production up and running, 

as well as the investment costs of carbon capture and storage technology.

However, FT fuels are a temporary solution, and the goal of finding a permanent replacement for oil must continue. Biofuel from algae 

could be that solution. It is renewable and sustainable, and initial research indicates that biofuel from algae can be manufactured into a 

fuel identical to today’s jet fuel. By remaining involved in both programs, the Air Force can utilize FT fuels to reduce aviation’s reliance 

on oil today while simultaneously developing biofuels as the future of 

aviation fuel and a replacement for oil tomorrow. The Air Force has a 

unique role in this research, and unlike the commercial airlines, its 
HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER │ 211

decisions will extend beyond aviation and can impact both the future 

economic stability and national security of the United States.

Notes

1. EIA, “Petroleum Basic Statistics.”

2. Ibid.

3. Eggers, “Fuel Gauge of National Security,” 12.

4. Williams, “Military Planners Explore Options.”

5. Ibid.

6. Altman, “Global Climate Change.”

7. EIA, “World Estimated Recoverable Coal.”

8. William Matthews, “From Algae to JP-8: Pentagon’s DARPA Funds Efforts to 

Make a Green Jet Fuel,” Air Force Times, 5 January 2009, http://www.defensenews.

com/story.php?i=3885995.

9. Gayle S. Putrich and Vago Muradian, “Rising Fuel Prices Change Air Force Ops—

Officials Look for Ways to Become More Efficient,” Air Force Times, 28 July 2008, 10.

10. Ibid.

11. “History of Jet Fuel.”

12. Ibid.

13. Ibid.

14. Hemighaus et al., Aviation Fuels Technical Review, 1.

15. Roberts, “Tapped Out,” 87.

16. Ibid., 88.

17. Chandler, “Fueling the Future,” 39.

18. Kopp, US Air Force Synthetic Fuels Program, 4.

19. Williams, “Military Planners Explore Options.”

20. Hemighaus et al., Alternative Jet Fuels, 6.

21. Williams, “Military Planners Explore Options.”

22. Kopp, US Air Force Synthetic Fuels Program, 10.

23. Upson, “U.S. Air Force Synthetic-Fuel Program in Limbo.”

24. Price, “Flying the Coal-Fired Skies,” 1.

25. Upson, “U.S. Air Force Synthetic-Fuel Program in Limbo.”

26. Ibid.

27. Price, “Flying the Coal-Fired Skies,” 2.

28. Ott, “Algae Advances,” 66.

29. EIA, “Ethanol—A Renewable Fuel.”

30. Smith, “Biofuels.”

31. Ibid.

32. Ibid.

33. Matthews, “From Algae to JP-8.”

34. Smith, “Biofuels.”

35. Anselmo, “USAF Launches Major Biofuel Initiative.”

36. Gaffney, “Fly the Eco-Friendly Skies,” 40.

37. Altman, “Global Climate Change.”

38. Hemighaus et al., Aviation Fuels Technical Review, 7.
212 │ HOW TO FUEL THE FUTURE OF AIRPOWER

39. ExxonMobil Aviation, World Jet Fuel Specifications, 8.

40. Hemighaus et al., Aviation Fuels Technical Review, 10.

41. Ibid., 7.

42. Hemighaus et al., Alternative Jet Fuels, 8.

43. Hemighaus et al., Aviation Fuels Technical Review, 5.

44. Ibid., 31.

45. Hemighaus et al., Alternative Jet Fuels, 2.

46. Ibid.

47. Altman, “Global Climate Change.”

48. Eggers, “Fuel Gauge of National Security,” 12.

49. Kauffman, “Pentagon’s Plans Hit Turbulence,” 4.

50. Chandler, “Fueling the Future,” 40.

51. Hemighaus et al., Alternative Jet Fuels, 5.

52. Chandler, “Exotic No More,” 50.

53. Ibid.

54. Ibid.

55. Chandler, “Fueling the Future,” 41.

56. Hemighaus et al., Alternative Jet Fuels, 2.

57. Chandler, “Fueling the Future,” 41.

58. Ott, “Algae Advances,” 66.

59. Ibid.

60. Caruso, “Carbon in the Skies,” 15.

61. Ibid.

62. Chandler, “Exotic No More,” 52.

63. Ott, “Algae Advances,” 66.

64. Chandler, “Exotic No More,” 53.

65. Ott, “Algae Advances,” 66.

66. EIA, “World Estimated Recoverable Coal.”

67. Matthews, “From Algae to JP-8.”
Chapter 9

Conclusion

Dr. John T. Ackerman and Dr. Kathleen Mahoney-Norris

The distinct and multifaceted future trends examined in this collection share the recurring theme of their potential effect on US 

national security. The authors investigated specific research topics 

thoroughly but with the clear insistence that their studies are not the 

last word and that more analysis of the topics—as well as monitoring 

of future warning signs—is needed. Forecasting what is possible and 

desirable, as the summaries below indicate, requires persistence, diligence, and foresight.

Maj Kelvin S. Fan’s qualitative investigation into the future impacts 

of the “mercenarizing” of the US government clearly identifies this 

trend as a threat to US national security. The lack of private military 

company regulations, transparency, and accountability damages the 

US strategic image and hinders the accomplishment of key security 

objectives. His research succinctly identifies three negative trends 

that US government officials need to be cognizant of:

•  Tactical but short-term successes of private military companies

(PMC) have undermined strategic efforts; poaching practices 

can potentially weaken US military forces in the long term.

•  Several recent high-profile PMC missteps have damaged the

global opinion of the United States and undermined current and 

future activities to bolster freedom, justice, and human dignity 

internationally.

•  The lack of legally enforceable regulation, accountability, and

transparency undercuts the United States’ overriding support 

for fairness, democracy, and the rule of law.

If decision makers within the US government recognize the negative trends Fan identifies and use those trends as starting points for a 

substantial and dedicated dialogue toward reversing them, then their 

selective use of PMCs may be productive and positive. However, if 

these leaders ignore trends and continue down the path of less regulation, transparency, and accountability, PMCs will become a “bane 
214 │ CONCLUSION

for national security” and a blight on US national interests around 

the world. Fan concludes that follow-up into how these trends are 

evolving requires consistent and detailed monitoring of PMC activity 

both at home and abroad.

Lt Col Kelly L. Varitz’s evaluation of plausible Western European 

futures highlights many aspects of US-European security relations. 

As the population of Western Europe ages and European states become more reliant on external energy sources, those states will have 

to make some difficult choices. The challenging decisions will directly 

influence the security relationship between the United States and our 

European allies. Will Western European nations become more isolationist as their gross domestic products and cohorts of military-age 

youth shrink? Will massive influxes of migrant youths from cultures 

alien to Western European society assimilate rapidly and painlessly, 

or will Western European culture be forced to evolve toward the new 

norms and values of the migrants? Will Western Europe become 

wholly dependent on Russian energy sources, susceptible to Russian 

foreign policy impulses and eventually a vassal to Moscow’s power? 

Irrespective of which future becomes reality, US national security 

professionals must be aware of the possible defense implications and 

consequences, monitor the trends, and prepare diligently for each 

uncertain future.

Lt Col Lourdes M. Duvall’s in-depth look at key aspects of approaching developments in information technology reveals the critical 

prominence of human cognition and its relationships to Air Force 

command and control (C2) activities. She reviews the current USAF 

C2 vision and key capabilities required for future C2 operations, basic 

concepts of human information processing, and human-systems interaction. Her insightful recognition of the importance of these facets of 

situational awareness shines a necessary spotlight on how essential 

this area is to USAF C2 dominance on the battlefield. In addition, she 

illustrates the ongoing status of USAF C2 operations by using an air 

and space operations center (AOC) as an example. Duvall exposes 

the remarkable recent advances in C2 as well as the specific limitations of the current approach to C2 system design and integration 

with respect to human factors and human-computer interaction. She 

also crafts a plan for C2 system design, development, and implementation that seeks to enhance human cognitive strengths and mitigate 

inherent limitations. Duvall’s recommendations are supported by 

human factors and human-computer interaction field research, 
CONCLUSION │ 215

including tactical flying operations. Finally, she proposes a forwardleaning conclusion that “to maintain and expand our advantage in 

C2, the human aspects of information processing, decision making, 

and human-system interaction must be understood and integrated in 

the USAF C2 vision.”

The basic undertone of Lt Col Christopher S. Kean and CDR David 

C. Kneale’s research is the necessity of vigilance. They conclude that 

climate change in the Arctic should be seen as a warning and should 

underpin future security policy decisions. They also stress that our 

current international relations paradigms are inadequate for informing Arctic security discussions and policy making. Kean and Kneale 

suggest that “the shared natural environment and its understanding 

through the scientific community may be the new drivers to shape 

the political response to climate change.” As a consequence, they advise 

implementing ecologically grounded economic, political, technological, and security processes that enhance global cooperation and collaborative efforts, especially in the fragile and dynamic polar environments. US national security decision makers would do well to 

heed these warnings and recommendations.

Lt Col Jack Donahue’s survey of impending threats to domestic 

and international security created by the growing quantities of orbital 

space debris should spur more intense global efforts to address this 

potentially catastrophic challenge. A collision between a manned 

spacecraft and one of the thousands of pieces of junk orbiting the 

planet could be deadly. Also, a marble-sized piece of space trash 

crashing into a commercial communications satellite could shut 

down global finance, banking, and Internet commerce for extended 

periods. Donahue documents these future threats, explores their 

ramifications, hypothesizes potential futures, and identifies plausible 

courses of action to meet the orbital debris challenge. Notably, his 

recommendations for effectively mitigating the debris threat provide 

a valid and credible starting point for reducing the risk of disaster 

today. In particular, Donahue maintains that coming changes in 

space technology will have huge consequences on the space debris 

challenge as new technological advances could rapidly decrease the 

amount of orbiting trash. But global cooperation and collaboration 

are needed to research, develop, and deploy the new technologies. He 

recommends hardening new satellites against collisions; building 

new, more robust space-debris-monitoring capabilities; and planning/

implementing backup systems to current and future satellite systems/
216 │ CONCLUSION

competencies. Donahue also recognizes that the United States cannot 

alleviate the space debris problem alone and will need international 

assistance to meet this challenge. His final statement clearly highlights the urgency surrounding this threat: “The world can change the 

potential alarming future of a catastrophic collision from orbital debris. 

The time to act is now.”

Lt Col Amanda S. Birch offers an in-depth analysis of an emerging 

technology that has utility across several security planning domains. 

Microbial fuel cells (MFC) can provide energy and clean water during conventional or major theater conflicts, when terrorists destroy 

or damage key energy or freshwater infrastructures, or when they 

strike at home or abroad after hurricanes, tornadoes, earthquakes, or 

other destructive natural disasters. She indicates that MFCs are “a 

flexible technology capable of enabling effects across the entire range 

of military operations and, as a bonus, they will also quickly pay for 

themselves.” Conversely, she concludes that the development of MFC 

technology will require more than just an infusion of research and 

development funds. Widespread availability of MFC technology will 

become a reality in the future only if the Defense Department enables 

“a collaborative approach that addresses not only the technological 

barriers at the scientific and systems integration level but also the key 

social, industrial, and political hurdles as well.” Birch convincingly 

argues that planning for our future national security challenges will 

always include the need for clean water and a nearly limitless energy 

supply, regardless if the threat is focused on combat operations or 

humanitarian disaster relief. She also cautions that now is the time 

to act.

Finally, Maj Yvonne Gurnick’s inquiry into alternative fuel supplies for the Air Force begins and ends with a clear admonition: “Oil, 

once plentiful and cheap, has become an unpredictable resource that 

can no longer be depended upon as the primary energy source for the 

world.” From her research, she finds that the USAF faces a fork in the 

road that will dramatically alter its future. “The Air Force must now 

decide which option is better: investing in the carbon capture technology required to bring FT [Fischer-Tropsch] fuels online or remaining dependent on oil and placing all bets on biofuel from algae.” 

Gurnick offers FT fuels as a solution for today and as a bridge from 

current dependence on the volatile oil market to future employment 

of the newest technologies using algae. She emphasizes that for 
CONCLUSION │ 217

national security reasons, the USAF should remain engaged in fuels 

research now and in the near future.

The futures research presented in this text is orientated toward two 

audiences. Some researchers focused their efforts on understanding 

trends in light of their application to improving decision making in 

the US security policy arena. Others explored, in a rigorous academic 

fashion, critical technological trends that could most influence US 

national security in the near future. Decision-oriented futures research 

will help policy makers identify the most relevant and pressing critical 

factors or driving forces. The academic approach often exposes a 

range of technological trends, assessing their impacts against a specific set of assumptions or criteria.1

 Both methods have started dialogue on emerging trends that futures researchers as well as US 

nationalsecurity leadersshould continue. Together, these approaches

should help decision makers “illuminate policy choices, identify and 

evaluate alternative actions, and, at least to some degree, avoid pitfalls 

and grasp the opportunities of the future.”2

Notes

1. Glenn, “Introduction to the Futures Research,” 8.

2. Ibid., 6.

Appendix A

Isotherm Arctic Map

(Courtesy of National Snow and Ice Data Center, Perry-Castañeda 

Library map collection.)

Appendix B

Sea Ice Melting

September sea ice extent: observations and model runs. (Courtesy 

of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, http://www.

ucar.edu/news/releases/2007/images/arctic_sea_ice_extent6.jpg.)

Appendix C

Indigenous Arctic Populations

(Map courtesy of Arctic Council, http://www.arctic-council.org/images/maps/indig_peoples.pdf. Compiled by Winfried K. Dallmann, Norwegian Polar Institute.)

Appendix D

Ilulissat Declaration

The Ilulissat Declaration

Arctic Ocean Conference

Ilulissat, Greenland, 27–29 May 2008

At the invitation of the Danish minister for foreign affairs and the 

premier of Greenland, representatives of the five coastal states bordering the Arctic Ocean—Canada, Denmark, Norway, the Russian 

Federation, and the United States—met at the political level on 28 

May 2008 in Ilulissat, Greenland, to hold discussions. They adopted 

the following declaration:

The Arctic Ocean stands at the threshold of significant changes. Climate 

change and the melting of ice have a potential impact on vulnerable ecosystems, 

the livelihoods of local inhabitants and indigenous communities, and the 

potential exploitation of natural resources.

By virtue of their sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction in large areas 

of the Arctic Ocean, the five coastal states are in a unique position to address 

these possibilities and challenges. In this regard, we recall that an extensive 

international legal framework applies to the Arctic Ocean as discussed between 

our representatives at the meeting in Oslo on 15 and 16 October 2007 at the 

level of senior officials. Notably, the law of the sea provides for important 

rights and obligations concerning the delineation of the outer limits of the 

continental shelf, the protection of the marine environment, including 
226 │ APPENDIx d

ice-covered areas, freedom of navigation, marine scientific research, and 

other uses of the sea. We remain committed to this legal framework and to the 

orderly settlement of any possible overlapping claims.

This framework provides a solid foundation for responsible management by 

the five coastal States and other users of this Ocean through national implementation and application of relevant provisions. We therefore see no need to 

develop a new comprehensive international legal regime to govern the Arctic 

Ocean. We will keep abreast of the developments in the Arctic Ocean and 

continue to implement appropriate measures.

The Arctic Ocean is a unique ecosystem, which the five coastal states have a 

stewardship role in protecting. Experience has shown how shipping disasters 

and subsequent pollution of the marine environment may cause irreversible 

disturbance of the ecological balance and major harm to the livelihoods of 

local inhabitants and indigenous communities. We will take steps in accordance with international law both nationally and in cooperation among the 

five states and other interested parties to ensure the protection and preservation 

of the fragile marine environment of the Arctic Ocean. In this regard we intend 

to work together including through the International Maritime Organization 

to strengthen existing measures and develop new measures to improve the 

safety of maritime navigation and prevent or reduce the risk of ship-based 

pollution in the Arctic Ocean.

The increased use of Arctic waters for tourism, shipping, research, and resource development also increases the risk of accidents and therefore the need 

to further strengthen search and rescue capabilities and capacity around the 

Arctic Ocean to ensure an appropriate response from states to any accident. 

Cooperation, including on the sharing of information, is a prerequisite for 

addressing these challenges. We will work to promote safety of life at sea in the 

Arctic Ocean, including through bilateral and multilateral arrangements between 

or among relevant states.

The five coastal states currently cooperate closely in the Arctic Ocean with 

each other and with other interested parties. This cooperation includes the 

collection of scientific data concerning the continental shelf, the protection of 

the marine environment, and other scientific research. We will work to 

strengthen this cooperation, which is based on mutual trust and transparency, 

inter alia, through timely exchange of data and analyses.1

Note

1. Ilulissat Declaration, “Arctic Ocean Conference,” Ilulissat, Greenland, 27–29 

May 2008: 27-29.
Appendix E

Maritime Jurisdiction and Boundaries in the Arctic Region

North

Pole

( D E N M A R K )

ICELAND

NORWAY

SWEDEN

FINLAND

North

Pole

L o m o n o s o v R i d g e

RUSSIA

G r e e n l a n d G r e e n l a n d

U S A

Polar stereographic projection

0 nautical miles 400 at 66°N

0 kilometres 600

© International Boundaries Research Unit www.durham.ac.uk/ibru

R U S S I A

C A N A D A

A cr t ci i C cr el 6( ° 6 33 N’ )

180° E / W

0°E / W

45°W

45°E

135°E

135°W

90°W 90°E

Unclaimed or unclaimable continental

shelf (note 1)

Denmark territorial sea and EEZ

Denmark claimed continental shelf

beyond 200 nm (note 2)

Canada territorial sea and

exclusive economic zone (EEZ)

Iceland EEZ

Iceland claimed continental shelf

beyond 200 nm (note 2)

Norway territorial sea and EEZ / Fishery zone 

(Jan Mayen) / Fishery protection zone (Svalbard)

Internal waters

Potential Canada continental shelf

beyond 200 nm (see note 1)

Potential Denmark continental shelf

beyond 200 nm (note 1)

Norway claimed continental shelf

beyond 200 nm (note 3)

Russia territorial sea and EEZ

USA territorial sea and EEZ

Russia claimed continental shelf

beyond 200 nm (note 4)

Potential USA continental shelf

beyond 200 nm (note 1)

Norway-Russia Special Area (note 5)

Overlapping Canada / USA EEZ (note 6) 

Eastern Special Area (note 7)

Straight baselines

Agreed boundary

Median line

350 nm from baselines (note 1)

100 nm from 2500 m isobath

(beyond 350 nm from baselines) (note 1)

Svalbard treaty area (note 8)

(Map courtesy of Durham University International Boundaries Research 

Unit, http://www.dur.ac.uk/resources/ibru/arctic.pdf.)

Appendix F

Bering Strait and the Chukchi Sea

(Map courtesy of Wikipedia.com, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chukchi_

Sea, Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.)

Appendix G

Applications and Collaboration Partners

Microbial fuel cells (MFC) have many potential applications 

within DOD and beyond. The figure below lists some applications 

and the agencies that are potential collaboration partners.

Application relevance tree

Because of the broad applicability of MFCs, collaboration could 

provide synergy in bringing MFC capabilities to fruition. The following website provides an overview of research groups currently investigating MFCs: http://www.microbialfuelcell.org.
Expeditionary

Expeditionary

Expeditionary

Facilities

Facilities

Permanent

Permanent

Permanent

Wastewater treatment Diplomacy

Economic development Provide infrastructure in remote or devastated locations

Reduce energy/water resource conicts

Aircraft latrine

Ships

Man-portable

Vehicles

Ground

Power generation

Electronics Air & space

At Sea

Cantonment

Individual/Small-unit expeditions Waste disposal

At Sea

At Sea

Water generation/recycling

Air Reduce improvised

explosive device risk Ground

Sea

Reduce throughput onlines of communications

Meet energy/water goals

Reduce vulnerability of criticalinfrastructure

Wastewater treatment

Power generation

Sanitation and waste disposal

Water generation/recycling

Reduce vulnerability of criticalinfrastructure

Reduce vulnerability of criticalinfrastructure

Perform key function of government:protect people

Relieve taxed power grid of brownouts

Provide clean energy alternatives

Reduce vulnerability to single-pointfailures

Reduce water and energy resourcedependency

Improve the nation’s “green” statusLeave a smaller ecological footprint

Improve energy and water conservationand renewability

Reduce oil dependenceReduce pollution Livestock industry

Farming industry

Food industry

Dispose of waste

Generate power at remote locations

Water source

Provide options for aordable housing

Reduce vulnerability of criticalinfrastructure

Wastewater treatment

Treat industrial waste streams

Power generation

Waste disposal

Water generation/recycling

Meet energy and water conservation goals

All state/federal agencies that havefacilities

Local Municipalities

Manufacturers

Department of Defense

Department of State

Department of Energy

Department of Agriculture

Department of Transportation

National Park Service

Nongovernmental Organizations

Private Citizens & Businesses

Department of Housing and UrbanDevelopment

Department of Homeland Security

Environmental Protection Agency

Profit from power/water generated

Microbial Fuel Cell Applications

Build fuel-efficient vehicles

Construct clean facilities in remotelocations without infrastructure

Refugee camps

Economic development

Humanitarian relief

Residences

Oces
Appendix H

Microbial Fuel Cell Relevance Tree

Appendix I

Competing and Complementary Microbial Fuel Cell 

Technologies Biofuels and Biomass

Microbial fuel cells(MFC) are not fed by biofuels or biomass. They 

can digest organic materials, some of which could be called biomass, 

but the primary purpose of an MFC is to treat wastewater and capture 

electrons as microbes digest the carbon-rich fuels. While tailored 

MFCs could probably digest harvested biomass, they are meant to 

dispose of organic waste rather than create demand for plant life to be 

used as fuels. In addition, unlike biofuels, MFCs do not convert biological material into synthetic fuels or gas to be used to fuel other 

systems such as vehicles. MFCs directly convert nuisance waste into 

useable power.

Hydrogen Fuel Cells

MFCs are not the same as hydrogen fuel cells, though the technologies have parallel components. The basic setup of hydrogen fuel cells 

and MFCs is the same, but the fuels and catalysts are different. Hydrogen fuel cells must have hydrogen fuel, which is costly to produce and 

uses more energy to create than the fuel cell can output. In hydrogen 

fuel cells, platinum (which is also expensive), rather than microbes, 

serves as a catalyst to split the molecule and harvest the electrons. Both 

technologies consume fuel, which differentiates them from batteries, 

but the consumable fuels and the reaction catalysts are different.

Protein-Based (or Enzyme-Based) Fuel Cells

MFCs are not protein- or enzyme-based fuel cells. Both are biological fuel cells, but enzyme-based fuel cells use purified enzymes 

from reduction and oxidation reactions, rather than complete microbial cells, as the catalysts. Both technologies have characteristics that 

allow them to fill different niches. The microbial catalysts in the MFC 

could theoretically be sustained forever as they regenerate themselves. Different organisms could also be combined to allow fuel flexibility, which would be highly valued for ground applications. Unlike 
236 │ APPENDIx I

microbes, enzymes could theoretically allow more complete electron 

harvesting since living microbes consume some of the chemical energy 

to survive and reproduce. Enzyme fuel cells, therefore, could potentially be a more dense power source more suitable to air and space 

vehicle applications.1

Solar Power

MFCs are not solar power. They do not use photovoltaics, spacebased power vectoring, or solar thermal energy. MFCs are a good 

candidate, however, to couple with solar power to fill existing limitations. The USAF already has prototype expeditionary, flexible facilities with integrated photovoltaics.2

Wind Power

MFCs are obviously not wind power. MFCs, however, are a good 

candidate to couple with wind power to fill existing limitations.

Desalination Plants

MFCs are not desalination plants, and they do not replace the reverse 

osmosis water purification unit (ROWPU) that the USAF currently 

uses in expeditionary settings. MFCs can operate in salt water to produce energy (often called sediment batteries), but they will not convert salt water to potable water because the microbes metabolize 

carbon-based compounds, not salt.3

Notes

1. These ideas concerning differences and potential applications of the different 

types of biological fuels cells came from Maj Jennifer Gresham (Air Force Office of 

Scientific Research), phone interview with the author, 16 November 2007.

2. Keith, “BEAR Base Solar Power System.”

3. Reimers et al., “Microbial Fuel Cell Energy.”
Appendix J

Key Microbial Fuel Cell Capabilities and Challenges

Capabilities Challenges

Within 48 hours, enables secure, basic 

ground services (water, electricity, and waste disposal) apart 

from the vulnerable infrastructure network, at both permanent 

and expeditionary locations, in a 

clean and efficient manner

Eliminates need for fuel and water 

to flow through LOCs (reduces 

risks/vulnerabilities/costs)

Reduces water requirement by at 

least 70 percent

Sanitarily disposes of 100 percent 

of sewage and other carbon-rich 

waste

Reduces water requirement by at 

least 70 percent

Generates 600+ W of power per 

person—25 percent of an expedi- tionary base power requirement

For a 150,000-person deployment

•  Saves 2 million gallons/day

of water

•  Saves 180,000 gallons/day

of fuel

•  Saves $50 million/day in

fuel operating costs (fuel 

price plus transport cost)

Prevents natural resource conflicts

Generates power with no heat/

noise

Sufficient waste volumes

Microbe vulnerability

Social acceptance

Reluctance to invest in facility 

technologies

Resistance from utility and con- struction industry

Timeline to convert homeland 

infrastructure

Must be coupled with demandreducing technologies (energy 

and water

Appendix K

Basic Cost Analysis

This is a basic cost analysis for a 1,100-person expeditionary base 

and includes potential savings in both electrical power and water 

with implementation of efficient MFC systems.

Electrical Power

Table K.1. Organic power sources at 1,100-person expeditionary base

Potential Power Source MMBTUa/dayb ~kWc

Black/Gray Water 2+ 30

Food Waste 4+ 50

Paper/Cardboard 40 480

Wood 10 120

Total 56 680

a Million British thermal units

b Waste characterizations for “00-Staff, 50-Hospital Bed Bare 

Bases” were provided in tables labeled “Battelle Report” and “ACC/

WMO Report” from Johnson and Diltz in discussion with author. c

 Kilowatts

Mobile Expeditionary Power (MEP)-12A Generator1

Rated capacity: 750 kW

Actual output capacity: 625 kW

Fuel consumption rate: 1,320 gallons per day (568 watts [W]/gal/day)

Cost: $165,000

Weight: 25,000 pounds

Expeditionary Base Power Planning Factor

2.7 kW per person2

 (four MEP-12s/1,100 people)

MFCs, therefore, could supply about 25 percent of the required 

base power and replace one of the four MEP-12A generators at a 

1,100-person location if 90 percent of the waste’s potential energy 

could be captured.
240 │ APPENDIx K

Fuel Costs (per gallon)

Standard cost: $3.043

Delivered cost via USAF tanker: $52.504

Delivered cost (conservative) to remote operating location: $3005

Amount Saved Daily by Substituting an MFC for One MEP-12A

Standard cost: $3.04/gal x 1,320 gal/day = $4K/day

Cost for fuel delivered via USAF: $52.50 x 1,320 gal/day = $69K/day

Cost for fuel delivered to a remote operating location: $300 x 1,320 

gal/day = $400K/day

Cost savings for 150,000-person deployment: $50M/day

Amount Saved Daily by Substituting Gray/Black Water Only for 

30 kW of Power

Gallons of fuel saved: 30 kW ÷ 568 W/gal/day = 50 gal/day

Standard cost: $3.04/gal x 50 gal/day = $150/day

Cost for fuel delivered via USAF: $52.50 x 50 gal/day = $2.5K/day

Cost for fuel delivered to a remote operating location: $300 x 50 

gal/day = $15K/day

Water

Water use planning factor (expeditionary): 20 gal/person/day6

Water use planning factor (permanent): 50 gal/person/day7

Wastewater planning factor: 14 gal/person/day8

The typical expeditionary plan calls for wastewater disposal via 

evaporation lagoons, so 14 gal/person/day is lost via evaporation that 

could be reclaimed with MFCs.

Water savings percentage: 14 gal/person/day ÷ 20 gal/person/day 

= 70 percent

Total water saved/day for a 1,100 person base: 14 gal/person/day x 

1,100 people = 15K gal/day

Literature Estimates

Dr. Bruce Logan estimates that “this system would produce 51 

kilowatts on the waste from 100,000 people.”9

 Logan’s calculation includes only gray water and black water, and he predicts 0.5 W/person.
APPENDIx K │ 241

Notes

1. Air Force Handbook 10-222, vol. 10, Guide to Harvest Falcon; and vol. 2, Guide 

to Bare Base Assets, 34.

2. Air Force Handbook 10-222, vol. 10, Guide to Harvest Falcon; and vol. 2, Guide 

to Bare Base Assets, 75.

3. Grant, “Surging Oil Prices.”

4. The 2001 delivered fuel cost was “$17.50 per gallon for USAF worldwide 

tanker-delivered fuel.” Since the standard cost of fuel tripled from 2001 to 2008, 

$17.50 x 3 = $52.50 is the 2008 delivered cost estimate. Defense Science Board Task 

Force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms, More Capable Warfighting, 

ES-3, 20. For additional validation of this estimate, see Col Elwood Amidon, briefing, subject: Needed Now, slide 22.

5. In 2001, the cost of delivered fuel was “hundreds of dollars per gallon for 

Army forces deep into the battlespace.” Defense Science Board Task Force on Improving Fuel Efficiency of Weapons Platforms, More Capable Warfighting, ES-3. 

Other sources suggest this number could be as high as $600 per gallon. See Dimotakis, 

Grober, and Lewis, Reducing DOD Fossil-Fuel Dependence, 20.

6. Air Force Pamphlet 10-219, vol. 5, Bare Base Conceptual Planning Guide, 87.

7. Ibid., 86.

8. Ibid., 115.

9. Biever, “Plugging into the Power of Sewage.”

Appendix L

Microbial Fuel Cells

Microbial fuel cells quad chart. (Created by the author).

Appendix M

Tech Sheet

Microbial fuel cells (MFC) convert wastewater and organic material 

to clean water and electricity. MFCs are fed by sewage, gray water 

(shower and laundry water), storm water, industrial waste, kitchen 

scraps, paper, wood, or any other type of organic matter. Through 

anaerobic metabolism at the anode, microbes restore wastewater to a 

recyclable quality and produce electrons that can be captured for power. 

The byproduct of the reaction is potentially potable-quality water.

MFCs operate on principles similar to those of hydrogen fuel cells, 

but neither hydrogen nor a sealed cathode in an oxygen-pure environment is required. Power is not the only benefit; MFCs also sanitarily dispose of organic waste and produce clean water.

Possible Concept of Operations

MFCs should be coupled with other technologies to meet 100 percent 

of the power, water, wastewater, and solid waste disposal requirements 

autonomously and covertly—without sustainment support from 

LOCs or an infrastructure network.

•

 Phase 0–V (Shape, Deter, Seize Initiative, Dominate, Stabilize, 

Enable Civil Authority)
246 │ APPENDIx m

° Establish maneuverable bases that are light, transportable, 

and modular requiring no heavy equipment to build, no utilities 

infrastructure to support, and no fuels to sustain.

° Generate power without a heat signature or noise (flight line 

operations or facility power).

• Phase 0–1 (Shape, Deter)

° Prevent conflicts sparked by water and energy resource demand

° National Security Strategy (NSS): “Expand the circle of development by opening societies and building the infrastructure 

of democracy.”1

° NSS: “Ignite a new era of global economic growth through 

free markets and free trade,” which includes “secure, clean energy 

development.”2

• Phase IV–V (Stabilize, Enable Civil Authority)

° Provide water, sanitation, and power postconflict or post–

natural disaster.

° Provide essential services (remote or urban) without major 

construction or resources.

° Quickly give nascent government legitimacy by providing for 

the people’s needs.

• Homeland Defense. Reduce/eliminate risk associated with critical 

nodes of vulnerability in both the physical and cyber realms by 

distributing the infrastructure network (power grid, water, and 

sewage); threat could be from enemy, natural disaster, or resource 

shortage.

Capabilities

• Within 48 hours, enables basic ground services (water, electricity, 

and waste disposal) apart from the vulnerable infrastructure network in a clean and efficient manner.

• Eliminates need for fuel and water to flow through LOCs (reduces 

risks/vulnerabilities/costs).
• Sanitarily disposes of 100 percent of sewage and other carbonrich waste.

• Reduces water requirement by at least 70 percent.

• Generates 600+ W of power per person—25 percent of an expeditionary base power requirement.

• For a 150,000-person deployment

° Saves 2 million gallons/day of water.

° Saves 180,000 gallons/day of fuel.

° Saves $50 million/day in fuel operating costs (fuel price plus 

transport cost).

Key Enabling Technologies

Enabling Technology TRL Maturity

Portable autonomous ground power systems (5.2.3.4) 3 2015

High-energy density fuel/material—DC (4.2.2.6) 5 2012

High-capacity, multiple-cycle, distributed power storage 

technology 3 2015

Nanotechnology (membranes and nanowires) 2 2018

Biotechnology (microbe behavior and biofilms) 2 2018

Microbial fuel cells 2 2020

Notes

1. Bush, National Security Strategy, 31.

2. Ibid., 30.

APPENDIx m │ 247

Abbreviations

3-D three-dimensional

ABM antiballistic missile

ACIA Arctic Climate Impact Assessment

ACSC Air Command and Staff College

AEPS Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy

AFDD Air Force doctrine document

AFOTTP Air Force operational tactics, techniques, 

 and procedures

AFRL Air Force Research Lab

ANWR Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

AOC air operations center

AOC-WS Air and Space Operations Center Weapon

 System

AON Arctic Observation Network

ASAT antisatellite

AU Air University

BTL biomass to liquid

C Celsius

C2 command and control

C4ISR command, control, communication, computer, 

 intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance

CARA Circum-Arctic Research Appraisal

CIA Central Intelligence Agency

CLCS Commission on the Limits of the Continental 

 Shelf

cm centimeter

CONOPS concept of operations

COPUOS Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space

CSIS Center for Strategic and International Studies

CTL coal to liquid

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DOD Department of Defense

DODD DOD directive

DOE Department of Energy

DOS Department of State

EBO effects-based operations

EIA Energy Information Administration
250 │ Abbreviations

EMP electromagnetic pulse

EO Executive Outcomes

EU European Union

F Fahrenheit

FG07 Future Capabilities Game 2007

FID foreign internal defense

FT Fischer-Tropsch

FTR Fuels Technical Review

GAO Government Accountability Office

GBN Global Business Network

GCC geographic combatant commander

GDP gross domestic product

GEO geosynchronous Earth orbit/ Global Environ

 ment Outlook

GPS Global Positioning System

GTL gas to liquid

HSI human-system interface

IADC Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination 

 Committee

IMO International Maritime Organization

IOP instrument of power

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPY International Polar Year

ISS International Space Station

JAOC joint air operations center

JFACC joint forces air component commander

JP joint publication

km kilometer

LEO low Earth orbit

LOC line of communications

MEC microbial electrolysis cell

MEO medium Earth orbit

MEP mobile electric power

MFC microbial fuel cell

mm millimeter

MRD mission-related debris

MRI magnetic resonance imaging

NaK number of collisions

NAS Naval Air Station

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Abbreviations │ 251

NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research

NDU National Defense University

NGO nongovernmental organization

nm nautical mile

NMS National Military Strategy

NORAD North American Aerospace Defense Command

NSF National Science Foundation

NSPD national security presidential directive

NSS National Security Strategy

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation

 and Development

OODA observe, orient, decide, and act

PMC private military company

PSD private security detail

QDR Quadrennial Defense Review

R&D research and development

RF radio frequency

RMA revolution in military affairs

ROMO range of military operations

RUF Revolutionary United Front

SA situational awareness

SAB Scientific Advisory Board

SADF South African Defense Force

SAF Singapore Armed Forces

SAS Special Air Service

SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

SOLE special operations liaison element

SSN Space Surveillance Network

SSTR stability, security, transition, and reconstruction

TADMUS Tactical Decision Making under Stress

TRA Technology Readiness Assessment

TRL technology readiness level

UN United Nations

UNCLOS UN Convention on the Law of the Sea

UNFCCC UN Framework Convention on Climate Change

UNITA National Union for the Total Independence of

 Angola

USAF US Air Force

USAFR US Air Force Reserve

USAID US Agency for International Development
252 │ Abbreviations

USARC US Arctic Research Commission

USCENTCOM US Central Command

USCGC US Coast Guard Cutter

USG US government

USGBC United States Green Building Council

USGS US Geological Survey

USSTRATCOM US Strategic Command
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ACIA (Arctic Climate Impact Assessment), 

104–5, 118

AEPS (Arctic Environmental Protection 

Strategy), 109, 118, 135

aging populations, 39, 41, 49, 52–54, 

56, 67

air operations center. See AOC

albedo, 101–2, 104

alternative energy, 8, 122, 175, 209

alternative fuels, 8–9, 194–96, 198, 200, 

203, 205, 209–10

ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge), 

111

AOC (air operations center), 5, 71, 76, 

80–83, 85, 88–92, 214

Arctic, 5–6, 97–123, 125–36, 215

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment. See 

ACIA

Arctic environment, 106, 109, 120, 131, 

135 

Arctic Environmental Protection Strategy. 

See AEPS

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. See

ANWR

biofuel, 195, 199–201, 203, 205–6, 

208–10, 216

biomass, 175, 194, 199

biomass to liquid. See BTL

biosphere, 122, 124–25, 133, 136

Blackwater, 11–13, 15, 18, 21–22, 

24–29, 34

Boeing, 3, 11, 200, 207

BTL (biomass to liquid), 194, 198

C2 (command and control), 5, 71–92, 

214–15

CARA (Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal), 106

CENTCOM (Central Command), 23, 

26–27

Central Command. See CENTCOM.

Central Intelligence Agency. See CIA

Cheney, Richard “Dick,” 17

CIA (Central Intelligence Agency), 28, 

42–43, 127

Circum-Arctic Resource Appraisal. See

CARA

CLCS (Commission on the Limits of 

the Continental Shelf), 112, 134 

climate change, 97–98, 101, 103–7, 

119–25, 130, 132–36, 171, 215

coal to liquid. See CTL

Cold War, 11, 16–17, 22, 110–11, 114–15

collision, in space, 7, 141–45, 147–48, 

153, 155, 158–59, 215–16

command and control. See C2

Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf. See CLCS

concept of operations. See CONOPS

Conference of the Parties, 122

CONOPS (concept of operations), 

72–73 

counterinsurgency, 18, 21, 26, 30, 168

CTL (coal to liquid), 8, 194–95, 198, 

203–4, 208–9 

cyber power, 164, 166, 169, 

cyberspace, 7, 150, 152, 172, 186

DARPA (Defense Advanced Research 

Project Agency), 90, 92, 204

Defense Advanced Research Project 

Agency. See DARPA

defense contractors, 3, 13

Defense Science Board, 17, 19, 166

defense strategy, 3, 12, 20–21, 23, 34, 112

demographic trends, 42–43, 50–51, 53, 56

driving forces, of change, 7, 47–48, 56, 

142, 145, 147–48, 153, 217

DynCorp, 22, 24, 30

EBO (effects-based operations), 73, 78, 91 

ecological disruptions, 124–25

effects-based operations. See EBO

electrode, 174–75, 177, 181

electromagnetic pulse, 151

electron, 174–75, 177, 180

energy dependence, 54, 57–59, 61, 63, 64

energy insecurity, 4, 8

environmental protection, 117–21, 135

environmental security, 97, 99, 107, 

114, 121, 125, 127, 129–31, 134–36

Index
286 │ index

EO (Executive Outcomes), 13, 15, 26–27

Executive Outcomes. See EO

EU (European Union), 44, 50, 122–23, 

135, 164, 206

European Union. See EU

feedback loop, 102, 104

fertility, 39–40, 50

FID (foreign internal defense), 21, 24, 26

foreign internal defense. See FID

fossil fuel, 101, 105, 133, 166

freedom, 12, 20–22, 28–29, 34, 136, 213 

fuel cell, 7, 163, 172–76, 180, 185

fuel efficiency, 124, 167

fusion processes, 4

futures, 1, 2, 4, 9, 56–57, 142, 145, 163, 

214–15, 217

future trends, 1, 9, 68, 213

gas to liquid. See GTL

GBN (Global Business Network), 45–47, 

144–46, 154

GDP (gross domestic product), 49–50, 

62, 63

Geneva Convention, 19

GEO (geosynchronous Earth orbit), 

141

geosynchronous Earth orbit. See GEO

global aging, 40, 48–50

Global Business Network. See GBN

global warming, 5, 100–1, 103, 120, 

127, 133, 164

gross domestic product. See GDP

GTL (gas to liquid), 8, 194–95, 198, 

203–4, 207, 209

Halliburton, 3, 11, 17, 34

hardware, 3, 11, 13, 15, 25

HIS (human-system interface), 4–5, 

71–72, 80–85, 88, 90–92, 215

human dignity, 3, 12, 20–22, 28–29, 34, 

136, 213

human rights, 12, 28–30, 114

human-system interface. See HIS

hyperaging, 41, 57, 64, 66

immigrant, 41, 51–55, 58–64, 66

information processing, 5, 71–72, 75–76, 

79–80, 83–84, 86, 90, 92, 214–15

information technology, 4, 17–18, 73–75, 

82, 90, 214

instrument of power. See IOP

Interagency Arctic Research Policy 

Committee, 126

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 

Change. See IPCC

international credibility, 12, 22–23, 29, 

31–32, 34

international polar year. See IPY

investment, 54, 105, 109, 122, 163, 170, 

179–82, 184–86, 210

IOP (instrument of power), 166, 168, 

172

IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on 

Climate Change), 101, 103–5, 171

IPY (international polar year), 119, 

126–27, 133

isotherm, 100

JFACC (joint forces air component 

commander), 5, 71

joint forces air component commander. See JFACC

justice, 3, 12, 20–22, 24, 28–29, 31–32, 

34, 136, 213

KBR (Kellogg Brown and Root), 13, 

17, 24

Kellogg Brown and Root. See KBR

leading indicators, 48, 146–47, 158–59

LEO (low Earth orbit), 141, 144, 147, 

149, 151, 156–58

life expectancy, 40–41, 48

line of communications. See LOC

LOC (line of communication), 165, 

173, 181

low Earth orbit. See LEO

medium Earth orbit. See MEO 

MEO (medium Earth orbit), 141

mercenaries, 2, 3, 11, 12–16, 19, 31, 33, 

213

metacognition, 75, 87

MFC (microbial fuel cell), 7–8, 163–86, 

216

microbe, 174–75, 177

microbial fuel cell. See MFC

migration, 4, 39, 41–42, 46, 48, 51–52, 

54, 56, 66, 97

military contractors. See defense contractors
index │ 287

NASA (National Aeronautics and 

Space Administration), 77, 105, 

148, 156

National Aeronautics and Space Administration. See NASA

National Center for Atmospheric Research. See NCAR

National Security Strategy. See NSS

natural gas, 8, 42–44, 48, 54–55, 57–60, 

62–63, 65, 101, 106–7, 111, 133, 

172, 194, 198–99, 203, 206, 209

natural resources, 5, 7, 97, 115, 167, 

172

NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research), 103

networks, 4, 7, 78, 92, 155

NGO (nongovernmental organization), 169

Nisour Square, 12, 22, 29

nodes, 163, 165, 169, 176–79, 181

nongovernmental organization. See NGO

NORAD (North American Aerospace 

Defense Command), 112, 135

North American Aerospace Defense 

Command. See NORAD

NSS (National Security Strategy), 20, 

22, 98–99, 112, 136, 166, 168–69, 

170

observe, orient, decide, and act loop. 

See OODA loop

oil, 8, 27, 42, 48, 54, 57–60, 62–63, 65, 

101, 106–9, 111, 118, 124, 127, 130, 

132–33, 135, 166–67, 178, 184–85, 

193–200, 204–10, 216

OODA loop (observe, orient, decide, 

and act), 73, 75–76

Operation Iraqi Freedom, 15, 80, 83

operational transparency, 3, 178

orbital debris, 141–45, 147–50, 152–59, 

215–16

outsourcing, 2–3, 11, 16–17, 19–20

Paravant, 12, 21, 24–25, 28

peace dividend, 11, 16

PMC (private military company), 3, 

11–13, 15–35, 213–14

population, 3–4, 14, 29, 33, 39–42, 

48–53, 55–59, 61–62, 64–66, 104, 

110, 141, 143, 151, 168, 214

private military company. See PMC

privatization, 3, 11–12, 16–19, 32–33

probability, 2, 7, 143, 154–55, 170

QDR (Quadrennial Defense Review), 

20–22, 33, 167

Quadrennial Defense Review. See QDR

R&D (research and development), 3, 8, 

11, 25, 163, 170, 172, 177–84, 186, 

194, 216

range of military operations. See

ROMO

relevance tree, 1, 163–64, 176–77, 179–82

renewable energy, 166, 185 

research and development. See R&D 

revolution in military affairs. See RMA

RMA (revolution in military affairs), 

16–17

ROMO (range of military operations), 

12, 21, 26–27, 33, 186, 216

Russia, 42–44, 48–49, 55–57, 59–60, 

62–66, 100, 110, 112–16, 121, 123, 

127, 129–32, 134–35, 149, 208

SA (situational awareness), 4–5, 9, 72–73, 

78, 86–88, 90–92, 214

satellite, 7, 130, 142–43, 150–59, 215

scenario planning, 45–46, 56, 67

sea ice, 100–3, 105–7, 126

sea lanes, 5

security companies/contractors, 13, 20, 28

self-contained facilities, 164, 170, 172–73, 

175–76, 182–83, 186

shortage, 31, 123, 170–72

situational awareness. See SA

soft power, 98–99

solar power, 175¬¬–76, 182–83, 236 

space debris, 7, 141–43, 145, 147, 149–51, 

153, 156–58, 215–16

space environment, 6, 151

space technology, 7, 150, 155, 159, 215

space vulnerabilities, 7, 150, 152

sustainable deployment, 27–28, 34

sustainable development, of the Arctic, 

98–99, 105, 118–19, 129, 131 

sustainable technologies, 172, 179, 183
288 │ index

technological advances,89, 146, 150–51, 

154–55, 215

technology readiness level. See TRL 

thermohaline circulation, 102–3

tip of the spear, 13–14

TRL (technology readiness level), 176

UN (United Nations), 55, 62–63, 98, 

101, 110, 112, 116, 118–19, 121–22, 

125, 147, 149–50, 158, 171

UNCLOS (United Nations Convention 

on the Law of the Sea), 98, 116–17, 

119–20, 123, 128, 130–35

UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), 122, 133

United Nations. See UN

UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. See UNFCCC

United Nations Convention on the 

Law of the Sea. See UNCLOS

US Agency for International Development. See USAID

USAID (US Agency for International 

Development), 26, 31

USARC (US Arctic Research Commission), 109, 113, 126, 134

US Arctic Research Commission. See

USARC

USG (US government), 3, 8, 11–12, 

15–16, 22, 25–35, 113, 127, 213

US Geological Survey. See USGS

US government. See USG

USGS (US Geological Survey), 106, 

111

war-fighting capability, 12, 27, 31, 33

waste, 33, 108, 163, 165–66, 172–74, 

178, 180–83, 186, 199–200

wastewater, 163, 165, 169, 172–74, 176, 

182, 186

water, 7, 31, 33, 101–2, 104, 109, 123, 

163–79, 181–86, 199, 203, 207, 216

Western Europe, 3–4, 39–46, 48–57, 

59–62, 64–68, 214