10A-i

APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS 

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

10A.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 10A-1

10A.2 STANDARDS-CASE MARKET-SHARE MATRICES ..................................... 10A-1

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 10A.2.1 Standards-Case Market-Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10 

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) ........................................................ 10A-1
10A-1

APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANALYSIS 

10A.1 INTRODUCTION 

In this appendix, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) presents the standards-case 

market-share matrix for the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity scenario. As discussed in 

Chapter 10, in the 10 percent lumen increase scenario, DOE assumes that a portion of residential 

IRL consumers will buy a more efficacious lamp at the same or higher wattage as they do in the 

base case. This incorporation of non-energy-saving lamp designs results in an overall higher 

lumen output per IRL in the residential sector. To quantify the percentage of consumers that 

purchase same-wattage lamp designs, DOE assumes that the average initial lumen output of IRL 

in the standards case is 10 percent higher than that of the base case. Under this assumption, 

shipment forecasts and cumulative shipment impacts in the residential 10 percent lumen increase 

sensitivity are very similar to the Roll-up, BR Product Substitution scenario, which is shown in 

chapter 10 of the TSD. Appendix 5A, 6A, and 7A contain additional engineering, energy 

consumption, and price results related to these sensitivity scenarios. 

10A.2 STANDARDS-CASE MARKET-SHARE MATRICES 

DOE constructed market-share matrices to characterize shipments of lamps in the 

standards case. Table 10A.2.1 displays the residential standards-case market-share matrix in the 

10 percent lumen increase sensitivity. As seen in the table below, in this sensitivity scenario, 

DOE assumes that in the standards case a portion of IRL consumers purchase same-wattage or 

higher-wattage lamp designs. 

Table 10A.2.1 Standards-Case Market-Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10 

Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity) 

Stock in 

2011* 

Stock in 

2013** 

Stock in 

TSL Lamp Design 2042 Installed 

Lamp Price % % %

90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2500 hrs, Halogen 5.33 41 41 

75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2500 hrs, Halogen 5.33 32 32 

Base Case 

50W, 12.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 4.70 27 27 

Total 100 100 

90W, 15.5lm/w, 2500hrs, Improved Halogen 6.31 41 41 

75W, 14.7lm/w, 2500hrs, Improved Halogen 6.31 32 32 

50W, 13.2lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 5.68 23 23 

TSL 1 

65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 4 4 

Total 100 100

90W, 16.3lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.96 12 12 

69W, 15.3lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.96 7 7 

88W, 16.7lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.96 2 2 

50W, 13.9lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.33 6 6 

79W, 16.6lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.78 29 29 

66W, 15.9lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.78 13 13 

TSL 2 

79W, 16.6lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.78 9 9 
10A-2

45W, 14lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.15 5 5 

50W, 14.4lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.15 9 9 

65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 6 6 

Total 100 100 

70W, 18lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.96 31 31 

100W, 20.3lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.96 10 10 

60W, 17.5lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.96 25 25 

80W, 18.8lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 7.96 7 7 

42W, 14.8lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.33 13 13 

50W, 16.5lm/w, 4000hrs, HIR 6.33 7 7 

65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 7 7 

TSL 3 

Total 100 100 

66W, 19.8lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 34 34 

90W, 22.6lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 7 7 

55W, 19.1lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 29 29 

90W, 22.6lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 3 3 

40W, 17lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 7.70 9 9 

50W, 18lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved HIR 7.70 4 4 

65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 14 14 

TSL 4 

Total 100 100 

60W, 21lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 33 33 

90W, 24.6lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 8 8 

52W, 20.3lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 29 29 

83W, 24.5lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 3 3 

40W, 19.1lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.29 7 7 

50W, 20.3lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.29 3 3 

65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 16 16 

TSL 5 

Total 100 100 

*Base-case input only. 

**Standards-case input only.