Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners

and Heat Pumps

Introduction

Bryan Berringer

(bryan.berringer@ee.doe.gov)

U.S. Department of Energy

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners 6

and Heat Pumps o

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

I ' 

Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps 

Introduction 

Bryan Berringer 

(bryan. berringer@ee.doe.gov) 

u.s. Department of Energy 

u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps 

. September 12,2001 

." 

"-.) 

a 

a 

"-.) . I 

a 

a 

(Jl 

"-.) 

a 
t Energy Policy & Conservation

if Act (EPCA) Ruirements

EPCA, Pub. L. 94-163, as amended by the Energy Policy Act of 1992

(EPACT), Pub. L. 102-486, establishes energy efficiency standards for

certain commercial heating and air conditioning equipment which includes

commercial unitary air conditioners and heat pumps

The efficiency requirements in the statute correspond to the levels in

ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1 as in effect on October 24, 1992

If the efficiency levels in ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 are amended, the

Secretary of Energy must establish an amended standard for such

equipment at the new ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 minimum level, unless (s)he

determines, through a rulemaking supported by clear and convincing

evidence, that a more stringent standard is technologically feasible and

economically justified and would result in significant additional energy

conservation. EPCA section 342 (a)(6)(A), 42 U.S.C. 6313 (a)(6)(A)

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Energy Policy & Conservation 

Act (EP£9~)~~~quirements 

• EPCA, Pub. L. 94-163, as amended by the Energy Policy Act of 1992 

(EPACT), Pub. L. 102-486, establishes energy efficiency standards for 

certain commercial heating and air conditioning equipment which includes 

commercial unitary air conditioners and heat pumps 

• The efficiency requirements in the statute correspond to the levels in 

ASHRAE/IESNA Standard 90.1 as in effect on October 24, 1992 

• If the efficiency levels in ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 are amended, the 

Secretary of Energy must establish an amended standard for such 

equipment at the new ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 minimum level, unless (s)he 

determines, through a rulemaking supported by clear and convincing 

evidence, that a more stringent standard is technologically feasible and 

economically justified and would result in significant additional energy 

conservation. EPCA section 342 (a)(6)(A), 42 U.S.C. 6313 (a)(6)(A) 

1 
EPCA Requirements (Con't)

* Small and Large Commercial Package Air Conditioning

and Heating Equipment are covered products. §342

EPCA set the initial standards. §342(a)

Product Category/Product Subcategory Efficiency Level

EPCA ASHRAE 90.1-1999

Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment/

> 65 kBtu/h and <135 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central AC, HP EER: 8.9 EER: 10.3,

COP: 3 COP: 3.2

Large Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment/

2 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central AC EER: 8.5 EER: 9.7

2 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central HP EER: 8.5 EER: 9.3,

COP: 2.9 COP: 3.1

2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

EPCA Requirements (Con't) ____________ !P.!. !!lIs~,.:. ~~ . .iJf.;'.p.\':.:':.,.... ":" 

• Small and Large Commercial Package Air Conditioning 

and Heating Equipment are covered products. §342 

• EPCA set the initial standards. §342(a) 

Product Category/Product Subcategory 

Small Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment! 

~ 65 kBtu/h and <135 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central AC, HP 

Large Commercial Packaged Air Conditioning and Heating Equipment! 

~ 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central AC 

~ 135 kBtu/h and <240 kBtu/h, Air-Cooled, Central HP 

Efficiency Level 

EPCA ASHRAE 90.1-1999 

EER: 8.9 

COP: 3 

EER: 8.5 

EER: 8.5 

EER: 10.3, 

COP: 3.2 

EER: 9.7 

EER: 9.3, 

COP: 2.9 COP: 3.1 

2 
Rulemaking Status

FY 2000 - Assigned a high priority

January 12, 2001 - Federal Register notice

announced DOE would evaluate whether

standards higher than ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1

are justified

May 2001 - National Energy Policy (NEP)

report recommended support for the appliance

standards program for covered products, setting

higher standards where technologically feasible

and economically justified

3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

• FY 2000 - Assigned a high priority 

, • January 12, 200 1 - Federal Register notice 

announced DOE would·evaluate whether 

standards higher than ASHRAE/IESNA 90.1 

are justified 

I •• May 2001 - National Energy Policy (NEP) 

report recommended support for the appliance 

standards program for covered products, setting 

higher standards where technologically feasible 

and economically justified 

3 
Standards Setting Process

hial , Timeline

July

2001

Stakeholder Participation

Pror Activitiest -. '

Figure 1. Principal procedural steps in the commercial unitary air-conditioner

and heat pump standards sauemakntting

4

1989 1992 1999q 201 02 00 0020

Figure 1. Prin~~~~,c ipAl prcdrlsesI'h omrca ntr i-odtoe

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

1989 

Standards Setting Process 

Timeline 

July 

2001 

Stakeholder Participation 

'. prl?~·A.~!iJil~~i:f·;-; ',., 

s;fiii;j~1i~I~~~~J~~~»~~(~·~.~~I~~a~'~~ 

l(---~ 

1992 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008 

Figure 1. Principal procedural steps Inthe commercial unitary air-conditioner 

and heat pump standards setting process 

4 
Analytical Framework

Commercial Unitary A/C and HP

Approaches Key-Inputs Analysis Key-Outputs

inoustry Rem=_i . [' i ian r mnsn/ Preduce _

Market & Technology

, ua ltlv Ml Airit-.lde /Fim nenta r - . Assessment .

Terf-,Do n Analysis gnujivm Eienit n il Praote .. Pirtslla M, __ ta _

al

I LhI IScreening Analysis A=PuRi neni Siaban Modaels -

_L Mandacturing e| 1

E,.iq.dr~trwd t i j 5 E- ffi'cimfl^f ance ftI_ Engineering , . ........--- - Analyss _

rI I-----L Empoy^men

F|NA LR ULlE EnCTjsis 5 , 

; i ,; M intensn>«JScnviecCaat ' £ 

Modelsu ; . * :Lifrycle priceshJ-est-J-- Cost and Payback , Lfc.. NOttx ti

1 . ij |___inaaitbn e«ai ! 5^ . , .Ena«yi« ng,

Esrec __ j i - E I . ____ * tNt PrFCent VYlee*

Hitelorichb snt, I Oe Etitcii Impats Analysis

F roduct saturtion i * Eiciency

*VoluntryinHittives j distribution f

ANOPR . . _i . T 

Revised Engineering, LCC.,

~ and NES Analyses . - 1

:,' . ! i - i * Pya¢ac( CIS tbuen

: ~ i O1 ~-ah IcsCi Consumere Oisl c j i OBno gfaphlcs -nrrorIpacts _ 

i ; i -- -- 5-:--: : :::::Manuftictur Prices a --

' ' ....-... .....-- ........-.....-....... ,.. : .... .. Manufacturer hirnd y Cas-o..w with Un inlct

Averages : .. . __ . .... Impact Analysis C

~

s o s l *t Standan1 Levl Cases,

* Effidency Diasrution

for all Cases

Utlii1oadfactcrt . . .. ·. *... Utility Impacts | UtIhy RevenueLossm

Emosson rates.." , (NEMS) 

Environmental Emissions

Analysis (NEMS--

Employment

Impacts ..

NOPR , I

FINAL RULE Revised Analysis _

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Analytical Framework 

Commercial Unitary Ale and HP 

Approaches 

Effx:jmcv:lntl Mprti'''' "f..Jj 

i j 

, 

, 

i 

Q. 

:0 

~ 

~ ''III 

Key-Inputs 

~M~Nt~m~Sy~NDYuu __________ ~ __ ~_t_-U_:~~I ... ~ __ ~ .. 

Emed ECC"ss ~ 

r·········_···_·····: 

i._. ___ .. ; I 

: I 

Analysis 

Market & T eclYloiogy 

Assessment 

Screening Analysis 

J 

Key-Outputs 

• Pe'jboc:ll Ilisbil>Ullan 

, • Ue-cyde OISII1IlutiorI 

.. En "'VI ....... IIS 

• Net Pr ..... nt V .... es fsrcq"l ~ , .. M"'od..,d"'.'--____________ -+-+---i-__ ... :. Shipmen~ ... :c::e,~~;;~:::::: .. ~ .. • Hililaricll1l1;pmenls '.' Elftcjen~ " 

• Pa'jb.c:11 

• Proca.oCl s-lIIrllion , : -, 

• Vc&lntery inijiatiYH ! dislllDullon . 

i 

ANOPR 

NOPR 

FINAL RULE 

Revised Engineering, LCC. 

'--__ and_N_E_s_t.,...~-na-lys_es---· .. -·--·l • Pa)IlaCk Clmbutlon 

DJ~--~~--~---·~u~~~~~~~·S®~~~~. 

t 

Revised Analysis 

, 

, 

: ~CaSh-towwif'l ~ 

, Emissions 

., - -
Discussion Topics

Market and Technology Assessment

- Product Classes

- Baseline

Screening Analysis

Engineering Analysis

- Equipment Efficiency and Cost Analysis

- Building Energy Use and Electric Load Shape

Characterization

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Discussion Topics .... 1IiiIiiiiii .... _______ .. ~ .. . ,~;,.~i:'~,o;m.;··'::··;:'?,' .. ' '. ' 

• Market and Technology Assessment , 

- Product Classes 

- Baseline 

• Screening Analysis 

' •. Engineering Analysis 

• ' I - Equipment Efficiency and Cost Analysis 

- Building Energy Use and Electric Load Shape 

Characterization 

6 
Discussion Topics (Cont'd)

Other Analyses

- Life-Cycle Cost Analysis

- Consumer Sub-group Analysis

- National Energy Saving and Net Present

Value Analysis

- Manufacturer Impact Analysis

- Employment Impact Analysis

- Utility Impact Analysis

- Environmental Analysis

7

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Discussion Topics (Cont'd) . ...• '1 .•.. : .... "ftf:l:·~~:tr~"~"?~:r·;:; ~ .. :.[.' : :'>;" : ..... : ..' . 

• Other Analyses 

- Life-Cycle Cost Analysis 

- Consumer Sub-group Analysis 

- National Energy Saving and Net Present 

Value Analysis 

- Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

- Employment Impact Analysis 

- Utility Impact Analysis 

- Environmental Analysis 

7 
*i; Next Steps Srl. iT.H..:.... :,.:... - .

* Workshop comments (due 10/12/01)

* Data collection

* Determine whether to adopt ASHRAE/IESNA

90.1 levels or initiate a standards rulemaking

- Possible rulemaking schedule

* ANOPR (01/03)

* NOPR (01/04)

* Final Rule (08/04)

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

, I 

I " 

Next Steps ~ • .'. .,"..:.." 1, • ~ • ~~7::·;·::.~:·:·~·.~.:->:.· : .. 

• Workshop comments (due 1 0/12/01 ) 

• Datacollection 

• Determine whether to adopt ASHRAE/IESNA 

90.1 levels or initiate a standards rulemaking 

- Possible rulemaking schedule 

• ANOPR'(Ol/03) 

• NOPR (01/04) 

• Final Rule (08/04) 

8 
Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT

Mark Kendall

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com)

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

- • • •• ~I. ':,: " \ 

MARKET AND TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT 

, . 

, 

Mark Kendall 

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com) 

.Arthur D. Little, Inc. 

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
Market Assessment · '3! Overview

The information collected during the Market and Technology

Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses.

Screening Analysis

Market and

Technology National Energy Savings

Assessment _______ Manufacturer Impact

Analysis

Firms and industry structure

Product characteristics

Historical shipments

Non-regulatory incentives

Regional differences

ItI.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Market Assessment 

Overview 

The information collected during the Market and Technology 

Assessment is fundamental to several downstream analyses. 

Market and 

Technology 

Assessment 

Screening Analysis 

National Energy Savings 

Manufacturer Impact 

Analysis 

Firms and industry structure 

Product characteristics 

Historical shipments 

Non-regulatory incentives 

Regional differences 

III.B. Market Alless8nt 083001 
Market Assessment

Information Sources

The Department is currently gathering information from the

The Department is currently gathering information from the

following sources:

US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey,

1992, 1995, and 1999

Product Technical and Sales Literature

US Census Current Industrial Reports

SEC 10-K Annual Reports

ARI Statistical Profile, 2000

ARI Large Unitary Products Directory

California Energy Commission database

What additional sources should the Department consider?

Are the stakeholders willing to provide more detailed

information?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

, , 

Market Assessment 

I nformation Sou rces 

The Department is currently gathering information from the 

following sources: 

US DOE Commercial Building Energy Consumption Survey, 

1992, 1995, and 1999 

Product Technical and Sales Literature 

US Census Current Industrial Reports 

SEC 10-K Annual Reports 

ARI Statistical Profile, 2000 

ARI Large Unitary Products Directory 

California Energy Commission database 

What additional sources should the Department consider? 

Are the stakeholders willing to provide more detailed 

information? 

III.B. Market Aallllent 083001 2 
·- Market Assessment

Specific Topics

The market assessment raises several important questions.

* Should the Department consider regional differences in

product distribution, use, or installation? If so, which ones?

* What assumptions regarding the impact of non-regulatory initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE 90. 1-1999, Energy Star, utility rebates) should DOE use in the analysis?

* Are there any impending changes in the market of which the

Department should be aware?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Market Assessment 

Specific Topics 

The market assessment raises several important questions. 

• Should the Department consider regional differences in 

product distribution,· use, or installation? If so, which ones? 

• What assumptions regarding the impact of non-regulatory 

initiatives (e.g. ASHRAE 90. 1-1999, Energy Star, utility 

rebates) should DOE use in the analysis? 

• Are there. any impending changes in the market of which the 

Department should be aware? 

III.B. Market AII ... ent 083001 3 
i j Product Classes

Ah r Proposed Product Classes

Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be

established in order to accommodate differences in product

efficiency and to preserve consumer utility.

* Are the following classes appropriate?

- AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) - AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) - Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) - Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr)

* Are additional classes warranted based on unique

features that impact energy use (e.g. heat recovery) or

utility (e.g. dehumidification)?

III.B. Market Assessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Product Classes 

Proposed Product Classes 

Separate classes of air conditioners and heat pumps can be 

established in order to accommodate differences in product 

efficiency and to preserve consumer utility_ 

• Are the following classes appropriate? 

• 

AC (cooling-only) (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) 

AC (cooling-only) (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) 

Heat Pump (>=65 and <135 kBtu/hr) 

Heat Pump (>=135 and <=240 kBtu/hr) 

.Are additional classes warranted based on unique 

features that impact energy use (e.g. heat recovery) or 

utility (e.g. dehumidification)? 

III.B. Market Assallent 083001 4 
Ep Baseline Models

5: rOverview

The Department defines baseline model characteristics to serve

as the basis, for the analysis.

* Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features

* Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency product in each product class

* Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are

intended to represent the "typical" product

111.B. Market Assesent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

" , 

Baseline Models 

Overview 

The Department defi,nes baseline model characteristics to serve 

as the basis' for the analysis. 

• Includes capacity, configuration, efficiency, and features 

• Usually based on the most commonly sold minimum efficiency 

product in each product class 

• Serves as the basis for cost and performance estimates that are 

intended to represent the ''typical'' product 

III.B. Merket AII.llant 083001 5 
Overview

,~~~ Basel~;~P~·F~;:~"ine M..odls:

Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests

using the following characteristics to define baseline air

conditioners and heat pumps for the analysis.

Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems)

<1 35kBtu/hr: >=1 35kBtu/hr:

7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP

8.0 IPLV 8.0 IPLV

single compressor dual compressors

* Are these features/levels appropriate? Should other features be

added?

* Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed

within a class?

* Should comparable analysis be performed for other product types

(e.g. split systems, or systems without integral gas heat)?

III.B. Market Asessent 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Baseline Models 

Overview 

Based on the market assessment, the Department suggests 

using the following characteristics to define baseline air 

conditioners and heat pumps for the analysis. 

Packaged, year-round (for cooling-only systems) 

< 135kBtu/h r: 

7.5 tons, 8.9 EER, 3.0 COP 

8.0IPLV 

single compressor 

>=135kBtu/hr: 

15 tons, 8.5 EER, 2.9 COP 

B.O IPLV 

dual compressors 

• Are these features/levels appropriate? Should other features be 

added? 

• Are multiple baseline units (e.g. more than one capacity) needed 

within a class? 

• Should comparable analysis be performed for other product types 

(e.g. split systems, or systems without integral gas heat)? 

III.B. Market Aaoellent 083001 6 
,I- I.-.^

Backup slides

,~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

slides 
Baseline Models

Product Capacity (Input Rating)

Covera4- ie6iciency range varies considerably by

cap co-and '.u manufacturer.

-~ Should this cause

,Uni~,·; %.-_--..~-the Department to

DirectorWnter200 rely less on actual

All commercial unitary -

equipment shown.

III.B. Market Assessent 083001 l~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

, I 

Baseline Models 

Product Capacity (Input Rating) 

iency range varies considerably by 

ca 

EER 

, Source: ARI Large 

Unitary Equipment 

Directory Winter 2000 

All commercial unitary 

equipment shown. 

d manufacturer. 

I 

I Should this cause 

the Department to 

rely less on actual 

I 

equipment data and 

I more on modeling? 

III.B. Market Aaaellent 083001 8 
j-p, Baseline Models

J Product Efficiency

I Only a few manufacturers produce split systems >= 135kBTU/hr,

and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER.

' I - .,.........

/L ,,..,./., -, . . - .. : .. - - ...

. /./X/0.---:---. 7A/. . ----.. _..-... , ...--... . ..... -- Is this relatively

low efficiency

limit due to

8 ~~~~~~~~~~tDirectory 5 Winter -----. 2000ehiaor · b.7 consider How should nthe these

8.59.1~~~ ~10

03001 consider these 9

Source: ARI Large EER 9.3 ~ .~ Unitary Equipment 9.5

Directory Winter 2000 9.6

9.8

11I.B. Market Assessnt 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

~Baseline Modeis 

. Product Efficiency 

.rI;i~-(J1=:~~:,~ .. . .""AEg,~:,,_g~~_:__ ... un ..... 

I Only a few manufacturers produce split systems >= 135kBTU/hr, 

: and the most efficient system attains only 10 EER. 

8.5 

8.7 

"'1-'·,. 

8.9 

9 

9.2 

Source: ARI Large EER 

Unitary Equipment 

Directory Winter 2000 

• 

• 

9.5 

9.6 

10 

III.B. Market Alsellent 083001 

Is this relatively 

low efficiency 

limit due to 

technical or 

market factors? 

How should the 

Department 

consider these 

factors in this 

rulemaking? 

9 
Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

Screening Analysis

David Winiarski

(david.winiarski@pnl. gov)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Commercial Air Condition~rs and Heat Pumps 

Screening Analysis 

David Winiarski 

(david. winiarski@pnl.gov) 

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 

u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
-g Screening Analysis Overview

The Screening Analysis is used to eliminate from further

analysis those options or efficiency levels that are not

sufficiently developed or have characteristics that make them

technologically unsuitable for consideration in the rulemaking.

Final design options included must satisfy the following criteria.

Technological feasibility Practicability to manufacture,

install, and service

Impacts on health or safety Impacts on product utility or

availability

II1-C- 2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Screening Analysis 

Overview 

'" .' : I' . ,. f:> '~~'. ,0 ! # 

The Screening Analysis is used to eliminate from further 

analysis those options or efficiency levels that are not 

. sufficiently developed or have characteristics that make them 

technologically unsuitable for consideration in the rulemaking. 

Final design options included must satisfy the following criteria: 

Technological feasibility Practicability to manufacture, 

install, and service 

Impacts on healt,h or safety Impacts on product utility or 

availability 

UI-C- 2 
ZN Screening Analysis

Do1 DOE Requests for Stakeholder Input

Should the Department consider other factors in developing its

list of potential design options? For example, should increases

in EER be limited by the latent heat removal capability of the

equipment in order to make the product suitable for high humidity areas of the country?

What assumptions should the Department make regarding design for specific capacities of equipment? How should the

Department address capacity control measures ?

Are there other technology choices that should be added to

those listed in the framework document

III-C- 3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

, ' 

Screening Analysis' . DOE Requests for Stakeholder Input 

"., .. ,". 

• Should.the Department consider other factors in developing its 

list of potential design options? For example, should increases 

in EER be limited by the latent heat removal capability of the 

eq~ipment in order to make the product suitable for high 

humidity areas of the country? 

.• What assumptions should the Department make regarding 

,. design for specific capacities of equipment? How should the 

., Department address capacity control measures? 

• Are there other technology choices that should be added to 

those lis'ted in the framework document 

III-C- 3 
ft

BACKUP SLIDES

Screening Analysis

III-C- 4

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

BACKUP SLIDES 

Screening Analysis , , 

III-C· 4 
' . Screening Analysis

Initial Technology Choice Considerations

Evaporator and condenser coils with * Air-foil or backward-curved

larger heat-exchanger area * centrifugal fans *

'o "Deep coil" or micro-channel * Synchronous (toothed) belts or

evaporator coils coils direct drive fans *

* Inverter-driven, variable-speed · Low pressure-loss filters and Low pressur s findoor or condenser compressors cooling coils c High-efficiency propeller condenser * High efficiency motors * fans

* High efficiency compressors, e.g. * High-side solenoid valve or

scrolls or "twin-single" technology * discharge line check-valve to

'.' Multiple compressors * minimize pressure equalization

* Inverter-driven, variable-speed * Heat-pipes (for high latent loads)*

compressors* * Double-skin, high-albedo cabinets*

* Thermal expansion valves (TXV) * Sub-coolers

· Electronic expansion valves Demand-controlled ventilation

strategy *

* Currently used in commercial unitary and/or split AC/HP products

III-C- 5

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Screening Analysis 

Initial Technology Choice Considerations 

• Evaporator and condenser coils with • Air-foil or backward-curved 

larger heat~exchanger area * centrifugal fans * 

CJ) "Deep coil" or micro-channel • Synchronous (toothed) belts or 

evaporator coils direct drive fans * 

Low pressure-loss filters and • Inverter-driven, variable-speed • 

cooling coils * indoor or condenser compressors 

• High-efficiency propeller condenser 

• High efficiency motors * fans 

• High efficiency compressors, e.g. • High-side solenoid valve or 

scrolls or "twin-single" technology * discharge line check-valve to 

' .. Multiple compressors * minimize pressure equalization 

• Inverter-driven! variable-speed • Heat-pipes (for high latent loads) * 

compressors * • Double-skin, high-albedo cabinets * 

• Thermal expansion valves (TXV) * • Sub-coolers 

• Electronic expansion valves • Demand-controlled ventilation 

strategy * 

* Currently used in commercial unitary and/or split AC/HP products 

III-C- 5 
3 '~ Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS

Mark Kendall

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com)

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

ENGINEERING ANALYSIS 

Mark Kendall 

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com) 

Arthur D. Little, Inc. 

u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
lb Engineering Analysis

,wS Overview

The Engineering Analysis defines the relationship between equipment cost and equipment efficiency for use in downstream analyses.

o / Consumer Life-Cycle Cost

,= /y~ ^^^ ~* ·Manufacturer Impact '0

1.-Employment Impact

, , , * Employment Impact

Product Efficiency

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Engineering Analysis 

Overview 

The Engineering Analysis defines the relationship between equipment 

cost and equipment efficiency for use in downstream analyses. 

.... 

en 

o 

o 

c: 

o .-.... 

o 

::J 

"C 

o 

~ 

a.. 

Product Efficiency 

1" . II ~ Ii • 'i~' ,,: d II: :~jl ~I: ;1,: . 'I! 1 .1:. ~,: \1; ; It ii'~ ,II. ;,1 I"" ~~ ~ 'I ,. "~I' II' ,. '. 

I. ~ • I l... I • 

~j! . I I~ ,j. • -~ : ~;p 1 I:, ", ~ .: • I~. ~ • ~r ~ I' . t 

" • If. ".. • 

• 

• Consumer Life-Cycle Cost 

• Manufacturer Impact 

• Employment Impact 

111.0. Eng Analysis 083001 
i Engineering Analysis

Characteristics

_I w . - r ! ........... :,-~,~-: -...'~r'~:; " : :: .......;

DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in

the analysis possess certain characteristics.

® Credible

- based on acceptable estimation techniques

- incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources

* Transparent

- publicly accessible

- protects proprietary information

* Specific

- sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation

- a single set of cost-efficiency estimates

- quantified uncertainties

* Timely

- available prior to scheduled deadlines

IIID. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Engineering Analysis 

Chpracteristics 

. ~. ..~. ',.,-.;' 

DOE desires that the cost/efficiency relationships used in 

the analysis possess certain characteristics .. 

• Credible 

- based on acceptable estimation techniques 

- incorporates and reconciles available data from multiple sources 

• Transparent 

- publicly accessible 

- protects proprietary information 

• Specific 

- sufficient detail to reduce ambiguity or misinterpretation 

- a single set of cost-efficiency estimates 

- quantified uncertainties 

• Timely 

- available prior to scheduled deadlines 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 2 
Engineering Analysis

Sources of Efficiency Data

There are several potential sources of efficiency/performance information,

when applied to commercial air conditioners.

Primary advantage ... disadvantage

Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of Detailed data is often / performance data the most sensitive

Testing/Rating Objective near only accessible concentrated near only a few efficiency levels

Technical Literature Freely available Inconsisent topical J

coverage

,Engineering Estimates Efficient Scope depends on

Engineering Estimates Efficient personnel availability

Questionable Simulation Modeling Flexible applicabilityfor

larger equipment

Prototyping Direct observation Resource intensive V

/. Can provide direct insight into performance of future

equipment under more stringent standards 1I.D.EngAnalysis 083001 3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Engineering Analysis 

SOl!Jrces of Efficiency Data 

There are several potential sources of efficiency/performance information, 

when applied to commercial air conditioners. 

Primary advantage ... disadvantage 

Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of Detailed data is often 

performance data the most sensitive 

. Testing/Rating Objective and Products are 

concentrated near only accessible 

a few efficiency levels 

Technical Literature Freely available Inconsisent topical 

coverage 

',Engineering Estimates Efficient Scope depends on 

personnel availability 

Simulation Modeling Flexible Questionable 

applicability for 

larger equipment 

Prototyping Direct observation Resource intensive 

. j. Can provide direct Insight Into performance of future 

V equipment under more stringent standards 111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 

J 

J 

J 

J 

J 

3 
Engineering Analysis

Sources of Manufacturing Cost Data

Similarly, there are several potential sources of manufacturing cost

data each with advantages and disadvantages.

Primary advantage ... disadvantage

Manufacturers and Suppliers Direct source of cost Detailed data is often

and market info sensitive

Teardown Analysis/ Direct product Products concentrated

observation near only a few Engineering Evaluation efficiency levels

List Prices Readily accessible Indicates overall value, wholesale prices not efficiency-related

cost

Public Data (e.g. Census) Freely available Highly aggregated

Can provide direct insight into future costs under

more stringent standards

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Engineering Analysis 

SQurces' of Manufacturing Cost Data 

Similarly, there are several potential sources of manufacturing cost 

. data each with advantages and disadvantages. 

Primary advantage . D • disadvantage 

·Manufacturers and Suppliers 

T eardown Analysis/ 

. Engineering Evaluation 

.. , 

List Prices 

Public Data (e.g. Census) 

Direct source of cost 

and market info 

Direct product 

observation 

Readily accessible 

wholesale prices 

Freely available 

.; Can provi(le direct Insight into future costs under 

more stringent standards 

Detailed data Is often 

sensitive 

Products concentrated . I 

near only a few y 

efficiency levels 

Indicates overall value, 

not efficiency-related 

cost 

Highly aggregated 

111.0. Eng Analysis 083001 4 
~'-. Engineering Analysis

.: Proposed Approach

Based on the Department's past experience using approaches such

as the Design Option and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to

combine data sources for this rulemaking.

· Gather publicly available information on cost, price, and performance

* Work with manufacturers to obtain design data for appropriate

equipment samples and perform a cost estimate based on that data

* Conduct computer simulations and perform engineering estimates to

supplement the design data

* Obtain reviews by stakeholders

* Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty

Based on their advantages and disadvantages, are all these

steps necessary, or are others warranted?

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Engineering Analysis 

Proposed Approach 

Based on the Department's past experience using approaches such 

as the Design Option and Efficiency Level approach, we propose to 

. combine data sources for this rulemaking. 

• Gather publicly available information on cost, price, and performance 

• Work with manufacturers to obtain design data for appropriate 

equipment samples and perform a cost estimate based on that data 

• Conduct computer simulations and perform engineering estimates to 

supplement the design data 

• Obtain reviews by stakeholders 

• Reconcile results and characterize uncertainty 

Based on their advantages and disadvantages, are aI/ these 

steps necessary, or are others warranted? 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 5 
'. Engineering Analysis Questions Related to Proposed Approach

_ B~B.~,,,: i~? t?3:.';'" - : :-: 

Depending on which approach we take, there are some questions to be

answered.

· What role should manufacturers and other stakeholders have in

providing data and reviewing assumptions, methods and results?

* What performance modeling tools should be used, if any? - PUREZ -- formerly referred to as MODCON (Oak Ridge National

Laboratory simulation model)

- HPSIM (National Institute of Standards and Technology simulation

model)

- ACMODEL (Ray W. Herrick Laboratories, Purdue University simulation

model)

- Spreadsheets (based on engineering expertise)

* If we draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines should we use for reconciling them and integrating them into a

single set of cost-efficiency data?

* How should the Department consider improvements that impact part-load efficiency (e.g. IPLV) but not EER?

Il.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

~ ~~ Engineering Analysis " ~J\ Questions Related to Proposed Approach 

, ~~1rI _ ..... ______ IIIUJ2iJd ..... i¥!~."'iiifJ~,'3'~;;'t.,;;<~~~!:~:~;':.,,; : 

Depending on which approach we take, there are some questions to be 

answered. 

• What role'should manufacturers and other stakeholders have in 

, providing data and reviewing assumptions, methods and results? 

• What,performance modeling tools should be used, if any? 

- PUREZ -- formerly referred to as MODCON (Oak Ridge National 

Laboratory simulation model) 

- HPSIM (National Institute of Standards and Technology simulation 

model) , 

, " - ACMODEL (Ray W. Herrick Laboratories, Purdue University simulation 

model) 

- Spreadsheets (based on engineering expertise) 

• If we draw on multiple sources of information, what guidelines 

should we' use for reconciling them and integrating them into a 

single set of cost-efficiency data? 

'. How should the Department consider improvements that impact 

part-load efficiency (e.g. IPLV) but not EER? I 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300\ 6 
l ' ~Retail Price and Installation Cost .. l Overview

Retail prices and installation costs at various efficiency levels are needed

to estimate consumer life cycle costs.

Retail Price

Installation CLife Cycle Cost Analysis Cost

* How will standards impact equipment price, installation cost (and maintenance/service costs)?

* What are the drawbacks, if any, of inferring equipment retail

prices by applying a series of markups to our production cost estimates?

* Given that the equipment price is just one component of the price of the installed system, is it likely that information gathered through a survey could help determine retail prices or markups ?

III.D. Eng Analysis 083001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Retail Price and Installation Cost 

. Overview 

Retail prices and installation costs at various efficiency levels are needed 

to estimate consumer life cycle costs. 

• 

I ' 

• 

• 

Retail Price 

Installation 

Cost 

Life Cycle Cost Analysis 

How will standards impact equipment price, installation cost (and 

maintenance/service costs)? 

What are the drawbacks, if any, of inferring equipment retail 

prices by applying a series of markups to our production cost 

estimates? 

Given that the equipment price is just one component of the 

price of the installed system, is it likely that information gathered 

through a survey could help determine retail- prices or markups? 

111.0. Eng Analysis 08300 I 7 
Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

Building Energy Use & Electric Load

Shape Characterization

David Winiarski

(david.winiarski@pnl.gov)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

Building Energy Use & Electric Load 

Shape Characterization 

I>avid VViniarski 

(david. winiarski@pnl.gov) 

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 

U.S~ DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
e' , Building Energy Use and Load Shape

Ad Characterization

Overview

'if __~ I~eA~P~391~'p-~_ ~ ",,- ':-. ·

The purpose of the building energy use and load shape characterization

analysis is to assess the energy and peak demand savings potential of

different equipment efficiencies across the range of commercial building

types and climate zones.

5 5Development and Characterizmulation of Equipment Load

Building Stock: Profiles

Possible Sources Building Prototypes

CBECS, MAISY (Possible Tools:

Utility/Industry data BLAST, Demand Profildines Energy Plus) Demand Profiles

k.F

Time

III-D-2- 2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Building Energy Use and Load Shape 

Characterization 

Overview 

The purpose of the. building energy use and load shape characterization 

analysis is to assess the energy and peak demand savings ,potential of 

different equipment efficiencies across the range of commercial building 

types and climate zones. 

Characterization of 

Building Stock: 

Possible Sources 

CBECS, MAISY 

Utility/Industry data 

~ ... 

. gr. I 

./ 

'\ Development and 

Simulation of 

Building Prototypes 

(Possible Tools: / BLAST, DOE2.1 E, 

Energy Plus) 

'\ 

/ 

>. 

Ol 

..... 

Q) 

c 

W 

\. 

Equipment Load 

Profiles 

& 

Whole Building 

Demand Profile~ 

Time 

111-0-2- 2 
Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization

Request for Stakeholder Input

The Department seeks stakeholder input on the tools and

other sources of data concerning U.S. commercial building

stock characteristics for energy-related modeling purposes.

Do you agree with the use of these tools?

What other data sources could stakeholders make available

to better characterize building stock using these unitary

equipment (e.g. regional product shipping data, utility

customer surveys, or other survey data)?

III-D-2- 3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization 

Request for Stakeholder Input 

The Department seeks stakeholder input on the tools and 

other sources of data concerning U.S. commercial building 

stock characteristics for energy-related modeling purposes. 

Do you agree with the use of these tools? 

What other data sources could stakeholders make available 

, to better characterize building stock using these unitary 

equipment (e.g. regional product shipping data, utility 

customer surveys, or other survey data)? 

I1I-D-2- 3 
i; Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization

.b Request for Stakeholder Input

Specific Modeling Concerns

- Buildings with commercial unitary AC and HPs are likely to

use economizers that provide cooling independent of the

efficiency of the equipment. What assumptions should be

made in modeling the equipment regarding the use of, and

control strategy applied to, economizers?

-Commercial unitary AC and HPs may be oversized to allow

for growth, which affects the run time, energy performance,

and latent heat removal capability. What assumptions should

be made about how equipment is sized in order to address it

correctly in the analysis from both an energy and first cost

impact?

III-D-2- 4

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

.' I 

Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization 

Request for Stakeholder Input 

II Specific Modeling Concerns 

- Buildings with commercial unitary AC and HPs are likely to 

use economizers that provide cooling independent of the 

efficiency of the equipment. What assumptions should be 

made in modeling the equipment regarding the use of, and 

control strategy applied to, economizers? 

Commercial unitary AC and HPs may be oversized to allow 

for growth, which affects the run time, energy perfonnance, 

and latent heat removal capability. What assumptions should 

be mqde about how equipment is sized in order to address it 

correctly in the analysis from both an energy and first cost 

impact? 

III-D-2- 4 
yK Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization

ji Request for Stakeholder Input

Specific Modeling Concerns

- Due to the varied ductwork designs for various commercial

buildings the fan static pressures will vary significantly.

What assumptions should be made regarding typical duct

designs in order to effectively accountforfan energy use?

-Supply fans on commercial unitary AC and HPs generally

operate continuously when the building is occupied to

provide ventilation air. How should energy use of the supply

fans operating only when ventilation is required (rather than

heating or cooling) be excluded from (or incorporated with)

the energy use of the heating and cooling equipment?

III-D-2- 5

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Building Energy Use and Load Shape Characterization. 

Request for Stakeholder Input 

" ' ........ ':'" 

• Specific Modeling Concerns 

- Due to the varied ductwork designs for various commercial 

buildings the fan static pressures will vary significantly. 

What assumptions should be made regarding typical duct 

designs in order to effectively account/or fan energy use? 

- Supply fans on commercial unitary AC and HPs generally 

operate continuously when the building is occupied to 

provide ventilation air. How should energy use of the supply 

fans operating only when ventilation is required (rather than 

heating or cooling) be excludedfrom (or incorporated with) 

the energy use of the heating and cooling equipment? 

III-D-2- 5 
Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners

and Heat Pumps

-. r,,.. X... ~r '~' ~Z"- .' ...:: :::.-.... · ,

Life Cycle Cost Analysis

James E. McMahon

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov)

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners

and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

, . 

Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps 

Life Cycle Cost Analysis 

James E. McMahon 

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) 

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National·Laboratory 

U.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners 

and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

Purpose

Analyze "the savings in operating costs

throughout the average life of the covered

product in the type (or class) compared to

any increase in the price of, or in the initial

charges for, or maintenance expenses of, the

covered products which are likely to result

from the imposition of standards."

(§325 (0)(2)(B)(i)(II)) [EPCA]

III.E. 1

I EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC . 

.. 

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Purpose • . ,.' ,ro'"." 'l.:-" 1'"~~.~~·~/:~;.!~'i::.~:;::; .;".' .,' . 

• Analyze "the savings in operating costs 

throughout the average life of the covered 

product in the type (or class) compare~ to 

any increase in the price of, or in the initial 

charges for, or maintenance expenses of, the . 

. covered products which are likely to result 

• I from the imposition of standards." 

(§325 (O)(2)(B)(i)(II)) [EPCA] 

lILE.l 
. . Life Cycle Cost is the Sum

of Initial Cost and Lifetime Operating Costs

. Cumulative Cash Flow (undiscounted)

L~* 4T~ T~P _ TNr~ $ ~I *Life Cycle Cost (discounted) WLCC =I | $ 5 Initial stalled cost

N[O/(l+r) t] where

- IC- Initial installed

cost

- O = Annual operating

expense

- r = Discount rate

- t = years (sum over IC

equipment lifetime)

Years

Product Life

II.E.2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost is the Sum 

. of Initial Cost and Lifetime Operating Costs 

. 

· Lee = Ie + 

L[O/(l +r)t] ·where 

- Ie = Initial installed 

cost 

- 0 = Annual operating 

expense 

- r = Discount rate 

- t = years (sum over 

equipment lifetime) 

Ie 

$ 

- _._ - ••• ·PM •••• _. • ••• ",' • • _ _. • _ •••••••••• _._._ •••• 

I mJ Cwnclative Cash Flow (unclli,c-~~ted) .. ! 

I • Life Cycle Cost (dis cOlmte d) I 

o Initial mstalled cost - .- - -- - _ ..... _. --- - ,-",.... -

Product Life 

- - - - - .. - _ .. ,.. " -.' -- -' 

Years 

III.E.2 
fIf. ~Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders

· Are the proposed approaches reasonable?

* Should regional variations in climate and energy

price be analyzed in ANOPR stage or later

(NOPR) ?

* Are the proposed data sources reasonable?

* Should equipment lifetimes depend on operating

hours, climate, or other application-specific

variables? Should lifetimes be the same for all

product classes?

III.E.3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders 

• Are the proposed approaches reasonable? 

• Should regional variations in climate and energy 

price be analyzed in ANOPR stage or later 

(NOPR)? 

• "Are the proposed data sources reasonable? 

• Should equipment lifetimes depend on operating 

hours, climate, or other application-specific 

variables? Should lifetimes be the same for all 

product classes? 

III.EJ 
Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

iiy Inputs (1)

Installed Cost:

The price paid for an air conditioner or heat pump,

including installation

Possible data sources

- Current or recent purchase prices

- Calculated from manufacturer costs plus

markups (manufacturer, dealer, distributor,

contractor) plus sales tax and installation cost

III.E.4

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Inputs (1) • I. ,...,;~. .\' j'" ~ ~.~~:Y':~~.':':~.ii:"'::'" J ..... ~ .~;. 

• Installed Cost: 

The price paid for an air conditioner or heat pump, 

including installation 

. • Possible data sources 

- Current or recent purchase prices 

- Calculated from manufacturer costs plus 

markups (manufacturer, dealer, distributor, 

contractor) plus sales tax and installation cost 

III.EA 
-J ^ 'Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

'| EInputs (2)

Operating Expenses:

- Energy and maintenance costs

- Lifetime of the air conditioner or heat pump

- Discount rate (for calculating present value of future

operating expenses)

Possible approach and data sources - Annual energy consumption by air conditioner or heat

pump (derived from CBECS, other commercially

available 'data sets and/or simulations)

- Current and forecasted regional energy price trends

(from EIA/AEO) applied to marginal prices

- Gather and analyze data on lifetimes, discount rates

- Survey of commercial tariffs and utility marginal costs III.E.5

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Inputs (2) .... iiiiiiii ... _________ .•. ·.~~~iff~~"·\~~~':r~:·:~~····:::·~:/:· ":, .' 

• Operating Expenses: 

- Energy and maintenance costs 

- Lifetime of the air conditioner or heat pump 

_. Discount rate (for calculating present value of future 

operating expenses) 

• Possible approach and data sources 

- Annual energy consumption by air conditioner or heat 

pump (derived from CBECS, other commercially 

available 'data sets and/or simulations) 

- Current and forecasted regional energy price trends 

(from EIAIAEO) applied to marginal prices 

- Gather and analyze data on lifetimes, discount rates 

, - Survey of commercial tariffs and utility· marginal costs III.E.5 
3t:' ~ Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

| Illustrative LCCs for Generic Options

A range of efficiencies will I

be analyzed and compared to a!.. E UOperating and maintenance costs

1baseln. I Installed costs baseline.

In this example, 3 options

have reduced operating costs

- Option 1 = lower LCC

-Option 2 = lowest LCC, but

higher installed costs

- Option 3 = higher LCC and . .

highest installed costs Baseline Option 1 Option 2 Option 3

Efficiency Options

III.E.6

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Illustrative LCCs for Generic Options 

• A rang~ of efficiencies will 

be 'analyzed and compared to 

baseline. 

• In this example, 3 options 

have reduced operating costs 

- Option 1 = lower Lee ' , ' 

,-, Option 2 = lowest Lee, but 

higher installed costs 

Option 3 = higher Lee and 

highest installed costs 

.. -.... - -

--- H -- ,-, 'I 

o Operating and maintenance costsl 

I 

• Installed costs I 

---.1,·-· , ,----.i..,,--.- -· ...... _ .. 1 

I 

I 

Baseline Option 1 Option 2 Option 3 

Efficiency Options . .- -- - -. -- .... . .. --_. .... . - ..... . ... _----_ ... -...... __ ....... . 

III.E.6 
Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

Analyze Variability and Uncertainty

Obj ectives:

- Analyze variability among applications and operating

conditions (e.g., climate, building characteristics, operation,

electricity prices)

- Rigorous treatment of uncertainty

Technical Approach:

- Use commercially available software

- Use distributions for each input, not point estimates

- Public access via Web, training

III.E.7

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Analyze Variability and Uncertainty 

. ..: .', y... "Ii"·.. !t> .~ 

• Objectives: 

,- Analyze variability among applications and operating 

conditions (e.g., climate, building characteristics, operation, 

electrici ty prices) 

- Rigorous treatment of uncertainty 

• Technical Approach: 

, - Use commercially available software 

- Use distributions for each input, not point estimates 

- Public access via Web, training 

III.E.7 
||' Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

Analysis Issues

Whose Perspective

- Owner

- User

Demand Charges

- Highly variable

Utility Deregulation

- Future developments

- Price impacts

III.E.8

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Analysis Issues 

• Whose Perspective 

- Owner 

- User 

• Demand Charges 

- Highly variable 

,. Utility Deregulation 

- Future developments 

- Price impacts 

.,- . '. :.~; .' . "', . ":,. 

III.E.8 
e» ~Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

Results

Summarize Results for Each Possible

Efficiency Improvement

- Average (or median) LCC savings

- Percent of consumers with net savings or with

net costs

Importance analysis

- Identify key inputs that contribute most to

uncertainty or variability

III.E.9

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Results 

• Summarize Results for Each Possible 

Efficiency Improvement 

- Average (or median) LCC savings 

- Percent of consumers with net savings or with 

net costs 

I '. Importance analysis 

- Identify key inputs that contribute most to 

uncertainty or variability 

III.E.9 
BACKUP SLIDES

Life Cycle Cost Analysis

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

• "" ".' • • ':,' " •• '~' j ~ 

BACKUP SLIDES 

Life Cycle Cost Analysis 
Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

Uncertainty and Variability

Identify key sources of uncertainty and variability

- Uncertainty: incomplete information

- Variability: range of values

Estimate input ranges rather than point values

- Minimum, likeliest, maximum values

Conduct scenario ("what-if') analysis

Simulate over input ranges

Express output as ranges

- Summarize with percent of consumers having lower life

cycle cost III.E. 1

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle 'Cost Analysis: 

Uncertainty and Variability •• ",'J" ........ ' • 

• Identify key sources of uncertainty and variability 

- Uncertainty: incomplete information 

- Variability: range of values 

• Estimate input ranges rather than point values 

- Minimum, likeliest, maximum values 

'.' Conduct scenario ("what-if') analysis· 

• Simula~e over input ranges 

• ,Express output as ranges 

- Summarize with percent of consumers having lower life 

cycle cost III.E.II 
'g ~ Life Cycle Cost Analysis:

Simulation Method

Select one building from sample population

- Use weighted sampling (to represent appropriate fraction

of total population)

- Actual monthly energy bills

- Estimate annual energy consumption by air conditioner

or heat pump

Calculate price of energy

- Calculate marginal price for electricity

- Apply time trends to estimate future prices

Sample given uncertainties

- Manufacturers' costs, markups, lifetime, discount rate

Calculate LCC

III.E. 12

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Life Cycle Cost Analysis: 

Simulation Method 

• Select one building from sample population 

- Use weighted sampling (to represent appropriate fraction 

. of total population) 

- Actual monthly energy bills 

- Estimate annual energy consumption by air conditioner 

or heat pump 

• Calculate price of energy 

- Calculate marginal price for electricity 

- Apply time trends to estimate future prices 

• Sample given uncertainties 

- Manufacturers' costs, markups, lifetime, discount rate 

• Calculate Lee 

III.E. J 2 
Process for making models

transparent and robust

Make models as simple as possible

Make copies of models accessible to public

- On Internet

- Available from US DOE or contractor

Make models easy to use

- Graphical user interface, option menus

- Develop documentation

Provide training

- Central location (e.g., public workshop)

- On-site at stakeholder location

- Computer link or videoconference

III.E. 13

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

· , 

Process for making models 

transparent and robust 

, • ;." ......... : J.,.A, 

• Make models as simple as possible 

• Make copies of models accessible to public 

- On Internet 

- Available from US DOE or contractor 

• Make models easy to use 

- Graphical user interface, option menus 

- Develop documentation 

• Provide training 

- Central location (e.g., public workshop) 

- On-site at stakeholder location 

- Computer link or videoconference 

III.E.I3 
Consumer Subgroup Analysis

James E. McMahon

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov)

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and

Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Consumer Subgroup Analysis 

James E. McMahon 

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) 

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and 

Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
Excerpt from "Principles for the

Analysis of Impacts on Consumers"

,,m. ; m.ffF:?.:..;.'> *'- "

"The Department will use regional analysis and

sensitivity analysis tools, as appropriate, to

evaluate the potential distribution of impacts of

candidate standards levels on consumers. The

Department will consider impacts on significant

segments of society in determining standards

levels. Where there are significant negative

impacts on identifiable subgroups, DOE will

consider the efficacy of voluntary approaches as a

means to achieve potential energy savings."

Appendix A to Subpart C of Part 430, Code of Federal Regulations;

61 FR 36981, 86-871 (July 15, 1996)

III.F.I

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

'Excerpt from "Principles for the 

Analysis of Impacts on Consumers" 

• "The Department will use regional analysis and 

sensitiyity analysis tools, as appropriate, to 

evaluate the potential distribution of impacts of 

candidate standards levels on consumers. The , 

Department'will consider impacts on significant 

segments of society in determining standards 

levels. Where there are significant negative 

,. impacts on identifiable subgroups, DOE will 

consider the efficacy of voluntary approaches as a 

means to achieve potential energy savings." , 

Appendix A to Subpart C of Part 430, Code of Federal Regulations; 

61 FR 36981,86-871 (July 15, 1996) 

III.F.1 
LCC Subgroup Analysis:

COMMERCIAL PRODUCTS: where

disproportionate impacts from standards

may occur, some subgroups may be

analyzed.

What subgroups should be considered for

commercial unitary air conditioners and

heat pumps? (e.g., owner-occupant, tenantleased, public sector etc.)

III.F.2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

LCC Subgroup Analysis: 

• COM·M·ERCIAL PRODUCTS: where I 

disproportionate impacts from standards 

may occur, some subgroups may be 

analyzed .. 

I e. What subgroups should be considered for 

commercial unitary air conditioners and 

heat pumps? (e.g., owner-occupant, tenantleased, public sector etc.) 

III.F.2 
NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS

AND NET PRESENT VALUE ANALYSIS

James E. McMahon

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov)

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat

Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS 

AND NET PRESENT VALUE ANALYSIS 

James E. McMahon 

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) 

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and Heat 

Pumps 

September 12,2001 
.11 National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis:

Overview

Energy consumption for commercial space cooling by

equipment class will be calculated for a base case and

standards cases

The difference between base case consumption and

consumption in each standards case represents energy

savings

Results will be reported in physical units (kwh site energy)

(quadrillion Btus source energy) and economic units

(dollars) for each year and cumulatively

The period of analysis is from start date of standard to

about 30 years later (ca. 2040)

III.G. I

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

Overview 

• ~ • r. ", .' ~ .' to: ''; 

• Energy consumption for commercial space cooling by 

. equipment class will be calculated for a base case and 

standards cases 

• The difference between base case consumption and 

consumption in each standards case represents energy . saVIngs 

• Results will be reported in physical units (kwh site energy) 

(quadrillion Btus source energy) and economic units 

(dollars) for each year and cumulatively 

• The period of analysis is from start date of standard to 

, about 30 years later (ca. 2040) 

III.O. I 
National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis:

Methods for Forecasting Shipments

Extrapolate from time series

- No explicit accounting for number of buildings, percent

owning equipment, changes in installed cost or

operating expense

Forecast using accounting model

- New buildings and percent by equipment type

- Replacement as function of equipment lifetime

Consider impacts of existing non-regulatory

efforts on base case efficiencies in future years.

III.G.2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

National Energy' Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

Methods for Forecasting Shipments 

• Extrapolate from time series 

-' No explicit accounting for number of buildings, percent 

owning equipment, changes in installed cost or 

operating expense 

. • Forecast using accounting model 

- New buildings and percent by equipment type 

- Replacement as function of equipment lifetime 

• Consider impacts of existing non-regulatory 

. efforts on base case efficiencies in future years. 

III.G.2 
National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis:

DOE Requests Input from

Stakeholders on Shipments

What other approaches should the

Department consider to establish the

forecasts for base case and standards

cases?

What information sources for past shipment

data by efficiency level are available?

What existing non-regulatory initiatives

should be considered in the base case?

III.G.3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

DOE Requests Input from 

Stakeholders on Shipments .. . ...•.. "t '-r-" .. ~~1~:;::P~.:::.·~;:;·~~:~fr··€<'~;:· :r' 

• What other approaches should the 

Depa.rtment consider to establish the 

'. forecasts for base case and standards 

cases? 

• What information sources for past shipment 

. data by efficiency level are available? 

• What existing non-regulatory initiatives 

should be considered in the base case? 

III.G.3 
i|^ National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis:

Consumer Economic Factors

Operating Operating Expenses Depend on

expenses: typically

thousands of o AC or HP a Equipment capacity

dollars per building * Climate * Energy prices

per year * Building loads and usage

Purchase Pese . tPurchase Expenses Depend on

expenses: typically

thousands of thousan *AC or HP * Equipment capacity dollars per * Location * Split or Single Package

installation · New or Replacement Construction

III.G.4

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

Consumer Economic Factors 

• Operating 

expenses: typically 

thousands of 

dollars per building 

per year 

• Purchase 

expenses: typically 

thousands of 

dollars per 

installation 

Operating Expenses Depend on 

• AC or HP 0 Equipment capacity 

• Climate • Energy prices 

. • Building loads and usage 

Purchase Expenses Depend on 

• AC or HP • Equipment capacity 

• Location • Split or Single Package 

• New or Replacement Construction 

III.GA 
National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis:

Equipment Class Distribution

Chart at right shows0 : ?-:?: ,':,' : * SplitSystems

estimated equipment 1600

shipped tonnage from 1400 Single Packa

census -data (1997) a> l : 

DOE Needs to ' 1200 'I.G.

determine shipments - c 

to building type and n . o .

region for national : - ' . V) 400 ". energy savings

analysis 200

AC 65-135 HP 65-135 AC 135-240 HP 135-240

III.G.5

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

/ 

National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

Equipment Class Distribution 

• Chart at right shows 

'estimated e'quipment 

shipped tonnage from 

census 'data (1997) 

• DOE Needs to 

determine shipments 

to building type and 

region for national 

• 

energy savIngs 

analysis 

. . . '. .' .;',::" ).-

1800 

1600 . 

1400 

>-

... m .. 'u- t: 1200 ," . . C'G 0< . a. f- . cu "C 1000 

Ot: 

"C ~ 800·. 

Q) ::l '. 

a. 

Co 0 600· .- ~ .t:fen - 4001':." .. < •• , ••••. , 

200 

o 

• Split Systems 

1m Single Package 

..... 

AC 65·135 HP 65-135 AC 135-240 HP 135-240 

III.G.5 
¥':~ National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis:

tMethod: 3 Net Present Value (NPV)

For each year analyzed, calculate the difference in

installed costs and operating costs between the base

case and each standards case

Discount future values to the present

- Include operating costs over lifetime of equipment purchased

Sum over years to get NPV

- If present value of savings exceeds costs, NPV is positive.

- If present value of costs exceeds savings, NPV is negative.

III.G.6

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

National Energy Saving and Net Present Value Analysis: 

Method: Net Present Value (NPV) •• .~. 10·, •• 

•• r.~ ~ ., • 

• For each ,year analyzed, calculate the difference in 

I installed costs and operating costs between the base 

case and each standards case 

• Discount future values to the present 

, - Include operating ~osts over lifetime of equipment purchased 

• I Sum over years to get NPV 

- If present value of savings exceeds costs, NPV is positive. 

- If pres~nt value of costs exceeds savings, NPV is negative. 

III.G.6 
~~- S l Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS

Mark Kendall

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com)

Arthur D. Little, Inc.

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

• I 

Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

MANUFACTURER IMPACT ANALYSIS 

Mark Kendall 

(kendall.mark@adlittle.com) 

Arthur D. Little, Inc. 

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
S:* Manufacturer Impact Analysis

To explore the economic and competitive issues, the Manufacturer

Impact Analysis (MIA) asks several questions.

· What impacts will standards have on...

- Industry cash flows and net present value?

- Product flow through distribution channels?

- Manufacturing capacity?

- Industry employment levels?

- Competition?

* What products or subgroups may be particularly sensitive to impacts of

new standards?

* What other regulations contribute to a cumulative regulatory burden on

manufacturers, and what is their combined impact?

* Should the Department consider other topics beside competition,

employment, capacity utilization and cumulative burden?

1

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Manufacturer Impact Analysis 

. '. Ioj:." ",,1: 

To expl'ore the economic and competitive issues, the Manufacturer 

Impact Analysis (MIA) asks several questions. 

• What impacts will standards have on ... 

- Industiy cash flows and net present value? 

- Product flow through distribution channels? 

- Manufacturing capacity? 

- Industry employment levels? 

- Competition? 

• What products or subgroups may be particularly sensitive to impacts of 

new standards? 

• What other regulations contribute to a cumulative regulatory burden on 

manufacturers, and what is' their combined impact? 

• Should the Department consider other topics beside competition, 

employment, capacity utilization and cumulative burden? 

1 
EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS

James E. McMahon

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov)

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and

Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

· ... ' ~ :. _ if·~· 

EMPLOYMENT IMPACT ANALYSIS 

James E. McMahon 

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) 

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and 

Heat Pumps 

September 12,2001 
Employment Impact Analysis:

. Both Direct and Indirect Employment

A• IImpacts Occur

Direct employment impacts are estimated in

the manufacturer impact analysis

Indirect employment impacts occur from

- Shifting consumer expenditures among goods

(substitution effect)

- Changing equipment and energy costs (income

effect)

111.I.I

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

. , 

Employment Impact Analysis: 

Both Direct and Indirect Employment 

Impacts Occur ??~t\:!r.: . .:'!~'$~:~.:b}"'~ ">':~:'::', ;' : .. :-":" 

• Direct employment impacts are estimated in 

the manufacturer impact analysis 

• Indirect employment impacts occur from 

- Shifting consumer expenditures among goods 

(substitution effect) 

- Changing equipment and energy costs (income 

effect) 

IlLLl 
Employment Impact Analysis:

DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders

What methods should be used to estimate

employment impacts?

111.1.2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

. I 

Employment Impact Analysis: 

"1." . DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders 

• What methods should be used to estimate 

employment impacts? 

IILl.2 
UTILITY IMPACT ANALYSIS

James E. McMahon

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov)

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and

Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

, ' 

• '.' ~'. .,.. •• ~ ••• ~. 1" ~ 

UTILITY IMP ACT ANALYSIS 

James E. McMahon 

(lEMcMahon@LBL.gov) 

Ernest Orlando L,awrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

·U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and , 

Heat Pumps 

September 12, 2001 
Utility Impact Analysis:

PURPOSE AND METHOD

PURPOSE

- Estimate effects on electricity suppliers of reduced

energy sales due to new energy efficiency standards

METHOD uses NEMS-BRS

- Integrated model of U.S. energy sector, including

supply and demand

- Publicly available model, with forecast through 2020

* extrapolate beyond 2020

- Current basis: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001

* will update model when EIA does (usually annually)

11.J.I

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Utility Impact Analysis: 

PURPOSE AND METHOD 

• • ~'f. " :. 'O'}" ~:' 

• PURPOSE 

- Estimate effects on electricity suppliers of reduced 

energy sales due to new energy efficiency standards 

• METHOD uses NEMS-BRS 

- Integrated model of u.s. energy sector, including 

supply and demand 

- Publicly available model, with forecast through 2020 

• extrapolate beyond 2020 

- Current basis: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2001 

• will update model when EIA does (usually annually) 

IlLJ.} 
Utility Impact Analysis:

INPUTS

Annual energy consumption and savings for

commercial unitary air conditioners and

heat pumps from National Energy Saving

spreadsheet

All other inputs from EIA

III.J.2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Utility Impact Analysis: 

INPUTS 

, 

• Annual energy consumption and savings for 

commercial unitary air conditioners and 

heat pumps from National Energy Saving 

spreadsheet 

• All other inputs from EIA 

111.1.2 
Utility Impact Analysis:

METHOD and OUTPUT

METHOD

- NEMS-BRS balances all supply and demand given

savings from new energy efficiency standard

OUTPUT

- Change in energy sales and price by fuel type

(electricity, gas, oil) by region

- Change in mix of electricity generation

- Change in new capacity construction

III.J.3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Utility Impact Analysis: 

METHOD and OUTPUT 

·'MET'HOD 

- NEMS-BRS balances all supply and demand given 

savings from new energy efficiency standard 

• OUTPUT 

" - Change in energy sales and price by fuel type 

(electricity, gas, oil) by region 

- Change in mix of electricity generation 

, - Change in new capacity construction 

111.1.3 
Utility Impact Analysis:

DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders

-soI., .

':

;. . I ::i.:? :',: -....

Should we consider using alternative

methods to NEMSfor conducting the utility

impacts analysis?

III.J.4

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Utility Impact Analysis: 

DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders . " '. .. " ..... ~ ... ~~ '. 

• Should we consider using alternative 

methods to NEMS for conducting the utility 

impacts analysis? 

III.JA 
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS

James E. McMahon

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov)

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

U.S. DOE Workshop on Standards

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and

Heat Pumps

September 12, 2001

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

· '. 

". • •• i \ ......... . 

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 

James E. McMahon 

(JEMcMahon@LBL.gov) 

Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 

u.s. DOE Workshop on Standards 

for Commercial Unitary Air Conditioners and 

Heat Pumps 

September 12,2001 
Environmental Impact Analysis:

PURPOSE and METHOD

PURPOSE

- Estimate impacts from new energy efficiency

standards

METHOD

- NEMS-BRS model

III.K. 1

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Environmental Impact Analysis: 

PURPOSE and METHOD 

• PURPOSE 

- Estimate impacts from new energy efficiency 

standards 

• METHOD 

- NEMS-BRS model 

III.K.l 
Environmental Impact Analysis:

OUTPUT

Impacts from new energy efficiency

standards on

- Quantities of U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide

(CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) from energy

supply systems

- Trading price of SO2

III.K.2

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Environmental Impact Analysis: 

OUTPUT 

. ,_; .:· .. ;··,·1.·· .... 

• I~pacts from new energy efficiency 

standards on 

, ' 

- Quantities of U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide 

(C02) and nitrogen oxides. (NOx) from energy 

supply systems 

- Trading price of S02 

III.K.2 
Environmental Impact Analysis:

DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders

Are there any other environmentalfactors

the Department should consider?

If so, what additional analytical methods

are appropriate for addressing them?

III.K.3

EE-RM-STD-01-375 COMMENT 02CC

Environmental Impact Analysis: 

DOE Requests Input from Stakeholders . :. -," .... , .. ",-

• Are th,ere any other environmental/actors 

the Department should consider? 

• If SO, what additional analytical methods 

are appropriate/or addressing them? 

, ' 

IILK.3