United States

Department

of Agriculture

www.ers.usda.gov

Electronic Outlook Report from the Economic Research Service

Total U.S. wheat supplies for the 2013/14 marketing year (June 1, 2013-May 31, 2014) 

were below those of the previous year as lower beginning stocks and production were 

only partially offset by higher imports. Total domestic use was down year to year with a 

sharp decrease in feed and residual use with the recovery in U.S. corn production from 

the previous year’s severe drought. Other domestic uses were up slightly. Exports were 

up sharply from the previous year. The season-average price (SAP) for 2013/14 was 

$6.87 per bushel, down from the record high $7.77 per bushel for 2012/13. The high 

SAP for 2012/13 was partially the result of the high corn prices due to the drought. 

Keywords: Wheat, United States, world, production, feed, consumption, supply, use, 

stocks, price 

Acknowledgments 

The author appreciates the valuable comments from USDA, Economic Research Service 

colleagues Mark Jekanowski and Kandice Marshall. Thanks also go to reviewers from 

other USDA agencies, including Mark Simone (Farm Service Agency), Teresa 

McKeivier (Foreign Agricultural Service), and Jerry Norton and William Chambers 

(World Agricultural Outlook Board). Priscilla Smith and Beverly Payton provided 

editorial, design, and production services. 

U.S. 2013/14 Wheat Year in Review: 

Smaller Supplies and Higher Exports 

Lower Ending Stocks 

Gary Vocke 

gvocke@ers.usda.gov

Abstract 

WHS-2015-1 

January 2015

Contents 

Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 

All Wheat Situation for 

2013/14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 

Domestic Demand Exceeds 

Foreign Demand for 2012/13 

 . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6

Monthly Wheat Prices. . . . 10

Government Payments

to the Wheat Sector Remained

Low in 2013. . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Wheat Situation by Class 

2013/14 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 

Hard Red Winter Wheat. . . . . 

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .13 

Hard Red Spring Wheat . . .14

Soft Red Winter Wheat . . .16

White Wheat. . . . . . . . . . . .19 

Durum Production . . . . . . .20

Approved by USDA’s 

World Agricultural 

Outlook Board. 
Summary 

2 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2014/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

The Economic Research Service’s wheat situation and outlook program publishes 

12 monthly reports each year detailing the factors underlying the month-to-month 

changes in the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s wheat supply and demand 

projections as published in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

(WASDE). This report provides an annual year-in-review discussion of the 2013/14 

domestic marketing year (June 1, 2013-May 31, 2014), covering supply, utilization, 

ending stocks, and prices. 

A defining feature of the 2013/14 U.S. wheat marketing year was the striking 

impact of regional weather conditions on by-class production and supplies. Hard red 

winter (HRW) seedings were reduced compared to the previous year due to drought 

in the Southern and Central Plains at planting time. HRW production was further 

reduced as continued dry conditions and spring freeze damage resulted in low yields 

and a high rate of abandonment particularly in the western parts of this region. In 

contrast, favorable weather at seeding time led to increased soft red winter (SRW) 

planted area. Continued favorable weather through the growing season resulted in 

high SRW yields. 

Spring wheat production was lower than the previous year as a late spring and 

excessive moisture in the Northern Plains significantly delayed spring wheat 

planting, and resulted in substantial prevented plantings. The loss of planted area in 

the Northern Plains was partially offset by higher yields resulting from favorable 

weather during the growing season. Production of hard red spring (HRS) and durum 

were both down year to year. Durum production was especially affected—down 30 

percent year to year. 

Another feature of the 2013/14 U.S. wheat marketing year was the sharply reduced 

feeding of wheat with the recovery of U.S. corn production from the previous year’s 

severe drought. The recovery of U.S. corn production and subsequent year to year 

corn price decline contributed to lower wheat prices in the 2013/14 marketing year. 

Supplies. Total U.S. supplies for 2013/14, at 3,021 million bushels, were down 97 

million bushels from the previous year as lower beginning stocks and production 

were only partially offset by higher imports. Beginning stocks for 2013/14 were 718 

million bushels, 25 million bushels less than in 2012/13. 

All-wheat production was estimated at 2,135 million bushels for 2013, down 117 

million bushels from 2012. All-wheat harvested area for 2013 was 45.3 million 

acres, down 3.5 million acres from the previous year. The U.S. all-wheat yield was 

47.1 bushels per acre, exceeding the previous record of 46.2 bushels for 2012. 

Utilization. Domestic use of wheat in 2013/14 was down year-to-year by 132 

million bushels to 1,256 million bushels due to sharply lower feed and residual use 

as U.S. corn production recovered from the previous year’s drought. Feed and 

residual use was down 142 million bushels from the previous marketing year to 228 

million bushels. Other domestic uses were up slightly. Increased flour use due to 

population growth and a slight increase in per capita use was were partially offset 

by continued high extraction rates—the amount of flour produced from a given 

quantity of wheat—resulting in a small increase in bushels of wheat milled 

compared with the year before. Seed use was also up slightly. U.S. exports for 
3 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2014/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

2013/14 were up 164 million bushels from 2012/13 to 1,176 million bushels as 

markets expanded for U.S. wheat. 

Ending stocks. Total U.S. ending stocks for 2013/14, at 590 million bushels, were 

down 128 million bushels from those of 2012/13. Though U.S. ending stocks have 

dropped each year since 2009/10’s 976 million bushels, 2013/14 stocks are still 284 

million bushels above the ending stocks for 2007/08, which were the lowest since 

the late 1940s. 

Price. The season-average price (SAP) for 2013/14 was $6.87 per bushel, down 

from the record high $7.77 per bushel for 2012/13. The high SAP for 2012/13 was 

partially the result of the high corn prices due to the Midwest drought of 2012. 
2013/14 All-Wheat Situation 

4 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Global Wheat Production 

Global wheat production was at a record level with favorable weather in many 

wheat-growing countries. The high world wheat prices and favorable weather 

resulted in record global production. World production increased 56 million metric 

tons (mmt) from 2012/13 to a record 714 mmt in 2013/14. This sharp increase was 

the result of large year-to-year increases in many countries. 

U.S. Supplies for 2013/14 

Total U.S. supplies for 2013/14, at 3,021 million bushels, were down 97 million 

bushels from the previous year (table 1). Lower production and beginning stocks 

were only partially offset by higher imports. 

Beginning Stocks. Beginning stocks for 2013/14 were 718 million bushels and 

were down 25 million from 2012/13. 

Imports. Imports for 2013/14, at 169 million bushels, were up 46 million bushels 

from 2012/13. 

Production. All-wheat production was estimated at 2,135 million bushels for 2013, 

down 117 million bushels from 2012. All-wheat harvested area for 2013 was 45.3 

million acres, down 3.5 million acres from the previous year. The U.S. all-wheat 

yield was a record 47.1 bushels per acre, exceeding the record previous record of 

46.2 bushels for 2012. 

U.S. planted area for 2013/14, at 56.2 million acres, was up 0.9 million acres from 

the 2012 acreage of 55.3 million. Winter seedings were up year to year while spring 

seedings were down year-to-year. The increased winter wheat seedings occurred 

because higher SRW seedings and white winter seedings more than offset smaller 

HRW seedings. Drought in the Southern and Central Plains was part of the reason 

for reduced HRW seedings. SRW seedings were up year to year because of an 

earlier row crop harvest compared to the previous year. HRS and durum seedings 

were both down from the previous year as excessive moisture and cool temperatures 

in the Northern Plains resulted in substantial prevented plantings. 

Though wheat seeded area has (all classes, combined) increased 3 years in a row, 

this does not reverse the 30-year downward trend for wheat area in the United 

States. In 1981 and 1982, wheat planted area was 88.3 million acres and 86.2 

million acres, respectively (fig. 1). With the enhanced planting flexibility in the 

1996 and succeeding Farm Acts, relatively low returns led to the substitution of 

competing crops for wheat, particularly on the Plains. For information about the 

long-term forces behind this large decline in wheat area in the United States, follow 

the link in the box, “USDA Wheat Baseline, 2013-22.” 
5 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

U.S. all-wheat harvested area for 2013 decreased year to year despite an increase in 

planted area. The decrease in the all-wheat harvested area was mostly due to 

reduced seeding of hard red winter (HRW) and hard red spring (HRS), the former 

due to abandonment and the latter due to prevented plantings because of excessive 

moisture during spring seeding time. These acreage losses were partially offset by a 

1.9 million acre increase of soft red winter (SRW) planted area because of favorable 

weather at seeding time. 

All-wheat harvested area was further reduced by a high rate of HRW abandonment 

due to dry weather and spring freeze damage. The abandonment rate (the proportion 

of planted acres not harvested due to damage) for the 2013 HRW crop was 31.9 

USDA Wheat Baseline, 2013-22 

Each year, USDA updates its 10-year projections of supply and utilization 

for major field crops grown in the United States, including wheat (see 

Overview of the USDA Baseline Process for more information). One key 

use of the projections is as a “baseline” from which to analyze the impacts 

of potential policy changes affecting U.S. agriculture. 

This discussion summarizes analysis underlying the wheat projections for 

2013-22. Details about projections for the U.S. macroeconomy, other U.S. 

crops, U.S. livestock, farm income and food prices, and U.S. and global 

agricultural trade, which are critical components of this analysis, can be 

found in the Agricultural Baseline Projections topic page. 

The U.S. wheat sector faces many long-term challenges: 

 The long-term projections point to smaller U.S. wheat planted area, 

a continuation of a long-term trend as profitability relative to other 

crops—particularly corn and soybeans—has declined.

 The sharp decline in domestic food use of wheat since 2000—

arising from changing consumer preferences—appears to have 

ended. Future growth is likely to correspond with population 

growth. 

 Internationally, in addition to traditional global competitors 

(Canada, Argentina, Australia, and the European Union), Ukraine 

and Russia have emerged as new competitors with the United States 

in foreign markets in years when their production is high. The 

overall result in the projections is a smaller U.S. share of an 

expanding world wheat trade market. 

For more information on USDA’s 10-year baseline projections for wheat, 

see http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/agricultural-baselineprojections.aspx 
6 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

percent compared with 17.4 percent in 2012. The abandonment rate for HRW is 

highly variable because of the frequent occurrence of drought in the Central and 

Southern Plains. In recent years it has ranged from a low of 15.8 percent in 2010 to 

as high as 33.7 percent in 2002. 

The all-wheat yield for the 2013 crop was a record despite a 4.1-bushels-per-acre 

decrease in HRW yield from 2012 due to adverse weather conditions. Favorable 

growing conditions boosted the 2013 yield of durum, SRW, soft white spring 

(SWS), and HRS by 4.5 bushels, 3.4 bushels, 3.2 bushels, and 1.8 bushels, 

respectively. The SRW and HRS yields for 2013 were record highs. 

All-wheat production for 2013 was down 117 million bushels from 2012. This 

decrease was primarily driven by year-to-year production decreases for HRW and 

HRS that exceeded the SRW production increase. For HRW, the reduced harvested 

area and lower yields drop output 253 million bushels from 2012. The reduced area 

for HRS more than offsets higher yields, so output is down 14 million bushels year 

to year. SRW’s larger area and higher yield raises output 148 million bushels from 

2012. All-white wheat production was up 12 million bushels from 2012, as larger 

area more than offset the impact of slightly lower yields. 

Domestic Demand Continues To Exceed Foreign Demand for U.S. Wheat 

in 2013/14 

U.S. domestic use for 2013/14 decreased by 130 million bushels year to year to 

1,256 million bushels, but was still 80 million bushels larger than exports. For 

comparison, exports exceeded domestic use in only 1 of the previous 5 marketing 

years, 2010/11. Total domestic use in 2013/14 was down year to year because of 

sharply reduced feed and residual use. U.S. exports, at 1,176 million bushels for 

2013/14, were up from 2012/13 by 164 million bushels, mostly due to greatly 

expanded exports to China and Brazil. 

Feed and Residual Use. Feed and residual use for 2013/14 was down 142 million 

bushels from 2012/13 to 228 million bushels. The sharp decrease in feed and 

residual use was the result of a recovery of U.S. corn production in 2013 from the 

severe drought in the United States that caused large corn production losses in 2012 

in the U.S. Corn Belt States. The larger supplies of corn and the resulting lower 

prices reduced the financial incentives in 2013/14 to include wheat in 

livestock rations. 

Total Food Use. Total domestic food use of wheat, at 951 million bushels, was up 

6 million bushels from 2012/13. Increased flour use with a rising population and a 

slightly higher per capita flour use was partially offset by continued high 

extraction rates. 
7 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Area:

Planted Million acres 60.5 63.6 59 56.6 54.3 55.3 56.2

Harvested Million acres 51.0 56.0 49.8 46.9 45.7 48.8 45.3

 

Yield Bushels per acre 40.2 44.8 44.3 46.1 43.6 46.2 47.1

 

Supply:

Beginning stocks Million bushels 456 306 657 976 862 743 718

Production Million bushels 2,051 2,512 2,209 2,163 1,993 2,252 2,135

Imports 1/ Million bushels 113 127 119 97 112 123 169

Total supply Million bushels 2,620 2,945 2,984 3,236 2,968 3,118 3,021

 

Disappearance:

Food use Million bushels 948 927 919 926 941 945 951

Seed use Million bushels 88 78 68 71 76 73 77

Feed and residual use Million bushels 16 268 142 85 157 370 228

Total domestic use Million bushels 1,051 1,273 1,129 1,081 1,174 1,388 1,255

Exports 1/ Million bushels 1,263 1,015 879 1,291 1,051 1,012 1,176

Total disapperance Million bushels 2,314 2,288 2,008 2,373 2,226 2,400 2,431

 

Ending stocks Million bushels 306 657 976 862 743 718 590

CCC inventory 2/ Million bushels 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

 

Stocks-to-use ratio, percent 13.2 28.9 48.4 35.7 33.2 29.9 24.3

 

Loan rate Dollars per bushel 2.75 2.75 2.75 2.94 2.94 2.94 2.94

Direct payment rate Dollars per bushel 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52 0.52

Farm price 3/ Dollars per bushel 6.48 6.78 4.87 5.70 7.24 7.77 6.87

 

Totals may not add due to rounding.

1/ Includes flour and selected other products expressed in grain-equivalent bushels. 2/ Stocks ow ned by USDA's Commodity Credit Corporation 

(CCC). CCC-ow ned inventory held in the Bill Emerson Humanitarian Trust w as liquidated in 2007/2008 w hlen w orld w heat stocks fell to a 26-

year low . 3/ U.S. season-average price based on monthly prices w eighted by monthly marketings. 

Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and supporting materials.

Table 1--Wheat: U.S. market year supply and disappearance

Item and unit

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

U.S. wheat planted area, 1950-20131 

Figure 1

Million acres

Notes: 1Includes winter wheat area planted in the preceding fall. 

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats.

The 2013/14 flour extraction rate continued at a very high level by historical 

standards. High flour extraction rates mean that fewer bushels of wheat need to be 

milled to produce a given quantity of flour. 
8 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

The flour extraction rate varies partly with the plumpness of the grain kernels and 

partly with the diligence with which mills optimize flour extraction. Kernal 

plumpness is greater when the wheat crop is not stressed by moisture shortages or 

high temperatures during the grain-filling production stage. With very high wheat 

prices, there is a greater incentive for mill managers to frequently adjust their mills 

to maximize flour extraction. 

Per Capita Flour Use. Per capita all-wheat flour use for 2013 is estimated at 134.7 

pounds, up 0.3 pounds from the 2012 estimate but down 3.6 pounds from 2007, a 

recent peak. The 2013 per capita food use is down 11.6 pounds from the 2000 level 

when flour use started dropping sharply, apparently due to increased consumer 

interest in low-carbohydrate diets. Time series data of flour consumption can be 

found in table 29 at http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/wheat-data.aspx. 

From the early 1970s until the late 1990s, U.S. wheat producers could count on 

rising per capita food use to expand the domestic market for their crop. The growth 

of the domestic market during this time period reflected changes that included the 

boom in away-from-home eating, the desire of consumers for greater variety and 

more convenience in food products, promotion of wheat flour and pasta products by 

industry organizations, and wider recognition of the health benefits of eating highfiber, grain-based foods. 

100

110

120

130

140

150

1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

Calender years

Figure 2

U.S. per capita wheat flour use, 1964 to 2013 

Pounds/person

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service. 
9 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Exports. U.S. wheat exports for 2013/14 totaled 1,176 million bushels, up from 

1,012 million bushels for 2012/13. Exports rose year to year for all classes of wheat 

except for white wheat. 

World wheat production was up from 2012/13 and reached a new record high, with 

expansion in many exporting countries. Black Sea production recovered sharply 

from the effects of drought the previous year. EU and Australian production was up 

substantially from the previous year. Wheat production in Canada reached a record 

high, up 10 million tons from 2012/13. Indian wheat production, though down 

slightly from the previous year’s record, was still high by historical standards. 

Argentina production was up slightly year to year, but still very low by historical 

standards. Black Sea wheat production was up 39 percent from 2012/13, led by the 

increase in Russia. 

Longer term, Ukraine’s farmers have been increasing corn production for export, 

mainly to the EU. These corn shipments to the EU are replacing feed wheat from 

Eastern European farmers. Ukraine now produces and exports more corn 

than wheat. 

Canada’s wheat crop was a record one. Early season exports were constrained by 

transportation problems, particularly rail. Canada’s railways were used to transport 

oil to such an extent that there was a shortage of engines available to pull grain cars. 

This shortage slowed the initial pace of Canadian wheat exports to world markets. 

However, Canada’s exports for the year were the highest since 1991/92. 

The highlight of the 2013/14 U.S. wheat export story is the large exports of SRW to 

China and HRW to Brazil. These two countries are traditionally low-volume 

importers of U.S. wheat. China is mostly self-sufficient in wheat, but adverse 

weather conditions in back-to-back crops led to a slight decrease in good quality 

wheat. China was then forced to import wheat for storage, blending and feed 

purposes. Brazil’s imports of U.S. wheat were due to the lack of supplies from 

Argentina, its main wheat supplier. Argentina production was low a second year in 

a row, constraining its capacity to supply Brazilian wheat import demand. The 

Argentine Government policy was to limit exports to prevent inflationary pressure 

while re-building stocks due to a tight supply situation. Brazil’s importers turned to 

the United States to supply their wheat requirements. This led to record U.S. HRW 

wheat exports to Brazil. 

Ending Stocks. Total U.S. ending stocks for 2013/14, at 590 million bushels, were 

down 128 million bushels from 2012/13. Though U.S. ending stocks have dropped 

each year since 2009/10’s 976 million bushels, stocks for 2013/14 are still 284 

million bushels above 2007/08 ending stocks. Ending stocks for 2007/08 were the 

lowest since the late 1940s (fig. 3). 

 

The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio for 2013/14 was 24 percent, below the 30 percent and 

the 33 percent for 2012/13 and 2011/12, respectively. The 2013/14 ratio is much 

lower than the recent high of 49 percent for 2009/10. The U.S. stocks-to-use ratio 

averaged 24 percent in the 3 years before the 2007/08 price spike. In 2007/08, the 

U.S. stocks-to-use ratio dropped to 13 percent as world demand for U.S. wheat 

exports rose to a 15-year high. 
10 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Monthly Wheat Prices 

The monthly prices for 2013/14 were significantly lower than for 2012/13. 

Abundant world supplies held down global wheat prices, forcing down U.S. prices 

to be competitive in export markets. Early in the marketing year, offers of Black 

Sea wheat and EU wheat from August forward undercut U.S. prices. Farmgate 

monthly prices dropped from $7.37 per bushel in June to $6.80 in September (fig. 

4). There was a brief rally through December, but farmgate prices resumed their 

decline to a wintertime low of $6.50 in February with export competition from 

many suppliers, including Australia, Canada, the European Union and Russia. 

Wheat prices then rallied again as plunging wheat crop ratings amid harsh winter 

conditions and ongoing drought in the Southern Plains, along with geopolitical 

unrest between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region, triggered a strong rally 

from the winter lows in the wheat market. Then the mid-April freeze hit the 

Southern Plains, taking another bite out of the HRW crop and pushing prices up. 

Prices then dropped from an early May peak with the realization that winter wheat 

in most of the rest of the Northern Hemisphere was in good condition and another 

huge world wheat crop is expected. 

The season-average farmgate price (SAP) for 20113/14 was $6.87 per bushel. This 

compares with the record-high SAP of $7.77 for 2012/13. 

Government Payments to the Wheat Sector Remained Low in 2013 

The U.S. wheat sector is eligible for various forms of Government assistance, 

including marketing assistance loans, direct and countercyclical payments, crop 

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1950/51 1959/60 1968/69 1977/78 1986/87 1995/96 2004/05 2013/14

U.S. wheat ending stocks, 1950/51-2013/14

Figure 3

Millions bushels

Marketing year (June-May)

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Quick Stats.
11 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

insurance, and export assistance through credit guarantees and food donation 

programs.1 Some payments are dependent on market prices, so when prices are 

high, those payments are relatively low. 

Marketing Loans. Marketing assistance loans (MALs) provide eligible producers 

with interim financing on their production. Instead of selling their crop immediately 

at harvest, producers may pledge their production as loan collateral, receiving loan 

proceeds equal to the loan rates times the quantity placed under loan. Under 

marketing loan provisions, producers may repay a MAL at the lower of the loan rate 

plus accrued interest or the posted county price (PCP). If the PCP is below the loan 

rate, the amount by which the loan rate exceeds the PCP is the marketing loan gain 

(MLG) rate. Farmers are also eligible for a loan deficiency payment (LDP) in lieu 

of obtaining a MAL. The LDP rate is the amount by which the loan rate exceeds the 

PCP—the same as the MLG rate. 

With high prices, 2013 crop marketing loan activity for wheat was very low. 

Marketing loans were made on only 24.7 million bushels (1 percent of production), 

continuing a recent trend. Use of marketing loans has been very limited in recent 

years: 27.5 million bushels in 2012; 36.0 million bushels in 2011; 66.5 million 

bushels for 2010; and 102.5 million bushels for 2009, and no marketing loan 

benefits (including marketing loan gains, LDPs, and eLDPs (electronic LDPs)) have 

been paid over the past several years. 

Direct Payments (DP). DPs are decoupled (separated) from current production and 

prices, providing farmers with a predetermined payment that does not depend on 

market conditions. DP expenditures related to wheat base acres have averaged $1.1 

billion annually under the 2002 and 2008 Farm Acts. 

$2.00

$3.00

$4.00

$5.00

$6.00

$7.00

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

$11.00

June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May

Figure 4

Monthly all-wheat prices 

Dollars/bushel

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service,Quick Stats.

2011/12

2012/13

2010/11 2009/10

2013/14

1

For more information on these 

programs, see 

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farmeconomy/farm-commodity-policy.aspx 
12 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Counter-cyclical Payments (CCP). CCPs are decoupled from current production, 

but linked inversely to season-average farm prices. CCP rates rise as the seasonaverage market price falls below certain levels. With the 2013/14 season average at 

$6.87 per bushel, no CCPs were made for wheat base acres for the 2012 crop. The 

CCP price trigger is $3.65 per bushel. 

Crop Insurance Subsidies. In the 2013 crop year, about 48.6 million acres or 

about 86 percent of planted wheat acres were insured under the Federal crop 

insurance program, including both yield and revenue products. About $2.27 billion 

was paid to wheat producers in crop insurance indemnities on the 2013 crop. Total 

crop insurance premiums paid for wheat were about $1.98 billion, of which about 

$1.25 billion were premium subsidies paid by the Government. The total cost of the 

premiums rose as the price of wheat increased from 2007 (fig. 5). Participation in 

revenue insurance in 2013 was about 84 percent of wheat-insured acres. 

Export Assistance and Food Aid. U.S. food assistance programs provide 

agricultural products to individual countries with food aid needs through direct 

donations and through loans at concessional rates. The United States provides food 

assistance through Public Law (P.L.) 480 (Food for Peace) and the Food for 

Progress Program. Title I of P.L. 480 finances sales of commodities under longterm credit arrangements to developing countries that are deemed to have 

insufficient foreign exchange. Title II provides for donations for emergency food 

relief and nonemergency humanitarian assistance to international organizations, 

such as the World Food Program and to recipient governments. Section 416(b) of 

the Agricultural Act of 1949, as amended, provides for donations of Commodity 

Credit Corporation (CCC)-owned surplus commodities to developing countries. 

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Figure 5

Higher wheat prices raised insurance premiums from 2007

Total insurance premium, right axis

Percent $ millions

Percent planted acres insured

Subsidized share 

of premium

Marketing year (June‐May)
2013/14 Wheat Situation by Class 

13 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

All Wheat Production Down Largely Because of Decline in 

HRW Production

HRW and durum 2013/14 wheat supplies were down year to year because of 

reduced production.2 Supplies of the other classes were up from the previous year, 

especially SRW and HRS. SRW supplies were up with larger production and HRS 

supplies were larger due to increased imports from Canada. White wheat supplies 

were nearly unchanged. Total domestic use was down year to year mostly due to 

lower feed and residual use of HRW. Total exports were up year to year led by 

increases of HRW and SRW. 

Total ending stocks are down 18 percent year to year led by decreases for HRW and 

white. Only HRS stocks were up year to year, up 2 percent. The ending stocks of 

HRW, white, SRW, and durum were down 31 percent, 21 percent, 9 percent, and 7 

percent, respectively. 

HRW monthly prices ended the 2013/14 marketing year on a seasonal high. The 

other four classes had their season-high monthly prices in June at the start of the 

marketing year. The seasonal low for monthly prices for all the classes was 

in February 

HRW Production Down With Severe Drought and Spring Freeze 

HRW production for 2013, at 747 million bushels, was down 251 million bushels 

from 2012 with fewer harvested acres and lower yields (table 2). Severe drought 

conditions at seeding time contributed to smaller HRW planted area. HRW 

production was further reduced as continued dry conditions and spring freeze 

damage resulted in low yields and a high rate of abandonment, particularly in 

western Texas, eastern Colorado, western Nebraska, Wyoming, and South Dakota. 

HRW planted area for 2013 was 29.7 million acres, down 0.1 million acres from 

2012. The harvest-to-planted ratio for 2013 was 69 percent, much lower than 2012 

ratio of 83 percent. Thus, HRW harvested area for 2013 was only 20.4 million acres 

compared to 24.6 million acres in 2012. The average harvest-to-planted ratio for the 

five years before 2012 was 86 percent with a low of 84 percent and a high of 

89 percent. 

Drought conditions during the growing season and spring freeze damage reduced 

2013 yields to 36.6 bushels per acre. The 2012 HRW yield was 40.6 bushels 

per acre. 

HRW supplies in 2013/14, at 1,109 million bushels, were down 224 million 

bushels from the previous marketing year because of sharply reduced production. 

Both carryin stocks and imports were up slightly year to year. Total use, at 873 

million bushels, was 117 million bushels below the previous year (fig. 6). Total 

domestic use was down 182 million bushels to 427 million. Domestic use was down 

because of both lower food use and feed and residual use. HRW food use was down 

because the lower output that reduced the availability for milling. For some wheat 

products, HRS was substituted for HRW in the mill grind. Feed and residual use of 

HRW was also down with the lower HRW output and the recovery of U.S. corn 

2

For background information on the U.S. 

wheat classes, see 

http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops/wh

eat/background.aspx
14 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

production from the previous year’s drought. HRW exports were up 65 million 

bushels year to year to 446 million bushels largely because of expanded trade with 

Brazil (fig. 7). Brazil’s imports of U.S. wheat were due to the lack of supplies from 

Argentina, its main wheat supplier. This led to a large increase in U.S. HRW wheat 

exports to Brazil compared to previous years. 

The net result of the supply and use changes from 2012/13 to 2013/14 was that 

HRW ending stocks were down 107 million bushels year to year to 236 million 

bushels. This level of ending stocks results in a stocks-to-use ratio of 27 percent, 

down from 35 percent in 2012/13 and 37 percent for 2011/12. The HRW stocks-touse ratio was as high as 48 percent for 2009/10 and as low as 14 percent in 2007/08, 

the year of the global wheat shortage. The HRW stocks-to-use ratio averaged 23 

percent over the 5 years before 2007/08. 

Monthly farmgate prices for HRW began the market year at $7.35 per bushel and 

ended the year at $7.39—the highest monthly price of the year—with a large yearto-year drop in ending stocks and the weather reduced production for the 2013 

HRW crop. The decline in HRW ending stocks accounted for more than 80 percent 

of the year-to-year decline in all-wheat ending stocks. The monthly HRW prices 

during the marketing year fluctuated between an October high of $7.25 and a 

February low of $6.64 (fig. 8). The season-average price (SAP) for 2013/14 HRW 

was $7.03 per bushel, below the record $7.56 for 2012/13, but up from $6.92 and 

$6.49 for 2011/12 and 2010/11, respectively. 

HRS Production Down From 2012 Because of Fewer Acres 

HRS production for 2013, at 491 million bushels, was down 13 million bushels 

from 2012 because of fewer planted and harvested acres (table 3). Higher yields 

partially offset the reduced acreage. HRS planted area was smaller because 

excessive moisture and cool temperatures on the Northern Plains resulted in late 

seeding and prevented plantings. For example, at the end of the first week of May, 

North Dakota and Minnesota did not report any spring wheat seeding compared to 

47 percent and 80 percent that was completed by that time the previous year. South 

Dakota and Montana each reported 6 percent seeded compared to 90 percent and 45 

percent completed the previous year. The 2013 HRS crop achieved record yields 

despite a despite a delayed planting season because the growing season conditions 

were excellent. 

HRS planted area for 2013 was down 0.7 million acres from 2012 to 10.9 million 

acres. Harvest area was also down from 2012 by 0.8 million acres to 10.7 million 

acres. The HRS 2013 yield was 45.8 bushels per acre, up from 44 in 2012. HRS 

yields averaged 41.7 bushels per acre over the previous 5 years. 

HRS supplies in 2013/14, at 733 million bushels, were up 35 million bushels from 

the previous marketing year as the lower production was more than offset by higher 

carryin stocks and imports. HRS total use, at 564 million bushels, was up 31 million 

bushels from 2012/13. Both domestic use and exports were up year to year. HRS 

food use was up as millers substituted HRS for HRW in the mill grind for some 

wheat products because of the reduced HRW output. 
15 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Table 2--Hard red w inter w heat supply and demand 1/

Item 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

 Million acres

Area:

 Planted 32.6 30.8 30.0 29.3 33.0 31.6 31.7 28.2 28.5 29.6 29.7

 Harvested 25.6 23.4 24.6 21.3 25.7 26.1 24.3 23.9 21.5 24.6 20.4

 Bushel per harvested acre

Yield 41.7 36.6 37.8 32.0 37.2 40.0 38.1 42.1 36.4 40.6 36.6

 Million bushels

Supply:

 Beg. stocks 188 227 193 215 165 138 254 385 386 317 343

 Production 1,071 856 930 682 956 1,046 926 1,006 783 998 747

 Imports 0 1 0 1 1 2 2 1 0 18 19

 Total supply 1,260 1,084 1,123 898 1,121 1,185 1,182 1,392 1,170 1,333 1,109

Domestic use:

 Food 378 382 370 366 397 385 361 359 404 400 367

 Seed 35 33 33 37 35 36 32 32 33 33 34

 Feed & residual 109 86 77 50 15 63 34 -3 19 175 27

Total domestic 522 502 481 453 448 483 427 389 455 608 428

 Exports 510 389 428 280 536 447 370 617 397 382 446

 Total use 1,033 891 908 733 984 930 797 1,005 853 990 874

Ending stocks 227 193 215 165 138 254 385 386 317 343 235

Stocks-to-use ratio, % 22.0 21.7 23.7 22.5 14.0 27.3 48.3 38.4 37.2 34.6 26.9

Dollars per bushel

Farm price 2/ $3.23 $3.29 $3.38 $4.53 $6.15 $6.90 $4.84 $6.49 $6.92 $7.56 $7.03

1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use.

2/ Season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook .

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1992/93 95/96 98/99 01/02 04/05 07/08 10/11 13/14

HRW HRS SRW White Durum

Figure 6

U.S. domestic wheat use through 2013/14

Million bushels

Marketing year (June-May)

HRW = Hard red winter. HRS = Hard red spring. SRW = Soft red winter.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook.

The net result of these supply and use changes was nearly unchanged HRS ending 

stocks for 2013/14 compared to 2012/13. Ending stocks for 2013/14 were up 4 

million bushels from 2012/13 to 169 million bushels. The 2013/14 ending stocksto-use ratio was 30 percent, just slightly below the 31 percent for 2012/13. The ratio 

for these two years was less than the recent high of 47 percent for 2009/10. For 

comparison, the stocks-to-use ratio was only 12 percent for the price-spike year of 

2007/08, and averaged 29 percent over the 5 years prior to 2007/08. 
16 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Monthly farmgate prices for HRS began the marketing year at $7.73 per bushel 

and dropped steadily to a season low of $6.39 for the month of February. HRS 

prices then recovered to end the marketing year at $6.85 per bushel. The SAP for 

HRS for 2013/14 was $6.73 per bushel, down sharply from $8.27 and $8.38 for 

2012/13 and 2011/12, respectively. 

SRW Production Up 38 Percent in 2013 

SRW production for 2013, at 568 million bushels, was up 156 million bushels 

from 2012 (table 4). The 2013 harvested area was up 2 million acres from 2012 to 

8.9 million acres due to higher plantings. SRW seedings were up 2 million acres 

because of the timely row-crop harvest during the fall before seeding of winter 

wheat. The SRW seedings for 2012 were down because of the late row-crop 

harvest. 

SRW production was also boosted year to year because of higher yields. Favorable 

2013 growing conditions raised SRW yields 3.2 bushels per acre from 2012 to 63.7 

bushels per acre. 

SRW supplies for 2013/14, at 713 million bushels, was up 98 million bushels from 

2012/13 as higher production and imports more than offset lower carryin stocks. 

Total SRW use, at 599 million bushels, was up 109 million bushels compared with 

the previous marketing year mostly because of higher exports. SRW exports were 

up partly because of large shipments to China. China is mostly self-sufficient in 

wheat, but adverse weather conditions led to a poor domestic crop. China was then 

forced to import wheat to meet domestic consumption needs. 

SRW ending stocks for 2013/14, at 113 million bushels, were down 11 million 

bushels from 2012/13. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2013/14 was 19 percent, 

down from 25 percent for 2012/13. The 2013/14 ratio was also less than the 

2010/11 and 2009/10 levels of 54 percent and 69 percent, respectively. The stocksto-use ratio for 2007/08, the price-spike year, was 13 percent, much less than the 

average of the previous 5 years of 23 percent. 

Monthly farmgate prices received by SRW producers began the 2013/14 

marketing year with a monthly price of $6.92 per bushel— the high for the year. 

SRW monthly prices moved downward in an uneven pattern to a seasonal low of 

$5.90 before rebounding to $6.73 in May. The 2013/14 SAP for SRW was $6.53 

per bushel, down from the record $7.26 for 2012/13. For comparison, the SAP for 

2011/12 and 2010/11 was $6.78 and $5.16, respectively. 
17 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

1990/9192/93 94/95 96/97 98/99 00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13

HRW HRS SRW White Durum

Figure 7

Wheat exports up in 2013/14

Million bushels

Marketing year (June-May)

HRW = Hard red winter. HRS = Hard red spring. SRW = Soft red winter.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook.

 

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Hard red winter

Soft red winter

Hard red spring

White

Durum

Figure 8

Average monthly prices received by wheat farmers, June 2000-May 

2014

Dollars per bushel

Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service, Agricultural Prices.
18 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Table 3--Hard red spring w heat supply and demand 1/

Item 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

 Million acres

Area:

 Planted 13.1 13.0 13.3 14.4 12.7 13.4 12.6 12.8 11.6 11.7 10.9

 Harvested 12.7 12.5 12.9 13.4 12.4 12.8 12.3 12.5 11.3 11.5 10.7

 Bushels per harvested acre

Yield 39.2 42.2 36.0 32.2 36.3 39.9 44.5 45.1 35.2 43.9 45.8

 Million bushels

Supply:

 Beg. stocks 145 157 159 132 117 68 142 234 185 151 165

 Production 500 525 467 432 450 510 546 564 396 503 491

 Imports 9 8 12 50 48 45 41 28 35 44 78

 Total supply 654 690 638 614 615 623 729 826 616 698 733

Domestic use:

 Food 223 228 227 236 233 224 239 247 223 228 266

 Seed 19 21 21 19 20 17 17 14 19 13 19

 Feed & residual -17 -33 -22 -6 -11 30 26 40 -19 60 33

Total domestic 225 216 226 248 243 271 281 301 223 301 318

 Exports 272 315 280 248 304 210 214 340 243 232 246

 Total use 497 531 506 497 547 481 495 641 465 533 564

 Ending stocks 157 159 132 117 68 142 234 185 151 165 169

Stocks-to-use ratio, % 31.6 29.9 26.1 23.5 12.4 29.5 47.3 28.9 32.5 31.0 30.0

Dollars per bushel

Farm price 2/ $3.63 $3.51 $3.70 $4.48 $7.16 $7.39 $5.26 $6.54 $8.38 $8.27 $6.73

1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use.

2/ Season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook .

Table 4--Soft red w inter w heat supply and demand 1/

Item 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

 Million acres

Area:

 Planted 8.3 8.2 6.1 7.4 8.6 11.4 8.2 4.9 8.5 8.0 10.0

 Harvested 6.8 7.0 5.1 6.2 7.0 10.2 7.0 4.0 7.4 6.8 8.9

 Bushels per harvested acre

Yield 55.6 54.2 59.9 63.2 50.0 60.5 55.8 54.7 61.5 60.5 63.7

 Million bushels

Supply:

 Beg. stocks 55 64 88 106 109 55 171 242 171 185 124

 Production 380 380 308 390 352 618 391 219 453 413 568

 Imports 22 22 26 20 14 34 32 29 32 18 21

 Total supply 457 466 423 515 475 707 594 490 656 616 713

Domestic use:

 Food 153 155 155 165 150 155 156 150 155 152 155

 Seed 16 12 14 16 21 16 9 16 15 19 16

 Feed & residual 87 89 71 80 41 166 77 43 135 127 145

Total domestic 256 255 241 261 212 337 243 210 306 298 317

 Exports 138 122 76 145 208 199 109 109 165 193 282

 Total use 393 378 317 406 420 536 352 319 471 492 599

 Ending stocks 64 88 106 109 55 171 242 171 185 124 114

Stocks-to-use ratio, % 16.3 23.3 33.4 26.8 13.1 31.9 68.8 53.6 39.3 25.2 19.0

Dollars per bushel

Farm price 2/ $3.17 $3.21 $3.19 $3.38 $5.20 $5.78 $4.35 $5.16 $6.78 $7.26 $6.53

1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use.

2/ Season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook .
19 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

White Wheat Production Up Slightly for 2013 

Total white wheat production for 2013, at 271 million bushels, was up 14 million 

bushels from 2012 (table 5). Total white wheat planted and harvested areas were 4.2 

million acres and 4.0 million acres, respectively. Planted area was up 0.3 million 

acres from 2012 and harvested area was up 0.2 million acres. The all-white wheat 

yield for 2013 was 68.1 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels per acre from 2012. 

The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white winter wheat were 

as follows (hard white winter = HWW and soft white winter = SWW): 

2013 HWW SWW 

Planted area (million acres) 0.36 3.15 

Harvested area (million acres) 0.28 3.05 

Yield (bushels/acre) 38.9 70.8 

Production (million bushels) 11.1 216.0 

2012 HWW SWW 

Planted area (million acres) 0.33 3.0 

Harvested area (million acres) 0.29 2.91 

Yield (bushels/acre) 45.5 71.1 

Production (million bushels) 13.4 206.6 

The planted and harvested areas, production, and yield for white spring wheat were 

as follows (hard white spring = HWS and soft white spring = SWS): 

2013 HWS SWS 

Planted area (million acres) 0.15 0.52 

Harvested area (million acres) 0.14 0.50 

Yield (bushels/acre) 74.5 65.9 

Production (million bushels) 10.5 32.9 

2012 HWS SWS 

Planted area (million acres) 0.12 0.48 

Harvested area (million acres) 0.11 0.46 

Yield (bushels/acre) 74.1 62.8 

Production (million bushels) 8.3 28.7 

Total 2013/14 white wheat supplies, at 341 million bushels, were up 13 million 

bushels from those of 2012/13 as slightly higher production more than offset lower 

beginning stocks and imports. Total white wheat use, at 291 million bushels, was 

up 26 million bushels compared with 2012/13. Higher domestic use more than 

offset lower exports in 2013/14. 

White wheat ending stocks for 2013/14, at 50 million bushels, were down 13 

million bushels from those of a year earlier. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 

2013/14 was 17 percent, compared to 24 percent the previous year. The recent high 

for the ending stocks to use ratio was 35 percent in 2009/10, while it reached a low 
20 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

of 16 percent during the price-spike year of 2007/08, and averaged 23 percent over 

the previous 5 years. 

Monthly farmgate prices received by white wheat producers began the year at 

$7.29 per bushel in June— the high for the 2013/14 marketing year. Monthly prices 

fluctuated, but trended lower to a marketing-year low of $6.61 in February before 

rebounding to $7.12 per bushel in May. The 2013/14 SAP at the farmgate for white 

wheat was $6.85 per bushel, down from the record $7.88 in 2012/13, but up 

compared to the 2011/12 price of $6.42 and the 2010/11 price of $5.88 per bushel. 

Durum Production Down 25 Percent for 2013 

Durum production was down 24 million bushels from 2012 to 58 million bushels 

for 2013 with lower planted and harvested areas (table 6). As with HRS, the 

excessive moisture and cool temperatures in the Northern Plains delayed seedings 

and led to prevented durum plantings. Durum planted area was 1.4 million acres, 

down 0.7 million acres from 2012. Harvested area was down 0.8 million acres to 

1.3 million acres. The 2013 average yield was 43.3 bushels per acre, a 4.9-bushelper-acre increase above 2012 because of favorable weather during the 

growing season. 

Table 5--White w heat supply and demand 1/

Item 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

 Million acres

Area:

 Planted 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.3 4.0 4.5 4.1 4.2 4.4 3.9 4.2

 Harvested 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.1 3.7 4.3 3.9 4.0 4.3 3.8 4.0

 Bushels per harvested acre

Yield 59.5 64.5 63.7 61.5 59.1 59.4 61.9 68.1 73.9 68.3 68.0

Million bushels

Supply:

 Beg. stocks 75 72 63 78 44 37 64 80 85 64 63

 Production 297 305 297 251 221 258 241 272 314 257 271

 Imports 11 11 10 109897877

 Total supply 383 388 370 339 275 303 314 359 407 328 341

Domestic use:

 Food 85 75 85 85 85 85 83 85 85 85 85

 Seed 7665 6 6 6 6 5 6 5

 Feed & residual 27 36 27 9 -23 13 3 1 34 -1 30

 Total domestic 119 118 118 100 68 103 91 92 124 91 120

 Exports 192 208 174 195 169 136 143 182 219 175 171

 Total use 311 326 292 295 238 239 234 274 343 265 291

 Ending stocks 72 63 78 44 37 64 80 85 64 63 50

Stocks-to-use ratio, % 23.2 19.3 26.7 14.9 15.5 26.8 34.2 31.0 18.7 23.8 17.2

Dollars per bushel

Farm price 2/ $3.54 $3.52 $3.13 $4.14 $7.23 $6.01 $4.52 $5.88 $6.42 $7.88 $6.85

1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use.

2/ Season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook.
21 

Wheat Year in Review (Domestic)/WHS-2015/January 2015 

Economic Research Service, USDA 

Table 6--Durum supply and demand 1/

Item 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

 Million acres

Area:

 Planted 2.9 2.6 2.8 1.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 2.5 1.3 2.1 1.4

 Harvested 2.9 2.4 2.7 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.4 2.5 1.3 2.1 1.3

 Bushels per harvested acre

Yield 33.7 38.0 37.2 29.5 34.1 31.3 44.0 41.2 36.8 38.4 43.3

 Million bushels

Supply:

 Beg. stocks 28 26 38 40 21 8 25 35 35 25 23

 Production 97 90 101 53 72 80 105 101 47 82 58

 Imports 21 29 32 41 40 38 35 33 36 36 44

 Total supply 145 145 171 135 134 127 165 169 118 143 125

Domestic use:

 Food 73 70 80 86 83 78 80 84 75 80 78

 Seed 3 5 3 4 4 4 4 2 3 2 2

 Feed & residual -3 2 3 -15 -6 -4 2 3 -12 9 -8

Total domestic 73 77 85 74 81 78 86 90 66 91 73

 Exports 46 31 45 40 45 24 44 44 27 29 31

 Total use 119 108 131 114 126 102 130 133 93 120 103

 Ending stocks 26 38 40 21 8 25 35 35 25 23 22

Stocks-to-use ratio, % 21.8 35.2 30.5 18.4 6.3 24.5 26.9 26.3 26.9 19.2 21.4

Dollars per bushel

Farm price 2/ $3.97 $3.85 $3.46 $4.43 $9.92 $9.26 $5.47 $5.98 $9.68 $8.18 $7.46

1/ ERS estimates of area, yield, and domestic use.

2/ Season-average price based on monthly prices weighted by monthly marketings.

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Wheat Outlook .

Durum supplies in 2013/14, at 125 million bushels, were 18 million bushels below 

the previous year. Lower production and beginning stocks more than offset higher 

imports. Durum total use, at 103 million bushels, was down 16 million bushels 

from 2012/13 as domestic use was down sharply and exports were only 

slightly higher. 

Ending durum wheat stocks for 2013/14, at 22 million bushels, were down 1 

million bushels year to year. The ending stocks-to-use ratio for 2013/14 was 21 

percent, higher than the prior year’s 19 percent. The ratio averaged 27 percent for 

the three previous years. The ratio for 2007/08 price-spike year was only 7 percent, 

much lower than the average of 26 percent for the previous 5 years. 

Monthly farmgate prices received by durum wheat producers began the 2013/14 

marketing year at $8.51 per bushel—the high for the marketing year. Durum 

monthly prices then drifted downward to a seasonal low of $6.43 in February before 

rebounding to $7.21 in May. The SAP at the farmgate for 2013/14 for durum was 

$7.46 per bushel, down from $8.18 for 2012/13 and significantly less than the $9.68 

for 2011/12, but higher than the 2010/11 price of $5.98 per bushel. Durum farmgate 

prices were record high in 2007/08 with a SAP of $9.92 per bushel.