I :\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99

Crystal Ball Report

Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59

Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23

Ssu tins

5/26/99 8:38 AM

Assumption-. Commercial Electricity Dist.

11cc v -3-3-25-99.xIsJElec Price Dist ,

.036 a

.Oa

.018 -I

.-F11 .aoo ,

1.29

I

Can 97 Avg ®ec Price

11.72 2215 3257 43.00

1 : Industrial Electricity Price f;,-retc v4.3-3-25-99-xIsiElec Price Dist -

tr bial Price Dist

0.87 9.62 18.37 27.12 35.87

Page 1

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 - -

Crystal Ban Report 

Simulation started on 3/25/99 at 10:19:59 

Simulation stopped on 3/25/99 at 10:24:23 

Assumptions 

5/26/99 8:38 AM 

Assumption: commercial Electricity Price Dist. 

[Icc v4.3-3-25-99.xlsJElec price Dist ' 

Com 97 Avg Sec Price 

.036 

£' 

.CI lTZ! 

lie 

.CI 

(:) 

... .018 C. 

(jJ 

.~ .COO 

of! -(jJ 

c::: .<XX) 

1.29 11.72 22.15 32.57 43.00 

Assumption: Industrial Electricity Price DiS'tkc_V4.3-3-25-99.xISJEleC price Dist, 

Industrial Price IJist 

.056 

£' 

:s .042 lie 

.CI 

(:) 

... .028 C. 

(jJ 

> :;::: .014 

lie 

(jJ 

c::: .<XX) 

0.87 9.62 1&37 27.12 35.87 

page 1 
Z abed

8LEz L6I'17 SFL8 969'9

sly °SZ°2°£° n X31] [ ° 3-s, M J8

11

tip

I..^°CJr

(® I (I S ° ®r- ^! ®

&L' L6t1 '9 s£L'8 969

I

I

F 'LO'

° sl t

. ,,_ °

l °^Z® X11

(®e 1) + _ '' °

s8D- z9,o Wo Lb'o- 65oL9'

914

r ZLb

a -1 [E - - - ° 317

r Lob' 0

Iz

:8 66/9Z/S 66-SZ°2\66-2 sung ool\z)oI\lselleq\:I 28

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM - -

Electricity Price 

[Icc _ V4.3-3-25=99.xlsJElec price Dist ' 

Epsilon 

.230 

.~ 

.CI .172 

~ 

.CI 

Cl 

... .115 0.. 

Ii) 

:> 

:;::; .OS! 

~ 

"ii3 

c: .000 

-0.85 .Q.51 .Q.17 0.18 0.52 

Assumption: Oper .. Hr .. 1F40 (Com..) 

lice _ v4.3=3=25=99.xlsJOper Hr Dist = 

Oper. HI'-1F40 (Com) 

.. 143 

;§ 

.107 .CI 

~ 

.CI 

Cl 

... .071 0.. 

Q.) 

.~ .036 

~ -

Q.) 

c: .000 

259 2,378 4.497 6,616 8,735 

Assumption: oper" Hr .. 2F40 (Com..> 

Oper. HI' - 2F40 (Com) 

.143 

~ 

:E .107 

~ 

.CI 

Cl 

... .071 0.. 

Q.) 

:> 

:;::; .036 ~ 

"ii3 

c: .000 

259 2,378 4.497 6.616 8,735 

page 2 
I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99

Oper. Hr - 2F96 (Comm)

Llcc

Oper. It -2F96( )

ASSumption: m Hr - 2F96 (Ind.)

[Icc 4.3-3-25-99-xGs] er Hr Dist -

.138 a

.104

.000 °-

147

Oper. It -2F96 Ord)

2146 4,146 6,145

m oper. (Comm)

5/26/99 8:38 AM

.3-3-25-99.xls'er Hr Dist -

8144

Ilcc v4.3-3-25-99.x1s]per Hr Dist -

.147

.074

.037

.000

209

er. It - 2F96HO (Goan)

2193 L111 ii ^^ ^_^ 4,177 6,162 8,146

Page 3

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM - -

Assumption: oper" Hr .. 2F96 (Com..) 

[Icc _ v4.3-3-25-99.xlsJOper HI" Dist -

Oper ..... - 2F96 (Com) 

.177 

~ 

.Q .132 ~ 

.Q 

... = .008 c.. 

(b) 

> :;:::: .044 

~ 

a:; 

c:: .(XX) II I I I I 

1.800 3.375 4.944 6.513 

Assumption: Oper .. Hr .. 2F96 find,,} 

UCC_V4.3-3-25-99.xlsloper HI" Dist - C 

Oper ..... - 2F96 Ond.) 

.138 

~ 

.Q .104 

~ 

.Q 

... = .000 c.. 

(b) 

.;a: .035 -~ 

a:; 

c:: .(XX) 

147 2,146 4.146 6, 145 8,144 

Assumption: Oper .. Hr .. 2F96HO (Com..) 

[Icc _ v4.3-3-25-99.xlsJOper HI" Dist • 

Oper ..... - 2F96HO (Com) 

.147 

~ 

.Q .111 

~ 

.Q 

... = .074 c.. 

a.l 

> 

:;:::: .em ~ 

a:; 

c:: .oco 

2ll 2,193 4.177 6.162 8,146 

page 3 
I:\ballast\Icc\Icc rubs 3-99\3-25-99

[lee-V4.3-3-25-99.'.-

.132

.099

.033

125 2130 4,136 8,147

5/26/99 8:38 AM

flee v4m---99mxls] allast Life Dist

last We Disfbibudon (hr)

18,000 35,907 53,814 71,721

Assumption-. Incr. Price Dist 1F40 - T12 CC

89,628

flee v .3-3-25-99exls1 allas rice NO

Incr. R" 1 -T12

Page 4

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM - -

.. 2F96HO 

Oper ..... - 2F96HO Ond.) 

.132 

.Q 

~ .099 

till 

.Q 

= Il... .066 c.. 

~ 

.~ .033 -till 

"i3 

a: .000 

125 2,130 4.136 6.141 8.147 

Assumption: Ballast Life Distribution {hr} 

[Icc V4.3-3-25-99.xlslBanast Life Dist 

Ballast Ufe Distribution (hr) 

18,000 53,814 71.721 89.628 

Assumption: Incr .. Price Dist 1 F40 .. T12 CC 

lice v4.3-3-25-99.xlsIBaliast price Dis1 

Incr. Price Dist 1 F40 - 1'12 CC 

$3.76 $5.30 $5.84 $8.38 $9.92 

Page 4 
I:\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

Assumption-. Incr. Price

[Icc v&3-3- 25-99.xlsl allast Price Disl

Incr. Price Dist 1F40 -712 ERB

Ilcc v .3- -25-99.x151 sliest Price DiSl

ncr. Price Dist 1 F40 -18 ERS

$5.18 sam

: Incr. Price Dist

Ilcc v4.3-3-25-99.xlsI9allast Price Dist

truer. Price Dist 2F40 - 712 CC

t

Page 5

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

. Assumption: Incr .. Price Dist 1 F40 .. T12 ERS 

Ucc V4.3-3-25-99.xlsJBanast price Dis1 

Incr. Price Dist 1F40 -1't2 ERS 

Assumption: Incr .. price Dist 1 F40 .. T8 ERS 

Ucc V4.3-3-25-99.xlsIBallast price Dis1 

Incr. Price Dist 1 F40 -18 ERS 

Assumption: Incr. Price Dist 2F40 .. T12 CC 

lice v4.3-3-25-99.xlslBallast price Dis1 

Incr. Price Dist 2F40 -1't2 cc 

$4.97 $3.04 $11.07 $13.11 

page 5 
1e\ballast\Icc\Icc runs 3-99\3-25 -99 5/26/99 8:38

__ .

['cc v - -2 - .xis' allast Price DIM

L r

[lee v . - -25-99.xls]allast Price DISI

O n ione. Incr. Price t 3F4 -712 ERS (W o n - T a n d e m wired)

[lee v4.3-3-25-99.xis]nallast Price Dist

Page 6

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\iCC Juns _3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

2 ERS 

lice V4.3-3-25-99.xlslsallast price Dis1 

Incr. Price !lst 2F4O -Tl2 ERS 

$327 $8.84 $11.40 '$13.97 $16.53 

Assumption: Incr" Price Dist 2F32 .. fS ERS 

[Icc v4.3-3-25-99.xlsIsanast price Dis1 

Incr. Price !lst 2F32 -18 ERS 

$4.60 $6.49 $8.37 $1025 $1214 

Assumption: Incr .. price Dist 3F40 .. ,T12 ERS {Non-Tandem Wired} 

(Bcc V4.3-3-2S-99.xISJBallast Price Dist 

Incr. Price !lst3F40 - Tl2 ERS 

$5.76 $8.11 $10.47 $1283 $15.18 

page 6 
I:\ballast\Icc\lcc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

ASSUmption: Incr. Price Dist ' TS ERS ( )

Ilcc v4.3-3-25-99.xls] allast Price Dist

Ire. Price Dist 3F32 -18 ERS

Ra

0

: Incr. Price Dist 4F40 - T12 ERS

llcc v4.3-3-25-99.xls] allast Price Dist

Incr. Price Dist4F40 -112 ERS

0

M.

Assumption: Incr. Price Dist 4F32 - TS ERS

Ilcc v4.3-3-25-99.x15]9allast Price Dist

Incr. Price Dist 4F32 -18 EIS

0

0

CL

Page 7

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\ICc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM - -

Assumption: Incr .. Price Dist 3F32 .. TS ERS (Non"Tandem Wired) 

nee V4.3-3-2S-99.xlsIBaliast price Dist 

Incr. Price Cist 3F32 -18 ERS 

(SB.84) ($4.94) ($4.D3) ($3.12) ($2.22) 

Assumption: Incr .. Price Dist 4F40 .. T12 ERS 

[Icc v4.3-3-2S-99.xlslBaUast price Dist 

Incr. Price Cist4F40 -"2 ERS 

$).37 $17.03 $2186 $24.00 

Assumption: Incr .. Price Dist 4F32 .. TS ERS 

[Icc V4.3-3-2S-99.xls1Banast price Dist 

Incr. Price Cist 4F32 -18 ERS 

page 7 
I:\ballast\Icc\icc runs 3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM

llcc v - - -2 - 9<xlsl all st Price Dist

T12 CC

[Icc v4.3-3-25-9 - ls]allast Price ist

Incr. Price Dist 2 1•D -112

i

[Icc v4.3-3-25-99.1s] allast Price Dist

End of Assumptions

Page 8

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67H

1:\ballast\lcc\lcc Juns _3-99\3-25-99 5/26/99 8:38 AM 

price Dist 2F96 .. 2IERS 

lice v4.3=3=25=99.xlsIBaliast price Dist 

Incr. Price Dist 2f96 - 1'12 ERS 

$9.55 $13.46 $17.37 $21.28 $25.19 

Assumption: Incr .. price Dist 2F96HO .. T12 CC 

lice _ V4.3-3-25-99.xlsJBallast price Dist 

Incr. Price Dist 2f96HO -1'12 cc 

Assumption: Incr .. price Dist 2F96HO .. T12 ERS 

$6.63 

End of Assumptions 

Incr. Price Dist 2f96HO -1'12 ERS 

$9.34 $1205 $14.70 

page 8 

[Icc V4.3-3-25-99.xlsJBanast price Dist 

$17.47