10A-i 

### APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS

ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................ 10A-1

10A.2 STANDARDS-CASE MARKET-SHARE MATRICES ..................................... 10A-1

LIST OF TABLES

Table 10A.2.1 Standards-Case Market-Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10

Percent Lu men Increase Sensitivity) ........................................................ 10A-110A-1 

### APPENDIX 10A. SUPPLEMENTARY SCENARIO FOR THE SHIPMENTS ANAL YSIS

10A.1 INTRODUCTION

In this appendix, the U.S. Departm ent of Energy (DOE) presents the standards-case market-share matrix for the 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity scenario. As discussed in Chapter 10, in the 10 percent lume n increase scenario, DOE assumes that a portion of residential IRL consumers will buy a more effi cacious lamp at the same or hi gher wattage as they do in the base case. This incorporation of non-energy- saving lamp designs results in an overall higher lumen output per IRL in the residential sector. To quantify the percenta ge of consumers that purchase same-wattage lamp designs, DOE assumes that the average initial lumen output of IRL in the standards case is 10 percent higher than that of the base case. Under this assumption, shipment forecasts and cumulative shipment impact s in the residential 10 percent lumen increase sensitivity are very similar to the Roll-up, BR Product Substitution scenario, which is shown in chapter 10 of the TSD. Appendix 5A, 6A, a nd 7A contain additional engineering, energy consumption, and price results relate d to these sensitivity scenarios.

10A.2 STANDARDS-CASE MARKET-SHARE MATRICES

DOE constructed market-share matrices to characterize shipments of lamps in the

standards case. Table 10A.2.1 displays the residential standards-case market-share matrix in the 10 percent lum en increase sensitivity. As seen in the table below, in this sensitivity scenario, DOE assumes that in the standards case a portion of IRL consumers purchase same-wattage or higher-wattage lamp designs.

Table 10A.2.1 Standards-Case Market-Share Matrix for Residential IRL Sockets (10 Percent Lumen Increase Sensitivity)

Stock in
2011* Stock in
2013** Stock in
2042 TSL Lamp Design Installed Lamp Price % % % 90W, 14.6 lm/W, 2500 hrs, Halogen 5.33 41 41 75W, 14.0 lm/W, 2500 hrs, Halogen 5.33 32 32 50W, 12.6 lm/W, 3000 hrs, Halogen 4.70 27 27BaseCase

Total 100 100 90W, 15.5lm/w, 2500hrs, Improved Halogen 6.31 41 41 75W, 14.7lm/w, 2500hrs, Improved Halogen 6.31 32 32 50W, 13.2lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 5.68 23 23 65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 4 4TSL 1

Total 100 100 90W, 16.3lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.96 12 12 69W, 15.3lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.96 7 7 88W, 16.7lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.96 2 2 50W, 13.9lm/w, 6000hrs, Long Life HIR 6.33 6 6 79W, 16.6lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.78 29 29 66W, 15.9lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.78 13 13TSL 2

79W, 16.6lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.78 9 910A-2 45W, 14lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.15 5 5 50W, 14.4lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved Halogen 6.15 9 9 65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 6 6

Total 100 100 70W, 18lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.96 31 31 100W, 20.3lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.96 10 10 60W, 17.5lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.96 25 25 80W, 18.8lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 7.96 7 7 42W, 14.8lm/w, 3000hrs, HIR 6.33 13 13 50W, 16.5lm/w, 4000hrs, HIR 6.33 7 7 65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 7 7TSL 3

Total 100 100 66W, 19.8lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 34 34 90W, 22.6lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 7 7 55W, 19.1lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 29 29 90W, 22.6lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 8.33 3 3 40W, 17lm/w, 4000hrs, Improved HIR 7.70 9 9 50W, 18lm/w, 3000hrs, Improved HIR 7.70 4 4 65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 14 14TSL 4

Total 100 100 60W, 21lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 33 33 90W, 24.6lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 8 8 52W, 20.3lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 29 29 83W, 24.5lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.92 3 3 40W, 19.1lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.29 7 7 50W, 20.3lm/w, 4200hrs, Improved HIR Plus 8.29 3 3 65W, 9.5lm/w, 2000hrs, BR30 Incandescent IRL 1.53 16 16TSL 5

Total 100 100 *Base-case input only. **Standards-case input only.