## Population **modeling of endangered**  **species**

**Valery E**  **. Forbes School of Biological**  **Sciences EMPM Meeting**  **October 28, 2014** **NAS Report advocates population**  **modeling for T&E species**  **Provides little/no specific guidance**   **EU has been moving forw ard**  **in the use of population**  **modeling for ERA**   **Workshops (Pellston -**  **DK, LEMTOX, RUC09,**  **Modelink)**  **Research Programs (CREAM)**   **Scientific Opinions (EFSA,**  **SCHER/SCENIHR/SCCS)** 

## CropLife **America 2014**  **Science Forum –** 

**Why?**

### * **Total US T&E: 1560 & going**  **up!** • **Plants: 886**  • **Fish: 164** • **Birds: 99** • **Mammals: 93** • **Clams: 88** • **Insects: 72** • **Snails: 46** • **Reptiles: 37** • **Amphibians: 36** ***A s**  **of 15 Oct**  **2014** 

## How big is the problem? **How d**  **o w e**  **decide w hich**  **species to**

**model?**  **How d**  **o w e**  **decide w hich**  **models to use?**  **What do w e**  **do if w e’re**  **missing critical data?**   **How t**  **o address uncertainties in model outputs?**   **How d**  **o the models fit into the decision**   ** making framew** **ork?** 

## We can’t model every single species!

###  **Overall Aim: Gain better understanding of**  **population models**  **and how they c**  **an be used in**  **T&E species assessments for pesticides in US.**   **Main Outputs: Set of recommendations**  **to be published**  **in a peer -**  **reviewed journal; SETAC**  **Vancouver Session**  

## CropLife **America Science Forum** • **Valery**

**F orbes,**  **Univ**

**o f**  **Nebraska (chair)** • **Richard Brain, Sy ngenta**  • **Dan Edw ards, BA** **SF** • **Nika Galic, Univ** 

**o f Nebraska**  • **Tilghman Hall,**  **Bay er**  **CropScience** • **Joy H**  **onegger, Monsanto** • **Caroly n**  **Mey er,**  **AR CA**  **DIS** • **Dw ay**  **ne Moore, Intrinsik Env**  **ironmental Sciences**  • **Diane Nacci, US EPA** • **Rob Pastorok, Integral**  **Consulting** • **Thomas Preuss, Bay**  **er CropScience**  • **Stev e**  **Railsback, Humboldt**  **State Univ** **ersity** • **Chris Salice, Tow son Univ**  • **Richard Sibly ,**  **Univ o**  **f Reading**  • **Brigitte Tenhumberg,**  **Univ o**  **f Nebraska** • **Pernille Thorbek, Sy ngenta**  • **Magnus Wang, WSC Scientific**  

## Expert Panel Members **Individual -**  **Level Models**   **Toxicokinetic /** **toxicody namic**   **Energy b**  **udget**  **Population -**  **Level Models**  **Scalar**  **Matrix**  **Metapopulation**  **Individual -**  **based** 

## The Modeling Toolbox

###  **Provide quantitative risk estimates**   **Incorporate realistic variability** **in environmental**  **and demographic**  **factors**  **Integrate complex patterns of exposure and**  **effects**  **Include present factors that have caused the**  **species to be listed (e.g., habitat loss, invasive species) or resulted in positive**  **management action as baseline**  

## We conclude that models for T&E RA **should:**

## We advocate for:

• **A multipartite advisory** **c ommittee to guide model**  **implementation and use**  • **More sy stematic**  **collection, digitization,**  **and dissemination of data for listed species**  • **Good Modeling Practice**  • **Review of existing population**  **models and their applicability**  • **Case studies to demonstrate proof of concept**

## Priorities for Research:

• **Quantitative analy**  **sis of**  **causes of species**  **listings to guide model**  **development** • **Systematic assessment**  **of the relative role of toxicity** **versus other factors in driving pesticide risk**  • **S tudy** **how interactions betw**  **een density**  **dependence and pesticides influence risk**  • **Pragmatic approaches**  **for assessing indirect**  **effects of pesticides on listed species** • **Peer -**  **review ed publication**  **of the w orkshop**  **outputs –**  **under review in IEAM**  • **SETAC Vancouver Session:**  **Population modeling**  **to assess pesticide risks to representative,**  **threatened and endangered species: State -**  **of -** **the**   ** art and future directions; Chairs: Forbes,** **Thorbek, Pastorok**  **; Tue a.m.** • **Literature review o**  **f available models –**  **in progress; preliminary results to**  **be presented in Vancouver** 

## Next Steps

## Structure of the Literature Review

• **Level of organization** • **Model ty pe**  • **Family /Species**  • **Species status** • **Stressors studied** • **Processes modeled**  • **Model outputs** • **Risk estimate** • **Degree of readiness** • **Sensitivity analy**  **sis** • **Density d**  **ependence** • **Time horizon** • **Spatial scale** • **Validation**

### Contact **Info: vforbes3@unl.edu**