# DRAFT

Gas Furnace Regional Energy Impacts Author: Michael McNeil Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

**COLOR SCHEME**Extrapolation Input from Engineering and LCC Analysis

**WORKSHEET DESCRIPTION**  National Impacts Summary Tables and Charts of Primary Energy Savings and Financial Impacts for All Product Classes Shipments Summary Tables and Charts of Shipments Forecast for All Product Classes NES Gas Furnace -NW Calculation of Primary Energy Savings and Financial Impacts for Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces Base Case Shipments Calculation of Base Case Shipments for all Product Classes Change in Shipments Impacts of Standards on Market Shares in New Housing New Housing Market Share Historic Data and Forecast of Market Shares in New Housing Market Share Model Determination of Elasticities for New Housing Market Share Forecast Regional Housing and Fuel Price Historical Data and Forecast for Analyzing Regions Separately Historic Market Shares Data Historic Heating Fuel and Equipment Data for New Homes LCC Inputs Design Option Input Data: Associated Costs and Unit Energy Consumption Retirement Function Probability Function Determining Replacement of Equipment New Housing Forecast Forecast of New Housing Fuel Prices and Heat Rates Forecasts of Energy Prices and Site-Source Conversion Factors Market Shift Heating Load Calculation of Heating Load of Housing Likely to Shift Away from Gas in Standards Cases Price Indices Equipment and Energy Price Indices used in Determination of Price Elasticities for Market Share Forecast

Chart GF Shipments Chart of Historical Gas Furnace Shipments and Modeled Shipments Chart GF Market Share Chart of Historical Market Share - Historical and Model Forecast Chart NWGF Finanical Impacts Charts of Incremental Equipment Costs, Operating Cost Savings and Net Savings for Gas Furnaces

0900006480fa7774.xls Julie Osborn 1/27/20126:59 PM

# DRAFT

Equipment and Energy Price Indices used in Determination of Price Elasticities for Market Share Forecast

0900006480fa7774.xls Julie Osborn 1/27/20126:59 PM

# NES Furnace Regional A**naly sis Spreadsheet Flow** **Chart**

Historic Market Shares Data LCC Inputs

NES

-Product Class Base Case Shipments **Historical data and User input**  **worksheets**

**NES model and accounting**  **worksheet engines**  Fuel Prices and Heat Rates

National Impacts Summary **Data output and Summary**  **worksheets** Shipments Summary

# NES Furnace Regional A**naly sis Spreadsheet Flow** **Chart**

Retirement

RegionalHousing and Fuel Price

New Housing Market Share

Change in Shipments Base Case Shipments Market Share Model

Base Case Consumption

## DRAFT

Discount Rate **7%**Reference Case 1 

### Current Year **2007**Low Economic Grow

th3 

### Economic Growth High Economic Grow th

**REGION** Cold States 1

Warm States



## Source Energy Savings Matrix (Quads) **Net Present Value Matrix (Billions $2006)**

**TSL 1 TSL A**  **TSL 2 TSL 3**  **TSL B TSL 4**  **TSL 5 TSL 1**  **TSL A TSL 2**  **TSL 3 TSL B**  **TSL 4 TSL 5**  

### Gas Furnace - Non Weatherized 0.011 0.011 0.196 0.196 1.704 1.704 3.103 0.034 0.034 0.208 0.208 1.244 1.244 -6.169



## Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace

**BA SE**  **TSL 1 TSL A**  **TSL 2 TSL 3**  **TSL B TSL 4**  **TSL 5**

Design 78% AFUE - Baseline80% AFUE -

Increased HX Area80% AFUE -

Increased HX Area81% AFUE -

Increased HX Area 81% AFUE -

Increased HX Area 90% AFUE90% AFUE96% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) Shipments 2015-2038 (Millions) 37.03 37.03 37.03 36.97 36.97 36.47 36.47 34.85 Incremental Costs ($ Billions) 0.01 0.01 1.42 1.42 16.81 16.81 66.63 Operating Cost Savings ($ Billions) 0.24 0.24 4.20 4.20 36.47 36.47 66.45 Net Savings, not discounted ($ Billions) 0.24 0.24 2.78 2.78 19.66 19.66 -0.18 Net Present Value ($ Billions) 0.03 0.03 0.21 0.21 1.24 1.24 -6.17 Source Savings 2015- 2038 (Quads) 0.01 0.01 0.20 0.20 1.70 1.70 3.10 

## National Impacts Summary

**STA NDA** **RD LEVEL** Gas Furnace - Non Weatherized

-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10

TSL 1 TSL ATSL 2 TSL 3TSL BTSL 4 TSL 5**$ B** **i l** **l i** **o n** **s Q** **u a** **d s**  

### National Impacts

**- Non** 

**- We** **atherized Gas Furnace**

SourceEnergy Savings (Quads)

Net Present Value (Billions) Reference Case

Cold States

0900006480fa7774.xls 1/27/2012

# Shipments - Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace + Weatherized Gas Furnace

**2010** 1.72 64.0% 1.102 3.08

Base 63.7% 1.056 4.86

TSL 1 63.7% 1.056 4.86 TSL 2 63.5% 1.052 4.85

TSL 3 63.5% 1.052 4.85

TSL 4 61.6% 1.021 4.83



# Shipments Summary

**- Mobile Home Gas Furnace**

Year

**2010** 0.217 64.0% 0.139 0.091 Total Year CompletionsGas Furnace Share Total

New Placements Replacements MH PlacementsGas Furnace

Share Replacements 

# Shipments Summary

**2020**

1.66 New Housing

**2010** 0.217 64.0% 0.139 0.091

**2020** Base 55.6% 0.133 0.066 Trial Standard Level 1 56.8% 0.136 0.066 Trial Standard Level 2 56.8% 0.136 0.066 Trial Standard Level 3 56.6% 0.136 0.066 Trial Standard Level 4 56.6% 0.136 0.066



# Shipments - Oil Furnace + Gas Boiler + Oil Boiler

M.S. % 2020 2030 2020 Oil Furnaces 0.5% 0.008 0.007 0.082 Gas Boilers 4.1% 0.068 0.064 0.094 Oil Boilers 1.8% 0.030 0.028 0.130 New Housing Total Shipments 0.240

# Oil Hot Water Boiler

**BA SE**  **TSL 1 TSL 2**  **TSL 3**

Design Base Case 83% AFUEIncreased HX Area 83% AFUEIncreased HX Area 83% AFUEIncreased HX Area Shipments 2015-2038 (Millions) 2.76 2.76 2.76 2.76 Net Savings, not discounted ($ Billions) 0.32 0.32 0.32 Net Present Value ($ Billions) 0.044 0.04 0.04

Source Savings 2015- 2038 (Quads) 0.011 0.011 0.011 **DESIGN OPTION**

# Shipments - Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace + Weatherized Gas Furnace

0.16 6.10

7.08

7.08

7.08

7.08

7.08

0.142 Total Conversions

0.19 Total

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0

2001 2011 2021Millions 

# Gas Furnace Shipments

Conversions New Housing Replacements



# 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

2001 2011 2021Millions 

# Oil Furnace Shipments

New Housing Replacements Less Conversions



# 0.60 

# Gas BoilerShipments

Conversions 

# 0.142

0.134 0.134 0.134 0.130 0.119

2030 0.065 0.083 0.095 Total Shipments 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60

2001 2011 2021Millions 

# Gas BoilerShipments

Conversions New Housing Replacements



# 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

2001 2011 2021Millions 

# Oil BoilerShipments

New Housing Replacements Less Conversions

# TSL 4

84% AFUEIncreased HX Area 2.76 0.45

0.02

0.023

# 2031

2031

2031

2031

# Shipments (Millions)**Remaining Stock (Millions)**  **AF UE of Shipments** 

**(Percent) UEC of Shipments**  **(MMBtu)** NWGF NWGF NWGF NWGF 2015 1.13 24.57 85.4 

# 66.9 2016 1.13 24.68 85.4 

# 66.9 2017 1.16 24.77 85.4 

# 66.9 2018 1.21 24.85 85.4 

# 66.9 2019 1.28 24.94 85.4 

# 66.9 2020 1.35 25.05 85.4 

# 66.9 2021 1.42 25.19 85.4 

# 66.9 2022 1.50 25.35 85.4 

# 66.9 2023 1.57 25.54 85.4 

# 66.9 2024 1.64 25.77 85.4 

# 66.9 2025 1.69 26.05 85.4 

# 66.9 2026 1.73 26.36 85.4 

# 66.9 2027 1.75 26.69 85.4 

# 66.9 2028 1.74 27.04 85.4 

# 66.9 2029 1.73 27.40 85.4 

# 66.9 2030 1.72 27.76 85.4 

# 66.9 2031 1.70 28.14 85.4 

# 66.9 2032 1.68 28.52 85.4 

# 66.9 2033 1.66 28.89 85.4 

# 66.9 2034 1.64 29.26 85.4 

# 66.9 2035 1.63 29.62 85.4 

# 66.9 2036 1.64 29.97 85.4 

# 66.9 2037 1.65 30.31 85.4 

# 66.9 2038 1.68 30.64 85.4 

# 66.9

Total 2015-2038 37.0 647.3 2,050.4 1,606.7 

# Base Case Consumption

# Source Energy

**(Quads)** NWGF 1.81 1.82 1.82 1.83 1.83 1.84 1.85 1.86 1.87 1.88 1.90 1.93 1.95 1.97 2.00 2.03 2.05 2.08 2.11 2.14 2.16 2.19 2.21 2.24

47.4

### ShipmentsAffected StockAvg UEC of Shipments UEC Stock ShipmentsAffected StockAvg UEC of ShipmentsAvg UEC of

Stock Gas Efficiency,

Site SavingsElec, Eff. Site

Savings Market Shift

from GasMarket Shift

to ElecTotal Primary

Savings

Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads

2015 1.126 0.00 66.9 66.95 1.126 0.00 66.9 66.92 0.00000 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 2016 1.134 1.13 66.9 66.95 1.134 1.13 66.9 66.92 0.00003 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 2017 1.160 2.26 66.9 66.95 1.160 2.26 66.9 66.92 0.00006 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0001 2018 1.212 3.42 66.9 66.95 1.212 3.42 66.9 66.92 0.00009 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0001 2019 1.275 4.63 66.9 66.95 1.275 4.63 66.9 66.92 0.00012 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0001 2020 1.349 5.91 66.9 66.95 1.349 5.91 66.9 66.92 0.00016 0.001 0.00000 0.000 0.0002 2021 1.424 7.26 66.9 66.95 1.424 7.26 66.9 66.92 0.00019 0.002 0.00000 0.000 0.0002 2022 1.499 8.68 66.9 66.95 1.499 8.68 66.9 66.92 0.00023 0.002 0.00000 0.000 0.0003 2023 1.569 10.18 66.9 66.95 1.569 10.18 66.9 66.92 0.00027 0.002 0.00000 0.000 0.0003 2024 1.638 11.75 66.9 66.95 1.638 11.75 66.9 66.92 0.00031 0.003 0.00000 0.000 0.0004 2025 1.694 13.39 66.9 66.95 1.694 13.39 66.9 66.92 0.00035 0.003 0.00000 0.000 0.0004 2026 1.732 15.07 66.9 66.95 1.732 15.07 66.9 66.92 0.00040 0.003 0.00000 0.000 0.0005 2027 1.747 16.77 66.9 66.95 1.747 16.77 66.9 66.92 0.00044 0.004 0.00000 -0.001 0.0005 2028 1.742 18.45 66.9 66.95 1.742 18.45 66.9 66.92 0.00049 0.004 0.00000 -0.001 0.0006 2029 1.732 20.07 66.9 66.95 1.732 20.07 66.9 66.92 0.00053 0.005 0.00000 -0.001 0.0006 2030 1.717 21.63 66.9 66.95 1.717 21.63 66.9 66.92 0.00057 0.005 0.00000 -0.001 0.0007 2031 1.698 23.10 66.9 66.95 1.698 23.10 66.9 66.92 0.00061 0.005 0.00000 -0.001 0.0007 2032 1.677 24.47 66.9 66.95 1.677 24.47 66.9 66.92 0.00065 0.006 0.00000 -0.001 0.0007 2033 1.657 25.71 66.9 66.95 1.657 25.71 66.9 66.92 0.00068 0.006 0.00000 -0.001 0.0008 

# Gas Furnace - Non Weatherized

**Base Case**

**Shipments & Stock Energy**  **Savings Trial Standard Level 1** 

2033 1.657 25.71 66.9 66.95 1.657 25.71 66.9 66.92 0.00068 0.006 0.00000 -0.001 0.0008 2034 1.640 26.82 66.9 66.95 1.640 26.82 66.9 66.92 0.0007 0.006 0.0000 -0.001 0.0008 2035 1.634 27.77 66.9 66.95 1.634 27.77 66.9 66.92 0.0007 0.006 0.0000 -0.001 0.0008 2036 1.638 28.59 66.9 66.95 1.638 28.59 66.9 66.92 0.0008 0.007 0.0000 -0.001 0.0009 2037 1.653 29.29 66.9 66.95 1.653 29.29 66.9 66.92 0.0008 0.007 0.0000 -0.001 0.0009 **2038** 1.678 29.89 66.9 66.95 1.678 29.89 66.9 66.92 0.0008 0.007 0.0000 -0.001 0.0009 2039 30.40 66.95 30.40 66.92 0.0008 0.007 0.0000 -0.001 0.0009 2040 29.14 66.95 29.14 66.92 0.0008 0.007 0.0000 -0.001 0.0009 2041 27.78 66.95 27.78 66.92 0.0007 0.006 0.0000 -0.001 0.0008 2042 26.34 66.95 26.34 66.92 0.0007 0.006 0.0000 -0.001 0.0008 2043 24.83 66.95 24.83 66.92 0.0007 0.006 0.0000 -0.001 0.0008 2044 23.27 66.95 23.27 66.92 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 -0.001 0.0007 2045 21.67 66.95 21.67 66.92 0.0006 0.005 0.0000 -0.001 0.0007 2046 20.04 66.95 20.04 66.92 0.0005 0.005 0.0000 -0.001 0.0006 2047 18.39 66.95 18.39 66.92 0.0005 0.004 0.0000 -0.001 0.0006 2048 16.73 66.95 16.73 66.92 0.0004 0.004 0.0000 0.000 0.0005 2049 15.05 66.95 15.05 66.92 0.0004 0.003 0.0000 0.000 0.0005 2050 13.38 66.95 13.38 66.92 0.0004 0.003 0.0000 0.000 0.0004 2051 11.75 66.95 11.75 66.92 0.0003 0.003 0.0000 0.000 0.0004 2052 10.16 66.95 10.16 66.92 0.0003 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.0003 2053 8.65 66.95 8.65 66.92 0.0002 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.0003

### 2054 7.23 66.95 7.23 66.92 0.0002 0.002 0.0000 0.000 0.0002

2055 5.91 66.95 5.91 66.92 0.0002 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0002 2056 4.71 66.95 4.71 66.92 0.0001 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0001 2057 3.65 66.95 3.65 66.92 0.0001 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0001 2058 2.73 66.95 2.73 66.92 0.0001 0.001 0.0000 0.000 0.0001 2059 1.99 66.95 1.99 66.92 0.0001 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0001 2060 1.39 66.95 1.39 66.92 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 2061 0.93 66.95 0.93 66.92 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 2062 0.58 66.95 0.58 66.92 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 2063 0.33 66.95 0.33 66.92 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 2064 0.17 66.95 0.17 66.92 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 2065 0.07 66.95 0.07 66.92 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 2066 0.02 66.95 0.02 66.92 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000

### Operating

Cost SavingsEquipment

Cost Maintenance

Cost Net SavingsNet Present Value ShipmentsAffected StockAvg UEC of ShipmentsAvg UEC of

Stock Gas Efficiency

Site SavingsElec, Eff. Site

Savings Market Shift

from Gas Market Shift to

Elec Total Primary

Savings

Billions $2001 Billions

$2001 Billions $2001 Billions $2001 Billions

$2001 Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads
$0.00 -$0.00015 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 1.12 0.00 66.5 66.49 0.00000 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 $0.00 -$0.00015 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 1.13 1.12 66.5 66.49 0.00051 0.004 0.0001 -0.01 0.0006 $0.00 -$0.00016 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.16 2.26 66.5 66.49 0.00102 0.009 0.0001 -0.02 0.0012 $0.00 -$0.00016 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.21 3.41 66.5 66.49 0.00155 0.014 0.0002 -0.03 0.0018 $0.00 -$0.00017 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.27 4.62 66.5 66.49 0.00209 0.018 0.0003 -0.04 0.0024 $0.00 -$0.00018 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 1.35 5.90 66.5 66.49 0.00267 0.023 0.0004 -0.06 0.0031 $0.00 -$0.00019 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 1.42 7.24 66.5 66.49 0.00328 0.029 0.0005 -0.07 0.0038 $0.00 -$0.00020 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 1.50 8.67 66.5 66.49 0.00392 0.034 0.0005 -0.08 0.0045 $0.00 -$0.00021 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 1.57 10.16 66.5 66.49 0.00460 0.040 0.0006 -0.09 0.0053 $0.00 -$0.00022 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 1.64 11.73 66.5 66.49 0.00531 0.046 0.0007 -0.11 0.0061 $0.00 -$0.00023 $0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 1.69 13.37 66.5 66.49 0.00605 0.053 0.0008 -0.12 0.0070 $0.00 -$0.00024 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 1.73 15.05 66.5 66.49 0.00681 0.060 0.0009 -0.13 0.0079 $0.01 -$0.00024 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 1.74 16.74 66.5 66.49 0.00758 0.066 0.0009 -0.14 0.0087 $0.01 -$0.00024 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 1.74 18.42 66.5 66.49 0.00834 0.073 0.0010 -0.15 0.0096 $0.01 -$0.00024 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 1.73 20.04 66.5 66.49 0.00907 0.079 0.0011 -0.16 0.0105 $0.01 -$0.00023 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 1.71 21.60 66.5 66.49 0.00978 0.086 0.0011 -0.17 0.0113 $0.01 -$0.00023 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 1.70 23.07 66.5 66.49 0.01044 0.091 0.0012 -0.19 0.0121 $0.01 -$0.00023 $0.0000 $0.008 $0.00 1.67 24.43 66.5 66.49 0.01106 0.097 0.0013 -0.19 0.0128 $0.01 -$0.00023 $0.0000 $0.008 $0.00 1.65 25.67 66.5 66.49 0.01162 0.102 0.0013 -0.20 0.0134 **Energy Savings**  **Trial Standard Level 2**

**Shipments & Stock Net Present Value** 

$0.01 -$0.00023 $0.0000 $0.008 $0.00 1.65 25.67 66.5 66.49 0.01162 0.102 0.0013 -0.20 0.0134 $0.01 -$0.00022 $0.0000 $0.009 $0.00 1.64 26.78 66.5 66.49 0.01212 0.106 0.0014 -0.21 0.0140 $0.01 -$0.00022 $0.0000 $0.009 $0.00 1.63 27.73 66.5 66.49 0.01255 0.110 0.0014 -0.22 0.0145 $0.01 -$0.00022 $0.0000 $0.010 $0.00 1.64 28.55 66.5 66.49 0.01292 0.113 0.0015 -0.22 0.0149 $0.01 -$0.00022 $0.0000 $0.010 $0.00 1.65 29.25 66.5 66.49 0.01324 0.116 0.0015 -0.23 0.0153 $0.01 -$0.00023 $0.0000 $0.010 $0.00 1.68 29.85 66.5 66.49 0.01351 0.118 0.0015 -0.23 0.0156 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.011 $0.00 30.36 66.49 0.01374 0.120 0.0016 -0.24 0.0159 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.010 $0.00 29.09 66.49 0.01317 0.115 0.0015 -0.23 0.0152 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.010 $0.00 27.74 66.49 0.01255 0.110 0.0014 -0.22 0.0145 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.009 $0.00 26.30 66.49 0.01190 0.104 0.0013 -0.20 0.0137 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.009 $0.00 24.79 66.49 0.01122 0.098 0.0013 -0.19 0.0129 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.008 $0.00 23.23 66.49 0.01051 0.092 0.0012 -0.18 0.0121 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.008 $0.00 21.64 66.49 0.00979 0.086 0.0011 -0.17 0.0113 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 20.01 66.49 0.00906 0.079 0.0010 -0.16 0.0105 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.007 $0.00 18.37 66.49 0.00831 0.073 0.0009 -0.14 0.0096 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 16.70 66.49 0.00756 0.066 0.0009 -0.13 0.0087 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.006 $0.00 15.03 66.49 0.00680 0.059 0.0008 -0.12 0.0078 $0.01 $0.0000 $0.005 $0.00 13.36 66.49 0.00605 0.053 0.0007 -0.11 0.0070 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 11.73 66.49 0.00531 0.046 0.0006 -0.09 0.0061 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.004 $0.00 10.15 66.49 0.00459 0.040 0.0005 -0.08 0.0053 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 8.64 66.49 0.00391 0.034 0.0005 -0.07 0.0045

### $0.00 $0.0000 $0.003 $0.00 7.22 66.49 0.00327 0.029 0.0004 -0.06 0.0038 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 5.90 66.49 0.00267 0.023 0.0003 -0.05 0.0031 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.002 $0.00 4.70 66.49 0.00213 0.019 0.0003 -0.04 0.0025 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 3.64 66.49 0.00165 0.014 0.0002 -0.03 0.0019 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 2.73 66.49 0.00123 0.011 0.0001 -0.02 0.0014 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.98 66.49 0.00090 0.008 0.0001 -0.02 0.0010 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.001 $0.00 1.39 66.49 0.00063 0.005 0.0001 -0.01 0.0007 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.93 66.49 0.00042 0.004 0.0001 -0.01 0.0005 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.58 66.49 0.00026 0.002 0.0000 0.00 0.0003 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.33 66.49 0.00015 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0002 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.17 66.49 0.00008 0.001 0.0000 0.00 0.0001 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.07 66.49 0.00003 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000 $0.00 $0.0000 $0.000 $0.00 0.02 66.49 0.00001 0.000 0.0000 0.00 0.0000

### Operating

Cost SavingsEquipment

Cost Maintenance

Cost Net SavingsNet Present Value Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of

ShipmentsAvg UEC of

Stock Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec, Eff.

Site SavingsMarket Shift

from GasMarket Shift

to Elec Total

Primary SavingsOperating

Cost Savings

Billions $2001 Billions

$2001 Billions $2001Billions $2001Billions $2001 Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads Billions $2001 $0.00 -$0.04 $0.000 -$0.043 -$0.02 1.12 0.00 66.5 66.49 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.0000 $0.00 $0.01 -$0.04 $0.000 -$0.037 -$0.02 1.13 1.12 66.5 66.49 0.0005 0.0045 0.0001 -0.0111 0.0006 $0.01 $0.01 -$0.04 $0.000 -$0.032 -$0.02 1.16 2.26 66.5 66.49 0.0010 0.0089 0.0001 -0.0220 0.0012 $0.01 $0.02 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.028 -$0.01 1.21 3.41 66.5 66.49 0.0015 0.0135 0.0002 -0.0334 0.0018 $0.02 $0.02 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.025 -$0.01 1.27 4.62 66.5 66.49 0.0021 0.0183 0.0003 -0.0449 0.0024 $0.02 $0.03 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.021 -$0.01 1.35 5.90 66.5 66.49 0.0027 0.0233 0.0004 -0.0567 0.0031 $0.03 $0.04 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.017 -$0.01 1.42 7.24 66.5 66.49 0.0033 0.0287 0.0005 -0.0688 0.0038 $0.04 $0.05 -$0.06 $0.000 -$0.012 $0.00 1.50 8.67 66.5 66.49 0.0039 0.0343 0.0005 -0.0810 0.0045 $0.05 $0.05 -$0.06 $0.000 -$0.006 $0.00 1.567 10.16 66.5 66.49 0.0046 0.0402 0.0006 -0.0933 0.0053 $0.05 $0.06 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 1.64 11.73 66.5 66.49 0.0053 0.0464 0.0007 -0.1055 0.0061 $0.06 $0.07 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 1.69 13.37 66.5 66.49 0.0060 0.0529 0.0008 -0.1177 0.0070 $0.07 $0.08 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.015 $0.00 1.73 15.05 66.5 66.49 0.0068 0.0596 0.0009 -0.1298 0.0079 $0.08 $0.09 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.024 $0.01 1.74 16.74 66.5 66.49 0.0076 0.0663 0.0009 -0.1416 0.0087 $0.09 $0.10 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.035 $0.01 1.74 18.42 66.5 66.49 0.0083 0.0729 0.0010 -0.1532 0.0096 $0.10 $0.11 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.045 $0.01 1.73 20.04 66.5 66.49 0.0091 0.0793 0.0011 -0.1643 0.0105 $0.11 $0.12 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.055 $0.01 1.71 21.60 66.5 66.49 0.0098 0.0855 0.0011 -0.1750 0.0113 $0.12 $0.13 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.065 $0.01 1.70 23.07 66.5 66.49 0.0104 0.0913 0.0012 -0.1851 0.0121 $0.13 $0.14 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.075 $0.01 1.67 24.43 66.5 66.49 0.0111 0.0967 0.0013 -0.1946 0.0128 $0.14 $0.15 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.084 $0.01 1.654 25.67 66.5 66.49 0.0116 0.1016 0.0013 -0.2033 0.0134 $0.15 **Trial Standard Level 3**

**Shipments & Stock Net Present Value**  **Energy Savings** 

$0.15 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.084 $0.01 1.654 25.67 66.5 66.49 0.0116 0.1016 0.0013 -0.2033 0.0134 $0.15 $0.16 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.092 $0.01 1.64 26.78 66.5 66.49 0.0121 0.1060 0.0014 -0.2111 0.0140 $0.16 $0.16 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.099 $0.01 1.63 27.73 66.5 66.49 0.0125 0.1098 0.0014 -0.2180 0.0145 $0.16 $0.17 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.105 $0.01 1.64 28.55 66.5 66.49 0.0129 0.1130 0.0015 -0.2240 0.0149 $0.17 $0.17 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.110 $0.01 1.65 29.25 66.5 66.49 0.0132 0.1158 0.0015 -0.2291 0.0153 $0.17 $0.18 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.114 $0.01 1.68 29.85 66.5 66.49 0.0135 0.1182 0.0015 -0.2336 0.0156 $0.18 $0.18 $0.000 $0.183 $0.02 30.36 66.49 0.0137 0.1202 0.0016 -0.2373 0.0159 $0.18 $0.18 $0.000 $0.177 $0.02 29.09 66.49 0.0132 0.1152 0.0015 -0.2266 0.0152 $0.18 $0.17 $0.000 $0.170 $0.02 27.74 66.49 0.0126 0.1098 0.0014 -0.2154 0.0145 $0.17 $0.16 $0.000 $0.162 $0.02 26.30 66.49 0.0119 0.1041 0.0013 -0.2037 0.0137 $0.16 $0.15 $0.000 $0.154 $0.01 24.79 66.49 0.0112 0.0981 0.0013 -0.1918 0.0129 $0.15 $0.15 $0.000 $0.145 $0.01 23.23 66.49 0.0105 0.0920 0.0012 -0.1796 0.0121 $0.15 $0.14 $0.000 $0.137 $0.01 21.64 66.49 0.0098 0.0857 0.0011 -0.1674 0.0113 $0.14 $0.13 $0.000 $0.127 $0.01 20.01 66.49 0.0091 0.0792 0.0010 -0.1551 0.0105 $0.13 $0.12 $0.000 $0.118 $0.01 18.37 66.49 0.0083 0.0727 0.0009 -0.1427 0.0096 $0.12 $0.11 $0.000 $0.108 $0.01 16.70 66.49 0.0076 0.0661 0.0009 -0.1302 0.0087 $0.11 $0.10 $0.000 $0.098 $0.01 15.03 66.49 0.0068 0.0595 0.0008 -0.1177 0.0078 $0.10 $0.09 $0.000 $0.088 $0.00 13.36 66.49 0.0060 0.0529 0.0007 -0.1052 0.0070 $0.09 $0.08 $0.000 $0.078 $0.00 11.73 66.49 0.0053 0.0464 0.0006 -0.0928 0.0061 $0.08 $0.07 $0.000 $0.068 $0.00 10.15 66.49 0.0046 0.0402 0.0005 -0.0807 0.0053 $0.07 $0.06 $0.000 $0.058 $0.00 8.64 66.49 0.0039 0.0342 0.0005 -0.0691 0.0045 $0.06

### $0.05 $0.000 $0.049 $0.00 7.22 66.49 0.0033 0.0286 0.0004 -0.0580 0.0038 $0.05

$0.04 $0.000 $0.040 $0.00 5.90 66.49 0.0027 0.0234 0.0003 -0.0477 0.0031 $0.04 $0.03 $0.000 $0.032 $0.00 4.70 66.49 0.0021 0.0186 0.0003 -0.0382 0.0025 $0.03 $0.03 $0.000 $0.025 $0.00 3.64 66.49 0.0016 0.0144 0.0002 -0.0297 0.0019 $0.03 $0.02 $0.000 $0.019 $0.00 2.73 66.49 0.0012 0.0108 0.0001 -0.0223 0.0014 $0.02 $0.01 $0.000 $0.014 $0.00 1.98 66.49 0.0009 0.0079 0.0001 -0.0163 0.0010 $0.01 $0.01 $0.000 $0.010 $0.00 1.39 66.49 0.0006 0.0055 0.0001 -0.0114 0.0007 $0.01 $0.01 $0.000 $0.007 $0.00 0.93 66.49 0.0004 0.0037 0.0001 -0.0076 0.0005 $0.01 $0.00 $0.000 $0.004 $0.00 0.58 66.49 0.0003 0.0023 0.0000 -0.0048 0.0003 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.002 $0.00 0.33 66.49 0.0002 0.0013 0.0000 -0.0027 0.0002 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.001 $0.00 0.17 66.49 0.0001 0.0007 0.0000 -0.0014 0.0001 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.07 66.49 0.0000 0.0003 0.0000 -0.0006 0.0000 $0.00 $0.00 $0.000 $0.000 $0.00 0.02 66.49 0.0000 0.0001 0.0000 -0.0001 0.0000 $0.00

### Equipment Cost Maintenance

Cost Net

SavingsNet Present

Value Shipments Affected Stock Avg UEC of

ShipmentsAvg UEC of

Stock Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec, Eff.

Site SavingsMarket Shift

from GasMarket Shift to

Elec Total

Primary Savings Operating

Cost SavingsEquipment

Cost

Billions $2001 Billions

$2001 Billions

$2001Billions $2001 Millions Millions MMBtu MMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh Quads Billions $2001 Billions

$2001 -$0.04 $0.000 -$0.04 -$0.02 1.11 0.00 63.1 63.08 0.0000 0.000 0.00000 0.000 0.0000 $0.000 -$0.38 -$0.04 $0.000 -$0.04 -$0.02 1.12 1.11 63.1 63.08 0.0044 0.0479 0.0007 -0.1015 0.0051 $0.050 -$0.39 -$0.04 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.02 1.14 2.22 63.1 63.08 0.0087 0.0962 0.0013 -0.2014 0.0103 $0.103 -$0.40 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.03 -$0.01 1.19 3.36 63.1 63.08 0.0132 0.1456 0.0020 -0.3054 0.0155 $0.154 -$0.42 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.01 1.26 4.56 63.1 63.08 0.0179 0.1972 0.0027 -0.4108 0.0210 $0.206 -$0.44 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.01 1.33 5.81 63.1 63.08 0.0229 0.2515 0.0034 -0.5192 0.0268 $0.266 -$0.46 -$0.05 $0.000 -$0.02 -$0.01 1.40 7.14 63.1 63.08 0.0281 0.3090 0.0041 -0.6304 0.0329 $0.327 -$0.49 -$0.06 $0.000 -$0.01 $0.00 1.48 8.54 63.1 63.08 0.0336 0.3697 0.0049 -0.7421 0.0394 $0.396 -$0.52 -$0.06 $0.000 -$0.01 $0.00 1.55 10.02 63.1 63.08 0.0394 0.4337 0.0056 -0.8542 0.0461 $0.471 -$0.55 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 1.62 11.57 63.1 63.08 0.0455 0.5007 0.0063 -0.9661 0.0532 $0.549 -$0.57 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 1.67 13.19 63.1 63.08 0.0518 0.5707 0.0071 -1.0778 0.0606 $0.627 -$0.59 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 1.71 14.85 63.1 63.08 0.0583 0.6426 0.0078 -1.1884 0.0683 $0.709 -$0.61 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.02 $0.01 1.73 16.53 63.1 63.08 0.0649 0.7152 0.0085 -1.2970 0.0760 $0.796 -$0.61 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.03 $0.01 1.72 18.19 63.1 63.08 0.0714 0.7870 0.0092 -1.4028 0.0836 $0.886 -$0.61 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.05 $0.01 1.71 19.80 63.1 63.08 0.0777 0.8566 0.0099 -1.5047 0.0909 $0.974 -$0.61 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.06 $0.01 1.70 21.34 63.1 63.08 0.0837 0.9233 0.0105 -1.6024 0.0980 $1.055 -$0.60 -$0.07 $0.000 $0.07 $0.01 1.68 22.79 63.1 63.08 0.0894 0.9862 0.0111 -1.6949 0.1046 $1.135 -$0.59 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.07 $0.01 1.66 24.14 63.1 63.08 0.0947 1.0446 0.0117 -1.7816 0.1108 $1.212 -$0.58 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.08 $0.01 1.635 25.37 63.1 63.08 0.0995 1.0977 0.0122 -1.8614 0.1165 $1.283 -$0.58**Net Present Value Trial Standard Level 4** 

**Energy Savings**  **Shipments & Stock Net Present Value** 

-$0.06 $0.000 $0.08 $0.01 1.635 25.37 63.1 63.08 0.0995 1.0977 0.0122 -1.8614 0.1165 $1.283 -$0.58 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.09 $0.01 1.62 26.46 63.1 63.08 0.1038 1.1449 0.0127 -1.9334 0.1215 $1.348 -$0.57 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.10 $0.01 1.61 27.40 63.1 63.08 0.1075 1.1857 0.0131 -1.9962 0.1258 $1.407 -$0.57 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.11 $0.01 1.62 28.21 63.1 63.08 0.1106 1.2207 0.0135 -2.0509 0.1295 $1.460 -$0.57 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.11 $0.01 1.63 28.90 63.1 63.08 0.1133 1.2507 0.0138 -2.0981 0.1327 $1.507 -$0.57 -$0.06 $0.000 $0.11 $0.01 1.66 29.50 63.1 63.08 0.1157 1.2763 0.0140 -2.1386 0.1354 $1.550 -$0.58

$0.000 $0.18 $0.02 30.00 63.08 0.1176 1.2982 0.0143 -2.1732 0.1377 $1.588 $0.00 $0.000 $0.18 $0.02 28.75 63.08 0.1127 1.2442 0.0136 -2.0752 0.1320 $1.534 $0.00 $0.000 $0.17 $0.02 27.41 63.08 0.1075 1.1862 0.0129 -1.9723 0.1258 $1.473 $0.00 $0.000 $0.16 $0.02 25.99 63.08 0.1019 1.1247 0.0122 -1.8655 0.1193 $1.408 $0.00 $0.000 $0.15 $0.01 24.51 63.08 0.0961 1.0603 0.0115 -1.7560 0.1125 $1.337 $0.00 $0.000 $0.15 $0.01 22.97 63.08 0.0900 0.9937 0.0108 -1.6448 0.1054 $1.263 $0.00 $0.000 $0.14 $0.01 21.39 63.08 0.0839 0.9255 0.0101 -1.5328 0.0982 $1.185 $0.000 $0.13 $0.01 19.78 63.08 0.0776 0.8560 0.0093 -1.4202 0.0908 $1.105 $0.000 $0.12 $0.01 18.15 63.08 0.0712 0.7854 0.0086 -1.3068 0.0833 $1.021 $0.000 $0.11 $0.01 16.51 63.08 0.0647 0.7142 0.0078 -1.1927 0.0758 $0.936 $0.000 $0.10 $0.01 14.85 63.08 0.0582 0.6425 0.0071 -1.0777 0.0682 $0.849 $0.000 $0.09 $0.00 13.20 63.08 0.0518 0.5713 0.0063 -0.9630 0.0606 $0.761 $0.000 $0.08 $0.00 11.59 63.08 0.0455 0.5015 0.0056 -0.8498 0.0532 $0.673 $0.000 $0.07 $0.00 10.03 63.08 0.0393 0.4339 0.0049 -0.7393 0.0460 $0.587 $0.000 $0.06 $0.00 8.54 63.08 0.0335 0.3694 0.0042 -0.6328 0.0392 $0.503

### $0.000 $0.05 $0.00 7.13 63.08 0.0280 0.3086 0.0035 -0.5314 0.0327 $0.424 $0.000 $0.04 $0.00 5.83 63.08 0.0229 0.2522 0.0029 -0.4365 0.0268 $0.349 $0.000 $0.03 $0.00 4.65 63.08 0.0182 0.2010 0.0023 -0.3495 0.0213 $0.280 $0.000 $0.03 $0.00 3.60 63.08 0.0141 0.1556 0.0018 -0.2716 0.0165 $0.219 $0.000 $0.02 $0.00 2.69 63.08 0.0106 0.1166 0.0013 -0.2043 0.0124 $0.165 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 1.96 63.08 0.0077 0.0848 0.0010 -0.1491 0.0090 $0.121 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 1.37 63.08 0.0054 0.0594 0.0007 -0.1047 0.0063 $0.085 $0.000 $0.01 $0.00 0.92 63.08 0.0036 0.0396 0.0005 -0.0700 0.0042 $0.057 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.57 63.08 0.0022 0.0248 0.0003 -0.0439 0.0026 $0.036 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.33 63.08 0.0013 0.0142 0.0002 -0.0251 0.0015 $0.021 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.16 63.08 0.0006 0.0071 0.0001 -0.0126 0.0008 $0.011 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.07 63.08 0.0003 0.0029 0.0000 -0.0050 0.0003 $0.004 $0.000 $0.00 $0.00 0.02 63.08 0.0001 0.0007 0.0000 -0.0013 0.0001 $0.001

### Maintenance Cost Net SavingsNet Present Value Shipment

s Affected

StockAvg UEC

of Shipment

s Avg UEC of Stock Gas

Efficiency Site SavingsElec, Eff.

Site SavingsMarket

Shift from Gas Market

Shift to Elec Total

Primary SavingsOperating

Cost SavingsEquipmen

t CostMaintenan

ce Cost Net

Savings Net

Present Value

Billions $2001Billions $2001 Billions $2001 MillionsMillionsMMBtuMMBtu Quads TWh Quads TWh QuadsBillions $2004 Billions

$2004 Billions

$2004 Billions

$2004 Billions

$2004 $0.000 -$0.38 -$0.22 1.05 0.00 59.8 59.84 0.0000 0.0000.000000.000 0.0000$0.000 -$1.42 $0.000 -$1.42 -$0.83 $0.00 -$0.34 -$0.18 1.06 1.05 59.8 59.84 0.00800.07190.0026-0.39640.0093$0.089 -$1.44 -$0.01 -$1.36 -$0.74 $0.00 -$0.29 -$0.15 1.09 2.12 59.8 59.84 0.0161 0.14440.0052-0.78640.0187$0.184 -$1.47 -$0.02 -$1.30 -$0.66 $0.00 -$0.26 -$0.12 1.14 3.20 59.8 59.84 0.02430.21850.0078-1.19250.0283$0.274 -$1.54 -$0.03 -$1.30 -$0.62 $0.00 -$0.23 -$0.10 1.20 4.34 59.8 59.84 0.03290.29600.0105-1.60410.0383$0.369 -$1.63 -$0.04 -$1.30 -$0.58 $0.00 -$0.20 -$0.08 1.27 5.53 59.8 59.84 0.04200.37780.0133-2.02750.0488$0.476 -$1.73 -$0.05 -$1.30 -$0.54 -$0.01 -$0.17 -$0.07 1.34 6.80 59.8 59.84 0.05160.46440.0162-2.46150.0599$0.584 -$1.83 -$0.09 -$1.34 -$0.52 -$0.01 -$0.14 -$0.05 1.42 8.15 59.8 59.84 0.06170.55620.0190-2.89790.0717$0.710 -$1.94 -$0.12 -$1.35 -$0.49 -$0.02 -$0.09 -$0.03 1.49 9.57 59.8 59.84 0.07240.65300.0219-3.33540.0840$0.847 -$2.04 -$0.15 -$1.35 -$0.46 -$0.03 -$0.05 -$0.02 1.56 11.06 59.8 59.84 0.08350.75460.0248-3.77230.0969$0.988 -$2.14 -$0.19 -$1.34 -$0.43 -$0.03 $0.00 $0.00 1.61 12.61 59.8 59.84 0.09520.86090.0276-4.20840.1104$1.129 -$2.23 -$0.22 -$1.32 -$0.39 -$0.04 $0.06 $0.02 1.65 14.22 59.8 59.84 0.1071 0.97040.0305-4.64030.1243$1.277 -$2.28 -$0.26 -$1.27 -$0.35 -$0.05 $0.14 $0.03 1.67 15.84 59.8 59.84 0.1192 1.08100.0332-5.06450.1383$1.435 -$2.30 -$0.30 -$1.17 -$0.30 -$0.06 $0.22 $0.05 1.66 17.44 59.8 59.84 0.1312 1.19040.0359-5.47760.1521 $1.602 -$2.29 -$0.34 -$1.04 -$0.25 -$0.07 $0.30 $0.07 1.65 18.99 59.8 59.84 0.1427 1.29650.0386-5.87560.1655$1.762 -$2.28 -$0.39 -$0.90 -$0.20 -$0.08 $0.38 $0.08 1.63 20.48 59.8 59.84 0.1538 1.3981 0.0411-6.25680.1784$1.910 -$2.25 -$0.43 -$0.77 -$0.16 -$0.08 $0.46 $0.09 1.62 21.89 59.8 59.84 0.1643 1.49390.0434-6.61820.1905$2.057 -$2.22 -$0.47 -$0.64 -$0.13 -$0.09 $0.53 $0.10 1.59 23.19 59.8 59.84 0.1740 1.58290.0457-6.95670.2018$2.197 -$2.19 -$0.51 -$0.51 -$0.09 -$0.10 $0.60 $0.10 1.57 24.38 59.8 59.84 0.1828 1.66380.0477-7.26840.2120$2.329 -$2.16 -$0.55 -$0.38 -$0.07 **Net Present Value Trial Standard Level 5** 

**Shipments & Stock Energy**  **Savings Net Present Value** 

-$0.10 $0.60 $0.10 1.57 24.38 59.8 59.84 0.1828 1.66380.0477-7.26840.2120$2.329 -$2.16 -$0.55 -$0.38 -$0.07 -$0.11 $0.67 $0.11 1.55 25.43 59.8 59.84 0.1907 1.73560.0495-7.54920.2211 $2.449 -$2.13 -$0.59 -$0.27 -$0.04 -$0.12 $0.72 $0.11 1.55 26.34 59.8 59.84 0.1974 1.79770.0512-7.79480.2290$2.558 -$2.12 -$0.63 -$0.19 -$0.03 -$0.13 $0.76 $0.11 1.55 27.12 59.8 59.84 0.2033 1.85090.0526-8.00830.2357$2.656 -$2.12 -$0.66 -$0.12 -$0.02 -$0.14 $0.80 $0.10 1.56 27.78 59.8 59.84 0.2083 1.89650.0538-8.19270.2415$2.744 -$2.14 -$0.69 -$0.09 -$0.01 -$0.15 $0.82 $0.10 1.59 28.35 59.8 59.84 0.2125 1.93540.0548-8.35080.2465$2.824 -$2.17 -$0.72 -$0.07 -$0.01 -$0.15 $1.44 $0.16 28.84 59.84 0.2162 1.96870.0557-8.48560.2507$2.897 $0.00 -$0.74 $2.15 $0.25 -$0.16 $1.38 $0.15 27.65 59.84 0.2072 1.88700.0532-8.10300.2402$2.800 $0.00 -$0.75 $2.05 $0.22 -$0.16 $1.31 $0.13 26.36 59.84 0.1975 1.79930.0505-7.70110.2290$2.692 $0.00 -$0.75 $1.94 $0.19 -$0.17 $1.24 $0.12 25.00 59.84 0.1873 1.70620.0478-7.28440.2172$2.574 $0.00 -$0.75 $1.83 $0.17 -$0.17 $1.17 $0.10 23.57 59.84 0.1765 1.60870.0450-6.85670.2047$2.447 $0.00 -$0.74 $1.70 $0.15 -$0.17 $1.09 $0.09 22.09 59.84 0.1654 1.50760.0421-6.42240.1919$2.312 $0.00 -$0.74 $1.57 $0.13 -$0.16 $1.02 $0.08 20.57 59.84 0.1541 1.4041 0.0393-5.98530.1787$2.172 -$0.70 $1.47 $0.11 -$0.16 $0.95 $0.07 19.02 59.84 0.1425 1.29850.0364-5.54540.1653$2.026 -$0.66 $1.36 $0.10 -$0.15 $0.87 $0.06 17.45 59.84 0.1308 1.19140.0335-5.10270.1517$1.875 -$0.62 $1.25 $0.08 -$0.14 $0.80 $0.05 15.87 59.84 0.1189 1.08320.0306-4.65700.1379$1.719 -$0.58 $1.14 $0.07 -$0.13 $0.72 $0.04 14.27 59.84 0.10700.97430.0276-4.20790.1241 $1.560 -$0.54 $1.02 $0.06 -$0.12 $0.64 $0.03 12.69 59.84 0.0951 0.86620.0247-3.76020.1103$1.399 -$0.50 $0.90 $0.05 -$0.11 $0.56 $0.03 11.14 59.84 0.08350.76020.0218-3.31820.0969$1.239 -$0.45 $0.78 $0.04 -$0.10 $0.48 $0.02 9.63 59.84 0.07230.65760.0189-2.88680.0838$1.081 -$0.41 $0.67 $0.03 -$0.09 $0.41 $0.02 8.20 59.84 0.06150.55960.0162-2.47070.0714$0.928 -$0.37 $0.56 $0.02

### -$0.08 $0.34 $0.01 6.85 59.84 0.05140.46740.0136-2.07490.0596$0.782 -$0.33 $0.46 $0.02

-$0.08 $0.27 $0.01 5.60 59.84 0.04200.38190.0112-1.70440.0487$0.645 -$0.28 $0.36 $0.01 -$0.07 $0.21 $0.01 4.46 59.84 0.03350.30430.0090-1.36450.0388$0.518 -$0.25 $0.27 $0.01 -$0.06 $0.16 $0.01 3.45 59.84 0.02590.23550.0070-1.06060.0301 $0.405 -$0.21 $0.20 $0.01 -$0.05 $0.12 $0.00 2.59 59.84 0.01940.17650.0052-0.79790.0225$0.306 -$0.17 $0.13 $0.00 -$0.04 $0.08 $0.00 1.88 59.84 0.0141 0.12830.0038-0.58210.0164$0.224 -$0.14 $0.08 $0.00 -$0.03 $0.05 $0.00 1.32 59.84 0.00990.08980.0027-0.40870.0115$0.158 -$0.11 $0.04 $0.00 -$0.03 $0.03 $0.00 0.88 59.84 0.00660.05990.0018-0.27330.0077$0.107 -$0.09 $0.02 $0.00 -$0.02 $0.02 $0.00 0.55 59.84 0.0041 0.03750.0011-0.17130.0048$0.067 -$0.07 $0.00 $0.00 -$0.02 $0.01 $0.00 0.31 59.84 0.00240.02150.0006-0.09810.0027$0.039 -$0.05 -$0.01 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 0.16 59.84 0.00120.01080.0003-0.04920.0014$0.020 -$0.04 -$0.02 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 0.06 59.84 0.00050.00430.0001-0.01970.0006$0.008 -$0.02 -$0.02 $0.00 -$0.01 $0.00 $0.00 0.02 59.84 0.0001 0.0011 0.0000-0.00490.0001 $0.002 -$0.02 -$0.01 $0.00Conversion Rates based on AGA data % Weatherized of **Source:**Historical Shipments: Furnaces and Boilers: GAMA Statistical Highlights 1969-1997 + Recent Data provided by GAMA Historical Housing Census Data: ftp://ftp.census.gov/pub/const/C22/compann.xls gas furnace shipments **Source:**Historical Shipments: Heat Pumps - American Refrigeration Institute Oil to Gas Elec to Gas Housing Forecast AEO2005 to NewHousing 35.1% 31.8% 9.939% Total EfficiencyCentral Gas Heating **New Housing (million)** Upgrages Retrofit Oil Gas Oil Oil Gas Oil Modeled **Oil El** **ectric Oil**  **Total Total**  **NWGF NWGF**  Oil Gas Oil Mobile Oil Gas Oil Central Oil Electric Gas Oil Heat Total NW NW-ColdNW-WarmWeath. MH FurnaceSF+MF MH Boiler Boiler SF+MF MH Total NW NW-ColdNW-Warm W MH Furnace SF+MF MH Boilers Boilers SF+MF MH Replacements **Furnace Furnace**  **Boiler Furnace**  Total NW W MH Furnace Boilers Boilers United States Cold Warm Homes Total Total NW NW-Cold NW-Warm Weath MH Furnace SF + MF MH Boilers Boilers SF + MF MH Heating Total NW NW-Cold NW-Warm W MH Furnace Furnace Boilers Boiler Pump Furnace Boiler 1951 0.428 0.385 0.182 0.203 0.043 0.000 0.135 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 1952 0.383 0.345 0.163 0.182 0.038 0.000 0.270 0.000 0.0000.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 1953 0.416 0.375 0.177 0.198 0.04140.0000 0.356 0.000 0.0000.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 1954 0.520 0.214 0.101 0.113 0.3061 0.0000 0.362 0.000 0.0000.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 1955 0.735 0.663 0.313 0.350 0.07190.0000 0.410 0.000 0.0000.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 1956 0.811 0.741 0.350 0.391 0.07030.0000 0.384 0.000 0.0000.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 1957 0.724 0.673 0.318 0.355 0.0511 0.0000 0.321 0.000 0.0080.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 1958 0.774 0.727 0.343 0.384 0.04690.0000 0.300 0.000 0.0210.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1959 0.960 0.861 0.406 0.454 0.04950.0500 0.301 0.021 0.033 0.007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.121 0.050 0.021 0.007 0.000 0.000 1960 0.932 0.838 0.396 0.442 0.04980.0440 0.264 0.019 0.0390.006 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.104 0.044 0.019 0.006 0.000 0.000 1961 0.886 0.805 0.380 0.425 0.0421 0.0389 0.218 0.016 0.0420.005 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.090 0.039 0.016 0.005 0.000 0.000 1962 0.935 0.839 0.396 0.443 0.04380.0521 0.207 0.022 0.0500.007 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.002 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1% 1% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0.118 0.052 0.022 0.007 0.004 0.000 1963 1.030 0.913 0.431 0.482 0.04900.0682 0.225 0.029 0.0620.009 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.008 0.000 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 2% 2% 0% 0% 6% 0% 0% 0.151 0.068 0.029 0.009 0.014 0.000 1964 1.122 0.986 0.466 0.520 0.04790.0881 0.293 0.037 0.0630.011 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.018 0.000 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 4% 4% 2% 0% 12% 0% 0% 0.191 0.088 0.037 0.011 0.034 0.000 1965 1.189 1.026 0.485 0.542 0.06050.1021 0.314 0.043 0.0590.012 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.17 0.034 0.000 0.00 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 7% 7% 6% 0% 20% 0% 0% 0.217 0.102 0.043 0.012 0.063 0.000 1966 1.185 1.018 0.480 0.537 0.06580.1017 0.296 0.042 0.0670.013 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.00 0.16 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.28 0.056 0.000 0.00 0.06 0.06 0.00 0.00 11% 11% 10% 0% 35% 0% 0% 0.217 0.102 0.042 0.013 0.103 0.000 1967 1.134 0.954 0.450 0.504 0.06800.1121 0.286 0.046 0.0650.016 0.10 0.08 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.22 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.41 0.079 0.000 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.00 17% 17% 28% 0% 51% 0% 0% 0.240 0.112 0.046 0.015 0.145 0.000 1968 1.420 1.201 0.567 0.634 0.07080.1479 0.301 0.061 0.0720.022 0.15 0.12 0.05 0.06 0.03 0.00 0.28 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.55 0.099 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 18% 18% 46% 0% 61% 0% 0% 1.320 0.300 1.017 0.318 1.638 0.740 0.533 0.252 0.281 0.059 0.148 0.040 0.186 0.061 0.075 0.054 0.115 0.021 1.271 0.988 0.748 0.406 0.343 0.091 0.148 0.222 0.186 0.075 0.054 0.121 0.183 0.000 1969 1.546 1.265 0.597 0.668 0.08970.1912 0.305 0.078 0.176 0.0790.030 0.21 0.16 0.07 0.08 0.05 0.00 0.32 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.69 0.113 0.000 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 21% 21% 54% 0% 68% 0% 0% 1.399 0.318 1.078 0.413 1.812 0.806 0.554 0.262 0.292 0.061 0.191 0.041 0.212 0.078 0.076 0.054 0.128 0.029 1.395 1.125 0.825 0.449 0.376 0.110 0.191 0.250 0.212 0.076 0.054 0.137 0.209 0.000 1970 1.471 1.173 0.554 0.619 0.11290.1851 0.304 0.076 0.164 0.0800.031 0.27 0.21 0.10 0.11 0.06 0.00 0.35 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.84 0.121 0.000 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 28% 28% 56% 0% 74% 0% 0% 1.418 0.322 1.093 0.401 1.820 0.796 0.550 0.260 0.290 0.061 0.185 0.040 0.229 0.076 0.073 0.051 0.136 0.030 1.401 1.188 0.879 0.479 0.400 0.124 0.185 0.264 0.229 0.073 0.051 0.149 0.224 0.000 1971 1.795 1.382 0.652 0.729 0.18490.2283 0.333 0.201 0.093 0.157 0.0670.041 0.34 0.27 0.13 0.14 0.08 0.00 0.35 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.97 0.122 0.000 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 28% 28% 42% 0% 68% 0% 0% 1.706 0.387 1.314 0.497 2.203 0.948 0.648 0.306 0.342 0.072 0.228 0.046 0.293 0.093 0.084 0.056 0.172 0.039 1.692 1.413 1.036 0.553 0.482 0.149 0.228 0.271 0.293 0.084 0.056 0.190 0.225 0.000 1972 2.066 1.545 0.730 0.816 0.2571 0.2636 0.311 0.301 0.109 0.156 0.134 0.0790.050 0.41 0.32 0.15 0.17 0.09 0.00 0.33 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 1.10 0.117 0.000 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 29% 29% 35% 0% 69% 0% 0% 2.004 0.455 1.544 0.576 2.580 1.091 0.745 0.352 0.393 0.082 0.264 0.052 0.364 0.107 0.094 0.061 0.210 0.047 1.979 1.622 1.186 0.621 0.564 0.173 0.264 0.267 0.364 0.094 0.061 0.235 0.215 0.000 1973 1.719 1.146 0.541 0.605 0.3182 0.2550 0.328 0.392 0.113 0.147 0.130 0.0980.051 0.47 0.38 0.18 0.20 0.09 0.00 0.31 0.000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 1.20 0.109 0.000 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 43% 43% 28% 0% 61% 0% 0% 2.101 0.477 1.618 0.567 2.667 1.078 0.741 0.350 0.391 0.082 0.255 0.058 0.403 0.110 0.089 0.071 0.257 0.046 2.065 1.659 1.234 0.640 0.594 0.170 0.255 0.259 0.403 0.089 0.071 0.288 0.201 0.000 1974 1.476 1.039 0.491 0.548 0.28940.1477 0.209 0.411 0.072 0.123 0.091 0.1130.032 0.53 0.45 0.21 0.24 0.08 0.00 0.29 0.000 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 1.31 0.101 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 53% 53% 29% 2% 89% 0% 0% 1.729 0.392 1.332 0.329 2.058 0.702 0.501 0.237 0.265 0.055 0.145 0.036 0.381 0.066 0.052 0.054 0.303 0.027 1.595 1.334 1.048 0.548 0.500 0.138 0.148 0.223 0.381 0.052 0.054 0.340 0.187 0.000 1975 1.186 0.929 0.427 0.502 0.15850.0987 0.213 0.194 0.053 0.088 0.099 0.1360.024 0.59 0.51 0.24 0.27 0.07 0.01 0.27 0.000 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 1.43 0.094 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 65% 65% 47% 6% 82% 0% 0% 1.317 0.318 0.999 0.213 1.530 0.508 0.374 0.172 0.202 0.041 0.092 0.032 0.275 0.044 0.037 0.050 0.236 0.017 1.182 1.196 0.981 0.508 0.473 0.116 0.099 0.206 0.275 0.037 0.050 0.279 0.174 0.000 1976 1.554 1.206 0.550 0.656 0.2312 0.1171 0.236 0.247 0.066 0.113 0.132 0.2640.029 0.66 0.58 0.27 0.30 0.07 0.01 0.25 0.000 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.01 1.55 0.090 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 55% 55% 29% 11% 70% 0% 0% 1.377 0.349 1.026 0.246 1.623 0.549 0.400 0.182 0.217 0.044 0.105 0.053 0.290 0.053 0.038 0.078 0.244 0.020 1.305 1.295 1.067 0.545 0.522 0.111 0.117 0.219 0.290 0.038 0.078 0.293 0.165 0.000 1977 1.508 1.158 0.541 0.617 0.21800.1322 0.228 0.311 0.076 0.113 0.134 0.4020.032 0.72 0.64 0.30 0.34 0.06 0.02 0.25 0.000 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.05 0.01 1.68 0.089 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 63% 63% 27% 16% 72% 0% 0% 1.657 0.413 1.242 0.267 1.924 0.621 0.459 0.214 0.245 0.051 0.112 0.057 0.385 0.060 0.042 0.079 0.317 0.022 1.560 1.426 1.185 0.604 0.581 0.109 0.132 0.221 0.385 0.042 0.079 0.371 0.164 0.000 1978 1.636 1.237 0.587 0.650 0.25290.1460 0.263 0.349 0.081 0.126 0.108 0.4860.042 0.77 0.69 0.33 0.37 0.05 0.03 0.26 0.000 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.01 1.80 0.090 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 63% 63% 20% 22% 63% 0% 0% 1.868 0.452 1.415 0.276 2.143 0.674 0.504 0.239 0.265 0.056 0.114 0.057 0.466 0.061 0.044 0.074 0.377 0.029 1.752 1.538 1.287 0.657 0.630 0.105 0.146 0.224 0.466 0.044 0.074 0.435 0.167 0.000 1979 1.863 1.459 0.710 0.749 0.2482 0.1558 0.158 0.283 0.085 0.221 0.085 0.4820.051 0.84 0.75 0.35 0.39 0.05 0.04 0.27 0.000 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.06 0.02 1.94 0.094 0.000 0.00 0.09 0.09 0.00 0.00 58% 58% 20% 27% 110% 0% 0% 1.871 0.448 1.421 0.277 2.148 0.697 0.525 0.256 0.269 0.058 0.114 0.050 0.481 0.060 0.044 0.061 0.382 0.036 1.775 1.628 1.365 0.702 0.663 0.107 0.156 0.224 0.481 0.044 0.061 0.444 0.174 0.000 1980 1.446 1.170 0.526 0.644 0.13400.1424 0.064 0.227 0.077 0.293 0.052 0.3540.052 0.90 0.79 0.38 0.42 0.05 0.05 0.28 0.000 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.02 2.07 0.098 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 37% 37% 285% 0% 0% 1.502 0.325 1.175 0.222 1.723 0.587 0.448 0.201 0.246 0.049 0.090 0.019 0.400 0.047 0.035 0.022 0.312 0.034 1.423 1.582 1.341 0.675 0.666 0.099 0.142 0.201 0.400 0.035 0.022 0.378 0.182 0.000 1981 1.417 1.135 0.492 0.643 0.12150.1603 0.081 0.235 0.086 0.162 0.067 0.4140.064 0.95 0.84 0.40 0.44 0.05 0.06 0.29 0.000 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.02 2.19 0.102 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 83% 83% 43% 39% 231% 0% 0% 1.266 0.257 1.002 0.241 1.507 0.525 0.386 0.167 0.219 0.043 0.097 0.010 0.318 0.050 0.030 0.012 0.270 0.043 1.217 1.580 1.326 0.665 0.661 0.094 0.160 0.198 0.318 0.030 0.012 0.340 0.188 0.000 1982 1.156 0.875 0.356 0.519 0.11150.1693 0.104 0.177 0.090 0.148 0.073 0.3160.072 1.01 0.88 0.42 0.47 0.06 0.07 0.30 0.000 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.07 0.02 2.31 0.104 0.000 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 113% 113% 49% 44% 186% 0% 0% 1.006 0.190 0.816 0.239 1.244 0.412 0.285 0.116 0.169 0.031 0.095 0.011 0.248 0.049 0.022 0.014 0.229 0.048 0.985 1.529 1.273 0.638 0.635 0.087 0.169 0.204 0.248 0.022 0.014 0.303 0.193 0.000 1983 1.662 1.262 0.528 0.735 0.1921 0.2072 0.127 0.339 0.111 0.148 0.083 0.6270.081 1.08 0.93 0.44 0.49 0.06 0.09 0.30 0.006 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.03 2.45 0.106 0.002 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 82% 82% 31% 42% 154% 0% 0% 1.390 0.260 1.126 0.295 1.685 0.596 0.428 0.179 0.249 0.047 0.120 0.010 0.322 0.064 0.032 0.014 0.324 0.054 1.362 1.782 1.468 0.725 0.742 0.108 0.207 0.207 0.326 0.032 0.014 0.404 0.196 0.000 1984 1.849 1.435 0.620 0.815 0.18950.2248 0.148 0.354 0.122 0.180 0.091 0.7450.077 1.15 0.97 0.46 0.51 0.07 0.10 0.31 0.020 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.09 0.03 2.59 0.108 0.006 0.00 0.11 0.11 0.00 0.00 76% 76% 36% 46% 134% 0% 0% 1.652 0.317 1.332 0.295 1.947 0.681 0.503 0.217 0.286 0.056 0.122 0.012 0.374 0.067 0.037 0.016 0.410 0.048 1.597 1.942 1.593 0.786 0.807 0.124 0.225 0.210 0.387 0.037 0.016 0.502 0.199 0.000 1985 1.822 1.381 0.685 0.696 0.20330.2377 0.147 0.366 0.132 0.192 0.104 0.8210.071 1.21 1.01 0.48 0.53 0.08 0.12 0.31 0.044 0.06 0.00 0.00 0.11 0.03 2.75 0.107 0.014 0.00 0.12 0.12 0.00 0.00 82% 82% 40% 50% 135% 0% 0% 1.703 0.360 1.337 0.283 1.987 0.713 0.534 0.265 0.269 0.059 0.120 0.015 0.359 0.068 0.039 0.022 0.429 0.041 1.645 2.048 1.670 0.852 0.818 0.141 0.238 0.213 0.389 0.039 0.022 0.539 0.198 0.000 1986 2.105 1.661 0.843 0.818 0.20280.2416 0.201 0.383 0.133 0.196 0.126 0.8840.062 1.28 1.04 0.49 0.55 0.10 0.14 0.30 0.081 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.03 2.92 0.106 0.026 0.00 0.13 0.13 0.00 0.00 71% 71% 50% 56% 98% 0% 0% 1.756 0.401 1.350 0.245 2.001 0.780 0.608 0.308 0.299 0.067 0.105 0.022 0.335 0.062 0.039 0.036 0.413 0.031 1.686 2.197 1.787 0.911 0.876 0.168 0.242 0.218 0.390 0.039 0.036 0.548 0.196 0.000 1987 2.073 1.575 0.816 0.759 0.23750.2609 0.206 0.375 0.138 0.190 0.135 0.9180.056 1.36 1.08 0.51 0.57 0.13 0.16 0.29 0.122 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.16 0.03 3.09 0.103 0.039 0.00 0.14 0.14 0.00 0.00 77% 78% 53% 61% 92% 0% 0% 1.669 0.409 1.259 0.233 1.901 0.833 0.659 0.341 0.318 0.073 0.102 0.022 0.278 0.061 0.037 0.040 0.354 0.025 1.624 2.342 1.883 0.958 0.925 0.199 0.261 0.211 0.361 0.037 0.040 0.519 0.190 0.000 1988 2.092 1.572 0.794 0.778 0.24730.2724 0.204 0.293 0.142 0.192 0.170 0.8350.066 1.44 1.11 0.52 0.58 0.15 0.18 0.28 0.171 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.03 3.28 0.098 0.054 0.00 0.15 0.15 0.01 0.00 80% 81% 61% 67% 89% 0% 0% 1.530 0.377 1.150 0.218 1.748 0.806 0.646 0.326 0.320 0.071 0.089 0.021 0.234 0.062 0.031 0.042 0.308 0.035 1.503 2.410 1.915 0.956 0.959 0.223 0.272 0.202 0.351 0.031 0.042 0.506 0.181 0.000 1989 2.162 1.620 0.819 0.801 0.26650.2755 0.179 0.298 0.141 0.182 0.151 0.8350.072 1.51 1.13 0.53 0.60 0.18 0.20 0.26 0.217 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.24 0.03 3.44 0.092 0.069 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.01 0.01 80% 81% 67% 73% 95% 0% 0% 1.423 0.354 1.069 0.198 1.621 0.779 0.634 0.320 0.314 0.070 0.075 0.016 0.206 0.059 0.025 0.037 0.278 0.042 1.401 2.469 1.945 0.963 0.982 0.248 0.276 0.186 0.353 0.025 0.037 0.513 0.170 0.000 1990 1.950 1.452 0.705 0.747 0.2231 0.2746 0.138 0.280 0.139 0.196 0.130 0.8090.080 1.57 1.16 0.55 0.61 0.20 0.21 0.25 0.256 0.08 0.01 0.00 0.28 0.03 3.59 0.086 0.081 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.02 0.01 91% 93% 91% 76% 115% 4% 0% 1.308 0.322 0.984 0.188 1.496 0.738 0.606 0.294 0.312 0.067 0.066 0.014 0.180 0.060 0.019 0.036 0.251 0.049 1.297 2.501 1.957 0.952 1.005 0.270 0.275 0.174 0.354 0.026 0.036 0.529 0.160 0.000 1991 2.057 1.539 0.691 0.848 0.22970.2883 0.131 0.245 0.132 0.177 0.118 0.7640.055 1.61 1.18 0.55 0.62 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.281 0.07 0.02 0.00 0.33 0.03 3.71 0.080 0.089 0.00 0.17 0.17 0.03 0.01 88% 90% 97% 71% 113% 12% 0% 1.091 0.262 0.824 0.171 1.262 0.611 0.476 0.214 0.262 0.053 0.083 0.013 0.135 0.058 0.042 0.027 0.192 0.023 1.079 2.425 1.862 0.887 0.975 0.274 0.288 0.161 0.327 0.062 0.027 0.518 0.148 0.000 1992 2.107 1.645 0.719 0.926 0.22260.2397 0.141 0.290 0.127 0.176 0.144 0.7990.117 1.61 1.19 0.56 0.63 0.23 0.19 0.21 0.289 0.07 0.04 0.00 0.38 0.03 3.78 0.073 0.092 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.04 0.02 82% 86% 104% 79% 96% 23% 0% 1.158 0.280 0.873 0.211 1.368 0.718 0.601 0.262 0.338 0.066 0.051 0.014 0.121 0.058 0.034 0.023 0.209 0.084 1.177 2.551 2.013 0.952 1.061 0.298 0.240 0.149 0.318 0.075 0.023 0.584 0.135 0.000 1993 2.585 2.081 0.882 1.199 0.24350.2601 0.149 0.348 0.180 0.196 0.150 0.8820.056 1.58 1.19 0.56 0.63 0.23 0.16 0.19 0.293 0.06 0.07 0.01 0.42 0.03 3.81 0.065 0.093 0.00 0.16 0.16 0.05 0.03 65% 69% 95% 62% 81% 34% 2% 1.193 0.275 0.915 0.254 1.447 0.772 0.607 0.257 0.350 0.067 0.098 0.013 0.167 0.116 0.050 0.021 0.169 0.021 1.308 2.595 2.036 0.961 1.075 0.299 0.260 0.133 0.367 0.118 0.024 0.592 0.121 0.003 1994 2.697 2.139 0.921 1.218 0.29700.2613 0.164 0.401 0.162 0.216 0.169 1.0080.076 1.55 1.19 0.55 0.63 0.23 0.14 0.16 0.289 0.06 0.10 0.02 0.47 0.04 3.83 0.057 0.092 0.01 0.15 0.15 0.07 0.04 62% 68% 77% 52% 64% 46% 6% 1.347 0.308 1.032 0.304 1.651 0.909 0.706 0.304 0.402 0.078 0.125 0.016 0.131 0.102 0.042 0.020 0.244 0.039 1.463 2.720 2.152 1.026 1.127 0.306 0.261 0.121 0.328 0.146 0.030 0.713 0.105 0.010 1995 2.601 1.999 0.864 1.135 0.31040.2914 0.135 0.402 0.165 0.188 0.149 1.0250.064 1.52 1.19 0.55 0.64 0.22 0.12 0.14 0.282 0.06 0.12 0.03 0.52 0.04 3.86 0.049 0.090 0.01 0.14 0.15 0.10 0.05 66% 74% 70% 41% 67% 65% 13% 1.313 0.295 1.012 0.340 1.653 0.932 0.683 0.295 0.388 0.075 0.173 0.015 0.151 0.108 0.045 0.023 0.226 0.026 1.500 2.743 2.158 1.044 1.114 0.294 0.291 0.105 0.343 0.177 0.042 0.745 0.090 0.020 1996 2.871 2.284 0.978 1.306 0.34550.2415 0.152 0.471 0.158 0.198 0.160 1.1480.110 1.51 1.19 0.55 0.64 0.21 0.11 0.13 0.274 0.06 0.13 0.05 0.57 0.04 3.91 0.044 0.087 0.02 0.13 0.15 0.13 0.06 58% 66% 60% 45% 53% 68% 20% 1.413 0.360 1.046 0.338 1.751 0.972 0.756 0.324 0.432 0.083 0.133 0.015 0.165 0.103 0.036 0.020 0.233 0.071 1.544 2.806 2.274 1.113 1.161 0.291 0.241 0.096 0.352 0.188 0.052 0.804 0.081 0.031 1997 2.779 2.241 0.950 1.291 0.3231 0.2150 0.124 0.403 0.217 0.206 0.158 1.1300.084 1.50 1.20 0.55 0.65 0.19 0.11 0.12 0.271 0.06 0.14 0.07 0.63 0.04 3.99 0.043 0.086 0.03 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.08 59% 70% 60% 49% 64% 68% 30% 1.400 0.355 1.035 0.336 1.736 0.948 0.755 0.320 0.435 0.083 0.109 0.022 0.183 0.162 0.036 0.016 0.234 0.043 1.601 2.824 2.331 1.163 1.169 0.278 0.215 0.102 0.368 0.201 0.062 0.861 0.079 0.047 1998 2.977 2.439 1.053 1.386 0.333 0.204 0.128 0.414 0.192 0.194 0.156 1.2600.133 1.50 1.21 0.56 0.65 0.18 0.11 0.13 0.278 0.06 0.14 0.09 0.68 0.04 4.07 0.045 0.088 0.03 0.13 0.17 0.20 0.10 55% 68% 55% 52% 65% 71% 38% 1.474 0.380 1.085 0.374 1.848 0.977 0.790 0.341 0.449 0.087 0.099 0.016 0.196 0.136 0.031 0.020 0.229 0.092 1.604 2.910 2.437 1.246 1.191 0.269 0.204 0.099 0.386 0.200 0.079 0.907 0.084 0.058 1999 3.126 2.544 1.119 1.425 0.344 0.239 0.125 0.425 0.182 0.211 0.158 1.2930.100 1.50 1.22 0.56 0.66 0.18 0.10 0.14 0.288 0.06 0.13 0.10 0.72 0.04 4.16 0.050 0.091 0.04 0.14 0.18 0.24 0.12 54% 68% 51% 44% 75% 60% 42% 1.604 0.414 1.192 0.338 1.942 1.055 0.829 0.365 0.464 0.091 0.135 0.008 0.209 0.125 0.066 0.031 0.268 0.059 1.762 3.061 2.555 1.338 1.217 0.267 0.239 0.101 0.405 0.229 0.097 0.992 0.093 0.066 2000 3.137 2.583 1.136 1.447 0.354 0.200 0.121 0.436 0.144 0.232 0.155 1.3600.108 1.51 1.23 0.56 0.67 0.17 0.10 0.160 0.302 0.059 0.124 0.110 0.76 0.04 4.25 0.056 0.096 0.039 0.15 0.19 0.28 0.14 53% 70% 49% 52% 86% 53% 46% 1.574 0.402 1.170 0.281 1.855 1.006 0.820 0.361 0.459 0.091 0.095 0.008 0.201 0.085 0.065 0.030 0.258 0.068 1.653 3.089 2.625 1.401 1.224 0.264 0.200 0.112 0.408 0.228 0.101 1.023 0.104 0.071 2001 3.063 2.541 1.112 1.429 0.365 0.157 0.123 0.447 0.107 0.229 0.160 1.054 0.107 1.52 1.24 0.56 0.68 0.18 0.11 0.17 0.315 0.06 0.13 0.11 0.80 0.04 4.35 0.061 0.100 0.04 0.16 0.20 0.32 0.16 55% 74% 49% 68% 91% 58% 45% 1.571 0.396 1.174 0.196 1.767 0.965 0.824 0.361 0.463 0.091 0.050 0.007 0.198 0.047 0.065 0.027 0.255 0.067 1.565 3.130 2.703 1.463 1.240 0.270 0.157 0.120 0.413 0.236 0.100 1.054 0.112 0.073 2002 3.201 2.661 1.229 1.432 0.377 0.163 0.117 0.458 0.118 0.225 0.157 1.102 0.073 1.54 1.25 0.56 0.69 0.19 0.11 0.18 0.326 0.06 0.14 0.11 0.83 0.04 4.43 0.063 0.103 0.04 0.17 0.20 0.35 0.18 53% 73% 50% 67% 99% 64% 44% 1.648 0.417 1.462 0.174 1.822 0.996 0.849 0.392 0.457 0.094 0.053 0.008 0.215 0.056 0.067 0.031 0.276 0.033 1.650 3.238 2.794 1.546 1.248 0.281 0.163 0.124 0.438 0.248 0.100 1.102 0.116 0.069 2003 3.265 2.733 1.267 1.466 0.389 0.143 0.127 0.469 0.135 0.233 0.148 1.110 0.040 1.58 1.27 0.56 0.71 0.20 0.11 0.18 0.330 0.06 0.16 0.10 0.85 0.04 4.52 0.062 0.105 0.03 0.17 0.20 0.38 0.19 53% 73% 51% 78% 90% 68% 43% 1.678 0.438 1.546 0.138 1.816 1.032 0.901 0.418 0.483 0.099 0.031 0.007 0.204 0.074 0.071 0.025 0.262 0.000 1.674 3.347 2.907 1.614 1.294 0.297 0.143 0.121 0.430 0.264 0.089 1.110 0.115 0.064 2004 3.382 3.060 1.700 1.361 0.321 0.145 0.120 0.493 0.107 0.287 0.093 1.180 0.072 1.61 1.29 0.57 0.73 0.21 0.11 0.17 0.328 0.06 0.17 0.09 0.87 0.04 4.60 0.060 0.104 0.03 0.16 0.20 0.40 0.20 48% 67% 65% 75% 92% 61% 63% 1.949 0.450 1.630 0.130 2.080 1.155 1.008 0.478 0.530 0.111 0.036 0.009 0.268 0.045 0.081 0.035 0.314 0.032 1.907 3.527 3.060 1.700 1.361 0.321 0.145 0.120 0.493 0.287 0.093 1.180 0.110 0.059 2005 3.384 3.055 1.701 1.354 0.329 0.137 0.115 0.555 0.118 0.300 0.091 1.281 0.081 1.64 1.32 0.57 0.75 0.22 0.10 0.16 0.322 0.06 0.19 0.08 0.89 0.04 4.66 0.057 0.102 0.03 0.16 0.19 0.40 0.20 48% 68% 67% 75% 92% 62% 59% 2.073 0.463 1.757 0.147 2.220 1.117 0.976 0.473 0.502 0.108 0.034 0.010 0.336 0.055 0.086 0.037 0.392 0.039 2.033 3.520 3.055 1.701 1.354 0.329 0.137 0.115 0.555 0.300 0.091 1.281 0.105 0.054 2006 3.280 2.955 1.650 1.304 0.326 0.123 0.108 0.535 0.116 0.290 0.085 1.294 0.080 1.66 1.34 0.56 0.77 0.23 0.10 0.15 0.315 0.06 0.18 0.08 0.92 0.04 4.71 0.054 0.100 0.03 0.15 0.18 0.40 0.20 50% 71% 71% 78% 92% 63% 60% 1.897 0.438 1.591 0.131 2.028 0.993 0.870 0.440 0.430 0.096 0.027 0.009 0.320 0.051 0.078 0.034 0.374 0.036 1.860 3.403 2.955 1.650 1.304 0.326 0.123 0.108 0.535 0.290 0.085 1.294 0.100 0.051 2007 3.266 2.936 1.599 1.337 0.331 0.125 0.105 0.480 0.125 0.282 0.083 1.273 0.086 1.67 1.35 0.55 0.80 0.24 0.09 0.15 0.312 0.07 0.18 0.08 0.96 0.05 4.78 0.052 0.099 0.03 0.15 0.18 0.38 0.19 51% 71% 71% 69% 92% 64% 62% 1.753 0.423 1.484 0.155 1.907 0.995 0.861 0.427 0.435 0.095 0.038 0.008 0.267 0.057 0.072 0.031 0.312 0.040 1.743 3.391 2.936 1.599 1.337 0.331 0.125 0.105 0.480 0.282 0.083 1.273 0.096 0.052 2008 3.239 2.905 1.536 1.369 0.335 0.129 0.103 0.482 0.144 0.282 0.087 1.314 0.099 1.69 1.37 0.53 0.83 0.24 0.08 0.15 0.317 0.07 0.18 0.09 1.00 0.05 4.86 0.051 0.101 0.03 0.15 0.18 0.35 0.18 52% 71% 72% 62% 92% 64% 64% 1.735 0.423 1.505 0.194 1.929 0.996 0.853 0.419 0.434 0.094 0.048 0.008 0.265 0.071 0.072 0.031 0.310 0.050 1.753 3.368 2.905 1.536 1.369 0.335 0.129 0.103 0.482 0.282 0.087 1.314 0.095 0.056 2009 3.226 2.883 1.463 1.420 0.343 0.134 0.102 0.478 0.158 0.284 0.093 1.343 0.105 1.71 1.39 0.51 0.87 0.25 0.08 0.14 0.329 0.08 0.18 0.10 1.05 0.05 4.98 0.051 0.104 0.03 0.16 0.19 0.32 0.16 53% 70% 72% 58% 92% 63% 67% 1.710 0.419 1.503 0.213 1.922 1.010 0.859 0.415 0.444 0.095 0.056 0.008 0.253 0.076 0.071 0.030 0.296 0.054 1.745 3.360 2.883 1.463 1.420 0.343 0.134 0.102 0.478 0.284 0.093 1.343 0.094 0.063 **2010 3.226**  **2.873 1.393**  **1.480 0.354**  **0.142 0.100**  **0.489 0.169**  **0.290 0.102**  **1.382 0.107**  **1.75 1.41**  **0.50 0.91**  **0.26 0.08**  **0.14 0.347**  **0.09 0.18**  **0.11 1.09**  **0.05 5.13**  **0.050 0.110**  **0.04 0.16**  **0.20** 0.28 0.14 **55% 70%**  **73% 59%**  **92% 62%**  **70% 1.723**  **0.421 1.519**  **0.217 1.940**  **1.029 0.874**  **0.419 0.455**  **0.096 0.059**  **0.008 0.252**  **0.078 0.071**  **0.031 0.294**  **0.055 1.763**  **3.369 2.873**  **1.393 1.480**  **0.354 0.142**  **0.100 0.489**  **0.290 0.102**  **1.382 0.092**  **0.071** 2011 3.233 2.866 1.321 1.546 0.367 0.154 0.098 0.499 0.179 0.299 0.109 1.412 0.108 1.81 1.45 0.49 0.96 0.27 0.09 0.14 0.368 0.10 0.19 0.12 1.12 0.05 5.30 0.049 0.117 0.04 0.17 0.21 0.24 0.12 56% 69% 73% 60% 92% 62% 72% 1.723 0.419 1.526 0.221 1.945 1.045 0.885 0.420 0.465 0.098 0.062 0.008 0.248 0.078 0.071 0.031 0.289 0.055 1.769 3.387 2.866 1.321 1.546 0.367 0.154 0.098 0.499 0.299 0.109 1.412 0.090 0.079 2012 3.219 2.840 1.243 1.597 0.379 0.166 0.095 0.505 0.185 0.303 0.115 1.437 0.108 1.89 1.50 0.48 1.02 0.28 0.11 0.135 0.387 0.11 0.19 0.13 1.16 0.05 5.49 0.047 0.123 0.05 0.17 0.216 0.20 0.10 59% 69% 75% 63% 92% 62% 74% 1.682 0.407 1.493 0.218 1.900 1.024 0.867 0.409 0.458 0.096 0.061 0.008 0.241 0.077 0.069 0.030 0.281 0.054 1.730 3.385 2.840 1.243 1.597 0.379 0.166 0.095 0.505 0.303 0.115 1.437 0.087 0.085 2013 3.233 2.839 1.182 1.657 0.393 0.180 0.092 0.511 0.189 0.306 0.119 1.453 0.106 1.97 1.56 0.49 1.07 0.30 0.12 0.13 0.405 0.11 0.19 0.14 1.18 0.05 5.68 0.046 0.129 0.05 0.17 0.22 0.16 0.08 61% 70% 76% 65% 92% 62% 75% 1.658 0.399 1.479 0.220 1.878 1.020 0.862 0.403 0.459 0.095 0.063 0.008 0.235 0.077 0.069 0.030 0.274 0.054 1.712 3.413 2.839 1.182 1.657 0.393 0.180 0.092 0.511 0.306 0.119 1.453 0.084 0.089 2014 3.257 2.849 1.139 1.710 0.408 0.190 0.090 0.522 0.193 0.306 0.121 1.469 0.107 2.06 1.62 0.50 1.12 0.31 0.13 0.13 0.417 0.11 0.19 0.14 1.19 0.05 5.86 0.044 0.132 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.13 0.06 63% 70% 77% 66% 91% 61% 76% 1.655 0.396 1.484 0.225 1.880 1.014 0.856 0.399 0.457 0.094 0.064 0.008 0.238 0.080 0.068 0.029 0.277 0.056 1.714 3.447 2.849 1.139 1.710 0.408 0.190 0.090 0.522 0.306 0.121 1.469 0.082 0.091 2015 3.318 2.897 1.126 1.771 0.421 0.192 0.088 0.531 0.192 0.307 0.122 1.476 0.105 2.15 1.70 0.53 1.17 0.33 0.13 0.12 0.426 0.11 0.19 0.14 1.20 0.05 6.04 0.044 0.135 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.10 0.05 65% 70% 77% 66% 91% 61% 75% 1.676 0.398 1.508 0.230 1.906 1.029 0.868 0.402 0.466 0.096 0.066 0.008 0.241 0.081 0.069 0.030 0.281 0.057 1.739 3.511 2.897 1.126 1.771 0.421 0.192 0.088 0.531 0.307 0.122 1.476 0.081 0.092 2016 3.390 2.957 1.134 1.823 0.433 0.186 0.087 0.540 0.186 0.308 0.122 1.488 0.104 2.25 1.80 0.58 1.22 0.34 0.12 0.12 0.434 0.10 0.19 0.14 1.20 0.04 6.24 0.043 0.138 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.07 0.04 67% 71% 78% 64% 91% 61% 75% 1.685 0.398 1.523 0.235 1.920 1.033 0.870 0.401 0.468 0.096 0.067 0.008 0.244 0.084 0.070 0.030 0.285 0.059 1.754 3.576 2.957 1.134 1.823 0.433 0.186 0.087 0.540 0.308 0.122 1.488 0.079 0.092 2017 3.461 3.021 1.160 1.861 0.440 0.175 0.086 0.550 0.177 0.310 0.124 1.502 0.102 2.35 1.90 0.64 1.26 0.35 0.11 0.12 0.444 0.09 0.19 0.14 1.21 0.04 6.46 0.042 0.141 0.05 0.18 0.23 0.05 0.03 69% 72% 79% 62% 91% 61% 76% 1.673 0.392 1.519 0.238 1.911 1.018 0.856 0.394 0.462 0.095 0.067 0.008 0.247 0.085 0.069 0.030 0.289 0.060 1.745 3.636 3.021 1.160 1.861 0.440 0.175 0.086 0.550 0.310 0.124 1.502 0.078 0.094 2018 3.565 3.119 1.212 1.908 0.446 0.164 0.085 0.555 0.166 0.314 0.126 1.516 0.101 2.46 2.02 0.72 1.29 0.35 0.10 0.12 0.455 0.08 0.19 0.15 1.23 0.04 6.70 0.042 0.144 0.05 0.19 0.24 0.04 0.02 71% 72% 79% 58% 91% 61% 76% 1.671 0.387 1.522 0.238 1.909 1.024 0.860 0.392 0.468 0.095 0.068 0.008 0.245 0.085 0.069 0.030 0.286 0.060 1.746 3.729 3.119 1.212 1.908 0.446 0.164 0.085 0.555 0.314 0.126 1.516 0.077 0.096 2019 3.665 3.217 1.275 1.942 0.448 0.150 0.084 0.562 0.157 0.318 0.128 1.535 0.101 2.57 2.13 0.81 1.33 0.35 0.08 0.12 0.466 0.07 0.20 0.15 1.25 0.04 6.95 0.041 0.148 0.05 0.19 0.24 0.03 0.01 72% 73% 79% 54% 91% 62% 77% 1.661 0.381 1.519 0.239 1.900 1.018 0.855 0.387 0.468 0.094 0.069 0.008 0.244 0.085 0.069 0.030 0.285 0.060 1.739 3.814 3.217 1.275 1.942 0.448 0.150 0.084 0.562 0.318 0.128 1.535 0.076 0.098 **2020 3.764**  **3.317 1.349**  **1.968 0.447**  **0.134 0.082**  **0.573 0.151**  **0.320 0.130**  **1.560 0.102**  **2.67 2.251**  **0.902 1.350**  **0.35 0.07**  **0.11 0.478**  **0.06 0.20**  **0.15 1.27**  **0.04 7.20**  **0.040 0.152**  **0.05 0.19**  **0.25** 0.02 0.01 **74% 74%**  **79% 49%**  **91% 62%**  **77% 1.657**  **0.376 1.521**  **0.240 1.897**  **1.009 0.848**  **0.382 0.466**  **0.094 0.068**  **0.0077 0.247**  **0.087 0.0685**  **0.030 0.289**  **0.061 1.737**  **3.898 3.317**  **1.349 1.968**  **0.447 0.134**  **0.082 0.573**  **0.320 0.130**  **1.560 0.074**  **0.100** 2021 3.854 3.410 1.424 1.985 0.444 0.122 0.079 0.578 0.147 0.323 0.131 1.582 0.104 2.77 2.36 1.00 1.37 0.35 0.05 0.11 0.488 0.06 0.20 0.16 1.30 0.04 7.44 0.039 0.155 0.06 0.19 0.25 0.01 0.01 75% 75% 79% 43% 90% 62% 78% 1.634 0.367 1.508 0.241 1.875 0.997 0.836 0.373 0.463 0.092 0.069 0.008 0.245 0.087 0.068 0.029 0.286 0.061 1.719 3.975 3.410 1.424 1.985 0.444 0.122 0.079 0.578 0.323 0.131 1.582 0.072 0.102 2022 3.927 3.490 1.499 1.992 0.437 0.109 0.077 0.584 0.147 0.326 0.131 1.613 0.107 2.86 2.47 1.09 1.38 0.35 0.04 0.11 0.496 0.06 0.20 0.16 1.33 0.05 7.67 0.038 0.158 0.06 0.20 0.25 0.01 0.00 76% 77% 79% 38% 90% 63% 78% 1.611 0.358 1.493 0.240 1.851 0.975 0.817 0.364 0.453 0.090 0.068 0.008 0.245 0.088 0.067 0.029 0.287 0.062 1.697 4.036 3.490 1.499 1.992 0.437 0.109 0.077 0.584 0.326 0.131 1.613 0.070 0.102 2023 3.994 3.563 1.569 1.994 0.431 0.103 0.075 0.587 0.148 0.329 0.130 1.643 0.111 2.94 2.56 1.17 1.39 0.34 0.04 0.10 0.499 0.06 0.21 0.16 1.35 0.05 7.89 0.037 0.159 0.06 0.20 0.25 0.00 0.00 77% 78% 80% 36% 90% 63% 78% 1.590 0.350 1.479 0.238 1.829 0.954 0.799 0.354 0.445 0.088 0.066 0.007 0.247 0.088 0.066 0.028 0.288 0.062 1.678 4.097 3.563 1.569 1.994 0.431 0.103 0.075 0.587 0.329 0.130 1.643 0.068 0.102 2024 4.068 3.640 1.638 2.002 0.428 0.102 0.073 0.590 0.152 0.334 0.130 1.673 0.114 3.02 2.65 1.25 1.40 0.34 0.04 0.10 0.498 0.06 0.21 0.16 1.38 0.05 8.09 0.036 0.158 0.06 0.19 0.25 0.00 0.00 78% 78% 80% 36% 90% 64% 78% 1.590 0.345 1.483 0.239 1.829 0.948 0.795 0.351 0.444 0.088 0.066 0.007 0.250 0.089 0.066 0.028 0.292 0.062 1.679 4.170 3.640 1.638 2.002 0.428 0.102 0.073 0.590 0.334 0.130 1.673 0.066 0.102 2025 4.142 3.713 1.694 2.019 0.429 0.104 0.072 0.593 0.156 0.342 0.129 1.700 0.116 3.10 2.72 1.31 1.41 0.34 0.04 0.10 0.498 0.07 0.22 0.15 1.40 0.05 8.26 0.035 0.158 0.05 0.19 0.25 0.00 0.00 78% 78% 79% 37% 90% 65% 78% 1.606 0.344 1.502 0.240 1.846 0.956 0.801 0.351 0.451 0.088 0.066 0.007 0.253 0.089 0.066 0.029 0.296 0.063 1.697 4.247 3.713 1.694 2.019 0.429 0.104 0.072 0.593 0.342 0.129 1.700 0.065 0.100 2026 4.199 3.767 1.732 2.035 0.432 0.110 0.071 0.597 0.161 0.350 0.125 1.726 0.119 3.16 2.77 1.35 1.42 0.34 0.04 0.10 0.497 0.07 0.23 0.15 1.42 0.05 8.39 0.034 0.158 0.05 0.19 0.24 0.00 0.00 79% 79% 79% 39% 89% 66% 77% 1.619 0.344 1.519 0.244 1.863 0.960 0.804 0.351 0.454 0.089 0.067 0.008 0.258 0.091 0.067 0.029 0.301 0.064 1.714 4.308 3.767 1.732 2.035 0.432 0.110 0.071 0.597 0.350 0.125 1.726 0.063 0.096 2027 4.230 3.793 1.747 2.046 0.437 0.115 0.069 0.598 0.166 0.357 0.119 1.747 0.121 3.21 2.81 1.37 1.44 0.35 0.05 0.10 0.498 0.07 0.24 0.14 1.44 0.06 8.51 0.033 0.158 0.05 0.19 0.24 0.00 0.00 79% 79% 80% 42% 89% 68% 76% 1.602 0.340 1.509 0.246 1.849 0.945 0.791 0.345 0.446 0.087 0.067 0.007 0.258 0.093 0.066 0.029 0.302 0.065 1.700 4.345 3.793 1.747 2.046 0.437 0.115 0.069 0.598 0.357 0.119 1.747 0.062 0.091 2028 4.240 3.797 1.742 2.055 0.443 0.119 0.068 0.597 0.169 0.363 0.111 1.762 0.123 3.25 2.84 1.38 1.46 0.36 0.05 0.09 0.501 0.08 0.25 0.13 1.46 0.06 8.61 0.033 0.159 0.05 0.19 0.24 0.00 0.00 80% 80% 81% 45% 89% 70% 75% 1.562 0.330 1.478 0.246 1.808 0.915 0.765 0.334 0.432 0.084 0.066 0.007 0.255 0.094 0.065 0.028 0.298 0.066 1.662 4.359 3.797 1.742 2.055 0.443 0.119 0.068 0.597 0.363 0.111 1.762 0.060 0.083 2029 4.266 3.813 1.732 2.081 0.453 0.123 0.066 0.601 0.172 0.370 0.102 1.780 0.124 3.29 2.86 1.37 1.49 0.37 0.06 0.09 0.506 0.08 0.27 0.12 1.48 0.06 8.69 0.032 0.161 0.04 0.19 0.23 0.00 0.00 80% 80% 82% 47% 89% 72% 73% 1.550 0.326 1.470 0.246 1.797 0.906 0.757 0.329 0.427 0.084 0.065 0.007 0.256 0.094 0.064 0.028 0.299 0.066 1.653 4.389 3.813 1.732 2.081 0.453 0.123 0.066 0.601 0.370 0.102 1.780 0.059 0.075 **2030 4.299**  **3.835 1.717**  **2.118 0.465**  **0.125 0.065**  **0.609 0.174**  **0.376 0.095**  **1.801 0.125**  **3.32 2.884**  **1.357 1.526**  **0.38 0.06**  **0.09 0.514**  **0.08 0.28**  **0.10 1.50**  **0.06 8.77**  **0.031 0.163**  **0.04 0.19**  **0.23** 0.00 0.00 **80% 80%**  **82% 48%**  **89% 73%**  **71% 1.555**  **0.325 1.477**  0.246 **1.801 0.905**  **0.756 0.328**  **0.428 0.083**  **0.065 0.007**  **0.258 0.095**  **0.064 0.028**  **0.302 0.067**  **1.659 4.424**  **3.835 1.717**  **2.118 0.465**  **0.125 0.065**  **0.609 0.376**  **0.095 1.801**  **0.058 0.068**  2031 4.334 3.857 1.698 2.159 0.477 0.127 0.064 0.618 0.176 0.380 0.090 1.822 0.126 3.36 2.90 1.34 1.56 0.39 0.06 0.09 0.522 0.08 0.28 0.10 1.52 0.06 8.84 0.031 0.166 0.03 0.20 0.23 0.00 0.00 80% 80% 82% 49% 89% 74% 69% 1.562 0.326 1.484 0.246 1.809 0.906 0.757 0.329 0.428 0.084 0.065 0.007 0.261 0.095 0.065 0.028 0.305 0.067 1.667 4.460 3.857 1.698 2.159 0.477 0.127 0.064 0.618 0.380 0.090 1.822 0.057 0.062 2032 4.368 3.880 1.677 2.203 0.489 0.128 0.063 0.627 0.177 0.383 0.088 1.845 0.127 3.39 2.92 1.32 1.61 0.40 0.06 0.09 0.531 0.08 0.29 0.09 1.54 0.06 8.92 0.030 0.169 0.03 0.20 0.23 0.00 0.00 80% 80% 83% 50% 88% 75% 68% 1.570 0.328 1.491 0.246 1.817 0.906 0.758 0.331 0.428 0.084 0.064 0.007 0.265 0.096 0.065 0.028 0.309 0.068 1.676 4.496 3.880 1.677 2.203 0.489 0.128 0.063 0.627 0.383 0.088 1.845 0.056 0.060 2033 4.405 3.906 1.657 2.249 0.500 0.128 0.062 0.636 0.179 0.386 0.088 1.869 0.128 3.43 2.95 1.30 1.65 0.42 0.06 0.08 0.539 0.08 0.29 0.09 1.56 0.06 9.01 0.030 0.171 0.03 0.20 0.23 0.00 0.00 81% 81% 83% 50% 88% 75% 68% 1.578 0.329 1.499 0.246 1.825 0.907 0.759 0.332 0.427 0.084 0.063 0.007 0.268 0.097 0.065 0.028 0.313 0.068 1.685 4.533 3.906 1.657 2.249 0.500 0.128 0.062 0.636 0.386 0.088 1.869 0.055 0.060 2034 4.445 3.936 1.640 2.296 0.509 0.129 0.061 0.645 0.181 0.389 0.091 1.895 0.129 3.46 2.97 1.28 1.70 0.43 0.07 0.08 0.547 0.08 0.29 0.10 1.58 0.06 9.11 0.029 0.174 0.03 0.20 0.24 0.00 0.00 81% 81% 84% 51% 88% 74% 69% 1.586 0.331 1.506 0.246 1.832 0.907 0.760 0.333 0.427 0.084 0.063 0.007 0.271 0.097 0.066 0.028 0.317 0.068 1.694 4.574 3.936 1.640 2.296 0.509 0.129 0.061 0.645 0.389 0.091 1.895 0.054 0.062 2035 4.493 3.977 1.634 2.343 0.516 0.129 0.060 0.654 0.183 0.394 0.094 1.922 0.130 3.51 3.01 1.27 1.74 0.43 0.07 0.08 0.555 0.08 0.29 0.10 1.60 0.06 9.24 0.029 0.176 0.04 0.20 0.24 0.00 0.00 81% 81% 84% 52% 88% 74% 70% 1.594 0.333 1.514 0.246 1.840 0.907 0.761 0.335 0.427 0.084 0.062 0.007 0.275 0.098 0.066 0.028 0.321 0.069 1.703 4.622 3.977 1.634 2.343 0.516 0.129 0.060 0.654 0.394 0.094 1.922 0.053 0.066 2036 4.547 4.026 1.638 2.388 0.521 0.129 0.059 0.662 0.184 0.400 0.098 1.950 0.131 3.56 3.06 1.27 1.78 0.44 0.07 0.08 0.56 0.09 0.30 0.11 1.63 0.06 9.37 0.028 0.179 0.04 0.21 0.24 0.00 0.00 81% 81% 84% 52% 87% 74% 71% 1.602 0.334 1.521 0.246 1.848 0.908 0.762 0.336 0.426 0.084 0.062 0.007 0.278 0.098 0.066 0.029 0.325 0.069 1.712 4.676 4.026 1.638 2.388 0.521 0.129 0.059 0.662 0.400 0.098 1.950 0.051 0.069 2037 4.606 4.082 1.653 2.429 0.524 0.129 0.058 0.670 0.185 0.405 0.101 1.979 0.132 3.62 3.11 1.29 1.82 0.44 0.07 0.08 0.57 0.09 0.30 0.11 1.65 0.06 9.53 0.027 0.181 0.04 0.21 0.25 0.00 0.00 81% 81% 84% 53% 87% 74% 72% 1.610 0.336 1.529 0.246 1.856 0.908 0.763 0.337 0.426 0.084 0.061 0.008 0.282 0.099 0.067 0.029 0.329 0.070 1.721 4.735 4.082 1.653 2.429 0.524 0.129 0.058 0.670 0.405 0.101 1.979 0.050 0.072 2038 4.670 4.146 1.678 2.467 0.525 0.129 0.057 0.678 0.187 0.410 0.104 2.008 0.133 3.68 3.17 1.31 1.86 0.44 0.07 0.08 0.58 0.09 0.30 0.12 1.67 0.06 9.69 0.027 0.183 0.04 0.21 0.25 0.00 0.00 82% 82% 84% 53% 87% 74% 72% 1.618 0.338 1.537 0.246 1.864 0.908 0.763 0.338 0.425 0.084 0.061 0.008 0.285 0.100 0.067 0.029 0.333 0.070 1.730 4.799 4.146 1.678 2.467 0.525 0.129 0.057 0.678 0.410 0.104 2.008 0.049 0.075

1 **Modeled Shipments -- sum of Replacements, Conversions, and New Housing (million) Conversion Rates** 

**Modeled Replacements (mllion) Conversions from (million)**  **Percentage of Shipments which are to Existing Homes**

Gas Furnace Electric Furnace Heat Pump Electric Furnace Gas Furnace SF + MF Completions **Base Case Shipments**

Heat Pump **Shipments (million)** Oil Replacements Less Conversions **Modeled New Construction Installations (million)**

Gas Furnace Electric Furnace Heat Pump Gas Furnace Gas Furnace**Non-Weatherized Furnaces Mobile Home Furnaces** 

New Housing MS - US New Housing

MS- Cold New Housing

MS - Warm New

Construction - US New

Construction - Cold New

Construction - Warm Replacement

s -US Replacement

s -Cold Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - ColdTotal - WarmNew Housing MS - US New Housing

MS- Cold New Housing

MS - Warm New

Construction - US New

Construction - Cold New

Construction - Warm Replacement

s -US Replacement

s -Cold Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - ColdTotal - WarmNew Housing MS - US New Housing

MS- Cold New Housing

MS - Warm New

Construction - US New

Construction - Cold New

Construction - Warm Replacement

s -US Replacement

s -Cold Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - ColdTotal - WarmNew Housing MS - US New Housing

MS- Cold New Housing

MS - Warm New

Construction - US New

Construction - Cold New

Construction - Warm Replacement

s -US Replacement

s -Cold Replacement

s -Warm Total - US Total - ColdTotal - Warm New Housing MS - US New

Housing MS- Cold New

Housing MS - New

Construct ion - US New

Construct ion - New

Construct ion - Replacem

ents -USReplace

ments - Cold Replace

ments - Warm Total -

US Total -

Cold Total -

Warm New

Housing Market New

Construct ion Replacem

ents Total New Housing Market New

Construct ion Replace

ments Total New Housing Market New

Construct ion Replace

ments Total New Housing Market New

Construct ion Replace

ments Total New Housing Market New

Construct ion Replace

ments Total

2015 -0.0007%-0.0003%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.201% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 0.00 -1.84% -0.65% -1.87% -0.031 -0.003 -0.028 -0.027 -0.018 -0.016 -0.06 -0.02 -0.04 -7.19%-2.54%-7.32%-0.120-0.010-0.110-0.104-0.071-0.063-0.22 -0.08 -0.17 -0.22%-0.0005 -0.0005-0.22%-0.0005 -0.0005-1.85%-0.004 -0.00425-6.36%-0.015 -0.01464-6.36%-0.015 -0.01464 1985 34.4% 2016 -0.001% -0.0003%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.201% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.84% -0.65% -1.87% -0.031 -0.003 -0.028 -0.028 -0.018 -0.018 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.20%-2.53%-7.31%-0.121-0.010-0.111 -0.109-0.070-0.069-0.23 -0.08 -0.18 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.85%-0.004 0.000-0.00435-6.37%-0.015 0.000-0.01500-6.37%-0.015 0.000-0.01500 1986 34.8% 2017 -0.001% -0.0003%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.202% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.006 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.85% -0.65% -1.87% -0.031 -0.003 -0.028 -0.028 -0.019 -0.018 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.22%-2.53%-7.29%-0.121-0.010-0.111 -0.110-0.073-0.069-0.23 -0.08 -0.18 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.85%-0.004 0.000-0.00441-6.39%-0.015 0.000-0.01520-6.39%-0.015 0.000-0.01520 1987 35.1% 2018 -0.001% -0.0003%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.202% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.85% -0.65% -1.87% -0.031 -0.003 -0.028 -0.029 -0.019 -0.018 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.23%-2.53%-7.29%-0.121-0.010-0.111 -0.112-0.074-0.072-0.23 -0.08 -0.18 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.86%-0.004 0.000-0.00443-6.40%-0.015 0.000-0.01527-6.40%-0.015 0.000-0.01527 1988 35.4% 2019 -0.001% -0.0003%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.203% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.86% -0.65% -1.87% -0.031 -0.002 -0.028 -0.029 -0.020 -0.019 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.25%-2.53%-7.29%-0.120-0.010-0.111 -0.113-0.077-0.072-0.23 -0.09 -0.18 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.86%-0.004 0.000-0.00445-6.42%-0.015 0.000-0.01532-6.42%-0.015 0.000-0.01532 1989 35.8% **2020 -0.001%**  -0.0003%-0.0007% **0.0000 0.0000**  **0.0000 0.000**  **0.000 0.000**  **0.000 0.000**  **0.000 -0.203%**  **-0.07% -0.20%**  **-0.003 0.000**  **-0.003 -0.003**  **-0.002 -0.002**  **-0.007 -0.002**  **-0.005 -0.20%**  **-0.07% -0.20%**  **-0.003 0.000**  **-0.003 -0.003**  **-0.002 -0.002**  **-0.01 0.00**  **-0.01 -1.86%**  **-0.65% -1.87%**  **-0.031 -0.002**  **-0.028 -0.029**  **-0.020 -0.019**  **-0.060 -0.023**  **-0.047 -7.26%** **-2.53% -7.29%** **-0.120 -0.010** **-0.111 -0.114** **-0.079 -0.073** **-0.234 -0.089** **-0.184**-0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.87%-0.004 0.000-0.00448-6.43%-0.015 0.000-0.01543-6.43%-0.015 0.000-0.01543 1990 36.1% 2021 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.204% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.86% -0.65% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.030 -0.020 -0.019 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.28%-2.52%-7.27%-0.119-0.009-0.110-0.115-0.080-0.075-0.23 -0.09 -0.18 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.87%-0.005 0.000-0.00451-6.45%-0.016 0.000-0.01553-6.45%-0.016 0.000-0.01553 1991 36.5% 2022 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.204% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.87% -0.65% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.030 -0.021 -0.020 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.29%-2.52%-7.26%-0.117-0.009-0.108-0.117-0.080-0.076-0.23 -0.09 -0.18 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.87%-0.005 0.000-0.00450-6.46%-0.016 0.000-0.01551-6.46%-0.016 0.000-0.01551 1992 36.8% 2023 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.204% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.87% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.030 -0.021 -0.020 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.31%-2.52%-7.26%-0.116-0.009-0.107-0.118-0.080-0.078-0.23 -0.09 -0.18 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.88%-0.004 0.000-0.00448-6.47%-0.015 0.000-0.01544-6.47%-0.015 0.000-0.01544 1993 37.3% 2024 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.205% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.20% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.87% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.030 -0.021 -0.020 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.32%-2.52%-7.26%-0.116-0.009-0.108-0.119-0.080-0.079-0.24 -0.09 -0.19 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.88%-0.004 0.000-0.00450-6.49%-0.015 0.000-0.01549-6.49%-0.015 0.000-0.01549 1994 37.9% 2025 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.205% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.88% -0.65% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.031 -0.021 -0.020 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.33%-2.52%-7.27%-0.118-0.009-0.109-0.120-0.080-0.080-0.24 -0.09 -0.19 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.89%-0.005 0.000-0.00453-6.50%-0.016 0.000-0.01561-6.50%-0.016 -0.001-0.01642 1995 38.8% 2026 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.205% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.88% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.031 -0.021 -0.021 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.35%-2.52%-7.26%-0.119-0.009-0.110-0.121 -0.080-0.081 -0.24 -0.09 -0.19 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0005-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.89%-0.005 0.000-0.00461-6.52%-0.016 0.000-0.01617-6.52%-0.016 -0.003-0.01916 1996 41.7% 2027 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.206% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.88% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.031 -0.021 -0.021 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.36%-2.51%-7.25%-0.118-0.009-0.109-0.122-0.081-0.083-0.24 -0.09 -0.19 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0006-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.90%-0.005 0.000-0.00484-6.53%-0.016 -0.001-0.01693-6.53%-0.016 -0.008-0.02431 1997 40.5% 2028 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.206% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.002 -0.005 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.003 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.89% -0.64% -1.85% -0.029 -0.002 -0.027 -0.032 -0.021 -0.022 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.37%-2.51%-7.23%-0.115-0.008-0.107-0.124-0.081-0.085-0.24 -0.09 -0.19 -0.22%-0.0005 0.000 -0.0006-0.22%-0.00050.000-0.0005-1.90%-0.005 -0.001-0.00519-6.55%-0.016 -0.002-0.01781-6.55%-0.016 -0.017-0.03262 1998 41.0% 2029 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.206% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.007 -0.003 -0.005 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.002 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.89% -0.64% -1.85% -0.029 -0.002 -0.027 -0.032 -0.021 -0.022 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.38%-2.51%-7.22%-0.114-0.008-0.106-0.126-0.082-0.087-0.24 -0.09 -0.19 -0.22%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0006-0.22%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.90%-0.005 -0.001-0.00573-6.56%-0.016 -0.003-0.01901-6.56%-0.016 -0.028-0.04370 1999 40.3% 2030 **-0.001%** -0.0002%-0.0007% **0.0000 0.0000**  **0.0000 0.000**  **0.000 0.000**  **0.000 0.000**  **0.000 -0.207%**  **-0.07% -0.20%**  **-0.003 0.000**  **-0.003 -0.004**  **-0.002 -0.003**  **-0.007 -0.003**  **-0.005 -0.21%**  **-0.07% -0.20%**  **-0.003 0.000**  **-0.003 -0.004**  **-0.002 -0.003**  **-0.01 0.00**  **-0.01 -1.89%**  **-0.64% -1.85%**  **-0.029 -0.002**  **-0.027 -0.033**  **-0.021 -0.023**  **-0.062 -0.023**  **-0.050 -7.39%** **-2.51% -7.23%** **-0.115 -0.008** **-0.107 -0.128** **-0.083 -0.090** **-0.243 -0.091**  **-0.197**-0.22%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0006-0.22%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.91%-0.005 -0.002-0.00644-6.57%-0.016 -0.004-0.02048-6.57%-0.016 -0.041-0.05683 2000 39.7% 2031 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.207% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.89% -0.64% -1.85% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.033 -0.022 -0.024 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.40%-2.51%-7.24%-0.116-0.008-0.107-0.131 -0.084-0.093-0.25 -0.09 -0.20 -0.22%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0007-0.22%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.91%-0.005 -0.003-0.00732-6.59%-0.016 -0.006-0.02225-6.59%-0.016 -0.055-0.07139 2001 40.1% 2032 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.207% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.90% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.034 -0.022 -0.025 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.40%-2.51%-7.24%-0.116-0.008-0.108-0.133-0.085-0.096-0.25 -0.09 -0.20 -0.23%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0007-0.23%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.92%-0.005 -0.003-0.00805-6.60%-0.016 -0.008-0.02431-6.60%-0.016 -0.070-0.08672 2002 40.5% 2033 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.207% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.90% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.035 -0.022 -0.025 -0.06 -0.02 -0.05 -7.41%-2.51%-7.25%-0.117-0.008-0.109-0.136-0.087-0.099-0.25 -0.10 -0.21 -0.23%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0007-0.23%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.92%-0.005 -0.004-0.00860-6.62%-0.016 -0.010-0.02614-6.62%-0.016 -0.086-0.10213 2003 40.9% 2034 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.207% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.90% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.036 -0.023 -0.026 -0.07 -0.02 -0.05 -7.42%-2.52%-7.26%-0.118-0.008-0.109-0.139-0.088-0.102-0.26 -0.10 -0.21 -0.23%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0008-0.23%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.92%-0.005 -0.004-0.00899-6.63%-0.016 -0.011-0.02774-6.63%-0.016 -0.101-0.11759 2004 41.3% 2035 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.208% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.007 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.002 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.90% -0.64% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.036 -0.023 -0.027 -0.07 -0.03 -0.06 -7.42%-2.52%-7.26%-0.118-0.008-0.110-0.142-0.089-0.105-0.26 -0.10 -0.22 -0.23%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0008-0.23%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.93%-0.005 -0.004-0.00920-6.65%-0.016 -0.013-0.02908-6.65%-0.016 -0.117-0.13310 2005 41.6% 2036 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.208% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.007 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.90% -0.65% -1.86% -0.030 -0.002 -0.028 -0.037 -0.023 -0.028 -0.07 -0.03 -0.06 -7.43%-2.52%-7.27%-0.119-0.008-0.111 -0.145-0.091-0.109-0.26 -0.10 -0.22 -0.23%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0009-0.23%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.93%-0.005 -0.004-0.00923-6.66%-0.016 -0.014-0.03018-6.66%-0.016 -0.132-0.14864 2006 42.0% 2037 -0.001% -0.0002%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.208% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.007 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.90% -0.65% -1.86% -0.031 -0.002 -0.028 -0.038 -0.023 -0.029 -0.07 -0.03 -0.06 -7.43%-2.52%-7.27%-0.120-0.008-0.111 -0.148-0.091-0.112-0.27 -0.10 -0.22 -0.23%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0009-0.23%-0.00060.000-0.0006-1.94%-0.005 -0.004-0.00926-6.67%-0.016 -0.015-0.03103-6.67%-0.016 -0.148-0.16426 2007 42.4% 2038 -0.001% -0.0003%-0.0007% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 -0.208% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.008 -0.003 -0.006 -0.21% -0.07% -0.20% -0.003 0.000 -0.003 -0.004 -0.003 -0.003 -0.01 0.00 -0.01 -1.91% -0.65% -1.86% -0.031 -0.002 -0.029 -0.039 -0.024 -0.029 -0.07 -0.03 -0.06 -7.44%-2.52%-7.28%-0.120-0.009-0.112-0.151 -0.092-0.115-0.27 -0.10 -0.23 -0.23%-0.0006 0.000 -0.0010-0.23%-0.00060.000-0.0007-1.94%-0.005 -0.004-0.00928-6.69%-0.016 -0.015-0.03164-6.69%-0.016 -0.163-0.17998 2008 42.8% 2009 43.3% 2010 43.7% 2011 44.1% 2012 44.5% 2013 44.9% 2014 45.4% 2015 45.8% 2016 46.2% 2017 46.7% 2018 47.1% 2019 47.6% 2020 48.0% 2021 48.5% 2022 48.9% 2023 49.4% 2024 49.9% 2025 50.4% Percent of NWGF to South 90% AFUE Condensing Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions) Incremental Shipments (Millions) 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area **Change in Shipments from Standards**

**Incremental Shipments (Millions)** 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 90% AFUE 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 90% AFUE Condensing 96% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous)Percent Electric Central Heating that is Electric Furnace Percent Electric Central Heating which is Electric Furnace NonCentral Heating decline factor
0.978 Model Parameters Model Parameters Model Parameters

TotalGas share of Total Fuel Equipment2003 MS Fuel Equipment2003 MS Fuel Equipment2003 MS Gas Oil Electric Gas Oil Heat CentralGas + Electric Gas Oil Electric Gas Oil Heat Central Change in -0.84 -0.37 44.0% -0.34 -0.13 90.8% -1.06 -0.50 35.7% Source: AEO 2007 FurnaceFurnaceFurnaceBoilers Boilers Pump HeatingCentral HeatingFurnace Furnace Furnace Boilers Boilers Pump Heating Gas to Electricity

1951 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% Price Ratio Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5Base CaseTSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 NE MW South West Percent SouthBase Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5 Base Case TSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5Base CaseTSL 1 TSL 2 TSL 3 TSL 4 TSL 5
1952 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% **2003** 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 44.0% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 90.8% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 35.7% 0.185 0.399 0.909 0.491 45.8% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 69.3% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 60.6% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 27.2% 1953 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% **2004** 9.6% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40.4% 40.4% 40.4% 40.4% 40.4% 40.4% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 32.0% 0.176 0.412 0.966 0.526 46.5% 65.8% 65.8% 65.8% 65.8% 65.8% 65.8% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 27.8% 27.8% 27.8% 27.8% 27.8% 27.8% 1954 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% **2005** 24.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 34.8% 34.8% 34.8% 34.8% 34.8% 34.8% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 83.1% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 26.3% 0.190 0.397 1.071 0.562 48.2% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 59.8% 52.3% 52.3% 52.3% 52.3% 52.3% 52.3% 22.8% 22.8% 22.8% 22.8% 22.8% 22.8% 1955 50.1% 5.0% 6.4% 6.3% 6.9% 4.6% 79.4% 81.9% 37.5% 5.0% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 64.8% **2006** 30.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 32.6% 32.6% 32.6% 32.6% 32.6% 32.6% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% 81.3% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 24.0% 0.185 0.383 0.963 0.497 47.5% 58.2% 58.2% 58.2% 58.2% 58.2% 58.2% 50.9% 50.9% 50.9% 50.9% 50.9% 50.9% 20.9% 20.9% 20.9% 20.9% 20.9% 20.9% 1956 49.8% 4.8% 6.9% 6.3% 6.7% 4.9% 79.5% 80.8% 38.4% 4.9% 16.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 66.0% **2007** 19.3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 36.9% 84.8% 84.8% 84.8% 84.8% 84.8% 84.8% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 0.181 0.378 0.897 0.451 47.0% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 62.3% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8% 24.8% 1957 49.6% 4.7% 7.4% 6.3% 6.5% 5.2% 79.6% 79.8% 39.4% 4.9% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 67.2% **2008** 18.9% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 37.0% 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 84.9% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 28.5% 0.179 0.378 0.915 0.456 47.4% 62.2% 62.2% 62.2% 62.2% 62.2% 62.2% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 54.6% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0% 1958 49.3% 4.5% 7.8% 6.3% 6.3% 5.5% 79.8% 78.8% 40.3% 4.8% 17.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 68.4% **2009** 14.8% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 38.5% 86.2% 86.2% 86.2% 86.2% 86.2% 86.2% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 30.1% 0.175 0.375 0.917 0.456 47.7% 63.5% 63.5% 63.5% 63.5% 63.5% 63.5% 55.8% 55.8% 55.8% 55.8% 55.8% 55.8% 26.4% 26.4% 26.4% 26.4% 26.4% 26.4% 1959 49.1% 4.3% 8.3% 6.3% 6.1% 5.7% 79.9% 77.8% 41.3% 4.8% 17.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 69.6% **2010** 13.0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 39.2% 39.2% 39.2% 39.2% 39.2% 39.2% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 86.7% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 30.8% 0.173 0.377 0.928 0.462 47.8% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 64.0% 56.3% 56.3% 56.3% 56.3% 56.3% 56.3% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0% 1960 48.8% 4.2% 8.7% 6.4% 5.9% 6.0% 80.0% 76.8% 42.3% 4.8% 18.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 70.8% **2011** 10.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 40.0% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4% 87.4% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 31.6% 0.171 0.375 0.933 0.466 48.0% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 64.7% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 57.0% 27.9% 27.9% 27.9% 27.9% 27.9% 27.9% 1961 48.6% 4.0% 9.2% 6.4% 5.7% 6.3% 80.1% 75.8% 43.2% 4.7% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 72.1% **2012** 10.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40.2% 40.2% 40.2% 40.2% 40.2% 40.2% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 87.6% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 31.9% 0.164 0.363 0.915 0.458 48.1% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 57.2% 57.2% 57.2% 57.2% 57.2% 57.2% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 28.1% 1962 48.3% 3.8% 9.7% 6.4% 5.5% 6.5% 80.3% 74.9% 44.2% 4.7% 18.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 73.3% **2013** 8.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40.8% 40.8% 40.8% 40.8% 40.8% 40.8% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 88.1% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 32.5% 0.160 0.355 0.907 0.456 48.3% 65.3% 65.3% 65.3% 65.3% 65.3% 65.3% 57.7% 57.7% 57.7% 57.7% 57.7% 57.7% 28.7% 28.7% 28.7% 28.7% 28.7% 28.7% 1963 48.1% 3.7% 10.1% 6.4% 5.3% 6.8% 80.4% 73.9% 45.1% 4.6% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 74.5% **2014** 9.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 40.5% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 87.8% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 32.1% 0.158 0.351 0.912 0.460 48.5% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 64.8% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 57.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 28.4% 1964 47.8% 3.5% 10.6% 6.4% 5.1% 7.1% 80.5% 73.0% 46.1% 4.6% 19.3% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 75.7% **2015** 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.6% 40.6% 40.3% 40.3% 38.2% 31.1% 87.9% 87.9% 87.7% 87.7% 86.2% 81.1% 32.2% 32.0% 32.0% 30.1% 25.0% 25.0% 0.157 0.352 0.928 0.469 48.7% 64.9% 64.9% 64.7% 64.7% 62.8% 56.8% 57.5% 57.5% 57.3% 57.3% 55.7% 50.3% 28.6% 28.4% 28.4% 26.8% 22.3% 22.3% 1965 47.5% 3.3% 11.1% 6.4% 4.9% 7.3% 80.6% 72.1% 47.1% 4.5% 19.6% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 76.9% **2016** 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.4% 40.4% 40.1% 40.1% 37.9% 30.9% 87.8% 87.7% 87.6% 87.6% 86.0% 81.0% 32.0% 31.7% 31.7% 29.9% 24.8% 24.8% 0.156 0.350 0.939 0.476 48.9% 64.6% 64.6% 64.4% 64.4% 62.5% 56.5% 57.3% 57.3% 57.1% 57.1% 55.5% 50.1% 28.5% 28.3% 28.3% 26.7% 22.1% 22.1% 1966 46.7% 3.2% 12.1% 6.2% 4.6% 7.8% 80.6% 70.1% 46.9% 4.5% 19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 76.9% **2017** 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 39.8% 39.8% 39.6% 39.6% 37.4% 30.3% 87.3% 87.3% 87.1% 87.1% 85.6% 80.5% 31.4% 31.2% 31.2% 29.4% 24.3% 24.3% 0.152 0.343 0.939 0.477 49.1% 64.0% 64.0% 63.7% 63.7% 61.9% 55.8% 56.8% 56.8% 56.6% 56.6% 55.0% 49.6% 28.1% 27.9% 27.9% 26.2% 21.7% 21.7% 1967 45.8% 3.1% 13.1% 5.9% 4.4% 8.2% 80.5% 68.2% 46.7% 4.5% 19.3% 0.1% 0.0% 6.4% 77.0% **2018** 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.3% 40.3% 40.1% 40.1% 37.9% 30.8% 87.7% 87.7% 87.5% 87.5% 86.0% 80.9% 31.9% 31.7% 31.7% 29.9% 24.8% 24.8% 0.149 0.338 0.943 0.479 49.4% 64.3% 64.3% 64.1% 64.1% 62.2% 56.2% 57.2% 57.2% 57.0% 57.0% 55.3% 50.0% 28.6% 28.4% 28.4% 26.7% 22.2% 22.2% 1968 44.9% 3.0% 14.1% 5.7% 4.1% 8.7% 80.5% 66.3% 46.5% 4.4% 19.2% 0.1% 0.0% 6.7% 77.0% **2019** 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.4% 40.4% 40.1% 40.1% 37.9% 30.9% 87.7% 87.7% 87.6% 87.6% 86.0% 80.9% 32.0% 31.7% 31.7% 29.9% 24.8% 24.8% 0.145 0.331 0.944 0.480 49.7% 64.2% 64.2% 64.0% 64.0% 62.1% 56.1% 57.2% 57.2% 57.0% 57.0% 55.3% 49.9% 28.7% 28.5% 28.5% 26.8% 22.3% 22.3% 1969 44.0% 2.9% 15.1% 5.4% 3.8% 9.2% 80.4% 64.4% 46.3% 4.4% 19.0% 0.2% 0.1% 7.1% 77.0% **2020** 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.0% 40.0% 39.7% 39.7% 37.6% 30.5% 87.4% 87.4% 87.2% 87.2% 85.7% 80.6% 31.6% 31.4% 31.4% 29.5% 24.4% 24.4% 0.141 0.326 0.948 0.482 50.0% 63.7% 63.7% 63.5% 63.5% 61.6% 55.6% 56.8% 56.8% 56.6% 56.6% 54.9% 49.5% 28.4% 28.2% 28.2% 26.5% 22.0% 22.0% 1970 43.1% 2.8% 16.1% 5.2% 3.6% 9.6% 80.4% 62.6% 46.1% 4.3% 18.9% 0.2% 0.1% 7.4% 77.0% **2021** 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 40.1% 40.1% 39.8% 39.8% 37.7% 30.6% 87.5% 87.5% 87.3% 87.3% 85.8% 80.7% 31.7% 31.5% 31.5% 29.6% 24.5% 24.5% 0.136 0.317 0.944 0.479 50.3% 63.7% 63.6% 63.4% 63.4% 61.6% 55.5% 56.8% 56.8% 56.6% 56.6% 54.9% 49.5% 28.6% 28.3% 28.3% 26.7% 22.1% 22.1% 1971 42.2% 2.7% 17.2% 4.9% 3.3% 10.1% 80.3% 60.8% 46.0% 4.3% 18.7% 0.2% 0.1% 7.8% 77.0% **2022** 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 39.6% 39.6% 39.3% 39.3% 37.1% 30.1% 87.1% 87.1% 86.9% 86.9% 85.3% 80.3% 31.2% 30.9% 30.9% 29.1% 24.0% 24.0% 0.131 0.308 0.937 0.475 50.6% 63.0% 63.0% 62.8% 62.8% 60.9% 54.9% 56.3% 56.3% 56.1% 56.1% 54.4% 49.0% 28.1% 27.9% 27.9% 26.3% 21.7% 21.7% 1972 41.3% 2.6% 18.2% 4.7% 3.0% 10.5% 80.3% 59.0% 45.8% 4.2% 18.5% 0.3% 0.1% 8.1% 77.0% **2023** 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 39.0% 39.0% 38.8% 38.8% 36.6% 29.5% 86.6% 86.6% 86.4% 86.4% 84.9% 79.8% 30.6% 30.4% 30.4% 28.5% 23.5% 23.5% 0.126 0.299 0.931 0.473 50.9% 62.4% 62.4% 62.2% 62.2% 60.3% 54.2% 55.8% 55.8% 55.6% 55.6% 53.9% 48.5% 27.7% 27.5% 27.5% 25.8% 21.2% 21.2% 1973 39.2% 2.8% 19.2% 4.2% 3.4% 12.2% 81.0% 55.5% 45.0% 4.3% 19.3% 0.3% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% **2024** 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 38.7% 38.7% 38.5% 38.5% 36.3% 29.2% 86.4% 86.4% 86.2% 86.2% 84.6% 79.6% 30.3% 30.1% 30.1% 28.2% 23.1% 23.1% 0.123 0.295 0.936 0.475 51.2% 62.0% 62.0% 61.8% 61.8% 59.9% 53.8% 55.5% 55.5% 55.3% 55.3% 53.6% 48.2% 27.5% 27.3% 27.3% 25.6% 21.0% 21.0% 1974 32% 2% 22% 3% 3% 18% 80.0% 44.9% 44.2% 4.3% 20.1% 0.2% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% **2025** 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 38.7% 38.7% 38.4% 38.4% 36.3% 29.2% 86.3% 86.3% 86.2% 86.2% 84.6% 79.6% 30.3% 30.0% 30.0% 28.2% 23.1% 23.1% 0.120 0.293 0.950 0.483 51.5% 61.8% 61.8% 61.6% 61.6% 59.7% 53.6% 55.4% 55.4% 55.2% 55.2% 53.5% 48.1% 27.5% 27.3% 27.3% 25.6% 21.0% 21.0% 1975 32% 2% 21% 3% 4% 18% 79.4% 44.9% 43.4% 4.4% 20.9% 0.2% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% **2026** 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 38.5% 38.5% 38.2% 38.2% 36.0% 29.0% 86.1% 86.1% 86.0% 86.0% 84.4% 79.4% 30.0% 29.8% 29.8% 27.9% 22.9% 22.9% 0.119 0.292 0.963 0.489 51.7% 61.5% 61.5% 61.3% 61.3% 59.4% 53.3% 55.2% 55.2% 55.0% 55.0% 53.3% 47.8% 27.4% 27.1% 27.1% 25.5% 20.8% 20.8% 1976 32% 4% 21% 3% 6% 18% 83.3% 45.4% 42.6% 4.4% 21.7% 0.2% 0.1% 8.1% 77.1% **2027** 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 38.1% 38.1% 37.8% 37.8% 35.7% 28.6% 85.8% 85.8% 85.6% 85.6% 84.1% 79.0% 29.6% 29.4% 29.4% 27.6% 22.5% 22.5% 0.117 0.288 0.959 0.485 51.9% 61.1% 61.1% 60.8% 60.8% 59.0% 52.9% 54.8% 54.8% 54.6% 54.6% 53.0% 47.5% 27.1% 26.8% 26.8% 25.2% 20.5% 20.5% 1977 31% 3% 23% 3% 5% 19% 83.8% 42.1% 41.8% 4.5% 22.4% 0.2% 0.2% 8.1% 77.2% **2028** 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 37.6% 37.6% 37.3% 37.3% 35.2% 28.1% 85.4% 85.4% 85.2% 85.2% 83.7% 78.6% 29.1% 28.9% 28.9% 27.1% 22.0% 22.0% 0.113 0.279 0.941 0.475 52.0% 60.5% 60.5% 60.3% 60.3% 58.4% 52.3% 54.4% 54.4% 54.2% 54.2% 52.5% 47.0% 26.7% 26.4% 26.4% 24.8% 20.1% 20.1% 1978 30% 3% 25% 2% 4% 20% 84.5% 39.9% 41.4% 4.0% 22.0% 0.1% 0.1% 10.5% 78.2% **2029** 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 37.4% 37.4% 37.1% 37.1% 35.0% 27.9% 85.2% 85.2% 85.1% 85.1% 83.5% 78.4% 28.9% 28.7% 28.7% 26.8% 21.8% 21.8% 0.110 0.276 0.938 0.472 52.2% 60.3% 60.3% 60.0% 60.0% 58.2% 52.1% 54.2% 54.2% 54.0% 54.0% 52.3% 46.8% 26.5% 26.3% 26.3% 24.6% 20.0% 20.0% 1979 31% 3% 26% 2% 3% 20% 85.6% 40.3% 41.0% 3.6% 21.6% 0.1% 0.1% 12.9% 79.3% **2030** 18.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 37.2% 37.2% 36.9% 36.9% 34.8% 27.7% 85.1% 85.1% 84.9% 84.9% 83.4% 78.3% 28.7% 28.5% 28.5% 26.7% 21.6% 21.6% 0.108 0.274 0.944 0.474 52.4% 60.0% 60.0% 59.8% 59.8% 57.9% 51.8% 54.0% 54.0% 53.8% 53.8% 52.1% 46.6% 26.4% 26.2% 26.2% 24.5% 19.8% 19.8% 1980 33% 1% 27% 2% 1% 21% 85.6% 41.1% 40.7% 3.1% 21.2% 0.1% 0.1% 15.4% 80.4% **2031** 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 36.9% 36.9% 36.7% 36.7% 34.5% 27.4% 84.9% 84.9% 84.7% 84.7% 83.1% 78.1% 28.4% 28.2% 28.2% 26.4% 21.3% 21.3% 0.109 0.276 0.949 0.477 52.4% 59.7% 59.7% 59.5% 59.5% 57.6% 51.5% 53.8% 53.8% 53.6% 53.6% 51.9% 46.4% 26.2% 26.0% 26.0% 24.3% 19.6% 19.6% 1981 34% 1% 25% 2% 1% 21% 84.5% 42.1% 40.3% 2.6% 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 17.8% 81.5% **2032** 19.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 36.6% 36.6% 36.4% 36.4% 34.2% 27.1% 84.6% 84.6% 84.4% 84.4% 82.9% 77.8% 28.1% 27.9% 27.9% 26.1% 21.0% 21.0% 0.110 0.277 0.954 0.479 52.4% 59.5% 59.5% 59.2% 59.2% 57.4% 51.3% 53.6% 53.6% 53.4% 53.4% 51.7% 46.2% 26.0% 25.8% 25.8% 24.1% 19.4% 19.4% 1982 31% 1% 25% 2% 1% 23% 83.6% 39.9% 39.9% 2.2% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 20.2% 82.6% **2033** 20.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 36.3% 36.3% 36.1% 36.1% 33.9% 26.8% 84.4% 84.4% 84.2% 84.2% 82.6% 77.6% 27.8% 27.6% 27.6% 25.8% 20.7% 20.7% 0.110 0.278 0.958 0.481 52.4% 59.2% 59.2% 59.0% 59.0% 57.1% 51.0% 53.4% 53.4% 53.2% 53.2% 51.5% 46.0% 25.8% 25.5% 25.5% 23.8% 19.1% 19.1% 1983 34% 1% 23% 2% 1% 23% 84.7% 42.4% 40.7% 2.5% 21.5% 0.1% 0.0% 18.3% 83.1% **2034** 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 36.0% 36.0% 35.8% 35.8% 33.6% 26.6% 84.1% 84.1% 83.9% 83.9% 82.4% 77.3% 27.5% 27.3% 27.3% 25.5% 20.4% 20.4% 0.111 0.280 0.963 0.484 52.4% 58.9% 58.9% 58.7% 58.7% 56.8% 50.7% 53.2% 53.2% 53.0% 53.0% 51.3% 45.8% 25.5% 25.3% 25.3% 23.6% 18.9% 18.9% 1984 34% 1% 23% 2% 1% 25% 85.2% 41.6% 41.4% 2.8% 22.8% 0.1% 0.0% 16.4% 83.6% **2035** 22.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 35.8% 35.8% 35.5% 35.5% 33.3% 26.3% 83.9% 83.9% 83.7% 83.7% 82.1% 77.1% 27.2% 27.0% 27.0% 25.2% 20.1% 20.1% 0.111 0.281 0.968 0.486 52.4% 58.6% 58.6% 58.4% 58.4% 56.5% 50.4% 53.0% 53.0% 52.8% 52.8% 51.1% 45.6% 25.3% 25.1% 25.1% 23.4% 18.7% 18.7% 1985 35% 1% 21% 2% 1% 25% 85.6% 43.0% 42.2% 3.2% 24.0% 0.2% 0.0% 14.5% 84.1% **2036** 23.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 35.5% 35.5% 35.2% 35.2% 33.0% 26.0% 83.6% 83.6% 83.4% 83.4% 81.9% 76.8% 26.9% 26.7% 26.7% 24.9% 19.8% 19.8% 0.112 0.283 0.973 0.489 52.4% 58.4% 58.4% 58.1% 58.1% 56.3% 50.2% 52.8% 52.8% 52.6% 52.6% 50.9% 45.4% 25.1% 24.8% 24.8% 23.1% 18.4% 18.4% 1986 38% 1% 19% 2% 2% 23% 86.5% 47.4% 43.0% 3.5% 25.2% 0.3% 0.0% 12.7% 84.6% **2037** 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 35.2% 35.2% 34.9% 34.9% 32.7% 25.7% 83.4% 83.4% 83.2% 83.2% 81.6% 76.6% 26.6% 26.4% 26.4% 24.5% 19.5% 19.5% 0.112 0.284 0.978 0.491 52.4% 58.1% 58.1% 57.9% 57.9% 56.0% 49.9% 52.6% 52.6% 52.4% 52.4% 50.7% 45.2% 24.8% 24.6% 24.6% 22.9% 18.2% 18.2% 1987 44% 1% 17% 2% 2% 21% 87.6% 53.7% 43.7% 3.8% 26.4% 0.3% 0.0% 10.8% 85.0% **2038** 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.6% 1.6% 15.1% 59.0% 0% 1% 1% 12% 40% 40% 34.8% 34.8% 34.6% 34.6% 32.4% 25.4% 83.1% 83.1% 82.9% 82.9% 81.4% 76.3% 26.3% 26.1% 26.1% 24.2% 19.2% 19.2% 0.113 0.285 0.983 0.494 52.4% 57.8% 57.8% 57.6% 57.6% 55.7% 49.6% 52.4% 52.4% 52.2% 52.2% 50.5% 44.9% 24.6% 24.4% 24.4% 22.7% 17.9% 17.9% 1988 47% 1% 15% 2% 3% 20% 88.4% 57.0% 40.8% 2.8% 28.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.9% 87.9% 1989 49% 1% 14% 2% 3% 20% 89.0% 59.3% 37.8% 1.8% 30.0% 0.1% 0.0% 21.0% 90.7% 1990 51% 1% 14% 1% 3% 19% 89.6% 61.0% 34.9% 0.9% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% 93.6% 1991 48% 1% 12% 4% 3% 18% 85.9% 61.8% 48.5% 0.0% 34.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.5% 96.1% 1992 58% 1% 10% 3% 2% 18% 92.3% 66.9% 24.2% 0.0% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0% 39.7% 91.6% 1993 57% 1% 14% 4% 2% 14% 91.7% 66.7% 38.5% 0.7% 45.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 93.1% 1994 58% 1% 10% 3% 1% 18% 91.8% 67.7% 41.1% 3.5% 33.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.9% 91.2% 1995 58% 1% 11% 3% 2% 17% 92.8% 66.8% 51.0% 0.0% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 90.3% 1996 59% 1% 12% 3% 1% 17% 92.6% 67.8% 39.4% 0.0% 30.4% 0.0% 0.0% 20.9% 90.7% 1997 60% 2% 13% 3% 1% 17% 95.0% 66.8% 32.5% 1.2% 48.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 94.5% 1998 60% 1% 13% 2% 1% 16% 92.9% 67.4% 26.5% 3.8% 36.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 91.3% Gas/Electric 1999 57% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.9% 17% 93.6% 65.8% 39.9% 0.2% 36.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 94.4% 42.3% 2000 58% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.9% 16% 93.6% 66.5% 33.9% 1.0% 30.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.2% 89.4% 38.3% 2001 58% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.7% 16% 93.4% 66.9% 25.7% 7.9% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0% 34.4% 91.8% 30.6% 2002 57% 0.5% 13% 4.1% 1.9% 17% 93.5% 65.7% 30.5% 0.0% 32.4% 0.0% 0.0% 19.1% 82.1% 37.2% 2003 60% 0.4% 12% 4.2% 1.5% 16% 93.5% 68.2% 22.8% 15.1% 53.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 91.4% 29.9% 2004 57.4% 0.47% 13.8% 4.1% 1.8% 16.1% 93.6% 65.8% 27.8% 4.86% 34.6% 0.00% 0.00% 24.4% 91.6% 2005 52.3% 0.5% 16.2% 4.1% 1.8% 18.9% 93.8% 59.8% 22.8% 4.9% 37.6% 0.0% 0.0% 26.5% 91.8% 2006 50.9% 0.5% 16.9% 4.1% 1.8% 19.7% 93.9% 58.2% 20.9% 4.9% 38.8% 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 92.0% 2007 54.6% 0.5% 15.3% 4.1% 1.8% 17.8% 94.0% 62.3% 24.8% 4.9% 36.7% 0.0% 0.0% 25.8% 92.2% 2008 54.6% 0.5% 15.3% 4.1% 1.8% 17.9% 94.2% 62.2% 25.0% 4.9% 36.7% 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 92.4% 2009 55.8% 0.5% 14.8% 4.1% 1.8% 17.3% 94.3% 63.5% 26.4% 4.9% 36.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25.4% 92.6% **2010 56.3%**  **0.5% 14.6%**  **4.1% 1.8%**  **17.1% 94.4%**  **64.0% 27.0%**  **4.9% 35.7%**  **0.0% 0.0%**  **25.2% 92.8%**  2011 57.0% 0.5% 14.4% 4.1% 1.8% 16.8% 94.5% 64.7% 27.9% 4.9% 35.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 93.0% 2012 57.2% 0.5% 14.3% 4.1% 1.8% 16.7% 94.7% 64.8% 28.13% 4.9% 35.3% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 93.2% 2013 57.7% 0.5% 14.2% 4.1% 1.8% 16.5% 94.8% 65.3% 28.7% 4.9% 35.1% 0.0% 0.0% 24.7% 93.4% 2014 57.4% 0.5% 14.4% 4.1% 1.8% 16.8% 94.9% 64.8% 28.4% 4.9% 35.4% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 93.6% 2015 57.5% 0.5% 14.4% 4.1% 1.8% 16.8% 95.0% 64.9% 28.6% 4.9% 35.4% 0.0% 0.0% 24.9% 93.8% 2016 57.3% 0.5% 14.5% 4.1% 1.8% 16.9% 95.1% 64.6% 28.5% 4.9% 35.6% 0.0% 0.0% 25.1% 94.0% 2017 56.8% 0.5% 14.8% 4.1% 1.8% 17.2% 95.2% 64.0% 28.1% 4.9% 35.9% 0.0% 0.0% 25.3% 94.2% 2018 57.2% 0.5% 14.6% 4.1% 1.8% 17.1% 95.3% 64.3% 28.6% 4.9% 35.7% 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 94.4% 2019 57.2% 0.5% 14.7% 4.1% 1.8% 17.2% 95.4% 64.2% 28.7% 4.9% 35.8% 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 94.6% **2020 56.8%**  **0.5% 14.9%**  **4.1% 1.8%**  **17.4% 95.5%**  **63.7% 28.4%**  **4.9% 36.1%**  **0.0% 0.0%**  **25.4% 94.8%**  2021 56.8% 0.5% 15.0% 4.1% 1.8% 17.5% 95.6% 63.7% 28.6% 4.9% 36.1% 0.0% 0.0% 25.4% 95.0% 2022 56.3% 0.5% 15.2% 4.1% 1.8% 17.8% 95.7% 63.0% 28.1% 4.9% 36.5% 0.0% 0.0% 25.7% 95.2% 2023 55.8% 0.5% 15.5% 4.1% 1.8% 18.1% 95.8% 62.4% 27.7% 4.9% 36.8% 0.0% 0.0% 26.0% 95.4% 2024 55.5% 0.5% 15.7% 4.1% 1.8% 18.3% 95.9% 62.0% 27.5% 4.9% 37.1% 0.0% 0.0% 26.1% 95.6% 2025 55.4% 0.5% 15.8% 4.1% 1.8% 18.4% 96.0% 61.8% 27.5% 4.9% 37.2% 0.0% 0.0% 26.2% 95.8% 2026 55.2% 0.5% 15.9% 4.1% 1.8% 18.6% 96.1% 61.5% 27.4% 4.9% 37.4% 0.0% 0.0% 26.4% 96.0% 2027 54.8% 0.5% 16.1% 4.1% 1.8% 18.8% 96.2% 61.1% 27.1% 4.9% 37.7% 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 96.2% 2028 54.4% 0.5% 16.4% 4.1% 1.8% 19.1% 96.3% 60.5% 26.7% 4.9% 38.0% 0.0% 0.0% 26.8% 96.4% 2029 54.2% 0.5% 16.5% 4.1% 1.8% 19.3% 96.3% 60.3% 26.5% 4.9% 38.2% 0.0% 0.0% 26.9% 96.6% **2030 54.0%**  **0.5% 16.6%**  **4.1% 1.8%**  **19.4% 96.4%**  **60.0% 26.4%**  **4.9% 38.4%**  **0.0% 0.0%**  **27.1% 96.8%**  2031 53.8% 0.5% 16.7% 4.1% 1.8% 19.5% 96.5% 59.7% 26.2% 4.9% 38.7% 0.0% 0.0% 27.2% 97.0% 2032 53.6% 0.5% 16.9% 4.1% 1.8% 19.7% 96.6% 59.5% 26.0% 4.9% 38.9% 0.0% 0.0% 27.4% 97.2% 2033 53.4% 0.5% 17.0% 4.1% 1.8% 19.8% 96.6% 59.2% 25.8% 4.9% 39.2% 0.0% 0.0% 27.6% 97.4% 2034 53.2% 0.5% 17.1% 4.1% 1.8% 20.0% 96.7% 58.9% 25.5% 4.9% 39.4% 0.0% 0.0% 27.8% 97.6% 2035 53.0% 0.5% 17.2% 4.1% 1.8% 20.1% 96.8% 58.6% 25.3% 4.9% 39.7% 0.0% 0.0% 27.9% 97.8% 2036 52.8% 0.5% 17.4% 4.1% 1.8% 20.3% 96.9% 58.4% 25.1% 4.9% 39.9% 0.0% 0.0% 28.1% 98.0% 2037 52.6% 0.5% 17.5% 4.1% 1.8% 20.4% 96.9% 58.1% 24.8% 4.9% 40.2% 0.0% 0.0% 28.3% 98.2% 2038 52.4% 0.5% 17.6% 4.1% 1.8% 20.6% 97.0% 57.8% 24.6% 4.9% 40.4% 0.0% 0.0% 28.5% 98.4%

**New Housing Market Shares**

**Base Case Market Shares** 46.1% 59%

Base Case Market Shares **Single and Multi-Family Homes Mobile Homes** 

**Single and Multi Family Homes Change in Gas to Electric Heating Price Ratio Relative to 1999**  **National (weighted average) Gas Furnace Share of Gas Furnace + Electric Central Heating**  GAS FURNACE SHARE OF TOTAL NEW HOUSING

**Mobile Homes** Mobile Homes **Housing Starts - Single and Multi-Family Only** Single and Multi Family Homes **Southern Region Only - SF+MF All Regions Excluding South - SF+MF**  **Mobile Homes**

**Gas Furnace Share of Gas Furnace + Electric Central Heating Gas Furnace Share of Gas Furnace + Electric Central Heating**  MODEL

# American Housing Survey Data **Southern Region Only**Weights Vintage Range Vintage % With Gas Gas Elec Gas / ElecRel.l to 1965 

# 1930-1939 1935 69.6% 6.7% 

# 109 1940-1949 1945 71.4% 5.09% 

# 197 1950-1959 1955 70.7% 3.58% 

# 390 1960-1969 1965 61.5% 2.69% 

# 521 102.4 169.1 0.605 1.000 

# 1970-1974 1972 47.2% 2.55% 

# 345 99.9 160.9 0.621 1.025 

# 1975-1978 1976 37.0% 2.36% 

# 245 120.5 176.3 0.684 1.129 

# 1979 1979 29.1% 3.01% 

# 93 137.6 156.6 0.879 1.451 

# 1980 1980 26.6% 4.12% 

# 42 137.8 157.1 0.877 1.449 

# 1981 1981 31.8% 5.10% 

# 39 145.9 167.7 0.870 1.437 

# 1982 1982 28.0% 4.75% 

# 35 167.6 175.1 0.957 1.581 

# 1983 1983 27.0% 4.03% 

# 45 184.2 177.1 1.040 1.718 

# 1984 1984 28.7% 3.88% 

# 55 179.0 179.0 1.000 1.652 

# 1985 1985 25.8% 3.50% 

# 55 168.7 176.9 0.953 1.575 

# 1986 1986 36.6% 4.50% 

# 66 159.6 174.5 0.915 1.511 

# 1987 1987 29.2% 4.28% 

# 47 151.2 166.2 0.910 1.503 

# 1988 1988 26.5% 4.26% 

# 39 147.6 162.4 0.909 1.501 

# 1989 1989 33.4% 4.72% 

# 50 144.7 157.8 0.917 1.514 

# 1990 1990 28.2% 4.94% 

# 33 140.2 152.7 0.918 1.517 

# 1991 1991 31.1% 4.86% 

# 41 134.6 150.6 0.894 1.476 

# 1992 1992 33.3% 5.22% 

# 41 131.3 149.1 0.881 1.455 

# 1993 1993 33.3% 4.84% 

# 47 137.9 147.3 0.936 1.546 

# 1994 1994 39.1% 5.63% 

# 48 135.3 143.5 0.943 1.557 

# 1995 1995 38.1% 6.78% 

# 32 124.6 140.3 0.888 1.467 

# Market Share Model to Determine Elasticities

AHS DATA Fuel Prices

1995 1995 38.1% 6.78% 

# 32 124.6 140.3 0.888 1.467



# American Housing Survey Data **All Regions Excluding South** Weights Vintage % With

Gas % With Gas Gas Elec Gas / ElecRel.l to 1965 

# 1940-1939 1935 93.6% 4.5% 

# 432 1940-1949 1945 93.7% 3.82% 

# 600 1950-1959 1955 94.2% 2.67% 

# 1249 1960-1969 1965 91.4% 2.65% 

# 1188 102.4 169.1 0.605 1.000 

# 1970-1974 1972 85.1% 3.25% 

# 687 99.9 160.9 0.621 1.025 

# 1975-1978 1976 74.0% 3.19% 

# 538 120.5 176.3 0.684 1.129 

# 1979 1979 74.2% 4.63% 

# 257 131.8 159.1 0.828 1.368 

# 1980 1980 74.4% 8.23% 

# 82 142.9 165.9 0.861 1.423 

# 1981 1981 73.1% 8.64% 

# 72 145.7 170.7 0.854 1.410 

# 1982 1982 76.2% 11.96% 

# 41 164.3 177.1 0.927 1.532 

# 1983 1983 74.3% 8.71% 

# 73 186.0 175.0 1.063 1.756 

# 1984 1984 67.1% 7.85% 

# 73 180.5 179.1 1.008 1.665 

# 1985 1985 71.1% 6.59% 

# 116 173.3 180.5 0.960 1.586 

# 1986 1986 75.9% 7.84% 

# 94 161.9 180.1 0.899 1.485 

# AHS DATA Fuel Prices

# 1987 1987 74.6% 6.93% 

# 116 148.9 174.5 0.853 1.410



# 1988 1988 78.4% 7.64% 

# 105 141.6 170.0 0.833 1.376 

# 1989 1989 80.3% 7.31% 

# 121 138.9 168.0 0.827 1.366 

# 1990 1990 80.7% 7.79% 

# 107 131.7 163.6 0.805 1.329 

# 1991 1991 76.4% 7.74% 

# 97 129.5 164.2 0.789 1.303 

# 1992 1992 79.5% 7.71% 

# 106 127.2 162.6 0.782 1.292 

# 1993 1993 78.6% 7.39% 

# 113 129.6 161.2 0.804 1.329 

# 1994 1994 83.0% 8.23% 

# 102 130.1 157.5 0.826 1.364 

# 1995 1995 81.2% 10.12% 

# 64 122.0 158.0 0.772 1.275



# American Housing Survey Data **Mo bile Homes Only** Weights Vintage % With

Gas % With Gas Gas Elec Gas / ElecRel.l to 1965 

# 1930-1939 1935 86.6% 20.8% 

# 17 1940-1949 1945 81.7% 18.2% 

# 20 1950-1959 1955 75.5% 13.9% 

# 29 1960-1969 1965 59.7% 8.5% 

# 49 102.4 169.1 0.605 1.000 

# 1970-1974 1972 49.8% 7.2% 

# 48 99.9 160.9 0.621 1.025 

# 1975-1978 1976 36.7% 7.9% 

# 22 120.5 176.3 0.684 1.129 

# 1979 1979 35.7% 8.6% 

# 17 143.4 170.7 0.840 1.388 

# 1980 1980 35.6% 13.9% 

# 7 150.6 173.8 0.867 1.432 

# 1981 1981 23.0% 10.6% 

# 5 155.7 181.2 0.859 1.419 

# 1982 1982 34.5% 15.2% 

# 5 175.8 187.5 0.937 1.548 

# 1983 1983 27.7% 11.2% 

# 6 198.6 187.6 1.059 1.749 

# 1984 1984 30.5% 11.0% 

# 8 191.8 191.4 1.002 1.655 

# 1985 1985 27.4% 11.8% 

# 5 184.0 191.2 0.962 1.590 

# AHS DATA Fuel Prices

1985 1985 27.4% 11.8% 

# 5 184.0 191.2 0.962 1.590 

# 1986 1986 56.0% 25.2% 

# 5 171.8 190.3 0.903 1.492 

# 1987 1987 44.7% 19.0% 

# 6 158.1 182.9 0.865 1.428 

# 1988 1988 75.0% 40.5% 

# 3 150.9 178.0 0.848 1.400 

# 1989 1989 33.6% 19.6% 

# 3 147.9 174.7 0.847 1.398 

# 1990 1990 36.7% 18.1% 

# 4 140.6 169.7 0.829 1.369 

# 1991 1991 36.8% 21.8% 

# 3 136.6 168.9 0.809 1.336 

# 1992 1992 56.7% 41.4% 

# 2 135.0 167.2 0.808 1.334 

# 1993 1993 70.9% 64.7% 

# 1 139.2 165.6 0.841 1.389 

# 1994 1994 24.6% 27.0% 

# 1 138.3 161.5 0.856 1.415 

# 1995 1995 83.4% 46.4% 

# 3 127.5 160.6 0.794 1.312

# Elasticity Fuel EquipmentConstant X2 

# -0.84 -0.37 61.5% 5.38

Change Rel. 1965 Gas

Furnaces Heat

Pumps Ratio Change Rel. 1965

# Linear X2



## 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 

## 0.000 61.5% 0.00 0.025 0.936 0.890 1.051 

## 0.051 59.0% 21.33 0.129 0.871 0.821 1.061 

## 0.061 53.4% 48.73 0.451 0.853 0.799 1.068 

## 0.068 36.7% 6.40 0.449 0.845 0.787 1.075 

## 0.075 36.7% 5.94 0.437 0.855 0.760 1.125 

## 0.125 36.1% 0.73 0.581 0.870 0.744 1.169 

## 0.169 27.7% 0.00 0.718 0.867 0.735 1.180 

## 0.180 20.4% 2.67 0.652 0.867 0.726 1.194 

## 0.194 23.5% 1.75 0.575 0.863 0.713 1.209 

## 0.209 27.1% 0.14 0.511 0.858 0.701 1.224 

## 0.224 30.1% 2.08 0.503 0.833 0.682 1.220 

## 0.220 30.6% 0.10 0.501 0.826 0.678 1.218 

## 0.218 30.7% 1.00 0.514 0.819 0.672 1.218 

## 0.218 30.1% 0.49 0.517 0.845 0.677 1.248 

## 0.248 29.3% 0.05 0.476 0.822 0.651 1.262 

## 0.262 31.0% 0.00 0.455 0.816 0.631 1.293 

## 0.293 31.5% 0.13 0.546 0.803 0.615 1.304 

## 0.304 26.5% 2.00 0.557 0.783 0.599 1.305 

## 0.305 25.9% 5.48 0.467 0.777 0.598 1.299 

## 0.299 30.7% 1.19 

# Gas Furn. MS Model Equip Prices

0.467 0.777 0.598 1.299 

## 0.299 30.7% 1.19



# Elasticity Fuel EquipmentConstant X2 

# -0.34 -0.13 91.4% 0.35

Change Rel. 1965 Gas

Furnaces Heat

Pumps Ratio Change Rel. 1965

# Linear X2



## 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 

## 0.000 91.4% 0.00 0.025 0.936 0.896 1.045 

## 0.045 90.1% 2.34 0.129 0.871 0.405 2.149 

## 1.149 74.0% 0.00 0.368 0.853 0.806 1.059 

## 0.059 79.3% 1.20 0.423 0.845 0.794 1.065 

## 0.065 77.5% 0.14 0.410 0.855 0.771 1.108 

## 0.108 77.4% 0.25 0.532 0.870 0.759 1.145 

## 0.145 73.2% 0.06 0.756 0.867 0.751 1.154 

## 0.154 66.1% 0.89 0.665 0.867 0.743 1.166 

## 0.166 68.8% 0.04 0.586 0.863 0.732 1.179 

## 0.179 71.1% 0.00 0.485 0.858 0.720 1.191 

## 0.191 74.1% 0.05 

# Equip Prices Gas Furn. MS Model

## 0.410 0.833 0.701 1.188 

## 0.188 76.5% 0.08

0.376 0.826 0.696 1.186 

## 0.186 77.6% 0.01 0.366 0.819 0.690 1.186 

## 0.186 77.9% 0.11 0.329 0.845 0.698 1.211 

## 0.211 78.7% 0.06 0.303 0.822 0.672 1.222 

## 0.222 79.4% 0.15 0.292 0.816 0.654 1.248 

## 0.248 79.4% 0.00 0.329 0.803 0.638 1.257 

## 0.257 78.2% 0.00 0.364 0.783 0.622 1.258 

## 0.258 77.1% 0.51 0.275 0.777 0.620 1.253 

## 0.253 79.9% 0.01



# Elasticity Fuel EquipmentConstant X2



## -1.06 -0.50 59.7% 

# 1.03

Change Rel. 1965 Gas

Furnaces Heat

Pumps Ratio Change Rel. 1965

# Linear X2



## 0.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 

## 0.000 59.7% 0.00 0.025 0.936 0.899 1.041 

## 0.041 56.9% 0.99 0.129 0.871 0.444 1.962 

## 0.962 23.0% 3.02 0.388 0.853 0.810 1.054 

## 0.054 33.6% 0.06 0.432 0.845 0.798 1.059 

## 0.059 30.6% 0.13 0.419 0.855 0.778 1.098 

## 0.098 30.3% 0.47 0.548 0.870 0.768 1.132 

## 0.132 21.1% 0.79 0.749 0.867 0.761 1.140 

## 0.140 8.1% 3.06 0.655 0.867 0.754 1.150 

## 0.150 13.8% 2.29 0.590 0.863 0.743 1.161 

## 0.161 17.6% 0.70 

# Equip Prices Gas Furn. MS Model

0.590 0.863 0.743 1.161 

## 0.161 17.6% 0.70 0.492 0.858 0.731 1.172 

## 0.172 23.4% 1.68 0.428 0.833 0.712 1.170 

## 0.170 27.6% 0.82 0.400 0.826 0.707 1.168 

## 0.168 29.4% 1.27 0.398 0.819 0.701 1.168 

## 0.168 29.5% 0.04 0.369 0.845 0.710 1.190 

## 0.190 30.7% 0.11 0.336 0.822 0.685 1.200 

## 0.200 32.5% 0.04 0.334 0.816 0.667 1.222 

## 0.222 32.0% 0.36 0.389 0.803 0.652 1.231 

## 0.231 28.3% 0.43 0.415 0.783 0.635 1.232 

## 0.232 26.6% 0.01 0.312 0.777 0.633 1.227 

## 0.227 33.2% 1.17

# Best Fit Variables

Sxx Sy

y Sxy  Sfx Sfy Sx Sy 229.715739.7738989.204911179.173237.2372107.2126462.3578196.5133 Ef Ee Bf Be sBf sBe Sig. BfSig. Be -0.83776-0.366280.4413740.183658-1.89807-1.99438

Sxx Sy

y Sxy  Sfx Sfy Sx Sy 328.9145771.7004201.9776213028.5665.376783.7927803.0496950.5999

Bf Be sBf sBe Sig. BfSig. Be -0.341 -0.1270.0392940.060187-8.66734-2.11036

# Sxx Sy y Sxy  Sfx Sfy Sx Sy 20.1564722.026068.05133379.143718.094114.6707543.4764934.13758

Bf Be sBf sBe Sig. BfSig. Be -1.061 -0.4960.2305710.241027-4.6024-2.05748

# Regional Breakdown Single and Multi Family Home Construction (Millions)



# Non-SouthSouth NonSouth South Cold States 

# Cold 40% 0% 1974 0.97 0.76 0.39 

# Warm 60% 100% 1975 0.79 0.53 0.32 1976 0.86 0.51 0.35 1977 1.02 0.64 0.41 1978 1.12 0.75 0.45 Northeast **175406** 1979 1.11 0.76 0.45 New England 46885 1980 0.80 0.70 0.33 Connecticut 9096 1981 0.64 0.62 0.26 Maine 7304 1982 0.47 0.54 0.19 Massachusetts 19805 1983 0.64 0.74 0.26 New Hampshire 5663 1984 0.78 0.87 0.32 Rhode Island 2247 1985 0.89 0.81 0.36 Vermont 2770 1986 0.99 0.76 0.40 Percent Cold **95%** 1987 1.01 0.66 0.41 Middle Atlantic 128521 1988 0.93 0.60 0.38 New Jersey 32566 1989 0.87 0.55 0.35 New York 55253 1990 0.80 0.51 0.32 Pennsylvania 40702 1991 0.65 0.44 0.26 Percent Cold **43%** 1992 0.69 0.46 0.28 Midwest **286679** Total Construction 2006 - Single + Multi Family 

# Regional Housing and Fuel Price

Midwest **286679** 1993 0.68 0.51 0.27 East North Central188091 1994 0.76 0.58 0.31 Illinois 59121 1995 0.73 0.58 0.29 Indiana 28315 1996 0.89 0.52 0.36 Michigan 31010 1997 0.88 0.51 0.35 Ohio 41532 1998 0.94 0.53 0.38 Wisconsin 28113 1999 1.02 0.58 0.41 Percent Cold **63%** 2000 0.99 0.58 0.40 West North Central 98588 2001 0.98 0.59 0.40 Iowa 12995 Kansas 12842 Minnesota 27038 Missouri 27841 Nebraska 8764 North Dakota 3209 South Dakota 5899 Percent Cold **59%** South **922302** South Atlantic 542679

# Delaware 6588

District of Columbia 2105 Florida 205711 Georgia 98843 Maryland 27062 North Carolina 101018 South Carolina 49900 Virginia 46649 West Virginia 4803 Percent Cold **0%** East South Central107622 Alabama 31511 Kentucky 15273 Mississippi 15618 Tennessee 45220 Percent Cold **0%** West South Central272001 Arkansas 12890 Louisiana 26786 Oklahoma 15570 Texas 216755 Percent Cold **0%** West **452900** Mountain 210248 Arizona 65752 Colorado 39314 Idaho 17603 Montana 4814 Nevada 39429 New Mexico 13410 Utah 26822 Wyoming 3104 Percent Cold **44%** Pacific 242652 Alaska 2731 California 155419 Hawaii 7530 Oregon 26800 Washington 50172 Percent Cold **1%**

# Forecast of Single and Multi-Family Home Construction(Millions)

**Source:**AEO 2007

Single and Multi Family Home Construction (Millions) Census Division New

England Middle

Atlantic East North

Central West North

Central South

Atlantic Census RegionNorthEastNorthEast MidWest MidWest South Warm States Percent Cold States **95% 43%**  **63% 59%**  **0%**

1.33 2002 0.045 0.121 0.232 0.144 0.551 1.00 2003 0.044 0.141 0.238 0.161 0.561 1.03 2004 0.043 0.133 0.241 0.171 0.611 1.24 2005 0.053 0.137 0.250 0.147 0.653 1.42 2006 0.053 0.132 0.239 0.143 0.590 1.42 2007 0.054 0.128 0.234 0.143 0.549 1.17 2008 0.053 0.126 0.235 0.144 0.558 1.00 2009 0.052 0.123 0.232 0.143 0.558 0.82 2010 0.052 0.121 0.232 0.144 0.566 1.13 2011 0.051 0.119 0.231 0.144 0.570 1.33 2012 0.050 0.115 0.223 0.140 0.559 1.34 2013 0.048 0.112 0.218 0.137 0.555 1.35 2014 0.048 0.110 0.215 0.136 0.558 1.26 2015 0.048 0.109 0.215 0.137 0.568 1.15 2016 0.048 0.108 0.213 0.137 0.575 1.07 2017 0.047 0.105 0.209 0.134 0.575 0.98 2018 0.046 0.103 0.205 0.133 0.578 0.82 2019 0.045 0.100 0.201 0.131 0.578 0.87 2020 0.044 0.097 0.197 0.129 0.581 0.92 2021 0.042 0.093 0.191 0.126 0.578 1.03 2022 0.041 0.090 0.185 0.123 0.573 1.01 2023 0.039 0.087 0.180 0.120 0.569 1.05 2024 0.038 0.085 0.176 0.118 0.571 1.04 2025 0.037 0.083 0.175 0.118 0.579 1.09 2026 0.037 0.082 0.174 0.118 0.586 1.19 2027 0.036 0.081 0.172 0.116 0.583 1.17 2028 0.035 0.078 0.167 0.113 0.571 1.17 2029 0.034 0.076 0.165 0.111 0.569 2030 0.033 0.075 0.163 0.111 0.572 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038

# East South

Central West South

Central Mountain Pacific

South South West West Total Cold StatesWarm States

**0% 0%**  **44% 1%** 

0.105 0.231 0.205 0.245 1.878 0.417 1.462 0.113 0.235 0.201 0.290 1.985 0.438 1.546 0.115 0.240 0.222 0.304 2.080 0.450 1.630 0.127 0.291 0.243 0.319 2.220 0.463 1.757 0.115 0.258 0.211 0.286 2.028 0.438 1.591 0.110 0.238 0.189 0.263 1.907 0.423 1.484 0.114 0.243 0.191 0.265 1.929 0.423 1.505 0.115 0.244 0.192 0.264 1.922 0.419 1.503 0.116 0.246 0.195 0.267 1.940 0.421 1.519 0.116 0.247 0.197 0.269 1.945 0.419 1.526 0.113 0.242 0.194 0.264 1.900 0.407 1.493 0.112 0.241 0.193 0.263 1.878 0.399 1.479 0.112 0.242 0.195 0.265 1.880 0.396 1.484 0.113 0.247 0.199 0.270 1.906 0.398 1.508 0.114 0.250 0.203 0.273 1.920 0.398 1.523 0.113 0.251 0.203 0.274 1.911 0.392 1.519 0.113 0.253 0.204 0.275 1.909 0.387 1.522 0.112 0.254 0.205 0.275 1.900 0.381 1.519 0.112 0.255 0.206 0.275 1.897 0.376 1.521 0.111 0.255 0.206 0.273 1.875 0.367 1.508 0.109 0.254 0.204 0.271 1.851 0.358 1.493 0.108 0.254 0.203 0.270 1.829 0.350 1.479 0.108 0.257 0.204 0.271 1.829 0.345 1.483 0.109 0.262 0.208 0.275 1.846 0.344 1.502 0.110 0.267 0.210 0.278 1.863 0.344 1.519 0.109 0.267 0.209 0.276 1.849 0.340 1.509 0.107 0.263 0.205 0.270 1.808 0.330 1.478 0.106 0.264 0.204 0.268 1.797 0.326 1.470 0.106 0.267 0.205 0.269 1.801 0.325 1.477 1.810 0.326 1.484 1.819 0.328 1.491 1.828 0.329 1.499 1.837 0.331 1.506 1.847 0.333 1.514 1.856 0.334 1.521 1.865 0.336 1.529 1.874 0.338 1.537

# Regional Fuel Prices Source AEO 2007- Forecast by Census Division

Residential $/MMBtu Scaling Factor Residential $/MMBtu United States North South United States North South United States North

200411.65 11.22 12.59 1.00 0.96 1.08 28.02 29.84 200513.34 12.76 14.61 1.00 0.96 1.10 28.42 30.26 200613.91 13.68 14.42 1.00 0.98 1.04 28.08 28.90 200712.99 12.79 13.41 1.00 0.98 1.03 27.95 28.84 200812.91 12.70 13.36 1.00 0.98 1.04 27.81 28.62 200912.42 12.21 12.87 1.00 0.98 1.04 27.59 28.34 201012.14 11.92 12.61 1.00 0.98 1.04 27.32 27.94 201111.74 11.54 12.17 1.00 0.98 1.04 26.92 27.52 201211.59 11.40 12.01 1.00 0.98 1.04 26.71 27.44 201311.41 11.19 11.87 1.00 0.98 1.04 26.63 27.45 201411.45 11.23 11.92 1.00 0.98 1.04 26.49 27.34 201511.40 11.18 11.86 1.00 0.98 1.04 26.48 27.38 201611.49 11.27 11.95 1.00 0.98 1.04 26.57 27.50 201711.72 11.49 12.20 1.00 0.98 1.04 26.79 27.75 201811.65 11.39 12.21 1.00 0.98 1.05 26.92 27.89 201911.61 11.32 12.23 1.00 0.97 1.05 26.83 27.77 202011.71 11.42 12.30 1.00 0.98 1.05 26.84 27.80 202111.70 11.42 12.30 1.00 0.98 1.05 26.91 27.90 202211.84 11.55 12.44 1.00 0.98 1.05 26.91 27.91 **Natural Gas / LPG**

202311.99 11.71 12.58 1.00 0.98 1.05 26.96 27.99 202412.12 11.82 12.74 1.00 0.98 1.05 27.06 28.10 202512.14 11.85 12.75 1.00 0.98 1.05 27.11 28.15 202612.18 11.89 12.80 1.00 0.98 1.05 27.07 28.11 202712.28 11.98 12.90 1.00 0.98 1.05 27.07 28.09 202812.42 12.12 13.04 1.00 0.98 1.05 27.12 28.13 202912.53 12.24 13.14 1.00 0.98 1.05 27.25 28.29 203012.59 12.29 13.18 1.00 0.98 1.05 27.27 28.32 2031 1.00 0.98 1.05 2032 1.00 0.98 1.05 2033 1.00 0.98 1.05 2034 1.00 0.98 1.05 2035 1.00 0.98 1.05 2036 1.00 0.98 1.05 2037 1.00 0.98 1.05 2038 1.00 0.98 1.05 2039 1.00 0.98 1.05 2040 1.00 0.98 1.05 2041 1.00 0.98 1.05

# 2042 1.00 0.98 1.05

2043 1.00 0.98 1.05 2044 1.00 0.98 1.05 2045 1.00 0.98 1.05 2046 1.00 0.98 1.05 2047 1.00 0.98 1.05 2048 1.00 0.98 1.05 2049 1.00 0.98 1.05 2050 1.00 0.98 1.05 2051 1.00 0.98 1.05 2052 1.00 0.98 1.05 2053 1.00 0.98 1.05 2054 1.00 0.98 1.05 2055 1.00 0.98 1.05 2056 1.00 0.98 1.05 2057 1.00 0.98 1.05 2058 1.00 0.98 1.05 2059 1.00 0.98 1.05 2060 1.00 0.98 1.05 2061 1.00 0.98 1.05 2062 1.00 0.98 1.05 2063 1.00 0.98 1.05 2064 1.00 0.98 1.05 2065 1.00 0.98 1.05 2066 1.00 0.98 1.05

# Scaling Factor

South United

States North South

24.04 1.00 1.07 0.86 24.44 1.00 1.06 0.86 26.29 1.00 1.03 0.94 26.02 1.00 1.03 0.93 26.06 1.00 1.03 0.94 25.99 1.00 1.03 0.94 25.99 1.00 1.02 0.95 25.63 1.00 1.02 0.95 25.14 1.00 1.03 0.94 24.87 1.00 1.03 0.93 24.69 1.00 1.03 0.93 24.57 1.00 1.03 0.93 24.61 1.00 1.04 0.93 24.76 1.00 1.04 0.92 24.90 1.00 1.04 0.92 24.85 1.00 1.04 0.93 24.83 1.00 1.04 0.93 24.83 1.00 1.04 0.92 24.83 1.00 1.04 0.92 **Electricity**

24.84 1.00 1.04 0.92 24.90 1.00 1.04 0.92 24.96 1.00 1.04 0.92 24.93 1.00 1.04 0.92 24.99 1.00 1.04 0.92 25.06 1.00 1.04 0.92 25.14 1.00 1.04 0.92 25.15 1.00 1.04 0.92

1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92

# 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92 1.00 1.04 0.92

# Source:U.S. Census - Characteristics of New Housing C25 http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/sftotalheatingfuel.pdf http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/mfuhfuelall.pdf 

# Millions of new homes

sf mf tot sf mf tot sf 1973 0.56 0.50 0.13 1974 0.39 0.28 0.66 0.46 0.47 0.93 0.09 1975 0.35 0.15 0.49 0.43 0.26 0.69 0.08 1976 0.41 0.11 0.52 0.50 0.20 0.70 0.11 1977 0.48 0.12 0.59 0.64 0.26 0.90 0.12 1978 0.51 0.13 0.64 0.71 0.34 1.05 0.11 1979 0.51 0.15 0.66 0.66 0.39 1.05 0.09 1980 0.39 0.17 0.56 0.48 0.36 0.84 0.03 1981 0.34 0.14 0.48 0.41 0.29 0.70 0.02 1982 0.25 0.10 0.36 0.32 0.26 0.57 0.02 1983 0.40 0.13 0.53 0.45 0.33 0.78 0.02 1984 0.46 0.17 0.63 0.49 0.45 0.94 0.02 1985 0.47 0.20 0.66 0.53 0.43 0.95 0.04 1986 0.53 0.22 0.75 0.50 0.40 0.90 0.05 1987 0.58 0.22 0.81 0.45 0.31 0.75 0.06 1988 0.59 0.20 0.78 0.40 0.24 0.64 0.06 1989 0.60 0.17 0.76 0.35 0.22 0.57 0.05 1990 0.57 0.15 0.72 0.32 0.18 0.50 0.05 1991 0.51 0.10 0.61 0.27 0.14 0.41 0.04 1992 0.62 0.10 0.72 0.28 0.09 0.37 0.04 1993 0.68 0.08 0.76 0.30 0.07 0.37 0.03 1994 0.77 0.10 0.87 0.33 0.09 0.42 0.04 1995 0.71 0.12 0.83 0.31 0.13 0.43 0.04 1996 0.78 0.14 0.92 0.30 0.15 0.45 0.04 1997 0.77 0.13 0.90 0.30 0.16 0.45 0.04 

# Market Shares in New**Homes, Historic Data**

Gas Heated Homes Electric Heated Homes Oil Heated Homes

1997 0.77 0.13 0.90 0.30 0.16 0.45 0.04 1998 0.81 0.14 0.95 0.31 0.17 0.48 0.03 1999 0.88 0.14 1.03 0.34 0.19 0.53 0.04 2000 0.87 0.15 1.02 0.33 0.18 0.51 0.04 2001 0.88 0.15 1.02 0.34 0.17 0.50 0.04 2002 0.91 0.15 1.05 0.37 0.17 0.55 0.04 2003 0.97 0.15 1.12 0.38 0.14 0.52 0.03

**Source: A merican Housing Survey 2003 Census Data: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/ahs.html**  **Single- and Multi-Family Homes (Mobile Homes Excluded)** Sumof SumOfWEIGHT

Fuel Equipment Electricity Fuel Oil BUILT Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts Heat PumpOther Steamor Hot Water with Radiators Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Other 1919 259769 123191 400460 64003 711558 79063 1920 185356 66578 253478 51611 212452 32344 1930 302903 147895 373187 31164 277368 22490 1940 438213 243207 516318 44350 389557 18021 1950 853132 617798 745253 50624 663631 41878 1960 16273681079937 1241538 103773 490692 29624 1970 17854431032165 1073711 54786 253925 9934 1975 20919381794201 1291231 68656 257207 14390 1980 17551201368684 520271 53658 96023 2456 1985 14951591785459 661499 27449 109266 10565

# 1990 174118 242776 62131 5501 12546 653 1991 147497 209440 80797 4800 9305 1992 118058 203887 37761 354 10478 1993 296818 300731 61882 3068 23573 908 1994 133457 249090 45037 399 16428 4138 1995 172908 258721 60720 1504 23522 1996 192820 273404 56197 15173 1485 1997 230263 294477 40160 2351 25141 1998 224934 262126 61558 1840 14990 749 1999 257773 330733 55207 8273 9962 442 2000 259602 322278 77762 2752 11283 3904 2001 368214 352350 37573 7723 16383 1318 2002 290227 329848 52257 10239 8819 2003 107432 163737 14181 11062 2598 Grand Total1376852212052716 7820168 5988793670344 276958

Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Heat PumpOther Steamor Hot Water with Radiators Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Other 1999-2003 12832481498947 236980 28987 57509 8263

18.0% 21.1% 3.3% 0.4% 0.8% 0.1%

Equipment Fractions FROM AHS 2003

GF Other GB EF HP Other 1970 81.1% 9.7% 9.2% 45.2% 26.2% 28.6% 1971 81.8% 9.3% 8.9% 44.2% 27.8% 28.1% 1972 82.5% 9.0% 8.5% 43.1% 29.4% 27.5% 1973 83.1% 8.7% 8.2% 42.0% 31.0% 27.0% 1974 83.8% 8.3% 7.9% 41.0% 32.6% 26.5% 1975 84.5% 8.0% 7.6% 39.9% 34.2% 25.9% Gas Electric

1975 84.5% 8.0% 7.6% 39.9% 34.2% 25.9% 1976 85.4% 7.3% 7.3% 41.4% 34.8% 23.8% 1977 86.3% 6.7% 7.1% 42.9% 35.3% 21.8% 1978 87.1% 6.0% 6.8% 44.4% 35.9% 19.7% 1979 88.0% 5.4% 6.6% 45.9% 36.5% 17.6% 1980 88.9% 4.7% 6.3% 47.5% 37.0% 15.5% 1981 89.0% 4.7% 6.2% 45.5% 38.6% 15.9% 1982 89.2% 4.7% 6.2% 43.5% 40.2% 16.3% 1983 89.3% 4.7% 6.1% 41.6% 41.8% 16.6% 1984 89.4% 4.7% 6.0% 39.6% 43.4% 17.0% 1985 89.5% 4.7% 5.9% 37.7% 45.0% 17.4% 1986 90.2% 4.6% 5.2% 37.3% 46.0% 16.7% 1987 90.9% 4.5% 4.6% 37.0% 47.0% 16.0% 1988 91.6% 4.5% 3.9% 36.6% 48.1% 15.3% 1989 92.3% 4.4% 3.3% 36.3% 49.1% 14.6% 1990 93.0% 4.4% 2.6% 35.9% 50.1% 14.0% 1991 87.0% 6.2% 6.8% 33.3% 47.3% 19.3% 1992 92.1% 3.1% 4.7% 32.8% 56.6% 10.6% 1993 88.4% 5.1% 6.5% 44.8% 45.4% 9.8% 1994 90.2% 5.0% 4.8% 31.2% 58.2% 10.6% 1995 91.9% 2.6% 5.5% 35.0% 52.4% 12.6% 1996 91.6% 4.5% 3.9% 36.9% 52.3% 10.8% 1997 93.3% 2.7% 4.0% 40.6% 51.9% 7.5%

# 1998 92.8% 3.9% 3.3% 40.9% 47.6% 11.5% 1999 89.5% 4.1% 6.4% 39.5% 50.7% 9.7% 2000 92.2% 3.6% 4.2% 39.2% 48.7% 12.2% 2001 95.0% 1.9% 3.1% 48.1% 46.0% 5.9% 2002 92.5% 3.6% 3.9% 42.5% 48.3% 9.2% 2003 94.8% 1.2% 4.0% 37.6% 57.4% 5.0%

Source: American Housing Survey 2003 Census Data: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/ahs.html **Mo bile Homes Only**  Sumof SumOfWEIGHT

Fuel Equipment Electricity Fuel Oil BUILT Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts Heat PumpOther Steamor Hot Water with Radiators Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Other 1930 13324 2395 4466 1940 2358 12438 2105 1950 20210 7487 13872 6153 1960 154457 44445 40744 35758 7205 1970 253297 110837 59891 57805 2272 1975 278730 100804 70343 1402 55905 1980 199885 198526 53935 21373 1985 231886 94712 28473 33533 4941 1990 69410 56989 2238 1871 1991 58714 23366 3856 1992 37063 53180 3461 1993 132573 24571 1931 2672 1994 90401 34556 9360 1995 86929 20693 4818 5121 1996 116143 79878 20893 1997 189765 50589 3288 4578 1998 117670 80098 7258 12428 1999 117488 55356 7375 659 2000 105542 84563 18881 3624 2001 46632 67208 3016 15496 2002 42987 25406 14445 2003 17330 4905 Grand Total 23827921213261 368158 4863 271951 22212

Fuel Equipment 0 0 0 0 1999-2003 329978 232533 43717 0 24684 0

32.1% 22.6% 4.3% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0%

# U.S. Census - Characteristics of New Housing C25 http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/sftotalheatingfuel.pdf http://www.census.gov/const/C25Ann/mfuhfuelall.pdf

mf tot sf mf tot Gas Elec Oil GF 1.197 0.903 2.100 0.01 0.09 0.940 0.788 1.728 38% 54% 5% 32% 0.00 0.08 0.875 0.442 1.317 37% 52% 6% 32% 0.02 0.13 1.034 0.343 1.377 38% 51% 10% 32% 0.02 0.14 1.258 0.399 1.657 36% 54% 8% 31% 0.02 0.13 1.369 0.498 1.867 34% 56% 7% 30% 0.03 0.11 1.301 0.570 1.871 35% 56% 6% 31% 0.01 0.04 0.957 0.545 1.502 37% 56% 3% 33% 0.01 0.02 0.819 0.447 1.266 38% 55% 2% 34% 0.01 0.03 0.632 0.374 1.006 35% 57% 3% 31% 0.00 0.03 0.924 0.467 1.391 38% 56% 2% 34% 0.01 0.03 1.025 0.627 1.652 38% 57% 2% 34% 0.00 0.04 1.072 0.631 1.703 39% 56% 2% 35% 0.01 0.06 1.120 0.636 1.756 43% 51% 3% 38% 0.01 0.06 1.123 0.546 1.669 48% 45% 4% 44% 0.00 0.06 1.085 0.445 1.530 51% 42% 4% 47% 0.01 0.06 1.026 0.397 1.423 54% 40% 4% 49% 0.00 0.05 0.966 0.342 1.308 55% 38% 4% 51% 0.00 0.04 0.838 0.253 1.091 56% 37% 4% 48% 0.00 0.04 0.964 0.194 1.158 63% 32% 3% 58% 0.00 0.03 1.039 0.153 1.192 64% 31% 3% 57% 0.00 0.04 1.160 0.187 1.347 65% 31% 3% 58% 0.00 0.04 1.066 0.247 1.313 63% 33% 3% 58% 0.00 0.04 1.129 0.284 1.413 65% 32% 3% 59% 0.00 0.04 1.116 0.284 1.400 64% 32% 3% 60% Oil Heated Homes Total Homes Fuel Type Market Shares

0.00 0.04 1.116 0.284 1.400 64% 32% 3% 60% 0.00 0.04 1.160 0.314 1.474 64% 33% 3% 60% 0.00 0.04 1.270 0.334 1.604 64% 33% 2% 57% 0.00 0.04 1.242 0.332 1.574 65% 32% 2% 58% 0.00 0.04 1.256 0.315 1.571 65% 32% 2% 58% 0.00 0.04 1.325 0.323 1.648 64% 33% 2% 57% 0.00 0.03 1.386 0.292 1.678 67% 31% 2% 60%

**Source: A merican Housing Survey 2003 Census Data: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/ahs.html** 

Gas Other Grand Total Steamor Hot Water with Radiators

Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Other Steamor Hot Water with Radiators Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Heat PumpOther Steamor Hot Water with Radiators 13095853730570 7396791612966 130848 7885 417945 395019627022 6051752284494 596089 987958 32822 131853 301395470349 6016442485771 921908 789333 35576 278853 127786280871 65532935386481247745 634333 42788 304461 171208090092 92242666538951448352 836684 53170 2296 367079 3024213286460 72231669884061029146 943677 58249 364161 1879014697678 2990424057814 484193 459830 51946 1521 239786 233039827399 4025384071699 384539 364522 55518 264561 2048011081479 1094382231981 118691 158814 29495 147473 100826602187 1616863205185 166600 210823 41223 123902 23758001190

# 32054 521548 24556 14568 5224 33015 1128691

19946 482126 34452 37879 13532 11894 1051669 17981 463900 15656 23898 9691 901663 39477 912248 52194 67132 5800 24220 42851792336 20313 679158 37638 35974 16183 1237816 34996 705798 19765 42048 5141 13481 19791340582 20188 763445 37304 32696 2863 17159 1412732 17889 741735 21357 31921 6267 14044 36411429245 19320 769541 32694 27434 6427 15717 1437329 38070 760963 34752 54154 3629 10515 38191568293 32990 798620 30795 36750 5333 18270 15171601857 14522 852235 16755 27789 8819 9593 1713274 6349 801965 31012 34185 4795 11353 23771583426 1489 332514 4149 14127 2558 653846 61047624883426175300207479494 599464 117012847768 222429111817485

Steamor Hot Water with Radiators

Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Other Steamor Hot Water with Radiators Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Heat PumpOther Steamor Hot Water with Radiators 0 934193546297 117463 167005 22575 0 52290 77137120696 1.3% 49.8% 1.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.7% 0.1% 100%

OF Other OB 45.1% 1.8% 53.1% 43.7% 1.8% 54.4% 42.3% 1.9% 55.8% 40.9% 2.0% 57.1% 39.5% 2.1% 58.4% 38.2% 2.1% 59.7%

Oil

39.8% 1.9% 58.3% 41.4% 1.8% 56.9% 43.0% 1.6% 55.5% 44.6% 1.4% 54.1% 46.2% 1.2% 52.6% 44.7% 1.7% 53.6% 43.2% 2.2% 54.6% 41.8% 2.7% 55.5% 40.3% 3.2% 56.5% 38.8% 3.8% 57.4% 36.6% 3.3% 60.1% 34.4% 2.8% 62.8% 32.2% 2.4% 65.5% 29.9% 1.9% 68.2% 27.7% 1.4% 70.8% 31.8% 0.0% 68.2% 36.8% 0.0% 63.2% 36.9% 1.4% 61.7% 40.2% 10.1% 49.7% 40.2% 0.0% 59.8% 41.2% 4.0% 54.8% 58.4% 0.0% 41.6%

# 42.8% 2.1% 55.1%

20.6% 0.9% 78.5% 23.4% 8.1% 68.5% 50.8% 4.1% 45.1% 58.1% 0.0% 41.9% 73.0% 17.2% 9.8%

Source: American Housing Survey 2003 Census Data: http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/ahs.html

Gas Other Grand Total Steamor Hot Water with Radiators

Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Other Steamor Hot Water with Radiators Forced Warm Air Furnace with Ducts

Other Steamor Hot Water with Radiators 31415 4631 2794 59025 5344 6773 3411 32427 46439 15970 8291 5542 123965 370054 33328 27074 73115 786178 1225 625180 95525 3765 50493 103085 22431365618 1888 519033 82911 2257 56223 72975 1242471

392956 42320 33599 41332 983927 383741 48310 2774 33591 15945 877907 76155 3653 2475 5611 218402 83728 2954 172618 32440 7740 133883 112087 13195 4162 291192 110150 2918 15857 4914 268156 139362 16594 273517 150594 7068 4456 3158 382189 128121 13906 4535 394783 86060 3500 10798 6573 324384 126803 2833 7642 318156 118067 11592 3283 3237 348790 50180 3233 9706 195470 40533 3389 5949 132708 7405 2801 32441 31133635848 392522 8796 284710 367738 22438958205

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 342989 21015 0 12064 20585 01027565 0 0.0% 33.4% 2.0% 0.0% 1.2% 2.0% 0.0% 100.0% 0.0%

# GB Other EF HP Other OF Other

3.0% 3.2% 22% 18% 14% 2% 0% 2.8% 3.0% 21% 18% 14% 2% 0% 2.8% 2.8% 21% 18% 12% 4% 0% 2.5% 2.4% 23% 19% 12% 3% 0% 2.3% 2.1% 25% 20% 11% 3% 0% 2.3% 1.9% 26% 20% 10% 3% 0% 2.4% 1.8% 27% 21% 9% 1% 0% 2.4% 1.8% 25% 21% 9% 1% 0% 2.2% 1.7% 25% 23% 9% 1% 0% 2.3% 1.8% 23% 23% 9% 1% 0% 2.3% 1.8% 23% 25% 10% 1% 0% 2.3% 1.8% 21% 25% 10% 1% 0% 2.2% 2.0% 19% 23% 9% 1% 0% 2.2% 2.2% 17% 21% 7% 1% 0% 2.0% 2.3% 15% 20% 6% 1% 0% 1.7% 2.4% 14% 20% 6% 1% 0% 1.4% 2.4% 14% 19% 5% 1% 0% 3.8% 3.5% 12% 18% 7% 1% 0% 3.0% 1.9% 10% 18% 3% 1% 0% 4.2% 3.2% 14% 14% 3% 1% 0% 3.1% 3.2% 10% 18% 3% 1% 0% 3.4% 1.6% 11% 17% 4% 1% 0% 2.5% 2.9% 12% 17% 3% 1% 0% 2.6% 1.7% 13% 17% 2% 2% 0% Gas Equipment MS Elec Equipment MS Oil Equip MS

**Equipment Market Shares C25 Fuel Shares + A HS Equipment Shares** 

2.6% 1.7% 13% 17% 2% 2% 0% 2.1% 2.5% 13% 16% 4% 1% 0% 4.1% 2.6% 13% 17% 3% 0.5% 0% 4.1% 2.6% 13% 16% 3% 0.5% 0% 4.1% 2.7% 13% 16% 3% 0.5% 0% 4.1% 2.6% 13% 17% 3% 0.5% 0% 4.2% 2.7% 12% 16% 3% 0.4% 0%

HEAT PUMP Percentage of Electric Heat Southern Region Grand Total Non-South Steamor Hot Water with Radiators Mobile Homes American Housing Survey **Southern Region Only** NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS Sumof SumOfweight

HeatingEquipment

FuelType Central Warm Air Furnace YearRange Electricity Gas 1919 73.0% 8.4% 1919 or Earlier 4814857 29110696 1925 80.0% 10.5% 1920-1929 2650487 23142800 1935 69.6% 6.7% 1930-1939 8942026 42079190 1945 71.4% 5.1% 1940-1949 16398841 76014261 

# Data from American Housing Survey 1995

# 1955 70.7% 3.6% 1950-1959 22426884 152654251 1965 61.5% 2.7% 1960-1969 53108356 194834437 1972 47.2% 2.5% 1970-1974 75036329 116997856 1976 37.0% 2.4% 1975-1978 62247548 76020505 1979 29.1% 3.0% 1979 29114029 28684679 1980 26.6% 4.1% 1980 14253404 12981374 1981 31.8% 5.1% 1981 13873327 14431003 1982 28.0% 4.7% 1982 14888368 12669102 1983 27.0% 4.0% 1983 20354442 17171318 1984 28.7% 3.9% 1984 28785663 21978005 1985 25.8% 3.5% 1985 21435004 18005713 1986 36.6% 4.5% 1986 18048218 23828033 1987 29.2% 4.3% 1987 14013133 15005749 1988 26.5% 4.3% 1988 8366946 11078661 1989 33.4% 4.7% 1989 9824401 15177627 1990 28.2% 4.9% 1990 12119333 12353740 1991 31.1% 4.9% 1991 12163326 15966156 1992 33.3% 5.2% 1992 9082050 16179857 1993 33.3% 4.8% 1993 9187177 18028222 1994 39.1% 5.6% 1994 9026177 24440902 1995 38.1% 6.8% 1995 6206441 13040686 Grand Total 4963667671001874823

American Housing Survey **All Regions Excluding South** NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS Sumof SumOfweight

HeatingEquipment

FuelType of SumOfweight

HeatingEquipm Central Warm Air Furnace YearRange Electricity Gas 1919 95.0% 3.6% 1919 or Earlier 8850844 285388558 1925 93.9% 4.6% 1920-1929 5622559 155384388 1935 93.6% 4.5% 1930-1939 7342621 161003477 1945 93.7% 3.8% 1940-1949 8696200 212975223 1955 94.2% 2.7% 1950-1959 17829862 437160542 1965 91.4% 2.7% 1960-1969 26227355 436629016 1972 85.1% 3.2% 1970-1974 29028060 256501773 1976 74.0% 3.2% 1975-1978 37561490 188743082 1979 74.2% 4.6% 1979 11177073 79125158 1980 74.4% 8.2% 1980 5213990 33024506 1981 73.1% 8.6% 1981 6506581 31232990 1982 76.2% 12.0% 1982 1616200 18513846 1983 74.3% 8.7% 1983 4402775 31140659 1984 67.1% 7.8% 1984 5149783 29256262 1985 71.1% 6.6% 1985 7931137 41151325 1986 75.9% 7.8% 1986 4796494 36098454 1987 74.6% 6.9% 1987 6190648 42455699 1988 78.4% 7.6% 1988 5862450 40532483 1989 80.3% 7.3% 1989 4407332 44944251 1990 80.7% 7.8% 1990 5756836 45834702

# 1991 76.4% 7.7% 1991 6749177 42996828 1992 79.5% 7.7% 1992 6161518 48534433 1993 78.6% 7.4% 1993 5461957 49605439 1994 83.0% 8.2% 1994 4019324 50337757 1995 81.2% 10.1% 1995 2892155 30066802 Grand Total 2354544212828637653

American Housing Survey **Manufactured Housing Only NUMBER OF HOUSEHOLDS**  Sumof SumOfweight

HeatingEquipment

FuelType Central Warm Air Furnace YearRange Electricity Gas 1919 88.6% 13.9% 1919 or Earlier 1263749 13501232 1925 92.1% 19.8% 1920-1929 422545 7126858 1935 86.6% 20.8% 1930-1939 884253 6222617 1945 81.7% 18.2% 1940-1949 1227945 6875645 1955 75.5% 13.9% 1950-1959 1611108 10073974 1965 59.7% 8.5% 1960-1969 7085655 15256035 1972 49.8% 7.2% 1970-1974 10490983 15363270 1976 36.7% 7.9% 1975-1978 5931318 6362903 1979 35.7% 8.6% 1979 3815124 3311724 1980 35.6% 13.9% 1980 2284158 1947272 1981 23.0% 10.6% 1981 2725153 1211222 1982 34.5% 15.2% 1982 2044804 1731998 1983 27.7% 11.2% 1983 2781099 1811886 1984 30.5% 11.0% 1984 2334592 2590182 1985 27.4% 11.8% 1985 2964118 1456966 1986 56.0% 25.2% 1986 766325 1510206 1510206 1987 44.7% 19.0% 1987 297816 1753176 1988 75.0% 40.5% 1988 382877 1149240 1989 33.6% 19.6% 1989 742864 724955 1990 36.7% 18.1% 1990 964601 1018180 1991 36.8% 21.8% 1991 1568867 1068603 1992 56.7% 41.4% 1992 672346 1993 70.9% 64.7% 1993 661663 1994 24.6% 27.0% 1994 201664 270463 1995 83.4% 46.4% 1995 1513871 Grand Total 52791618 105186487

South Non-South MH South Non-South 1965 38.5% 8.6% 40.3% 56.5% 36.1% 1972 52.8% 14.9% 50.2% 42.6% 35.2% 1976 63.0% 26.0% 63.3% 52.0% 43.4% 1979 70.9% 25.8% 64.3% 58.4% 59.4% 1980 73.4% 25.6% 64.4% 60.1% 54.1% 1981 68.2% 26.9% 77.0% 55.2% 43.4% 1982 72.0% 23.8% 65.5% 54.3% 72.1% 1983 73.0% 25.7% 72.3% 56.1% 59.1% 1984 71.3% 32.9% 69.5% 47.4% 64.0% Total Electric 

# % heat pump

# 1985 74.2% 28.9% 72.6% 58.5% 52.6% 1986 63.4% 24.1% 44.0% 56.3% 58.2% 1987 70.8% 25.4% 55.3% 61.4% 57.2% 1988 73.5% 21.6% 25.0% 72.8% 47.5% 1989 66.6% 19.7% 66.4% 67.6% 60.1% 1990 71.8% 19.3% 63.3% 61.5% 47.5% 1991 68.9% 23.6% 63.2% 65.6% 49.3% 1992 66.7% 20.5% 43.3% 71.9% 50.9% 1993 66.7% 21.4% 29.1% 74.5% 59.6% 1994 60.9% 17.0% 75.4% 76.3% 61.1% 1995 61.9% 18.8% 16.6% 70.8% 58.6%

# OB GAS ELEC Other GF EF HP

3% 25% 71.7% 4% 21% 29% 23% 4% 26% 69.9% 5% 22% 28% 24% 6% 27% 65.9% 7% 23% 27% 23% 5% 24% 70.3% 5% 21% 30% 25% 4% 23% 73.6% 4% 20% 33% 26% 3% 22% 74.0% 4% 20% 34% 27% 1% 25% 72.7% 3% 22% 35% 27% 1% 26% 71.5% 3% 23% 33% 28% 1% 25% 72.6% 3% 22% 32% 29% 1% 26% 71.8% 2% 23% 30% 30% 1% 25% 73.6% 1% 22% 29% 32% 1% 22% 76.3% 1% 20% 29% 34% 2% 24% 73.5% 2% 22% 27% 34% 2% 28% 70.7% 2% 25% 26% 33% 3% 31% 67.2% 2% 28% 25% 32% 3% 32% 65.8% 2% 30% 24% 32% 3% 35% 62.6% 2% 33% 23% 31% 3% 40% 58.0% 2% 35% 19% 27% 2% 46% 52.5% 1% 43% 17% 30% 2% 48% 51.1% 1% 42% 23% 23% 1% 47% 52.2% 1% 43% 16% 30% 2% 45% 54.2% 1% 42% 19% 28% 1% 51% 48.1% 1% 47% 18% 25% 1% 52% 48.4% 0% 48% 20% 25%

Fuel - Southern Homes Equipment - Southern Homes **Ma rket Shares by Region** 

1% 52% 48.4% 0% 48% 20% 25% 1% 51% 49.1% 0% 47% 20% 23% 1.9% 49% 50.6% 1% 43.8% 20% 26% 1.9% 49% 50.3% 1% 45% 20% 26% 1.7% 49% 50.3% 0% 47% 20% 25% 1.9% 42% 58.0% 0% 38% 23% 29% 1.5% 43% 57.1% 0% 40% 23% 29%

HEAT PUMP Percentage of Electric Heat 61% 53% 49% American Housing Survey **Southern Region Only NUMBER OF SA** **MP LES**  Sumof CountOfweight Electric Heat Pump

Grand Total Electricity Furn. HeatPump YearRange 5977817 39903370 12.1% 15.0% 55.4% 1919 or Earlier 3134494 28927781 9.2% 10.8% 54.2% 1920-1929 9419888 60441104 14.8% 15.6% 51.3% 1930-1939 14022885 106435987 15.4% 13.2% 46.1% 1940-1949 Fraction of Elec. Equip.

# 40869865 215951000 10.4% 18.9% 64.6% 1950-1959

69030967 316973760 16.8% 21.8% 56.5% 1960-1969 55601244 247635429 30.3% 22.5% 42.6% 1970-1974 67444493 205712546 30.3% 32.8% 52.0% 1975-1978 40834689 98633397 29.5% 41.4% 58.4% 1979 21489430 48724208 29.3% 44.1% 60.1% 1980 17119680 45424010 30.5% 37.7% 55.2% 1981 17696583 45254053 32.9% 39.1% 54.3% 1982 26045270 63571030 32.0% 41.0% 56.1% 1983 25893805 76657473 37.6% 33.8% 47.4% 1984 30222380 69663097 30.8% 43.4% 58.5% 1985 23248096 65124347 27.7% 35.7% 56.3% 1986 22310757 51329639 27.3% 43.5% 61.4% 1987 22396201 41841808 20.0% 53.5% 72.8% 1988 20461717 45463745 21.6% 45.0% 67.6% 1989 19337478 43810551 27.7% 44.1% 61.5% 1990 23235526 51365008 23.7% 45.2% 65.6% 1991 23259209 48521116 18.7% 47.9% 71.9% 1992 26852229 54067628 17.0% 49.7% 74.5% 1993 29069536 62536615 14.4% 46.5% 76.3% 1994 15015909 34263036 18.1% 43.8% 70.8% 1995 6699901482168231738 Grand Total

American Housing Survey **All Regions Excluding South NUMBER OF SA** **MP LES**  Sumof CountOfweight Electric Heat Pump

Grand Total Electricity Furn. HeatPump YearRange 6225542 300464944 1919 or Earlier 4430525 165437472 1920-1929 3587114 171933212 1930-1939 5631492 227302915 1940-1949 9071154 464061558 1950-1959 14793755 477650126 5.5% 3.1% 36.1% 1960-1969 15772863 301302696 9.6% 5.2% 35.2% 1970-1974 28819191 255123763 14.7% 11.3% 43.4% 1975-1978 16351482 106653713 10.5% 15.3% 59.4% 1979 6151295 44389791 11.7% 13.9% 54.1% 1980 4985334 42724905 15.2% 11.7% 43.4% 1981 4175952 24305998 6.6% 17.2% 72.1% 1982 6358123 41901557 10.5% 15.2% 59.1% 1983 9165989 43572034 11.8% 21.0% 64.0% 1984 8798797 57881259 13.7% 15.2% 52.6% 1985 6682357 47577305 10.1% 14.0% 58.2% 1986 8290206 56936553 10.9% 14.6% 57.2% 1987 5304108 51699041 11.3% 10.3% 47.5% 1988 6632614 55984197 7.9% 11.8% 60.1% 1989 5215089 56806627 10.1% 9.2% 47.5% 1990 Fraction of Elec. Equip.

# 6561457 56307462 12.0% 11.7% 49.3% 1991

6381731 61077682 10.1% 10.4% 50.9% 1992 8066712 63134108 8.7% 12.8% 59.6% 1993 6319072 60676153 6.6% 10.4% 61.1% 1994 4091782 37050739 7.8% 11.0% 58.6% 1995 2078637363271955810 Grand Total

American Housing Survey **Manufactured Housing Only NUMBER OF SA** **MP LES**  Sumof CountOfweight Electric Heat Pump

Grand Total Electricity Furn. HeatPump YearRange 465202 15230183 1919 or Earlier 188164 7737567 1920-1929 82577 7189447 1930-1939 307286 8410876 1940-1949 1655511 13340593 1950-1959 3203247 25544937 27.7% 12.5% 31.1% 1960-1969 4997459 30851712 34.0% 16.2% 32.3% 1970-1974 5046423 17340644 34.2% 29.1% 46.0% 1975-1978 2143145 9269993 41.2% 23.1% 36.0% 1979 1232658 5464088 41.8% 22.6% 35.1% 1980 1339445 5275820 51.7% 25.4% 33.0% 1981 1236739 5013541 40.8% 24.7% 37.7% 1982 1936486 6529471 42.6% 29.7% 41.0% 1983 3572608 8497382 27.5% 42.0% 60.5% 1984 894226 5315310 55.8% 16.8% 23.2% 1985 418049 2694580 28.4% 15.5% 35.3% 1986 Fraction of Elec. Equip.

418049 2694580 28.4% 15.5% 35.3% 1986 1867801 3918793 7.6% 47.7% 86.2% 1987

1532117 25.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1988 687565 2155384 34.5% 31.9% 48.1% 1989 789632 2772413 34.8% 28.5% 45.0% 1990 268203 2905673 54.0% 9.2% 14.6% 1991 513659 1186005 0.0% 43.3% 100.0% 1992 271630 933293 0.0% 29.1% 100.0% 1993 625554 1097681 18.4% 57.0% 75.6% 1994 301237 1815108 0.0% 16.6% 100.0% 1995 34044506 192022611 Grand Total

MH 31.1% 32.3% 46.0% 36.0% 35.1% 33.0% 37.7% 41.0% 60.5%

# 23.2%

35.3% 86.2% 0.0% 48.1% 45.0% 14.6% 100.0% 100.0% 75.6% 100.0%

# GAS ELEC Other GF EF HP

49% 40% 10% 41% 16% 13% 45% 41% 14% 38% 16% 14% 44% 42% 14% 38% 17% 15% 43% 44% 13% 37% 19% 16% 42% 44% 13% 37% 20% 16% 44% 44% 12% 39% 20% 16% 48% 42% 10% 43% 20% 16% 50% 40% 10% 45% 18% 15% 47% 38% 14% 42% 17% 15% 53% 38% 10% 47% 16% 16% 52% 39% 9% 47% 16% 17% 54% 38% 8% 49% 14% 17% 57% 34% 9% 51% 13% 16% 62% 28% 10% 56% 11% 13% 64% 26% 10% 59% 9% 12% 67% 24% 9% 62% 9% 12% 68% 23% 9% 63% 8% 11% 67% 23% 10% 58% 8% 11% 74% 18% 8% 68% 6% 10% 76% 17% 7% 67% 7% 8% 78% 15% 6% 71% 5% 9% 77% 16% 7% 71% 6% 8% 73% 22% 5% 67% 8% 12% 72% 23% 4% 68% 9% 12% **Ma rket Shares by Region** 

Fuel - Non-Southern Homes Equipment - Non-Southern Homes

72% 23% 4% 68% 9% 12% 72% 23% 4% 67% 10% 11% 73% 23% 4% 65% 9% 12% 74% 22% 4% 68% 9% 11% 75% 21% 4% 71% 8% 11% 83% 12% 5% 77% 5% 6% 86% 9% 5% 82% 4% 5%

American Housing Survey **Southern Region Only NUMBER OF SA** **MP LES** 

HeatingEquipment

FuelType Central Warm Air Furnace Electric Heat Pump Grand Total Electricity Gas Electricity

19 132 25 176 11 104 14 129 33 186 42 261 71 339 61 471

# 98 666 176 940 231 841 300 1372 323 507 245 1075 272 336 295 903 119 121 164 404 59 53 85 197 49 51 62 162 58 44 63 165 65 57 90 212 102 69 91 262 85 68 123 276 73 89 96 258 57 60 92 209 36 49 98 183 40 67 92 199 24 43 68 135 34 55 70 159 26 55 77 158 25 66 77 168 21 66 92 179 18 44 49 111 1949 4168 2647 8764

American Housing Survey **All Regions Excluding South NUMBER OF SA** **MP LES** 

HeatingEquipment

FuelType Central Warm Air Furnace Electric Heat Pump Grand Total Electricity Gas Electricity

43 1392 35 1470 27 799 22 848 32 839 21 892 46 1164 29 1239 94 2429 49 2572 127 2280 73 2480 131 1281 71 1483 171 945 131 1247 57 454 79 590 25 141 28 194 27 124 18 169 5 72 16 93 17 128 24 169 21 123 37 181 35 202 38 275 20 165 31 216 26 204 37 267 25 189 24 238 20 219 30 269 20 196 21 237

# 22 173 27 222 17 193 26 236 19 205 28 252 10 187 25 222 10 117 16 143 1047 14221 936 16204

American Housing Survey **Manufactured Housing Only NUMBER OF SA** **MP LES** 

HeatingEquipment

FuelType Central Warm Air Furnace Electric Heat Pump Grand Total Electricity Gas Electricity

6 77 2 85 2 42 1 45 5 32 1 38 5 37 2 44 7 53 6 66 29 81 14 124 49 73 22 144 28 30 22 80 18 26 9 53 9 9 6 24 10 6 5 21 8 7 5 20 10 8 8 26 9 10 13 32 13 7 4 24 3 8 2 13 1 8 9 18 2 6 8 4 4 3 11 3 6 4 13 5 4 1 10

3 2 5 2 1 3 1 1 3 5

6 1 7 227 546 146 919

# DRAFT Warranty Years 5

**Non-Weatherized Gas Furnace**

Trial Standard Level AFUE Description Annual Gas Use Winter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Market

Average Gas Use Market

Average Elec UEC Market

Average Installed Price Annual

Maintenance Cost Annual Repair

Cost Market

Average Maintenance Cost Market

Average Repair Cost AFUE Market Share 2015

(MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 2006$ 2006$ 2006$ 78 1.6% **0** 78 78% AFUE - Baseline 68.1 587.7 $2,049 66.95 576 $2,457 $42 $32 $42 $37 80 51.7% **1** 80 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 67.7 596.5 $2,056 66.92 576 $2,457 $42 $32 $42 $37 81 0.0%

80 80% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage)68.7 372.2 $2,363 67.43 456 $2,621 $52 $40 $48 $42 90 11.5% **2** 81 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 66.9 589.5 $2,132 66.49 572 $2,498 $42 $32 $42 $37 92 32.9%

81 81% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage)67.9 368.2 $2,438 66.99 454 $2,661 $52 $40 $48 $42 96 2.4% **4** 90 90% AFUE 60.0 508.6 $2,760 63.08 533 $2,828 $42 $43 $42 $43

92 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area 62.2 524.6 $2,926 62.26 526 $2,945 $42 $43 $42 $43 Market Average AFUE 92 92% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage)62.9 323.5 $3,190 62.99 329 $3,202 $52 $54 $52 $54 Market Average UEC 92 92% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous)62.1 525.8 $3,233 62.21 527 $3,245 $52 $56 $52 $55 **5** 96 96% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous)59.8 507.7 $3,906 59.84 508 $3,906 $52 $55 $52 $55

**Weatherized Gas Furnace** Trial Standard Level AFUE Description Annual Gas Use Winter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Market

Average Gas Use Market

Average Elec UEC Market

Average Installed Price Annual

Maintenance Cost AFUE Market Share 2015 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 78 2% **0** 78 78% AFUE - Baseline 35.8 316.9 $3,651 32.5 288.6 $3,626 $39 80 52% **1** 80 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 32.5 289.6 $3,621 32.5 288.4 $3,626 $39 81 26%

81 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 32.4 287.9 $3,630 32.3 286.6 $3,631 $39 82 20% 82 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area 31.9 283.8 $3,636 31.9 283.8 $3,636 $39 **2** 83 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area 31.6 280.5 $3,648 31.6 280.5 $3,648 $39 Market Average AFUE Market Average UEC

**Mobile Home Gas Furnaces** Trial Standard Level AFUE Description Annual Gas Use Winter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Market

Average Gas Use Market

Average Elec UEC Market

Average Installed Price Annual

Maintenance Cost Weighted

Average Maint. Cost AFUE Market Share 2015 

# LCC Inputs

(MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 2006$ **75** 0.15
**0** 75 75% AFUE - Baseline 45.1 401.7 $762 39.7 381.2 $846 $4 $17 **80** 0.80 **1** 80 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 39.2 381.6 $841 38.9 379.4 $858 $19 $19 **90** 0.05

80 80% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage)39.7 254.4 $1,204 39.4 258.6 $1,203 $24 $24 **3** 81 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 38.7 377.1 $933 38.5 375.1 $946 $19 $19 Market Average AFUE

81 81% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage)39.2 251.6 $1,296 39.0 256.0 $1,291 $24 $24 Market Average UEC 82 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area 38.2 372.7 $960 38.1 370.9 $972 $19 $19 82 82% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage)38.8 248.9 $1,323 38.6 253.3 $1,317 $24 $24 **4** 90 90% AFUE Condensing 35.0 333.4 $1,189 35.0 333.7 $1,189 $26 $26

Trial Standard Level AFUE Description Annual Oil Use Winter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Market

Average Gas Use Market

Average Elec UEC Market

Average Installed Price Annual

Maintenance Cost AFUE Market Share 2015 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 78 4.0% **0** 78 78% AFUE - Baseline 74.1 798.6 $2,890 70.7 761.5 $2,980 $110 80 57.0% **1** 80 80% AFUE- Increased HX Area 71.7 773.0 $2,901 70.6 760.7 $2,980 $110 81 9.0%

81 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 70.9 763.9 $2,906 70.1 755.2 $2,984 $110 82 7.5% 81 81% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 71.6 591.9 $2,930 70.6 634.8 $3,000 $110 83 7.5% 81 81% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 72.5 388.9 $3,204 71.2 492.7 $3,192 $110 84 7.5% 82 82% AFUE - Increased HX Area 70.1 754.8 $2,910 69.5 748.9 $2,986 $110 85 7.5% **2** 82 82% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 70.8 584.9 $2,944 70.1 617.3 $3,013 $110

82 82% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 71.6 384.2 $3,207 70.7 461.8 $3,217 $110 Market Average AFUE 83 83% AFUE - Increased HX Area 69.2 744.6 $3,078 68.9 742.2 $3,115 $110 Market Average UEC 83 83% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 69.9 576.8 $3,112 69.5 599.6 $3,144 $110 83 83% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 70.7 379.3 $3,376 70.2 431.8 $3,368 $110 84 84% AFUE - Increased HX Area 68.4 736.2 $3,243 68.2 735.0 $3,255 $110 **4** 84 84% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 69.1 570.2 $3,277 68.9 581.4 $3,287 $110

84 84% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 69.9 375.1 $3,540 69.6 401.0 $3,530 $110 85 85% AFUE - Increased HX Area 67.5 727.3 $3,414 67.5 727.3 $3,414 $110 **5** 85 85% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 68.2 563.0 $3,448 68.2 563.0 $3,448 $110

85 85% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 68.9 370.9 $3,712 68.9 370.9 $3,712 $110

**Gas Boiler Oil Furnace** 

0900006480fa7774.xls Julie Osborn 1/27/20126:59 PM

# DRAFT Trial Standard Level AFUE Description Annual Gas Use Winter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Market

Average Gas Use Market

Average Elec UEC Market

Average Installed Price Annual

Maintenance Cost Weighted

Average Maint. Cost AFUE Market Share 2015 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 2006$ 80 35% **0** 80 80% AFUE - Baseline 78.4 132.8 $3,335 75.54 141.3 $3,592 $39 $39 81 22%

81 81% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 75.5 148.0 $3,407 74.28 145.9 $3,617 $39 $39 82 14% 81 81% AFUE Two-stage Modulation + Induced Draft 75.3 188.7 $3,558 74.19 168.8 $3,702 $49 $45 83 15% **1** 82 82% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 74.3 146.2 $3,499 73.77 144.9 $3,670 $39 $39 84 9% 82 82% AFUE - Two-stage Modulation + Induced Draft 74.1 186.7 $3,651 73.65 173.3 $3,776 $49 $46 91 3% 83 83% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 73.6 144.6 $3,664 73.14 143.6 $3,784 $39 $39 99 3% 83 83% AFUE Two-stage Modulation + Induced Draft 73.5 184.7 $3,816 73.00 177.8 $3,913 $49 $48 **2** 84 84% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 72.8 143.0 $3,659 72.40 142.2 $3,780 $39 $39 Market Average AFUE 84 84% AFUE - Two-stage Modulation + Induced Draft 72.7 182.8 $3,810 72.25 179.7 $3,922 $49 $49 Market Average UEC 85 85% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 72.0 141.3 $3,947 71.60 140.6 $4,051 $39 $39 85 85% AFUE - Two-stage Modulation + Induced Draft 71.8 180.9 $4,098 71.45 177.9 $4,193 $49 $49 86 86% AFUE - Improved Heat Transfer Coef & Electronic Ignition 71.1 139.7 $4,529 70.82 139.1 $4,599 $39 $39 91 91% AFUE 67.2 132.1 $5,128 67.17 131.9 $5,162 $49 $49 **5** 99 99% AFUE 61.9 121.7 $6,223 61.94 121.7 $6,223 $49 $49

**Oil Boiler** Trial Standard Level AFUE Description Annual Oil Use Winter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Market

Average Gas Use Market

Average Elec UEC Market

Average Installed Price Annual

Maintenance Cost AFUE Market Share 2015 (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ (MMBtu) (kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 80 5.3% **0** 80 80% AFUE 83.3 306.1 $3,605 79.14 280.3 $3,998 $110 81 5.4%

81 81% AFUE- Increased HX Area 81.9 300.6 $3,625 79.09 280.1 $3,998 $110 82 5.3% 81 81% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 82.1 240.6 $3,660 79.12 273.7 $4,002 $110 83 23.3% 82 82% AFUE- Increased HX Area 81.5 294.5 $3,644 78.98 279.7 $3,999 $110 84 23.4% 82 82% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 81.7 235.6 $3,679 79.02 270.3 $4,005 $110 85 23.3% 82 82% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 81.4 314.7 $3,955 78.97 283.0 $4,049 $110 86 7.0% **1** 83 83% AFUE- Increased HX Area 79.8 288.6 $3,652 78.83 279.2 $4,000 $110 90 7.0%

83 83% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 80.1 230.9 $3,688 78.92 256.5 $4,014 $110 83 83% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 79.8 309.1 $3,963 78.80 287.3 $4,122 $110 Market Average AFUE **4** 84 84% AFUE- Increased HX Area 78.8 285.0 $3,885 78.46 277.9 $4,091 $110 Market Average UEC

84 84% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 79.0 228.1 $3,920 78.61 242.2 $4,113 $110 84 84% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 78.7 305.4 $4,196 78.41 290.6 $4,286 $110 85 85% AFUE- Increased HX Area 78.3 281.4 $4,127 77.89 275.8 $4,241 $110

85% AFUE- Increased HX Area 85 85% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 78.5 225.2 $4,162 78.08 227.4 $4,272 $110 85 85% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 78.2 301.9 $4,438 77.82 293.4 $4,509 $110 86 86% AFUE- Increased HX Area 77.4 277.8 $4,354 77.12 273.0 $4,437 $110 86 86% AFUE - Interrupted Ignition 77.6 222.3 $4,389 77.32 221.4 $4,470 $110 86 86% AFUE - Atomized Burner w/ Two-stage Modulation 77.3 298.3 $4,665 77.04 292.1 $4,726 $110 90 90% AFUE 74.1 212.3 $5,491 74.15 212.3 $5,491 $110 **5** 95 95% AFUE 70.3 201.2 $6,385 70.29 201.2 $6,385 $110

0900006480fa7774.xls Julie Osborn 1/27/20126:59 PM

# DRAFT

United States Cold States WarmStates

Cum. Mkt Share Gas UEC Electricity UEC Installed Price Annual Maintenance Cost Annual

Repair Cost Description Annual Gas UseWinter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Annual

Maintena nce CostAnnual

Repair Cost Annual

Gas UseWinter

Electricity Use Installed

Price Annual

Maintena nce CostAnnual

Repair Cost Annual

Gas UseWinter

Electricity Use 1.6% 68.1 587.7 $2,049 $42 $32 (MMBtu)(kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 2006$(MMBtu)(kWh) 2006$ 2006$ 2006$(MMBtu)(kWh) 53.3% 67.8 597.2 $2,056 $42 $32 78% AFUE - Baseline41.2 362.1 $1,974 $42 $29 68.1 587.7 $2,049 $42 $32 28.5 263.9 53.3% 109.5 1089.6 $2,261 $45 $33 80% AFUE - Increased HX Area 48.9 431.0 $2,028 $42 $32 67.7 596.5 $2,056 $42 $32 44.5 392.8 64.7% 57.6 475.8 $2,797 $42 $44 80% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage) 49.6 275.0 $2,329 $52 $40 68.7 372.2 $2,363 $52 $40 45.1 252.5 97.6% 68.9 577.3 $2,898 $42 $42 81% AFUE - Increased HX Area 48.5 426.6 $2,104 $42 $32 66.9 589.5 $2,132 $42 $32 44.1 389.6 100.0% 66.3 568.8 $3,733 $52 $51 81% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage) 49.1 272.2 $2,406 $52 $40 67.9 368.2 $2,438 $52 $40 44.7 250.4 90% AFUE 44.9 380.7 $2,726 $42 $42 60.0 508.6 $2,760 $42 $43 41.2 350.2 85.4 92% AFUE - Increased HX Area 48.1 406.8 $2,917 $42 $43 62.2 524.6 $2,926 $42 $43 44.1 373.8 66.9 92% AFUE - Modulation (Two-stage) 48.7 256.2 $3,179 $52 $54 62.9 323.5 $3,190 $52 $54 44.7 237.3 92% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) 48.1 414.1 $3,223 $52 $55 62.1 525.8 $3,233 $52 $56 44.1 382.8 96% AFUE - Modulation (Continuous) 46.4 400.2 $3,894 $52 $55 59.8 507.7 $3,906 $52 $55 42.5 369.5

Cum. Mkt Share Gas UEC Electricity UEC Installed Price

2.0% 35.8 316.9 $3,651 54.0% 32.5 288.9 $3,619 80.0% 32.9 291.5 $3,634 100.0% 31.6 281.1 $3,632

80.6 32.5

Cum. Mkt Share Gas UEC Electricity UEC Installed Price Annual Maintenance Cost 15% 45.1 401.7 $762 $4 95% 39.0 380.1 $841 $19 100% 34.8 338.3 $1,189 $26

79.8 39.7

Cum. Mkt Share Annual Oil

Use (MMBtu) Winter

Electricity Use (kWh) Installed Price

(2006$) 4.0% 74.12 798.60 $2,890 61.0% 71.63 772.59 $2,901 70.0% 71.13 763.31 $2,900 77.5% 70.27 753.00 $2,913 85.0% 68.24 728.97 $3,100 92.5% 68.43 737.30 $3,239 100.0% 66.34 720.22 $3,407

81.1 70.7

0900006480fa7774.xls Julie Osborn 1/27/20126:59 PM

# DRAFT

Cum. Mkt ShareAnnual Gas

Use (MMBtu) Winter

Electricity Use (kWh) Installed Price

(2006$) Annual

Maintenance Cost 35% 78.42 132.8 $3,335 $39 56% 76.65 151.0 $3,409 $39 70% 73.11 146.5 $3,490 $39 85% 74.59 145.2 $3,677 $39 94% 73.55 143.2 $3,653 $39 97% 65.66 132.0 $5,145 $39 100% 65.72 128.0 $6,253 $49

82.2 75.5

Cum. Mkt ShareAnnual Gas

Use (MMBtu) Winter

Electricity Use (kWh) Installed Price

(2006$) 5% 83.32 306.06 $3,605 11% 81.43 298.90 $3,636 16% 82.72 289.42 $3,666 39% 79.36 286.95 $3,653 63% 78.60 284.69 $3,886 86% 79.48 280.57 $4,133 93% 76.60 272.90 $4,354 100% 73.98 209.64 $5,536

84.1 79.1

0900006480fa7774.xls Julie Osborn 1/27/20126:59 PM

# DRAFT

United States Cold States WarmStates

Installed Price Annual

Maintena nce CostAnnual

Repair Cost Market

Share 2015Gas UECElectricity UEC Installed

Price Annual

Maintena nce CostAnnual

Repair Cost Market

Share 2015Gas UECElectricity UEC Installed

Price Annual

Maintena nce CostAnnual

Repair Cost Market

Share 2015Gas UECElectricity UEC Installed

Price Annual

Maintena nce CostAnnual

Repair Cost 2006$ 2006$ 2006$ 1.4% 41.2 362.1 $1,974 $42 $29 1.6% 68.1 587.7 $2,049 $42 $32 1.4% 28.5 263.9 $1,978 $42 $31 $1,978 $42 $31 62.2% 49.1 432.8 $2,029 $42 $32 51.7% 67.8 597.2 $2,056 $42 $32 65.5% 44.9 395.7 $2,027 $42 $31 $2,026 $42 $31 0.8% 56.2 485.1 $2,266 $42 $37 0.0% 109.5 1089.6$2,261 $45 $33 0.9% 57.2 495.6 $2,248 $42 $33 $2,326 $52 $40 8.7% 52.6 438.0 $2,789 $42 $44 11.5% 57.6 475.8 $2,797 $42 $44 8.2% 51.5 431.9 $2,790 $42 $44 $2,101 $42 $31 24.8% 60.5 507.2 $2,956 $42 $43 32.9% 68.9 577.3 $2,898 $42 $42 22.0% 57.5 480.9 $2,969 $42 $44 $2,402 $52 $40 2.2% 54.4 479.6 $3,779 $52 $54 2.4% 66.3 568.8 $3,733 $52 $51 2.1% 49.4 434.6 $3,783 $52 $54 $2,723 $42 $42 $2,915 $42 $43 $3,177 $52 $54 $3,221 $52 $55 $3,892 $52 $55

0900006480fa7774.xls Julie Osborn 1/27/20126:59 PM

# Source:Gas Furnace, Oil Furnace, Electric Furnace and Heat Pump Replacement Rates: Appliance Magazine, September 2001 

# Life Expectancy Oil Electric Gas Oil NW W MH FurnaceFurnaceBoiler Boiler Low 10 12 14 10 11 20 20 Point 20 18 19 15 17 25 25 High 30 24 23 20 23 30 30



# Retirement Probability **30** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **29** 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% **28** 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0% **27** 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% **26** 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0% **25** 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% **24** 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0% **23** 7.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% **22** 8.0% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 8.0% 8.0% **21** 9.0% 8.3% 11.1% 0.0% 5.6% 4.0% 4.0% **20** 10.0% 11.1% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% **19** 9.0% 13.9% 22.2% 4.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% **18** 8.0% 16.7% 17.8% 8.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% **17** 7.0% 13.9% 13.3% 12.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% **16** 6.0% 11.1% 8.9% 16.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% **15** 5.0% 8.3% 4.4% 20.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% **14** 4.0% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 

# Retirement Function

Gas Furnace

**14** 4.0% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% **13** 3.0% 2.8% 0.0% 12.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% **12** 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% **11** 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **10** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **9** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **8** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **7** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **6** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **5** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **4** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **3** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **2** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **1** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



# 25% **Heating Equipment** **Retirement Function** 

Non

-Weatherized Gas Furnace

Weatherized Gas Furnace

# 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%**R e** **t i** **r e** **m e** **n t** **P r** **o b** **a b** **i l** **i t** **y**



# Years

Weatherized Gas Furnace

Mobile Home Furnace

Oil Furnace

Electric Furnace

Gas Boiler

Oil Boiler

Heat Pump

# Gas Furnace, Oil Furnace, Electric Furnace and Heat Pump Replacement Rates: Appliance Magazine, September 2001

Heat Oil Electric Gas Oil Pump NW W MH FurnaceFurnaceBoiler Boiler 6 14 21


# Retirement Probability 0.0% **1** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **2** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **3** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **4** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **5** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **6** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **7** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **8** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **9** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **10** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% **11** 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.8% **12** 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% **13** 3.0% 2.8% 0.0% 12.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% **14** 4.0% 5.6% 0.0% 16.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% **15** 5.0% 8.3% 4.4% 20.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% **16** 6.0% 11.1% 8.9% 16.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% **17** 7.0% 13.9% 13.3% 12.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% Gas Furnace

13.3% **17** 7.0% 13.9% 13.3% 12.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% **18** 8.0% 16.7% 17.8% 8.0% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% **19** 9.0% 13.9% 22.2% 4.0% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% **20** 10.0% 11.1% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% **21** 9.0% 8.3% 11.1% 0.0% 5.6% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% **22** 8.0% 5.6% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 8.0% 8.0% 3.3% **23** 7.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% 1.7% **24** 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% **25** 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% **26** 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0% 16.0% 0.0% **27** 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% **28** 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% **29** 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% **30** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

# Heat Oil Electric Gas Oil

Pump NW W MH FurnaceFurnaceBoiler Boiler



# Survival Probability 0.0% **1** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **2** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **3** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **4** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **5** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **6** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 1.7% **7** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 3.3% **8** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 5.0% **9** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 6.7% **10** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 8.3% **11** 99.0%100.0%100.0% 96.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 10.0% **12** 97.0%100.0%100.0% 88.0% 97.2%100.0%100.0% 11.7% **13** 94.0% 97.2%100.0% 76.0% 91.7%100.0%100.0% 13.3% **14** 90.0% 91.7%100.0% 60.0% 83.3%100.0%100.0% 11.4% **15** 85.0% 83.3% 95.6% 40.0% 72.2%100.0%100.0% 9.5% **16** 79.0% 72.2% 86.7% 24.0% 58.3%100.0%100.0% 7.6% **17** 72.0% 58.3% 73.3% 12.0% 41.7%100.0%100.0% Gas Furnace

7.6% **17** 72.0% 58.3% 73.3% 12.0% 41.7%100.0%100.0% 5.7% **18** 64.0% 41.7% 55.6% 4.0% 27.8%100.0%100.0% 3.8% **19** 55.0% 27.8% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7%100.0%100.0% 1.9% **20** 45.0% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **21** 36.0% 8.3% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 96.0% 96.0% 0.0% **22** 28.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.0% 88.0% 0.0% **23** 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76.0% 76.0% 0.0% **24** 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 60.0% 0.0% **25** 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% 0.0% **26** 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% **27** 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% **28** 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% **29** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% **30** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

# Heat Oil Electric Gas Oil

Pump NW W MH FurnaceFurnaceBoiler Boiler



# Survival Probability 100.0% **30** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% **29** 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0% **28** 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 100.0% **27** 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 12.0% 100.0% **26** 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 24.0% 24.0% 100.0% **25** 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40.0% 40.0% 98.3% **24** 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 60.0% 60.0% 95.0% **23** 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 76.0% 76.0% 90.0% **22** 28.0% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 88.0% 88.0% 83.3% **21** 36.0% 8.3% 5.6% 0.0% 2.8% 96.0% 96.0% 75.0% **20** 45.0% 16.7% 16.7% 0.0% 8.3%100.0%100.0% 65.0% **19** 55.0% 27.8% 33.3% 0.0% 16.7%100.0%100.0% 53.3% **18** 64.0% 41.7% 55.6% 4.0% 27.8%100.0%100.0% 40.0% **17** 72.0% 58.3% 73.3% 12.0% 41.7%100.0%100.0% 28.6% **16** 79.0% 72.2% 86.7% 24.0% 58.3%100.0%100.0% 19.0% **15** 85.0% 83.3% 95.6% 40.0% 72.2%100.0%100.0% 11.4% **14** 90.0% 91.7%100.0% 60.0% 83.3%100.0%100.0% Gas Furnace

11.4% **14** 90.0% 91.7%100.0% 60.0% 83.3%100.0%100.0% 5.7% **13** 94.0% 97.2%100.0% 76.0% 91.7%100.0%100.0% 1.9% **12** 97.0%100.0%100.0% 88.0% 97.2%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **11** 99.0%100.0%100.0% 96.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **10** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **9** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **8** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **7** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **6** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **5** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **4** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **3** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **2** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0% 0.0% **1** 100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

# Heat

Pump

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 5.7% 11.4% 19.0% 28.6% 40.0% 53.3% 65.0% 75.0% 83.3% 90.0% 95.0% 98.3% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

# Source:Annual Energy Outlook 2007

REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO 

# 2004 2.08 2.08 2.08 1.60 1.60 1.60 0.35 0.35 

# 2005 2.22 2.22 2.22 1.72 1.72 1.72 0.35 0.35 

# 2006 2.03 2.03 2.03 1.55 1.55 1.55 0.35 0.35 

# 2007 1.91 1.71 2.11 1.42 1.32 1.52 0.33 0.26 

# 2008 1.93 1.66 2.20 1.38 1.22 1.54 0.35 0.27 

# 2009 1.92 1.63 2.21 1.37 1.18 1.55 0.34 0.27 

# 2010 1.94 1.62 2.26 1.40 1.18 1.62 0.32 0.25 

# 2011 1.94 1.62 2.27 1.40 1.17 1.63 0.32 0.25 

# 2012 1.90 1.57 2.23 1.36 1.13 1.60 0.32 0.24 

# 2013 1.88 1.55 2.21 1.34 1.09 1.59 0.32 0.25 

# 2014 1.88 1.52 2.25 1.34 1.05 1.63 0.32 0.25 

# 2015 1.91 1.53 2.28 1.36 1.06 1.66 0.32 0.26 

# 2016 1.92 1.55 2.30 1.36 1.06 1.66 0.33 0.27 

# 2017 1.91 1.53 2.30 1.34 1.02 1.66 0.34 0.28 

# 2018 1.91 1.53 2.30 1.33 1.01 1.65 0.35 0.29 

# 2019 1.90 1.50 2.31 1.31 0.97 1.65 0.35 0.30 

# 2020 1.90 1.48 2.33 1.29 0.94 1.65 0.36 0.31 

# 2021 1.88 1.24 2.20 1.27 0.83 1.59 0.36 0.26 2022 1.85 1.19 2.19 1.25 0.80 1.57 0.36 0.25 2023 1.83 1.15 2.17 1.23 0.76 1.55 0.36 0.25 2024 1.83 1.11 2.20 1.22 0.73 1.57 0.37 0.25 2025 1.85 1.10 2.25 1.24 0.72 1.61 0.37 0.25 2026 1.86 1.08 2.29 1.24 0.71 1.63 0.37 0.25 2027 1.85 1.06 2.28 1.22 0.67 1.61 0.38 0.26 2028 1.81 1.04 2.23 1.18 0.65 1.54 0.38 0.27 2029 1.80 0.99 2.26 1.16 0.61 1.55 0.39 0.27 2030 1.80 1.00 2.27 1.17 0.61 1.55 0.39 0.28 2031 1.81 1.00 2.28 1.17 0.61 1.56 0.39 0.28 2032 1.82 1.01 2.29 1.18 0.61 1.57 0.39 0.28 2033 1.82 1.01 2.30 1.18 0.62 1.58 0.39 0.28 2034 1.83 1.02 2.31 1.19 0.62 1.59 0.40 0.28 2035 1.84 1.02 2.32 1.20 0.62 1.59 0.40 0.29 2036 1.85 1.03 2.33 1.20 0.63 1.60 0.40 0.29 2037 1.86 1.03 2.34 1.21 0.63 1.61 0.40 0.29 2038 1.86 1.04 2.35 1.21 0.63 1.62 0.40 0.29 2039 1.87 1.04 2.36 1.22 0.64 1.63 0.41 0.29 2040 1.88 1.04 2.37 1.23 0.64 1.63 0.41 0.29 2041 1.89 1.05 2.38 1.23 0.64 1.64 0.41 0.29 2042 1.90 1.05 2.39 1.24 0.64 1.65 0.41 0.30 

# Projected New**Housing Construction and Mobile Home Placements** 

**New Housing Units (million)**

Total Single Family Starts Multi-Family Starts

## HI REF LO HI

0.35 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.35 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.35 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.41 0.15 0.14 0.17 0.44 0.19 0.16 0.22 0.42 0.21 0.18 0.24 0.40 0.22 0.19 0.24 0.40 0.22 0.20 0.24 0.39 0.22 0.20 0.24 0.39 0.22 0.20 0.23 0.38 0.23 0.21 0.24 0.38 0.23 0.22 0.24 0.39 0.24 0.22 0.25 0.40 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.40 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.41 0.24 0.23 0.25 0.42 0.24 0.23 0.25 

# 0.36 0.24 0.15 0.25 0.37 0.24 0.14 0.25 0.37 0.24 0.14 0.25 0.38 0.24 0.13 0.25 0.38 0.24 0.13 0.26 0.40 0.24 0.12 0.26 0.41 0.25 0.12 0.27 0.42 0.25 0.12 0.27 0.43 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.43 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.44 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.44 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.44 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.44 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.45 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.45 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.45 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.45 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.45 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.25 0.11 0.28 0.46 0.25 0.11 0.28 Multi-Family

Starts Manufactured Home PlacementsEnergy Prices from LCC analysis AverageMarginal From AEO2006 (in 2004 dollars) 2015 2015 Electricity Prices after 2025 extrapolated based on 2015-2025 Growth Rate From AEO2005 **Source:**Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Winter Gas Price ($/MMBtu) $11.01 $10.36 Gas Prices after 2025 extrapolated based on 2010-2025 Growth Rate Winter Electricity Price ($/kWh) 0.11 $0.09 Distillate Fuel Prices after 2025 extrapolated based on 2015-2025 Growth Rate Source: AEO 2005 MHR Forecast Gas Marginal Heat Rate based on Furnace Load Shape Electric Marginal Heat Rate (furnace fan) based on refrigerator (base) load shape

REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI REF LO HI Elec (Btu/kWh)Scaler Gas NWGF MHGF 1998 2000 11500 3.37 1.08 1.078 1.051 2002 $27.64$27.64 $27.64 $8.57 $8.57 $8.57 $22.26$22.26$22.26 $8.06 $8.06 $8.06 $14.22 $14.22 $14.22 $8.49 $8.49 $8.49 $10.46$10.46$10.46 $9.17 $9.17 $9.17 2001 11500 3.37 1.083 1.078 1.051 2003 $27.89$27.89 $27.89 $10.07 $10.07 $10.07 $22.47$22.47$22.47 $9.47 $9.47 $9.47 $16.01 $16.01 $16.01 $9.93 $9.93 $9.93 $12.02 $12.02 $12.02 $10.51 $10.51 $10.51 2002 11500 3.37 1.083 1.078 1.051 2004 $27.97$27.97 $27.97 $11.07 $11.07 $11.07 $22.53$22.53$22.53$10.41 $10.41 $10.41 $18.80 $18.80$18.80$11.00$11.00$11.00$13.68$13.68$13.68$13.31 $13.31 $13.31 2003 11500 3.37 1.083 1.078 1.051 2005 $28.48$28.48 $28.48 $12.83 $12.83 $12.83 $22.94$22.94$22.94$12.07 $12.07 $12.07 $19.92 $19.92 $19.92 $12.62 $12.62 $12.62 $15.13$15.13$15.13$15.20$15.20$15.20 2004 11500 3.37 1.083 1.078 1.051 2006 $28.53$28.53 $28.51 $13.46 $13.46 $13.46 $22.98$22.98$22.96$12.66 $12.66 $12.66 $21.84 $21.84$21.84$13.30$13.30$13.30$16.24$16.24$16.24$17.45$17.45$17.45 2005 11500 3.37 1.083 1.078 1.051 2007 $28.38$28.45 $28.35 $12.22 $12.26 $12.01 $22.86$22.91 $22.83$11.49 $11.53 $11.30 $25.33 $25.38$25.12 $12.46$12.50$12.27$16.89$16.93$16.69$18.01 $18.00$17.98 2006 11500 3.37 1.083 1.078 1.051 2008 $28.25$28.43 $28.10 $12.12 $12.25 $11.99 $22.75$22.90$22.63$11.40 $11.52 $11.28 $25.28 $25.42 $25.15$12.37$12.49$12.25$16.81 $16.94$16.69$17.46$17.66$17.48 2007 11200 3.28 1.083 1.078 1.051 2009 $28.03$28.32 $27.75 $11.61 $11.88 $11.46 $22.58$22.81 $22.35$10.92 $11.18 $10.78 $24.73 $25.01 $24.58$11.89$12.15$11.75$16.31 $16.57$16.16$16.35$16.45$16.23 2008 10000 2.93 1.087 1.081 1.053 2010 $27.78$28.19 $27.36 $11.33 $11.54 $11.11 $22.38$22.71 $22.03$10.66 $10.85 $10.45 $24.44 $24.65$24.22 $11.62 $11.82 $11.42 $16.03$16.23$15.82 $15.35$15.46$15.30 2009 9737 2.85 1.090 1.083 1.055 2011 $27.36$27.83 $26.88 $10.93 $11.22 $10.79 $22.04$22.42 $21.65$10.28 $10.55 $10.15 $24.01 $24.30$23.86$11.25$11.52 $11.11 $15.64$15.91 $15.50$14.48$14.59$14.39 2010 9737 2.85 1.093 1.086 1.057 2012 $27.13$27.68 $26.67 $10.78 $11.03 $10.51 $21.85$22.30$21.48$10.14 $10.38 $9.88 $23.85 $24.10$23.58$11.10$11.34$10.84$15.49$15.73$15.22 $13.79$13.95$13.70 2011 9737 2.85 1.096 1.089 1.059 2013 $27.02 $27.55 $26.37 $10.58 $10.85 $10.29 $21.76$22.19$21.24 $9.95 $10.21 $9.68 $23.64 $23.90$23.36$10.91 $11.17$10.64$15.29$15.55$15.02 $13.00$13.25$12.76 2012 9649 2.83 1.095 1.089 1.058 2014 $26.88$27.51 $26.19 $10.62 $10.84 $10.32 $21.65$22.16$21.10 $9.99 $10.20 $9.71 $23.68 $23.89$23.39$10.95$11.16$10.67$15.33$15.54$15.04$12.93$13.24$12.68 2013 9499 2.78 1.095 1.089 1.058 2015 $26.83$27.60 $26.18 $10.57 $10.78 $10.40 $21.61 $22.23$21.08 $9.94 $10.14 $9.78 $23.62 $23.82 $23.47$10.90$11.10$10.74$15.28$15.47$15.12 $13.00$13.41 $12.73 2014 8649 2.53 1.095 1.089 1.058 2016 $26.93$27.68 $26.25 $10.66 $10.81 $10.52 $21.69$22.29$21.14$10.03 $10.17 $9.90 $23.72 $23.85$23.59$10.99$11.12 $10.86$15.37$15.50$15.24$13.04$13.41 $12.82 2015 7324 2.15 1.096 1.089 1.059 2017 $27.15$27.86 $26.38 $10.90 $11.04 $10.70 $21.87$22.44$21.25$10.25 $10.38 $10.07 $23.94 $24.06$23.76$11.21 $11.34$11.03$15.59$15.71 $15.41 $13.15$13.57$12.95 2016 7024 2.06 1.098 1.091 1.060 2018 $27.30$28.03 $26.43 $10.83 $11.00 $10.61 $21.99$22.58$21.29$10.18 $10.35 $9.98 $23.88 $24.04$23.68$11.14$11.30$10.94$15.52 $15.69$15.33$13.24$13.72 $13.05 2017 7024 2.06 1.099 1.092 1.060 2019 $27.21 $27.93 $26.35 $10.78 $10.95 $10.55 $21.91 $22.50$21.22$10.14 $10.30 $9.93 $23.83 $23.99$23.63$11.09$11.26$10.89$15.48$15.64$15.27$13.47$13.84$13.26 2018 7024 2.06 1.100 1.093 1.061 2020 $27.22 $27.90 $26.32 $10.88 $10.96 $10.56 $21.92 $22.47$21.20$10.23 $10.31 $9.93 $23.93 $23.99$23.62 $11.19$11.26$10.89$15.58$15.64$15.27$13.57$13.98$13.37 2019 7024 2.06 1.099 1.092 1.061 2021 $27.27$27.88 $26.35 $10.88 $10.95 $10.55 $21.96$22.45$21.22$10.23 $10.30 $9.92 $23.90 $23.96$23.65$11.19$11.25$10.88$15.56$15.63$15.28$13.69$14.04$13.53 2020 7024 2.06 1.099 1.092 1.060 2022 $27.27$27.92 $26.43 $11.02 $11.17 $10.72 $21.97$22.48$21.29$10.36 $10.50 $10.09 $24.04 $24.16$23.79$11.32 $11.46$11.05$15.70$15.83$15.43$13.86$14.12 $13.71 2021 7024 2.06 1.099 1.092 1.060 2023 $27.32 $28.02 $26.47 $11.18 $11.28 $10.90 $22.00$22.57$21.32$10.52 $10.61 $10.26 $24.18 $24.25$23.93$11.47$11.57$11.21 $15.84$15.93$15.59$13.79$14.20$13.58 2022 7024 2.06 1.099 1.092 1.060 2024 $27.42 $28.10 $26.54 $11.30 $11.41 $10.96 $22.08$22.63$21.37$10.63 $10.73 $10.31 $24.30 $24.38$23.99$11.59$11.69$11.27$15.96$16.06$15.64$13.95$14.33$13.67 2023 7024 2.06 1.098 1.091 1.060 2025 $27.47$28.24 $26.60 $11.33 $11.52 $11.13 $22.12 $22.75$21.42$10.65 $10.83 $10.47 $24.29 $24.46$24.13$11.61 $11.79$11.42 $15.97$16.15$15.79$14.00$14.42 $13.83 2024 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2026 $27.42 $28.45 $26.64 $11.37 $11.77 $11.22 $22.09$22.92 $21.45$10.70 $11.07 $10.56 $24.32 $24.70$24.21 $11.65$12.02 $11.51 $16.01 $16.39$15.88$14.07$14.61 $13.81 2025 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2027 $27.43$28.67 $26.69 $11.48 $11.88 $11.32 $22.09$23.09$21.50$10.79 $11.18 $10.65 $24.42 $24.80$24.30$11.75$12.13$11.60$16.11 $16.49$15.97$14.25$14.75$13.83 2026 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2028 $27.46$28.78 $26.71 $11.62 $12.07 $11.37 $22.12 $23.18$21.51$10.93 $11.36 $10.69 $24.55 $24.97$24.34$11.88$12.31 $11.65$16.24$16.67$16.02 $14.35$14.88$13.89 2027 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2029 $27.60$28.91 $26.67 $11.74 $12.24 $11.31 $22.23$23.28$21.48$11.04 $11.52 $10.64 $24.64 $25.11 $24.26$11.99$12.47$11.59$16.34$16.82 $15.95$14.51 $15.00$13.98 2028 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2030 $27.62 $28.95 $26.53 $11.79 $12.21 $11.36 $22.25$23.32 $21.37$11.09 $11.48 $10.68 $24.68 $25.05$24.30$12.04$12.43$11.63$16.39$16.77$15.99$14.58$15.07$14.03 2029 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2031 $27.66$29.06 $26.55 $11.89 $12.34 $11.44 $22.28$23.41 $21.38$11.18 $11.61 $10.76 $24.76$25.15$24.37$12.13$12.56$11.71 $16.48$16.89$16.07$14.69$15.18$14.12 2030 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2032 $27.70$29.17 $26.57 $11.99 $12.48 $11.52 $22.31 $23.49$21.40$11.27 $11.73 $10.84 $24.83$25.26$24.43$12.22 $12.68$11.79$16.56$17.01 $16.14$14.81 $15.30$14.21 2031 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2033 $27.74$29.28 $26.59 $12.08 $12.61 $11.61 $22.34$23.58$21.42$11.37 $11.86 $10.92 $24.91 $25.37$24.50$12.31 $12.81 $11.87$16.65$17.13$16.22 $14.92 $15.42 $14.31 2032 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2034 $27.78$29.39 $26.61 $12.18 $12.75 $11.69 $22.38$23.67$21.44$11.46 $11.99 $11.00 $24.99$25.48$24.57$12.40$12.94$11.95$16.73$17.25$16.29$15.03$15.54$14.40 2033 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2035 $27.82 $29.50 $26.64 $12.28 $12.89 $11.78 $22.41 $23.76$21.45$11.55 $12.12 $11.08 $25.06$25.59$24.64$12.50$13.06$12.03$16.82 $17.38$16.37$15.15$15.66$14.50 2034 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2036 $27.87$29.61 $26.66 $12.38 $13.03 $11.86 $22.44$23.85$21.47$11.64 $12.25 $11.16 $25.14$25.70$24.71 $12.59$13.19$12.11 $16.91 $17.50$16.44$15.27$15.79$14.59 2035 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2037 $27.91 $29.72 $26.68 $12.48 $13.17 $11.95 $22.48$23.93$21.49$11.74 $12.39 $11.24 $25.22 $25.81 $24.78$12.68$13.33$12.19$17.00$17.62 $16.52 $15.38$15.91 $14.69 2036 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2038 $27.95$29.83 $26.70 $12.58 $13.31 $12.04 $22.51 $24.02 $21.50$11.83 $12.52 $11.32 $25.30$25.93$24.85$12.78$13.46$12.27$17.08$17.75$16.60$15.50$16.03$14.78 2037 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2039 $27.99$29.94 $26.72 $12.68 $13.46 $12.13 $22.54$24.11 $21.52$11.93 $12.66 $11.41 $25.37$26.04$24.92 $12.87$13.59$12.35$17.17$17.88$16.68$15.62 $16.16$14.88 2038 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2040 $28.03$30.05 $26.74 $12.79 $13.60 $12.21 $22.57$24.20$21.54$12.03 $12.80 $11.49 $25.45$26.15$24.99$12.97$13.73$12.43$17.26$18.00$16.75$15.74$16.29$14.97 2039 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2041 $28.07$30.16 $26.76 $12.89 $13.75 $12.30 $22.61 $24.29$21.55$12.12 $12.93 $11.57 $25.53$26.26$25.06$13.06$13.87$12.52 $17.35$18.13$16.83$15.86$16.41 $15.07 2040 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2042 $28.11 $30.27 $26.78 $12.99 $13.90 $12.39 $22.64$24.38$21.57$12.22 $13.07 $11.66 $25.61 $26.38$25.13$13.16$14.01 $12.60$17.44$18.26$16.91 $15.98$16.54$15.17 2041 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2043 $28.15$30.39 $26.80 $13.10 $14.05 $12.49 $22.67$24.47$21.59$12.32 $13.22 $11.74 $25.69$26.49$25.20$13.26$14.15$12.69$17.53$18.39$16.99$16.10$16.67$15.27 2042 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2044 $28.19$30.50 $26.82 $13.21 $14.20 $12.58 $22.71 $24.57$21.60$12.42 $13.36 $11.83 $25.77$26.61 $25.27$13.36$14.29$12.77$17.63$18.53$17.07$16.23$16.80$15.37 2043 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2045 $28.23$30.61 $26.85 $13.31 $14.36 $12.67 $22.74$24.66$21.62$12.52 $13.51 $11.92 $25.85$26.72 $25.35$13.45$14.43$12.86$17.72 $18.66$17.15$16.35$16.93$15.47 2044 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2046 $28.28$30.73 $26.87 $13.42 $14.52 $12.76 $22.77$24.75$21.64$12.62 $13.65 $12.00 $25.93$26.84$25.42 $13.55$14.58$12.94$17.81 $18.79$17.23$16.48$17.06$15.57 2045 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2047 $28.32 $30.84 $26.89 $13.53 $14.67 $12.85 $22.81 $24.84$21.66$12.73 $13.80 $12.09 $26.01 $26.95$25.49$13.66$14.72 $13.03$17.91 $18.93$17.32 $16.60$17.20$15.67 2046 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2048 $28.36$30.96 $26.91 $13.64 $14.83 $12.95 $22.84$24.93$21.67$12.83 $13.95 $12.18 $26.09$27.07$25.56$13.76$14.87$13.12 $18.00$19.07$17.40$16.73$17.33$15.78 2047 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2049 $28.40$31.07 $26.93 $13.75 $14.99 $13.04 $22.87$25.03$21.69$12.93 $14.10 $12.27 $26.17$27.19$25.63$13.86$15.02 $13.20$18.09$19.21 $17.48$16.86$17.47$15.88 2048 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2050 $28.44$31.19 $26.95 $13.86 $15.16 $13.14 $22.91 $25.12 $21.71$13.04 $14.26 $12.36 $26.25$27.31 $25.71 $13.96$15.17$13.29$18.19$19.35$17.56$16.99$17.60$15.98 2049 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2051 $28.48$31.30 $26.97 $13.97 $15.32 $13.24 $22.94$25.21 $21.72$13.14 $14.41 $12.45 $26.33$27.42 $25.78$14.07$15.32 $13.38$18.29$19.49$17.65$17.12 $17.74$16.09 2050 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2052 $28.53$31.42 $26.99 $14.09 $15.49 $13.33 $22.98$25.31 $21.74$13.25 $14.57 $12.54 $26.41 $27.54$25.85$14.17$15.48$13.47$18.38$19.63$17.73$17.25$17.88$16.19 2051 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2053 $28.57$31.54 $27.02 $14.20 $15.66 $13.43 $23.01 $25.40$21.76$13.36 $14.73 $12.63 $26.49$27.66$25.92 $14.28$15.63$13.56$18.48$19.77$17.82 $17.38$18.02 $16.30 2052 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2054 $28.61 $31.66 $27.04 $14.32 $15.83 $13.53 $23.04$25.50$21.78$13.47 $14.89 $12.72 $26.58$27.78$26.00$14.38$15.79$13.65$18.58$19.92 $17.90$17.52 $18.16$16.40 2053 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 **Projected Energy Prices and Heat Rates**

**Electricity Price (2006$ / MMBTU) Gas Price (2006$ / MMBtu)**  **NWGF LPG Price (2006$/MBTU)**  **NG/LPG Price (2006$/MBTU) Weighted NG + LPG** 
**Marginal Site to Source Conversion Factor Marginal Energy Prices**  **Average Energy Prices Gas Price (2006$ / MMBtu)**  **Average Energy Prices Electricity Price 2006$ / MMBTU**  **MHGF Average Energy Prices**  **NG/LPG Price (2006$/MBTU) Fuel Oil Price (2006$ / MMBTU)** 

2054 $28.61 $31.66 $27.04 $14.32 $15.83 $13.53 $23.04$25.50$21.78$13.47 $14.89 $12.72 $26.58$27.78$26.00$14.38$15.79$13.65$18.58$19.92 $17.90$17.52 $18.16$16.40 2053 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2055 $28.65$31.77 $27.06 $14.43 $16.00 $13.63 $23.08$25.59$21.79$13.57 $15.05 $12.82 $26.66$27.90$26.07$14.49$15.95$13.75$18.68$20.06$17.99$17.65$18.30$16.51 2054 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2056 $28.69$31.89 $27.08 $14.55 $16.17 $13.73 $23.11 $25.69$21.81$13.68 $15.21 $12.91 $26.74$28.02 $26.14$14.60$16.11 $13.84$18.78$20.21 $18.07$17.79$18.45$16.62 2055 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2057 $28.74$32.01 $27.10 $14.67 $16.35 $13.83 $23.14$25.78$21.83$13.80 $15.38 $13.01 $26.82 $28.14$26.22 $14.71 $16.27$13.93$18.88$20.36$18.16$17.92 $18.59$16.73 2056 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2058 $28.78$32.13 $27.12 $14.79 $16.53 $13.93 $23.18$25.88$21.84$13.91 $15.54 $13.10 $26.90$28.27$26.29$14.82 $16.43$14.02 $18.98$20.51 $18.25$18.06$18.74$16.84 2057 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2059 $28.82 $32.25 $27.14 $14.91 $16.71 $14.03 $23.21 $25.97$21.86$14.02 $15.71 $13.20 $26.99$28.39$26.37$14.93$16.60$14.12 $19.08$20.66$18.33$18.20$18.88$16.95 2058 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2060 $28.86$32.37 $27.17 $15.03 $16.89 $14.13 $23.25$26.07$21.88$14.13 $15.88 $13.29 $27.07$28.51 $26.44$15.04$16.77$14.21 $19.18$20.81 $18.42 $18.34$19.03$17.06 2059 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2061 $28.90$32.49 $27.19 $15.15 $17.07 $14.24 $23.28$26.17$21.90$14.25 $16.06 $13.39 $27.15$28.63$26.52 $15.15$16.94$14.31 $19.28$20.96$18.51 $18.48$19.18$17.17 2060 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2062 $28.95$32.61 $27.21 $15.27 $17.26 $14.34 $23.31 $26.26$21.91$14.36 $16.23 $13.49 $27.24$28.76$26.59$15.27$17.11 $14.41 $19.39$21.12 $18.60$18.62 $19.33$17.28 2061 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2063 $28.99$32.73 $27.23 $15.40 $17.44 $14.45 $23.35$26.36$21.93$14.48 $16.41 $13.59 $27.32 $28.88$26.67$15.38$17.28$14.50$19.49$21.27$18.69$18.76$19.48$17.39 2062 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2064 $29.03$32.85 $27.25 $15.52 $17.63 $14.55 $23.38$26.46$21.95$14.60 $16.59 $13.69 $27.41 $29.01 $26.74$15.49$17.46$14.60$19.59$21.43$18.78$18.91 $19.63$17.51 2063 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2065 $29.07$32.98 $27.27 $15.65 $17.83 $14.66 $23.42 $26.56$21.97$14.72 $16.77 $13.79 $27.49$29.13$26.82 $15.61 $17.63$14.70$19.70$21.59$18.87$19.05$19.78$17.62 2064 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2066 $29.12 $33.10 $27.29 $15.77 $18.02 $14.77 $23.45$26.66$21.98$14.84 $16.95 $13.89 $27.58$29.26$26.89$15.73$17.81 $14.80$19.80$21.75$18.96$19.20$19.94$17.74 2065 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2067 $29.16$33.22 $27.32 $15.90 $18.22 $14.87 $23.49$26.76$22.00$14.96 $17.13 $13.99 $27.66$29.39$26.97$15.85$17.99$14.90$19.91 $21.91 $19.05$19.35$20.10$17.85 2066 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2068 $29.20$33.35 $27.34 $16.03 $18.41 $14.98 $23.52 $26.86$22.02$15.08 $17.32 $14.09 $27.75$29.51 $27.04$15.96$18.17$15.00$20.02 $22.07$19.14$19.50$20.25$17.97 2067 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2069 $29.25$33.47 $27.36 $16.16 $18.61 $15.09 $23.55$26.96$22.04$15.20 $17.51 $14.20 $27.83$29.64$27.12 $16.08$18.36$15.10$20.13$22.24$19.24$19.64$20.41 $18.09 2068 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2070 $29.29$33.59 $27.38 $16.29 $18.82 $15.20 $23.59$27.06$22.05$15.32 $17.70 $14.30 $27.92 $29.77$27.20$16.20$18.54$15.20$20.23$22.41 $19.33$19.80$20.57$18.20 2069 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2071 $29.33$33.72 $27.40 $16.42 $19.02 $15.31 $23.62 $27.16$22.07$15.45 $17.89 $14.40 $28.00$29.90$27.27$16.33$18.73$15.31 $20.34$22.57$19.42 $19.95$20.73$18.32 2070 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059 2072 $29.37$33.84 $27.42 $16.56 $19.23 $15.43 $23.66$27.26$22.09$15.57 $18.08 $14.51 $28.09$30.03$27.35$16.45$18.92 $15.41 $20.45$22.74$19.52 $20.10$20.89$18.44 2071 7024 2.06 1.097 1.091 1.059

# Heating Load of Houses Shifted A **wa y** **from Gas due to Standards**

Non-Weatherized Gas Furnaces **Source:**RECS 2001 Sum of SumOfFinalWeight HEAT MainHeatingFuel

Central warm-air furnace with ducts Heat pumpGrand Total Bin HeatingUECBIN Electricity Natural gas from underground pipes Electricity 0 1205340 154207 731303 2651238 0 5 2004288 439289 1386645 1885364 5 10 1474755 837971 865918 2134552 10 15 1095488 868476 814656 1875201 15 20 1126133 1029352 1040278 1270524 20 25 513560 1238769 715738 1069373 25 30 324316 905269 489813 626670 30 35 482326 1050128 661477 716626 35 40 240218 844153 285358 566409 40 45 118103 1130203 196577 648259 45 50 141774 909458 82421 420972 50 55 121798 459186 108534 505050 55 60 82931 520902 161320 483918 60 65 473930 26998 515889 65 70 31627 483103 60460 421697 70 75 170588 411196 75 80 13499 392936 24886 352029 80 85 23803 141581 41802 92482 85 90 70609 77422 95 137329 115366 100 20597 54574 17051 49587 105 36109 14906 70237 110 45058 34932

3.50 4.00

# Heating Load



# 110 45058 34932 115 24755 34642 23298 23199 120 22315 288506 125 22315 13499 212794 135 16795 29810 22824 140 19741 31275 29682 180 11469 26188 165 13837 40003 185 17051 19463 150 16795 28455 160 31275 17611 170 21033 23094 195 29879 9404 220 22315 17736216 Grand Total 9095940 12653288 779274835472432



# Mobile Home Gas Furnaces Average Electricity Space Heating Consumption Electric Furnace

Heat PumpTotal Average AFUE 2000 79.75 kBtu / Year 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

0.0**M i** **l l** **i o** **n s** 

# Average Household Load (MMBtu) 49.82 MH 17886 15242 16793 SF Detached 15288 15453 15356 Elec Furn Consumption at Crossover 33.3 SF Attached 10375 8602 9642 2-4 Units 11177 12346 11660 Gas Consumption at Crossover41.8 5+ Units 3430 3477 3449 Average Electricity

Space Heating Consumption 11483 12557 **11927**

# Baseline Gas AFUEBase Elec

Eff

0.8 1.54

Gas UECElectricGas LoadElectric Gas Load Electric Midpoint MillionsMillions 29.65 27.48 28.6 0.15 1.94 0.0 0.0 0.44 3.39 4.0 7.7 Gas Electric 0.84 2.34 8.0 15.4 MMBtu kWh 0.87 1.91 12.0 23.1 35.70 5440.2 1.03 2.17 16.0 30.8 1.24 1.23 20.0 38.5 **Equipment Costs Related to Shift From Gas to Electric** 0.91 0.81 24.0 46.2 Gas Central Air Electric Heat 1.05 1.14 28.0 53.9 $2,457 $2,236 $600 $3,668 0.84 0.53 32.0 61.6 1.13 0.31 36.0 69.2 0.91 0.22 40.0 76.9 $3,668 0.46 0.23 44.0 84.6 0.52 0.24 48.0 92.3 0.47 0.03 52.0 100.0 0.48 0.09 56.0 107.7 0.17 0.00 60.0 115.4 0.39 0.04 64.0 123.1 0.14 0.07 68.0 130.8 $3,284 Reduction for using Electric rather than Gas Package $1,409 **Weighted Average Load (MMBtu)**

$4,693 $2,836

Weighted Average Electric System Cost **Weighted Average UEC**

Heating Load

-Southern Homes

-RECS 2001

Gas

Electric 

## Average 28.6



# Average Electricity Space Heating Consumption**Equipment Costs Related to Shift From Gas to Electric**

Gas CentralElectricHeat Pump $841 $1,789$480 $2,934 50.0 100.0 

# MMBtu Gas

Electric 

## Average 28.6

# $2,934

$86 Incremental Cost of Electric vs. Gas Heating $2,630$2,269

Weighted Average Electric System

$2,544

# Equipment Costs Related to Shift From Gas to Electric

# Year Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas

**1960** 29.9 17.6 **1961** 29.9 17.9 **1962** 29.9 17.9 **1963** 29.9 17.9 **1964** 29.8 17.9 **1965** 29.7 18 **1966** 29.7 18.1 **1967** 29.9 18.1 **1968** 30.2 18.2 **1969** 30.8 18.6 **1970** 31.8 19.6 **1971** 33.9 21 **1972** 35.6 22.1 **1973** 37.4 23.1 **1974** 44.1 26 **1975** 50 31.1 **1976** 53.1 36.3 **1977** 56.6 43.2 **1978** 60.9 47.5 61.4 53.1 65 47.2 59.2 50.3 **1979** 65.6 55.1 67.4 59.5 69.9 55.4 64.2 56.4 **1980** 75.8 65.7 77.4 68.8 76.9 64.2 73.1 64.1 **1981** 87.2 74.9 90.9 77.7 84.7 74.3 86.1 74.9 **1982** 95.8 89.8 96.3 91.6 93.4 88.3 95.4 91.3 **1983** 98.9 104.7 98.2 104.8 100 106.1 99.6 103.6 Fuel Price Indices

NORTHEAST MIDWEST SOUTH NATIONAL



# 1983 98.9 104.7 98.2 104.8 100 106.1 99.6 103.6 **1984** 105.3 105.5 105.5 103.7 106.7 105.6 105 105 **1985** 108.9 104.8 107.2 104.1 111.9 105.7 107.5 102.5 **1986** 110.4 99.7 107.6 100.6 116.7 98.7 108 98.8 **1987** 110 95.1 106.7 92.9 116.9 93 106.6 97 **1988** 111.5 94.5 106.7 90.2 116.7 92.5 108.5 98.6 **1989** 114.7 97.1 111.7 95.8 117.7 93.9 110.5 101.3 **1990** 117.4 97.3 117.6 97.3 116.9 91.6 112.7 103.5 **1991** 121.8 98.5 123.1 98.4 119.6 92.2 115.8 103.5 **1992** 124.2 100.3 127 101.9 120.3 95.7 118.1 104 **1993** 126.7 106.5 131.5 105.7 120.8 103.5 120.2 112.5 **1994** 126.7 108.5 132.5 114 118.5 101.6 120.1 113.2 **1995** 129.6 102.9 135.7 109.9 125 92.1 120.7 107.2 **1996** 131.8 107.2 137.9 113.8 126.4 101.9 125 114.4 **1997** 132.5 114.6 138.3 122.8 127.2 106.7 125.9 121.5 **1998** 127.4 112.4 134.9 121.6 126.5 102.8 116.7 117.8 **1999** 126.5 113 132.4 120.7 124.7 104.5 116.6 118.6 **2000** 128.5 132 133.9 130.3 125 127.7 119.4 139.8 **2001** 137.8 158.3 138.7 160.8 126 148.5 128.4 168.2 **2002** 136.2 135.3 132.4 143.5 125.6 126.9 122.1 141.9 **2003** 139.5 166.3 137.2 173.3 127.3 163.4 128.3 178 **2004** 142.1 180.1 140.8 185.4 129.5 180 133.6 187.9

# Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas Elec Gas Year

190.8 112.3 190.8 112.3 190.8 112.3 **1952** 188.9 113.1 188.9 113.1 188.9 113.1 **1953** 187.0 112.0 187.0 112.0 187.0 112.0 **1954** 184.6 110.5 184.6 110.5 184.6 110.5 **1955** 181.6 109.1 181.6 109.1 181.6 109.1 **1956** 178.1 107.9 178.1 107.9 178.1 107.9 **1957** 173.2 105.5 173.2 105.5 173.2 105.5 **1958** 169.1 102.4 169.1 102.4 169.1 102.4 **1959** 163.9 98.8 163.9 98.8 163.9 98.8 **1960** 158.5 95.7 158.5 95.7 158.5 95.7 **1961** 154.8 95.4 154.8 95.4 154.8 95.4 **1962** 158.1 97.9 158.1 97.9 158.1 97.9 **1963** 160.9 99.9 160.9 99.9 160.9 99.9 **1964** 159.1 98.3 159.1 98.3 159.1 98.3 **1965** 169.0 99.6 169.0 99.6 169.0 99.6 **1966** 175.6 109.2 175.6 109.2 175.6 109.2 **1967** 176.3 120.5 176.3 120.5 176.3 120.5 **1968** 176.4 134.7 176.4 134.7 176.4 134.7 **1969** 56.6 37.2 176.4 137.6 160.8 136.6 165.7 124.5 **1970** 58.4 47.2 170.7 143.4 156.6 137.6 159.1 131.8 **1971** 77.2 66.4 173.8 150.6 157.1 137.8 165.9 142.9 **1972** 87.3 72.4 181.2 155.7 167.7 145.9 170.7 145.7 **1973** 99.8 88.6 187.5 175.8 175.1 167.6 177.1 164.3 **1974** 97.1 103 187.6 198.6 177.1 184.2 175.0 186.0 **1975** South $2001 Non-South $2001 WEST 

# National $2001 CPI - ALL ITEMS

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

# Fuel Price Indices

97.1 103 187.6 198.6 177.1 184.2 175.0 186.0 **1975** 103.1 108.4 191.4 191.8 179.0 179.0 179.1 180.5 **1976** 109.9 106.1 191.2 184.0 176.9 168.7 180.5 173.3 **1977** 110 101.2 190.3 171.8 174.5 159.6 180.1 161.9 **1978** 112.2 100.7 182.9 158.1 166.2 151.2 174.5 148.9 **1979** 117.3 101 178.0 150.9 162.4 147.6 170.0 141.6 **1980** 123.4 102 174.7 147.9 157.8 144.7 168.0 138.9 **1981** 127.8 102.6 169.7 140.6 152.7 140.2 163.6 131.7 **1982** 136.1 108.1 168.9 136.6 150.6 134.6 164.2 129.5 **1983** 139.2 104.8 167.2 135.0 149.1 131.3 162.6 127.2 **1984** 142.2 108.1 165.6 139.2 147.3 137.9 161.2 129.6 **1985** 144.5 111 161.5 138.3 143.5 135.3 157.5 130.1 **1986** 147.3 112.9 160.6 127.5 140.3 124.6 158.0 122.0 **1987** 145.5 102 158.7 129.1 141.1 129.1 154.2 119.5 **1988** 145.8 113.5 155.9 134.9 138.9 134.1 151.3 126.2 **1989** 141.6 114.4 147.6 130.3 126.8 128.0 146.0 122.7 **1990** 142 114.5 143.4 128.1 123.9 126.1 141.4 120.4 **1991** 144.7 136.9 141.0 144.8 122.8 143.8 138.4 135.4 **1992** 170.7 166.8 147.0 168.8 128.4 168.2 145.1 158.7 **1993** 186.3 137.3 143.0 142.1 120.2 139.7 145.8 133.8 **1994** 181.3 157.1 143.2 170.7 123.5 171.3 143.0 158.4 **1995** 174.8 172 142.1 180.1 125.3 176.2 139.1 167.9 **1996 1997** 

# 1998 **1999 2000**  **2001 2002**  **2003 2004** 

# Central Air Conditioning

Index Year Sears

$2001 Sears

Index Index Inflation adjusted Index 26.5 1965 39 26.7 1966 39.6 26.9 **1967** 2826.3 1.00 1.00 **39.8** 26.8 1968 2036.4 41.5 27.2 1969 2350.0 42.4 28.1 1970 2182.6 45 28.9 1971 2799.7 46.3 29.1 **1972** 2383.2 0.86 0.86 46.6 29.6 1973 2599.9 46.9 29.9 1974 2200.0 50.9 30.2 1975 2264.4 56.6 30.6 **1976** 2187.5 0.78 0.78 59.7 31 1977 2201.0 62.9 31.5 1978 2214.1 75.20 234.4 66.8 32.4 **1979** 2160.0 0.76 81.00 234.7 0.76 73.8 33.4 **1980** 2363.7 0.84 88.40 230.0 0.75 83 34.8 **1981** 2368.9 0.84 93.60 214.6 0.70 92.6 36.7 **1982** 2314.9 0.82 98.00 203.7 0.66 100 38.8 **1983** 2251.4 0.80 102.00 199.7 0.65 102.9 40.5 **1984** 2537.3 0.90 103.00 195.3 0.64 107.3 41.8 **1985** 2258.5 0.80 104.40 189.8 0.62 110.6 44.4 **1986** 2533.0 0.90 105.00 184.3 0.60 112 49.3 **1987** 2002.0 0.71 104.40 179.9 0.59 112.7 53.8 **1988** 1948.6 0.69 107.70 179.1 0.58 116.4 

# Bureau of Labor Statistics Price index- Unitary

Air Conditioning GAS-FIRED FORCED-AIR FURNACES Central Air Conditioning - Retail

Prices CPI - ALL ITEMS

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

# R. Newell, Sears Catalog Data

53.8 **1988** 1948.6 0.69 107.70 179.1 0.58 116.4 56.9 **1989** 111.30 177.7 0.58 121 60.6 **1990** 114.80 174.9 0.57 131.6 65.2 **1991** 115.20 166.5 0.54 133.4 72.6 **1992** 113.60 157.6 0.51 136.4 82.4 **1993** 113.00 152.1 0.50 138.2 90.9 **1994** 113.30 148.1 0.48 138.2 96.5 **1995** 116.50 148.5 0.48 141.1 99.6 **1996** 119.60 148.2 0.48 142.2 103.9 **1997** 120.70 145.3 0.47 107.6 **1998** 123.80 145.7 0.47 109.6 **1999** 126.70 146.8 0.48 113.6 **2000** 123.70 140.3 0.46 118.3 **2001** 123.70 135.7 0.44 124 130.7 136.2 140.3 144.5 148.2 152.4 156.9 160.5

# 163

166.6 172.2 177.1 179.9 184 188.9

# Southnon-SouthMobile Home Inflation adjusted Relative to

1967 Gas HeatElec HeatElec HeatElec Heat 233.9 1.04 230.9 1.03 **225.1 1.00**  1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 225.3 1.00 218.2 0.97 219.1 0.97 216.0 0.96 210.6 0.94 0.94 0.89 0.90 0.90 199.5 0.89 195.0 0.87 198.7 0.88 198.2 0.88 0.87 0.82 0.41 0.44 196.1 0.87 193.5 0.86 192.0 0.85 0.85 0.80 0.81 0.81 190.3 0.85 0.85 0.79 0.79 0.80 192.4 0.85 0.85 0.76 0.77 0.78 195.8 0.87 0.87 0.74 0.76 0.77 195.2 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.75 0.76 195.1 0.87 0.87 0.73 0.74 0.75 194.2 0.86 0.86 0.71 0.73 0.74 193.0 0.86 0.86 0.70 0.72 0.73 187.4 0.83 0.83 0.68 0.70 0.71 185.9 0.83 0.83 0.68 0.70 0.71 Equipment Price Ratio by Housing Sector GAS-FIRED FORCED-AIR FURNACES

185.9 0.83 0.83 0.68 0.70 0.71 184.3 0.82 0.82 0.67 0.69 0.70 190.2 0.84 0.84 0.68 0.70 0.71 185.0 0.82 0.82 0.65 0.67 0.68 183.6 0.82 0.82 0.63 0.65 0.67 180.7 0.80 0.80 0.62 0.64 0.65 176.2 0.78 0.78 0.60 0.62 0.64 174.9 0.78 0.78 0.60 0.62 0.63 171.2 0.76 0.76 0.59 0.61 0.62

# 2.00

2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00**M i** **l l** **i o** **n s**  

# Gas Furnace**Shipments Components** 

New HousingInstallations CentralHeating Upgrades EfficiencyUpgrades Oil / ElectricConversions
ModeledReplacements GAMA Data



# 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00

196819731978198319881993199820032008201320182023202820332038

# 40%

50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% **Fraction Gas vs. Electric for New Households with Central Heating**

Historical

Base Case Projection

Design Option One

Design Option Two

Design Option Three



# 0% 10% 20% 30%

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Design Option Four

# -$0.10

-$0.08 -$0.06 -$0.04 -$0.02 $0.00 $0.02 $0.04 $0.06 $0.08 $0.102015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065Billionsof2001Dollars 

# Financial**Impacts of Design Option 1**

OperatingCostSavings EquipmentCost Net Savings



# Financial**Impacts of Design Option 3**

-$4.0 -$3.0 -$2.0 -$1.0 $0.0 $1.0 $2.0 $3.0 $4.02015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065Billionsof2001Dollars 

# Financial**Impacts of Design Option 3**

OperatingCostSavings EquipmentCost Net Savings

## OperatingCostSavings EquipmentCost Net Savings



# 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 

# Financial**Impacts of Design Option 4** -$0.5 -$0.4 -$0.3 -$0.2 -$0.1 $0.0 $0.1 $0.2 $0.3 $0.4 $0.52015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065Billionsof2001Dollars 

# Financial**Impacts of Design Option 2**

-$10.0 -$8.0 -$6.0 -$4.0 -$2.0 $0.0 $2.0 $4.0 $6.0 $8.0 $10.02015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065Billionsof2001Dollars 

# Financial**Impacts of Design Option 4**

OperatingCostSavings EquipmentCost

## Operating CostSavings

EquipmentCost

NetSavings

Operating CostSavings EquipmentCost

NetSavings