United States Institute of Peace • www.usip.org • Tel. 202.457.1700 • Fax. 202.429.6063

UNITED STATES INSTITUTE OF PEACE

© USIP 2013 • All rights reserved.

“The international community 

has watched the Syrian conflict 

unfold via the lens of social 

media. Our dependence on this 

lens, combined with the conspicuous absence of traditional 

news media, only reinforces the 

need for new techniques and 

tools to help us verify information 

coming out of conflict zones. ”

June 7, 2013

Social Media Reporting 

and the Syrian Civil War 

Summary

•	 The lack of traditional reporting and verifiable journalistic reports about the ongoing conflict

in Syria hasled to an increased dependence on social media as a source of news. But assessing

the veracity of these reports has proven extremely difficult, creating consistent distortions of

Syria’s on-the-ground reality.

•	 The large amounts ofsocial media data emerging from conflict zoneslike Syria and new data

analysistools have the potential to help overcome these distortions.

•	 Despite this enthusiasm, a number of conceptual and practical hurdlesremain before these

tools can create reliable predictive models of conflict dynamics.

Anand Varghese

E-mail: Avarghese1@usip.org

PEACEBRIEF151

Introduction

Syria’s civil war has been a highly social-mediated conflict, with online videos and social media

content documenting everything from early street proteststo military offensives. In addition,

journalists and international news media have had little to no accessto Syria during the conflict.

Thislack of traditional reporting and verifiable journalistic reports hasled to an increased dependence on social media as a source of news. But assessing the veracity of these reports has proven

extremely difficult. Activists have used social media channelsto expose the alleged war crimes of

the Syrian regime, while the regime and sometimes even rival rebel factions have deployed them

to make similar claims about opposition forces. This presents a range of new challengesto peacebuilders, decision-makers, researchers, and other observers. Doesthe‘social mediated’picture of

Syria largely match the realities on the ground, or isitsystematically distorted in significant ways? 

How can we overcome these distortions?

The situation in Syria standsin contrast to other Arab Spring countriessuch as Egypt and Tunisia,

where social media reports were easier to verify since they were embedded in existing social

networks and intermediaries, mostly through civilsociety and citizen journalists. In comparison,

Syria’srelatively closed civic space hasleft little opportunity for external verification of reports. In

addition, the few bloggers and citizen journalists who were operating in Syria, initially estimated at

around a dozen, have left the country.

An emerging question here is whethersocial media’s monopoly on reporting has created

consistent distortions of Syria’s on-the-ground reality. Islamist groups have been particularly vocal

on these platforms, leading to an inflated assessment of their efficacy on the ground. An ongoing

conversation on social media, and on the ground, has called for a peaceful transition and increased
© USIP 2013 • All rights reserved.

Social Media Reporting and the Syrian Civil War 

page 2 • PB 151 • June 7, 2013

freedom ofspeech. The bloody social media reports have drowned out these peaceful voices, which

many forget were the initial instigators of the movement to oust Assad. In addition, reputable online

communitiessuch as GlobalVoices(GV), who might be able to authenticate social media, have

demonstrated their own biases. Since anti-Assad voicestend to dominate the GV community, proAssad bloggers have essentially been pushed out of the community. The extreme polarization of the

conflict has allowed no‘middle ground’in reporting to emerge, even in online communities.

Despite these challenges, there has been an increased enthusiasm amongst traditional journalists

to integrate social media reportsinto their work. Preliminary resultsfrom a survey of journalists

indicate that around a quarter of them are usingYoutube videosin most of theirstories.While many

journalists have viewed this as an opportunity, they have been unable (or unwilling) to connect

directly with citizen journalists who are reporting events on social media to verify stories coming

in from Syria.Journalists often face challenges on how to credibly integrate these reportsinto

traditional reporting. There have been effortsto crowdsource the verification ofsocial media reports

through toolslike Storyful and Checkdesk. For example, the Checkdesk tool, created by Meedan,

allows a group of trusted journaliststo conduct“collaborative verification”on a piece ofsocial media

reporting, creating a cumulative picture of how trustworthy it might be. Ultimately, journalists

continue to depend on robust networks of people with whom they have developed relationships

with over decades. 

Data Analysis to the Rescue?

As placeslike Syria have shown us, the“fog of war”that once obscured our view of conflict zonesis

quickly giving way to rich information environments due to vast amounts ofsocial media data. This

information, combined with new data analysistools coming out of the private sector, might help

us gain‘ground truth’in placeslike Syria, as well for the larger task of preventing conflicts around

the world. Indeed, there has been considerable academic research into these kinds of capabilities,

ranging from analyzing tweetsto identify right-wing extremist groupsto using Youtube videos

to map relationships between the different Syrian opposition groups, as well associal media data

visualization tools and aggregation tools being developed in placeslike the Pacific Northwest

National Laboratory. Such tools would enable usersto sift through mountains of data forspecific

insightsthey are interested in tracking, often in real-time.

But much needsto be done before they can be used to create reliable predictive models of

conflict dynamics – the so-called‘holy grail’of this field. A number of conceptual and practical

hurdles need to be overcome in this area. Firstly, while much has been made of predictive analytics

like Google’s‘Flu Trends’(where global Web searchesfor cold medication were used to predict the

spread of the flu virus), we should be skeptical of the notion that these kinds of techniques can

help predict outbreaks of violent conflict. As one specialistsaid,“People’s bodies are more predictable than their behavior.”Many experts note the need for improved models of how ideasspread

around the world, and consequently, how they influence human behaviorsuch as violence.

Secondly,social media data that is currently being analyzed hasseriouslimitations. This data

breaks down into: (1) data that exists and is curated, (2) data that exists but is not curated, and (3)

data that does not exist that needsto exist. Current analysis centers on the first type of data, but

much needsto be done to close gaps around the second and third types before more comprehensive analysis can be conducted. Furthermore, much of today’ssocial media data analysis does not

take into account the inherentsampling deficienciesin social media data – after all, not all people

have accessto social media tools. Social media data cannot be representative of wider trends until

these deficiencies are addressed.
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Social Media Reporting and the Syrian Civil War 

page 3 • PB 151 • June 7, 2013

Thirdly, quantitative data analysis needsto be contextualized using qualitative research. We

need to understand how social media reports, Youtube videos and other data are intended to

contribute to narratives – national, religious, and ethnic – that are specific to cultures and societies

within which they operate. These narratives can complicate data analysis efforts, but they add

nuance to our insights.

Finally,some in the private sector point out the practical limitationsthat plague social media data

analysis efforts. For example, while private sector companies are often happy to provide datasets

to researchers, most researchers do not have the data processing infrastructure necessary to derive

value from them. The challenge isfor researchersto use datasetsthat are big enough to be useful,

butsmall enough to be processed. Further, very few protocols exist around the transfer of data from

private sector companiesto researchers. Researchers currently use largely ad hoc protocols, often

relying on existing relationships with social media companies or working from within those companiesto conduct their research.With growing concerns amongst users around the privacy of their

data,social media companies are working to define these protocols. Importantly, these companies

are displaying an eagernessto work with researchers and activiststo help define these policies.

Conclusion

The international community has watched the Syrian conflict unfold via the lens ofsocial media.Our

dependence on thislens, combined with the conspicuous absence of traditional news media, only

reinforcesthe need for new techniques and toolsto help us verify information coming out of conflict

zones. There have been considerable stridesin using social media data to sift the proverbial wheat

from the chaff in thisregard, but we remain in early days. The need is clear for improved analytical

models, datasets, and data analysisinfrastructure to further this goal, till we can have truly precise

and predictive data analysistools.

About This Brief

This Peace Brief is based on an 

experts’ meeting co-hosted by 

USIP’s Center of Innovation for 

Science, Technology & Peace

building as part of its ongoing Blogs 

& Bullets initiative. Held at Stanford 

University on April 17th, 2013, 

the workshop used the ongoing 

conflict in Syria as a focal point to 

discuss the increasingly prevalent 

distortions in social media reports 

emerging from conflict zones.The 

meeting examined how new data 

flows and analytical tools can be 

used to address these issues and 

other broader challenges in the 

peacebuilding field. The author, 

Anand Varghese, is a senior 

program specialist in USIP’s 

Center of Innovation for Science, 

Technology & Peacebuilding.