THE U.S. PHASEOUT OF HCFCS: 

PROJECTED SERVICING NEEDS IN THE U.S. 

AIR-CONDITIONING AND REFRIGERATION SECTOR 

Prepared for 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

Office of Air and Radiation 

Stratospheric Protection Division 

1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW 

Washington, DC 20460 

Prepared by 

ICF International 

1725 Eye Street, NW 

Washington, DC 20006 

REVISED DRAFT REPORT, SEPTEMBER 2006
This report presents estimates of the projected quantity of HCFC-22 needed to 

service air-conditioning and refrigeration equipment and the anticipated installed 

base of such equipment beyond 2010 in the United States. The objective of this 

analysis is to provide a resource to assist in the allocation of future HCFC 

consumption caps. The analyses presented in this report have been revised 

based on input received in response to a Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 70 

FR 67172) and request for comment issued on November 4, 2005. 

Questions concerning this report should be directed to: 

Cindy Newberg 

Stratospheric Protection Division 

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 

1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (6205J) 

Washington, D.C. 20460 

1-202-343-9729 (phone) 

1-202-343-2338 (fax) 

newberg.cindy@epa.gov 
Contents 

Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................1 

1. Background: The U.S. HCFC Phaseout Schedule.............................................................................4

1.1 Report Objective ..........................................................................................................................5 

2. Methodology Overview ........................................................................................................................6 

3. Current HCFC Use in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Equipment............................................7

3.1 Air-Conditioning End-Uses ..........................................................................................................7

3.2 Refrigeration End-Uses ...............................................................................................................8

3.3 HCFC Refrigerants ......................................................................................................................9

3.3.1 HCFC-22 ...............................................................................................................................10

3.3.2 HCFC-142b ...........................................................................................................................10

3.3.3 HCFC-123 .............................................................................................................................11

3.3.4 HCFC-124 .............................................................................................................................11

3.3.5 HCFC Refrigerant Blends......................................................................................................12

4. Projected R-22 Scenarios ..................................................................................................................13

4.1 R-22 Equipment Used Beyond 2010.........................................................................................13

4.2 Projected R-22 Servicing Needs ...............................................................................................13

4.2.1 R-22 Sources.........................................................................................................................14

4.2.2 Meeting R-22 Service Demand .............................................................................................16

4.3 Factors Affecting Projections.....................................................................................................20

4.3.1 13 Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (SEER).......................................................................20

4.3.2 Transitioning to Alternative Refrigerants ...............................................................................20

4.3.3 Recovery and Reuse Practices.............................................................................................22

4.3.4 Recycling and Stockpiling Plans ...........................................................................................23

4.3.5 R-22 Economics ....................................................................................................................23

4.3.6 Pre-charged Imports..............................................................................................................24 

5. Conclusion ..........................................................................................................................................26 

Appendix A: Methodology Used to Calculate Projected Servicing Needs .........................................28

A.1 EPA’s Vintaging Model ..............................................................................................................28

A.2 Supplemental Analysis: Pre-charged Imports ...........................................................................34

A.3 Limitations and Caveats ............................................................................................................34 

Appendix B: HCFC Projections by End-Use ..........................................................................................36

B.1 R-22 Equipment and Servicing Demand by End-Use ...............................................................36

B.2 Other HCFC Refrigerants Projected by End-Use......................................................................37 

References.................................................................................................................................................38
Executive Summary 

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) are a class of chemical compounds that deplete the stratospheric 

ozone layer, leading to overexposure of ultraviolet (UV) radiation at the earth’s surface. Excessive UV 

radiation damages biological systems and causes malignant melanoma and other skin cancers, 

cataracts, and harm to certain crops and marine organisms. Reversing the course of ozone depletion is 

crucial to human and environmental health worldwide. As a Party to the Montreal Protocol, the United 

States is subject to a cap on the consumption of HCFCs—defined as production1

 plus imports minus 

exports—in an international effort to protect the stratospheric ozone layer (UNEP 2000). Specifically, the 

United States is obligated to phaseout consumption of HCFCs by 2030 by making graduated reductions 

in HCFC consumption by certain dates. In order to meet these interim reduction targets, the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began by establishing a schedule for the phaseout of HCFCs 

with the highest ozone depletion potentials (ODPs), namely HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, and HCFC-22. 

The next phaseout milestone occurs on January 1, 2010, when the production and import of HCFC-142b 

and HCFC-22 (unless for use in equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 2010) will cease. Under the 

restrictions, between 2010 and 2020, both the production and import of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 are 

still permitted to service existing equipment. 

In the United States and worldwide, the primary use of HCFC-22 is as a refrigerant, whereas, the primary 

use of HCFC-142b is as a blowing agent in the foam industry (UNEP 2003a). While HCFC-142b is also 

blended with other constituents to form refrigerant blends, its use in the U.S. air-conditioning (AC) and 

refrigeration industry is minimal, and therefore servicing demand for R-142b,2

 if any, is not presented in 

this analysis. Estimated consumption of R-22 in the U.S. air-conditioning (AC) and refrigeration industry 

currently totals approximately 114,900 metric tons and is by far the largest use of an HCFC by any U.S. 

industry (EPA 2006a). For this reason, and because the allowable servicing of existing equipment 

between 2010 and 2020 is applicable primarily to the AC and refrigeration industry, this report presents 

estimates of the projected quantity of R-22 needed to service AC and refrigeration equipment and the 

anticipated installed base of such equipment beyond 2010. In quantifying future servicing needs and 

evaluating how these needs can be met, the objective of this analysis is to provide a resource to assist in 

the allocation of future consumption caps. 

This report examines the primary sources of R-22 to service equipment after 2010, including (1) the 

amounts recovered from equipment that are subsequently recycled or reclaimed and (2) the virgin 

production and import quantities (i.e., consumption) limited under the Montreal Protocol and distributed by 

EPA through an allowance system.3

 Two servicing demand scenarios were analyzed that differ by the 

quantity of R-22 recovered from equipment at the end-of-life and available to service other equipment still 

in use. Scenario 1 assumes that 50 percent of refrigerant is recovered and available for reuse, while 

Scenario 2 assumes only 10 percent of refrigerant is recovered and available for reuse. 

Figures ES-1a and ES-2a summarize the two servicing demand scenarios in comparison to two 

theoretical allocations of the U.S. HCFC consumption cap in 2010 and 2015: in the first allocation, it is 

assumed that 100 percent of the HCFC cap will be assigned to R-22; in the second, only a portion (i.e., 

90 percent) is assigned to R-22, with the remainder set aside to allocate to other HCFCs. As shown in 

both potential consumption cap allocations and in both servicing demand scenarios, total projected R-22 

servicing demand is estimated to exceed the consumption cap starting in 2015, and therefore, the use of 

recovered refrigerant will be necessary to avoid R-22 supply shortages. Scenario 1, which represents a 

recovery and reuse rate of 50 percent of all available refrigerant (Figure ES-1a), projects that sufficient 

supplies of recovered refrigerant will be available, while Scenario 2, which assumes a lower recovery and 

reuse rate of 10 percent (Figure ES-1b), projects insufficient supplies of recovered refrigerant. 

 

1

 Under the Montreal Protocol, production is defined as “the amount of controlled substances produced, minus the amount 

destroyed...and minus the amount entirely used as feedstock in the manufacture of other chemicals. The amount recycled and 

reused is not to be considered as production” (UNEP 2000). 2

 The nomenclature ‘R’ is typically used to designate chemical compounds used as a refrigerant. Hence, R-22 is synonymous with 

the use of HCFC-22 as a refrigerant, R-142b with the use of HCFC-142b as a refrigerant, etc. 

3

 The import of used R-22 as approved by EPA is another source; however, this source is not included in the projections of this 

analysis.

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 1 September 2006
Figure ES-1a: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 1a,b

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

2010

HCFC-22 (MT)

100,000

Anticipated R-22 Supply from Recovered R-22 

Virgin R-22 Needed to Satisfy Service Demand 

Total R-22 Service Demand 

90% of U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

2015 2020

Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_6-30-06_ALL)

a Potential consumption cap allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 

for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption cap remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining cap to R-22. 

Figure ES-1b: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 2a, b 

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2010

HCFC-22 (MT)

Anticipated R-22 Supply from Recovered R-22 

Virgin R-22 Needed to Satisfy Service Demand 

Total R-22 Service Demand 

90% of U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

2015 2020

Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_6-30-06_ALL)

a Potential consumption cap allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 

for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption cap remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining cap to R-22. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 2 September 2006
Under the future scenarios developed in this analysis, the AC and refrigeration industry is potentially 

facing shortage risks starting in 2015 if enough refrigerant is not recovered and reused.4

 However, under 

a scenario with higher refrigerant recovery, supplies are projected to satisfy future R-22 servicing needs 

using both recovered refrigerant and limited amounts of virgin refrigerant. Therefore, encouraging the 

adoption of practices that recover the highest possible quantity of used refrigerant from converted or 

retired equipment to be put back into the supply chain is necessary to avoid R-22 supply shortfalls within 

the AC and refrigeration industry. 

In addition to recovery practices, several other factors also influence which R-22 projection scenario is 

more likely. For example, with approximately 150 million AC and refrigeration units projected to be in use 

in 2010, the sooner this equipment transitions to alternative refrigerants, the better the chance for a more 

balanced R-22 supply and demand forecast. This report explores the following other market trends and 

how they may influence future R-22 servicing demand and available supply estimates: 

• Changes in equipment charge sizes to accommodate the 13 SEER energy standard; 

• Rate of market transition to alternative refrigerants in the United States; 

• R-22 cost; 

• Assumed equipment leak and servicing loss rates; 

• Levels of refrigerant recovery for reuse, reclamation, and/or banking; 

• Levels of imports of used R-22; and 

• Levels of imports of pre-charged R-22 equipment. 

The analysis presented in this report uses EPA’s Vintaging Model (EPA 2006a) in conjunction with 

industry collaboration to inform the quantitative estimates on projected servicing needs. The factors listed 

above influence supply and demand and are addressed in the quantitative analysis with the exception of 

R-22 cost and refrigerant banking. 

The projected scenarios highlighted in this analysis provide a basis for further collaboration with the AC 

and refrigeration community to maximize supplies (through reuse) in order to continue to service 

equipment as the U.S. achieves the next HCFC phaseout targets.

 

4

 Recovered refrigerant may be reused in the same owner’s equipment; however, if the refrigerant will be used in equipment with 

different ownership or sold to a new owner, it must first be reclaimed by an EPA-certified refrigerant reclaimer. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 3 September 2006
1. Background: The U.S. HCFC Phaseout Schedule 

Title VI of the Clean Air Act (CAA) mandates the development and implementation of regulations to 

protect the stratospheric ozone layer and ensure U.S. compliance with the Montreal Protocol on 

Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (the Protocol). Under the Protocol, the United States and other 

signatories are obligated to achieve progress toward the total phaseout of the consumption and 

production of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), which are ozone-depleting substances (ODS) and have 

been widely used as refrigerants, solvents, foam blowing agents, and fire extinguishants.5

 Consumption 

is defined as production plus imports minus exports; production is defined as the manufacture of a 

controlled substance minus amounts destroyed and amounts completely used as feedstock in the 

manufacture of other chemicals and does not include amounts reused or recycled (UNEP 2000). 

Table 1-1 presents the HCFC consumption cap and the graduated reductions to allowable HCFC 

consumption for the United States (and all non-Article 56

 countries), as determined for compliance with 

the Protocol. The first HCFC phaseout milestone was in 1996, when HCFC consumption levels were 

capped at 1989 ozone-depletion potential (ODP)-weighted HCFC consumption levels plus 2.8 percent of 

the ODP-weighted 1989 CFC consumption. The second phaseout milestone occurred on January 1, 

2004, when HCFC consumption limits were reduced by 35 percent of the above cap, which is to be 

followed by a 65 percent reduction in 2010, a 90 percent reduction in 2015, a 99.5 percent reduction in 

2020, and a complete phaseout in 2030. 

Table 1-1: U.S. HCFC Consumption Phaseout Targets Under the Montreal Protocol 

Date Consumption Cap ODP Weighted Quantity Quantity Expressed in 

R-22 Metric Tonsa 

Jan 1, 1996 

Consumption freeze capped at 2.8% of the 1989 

ODP-weighted CFC consumption plus 100% of 

the 1989 ODP-weighted HCFC consumption 

15,240 ODP-metric tonsb 277,091 metric tons 

Jan 1, 2004 35% reduction of the cap 9,906 ODP-metric tons 180,109 metric tons 

Jan 1, 2010 65% reduction of the cap 5,334 ODP-metric tons 96,982 metric tons 

Jan 1, 2015 90% reduction of the cap 1,524 ODP-metric tons 27,709 metric tons 

Jan 1, 2020 99.5% reduction of the cap 76.2 ODP-metric tons 0 metric tonsc 

Jan 1, 2030 100% reduction of the cap 0 ODP-metric tons 0 metric tons aCalculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22. 

bAn ODP-metric ton takes into account each ODS’ relative contribution to ozone depletion. Note: one metric ton equals approximately 2,204 

pounds.

c

In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption cap remains, but the U.S. phaseout schedule prevents any allocation of the cap to R-22. 

Table 1-2 details the U.S. phaseout schedule for HCFCs established under the CAA to comply with the 

targets set by the Montreal Protocol (as presented in Table 1-1). As shown, the production and import of 

HCFC-141b, the HCFC with the highest ODP, was banned with limited exemptions beginning January 1, 

2003. Also beginning in 2003, an allowance system was established to control the U.S. production and 

consumption (including import and export) of HCFCs and to apportion consumption amongst HCFCs. An 

allowance is the privilege for the allowance holder to produce and/or import a quantity on an annual basis 

limited to the allowance granted. Production and consumption allowances for HCFC-141b (for the limited 

exemptions), HCFC-22, and HCFC-142b were authorized and distributed (on a kilogram basis) to certain 

chemical manufacturing companies (EPA 2003a).7

 Therefore, as of 2003, only those companies with 

allowances were allowed to produce and/or import these HCFCs. 

 

5

 The production and import of other ODS used by these industries, including chlorofluorocarbons, carbon tetrachloride, and methyl 

chloroform, were phased out in 1996 – halons in 1994 (with limited exemptions). 

6

 Article 5 countries, primarily developing countries identified in the Montreal Protocol, are on a later schedule for phasing out ODS. 7

 The production of one kilogram of HCFC requires the expenditure of one production allowance and one consumption allowance. 

The import of one kilogram of HCFC requires the expenditure of one consumption allowance. While the import of used HCFCs does 

not require the expenditure of allowances, it does require petition approval by EPA; see Section 4.2.1 for more detail. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 4 September 2006
Table 1-2: U.S. HCFC Phaseout Schedule Mandated Under the CAA (to Comply with the Protocol) 

Date Affected Substance(s) Restriction 

Jan 1, 2003 HCFC-141b • No production and no import of HCFC-141b 

Jan 1, 2010 HCFC-142b, HCFC-22 • No production and no import of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22, except for 

on-going servicing needs in equipment manufactured before 1/1/2010 

Jan 1, 2015 HCFC-142b, HCFC-22 

and All Other HCFCs 

• No production and no import of all other HCFCs, except for on-going 

servicing needs in equipment manufactured before 1/1/2020 

• No sale and use of all HCFCs except (1) for use in chemical reactions 

where the HCFCs are completely used up in the process; (2) 

reclaimed and recycled HCFCs; or (3) for on-going servicing needs in 

refrigerant equipment manufactured before 1/1/2020 

Jan 1, 2020 HCFC-142b, HCFC-22 • No production and no import of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 

Jan 1, 2030 All Other HCFCs • No production and no import of any HCFCs 

Source: EPA (2003a) 

To meet the next phaseout milestone beginning January 1, 2010, U.S. production and import of HCFC142b and HCFC-22 (unless for use in equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 2010) will cease. The 

phaseout for all other HCFCs, such as HCFC-123, begins on January 1, 2015, when U.S. production and 

import is restricted except for use as a refrigerant in equipment manufactured before January 1, 2020. 

The final phase out for all HCFCs occurs on January 1, 2030. Production and consumption allowances 

for all other HCFCs must still be granted under the allowance system; additionally, the U.S. 

Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) will re-evaluate HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b allocation levels prior 

to 2010 and issue allowances at a level that will be suitable solely for the required servicing needs.

1.1 Report Objective 

The objective of this report is to present quantitative estimates of the projected amount of (a) units of 

equipment using HCFCs beyond 2010 and (b) HCFCs needed to service equipment beyond 2010. In an 

effort to prepare for the next phaseout scheduled for the United States, this report presents possible 

future scenarios on the servicing needs for air-conditioning (AC) and refrigeration equipment that will be 

in use after 2010. These estimates will aid EPA in allocating future HCFC consumption caps. 

This analysis focuses solely on post-2010 R-22 servicing needs in the AC and refrigeration industry, the 

largest HCFC market and the largest industry sector using HCFCs in the United States. Projections of 

post 2010 HCFC-142b servicing needs are expected to be marginal and therefore are not explored in this 

analysis. The largest industry sector using HCFC-142b is the U.S. foam industry, which uses HCFCs to 

create foam products; furthermore, while HCFC-142b refrigerant blends are approved as acceptable 

substitutes for CFC refrigerants in some end-uses, the modeling used in this analysis does not project 

any R-142b servicing demand beyond 2010 for the AC and refrigeration industry. 

The remainder of the report is organized as follows: 

• Section 2 provides a brief overview of the methodology used in this analysis to project servicing 

scenarios. A further discussion on the methodologies can be found in Appendix A. 

• Section 3 provides an overview of the AC and refrigeration industry and presents current 

consumption and servicing estimates for all HCFCs used in this sector. 

• Section 4 provides projected scenarios for units of R-22 equipment and R-22 servicing needs. 

• Section 5 summarizes the key findings of the analysis. 

• Appendix A presents the projection methodology and the associated limitations. 

• Appendix B provides AC and refrigeration projections by end-use. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 5 September 2006
2. Methodology Overview 

The main tool used to launch the analysis and form the basis for quantitative estimates of current and 

projected HCFC consumption was EPA’s Vintaging Model. The Vintaging Model estimates the annual 

chemical emissions from industry sectors that have historically used ODS, including AC, refrigeration, 

foams, solvents, aerosols, and fire protection. Within these industry sectors, there are over 50 

independently modeled end-uses. The model uses information on the market size and growth for each of 

the end-uses, as well as a history and projections of the market transition from ODS to alternatives. As 

ODS are phased out, a percentage of the market share originally filled by the ODS is allocated to each of 

its substitutes. The model tracks emissions of annual “vintages” of new equipment that enter into 

operation by incorporating information on estimates of the quantity of equipment or products sold, 

serviced, and retired each year, and the quantity of the chemical required to manufacture and/or maintain 

the equipment. EPA’s Vintaging Model makes use of this market information to build an annual inventory 

of in-use stocks of equipment and the ODS refrigerant and non-ODS substitutes in each of the end-uses. 

As an initial step in this analysis of current and projected HCFC use in the United States, an investigation 

was conducted into the entire HCFC market, covering all end-uses that utilize HCFCs in the AC and 

refrigeration, foam, solvents, aerosols, and fire protection sectors. This analysis was conducted by 

compiling estimates from the 2005 version of EPA’s Vintaging Model on HCFC consumption for both new 

manufacturing and the servicing of existing equipment, and the total units of equipment containing 

HCFCs from 2005 through 2030 by end-use (EPA 2005a). The Vintaging Model data indicated that in 

2005, the AC and refrigeration industry represented 96 percent of total HCFC-22 consumption and 86 

percent of total HCFC consumption.8

 Therefore, this analysis was narrowed to focus on R-22 servicing 

needs in the AC and refrigeration industry. 

Having established initial estimates, a limited number of industry experts were then contacted to 

corroborate the findings and market dynamics affecting the servicing needs of the AC and refrigeration 

industry after 2010. Representatives including those from the Association of Home Appliance 

Manufacturers (AHAM); Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Institute (ARI); Carrier Corporation; Heating, 

Air-Conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI); Hill Phoenix; Honeywell; a member of 

the Food Marketing Institute; and York were contacted to discuss stationary AC and refrigeration enduses.9

 The informal discussions were used to confirm or modify preliminary estimates obtained from 

EPA’s Vintaging Model; information gathered from the discussions was in turn used to refine assumptions 

and inputs in the Model to improve the estimates provided in this analysis. 

On November 4, 2005, EPA made the preliminary draft version of this report available for comment in a 

Notice of Data Availability (NODA, 70 FR 67172). EPA received five comments, copies of which are 

available at EPA’s electronic docket (EDocket ID number, OAR-2003-0130, Dupont 2005a, National 

Refrigerants, Inc. 2006, Honeywell 2006, The Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy 2006, CFC 

Refimax 2006). Among the comments received, two commenters stated that the overall projected 

demand of R-22 to service AC and refrigeration equipment is reasonable; however, all commenters 

expressed concern regarding the projections of the supply of recovered/reclaimed R-22 that can satisfy 

future demand. One commenter indicated that the existing business model for R-22 recovery does not 

encourage the conservation efforts required to meet the scenario presented in the preliminary draft report, 

nor would the current collection and processing infrastructure support projections of the recovered supply. 

In response, additional analysis was conducted using EPA’s Vintaging Model to test whether demand 

might exceed supply under some circumstances. Appendix A includes a discussion of the assumptions 

used to develop the supply and demand estimates presented in this report and the limitations and 

caveats inherent in the analysis. 

 

8

 The recently updated Vintaging Model indicates that the AC and refrigeration industry represents 98 percent of total HCFC-22 

consumption and 89 percent of total HCFC consumption (EPA 2006a). 

9

 In order to comply with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995, fewer than ten people were contacted regarding each information 

category (44 U.S.C. 3502(3)).

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 6 September 2006
3. Current HCFC Use in Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration 

Equipment 

The AC and refrigeration industry encompasses a wide variety of equipment and employs a diversity of 

HCFC and other refrigerants. This section is organized as follows: 

• Sections 3.1 and 3.2 present an overview of AC and refrigeration end-uses, respectively; and 

• Section 3.3 provides an overview of HCFC refrigerants used in the AC and refrigeration industry. 

3.1 Air-Conditioning End-Uses 

AC equipment can be categorized as either mobile or stationary. These broad end-use categories are 

discussed further below and outlined in Figure 3-1. 

Mobile air-conditioning systems include all forms of AC that provide cooling to passenger 

compartments in all types of moving vehicles. This category can be further broken down into motor 

vehicle air-conditioning and other mobile air-conditioning systems. 

• Motor vehicle air-conditioning (MVAC) includes AC in the passenger compartments of light duty 

vehicles – both cars and trucks (i.e., pick-up trucks, minivans, sport utility vehicles, etc.). A 

variety of refrigerant blends, many of them including HCFCs, are approved for use in the United 

States by EPA as replacements for R-12 in MVACs. However, these blends have not been 

endorsed by vehicle or system manufacturers for such use, thereby capturing only a small and 

declining share of the retrofit market, which consists mainly of R-134a. Therefore, the MVAC 

sector is not discussed further in this analysis. 

• Other mobile air-conditioning includes AC in the passenger compartments of both buses 

(including school, transit, and tour buses) and trains (including heavy, light, and commuter rail, 

and Amtrak trains).10 Although school bus AC systems converted directly from R-12 to R-134a, 

the majority of transit buses, tour buses, and trains continue to use R-22 in their AC systems 

(Sartin Services 2005; Motorcoach Training 2005; WMATA 2005; Amtrak 2005; NJ Transit 2005). 

Stationary air-conditioning includes a wide variety of equipment, further categorized into the following 

six end-uses. 

• Unitary air-conditioners and heat pumps include both split systems and packaged units and are 

designed for air circulating, cooling, cleaning, and dehumidifying in residential and small and 

large commercial applications. 

• Chillers regulate the temperature and humidity in offices, hotels, shopping centers, and other 

large buildings. There are four major types of chillers—centrifugal, scroll, reciprocating, and 

screw—each of which is named for the type of compressor employed. Often, standard AC 

systems, such as chillers, are customized to be used for industrial applications. Modifications are 

made to customize the equipment for unusual circumstances (e.g., protection from flammability, 

high temperatures, or for outdoor use). 

• Dehumidifiers are mechanical refrigeration systems designed to remove moisture from the air by 

drawing air first over cold evaporator coils and then warm condenser coils, causing the moisture 

in the air to condense onto the cold coils. Examples include indoor pool dehumidifiers and 

portable units used to dehumidify basements. 

• Water and ground source heat pumps use fluid circulated in a common piping loop as a heat 

source/sink to cool and heat air. Water-source heat pumps typically use water pumped from a 

well, lake, or stream as a heat source/sink. Direct expansion geothermal heat pumps circulate 

refrigerant through piping in the earth. 

 

10 For the purposes of this report, “other mobile AC” does not include ships, planes, RVs, or construction/farm equipment. In the 

case of boats, some R-22 is used in AC systems (UNEP 2003a), but this consumption is accounted for in this report under 

stationary AC equipment, such as packaged terminal units or chillers (Cold Ships 2005). 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 7 September 2006
• Window units, also known as room air-conditioners, are small appliances used to condition the air 

in a single room. 

• Packaged terminal units are ACs or heat pumps that are mounted on the wall. They are often 

used in hotel rooms, dormitories, or classrooms. 

Air-Conditioning (AC) Equipment

Motor Vehicle 

AC

Stationary Air-Conditioning

Unitary AC and Chillers

Heat Pumps

Water and

Ground Source 

Heat Pumps 

Dehumidifiers

Residential Small 

Commercial 

Large 

Commercial 

Other Mobile 

AC

Mobile Air-Conditioning

Window Units

Packaged 

Terminal AC and 

Heat Pumps 

Figure 3-1: Types of Air-Conditioning Systemsa 

aThe shaded end-use (MVACs) is assumed to not use HCFC refrigerants; double boxed end-uses are those for which supply and demand

projections are estimated in this report. 

3.2 Refrigeration End-Uses 

Refrigeration equipment can be broken down into four categories: domestic refrigeration, refrigerated 

transport, industrial process refrigeration, and commercial refrigeration. These categories are described 

further below and outlined in Figure 3-2. 

Domestic refrigeration includes household refrigerators, household freezers, combination 

refrigerator/freezer units, and water coolers. For the majority of these equipment types, the refrigerants 

used do not typically include HCFCs or blends containing HCFCs. Older household freezers sometimes 

employed R-22; however, because these units are viewed as a minor part of the domestic refrigeration 

market, this end-use is not further analyzed in this report. 

Refrigerated transport includes refrigeration used in equipment that moves products from one place to 

another and includes refrigerated ship holds, truck trailers (i.e., reefer trucks), railway freight cars, and 

other shipping containers. 

Industrial process refrigeration (IPR) systems are complex, customized systems used to cool process 

streams in the chemical, food processing, pharmaceutical, petrochemical, and manufacturing industries. 

This sector also includes industrial ice machines, equipment used directly in the generation of electricity, 

and ice rinks. 

Commercial refrigeration can be further broken down into three end-uses: 

• Cold storage warehouses are refrigeration systems with varying designs and charge sizes. They 

are used to store meat, produce, dairy products, and other perishable goods before and after 

food processing. 

• Retail food systems are used to refrigerate food in commercial retail establishments, such as 

grocery stores. These systems can be classified as either centralized or self-contained units. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 8 September 2006
Centralized retail food systems, also known as remote systems, consist of a series of 

compressors and condensers located in a remote machinery room, providing a cooling medium to 

display cabinets and cold storage rooms in other parts of the building. The most common form of 

centralized systems circulate refrigerant throughout the store. Alternatives to these types of 

systems include secondary loop and distributed systems using HFC refrigerant blends. Selfcontained retail food units, also referred to as stand-alone systems, are factory produced with all 

the components integrated. Examples include walk-in refrigerators/coolers/freezers, roll-in 

refrigerators/freezers, under-counter refrigerators/freezers, reach-in refrigerators/freezers, wine 

and beer coolers, ice cream machines, beverage vending machines, and a variety of stand-alone 

upright or horizontal display cases (e.g., beverage merchandisers, deli cases). 

• Ice makers are factory-made units used in commercial establishments to produce ice for 

consumer use (e.g., in hotels, restaurants, and convenience stores). Ice makers are not further 

analyzed in this report because they do not typically employ HCFCs or blends containing HCFCs. 

Figure 3-2: Types of Refrigeration Systemsa

Refrigeration Equipment 

Domestic Refrigeration Refrigerated 

Transport

Industrial 

Process 

Refrigeration

Commercial 

Refrigeration 

Cold 

Storage 

Ice 

Makers 

Retail

Food 

Household 

Refrigerators 

Household 

Freezers 

Water 

Coolers 

aShaded areas are assumed to not use HCFC refrigerants; double boxed end-uses are those for which supply and demand projections are 

estimated in this report. 

3.3 HCFC Refrigerants 

Historically, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were extensively used as refrigerants in the AC and refrigeration 

industry; by the 1970s, R-22 and R-502 (a blend of CFC-115 and R-22) were also well established 

refrigerants. On January 1, 1996, the production and import of CFC refrigerants, classified as Class I 

controlled [ozone-depleting] substances under the CAA Amendments of 1990, were phased out in the 

U.S. and other industrialized countries. HCFC refrigerants, which also deplete the ozone layer and are 

classified as Class II controlled [ozone-depleting] substances under the CAA, were approved as 

substitutes for the controlled CFCs. Table 3-1 lists the Class II ODS used as refrigerants (or components 

of refrigerant blends), in descending order according to their ODP.11 Table 3-1 also lists the phaseout 

schedule for consumption of Class II substances in both new and existing AC and refrigeration 

equipment, as required under the CAA. 

 

11 An ODP value is a measure of a chemical’s relative ability to deplete ozone. A reference level of 1.0 is assigned to CFC-11. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 9 September 2006
Table 3-1: Class II ODS Used as Refrigerants

Consumption Phaseout

(Starting Jan. 1) Class II ODS CAS 

Number 

Atmospheric 

Lifetime (years) ODPa

New 

Equipment 

Existing 

Equipment 

HCFC-142b (CH3CF2Cl)b 75-68-3 17.9 0.065 2010 2020 

HCFC-22 (CHF2Cl) 75-45-6 12.0 0.055 2010 2020 

HCFC-124 (CF3CHFCl) 2837-89-0 5.8 0.022 2020 2030 

HCFC-123 (CHCl2CF3) 306-83-2 1.3 0.02 2020 2030 aODP values are taken from the Montreal Protocol (UNEP 2003b). 

bHCFC-142b is formulated into refrigerant blends; however, these blends have an insignificant market share in the AC and refrigeration 

industry (ICF Consulting 2005; UNEP 2003a).

The remainder of Section 3.3 provides current estimates of the HCFCs and blends containing HCFCs 

consumed as refrigerants. 

3.3.1 HCFC-22 

HCFC-22, also known as R-22, was first commercialized as a refrigerant in the 1930s and has been used 

continuously since that time (UNEP 2003a; Dupont 2005b; Calm and Domanski 2004). R-22 is the most 

common HCFC refrigerant used in AC and refrigeration applications. 

Potential non-ODS candidates to replace R-22 vary by application and include HFC-134a, R-404A 

(composed of HFC-125/HFC-143a/HFC-134a), R-407C (composed of HFC-32/HFC-125/HFC-134a), R410A (composed of HFC-32/HFC-125) and R-507A (composed of HFC-125/HFC-143a). 

Table 3-2 presents current estimates of R-22 consumption and the estimated percent of that consumption 

that is used to service AC and refrigeration equipment. These estimates were developed based on data 

from EPA’s Vintaging Model and information provided by industry contacts (EPA 2006a). Appendix A 

explains the methodology used to develop these estimates and disaggregates servicing estimates by 

equipment type. As shown in Table 3-2, current estimated consumption of R-22 for both AC and 

refrigeration equipment totals approximately 114,900 metric tons. Approximately 66 percent of this 

consumption is for servicing existing equipment, with the refrigeration industry using a higher percentage 

of its total consumption to service equipment than the AC industry. The majority of R-22 consumption for 

servicing is currently attributed to residential and small commercial unitary AC equipment and retail food 

refrigeration equipment (see Appendix B). 

Table 3-2: Summary of U.S. R-22 Consumption (2005)a

Equipment Type 

Total Consumption for New 

Manufacturing and Servicing 

(Metric Tons) 

Consumption for 

Servicing 

(Metric Tons) 

% of Total 

Consumption for 

Servicing 

Total AC 73,600 43,300 59% 

Total Refrigeration 41,300 33,100 80% 

Total 114,900 76,400 66% aQuantities of R-22 from blends containing R-22 are factored into these estimates. See Section 3.3.5 for a 

discussion of blends containing HCFCs. 

Since R-22 represents the largest HCFC market in the United States, the projected servicing needs 

presented in Section 4 focus solely on the use of R-22 and blends containing HCFC-22 in the U.S. AC 

and refrigeration industry. 

3.3.2 HCFC-142b 

HCFC-142b, also known as R-142b, is not used as a stand-alone refrigerant but as a constituent of a few 

ASHRAE-designated refrigerant blends including R-409A (composed of HCFC-22/HCFC-124/HCFCDraft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 10 September 2006
142b) and R-406A (composed of HCFC-22/isobutane[R-600a]/HCFC 142b). Although the phaseout 

schedule for HCFC-142b is the same as that for HCFC-22, current research indicates that other 

refrigerants are used in the large majority of AC and refrigeration equipment, indicating that blends using 

R-142b are not commonly used (UNEP 2003a, ICF Consulting 2005, EPA 2006a). Therefore, projected 

R-142b servicing needs, if any, are not explored in this analysis. 

3.3.3 HCFC-123 

HCFC-123, also known as R-123, is primarily used as a refrigerant in centrifugal chillers for commercial 

comfort AC and in industrial process refrigeration. R-123 is the second most commonly used HCFC 

refrigerant (after R-22), with current overall consumption totaling around 2,000 metric tons—equivalent to 

about two percent of R-22 consumption. As Table 3-3 indicates, the majority of R-123 is used in AC 

equipment, specifically for chillers. 

The estimates presented in Table 3-3 are drawn directly from the Vintaging Model (EPA 2006a). The 

production and import of virgin HCFC-123 is scheduled for phaseout in 2020 for use in new AC and 

refrigeration equipment and in 2030 for use in existing AC and refrigeration equipment.12 Because this 

phaseout occurs later than HCFC-22, servicing needs for HCFC-123 are not explored further in this 

analysis. 

Table 3-3: Summary of R-123 Consumption (2005) 

Equipment Type 

Total Consumption for 

New Manufacturing and 

Servicing (Metric Tons) 

Consumption 

for Servicing 

(Metric Tons) 

% of Total 

Consumption for 

Servicing 

Total AC 1,400 500 36% 

Total Refrigeration 600 <50 9% 

Total 2,000 500 25% 

3.3.4 HCFC-124 

HCFC-124, also known as R-124, is used in blends (mainly R-401A), in industrial process and transport 

refrigeration equipment. As Table 3-4 shows, in 2005, total consumption of R-124 (used in blends) was 

estimated to be less than 50 metric tons, all of which was for servicing refrigeration equipment. 

The estimates presented in Table 3-4 are taken directly from the Vintaging Model (EPA 2006a). The 

production and import of virgin HCFC-124 is scheduled for phaseout in 2020 for use in new AC and 

refrigeration equipment and in 2030 for use in existing AC and refrigeration equipment.13 Because this 

phaseout occurs later than HCFC-22, servicing needs for HCFC-124 are not explored further in this 

analysis. 

 

12 In 2015, HCFC-123 production and import will be phased out for all non-refrigerant uses. 13 In 2015, HCFC-124 production and import will be phased out for all non-refrigerant uses.

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 11 September 2006
Table 3-4: Summary of R-124 Consumption (2005)a

Equipment Type 

Total Consumption for 

New Manufacturing and 

Servicing (Metric Tons) 

Consumption 

for Servicing 

(Metric Tons) 

% of Total 

Consumption for 

Servicing 

Total AC 0 0 NA 

Total Refrigeration <50 <50 100% 

Total <50 <50 100% aThese estimates represent quantities of R-124 from blends containing R-124. See Section 3.3.5 for a 

discussion of blends containing HCFCs. 

3.3.5 HCFC Refrigerant Blends 

Often refrigerants are formulated with several HCFCs and other substances, such as hydrofluorocarbons 

(HFCs) or hydrocarbons (e.g., propane, butane, isobutane). HCFC-22 is used as both a stand-alone 

refrigerant and a component of blends. When used in blends, HCFC-124 is used in combination with 

HCFC-22. HCFC-142b is also typically used with HCFC-22 to formulate refrigerant blends, with the 

exception of some blends designed to replace R-12 in motor vehicle air conditioning. Table 3-5 presents 

the composition of the more common refrigerant blends containing HCFCs.14 

Table 3-5: Compositions of Common HCFC Refrigerant Blends 

Blend R-22 R-124 Other 

R-401A 53% 34% 13% R-152a 

R-402A 38% 60% R-125, 2% propane (R-290) 

R-502 48.8% 51.2% CFC-115 

Table 3-6 presents the end-uses in which these refrigerant blends containing HCFCs are currently used. 

Table 3-6: Common Uses of HCFC-Containing 

Refrigerant Blends by End-Use

Refrigerant Type Refrigeration Equipment Type R-401A R-402A R-502

Retail Food x x 

Cold Storage x 

IPR x 

Refrigerated Transport x x x 

 

14 HCFC consumption data presented in this analysis include quantities consumed in blends by employing the percent composition 

of the corresponding HCFC constituent(s) of that blend. In order to accurately portray the number of units containing HCFC blends, 

however, blends are not disaggregated when presenting the number of units of equipment (i.e., a unit running on an HCFCcontaining blend counts as one unit). 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 12 September 2006
4. Projected R-22 Scenarios 

Section 4 presents projections of the number of R-22-containing units of equipment and the associated 

servicing needs for 2010, 2015, and 2020. R-22 scenarios were developed by investigating various 

trends that are expected to affect future market needs. Such trends include changes in charge sizes, the 

transition to alternative refrigerants, changes in refrigerant recovery and reuse practices, R-22 

economics, and potential imports of pre-charged equipment. 

The remainder of this section is organized as follows: 

• Section 4.1 summarizes the projected market size of R-22 containing equipment beyond 2010 in 

the United States. 

• Section 4.2 provides projected estimates of the quantity of both virgin (i.e., consumption as 

defined under the Montreal Protocol) and recovered R-22 that will be required to service existing 

equipment beyond 2010. 

• Section 4.3 discusses the factors that may affect estimates of the installed base and servicing 

needs for R-22 equipment. 

Appendix B presents further detail on the estimates provided in Section 4, disaggregating R-22 containing 

equipment and overall service demand estimates into end-use specific projections. 

4.1 R-22 Equipment Used Beyond 2010 

The majority of R-22 equipment that is projected to be in use (i.e., within the installed base) from 2010 

onward will be used for AC applications, including window units, packaged terminal units, residential and 

commercial unitary AC, chillers, dehumidifiers, water and ground source heat pumps, and non-light duty 

mobile AC in buses, trains, etc. As presented in Table 4-1, it is estimated that approximately 147.5 

million units of all such types of AC equipment will be in use in 2010, decreasing by about 41 percent by 

2015, and 76 percent by 2020. It is projected that in 2010 there will be approximately 2.2 million units of 

refrigeration equipment, including retail food, industrial process refrigeration, and transport refrigeration 

equipment (but not including cold storage warehouses). The installed base is projected to decrease by 

about 29 percent by 2015 and 51 percent by 2020. These estimates were developed based on EPA’s 

Vintaging Model, which takes into account recent input received from industry representatives for this and 

other analyses (EPA 2006a). Appendix A provides more detail on the methodology used to develop 

these projections. Appendix B provides projections disaggregated by end-use. 

Table 4-1: Projected Number of R-22 Units (2010-2020)a,b

Equipment Type 2010 2015 2020 

Total AC 147,455,700 86,517,700 20,419,100 

Total Refrigeration 2,204,100 1,561,000 768,600 

Total 149,659,800 88,078,700 21,187,700 a Including units that use blends containing HCFC-22.

b Because the estimates for cold storage warehouses are expressed in cubic feet, this 

equipment type is not included in this table. The projected stock of cold storage warehouse 

cubic feet is 231 million ft3 in 2010, 133 million ft3 in 2015, and 61 million ft3 in 2020. 

4.2 Projected R-22 Servicing Needs 

AC and refrigeration equipment commonly require servicing, which may include the need to add 

refrigerant to account for refrigerant losses that occur over time.15 While the production and import of 

HCFC-22 is banned for use in new equipment in 2010, the limited production and import of HCFC-22 will 

still be permitted for servicing and maintenance purposes for equipment manufactured prior to January 1, 

 

15 The servicing need estimates projected in this analysis include refrigerant to replace quantities that leak from operating equipment 

as well as de minimis losses that may occur while servicing operating equipment. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 13 September 2006
2010. Table 4-2 presents projected R-22 demand (including that used in blends) for servicing equipment 

in 2010, 2015, and 2020. These estimates were developed based on EPA’s Vintaging Model, which 

takes into account recent industry input (EPA 2006a). Appendix A provides further detail on the 

methodology used to develop these projections. Appendix B provides servicing demand projections 

disaggregated by end-use. 

As presented in Table 4-2, it is projected that in 2010, approximately 68,600 metric tons of R-22 will be 

required to service AC and refrigeration equipment, of which the majority—41,400 metric tons (60%)—will 

be used to service AC systems. In 2015, servicing demand is projected to reach approximately 43,200 

metric tons of R-22 for AC and refrigeration equipment, and in 2020, the projected quantity declines to 

20,600 metric tons. Both the 2015 and 2020 projections of servicing demand exceed the U.S. 

consumption cap for virgin HCFCs for these years; however, a portion of the servicing needs can be met 

by using recovered refrigerant, thus decreasing the need for virgin R-22. 

Table 4-2: Projected R-22 Servicing Demand (2010-2020) (Metric Tons) 

Equipment Type 2010 2015 2020 

Total AC 41,400 26,800 12,100 

Total Refrigeration 27,200 16,400 8,500 

Total 68,600 43,200 20,600 

Figure 4-1 displays the breakdown of R-22 servicing demand by AC and refrigeration equipment type for 

2010 and 2015. As shown, residential AC, retail food refrigeration equipment, and small commercial AC 

are projected to account for the majority of the R-22 demand in 2010 and in 2015. 

Figure 4-1: R-22 Demand for Servicing Equipment, by End-Use 

Small 

Commercial

AC

21%

Residential AC

32%

Large 

Commercial

AC

4%

Retail Food

20% Chillers

6%

IPR

17%

2015

Total Consumption for Servicing: 43,200 MT

Large 

Commercial A

4%

IPR

13% Chillers

4%

Small 

Commercial AC

21%

Cold Storage

1%

Residential AC

31%

Retail Food

26%

2010

Total Consumption for Servicing: 68,600 MT

Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_6-30-06_ALL)

4.2.1 R-22 Sources 

Only existing sources of R-22 and a controlled quantity of virgin R-22 (limited through allowance 

allocations distributed by EPA until 2020) are available to the AC and refrigeration industry to meet 

servicing demand starting in 2010.16 Existing sources of R-22, which can offset the need for virgin R-22, 

include: 

 

16 Virgin R-22 may be stockpiled; however, the extent to which this activity may occur is unknown. A discussion on stockpiling plans 

is covered in Section 4.3.3. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 14 September 2006
1. Recovered (i.e., recycled or reclaimed) R-22. Under the current codified regulations (EPA 

2004a), refrigerants containing HCFCs must be recovered. After the recovery process, the 

refrigerant held in the storage container may be: 

a. Recycled (i.e., cleaned through the use of recycling equipment) and recharged back into 

the equipment from which it came; 

b. Recycled and used in other equipment of the same owner; 

c. Reclaimed (shipped to an EPA-certified reclaimer) prior to resale to a new owner; or 

d. Destroyed through the use of environmentally-acceptable technologies approved in 40 

CFR §82.3 (i.e., liquid injection incineration, reactor cracking, gaseous/fume oxidation, 

rotary kiln incineration, cement kilns, and radio frequency plasma) (EPA 2003b). 

2. Import of used R-22 that companies can acquire, if the import is preauthorized by EPA, through 

a petition process. 

Each of these existing sources of R-22 is described in more detail below. 

Recycled R-22 

The recycling process cleans the refrigerant for reuse without meeting all the requirements of 

reclamation, discussed further below. HCFC refrigerants are commonly recovered from a piece of 

equipment, adequately cleaned, and then recharged into the same piece of equipment using a recycling 

device (EPA 2003b). 

EPA regulations allow for the recharge of used refrigerant without subsequent reclamation for refrigerants 

recovered and charged back into the same appliance17 or to another appliance if those appliances are 

owned by the same establishment.18 Several companies, such as supermarket chains, employ recycling 

plans through which the refrigerant is recovered when dismantling one establishment’s equipment and 

reused to service equipment at another facility with like ownership. 

Reclaimed R-22 

Refrigerants that are resold to be used in other equipment must be reclaimed to a standard level of purity 

based on the ARI Standard 700, to ensure sufficient purity of the reclaimed refrigerant. Refrigerant 

reclaimers process recovered refrigerant and send samples of the purified refrigerant off-site for purity 

verification through testing required by the ARI 700 Standard. 

Industry representatives have indicated that the current use of reclaimed HCFCs is minimal because 

virgin R-22 is inexpensive. In 2004, the amount of pure R-22 reclaimed by EPA-certified reclaimers 

totaled approximately 3,280 metric tons, or 7.23 million pounds (EPA 2006b). Fewer quantities of the 

refrigerant blend R-502, composed of 48.8 percent R-22 and 51.2 percent CFC-115, are also being 

reclaimed, with only 48 metric tons, or 105,536 pounds reported for 2004 (EPA 2006b).19 Reclamation 

data from 2000 to 2003 is presented in Table 4-3 below. 

Table 4-3: Reclaimed R-22 by Year (Metric Tons)a

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 

R-22 3,218 1,960 2,230 1,976 3,280 

R-502 281 113 150 41 48 aSource: EPA 2006b.

As 2010 approaches, the price of R-22 will likely increase, and it is expected that the reclamation of R-22 

will also increase (Powell 2004). Industry representatives are already reporting market signals indicating 

that several U.S. companies are expecting an eventual surge in R-22 reclamation (Powell 2004; CFC 

 

17 Appliance is defined in EPA regulations at 40 CFR §82.152 as any device which contains and uses a refrigerant. Hence, its 

reference is not limited to household “appliances.” 

18 If refrigerant changes ownership, however, that refrigerant must be reclaimed. 19 Feedback received from stakeholders in response to the NODA indicated that because R-22 is a component of the R-502 

azeotropic blend, the ability to separate R-22 from the blend is difficult, expensive, and very limited (National Refrigerants 2006).

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 15 September 2006
Refimax 2006). Where there is a monetary incentive, distributors are more likely to collect refrigerant and 

pass it on to reclaimers (HARDI 2005). A more detailed discussion on R-22 economics is provided in 

Section 4.3, “Factors Affecting Projections.” 

Imports of Used R-22 

Unlike virgin HCFCs, there are no Montreal Protocol restrictions on the consumption of used controlled 

substances.20 However, in creating the allocation system for the use of HCFCs, EPA developed a 

shipment-by-shipment petition process for importing used HCFCs as described in 40 CFR §82.24 (EPA 

2003a). The petition process ensures that HCFCs are used (and not newly produced) prior to import. 

For each shipment of used HCFC greater than five pounds, the importer needs to petition EPA to import 

at least 40 working days before the shipment is to leave the country of export. EPA reviews and verifies 

data in the petition and issues a notice to the importer either permitting or not permitting the import to 

occur. 

Currently, the quantity of used R-22 imports is minimal. The projections in this report do not include the 

potential future quantities obtained from the import of used R-22; however, this source of used material 

can offset future demand for virgin production provided that a lack of domestically available used R-22 

justifies the need to undergo the strict permit process. 

4.2.2 Meeting R-22 Service Demand 

Although limited virgin manufacture of HCFC-22 will be allowed to service equipment until 2020 through 

production and consumption allowances, the analysis performed for this report indicates that, with 

industry effort, a large portion of the demand for HCFC-22 for servicing can be met with previously used 

refrigerant that is recovered and then recycled or reclaimed. Recovered R-22 is a source that is made 

available as a result of the venting prohibition EPA has established under Section 608 of the CAA of 1990 

(EPA 2004a). In order to determine the potential amounts of used refrigerant available to service 

equipment, two theoretical scenarios were developed using EPA’s Vintaging Model to estimate: 1) the 

projected amount of recovered R-22 potentially available to meet projected servicing demand of other 

equipment still in use; 2) the subsequent remaining quantity needed to satisfy the rest of that demand; 

and 3) the extent to which the remaining demand can be met with allowable quantities of virgin R-22 

production. 

In developing the scenarios using EPA’s Vintaging Model, the projected amount of recovered R-22 is 

estimated based on the quantity available from end-of-life equipment. While refrigerant recovered from 

equipment during servicing activities can also be available for reuse in other equipment, this potential 

source is not included in these scenarios as it is projected to be minimal. According to industry sources, 

refrigerant recovered during service events primarily originates from commercial and industrial equipment; 

refrigerant is rarely recovered during the servicing of small equipment in the residential sector because 

these units tend not to be overcharged or leaking (Home Energy Center 2006, Airgas 2006). Additionally, 

only a small portion of all servicing events conducted on commercial and industrial equipment involve the 

refrigerant circuit, and when recovering refrigerant to perform repairs is necessary, only a section of the 

refrigerant charge is isolated and recovered, not the entire charge. 

To estimate refrigerant recovery and reuse, it is assumed that a certain percentage of refrigerant, which 

varies by scenario, is recovered from discarded equipment.21 While EPA has regulations in place 

prohibiting intentional venting, for the purposes of this analysis, it is appropriate to create scenarios that 

could imply less compliance with the regulations. It is then assumed that the entire pool of recovered 

refrigerant re-enters the market (see Appendix A for more details) and hence off-sets the demand for 

virgin R-22 production. The two scenarios investigated can be summarized as follows: 

 

20 “Used controlled substances” are controlled substances that have been recovered from their intended use systems (which may 

include controlled substances that have been, or may be subsequently, recycled or reclaimed) (EPA 2003a). 21 The Vintaging Model assumes equipment contains a full charge at disposal and does not take into account a) refrigerant 

destroyed after equipment is decommissioned or b) any stockpiling of recovered refrigerant beyond a one-year timeframe. See 

Appendix A for further details.

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 16 September 2006
• Scenario 1 assumes that by 2010, 50 percent of refrigerant from retired equipment is 

recovered and re-enters the pool of refrigerant available to meet demand (i.e., a 50 percent 

recovery rate). The remaining 50 percent is not available for reuse. 

• Scenario 2 assumes that by 2010, 10 percent of refrigerant from retired equipment is 

recovered and reused in equipment (i.e., a 10 percent recovery rate). The remaining 90 

percent is not available for reuse. 

Table 4-4 provides the estimated percentages of the R-22 supply that would be needed to meet demand 

through (a) recovered refrigerant (i.e., recycled or reclaimed) and (b) new (i.e., virgin) refrigerant. 

Table 4-4: Projected R-22 Supply Needed to Meet 

Demand by Source (Metric Tons)

Scenario Source 2010 2015 2020 

Scenario 1: Recovered 27% 52% 100% 

50% Recovery Rate Virgin 73% 48% 0% 

Scenario 2: Recovered 5% 10% 21% 

10% Recovery Rate Virgin 95% 90% 79% 

As presented, there is a significant range between the two scenarios with regard to the percent of R-22 

servicing demand that is projected to be needed from virgin manufacture. For example, in 2020, 

Scenario 2—representing minimal refrigerant recovery at equipment disposal—results in a projected need 

for virgin refrigerant to fully meet the projected servicing demand. Such consumption is a legal 

impossibility under the Clean Air Act, as it would put the U.S. out of compliance with the Montreal 

Protocol, which calls for consumption of HCFCs to drop to 0.5% of the cap beginning in 2020. 

Table 4-5 and Table 4-6 summarize the two recovery scenarios in comparison to two U.S. HCFC 

consumption cap allocations: in the first allocation, it is assumed that 100 percent of the HCFC cap in 

2010 and 2015 will be assigned to R-22; in the second, only a portion (i.e., 90 percent) is assigned to R22 in 2010 and 2015, with the remainder set aside for allocation to other HCFCs. The first recovery 

scenario, which represents a recovery rate of 50 percent, is summarized in Table 4-5. As shown in both 

potential consumption cap allocations, a significant portion of the consumption cap remains available in 

2010 beyond the quantity required to satisfy the projected R-22 servicing demand. Additionally, Table 4-5

indicates that in 2015 through 2020 (and beyond), the use of recovered refrigerant will be necessary to 

avoid R-22 shortfalls; however, projections indicate that sufficient supplies of recovered refrigerant would 

be available under a 50% recovery rate scenario. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 17 September 2006
Table 4-5: Scenario 1: 50% Recovery Rate: 

Summary of Projected R-22 Supply, Demand, and Surplus (R-22 Metric Tons)

2010 2015 2020 

Projected R-22 Servicing Demand Summary 

Total R-22 servicing demand 68,600 43,400 20,500 

Anticipated R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 18,500 22,600 20,500 

Estimated virgin R-22 supply needed to satisfy remaining demand 50,100 20,900 0 

Potential HCFC Consumption Cap Allocations 

Allocate Full HCFC Cap to R-22 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capa 96,982 27,709 0b

Estimated virgin R-22 supply needed to satisfy remaining demand 50,100 20,900 0 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under cap 46,882 6,809 0 

Allocate 90% of HCFC Cap to R-22 

Virgin R-22 supply available under cap 87,284 24,938 0b

Estimated virgin R-22 supply needed to satisfy remaining demand 50,100 20,900 0 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under cap 37,184 4,038 0 a Expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption cap remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any allocation 

of the remaining cap to R-22.

Table 4-6 summarizes the projections under the second recovery scenario that assumes practices that 

yield a lower recovery rate of 10 percent. These projections are also compared to two potential U.S. 

HCFC consumption cap allocations. As shown, in both cap allocations, the estimated virgin R-22 supply 

needed in 2010 can be adequately met with a portion of the HCFC consumption cap remaining. 

However, in 2015 and 2020, the quantity of recovered R-22 projected under this scenario plus the amount 

of virgin R-22 production allowable under the cap is not adequate to meet the projected servicing 

demand, consequently leading to R-22 supply shortfalls. 

 

Table 4-6: Scenario 2: 10% Recovery Rate: 

Summary of Projected R-22 Supply, Demand, and Shortfall (R-22 Metric Tons)a 

2010 2015 2020 

Projected R-22 Servicing Demand Summary 

Total R-22 servicing demand 68,600 43,400 20,500 

Anticipated R-22 supplied from recovery/reuse 3,700 4,500 4,400 

Estimated virgin R-22 supply needed to satisfy remaining demand 64,900 38,900 16,200 

Potential HCFC Consumption Cap Allocations 

Allocate Full HCFC Cap to R-22 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capb 96,982 27,709 0c

Estimated virgin R-22 supply needed to satisfy remaining demand 64,900 38,900 16,200 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under cap 32,082 -11,191 -16,200 

Allocate 90% of HCFC Cap to R-22 

Virgin R-22 supply available under capb 87,284 24,938 0c

Estimated virgin R-22 supply needed to satisfy remaining demand 64,900 38,900 16,200 

Additional virgin R-22 allowable under cap 22,384 -13,962 -16,200 a Negative values represent a shortfall of R-22 available under the consumption cap and are in bold. 

b Expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 for HCFC-22). 

c In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption cap remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any allocation of the

remaining cap to R-22.

Figures 4-2a and 4-2b further demonstrate the significant variability in the projected supply of recovered 

refrigerant available to meet demand resulting from the two recovery scenarios. Depending on the 

recovery practice employed, the potential exists for either a surplus or shortfall to occur in 2015 (Scenario 

1 and 2, respectively) and the potential for a shortfall in 2020 (Scenario 2). 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 18 September 2006
Figure 4-2a: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 1a,b

 

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2010

HCFC-22 (MT)

Anticipated R-22 Supply from Recovered R-22 

Virgin R-22 Needed to Satisfy Service Demand 

Total R-22 Service Demand 

90% of U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

2015 2020

Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_6-30-06_ALL)

a Potential consumption cap allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 

for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption cap remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining cap to R-22. 

Figure 4-2b: Total Projected R-22 Servicing Demand, Recovery Scenario 2a, b 

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2010

HCFC-22 (MT)

Anticipated R-22 Supply from Recovered R-22 

Virgin R-22 Needed to Satisfy Service Demand 

Total R-22 Service Demand 

90% of U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

U.S. HCFC Consumption Cap

2015 2020

Source: EPA's Vintaging Model (VM IO file_6-30-06_ALL)

a Potential consumption cap allocations expressed in R-22 un-weighted metric tons (calculated using an ODP of 0.055 

for HCFC-22). 

b In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption cap remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any 

allocation of the remaining cap to R-22. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 19 September 2006
As the market prepares for the phaseout, it is critical to ensure that recovered R-22 is recycled, 

stockpiled, or reclaimed to maximize available R-22 supply and avoid the risk of potential shortages. 

Increased reuse of R-22 will be needed to satisfy future servicing needs that cannot be met through virgin 

supplies alone. It is projected that the minimum amount of recovered R-22 needed to meet servicing 

demand must be approximately 18,500 metric tons in 2010, followed by 22,600 metric tons in 2015 and 

20,500 metric tons in 2020 (i.e., Scenario 1). For comparison, as noted in Table 4-3, in 2004 a total of 

3,280 metric tons of HCFC-22 was reclaimed, which amounts to approximately three percent of total 

HCFC-22 consumption in 2004 (according to data from EPA’s ODS Tracking System). (The amount of 

refrigerant recovered, recycled and reused without being reclaimed is not known.) If the 2004 level of 

reclamation remains constant, reclaimed R-22 would fulfill only 18 percent of the supply of R-22 from 

recovered refrigerant projected to be required under Scenario 1 in 2010, dropping to approximately 15 

percent in 2015 and 2020. A further discussion on recovery practices is provided in Section 4.3.3. 

4.3 Factors Affecting Projections 

Several market dynamics will have an effect on the projections of future servicing needs for R-22. Certain 

equipment specification requirements, the transition to alternative refrigerants, the stockpiling of 

refrigerant as well as equipment manufactured with HCFCs for sale after the phaseout, and the import of 

equipment pre-charged with HCFC refrigerant can all potentially alter the projected servicing scenarios. 

Each of these issues is discussed further below. 

4.3.1 13 Seasonal Energy Efficiency Ratio (SEER) 

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) published a rule in January 2001 setting a stricter seasonal 

energy efficiency ratio (SEER) standard for residential unitary ACs and heat pumps. The minimum 

efficiency standard of residential unitary ACs and heat pumps was raised by 30 percent to a 13 SEER for 

all such units manufactured for sale on or after January 23, 2006 (DOE 2001; DOE 2004). 

According to industry representatives, residential AC equipment will generally require a larger charge size 

to meet this standard because efficiency improvements are often achieved by increasing the size of the 

evaporator and condenser, which in turn requires an increase in refrigerant charge (Powell 2004; 

Honeywell 2005; ARI 2005; Carrier Corporation 2005a). It is not expected that these changes will affect 

equipment lifetime, leak rates, or the frequency of servicing (ARI 2005). The average central AC unit sold 

in 2004 was approximately 11.5 SEER, with an average charge size of around 3.4 kilograms (7.5 pounds) 

(ARI 2005).22 In 2006, the charge size for central ACs is expected to have increased by approximately 30 

to 50 percent (to approximately 4.4 to 5.1 kilograms [9.7 to 11.2 pounds]) because of the changes to the 

energy efficiency standards (Carrier Corporation 2005a). 

 

Consequently, the amount of R-22 contained in new residential AC systems starting in 2006 will increase, 

resulting in an increase in projected servicing demand (assuming that service and leak losses, as a 

percentage of the equipment charge, do not change as a result). The projections provided in this analysis 

incorporate the additional R-22 that is expected to be needed to service higher efficiency residential AC 

equipment after 2010 (see Appendix A for more details). 

4.3.2 Transitioning to Alternative Refrigerants 

A wide range of alternative refrigerants approved under EPA’s Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) 

program are available in the AC and refrigeration sector. R-134a, R-410A, R-407C, R-404A, and R-507A 

are currently used in a variety of refrigeration and AC sectors. The pace of transition to equipment 

production with these alternatives has varied by industry and type of equipment. Several AC and 

refrigeration equipment manufacturers have indicated that they will completely phaseout the production of 

equipment that uses R-22 prior to 2010 (York 2005; Hill Phoenix 2005). These plans are consistent with 

the actions found in the mid-1990s, when the refrigeration and AC industry phased out CFC refrigerants 

 

22 Typical factory charges for cooling only equipment are around three kilograms (6.6 pounds); however, the average unit 

considered accounts for heat pumps, which have a higher charge size and make up between 15 to 25 percent of the residential AC 

and heat pump market (ARI 2005; Carrier Corporation 2005a). 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 20 September 2006
from new production chillers, refrigerators, motor vehicle air conditioners and other products two or more 

years before the 1996 CFC consumption phaseout. However, recent industry research has indicated that 

the majority of the equipment manufacturers will delay HCFC transitions until absolutely necessary, with 

R-22 charged equipment produced until January 1, 2010. In projecting servicing needs, this analysis 

accounts for delayed transition trends, discussed in further detail below. Additionally, Appendix A 

contains the specific transitions used in the modeling for this analysis. 

Air-Conditioning Industry 

R-134a, R-410A, and R-407C are currently being used to replace R-22 in some new stationary and 

mobile AC equipment, a trend that is expected to continue as R-22 is phased out. Some mobile AC 

equipment have been using alternatives since the early 1990s, with some buses and trains using R-134a, 

and some heavy rail cars using R-407C (WMATA 2005; Amtrak 2005; Motorcoach Training 2005; 

Greyhound 2005; Carrier Corporation 2005b). Stationary AC equipment using R-410A has been 

commercially available since 1996 (HARDI 2004), and is expected to dominate the U.S. residential 

market in the future (EPA 2004b). Some industry representatives have indicated that the change to 13 

SEER for residential ACs and heat pumps in 2006 will accelerate the rate of conversions to R-410A, with 

the production of residential equipment using R-410A possibly surpassing new equipment charged with 

R-22 between 2006 and 2007 (Powell 2004). 

Nonetheless, the transition to alternatives for AC equipment is beginning slowly. Despite the availability 

of alternatives, more than 90 percent of new AC systems sold in 2004 were still charged with R-22 (RTOC 

2003; Honeywell 2005). AC equipment manufacturers indicated that, while the transition to buying 

commercial equipment that uses alternatives will occur in the next few years, consumers will continue to 

buy residential equipment that uses R-22 until the phaseout date, especially if R-22 remains cheaper than 

the alternatives (York 2005). To be conservative, the projections in this analysis are based on slower 

transitions to alternatives, modeled such that only 10 percent of the market adopts alternatives by the end 

of 2008 and the remainder of the market transitions completely by the end of 2009 (see Appendix A for 

more details). A more quickly paced adoption of alternatives by the AC-manufacturer and end-user 

community will have the effect of lowering the overall servicing demand of R-22 charged equipment post2010 and lessen the risk of potential shortfalls as projected in Scenario 2 of this analysis. Because 

consumers of residential AC equipment may not be as informed about the phaseout as commercial 

consumers, equipment manufacturers and dealers can encourage the transition away from R-22 by 

communicating to consumers the implications of the HCFC phaseout. 

Refrigeration Industry 

Industry experts have indicated that retail food refrigeration end-uses will transition to alternatives more 

quickly than AC end-uses; the projections in this analysis are based on modeling that reflects this 

industry’s input. Currently, the majority of existing U.S. supermarkets use R-22 in their refrigeration 

systems, with only a few supermarket chains having converted existing stores to use ODS alternatives 

(Hill Phoenix 2005; FMI 2004).23 Although the life expectancy of commercial refrigeration equipment is 

around 20 years, supermarkets tend to remodel every seven to 10 years, which offers supermarkets the 

opportunity to install new equipment that uses an alternative more often than the typical equipment 

lifetime would imply (Hill Phoenix 2005). For the next five to 10 years, it is anticipated that approximately 

200 to 300 stores per year will transition away from R-22 in the United States (Honeywell 2005). 

In new supermarket construction, the transition away from HCFCs is occurring more quickly. Currently, 

about 65 percent of new stores being constructed are using ODS alternatives—a trend that is growing 

and expected to continue over time (Hill Phoenix 2005). 

 

23 For example, 56 percent of supermarket refrigeration systems were using R-22 in 2001 within the South Coast Air Quality 

Management District (SCAQMD), a four county region with a population of 15 million people in southern California (Bivens and 

Gage 2004). As of 2004, one supermarket chain with over 100 stores reported only 28 percent R-22 out of their entire refrigerant 

use (FMI 2004). 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 21 September 2006
4.3.3 Recovery and Reuse Practices 

As indicated in the total projected R-22 servicing demand scenarios presented in Section 4.2, recovered 

R-22 that is recycled, stockpiled, or reclaimed must increase to satisfy future servicing needs that cannot 

be met through virgin supplies alone. According to the projections of this analysis: 

• In 2010, the amount of recovered refrigerant is projected to range from 3,700 to 18,500 metric tons, 

depending on the percentage of total available refrigerant from retired equipment that is recovered 

and reused; 

• In 2015, when no more than 27,709 metric tons of virgin R-22 production and import is allowed under 

the cap, overall servicing demand is estimated to reach 43,400 metric tons, therefore requiring at 

least 15,690 metric tons of recovered R-22. Scenario 1 projects sufficient amounts of recovered 

material (i.e., 22,600 metric tons) to meet this demand, whereas, the projected quantity under 

Scenario 2 (the minimal recovery scenario) does not (i.e., 4,500 metric tons, or, approximately 70 

percent lower than needed to prevent a shortfall). 

• In 2020, Scenario 1 projects sufficient supplies of recovered R-22 to meet projected 2020 servicing 

demand (i.e., 20,500 metric tons). Conversely, the estimated projection of 4,400 metric tons of 

recovered R-22 under Scenario 2 (the minimal recovery scenario) will not be enough to meet total 

projected demand, as no virgin manufacture is allowed under the cap. 

Although the potential for supply shortages is projected to occur after 2010, thorough maintenance 

practices during the lifetime of equipment, recovery practices at the time of equipment disposal, and the 

full penetration of reclaim and reuse practices can greatly reduce the likelihood of future shortfalls. 

The use of recovery procedures during the lifetime of equipment and at the time of decommissioning 

reduces potential losses to a future supply of recovered refrigerant. End-users of AC and refrigeration 

equipment must have equipment installed by trained technicians. They must also have their equipment 

properly maintained in order to reduce incidences of major leaks. Service technicians must take efforts to 

isolate components or recover refrigerants prior to service as venting (releasing) any refrigerant when 

making repairs is illegal. Furthermore, service practices that involve locating and repairing leaks in lieu of 

“topping off” leaking systems further ensure future supplies of used refrigerant. As with servicing 

procedures, the venting of refrigerant during decommissioning is illegal. The AC and refrigerant 

community, including end-users, service technicians, and all affected stakeholders, must position itself for 

future phaseouts of HCFCs by using proper recovery techniques and complying with regulations that are 

in place to promote the growth of recoverable and reusable R-22. 

Furthermore, the practice of reusing recovered and reclaimed R-22, while currently minimal (only 3,280 

metric tons of HCFC-22 was reclaimed in 2004), can increase future supplies once fully realized. Should 

current reclamation levels of R-22 remain constant or not increase significantly, a sufficient supply of 

reusable refrigerant will not be available to meet servicing demand projections. In order to reach the 

projected supply of recovered refrigerant necessary to meet demand, a six to seven-fold increase in 

current (as of 2004) reclamation levels would be required.24 Recent industry information indicates the 

current business model for R-22 reclamation and related infrastructure will not support this projected 

demand (Honeywell 2006). However, as prices for virgin R-22 increase and reclaimers increase their 

capacity in anticipation of the future reclamation market, the reclamation market is expected to grow (CFC 

Refimax 2006). With the potential for an imbalance in future supply and demand, this type of growth in 

this market is an essential component in the AC and refrigeration industry strategy to prepare for the 

HCFC phaseout. 

 

24 This increase assumes that the demand projected by the Vintaging Model would be met solely by reclaimed refrigerant. Sources 

other than reclaimed refrigerant could also meet this demand, including recovery, recycling and direct reuse of refrigerant in the 

owner’s equipment (without reclamation), stockpiled refrigerant, and potential supply of refrigerant from used imports. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 22 September 2006
4.3.4 Recycling and Stockpiling Plans 

As a preparation strategy for the 2010 phaseout, refrigerant recycling plans could evolve into banking or 

stockpiling plans. With proper storage tanks, a reserve of recycled R-22 can be collected, stored, and 

accessed to service equipment owned by the same company years later, when R-22 is expected to be 

less affordable and less available. A report released in 1995 by the Food Marketing Institute (FMI) 

included a survey issued to supermarket operators on the use of refrigerant management plans (RMP) as 

a strategy to ensure an adequate supply of CFC refrigerants for use after the December 31, 1995 CFC 

production phaseout (FMI 1995). Of those surveyed, 52 percent were banking recovered CFC 

refrigerant, an activity adopted primarily by store operators with 11 or more stores (FMI 1995). 

Although the extent to which such refrigerant management plans for HCFCs are currently in place is 

unknown, it is possible that the AC and refrigeration industry will increasingly adopt such plans and bank 

refrigerant in preparation for the HCFC phaseout, especially those that own a large number of stores. In 

addition to supermarkets, businesses that operate chillers, industrial process refrigeration, and central 

AC, as well as large operations, also have the opportunity to internally bank refrigerant to meet future 

servicing needs. 

While refrigerant banking is a strategy that companies may pursue, the lack of data has limited the 

projections in this report from quantifying stockpiles from refrigerant management plans. The banking of 

refrigerant may impact the results of this analysis by impacting future availability of recovered and 

reusable refrigerant. Stockpiling refrigerant ensures additional supply for a given user for later years; 

however, a large end-user stockpiling R-22, which may otherwise re-enter the market after being 

reclaimed, could result in the premature shortage of reusable refrigerant for other R-22 users (see 

Appendix A for more information). 

Stockpiling of virgin R-22 also may be pursued, particularly prior to 2020 when production is entirely 

phased out; however, it is premature to state the extent to which this option will be technically and 

economically viable. As such, projections on future inventories of virgin stockpiles are not explored 

further in this analysis. 

4.3.5 R-22 Economics 

Another factor that affects the projections of R-22 servicing supply and demand is the cost of virgin and 

reclaimed R-22. The relatively lower cost of virgin R-22 is currently weakening the demand for reclaimed 

refrigerant, which is subsequently more expensive. Over time, as the supply of virgin R-22 decreases, it 

is expected that the demand for recovered and reclaimed refrigerant as well as R-22 alternatives will 

increase. To that end, reclaimers and manufacturers of R-22 alternatives will experience economies of 

scale and their prices will fall, causing a shift in pricing structures. However, spot shortages of R-22 may 

occur, as was seen with the phaseout of CFC-12. 

Recent industry information indicates that R-22 is relatively less available in 2006, most likely in part 

because of the change to 13 SEER. As a result, recent price increases have been observed (CFC 

Refimax 2006). Early market signals, such as this one, will likely encourage an increase in the demand 

for recovered R-22 and the transition to alternative refrigerants. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 23 September 2006
4.3.6 Pre-charged Imports 

AC equipment pre-charged with HCFCs is currently imported into the United States predominantly from 

Korea, Brazil, and China. In recent years, there has been a shift to overseas manufacturing; the number 

of imports of AC equipment into the United States more than doubled between 2001 and 2003 

(Honeywell 2005; UNEP 2003a). For example, the current demand for room ACs, such as window units, 

through-the-wall, split, and mini-split systems, which predominately use R-22 (some new units are also 

being charged with R-407C and R-410A), is being met almost entirely through foreign manufacture 

(AHAM 2005). Central AC systems from foreign manufacturers such as Samsung, LG, and HAIER are 

also entering the U.S. market. Additionally, some U.S. manufacturers are starting to relocate plants to 

Mexico and other countries (Honeywell 2005), while others import equipment from international 

manufacturers that is then sold under their labels (HARDI 2005). 

To project the impact of pre-charged imports on future servicing demand for R-22 equipment, servicing 

estimates were calculated assuming that pre-charged imports will continue to enter the U.S. market after 

2010. Projected estimates of pre-charged imports were developed through a scenario using EPA’s 

Vintaging Model that assumed the entire window unit and dehumidifier market and a small portion of the 

residential unitary AC and packaged terminal unit market will be imported and will continue to use R-22 

after 2010. Further details regarding the assumptions used to project imports are provided in Appendix A. 

Given the assumptions used, Table 4-7 and Table 4-8 show the breakdown of equipment types 

containing R-22 that are assumed to enter the U.S. market from 2010 to 2020 and the associated 

servicing needs that will result from these imports. The projected estimates of units of pre-charged 

imports in Table 4-6 are in addition to the total projected estimates of units of equipment presented in 

Section 4.1. 

Table 4-7: Projected Units of Imported Pre-charged R-22 Equipment 

Air-Conditioning Equipment Type 2010 2015 2020 

Window Units 9,572,800 12,217,600 15,593,200 

Dehumidifiers 3,762,100 3,857,100 3,954,500 

Packaged Terminal Units 28,000 31,700 35,900 

Residential Unitary AC 314,900 345,900 380,100 

Total 13,677,800 16,452,300 19,963,700 

The projected servicing estimates for imports presented in Table 4-8 are in addition to the total projected 

servicing estimates presented in Section 4.2. 

Table 4-8: Projected R-22 Service Needs for Pre-charged Imports (Metric Tons) 

Air-Conditioning Equipment Type 2010 2015 2020 

Window Units 100 300 500 

Dehumidifiers <50 <50 <50 

Packaged Terminal Units <50 <50 <50 

Residential Unitary AC 300 1,200 2,200 

Total 400 1,500 2,700 

As shown, above, an estimated 13.7 million units of pre-charged AC equipment are projected to enter the 

United States in 2010, growing to 16.5 million in 2015, and 20 million in 2020; this translates into a 

projected servicing need of approximately 400 metric tons in 2010, 1,500 metric tons in 2015, and 2,700 

metric tons in 2020. 

Table 4-9 presents a scenario of projected servicing needs for all AC and refrigeration equipment 

assuming imports of window units, dehumidifiers, packaged terminal units, and residential unitary AC 

units pre-charged with R-22 continue to enter the U.S. market after the end of 2009. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 24 September 2006
Table 4-9: Projected R-22 Servicing Scenario for all AC and 

Refrigeration Equipment (Including Imports) (Metric Tons) 

Servicing Scenarios 2010 2015 2020 

Servicing Needs of Domestically Manufactured Equipment 

and Equipment Imported Before 2010 68,600 43,200 20,600 

Servicing Needs of Equipment Imported After 2009 400 1,500 2,700 

Total Servicing Needs Including Imports 69,000 44,700 23,300 

As shown in Table 4-9, the projected quantities of R-22 required to service pre-charged post-2009 

imports comprise only one percent of the total servicing needs in 2010, growing to three percent in 2015 

and twelve percent in 2020. For the purpose of this analysis, import projections are based on the type 

and amount of equipment currently imported; however, if higher percentages of these types (particularly 

residential unitary AC) are imported, or if the import trend extends to other AC and refrigeration 

equipment types, particularly those with higher charge sizes, leak rates, and service rates (e.g., retail food 

equipment), the demand for R-22 for servicing will increase. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 25 September 2006
5. Conclusion 

On January 1, 2010, production and import of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 will be phased out except for 

on-going service needs for equipment manufactured on or before December 31, 2009. To support 

development of the allocation levels of HCFC-142b and HCFC-22 that will allow the U.S. to comply with 

the Montreal Protocol’s 2010, 2015, and 2020 reduction steps, this report provides projections on the 

quantity of R-22 needed for servicing AC and refrigeration equipment manufactured on or before 

December 31, 2009. 

 

Under the projected scenarios developed in this analysis, the AC and refrigeration industry is facing the 

potential risk of a shortage of R-22 starting in 2015 if practices to recover and reuse refrigerant are not 

maximized. However, because of the uncertainty associated with the future recovery and reuse of 

refrigerant, the findings indicate significant variance in the projected supply of recovered refrigerant 

available to meet demand. Under a scenario with higher refrigerant recovery and reuse, supplies are 

projected to satisfy future R-22 servicing needs using both recovered refrigerant and limited amounts of 

virgin refrigerant. 

The total projected servicing demand in 2010, 2015, and 2020 as compared to an allocation of 100 

percent of the HCFC consumption cap are summarized below along with concluding points on the 

implications of the two recovery and reuse scenarios. 

• In 2010, a projected servicing demand of 68,600 metric tons, or about 70 percent of the consumption 

cap, is estimated. Table 5-1 indicates that approximately 27 percent of this demand could be met 

with recovered refrigerant if 50 percent of the available refrigerant from discarded equipment is 

recovered and reused; if only 10 percent of the available refrigerant is recovered and reused, only five 

percent of the total demand can be met with recovered refrigerant. 

Table 5-1: Comparison of HCFC Servicing Demand Projections (Metric Tons) 

and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (Metric Tons and Percent), 2010 

2010 Scenario 1: 

50% Recovery Rate 

Scenario 2: 

10% Recovery Rate 

Capa 96,982 

Demand 68,600 

Necessary Supply 

 Recovered 18,500 (27%) 3,700 (5%) 

 Virgin 50,100 (73%) 64,900 (95%) 

 Shortfall 0 (0%) 0 (0%) a HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 metric tons to represent an allocation of 

100 percent of the cap assigned to R-22. 

• In 2015, a projected servicing demand of 43,400 metric tons is estimated, which is over the 

consumption cap by 57 percent. Under a scenario of higher recovery and reuse, Table 5-2 indicates 

that supplies from used R-22 can satisfy enough of the demand such that a shortage of refrigerant 

supply does not occur. However, in the lower recovery rate scenario, a shortfall of approximately 

11,000 metric tons is projected. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 26 September 2006
Table 5-2: Comparison of HCFC Servicing Demand Projections (Metric Tons) 

and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (Metric Tons and Percent), 2015 

2015 Scenario 1: 

50% Recovery Rate 

Scenario 2: 

10% Recovery Rate 

Capa 27,709 

Demand 43,400 

Necessary Supply 

 Recovered 22,600 (52%) 4,500 (10%) 

 Virgin 20,900 (48%) 27,709 (64%) 

 Shortfall 0 (0%) 11,191 (26%) a HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 metric tons to represent an allocation of 

100 percent of the cap assigned to R-22 

• In 2020, a projected servicing demand of 20,500 metric tons is estimated, although no consumption 

is allowed (Table 5-3). Under a scenario of higher recovery, this demand is projected to be met 

entirely with recovered refrigerant. However, under a scenario of minimal recovery, only 21 percent 

of this demand is projected to be met with recovered refrigerant, leading to a shortfall of over 

16,000 metric tons of R-22. 

Table 5-3: Comparison of HCFC Servicing Demand Projections (Metric Tons) 

and Necessary Supply Projections by Source (Metric Tons and Percent), 2020 

2020 Scenario 1: 

50% Recovery Rate 

Scenario 2: 

10% Recovery Rate 

Capa 0 

Demand 20,500 

Necessary Supply 

 Recovered 20,500 (100%) 4,400 (21%) 

 Virgin 0 (0%) 0 (0%) 

 Shortfall 0 (0%) 16,200 (79%) a HCFC consumption cap expressed in R-22 metric tons to represent an allocation of 

100 percent of the cap assigned to R-22. In 2020, 0.5 percent of the U.S. consumption 

cap remains; however, the phaseout schedule in 2020 prevents any allocation of the 

remaining cap to R-22.

Projections of future HCFC refrigerant supply and demand range depending on various market trends as 

addressed in this report. These projections provide the information necessary for taking initial steps in 

determining post 2010 servicing needs for R-22 equipment and ensuring that supplies are available by 

alerting the AC and refrigeration community of the critical need to adequately prepare for future HCFC 

phaseout dates. Further collaboration with the AC and refrigeration community is needed to ensure that 

servicing demand for HCFC-based systems can be met in 2010 and beyond. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 27 September 2006
Appendix A: Methodology Used to Calculate Projected 

Servicing Needs 

This appendix outlines the methodology used to calculate the projected servicing needs of AC and 

refrigeration equipment using R-22. This appendix contains three sections: 

• Section A.1 provides an overview of EPA’s Vintaging Model (EPA 2006a), which was used to 

establish the estimates of units of equipment using R-22 and R-22 servicing demand beyond 

2010. 

• Section A.2 details the assumptions used in a supplemental analysis that investigated the 

projected market of pre-charged AC imports and the associated servicing needs. 

• Section A.3 discusses the limitations to the servicing projections presented in this report. 

A.1 EPA’s Vintaging Model 

EPA’s Vintaging Model was developed as a 

tool for estimating the annual chemical 

emissions from industrial sectors that have 

historically used ODS in their products. 

Emissions are estimated from the following 

end-use sectors: 1) Air-Conditioning and 

Refrigeration; 2) Foams; 3) Aerosols; 4) 

Solvents; 5) Fire-Extinguishing; and 6) 

Sterilants. Within these sectors, there are 

over 50 independently modeled end-uses. 

The model requires information on the 

market growth for each of the end-uses, as 

well as a history and projection of the 

market transition from ODS to alternatives. 

As ODS are phased out, a percentage of 

the market share originally filled by the 

ODS is allocated to substitutes. 

Box A-1: Developing and Maintaining EPA’s Vintaging Model 

The Vintaging Model synthesizes data from a variety of sources, 

including: 

• The ODS Tracking System and submissions to the 

Significant New Alternatives Policy (SNAP) program both 

maintained by the U.S. EPA Stratospheric Protection 

Division; 

• Published literature from the United Nations Environment 

Programme (UNEP) Technical Options Committees, the 

Alternative Fluorocarbons Environmental Acceptability Study 

(AFEAS), and those provided in industry-related and EPA 

conference proceedings (such as the Earth Technologies 

Forum); and 

• Numerous companies and trade associations, such as the 

Alliance for Responsible Atmospheric Policy, the AirConditioning and Refrigeration Institute, the Association of 

Home Appliance Manufacturers, and the American 

Automobile Manufacturers Association. 

The model, named for its method of 

tracking the emissions of annual “vintages” 

of new equipment that enter into service, is 

a “bottom-up” model. This means it models 

the consumption of controlled [ozonedepleting] substances and their substitutes 

based on: 

In some instances the unpublished information that the U.S. EPA 

uses in the model is classified as Confidential Business Information 

(CBI). The annual emissions inventories of chemicals are 

aggregated in such a way that CBI cannot be inferred. 

1) Estimates of the quantity of 

equipment or products sold, serviced, 

and retired each year, and 

The Vintaging Model is continually updated to improve assumptions 

and modeling techniques and refine inputs based on information 

learned from these sources. In 2006, the model was updated based 

on information obtained from industry during the research phase of 

this analysis in 2005. As such, the methodology used in the 

preliminary draft report of this analysis, which required adjusting 

initial estimates from the Vintaging Model, was replaced with a 

methodology that relies solely on straight model output for the 

revised analysis. 

2) The quantity of the chemical required 

to manufacture and/or maintain the 

equipment. 

The model makes use of this market 

information to build an inventory of in-use 

stocks of equipment and quantities of 

ODS/ODS substitutes in each of the enduses. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 28 September 2006
Emissions are estimated by applying annual leak rates, service emission rates, and disposal emission 

rates to consumption data for each vintage of equipment. Emissions from AC and refrigeration 

equipment are split into two categories: emissions during equipment lifetime and disposal emissions. 

This first category, emissions during equipment lifetime, includes the amount of chemical leaked during 

equipment operation and the amount of chemical emitted during service. Consumption required to 

service or refill equipment is driven by the demand to replace such losses, and therefore, emissions 

during the lifetime of equipment are equal to consumption for servicing (since it is assumed that all leaked 

refrigerant is eventually replaced). Emissions, and therefore, consumption from leakage and servicing 

can be expressed as follows: 

Esj = (la + ls) × Σ Qcj-i+1 for i=1→k 

Where: 

Es = Emissions from Equipment Serviced. Emissions in year j from normal leakage and 

servicing of equipment. 

la = Annual Leak Rate. Average annual leak rate during normal equipment operation 

(expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge). 

ls = Service Leak Rate. Average leakage during equipment servicing (expressed as a 

percentage of total chemical charge). 

Qc = Quantity of Chemical in New Equipment. Total amount of a specific chemical used to 

charge new equipment in a given year by weight. 

i = Counter, runs from 1 to lifetime (k). 

j = Year of emission. 

k = Lifetime. The average lifetime of the equipment. 

The assumptions used in this calculation range by equipment and refrigerant, and vintage, reflecting that, 

as new technologies replace older ones, improvements in their leak, service, and disposal emission rates 

are assumed to occur. 

For the purpose of this analysis, the following data from EPA’s Vintaging Model were compiled and 

summarized for the AC and refrigeration sector: 

1) Consumption for Servicing, which is equal to the demand to service (i.e., refill) existing 

equipment. These data are back-calculated using service and leak emissions because the 

quantity emitted during the lifetime of equipment drives the demand to replace such losses. 

These estimates are further distinguished between consumption of virgin and recycled/reclaimed 

chemical. The model assumes that a certain percentage of refrigerant, which varies by end-use, 

is recovered from discarded equipment. The model then assumes a “best-case” scenario in 

which all recovered and re-usable refrigerant re-enters the market. See Section A.3 for further 

discussion on this “recovery pool.” 

2) Number of Units of Equipment, which is equal to, for “year X”’, the number of units existing in 

“year X-1” plus the number of new units produced in “year X” minus the number of units disposed 

in “year X”. 

For example: 

No. of Units in 1999 = No. of Units in 1998 + New Units in 1999 – Units Disposed in 1999 

Historical data estimated by EPA’s Vintaging Model is often cross-checked with actual historical data 

from EPA’s ODS Tracking System, which tracks actual ODS production and consumption (including 

import and export) by U.S. companies. The Model’s virgin manufacture parameter is considered to be 

most comparable to the Montreal Protocol’s definition of consumption (i.e., production plus imports 

minus exports minus destruction). In EPA’s Vintaging Model, the Virgin Manufacture parameter is 

calculated to be any need for consumption (either for new equipment or servicing) that cannot be met 

through recycled or recovered material; no distinction is made in the Vintaging Model between whether 

that need is met through domestic manufacturing or imports. As shown in Figure A-1, estimates from 

the model generally align rather well to actual consumption from 1993 to 2004. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 29 September 2006
Figure A-1: Comparison of EPA’s Vintaging Model Estimates for Virgin Manufacture 

and ODS Tracking System Data for HCFC-22 Consumption 

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004

ODP Weighted Metric Tons

Vintaging Model Estimates

ODS Tracking System Data

Source: EPA's ODS Tracking Sy stem, Vintaging Model (VM IO file_6-30-06_ALL)

Table A-1 presents the input assumptions used to develop the projections presented in this report. 

The loss rates represent the percent of the total charge that leaks in a given year plus the amount, on 

an annual basis, emitted at service, expressed as a percentage of total chemical charge. Because the 

amount lost from leaks and servicing is annualized, equipment is assumed to reach the end of its 

lifetime with a full charge.25 EPA’s Vintaging Model then applies a “recovery rate,” which refers to the 

percent of total charge of the equipment that is recovered and reused at the time of disposal. These 

recovery rates represent averages, intended to capture the range of possible practices occurring at 

disposal. 

Growth rate assumptions are also provided in Table A-1. The growth rates refer to the growth of the 

consumption market for each end-use as a whole and are not specific to the refrigerant. When the 

transition to different equipment and different refrigerants occur, the input assumptions are adjusted to 

account for these changes. 

 

25 For the majority of equipment types, the assumption that equipment contains a full charge at the end of life is theoretically 

applicable. In order to ensure proper and continual functioning of equipment, homeowners and businesses typically have their airconditioning and refrigeration systems serviced regularly. Technicians will check these systems for leaks using proper techniques 

and if a loss of refrigerant is found, will refill the system to ensure it is functioning efficiently after repairing any leaking seals or 

damaged components. Note that this assumption may not be appropriate for smaller equipment types such as window units but 

must be applied consistently for modeling purposes.

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 30 September 2006
Table A-1: Input Assumptions, Years 2005 to 2020 

Current 

Refrigerant 

Equipment Type and 

Original ODS Refrigerant 

Charge 

Sizea

Loss 

Rate 

Growth 

Rateb 

Recovery 

Rate 

Lifetime 

(Years) 

AC Equipment 

R-22 R-11 Centrifugal Chillers 700 14.1% 0.5% 51% 25 

R-22 R-12 Centrifugal Chillers 720.8 8.0% 0.5% 51% 27 

R-22 R-22 Chillers 1,818 8.3% 0.5% 51% 20 

R-22 R-500 Chillers 926.1 10.9% 0.5% 51% 27 

R-22 R-22 Residential Unitary AC (2005-2006) 3.4 11.9% 1.9% 57% 15 

R-22 R-22 Residential Unitary AC (2006-2020) 4.8 11.9% 1.9% 63% 15 

R-22 R-22 Small Commercial Unitary AC 7.5 11.0% 2.5% 57% 15 

R-22 R-22 Large Commercial Unitary AC 15 10.2% 2.5% 57% 15 

R-22 R-22 Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps 4.1 5.1% 2.5% 57% 20 

R-22 R-22 Dehumidifiers 0.2 0.5% 0% 50% 15 

R-22 R-22 Packaged Terminal Units 0.7 5.1% 2.5% 57% 12 

R-22 R-22 Window Units 0.6 0.6% 5% 50% 12 

R-22 R-12 Tour Buses 5 10.0% 0.92% 50% 12 

R-22 R-22 Transit Buses 8 44.0% 1.47% 50% 12 

R-22 R-22 Trains 22 43.2% 0.91% 50% 5 

Refrigeration Equipment 

R-22 R-12 Cold Storage 0.0088 17.2% 2.5% 43% 20 

R-22 R-22 Cold Storage 0.0088 20.0% 2.5% 43% 25 

R-22 R-502 Cold Storage 0.0088 17.1% 2.5% 43% 25 

R-402A R-502 Cold Storage 0.0088 25.0% 2.5% 10% 25 

R-502 R-502 Cold Storage 0.0088 25.0% 2.5% 10% 25 

R-22 R-12 Retail Food 1,800 17.6% 1.7% 43% 15 

R-22 R-22 Retail Food 93 6.4% 1.7% 43% 20 

R-22 R-502 Retail Food 6.3 13.8% 1.7% 43% 20 

R-402A R-502 Retail Food 6.3 21.3% 1.7% 10% 20 

R-502 R-502 Retail Food 6.3 21.3% 1.7% 10% 20 

R-22 R-12 Transport 7.53 27.9% 2.5% 38% 12 

R-402A R-12 Transport 7.53 27.9% 2.5% 10% 12 

R-401A R-502 Transport 7.53 27.9% 2.5% 10% 12 

R-502 R-502 Transport 7.53 27.9% 2.5% 10% 12 

R-22 R-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration 952 12.0% 2.5% 51% 25 

R-22 R-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration 992 5.4% 2.5% 51% 25 

R-401A R-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration 850 5.4% 2.5% 51% 25 

R-22 R-22 Industrial Process Refrigeration 9,100 12.3% 2.5% 51% 25 

Source: VM IO File_6-30-06_ALL 

a Charge size presented in kilograms. Cold storage charge size presented in kilograms/cubic foot. 

b The growth rate applies to new consumption/virgin manufacture. For example, in the window units market, any year’s consumption is five 

percent greater than the previous year’s consumption. 

Table A-2 presents the assumptions used to model the transition from R-22 to alternatives for each end 

use. The first column of the table presents the R-22 equipment types by the refrigerants that they 

originally used. The second column presents the refrigerants that enter the market and are used in new 

equipment in place of R-22. 26 These refrigerants begin to enter the new-equipment market in the year 

presented in the fourth column and fully penetrate this market by the date presented in the fifth column. 

 

26 These transition assumptions are for new equipment only; they do not imply that the original equipment was retrofitted to the 

alternative refrigerants. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 31 September 2006
The final column indicates the percent of the R-22 new-equipment market that the given substitute 

refrigerant replaces by the transition end date. All transitions are assumed to occur linearly between the 

transition start and end dates. By combining multiple transitions to different refrigerants and over different 

time periods, the Vintaging Model mimics actual, non-linear transitions that may occur. 

For example, the centrifugal chiller new-equipment market that originally used R-11 first transitioned from 

R-11 to R-22. Then, between 2000 and 2010, 70 percent of the R-22 new-equipment market is assumed 

to transition to R-134a and the remaining 30 percent to R-407C. 

Table A-2: Transition to Alternatives Assumptions of EPA’s 

Vintaging Model for R-22 Refrigeration and AC Equipment

1 2 3 4 5 

R-22 Equipment Type and 

Original ODS Refrigerant Substitute Start Date End Date Market Penetration of Substitutea 

HFC-134a 2000 2010 70% CFC-11 Centrifugal Chillers R-407C 2000 2010 30% 

HFC-134a 2000 2010 70% CFC-12 Centrifugal Chillers R-407C 2000 2010 30% 

HFC-134a 2000 2010 70% R-500 Chillers 

R-407C 2000 2010 30% 

2000 2009 7% HFC-134a 

2009 2010 63% 

2000 2009 3% 

HCFC-22 Chillers 

R-407C 

2009 2010 27% 

R-407C 2010 2010 10% 

2000 2005 5% 

2000 2006 5% 

2006 2006 20% 

2007 2010 20% 

HCFC-22 Residential Unitary AC R-410A 

2010 2010 40% 

1996 2000 3% 

2001 2005 18% 

2006 2009 8% HCFC-22 Small Commercial Unitary AC R-410A 

2009 2010 71% 

2006 2009 1% R-407C 2009 2010 5% 

2001 2005 5% 

2006 2009 8% 

HCFC-22 Large Commercial Unitary AC 

R-410A 

2009 2010 81% 

2006 2009 1% R-407C 2009 2010 5% 

2001 2006 4% 

2006 2009 9% 

HCFC-22 Water & Ground Source Heat 

Pumps R-410A 

2009 2010 81% 

HFC-134a 1997 1997 89% HCFC-22 Dehumidifiers 

R-410A 2007 2010 11% 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 32 September 2006
1 2 3 4 5 

R-22 Equipment Type and Market Penetration of Substitute Start Date End Date Original ODS Refrigerant Substitutea 

2000 2006 5% 

R-407C 2006 2009 2% 

2009 2010 23% 

2000 2006 5% 

R-410A 2006 2009 5% 

2009 2010 40% 

2000 2009 2% 

HCFC-22 Packaged Terminal Units 

HFC-134a 

2009 2010 18% 

2003 2009 3% R-407C 

2009 2010 35% 

2003 2009 7% 

HCFC-22 Window Units 

R-410A 

2009 2010 55% 

CFC-12 Tour Buses HFC-134a 2006 2008 100% 

HCFC-22 Transit Buses HFC-134a 1995 2009 100% 

HCFC-22 Trains Unknown 2002 2009 100% 

R-404A 1996 2010 75% CFC-12 Cold Storage R-507A 1996 2010 25% 

1996 2009 7% R-404A 2009 2010 68% 

1996 2009 2% 

 

HCFC-22 Cold Storage R-507A 2009 2010 23% 

R-404A 1996 2010 38% 

R-502 Cold Storage R-507A 1996 2010 12% 

Other 1996 2010 50% 

CFC-11 Industrial Process Refrigeration HFC-134a 1995 2010 100% 

HFC-134a 1995 2010 15% 

R-404A 1995 2010 50% 

R-410A 1999 2010 20% 

CFC-12 Industrial Process Refrigeration 

R-507A 1995 2010 15% 

1995 2009 1% HFC-134a 2009 2010 14% 

1995 2009 5% R-404A 2009 2010 45% 

1999 2009 2% R-410A 2009 2010 18% 

1995 2009 1% 

HCFC-22 Industrial Process 

Refrigeration 

R-507A 

2009 2010 14% 

1995 2000 17% 

R-404A 2000 2005 32% 

2005 2010 18% 

1995 2000 7% 

2000 2005 14% 

CFC-12 Retail Food 

R-507A 

2005 2010 12% 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 33 September 2006
1 2 3 4 5 

R-22 Equipment Type and Market Penetration of Substitute Start Date End Date Original ODS Refrigerant Substitutea 

1995 2000 17% 

R-404A 2000 2005 32% 

2005 2010 18% 

1995 2000 7% 

2000 2005 14% 

HCFC-22 Retail Food 

R-507A 

2005 2010 12% 

R-404A 2000 2010 75% R-502 Retail Food R-507A 2000 2010 25% 

CFC-12 Transport HFC-134a 1995 1999 100% 

HFC-134a 1993 1995 55% R-502 Transportb 

R-404A 1993 1995 45% 

Source: VM IO File_6-30-06_ALL 

aThe market penetration of the substitute represents the percent of the R-22 new-equipment market that is replaced by the 

substitute refrigerant. 

bThe R-502 transport refrigeration market transitions directly to HFC-134a and R-404A. There is no interim transition to R-22. 

A.2 Supplemental Analysis: Pre-charged Imports 

Through discussions with industry representatives, it was determined that the anticipated trends in 

imports of equipment precharged with R-22 needed to be taken into account in the analysis. EPA’s 

Vintaging Model assumes that no new R-22 equipment enters the market after 2010. To create a 

scenario that reflects the fact that R-22 equipment may in fact be imported post 2010, EPA’s Vintaging 

Model inputs of four end-uses—window units, dehumidifiers, packaged terminal units, and residential 

unitary ACs—were altered to run a scenario that reflects the assumptions listed in Table A-3 below. 

Table A-3: Assumptions for the Import Analysisa

End-use Transition Modification 

Window Units 

Dehumidifiers 100% of the market remains R-22 through 2030 (i.e., no transitions away from R-22) 

Packaged Terminal Units 

Residential Unitary AC 

10% of the market continues using R-22 through 2030 while the remaining 90% of the 

market transitions to non-ozone depleting alternatives as described in Table A-2 

aThese end-uses and transition modifications were chosen based on industry contacts, which indicated that currently almost all window 

units and dehumidifiers sold in the U.S. are imported and that a smaller percentage of residential unitary AC systems and packaged 

terminal units are imported (ARI 2005; AHAM 2005). 

A.3 Limitations and Caveats 

This analysis utilized the best data available from various sources. However, when making projections 

several assumptions are required. EPA’s Vintaging Model was used to determine the quantities of R-22 

from existing (recycled or reclaimed) sources that can meet post-2010 servicing needs and the remaining 

quantities required through virgin manufacture. For a given year, the model assumes that a certain 

percentage of refrigerant, which varies by end-use, is recovered from discarded equipment, while the 

remainder is emitted. The model aggregates the quantities recovered but does not distinguish the “pool” 

of refrigerant between quantities that are reclaimed versus those that are recycled. The model then 

assumes that the entire pool of recovered refrigerant re-enters the market within the same year; any 

additional demand for refrigerant, above that which is thus assumed to be met by recovered refrigerant, is 

calculated to be virgin manufacture. It is important to note that the recovery pool and the remaining virgin 

manufacture can be evaluated only at the most aggregate level, across all end-uses, and not at the endDraft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 34 September 2006
use level, as the model does not serve to differentiate between virgin and recycled refrigerant when 

calculating demand for each end-use. This model attribute reflects a more realistic scenario in that 

reclaimers are not likely to only sell back to the end-use market sector from which the used refrigerant 

originated; rather, reclaimed refrigerant can be retailed to the overall AC and refrigeration industry. 

Under this modeled approach, the following caveats should be noted: 

• The model does not consider the quantity of refrigerant that companies send off for destruction 

(generally through incineration) after equipment is decommissioned. Although the quantities of 

destroyed refrigerant are very small, they are not subtracted from the recovered pool, so the 

quantity available for reuse may be slightly overestimated in the model. 

• The model does not account for any stockpiling of recovered refrigerant beyond a one-year 

timeframe, as discussed in Section 4.3. To the extent that stockpiling activities occur over the 

next few years, the quantity of recovered refrigerant modeled as re-entering the market may be 

overestimated in earlier years (i.e., when refrigerant is banked), and the quantity modeled as reentering the market in later years may be underestimated (i.e., when the accumulated bank is 

accessed as a source). 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 35 September 2006
Appendix B: HCFC Projections by End-Use 

This Appendix provides more detailed projections for future servicing needs and is organized as follows: 

• Section B.1 provides estimates of the projected installed base of R-22 equipment by end-use and 

the projected quantities of R-22 needed to service AC and refrigeration equipment. 

• Section B.2 provides estimates of the quantities of R-123 and R-124 needed to service AC and 

refrigeration equipment by end-use. 

Estimates are provided for AC and refrigeration equipment by end-use from 2005 to 2020 in five year 

increments. Descriptions of end-uses are provided in Section 3 of the report. For the purpose of this 

analysis, data on HCFC blend consumption for servicing are divided among the corresponding HCFC 

constituent(s) of that blend, according to the percent composition. However, in order to accurately portray 

the number of units containing pure R-22, blends are not disaggregated when presenting the number of 

units of equipment (i.e., a unit running on a blend containing HCFC-22 counts as one unit). 

B.1 R-22 Equipment and Servicing Demand by End-Use 

Table B-1 presents the number of units of equipment using R-22 that are estimated to be in use in 2005, 

2010, 2015, and 2020. These estimates were developed based on EPA’s Vintaging Model, which takes 

into account recent input from industry representatives (EPA 2006a). Sections 3.1 and 3.2 provide an 

overview of these AC and refrigeration end-uses. 

Table B-1: Estimated Number of R-22 Units Installed 

Equipment Type 2005 2010 2015 2020 

Window Units 67,784,600 74,178,600 41,559,400 4,102,600 

Packaged Terminal Units 2,606,600 2,478,800 1,355,100 123,100 

Residential Unitary AC 51,821,200 46,884,600 29,197,700 10,709,100 

Small Commercial Unitary AC 18,582,000 17,097,500 10,666,800 4,291,400 

Large Commercial Unitary AC 1,910,100 1,849,900 1,208,600 505,200 

Chillers 11,700 10,100 9,400 6,800 

Dehumidifiers 11,666,700 3,517,600 1,448,400 0 

Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps 1,390,100 1,392,000 1,058,200 680,900 

Other Mobile AC 94,600 46,600 14,100 0 

Total AC 155,867,600 147,455,700 86,517,700 20,419,100 

Cold Storagea 253,881,300 231,153,800 132,924,500 61,119,300 

Retail Food 2,261,700 2,195,400 1,553,500 763,000 

Refrigerated Transport 10,700 0 0 0 

Industrial Process Refrigeration 7,800 8,700 7,500 5,600 

Total Refrigerationb 2,280,200 2,204,100 1,561,000 768,600 

Total 158,147,800 149,659,800 88,078,700 21,187,700 aFor this table, units of Cold Storage are presented in cubic feet of storage. 

bTotals do not include Cold Storage 

Table B-2 presents the metric tons of R-22 estimated to be needed to service AC and refrigeration 

equipment in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 36 September 2006
Table B-2: Projected R-22 Servicing Demand (Metric Tons)

Equipment Type 2005 2010 2015 2020 

Window Units 200 300 100 <50 

Packaged Terminal Units 100 100 <50 <50 

Residential Unitary AC 20,900 20,700 13,500 6,100 

Small Commercial Unitary AC 15,400 14,100 8,800 3,500 

Large Commercial Unitary AC 2,900 2,800 1,800 800 

Chillers 3,100 3,000 2,400 1,600 

Dehumidifiers <50 <50 <50 0 

Water & Ground Source Heat Pumps 300 300 200 100 

Other Mobile AC 300 100 <50 0 

Total AC 43,200 41,400 26,800 12,100 

Cold Storage 1,000 1,000 800 600 

Retail Food 23,800 17,300 8,500 2,600 

Refrigerated Transport 100 0 0 0 

Industrial Process Refrigeration 8,200 8,900 7,100 5,300 

Total Refrigeration 33,100 27,200 16,400 8,500 

Total 76,300 68,600 43,200 20,600 

Although the equipment-specific servicing estimates can not be broken down into recovered versus new 

refrigerant, the overall servicing demand is expected to be met in part by the use of recovered refrigerant. 

By 2010, it is projected that between five and 27 percent of all equipment can be serviced with recovered 

refrigerant. The use of recovered R-22 (as a percent of overall servicing demand) is projected to increase 

to between 10 and 52 percent by 2015, and 21 and 100 percent by 2020. Servicing demand is assumed 

to be increasingly satisfied by recovered (as opposed to virgin) refrigerant, as an increasing number of old 

equipment units gets retired, and their installed refrigerant becomes available for reuse. 

B.2 Other HCFC Refrigerants Projected by End-Use 

Table B-3 presents the estimated servicing demand, in metric tons, of R-123 and R-124 in 2005, 2010, 

2015, and 2020, as broken down by equipment type. 

Table B-3: Other HCFC Servicing Demand (Metric Tons) 

Refrigerant and Equipment Type 2005 2010 2015 2020 

R-123

Chillers 500 400 300 200 

Industrial Process Refrigeration <50 100 100 100 

Total 500 500 400 300 

R-124 

Transport <50 0 0 0 

Industrial Process Refrigeration <50 <50 <50 <50 

Total <50 <50 <50 <50 

Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 37 September 2006
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Draft-Do Not Cite or Quote- 40 September 2006