U.S. Department of Education 

Institute of Education Sciences 

NCES 2007–026 

Event Dropout 

Rates for Public 

School Students 

in Grades 9–12: 

2002–03 and 

2003–04 

First Look Report 

U.S. Department of Education 

Institute of Education Sciences 

NCES 2007–026 

Event Dropout 

Rates for Public 

School Students 

in Grades 9–12: 

2002–03 and 

2003–04 

May 2007 

Chris Chapman 

Lee Hoffman

National Center for 

Education Statistics
U.S. Department of Education 

Margaret Spellings 

Secretary 

Institute of Education Sciences 

Grover J. Whitehurst 

Director 

National Center for Education Statistics 

Mark Schneider 

Commissioner 

The National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) is the primary federal entity for collecting, analyzing, and reporting 

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Suggested Citation: 

Chapman, C., and Hoffman, L. (2007). Event Dropout Rates for Public School Students in Grades 9-12: 2002–03 and 2003–

04 (NCES 2007–026). U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC. 

For ordering information on this report, write: 

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 PO Box 1398 

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Call toll free 1-877-4ED-PUBS or order online at www.edpubs.org

Content Contact: 

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iii 

Acknowledgments 

The authors appreciate the comments and suggestions of the NCES reviewers, Jack Buckley, 

Marilyn Seastrom, and Val Plisko. Terri Kennerly and Dell Gray of the U.S. Census Bureau 

were responsible for editing and verifying the data. Nick Gaviola of Quality Information 

Partners constructed the data files. 

The greatest thanks are owed to the CCD Coordinators for the 50 states and 8 other jurisdictions 

who voluntarily report CCD data each year. This work is in addition to their other professional 

duties, and NCES is grateful for these Coordinators’ efforts.
iv 
v 

Contents

Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................... iii 

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. vi 

Summary of Findings................................................................................................................. 1 

 Introduction.......................................................................................................................... 1 

 Highlights 2002–03.............................................................................................................. 2 

 Highlights 2003–04.............................................................................................................. 2 

Comparing 2003–04 and 2002–03....................................................................................... 3 

Technical Notes ......................................................................................................................... 6 

References.................................................................................................................................. 8
vi 

List of Tables 

Table 1. Event dropout rates for public school students in grades 9–12, by state: School 

years 2002–03 and 2003–04 ...................................................................................... 4 
1

Summary of Findings 

Introduction 

This report presents the event dropout rates for public school students in grades 9 

through 12 for two years —2002–03 and 2003–04. Data used to develop these rates 

are taken from the Common Core of Data (CCD) 2002–03 and 2003–04 State-level 

Public School Dropout files. Data in these files were reported to the National Center 

for Education Statistics (NCES) by state education agencies (SEAs) and represent 

high school dropouts between October 1, 2002 and September 30, 2003 and between 

October 1, 2003 and September 30, 2004. All 50 states reported dropout counts for 

9th- through 12th-grade students for 2002–03 as did most of the outlying areas. The 

District of Columbia and Guam did not report dropout data for 2002–03. Reporting 

was less consistent for 2003–04 when 48 states reported dropout data, with the 

District of Columbia, Oregon, and Wisconsin not reporting. All of the outlying areas 

reported in 2003–04. 

The event dropout rate provides a measure of the percentage of high school students 

who drop out of high school over the course of a given school year. As such, it is 

useful for studying what happened to a particular group of high school students in a 

single year. The event dropout rate reported here focuses on public high school 

students in grades 9 through 12. As defined for CCD reporting, dropout is an 

individual who was enrolled in school at some time during the previous school year, 

was not enrolled on October 1 of the current school year, and did not graduate from 

high school or complete some other district- or state-approved educational program 

(e.g., the General Educational Development certificate, or GED).1

 

The state dropout rate is calculated by summing the number of dropouts for the state 

in a given year, and dividing this sum by the number of students enrolled at the 

beginning of that school year. For example, the 2002–03 grade 9–12 dropout rate for 

Alabama is the sum of dropouts in grades 9, 10, 11, and 12 divided by the sum of 

students enrolled in these grades on October 1, 2002. 

Event dropout rate = ∑ dropouts grades 9–12y 

 ∑ enrollment grades 9–12y 

where y is a given year. 

Other dropout rates have been developed for different purposes. NCES has published 

several such rates including status dropout rates and cohort dropout rates. Status 

dropout rates report the percentage of individuals in a given age range who are not in 

school and have not earned a high school diploma or equivalency credential, 

_______________ 1

 For more details on how dropouts are defined for CCD reporting purposes, please see appendix D in, 

“Instructions for Completing the Nonfiscal Surveys of the Common Core of Data: School Universe Survey, 

Agency Universe Survey, State Nonfiscal Survey—2004–05,” at http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/datamanual.asp. 
2

irrespective of when they dropped out and can be used to study general population 

issues (e.g., see Laird, DeBell, and Chapman 2006). Cohort dropout rates are 

designed to measure the percentage of students in a given cohort or class who drop 

out over a period of time (e.g., see McMillen 1997). 

Highlights 2002–03 

• For the 2002–03 school year, event dropout rates for public high school 

students ranged from a low of 1.8 percent in New Jersey to a high of 8.5 

percent in Arizona (table 1). 

• In 2002–03, the state rates show that event dropout rates were less than 3 

percent in 8 states. In addition to New Jersey, these states were: Iowa, 1.9 

percent; Wisconsin, 2.0 percent; Connecticut, 2.1 percent; North Dakota, 2.2 

percent; Indiana, 2.2, percent; Kansas, 2.4 percent; and Maine, 2.8 percent. 

• Five states had event dropout rates in 2002–03 of over 6 percent. In addition 

to Arizona, these states included: Nevada, 6.1 percent; Washington, 6.2 

percent; Louisiana, 7.5 percent; and Alaska, 7.6 percent. 

• Combined, the event dropout counts for the 50 states in 2002–03 indicate that 

nearly 550,000 9th- through 12th-grade students dropped out of public schools 

over the course of this single school year. 

Highlights 2003–04 

• For the next school year, 2003–04, the event dropout rates for public high 

school students in the reporting states ranged from a low of 1.8 percent in 

Connecticut and New Jersey to a high of 7.9 percent in Louisiana. 

• In 2003–04, in addition to New Jersey and Connecticut, 10 states had event 

dropout rates of less than 3 percent that year. These states were: North 

Dakota, 2.0 percent; Iowa, 2.1 percent; Kansas, 2.2 percent; Indiana, 2.5 

percent; Maine, 2.7 percent; Vermont, 2.8 percent; Nebraska, 2.8 percent; 

Virginia, 2.8 percent; Pennsylvania, 2.9 percent; and Mississippi, 2.9 percent. 

• In addition to Louisiana, 4 other states had rates over 6 percent in 2003–04: 

Delaware, 6.1 percent; Washington, 6.5 percent; Arizona, 6.7 percent; and 

Alaska, 7.0. 

• Looking at the 48 reporting states, these rates translate into a count of just 

over 545,000 9th- through 12th-grade students who dropped out of public high 

schools during the 2003–04 school year. 
3

Comparing 2003–04 and 2002–03 

• Rates for 2003–04 were lower than rates for 2002–03 in 22 states and higher 

in 19 states. Changes ranged from a decline of 1.8 percentage points in 

Arizona to an increase of 1.9 percentage points in Colorado.2

_______________ 

2

 Several states have changes that round to 0.0 percentage points, which are identified with the # symbol in the table. 

Missouri, North Carolina, and Texas had declines of less than 0.05 percentage points, and Florida, Kentucky, New 

Hampshire, and Wyoming had increases of this magnitude. 
4

Table 1. Event dropout rates for public school students in grades 9–12, by state: School years 2002-03 and 2003-04

Rate change

Event rate Grade 9-12 Grade 9-12 Event rate for Grade 9-12 Grade 9-12 (percentage

State or jurisdiction (percent) enrollment dropouts (percent) enrollment dropouts point)

Reporting states 3.9 13,986,717 548,020 3.9 13,806,520 545,266 #

Alabama1 3.5 203,117 7,067 3.3 205,907 6,842 -0.2

Alaska 7.6 39,984 3,045 7.0 40,238 2,814 -0.6

Arizona1 8.5 273,872 23,242 6.7 307,935 20,533 -1.8

Arkansas 4.6 132,138 6,091 4.7 133,008 6,236 0.1

California 3.2 1,828,426 59,045 3.3 1,874,309 62,286 0.1

Colorado 3.5 217,133 7,673 5.4 220,870 11,963 1.9

Connecticut 2.1 164,008 3,479 1.8 168,826 3,009 -0.3

Delaware 5.5 34,121 1,862 6.1 34,770 2,108 0.6

District of Columbia — 16,595 — — 17,874 — — 

Florida1 3.4 729,149 24,542 3.4 755,199 25,513 #

Georgia 5.8 407,451 23,828 5.4 419,430 22,632 -0.5

Hawaii 4.7 52,950 2,496 4.8 53,541 2,575 0.1

Idaho 3.9 75,241 2,917 3.1 76,335 2,395 -0.7

Illinois1 5.7 598,237 34,364 5.3 610,317 32,445 -0.4

Indiana 2.2 289,148 6,467 2.5 293,876 7,481 0.3

Iowa 1.9 154,827 3,014 2.1 153,738 3,222 0.1

Kansas 2.4 147,983 3,504 2.2 147,224 3,265 -0.2

Kentucky 3.3 184,083 6,042 3.3 185,171 6,163 #

Louisiana 7.5 193,332 14,507 7.9 191,292 15,056 0.4

Maine 2.8 62,679 1,741 2.7 62,636 1,682 -0.1

Maryland1 3.6 255,194 9,062 4.1 262,036 10,659 0.5

Massachusetts 3.3 281,939 9,389 3.7 288,329 10,633 0.4

Michigan 4.5 527,100 23,489 4.6 522,530 23,991 0.1

Minnesota 3.8 279,190 10,691 3.2 278,805 8,846 -0.7

Mississippi 3.7 130,527 4,859 2.9 130,861 3,830 -0.8

Missouri 3.3 270,522 9,049 3.3 272,303 9,090 #

Montana 3.6 48,901 1,782 3.4 48,325 1,655 -0.2

Nebraska 3.1 90,289 2,813 2.8 90,125 2,526 -0.3

Nevada 6.1 98,321 5,987 6.0 104,810 6,302 -0.1

New Hampshire 3.8 64,220 2,441 3.8 65,561 2,500 #

New Jersey1 1.8 389,888 7,199 1.8 403,883 7,223 -0.1

New Mexico 4.7 95,767 4,501 5.2 97,034 5,009 0.5

New York1 5.5 836,689 45,732 5.6 855,600 47,929 0.1

North Carolina 5.2 371,987 19,424 5.2 386,190 20,025 #

North Dakota 2.2 35,136 760 2.0 34,363 679 -0.2

Ohio 3.0 553,272 16,342 3.3 566,351 18,890 0.4

Oklahoma 4.0 175,444 7,011 3.9 175,765 6,827 -0.1

Oregon 4.4 169,589 7,439 — 173,269 — — 

Pennsylvania 3.2 573,753 18,329 2.9 584,258 16,780 -0.3

Rhode Island 4.0 46,661 1,882 3.4 47,812 1,639 -0.6

South Carolina 3.2 191,743 6,231 3.4 196,519 6,667 0.1

South Dakota 3.3 40,598 1,339 4.2 39,522 1,669 0.9

Tennessee1 3.2 251,203 8,079 3.3 256,794 8,434 0.1

Texas 3.6 1,180,108 42,447 3.6 1,199,136 42,979 #

Utah 3.9 145,235 5,594 3.8 145,626 5,518 -0.1

See notes at end of table.

2002-03 2003-04
Table 1. Event dropout rates for public school students in grades 9–12, by state: School years 2002-03 and 2003-04 —

Table 1. Continued

Rate change

Event rate Grade 9-12 Grade 9-12 Event rate for Grade 9-12 Grade 9-12 (percentage

State or jurisdiction (percent) enrollment dropouts (percent) enrollment dropouts point)

Vermont

1 3.5 31,846 1,111 2.8 32,196 901 -0.7

Virginia 3.0 346,082 10,376 2.8 354,981 10,033 -0.2

Washington 6.2 317,607 19,721 6.5 322,101 20,980 0.3

West Virginia 3.7 82,505 3,055 4.3 82,382 3,570 0.6

Wisconsin 2.0 289,333 5,686 — 290,019 — —

Wyoming 4.5 28,190 1,274 4.6 27,701 1,262 #

Outlying areas

American Somoa 2.0 4,102 81 2.4 4,073 97.0 0.4

Guam — — — 9.1 9,021 825.0 —

Northern Marianas 2.6 2,895 74 2.8 3,073 87.0 0.3

Puerto Rico 0.9 166,345 1,580 1.0 165,527 1599.0 #

Virgin Islands 2.8 5,550 157 7.7 5,078 392 4.9

— Not available. These states do not report dropouts that are consistent with the NCES definition.

# Rounds to zero. The differences are 0.01 for Florida, 0.046 for Kentucky, -0.01 for Missouri, 0.01 for New Hampshire,

-0.04 for North Carolina, -0.01 for Texas, and 0.04 for Wyoming. 1 These states used an alternative calendar for each year shown, reporting students who drop out between one July and the next.

The rates from both calendar approaches are comparable (see Winglee et al. 2000).

NOTE: These event dropout rates measure the percentage of public school students in grades 9–12 who dropped out of school between

one October and the next. Data are reported by states to the U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), “State-Level

Public School Dropouts," School Years 2002-03 and 2003-04, Version 1a. 

2002-03 2003-04

5
6

Technical Notes 

Overview 

Dropout data included in the Common Core of Data (CCD) are obtained through annual reports 

from state education agencies (SEAs) that include the numbers of dropouts at the local education 

agency level by gender and race/ethnicity for each of grades 7 through 12. The CCD is a 

voluntary data collection. NCES does not publish data reported by states that do not conform to 

the CCD dropout definition and reporting procedures. The definitions and reporting procedures 

can be found in appendix D of Instructions for Completing the Nonfiscal Surveys of the Common 

Core of Data: School Universe Survey, Agency Universe Survey, State Nonfiscal Survey—2004–

05 at http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/datamanual.asp. For the 2002–03 school year, all 50 states and 

Puerto Rico, American Samoa, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and the 

U.S. Virgin Islands reported dropout data in agreement with the CCD definition. The District of 

Columbia did not report. For 2003–04, 48 states, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, the 

Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, and the U.S. Virgin Islands reported. 

The District of Columbia, Oregon, and Wisconsin did not report. Dropout data for a given 

school year are reported to the CCD in the following school year. The numbers of 2002–03 

school year dropouts were reported in the 2003–04 CCD. These numbers are the basis of the 

State-Level Public School Dropouts data files for school years 2002–03 and 2003–04 used in this 

report. The dropout data are reported as part of the Local Education Agency Universe Survey

each year. Before release, disclosure analyses are conducted and data suppression implemented 

though this does not affect the state-level dropout counts. Enrollment data included in the 

dropout files are taken annually from the Public Elementary/Secondary School Universe Survey. 

The CCD defines a dropout as an individual who was enrolled in school at some time during the 

previous school year, was not enrolled on October 1 of the current school year, and did not 

graduate from high school or complete some other district- or state-approved educational 

program. Students who transfer to another elementary or secondary public or private school, who 

leave the United States, or who are out of school due to illness, are not considered dropouts. 

Students who complete a grade but do not return for the subsequent school year are counted as 

dropouts for the year and grade in which they fail to enroll. Dropouts who are not in a traditional 

grade (ungraded students) are assigned by states to the grades most appropriate for their age. 

Students who are not in a traditional grade are assigned to specific grades by NCES for purposes 

of adjusting the denominator of the rate. This is done by (1) calculating the total enrollment for 

all grades, prekindergarten through grade 12; (2) computing the proportion of the graded 

prekindergarten through grade 12 enrollment accounted for by each particular grade, and (3) 

incrementing the enrollment for each grade by its corresponding proportion of the ungraded 

enrollment. For example, if 6 percent of all students in prekindergarten through grade 12 were 

enrolled in grade 10, 6 percent of the ungraded enrollment would be added to grade 10. 
7

Data Limitations 

The CCD does not collect data from private schools. It includes only public education system 

data as reported to NCES by the individual SEAs. Some states include nontraditional agencies, 

such as Departments of Corrections, in their CCD reports while others do not, and states vary in 

terms of treatment of alternative completion programs, such as credentials awarded for 

completion of Individualized Education Programs (IEPs) and GED programs. 

There is variation in the degree of rigor with which SEAs verify their dropout data. NCES 

requires SEAs to confirm whether they comply with the CCD dropout definition and to confirm 

or amend any numbers that appear considerably out of line with other states or with data from 

previous years. However, NCES does not audit a state’s or school district’s dropout data. 

Not all states reported dropout information. However, when information is missing for no more 

than 15 percent of cases across the United States, NCES calculates totals and identifies them as 

totals for “reporting states,” rather than for the United States, and column headings are labeled 

accordingly. For example, the District of Columbia did not report dropout counts for 2002–03, 

so the total number of dropouts shown at the top of the table is for the reporting states and not for 

all dropouts in the entire United States. 

For More Information 

For more information about data sets used in this report, contact Lee Hoffman, National Center 

for Education Statistics, 1990 K Street NW, Washington, DC 20006-5651; or call 202-502-7356; 

fax 202-502-7475; or email lee.hoffman@ed.gov. Visit the Common Core of Data website for 

downloading files and documentation at http://nces.ed.gov/ccd. 
8

References 

Laird, J., DeBell, M., and Chapman, C. (2006). Dropout Rates in the United States: 2004 (NCES 

2007-024). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National Center for Education 

Statistics. 

McMillen, M. (1997). Dropout Rates in the United States: 1996 (NCES 98-250). U.S. 

Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. Washington, DC. 

U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics. (2004). Instructions for 

Completing the Nonfiscal Surveys of the Common Core of Data: School Universe Survey, 

Agency Universe Survey, State Nonfiscal Survey—2004–05. Retrieved April 22, 2007 from 

(http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/datamanual.asp).

Winglee, M., Marker, D., Henderson, A., Aronstamm Young, B., and Hoffman, L. (2000). A 

Recommended Approach to Providing High School Dropout and Completion Rates at the 

State Level (NCES 2000-305). U.S. Department of Education. Washington, DC: National 

Center for Education Statistics.