10-i

CHAPTER 10: NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

10.1 INTRODUCTION ......................................................................................................... 10-1 

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS ........................ 10-2 

10.2.1 Base Case Efficiency Distribution..................................................................... 10-2 

10.2.2 Standards Case Efficiency Distributions ........................................................... 10-3 

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS ............................................................................... 10-4

10-4

10-5

10-5

10-6

10-7

10-7

10-9

10-9

10-10

10-11

10-11

10-12

10-12

10-12

10-13

10-13

10-13

10-14

10-14

10-15

10-16

10-17

10-18

10-19

10-23

10-26

10-4

10.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition .................................................................. 

10.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs......................................................................... 

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit ........................................................ 

10.3.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock ................................................................. 

10.3.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption........................................................ 

10.3.2.4 Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factors.................................................. 

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE............................................................................................... 

10.4.1 Net Present Value Definition............................................................................. 

10.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................. 

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit...................................................................... 

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit................................................... 

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases ....................................................... 

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings....................................................... 

10.4.2.5 Discount Factors........................................................................................ 

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs............................................................................... 

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings........................................................................... 

10.5 TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS ................................................................................... 

10.5.1 Polyphase Small Electric Motors..................................................................... 

10.5.2 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors............................................................. 

10.6 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS........ 

10.6.2 National Energy Savings Results..................................................................... 

10.6.3 Annual Costs and Savings ............................................................................... 

10.6.4 Net Present Value Results................................................................................ 

10.6.5 Sensitivity of NES and NPV to Model Inputs................................................. 

10.6.6 Capacitor-Start National Impact Summary...................................................... 

10.6.7 Annualized National Impacts........................................................................... 

LIST OF TABLES 

Table 10.2.1 Base Case Efficiency Distributions ................................................................... 10-2 

Table 10.2.2 Polyphase Motor Efficiency Market Shares in the Base and Standards 

Cases.................................................................................................................. 10-3 

Table 10.2.3 CSIR Motor Efficiency Market Shares in the Base and Standards Cases......... 10-3 

Table 10.2.4 CSCR Motor Efficiency Market Shares in the Base and Standards Cases........ 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-ii

Table 10.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs.......................................................................... 10-5

10-6

10-10

10-11

10-14

10-14

10-16

10-17

10-17

10-19

10-19

10-20

10-21

10-21

10-22

10-22

10-23

10-23

10-24

Table 10.6.14 LCC and National Impact Summary for All Combinations of CapacitorStart Efficiency Levels, Part One*................................................................... 10-24 

10-25

10-26

10-26

10-8

10-18

Table 10.3.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption in 2015 for Representative Product classes .................... 

Table 10.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs ................................................................................. 

Table 10.4.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Total 

Installed Cost in 2015 for Representative Product Classes ............................. 

Table 10.5.1 Trial Standard Levels for Polyphase Small Electric Motors ........................... 

Table 10.5.2 Trial Standard Levels for Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors ................... 

Table 10.6.1 Inputs to the Net Present Value Calculation.................................................... 

Table 10.6.2 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results.................. 

Table 10.6.3 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results.......... 

Table 10.6.4 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results............................. 

Table 10.6.5 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results..................... 

Table 10.6.6 Undiscounted Cumulative National Energy Savings for Capacitor-Start 

Small Electric Motors Under Different CSIR/CSCR Market Share 

Scenarios (Energy Savings between 2015 and 2045)...................................... 

Table 10.6.7 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results in the Low 

CSCR Scenario ................................................................................................ 

Table 10.6.8 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results in the High 

CSCR Scenario ................................................................................................ 

Table 10.6.9 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results in 

the Segmented Market Scenario (Market Share Shift Complete by 2015)...... 

Table 10.6.10 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results in the 

Segmented Market Scenario (Market Share Shift Complete by 2015)............ 

Table 10.6.11 Cumulative Net Present Value for Polyphase Small Electric Motors in a 

Carbon Cap and Trade Electricity Price Scenario (For Equipment Sold 

from 2015 to 2045) .......................................................................................... 

Table 10.6.12 Cumulative Net Present Value for Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors 

in a Carbon Cap and Trade Electricity Price Scenario (For Equipment Sold 

from 2015 to 2045) .......................................................................................... 

Table 10.6.13 Location and Identification of Data for Each EL Combination in Tables 

10.5.12 and 10.5.13.......................................................................................... 

Table 10.6.15 LCC and National Impact Summary for All Combinations of CapacitorStart Efficiency Levels, Part Two*.................................................................. 

Table 10.6.16 Annualized Costs and Benefits for Polyphase Small Electric Motors............. 

Table 10.6.17 Annualized Costs and Benefits for Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors..... 

LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 10.3.1 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors for Electricity............................................. 

Figure 10.6.1 Non-Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases and Annual Operating 

Cost Savings for Polyphase Small Electric Motors, Trial Standard Level 4... 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-iii

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-1 

CHAPTER 10. NATIONAL IMPACT ANALYSIS 

10.1 INTRODUCTION 

 This chapter describes the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s estimation of certain 

national impacts of potential energy conservation standards for small electric motors. Results 

described here include: (1) national energy savings (NES) from possible candidate standard 

levels (CSLs), (2) monetary value of the operating cost savings, (3) increased total installed costs 

of the considered products due to energy conservation standards, and (4) the net present value 

(NPV) of the difference between the value of operating cost savings and increased total installed 

costs. 

 DOE determined the NES and NPV for all of the energy efficiency levels considered for 

the three equipment categories of small electric motors considered for this rulemaking: (1) 

polyphase motors, (2) capacitor-start induction-run (CSIR), and (3) capacitor-start capacitor-run 

(CSCR) motors. DOE built a combined NES and NPV model for CSIR and CSCR motors, 

reflecting the fact that these motors may be used interchangeably in many applications. This 

model incorporates the shipments market share model for these motors detailed in Section 9.4. 

DOE performed all calculations for each of the considered equipment categories using a 

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet model, which is accessible on the Internet 

(<http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/>). The spreadsheet models that 

contain the national impact analysis (NIA) combine the calculations for determining the NES 

and NPV with the relevant shipments models. The shipments analysis (see chapter 9) provides a 

detailed description of the shipments models that DOE used to forecast future purchases of the 

considered equipment. 

 The small electric motors covered by this rulemaking and analysis constitute a fraction of 

all small electric motors in use throughout the United States. In residential and commercial 

contexts, most motor energy is used by appliances or systems covered by other existing 

efficiency standards (such as refrigerators and air conditioners). DOE drew upon analysis 

conducted in 1999 1

 to conclude that small electric motors less than or equal to 2 horsepower use 

approximately 300 TWh per year in the residential sector and 150 TWh per year in the 

commercial sector. This energy consumption includes the useful work conducted by the motors 

in addition to losses. DOE assumed that energy use by small motors in industrial and agricultural 

applications totals approximately half the use in commercial applications, or roughly 75 TWh per 

year. This analysis implies that total annual electricity use by small electric motors is 

approximately 525 TWh. Of this, DOE’s 1999 analysis indicates that roughly 12% of residential 

small motor energy use and 25% of commercial small motor energy use are due to motors in 

applications not covered by other efficiency standards. DOE assumed that 95% of industrial and 

agricultural small motor energy use is due to motors not covered by other efficiency standards. 

This implies that motor energy use (including useful work and losses) by small electric motors 

not covered by other efficiency standards is approximately 145 TWh per year. DOE’s national 

energy savings analysis indicates that electricity use by motors covered by this rulemaking is 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-2 

approximately 40 TWh per year (including useful work and losses). This is approximately 27% 

of the energy use by small electric motors not covered by other standards, and approximately 7% 

of the energy use by all small electric motors. 

10.2 BASE AND STANDARDS CASE EFFICIENCY DISTRIBUTIONS 

 This section describes the method DOE used to forecast the energy efficiencies of 

considered equipment under the base case and each of the potential standards cases. It provides 

efficiency distributions for the three equipment categories of small electric motors considered for 

this rulemaking. 

10.2.1 Base Case Efficiency Distribution 

 DOE did not have access to motor shipment data as a function of efficiency for any 

product classes. DOE studied manufacturer catalogs to determine the current distribution of 

motor efficiency among the levels considered in this analysis. Not all motors listed in 

manufacturer catalogs included information regarding the motor’s full-load or nominal (NEMA) 

efficiency. Therefore, the Department used the number of models with a published efficiency 

rating as a proxy for the number of shipments. DOE did not develop separate efficiency 

distributions for each product class. Instead, it used a single efficiency distribution for each 

motor category (polyphase, CSIR, and CSCR), derived from the distribution of models within 

each category. 

 Table 10.2.1 shows DOE’s estimated current efficiency distribution for polyphase, CSIR, 

and CSCR motors. DOE assumed that, in the absence of standards (the base case), this 

distribution would remain fixed over the analysis period. 

Table 10.2.1 Base Case Efficiency Distributions 

Efficiency Market Share (%) 

Level Polyphase CSIR CSCR 

Baseline 82.0 40.0 67.0

1 4.0 7.0 10.0

2 4.0 20.0 2.0

3 4.0 30.0 2.0

4 6.0 2.0 11.0

5 0.0 1.0 3.0

6 0.0 0.0 5.0

7 0.0 0.0 0.0

8 - - 0.0

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-3 

10.2.2 Standards Case Efficiency Distributions 

 DOE used a simple “roll up” approach to forecast efficiency distributions in the case of 

standards. That is, DOE assumed that motor customers who would have purchased motors with a 

rated efficiency below that of the minimum efficiency required by the standard would instead 

purchase motors which exactly met the standard. Customers who would have purchased motors 

above the minimum required by the standard are unaffected, so the market shares in those 

efficiency levels remain unchanged. 

 Tables 10.2.2, 10.2.3, and 10.2.4 show the resulting efficiency distributions the 

Department used for each standards case. For example, in the case of a standard for polyphase 

motors at efficiency level 1, the 82 percent of purchases at the baseline efficiency level would 

roll up to level 1, yielding a total share of 86 percent, while the shares above level 1 are 

unaffected. 

Table 10.2.2 Polyphase Motor Efficiency Market Shares in the Base and Standards 

Cases 

Standard Market Share (%) 

Case 

Efficiency 

Level 

Baseline Effic. 

Level 1 

Effic. 

Level 2 

Effic. 

Level 3 

Effic. 

Level 4 

Effic. 

Level 5 

Effic. 

Level 6 

Effic. 

Level 7 

Baseline 82.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

1 0.0 86.0 4.0 4.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

2 0.0 0.0 90.0 4.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

3 0.0 0.0 0.0 94.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0

6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0

7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

Table 10.2.3 CSIR Motor Efficiency Market Shares in the Base and Standards Cases 

Standard Market Share (%) 

Case 

Efficiency 

Level 

Baseline Effic. 

Level 1 

Effic. 

Level 2 

Effic. 

Level 3 

Effic. 

Level 4 

Effic. 

Level 5 

Effic. 

Level 6 

Effic. 

Level 7 

Baseline 40.0 7.0 20.0 30.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

1 0.0 47.0 20.0 30.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

2 0.0 0.0 67.0 30.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

3 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0 1.0 0.0 0.0

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0

6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0

7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
Table 10.2.4 CSCR Motor Efficiency Market Shares in the Base and Standards Cases 

Standard Market Share (%) 

Case 

Efficiency 

Level 

Baseline Effic. 

Level 

1 

Effic. 

Level 

2 

Effic. 

Level 

3 

Effic. 

Level 

4 

Effic. 

Level 

5 

Effic. 

Level 

6 

Effic. 

Level 

7 

Effic. 

Level 

8 

Baseline 67.0 10.0 2.0 2.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0

1 0.0 77.0 2.0 2.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0

2 0.0 0.0 79.0 2.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0

3 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.0 11.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0

4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.0 3.0 5.0 0.0 0.0

5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95.0 5.0 0.0 0.0

6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0 0.0

7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0

8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0

10.3 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS 

10.3.1 National Energy Savings Definition 

 DOE calculates annual NES in each year as the difference between energy consumption 

of the equipment stock using the average unit energy consumption (UEC) of the stock in the base 

case (without new standards) compared with a case with new standards. 

( ) ( ) ( ) class class classbase classstd yNES yAffStock yUEC , yUEC , = × )( − )(

 

Where: 

AffStock(y)class = the stock of equipment sold after the year of the standard that is still in 

operation in year y (the “affected stock”), 

UEC(y)base class = the unit energy consumption in the base case in year y, and 

UEC(y)std. class = the unit energy consumption in the standard case in year y. 

 The affected stock in year y is given by 

( ) () ( )class

y

stdyri

class class yAffStock = ∑ −× iySurviS =

 

 The stock in year y is dependent on the number of shipments S(y)class in past years, 

multiplied by the survival function Surv(v), the fraction of shipments surviving until age v

10-4 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
(vintage). Only shipments occurring after the effective year of the standard (stdyr) are considered 

for the calculation of NES, since shipments before this date will not be affected by the standard, 

and thus will produce no savings. 

 

 Cumulative energy savings are the sum of the annual national energy savings over a 

defined time period (in this case, from 2015 until 2045): 

∑ ( ) =

=

2045

stdyry

cum NES yNES

10.3.2 National Energy Savings Inputs 

 Table 10.2.1 lists the inputs for the determination of national energy savings. The 

following sections discuss each input. 

Table 10.3.1 National Energy Saving Inputs 

Annual Energy Consumption per Unit (UEC) 

Shipments 

Equipment Stock (STOCKV) 

National Annual Energy Consumption (AEC) 

Site-to-Source Conversion Factor (src_conv) 

10.3.2.1 Annual Energy Consumption per Unit 

 For each of the representative product classes, DOE presented the per-unit annual energy 

consumption as a function of equipment energy efficiency in the energy use determination (see 

chapter 7). Because the per-unit annual energy consumption is directly dependent on energy 

efficiency, DOE used the base case and standards case shipment-weighted energy efficiencies 

presented above in section 10.2, in combination with the annual energy use data presented in the 

energy use determination (see chapter 7), to estimate the shipment-weighted average annual perunit energy consumption under the base case and standards cases for each of the three 

representative product classes (4-pole 1 hp polyphase, 3⁄4 hp CSCR, and 1⁄2 hp CSIR). 

 DOE also used the power factor of its motor designs in the representative product classes 

to determine the shipment-weighted reactive power requirements of motors of varying 

efficiency. Reactive power is measured in Kilovolt Amperes-reactive (kVAr). Table 10.3.2 

shows the shipment-weighted annual energy use and reactive power for each of these product 

classes. 

10-5 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-6 

Table 10.3.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Annual 

Energy Consumption in 2015 for Representative Product classes 

Efficiency Level Product class Base 

Case 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 

Efficiency (%) 77.2 78.7 80.0 81.6 82.5 85.2 86.4 88.3 -

Annual Energy 

Use (kWh/yr)* 442 418 387 339 324 244 225 189 - Polyphase 1 HP, 

4 poles 

Reactive 

Power (kVAr) 0.90 0.90 0.87 0.78 0.79 0.76 0.75 0.77 -

Efficiency (%) 57.7 59.5 62.0 64.2 68.5 71.2 73.0 77.0 -

Annual Energy 

Use (kWh/yr)* 557 536 507 471 383 334 304 238 - Single Phase – 

CSIR, 1⁄2 HP, 4 

poles Reactive 

Power (kVAr) 0.81 0.80 0.78 0.73 0.61 0.69 0.63 0.53 -

Efficiency (%) 71.0 74.3 78.3 80.3 81.6 82.7 83.5 85.4 87.3

Annual Energy 

Use (kWh/yr)* 438 396 310 274 278 267 260 216 184

Single Phase –

CSCR, 3⁄4 HP, 4 

poles Reactive 

Power (kVAr) 0.65 0.50 0.40 0.38 0.17 0.16 0.04 0.10 0.08

* Kilowatt hours per year, losses only. 

DOE used the loss scaling relations detailed in chapter 5 to scale the losses from the 

representative product class within each motor category to each of the other product classes. In 

this way, the Department was able to develop a shipment-weighted sum of all annual motor 

losses across each motor category (see section 10.3.2.3). 

For some types of equipment, a “rebound effect” can occur when more efficient 

equipment is used more intensely in response to the economic savings from energy efficiency. 

Accounting for a rebound effect will decrease energy savings compared to a scenario with no 

rebound effect. Small electric motors are predominantly components of larger pieces of 

equipment or an integrated production process. Typically, energy losses from inefficient 

operation of the larger equipment or process that contains a small electric motor are much greater 

than losses due to inefficiencies of the individual motor. In addition, customers rarely have direct 

control over the intensity of motor operation. Given these considerations and a lack of data 

indicating a rebound effect for small electric motors, DOE assumed that there is no significant 

rebound effect for this equipment. 

10.3.2.2 Shipments and Equipment Stock 

 An extensive description of the methodology for conducting and generating the 

shipments forecasts for each of the considered product classes can be found in chapter 9. The 

equipment stock in a given year is the number of motors shipped from earlier years that survive 

in the given year. The NIA models keep track of the number of units shipped each year. DOE 

assumes that the motors have an increasing probability of retiring as they age. The probability of 

survival as a function of years-since-purchase is the survival function. Please refer to the life 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
cycle cost analysis (see chapter 8) for further details on the motor lifetimes that DOE used in its 

analysis. In the NIA, DOE used shipment-weighted average energy use, corresponding roughly 

to average hours of operation. Therefore, in the NIA there is no correlation between annual hours 

of operation and motor lifetime, as there is in the life-cycle cost analysis. 

 The survival function used in the NIA for each motor category is the aggregate survival 

function for motors within that category. Because DOE’s forecasts of shipments are based on 

economic drivers, rather than explicit replacements and growth within a particular customer 

base, motors with shorter lifetimes constitute a larger fraction of motor shipments than they 

constitute of the installed motor stock. DOE uses the shipment-weighted annual energy 

consumption, which accounts for the fact that these motors use a larger fraction of the energy 

than they constitute of the installed motor stock. 

10.3.2.3 National Annual Energy Consumption 

 The national annual energy consumption (AEC) is calculated in the base case and 

standards cases and is the product of the annual energy consumption per unit and the number of 

units of each vintage: 

( ) ( ) class class class yAEC =UEC × yStock

Where: 

UECclass = the unit energy consumption for a given class

Stock(y)class = the stock of equipment in year y

The Department summed the UEC for each product class within each motor category to 

determine the total energy used for each category of motors in each year during the analysis 

period. 

10.3.2.4 Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factors 

 In determining national annual energy savings, DOE initially calculated the annual 

energy consumption at the site (e.g., for electricity, the energy in kWh consumed at the 

household, commercial building, farm, or industrial facility). It then calculated primary (source) 

energy savings from site energy consumption by applying a conversion factor to account for 

losses associated with the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity. The site-tosource conversion factor is the multiplicative factor used for converting site energy consumption 

into primary or source energy consumption, expressed in quads. 

 DOE used annual site-to-source conversion factors based on the version of the National 

Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that corresponds to the American Recovery and Reinvestment 

10-7 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
Act scenario of the U.S. DOE/Energy Information Administration (EIA)’s Annual Energy 

Outlook 2009 (AEO2009).2 The factors used are marginal values, which represent the response 

of the system to an incremental decrease in consumption. For electricity, the conversion factors 

vary over time, due to projected changes in generation sources (i.e., the power plant types 

projected to provide electricity to the country). NEMS outputs stop in 2030; DOE assumed that 

conversion factors remain constant at 2030 values throughout the remainder of the forecast 

period. Figure 10.2.1 shows the site-to-source conversion factors between 2005 and 2030 for 

electricity. 

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Btu/kWh

Figure 10.3.1 Site-to-Source Conversion Factors for Electricity 

 DOE also developed an estimate of the energy losses in the transmission and distribution 

system due to the reactive power needed by small electric motors. Reactive power is not 

consumed within the motor, but the necessary power must be generated by utilities and is 

manifested as larger currents in the transmission and distribution system than would be required 

if every load required only active power (that is, had a power factor of 1.0). The conversion 

factor between the reactive power (in giga-VAr) required by motors and the site requirements 

(primary energy) for that reactive power is: 

10-8 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
 ( )

mid

active trans reactive LossAdj

LossSSRP AvgHours PE × × × = 2

Where: 

PEreactive = annual primary energy, in quads, required to meet the reactive power load, 

RP = reactive load, in GVAr, required by motors, 

S2Sactive = the site-to-source conversion factor for active power, 

Losstrans = 6.33%, the national average energy loss in transmission and distribution, 

AvgHours = the average annual hours of motor operation, and 

LossAdjmid = a conversion factor, equal to 1+ Losstrans , which accounts for the assignment of 

transmission and distribution losses to the midpoint of the route between site and 

source. 

10.4 NET PRESENT VALUE 

10.4.1 Net Present Value Definition 

 The NPV is the value in the present of a time series of costs and savings. The NPV is 

described by the equation: 

∑( )×−=

y

NPV ( yDFyCyS )()()

Where: 

S(y) = value of operating cost savings (including energy, repair, and maintenance costs) 

in year y, and 

C(y) = value of increased total installed costs (including equipment purchase cost and 

installation). 

DF(y) = discount factor in each year, 

 DOE calculated the total annual operating cost savings by multiplying the number or 

stock of the given product class (by vintage) by its per-unit operating cost (also by vintage) in the 

base case and standards case, and subtracting to calculate the savings. DOE calculated the total 

annual installed cost increases by multiplying the number or stock of the given product class (by 

vintage) by its per-unit total installed cost (also by vintage) in the base case and standards case, 

and subtracting to calculate the increase. The calculation of the annual operating costs savings 

and total annual installed cost increases is represented with the following equations: 

yOCS )( = ∑ yUOCS )( × yAffStock )(

10-9 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
yTIC )( =Δ ∑ yxSyUTIC )()(

Where: 

OCS = total annual operating cost savings each year summed over vintages of the affected 

equipment stock, AffStock(y), 

ΔTIC = total annual installed cost increases each year summed over vintages of the affected 

equipment stock, AffStock(y), 

S(y)= stock of motors of vintage V surviving in the year for which DOE calculated annual 

energy consumption, 

UOCS(y) = annual operating cost savings per unit in year y, 

UTIC(y) = annual total installed cost increase per unit in year y, and 

y = year in the forecast. 

 DOE calculated a discount factor from the discount rate and the number of years between 

the “present” (i.e., year to which the sum is being discounted ─ 2009 for all NPV quantities 

presented in this TSD) and the year in which the costs and savings occur. The NPV is the sum 

over time of the discounted net savings. 

10.4.2 Net Present Value Inputs 

 Table 10.3.1 summarizes the inputs to the net present value calculation. 

Table 10.4.1 Net Present Value Inputs 

Total Installed Cost per Unit 

Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit 

Total Annual Installed Cost Increases 

Total Annual Operating Costs 

Discount Factor 

Present Value of Costs 

Present Value of Savings 

 The increase in the total annual installed cost is equal to the annual change in the per-unit 

total installed cost (difference between each standards case and base case) multiplied by the 

shipments forecasted in the standards case. 

 The total annual operating cost savings are equal to the difference in the annual 

operating costs between the base case and each standards case, calculated by multiplying the cost 

to operate each unit by the shipments forecasted in the base and standards cases. The annual 

operating cost includes energy, repair, and maintenance costs. 

10-10 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-11 

10.4.2.1 Total Installed Cost per Unit 

 For each of the representative product classes, DOE presented the per-unit total installed 

cost as a function of equipment energy efficiency in the life-cycle cost and payback period 

analysis (see chapter 8.) Because the per-unit total annual installed cost is directly dependent on 

energy efficiency, DOE used the base case and standards case shipment-weighted energy 

efficiencies presented above in section 10.2, in combination with the total installed costs 

presented in the life-cycle cost and payback period analysis, to estimate the shipment-weighted 

average annual per-unit total installed cost under the base case and standards cases for each of 

the three representative product classes. These averages are shown in Table 10.4.2. As in the lifecycle cost analysis, DOE assumed that 20% of the motors were space-constrained. 

Table 10.4.2 Small Electric Motors: Shipment-Weighted Average Per-Unit Total Installed 

Cost in 2015 for Representative Product Classes 

Efficiency Level Product class Base 

Case 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 

Efficiency (%) 77.2 78.7 80.0 81.6 82.5 85.2 86.4 88.3 - Polyphase 1 

HP, 4 poles Total Installed 

Cost (2008$) $516 $526 $532 $543 $550 $643 $697 $1,446 -

Single Phase – Efficiency (%) 57.7 59.5 62.0 64.2 68.5 71.2 73.0 77.0 -

CSIR, 1⁄2 HP, 4 

poles Total Installed 

Cost (2008$) $500 $504 $506 $508 $525 $543 $587 $977 -

Single Phase –, Efficiency (%) 71.0 74.3 78.3 80.3 81.6 82.7 83.5 85.4 87.3

CSCR, 3⁄4 HP, 

4 poles Total Installed 

Cost (2008$) $560 $567 $589 $597 $610 $622 $668 $686 $1,496

DOE used the price scaling relations derived in its life-cycle cost analysis (see chapter 8) 

to develop shipment-weighted average motor installed costs for each product class. This allowed 

the Department to weight the total installed cost increases by the distribution of motor shipments 

across product classes. 

As noted in section 10.2, DOE assumed that forecasted energy efficiencies in the base 

case and standards cases remain constant at the energy efficiency levels in the effective year. 

Therefore, because the per-unit total installed costs are a function of energy efficiency, DOE held 

the installed cost constant over the forecast period. 

10.4.2.2 Annual Operating Cost Savings per Unit 

 The per-unit annual operating cost includes the energy, reactive power, repair, and 

maintenance costs. DOE determined the per-unit annual operating cost savings by taking the perunit annual energy consumption savings developed for each product class and multiplying it by 

the appropriate energy and reactive power prices. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
 DOE forecasted the per-unit annual energy consumption for the base case and each 

standards case by fixing the consumption at levels estimated for the effective year. 

 DOE forecasted energy prices based on the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act

scenario of EIA’s AEO2009. The energy prices and energy price trends are described in chapter 

8. 

10.4.2.3 Total Annual Installed Cost Increases 

 The total annual installed cost increase for any given standards case is the product of the 

total installed cost increase per unit due to the standard and the number of units shipped each 

year. The equation for determining the total annual installed cost increase for a given standards 

case was shown in section 10.4.1 and is repeated here: 

 

yTIC )( = ∑ yxSyUTIC )()(

10.4.2.4 Total Annual Operating Cost Savings 

 The total annual operating cost savings for any given standards case is the product of the 

annual operating cost savings per unit due to the standard and the number of units of each 

vintage. The equation for determining the total annual operating cost savings for a given 

standards case was shown in section 10.4.1 and is repeated here: 

 

yOCS )( = ∑ yUOCS )( × yAffStock )(

10.4.2.5 Discount Factors 

 DOE multiplies monetary values in future years by a discount factor to determine the 

present value. The discount factor (DF) is described by the equation: 

)ypy( _

)r(

DF

+1

1

= 

Where: 

r = discount rate, 

y = year of the monetary value, and 

yP = year in which the present value is being determined. 

 DOE estimated national impacts with both a three-percent and a seven-percent real 

discount rate. It used these discount rates in accordance with the Office of Management and 

Budget (OMB)’s guidance to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory analysis (OMB 

10-12 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-13 

Circular A-4, September 17, 2003), and section E., “Identifying and Measuring Benefits and 

Costs,” therein. DOE defines the present year as 2009. 

10.4.2.6 Present Value of Costs 

 The present value of increased installed costs is the annual installed cost increase in each 

year (i.e., the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to the present, 

and summed for the time period over which DOE is considering the installation of equipment 

(i.e., from the effective date of energy conservation standards through 30 years later). 

 The increase in total installed cost refers to both equipment purchase cost and installation 

cost associated with the higher energy efficiency of products purchased in the standards case 

compared to the base case. DOE calculated annual increases in installed costs as the difference 

between the total installed cost for all new products purchased each year in the base case and in 

the standards case. (DOE assumed that total motor sales were inelastic – see section 9.4.1 – so 

that total shipments are unchanged between the base and standards cases.) 

10.4.2.7 Present Value of Savings 

 The present value of operating cost savings is the annual operating cost savings (i.e., the 

difference between the base case and standards case) discounted to the present, and summed over 

the period from the effective date to the time when the last unit installed is retired from service. 

 Savings are decreases in operating costs (including energy, repair, and maintenance 

costs) associated with the higher energy efficiency of equipment purchased in a standards case 

compared to the base case. Total annual operating cost savings are the savings per unit multiplied 

by the number of units of each vintage surviving in a particular year. Equipment consumes 

energy over its entire lifetime, and for units purchased in the last year, the consumption includes 

energy consumed until the unit is retired from service. 

10.5 TRIAL STANDARD LEVELS 

DOE generated NES and NPV results based on trial standard levels (TSLs). The TSLs are 

based on the following: (1) efficiency levels corresponding to designs of motors in representative 

product classes, characterized in the engineering analysis, (2) the efficiency level identified with the 

maximum efficiency, and (3) a combination of efficiency levels for different product categories that 

have potentially positive impacts on consumers and the Nation. The efficiency levels considered 

were those analyzed in the engineering analysis (chapter 5), for which the Department designed 

motors utilizing technologically feasible design options. The Department analyzed the national 

impacts of a set of trial standard levels (TSLs) for polyphase motors and a set of TSLs for 

capacitor-start motors. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-14 

10.5.1 Polyphase Small Electric Motors 

The polyphase TSLs, listed in Table 10.5.1, correspond to the efficiency levels described 

in the engineering analysis (chapter 5) and life-cycle cost analysis (chapter 8). DOE used the 

price and energy use relations developed in the engineering and LCC analyses to assign costs 

and efficiencies to motors in product classes other than the representative product class (4 poles, 

1 horsepower). 

Table 10.5.1 Trial Standard Levels for Polyphase Small Electric Motors 

Trial Standard 

Level Efficiency Level 

4 pole, 1 Hp Full Load 

Efficiency 

% 

1 1 78.7 

2 2 80.0 

3 3 81.6 

4 4 82.5 

5 5 85.2 

6 6 86.4 

7** 7 88.3 

*Standard levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency. 

** Maximum technologically feasible efficiency level 

10.5.2 Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors 

 Trial standard levels for capacitor-start motors are composed of efficiency level standards 

for both CSIR and CSCR motors. The Department chose to analyze a subset of all possible 

combinations of CSIR and CSCR efficiency levels as its TSLs for capacitor-start motors. Table 

10.5.2 shows the combinations the Department selected. 

Table 10.5.2 Trial Standard Levels for Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors 

Trial 

Standard 

Level 

CSIR Efficiency 

Level 

CSIR 4 pole 0.50 Hp 

Full Load Efficiency 

% 

CSCR Efficiency 

Level 

CSCR 4 pole 0.75 Hp 

Full Load Efficiency 

% 

1 4 68.5 2 78.3 

2 4 68.5 3 80.3 

3 5 71.2 3 80.3 

4 6 73.0 4 81.6 

5 6 73.0 3 80.3 

6** 7 77.0 8 87.3 

7 7 77.0 3 80.3 

8 7 77.0 7 85.4 

*Standard Levels are expressed in terms of full-load efficiency. 

** Maximum technologically feasible efficiency levels 

 Trial standard level 1 corresponds to an efficiency level combination considered by motor 

manufacturers to be comparable to the EPACT 1992 efficiencies for polyphase medium motors. 

It consists of the combination of efficiency level 4 for CSIR motors and efficiency level 2 for 

CSCR motors. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-15 

 TSL 2 consists of the combination of EL 4 for CSIR motors and EL 3 for CSCR motors. 

This combination has the highest energy savings and net present value of any level combination 

utilizing CSIR EL 4. 

 TSL 3 consists of the combination of EL 5 for CSIR motors and EL 3 for CSCR motors. 

This combination has the highest energy savings and net present value of any level combination 

utilizing CSIR EL 5. 

 TSL 4 consists of the combination of EL 6 for CSIR motors and EL 4 for CSCR motors. 

In the “High CSCR” sensitivity case, TSL 4 has the highest energy savings of any level 

combination utilizing CSIR EL 6. 

 TSL 5 consists of the combination of EL 6 for CSIR motors and EL 3 for CSCR motors. 

In the Departments’ reference scenarios, TSL 5 has the highest energy savings and net present 

value of any level combination utilizing CSIR EL 6. This combination is considered by motor 

manufacturers to be comparable to NEMA Premium efficiency levels for polyphase medium 

motors. 

 TSL 6 consists of the combination of EL 7 for CSIR motors and EL 8 for CSCR motors. 

These levels are the maximum technologically feasible levels for both motor categories. 

 TSL 7 consists of the combination of EL 7 for CSIR motors and EL 3 for CSCR motors. 

TSL 7 has the highest net present value of any level combination utilizing CSIR EL 7. Under 

some sensitivity scenarios, as well as the Department’s reference scenario with a 3% discount 

rate, this level has the highest NPV of any combination of CSIR and CSCR efficiency levels. 

 TSL 8 consists of the combination of EL 7 for CSIR motors and EL 7 for CSCR motors. 

This combination exhibits the greatest energy savings of any combination of CSIR and CSCR 

efficiency levels. 

 Section 10.6.6 discusses national impact results for all possible combinations of CSIR 

and CSCR efficiency levels, including those not selected as TSLs. 

10.6 NATIONAL ENERGY SAVINGS AND NET PRESENT VALUE RESULTS 

 The NIA model provides estimates of the NES and NPV for standards set at various 

efficiency levels. The inputs to the NIA model have been discussed earlier in sections 10.3.2

(NES Inputs) and 10.4.2 (NPV Inputs). DOE generated the NES and NPV results using a 

Microsoft Excel spreadsheet, which is accessible on the Internet 

(http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/commercial/small_electric_motors.html). 

Details and instructions for using the spreadsheet are provided in Appendix 10-A, User 

Instructions for National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-16 

Table 10.6.1summarizes the inputs to the NIA model. 

Table 10.6.1 Inputs to the Net Present Value Calculation 

Input Data Description 

Shipments Annual shipments for each product class from shipments model. (See 

chapter 9.) 

Effective Date of Standard 2015 

Base Case Forecasted Energy Consumption Shipment-weighted unit energy consumption (UEC), based on 

efficiency and hours of operation 

Standards Case Energy Consumption The UEC for each standards case, based on efficiency and hours of 

operation. 

Annual Energy Consumption per Unit Annual weighted-average values for each product class are a function 

of shipment-weighted UEC. 

Total Installed Cost per Unit Annual weighted-average values for each product class are a function 

of efficiency level. 

Energy Cost per Unit Annual weighted-average values are a function of the annual UEC 

and energy prices. (See chapters 7 and 8.) 

Repair Cost and Maintenance Cost per Unit Annual values are constant, and not a function of efficiency level. 

(See chapter 8.) 

Trend in Energy Prices Based on EIA AEO2009 forecasts (to 2030) and extrapolation to 

2065. (See chapter 8.) 

Energy Site-to-Source Conversion Factor Conversion varies yearly and is generated by DOE/EIA’s NEMS* 

program (a time series conversion factor; includes electric generation, 

transmission, and distribution losses). 

Discount Rate 3 percent and 7 percent real. 

Present Year Future expenses are discounted to year 2009. 

* Chapter 13 on the Utility Impact Analysis and the Environmental Assessment Report provide more detail on 

NEMS. 

10.6.2 National Energy Savings Results 

 The following sections provide NES results for the standards cases analyzed for 

polyphase and capacitor-start motors. NES results are cumulative to 2045 and are shown as 

primary energy savings. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, 

yielding results that are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as in the lifecycle cost and payback period analysis. 

 Table 10.6.2 and Table 10.6.3 show the NES results for the trial standard levels (TSLs) 

analyzed for small electric motors. For polyphase motors, the TSLs correspond to the efficiency 

levels analyzed in the engineering and LCC analyses. For capacitor-start motors, the TSLs 

consist of combinations of efficiency levels for CSIR and CSCR motors, as shown in Table 

10.6.3. The capacitor-start values are presented as ranges, indicating the effects of the rate and 

timing of market share shifts (see section 9.4.4). The two values in the range correspond to (1) a 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-17 

ten-year market share shift beginning in 2015 and (2) a market share shift complete by the start 

of the analysis period in 2015. 

Table 10.6.2 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

National Energy Savings (quads)* 

Trial 

standard level 

Discounted 

at 3% 

Discounted at 

7% 

1 0.04 0.02 0.01 

2 0.09 0.05 0.02 

3 0.18 0.09 0.04 

4 0.21 0.10 0.05 

5 0.33 0.17 0.08 

6 0.36 0.19 0.09 

7 0.41 0.21 0.10 

* Quadrillion British thermal units. 

Table 10.6.3 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results 

Trial National Energy Savings (quads) 

standard 

level 

CSIR 

Efficiency 

Level 

CSCR 

Efficiency 

Level 

Discounted 

at 3% 

Discounted 

at 7% 

1 4 2 1.08 0.56 – 0.57 0.26 – 0.27 

2 4 3 1.10 0.57 0.27 

3 5 3 1.28 – 1.29 0.67 0.32 

4 6 4 1.53 0.80 0.37 

5 6 3 1.53 0.80 0.37 – 0.38 

6 7 8 1.91 – 1.92 1.00 0.47 

7 7 3 2.10 – 2.13 1.09 – 1.11 0.51 – 0.52 

8 7 7 2.51 – 2.61 1.29 – 1.37 0.59 – 0.64 

10.6.3 Annual Costs and Savings 

 To illustrate the basic inputs to the NPV calculations, Figure 10.6.1 presents the nondiscounted annual installed cost increases and annual operating cost savings at the national level 

for TSL 4 for polyphase small electric motors. The figure also shows the net savings, which is 

the difference between the savings and costs for each year. The annual equipment cost is the sum 

of the increase in the total installed cost for equipment purchased each year over the forecast 

period. The annual operating cost savings is the savings in operating costs for equipment 

operating in each year. The NPV is the difference between the cumulative annual discounted 

savings and the cumulative annual discounted costs. DOE could create figures like the one 

shown below for each of the considered standards cases for each product class. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
-0.05

-0.025

0

0.025

0.05

0.075

0.1

0.125

0.15

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065

Billions of 2008$

Operating Cost Savings

Equipment Cost

Net Savings

Figure 10.6.1 Non-Discounted Annual Installed Cost Increases 

and Annual Operating Cost Savings for Polyphase 

Small Electric Motors, Trial Standard Level 4 

10.6.4 Net Present Value Results 

 The following sections provide NPV results for the TSLs analyzed for small electric 

motors. Results are cumulative and are shown as the discounted value of the net savings in dollar 

terms. DOE based the inputs to the NIA model on weighted-average values, yielding results that 

are discrete point values, rather than a distribution of values as in the life-cycle cost and payback 

period analysis. 

 The present value of increased total installed costs is the total annual installed cost 

increase (i.e., the difference between the standards case and base case), discounted to the present, 

and summed over the time period in which DOE evaluates the impact of energy conservation 

standards. Savings are decreases in operating costs associated with the higher energy efficiency 

of equipment purchased in the standards cases compared to the base case. Total operating cost 

savings are the savings per unit multiplied by the number of units of each vintage (i.e., the year 

of manufacture) surviving in a particular year. For units purchased up through the final year 

(2045), the operating cost includes energy consumed until the last unit is retired from service. 

10-18 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-19 

Table 10.6.4 and Table 10.6.5 show the NPV results for the trial standard levels analyzed 

for small electric motors. The highest TSL that has a positive NPV for both discount rates is TSL 

5 for polyphase motors and TSL 8 for capacitor-start motors. The capacitor-start values are 

presented as ranges, indicating the effects of the rate and timing of market share shifts (see 

section 9.4.4). 

Table 10.6.4 Polyphase Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results 

Trial Net Present Value (billion 2008$) 

Standard 

Level 3% Discount Rate 7% Discount Rate 

1 0.15 0.05 

2 0.48 0.18 

3 1.01 0.39 

4 1.07 0.40 

5 0.56 0.06 

6 -0.09 -0.29 

7 -12.21 -6.38 

Table 10.6.5 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results

Trial Net Present Value (billion 2008$) 

Standard 

Level 

CSIR 

Efficiency 

Level 

CSCR 

Efficiency 

Level 

3% Discount 

Rate 

7% Discount 

Rate 

1 4 2 6.47 – 6.52 2.66 – 2.69 

2 4 3 6.62 – 6.66 2.72 – 2.75 

3 5 3 7.24 – 7.28 2.90 – 2.93 

4 6 4 6.00 – 6.05 2.15 – 2.18 

5 6 3 6.28 – 6.38 2.27 – 2.34 

6 7 8 -22.62 – -22.47 -12.40 – -12.28 

7 7 3 7.75 – 13.59 1.47 – 5.67 

8 7 7 5.51 – 10.84 0.29 – 4.09 

10.6.5 Sensitivity of NES and NPV to Model Inputs 

 The Department analyzed the effects of variation in many inputs to its NIA model. For 

both polyphase and capacitor-start motors, DOE analyzed four shipment growth scenarios, four 

electricity price forecasts, three shipment elasticity scenarios (see section 9.4.1), and three ways 

of accounting for reactive power charges. For capacitor-start motors, the Department also 

analyzed the impact of variation in the parameters of its CSIR-CSCR market share model 

(described in chapter 9). Appendix 10C shows the sensitivity of NES and NPV results (as well as 

each of their constituent parts) to these different inputs. The appendix includes capacitor-start 

sensitivity results with a market share transition complete by 2015. The spreadsheet tool allows 

the user to choose any combination of the scenarios whose results are included in the appendix, 

including a longer market share transition time. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-20 

 Tables 10.6.6-10.6.9 show the results of the NES and NPV calculations in the Low CSCR 

and High CSCR alternative scenarios. The High CSCR and Low CSCR scenarios have 

significant differences from the reference case on the magnitude (and in some cases the sign) of 

the NES and NPV results. The High CSCR and Low CSCR scenarios correspond to changing the 

“unfamiliarity cost” associated with CSCR motors; this cost is the parameter δ in the market 

share model described in section 9.4.4. The Department’s reference case is based on the value for 

this parameter which best fits the current market share of CSCR motors in different product 

classes, $186. The Low CSCR scenario is based on a value for this parameter which is higher by 

one standard deviation ($278), and the High CSCR scenario is based on a value for this 

parameter which is lower by one standard deviation ($94). All three scenarios use the same 

values for the installed costs and motor losses, but their forecasts regarding resulting customer 

behavior in response to standards differ. CSCR motors are commonly more efficient than CSIR 

motors, particularly for larger motors. The High CSCR scenario, which models a market in 

which more customers switch from CSIR to CSCR motors than in the reference case, has higher 

energy savings. The Low CSCR scenario, in contrast, shows smaller energy savings. 

 DOE’s uncertainty in this model is the largest uncertainty in its modeling of the NES and 

NPV for capacitor-start motors, so the results of these alternative scenarios are presented here 

(Tables 10.6.6-10.6.8) to demonstrate the effect of this uncertainty on the national results of the 

analysis. 

Table 10.6.6 Undiscounted Cumulative National Energy Savings for Capacitor-Start 

Small Electric Motors Under Different CSIR/CSCR Market Share 

Scenarios (Energy Savings between 2015 and 2045) 

National Energy Savings (quads) 

Trial Standard Level 

Low CSCR 

Scenario 

Reference 

Scenario 

High CSCR 

Scenario 

1 1.05 – 1.06 1.08 1.30 – 1.33 

2 1.05 – 1.06 1.10 1.40 – 1.45 

3 1.25 – 1.26 1.28 – 1.29 1.51 – 1.54 

4 1.47 – 1.48 1.53 1.77 – 1.82 

5 1.47 – 1.48 1.53 1.76 – 1.80 

6 1.91 – 1.92 1.91 – 1.92 1.91 – 1.92 

7 2.09 – 2.12 2.10 – 2.13 2.10 – 2.13 

8 2.45 – 2.53 2.51 – 2.61 2.51 – 2.61 

For many customers, particularly those using more powerful motors, CSCR motors are 

not only more efficient but also more cost effective. The High CSCR scenario models a market 

in which motor customers feel smaller barriers to switch to CSCR motors, and it has a higher 

NPV for each trial standard level than the reference case, whereas the Low CSCR scenario has a 

lower NPV. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-21 

Table 10.6.7 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results in the 

Low CSCR Scenario 

Net Present Value (billion 2008$) 

Trial Standard Level 7% discount rate 3% discount rate 

1 2.53 – 2.59 6.18 – 6.28 

2 2.55 – 2.61 6.23 – 6.33 

3 2.75 – 2.82 6.91 – 7.01 

4 1.76 – 1.83 5.15 – 5.26 

5 1.79 – 1.86 5.23 – 5.32 

6 -12.40 – -12.12 -22.62 – -22.47 

7 0.88 – 4.88 6.44 – 12.00 

8 -0.86 – 2.56 2.93 – 7.73 

Table 10.6.8 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results in the 

High CSCR Scenario 

Net Present Value (billion 2008$) 

Trial Standard Level 7% discount rate 3% discount rate 

1 3.42 – 3.62 8.35 – 8.66 

2 3.67 – 3.93 8.99 – 9.40 

3 3.73 – 3.96 9.27 – 9.61 

4 3.28 – 3.68 8.69 – 9.28 

5 3.56 – 4.05 9.33 – 10.04 

6 -12.40 – -12.28 -22.62 – -22.46 

7 1.51 – 5.73 7.85 – 13.71 

8 0.43 – 4.28 5.82 – 11.22 

 DOE also calculated the energy savings and NPV of standards in the case of a segmented 

market model. This model treats space-constrained and non-space-constrained customers 

separately when determining the market share of CSIR and CSCR motors. This model predicts a 

strong market response in which space constrained CSIR motor customers in TSLs 7 and 8 

switch to CSCR motors, while predicting smaller impacts on non-space-constrained customers. 

The shipments which result from this model are described in chapter 9. Table 10.6.9 and Table 

10.6.10 show the energy savings and net present value for capacitor-start motors in the 

segmented market model. The values presented here correspond to a market share shift which 

occurs entirely before 2015, in anticipation of the standard. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-22 

Table 10.6.9 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative National Energy Savings Results in 

the Segmented Market Scenario (Market Share Shift Complete by 2015) 

Trial National Energy Savings (quads) 

standard 

level 

Discounted 

at 3% 

Discounted 

at 7% 

1 1.08 0.56 0.26 

2 1.10 0.57 0.27 

3 1.29 0.67 0.32 

4 1.53 0.80 0.38 

5 1.53 0.80 0.38 

6 1.91 1.00 0.47 

7 1.92 1.00 0.47 

8 2.04 1.06 0.50 

Table 10.6.10 Capacitor-Start Motors: Cumulative Net Present Value Results in the 

Segmented Market Scenario (Market Share Shift Complete by 2015) 

Net Present Value (billion 2008$) 

Trial Standard Level 7% discount rate 3% discount rate 

1 2.66 6.48 

2 2.73 6.64 

3 2.94 7.32 

4 2.32 6.33 

5 2.45 6.58 

6 -12.21 -22.31 

7 3.34 8.78 

8 2.22 6.64 

 Electricity prices have an impact on the national net present value of an energy 

conservation standard. The Department considered four electricity price forecasts. Its reference 

scenario is based on the electricity price forecast in the American Recovery and Reinvestment 

Act case of AEO 2009. However, the Department also considered the possible impacts of 

regulation of greenhouse gas emissions on electricity prices, and developed an electricity price 

scenario based on AEO calculations of the impact of legislation similar to “Lieberman-Warner” 

climate change legislation. Electricity prices rise more quickly under this scenario. Table 10.6.11

and Table 10.6.12 show the NPV of each TSL under this electricity price forecast. The NPV is 

higher using this forecast than in the reference scenario. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-23 

Table 10.6.11 Cumulative Net Present Value for Polyphase Small Electric Motors in a 

Carbon Cap and Trade Electricity Price Scenario (For Equipment Sold 

from 2015 to 2045) 

Trial Standard Net Present Value (billion 2008$) 

Level 7% discount rate 3% discount rate 

1 0.08 0.24 

2 0.25 0.70 

3 0.54 1.44 

4 0.57 1.56 

5 0.34 1.36 

6 0.02 0.79 

7 -6.03 -11.20 

Table 10.6.12 Cumulative Net Present Value for Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors 

in a Carbon Cap and Trade Electricity Price Scenario (For Equipment 

Sold from 2015 to 2045) 

Trial Standard Net Present Value (billion 2008$) 

Level 7% discount rate 3% discount rate 

1 3.52 – 3.56 8.86 – 8.91 

2 3.60 – 3.63 9.05 – 9.09 

3 3.97 – 4.01 10.21 – 10.26 

4 3.41 – 3.44 9.47 – 9.51 

5 3.54 – 3.61 9.76 – 9.87 

6 -10.82 – -10.71 -18.28 – -18.14 

7 3.13 – 7.35 12.34 – 18.20 

8 2.23 – 6.08 10.92 – 16.33 

10.6.6 Capacitor-Start National Impact Summary 

DOE analyzed 8 TSLs for capacitor-start motors in detail, each made up of efficiency 

level requirements for both CSIR and CSCR motors. Table 10.6.14 and Table 10.6.15 show the 

national impacts, along with the life-cycle cost results, for each possible pair of CSIR and CSCR 

efficiency levels (a total of 63 combinations). For each combination, the tables show: (1) the 

National Energy Savings, (2) the average LCC savings for the CSIR and CSCR level, and (3) the 

Net Present Value of a standard at that combination of efficiency levels, at both a 3% and 7% 

discount rate. Table 10.6.13 acts as a key to Table 10.6.14 and Table 10.6.15. These tables are 

provided only for the shipments forecast scenario with a 10-year market share shift, taking place 

from 2015 to 2025. This table may be generated for any user-selected scenario in the national 

impact spreadsheet model. 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-24 

Table 10.6.13 Location and Identification of Data for Each EL Combination in Tables 10.5.12 and 10.5

NPV at 3% 

Discount Rate 

(Billions of 

2008$) 

NPV at 7% 

Discount Rate 

(Billions of 

2008$) 

Average CSCR LCC Savings (2008$) 

Average CSIR LCC Savings (2008$) National Energy Savings (Quads) 

Table 10.6.14 LCC and National Impact Summary for All Combinations of Capacitor-Start Efficiency 

CSCR 

Baseline EL 1 EL 2 EL 3 EL 4 

Baseline 0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.83 0.33 $11.62 2.12 0.83 $22.85 2.77 1.08 $27.99 2.05 0.80 $

$0.00 0.00 $0.00 0.11 $0.00 0.30 $0.00 0.40 $0.00 

EL 1 0.70 0.29 $0.00 1.28 0.52 $11.62 2.34 0.93 $22.85 3.01 1.19 $27.99 2.37 0.94 $

$9.15 0.11 $9.15 0.19 $9.15 0.35 $9.15 0.45 $9.15 

EL 2 1.65 0.69 $0.00 1.99 0.83 $11.62 2.95 1.20 $22.85 3.42 1.39 $27.99 2.98 1.21 $

$24.91 0.26 $24.91 0.30 $24.91 0.44 $24.91 0.51 $24.91 

EL 3 3.21 1.35 $0.00 3.40 1.43 $11.62 4.07 1.70 $22.85 4.40 1.83 $27.99 4.05 1.69 $

$41.32 0.48 $41.32 0.51 $41.32 0.60 $41.32 0.65 $41.32 

EL 4 6.23 2.56 $0.00 6.30 2.60 $11.62 6.52 2.69 $22.85 6.66 2.75 $27.99 6.55 2.70 $

$54.98 1.04 $54.98 1.05 $54.98 1.08 $54.98 1.10 $54.98 

EL 5 6.95 2.78 $0.00 7.00 2.81 $11.62 7.17 2.88 $22.85 7.28 2.93 $27.99 7.18 2.88 $

$54.23 1.25 $54.23 1.25 $54.23 1.27 $54.23 1.29 $54.23 

EL 6 5.46 1.92 $0.00 5.65 2.01 $11.62 6.05 2.18 $22.85 6.28 2.27 $27.99 6.00 2.15 $

$20.65 1.44 $20.65 1.46 $20.65 1.50 $20.65 1.53 $20.65 

3.31 (0.18) $0.00 4.79 0.38 $11.62 6.91 1.16 $22.85 7.75 1.47 $27.99 7.43 1.30 $

CSIR 

EL 7 

$(346.37) 1.27 $(346.37) 1.53 $(346.37) 1.94 $(346.37) 2.10 $(346.37) 

* Levels selected by the Department as Trial Standard Levels are shown with light gray backgrounds and bold text. Negative numbers a

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-25 

Table 10.6.15 LCC and National Impact Summary for All Combinations of Capacitor-Start Efficiency 

CSCR 

EL 5 EL 6 EL 7 EL 8 

Baseline 1.85 0.71 $1.68 0.61 0.21 $(44.11) 0.89 0.32 $(47.10) (1.28) (0.70) $(846.01)

$0.00 0.31 $0.00 0.16 $0.00 0.21 $0.00 (0.06) 

EL 1 2.19 0.86 $1.68 1.10 0.42 $(44.11) 1.35 0.51 $(47.10) (0.54) (0.40) $(846.01)

$9.15 0.37 $9.15 0.24 $9.15 0.28 $9.15 0.06 

EL 2 2.78 1.13 $1.68 1.86 0.76 $(44.11) 2.20 0.88 $(47.10) 0.69 0.11 $(846.01)

$24.91 0.45 $24.91 0.33 $24.91 0.39 $24.91 0.24 

EL 3 3.97 1.65 $1.68 3.39 1.41 $(44.11) 3.50 1.46 $(47.10) 2.46 0.86 $(846.01)

$41.32 0.62 $41.32 0.54 $41.32 0.56 $41.32 0.48 

EL 4 6.51 2.68 $1.68 6.31 2.59 $(44.11) 6.37 2.62 $(47.10) 5.63 2.13 $(846.01)

$54.98 1.09 $54.98 1.08 $54.98 1.08 $54.98 1.06 

EL 5 7.15 2.87 $1.68 6.99 2.79 $(44.11) 7.04 2.81 $(47.10) 6.35 2.35 $(846.01)

$54.23 1.28 $54.23 1.27 $54.23 1.28 $54.23 1.27 

EL 6 5.87 2.09 $1.68 5.30 1.84 $(44.11) 5.37 1.86 $(47.10) 4.53 1.34 $(846.01)

$20.65 1.52 $20.65 1.49 $20.65 1.50 $20.65 1.47 

7.17 1.16 $1.68 5.09 0.18 $(44.11) 5.51 0.29 $(47.10) (22.62) (12.40) $(846.01)

CSIR 

EL 7 

$(346.37) 2.26 $(346.37) 2.37 $(346.37) 2.51 $(346.37) 1.92 

* Levels selected by the Department as Trial Standard Levels are shown with light gray backgrounds and bold text. Negative numbers a

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
10-26 

10.6.7 Annualized National Impacts 

DOE calculated an annualized summary of national impacts for each trial standard level. 

These annualized values were calculated by determining the annual values of future equipment 

cost increases and operating cost savings distributed evenly among the years 2015 to 2045 (31 

years total) which would have the same NPVs as the increases in costs and decrease in operating 

expenses caused by the trial standard levels. 

Table 10.6.16 shows the annualized costs, benefits, and net benefit for each of the 7 

polyphase trial standard levels. Table 10.6.17 shows the annualized national impacts for 

capacitor-start motors. These values are shown as a range between the lowest and highest value 

for each amount across three shipments scenarios: the Department’s reference case with a CSIRCSCR market share shift over the period 2015-2025, the same case with a market share shift 

complete by 2015, and the Department’s “segmented market” case (which treats spaceconstrained and non-space-constrained customers separately), with shift complete by 2015. 

Table 10.6.16 Annualized Costs and Benefits for Polyphase Small Electric Motors 

Ann. Equip. Cost Increase 

(million $2008) 

Ann. Op. Cost Savings 

(million $2008) 

Annualized Net Benefit 

Trial (million $2008) 

Standard 

Level 

7% disc. 

rate 

3% disc. 

rate 

7% disc. 

rate 

3% disc. 

rate 

7% disc. 

rate 

3% disc. 

rate 

1 10.2 10.2 16.0 19.0 5.8 8.9 

2 16.3 16.2 37.4 44.6 21.2 28.4 

3 26.6 26.6 73.0 87.0 46.3 60.4 

4 34.5 34.4 82.6 98.5 48.1 64.1 

5 129.1 128.7 136.2 162.3 7.2 33.6 

6 183.9 183.4 149.5 178.1 -34.4 -5.3 

7 936.5 933.8 171.9 204.8 -764.6 -729.0 

Table 10.6.17 Annualized Costs and Benefits for Capacitor-Start Small Electric Motors 

Ann. Equip. Cost Increase 

(million $2008) 

Ann. Op. Cost Savings 

(million $2008) 

Annualized Net Benefit 

Trial (million $2008) 

Standard 

Level 

7% disc. 

rate 

3% disc. 

rate 

7% disc. 

rate 

3% disc. 

rate 

7% disc. rate 3% disc. rate 

1 117 – 118 117 – 118 436 – 440 504 – 507 318 – 322 387 – 389 

2 118 118 444 – 447 513 – 515 326 – 329 395 – 398 

3 194 – 197 194 – 196 543 – 546 628 – 631 347 – 352 432 – 437 

4 357 – 377 356 – 375 634 – 635 733 – 734 257 – 278 358 – 378 

5 345 – 364 344 – 361 637 – 638 736 – 737 272 – 293 375 – 393 

6 2254 – 2281 2248 – 2269 791 – 797 914 – 918 -1485 – -1462 -1332 – -1350 

7 164 – 657 164 – 503 787 – 843 909 – 975 175 – 679 462 – 811 

8 513 – 923 511 – 794 826 – 1003 954 – 1159 34 – 490 329 – 647 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19
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REFERENCES 

1. U.S. Department of Energy. Opportunities for Energy Savings in the Residential and 

Commercial Sectors with High-Efficiency Electric Motor, December, 1999. Washngton, 

DC. 

2. U.S. Department of Energy-Energy Information Administration. An Updated Annual 

Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery 

and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook, April, 2009. 

Washington, DC. SR/OIAF/2009-03. 

<http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/pdf/sroiaf(2009)03.pdf> 

EERE-2007-BT-STD-0007 COMMENT 19