10

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- i APPENDIX 10

- A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA SPREADSHEET MODEL

TABLE OF CO NTENTS

10- A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS

..................................................................................... 10-A-1 10-A.1.1 Worksheet Descriptions ....................................................................................... 10-A-1 10-A.1.1.1 Introduction .................................................................................. 10-A-1 10-A.1.1.2 National Impact Summary

........................................................... 10-A-1 10-A.1.1.3 Summary Results

......................................................................... 10-A-1 10-A.1.1.4 Model Flowchart

.......................................................................... 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.5 Candidate Standard Level Definitions and Design- Lines

- to

Product- Classes Mapping

............................................................ 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.6 Ship- NES

- NPV Output

................................................................ 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.7 Energy Impacts from Candidate Standard Levels— Charts

......... 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.8 Annual Impacts

............................................................................ 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.9 Shipments Forecast across Candidate Standard Levels ............... 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.10 Shipments Chart ........................................................................... 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.11 Shipments Data

............................................................................ 10-A-2 10-A.1.1.12 Stock Sheets

................................................................................. 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.13 Lifetime

........................................................................................ 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.14 Life

- Cycle Cost Data by Equipment Class

.................................. 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.15 Life -Cycle Cost Input Data .......................................................... 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.16 Market Share Data

....................................................................... 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.17 Site2Source .................................................................................. 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.18 Energy Information Administration Electricity Sales Data

......... 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.19 Annual Energy Price Forecast

..................................................... 10-A-3 10-A.1.1.20 Rescaled Life -Cycle Cost Inputs ................................................. 10-A-4 10-A.1.2 National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet Operating Instructions

........................... 10-A-410

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- 1 APPENDIX 10

- A. USER INSTRUCTIONS FOR SHIPMENTS AND NIA
SPREADSHEET MODEL

10

- A.1 USER INSTRUCTIONS
The results obtained in the shipments analysis and the national impact analysis (NIA) can be examined and reproduced using the Microsoft Excel spreadsheet available on the U.S. Department of Energ y (DOE)’s website at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/66

. The spreadsheet is called “NIA_DT_NOPR.xls ,” and it enables the user to perform a NIA of distribution transformer standards for both the liquid- im mersed and dry- type equipment classes. This spreadsheet also enables the user to analyze the policy options considered in the regulatory impact analysis. To run the spreadsheet, the user needs to have Microsoft Excel 2000 or a later version.

10-A.1.1 Worksheet Descriptions
The NIA spreadsheet performs calculations to forecast the changes in national energy savings (NES) and net present value (NPV) due to an energy efficiency standard. The energy use and associated costs for a given standard are determined first by calculating the shipments and then calculating the energy use and costs for a product class. The differences between the standards and base cases (absent a national standard) can then be compared and the NES and NPV determined. The NIA spreadsheet, or workbook, consists of the following 20 worksheets that are described below.

10-A.1.1.1 Introduction
This worksheet provides an outline of the contents of the entire national impact spreadsheet and describes the calculations contained in individual worksheets.

10-A.1.1.2 National Impact Summary
This worksheet contains user input selections and a summary table containing cumulative shipments, cumulative energy savings, and NPV for each candidate standard level ( C SL ) . The worksheet also graphically summarizes the energy an d economic savings resulting from standards.

10-A.1.1.3 Summary Results
This worksheet provides a summary of the shipments forecast, national source energy savings, and the NPV of the savings for candidate standard levels (CSLs) for both the liquidimmersed and dry- type distribution transformers.10

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- 2 10-A.1.1.4 Model Flowchart
This worksheet presents a flowchart of the shipments and the NES and NPV modules.

10-A.1.1.5 C andidate S tandard L evel Definitions and D esign -L ines

- to -P roduct

C lasses Mapping
This worksheet defines efficiency levels f or the CSLs by design lines and provides design

- lines

- to -product- classes mapping.

10-A.1.1.6 Ship

- NES

- NPV Output
This worksheet presents the consolidated outputs produced for each product class when the user clicks the button “All Classes Summary” on the “National I mpact Summary” worksheet. Total savings and NPV for the forecast period are summarized in tables for each standard level.

10-A.1.1.7 Energy Impacts from Candidate Standard Level s— Charts
This worksheet displays the savings charts for years 2015 through 20 44 for all the C SLs when the user runs a specific scenario or a product class in the “National Impact Summary” sheet.

10-A.1.1.8 Annual Impacts

This worksheet makes several calculations for the ba se case as well as for all the C SLs. Savings are calculated as the difference between the base case and the CSL energy consumption.

10-A.1.1.9 Shipments Fore cast across Candidate Standard Level s This worksheet compiles the shipments forecast from the stock sheets (see below) for the years 2010 through 2038 for all the CSL s. The output of this worksheet corresponds to the product class for which the model is run.

10-A.1.1.10 Shipments Chart
This sheet contains the shipments model chart illustrating the forecast and backcast from the shipments model.

10-A.1.1.11 Shipments Data
This worksheet calculates total historical shipments fo r the years 1977 through 2009 and fo recasts shipments for the years 2010 through 2044. These shipments are calculated for both liquid -immersed and dry- type transformers.10

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- 3 10-A.1.1.12 Stock Sheets

There are two stock sheets

— one for the base case an d another for the standards case. Each stock sheet calculates the shipments, retirements, and affected stock in a particular year for liquid -immersed and dry- type transformers.

10-A.1.1.13 Lifetime
This worksheet contains the transformer reliability function and pr oduces the retirement rates. The probabilities of retirement generated in this worksheet are used to calculate the annual retirements in the stock sheets.

10-A.1.1.14 Life

- Cycle C ost Data by Equipment Class
This worksheet contains energy loss (or consumption) and first- cost data for different equipment classes. As the name suggests, the data for this worksheet come directly from the life -cycle cost (LCC) analysis. The load growth calculations for liquid- imm ersed and dry- type transformers are also carried out in this worksheet.

10-A.1.1.15 Life

- Cycle C ost Input Data

Data in this worksheet are the mean values for the different variables from the Monte Carlo simulation runs of the LCC for individual design lines.

10-A.1.1.16 Market Share Data
This worksheet contains the market shares of the different transformer design lines. The worksheet also calculates the 0.75 scaling factors for each design line.

10-A.1.1.17 Site2Source
This worksheet contains the conversion factors for calculating source energy from site
energy.

10-A.1.1.18 Energy Info rmation Administration Electricity Sales Data
This worksheet contains the historical and forecasted retail electricity sales data (obtained from DOE's Energy Info rmation Administration (EIA)).

10-A.1.1.19 Annual Energy Price Forecast
This worksheet contains the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2010 forecast data for the electric power sector for the different economic growth scenarios (i.e., reference, high, and low). This forecast is used to estimate future growth in shipment s.10

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- 4 10-A.1.1.20 Rescaled L ife -C ycle C ost Inputs
This worksheet applies the 0.75 scaling factors to convert the LCC input data for representative units into LCC input values representing all sizes within a design line.

10-A.1.2 National Impact Analysis Spreadsheet Operating Instructions
Basic instructions for operating the NIA spreadsheet are as follows:

1. After downloading the NIA spreadsheet file from DOE's website, open the file using Excel. At the bottom, click on the tab for the worksheet “National Impact Summary.” Thi s worksheet serves as the user interface for running the model for a particular product class. To provide flexibility, the spreadsheet permits some user modifications to the model. The user may select a particular macroeconomic forecast which determines fuel prices, electricity sales, and income data to be used by the model. The user may also directly input new values for implicit discount rates, which quantify consumer preference for immediate, instead of delayed, savings. Additionally, the user can se lect long

- term purchase elasticities for transformers.

2. Use Excel’s View/Zoom commands at the top menu bar to change the size of the display to make it fit your monitor.

3. The user can change the model parameters listed in the gray box labeled “Inputs.” The parameters are:

a) Economic Growth: To change the value, use the drop-down menu. Select the desired growth level (Reference, Low, or High).

b) Discount Rate: To change the value, use the drop-down menu. S elect the desired discount rate.

c) Elasticity Liqu id

- Immersed Type: To change the value, use the drop -down menu to pick a level (Medium, High, Low).

d) Elasticity Dry -Type: To change the value, use the drop-down menu to pick a level (Medium, High, Low).

4. The user can now select the desired equipment class from the drop-down menu and view the results in the summary table for that equipment class. To produce results for all equipment classes, the user will need to click the “All Classes Summary” button. When the user gets a message saying “Done,” the calcu lations are complete. Results from this run will be available in the “Ship- NES -NPV Outputs” worksheet.