April 2007

With federal legislation now requiring schools to report 

graduation rates, high school dropouts are receiving renewed 

attention from educators, policymakers, and researchers. 

Recent research has indicated a relationship between the 

number of course credits that students accrue each school 

year and students’ high school status (Allensworth and 

Easton 2005). This Issue Brief contributes to the research by 

using a nationally representative sample of 10th-graders in 

public and private schools in the spring 2002 to examine the 

timing of dropping out and its relationship to the number 

of credits earned1 by high school students. In this study, 

differences in the average number of course credits earned 

between high school graduates and dropouts, both within 

and accumulated across academic years, are examined in 

order to describe enrollment and completion behavior of 

high school graduates and dropouts. Differences in course 

credit accrual by selected subjects (English, mathematics, and 

science) are also reported.

Comparisons in course credit accrual and cumulative course 

credits earned between students who dropped out at any point 

from spring 2002 to August 2004 and those who graduated 

on time (within 4 years of starting high school) are the 

primary focus of this analysis.2 Data for this study are drawn 

from high school transcripts collected in 2005 as part of the 

first follow up to the National Center for Education Statistics 

(NCES) Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002). 

These high school transcripts provide enrollment his-tories, 

graduation dates, and coursetaking patterns. 

Tenth-graders in spring 2002 who had not completed their 

high school education by August 2004 and were no longer 

enrolled in school are referred to as dropouts (see Planty, 

Bozick, and Ingels 2006). Dropouts are divided into three 

categories based on the highest academic year in which 

course credits were observed: 10th-grade dropouts (who did 

not earn any additional course credits in high school beyond 

the 2001–02 academic year), 11th-grade dropouts (who did 

not earn any credits beyond the 2002–03 academic year), and 

12th-grade dropouts (who did not earn any credits beyond 

the 2003–04 academic year).3 Tenth-graders in spring 2002 

who completed high school by August 2004 are defined as 

on-time graduates. 

Course Credits Earned by High School Status

As shown in table 1, some 82 percent of students who were 

10th-graders in the spring of 2002 graduated from high school 

Course Credit Accrual and Dropping 

Out of High School 

U.S. Department of Education

NCES 2007–018

Issue

Brief

on time. In contrast, 5 percent left school without earning a 

high school diploma or alternative credential. Two percent 

were still enrolled without a formal award as of August 2004 

(nongraduates), and the remaining 12 percent graduated early 

(before the 2003–04 academic year) or received an alternative 

diploma, such as a General Educational Development (GED) 

certificate or certificate of attendance.4,5

Overall spring 2002 10th-graders earned, on average, 

6.4 course credits in both the 2000–01 and 2001–02 academic years (9th and 10th grades, respectively, for on-time 

students). The average number of course credits earned by 

these students decreased over the subsequent 2 academic 

years due, in part, to 11th- and 12th-grade dropouts earning 

fewer credits.6,7 

On-time graduates earned more course credits than did high 

school dropouts within each academic year. For example, ontime graduates earned, on average, 6.6 credits in the 2000–

01 academic year, while dropouts earned, on average, 5.1 

credits; 12th-grade dropouts earned 5.4 credits, 11th-grade 

dropouts earned 4.4 credits, and 10th-grade dropouts earned 

3.9 credits. The same pattern—on-time graduates earning 

more credits than dropouts earned—was observed in the 

2001–02, 2002–03, and 2003–04 academic years. 

Within-year differences in course credits earned were also 

observed among dropouts. For example, in the 2000–01 and 

2001–02 academic years, 12th-grade dropouts earned more 

credits than did 11th- and 10th-grade dropouts. Additionally, 

in the 2002–03 academic year (11th grade for on-time 

students), 12th-grade dropouts earned more credits than did 

11th-grade dropouts (3.5 vs. 1.2 credits).

High school dropouts also earned fewer course credits in 

selected subjects than on-time graduates. Table 2 reports the 

average number of credits earned in English, mathematics, 

and science by academic year and high school status. For each 

academic year, high school dropouts earned fewer course 

credits than did on-time graduates in English, mathematics, 

and science. For example, in the 2000–01 academic year, 

on-time graduates earned more credits than dropouts in 

English (1.07 vs. 0.90 credits), mathematics (1.00 vs. 0.71 

credits), and science (0.89 vs. 0.63 credits). During the 2001–

02 academic year, the course credit gap between on-time 

graduates and dropouts was 0.31 credits in English, 0.35 

credits in mathematics, and 0.36 credits in science.
2 NCES 2007-018 Issue Brief April 2007

Course Credit Accrual Gaps and Timing of 

Dropping Out

As shown in figure 1, the disparity in the cumulative number of 

course credits accrued by on-time graduates and dropouts grew 

more pronounced over time. The gap in credits accumulated 

between on-time graduates and 12th-grade dropouts in the 

2000–01 academic year, 1.2 credits, increased to 2.9 credits by 

the end of the 2001–02 academic year and 5.9 credits accrued 

by 2002–03. By the 2003–04 academic year, the last year of 

observed enrollment for 12th-grade dropouts, the cumulative 

credit gap between on-time graduates and 12th-grade dropouts 

was 10.6 credits. 

Between the 2001–02 and 2002–03 academic years, a similar 

increase was observed in the cumulative credit gap between 

11th- and 12th-grade dropouts. The gap increased from 1.9 

credits in the 2001–02 academic year to 4.2 credits by the 

end of the 2002–03 academic year, the last year of observed 

enrollment for 11th-grade dropouts. 

Summary

The findings from the analysis indicate that high school dropouts 

earn fewer credits than do on-time graduates within each 

academic year, and the gap in course credits accrued between 

dropouts and on-time graduates increased across academic 

years. Differences were also observed in the course credit 

accrual of dropouts and on-time graduates by selected subjects 

(e.g., mathematics, science, and English). Lastly, the gap in the 

cumulative number of course credits ac-crued between on-time 

graduates and dropouts grew more pronounced over time, and 

the disparity in cumulative course credits was most evident in the 

final academic year in which they earned any course credits.

The current analysis is limited in a number of ways. First, students 

who left high school prior to spring 2002 or were retained in the 

9th grade were not part of the sample to be analyzed. Also, the 

high school transcripts collected in 2004 as part of the ELS:2002 

first follow up do not include data on the reasons why dropouts 

fall behind on-time completers in credit accrual. 

Table 1. Average course credits earned by spring 2002 10th-graders by academic year and high school status: 2004

Course credits earned

Academic year

High school status Percentage distribtion Total, all academic years 2000–01 2001–02 2002–03 2003–04

Total1 100.0 24.4 6.4 6.4 6.1 5.4

On-time graduates 81.6 25.8 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.0

Dropouts 4.6 13.3 5.1 4.6 2.7 0.9

12th grade 3.2 15.2 5.4 5.0 3.5 1.3

11th grade 1.0 9.7 4.4 4.1 1.2 †

10th grade 0.4 7.2 3.9 3.3 † †

Nongraduates2 1.7 20.7 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.6

† Not applicable.

1

 Students who graduated early (before the 2003–04 academic year) or received an alternative credential, such as a General Educational Development (GED) certificate or 

certificate of attendance are included in the total but not reported separately.

2

 Nongraduates are students who had not graduated and were still enrolled as of August 2004.

NOTE: The basic unit of coursework measurement is the course credit. Course credits refer to standardized Carnegie units. By definition, 11th-grade dropouts in the 2003–04 

academic year and 10th-grade dropouts in the 2002–03 and 2003–04 academic years earned zero course credits, and these values are included in the estimations of average 

course credit earned for all dropouts. Standard errors can be found at http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2007018. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), “High School Transcript Study, 2004.”

Table 2. Average course credits earned by spring 2002 10th-graders, by subject, academic year, and high school status, 2004

Credits earned, by academic year

English Mathematics Science

High school 2000–01 2001–02 2002–03 2003–04 2000–01 2001–02 2002–03 2003–04 2000–01 2001–02 2002–03 2003–04

Total1 1.05 1.03 1.02 0.96 0.97 0.93 0.84 0.55 0.86 0.91 0.78 0.51

On-time graduates 1.07 1.06 1.08 1.07 1.00 0.98 0.90 0.61 0.89 0.95 0.85 0.56

Dropouts 0.90 0.75 0.47 0.16 0.71 0.63 0.33 0.08 0.63 0.59 0.28 0.08

12th grade 0.96 0.82 0.62 0.23 0.79 0.67 0.43 0.12 0.67 0.67 0.37 0.12

11th grade 0.80 0.60 0.18 † 0.59 0.57 0.13 † 0.56 0.42 0.10 †

10th grade 0.67 0.62 † † 0.43 0.48 † † 0.43 0.33 † †

Nongraduates2 1.05 0.91 0.90 0.80 0.79 0.67 0.66 0.44 0.72 0.71 0.55 0.42

† Not applicable.

1

 Students who graduated early (before the 2003–04 academic year) or received an alternative credential, such as a General Educational Development (GED) certificate or 

certificate of attendance are included in the total but not reported separately.

2

 Nongraduates are students who had not graduated and were still enrolled as of August 2004.

NOTE: The basic unit of coursework measurement is the course credit. Course credits refer to standardized Carnegie units. By definition, 11th-grade dropouts in the 2003–04 

academic year and 10th-grade dropouts in the 2002–03 and 2003–04 academic years earned zero course credits, and these values are included in the estimations of average 

course credit earned for all dropouts. Standard errors can be found at http://nces.ed.gov/pubsearch/pubsinfo.asp?pubid=2007018. 

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), “High School Transcript Study, 2004.”
NCES 2007-018 Issue Brief April 2007 3

3

 The grade of dropout is determined solely by the academic 

year in which the student dropped out and not by the student’s 

actual grade level. Thus, a student who repeated 10th grade and 

accumulated 10th-grade course credits while the cohort was in 

11th grade but did not accrue any credits in the cohort’s 12thgrade year would be classified an 11th-grade dropout.

4 The 12 percent of students who either graduated before the 

2003–04 academic year or received an alternative diploma are 

not discussed in this report.

5 These estimates may differ from other measures of student 

progress and persistence. General differences can be found in the 

population being studied, definition of outcomes, information 

source, and data collection timeframe. For example, the averaged 

freshman graduation rate (AFGR) estimates the size of an 

incoming freshman class by summing the enrollment in 8th grade 

for 1 year, 9th grade for the next year, and 10th grade for the 

year after and then dividing by 3. This averaging is intended to 

account for higher grade retentions in the 9th grade. It should be 

noted, that the AFGR applies to public school students only while 

this brief includes students in private school as well. The AFGR 

nationwide was 73.9 percent in the 2003–04 school year, the 

last year for which complete data are available (see http://nces.

ed.gov/pubs2006/dropout/06.asp). The population being studied 

for the analysis in this brief is the sophomore class (10th grade) 

of 2002 in 2004. Given such differences, one would not expect to 

see identical or even similar estimates between different measures 

of student persistence and progress.

6 The decline in credits earned over time by dropouts may also be 

due in part to a decrease in the number of credits attempted or an 

increase in the number of courses failed. However, a limitation of 

the ELS:2002 transcript data is that failed or attempted courses 

are not reported in a consistent manner by all schools.

7 Students who dropped out were retained in the calculation of 

average course credits earned during the academic year.

References

Allensworth, E.M., and Easton, J.Q. (2005). The On-Track 

Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation. Chicago: 

Consortium on Chicago School Research. Retrieved September 

8, 2006, from http://ccsr.uchicago.edu/content/publications.

php?pub_id=10. 

Planty, M., Bozick, R., and Ingels, S.J. (2006). Academic Pathways, 

Preparation, and Performance—A Descriptive Overview of 

the Transcripts From the High School Graduating Class of 

2003–04 (NCES 2007-316). U.S. Department of Education. 

Washington, DC: National Center for Education Statistics.

Endnotes

1

 The basic unit of coursework measurement is the course credit. 

Course credits refer to standardized Carnegie units. 

2

 Since the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002) 

cohort was sampled in the spring of 2002, students who dropped 

out in the 9th grade and at the beginning of the 10th grade were 

not captured by this analysis. Also, the graduation period for 

spring 2002 10th-graders in ELS:2002 extended from fall 2003 

through summer 2004.

The Issue Brief series presents information on education topics of current interest. All estimates shown are based on samples and are subject 

to sampling variability. All differences discussed are statistically significant at the .05 level as measured by two-tailed student’s t tests; this 

means a difference is discussed only if the probability that it is due to chance (i.e., sampling variability) is less than 1 in 20. No adjustments 

were made for multiple comparisons. In the design, conduct, and data processing of National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) surveys, 

efforts are made to minimize the effects of nonsampling errors, such as item nonresponse, measurement error, data processing error, or other 

systematic error. For more information on the Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), visit http://nces.ed.gov/surveys/els2002. 

This Issue Brief was prepared by the following staff at the Education Statistics Services Institute (ESSI)—which is funded by NCES and composed 

of staff from the American Institutes for Research (AIR) and a number of partner organizations—Gillian Hampden-Thompson (AIR), Gregory 

Kienzl (AIR), Bruce Daniel (KForce) and Akemi Kinukawa (Child Trends). This Issue Brief was desktopped by Michael Stock of MacroSys Research 

and Technology of ESSI. For further information, contact Edith McArthur, NCES, at 202-502-7393 or edith.mcarthur@ed.gov. To order additional 

copies of this Issue Brief or other NCES publications, call 1-877-4ED-PUBS or visit http://www.edpubs.org. NCES publications are also available 

on the Internet at http://nces.ed.gov.

2000−01 2001−02 2002−03 2003−04

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Course credits

Academic year

On-time graduates

12th-grade dropouts

11th-grade dropouts

10th-grade dropouts

Figure 1. Average cumulative course credit accrual by spring 2002 

10th-graders, by academic year and high school status: 2004
Course Credit Accrual and Dropping

Out of High School 

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NCES 2007–018

The Issue Brief series presents information on education topics of current interest.

Issue

Brief
NCES 2007-018 Issue Brief April 2007

Table A1. Standard errors for Table 1: Average course credits earned by spring 2002 10th-graders, by academic year and high school 

status: 2004

Course credits earned

Academic year

High school status

Percentage 

distribution

Total, all 

academic years 2000–01 2001–02 2002–03 2003–04

Total † 0.12 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04

On-time graduates 0.80 0.10 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.04

Dropouts 0.26 0.36 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.09

12th grade 0.20 0.32 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.11

11th grade 0.12 0.77 0.36 0.34 0.21 †

10th grade 0.06 0.56 0.31 0.37 † †

Nongraduates 0.15 0.48 0.18 0.18 0.22 0.26

† Not applicable.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), “High School Transcript Study, 2004.” 

Table A2. Standard errors for Table 2: Average course credits earned by spring 2002 10th-graders, by subject, academic year, and 

high school status: 2004

Credits earned, by academic year

English Mathematics Science

High school 

status

2000–

01

2001–

02

2002–

03

2003–

04

2000–

01

2001–

02

2002–

03

2003–

04

2000–

01

2001–

02

2002–

03

2003–

04

Total 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.009 0.010 0.007 0.007 0.009 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.010

On-time graduates 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.010 0.011 0.007 0.007 0.010 0.009 0.008 0.008 0.014

Dropouts 0.031 0.030 0.028 0.020 0.031 0.028 0.025 0.012 0.029 0.029 0.024 0.014

12th grade 0.041 0.035 0.033 0.027 0.034 0.035 0.030 0.016 0.033 0.035 0.033 0.020

11th grade 0.072 0.070 0.039 † 0.056 0.051 0.032 † 0.060 0.057 0.031 †

10th grade 0.086 0.092 † † 0.093 0.081 † † 0.076 0.071 † †

Nongraduates 0.046 0.044 0.049 0.055 0.050 0.047 0.050 0.050 0.041 0.045 0.047 0.052

† Not applicable.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Education Longitudinal Study of 2002 (ELS:2002), “High School Transcript Study, 2004.”