1 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

The Parker Ranch installation in Hawaii

BUILDING TECHNOLOGIES PROGRAM

Distribution Transformers

Energy Conservation Program

Christopher Bolduc on behalf of

U.S. Department of Energy

Energy Efficiency & Renewable Energy

November 3, 2011
2 | Building Technologies Program eere.energy.gov

Draft Life-Cycle Cost, Payback Period Sensitivity Results, ZHMD Steel 

Exclusion, for Medium Voltage Liquid-Immersed Transformers

Prepared for the Medium Voltage Distribution Transformers Negotiated 

Rulemaking Working Group

November 3, 2011

Contents

• Life-Cycle Cost Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• Payback Period Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• Materials Selection Results for Design Lines 1 – 5

• National Impacts Results for Equipment Classes 1 and 2

Contents
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Design Line 1 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Efficiency (%) 99.16% 99.22% 99.25% 99.31% 99.42% 99.50%

Transformers with Net Increase in LCC (%) 43.40% 0.00% 0.00% 1.00% 3.10% 26.40%

Transformers with No Impact on LCC (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Savings (%) 56.60% 100.00% 100.00% 99.00% 96.90% 73.60%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 196 1140 1140 1039 1285 734

Median LCC Savings ($) 43 1140 1140 1038 1199 541

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 1 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 2 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Efficiency (%) 99.00% 99.07% 99.11% 99.18% 99.31% 99.41% 99.46%

Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 7.63% 17.15% 23.99% 25.79% 35.02% 55.77% 69.39%

Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 92.37% 82.85% 76.01% 74.21% 64.98% 44.23% 30.61%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 506 256 83 48 -103 -364 -578

Median LCC Savings ($) 568 552 489 454 218 -87 -331

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 2 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 3 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Efficiency (%) 99.48% 99.51% 99.54% 99.57% 99.61% 99.69% 99.73%

Transformers with Net Increase in LCC (%) 7.49% 4.00% 1.09% 0.97% 1.42% 3.29% 10.97%

Transformers with No Impact on LCC (%) 1.38% 1.13% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Savings (%) 91.13% 94.87% 98.89% 99.01% 98.58% 96.71% 89.03%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 6013 6919 8090 8636 9870 10613 8031

Median LCC Savings ($) 6480 7334 8404 8903 10095 10228 7012

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 3 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 4 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Efficiency (%) 99.16% 99.22% 99.25% 99.31% 99.42% 99.50% 99.60%

Transformers with Net LCC Cost (%) 4.07% 0.04% 0.04% 0.04% 0.13% 0.99% 11.74%

Transformers with No Change in LCC (%) 0.95% 0.95% 0.95% 0.95% 0.23% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Benefit (%) 94.98% 99.01% 99.01% 99.01% 99.64% 99.01% 82.99%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 1214 5171.2 5171.2 5178.6 5210.2 4824 2869

Median LCC Savings ($) 615 5243.4 5243.4 5252.2 5279.0 4711 2586

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 4 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 5 LCC Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Efficiency (%) 99.48% 99.51% 99.54% 99.57% 99.61% 99.69%

Transformers with Net Increase in LCC (%) 4.85% 2.47% 2.82% 3.20% 4.90% 26.79%

Transformers with No Impact on LCC (%) 0.14% 0.09% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Transformers with Net LCC Savings (%) 95.01% 97.44% 97.18% 96.80% 95.10% 73.21%

Mean LCC Savings ($) 17141 18773 19266 19841 18784 8613

Median LCC Savings ($) 17757 19279 19736 20284 19406 8141

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average LCC Savings ($)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 5 Average LCC Savings

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%

median

average
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Design Line 1 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Mean Payback (Years) 32.5 7.5 7.5 9.9 11.8 20.5

Median Payback (Years) 21.2 7.2 7.2 9.5 11.4 19.3

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 89.40% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 10.60% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Mean Retial Price ($) 2,375 2,480 2,480 2,580 2,844 3,392

Mean Installation Costs ($) 2,226 2,262 2,262 2,336 2,411 2,604

Mean Operating Costs ($) 198 151 151 149 127 122

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 344 485 485 659 998 1,739

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 20 67 67 70 91 97

Payback of Average Transformer 17.0 7.2 7.2 9.5 11.0 18.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 1 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%
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Design Line 2 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mean Payback (Years) 9.2 17.3 22.6 24.5 29.4 34.7 38.4

Median Payback (Years) 5.3 7.3 9.7 12.3 19.5 26.1 30.8

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 98.91% 99.75% 99.35% 99.56% 99.35% 99.48% 99.63%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 1.09% 0.25% 0.65% 0.44% 0.65% 0.52% 0.37%

Mean Retial Price ($) 1,458 1,498 1,558 1,629 1,873 2,092 2,611

Mean Installation Costs ($) 1,758 2,101 2,272 2,355 2,518 2,678 2,473

Mean Operating Costs ($) 97 92 90 85 76 72 68

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 210 594 824 978 1,384 1,764 2,078

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 31 36 38 42 51 56 59

Payback of Average Transformer 6.9 16.6 21.9 23.3 27.0 31.7 35.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 2 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%
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Design Line 3 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mean Payback (Years) 4.1 4.1 4.9 5.0 6.0 10.2 16.9

Median Payback (Years) 2.3 2.5 3.7 3.9 4.8 8.4 14.4

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 94.64% 97.65% 99.98% 99.98% 100.00% 99.92% 99.67%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 5.36% 2.35% 0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.08% 0.33%

Mean Retial Price ($) 8,976 9,119 9,678 9,820 10,447 12,731 16,254

Mean Installation Costs ($) 4,250 4,247 4,367 4,389 4,515 4,984 5,677

Mean Operating Costs ($) 988 949 880 854 782 657 602

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 772 913 1,592 1,756 2,509 5,261 9,478

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 303 342 410 437 509 634 688

Payback of Average Transformer 2.5 2.7 3.9 4.0 4.9 8.3 13.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 3 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%
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Design Line 4 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Mean Payback (Years) 12.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 4.2 8.9 17.4

Median Payback (Years) 13.0 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.8 8.3 16.5

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 98.99% 98.99% 98.99% 99.01% 99.75% 99.89% 94.71%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 1.01% 1.01% 1.01% 0.99% 0.25% 0.11% 0.02%

Mean Retial Price ($) 6,411 6,545 6,545 6,553 6,646 7,735 10,729

Mean Installation Costs ($) 4,159 4,177 4,177 4,176 4,223 4,580 4,707

Mean Operating Costs ($) 545 375 375 374 367 323 278

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 703 855 855 862 1,002 2,447 5,569

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 79 249 249 250 257 301 349

Payback of Average Transformer 8.9 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.9 8.1 16.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

Average Payback Period (years)

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Efficiency Level

Design Line 4 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%
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Design Line 5 PBP Results

Efficiency Level

1 2 3 4 5 6

Mean Payback (Years) 5.4 4.9 7.2 8.0 11.2 22.9

Median Payback (Years) 3.3 3.5 5.4 6.2 8.8 19.9

Transformers having Well Defined Payback (%) 97.49% 99.04% 99.91% 99.78% 99.62% 100.00%

Transformers having Undefined Payback (%) 2.51% 0.96% 0.09% 0.22% 0.38% 0.00%

Mean Retial Price ($) 29,033 29,381 31,309 32,458 36,031 57,305

Mean Installation Costs ($) 8,582 8,603 8,857 9,015 9,492 9,828

Mean Operating Costs ($) 2,542 2,463 2,357 2,282 2,163 1,709

Mean Incremental First Cost ($) 2,576 2,945 5,126 6,433 10,483 32,093

Mean Operating Cost Savings ($) 787 866 972 1,047 1,165 1,620

Payback of Average Transformer 3.3 3.4 5.3 6.1 9.0 19.8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

CSL 1 CSL 2 CSL 3 CSL 4 CSL 5 CSL 6 CSL 7

Average Payback Period (years)

Efficiency Level

Design Line 5 Average Payback Period

Average; Median; Box 25%-75%; Whisker 5%-95%
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Core Materials Selection

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6

M12

M6

M5 0.0%

M4

M3 100.0% 89.6% 0.0% 0.0%

M2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

H0

ZDMH

SA1 10.4%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%100.0%

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

M12

M6

M5 0.0%

M4 0.0%

M3 0.0% 0.0%

M2 91.5% 0.0%

H0

ZDMH

SA1 8.5% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Design Line 1 Design Line 2

•These results represent the fraction of each core material sampled 

in the LCC simulation.

•NULL (blank) values indicate the were no designs available for a 

given core material and efficiency level
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Core Materials Selection (cont)

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

M12

M6

M5 0.0%

M4 0.0% 0.0%

M3 88.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

M2 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

H0

ZDMH

SA1 11.8% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Design Line 3

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

M12

M6

M5 0.0%

M4

M3 91.7% 0.0% 0.0%

M2 7.3% 83.8% 0.0% 0.0%

H0

ZDMH

SA1 1.0% 16.2% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

Design Line 4
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Core Material Selection (cont)

Design Line 5

Materials Efficiency Level

Basecase 1 2 3 4 5 6

M12

M6

M5

M4 0.0% 0.0%

M3 24.8% 0.0% 0.0%

M2 64.7% 0.0% 0.0%

H0

ZDMH

SA1 10.6% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
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National Impacts Summary Results for 

MV Liquid-immersed, by Efficiency Level

Summary Results by Efficiency Level for Liquid-immersed Transformers

Efficiency Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Transformer Shipments 2015-2044 (Billion KVA) 1.95 1.95 1.94 1.94 1.94 1.93 1.92 1.91

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 64.93 -5.86 -11.67 -13.67 -14.98 -22.97 -36.90 -43.09

Operating Cost (Savings in TSLs) ($Billions) 76.70 11.11 18.03 20.75 24.04 30.07 36.50 38.58

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.76 1.21 1.38 1.59 1.96 2.36 2.49

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 5.26 6.368 7.08 9.06 7.09 -0.40 -4.50

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.66 -0.12 -0.346 -0.05 -2.399 -7.65 -10.20
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Summary Results by EL for Equipment Class 1

National Impacts Results for MV 

Liquid-immersed, by Efficiency Level

Summary Results by EL for Equipment Class 2

Efficiency Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Transformer Shipments 2015-2044 (Billion KVA) 0.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.79 0.78

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 44.89 -3.68 -8.45 -10.55 -12.19 -19.45 -25.76 -29.19

Operating Cost (Savings in TSLs) ($Billions) 40.80 6.68 10.51 11.55 13.36 17.39 19.41 20.49

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.45 0.70 0.76 0.88 1.12 1.25 1.32

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 3.00 2.07 1.00 1.16 -2.06 -6.34 -8.70

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.28 -0.94 -1.72 -2.03 -4.59 -7.25 -8.68

Efficiency Level

Base 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Transformer Shipments 2015-2044 (Billion KVA) 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.15 1.13 1.13

Equipment Cost ($Billions) 20.04 -2.18 -3.22 -3.13 -2.79 -3.53 -11.14 -13.90

Operating Cost (Savings in TSLs) ($Billions) 35.90 4.43 7.52 9.21 10.69 12.67 17.08 18.09

Cumulative Source Savings 2044 (Quads) 0.31 0.51 0.62 0.71 0.84 1.11 1.18

Net Present Value at 3% Discount Rate ($Billions) 2.25 4.30 6.08 7.90 9.15 5.94 4.19

Net Present Value at 7% Discount Rate ($Billions) 0.38 0.82 1.37 1.99 2.19 -0.41 -1.52