### NES RESULTS

Summary of

Results We analyzed the impact of two trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts and the other for cathode cutout ballasts. The National Energy Savings and the Net Present Value of those savings to American business and industry are as follows:
Metric Range for Electronic Std. Range for Cathode Cutout Std Energy Savings (Quads) 1.04-3.61 0.51-2.32 Net Present Value (Billion $) 1.01-5.05 0.22-3.10 The discussion below describes how we developed these results. Efficiency Levels Analyzed The Department analyzed the impact of two trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts and the other for cathode cutout ballasts. We considered the following scenarios for electronic ballasts: end-users of magnetic ballast T12 systems choose (1) 100% T12 electronic ballasts or (2) 95% T8 and 5% T12 electronic ballasts, which is representative of present market shares. Additionally, because of comments received, we also considered two other scenarios. Scenario (3) assumes that the new/renovation market segment converts all ballasts to electronic, with 100 percent becoming T8 ballasts, starting on the effective date. This segment is assumed to comprise 63 percent of the total ballast market, based on the current luminaire market. The remaining 37 percent assumed replacement market has an additional delay of 5 years, after which these ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. Scenario (4) is identical to (3) except the delay for the assumed replacement market is two years. We considered the following scenarios for cathode cutout ballasts: end-users choose (1) 100% cathode cutout ballasts and (2) 37% cathode cutout and 63% electronic ballasts. Two base case forecasts of shipments of magnetic ballasts without standards were utilized as a reference case to which the scenarios were compared. Therefore, there are a total of eight possible electronic ballast standards scenarios as described below. There are also four cathode cutout standards scenarios as described below. Base Case: Decreasing Shipments to 2015 

### In this base case, the magnetic ballast shipments after 1997 are assumed to decrease at the rate at which most magnetic ballasts declined from 1993 through 1997, reaching a base level by 2015. This rate of decreasing magnetic ballasts shipments represents a conversion rate to electronic ballasts of approximately 5 percent per year. The base level represents 10 percent of the magnetic ballast shipments in 1997 for each ballast class and is carried out to 2030. NESRESULTS 

### Summary of Results We analyzed the impact oftwo trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts and the other for cathode cutout ballasts. The National Energy Savings and the NetPresent Value ofthose savings to American business and industry are as follows:

Metric Range for Electronic Std. Range for Cathode Cutout Std Energy Savings (Quads) 1.04

- 3.61 0.51

- 2.32 Net Present Value (Billion $) 1.01

- 5.05 0.22

- 3.10 The discussion belowdescribes howwe developed these results. 

### EfficiencyLevelsAnalyzed The Department analyzed the impact oftwo trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts and the other for cathode cutout ballasts. We considered the following scenarios for electronic ballasts: end-users ofmagnetic ballast T12 systems choose (1) 100% T12 electronic ballasts or (2) 95% T8 and 5% T12 electronic ballasts, which is representative ofpresent market shares. Additionally, because ofcomments received, we also considered two other scenarios. Scenario (3) assumes that the new/renovation market segment converts all ballasts to electronic, with 100 percentbecoming T8 ballasts, starting onthe effective date. This segment is assumed to comprise 63 percent ofthe total ballastmarket, based onthe current luminaire market. The remaining 37 percent assumed replacement market has an additional delay of5 years, after which these ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. Scenario (4) is identical to (3) exceptthe delay for the assumed replacement market is two years. We considered the following scenarios for cathode cutout ballasts: end-users choose (1) 100% cathode cutout ballasts and (2) 37% cathode cutout and 63% electronic ballasts. Two base case forecasts ofshipments ofmagnetic ballasts without standards were utilized as a reference case to whichthe scenarios were compared. Therefore, there are a total ofeight possible electronic ballast standards scenarios as described below. There are also four cathode cutout standards scenarios as described below. 

### Base Case: DecreasingShipments to 2015 Inthis base case, the magnetic ballast shipments after 1997 are assumedto decrease atthe rate at which most magnetic ballasts declined from 1993 through 1997, reaching a base level by 2015. This rate ofdecreasing magnetic ballasts shipments represents a conversion rate to electronic ballasts ofapproximately 5 percent peryear. The base level represents 10 percent ofthe magnetic ballast shipments in 1997 for each ballast class and is carried out to 2030.Base Case: Decreasing Shipments to 2027

In this base case, magnetic ballast shipments are assumed to decrease at a slower rate, reaching the same base level by 2027. This rate of decreasing magnetic ballasts shipments roughly represents a conversion rate to electronic ballasts of 3 percent per year. Electronic Ballast Standards Scenarios Scenario 1. This scenario assumes that 100 percent of magnetic ballasts are converted to electronic T12 ballasts. This scenario is intended to model the impacts of minimal compliance with the standard in regard to consumer choice. Scenario 2. This scenario assumes that all magnetic ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario is intended to model the trends in the current market where nearly all (95 percent) of electronic ballasts purchased from 1993 - 1997 have been T8 ballasts. Scenario 3

. This scenario assumes that the new/renovation luminaire market segment converts all ballasts to electronic, with 100 percent becoming T8 ballasts, starting on the effective date. This segment is assumed to comprise 63 percent of the total ballast market, based on the current luminaire market. The remaining 37 percent assumed replacement market has an additional delay of 5 years, after which these ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario allows a differing impact of the standards on these two market segments by providing an additional adjustment period for the replacement market users in existing buildings and on lamp manufacturers to prepare for the new ballast type and market shift. Scenario 4. This scenario has identical assumptions to Scenario 3, except that the additional delay period for the replacement market is 2 years. This scenario has the same logic as No. 3, with a shorter adjustment period. Each of the above four standard level forecasts is compared with that of the two different base cases. Forecasts under the "Decreasing Shipments to 2015" base case are denoted as Scenario IA, 2A, 3A, and 4A. Forecasts runs with the "Decreasing Shipments to 2027" base case are called Scenario 1B, 2B , 3B, and 4B. 

### Cathode Cutout Trial Standards Scenario 5. This scenario assumes that 100 percent of magnetic ballasts are converted to cathode cutout ballasts. The exception is the F96T12 ballast class, for which there is no cathode cutout option. These ballasts are assumed to remain as magnetic ballasts under the standards. This scenario is intended to model the impacts of minimal compliance with the standard in regard to consumer choice. Scenario 6. This scenario assumes that the 37 percent replacement market ballasts are converted Base Case: DecreasingShipments to 2027 Inthis base case, magnetic ballast shipments are assumed to decrease at a slower rate, reaching the same base level by 2027. This rate ofdecreasing magnetic ballasts shipments roughly represents a conversionrate to electronic ballasts of3 percent peryear. Electronic BallastStandards Scenarios Scenario 1. This scenario assumes that 100 percent ofmagnetic ballasts are converted to electronic T12 ballasts. This scenario is intendedto model the impacts ofminimal compliance with the standard inregard to consumer choice. Scenario 2. This scenario assumes that all magnetic ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario is intended to model the trends inthe current market where nearly all (95 percent) ofelectronic ballasts purchased from 1993

- 1997 have beenT8 ballasts. Scenario 3. This scenario assumes that the new/renovation luminaire market segment converts all ballasts to electronic, with 100 percentbecoming T8 ballasts, starting onthe effective date. This segmentis assumed to comprise 63 percent ofthe total ballast market, based onthe current luminaire market. The remaining 37percent assumedreplacement market has an additional delay of5 years, afterwhichthese ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario allows a differing impact ofthe standards onthese two market segments byproviding an additional adjustment period for thereplacement market users in existing buildings and on lamp manufacturers to prepare for thenewballasttype and market shift. Scenario 4. This scenario has identical assumptions to Scenario 3, exceptthatthe additional delayperiod for the replacement market is 2 years. This scenario has the same logic as No.3, with a shorter adjustment period. Each ofthe above four standard level forecasts is compared withthat ofthe two different base cases. Forecasts under the "Decreasing Shipments to 2015" base case are denoted as Scenario lA, 2A, 

### 3A, and

### 4A. Forecasts runs withthe "Decreasing Shipmentsto 2027" base case are called Scenario IB, 2B, 3B, and 4B. Cathode Cutout Trial Standards Scenario 5. This scenario assumes that 100 percent ofmagnetic ballasts are convertedto cathode cutoutballasts. The exception is the F96Tl2ballast class, for whichthere is no cathode cutout option. These ballasts are assumed to remain as magnetic ballasts underthe standards. This scenario is intended to model the impacts ofminimal compliance withthe standard inregard to consumer choice. Scenario 6. This scenario assumes thatthe 37 percent replacement market ballasts are convertedto cathode cutout ballasts, and the 63 percent new/renovation market ballasts are converted to

electronic ballasts, with 5 percent of the electronic ballasts becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. Forecasts run with the Decreasing Shipments to 2015 base case are denoted as 5A and 6A. Forecasts run with the Decreasing Shipments to 2027 base case are called 5B and 6B. Energy Savings To estimate the energy savings through the year 2030 due to revised standards, the energy consumption of ballasts under the base case is compared to the energy consumption of ballasts complying with the standard. The results presented in the Table use the AEO Reference Case forecast. The Table show the energy savings, energy savings with lighting/HVAC impacts, energy cost savings, equipment costs, and net present value for each of the standards scenarios.

Electronic Standards For Units Sold from 2003 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $)

SCENARIO Scen 1A T12 Decr201S Scen IB

T12 Decr2027 Scen 2A

T12/T8 Decr2015 Seen 2B

T121T8 Decr2027 Seen 3A

Decr2015 Seen 3B

Decr2027 Seen 4A

Decr201S Seen 4B

Decr2027 Total Quads Saved 1.04 1.84 2.04 3.61 1.69 3.19 1.90 3.46 Total Quads Saved w/HVAC* 1.11 1.96 2.17 3.84 1.8 3.39 2.02 3.68 Total Exa'oules Saved 1.10 1.94 2.15 3.81 1.79 3.36 2.01 3.66 Total Exa joules Saved w/ HVAC* 1.17 2.07 2.29 4.05 1.90 3.57 2.13 3.88 Total Benefit 2.02 3.22 3.98 6.33 3.14 5.29 3.60 5.90 Total Equipment Cost 1.01 1.62 0.80 1.27 0.61 1.04 0.70 1.16 Net Present Value 1.01 1.60 3.18 5.05 2.53 4.25 2.90 4.74 *For energy savings only; total benefit and net present value do not include HVAC savings.

Cathode Cutout Standards For Units Sold from 2003 to 2030 Discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $)

Scen 5A Scen 5B Scen 6A Scen 6B SCENARIO 100% CC 100% CC 37% CC 37% CC Decr2015 Decr2027 Decr2015 Decr2027 to cathode cutout ballasts, andthe 63 percent new/renovation market ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent ofthe electronic ballasts becoming TI2 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. Forecasts run withthe Decreasing Shipments to 2015 base case are denoted as 5A and 6A. Forecasts run withthe Decreasing Shipments to 2027 base case are called 5B and 6B. Energy Savings To estimate the energy savings through the year 2030 due to revised standards, the energy consumption ofballasts underthe base case is comparedto the energy consumption ofballasts complying with the standard. The results presented inthe Table use the ABO Reference Case forecast. The Table showthe energy savings, energy savings with lightingIHV AC impacts, energy cost savings, equipment costs, and netpresent value for each ofthe standards scenarios

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. ForUnits Sold from 2003 to 2030 Discounted at7% to 1997 (inbillion 1997 $)

ScenIA ScenIB Scen2A Scen2B Scen3A SCENARIO TI2 TI2 T12ffS T12ffS Decr20I5 Decr2027 Decr2015 Decr2027 Decr2015 Total Quads Saved 1.04 1.84 2.04 3.61 1.69 Total Quads Saved wlHV AC* 1.11 1.96 2.17 3.84 1.8 Total Exajoules Saved 1.10 1.94 2.15 3.81 1.79 Total Exajoules Saved wiHV AC* 1.17 2.07 2.29 4.05 1.90 Total Benefit 2.02 3.22 3.98 6.33 3.14 Total Equipment Cost 1.01 1.62 0.80 1.27 0.61 Net Present Value 1.01 1.60 3.18 5.05 2.53 *Forenergy savings only; total benefit and netpresentvalue do not include HVAC savings.

SCENARIO ForUnits Sold from 2003 to 2030**Disco~nted** at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $) Seen5A lOO%CC Decr2015 Seen5B lOO%CC Decr2027 . .

Scen3B Scen4A Scen4B
Decr2027 Decr20I5 Decr2027

3.19 3.39 3.36 3.57 5.29 1.04 4.25

Seen 6A 37%CC Decr2015 1.90 2.02 2.01 2.13 3.60 0.70 2.90 3.46 3.68 3.66 3.88 5.90 1.16 4.74

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Total Quads Saved 0.51 0.91 1.31 2.32 Total Quads Saved w/HVAC* 0.55 0.97 1.39 2.47 Total Exajoules Saved 0.54 0.96 1.38 2.45 Total Exajoules Saved w/HVAC* 0.58 1.02 1.47 2.60 Total Benefits 1.00 1.59 2.55 4.06 Total Equipment Cost 0.78 1.26 0.60 0.96 Net Present Value . 0.22 0.33 1.96 3.10

Energy savings from the electronic ballast standards scenarios range from about 1 Quad (1.1 exajoules) to 3.6 Quads (3.8 exajoules) of source energy. The energy savings increase when using the slower decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. Energy savings for Scenario 2 with T8 electronic ballasts are almost double those for Scenario 1 with T12 electronic ballasts. For Scenario 3, the five-year delay period causes a savings reduction of around 15 percent from that of Scenario 2, while for Scenario 4, the two-year delay period results in a savings reduction of about 5 percent. For the cathode cutout standards scenarios, energy savings range from 0.5 Quads (0.5 exajoules) to 2.3 Quads (2.5 exajoules). The Scenario 6 savings from partial conversion to electronic ballasts increases the savings by around a factor of 2.5 over those of Scenario 5. The additional HVAC savings increase the total energy savings for all levels by 6.25 percent. 

### Net Present Value The Table also shows net present value, which is a measure of the net savings to American business and industry from these standards. It is the difference between additional equipment costs and electricity cost savings. The NPV for the electronic ballast standards scenarios ranges from about 1 billion to 5 billion dollars ($1997). NPV increases when using the slower decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. NPVs for Scenario 2 with T8 electronic ballasts are more than triple those for Scenario 1 with T12 electronic ballasts. For Scenario 3, the five-year delay period causes an NPV reduction of around 15 - 20 percent from Scenario 2, depending on the shipments forecast. For Scenario 4, the 2-year phase-in period results in an NPV reduction of about 5 -10 percent from Scenario 2. 

### For the cathode cutout standards scenarios, NPV ranges from 0.2 to 3 billion dollars. The Scenario 6 savings from partial conversion to electronic ballasts increases the NPV by about a factor of 9. Note that AC energy cost savings are not included in any of the NPV calculations.

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# .. ....> .'. .' Total Quads Saved 0.51 0.91 1.31 2.32 Total Quads Saved wlHVAC* 0.55 0.97 1.39 2.47 Total Exajoules Saved 0.54 0.96 1.38 2.45 Total Exajoules Saved wlHVAC* 0.58 1.02 1.47 2.60 Total Benefits 1.00 1.59 2.55 4.06 Total Equipment Cost 0.78 1.26 0.60 0.96 Net Present Value .0.22 0.33 1.96 3.10

Energy savings from the electronic ballast standards scenarios range from about 1 Quad (1.1 exajoules) to 3.6 Quads (3.8 exajoules) ofsource energy. The energy savings increase when using the slower decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. Energy savings for Scenario 2 with T8 electronic ballasts are almost double those for Scenario 1with T12 electronic ballasts. For Scenario 3, the five-year delayperiod causes a savings reduction ofaround 15 percent from that ofScenario 2, while for Scenario 4, the two-year delayperiod results in a savings reduction of about 5 percent. Forthe cathode cutout standards scenarios, energy savings range from 0.5 Quads (0.5 exajoules) to 2.3 Quads (2.5 exajoules). The Scenario 6 savings from partial conversionto electronic ballasts increases the savings by around a factor of2.5 overthose of Scenario 5. The additional HV AC savings increase the total energy savings for all levels by 6.25 percent. 

### NetPresent Value The Table also shows netpresentvalue, which is a measure ofthe net savings to American business and industry from these standards. Itis the difference between additional equipment**~osts** and electricity cost savings. The NPV for the electronic ballast standards scenarios ranges from about 1billionto 5 billion dollars ($1997). NPV increases whenusing the slower decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. NPVs for Scenario 2 with T8 electronic ballasts are more thantriple those for Scenario 1 with TI2 electronic ballasts. For Scenario 3, the five-year delay period causes anNPV reduction ofaround 15

- 20 percent from Scenario 2, depending onthe

. shipments forecast. For Scenario 4, the 2-yearphase-inperiod results in anNPV reduction of

about 5 -10 percent from Scenario 2. Forthe cathode cutout standards scenarios, NPV ranges from 0.2 to 3 billion dollars. The Scenario 6 savings from partial conversionto electronic ballasts increases theNPV by about a factor of9. Note that HV AC energy cost savings are notincluded inany ofthe NPV calculations.