# FINAL 2003 AQMP APPENDIX III

BASE AND FUTURE YEAR EMISSION INVENTORIES

AUGUST 2003

### SOUTH COAST AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT DISTRICT GOVERNING BOARD

Chairman: WILLIAM A. BURKE, Ed.D. Speaker of the Assembly Appointee

Vice Chairman: S. ROY WILSON, Ed.D. Supervisor, Fourth District Riverside County Representative

MEMBERS:

FRED AGUIAR Supervisor, Fourth District San Bernardino County Representative

MICHAEL D. ANTONOVICH Supervisor, Fifth District Los Angeles County Representative

HAL BERNSON Councilmember, City of Los Angeles Cities Representative, Los Angeles County, Western Region

JANE W. CARNEY Senate Rules Committee Appointee

WILLIAM CRAYCRAFT Councilmember, City of Mission Viejo Cities Representative, Orange County

BEATRICE LAPISTO-KIRTLEY Councilmember, City of Bradbury Cities Representative, Los Angeles County, Eastern Region

RONALD O. LOVERIDGE Mayor, City of Riverside Cities Representative, Riverside County

LEONARD PAULITZ Councilmember, City of Montclair Cities Representative, San Bernardino County

JAMES SILVA Supervisor, Second District Orange County Representative

CYNTHIA VERDUGO –PERALTA Governor’s Appointee

EXECUTIVE OFFICER BARRY R. WALLERSTEIN, D.Env

## CONTRIBUTORS

Elaine Chang, DrPH Deputy Executive Officer Planning, Rule Development, Area Sources and Transportation

Mike A. Nazemi Planning Manager

Production Boyajian, Candy McFarland, Maria

CALIFORNIA AIR RESOURCES BOARD

Robert Fletcher Division Chief Technical Support Division

Linda Murchison Assistant Division Chief

Randy Pasek Mark Carlock Branch Chief Branch Chief Bassett, Mark Said, Mervat Eckerle, Ed Sunico, Efren Hsiao, Kathy Woods, Mary Lester, Julia Wu, Robert Nakamura, Susan Yan, Susan Pirveysian, Zorik Zhang, Xinqiu

Agrawal, Archana Johnson, Martin Asregadoo, Ray Lerch, Vivian Bhargava, Vijay Long, Jeff Calavita, Joe Patel, DilipTable of Contents

i 

### Table of Contents

CHAPTER 1 INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT

Background .................................................................................................................1-1 Air Contamin ants ........................................................................................................1-2 Inventory Source Category .........................................................................................1-7 Stationary Sources ...........................................................................................1-7 Point Sources ...................................................................................................1-7 Area Sources ....................................................................................................1-8 Mobile S ources ......................................................................................................... 1-15 On-Road Mobile Sources ...............................................................................1-15 Off-Road Mobile Sources..............................................................................1-17 Inventory Type.......................................................................................................... 1-20 Average Annual Day Inventor y.....................................................................1-20 Planning Inve ntory.........................................................................................1-20



### CHAPTER 2 SUMMARIES OF EMISSIONS

Baseline Emissions I nventories ..................................................................................2-1 Base Year Emission Data............................................................................................2-1 Future Year Em issions................................................................................................2-3 Control Factors.................................................................................................2-3 Growth Factors.................................................................................................2-6 Future Year Em ission Da ta............................................................................2-15 Emission Trend Analysis ..........................................................................................2-15 VOC Emissi ons..............................................................................................2-23 NO x Emissions...............................................................................................2-24 CO Emissions.................................................................................................2-24 PM 10 Emissions..............................................................................................2-24 Growth Impact ....................................................................................................... ...2-24 Mobile and Area Source Credit Programs................................................................2-25 Controlled Emissions Inventorie s.............................................................................2-27 Emission Impacts of SCAQMD Progr ams ...............................................................2-27 Hi-Low ...........................................................................................................2-27 RECLAIM Allo cation....................................................................................2-27 SIP Set Aside Accounts .................................................................................2-28 Growth from New and M odified Sour ces .....................................................2-28 Proposed Control Measures ......................................................................................2-36 Control Efficiency/C ontrol Fact or.................................................................2-36 Measure Impact Sources................................................................................2-37 CEPA Emission Ca lculati ons ................................................................................... 2-38 CARB Emi ssion Data Reports System .....................................................................2-39APPENDIX III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

ii 

### REFERENCES

ATTACHMENT A Average Annual Emissions Summary by Major Source Category



### ATTACHMENT B Summer Emissions Summary by Major Source Category



### ATTACHMENT C Winter Emissions Summary by Major Source Category



### ATTACHMENT D Top 300 SCAB VOC and NOx Producers in 1997



### ATTACHMENT E On-Road Emissions by Category



### ATTACHMENT F Emissions from Diesel Fuel by Major Source Category



### LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1-1: Comparison of Point Sour ce Emissions between 1993 and 1997 ..........1-9
Figure 1-2: Comparison of Area Sour ce Emissions between 1993 and 1997 ..........1-9
Figure 1-3: Comparison of On-Road Ba seline Emissions between EMFAC7G and EMFAC2002 ................................................................................................1-17
Figure 1-4: Comparison of Off-Road Baseline Emissions between 1997 AQMP and 2003 AQMP ..................................................................................................1-19
Figure 2-1: Comparison of Emissi ons Inventory of 1990 and 1997 .........................2-2
Figure 2-2: Relative Contri bution by Source Category to 1997 Emissions Inventory - Average Annua l Day....................................2-16
Figure 2-3: Relative Contri bution by Source Category to 1997 Emissions Inventory - Planning Invent ory.......................................2-17
Figure 2-4: Relative Contri bution by Source Category to 2010 Emissions Inventory - Average Annua l Day....................................2-18
Figure 2-5: Relative Contri bution by Source Category to 2010 Emissions Inventory - Planning Invent ory.......................................2-19
Figure 2-6A: VOC Emission Tr end by Source Category - Average Annua l Day .....................................................................................2-20Table of Contents

iii Figure 2-6B: VOC Emission Tr end by Source Category - Summer Pla nning........................................................................................... 2-20
Figure 2-7A: NO x Emission Trend by Source Category - Annual Averag e Day .....................................................................................2-21
Figure 2-7B: NO x Emission Trend by Source Category - Summer Pla nning........................................................................................... 2-21
Figure 2-8A: CO Emission Tr end by Source Category - Annual Averag e Day .....................................................................................2-22
Figure 2-8B: CO Emission Tr end by Source Category - Summer Pla nning........................................................................................... 2-22
Figure 2-9: PM 10 Emission Trend by Source Category - Annual Averag e Day .....................................................................................2-23



### LIST OF TABLES

Table 1-1: District Adopted Rules a nd Associated Emission Reduction in the 2003 AQMP Baseline ..............................................................................................1-3
Table 1-2: Rules and Regulations Adopted by CARB/U.S. EPA Since 1997/1999 AQMP..............................................................................................................1-5
Table 1-3: List of Compounds Exempt in U.S. EPA's Definition of VOC; Included in CARB's Definition of ROG .............................................................................1-6
Table 1-4: Comparison of 1993 and 1997 Major PM 10 Sources Emissions............1-13
Table 1-5: Changes in Ammonia Emissions Between 1995 and 1997....................1-14
Table 2-1: Rules and Regula tions Adopted/Amended by SCAQMD Between September 30, 1996 a nd October 31, 2002 ......................................2-4
Table 2-2: Control Factors by District Rules with Post-1997 Compliance Dates ............................................................................................2-5
Table 2-3: Growth Surroga tes by Source Category...................................................2-7

Table 2-4: Baseline Socioeconomic Forecasts Used in the 2003 AQMP ...............2-11

Table 2-5: Population For ecast by County in SCAB...............................................2-12

Table 2-6: SIC Code Growth Fact ors by County for th e Year 2010.......................2-13

Table 2-7: SIC Code Growth Fact ors by County for th e Year 2020.......................2-14APPENDIX III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

iv Table 2-8: Growth Impact to 2010 Annual Averag e Emissions..............................2-25

Table 2-9: Credit Rules a nd Associated Emissions.................................................2-26
Table 2-10: Summary of Emissions Growth Set-Aside for the 2003 AQMP (Tons per Day) ...............................................................................................2-28
Table 2-11: Annual Average Net Demand for ERCs in the Open Market..............2-30

Table 2-12: 2010 Net Demand for E RCs in the Open Market ................................2-31
Table 2-13: Annual Average Net Demand for Offsets in the AQMD's NSR Account ..........................................................................................................2-32

Table 2-14: 2010 Net Demand for ERCs in the AQMD's NSR Account ...............2-33

Table 2-15: Total 2010 Net Demand fro m New and Modified Sources .................2-33

Table 2-16: Estimated Emission Reducti on Benefit from Installation of BACT for New and Modifi ed Source s......................................................................2-34

Table 2-17: Emissions Added to C ontrolled Emissions for Attainment Demonstration................................................................................................2-36Table of Contents

v 

### LIST OF ACRONYMS

AQMP Air Quality Management Plan

CARB California Air Resources Board

CALTRANS California Depart ment of Transportation

CAA Federal Clean Air Act
CAT Catalytic Converters

CCAA California Clean Air Act
CEC California Energy Commission

CO Carbon Monoxide

DTIM Direct Travel Impact Model
EDS Emission Data System
EIS Emissions Inventory System
U.S.EPA U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

ERC Emission Reduction Credits

HD Heavy-Duty
LDV Light-Duty Vehicles
MDV Medium-Duty Vehicles
NCAT Non-Catalytic Converters

NO 2 Nitrogen Dioxide

NO x Oxides of Nitrogen

NSR New Source Review

PM Particulate Matter



### LIST OF ACRONYMS (continued)

PM 10 Particulate Matter Less Than 10 Microns In DiameterAPPENDIX III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

vi RECLAIM Regional Clean Air Incentives Market

SCAG Southern California Association of Governments
SCAQMD South Coast Air Quality Management District

SCC Source Classification Code

SIC Standard Industrial Code

SO x Oxides of Sulfur

TOG Total Organic Gases

UTM Universal Transverse Mercator

VMT Vehicle Miles Traveled
VOC Volatile Organic Compounds

# APPENDIX III

BASE AND FUTURE YEAR EMISSION INVENTORIES

## CHAPTER 1
INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT

Background
Air Contaminants Inventory Source Category
Mobile Sources Inventory TypeChapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-1 

### INVENTORY DEVELOPMENT

Background

To protect the public health and welfare, fe deral and state standards limit concentration levels of air contaminants in ambient air. An emission inventory of air pollutants and their sources is essential to identify the ma jor contributors of air contaminants and the measures required to reduce air pollution. 1997 is the base year used to project future year emissions for the 2003 Air Quality Mana gement Plan (AQMP). The 1997 base year emissions inventory reflects adopted ai r regulations that are implemented as of 1997; whereas future baseline emissions invent ories incorporate adopted rules with post1997 compliance dates and the projected growth factors. A list of SCAQMD rules and regulations and their emission reductions is presented in Ta ble 1-1. Table 1-2 lists California Air Resources Board (CARB) a dopted rules and regul ations and their associated emission reductions. Both the fe deral and state Clean Air Acts specify 1990 as the base year to measur e emission reduction progress. In these inventories, only anthropogenic sources (i.e., those associat ed with human activity) are considered. Besides 1997, emission levels of air contamin ants in the South Co ast Air Basin (Basin) are compiled for two pre-1997 years (1990, 1995 ), as well as nine future years (2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010 and 2020).
Information necessary to produce an emissi on inventory for the Ba sin is obtained from the SCAQMD and other governmental agenci es including: California Air Resources Board (ARB), California Department of Tr ansportation (Caltrans), and Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG).
Each of these agencies is responsible for co llecting data (e.g., indus try growth factors, socio-economic projections, travel activity le vels, emission factors, emission speciation profile, emissions) and devel oping methodologies (e.g., model and demographic forecast improvements) required to generate a comp rehensive emissions inventory. Entire statewide emissions inventories are compile d and maintained by CARB in its emission related information databases named Calif ornia Emission Invent ory Development and Reporting System (CEIDARS), and Califor nia Emission Foreca sting and Planning Inventory System (CEFIS). CARB is the agency responsible for developing the emissions inventory for all the mobile s ources. CARB provided on-road and off-road inventories from their EMFAC2002 and O ff-Road Models in the 2003 AQMP. SCAG is the primary agency for projecting th e growth. Caltrans provides SCAG with information regarding highway projects. SCAG incorporates these data into their Travel Demand Model for estimating/projecting vehi cle miles traveled (VMT) and speed. CARB’s on-road inventory also relies on SCAG’s VMT estimates.Appendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-2 

### Air Contaminants

Currently, air quality standards exist for th e following criteria air contaminants: ozone, nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), fine suspended particulate less than 10 microns (PM 10 ), lead, and sulfate. This appendix presents emission levels in the Basin for the criteri a air contaminants and their precursors. Specifically, data are included for emissions of total organic gases (TOG), volatile organic compounds (VOC), oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), oxides of sulfur (SO x ), CO, particulate matters (PM), PM 10 and fine suspended particulat e less than 2.5 microns (PM 2.5 ). The PM 2.5 emissions are presented in this doc ument because the U.S. EPA is in the process of adopting PM 2.5 air quality standards. Ozone is formed from photochemical reactions involving other air c ontaminants so it is not inventoried. Although air quality standards for NO x and SO x are based on NO 2 and SO 2 , respectively, emissions of NO x and SO x are in the emissions inventor y because multiple species of NO x and SO x contribute to the formation of particulate, and NO x and VOC react in the presence of sunlight to produce ozone. TOG incorpor ates all gaseous compounds containing the element carbon with the ex ception of the inorganic compounds, CO,

, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), carbonic acid, carbonates and metallic carbides. VOC, a subset of TOG, includes all organic gases in TOG ex cept acetone, ethane, methane, methylene chloride, methylchloroform, perchl oroethylene, methyl acetate, parachlorobenzotrifluoride, and a number of Freon-type gases. It should be noted that this definition of VOC is di fferent from the one used by the CARB, which includes some compounds not considered as U.S. EPA’s VOC . Table 1-3 lists the 19 compounds that are exempt in U.S. EPA’s VOC list, but ar e included in CARB’s ROG. Certain CFC’s are still included in the CARB’s VOC list. According to ARB, the total emission inventory difference between U.S. EPA VOC and CARB’s ROG is very small. PM represents all airborne particulate ma tters. Important subsets of PM are PM 10 and PM 2.5 . In this 2003 AQMP, the amount of VOC in TOG and the amount of PM 10 and PM 2.5 in PM are calculated for each process primarily using species and size fraction profiles provided by CARB. Besides av erage annual day emissions that are reported for all criteria pollutants, summer planning inventor ies (VOC and NOx) are reported for ozone purposes and winter planni ng inventories (CO and NO 2 ) are reported for carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide purposes.Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-3 Table 1-1 Rules and Regulations Adopted by Dist rict Since Adoption of 1997/1999 SIPs as of October 2002 a

Control Measure/Rule Title SIP Commitment

(tons/day) Emission Reductions Achieved Through Rule Implementation

(tons/day) Adoption Date

CTS-02C(P2) (Rule 1171) Solvent Cleaning Operations (VOC) 11.0 11.0 b 1999

WST-04 (Rule 1150.1) Disposal of VOC-Containing Materials (VOC) 0.8 0.8 2000

PRC-3(P2) (Rule 1138) Restaurant Operations (VOC) 0.9 c c

CTS-020 (Rule 442) Solvent Usage (VOC) 1 1.9 2000

CTS-02E (Rule 1168) Adhesives (VOC) 1.3 8.3 2000

RFL-02(P2) (Rule 461) Gasoline Service Stations (VOC) 2 6.2 2000

CTS-09(P1) (Rule 1132) Large Coating & Solvent Sources – High Emitting Spray Booth Facilities (VOC) 4 5.4 2000

FUG-06 (Rule 1189) Hydrogen Plants (VOC) 0.8 1.6 2000

FUG-05(P1) (Rule 1178) Large Fugitive Emissions Sources (VOC) 1 1.7 2001

PRC-06 (Rule 1131) Industrial Proce sses - Food Flavoring (VOC) 3 3.0 2001

CTS-08(P1) (Rule 1130) Industrial Coatings and Solvents (VOC) 2 1.9 2002

CTS-08(P2) Rule 1122) Solvent Degreasing (VOC) 3 6.2 2001

CTS-09(P2) (Rule 1162) Polyester Resins (VOC) 3 1.6 2002

Rule 1102 Dry Cleaners Using Solvent other than Perchloroethylene (VOC) N/A 0.3 2000

Rule 1104 Wood Flat Stock Coating Operations (VOC) N/A 0.1 1999

Rules adopted from October 1996 to September 1999 d 79.8 108.1 11/96- 9/99

Total VOC 113.6 158.1Appendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-4 Table 1-1 (Continued) Rules and Regulations Adopted by Dist rict Since Adoption of 1997/1999 SIPs as of October 2002 a

Control Measure/Rule Title SIP Commitment

(tons/day) Emission Reductions Achieved Through Rule Implementation

(tons/day) Adoption Date

CMB-06 (Rule 1121) Control of Nitrogen Oxides from ResidentialType Natural Gas Fired Water Heaters (NOx) 7.6 7.6 1999

Rule 1146 Emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen from Industrial, Institutional, and Commercial Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters (NOx) N/A 0.2 2000

Rules adopted from October 1996 to September 1999 d 2.4 4.2 11/96- 9/99

Total NOx 10 12

Rule 1158 Storage, Handling, and Transport of Petroleum Coke (PM10) N/A 1 1999

Rule 431.2 Sulfur Content of Liquid Fuels (PM10) (SOx) N/A 0.1 e 0.4 e 2000

PRC-3(P1) Rule 1138 Control of Emissions from Restaurant Operations (PM10) 7.0 1 1997

PRC-01 (Rule 1137) PM10 Emission Reductions from Woodworking Operations (PM10) 7.5 f 7.5 f 2002

Total PM10

SOx 16.1 9.6 0.4

a SCAQMD summer planning emission in 2010 (rounded to the nearest whole number), based on 1997 SIP inventory.
b An additional 16 tons of VOC emission reductions associated with Rule 1171 implementation are subject to technology assessments in 2003 and 2004 prior to implementation in 2005 and are not included in this value.

c Board approved infeasibility findings in October 2000 and used excess reducti ons from RFL-02(P2) to meet the SIP commitment.
d Reference: Table 1-1 of the 1999 Amendment to the 1997 Ozone SIP for the South Coast Air Basin (SCAQMD, 1999).

e Emission reductions listed include only those from stationary sources.
f SIP commitment and emission reduction achieved are based on 1997 AQMP inventory methodology.Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-5 Table 1-2 Rules and Regulations Adopted by CARB/U.S. EPA Since 1997/1999 SIPs*

RULE TITLE AGENCY VOC NO X ADOPTION DATE** Mid-Term Consumer Products I & II CARB 15 0 10/99 National Heavy-Duty Diesel Standards U.S. EPA 1 11 10/97 California Heavy-Duty Diesel Veh. Standards CARB 5 44 4/98 Clean Fuels (Phase 3/Phase 2/Chamber Dep.) CARB 13 12 12/98 California Large Off-Road Gas/LPG Engine Stds. CARB 16 5 10/98 National Heavy-Duty Off-Road Diesel Stds. U.S. EPA 6 25 10/98 Carl Moyer Program CARB 0 3 3/99 Marine Pleasure Craft Standards CARB/U.S.EPA 24 0 7/01 Motorcycle Standards CARB 1 0 12/98 Low Emission Vehicle Program – Phase II CARB 4 43 11/98 Gas Can Requirements *** CARB 34 0 9/99 Marine Vessel Standards U.S. EPA 0 2 12/99 California Heavy-Duty Off-Road Diesel Stds. CARB 4 18 1/00 Locomotive Standards (incl. MOU-M14)   U.S. EPA 0 17 5/98 Transit Bus Fleet Rule CARB 0 1 10/02 Enhanced Vapor Recovery ** *** CARB 6 0 3/00 Medium/Heavy Duty Gasoline Vehicle Stds. CARB 0 1 12/00 2007 Heavy-Duty Diesel Truck Standards CARB/U.S. EPA 1 16 10/01 Low-Sulfur Diesel Fuel Req. (enable retrofit) U.S. EPA 0 0 2/01 National Large Off-Road Gas/LPG Standards U.S. EPA 14 5 9/02 Small Off-Road Engine Standard Revisions CARB -1 0 3/98 Total 143 203

* SCAQMD summer planning emissions in 2010 (rounded to the nearest whole number), based on 1997 SIP inventory ** Only latest rule adoption date included. *** Portable fuel containers were not included in th e 1997/99 AQMP baseline. Emission reductions are from CARB rule adoptions Staff Report.   Emission reductions from locomotives represent the nationa l emission standards for locomotive engines as well as the MOU for the South Coast Air Basin. U.S. EPA has co mmitted to adopt a backstop comm itment to ensure that the emission reductions associated with the MOU are achieved. The MOU is hereby included as part of the 2003 AQMP SIP submittal. A copy of the MOU is availabl e at http://www.arb.ca.gov/ms prog/offroad/loc/loco.htm. ** *** CARB's rule complements District Rule 461. An overall reduction of 6 tons per day of VOC reductions from this category is included in the AQMP baseline.Appendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-6 Table 1-3

List of Compounds Exempt in U.S. EPA’s Definition of VOC; Included in CARB’s Definition of ROG

Compound CAS *

3,3-dichloro-1,1,1,2,2-pentafluoropropane (HCFC-225ca); [ 422-56-0 ] 1,3-dichloro-1,1,2,2,3-pentafluoropropane (HCFC-225cb); [ 507-55-1 ] 1,1,1,2,3,4,4,5,5,5-decafluoropentane (HFC-43-10mee); [ 138495-42-8 ] difluoromethane (HFC-32); [ 75-10-5 ] ethylfluoride (HFC-161); [ 353-36-6 ] 1,1,1,3,3,3-hexafluoropropane (HFC-236fa); [ 690-39-1 ] 1,1,2,2,3-pentafluoropropane (HFC-245ca); [ 679-86-7 ] 1,1,2,3,3-pentafluoropropane (HFC-245ea); [ 24270-66-4 ] 1,1,1,2,3-pentafluoropropane (HFC-245eb); [ 431-31-2 ] 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluoropropane (HFC-245fa); [ 460- 73-1 ] 1,1,1,2,3,3-hexafluoropropane (HFC-236ea); [ 431-63-0 ] 1,1,1,3,3-pentafluorobutane (HFC-365mfc); [ 406-58-6 ] chlorofluoromethane (HCFC-31); [ 593-70-4 ] 1-chloro-1-fluoroethane (HCFC-151a); [ 1615-75-4 ] 1,2-dichloro-1,1,2-trifluoroethane (HCFC-123a); [ 354-23-4 ] 1,1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4-nonafluoro-4-methoxy-butane (C 4 F 9 OCH 3 ); [ 163702-07-6 ] 2-(difluoromethoxymethyl)-1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane ( (CF 3 ) 2 CFCF 2 OCH 3 ); [ 163702-08-7 ] 1-ethoxy-1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,4-nonafluorobutane (C 4 F 9 OC 2 H 5 ); [ 163702-05-4 ] 2-(ethoxydifluoromethyl)-1,1,1,2,3,3,3-heptafluoropropane ( (CF 3 ) 2 CFCF 2 OC 2 H 5 ); [ 163702-06-5 ]

* Note: Chemical Abstract Service (CAS) identification num bers have been included in brackets [ ] for convenience.Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-7 

### Inventory Source Category
Stationary Sources

Stationary sources of emissions are grouped into two categorie s. They are point sources and area sources. Point source emissions ar e from facilities having one or more pieces of equipment registered and permitted with SCAQMD. Therefore, SCAQMD is able to collect facility emission related information. Area source emissions are from numerous small facilities or pieces of equipment, such as gasoline-dispensing facilities, residential water heaters, consumer products and architect ural coatings, for which locations are not specifically identified. For modeling purpos es, area source emissions are spatially allocated to grid cells using demographic data (e.g., population, housing, and land use).

Point Sources
The 1997 point source emissions inventory is based on the emissi ons data reported by point source facilities in the 1996/97 Annual Em issions Reporting (AER) Program. This program applies to facilities emitti ng 4 tons or more of VOC, NO x , SO x , or PM or emitting more than 100 tons of CO per yea r, as specified in Rule 301(e) which are required to pay emission fees. Facilities subject to the AER Program calculate and report their emissions primarily based on their th roughput data (e.g., fuel usage, material usage), appropriate emission factors, and cont rol efficiency (if applicable). Under the 1996/97 AER Program, approximately, 3200 facilitie s reported their annual emissions to SCAQMD. Emissions from smaller industrial facilities not subject to the AER Program, which represent a small fraction of the overall inventory, are included as part of the area source inventory.

In order to prepare the point source inventory, emissions data for each facility were categorized based on EPA’s Source Classi fication Codes (SCCs) for each emission source category. Since the AER Program colle cts emissions data on an aggregate basis (i.e., equipment and processes with same emission factor are grouped and reported together), facility’s permitted equipment data were used in conjunc tion with the reported data to assign the appropriate SCC codes and develop the i nventory at SCC level. For modeling purpose, facility locati on is specified in Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) coordinates. Business operati on activity profile is also recorded. For growth purpose, facility business type is designated by Standard Industrial Code (SIC).Appendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-8 Area Sources
SCAQMD and CARB shared the responsib ility for developing the 1997 area source emissions inventory for approximately 350 area source categories. Specifically, SCAQMD developed the area source inventor y for about 90 categories whereas CARB developed the remaining area source ca tegories (of which 230 categories were associated with consumer products, architect ural coatings, and de greasing). For each area source category, a specific methodology is used for estimating emissions. In the 1997 area source inventory, a number of exis ting methodologies were used with updated activity data such as fuel da ta or sales data (e.g., fuel combustion categories, landfills, oil/gas production); new met hodologies were developed fo r several categories (e.g., agricultural pumps, residential wood co mbustion); three new categories (i.e., composting, cargo tanks and gas cans) were added to the i nventory, and other existing methodologies were refined ba sed on more recent studies (e.g., consumer products, architectural coatings).



### Comparison of 1993 and 1997 inventories

Figure 1-1 and 1-2 provide a comparison of the 1993 in the 1997 AQMP and 1997 point and area source inventories for all pollutants.Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-9 94

84 94

79

22 24

14 12

0 20 40 60 80 100

T

o

n
s

P

e

r D

a y

VOC NOx SOx PM10 1993
1997

FIGURE 1-1 Total Point Source Emissions

357 333

60 53

1 1 366

228

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

T

o

n
s

P

e

r D

a y

VOC NOx SOx PM10 1993
1997

FIGURE 1-2 Total Area Source EmissionsAppendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-10 Changes in Point Sources

The point source inventory (except SO x ) continued its downward tr end primarily due to the implementation of existing stationary source re gulations. As indicate d in Figure 1-1 above, the 1993 VOC and NO x emissions decreased from 94 and 94 tons per day to 84 and 79 tons per day respectively in 1997. In addition to th e effect of existing re gulations, another major reason for the decreased VOC emissions was the use of EPA’s correlation equations for calculating fugitive emissions (i.e., component leaks) by the petroleum industry, which significantly reduced the calcu lated fugitive emissions.

Also, VOC emissions (primarily methanol) from hydrogen plants process vents in refineries were identified for the first tim e in 1997, which were included in the baseline inventory. This new emission source categor y contributed to about two t ons of VOC emissions per day in 1997 and is currently regulated under SCAQMD Rule 1189. For NO x emissions, the majority of the emission decrease in 1997 (com pared to 1993) is attr ibuted to reductions achieved through the RECLAIM Pr ogram. The increase in SO x emissions was primarily due to changes in methodology for estimating emissions from refinery flares. The decrease in PM10 was primarily due to implementation of se veral BACM rules (e.g., Rule 403 and Rule 1186).

Changes in Area Sources
The area source inventory also decreased be tween 1993 and 1997 for all criteria pollutants due to the effect of rules adopted by SCAQMD and CARB as well as due to the improved or updated area source methodologies used for estimating emissions, which are briefly discussed below.

Rule Implementation

The 1998 Architectural and Industrial Mainte nance Coatings Surv ey conducted by CARB indicated an increase in the use of water-based coatings compared to oil-based coatings between 1990 and 1996 (76% to 82%), prim arily due to the SCAQMD Rule 1113 – Architectural Coatings. As a result, VOC emissions decreased by 5 tons per day in 1997 compared to 1993.

In addition, a number of other rules whic h had implementation dates between 1993 and 1997 contributed to some of the emission reducti ons between these years. Emission source categories mostly affected by rules included: adhesive applications (Rule 1168), commercial bakery ovens (Rule 1153), screen printing operations (Rule 1130.1), solvent cleaning operations (Rule 1171), marine tank vessel ope rations (Rule 1142), sumps and wastewater separators (Rule 1176), organic liquid loading (Rule 462), gasoline transfer and dispensingChapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-11 (R461), stationary internal com bustion engines (Rule 1110.2), sulf ur content of gaseous fuels (Rule 431.1), and consumer products regulated by CARB.

Improved/Updated Methodologies

Gasoline Dispensing - Emissions from gasoline dispensing were adjusted to account for the low levels of compliance id entified in various audits conducted by SCAQMD since 1997 and tests conducted by CARB in 1999. The audits and tests revealed that the overall vapor recovery effectiveness at gaso line dispensing facilities was significantly reduced as a result of many defects found in the systems. The adju stment caused an increase of the emissions for this category from 23 tons per da y in 1993 to 35 tons per day in 1997.

Industrial Coatings - A more detailed evaluation of th e unspecified industrial coatings category revealed that emissions from this cate gory were previously over-estimated and were primarily attributed to more specific coating categories. Accordingly, the emissions from this category were distributed to appropriate categories.

Consumer Products - A comprehensive survey of cons umer products and aerosol coatings was conducted by CARB in 1997 which identifie d a number of new product categories not inventoried before and also provided a more accurate basis for estimating emissions from existing categories. Between 1993 and 1997, emissions from this category were also reduced due to CARB’s consumer products regulation. The net e ffect of the survey results and CARB’s regulation was an overall increase in VOC emissions from 105 to 118 tons of VOC per day.

Residential Wood Combustion - For the residential wood co mbustion category (fireplaces), AQMD used a new methodology which relie d on the total number of wood burning households in each county (based on survey re sults), the estimated am ount of wood burned, and AP-42 emission factors. The new met hodology increased the PM and CO emissions from 0.4 and 6 tons per day in 1993 to 4 and 28 tons per da y in 1997 respectively. CARB is currently evaluating other met hodologies and is also conducting a survey to develop a better estimate of emissions from this category.

Composting - As part of the overall ammonia em issions inventory update, emissions from composting operations were quan tified for the first time. VOC emissions from composting were estimated at 6.8 tons/day. (Ammonia em issions are discussed in the Special Studies section below.)

Truck Stops - This is the first time that idle emissions from truck stops have been included in the inventory. Truck stops emissions we re estimated from survey data from IdleAire Technologies Corp. conducted in 2001 and emission rates pr ovided by CARB. There are approximately 1,700 truck stop spaces in the SC AB, located in Fontana, Ontario, Banning,Appendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-12 Colton, Rialto, Vernon and Wilm ington. Part of the truck stop emissions are counted in CARB’s EMFAC2002. CARB collected truck st op data from in-state trucks and grouped them into idle emissions with the other truck idling activities, such as idling at distribution centers, idling for loading and unloading, and in-trip idling. CARB will expand and complete their truck stop emission data in th eir next generation of on-road mobile source emission factors. The overlapping part of the truck stop emissions in the EMFAC2002 has been eliminated. The estimat ed 2010 annual average day emi ssions are 0.14 tons and 2.52 tons for VOC and NO x respectively.

Metrolink - Commuter train emissions were never estimated in the inventory and are now grouped under the Trains categor y. Southern California Re gional Rail Authority provided the total train miles, train travel time, av erage speed and engine specifications. CARB provided the emission rates and EPA’s passenge r locomotive driving cycles for emission estimates. The estimated 2010 annual average w eek day emissions are 0.11 tons, 2.95 tons and 0.35 tons for VOC, NO x and SO x respectively.

Fugitive Dust - Subsequent to the approval of the 1997 AQMP, CARB released updated emission factors for several fugitive dust sources. The 2003 AQMP incorporates those updated emission factors and / or 1997 activity data for source categories such as entrained paved and unpaved road dust, construction, windblown dust, and farming operations. The greatest change was in the estimation of wi ndblown agricultural dust; new emission factors dramatically reduced annual emission estimat es. (Windblown dust can still be a major contributor during high wind epis odes). Better road constructi on activity data have become available with the release of SCAG’s 2001 RT P, resulting in revised road construction emissions. Although VMT increased slightly in 1997, entrained paved road dust emission estimates are smaller in the 2003 AQMP due to lower CARB emission factor. Entrained road dust remains the major s ource of fugitive primary PM 10 emissions. Overall emission estimates were lower for the 2003 AQMP. Table 1-4 indicates the changes in PM 10 (tons/day) to the fugitive dust inventories.Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-13 Table 1-4 Comparison of 1993 and 1997 Major PM 10 Sources Emissions (Tons/Day)

Source Category 1997 AQMP 2003 AQMP 1993 Inventory 1997 Inventory

Paved Road Dust 168.9 134.3 Unpaved Road Dust 52.4 13.0 Construction 44.3 29.6 Windblown 54.2 19.2 Farming Operations 15.7 7.4 Landfills 1.0 0.2 Total 336.5 203.7

Special Studies

Aircraft – In 1999, an inventor y study was conducted by En ergy and Environmental Analysis for SCAQMD to develop the 1997 airc raft emissions for commercial, general aviation (GA), and military airpor ts. The aircraft activity data (i.e., number of aircraft operations by aircraft types) was obtained from commercial airport operators, and from FAA for general aviation airports. The U.S. EPA’s Emissions Dispersion Modeling System (EDMS) was used in this study to calculate aircraft emissions. Emissions from commercial aircraft were calculated based on the aircraft type, engine type, numbe r of engines, time-inmode, emission factors, mixing height, and the number of la nding and take-off cycles. GA aircraft emissions were primarily calculated us ing AP-42 emission factor s. Military airport emissions were provided by m ilitary airport operators. Fo r future years, SCAG’s 2025 projected emission inventories for commercial ai rports and growth fa ctors for GA airports were utilized. For intermediate years, emissi ons for commercial airports were interpolated between 1999 and 2025 based on th e passenger level (i.e., million air passengers) specified for each commercial airport in the 2001 Regional Transportation Plan.

Marine Vessels – The Marine Vessels Emissions Inventory study was conducted in 1999 by Arcadis, Geraghty and Miller (previously known as Acurex Environmental) for SCAQMD to update the 1997, 2000, 2010, and 2020 baseline emissions invent ory. The Study included ocean-going vessels (calling on San Pedro Bay Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach or on the Chevron offshore facility at El Segundo, as well as ships tran siting through the area without calling on the ports), tugboats, harbor vessels, fishing vessels , and U.S. Navy and coast Guard Vessels. Emissions for ocean-goi ng vessels (i.e., tankers, container ships, passenger ships) were calculated based on the activity data including the number of ships calling on the ports, propul sion type (motor ship, steamship), engine size, service speed,Appendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-14 time-in-mode (hotelling, maneuve ring and cruising), power requi rement for each mode, and the available emission factors for different engi ne types. Emissions from other marine vessel categories were primarily calculated based on th e number of vessels, fuel consumption rate, and appropriate emission factors.

Ammonia Sources - A comprehensive revision to the ammonia inventory was performed by AVES(ATC) as part of the Technical Enha nce Program 2000 (TEP2000) program. The final report was released in August 2001 and entitled “1997 Gr idded Ammonia Emission Inventory Update for the South Coast Air Ba sin.” This revision systematically updated emission factors and activity levels (e.g. popul ation) for Basin ammonia sources. The inventory now includes composting emissions, a previously uninventorie d source. Based on recent tunnel studies, including Fraiser and Ca ss (1998), AVES recommends that the mobile source emission factor is 3 to 4 times greate r than previously estimated. This change dramatically changes the amount of mobile source ammonia emissions, but these emissions continue to be spread out sp atially. However, until federal and state agencies review and confirm the new emission factor, AQMD staff will continue to use the current lower emission factor in its PM modeling. The AVE S inventory also show s fewer emissions from poultry (lower emission facto r) and horses (smaller population estimate and emission factor), and higher emissions from dairy cows (higher emission factor and inclusion of heifers and calves) than the 1997 AQMP inventory. Table 1-5 summarizes the changes to the ammonia inventory.

Table 1-5 Changes in Ammonia Emissions (Tons/Day) between 1995 and 1997

Source Category 1997 AQMP 2003 AQMP 1995 Inventory 1997 Inventory Soil / Fertilizer 50.0 41.9 Domestic 9.1 25.9 Point / Other 3.1 13.2 Cattle 10.8 32.4 Poultry 28.8 22.6 Other Livestock 17.0 5.4 Composting / Related Operations NI 8.7 Mobile Source 7.0 7 Total 155.8 157.1Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-15 

### Mobile Sources

On-Road Mobile Sources
Caltrans, CARB, SCAG, and the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) supply data necessary to develop the on-road mobile s ource inventory. DMV maintains a count of registered vehicles; and Caltrans provides highway network, traffic counts and road capacity data. SCAG maintains the regi onal transportation model containing the temporal and spatial distributi on of motor vehicle activity (travel time, travel speed, and volume of traffic for morning-peak, afte rnoon-peak, mid-day and night hours). In addition, SCAG periodically conducts origin and destination surv eys to validate the regional transportation model, and updates a demographic database for population, housing, employment and patterns of la nd use within SCAQMD jurisdiction.

CARB estimates on-road motor vehicle emi ssions from their emissions model called EMFAC. Emission rate data are collected from various sources, such as individual vehicles in a laboratory setting, tunnel studi es and certification data, etc. Vehicle activity data are obtained from regional pla nning agencies, such as SCAG. The EMFAC model calculates exhaust and evaporative em ission rates by vehicle type for different temperatures, operating speeds and rela tive humidity. Temperature and humidity profiles are used to produce month specifi c, annual average; seasonal and episodic inventories. Parameters accounted for by EM FAC include the followi ng: type of control technology and fuel usage, di stribution of operating speed s, speed and temperature correction factors, and the reduction in emi ssions resulting from the state’s motor vehicle regulatory programs. CARB released the latest emissions model (EMFAC2002) in September, 2002 to be used for the development of the motor vehicle emissions inventory. EMFAC2002 includes (1) thirte en vehicle classes (light-duty passenger, light-duty trucks under 3750 pounds, light-duty trucks between 3750 pounds and 5750 pounds, medium-duty trucks , light-heavy-duty trucks between 8501 pounds and 10000 pounds, light-heavy-duty trucks betw een 10000 pounds and 14000 pounds, mediumheavy-duty trucks, heavy-hea vy-duty-trucks, line-haul, urba n buses, motorcycles, school buses and motor homes.); (2) two fuel type s (gas and diesel); (3) three technology groups (catalyst, non-catalyst, and diesel ); (4) 60 calendar years (1980-2040); (5) two exhaust processes (starts and running); (6) four evaporative processe s (diurnal, hot soak, running loss, and resting loss); (7 ) seven pollutants (HC, CO, CO 2 , NO X , PM, SO X , lead) and (8) fuel consumption. EMFAC2002 also includes a “What-If-Scenario Generator” (WIS) that can be used to ev aluate the impacts that changes to various inputs, such as population, vehicle speed or control strategy, would have on motor vehicle emissions. In the Final AQMP, SCAG’s updated activity data were incorporated into EMFAC2002 model to estimate the on-road emission inventories.
For modeling gridded i nventory, emissions from on-road motor vehicles are estimated at grid level, by using Caltrans’ Direct Trav el Impact Model (DTIM). DTIM calculates emissions based on detailed information rega rding each link (roadway segment) in anAppendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-16 area for each hour of the day. The required inputs of the model include traffic volume, traffic speed, vehicle fleet characteristics, a nd ambient temperature. The characteristics of DTIM include: (1) It calculates emissions based on more specific information, such as link speed, link volume, and temperature; (2) It takes into consideration the spatial and temporal distribution of emi ssions, thus providing hourly gr idded emissions; and (3) It can show the emission impact on various t ypes of transportation and regional planning alternatives (e.g., changes in roadway network configurati on, or public transportation services). DTIM system consists of three step s. First step is to reformat and sort emission rates for all vehicle classes pr oduced by the CARB vehicle emission factor program (EMFAC). Second step is to pr oduce average emission rates for specific vehicle classes identified by the user. The last step is to combine emission rates with vehicle activity estimates from a trans portation demand model and supplemental information on temperatures and temporal patterns to produce regional mobile source emissions and hourly gridded mobile emissions. DTIM provides the detailed emission inputs needed by photochemical grid models such as Urban Airshed Model (UAM). DTIM4 has been recently updated to incorporate CARB’s EMFAC2002.

CARB’s EMFAC7G model was used in th e 1997 AQMP. EMFAC 2002 model is used in this 2003 AQMP. Between these two models, CARB released two other EMFAC models; they are EMFAC2001 version 2. 02 and EMFAC2001 vers ion 2.08. Major improvements from EMFAC7G to EMFAC2002, other than updated all the existing factors from the most current adopted rule s and available data and items mentioned previously (thirteen vehicle cl asses, two exhaust processes, four evaporative processes, sixty calendar years....,etc.), include update d unregistered vehicle estimates; updated Inspection/Maintenance benefit estimates; update d idle emission rates; extended idle for heavy-duty trucks; adding EV II and Tier II programs; and adding air conditioning correction factors. A de tailed description of EMFAC2002 is available at CARB’s website. ( www.arb.ca.gov/msei/msei.htm ) EMFAC2002 results indicate that EMFAC7G underestimated the emissions. Figure 1-3 provides a comparison of the 1997 on-road annual average emissions (tons /day) by pollutant between EMFAC7G and EMFAC2002. It should be noted that in addition to met hodology improvements, EMFAC2002 also incorporates rules adopt ed since the release of EMFAC7G.
The on-road planning and annua l average inventories in this Appendix are based on CARB’s EMFAC2002 inventories, while DTIM is used to develop modeling inventory. EMFAC2002 has been approved by the U. S. EPA for use as a SIP motor vehicle emissions model, and for use in analyz ing conformity against emission budgets. Accordingly, EMFAC2002 will be the basis fo r on-road planning i nventories, emission budgets, and rate-of-progress calculations.Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-17 FIGURE 1-3 Comparison of 1997 and 2010 Baseline Emi ssions Between 1997 AQMP (EMFAC7G) and 2003 AQMP (EMFAC2002)

Off-Road Mobile Sources

All mobile sources not included in the on-ro ad mobile source inventory are considered as “off-road” mobile sources which include aircraft, ships, commercial boats, recreational vehicles, construc tion equipment, etc. This is the first time CARB’s OFFROAD model is used to estim ate off-road emissions in the AQMP. This model calculates emissions from more than one hundred equipment types. “OFF-ROAD” model incorporates various aspects of off-road elements, such as th e effects of various adopted regulations, technology types, and seasonal conditions on emissions. The model combines population, activity, horsepower, load factors, emission factors and control factors to yield the annual equipment emissions by county, air basin or state. The spatial 165 443

212 519

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

1997 2010 VOCTons/Day 365 606

434 761

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

1997 2010 NOxTons/Day

14 20 21 19

0 5 10 15 20 25

1997 2010 PM10Tons/Day

1809 3625

2048 5092

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

1997 2010 COTons/Day

1997 AQMP 2003 AQMPAppendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-18 and temporal features have also been inco rporated to estimate the seasonal emissions. The improvements from the “OFF-ROAD” mode l versus the met hodology used before include: (1) More equipment types, horsepow er groups and fuel types are categorized; (2) Average maximum horsepower, load factor and usage estimates are updated based on recent available data. (3) E quipment population in any given calendar year is distributed by age; (4) All the adopted regulations relate d to emission reductions are reflected in the emission calculations. These features make the OFF-ROAD model more accurate in its depiction of emissions. Off-road emi ssions can be found at CARB’s website. (www.arb.ca.gov/msei/off-road/off-ro ad.htm) Currently other than ships, aircraft, locomotive and recreational vehicles, all th e other categories are being estimated from the OFF-ROAD model. CARB’s updated popula tion and activity data in lawn and garden and locomotive categories were used in the 2003 AQMP. Continuous effort is being made to improve the off-road mobile source emissions. Fi gure 1-4 illustrates the comparison of emissions presen ted in the 1997 AQMP and 2003 AQMP.Chapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-19 FIGURE 1-4 Comparison of Off-Road Baseline Emissions 1997 AQMP and 2003 AQMP (off-road model) (Annual Average Emissions) 119 112 123 237

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

1997 2010 VOCTons/Day 228 251 257 312

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

1997 2010 NOxTons/Day

1335 1248 1094 1410

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

1997 2010 COTons/Day 16 14 19 21

0 5 10 15 20 25

1997 2010 PM10Tons/Day

1997 AQMP 2003 AQMPAppendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-1-20 

### Inventory Type

Average Annual Day Inventory
The average annual day emi ssions inventory was derive d primarily by dividing the annual total emissions by 365, except for the emissions derived from CARB’s EMFAC2002 (on-road mobile sources) and OFFROAD (most off-road mobile sources) models. For those sources, the average a nnual day emissions represent 40% of winter emissions and 60% of the summer emissions . In addition, the average annual day inventory was developed for all criteria polluta nts regardless of their attainment status. The average annual day emissions are used to estimate cost-effectiveness of proposed control measures and future tracking of AQMP implementation (e.g., annual progress report on rule adoption).

Planning Inventory
The challenge of bringing the Basin air quality into compliance with state and federal air quality standards is complicated by the fact that ambient concentrations of ozone are typically at their highest during the su mmer (defined as May through October for planning purposes) while those for CO and NO 2 are generally highest during the winter months (November through April). Any stra tegy designed to mitigate air pollution in the Basin must consider this seasonal va riation in ambient air quality. Planning inventories are also referred to as seasonal inventories. These inventories only present emissions for those air pollutants or thei r precursors for which the area is in nonattainment with state or federal air quality st andards. The intent of a planning inventory is to characterize emission levels representa tive of those that occur during the typical season of violations. For example, the su mmer, or ozone, planning inventory contains emissions of ozone precursors (i.e. VOC and NO x ) during the summertime. The winter, CO and NO 2 , planning inventory represent emission levels during the wintertime. These planning inventories provide the basis for tracking emission reduction progress specified by the federal Clean Air Act (CAA) and Ca lifornia Clean Air Act (CCAA). The CAA requires the District to produce a plan for re ducing all non-attainment pollutants or their precursors by fifteen percent between 1990 and 1996, and three percent each year thereafter, averaged every c onsecutive three years until reach ing the attainment date. The CCAA requires emission reduc tions by five percent or more per year, averaged every three consecutive years until 2000. In addition, the CAA specifies 1990 as the base year, whereas the CCAA specifies 1987.
CARB has developed guidelines for the developm ent of planning invent ories. For point sources emission estimates represent an “average annual operating day.” Emissions from point sources are calculated by dividi ng the total annual emissions produced by a source by the number of days th e source was in operation. For example, if a company emitted 150 tons in a year and the production lines operated 5 days a week for 40 weeks, then the average operating emi ssions from this facility are calculated to be 150 tons divided by 200 days or 0.75 tons per day. Although emissions of volatile organicChapter 1 Inventory Development

III-1-21 compounds (VOC) from some sources may depe nd on the ambient temperature or other meteorological factors, adjustments are not currently made for these parameters. However, CARB staff is continuing to evaluate possible adjustments.

For area and other mobile s ources, planning emissions represent an “average seasonal operating day.” As an example, VOC emissions produced by asphalt road-paving operations are calculated by taking into acc ount the variation in monthly levels and weekly operating days for paving activity dur ing the year. Road paving varies from maximum rates during the summer season to mi nimum levels during the winter season. Paving activity varies throughout the week w ith, on average, five operating days in a week. The allocation of annual area sour ce emissions among the seasons is based on estimated relative monthly and weekly emi ssions patterns. As pointed out earlier, sources included in CARB’s OFF-ROAD m odel do include seasonal activity and temperature profiles which are used to de velop the planning inventories.
Both summer and winter planning on-road emission inventorie s were provided by CARB by incorporating SCAG’s updated ac tivity data into CARB’s EMFAC2002.

## CHAPTER 2
SUMMARIES OF EMISSIONS

Baseline Emissions Inventories
Base Year Emission Data
Future Year Emission Data Emission Trend Analysis Growth Impact
Controlled Emissions Inventories Emission Impacts of SCAQMD Programs Proposed Control Measures
CEPA Emission Calculations CARB Emission Date Report SystemChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-1 

### BASELINE EMISSIONS INVENTORIES

Base Year Emission Data

The 1997 emission inventory is us ed as the base year inventory to project future year emissions. It represents the most recent a nd comprehensive inventor y development. For the purposes of Reasonable Further Progress (RFP) repor ting as required by both the federal and state CAAs, 1990 emissions were reconstructed. 1990 emissions were reconstructed or backcast from 1997 using th e latest inventory methodologies (e.g., EMFAC2002 and OFF-ROAD) and socioeconom ic/demographic data for all source categories, except for the point sources wher e reported emissions by facilities were used. Attachments A, B and C include emi ssions for 1995, 1997, 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, a nd 2020 by major source categories. A major source category refers to a group of emission sources with similar characteristics. Emissions result primarily from the combustion of fuels, evapor ation of solvents or fuels, and processing of materials. Hence, stationary sour ces are grouped under fuel combustion; waste disposal; cleaning and surface coatings; petr oleum production and ma rketing; industrial processes; solvent evaporation; and other mi scellaneous processes. Mobile sources are divided into two source categories: 1) on-road , and 2) other (off-ro ad) mobile sources. On-road mobile sources include light-dut y passenger vehicles; light-, medium-, and heavy- heavy duty trucks; motorcycles; ur ban buses; school buses and motor homes. Other mobile sources include aircraft; tr ains; ships and commercial boats; off-road recreational vehicles; off-road equipment; fa rm equipment, fuel storage and handling and truck stops. Attachment A summarizes annual average day baseline inventories at major source category. Attachment B is fo r summer planning baseline inventories and Attachment C is for winter planning invent ory. Attachment D lists top 300 VOC and NOx polluters (facilities) in the 1997 inventory in the SCAB. Attachment E illustrates on-road emissions by vehicle class for 1990, 1997, 2006, 2010, and 2020. Due to the recent significance placed on diesel emissions, Attachment F has been added, showing various source categories’ emissions due to combustion of diesel fuel. Figure 2-1 compares the annual average emissions be tween 1990 and 1997. All pollutants have been significantly reduced be tween these two years. The adopted air rules and regulations are the major contributors toward the reductions.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-2 FIGURE 2-1 Comparison of Annual Average Em issions Inventor y of 1990 and 1997 1,172 1,780

0 500 1000 1500 2000

1990 1997 VOC EmissionsTons/Day 1,204 1,592

0 500 1000 1500 2000

1990 1997 NOx EmissionsTons/Day

6,653 10,589

0 1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 9000 10500 12000 13500

1990 1997 CO EmissionsTons/Day 58 98

0 40 80 120

1990 1997 SOx EmissionsTons/Day

279 339

0 150 300 450 600

1990 1997 PM10 EmissionsTons/Day

Off-Road Point Area On-RoadChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-3 FUTURE YEAR EMISSIONS Future baseline emissions, which are thos e expected if no additional air quality regulations are introduced, are given in this appendix for the years 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2020. These emissions are forecast from the 1997 base year by incorporating the controls implemented under SCAQMD and CARB rules adopted as of October 31, 2002 and a specific set of growth rates from SCAG for population, industry, and motor vehicle activ ity. Growth projections from SCAG were replaced for certain categories where more specific information is available to improve emission forecasts. For example, Ca lifornia Energy Commission’s (CEC) energy demand forecasts for natural gas and petroleu m refineries are used to forecast the emissions of those source categories. Ru les adopted after October 31, 2002 are treated as control measures for emission reduction accounting purposes. The impact of New Source Review and emissions budgeted for seve ral District programs are addressed in the Controlled Emission Data section. Due to the adoption of the Regional Clean Air Incentive Market (RECLAIM) program in Oct ober 1993, emissions ar e divided into two categories, RECLAIM and non- RECLAIM. Future emissions from RECLAIM sources are estimated based on their allocations spec ified by District Rule 2002 as well as the trading activity as of 2001. The met hodology used to forecast emissions for nonRECLAIM sources is described in the following sections. Ba seline emissions for future years are obtained using the following equation: (F.Y.) i = (B.Y.) i (C.F.) i (G.F.) i where (F.Y.) i is the forecast emissions of an air pollutant in the South Coast Air Basin for a future year. (B.Y.) i refers to the base year emissions of the air pollutant (i.e., 1997). The control factor, (C.F.) i , is an indicator of the level of control imposed on a specific source category as a result of adopted state and local air quality regulations. (G.F.) i is a growth factor determined fo r different categories of industry and socioeconomic data.

Control Factors
Air pollution regulations adopted or amended by the District and CARB prior to October 31, 2002 with compliance dates after 1997 are liste d in Tables 2-1 and 1-2, respectively. The impact of these rules is included in the baseline emission forecasts by means of control factors. Control factors were de veloped in reference to 1997 and applied to source categories and/or specific industries a ffected by the adopted rules/amendments. For industry, the standard i ndustrial codes (SIC) system is used, and for equipment, EPA’s SCC system is used. A control factor (C.F.) i is calculated by the following equation for an individual source category:

(C.F.) i = 1 - Control EfficiencyAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-4 Control efficiency is mostly based on estim ates projected during rulemaking. Control factors represent the remaining emissions afte r a rule or regulation is implemented after 1997. Table 2-2 lists control factors for the years 2000 and 2010 for District rules with post-1997 compliance dates.

Growth Factors
Growth factors applied to each emission i nventory source categor y were derived from several surrogates, including industry output growth, empl oyment growth, demographic growth and others. These growth projecti ons were developed pr imarily by SCAG. The selection of surrogate by whic h emission growth is projecte d dependent on the type of activity. In general, manufacturing sectors and solvent groups use output growth as a surrogate. Output growth is the product of projected employment and productivity. For industry with finish products employment grow th appears to be a better indicator than output growth, such as agricultural sector, c onstruction business, et c. Certain emission sources use demographic data as surrogate, such as architectural coatings and landfills. In some cases modifications to the trad itional forecasting methodology are warranted in order to better project future emissions. Fo r example, ships and aircraft emissions are provided via special studies. An i nventory study was c onducted by Energy and Environmental Analysis to develop the 1997 aircraft emi ssions. The marine vessels emissions inventory was c onducted in 1999 by Arcadis, Ge raghty and Miller to update the 1997, 2000, 2010 and 2020 baselin e emissions. Table 2-3 lists the types of growth surrogates used for the inventory sour ce categories in the 2003 AQMP.Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-5 Table 2-1 Rules and Regulations Adopted/Amended by SCAQMD

between September 30, 1996 and October 31, 2002 *

Rule Number Title Adoption/ Amendment Date 403 Fugitive Dust 12/98 431.1 Sulfur Content of Gasoline Fuels 6/98 431.2 Sulfur Content of Liquid Fuels 9/00 442 Usage of Solvents 12/00 461 Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing 6/01 462 Organic Liquid Loading 5/99 1102 Dry Cleaners Using Solvents Other Than Perc 11/00 1104 Wood Flat Stock Coating Operations 8/99 1107 Coating of Metal Parts and Products 11/01 1110.1 Stationary Internal Combustion Engines 11/97 1110.2 Gaseous- and Liquid-Fueled Internal Combustion 11/97 1113 Architectural Coatings 7/01 1121 Residential Natural Gas-Fired Water Heaters 12/99 1122 Solvent Degreasers 7/01 1124 Aerospace Assembly and Component Mfg. Op. 9/01 1130 Graphic Arts 10/99 1130.1 Screen Printing Operations 12/96 1131 Food Product Manufacturing and Processing 9/00 1132 High Emitting Spray Booth Facilities 1/01 1136 Wood Products Coatings 6/96
1137 PM 10 Emissions from Woodworking Op. 2/02 1138 Restaurant Operations 11/97 1145 Plastic, Rubber and Glass Coatings 2/97 1146 Non-Residential Boilers, Steam Generator, PH 11/00 1146.2 Large Water Heaters and Small Boilers 1/98 1158 Storage, Handling, Transport of Petroleum Coke 6/99 1162 Polyester Resin Operations 11/01 1168 Adhesive and Sealant Applications 7/02 1171 Solvent Cleaning Operations 8/02 1176 Sumps and Wastewater Separators 9/96 1178 Storage Tanks at Petroleum Facilities 12/01 1186 Paved and Unpaved Roads and Livestock Op. 9/99 1189 Hydrogen Plant Process Vents 1/00 2202 On Road MV Mitigation 10/98 * Only the latest rule amendment dates with emission reductions are listed.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-6 Table 2-2 Control Factors by District Rule s with Post-1997 Compliance Dates *

RULE 2000 2010

Number Rule Name VOC NOx SOx PM VOC N Ox SOx PM

431.1 Sulfur Content of Gasoline Fuels - - 0.93 - - - 0.93 - 431.2 Sulfur Content of Liquid fuels - - - - - - 0.08 0.90 442 Usage of Solvents - - - - 0.30 - - - 0.99 461 Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing 0.89 - - - 0.36 - - - 462 Organic Liquid Loading 0.88 - - - 0.88 - - - 1102 Dry Cleaners Using Solvents Other Than Perc - - - - 0.17 - - - 1104 Wood Flat Stock Coating Operations 0.83 - - - 0. 83 - - - 1107 Coating of Metal Parts and Products 0.93 - - - 0.93 - - - 1110.1&Stationary Internal Combustion Engines - 0.85 - - - 0.24 - - 1110,2 1113 Architectural Coatings 0.95 - - - 0.41 1121 Residential Natural Gas-Fire Water Heaters - - - - - 0.43 - - 1122 Solvent Degreasers 0.24 - - - 0.12 - - - 1124 Aerospace Assembly and Component 0.95 - - - 0.89 - - - 1130 Graphic Arts 0.86 - - - 0.86 - - - 0.94 0.94 1130.1 Screen Printing Operations - - - - 0.90 - - - 0.99 1131 Food Product Manufacturing and Processing - - - - 0.15 - - - 1132 High Emitting Spray Booth Facilities - - - - 0.44 - - - 1.00 1136 Wood Products Coatings 0.71 - - - 0.24 - - - 1137 PM10 Reductions from Woodworking Op. - - - - - - - 0.94 1138 Restaurant Operations 0.85 - - 0.95 0.85 - - 0.95 1145 Plastic,Rubber and Glass Coatings 0.60 - - - 0.60 - - - 1146 Non-Residential Boilers, Steam Generator - - - - - 0.81 - - 1146.2 Large Water Heaters and Small Boilers - 0.97 - - - 0.33 - - 1158 Storage,Handling,Transport of Petroleum Coke - - - 0.54 - - - 0.21 1162 Polyester Resin Operations - - - - 0.24 - - - 0.77 1168 Adhesive and Sealant Applications 1.14 - - - 0.33 - - - 1171 Solvent Cleaning Operations ** 0.58 - - - 0.12 - - - 1176 Sumps and Wastewater Separators 0.34 - - - 0.34 - - - 1178 Storage Tanks at Petroleum Facilities - - - - 0.44 - - - 1186 Paved and Unpaved Roads and Livestock Op. - - - 0.87 - - - 0.67 0.99 0.93 1189 Hydrogen Plant Process Vents - - - - 0.20 - - - 2202 On-Road MV Mitigation - - - - 0.99 0.99 0.99 0.99

_____________________________________________________________________________________________ * List only rules have emission impact after 1997. ** Tier II controls are subject to technology assessment in 2005.Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-7 Table 2-3 Growth Surrogates by Source Category

Group 1: Source Categories Using Industry Output as Growth Factors

Area Sources
Source Description Parameter Baking – Commercial Manufacturing-Food Chemical Processes - Fabrication/Manufacturing Manufacturing-Rubber

Degreasing Manufacturing-Total Metal Processes - Secondary Product Manufacturing-Metal Mineral Processes - Non-Asphalt Manufacturing-Stone, Clay Mobile Equipment – Refrigeration Manufacturing-Food Solvent Use - Adhesive & Seal Manufacturing-Total Solvent Use - Industrial-Misc. Manufacturing-Total Solvent Use - Industrial-Fabric Manufacturing-Apparel Solvent Use - Industrial-Metal Furn Manufacturing-Furniture Solvent Use - Industrial-Paper Manufacturing-Paper Solvent Use - Industrial-Marine Manufacturing-Transportation Solvent Use - Printing & Publish Manufacturing-Print Wine Making - Wine & Brandy Manufacturing-Food Wood And Paper - Processing Loss Manufacturing-Furniture

Point Source Industries
SIC Source Description 10-14 Mining 20-38 Manufacturing

40 Railroad Transportation 43 U.S. Postal Service 46 Pipeline, Except Natural Gas 48 CommunicationsAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-8 Table 2-3 (continued)

Group 2: Source Categories Using Employment Data As Growth Factors

Area Sources
Source Description Parameter (Employment) Agricultural Processes – Agricultural Agriculture-Total Employment Cooking – Commercial Manufacturing-Total Employment Const. & Demolition - Non-Govern ment Construction Employment Const. & Demolition – Government Government Employment Farming Operations – Agricultural Agriculture-Total Employment Fuel Combustion – Agricultural Agriculture-Total Employment Fuel Combustion – Commercial Services-Total Employment Fuel Combustion –Industrial Manufacturing-Total Employment Industrial Equipment - Light Duty Construction Employment Mineral Processes - Surface Blasting Total Employment Non-Farm Equipment – Heavy Duty Construction Employment Other – Unspecified Total Employment Pesticide Appli/Use – Agriculture-Synthetic Agriculture-Total Employment Pesticide Appli/Use - Non-Agricultural Total-Co Employment Solvent Use – Commercial Services-Automobile Employment Solvent Use - Dry Cleaning Services-Professional Employment Solvent Use - Asphalt Paving/Other Construction Employment Waste Burning – Range Management Agriculture-Total Employment

Point Source Industries
SIC Source Description 1-9 Agriculture 15-17 Construction 39 Miscellaneous Manufacturing 41 Local & Interurban Transit 42 Trucking & Warehousing 44 Water Transportation 45 Air Transportation 47 Transportation Services 49 Gas & Sanitary 50-51 Wholesale Trade 52-59 Retail Trade 60-67 Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 70-89 Services 91-97 Public Administration

Table 2-3Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-9 (continued)

Group 3: Source Categories Using SCAG’s Demographic Data as Growth Factors

Area Source
Source Description Parameter Industrial Equipment - Light Duty Population-SCAG Pesticide Applications – C onsumer Product Population-SCAG Solvent Use – Architectural Housing Unit-SCAG Solvent Use - Consumer Product Population-SCAG Unplanned Fires - Structural Fire Housing Unit-SCAGUtility Equipment - Lawn & Garden (NonCommercial) Housing Unit-SCAG

Waste Disposal – Landfills Population-SCAG * *Wasterecycling programs incorporated.

Group 4: Source Categories Using VMT as Growth Factors

Area source
Source Description Parameter
On-Road VMT-SCAG Paved Road Collector VMT-Collector Paved Road Local Street VMT-LocalAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-10 Table 2-3 (continued)

Group 5: Others

Area Source
Source Description Parameter Note Commercial Boat Activity Forecast (1) Fuel Combustion – Petroleum Product Energy Forecast (2) Gas Distribution – Transmission Natural Gas Forecast (2) Gasoline Dispensing – Tanks/Vehicle Refueling Fuel Consumption (3) Mineral Processes – Petroleum Related Energy Forecast (2) Windblown Dust No Growth (4) Oil & Gas Extraction No Growth (2) Oil Production No Growth (2) Paved Road – Freeway/Major Arterial Road Miles (5) Pesticide Appli/Use - Ag-Non-Synthetic No Growth (6) Petroleum Related Source – Petroleum Energy Forecast (2) Unpaved Road Dust – Entrained Road No Growth (4) Unplanned Fires – Automobile Fire/Wildfires No Growth (4) Waste Burning – Forest Mgmt Forest Management (7) Waste Disposal – Solvent No Growth (4) Non-RECLAIM Power Plants CEC (8) Locomotive Activity (9)

Comments: (1) Arcadis, Geraghty and Miller (1999) (2) CEC’s 1999 Fuels Report (3) CARB EMFAC2002 Burden Model Fuel Consumption Estimates (4) Revised Inventory Methodology by District (5) Caltrans And CARB Data (6) CARB’s Data - No Growth Since 1982 (7) Angeles National Forest Office (8) CEC’s Forecast, 2001 (9) CARB’s Survey DataChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-11 The demographic forecasts from the y ear 1997 to the years 2010, and 2020 for population, housing, employment, and motor vehicle activity are shown in Table 2-4. Table 2-5 exhibits the relative distribution of population by county in the Basin for the years 1987, 1990, 1997, 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2025. By 2010 the population in Los Angeles county is projected to increase by 10% from 1997 levels, compared with increases for Orange (17%), San Bernardino (32%), and Riverside (46%) counties.
Growth factors for specified ranges of SIC were projected by SCAG (2001), and are based on predictions of growth for different industrial sectors per county. SCAG has provided growth factors for the year s 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030. The growth factors for other years are interpol ated between these year s. Tables 2-6 and 2-7 list growth factors for 2010 and 2020 fo r Los Angeles County, Orange County, Riverside County and San Be rnardino County in SCAB.

Table 2-4

Baseline Socioeconomic Foreca sts Used in the 2003 AQMP

Category 1997 2010 (% Growth) 2020 (% Growth) Population (Millions) 14.3 16.5 (+15) 18.2 (+27)

Housing Units (Millions) 4.6 5.3 (+15) 5.9 (+18)

Total Employment (Millions) 6.3 7.8 (+24) 8.5 (+35)

Daily VMT (Millions) 296.8 387.4 (+31) 454.7 (+53)

______________________________________________________________________________________Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-12 Table 2-5 Population Distribution by County in SCAB (in Thousands)

Year Los Angeles Orange Riverside San Bernardino Basin Total

1987 8,250 2,197 627 934 12,008

1990 8,612 2,411 864 1,108 12,995

1997 9,207 2,701 1,093 1,252 14,252

2000 9,412 2,863 1,202 1,348 14,826

2010 10,124 3,168 1,594 1,647 16,533

2020 10,942 3,343 1,997 1,924 18,206

2025 11,428 3,415 2,237 2,089 19,169Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-13 Table 2-6 SIC Code Growth Factors by County for the Year 2010 SIC Sector SIC Code Los Angeles Orang

e Riverside San Bernardino

Agriculture 1-9 0.868 0.986 1.019 0.703 Mining 10-12,14 0.910 0.680 1.200 0.260 Oil & Gas Extr. 13 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Construction 15-17 1.354 1.436 2.575 1.602 Food/Tobacco 20 1.090 1.290 1.470 1.500 Textile Mill 22 1.430 1.380 1.670 1.660 Apparel/Other Text. 23 1.390 1.650 1.510 1.450 Lumber/Wood 24 0.890 1.210 1.360 1.500 Furniture/Fixtures 25 0.950 1.150 1.520 1.780 Paper 26 1.270 1.640 1.940 1.510 Printing 27 1.030 1.630 1.710 2.750 Chemicals 28 1.280 1.480 1.630 1.880 Petroleum Products 29 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Rubber & Plastic 30 1.390 2.130 1.900 2.310 Leather 31 0.630 0.640 0.860 0.660 Stone,Clay & Glass 32 1.200 1.110 1.490 1.210 Primary Metals 33 1.730 1.390 1.760 1.830 Fabricated Metals 34 1.030 1.420 1.960 1.900 Machinery 35 2.910 3.840 5.230 7.110 Electronic Equip. 36 2.430 2.510 4.660 4.120 Trans. Equip. 37 1.090 1.270 1.850 1.470 Instruments 38 1.440 2.050 3.620 2.600 Misc. Mfg. 39 0.902 1.130 1.434 1.477 Railroads 40 1.530 1.970 1.320 1.550 Local Transits 41 1.049 1.441 1.167 1.182 Trucking 42 1.436 1.536 1.970 1.815 Water Transport 44 1.083 1.111 0.000 0.000 Air Transport 45 1.100 1.797 2.000 1.243 Pipelines Trans. 46 1.140 1.360 0.000 1.350 Travel Services 47 1.754 1.925 0.857 1.000 Communications 48 1.070 1.830 1.850 2.400 Utilities 49 1.293 1.579 4.200 2.083 Wholesales 50-51 1.034 1.413 1.669 1.648 Retails 52-59 1.023 1.404 1.863 1.531 Finance 60-62,67 0.923 1.569 1.780 1.557 Insurance 63-64 1.030 1.656 1.636 1.417 Real Estate 65,67 1.263 1.529 1.543 1.441 Hotels 70 1.163 1.350 1.182 1.387 Personal Services 72 1.282 1.667 1.920 1.590 Business Services 73 1.549 1.477 2.559 2.093 Auto Repairs 75-76 1.025 1.758 2.289 1.843 Motion Pictures 78 1.164 1.500 1.636 1.133 Amusements 79 1.112 1.554 1.631 1.286 Health Services 80 1.091 1.151 2.183 1.791 Legal Services 81 1.245 1.807 1.923 1.476 Educational Services 82 1.146 1.321 2.300 1.600 Non-Profit Org. 83, 84,86 1.304 1.829 2.188 1.745 Professional Services 87,89 1.250 1.443 1.923 1.722 Government 91-97 1.138 1.205 1.563 1.390

Note: SCAG projections relative to 1997 base year.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-14 Table 2-7 SIC Code Growth Factors by County for the Year 2020 SIC Sector SIC Code Los Angeles Orang

e Riverside San Bernardino

Agriculture 1-9 0.706 0.838 1.048 0.676 Mining 10-12,14 1.120 0.580 1.290 0.260 Oil & Gas Extr. 13 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Construction 15-17 1.474 1.524 3.075 1.845 Food/Tobacco 20 1.200 1.470 1.770 1.760 Textile Mill 22 1.910 1.830 2.360 2.280 Apparel/Other Text. 23 1.860 2.280 2.050 1.920 Lumber/Wood 24 0.890 1.300 1.560 1.700 Furniture/Fixtures 25 1.000 1.270 1.840 2.160 Paper 26 1.520 2.050 2.650 1.870 Printing 27 1.110 1.920 2.140 3.570 Chemicals 28 1.600 1.890 2.190 2.540 Petroleum Products 29 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 Rubber & Plastic 30 1.820 3.010 2.750 3.380 Leather 31 0.590 0.580 0.830 0.530 Stone,Clay & Glass 32 1.440 1.300 1.930 1.420 Primary Metals 33 2.600 1.950 2.680 2.760 Fabricated Metals 34 1.170 1.730 2.690 2.480 Machinery 35 7.440 10.500 15.920 22.020 Electronic Equip. 36 5.020 5.200 11.540 9.530 Trans. Equip. 37 1.260 1.520 2.510 1.820 Instruments 38 2.010 3.060 6.340 4.110 Misc. Mfg. 39 0.885 1.162 1.618 1.616 Railroads 40 2.240 2.950 1.820 2.310 Local Transits 41 1.066 1.618 1.278 1.318 Trucking 42 1.559 1.714 2.455 2.213 Water Transport 44 1.115 1.111 0.000 0.000 Air Transport 45 1.134 2.344 2.000 1.378 Pipelines Trans. 46 1.390 1.760 0.000 1.770 Travel Services 47 1.961 2.660 0.857 1.000 Communications 48 1.290 2.580 2.770 3.770 Utilities 49 1.379 1.719 5.700* 2.611 Wholesales 50-51 1.053 1.607 2.068 1.965 Retails 52-59 1.037 1.525 2.345 1.835 Finance 60-62,67 0.934 1.817 2.240 1.871 Insurance 63-64 1.031 1.988 2.000 1.667 Real Estate 65,67 1.250 1.741 1.857 1.676 Hotels 70 1.265 1.417 1.318 1.581 Personal Services 72 1.449 1.852 2.480 1.897 Business Services 73 1.858 1.714 3.456 2.702 Auto Repairs 75-76 1.055 2.000 3.022 2.314 Motion Pictures 78 1.267 1.656 2.000 1.200 Amusements 79 1.187 2.096 2.015 1.452 Health Services 80 1.155 1.199 2.869 2.235 Legal Services 81 1.392 2.211 2.462 1.762 Educational Services 82 1.239 1.464 3.067 1.927 Non-Profit Org. 83, 84,86 1.481 2.378 2.881 2.161 Professional Services 87,89 1.399 1.614 2.462 2.130 Government 91-97 1.181 1.258 1.865 1.603 Note: SCAG projections relative to 1997 base year. * Utility emissions are mostly limited by RECLAIM, not growth.Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-15 

### Future Year Emission Data

Based on the methodology described above, future year emission inventories data for the milestone years 2000, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2010, and 2020 are presented in Attachments A (average annual day) B (summer planni ng inventory) and C (winter planning inventory) of this report. These target years are selected to correspond to the years required by either the federal or state CAA to demonstrate attainment with the corresponding air quality standards. Y ears 2006, and 2010 are milestones to attain PM 10 , and ozone air quality standards, respec tively. Emissions for the year 2020 are projected to assess the need for a maintenance plan once all federal standards are attained by 2010.



### Emission Trend Analysis

Figures 2-2 through 2-5 presen t the relative contributions by source categories (i.e., point, area, on-road, and off-road) to total emission leve ls in 1997 and 2010, respectively. As seen in the figures, in 1997 (average annual day) on-road and off-road mobile sources are major contributors of CO (97%), NO x (89%), SO x (57%) and VOC (65%) emissions. Fine particulate matter (PM 10 ) is produced mostly from entrained road dust (53%). For 2010 (average annual day), mobile sources continue to be major contributors to total CO, NO x , and SO x emissions by approximately 94%, 89%, and 68%, respectively. However, contribution to VOC by mobile sources is reduced due to the CARB programs. On the contrary, area sources become major contributors to VOC emissions (from 28% in 1997 to 36% in 2010). Figures 2-6 through 2-9 illustrate the emission trends by pollutant for 1990, 1997, 2006, and 2010.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-16 FIGURE 2-2 Relative Contribution by Source Category to 1997 Emissions Inventory – Average Annual Day VOC Emissions: 1,172 Tons/Day 28% 7%

45%

20%

NOx Emissions: 1,204 Tons/Day 4%

7% 63% 26%

CO Emissions: 6,653 Tons/Day 2% 1% 76% 21%

Area On-Road Off-Road Entrained Road Dust Point SOx Emissions: 58 Tons/Day 2% 41%

8% 49%

PM10 Emissions: 279 Tons/Day 53% 29%

4%

7%

7%Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-17 SUMMER

WINTER

FIGURE 2-5 Relative Contribution by Source Category to 2010 Emissions Inventory – Planning Inventory

FIGURE 2-3 Relative Contribution by Source Category to 1997 Emissions Inventory – Planning Inventory CO Emissions: 6,461 Tons/Day 18%

78% 1%

3%

NO 2 Emissions: 1,278 Tons/Day 24%

64% 7%

5% VOC Emissions =1,222 Tons/Day 22% 42%

8% 28%

NOx Emissions = 1,165 Tons/Day 27%

62% 7%

4%

Off-Road Point Area On- R oadAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-18 FIGURE 2-4 Relative Contribution by Source Category to 2010 Emissions Inventory –Average Annual Day VOC Emissions: 630 Tons/Day 36% 11%

34% 19%

NOx Emissions: 780 Tons/Day 5%

6% 56% 33%

CO Emissions: 3,359 Tons/Day 5%

1%

61% 33%

SOx Emissions: 60 Tons/Day 2%

30%

4% 64%

PM10 Emissions: 301 Tons/Day 49% 33%

5%

6%

7%

Area On-Road Off-Road Entrained Road Dust PointChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-19 SUMMER

WINTER

FIGURE 2-5 Relative Contribution by Source Category to 2010 Emissions Inventory – Planning Inventory

FIGURE 2-5 Relative Contribution by Source Category to 2010 Emissions Inventory – Planning Inventory CO Emissions: 3,315 Tons/Day 27% 61%

2% 10%

NO 2 Emissions: 820 Tons/Day 30%

57% 6%

7% VOC Emissions: 659 Tons/Day 21% 32%

13% 34%

NOx Emissions: 764 Tons/Day 35% 54%

7% 4%

Area On-Road Off-Road PointAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-20 FIGURE 2-6A VOC Emission Trend by Source Ca tegory - Average Annual Day

FIGURE 2-6B VOC Emission Trend by Source Category - Summer Planning 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000

1990 1997 2006 2010

Point Area On-Road Off-Road 1780

1,172

630 698Tons/Day

0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400

1990 1997 2006 2010

Point Area On-Road Off-Road 1,869

1,222

730 659Tons/DayChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-21 FIGURE 2-7A NO x Emission Trend by Source Ca tegory - Average Annual Day

FIGURE 2-7B NO x Emission Trend by Source Category - Summer Planning 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

1990 1997 2006 2010 Point Area On-Road Off-Road 1,592

1,204

780 950

0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800

1990 1997 2006 2010 Point Area On-Road Off-Road 1,546

1,165

764 929Tons/DayTons/DayAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-22 FIGURE 2-8A CO Emission Trend by Source Ca tegory - Average Annual Day

FIGURE 2-8B CO Emission Trend by Source Category - Winter Planning 0 1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 9000 10500 12000

1990 1997 2006 2010 Point Area On-Road Off-Road 10,589

6,653

3,359 3,973Tons/Day

0 1500 3000 4500 6000 7500 9000 10500 12000

1990 1997 2006 2010

Point Area On-Road Off-Road 10,328

6,461

3,315 3,907Tons/DayChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-23 FIGURE 2-9 PM 10 Emission Trend by Source Ca tegory - Average Annual Day

VOC Emissions

As presented in Figure 2-6, emissions from area sources, off-road mobile sources and on-road mobile sources all show a significant decrease. Area source emissions are projected to drop from 333 tons/day in 1997 to 224 tons/day in 2010. Between 1997 and 2010, emissions from off-road mobile sources are expected to fall from 237 tons/day to 123 tons/day, while on-road emissions should fall from 519 tons/day to 212 t ons/day. Area source reductions are derived mainly from the District’s adopted rules fo r gasoline transfer and dispensing (Rule 461), architectural coatings (Rule 1113), solvent degreasing (Rule 1122), and solvent cleaning operations (Rule 1171). Off-road reductions resu lt primarily from emission controls for sparkignition marine engines; new emission standards for small and large gasoline powered engines, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) used in o ff-road equipment. Since its adoption in 1990, California’s Low Emission Vehi cle I (LEV I) program has produced significant emission reductions from on-road passenger vehicles by re lying on a systems-wide approach to achieve reductions from fuels and mobile source exhaus t and evaporative emissions. Both LEV I and LEV II, adopted in 1998, include four primary elements: (1) increasingly stringent exhaust emission standards, (2) an increasingly stringent annual fleet average standard for non-methane organic gas (NMOG), (3) banking and trading provi sions, and (4) a requirement that a specific percentage of vehicles be Zero Emission Vehi cles (ZEVs), vehicles with no emissions. Under LEV II, sport utility vehicles, pick-up trucks, and mini-vans must achieve the same emission standards as cars, beginning in 2004-2007. Other programs to reduce emissions from mobile sources include: (1) the Carl Moyer program, wh ich provides financial incentives for the early 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

1990 1997 2006 2010
Point Area On-Road Off-Road

279 339 301 293Tons/DayAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-24 introduction of clean heavy-duty engines, (2) re gulations to reduce emissions from on-road heavy-duty engines and vehicles, (3) low su lfur diesel and cleaner burning gasoline requirements, (4) smog check programs, and (5) District and CARB fleet rules.

NO x Emissions

Figure 2-7 illustrates the NOx emissions by majo r source category. NOx emissions from both off-road mobile (312 tons/day to 257 tons/day) and on-road mobile (761 tons/day to 434 tons/day) sources are projected to decr ease substantially between 1997 and 2010. The reductions largely reflect the replacement of exis ting engines and vehicles with cleaner models as rules are implemented and vehicle fleets turn over. As mentioned above, programs to reduce off-road emissions result primarily from emission controls for spark-ignition marine engines; new emission standards for small and large gaso line powered engines, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) use in off-road equipment. On ro ad emission reductions de rive from CARB’s LEV programs, low-sulfur diesel fuel and cleane r-burning gasoline requirements, regulations to reduce emissions from on-road heavy-duty engine s and vehicles, smog check requirements, and other programs.

CO Emissions

Figure 2-8 shows CO emissions over a period of time. Almost all of the CO emissions are from mobile sources. The drastic reduction between 1997 and 2010 is from on-road mobile sources (5092 tons/day to 2048 tons/day). The LEV program has been particularly effective in reducing carbon monoxide emissions from on-road vehicles.

PM10 Emissions

Figure 2-9 shows the PM 10 emission trend. About half of the emissions are from road dust. The amount of dust is projected to stay cons tant between 1997 and 2010. (147 tons/day and 147 tons/day respectively)



### Growth Impact

Despite rules and regulations adopted by SCAQMD, CARB and U. S. EPA as of October 31, 2002, the projected future emissions are still a bove the levels require d for achieving federal and state air quality standards. The main reason is that the region as a whole is projected to continue to grow in population; housing, em ployment and vehicle miles traveled (VMT).Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-25 To illustrate the impact from the growth, year 2010 no-growth emissions were estimated by removing the growth factors from the 2010 base line emissions. Table 2-8 presents the 2010 forecasted emission estimates with and without growth.

Table 2-8 Growth Impact to 2010 Annual Average Emissions in Tons Per Day

With Growth VOC NOx CO SOx PM 10 Point 72 47 48 18 14 Area 224 42 168 1 100 Road Dust 147 On-Road 212 435 2048 2 21 Off-Road 122 256 1094 39 19 Total 630 780 3358 60 301

No Growth VOC NOx CO SOx PM 10 Point 54 44 38 18 11 Area 190 37 113 1 77 Road Dust 134 On-Road 175 356 1679 2 17 Off-Road 106 222 948 33 17 Total 525 659 2778 54 256



### Mobile and Area Source Credit Programs

In 2001, the AQMD Governing Board adopted six mobile and area source pilot credit generation rules: Rule 1612.1 - Mobile S ource Credit Generation Pilot Program, Rule 1631 – Pilot Credit Generation Program for Marine Vessels; Rule 1632 – Pilot Credit Generation Program for Hotelling Operations ; Rule 1633 – Pilot Credit Generation for Truck/Trailer Refrigeration Units; Rule 1634 – Pilot Credit Generation Program for Truck Stops; and Rule 2507 – Pilot Credit Generation Program for Agricultural Pumps. NO x emission reductions generated from these pilot credit genera tion rules can be used in the RECLAIM program either directly or through the RECLAIM Reserve under the Executive Order (EO) Mitigation Fee Program for power producing facilities and in the Air Quality Investment Program (AQIP) for specific RECLAIM facilities.

All six pilot credit generation rules have been submitted to EPA for inclusion in the State Implementation Plan (SIP). The first five pilot credit generation rules, Rules 1612.1, 1631, 1632, 1633, and 2507 have been appr oved by CARB and EPA. EPA published their final approval of the five pilot credit generation rules on Febr uary 19, 2002. Rule 1634, submitted to CARB and EP A after its adoption in November 2001, is currentlyAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-26 being reviewed by EPA. As part of EPA requirements, the AQMP needs to identify these emissions explicitly. Ta ble 2-9 lists these emissions.

Federal and state approval of the first five pilot credit generation rules represents a significant milestone in market incentives programs as they are the first mobile source credit generation rules to receive federal appr oval. These rules will provide an important option to RECLAIM facilities if the demand fo r RTCs increases and will also enable AQMD to use these credits to mitigat e excess emissions from power plants.

Table 2-9

Credit Rules and Associated 1997 Annual Emissions (Tons/Day)

Rule Name Target Sources VOC NO x CO SO x PM1 0

1612. 1 Mobile Sources On-Road Heavy-HeavyDuty Trucks and Yard Hostlers 8.9 198.2 41.8 1.8 6.0

1631 Marine Vessels Commercial Boats 0.4 9.5 1.3 0.1 0.1

1632 Hotelling Operations Ship Berthing 1.7 10.7 1.5 7.9 0.7

1633 Truck/Trailer Refrigeration Transportation Refrigeration Unit 1.7 10.2 5.4 0.05 1

1634 Truck Stops Truck Idling 0.1 1.5 0.5 .004 .018

2507 Stationary Agricultural Pumps Agricultural Irrigation Pumps 0.1 1.6 0.3 .024 0.109Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-27 

### CONTROLLED EMISSIONS INVENTORIES

This section describes the methodology used to estimate the controlled and remaining emissions after the proposed control meas ures in the 2003 AQMP are implemented for the years 2006, and 2010. Emission reducti ons are derived from applying the control efficiency of a control measure to the projected baseline inventories.

In addition to the proposed control measur es, the impacts of NSR-related set aside tracking and other budgeted emissions for va rious District programs (e.g., RECLAIM, HILO) are also discussed in this section.
To project emission reductions and remaining emissions from the implementation of the proposed control measures, a mathematic al algorithm called Controlled Emissions Projection Algorithm (CEPA) is used. CEPA is developed to calculate projected remaining emissions and/or em ission reductions for specified control scenarios. CEPA is briefly discussed in this section. A mo re comprehensive and extensive discussion of CEPA is presented in Technical Report III-A of the 1991 AQMP.



### Emission Impacts of SCAQMD Programs

There are several SCAQMD regulatory programs that have specific impacts on future emissions through certain “set-aside” or ex emption provisions. As a result, special emission accounts were created for the 2003 AQMP to track these emissions. For air quality modeling purposes, th ese emissions (except RE CLAIM allocations) are distributed across the entire non-RECLAIM poi nt source inventory and the RECLAIM

Hi-Lo
In order to encourage new business locati ng to the Basin, a Clean Air Bank was established for high employment – low po lluting (HILO) companies. RECLAIM companies creating a minimum of 500 job pos itions and emitting at a rate (on a per employee basis) less than half of the AQMP 2010 goal would be exempt from NSR offset requirements. As a result, 0.25 tons/day of NO x and SO x (each) were set aside for this purpose, in the RECLAIM baseline emissions.

RECLAIM Allocation
Future year emissions for RECLAIM facilitie s were based on their initial allocation as specified in Rule 2002 as well as trading tr ansactions as of Fe bruary, 2001. Reported 1996-1997 emissions for Cycle I and Cycle II f acilities were used for the calendar year 1997. Over forty facilities joined the RE CLAIM universe in 1999 either because the facilities had grown to over 4 tons per year fo r NOx or SOx, or because they opted to expand in the future. Amendments to allo cations as a result of the change in the RECLAIM universe were incorporated into the 2003 AQMP.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-28 SIP Set Aside Accounts

Background

The 2003 AQMP includes an emissions set asid e to account for growth from new and modified sources, the Offset Budget, the potential increase from VOC emissions from the phase-out of ozone depl eting compounds (ODCs) or t oxic air contaminants, and a SIP Reserve for potential technology assessments . As shown in Table 2-10, the total 2010 emissions to account for growth and the various set-aside emissions accounts is approximately 14 tons per day of VOC, 4 tons per day of NOx , 2 tons per day of CO, 2 tons per day of SOx and 1 ton per day of PM10. Th e methodology and assumptions used to develop these set-aside accounts for the 2003 AQMP are discussed in detail below. It should be noted that emission incr eases or decreases discussed herein are in reference to the projected AQMP baseline emissions without the effect of implementation of the AQMD’s New Source Review program.

Table 2-10 Summary of Emissions Growth Set-Aside for the 2003 AQMP (Tons per Day)

VO

C NO

x CO SO

x PM1 0 New and Modified Sources 8.73 0.07 0.80 0.76 0.23 Offset Budget N/A 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 VOC Emissions from Phase-out of ODCs or Toxics 2.00 N/A N/A N/A N/A SIP Reserve (Potential Tech Assessments) 3.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Total - 2010 Emissions 13.73 3.07 1.80 1.76 1.23

Growth from New and Modified Sources
The 2003 AQMP accounts for growth from ne w and modified sources based on emissions offsets used and generate d through the AQMD’s New Source Review program. The AQMD’s Regula tion XIII – New Source Review (NSR) program is an emission reduction control strategy program as it requires new and modified sources to meet a Best Available Contro l Technology (BACT) emissions level (which is generally cleaner than a Best Available Retrofit C ontrol Technology (BARCT) emissions level, and all external offsets must be traded at a 1.2 to 1 trading ratio. In addition, the AQMD’s New Source Review program requires that all emission increases from new and modified sources be fully offset. Emissions offsets are obtained from either the open market or from the AQMD’s NSR Account . In general, any facility with a potential to emit greater than or equa l to four tons per year of VOC, NO x , SO x , or PM10Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-29 or 29 tons per year of CO must provide offsets or Em ission Reduction Credits (ERCs) for all increases of that pollutant from the open market. Emission increases from sources below these emissions thresholds or specif ic source categories that are exempt from obtaining offsets from the open market ca n obtain emission offsets from the AQMD’s NSR Account.
Overall Approach and Methodology
The following five steps were used to estimate the potentia l increase in emissions from new and modified sources by the year 2010:
Step 1: Estimate annual average net demand from open market Step 2: Calculate 2010 Net Demand for Open Market Step 3: Estimate annual average net demand from AQMD’s NSR Account Step 4: Calculate 2010 Net Demand for AQMD’s NSR Account Step 5: Total 2010 Net Demand fro m New and Modified Sources

In general, the annual average net dema nd from the open market and the AQMD’s NSR Account are estimated based on historical records. Based on the annual average net demand, the 2010 net demand from the open ma rket and the AQMD’s NSR Account are calculated. The sum of the 2010 net de mand from the open market and the AQMD’s NSR Account represents the potential 2010 emissions from new or modified sources. The net demand simply represents the emission in creases in the future years to be offset by reductions previously banked (i.e., prior to the AQMP base year). Each of these steps are discussed in more detail below.

Step 1: Estimating Annual Average Net Demand from Open Market
To account for emissions growth from sources that are accessing the open market, the AQMD staff assessed the net annual averag e demand of ERCs from the open market between 1997 and 2001. The net annual av erage demand for ERCs from the open market is based on the difference between the annual average demand and supply of ERCs.

Net Annual Average Demand for ERCs = A nnual Average Demand of ERCs – Annual Average Supply of ERCs

As shown in Table 2-11 below, the net a nnual average demand for ERCs in the open market ranges from 0.01 to .56 tons pe r day, depending on the pollutant.

Table 2-11 Annual Average Net Demand for ERCs in the Open Market (Tons per Day)Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-30 VOC NOx CO SOx PM1 0 Annual Average Demand 1 0.59 0.01 0.12 0.01 0.04

Annual Average Supply 2 0.03 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.01

Net Annual Average Demand 0.56 0.01 0.11 0.01 0.03

1 Annual average use of ERCs from the open market. Based on 1998-2001 for CO, PM10, SOx, and NOx, and 2000-2001 for VOC. Average use excl udes electric generating facilities and non-Regulation XIII offsetting uses. Annual average use adjusted by 80 percent to reflect actual emissions.
2 Annual average supply is based on ERCs issued from 1998 to 2002. Annual average use is divided by 1.2 to account for the trading ratio applied to all external offsets and multiplie d by 80 percent to reflect actual emissions.

Annual Average Demand for ERCs in the Open Market
The annual average demand for the five crite ria pollutants are presented in Table 2-11 above. The annual average demand is ba sed on ERCs used from 1998 through 2001 for CO, PM10, SOx and NOx, and based on E RCs used from 2000 and 2001 for VOC (no VOC ERC use data in 1998 and 1999). In add ition, the annual aver age use is based on ERCs use from non-electric generating facilitie s, and excludes those ERCs that were used for CEQA mitigation, or ders of abatements, interdistrict transfers, non-VOC removal, Rule 2202, and varian ces. The annual demand, whic h is based on the facilities’ permitted emissions level is adju sted to reflect the actual amount of emissions that are emitted into the air. It is a ssumed that actual emissions re present 80 percent of permitted emissions. This ratio of permitted to actual emissions is currently being used Report on the Effectiveness of Regulation XIII – New Source Review (AQMD, 1988).
Annual Average Supply for ERCs in the Open Market
The annual average supply for the five crite ria pollutants are presented in Table 2-11 above. The annual average supply is based on ERCs i ssued from 1998 through 2002. Under Regulation XIII, sources that are using external offsets, or ERCs not generated within their facility must apply a trading ratio of 1.2 to 1. To more accurately reflect the actual supply of ERCs that are needed to offset emission incr eases, the trading ratio was backed out of the annual ERC supply by dividing the annual i ssuance of ERCs by 1.2. In addition, similar to the ERCs used, the amount of ERCs issued was adjusted by 80 percent to reflect actual emissions that are o ffset as compared to the permitted emissions level.

Step 2: Calculate 2010 Net Demand for Open Market
For the purpose of estimating the emissions growth from newly permitted sources in the 2003 AQMP, it is assumed that each year, be ginning in 2003, there is an incrementalChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-31 emissions increase equivalent to the annua l average net demand for ERCs in the open market. The maximum amount of growth that ca n be realized in future years is assumed to be capped by the current available supply of ERCs in the open market. The 2010 net demand for the open market represents the am ount of emissions growth at a BACT level that is expected to occur by 2010. This estimate was based on the annual average net demand for each pollutant. Each year begi nning in 2003, the annual average net demand is cumulatively added over the next seven years to 2010. Table 2-12 summarizes the annual average net demand for offsets by the year 2010 from the open market.

Table 2-12 2010 Net Demand for ERCs in the Open Market (Tons per Day)

VOC NOx CO SOx PM1 0 2010 Net Annual Average Demand 3.90 0.07 0.80 0.06 0.23

1 2010 Net Annual Average Demand is based on the cumulative net average demand from 2003 to 2010.
Step 3: Estimating Annual Average Net Demand from AQMD’s NSR Account
Sources accessing the AQMD’s NSR Account in clude those sources that are exempt from obtaining offsets from the open market. To estimate emissions growth from these sources, the net annual average amount of offsets being used and generated was estimated. The net annual average amount of offsets is based on the difference between the annual average demand and supply of offsets from the AQMD’s NSR Account. Annual average demand and supply of offsets are averaged over a four-year period, from July 1997 to August 1998, from July 1998 to August 1999, from July 1999 to August 2000, and from July 2000 to August 2001. A nnual demand and supply of offsets from the AQMD’s NSR Account is based on data reported in the AQMD’s Annual Effectiveness Reports on Regulation XIII.
The net annual average demand and supply is the difference between the annual average demand minus the annual average supply of offsets from the AQMD’s NSR Account. As shown in Table 2-13, the net annual average demand and supply from the AQMD’s NSR Account is positive for VOC and CO, a nd negative for NOx and PM10. Values that are negative represent those pollutants wh ere the annual average supply of offsets is greater than the annual average demand of o ffsets. For SOx, on average the amount of credits used and generated is even.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-32 Table 2-13 Annual Average Net Demand for Offs ets in the AQMD’s NSR Account 1 (Tons per Day)

VOC NOx CO SOx PM1 0 Annual Average Demand 1 3.79 0.84 0.83 0.04 0.18

Annual Average Supply 2 3.10 1.16 0.73 0.04 0.72

Net Demand and Supply from AQMD’s NSR Account 0.69 -0.32 0.10 0.00 -0.54

1 Based on annual use of offsets from the AQMD’s NSR A ccount, which includes offsets used sources below

emissions thresholds, priority reserve, and Rule 1304 offset exemptions. Average annual use based on data from the 1997/1998, 1998/1999, 1999/2000/ and 2000/2001 Annual Effectiveness Report on Regulation XIII – New Source Review. 2 Based on annual supply of offsets into the AQMD’s NSR Account, which includes offsets generated from

orphan shutdowns, surplus reduction credits, BACT and other discount of ERCs, and positive balance adjustments. Average annual use based on data fro m the Annual Effectiveness Report on Regulation XIII – New Source Review, for the reporting periods from July 1997 to August 1998, from July 1998 to August 1999, from July 1999 to August 2000, and from July 2000 to August 2001.

Annual Average Demand and Supply for ERCs from the AQMD’s NSR Account

Table 2-13 above summarizes the annual aver age demand and supply of offsets from the AQMD’s NSR Account, based on accounting to sa tisfy equivalency with the state new source review requirements. The annual de mand is based on those sources that are eligible to use offsets from the AQMD’s NSR Account or are exempt from providing offsets from the open market, of which include facilities with a potential to emit less than four tons per year of VOC, NO x , SO x , or PM10 or 29 tons pe r year of CO annual emissions; sources eligible for the priority reserve; and sources exempt from providing offsets pursuant to Rule 1304. The annual demand, which is based on the facilities’ permitted emissions level is adju sted to reflect the actual amount of emissions that are emitted into the air. It is a ssumed that actual emissions re present 40 percent of permitted emissions. In an analysis conducted by th e AQMD staff in 1998 for sources less than four tons per year, actual emissions were less than 40 percent of permitted emissions. (AQMD, 1988). It should be noted, however, as a conservative estimate the Annual Report on the Effectiveness for Regulation X III assumes that actual emissions represent 80 percent of permitted emissions. The annual supply is based on offs ets that go into the AQMD’s NSR Account such as credits ge nerated from orphan shutdowns; surplus reduction credits; BACT and ot her discount of ERCs; and positive balance adjustments by way of ERCs.Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-33 Step 4: Calculate 2010 Net Demand for AQMD’s NSR Account
For the purpose of estimating the emissions growth from newly permitted sources in the 2003 AQMP, it is assumed that each year, be ginning in 2003, there is an incremental emissions increase equivalent to the annua l average net demand for offsets in the AQMD’s NSR Account. The maximum amount of gr owth that can be realized in future years is assumed to be capped by the current available supply of offsets in the AQMD’s NSR Account. The 2010 net demand for the open market represents the amount of emissions growth at a BACT level that is expected to occur by 2010. This estimate was based on the annual average net demand for e ach pollutant. For NOx and PM10, where the net annual average demand for offsets was negative, indicating that the annual average supply of offsets is greater than th e use, it assumed that there is no additional emissions growth in 2010 from sources acce ssing the AQMD’s NSR Account. Similarly for CO, as the net annual aver age demand for offsets was zero. For VOC and SOx, each year beginning in 2003, the annual average net demand is cumulatively added over the next seven years to 2010. Table 2-14 su mmarizes the annual average net demand for offsets by the year 2010 from the AQMD’s NSR Ac count for the five criteria pollutants.

Table 2-14 2010 Net Demand for ERCs in the AQMD’s NSR Account (Tons per Day)

VOC NOx CO SOx PM1 0 2010 Net Annual Average Demand 4.83 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.00

2 2010 Net Annual Average Demand is based on the cumulative net average demand from 2003 to 2010
Step 5: Total 2010 Net Demand from New and Modified Sources
The total 2010 emissions growth from new and modified sources is equivalent to the sum of the 2010 net annual average demand fo r the open market and the 2010 net annual average demand for the AQMD’s NSR Account . Table 2-15 summarizes the total 2010 emissions growth new and modified sources.

Table 2-15 Total 2010 Net Demand from New and Modified Sources (Tons per Day)

VOC NOx CO SOx PM1 0 2010 Net Annual Average Demand 8.73 0.07 0.80 0.76 0.23

3 2010 Net Annual Average Demand is based on the sum of the 2010 net demand from the open market and the AQMD’s NSR Account.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-34 NSR Reduction Benefit
Since the AQMP future year baseline inventories already include emissions growth based on SCAG projections in the absence of NSR constraints, addi ng additional related emissions growth to the baseline inventorie s would be overstating the potential growth. Therefore, reconciliation of growth proj ections between exis ting sources and new sources are necessary. Following a sim ilar methodology employed in the 1997 AQMP, emission reductions attributable to the NSR pr ogram due to installation of BACT rather than BARCT were estimated. For VOC and SOx sources, it is assu med that BACT and BARCT are the same. For NOx , CO, and PM10, it is assumed that BACT represents approximately 60 percent of BARCT emissions.

Table 2-16 Estimated Emission Reduction Benefit from Installation of BACT for New and Modified Sources (Tons per Day)

VOC
1 NOx 2 CO 2 SOx 1 PM10
2
Estimated New and Modified Sources (2010) 8.73 0.07 0.80 0.76 0.23

Emission Reduction Benefit 8.73 0.12 1.3 0.76 0.38

1 Assumed that BACT = BARCT for VOC and SOx sources.
2 Assumed that BACT = 60% of BARCT.

Offset Budget
Rule 1309.2 – Offset Budget crea tes an emissions bank to provide offsets to sources that otherwise cannot obtain offsets. Strict elig ibility requirements are placed on the offset budget. Only those sources which are not exempt from offsets under Rule 1304 – Exemptions; and not eligible for offsets unde r Rule 1309.1 – Priority Reserve; can apply for offset budget credits. Other eligibility criteria include a facility having all sources at or below BARCT and conducting a good faith e ffort to obtain open market offsets. Finally, a non-refundable mitigation fee is re quired for each pound of credits obtained. The Offset Budget will be funded by expired permit source shutdown credits, emissions reductions from projects funded by mitigati on fees collected, and other methods approved by the Executive Officer, CARB and U.S. EPA. The initial funding of the Offset Budget will be from expired permit source shutdown credits for the years 2000 through 2002.Chapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-35 The 2003 AQMP includes a set aside account of one ton per day for each criteria pollutant for the Offset Budget. This line item is to account for emissions that may not be included in the AQMP baseline inventories. As such, the set as ide account should not be viewed as the cap for the Offset Budget. Furthermore, AQMP inventories are based on actual emissions not potential to emit or offsets needed under New Source Review. The Offset Budget is designed to be a source of offsets, but used as a “bank of last resort.” It ensures the availa bility of offsets, but encourages sources to seek offsets from the open market first.

VOC Emissions from Phase-Out ODCs and Toxics

The 1997 AQMP included an emissions set-asid e for potential VOC emissions increases from the phase-out of ozone depleting compounds (ODCs). The 1997 AQMP set aside approximately 10 tons per day of VOC emi ssions due to the pot ential conversion of ODCs to VOC containing materi als. Based on historical use, the 2003 AQMP modifies the amount of the set aside to 2 tons per da y of VOC emissions for the potential increase in VOC emissions from the conversion of ODCs to VOC containing materials and the potential conversion of toxic material s to VOC containing materials.

SIP Reserve for Potential Technology Assessments
To achieve air quality goals, adopted and am ended rules and regula tions that rely on technology forcing emission limits are ofte n needed. Technology forcing emission limits are designed to provide ample time fo r the development and implementation of new air pollution technologies. In the event, however, that the new air pollution control technology does not come to fruition by the implementation date of the adopted or amended rule there may be a need to delay or relax the future em ission limits. The SIP Reserve is designed to ensure that dela ying or relaxing future emission limits for technology forcing rules will not in terfere with the Basin’s attainment demonstration. In addition, the SIP Reserve allows the AQMD to adopt and amend rules with technology forcing limits while maintaining SIP approvability if a rule relaxation or delay is needed.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-36 Summary
For the purpose of attainment demonstration and rate of progress, additional emissions are included in the controlled emissions after implementation of proposed control measures. These emissions are estimated based on the difference between emission estimates presented in Tables 2-10 and 2- 16. Table 2-17 summarizes the emissions added to controlled emissions for attainment demonstration.

Table 2-17 Emissions Added to Controlled Emissi ons for Attainment Demonstration (Tons per Day)

VOC NOx CO SOx PM10 Total - 2010 Emissions (Table 2-10) 13.7 3 3.0 7 1.8 0 1.7 6 1.2 3 Emission Reduction Benefit (Table 2-16) 8.73 0.1 2 1.3 0 0.7 6 0.3 8 2010 Emissions Added to Controlled Emissions 5.00 2.9 5 0.5 0 1.0 0 0.8 5



### Proposed Control Measures

In order to assess emission reduction potentia l and remaining emissions from proposed control measures, a control factor profile needs to be developed identifying source category targeted by a measure, its contro l efficiency, and implementation schedule.

Control Efficiency/Control Factor

One factor that determines the effectiveness of a control measure is its control efficiency (CE), expressed in percentage. Control effi ciency is dependent on the specific control technologies proposed, and each control measure may have one or perhaps more if several control technology options are available. If there is only one feasible control technology in a control measure, its contro l efficiency is primarily based on an engineering evaluation of the proposed te chnology. However, if several control technologies are available to control an emi ssion source, the average control efficiency is used. If multiple control technologies ar e proposed to reduce emissions from various steps of an operation, a weight ed average control efficiency is developed to represent an overall control of the emission sources. Once the control efficiency of a control measure is determined, it is used to estimate emission reductions of the proposed measure. Control efficiencies for the proposed contro l measures are identified and discussed in detail in Appendix IV of the 2003 AQMP.

The control factor (CF) is used to estimat e remaining emissions once a proposed control measure is implemented. A control factor equal to 0 i ndicates complete emission controlChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-37 or 100 percent efficiency. A control factor equal to 1 indicates no emission control or emission unchanged. A hi gh control factor value indicates a low control efficiency. As the control efficiency goes up, the control factor value goes down and approaches 0. Thus, the equation to calculate a control factor is as follows:

CF = 1 - (CE/100)
And, the remaining emissions can be calculated as

REM = BE * CF
Where REM is Remaining Emissions , and BE is Baseline Emissions
The 2003 AQMP has many milestones for whic h emission reduction progress needs to be projected. As a result, control factors for each milestone year have to be developed. Such a control factor profile for each m easure is developed c onsidering the following factors:

• proposed adoption date,

• implementation lead time

• phase-in period, if any.

The adoption date as proposed in the 2003 AQMP is the date the District is expected to adopt the control measure as a rule. Th e implementation lead time reflects the time allowed for the emission sources to install cont rols. When a rule is implemented, it is not unusual that it may have multiple inte rim implementation dates prior to full implementation. This is because the require ments in a rule may require two or three phases to reach the final emission target (e .g., a technology-forcing regulation). Or, a rule may regulate such a large population of equipment that it is impractical to implement it all at once, and it becomes ad ministratively necessary to phase in its implementation. In either case, a c ontrol profile would indicate an initial implementation date and an ending im plementation date. The adoption and implementation schedule of the proposed contro l measures is presen ted in Chapter 7 of the 2003 AQMP.

Measure Impact Sources
Each proposed control measure describes spec ific emission sources subject to potential controls. Based on the description of thes e sources, corresponding sources as tracked in the emission inventory are identified. In general, emission sources are grouped by major source category, which can be further subcategorized in to point sources denoted by Source Classification Codes (SCC) and ar ea sources denoted by Category Emission Source (CES) Codes. To track emission reduc tions more accurately, the control factors at the SCC/CES level become necessary.Appendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-38 An SCC, an 8-digit EPA code, is used to identify emissions from a point source at the equipment level. A CES, a 5-digit CARB code , is used to describe an area source for which emissions are distributed across the region with no specific locations.
For some measures the controls target not only the type of equipment, but also the industries engaged in. In those cases, contro l factors will be deve loped by pairing SCCs and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) C odes to clearly and specifically point out the emission sources in the inventory that the measure designs to reduce. Such SCC/SIC pairs significantly enhance the ability to quantify emissions closely following the intent of a proposed control measure.
In spite of significant progress made in iden tifying emissions at the SCC or CES level, there are still instances where an SCC or CES category is not fully impacted by a control measure. As a result, an impact factor (IF) is developed as a weighing factor for such an adjustment. For example, an IF of 0.58 was used for some thinning solvent sources to account for the portion of emissions reducti ons from Rule CTS-02 (Solvent Cleaning Operations). In this case, CF is calculated as

CF = 1 - ( (CE /100) x IF )
Impact factors will accurately track the measure baseline emissions, and calculate the true reductions from the proposed control measures.



### CEPA Emission Calculations

The District uses the CEPA program to ca lculate emission projec tions for the proposed AQMP control measures. Base d on the control factor profile and projected baseline emissions, CEPA estimates emission reducti ons and remaining emissions for future years by pollutant (i.e., summer VOC and NO x ; winter CO and NO 2 ; and average annual day for VOC, NOx, CO, SO x and PM 10 ).

CEPA allows interaction of multiple contro l measures affecting a specific emission source, avoiding double counting of emission reductions from additional measures. It also provides flexibility in analyzing va rious scenarios and improves accuracy by standardizing calculation methodologies.
To run CEPA, the program requires four data input files. These input files are as follows:

1. Master Measure File - This file cont ains all the measures proposed in the AQMP. There is only one master measure file in the entire CEPA program.

2. Scenario File - This file is a listing of selected measures to characterize emission reductions, and is a subset of th e master measure file. For example, itChapter 2 Summaries of Emissions

III-2-39 can contain a group of control measures targeting mobile sources only, or a group of measures to be implemented by U.S. EPA.

3. Control Factor File - As previously disc ussed, this file shows control factor by pollutant by SCC/SIC (or CES/CES) pa irs for each control measure in a specified year.

4. Baseline Emission File - This file contains projected emission data (tons/day) for future years based on the 1997 emissions inventory. There are two types of baseline emission data available for CEPA runs. These are the average annual day emissions inventory with pollutants VOC, NO x , CO, SO x , and PM 10 ; and the planning inventory w ith pollutants VOC and NO x during summer, and CO and NO 2 during winter.
CEPA calculates the remaining emissions at the SCC/SIC level. It can generate many types of emission summary reports or electr onic files. For example, the program can provide composite control factors for on-road mobile sources in sixteen categories used in the air quality modeling analysis or com posite control factors from all the proposed control measures in the scenario file. It can also provide remaining emissions by SCC/S1C or CES/CES pairs; by major source category; or by SIC. It can present emission reductions by each control measur e in the absence of other competing measures; or reductions for each cont rol measure following a pre-determined implementation sequence. The result of CEPA runs will be presen ted in Appendix V of the 2003 AQMP.



### CARB Emission Data Reports System

As mentioned in Chapter 1, the entire emissions inventories are compiled and maintained by CARB in its st atewide emission related information databases named California Emission Inventor y Development and Reporting System (CEIDARS), and California Emission Forecasti ng and Planning Inve ntory System (CEFIS). In both systems, emissions are traced by CA RB’s new coding met hod called Emission Inventory Codes (EIC code). The EIC code is a 14-digit number arranged into four fields: major category, source category, materials description and emission subcategory. For example, EIC 210- 200-3300-0000 is for dr y cleaning using perchloroethylene material. 210 indicates this source is unde r laundering group. 200 means the source category is dry cleani ng. 3300 refers to the material as perchloroethylene. 0000 imp lies, as current, there is no sub-category under this particular source. EIC separates emi ssion sources into four major divisions: stationary, area-wide, non-anthropogenic and m obile source. This new coding system allows flexibility in how sources are selected, sorted and grouped to fit users’ needs. The other advantage of this new coding system is that EIC links area sources andAppendix III Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-2-40 point sources together to allow a computer program to automatically reconcile point and area source emissions. In this 2003 AQMP, all the emission summary reports are based on CARB’s new EIC codes. Beca use only the anthropogenic sources are included in this document, all summary reports in appendices include three major divisions. They are stationary, area-wide, and mobile source. This is the first time the District is using this new coding syst em for emission data reports in the AQMP.

## REFERENCESReferences

III-R-1 

### REFERENCES

ARB, 2002a. EMFAC2002 Release.

ARB, 2002a. California Air Pollution Control Laws.

ARB, 1996c. Booz Allen & Ha milton Inc., 1993. Emissions From Locomotives in the Modeling Region for the South Coast Air Quality Management District.
Arcadis Geraghty & Miller, 1999. Marine Vessel Emissions Inventory- Update to 1996 Report : Marine Vessel Emissions Inventory and Control Strategies
Energy and Environmental Analysis, In c., 1999 South Coast Aircraft Emission Inventory: Baseline for 1997
EPA, 1990. AIRS Facility Subsystem Source Classification Codes and Emission Factor Listing for Criteria Air Pollutants.

AVES, 2000. 1997 Gridded Ammonia Emission Inventory Update for the South Coast Air Basin
SCAG, 2001. Regional Transportation Plan.

SCAQMD, 1991. Technical Report III-A; C ontrolled Emission Pr ojection Algorithms (CEPA): Program Documentation.

SCAQMD, 1993. Staff Report: Proposed Rules 2000 to 2015 - Regional Clean Air Incentives Market (RECLAIM).
SCAQMD, 1997a. 1994 Air Quality Management Plan.

SCAQMD, 1997b. Appendix III; Current and Future Years Emissions Inventories

SCAQMD, 1999. 1999 Amendments to the 1997 Ozone State Implementation Plan for the South Coast Air Basin

SCAQMD 1997. Effectiveness of Regulation X III – New Source Review. Governing Board Meeting February 14, 1997.

SCAQMD 1998. Report on Effectiveness of Regulation XIII – New Source Review. Governing Board Meeting March 13, 1998.

SCAQMD 1988. Correspondence from Anupom Ganguli of the South Coast Air Quality Management District to Mr. Ray Menebroker, of the California Air Resources Board. February 12, 1998.Appendix III: Base and Future Year Emission Inventories

III-R-2 SCAQMD 1999. Report of the Effectiveness of Regulation XIII – New Source Review. Governing Board Meeting, April 9, 1999.

SCAQMD 2000. Status Report on Regulation XIII – New Source Review. Governing Board Meeting August 18, 2000.

SCAQMD 2001. Status Report on Regulation XIII – New Source Review. Governing Board Meeting November 9, 2001.