NES RESULTS

Summary ofResults

We analyzed the impact of two trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts and the other

for cathode cutout ballasts. The National Energy Savings and the Net Present Value of those

savings to American business and industry are as follows:

Metric Range for Electronic Std. Range for Cathode Cutout Std

Energy Savings (Quads) 1.04-3.61 0.51-2.32

Net Present Value (Billion $) 1.01-5.05 0.22-3.10

The discussion below describes how we developed these results.

Efficiency Levels Analyzed

The Department analyzed the impact of two trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts

and the other for cathode cutout ballasts. We considered the following scenarios for electronic

ballasts: end-users of magnetic ballast T12 systems choose (1) 100% T12 electronic ballasts or

(2) 95% T8 and 5% T12 electronic ballasts, which is representative of present market shares.

Additionally, because of comments received, we also considered two other scenarios. Scenario

(3) assumes that the new/renovation market segment converts all ballasts to electronic, with 100

percent becoming T8 ballasts, starting on the effective date. This segment is assumed to

comprise 63 percent of the total ballast market, based on the current luminaire market. The

remaining 37 percent assumed replacement market has an additional delay of 5 years, after which

these ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95

percent becoming T8 ballasts. Scenario (4) is identical to (3) except the delay for the assumed

replacement market is two years. We considered the following scenarios for cathode cutout

ballasts: end-users choose (1) 100% cathode cutout ballasts and (2) 37% cathode cutout and 63%

electronic ballasts.

Two base case forecasts of shipments of magnetic ballasts without standards were utilized as a

reference case to which the scenarios were compared. Therefore, there are a total of eight

possible electronic ballast standards scenarios as described below. There are also four cathode

cutout standards scenarios as described below.

Base Case: Decreasing Shipments to 2015

In this base case, the magnetic ballast shipments after 1997 are assumed to decrease at the rate at

which most magnetic ballasts declined from 1993 through 1997, reaching a base level by 2015.

This rate of decreasing magnetic ballasts shipments represents a conversion rate to electronic

ballasts of approximately 5 percent per year. The base level represents 10 percent of the

magnetic ballast shipments in 1997 for each ballast class and is carried out to 2030.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67G

NESRESULTS 

Summary of Results 

We analyzed the impact of two trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts and the other 

for cathode cutout ballasts. The National Energy Savings and the Net Present Value of those 

savings to American business and industry are as follows: 

Metric Range for Electronic Std. Range for Cathode Cutout Std 

Energy Savings (Quads) 1.04 - 3.61 0.51 - 2.32 

Net Present Value (Billion $) 1.01 - 5.05 0.22 - 3.10 

The discussion below describes how we developed these results. 

Efficiency Levels Analyzed 

The Department analyzed the impact of two trial standard levels; one was for electronic ballasts 

and the other for cathode cutout ballasts. We considered the following scenarios for electronic 

ballasts: end-users of magnetic ballast T12 systems choose (1) 100% T12 electronic ballasts or 

(2) 95% T8 and 5% T12 electronic ballasts, which is representative of present market shares. 

Additionally, because of comments received, we also considered two other scenarios. Scenario 

(3) assumes that the new/renovation market segment converts all ballasts to electronic, with 100 

percent becoming T8 ballasts, starting on the effective date. This segment is assumed to 

comprise 63 percent of the total ballast market, based on the current luminaire market. The 

remaining 37 percent assumed replacement market has an additional delay of5 years, after which 

these ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 

percent becoming T8 ballasts. Scenario (4) is identical to (3) except the delay for the assumed 

replacement market is two years. We considered the following scenarios for cathode cutout 

ballasts: end-users choose (1) 100% cathode cutout ballasts and (2) 37% cathode cutout and 63% 

electronic ballasts. 

Two base case forecasts of shipments of magnetic ballasts without standards were utilized as a 

reference case to which the scenarios were compared. Therefore, there are a total of eight 

possible electronic ballast standards scenarios as described below. There are also four cathode 

cutout standards scenarios as described below. 

Base Case: Decreasing Shipments to 2015 

In this base case, the magnetic ballast shipments after 1997 are assumed to decrease at the rate at 

which most magnetic ballasts declined from 1993 through 1997, reaching a base level by 2015. 

This rate of decreasing magnetic ballasts shipments represents a conversion rate to electronic 

ballasts of approximately 5 percent per year. The base level represents 10 percent of the 

magnetic ballast shipments in 1997 for each ballast class and is carried out to 2030. 
Base Case: Decreasing Shipments to 2027

In this base case, magnetic ballast shipments are assumed to decrease at a slower rate, reaching

the same base level by 2027. This rate of decreasing magnetic ballasts shipments roughly

represents a conversion rate to electronic ballasts of 3 percent per year.

Electronic Ballast Standards Scenarios

Scenario 1. This scenario assumes that 100 percent of magnetic ballasts are converted to

electronic T12 ballasts. This scenario is intended to model the impacts of minimal compliance

with the standard in regard to consumer choice.

Scenario 2. This scenario assumes that all magnetic ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts,

with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario is

intended to model the trends in the current market where nearly all (95 percent) of electronic

ballasts purchased from 1993 - 1997 have been T8 ballasts.

Scenario 3 . This scenario assumes that the new/renovation luminaire market segment converts

all ballasts to electronic, with 100 percent becoming T8 ballasts, starting on the effective date.

This segment is assumed to comprise 63 percent of the total ballast market, based on the current

luminaire market. The remaining 37 percent assumed replacement market has an additional

delay of 5 years, after which these ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent

becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario allows a differing

impact of the standards on these two market segments by providing an additional adjustment

period for the replacement market users in existing buildings and on lamp manufacturers to

prepare for the new ballast type and market shift.

Scenario 4. This scenario has identical assumptions to Scenario 3, except that the additional

delay period for the replacement market is 2 years. This scenario has the same logic as No. 3,

with a shorter adjustment period.

Each of the above four standard level forecasts is compared with that of the two different base

cases. Forecasts under the "Decreasing Shipments to 2015" base case are denoted as Scenario

IA, 2A, 3A, and 4A. Forecasts runs with the "Decreasing Shipments to 2027" base case are

called Scenario 1B, 2B, 3B, and 4B.

Cathode Cutout Trial Standards

Scenario 5. This scenario assumes that 100 percent of magnetic ballasts are converted to cathode

cutout ballasts. The exception is the F96T12 ballast class, for which there is no cathode cutout

option. These ballasts are assumed to remain as magnetic ballasts under the standards. This

scenario is intended to model the impacts of minimal compliance with the standard in regard to

consumer choice.

Scenario 6. This scenario assumes that the 37 percent replacement market ballasts are converted

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67G

Base Case: Decreasing Shipments to 2027 

In this base case, magnetic ballast shipments are assumed to decrease at a slower rate, reaching 

the same base level by 2027. This rate of decreasing magnetic ballasts shipments roughly 

represents a conversion rate to electronic ballasts of3 percent per year. 

Electronic Ballast Standards Scenarios 

Scenario 1. This scenario assumes that 100 percent of magnetic ballasts are converted to 

electronic T12 ballasts. This scenario is intended to model the impacts of minimal compliance 

with the standard in regard to consumer choice. 

Scenario 2. This scenario assumes that all magnetic ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, 

with 5 percent becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario is 

intended to model the trends in the current market where nearly all (95 percent) of electronic 

ballasts purchased from 1993 - 1997 have been T8 ballasts. 

Scenario 3. This scenario assumes that the new/renovation luminaire market segment converts 

all ballasts to electronic, with 100 percent becoming T8 ballasts, starting on the effective date. 

This segment is assumed to comprise 63 percent of the total ballast market, based on the current 

luminaire market. The remaining 37 percent assumed replacement market has an additional 

delay of 5 years, after which these ballasts are converted to electronic ballasts, with 5 percent 

becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent becoming T8 ballasts. This scenario allows a differing 

impact of the standards on these two market segments by providing an additional adjustment 

period for the replacement market users in existing buildings and on lamp manufacturers to 

prepare for the new ballast type and market shift. 

Scenario 4. This scenario has identical assumptions to Scenario 3, except that the additional 

delay period for the replacement market is 2 years. This scenario has the same logic as No.3, 

with a shorter adjustment period. 

Each of the above four standard level forecasts is compared with that of the two different base 

cases. Forecasts under the "Decreasing Shipments to 2015" base case are denoted as Scenario 

lA, 2A, 3A, and 4A. Forecasts runs with the "Decreasing Shipments to 2027" base case are 

called Scenario IB, 2B, 3B, and 4B. 

Cathode Cutout Trial Standards 

Scenario 5. This scenario assumes that 100 percent of magnetic ballasts are converted to cathode 

cutout ballasts. The exception is the F96Tl2 ballast class, for which there is no cathode cutout 

option. These ballasts are assumed to remain as magnetic ballasts under the standards. This 

scenario is intended to model the impacts of minimal compliance with the standard in regard to 

consumer choice. 

Scenario 6. This scenario assumes that the 37 percent replacement market ballasts are converted 
to cathode cutout ballasts, and the 63 percent new/renovation market ballasts are converted to

electronic ballasts, with 5 percent of the electronic ballasts becoming T12 ballasts and 95 percent

becoming T8 ballasts.

Forecasts run with the Decreasing Shipments to 2015 base case are denoted as 5A and 6A.

Forecasts run with the Decreasing Shipments to 2027 base case are called 5B and 6B.

Energy Savings

To estimate the energy savings through the year 2030 due to revised standards, the energy

consumption of ballasts under the base case is compared to the energy consumption of ballasts

complying with the standard.

The results presented in the Table use the AEO Reference Case forecast. The Table show the

energy savings, energy savings with lighting/HVAC impacts, energy cost savings, equipment

costs, and net present value for each of the standards scenarios.

Electronic Standards

For Units Sold from 2003 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $)

SCENARIO

Scen 1A

T12

Decr201S

Scen IB

T12

Decr2027

Scen 2A

T12/T8

Decr2015

Seen 2B

T121T8

Decr2027

Seen 3A

Decr2015

Seen 3B

Decr2027

Seen 4A

Decr201S

Seen 4B

Decr2027

Total Quads Saved 1.04 1.84 2.04 3.61 1.69 3.19 1.90 3.46

Total Quads Saved w/HVAC* 1.11 1.96 2.17 3.84 1.8 3.39 2.02 3.68

Total Exa'oules Saved 1.10 1.94 2.15 3.81 1.79 3.36 2.01 3.66

Total Exajoules Saved w/ HVAC* 1.17 2.07 2.29 4.05 1.90 3.57 2.13 3.88

Total Benefit 2.02 3.22 3.98 6.33 3.14 5.29 3.60 5.90

Total Equipment Cost 1.01 1.62 0.80 1.27 0.61 1.04 0.70 1.16

Net Present Value 1.01 1.60 3.18 5.05 2.53 4.25 2.90 4.74

*For energy savings only; total benefit and net present value do not include HVAC savings.

Cathode Cutout Standards

For Units Sold from 2003 to 2030

Discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $)

Scen 5A Scen 5B Scen 6A Scen 6B

SCENARIO 100% CC 100% CC 37% CC 37% CC

Decr2015 Decr2027 Decr2015 Decr2027

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67G

to cathode cutout ballasts, and the 63 percent new/renovation market ballasts are converted to 

electronic ballasts, with 5 percent of the electronic ballasts becoming TI2 ballasts and 95 percent 

becoming T8 ballasts. 

Forecasts run with the Decreasing Shipments to 2015 base case are denoted as 5A and 6A. 

Forecasts run with the Decreasing Shipments to 2027 base case are called 5B and 6B. 

Energy Savings 

To estimate the energy savings through the year 2030 due to revised standards, the energy 

consumption of ballasts under the base case is compared to the energy consumption of ballasts 

complying with the standard. 

The results presented in the Table use the ABO Reference Case forecast. The Table show the 

energy savings, energy savings with lightingIHV AC impacts, energy cost savings, equipment 

costs, and net present value for each of the standards scenarios . 

....... ...... . ... :·,.;··!~t·~::J . ". . ... :< ':. ..,.::~:.: . .., . . ': ." . .... 

ElectronicStandards . 

For Units Sold from 2003 to 2030 

Discounted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $) 

ScenIA ScenIB Scen2A Scen2B Scen3A 

SCENARIO TI2 TI2 T12ffS T12ffS 

Decr20I5 Decr2027 Decr2015 Decr2027 Decr2015 

Total Quads Saved 1.04 1.84 2.04 3.61 1.69 

Total Quads Saved wlHV AC* 1.11 1.96 2.17 3.84 1.8 

Total Exajoules Saved 1.10 1.94 2.15 3.81 1.79 

Total Exajoules Saved wi HV AC* 1.17 2.07 2.29 4.05 1.90 

Total Benefit 2.02 3.22 3.98 6.33 3.14 

Total Equipment Cost 1.01 1.62 0.80 1.27 0.61 

Net Present Value 1.01 1.60 3.18 5.05 2.53 

*For energy savings only; total benefit and net present value do not include HV AC savings. 

SCENARIO 

For Units Sold from 2003 to 2030 

Disco~nted at 7% to 1997 (in billion 1997 $) 

Seen5A 

lOO%CC 

Decr2015 

Seen5B 

lOO%CC 

Decr2027 

. . 

Scen3B Scen4A Scen4B 

Decr2027 Decr20I5 Decr2027 

3.19 

3.39 

3.36 

3.57 

5.29 

1.04 

4.25 

Seen 6A 

37%CC 

Decr2015 

1.90 

2.02 

2.01 

2.13 

3.60 

0.70 

2.90 

3.46 

3.68 

3.66 

3.88 

5.90 

1.16 

4.74 

Seen6B 

37%CC 

Decr2027 
Oa u:^ e CILuoun1 CJ wLm w 5

Total Quads Saved 0.51 0.91 1.31 2.32

Total Quads Saved w/HVAC* 0.55 0.97 1.39 2.47

Total Exajoules Saved 0.54 0.96 1.38 2.45

Total Exajoules Saved w/HVAC* 0.58 1.02 1.47 2.60

Total Benefits 1.00 1.59 2.55 4.06

Total Equipment Cost 0.78 1.26 0.60 0.96

Net Present Value . 0.22 0.33 1.96 3.10

Energy savings from the electronic ballast standards scenarios range from about 1 Quad (1.1

exajoules) to 3.6 Quads (3.8 exajoules) of source energy. The energy savings increase when

using the slower decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. Energy savings for Scenario 2 with T8

electronic ballasts are almost double those for Scenario 1 with T12 electronic ballasts. For

Scenario 3, the five-year delay period causes a savings reduction of around 15 percent from that

of Scenario 2, while for Scenario 4, the two-year delay period results in a savings reduction of

about 5 percent. For the cathode cutout standards scenarios, energy savings range from 0.5

Quads (0.5 exajoules) to 2.3 Quads (2.5 exajoules). The Scenario 6 savings from partial

conversion to electronic ballasts increases the savings by around a factor of 2.5 over those of

Scenario 5. The additional HVAC savings increase the total energy savings for all levels by 6.25

percent.

Net Present Value

The Table also shows net present value, which is a measure of the net savings to American

business and industry from these standards. It is the difference between additional equipment

costs and electricity cost savings. The NPV for the electronic ballast standards scenarios ranges

from about 1 billion to 5 billion dollars ($1997). NPV increases when using the slower

decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. NPVs for Scenario 2 with T8 electronic ballasts are more

than triple those for Scenario 1 with T12 electronic ballasts. For Scenario 3, the five-year delay

period causes an NPV reduction of around 15 - 20 percent from Scenario 2, depending on the

shipments forecast. For Scenario 4, the 2-year phase-in period results in an NPV reduction of

about 5 -10 percent from Scenario 2.

For the cathode cutout standards scenarios, NPV ranges from 0.2 to 3 billion dollars. The

Scenario 6 savings from partial conversion to electronic ballasts increases the NPV by about a

factor of 9. Note that AC energy cost savings are not included in any of the NPV

calculations.

EE-RM-97-500 COMMENT 67G

<.\' ";.' .... , :"".i.; 

<:C~th~~CufoiItStaBld~n'ds .,' ".,:. ,:: .... ""," .. :.'. . 

"',,;; ". .... ,: .. :.'.: .. ....> .'. .' 

Total Quads Saved 0.51 0.91 1.31 2.32 

Total Quads Saved wlHV AC* 0.55 0.97 1.39 2.47 

Total Exajoules Saved 0.54 0.96 1.38 2.45 

Total Exajoules Saved wlHV AC* 0.58 1.02 1.47 2.60 

Total Benefits 1.00 1.59 2.55 4.06 

Total Equipment Cost 0.78 1.26 0.60 0.96 

Net Present Value .0.22 0.33 1.96 3.10 

Energy savings from the electronic ballast standards scenarios range from about 1 Quad (1.1 

exajoules) to 3.6 Quads (3.8 exajoules) of source energy. The energy savings increase when 

using the slower decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. Energy savings for Scenario 2 with T8 

electronic ballasts are almost double those for Scenario 1 with T12 electronic ballasts. For 

Scenario 3, the five-year delay period causes a savings reduction of around 15 percent from that 

of Scenario 2, while for Scenario 4, the two-year delay period results in a savings reduction of 

about 5 percent. For the cathode cutout standards scenarios, energy savings range from 0.5 

Quads (0.5 exajoules) to 2.3 Quads (2.5 exajoules). The Scenario 6 savings from partial 

conversion to electronic ballasts increases the savings by around a factor of 2.5 over those of 

Scenario 5. The additional HV AC savings increase the total energy savings for all levels by 6.25 

percent. 

Net Present Value 

The Table also shows net present value, which is a measure of the net savings to American 

business and industry from these standards. It is the difference between additional equipment 

~osts and electricity cost savings. The NPV for the electronic ballast standards scenarios ranges 

from about 1 billion to 5 billion dollars ($1997). NPV increases when using the slower 

decreasing shipments forecast to 2027. NPV s for Scenario 2 with T8 electronic ballasts are more 

than triple those for Scenario 1 with TI2 electronic ballasts. For Scenario 3, the five-year delay 

period causes an NPV reduction of around 15 - 20 percent from Scenario 2, depending on the 

. shipments forecast. For Scenario 4, the 2-year phase-in period results in an NPV reduction of 

about 5 -10 percent from Scenario 2. 

For the cathode cutout standards scenarios, NPV ranges from 0.2 to 3 billion dollars. The 

Scenario 6 savings from partial conversion to electronic ballasts increases the NPV by about a 

factor of9. Note that HV AC energy cost savings are not included in any of the NPV 

calculations.